Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
ahead of an approaching cold front. This will warm temperatures considerably today with highs in the low to mid 90s Southwest and approaching 90 Northeast. A short wave will pivot around the low nudging the ridge over the Upper Midwest to the East. The cold front will stay to the West of Iowa through 00z so not expecting much in the way of widespread convection through the day today.
642 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 A weakening front and area of low pressure across the region will bring a good chance of showers and storms over the next couple of days. A building ridge of high pressure will bring above normal temperatures and less coverage of storms mid week. More typical summer time weather can be expected into the weekend with scattered showers and storms each day as the Bermuda High and Piedmont trough dominate the weather.
253 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 Upper trough axis this afternoon was centered over Wyoming into eastern Montana, while a weaker vorticity lobe was lifting northeast over western Nebraska. The cold front at 3 PM is centered from southwest KS through central NE with a warm and moist airmass in place over northeast KS. Dewpoints are generally in the lower 70s and temps in the lower 90s. Have adjusted pops accordingly to focus north of Interstate 70 through midnight where the better forcing from the passing upper trough resides.
Tonight THROUGH Tuesday A cold air mass over western Wyoming is expected to produce some freezing temperatures in Jackson Hole in Teton county and the upper Green River Basin in Sublette county where freeze warnings have been issued. /00Z ISSUANCE/ As a cold low pressure system moves eastward out of the northern Rockies this evening, VFR conditions expected generally except over and around higher terrain of north central WY with some rain and snow showers. The western valleys should see some freezing temperatures and areas of valley fog is expected.
117 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 High pressure will keep dry weather over the area today.
06Z surface data has a warm front running from the Tennessee Valley northwest through Iowa and into eastern South Dakota.
Temperatures range from the lower to mid 70s along Highway 14 to the upper 80s in the south, and dewpoints are in the upper 60s to upper 70s, with a few sites, including FSD, occasionally hitting the lower 80s. After things clear out this evening, cooler and less humid air will filter in behind the front for the overnight period with lows falling into the lower 60s. Tuesday looking warm, less humid and dry as westerly winds develop behind exiting low pressure.
Cooler air from last night's cold front made it up to the Cold Springs Fire which has helped to limit fire activity up to this point. This is in an area of convergence along where the morning cold front has stalled out. Temperatures will be warming back up into the lower and mid 90s on the plains as warm air builds over the desert southwest.
In general, deep layer ridging will prevail over the Tri-State region through today. South/southwesterly steering flow and near normal PWATs would favor the highest PoPs across north Florida today, beginning early this afternoon.
The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features general ridging across the eastern CONUS, with a very weak mid/upper low, perhaps associated with a remnant MCV, across portions of the TN Valley. These storms appear to be firing on an effective boundary to the northeast of the MCV/weak trough.
A high pressure over the central Atlantic today will shift westward tonight while its western ridge lifts north across the Florida Peninsula. By mid-week, the ridge will be extending westward towards southeast United States, keeping the local winds generally east with brief daily variations. As we continue under the effects of the high pressure to our northeast and ridging to our north, no relief to the temperatures is expected.
Upper ridge will edge a bit northward into mid-week.
South-Central Texas is on the drier, back side of the upper level trough to the east as evident on water vapor. The ridge axis to the west will expand east into the area today and Tuesday with further drying and lowering of precipitable water values.
249 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 Warmer and more humid weather returns as we head through the work week. Cold front crosses late in the week.
Increasing shear from the west and northwest as strong mid to upper level winds rotate into the region around the southern extent of the upper low. A secondary region of thunderstorm development would be in northeast Colorado by 00z associated with another pulse of mid level energy rotating around the southern extent of the upper low.
Shear axis continues to linger along the Texas coast with models showing it weakening further through Tuesday, with midlevel ridging strengthening and building east into Texas. Water vapor imagery shows the drier air moving into South Texas with the subsidence behind the midlevel trough. As a result, did continue with relatively cooler conditions tonight and again Tuesday night. With temperatures mainly along the coast remaining warm enough overnight, mixing with the low level jet may condition breezy conditions overnight.
