Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
216 AM CDT Sat May 21 2022 Our secondary surge of cooler air is currently moving into the southwestern Texas Panhandle as of 2 am. Some lower clouds are also expanding behind the cold front and these are expected to move into the region a few hours prior to sunrise this morning. Surface flow will help to keep surface moisture in place over the region as the expected upper level trough moves eastward across the Rockies bringing our first of hopefully several chances for rainfall. Initially rainfall will likely be on the lighter side as the main lifting mechanism will be isentropic lifting ahead of the upper trough. Some showers could begin to have a few rumbles of thunder as the upper trough moves closer to the FA and begins to stall.
1025 PM MDT Fri May 20 2022 20z surface analysis had trough from central MN into southeast WY with 2-4mb/3hr pressure rises behind it on the SD plains. Popcorn showers over much of the CWA under upper trough axis from southern MB into UT. Tonight, upper trough axis shifts slowly southeast, but mean upper trough remains across central Canada into the Rockies. Should see another round of showers with some snow over the higher elevations of the Black Hills where minor accumulations will occur.
Near the surface, high pressure extends from the Northern High Plains southward into northeastern Colorado. The cold front that moved through the area overnight will continue to push southward leading to northerly winds felt across western Kansas.
A warm front will lift north through wrn and ncntl Nebraska Sunday. Winds will be light with 1030mb high pressure overhead. The low 850-300mb RH supports clear skies and good potential for radiational cooling. This forecast is cooler than the 50 percentile of the NBM but warmer than the 25 percentile.
639 AM EDT Sat May 21 2022 A cold front will stall out in the Wabash valley early this morning.
/issued 216 AM CDT Sat May 21 2022/ Our secondary surge of cooler air is currently moving into the southwestern Texas Panhandle as of 2 am. Some lower clouds are also expanding behind the cold front and these are expected to move into the region a few hours prior to sunrise this morning. Surface flow will help to keep surface moisture in place over the region as the expected upper level trough moves eastward across the Rockies bringing our first of hopefully several chances for rainfall. Initially rainfall will likely be on the lighter side as the main lifting mechanism will be isentropic lifting ahead of the upper trough. Some showers could begin to have a few rumbles of thunder as the upper trough moves closer to the FA and begins to stall.
622 AM CDT Sat May 21 2022 (Today) Latest water vapor imagery shows a trough extending over the Plains, with ridging off the Atlantic Coast. A surface cold front extends from its parent low over northeastern Canada, south- southwestward through the Great Lakes and into northern Texas. Southwesterly flow will persist through the day as the TN Valley remains in between the trough to our west and the ridge to our east. Afternoon highs will climb into the lower 90s once again, which is a few degrees above forecast convective temperatures.
Temperatures will be on the increase starting today as high pressure builds over the Northeast Pacific.
This could allow for greater radiational cooling and temperatures dropping into the low to mid 30's. Tomorrow, the high pressure remains over the area along with the cloud cover. With the southeasterly winds during the day and precipitation overnight, lows will be a bit warmer in the lower 40's across most of the area. Thu-Sat: Long range guidance indicates a pattern transition at the beginning of this period -- a transition in which cyclonic flow aloft is quickly supplanted by an amplifying upper level ridge over the Rockies/High Plains.
Current surface analysis places secondary cold front sliding through the upper midwest, with high settling along the lee of the Rockies. Upper level analysis places low over Hudson Bay, with trough extending off to the southwest. This has kept temperatures up a bit over many locations, but over the areas where a brief period of clearing has occurred, temperatures have dropped either to or a bit below freezing. Thereafter, a bit milder temperatures are expected for the day as a little weak ridging develops.
With high temperatures climbing into the low/mid 90s, 3000-4000 j/kg of cape and steep mid level lapse rates, some of these storms could be strong to severe this afternoon into early evening. The thunderstorm activity will diminish by mid/late evening, but a cold front will move into the Delta overnight.
