Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND FROM THE COST TODAY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE RETROGRADING INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA BY THIS EVENING. THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE LIKELY RANGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA. WITH THE LOWEST POPS CAPPED TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ACROSS JEFF DAVIS AND COFFEE COUNTIES IN GEORGIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST.
1050 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COOLER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN U. THE RIDGE WILL PUSH EASTWARD SOME TONIGHT.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST DEEP INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHORT WAVE UNDULATIONS HAVE ROUNDED THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH. THESE CONVECTIVE ENHANCING FEATURES HAVE PLENTY OF FUEL TO WORK WITH IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
629 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015 COOL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS EARLY TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS SLIDING EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL SLOPE. THE QUESTIONS ON WHERE THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS AND WHERE IT MOVES. INSTEAD OF TRACKING SOME LARGE JET OR WATCHING THE SLOW EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LOW EXITING A DEEP TROF. LOWS UNDER THE INCREASED CLOUDS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN PAST NIGHTS. GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.
1144 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THOUGH THE GFS HAS BEEN NAILING THE LOW TEMPERATURES THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE COOLER NAM'S STRONG RADIATIONAL AFFECTS.
1020 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY TODAY AND TONIGHT.
718 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 UPDATE/AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPERATURES TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE SFC RIDGING TODAY A MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST IS NOT A SLAM DUNK. RELATED TO THERMAL TROUGHING STILL EXTENDING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM OUR OLD UPPER LOW IN ERN CANADA.
KREIN EARLY MORNING SURFACE MAP INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR THE DHT AND GUY TAF SITES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE DHT AND GUY TAF SITES LATE IN THIS FORECAST. AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD FORM THIS AFTERNOON NEAR AND AHEAD OF A WEAK LEE TROUGH IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO BUT BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE EAST INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA UNTIL AFTER 00Z. WEAKENING COLD FRONT SHOULD BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY AND SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH. RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST AND WEAKENS BY MID WEEK AND DEEPER MOISTURE ENCROACHES ON THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS TODAY THEN A FEW DEGS WARMER FRIDAY AS UPPER FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH.
AS THIS LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY THIS EVENING. IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER WEST TEXAS. /ISSUED 325 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TIGHTLY WOUND UPPER LOW BETWEEN OKLAHOMA CITY AND MCALESTER MOVING EAST TOWARDS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS LOW MAY EVEN PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FANNIN OR LAMAR COUNTY.
A COMPACT STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND INITIATE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ARKANSAS EARLY THIS EVENING. AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS ANALYZED ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL OK WITH A MID-LEVEL WESTERLY JET MAX PUNCHING INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS. WITH A NOTABLE WIND SHIFT/PSEUDO WARM FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM ADF TO LLQ.
1038 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. PRESSURE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
20Z water vapor imagery shows the closed upper low over central OK moving to the east. Surface obs indicated there was a low pressure center associated with the upper closed low over the red river valley, and within a trough of low pressure extending through the northern plains. As the upper low continues to move off to the east, forcing for precip should diminish over the forecast area. But the better vertical motion holds off until the evening and models are limited with the low level moisture. By Monday night, a mid-level trough will be negatively tilted across the northern Rockies, with models showing it quickly advancing eastward into the north central U.
1136 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE MARITIMES MONDAY.
PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL SHOULD SEE STRENGTHENING OF THE RELATIVELY MILD SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING ACRS UTAH. WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25-45 KTS WILL POTENTIALLY PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW ON THE HIGH PASSES CREATING HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
916 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016 WARM TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH A SERIES OF CROSSING LOW PRESSURE AREAS. RESULTING IN UPPER RIDGING INCREASING OVER OUR AREA.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST MUCAPE IS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES IN. EVEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT. COOLER TEMPS AND POSSIBLY WINTRY PCPN.
WEAK TROUGH DEPICTED IN SURFACE ANALYSES OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND LATEST NEXRAD 88D SHOWS A BAND OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MOVING ONTO THE NATURE COAST. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT (-10C TO -12C) AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP. NO SIG AIRMASS CHANGE AS POST TROF SOURCE REGION IS THE ARKLATEX/NW GOMEX.
