Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACNW WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE ISOLD SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES LATER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING BY SUNDAY MORNING OVER THIS AREA WHICH PROMPTED A FREEZE WARNING.
ANOTHER ROUND STILL IN STORE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER SUNDAY AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTH AND HEADS EAST TO ALBUQUERQUE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SPLITTING TROUGH FORMS A CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS BY MIDDAY SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL AREAS AS THE WRAPAROUND FLOW NORTH OF THE LOW ENCOUNTERS THE SPLIT TROUGH AXIS PUSHING IN FROM UT. COOLER AIR COULD PUSH LOW TEMPS DOWN NEAR FREEZING IN THE CORTEZ AND DURANGO AREAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A CONCERN TO ORCHARD AND VINEYARDS IN THOSE AREAS.
824 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE FA THIS EVENING. SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY TO EASTERN COUNTIES BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A 700MB TROUGH LAGGING BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IS BRINGING ONE LAST ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST SIDE THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TO THE AREA, WITH CLOUDS MOST NUMEROUS FROM THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS WESTWARD.
A FINE FINISH TO A ROUGH START OF THE DAY AS A WEAK TROF AND TRAILING DRY LINE STALLED NEAR LUFKIN. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A RIDGE FOR SUNDAY AS THE PATTERN RE-LOADS AND TROUGH DIGS BACK IN OVER THE ROCKIES. SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO RETURN SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND ACTIVITY DEVELOPS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION.
HAVE ISSUES A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 1100 PM FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A NEWNAN TO STOCKBRIDGE TO EATONTON TO WRENS.
SCT CU FIELD TO DEVELOP AFTER 26/15Z WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OF THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THE FILLING TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AR AND EAST CENTRAL OK.
UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FONT TONIGHT MAY PROMOTE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY DAWN.
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. COLDER CONDITIONS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT BUT WITH FROST NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AS THE CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE FRINGE OF THIS HIGH WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WITH THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM REMAINING TO THE EAST AND WITH UPPER LEVEL WEAKER FLOW/RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING TO THE NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS ELEVATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR KANSAS CITY MO. THIS WILL SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF A CLEAR AND TRANQUIL PERIOD OF RIDGE INFLUENCE.
A COLD FRONT ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTHWARD.
The upper level trough moved into northeast KS early this morning, stalled and pivoted, and has since moved southeast into Missouri. A few of these showers were lingering in eastern KS on the west flank of the low. The breeze and clouds will limit fog potential and will keep temperatures a bit warmer in the mid 40s for lows. Sunshine would allow temperatures to climb into the lower to middle 60s, while the northeast to easterly breeze will persist through the day.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD AND LOCATED NEAR INTERSTATE 40 ACROSS E OK.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON INTO EARLY SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER SUNDAY WITH A THREAT OF RAIN MAINLY NEAR THE COAST.
A A WEAK WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE LIES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. A STRONG AND DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONE CENTERED ALONG THE WEST CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEASTWARD. WITH A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE LYING NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS EXPECTED TO SAG INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS OVERNIGHT. A CUMULUS CLOUD LINE BASED AT 020 WILL ATTEMPT TO FORM IN THE LEE OF THE LOWER KEYS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
1145 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015 An upper level low center was located over northern Missouri this afternoon, forcing scattered showers over central Missouri. With the upper low exiting the Ozarks, we should remain precipitation free. A large scale trough across the western U. will evolve into a quasi-closed off upper level low. This low may create some rain for the Ozarks, but this is quite uncertain.
THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SPLITTING TROUGH FORMS A CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS BY MIDDAY SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL AREAS AS THE WRAPAROUND FLOW NORTH OF THE LOW ENCOUNTERS THE SPLIT TROUGH AXIS PUSHING IN FROM UT. COOLER AIR COULD PUSH LOW TEMPS DOWN NEAR FREEZING IN THE CORTEZ AND DURANGO AREAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A CONCERN TO ORCHARD AND VINEYARDS IN THOSE AREAS.
LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLY TYPE WEATHER HAVE DOMINATED THE OUTLOOK AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST ABUNDANT SATURATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE NOTED OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA FOR MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THIS AREA SHOWS MUCH LESS SATURATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO. WITH A WELL AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS ON EITHER SIDE. ERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE CWA SITS IN BETWEEN HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN PLAINS.
945 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND STALL IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA BEFORE STALLING IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG UPPER FLOW ALONG THE WEST COAST AND RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. WILL RESULT IN A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO BY LATE SUNDAY. THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH/LOW MAY RESULT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT LIFTING SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AK /ISSUED 248 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/ THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE WARM FRONT WAS EXTENDING WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE EAST COAST AND THE GULF OF ALASKA. WHILE A MODEST RIDGE WILL SET UP FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO JAMES BAY.
