Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
With convective temperatures around 100 there should be plenty of solar which should all combine to boost temperatures above average from valley west and a few degrees cooler east of the valley. Severe potential Tuesday will hinge on position of cold front.
An upper level ridge will bring sunny and warmer weather to Western Washington through Tuesday, except for some isolated morning low clouds.
428 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 A cold front will move through the region today.
Cloud cover and a moist atmosphere will lead to cooler temperatures today.
Tonight Through Tuesday A weakening ridge of high pressure and a weak cold front pushing into the region from the north will result in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms from northern into central Arkansas through this evening. On Tuesday, rain will start becoming more spotty as high pressure starts making a return. It will also be a little warmer, with temperatures a little above average.
Ridging and warm temperatures aloft will continue to inhibit shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon. Cooler temperatures, especially west of I-25, due to cloud cover and more shower and thunderstorm coverage compared to today.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): South Texas remains caught between the H5 ridge dominating the Four Corners region and the trough stretching across the western Gulf. Moisture will begin to increase overnight as an inverted trough draws moisture northward.
632 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 An upper level trough will remain over the eastern US. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than yesterday, but it will still be warm and humid with highs in the low 90s. The synoptic pattern holds an upper level trough over the eastern part of the nation with a ridge in the west. An upper level trough will cross the northeastern states through Tuesday.
417 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 An upper trough, located over the Great Lakes early this morning, will push slowly across Pennsylvania early this week. In its wake, high pressure will build southeast across the region by midweek.
Some drying today behind the weak prefrontal trough shifting to our south.
Today Through Tuesday Night The area of high pressure aloft will continue west of Arkansas today. However, this high begins moving back to the east tonight. Then on Tuesday, the high will continue to build over Arkansas. With the cold front over central Arkansas today, shower and thunderstorm chances will again be pretty good. Not expecting rainfall Tuesday night as subsidence will be increasing under the high. Temperatures today will be in the lower to mid 90s.
408 AM MDT Mon Jul 24 2017 Broad high pressure anchored over much of Colorado and Utah with a light westerly flow aloft. Appears there will be an up tick in moisture by tonight as the high pressure centered shifts a bit across New Mexico and Texas which will deliver more moisture into Colorado from the south and southwest. Temperatures will be even warmer over the plains today with readings in the mid to upper 90s as 700mb temperatures climb to +17c. And, with an increase in mid and high cloud cover, CAPES on the plains should stay on the low side.
Lows will range from the lower-mid 70s inland and upper 70s along the coast. High temperatures each day are expected to be in the lower 90s, which is right around normal, with heat indices in the upper 90s.
Cooler temps and improved chances for showers and thunderstorms beginning today. A cold front moves through the area a little after sunrise for the western zones, into Billings around 10am, and into eastern zones around noon. Front does look like it will come in as a couple of different waves, with a second push of cooler air bringing the gustier winds in the afternoon. Tuesday looks to be the coolest day in some time, with highs in the 80s, as an upper low tracks across southern Canada. Generally zonal flow aloft and no prolonged periods of downslope westerly winds in the low levels will keep temperatures near seasonal levels and bring at least a chance for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms to the area each day.
Highs will be mostly in the lower 90s with heat index values pushing toward the upper 90s.
642 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 The region will see a few days of drier and less humid conditions as high pressure dominates.
Upper level map analysis shows a long-wave trof positioned from the Great Lakes, southward into the southeast. South of this feature, a narrow mid level ridge axis extends from the Bahamas, west into the Gulf. This is consistent with solutions from short range guidance, ensembles, the high resolution HRRR and WRF-ARW. With the higher coverage of rains expected today and thickening cloud cover, highs mostly in the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s inland to mid to upper 70s coast.
Early this morning, surface analysis showed high pressure extending from MN back southwest into eastern NE. Mid tropospheric ridge remained centered over the Four Corners region, with the northern and central parts of the Plains in northwest flow. This should help a cold front push east through the Dakotas and MN.
401 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 Early morning satellite imagery together with surface obs and RAP13 analysis showed an area of high pressure centered over Lake Superior, with light clockwise flow in place across the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile expect today to be mostly sunny and slightly warmer than yesterday with southeasterly winds. Scattered to broken mid level clouds may persist for much of the day east of the EML poking into west central MN, and a dry airmass from the continental high pressure ridge over the Great Lakes will keep temperatures mild east of I-35.
414 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 An upper level trough will remain over the eastern US. Temperatures will be cooler than yesterday, but it will still be warm and humid with highs in the low 90s. The synoptic pattern holds an upper level trough over the eastern part of the nation with a ridge in the west. An upper level trough will cross the northeastern states through Tuesday.
