Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Low temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 60s. Low temperatures in the low to mid 60s.
Thunderstorms are likely Monday afternoon or overnight as the cold front moves through.
Should see sunshine today before widespread CU development with strong WAA along/ahead of pre-frontal trough to see highs today in the mid to upper 80s (maybe a few 90s). Chances increase midday as pre-frontal trough axis shifts over our CWA orientated southwest to northeast across our CWA, with moisture pooling/destabilization through mid afternoon. Any lingering activity ends Monday morning as front pushes completely south of the region and high pressure/dry air mass spreads southeast. As cold front finally pushes across our CWA through the evening we get "scoured out" and severe threat should rapidly diminish north to south.
823 PM PDT Sat Aug 3 2019 High pressure returns with warming temperatures over the weekend.
Otherwise, low temperatures tonight will fall into the low 70s to 80s.
236 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019 High pressure will build in from the west today and will provide for sunny weather and temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Lows will bottom out in the low 40s at the best radiators in Coos County to the upper 40s to mid 50s elsewhere.
The upper level ridge gets dampened by an upper low tracking across Canada, putting the northern plains in more of a northwest flow aloft. The majority of this forecast period will exhibit northwesterly upper flow as the region remains situated between a western CONUS upper ridge and an upper trough across the Hudson Bay region in Canada. A surface cold front is expected to be splayed out across our southern forecast area and/or southern portion of SD on Monday.
Temperatures will be cooler with increased cloud cover and better coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
342 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019 High pressure will dominate region into Monday with ideal late summer weather expected.
A few showers/storms could approach from the northwest early Monday morning as the cold front begins to sink south into the area. Cold front will be moving southeast through the area on Monday, which should provide the focus for storms.
210 AM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019 Upper level ridging continues to drift westward and is progged to continue to do so the next 24-36 hours when it pulls up over northern Arizona/southern Utah. This will result in a contination of northerly upper flow over the southern High Plains which should keep mountain convection in New Mexico from getting too far off the high terrain.
329 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019 High pressure will dominate region into Monday with ideal late summer weather expected.
The upper high/ridge centered in the four corners remains locked in and the weak elongated upper trof persists from the western Gulf of Mexico through the TN Valley into the northeastern U. An anticyclone centered in the Great Lakes continues to dominate the low levels with east-northeast flow. Fewer clouds are expected today and this should translate to slightly warmer albeit seasonable highs in the upper 80s to around 90, but humidity will remain below average for early August. The evolution of a broader longwave trof in the east begins on Monday with falling heights across the Midwest attendant with an eastward moving short wave trof. In response the low level anticyclone that has been dominating our area will finally retreat east bringing low level southwest flow and weak WAA.
A short wave trough and a stalled frontal boundary across Se Ga along with seabreeze mergers will be the main focus for scattered afternoon and evening storms. Afternoon temps in the lower 90s inland and upper 80s to near 90 coast will produce heat indices of 100 to 105 degrees. Upper trough axis will be over forecast area during this period, promoting scattered to numerous afternoon/evening showers/t-storms each day. With the upper trough over the area, high/low temperatures will stay within a degree or two of normal.
The warmest day of the forecast period will be Monday as S/SW winds increase ahead of an approaching cold front.
1056 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019 A beautiful afternoon today as high pressure works in from the northeast. allowing temperatures to climb into the low to mid 80s. A broad area of high pressure aloft and troughing across the eastern states will keep much of the central conus in northwest flow. This will keep temperatures in check, but it will also keep us in a fairly unsettled pattern as several systems moving across the Northern Plains, and around the periphery of the ridge, bring us several more storm chances.
A cold front will sag into wrn and ncntl Nebraska Monday. Moisture will continue to pool along and behind the cold front with precipitable water increasing to 1. The forcing may not materialize and the cold front could end up south of wrn and ncntl Nebraska. A plume of subtropical mositure will continue to circulate around the subtropical ridge across the swrn U.
116 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019 High pressure over southeastern Ontario will slide slightly east overnight, allowing a cold front to cross Lake Erie on Sunday afternoon and stall over the Ohio Valley. High pressure will build back into the area for Monday.
352 AM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019 Not much change seen over the last couple days with the large scale flow still consisting of a high pressure dome centered over NW in control of the western CONUS with a series impulses dropping out of the western Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. Precip chances return Monday/Monday night is association with a cold front moving through.
Showers linger through Sunday evening ahead of the ridge shifting westward and introducing drier conditions late Sunday night and Monday. As the ridge shifts westward on Monday, drier conditions will move back in along with climbing temps.
1247 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019 High pressure provides dry weather overnight and Sunday morning.
An upper trough remains over the Tennessee valley/southern Appalachians with the main forcing being terrain features. Surface ridging will keep winds light except near storms.
