Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
532 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2020 The elongated trough is currently stretched across the Great Basin with its base over southern California, opening over the Northern Rockies. As the trough axis progresses eastward this morning, the jet will push eastward. Isolated showers developing along the trough's axis in combination with weak dynamic support from the exiting jet will result in an increase in coverage early this morning. The base of the mid- level trough will straddle the CWA this afternoon, pushing across the Front Range by midnight tonight. Anticipate temperatures dropping behind the trough passage this afternoon and below freezing conditions across the board by Saturday morning. A weak ridge develops overhead Saturday bringing mostly dry conditions across the CWA, besides the aformentioned showers lingering along the Divide.
Today Through Saturday Night Upper ridge was centered ovr the Gulf this mrng, with abundant mid and high lvl clouds streaming acrs the region fm the SW. Meanwhile, an strong upper trof wl be lifting out of the 4-corners region by tngt, heading toward the upr Great Lakes region late in the PD.
High pressure aloft and at the surface will again result in quiet conditions across the region today. The low clouds that developed during the overnight/early morning hours, will continue to erode across the CWA through early afternoon, resulting in a mix of partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. Anomalous mid level ridge over the eastern CONUS continues to sharpen as a potent trough moves across the Rockies. While these conditions continue or even get stronger today, would expect as warm or warmer highs again today, especially given the warmer conditions this morning.
/Issued 327 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020/ Convection this morning has remained well to the north in Kansas in association with a warm front that was across that region. Today will be 'cooler' than the upper 80s to mid 90s that were realized across much of the forecast area yesterday as high clouds and a surge of low level moisture has advected into the area. There is still uncertainty concerning convective evolution this evening and tonight as an upper level trough pushes out of the mountain west region into the central plains. Cooler temperatures are expected through the weekend, with dry conditions expected for the remainder of the weekend.
The current severe thunderstorm watch is set to expire at 10Z for the area north of the Highway 54 corridor. As we go through the day on Friday, a deep trough stationed across the southwest CONUS will begin to sweep out across the Plains. By Saturday, the upper level trough will transition through the Mississippi Valley.
A cold front was dropping south into KY early this morning, and getting ready to stall. For Friday into Friday evening, have favored the higher resolution NAM. This puts a low POP in the forecast over the far northern portion of the forecast area Friday into Friday evening, with activity then fading out as the front lifts back to our north as a warm front. The flow around the system will have us in its warm sector on Saturday, awaiting the system's cold front to move in from the west. A weakening cold front will bring showers and storms to eastern Kentucky over the upcoming weekend.
Daytime highs will reach the low to mid 80s and couldn't rule out a few spots reaching the upper 80s. Dry conditions and warmer than normal temps will persist into tonight as high pressure lingers a little bit longer. Seasonable overnight lows are 44-45 degrees and tonight, they will be more like normal afternoon temps in the low to mid 60s. As our next system swings out of the Southwest, the ridge in place will slide eastward Friday night into Saturday. It will lift up into the Upper MS Valley on Saturday and pull a cold front into the region on Saturday.
A cold front will bring showers and cold temperatures to northern Arizona today.
Expect much cooler conditions today with many areas 15 degrees below normal.
Areas right along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts may benefit from an earlier onset of the sea breeze which could keep them a few degrees cooler than areas further inland. Most maximum temperature records for Friday and Saturday are in the lower to mid 90s except for APF today which has a record of 89. Overall, temperatures are forecast to remain a few degrees cooler than most records both this afternoon and again on Saturday.
A low pressure system over southern Nevada this morning will move away across Northern Arizona by this afternoon.
A few showers are possible in eastern Nevada this afternoon, otherwise there will be increasing clouds with cooler then normal temperatures through Saturday.
Unseasonably warm and humid conditions can be expected on Saturday ahead of the cold front with highs about 20 degrees above normal. Will have CAPE values up to around 2500 J/kg in northeast MO/west central IL and strong deep layer wind shear Saturday afternoon due to a 90 kt mid level jet ahead of the upper level trough. Convection will shift southeast of the forecast area by late Saturday night with cooler and less humid air filtering into our area behind the cold front.
355 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2020 The elongated trough is currently stretched across the Great Basin with its base over southern California, opening over the Northern Rockies. As the trough axis progresses eastward this morning, the jet will push eastward. Isolated showers developing along the trough's axis in combination with weak dynamic support from the exiting jet will result in an increase in coverage early this morning. The base of the mid- level trough will straddle the CWA this afternoon, pushing across the Front Range by midnight tonight. Anticipate temperatures dropping behind the trough passage this afternoon and below freezing conditions across the board by Saturday morning. A weak ridge develops overhead Saturday bringing mostly dry conditions across the CWA, besides the aformentioned showers lingering along the Divide.