This as ridge breaks down and we see passing upper level waves to our NW. Heavy rain will be possible with these storms, as aforementioned PWATS will eclipse 2 inches in spots (near 150 percent of normal), high freezing levels, and mean winds will be lucky to reach 15 knots. A warm and humid airmass will generally remain locked in place through the upcoming week between Ontario to Hudson Bay centered cyclonic flow and ridging spanning Bermuda to the Desert Southwest U.
Radar continues to show a few showers and thunderstorms across eastern parts of the Permian Basin into the low rolling plains this morning.
323 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 High pressure will keep the area warm and dry through Tuesday. Clsd upr low over south cntrl Canada slowly drifts south and east into Thu dvlpg a pos tilt trof over the cntrl Great Lakes. Xtndd pd begins with an upr trof slowly deepening over the cntrl lakes Fri. This trof begins to creep ewrd on Sat but really just lingers thru the pd. Really cannot rule out a shwr or storm anytime as the trof supplies the instability and daytime conv lingers well into the ovrngt.
Halleck Ridge. Dana Ridge WYDOT sites along I-80 have been reporting 52-53 MPH gusts. decided to keep the High Wind Warning going through 6PM. Warmer temperatures Tuesday as 700mb temperatures climb back to +14C during the afternoon.
316 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 An upper level low was located in northeast MT at 19Z. A warm front extended eastward from the low across southern MN. A ridge of high pressure was draped along the Canadian border at 19Z and has kept much of this area of the region rain free this afternoon.
High pressure will rebuild over the region this week bringing a warming trend with dry conditions and lighter winds.
The better moisture transport on the low level jet resides along/west of the Kansas turnpike through 15z before it begins to weaken. Otherwise, the main focus for stronger surface based convection will be with the approaching weak cold front that will move into north central Kansas by early this evening.
609 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 High pressure over the middle Atlantic states will slowly move offshore through Tuesday. A diffuse warm front will lift northeast across the area Tuesday.
With the region within the warm sector, sly winds thru the low levels will help warm temps across the region. This shud help mix out the warmer dewpoints and with the sly flow coming off of the Ozarks, believe dewpoints will struggle somewhat. An upper level low, albeit weak, remains over nern AR and TN region.
1155 AM MDT MON JUL 11 2016 Local observations at this hour put the cold front just to the west of Steamboat Springs, dropping down to the Book Cliffs, and then just to the west of Green River. The front will be through our CWA by mid-morning allowing high temperatures to be cooler than seen recently. For Tuesday, high pressure centered over southern New Mexico and eastern Texas will keep moisture trapped way down south as zonal flow sets up over our area.
Winds will be a little less strong overall on Tuesday as the low level pressure gradient relaxes just a tad. /issued 430 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Latest water-vapor imagery shows the upper-level trough/shear axis moving off the lower Texas coast with mid-level dry air over much of Texas this morning.
106 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 Mid clouds (5-10 kft) and scattered light vfr showers along/north of I-69 this afternoon will dissipate by this evening, as upper level ridge builds over lower Michigan tonight into tomorrow. With upper level ridge and hot airmass in place tomorrow, expecting to see little in the way of CU development. Otherwise, we will be seeing a marked increase in the dewpoints as the later in the day as the surface warm front finally washes into Southeast Michigan. Convectively enhanced disturbance embedded within the northern periphery of the building ridge will traverse the state today. Depending on extent of cloud debris, deeper mixing could yield a few warmer readings in the upper 80s. Southerly gradient will persist into midweek as the closed low over the Intermountain West this morning lifts north and east.
218 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 Warmer and more humid weather returns as we head through the work week. Cold front crosses late in the week.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): Strong high pressure centered aloft near southeast AZ/southwest NM will continue to exert a dry, subsident influence on deep south TX through the period.