253 AM MDT Mon Jul 24 2017 08z surface analysis had low pressure over southern SK with meandering frontal boundary south into eastern WY and then southeast into central NE. However, drier air moving in from the southwest will keep MLCIN on the high side, so coverage will be limited and focused on aforementioned boundaries. Tuesday, upper ridge flattens as surface boundaries consolidate across southern portions of the CWA.
Dew points are likely to range in the lower 60s through the period with temperatures remaining near or slightly below normal through tonight.
110 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 A stagnant mid-level trough will keep very humid conditions over the region today with a continued threat for showers and thunderstorms.
Regarding Tuesday, the H5 ridge is expected to strengthen over north Texas and this should limit shower activity to only the extreme far east coastal plains due to sea-breeze activity.
A surface cold front was oriented southwest to northeast across central Indiana early this morning. Aloft, we'll stay in northwest flow with mid-level height rises as an upper trough propagates over the Eastern Great Lakes. Cooler northerly flow will allow lows to range from the lower 60s to around 70 degrees Tuesday morning.
Warming is then expected during the second half of the week as an upper ridge builds back across California.
An upper ridge will also be across the southern Plains. A little more subsidence is expected across north central Florida on Tuesday due to the proximity of the upper ridge, with some drier low level air rotating eastward across the Gulf and into the region.
High pressure with deep subtropical ridge will be in place with east southeasterly wind flow.
Cooler conditions can be expected and Tuesday due to a deepening marine layer and increased onshore flow. Warming is then expected during the second half of the week as an upper ridge builds back across California. All of these factors will lead to cooler conditions today for nearly all location s-- especially those that are away from the coast.
Behind this feature, dry high pressure air is forecast to edge into the northeast corner counties generally from tonight through Tue night. By Wed, low level winds should begin to gain a southerly component and thus, moisture is progged to surge northeastward again, bringing dewpoints back to the lower half of the 70s across the entire region.
High pressure will provide dry weather through midweek. A cold front will push southeast from the OH Valley across the central Appalachians tonight.
559 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 An upper trough, located over the Great Lakes early this morning, will push slowly across Pennsylvania early this week. In its wake, high pressure will build southeast across the region by midweek.
257 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 Upper low spinning near Georgian Bay will open as it drops southeast through Ontario today. Cool flow off Lake Huron will supplement low- level moisture lingering behind a cold front, while dry air remains in place in the mid-levels. High pressure will expand into the area tonight and last through late Tuesday, bringing dry and quiet weather. This will ultimately drive a cold front and an area of low pressure across the region, with models still struggling to resolve placement of the low track and timing of the front.
300 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 A Piedmont trough will extend from Virginia into South Carolina through Tuesday.
134 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 Upper level ridging will continue to weaken across the area as the upper level trough digs over the eastern US.
339 AM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017 While the upper ridge over the southeastern U. trough may send several small waves to the northwest of Oklahoma, on the northwest side of the upper ridge, while a front approaches from the north later Tuesday.
154 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Cool Canadian high pressure builds over the northeast states and New England this evening, and gradually ridges south into the local area from Monday through midweek. Aloft, the setup is starting to trend towards a blocking pattern with an amplifying ridge from the central Gulf of Mexico to the Great Lakes with the trough now cutoff well off the mid-Atlc/NE coast. Good radiational cooling conditions expected overnight and have sided on the low edge of guidance for lows tonight. Some of typically coldest rural areas along and W of the I-95 corridor will bottom out in the lower 40s. On Monday, the latest GFS/NAM/ECMWF are in good agreement with the upper ridge axis amplifying along or just west of the spine of the Appalachians.
317 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Dry high pressure is expected to dominate the weather pattern through the week. As of 230 AM Monday: an upper ridge will continue to amplify across area, keeping a strong low-level inversion in place. As of 215 AM EDT Monday: The weather continues to look dry with slightly above normal temps through mid-week courtesy of high pressure. The large upper anticyclone over the eastern United States will gradually morph through the period, getting stretched more SW-to-NE on Tuesday and Tuesday night as the center of the anticyclone retrogrades across the lower MS River basin and Srn Plains while an upper trof moves across the Nrn Plains and upper Gt Lakes.
120 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 High pressure will provide mostly clear skies with a warming trend through Tuesday.
630 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 High pressure in control through mid week. Portions of the Tygart and Greenbrier Valleys have once again dipped to freezing or just below at this early morning hour. It will be a few degrees warmer today, especially in favored southeast flow downsloping areas. Upper level ridge builds overhead tonight. It should be a few degrees warmer tonight, though still chilly across the mountain valleys.
Deep layer ridging north of the area will suppress most shower activity over the area, except out over the gulf. Max temps will be in the lower to mid 80s each day with lows in the mid to upper 60s.
