Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Mid to high clouds may aid to blanket at least the southern 2/3rds over the next few hours, but a general clearing to the northwest could allow temperatures to cool a bit further than the rest with lows ranging from around 0 over northeast Missouri to the low teens in southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
936 AM EST Fri Feb 4 2022 The cold front is almost through the CWA. Canadian high pressure will then build southeast into the region late Friday and Saturday. Front has cleared the Lower Susq/southeast Piedmont and temps are tumbling through the 30s there with the precipitation transition taking place as expected. Also extended the Advisory for the Lower Susq where slow transition and lingering isolated glaze is possible through early to mid afternoon as temperatures plunge. Temps will move little across the central and northwest from current readings, while the southeast continues to drop to the lower 30s. Any snow after dark will be SHSN very close to LE and in the highest elevs of Somerset & Cambria Cos. Surface ridging and low pwats will combine to keep PoPs near zero through most of the forecast period.
240 AM PST Fri Feb 4 2022 Another cold morning with sub-freezing temperatures are likely in the central portion of the San Joaquin valley on Friday.
719 AM EST Fri Feb 4 2022 The cold front is almost through the CWA. Canadian high pressure will then build southeast into the region late Friday and Saturday. Seems like mainly sleet out the door here, but has also been mixed with (freezing) rain and snow at times. All headlines will continue as is, with the Lower Susq still yet to see the freezing/frozen stuff. Any snow after dark will be SHSN very close to LE and in the highest elevs of Somerset & Cambria Cos. Surface ridging and low pwats will combine to keep PoPs near zero through most of the forecast period.
Sfc ridging will build in and very cold temperatures are expected overnight. Sfc ridging will begin to shift east by Saturday night leading to a return of srly flow.
Highs this afternoon will barely break above freezing with mid to upper 30s for most places. As the clear skies and light winds continue overnight, temperatures will tumble back down to the low teens. Light winds and slightly warmer temperatures mean Saturday morning won't be as cold as Friday morning, although wind chills in the single digits are still expected.
Temperatures will be quite a bit warmer than yesterday though, but still plenty cold, with highs this afternoon in the 30s.
2) Patchy freezing fog across the San Luis Valley early this morning. Bitterly cold conditions remain in place early this morning across the area with the lowest wind chills approaching 25 below zero currently occurring across the Wind Chill Advisory area. A moderating air mass supported by backing low/mid flow to more of a westerly direction and expected sunny skies today will help provide warmer temps today.
221 AM PST Fri Feb 4 2022 Benign and dry weather will persist with a blocking ridge deflecting the storm track away from the Sierra and western Nevada through at least the first half of the month. Temps will max out to near average, so it'll Ridging builds in over the extreme western portion of the CONUS, becoming even more amplified by mid-week. This will continue to deflect the storm track well to our north - keeping warmer than normal afternoon temps, chilly nights, and precipitation-free weather conditions. * Easterly winds will remain gusty at times (25-35 kts) along the Sierra ridges through the weekend.
Unfortunately we will struggle to get above freezing today and that will allow for ice to linger for an extra day, but we will slowly warm up over the weekend and sun will increase.
Current surface analysis places frontal boundary stretching from eastern North Dakota into central South Dakota, while high pressure drops through Saskatchewan. Upper level analysis places trough dropping through the upper midwest nudging into the plains, while ridge remains over the Pacific Northwest, with a staunch short wave noted offshore.
Temperatures will warm to above freezing for most of the area today, although some spots in the Hill Country will likely be at or below freezing this afternoon as some residual low-clouds hang on there for much of the day.
627 AM EST Fri Feb 4 2022 The cold front is almost through the CWA. Canadian high pressure will then build southeast into the region late Friday and Saturday. All headlines will continue as is, with the Lower Susq still yet to see the freezing/frozen stuff. Any snow after dark will be SHSN very close to LE and in the highest elevs of Somerset & Cambria Cos. Surface ridging and low pwats will combine to keep PoPs near zero through most of the forecast period.
