Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Forecast is on track with another warm afternoon with isolated showers and storms primarily within the higher terrain of SE OK and NW AR.
1237 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 At 3 AM, a cold front extended from Eau Claire WI to Oelwein IA. The cold front will likely move out of the area between 6 AM and 7 AM. For tonight, high pressure will build in across the area. Low temperatures on Wednesday morning will range from the lower 40s to lower 50s. From Wednesday into Wednesday night, high pressure will provide mainly mostly clear skies.
TS Nicholas will drift east overnight while an upper trough pushes through the Great Lake. This will send a cold front to near the KY/MO border by Wednesday morning. Meanwhile toward morning some precip associated with the approaching cold front may sneak into northern areas of the Mid-South. The Mid-South will be sandwiched between a cold front and the remnants of Nicholas on Wednesday.
South-southwest winds will increase to the 20-35 mph range Wed aftn over E ND/RRV ahead of next trough. Cooler than normal temperatures in the 60s to low 70s are expected across the region to round out the work week.
Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of, and eventually along, a cold front currently working its way through northeast Illinois. As the cold front approaches, shear will increase and storms can become organized into a squall line posing a damaging wind threat. High PWATs lead to a non-zero concern for heavy rainfall, paired with some parallel flow to the cold front. However, the cold front is overall expected to keep things moving along.
The cyclone and its associated showers and thunderstorms will continue moving north- northeastward across extreme southeast Texas today. Meanwhile, our area will see weak upper level ridging build in from the west as Nicholas pushes off to the east. (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Hot and dry will continue to be the story for the end of the week and through the weekend, thanks to the upper-level ridge building in across the southern Plains. High temperatures will steadily return to the mid to upper 90s as an 850mb thermal ridge also builds across west Texas over the next few days.
However, as we move into the tonight period, weak forcing along in the vicinity of the approaching upper trough/wave in the middle Mississippi valley should help sustain intermittent convection through the evening and most of overnight hours in the vicinity of the I-64 corridor.
This is likely a response to the broad upper-level trough north of the Dominican Republic, which is gradually showing better signs of organization. The formidable ridge that has resulted in gentle to moderate easterly flow over the last several days is gradually weakening, and winds have responded by slowly slackening. The upper-level trough is progged to promote tropical cyclogenesis off the southeastern United States.
Currently, the area sits in the wake of an upper level trough axis that swung through earlier today. Good warm advection will continue into tomorrow with mid-level ridging building over the central CONUS aloft.
(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Minor mid-level ridging today as said mid-level flow transitions to light nw. That nw component will advect warmer 7h temps sewd into SE NM/PB today and high temps will edge up a couple of degrees in agreement with 85h temp trends as well as MOS/NBM. On Wed a decaying outflow boundary/cold front will serve to increase MSLP and with some lowering mid-level heights high temps will trend down a few degrees. NAMBUFR sounding at MRF shows ML CAPES around 600 J/KG with some mid-level mstr along with subtle indications of a weak mid-level shrtwv trof that may provide some lift across SE NM/NW PB.
(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Another quiet day in store as dry air and ridging maintains a hold on the region. Heights will be a bit higher than yesterday, leading to highs topping out a few degrees warmer with 90s for many and triple-digits along the Rio Grande valley. High pressure over the plains will work in tandem with the flow from Nicholas, increasing 700mb winds from the NE, leading to moisture enhancement funneling in from OK. 3" areawide thanks to the advection regime during the overnight hrs, leading to lows being slightly warmer than the last few mornings. Guidance is carrying isolated storm chances for the high terrain of W TX through the SE NM plains Wednesday afternoon.
Models try to increase low/mid- level moisture and PoPs later on tonight across eastern part of the CWA as mid- level ridging weakens south of the region.
332 PM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021 High pressure continues today, bringing mostly dry and warm weather.
142 PM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021 Warm and mostly dry conditions will continue through this evening under high pressure. Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected Wednesday with a crossing cold front. The highest chances of severe storms are generally S of a DUJ-PIT-ZZV line, where FROPA timing should be later in the day.
