Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Increased winds in this area this morning with otherwise mostly sunny skies and slightly warmer temperatures expected today.
Ongoing cloud cover across southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas to exit the region to the east allowing for clear skies and sufficient radiational cooling to bring overnight low temperatures to near freezing. Cold high pressure across the region will limit afternoon high temperatures to the upper 50s on Friday.
Wouldn't be surprised if this bled past 00Z, maybe til 03Z, until the upper trof makes its passage. After that is when the cooler air is draw in, and wrap around cloudiness comes into play, esp for the northern part of the area.
These conditions will not persist, with a reinforcing cold front expected to sweep thru later in the day. Only issue thereafter will be cold front moving through the forecast area this evening.
1119 AM CST Fri Nov 12 2021 The forecast area was sandwiched between an area of rain showers associated with a mid-level baroclinic zone across southern Kansas and southwest Missouri, and light snow showers in Iowa associated with the parent upper low early this morning. Cloud cover will increase this morning from north to south as stratus deck moves in on the backside of the the low, though we could see some of this erode by late morning through early afternoon.
Warm dry weather will prevail across northwest California through the weekend due to a persistent ridge of high pressure.
Nearly vertically stacked low pressure system continues to spin away over Wisconsin this afternoon. A secondary vorticity maximum on the back side of the upper low is moving southeast across the region, bringing some colder mid-level temperatures and a bit of upward motion. With surface dewpoints in the low 20s keeping wet bulb temperatures near freezing, the result is some scattered flurries! No impacts or accumulations are expected with these, but a good reminder that winter is fast approaching. Winds turn to the southwest tomorrow as high pressure moves off to the east and an Alberta Clipper approaches from the northwest. This low will stay well to the north, but will drive a cold front through the area late Saturday night. Despite the cold front, the colder air will remain to the north and east of the area.
A chilly night is anticipated with lows in the low to mid 30s across the area, and nudged down temps a bit using latest NBM model run.
/issued 252 PM CST Fri Nov 12 2021/ A potent vort max rounding the base of a positively tilted trough is resulting in a band of light rain across west Tennessee, east Central Arkansas and approaching west Mississippi. A cold front is moving into Middle Tennessee and approaching the Alabama State line. Current temperatures range from the mid 50s in northeast Arkansas to the low 60s where its still sunny in northeast Mississippi.
252 PM MST Fri Nov 12 2021 Issued at 230 MST Fri Nov 12 2021 Water vapor shows ridging over the western US with some high level moisture moving over Colorado. Tonight, the axis of a mid level ridge will move over our forecast area. The only exception will be a few snow showers across the mountain ridges. An upper level trough of low pressure will be centered over the Eastern U. through the remainder of the weekend with an upper trough over the Western States.
312 PM CST Fri Nov 12 2021 A low pressure system will move out of the region late tonight.
A cold front has finished its progression through the Natural State w/ winds becoming predominately out of the northwest.
A light freeze is likely in these locations with with light winds, clear skies, and dewpoints in the low to mid 20s. (This afternoon through Saturday night) A broad, upper trough is centered over the Upper Midwest and an upper ridge is over the southwest part of the country. A cold front with gusty north to northeast winds is pushing through West Texas. Temperatures may reach freezing across isolated parts of Culberson and Eddy Counties which have not had a freeze so far this season. More widespread freezing will likely occur across northern portions of Lea County and parts of the northern Permian Basin which have already experienced a freeze this season.
143 PM PST Fri Nov 12 2021 The theme of dense fog across the San Joaquin Valley continues through the weekend as a ridge of high pressure remains in place.
456 PM MST Fri Nov 12 2021 Issued at 230 MST Fri Nov 12 2021 Water vapor shows ridging over the western US with some high level moisture moving over Colorado. Tonight, the axis of a mid level ridge will move over our forecast area. The only exception will be a few snow showers across the mountain ridges. An upper level trough of low pressure will be centered over the Eastern U. through the remainder of the weekend with an upper trough over the Western States.
