Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
942 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2020 It has been a quiet morning across west central and southwest Florida as high pressure ridges over the region. Temps are already in the mid 80's and will continue to heat up into the low to mid 90's this afternoon. High pressure ridging across central Florida will produce light winds across the gulf waters today. The ridge shifts farther north on Thursday which will produce easterly winds around 10 knots over the gulf waters through the end of the week and into the weekend.
(Today and tonight) The upper-level low pressure area is very apparent in the water vapor satellite loop this morning in the Clovis/Portales New Mexico area. Showers and storms will be likely again ahead of this low, although with the current projected path, the highest liklihood of heavy rainfall has shifted a bit farther south into Texas. As the low moves east-southeast, precipitation chances will decrease tonight in central Oklahoma, so will shift the expiration time of the central Oklahoma portion of the flood watch to 00Z this evening.
This drier air is beneath deep- layer ridging, which will be a recurring theme through the next several days. Mainly isolated coverage of showers and thunderstorms will favor the western/northwestern portions of the CWA through Thursday night, closer to upper-level troughing.
637 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2020 Upper level zonal flow will keep systems quickly crossing the forecast area, but there will be a brief ripple of high pressure today before the next system takes aim at the Northland tonight into Thursday.
Dewpoints remain in the mid to upper 30s, so getting current temps in the 40s and low 50s down to freezing is further inhibited. Hot and dry day coming for Wednesday, as a trough passing along the MT/Canada border will tighten the gradient aloft during the afternoon. The passing trough will bring a brisk cold front diving southward for areas east of the Divide, moving into northern WY just after sunset and up against the Wind River Range by midnight. Thursday will be slightly cooler for northern and central WY behind the front, while southern WY remains in the warmer and drier airmass. With the midlevel trough moving well to the east, midlevel gradient will relax, resulting in much lighter winds for the state Thursday afternoon.
For tonight, I don't expect temperatures to get quite as cool as this morning as a long expected cold front passes through overnight and maintains good mixing. We will be quite breezy behind this cold front passage with the best height rises occurring in the morning, lending to wind gusts pushing 30 mph at least. I expect lows to be in the upper 50s to near 60, again, siding with warmer guidance, and maybe a tad warmer than the warmer guidance thanks to the anticipated mixing. Thursday will be cooler behind the cold front that passed through during the early morning hours with highs near 80 to the mid 80s. I am generally siding with warmer guidance.
1035 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2020 Warm and humid weather with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are expected through Thursday with the approach and passage of a cold front. Cooler, more comfortable conditions are expected by late week. Additional development is then progged for the afternoon with the advancement of the cold front.
At the surface, an approaching shallow cold front will stall from the Ohio River Valley to the Southern Plains. Increasing subsidence from the ridge will keep most of the area dry today, especially as drier surface air from the Gulf rotates around the ridge and enters the TN Valley this afternoon. The highest chance of showers and thunderstorms will be over northwestern AL and portions of southern middle TN, but none of these are expected to be strong. Increasing moisture convergence ahead of the approaching cold front will allow isolated to scattered storms to develop on Thursday.
1059 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2020 Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will become limited by mid to late week as an upper ridge builds over the area and slightly drier air moves into the area. A weak cold front will move into the area from the north over the weekend, and this may lead an increase in showers and thunderstorms with temperatures closer to normal. Ridging will expand northward into the forecast area (FA) today. Upper level ridge remains over the area. Upper level low in the southern Plains/Texas with broad trough from the northern Plains to the northeast CONUS. Moisture appears focused offshore around subtropical ridge and in the Carolina Mountains ahead of a cold front in warm advection. Low temps in the low to mid 70s.
642 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2020 (Today and tonight) The upper-level low pressure area is very apparent in the water vapor satellite loop this morning in the Clovis/Portales New Mexico area. Showers and storms will be likely again ahead of this low, although with the current projected path, the highest liklihood of heavy rainfall has shifted a bit farther south into Texas. As the low moves east-southeast, precipitation chances will decrease tonight in central Oklahoma, so will shift the expiration time of the central Oklahoma portion of the flood watch to 00Z this evening.
Temperatures will climb into the low to mid 90s across the area both days. Models continue to show a skinny upper ridge over the northern Gulf coast with weak troughing to the northwest and easterly flow over the central Gulf.
Further south toward the KC Metro area, conditions are trending toward hazy, but for now have held off on the dense fog mention, due to the urban island keeping the metro a couple degrees warmer, as well as the presence of the aforementioned low/mid clouds in the area. Those who were anticipating an infusion of cooler fall-like air will need to wait a few mores days as forecast temperatures for the late part of the week into the weekend have trended back toward normal or slightly above normal.
Temperatures are generally in the low to upper 70s areawide. This low will eject several perturbations into the Mid-South, keeping a healthy chance of showers and thunderstorms over the area.
Issued by National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 702 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2020 High pressure will continue to dominate weather conditions across all terminals through the period.
This is consistent with h700mb temperatures in the high single digits celsius. A strong Pacific cold front moving through British Columbia this morning will arrive in Nebraska late tonight and be south of the state by Thursday morning. No rain and just sparse cloudiness is expected with the cold front.
817 AM MDT Wed Sep 2 2020 High pressure aloft centered over Northern California this morning with a light to moderate northwest flow aloft over Colorado. Between some mixing out of what's left of the low level moisture and a few degrees C of warming aloft in the 500-700 mb layer, the atmosphere will be stable today and we will likely just have clear skies. A weak cold front will move across the plains after midnight with a puff of north to northwest winds. The upper ridge will be parked over the Great Basin through the weekend, resulting in a dry northwesterly flow aloft over the forecast area.
1026 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2020 Currently - A surface through lower level ridge straddles Florida resulting in gentle to moderate easterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. A TUTT cell is rolling westward through the northern Caribbean Sea but does not appear to have much of a reach into the lower levels as what reflection there may be would be well south of our area. Satellite imagery and this mornings sounding are in agreement with considerable warm and dry air through the lower levels. Short Term Update - Surface ridging will remain in charge today, maintaining gentle to moderate easterly breezes. A ridge across Florida will maintain gentle to moderate easterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters.
/issued 323 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2020/ (Today and Tonight) Current water vapor imagery shows an upper level low digging into eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle.
429 AM MDT Wed Sep 2 2020 Between some mixing out of what's left of the low level moisture and a few degrees C of warming aloft in the 500-700 mb layer, the atmosphere will be stable today and we will likely just have clear skies. A weak cold front will move across the plains after midnight with a puff of north to northwest winds. The upper ridge will be parked over the Great Basin through the weekend, resulting in a dry northwesterly flow aloft over the forecast area.
647 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2020 Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will become limited by mid to late week as an upper ridge builds over the area and slightly drier air moves into the area. A weak cold front will move into the area from the north over the weekend, and this may lead an increase in showers and thunderstorms with temperatures closer to normal. Mid and upper level ridge extending across FL into the Gulf of Mexico will expand northward into the area today. Upper level ridge remains over the area. Upper level low in the southern Plains/Texas with broad trough from the northern Plains to the northeast CONUS. Moisture appears focused offshore around subtropical ridge and in the Carolina Mountains ahead of a cold front in warm advection. Low temps in the low to mid 70s.
DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 73 91 73 90 / 20 10 30 20 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 72 89 72 88 / 20 20 40 30 30 Oak Ridge, TN 88 72 89 71 88 / 20 20 50 30 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 69 88 69 84 / 40 30 50 50 30.
A warmer than average day on tap for the region thanks to predominately southwesterly flow and WAA across the region, with highs in the 80s to near 90. Breezy conditions expected today as the pressure gradient ahead of the cold frontal passage tonight increases. Fire weather concerns for today and Thursday are slightly elevated thanks to the lower dew points and breezy to gusty winds.
/Today through Thursday/ Disturbances ahead of an upper trof over the TX Panhandle this morning continue to keep waves of convection ongoing across much of Central and East Texas. However, more waves of convection will be possible as the trof continues to drift ewd today through Thursday. Trof to weaken as ewd progress stalls during the day Thursday, making convection less organized and likely less widespread.
536 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2020 Clouds have cleared most of the area early this morning as an upper level trough swings across the northern Great Lakes. Expect mostly sunny skies today with comfortable humidity levels and warm highs in the 70s to mid 80s as weak ridging builds over the area. Attention then focuses on a potent upper level trough that will approach Lake Superior by early Thursday dragging a cold front south and east. Main forecast concerns are on periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms later this weekend into the start of the new week when much cooler temperatures are expected. Low pressure will track across southern Ontario/northern Lake Superior on Thursday continuing to drag the cold front across the region.
514 AM MDT Wed Sep 2 2020 Critical fire weather conditions expected today as downslope mixing will push temperatures into the low 80s to mid 90s ahead of an approaching cold front. The downslope flow will also bring drier air aloft down to the surface, causing minimum relative humidity values to drop into the lower to mid teens. A cold front will push through northwestern South Dakota after 21Z, and exiting the forecast area by 10Z Thursday.
SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): The drumbeat of hot and dry weather will continue for this period of the forecast with the mid-level high pressure system continuing its dominance over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.
Deep layer ridging will provide subsidence across ECFL today. Afternoon temperatures reach the low 90s along the coast and mid 90s inland. Deep layer ridging across the area providing additional subsidence. Low-level ridge axis across the central FL peninsula today.
733 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2020 Warm and humid weather with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are expected through Thursday with the approach and passage of a cold front. Additional development is then progged for the afternoon with the advancement of the cold front.
Increasing moisture convergence ahead of the approaching cold front will allow isolated to scattered storms to develop on Thursday.
In contrast, areas of extreme southeastern Kansas and west-central Missouri may warm into the middle 80s where there may be at least a few breaks in the high clouds. A cold front will drop south into southeastern Kansas and central Missouri Thursday afternoon and then move south across the remainder of the Ozarks Thursday night. Meanwhile, a 500 mb trough axis will slowly track east across the Arklatex. We may see scattered showers and storms develop over portions of southern Missouri ahead of the front in closer proximity to that trough axis. Highs on Thursday should be warmer over most areas with a bit less in the way of cloud cover.
422 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2020 Upper low continues to rotate around the Texas panhandle as northwesterly flow in the region is dictated by a expansive ridge over the western CONUS. The afternoon is characterized as being warmer with partly cloudy skies as the upper low meanders into western Oklahoma. Aforementioned upper trough finally slides southeast tonight as an incoming wave crosses into the far northern plains. The northern stream wave exits towards the Great Lakes region as a progressive cold front ahead of the vort max enters north central Kansas by Thursday morning. The boundary passes through dry as highs are slightly cooler in the lower to middle 80s. Prepare for a wild swing in temps for the extended as southerly flow returns as the upper ridge flattens towards central KS.
High pressure will strengthen over California for the upcoming holiday weekend.
431 AM MDT Wed Sep 2 2020 A weak trough of low pressure moving out over the Canada plains will graze the Continental Divide in northwest Montana today. In addition to increased cloudiness over the Glacier Park Region, the nearby trough will create gusty winds across much of the Northern Rockies.
157 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2020 Weak ridging has brought a quiet day to the region early this afternoon, other than some occasional gusty winds. This system will track eastward along the Canadian border tonight, with an associated cold front extending southward and sliding through the forecast area sometime Thursday morning. closer to the low where stronger forcing will be present. However, model soundings suggest anything that does develop will have to overcome quite a bit of dry air in the low levels, so keeping the forecast dry in areas south of I-94 for now. The gradient should relax a bit by late afternoon, but the persistent northwesterly flow should still keep temperatures about 10 degrees cooler than today, with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s.
Winds are widespread 30-40 mph sustained winds and gusts are 50-60 mph with the cold front passage. Cliff PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Warm and dry conditions are expected today ahead of an approaching cold front. Cooler conditions and improved fire weather conditions are expected on Thursday as winds decrease over the area. That said, upper ridging is expected to build back across the western U. Expected Flight Category: VFR Synopsis: A cold front draping over the region will bring slight chances for showers and maybe a few thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening. Localized winds up to 55 kts will be possible with the cold front passage, along with underneath any showers/storms that form this afternoon and evening.
Current analysis shows an upper-level trough over the area and an upper-level ridge over southwestern CONUS with an upper low centered over the NUNAVUT and the western Hudson Bay. The trough will begin to move out of the southern Plains by late Thursday. This will allow the ridge over the southwestern CONUS to build/expand to the east. As the ridge begins to build, it will bring northeasterly winds aloft to the area drying the mid-levels and limiting storm chances through the weekend. Late this weekend, the aforementioned upper low over northern Canada will begin to dive south, bringing a cold front with it.
Radar trends over the last hour show increasing reflectivity across far western Arkansas, likely in response to an approaching mid-level disturbance emanating from the large West Texas upper trough, increased moisture advection in the lower troposphere, and MUCAPE values on the order of 1000 to 1500 J/kg. The highest concern remains across western into central and northeastern portions of the state where heavy rain has already occurred or residual flooding continues.
But local water concerns cannot be ruled out given the high PW's across the area along with an increasing likelihood of deeper convective elements.
Dry conditions in the lower troposphere effectively squash any precipitation chances with the frontal passage.
Recent CAMs output suggests that activity across northeast OK will likely wane early this evening, with the better chances remaining farther south closer to the mid-level trof/upper jet streak entrance region.
1015 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2020 Upper level zonal flow will keep systems quickly crossing the forecast area, but there will be a brief ripple of high pressure today before the next system takes aim at the Northland tonight into Thursday.
I Increasing mid/low level moisture on Thursday will bring back POPs into the high-end scattered category, with best chances in the afternoon hours. Deep convection should remain minimal as other thermodynamic parameters remain rather unfavorable for it (lack of dynamic lift aloft/warmer 500 mb temps). Afternoon temperatures will remain above normal through the end of the work week as high pressure continues to build over the region. Highs will be in the low 90s along the east coast and mid-upper 90s elsewhere.
