Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
308 PM EDT Sun Sep 26 2021 A broad long wave trough stretches southeast across the eastern United States and northern Florida. Surface observations place the center of a high pressure system over the extreme southeastern United States and northern Florida. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are moving through Florida Bay and the Upper Keys, and a thundery cumulus streamer is reaching downwind from the Lower Keys. The long wave trough will lumber to the east of its current position, then roughly stall out over the extreme western North Atlantic. Upstream over the Plains and Mississippi River Valley, and equally impressive upper level ridge will stall, sending reinforcing shots of short waves down the Appalachians into the long wave trough. At the surface, a continental anticyclone will remain over the southeastern United States, maintaining the northeast breezes and periodic shots of less-tropical air.
A large trough will then develop over the West through the first half of the week, maintaining onshore flow, a deep marine layer, and cooler than average days. Weak Santa Ana conditions are favored after midweek, for much warmer and dry weather.
The models have a ridge over northern CO by this evening with a closed low over north-central AZ. On Monday, the models shift the closed upper low into north-central NM, with the ridge shifting east into Central Plains by late in the day. A cooler and wetter pattern is on the horizon as we shift into a more favorable pattern for fall-like weather.
219 PM MDT Sun Sep 26 2021 Nothing new to mention in the short term with a high pressure system in place. Skies will remain mostly clear until late Monday night when clouds begin to roll into southeast Wyoming from the south with an approaching low pressure system.
A combination of these high winds and low relative humidity values in the lower 20s/upper 30s spells out another day for elevated fire risk.
The only exception will be along the lakeshore, as some cooler air will likely affect the areas near the shoreline after the past couple days of westerly flow. Monday Night Through Sunday Upper level ridging will keep the weather warm and dry for much of the week with temperatures a good 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year.
Expect overnight lows to be in the low to mid 60s.
LW Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 82 59 83 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 81 60 83 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 51 80 58 83 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 79 55 81 57 / 0 0 0 10 0.
One area of clouds associated with a short wave trough will continue leaving the eastern part of our cwa into the early afternoon with sunny skies for the cwa for the rest of the day. Otherwise, a weak surface pressure trough across central sd this morning will make it through the cwa through the afternoon bringing winds to the northwest and remaining under 10 mph. 80s to the lower 90s for highs today still look good. The upper ridge amplifies through the day on Monday, but with limited mixing much of that potential will be lost.
Highs mostly in the 80s but maybe a few upper 70s in southwest MN where a touch of cooler air sneaks in.
1145 AM CDT Sun Sep 26 2021 The broad area of high pressure that brought a rather nice start tot he weekend will move east of the Ozarks today. The southerly flow will also work to bring warmer temperatures and increasing low level moisture into the area.
1227 PM CDT Sun Sep 26 2021 Summary: High pressure will keep temperatures above normal and the rain away.
High and mid level clouds should be on the increase from south to north through the night as a closed low in the desert southwest moves slowly to the northeast. Monday should be slightly cooler with the winds turning to the south to southeast negating some of the downslope heating along with the layer of high and mid level clouds across the region. Highs should be in the lower to mid 90s.
1116 AM CDT Sun Sep 26 2021 One area of clouds associated with a short wave trough will continue leaving the eastern part of our cwa into the early afternoon with sunny skies for the cwa for the rest of the day. Otherwise, a weak surface pressure trough across central sd this morning will make it through the cwa through the afternoon bringing winds to the northwest and remaining under 10 mph. 80s to the lower 90s for highs today still look good. The upper ridge amplifies through the day on Monday, but with limited mixing much of that potential will be lost.
/issued 748 AM EDT Sun Sep 26 2021/ High pressure centered near the Tennessee Valley this morning slips across the central Applicahain Chain by this evening. This high provides light to gentle northeast or east breezes. High pressure moving by north of the waters will result in prevailing northeast or east winds for much of the week.
