Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
352 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 High pressure will build to the north through early Wednesday morning, then pass off the New England coast later Wednesday into Wednesday night.
322 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 At 19Z the upper level low was located over southeast Kansas and northeast Oklahoma. Additional weak embedded energy was moving around the low circulation. Looks like much of the area will be dry, save the east central counties within the area of lift within the deformation axis on the north side of the low by sunset. Later tonight and into Wednesday across the eastern counties there will be a chance for showers with isolated storms as energy rotates around the backside of the upper low as it moves off to the east.
210 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Upper ridging is over the southwest part of the country with an upper low over northeast Oklahoma/southwest Missouri. Expect storms to develop across the higher terrain this afternoon and then develop into the Permian Basin later in the afternoon. Temperatures are expected to be a little cooler on Wednesday due to cooler 850 mb temperatures.
115 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 High pressure will builds over the Northeast through tonight, then shift off the New England coast Wednesday into Wednesday night.
/issued 425 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017/ Early morning sfc analysis shows high pressure centered off the east coast of Florida providing for our typical srly low-level flow this morning. With that said, forecast soundings indicate enough dry air and capping thanks to the ridging aloft to preclude convective development across our region today. Remainder of the forecast looks similar to previous issuances with small POPs continuing through the mid-week time frame as a trof digs through the Plains states, eventually expanding to the East Coast.
259 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Weak low pressure over central Kentucky continues to spin up scattered showers and rotate them southeast in areas along to the east of the Lakes.
This would shunt thunderstorms further into Southeast KS with probabilities slowly diminishing in west-east manner as the mid-level cyclone continues its slow trek east along/just north of the MO/AR border tonight. July 4th-Thu Night: Strong mid-upper ridging is still scheduled to build slowly east across the Rockies.
A strong upper level high over Utah with a ridge extending northward into western Montana will continue for the next several days, while an upper trough remains over the northeastern Pacific.
Convection will be mostly suppressed this afternoon based on the 12z KTAE sounding with a lot of mid-level dry air observed as well as the ridging that is in place.
The deep layer ridging that has resided across the area the last couple of day is in the process of moving north.
1151 AM MDT Tue Jul 4 2017 18Z TAF CYCLE High-based clouds will develop, first over the higher terrain and then into some lower elevations. Modest mid level moisture may yield a shower or stray storm over the high terrain, but little rainfall or impacts to ceiling/visibility are expected. The upper high will build northward this week and into the Four Corners region.
333 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 The ridge of high pressure that has been located over the region during the past several days will continue to dominate the weather across South Florida for the rest of the week and moving forward into the weekend.
This activity would likely be weakening as it enters the northern counties around 9-10 pm and will just mention isolated thunderstorms to cover this low chance of occurrence. For tomorrow, the ridge will be more defined to our west with the shear axis a bit farther south. Conditions should be fairly quiet tomorrow night with lows bottoming out in the lower to middle 70s.
804 PM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017 Low pressure centered off the Southern California coast will keep temperatures a few degrees below normal through midweek. Warmer for the latter half of the week as high pressure builds over the Great Basin. The sfc pressure gradients had turned weakly offshore from NV, and weakened a bit onshore to the lower deserts. The troughy pattern along the coast will continue through Tuesday with continued unseasonably deep marine layer influence.
A cold front will move into the area tomorrow morning, with additional storms expected to redevelop near the front tomorrow afternoon.
608 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017 Main forecast concern is on convective potential and timing with cold front dropping through the area late tonight and Tuesday. High pressure begins to build southward into the area late Tuesday night.
Clear through Tuesday morning as a weak upper ridge passes through the interior northwest. Later Tuesday an upper low off southern California will circulate moisture northward into Harney and Malheur Counties leading to a slight chance of thunderstorms.
Based on radar trends and model output, have kept PoPs in the low chance category across much of the area through the evening, then have spread likely to categorical PoPs from west to east overnight. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing early Tuesday morning, before the cold front settles southward to the I-70 corridor by late afternoon. Due to extensive cloud cover and rainfall, high temperatures will remain in the lower 80s. Once the front pushes into the Ohio River Valley, a cooler/drier airmass will take hold across the Midwest for the balance of the week.
Upper level flow quickly transitions to northwest on Tuesday as ridge axis begins to amplify across the desert southwest.
Approaching inverted trough axis will move into the southern peninsula. The resultant onshore, moist flow will keep convection active Tue night with trough/moisture axis along the Treasure Coast and adjacent coastal waters.
Soundings show vertical profile slightly warmer than previously progged at 750mb, which is producing a cap in Iowa that is hindering these storms from becoming sfc-based, thus limiting there severe potential attm. /Tuesday night through Monday/ Very well-advertised, broad area of high pressure moving in behind this rain system.
