Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND CROSS THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST ON MONDAY EVENING. PROXIMITY OF THE LOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE ON MONDAY.
WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC FRONT. /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015/ SFC ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN CONUS/NERN GULF RIDGING WWD OVER THE AREA. WHILE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES PUSHING NWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. WITH A DEEP TROF DIGGING ALL THE WAY INTO OLD MEXICO. WHILE SFC OBS/SATELLITE IMAGERY DENOTE PLENTY OF CUMULUS AND WARM TEMPS AROUND THE REGION (ALTHOUGH MANY SPOTS ARE A DEGREE OR THREE COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY).
DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD. AS WE ARE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT. WHILE THEY DO AGREE ON A S/W RIDGE AND DRY CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
138 PM PDT SUN MAY 10 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CREATE A PATCHY. COOLER WEATHER AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER MID WEEK AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO END THE WEEK AS A LOW DIGS ALONG THE COAST AND MOVES OVER SO CAL. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED WEAK RIDGING BUILDING OVER CENTRAL CA. AND A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE WARMER WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREAT, ESPECIALLY WITH A LOWER FREEZING LEVEL TODAY.
THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE HAS KEPT THE REGION GENERALLY DRY. SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE WILL BRING AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. IN THE MID-LEVELS RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
449 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT.
QUICK UPDATE FOR ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE E MTS. AS TEMPS COOL TONIGHT SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER AND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S AND COOLER. WITH A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THOUGH AGAIN WILL KEEP SLIGHT POPS CONFINED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
347 PM MDT SUN MAY 10 2015 UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO QUICKLY DEPART INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION DISSIPATING QUICKLY. TEMPERATURES HAVE BOUNCED BACK UP INTO THE MID 30S IN MANY SPOTS WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE HIGH MAY SUN ANGLE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SIGNIFICANT MELTING ON AREA ROADWAYS. THE LAGGING LLVL THERMAL TROUGH ALONG WHATEVER BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAT CAN BE MANAGED WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FALL WELL INTO THE 20S TONIGHT. NO NEED FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AS THE REGION IS STILL IN THE WINDOW OF AVERAGE LAST FREEZE AND THE ASSUMPTION OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AS AN UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES.
LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO STRETCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS THIS MORNING. WITH RIDGING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TS ANA OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE MIDWEST HAVE ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GENERALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CLOSED LOW WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY FROM COLORADO TO THE DAKOTAS. AND THE RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AS TS ANA MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE TRAILING END OF A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY EVENING AND SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA.
311 PM CDT Sun May 10 2015 Dry air in place across the entire area today so no severe weather expected, but a weak cold front arrives tomorrow and will be located around the lower Trans Pecos tomorrow afternoon possibly serving as a focus for severe convection.
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING THE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TOMORROW. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF A TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BY LATE MONDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
A WARM FRONT WILL THEN PASS OVER THE AREA LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. FOLLOWED BY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES EAST NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND SHOULD BE AROUND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TAKE THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AND ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY FRIDAY EVENING. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT AND ON FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS WILL BE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
MOST AVAILABLE LONG AND SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A BAND OF 2-4 INCH SNOWFALL ALONG AND OR JUST SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. AS THE LOW SHIFTS SE ARCTIC AIR WILL BEGIN FILTER SOUTHWARD. COULD SEE A BIT STRONGER WIND ON BACK SIDE OF THE LOW HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE AT OR BLO 20KTS PRODUCING SOME DRIFTING AT WORSE.
1134 PM CST WED JAN 13 2016 A pleasant day is underway across the region this afternoon, with southwest winds and sunny skies helping to boost temperatures into the low to mid 50s in many spots. Tonight will feature seasonably mild temperatures, with most places not falling below freezing. Some model guidance is suggesting this, though the current suspicion is that guidance is under-representing the amount of dry air in place in the low levels of the atmosphere. A quick moving upper level wave and associated surface cold front will start to move into the area Thursday night, with scattered rain showers developing along and just behind the front.
WITH WIDE RIDGE AXIS INBETWEEN /OMEGA BLOCK/. AS ENERGY /SHORT WAVES/ MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND EJECTS INTO THE BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.
THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE JUST THE TAIL-END OF A FRONT THAT IS NOW BRINGING PRECIP TO PARTS OF NORTHERN NV/UT. THE ONLY IMPACT FROM THESE CLOUDS WILL BE TO KEEP LOW TEMPS TONIGHT A LITTLE WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW LAST NIGHT. MAINLY IN THE MID-30 TO LOW-40 RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY. A QUICK MOVING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. BEING PUSHED EAST BY A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN CA/PAC NW. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT.
