Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A return of monsoonal moisture will bring a slight chance for thunderstorms beginning Wednesday over the higher terrain. Cooler than average low temperatures are forecast again tonight, though not quite as cool due to slightly increased moisture. The weather pattern will begin to transition on Wednesday as high pressure strengthens over the Four Corners region. Thursday through the weekend - strong high pressure should remain centered near the four corners, continuing the favorable flow pattern for advecting moisture into the region.
After scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning, cooler and drier conditions will prevail for a day or two before heat returns for late week and the weekend.
The area of low pressure over the northeastern Gulf will continue to drift to the west away from the area today. Highs will get into the upper 80s to lower 90s today, with heat indices 100-105F due to dewpoints remaining in the low to mid 70s.
634 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019 Today's primary forecast challenge will be timing of approaching cold front through eastern Kansas/Missouri and when/where convection will develop, if at all, before the front exits forecast area. Currently, the cold front is situated over central Iowa and extends southeast to Omaha and along the Kansas/Nebraska border. Decided to lean towards the HRRR solution as upper level support is somewhat limited and timing of the cold front appears better. Unfortunately for folks in the southern most counties, cooler and drier air will not arrive until early evening. With temperatures expected to reach the low 90s and heat indices reaching 100-105F, a Heat Advisory is valid for counties along the southern border of the CWA from 10/17Z to 11/00Z.
Latest RAP model has mid level troughiness across the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. broad low pressure south of the AL/FL border. and Atlantic high pressure stretching westward south of the Florida Keys. Broad area of low pressure in the northeast Gulf of Mexico tracks slowly west during the couple of days - NHC predicts a 90 percent chance this area will be come better organized.
More widespread rain chances are expected with a Thursday cold front. with heat index values in the low 90s.
Numerous Showers and Some Lightning Storms With Heavy Rainfall Morning surface analysis indicates an elongated low pressure area offshore from the FL panhandle with low level S/SSW flow locally between this feature and the Atlantic ridge. With the high precipitable water values and the possibility of south to north training of cells expect some locally higher rainfall amounts to 2-3 inches again this afternoon.
09Z surface analysis places a cold front from Western Lake Superior back through Southeast Nebraska and into Colorado. Warm and moist air with surface dewpoints in the 70s extends into the Upper Midwest with higher dewpoints persisting across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Heat concerns in the short term and potential tropical activity affecting the Lower Mississippi Valley for the upcoming weekend are the predominant concerns in this morning's forecast issuance. Short term models including Convective Allowing Model (CAM) solutions suggest isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop as convective temperatures in the lower to middle 90s are reached mainly during the afternoon hours. The aforementioned cold front is expected to drop into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Under high pressure, environmental winds will remain weak, and storm motion will be primarily determined by propagation of outflow boundaries.
327 AM MDT Wed Jul 10 2019 Broad high pressure will continue edging west from Texas into New Mexico and pushing north over much of Colorado and Utah today and Thursday. Moisture will increase beneath the ridge Thursday producing isolated high-based thunderstorms late in the afternoon predominantly over the mountains. The lower atmosphere will remain dry enough that little rain will reach the ground.
A return of monsoonal moisture will bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms today over the higher terrain. Moisture has begun to slowly increase which has kept temperatures warmer than last night. The low levels of the atmosphere will remain quite dry, so the primary threat from these storms will be gusty outflow winds and dry lightning. Chances for measurable rainfall are a bit higher than today, but will still remain on the lower side due to the dry boundary layer conditions. Temperatures across the lower elevations of Yavapai County and the Grand Canyon will climb to 105-110 F both afternoons, making for a moderate heat risk. Be sure to take the necessary precautions by planning outdoor activities during cooler times of the day and staying hydrated.
411 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019 Today's primary forecast challenge will be timing of approaching cold front through eastern Kansas/Missouri and when/where convection will develop, if at all, before the front exits forecast area. Currently, the cold front is situated over central Iowa and extends southeast to Omaha and along the Kansas/Nebraska border. Decided to lean towards the HRRR solution as upper level support is somewhat limited and timing of the cold front appears better. Unfortunately for folks in the southern most counties, cooler and drier air will not arrive until early evening. With temperatures expected to reach the low 90s and heat indices reaching 100-105F, a Heat Advisory is valid for counties along the southern border of the CWA from 10/17Z to 11/00Z.
Cold front that passed through the CWA last evening was extended from southeast NE into far northwest KS and eastern CO. Latest short range models/ensembles are in good agreement as a large scale ridge of high pressure builds over the Rocky Mountains and High Plains. A 700mb ridge over western WY today centers along the WY Front Range Thursday. It will be warmer over western Carbon County this afternoon with highs into the middle 80s for the valleys, while middle 70s to lower 80s prevail to the east of the Laramie Range. Thursday will be 10 to 15 degrees warmer with afternoon high temperatures with 700mb temperature in the middle to upper teens Celsius.
