Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Winds shift northwest at KABI mid morning as a weak cold front moves in. A weak cold front otherwise will likely bring west to northwest winds 10 KTS or less to KABI Tuesday. An upper level ridge will continue to dominate the weather across much of Texas on Tuesday. Only slightly cooler temperatures are expected behind the front along with a with north winds of 5 to 10 mph. Highs will range from the mid to upper 80s behind the front, to the low to mid 90s elsewhere.
Increased cloud cover may keep overnight lows a degree or two warmer than this morning, especially north and northwest of the Houston metro with lows in the upper 60s to 70s.
639 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016 An upper level disturbance responsible for the convection in the Upper Midwest will nudge a cold front southward through the Plains into OK and NW TX.
Cold front will approach from the NW and move through these NW terminals overnight. the cold front is forecast move into far Northeast Oklahoma. the cold front is progged to sag southeast between Interstate 44 and Interstate 40 and stall over the region.
/issued 438 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016/ High pressure dominates across southeastern states into the mid- Atlantic, and extends into central Florida. While persistent northeasterly regional flow continues to bring patches of moisture and cloudiness into the region, Florida is on the subsident side of an upper level trough and subsidence continues to stifle regional shower activity. The axis of the upper trough is across the northwest Bahamas.
Showery weather will continue through Tuesday morning before high pressure moves over the west coast by mid-week. As high pressure builds over the area, drier weather will return from mid to late week with temperatures warming to about 10 degrees above normal over the interior.
A cold front will move south into the region late tonight, but will stall over the area.
A robust warming and drying trend is forecast for the second half of the week as high pressure builds over the region. Temperatures were 3 to 5 degrees warmer than yesterday. Zonal flow will continue through Tuesday before an upper level high will build over southern California the middle of the week.
1226 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016 High pressure will maintain warm weather until passage of a mid week cold front. By late day, an approaching cold front will bring showers chances for Northwest PA.
Latest trends support a slightly earlier cold front passage, and we have adjusted to faster passage by a couple hours. Also at 2 pm, shallow moisture was hanging on across the southeast Rolling Plains - however the atmosphere will remain firmly capped in the subsident regime to the south of a strong upper-level jet moving across the southern Rockies and out into the high plains.
948 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 High pressure will maintain warm weather until passage of a mid week cold front. By late day, an approaching cold front will bring showers chances for Northwest PA.
SBCAPE values currently range from 1000-2000 J/Kg with the highest values along the Plateau.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night): A fairly stagnant weather pattern continues as an elongated 500 mb ridge remains parked across Texas, maintaining the continued hot, humid, and rain free conditions across the Rio Grande Valley and Deep South Texas.
Additionally, a Theta E ridge axis is progged to push into southeastern zones this afternoon and PWATs are on the rise as far west as Billings. as high pressure ridging begins to build across the area.
Highs will be cooler than normal with even our usual hot spots just getting into the lower 80s. The long wave upper level trough axis will remain in the vicinity of the west coast through the rest of the week. That said, the tail end of a weak short wave upper level ridge temporarily building into the Pacific NW is expected to bring just a bit of warming to the North Bay today, though with not much change farther to the south and even some cooling in the southern interior. As the week progresses, models remain in excellent agreement that an unseasonably cool and deep upper level low will track southeastward from southern Alaska towards the Oregon coast. This will enhance troughing along the California along with a significantly cooler air mass moving in aloft.
Showers will begin to dissipate around sunset time as a brief ridge of high pressure begins to build over the region. As the ridge of high pressure builds tonight, clearing skies will lead to a cold morning for Thursday with temperatures in the low 40s and even in the 30s for some higher elevation valleys.
Clear skies persist across interior northern California today under a dry trough situated across the Western US. Cooler than normal temperatures will continue through the short term.
Have delayed onset of gusty winds or removed them outright as the trough is expected to remain in place long enough for decoupling to occur. High temperatures will once again near the 105 degree mark across generally the southwestern and central portions of the TX Panhandle today and tomorrow, especially in the lower terrain areas including Palo Duro Canyon and the Canadian River Valley. Beyond today, the synoptic weather pattern continues to feature a ridge of high pressure along the southern U. In the lower to mid-levels, models suggest the ridge will stay far enough south and east to allow some mid-level moisture to move over the Panhandles.
Unseasonably quiet weather will continue through the period as our area lies in dry west to southwest flow between high pressure over Mexico and a series of low pressure troughs passing by well to our north. The second trough in the series will be the only feature of concern through the period.
As the low level jet continues to veer with time, the thunderstorm activity over central Kansas should propagate eastward out of the area. MOS guidance is a degree or two warmer for today than previous runs. This will push another cold front south into western Kansas, providing a chance for storms late Thursday afternoon and evening.