Upper low over srn OK at 1945z will move east, and be over nrn AR by 06z. With the approach of the upper low, will continue with our increasing chance of shra/tsra this evening, moving east across the area through the overnight.
912 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE MARITIMES MONDAY.
607 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016 Closed upper low spinning over central Oklahoma this afternoon will send scattered showers into the area through the evening. This activity will gradually clear out overnight as heating is lost and the upper low kicks out into the Lower Ohio Valley. 850 hPa winds rising as high as 15C should allow temperatures to rise into the lower to middle 70s across the area, assuming any morning clouds can scatter out in time.
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OVER SASK AND WILL MOVE ACROSS MAN TONIGHT.
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL LIKELY KEEP ATMOSPHERE WELL MIXED. SO LOWS WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT IS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ON WED WILL BE A BIT COOLER. KED RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ON MON WILL LIMIT FIRE DANGER TO THE LOW END OF VERY HIGH CATEGORY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS.
THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER AR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE OVERNIGHT.
AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS AR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF IT AND MOVE ACROSS TN OVERNIGHT.
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL LIKELY KEEP ATMOSPHERE WELL MIXED. SO LOWS WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT IS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ON WED WILL BE A BIT COOLER. -HOWERTON UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OZARKS THIS EVENING AND WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE REGION BY DAWN ON MONDAY. KED RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ON MON WILL LIMIT FIRE DANGER TO THE LOW END OF VERY HIGH CATEGORY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS.
/issued 349 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016/ (Tonight and Monday) Compact upper low is moving east into southeastern Oklahoma this afternoon. With downsloping low- level westerly wind component and 850mb thermal ridge building just to our west, high temperatures will be rather warm and going with mid to upper 80s for our area.
751 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. PRESSURE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MON AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OVER SASK AND WILL MOVE ACROSS MAN TONIGHT.
Dewpoints are in the low to mid 60s across the region, with air temperatures now falling into the mid to upper 70s. Aloft, vapor imagery shows an upper low moving through Arkansas with very dry air moving across the Gulf Coast States.
/ISSUED 348 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016/ Two main areas of showers and thunderstorms have developed across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this afternoon in response to a compact low pressure system. The northern area of precip was mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms north of the upper low moving west and northwest. near and just east of the upper low across Southeast Oklahoma. This activity will continue to spread east and northeast through Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas into the evening hours as the upper low continues to shift eastward. The low looks to be entering Northwest Arkansas around 00z and should be exiting the CWA by 06z. Thunderstorm intensity should begin to weaken after 00z over the CWA as the greater instability shifts over Central and Eastern Arkansas with the movement of the upper low.
1215 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. PRESSURE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
1048 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016 Closed upper low spinning over central Oklahoma this afternoon will send scattered showers into the area through the evening. This activity will gradually clear out overnight as heating is lost and the upper low kicks out into the Lower Ohio Valley. 850 hPa winds rising as high as 15C should allow temperatures to rise into the lower to middle 70s across the area, assuming any morning clouds can scatter out in time.
1200 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW AS ONE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES NORTH OUT OF THE AREA.
AT 8 PM MDT SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR HELLS CANYON SWWD TO NEAR LAKEVIEW/OR. SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IN THE HIGH MOUNTAINS BUT ONLY ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES AT PASS LEVELS. AREAS OF LOW VFR/LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW ABOVE 5K FT MSL TONIGHT. SHOWER COVERAGE DECREASING TO SCATTERED AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
827 PM MST SUN MAR 13 2016 AFTER MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
GENERAL MOTION WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS IS TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE ACTIVITY SWINGS AROUND THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. STORMS STILL EXPECTED TO SLOWLY NUDGE TO THE EAST AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST TOWARD TENNESSEE.
1153 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016 /06Z TAFS/ NO CEILING OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. /ISSUED 325 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TIGHTLY WOUND UPPER LOW BETWEEN OKLAHOMA CITY AND MCALESTER MOVING EAST TOWARDS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS LOW MAY EVEN PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FANNIN OR LAMAR COUNTY.
