Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This system will push a weak cold front (currently near OKC-SGF-COU line) into the Mid- South later today. The second system is the low-amplitude wave moving through the Desert Southwest and extreme northwest Mexico. The cold front is forecast to settle over the CWA by early afternoon, stalling somewhere along the I-40 corridor, before pushing south through the area overnight. Dry weather is anticipated today with temperatures warming into the lower 80s south of the cold front. We will see increasing cloud cover this afternoon and evening as the southwest trough approaches, supplying mid and upper-level moisture in addition to broad forcing for ascent. This will lead to some light rain showers after midnight north of I-40, with precipitation chances gradually shifting south and washing out later Tuesday morning as the cold front accelerates.
1130 AM EDT Mon Apr 12 2021 Fair and dry weather expected early this week with above normal temperatures with high pressure and northwesterly flow over the region. Chances of rain increase Wed/Thu as an upper trough dives southeast from the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic region and pushes a cold front through our area. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected late in the week into the weekend. Highs this afternoon under sunny skies and some downsloping flow will actually be warmer than yesterday, with highs in the 80s. Overnight lows tonight falling into the lower to middle 50s.
Medium range progs point to an anti-cyclonic wave break over western North America being the catalyst for a regime change - favoring greater deep troughing over the eastern half of the continent starting late in the weekend.
Elevated PGFs between said high and the departing northeast CONUS low pressure system continue to favor gusty wly/nwly winds across the region, generally in the 20-25mph range. By Tuesday night the the low to our north will be slowly moving it's way through the Great Lakes Region and a broad ridge will be set up across the southern half of the U.
Expect longwave ridging that extends from Coastal Texas northeast into Indiana to continue building over the area this afternoon and evening. Strong high pressure over Western and Central Canada will expand, pushing a weak front from the Mid South into the Ohio River Valley region southward into our northern counties during the day on Tuesday. Expect an increase in clouds north and west, but the lower levels appear to be too dry to support much in the way of shower activity. For today, expect sunny skies with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Lingering showers remain across the distant Florida Straits south of the Lower and Middle Keys. Otherwise, weather should be drying out through the rest of the week as high pressure settles in across the region.
234 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021 This evening into overnight, a southern stream low-amplitude upper- level trough is expected to traverse the mid-Mississippi River Valley, within broad upper-level cyclonic flow to the south of an upper-level closed low meandering across the Northern Plains.
353 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021 Mild but overall pleasant conditions across the region today with temperatures generally in the low to mid 80s and dew points ranging from the low 50s to low 60s. Additionally, given the high PWATS, any stronger convection or training cells will have the potential to result in locally heavy rainfall or flooding.
211 PM MDT Mon Apr 12 2021 It will remain cooler than normal through at least mid week, with low temperatures in the teens and 20s, and high temperatures in the 30s and 40s.
Temperatures managed to bounce back and reach into the lower to mid 80s. Dew points remain in the lower 70s, keeping conditions muggy.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): High pressure moving eastward across the northern Gulf and southeastern United States will maintain southeast flow across the CWA through Tuesday morning.
307 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021 Frontal boundary remains stalled across the higher terrain of northwest Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma this afternoon, with a wide range of temperatures across the boundary. The front will resume a southward motion overnight, putting the entire area in the cooler airmass for the rest of the week.
321 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021 Midafternoon surface analysis showed a surface cold front over southern MO, dividing lower 70s from upper 50s temperatures. This front marked the leading edge of a continental polar high pressure, centered over the northern Canadian provinces at 1043mb. Relative to earlier models runs, the cold front's passage will be delayed to Tuesday, under low amplitude ridging aloft.
Later tonight, into Tuesday along the leading edge of the ridge a few showers will be possible, but the focus for that activity will be predominantly south of the forecast area, toward the Ozarks. Perhaps of some note will be daily lows in the lower to middle 30s with the cool air continuing to move into the area. With some light winds expected for the rest of tonight the frost potential is on the low side, aside from where winds go light and clouds dissipate.
