Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
117 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017 Cold front has moved south into central and northeast Missouri as well as west central Illinois late this morning. Do not expect much more rise in temperatures over northeast Missouri and west central Illinois behind the cold front where there are low clouds. Temperatures over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois will likely still get into the lower 80s. The upper ridge will breakdown somewhat and build south as an upper low moves east near the Great Lakes region. With extensive cloud cover expected again today, have trended twd the cooler guidance today, but warmer guidance tonight. However, with the front pushing south into the area, did trend slightly cooler for nrn portions of the CWA.
Surface pressures remain high and although the upper ridge weakens, it should still have enough influence to continue the dry weather that has been entrenched in the area for some time now.
Dry weather with warmer temperatures expected through the weekend.
348 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017 (Tonight and Thursday) Upper level high pressure will build into the area from the east the next 24 hours, with generally dry and slightly warmer temperatures expected for Thursday. Other than a few showers possible across Crockett County, dry conditions will prevail on Thursday, with afternoon highs in the lower and middle 80s.
Sunny skies across the area this morning with dry high pressure now reestablished. This, combined with upper ridging aloft will keep convection at bay and skies VFR. /issued 425 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017/ Early morning sfc analysis continues to show high pressure centered along the mid-Atlantic coastline ridging swwd through the wrn Gulf states, maintaining a light mostly erly low-level flow over the forecast area. Water vapor imagery shows ridging now in place from srn TX newd through the mid-South to the mid-Atlantic with the recent inverted trof which passed the region now off to our west. 00z U/A analysis shows the axis of better moisture associated with the inverted trof has moved wwd over the past 24 hours with drier air now encroaching the region from the east.
Majority of shower and isolated thunderstorm activity this morning has been along and north of a weak trough axis from Baffin Bay to Pleasanton. The convergence axis will continue to move inland along with the higher moisture through this afternoon.
H5 ridge over the SE U. The position of the ridge and energy well to our north will keep a surface frontal boundary just off to our north and west in the short term.
/issued 345 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017/ WV imagery shows the west coast trough beginning to eject NE from NoCal, while the upper ridge has built west and is centered over the ArklaTex. The low-lvl theta-e ridge persists, but has moved a bit further west into NM.
Further north, some patchy morning fog will affect areas along the Highway 2 corridor, otherwise it will be mostly sunny but cool today. On Thursday, the upper level low will stall over Central MT, resulting in a few scattered rain or snow showers continuing over Southwest MT.
321 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017 Skies are partly cloudy across the forecast area this afternoon with temperatures in the low to mid 80s. High pressure remains anchored over the southeast U.
A vigorous vorticity maxima rotated through the back side of a broad upper trough yesterday and advected in a cooler air mass aloft. This cooler air filtered down and sunk into our regional valleys before optimal radiational cooling under clear skies and light winds brought temperatures even lower. Model data supports a general warming trend aloft over the coming days, however, we could see another chilly (but slightly warmer overall) morning tomorrow with clear skies, light winds, and some lingering cool air.
257 PM PDT Wed Oct 4 2017 *Impacts: Freezing temperatures for portions of the Scott Valley in California tonight. These clear skies will allow temperatures to plummet once again to near freezing for many areas of southern Oregon and northern California. Although temperatures will be warmer tonight (as compared to last night) for the most part, have issued a frost advisory for several areas west of the Cascades, and a freeze warning for portions of the Scott Valley and southeast of McCloud, CA. ) This should be the last night of frosty or freezing temperatures west of the Cascades.
This trough should clear out the low clouds overnight as winds behind it turn downslope. Warmer and mainly dry weather expected Thursday with clouds increasing again in the afternoon as an impulse moves into the central Rockys.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Convection is far more isolated this afternoon as compared to the previous day thanks to just a bit less moisture in the lower to mid levels. There is also less mid level forcing this afternoon an H5 ridge is shifting westward over deep south Texas with mid level dry air and subsidence increasing. This mid level disturbance is rather weak, and with increasing dry air and subsidence, do expect precip to remain isolated to scattered through the day Thursday, with only slight chances across the Lower to Mid RGV by the afternoon hours. As far as coastal hazards go, the long easterly fetch across the Gulf will keep elevated swells in place for the Lower Texas Coastal Waters.
Sunny skies and only a few cumulus clouds are seen on visible satellite this afternoon as high pressure stays centered over the southern Appalachians and mid Atlantic states at mid afternoon. Upper ridge over local area begins to break down over the next 24 hours with weak front over Ohio Valley that moves little and tropical system continues moving north through the Caribbean Sea. Thursday again warming to upper 70s to possibly as warm as mid 80s a degree or 2 warmer than today.
