Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Lows in the lower to middle 20s still looks on target, with wind chills as low as the lower teens in most valley areas, and single digits atop the higher Cumberland Plateau elevations. Dry west-northwest flow aloft will persist across the TN Valley tomorrow, as an amplified trough in the northern stream advances eastward into eastern Quebec/northern New England by 00Z Thursday. Thus, we actually expect lows to be a degree or so warmer on Thursday morning, but values should still be in the l-m 20s. Winds aloft will back further to the west-southwest during the afternoon downstream from an amplifying longwave trough extending from eastern Canada into the central Rockies, and this coupled with abundant sunshine and light/variable flow in the boundary layer will allow highs to reach the l-m 50s.
251 AM CST Wed Jan 26 2022 High pressure moves directly over Illinois today, resulting in sunny skies and light winds. The high pressure will slide east this afternoon, shifting winds to southerly. By Thursday morning, a low-pressure system will be positioned near the Hudson Bay with a cold front extending southwest onto the central Plains. There could also be some flurries or sprinkles in the vicinity of the cold front as it moves through the area Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. Following the cold frontal passage Thursday evening, another push of cold air moves in as Canadian high pressure drops towards the Midwest once again.
High pressure currently approaching SW MN will continue to push an arctic air mass into the upper Midwest and central IL through tonight, with lows below zero from I-72 northward expected overnight, along with a steady 10 mph wind from the northwest. The high pressure will move across central IL during the day Wednesday, resulting in a light and variable wind, eventually shifting to southerly after the high moves off to the east.
A cold front continues to drop southward across the area with a band of light rain and snow showers from Clints well to the I-40 corridor near Holbrook. Behind the front, expect locally breezy northeasterly winds along and south of the high terrain. An upper low will continue to pivot into northern Arizona later this afternoon and tonight. The latest HREF and NBM guidance indicates at least a slight chance for showers along the attendant cold front, primarily along and north of a line from Flagstaff to Show Low between 5pm-11pm tonight. Cooler and drier air will filter in behind the departing low Wednesday, with Wednesday high temperatures forecast to be below normal for this time of year. For Thursday, high pressure building into the Great Basin will reinforce cooler air across the region with breezy northeasterly winds developing by the afternoon.
As high pressure moves nearly overhead this afternoon and evening, winds will become light. Highs will range from the mid 20s in sw Indiana and kmvn area to near freezing along the Tennessee and Arkansas borders. As the high moves off to the east tonight, winds will become southwest. Another arctic cold front will arrive Thursday evening.
Northwest flow continues to reinforce cold advection as high pressure shifts southward this evening across the Midwest into the OH Valley. Moisture in the low levels pooled on the windward side of the Appalachians continues to favor low stratus in the valley/foothills, which should sct out through mid morning. Clouds continue to clear out across Eastern Tennessee as high pressure settles to the northwest. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 27 43 25 50 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 24 39 22 48 32 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 24 39 22 47 31 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 21 36 18 44 29 / 0 0 0 0 10.
This band of fog will likely mix out over the next couple of hours as northerly winds slowly increase to around 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the wake of the approaching cold front. Just made some minor adjustments for tonight as some patchy fog has developed ahead of the actual cold front lagging back over Mississippi. Highs Wednesday will likely be in the low to mid 50s and then increasing to the low to mid 60s by Thursday.
High pressure is building in that coupled with the cold air will stifle and end any lake effect snow this morning. This is yet another trough rotating around the quasi stationary upper level low that continues to sit near Hudson Bay.
Many low lying areas outside of the Denver metro area should sink into the single digits, and it would be colder if it wasn't for the low level moisture and expected fog development. Upper level ridge moving across Colorado in the north-northwest flow aloft will bring a mostly sunny and dry day. There will be a brief respite on Wednesday as high pressure builds under moderate north to northwest flow aloft. This system almost looks similar to today's system though maybe not quite as strong and more limited moisture, but also has support with frontogenesis forcing in the lower to mid levels.
