Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
General agreement exists among the models for continued southerly flow with dew points remaining in the lower 30s or creeping into mid 30s overnight. Temperature-wise, made little change to lows tonight, which reflect cooler west for clear skies to start and warmer east for higher winds. Kept highs in the mid 50s east of Hwy 83 where stratus is slower to lift through the day, which is closer to the cooler MET guidance. A prefrontal trough will migrate across the region on Tuesday as the next short wave reaches the Northern and Central Plains by late afternoon. A weak cold front will move through the area Tuesday night.
Went with the warmer MAV guidance for overnight lows tonight but this may still be too cool depending on cloud cover. Model soundings indicate that the low level moisture will be deepest over far south central Kansas by Monday morning. Elsewhere, stratus will be slowly eroding from the west as the low level flow takes on a downslope component. This will also result in a decent temperature gradient across southwest Kansas with highs ranging from the mid 50s along the Highway 183-281 corridor to near 70 along the Colorado border. This will push a cold front through western and central Kansas Tuesday evening.
It will be dry with a warming trend from this afternoon through Tuesday as high pressure settles over the area.
Areas of Low Clouds and Fog Plains Tonight then Sunny and Warmer Low clouds and moisture continue to hang close to the eastern Colorado border this afternoon. Looks like one target area for the low clouds and fog tonight will be along and north of the Arkansas River, east of the I25 corridor. The surface air under the high level moisture is very dry.
Some light reflectivities are moving across NE Tennessee and SW Virginia overnight associated with the trough moving across our north.
1149 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017 Not much change in the last 24 hours as persistent stratus lingers over much of the Northland under high pressure. There may be pockets of freezing drizzle out there, but have yet to receive any reports of it despite some indication on radar and a 4 SM HZ report at KINL. An 850 mb warm front begins to nose into the region, but the end result will be slightly warmer temperatures on Monday. Also, fog is a possibility tonight again as the slightly warmer air moves over the snow.
A ridge axis aloft is centered overhead and while this is squashed by a weak wave over North Dakota the main effect of this feature will be for some higher clouds to move across the forecast area tonight and early Monday. At this point, mixing to 900mb yields highs around 50s in the James and 40s to the east so will stick with something more akin to the previous forecast highs compared to the blended guidance which is lower thanks to the NAM/Canadian cooler temps due to less mixing/stratus.
/issued 145 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017/ Wx map shows cold front over OK/N TX this afternoon, with high pressure ridging from the East Coast to the Gulf Coast. The cold front will move through the region this evening and overnight, bringing slightly cooler and drier air over the area.
/issued 210 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017/ The cold front has pushed well s of the Pecos River with widespread low clouds e of the mtns with some patches fog, see visible satellite imagery for a clear depiction. All areas are expected to see sunshine return Tue PM and temps will shoot up to above normal readings with patchy fog again possible Wed AM across parts of the PB ahead of a cold front. Another quick warm-up Thur with lee tough/thermal ridge. Much drier/winder Fri as a fast moving cold front is likely to re-enforce much drier air late Fri into Sat AM setting up cooler wx Sat PM-Sun PM.
1101 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017 Fog continues to develop across parts of southern Arkansas at this time as skies start to clear out in the wake of Sundays cold frontal passage. Light rain continues to exit the state as a cold front continues its way south. Although the cooler air was still lagging back over the N part of the state. Weak ridge of high pressure wl briefly settle ovr AR on Mon, with slightly cooler temps noted. The high wl shift EWD Mon ngt and Tue, with clouds once again back on the incrs as SELY winds return.
Surface lee troughing on Monday will attempt to erode the stratus layer. It it somewhat unclear on how far the low stratus layer will erode creating a day with a strong contrast in temperatures from west to east. Stronger lee troughing/surface cyclogenesis will occur on Tuesday clearing out low stratus but may still linger in the Rolling Plains for a good portion of the day. A more West Texas fall like pattern will emerge by mid week with warmer temperatures, stronger winds, and a drier atmosphere.