Weak short wave/ mid-level circulation over southeastern Alabama in the base of the stationary upper trough seems to be concentrating the better convection to the west of the forecast area. Upper trough axis sharpens up a bit over the region Sunday and we should see better coverage of convection. 20 Relatively wet/active pattern will continue for at least one more day (Monday), but it does appear that the persistent upper "troughiness" that's been over the region for days will give way to more of a "northwest flow" pattern as we head through the work week. Longwave trough axis expected to finally sweep across the area Monday which will support higher POPs, especially across the southern and eastern counties of our area (basically along and south/east of I-85).
Dry weather is expected again tonight as High pressure over the Great Lakes remains the dominate weather feature.
An upper level long wave trough is in place aloft of the eastern CONUS with a ribbon of PV that stretches across the north-central Gulf waters and into the tri-state area on Sunday. Though the trough will remain in place, the PV anomaly will lift northeastward Monday. Highs will be in the low 90s and lows will be in the low 70s.
No major changes to the weather pattern throughout the week, as upper trough will remain over the eastern U. High pressure across the Florida Straits will maintain southwest to west winds around 10 knots or less along with seas of 2 feet or less across the Gulf waters Sunday with an enhanced onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast Sunday afternoon.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): Mid-level ridging over the southwest United States and northwest Texas will continue to provide subsidence across much of the area. However, weak mid-level energy rotating around 500 mb ridge should pass over the eastern portions of Deep South Texas this afternoon.
Temperatures will remain hot today across the western Brush Country, with highs in the upper 90s to near 104 degrees, however farther east where rain chances are best, highs are expected to be "cooler" in the low to mid 90s.
High pressure building up from the desert southwest continues to bring a little mid-level moisture along with just enough instability to generate some isolated thunderstorms across portions of eastern NV this afternoon.
1018 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019 High pressure will build in from the west today and will provide for sunny weather and temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Mid level cloud deck over southern zones will continue to push south of the region through mid afternoon as associated cold front moves offshore. Lows will bottom out in the low 40s at the best radiators in Coos County to the upper 40s to mid 50s elsewhere.
722 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019 High pressure will dominate region into Monday with ideal late summer weather expected.
This is resulting in a greater inland extent to the low clouds, with satellite imagery indicating stratus filling inland valleys into the San Francisco Bay area. Higher clouds are obscuring some of the low clouds in the southern portion of the CWA, but low clouds appear to be filling the Salinas Valley as well.
An upper ridge will bring dry and warmer weather through Monday. An upper trough over the Northeast Pacific will slowly shift over the area later this week, cooling highs to near normal and bring a chance of showers late in the week.
A cold front will sag into wrn and ncntl Nebraska Monday. Moisture will continue to pool along and behind the cold front with precipitable water increasing to 1. The forcing may not materialize and the cold front could end up south of wrn and ncntl Nebraska. A plume of subtropical moisture will continue to circulate around the subtropical ridge across the swrn U.
Otherwise, most of the day should be fairly decent, and with the surface flow becoming more southerly will see temperatures warmer than yesterday - in the 80s across the entire area. Monday will be a more active day as the aforementioned cold front slides through the area during the day. High temperatures on Monday are expected to be in the lower to mid 80s.
616 AM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019 Not much change seen over the last couple days with the large scale flow still consisting of a high pressure dome centered over NW in control of the western CONUS with a series impulses dropping out of the western Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. Precip chances return Monday/Monday night in association with a cold front moving through.
VFR conditions will prevail across the Rio Grande Valley for the next 24 hours as high pressure provides subsidence across region. /issued 444 AM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): Mid-level ridging over the southwest United States and northwest Texas will continue to provide subsidence across much of the area. However, weak mid-level energy rotating around 500 mb ridge should pass over the eastern portions of Deep South Texas this afternoon.
753 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019 The current weather pattern over the Lower 48 state will remain consistent for much of this week. A weak cold front will drop across the area this afternoon and tonight, but will stall along or south of the Mason Dixon line.
General consensus among guidance is storm initiation around 10-11am over the higher terrain before moving into the lower elevations later in the afternoon/early evening hours. The most active area in the lower elevations may be Yavapai County as outflow boundaries push southwest off the higher terrain. A brief downturn in activity is possible on Monday as the high slides slightly west, almost directly over northern Arizona.
High temperatures look to be a bit cooler today in the mid to upper 90s as opposed to the triple digits. An upper level ridge centered over the four corners area will continue to be the main focus of the weather across west central Texas through the extended.
608 AM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019 Dry weather to prevail over the region both today and tomorrow as high pressure centered over the western Great Lakes extends southwest into our region. Temperatures will warm into the middle 80s today and upper 80s on Monday as high pressure slides east and southerly flow returns to the area.
