Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
238 AM CDT Sun Oct 3 2021 Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows weak upper level trough over eastern Minnesota/western Wisconsin. Underneath the upper level trough stratus deck/drizzle or light rain showers were occurring over southeast Minnesota/western Wisconsin per latest metars/KARX radar. Weak forcing/lift in association with the upper level trough will continue to produce the possibility of light rain showers mainly along and east of the Mississippi River today. A few storms are possible with the upper level trough passage. Surface/upper level ridge builds into the Upper Great Lakes Region Tonight into Monday. Cooler airmass is expected to advect into the forecast area today with 925mb temperatures cooling down to plus 9 to plus 11 degrees celsius by 12z Monday.
The larger scale players responsible for breaking down upper ridging include a Central Plains cut-off low opening east- northeast into the lower Great Lakes by Sunday- Sunday night, while a northern stream wave and attendant frontal boundary gradually sink southeast into area by late Sunday into Monday.
This activity comes as an upper trough is positioned over the Mid-South and a frontal boundary is draped across the Piney Woods of eastern Texas through central Arkansas. As this trough lingers over the region today, the cold front will push through.
146 AM MDT Sun Oct 3 2021 Digging upper troughing over the western CONUS will setup a massive upper ridge over central NOAM through most of this week, supporting warm and dry weather.
An upper level ridge is progged to overtake the Plains by Monday and is expected to amplify as it propagates eastward throughout the week. At the same time, an upper trough will begin to dig in over the Pacific Northwest. This ridge/trough scenario will induce southwesterly flow initially over the intermountain west that is then expected to slowly trek eastward into the northern Plains by the end of the week. In the meantime, the aforementioned large scale ridging will dominate the weather pattern for our region for the majority of the week. Although there are some signals that a H5 ridge building in over the southern Plains may disrupt this flow pattern, the general consensus from cluster analysis indicates that southwesterly flow aloft will likely set up over the region moving into the weekend.
A prefrontal trof should provide the focus for isolated SHRA during the afternoon for central and coastal terminals.
133 AM MDT Sun Oct 3 2021 High pressure that we have seen for the past few days continues, as a dry upper level ridge sets up across southeast Idaho.
The area will rebound well into the 70s today and to around 80 or the lower 80s Monday.
In this area, a strengthening axis of deformation in the vicinity of our developing low pressure system will support several rounds of heavy rain.
Models show widespread showers and storms will work across the area today as the trough axis approaches. On Monday, a bulk of upper level energy will be diving south out of the northern plains with a closed low developing over Arkansas by the evening.
A slight chance to chance of showers and thunderstorms will be possible as a weak vort max at 700mb moves over the area and combines with a prefrontal trough and the moisture already in place. A cold front will move over South Texas tonight, with weak east to northeasterly winds becoming light to moderate northeast to northerly winds. Drier air is the biggest benefit to this cold front as surface ridging builds in.
A ridge will then build over the Rockies overnight as the pattern becomes more blocky and amplified across the CONUS. This ridge will bring quiet conditions and push temperatures to above normal into the early week period.
The key meteorological feature this week will be a nearly stationary cutoff upper low across the Mid to Lower Mississippi Valley, well off to our southeast. This stagnant pattern will support multiple days of fairly light wind owing to rather weak MSLP gradient across the Central Plains west/northwest of the upper low. This pattern will keep warmer air pinched off to our west, such that daily temperatures during the week will be quite pleasant for the most part, near or slightly above climatological normal. Toward the end of this forecast period, the Mississippi Valley upper low will slowly decay and lift northeast, allowing a deeper trough of low pressure aloft out west to creep closer to the Rockies and adjacent High Plains.
A broad, complex upper level trough is in place over the region this afternoon as a lifting southern stream vort max partially phases with a digging northern stream trough. Meanwhile, at the surface, falling heights usher a surface cold front through the region this afternoon. Post-frontal lower tropospheric winds do begin to increase from west to east overnight and have likewise kept the highest fog probabilities east of the Mississippi River. Highs tomorrow will also hinge on how quickly (or if) the low stratus can clear out. A building upper-level ridge in the Northern Plains on Monday will result in clearing skies from west to east across our forecast area. ENS and NAEFS guidance forecast the strength of this ridge to be greater than 99th percentile when compared to climatology for this time of year.