326 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 Mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop in an area of convergence between Tropical Storm Nicholas and a strong area of high pressure over the Carolinas and Georgia. The weak trough axis mentioned earlier today continues to move east into western Tennessee at this time as well.
Combined with high pressure along the spine of the Appalachian Mountains, better moisture feed into SW portions of the Valley and the Plateau will bring a chance of some showers and the occasional rumble of thunder to the aforementioned area following a typical diurnal cycle. Additionally, an isolated shower is possible in the higher elevations of the eastern Tennessee mountains. KS Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 81 68 83 69 / 20 60 30 50 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 84 67 84 67 / 10 50 30 50 20 Oak Ridge, TN 67 82 65 83 67 / 20 60 30 40 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 84 64 81 64 / 10 50 30 50 20.
Even with the modest increase in moisture, we're still looking at a quiet weather day with temperatures reaching the low hundreds in the lower deserts. Since the upper high remains centered nearby to our west extending a ridge axis across southeast Arizona, subsidence will continue to squash vertical development.
Tuesday through Wednesday A cold frontal passage brought cooler temperatures back to the region today. By 2 PM most locations had only reached the low to mid 70s. Otherwise, winds will once again become southerly and increase, pulling slightly warmer air back into eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa.
scattered showers/storms were developing along a slow moving cold front positioned from west to east across Southern Kansas and extended northeast through Central/Eastern Missouri. scattered cumulus clouds were common across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas with a few showers developing within the higher terrain of Southeast Oklahoma/West Central Arkansas. Precip chances are then expected to increase this evening along/near the Kansas border as the cold front slowly sags southward toward the region.
156 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 A positively tilted upper level short wave trough over central Colorado will continue to move southeast. A cold front over east- central Colorado into west-central Kansas will continue to move south. This upper air disturbance and cold front are expected to spark a cluster of thunderstorms over southeast Colorado this afternoon which will spread southeast across much of the Panhandles tonight. Highs on Wednesday are expected to be a shade cooler than today with readings in the mid 80's to around 90.
Temperatures will then gradually decrease to near normal levels by the weekend as a trough of low pressure passes north of the region.
The main concern Wednesday/Wednesday night will be return flow and the depth of the moisture as the low level theta-e ridge (800-700MB) moves across Minnesota, and western Wisconsin.
With the increase in clouds and precip, max temperatures are expected to be several degrees cooler.
As of 20Z, the surface cold front has just about passed through the CWA except the southeast corner of Anderson County. Temperatures look cooler behind the front with highs around 80.
Low level southerly winds really ramp up later tonight and continue on Wednesday, ushering in some warmer air into the region, especially west of the Prairie Coteau. Wednesday night, a cold front will begin to work southeast into the CWA, likely making it as far as north central South Dakota by the end of the short term period.
533 PM MDT Tue Sep 14 2021 Water vapor shows upper trof axis shifting east of the Northern Plains with short wave ridge building into the Northern Rockies. Next upper trof is moving into BC. At the surface, high pressure is centered over western SD/NEB. Upper trof currently over BC will track quickly across southern Canada on Wednesday, with a prefrontal trof moving across northeast WY and western SD during the day. Thermal ridge overhead will result in temps climbing well into the 80s on the Plains with some lower 90s likely. NBM temps likely too cool and have sided closer to the warmer MOS guidance.
616 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 A cold front moved through the region dragging an area of showers in tow. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the cold front. The cooler air behind the front sets up for a fairly nice day Wednesday with highs only reaching the lower 80s. Southerly flow returns as the remnants of Hurricane Nicolas scamper off to the east enabling warmer and more moist air to advect northward keeping summer time vibes around for the next several days. Winds will gradually shift to the southeast tomorrow as high pressure moves east of the area.
