Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cooler with a few showers around the area on Tuesday as well. Dry and warmer the second half of the week with some breeziness at times. The weather system responsible for this wind will pass through the region bringing a few showers and cooler temperatures Tuesday afternoon. A slight increase in moisture and cooler temperatures will result in higher minimum relativity humidity values Tuesday which will lessen the fire weather concerns a bit. After coordination with the USFS, have opted to post a Red Flag Warning for the lower valleys east of Tucson despite projected higher humidity values.
1038 PM EDT Mon Apr 11 2022 A high pressure system centered to the east of northern Florida supports fresh easterly breezes across the Florida Keys. Although the 00Z KKEY RAOB did not register any height changes in the lower troposphere, the 500 and 200 mb heights increased. The forecast calls for lows in the lower 70s, nil rain chances, and breezy easterlies overnight.
300 PM PDT Mon Apr 11 2022 Precipitation will taper off over Central California tonight as a cold front moves out of the region.
Cooler temperatures remain this week as additional widespread rain and snow chances late week into the weekend. These showers will lessen in coverage this evening and generally be limited to the higher terrain. These winds will decrease overnight but remain onshore and breezy tomorrow as longwave troughing continues to impact the area. Some locations, mainly in the far northern Sacramento Valley and portions of the central Sacramento Valley may see near or below freezing temperatures for a few hours early tomorrow morning.
HREF shows the higher elevations experiencing wind advisory criteria winds through early morning. TD Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 80 62 80 60 / 40 40 20 20 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 56 78 60 79 58 / 60 60 10 20 80 Oak Ridge, TN 55 76 59 79 57 / 60 60 20 20 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 73 54 78 57 / 60 60 10 20 50 TN.
Also, the low-level 850mb jet will increase strengthening the isentropic lift as well. Expect winds to increase some of the next couple of hours as the low-level jet strengthens. Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 80 62 80 60 / 40 40 20 20 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 78 60 79 58 / 60 50 10 20 80 Oak Ridge, TN 54 76 59 79 57 / 60 60 20 20 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 73 54 78 57 / 60 50 10 20 50 TN.
An historic and dangerous late season winter storm on the The 12z ensemble mean and deterministic guidance have all shifted north with the low track relative to recent model guidance.
Lows tonight in the low 50s expected with some patchy fog possible. The drier southeast CWA has trended to the lower RH values and is still supportive of the current Fire Danger Statement. Otherwise trended some slight pops in the far NW Tuesday night with possible amplifying trough west of the area and enhanced moisture.
743 PM EDT Mon Apr 11 2022 Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic will extend across the area into tonight, producing low level winds generally out of the southeast. This will continue to modify the dry and cooler airmass across the region, with min temps tonight not as cool as this morning's lows. Lows late tonight will range from the upper 50s to low 60s over much of east central FL, except mid 50s over more rural and normally cooler spots over the interior.
Another dry day expected across the region today as high pressure remains over the West Atlantic. Aloft, ridging will spread over the region today. The increase in H5 heights will point to a bit warmer today with temperatures warming into the upper 80s across the western interior and Gulf Coastal areas. This will keep the Atlantic Metro a few degrees cooler (generally around 80F) with the onshore flow. Still, the upper high will be relatively close, which will point to warm conditions. Again, the onshore flow will keep the east coast slightly cooler.
On Tuesday, a deep closed low will lift into southeast MT. This will drive a strong cold front into the area. Windy conditions ahead of and behind the cold front. Highs are forecast to reach the lower 70s to around 80 ahead of the front. Ascent is forecast with the advancing upper trough with very limited moisture. The potential for thunderstorms exists with MUCAPEs from 250 to over 1000 j/kg across Boyd, Holt, Garfield and Wheeler County late afternoon just ahead of the cold front. With a northwest wind 15 to 30 mph, wind chills will fall into the low single digits across the west! The deep closed low will move across southern ND on Wednesday with tight H5 and H7 heights indicated across the area.
