Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The radar is clear of precipitation echoes, and webcams continue to indicate no significant activity along the ridges. Continued the idea of slowing the onset of precipitation late tonight and Monday morning, as the intrusion of upper level lift is slowed and weakened by some minor ridging aloft. Rain will overspread the entire area Monday morning, moving northward along the surface warm front and rising upper level heights. By late Monday night, the warm sector will have spread across the entire region and the upper level ridge will have settled in, allowing for a dry forecast.
The colder air aloft over my area will slowly erode this morning, lingering over the higher elevations until late morning. Will need to keep in PoPs in the highest elevation through a portion of the morning hours, as the risk for orographic snow showers continues. Continued the idea of slowing the onset of precipitation late tonight and Monday morning, as the intrusion of upper level lift is slowed and weakened by some minor ridging aloft. Rain will overspread the entire area Monday morning, moving northward along the surface warm front and rising upper level heights. By late Monday night, the warm sector will have spread across the entire region and the upper level ridge will have settled in, allowing for a dry forecast.
Exception, I extended the High Wind Warnings for the South Laramie Range west to Arlington until 1PM this afternoon as Craig to Casper 850/700mb height gradients remain above 60mtrs.
715 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 High pressure over the Ohio Valley this morning will build east across Pennsylvania later today.
506 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018 WV imagery shows two troughs in the west. One digging south thru the PacNW, and a persistent closed low off the SoCal/Baja coast, which is keeping SW flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Leeside troughing is set to develop on the Front Range later today ahead of the PacNW trough, increasing return flow and bringing dewpoints in the 60s into the lwr Trans Pecos by 18Z. Although thicknesses are forecast to peak this afternoon, temperatures should keep climbing thru Mon afternoon, as sfc flow continues veering to SW and the PacNW trough approaches.
643 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 High pressure will allow for dry conditions across the region today. A warm front will then lift northward tonight into Monday bringing a return of precipitation to the region. Dry conditions will be present today with high pressure. As the high shifts to the east southerly flow will begin to develop allowing for temperatures to climb into the 40s to around 50. Additional rain chances will move in overnight and then push northwards on Monday associated with a warm frontal boundary and increase in moisture.
/issued 349 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018/ TODAY AND TONIGHT: Satellite imagery shows a weak disturbance/pocket of higher low level moisture traversing FL Straits this morning around the base of the ridge parked across the region. Last evening's sounding shows a robust subsident inversion at 5-6KFT due to the influence of the ridge, which models erode little as this feature moves through today.
555 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 High pressure crosses today. Warm front Monday, and then a cold front midweek. Much of the precipitation has tapered off, with mainly areas of -dz across parts of the lowlands, with some -shsn still continuing across the higher terrain. Overnight, clouds will increase, along with chances for precipitation again, as a warm frontal boundary lifts north across the area. There could be a very brief period of freezing rain or drizzle across the northern mountains early Monday, but at this point it appears to be very marginal, with temps probably rising before much moisture moves into the area.
While offering good rain chances WED and WED night with at least some risk of locally heavy rainfall, general consensus is for the better deep layer MSTR and forcing for ascent to stay off to our NW as the deep layer ridging to our east bends but doesn't break, and actually flexes EWD for the end of the week.
502 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the Pacific NW, zonal flow across the west half of the U. The trough in the Pacific NW digs southeast into the western U. by 12z Mon as a ridge retrogrades back towards the southeastern U. Potential for light to moderate snow and possibly significant freezing drizzle/rain accumulations Mon and Tue, but details are still being worked out. The second wave occurs Tue and Tue evening and is more of a classic freezing rain/drizzle event where temperatures aloft rise above freezing with sub-freezing temps at the surface. Depending on exact temperatures, some of this could fall as sleet, but the better signal is for freezing rain.
Low cigs and areas of fog, possibly drizzle or freezing drizzle, will then overspread S WI from the south well after midnight and through Mon AM. However, the continued warm advection and moisture transport will bring low stratus, fog, and possibly drizzle or freezing drizzle to S WI early Mon AM.
1023 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 High pressure crosses today. Warm front Monday, and then a cold front midweek. Much of the precipitation has tapered off, with mainly areas of -dz across parts of the lowlands, with some -shsn still continuing across the higher terrain. Overnight, clouds will increase, along with chances for precipitation again, as a warm frontal boundary lifts north across the area. There could be a very brief period of freezing rain or drizzle across the northern mountains early Monday, but at this point it appears to be very marginal, with temps probably rising before much moisture moves into the area.
The cold trough of low pressure lingers across the Northern Rockies Monday.
The highest amounts are expected along the Interstate 10 corridor. Overnight low temperatures will be in the lower 60s.
