Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
238 PM CST Fri Nov 26 2021 /Updated at 1211 PM CST Fri Nov 26 2021/ Plentiful sunshine exists across all of the Southeast United States early this afternoon following the passage of the cold front during the overnight hours. Temps have warmed a bit more than previously expected here at midday, indicating not as much cold air advection with Central Alabama closer to the center of the ridge.
1131 AM EST Fri Nov 26 2021 Snow showers along and north of the Pennsylvania turnpike and in the ridges will gradually diminish into tonight.
High pressure will continue to slowly build over the western states. Each one of this weaker storms will produce some locally breezy conditions at ridgetop mainly for the central mountains and along the Montana Divide. Overnight lows will be pretty variable, due to weak inversion conditions as well as gap winds helping keep temperatures warmer.
Models are consistent overnight in bringing an upper level low over Baja California across northern Mexico and into West Central Texas Saturday afternoon and evening. Will take some time tonight to saturdate the lower levels, but once it doesm it looks like widespread mainly light rainfall for much of the area on Saturday. Cloud cover will keep temperatures down as well, so undercut highs a little and kept most areas in the low to mid 50s.
135 PM EST Fri Nov 26 2021 Chilly high pressure will build into the area tonight through early Saturday, before moving off the Southeast coast Saturday night.
Also lowered high temperatures a couple of degrees, with readings ranging from the lower to middle 30s along/north of I-74. Early this morning, ridge of high pressure extends from the southern Great Plains into the Midwest. Favorable radiational cooling conditions under the ridge axis will get the day started off to a cold start with morning lows dipping into the teens for most of central Illinois. South winds will begin to overspread central Illinois late in the day as the ridge axis departs to the east. If precip were to occur, expect primarily rain with surface temps warming into the 40s and 850 mb temps above freezing for most of the event. Behind the clipper, a reinforcing cold front will move across the region with 850 mb temps falling back down to 4-6C below zero.
148 PM CST Fri Nov 26 2021 High pressure will continue to build into the region tonight.
Even with full sunshine, High temperatures will still struggle to reach well into the low to mid 40s this afternoon.
(The rest of today ) Forecast is on track with warmer temps and increasing southerly winds this afternoon.
1103 AM MST Fri Nov 26 2021 18Z TAF CYCLE An upper level low pressure system stalled over the central Baja California Peninsula today will eject northeastward across southeast NM tonight and Saturday bringing a chance for rain and mountain snow showers to the south central mountains and southeast plains, potentially impacting Ruidoso, Roswell, and Dunken. The closed low over southern Baja, CA will move slowly northeast through Saturday. Also, a back door cold front will reach the northeast late Saturday, and will continue south and west Saturday.
1125 AM CST Fri Nov 26 2021 (Today and tonight) A closed upper low currently over the northern Baja region will lift northeast towards the area today, reaching southwest Texas by early Saturday morning. Temperatures will be warmer today, with light southwesterly winds and afternoon highs in the low to mid 60s. Lows tonight will be in the lower to middle 40s.
225 PM CST Fri Nov 26 2021 Currently there is broad ridging over most of the western two thirds of the CONUS, with a trough over the eastern third, as well as a cut-off low over the Baja Peninsula and the desert Southwest.
In the lower elevations, virga showers are expected due to dry surface air mass. On Saturday, an upper ridge will build into the area with dry conditions expected. Highs look to be a tad cooler than today.
/issued 702 AM EST Fri Nov 26 2021/ Today's cold front is currently in the FL Panhandle and will trek south across the area this morning and afternoon. Cold front tracks south over the waters today with only low chances of showers and winds shifting to north and northwest and increase to no more than 15 knots. A second front moves through Sun night-Mon then high pressure builds in for much of the week.
The models are in very good agreement bring a modest Pacific cold front through wrn and ncntl Nebraska tonight. The guidance blend is normally much warmer than the National model blend (NBM), but for this forecast, it is slightly above the 50th percentile of the NBM. Saturday night appears to be a modest radiational cooling event as Pacific high pressure drifts overhead and winds become light.
