Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 844 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2020/ A cold front is currently on the doorstep of Northeast Arkansas. Low temperatures will be warmer tonight with readings in the upper 40s to mid 50s. A cold front will swing through the area later tonight into early tomorrow morning from the north.
However, with high clouds moving in ahead of the approaching trough, anticipate fog will be limited. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 51 72 49 78 / 0 10 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 50 70 48 75 / 10 10 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 71 49 69 47 75 / 10 10 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 48 67 44 72 / 10 20 0 0 10.
348 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2020 The region remains in northwesterly flow aloft with large ridging across the western CONUS and troughing in the east. High temperatures should mix into the mid to upper 60s in most areas with cooler readings in the lower 60s across western Iowa. Upper level ridging will move overhead by late in the week.
Quiet weather persists across the region with high pressure in place. An upper/mid level ridge will hold over the area through the period.
A deep upper trough is moving across the Great Lakes and it's axis will pass across the cwa during the early afternoon. We'll see the rain diminish as the trough moves east and skies will eventually clear late in the day. As high pressure builds in tonight and winds become light, radiational cooling will help temperatures fall into the lower to mid 30s by Monday morning.
high pressure will remain anchored near Las Vegas, Nevada, while an upper trough sits over the Missouri Valley. Highs on Sunday will be warmer, with 70s to lower 80s across the region. On Tue and upper ridge builds over the area and remains in place through Wed. Thu and into early Fri, the ridge gets flattened over the area as a disturbance moves through the flow aloft. The upper ridge then rebuilds over the area on Fri and then shifts east of the state on Sat as an upper trof moves onto the west coast. VFR conditions with generally light diurnal wind regimes expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24 hours, as upper level ridging builds into the Rockies.
239 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the upper Great Lakes this morning with a ridge over the western U. the 500 mb trough axis is across the upper Great Lakes this morning with the axis moving slowly east to the ewrn seaboard by 12z Mon. High temperatures will rebound into the mid/upper 50s but gusty winds will make it feel a little cooler.
It will be a few degrees cooler Monday, but still running well above average for the first part of October.
A weak cold front looks to push through Monday, with current timing being Monday morning.
However, the passing of the upper level trough will resulting in elevated winds along with the already low relative humidities across much of southeast Wyoming.
Fall like weather will prevail for next few days as a dry cold front pushes through the area this afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today than yesterday due to warm air advection ahead of the cold front. Scattered mid level clouds will develop across the north today due to lift along a short wave trof. No real change in the air mass behind the cold front, with only slightly cooler daytime temperatures on Monday across the north.
High pressure will settle over the region tonight, setting up clear and cold conditions. Back edge of the steadier rains associated with the sharp early season upper level trof overhead, is now pushing east of the IL River. Will see a good progression of this back edge through our eastern counties this morning as the trof shifts east. The cool airmass continues to grip the area tonight as the low level ridge axis settles overhead 06-12z. Widespread lows in the mid 30s, and typical cold spots may approach the freezing mark. The high pressure ridge will sink into the Ohio Valley by Monday afternoon while the next front drops into the Plains. This will signal the beginning of warm advection on developing southwest flow, getting highs back into the low to mid 60s.
Went a couple of degrees warmer than in- house guidance, presuming the dry surface/boundary layer conditions and low level WAA will over-achieve (finish warmer than guidance). Northwest flow aloft starts the out period, however a weak upper ridge slowly transitions over the midwest, allowing for a warming trend and dry conditions.
The high level cloudiness will continue through the day, but should get pushed southward later today and overnight as a 500mb trough swings through. At the surface, a weak surface boundary just west of the Lower Mississippi River Valley will move through later today. No cooler air behind the front and temps should be slightly above normal.
Isolated locations in far northeast SD and west central MN may even see temps fall to freezing. Upper ridging builds in on Sunday with southerly sfc flow ahead of a front that will move through the Dakotas Sunday night.
352 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 A warm front will bring widely scattered showers to NY and PA today into Monday.
Prior discussion below: Tonight through Sunday: An eastern CONUS longwave trough will continue to bring dry weather with seasonable temperatures as we finish up the weekend. For Sunday, the moisture-starved trough will cross the ArkLaMiss region and bring little change in the weather for the forecast area. However with a high pressure driving much of the western half of the state and the atmosphere pattern, we won't see hardly any increase in moisture, leaving us dry with normal like October values for the week.
1056 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2020 Early afternoon analysis showed an upper level trough axis sliding through the forecast area, with associated PV advection leading to some precip. Once the showers exit, guidance suggests at least some clearing takes place across the forecast area as high pressure builds in, and this looks to be supported by upstream satellite imagery. This should set the stage for yet another chilly night with some frost/freezing as temperatures dip in to the upper 20s to mid 30s. For Sunday, high pressure will lead to a sunny and quiet, but cool day across the region.