915 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 OHIO VALLEY LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTH TONIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. EVAPORATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN WV/MD TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S. SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN SUNDAY UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING.
CLOUDS HAVE MOVED MOSTLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER AS DRIER AIR HAS BEEN COMING IN FROM THE EAST UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. AND IT HAS THE HIGHER RH VALUES SLOWLY MOVING WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. DROPPING DOWN BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO COME IN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ENTERING CENTRAL ND.
/ISSUED 219 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/ THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE STORMS AND WIND TO THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS QUICKLY MOVED OFF TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY. BEHIND IT HAVE BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST GETS HERE. THIS TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER NM SUNDAY AND SLOWLY WOBBLES ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT UPPER RIDGE RETURNS WITH DRY WX FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
1123 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 12Z UA ANALYSIS HAD A CLOSED LOW NEAR KSTJ WITH A LLJ JET FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL BE SEEN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. QUITE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
DECREASING CLOUDINESS TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TO THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY AFFECTED BY WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY. THAT TEMPERATURES MAY DROP NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ONCE AGAIN.
CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB THAT WAS OVER NERN KS AT 12Z CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO IL. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDED FROM WRN KS AND ERN CO UP INTO THE DAKOTAS. A TROUGH STRETCHED FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN WA STATE DOWN INTO CA WITH 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO 60 METERS. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ALOFT. THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL HELP FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY 18Z SUNDAY.
/ISSUED 219 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015/ The upper low that brought the storms and wind to the area yesterday has quickly moved off to the Mississippi River Valley today. Behind it have brief ridging aloft before the next upper trough over the Intermountain West gets here. This trough develops into a cut off low over NM Sunday and slowly wobbles across the region for the next couple of days. After that upper ridge returns with dry wx for the rest of the week.
ONE SLIGHT EXCEPTION WE'LL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON (AND PROBABLY WON'T MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE AVIATION-WISE) IS THAT SOME OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS DEPICTING THIN BAND OF --SHRA MOVING INLAND FROM THE COAST 14-18Z.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST WY. WITH COLD FRONT BACK INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WY. AND WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD AND WESTERN NEB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN IL. KUDX RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE WARM FRONT. FORECAST PROFILES SHOW EVEN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS REMAINING AS RAIN LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. AS DEVELOPING LOW WITHIN THE UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. WITH THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO OCCUR SUNDAY.
WITH UPPER LOW FOLLOWING SLOWLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. BEST DYNAMICS FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS/CONVECTION WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES BASED ON THE ESE FLOW OVER THE CWA WITH RIDGING NORTH AND LOW SETTING UP TO OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. INFLUENCE OF RIDGE TO THE NORTH INCREASES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WARMEST EAST DUE TO RIDGE INFLUENCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40-RANGE.
700 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 12Z UA ANALYSIS HAD A CLOSED LOW NEAR KSTJ WITH A LLJ JET FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL BE SEEN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. QUITE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
1206 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. EVAPORATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN WV/MD TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S. SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN SUNDAY UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING.
AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT, A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO NEBRASKA WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO KANSAS, WITH UPSLOPE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING. THIS COOLER UPSTREAM AIRMASS WAS ALREADY MOIST, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MOVES EVEN CLOSER AND BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF, THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAD BEEN SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND OVER THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL SURFACE.
/ISSUED 235 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/ CURRENTLY THE MIDSOUTH WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A SHEARING UPPER LOW IN MISSOURI AND A DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE GULF COAST. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH AND EASTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A DESCENDING COLD FRONT.
LOOK FOR THE CELLS TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE SE'WD, WHILE IFR/MVFR CIGS BEGIN TO EDGE CLOSER TO THE MID STATE IN THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CEILINGS LOWERING.
747 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 OHIO VALLEY LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTH TONIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. THE BEST DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT IS PROGGED TO EXIT AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST. SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN SUNDAY UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING.
WEAK TROUGH SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA HAS BROUGHT NORTH WINDS TO ALL OF THE KBRO AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DYNAMICS ALOFT ARE GONE AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN US AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN INCREASE INTO THE LOW 90S.
1217 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. EVAPORATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN WV/MD TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S. SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN SUNDAY UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING.
950 PM PDT Sat Apr 25 2015 High pressure brings dry conditions Sunday through the middle of the week.
1041 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 06Z TAF CYCLE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GUYMON TAF SITE AROUND 08Z TO 12Z SUNDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
915 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 OHIO VALLEY LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH TONIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. EVAPORATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN WV/MD TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S. SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN SUNDAY UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING.