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD MID TO LATE WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THIS AIRMASS IS RATHER STABLE AND THE MOISTURE IS MAINLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
THE STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE STATE.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL BRING PRECIPITATION MAINLY TO THE ROCKIES AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN, AS WELL, AS THE TROF APPROACHES, AND THE CURRENT WINTER HIGH LIGHTS WILL BE CONTINUED. A LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND APPROACH THE ROCKIES BY MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH SURFACE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AROUND 09Z TONIGHT.
755 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW AS ONE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES NORTH OUT OF THE AREA.
A HIGH PRESSURE WILL VIRTUALLY REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS WEEK. THIS THANKS TO A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT DO THE SAME.
An upper level low is currently located across the southwestern U. The upper level low will slowly spread east toward the region tonight and Tuesday, then through the area Tuesday night. Height falls and a warmer more moisture air mass advecting north will allow instability to increase some across eastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri ahead of this line by early Tuesday morning. Given strong wind shear in the low levels, a limited brief isolated tornado risk will also occur with any line segments that can surge to the northeast.
655 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015 SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT 3-5 MB PRESSURE RISES OVER MOST OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND CURRANT GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. CAN SEE SOME VERY LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE MINOT AREA. A COLD FRONT HAS PROPAGATED THROUGH THE US HIGHWAY 85 CORRIDOR. A SECONDARY DECK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL SOON ENTER THE WEST. AND ALSO SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WITH COOLER POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. CLOSED LOW WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST AND ENTER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY.
811 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015 SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
856 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY.
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO RESUME ON TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. GIVEN THE COOLER AIR MASS ALOFT. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS THEN FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
617 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015 AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM JAMES BAY CANADA SOUTH TO VIRGINIA WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY.
1012 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM JAMES BAY CANADA SOUTH TO VIRGINIA WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY.
REINFORCING COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH CHEYENNE BUT IT WILL TAKE A COUPLE MORE HOURS TO ARRIVE IN DENVER. STRONG UPPER LOW EXITING STAGE RIGHT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING WITH STILL SOME EXITING WRAP AROUND SNOWFALL OVER THE FAR NE PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING.
522 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015 RADAR MOSAIC THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MN/IA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. LOOK FOR A GENERAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS/CLOSES OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE TO FOCUS SOME OF THE HIGHER-END PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.
407 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015 A RICH PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPED A LARGE AREA OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS FROM CNTRL TX AND THE LA COAST NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OK. THIS INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE CWA. A LINEAR COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN OK AND N TX TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
705 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015 23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL HANGING ON OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY WHILE STRONG MOISTURE RETURN ON THE BACKSIDE IS LIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH AN UPDATED ZFP HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. PERHAPS LIMITING OUR RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT. WILL STILL GO WITH A MODEST RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IN THE EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SOME GUSTY WINDS ON THE RIDGE TOPS IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
00Z KCRP RAOB INDICATED A 40 TO 45 KT SOUTHERLY LLJ ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WITH FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE DEEPENS AND HOOKS NE. BOTH GUIDANCE SUITES WANT TO DEVELOP A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NE BRUSH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. WHILE I DO THINK AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ALONG/AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT /ESPECIALLY GIVEN ALREADY LOW SURFACE PRESSURE VALUES ACROSS THE REGION/ I THINK MINIMUM PRESSURES OF 1002 TO 1003MB ARE MORE LIKELY THAN THE HRRR/S 999MB LOW. BETTER FORCING WILL OCCUR TUES MORNING AS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO RECEDE ALONG LOW LYING AREAS ALONG AREA BAYS UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUES MORNING.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES TUESDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS. CLOUDS WILL LOWER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND PRECIP MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FORM THE PLAINS. JUST THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK RIDGE AXIS TO OUR EAST AND SOME WEAK PVA. UPPER LEVEL LOW RESIDES OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY TEND TO DELAY THE BETTER DYNAMICS FROM REACHING OUR AREA UNTIL LATE TUES NT AND INTO WED MORNING. THE LOW RISK OF TSTMS. SHOWERS WILL END BY WED EVENING AS COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL AIR MOVES IN.