An upper level low pressure system will develop over southeastern Oregon, northern Nevada, and southwestern Idaho over the next 24 hours. This low lingers over this region for several days.
Mid morning surface analysis had 1014mb high centered over the Florida panhandle and a stalled cold front just west of the ArkLaTex. Although a few clouds will move in from the west this afternoon high pressure will dominate from the east today. Dry weather with warmer than normal temperatures is expected and the current forecast handles this well. At the surface, high pressure over the northeast Gulf, will turn our winds to a more southerly direction today, but displacing the dry air in place will take some time. Despite the weak low level moisture return, mid and high level moisture will begin spilling over the ridge this afternoon mainly in the form of cirrus.
1226 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021 A weak and dry cold front extending from near IRK southwest to just west of COU will move southeastward through our forecast area today. Will only see slightly cooler high temperatures today across northeast and central MO. Slightly cooler high temperatures can be expected on Tuesday, a tad below normal.
/issued 249 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): High pressure moving eastward across the northern Gulf and southeastern United States will maintain southeast flow across the CWA through Tuesday morning.
632 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021 Update to Aviation Section for 00Z TAFs Short wave energy will top an inverted surface trof/boundary and touch off some shower activity tonight-early Tuesday.
Our regional zonal westerly flow is slowly buckling as a trough develops over western states. As a low pressure system digs southward into the Great Basin, the resulting height falls and modest cold air advection will push temperatures down several degrees.
Tuesday night a warm front will push in from the south as our first wave arrives. Snow rates will increase after 06Z as the warm front enters Sweetwater County.
411 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021 Upper level ridging and zonal flow will dominate the upper level pattern for the next few days.
The combination of the frontal passage and cloudy skies associated with the upper trough will result in temperatures remaining 10 to 15 degrees cooler than today for Tuesday afternoon high temperatures.
Models keep the low level flow all upslope for the first two periods; northeasterly to the divide this evening/tonight, then more easterly and southeasterly on Tuesday.
Quiet conditions continue overnight as low pressure develops over the Pacific Northwest.
It will remain cooler than normal through at least mid week, with low temperatures in the teens and 20s, and high temperatures in the 30s and 40s.
911 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021 (Issued 911 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021) A closed upper low continues to sit and spin over Lake Superior tonight. Temperatures will be cooler tomorrow with a push of colder air aloft moving in, but highs will still get into the 50s near the lake.
1042 PM EDT Mon Apr 12 2021 Currently - Surface to lower level high pressure centered in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is producing gentle mostly northerly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters this evening. The mid level ridge is aligned over the Gulf of Mexico. While this shift to northerly breezes could be seen as a cold front, the cooling has been slow and shallow. Short Term Update - Ridging will consolidate control over the area through the overnight period as the mid latitude trough that was responsible for earlier weather pushes further out to sea. The increased ridging will keep showers away and out of the forecast. High pressure spreading eastwards across Florida will result in gentle to moderate northerly breezes to shift east northeast by morning.
Some clouds will stream in overnight from the southwest as the upper ridge axis crosses and moisture gets trapped on the south side of the high pressure ridge. Otherwise, the clearing skies and light winds will permit temperatures to radiate into the lower 40s tonight and the cloud cover and rain received today will keep a bit more moisture at the surface overnight.
606 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021 An upper low spiraling over Minnesota through Tuesday will continue to bring occasional shower chances as pieces of energy rotate around it. Overnight, would expect isolated showers at times, especially across our northwest closer to the upper low.
/issued 411 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021/ Upper level ridging and zonal flow will dominate the upper level pattern for the next few days.
/issued 353 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021/ Mild but overall pleasant conditions across the region today with temperatures generally in the low to mid 80s and dew points ranging from the low 50s to low 60s. Additionally, given the high PWATS, any stronger convection or training cells will have the potential to result in locally heavy rainfall or flooding.