444 AM EST Fri Feb 4 2022 High pressure ridging across the area will shift east as a cold front pushes into the CWA later today.
These conditions will stick around through this morning, so slick conditions will be possible with freezing fog. Snow will wind down late Friday night as the system moves out of the region and a strong ridge begins to move onshore. A tightening pressure gradient with the low pressure moving across Canada and the strong high pressure over the eastern Pacific will create gusty winds across the Cascades, the Blues, the Columbia Basin, the Palouse and the Spokane area. The strongest winds will be for the Cascades and the Blue mountain ridge tops with gusts up to 50 to 60 mph possible. Strong high pressure moves inland Saturday.
359 AM CST Fri Feb 4 2022 A clipper-type low pressure system and associated cold front are currently moving across the central and eastern Dakotas early this morning. Some light snow/flurries have been observed in spots in association with this system and it's upper s/w trough. Conditions should gradually improve this afternoon as the center of a 1040mb high pressure system builds south and eastward fairly quickly into our forecast area. This high is expected to continue pushing east and out of our area quickly tonight with return flow setting up once again.
357 AM MST Fri Feb 4 2022 Friday will be mostly clear beneath weak ridging and a dry, northerly to northwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures will start to warm, with highs back into the 30s across the plains and teens and 20s in the high country.
327 AM CST Fri Feb 4 2022 Have been monitoring precipitation moving through the Northern Plains into western Minnesota overnight associated with a digging mid level trough as evident on water vapor satellite imagery. Have adjusted precipitation potential farther south according to new guidance, however it will be difficult to overcome the low level dry air further south than that.
Patches of LIFR conditions in freezing fog is only seen in Torrance County early this morning. There may be a better chance for LIFR conditions in freezing fog later tonight, following some melting of snow during the day today. Despite abundant sunshine, temperatures will struggle to rise much above freezing due to the widespread snow cover.
601 AM CST Fri Feb 4 2022 Have been monitoring precipitation moving through the Northern Plains into western Minnesota overnight associated with a digging mid level trough as evident on water vapor satellite imagery. Have adjusted precipitation potential farther south according to new guidance, however it will be difficult to overcome the low level dry air further south than that.
While slightly warmer than yesterday, another cold morning is in store as temperatures approach or fall below freezing area-wide.
438 AM CST Fri Feb 4 2022 (Issued 437 AM CST Fri Feb 4 2022) Today and Tonight: An upper trough is digging through the Upper Midwest this morning. Winds will be a little gusty out of the northwest this evening in the wake of the cold front.
714 AM EST Fri Feb 4 2022 Deep layer ridging will slowly release control of the area today as an upper trough with an accompanying cold front pushes in from the northwest.
Northwest flow aloft today brings a trough east of the Rockies over the weekend. The first short wave trough rotating through the main trough moves east of the Rockies and across the northern Plains on Saturday.
Low pressure was found across the Middle Atlantic States. Aloft water vapor shows an upper trough in place over the upper midwest with an axis stretching south across IA and MO. trended highs a degree or two cooler than the previous forecast. Cold/dry advection in the low levels through the morning will work against more substantial amounts, especially toward mid- late morning and onward. At least some mid clouds will remain until trough axis passes early evening. It is possible that brief snow flurries may be observed with forcing and ribbon of deeper moisture right along the trough axis this evening, but this will be non-measurable. Significant snow pack and continued northwesterly flow and cold advection will limit warming today and we are on the low end of model guidance for high temperatures.
The good news is that the sunny skies are helping temperatures to climb above the freezing mark over most areas. The not-so-good news for later this afternoon or early evening is that temperatures will drop to the freezing mark across the Hill Country and by midnight across the rest of the area. The issue with this situation is the re-freeze of water on surfaces, especially over bridges and overpasses. Otherwise, another cold night is in store with lows in the teens to the lower 20s. Saturday's highs are forecast to reach the lower 40s across the Hill Country and range from the mid-40s to lower 50s elsewhere.