412 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 Mostly cloudy skies will prevail today, with highs climbing into the low 40s. Expect any remaining drizzle and fog to gradually diminish through the early morning hours as moisture dwindles and the upper level ridge makes its way in. With high pressure building in and fairly progressive upstream clearing was originally planning to clear clouds out pretty quick today, though I am hesitant to do so as we are well socked in right now beneath the inversion. The back edge of the low cloud deck has now reached into north central Illinois but as is common this time of year, Lake Michigan influence should delay improvement trend somewhat. Confidence remains somewhat on the low side regarding timing back to VFR however due to persistence of low level inversion.
216 AM MST Mon Nov 13 2017 Upper level ridge builds over the Northern Plains on today, allowing high temperatures to climb into the lower 60s for many location on the plains. Weak trof flattens the ridge on Tuesday, with dry cold front moving through western South Dakota.
413 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 A trough of low pressure moves across the area through this afternoon, then pushes off the coast this evening.
1204 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 High pressure will remain over the area tonight.
211 AM MST Mon Nov 13 2017 Dry weather with periods of high clouds will persist this week as high pressure remains over the region or situated just to our south. A storm system passing to the north later in the week could bring slightly cooler temperatures and some breezes to the Southwest. To our south, high pressure remains over Mexico while a trough digs into the Pacific Northwest. Models indicate warmer air associated with this high pressure will expand into our area today pushing up surface temperatures by a degree or two. The aforementioned Pacific trough will gradually dig south and east this week as several systems move through the trough.
The warm frontal precipitation with this system isn't very impressive, owing in part to the fact that there's not much cold air in place over us at the moment. So the majority of the area will have to wait for the cold front to bring us precipitation. The post-cold frontal winds in the afternoon will be breezy to windy, but not enough to warrant any impact concerns. This should help to break up the lower ceiling at KEAT and KMWH. For the remaining sites, rain will come around midday Monday with the cold front. Gusty southeast winds will precede the cold front, which will switch the winds to southwesterly when the cold front passes by.
327 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017 06Z surface data has high pressure from the Great Lakes into the lower Mississippi Valley. However, given the light winds across the area and the low sun angle for the time of year the possibility does exist that the fog may not completely lift. Tonight, RAP trends indicate the low clouds will slowly move back into the area from the west. Atmospheric profiles are pointing to the potential for drizzle not long after the low clouds move back into the area.
1200 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017 Current GOES-16 water vapor imagery along with 12Z upper air analysis shows mid level short wave from the Great Lakes into the midwest progressing eastward while low amplitude ridge builds into the Rockies. Corresponding 500 mb height falls of 30-40 meters noted with the trough, with height rises of 60 meters associated with the ridge. Winds are light and variable over the CWA as we sit under high pressure.
850 PM PST Sun Nov 12 2017 Warmer weather will occur Monday as less cloudiness is expected.
409 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 Cloudy and cool weather will affect the region today as high pressure slowly builds in. The center of the high will cross over the region on Tuesday.
With the passage of the 850mb trof, a weak reinforcing surface front will drop south across the area, but this will only act to bring another surge of low-mid level dry air into the region while maintaining the light northeasterly surface flow through Monday. Lows tonight will range from the the lower 50s over northern counties to the mid and upper 50s near the coast. Highs on Monday expected to range from the mid and upper 60s across the north to the lower 70s toward southern counties and along the coast.
KDHT has recently dropped to IFR and KAMA has remained the lowest with LIFR conditions. By Tuesday, zonal flow aloft will take over from the slight northwest flow as upper level high pressure in southwest Mexico slides back towards the tip of the Baja Peninsula.