This coupled with ample PWATs of 2 plus inches, which are in the 2 standard deviations above normal range for the Lower Ohio Valley, will lead to periods of heavy rainfall tonight. After this we will still see the potential for showers and storms through the day Thursday, as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
This is where the highest rain chances will be for much of today and where we will be watching for a few strong storms.
302 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2020 West TX and SE New Mexico are finally enjoying a reprieve from the heat thanks to a cold front which has worked its way through the region this morning. The upper low will depart to the E of our region and ridging aloft will expand over the forecast area by tomorrow afternoon.
More showers are possible tomorrow evening as a cold front moves through the region. Dry and cooler conditions are expected this weekend. A cold front will move through late Thursday into the overnight hours.
104 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2020 Upper level zonal flow will keep systems quickly crossing the forecast area, but there will be a brief ripple of high pressure today before the next system takes aim at the Northland tonight into Thursday.
a mid/upper level trof axis was just west of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. the trof axis is expected to remain over the region with the northern surface boundary sagging southward some into Northeast Oklahoma.
337 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2020 Winds the primary concern this evening into the overnight as low pressure traverses the CWA. Mixing does increase in the wake of the cold front within the CAA regime and the potential to mix down 850mb winds overnight for the Devils Lake basin down into the Wahpeton area with gusts to 50mph. At the start on Fri, we would look for temps to trend upward into the 70s after a cooler Thu and the trend should continue into a seasonable Sat. Winds the primary concern with the TAF period as low pressure moves through and SW winds become westerly and then NW overnight.
The remainder of the week will see the upper ridge over the western states building back eastward over the central High Plains. This will result in continued dry and warmer weather with highs climbing back into the upper 80s and 90s. The GFS and GEM models keep this pattern as an open wave transitioning east across the central and eastern CONUS while the ECMWF model closes the wave into a deep upper low somewhere over the Rockies or Great Basin. A cold front will push through the terminals around 14-15z on Thursday.
This northern wave will shear apart the southern upper low, pulling it across the Mid-South tonight and tomorrow.
Expect a cold front across North Dakota and Montana this afternoon to rapidly push southward overnight. expect high pressure across the intermountain west to nudge eastward.
A weak cold front will move through western Nebraska tonight turning winds to the north and northwest with gusts to around 20 mph during passage. Somewhat cooler temperatures aloft with highs from the upper 70s northeast to low 80s eastern panhandle and southwest.
Temperatures are warm, with mid to upper 80s across the lower elevations, and 70s over the San Luis Valley. high pressure will continue to spin over the Great Basin, while upper trough moves across the Northern Plains. A cold front will drop south across the Plains late tonight into Thursday morning. Afternoon highs will be slightly cooler with mid 80s across the lower elevations.
1227 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2020 Clouds have cleared most of the area early this morning as an upper level trough swings across the northern Great Lakes. Expect mostly sunny skies today with comfortable humidity levels and warm highs in the 70s to mid 80s as weak ridging builds over the area. Attention then focuses on a potent upper level trough that will approach Lake Superior by early Thursday dragging a cold front south and east. Main forecast concerns are on periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms later this weekend into the start of the new week when much cooler temperatures are expected. Low pressure will track across southern Ontario/northern Lake Superior on Thursday continuing to drag the cold front across the region.
Clear skies over the region as a ridge of high pressure continues to build. Temperatures will reach the low 90's for lower valley locations today with a warming trend through the weekend where some locations could see triple digits again.
258 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2020 Beautiful day today with sunny skies, warmer temperatures and generally light westerly flow. A trough is descending southeast into the northern Plains this afternoon and a surface cold front has sagged south into northeastern MT and northwestern ND. Temperatures will be around 10 degrees cooler Thursday with lows Thursday night likely to fall into the 40s and low 50s.
Because of all the water we've seen and the chance of additional storms later today, and after coordinating with WPC, did maintain the high risk for excessive rain for now. Accordingly, the threat remains, albeit more conditional regarding coverage and exactly where the highest risk for flash flooding will be.
with main cold front along MT/Canadian border. Coupled with downsloping pushing temps into the low to mid 90s most places. Critical fire weather conditions expected today as downslope mixing will push temperatures into the low 80s to mid 90s ahead of an approaching cold front. The downslope flow will also bring drier air aloft down to the surface, causing minimum relative humidity values to drop into the lower to mid teens. A cold front will push through northwestern South Dakota after 21Z, and exiting the forecast area by 10Z Thursday.
Otherwise, expect lows in the lower 70s and light southerly winds.
A deep layer pressure ridge extends from the southwest Atlantic, westward across the Gulf through Thursday. Compressional sinking and warming from the ridge favors very little in the way of precipitation through Thursday. Overnight lows in the lower half of the 70s interior.