Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
skies had cleared with winds dropping off quickly as high pressure builds in from the west. 0130Z temperature were already near or below freezing over much of the forecast area. Blend temperatures in the low to mid 20s look significantly too warm given near ideal radiational cooling conditions anticipated overnight, as skies clear and winds go light to calm with the high center shifting into the area by morning. Bumped temps up only a bit as insolation continues to strengthen through the transition season, and daytime highs have tended to overperform in sunny conditions as of late, but depth and strength of turbulent mixing will be weaker with the high nearby.
The apex of the upper ridge moves east of the region on Friday with a weak short wave trough moving across the High Plains Friday afternoon and evening.
In fact, we are trending warmer in some cities west of the Cascades with regards to where we were this time yesterday. We are expecting cooler marine air to eventually make it onshore by late this evening through tonight. Like last night, some isolated spots like Wimer and southern portions of the Illinois valley might fall below freezing briefly. Therefore, we will stay away from a freeze warning for tonight given the isolated coverage and low probability of the freezing temperatures. By tomorrow, deeper westerly flow will develop well ahead of an approaching trough over the Pacific. Therefore, we will probably see some upper level clouds swing through the area during Friday afternoon and evening helping keep temperatures a little cooler than what we've seen the last few days.
An extended dry and warming trend can then be anticipated under building high pressure. Snow showers will gradually taper off tonight as the upper trough axis digs eastward. Lingering nrly flow on the eastern flank of building high pressure should maintain cold, dry, and mostly clear conditions Friday and Friday night.
848 PM CDT Thu Apr 1 2021 High pressure is centered over the middle Missouri River Valley this afternoon and will slowly shift east across the Midwest through the weekend.
An upper ridge is sliding east of the area today with a weakening front moving towards the area.
637 PM CDT Thu Apr 1 2021 Water vapor imagery continues to show upper troughing over the eastern CONUS and ridging over the western CONUS leaving the region in northwest flow and increasing heights. The upper ridge will continue to push east tomorrow while a weakening cut off low also shifts east from southern California into the Desert Southwest.
After temporarily diminishing tonight, winds will increase and become gusty by late morning Friday as a surface trof of low pressure remains in the vcnty of eastern CO and eastern NM. With lee troughing to the west and northwest of the Panhandles and high pressure over the Mississippi Valley, the pressure gradient across the Panhandles is on the stronger side today. An approaching upper closed low will eventually get embedded in the main flow tonight. Due to overall lack of moisture in the low to mid levels we are not expecting any precipitation with this system. For tomorrow, as the upper disturbance heads farther east through the Desert Southwest, winds aloft will become more westerly and this stronger cross-barrier flow should help intensify the lee troughing at the surface.
701 PM EDT Thu Apr 1 2021 The pressure gradient between the strong high pressure moving into the area and the cold front offshore keeps the wind a little elevated through tonight. With temperatures dropping to near or below freezing tonight, that has prompted a Freeze Warning for the more inland counties.
723 PM EDT Thu Apr 1 2021 Light snow across portions of the region will taper off this evening as coastal low pressure pulls away into the Canadian Maritimes.
Warmer air continues to filter into the state from the west as an upper ridge begins to traverse the region. Satellite imagery shows the ridge axis over the forecast area Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, the lack of a lee trough over eastern Wyoming will allow the Natrona County winds to slacken Friday. The upper ridge sharpens a bit Friday night. The ridge will still be in place for the weekend with the longwave trough off the West Coast deepening and enhancing the ridge axis over Wyoming.
Current temperatures were already in the lower to mid 30s and these will continue to fall off as the night wears on. Our current thinking is that we'll see temperatures in the lower-mid 20s with a few of the typical colder spots dropping into the upper teens. Highs should top out in the upper 40s to the lower 50s. Freeze Warning remains in effect for tomorrow morning as lows will be even colder than this morning dropping down into the low/mid 20s with some isolated teens possible.
