Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
912 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE EFFECTS OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. WITH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND GENERALLY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE MIDLEVELS LEADING TO A BIT OF SUPPRESSION. WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS IN STORE FOR MONDAY.
WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO RIDGE WEST ACRS THE NRN GULF. WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LEFT OVER CNTL LA AND THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. THE 700 MB RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF BY MONDAY. FOLLOWED BY A STRENGTHENING RIDGE AT 500 MB BY MIDWEEK.
1223 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION MONDAY.
702 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY.
1116 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. VISUAL LOOPS SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS BURNING OFF QUICKLY NOW WITH JUST SOME SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDINESS DRIFTING NORTH AROUND THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY. THE HIGH RES MODELS TRY AND DEVELOP SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION DOWN OVER THIS REGION AND DRIFT IT INTO MY FAR SWRN ZONES BETWEEN ABOUT 4-8 PM. HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER/THICKEN-UP FROM THE SW TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS A WELL-DEFINED /ALBEIT WEAK - 1016MB/ WAVE A OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT MOVES NE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
AS EXPECTED, TEMPERATURES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH CURRENT TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NEAR CUT BANK TO THE LOW 60S NEAR DILLON, WITH MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE LOW-MID 50S. ALL THIS WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROF THAT IS MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH.
1139 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT A LEFT OVER SHEAR AXIS REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA. CONVECTION SHOULD DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST ND INTO SOUTHWEST MT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT NEAR THE FRONT AND TROUGH FROM THE LOW INTO CENTRAL NE. ATTENTION TURNS TO COLD FRONT/LOW. LATEST WATER VAPOUR LOOP HAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND THEN ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDERS OF MT/ND. WHICH WILL PUSH COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST REACHES OF CWA THIS MORNING. TORNADO THREAT IS THERE GIVEN NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF CWA TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND IT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ON TAP.
As forcing associated with the upper trough pushes east, the whole area of convection will follow as the cold front pushes to the southeast. The low level jet will strengthen as the sun sets and this will enhance the low level shear and helicity for for storms to work with. Much cooler and drier air will move into the area in the wake of the cold front. The next chance for precipitation may then come by the end of the week as the upper ridge flattens out over the west. These storms will then surge to the southeast along/ahead of a cold front.
1004 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST. BUT RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE CENTER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS READINGS. THIS WILL CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PROVIDE SOME EXTRA LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MOST OF THE STRONGER DYNAMICS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND LIFTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. STILL LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE RIDGE REPOSITIONS TO THE WEST AND A TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. MUCH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SHOULD EVENTUALLY FILTER INTO PARTS OF OUR AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
955 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
1005 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AND STALL ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS.
REMAINDER OF FCST SHOULD BE IN GOOD SHAPE AS GFE GRAPHICS CURRENTLY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL COME BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE.
1055 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
SO WOULD EXPECT THAT THE COMPLEX /ESPECIALLY THE PORTION NORTH OF THE APEX NEAR THE HIGHWAY 412 CORRIDOR/ WOULD EITHER MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR EVEN STRENGTHEN A BIT PRIOR TO SUNRISE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.
EXPECT OTHER LOCATIONS WILL ALSO HIT THE HIGH WIND CRITERIA AS THE FRONT PASSES. WHEN IT IS SUSPECTED THAT GUSTS INTO THE HIGH WIND RANGE WILL AGAIN SURFACE. STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EASTWARD AND IS NOW INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES EASTWARD OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT IS NEAR A KTPH-KVEL LINE THIS MORNING AND HAS CAUSED A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN IN TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BUILDING OF THE RIDGE WILL ALSO GIVE THE FLOW ALOFT A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS TO MVFR AND DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /ISSUED 419 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015/ HEIGHT FIELDS WILL EDGE UPWARD TODAY DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER HIGH IN SOUTHWEST NM. SATELLITE SHOWS ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THIS HIGH/S DOMAIN THAT WHEN COUPLED WITH A WEAKLY UNSETTLED NW FLOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND GRADUALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM AB/SASK THROUGH WESTERN MT/CENTRAL OR. WITH UP TO 40M HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL JET OF UP TO 90KT WAS NOSING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE US-CANADA BORDER. DRAGGING A SEASONALLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS. AND FREEZING LEVELS IN THE 13KFT RANGE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
704 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AND STALL ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS.
CHILLY AIR IS POURING INTO MONTANA BENEATH A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. A LITTLE SPOKE OF ENERGY ORIGINATING FROM THE MAIN TROUGH WILL APPROACH NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
626 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015 STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EASTWARD AND IS NOW INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES EASTWARD OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.
CONCUR WITH THE GFS WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER PATTERN WHICH TRANSITIONS FROM A WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHTS/WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CWA TODAY TO AN INCREASE IN HEIGHTS. AND THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD GENERATE ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION TODAY. ANTICIPATE THAT THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WL LIMIT CONVECTION SUNDAY.
