Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Some areas that have cleared out of the high level cloud cover and may see cooler temperatures than originally forecast.
This activity is associated with an area of low pressure scooting Ewrd across the OH Valley, with a cold front draped to our W loosely oriented along the MS River. Over the course of the short term period, an upper low is predicted to cutoff in the base of a longwave trough across the central Plains and drift southward across west TX. The more progressive northern portion of the trough will spread eastward through the OH and TN Valleys on Thursday and Thursday night, with lift from this feature maintaining a risk for showers and thunderstorms in the warm/moist airmass to the south of a cold front due to arrive late Thursday afternoon or Thursday evening.
A large positively tilted upper trof extending from the Great Lakes region into the southern Plains shifts slowly eastward along with a modest weakening trend, with a broad upper low evolving over Texas on Friday. Have opted to continue with chance to good chance pops for now for Friday, but it is possible that likely pops could be justified given the presence of the albeit weak surface trof/wind shift and will monitor.
Aloft, trough stretching from the Great Lakes southward into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains will shift into the eastern CONUS by late Thursday night. At the surface, a wave of low pressure over southern IL will continue to track northeast, first lifting a warm front north of eastern Kentucky tonight and then pull a cold front through the area Thursday night. A trough of low pressure aloft that will be exiting the area on Friday, should allow scattered showers and a few storms to linger across eastern Kentucky through early Friday evening. Once this trough exits to our east, we can expect a mostly dry weekend around our area.
337 AM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021 One more day of scattered showers and thunderstorms is on the docket for this afternoon and tonight with warmer weather also becoming more prominent. An amplified upper tropospheric pattern is currently in place over the CONUS with longwave ridging centered over the inter- mountain west and the corresponding downstream trough axis cutting through the central Great Lakes to Mid-Mississippi River Valley. Expanded PoPs over the previous forecast given the latest CAM trends, but overall the spatio-temporal coverage of the precipitation will be on the lower side. Highs today creep into the low to mid-80s owing to increasing lower tropospheric WAA off the High Plains. The northern stream jet shifts north of the forecast area Friday morning as the main longwave ridge builds eastward.
112 AM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021 (This evening through Thursday) An upper trough remains over Texas, and little change in the pattern is expected through Thursday. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 60s, with highs on Thursday in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
240 AM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021 A trough of low pressure will shift eastward and allow upper level ridging to spread east in its wake. In the lower levels this will bring warming conditions and a more westerly component to the winds.
An upper level trof was lifting out of the area this afternoon, and will usher in a brief period of ridging aloft. At the surface, an associated low was moving away from the area, and weak high pressure was building in.
333 AM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021 An upper level trof will continue lifting out of the region today. As High pressure shifts into the eastern US, this will also return southerly winds to the region, helping to increase temperatures back above normal this weekend.
331 AM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021 The cluster of convection pushing east into Wayne, Bollinger and Perry counties in southeast Missouri is just east of the upper- level low pressure center, which shows up well on water vapor satellite imagery. Forcing with the upper low along with instability from remnant low-level moisture and cooler mid-level air will create numerous showers and thunderstorms across the region today. The greatest concentration of showers and storms will move eastward across the region ahead of the upper low. With the upper low overhead, winds will be very weak through the column, so storms will generally be pulsy and should generally remain below severe levels.
319 AM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021 A strong upper level ridge will dominate the short term portion of the forecast. The ridge will bring hot and dry conditions to the CWA with highs in the upper 80s, mid 90s today, and into the 90s and century mark on Friday. The low dew points will cause afternoon RH values to drop below 20 percent over a good portion of the CWA today and Friday.
Temperatures will be at or above normal across the interior while onshore flow continues to maintain cooler conditions near the coast.