1245 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
SFC DRYLINE/TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST OF KLRD SUN MRNG RESULTING IN WNWRLY SFC WIND AROUND 10 KTS WHILE KCRP/KVCT/KALI CURRENTLY XPCTD TO REMAIN SRLY THRU THE DAY SUN.
1155 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN. A POCKET OF MOISTURE ROTATING THROUGH THE RIDGE PERIPHERY WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL STRATOCU BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AND PLUME OF MOISTURE BEING DRAWN OFF THE ATLANTIC AND AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW CENTER IS ALSO QUITE APPARENT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT TOWARD MONTANA OVERNIGHT. A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES MONTANA OVERNIGHT.
BUT WILL THEN BE OVERTAKEN BY A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
710 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE MID MISS RVR VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS TOWARDS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS THE ROCKIES OVERNIGHT SENDING A DISTURBANCE AHEAD AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO WESTERN NEBRASKA. EVEN WITH THE LOW SHIFTING EAST. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT DIGS SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN THE LOW AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN NORTHWEST OF MADISON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES.
Low level ridging continued across Kansas with the fresh, cool airmass in place. Outside of that corridor, where some direct insolation will finally occur, temperatures are expected to reach the lower to perhaps mid 70s. The overall synoptic pattern will not change much, including the low level pressure, wind, moisture fields, so another round of expanding nocturnal stratus is expected later on tonight across nearly the same areas. The lower tropospheric temperatures will undergo a slow decline through much of the period with 850mb temps falling into the upper single digits by the weekend.
LOOKING FOR STRONG SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN IN PLACE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH LOW PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES.
WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH THE LOW CLOUD DECK. WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SURGE NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOWS TNGT IN THE LOWER/MID 70S CAN BE EXPECTED. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NE FL. WHILE AN UPPER LOW DIVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
647 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY HAS FURTHER DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AS SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER THE BWG AREA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR THESE SHOWERS TODAY IS QUITE SLOW ADDING TO THE POSSIBLY OF SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY AND NOW LIES BETWEEN THE TN AND OH VALLEY ACROSS KY AND TN. IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN KY SLOWLY TRACKING EAST ACROSS KY. SHOULD BE DOMINATED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND A FEED OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WEST. SOME MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN MAY REACH WEST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND.
330 AM PDT WED SEP 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Early this morning, northwest flow aloft prevails with north to northeast flow at the surface behind a cold front that is now to the south of our region. Temps have steadily fallen behind the front, ranging from the low 50s in northern MO and central IL to the low 60s in southern MO. Northwest flow aloft and N-NE winds at the surface will continue thru the day today as cooler and drier air gradually spills in. MAV MOS temps preferred over the cooler MET MOS.
301 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015 The synoptic pattern during the short term looks like it remains muddied thru the period as an upper level low develops over the Tn valley with time.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL PERSIST WITH N TO NE WINDS ACROSS MOST AREAS. SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE AND KEEP DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
BUT WINDS HAVE SHIFTED FROM THE NW-NE IN THE LOW-LVLS (GENERALLY BELOW ~2KFT). LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS AN UPR TROF PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXITING THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING IN BEHIND IT. A CUT OFF LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE REIGON.
119 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015 The synoptic pattern during the short term looks like it remains muddied thru the period as an upper level low develops over the Tn valley with time.
A ridge of high pressure will hang on one more day and bring warm temperatures and sunny skies for much of the day. A low pressure trough off the west coast will move inland later this afternoon and break down the ridge.
The biggest challenge with this set of TAFs Will be the low clouds that have shrouded much of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this morning. /ISSUED 303 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015/ The backdoor cold front has pushed into southeast Oklahoma. Expect cooler morning and afternoon temperatures the next couple of days.
337 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015 THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION FROM HIGH PRESSURE.
515 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST TODAY BRINGING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE AREA. THE LOW WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF MAINE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE COAST WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TODAY AS STRONG SURFACE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL LIFT WORK TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AS STRONG, CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH PUSHES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL OFFSHORE AND PUSHES COOL DRY AIR ACROSS OUR REGION.
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING IN BEHIND IT.
THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES EAST OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE DIGS INTO THE TROUGH AND MOST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THIS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING KEEPING MAINLY CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. 20 UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE IN THE TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW THAT SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW AND ALSO WHAT BECOMES OF JOAQUIN.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND STALL ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK. MOISTURE STARTS DEEPENING AGAIN AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE MIDWEST AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR VERTICAL MOTION INCREASES.
A SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND COPIOUS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL STREAM NE FROM THE GULF COAST INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT. AND STALL NEAR THE COAST THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE AREAS NEAR THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC AFFECTING US THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERAL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL STATES TONIGHT. WITH OVERCAST SKIES LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL BRING A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.