This high will keep thunderstorm development tonight out of western Nebraska. High pressure shifts a little eastward Tuesday resulting in another dry day across central Nebraska. Tuesday night, a slight for showers and thunderstorms after midnight south and eat of North Platte, as a northern stream trough crosses the Northern Plains.
Winds this afternoon have been a little more southwesterly ahead of a cold front moving into northwest Cimarron county. /Issued 527 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016/ An upper level ridge of high pressure will be the dominant weather feature for this 7 day fcst period with above normal to well above normal temperatures expected.
700 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 High pressure over the middle Atlantic states will slowly move offshore through Tuesday. A diffuse warm front will lift northeast across the area Tuesday.
Models have trended drier over the southeast half of GRB CWA Tuesday evening, despite the presence of a sfc trof and the RRQ of an upper level jet.
145 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 Weak high pressure centered just north of the region this morning will slide off the coast Tuesday morning.
Aloft, a SW to NE oriented mid/upper level trof off the TX coast extending across E TX/W LA. Radar showing only ISO SHRA across the coastal waters/SW LA, with SCT SHRA/TSRA over Lower Acadiana and the lower Atchafalaya Basin where the best moisture/lift east of the trof has predominated this afternoon.
High pressure will gradually build over the region today and persist through the end of the week. Expecting a return of marine stratus/patchy fog to develop again overnight along the coast and in the Eel River Valley, with temperatures bottoming out in the lower 50s at most locations. It is a flat ridge and thus a westerly zonal flow will persist with 500mb heights building into the 582-588 dm range, which is about 60 dkm higher than current values.
Water vapor shows upper low over far nern MT with dry sw flow aloft extending into the nrn plains. Pcpn in our nwrn zones will end by early this evening with high pressure building in overnight with rather cool lows expected. High pressure on Tuesday will bring mostly sunny skies and dry conditions.
134 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 High pressure continues today. Warmer and more humid weather returns as we head through the work week. Cold front crosses late in the week.
147 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 A weak surface across the central Midlands will continue moving northward tonight and further northward into NC Tuesday, while an upper ridge of high pressure to our south builds north some into our region. The upper ridge will weaken some late this week into the weekend, as a weak upper trough and surface boundary or two move into the region, along with some increase in moisture. The upper ridge will continue to build slightly over our region, while the surface boundary continues to shift slightly farther to the N and NE and set up mainly just to the N/NE of our area Tuesday.
332 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 Another hot day across the forecast area today as the high pressure ridge centered over northern Mexico continues to build resulting in increasing heights across the region. West of the trough axis, temperatures range from 100 to 105 and deep mixing has allowed dewpoints to drop into the mid 30s and southwest to west wind is providing a bit of downslope compressional warming. East of the trough axis, temperatures are in the upper 90s to 101 with dewpoints remaining in the mid 60s. Will have to keep a close watch as the ridge will continue to build into tomorrow keeping temperatures in the 100-104 degree range across the entire forecast area. Jordan No end in sight to the upper level ridge dominating our pattern and steering jet stream well to our north.
Another area of convection over southeast Alabama was associated with an inverted upper trof over the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Deep layer southwest wind flow north of the trof axis has allowed the leading edge of the convection to accelerate northeast. A similar set-up the next few days with a moist southwest flow on the back side of an upper high off the Florida east coast.
Otherwise, surface pressures are rising and this trough is loosing strength. High temperatures will be about 6 to 10 degrees warmer Tuesday afternoon.
Low temperatures tonight ranging from the lower 70s over most of the interior to the upper 70s at the immediate coast.
A cold front is pushing into eastern Nebraska this afternoon, with high-resolution models indicating convective development late this afternoon along the boundary. Highs in the upper 80s to around 90F on Tue with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s giving afternoon heat index readings of 94-99F. Southeast IL could see some strong thunderstorms on Thu afternoon along with the highest pops.