The aforementioned cold front will continue sweeping eastward Monday, and by Monday night, the upper level trough driving it will swing off the eastern seaboard. Temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal with highs in the low 70s Monday and upper 60s to low 70s on Tuesday. Lows will be in the mid-upper 40s Monday night then in the low-mid 40s Tuesday night.
1234 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 Low pressure brings rain across the area overnight into Monday. High pressure crosses Tuesday.
1255 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 An approaching cold front will cross the area late tonight into Monday morning.
Surface analysis this evening places a weak cold front bisecting the Mid-South this evening. /issued 307 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017/ A cold front currently stretches from Little Rock, Arkansas to Union City, Tennessee. Behind the front, cooler temperatures will begin to filter into the Mid-South. Highs will range from the lower 50s to the lower 60s. The high will begin to shift east on Tuesday. A few showers could skirt Northeast Arkansas on Tuesday ahead of a developing low pressure system.
At the surface, a high pressure ridge continues to slide southeast over the area which has led to sunny skies and fairly light winds.
As the high builds in overnight and winds become nearly calm expect the dense fog to become widespread. Despite temps below freezing I have left out any mention of frost deposition and slick surfaces, as this is a radiational fog and typically deposition is most favored with moisture advection. The highest amount reported was from Mount Carroll Illinois, where a spotter measured a little more than half an inch. High pressure with a light or calm wind will settle across the forecast area and with the recent rain/wet snow, fog development is a good bet. High temperatures will be in the upper 40s north of Interstate 80 with highs in the low 50s south. Overnight lows will be near freezing across the north and the upper 30s in the south.
The warm frontal precipitation with this system isn't very impressive, owing in part to the fact that there's not much cold air in place over us at the moment. So the majority of the area will have to wait for the cold front to bring us precipitation. The post-cold frontal winds in the afternoon will be breezy to windy, but not enough to warrant any impact concerns. A bigger concern will be the chance for LLWS 17-20z for the KGEG/KSFF/KCOE corridor as winds aloft increase ahead of the cold front.
1214 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 Light rain chances will continue through this morning with crossing low pressure. Dry and cool conditions are then expected under high pressure until the next disturbance crosses by midweek. Surface observations continue to show above freezing temperatures, and this is expected to continue while precip is falling. Temperatures should be around freezing N of I 80 in some locations by sunrise, but rain is expected to have ended by then. Saturation could remain held against the high terrain Tuesday morning, leaving some potential for drizzle, but temperatures will largely be above freezing so FZDZ is not a concern at this time.
Currently, mostly low lying areas-river valleys seeing the lowest visibilities, but expect that to become more widespread. With temps at/below 32 F, icy spots on untreated roads, sidewalks, bridges and overpasses it likely. For tonight, the models are in agreement that the low clouds currently located over northwest Wisconsin and northern Minnesota will move southeast into western Wisconsin. Low temperatures will be in the teens in central and north-central Wisconsin and in the lower and mid-20s across the remainder of the Upper Mississippi River Valley. On Monday, the clouds will gradually increase as a short wave trough approaches the region from the Northern Plains. This will gradually moisten the low levels of the atmosphere. The threat of freezing drizzle is highly dependent upon on how fast this will occur.
The progression of both these features will flatten the area of high pressure situated to our south and allow for southwesterly flow to persist over our region.
Trailing upper trough axis just behind and along with bringing an end to the precip. Upper trough axis to continue swinging across the area overnight.
Otherwise, a mostly cloudy and warmer than normal night is expected.
Should drop into the teens in the snowcover area should occur but otherwise not a huge fall off tonight as warm advection gets going in the low levels. Warmer air moves in. By Tuesday, a ridge aloft brings temperatures rebounding to near normal values, with highs in the 30s to 40s and lows generally in the 20s. Warming will be most dominant for areas without remaining snowpack, generally along and south of the Highway 200 corridor.
