Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Because here, winds are actually light under the ridge axis and low levels are still moist. For later today, expect the clouds across the east will have pushed off and it appears to be a mostly sunny day across much of the area with warmer temps ranging from the upper 70s to the upper 80s. A nice warm-up after the cooler readings of past days.
702 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017 Closed upper low over southwest Minnesota at 07Z will track northeast toward the upper Great Lakes today with weak short wave ridging moving into the region on the backside of the system. Friday afternoon should see clearing conditions spread into the area as another round of short wave ridging moves in behind the departing trough.
1154 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 Weak high pressure moves off the coast today. A cold front will move into the area this weekend and stall.
751 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 Rain is likely with a cold front later today and into Friday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will gradually increase in eastern Ohio through this afternoon as the warm front drags through the area. Will keep in the risk for showers/storms overnight, with the higher PoPs drifting eastward with the exiting wave. It's likely that models are filling showers in through the entire trough axis, which would focus the activity over the southeastern quadrant of the area. As afternoon approaches, the trough axis will shift southeastward toward the Mid-Atlantic region, which should bring an end to the risk of showers, save for the far southeastern ridges. The cold front will finally begin to cross the area late Friday afternoon reaching Northern West Virgina by late evening.
Rain comes to an end today as the low pressure system centered over the Twin Cities early this morning lifts northeast towards eastern Lake Superior tonight. Rain showers will gradually come to an end from west to east today, with winds becoming out of the north in the wake of the low. Cooler today in the 60s for highs, then lows in the 50s tonight as skies clear out. Warmer with highs in the mid 70s to near 80 Friday.
High pressure aloft remains dominant over most of South Central TX, with some subtle instability hanging on over parts of the Edwards Plateau into Nrn Mexico early this morning. The mid level ridge axis over Central Tx will both strengthen and build northward today and tonight, leading to reduced surface winds in the late afternoon and evening over the next couple days.
A gradual inland warming trend can be expected through late week as high pressure builds over the region.
735 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 The upper ridge builds over the southeast today. Afternoon pops have been kept in the low chance range.
The Cape southward through the Treasure Coast will have the lowest PoP chances (20-40pct), unless late day boundary collisions push some convection back towards the coast here. High pressure ridging over the south-central FL peninsula remains forecast to make slow progress northward toward the central peninsula over the next 24 hours.
708 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 High pressure over the area today will bring dry weather to the area with high temperatures in the 70s to around 80. A warm front will approach the region later tonight from the southwest and enhance the potential for showers and a few thunderstorms across the area.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 75 90 69 / 30 40 30 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 73 87 67 / 30 30 40 0 Oak Ridge, TN 90 73 87 67 / 30 40 30 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 70 84 63 / 50 40 30 10.
There was a slight offshore trend in our pressure gradients that probably inhibited the low cloud formation.
Highs today will be in the lower to middle 80s. Cooler and drier air will filter in behind this system tonight into Friday.
/issued 354 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017/ Latest water vapor imagery shows a large dome of high pressure dominating the Florida peninsula, with little in the way of synoptic features to note. Maximum temperatures will range from the low to mid 90s across the region, a couple degrees warmer than average for this time of year.
1135 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 Rain is likely with a cold front later today and into Friday. The first is across central/eastern Ohio with scattered showers, while the second remains with the cold front currently across eastern Indiana. Will keep in the risk for showers/storms overnight, with the higher PoPs drifting eastward with the exiting wave. It's likely that models are filling showers in through the entire trough axis, which would focus the activity over the southeastern quadrant of the area. As afternoon approaches, the trough axis will shift southeastward toward the Mid-Atlantic region, which should bring an end to the risk of showers, save for the far southeastern ridges. The cold front will finally begin to cross the area late Friday afternoon reaching Northern West Virgina by late evening.
1010 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 Weak ridging at the surface and aloft will continue across the area through early Friday.
Boundary layer flow becomes more SW today and upper level ridge remains in place. An upper level low pressure trough at 200-300 mb extended into the forecast area from the southern Gulf of Mexico. A shear axis was in place over the western part of the upper trough, mainly across the northern and central parts of the state. Finally, an upper level high pressure ridge extended across the northern Gulf of Mexico to over the forecast area.
1037 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017 Updated the forecast through tonight, mainly to reflect the latest consensus of the higher resolution short term models' timing on the rain. Rain comes to an end today as the low pressure system centered over the Twin Cities early this morning lifts northeast towards eastern Lake Superior tonight. Rain showers will gradually come to an end from west to east today, with winds becoming out of the north in the wake of the low. Cooler today in the 60s for highs, then lows in the 50s tonight as skies clear out. Warmer with highs in the mid 70s to near 80 Friday.