The broad upper level trough accompanying this precipitation will slide southeast overnight into Monday, with ridging building in quickly behind it. Ridging will push into the upper Midwest through much of this week, squeezing its way over a cut-off low spinning over the lower Mississippi Valley. A glance through deterministic and ensemble solutions through mid October keeps the 540dam thickness line well to our north, and it seems winter lovers will have to be patient a little while longer before we see widespread below freezing temperatures and the first hint of snow. With slightly downslope flow and cooler water along the North Shore we have excluded the nearshore water from Two Harbors to Grand Portage from the fog advisory at this time, but this area may need to be added if fog is observed or models trends differently.
318 AM MDT Sun Oct 3 2021 A ridge of high pressure will bring a warm, dry and subsident airmass to the forecast area through tonight.
A warming trend will continue through Monday as high pressure holds over the region, sending daytime temperatures back to near normal.
536 AM CDT Sun Oct 3 2021 An upper level low centered over Missouri and Iowa very early this morning will continue to slide out of the region today. This will lead to optimum radiational cooling, and look for lows to drop into the mid and upper 40s - with coolest readings in the lowest elevations. For the upcoming week, models are in good agreement on an upper level ridge building into the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes region through mid week, while a cut off low develops over the lower Mississippi Valley out of the trough currently exiting our area.
(Issued 341 AM CDT Sun Oct 3 2021) Today and tonight: Low pressure over central Wisconsin early this morning will gradually shift east-southeast today. There will be plenty of moisture still in place today, with precipitable water values on the high end for early October per sounding climatology. Forcing doesn't look particulary strong today, though should be enough lift as the front/trough move through for more widespread showers/storms than yesterday. Temps today will be down from yesterday given cloud cover and precip chances with the low overhead, but still a few degrees above normal for early October.
Winds decreased quickly overnight as high pressure centered along the Mid-Atlantic coast progressed eastward and gradually weakened along the way. High pressure over the eastern United States and the adjacent Atlantic will build eastward over the next couple of days resulting in relaxing breezes across Keys waters over the next couple of days. Thereafter high pressure developing over the eastern United States will maintain gentle to moderate easterly breezes.
The broad upper level trough accompanying this precipitation will slide southeast overnight into Monday, with ridging building in quickly behind it. Ridging will push into the upper Midwest through much of this week, squeezing its way over a cut-off low spinning over the lower Mississippi Valley. A glance through deterministic and ensemble solutions through mid October keeps the 540dam thickness line well to our north, and it seems winter lovers will have to be patient a little while longer before we see widespread below freezing temperatures and the first hint of snow.
Widespread cooler temperatures are expected with chances of light mountain showers and breezy winds at times. Weak high pressure over northern California will continue into Monday with warm temperatures, hazy skies, light winds, and dry conditions expected. Smoke from wildfires in the foothills of the southern central valley has drifted north into the San Joaquin Valley, southern Sacramento Valley, and the Sierra foothills as of this morning aided by southerly mid level winds thanks to a low pressure system off the southern California coast.
456 AM MDT Sun Oct 3 2021 Weak high pressure will continue to remain over the area through the day Sunday keeping the area dry with near-average temperatures. As the upper-level ridge shifts eastward through the day Sunday, southwesterly flow will set up bringing breezy winds through the Wind Corridor from South Pass to Casper.
404 AM PDT Sun Oct 3 2021 Slightly warmer than normal temperatures are expected into Monday as plenty of sunshine is still able to heat up the ground across the Pacific Northwest. However, the lower sections of the atmosphere will still remain on the dry side Monday with low relative humidities. As an upper level low approaches the Pacific Northwest, winds around 2000 feet above ground level east of the Cascades will pick up.
629 AM EDT Sun Oct 3 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the upper Mississippi River Valley this morning with a closed low in the Canadian Maritimes and a ridge in the desert sw. The trough slowly moves east to the lower Great Lakes by 12z Mon.
We are going to be entering a dry period today as we enter a region of northwest flow from the upper trough that moved through yesterday. The models continue to show a piece of energy shoot southward on the backside of the trough, which begins the formation of an upper level cutoff low over the Lower Mississippi Valley. This low will keep us in northerly to northwesterly flow aloft through the early period. By the end of the week models are in pretty decent agreement that we will see height rises out ahead of an approaching trough on the U.
441 AM MDT Sun Oct 3 2021 Digging upper troughing over the western CONUS will setup a massive upper ridge over central NOAM through most of this week, supporting warm and dry weather.
/issued 323 AM CDT Sun Oct 3 2021/ Showers and thunderstorms continue across central AR into the Mid-South early this morning downstream of a mature, upper-level trough lifting across MO. Strong forcing for ascent is noted from the OH Valley through the Lower MS Valley, concomitant with height falls aloft. Additional redevelopment is possible this afternoon as the cold front moves across the area. As this trough settles over the area tomorrow, the cooler temperatures aloft may support isolated showers, but coverage should remain spotty at best.
348 AM MDT Sun Oct 3 2021 We'll have quiet weather the next few days as a ridge of high pressure moves over Wyoming.
718 AM EDT Sun Oct 3 2021 Surface front slowly drifts southward today as a cold front with scattered light rain showers continuing along the front. High pressure will build in by the middle of the week, finally allowing for drier weather. Decaying upper troughiness across the eastern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley will finally edge east Monday night and will continue to affect the area with scattered to numerous showers, most prevalent across the Adirondacks into central/southern VT.
607 AM CDT Sun Oct 3 2021 Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows weak upper level trough over eastern Minnesota/western Wisconsin. Underneath the upper level trough stratus deck/drizzle or light rain showers were occurring over southeast Minnesota/western Wisconsin per latest metars/KARX radar. Weak forcing/lift in association with the upper level trough will continue to produce the possibility of light rain showers mainly along and east of the Mississippi River today. A few storms are possible with the upper level trough passage. Surface/upper level ridge builds into the Upper Great Lakes Region Tonight into Monday. Cooler airmass is expected to advect into the forecast area today with 925mb temperatures cooling down to plus 9 to plus 11 degrees celsius by 12z Monday.
Satellite water vapor imagery early this morning depicts an upper level trough situated over Missouri early this morning, which is leading to an area of light to moderate showers over central Missouri. The upper level trough will continue to have influence over the region as it gradually digs southwards towards the lower Mississippi Valley into early this coming week and becomes a cut- off low through mid-week. At the same time, an elongated upper level ridge will build across the Plains states into the Great Lakes region with the upper low locked in under the ridge.
814 AM EDT Sun Oct 3 2021 Rain and isolated thunderstorms are expected throughout the day with a passing low pressure system. Scattered showers continue to move across our region this morning in advance of a broad upper-level trough. Convection should become more isolated by late Monday evening/night as high pressure builds to the west and drier air aloft prevails. The upper trough/low will close and cut-off over the lower Miss.
740 AM EDT Sun Oct 3 2021 A broad upper trough over the MS Valley will amplify through the short term. becoming a closed upper low by the end of the period. Models hint at a couple of impulses moving through the trough across GA.
324 PM CDT Sun Oct 3 2021 Midafternoon GOES water vapor imagery showed an upper low centered near Chicago. A trof axis extended south of this low through west TN and northwest TN. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were noted on radar in advance of the upper trof axis, primarily over north MS.
Monday should be a near repeat of Sunday, though will be slightly warmer as drier air allows for more efficient radiational warming during the day.
Something interesting that the 12z GFS shows occurring overnight, and is worth monitoring, is a vortmax developing on the southern periphery of a digging trough over northwest Mexico/southern Texas. A weak surface cold front, currently located across central TX, will ever-so-slowly drag southward this evening and during the day on Monday.