625 PM CDT Thu Apr 1 2021 Upper level ridging in command across the region with nothing other than a few cirrus clouds drifting overhead this afternoon. Much of the same expected for Friday although temperatures will likely be 10-15 degrees warmer than today's values. Fairly stagnant pattern through the weekend with continued ridging overhead and thus dry conditions. Strengthening flow in the low levels will lead to LLWS for all sites, through daybreak to a couple hours after. Given trends/verification of model guidance vs observations, have relied on a more mixed scenario and thus dewpoints in the lower half of guidance and winds in the upper half of guidance.
Much Cooler Tonight and Remaining Windy Along the Coast. Hazardous Boating Conditions and Increasingly Rough Surf Also The cold front has now pushed into south Florida with much drier and cooler air overspreading central Florida behind it. Overnight lows will be much cooler than we have had in a while with most inland areas falling into the mid to upper 40s, although some normally cooler spots in northern Lake and northern Volusia may approach 40 degrees. Temps along the coast are a bit trickier as to whether winds will keep an onshore component (will stay slightly warmer than forecast) or not. Still, expect mid to upper 40s for Volusia and northern Brevard increasing to the low-mid 50s to the south, except upper 50s for Martin county.
A Freeze Watch will be maintained for parts of NE OK and E-central OK due to lower certainty in freezing temperatures being met. Winds are expected to gust between 20 and 25mph across the area with the highest gusts generally along and northwest of I-44. Despite these southerly winds, moisture will be slow to move into the area thanks to a cold front scouring moisture in the Gulf as noted in the latest PWAT imagery showing low PWATs moving into the Gulf. Past tomorrow, occasionally windy and dry conditions along with a warming trend will persist thanks to mid level ridging and the area being sandwiched between high pressure in the southeast US and relatively low pressure on the front range.
18Z surface data has high pressure from Lake Superior into the southern Plains. Cold Canadian high pressure will move across the area tonight. The wind combined with dry air and warmer temperatures will result in an elevated grassland fire risk, especially for areas west of the Mississippi.
Expect a gradual increase in marine layer clouds along with cooler temperatures heading into the weekend. Overall it's been a cooler day area-wide, though there has still been quite a bit of sunshine aside from some brief patches of coastal stratus.
201 PM PDT Thu Apr 1 2021 Very warm conditions today, as a weak low pressure system just to the south of San Diego brings a few thundershowers to the region today.
829 PM CDT Thu Apr 1 2021 (Issued 829 PM CDT Thu Apr 1 2021) Other than some lingering onshore flow near Lake Michigan, winds have become light and variable this evening as high pressure moves overhead. With clear skies and light winds, we should see temperatures drop into the low 20s overnight. As this high shifts off to the east tonight, winds will become southerly, setting the stage for a much warmer day tomorrow, with highs in the low to mid 50s. Boxell (Issued 325 PM CDT Thu Apr 1 2021) Tonight through Friday night: High pressure will move southeast of the region during this period. Warm air advection will lead to milder highs into the lower to middle 50s inland, with cooler values near the lake with winds shifting southeast.
A high pressure ridge building over the region will bring breezy, cool and dry conditions to the Peninsula this morning. Breezy conditions will make temperatures feel a few degrees cooler, so it might not be the best day to go the beach. A gradual warmth in temperatures is expected through the weekend as high pressure builds. High pressure will continue to dominate the rest of the period.
Other adjustments were to sky cover with opaque high clouds spreading across the region ahead of warm front. A surface trof now digging into the western Dakotas will continue to intensify the surface pressure gradient across eastern ND and into western MN through the late afternoon and early evening hours. Meanwhile a building H5 ridge aloft will provide overall airmass warming and generally fair skies. Cluster ensembles remain right on in favoring area temps at near or above freezing min temps and milder aftn readings, so p-type of rain would be optimized as short wave traverses the region while main dynamics remain to our north over the central Canadian prairies. Southeast winds eventually shift to the southwest during the day Friday with winds eventually turning west then north- northwest by Friday evening behind a cold front.
1128 PM CDT Thu Apr 1 2021 High pressure is centered over the middle Missouri River Valley this afternoon and will slowly shift east across the Midwest through the weekend.