214 PM MST Fri Nov 26 2021 Surface analysis indicates a ridge over the western CONUS with warmer air advecting into the Plains. Dry air will remain in place resulting in near critical fire weather due to low RH values ( less than 15%) over the entire area as the warmer air will create large dewpoint depressions. Friday night into Saturday, a cold front moves NW to SE over the area resulting in winds shift to a more northerly component. Low temperatures fall into the 30s Friday night before slightly cooler lower temperatures in the 20s are forecasted for Saturday night.
319 PM MST Fri Nov 26 2021 Quiet weather is expected over the next several days thanks to an upper ridge sitting over the area through much of the weekend. Cloud cover will gradually increase this evening as a cold front approaches the Tri-State area from the northwest.
636 PM EST Fri Nov 26 2021 High pressure and dry air will build into the region tonight through Saturday.
The large scale mid level pattern features a ridge to our west and northwest and a trough to our east. There was a closed low over Baja, but that will be lifting toward the southern Plains and weakening, so it will not have any impact on our weather. Expect highs to reach the lower and mid 50s north and mid 50s to lower 60s south.
Temperatures will warm well above the seasonal average beginning this weekend as high pressure builds back into the region. A quasi-rex block pattern continues across the East Pacific and western Conus with expansive ridging and anomalously high H5 heights being undercut by a sheared, positively tilted trough stretching from the southern high plains into the subtropical East Pacific. An overall flow weakness within the base of the high pressure ridge should be maintained such that a generic Rex block pattern will persist and thermal profiles should not grow to extreme levels.
529 PM CST Fri Nov 26 2021 Currently there is broad ridging over most of the western two thirds of the CONUS, with a trough over the eastern third, as well as a cut-off low over the Baja Peninsula and the desert Southwest.
637 PM EST Fri Nov 26 2021 A cold front currently over the central Florida peninsula will continue to push south across the remainder of the forecast area this evening and overnight. Near freezing temperatures possible late tonight/early Saturday morning for Levy county which may generate some patchy frost across interior wind protected areas.
Similar to the previous evening, downslope component flow will keep temperatures warmer in the foothills and urban corridor. Lows in the mid to upper 30s are likely in those areas with areas further east being cooler in the 20s and low 30s. Following a weak cold front, Saturday will be cooler and dry with highs in the low 50s over the lower elevations and 30s/40s over the higher terrain.
The high will move east across the Ohio Valley tonight into Saturday. Pesky low clouds over central Ohio will slowly exit into northeast Ohio overnight as high pressure builds into the region. Forecast soundings indicates dry air may absorb some of the precipitation as it saturates the lower atmosphere.
413 PM MST Fri Nov 26 2021 Quiet weather is expected over the next several days thanks to an upper ridge sitting over the area through much of the weekend. Cloud cover will gradually increase this evening as a cold front approaches the Tri-State area from the northwest.
913 PM EST Fri Nov 26 2021 Temperatures have dropped off quickly this evening, ranging from the mid 20s in the usual cold spots to the lower 30s. The rate of fall will decrease, and possibly flatten out, for the rest of the night as high pressure moves off to our east and mid clouds over the Midwest stream into southern Indiana and north central Kentucky. This "warm" breeze is expected to lift temperatures into the low to mid 50s.
937 PM EST Fri Nov 26 2021 Snow showers along and north of the Pennsylvania turnpike and in the ridges will gradually diminish into tonight.
Meanwhile, an upper level low currently centered over northwestern Mexico will continue to move northeastward into the Four Corners and across the Texas Panhandle tonight into tomorrow before being absorbed by an upper level trough across the Great Lakes region tomorrow night. Models continue to show pulses of energy moving across South Texas tonight from west east due to the upper level low while moisture moves into the area from the south with with PWATs increasing from an inch to 1. With the added cloud cover and precipitation expected tomorrow, highs are expected to remain on the cooler side with temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s.