The northeastern half of the forecast area has seen pretty widespread cloud cover and even a few flurries on the backside of a deep low pressure system to our northeast. Skies will gradually start to clear late this afternoon and evening, and the strong northwest winds are also on the decrease as the upper low pushes eastward across the Great Lakes. Saturday will be noticably warmer as south winds return and upper level ridging moves overhead. Fortunately, it appears that we will avoid any wintry impacts with surface temperatures above freezing and most of the precipitation expected to fall as rain.
Partly cloudy skies in place this afternoon with temperatures generally in the lower 60s. For that reason, measurable pops will remain on the low side. Turning cooler on Saturday with highs mid 40s to lower 50s.
This may keep overnight lows a bit warmer than forecast, at least where fresh snow isn't over an inch. A small ridge was along the ND/MT border and into far western SD.
741 PM CST Fri Nov 12 2021 A low pressure system will move out of the region late tonight.
Fog and low stratus has been slow to burn off today in many of the area valleys, likely because mid to high level clouds ahead of this front have prevented warming of the top of the low cloud layer. Nighttime and early morning fog will also be common in the valleys, typical conditions under high pressure this time of year.
633 PM EST Fri Nov 12 2021 A dry cold front will sweep across the Carolinas Saturday. Rain-free weather will continue as high pressure across the southern Plains builds eastward.
421 PM PST Fri Nov 12 2021 Updated air quality section The theme of dense fog across the San Joaquin Valley continues through the weekend as a ridge of high pressure remains in place.
This is along the initial cold front in advance of increasing deep layer dPVA. Otherwise, the secondary cold front was entering west TN and will arrive a few hours later. Overnight lows will plummet into the lower to middle 30s as stronger cold advection arrives. This weekend, the stout system in the Great Lakes will lift northeast and high pressure will build into the region. The gradient behind the previously mentioned cold front will allow for breezy conditions tomorrow, with northwest winds filtering in that cooler, drier air.
511 PM CST Fri Nov 12 2021 A low pressure system will move out of the region late tonight.
as another cold front settles into the region. slightly cooler than other operational models. Tomorrow will be on the chilly side with high temps rising only into the 50s behind the cold front. These ideal radiational cooling conditions should help temperatures to drop quickly overnight, and likely into the lower 30s for our typically cooler locations.
A cold front will push across the area this evening accompanied by a shift to northwest surface wind. as another cold front settles into the region. slightly cooler than other operational models. Tomorrow will be on the chilly side with high temps rising only into the 50s behind the cold front. These ideal radiational cooling conditions should help temperatures to drop quickly overnight, and likely into the lower 30s for our typically cooler locations.
At the surface, a lee side trough will develop Saturday over the eastern highlands, producing wind gusts in the 20kt to 25kt range at KLVS, KTCC and KROW.
205 PM MST Fri Nov 12 2021 The deep closed low over the upper Midwest will eject northeast across the Great Lakes region tonight. Elsewhere, across the forecast area, expect partly cloudy skies with dry conditions and slightly warmer temperatures on Saturday.
(Tonight) The strong and gusty northwest winds earlier today will subside tonight as surface ridging builds into the region behind a cold front. This, along with clear skies, will allow temps to fall to freezing in most places.
Warm and dry conditions with light winds are expected over the weekend with high pressure set up over the Desert Southwest.
411 PM MST Fri Nov 12 2021 The deep closed low over the upper Midwest will eject northeast across the Great Lakes region tonight. Elsewhere, across the forecast area, expect partly cloudy skies with dry conditions and slightly warmer temperatures on Saturday.
This is associated with a strong cold front crossing the region. Moisture is limited, but dynamics are impressive with a vigorous H5 vort max dropping through the lower OH Valley and Appalachians and a 130+ kt H3 jet over WV and southern PA, so this is overcoming the limited moisture. VFR will prevail through most of the night, but a strong cold front crossing the region could bring a few MVFR showers to TRI after 08Z. A fairly sharp 500 MB trough axis will swing through the area tonight, bringing light precip mainly after midnight. As temps cool overnight tonight, precip over the higher elevations will probably switch to light snow.