829 PM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021 Warm, dry conditions will continue through this evening under high pressure. Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to start early tomorrow morning with a crossing cold front. The highest chances of severe storms are generally east PIT, where FROPA timing should be later in the day.
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather across the Bay area into midweek with seasonably hot and dry weather inland and in the hills.
GAH AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: A cold front will move through northeast Montana tomorrow bringing strong winds and low afternoon humidity. Much cooler conditions will follow the front with Canadian high pressure pushing south and ushering in more fall-like temperatures.
The weak upper trough axis just to the west will move across srn WI during the overnight. At the sfc, high pressure over the Middle MO River Valley will move across far srn WI during the afternoon. Gehring (Issued 247 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021) Tonight through Wednesday night: Cold front has shifted southeast of the area, with gusty west to northwest winds across the area. Lows are forecast in the upper 40s northwest to the lower 50s most other areas. High pressure moving into the region Wednesday will bring a pleasant day, before moving east of the region Wednesday night. Highs should reach the middle 70s in most areas, with lows Wednesday night in the lower to middle 50s.
With the low-level moisture, we should see some MVFR ceilings for the I35 sites by morning.
This is helping to develop cumulus clouds over the higher terrain and even an isolated thunderstorm south of the Chiricahuas, but the pattern isn't very conducive to producing more than that. The upper high remains centered nearby to our west extending a ridge axis across southeast Arizona, meaning that subsidence will continue to suppress vertical development. We're still looking at mostly quiet weather today with temperatures reaching the low hundreds in the lower deserts.
813 PM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021 High pressure continues today, bringing mostly dry and warm weather.
833 PM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021 High pressure extending into the region from offshore will weaken over the next couple of days as moisture increases from the Gulf Coast Region. Surface and upper ridge offshore will weaken a bit as moisture increases from the Gulf coast region ahead of the remnants of tropical storm Nicholas. CAM models suggest sea breeze front may be a possible trigger and weak short wave troughs possibly lifting north from Ga.
536 PM MDT Tue Sep 14 2021 Current satellite imagery showed a few areas of scattered to broken clouds in favored areas over the higher terrain of central Colorado. As previously mentioned, a brief area of high pressure will move into the CWA in the short term.
359 PM MDT Tue Sep 14 2021 Current satellite imagery showed a few areas of scattered to broken clouds in favored areas over the higher terrain of central Colorado. As previously mentioned, a brief area of high pressure will move into the CWA in the short term.
524 PM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021 Warm, dry conditions will continue through this evening under high pressure. Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to start early tomorrow morning with a crossing cold front. The highest chances of severe storms are generally S of a DUJ-PIT-ZZV line, where FROPA timing should be later in the day.
A weak mid-level ridge has developed over North Texas which has helped squash most precip earlier in the day and the loss of diurnal instability will end any precip chances tonight. There has been an eruption of storms across Southern KS along a cold front that will move south tonight. Expect highs to be slightly warmer tomorrow, in the upper 80s to low 90s, with gusty northeast winds in the afternoon.
It was supporting a cold front passing southeast through the Midwest. Deep moisture streaming from Nicholas was beginning to get picked up ahead of the mid latitude trough. As the trough continues slowly eastward, the cold front will approach us from the northwest. However, on Wednesday and Wednesday night it should stall and fade out as it nears the Appalachians due to its supporting upper trough continuing east and leaving it behind. A fair amount of instability coupled with some very modest shear associated with the trough glancing our area could also give a few storms with decent gusts. The trough departs Wednesday night, and so does the best deep moisture.
448 PM MDT Tue Sep 14 2021 A cold front will move through northeast Montana tomorrow bringing strong winds and low afternoon humidity. Much cooler conditions will follow the front with Canadian high pressure pushing south and ushering in more fall-like temperatures.
Cumulus field continues to thicken across south-central and southeast Kansas, suggesting convergence in vicinity of the slowly approaching cold frontal zone. Thinking the greatest potential for this would be somewhere along/near the Highway 50 or 54 corridors per latest observational and short-term model trends.