Also temperatures have fallen to the freezing mark over the northern 1/3rd of the area and a little further south along the Mississippi River resulting in freezing fog which could produce slick spots on bridges this morning. Further south across north Mississippi clouds have helped keep the temps a little warmer and the fog at bay. Fog will dissipate this morning with some morning sun followed by increasing clouds this afternoon as a warm front starts pushing north. Temps will drop a bit in the evening then rise after midnight as the warm front lifts north.
With temperatures dipping to freezing in our northwest counties, a few "freezing fog slick spots" cannot be ruled out. High pressure will bring mainly sunny skies with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The high will shift eastward quickly, so some late day clouds will move into the area, and a few showers may develop over our southwest counties in the late afternoon. For tonight, southwest flow will develop between a broad trough out west and a very strong ridge off the southeast coast. This pattern will bring a warm front through Mid TN tonight, with scattered showers.
However, the continued warm advection and moisture transport will bring low stratus, fog, and possibly drizzle or freezing drizzle to S WI early Mon AM.
An onshore flow returns to the entire area today as high pressure moves off to the east and low pressure begins to deepen in the eastern Colorado area.
/Issued 351 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018/ Zonal flow aloft is expected to slowly transition to southwesterly through Monday as a trough dives southward across the western United States. It is entirely possible that we could see a quick jump in our gusts (up to 40 mph) this morning as we mix into the low level jet. A similar setup is expected on Monday with the exception being a southward moving cold front.
946 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 Low pressure moving to the south of the state this morning will bring light snow to the area into the mid morning hours. High pressure builds in tonight.
621 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018 Another morning of areawide VLIFR to IFR decks as southerly winds atop a very shallow cooler air mass has produced and maintained these low ceilings. An onshore flow returns to the entire area today as high pressure moves off to the east and low pressure begins to deepen in the eastern Colorado area.
A strong cold front will move into northern and central Nevada today bringing snow, strong gusty winds, and much colder temperatures.
South winds / onshore flow has begun to pick up this morning across much of the region ahead of the cold front. These winds are keeping the boundary layer well-mixed: temperatures are running several degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Precipitation associated with the aforementioned trough will begin to spread across the northern mountains this morning, and down through the Sierra through the course of the day. A few inches of light, fluffy snow are expected across the higher elevations of the Sierra later today, with periodic showers continuing into Monday.
1024 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 High pressure to our north this morning will be shifting east through the day, and be centered over Delmarva by 21Z. The update will bump up highs a few degrees, putting most of the area in the lower to mid 60s.
The colder than expected start to the day and the morning fog suggests high temps will be a bit cooler. Forecast highs are being lowered to the lower and mid 50s.
517 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 Low pressure moving to the south of the state this morning will bring light snow to the area into the mid morning hours. High pressure builds in tonight.
1039 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 A weak, low-level trough at the nose of a deepening/intensifying easterly current is migrating westward through the Florida Keys this morning.
A cold front stretched across central AL/GA this morning will sink briefly south this morning before lifting back north as a warm front.
06Z surface data has high pressure from the western Great Lakes into the lower Mississippi Valley. Once the fog burns off dry and warmer conditions will be seen through sunset.
By noon, global-scale models bring low 50F dewpoints into the southern Rolling Plains while the regional and high- resolution runs keep dewpoints lower until around sunset when they pulls the low 50F dewpoints across all of the Rolling Plains. A wind advisory may be needed Monday afternoon if the higher MOS guidance is realized but it does appear that the higher RH values should keep the fire danger in the elevated range.
536 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the Pacific NW, zonal flow across the west half of the U. The trough in the Pacific NW digs southeast into the western U. by 12z Mon as a ridge retrogrades back towards the southeastern U. Potential for light to moderate snow and possibly significant freezing drizzle/rain accumulations Mon and Tue, but details are still being worked out. The second wave occurs Tue and Tue evening and is more of a classic freezing rain/drizzle event where temperatures aloft rise above freezing with sub-freezing temps at the surface. Depending on exact temperatures, some of this could fall as sleet, but the better signal is for freezing rain.
Once the low level cloudiness and fog lifts, we expect temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s this afternoon with just slight chance for showers. A cold front stretched across central AL/GA this morning will sink briefly south this morning before lifting back north as a warm front.
929 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 High pressure over the Ohio Valley this morning will build east across Pennsylvania later today.
Visible satellite trends have indicated fog has rapidly burned off and have cancelled any Dense/Freezing Fog Advisories that were previously in effect. Also temperatures have fallen to the freezing mark over the northern 1/3rd of the area and a little further south along the Mississippi River resulting in freezing fog which could produce slick spots on bridges this morning. Further south across north Mississippi clouds have helped keep the temps a little warmer and the fog at bay. Fog will dissipate this morning with some morning sun followed by increasing clouds this afternoon as a warm front starts pushing north. Temps will drop a bit in the evening then rise after midnight as the warm front lifts north.