639 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019 Isolated thunderstorms seem a good possibility developing near or just behind the weak outflow-boosted cold front that will be passing through the area by late morning or early afternoon. Today, the upper level subtropical ridge will continue to migrate NW as it strengthens and eventually settles along the CO/NM border. Attendant anti-cyclonic flow around the upper high will stream drier air aloft into the region. Drier air and high pressure aloft will limit storm growth at first but, once storms get going and CAPE values become realized a few pulse severe storms could occur.
A cold front extends from Upper Michigan southwest through IA into southern NE early this morning. This cold front will be moving southeastward and be accompanied by showers and thunderstorms across central IN late this afternoon and the early half of tonight. Surface analysis late this morning shows low pressure in place across the western Great lakes. Given our warm and southerly flow ahead of the approaching trough. trended highs 1-2 degrees warmer than persistence. Cold front will continue its journey southeast through the remainder of central IN Thursday morning into early afternoon. Looks like high pressure will move into the mid to upper midwest with two of the nicest days to end the week.
Showers on the west side of the upper low dropping south and then they will clear east today. A narrow line of t-storms formed near the low prior to 08z and moving south. Otheriwse showers on the north and west side of the upper low will move eastward today as the low departs. though dry tongue which wrapped around the south and now east side of the upper low will cutoff moisture and allow the deformation zone rain NW of the upr low to diminish as it moves east. Low pressure with system north of Winnipeg with a front/trough southwest into NE ND late Thursday aftn/eve.
633 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019 Breezy northwest winds gusting to 35 mph will begin fairly early this morning and last throughout the day as a diffuse cold front pushes through the region. The core of the potent parent upper- level trough will be close enough today to cause scattered rain showers, as cool temperatures aloft support shallow convection. On Thursday the pattern will begin to change as an upper-level ridge builds in the wake of Wednesday's trough.
629 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019 After scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning, cooler and drier conditions will prevail for a day or two before heat returns for late week and the weekend.
Upper ridge was building into the area this morning.
A mild summer day is in store Thursday with highs mainly in the low to mid 90s. PoPs will remain low through the extended as high pressure sits north of the region and northeasterly flow aloft is maintained.
Dewpoint temps will creep into the low to mid 70s, making it feel extra gross outside. Heat Index values will be in the low 100s across most of the area, so heat safety precautions will be necessary. Into tomorrow, an upper-level trough will be passing through the Ohio River Valley and will send a nice little surface front to Middle TN.
809 AM MDT Wed Jul 10 2019 High pressure will remain across the region through the week. High pressure continues to build into the region this morning. Temperatures are expected to approach the highest levels for the summer so far over the next several days. Much of the model guidance continues to shift the ridge eastward sufficiently to bring mid-level moisture into Utah by Thursday afternoon. This will bring the threat of convection to the higher terrain.
Today through Thursday night: A low pressure system moving northeast along the coast is dragging a negatively tilted frontal zone across Eastern Washington and extreme North Idaho today. The same general southwest flow pattern resulting from general low pressure off the coast juxtaposed against inland ridging remains in place into Thursday night but moisture and instability are much more limited, therefore any minor pops that remain to account for this would be clustered within close proximity of the lee of the Cascade crest and higher terrain very close to the British Columbia Border.
High pressure will remain across the region through the week.
09Z surface analysis places a cold front from Western Lake Superior back through Southeast Nebraska and into Colorado. Warm and moist air with surface dewpoints in the 70s extends into the Upper Midwest with higher dewpoints persisting across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Heat concerns in the short term and potential tropical activity affecting the Lower Mississippi Valley for the upcoming weekend are the predominant concerns in this morning's forecast issuance. Short term models including Convective Allowing Model (CAM) solutions suggest isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop as convective temperatures in the lower to middle 90s are reached mainly during the afternoon hours. The aforementioned cold front is expected to drop into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday.
The weather pattern will become more summerlike this week as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Four Corners region.
This mornings sounding shows convective temps are running around 90f with a max temp in the lower to mid 90s.
355 AM MDT Wed Jul 10 2019 Patchy morning fog will be present this morning, though will give way to sunny skies, dry weather, and seasonably warm temperatures with upper level ridging and high pressure building into the region.
Northern California under southwest flow aloft between high pressure centered over the southwest U. and a low pressure system off the Pacific Northwest coast. Upper ridge over the southwest U. Stable southwest flow aloft and building high pressure will keep any precipitation out of the short term forecast.
Cold front extends from south of Colorado Springs, to Oakley in northwest Kansas into southeast Nebraska per surface observations and radar data. Outflow from Nebraska storms will reinforce frontal surge as it comes southeast down the High Plains. This boundary, or associated wind shift ahead of synoptic cold front, may help a few morning storms develop across far northeast Oklahoma. Cold front will arrive by this evening, and there is potential for storms along this boundary as well.