/issued 252 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017/ (Tonight and Monday) As of 2 PM, the cold front could be seen in radar imagery moving south through the Concho Valley. Overnight as the front continues south, isentropic lift increases in the low levels with warm, moist air riding up over the top of the cooler surface air mass. As temperatures warm during the day Monday, expect the fog and drizzle to clear out of most of the area by late morning, except for areas well north of I-20 where it may remain cooler into the afternoon hours.
403 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 A trough of low pressure moves across the area through this afternoon, then pushes off the coast this evening.
Cold front extending from the low toward N. Biggest concern will be the strong winds out ahead of this front with model boundary layer winds on the order of 25 to 30 mph across portions of Malhuer and Harney counties and extending into the higher terrain of Owyhee county. some gusts reaching over 40 mph possible but mainly across the higher terrain.
315 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 Light rain chances will continue through the morning with crossing low pressure. Dry and cool conditions are then expected under high pressure until the next disturbance crosses by midweek. Surface observations continue to show mainly above freezing temperatures, and this is expected to continue while precip is falling. Will monitor near freezing temperatures in the higher terrain of Garrett county, though the majority of mesonet stations are above freezing, and there is less precip coverage there. The high should maintain dry weather through Tuesday night as it slides east.
Rain showers will linger into this evening (mainly east) until an upper low exits the region. After that, high pressure will strengthen over the region, resulting in dry conditions through Tuesday evening.
336 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017 Increasing thin cirrus has only had minor effects on the freezing mist/fog this morning across central MN and WI. Temperatures will be above freezing, except early evening toward Rice Lake and Ladysmith where a brief period of freezing drizzle is possible. No icing is expected with temps rising above freezing relatively quickly following the onset. The GEM/EC have been slower for the late week system, and has allowed for much warmer air to move northward.
In the upper levels a trough is over the Eastern U. At the surface a weak cold front will move through the region today. By late morning or early afternoon clouds will move out as a cold front moves through. Highs will be mainly in the low 70s.
Now NE wind may improve fog, but the 850mb trough is hung up over head keeping a bit more low and mid clouds from Shreveport to Monroe.
326 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 A weak cold front has been traversing the area overnight and will continue moving southeastward out of the area through this morning.
As the high shifts off to the east southeast Monday, return flow will setup across the state. Still expected to see cooler temperatures tonight with the clear skies and waa not kicking in until late tonight. Very low level moisture to stick around especially in areas where the low clouds hung around this afternoon, thus expect near saturation tonight.
Tonight and Monday A mid level trough is forecast to be east of Wisconsin by 00Z Monday and continue to move away from the state tonight and Tuesday as a weaker short wave passes to the north.
357 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 The morning surface analysis shows a cold front exiting east, with most sites reporting west to northwest winds this morning. An area of high pressure is building east behind this front and a reasonable pressure gradient is setup across the area. Tonight the high pressure will build east and crest across Ohio. This will mitigate much of the usual ridge/valley splits in temperatures tonight. We will also see improvements in temperatures given clearing skies and some weak return flow around the high. There are two systems (both cold fronts) which will affect the area during the period.
333 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 The morning surface analysis shows a cold front exiting east, with most sites reporting west to northwest winds this morning. An area of high pressure is building east behind this front and a reasonable pressure gradient is setup across the area. Tonight the high pressure will build east and crest across Ohio. This will mitigate much of the usual ridge/valley splits in temperatures tonight. We will also see improvements in temperatures given clearing skies and some weak return flow around the high. The model guidance in some cases has been lifting the lower stratus too quickly when compared to the time heights and forecast sounding data.
1004 PM MST Sun Nov 12 2017 Dry high pressure will be over the western and central Wyoming tonight and Monday. Some light snow showers will develop late Monday night increasing across the western mountains on Tuesday as southwest winds become quite strong over the higher ridges and passes of the west as well.
1133 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 Aviation Mixed light rain and snow will come to and end this evening as high pressure moves across the lake.
A weak upper level trough will then graze northern Utah Tuesday, followed by a potentially stronger and colder trough late in the week.