521 PM CST Fri Nov 12 2021 (This evening through Saturday) A cold front has worked well south and east of the forecast area this afternoon with gusty west-northwest winds following in its wake. High pressure will prevail at the surface on Saturday with below normal temperatures anticipated despite mostly sunny skies.
High pressure will continue to build into the region through the weekend.
/issued 236 PM CST Fri Nov 12 2021/ AT 2 pm CST, the cold front that swept through the forecast area this morning was moving on into South Texas. Lows should drop near or slightly below freezing across most of the Caprock and down into the 20s across some of the sandy drainages of the northwest South Plains and southwest Texas Panhandle. The outskirts of Lubbock should be on the cusp of freezing temps with the forecast low for the airport of 33F. Some valley areas across Hall and Childress Counties may also flirt with freezing temperatures.
A reinforcing cold front is approaching the area from the northwest this afternoon. Some occasional gusts up to 25mph will be possible along the barrier islands and near coastal areas as some of the higher winds speeds mix down. There is even a chance that extreme northern Houston County (around the Grapeland area) may even approach freezing. Saturday will be clear, cool, and generally fantastic as high pressure builds over East Texas. The low level jet near the coast moves eastwards, so expect weakening winds through the morning with near calm conditions by sunset.
536 PM CST Fri Nov 12 2021 (This evening through Saturday) Mild and breezy conditions will remain over the area through this evening in the wake of the cold front that passed through the areas earlier today.
00z upper-air charts show a well established longwave trof across much of eastern North America, with a closed mid/upper-level low over Ontario. However, a gradual diminishing trend has been observed over the past several hours, likely stemming from the onset of midlevel subsidence as the aforementioned sharp trof axis continues to pull east. Despite strong forcing for ascent, accumulations will be tempered by several factors, to include (1) surface wet-bulb temps likely hovering just above freezing, (2) a somewhat poor-quality DGZ, constrained by strong stability and limited depth of moisture/saturation.
220 AM CST Sat Nov 13 2021 08Z water vapor imagery showed a high amplitude trough moving into the eastern half of the U. At the surface, high pressure was centered over western OK with all of the low level moisture shunted off the gulf coast. In general think high will be in the 50s with parts of north central KS seeing the warmer temps as winds become southerly there sooner in the day. Forecast soundings show plenty of warm air in the lowest several thousand feet near the surface that temps are expected to remain in the upper 30s and lower 40s with precip type as all rain.
Today through Saturday afternoon Dirty ridge continues over the West through the weekend, bringing dry weather, light winds, and some clouds at times.
Tonight, with south winds continuing, and moisture increasing, lows should be warmer, falling into the 40s to near 50.
/issued 236 PM CST Fri Nov 12 2021/ AT 2 pm CST, the cold front that swept through the forecast area this morning was moving on into South Texas. Lows should drop near or slightly below freezing across most of the Caprock and down into the 20s across some of the sandy drainages of the northwest South Plains and southwest Texas Panhandle. The outskirts of Lubbock should be on the cusp of freezing temps with the forecast low for the airport of 33F. Some valley areas across Hall and Childress Counties may also flirt with freezing temperatures. This front will bring breezy northerly winds to the region Sunday morning along with slightly cooler temperatures.
1036 PM MST Fri Nov 12 2021 The deep closed low over the upper Midwest will eject northeast across the Great Lakes region tonight. Elsewhere, across the forecast area, expect partly cloudy skies with dry conditions and slightly warmer temperatures on Saturday.
Here comes Jack Frost as a strong upper level low centered over the great lakes begins to lift northeast. Surface observations show the associated reinforcing cold front moving into central Mississippi and should clear the area later tonight. The main thing will be the development of areas of frost across the area Saturday night as low drop down into the low to mid 30s with light winds. Some areas along highway 84 and north will likely see temperatures at or below freezing and as a result a Freeze watch is in effect.
