Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
142 AM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 High pressure early this week. Upper level trough axis has passed to the east, and clouds/precip will gradually be on the decrease this morning. A 500mb ripple will move through late today into tonight, with a weak trough/back door cold front at the surface. Despite some sunshine midday, stuck on the cooler side of guidance for today. Ended up a bit cooler than the previous forecast across the NW where clouds should be decreasing after midnight, and a touch warmer south and east where clouds will be thicker. Models show horizontal flow at the sfc with flurries or light snow over the highest peaks of northeast mountains.
For the remainder of the day, a cold front will approach from the northwest and move through the region this afternoon into the early evening. For tonight through Halloween, dry weather is expected as high pressure builds in. Highs tomorrow will again be on the cooler side in the wake of the cold front, topping out in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Daytime highs on Monday will be several degrees below normal with areas north of I-70 being some 15 to 20 degrees cooler than earlier this weekend with 24 hour temperature changes becoming more moderate across the central and southern areas. Subsidence and cooler air will be advected into the region behind the disturbance resulting in a quiet but chilly Tuesday night.
Have thus adjusted todays highs downward toward the cool Canadian solution, with further reduction over the ridge zones which received accumulating snow.
Not as chilly this morning with the lowest temperatures residing in the northern ranchlands. Tonight our attention turns upstream as an H5 trough begins to slide eastward from the Pacific as well as a weak cold front drops southward into CenTex. This will continue to allow southeasterly fetch, which will continue to increase our cloud cover and gradually increase our precipitation chances, especially as a surface (coastal) trough begins to develop.
High pressure will maintain overall quiet conditions across the forecast area over the next 24 hours. While chilly conditions will again exist overnight, the mercury doesn't look to fall as low as it did this morning, with lows tonight progged to range from the lower 40s west of the Mississippi River to the middle 30s across East Mississippi. Late in the afternoon, a cold front will approach the Delta region from the northwest.
High pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will move slowly east today and be over the Florida Peninsula tonight into Tuesday. The high is then expected to move east into the Atlantic waters by the middle to end of this week.
A cold front associated with a weak weather disturbance will pass through region today bringing cooler temperatures to the state today and light precipitation to parts of central and east-central Nevada later today into tonight.
352 AM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 High pressure is centered the northern Gulf Coast this morning. The high center will drift eastward through today with the surface flow turning more southwest by late this afternoon or early this evening. The high center should move offshore the SE GA/NE FL coasts later on Tuesday.
Although a strong +110 jet core associated with the upper level disturbance will graze much of northern Kansas, precip chances remain unlikely through the period as a much drier air mass spreads southward across the high plains limiting instability. Should see lows down into the 30s(F) for the most part with the lower 40s(F) still possible in south central Kansas. Short range models show the 0C isotherm across all of western Kansas by Monday afternoon as an arctic high continues to spread southward across the high plains. The lower 50s(F) are still possible in south central Kansas.
A cold front is currently working its way south across all TAF sites. Water vapor imagery shows a cutoff closed low moving into the central CA coast amidst weak ridging over the western CONUS. A cold front associated with a upper low over east-central Canada is quickly advancing south through the northern and central plains. The thermal profile during this time is expected to be cold enough for snow, with a quick switchover to rain by mid morning as the high slides east along with the baroclinic zone/better forcing.
323 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Light winds, clear skies, and dry air allowed temperatures to fall into the lower 30s across portions of west TN during the late evening hours, but temperatures have stabilized and have even warmed a few degrees in some areas. Temperatures will be warmer across the board despite a cold front moving into the CWA during the day. Winds will shift from the northwest as the front passes but the reinforcing cooler and drier air will be delayed until this evening and overnight.
A pair of systems will bring increasing clouds and cooler temperatures to start the week. A stronger system will bring windy and cooler conditions by the weekend along with mountain snow and chances for valley rain.
310 AM MDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southwest Ontario, with high pressure centered over western MT. Upper level analysis shows low pressure also over far southwest Ontario, with strong upper jet stretching from the Northern Rockies to the northern MS river valley. Highs will only be in the 30s, with some 20s across the higher Black Hills. Temps will drop quickly in the evening as high pressure moves over and eventually southeast of the area. Some milder air will return behind exiting high pressure, as west-southwest winds help push highs into the 40s and lower 50s.
'Back door' dry cold front passed through Jerome and Twin Falls around midnight MDT and wind shifted to east 20 to 30 mph.
Synoptic Setup: A ridge runs up north from southern California and then steers off-shore along the British Columbian coast. A cold core trough drops southern from Nunavut into the Mississippi Valley. The high Plains of the US and Canada including northeast Montana lie in between these two feature on the cooler side of northwest to northern flow pattern.