A few areas will likely see the lower 60s before we get past peak heating this afternoon. As WAA increases again aloft ahead of the approaching low pressure system, clouds will return by mid Tuesday morning, leading to a fairly cloudy day Tuesday. Temperatures will once again be fairly warm, with highs in the lower 50s to lower 60s. A few showers could develop by the late afternoon, meriting some low pops early in the day, but most of the precipitation will likely hold off until the arrival of the cold front Tuesday evening.
345 AM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022 High pressure will build into the region today. The high pressure will give way to a warm front bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms late tonight and Wednesday.
However, mid to upper level ridging increasing and the surface boundary lifting northeast in response to pressure falls will lift this activity well to our northeast by afternoon if not sooner. Strong to perhaps severe convection in the lower MS will likely weaken as it as it reaches north AL into middle TN late this evening into the overnight hours. With dew points climbing into the upper 50s to lower 60s, and persistent southerly flow will keep temperatures very mild tonight in the lower 60s for lows. The models are a bit slower now with the progression of an expected QLCS along an approaching cold front.
402 AM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022 High pressure over the western Atlantic waters will continue to influence the Keys weather through Wednesday by promoting dry and stable weather. The Keys will remain on the backside of the high pressure which will cause winds to be from the east over the next 24 hours, then winds will clock to the east to southeast on Wednesday.
The ridge pushes a touch further east and southerly flow increases across the area.
Today Through Wednesday Night An upper low over the northwest U. This upper low will continue to move east today as an upper ridge builds over the east coast. A warm front in the north part of the state will move into Missouri this morning. Patchy fog is expected north of the warm front. A cold front in the Rockies will move into the Plains tonight. The warm and moist air ahead of the cold front will destabilize the atmosphere again this afternoon for more showers and thunderstorms. Another round of thunderstorms is expected on Wednesday as the cold front moves through the state.
More of the same tomorrow, but with slightly warmer afternoon temps in the upper 30s to lower 50s.
341 AM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022 High pressure will build into the region today. The high pressure will give way to a warm front bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms late tonight and Wednesday.
As the cold front over takes the dryline storms are expected to go up and push southeastward. Confidence is higher that this round of storms will play out as greater forcing will be available when the cold front approaches.
1201 AM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022 High pressure will bring dry conditions through the middle of the week.
Mainly dry and warmer weather is expected for Tuesday. Current observations show the cold front crossing through eastern OH and into PA. High pressure emerging behind the boundary by midday will allow for clearing cloud cover and warming conditions under a high angle April sunlight as highs reach the mid 60s.
344 AM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022 Weak upper level ridging will give way to deep southwesterly flow this afternoon in response to a deepening upper low over the Midwest. Gradients begin to tighten aloft as the aforementioned upper low moves eastward. 28 Wednesday night will start with a surge of moisture into western Georgia out ahead of a strong cold front.
The Pacific northwest is under a closed upper level low which is serving as the eastern anchor low of an omega block.
Warmer, above normal temperatures will prevail today, from the 80s east to the century mark and above out west. A cold front will overtake the dryline on Wednesday, moving through the CWA later in the day. However, downsloping ahead of the front will lead to toasty afternoon high temperatures Wednesday, ranging from the lower 90s east to a few degrees above the century mark out west.
Brief ridging builds over the region on Tuesday morning, with lighter south to southeasterly winds and VFR ceilings/visibility expected. Lows are expected to range from the upper 50s over south central Alabama to the lower to mid 60s across the remainder of the area. Upper level ridging will slide over the region later tonight and into Tuesday morning as a ridge axis over the southern Gulf amplifies. 3 inches on Tuesday and with ridging in place, most of the area will remain dry. Although, the ridging aloft will begin to slide east of the area Tuesday afternoon with southwesterly flow aloft regaining hold. On Wednesday, a broad upper trough will extend from the north central Plains south into the south central CONUS. At the surface, high pressure remains anchored over the western Atlantic allowing for a continued southerly flow and ample moisture advection.