322 PM EST Fri Feb 4 2022 The cold front is almost through the CWA. Canadian high pressure will then build southeast into the region late Friday and Saturday. Mixed precipitation is tapering off over the Lower Susq and no additional impacts are expected from this latest winter system. Remaining Advisories over the Lower Susq were allowed to expire at 3 PM. Lighter snowfall associated with moisture challenged upper trough swinging through the central GLAKS will persist over the Alleghenies tonight with coating to 1 inch amounts in most locations. High pressure to provide fair but cold conditions Saturday. Surface ridging and low pwats will combine to keep PoPs near zero through most of the forecast period.
(This afternoon through Saturday night) Temperatures have finally risen above freezing this afternoon in most locations across West TX and southeast NM.
This band has pivoted closer to Key West, and trends later this morning will be watched for the possibly inclusion of slight rain chances for the Lower Keys. Light northerly winds, in combination with warm moist over over relatively cooler Gulf waters north of the Lower Keys and offshore mainland Monroe County could assist developing sea fog late tonight through early Saturday.
The cold front is now to our east with northwesterly winds advecting cold air southward. Temperatures will fall into the low 20s north to low 30s far southeast. A mid level trough axis will swing through the area tomorrow, and will finally see clearing skies by early Saturday morning. Cold advection continues, and despite sunny skies, temperatures will only warm into the lower 40s north to around 50 degrees southeast.
Weak low pressure and an arctic front will pass along with it. Gehring (Issued 437 AM CST Fri Feb 4 2022) Today and Tonight: An upper trough is digging through the Upper Midwest this morning. Winds will be a little gusty out of the northwest this evening in the wake of the cold front.
Clearing skies today has finally increased temperatures into the low 40s across South Texas, but these slightly warmer temperatures will not last overnight. A hard freeze is expected across the inland areas, with temperatures in the low 20s overnight. warmer? Temperatures will only drop to the upper 20s tonight, so a Freeze Warning is in place from this evening into Saturday morning. Abundant sunshine Saturday will result in slightly warmer temperatures with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.
306 PM EST Fri Feb 4 2022 Periods of light snow remain possible through early Saturday morning before Arctic high pressure builds in. Portions of western IN and west-central OH will observe the coldest wind chills, but increased cloud coverage has trended low temperatures a smidge warmer compared to previous forecasts. Arctic high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley during the day and offers a period of dry conditions with very cold temperatures. High pressure quickly drifts eastward Saturday night, allowing surface winds to shift out of the south.
Water vapor satellite imagery at midday shows broad longwave troughing over the majority of the CONUS, with a pair of vorticity maxima, one over the northern Midwest and another over the southern plains, emanating through the flow. A little bit of relatively cold air reinforcement arrives again Saturday as another trough translates eastward across the northwest sections of the CONUS resulting in a weak front pushing into the region Saturday night.
1100 AM MST Fri Feb 4 2022 Updated Aviation Discussion Southwesterly winds will develop over the region today, allowing for warmer temperatures to gradually move into the region. Westerly flow aloft should be enough to bring the warmer air into these areas, though today's forecast highs may not be achieved until late this afternoon. The remainder of the forecast remains on track, including the High Wind Warnings over the Rocky Mountain Front and north- central MT. Patchy blowing snow will continue in East Glacier and surrounding areas through early this afternoon, when temperatures rise above freezing.
Winds will be dying down through the day but high temperatures will not be warming much, so main change with this update was to adjust the high temperature for today to reflect the max temp that will occur during afternoon hours. The actual high temperatures will not occur until the late evening tonight as a stout warm front begins to move through the area, but it felt unrepresentative to advertise those temperatures as the highs today when in reality, it won't be that warm for the majority of the day. Current surface analysis places frontal boundary stretching from eastern North Dakota into central South Dakota, while high pressure drops through Saskatchewan. Upper level analysis places trough dropping through the upper midwest nudging into the plains, while ridge remains over the Pacific Northwest, with a staunch short wave noted offshore.