601 AM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 High pressure early this week. Upper level trough axis has passed to the east, and clouds/precip will gradually be on the decrease this morning. A 500mb ripple will move through late today into tonight, with a weak trough/back door cold front at the surface. Despite some sunshine midday, stuck on the cooler side of guidance for today. Ended up a bit cooler than the previous forecast across the NW where clouds should be decreasing after midnight, and a touch warmer south and east where clouds will be thicker.
cooler temperatures. Has been a really intense overnight with waves of strong winds across the area as region is in a dry slot with nearly record low pressure moving across the North Country straight through the Adirondacks. Low pressure will continue to lift northward, with precipitation ending from South to North across the area. Temperatures will cool enough that some of the rain could mix with snow in the highest elevations both Monday and Tuesday night.
This should help temperatures warm into the low to mid 70s, about ten degrees warmer than yesterday. A broad mid level trough, most pronounced over the upper MS valley, will help push another cold front into the area tonight.
08Z/3 am surface map shows a cold front pushing se toward the IL river with sw winds ahead of the front veering WNW behind it.
High pressure will build in from the west, with low level northerly flow persisting but gradually decreasing across the area. Inverted trough develops over the western Atlantic Fri-Sun with deepening moisture levels. With high pressure ridge remaining to the N/NW through the week, weak gradient will support onshore NE/E winds below 15 knots. Isolated marine showers remain Wed night over southern waters, then all waters by the end of the week as inverted trough begins to take shape over/east of the waters.
A secondary short wave trough will rotate around the upper level low and move across the region late this morning and through the afternoon. Plan to keep the precipitation chances in the 20 to 40 percent range with the highest values across northern Taylor County. Another weak short wave trough will move across the region, the low level cyclonic flow will still be in place as will the low level lapse rates, although these will not be as strong or as deep as during the day. Low level ridging will be over the area Tuesday and while this will quickly move off to the east Tuesday night, the precipitation ahead of the next rapidly approaching system should remain to the northwest of the area.
Weak high pressure builds in today with much warmer temperatures and winds shifting to the south and southwest. A rapid warmup from below freezing to the 50s to lower 60s.
Currently at the surface, a deep area of low pressure is lifting north out of the Mid-Atlantic coast, trailing a cold front that is now well east of Florida, while broad high pressure fills into the central Gulf of Mexico behind this front. With the cool and dry air already in place behind the cold front, clear skies are persisting early this morning, allowing for strong radiational cooling as the winds subside.
We will likely see some spotty areas outside of the warning touch around the freezing mark, but it should not be widespread enough to include in the warning at this time. This trend should continue through the afternoon and skies should eventually clear as the upper trough swings across the Appalachians. By later tonight into early Monday morning skies should have cleared and winds should have diminished enough for the lows to drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s across the north. Not much warming has taken place today and there could be some areas on the fringes of the Warning that may reach into the lower 30s tonight. model sfc projections indicate a weakening cold front attempting to enter north Georgia on Tuesday.
Cooler and very windy weather will move into our region this afternoon.
This cold front will be roughly bisecting the CWA by 12Z and should clear the southeast zones by 15Z. The early day FROPA will mean a much cooler day than yesterday with highs mostly in the 50s today. A cool night will follow as surface ridging settles over northwest Texas. Attention will then turn to a compact upper low currently moving into southern California. This upper low is progged to open up and weaken as it translates steadily eastward through tonight, approaching West Texas by early Tuesday. After a couple of cool days to kick off the week, much warmer weather will follow for the remainder of the week and right on into the weekend.
428 AM MDT Mon Oct 30 2017 A band of snow and light freezing drizzle tracked across southeast WY and the western NE Panhandle early this morning, and has pushed south of the WY-CO border per the latest KCYS radar loop.
The anomalous low-level cold pool will advect southward through the day allowing us to mix into warmer temperatures than yesterday afternoon.
336 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Colder air behind a cold front today, along with windy conditions. There may also be isolated showers today just to our north where cooler temps aloft exist, but don't believe they would make it this far south. Otherwise, quite a bit of cloud cover across the region this morning, and while that may thin a bit this afternoon, it will likely take until this evening to begin clearing out altogether as high pressure moves in. Temps remain on the chilly side with highs only in the lower 40s Tuesday, then dropping into the lower 30s Tuesday night.
112 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Water vapor imagery showing upper trough slowly sliding southeast over northern Minnesota. Meanwhile, farther northwest a few widely scattered/isolated showers have developed under the cooler air aloft. The upper trough is forecast to drop south and east into Monday and this should draw at least some small PoPs into the north by morning.
Expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from Tucson eastward tonight followed by cooler temperatures Tuesday.
A cold front has now made it into the I40 corridor early this morning. Rain chances will increase over our southern zones during this time, with the highest chances expected over extreme SE OK. Some locations over northern OK could struggle to get into the low 40s if more precip/saturation occurs than expected. Tended to stay several degrees warmer than guidance as lee low develops overnight and the resulting pressure gradient keeping winds elevated. Temperatures will fall by Fri for most locations across north of I40 as the cold front finally moves southward but it will remain very shallow.