615 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
ALOFT - A ROBUST LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SHIFTS TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE FROM FL TO NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES EASES EASTWARD. SURFACE - A LOW ON THE CO/KS BORDER TRAILS A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO MEXICO WHILE HIGH PRESSURE. THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DOMINATES WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SOUTH IS ERODING AWAY BUT SLOWLY.
SNOW WAS REPORTED THIS MORNING IN SOME OF THE LOWER VALLEYS. AND THE LOW CENTER APPROACH THE 4-CORNERS AREA. THE FLOW WILL SWITCH AROUND TO NORTHWEST AS THE LOW/TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE HIGHER COLORADO MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LINGERING SNOWFALL IN THE COLD ADVECTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE STORM. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN SHOW A STRONGER PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST ON MON. WITH A RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGE UPSTREAM AND OVER OUR REGION. MANY OF THE HIGHER ELEVATION AIRPORTS CAN EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND EXTENDS WEST INTO GEORGIA. THIS MAINTAINS A DECENT EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ACROSS NE FL/SE GA WHILE A WEAK COASTAL TROF REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS FLOW WILL PUSH MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS NE FL AND WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS SE GA. WHILE WEAK COASTAL TROF NEAR THE COAST WILL BACK WINDS A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SNOW WAS REPORTED THIS MORNING IN SOME OF THE LOWER VALLEYS. AND THE LOW CENTER APPROACH THE 4-CORNERS AREA. THE FLOW WILL SWITCH AROUND TO NORTHWEST AS THE LOW/TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE HIGHER COLORADO MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LINGERING SNOWFALL IN THE COLD ADVECTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE STORM. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN SHOW A STRONGER PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST ON MON. WITH A RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGE UPSTREAM AND OVER OUR REGION. KTEX AND KMTJ HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF BEING IMPACTED BY LOWER FLIGHT CRITERIA INCLUDING NO FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS WARM IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FROM MELBOURNE TO HOBE SOUND AND MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
649 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015 AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM JAMES BAY CANADA SOUTH TO VIRGINIA WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY.
536 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE A GOOD CHANCE AT FORMING A LINE OF STORMS LATER THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THAT WINDOW WILL BEGIN TO SHUT WITH SUNSET AS INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE NWRN PANHANDLE AT 12Z TO NWRN OKLA AND SCNTL/SWRN KS BY END OF DAY. HEIGHT GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE LOW AND MAGNITUDE OF PROGGED MID LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE 700 MB TROUGH SUPPORT WARNING CRITERIA.
540 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015 AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM JAMES BAY CANADA SOUTH TO VIRGINIA WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO CONTINUE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS WELL WITH THE HIGHER SPEEDS ACROSS OUR NE TX TERMINALS. /ISSUED 407 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015/ A RICH PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPED A LARGE AREA OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS FROM CNTRL TX AND THE LA COAST NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OK. THIS INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE CWA. A LINEAR COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN OK AND N TX TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
As a cold front has pushed through southeast New Mexico and into southwest Texas, a drier and stabler airmass is moving into the area ending the risk for severe weather over southeast New Mexico and the western Permian Basin. A strong cold front pushing into extreme southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas will result in increasing coverage of thunderstorms, particularly over the next couple of hours as the front encounters a moist airmass in place over the Permian Basin south through Terrell County.
647 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT FROM EASTERN CANADA.
A strong cold front pushing into extreme southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas will result in increasing coverage of thunderstorms, particularly over the next couple of hours as the front encounters a moist airmass in place over the Permian Basin south through Terrell County.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FORM THE PLAINS.
JAKUB A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS APPEARS ON TRACK GIVEN THE VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR/MERIDIONAL FLOW AND STRONG LARGE- SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH. LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP UNDER THE UPPER LOW AS IT APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND MAINTAINED LOW POPS FOR THIS SCENARIO.
704 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY.