Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
106 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020 Clearing skies today as high pressure moves into the region with a few showers possible across northern Minnesota in the afternoon. Light showers over southern Price county are slowly dissipating as a cold front moves east, and look to move out of the CWA by the late morning hours. 06Z model soundings near INL have dry air in the lower levels this afternoon, so very little accumulation is likely. Partly cloudy skies are in store for Friday as high pressure settles over the Upper Midwest.
Current temps as of 1730 UTC range from the lower 50s in the north central where cloud cover has been prevalent throughout the day, to the upper 60s in the far south central. Surface cold front continues to slowly push south, with a low stratus deck currently spreading over north central and northeast North Dakota. Cold front now moving into northern North Dakota with some cloud cover also reachng the border. Today, a cold front will move into the state from Saskatchewan and Manitoba, bringing cooler temperatures and gusty winds.
Severe storms are possible tomorrow with the passage of a cold front. Tonight, as the upper low does progress into the Mid-Atlantic, continued forcing will allow for showers lasting into the overnight hours. The forecast period will begin with a strong upper level trough tracking across the northern CONUS and into the Great Lakes. The trough will push into the Middle Atlantic pushing a cold front into the area by Friday afternoon. A slow passage due to ridging over the Atlantic will keep precip over the forecast area for the majority of Friday night.
This Evening-Tonight: N-NNW flow aloft will prevail over the region -- on the NE periphery of an amplifying upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest/Intermountain West. With NW flow aloft and southerly low-level flow on the eastern periphery of a developing lee trough, isolated convection cannot be ruled out in Colorado and adjacent KS border counties during the late afternoon and evening hours -- though confidence remains very low with regard to whether or not convection will develop. Large, amplified, slow moving upper ridge will be the dominant feature this period.
158 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020 Strong stacked ridging resides over the Western Atlantic. Meanwhile, a closed upper level trough currently over Arkansas will lift northeast and merge with a secondary trough digging over the Great Lakes region. For today, the low level ridge axis will be over SWFL with weak southerly/southwesterly flow over the area. Nevertheless, highs in the low 90s, dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s (making it feel in excess of 100 degrees), and afternoon thunderstorms will give us good taste of summer. Tomorrow, surface ridging will build slightly and move north, bringing more of a southerly/southeasterly flow to our area.
343 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020 18Z surface data has a weak low over eastern Iowa near KCWI that was moving along the cold front. The cold front ran from southeast Wisconsin, through eastern Iowa and into southern Kansas.
As low pressure crosses the central Rockies and toward the High Plains region, the high will begin to get pushed east.
Cloud streamers have formed off the larger islands of the lower Keys parallel to low level flow, but have produced only one or two brief small showers. This should allow the Atlantic ridge axis to retreat and lift northward over the peninsula, becoming less defined over our area.
230 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020 Tonight and Friday: With the exception of the northern third, deep convection has been hard to come by, as well as low clouds as the lower levels remain relatively dry.
As the upper level low fills and pulls to the northeast later in the period, MVFR and IFR ceilings will prevail at all sites beginning around daybreak and last through the mid-morning hours.
1036 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020 Clearing skies today as high pressure moves into the region with a few showers possible across northern Minnesota in the afternoon. Light showers over southern Price county are slowly dissipating as a cold front moves east, and look to move out of the CWA by the late morning hours. 06Z model soundings near INL have dry air in the lower levels this afternoon, so very little accumulation is likely. Partly cloudy skies are in store for Friday as high pressure settles over the Upper Midwest.
Most activity at the time of writing this has struggled to maintain itself, largely due to warmer air in the low levels (~800mb via AMDAR soundings) and marginal mid-level lapse rates. As low level lapse rates continue to steepen this afternoon, we may see some of that warm air in the low levels erode and storms take on more strength given some marginal deep layer shear in place (25-30kts 0-6km bulk shear). A cold front will approach and move through the region tomorrow.
The rain continues to be on the backside of an upper low that has been affecting the region for the last few days. This upper low is expected to continue to move east this afternoon and tonight which would bring an end to the rain once it moved far enough east.
304 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020 The forecast area remains in a moist and unstable regime this afternoon as the closed low that has been lingering to the west for several days is finally beginning to transition into an open wave. On Friday, the former upper low will have been absorbed into the main trough progressing eastward. As this trough and associated surface cold front approach on Friday, it will provide the impetus for additional shower and thunderstorm development.
255 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020 A deep upper level low over Arkansas has provided northerly flow over the Permian Basin that pushed a cold front through earlier today.