325 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017 An upper level trough will continue to plunge southward into the Northern Plains for today, bringing much cooler air and windy conditions to the region. Tuesday will be another cold day, though some warming will be realized over south central SD as winds transition to southwesterly due to surface ridging sliding to the east.
251 AM PDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Cooler weather is forecast this week under weak low pressure aloft. A low pressure trough will strengthen this weekend, bringing a chance of showers and breezy conditions. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO A compact low pressure system is moving directly overhead of Southern California this morning, shown nicely in satellite with the higher comma cloud. The marine layer has responded by deepening up to about 3500 feet so far, and the low clouds have thickened and moved inland to fill the coastal basin. The upper low moves out today, but right behind it is another weak trough that will actually deepen our marine layer and extend the low clouds, with chances of drizzle again.
Cold front currently near Interstate 44 will continue southeastward with gusty northerly winds in its wake. /Issued 318 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017/ Today's cold front has moved into far northwestern parts of the forecast area in the past hour or so, with gusty northerly winds being the immediate impact following its passage. Temperatures will be much cooler both today and especially tomorrow on the north side of the front, which will stall across Texas and eventually move slightly northward as a warm front. An approaching upper level trough will bring increasing rain chances late Tuesday and Tuesday night, especially to parts of southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Model trends continue to point toward the highest rainfall totals being just south and east of the forecast area, with perhaps far southeast Oklahoma being on the northern fringes of the best rain.
Another Cold Front and Turning Cooler. Another cold front will push across West Central Texas this afternoon and tonight. This front will bring gusty winds from the north, along with cooler temperatures.
The surface cold front tied to this upper wave reached I-40 in the TX Panhandle at 08z. The 700mb front will become warm frontogenetic with increasing deformation/convergence across southeastern CO tonight. The lower troposphere will be very dry, so a lot of sublimation will be occurring, which will also aid in keeping the boundary layer cool. The WRF models appear most realistic in capturing this surface temperature cool anomaly, so have adjusted the SuperBlend guidance downward with more influence of the cooler NCEP WRF-ARW and WRF-NMM models.
As a weak shore-wave trough approaches from the north, cannot rule out light coastal drizzle and patchy fog through the early morning.
High pressure will be in control of the area for today with a dry cold front pushing through overnight into Tuesday morning.
On Monday, a passing low will bring cooler temperatures and breezier winds to the area.
Added a few more tenths of an inch above 1500 feet to going snow totals there, with some areas see an inch or a little more at the highest peaks. Lows will drop into the lower 30s. By Tuesday the region will be between the cool cyclonic flow to our north and high pressure off to our SW. From Central PA down into the Lower Susq Valley, it will be dry with partly to mostly sunny skies and high temps in the low to mid 50s. Continued fair weather Tuesday night as high pressure moves across PA.
An upper level trough moving into the Great Lakes is forcing a cold front south across the Plains and currently extends from northeastern New Mexico to the Texas Panhandle to Central Oklahoma while a compact upper level low is moving onshore into southern California. Temperatures are starting off much warmer early this morning than yesterday morning. Expect the front to move into the Edwards Plateau and northern Hill Country this evening, cross the Highway 90 and I-35 Escarpment areas late evening into the overnight hours, then move into Southern Texas early Tuesday morning where it eventually stalls. In the wake of the frontal passage, isentropic lift develops with a warm advection pattern due to moist southerly flow above the frontal surface while the compact upper level low approaches Western Texas.
Isolated areas may see temps hold in the mid 30s or even approach freezing, but more likely freezing temps will be over the Plateau with the freeze warning. After a cold and clear overnight, warmer temperatures and mostly sunny skies will prevail for your Monday. Along with the warmer temps, the sw low level flow will carry a few gusts.
An approaching cold front will arrive early Tuesday morning and potentially result in MVFR CIGs just before and during its passage. High temperatures tomorrow will increase back to near or slightly above normal in the upper 70s and lower 80s as flow aloft becomes more southwesterly ahead of a weak trough that move south and east into the Midwest tomorrow.
A cold front will move southwest out of Wyoming and across most of Utah today.
Forcing will continue to increase over the next several hours as the rather narrow theta-e ridge pushes east into the Lower Peninsula. Strongest cold advection will get underway after 00z with 850mb temps progged to fall from around -3C to -7C by Tuesday morning, the 0C line at 925mb sweeping through the area 9-12z with the passage of the next embedded upper trough.