407 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020 (Today and Tonight) Very warm temperatures expected again today, although abundant mid and high cloud cover will result in slightly cooler temperatures than yesterday. An upper level trough, currently over the southwest states, will lift northeast across the Southern Rockies today and into the Central Plains on Saturday. This system will drag a Pacific cold front across the area overnight and will bring cooler conditions for Saturday, with temperatures returning to seasonal values. Cooler temperatures and gusty west winds will develop behind the front late tonight, with overnight lows in the 50s.
359 AM PDT Fri Mar 27 2020 Scattered showers will end this morning as a cold trough moves east. Some weak ridging aloft will allow temperatures to moderate into Saturday, but onshore flow will maintain a deep marine layer, with clouds redeveloping each night.
300 AM PDT Fri Mar 27 2020 Dry and warmer today, then unsettled weather over the weekend with showers and mountain snow showers.
Dry conditions and warmer than normal temps will persist into tonight as high pressure lingers a little bit longer. Seasonable overnight lows are 44-45 degrees and tonight, they will be more like normal afternoon temps in the low to mid 60s. As our next system swings out of the Southwest, the ridge in place will slide eastward Friday night into Saturday. It will lift up into the Upper MS Valley on Saturday and pull a cold front into the region on Saturday.
Farther upstream, a trough was moving southeast across the NERN PAC. Model guidance indicates the trough will impact NWRN CA tonight through the weekend. Deep-layer moistening along with modest destabilization will occur as ascent increases and midlevel temperatures cool with the trough, which will favor light to moderate shower activity.
507 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2020 A cold front was dropping south into KY early this morning, and getting ready to stall. For Friday into Friday evening, have favored the higher resolution NAM. This puts a low POP in the forecast over the far northern portion of the forecast area Friday into Friday evening, with activity then fading out as the front lifts back to our north as a warm front. The flow around the system will have us in its warm sector on Saturday, awaiting the system's cold front to move in from the west. A weakening cold front will bring showers and storms to eastern Kentucky over the upcoming weekend.
617 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020 Severe Weather potential late tonight through early Saturday Another round of severe weather likely late tonight as deep upper trof moves into the region. the low pressure system stacks up to the north in Iowa, providing a dry slot across the CWA.
315 AM PDT Fri Mar 27 2020 Scattered showers will end this morning as a cold trough moves east. Some weak ridging aloft will allow temperatures to moderate into Saturday, but onshore flow will maintain a deep marine layer, with clouds redeveloping each night.
Upper level ridging and height rises will help temperatures soar into the 80s this afternoon. A low pressure system will spin up over the Central Plains, sending a cold front southward through the Mid-Mississippi Valley.
Mid level high pressure centered in the Gulf of Mexico as well as upper level ridging will result in another dry and warm day. The latest model guidance continues to show a mid to upper level trough moving eastward across the Rockies today and into the Great Plains by late tonight. Conditions will continue to deteriorate thereafter through Saturday afternoon as the cold front moves across the region.
This storm track would generally favor the I-80 corridor from Cheyenne to Sidney, especially along the Cheyenne Ridge. Questions remain surrounding the timing as some slight warming in the afternoon may yield a rain/snow mix, and the warmer ground temperatures may limit overall impacts even where 6+ inches fall. Based on the storm track and SREF plumes clustering around 5 inches near Kimball, confidence is high in at least Advisory level amounts along the Cheyenne Ridge. More questions across Converse & Niobrara counties & the northern NE Panhandle along the Pine Ridge. Snow quickly ends on Saturday morning, w/ weak upper-level ridging in control through the weekend.
1032 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2020 Water vapor imagery highlights a formidable ridge complex roughly centered over Central America and the Western Caribbean. The low level anticyclone is just east of Florida, supporting high pressure centered near Bermuda. High pressure centered near Bermuda will lumber to the southeast over the next few days.
/Today through Saturday/ An upper ridge over the Gulf of Mexico will move off to the east while a strong upper trough continues to dig towards the Four Corners Region. Overnight, the upper trough will move through the Rockies and will emerge onto the Plains by sunrise Saturday.
At the start of the period, strong mid/upper level ridging over the Central Gulf of Mexico continues to dominate our weather pattern across the region, characterized by hot and dry temperatures as a subsidence inversion above 850mb keeps our region suppressed and rain free.
The low pressure system will strengthen as it moves east, reaching eastern Nebraska on Saturday afternoon. A band of precipitation that was located over southwestern and parts of south central South Dakota through much of the day has been slow to move northward as it has had trouble overcoming relatively dry air in the lower and mid-levels. That area of precipitation is becoming better defined as lift associated with a jet streak increases ahead of the approaching upper trough. Forecast wet bulb zeros suggest mostly snow over the higher elevations of the Black Hills with a few inches possible mainly over the southern Black Hills this evening. On Saturday, the low pressure system will move away to the east with drier air pushing into the forecast area.