Meanwhile many of the meso models show that as the short trough moves east out of the central Dakotas, a cluster of showers and thunderstorms will move east toward the area. On Thursday night, another short wave trough will move through the area. Warm front remains nearly stationary across central Iowa tonight. An upper level disturbance tracking along warm front will produce a complex of storms across the region.
Indians will stay between high pressure over to the south and east and a front over the Great Lakes into Thursday.
253 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016 Upper air pattern continues a suppressed ridge across the southern conus with nearly zonal flow across the high plains. A trough/low is moving east near the Montana/Canadian border. At the surface a low was analyzed across northeast Wyoming with a warm front/stationary boundary to the southeast across the panhandle of Nebraska then curves east across southern Nebraska. A cold front trails from the low to the southwest. First is the low as it pushes towards the Black Hills.
326 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016 A ridge across the eastern Great Lakes will continue to weaken ahead of an area of low pressure that is expected to move across the Central Great Lakes this evening.
Weak cold front still pushing toward northeast Utah with the only real affect of helping to increase winds across our northwest CWA. Temperatures trends from 24 hours ago a bit warmer under this dry airmass so did up temperatures a few degrees. A low pressure system will move along the U. and Canada border today with its relatively dry cold front brushing past northeast Utah and northwest Colorado. The next low pressure disturbance will then move across the northwest states and northern Rockies Sun-Tue. and A disturbance and cold front passing just north of the area today will bring increasing west winds across the region.
Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis is indicating weak to moderate west to southwest flow aloft across the region, with upper level ridging in place across the Desert Southwest through the southern High Plains, as a broad upper low and trough is moving across the Pac NW at this time. Moderate west to southwest flow aloft continues across the region, as the Pac NW upper trough continues to translate east across the Northern Tier. Although cant totally rule out spotty high based convection across the higher terrain, have kept silent pops across the area, save for slight pops across the far se plains this afternoon. strongest across the higher terrain. High temperatures will be a few degrees cooler Thursday afternoon, but the potential for thunderstorms and meaningful precipitation remains very low as moisture is limited.
We're really right on the lower edge of heat advisory criteria for today and tomorrow, particularly with this update.
A deep layered ridge is centered over the Western Caribbean. At the surface, the Western Atlantic ridge axis extends west across the Florida Peninsula.
Keeping an eye out to the northwest where a mid level closed low is over Saint Louis with a 55 knot speed max just to south of the low center. Air mass pretty well worked over down this way across Kentucky and at least the north half of Middle Tennessee with surface temps inthe lower 70's and upper 60's based on msas.
Hot and humid conditons will continue as deep layer ridging holds over the region. These temperatures combined with the high dew points will cause heat indices to once again approach the Heat Advisory criteria of 108 or higher, but like today not expecting these high values to be widespread so will not be issuing an advisory at this time. A light wind flow is expected through the weekend as ridging aloft remains centered over the state. There will remain enough moisture in place for isolated to low-end scattered storm coverage through the weekend but mid-level ridge will suppress overall convective coverage compared to normal for early/mid July.
The dry cold front across northwest Utah bring slightly cooler temperatures to the north through Thursday.
The primary area of interest for the short term is beginning to materialize over southeastern Montana, with an area of low pressure west of Miles City is progged to move into the western Dakotas around midnight. As the Theta E ridge shifts eastward, storms should begin to develop in the late evening and spread into western CWA by midnight. Given model differences on eastward extent of showers/storms, favoring a SREF/superblend solution that gives rather high POPs west of Devils Lake by morning, spreading into the RRV by 1 PM and into eastern zones during the afternoon hours as the inverted trough shifts into the valley. Large hail and damaging winds will be primary threats although a tornado in the vicinity of the inverted trough is possible.
A mid level moist axis is progged to setup from the Big Bend region extending nwd into the NW PB/SE NM areas, but within the axis of high pressure aloft.
A mid-to-upper level subtropical ridge remains centered over the Big Bend region with an H850-700 ridge over Florida. Temperatures are currently in the mid to upper 90s over much of the region with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s along and east of I-35. Heat indices today should be 1-2 degrees below what they were yesterday, and this trend is expected to continue tomorrow as well as the ridge gradually weakens due to upper level troughs passing along its northern periphery in the Central Plains and Midwest.
228 PM EDT Wed Jul 6 2016 After another warm day across the North Country today, a trough of low pressure approaching from southeastern Ontario will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region Thursday afternoon.
However, convection will develop upstream over the high Plains this evening, and move east tonight into Thursday morning.
This afternoon and evening: Forecast is rapidly evolving as a trough to the east moves into Montana. This is generating low pressure aloft and pulling surface moisture into far eastern Montana which is feeding a developing MCS moving across the Yellowstone Valley. These showers will last through the evening as the low twists across the area but the most severe elements should be out of the area by 8AM.
