Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Here again, the convection allowing models are still indicating the highest probability of stronger storms across northern Inyo, Esmeralda and central Nevada. This could be the down day as global models and NBM PoPs showing best chances across Mohave County with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible over the higher terrain of southern Nevada and southeast California.
342 AM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 Upper ridging will be the dominant feature today and Tuesday. South to southeast winds will increase on Tuesday ahead of low pressure along the Rockies. Models have not wavered in their depiction of a persistent high pressure ridge remaining overhead through the work week.
There appears to be a weak short wave trough in north Ga moving toward the Upstate SC in broad but amplified upper trough from the northeast to the Midwest. This front is expected to move south to near the northern Midlands late today as upper trough shifts southeast. Continued moisture flux into the area as 850mb trough sets up from the Carolina Mountains southwest to north Gulf coast. Temperatures should be a little cooler than last few days with considerable clouds and showers. Guidance indicates upper disturbance will cut off into a closed upper low over the Lower Miss/Tenn Valley area, maintaining a SW upper flow for our forecast area (FA) with embedded disturbances moving through.
205 AM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 A weak cold front stalls near the Virginia - North Carolina border tonight into Monday. An upper level trough lingers over the region through midweek.
150 AM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 The area will remain between Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough through late week.
235 AM MDT Mon Jul 19 2021 Current surface map shows weak trof across eastern Wyoming. Upper level high remains anchored over the central Rockies through much of the week while the amplitude of north side ridging decreases for the last half of the week. With less amplitude in ridging, pattern will become a bit more active over the last half the week with daily thunderstorm chances.
233 AM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 A mid/upper ridge was situated across the Central Great Basin area with northerly mid/upper flow extending downstream across the Central and Northern Plains states. Normal high temperatures for late July are in the low to mid 90s while normal lows are in the upper 60s to around 70. The persistent mid/upper ridge over the Central Great Basin area is progged to build slightly eastward allowing increasing heights/thickness and supporting rising temperatures as we move through the week and into the weekend.
Otherwise, today is expected to be cooler and mostly dry across much of the area, with highs running below normal for this time of year (low-80s). Diurnally driven scattered showers and maybe a thunderstorm are possible across southern Missouri this afternoon and early evening as a weak 500 mb trough transverses the area.
201 AM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 High pressure centered near Wisconsin will provide mainly dry weather today, although there will be a few showers possible inland from the lakes and across the Saint Lawrence Valley. Unsettled weather will return later Tuesday and Tuesday night with a cold frontal passage. High pressure will ridge towards our region, which will keep the area mainly rain-free through this morning. There will be some lingering clouds from a departing mid-level trough east of Lake Ontario, and possibly a widely scattered shower.
Guidance showing ridge axis nosing southwest over a good portion of the region during this time. Worse conditions probable south of the interstate, where these locales will be closest to the ridge axis. The forecast period begins tonight with with a ridge over the plains. Guidance has been trending slightly warmer for overnight lows so I rose the temperatures slightly into the mid to upper 60s for tonight. Monday, looks to bring drier conditions as the ridge over the western CONUS slowly begins moving to the east. Starting Tuesday, a large area of high pressure overtakes the majority of the Tri-State area through the end of the work week. The area of high pressure will produce widespread subsidence over the entire area which will limit rainfall chances.
1039 PM MDT Sun Jul 18 2021 The latest water vapor and 500-mb height analysis places high pressure over UT/CO with the ridge axis extending northeast into southern Saskatchewan. The upper ridge and weak subsidence will persist through Tuesday, which, along with relatively more stable midlevel lapse rates, will suppress thunderstorm activity.
The influx of moisture will also bring increased chances of thunder later this afternoon in the Sierra Nevada especially near Yosemite National park and is being funneled northward on the western periphery of a broad ridge centered over the Four Corners region. The high temperature forecast will be tricky today due to the increase in clouds from the incoming upper and mid level moisture. A southwest flow over the region will then develop late Monday into Tuesday as troughing to the north over the western Canada coast slowly transitions southward and the ridging to the east allows the synoptic winds aloft to stream into the region from the southwest.
520 AM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 A mid and upper level trough extending from Southern Quebec Canada into Eastern PA will create a northwesterly flow of dry but much warmer air today and Tuesday. This trough is forecast to linger over the area for much of the week, brining a much drier week and less humidity then previous weeks. Upper level troughing over Pa, combined with diurnal heating, should result in increasing cumulus by this afternoon, along with the chance of a shower or thunderstorm in spots, mainly over the central and northern counties. Mixing down model 850mb temps of 15-16C translates to expected highs ranging from the upper 70s over the northern mountains, to the mid to upper 80s across the Lower Susq Valley.
HREF again shows potential of heavy rain over the higher terrain of the county today. Elsewhere, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will again develop over the higher terrain around noon before drifting into the valleys later in the afternoon through the evening.