A cold, Canadian high pressure will slide southeast across the area through this evening. Significantly warmer air will move into the area on Wednesday with 925 mb temps reaching above 0C for much of the CWA by 21Z. A cold front moving into the CWA Wednesday night could bring light snow. The period opens with weak low pressure moving through central SD. Added in some pops for Thursday with the low in accordance with neighbors. NBM has no pops for that time period, but looks like it could be a low QPF, scattered flurry/shower event as the low slides southeast. The caveat is the strong high pressure to the east that may entrain very dry air into the region.
1027 PM MST Tue Jan 25 2022 Water vapor shows long wave trof over the central/eastern CONUS with northwest flow aloft across the Northern Plains. Short wave ridge is folding from the Pac NW through the Northern Rockies, with next upstream clipper diving southeast across northern BC. Winds will gradually turn west to northwest on Wednesday with surface trof moving through ahead of the next approaching cold front. Cold front sweeps through Wednesday and early Thursday as clipper moves through the Northern Plains.
1223 AM EST Wed Jan 26 2022 Arctic high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley tonight through Wednesday.
Highs will range from the mid/upper 20s across most of our area with the possibility of low 30s to just near freezing near the TN/KY border. Lows bottom out into the low/mid teens.
1220 AM EST Wed Jan 26 2022 Strong high pressure across the Mississippi Valley region will build east through Thursday. The high will crest over the area Thursday afternoon before moving offshore.
Warmer temperatures for the weekend. Despite the high, some mid level clouds associated with a system out over western Kansas and eastern Colorado will invade much of the area overnight. With the high to our north there will remain a slight pressure gradient, so the winds will push wind chills down into the single digits above and below zero. The high slides eastward Wednesday, with southeasterly winds occuring. An elongated trough pushes through the area later Thursday and Thursday night, with a surface cold front pushing through. Temperatures ahead of the front will reach into the low 40s Thursday afternoon.
1032 PM CST Tue Jan 25 2022 A strong area of high pressure at the surface will move east of the area overnight, which will allow south to southwest flow to develop. A nice nose of warmer air will build into the area on Wednesday and bring mild and windy conditions. While snow chances with this wave are not great, will add some light snow into the forecast as the cold front Thursday brings a little moisture and more favorable thermal profile to support snowfall.
Surface obs showed high pressure centered over northern MO. The limited insolation may also cause temps to be a degree or two cooler. An upper level trough axis is progged to sweep across the central plains on Thursday bringing another cold front through the area. It still looks like highs Thursday could make it into the lower 40s.
1017 PM EST Tue Jan 25 2022 Arctic high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley tonight through Wednesday.
Expect a gradual warm-up in temperatures over the course of the week with Wednesday's high flirting with the freezing threshold in west-central MO and eastern Kansas and ranging into the lower 20s in northern MO. Thursday promises temperatures above freezing as afternoon highs are forecast to range between the upper 30s in northern MO and into the lower 40s for central and southern MO.
1021 PM CST Tue Jan 25 2022 Latest surface analysis shows a large area of high pressure over the north central CONUS. The center of this high will sink southeastward into Missouri and Illinois by tomorrow morning causing the winds to become light and variable at the same time skies will be mainly clear. There will be a upper trough that will be dropping south toward the area late tomorrow night, but the atmosphere will be dry through a deep layer so will keep the forecast dry. There will be some weak lift ahead of this trough on Thursday at the same time that the attendant cold front will move across Missouri and Illinois.
623 AM EST Wed Jan 26 2022 Bitterly cold temperatures expected through Wednesday night as Arctic high pressure builds in.
South winds will continue to increase this morning as the high continues to slide southeast and strong low pressure passes to the north across Canada.
Winds will eventually diminish by early evening in advance of another cold front.
A cold front has worked through the area and cooler temperatures are filtering in. High pressure will continue to build through tonight and then slide into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast on Thursday. An inverted trough will develop across the northwest and then slide south and east as the high pressure system slides further away.
