Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The main concern tonight is fog and freezing fog in the west side valleys. In spite of a thermal trough along the coast, and light offshore winds to the Cascades a lingering deck at around 5000 ft MSL is slow to move out this evening. A trough brings another round of light showers, mostly to near the coast north of Cape Blanco tomorrow. A weak disturbance should break the low cloud deck up late tomorrow morning, but only to MVFR ceilings.
Expect similar conditions again on Saturday as the area of high pressure remains anchored off the Pacific Coast to bring northwest flow across the forecast area.
252 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2021 Another weak cold front will move through the area today doing little other than cause winds to increase from the northwest, and hold off warmer temperatures until tomorrow.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 34 47 29 55 / 40 90 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 47 32 39 26 50 / 20 90 20 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 48 33 39 26 51 / 20 90 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 31 38 22 48 / 10 90 30 0 0 NC.
Strong north winds behind the front will advect cold air into southwest Kansas through the late afternoon, and it is possible several locations have already seen the highest temperature of the day as cold advection and cloud cover significantly limit daytime heating.
Elsewhere, high pressure will provide a sunny and cold day. Morning snow showers are anticipated across southeast portions of the forecast area as the overnight cold front gets briefly hung up over the ridges of northern WV. A quick inch of new snow is possible on the ridge tops. Otherwise, the rest of the day will be dry and chilly, with a good deal of sunshine, as weak high pressure crosses. 1 to 3 inches of snow accumulation looks possible over the Laurels/West Virginia ridges, but will hold off on any headlines for now. Snow will taper off Sunday afternoon as a cold front sweeps through. Sunday night will be very cold as high pressure settles in.
With winds of over 40kt at 700mb and strengthening inversion near ridgelines, seeing some strong gusty downslope winds across favored valleys this evening. Gusty winds 40-65 mph are also reported in the highest exposed ridgelines. Winds will also increase again with the passage of this trough, although a bit weaker than today.
Today through Sunday night A cold front will move through the Panhandles this morning resulting in a wind shift to the northwest and north with speeds increasing to around 15 to 25 mph and 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts by late morning. The upper flow will transition to more zonal by Sunday night as another upper trough tracks across the northern and central Rockies into the central Plains states. Schneider Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across all of the Panhandles today as a cold front moves through today.
In the wake of the weather system, cold air will try once again to push into the area via surface ridging. Highs will range from the mid teens northwest to the lower 30s along and south of the Ohio River.
One of these trough rolls off the Northern Rockies this morning, bringing the likelihood of some light snow today across the Plains into IA/IL. Any light snow associated with the trough passage is expected to remain south of the TAF sites.
It should be a couple hours before any snow overcomes the low level dry air in eastern Nebraska and reaches the ground. Forecast snow amounts have shifted slightly south over the last 12 hours, with CAMs indicating the highest totals along the NE/KS border. A strong longwave trough or "polar vortex" if you prefer, should remain centered just south of Hudson Bay through midweek, and this will continue to funnel Arctic air south into the Plains.
Broad, large scale upper level trough extended coast to coast over the Lower 48 this afternoon. Forecast concerns will deal with a couple of strong wind episodes for the wind-prone areas, as well as accumulating snowfall over the mountains and portions of the high plains as the large scale trough dominates this weekend. A upper level disturbance will track southeast along a quasi-stationary boundary draped over the high plains tonight and Saturday morning, producing a band of light snow from eastern WY into the NE Panhandle. Total accumulations in excess of two feet are likely, especially over the higher peaks. Banded snowfall continues across the high plains of southeastern into the NE Panhandle.
Broad, large scale upper level trough extended coast to coast over the Lower 48 this afternoon. Forecast concerns will deal with a couple of strong wind episodes for the wind-prone areas, as well as accumulating snowfall over the mountains and portions of the high plains as the large scale trough dominates this weekend. A upper level disturbance will track southeast along a quasi-stationary boundary draped over the high plains tonight and Saturday morning, producing a band of light snow from eastern WY into the NE Panhandle. Total accumulations in excess of two feet are likely, especially over the higher peaks.