WV imagery indicates a northerly flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains downstream of ridging aloft pushing off the Pacific into the Intermountain West. Near the surface, high pressure is edging eastward across the Central Plains while lee side troughing is beginning to develop in eastern Colorado. Tranquil conditions are expected to continue today into tonight as amplified ridging aloft shifts slowly east through the Great Basin Region. Look for lows generally down into the 50s(F) tonight with the lower 60s(F) possible in south central Kansas.
On Friday, a closed mid level low will form over Texas and supply another round of showers and thunderstorms for Deep South Texas as pieces of energy rotate around this low.
A strong ridge of high pressure will be across the Rockies today. Despite very weak instability expected this afternoon, subsidence from the upper ridge should be strong enough to keep the area dry and mostly sunny. The ridge begins to flatten out on Friday with some chances of diurnal convection mainly over the northwest. At the same time a thermal ridge will be over the region with the warmest day of the year so far expected. At the start of the period, the CWA is expected to be at the northern periphery of the ridge.
Still some penchant for additional showers to develop within H85 based low level theta-e ridge far southeast into early aftn however better forcing will remain shunted well southeast through srn IN/sw-cntrl OH. Turning hot and dry as upper ridge builds across the OH valley/srn lakes this period. No doubt feedback from ongoing drought conditions across the north/west will play into daily diurnal trends with insolation driving deeper mixing and warmer aftn max temps even though background thermal ridge at H85 is sub 20C. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail later this morning under the influence of high pressure.
306 AM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021 Early this morning an upper ridge was amplifying across the western US with an upper level trough extending from the Great Lakes southwest into AR. Highs Today will reach the lower 80s with mid to upper 80s by Friday afternoon.
High pressure NE of the region will promote SE onshore flow, already raising PWAT levels from the morning Jax sounding to 1. Lows tonight will be warmest at the coast in the low 70s and the upper 60s inland. Behind that trough, high pressure ridging will build into the TN Valley on Friday.
354 AM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021 To start out the morning, an upper-level trough axis is also bisecting the CWA with weak DCVA downstream in the presence of around 750 J/kg of MUCAPE. This cluster should slowly propagate eastward through sunrise, but isolated to scattered showers will remain possible in these areas into afternoon before the upper-level trough finally clears the CWA and large-scale subsidence via mid-level height rises begins to dominate the entire region. Large-scale subsidence will persist through Friday as the upper- level trough continues to depart and upper-level ridging occurs across much of the north-central CONUS favoring dry conditions and mostly clear skies. As a broad low-level ridge also shifts east of the Midwest, low-level flow will back to the southwest, marking the onset of weak WAA into the region.
Overall, still looking at a lot of dry air in the lowest 10 kft, so kept precip chances on the lower end, as widespread measurable rainfall is not expected.
A broad upper level trough will gradually shift into the Pacific Northwest through the weekend and result in a cooling trend through that time and a chance of light rain this weekend. This morning, there was uncertainty in whether last night's marine push of stratus and cooler air would prevent temperatures from rising as much as previously forecast in the Willamette, but these low clouds eroded relatively quickly with the emergence of the sun this morning, and temperature trends thereafter have been towards what we would expect for a day with high temperatures in the low 90s.
A cold front will move into the forecast area during the day on Friday.
Active pattern will persist as upper level troughing stretching from New England southwestward through Texas keeps the local area in southwest flow aloft with a series of embedded disturbances passing through the area firing off scattered to numerous showers and storms as they transit the area.
Mid/upper trough axis centered across the Mississippi River Valley this morning will slowly transition eastward, to along the spine of the Appalachians by Friday. Southerly flow in the lower levels of the atmosphere decreases ever so slightly Friday evening, which helps choke off some of the moisture feed.
A large positively tilted upper trof extending from the Great Lakes region into the Southern Plains shifts slowly eastward along with a modest weakening trend, with a broad upper low evolving over Texas on Friday. Have opted to continue with chance to good chance pops for now for Friday, but it is possible that likely pops could be justified given the presence of the albeit weak surface trof/wind shift so will monitor.