1114 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020 Latest WV imagery and UA analysis shows the upper low migrating slowly over AR. /issued 330 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020/ Upper low still nearly stationary across OK and AR this morning. The low will begin to open up and lift out to the northeast resulting in a weak front entering into the region this afternoon into tonight.
341 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020 The convergent axis with moderate to heavy rain should finally begin to diminish over the next few hours as the upper low finally begins to shift northeast and forcing weakens near the KS/MO border. High pressure will build into the region providing a nice day on Friday with highs in the mid to upper 70s along with low humidities. An upper ridge will begin to build into the Rockies with northwest flow aloft across the Plains over the weekend.
1212 PM MDT Thu May 28 2020 An upper ridge will build into the Rockies today with 30 to 50 meter rises over the forecast area. This ridging should suppress much if not all convection, but cannot rule out a stray shower near the mountains decaying quickly as they push east southeast into adjacent foothills. Most areas will also see highs a few degrees warmer than yesterday. On Friday, the upper ridge will remain in place, but weak disturbances moving through the ridge and slight instability will allow for isolated to locally scattered diurnal thunderstorms mainly over the north.
/Tonight through Thursday/ An upper trough across the Northern Plains has opened up the closed low over the Central/Southern Plains and the whole system is pushing east. A cold front has made it through all but the far southeast portion of the state and the remaining precip will be ending as the drier air works in.
341 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020 Upper level low centered around the ArkLaTex region will be weakening and eventually absorbed into a longwave trough further north. A frontal boundary currently inching its way through the area and exiting off the coast is still a potential focus for showers and thunderstorms today but for the most part it seems confined to offshore waters where the upper trough axis is located.
The mid-level closed low has opened up and will move off to the east to allow high pressure to build in.
The recent closed low that has been to the south of the area is finally beginning the process of reintegrating back into the upper- level flow and releasing its influence on the area. A weak cold front was able to clear out cloud cover as it passed through the are this morning and has left somewhat breezy northerly winds in its wake. With the only clouds being high-altitude cirrus, surface temperatures have responded quickly, pushing temps closer and closer to the lower 80's. The approaching ridge is now centered over western Montana and is poised to continue its march eastward towards the central U.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 83 63 81 59 / 30 60 30 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 81 62 79 57 / 30 50 40 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 63 81 61 79 57 / 30 60 40 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 81 59 77 53 / 40 50 50 20 0.
An upper low centered over Arkansas breaks down to an open wave today, then phases tonight with an amplifying upper trof moving out of the Northern Plains to form a larger scale upper trof over the eastern states. A weak surface trof currently extends from Missouri/Arkansas to across western Mississippi then into central Louisiana. The weak surface trof is expected to advance eastward into the forecast area this afternoon, then stall and gradually weaken further tonight. A cold front meanwhile advances from the Southern Plains and moves into the western portion of the forecast area Friday afternoon. Lows tonight range from the mid 60s inland to around 70 at the coast, then highs on Friday will be in the lower to mid 80s.
339 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020 The closed upper low over Arkansas is finally opening up and beginning to lift east northeast. A band of showers and thunderstorms was currently rotating down its backside across the area along a cold front. High pressure will settle over the area Friday night making for a clear and cool night across the region.
Cold air advection from the front has kept us relatively cool today, with widespread highs in the 60s and a few locations in the far south reaching the lower 70s. Skies are expected to slowly clear this evening and overnight, with overnight lows mainly in the lower 40s. Temperatures will be slightly below average again, after today's cold front, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A mostly quiet weekend is expected as upper level ridging slowly builds across the Northern Plains.
The upper low that has been influencing conditions across the area will continue to dominate weather across the CWA today as it slides east across Arkansas. Precipitation will end west to east tonight as the upper level low gets caught in the upper level flow and moves quickly NE. Surface ridging and NW upper level flow will dominate the forecast through the weekend.
235 PM MDT Thu May 28 2020 An upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest today will slowly shift east over the next 24 hours and be centered over the Four Corners Friday afternoon. This will result in warmer temperatures across the area Friday with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s over northeast Colorado. With the ridge building over the region, warming aloft is occurring. This along with cooler surface temperatures behind this morning's cold front is helping to stabilize the airmass. Best chance for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be over the higher terrain to the southwest of Denver. Across the Urban Corridor and eastern plains, just a slight chance thunderstorms survive moving off the higher terrain.
The persistent upper low over the central plains and MS Valley the past few days will finally get absorbed into a system moving across southern Canada this evening. The cold front associated with this system is moving across central and southern WI this afternoon and has been the focus for the showers and storms. A breezy and cooler day is forecast for Friday with highs in the 60s to around 70 degrees under mostly sunny skies.
An upper ridge will continue the warming trend today with highs 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday (around 15 degrees above normal).