Looking at webcams and the high ceilings being reported at PIR, snow looks to still be only over our western counties (mainly Stanley and northern Jones). Mid-level troffing looks to remain in place across the Northern Plains through the period, with below to well below normal temperatures expected.
Mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures will be abundant through Sunday.
By early this afternoon showers ahead of the lifting warm front will spread northward across the area as well as lowering clouds. Wintry precipitation is expected with borderline freezing temperatures across north Georgia late this evening into the early morning hours. Models are showing some warmer temperatures moving into portions of the Atlanta Metropolitan area and northward through this evening which will keep winter precip at a minimum across all but northeast Georgia. Snowfall amounts are currently expected to be up to one inch at elevations of 1500 ft or lower, and between 1 and 3 inches at the higher elevations. Some locally higher amounts will also be possible in the highest elevations. With inconsistencies noted as to the amount of warmer air with this system, snow totals may continue to change in the Warning and Advisory areas.
This evening, between 00-06z, a narrow corridor of light snow is possible along and south of I-70 as a weak impulse of energy translates through the large scale trough. No mixed precip with this event as the full temp profile will be below freezing. As precip exits late Saturday evening, high pressure builds across the northern Plains, ushering in the coolest air of the season. The pressure gradient between the exiting low and the high pressure over the Plains will keep winds from becoming calm, resulting in dangerous wind chills Sunday AM.
351 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2021 A frontal boundary will lift north into the area with widespread rain later today into tonight as low pressure develops to our south. High pressure then brings dry weather Sunday along with gusty winds.
Throughout the short term period, a mid/upper-level trough will gradually migrate eastward from the southern Plains into the SE CONUS, supporting a low-level poleward mass flux across the Gulf of Mexico and associated increase in instability across the region. The mid/upper- level trough will support an increase in deep-layer westerly wind shear across South Florida (primarily the northern portions of the area) -- which combined with warm/moist air advection (increasing low-level instability) will support a conditional risk of strong showers/storms across the Atlantic waters overnight tonight into the early morning hours.
334 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2021 A frontal boundary will lift north into the area with widespread rain later today into tonight as low pressure develops to our south. High pressure then brings dry weather Sunday along with gusty winds.
Will see another quiet night before winds pick up Saturday morning behind a cold front. Winds quickly switch to the west and southwest Sunday leading to much warmer temperatures.
One of these trough rolls off the Northern Rockies this morning, bringing the likelihood of some light snow today across the Plains into IA/IL. Cigs/WX/vsby: trough swinging through the region, bringing some clouds and light snow.
Mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures are forecast through Sunday.
501 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2021 The Arctic cold front will move into northern Kansas this morning before progressing southward thru the rest of the state during the early afternoon.
643 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2021 Weak low pressure will develop in the north Gulf of Mexico and track northeast along the South Carolina coast tonight.
Meanwhile, high pressure at the surface will build south into the Lone Star State, causing an influx of much drier air into the BRO CWFA.
Low-mid level warm air advection can also be expected over a southward moving Arctic cold front. Southeast MO will receive less accumulation due to warmer temperatures this afternoon resulting in a rain/snow mix and more melting of the snow upon impact. Unseasonably cold temperatures tonight, after passage of the Arctic cold front will result in slushy roads becoming icy.
The bitter cold will continue into Sunday, with highs failing to reach zero in north central and central WI, and only reaching the lower single digits above zero in eastern WI.
1030Z water vapor imagery continues to show the broad mid-level trough with its axis in the Great Lakes region, with our area within northwest flow. The main change has been to slow down PoPs through the morning as forecast soundings show the low levels slow to saturate. This generally puts 2-5 inches north of I-70 with the highest amounts along the state line, whereas areas south of I- 70 have a general 1-2 inches.