(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Surface observations show a weak cold front has crept into the Permian Basin and stalled out near the I-20 corridor. Tomorrow an upper level low will move across the Great Basin and into the central Rocky Mountains.
Also noted is next feature of concern in the way of a large upper low situated over the Pacific NW. Ahead of the dry line dew points are progged to reach the lows 60s. By early Tuesday evening, a cold front drops out of SD into the CWA, boundary layer moisture convergence will aid with storms transitioning to linear mode/QLCS with the primary threat becoming straight line winds mainly south of the I-80 corridor. Tuesday morning some light precip with maybe a few rumbles of thunder may accompany a warm front lifting our of KS and into the southern CWA. On Wednesday, subsidence behind the exiting cold front will equate to dry but windy conditions.
Anticipate widespread below freezing overnight temperatures.
Lows are expected to range from the upper 50s over south central Alabama to the lower to mid 60s across the remainder of the area. Upper level ridging will slide over the region later tonight and into Tuesday morning as a ridge axis over the southern Gulf amplifies. 3 inches on Tuesday and with ridging in place, most of the area will remain dry. Although, the ridging aloft will begin to slide east of the area Tuesday afternoon with southwesterly flow aloft regaining hold. On Wednesday, a broad upper trough will extend from the north central Plains south into the south central CONUS. At the surface, high pressure remains anchored over the western Atlantic allowing for a continued southerly flow and ample moisture advection.
High pressure to the east will keep southeast winds in place for the next few days, with the sea breeze turning winds onshore each afternoon. A cold front approaches the waters late in the week bringing the next chance for showers and storms. High pressure ridging from the W Atlantic remains over the area for the next few days with southeast winds allowing continued moisture recovery therefore no fire weather concerns expected.
On Wednesday, a strong mid level short wave is expected to eject northeast around the parent upper low over the Dakotas.
Winds weaken tomorrow, but usher in much cooler temperatures. Winds across our western areas have relaxed since peaking this afternoon, in response to a strong surface cold front currently moving through southwest NV. Breezy to gusty northwest winds are expected to move in behind the cold front, with the front/wind shift currently moving through south- central Nye County. In general, winds behind the cold front have been less than the pre- frontal southwest winds we observed this afternoon, with gusts of 30-45 mph. Temperatures behind the front will be much cooler, dropping 15-20 degrees.
1257 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) Temperatures were a bit cooler in the Big Country this afternoon behind a weak cold front. South of the front winds were out of the west allowing temperatures to climb into the lower 90s.
137 AM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022 Weak cold front early this morning, quickly returning as a warm front Tuesday/Tuesday night.
329 AM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022 Early this morning there is a frontal boundary draped across portions of the OH valley associated with low pressure near Hudson Bay. At the upper levels, the flow is fairly zonal across the region, with an upper level trough over the western US. Weak ridging aloft is expected today, and the frontal boundary will slowly drift north as a warm front into northern portions of the OH valley by late in the day.
Also, the low-level 850mb jet will increase strengthening the isentropic lift as well. Expect winds to increase some of the next couple of hours as the low-level jet strengthens. Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 62 80 60 74 / 40 20 20 90 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 60 79 58 71 / 50 20 20 80 50 Oak Ridge, TN 76 59 79 57 72 / 50 20 20 80 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 73 54 78 57 69 / 50 10 20 50 60 TN.
Through the end of the week, relatively cool and unsettled weather will continue, as troughing remains across the Pacific NW.
419 AM PDT Tue Apr 12 2022 Today will be breezy and cooler for most areas.
A northeasterly pressure gradient remains over western Montana but wind gusts in the valleys have remained below 40 mph in most places, so most of the high wind warnings have been canceled.
/Issued 344 AM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022/ Weak upper level ridging will give way to deep southwesterly flow this afternoon in response to a deepening upper low over the Midwest. Gradients begin to tighten aloft as the aforementioned upper low moves eastward. 28 Wednesday night will start with a surge of moisture into western Georgia out ahead of a strong cold front.