A pair of closed lows were present across the CONUS this afternoon with the first over the Upper Midwest and the second progressing towards the Mid-Atlantic states. At the surface, a ridge axis extends from the Northern High Plains into western Kansas. All- in-all, it has been a fairly nice spring day although the northwesterly wind has kept high temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s, about 10-20 degrees cooler than yesterday's highs. The passage of this trough along with 925mb winds of 25-30kts could keep surface winds around 5-10 mph. For Tuesday, a modified cold front pushes south across the CWA with lift in the right entrance region of the upper jet and the passage of another weak mid-level wave leading to additional mid and high clouds through the day.
Temperatures as of early this afternoon are already in the mid to upper 70s and expect most locations will continue to climb into the low 80s. These high heights aloft are leading to these warmer temperatures. With the ridge overhead, do not expect any precipitation will develop along this boundary overnight. Overnight lows will be mild in the low to mid 50s. The upper ridge axis will shift to the east tonight into early Tuesday. An upper level closed low will be located over the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. A cold front associated with this closed low will push southeastward across the southern and central Plains.
705 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021 This evening into overnight, a southern stream low-amplitude upper- level trough is expected to traverse the mid-Mississippi River Valley, within broad upper-level cyclonic flow to the south of an upper-level closed low meandering across the Northern Plains.
649 PM EDT Mon Apr 12 2021 A showery and seasonably cooler early-spring weather pattern will plague central Pennsylvania this week.
May even flirt with a few areas near 90 before the cold front enters the picture. Still not including any PoPs for Tuesday daytime as the overall airmass will still be relatively dry, thus the warmer temperatures.
You can clearly see the next upper level Pacific trough, which will likely impact our weather for the entire week in some form, digging south across the PAC NW. The trough will continue to dig south until it gets to the northern Great Basin Region where it is forecast to stall and form a closed low tonight and into Tuesday due to the Omega Block.
/Issued 307 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021/ Frontal boundary remains stalled across the higher terrain of northwest Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma this afternoon, with a wide range of temperatures across the boundary. The front will resume a southward motion overnight, putting the entire area in the cooler airmass for the rest of the week.
/issued 321 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021/ Midafternoon surface analysis showed a surface cold front over southern MO, dividing lower 70s from upper 50s temperatures. This front marked the leading edge of a continental polar high pressure, centered over the northern Canadian provinces at 1043mb. Relative to earlier models runs, the cold front's passage will be delayed to Tuesday, under low amplitude ridging aloft.
803 PM EDT Mon Apr 12 2021 High pressure remains over the area this evening, with quiet conditions expected into the overnight period. High pressure will remain over the region for the next several days, with rain-free conditions and winds remaining below headlines. /issued 153 PM EDT Mon Apr 12 2021/ A closed upper low remains southeast of the Great Lakes region with the associated trough just off the eastern seaboard.
632 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021 The primary forecast foci are another day of elevated fire danger Tuesday, a late week storm system, and periods of sub-freezing temperatures.
729 PM EDT Mon Apr 12 2021 Dry high pressure will prevail into mid week.
High pressure and offshore flow continues to bring clear skies and dry conditions to the region. As the week progresses, an upper level low drops into eastern Oregon weakening the pressure gradient. The most notable change will be temperatures 5 to 10 degrees cooler across the interior areas.
/issued 635 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021/ Midafternoon surface analysis showed a surface cold front over southern MO, dividing lower 70s from upper 50s temperatures. This front marked the leading edge of a continental polar high pressure, centered over the northern Canadian provinces at 1043mb. Relative to earlier models runs, the cold front's passage will be delayed to Tuesday, under low amplitude ridging aloft.
635 PM EDT Mon Apr 12 2021 A showery and seasonably cooler early-spring weather pattern will plague central Pennsylvania this week.
826 PM EDT Mon Apr 12 2021 A showery and seasonably cooler early-spring weather pattern will plague central Pennsylvania this week.