An upper trough was near the area, with an axis from west of Chicago to west of St Louis. The front will move slowly east today as ripples of low pressure ride along it. The upper trough too will move slowly east. PoPs will diminish from west to east during the afternoon hours as the front and upper trough work east. Locally heavy rain will still be possible with the high moisture content of the air ahead of the front. Rain will keep temperatures cooler southeast.
For today through Friday night, the flow aloft will become northeasterly courtesy of an upper level ridge of high pressure over the southwest states and a weak upper level low pressure system downstate. This flow pattern is unfavorable for bringing showers and thunderstorms into the region from the higher terrain of southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico. Slightly warmer temperatures are in store today and Friday.
Mid-level water vapor imagery this morning showed the trough that has been in place over the central CONUS beginning to move eastward, with mid and upper heights expected to increase going into the weekend. At the surface, a quiet start to the forecast period is expected as ridging builds in with the main feature of note being an abnormally warm airmass; especially for areas north of Nebraska and Iowa where records are in jeopardy this weekend. More locally, we are expected to have southerly to southwesterly surface winds that are expected to increase into the weekend along with the high temperatures.
An active moisture channel/frontal zone, preceding a disjointed upstream trough across the MS Valley, will allow rain showers to continue to spread north through ne IN/nw OH/sc MI this afternoon. Dry and warmer elsewhere tomorrow. A pronounced upper level ridge will build over the area Friday into this weekend with dry and increasingly hot conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail later this morning under the influence of high pressure.
This trend will likely continue early tonight, but later tonight better chance for convection to move in from the west and southwest as the mid/upper level trough approaches. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 63 85 63 89 / 80 60 10 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 64 82 60 87 / 80 60 20 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 79 61 82 60 87 / 80 70 20 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 61 80 57 85 / 80 70 30 0 10.
For Thursday and Friday, the upper level ridge in the western CONUS keeps northerly flow over the area.
241 AM MDT Thu Jun 3 2021 Current surface analysis shows low pressure north of the region, with weak high pressure to the west. Upper level analysis shows positively tilted ridge axis over the Great Basin into western portions of the northern Rockies. The warming trend will continue late this week into the early part of the weekend as the ridge slowly moves east across the Rockies and eventually into the Great Plains, gradually flattening out with time.
This evening through Thursday night A robust upper level ridge will be the main driver of weather over the next 36 hours. The relatively warm air mass again keeps temperatures mild overnight, with temperatures 2 to 3 degrees warmer than the previous night.
512 AM MDT Thu Jun 3 2021 Current surface analysis shows low pressure north of the region, with weak high pressure to the west. Upper level analysis shows positively tilted ridge axis over the Great Basin into western portions of the northern Rockies. The warming trend will continue late this week into the early part of the weekend as the ridge slowly moves east across the Rockies and eventually into the Great Plains, gradually flattening out with time.
Upper ridge of high pressure over the western US is providing for mostly clear skies for much of Colorado this morning, with just a smattering of high level clouds.
Currently, a trough axis continues to swing southeast across the Midwest and Southern Plains away from the area. A large upper ridge is centered over the Intermountain West and H5 flow locally is northerly. A rather benign weather pattern is anticipated through the short term with a large upper ridge expected to build into the Plains this weekend. Subsidence continues to increase aloft with the approach of this ridge, as evident in decreasing cirrus from west to east early this morning. Highs today climb into the mid/upper 80s with the H85 thermal ridge still well of to the west. This is largely due to a slowly progressing low over Texas blocking much of the return flow from the Gulf of Mexico.
An upper level ridge of higher heights continues overhead. As the day progresses, a North Pacific Trof approaches from the west and begins to remove mass from the overhead upper level ridge. Tomorrow's highs are only slightly cooler, ranging from the upper 80s to low 90s and with low RH values ranging from the 20s to the low 30s. The ridge flattens out, and with a cross barrier flow setting up across The Rocky Mountain Front, widespread gusty winds are forecast with gusts up to 35 mph, in some areas.