526 AM MDT Tue Apr 12 2022 The approaching trough continues to sweep to the east, currently located in far southern MT just west of YNP. 5 inches have been observed just east of RIW overnight, while KLND remains in light precip just above freezing, resulting in mostly liquid precip. This portion of the winter storm threat will be most evident along I-90, which is prone to perpendicular north winds and remnant snowfall closer to the main deepening trough. The trough moves into the Dakotas tonight, allowing snowfall to end.
Surface analysis early this morning places a cold front/quasi-stationary boundary from the Ohio Valley back through Southeast Missouri, Northwest Arkansas, and the Red River Valley of Oklahoma and Texas. Models continue to indicate the potential for a significant severe weather episode across much of the Mid-South Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening as a strong upper level trough and associated cold front move through the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Much cooler temperatures and breezy northwest winds will settle over our region today in the wake of an exiting storm system.
307 AM PDT Tue Apr 12 2022 Sub-freezing overnight temperatures will impact irrigation systems, pets, people, and plants through Wednesday morning. The very cold air mass that arrived yesterday behind the cold front will leave us feeling quite cold with temperatures that are closer to January averages than mid-April. Convergence at the ridgetops along with residual moisture and cold air aloft may be enough to pop a few convective snow/snow pellet showers by this afternoon and evening in the Sierra.
Mainly dry and warmer weather is expected for Tuesday. Clearing skies are expected with high pressure quickly building in, backing winds to the south will result in above normal temperature for the day.
650 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022 A warm front continues near the Missouri border and continues to move north. A cold front will be approaching from the Plains. Today Through Wednesday Night An upper low over the northwest U. This upper low will continue to move east today as an upper ridge builds over the east coast. A warm front in the north part of the state will move into Missouri this morning. Patchy fog is expected north of the warm front. A cold front in the Rockies will move into the Plains tonight. The warm and moist air ahead of the cold front will destabilize the atmosphere again this afternoon for more showers and thunderstorms. Another round of thunderstorms is expected on Wednesday as the cold front moves through the state.
Gusty winds and much cooler temperatures are expected today as a disturbance moves through the region. Locally higher gusts up to 40 mph will be possible across the high terrain in southern Gila County. A cold front set to move through this morning will usher in much cooler and drier air with dewpoints falling into the teens and even single digits by this afternoon. Temperatures this afternoon will be running roughly 10-15 degrees cooler than yesterday as highs today only top out in the mid 70s. By Wednesday morning, temperatures will bottom out in the 40s across the lower deserts for lows.
Windy and cooler today. Both of the next 2 mornings have a decent chance to be 10 to 15 degrees below average for mid April (including freezing conditions in colder eastern valleys). Typical transition season pattern the second half of the week into the weekend, with the storm track north of our area and high pressure to our south over central Mexico. Strong and gusty winds today as broad low pressure settles over the region. Despite the moisture increase and relatively cooler temperatures, a Red Flag Warning has been posted today for the lower elevations east of Tucson for fire weather zones 151 and 152.
202 AM PDT Tue Apr 12 2022 Cooler temperatures will prevail over the coming days as additional rain and snow chances late week and into the weekend. Widespread 30s to low 40s are likely in the Sacramento Valley by sunrise with a few locations around Redding falling near the freezing mark. Valley highs today will be in the low /mid-60s, or approximately 5 to 10 deg F below early/mid-April climatology.
410 AM MST Tue Apr 12 2022 Gusty winds and much cooler temperatures are expected today as a disturbance moves through the region. Locally higher gusts up to 40 mph will be possible across the high terrain in southern Gila County. A cold front set to move through this morning will usher in much cooler and drier air with dewpoints falling into the teens and even single digits by this afternoon. Temperatures this afternoon will be running roughly 10-15 degrees cooler than yesterday as highs today only top out in the mid 70s. By Wednesday morning, temperatures will bottom out in the 40s across the lower deserts for lows.