Going forecast was in good shape, main update was to account for the low clouds over the eastern zones. Sunshine should warm places up to the 50s most places, but only 40s for Phillips County where melting snow will keep it cooler. Lingering snow cover will keep temperatures somewhat cooler today over part of Phillips County today. Upper low that is currently over Nevada will drift northeast today and elongate. The leading edge of this low will move across Montana tonight.
Currently, S/WV mid level ridge moving east across the Dakotas ahead of a large upper level low spinning over the Intermountain West. Otherwise expect a mostly clear sky north with winds tapering off allowing temperatures to fall into the lower 30s. S/WV ridge reforms for Thursday along with high pressure redeveloping across the state.
Cool, moist airmass in place with a warm front just to our southeast (from the central TX Panhandle through northwest OK to southeast KS) is setting the stage for a likely widespread dense fog event. With the warm front lifting slowly north tonight, temperatures will hold steady all night, if not slowly rise through the mid 60s (south).
254 PM MDT Wed Oct 4 2017 An upper low currently sits across the Great Basin into the northern Rockies. Just north of the upper low is upper ridging across BC Canada setting up a blocking pattern over the western to central CONUS. A weak cold front will push through with some light showers possible over portions of northeast WY and northwest SD.
308 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017 Water vapor loops highlight a sharpening, deepening mid-upper level trough across the Florida Peninsula and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. To the east of this upper trough, an inverted trough in the low level easterlies has slowed and sharpened over the Bahamas and west- central Cuba.
400 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017 As of 20z Wednesday afternoon an upper level trough was centered across southern Idaho. At the surface, the cold front has slowly pushed into southern KS.
Otherwise, upper-level ridge to maintain dry conditions today with high temperatures forecast to climb into the mid 80s.
254 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017 Main concerns will be possible fog development tonight, especially in our southwest as a warm front approaches. Also, as the warm front approaches, chances for rain will increase. We will also likely begin the first waves of potentially heavy rain as we have good moisture transport by tomorrow, and hence issued a Flood Watch for our southeastern CWA as a cold front works its way slowly southeast.
448 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017 Running late due to tropical cyclone wording inclusion in the products that are driven by the NHC advisory issuances.
At the same time, the warm upper high breaks down enough to allow a weak west to east frontal system to sag into central Ohio and southwest Pennsylvania Thursday, before lifting back north late Thursday. Consequently, temperatures in the north will be cooler Thursday, but continued very warm in the south with more sun.
330 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017 The forecast area remains dominated by an upper ridge through the period. although the ridge slides westward a bit by Thursday.
234 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017 A weakening cold front will drift southeast across the state tonight before temporarily stalling out across southern PA. The stalled front will lift back north as a warm front late this week bringing mild conditions along with a chance of showers into the weekend. With clouds and a SW flow, overnight lows will average 5-10 deg warmer than last night.
Upstream energy shows this boundary will interact with upper low in the intermountain region for the next 4 days.
A frontal boundary will settle into the region and stall overnight, before returning back northward as a warm front later in the week as the accompanying cold front pushes toward the area.
The highly amplified ridge which was over the eastern U. For the remainder of the overnight hours into today, the chance of showers with some embedded thunder will continue, with areas in the far southwest CWA into west central MO having the higher pops. Cooler temperatures today will be in the northwest CWA with the best rain chances, while the southeast CWA may climb back into the low 80s. The low instability will keep precipitation as mostly showers with maybe a few embedded thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain fairly mild with cloud cover and readings will be in the low to mid 60s once again.
Very scattered showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder will be possible through daybreak even further south, as more widespread convection tries to build along and north of the warm front in North Central and eastern Nebraska by daybreak.
404 PM MDT Wed Oct 4 2017 Eastern Utah and western Colorado will remain sandwiched between a strong upper level low over the northern Great Basin and a flat ridge of high pressure over West Texas.
129 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017 High pressure extending into the area from the northeast will shift slowly eastward over the next few days.
With cloud cover and warm air advection ahead of the approaching trough, overnight lows will be warmer than what we saw this morning.
301 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017 A relative lull in precipitation chances will take place tonight into early Thursday morning with a cold front stalled out between I- 72 and I-70, then precipitation will increase Thursday as southerly flow across the area pushes the front northward as a warm front. Areas between I-72 and I-70 may see high temperatures increase a few degrees to around 80 due to the northward migration of the front through the day, but otherwise temperatures will be roughly the same as Wednesday with highs from the lower and mid 70s north of I-72 and the lower 80s south of I-70.
104 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017 Cold front continues to move southeastward into central IL this morning, currently near the Illinois River with winds shifting from southwesterly to northwesterly behind the front and dewpoints lowering from near 70 to near 60. Cold front still appears it will stall out near I-70 by this evening. A cold front currently extending from eastern Wisconsin to northern Missouri will sag slowly southward today. Given abundant cloud cover and showers, high temperatures today will be several degrees cooler than yesterday. Further southeast where less precip is expected, highs will once again reach the lower 80s south of the I-70 corridor.