231 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 An ill defined area of low pressure over the Mid West this morning will eventually work across our forecast area tonight.
Strong high pressure will be north of the region Today, as an inverted trough develops along the coast. Weak area of low pressure is expected to develop in this coastal trough overnight, then lift northeast of the region during the day on Sunday. The chance will extend across the region during the day Sunday, as a boundary associated with the low lifts across area. The tightened pressure gradient between the high and trough will result in gusty winds along the coast this afternoon and evening.
A weak backdoor cold front has brought gusty easterly winds for the central mountain chain this afternoon and slightly cooler temperatures for the eastern plains. Min temps will be warmer than last night with veering wind profiles, higher dewpoints, and weaker inversions. A 591dm H5 high center will drift eastward from AZ while a lee side trough strengthens over eastern NM.
Weak insentropic ascent atop the southward moving cold front and further moistening in roughly the 850-700-mb layer could be enough for slightly more significant convection across our south-central and southeast counties later in the evening and overnight.
Look for cooler conditions for tomorrow as a cold front brings a drop in temperatures to the region. In fact, we will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than this afternoon.
310 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 High pressure will be across the area early today before a weak low and upper disturbance move towards the region. The low and front will cross the area tonight then move away by Monday morning.
A weak cold front arriving late in the mid afternoon into Central TX may generate a few cumulus clouds and a brief rise in N/NE winds up to 10 knots. On Sunday, we do expect a cold front to move into the region during the afternoon. As mentioned above, a cold front will move in, bringing a northerly wind shift during the late afternoon and evening hours. Low temperatures Sunday night will be a little cooler compared to tonight, with lows generally in the 50s.
252 AM MDT Sun Oct 4 2020 Pleasant day on tap for the western slope as high pressure to our west maintains a light westerly flow, dry conditions, mostly sunny skies and mild above seasonal high temperatures. Breezy conditions will occur at times Monday afternoon along with the low relative humidities, resulting in localized critical fire weather conditions in some valleys of northwest Colorado.
This evening through Sunday night The ridge will stay in place across the western CONUS today, with continued northwest flow over Wyoming.
The next batch of clouds is progged to move into far northern Minnesota this afternoon ahead of a mid level trof moving through the Northern Plains. Max temps will be a bit warmer today with more sunshine. The high pressure that's been over the region the past few days will push east tonight as a brisk southwest flow develops ahead of an area of low pressure in south central Canada associated with the aforementioned trof. A push of warm air advection ahead of the front in the morning will lead to warmer max temps, but a vigorous pull of cold air behind the front into the area will offset the max temps from getting too warm. The cold front moves through northwest Wisconsin Monday night with high pressure following behind.
But warm advection sfc to 850 mb will bring warmer temperatures with highs low to mid 60s in E ND and mid to upper 50s east of the Red River.
Despite other areas not being in the Red Flag Warning, all of the low elevations will have very low relative humidities. NBM continued to advertise temps in the low to mid 80s which looked good. The wave will push a dry cold front through the area, which will usher in gusty winds for Monday, mainly over the E. Monday will be cooler with higher humidities. A series of cold fronts will push through during the week and thus we will have fluctuating temperatures from day to day, but all days should remain above seasonal normals.
By late week guidance is still split on what will become of the current Invest 92L and approaching trof from the west.
Showers will finally move out of the our area by about 3Z, but the cloudy conditions will continue overnight as we transition out of a trough and into the approaching ridge from the northwest. The lingering clouds will help keep temperatures a little warmer overnight, but there is still potential for widespread frost Sunday morning in the northeast as the high pressure moves into northern Iowa from central Minnesota and cloud cover diminishes from northeast to southwest tomorrow morning.
Cool lows in the low to mid 40s are expected by around sunrise. Light winds under the high pressure center will produce radiational cooling conditions with overnight lows dropping into the low 30s over the eastern Ozarks and locations farther west seeing lows in the mid to upper 30s. Therefore, widespread frost is looking likely for locations primarily east of Highway 5, while more patchy frost is possible west of Highway 5 out to the Highway 65 corridor.
Still a cold night with temps mostly below the freezing mark except in portions of our far southwestern CWA. Weather related impacts will be minimal tonight into Sunday, and will be limited to widespread sub-freezing temperatures across the region.
358 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 Rain chances will return late today and tonight with the approach and passage of a cold front. Still a wide range of solutions from the latest model data on the timing and impact of a cold front and trough axis that will slowly cross Ohio today. Thus, will keep rain chances focused on late this afternoon across Ohio and then shift the higher PoPs eastward into the evening hours. If the clouds do break up for a time this afternoon, a brief surge of warmer temperatures is possible. Conditions will improve Monday with the trough axis east of the forecast area and increasing subsidence.