652 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2021 Temperatures this morning range from the single digits below zero in the southern Red River Valley, to the low 20s below zero in the northern Devils Lake Basin.
In addition, gusty north winds are expected along the coast and adjacent ridges this afternoon. High pressure centered over the Northeast Pacific will continue to dominate the sensible weather of Northwest California for the next several days.
Surface winds will subside with the approach of the high in an already cold environment from recent CAA, while the ridge will keep any high clouds to the west. The high will be centered over the CWA Sunday with another disturbance expected to pass to our south. Nothing has changed within any guidance to suggest a change to the overall forecast for this week, with a prolonged stretch of cold weather spurred by an upper level Low centered to our north in Canada.
We will see a glancing shot of cold air from the arctic high pressure system situated to the north of the region.
433 AM MST Sat Feb 6 2021 Current surface analysis shows arctic frontal boundary just south and west of the area, with high pressure centered over Alberta. Upper level analysis shows broad trough covering much of the central and eastern US, with a couple of low pressure systems over central Canada. Strong upper jet remains in place on the west side of the trough from southwest Canada to the high Plains.
variable winds and IFR/MVFR conditions look to spread across the CWA ahead of a cold front forecast to push southward into the CWA late afternoon and exit this evening. Behind the cold front. The better chances for accumulating snow may be across the higher terrain of northwest AR later today/this evening, especially above 1500 feet.
648 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2021 A frontal boundary will lift north into the area with widespread rain later today into tonight as low pressure develops to our south. High pressure then brings dry weather Sunday along with gusty winds.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 52 37 48 29 56 / 40 90 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 34 42 26 52 / 10 90 30 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 49 34 42 26 52 / 10 90 20 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 32 39 21 50 / 10 90 40 0 0 NC.
A line of low to mid level clouds continues to push southward along a weak cold front. A band of clouds ahead of this high continues to push across southern portions of the state this morning along a weak front.
440 AM MST Sat Feb 6 2021 An arctic air mass continues to rotate over the Upper Great Lakes region, leaving a good chunk of the CONUS under a deep trough. Meanwhile, the Intermountain West will remain under a tight pressure gradient along the upstream side of the trough, where an upper level jet resides. However, the jet's presence aloft will still generate gusty winds across higher terrain, causing blowing and drifting snow along ridgetops and mountain passes.
The better chances for accumulating snow may be across the higher terrain of northwest AR later today/this evening, especially above 1500 feet.
Arctic high pressure will bring dry and bitter cold weather to most of NE Montana. Another cold Arctic high pressure system builds into the area Sunday afternoon and night with even colder temperatures.
Later this evening, a weak cold front arrives from the north ahead of drier north winds while priming the stage for much cooler lows. As this drier surface ridging pulls away from the region on Sunday, winds will veer easterly which should serve to keep highs along our coastal counties a good five degrees or so cooler than points farther inland.
/issued 252 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2021/ Another weak cold front will move through the area today doing little other than cause winds to increase from the northwest, and hold off warmer temperatures until tomorrow.
Current surface analysis shows arctic frontal boundary just south and west of the area, with high pressure centered over Alberta. Upper level analysis shows broad trough covering much of the central and eastern US, with a couple of low pressure systems over central Canada. Strong upper jet remains in place on the west side of the trough from southwest Canada to the high Plains.
An arctic air mass continues to rotate over the Upper Great Lakes region, leaving a good chunk of the CONUS under a deep trough. Meanwhile, the Intermountain West will remain under a tight pressure gradient along the upstream side of the trough, where an upper level jet resides. However, the jet's presence aloft will still generate gusty winds across higher terrain, causing blowing and drifting snow along ridgetops and mountain passes.
The highest elevations will see around 2 feet of new snow in 24 hours.
An upper-level disturbance will move north of the region today, dragging a cold front across the forecast area this afternoon.
This upper-lvl feature will be able to utilize enough of the moisture from a trough of low pressure over the Ark-La-Tex region to squeeze out some snow.