Monday should be a near repeat of Sunday, though will be slightly warmer as drier air allows for more efficient radiational warming during the day. With ridging building to our west and an upper closed low to our east, subsidence will continue to spread across the region. While we will have lots of sunshine, the northerly winds will help to maintain afternoon temps in the low to mid 80s through midweek. The other good news is that we will continue to enjoy the lower humidity with dewpoints staying in the 40s and 50s. A warming trend will begin late week and into the weekend as the upper ridge moves eastward and settles over our region.
1214 PM CDT Sun Oct 3 2021 We are going to be entering a dry period today as we enter a region of northwest flow from the upper trough that moved through yesterday. The models continue to show a piece of energy shoot southward on the backside of the trough, which begins the formation of an upper level cutoff low over the Lower Mississippi Valley. This low will keep us in northerly to northwesterly flow aloft through the early period. By the end of the week models are in pretty decent agreement that we will see height rises out ahead of an approaching trough on the U.
An area of high pressure at the surface will move out of western Kansas and into Oklahoma today as a trough of low pressure moves into northwest Kansas. BUFR soundings are forecasting boundary layer winds a little stronger than last night and the 500ft AGL temps are a couple of degrees warmer at 12Z Monday compared to temps at 12z Sunday.
1200 PM PDT Sun Oct 3 2021 Weak high pressure will remain over the region through at least Monday with a continuation of dry conditions and warmer than normal temperatures.
328 PM CDT Sun Oct 3 2021 Minimal impacts in the weather across the northern plains tonight through tomorrow night as 500mb ridging builds across central North America. Lows will be in the 40s again though probably a a few degrees warmer than this morning. Highs tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer than today with temps ranging from low 70s east to near 80 in the valley and eastern ND.
Widespread low clouds remain across far nern OK and nwrn AR, but all guidance suggests this should gradually diminish this afternoon, as short wave trough continues to translate away from the area.
218 PM CDT Sun Oct 3 2021 A mild and dry forecast remains in place as a mid-level ridge builds across the Northern Plains through the first half of this week. As the ridge builds, a cutoff low forms over the lower Mississippi River valley. Meanwhile, an even warmer airmass is expected to spread east across the forecast area for Monday afternoon, with half kilometer temps pushing a few degrees higher vs Sunday. In light of what occurred this morning, tonight's lows will again likely be just a touch under NBM, especially in the low lying areas. An upper level trough will dig along the west coast of Canada and into the Pacific Northwest through midweek. This will cause an upper level ridging over the region, which will produce warm and dry conditions.
Large scale subsidence due to a building ridge across the central Rockies will continue to bring dry conditions to the Panhandles throughout the short term forecast period. Going into the day tomorrow, H500 winds will be veer to more northerly and north- northeasterly due to a digging H500 trough across the lower Mississippi River Valley. With the amplitude of the ridge to the west building, H850 WAA will be slightly more pronounced tomorrow with high temperatures responding nicely. High temperatures tomorrow will range from the lower to upper 80s.
145 PM CDT Sun Oct 3 2021 (Issued 145 PM CDT Sun Oct 3 2021) Tonight through Monday night: Low pressure over southern Lake MI pulling away slowly. Still some hang back troughiness.
Tomorrow, an upper level ridge starts to build in over the area. Dew points are expected to decrease into the low 50s through the day as a negatively tilted trough drops into the Texarkana region, placing us in dry northerly flow aloft.
Otherwise, Sunday night and Monday will be much like the last 24 hours, only with warmer temperatures and the absence of smoke as we remain under the influence of upper level ridging. With the warming temperatures and dry conditions remaining, minimum humidity tomorrow afternoon is expected to fall into the low teens west to low 20s central. Our area will remain under upper level ridging through at least mid-week, maintaining dry and mostly clear conditions along with very warm temperatures for this time of year.
Moisture return starts up Monday night as low pressure off the coast of Southern California spreads Pacific moisture inland.