251 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue into early this evening as a cold front sags through the area.
The highest rain chances will occur over the interior counties, but still only a 20-30% chance. Interaction between high pressure ridging across the mid-Atlantic states and lower pressure across the Bahamas and Caribbean will maintain a tight pressure gradient across the region with a strong and gusty east to northeast wind flow and elevated seas continuing over the Gulf waters today through Thursday with small craft advisory headlines remaining in place for all of the waters through the period.
An upper level closed low pressure system in central Idaho is moving northeastward this afternoon. Moisture around this low will impact southwest Montana and Lemhi county this afternoon through Thursday morning. Thursday the upper level low will remain over southwest Montana but moisture will be limited by the afternoon so expect precipitation to gradually diminish.
Lowered highs just a couple of degrees north of Devils Lake, where it is still in the lower 40s and clouds remain. The upper low will move east of the area by sunrise this morning. The early morning cloud cover and breezy west winds will keep morning temperatures generally in the low to mid 40s. The increasing clouds should only reach about the Highway 2 corridor tonight, allowing northern zones to remain clear throughout the night with winds dying down to 5 mph or less. This will allow temps to drop into the mid-30s across the north while cloudy areas remain in the low 40s. Drier air aloft and upper level ridging will continue to bring dry, mild conditions with light and variable winds for Thursday and Thursday night.
229 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017 Aviation Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with a cold front will move through this morning, followed by decreasing cloudiness from the west behind the front this afternoon.
351 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017 Scattered showers will taper off through the rest of the afternoon as a weakening cold front pushes through the remainder of SE MI. Dewpoints falling into the upper 40s, nearly a 20 degree decrease post frontal, with PWATS falling below an inch with the approaching ridge will provide clear skies heading into the overnight. A brief dry period tonight into Thursday as high pressure keeps the baroclinic zone to our south, aligned with the mean zonal flow setting up. This will be short lived as the next low pressure system is already in the works developing in the lee of the Rockies.
It will remain mainly clear north of highway 2 tonight with winds becoming light and variable after sunset which will help bring our temps down into the low to mid 30s for areas north of highway 2. Lows in the southern forecast area should remain warmer in the high 30s and low 40s mainly due to clouds moving in overnight.
148 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017 Aviation Cold front currently pushing through the area will bring improving ceilings/vis over the next few hours as it sweeps eastward. High pressure will build into the area overnight, providing light winds. Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with a cold front will move through this morning, followed by decreasing cloudiness from the west behind the front this afternoon.
Rather synoptically quiescent during the next 24 hours as deep-layer dry air advection continues between deeply reflected plains ridge and approaching tropical wave over the western Caribbean. Accelerated easterlies prevail in the lower troposphere. Lows in the low to mid 60s tonight with highs generally in the upper 80s tomorrow.
415 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017 A cold front will advance across the area into this evening.
345 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017 A mild night ahead as a warm front lifts northeast into western Nebraska tonight. The low clouds in the southwest spread north and east overnight, where temperatures should fall a few degrees overnight with low temperatures by daybreak still in the 50s.
440 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017 Aviation section updated A frontal boundary will settle into the region and stall overnight, before returning back northward as a warm front later in the week as the accompanying cold front pushes toward the area.
145 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017 High pressure will extend from the western Atlantic to the central Appalachians for the next few days. Previous discussion: 00Z upper air data indicate the sub- tropical/mid to upper level ridge has split, with one center over the VA's and another over the lower MS Valley. A shear axis, and embedded upper level perturbation now over the Carolinas, has developed in the break in the ridge. This shear axis will linger over the sern US, while a broad trough aloft develops/amplifies across sern Canada.
A cold front is currently moving east across Michigan into our region.
703 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018 A ridge of high pressure will extend further south through the Northland into Friday. Mostly clear skies will persist under the influence by this high pressure system. Tonight will be colder with lows from the low single digits above zero to 10 above. Friday will continue to be under mostly clear skies and it will be a bit warmer with highs from the mid thirties to lower forties.
An elongated high pressure ridge will remain over the area. A high pressure ridge over the area will keep winds 10 knots or less.
746 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Periodic snow showers and cold temperatures are expected the rest of the week under upper level low pressure.
/issued 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018/ Southerly wind did increase today as high pressure moved to eastern gulf and low pressure increasing over central high plains. A nwd movg warm front late tonight will bring increasing showers and a few tstms into the area, mainly north LA, early in the day Friday. As this low topped warm air advection showers dissipate and sunshine comes out, a potential for rapid tstm initiation comes into play, but only for a narrow time window, if at all.
Showers associated with the Pacific low pressure system noted across eastern Oregon and portions of southwestern Idaho this evening.
1200 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018 A challenging forecast, with temperatures very close or just below freezing making precipitation type difficult to forecast. Most models agree that temperatures will fall to near freezing across most of north central Nebraska late tonight, and then hover in the 30 to 32 degree range most of the day Friday. So with the temperatures expected to be just below freezing, icing will likely occur.
The temperatures have warmed to the lower 70s and relative humidity is in the 20 to 25 percent range. Expect there to be some showers as the upper low moves through the area. On Friday, the low moves to the east and there will be a little cooler air moving into the area. As the temperatures cool off Friday evening, there could be a mix of some rain or snow, but there is also a small chance that there could be a little freezing rain. The period for any freezing precipitation should be rather narrow and it should be mostly rain mixing with or changing to snow for the northwest part of the forecast area.
High and mid-level clouds will be on the increase overnight ahead of organizing low pressure system.
806 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 VFR under high pressure. Clockwise flow around the high has veered winds northeasterly this afternoon across South Florida. Maximum temperatures, similar to yesterday, have struggled to reach the low to mid 70s. Thus, minimum temperatures, although still below average, will be around 5 degrees warmer than last nights.
1236 AM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 Aviation High pressure over western Ontario will move southeast over the Great Lakes Friday setting up a few days of sunshine.
The freezing level has increased from 9500 feet this morning to 10900 feet this evening.
Sunny skies should boost temperatures into the upper 30s and lower 40s on Friday, with onshore winds resulting in slightly cooler readings near the lakeshore. Friday Night Through Thursday Canadian high pressure will keep the forecast area dry through the weekend.
Central Indiana will remain under the influence of high pressure through today, yet.
While the boundary layer undergoes slight decoupling tonight and surface winds correspondingly back, an influx of poorly modified Gulf moisture will occur -- aided by a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet within the cyclone's warm sector. This moisture will eventually be manifest at the surface via shear-driven and then diurnally enhanced mixing late tonight into Friday within a narrow corridor arching eastward/southeastward from a surface cyclone migrating eastward across northern Kansas. Larger-scale downslope flow within the southern semicircle of the cyclone will encourage the eastward and eventual northeastward spread of the diurnally- enhanced deep boundary layer into portions of northeast Kansas Friday afternoon. An influx of continental air behind the departing cyclone will result in little in the way of impactful weather through much of the weekend.
For tonight and Friday, amplified ridging aloft and a dry airmass under high pressure will build further into the Northern Plains. A deep dry layer from the lower levels to 300mb will keep all but some drifting cirrus clouds at bay tonight. Expect more of the same in terms of temperatures and mostly sunny skies for Friday, as an upper low cuts into the Central Plains and holds quiet weather and high pressure in the Northern Plains.
Main center of the upper low apparent on radar, over southeastern Weld County. Some minor adjustments in terms of timing this evening, have delayed the higher pops by a couple of hours, otherwise will leave the rest of the grids. Water vapor satellite imagery showing the upper level trough tracking across the Great Basin at this time. Snow showers will continue to increase over the mountains this afternoon as the upper level trough nears the state. If the low intensifies and slows even more. As far as the High Wind Watch goes for the foothills, will cancel it. After Friday's weather system moves off to the central plains, an upper ridge will build over the state with drier and warmer weather.
822 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 A strong area of low pressure over the Northeast U.
1053 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018 Winter storm moving through the area through Friday night will bring a variety of weather to the area, including rain, thunderstorms, freezing rain, sleet and snow.
Strong low pressure currently across far eastern Colorado will continue to slide east overnight, with rain and isolated thunderstorms expected to develop in the warm advection regime, mainly across far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, ahead of the low.
952 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 A trough of low pressure will linger across the eastern Great Lakes through Friday.
18Z surface data has high pressure over the upper Midwest with a stationary front from the Ohio Valley into the central Plains. Dew points in the 30s and higher ran from the lower Ohio Valley into the central Plains on south. If this occurs, a rain/sleet mix would be possible on the leading edge of the precipitation before changing over to all rain as latent heat release warms the lower atmosphere.
Higher column moisture leading to this overcast will create several mild mornings in the lower to middle 60s. A warm and humid air advection pattern as a tightened onshore pressure gradient keeps a steady dose of upper 60 to lower 70 F dew point air in place ahead of an early week cold frontal passage.
A weak and narrow ridge over the Midwest keeps the weather sunny and quiet today. Although previous runs have developed some precip along a developing warm front feature ahead of the next storm system, latest runs across the board slower with the progression of the precip. Weak ridging aloft slides to the east as the first of two waves ejects out of the SW and into the region without losing the parent trough to the west.
A few showers could still rotate around the low across southern Washington. Another weak upper low could produce additional showers this weekend but most areas will see little if any rain and partial sunshine.