Low pressure will approach the region tonight and cross the area Thursday. A weak cold front will stall south of the region tonight. Late tonight and early thursday an area of low pressure will move along this front and approach the state from the west.
Low pressure will approach the region tonight and cross the area Thursday. A weak cold front remains draped across central portions of our forecast area this evening. The front will push a bit further south overnight while low pressure slides along it from the west. This low will bring steadier rain as we head towards midnight, especially to northern areas. A weak cold front will stall south of the region tonight. Late tonight and early thursday an area of low pressure will move along this front and approach the state from the west.
Temperatures looks to warm through the lower and middle 80s most areas. Said mid level trough rotates to the Great Lakes by the weekend.
1101 AM MDT WED JUL 6 2016 Vigorous upper trough will advect through the northern plains in the period, supporting period sf showers and thunderstorms, some of which will be severe. Very unstable conditions with a weak cap should allow storms to fire quickly this afternoon along the trough, which will be in far eastern WY. Potent upper trough with jet streak forcing and lingering moisture will support sct-isold high based shra/ts tonight into thur morning as this system progresses east and the main sfc based activity exits the fa. Cooler weather is expected thurs behind the cold front, with 70s likely most places, a few 80s scentral.
An upper level low, currently lying just west of British Columbia, will dig to the southeast and push a cold front through the region tomorrow afternoon and evening.
1234 PM MDT WED JUL 6 2016 Upper level trof over the Northern Rockies is slowly shifting east this afternoon, with upper flow becoming more southwesterly over the forecast area. Vigorous upper trough will advect through the northern plains in the period, supporting period sf showers and thunderstorms, some of which will be severe. Very unstable conditions with a weak cap should allow storms to fire quickly this afternoon along the trough, which will be in far eastern WY. Potent upper trough with jet streak forcing and lingering moisture will support sct-isold high based shra/ts tonight into thur morning as this system progresses east and the main sfc based activity exits the fa. Cooler weather is expected thurs behind the cold front, with 70s likely most places, a few 80s scentral.
Later tonight, beginning to transition over to ECAM guidance for POPs through 06Z, which are a bit slower than prev forecast on more organized area of warm advection precipitation moving across N Central SD in the late evening as inverted trough enters far western Dakotas. Tonight region comes under increasingly SW flow aloft as mid level trough continues to dig and shift east. Increased pops from west to east late as inverted trough develops over the central dakotas and forcing increases. On Thursday upper trof propagates east into the fa.
549 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016 A surface pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the northern Gulf of Mexico through the week. A weak pressure trough will linger near the forecast area.
Further west highs in the lower 90s seem possible. Dewpoints will remain high in the lower to mid 70s.
336 PM EDT Wed Jul 6 2016 After another warm day across the North Country today, a trough of low pressure approaching from southeastern Ontario will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region Thursday afternoon.
Given the higher dewpoints and possible clouds, should see highs several degrees above normal tonight.
Instead, eyes turn westward, as Height falls in the High Plains and ensuing warm frontogenesis will lift a pool of better sourced moisture overtop/across the mid Mississippi valley with time, as Water Vapor loops show a southwesterly flow aloft with Pacific connection. The end result will be increasingly higher Pops each day, peaking as the High Plains storm makes its way into and across the Great Lakes, trailing a cold front across the Mid Mississippi valley and our region.
320 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 Surface ridging will maintain control over Southeast Michigan into the overnight hours. While the sky will not be cloud free, the combination of relatively clear skies, radiatively re-enforced cool near surface conditions should support the development of patchy fog near warmer bodies of water and low lying areas. Well defined mid-latitude cyclone emerging onto the northern Plains is driving downstream ridge amplification over the upper Mississippi Valley.
124 PM EDT Thu Sep 15 2016 Building high pressure will provide dry weather and seasonal temperatures until the approach of a weekend frontal system. Main change was to add a slight chance of a shower or storm to the southeastern ridges this afternoon. As high pressure shifts east Friday, some moisture return on low-level easterly flow may bring a stray shower into the ridges Friday afternoon.
259 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016 Upper level low which has been responsible for the continued rain opportunities will move only a couple hundred miles between this evening and tomorrow as it makes its way across North Dakota. A ribbon of mid level vorticity is set to approach the TX Panhandle early Friday morning to help drive the cold front into the Panhandle.
Tonight, the short wave exits, only to be replaced by the main upper level trough. The mid level QG forcing remains very persistent in these locations until late tonight when it rapidly fades away as the upper trough moves eastward. Have raised pops across southwest Minnesota into northwest Iowa as stubborn upper level low lingers across the east through the morning hours.