A very broad upper level trough and slowing moving cold front will begin to approach the area from the west today. The cold front will move through and stall to the south.
521 AM MDT Sat May 21 2022 Temperatures at the top of the hour are mostly below the freezing mark across the CWA. Regardless, could see clouds begin to clear up before daybreak which could lead to a short window of below freezing temperatures. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected today with clouds clearing this morning. Moist southeast flow will increase Sunday morning as increased lift moves over the area along with lee troughing.
317 AM MDT Sat May 21 2022 A low pressure system moving out of the Pacific Northwest will keep a chance of rain and snow showers, with mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms, across much of North Central and Southwest Montana this weekend.
Today: Broad upper trough over the CONUS will slowly progress east and flatten today.
334 AM MDT Sat May 21 2022 Temperatures at the top of the hour are mostly below the freezing mark across the CWA. Regardless, could see clouds begin to clear up before daybreak which could lead to a short window of below freezing temperatures. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected today with clouds clearing this morning. Moist southeast flow will increase Sunday morning as increased lift moves over the area along with lee troughing.
Northerly winds continue today as upper level troughing continues over the area.
630 AM EDT Sat May 21 2022 Central NC will remain under deep southerly flow over the weekend, with high pressure to the east and a cold front approaching from the west.
923 AM EDT Sat May 21 2022 A cold front will stall out in the Wabash valley early this morning.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 69 83 66 78 / 10 20 80 70 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 69 83 64 76 / 20 20 90 70 60 Oak Ridge, TN 89 68 82 62 76 / 10 20 90 60 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 64 82 62 74 / 50 20 90 60 60.
943 AM CDT Sat May 21 2022 Temperatures have warmed above freezing across the area this morning, thus have let the Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory expire. A broad trough pattern over the areas today will bring isolated to scattered rain showers. Current surface analysis places secondary cold front sliding through the upper midwest, with high settling along the lee of the Rockies. Upper level analysis places low over Hudson Bay, with trough extending off to the southwest. This has kept temperatures up a bit over many locations, but over the areas where a brief period of clearing has occurred, temperatures have dropped either to or a bit below freezing. Thereafter, a bit milder temperatures are expected for the day as a little weak ridging develops.
with short wave troughs tracking through. along with an Atlantic high pressure ridge axis stretching west across northern FL will remain place though the day.
550 AM MDT Sat May 21 2022 Broad upper trough remains across much of NOAM, with anomalously cold air over much of the northern CONUS. Although it will be slightly warmer, some light snow accums can be expected once again in the higher elevations of the Black Hills. Slightly warmer conds can be expected today, with highs in the 40s and some 50s.
Today through Sunday night Troughing over the West continues through the weekend with fairly light winds out of the north-northeast and mainly dry conditions across the CWA.
A few light showers showing up near Winnipeg to Brandon with 500 mb short wave trough. For the upcoming day, the 500 mb trough will remain over the area. There is one short wave trough passing thru the fcst area at 08z and another elongated 500 mb wave upstream moving in southern SK and Manitoba. Sunnier and a bit warmer on Sunday as winds westerly 10 to 20 mph. After that, it looks like a very gradual transition to short wave ridging as a deeper trough heads into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys.
843 AM MDT Sat May 21 2022 Satellite imagery shows cyclonic northwest flow aloft associated with trof over the northern plains. High temperatures today will be limited to the lower 50s. Mid level heights will gradually rise this afternoon as upper troughing slides east, so showers will wind down quickly by early evening.
638 AM CDT Sat May 21 2022 (Today and tonight) As of this hour, a cold front was located just north of Interstate 20. Further south, highs look to reach the mid to upper 80s across the Concho Valley, and possibly the low 90s along the I-10 corridor.