As winds along and west of the Red River Valley turn more west, and then northwest (as a cold front moves in), there may be a late day temperature push. A ridge continues to translate across the Northern Plains end of the weekend and into the work week.
High pressure continues to dominate the western states.
On Saturday, the upper ridge will begin to advance onto the Plains.
Sprawling SFC/LL high pressure remains dominant, while deep upper trough across the eastern US slowly dampens and eventually transitions into a weak ridge. In addition to this morning's freezing temps, we are likely to see freezing temps most of the area again Saturday morning. These features will be supported by a fairly deep upper low as well. Cold front is expected to push by on Fri, with trailing closed upper low moving over the immediate vicinity late Fri into early Sat.
(Today and tonight) Surface pressure falls will occur today across the high Plains resulting in increasing pressure gradient and gusty south winds across the area. These south winds and increased cloud cover will also keep temperatures warmer tonight with most locations remaining well into the 40s.
250 AM MDT Fri Apr 2 2021 Current surface map shows trof moving through eastern Montana/eastern Wyoming. Main story through the weekend will be critical fire weather conditions as flat upper level ridge sets up across the plains. Surface trof crosses the western Dakotas this morning, with gusty northwest winds.
239 AM CDT Fri Apr 2 2021 Surface analysis shows the Canadian high pressure center to the east of the forecast area and a light southeast wind has developed west of the ridge axis. The pressure gradient is expected to increase today over the area as the Canadian high pressure system continues to drift to the east.
Part of this is due to the warming trend under a broad upper ridge that will push highs into the 80s by Saturday as H85 temps climb to around +16C. A broad ridge will be overhead at 500mb, and an area of low pressure at the surface will be set up from western SD through northeastern ND.
The cold and dry airmass associated with the ridge allows temperatures to drop to near or below freezing overnight tonight and again Friday night into Saturday morning across most of the forecast area. Aloft, blocking is noted over the North Atlantic as a cut off low meanders under a ridge. Trough that is still sitting off the east coast will slowly help to squeeze ridge, though that will lead to omega blocking until the ridge finally breaks on the anticyclonic shear side of the polar jet, which doesn't look to happen for several days. As a result, overall forecast pattern over the CONUS is a little stagnant, especially on the east side, which helps keep our high pressure mostly in place while airmass slowly modifies.
254 AM MDT Fri Apr 2 2021 Models still handling the flat ridge well across the western half of the US, with well above normal temperatures expected today and again tomorrow. Highs for the lower elevations will be a good 15 to 20 degrees above normal, with several record highs threatened today and Saturday.
Very dry air was out ahead of this ridging, and was firmly in place in nrn Michigan, resulting in clear/mostly clear skies. Highs today will largely be in the lower to middle 40s. Pattern synopsis and forecast: High pressure will dominate the eastern half of the CONUS. With the aforementioned high pressure center moving just to the east of northern Michigan. southwestward winds will begin advecting warmer air.
In the review of the gridded forecast for Saturday morning, decided against the issuance of frost and freeze headlines, given the extremely short period (an hour or less) and overall coverage of frost and/or freezing temperatures near sunrise on Saturday.
Unfortunately, another frost or freeze is possible again on Saturday morning, as temperatures fall into the low to mid 30s areawide. High pressure will slide east by Saturday allowing for warmer temperatures to push through.
The highest confidence in the coldest temperatures remains across northeastern portions of the state but many locations elsewhere are expected to fall to or below freezing. Dry weather is in store for the coming days as sfc ridging pushes to the east but remains nearby and the H500 flow remains out of the NW.
216 AM EDT Fri Apr 2 2021 High pressure settles into the area today offering dry weather and subfreezing temperatures this morning and again Saturday morning.
Warmer air continues to filter into the state from the west as an upper ridge begins to traverse the region.
258 AM MDT Fri Apr 2 2021 A persistent westerly flow aloft will continue the dry, breezy, and warmer than normal conditions across the region through the weekend.