241 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020 The main influence on our weather is a slow-moving 500 mb closed low over Arkansas. On Friday, a surface cold front will move southeast across most of our region in the morning.
Upper-level ridging remains in control Friday w/ the CWA remaining on the northern periphery of the 4 Corners High. There is a chance that weak disturbances riding along the edge of the ridge could be foci for convective development on Friday, but in general we would expect the better chances for showers & thunderstorms to be placed to the north within stronger NW flow aloft. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms expected this week as daytime high temperatures rise under the influence of a stubborn upper level ridge, called an omega block, builds aloft.
It's a quiet morning across Middle Tennessee owing to a dry slot being pulled around an upper low that is currently situated over the Ozarks.
/issued 1114 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020/ Latest WV imagery and UA analysis shows the upper low migrating slowly over AR. /issued 330 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020/ Upper low still nearly stationary across OK and AR this morning. The low will begin to open up and lift out to the northeast resulting in a weak front entering into the region this afternoon into tonight.
High pressure aloft will strengthen over the region through Friday resulting in hot, dry, mid-summer conditions. This high will move east early in the upcoming weekend, allowing for a southerly flow aloft to develop across the region. Strengthening of the upper ridge across the western states the next couple of days will result in hot, dry, summer- like conditions through end of the week.
/22/ Tonight and Friday: With the exception of the northern third, deep convection has been hard to come by, as well as low clouds as the lower levels remain relatively dry.
The main influence on our weather is a slow-moving 500 mb closed low over Arkansas. On Friday, a surface cold front will move southeast across most of our region in the morning.
Morning lows look on track for the low to mid 60s again at most locations. /22/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Friday: With the exception of the northern third, deep convection has been hard to come by, as well as low clouds as the lower levels remain relatively dry.
516 PM MDT Thu May 28 2020 Satellite imagery shows scattered to broken cumulus off of the higher terrain but mostly sunny conditions in many lower elevations. Radar returns remain constrained to the higher mountains with a bit of virga spilling over into the lower elevations downwind. This will allow us to start breaking down the omega and nudge the ridge (currently the axis remains just west of our forecast area) slightly eastward during the short term. One thing to watch for Friday will be the potential for dry thunderstorms in the lower elevations (especially near the Utah/Colorado border). Moisture in the low levels has not quite caught up to what's trickling in at the mid levels. Temperatures will continue to climb well above normals for this time of year as the ridge axis moves directly over our CWA.
Broad upper low continues to spin over the Lower Mississippi River Valley at this hour, with a stronger northern stream working dropping into western Ontario. What follows will be a pretty dramatic change, as much cooler air aloft filters into the region into Friday, complete with 850mb temperatures dipping as low as 2-3C per current trends.
BDL The forecast area remains in a moist and unstable regime this afternoon as the closed low that has been lingering to the west for several days is finally beginning to transition into an open wave. On Friday, the former upper low will have been absorbed into the main trough progressing eastward. As this trough and associated surface cold front approach on Friday, it will provide the impetus for additional shower and thunderstorm development.
Otherwise high pressure and partly cloudy skies will remain intact through the night.
Very strong high pressure will dominate the weather this week with well above normal temperatures continuing in northern Arizona. These hot conditions will persist through Friday as strong high pressure is in place across the southwest United States. An Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect through Friday for the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon and southern Yavapai county.
900 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020 Widely scattered convection continues along and north of I-20 as a weak cold front drifts south across the region. Expecting most of this convection to diminish by midnight with overnight lows forecast to fall into the low to mid 60s. /Tonight through Friday Night/ Scattered to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, across the Four State Region, are rotating around an upper level low pressure system which is located over northern Arkansas. The upper low will begin to fill late this evening as a surface front pushes south across the area.
902 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020 Severe storms are possible tomorrow with the passage of a cold front. The Upr OH remains under southerly flow aloft resulting from wrn Atlantic ridging and cntrl North American, split-flow troughing. The forecast period will begin with a strong upper level trough tracking across the northern CONUS and into the Great Lakes. The trough will push into the Middle Atlantic pushing a cold front into the area by Friday afternoon. A slow passage due to ridging over the Atlantic will keep precip over the forecast area for the majority of Friday night.
Overnight lows still look like the lower 60s for most areas by sunrise. Will go ahead and update zones in the next hour to remove the higher pops from earlier.