Light showers will also develop in the central and eastern Permian Basin with the arrival of the lower clouds but should only make it as far west as MAF during this TAF period. /issued 226 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021/ Upper low over MN today with near zonal flow across the area.
512 PM MDT Mon Apr 12 2021 A trough covers the northern plains, with the upper low centered over MN. A 90-kt jet is rounding the base of the trough, over southern SD.
627 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021 A low pressure system remains set over the Northern Plains while the cold front that moved through yesterday is stretched across central Texas to western Arkansas.
A cool night is expected with overnight lows in the M-U50s for most but a few normally cooler spots could see L50s. Weak high pressure continues overhead with weak pressure gradient in place.
High pressure is centered across the northern GOMEX. Another cool night tonight as the low- level airmass remains fairly dry and skies remain generally clear.
A strung out upper low/shear axis over the region will gradually shift to the east through mid-week. Some snow accumulation is possible given how cold the temperatures are expected overnight, of course mainly over the higher elevations of the Coteau. For Tuesday night the upper low continues to shear off to the east, with any lingering pcpn gradually ending over the forecast area.
Temperatures currently across northern Alabama and southern Middle Tennessee are hovering around the mid 60s to lower 70s, but will drop down into the low 50s overnight. The upper ridge axis will shift to the east tonight into early Tuesday. An upper level closed low will be located over the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. A cold front associated with this closed low will push southeastward across the southern and central Plains.
Locally, high pressure over the Eastern Gulf has brought back southeasterly winds and rising dewpoints. Satellite and sfc observations shows cirrus overhead, with the lower broken/overcast ceilings beginning to invade SE TX and to overtake the region overnight into Tuesday morning, along with increasing chances of rain around daybreak, and increasing further during the day Tuesday. /issued 353 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021/ Mild but overall pleasant conditions across the region today with temperatures generally in the low to mid 80s and dew points ranging from the low 50s to low 60s. Additionally, given the high PWATS, any stronger convection or training cells will have the potential to result in locally heavy rainfall or flooding.
301 AM EDT Tue Apr 13 2021 After morning fog, dry weather is expected today under weak high pressure.
(This evening through Tuesday) A well developed cumulus field had developed along and south of a cold front at 245 PM CDT. Tuesday will be cooler.
333 AM EDT Tue Apr 13 2021 Cooler weather will start to settle into the region over the next 24 hours and linger till later this week.
As high pressure builds in from the west, the mornings cloud cover/precip will begin to erode, leaving all of central Indiana dry by this afternoon. With zonal flow aloft and NW flow in the low levels, temperatures should be slightly cooler and seasonal for tomorrow.
101 AM EDT Tue Apr 13 2021 Dry high pressure will prevail into mid week.
449 AM EDT Tue Apr 13 2021 An upper low will drop down over PA from the Upper Great Lakes over the next few days.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 55 72 46 66 / 10 10 40 20 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 74 52 70 45 62 / 20 10 40 30 0 Oak Ridge, TN 73 52 69 44 63 / 20 10 50 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 49 68 43 58 / 20 20 50 40 0.
Breezy northeasterly winds this morning associated with a secondary push of colder air in the wake of yesterday's cold front will gradually diminish through the afternoon, with winds shifting around to the east, maintaining cold advection as well as increasing low level moisture.
These cigs look to persist through much of the morning, before gradually lifting/becoming VFR by early afternoon as a weak cold front drifts S through much of E TX into Srn AR near the AR/LA border.
Light east to southeast winds overnight through Tuesday is expected ahead of a cold front which will stall north of the region this evening with little to no shower activity at the regional airports. /issued 249 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): High pressure moving eastward across the northern Gulf and southeastern United States will maintain southeast flow across the CWA through Tuesday morning.