Will also let the Freeze Warning continue this morning, but it looks like the impact of freezing temperatures has been offset by continued cloud cover and temperatures that have hovered near to slightly above freezing most of this morning. The impacts of freezing temperatures may be more localized and confined to those low lying areas. Decreasing clouds later this evening could produce a broader area of freezing temperatures across the plains.
921 AM EDT Sat May 21 2022 A cold front will stall out in the Wabash valley early this morning.
625 AM EDT Sat May 21 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge in the sern U. and a broad trough over the western U. This will be in conjunction with a deep open mid and lower-level trough over the Great Lakes that morning. Convective sky cover should decrease across the central parts of the UP by early Sunday night as the high pressure shifts nearly overhead.
525 AM MDT Sat May 21 2022 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION A low pressure system moving out of the Pacific Northwest will keep a chance of rain and snow showers, with mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms, across much of North Central and Southwest Montana this weekend.
322 AM MDT Sat May 21 2022 MORNING DISCUSSION: Stray showers are expected to linger in our area at times today as the remaining moisture from a low pressure continues to move out of the area.
443 AM CDT Sat May 21 2022 Current surface analysis places secondary cold front sliding through the upper midwest, with high settling along the lee of the Rockies. Upper level analysis places low over Hudson Bay, with trough extending off to the southwest. This has kept temperatures up a bit over many locations, but over the areas where a brief period of clearing has occurred, temperatures have dropped either to or a bit below freezing. Thereafter, a bit milder temperatures are expected for the day as a little weak ridging develops.
The western Atlantic ridge axis shifts to NOFL, resulting in a light- moderate SE-SSE flow over ECFL. Lower PWAT air associated with the mid level reflection of the Atlantic ridge expanding west will start to infiltrate the SE CWA by this afternoon, so have lower POPs there to 40, trending up to 80 percent from I-4 northward.
After a topsy-turvy few days when daytime highs in lower elevations ranged from the lower 60s to upper 80s, this weekend will bring a break from those wild swings with spring weather favorable for most outdoor activities and mostly clear skies. Low pressure over the Pacific Northwest moving southeast to Wyoming by Sunday night, combined with a high pressure ridge off the west coast will keep a general north to northeast surface flow and northwest mid-level flow over eastern CA-western NV. Daytime temperatures will climb by about 10 degrees above yesterday's levels, with highs mainly in the lower 70s for western NV/eastern CA valleys and 60s near the Sierra. The next couple of nights will see decent cooling with a dry air mass in place, producing lows mainly in the 30s, except 40s for urban areas/typically warmer valleys and thermal belts.
Weak upper level trough over the area today will shift east tonight. Weak upper level ridge moving through Sunday.
Today and Sunday: Upper level high pressure lurking offshore continues to inch closer to the coast.
305 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022 High pressure remains off the southeast coast through Sunday. A cold front moves across the area Sunday night, then stalls across the Carolinas through mid week.
Current temperatures are in the upper 70s to low 80s with dewpoints already reaching the lower 70s in many places. A very broad upper level trough and slowing moving cold front will begin to approach the area from the west today. The cold front will move through and stall to the south.
The atmosphere is already quite unstable across our region late this morning as temperatures have warmed well into the 80s with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s inland and even in the mid to upper 70s along the coastal interface.
The weaker winds and mostly clear skies also resulted in cooler temperatures this morning.
202 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022 A cold frontal passage will continue to move through the region.
Diurnally- induced showers will dissipate this evening near/west of I-29 as drier mid level air entrains in and skies begin to clear behind the upper trough axis. Temperatures are struggling to rise above the lower to mid 50s this afternoon. Chilly weather continues overnight across the region and in the vicinity of the upper trough axis aloft. This nearly ideal radiative cooling regime will be favorable for frost development across the region, so stayed on the colder side of model guidance for nighttime lows - dropping to the lower to mid 30s. Despite the cold start to the day, Sunday will be notably warmer than the previous few days as weak upper ridging slides through.