The low was 23 degrees and from what I remember it was rather impactful. So, it's 6 days earlier and hopefully 3 degrees warmer. Moving on, warming trend will kick in on Saturday as we warm back into the lower to mid 60s.
Highs will be in the low to mid 60s. With near ideal radiational cooling conditions, expect one more morning (Saturday) where much of the area cools to near or below freezing.
/27/ Breezy northerly winds this evening continue and are the primary forecast obstacle tonight as the winds will need to lower considerably if target lows near freezing are to verify. Primary forecast adjustment was to raise the overnight expected low across the Pine Belt a degree or two as that area is least likely to reach freezing with stronger overnight winds and by virtue of being further south, away from the deepest cold air.
Surface winds will become breezy today as the surface pressure gradient tightens due to a lee cyclone dropping into SE CO. The combination of cloudier skies, stronger winds, and warmer temperatures aloft will lead to a more mild night with temperatures bottoming out in the upper 30's to low 40's. Easter will bring even warmer conditions as mid-level ridging bends over West Texas in the wake of Saturday's disturbance and southerly surface winds persist.
353 AM CDT Fri Apr 2 2021 (Issued 353 AM CDT Fri Apr 2 2021) Today through Saturday Night: High pressure centered over Illinois early this morning will gradually move southeast out of the region today.
347 AM CDT Fri Apr 2 2021 A breezy day ahead as the surface pressure gradient over the area tightens in response to a lee cyclone dropping into SE CO. Mid-level moisture advected ahead of a trough over Baja California at 2 AM will promote a layer of mid-level clouds this afternoon into this evening. With the low levels rather dry, despite moisture advection from southerly winds, the chances of any precipitation making it to the ground is rather low.
Surface observations early this morning indicate that the center of the high is currently making its way through Indiana as winds have become light and variable across the area. These light winds will continue into tonight while the high slowly tracks eastward. This will create tight pressure gradients and flow at the lower levels which will pick winds up through the day Saturday. Temperatures will continue to be on the colder side into tonight due to northwesterly flow aloft on the back side of an upper trough. Cold air advection will weaken through the period as the trough continues eastward, towards the Atlantic, which will allow for a warming trend into Saturday. Near to below freezing temperatures are in the forecast again tonight but Saturday will warm even more into the lower 60s ushering Spring back in.
A deep full-latitudinal trough covering the entire Eastern United States equatorward down the Sunshine and the Florida Keys. In wake of the departing trough aloft, a low level anticylonic flow combined with a decelerating northeast to east flow will result in partly to mostly sunny skies, temperatures near normal and only a slight chance of showers through this period.
The Freeze Warning will remain in effect through 14Z this morning as most areas will see near or below freezing temps this morning. This will allow for highs to be a few deg warmer than Thu. A weak upper disturbance will rotate E/SE around the upper ridge to the SW tonight into Sat. These increased clouds and some elevated winds will keep temps warmer for Sat morning. Lows for Sat night will be even warmer than Fri night.
High pressure will build and expand over the Gulf coast states through Saturday allowing for fair weather to continue.
Additionally, very light showers ahead of an approaching cold front stream along the Nature Coast towards Northeast FL, however a majority of the returns appear to be virga with many sites not recording precip at the moment. Temps tonight only fall to the lower 60s. Approaching cold front late tonight will steadily increase moisture after 06Z, with showers beginning prior to daybreak. Outside of precipitation, generally favorable boating conditions will continue with light and variable winds veering to the northwest at around 10 kt behind a pre-frontal trough.
Look for the clouds to decrease from west to east through the night as an upper level trough axis passes.
352 PM CST Sat Feb 12 2022 H5 analysis this morning had high pressure anchored off the coast of California with a ridge extending north into the Alaska Panhandle and northwestern British Columbia. At the surface, low pressure was located over northeastern Montana. A warm front extended to the southeast of the low into central South Dakota and far northeastern Nebraska. Low pressure will quickly dive southeast across South Dakota and Nebraska tonight forcing a reinforcing shot of colder air in the form of an arctic cold front.