The low ceilings may also create slick spots on elevated surfaces. Overnight Wednesday, low temperatures will fall into the low teens to lower 20s. Thursday, another trough moves through the region from the northwest. A colder air mass moves in behind this trough with western portions of the CWA falling into the single digits for overnight lows.
646 AM EST Wed Jan 26 2022 Cold air remains around the area between now and the weekend with only a slight warm up on Thursday ahead of a cold front.
327 AM CST Wed Jan 26 2022 Today and Tonight: In the wake of yesterday's cold front passage, today will be cool, dry, and sunny.
315 AM PST Wed Jan 26 2022 A persistent, quiet weather pattern featuring low clouds and patchy fog in the low lands and mostly clear skies in the mountains will persist through the work week and even into weekend.
327 AM MST Wed Jan 26 2022 Utah and southwest Wyoming will remain under northerly flow east of a ridge off the West Coast for much of the upcoming week.
/issued 309 AM CST Wed Jan 26 2022/ 08Z surface analysis places a 1037 mb ridge of arctic high pressure over Central Missouri this morning. Highs this afternoon will be in the 30s north to the lower 40s over North Mississippi. Lows tonight are expected to fall back into the lower 20s at most locations.
Reports from yesterday suggest the snowfield is pretty crusty, thus feel that most blowing snow should be confined to just east of the ridge line. The period begins Thursday evening with northwesterly flow aloft across the Northern Plains, and a large upper-ridge across the western US. At the surface, high pressure will be sliding southeast across western Minnesota, post cold-frontal.
The SREF, the best predictor so far, suggests erosion will be complete by 18z but there is a chance the moisture and clouds will become trapped across the lower elevations of scntl Nebraska. A weak Pacific cold front located across MT this morning will move through wrn and ncntl Nebraska tonight. The front will be followed by an upper level trof Thursday featuring h700mb temperatures between -15C and -20C.
Wouldn't be surprised to see some gusts approach advisory criteria along the more terrain favored areas of the Buffalo Ridge, and while values are borderline, will issue a focused Wind Advisory to help highlight perhaps some blowing/drifting snow potential. The true cold front and associated CAA arrives from north to south for Thursday and likely sets up a non-diurnal temperature curve, especially for the northern FA.
40" suggest a little moisture is making its way over the Pacific ridge in the presence of light broad scale lift as a passing vort max crosses. Model forecast soundings suggest a warm nose will sneak in this afternoon causing loss of ice and this may turn some of the QPF to freezing drizzle especially south of Highway 2. Breezy south winds will warm surface temperatures, and they will follow a non- diurnal curve today and tomorrow with the high occurring around midnight.
Midlevel height rises build in today which keeps conditions quiet and dry, but with the thermal trough remaining overhead will likely see temps rise only into the teens this afternoon despite a good deal of sunshine. Wind direction shifts to the southwest by midday as high pressure expands from the Ohio Valley into the eastern Great Lakes.
From the synopsis, moderate to fresh southerly breezes this morning will become southwest to west and weaken this afternoon, as low pressure over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico degenerates into a trough.
300 AM MST Wed Jan 26 2022 Current surface analysis shows warm front moving east across western SD, with temps slowly rising in many areas behind it. Upper level analysis shows large scale trough over the eastern US, with northwest flow from the western US through the midwest. Cold front across central Canada will slide south- southeast into the Northern Plains later tonight and Thursday. Froude number suggests the more significant snowfall will develop over the higher slopes of the northern BH, where a few inches of snowfall is likely late tonight into Thursday afternoon.
Associated surface cold front will make its way across the region late Thurs night. Diffuse coastal troffiness across the mid & lower TX coast, some Pacific moisture and mid/upper level disturbances embedded in the mid-upper flow, and incoming cold front should allow for some precip development across parts of the area. The further west one goes from a College Station-Galveston line will see the higher POPs going ito the late night hours Thurs.
High temperatures will be a little warmer than yesterday, but still 10 to 15 degrees below normal. A cold front will move across the area Thursday, accompanied by scattered snow showers.
