Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High temperatures for today are expected to be in the mid-teens along the Highway-2 corridor, with temperatures approaching 20 degrees from Fosston eastward due to the trees. High temperatures along the Canadian border will be in the high single digits. Cloud cover will increase through the morning from the west and south, then decrease into the evening as high pressure begins to build in. As high pressure and cold Arctic air move in through the day, cold air advection and cloud cover will prevent temps from rising much, especially in the southern valley where cloud cover will persist. Even as windy conditions diminish and high pressure moves in overnight, radiational cooling will likely continue to aid falling temps.
A cold front will move southwest across Oklahoma/north Texas tonight, shifting winds to N/NE by sunrise tomorrow. A stronger wind shift/cold front will enter northern Oklahoma after 03Z and will progress southward through all terminals overnight.
Strong and deep omega is noted over the region between 06- 09Z enhancing the fronto-genetic forcing along a cold frontal boundary. Besides the storms, low-level jet will produce windy conditions over the higher elevations of the Smoky Mountains, so will issue a wind advisory there between 05-15Z Friday. Much cooler air will be the rule.
Temperatures running between 3-6 degrees warmer than yesterday which puts temperatures in-line with todays forecast.
1018 AM MST Thu Mar 9 2017 Updated temperatures through Friday by raising max temperatures with a trend upwards today and Friday a little above the warmer MET guidance. Not convinced this is possible, but left a few pixels of very light snow over the highest peaks of Colorado's northernmost range.
1237 PM EST Thu Mar 9 2017 Cold front crosses tonight. High pressure to the south is providing a sunny and warm day, although it will continue to be breezy through this afternoon. A weak low will cross the Ohio River Valley and Central Appalachians tonight, dragging a cold front through. Went with a dusting across generally the northern third of the CWA, with up to an inch along the ridges of the northern mountains. In the wake of the cold front, expecting some gusty winds again on Friday afternoon, especially along the ridges of the mountains.
417 PM EST Thu Mar 9 2017 Cold front crosses tonight. High pressure to the south is providing a sunny and warm day, although it will continue to be breezy through this afternoon. A weak low will cross the Ohio River Valley and Central Appalachians tonight, dragging a cold front through. Went with a dusting across generally the northern third of the CWA, with up to an inch along the ridges of the northern mountains. In the wake of the cold front, expecting some gusty winds again on Friday afternoon, especially along the ridges of the mountains. Much colder air settles in this period as strong Canadian high pressure noses southward over the area.
1024 AM MST Thu Mar 9 2017 Updated temperatures through Friday by raising max temperatures with a trend upwards today and Friday a little above the warmer MET guidance. Not convinced this is possible, but left a few pixels of very light snow over the highest peaks of Colorado's northernmost range.
Otherwise, southerly winds will veer to the southwest overnight, and veer further to the east-northeast towards the end of the TAF cycle thanks to a cold front and the associated precipitation. Otherwise, the forecast is on track with showers and clouds increasing through the reminder of the day ahead of the next approaching cold front. /issued 505 AM CST Thu Mar 9 2017/ Warm frontal boundary has lifted just north of area, ahead of schedule.
Dry air and subsidence will result in a quiet period and expansive high pressure over south central Canada expands into the upper Midwest. Despite the expected sunshine on Friday, daytime temperatures are only expected to climb back into the low to mid 20s, which will be 15 to 20 degrees below the normal for March 10th. Fortunately, the low level winds will remain offshore during this period.
A spring like day will continue with sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 70s.
1042 AM CST Thu Mar 9 2017 Short-term model guidance continues to show thunderstorms developing along the outflow from the morning convection across southeast Kansas and along a cold front that is forecast to move into northeast Oklahoma late this afternoon. A cold front will be moving through with the storms. It will be cooler on Friday behind the boundary although with gusty northeast winds, increasing the fire danger yet again.