Canadian high pressure will build south and east tonight and is expected to be situated over central ND Friday morning. Strong northwest winds will begin to subside in the next hour and should drop off quickly after 8 PM as High pressure builds over the forecast area this evening. Cold air advection from the front has kept us relatively cool today, with widespread highs in the 60s and a few locations in the far south reaching the lower 70s. Skies are expected to slowly clear this evening and overnight, with overnight lows mainly in the lower 40s. Temperatures will be slightly below average again, after today's cold front, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A mostly quiet weekend is expected as upper level ridging slowly builds across the Northern Plains.
High pressure aloft over Utah on Friday will produce hot, mid-summer conditions.
The convergent axis with moderate to heavy rain should finally begin to diminish over the next few hours as the upper low finally begins to shift northeast and forcing weakens near the KS/MO border. High pressure will build into the region providing a nice day on Friday with highs in the mid to upper 70s along with low humidities. An upper ridge will begin to build into the Rockies with northwest flow aloft across the Plains over the weekend.
18Z surface data has a weak low over eastern Iowa near KCWI that was moving along the cold front. The cold front ran from southeast Wisconsin, through eastern Iowa and into southern Kansas.
637 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020 The closed upper low over Arkansas is finally opening up and beginning to lift east northeast. A band of showers and thunderstorms was currently rotating down its backside across the area along a cold front. High pressure will settle over the area Friday night making for a clear and cool night across the region.
From the West Coast to Bermuda--ridge, trough, ridge, trough.
522 PM MDT Thu May 28 2020 19z surface analysis had high pressure over eastern MT nosing into the CWA. Friday, upper ridge over the western CONUS edges eastward. Lee trough/warm front develops under warm air advection regime from central MT into central WY.
/issued 255 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020/ A deep upper level low over Arkansas has provided northerly flow over the Permian Basin that pushed a cold front through earlier today.
Otherwise, another seasonably mild night is xpcted across the cntrl TN Valley, as mid/high clouds continue to spread into the region from the south, ahead of an approaching upper trough axis from over the Mid South region. Current temps range from the mid 60s to the mid 70s, and these readings should continue to fall more into the lower 60s for most spots overnight given the exiting rainfall. The upper-low will continue to shift east into Tennessee and the Ohio Valley on Friday, bringing a cold front across the region. Dry air will rush in behind the cold front as it clears the area between 21-00z, resulting in a quiet evening and nighttime period.
/Issued 304 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020/ The forecast area remains in a moist and unstable regime this afternoon as the closed low that has been lingering to the west for several days is finally beginning to transition into an open wave. On Friday, the former upper low will have been absorbed into the main trough progressing eastward. As this trough and associated surface cold front approach on Friday, it will provide the impetus for additional shower and thunderstorm development.
/Tonight through Friday Night/ Scattered to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, across the Four State Region, are rotating around an upper level low pressure system which is located over northern Arkansas. The upper low will begin to fill late this evening as a surface front pushes south across the area.
317 PM MDT Thu May 28 2020 The upper level ridge remains in place over the Great Basin and will slowly move east with time. The ridge axis moves further east, over Colorado, allowing for higher maximum temperatures and more moisture in the atmosphere.
Strong northwest winds will begin to subside in the next hour and should drop off quickly after 8 PM as High pressure builds over the forecast area this evening. Cold air advection from the front has kept us relatively cool today, with widespread highs in the 60s and a few locations in the far south reaching the lower 70s. Skies are expected to slowly clear this evening and overnight, with overnight lows mainly in the lower 40s. Temperatures will be slightly below average again, after today's cold front, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A mostly quiet weekend is expected as upper level ridging slowly builds across the Northern Plains.
The upper low is positioned over eastern Arkansas and is forecast to pivot ENE over the Tennessee Valley tonight. Most activity at the time of writing this has struggled to maintain itself, largely due to warmer air in the low levels (~800mb via AMDAR soundings) and marginal mid-level lapse rates. As low level lapse rates continue to steepen this afternoon, we may see some of that warm air in the low levels erode and storms take on more strength given some marginal deep layer shear in place (25-30kts 0-6km bulk shear). A cold front will approach and move through the region tomorrow.
817 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020 Unsettled conditions expected into the weekend as an upper trough approaches from the west.
1054 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020 Unsettled conditions expected into the weekend as an upper trough approaches from the west.
524 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020 Severe storms are possible tomorrow with the passage of a cold front. The Upr OH remains under southerly flow aloft resulting from wrn Atlantic ridging and cntrl North American, split-flow troughing. The forecast period will begin with a strong upper level trough tracking across the northern CONUS and into the Great Lakes. The trough will push into the Middle Atlantic pushing a cold front into the area by Friday afternoon. A slow passage due to ridging over the Atlantic will keep precip over the forecast area for the majority of Friday night.
304 AM EDT Fri May 29 2020 Unsettled conditions expected into the weekend as an upper trough approaches from the west.