Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
347 PM CST Sat Jan 23 2021 Light snow and freezing rain will spread across central and southeast Illinois overnight, before diminishing and pushing east Sunday.
810 PM EST Sat Jan 23 2021 Northeast surge of winds and slightly drier/cooler airmass has shifted the frontal boundary just south of the region and across Central FL and basically all light rainfall has come to an end this evening, but zonal flow aloft and just enough lift is expected to bring light over-running rainfall back northward overnight across coastal NE FL as inverted low pressure trof develops over the nearshore coastal waters.
A weak cold front draped across the central peninsula this evening will sink further south overnight and eventually stall out across the southern peninsula on Sunday as high pressure builds in from the north. The low clouds and fog should slowly burn off during mid to late morning on Sunday with pleasant warm dry weather expected during the afternoon with temperatures climbing into the mid 70s north, and upper 70s to around 80 south.
710 PM CST Sat Jan 23 2021 Several social media reports and calls to emergency managers reveals northern extent of freezing drizzle sits just north of the Missouri River Valley along the NE/SD border. Slick and icy roads have been reported from this freezing drizzle and thus have expanded the Winter Weather Advisory into this region. Forecast soundings would suggest the highest threat of this activity is prior to midnight before lower level forcing begins to wane. This brings cool air into Siouxland, with highs just below seasonal normals, in the lower to mid 20s.
At the same time, the NAM12 shows a warm front coming up from the south during the evening and eventually interacting with a stalled west-to-east oriented front over the Big Country. So, although instability is modest, shear will be plentiful, moisture will be sufficient, and the surface fronts and nearby upper trough will provide more than enough lift for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Sunday evening through late Sunday night, some of which could be strong to marginally severe.
439 PM MST Sat Jan 23 2021 Water vapor shows upper trof over the Northern Plains with cut-off low along the CA coast. At the surface, inverted trof extends northeast from southwest through north central SD.
Surface dewpoint values in the lower 50s are moving into dry-bulb readings of mid 40s on moderate south winds.
Added some fog to the lower valleys and also to the southern Laramie Range as winds shift into the south/southeast by sunrise.
529 PM EST Sat Jan 23 2021 Light snow showers north of Pittsburgh will dissolve as a high pressure builds in western PA. Ridging will keep conditions dry through Sunday afternoon. Cold sfc temps and warm advection may create a wintry mix situation, specifically freezing rain. Hi-Res models keep a this swath of precip near I-70 and in the WV ridges due to orographic lift.
523 PM CST Sat Jan 23 2021 An upper level trough will continue to dig into the southeast across the western U. Amounts will not be overly high but generally a trace to near two tenths of an inch with the highest amounts expected across the eastern Ozarks. Warm air advection will occur with temperatures aloft and at the surface expected to remain above freezing. Temperatures will lower into the middle 30s to the lower 40s tonight with highs warming into the middle 40s to lower 50s on Sunday.
319 PM CST Sat Jan 23 2021 An upper level trough will continue to dig into the southeast across the western U. Amounts will not be overly high but generally a trace to near two tenths of an inch with the highest amounts expected across the eastern Ozarks. Warm air advection will occur with temperatures aloft and at the surface expected to remain above freezing. Temperatures will lower into the middle 30s to the lower 40s tonight with highs warming into the middle 40s to lower 50s on Sunday.
The snow will be operating on weak upper level dynamics and an arctic cold front dropping south through MT. NDOR cams are picking up on freezing drizzle east of highway 83 this afternoon. Until the better lift moves in tonight, areas of light freezing drizzle are in the forecast across parts of ncntl Nebraska. Cloudy skies continue Sunday and arctic high pressure will back into wrn and ncntl Nebraska.
Reports of freezing drizzle making it farther north despite forecasts showing mainly ice being present. In coordination with DVN did include some patchy freezing drizzle in our southern forecast counties. Trends in the high res guidance are perhaps an hour or two slower, with snow arriving in western areas by mid afternoon and towards the MS River by around 6 pm.