Given nil rain chances and modest cloud cover, temperatures should have no problem realizing their potential highs of the lower 80s by early afternoon. With high pressure centered over the west- central Atlantic, it will remain breezy at times through this afternoon, although there will likely be occasional periods of eaks and lulls. From synopsis, high pressure over the western North Atlantic will result in moderate to fresh east to southeast breezes through Wednesday night.
Previous discussion: The 12z ensemble mean and deterministic guidance have all shifted north with the low track relative to recent model guidance.
244 AM PDT Tue Apr 12 2022 Low pressure will continue to move away from the Central California Interior today as weak high pressure builds over the region.
722 AM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022 High pressure out in the Atlantic Ocean will continue to ridge west across the Florida peninsula with a southeasterly flow across the area. High pressure to the east will keep southeast winds in place for the next few days, with the sea breeze turning winds onshore each afternoon. A cold front approaches the waters late in the week bringing the next chance for showers and storms. High pressure ridging from the W Atlantic remains over the area for the next few days with southeast winds allowing continued moisture recovery therefore no fire weather concerns expected.
This mid and upper level ridging across the area should keep conditions dry this afternoon and evening. Strong to perhaps severe convection in the lower MS will likely weaken as it as it reaches north AL into middle TN late this evening into the overnight hours. With dew points climbing into the upper 50s to lower 60s, and persistent southerly flow will keep temperatures very mild tonight in the lower 60s for lows. The models are a bit slower now with the progression of an expected QLCS along an approaching cold front.
335 AM MDT Tue Apr 12 2022 The approaching trough continues to sweep to the east, currently located in far southern MT just west of YNP. 5 inches have been observed just east of RIW overnight, while KLND remains in light precip just above freezing, resulting in mostly liquid precip. This portion of the winter storm threat will be most evident along I-90, which is prone to perpendicular north winds and remnant snowfall closer to the main deepening trough. The trough moves into the Dakotas tonight, allowing snowfall to end.
Temperatures are in the low/mid 60s, and could drop to upper 50s in some parts of the interior. High pressure centered over the far western Atlantic will continue moving eastward today, as pressure gradient and wind fetch increase across the southern FL peninsula and adjacent Atlantic waters.
922 AM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022 No changes to the forecast this morning as high pressure continues to dominate conditions over South FL. Another dry day expected across the region today as high pressure remains over the West Atlantic. Aloft, ridging will spread over the region today. The increase in H5 heights will point to a bit warmer today with temperatures warming into the upper 80s across the western interior and Gulf Coastal areas. This will keep the Atlantic Metro a few degrees cooler (generally around 80F) with the onshore flow. Still, the upper high will be relatively close, which will point to warm conditions. Again, the onshore flow will keep the east coast slightly cooler.
250 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022 Key Points: * Severe weather expected tonight as strong cold front barrels through the area.
349 PM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022 Weak high pressure from the north will prevail tonight into Wednesday.
332 PM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022 Discussion/Marine - Thunderstorms developing tonight A surface warm front down in the mid MS river valley will lift northward into lower MI tonight.
402 PM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022 Retreating high pressure will shift to the East Coast overnight. The Ohio Valley will be in the warm sector tonight ahead of approaching low pressure located over the upper Midwest.
Water vapor imagery was showing a deep trof crossing the northern Rockies approaching the western Dakotas. Surface reflection has deepened significantly since yesterday and is currently centered over south-central SD with an associated warm front extending into southeast SD and southwest MN. Another attendant warm front extended into north-central NE to about northwest MO. Early this evening, storm mode will shift in response to a cold front moving through the CWA. On Wednesday, subsidence behind the exiting cold front will equate to dry but windy conditions.
Windy and cooler today. Luckily, the daytime temperatures will bounce up to the mid-to-low 70s and then steadily climbing to the low 90s by the end of the week.