High pressure centered over the western North Atlantic reaches west to near Florida. This morning's KKEY RAOB and the most recent VWP scans highlight deep southeasterly breezes across the Florida Keys, driven by the gradient between the high to our northeast and TS Gamma to the west-southwest. If it were not for the expected drying in the lower troposphere, we may have updated to increase rain chances.
Lows will range from the low/mid 40s in northeast and east-central Kansas to around 50 in western portions of the forecast area, where the southerly winds will remain a bit stronger.
/Issued 307 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2020/ Shower activity across southeast Oklahoma has begun to dissipate/shift east with upper trough axis early this morning. Cold front currently located over southeast Oklahoma will continuing pushing south today. Warming trend will develop for the early to middle part of the work week as upper ridge quickly shifts east out of the desert Southwest into the southern Plains.
Unseasonably warm weather returns starting Monday as the ridge over the western CONUS deamplifies and edges east.
A persistent weather pattern will continue through about mid week under a dominating ridge aloft. A weak thermal trough will develop today, with easterly winds picking up for the upper slopes and ridges above 1,500 feet, creating some locally critical fire weather conditions.
A cold front can be seen approaching from the northwest, currently near the Mississippi River. Enjoy another pleasant, rain-free day in the Tennessee Valley! High pressure out of the Plains states will again become reinforced across much of the ern CONUS heading into the evening period, as slightly cooler air out of the north briefly spreads into the area. This large dome of high pressure gradually moving east across the OH Valley/mid Atlantic states will result in tranquil and near seasonal conditions well into Tue, with early morning lows again in the mid/upper 40s and afternoon highs rebounding into the mid/upper 70s, under mostly sunny or clear skies.
704 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 High pressure will be in control today.
808 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 A warm front stretches southwest-northeast across West-Central FL early this morning as deep moisture from Tropical Storm Gamma in the southern Gulf of Mexico (Details in National Hurricane Center advisories) flows into it.
645 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 Low pressure will cross the Ohio Valley today and will push a cold front through the Mid Atlantic with scattered showers in the mountains.
Thin layer of mid/high clouds is traversing ENE across much of the Mid South region into the mid TN Valley this early Sun morning, ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. Little fanfare is xpcted with this frontal passage as another strong dome of high pressure out of the Plains states begins to build to the SE. High pressure out of the Plains states will again become reinforced across much of the ern CONUS heading into the evening period, as slightly cooler air out of the north briefly spreads into the area. This large dome of high pressure gradually moving east across the OH Valley/mid Atlantic states will result in tranquil and near seasonal conditions well into Tue, with early morning lows again in the mid/upper 40s and afternoon highs rebounding into the mid/upper 70s, under mostly sunny or clear skies.
08z WV satellite shows upper ridge over the lower Colorado River basin, cyclonic flow over the eastern two thirds of the CONUS with the latest impulse in this feature located over an OK-WI axis, and consequent northwesterly flow aloft over the Panhandles. At the surface, high pressure is in place extending from MN southwestward to out forecast area in the wake of the aforementioned impulse, with clear skies and very light winds occurring across the CWA as a result. By midday, latest cold front looks to push through the northwestern Panhandles while downslope winds continue across the southeastern two thirds of the CWA.
916 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 Rain chances will return late today and tonight with the approach and passage of a cold front. Low pressure currently on the vicinity of the OH/IN border will lift northeast over the southern Great Lakes over the course of the day. exiting east of the ridges by daybreak. Conditions will improve Monday with the trough axis east of the forecast area and increasing subsidence.
Low pressure over the Wabash Valley early this morning will travel up the Ohio River over the course of the day, pulling a cold front along behind it. We'll keep some clouds and light winds through the evening hours, but as the high approaches we may clouds break up enough and see the winds drop off enough by early Monday morning to support some valley fog. As we move into the start of the new work week, the upper level trough will be exiting across the Northeast while a more quasi-zonal flow settles in aloft. At the surface, a broad area of high pressure will be centered over the OH Valley.
/GG/ Today and Tonight: A broad mid level trough remains locked over the eastern two thirds of the nation this morning with a ridge over the west.
620 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 A warm front will bring widely scattered showers to NY and PA today into Monday.
Upper level analysis places broad ridge over the western continental United States with trough over the Great Lakes into the Mississippi River Valley. For today, flow shifts more westerly as ridge tries to push into our area. This will bring warmer temperatures and quiet weather. For tonight, a cold front and affiliated upper level short wave push into the area late tonight. Cold front continues to push through the area in the morning, with upper level wave also continuing its progression.