Tonight and Sunday, Canadian high pressure will be building into the area which will allow skies to continue to clear out. 2) Below normal temperatures for much of the week with warmer temperatures for Memorial Day weekend.
Visible satellite imagery currently shows the cold front across North Texas. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop around midnight and gradually move southward with the progression of the cold front. Despite the passage of the cold front, temperatures are expected to remain warm tomorrow. With the expected precipitation and passage of the cold front, temperatures tonight and tomorrow night are expected to drop into the lower to mid 70s, providing some relief from our recent mild nights.
329 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022 Key Messages: - Cooler than normal temperatures expected through much of the week.
The low will continue to move north-northeast and as it does it will drag a cold front closer and closer to the forecast area. The associated cold front responsible for the showers and storms is expected to start moving into the forecast area later tonight and quickly pass through before exiting Sunday afternoon. Once the front exits the area late Sunday, high pressure returns the Bluegrass State and drying the region out to start the work week. However, conditions will begin to dry out some as high pressure slowly drifts across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes regions.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed a nearly stalled cold front stretch from the mid-MS Valley to the eastern Great Lakes. High pressure was situated over the northern and central Plains. Min temperatures to range from the lower to middle 30s north-central WI, to the lower 40s east-central WI.
Strong high pressure remains in place during the day Sunday, but the intensity of the cold air aloft lessens quite a bit.
147 PM MDT Sat May 21 2022 A low pressure system moving out of the Pacific Northwest will keep a chance of rain and snow showers, with mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms, across the region this weekend with better chances across Southwest Montana.
346 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022 High pressure remains off the southeast coast through Sunday. A cold front moves across the area Sunday night, then stalls across the Carolinas through mid week.
With CAA slowly moving eastward over us today and tonight, expect highs in the low to mid 50s in the interior and south, and upper 40s near Lake Superior. On Sunday we couldn't rule out some very light showers or sprinkles with afternoon instability over the south half but dry air in the low levels will prevent a lot of the rain from reaching ground. Sunday will be the coldest night over the next several days as the high pressure moves overhead, winds become light and skies clear. Widespread low in the low 30s can be expected, especially away from the shorelines where frost is likely. Ensembles generally have negative height anomalies with troughing over the central U. Thereafter the troughing looks to kick east with ridging developing over the eastern half of the U.
(This evening through Sunday) Strong late spring cold front that moved through yesterday and overnight has brought a much cooler airmass into the area.
257 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022 Water vapor satellite imagery shows a long wave trough traversing into the central and northern plains.
200 PM MDT Sat May 21 2022 19z surface analysis had high over MT with trough from northeast SD into southeast WY. Water vapour matinee had mean trough over central Canada into the northwest CONUS.
935 AM MDT Sat May 21 2022 MORNING DISCUSSION: Morning update: Upper level trof moving through the area and bringing a few snow/rain showers to the area this morning.
Still looks like most of the action, or lack thereof, will be in the late evening as the cold front draws closer to Middle TN.
Showers have been filling in again this afternoon and expected to continue on and off tonight until the mid level trough currently over nrn Plains swings through while flattening early Sunday.
330 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022 Ridging aloft continues through the weekend.
1124 AM MDT Sat May 21 2022 Broad upper trough remains across much of NOAM, with anomalously cold air over much of the northern CONUS. Although it will be slightly warmer, some light snow accums can be expected once again in the higher elevations of the Black Hills. Slightly warmer conds can be expected today, with highs in the 40s and some 50s.
245 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022 A cold frontal passage will continue to move through the region.
However, the frost advisory area does have the highest potential of at least some frost toward morning. A cool ridge of high pressure will move overhead tonight, and shift to the southeast on Sunday. Temperatures on Sunday will be a few degrees warmer than today, but still well below normal.