606 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 An upper-level trough over the region will continue to propagate to the east into the overnight hours helping high pressure build overhead. As high pressure moves in, skies will clear out helping low temperatures drop into the low 40s to low 50s. High pressure will continue tomorrow, providing mostly sunny skies and slightly warmer temperatures with highs in the low to mid 70s.
Initially all of this activity started north of the lower and middle Keys and then drifted west northwest across he southeast Gulf waters. Weak ridging in place will continue to maintain east to southeast gentle breezes through Wednesday. Thereafter, a broad trough in the Western Atlantic is expected to organize into a weak tropical cyclone by late week. This will cause a disruption in the ridge.
Will begin this evening with mostly VFR CIGs and barely MVFR VSBYs due to fog and will then quickly transition to solid MVFR by midnight for both VSBYS and CIGs then mostly IFR the remainder of the period due to both CIGs/VSBYs (LIFR will be possible in heavy downpours but brief and mainly south of the highway 84 Corridor and west of I-65). Again, this will particularly be so generally south of the Highway 84 Corridor, with more likely areas of light to moderate rain, drizzle and fog north of Highway 84 after sunrise and enduring the remainder of the TAF Period.
647 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 (This evening through Wednesday) Mostly clear, warm and dry the next 24 hours with weak northwest flow aloft and weak ridging at the surface. Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid 60s with highs Wednesday around 90. (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Hot and dry will continue to be the story for the end of the week and through the weekend, thanks to the upper-level ridge building in across the southern Plains. High temperatures will steadily return to the mid to upper 90s as an 850mb thermal ridge also builds across west Texas over the next few days.
804 PM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021 High pressure across the region continues overnight then begins to break down Wed as what is currently Tropical Storm Nicholas moves along the northern Gulf coast and a trough of low pressure east of the Bahamas slides toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. with the highest coverage inland. High pressure across the waters begins to break down with easterly flow becoming more southerly during the next few days. By the weekend high pressure start to build in from the Atlantic.
Pleasant conditions will continue through today with northwesterly flow and high pressure building into the area. Drier air has worked into the region behind yesterday's cold front, but winds are forecast to remain relatively light, thus preventing any fire weather concerns this afternoon. Mid to upper level flow will also strengthen with an upper level low advancing east across Canada. Behind Wednesday's front, a return to cooler temperatures is expected across the area to close out the work week.
At 2 PM, the cold front was located from the southeast tip of Iowa through Chicago, and it's moving steadily east. The front reached much of eastern Iowa prior to 9 AM, and held back temperatures there to the lower to mid 70s. Farther east, a brief time in the warm sector prior to the front has resulted in highs in the lower to mid 80s, then after the fropa, temperatures falling back to the upper 70s. Lows tonight, with light winds after Midnight will fall to the lower to mid 50s. Key Message: 1) Mostly dry and warmer than normal temperatures can be expected.
610 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 (This evening through Wednesday) The cold front in Kansas will shift toward the Oklahoma border this evening. Higher chances of storms will be with storms rolling off the High Plains of Colorado this evening and moving east-southeast toward northwestern Oklahoma.
Day (This evening through Wednesday) The cold front in Kansas will shift toward the Oklahoma border this evening. Higher chances of storms will be with storms rolling off the High Plains of Colorado this evening and moving east-southeast toward northwestern Oklahoma.
A weak cold front is located to our north, extending roughly from Wichita, to St Louis, to Detroit. TS Nicholas will drift east overnight while an upper trough pushes through the Great Lake. This will send a cold front to near the KY/MO border by Wednesday morning. Meanwhile toward morning some precip associated with the approaching cold front may sneak into northern areas of the Mid-South. The Mid-South will be sandwiched between a cold front and the remnants of Nicholas on Wednesday.
