Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A sharp cold front working across the region this morning will be accompanied by rain, high elevation snow and gusty winds. The front will push through the Lower Treasure Valley by 5AM reaching the Western Magic Valley by 8AM. The next system is quick to follow with a warm front pushing into southeast Oregon Saturday morning where precipitation will start as snow or rain/snow mix for all but the lowest elevations in Malheur county. The warm front and accompanying precipitation pushes into southwest Idaho during the day. Winds will shift to the south- southeast behind the warm front.
641 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 Departing high pressure will still be able to maintain clear skies (below 25 kft) today and tonight. There will be a slight amplification to the mid level ridge axis extending from the Se US into the ern Great Lakes today as a progressive mid level trough axis moves into the nrn Rockies. The influence of the low level anti cyclone across the Upper Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic will sustain very dry air across Se Mi today, while southerly return flow advects a little warmer air mass into Lower Mi. Despite the relatively cold early morning temps, the low level warm air advection under full sun today should boost highs into the low to mid 70s. The southerly gradient will increase tonight as the low level anticylone shifts toward the east coast.
136 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 Dry high pressure will hold over the forecast area through Saturday.
300 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 Slightly cooler weather is expected today in the wake of a cold front but temperatures are still expected to be above normal.
443 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 A large and persistent area of high pressure at the surface and aloft will remain over the eastern CONUS through the upcoming weekend.
325 AM MDT Fri Oct 20 2017 Upper ridging continues across the eastern two thirds of the CWA with a trough moving onshore the Pacific NW coast. Gusty southwest flow over the High Plains will continue to bring much warmer than average temps to the area today. Upper trough will quickly approach today into tonight.
419 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017 At 3 AM, a coastal trough was located from about Port Arthur to Galveston to Palacios. At 850 mb, high pressure was located over the middle Tennessee valley and the flow around this feature was bring a plume of deeper moisture into SE TX.
113 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather through the weekend. High pressure at the surface and aloft will again spread eastward across the Upper Ohio Valley today. High pressure will remain anchored through the weekend, keeping it warm and dry.
Deteriorating marine conditions for the South Florida waters High pressure over the southeastern United States and a stalled frontal boundary draped over Cuba and the Bahamas will provide a tightening gradient that will allow the wind over South Florida to pick up heading into the weekend.
A strong cold front is expected to push southward toward the Panhandles Saturday morning. The post-frontal airmass is expected to drop our high temperatures into the lower 70s and upper 60s.
133 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 A weak and dry cold front will wash out overnight, while high pressure strengthens over the Ohio Valley into Friday. High pressure will then extend across the region into Saturday.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): 500 mb high pressure centered just east of the Mississippi River delta at the start of the short term forecast period will gradually shift east-northeast as a deep 500 mb trough moves into the Central Plains. Dry weather over the entire BRO CWFA today will yield to isolated showers over only the Lower Texas coastal waters tonight and Friday courtesy of this pattern.
Occasional sustained Sly winds 25G35-40 mph expected to occur in the Nrn half of the Sac Vly where we just issued a wind advsry until 4 am Fri as the cold front/ frontal band moves quickly through the area. Trough will shift east Friday and Saturday, lingering moisture will will keep a few showers over the mountains through Saturday morning.
Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicate a ridge extending from the Gulf Coast into the Northern Plains with drier along this axis. Upper level heights will continue to increase today as the ridge axis moves overhead. The ridge axis will pass to the east tonight with overnight temperatures around 5-10 degrees warmer than last night with forecast lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.
As the low continues to propagate eastward any pcpn which does reach the far se should exit this evening. With high pressure center just north of the international border Thursday night will have watch the frost potential as most areas to dip into the 30s.
/issued 329 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017/ Deep layer subsidence was well established early this morning south of a vigorous trough now lifting across western Kansas. Following transient upper ridging today, cyclonic SW flow will resume in earnest on Thursday south of another upper low slowing and becoming vertically stacked over CO. As a vort lobe pivots out of the base of the upper low Thu night, a modified Pacific front will be directed across the South Plains, before stalling in response to another vort lobe approaching from NM.
Warm front will be roughly along Highway 400 in the morning.
A strong, negatively-tilted upper-level trough will continue to mature and lift northeast into southern Iowa through the remainder of the afternoon. Convection has developed over north central to northeastern Kansas underneath the upper low, with new convection initiating just ahead of the circulation, where rapid clearing through the late morning has destabilized the environment underneath a highly sheared environment. Given the highly sheared environment, deep convection may be difficult to establish, thus at least partially mitigating the hail threat, though large hail remains possible within any rotating thunderstorms. Southwest flow will resume overnight until a warm front lifts north across central Missouri Thursday morning.
850mb winds were howling around 45 to 55 kts across the western CWA in advance of the low pressure still out in the high plains. The low, both surface and aloft will lift to the northeast today and will be the source for additional strong to severe storms over Iowa and northern Missouri. Very strong shear is expected with modest CAPE, but best synoptic scale lift will be in the vicinity of the low pressure well to the north.
/Issued 412 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017/ Exiting upper low will keep light rain possible for the northern Panhandles through the overnight hours, but should dissipate around the morning commute. Low level moisture is forecast to surge northward in response to the approach of this low. A sharp dryline in the vicinity of the eastern Panhandles (mainly off-Caprock counties) as the upper low takes on a negative tilt around midday.
Southerly flow will prevail through the period but low level flow above the surface will become more favorable to transport deeper moisture northward during the overnight hours ahead of an upper trough. /ISSUED 400 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017/ An upper level low can be seen on water vapor satellite imagery over far southeastern Colorado/far southwestern Kansas. This system is moving northeast while the next upper level low over eastern Oregon is digging southeastward. The first upper level low will continue to move northeast across Kansas and into Iowa by tonight. Subsidence in the wake of the upper level low should result in rather quiet weather this afternoon and tonight.
Wrap around moisture in the NW quadrant of a mid/upper level low over southern Idaho will deliver cloudy skies with rain and snow showers over the eastern Oregon mountains through this afternoon. Skies will be mostly sunny today in the Lower Columbia Basin of Washington, the Kittitas and Yakima Valleys and north central Oregon. Bkn-ovc ceilings at 4-6 thousand feet AGL are expected at KALW and KPDT through the period as a low pressure system to the east wraps moisture back to the west.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night): High pressure at the surface and at the 500 mb level will continue to be the dominant weather features over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the short term forecast period.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a trough rotating through the southern plains with southwesterly flow over TX. At the surface, a boundary depicted as a cold front was stretched from Forth Worth to Brackettville. During this period an upper level low will move out of the central Rockies keeping southwesterly flow over TX.
1235 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017 Morning upper air and moisture channel imagery shows closed low/short wave over KS rotating to the northeast. After sunset this evening the best chances of showers/thunderstorms will shift into eastern/se IL, and linger over southeast IL on Thu where SPC day2 has marginal risk of severe storms as cold front pushes south into IL river valley late THu afternoon. Highs Thu in the low to mid 80s, except upper 70s by Galesburg.
246 PM EDT Wed May 17 2017 A ridge of high pressure is bringing hot weather to the area this afternoon. This ridge will push offshore as a cold front approaches the region.
In addition, an eastern branch of the low level jet might be just strong enough to set off a few thunderstorms overnight across the far southeastern corner of the CWA.
Today Through Thursday Night The features today will include a strong storm system in the Plains, and a ridge of high pressure over the southeast United States.
/issued 419 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017/ A quiet Wednesday is expected behind a Pacific cold front with breezy westerly downslope flow and plenty of sunshine anticipated.
As the first upper low kicks out across the Upper Midwest tonight, the next deeper upper low over the Intermountain West will move toward the Four Corners region Thursday and Thursday night. But the GFS shows a mid level thermal trough at 70H moving into the Brush Country Thursday afternoon. Models indicate a weak short wave trough moving out of northeast Mexico during the afternoon. Winds will increase over the coastal plains Thursday as low pressure area deepens over the southern plains.
/issued 420 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017/ (Today and Tonight) As a cold front continues to move east across Texas today, skies will clear across West Central Texas. With some drier and cooler air moving into West Central Texas from the west, under sunny to mostly sunny skies, afternoon highs will be cooler than previous days, mainly in the upper 80s.
A Pacific cold front extends south of the low across western OK. The active pattern will continue into late week as a secondary upper wave swings around the primary central Rockies cyclone.
335 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017 A potent upper level low pressure system continues to lift northeast towards the Upper Mississippi River Valley this afternoon. The upper level ridge of the southeastern U. states will attempt to rebuild northwestward on Thursday behind the departing upper low.
For the mountains increasing moisture ahead of an upper low pressure system will bring snow across the higher elevations through the evening. A cold front will drop down with a secondary push of cooler air by this evening bringing rain to the plains. As winds increase with the circulation of the low pressure system snow intensity could increase to 2" per hour at times over mountain passes by Thursday afternoon.
As the main low pressure area continues to shift to the southeast and away from the northern Rockies, the precipitation will decrease overnight. Due to all the clouds and moderating influence, NO HARD FREEZE is expected tonight for the lower valleys of western Montana (Missoula, Bitterroot, Mission, Flathead, Libby, Eureka) and north central Idaho (Orofino, Grangeville).
330 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017 The first of two upper level lows is currently tracking northeast across the region. Rain is covering much of the Sandhills and north central NEB this afternoon in deformation area on immediate west side of the upper low which is centered in eastern Nebraska. As the low tracks northeast away from the area this evening, drier air in the mid levels will end the precipitation early. Otherwise, the next upper low will be centered across northern Utah by early Thursday morning and will move slowly to near the the CO/UT border by late afternoon. This will keep the surface flow from the northeast, which will advect cooler air in from the northern plains.
253 PM MDT Wed May 17 2017 A strong upper level low pressure system will move southward from southern Idaho into northern Utah tonight.
More Heavy Rain on the Way and a Flash Flood Watch is in Effect Aloft: A longwave trof was over the Wrn USA. Substantial heating could occur there even though the warm front remain to the S.
Shear profiles will be enhanced ahead of the low, with adequate diurnal destabilization anticipated to promote thunderstorm redevelopment this afternoon/evening. Given the low level shear profiles, in addition to large hail and damaging winds, tornadoes will again be a threat, generally for points south and east of a Fairmont to Red Wing to Ladysmith line. Precipitation gradually comes to an end on Thursday as the aforementioned wave weakens and lifts to Ontario, and we are influenced by weak ridging ahead of the strong mid/upper low over the Four Corners Region.
341 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017 Upper level low is situated over the Great Basin this afternoon with a nearly zonal pattern flow regime across West Texas. The low is expected to slowly move southeast tomorrow settling over the San Juan Mountains of Colorado by evening time as flow backs southwesterly here in our part of the state.
244 PM EDT Wed May 17 2017 High pressure will remain across the western Atlantic through the end of the week.
336 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017 Potent upper low creating severe weather across the central plains will continue to lift to the northeast across Iowa and into Wisconsin. Colder and drier airmass from Canadian high pressure continues work into the northern plains.
230 PM EDT Wed May 17 2017 High pressure will remain across the western Atlantic through the end of the week.
634 PM EDT Wed May 17 2017 High pressure will maintain dry weather and above normal temperatures through the remainder of the work week. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase by late in the weekend as moisture increases ahead of an approaching cold front. An upper level ridge will remain over the area tonight. Upper level ridging will continue to extend across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the western Atlantic, as Bermuda high pressure remains firmly in place at the surface.
Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicates an upper level ridge along the Eastern Seaboard with a closed low moving to the northeast across the Central Plains. The upper level trough will pass well to the north across the Great Lakes on Thursday. Increased PoPs slightly from the previous forecast with best chances across the higher elevations. Temperatures on Thursday will be a couple of degrees cooler than today with increased cloud cover forecast.
244 PM EDT Wed May 17 2017 High pressure will maintain dry weather and above normal temperatures through the remainder of the work week. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase by late in the weekend as moisture increases ahead of an approaching cold front. The upper level ridge continues to hold on along the Southeast coast. Upper level ridge will remain nearly stationary overnight. Upper level ridging will continue to extend across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the western Atlantic, as Bermuda high pressure remains firmly in place at the surface.
134 PM EDT Wed May 17 2017 VFR conditions currently across the terminals with an upper level ridge in control.
For tonight, tranquil weather is expected as a cold front continues to sink southward across the greater region. We will see cooler lows as a drier airmass advects in the wake of the front. The cold front mentioned in the short term period will return northward as a warm front. How far this warm front makes it north is the main question. Have much higher confidence of more significant severe weather across the southeastern near the dryline to the SSW and the bisecting warm front. Putting this all together, the SE zones will have the highest chance of severe if the warm sector placement from the ARW and EC is correct.
High pressure will remain East Northeast of the region this period.
650 PM EDT Wed May 17 2017 High pressure will remain across the western Atlantic through the end of the week.
307 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017 Mositure chnnal satellite loop shows the upper low rotating northeast across KS into the northwest tip of MO by this afternoon. Instability beneath upper low with surface convergence is strongest over northern MO rotating into IA. With the movement of the upper closed low to the northeast, dragging the surface front to approach IL overnight, will be continued chance of mainly elevated convection. As for Thursday, the upper low moves off to north and all but the south parts of warning area is dry.
Isolated to scattered light showers continue to develop in advance of a weak prefrontal trough from Gonzales to Laredo. Winds and seas are expected to subside this afternoon as the gradient weakens with a weak trough of low pressure moving into the Coastal Bend.
336 PM EDT Wed May 17 2017 Low pressure over eastern Nebraska will move northeast through the central Great Lakes on Thursday. A trailing cold front will drop southeast across the region Thursday evening.
118 PM EDT Wed May 17 2017 Strong upper level ridge will produce near record high temperatures today. A cold front will drop across the area late Thursday kicking off scattered thunderstorms and ushering in more seasonal conditions.
An upper level ridge of high pressure remains over the Mid South this morning. /issued 239 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017/ Warmer night across the Midsouth. with current temperatures running in the low to mid 70s under mostly clear skies.
With the ridge over the Wrn Atlc becoming oriented more seaward during Thu, winds will be a category lower than today with around 10 to 15 mph expected most areas with a little higher south near Lake Okeechobee by early afternoon.
A ridge of high pressure over the offshore waters will gradually build into the Pacific Northwest over the next several days.
1138 AM MDT Wed May 17 2017 The low pressure system over southwest Kansas will lift northeastward along a stationary front into eastern Nebraska by late this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will lift out of the forecast area by this afternoon as the low lifts into Nebraska. Additional showers are expected to move into the western sections of the forecast area overnight ahead of the next low pressure system due to move east of the Rockies by late in the week.
Our basic tools were not putting much if any snowfall in Nye or Red Lodge, but cross sections show freezing levels dropping to around 5000 ft in this area later tonight give or take.
1038 AM PDT Wed May 17 2017 Remnant moisture and instability from a low pressure tracking through southern Idaho will lead to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms today.
259 PM EDT Wed May 17 2017 An upper level low centered over Cuba remains nestled beneath the apex of a mean layered ridge centered east of the Carolina coasts. This has allowed the Lower keys to experience several rounds of quick bouts of moderate to heavy rainfall.
An approaching cold front will bring a chance of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon through evening, some possibly severe.
Currently the freezing level is running between 9,000 and 10,000 feet, however snow levels will drop to between 5500 and 6500 feet overnight tonight. This will translate to near freezing to slightly below freezing temperatures for many valley locations tonight into Thursday morning.
Continue to watch progression of low pressure across the plains as rainfall continues moving northward. This high pressure continues to sink south Thursday, and despite the associated partial clearing, cold advection means that temperatures will again struggle to reach low 60s Thursday. Guidance lows for some locations are in the 30s, so will continue to watch for the potential for frost though timing means everything as we will also see a low lifting from the south, with isentropic upglide resulting in increased mid/high cloud cover hopefully saving us from dropping too close to the freezing mark.
A more robust warming trend will take place through late week and into the upcoming weekend as high pressure builds along the coast. For the rest of today, clouds will gradually decrease with warmer conditions.
Not much has changed with the setup, with plenty of moisture, instability, and wind flow with strong low pressure approaching from the southwest. Storms are expected to wind down by midnight, with a few showers lingering overnight in the northwest toward the low. A round of light showers is possible tomorrow, from mid morning into the afternoon as a cold front drops through the area.
We'll have another warm day today with quick low level flow between low pressure in the mid-Missouri Valley and high pressure off the Carolina coast. Tonight a cold front will begin to approach from the west as low level jetting increases above the Ohio Valley.
An unseasonably strong negatively tilted upper low lifting northeast from the Central Plains will provide considerable upper support for severe storms this afternoon and evening, while a slow moving cold front, outflow boundaries and perhaps lake and bay breezes provide for surface convective initiation. Further south and east there will probably be just isolated or scattered storms until late afternoon or evening as the upper system gets closer and the surface cold front starts to move east. The storms will move across the area tonight and exit early Thursday as the cold front moves through.
Temperatures from Tampa to Fort Myers are already 4-6 degrees warmer this morning than 24 hours ago. High pressure continues to dominate the weather and will keep an easterly component wind across the area and mostly dry conditions, except for a stray shower over southwest Florida this afternoon. 23 inches, mostly in the lower levels below 6000 feet.
Temperature and dewpoints are close early this morning across western Nebraska and also across far eastern Wyoming and if we see some clearing of the high clouds, will likely see areas of fog developing through the early morning hours. Rain chances will increase through the daylight hours as diffluence aloft increases ahead of the approaching upper low over southern Idaho. Cooler today with more cloud cover versus yesterday. The upper low remains nearly stationary over northern Utah with a mid level low forming over northern Colorado producing deep moist upslope over our counties, and especially over southeast Wyoming. Models indicate widespread rain developing in this warm advection pattern aloft, quite impressive looking at the low and mid level theta-e advection. The upper low slowly pivots across western Colorado with deep and moist upslope continuing across our counties.
Dry weather and a day to day warming trend can be expected across the central California interior through the weekend as a ridge of High pressure builds along the West coast.
This trough has initiated some weak lift to induce isolated showers across parts of northeast Texas, and this trend may continue through the heat of the afternoon with slightly more instability. /issued 1059 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017/ Upper low in the Central Plains to continue to lift newd, allowing for the associated weak boundary to slow/stall across our region today.
324 PM EDT Wed May 17 2017 A ridge of high pressure is bringing hot weather to the area this afternoon. This ridge will push offshore as a cold front approaches the region.
Toward daybreak, the warmer Gulf waters should support onshore moving low-topped showers reaching Brownsville and perhaps Harlingen around or soon after daybreak and for now elected to roll a PROB30 with MVFR ceiling/visibility in any activity then.