722 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 A cold front will push through the area tomorrow triggering showers and thunderstorms.
1016 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 A cold front will bring organized showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, then drier and cooler air moves in for the rest of the week. Timed the convection through the region in the after along what appears to be a pre-frontal trough.
With cold front still to our NW may see some redevelopment of showers and storms overnight. Another late night round of storms is also expected as the main cold front and upper trough. Drier and cooler air will overspread the area behind the front, with afternoon highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.
730 PM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017 A weak upper low just west of Point Conception will maintain overnight low clouds and fog, along with cooler than normal temperatures through late in the week. As the upper low moves inland.
Chance of showers and thunderstorms will gradually increase late tonight through Tuesday morning as a cold front approaches the area, first across northeast OK and northwest AR and eventually into points south by Tuesday afternoon. Scattered storms may impact NE OK again later tonight ahead of an approaching cold front.
644 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017 /00Z TAFS/ VFR conditions the next 24 hours under an upper level ridge. /issued 354 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017/ (Tonight through Tuesday) Temperatures will climb into the upper 90s by the end of this afternoon as the subtropical ridge in the western Atlantic has allowed for southerly flow to persist across the area. A strengthening upper level high pressure system remains over much of the area and will keep the rain chances off to our west. By Tuesday afternoon, the upper level high pressure system begins to migrate west allowing for northwest flow to return. Rain chances will increase Tuesday afternoon and evening as an area of low pressure moving through northeastern Canada will drag a cold front south toward west Texas.
/issued 219 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017/ We will be in a fairly active weather pattern the next seven days with rain chances increasing over most of the forecast area through midweek, and a shot at cooler than normal temperatures potentially through the remainder of August thereafter.
At the surface, a prefrontal trough was noted from northwest KS into the eastern Dakotas with a cold front over western ND and into eastern WY. Models have trended slightly faster with the frontal system and some of the high resolution models show precip exiting the forecast area to the southeast by 7 am Tuesday. Have trended highs cooler by a degree or two with models showing decent low level cold air advection through the afternoon. Have forecast highs in the lower and middle 80s. By Tuesday night, the mid-level trough will be shifting into the northeastern U.
805 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 A cold front will bring organized showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, then drier and cooler air moves in for the rest of the week. Timed the convection through the region in the after along what appears to be a pre-frontal trough.
Convection allowing models indicate this activity will start sliding east in a couple of hours with attention then shifting to our north where a cold front is set to arrive later tonight. Cool high pressure will quickly build into the region during the afternoon tomorrow with dry conditions persisting right through mid/late week.
At the surface, cold front stretches from extreme northeast Nebraska into northeast Colorado. Cold front is expected to sweep through the area Tue morning and by out of the forecast area by the early afternoon hours. A much cooler and especially drier airmass will be welcomed across the region behind the front with highs in mid to upper 80s Tue and low to mid 80s for Wed and Thu. Expect scattered to numerous clusters of showers and thunderstorms to impact the region this evening and overnight, as a strong cold front approaches from the northwest, interacting with rich monsoonal moisture streaming in from the southwest.
Thunderstorms over the lower Wabash River Valley, have gusted out per the latest VWX radar scans. Temperatures dropped anywhere from 4-10 degrees during the eclipse! Temps are starting to recover, however, and will top out in the low 90s this afternoon. Lows will be in the low/mid 70s. Rain chances ramp up across southern IN/northern KY Tuesday morning ahead of a strong cold front.
716 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 Quiet weather tonight under a mild humid southwest flow with high pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast. Very warm temperatures continue on Tuesday, but an approaching cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon and evening tapering off Tuesday night.
Did see temperatures reach the low to mid 90s today, and with in place humidity, heat index values on Tuesday will again be around 100 to near 105 in spots. Tuesday afternoon in the north, evening to the overnight for central and southern AR, convection chances do increase as a cold front slowly sags southeast. Later Tuesday to Tuesday night, a cold front will slowly move southeast and develop scattered showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure builds into the region tonight which will help winds to diminish this evening.
1030 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 High pressure will build to the south of the region through tonight before sliding to the east on Tuesday.
753 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 High pressure centered off the coast will cause increased moisture in a southeast to south flow. However, the moisture will remain shallow because of upper ridging and limit thunderstorm coverage.
/issued 644 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017/ /00Z TAFS/ VFR conditions the next 24 hours under an upper level ridge. /issued 354 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017/ (Tonight through Tuesday) Temperatures will climb into the upper 90s by the end of this afternoon as the subtropical ridge in the western Atlantic has allowed for southerly flow to persist across the area. A strengthening upper level high pressure system remains over much of the area and will keep the rain chances off to our west. By Tuesday afternoon, the upper level high pressure system begins to migrate west allowing for northwest flow to return. Rain chances will increase Tuesday afternoon and evening as an area of low pressure moving through northeastern Canada will drag a cold front south toward west Texas.