Temperatures were fairly steady or slowly rising and were above freezing in the mid to upper 30s. Broad southwesterly flow was occurring out ahead of a deep trough and closed low over southern California and a developing surface frontal system over the central and southern plains. An inverted trough of low pressure extended northeast of the low into south central KS into northwest MO. With the cloud cover expected today, the only source of warming will be with low level warm advection and we could still see temperatures reach the low to mid 50s over southern MO with mid 40s in central MO.
The current corridor from east central OK through far NW AR will have the higher chances of measurable rainfall through the overnight hours. Updated forecast will trend overnight lows slightly warmer and make hourly temp adjustments to hold much of E OK near steady through the overnight hours.
The lows for this period will likely occur at midnight with temperatures remaining nearly steady or slightly warming after midnight. This flow will begin pushing the old frontal boundary back north over LA during the evening as a warm front with sufficient lift for showers to break out after midnight. Showers will continue mainly along and north of the northward moving warm front Sunday and mainly over northwestern sections in the best ascent.
345 AM EST Sun Jan 24 2021 High pressure remains in control across the eastern seaboard with ridging through the Carolinas and into Georgia. This continues to promote very dry air at the low levels with mid 20s dewpoints still commonplace across the northern tier. By Sunday night, we will see a warm front lift north and take up a position across far North GA.
1011 PM EST Sat Jan 23 2021 High pressure will build across Pennsylvania during the second half of the weekend.
A low pressure system will continue to slowly weaken over northern Utah tonight, while a secondary brushes by southern Utah overnight into Sunday. Ample boundary layer moisture will support patchy fog, particularly areas where skies are able to clear such as the western Uinta Basin, and have added patchy freezing fog to outlying areas of northern Utah overnight. Meanwhile the next upper low is currently moving into the Desert Southwest, and will brush by southern Utah as it progresses eastward overnight into the day Sunday.
1122 PM CST Sat Jan 23 2021 Warm front situated just off the coast will be moving inland overnight.
1031 PM EST Sat Jan 23 2021 Currently - A narrow ridge across the Bahamas and extreme South Florida is being bridged into by a larger high over the eastern United States. Temperatures are broadly in the upper 60s with dew points in the lower 60s. Short Term Update - The eastern United States high will absorb the narrow ridge near South Florida and winds are expected to increase a notch out of the northeast through the overnight period. High pressure over the eastern United States will bridge into a narrow ridge near Keys waters.
Otherwise, a cold front will enter northwest later this morning and will push southeast through the northwest half of the state by afternoon. As colder air filters south tonight, temps may fall to near freezing across far northwest Oklahoma resulting in the potential for some freezing rain. Some light accumulations may occur on elevated surfaces if temps do fall to freezing or slightly below.
1252 AM EST Sun Jan 24 2021 Weakening high pressure will drift eastward and offshore late tonight.
VFR will continue through mid afternoon Sunday, but periods of MVFR cigs and vis in scattered showers will start during the late afternoon and evening as a warm front and associated moisture approaches the region. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 44 65 53 65 / 40 90 70 80 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 42 61 53 62 / 40 90 90 80 10 Oak Ridge, TN 50 42 61 51 62 / 40 90 90 80 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 39 56 49 60 / 20 70 100 80 10.
1038 PM MST Sat Jan 23 2021 Water vapor shows upper trof over the Northern Plains with cut-off low along the CA coast. At the surface, inverted trof extends northeast from southwest through north central SD.
948 PM MST Sat Jan 23 2021 The first piece of the southern trough is getting sheared apart this afternoon by the passing trough to the north. Sunday will be a clearer day, especially to the north, and any areas with new snowfall will be very bright! Higher elevations to the west will be slightly cooler Sunday, with temperatures in the teens and 20s.
1132 PM CST Sat Jan 23 2021 An upper level trough will continue to dig into the southeast across the western U. Amounts will not be overly high but generally a trace to near two tenths of an inch with the highest amounts expected across the eastern Ozarks. Warm air advection will occur with temperatures aloft and at the surface expected to remain above freezing. Temperatures will lower into the middle 30s to the lower 40s tonight with highs warming into the middle 40s to lower 50s on Sunday.