139 PM EDT Sun Sep 26 2021 High pressure building into the region today will offer dry weather and near seasonable temperatures. Southerly flow will develop on Monday as the high slides off to the east, resulting in warmer temperatures.
1246 PM EDT Sun Sep 26 2021 Dry weather continues through Monday under high pressure, with a warmup tomorrow.
A mid-level trough will continue to make its way into the Southern Plains region and as a result, 850/925 mb flow will veer across the area. This veered flow will bring in additional warmer and drier low- level air. Low temperatures across most of the area will be in the low 60s.
Quiet weather will continue through the short term as the Ohio Valley remains heavily influenced by a broad high pressure set to drift east from the Tennessee Valley this afternoon into the Carolinas on Monday.
Skies will continue to be clear to partly cloudy overnight, and with weak cold air advection turning into light and variable winds, temps will be a bit cooler than this morning and drop into the 40s across most of the area tonight.
This should continue to remain the case today as flat ridging aloft begins to build over the area through tonight, ahead of the closed low over NW old MX that will drift NE across the Desert SW before moving into WCntrl NM Monday. The morning sfc analysis indicates sfc ridging has shifted E of the region over Cntrl MS, with a light SSW bndry lyr flow commencing over the area.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): Pleasant weather continues across Deep South Texas with a ridge of high pressure settling into the Southeast at the surface and the mid level ridge easing slowly into the Gulf of Mexico. Near normal highs in the low 90s are expected today and Monday, with slightly below normal lows tonight due to radiational cooling under clear skies and near normal lows Monday night.
morning fog has burned off leaving VFR conditions with very light and variable winds due to the influence of high pressure centered right around middle TN.
Slightly cooler temperatures will return for late this week into the weekend. High pressure continues to move east and heights over the region are on the rise. The mid level ridge axis will shift overhead later on this evening and the upper level trough will continue to propagate east.
Drier air is expected to advect into the low levels to limit fog formation.
334 PM EDT Sun Sep 26 2021 Dry high pressure will persist through the short term. The upper ridge centered west of the MS River will keep us in a stable northwest flow aloft. There will be a gradual warming trend as the lower level winds turn more west to southwest by Monday. have undercut the low temperatures a degree or so in most areas.
This trough will move into the coastal waters by 12Z Monday and into the middle and upper Texas coast shortly after 18Z. Rest of south Texas will remain dry as region will still be under the influence of a mid level ridge with highs slightly above normal. The ridge will move to the east Monday night. A weak short wave trough will move out of northern Mexico into the Rio Grande plains and Hill Country Monday night. Expect convection will develop over the higher terrain of northern Mexico Monday afternoon.
1237 PM CDT Sun Sep 26 2021 (Today and tonight) Warm and dry again today, with upper ridging over the region. There will be an increase in low level moisture late tonight as southeast to south winds of 5 to 15 mph begin to advect dew points in the low to mid 50s into the region.
A moisture-starved short wave trough coming in from the west may bring a few clouds to the region tonight. Under sunny skies, highs on Monday will be near 80 in the east to the lower 90s in the southwest cwa.
Meanwhile, a weak and moisture starved cold front will move across the region early tonight perhaps accompanied by a couple of showers. Meanwhile, heights aloft slowly rise as a strengthening ridge builds across the Plains.
154 PM EDT Sun Sep 26 2021 High pressure builds in in the wake of a weak frontal passage this morning.
1110 AM MDT Sun Sep 26 2021 An upper level ridge over the Rockies has brought warm and dry conditions this weekend to our CWA. Temperatures will be above average for this time of year, with most places in our region seeing temperatures 10 degrees warmer than normal.
Discussion: First half of the week will be dominated by a high pressure near the surface and mid/upper level ridging.
322 PM EDT Sun Sep 26 2021 Cold front pushes southward late Monday/Monday night. Dry with high pressure all the way through the end of the week and into the weekend. Warm front with 300/305K isentropic lift and a ripple in the upper level pattern will bring low end chances for showers over the far northeastern zones later tonight. High pressure building in over the northern Great Lakes will push the trailing cold front southward into the lower Great Lakes Monday into Monday night. Late in the 3rd period Monday night, the f-gen increases in the lower levels, and have the POPs increase for the southeast zones as it exits the CWA.
355 PM CDT Sun Sep 26 2021 The upper level low across Arizona this afternoon is expected to lift northeast across the 4 corners area and into the plains over the the 48 hours ahead of an approaching trough of low pressure and cold front.
Tonight and Monday: A frontal trough is moving into northwest corner of forecast area late this afternoon, and is expected to move into southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa during the overnight hours. Trough is associated with weak short wave that will move from northern Rockies and across the northern Plains tonight and Monday.
A low amplitude mid level wave and high pressure expanding across the northern Great Lakes will drive a cold front from north to south across the forecast area late Monday.
Clear skies across the east have brought warmer than expected temperatures into the mid to upper 60s; however, clouds and some isolated showers should eventually fill in as axis shifts slowly to the east. Behind a weak cold front on Monday, highs will remain in the 60s to near 70 along the Wisconsin State Line. Pseudo-omega pattern stretching across Canada and the northern half of CONUS will position the forecast area downstream of a building ridge Monday night.
Cirrus associated with an upper low over Arizona was approaching southwest Kansas. 850 mb temps are slightly cooler and have gone with most locations' highs a touch cooler, with all but the most extreme solutions following this idea. Upper forcing remains rather weak as the upper low weakens and its center remains in Colorado.
953 PM EDT Sun Sep 26 2021 Low pressure continues to make its way thru the Western Great Lakes region late this evening. and should eventually come to an end overnight as high pressure begins to build into our region. Meanwhile, a weak and moisture starved cold front will move across the region early tonight perhaps accompanied by a couple of showers. Meanwhile, heights aloft slowly rise as a strengthening ridge builds across the Plains.
818 PM EDT Sun Sep 26 2021 High pressure builds across the region tonight and Monday.
628 PM CDT Sun Sep 26 2021 High pressure will remain east of Arkansas through the period.
528 PM MDT Sun Sep 26 2021 Nothing new to mention in the short term with a high pressure system in place. Skies will remain mostly clear until late Monday night when clouds begin to roll into southeast Wyoming from the south with an approaching low pressure system.
temps are expected to be warmer tonight over the region. have adjusted lows slightly cooler for the normal cool locations and added slightly more passing high clouds across the northern part of the CWA for tonight.
901 PM EDT Sun Sep 26 2021 High pressure moves off to the south tonight.
Temperatures have fallen into the 60s across most of the Midsouth with a few locations in the low 70s.
Afternoon temperatures will remain cooler than average thanks to these two storm systems. This activity will continue into the evening hours as the upper level low creeps its way eastward and the cold core settles overhead. The upper low will drift off to the east Monday with any convection confined to east of Tucson, with the main focus closer to the NM border.
611 PM CDT Sun Sep 26 2021 (This evening through Monday) An upper level low, currently over Arizona, will gradually track east into New Mexico by tomorrow afternoon.
338 PM PDT Sun Sep 26 2021 Rain showers are still on track Monday afternoon and night along with cooler temperatures.
404 PM PDT Sun Sep 26 2021 A slow moving cold front will push across the Inland Northwest on Monday. Precipitation will increase along the cold front Monday afternoon and evening.
750 PM EDT Sun Sep 26 2021 High pressure will build into the area from the west through tonight and will then move offshore on Monday.
/Issued 334 PM EDT Sun Sep 26 2021/ Dry high pressure will persist through the short term. The upper ridge centered west of the MS River will keep us in a stable northwest flow aloft. There will be a gradual warming trend as the lower level winds turn more west to southwest by Monday. have undercut the low temperatures a degree or so in most areas.
Therefore given the warm air aloft and abnormally dry soil moisture, have opted to go closer to the 75th percentile of the NBM for high temps tomorrow, with some locations reaching the lower 90s.