1108 AM EST Fri Feb 4 2022 The cold front is almost through the CWA. Canadian high pressure will then build southeast into the region late Friday and Saturday. Temps continue to fall through the 30s over the lower Susq with some light mixed precipitation occurring. Advisories remain in place through early to mid afternoon from the WC/C Mountains to the Lower Susq, respectively. Temps will move little across the central and northwest from current readings, while the southeast continues to drop to the lower 30s. Any snow after dark will be SHSN very close to LE and in the highest elevs of Somerset & Cambria Cos. Surface ridging and low pwats will combine to keep PoPs near zero through most of the forecast period.
At the surface, high pressure sits over the central Dakotas, with a trough over MT/WY, and a warm front draped across our CWA.
915 AM MST Fri Feb 4 2022 Southwesterly winds will develop over the region today, allowing for warmer temperatures to gradually move into the region. Westerly flow aloft should be enough to bring the warmer air into these areas, though today's forecast highs may not be achieved until late this afternoon. The remainder of the forecast remains on track, including the High Wind Warnings over the Rocky Mountain Front and north- central MT. Patchy blowing snow will continue in East Glacier and surrounding areas through early this afternoon, when temperatures rise above freezing.
Water vapor satellite imagery at midday shows broad longwave troughing over the majority of the CONUS, with a pair of vorticity maxima, one over the northern Midwest and another over the southern plains, emanating through the flow.
346 PM EST Fri Feb 4 2022 A cold front will push offshore tonight. High pressure will extend across the region this week as a series of low pressure systems develop and remain offshore. Rest of today and tonight: A cold front will make its way southward and into the region over the next few hours. While a slight break in the rain is then expected, another round will move through the area into the overnight with the passage of the cold front. High pressure will extend across the region through the weekend.
Surface analysis this afternoon reveals an elongated area of low pressure just east of the Appalachians in VA/NC and a trailing cold front stretching into northwest FL. We won't see any sort of precipitation from this clipper as the low level will be too dry to support anything reaching the ground. if we end up being 'clearer' than anticipated, temps will likely be colder than forecast as nearby high pressure will keep winds light overnight. Southern Kentucky may just barely get above the freezing mark. Min temps will be generally cooler than normal.
Behind the cold front, we continue to see patchy light snow persisting across the area. Any remaining lake effect snow showers will taper off by Saturday afternoon with high pressure taking over and drier air moving in.
222 PM CST Fri Feb 4 2022 The main trough hanging over the Middle Mississippi Valley today will continue to push southeast toward the Ohio and Tennessee Valley's tonight. It's possible that southeast KS sees some patchy freezing fog tonight though confidence isn't high at this times so did not add to the grids.
Some indications that may see some shallow patchy freezing fog late tonight, with southwest Oklahoma and north Texas having the best chance. Still should see temperatures rise above freezing for a short time Saturday afternoon.
Still expect a much warmer air mass to begin to move in late today. A clipper-type low pressure system and associated cold front are currently moving across the central and eastern Dakotas early this morning. Some light snow/flurries have been observed in spots in association with this system and it's upper s/w trough. Conditions should gradually improve this afternoon as the center of a 1040mb high pressure system builds south and eastward fairly quickly into our forecast area. This high is expected to continue pushing east and out of our area quickly tonight with return flow setting up once again.
Surface analysis early this afternoon shows a strong ridge of high pressure stretching from the southern plains to lower Michigan. A weak area of low pressure was found over western WI with a trailing cold front across IA to NB. GOES16 shows high clouds drifting east across Indiana with clearing skies found upstream under the ridge axis over MO and IA. Weak ridging appears to push across Indiana within the mid levels with subsidence as a weak low pushes across Ontario. Within the lower levels. and by Saturday night a warm front associated with the low to the north is suggested to push across Indiana.