256 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING QUICKLY FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BRING RAIN FRIDAY.
MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATES, BUT OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHT.
359 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016 WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS AN UPPER TROF OVER SW TX SPLIT FROM THE MAIN FLOW UNDER A WEAK AREA OF RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS TROF IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD TODAY ACROSS OUR REGION. A SECONDARY TROF IN THE MAIN JET IS FCST TO DEVELOP ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES.
NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW A BROAD UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MANITOBA/ONTARIO WILL STEER THE WEATHER PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
325 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016 LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST IN BETWEEN THE STRONG LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND WEAK RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND INTO EASTERN ILLINOIS.
306 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WITH CLOUDS BUT DRY WEATHER. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION. WITH FREEZING FOG EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA. A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION YESTERDAY HAS BECOME QUASI- STATIONARY AND WAS DISSIPATING OVER THE MS/AL/GA I-20 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE DOMINATE OVER THE SE STATES WAS OTHERWISE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON TODAY'S SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN. AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL FLOW.
425 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. DUE TO THIS HAVE TAKEN THE DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE OUT OF THE FORECAST HOWEVER KEPT THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WENT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TODAY. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO HOLD OFF TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
Upper level ridging was occurring just to our west with low level warm advection pattern ongoing across the area. The southerly wind will help to usher in even warmer temperatures today and could see some locations eclipse 60 degrees this afternoon over western MO. Due to the speed of this system and lack of quality moisture, qpf amounts with this system will be on the low side with most locations receiving a tenth of an inch or less. Behind the cold front, much cooler temperatures will move into the area late Friday into Friday night when lows will return to the low to mid 20s.
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND. MOST OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS BEEN WELL EAST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. TROF AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OUT WEST WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT. ACTUALLY MORE OF A SFC TROF WITH LITTLE TO NO COOLING BEHIND IT.
AREAS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA ADJACENT TO THE SAND HILLS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 40S. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION OVERTOP THE COLD SNOWPACK WOULD FAVOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. BUT AS THE COOLER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. DEEPER SATURATION APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THER NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE CONCENTRATED THE HIGHEST POPS THERE.
MEANWHILE A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM MINERAL POINT WISCONSIN TO THE TWIN CITIES. TEMPERATURES WEST OF THIS FRONT WERE IN THE LOWER AND MID 20S. 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY. IT WILL CHANGE INTO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH MICHIGAN.
THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL THEN SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THEN WITH THE MID LEVELS FAIRLY DRY TONIGHT THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE BELOW 850 MB. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY CLOSE TO OR ABOVE FREEZING. SO INITIALLY MILDER THERMAL PROFILE AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTER WILL TRANSITION COLDER AS NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOWER LEVEL CYCLONE WRAPS COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA DURG THE AFTN.
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION. WITH FREEZING FOG EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA.
OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GRIDS TONIGHT AS BETTER MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA MOVING TO THE EAST. THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN INTO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES TO ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY. THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AND ONLY A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND MOVE NORTHEAST THURSDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE ON THURSDAY AS THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FRIDAY DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR DEPICTED ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. SOME QUESTION AS TO PTYPE WITH TEMPS RISING SLOWLY THROUGH THE LOWER/MID 30S. COULD SEE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN NWRN PA ESP INLAND. FRIDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES DRIVING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW AND FRONT.
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. COOLER AIR SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA AS A WEAK TROUGH PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY'S HIGHS.
450 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016 WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE RETURN OF NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD OF AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL IN BUFKIT PROFILES THAT DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE. THINKING THAT MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS GETTING ABOVE FREEZING.
WINDS WILL PICK UP INTO THE LOWER 20S WEST OF THE ESCARPMENT RESULTING IN A BIT OF A BREEZY DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES. MODEST COOLING ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 10 DEGREES WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF THURSDAY/S TROUGH RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE ON FRIDAY. EACH TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BRING A FROPA /OF VARYING MAGNITUDES/ ALONG WITH AT LEAST SLIM PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME POCKETS OF COOLER AIR NEAR THE ARKANSAS RIVER. TEMPERATURES ALOFT DECREASE WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGES SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER OVER THE PLAINS AND UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY DESPITE MIXING. MODELS OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WEAKER WITH THE SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE TROUGH THAT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AND WITH NW FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL SEE SOME LINGERING SHSN OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS. NOT MUCH OF A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE FRI TROUGH MOVES INTO WRN CO FRI MORNING. MAY END UP NEEDING AN ADVISORY FOR THE HIGH ZONES THERE.
AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING NEVADA THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION IN TO UTAH TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. BUT LITTLE OF THIS LOOKED TO HAVE REACHED THE GROUND WHICH IS NOT UNEXPECTED GIVEN THE DRY AIR THROUGH MUCH OF THE LOWER LEVELS.
A WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S EXPECTED. AM A BIT CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY KEEP LOWS WARMER.
HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 40S IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. SLICK CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AS TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING.
A COLD FRONT THEN SETTLES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND STALLS.
THE CATALYST FOR THIS TEMPERATURE CHANGE WILL BE WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND HEADS EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LESS MOISTURE. AS THE LOW APPROACHES. WITH THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. COLD AIR AND DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN LOW WILL THEN CHANCE THE PRECIPITATION BACK OVER TO ALL SNOW FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. ALONG WITH THE FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT.
A progressive upper level trough is evident on water vapor imagery moving through the central Rockies. However, that will be short-lived as the aforementioned cold front moves through the area tonight. The cold front will quickly exit the CWA by early Friday morning. Cold air advecting into the area on the backside of the front as well as cloudy conditions associated with the upper trough moving through the area on Friday will keep temperatures cool.
946 PM MST WED JAN 13 2016 WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY. LACK OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH THURSDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER 20S.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL SITES THURSDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL SITES THURSDAY MORNING. /ISSUED 441 PM CST WED JAN 13 2016/ WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN OUR AREA. A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW BUT ITS TIMING WILL BE LATE ENOUGH TO NOT AFFECT HIGH TEMPS UNTIL FRIDAY.
A pair of fronts will have the potential to produce more accumulating snow in the mountains and in the lowlands of north central and far northeast Washington for the weekend. However toward the mid overnight to Thursday morning the road temperature model suggest they may fall toward freezing which could make for a slick commute if roads are not treated. The exception to all this snow talk will be toward the lower Palouse/L-C Valley where milder air will mean a rain/snow mix.
Light winds and mostly clear skies tonight will give way to breezy southerly winds and increasing cloud cover during the day Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front.
AROUND A SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. BUT THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO KEEP WINDS UP EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE HIGH VALLEYS NEAR TN RIVER. THIS WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY AS DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. COOLER AIR SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA AS A WEAK TROUGH PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY'S HIGHS.
246 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016 A series of upper level troughs will move quickly across the plain states through the weekend. The first upper level trough will move across the northern and central plains today and tonight. Downslope flow near the trough combined with plenty of sunshine should help boost temperatures to above normal values today. These troughs are forecast this weekend to take a far more southeasterly track across the forecast area.
An upper level trough will move across western Kansas this evening. Ahead of this front, a warm downslope plume will advect eastward with 850-hPa temperatures in the lower teens. BOIverify shows a cold bias in NWP data, so using these warmer solutions seems prudent.
At the surface, a trough of low pressure stretched south along the lee of the Rockies with an area of low pressure moving east across the Dakotas. Right now there appears to be good agreement in the trough axis/front moving into north central KS by the late afternoon. However there does not appear to be much cold air behind the wind shift as cold air advection looks weak in the low levels. Think there should be enough insolation along with the thermal ridge to push highs into the upper 50s, or about 4 or 5 degrees warmer than yesterday.
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL SETTLE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM ALONG THE GULF COAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON FRIDAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH COUPLED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM S/W ADVANCING QUICKLY FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN A MEAN WLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. THIS FLOW WILL INDUCE A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THURSDAY AND WE GET INTO A LITTLE BIT OF WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 30S.
The next cold front will move through the region on Friday, and bring a decent chance of showers to much of the region.
A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO ARRIVE BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM LATE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. PROVIDING NORTHWEST WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE POPS AS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT.
1212 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE LOWEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE AT KBTR AND KMCB.
TO THE LOW 60S. TONIGHT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCES AND DEVELOPING MIDWEST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
1214 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016 AVIATION A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING. ARCTIC AIR AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND BEHIND THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. WARM FRONT TRIES TO DEVELOP OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY. WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR THURSDAY WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES NORTH GIVEN THE WEAK LOOK TO THIS FEATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE MORNING. COLD AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE LOW.
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT NOW EAST OF THE CWA. WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ND. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES NORTHWEST OF THE LOW. A SURFACE TROF EXTENDS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MT INTO EASTERN WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. WITH TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. TO THE LOW TO MID 50S OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS. COLDER AIR IS ON THE WAY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AND COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.