Slightly cooler temperatures will return for late this week into the weekend. Pressure ridge remains over the area. Overnight low temps a few degrees warmer expected so mainly mid to upper 50s.
530 PM EDT Sun Sep 26 2021 Dry weather continues through Monday under high pressure.
A weak upper level trough has shifted east of our area and the Keys are on the northern fringe of the lower level ridge. Winds surged this evening with the arrival of the drier air and the southeast United States high pressure system building across our area. Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to spread southeastwards across our area maintaining moderate northeast to easterly breezes across the Keys. High pressure spreading southeastwards off the southeastern United States coast will maintain moderate northeast to easterly breezes on Keys waters through the overnight period.
Winds calm down overnight, but pick up again Monday afternoon as a cold front approaches the region. In addition to gusty winds, cooler temperatures move in and some light showers are possible over the start of the work week.
/issued 257 PM CDT Sun Sep 26 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): Pleasant weather continues across Deep South Texas with a ridge of high pressure settling into the Southeast at the surface and the mid level ridge easing slowly into the Gulf of Mexico. Near normal highs in the low 90s are expected today and Monday, with slightly below normal lows tonight due to radiational cooling under clear skies and near normal lows Monday night.
730 PM EDT Sun Sep 26 2021 High pressure moves off to the south tonight.
With high pressure still in place over the area, fog formation will likely occur overnight tonight and may be a bit more widespread. Otherwise, expect lows to be a tad warmer only dropping into the mid 50s in most areas. The start of the new work week should continue on a dry and slightly warmer trend, as a more predominate SW flow becomes established.
A cold front will approach the area tonight and move onshore Monday.
A few locations may even get into the low 80s before the day ends where the skies have been mostly sunny. More sunshine tomorrow afternoon will help raise surface temperatures into the 70s and with even a few locations getting into the low 80s by mid afternoon. Initially there is good agreement that ridging will build over the Midwest ahead of a strong system coming in off the Pacific.
822 PM EDT Sun Sep 26 2021 Dry weather continues through Monday under high pressure.
Given the low afternoon dewpoints, the previous shift may wind being 1-2 hours too quick with the onset of fog, but feel their overall forecast should wind up being pretty good. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 83 58 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 81 58 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 52 81 58 83 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 79 55 81 57 / 0 0 0 10 0.
835 PM EDT Sun Sep 26 2021 High pressure is being reinforced from the north this evening, with a few showers/storms in a narrow strip near the coast from Hillsborough county south through Lee county. Drier air then continues to move in, and dry high pressure will dominate through much of the week. High pressure will be in place across the waters through the period with generally light E/NE flow and afternoon sea breezes turning winds onshore near the coast each day.
835 PM MDT Sun Sep 26 2021 Broad upper low will continue to spin across southern Arizona with some mid and high level moisture streaming northward into portions of western and central Colorado. Overnight lows expected to be a bit warmer, especially in the mountains where there is more cloud cover tonight. The models have a ridge over northern CO by this evening with a closed low over north-central AZ. On Monday, the models shift the closed upper low into north-central NM, with the ridge shifting east into Central Plains by late in the day. A cooler and wetter pattern is on the horizon as we shift into a more favorable pattern for fall-like weather.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight, increasing again on Monday afternoon as low pressure affects the region. Unsettled weather looks to continue for much of the coming week, with breezy and cooler conditions, as well as continued chances for showers and thunderstorms each day. An area of low pressure continues to affect the region this afternoon, with one center located east of Flagstaff and a second vort max over southern Arizona. The low over northern Arizona has produced a long-lived and large area of rain that has affected nearly all areas along/south of Interstate 40. Coverage will generally decrease overnight, though hi res guidance keeps a bit higher coverage on the north side of the low across northeast Arizona. Monday - the low moves into New Mexico with moisture lingering over Arizona.
The upper level low across Arizona this afternoon is expected to lift northeast across the 4 corners area and into the Plains over the the 48 hours ahead of an approaching trough of low pressure and cold front.