This will also help to dry out conditions and bring RH down into the lower teens. Winds will remain gusty at times over the higher terrain and with decent mixing by midday should see them increase across the plains as well. For tonight winds will quickly diminish across the plains but will remain gusty at times over the higher terrain. On Friday, we expect above normal temperatures in most areas but cooler boundary layer air will likely hold over the eastern plains through the day. Given that, in combination with potential Denver cyclone and mountain wave enhanced clouds, will adjust temps downward a few degrees in the lower elevations north and northeast of Denver.
1222 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017 A cold front will sag south into northern Nebraska this evening, then continue south and stall late tonight across northern Colorado and Kansas. Cooler, but dry conditions return to north central Nebraska on Friday. High temperatures Friday range from the low 50s across southwest Nebraska and the eastern Panhandle to the low 30s and upper 20s across north central Nebraska.
The bulk of the thicker clouds extended from southern Sonora Mexico eastward into the Texas Big Bend region, and ahead of a weak upper trough over Baja California.
243 PM EST Thu Mar 9 2017 Weak high pressure will build over the area tonight.
1129 AM EST Thu Mar 9 2017 Low pressure will remain over Quebec through Friday as high pressure approaching from Western Canada pushes colder air across the region.
654 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016 NORTH AND NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL SURGE ARRIVES WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT PREVAILING THEREAFTER. /ISSUED 454 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/ THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON FEATURES A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHEAST. AND THE NEXT UPPER LOW CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS. A BRIEF DRIER AND WARMER MIDWEEK STRETCH. AND THE COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS TEMPERATURES THERE HAVE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF DROPPING TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INITIATE ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE COOLER SURFACE AIRMASS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
Britt There remains the potential for a few severe thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon and early this evening along and south of a warm front that lies from west northwest to east southeast across the area.
926 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 424 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/ LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEP 1001MB LOW OVER MISSOURI WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA TO CENTRAL TEXAS COAST.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN MONTANA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST IDAHO THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
1000 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY FOR FAIR WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND FOR SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
1054 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY SPINNING THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AS RAINFALL HAS BEEN CUT OFF THROUGH MOST OF NORTHWEST IA AND THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. THOUGH DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD/FORCING WEAKENS/AND DRIER AIR IS PULLED SOUTHWARD. ON SUNDAY THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA. WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST IOWA DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. AND LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT LEADING TOWARDS CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
1224 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICT SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE GYRES OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. WITH UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS ARE BENEATH THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF DEEP MIDDLE AND UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. LATEST IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH LATEST AVAILABLE LAND AND MARINE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 900 PM DETAIL A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI. SURFACE RIDGING IS PARKED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. COMBINATION OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDDLE SOUTH. WITH SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL ALLOW FOR A SURGE IN THE BREEZE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
/ISSUED 323 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/ DRY AIR SPREADING INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS - LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S TO MID 70S. COASTAL TROUGHING ALONG THE LOWER COAST EXTENDING UP INTO SETX THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS STORMS.
1141 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016 SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS 1004MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST CORNER OF IA. BRISK EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH COMBINED WITH THE RAIN/COOLER TEMPERATURES WAS PRODUCING A RATHER RAW DAY. BUT THEN MODELS SHOW THE MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ROTATE THROUGH SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL BY AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PRODUCES A RESURGENCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR. SHOWERS DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH PULLS EAST.
WITH SNOW CHANGING BACK TO RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE. NOT GETTING A WHOLE LOT OF ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES FROM AREA METARS ARE ABOVE FREEZING. LATEST WYDOT ROAD TEMPERATURES STILL WELL ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO THE LOW POP FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD.
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS EVENING NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE DIURNALLY WITH SUNSET. THE NORTHERN BRANCH H500 HIGH REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE THE H500 UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA REGION. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL EVENTUALLY KICK OUT ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE REMNANTS OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH THE H500 RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S WITH SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH.
1239 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES UP THE OHIO VALLEY.
701 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016 SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER MID-AMERICA WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
639 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016 INCREASED SKY COVER THIS EVENING AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD AROUND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER COLORADO AND NEBRASKA. NORTHWEST WINDS OUT OF A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA HAS SHIELDED MOST OF THE CWA FROM PRECIPITATION.
