Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1200 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND DRIFT EAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
339 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A WEAK WARMING TREND THROUGH MID-WEEK.
FAIR WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS WILL BE ENHANCED BY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.
1230 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH TODAY AND EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE THIS WEEKEND. FCST ON TRACK WITH TEMPS CLIMBING THROUGH THE LOW/MID 50S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S INLAND.
304 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING ONTO THE OREGON COAST.
Snow and Blowing Snow and Rapid Freezing of Roads late. A large low pressure system along the Pacific Northwest coast has brought moderate to heavy snow showers this morning and afternoon through northwest and west-central Montana this morning and afternoon, as well as portions of north-central Idaho. A Canadian cold front has been dropping southward, resulting in several inches of snow reported for northwest Montana and strong and cold, gusty winds. As the cold front continues to move down the northern Rockies, snow showers will also push southward and cold air with strong winds will take its place.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN SKY COVER WED INTO WED NIGHT AND NOTABLY WARMER OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS BY WED NIGHT/THURS MORNING. /DL/ GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PORTRAY A COMPLEX SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE CONUS THAT WILL FEATURE A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO TREND STRONGER WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND LESS AGGRESSIVE AND PHASED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. BUT THAT APPEARS A "LITTLE" LESS CERTAIN NOW GIVEN LESS BAROCLINITY AND GREATER RIDGING.
306 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND GULF INFLOW HAS RAPIDLY INCREASED INTO CENTRAL TX TODAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH SPINNING OVER DESERT SW WILL ADDITIONAL PICK UP MOISTURE FROM T. STG BUT VERY SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT WILL BE QUASI STNRY AS BOUNDARY RESTS UNDER DEEP SW FLOW. DEEPENING OF THE UPPER LOW LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUGGEST RAINFALL MAY ALSO INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND. A REX BLOCK IS CREATING THIS SLOW MOVG UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT WITH ONLY THE ECMWF AS A POSSIBLE FASTER MOVG OUTLIER INCLUDING AN EARLIER ONSET OF RAIN.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND WERE GETTING CLOSE TO THE HIGHS ALREADY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING IN. THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IS THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. NAM BUFFER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WEAK DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT DEVELOPING BY 6Z WEDNESDAY. EVEN A FEW CAM SOLUTIONS ARE NOW PICKING UP ON THE IDEA OF A LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREA OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU. WILL MENTION FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER AND THE PRAIRIE COTEAU. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY A NOTICEABLE SHIFT IN THE WINDS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS.
RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN VFR/SKC CONDITIONS WITH SE-S SFC WINDS AROUND 5KTS THRU 25/18Z.
1032 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2015 TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND WERE GETTING CLOSE TO THE HIGHS ALREADY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING IN. THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IS THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. NAM BUFFER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WEAK DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT DEVELOPING BY 6Z WEDNESDAY. EVEN A FEW CAM SOLUTIONS ARE NOW PICKING UP ON THE IDEA OF A LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREA OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU. WILL MENTION FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER AND THE PRAIRIE COTEAU. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY A NOTICEABLE SHIFT IN THE WINDS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NW AS A RIDGE APPROACHES THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BECOMING BREEZY AT TIMES ALONG THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE.
A DEEPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CANADA DOWN TO EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. THE CENTER OF A STRONG 1030 MB PLUS ANTICYCLONE IS PARKED OVER NEAR THE OUTER BANKS.
Morning update: satellite shows a well-wound area of low pressure pin-wheeling down the Pacific Northwest coast. Yet across the Palouse into the L-C Valley temperatures are in the mid-30s with dewpoints around freezing. Light precipitation is expected to continue through the remainder of the morning across from the lower Columbia Basin, east into the Palouse/L-C Valley and central Panhandle, and north across the Spokane/C'dA area into the northern mountains. Cote' 18Z TAFS: Low pressure will push into Oregon this afternoon.
213 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
1217 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
THE STRATUS WILL LINGER OVER MOST OF OK THROUGH TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH STRATUS/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING AGAIN, AND SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY THANKSGIVING MORNING. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THEIR PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT A BIT DURING THE DAY THU, WITH IT NOW ONLY NEARING THE I44 BY FRI 00Z.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION AND LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S WEST TO THE UPPER 30S EAST. UPPER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO SOME PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.
108 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOR VFR CONDITIONS. RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN VFR/SKC CONDITIONS WITH SE-S SFC WINDS AROUND 5KTS THRU 25/18Z.
1151 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2015 MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. LOWER MVFR DECK SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE MORNING. SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADVECTION FOG NEAR GALVESTON BUT RICHER DEWPOINTS MAY NOT GET INTO THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z WITH WARMER CONDITIONS AND VEERING WINDS DURING THE LATE MORNING HAMPERING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
353 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH TONIGHT.
253 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 SURFACE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 19Z FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE STILL WELL IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. EASTERN KENTUCKY STILL IN THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SEE ANOTHER NIGHT OF COLD TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO LOWER 20S IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AND AROUND 30 ELSEWHERE. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT A BIT FURTHER EAST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING STRONG TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH MORE INSULATION AS SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS ARE EXPECTED.