332 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 Low pressure tracking off the Mid-Atlantic coast will slide well south of the region today into tonight.
Some uncertainty with coverage and duration of drizzle, and when/where the lowest ceilings will occur exist so amendements may be necessary. /issued 338 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017/ Overall, the main change in weather behind the recent cold front was a wind shift.
1246 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 A weak trough will move along the coast late tonight. Weak low pressure and a cold front will approach from the west tonight and cross Monday.
For Monday, models show the a deepening trough across the Ohio valley, which will sag southward and help keep enough moisture and overall instability across Florida for justifying keeping mention of slight chances of thunderstorms in the afternoon hours. This overall weather pattern will continue through the end of the work week, then another cold front will approach the area for the upcoming weekend. The gradient between a stalled frontal boundary and strong high pressure to the north will lead to several days of fresh to strong east-northeast winds.
If cloud cover remains in place through the overnight period, temperatures could be several degrees warmer than currently forecast.
The hurricanes continues to leave a trailing trough across the area with light north-northeasterly flow. Most showers and storms diminish after sunset, with a few lingering overnight near the trough over the local Atlantic and east coast.
A mid/upper level disturbance in the Gulf of Alaska this morning will develop into an amplifying trough through tonight as it moves SE toward the WA/OR coast. The trough moves inland into the Pacific Northwest during the day on Wednesday with dynamic lift associated with the trough keeping periods of showers in the mountains on Wednesday. Wednesday night the western flank of the upper trough enters the forecast area with sinking motion providing subsidence and drying conditions at lower elevations thus resulting in showers tapering off and ending Wednesday evening in rain shadowed ares.
530 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 At 3 AM, weak 850 mb moisture convergence associated with the low level jet is resulting in scattered showers along north of the Interstate 94 corridor in Wisconsin. For tonight, the 850 mb moisture transport will increase dramatically ahead of an approaching longwave trough. As the main short wave energy ahead of this trough ejects into northern Minnesota, this line will slow and weaken as it moves east across eastern Minnesota and northeast Iowa. On Wednesday, a cold front will push east across the Upper Mississippi River Valley.
241 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 A persistent ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will maintain fair, warm and generally dry weather during the entire upcoming week, and likely through the weekend as well. Overnight weather will have a very familiar feel with persistent ridge of high pressure remaining in control. Tuesday will once again begin with the locally dense valley fog, burning off to a partly-mostly sunny afternoon as the upper ridge axis continues to reside right over central PA. For much of this period, a 500 hPa ridge will dominate our weather.
Hurricane Jose tracks north then northeast along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts while ridging aloft resides over the Gulf of Mexico.
Late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, a cold front is expected to drop into the Panhandles. Northerly winds and a cooler airmass over the area will help to keep out high temperatures near normal across the northern zones.
We will undergo minor height rises on Wednesday as upper level winds begin to back in advance of the next upper level trough.
There is some model differences in regards to the surface wind/pressure pattern and especially the high temperatures. Guidance is warmer for the eastern portion but that may be a little cool. Temperatures fluctuate as a couple of rounds of cooler air filter into the region. An upper low pushes across southern Canada on Tuesday evening with a cold front extending south across the northern Plains into Colorado. A wave pushes the cold front through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, but with the main system to the north, am expecting dry conditions.
Low pressure will begin to take shape across the Northern Plains today with a tightening pressure gradient to our west. The period from Wednesday onward will feature a long wave trough developing across the western US, placing our area in a southwest mid level flow with a large ridge to our east.
248 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Persistence will dominate the forecast for the upcoming seven days as an upper ridge remains over the middle part of the country.
The wave will begin to dampen as it works east into the ridge axis over the southeastern states. The slow moving mid level trough will be slow to exit to the east on Wednesday and could spark a few showers or storms in the east or southeast before it moves away from us by mid to late afternoon.