DESPITE THE STRONG SFC-BASED INSTABILITY IN PLACE AFTER TEMPS RECOVERED WELL INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S WITHIN THE HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A BROAD SLUG OF DRY AIR WRAPPING N AND E ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AROUND THE CLOSED LOW OVER SW NE/NW KS. WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP LYR FORCING THIS FAR S OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE SHORT TERM PROGS AND THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE NOT VERY BULLISH AT ALL WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR/E OF THE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FROPA AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTHEAST AT MOST TAF SITES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AN EAST/WEST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO PROMOTE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
753 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT.
WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 64 79 63 78 / 80 60 40 40 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 63 79 63 77 / 80 70 50 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 63 79 63 77 / 80 60 40 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 60 77 59 76 / 90 70 60 20.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN SO MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND NOCTURNAL INVERSIONS. A LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE OF THE LARGER LOW.
648 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016 SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS 1004MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST CORNER OF IA. BRISK EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH COMBINED WITH THE RAIN/COOLER TEMPERATURES WAS PRODUCING A RATHER RAW DAY. BUT THEN MODELS SHOW THE MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ROTATE THROUGH SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL BY AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PRODUCES A RESURGENCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR. SHOWERS DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH PULLS EAST.
RAIN/SNOW LINE LOOKS TO BE AROUND 5000 FEET AGL AS OBSERVATIONS SITES ON THE PLAINS ARE A BIT WARMER. WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME WEAK ASCENT FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE LIGHT SNOW A BIT OVER THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH MID MORNING ON SUNDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER KANSAS AND NEBRASKA CONTINUES TO PUSH IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TOMORROW.
814 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
1243 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
628 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 227 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/ THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A WARM FRONT WAS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AND THROUGH NORTHWEST ALABAMA TO ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINT TEMPS WERE INCREASING TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ALSO AS OF 19Z.
The lowest forecast visibilities are across NW AR where periodic IFR conditions are possible through early Sun morning.
937 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES UP THE OHIO VALLEY.
1126 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016 THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RELUCTANTLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW WILL ACT ON AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL OFF A FEW DEGREES FROM THE HIGHS TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FROPA AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTHEAST AT MOST TAF SITES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. /ISSUED 429 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/ISOL STORMS WERE WORKING NORTH OF I-70 ALONG A SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT. MAIN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL FINALLY OPEN/SHEAR EAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
721 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
953 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST SUNDAY.
WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION.
801 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OHIO OVERNIGHT.
631 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016 THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RELUCTANTLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW WILL ACT ON AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL OFF A FEW DEGREES FROM THE HIGHS TODAY.
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK ACRS THE I-4 CORRIDOR WILL KEEP CENTRAL FL UNDER A SUBSIDING AIRMASS WITH LIMITED LOW LVL MOISTURE. 25" RANGE AN H80-H60 SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD. GIVEN THE LOW PWAT AIR AND MID LVL SUBSIDENCE.
/ISSUED 454 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/ THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON FEATURES A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHEAST. AND THE NEXT UPPER LOW CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS. A BRIEF DRIER AND WARMER MIDWEEK STRETCH. AND THE COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS TEMPERATURES THERE HAVE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF DROPPING TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INITIATE ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE COOLER SURFACE AIRMASS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
These storms have initiated in a weakly convergent area along a surface cold frontal boundary. Otherwise expect sky cover to continue clearing from west to east as drier airmass behind the cold front spreads across the area and main area of low pressure over the central Plains pushes eastward toward the Ohio Valley. Still looks like we will have temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees cooler on Sunday.
CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND DRIER AIR BEGIN TO SETTLE IN EAST OF THE DIVIDE FOR TOMORROW.