635 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 A frontal boundary pushing south of the CSRA this morning will lift north as a warm front tonight into Monday morning.
646 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 A warm front will keep unsettled weather conditions across the region into the weekend.
Northwest upper flow will pass over eastern Montana today while an upper ridge develops over the Pacific Northwest. As the ridge slides east on Saturday per 00z model guidance expect rising heights and therefore warmer temperatures across the CWA.
107 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through Saturday night with the approach and passage of a cold front. This warming in the mid-levels may further strengthen the cap, but the higher dewpoints will encourage instability numbers. Finally, by Saturday the upper-level trough will shift east crossing sweeping the surface cold front through the area. Mostly dry weather is expected to return Sun/Mon as surface ridging builds underneath the upper trough. Another trough is progged to advance E from the Midwest and Plains regions Tue, though with uncertainty in timing and location limited POPs to the chance category for now on the 4th of July. Restriction chances will continue into Saturday with the approach and passage of a cold front.
Tonight a cold front will approach from the northwest (possibly complicated by various outflows and thunderstorm clusters).
315 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through Saturday night until the passage of a cold front. Another wave is progged for passage later this morning with another this afternoon, ahead of a deepening upper trough across the Midwest. The upper trough should advance across the OH Valley/Great Lakes region Saturday and Saturday night as it drives a cold front across the area, with likely POPs maintained.
expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande valley and northern ranchlands the rest of tonight into Friday as the 500mb ridge across west Texas and a weak 500mb shear axis across the western Gulf of Mexico provides subsidence across most of south TX. The atmospheric moisture will continue to decline while elongated 500 mb troughiness over the northwest Gulf of Mexico retreats to the northeast and slowly dissipates. Generally rain-free conditions expected across Deep South Texas Friday and Friday night as 500 mb high pressure provides subsidence to the region.
1234 AM MDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Cold front is currently draped along the Laramie Range with cooler and more moist conditions across the plains. The cooler temps and higher RH values will end fire weather concerns.
Weakening high pressure aloft over California will offer up slight cooling across the area today and Saturday, however temperatures are expected to remain around normal through the weekend and the coming holiday. Temperatures are expected to range from upper the 50s to lower 70s at the coast with upper 70s to lower 90s for many inland locations, locally warmer in far inland spots.
SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): 500mb ridge across west Texas and 500mb shear axis across the lower TX coast will provide subsidence across the CWA today. The shear axis will move westward tonight as the 500mb ridge across the Gulf of Mexico builds westward. With dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s today.
This lower stuff should mix out by mid morning with 4-6kft CIGS developing by afternoon. More showers and storms are possible today into this evening as weak low pressure moves across. This has deep reflection into the lower levels as weak low pressure will be over Wisconsin at mid day, pushing off to the east this evening.
A cold front is forecast to stall over the nrn terminals today, then move a little further south after sunset. A weak cold front will result in a wind shift to the north at KHOB and KCNM around 30/15z. Another hot day is expected tomorrow despite a cold front entering northern zones Friday morning. The areas to the north of the front may see high temperatures near 5-10 degrees cooler while most everyone else will once again see highs 100+. Even though the front doesn't push through the entire area, we still expect temperatures to be cooler through the weekend as 850mb temperatures decrease significantly. Best chances will generally be across the western areas near the higher terrain where upslope SE winds and decent mid level moisture may contribute to thunderstorm development.
304 AM MDT Fri Jun 30 2017 A ridge of high pressure will keep the region dry with above normal temperatures through Saturday.
225 AM PDT Fri Jun 30 2017 High pressure off the West Coast will gradually build inland through today, keeping dry conditions over the region. Flattened zonal flow begins to amplify this weekend as ridging builds over the Southwest United States.
The main surface front is out in the Dakotas early this morning the upper trough is firmly in place across the upper midwest. The trough will continue pivoting through as vorticity maxima rotate through during the short term period. Above normal temperatures are still expected by midweek as an upper ridge builds across the Rockies, and into the Northern Plains. Confidence remains high on much warmer temperatures expected by midweek. However, confidence is lower on the extent this upper ridge building to the east, and how long it will last.
357 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Warm and humid southwest flow prevails ahead of a cold front that crosses Saturday.
An exception to the dry forecast is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the mountains Saturday night as a weak upper level trough crosses the area. Temperatures will gradually rise through the period as a very warm upper level high pressure ridge builds over the Intermountain Region.
westward moving outflow from the thunderstorms out east will combine with a cold front dropping south from the north will move across the Plains. Cooler air behind the cold front will bring much more stable conditions to the Plains along with cooler afternoon highs.