241 AM PDT Mon Oct 2 2017 A series of passing disturbances will maintain cooler than normal temperatures and breezy periods across our area through the middle of the week. Temperatures will then warm into the weekend as high pressure builds over the region. Northwest flow continues over central California between a northeast Pacific ridge and an upper low over the northern Rockies and Great Basin.
345 AM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017 WV imagery shows an upper trough centered over NE MT, w/a secondary trough digging down the west side of it, and forecast to close over NoCal by 06Z Tue. To the east, an upper ridge covers the Gulf Coast states and the Gulf itself. The low- lvl theta-e ridge runs from the Big Bend area NNE thru the Texas Panhandle, and hi-res models suggest that there will be at least an isolated chance of convection developing along this corridor today and tonight.
121 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 High pressure will be in control of our weather for the next several days, bringing sunny days and clear nights with valley fog. Mainly clear skies will continue Monday night though not as cold with lows in the lower to middle 40s. Amplified ridge across the region Tuesday and early Wed will act to keep weather conditions quiet with above average temperatures and morning valley fog.
424 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Marine Above normal temperatures return for Today and Tuesday as south flow pumps warmer air into the region.
246 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 High pressure in control through mid week. It will be a few degrees warmer today, especially in favored southeast flow downsloping areas. Upper level ridge builds overhead tonight. It should be a few degrees warmer tonight, though still chilly across the mountain valleys.
Strong high pressure will remain to the North this period, with a continued onshore flow. The mid/upper level high pressure will provide dry air aloft over the region, keeping showers that develop shallow. At the surface, high pressure over the northeast will strengthen and stretch down the eastern seaboard.
330 AM PDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Cooler weather with breezy north winds early this week. Clear skies across interior NorCal early this morning as the West Coast trough continues to evolve. MFR-SAC gradient remains around 11 mbs and RNO-SAC is up around 4 mbs resulting in breezy north to northeast winds gusting 30-40 mph along the west side of the Sacramento Valley, across the higher terrain of Lake County and across the higher elevations of the northern Sierra Nevada.
422 AM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017 The line of thunderstorms that developed along the cold front has diminished early this morning and the front has stalled out over south central Nebraska/north central Kansas.
should kick in late tonight as the upper level trof continues to dig across the northern Rockies. Stagnant rex blocking pattern across the west coast of North America will yield a cooler than normal week ahead along with periodic bouts of shower chances.
235 AM PDT Mon Oct 2 2017 A deepening trough over the West will result in cooler, breezy weather through Tuesday along with a deep marine layer.
Convectively reinforced cold front is moving through the area at this time. Upper trough and associated surface cold front will result in thunderstorm chances tonight. Convection will result in cold front surging south across the forecast area this evening with a brief period of gusty north winds immediately following frontal passage, then becoming light overnight. Lows will range from the lower 40s in northeast Colorado to the upper 50s in north central Kansas. North of the front, upslope flow into the higher terrain will result in scattered high based storms in northeast Colorado by late afternoon. with highs ranging from the lower 60s in northeast Colorado to around 80 in the Hill City to Tribune areas.
KCDS broke out this afternoon and the lower clouds will stay mostly to the west overnight, however MVFR will be possible between 12-16Z. Even with the sunshine tomorrow, kept on the low end of guidance for highs with the abundance of moist ground. One point of agreement is a ridge of high pressure across the southeastern U. Where the models were beginning to hone in on a midweek front and resolution on the fate of a low pressure across the northwestern U. The GFS splits the low into 2 lobes. The Euro splits the low into 2 lobes as well.
Vertical profiles would support a mix with snow over the higher terrain of the southwest part of the state. For Tuesday with the H5 low / trough overhead temperatures will be slow to rise and mid 40s (20 degrees below normal) should do it west, with pockets of light rain area wide.
159 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Dry conditions are expected through the middle of the week as high pressure influences the weather across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
144 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 High pressure will bring moderating temperatures and dry weather for the new work week. Many of the zones/counties across the north and west have reached freezing last night - a list is included below in the climate section. Temperatures will also continue to moderate as the high moves off to the NE and we start to see a milder southerly flow develop.
358 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 High pressure will continue to provide dry and warm weather through Tuesday.
An upper level ridge will move inland for dry and mild conditions this week.
Then the pattern changes with a slow moving cold front moving into the region late Tuesday night.
655 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 High pressure will continue to provide dry and warm weather through Tuesday.
Also, surface-925 mb ridging is keeping an east-southeast flow advecting dew points in the 40s. With the 5h high shifting northward later tonight, the high clouds will start to exit, while the surface ridging magnifies low-mid level dry air advection. This should lead to a clearing of the lower-mid level clouds from east to west beginning late tonight. The clearing trend should continue on Tuesday as surface pressures increase over the lower Appalachians.