/issued 415 AM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021/ Another day with scattered showers and thunderstorms, courtesy of nearly stationary upper trof axis. The upper trof will sag slightly south during the day, with the elevated warm conveyor belt of rich theta-e air extending from central MS into northern AL.
310 AM MDT Mon Jul 19 2021 A very hot & dry day is expected across all of southeast Wyo & the western Neb Panhandle today with the 596-598 dam 500 mb ridge axis directly overhead. This is a bit of a dirty ridge w/ some pockets of moisture overhead, so really cannot entirely rule out a couple of showers but the chances for anything measurable are quite low with very dry sub-cloud layers. Monsoonal flow is expected to become more established Tuesday with the ridge axis flattening & shifting eastward slightly. Scattered / numerous showers & storms will be likely, mainly for those areas along/west of the Laramie Range with ridging likely to remain in control just to the east.
510 AM PDT Mon Jul 19 2021 Monsoon flow around high pressure over the Intermountain West this week will bring warm days, mild nights and scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the mountains each day.
637 AM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 (Today and tonight) A weak cold front will slowly move south across the region today.
Upper high is over the Rockies with upper low moving into British Columbia and a trough extending south along the West Coast. A weak low pressure wave embedded within this flow is tracking across SoCal. The upper trough along the coast has trended deeper and farther east over the past few model runs. Upper trough will remain off the coast and transition a bit east and gradually flatten through the week. The proximity of the trough will keep some afternoon gusty winds through the Delta with onshore flow and also over ridges and up mountain valleys with enhanced gradient through the week.
An upstream trough will keep temperatures mild for the next few days before ridging returns and increases temperatures later in the week. An upstream trough will keep temperatures mild for the next few days before ridging returns and increases temperatures later in the week. Otherwise, the upstream trough over the Gulf of Alaska will keep temperatures mild until the intermountain west-high pressure system shifts back over the area. This will rebound high temperatures later in the week and aid in warmer inland valley heat. Otherwise, warm, sunny, and dry conditions typical of mid- summer will occur across interior portions of northwest California during the next seven days, while periods of stratus accompanied by cooler and more humid conditions occur along the coast.
An upper low is present this AM centered over NY with a large associated trough over the E half of Conus. This low is expected to move to the NE over the short term and open up/weaken. At the same time, the SRN part of the upper trough gets cut off creating a low over the SE US tonight into early Tuesday. At the surface, any remnants of ridging are gone as a somewhat stationary front sags SWD into N AL with ridging building over the Central Plains and OH Valley behind it.
527 AM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 A mid and upper level trough extending from Southern Quebec Canada into Eastern PA will create a northwesterly flow of dry but much warmer air today and Tuesday. This trough is forecast to linger over the area for much of the week, bringing a much drier week and less humidity then previous weeks. Upper level troughing over Pa, combined with diurnal heating, should result in increasing cumulus by this afternoon, along with the chance of a shower or thunderstorm in spots, mainly over the central and northern counties. Mixing down model 850mb temps of 15-16C translates to expected highs ranging from the upper 70s over the northern mountains, to the mid to upper 80s across the Lower Susq Valley.
Temperatures will likely reach the low 90s across much of western and central Minnesota, while remaining a few degrees cooler across south-central Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin where temperatures are colder aloft near the high pressure center.
The weather pattern will remain favorable for daily showers and thunderstorms as high pressure aloft becomes established over the Four Corners region. The general flow pattern will be favorable for daily showers and thunderstorms this week as high pressure aloft remains centered over or near the Four Corners.
Monsoonal moisture continues to work its way northward around the persistent ridge of high pressure, and has already begun to spread mid-level moisture in the form of cloud cover across north-central Idaho this morning. The lower levels of the atmosphere will continue to moisten on Tuesday.
415 AM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 Another day with scattered showers and thunderstorms, courtesy of nearly stationary upper trof axis. The upper trof will sag slightly south during the day, with the elevated warm conveyor belt of rich theta-e air extending from central MS into northern AL.
621 AM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 Upper ridging will be the dominant feature today and Tuesday. South to southeast winds will increase on Tuesday ahead of low pressure along the Rockies. Models have not wavered in their depiction of a persistent high pressure ridge remaining overhead through the work week.
533 AM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 High pressure will bring dry and warm weather to central and southeast IL for the next several days. 2 am surface analysis indicated little change from 24 hours ago, as 1023 mb high pressure stretched from WI to northern IA. South of the ridge, persistent albeit light northeast low level flow prevailed locally. Aloft, the 500 mb trof axis that has affected the region the past few days is finally shifting south into southern IL. Northwest upper level flow will shuttle weak disturbances through the lower Great Lakes, keeping precip chances to our northeast. This will nudge dewpoints up into the lower 70s, and with highs around 90F Thu/Fri, peak afternoon heat indices in the mid 90s to around 100F are possible.
