Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper ridge remains in place and will continue to provide dry and stable conditions. The exception being southwest Montana where an upper low centered over southern Idaho continues to bring some moisture across the area and where an isolated thunderstorm or two is possible this afternoon. High pressure aloft will keep the airmass dry and stable across most of Central and Southwest Montana.
1139 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 Low pressure remains to the north as high pressure builds to the south through the mid to late week period.
With this, winds will be much lighter and temperatures will continue just below normal - in the lower to mid 70s. The high shifts eastward by Tuesday night with the low level flow transitioning to southerly on the backside of the high.
732 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 Scattered showers and cooler temperatures can be expected into the middle of the week. That could lead to more than one cell tracking over a similar area before the boundary finally starts to get kicked to the SE as the upper trough settles southeastward tonight. The best chances for showers and thunderstorms seem to be pointed toward this evening as the jet streaks overhead strengthen and the mid-level trough axis approaches. By 12z, the mid-level trough and axis of the jet streak will have passed to our east, essentially ending the threat of showers and thunderstorms. The dominant feature of the mid-week will remain the pinwheeling closed low pressure system centered near James Bay Canada.
1103 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 Reinforcing cold fronts late today and again Tuesday.
945 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 A cold front will move across the area early this morning. Low pressure remains to the north as high pressure builds to the south through the mid to late week period.
418 AM PDT MON JUN 6 2016 A ridge of high pressure will maintain much warmer than average temperatures across the central California interior through mid week. An afternoon thunderstorm is still possible over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada today as a weak low pressure system moves away, but conditions will otherwise remain dry. A stronger low pressure area will move through the region and lower temperatures to around seasonal averages by the end of the week. A weak upper level low pressure system currently dropping through the Great Basin region has helped to take a very slight bit of the edge off the very hot conditions across interior central California.
900 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 KBYX detects numerous showers over offshore Gulf of Mexico waters northwest of the Lower Keys, as well as over the western portion of the Florida Straits.
The highest rainfall amounts are expected in northern sections where rain and squalls should be most persistent.
1146 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 Scattered showers, thunderstorms, and cooler temperatures can be expected into the middle of the week. The dominant feature of the mid-week will remain the pinwheeling closed low pressure system centered near James Bay Canada.
1154 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 A cold front will drop south from the Great Lakes today bringing another chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Expect these fairly stable conditions will erode into the mid to late afternoon as a pseudo warm frontal zone lifting northward near Cape Canaveral this continues to pivot across the area coupled with increasing dynamical forcing and low level shear.
941 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 Drier air will move into the area behind a cold front today.
As for Colin, this storm will lift northward rather quickly today towards the big bend area of Florida and then get absorbed into the long wave trough and off the east coast by tomorrow morning. 88 After Monday's cold front finally pushes through, a phase up with the current upper low over Texas and the parent trough in the Ohio valley will begin. As this this system is pushed along by an encroaching upper ridge, a high pressure cell will drop in from the central plains on tomorrow night and send a reinforcing cold front into central Alabama further cooling off and drying out the region. With the upper ridge firmly in place, clear skies, relatively cooler temps and decreased dewpoints are expected for the majority of the week.
A cold front will push through tomorrow with heavy rain possible. /issued 304 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016/ Western extent of the upper level high pressure across the southeastern CONUS will get shunted eastward thanks to a respectable August trough axis making its way across the country. Early this afternoon, the trough was situated from the lakes of Manitoba into the Great Basin. A cold front should approach our northern zones by mid-day.
820 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2016 High pressure will remain to the east through the week.
Elevated winds will linger longer at LRD through the late evening as warmer temperatures will allow for longer mixing time. The mid to upper level ridge will persist over the region through the period. But the low level thermal profile should be similar to today such that high temperatures will be near to a degree above on Friday.
729 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2016 An area of low pressure will drift westward along the Gulf Coast over the next few days allowing Bermuda high pressure to become more dominate in the forecast area.
Thinking a few showers and thunderstorms could rotate around the upper low through the night.
At the surface, A weak cold front extends from north central Kansas southwestward into southeast Colorado. Periods of heavy rainfall can also be expected early tonight given the high precipitable water forecast in western and especially central Kansas. As a surface cold front crosses southwest Kansas overnight there will continue to be a chance for thunderstorms through the early morning hours. The chance for ongoing convection will continue across south central and portions of southwest Kansas early Friday as the cold front moves south into Oklahoma and an upper level trough begins to move out into the Central High Plains. As this convection tapers off and the upper trough crosses western Kansas during the day there will be a chance for some clearing skies, especially in north central and west central Kansas.
As this low migrates slowly west, expect showers and tstms to become more widespread, bringing periods of heavy rainfall to the area.