At the surface, a cold front will slowly move over the Mississippi Valley towards the region today through Monday.
Ahead of the clear slot, an area of showers and isolated thunderstorms has been increasing as modeled by the high-res guidance. As the clear slot shifts slowly east, the high-res guidance such as the hrrr takes most of the showers east of our region by about 15z. A deep upper level trough will extend from the Great Lakes back into the Ozarks on Monday. A cutoff low will develop in the trough over Arkansas late in the day on Monday and linger over the lower MS valley through midweek.
Sunny Monday with highs expected to be a few degrees warmer than today.
At 3 PM, upper level ridging was building over the region, resulting in abundant sunshine.
Widespread low clouds remain across far nern OK and nwrn AR, but all guidance suggests this should gradually diminish this afternoon, as short wave trough continues to translate away from the area. High pressure will build across the area today in the wake of the departing cold front. Early this week an upper level low will be carved out across the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Both the HREF and SREF had the low RH/winds 15 mph or greater combined probabilities for just a short time in the afternoon.
1105 AM MDT Sun Oct 3 2021 Upper ridging in over the area with a pretty dry and subsident airmass in place. A ridge of high pressure will bring a warm, dry and subsident airmass to the forecast area through tonight.
Wrap around moisture on the backside of the low has led to mostly cloudy skies locally, along with isolated showers and even a few weak storms. Temps were mild in the low to mid 70s, and dewpoints in the low to mid 60s were very high for early October. Forecast highs are in the low to mid 70s.
327 PM EDT Sun Oct 3 2021 High pressure will remain the primary feature through Monday. Through the overnight, model guidance shows the persistent coastal trough finally dissipating and leaving behind more uniform southerly flow by late tonight. The upper pattern will become more amplified early to mid week as a mid level trough digs into the Lower Mississippi River Valley and eventually closes off into a low.
1211 PM CDT Sun Oct 3 2021 An upper level low centered over Missouri and Iowa very early this morning will continue to slide out of the region today. This will lead to optimum radiational cooling, and look for lows to drop into the mid and upper 40s - with coolest readings in the lowest elevations. For the upcoming week, models are in good agreement on an upper level ridge building into the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes region through mid week, while a cut off low develops over the lower Mississippi Valley out of the trough currently exiting our area.
123 PM MDT Sun Oct 3 2021 Strong ridge hangs in there for the first half of the week.
250 PM MDT Sun Oct 3 2021 Continued drying of the air mass in place as well as a lack of support/focus with anticipated upper ridging, will provide dry weather during the period. Seasonably cool overnight lows, with some near freezing temps possible in the mountains valleys early Monday morning.
The broad upper level trough accompanying this precipitation will slide southeast overnight into Monday, with ridging building in quickly behind it. Ridging will push into the upper Midwest through much of this week, squeezing its way over a cut-off low spinning over the lower Mississippi Valley. A glance through deterministic and ensemble solutions through mid October keeps the 540dam thickness line well to our north, and it seems winter lovers will have to be patient a little while longer before we see widespread below freezing temperatures and the first hint of snow. Moisture from the low stratus and drizzle throughout the day will linger as temperatures decrease overnight.
Going with low to mid 40's for tonight given that the area was a few degrees warmer today and winds also appear to be a few mph stronger. Tomorrow, the ridge at 500mb moves west over the area and amplifies helping to lock the area into dry and warm conditions for tomorrow. At the start of the period, a narrow, upper ridge of high pressure spans from the southern and central Plains to the Great Lakes. On either side, a closed low spins, one over Baja California and the other centered over eastern Arkansas.
/Issued 740 AM EDT Sun Oct 3 2021/ A broad upper trough over the MS Valley will amplify through the short term. becoming a closed upper low by the end of the period. Models hint at a couple of impulses moving through the trough across GA.
1015 AM MDT Sun Oct 3 2021 Digging upper troughing over the western CONUS will setup a massive upper ridge over central NOAM through most of this week, supporting warm and dry weather.