Low pressure will develop across the northern Plains and slide southeast overnight and end up in southern Wisconsin by midday Saturday. As it does so, a cold front will move southeast across the area during the day Saturday. A dry and overall mild pattern will persist through the week as any low pressure system remains to the northeast of the area.
Primary aviation concern over the next 24 hours is the arrival of a cold front from the north during the day Saturday. As the main upper level low moves east into the Texas South Plains, the main moisture feed unfortunately will remain south of the Panhandles. This is largely due to a a cold front moving south throughout the day tomorrow. This cold front will displace any depiction of moisture south of the Panhandles likely leaving all of the Panhandles dry. Not much dichotomy in temperatures behind the front with highs tomorrow ranging from the lower to mid 60s.
517 PM CST Fri Nov 26 2021 Forecast going into the overnight hours features a continuation of the repetitive roughly 3 day pattern of late featuring a mild day followed by a cold frontal passage and resultant wind. This next wave glides down in the NW flow aloft tonight pushing a cold front through the area.
High pressure will continue to build into the region tonight.
539 PM EST Fri Nov 26 2021 Snow showers along and north of the Pennsylvania turnpike and in the ridges will gradually diminish into tonight.
Meanwhile, a gusty backdoor cold front will begin to move into northeastern NM early Saturday morning. A weak backdoor cold front will slide down the eastern plains Saturday, providing several degrees of cooling to the east central and northeast plains. Otherwise, the weekend will be tranquil, with plenty of sunshine and continued above normal temperatures under the influence of high pressure.
Any leftover spots that may not have dropped to freezing over the last week will easily do so tonight and range from the mid/upper 20s in valley locations to around 30 degrees elsewhere. We'll already begin to modify the cooler air mass by Saturday, as southwesterly surface flow begins by Saturday afternoon.
(The rest of tonight) High clouds are increasing across southern Oklahoma in advance of an upper level low over northern Mexico. At the surface, a high pressure ridge axis extends from the Ohio Valley southwest across TX. Southerly winds on the north side of the ridge will slow cooling and will result in overnight lows much milder than last night. Lacy (Saturday through next Friday) Above normal temperatures are expected areawide tomorrow, in advance of a cold front that will move through the area late tomorrow and tomorrow night. Well ahead of the front, showers will increase during the day tomorrow, primarily across parts of Texas, in response to an upper low currently over the Baja lifting to the east-northeast toward the area.
918 PM EST Fri Nov 26 2021 High pressure and dry air will build into the region tonight through Saturday.
104 PM PST Fri Nov 26 2021 Strong high pressure remains over the region with the storm track continuing to be diverted well to our north. An appreciable ridge of high pressure remains anchored over much of the West with the storm track continuing to be directed into the Pacific Northwest.
Temperatures will be relatively warm on the backside of the trough, with the true cold front not coming down until later in the day on Saturday as another upper wave digs down from Ontario. Model soundings across our north would indicate a good chance for some freezing rain as some of those bands come down, and a few of the CAMs show this. Confidence in any winter impacts is not high, although there could be a few pellets of sleet or some freezing sprinkles.
High pressure will drift east of the region tonight and Saturday, allowing for winds to become more southwesterly and temperatures to moderate back into the 50s Saturday afternoon.
A ridge of high pressure will be the dominant feature over the Northern Rockies for the next several days.
708 PM EST Fri Nov 26 2021 High pressure along with cooler and drier air will continue building into the area and dominate the region through the weekend.
The high will move east across the Ohio Valley tonight into Saturday. High pressure ridging at the surface is beginning to clear low- level clouds from southwest to northeast this evening. Forecast soundings indicates dry air may absorb some of the precipitation as it saturates the lower atmosphere.
935 PM EST Fri Nov 26 2021 High pressure along with cooler and drier air will continue building into the area and dominate the region through the weekend.
613 PM CST Fri Nov 26 2021 All is quiet on the homefront thanks to a surface pressure ridge and mid-level subsidence along the backside of an upper-level trough parked over the northeastern United States.