Cold front will move southeast across forecast area this afternoon and evening. A wide range in lows is expected Tonight, with readings falling into the lower 40s inland SE GA, while only falling into the lower to mid 50s south and east of a line from KJAX to KGNV. High pressure will build from the northwest then north through the day on Saturday. Drier and cooler air will filter into area during the day, with decreasing cloud cover from northwest to southeast. An inverted trough will begin to develop along the coast late in the day, which could provide for a few showers near the coast toward sunset. But along the NE FL, where it is expected to remain mostly cloudy, day time highs will not be more than a few degrees warmer than morning lows.
Somewhat concerned that snow cover will keep temperatures from warming above freezing across the plains, however high res models still suggest some warming today with highs on the plains topping out in the mid 30s to around 40 as west to northwesterly surface winds pick up based on HRRR and NamNest. 2) Patchy freezing fog across the San Luis Valley early this morning. Bitterly cold conditions remain in place early this morning across the area with the lowest wind chills approaching 25 below zero currently occurring across the Wind Chill Advisory area. A moderating air mass supported by backing low/mid flow to more of a westerly direction and expected sunny skies today will help provide warmer temps today.
(This evening through Saturday) High pressure is filling nicely this afternoon across west Texas while clear skies are prevailing on the backside of the upper trough that brought us our week of wintry weather. Tomorrow, southwesterly return flow at the surface will help to bring slightly warmer high temperatures in the mid to upper 40s. However, locations that still have some snow cover will see cooler temperatures in the low 40s.
With anomalously strong ridging overhead not likely to weaken or move away any time soon, dry conditions will continue, with warmer than average daytime highs and cool nighttime lows in the valleys, along with area of valley fog, especially along the coast. A thermal trough will redevelop Saturday, producing another round of gusty north winds and steep seas.
The clouds will increase today, especially across northern zones as an upper trough pushes into the Pac NW. Lower clouds will erred across the western Magic Valley, but are expected to be more stubborn across the lower terrain of e-central Oregon and upper Weiser basin.
, Jarbo Gap), valleys, and ridgetops in the mountains tonight and into Saturday.
1145 AM CST Fri Feb 4 2022 Have been monitoring precipitation moving through the Northern Plains into western Minnesota overnight associated with a digging mid level trough as evident on water vapor satellite imagery. Have adjusted precipitation potential farther south according to new guidance, however it will be difficult to overcome the low level dry air further south than that.
This puts the forecast on track for "warmer" highs in the mid to upper 30s this afternoon over plains and I-25 corridor and teens/20s over most of the high country. Friday will be mostly clear beneath weak ridging and a dry, northerly to northwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures will start to warm, with highs back into the 30s across the plains and teens and 20s in the high country.
/issued 714 AM EST Fri Feb 4 2022/ Deep layer ridging will slowly release control of the area today as an upper trough with an accompanying cold front pushes in from the northwest.
/Tonight through Saturday Night/ Cloud cover is slowly trying to clear out across our northwest zones this afternoon but as of 1 pm, we are still at or below freezing across much of Northeast Texas and we just rose to 32 degrees now in Shreveport. The low temperature forecast tonight is very much dependent on the cloud cover breaking across our region needless to say.
By Tonight, the very strung out and positively tilted upper trough will finally make its way over the area and push drier air in. At the surface, the cold front has pushed well offshore at this point as high pressure builds over Texas leading to strengthening northwesterly flow at the surface. IFR ceilings will prevail across the area today in the wake of the cold front that moved through.
Saturday will bring sunny skies, but temperatures are forecast to only warm into the low to mid 30s.
Dry and colder to end the week with morning lows around freezing to well below freezing for much of SE AZ. High pressure will bring a gradual warming trend over the weekend.
An upper level short wave trough moving southeastward over Colorado tomorrow will induce quick strengthening of a lee surface cyclone in southeastern Colorado and of the lee trough extending southward across eastern New Mexico.
Additional post-frontal snow showers during the evening will bring up to an inch to the lowlands of Shoshone county and a couple inches to the mountains of the Idaho Panhandle.