Upper level ridging will remain in place over the region today, resulting in above normal temperatures. Abundant cloud cover will keep temps a little cooler than yesterday. /Today through Saturday/ An upper ridge over the Gulf of Mexico will move off to the east while a strong upper trough continues to dig towards the Four Corners Region. Overnight, the upper trough will move through the Rockies and will emerge onto the Plains by sunrise Saturday.
Late afternoon and into this evening, WAA ahead of the strengthening primary low will begin to push the boundary back north as a warm front. A few storms may form along the warm front along and south of I-35, though the degree of coverage is in question. Later in the evening and into the overnight hours, additional storms are more likely to form north of the warm front. The primary low and associated Pacific cold front will pass through the central Plains Saturday, setting up a strong pressure gradient in its wake across northeast Kansas and surrounding areas.
An area of low pressure will trek from the KS/CO border this evening, into north central Kansas by tomorrow morning, then into the Upper Mississippi Valley tomorrow afternoon. A cold front associated with this system will move through the area tonight shifting winds to the northwest and increasing in speed.
As main upper low lifts into the central Plains tonight, scattered strong storms could redevelop along cold front across northeast Oklahoma moving into northeast Oklahoma Saturday morning.
With the warm front lifting north, this will keep the better precip potential to the north as well. A cold front was dropping south into KY early this morning, and getting ready to stall. For Friday into Friday evening, have favored the higher resolution NAM. This puts a low POP in the forecast over the far northern portion of the forecast area Friday into Friday evening, with activity then fading out as the front lifts back to our north as a warm front. The flow around the system will have us in its warm sector on Saturday, awaiting the system's cold front to move in from the west. A weakening cold front will bring showers and storms to eastern Kentucky over the upcoming weekend.
324 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020 A large mid/upper level trough/low continues to drift across the southwest US with the surface reflection deepening across eastern Colorado. Weak forcing for ascent continues to move northeast ahead of the main trough allowing a few showers to move overhead with mainly drizzle/low clouds and fog over the region. This should continue into the evening with increasing chances for widespread showers overnight as forcing increases ahead of the approaching mid/upper level low. In addition, a sharp temperature gradient will be in place as the low passes overhead during peak heating. Rapidly falling temperatures behind the low could create a bit of a mix of wintry weather for some time on Saturday.
In between system for through Saturday, but enough moisture still hanging around to pop a few showers over the high country.
/Tonight through Saturday night/ Another day of dry conditions and above normal temperatures as upper ridging continues to expand into our region, with the center of the ridge still parked over the Gulf of Mexico. By tonight, the upper ridge will start to shift eastward as the center of the high in the gulf moves east. At the same time, an upper trough in the Great Basin Region will push eastward into Colorado and will start to strengthen and close off as it moves into the Central Plains by Saturday morning, dragging a cold front with it towards our region.
On Saturday, a deepening trough over the plains with an associated upper level low across NE and IA will move eastward throughout the day. A cold front draped to the south of the low will provide the next chance of rain and thunderstorms for the Tennessee Valley as it sweeps through in the late evening to overnight hours. The better parameters for severe storms lie closer to the parent low, but enough instability and forcing may result in a few strong storms right along the cold front.
This low will pull out in central Kansas by late tonight, with the attendant warm front draped across central Missouri. A strengthening low level jet, warm advection and moisture transport will lead to convective development this evening, mainly in vicinity of the low and warm front. Otherwise, with ample effective shear and instability will see coverage increase through the overnight hours, with a hail threat along and north and of the warm front. This will push a cold front through the area late in the day and early evening. Of another concern is the strong pressure gradient that develops around the low, and model guidance showing the potential for 40 to 45 mph gusts across portions of the region, especially the western areas.
The upper level ridge centered across the Gulf of Mexico today will slide east tonight and tomorrow as an upper level trough across the western U. At the surface, the region will remain on the western edge of the high. While the low level flow remains southerly and fog is expected again tonight (including some dense fog), the shifting pattern will allow for deep layer southerly flow by Saturday.
As we move through the next few hours, the aformentioned high-amplitude trough axis continues to progress eastward. Lingering showers in the higher terrain near the Continental Divide are possible this evening and overnight. However, only 2-4 inches can should be expected in the highest elevations. Thanks to the colder air, cloud cover, and precipitation today, temperatures have remained much cooler than normal in many places.
245 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2020 Water vapor imagery highlights a formidable deep-layer ridge complex roughly centered over Central America and the Western Caribbean. The low level anticyclone is just east of Florida, supporting high pressure centered near Bermuda. Visible satellite imagery reveals very squashed cumulus cloud rolls, some nearing the Upper Keys, some in the lee of the Lower Keys, and others spreading west through the Straits. The low- level inversion sampled by this morning's KKEY RAOB remains in effect.