/Issued 156 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021/ A positively tilted upper level short wave trough over central Colorado will continue to move southeast. A cold front over east- central Colorado into west-central Kansas will continue to move south. This upper air disturbance and cold front are expected to spark a cluster of thunderstorms over southeast Colorado this afternoon which will spread southeast across much of the Panhandles tonight. Highs on Wednesday are expected to be a shade cooler than today with readings in the mid 80's to around 90.
254 AM MDT Wed Sep 15 2021 08z surface analysis had high over KOAX and lee trough/developing warm front from central MT into central WY. Water vapour loop had upper trough over BC/AB with jet extending into the northwest CONUS. Today/tonight, upper trough moves into south central Canada pushing warm front through the CWA with trailing cold front dipping into eastern MT/WY overnight. Low level thermal ridge expands into the region. Thursday, cold front moves through the CWA. Highs Thursday will be in the 70s behind the cold front and 80s ahead of it.
1029 PM MDT Tue Sep 14 2021 Water vapor shows upper trof axis shifting east of the Northern Plains with short wave ridge building into the Northern Rockies. Next upper trof is moving into BC. At the surface, high pressure is centered over western SD/NEB. Upper trof currently over BC will track quickly across southern Canada on Wednesday, with a prefrontal trof moving across northeast WY and western SD during the day. Thermal ridge overhead will result in temps climbing well into the 80s on the Plains with some lower 90s likely. NBM temps likely too cool and have sided closer to the warmer MOS guidance.
245 AM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021 Recent water vapor imagery showing a broad, low-amplitude upper trough progressing east across the Great Lakes and central Plains regions, nearly out of Kansas at 07Z. An associated cold front was settling south into the southern Plains though elevated showers and thunderstorms linger not far to the south.
and Thursday High pressure is building into the area this morning, bringing a cool start to the day, with lows in the 40s and 50s. Any activity that does try to push into the area Thursday morning is expected to dissipate rather quickly, with the rest of Thursday featuring gusty south winds and warmer temperatures.
222 AM MDT Wed Sep 15 2021 During the day today, compressional heating ahead of a cold front will raise temperatures into the 80s. Humidity will drop into the low to mid teens with winds increasing into the afternoon with gusts 25 to 35 mph. A cold front will move into the area this evening, switching winds to the north. Above normal temperatures Wednesday will lead to below normal temperatures Thursday as a trough digs into the area.
High pressure will continue over the area but the upper level trough across the Great Lakes will push a cold front into the Ohio Valley by 12Z Wednesday morning. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 67 81 68 82 / 50 30 40 30 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 66 84 67 84 / 40 30 40 20 50 Oak Ridge, TN 82 66 83 66 84 / 50 30 30 20 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 64 83 63 84 / 40 40 40 20 40.
However, as we move into the tonight period, weak forcing along in the vicinity of the approaching upper trough/wave in the middle Mississippi valley should help sustain intermittent convection through the evening and most of overnight hours in the vicinity of the I-64 corridor. Removed most weather from the area by Wednesday evening into Thursday, as the main trough axis remains just south of the area. Cloud cover will still be focused across parts of west Kentucky as the upper trough remains in the vicinity.
Cold front and resulting line of strong to severe convection that swept thru Michigan yesterday has pushed SE of our state. Large area of high pressure centered over the Northern Plains is now building into the Western Great Lakes region. Broad upper level trough axis remains just west of Michigan. Weak wave riding thru the upper trough axis is making a dent in low level ridging trying to build into Northern Michigan. Temps are dropping thru the 50s on their way to overnight lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s thanks to ongoing CAA behind the cold front. Upper trough axis will ride thru Michigan today. Weak low level trough axis producing isold showers across our CWA early this morning will exit east our of our area. High temps this afternoon will warm mainly into the lower 70s.
317 AM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021 The region will be situated between high pressure to the east and a low pressure trough to the west today. The winds will be out of a southerly direction, and will usher warmer air into the region. The trough, and its associated frontal boundary, will reach the western CWA late tonight, then tracks across the rest of the CWA during the day Thursday. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 50s across north central South Dakota, to the lower 60s across south central and northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota.