Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
351 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016 An upper level trough is over the Great Lakes region and an upper low is over Arizona. Showers and thunderstorms are possible today across the higher terrain and areas along and west of the Upper Trans Pecos.
310 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016 Despite cool Canadian high pressure overhead this morning, high clouds have slid in from the west overnight thanks to pesky northwest flow aloft and clouds rounding the ridge over the western states. The ridge will remain across most of the forecast area. As we move into the weekend it looks like the building 500MB ridge and continued southerly flow at the surface with the next trough still to our west.
335 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016 For the Today through Saturday night period, predawn water vapor imagery and model analysis showed the ArkLaMiss under an upper trough with northwest flow across the CWA. This feature was around a subtropical ridge 592 dkm high centered over northwest Mexico. The upper trough axis will push off to the east as the flat ridge exerts its influence from the Southern Plains. It will once again be less humid today with dewpoints in the 60s, while on Saturday dewpoints will creep into the lower 70s in some areas. Lows for tonight will be from the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Lows for Saturday night will be in the lower to middle 70s.
523 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016 The short term concerns are cloud extent today and cooler temperatures into tonight. Cool pocket of air at h85 of +6 to +8C should yield max temperatures in the lower 70s in western Wisconsin. Sunshine should be prevalent most areas with light winds as the high pressure ridge slides southeast.
157 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 A cold front will push southeast across central Pa this afternoon and early evening. A large area of high pressure will build over the Northeast states and Lower Great Lakes region for the long holiday weekend and bring mostly sunny and dry weather. A warm front may drift north toward the Mason.
Later tonight high pressure pushes in and quieter weather settles in.
206 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely Friday into Friday evening as a cold front moves through the northeast.
They are associated with a weak cold front drifting south through the state. High temps will be very cool for this time of year with highs expected in the low 70s.
Otherwise, have trended twd the cooler guidance for temps tonight. This area continues to be on the srn edge of the higher amounts.
631 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 An upper trough will push a cold front through the region today and tomorrow. At 0330 UTC: An upper trough extended from Hudson Bay to the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, a surface front now over the Carolinas and Georgia will weaken and shift slowly east today, while a better defined cold front reached the mountains from the northwest. As of 245am EDT Friday: Generally zonal upper flow pattern Saturday morning gradually transitions to southwesterly flow as next continental trough approaches the area.
328 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 An upper trough will push a cold front through the region today and tomorrow. At 0330 UTC: An upper trough extended from Hudson Bay to the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, a surface front now over the Carolinas and Georgia will weakend and shift slowly east today, while a better defeind cold front reached the mountains from the northwest. As of 245am EDT Friday: Generally zonal upper flow pattern Saturday morning gradually transitions to southwesterly flow as next continental trough approaches the area.
319 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 A cold front will approach from the west today and will cross the region overnight.
Surface wise, a Western Atlantic ridge is oriented across South Florida and into the Northeast Gulf of Mexico.
Have kept temps in the low to mid 70s with eastern sections being warmer with better chances of some sun/less clouds than areas in the west.
226 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016 The short term concerns are cloud extent today and cooler temperatures into tonight. Cool pocket of air at h85 of +6 to +8C should yield max temperatures in the lower 70s in western Wisconsin. Sunshine should be prevalent most areas with light winds as the high pressure ridge slides southeast.
327 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 A weak cold front will dive southeast across our area today and tonight. We begin the period in more of a zonal flow across the region as trough advances more and more to the east.
116 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 A weak cold front will increase shower and storm chances today. High pressure will bring dry and mild weather through the holiday weekend.
High pressure located over the Ohio River Valley brought about mostly clear skies and light winds for most of the region, creating an overall pleasant afternoon. As high pressure begins to shift out of the region through the day on Friday, chances of precipitation begin to enter the forecast in association with both diurnal heating as well as an expected cold frontal passage through the region late Friday night into Saturday. As a result, the best chance of any storms will occur through eastern Kentucky during peak heating ahead of the cold front with a lesser chance into the evening associated with FROPA. We will be looking at a decent shot for ridge to valley temperature splits each night, particularly in the far east. Did adjust the lows tonight and Friday night for some terrain differences.
Expect cooler and drier air to move into the area behind this cold front. As the trough works through the 4-corners region it will help lift that boundary north. As the trough slowly meanders out of the mountainous southwest and into the high/central plains it will generally trek along the boundary, which will cause widespread moderate to heavy rain.
Weak low pressure systems will keep the weather pattern over the area somewhat unsettled through the Fourth of July weekend. An upper level trof and associated cold front will bring a threat of light rain to mainly the northern and western parts of the forecast area today. Although the low pressure system has tapped into this moisture, the forcing is too weak to efficiently squeeze out the available moisture.
They were quite a bit warmer than guidance last night, but are 3-5 degrees cooler than last night at this time. Dew point temperatures are as much as 10-15 degrees cooler, which would allow for much lower temperatures than last night. Current forecast was around 5-7 degrees cooler than last night and have lowered it further in a number of places but it may not be enough.
320 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 Low pressure over Lake Huron will continue to move east today dragging a cold front across the local area.
324 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016 Quite a range of temperatures across the US this morning with the upper plain states reporting upper 40s to mid 50s as a cold front pushes into Missouri this morning. Rain chances are also falling as the ridge aloft builds back in from the west.
Shallow ridging remains in place over the region. Limited convection is possible in the west due to ridging. as well as continue to break down ridge and push ridge axis eastward.
404 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016 The cold front responsible for the overnight convection is currently exiting the sthrn and ern FA and should be completely out of the CWA by 12Z.
Weak subsidence inversions and dry air at midlevels under this high pressure will limit convection over most of the region today and tomorrow, but a weak sea breeze may help a few showers and thunderstorms sneak into our far southeastern counties in the Coastal Plains.
KDHN and KABY because of drying aloft spreading over a moist boundary layer, and KTLH because of persistent isentropic lift in the lower levels. The axis of a long wave trough over the eastern CONUS will slide slowly east and deamplify setting up nearly zonal flow across the local region by Saturday. A surface front/trough will remain stalled north of our CWA so moist southerly flow will continue in the boundary layer.
Main surge of cold air just now beginning to push across southern Wisconsin behind secondary cold front. Cold front marked by gustier north winds and at 08Z roughly ran from around KSBM west-northwest to around KISW. Expect a cooler day today with highs in the upper 60s to middle 70s as 925H temperatures recover a bit this afternoon to around 14-15C. Short wave ridging settles over the area for tonight resulting in light boundary layer winds. High High pressure will slowly slide through the region this weekend.
259 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016 After a couple of really nice days with slightly cooler than normal temps and low humidity levels, muggy conditions are already creeping back into the area. Dew points are climbing into the 60s early this morning, and temps are running several degrees warmer than this time yesterday.
1257 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016 A cold front was moving through northwest wisconsin this afternoon and will exit by early this evening. Behind the front, additional showers and storms were found over northeast Minnesota that were driven by positive vorticity advection associated with an upper level long wave trof moving overhead. Behind this trof, a clearing trend was noted on visible satellite imagery. Cool conditions will be over the region tonight as the high pressure drifts into the Red River Valley of the North. Meanwhile high pressure is overhead. The cool northwest flow aloft will keep max temps in the lower 70s, with upper 60s right next to Lake Superior.
Driest conditions will be Saturday with a weak high pressure ridge moving through.
A cold front will approach the area later today. High pressure builds in from the northwest and pushes all remaining precipitation out of the area for Saturday.
310 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016 No major changes to the forecast in the foreseeable future as North Texas weather will continue to be dominated by strong upper ridging for the next several days. The center of the upper high will oscillate between the southern Plains and the 4-corners region over the next 10 days and these slight variations will only impact temperatures by a few degrees here and there. the ridging will be centered just to our west leaving North Texas with weak winds and warm temperatures. This will keep the upper ridge from amplifying but it will also help strengthen southerly flow into North Texas.
400 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2016 High pressure over Bermuda will continue to bring warm and moist air to the region today ahead of an upper level trough shifting east from the Midwest. A cold front will push southeast through the area this evening, with high pressure then building from the west through Saturday night.
306 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016 Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms continue along and east of a cold front, which at 2 am was located roughly along the I-55 corridor. The latest surface observations showing some patchy fog and low clouds immediately behind the cold front, but forecast soundings indicate the depth of the moisture to be quite shallow, so what fog and stratus that does develop won't be around for very long this morning as high pressure to our northwest shifts southeast into the Midwest. The NAM is most aggressive in overspreading the rain over the CWA Saturday evening, but the slower GFS/ECMWF solution is preferred with the highest rain chances not arriving until late evening over the northeast CWA.
145 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 A pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. A weak pressure trough will linger in the forecast area. Overnight lows will generally be in the lower 70s. The models display lee-side troughing in the forecast area with surface ridging to the south. Expect thunderstorms mainly associated with heating and convergence into the trough or into a possible seabreeze front that may move well inland. The GFS and ECMWF display surface ridging extending from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through the medium-range period. The models keep a frontal zone mainly just north of the forecast area with lee-side troughing in the area.
Best chances of convection will be at KCNM, closer to the higher terrain. /issued 203 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/ Upper level high pressure centered across eastern New Mexico will bring a mild and quiet night across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. This upper level high is expected to rapidly push east into east Texas Friday and into the Gulf Coast states Saturday.