544 AM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021 An upper level trof will continue lifting out of the region today. As High pressure shifts into the eastern US, this will also return southerly winds to the region, helping to increase temperatures back above normal this weekend.
Expect ongoing clearing over the Tri-Cities to expand across a Bad Axe/Clio/Durand line by mid-morning setting up another differential heating boundary (albeit a weaker one) with maxTs in the upper 70s to about 80F near north of the Zilwaukee Bridge. Still some unresolved timing and moisture quality issues Friday regarding the next disturbance spilling into the Great Lakes off the broadening western CONUS ridge. Paltry CVA accompanies the low amplitude trough axis as it crosses southern Lower.
636 AM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021 To start out the morning, an upper-level trough axis is also bisecting the CWA with weak DCVA downstream in the presence of around 750 J/kg of MUCAPE. This cluster should slowly propagate eastward through sunrise, but isolated to scattered showers will remain possible in these areas into afternoon before the upper-level trough finally clears the CWA and large-scale subsidence via mid-level height rises begins to dominate the entire region. Large-scale subsidence will persist through Friday as the upper- level trough continues to depart and upper-level ridging occurs across much of the north-central CONUS favoring dry conditions and mostly clear skies. As a broad low-level ridge also shifts east of the Midwest, low-level flow will back to the southwest, marking the onset of weak WAA into the region.
Along and especially North of I-20, dew points are better in the lower 60s and even a few upper 50s north of I-30 where fog is forming in the cooler and saturated air and will improve quickly with a couple hours of heating. This activity followed closely by a more organized impulse that will do well to light up new convection on the returning warm front during the late morning and early to middle afternoon hours.
Early this morning an upper ridge was amplifying across the western US with an upper level trough extending from the Great Lakes southwest into AR. Highs Today will reach the lower 80s with mid to upper 80s by Friday afternoon.
Surface and upper level ridging will settle in across the region on Friday with southwest surface winds advecting in even warmer temperatures across the area during the afternoon.
For the rest of the day, the ridge extending from the western Atlantic towards the FL peninsula will tighten the pressure gradient, increasing winds mainly for the coastal counties.
416 AM MDT Thu Jun 3 2021 Significant upper-level ridging will continue to evolve across the western and central US through Friday.
Ridging makes way for more zonal flow on Friday cooling temperatures down another few degrees, with continued cooling expected through the weekend.
541 AM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021 A trough of low pressure will shift eastward and allow upper level ridging to spread east in its wake. In the lower levels this will bring warming conditions and a more westerly component to the winds.
/DL/ Today and tonight: A weak front remains stalled across the area this morning, delineating drier conditions with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s across north LA/AR/northwest MS from a more moist airmass with isolated showers, low clouds, and patchy fog extending from central LA through south and east MS. In addition, dewpoints will range from the lower 60s in the north to the lower 70s in the south.
535 AM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021 One more day of scattered showers and thunderstorms is on the docket for this afternoon and tonight with warmer weather also becoming more prominent. An amplified upper tropospheric pattern is currently in place over the CONUS with longwave ridging centered over the inter- mountain west and the corresponding downstream trough axis cutting through the central Great Lakes to Mid-Mississippi River Valley. Expanded PoPs over the previous forecast given the latest CAM trends, but overall the spatio-temporal coverage of the precipitation will be on the lower side. Highs today creep into the low to mid-80s owing to increasing lower tropospheric WAA off the High Plains. The northern stream jet shifts north of the forecast area Friday morning as the main longwave ridge builds eastward.