A ridge of high pressure will be over the Northern Rockies today causing temperatures to warm to above normal readings. A few high clouds will be streaming over the top of the ridge today especially across northwest Montana.
445 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Water vapor imagery in conjunction with mean layer analyses from CIMSS indicate a deep anticyclone centered just west of the Florida Peninsula. The low level high is centered north of Bermuda and reaches west southwest into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Curiously, shower and thunderstorm coverage ends sharply, east of a line which bisects the Lower Keys. High pressure centered near Bermuda will reach west across the Florida Peninsula today through the remainder of the forecast period.
358 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017 The synoptic situation this morning sees near zonal flow in the eastern part of the country with high amplitude ridging along the Pacific Coast. The ridge out west will flatten somewhat over the remainder of the weekend as a trough comes ashore the Pacific Northwest as it weakens.
High pressure will build into for the latter portion of the weekend, lowering humidities and bringing dry weather back to the area. Large hail cannot be entirely ruled out as midlevel instability profiles are decent, but freezing levels on the order of 13-14KFT will limit this threat. High pressure will dominate the rest of the short term and dry weather is a good bet.
A break from the heat can be expected today as cooler air filters down into western Kansas in wake of a recent frontal passage, in effect lowering H85 temperatures below 20C across the area. Highs are only expected to reach the upper 70s(F) across portions of west central Kansas to the lower to mid 80s(F) in south central Kansas. Because of the cooler air mass in place, lows down into the 50s(F) can be expected tonight across west central Kansas to the 60s(F) in south central Kansas.
335 AM MDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Low amplitude upper trough is extending across the central CONUS this morning with the main axis slowly crossing eastern WY though SD into MN. Upper ridging will build in for the weekend with warm air advection returning.
This has deep reflection into the lower levels as weak low pressure will be over Wisconsin at mid day, pushing off to the east this evening.
An offshore high pressure system will continue to interact with an inland area of lower pressure. The trough will also advect the extensive marine stratus cloud shield offshore into the coast as winds turn onshore. On Saturday an upper level ridge re-builds over northwest CA. The longer range outlook is calling for an Omega Block pattern to develop by mid-week with the strong ridge over the Intermountain West. Moderate winds and steep seas will persist for the next several days as an offshore surface based high pressure system maintains a tight pressure gradient.
Weak energy topping the ridge late on Saturday into Saturday night could aid an isolated storm over the high country, otherwise forecast looks dry.
416 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Early this morning a surface cold front continues to scoot south and east across central portions of the state.
Low temperatures in the low 50s west to low 60s east. High temperatures Friday in the low to mid 70s in far eastern Colorado, mid 70s to low 80s elsewhere.
139 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 High pressure off the eastern seaboard will set up a warmer and more humid airflow for the next several days.
Low temperatures in the low 50s west to low 60s east. High temperatures Friday in the low to mid 70s in far eastern Colorado, mid 70s to low 80s elsewhere. Flow aloft becomes northwesterly Friday night as a ridge builds over the southwestern CONUS. High pressure moves east onto the region, resulting in increased temperatures on Saturday as well as dry weather.
As we head into the first half of the weekend, a transient, weak ridge of high pressure will briefly build into the area late Friday into Saturday.
Digging trof over the Central Plains continues to push sewd, and an associated MCS over nrn OK/sern KS is ongoing as a result. Convection to continue as the trof/cold front digs into the srn Plains by late tonight, which will bring increasing PoPs to our region. Greatest chances for rain will be along I-20 and nwd, as the srn extent of the trof/front look to be limited by the upper ridge axis over NM/nrn Mexico. Increasing moisture combined with temperatures in the lower 90s will produce heat index readings between 100 and 105 today and Saturday.
Forcing with the trough is fairly weak, so will have just a chance of thunderstorms mentioned, but PW values near 2 inches could result in locally heavy rain and potentially minor flooding if cells train over the same locations.
The showers/drizzle which have loitered over northeast Minnesota, the Twin Ports, and portions of northern Wisconsin today will gradually shift eastward as the upper trough axis shifts eastward. A long wave upper trough will move through the forecast area Friday night, accompanied by an elongated area of vorticity. Showers will be hanging around overnight however, as the trough affects the area. A cut off upper low follows on Saturday with more pieces of vorticity moving through northern Minnesota. The closed upper low opens up into a trough Saturday night with the base of the trough and a potent vort max moving over the Arrowhead and into northwest Wisconsin.
643 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Warm and humid southwest flow prevails ahead of a cold front that crosses Saturday.