High pressure will continue to dominate throughout the remainder of Wednesday, allowing for ample sunshine, light winds, but cold temperatures. High temperatures will range from the mid 20s across southern Indiana to the low 30s along and south of the Cumberland Parkway. Highs will range from the mid/upper 20s across most of our area with the possibility of low 30s to just near freezing near the TN/KY border. Lows bottom out into the low/mid teens.
(Today and tonight) The upper low that will bring snow to western Oklahoma today was moving eastward from Western NM early this morning. The track of the upper low is still expected to cross the southern TX panhandle this afternoon and follow near the Red River through the evening as it dampens into a weakening open wave.
The weak cold front is forecast to move through early this morning. Tomorrow's highs will be slightly cooler than today's with temperatures in the lower 60s.
The low's center will swing southeast of the CWA by sunrise and slowly pull the plume of moisture away from the southwest San Juans.
/NF/ Today and Tonight: In the wake of yesterday's cold front passage, today will be cool, dry, and sunny.
419 AM EST Wed Jan 26 2022 The Keys have been in the warm sector of weak low pressure over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the night. Southerly breezes have held temperatures in the lower to mid 70s, with dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70. Surface analysis depicts the aforementioned low pressure over the SE Gulf, with a warm front extending eastward over South Florida.
202 AM PST Wed Jan 26 2022 A persistent, quiet weather pattern featuring low clouds and patchy fog in the low lands and mostly clear skies in the mountains will persist through the work week and even into weekend.
The upper low is located over northwestern New Mexico, with some light snow showers lingering along the southern border of Colorado. The upper low to the south will track across central New Mexico and reach the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles through the day. As for high temps today, areas that received minimal to nil snowfall should warm today into the upper 30s to lower 40s, while the areas that did receive snow will struggle to climb above the lower 30s. Plan on a cold night with lows in the 0 to 10 degree range for the high valleys, and in the teens for the plains. Moore Upper wave and associated cold front drop south through the state on Thu, bringing a quick round of light snow to most locations during the day.
944 AM EST Wed Jan 26 2022 Bitterly cold temperatures expected through Wednesday night as Arctic high pressure builds in.
Winds increase Thursday and will last through the evening as a trough passes to the northeast. The trough that brought chilly winds to the region yesterday and snow showers along the eastern Mogollon Rim, in the White Mountains and along the New Mexico border continues to move east out of the area with showers in Apache County ending by mid morning. Winds will decrease through the day as the low pushes farther east.
213 AM MST Wed Jan 26 2022 A warm front has moved to the east early this morning. Then, a cold front will drop south this morning with gusty NW winds developing. Very good mixing and modest cold air advection behind the front will allow temperatures to warmer that yesterday for highs in most areas today.
That said, warm conditions across the region today, may result in initial snow melting on roadways and re- freezing overnight, so morning commute Thursday could be a concern. Upper level ridging will begin shifting east into the area Thursday. Lee troughing will redevelop along the foothills through the day, and wind will again be on the rise.
Through the course of the day, temps wl not warm drastically under persistent N/Erly winds, and far N/Ern AR staying in the low to mid 30s, w/ mid 40s elsewhere. Given poor column moisture progs, particularly in the low-lvls, have opted to exclude Chc PoPs in this fcst cycle, w/ mentions of non- accumulating precip, including some snow flurries over N/Wrn AR, the higher terrain of the Ozarks, and far Nrn AR as the system makes its departure early Thurs morning.
Winds will be on the increase this afternoon and tonight as a cold front associated with the next clipper system approaches the area. medium confidence The next clipper system passes well to the north but will drag its associated cold front through the area.
Deterministic guidance shows pressure gradients steepening over the Sierra Nevada and Cascade ranges as the current upper ridge continues to shift eastward. Otherwise, an in bound trough is being signaled by the ensemble cluster. Amplitude of the trough is in less agreement between the ensemble but the percentage of spread does show that the timing is becoming more certain.
Clouds begin to build into the area this morning as a weak cold front passes through. The weak cold front is forecast to move through early this morning. Tomorrow's highs will be slightly cooler than today's with temperatures in the lower 60s.