This compression is due to that high pressure centered over the Four Corners region that strengthened into CA this past weekend. To our northwest, there's been a somewhat stationary upper level low spinning offshore from Canada. That means the marine layer won't be as compressed and can gradually deepen as the high weakens.
536 AM MDT Mon Jul 19 2021 Current surface map shows weak trof across eastern Wyoming. Upper level high remains anchored over the central Rockies through much of the week while the amplitude of north side ridging decreases for the last half of the week. With less amplitude in ridging, pattern will become a bit more active over the last half the week with daily thunderstorm chances.
Upper level trof will continue to sink south into the Tennessee Valley today into tonight. Low pressure is analyzed near Memphis early this morning, with a weak boundary stretching east across Tennessee. With lift from the upper trof, weak low-level convergence, and abundant moisture, showers and storms are likely today across TN. By Tuesday, large scale pattern across the country will feature an amplified upper level ridge over the Intermountain West while broad troughing impacts the eastern CONUS. This should help to keep dewpoints from being oppressive (+70 degrees) like they can be this time of year, while the general proximity of the high pressure will also promote subsidence aloft in our region to limit any rain/storm chances.
626 AM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 An area of high pressure remains centered over the region this morning. This high is expected to sink very slowly south through tonight while continuing to provide the area with mostly clear skies and seasonable temperatures. A weak front over southern Canada this morning will work south as the high retreats and may make into to the northern sections of Wisconsin by late tonight. A weak short wave trough topping the western Conus ridge may slide southeast across the Great Lakes, interact with the front and cause some widely scattered showers and storms to develop across mainly the eastern sections of the area Tuesday afternoon. There looks to be the potential for short waves to top the ridge and move across the Midwest just about every day.
711 AM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 Aviation - Fairly Quiet Pattern This Week - Stormy Weekend Possible - Fairly Quiet Pattern This Week Synoptic pattern shows Western CONUS upper high with downstream trough axis across the Northeast prevailing this week.
The period will start with a decaying mid/upper level trough extending from east TX to the central Appalachians, where it merges with a more significant trough over the northeast CONUS.
609 AM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 Fairly mundane forecast over the next several days with upper level ridging off to our west dominating the pattern. Temperatures at 850 mb rise by a degree or two each day and thus expect afternoon highs to be about 2-4 degrees warmer than yesterday and similarly for Tuesday.
An upstream trough will keep temperatures mild for the next few days before ridging returns and increases temperatures later in the week. Otherwise, the upstream trough over the Gulf of Alaska will keep temperatures mild until the intermountain west-high pressure system shifts back over the area. This will rebound high temperatures later in the week and aid in warmer inland valley heat. Otherwise, warm, sunny, and dry conditions typical of mid- summer will occur across interior portions of northwest California during the next seven days, while periods of stratus accompanied by cooler and more humid conditions occur along the coast.
805 AM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 Mid level ridge over most of the Gulf of Mexico eases southward today as a trough drops into the Deep South. At the surface broad high pressure extends across the state. High pressure with a relaxed gradient stretches across the waters for the next few days.
A cold front is moving into north Louisiana with an associated line of storms. /issued 654 AM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021/ 12Z TAFS An upper level trof will dig into the area through the day resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning becoming more numerous through the afternoon and evening before abating somewhat late tonight.
A front is expected to move south to near the northern Midlands late today as upper trough shifts southeast. Continued moisture flux into the area as 850mb trough sets up from the Carolina Mountains southwest to north Gulf coast. Temperatures should be a little cooler than last few days with considerable clouds and showers. Guidance indicates upper disturbance will cut off into a closed upper low over the Lower Miss/Tenn Valley area, maintaining a SW upper flow for our forecast area (FA) with embedded disturbances moving through.
Hi-res guidance has thunderstorms initiating around 12 pm and 1 pm along the high terrain. High pressures is expected continue to remain in place over the Four Corners region through the forecast period, keeping monsoonal moisture in place over much of northern Arizona.
1023 AM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 High pressure will offer dry conditions through the middle of the week.
645 AM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 A weak, nearly stationary cold front gradually drifts southeast today allowing for showers and storms in southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina. With the cloud cover and convection, expect much cooler than average highs today in SE VA/NE NC with temps in the upper 70s to around 80F. Another cold front moves in from the north Wed with again only a slight chance of a few isolated showers/storm. Drier Thurs with high pressure settling in. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s Tues night and in the mid 60s NW to the lower 70s SE Wed and Thurs night. Lows will range from the mid to upper 60s NW to the lower 70s SE Fri-Sun nights. then 10-15 kt Wed ahead of the next cold front pressing SE into the region (Wed night into Thu).