This has kept dry and cooler than normal conditions anchored in place through the evening. With persistent clear skies, radiational cooling effects are already evident across the forecast area as temperatures have dropped near or below freezing fairly early in the overnight period. Will keep monitoring temperature trends over the next several hours, but would not be surprised to see some areas in higher elevations drop into the lower 20s by early morning.
519 PM CST Fri Nov 26 2021 A general warming trend will begin today as ridging begins to build over the Central Great Basin positioning us in prolonged northwest flow.
Today will be the last day of seasonal temperatures with above average temperatures returning tomorrow as a ridge begins building in over the West Coast.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 37 57 31 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 35 54 28 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 52 33 53 27 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 31 50 25 44 / 0 0 0 10 0.
With the ridge building in from the southwest, the amount of moisture is less and less as most of it is coming through the Panhandle and Montana. We are seeing some freezing fog across the Island Park area and also the Stanley Basin. We may see freezing fog the next couple of nights in similar areas, but also a better potential across the Snake Plain and the southeast highlands. Other than gap winds, the only places that will remain breezy are closer to ridgetop Today and Sunday.
130 AM EST Sat Nov 27 2021 Chilly high pressure will build into the area tonight through early Saturday, before moving off the Southeast coast Saturday night. A fast-moving but dry cold front will cross the area late Sunday.
For us, expect a cold frontal passage tonight. Ahead of the front today, with SSW surface flow established, expect warmer highs into the 50s, lower 60s Ozark Foothills.
Dry Cold Fronts Lead to Below Normal Temperatures through the The cold front is currently located across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee counties, and will continue to push southward through the overnight hours. Cooler, drier air will filter in over the area behind the front. While it is not in the official forecast, overnight lows could drop into the upper 30s in the traditionally cooler locations. Cold front is currently located across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee counties, and is expected to continue to move southward through the overnight hours. Northwest winds around 5-10 mph overnight Cold front is located across the Treasure Coast waters, and will continue to move southward.
1043 PM CST Fri Nov 26 2021 Forecast going into the overnight hours features a continuation of the repetitive roughly 3 day pattern of late featuring a mild day followed by a cold frontal passage and resultant wind. This next wave glides down in the NW flow aloft tonight pushing a cold front through the area. Have worked temperatures toward the cooler half half of guidance or upper teens to mid 20s. Upper level cirrus likely on the increase into the afternoon as a weak wave sneaks down the front side of the upper level ridge.
Models are consistent overnight in bringing an upper level low over Baja California across northern Mexico and into West Central Texas Saturday afternoon and evening. Will take some time tonight to saturate the lower levels, but once it does it looks like widespread mainly light rainfall for much of the area on Saturday. Cloud cover will keep temperatures down as well, so undercut highs a little and kept most areas in the low to mid 50s.
Northwest flow over the central High Plains amplifies as a short wave ridge moves through the northwestern U.
245 AM CST Sat Nov 27 2021 Sfc observations this morning depict the sfc cold front stretching from northwest Kansas through southeast Nebraska. And given the cooler airmass is far displaced behind the sfc front, confidence was high enough to bump high temps closer to the 95th percentile of guidance with readings in the middle 60s. Highs in the lower 50s coupled with light winds and sunny skies, should result in another pleasant afternoon.
Models are holding off on develop precipitation until after 16-18z for the Methow Valley and northern valleys when temperatures are expected to be rising above freezing for those areas that drop down to freezing overnight. Thus the threat for freezing rain in the Methow Valley is low and removed mention from the forecast.
321 AM EST Sat Nov 27 2021 Dry high pressure will remain in place through early Sunday, before a cold front crosses the Carolinas Sunday evening with little fanfare.
1127 PM CST Fri Nov 26 2021 A general warming trend will begin today as ridging begins to build over the Central Great Basin positioning us in prolonged northwest flow.
1225 AM EST Sat Nov 27 2021 High pressure along with cooler and drier air will continue building into the area and dominate the region through the weekend.