THE WELL-DEFINED COLD CORE UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST THIS MORNING WILL TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE HOLD THIS LOW OVER THE BASIN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THEN INCREASE RAPIDLY IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW WORKS INTO WESTERN UTAH. MUCH COLDER AIR IN THE CORE OF THE LOW WILL TURN ANY PRECIP-TYPE QUICKLY FROM RAIN TO SNOW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
551 AM EST TUE MAR 1 2016 VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE PATTERN. HOWEVER, THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT DAY, AHEAD OF A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA TOMORROW. THERE ARE LOW LEVEL CLOUD CONVERGENCE BANDS AND THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT. MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF WEAK AND MAINLY DRY FRONTS WILL APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA BUT BECOME DIFFUSE AS THEY PASS ACROSS.
532 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016 IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. ATTENTION LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON THEN TURNS TO THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING SOME DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS RANGING IN THE 40S OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY RETIRE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTER INTO THE REGION.
618 AM EST TUE MAR 1 2016 WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH LOW PRESSURE STARTING LATE TUESDAY BEFORE A CHANGE TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH STRONG SW FLOW AND PWAT VALUES ON THE HIGH SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY. HAVE HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR A FEW OF THE RIDGE COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IN 40+ KNOT GUSTS IS HIGHEST BASED ON PATH OF LLJ. CHARACTERISTICS OF EVENT LEAN MORE TOWARDS A RIDGE-BASED AS OPPOSED TO AREAWIDE ADVISORY WINDS BASED ON LOCAL STUDY. BUT UP TO AN INCH IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. CL STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAYBE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN THE COUNTIES NORTH OF I-80 AND IN THE RIDGES.
950 AM EST TUE MAR 1 2016 BROAD HI PRES RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE RIO GRAND VALLEY REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE FL PENINSULA. FRONTAL TROF APPROACHING THE MS VALLEY WILL RIDE UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS THRU THE DAY. FAVORABLE BOATING CONDS CONTINUE AS A BROAD RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION GENERATES A LIGHT TO GENTLE SRLY BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC.
518 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016 The 30+ degree cooler temperatures we'll see today will be short- lived as that cooler air mass quickly shifts east of the region. But these warmer temperatures will occur with gusty winds too and as a result there will likely be high fire danger.
1007 AM EST TUE MAR 1 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR SOUTH AND THE LOW TO THE NORTH RESULTING IN A BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO MID-UPPER 70S IN THE CSRA AND SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL OFFSET THE COLD ADVECTION A BIT BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER COMPARED TO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
COLD FRONT SWEEPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS MORNING STILL FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES JUST AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES.
A COLD FRONT IS ON APPROACH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IFR/MVFR/VFR AREAWIDE AND SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS TO OUR NORTH AT THIS TIME. COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASED DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. BEST DYNAMICS AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE TROUGH. SO THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS SE OK IN THE SHORT-TERM AND SRN AR/NRN LA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE TO THE EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES MAY FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE TERRAIN OF SE OK/SW AR.
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS TODAY. SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO WRN WI BY 12Z WED.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DENSE FOG IN NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING ALONG RIDGE AXIS. WILL WE HAVE FOG NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS TO BE OVER AREA TONIGHT AND THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FOG 09-13Z. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FEET.
919 AM EST TUE MAR 1 2016 SKIES AROUND THE KEYS ARE PARTLY CLOUDY MAINLY DUE TO THE HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE ENGULFS THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS MORNING. THE RESULT OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT WILL BE A WEAK PRESSURE FIELD AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THE RIDGE OUT TO SEA.
LIGHT S TO SW WINDS AND GENTLE SEAS TODAY WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BRING SOME SNOW TO THE GREAT BASIN TO START THE WORK WEEK.
441 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUITE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING TO OUR NORTH AS IS SURFACE COLD FRONT DRIVING ACROSS THE CWFA.
Starting this evening, MVFR ceilings will overspread all terminals ahead of an approaching cold front.
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASED DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. BEST DYNAMICS AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE TROUGH. SO THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS SE OK IN THE SHORT-TERM AND SRN AR/NRN LA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE TO THE EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES MAY FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE TERRAIN OF SE OK/SW AR.
HAVE HAD A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE AS OF 3 AM MST. MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN TOO DRY TO REALIZE THESE CHANCES AND WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MARKED SOLELY BY A PASSING LOW CLOUD SHIELD INSTEAD. WILL SEE A BRIEF CLEARING AND TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT BEFORE A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING TONIGHT. EXPECT COLD FRONT TO ENTER SE OREGON IN THE LATE EVENING AND EXIT SW IDAHO IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
Winds will average 15 to 25 mph behind the front through most of the day, and temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler today behind the front. Tonight, temperatures will be much cooler, dropping into the upper 30s to lower 40s, with clear skies and light winds.
EXPECT A COOLER DAY TODAY FROM LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT. MOISTURE CAUGHT UNDER THE RIDGE. WITH GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH ABOVE TIMBERLINE AND EXPOSED RIDGES OF THE FOOTHILLS. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAIN PEAKS WILL DISSIPATE WITH CONTINUED DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE.