(Today and tonight) An upper level low will move east into central New Mexico this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms had already developed over the Southwest Mountains earlier tonight as the upper low approached. Temperatures today will be a couple degrees cooler over the Concho Valley southward to Ozona and Sonora, where clouds and storms are possible.
Upper level ridging will begin to build in from the west on Tuesday, furthering our uneventful wx.
The axis of our H5 ridge is expected to traverse the area through the overnight into early Tuesday morning.
405 AM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021 A weak cold front will approach today and slide through the region on Tuesday. Dry weather will then prevail through the rest of the work week as ridging builds into the Ohio Valley. A cold front will push south through the area during the day on Tuesday. Temperatures will be warm in the southwesterly surface flow ahead of the weakening cold front. Model solutions are in fairly good agreement with amplified mid level flow with a deep trof over the northeast and a ridge over the Mississippi Valley.
Highs mostly in the 80s but maybe a few upper 70s in southwest MN where a touch of cooler air sneaks in. The cooler high pressure to the northeast will move out of the area and southerly flow will increase Monday night into Tuesday. Tuesday will be warm and breezy as low pressure develops across northern parts of the Western High Plains. Did raise lows a bit Tuesday night with strong southerly flow through the entire night, so mostly lows in the lower to mid 60s.
Mid-level low pressure center was moving toward the eastern Mogollon Rim this evening, en route to western New Mexico by Monday morning. The dynamical portion of the low has mainly pushed east of our CWA, with any ability to convect now fading as the low center resides in darkness, over a cold and wet boundary layer. Upstream energy then kicks the low well eastward on Tuesday, for drier, warmer and breezy weather. Models differ after Tuesday, with some solutions keeping energy east of Arizona and others dropping low pressure further southwest into our region.
We remain in an unseasonably warm airmass, but highs today will probably end up a few degrees cooler than yesterday. This is mainly due to easterly winds and decreased mixing in the low levels. On Tuesday, a cutoff upper low will start moving northward out of NM into CO, turning winds back to the south/southeast ahead of it.
High pressure will remain in control. High pressure will remain east of Arkansas through the period. Today Through Tuesday Tranquil weather will prevail through much of this period as a large upper cyclone emerges from the Southern Rockies early in the workweek. Ahead of this feature, sharp mid/upper ridging will support a continued warming trend with temps running several degrees above average. , rain and storms) is expected closer to mid- week; however, guidance depicts a plume of deep moisture streaming into southern AR by Tuesday, coincident with modest instability and increasing warm air advection in the lower troposphere.
Even outside of convection, the front will be evident by the marked increase in dewpoints which will climb back into the lower 70s in it's wake. The trof axis will push into east Texas Tuesday where it will linger through the middle of the week before becoming absorbed by a second trof digging out of the pacific northwest.
151 AM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021 High pressure builds across the region tonight and Monday. A cold front is expected to cross the region Tuesday afternoon and evening, bringing a chance for showers and isolated storms.
136 AM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021 High pressure moves off to the south tonight. High pressure will build in for the middle and later parts of the week. Will range lows tonight from the low 50s in the southeast to around 60 degrees in our northwest. Gradient will relax somewhat heading into Monday night as an east-west front approaches from the lower Great Lakes. Temperatures will be above normal with highs in the lower 80s and lows in the lower to mid 60s. The remainder of Tuesday is trending drier with a weak cold front moving through later on in the day. Based on the timing of the cold front, guidance still suggests high temperatures can reach the upper 70s to lower 80s - about 5-10 degrees above climatological normals.
159 AM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021 High pressure builds across the region tonight and Monday. A cold front is expected to cross the region Tuesday afternoon and evening, bringing a chance for showers and isolated storms.
228 AM MDT Mon Sep 27 2021 Upper analysis shows a broad upper ridge over region which will maintain dry and unseasonably warm weather over the forecast area today through Tuesday. On Tuesday, the potential exists for some record warm temperatures with southerly winds increasing ahead of an approaching low pressure system.