1017 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 High pressure centered off the coast will cause increased moisture in a southeast to south flow. However, the moisture will remain shallow because of upper ridging and limit thunderstorm coverage.
924 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017 A cold front currently extends from low pressure over northern Wisconsin into the central Plains. Based on radar trends and model output, have kept PoPs in the low chance category across much of the area through the evening, then have spread likely to categorical PoPs from west to east overnight. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing early Tuesday morning, before the cold front settles southward to the I-70 corridor by late afternoon. Due to extensive cloud cover and rainfall, high temperatures will remain in the lower 80s. Once the front pushes into the Ohio River Valley, a cooler/drier airmass will take hold across the Midwest for the balance of the week.
Pressures with the low don't look extreme enough though to lead to winds getting much stronger than what we are seeing now.
1135 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017 Main forecast concern is on convective potential and timing with cold front dropping through the area late tonight and Tuesday. High pressure begins to build southward into the area late Tuesday night.
525 PM MDT Mon Aug 21 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure and cold front now southeast of the CWA, with high pressure over southwest SK. Upper level analysis shows trough over south central Canada with west-northwest flow over the Northern Plains. Much drier air is slowly filtering in from the north and west, with dewpoints ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s over northeast WY and far western SD, to the low to mid 60s over south central SD.
900 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 A cold front will push through the area tomorrow triggering showers and thunderstorms.
Water vapor satellite imagery and model analyses continue to show a closed low off the southern California coast. This moisture combined with some modest instability led to the development of showers and thunderstorms once again today mainly over the higher terrain and across portions of southern and central Utah.
Also, the main upper-trough will swing through the Northland this evening and overnight. Drier and cooler air will filter into the Northland amidst the northwest flow overnight. Cooler mid to late week with a chance for rain showers this weekend. On the synoptic scale northwest flow will prevail across the Upper Midwest mid to late week as a longwave mid-level ridge approaches the Great Plains. A broad area of high pressure will build over the Upper Great Lakes, then track eastward this weekend.
Dry air and light winds will allow for cooler overnight temperatures. High pressure builds into the region tonight which will help winds to diminish this evening.
Cold front entering the nw FA at this time and will propagate east clearing the eastern FA by midnight. High pressure will build into the FA tomorrow for a sunny and breezy day with temperatures running a bit below average. At the surface, it looks like more of a backdoor cold front scenario with minimal CAPE (maybe 500 J/kg far southeast) and thickness packing from north to south.
Elsewhere broad trough across southern Canada into the northern Plains with PV anomaly just over the Canadian border. TSRA development should exit the area along with the front by midnight or so and would therefore expect a drier and cooler airmass in place tmrw. High pressure builds across the western CONUS bringing a northwest flow across the central US through mid week. The ridge then flattens out towards the end of the week.
955 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 High pressure moving off the Mid Atlantic coast will bring a warm and increasingly humid southerly flow to the region into Tuesday. A strong cold front will move through the region late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Cooler and drier conditions will return for the second half of the week. Activity continues to weaken overall but still some local heavy rainers over the lower Susq River Valley early tonight. Patchy fog expected especially over portions of the Lower Susq. Mins will range from the lower 60s north to the lower 70s southeast. The front should bring in much cooler weather Tuesday night.
Mid level trough axis extended from near the southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba border back toward WY. Cold front trailed back behind the MCS, so there should be some additional storm development along and behind the front as it pushes through the area tonight.
interior dew points mixing out into the lower 70s affording near 100 F heat indices. Stronger western Texas ridging nudging eastward may push mid to late afternoon interior temperatures up into the middle 90s.
816 PM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017 A weak upper low just west of Point Conception will maintain overnight low clouds and fog, along with cooler than normal temperatures through late in the week. As the upper low moves inland.
Cooler air is pushing over the plains this afternoon, and will likely keep that area too stable for convection.
Attention turns to the cold front over the Northern Plains tonight. Cooler and less humid air will filter into the area Tuesday night leading to lows about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
/Issued 305 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017/ Weak upper ridging persists this afternoon across the region, however deepening moisture has resulted a slightly better coverage of convection. Should see a bit more coverage tomorrow afternoon and evening as the upper ridge breaks down and moisture continues to increase. Convection diminishes tomorrow evening, but approaching cold front brings POPs back up between midnight and sunrise across the north.
As expected, another round of diurnal showers and thunderstorms developed over the higher terrain and as has been the trend over the past several days, most convection should end after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. The axis of the upper level ridge attempts to build across the length of the Rockies on Tuesday as the SoCal low remains planted just off the California coast. Elsewhere, expect typical pop-and-drop summer convection to fire off over the rest of the higher terrain as a result of daytime heating and residual moisture.