The drier air and the westward exit of yesterday's meridional low pressure trough readily explain the marked decrease in precip coverage over the Keys and adjacent waters. Gentle to moderate south to southeast breezes will prevail over the Keys coastal waters through Thursday evening, between a developing tropical cyclone over the north-central Gulf and subtropical high pressure centered well south of Bermuda.
Today's primary forecast challenge will be timing of approaching cold front through eastern Kansas/Missouri and when/where convection will develop, if at all, before the front exits forecast area. Currently, the cold front is situated over central Iowa and extends southeast to Omaha and along the Kansas/Nebraska border. Decided to lean towards the HRRR solution as upper level support is somewhat limited and timing of the cold front appears better. Unfortunately for folks in the southern most counties, cooler and drier air will not arrive until early evening. With temperatures expected to reach the low 90s and heat indices reaching 100-105F, a Heat Advisory is valid for counties along the southern border of the CWA from 10/17Z to 11/00Z.
For today, trended toward the higher end of dewpoint guidance once again. There is a little more uncertainty across north central Oklahoma, where the effective cold front and/or convection may mitigate the potential for higher heat indicies. The surface boundary/cold front is forecast to be somewhat diffuse with a gradual backing of the surface wind to the east and then northeast. Outflow from thunderstorms may assist in the southward progress of the effective cold front and growth of new convection. For Thursday, a 3 to 5 F decrease in afternoon temperatures is expected behind the cold front. However, with lower dewpoints (mid 60s to low 70s F), heat indicies are expected to only be in the low to mid 90s F across the northern half of Oklahoma.
At the surface, northwest winds gusted up to 25-40 mph across the area and highs only managed to reach the lower 80s this afternoon. High pressure will build in at the surface tonight through Thursday morning, maintaining dry conditions across the forecast area. In fact, although it may be a few degrees warmer, it should be a relatively pleasant day again tomorrow. Dewpoints will top out in the low 60s, with high temperatures rising into the mid 80s.
/issued 814 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2019/ Latest RAP model has mid level troughiness across the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. broad low pressure south of the AL/FL border. and Atlantic high pressure stretching westward south of the Florida Keys. Broad area of low pressure in the northeast Gulf of Mexico tracks slowly west during the couple of days - NHC predicts a 90 percent chance this area will be come better organized.
With the slight increase in rainfall, afternoon temps may trend a few degrees cooler compared to the recent excessive heat. Afternoon highs Thu/Fri look to trend more in the upper 80s/lower 90s with overnight lows predom in the lower 70s thru Fri night.
A cold front will move through TAF locations later this evening and overnight, resulting in surface winds becoming northeasterly. A mild summer day is in store Thursday with highs mainly in the low to mid 90s. PoPs will remain low through the extended as high pressure sits north of the region and northeasterly flow aloft is maintained.
Warmer temperatures across the Bay Area today as a warming trend begins and expected to last throughout the weekend. Models are showing 500 mb heights over the Bay Area could reach over 590 dam as the ridge strengthens.
Broad southwest flow remains in place over East Idaho, sandwiched between high pressure ridge centered near the four-corners region and deep trough off PacNW coast.
Clear skies across the region with the subtropical ridge centered over New Mexico and Colorado. The region is still seeing synoptic scale influence from this ridge with subsidence occurring over most of the state.
Upper levels dominated by an anticyclone over Colorado/New Mexico, which will inhibit synoptic scale forcing. At the surface, old frontal boundary from yesterday has pushed into the Texas panhandle, with western portion weakening/washing out under the ridge in eastern Colorado. Thursday will be warmer with highs in the lower 90s aided by southerly winds. Appears the lee trough will develop in northeast Colorado, where typical afternoon storms may pop up, from Limon to Yuma, by mid to late afternoon. Upper level high pressure continues to dominate much of the U. Though unlikely to have much impact on the central Plains, there is a potential tropical cyclone developing over the Gulf of Mexico at this time.
Southerly flow will develop tomorrow night ahead of the approaching thermal ridge, but a cool front will be approaching form the north by late in the night. Guidance remains in good agreement on the expanding upper ridge over the central US from the end of the week through the weekend. Some flattening of the ridge is progged by midweek, although the main baroclinic zone would still be to our north with above normal temperatures persisting in our area through the period.
Somewhat cooler and less humid air arrives for Thursday with another small chance for a shower from late morning into the mid afternoon period. Multiple subtle possible triggers (lake breeze far NW, remnant weak convergence in far SE, pre- frontal trough working east through IL. Boundary interactions and arrival of trough this evening may increase shear locally. Pre frontal trough will bring somewhat less humid air to the area, but still leave plenty of moisture around for the day Thursday as another disturbance and more pronounced front arrive late morning into the afternoon. High pressure will settle into the region and provide a mainly dry period.