Satellite imagery shows the upper level low which gave some impressive sunsets now moving quickly east across Southern California and the last of the cloud shield is exiting the area from the northwest. The next weather feature to affect the forecast area is noted over Washington and Oregon as a developing trough of low pressure. At this time this trough looks to be lacking any significant moisture however even the latest GFS model does show some convective potential over the Sierra Tuesday afternoon along the favored northeast side of the low.
632 AM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 A cool and dry high pressure system will build into the region through Tuesday.
655 AM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Strong low pressure moves north from Upstate New York into Quebec Canada today. Meanwhile, high pressure builds across the southeastern states through Tuesday.
331 AM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 A cool and dry high pressure system will build into the region through Tuesday.
238 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Strong upper level trough over the western Great Lakes is driving a cold front southward through the Panhandles early this morning. Another weaker upper level low was moving on shore in Southern California. Clouds should increase and thicken through the day given the upslope flow behind the cold front. The Southern California upper low is expected to open up as it moves into more confluent flow over the Panhandles tonight. The Southern California upper level trough will mainly take most of the dynamics further south and out of our area.
325 AM MDT Mon Oct 30 2017 A clipper type system and asct cold front have initiated a widespread area of light snowfall east of the divide. Accumulations have been rather scant considering the only dynamics to speak of have been sfc convergence with the cold front, low level upslope flow without a higher deck of clouds to seed the lower upslope clouds, and wind speed convergence between Riverton and Lander. High temperatures today behind the cold front, in spite of ample sunshine, should 30 degrees colder around BYG, 20 degrees colder in LND/RIW and 15 degrees colder west of the divide.
Aloft: A broad trof was over the E 2/3 of the CONUS and this will remain the case thru tonight. Surface: The cold front that moved thru yesterday was well S and E of the CWA. This high will slide SE into MT/WY today. Should see quite a bit of diurnal stratocu develop with the H8 thermal trof overhead. The highest gusts will occur forenoon.
Accumulating snow is about finished, but areas of freezing drizzle may continue to hamper road clearance efforts. Have thus adjusted todays highs downward toward the cool Canadian solution, with further reduction over the ridge zones which received accumulating snow.
and Tuesday Precipitation trends and type the primary focus for the start of the new work week as an upper low drops into the northern Great Lakes region. At 3 AM, area radars and surface analysis show a couple bands of precipitation with a series of reinforcing cold fronts early this morning. As the low pressure system departs eastward, a ridge of high pressure builds into the area to end any lingering snow showers across the north.
224 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017 South winds ahead of a cold front across eastern Oklahoma bringing much warmer conditions to the ArkLaTex this morning with temperaturescurrently in the lower 50s across much of the region. Temperatures should remain fairly mild with lows tonight falling into the low to mid 40s and highs on Tuesday in the 60s.
305 AM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 High pressure early this week. Upper level trough axis has passed to the east, and clouds/precip will gradually be on the decrease this morning. A 500mb ripple will move through late today into tonight, with a weak trough/back door cold front at the surface. Despite some sunshine midday, stuck on the cooler side of guidance for today. Ended up a bit cooler than the previous forecast across the NW where clouds should be decreasing after midnight, and a touch warmer south and east where clouds will be thicker.
1149 PM MDT Sun Oct 29 2017 06Z TAF CYCLE A strong cold front from near KTAD-KGUY at 05Z will push rapidly swd thru the ern plains and to the east slopes of the central mt chain by 15Z. Precipitation to become more widespread aft 31/00Z as a weak upper low crosses srn NM and northwest flow brings a disturbance over nrn NM. A strong cold front will move southwest through eastern New Mexico Monday then into the Rio Grande Valley Monday night.
318 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Today's cold front has moved into far northwestern parts of the forecast area in the past hour or so, with gusty northerly winds being the immediate impact following its passage. Temperatures will be much cooler both today and especially tomorrow on the north side of the front, which will stall across Texas and eventually move slightly northward as a warm front. An approaching upper level trough will bring increasing rain chances late Tuesday and Tuesday night, especially to parts of southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Model trends continue to point toward the highest rainfall totals being just south and east of the forecast area, with perhaps far southeast Oklahoma being on the northern fringes of the best rain.
246 AM PDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Temperatures will trend cooler through Tuesday as a dry cold front passes through the region. After yesterday's 80 degree day around Reno-Sparks, the passage of a cold front from the north combined with a thicker swath of cirrus cloud coverage will lead to about 10 degrees of cooling today.
Precip coverage looks greatest up around Lake Superior, where RH through the depth of troposphere will be a bit higher and mid-level temps a bit cooler. Model agreement is pretty good through the week, and then solutions diverge over the weekend with respect to the evolution of an amplified West Coast trough into the Plains. In the meantime, zonal flow prevails overall with weak northern stream troughing sagging into the north central CONUS. Therefore expect a continued active pattern with the continuance of below normal temperatures until except possibly the weekend when southwest flow develops ahead of the eastward advancing western CONUS trough.