A ridge of high pressure at the surface will be building over the area this afternoon, and winds should decrease toward late afternoon. Closed upper low over southwest Minnesota at 07Z will track northeast toward the upper Great Lakes today with weak short wave ridging moving into the region on the backside of the system. Friday afternoon should see clearing conditions spread into the area as another round of short wave ridging moves in behind the departing trough.
608 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017 Surface analysis shows a high pressure system across the forecast area this morning with clouds and precipitation around during the day. Expect a weak upper level ridge to nudge across the plains on Friday.
635 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017 Strong surface and upper level low positioned just northeast of the forecast area, near Gaylord Minnesota as of 08Z. Deep northwest flow behind the departing low will bring gusty conditions to the region today, especially in eastern areas, whereas locations west of I-29 will begin to see influence of surface ridging by mid afternoon. However, the ridging and associated subsidence behind the low should bring mostly sunny skies to most areas by mid afternoon, with temperatures climbing much closer to mid-August normals. Low level jet impinging on elevated warm front near the Missouri River Valley should focus greater rain potential in our southern counties, though broad lift ahead of the wave may lead to scattered light showers even north of I-90. On Friday, a cold front will move through the region.
Water vapor analysis shows the upper low sagging over southern Nevada while subsident air moves into northwest Utah, further stretching out a deformation zone across southern Utah.
Temperatures this morning are running 1 to 4 degrees warmer than this time yesterday.
This wave will push a dry cold front across the cwa early this morning. High pressure move over eastern Montana overnight with winds diminishing and modest humidity recovery. Thermal ridge rebounds into central Montana on Friday for warming temperatures across the state.
Temperatures behind the front on Friday will actually be warmer than today with readings in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
By late evening, higher theta-e air will be transported to the north as the low level flow increases.
1052 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017 15z/10am surface analysis shows 998mb low over western Wisconsin, with cold front trailing southward along the Mississippi River. High temperatures will top out in the lower to middle 80s. However, both the NAM and GFS indicate CAPE's east of I-57 reaching above 1000 J/kg by midday, ahead of the actual cold front, which is currently back across eastern Iowa and northern Missouri. Main upper flow will be coming out of the northwest late this week, as ridging strengthens along the western Rockies.
A weak area of low pressure over the western states will provide a tranquil weather pattern and a slight warming trend for most of our region through the weekend. Weak positive tilt trough extending from southern California northeast to southern Utah this morning. Slight chance POPs over the highest terrain this afternoon/evening of Inyo, Esmeralda, Nye and Lincoln Counties looks reasonable.
Short Term Update - Ridging to our north will maintain generally light east breezes.
618 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2017 A cold front has pushed south of the CWA this morning with dry air moving in from the north. An upper level low pressure system, currently over Utah, will move into eastern MT late tonight with WAA showers possible in this CWA.
959 AM EDT Fri Sep 29 2017 A cold front will move across the Ohio Valley today. High pressure will build in behind the front, bringing dry and cooler conditions for Saturday. Clouds are increasing ahead of a weak cold front dropping from the northwest. High temperatures will rise into the lower to mid 70s across the CWA this afternoon. High pressure builds in behind the front tonight and Saturday. Drier air along with subsidence from the high will promote mainly clear skies tonight and mostly sunny skies on Saturday. The air mass will be cooler, with high temperatures of 65 to 70 deg F expected across the CWA for Saturday.
Upper ridge will remain over the forecast area today which will allow warm and dry weather to continue. The upper ridge moves to the east tonight. This low will move into Eastern Montana tonight and get absorbed into the larger- scale upper trough approaching the area from the west on Saturday. One more warm and dry day is expected on Saturday before a cold front moves through Saturday Night.
The forecast area is underneath a weakness in the subtropical ridge. In fact, an upper low is evident in water vapor imagery over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A trough is analyzed from Western Cuba to South Florida. All eyes are on this trough where low pressure is expected to form and drift north.
Agreement also is found in a general lowering of pressure across south FL as an inverted trough lifts northward from the Keys. The latest thinking is favoring an initial west (inland) skew heading into tonight and the weekend for the broad trough to provide favorable breeding ground for a weak developing low; waiting for a better tipping of the hand in the analysis fields. Given the lower probs for precip and uncertainty w/r/t thunder, keeping with prevailing VCSH farther north and inland, rather than VCTS.
Currently, an upper level low was over the intermountain west near Utah/Wyoming/Colorado, with an upper level ridge over the Canadian Prairies. At the surface, a large cool high pressure system extended over Manitoba into eastern North Dakota. The Canadian Prairies upper ridge moves eastward and allows the intermountain west upper level low to deepen as it lifts northeastward today and arrives in eastern Montana late tonight. At the surface, a low pressure trough develops in the lee of the Rockies in response to the deepening upper low. An upper level low off the west coast Friday moves east across the Rockies Saturday and merges with the intermountain low over eastern Montana mentioned in the short term discussion.