Today and Tonight: A mid/upper-level cyclone over the upper MS Valley early this morning will edge slowly east in response to the amplification of an upstream trough across the interior West. In the low levels, a weakening pressure gradient will be offset by the diurnal steepening of lapse rates to yield breezy conditions across the northern half of our area today, where wind gusts of 30-35 mph are possible. We are aware that some orchards in southeast NE and southwest IA are ahead of schedule with the fruit-tree blossoms now susceptible to freezing temperatures.
5C/km but a downward trend is continuing to be observed in lapse rates as the lower atmosphere continues to cool. With time expect this trough and associated shower/storm activity to slowly progress eastward into our area. Cool weather will then continue through the end of the week as we get locked into a pattern that will continue to reinforce this cool air with NEly winds at the surface and the passage of a few cold fronts.
Ridge is to our south and upper trough to our north.
Then, the upper low and its short waves will make its way into the area this evening and tonight. The track and position of the upper low will be such to favor the highest chances North, and lowest chances South tonight.
This should lead to a mostly cloudy to cloudy night across much of the area as well as warmer. Will be keeping a close eye on the storms near the cold front well northwest of Austin that will be slowing as it sags southward.
1152 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021 Update to Aviation Section for 06Z TAFs Short wave energy will top an inverted surface trof/boundary and touch off some shower activity tonight-early Tuesday.
Highs in the lower to middle 60s are generally expected, though southern sections, where thickening clouds and earlier rain chances may keep temperatures from breaching 60 degrees. Clouds will thicken/lower from southeast-to-northwest tonight, causing temperatures to flatline in the lower and middle 40s.
Temperatures may actually get cold enough tomorrow morning to reach freezing conditions across extreme northern Missouri however, potential cloud cover and winds may preclude temperatures from getting that cold. Have currently sided with a middle of the road solution which yields lows just reaching freezing across extreme northern Missouri.
the south Texas ridge has shifted east of us and now we were in the southwest flow aloft. The western US trough is moving east now and is expected to carve out a deeper trough as short waves dive south on the backside of the trough.
1020 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021 An upper low spiraling over Minnesota through Tuesday will continue to bring occasional shower chances as pieces of energy rotate around it. Overnight, would expect isolated showers at times, especially across our northwest closer to the upper low.
136 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021 130 AM CDT A mainly quiet short term forecast although a transition to cooler weather will unfold.
Cut off upper low continues to rotate over the DLH area, and is not expected to move much today. Could see an additional 2 to 3 inches, mainly near the Canadian border, although of course totals will be impacted by melting and warmer temperatures this afternoon.
1042 PM MDT Mon Apr 12 2021 A trough covers the northern plains, with the upper low centered over MN. A 90-kt jet is rounding the base of the trough, over southern SD.
500 AM EDT Tue Apr 13 2021 After morning fog, dry weather is expected today under weak high pressure.
352 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021 Weak mid-level short wave energy will move across the region this morning with an weak inverted surface trof in place to the south of the forecast area over srn TN.
320 AM EDT Tue Apr 13 2021 Another fair and warm day expected today with weak upper level ridging and northwesterly flow over the region.
1219 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021 This evening into overnight, a southern stream low-amplitude upper- level trough is expected to traverse the mid-Mississippi River Valley, within broad upper-level cyclonic flow to the south of an upper-level closed low meandering across the Northern Plains.
The primary forecast foci are another day of elevated fire danger Tuesday, a late week storm system, and periods of sub-freezing temperatures.
/issued 226 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021/ Upper low over MN today with near zonal flow across the area.
High pressure over the northeastern Gulf and Panhandle of Florida will build over the area this morning. A northeasterly wind surge will push southwestward over the Atlantic waters behind an area of low pressure east of the Mid Atlantic states this morning. A sea breeze/weak frontal boundary from the area of low pressure will then push into the coastal areas this afternoon. Weak high pressure will push east of the area tonight, and settle over the western Atlantic to the Carolinas. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s to the lower 60s.
1142 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021 A low pressure system remains set over the Northern Plains while the cold front that moved through yesterday is stretched across central Texas to western Arkansas.