1028 PM CST Sat Jan 23 2021 Several social media reports and calls to emergency managers reveals northern extent of freezing drizzle sits just north of the Missouri River Valley along the NE/SD border. Slick and icy roads have been reported from this freezing drizzle and thus have expanded the Winter Weather Advisory into this region. Forecast soundings would suggest the highest threat of this activity is prior to midnight before lower level forcing begins to wane. This brings cool air into Siouxland, with highs just below seasonal normals, in the lower to mid 20s.
340 AM EST Sun Jan 24 2021 Zonal flow aloft in place across the state this morning with a weak frontal boundary stalled over the southern half of the peninsula south of high pressure over the eastern CONUS, resulting in east/northeast surface flow over the area. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy skies with highs in the low 70s to around 80 degrees.
358 AM CST Sun Jan 24 2021 Canadian high pressure builds in at the sfc today.
420 AM EST Sun Jan 24 2021 The current upper level pattern features a closed low across central Canada, with associated short wave energy swinging through the Upper Midwest. Broad ridging is seen from the Upper Great Lakes down through the Mississippi Valley. Further west, another closed low is churning across Southern California. At the surface, high pressure is centered across the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, with broad low pressure stretched from the Desert Southwest through the Southern Plains, and an inverted trough nosed to the northeast into the Middle Mississippi Valley.
A weak inverted trough over the Atlc waters east of the area has helped to force isolated showers, mainly along the coast and marine areas since the overnight period. The trough should become less defined during the day as fuller mixing, assisted by partial sfc heating of the FL peninsula will lead to deeper onshore flow over the Atlc as well as the land areas by midday. Any PoP numbers will remain 20pct or less, in general, as we continue to keep values below guidance for this low QPF event. Expansive mid-level ridging across the Caribbean will keep the Gulf Coast Region with zonal flow aloft. Expect lows in the 60s areawide, though some normally cooler areas, especially over the interior, may realize U50s.
A warm front lifting north through the area will bring a more predominant southerly flow to the area this afternoon, and also some opportunity for improvement to MVFR, especially KAEX and the Acadiana terminals. As has been the case the past couple of days, the low level stratus will hinder fog dissipation which is expected to linger until mid morning. An upper level low will swing east across the desert southwest today before ejecting northeast across the plains pushing a better defined, although weak, frontal boundary through the area as it does so.
Still could have some light freezing rain and snow mixed in with the rain, especially over portions of southwestern Illinois, which will transition to all rain as temperatures rise before tapering off by midday today. The highest snowfall amounts will be between 2 and 4 inches over northeast Missouri.
/Issued 643 AM EST Sun Jan 24 2021/ High pressure remains in control across the eastern seaboard with ridging through the Carolinas and into Georgia. This continues to promote very dry air at the low levels with mid 20s dewpoints still commonplace across the northern tier. By Sunday night, we will see a warm front lift north and take up a position across far North GA. Deese At the start of the forecast period, showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase from northwest to southeast along and ahead of an incoming cold front.
Otherwise, rainfall totals are expected to remain on the low side at up to a quarter of an inch across the Big Country.
Upper trough expected to move into the plains tonight but weakens into the early part of the week.
A weak frontal boundary south of the area will return northward as a warm front over the next 24 hours as the flow starts to turn more southerly. However, the increase in dewpoints moving over the cooler shelf waters may allow for areas of fog to spread northward late tonight.
534 AM EST Sun Jan 24 2021 Temperatures across the island chain are currently in the lower to mid 60s, with radiational cooling not being quite as prevalent tonight as it has been in the past few nights. An increase in winds is expected tonight into Monday night due to the tightening of the gradient caused by the strengthening of an anticyclone moving off the coast of the Carolinas today.
Currently, deep upper level low remains over central Canada, with west-northwest flow over the Northern Plains.
320 AM CST Sun Jan 24 2021 The snow will come to an end across Minnesota and western Wisconsin this morning as the cold front moves across the Upper Midwest. Cooler air will move in behind the cold front, but with clearing skies the sun will help moderate temperatures.