654 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016 Latest water vapor satellite imagery indicating upper level trough over the Great Lakes Region and upper level ridge over the eastern Rocky Mountains. Latest 08z surface analysis indicates weak cold front extending from near Lake Superior into central Iowa and high pressure over southwest Minnesota and Dakotas. 00z GFS/NAM/ECMWF show subtle differences on strength and placement of moisture transport/convergence in association with weak impulse overtopping upper level ridge.
A disturbance embedded within the main low pressure system over the ne pac will race across n central oregon this morning and generate isold tsra that is forecast to move north into south central Washington. Meanwhile the low pressure system over the ne pac remains nearly stationary and should spin disturbances across our region today with another area of tsra expected to develop over central oregon/john day highlands this aftn so much of the two state area could experience some convection today.
950 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2016 Below average temperatures continue into mid-week as a low pressure system moves across the Pacific Northwest.
712 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the western U. and a broad trough over central Canada into the Great Lakes and a broad 500 mb ridge over the southern U. The ridge builds into the northern plains and Canadian prairies this forecast period with a trough digging into the ern U. Nam does show some qpf moving across the far western cwa late tonight, but it is the only model to do so and is trying to break out pcpn in a ridge. Southerly winds off Lake Michigan will help keep temps a bit cooler over the east but temps will still be in the 80s.
706 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 An upper level disturbance and cold front will bring scattered showers and a few gusty thunderstorms on Monday.
Nevertheless, there will remain plenty off moisture in place to spark off tstm activity later in the day as the atmosphere will be sufficiently unstable as our afternoon highs will reach into the low to mid 90s.
(prev disc) High pressure ridge axis to our north will produce an easterly wind flow.
1100 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 Shower and thunderstorm chances should continue through this evening with the approach and passage of a cold front. High pressure should bring dry and warm weather through much of the rest of the week. Additional thunderstorms are possible with the approach of a cold front, though with upper support lacking and warming mid levels the amount of redevelopment is in question.
1237 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 A strong cold front will approach from the northwest today and will cross the area tonight. High pressure will follow with a drier and cooler air mass Tuesday.
The sounding this morning depicts signs of the building ridge and increasing subsidence. Despite the high pressure there is plenty of instability with mixed layer CAPE at 2350 J/KG so scattered showers and storms are possible today. /issued 439 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016/ Latest surface analysis continue to show a broad ridge over northeast Gulf of Mexico and southeast CONUS and still a 2mb change was noted from upper Texas coast to Florida panhandle. 18 The upper level pattern will remain steady through Tuesday with some amplification of the ridge axis over the upper plains. Broad rotation around the upper high will tap the dry air over the west Atlantic and Florida Peninsula.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 73 95 73 / 30 20 40 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 71 91 71 / 20 20 40 30 Oak Ridge, TN 92 71 92 71 / 20 30 40 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 91 68 89 67 / 30 30 40 30.
The water vapor imagery reveals that the upper ridge center has begun to drift back W from Nrn MS. The slow wwd retreat of the ridge center will result in a deep Serly flow continuing through the afternoon over the region.
Temps are running a few degrees warmer than yesterday with current obs reading upper 80s across the TN Valley. The upper-level ridge will continue to build into the southeast today, placing the TN Valley on the eastern edge. Subsidence is not strong enough to keep out the cloud cover or chance of rain but will warm up temps into the lower 90s. A ridge is currently building across the Southeast and into the plains. Meanwhile, the polar jet and mean troughing remains well to the north close to the Great Lakes and Pacific Northwest regions.
Since the low is nearly stationary, these waves should follow a trajectory over western Oregon and Washington. Southwest flow aloft will continue over the area through the period as an upper low resides near the Pacific Northwest coast. Those areas will be close enough to the upper low as several short waves rotate around the periphery of the low, resulting in isolated mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Breezy southwest winds will develop each afternoon in Southeast Oregon and the higher terrain of Southwest Idaho and diminish each evening, otherwise winds will be light.
Cold front crosses Tuesday morning. Upper level high pressure dominates for the remainder of work week with hotter afternoon temperatures. Cold front in the Ohio River vicinity at the start of the period.
1204 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the Atlantic today will diminish Tuesday ahead of a weakening cold front.