The region remains in northwesterly flow aloft with large ridging across the western CONUS and troughing in the east. High temperatures should mix into the mid to upper 60s in most areas with cooler readings in the lower 60s across western Iowa. Upper level ridging will move overhead by late in the week.
507 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 A sharp upper level trough over the midwest will push east through Pennsylvania late Sunday into Sunday night.
The forecast is on track in the near term with a weak cold front just now pushing into northwest portions of the ArkLaMiss region. /EC/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: A broad mid level trough remains locked over the eastern two thirds of the nation this morning with a ridge over the west.
430 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2020 As the mean mid level trof axis pushes east of the area today, the minimal chance of light showers or sprinkles will end, primarily along the I-64 corridor and down in the KY Pennyrile. High pressure builds in tonight.
1016 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 A warm front will bring widely scattered showers to NY and PA today into Monday.
An upper disturbance is expected to move across the Mississippi Valley/ERN CONUS today/tonight, while an upper ridge builds over the SWRN CONUS/CWA Monday.
The rest of Sunday is expected to remain dry, quiet, and unseasonably cool as temps reach into the upper 50s/lower 60s for the high.
A weak cold front is moving through the SJT area early this morning, and the fropa is expected to enter LLano and Burnet county while slowing down after 12Z. While dew points should dry out by the evening, there isn't much to suggest any temperature changes needed in the first period maxes, tonight's lows should be 2- 5 degrees cooler than from this morning with the higher deltas over Central TX. Highs on Monday will still be in the 80s across most of the region and perhaps 1-3 degrees cooler than today's maxes.
1027 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 A stationary front will linger offshore while weak low pressure moves northeast along it into tonight.
After coordination, have issued a frost advisory for most of the area, but have excluded portions near Lake Michigan where clouds are expected to keep temperatures warmer.
Southerly surface return flow will develop across the area today west of the high. South to southwest winds will advect warmer air into the area this afternoon with highs well into the 70s across western Nebraska with upper 60s to lower 70s across central into north central Nebraska. Cooler lower 40s will occur across portions of southwest Nebraska and the panhandle where the boundary layer decouples more. Upper level ridging across the western U.
/issued 247 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2020/ Today will be another nice day across the region as the CWA remains located between a high amplitude ridge aloft to our west and deep upper troughing across the Midwest.
622 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the upper Great Lakes this morning with a ridge over the western U. the 500 mb trough axis is across the upper Great Lakes this morning with the axis moving slowly east to the ewrn seaboard by 12z Mon. Models suggest that the pattern will become more zonal toward the end of the week as troughing from Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes lifts off to the northeast and the western CONUS ridge gives way to a trough moving in from the eastern Pacific. However, as the trough and weak cold front move through Monday night there may be some light showers over the north and especially the east.
TFJ A warm front today will lead to above average temperatures across NE Montana with highs well into the 70s to low 80s. Isolated to widely scattered showers are also possible with a cold frontal passage tonight, but widespread appreciable rainfall is not expected. For the week ahead, large scale upper ridging will prevail across the western U. WIND: Light southeast winds are expected this morning with a warm front. Winds will shift to the west and eventually northwest this evening at 10 to 20 kts with higher gusts as a cold front pushes through the region. Winds will ramp up this afternoon and shift west, and eventually northwest this evening as a cold front approaches. A cold front tonight will drive lower temperatures to be in place for Monday and while gusty winds are expected, humidity recoveries will also be favored.
716 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 A sharp upper level trough over the midwest will push east through Pennsylvania late Sunday into Sunday night.
The ridge over the region is flattening in response to a disturbance passing through British Columbia. Monday will be a little cooler after today's front, but still many degrees above normal. High pressure with dry and warm conditions are expected for most of the rest of the week.
Cooler and Dry. Well, the cold front we've been expecting has arrived. The cold front has moved across much of the Concho Valley and will likely be south of Interstate 10 by sunrise. Cooler air will then help produce highs today much cooler than the last couple days. Although warmer air will begin to return overnight tonight, lows Monday morning will still be slightly cooler than seasonal normals.
The aforementioned fnt wl cont to drop to the SE today, followed by a reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air.
At 500 MB, a broad, deep trough is in place across the eastern half of the CONUS with ridging building across the western CONUS. By 00 UTC Monday, high pressure will be directly overhead at the surface and aloft with light winds. Temperatures will be slightly warmer with highs in the mid to upper 50s but still 10 to 15 degrees below normal for early October. Current forecast is on the high end of guidance. This translates to warmer temps with drier air. High pressure will build into the region through the TAF period bringing VFR conditions to all TAF sites. After high pressure passes to the east, winds will become southerly around 5 knots.
936 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020 Low pressure will cross the Ohio Valley today and will push a cold front through the Mid Atlantic with scattered showers in the mountains.