On Sat an upr trof wl be moving slowly eastward acrs the state, helping to kick off showers and tstms acrs much of the forecast area. The upr trof wl move out of the area Sat night, with drier air moving in. An upr ridge wl be building ovr the area on Sun, and with a decrease in PW values, shower/tstms should not be as widespread on Sun. Temps on Sun should also be a little warmer. Then, the low clouds are expected to decrease by this afternoon with primarily VFR conditions anticipated from this afternoon into this evening in combination with scattered showers and storms developing across the area.
417 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 A weak cold front will increase shower and storm chances today. High pressure will bring dry and mild weather through the holiday weekend.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): Mid level ridging (591 dam) will persist over the Gulf and Texas, supporting high pressure (1014 mb) at the surface. Afternoon heat index values, roughly from the Lower Valley inland along the Rio Grande will register in the 105 to 110 degree range for a few hours each afternoon, and from 100 to 105 degrees at most northern and western areas, raising the threat of heat advisory conditions.
154 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 A weak cold front will increase shower and storm chances today. High pressure will bring dry and mild weather through the holiday weekend.
1006 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Low pressure will push east across the area this afternoon allowing the chance of showers to persist.
Today will be dry with seasonable temperatures as an upper ridge moves overhead.
1046 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Wet weather will continue through the evening as low pressure passes.
724 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Water vapor imagery this morning shows two longwave troughs, one digging south across the Four Corners and the other lifting east- northeast across the Ohio River Valley, with weak ridging in place across the southern and central Plains. Given the onshore flow near Lake Superior, expect temperatures to remain in the low to mid 40s along and just inland of the shore. Models suggest that a mild split flow pattern will become more amplified as a ridge builds from the sw CONUS through Alberta/Saskatchewan with downstream troughing from the Great Lakes into the se CONUS.
708 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Low pressure will track across northern Ohio today and off the Mid Atlantic Coast by Saturday morning.
SHRA chances on the low side this afternoon with slightly higher coverage psbl in KMLB-KSUA corridor btwn 17z-21z.
Otherwise, expecting the low level cyclonic flow with moisture trapped under the inversion to slowly diminish through the day as the area of low pressure over Indiana continues to move away from the region.
An upper low will slowly drift east along the Utah Arizona border today.
1053 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 A mid latitude low is moving eastwards across the eastern United States and a ridge axis on its southeastern periphery extends across the Keys region. A line of showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, formed with a moist confluent zone associated with the low far to the north, is moving east and not making appreciable progress towards the Keys. Short term update - The pressure gradient across the area will continue to flatten through the next 24 hours as previously mentioned low moves towards the Atlantic seaboard and the deep layered also ridge shifts eastward. Winds will continue to relax across Florida Keys waters this afternoon and tonight as a ridge axis near the island chain retreats eastwards.
625 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Early morning water vapor imagery revealed a deep-layer cyclone over the mid MS Valley with another closed mid-level system near Las Vegas. Persistent low-level warm advection and isentropic upglide downstream from the mid-level trough will foster the development of a precipitation shield which will migrate from the central High Plains into the mid and lower MO Valleys.
/issued 319 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017/ Upper-level ridge to build across the region today allowing for mostly clear skies areawide. Temperatures forecast to climb into the low to mid 80s across the ArkLaTex with light south to southeast winds prevailing.
The upper level low has moved over the Las Vegas this morning however, the northern flank of the low continues to bring rain and snow showers from the east across south-central Idaho. Snow accumulations of a few inches will be possible above 5000 feet but generally little to no accumulations is expected in the lower valleys as road and ground temperatures remain above freezing. The upper level ridge axis will move over the region tonight ending the precipitation and windy conditions. Temperatures warm to near normal today reaching the low 60s on Saturday.
810 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 An approaching cold front will pass through the area by late morning into early afternoon. High pressure will prevail over the area through the weekend.
Elsewhere, however, temps should climb into the upper 60s along I40 and into the low 80s near the Red River. By early afternoon Saturday, height falls accompanying the low should begin west of I35. It's difficult to determine how far south the cold front will make it Saturday, especially with the mid to upper low still well to our west.
840 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Showers are expected through tonight with crossing low pressure.
As for the rest of today we will see intervals of clouds and sun with a continued chance of some additional showers or an isolated storm through mid afternoon as a cold front now over the Panhandle moves southeast into the forecast area, with decreasing rain chances expected thereafter as drier air advects into the region. Ongoing conditions should continue through mid afternoon as the cold front approaches, then expect wind/seas to diminish and subside as the gradient relaxes.
958 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 A prefrontal trough will move Southeast across the region late this morning into early afternoon.
A cold front now crossing into NW GA will continue to track eastward. Otherwise, a very nice Friday in store with temperatures rebounding into the mid 60s across the higher terrain to around 80 across central GA. /issued 345 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017/ The latest regional surface analysis shows low pressure continuing to lift into the Ohio Valley with a trailing cold front through central TN and Alabama. Pre-frontal trough over the GA portion continues to be the focus for localized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Visible satellite imagery this morning shows extensive low cloud cover wrapping around an upper low over Indiana has spread over Middle Tennessee. Building ridging influences sfc/aloft should result in degradation of ceilings west to east by the 01/05Z-01/08Z time frame with some possible MVFR fog formation CSV 01/08Z-01/12Z.
1247 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Wet weather will continue through the evening as low pressure passes.
1051 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017 15z/10am surface analysis shows 1002mb low over western Ohio with a trailing trough axis extending westward into central Illinois. 5490 m upper low currently centered over southern IL continues to produce scattered showers across central IL due to a component of deformation N-NW of the low. High pressure will slowly move into the upper Midwest through Saturday morning.
Thinning clouds and generally warmer air mass will allow for warmer temperatures today, with highs in the 50s expected for most areas.
A low pressure system moving into the Four Corners region will bring gusty winds and much cooler temperatures today.
Will go dry this afternoon, with dry weather the rule tonight through Saturday night, as high pressure moves across the area.
636 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017 H5 analysis from earlier tonight, had a closed low over central Nevada with a 140+ KT jet streak extending from Washington state south to southern California. Downstream of the low, ridging extended from the high plains of west Texas north into the Dakotas. East of the ridge, a closed low was located over southern Missouri with a downstream ridge extending from the Delmarva north into the eastern Great Lakes. For tonight: The upper level low will drift to the east southeast, crossing northern Arizona into northern New Mexico. The upper level low that will produce our rain chances on Saturday will move across the four corners region and push south southeast across the TX Panhandle.
While the fire weather scenario is outlined in the FWF this morning, the highlights are Min RH values dropping very near or even below 20 percent in the westernmost areas of the CWA in addition to the Rio Grande Plains between 21-23Z this afternoon. Overnight Friday and into Saturday morning, an 850 mb LLJ of 45-55 kts out of the south will set up and increase cloud cover and begin advecting low level moisture into the CWA ahead of the next upper low progged to begin impacting the region.
A convective line of showers and isolated storms is moving across NE AL/S middle TN with the cold front immediately behind this activity. Another effect of the trough passing to the north will be increased mixing within the boundary layer as wind speeds remain between 40-50 kts at 850 mb. Though cloud cover may stay broken in S Middle TN and portions of N AL (scattered clouds elsewhere), air temperatures should still be able to warm into the low 70s this afternoon. The ridge building over the region will keep dry, sunny, and seasonably warm temperatures for Saturday with daytime highs in the low 70s.
530 AM MDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Water vapor shows upper low over the desert southwest with abundant tropospheric moisture extending nwd through WY and into far swrn SD. At the lower levels, broad e-se boundary layer flow covers the cwfa. Upper level low drifts slowly ewd over the next couple of days. Pcpn chances then shift south and east of the cwfa on Saturday with temps about 5-10 degrees warmer.
Cold front extends westward through central MO. Upper low is over southern IL with the trough axis extending southward through middle TN. Clouds will decrease on Saturday as multiple levels of high pressure build in.
906 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Adjusted coverage of drizzle further south into West Kentucky, mainly the Pennyrile region as late as 17z (noon), as the attendant thermal lift and vorticity advection with the closed low (centered just east of Southwest Indiana at 7 am CDT) advects southeast through Kentucky this morning. Will go dry this afternoon, with dry weather the rule tonight through Saturday night, as high pressure moves across the area.
Highs on Sat will be a bit warmer as upper level ridging increases over the state.
/issued 345 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017/ The latest regional surface analysis shows low pressure continuing to lift into the Ohio Valley with a trailing cold front through central TN and Alabama. Pre-frontal trough over the GA portion continues to be the focus for localized shower and thunderstorm activity.
722 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Brief MVFR vsbys will be possible through 18Z as shra/tsra associated with a cold front affect the region and have handled with VCTS. Fast progressive upper pattern continues with upper low over the Ohio River Valley this morning moving eastward up the Mid Atlantic region tonight. Abundant and complex upper energy field wrapping around the E-S quadrants of the upper system pushing cold front through the Deep South today. Tonight into Saturday, dry NW flow aloft as upper ridging begins to build into the region while the frontal boundary stalls over S FL, patchy overnight fog possible areawide.
637 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017 5490 m upper low currently centered over southern IL continues to produce scattered showers across central IL due to a component of deformation N-NW of the low. High pressure will slowly move into the upper Midwest through Saturday morning.