/ISSUED 422 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015/ RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THIS MORNING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE NEXT CHANGE COMES EARLY SUNDAY WHEN A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO OKLAHOMA. CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PUT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES LESS THAN THOSE OF TODAY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 80S MOST OF THE WEEK, WHILE THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS WEST OF OKLAHOMA.
701 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE SUNDAY.
A ridge of high pressure will be over the region through the period. A low pressure area will drop southward from Alaska to just off the coast of British Columbia to help prevent the ridge from building stronger.
439 AM PDT SAT AUG 22 2015 High pressure will build in and winds will subside. The cooler air and lighter winds should help regional firefighting efforts, but the light winds and strong morning inversions this weekend may create areas of poor air quality due to high concentrations of wildfire smoke.
956 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL LAST THOUGH THE WEEKEND.
722 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 UPDATE/AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PROVIDE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FCST TO GO NEGATIVE TILT LEADING TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ENHANCED BY JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 86 69 89 71 / 30 20 30 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 86 67 87 69 / 10 10 30 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 86 68 87 70 / 10 10 30 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 85 63 86 64 / 10 10 30 30.
617 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015 VFR UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THIS FORECAST /12Z SUN/ WHEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL RAISE THE THREAT FOR MVFR CIGS AND PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED TSRA. /ISSUED 419 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015/ HEIGHT FIELDS WILL EDGE UPWARD TODAY DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER HIGH IN SOUTHWEST NM. SATELLITE SHOWS ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THIS HIGH/S DOMAIN THAT WHEN COUPLED WITH A WEAKLY UNSETTLED NW FLOW.
SECONDARY TROUGH TO SETUP ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.
634 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015 06Z SFC DATA HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN MOVING INTO THE FAR WESTERN AREAS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
HAVE KEPT THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA BY LATE AFTERNOON THERE.
1111 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 HYDRO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PROVIDE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FCST TO GO NEGATIVE TILT LEADING TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
MOIST CONVECTION INCLUDE SOME DRY POCKETS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE AND A WEAKLY DIFLUENT PREVAILING LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.
/ISSUED 431 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015/ (Today and Tonight) Hot and dry conditions will prevail today as the upper level ridge dominates.
947 AM MDT SAT AUG 22 2015 SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROF THAT BROUGHT SOME WELCOME RAINFALL AND SWEPT OUT MOST OF THE SMOKY CONDITIONS LAST NIGHT IS NOW WELL INTO EASTERN MT AND MOVING STEADILY TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. BECAUSE THE COLD FRONT SWEPT MORE EAST THAN SOUTH, STILL HAVE FAIR AMOUNT OF SMOKE OVER BEAVERHEAD/MADISON/ PARTS OF GALLATIN COUNTIES WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTN.
1226 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY.
904 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AIR FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
1002 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE SUNDAY.
WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THAT TROUGH WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH HERE.
950 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S LOOK GOOD ALSO. REPLACED BY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT THAT WILL CUT BACK ON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SE CONUS WILL BUILD WWD BY SUN. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY FCST TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 90S TODAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE FCST TO INCREASE AGAIN MON AS A DEEPENING ERN CONUS TROF RESULTS IN A CDFNT SAGGING INTO THE REGION.
1038 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SEASONABLE AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
IT WILL PROVIDE A MINOR FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS BEFORE IT IS PICKED UP BY THE NEXT TROUGH AND PUSHED SOUTH. THIS TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH A BIT AS IT MOVES ACROSS MONTANA AND INTO N DAKOTA TODAY. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL PLUNGE MORE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY BUT STILL MAKES A LITTLE PROGRESS INTO NW CO AND NE UT THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT. LEESIDE TROUGH AND INCOMING COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE PANHANDLES DURING THIS PERIOD. THOUGH AXIS OF THE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST INTO OKLAHOMA.
1037 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
741 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY FILL BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE LOCAL WEATHER. SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS NE INTO NEW YORK. MOST OF SUNDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR LINGERING BEHIND THE HIGH. DEW POINTS WILL ONLY GET INTO THE LOW 60S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE 70S AND DEW POINTS DROP INTO THE LOW 50S.
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS SOMEWHAT ON TIME OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BASED ON LOW/COLD FRONTAL POSITION BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WILL BE FROM IMMEDIATE VALLEY AREA EASTWARD. COOLER DAY WITH RAIN SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE FA. WITH CLOUDS AND COOLER COLUMN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 60S.
942 AM PDT SAT AUG 22 2015 High pressure will build in and winds will subside. The cooler air and lighter winds should help regional firefighting efforts, but the light winds and strong morning inversions this weekend may create areas of poor air quality due to high concentrations of wildfire smoke. A good concentration of wildfires in the southern ID Panhandle will keep the Lewiston Area and Palouse rather smokey as well where the low level winds have more of a southeasterly orientation to them. /SVH 12Z TAFS: High pressure will build over the region so the main impact to aviation concerns will be smoke from area wildfires.