Cooler conditions persist over the region this morning compared to this time yesterday as onshore flow and a shallow marine layer made a come back. Meanwhile, a mid/upper level trough continues to approach the Pacific Northwest while high pressure over the eastern Pacific is being compressed southward.
The forecast area currently sits between an upper low over the Rockies and H5 ridging to the east. high pressure over the area expected to shift east of the region thru the day allowing for lee-side trough to set up going into the beginning of the weekend. Models carry this trough out into the Plains region late Saturday with the overall upper pattern remaining intact for the remainder of the weekend. clouds with chances for precip to continue thru Saturday peaking during the day Saturday as the lee- side trough shifts north and eastward.
06Z surface data has a cold front running from central Lake Michigan, across far northern Iowa, and to near KFSD. After sunrise, quiet and dry conditions will be seen across the area as high pressure starts building into the Midwest. Quiet and dry conditions will continue tonight as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes.
An orphaned low, with some associated moisture, will shift northeast through the region as ridge shifts eastward and is replaced by southwest flow aloft. This will also combine with developing surface trof, for additional support for convection. System does not look significantly strong, but cannot discount potential for more widespread showers than previously indicated, especially with coincidence of upper and lower level trofs. Ridging to start the day over the area with a sunny morning on tap. A broad upper low thats found its way under the ridge will drift northward across Wyoming and into the area this afternoon providing increased mid and high level cloud cover and a few mountain showers. Pre-frontal day on Saturday with surface trof over the area will allow temperatures to bump into the mid 70s, with a few upper 70s not out of the question.
00Z short range models track low pressure se into Lake Ontario by sunset and push the cold front south across central IL during this morning and through southeast IL during early/mid afternoon hours. SW winds ahead of cold front to turn nw behind the front with gusts 15 to 20 mph this afternoon. 1030 mb Canadian high pressure over southern Manitoba will settle into the western Great Lakes by dawn Saturday and bring clear skies and lighter winds tonight. A cooler night ahead with lows in the low to mid 40s, coolest by Galesburg. Upper level ridge shifts east into IL on Saturday while Canadian high pressure sprawls across the Great Lakes region and ridges into IL.
Because of this, overnight lows have been slightly adjusted warmer across SW counties. Winds may become a bit breezy from the southeast across the Plains later this afternoon thanks to a nearby area of high pressure across southern Manitoba. KLG An upper level ridge of high pressure will be over the region today, allowing for one more sunny and mild afternoon. On Saturday, the first in a series of cold fronts will move through the region, cooling afternoon highs back down closer to more seasonal normals, along with allowing for a few scattered showers, especially over Southwest MT.
The atmosphere is very moist in the lower levels and hence the low clouds around the Panhandles. /Issued 520 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2017/ The upper level low pressure system currently near southwest Wyoming will continue moving slowly north northeast towards the northern plains states by Saturday. This will result in a continued threat for showers today and tonight, and then a slight chance to chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night as the atmosphere becomes slightly more unstable due to expected warmer max temperatures.
/issued 421 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): Low to mid level moisture will remain elevated across portions of northeast Mexico and southwest Texas today even with a 500mb ridge centered across northeast Mexico this afternoon as a 500mb trough across northwest Mexico and Baja California continues to bring Pacific moisture across northern Mexico into Texas.
848 AM PDT Fri Sep 29 2017 High pressure will bring warm inland weather today and patchy dense fog along the coast.
The upper level ridge will slowly slide eastward as a potent upper disturbance builds in over the west.
Highs will top out in the middle to upper 70s this afternoon, as lows drop into the lower to middle 50s again tonight.
Precipitation chances are expected to increase from SW-NE today, as difluence aloft increases in advance of an upper low lifting across western WY. Models consistently trend towards deepening the upper trough to our weset across the Great Basin over the weekend keeping us in a fairly active southwesterly upper flow while nudging colder airmass farther to the southeast into our area.
This is continuing to provide cooler and drier air into the state with northeasterly flow in place at the surface. Aloft, mid level ridging continues just south of the state providing srly flow to areas just west of the state.
An upper level low will continue to weaken as it treks northward across the Northern Rockies. Lows tonight are expected to dip into the low to mid 50s. Southerly winds strengthen this weekend as a lee trough develops across eastern Colorado and the pressure gradient tightens.
900 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2017 Water Vapor imagery and RAP H5 analysis show the area on the Ern periphery of an upper dome of high pressure centered over SE TX. An upper trof is digging across the Great Lakes region at the moment, and it's this feature that will traverse our area later today. This will bring a reinforcing/dry cold front across the CWFA by this evening, with cooler/drier air filtering into the area by morning. This will set the stage for morning lows in the middle 50s, with a few notoriously cooler spots in Srn Middle TN/NE AL falling between 50-55F.