542 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016 TROUGH LOCATED NEAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK. WINDS TURN LIGHT AND GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST. WITH DEVELOPING EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND LINGERING SNOW PACK. MODELS SHOW THE WAVE SUFFERS FROM SATURATION ISSUES IN THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
646 AM EST TUE MAR 1 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL DAY ACROSS THE AREA. TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN. SFC COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA WITH CAA CONTINUING THROUGH MID MORNING. TEMPS ACROSS CNRTL NY RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH READINGS IN NE PA STILL IN THE LOWER 30S.
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE AREA LATER TODAY. SOME DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. BUT A STRONG COOL DOWN WILL NOT BE SEEN AS UPPER TROUGH WHICH WAS SUPPOSED TO ALLOW THE COOLER AIR TO COME DOWN IS FORECAST TO BE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST AND NORTHERLY FETCH IS WEAK. GOING A BIT WARMER WEDNESDAY THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF I- 37 WILL ONLY SEE 70S. MODERATE SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AND FRONT.
348 AM MST TUE MAR 1 2016 WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND BRING TIMES OF PRECIP TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. FAVORED AREAS IN NW FLOW CONTINUES TO BE THE NRN MTNS AND FLAT TOPS WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING AN END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLEARING.
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD WEAKLY AT THE SURFACE, BUT WITH FLOW THIS LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REACH AROUND 80 THIS AFTERNOON, A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE COULD STILL DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND INTO THE EVERGLADES.
414 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016 TROUGH LOCATED NEAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK. WINDS TURN LIGHT AND GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST. WITH DEVELOPING EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND LINGERING SNOW PACK. MODELS SHOW THE WAVE SUFFERS FROM SATURATION ISSUES IN THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 70 36 48 32 / 90 90 10 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 36 44 29 / 80 90 10 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 68 35 45 31 / 80 80 10 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 66 35 40 26 / 60 90 20 0 TN.
Wind gusts to 40 mph are possible as a cold front moves across the region during Wednesday morning.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WILL PUSH INTO THE DELTA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN THE SOUTH. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING AND SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S EAST TO UPPER 40S WEST.
439 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016 12Z TAF issuance A cold front currently entering the northern Permian Basin will bring gusty winds to KMAF this morning. /issued 345 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016/ Not many changes to the current forecast, as WV imagery shows a continuing pattern of NW flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico as an upper trough moves thru the Central Plains. This will change fairly quickly as a cold front to the northwest and north of the dryline begins scouring moisture south and east over the next few hours, w/the hires NAM putting fropa at KMAF at around 11Z. On Wednesday, however, a secondary trough will dive out of the nrn Rockies, spawning a leeside trough along the Front Range and down into the Texas Panhandle.
AND AOA 10 TO 12 KNOTS SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS.
06 EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED THE FL PENINSULA ATTM MAINTAINING AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WAS NOTED EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID- MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO ANOTHER LOW OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY. AND THE GRADIENT SETTING UP BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE HIGH TO OUR EAST WAS ALLOWING SRLY WINDS TO STAY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING THUS KEEPING FOG AT BAY FOR THE TIME BEING. PULLING THE ASSOCIATED LOW/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE EXPECT A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER DRIER WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS PAST AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP ONCE AGAIN.
THERE WAS SOME CONCERN IN PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST POPS AS THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW STORMS WILL EVOLVE. THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION IS THE NMM WHICH ALLOWS CONVECTION BOTH FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY FEEDING INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATED CAPE AND VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INTO WESTERN KS. THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL LOWS PLODDING THROUGH THE PATTERN WITH ONE OVER THE CAROLINAS. A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS PARKED OVER MUCH OF THE GULF PROVIDING DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ALOFT. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH VERY WEAK PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
The slow moving upper level low is now centered over the Carolinas. Meanwhile, ridging will start to build across the lower Ohio Valley from the southwest. Guidance does suggest some storms will pop up across east central Kentucky nearer to the upper level low this afternoon. With the low clouds clearing out and ridging building aloft, temperatures will be much warmer today than they have over the past few days. Highs will be in the mid 80s today and tomorrow with lows tonight in the low 60s.
A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN TO SEND MOISTURE NORTH INTO UTAH ON FRIDAY.
157 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 A PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA HAS GENERATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS DISPLAY AN INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS BECAUSE OF THE PATTERN. FOLLOWED THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGHING LINGERING EARLY IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD BUT THE PATTERN BECOMES FLATTER WITH TIME.
423 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 QUIET MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA AND INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY. AS WEAK IMPULSES WITHIN NORTHERLY FLOW ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
303 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015 (Today and tonight) A benign weather pattern will continue across West Central Texas as an upper level ridge dominates. Highs are forecast to be slightly warmer than what we saw yesterday, generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with southeast winds of 10 to 15 mph.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY.
613 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY.
253 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY AND THEN THE REST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
633 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. WHICH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. STILL TIMING THE COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY EVENING. SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
AN INVERTED TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CUBA ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND UP THE EAST COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN IN THE LOW 90S WITH SOME UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST. TO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
Much warmer weather is expected Friday into the weekend as a high pressure ridge returns to the region.