97 Upper level ridge remains parked over the West for one more day bringing dry conditions and well above seasonal average temperatures to our region.
High pressure will remain over the area through Sunday.
Daytime highs will be a little warmer Sunday with readings in the mid 40s to mid 50s. to our east) will allow for breezy/mixed NW winds across the lower elevations again Sunday.
This will be little more than a wind shift as cooler air will remain to our northeast, resulting in warmer temperatures today than was seen yesterday.
1123 PM CST Sat Feb 12 2022 As the mean trough over the CONUS continues to push more east today, ridging continues to amplify over the west CONUS.
Snow will diminish from west to east after midnight as the trough axis moves east of the forecast area. Any snow accumulation should be limited to a dusting across lower elevations and up to an inch along the ridges with orographic enhancement.
As a cold front moves to the southeast of the local area, cloud cover will be on the decrease from northwest to southeast through Sunday morning.
Meanwhile, a moisture boundary, akin to a pseudo warm front, is lifting northward across the Straits of Florida.
Expect the relatively deeper accumulations in the higher terrain of Wise and Washington counties in Virginia, along with Johnson and Carter counties in TN, will be around an inch or less. McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 46 25 52 29 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 43 24 47 27 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 43 23 47 26 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 41 20 41 23 54 / 10 10 0 0 0.
Snow will diminish from west to east after midnight as the trough axis moves east of the forecast area. Any snow accumulation should be limited across lower elevations with higher amounts along the ridges with orographic enhancement.
153 AM MST Sun Feb 13 2022 Latest analysis shows northwesterly flow aloft as the northern plains remains between a broad upper ridge over the western CONUS and an upper trough extending from the Great Lakes region to the eastern Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, high pressure is moving southeastward across the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota, with a trough extending from Saskatchewan, southward through eastern Montana/Wyoming. The warm advection will help to produce warmer than average temperatures over the forecast area today. While expected cloud cover may keep temperatures from reaching the full potential warming, highs are still expected to range from 10F to 20F degrees warmer than the average for this time of year.
Highs today should be warmer than compared to yesterday with values peaking in the upper 50s to close to around 60 across far southwest Kansas to lower to mid 50s elsewhere.
251 AM CST Sun Feb 13 2022 with high pressure now settled on the region.
Clear skies continue Sunday as high pressure moves in from the west.
1117 PM CST Sat Feb 12 2022 A dry cold front will move across the terminals on Sunday with a corresponding wind shift to the west/northwest.
211 AM EST Sun Feb 13 2022 Area of light rain spreading over west central at this time ahead of a cold front currently approaching north Florida. The cold front will push across the Florida peninsula today with light rain ending from north to south through the morning hours across the nature coast. Canadian high pressure will build over the forecast area in the wake of the front late today and tonight with much colder drier air advecting across the region on gusty north to northwest winds. around 40 to the lower 40s central.
1245 AM EST Sun Feb 13 2022 A cold front will cross the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia tonight and settle southeast of the region on Sunday while ushering in much colder air.
Guidance suggests the low will deepen as it moves into Saskatchewan, further promoting pressure falls north and east of Livingston. Winds will subside during the day Sunday as higher pressure builds in behind the low. Daytime highs will be a little warmer Sunday with readings in the mid 40s to mid 50s. to our east) will allow for breezy/mixed NW winds across the lower elevations again Sunday.
1019 PM EST Sat Feb 12 2022 A cold front will cross the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia tonight and settle southeast of the region on Sunday while ushering in much colder air.
1113 PM CST Sat Feb 12 2022 H5 analysis this morning had high pressure anchored off the coast of California with a ridge extending north into the Alaska Panhandle and northwestern British Columbia. At the surface, low pressure was located over northeastern Montana. A warm front extended to the southeast of the low into central South Dakota and far northeastern Nebraska. Low pressure will quickly dive southeast across South Dakota and Nebraska tonight forcing a reinforcing shot of colder air in the form of an arctic cold front.
Temperatures will trend warmer tomorrow into the 60s across much of the Panhandles.