An sfc cold front extends from western IL through northern MO into east central KS. The sfc cold front will move through the forecast area this evening. Less humid weather is expected to end the week with somewhat cooler temperatures, especially at night. Upper level ridging will build in from the Plains by the weekend with a warming trend. A cold front along with outflow from storms over northern Kansas this morning will combine with the unstable airmass to produce showers and thunderstorms today.
223 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019 Winds will continue to decrease this evening as low pressure moves further east and high pressure builds in. Quiet weather will continue across the CWA Thursday as ridging aloft begins to build. Winds will become southerly, and increasing temps aloft and clear skies will allow for warmer surface temperatures across the board, compared to Wednesday. Central South Dakota may rise into the low 90s, and dewpoints back into the mid to upper 60s will make for the return of sticky conditions.
The cold front that moved through the area this morning will stall out south of the area with high pressure being the dominate feature across the Central Plains. Dry conditions continue across western Kansas tomorrow as high pressure continues to be the dominate feature. Winds will generally be from the east to northeast overnight shifting to more of a southerly direction tomorrow as the area of high pressure moves east of the area. Summer like conditions continue as an upper level high builds over the Central and Southern Rockies.
158 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019 This afternoon, mid/upper level ridging has relinquished its grip a touch as isolated convection has fired across the area.
Toward midnight and beyond, the focus will be with the passage of a weak front, and DPVA approaching our northern CWFA, at the southern extent of a trof axis from the Great Lakes to central Illinois 12z Thursday.
A separate cold front is also on the way and is currently located across the central Texas Panhandle Though an upper high dominates the region a area of weak upper lift appears to be heading to the region from El Paso/south-central New Mexico that, along with the approaching front, may aid in convective development helping to compensate for low CAPE across our southwestern zones. Today, the upper level subtropical ridge will continue to migrate NW as it strengthens and eventually settles along the CO/NM border. Attendant anti-cyclonic flow around the upper high will stream drier air aloft into the region. Drier air and high pressure aloft will limit storm growth at first but, once storms get going and CAPE values become realized a few pulse severe storms could occur.
226 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019 Latest radar imagery shows the actual cold front moving through the area. For tomorrow, temperatures will be in the middle 80s with dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s as high pressure builds southward into the region.
139 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2019 A few isolated showers this afternoon will be followed by more widespread rain and thunderstorm chances with a Thursday cold front. with heat index values in the low 90s.
332 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019 Upper level ridging will build northward across the area tonight through Thursday. Drier air has temporarily moved southeast into the area behind an upper level low tracking across the Northern Plains. Mainly dry conditions are expected along with warmer high temperatures Thursday. Winds will be on the increase as well Thursday as leeward troughing develops east of the Rockies. This will draw higher dew points/moisture back into the region along with the warmer air.
956 AM MDT Wed Jul 10 2019 Forecast Update: Fairly quiet weather day expected today and through the next 24 hours, due to a high pressure ridge over the region. The ridge of high pressure is forecast to bring drier/warmer, and more stable weather conditions. tc Previous Forecast Discussion 355 am MDT: Patchy morning fog will be present this morning, though will give way to sunny skies, dry weather, and seasonably warm temperatures with upper level ridging and high pressure building into the region.
A mid level trough will move through tonight. High pressure will expand across the plains and push into Iowa tomorrow. Light northeast winds will keep temperatures a litle cooler near the lake. We will be stuck in northwest flow with an upper level ridge just to the west for the end of the week. This will allow a few short wave troughs to push through the area.
1135 AM MDT Wed Jul 10 2019 Once the early morning showers exit the eastern sections of the forecast area, the main concern over the next couple of days is the warmer temperatures. As high pressure aloft builds over the western U. Wednesday night lows will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s while Thursday night low temperatures will range from the lower to the upper 60s. Warmer temperatures are expected with highs generally in the mid to upper 90s across the forecast area.
The weather pattern will become more summerlike this week as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Four Corners region. Fairly quiet day across the region today as high pressure remains centered over CO/NM. This is expected to lead to some afternoon cumulus over mainly the higher terrain of the aforementioned areas.
1107 AM MDT Wed Jul 10 2019 Broad high pressure will continue edging west from Texas into New Mexico and pushing north over much of Colorado and Utah today and Thursday. Moisture will increase beneath the ridge Thursday producing isolated high-based thunderstorms late in the afternoon predominantly over the mountains. The lower atmosphere will remain dry enough that little rain will reach the ground.
Models indicate a short wave trough moving into the area from NC, which may enhance lift.
1243 PM MDT Wed Jul 10 2019 An upper ridge covers the western CONUS, with high pressure centered over NM. At the surface, high pressure covers the western ND/SD/NE. High pressure will keep conditions dry today and tonight.