A warm front extending east from the low is expected to lift north to near I-40. A Pacific cold front will sweep east south of the low across southeast OK and west central AR late tonight into early Monday. Farther to the south, a broken line of storms are expected to form along the cold front and sweep east across southeast OK and west central AR between 09Z and 13Z.
/issued 527 AM CST Sun Jan 24 2021/ An active split-flow upper pattern will prevail over the lower 48 states this week. Early morning upper air analysis showed and upper low over southern CA, this feature will drive the unsettled weather over the Midsouth trough late Monday. In the short term, a weak wave in the zonal flow will phase with northern branch trof over the upper MS River valley, bringing scattered showers to the Midsouth this morning. The upper low will remain well-removed from the Midsouth, tracking to extreme southwest KS by daybreak Monday. By midday Monday, the aforementioned upper low will lift into southwest KS.
Continued daytime heating and increasing wind speeds should erode the low clouds, leading to a warm and mostly sunny afternoon. The forecast has been adjusted slightly to better capture where fog has been occurring and where the low clouds are developing, but otherwise remains on track for the rest of the day.
612 AM EST Sun Jan 24 2021 Low pressure will remain over the Maritimes into Monday.
328 AM MST Sun Jan 24 2021 Cooler than average temperatures persist through mid-week for most areas.
Cooler than average temperatures persist through mid-week for most areas.
527 AM CST Sun Jan 24 2021 An active split-flow upper pattern will prevail over the lower 48 states this week. Early morning upper air analysis showed and upper low over southern CA, this feature will drive the unsettled weather over the Midsouth trough late Monday. In the short term, a weak wave in the zonal flow will phase with northern branch trof over the upper MS River valley, bringing scattered showers to the Midsouth this morning. The upper low will remain well-removed from the Midsouth, tracking to extreme southwest KS by daybreak Monday. By midday Monday, the aforementioned upper low will lift into southwest KS.
Water vapour had upper trough over the southwest CONUS and west/northwest flow aloft over the northern tier states.
This afternoon a trough will develop along the Pacific coast.
Models show decreasing southwesterly flow aloft for our CWA today through tonight with a mean upper trough covering the western 2/5ths of the U. The low level winds look to be south and southeasterly east of the divide today through midnight tonight. For the plains, will go with 10-30%s late this afternoon and tonight, with the highest pops over the eastern border area.
643 AM CST Sun Jan 24 2021 The snow will come to an end across Minnesota and western Wisconsin this morning as the cold front moves across the Upper Midwest. Cooler air will move in behind the cold front, but with clearing skies the sun will help moderate temperatures.
229 AM MST Sun Jan 24 2021 In the near term, the low pressure system continuing to spin in northern SK/MB will continue to force a northwest flow pattern over northeast Montana, which will mean continued cloudiness and cooler air.
704 AM EST Sun Jan 24 2021 Low pressure will remain over the Maritimes into Monday.
Highs will remain on the cold side for much of the area through the rest of the afternoon with highs ranging from the low 30s in Kansas and Nebraska to the low 50s in eastern Colorado. Southwest flow aloft remains over the Tri-State area with a trough located over central California. Sunday night, the trough will continue to lift to the northeast, into the Tri-State area. The trough is expected to be a little further north and west than models were indicating yesterday. Snow chances will continue through Monday and into Monday night with the trough continuing to move through the region.
and this will need to be monitored as deep enough boundary layer moisture could produce flurries or freezing drizzle, in addition to fog.
Have updated the cloud forecast to go a little cloudier today along the highway 2 corridor. Starting off, a cold front has now pushed through the entire FA, with winds at Wadena now turning to the west-northwest. The northern Plains will be stuck in NW flow aloft between an upper level low over Manitoba/Ontario and a trough over the western CONUS through the midweek period.
The evening areas will be quiet and dry across the area as high pressure moves through the upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes. With warmer air aloft over the cold ground, precipitation will be in the form of freezing rain possibly mixed with some light snow.
High temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 30s.
522 AM CST Sun Jan 24 2021 Canadian high pressure builds in at the sfc today.
A relatively quiet day is expected as the low positioned well to our south transitions east.