A weak cold front tonight will veer winds NNE and bring much drier air, although there may be an opportunity for some fog at VCT by daybreak. Later this evening, a weak cold front arrives from the north ahead of drier north winds while priming the stage for much cooler lows. As this drier surface ridging pulls away from the region on Sunday, winds will veer easterly which should serve to keep highs along our coastal counties a good five degrees or so cooler than points farther inland.
A band of clouds ahead of this high continues to push across southern portions of the state this morning along a weak front.
An area of arctic high pressure remains over the Alberta/Saskatchewan Canada border early this morning, with a large upper-level low churning over north-central Canada.
850 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2021 A frontal boundary will lift north into the area with widespread rain later today into tonight as low pressure develops to our south. High pressure then brings dry weather Sunday along with gusty winds.
Additional snow accumulations through Sunday are expected to range from around 1 inch over east-central MT near Baker to about 3 to 5 inches over the lower elevations of Sheridan County, WY and 4 to 9 inches over south central MT.
429 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2021 Chilly and damp conditions acrs the area early this morning as overrunning moisture is lifted atop a relatively shallow airmass behind a cold front that is now situated acrs the cntl Gulf. KLCH radar shows some spotty patches of light rain acrs the area, with temperatures in the lower to middle 40s as of 4 AM. The pattern aloft is noted by a broad longwave trough acrs the CONUS per the latest WV imagery and UA analysis. Rain chcs will begin to taper off this evening as the mid/upper trough axis aloft shifts east, with drier air filtering into the region.
Although the rain will end a little after midnight tonight, persistent cloud cover only only weak caa will allow temperatures to bottom out slightly warmer than normal from the mid 30s north to the lower 40s southeast.
Satellite images and surface observations indicate areas of dense marine fog across the lower Texas coast including the Laguna Madre and portions of the nearshore waters this morning. Meanwhile, high pressure at the surface will build south into the Lone Star State, causing an influx of much drier air into the BRO CWFA.
233 AM PST Sat Feb 6 2021 Weak offshore flow and high pressure aloft off the West Coast will bring fair and mild weather again today.
310 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2021 The Arctic cold front will move into northern Kansas this morning before progressing southward thru the rest of the state during the early afternoon.
347 AM PST Sat Feb 6 2021 Weak offshore flow and high pressure aloft off the West Coast will bring fair and mild weather again today.
Ceilings will gradually improve to VFR from west to east late this afternoon as a cold front moves through. An upper-level disturbance will move north of the region today, dragging a cold front across the forecast area this afternoon.
417 AM MST Sat Feb 6 2021 An arctic air mass continues to rotate over the Upper Great Lakes region, leaving a good chunk of the CONUS under a deep trough. Meanwhile, the Intermountain West will remain under a tight pressure gradient along the upstream side of the trough, where an upper level jet resides. However, the jet's presence aloft will still generate gusty winds across higher terrain, causing blowing and drifting snow along ridgetops and mountain passes.
315 AM MST Sat Feb 6 2021 Current surface analysis shows arctic frontal boundary just south and west of the area, with high pressure centered over Alberta. Upper level analysis shows broad trough covering much of the central and eastern US, with a couple of low pressure systems over central Canada. Strong upper jet remains in place on the west side of the trough from southwest Canada to the high Plains.
Strong west to northwest winds will continue today and tonight in the high terrain of central NM and over the high plains of eastern NM.
As this low moves across northern Florida and up the SE U. Showers and storms will begin to slowly shift back southward then into the overnight through early morning Sunday with a few stronger storms still possible, as cold front shifts back south across the region. Front will return back toward the south as a cold front will approach this evening with winds veering southwesterly out ahead of it.