The mosaic radar imagery indicates the upper low spinning over Srn MS/extreme SE LA this evening. The short term progs remain in good agreement with convection initiation a little earlier Friday morning over NE LA as the center of the low slowly nudges slowly W. Have also added locally heavy rainfall wording to the Ern Ncntrl LA parishes Friday as the outer convective bands around the Wrn periphery of the low will develop within a very high PW air mass characteristic of values near/in excess of 2.
Some weakening of this MCS will take place in the morning, before storm potential increases again as the cold front itself moves through the area from the northwest. The more extensive cloud cover will temper the highs somewhat from today, but some heat index readings near 100 degrees are still possible, especially over the eastern CWA.
A weak area of low pressure continues to move slowly westward into southeast Mississippi this afternoon and evening and will continue to track off to the west through Friday. Southerly flow on the eastern side of the low will continue to pump abnormally moist air into the region with precipitable water values over 2. This moisture combined with a weak sfc trof and disturbances rotating around an upper low to our west will continue to produce scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms through tonight with the heaviest rains across portions of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama. Highs on Friday will climb into the low to mid 80s across the west with upper 80s to the east.
Better chances for showers and thunderstorms will come over the weekend as a cold front pushes southward from Missouri towards the Mid-South. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 80s where rain occurs. Highs will be in the 80s with the lows in the lower to mid 70s.
Dry and warm conditions will persist through the weekend as a ridge of high pressure builds across Arizona.
1003 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2016 High pressure increasingly centered to our north and east should begin to exert a little more influence on the local low-level flow pattern as onshore winds slowly open up from the open Atlc.
Otherwise, a cold front will move south across Oklahoma late tonight and through the day tomorrow, shifting surface winds around to the north, but will remain rather light. A cold front now over the central High Plains will continue to move southeast toward the area this evening. As instability wanes overnight, some deintensification should occur although we have kept chances fairly high through the morning and confined the highest chances to the afternoon and evening as instability increases once again. Prior to outflow/cold front and or convective development, southeastern portions of the area should be able to reach Heat Advisory criteria. Cooler weather will arrive behind the front with mid to upper 80s common through early week.
A cold front currently draped across central NE into northwest IA will push southward this evening through tonight, serving as a focus for continued convection as it moves toward the area. A decent short- wave trough and upper jet streak have helped storms become fairly widespread along and just behind the front today to our northwest; however this upper-level support will shift more east than southeast with time, and will likely cause storms to weaken and possibly split into two main regions this evening; one in central KS where the LLJ is stronger and will feed more continuous development; and one in eastern IA to far northeast MO where the upper-level forcing will be a bit closer.
00Z HRRR has some scattered to isolated activity along the northern Valley for a while tonight before it slowly moves into northwestern MN as the trough axis moves east.
One such wave moving through the straights late this afternoon/early afternoon, which has helped lift the warm front north of the cwa, allowing highs to reach into the upper 80s to mid 90s.
We currently have a cold front setting up over the northern plains. Currently we have some ridging aloft keeping all but afternoon or diurnal thunderstorms at bay. This mainly dry spell will cease as the cold front approaches Friday night.
825 PM MDT THU AUG 11 2016 Nrn Co is on the srn end of an upper level trough that is moving across the nrn Rockies. On Friday, the cooler airmass will remain in place with gradually increasing moisture. High temperatures are expected to only be in the lower 80s.
Thunderstorms will likely develop along the front range of CO/WY this afternoon ahead of next weak mid-level trough.
Overall regime should have an ever-so-slight transition of the mid-level low retrograding a bit more west and the Bermuda ridge building in more from the east thru fcst period which should mainly nudge the environment to be less tropical and the more summertime typical diurnally driven.
Will maintain the current advisory through 8 pm as current temperatures will need to fall a few degrees for the HI values to fall below criteria given the current dewpoints ranging from the mid 70s to the lower 80s! May still see a few isolated thunderstorms through early this evening, but greater chance of thunderstorms will wait until later this evening.
The highest risk of severe storms into the evening will fall along and south of a Yankton to Storm Lake line.
747 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2016 High pressure will remain to the east through the week.
However, will see scattered thunderstorms Tomorrow as a cold front moves into the region. /Issued 342 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016/ Big changes in store for the area as a cold front approaches the area tonight/tomorrow. This cold front extends this afternoon from NE through western KS and will bring cooler weather and a focus for showers/thunderstorms through the weekend.
High pressure will build over the forecast area through the weekend. The trough that moved through the forecast area is now tracking east into Colorado and Wyoming. Convection developed earlier over primarily eastern Utah and southwest Wyoming but has dissipated with the movement of the trough and the end of daytime heating. High pressure will build over the area tonight through the weekend, resulting in generally dry conditions, light winds, and a warming trend in temperatures.