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW/MID 80S. FALL-LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN PA CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE OHIO VALLEY. BY TONIGHT THE HIGH WILL HAVE RETREATED TO THE EAST, AND WE'LL MOISTEN UP IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHANCES AND TIMING OF PRECIP ARE THE MAIN QUESTION IN THIS FORECAST, AS THE COLD FRONT WILL STILL PUSH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVEN AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER FAR WESTERN ONTARIO.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND TOMORROW FOR DRY AND WARM WEATHER.
1022 AM MDT SAT AUG 22 2015 COLD FRONT HAS NOW CLEARED CWA WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND IT. WITH SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY AND TEMPS NEAR THE FREEZING MARK IN THE BLACK HILLS. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY ON SUNDAY AS BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE WESTERN CONUS. WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY BACK INTO THE REGION.
1235 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP DRY AND QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. WITH TEMPS RISING SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY TO THE LOW AND MID 80S. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD. NEARING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH A UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE EXTENDED.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST COMMON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
1244 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AND STALL ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN THE FAR NORTH TO THE LOW 90S IN THE SOUTH.
1006 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY FILL BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS NE INTO NEW YORK. MOST OF SUNDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR LINGERING BEHIND THE HIGH. DEW POINTS WILL ONLY GET INTO THE LOW 60S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE 70S AND DEW POINTS DROP INTO THE LOW 50S.
1137 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AIR.
REPLACED BY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT THAT WILL CUT BACK ON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SE CONUS WILL BUILD WWD BY SUN. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY FCST TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 90S TODAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE FCST TO INCREASE AGAIN MON AS A DEEPENING ERN CONUS TROF RESULTS IN A CDFNT SAGGING INTO THE REGION.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH MT. WITH COLD FRONT JUST MOVING INTO THE CWA. WITH SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY AND TEMPS NEAR THE FREEZING MARK IN THE BLACK HILLS. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY ON SUNDAY AS BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE WESTERN CONUS. WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY BACK INTO THE REGION.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF REGION AND PROVIDING AN ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
756 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY.
832 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
744 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SEASONABLE AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
712 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
140M/12HR AND A 110KT JET CORE COMING INTO THE BASE OF THE 250 MB TROUGH. THE LOW-LEVEL 0-3KM SHEAR DOESNT SEEM MUCH MORE THAN MODERATE AT 25 KTS IN MOST GUIDANCE.
720 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE SUNDAY.
500MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY SO EXPECTING LOTS OF SUN. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO BE AT LEAST 10F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THU NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON FRI.
418 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
Low temps still look to bottom out in the low to mid 30s with the coldest locations in the Bluegrass. The high pressure currently centered over Lake Michigan will shift eastward overnight. This will put the northeastern portion of the forecast area closest to the high pressure. Highs will top out in the lower 60s in the north and the upper 60s in the south.
401 AM MDT WED APR 13 2016 POSITIVE TILT UPR LVL S/W RIDGE WILL MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS COLORADO TODAY. LOCAL AIRMASS WILL WARM AND DRY OUT AS MID- LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH PASSAGE OF THE RIDGE. COVERAGE WILL BE NOTICABLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AND MOSTLY 50S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH A SPRINKLING OF LOWER 60S ON THE VALLEY FLOORS.
111 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI. TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. TAKING SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT WITH RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE TAKING FULL FORCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S WEST OF THE RIVER WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20 MPH. MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THROUGH THURSDAY FOR QUIET AND WARMER CONDITIONS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 40S. MID-LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS.
AND THURSDAY SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING IS COMBINING WITH A HEALTHY WARM AIR ADVECTION TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE STATE. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEPARTS EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z TO SUPPORT PCPN CHANCES FOR THE MORNING HOURS. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR A RETURN TO MILDER TEMPERATURES.
BETTER CHANCES OF SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN FOR THURSDAY AS WEAK S/W RIDGING SKIRTS ACROSS THE REGION.
An upper level low over eastern New Mexico will be the next weather maker for the area. This upper level low is forecast to move through the southern plains and be situated over northwest Arkansas by this evening. Will also see an increase in mid to upper level clouds moving in from the southwest in advance of the upper level low pressure system. Once the upper low reaches Arkansas.
WITH WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN PCPN AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH. EASTERN AREAS COOLER WITH COMBINATION OF ONSHORE SE WINDS AND CLOUDS LINGERING LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ALL MODELS KEEPING A POCKET OF MID- LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER SRN WI THAT BECOMES REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW WITH THE DEVELOPING RIDGE AXIS. WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM DRY THE MID LEVELS OUT WITH A BIT MORE FLOW IN A LESS-AMPLIFIED RIDGE.