259 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2021 Snow will return Sunday with the passage of low pressure. Problematic accumulation will be confined to the West Virginia ridges. For portions of eastern OH and northwest PA, snow will primarily fall along and ahead of a weak cold front, with upper forcing tracking north of the area. For the southeast ridges, deeper moisture and closer proximity to the upper jet will allow for more notable accumulations, with the best focus over eastern Tucker where weak upslope will boost amounts. Low end advisory totals are expected for eastern Tucker County, though any slight shift of the low track NW could boost forecasted amounts (and any shift SE lower amounts).
Quasi-zonal flow will develop in the wake of the trough; however, with minimal lift clouds should clear briefly Sunday afternoon. Highs remain on track today with temps in the low 50s along the coast and upper 40s inland. Light rain was currently observed along the highway 84 corridor and more showers are expected to develop across the area this evening.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): A 500mb trough across the central United States this afternoon will begin to flatten out across the northern tier of the country tonight and become a broad upper level trough as it moves eastward. high pressure will build into the eastern half of Texas tonight but the bulk of the cold air will remain across the northern plains and the midwest United States. Some patchy fog will develop across the coastal sections of deep south Texas tonight before stronger northerly winds develop across the lower Texas coast late tonight. Winds will veer to the southeast Sun night providing warmer temperatures tomorrow night compared to tonight. Will continue to mention patchy fog along the lower Texas coast Sun night even as winds increase across the coastal sections tomorrow night.
Temperatures this morning range from the single digits below zero in the southern Red River Valley, to the low 20s below zero in the northern Devils Lake Basin.
827 AM PST Sat Feb 6 2021 Weak offshore flow and high pressure aloft off the West Coast will bring fair and mild weather today.
320 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2021 Models depict a subtropical jetstream developing over the region, as a low pressure system gradually deepens over the NE Gulf/Florida panhandle area. Maximum temperatures will warmer up a little with upper 70s/lower 80s expected across much of SoFlo.
Meanwhile across us, a cold front will shift east through the forecast area late tonight. This will cause slightly cooler drier air to advect into the region, as high pressure likewise builds south into the forecast area on Sunday.
1029 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2021 Snow will return Sunday with the passage of a low pressure system, with the highest accumulations in the West Virginia high terrain. For portions of eastern OH and northwest PA, snow will primarily fall along and ahead of a weak cold front, with upper forcing tracking north of the area. For the southeast ridges, deeper moisture and closer proximity to the upper jet will allow for more notable accumulations, with the potential need for an advisory for portions of WV.
The main impacts will be gusty northwest winds, with strongest winds over the higher terrain, and areas of blowing snow.
Once the front pushes south of the area, some drier and slightly cooler air will move into the area behind it as high pressure builds with the front stalling across south FL. The boundary lifts back to the north mid-week allowing for a few showers in the afternoons, with ridging then building in from the SE across the area.
One of these trough rolls off the Northern Rockies this morning, bringing the likelihood of some light snow today across the Plains into IA/IL.
High pressure will settle into the region late this afternoon, and center over the area tonight. The fog will quickly erode Sunday morning, followed by another sunny and mild day, as low pressure developing over West Texas will induce southerly return flow in the afternoon.
1100 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2021 18Z TAF issuance Cold front bringing gusty north winds across the terminals through this afternoon. /issued 252 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2021/ Another weak cold front will move through the area today doing little other than cause winds to increase from the northwest, and hold off warmer temperatures until tomorrow.
Temperatures will drop to right around freezing for most areas tonight.
104 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2021 MVFR to VFR conditions in place this afternoon with the low clouds gradually lifting. The front moves through Sunday, with high pressure building in through mid-week, then another boundary expected for the end of the week.
1201 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2021 Snow will return Sunday with the passage of a low pressure system, with the highest accumulations in the West Virginia high terrain. For portions of eastern OH and northwest PA, snow will primarily fall along and ahead of a weak cold front, with upper forcing tracking north of the area. For the southeast ridges, deeper moisture and closer proximity to the upper jet will allow for more notable accumulations, with the potential need for an advisory for portions of WV.