Subtropical high pressure is centered off the East Coast, ridging westward over the southeast CONUS. The flow around the highs has a deep, moist, tropical air mass in place locally. This high pressure block noses as far west as Central Kentucky at times, keeping us out of the axis of heaviest precipitation. A northern stream upper level wave will move into the Great Lakes, draping a cold front across the Ohio Valley.
Excessive heat conditions are likely to impact portions of the lower Susquehanna Valley through the upcoming weekend. However, 01Z SPC mesoanalysis still indicating moderate CAPEs across the Lower Susq Valley, where KMDT was reporting an 82F dwpt! Will have to watch for the possibility of locally hvy rainfall amounts from storms as they move into this region btwn 02Z-05Z. Heat advisory across the Lower Susq Valley remains in effect through Sat for aftn heat indices over 100F and abnormally high overnight temps. We extended the heat advy for the Lower Susq Valley through Friday and added an excessive heat watch for the weekend.
Subsidence behind the departing s/w trof, west flow at 850 mb, and the cold front sagging into southern WI all support this trend.
A deep southerly flow will continue over the region providing a steady stream of fresh tropical moisture due to the position of the sub-tropical high and low pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley.
850 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2016 High pressure will remain to the east through the week.
This and dew points the mid and upper 70s should limit any fog and keep it uncomfortably sticky through the night with lows in the lower to mid 70s per 12z MOS looking good. However, any model you choose is putting out high qpf amounts, especially near and south of Interstate 70, as a slowly advancing cold front is eventually expected to stall near the Ohio River late in the weekend.
849 PM MDT THU AUG 11 2016 Weak cold front associated with upper trough axis is moving through our CWA this evening as noted on 850mb analysis. Light showers/sprinkles over mountains will dissipate overnight as trough axis shifts SE.
At 00z, a weak low pressure system was noted along the AL/MS state line but 850 moisture was wrapped a bit tighter around the low and W LA and E TX are a bit drier (at 850) than 24 hours ago.
Scattered showers continue to spiral their way around the low pressure system just to our southwest. Looks like a repeat performance on Friday as the low remains locked in its position, with the best coverage across the south.
Periods of heavy rainfall can also be expected early tonight given the high precipitable water forecast in western and especially central Kansas. As a surface cold front crosses southwest Kansas overnight there will continue to be a chance for thunderstorms through the early morning hours. The chance for ongoing convection will continue across south central and portions of southwest Kansas early Friday as the cold front moves south into Oklahoma and an upper level trough begins to move out into the Central High Plains. As this convection tapers off and the upper trough crosses western Kansas during the day there will be a chance for some clearing skies, especially in north central and west central Kansas.
Clear skies tonight with near normal temperatures as a weak ridge of high pressure builds over the area.
839 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2016 Aviation Showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase on Friday and especially Friday night as low pressure moves into Lower Michigan. There should be enough forcing from a LLJ to have increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms by late Friday afternoon with the main batch of rain expected Friday evening as a cold front sags south.
550 PM MDT THU AUG 11 2016 Water vapor imagery shows an upper low crossing cntrl Canada with the main trough axis across wrn ND into se MT and wrn WY. Latest RAP showing MLCape of 500-1500 J/kg with the highest values near the SD/Neb border. The main trough axis will slide across the area Friday into Friday night, with additional chances for showers and storms.
Synoptic pattern early this afternoon has a Bermuda high and an upper low over eastern Saskatchewan. This and dew points the mid and upper 70s should limit any fog and keep it uncomfortably sticky through the night with lows in the lower to mid 70s per 12z MOS looking good. However, any model you choose is putting out high qpf amounts, especially near and south of Interstate 70, as a slowly advancing cold front is eventually expected to stall near the Ohio River late in the weekend.
More convection should develop after 12/16z especially over Northern Louisiana and Southern Arkansas as an upper trough drifts northward from the Gulf and along the Mississippi River. The approach of the upper trough will likely allow convection to persist past the end of the TAF period at KELD and KMLU.
Cold front extended from northern WI to nw KS with dewpoints south of the front in the mid to upper 70s with temperatures in the 80s and 90s. With the low level jet in place, combined with a short wave arriving from the west, and a cold front approaching from the northwest, this brings the decent forcing to trigger the thunderstorms. The storms will gradually diminish on Friday as the cold front sags southeast across the cwa. Lows tonight will be in the lower 70s with highs on Friday in the lower to mid 80s. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s with lows in the lower to mid 60s.
645 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016 Main forecast concern for the next 24 hours will be the cold front to push through tonight into Fri morning. Current convection is ahead of cold front, which will slowly move into the area late tonight/tomorrow morning.