00z models are in good agreement that this high pressure area will move east southeast today and by 30. Even though high pressure will be building across the Upper Mississippi River Valley today, the combination of residual low level moisture and cold air aloft will result in instability clouds building across Wisconsin from late this morning into the the mid afternoon.
We never really lose isentropic lift in the lowest part of the atmosphere throughout the day so we should continue to see cloudy and cool conditions through tonight and into Saturday morning.
Temperatures will be similar to yesterday and range from the upper 70s to near 80 degrees with low humidity values continuing as weak high pressure remains over the region. Tonight, the pressure gradient will be tightening up, as a reinforcing area of high pressure builds into the area at the surface. Much drier air will begin filtering into the area in the low-mid levels (850mb-600mb)so we should be seeing a near cloudless sky on Saturday. Dew points at the surface will be lowest on Saturday as well, with readings dropping into the lower to mid 40s by afternoon.
Canadian high pressure will settle across the region tonight, with clearing skies and light winds leading to a cool night across the region. Mostly sunny skies are expected on Saturday, with near normal highs in the lower to middle 60s.
Although generally mostly cloudy skies will persist based upon the CU rule and other moisture progs, believe temps will be slightly warmer than currently fcst out west and will thus raise slightly.
The cold front is out of the state of AL and cooler temps are really lagging behind. Today, a trough will swing through the Great Lakes and a reinforcing front will move into the region, finally allowing us to feel that cooler air. These cooler temps are actually seasonable values for this time of year, but for those that are tired of those summertime temps, we will welcome it. Expect breezy northeasterly winds keeping highs in the lower 80s under mostly clear skies.
Cloudy skies and light winds from the northeast, will produce highs today mainly in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Based on seasonal normals, for Abilene and San Angelo, those numbers are well below the lower to mid 80s normal highs, for late September.
No precipitation is expected with this front as the low levels will remain quite dry.
As stated in the prior discussion, the tighter pressure gradient behind the cold front will yield higher wind speeds today with gustier winds at times this afternoon. /10/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: Drier air continues to filter into the region behind a cold front currently located over south MS and LA.
Current temperatures around the district are generally running cooler than yesterday at this time with readings in the upper 50s and 60s.
Weak north-northeast flow today will hold temperatures down cooler than yesterday, especially across northern Iowa where CAA should be a bit stronger.
The early morning local sounding shows a backed profile in the lowest layers, under a deep south to southwest mid to upper level flow. Plenty of moisture in place with an elongated trough oriented N/S across the western portion of our service area. A weak trough of low pressure near the Florida Keys will result in increased rain chances at the EYW and MTH terminals through the afternoon.
A progressive pattern with a ridge moving in this afternoon into tonight will be followed by a trough across northern Utah Saturday.
750 AM EDT Fri Sep 29 2017 Aviation A cold front will progress south through the area today bringing with it a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms. Best chances for precipitation will come this morning along and ahead of the cold front. The cold front stretches from Northern Lower Michigan to Southern Wisconsin at 07z. Otherwise, high pressure will be sprawled across the area this weekend bringing dry weather.
A cold front will move onshore today spreading a brief period of rain followed by showers across much of the forecast area.
This pattern should break down over the weekend as the upper high portion migrates eastward and the upper low portion lifts northward, aided by the deeper trough pushing into the western CONUS. With the upper ridge spreading east into the middle of the country, it should result in generally quiet/dry weather through at least Saturday. By Saturday night, the upper ridge will shift to our east and we'll start to be more influenced by southwesterly flow and deeper troughing moving into the Intermountain area.
1108 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2017 A dry cold front is on the way through the region, with a wind shift to more northeasterly. 00Z short range models track low pressure se into Lake Ontario by sunset and push the cold front south across central IL during this morning and through southeast IL during early/mid afternoon hours. SW winds ahead of cold front to turn nw behind the front with gusts 15 to 20 mph this afternoon. 1030 mb Canadian high pressure over southern Manitoba will settle into the western Great Lakes by dawn Saturday and bring clear skies and lighter winds tonight. A cooler night ahead with lows in the low to mid 40s, coolest by Galesburg. Upper level ridge shifts east into IL on Saturday while Canadian high pressure sprawls across the Great Lakes region and ridges into IL.
Rex like pattern was over the western US with an upper level ridge over western Canada and an upper low over UT. Water vapor loop indicated an upper level ridge over western Canada with a short wave embedded over the northern ALTA/SASK border. Upper level ridge will roll over the area Fri night with ALTA short wave staying north of the area. Rex pattern will shear off as upper ridge moves east ahead of UT upper low. UT upper low will move out into the High Plains of MT late Fri night and into Sat. Cold front will move in from the west for Sun night.