Temperatures early this morning are a little cooler in Delta Breeze influenced areas, otherwise it's generally a little warmer. High pressure ridging will bring another very warm day today, with highs about 2 to 5 degrees above normal. The Four Corners ridge will shift eastward this week as an upper low developing off British Columbia approaches.
Broad high pressure over the desert southwest will continue to bring temperatures several degrees above average to start the week.
There will be another chance for a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, and again on Monday, mostly for the higher terrain of Southwest and Central Montana.
With weak upper troughing in the area, expected scattered convection this afternoon into the early evening before diminishing overnight. Upper level trough remains situated across the eastern CONUS today with SW flow at the mid and upper levels across the region. PoP forecast is generally 30-60% with the higher PoPs inland. Highs today will again be in the lower 90s with the upper 80s along the coast.
A shallow marine layer will keep the coastal areas cooler.
Thunderstorms will start to form on the higher elevations, and move off to the northeast during the later afternoon. Monday will see a weak cold front move across the area with dewpoints in the 50s in Central Wyoming and 45s in the west and south.
The flow veers to the northwest as the upper ridge axis builds into northern Idaho.
Deterministic and ensemble guidance show an upper-level trough moving into the Northeast Pacific and the ridge over the Southwest U.
Surface ridging will keep winds light except near storms.
Strong upper ridge axis will then remain in place over the SW states heading into the new work week, thereby maintaining NW flow across the SE region. High pressure will remain established across the Southern Plains of Texas and the Great Basin, with a broad upper trough over the Eastern CONUS.
809 AM MDT Sun Aug 4 2019 Morning Update: Just tweaked the winds and RH this morning to keep on top of fire weather potential, in the case of any new fire starts today and for the Ridgetop Fire in Petroleum County. Bigelbach PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Upper ridge flattening as an upper trof moves through central Canada today. With the flat ridge, Canadian high pressure will slip some cooler air south of the border for temperatures more in the 80s instead of 90s. As the trough moving across Canada digs toward the Great Lakes, the upper ridge shifts slightly westward as it rebounds.
The low clouds and visibility will be spotty but plan on contingencies at all three terminals through 15z. /issued 210 AM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019/ Upper level ridging continues to drift westward and is progged to continue to do so the next 24-36 hours when it pulls up over northern Arizona/southern Utah. This will result in a continuation of northerly upper flow over the southern High Plains which should keep mountain convection in New Mexico from getting too far off the high terrain.
645 AM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019 This morning, an upper level ridge has continued to persist over the Four Corners region, once again keeping our region in a northwest flow pattern. At the surface, high pressure is centered over the midwest with our region sitting on the southern fringe of the high pressure, resulting in light winds and clear skies across the area. A drier air mass will continue to usher in today as the aforementioned high pressure builds into Missouri. With high pressure and mostly sunny skies persisting into Monday, dry and warm conditions are expected to continue. Slightly more sunshine than Sunday and light southwesterly winds will provide the basis for high temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees across the area with heat indices in the low 90s.
Afternoon highs reaching the mid 90s are expected for the valleys of western Montana, and low 100s for the lower valleys of north-central Idaho.
324 AM MDT Sun Aug 4 2019 Fairly quiet morning across the region as we sit between a region of high pressure centered over CO and a frontal boundary descending from MT into WY. With the approach of next system, skies will gradually get more cloudy though that is not expecting to deter daytime highs today reaching into the upper 80s and low 90s over the high plains with low to mid 80s over the mountains. Overnight low will be from the low 50s to low 60s.
950 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019 Weak and broad low level troughing extends from off the southeast U. with anomalous strong southwest winds at 250 mb due to mid/upper level trough across the southeast. Southeast GA will be under better mid level forcing as mid to upper level trough pushes through that area today and tonight. Afternoon temps in the lower 90s inland and upper 80s to near 90 coast will produce heat indices of 100 to 105 degrees.
522 AM MDT Sun Aug 4 2019 Upper ridge flattening as an upper trof moves through central Canada today. With the flat ridge, Canadian high pressure will slip some cooler air south of the border for temperatures more in the 80s instead of 90s. As the trough moving across Canada digs toward the Great Lakes, the upper ridge shifts slightly westward as it rebounds.
By Monday, the mid level ridge will be replaced by a mid level trough. Metzger The extended range looks interesting as a mid level trough will move through the region.
A weak trough over Central Texas will provide slightly higher chances across East Texas, including KTYR, KGGG, and KLFK. /Today through Monday/ An upper ridge remains firmly centered over the Southwest CONUS placing the Southern Plains under northerly flow aloft.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 70 90 69 / 70 30 30 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 68 88 67 / 20 20 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 86 68 89 67 / 20 20 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 63 86 64 / 10 10 30 10.