313 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2020 Current conditions across the region features scattered cloud cover with a warm front draped across northern Kentucky and into West Virginia. In fact a bit of clearing tonight into southeastern KY may lead to a few instances of ridge to valley temperature differences. Into the day on Saturday, cloud cover will be on the increase with the approach of the cold front to the west. A weakening cold front will bring showers and storms to eastern Kentucky over the upcoming weekend.
08z surface analysis had weak high over the Midwest with trough from southeast MT into central CO. Water vapour depicted upper trough from central MT into southern CA. Attention turns to upper trough. Today/tonight, upper trough lifts northeast as 130kt jet streak kicks it out. Cyclogenesis occurs over the OK panhandle, moving into the Midwest by Saturday morning as it becomes a distinct upper low. Wet bulb zeros suggest mostly snow over the higher elevations with a few inches possible.
Latest GOES-16 low level water vapor channel shows broad southwesterly flow from the Southern Plains to the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valleys, with a deepening trough near the Four Corners Region. The aforementioned trough, near the Four Corners region, is expected to vigorously eject across the Rockies overnight and spawn a 997mb low near the Oklahoma Panhandle by Saturday morning. At the surface, a warm front will lift north into the Upper Mississippi Valley during the day as a cold front marches northeast across the Central Plains. As the cold front marches east by late afternoon, storms are expected to form along or just ahead of the front. The cold front is expected to cross the Tennessee River just after midnight, with rain chances diminishing rather quickly in its wake.
234 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020 An upper trough extending from ID to Srn CA this morning will swing across AZ today into NM tonight before lifting across the Panhandle Saturday morning. After that will have brief ridging aloft.
322 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020 Warm temperatures will remain in place tonight and tomorrow with temperatures in the 70's tonight and in the mid to upper 80's tomorrow ahead of the cold front. The cold front will begin to sweep across the western counties of the CWA tomorrow morning and push through the Coastal Bend during the afternoon. With the low relative humidity values and elevated winds fire weather conditions will be favorable across Webb county tomorrow beginning at 16z until 23z.
As a mid-upper trough and associated DPVA move in later additional convection may occur, a few of which could be strong to severe.
Mostly clear, warm and dry conditions into this evening with troughing over the ern zones associated with development of the east coast sea breeze, which should be confined to areas around I-95 eastward. After fog and stratus dissipate a warm southwest flow and strong ridge aloft will continue to support very warm and dry conditions. A few degrees cooler at the beaches as the afternoon Atlantic sea breeze develops. Record high temperatures look probable inland with max temps in the lower 90s, with a few mid 90s possible.
A pleasant night is in store for the region as a strengthening low pressure system moves out of the Colorado Rockies toward the Great Lakes. It looks like we will be able to squeeze out another great day on Saturday with sufficient sunshine and southerly winds to boost temperatures back into the lower 80s. Saturday night, an occluding low across the western Great Lakes will have a trailing cold front across the Ohio Valley through West Tennessee.
Otherwise, expect cooler conditions for tomorrow with high temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
1151 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020 Severe Weather potential late tonight through early Saturday Another round of severe weather likely late tonight as deep upper trof moves into the region. the low pressure system stacks up to the north in Iowa, providing a dry slot across the CWA.
Overnight lows will range from the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Rain chances will be increasing very early tomorrow morning across our northern CWA with the arrival of the cold front. Cooler/drier air will be filtering into the area be- hind the front tomorrow night.
Winds pick up Saturday as the back side of the trof builds in and pressures fall over the Dakotas. This downslope will keep dry conditions east of the Divide, while continued moisture flowing into the high country will provide scattered snow showers there.
The large upper level low across the central Plains will shift northeastward into southern Minnesota by Saturday.
Southwest winds continue ahead of the western states low pressure system.
Less concerned about fog today than in previous days due to the higher winds, but low ceilings will continue to be a potential issue.
Upper ridge of high pressure now centered over the middle Gulf stretching north to just east of the MS River Valley will shift east to the FL Peninsula and eastern seaboard through Sat afternoon in response to a deepening upper trough/low moving eastward mostly over the central part of the country. As the upper system continues to shift more to the north, generally over the mid section of the country, the trailing cold front will begin to weaken which is now progged to stall north of the northern Gulf coast over the weekend.
A strong low pressure system will track across central WI Saturday night. A warm front out ahead of it will bring a round of showers this evening, with intermittent light showers/drizzle/fog overnight. General thunder is more likely with any showers that develop Saturday afternoon as elevated CAPE grows with the approaching upper low/steeper mid level lapse rates. Southeast WI has the lowest chance for severe.
GAH MORNING DISCUSSION: Montana will be in an upper ridge the next few days with warm temperatures and dry weather.
The upper ridge responsible for the heat will remain over the Southeast for one more day, bringing near-record warmth again on Saturday.