1007 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 High pressure continues into Tuesday. Strong cold front late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Cooler and drier high pressure into the weekend. High pressure lingers into Tuesday, but then a well defined system translates through Tuesday evening.
Otherwise, our eyes turn to the sharp cold frontal boundary currently draped across Iowa into Nebraska, where there is a 20F (or close to it) temp and dew point drop behind it.
High pressure will expand across the region late tonight into Tuesday, which will lead to a rather pleasant day with relatively light winds, mild temperatures in the 70s, and sunny skies. Upper level northwest flow regime will continue to dominate the weather pattern moving into the later half of the week, with ridging to our west gradually shifting eastward across the Intermountain West.
Tuesday we will begin to see the influence of an upper level trough retrograding across the Northern Gulf Coast with a weakening upper ridge across the Lower Miss Valley.
This high pressure area will build over our region through tonight and Tuesday. Much drier air will advect in with this high pressure area with dew points in the 40s on Tuesday.
1156 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 High pressure will build south of the area this evening. Low pressure will approach from the west on Tuesday.
A dry push of boundary layer air characterized by dewpoints in the 50s and upper 40s Tuesday night will will advance into the lower plains, creating a zone of baroclinicity immediately south of our area. The model consensus maintains a somewhat seasonal temperatures spread, with highs just a few degrees below normal for late August, in the mid 80s, and lows generally in the low 60s. A cold front will pass across the TAF sites after 09z.
After the passage of the cold front, temperatures will drop to below normal for a bit and dry weather can be expected from mid week into the weekend. With dewpoints near or in the lower 70s temperatures not to fall much further. A cold front will approach the area on Tuesday afternoon. Instability will increase ahead of the front through the day and with forcing from the front and increasing winds at 850 mb could see some organization to the storms during the afternoon/early evening hours ahead of/along the cold front. By Tuesday night the cold front will be reaching the border if its not already through the area, and thus kept a chance for showers and storms in the southeast counties but tapered to dry in the northwest.
650 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017 For the 00Z TAFs, there will be a renewed threat of showers and tstms during this TAF cycle as a cold front moves south across the OK and TX Panhandles Tuesday morning.
/issued 424 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017/ Latest water vapor satellite imagery/upper air analysis showed a deep layer ridge axis across the Southeastern States, with an upper low spinning over the North Central Gulf of Mexico. At the SFC, high pressure extended from the Carolinas into Central TX. While most of this activity is expected to wane with the loss of diurnal instability, have left a small PoP over ERN zones as the upper low over the NC Gulf continues to track slowly WWD. This feature is progged to continue WWD on TUE while weakening over the NW Gulf Coast Region, while a robust upper trof digs into the ERN CONUS, eroding and shunting southward the ridge over the Southeastern States.
/NF/ Late this afternoon through Tuesday: A strong mid level ridge will maintain the hot and humid airmass over the ArkLaMiss in the near term. There is sufficient instability (ML CAPE near 3500 J/KG) over northwest/north central portions of the forecast area for scattered, strong thunderstorm activity, and seabreeze convergence related deep convection is working toward the Highway 98/Pine Belt area of south central MS. There may be a limited threat for heat danger Tuesday as well given little change in the pattern/airmass, but it appears that slight weakening of the mid level ridge may help to keep the low level thermal ridge/sfc drybulb temps a degree or two cooler.
Clear skies continue tonight with ridging firmly entrenched across the northern Rockies. Lows will fall into the low to mid 50s tonight.
At the surface, cold front stretches from extreme northeast Nebraska into northeast Colorado. Cold front is expected to sweep through the area Tue morning and by out of the forecast area by the early afternoon hours. A much cooler and especially drier airmass will be welcomed across the region behind the front with highs in mid to upper 80s Tue and low to mid 80s for Wed and Thu. Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to impact the region overnight, as a strong cold front approaches from the northwest, interacting with rich monsoonal moisture streaming in from the southwest.
An upper level low will continue to push northwestward through the central Gulf, but deep layer ridging will generally persist to its northeast across our area. Overnight lows will be in the lower-mid 70s inland, with upper 70s along the Gulf Coast.
Isolated showers or thunderstorms will be possible across northeast OK and perhaps northwest AR as early as about 10z, but better overall probabilities will come with arrival of cold front into northern areas early Tuesday afternoon.
523 PM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017 A weak trough of low pressure over the Channel Islands will continue to keep a cooler than normal air mass in place through midweek.
Another late night round of storms is also expected as the main cold front and upper trough. Drier and cooler air will overspread the area behind the front, with afternoon highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.