523 AM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019 Short term concerns are extent of isolated convection this afternoon and overall development overnight ahead of surface cold front. Looking at water vapor imagery, we see what appears to be a weak short wave dropping southeast over the upper ridge into northwest MN. Various HIRES solutions have northern MN activity dropping south into the northern CWA and weakening/ending early evening before main development along the cold front drops in late tonight to the northern CWA. Cold front drops southeast with likely PoPs dropping south in the afternoon with the front.
There is a decent amount of moisture in the low levels, and not much of an elevated warm layer to inhibit convection, so expect that there will be at least isolated or widely scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening, especially across central and north central Wisconsin. Any widely scattered thunderstorms that form should end by mid evening, with another chance of thunderstorms across north central Wisconsin towards morning ahead of an upper trough and weak surface cold front.
1201 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019 This morning, an upper level ridge has continued to persist over the Four Corners region, once again keeping our region in a northwest flow pattern. At the surface, high pressure is centered over the midwest with our region sitting on the southern fringe of the high pressure, resulting in light winds and clear skies across the area. A drier air mass will continue to usher in today as the aforementioned high pressure builds into Missouri. With high pressure and mostly sunny skies persisting into Monday, dry and warm conditions are expected to continue. Slightly more sunshine than Sunday and light southwesterly winds will provide the basis for high temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees across the area with heat indices in the low 90s.
Check density altitude as temperatures warm in the 90s - even warmer later this week. /issued 210 AM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019/ Upper level ridging continues to drift westward and is progged to continue to do so the next 24-36 hours when it pulls up over northern Arizona/southern Utah. This will result in a continuation of northerly upper flow over the southern High Plains which should keep mountain convection in New Mexico from getting too far off the high terrain.
This morning's UA analysis showed a 5950 meter upper high centered over central Colorado with the overall upper level ridge covering the western states into the Plains. Southwest and central Kansas will have one more quiet night as high pressure aloft and at the surface dominate the region. For now will keep the highest chance pops from Wakeeney to Syracuse.
318 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019 High pressure will provide ideal late summer weather to the region through Monday night with mainly clear skies and light winds.
Given this, and the expected gradual drop in dewpoint temperatures, have opted to make adjustments to the temperature forecast to allow for slightly warmer conditions. Day time highs will reach into the low to mid 90s this afternoon. Some areas like the canyon floor may reach the high 90s. Monday will be warmer with highs reaching mid to upper 90s, with the canyon floor likely to reach the low triple digits again. Going into Monday night the upper level high will move west a bit with northwest flow returning.
343 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019 The upper-level ridge over the Southwest will move rather little through the forecast period.
839 AM PDT Sun Aug 4 2019 High pressure over the Southwest will continue hot days inland through Monday.
Today looks to be a near repeat of yesterday but a few degrees warmer and little more humid. The surface and 850 mb ridges finally begin to shift east by late in the day allowing flow to become more west to southwest.
Fairly quiet morning across the region as we sit between a region of high pressure centered over CO and a frontal boundary descending from MT into WY. With the approach of next system, skies will gradually get more cloudy though that is not expecting to deter daytime highs today reaching into the upper 80s and low 90s over the high plains with low to mid 80s over the mountains. Overnight low will be from the low 50s to low 60s.
1151 AM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019 Not much change seen over the last couple days with the large scale flow still consisting of a high pressure dome centered over NW in control of the western CONUS with a series impulses dropping out of the western Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. Precip chances return Monday/Monday night in association with a cold front moving through.
236 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019 High pressure will build in from the west overnight and will shift off to the southeast on Monday.
Southern Indiana and central Kentucky remain in front of a large upper ridge that arches over the western and Plain states. Updated at 301 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019 The general pattern shows an upper ridge over the Rockies and Plains with troughing over the eastern United States, resulting in northwest flow from the Upper Plains to the Ohio Valley. Will need to keep an eye out for disturbances riding over the ridge and into our region for possible thunderstorm chances.
After midnight there are some hints that at least a shower mention is warranted from around McCook to Burlington where the leading edge of an upper trough and some mid level moisture produce some light qpf.
The other boundary to focus storms on (later tonight) would be the cold front approaching from North Dakota. While it's tough to discern individual mid-level s/ws within the monsoonal flow moisture rounding the top of the upper level ridge off to the west, there are a couple of upper level speed maxima analyzed in the water vapor imagery which may serve to help generate isolated to scattered coverage showers and thunderstorms tonight. With a short-lived period of high pressure over the region, dry weather conditions should then persist for the rest of Monday and most of Monday night.
/issued 444 AM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): Mid-level ridging over the southwest United States and northwest Texas will continue to provide subsidence across much of the area. However, weak mid-level energy rotating around 500 mb ridge should pass over the eastern portions of Deep South Texas this afternoon.