Temperatures look to fall back into the low 30s and as a result looking at another night of frost headlines, with this being a more true setup for frost potential. After a cold start to Sunday, westerly surface winds and partly sunny skies, alongside weak 500 hPa ridging are expected to introduce a rapid warm up back into the upper 50s.
(Through tonight ) Cold front continues to push into far SE OK and NW AR this afternoon An uptick in showers and storms has been observed in the vicinity of the boundary this afternoon. (Tomorrow through Saturday) Settled but cool conditions will prevail Sunday with weak high pressure in control.
127 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge in the sern U. and a broad trough over the western U. This will be in conjunction with a deep open mid and lower-level trough over the Great Lakes that morning. Convective sky cover should decrease across the central parts of the UP by early Sunday night as the high pressure shifts nearly overhead.
Cool and showery conditions will persist for the Northern Rockies this weekend as a low pressure system remains in place. The circulation associated with the low is currently centered over the Idaho/Washington/Oregon border and it's causing showers and thunderstorms to develop over north central Idaho. Sunday will be slightly warmer compared to today, but still be slightly below seasonal readings. The low pressure circulation appears to be over Lemhi county and southwest Montana by Sunday afternoon, this will be the main area of focus for convection development.
A broad trough continues to move across the state today and bringing with it mostly cloudy skies and scattered rain and brief snow showers. Most areas will see lows around freezing, while areas in the south central and southwest look to get into the 20s. There could still be some mid to high level clouds that might impact this forecast, although temperatures are overall expected to be cooler tonight. This will bring overall dry conditions, with slightly warmer, yet still below normal, temperatures in the 50s. With high pressure generally in the area, winds will be light for Sunday as well.
1213 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022 (The rest of today ) Cold front continues to make steady progress southeastward and extends from far SE OK through far NW AR with an additional outflow boundary from early morning storms extending from east central OK into the higher terrain of NW AR. East of the cold front and south of the outflow will mark the more unstable warm sector which will gradually be replaced across the forecast area through the afternoon with the advancing front.
(The rest of today ) Cold front continues to make steady progress southeastward and extends from far SE OK through far NW AR with an additional outflow boundary from early morning storms extending from east central OK into the higher terrain of NW AR. East of the cold front and south of the outflow will mark the more unstable warm sector which will gradually be replaced across the forecast area through the afternoon with the advancing front.
430 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022 High pressure will slide east of the area tonight as a weak front stalls across the north. Low pressure will lift up to our west on Sunday then pull a strong cold front across the area Sunday evening.
Instability will increase this afternoon with daytime heating, and the trough will enhance shower and isolated thunderstorm development today, gradually tapering off this evening. Most of the activity will remain in the higher terrain, but a few showers and thunderstorms may move into the lower valleys late this afternoon and early this evening.
A cold front crosses Sunday, with more storms expected. The upper ridge that supported our warm days is currently centered over the Atlantic, just off the coastal Carolinas. Several disturbances will work upstream of the ridge returning clouds across the region this afternoon. A second system moving from the northwest will bring a cold front through on Sunday. Cold front should be to the east of the CWA Sunday night, with just a few lingering showers/storms in its wake, mainly in eastern zones.
Eyes turn to the north late in the day where showers and tstms are expected to develop along a cold front that'll be sagging into northern parts of the region during the late evening hours and eventually closer to the coast heading into the sunrise hours Sunday. That said, some of the higher resolution models are suggesting the potential for a re- strengthening band of shra/tstms making their way toward the metro & coastal areas from the northeast in the 9-13z timeframe.
As the surface shifts eastward across the central Plains and extension of the ridge remains in place across the forecast area overnight winds will veer slightly and wind speeds will begin to diminish later tonight.
1246 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022 (Today and tonight) As of this hour, a cold front was located just north of Interstate 20. Further south, highs look to reach the mid to upper 80s across the Concho Valley, and possibly the low 90s along the I-10 corridor.
Highest potential for showers and storms today will be late this evening through the overnight hours in the vicinity of a cold front.