Early morning WV imagery shows the broad trough that has been influencing the Central Plains for days has finally become more progressive and shift E of the area. In it's wake is a strong and massive upper ridge over the W CONUS, with overall upper flow quite amplified/meridional in between. A weak, cut-off upper low continues to spin near the Baja of Mexico. Rising upper heights are expected thru the end of the week as the western ridge noses E before flattening this weekend. Gradually incr S/SW low level flow will draw much warmer air into the region compared to the past week, and a strengthening lee trough will make the wind much more noticeable too, esp this weekend.
A strong upper level ridge will dominate the short term portion of the forecast. The ridge will bring hot and dry conditions to the CWA with highs in the upper 80s, mid 90s today, and into the 90s and century mark on Friday. The low dew points will cause afternoon RH values to drop below 20 percent over a good portion of the CWA today and Friday.
455 AM MDT Thu Jun 3 2021 Significant upper-level ridging will continue to evolve across the western and central US through Friday.
Still some penchant for additional showers to develop within H85 based low level theta-e ridge far southeast into early aftn however better forcing will remain shunted well southeast through srn IN/sw-cntrl OH. Turning hot and dry as upper ridge builds across the OH valley/srn lakes this period. No doubt feedback from ongoing drought conditions across the north/west will play into daily diurnal trends with insolation driving deeper mixing and warmer aftn max temps even though background thermal ridge at H85 is sub 20C.
Milder temperatures will prevail across the interior areas as low pressure aloft gradually moves over the region. Despite the troughy nature to the upcoming weather pattern. Only impacts expected for NW CA will be increasing stratus along the coastal regions and cooler temperatures over the interior areas.
527 AM MDT Thu Jun 3 2021 A large ridge of high pressure will remain to our west through Friday before potentially breaking down as more energy moves in across the Pacific Northwest. The upper level flow will be out of the north-northeast so anticipate storms to fire off the high terrain initially this afternoon and drift into adjacent lower elevations of the Gunnison Basin, Durango and Pagosa Springs areas by late afternoon/early evening. Temperatures will maintain well above normal levels with highs rising into the mid 90s in many lower elevations today with upper 90s seen in some of the lower desert valleys of southeast Utah and west-central Colorado by Friday.
Upper level trough extending from the upper Mississippi River Valley down to the central Gulf coast along with a weak frontal boundary will bring an unstable pattern for the next several days. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop throughout much of the daytime hours as convective temperatures will remain low holding in the lower 80s.
An upper level ridge over the western CONUS will expand across the Plains today and remain the dominant pattern through the weekend. Closer to the surface, a lee trough is expected to set up along the Front Range today and become stationary over the short term period.
Strong high pressure over Nevada brings early season record heat to the region. Today through Friday evening Strong high pressure will be centered over Nevada this afternoon. Storms are less likely over eastern Nevada due high pressure subsidence and less moisture. High pressure flattens on Friday and the heat will be slightly less prominent.
With strong high pressure ridging and southwesterly flow, expect heat to be the biggest impact through Friday. The high pressure ridge does flatten today with a wave moving through our northern areas. Friday expect breezy winds across the area too, especially the Snake Plain and ridgetops.
This AM we have large scale upper troughing across East Central Conus approaching the Mid Mississippi River Valley. This upper trough is expected to weaken over Eastern Conus as the main energy pulls NE leaving the longwave trough flattened some as well as leaving a bit over energy over TX weakening the overall flow over AL by Friday. At the same time at the surface, we have a low pressure system over IN with a warm front extending EWD into OH/WV and MD and a cold front extending SSW toward MS. This low will continue to the NE across the Great Lakes and over New Brunswick by Friday morning. As it does so, it will drag the cold front into AL and stall it out across C AL late today as the low pulls further away and the upper level flow weakens.
Aloft, a weakening upper- tropospheric cold-core cyclone was drifting southward across central cuba. Moderate upper-level northerly flow was evident in satellite images over the Florida Keys, between the upper low and a narrow ridge extending from Mexico to the western North Atlantic. The atmosphere over the Florida Keys is conditionally unstable and moist in the low levels.