1132 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016 Storms along the trough axis have all but dissipated. 00Z HRRR has some scattered to isolated activity along the northern Valley for a while tonight before it slowly moves into northwestern MN as the trough axis moves east.
1152 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016 Main forecast concern for the next 24 hours will be the cold front to push through tonight into Fri morning.
Additional instability in the trough of an upper low will generate showers across central SD that may reach as far east as the Missouri river. The sfc and upper lows will exit north on Friday.
Satellite imagery now shows the closed upper low crossing into Manitoba this evening. This low is sending small scattered showers and thunderstorms southeast through Northeast Montana. Templer Previous Discussion - Water vapor imagery and 500 mb height field shows the closed upper low pressure center continuing to lift through southeastern Saskatchewan.
A cold front extends from around Ord down to Lexington late this afternoon.
More significant rain chances begin mainly across the Permian Basin and South Plains on Friday afternoon, as the upper level ridge shifts east and a cold front begins to move into the area.
946 PM MDT THU AUG 11 2016 A broad upper level trough with axis from Western Canada south through MT/WY will maintain a NW flow aloft over the region tonight.
1011 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2016 An area of low pressure will drift westward along the Gulf Coast over the next few days allowing Bermuda high pressure to become more dominate in the forecast area.
Excessive heat conditions are likely to impact portions of the lower Susquehanna Valley through the upcoming weekend. Widespread coverage of showers/storms early this evening across the northern half of Pa, within plume of high PWATs on northern periphery of subtropical ridge. Latest SPC SSEO output continues to support the highest Pops across the north through early evening, then diminishing convection overnight, as blyr cools/stabilizes. Heat advisory across the Lower Susq Valley remains in effect through Sat for aftn heat indices over 100F and abnormally high overnight temps. We extended the heat advy for the Lower Susq Valley through Friday and added an excessive heat watch for the weekend.
Expect that activity to weaken with redevelopment likely during the afternoon as a cold front drops south into the area. Temperatures will be slightly cooler tomorrow with clouds and precipitation in the area, but humidity will remain. Showers and some thunderstorms will then approach from the northwest starting late tonight as a cold front begins to settle into the region.
This area remains within rich plume of tropical moisture where slightly stronger and cooler mid-level flow is encountering broad area of low-level convergence with surface trof. Healthy pops are carried through the night as 700 mb theta-e axis translates slightly eastward ahead of incoming cold front. Cold front currently in western Kansas and eastern Colorado expected to make its move into northwest parts of the forecast area by 12z Friday, sweeping through remaining parts by noon.
920 PM EDT Thu Aug 11 2016 High pressure will remain over the western Atlantic through the weekend.
With dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, heat indices may again approach 100, particularly across the southern half of the FA.
824 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2016 Satellite and surface analysis show an inverted trough sliding through the area from the eastern Florida Straits. Supporting evidence for the trough comes from the lines of showers and thunderstorms currently moving westward near 10 knots over the eastern Straits and the Gulf Waters. The trough mentioned above will pass to the west of the Keys area overnight, then wash out. The Atlantic ridge will become more cohesive resulting in a a stronger pressure gradient across the Keys area Friday through the weekend. An inverted trough will pass through the Keys area overnight. The Atlantic high pressure will strengthen on Friday resulting in gradually increasing wind through the weekend.
This is represented well by the moist adiabatic lapse rates, high freezing level near 17k feet, and high precipitable water value of 2. The low level wind field also shows the movement of the low to the west as winds have turned due west instead of west- northwest in the low levels.
Some drizzle could also develop across the north later tonight as the low clouds expand in that area. Subsidence behind the departing s/w trof, west flow at 850 mb, and the cold front sagging into southern WI all support this trend.
Models continue to show the main upper level trough moving eastward. Patchy fog is possible Friday night as winds become light and variable across the lower valleys.
627 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016 A cold front extends from around Ord down to Lexington late this afternoon.
1049 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2016 An area of low pressure will drift westward along the Gulf Coast over the next few days allowing Bermuda high pressure to become more dominate in the forecast area.
Clear skies for the next 24 hours due to a mid/upper level ridge of high pressure building over the Pacific Northwest.
with high pressure still in control just to the east. and a moist boundary layer will keep lows quite warm in the low to mid 70s once again. Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 94 75 93 / 20 30 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 92 73 92 / 20 20 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 73 93 74 93 / 20 20 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 71 90 71 90 / 20 30 30 20.
By late in the day tomorrow, a cold front will be approaching northern parts of our forecast area, and thunderstorms developing along and ahead of this front may approach the KABI and KSJT terminals during the evening hours. More significant rain chances begin mainly across the Permian Basin and South Plains on Friday afternoon, as the upper level ridge shifts east and a cold front begins to move into the area.
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL BE WORKING AGAINST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.