423 AM MST Sun Jan 24 2021 A few stray snow showers remain, mainly across the High Terrain in Carbon and Albany Counties. Pressure gradients continue to tighten across the Northeastern CONUS with high pressure south of the Great Lakes slowly pushing to the east, and a deepening low pressure cell over New England dropping south. To the west, the low pressure system continues to dig south from the Four Corners towards the Desert Southwest.
/issued 345 AM EST Sun Jan 24 2021/ High pressure remains in control across the eastern seaboard with ridging through the Carolinas and into Georgia. This continues to promote very dry air at the low levels with mid 20s dewpoints still commonplace across the northern tier. By Sunday night, we will see a warm front lift north and take up a position across far North GA. Deese At the start of the forecast period, showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase from northwest to southeast along and ahead of an incoming cold front.
Starting off, a cold front has now pushed through the entire FA, with winds at Wadena now turning to the west-northwest. The northern Plains will be stuck in NW flow aloft between an upper level low over Manitoba/Ontario and a trough over the western CONUS through the midweek period.
259 AM MST Sun Jan 24 2021 A few stray snow showers remain, mainly across the High Terrain in Carbon and Albany Counties. Pressure gradients continue to tighten across the Northeastern CONUS with high pressure south of the Great Lakes slowly pushing to the east, and a deepening low pressure cell over New England dropping south. To the west, the low pressure system continues to dig south from the Four Corners towards the Desert Southwest.
we may see some warmer air push into the Raton Mesa area per HRRR guidance, and some 40s will be possible down near the KTAD area. N of US50, expect mainly 30s with temps not getting above freezing in the greater COS area. For the plains this evening, we may see a mixed bag of winter precip as we may see some freezing drizzle at times along with the snow showers. Although I do not expect much in the way of accumulation of winter precip along the I-25 corridor, any freezing precip could cause issues.
As has been the case the past couple of days, the low level stratus will hinder fog dissipation which is expected to linger until mid morning. An upper level low will swing east across the desert southwest today before ejecting northeast across the plains pushing a better defined, although weak, frontal boundary through the area as it does so.
900 AM MST Sun Jan 24 2021 Cooler than average temperatures persist through mid-week for most areas.
The boundary over the Gulf will gradually lift northward as a warm front across our forecast area this afternoon, with low level moisture gradually increases within the southerly low level flow. Surface dewpoints will rise into the upper 50s over south central Alabama and in the lower 60s over the remainder of the region by late tonight, with deep layer moisture increase somewhat with precipitable water values improving to 1. Slightly warmer highs in the lower to mid 70s are expected on Monday.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 46 65 56 69 46 / 80 60 80 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 42 63 55 66 42 / 80 90 80 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 42 61 53 66 40 / 90 90 80 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 39 57 50 65 38 / 70 90 70 10 0.
Isentropic lift over a warm front will spread moderate to occasionally heavy rain northward into south-central Kentucky late tonight, and the rest of the Ohio Valley Monday morning. After nearly steady temps tonight, Monday highs will hinge on the northward progress of the warm front, with 60s in the warm sector and 40s just to the north of the front.
1225 PM EST Sun Jan 24 2021 High pressure will shift offshore by tonight as a warm front develops to our southwest and lifts north through the area on Monday bringing warmer temperatures. Ridging aloft will also favor above normal temperatures during this time.
1042 AM MST Sun Jan 24 2021 A few stray snow showers remain, mainly across the High Terrain in Carbon and Albany Counties. Pressure gradients continue to tighten across the Northeastern CONUS with high pressure south of the Great Lakes slowly pushing to the east, and a deepening low pressure cell over New England dropping south. To the west, the low pressure system continues to dig south from the Four Corners towards the Desert Southwest.
1111 AM CST Sun Jan 24 2021 Low clouds across central and north central sd lifting north this morning on the backside of the high pressure area to the east. Canadian high pressure builds in at the sfc today.
By 00Z a dryline will extend from the TX/NM state line swd into the W Permian Basin and through the Lower Trans Pecos. Meanwhile, a 500 hpa shrtwv trof will swing across AZ/NM along with an assocd speed max approaching 80+ kts.