Evaporative cooling due to the dry air in the low levels was causing a local and temporary drop in the temperature, changing the precipitation type to sleet or snow. The precipitation type should be mainly light rain as low level warm air advection ahead of the cold front may actually cause the temperature to slowly rise Saturday night. Could not rule out a few snowflakes mixing in across northeast MO and west central IL, but no accumulation is expected due to the light intensity of the precipitation, warm ground/surface temperatures, and air temperatures likely just above the freezing mark.
(Today) Temperatures continue to fall off, with a large portion of northeast OK and northwest AR at or below freezing at this time. The forecast area will remain on the backside of the exiting longwave trof across the eastern US, with another day of below normal temperatures expected.
/issued 743 PM EST Fri Nov 12 2021/ Deep trough from the Great Lakes upper low into the Gulf of Mexico easily seen in satellite imagery this evening. Latest surface analysis showing one cold front moving over the S FL Peninsula while the next front is moving through the Deep South.
1050 PM CST Fri Nov 12 2021 (This evening through Saturday) Mild and breezy conditions will remain over the area through this evening in the wake of the cold front that passed through the areas earlier today.
320 AM EST Sat Nov 13 2021 A dry cold front will sweep across the Carolinas Saturday. Rain-free weather will continue as high pressure across the southern Plains builds eastward.
Wind chills in the low to mid 20s early this morning.
This is associated with a strong cold front crossing the region. Moisture is limited, but dynamics are impressive with a vigorous H5 vort max dropping through the lower OH Valley and Appalachians and a 130+ kt H3 jet over WV and southern PA, so this is overcoming the limited moisture. However a strong cold front will cross the region and could bring a few MVFR showers to TRI between 09 and 12Z.
Temperatures today are expected to be warmer climbing into the 60s to low 70s across much of the area.
102 AM EST Sat Nov 13 2021 A dry cold front will sweep across the Carolinas Saturday. Rain-free weather will continue as high pressure across the southern Plains builds eastward.
354 AM EST Sat Nov 13 2021 A dry cold front will sweep across the Carolinas Saturday. Rain-free weather will continue as high pressure across the southern Plains builds eastward.
1126 PM CST Fri Nov 12 2021 The northeastern half of the forecast area has seen pretty widespread cloud cover and even a few flurries on the backside of a deep low pressure system to our northeast. Skies will gradually start to clear late this afternoon and evening, and the strong northwest winds are also on the decrease as the upper low pushes eastward across the Great Lakes. Saturday will be noticably warmer as south winds return and upper level ridging moves overhead. Fortunately, it appears that we will avoid any wintry impacts with surface temperatures above freezing and most of the precipitation expected to fall as rain.
Cold front will push through the area overnight. Impressive trough axis will swing through the region this morning. Lingering snow showers are expected over the ridges and I-80 corridor into the afternoon hours. This would allow for snow showers to dissipate in the ridges and north during the afternoon.
VFR conditions will continue through the day as a strong northerly wind develops behind the cold front. Here comes Jack Frost as a strong upper level low centered over the great lakes begins to lift northeast. Surface observations show the associated reinforcing cold front moving into central Mississippi and should clear the area later tonight. The main thing will be the development of areas of frost across the area Saturday night as low drop down into the low to mid 30s with light winds. Some areas along highway 84 and north will likely see temperatures at or below freezing and as a result a Freeze watch is in effect.
102 AM MST Sat Nov 13 2021 It'll be a generally quiet and seasonably warm start to the weekend across the Western Slope as high pressure builds off the coast of the southwestern CONUS throughout the day. As the high's center remains situated off the coast of California, northwest flow aloft will keep its hold over eastern Utah and western Colorado. Another factor will be the integration of drier air as a result of the building ridge with HREF guidance showing the persistent low and midlevel clouds beginning to dissipate along the Continental Divide throughout the morning. This will be in response to the aforementioned high pressure center expanding eastward with precipitable water values dropping by at least 0.
Our far nrn areas will approach the freezing mark tonight, so the ongoing Freeze Warning will remain as is. Ongoing cloud cover across southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas to exit the region to the east allowing for clear skies and sufficient radiational cooling to bring overnight low temperatures to near freezing.