Main concerns will be hot and dry weather continuing the high fire danger across the region. Cooler with Chances of Precipitation later this week.
As the low pressure system that brought widespread rains exits into far eastern Montana, precipitation has largely tapered off across the region.
631 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 High pressure will build east and crest over the area tonight. The high will slide offshore on Tuesday, setting up a warm southwesterly wind over New England.
237 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 An approaching cold front will provide a focus for deep moist convection this afternoon and evening across central KS. Convergence within the trough axis should be sufficient to overcome the convective inhibition during the afternoon/early evening hours across south central KS and pops were increased across portions of central/south central KS.
629 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 A weak surface across the central Midlands will continue moving northward tonight and further northward into NC Tuesday, while an upper ridge of high pressure to our south builds north some into our region. The upper ridge will weaken some late this week into the weekend, as a weak upper trough and surface boundary or two move into the region, along with some increase in moisture. The upper ridge will continue to build slightly over our region, while the surface boundary continues to shift slightly farther to the N and NE and set up mainly just to the N/NE of our area Tuesday.
238 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016 The cold front that slowly moved through most of the forecast area yesterday evening into this morning is currently positioned somewhere along the Colorado-New Mexico border, which will keep the threat of critical fire weather conditions over portions of southwest Colorado through this evening. Most of the area will see cooler temperatures for the remainder of the day and less breezy winds.
1036 AM MST Sat Nov 19 2016 Western conus troughing will support mean ridging over the region through most of the period. Weak lee side low will progress into the region Sunday, with renewed pressure falls expected as the western conus trough shifts east. This will support better mixing across ne WY and the Black Hills and parts of the SD plains, with slightly warmer temps expected.
24 hrs later, the ridge will be directly over our area. It will still be on the cold side on Sunday as heights and 850 mb temps still remain on the low side. By Mon morning, lows will range from 20 to 25 for most areas, although cannot rules out a few teens in some of the low and outlying areas.
Expect warmer weather this weekend, with increasing clouds on Sunday.
Upper short wave ridge moves over the High Plains this weekend with milder air returning in the short term. 850 mb temps today will reach about 5-6 C in the west and will rebound to the lower teens Sunday.
Subjective surface analysis at 07z shows a secondary trough/front edging southeast into northern Iowa. Ridge of high pressure settles into the region tonight with light winds and only a few clouds expected. The clouds will be in response to a warm front developing over the High Plains. in conjunction with a weak lee side trough translating into Iowa by Sunday morning.
Water vapor imagery this morning shows the departing upper trough making its way across the upper Great Lakes region. Further west, an upper ridge is building over the inter mountain west, transitioning mean flow to the northwest in the central plains. Skies are sunny today while the CWA remains cool as the ridge axis drifts overhead. Light winds veer to the south tonight as the high pressure shifts eastward. Wind chill readings are similar to this morning, if not a bit cooler in the upper teens.
1057 AM CST Sat Nov 19 2016 It's been a bit of a brisk morning across the region behind yesterday's cold front. Temperatures began in the lower 40s across most of the area, with some upper 30s in the Delta. The Pine Belt was a bit warmer with the lag of cold advection and morning lows were in the lower 50s. Perhaps some locations may reach the lower 60s but overall temperatures will be below normal today. Fire danger will be a concern today given the lower relative humidity values and gusty north winds.
Intense low pressure was located in the northern Great Lakes region and continued to produce howling winds up to 45 mph and cold temperatures. During the afternoon the winds will decrease as the gradient slackens, as the low pressure lifts farther to the northeast and high pressure ridge moves into Iowa from the Plains. Maximum temperatures will be in the mid 30s north to the lower 40s south. Tonight: Cold night ahead as high pressure ridge will be over the cwa with light winds and clear skies.