High pressure continues to dominate the areas weather with mostly clear skies and dry conditions along with above normal temperatures. TAF sites will be on the eastern flank of an upper level ridge, which will keep conditions VFR over the next 24 hours.
Water vapor imagery showing positively tilted trough over the northern Rockies this morning. This is driven east into Wisconsin this evening as the upper trough translates east. With decent forcing along the trough as it lifts east.
Lingering moisture and light E/SE flow are generating some isolated showers along the ridges in Tucker County at present. Continued easterly flow may generate some low clouds along the eastern ridges, and possibly spotty drizzle in our southeastern counties. The midlevel ridge axis passes through on Friday, with continued easterly flow. Isolated showers may occur along the ridges during the day given the upslope flow and pooling moisture. Southwest flow at 850 mb will bring in warmer temperatures aloft, leading to an increase in max temps above climatology. A broad upper trough will plague the region over the weekend causing widespread rain as a slow moving surface boundary crosses the forecast area.
This forcing is the result of broad troughing over much of the western U. a similar setup will remain in place across the region with broad troughing keeping some weak ascent across mainly our northwest counties. a weak cold front will slide south into central Oklahoma.
130 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 High pressure passes to our east today.
(Issued 1053 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2016) A weak prefrontal trough axis currently stretches from western North Carolina west-southwest through northeastern AL further west to near the Columbus, MS.
145 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2016 Deep/vigorous closed low and trough over the entering the Northern Plains from MT/WY per latest water vapor imagery/RAP 500mb analysis. Mid-level low/trough pushes a cold front through the area Friday but with ongoing convection/cloud cover/less cape and lack of good convergence along the front and mid-level pv forcing heading north of the area.
The upper ridge axis extending southwest out of the mid Atlantic states into the appalachians should slowly weaken and move northeast with time as an upper trough digs southeast into the central plains on Friday.
358 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016 A trough over the Rockies is trying to nudge the dominant ridge camped out over the eastern CONUS.
118 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016 The center of upper level low pressure will track from Montana into North Dakota today. This is part of a large upper level trough that will track from the Rockies into the central plains by tonight. As low pressure deepens in eastern Colorado, surface winds will tend to back to the southeast which should hold low level moisture in place. With at least some breaks in the clouds, surface instability will increase with the low level moisture in place. The cold front and attendant mid-level trough will largely be east of the cwa Friday.
Easterly flow persists ahead of broad low pressure over the W Central Gulf.
However, upper level ridging will remain in place over our area, along with drier air pushing in from the north to the west of TD Julia. Lows will be in the low-mid 70s inland, with upper 70s expected along the coast.
652 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 High pressure over New England tonight will move offshore Friday.
239 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016 An upper ridge remains located across the Mid-South this afternoon. Current temperatures are in the lower to mid 90s. The upper ridge will begin to break down on Friday. This will allow a cold front that is currently located across the Upper Midwest to sink into the Mid-South over the weekend.
A weak cold front will drift south across the Carolinas through Friday, with high pressure building in late this weekend.
503 PM EDT Thu Sep 15 2016 Humidity will be on the increase Friday ahead of approaching low pressure and a cold front for the weekend. Easterly low level flow from exiting high pressure will keep some stratus into the southeast ridges overnight with mid and high clouds elsewhere. Dew points will begin to increase into the 60s Friday as moisture returns ahead of an approaching mid level trough and frontal boundary. Southeast fetch into the ridges will also bring isolated showers. A broad upper trough will plague the region over the weekend causing widespread rain as a slow moving surface boundary crosses the forecast area.
An upper low pressure system was moving east of the Rockies, lifting toward the Dakotas with a lead wave moving out of Wyoming into Nebraska. Looking for storm initiation to occur in western Kansas heading late this afternoon with the storms tracking northeast into our western counties this evening, with convection becoming more widespread heading into tonight across our cwa in increasing dynamics as the upper system moves into the Dakotas and the associated cold frontal boundary advances across the Central Plains. The weekend period is shaping up to be nice weatherwise in fairly zonal but progressive flow behind the departing upper trough.
A warming trend will begin Friday and extend through the weekend as high pressure builds into California and weak offshore flow develops. Temperatures are running warmer than yesterday across inland areas, especially in the east bay where upper 70s and 80s are being observed, generally 2-5 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Near the coast and bays, cooler temperatures are being observed, generally lower 60s to lower 70s, 2-4 degrees cooler than yesterday at this time. High pressure will gradually build into Northern California from the west.
These were being driven by the low level jet nose pointing into that area, along with several weak 500 mb vorticity maxima providing some differential cyclonic vorticity advection. The models are showing the low level jet shifting eastward over the area later tonight into Friday.