Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
636 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. THE DRY SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM OFF THE COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER EASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS A SMALL RAIN CHANCE. WE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON THE RECENT BIAS AND RELATIVELY WARM START. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONIGHT BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. THE MODELS KEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER RIDGING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST CHANGING LITTLE. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE. USED THE WARMER LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.
101 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS INDIANA WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER WITH SLIGHT WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ON TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. MEANWHILE A RIDGE CONTINUES WEST TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEN MODELS CONTINUE TO ALL BE IN AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BRINGING CLOUDS INTO OUR AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCES SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND ESPECIALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN MOST COUNTIES.
DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN THOUGH MIN RELATIVELY HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S/HIGH 20S. UPPER LEVEL STEERING WINDS KEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FROM MOVING INTO THIS AREA.
RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE ACRS INTERIOR SE TX WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING COURTESY OF AN IMPULSE ALOFT APPROACHING FM THE SW AND A WEAK COASTAL SFC TROF. THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL TROF EXTENDS ALONG THE TX COAST NE ALONG THE LA COAST TOWARD SE LA WITH LT E TO NE WINDS ACRS THE AREA. THE AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE MOIST DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE TROF. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL TROF OVER SE TX TODAY. THIS WILL BRING A WARM FRONT NORTH ACRS THE REGION DURNIG THE AFTN. DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE UPR TROF BECOMING STATIONARY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW AND BRING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES INTO TUESDAY. LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. FOR NOW WE PLAN ON CARRYING FLURRIES OR SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE. IF FREEZING DRIZZLE LOOK LIKE IT WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND TONIGHT AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST OF REGION.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER CHIHUAHUA MEXICO WITH A BROAD AREA OF SW JET STREAM FLOW ALOFT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. AS THIS TROUGH HEADS EAST TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 70S AS THE WAA SURGES NORTH ALONG THE COAST WHILE TO THE WEST A MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS TEMPS CLOSER TO THE 60S WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST AND COASTAL LOW LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST. BY TUESDAY THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA SHIFTING THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS ALONG THE COAST AND GULF WATERS. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM UP NEAR THE 70S TOWARDS THE WEST AND MID TO LOW 60S OVER THE LOWER VALLEY.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 62 52 68 58 / 70 100 80 60 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 63 48 65 55 / 60 100 80 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 63 47 62 55 / 50 100 80 70 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 60 44 62 52 / 20 90 80 60.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE ON TUESDAY WITH THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE WEST COAST POISED TO SHIFT EAST TO THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
340 AM PDT Mon Mar 9 2015 Above normal temperatures continue into Tuesday under strong high pressure.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER TO THE REGION BY MID WEEK. AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AIR MASS WILL ESTABLISH LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
336 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015 THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING ELONGATED WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING FROM WEST-TO-EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AND ACTIVE TROFFINESS OVER THE GRT BSN AND SW PLAINS. BUT UPSTREAM SECONDARY UPPER TROF CURRENTLY ACRS UT/WEST CO WILL LOOK TO SCOOT ACRS WESTERN IA BY TUE MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH THICKENING HIGH CLOUD SHIELD ACRS AT LEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA OFF LOWER MS RVR VALLEY PASSING LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX. WILL MAKE FOR LOWS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE SOUTH TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH WIND TO MAINTAIN ENOUGH ALONG WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS/CIRRUS TO LIMIT MUCH OF ANY FOG THREAT LATE TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
649 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT.
142 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 WEAK FEATURES PASS BOTH TO OUR SOUTH AND NORTH TONIGHT WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE BRINGS RAIN TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. RECENTLY THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH SATURATING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
131 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
634 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT BRINGS RAIN TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BY MIDWEEK. FOLLOWED BY A LOW PRESSURE LATE WEEK. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL TODAY WITH RELAXED WINDS AND DRY WEATHER. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO INCREASE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MOST IF NOT ALL OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS OUR TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.
616 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL MOVE EAST BY DAWN OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE LOW DEVELOPING IN TX/LA. TUESDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST EVENTUALLY REACHING THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE LOW.
621 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. THE DRY SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM OFF THE COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER EASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS A SMALL RAIN CHANCE TONIGHT. WE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON THE RECENT BIAS AND RELATIVELY WARM START. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONIGHT BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. THE MODELS KEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER RIDGING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST CHANGING LITTLE. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE. USED THE WARMER LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.
355 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL KEEP AN EAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TOMORROW WILL SEE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
339 AM PDT MON MAR 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM JUST OFFSHORE TO OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THIS PERIOD.
THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUE NIGHT. LEE TROUGHING WILL CREATE WINDY CONDITIONS FROM HARLOWTON TO BIG TIMBER TO KLVM. THE LEE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN LOCATIONS. THE LEE TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN UP A BIT TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT CONTINUING WINDY CONDITIONS W OF KBIL. THE MEAN 500MB RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD.
1002 PM PDT Sun Mar 8 2015 Above normal temperatures continue through Monday under strong high pressure. A weather system will bring a chance of showers and cooler weather by mid-week. Clear Skies and light winds overnight under strong upper level high pressure. Little change expected Monday as dry and mild conditions continue for the region as the strong ridge remains in place along the west coast. Change toward cooler and more unsettled weather begins to take place on Tuesday as the ridge is forecast to begin moving east as the trough over the eastern Pacific begins to approach the coast.
UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD ON FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS PROVIDING THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY.
330 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY.
AS AN UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO DIG SEWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO. THIS TROF WILL TAKE A MORE EWD TURN TODAY. TROF IS FCST TO LINGER OVER TX AND BECOME CUT OFF AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
1224 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2015 Mostly cloudy skies were being seen across the area this afternoon and that is keeping temperatures cooler than yesterday but still seasonably mild for this time of year. Upper level low near West Texas will slowly work across the southern U.
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE TROUGH. WITH UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
410 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2015 An upper level low will slowly move east today causing rain chances to increase mainly south and east of a line from Marfa to Snyder. The low will eject northeast today but an upper trough will remain through Tuesday leaving slight rain chances mainly in the higher elevations west of the Pecos River.
INCREASING H85 TEMPS TODAY WITH MIXING REALIZED TO THIS LEVEL IN THE SOUTHWEST WILL YIELD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) A low pressure system over TX and northern Mexico will continue to spread moisture northward today, leading to an increase in mid and high level clouds. The additional cloudiness will keep temps a few degrees cooler than yesterday in most locations. Highs in the low to mid 50s across southwest and southern IL will be close to average while highs in the lower 60s in central MO will be about 8 degrees above average for this time of year.
316 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015 WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS GRADUALLY SETTLED SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH A BIT STRONGER TROF MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE OZARKS TONIGHT. THE REST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES A TAD COOLER THOUGH REMAINING ABOVE EARLY MARCH CLIMO.
I TRENDED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS MAXES.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH CO TODAY. THE AXIS OF THE WESTERN LOBE OF THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SWD THROUGH UT AND NV. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER PLEASANT SPRING-LIKE DAY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH TEMPS FOR THE PLAINS GETTING JUST BELOW FREEZING. AND TEENS FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
There will be some increase in moisture today as a large upper level trough digs west of the area, but ceilings are expected to remain VFR at around 4000-5000 ft. The overnight analysis reveals a large upper trough digging into Mexico with weak surface ridging over the local area. As we move through today, surface ridging will slide eastward slightly with winds veering to a more southeasterly direction.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN THE PROCESS OF BUILDING OVER THE REGION AS A DEPARTING WARM FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST. THE WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COULD EVEN SEE SOME RECORD HIGHS. THIS SAME WARM AIR WILL BEGIN TO FORM SURFACE BASED INVERSIONS OVERNIGHT IN WHICH SOME PATCHY FOG COULD FORM MAINLY AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN.
308 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROF WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO CENTRAL PA TONIGHT.
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA BEHIND OUR SYSTEM WITH NO FURTHER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TODAY. BUT WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE FREEZING.
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY MORNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND.
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MAKING HEADWAY INTO THE MIDWEST WILL VEER WINDS MORE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ALOFT ATTEMPTS TO BACKDOOR INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS.
LIGHT WESTERLY WIND WILL PERSIST WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF NE OK.
REINFOR- CING COLD FRONT LATE SUN NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH (BY WAY OF PCPN). MORNING MIN TEMPS WERE IN THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND EVEN SOME FREEZING TEMPS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. ON A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY SO MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S LOOK ON TRACK.
130 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BRING CONTINUED WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
352 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT INTO THE REGION AND THIS WAS THE REASON FOR THE BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE FIRMLY IN PLACE AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S FOR UPCOMING WEEK.
341 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UPPER LEVEL TROF ALSO CROSSES THE AREA DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH SOME DECENT VORTICITY ADVECTION. MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WESTERLY WINDS/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SOME MIXING HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS.
1214 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
MORNING MIN TEMPS WERE IN THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND EVEN SOME FREEZING TEMPS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. ON A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY SO MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S LOOK ON TRACK.
TEMPERATURES HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE LAST HOUR. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FALL BELOW FREEZING AGAIN.
WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT SURFACE WINDS TO NORTHWEST AROUND 01Z AND 03Z SUNDAY AT NORTHERN TERMINALS AND KAMA RESPECTIVELY. TODAY AND TONIGHT DOWNSLOPING SURFACE WINDS AND NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE MANAGED TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING AREA WIDE. THIS SYSTEM WILL FORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT. WITH SLIGHTLY-ENHANCED NORTHWEST POST-FRONTAL WINDS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXED ENOUGH TO BOTH PRECLUDE ANY PATCHY FOG THAT OTHERWISE MIGHT RESULT FROM TODAY/S SNOWMELT.
952 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015 THE FAMILIAR PATTERN OF A WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH THIS WINTER REMAINS IN PLACE THE 00Z HAND ANALYSIS CHART. THIS TROUGH GETS RE-ENFORCED BY ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH TOPPING THE RIDGE AND DROPPING INTO THE MIDWEST. THE JET TRANSLATING EASTWARD WILL PULL THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER INLAND. A CLOSED LOW SITUATED NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD. BUT ENCOUNTERS THE STRONG RIDGE AXIS THAT COVERS UTAH AND COLORADO. RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION AND ANY QPF WILL BE LIGHT.
1105 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015 WARM ADVECTION RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING CWA WIDE.
Statistical guidance numbers are all over the board tomorrow, but we've leaned toward the warmer GFS based MOS, with highs generally in the mid 60s.
Northwesterly upper flow will bring a cold front into the area tomorrow, but there will be little if any cold air behind it so expect temperatures to be much like today.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING 10-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE LATE MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
115 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UPPER LEVEL TROF ALSO CROSSES THE AREA DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH SOME DECENT VORTICITY ADVECTION. MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
930 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BRING WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1029 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS HIS MORNING. SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH LEADING TO SOME PATCHY FOG AND TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND SUB FREEZING TEMPS COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY BLACK ICE THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. AIRMASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM IS NOT TOO COLD AND HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LIGHT WSW WIND. LATEST MODELS ARE DEPICTING A MORE POTENT UPPER TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SE INTO MIDDLE AND EAST TN BY SUNDAY EVENING.
AS STRONG A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER THE MID- MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOMORROW.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
249 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY CLEARED THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL THEN DOMINATE SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A FEW SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS ARE AFFECTING THE SOUTH FL TERMINALS, BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DRY AIR USHERS INTO THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. /ISSUED 1022 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015/ COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING. DRY AND MUCH COOLER AIR MASS SHOULD THEN FILTER ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING TO THE EAST COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND EXITING THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
1153 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015 An upper level trough is pushing off to the east towards the east coast early this morning. Behind the trough mostly sunny and warmer conditions will occur today. Highs will range from the lower 50s across the eastern Ozarks to upper 50s across portions of extreme southeastern Kansas this afternoon. The better moisture and energy with this system will remain to the east of the area, but there should be enough lift across the eastern Ozarks to squeeze out some sprinkles or light rain on Sunday as the trough moves through the area. Temperatures will be a little cooler on Sunday with an increase in cloud cover and the light rain moving through the area. Also, a cooler air mass will start to spread south later in the day as the trough passes through the region.
BEHIND IT, COOLER WEATHER AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.
1124 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA.
BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FA WHERE TEMPS ARE WARMER. 12Z MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A FURTHER WEST TRACK TO THIS BAND OF LIGHT PCPN OR PLACING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW FROM KDVL DOWN THRU THE WAHPETON BRECKENRIDGE AREA AND NOTHING ACROSS THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WITH SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE SOUTH SUNDAY AM FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. MINIMAL COOLING BEHIND THE LOW AND DEGREE OF CLEARING AND POTENTIAL SNOW COVER WILL GOVERN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM. LIGHT WESTERLY WIND WILL PERSIST WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF NE OK.
1242 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THIS MORNING.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INLAND WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.
WARM ADVECTION RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING CWA WIDE.
144 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT UP THE EAST COAST. WITH INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH AS A STRONG AND COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THINK WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE REASONABLE AS RELATIVELY WARM AIR IS MIXED DOWN VIA THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ADIABATIC MIXING. THEREFORE, INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WEST COAST THROUGH FEBRUARY 3RD AND BEYOND WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN SEABOARD. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED UNDERCUT THE WESTERN RIDGE AND PROGRESS FROM WEST OF BAJA ON JAN 28TH TO NEAR BAJA ON JAN 31ST AND THEN ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO FEB 2ND, BUT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER IN WESTERN KANSAS.
300 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015 THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURED A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U. AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. WAA AT RIDGE LEVEL WORKS AGAINST SNOWFALL AND SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR A LITTLE MORE THROUGH NOON SUNDAY.
1231 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UPPER LEVEL TROF ALSO CROSSES THE AREA DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH SOME DECENT VORTICITY ADVECTION. MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.