234 PM CST Sat Nov 19 2016 A cool continental polar air mass spread across MN/WI today in the wake of the low pressure system and heavy snow that fell across a large swath of MN yesterday. The low stratus has been tough to clear in eastern MN in part due to the cool temperatures aloft and solar heating, which has lead to additional strato-cu development this afternoon. We are forecasting low temperatures that are on the low end of the model guidance spectrum because of this.
201 PM MST Sat Nov 19 2016 Current surface map places high pressure across the eastern Dakotas with trof/warm front across Montana/eastern Wyoming. Warm front will continue to shift east tonight and Sunday as upper level ridge builds across the northern plains. Northeast Wyoming and Black Hills will be 5-10F warmer than today.
Today Through Sunday Night It should be a chilly couple of days, as high pressure settles into the region. Yes, I know most of our counties have seen freezing temperatures already. On Sunday and Sunday night, the high will move eastward, with winds coming back around to the south, and temperatures moderating.
High pressure will move east of the forecast area today.
Elsewhere, though it will be another clear night, a warmer airmass and southwesterly winds will make for a night at or above freezing. Tomorrow, upper ridging sets up southwesterly flow aloft and at the surface which will contribute to a quick warmup into the upper 60s and lower 70s.
While Houston and Trinity counties remain the most "at risk" at seeing freezing temps by sunrise Sunday, the rest of the northern counties should remain above freezing.
310 PM EST Sat Nov 19 2016 A strong, dry cold front will shift off the coast tonight.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a trough over the east and a ridge over the west with northwesterly flow over Texas. At the surface, high pressure was settling over the region with winds generally from the north. Cooler and drier air has moved into our CWA. The upper level ridge will push into the plains during this period. Much of our northern area will have temperatures drop to or below freezing. Within this area, only the northern parts of Medina, Uvalde, Kinney, and Val Verde Counties will experience freezing temperatures. No freezing temperatures are expected Sunday night.
Those winds should decouple quickly with sunset as high pressure at the surface begins to move ovhd.
Dry northwest flow aloft today will become southwest overnight as mid-level ridge moves across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.
1215 PM EST Sat Nov 19 2016 Occasional wind gusts and VFR conditions are expected behind a departing cold front at TYS and CHA for the rest of today, with some MVFR cigs haning in for the next few hours at TRI before lifting to VFR.
Will keep the mention out of the fcst for now, given the low confidence.
309 PM CST Sat Nov 19 2016 Cold front pushed offshore around sunrise and post frontal air mass is steadily moving in. Current temps are hovering in the lower 60s and expect highs Sunday to be the same. Thinking that this will limit cooling enough to keep lows from reaching freezing.
The trough that brought a few sprinkles and colder temperatures to the region is still shifting east through the Great Lakes, making room for an upper level ridge to expand east into the Plains States.
This high pressure center will move eastward tonight. Low temperatures will fall into the low to mid 20s areawide. Winds will continue to be brisk out of the south early next work week as low pressure develops across the central High Plains.
Highs today will only warm into the 40s and lows drop into the lower to middle 20s tonight. Upper level ridging will build over the Plains Sunday then east over the region early in the week.
With the higher moisture shifting toward Central California, confidence is high that the area could see significant amounts. Upper air analysis from Oakland and Vandenberg show the freezing level above 10,000 feet msl and progged to drop to near 7000 feet msl on Sunday. Models place the cold frontal passage through California on Sunday. In addition to the rain and snow, models show good instability moving into the region in association with the upper trof passage. Models then shift the instability over Southern California as the trof energy continues to split through the area.
Gusty southeast winds continue as northeast Montana remains in between high pressure to the east, and low pressure to the west. Otherwise dirty flattened ridging will make for seasonally warm temperatures with mid and high clouds pushing through tonight into Sunday.
Meanwhile, a Pacific low pressure system will continue to approach the coast this afternoon. Much of the area will see the potential for some activity through Sunday afternoon, with models in fair agreement regarding widespread moisture moving in ahead of the trough axis.