403 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Dry weather is expected through mid week under the influence of high pressure across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
The upper low continues to take shape along the MT/SK border early this morning, while at the same time, clockwise flow aloft is developing to its north. As the low continues to deepen, this area of stronger lift is forecast to shift south into Central Montana and will be enhanced by a northerly upslope flow. The upper level low from earlier in the week will be exiting the region to the northeast. At the same time, a new slow moving upper level low will be developing over CA and will then slowly move northeast towards southwest MT.
Stacked low pressure system located over the northeast corner of the state this morning, with a trof stretching southwest to another upper low over Idaho. Expect some separation of the upper lows today, changing the orientation and bringing precipitation and cold air through central Montana and into the western portion of the cwa. Exception will be in the higher terrain (above 4k ft) of the Little Rockies which should start to see snow along with accumulations by the afternoon. Proximity of the low will also keep winds well mixed. High pressure moves into eastern Montana behind the departing low Tuesday night.
This is causing evap cooling to take place where the lower dew pt temps are able to take hold which will be over at least the northern half of the area.
428 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 High pressure will bring moderating temperatures and dry weather for the next several days.
118 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather through the middle of the week. Strong upper level ridging will promote another sunny day with warming temperatures. High pressure will result in continued dry weather through the period with a warming trend in temperatures.
Area of low pressure responsible for generating the showers/thunderstorms heading north-northeast toward the forecast area is lifting through western NE at this time. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower 40s northwest to the mid 50s east. High temperatures on Monday will be in the lower to mid 60s as cooler air settles in behind the exiting frontal boundary. We will start this time period with what we've been dealing with for quite some time now, a 500mb ridge over the eastern U. and a significant trough over the rest of the nation. While the northern portions of the 500mb trough over eastern MT at 00Z Tuesday crosses western ND Tuesday, and ejects northeast across Canada Tuesday night, the southern end of the trough will remain over the western states.
S/SE winds of around 10mph with occasional gusts to around 20mph have kept early morning temperatures considerably warmer than in recent days. With abundant afternoon sunshine and southerly winds gusting to 20-25mph, high temperatures will climb into the lower to middle 80s. Another breezy and warm day will be on tap for Tuesday before a slowly-approaching cold front brings scattered showers and thunderstorms into the area for the middle and end of the week. Models are still having trouble resolving the pattern change as a northern stream wave gradually flattens the unseasonably strong upper ridge initially in place across the eastern CONUS.
355 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 High pressure extending into the area from the northeast will shift slowly to the east over the next few days. Upper ridge axis just to the west of our forecast area (FA) will build east some today. Upper level ridge will remain rather strong and centered just west of the area.
556 AM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017 An upper level ridge is located just east of the area early this morning leaving the area in an upper level southwest flow. This has result in the pressure gradient tightening across the region behind the low and high pressures. The southerly wind is ushering in a warmer airmass as early morning temperatures are currently in the middle 60s to around 70. The warm air mass will remain over the area on Tuesday, but there will be more cloud cover resulting in highs being a few degrees cooler than today with readings in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
301 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 The forecast for the near term remains the same for the residents of eastern Kentucky, as a strong ridge of high pressure is expected to bring dry and pleasant weather to the area for the foreseeable future. The mostly clear and calm conditions on tap for tonight will allow temperatures to fall to chilly readings ranging from the mid 40s in valleys to the lower 50s on ridges.
238 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Canadian high pressure remains established over the region into the middle of the week. High pressure centered over the area this morning will stay in place through tonight.
654 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Cool Canadian high pressure gradually ridges south into the local area through midweek. Aloft, the setup is starting to trend towards a blocking pattern with an amplifying ridge from the central Gulf of Mexico to the Great Lakes. Mid/upper level ridge axis continues to build along or just west of the spine of the Appalachians.
Trough continues to reside over the western half of the U. Trough slowly pushes northeast out of the area by midweek with dry conditions returning for the end of the week. The cold front that passed through the area yesterday has made its presence know as temperatures this morning are close to or below freezing. Daytime highs today will be 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday.
230 AM EDT Mon Oct 02 2017 Canadian high pressure will extend into central North Carolina from the north through mid week. -GIH Ridging both sfc and aloft will continue right through this part of the forecast.
SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday) Overall we are looking at a halfway decent day across South Texas with mid-level ridging in place overhead. A major slug of Gulf moisture comes surging in late tonight with PWATs topping out around 2" as mid-level ridging shifts westward. Strengthening onshore flow will allow more water build-up and we could approach 2 feet MSL during the high tide cycle late tonight/Tuesday morning.