142 AM MST Sat Nov 27 2021 Water vapor shows upper ridge covering the western CONUS with trof tracking southeast across ALTA/SASK on the northern periphery of the ridge. At the surface, trof is moving eastward across the western Dakotas with cold front diving south across northern MT. Northwest winds will continue to increase this morning as trof advances eastward and cold front moves in from the north. Highs will be noticeably cooler than yesterday, and in the 40s to lower 50s.
That said, the showers remain light and even along the ridges amounts over the next 24hrs will peak around 0.
Warmer today ahead of a cold front that will move across the area early this afternoon. High temperatures today will be noticeably warmer ahead of a cold front that will move across the area from northwest to southeast in the 18 to 21 UTC timeframe. A warm front surging across the area this morning will cause some precipitation type issues if any precipitation can survive falling through the the dry air below the cloud layer noted on soundings. High pressure will build into the Central Plains Saturday night with northwest winds across the region. NW flow with a building ridge to the west of the area continues across the area.
Currently there is broad ridging over most of the western two thirds of the CONUS, with a trough over the eastern third, as well as a cut-off low over the Baja Peninsula and the desert Southwest.
08z WV satellite reveals an upper low over Paso del Norte, a northern stream impulse over the Dakotas, and cyclonic flow aloft over the eastern CONUS. At the surface, a cold front is beginning to push and is located near the NE/KS border. A light westerly breeze - and, over the southern Panhandles, some cloud cover - has helped keep temperatures a bit warmer compared to last night, with many areas still in the 40s.
203 AM CST Sat Nov 27 2021 High Pressure over the southeast is keeping skies clear and winds calm this morning. While we won't be seeing any precipitation from this system, we will see northerly winds move back in Sunday afternoon as a dry front moves through out ahead of strong high pressure moving in from the northern Great Plains.
Expect clearing cloud cover through the remainder of the day as the western CONUS ridge attempts to pop back up.
The low cloud deck over NE FL associated with the boundary will shift south and dissipate as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Northwesterly flow will funnel a cool, dry airmass over the area tonight causing temperatures to drop to at or near freezing across inland SE GA and Suwannee Valley, mid/upper 30s in inland NE FL and low 40s along the coast. Cool, dry weekend ahead with high pressure settling over the region. The ridge weakens on Sunday as a front approaches from the northwest.
1256 AM PST Sat Nov 27 2021 Strong high pressure remains over the region with the storm track continuing to be diverted well to our north.
(Today) Upper low, currently located west of ELP, will shift east into north Texas today.
149 AM CST Sat Nov 27 2021 Water vapor satellite early this morning showed a short wave trough moving southeast across northwest Minnesota. An area of low pressure associated with this wave was over the far southeast corner of South Dakota. The short wave trough looks to only be able to produce some weak pv advection in the 500-300 mb layer today and it is tough to find a coherent frontogenesis signal.
1256 AM MST Sat Nov 27 2021 Temperatures will warm well above the seasonal average beginning this weekend as high pressure builds back into the region. A quasi-rex block pattern continues across the East Pacific and western Conus with expansive ridging and anomalously high H5 heights being undercut by a sheared, positively tilted trough stretching from the southern high plains into the subtropical East Pacific. An overall flow weakness within the base of the high pressure ridge should be maintained such that a generic Rex block pattern will persist and thermal profiles should not grow to extreme levels.
Otherwise gradual clearing from west to east this afternoon will allow temperatures to rise into the lower 40s across southern and western MN while western WI mostly stays in the lower to middle 30s.
The arrival of a cold front from the north is the primary aviation concern over the next 24 hours with winds, west-southwesterly to start, veering to northeasterly by the latter part of the morning. As the main upper level low moves east into the Texas South Plains, the main moisture feed unfortunately will remain south of the Panhandles. This is largely due to a a cold front moving south throughout the day tomorrow. This cold front will displace any depiction of moisture south of the Panhandles likely leaving all of the Panhandles dry. Not much dichotomy in temperatures behind the front with highs tomorrow ranging from the lower to mid 60s.