629 AM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 An upper-level trough, possibly aiding a few early morning showers in southeastern MO, will continue to progress slowly southward today over the Central Plains and Mid-Mississippi River Valley. Drier conditions are anticipated by Tuesday as large- scale subsidence continues with an upper-level ridge over the Rocky Mountains becoming increasingly positively tilted into the Midwest. This evolution will also force the low-level anticyclone that is maintaining easterly to northeasterly flow across the region further southward near the CWA by Tuesday. However, temps will be a couple of degrees warmer on Tuesday with slightly greater solar insolation forecast.
A ridge axis extending from the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic remains just to our north. A ridge axis to our north will maintain gentle to moderate breezes across the area for this afternoon through Tuesday. Thereafter, ridge will retreat eastward with breezes slackening Tuesday afternoon.
654 AM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 12Z TAFS An upper level trof will dig into the area through the day resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning becoming more numerous through the afternoon and evening before abating somewhat late tonight.
A mid/upper ridge was situated across the Central Great Basin area with northerly mid/upper flow extending downstream across the Central and Northern Plains states. Normal high temperatures for late July are in the low to mid 90s while normal lows are in the upper 60s to around 70. The persistent mid/upper ridge over the Central Great Basin area is progged to build slightly eastward allowing increasing heights/thickness and supporting rising temperatures as we move through the week and into the weekend. High pressure building in from the northeast will support fairly quiet weather for at least the next 24 hours.
Monsoonal moisture continues to work its way northward around the persistent ridge of high pressure, and has already begun to spread mid level moisture in the form of cloud cover across north central Idaho this morning. The lower levels of the atmosphere will continue to moisten on Tuesday.
558 AM MDT Mon Jul 19 2021 A very hot & dry day is expected across all of southeast Wyo & the western Neb Panhandle today with the 596-598 dam 500 mb ridge axis directly overhead. This is a bit of a dirty ridge w/ some pockets of moisture overhead, so really cannot entirely rule out a couple of showers but the chances for anything measurable are quite low with very dry sub-cloud layers. Monsoonal flow is expected to become more established Tuesday with the ridge axis flattening & shifting eastward slightly. Scattered / numerous showers & storms will be likely, mainly for those areas along/west of the Laramie Range with ridging likely to remain in control just to the east.
As of 08Z Monday morning, the persistent midlevel ridge axis continues to reside across the Rockies with northerly flow across eastern KS. Midlevel water vapor reveals an elongated trough axis from the northeast US through eastern KS. At the surface, a broad ridge axis resides from western KS through the western Great Lakes. Otherwise, the elongated midlevel trough axis will progress south and southeast through the afternoon. Beyond today, the pattern turns warm and dry as the midlevel ridge axis across the Rockies shifts into the central Plains.
543 AM MDT Mon Jul 19 2021 A classic summertime high pressure system over the southern Rockies will continue to dominate the weather pattern through the short-term period.
456 AM MDT Mon Jul 19 2021 A classic summertime high pressure system over the southern Rockies will continue to dominate the weather pattern through the short-term period.
623 AM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 High pressure will offer dry conditions through the middle of the week. A dome of high pressure centered in the upper Midwest will influence the weather across the Ohio Valley. While weak northerly flow is present, dewpoints will be in the lower 60s.
/issued 315 AM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): 500 mb high pressure centered over the Four Corners area and extended towards the BRO CWFA will produce dry weather for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley today and tonight. For Tuesday, closed 500 mb low pressure forming over the southeastern United States, mid-level troughiness becoming more pronounced along the Texas coastline, and a weak cold front easing towards the BRO CWFA from the north, will result in mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms.
A backdoor cold front later this morning will turn winds more easterly and southeasterly, but wind speeds will remain light around 5 to 10 knots. The upper high remains centered over western Colorado with northerly flow aloft for the forecast area. A weak backdoor cold front will bring northeast to easterly surface winds with slightly cooler temperatures as highs will remain in the 80s. By tomorrow, the chance for storms and any sort of precipitation dwindles as the upper high begins to take on a positive tilt and the flow aloft becomes northeasterly.
Although overall support for lift remains meager, upper troughing and less capping aloft will promote a slight uptick in the coverage of isolated showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm or two, during the mid and late afternoon hours. Western CONUS ridging will begin broaden into the Plains, with our region being set up into the back side of a mean trough. Given the northern origins of these systems and the lingering trough keeping flow from the south cut off, precipitation totals will remain rather subdued overall. Areas of fog should continue to dissipate as diurnal mixing ensues, with an area-wide return to VFR likely under high pressure.
Tuesday the thermal low will shift to the east, allowing for a bit cooler temps across northeast montana, however the lower yellowstone valley still looks to be near 100 degrees.