Temperatures won't make it much past the freezing mark this afternoon even with mostly sunny skies and very very dry conditions.
232 AM PST Wed Jan 26 2022 Blocking high pressure will likely maintain dry and generally quiet weather through the end of January.
08Z surface analysis places a 1037 mb ridge of arctic high pressure over Central Missouri this morning. Highs this afternoon will be in the 30s north to the lower 40s over North Mississippi. Lows tonight are expected to fall back into the lower 20s at most locations.
For temps, as precipitation wanes and skies begin to thin out, the combination of the area snowpack, some clearing and decent caa, the Tri State area will se overnight lows range from the upper single numbers above zero to the lower teens in spots.
High pressure will continue with subtle changes in the day to day forecast.
412 AM EST Wed Jan 26 2022 Bitterly cold temperatures expected through Wednesday night as Arctic high pressure builds in.
High pressure will remain the dominate feature over the Northern Rockies for the rest of the week, going into the weekend.
523 AM CST Wed Jan 26 2022 (Today and tonight) The upper low that will bring snow to western Oklahoma today was moving eastward from Western NM early this morning. The track of the upper low is still expected to cross the southern TX panhandle this afternoon and follow near the Red River through the evening as it dampens into a weakening open wave.
405 AM MST Wed Jan 26 2022 Current surface analysis shows warm front moving east across western SD, with temps slowly rising in many areas behind it. Upper level analysis shows large scale trough over the eastern US, with northwest flow from the western US through the midwest. Cold front across central Canada will slide south- southeast into the Northern Plains later tonight and Thursday. Froude number suggests the more significant snowfall will develop over the higher slopes of the northern BH, where a few inches of snowfall is likely late tonight into Thursday afternoon.
Upper level ridging with NNW flow aloft pushes into Colorado today promoting dry conditions. 700 mb temperatures are 5-10 C warmer than yesterday across the plains, so expect warmer temperatures this afternoon. Although, highs are still expected to be slightly below normal in the low 40s across the plains. Chances for light snow increase over the higher terrain after midnight as the next system approaches with favorable QG-ascent over the north central mountains.
531 AM EST Wed Jan 26 2022 High pressure will build in from the west today and cross the region Thursday.
Most of this precipitation will be coming to an end this afternoon, but with the low level northeast flow persisting cannot rule out a light shower/sprinkle moving west over the interior counties through Thursday.
1010 AM PST Wed Jan 26 2022 A persistent, quiet weather pattern featuring low clouds and patchy fog in the low lands and mostly clear skies in the mountains will persist through the work week and even into weekend.
BMickelson Previous discussion: A warm front has moved to the east early this morning. Then, a cold front will drop south this morning with gusty NW winds developing. Very good mixing and modest cold air advection behind the front will allow temperatures to warmer that yesterday for highs in most areas today.
Refreezing on roadways may also be an issue as a result of the blowing snow. We will see milder conditions into Thursday before a cold frontal passage will drop temperatures, but not as bitter as the past couple of days.
247 PM EST Wed Jan 26 2022 Arctic high pressure prompts a burst of cold temperatures through tonight.
1134 AM CST Wed Jan 26 2022 (The rest of today ) Upper low currently over New Mexico will continue to shift eastward throughout the day and weaken some as it does so. Precip will likely begin as rain as temperatures are expected to be above freezing, but quickly change to snow within the heaviest precipitation.
225 PM CST Wed Jan 26 2022 Cool, but dry conditions have prevailed today with plenty of sunshine thanks to high pressure prevailing at the surface. Heading into tonight, a weak mid-level trough will swing through the region. Slightly warmer temperatures will occur tomorrow with a range of the lower 50s in the north to the upper 50s/around 60 in the south.
1048 AM EST Wed Jan 26 2022 An upper level trough will drift across the region this morning before lifting northeast across Upstate New York and New England tonight and Thursday.
337 PM EST Wed Jan 26 2022 Discussion/Marine - Some impacts look possible Thursday due to the snow A positively tilted mid level trough pushes eastward through the CWA on Thursday.