248 AM CST Sat Nov 13 2021 Cold front has worked its way through the mid state, and most of the area already in the 30s on the way to freezing temps for most. Drier conditions will move in today in the wake of the cold front, but with high temps struggling to get to 50 for most of the area. The upper trough will continue eastward today, but with cold temps aloft lows tonight will again get to freezing for most, and the mid to upper 20s on the Plateau.
1036 PM CST Fri Nov 12 2021 (Tonight) The strong and gusty northwest winds earlier today will subside tonight as surface ridging builds into the region behind a cold front. This, along with clear skies, will allow temps to fall to freezing in most places.
with deep low over the western Great Lakes and lee trof/warm front along the Rockies. Warm front shifts east tonight, with non-diurnal temperature trend across northeast Wyoming and the Black Hills. Weak high pressure settles in on Sunday with lighter winds and highs near average.
It has also kept some areas of South Central Texas much warmer thus far overnight with 1 am temperatures from Eagle Pass to Faith Ranch in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Compare that to the low to upper 40s across ares of the Hill Country that are mostly clear. The return of the subtle southerly flow will allow overnight lows Sunday morning to be anywhere from 3 to 10 degrees warmer than the overnight lows expected tonight. If you like the cooler weather today/Saturday will for sure be the better day to be outside enjoying walking your dog, watching a college football game, or doing yard work.
Sunday evening, with the passage of the cold front, precip is then expected to switch back to snow showers, primarily north of I-70.
1103 PM CST Fri Nov 12 2021 A low pressure system will move out of the region late tonight. Showers have been diminishing in coverage the last few hours, though a more prominent band is about to enter the northwest CWA associated with the next trough axis. A deep upper low is currently over WI and moving east. The upper trough axis will move east through IL this evening, putting an end to the chance for rain/snow. Still, after lows in the lower 30s tonight, only expecting highs to be in the lower 40s on Saturday. Winds will be from the south Saturday night, but then quickly shift to the northwest Sunday morning as a cold front moves through the area.
As an upper ridge continues to build into the west coast, moist westerly flow aloft will spread showers across the northern mountains through Saturday morning. Snow levels will remain above 7000-8000 ft MSL with only the highest peaks seeing a dusting of fresh snow. A weak disturbance along the periphery of the ridge on Sunday afternoon will stir up another round of light rain showers across the West Central Mountains.
It would seem to me the snow showers will continue until the passage of that trough. The heaviest snow showers should be in the 10 pm to 2 am time frame, ahead of the just in front of the upper trough. Actually slightly warm air comes in at the cloud level behind the trough so that may be enough to cause the showers toward sunrise to be more rain than snow. A deep upper low is currently located over northern Wisconsin. As the low begins to fill and eject northeastward, the trough axis will pivot through the cwa tonight. We'll be starting out near freezing when the precipitation begins and most of this, except along the lake shore, will be snow.
Impressive trough axis will swing through the region this morning. Lingering snow showers are expected over the ridges and I-80 corridor into the afternoon hours. This would allow for snow showers to dissipate in the ridges and north during the afternoon.
Given the high uncertainty, went middle of the road for snow totals and will put out an SPS highlighting the fast moving system. Some mixing in of freezing rain or sleet is not completely out of the question in our far southwestern counties as some warm air aloft makes its way into that area. This would feature an area of low pressure pretty far up in Manitoba province, and would affect locales closer to the International border. Higher winds move in Wed after a FROPA, possibly flanked by pre and post frontal troughs that will shift winds first from S to W and eventually to the NW by later Wed. Temps will remain below the freezing mark on Sun before moderating into the 30s Mon with some low to mid 40s on Tue.
This may keep overnight lows a bit warmer than forecast, at least where fresh snow isn't over an inch. A small ridge was along the ND/MT border and into far western SD. Otherwise the other concern will be light precipitation as the low tracks to near the northeastern SD/MN border by 00Z Sunday.