Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A LULL SHOULD THEN ENSUE FOR A PERIOD LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS TAKE PLACE DOWNSTREAM OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ROTATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO THRIVE PAST DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW.
156 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF TUCSON.
Saturday an upper low in the desert southwest will move east into the Rockies increasing westerly flow and pushing the dryline farther east so the only PoPs will be in the extreme southeastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos. Some of the stronger mid level westerlies will mix into the higher elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains where a High Wind Watch remains in effect.
THUS THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WEST TO THE MID 80S EAST.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE A FEW STORMS COULD REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER ERN NM OR IN THE FAR W TX PANHANDLE IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE BTW THE DRYLINE, COLD FRONT, AND OUTFLOW. AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING HAS LIFTED BUT LOW CLOUDS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING. SATURATED CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 10 AM MAINLY SOUTH OF INCOMING COLD FRONT. AS IT WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
347 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015 A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN FAIR AND WARM WEATHER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
120 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015 A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN FAIR AND WARM WEATHER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS CAUSE SUPPRESSION AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING BETWEEN THEM. THE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF IS RIDGED ALONG A SE TO NW ORIENTATION. THIS NW RIDGED LOBE IS DIRECTLY OVER SE LA AND COASTAL MS. NORMALLY HIGH PRESSURE IS STRONGEST AND MOST SUPPRESSIVE ALONG ITS RIDGE AXIS AND IS WHERE THE STRONGER INVERSIONS ARE LOCATED ALONG WITH WARMEST TEMPS ETC. THIS WILL BE THE CASE FOR OUR AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME SW PARISHES/COUNTIES WHICH COULD SEE THE LARGEST POP NUMBERS WHERE THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY EXIT CALIFORNIA AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. 925 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS RISING INTO THE LOWER 70S OVER THE WESTERN CWA. WITH NORTHERLY LAKE WIND COMPONENT KEEPING THE LAKESHORE COMMUNITIES TO THE EAST CONSIDERABLY COOLER. SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND A DRY EASTERLY FLOW. OVER KS/NEB WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO ILLINOIS. THE 850MB WARM FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN ACCOMPANIED BY DEEP ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION.
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS NEARLY PASSED THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE THROUGH BY 12Z. DRIER AIR HAS ARRIVED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S IN CONTRAST TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE SOUTHEAST. DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WEAK TONIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH.
A cool and moist air mass remains over much of central Idaho and western Montana due to the influence of a broad, cut-off low now centered over the southern tip of Nevada. This circulation continues to push mid and upper level moisture into Idaho and southwestern Montana while a separate trough system to the north recently cause some rain and snow showers along the Continental Divide and as far west as Kalispell. The cool east wind will get reinforced tonight due to the upper level trough exiting along the Continental Divide tonight. These east winds will keep the atmosphere mixed up enough overnight that the low temperatures in northwest Montana will likely stay in the upper 20s to low 30s.
TODAY HAS BEEN ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
146 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN LOSING ITS EASTWARD MOMENTUM AND WASHING OUT TONIGHT. EXPECTING MINS TO HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHTLY DEEPER DRY LAYER AND H5 TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER TODAY.
AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING HAS LIFTED BUT LOW CLOUDS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING. SATURATED CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 10 AM MAINLY SOUTH OF INCOMING COLD FRONT. AS IT WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS THEN FORECAST ANOTHER WINDOW FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN ABOUT 09Z AND 15Z.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS CAUSING SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY.
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE. WHILE DEEP RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC TO THE WEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS NOW SITUATED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SUNSHINE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN TONIGHT.
351 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND.
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES DIGGING SOUTH AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. THINGS CHANGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE PANHANDLES AS THE DRYLINE PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD.
200 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015 MID/UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS SATURDAY.
DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INTO NE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE LOW PRODUCING LOT OF CLOUD COVER. CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY AND ANY CLEARING AREAS MAY QUICKLY COOL TOWARDS THE FREEZING MARK IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MID 40 IN THE SJV AND DESERT.
LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. AND LOW PRESSURE LEE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OFF THE CONUS.
605 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW AN UPPER LOW AND STRONG SURFACE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE RAIN.
601 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015 A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE STATE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE. LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
320 PM MST SUN DEC 27 2015 NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS MONDAY MORNING.
935 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW AN UPPER LOW AND STRONG SURFACE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE RAIN.
THE NAM DETERMINISTIC DEPICTS 40-50KT 925MB WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WITH LESS THAN DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST 1-KM.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 62 72 52 62 / 50 80 90 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 57 74 54 63 / 20 60 90 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 57 72 53 63 / 20 70 90 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 53 72 52 64 / 20 50 90 40 NC.
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EVER SO SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD FRONT IS THROUGH EAST TEXAS AND PUSHING INTO LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. WITH MUCH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD, BRINGING COOLER READINGS OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY LATER TONIGHT AND MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT, TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY COOL IN AREAS WHERE WINDS REMAIN NORTH TO NORTHEAST. SURFACE MAP AT 23Z SHOWS A WARM FRONT SITUATED JUST EAST OF CKV, WITH IFR CIGS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO THE WARM FRONT, BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z WITH THE MAIN FRONT. ALSO, LOOK FOR LLWS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH ABOVE-SURFACE WINDS INCREASING AS THE UPPER LOW DRAWS CLOSER.
LIGHT WINDS AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE MOJAVE DESERT REGION.
AN INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WARMER ESPECIALLY IN THE SIERRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO A RIDGE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE INTERIOR. BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WEAKER TEMPERATURE INVERSION WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
1007 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015 A COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. A NEW COLD FRONT OCCLUDES THIS FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT.
READINGS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST, AND HRRR SHOWS TEMPS DROPPING TO AT LEAST 60 DEGS AS FAR SOUTH AS BNA BY 08Z, BEFORE COLD FRONT STALLS AND THEN MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE MAP AT 23Z SHOWS A WARM FRONT SITUATED JUST EAST OF CKV, WITH IFR CIGS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO THE WARM FRONT, BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z WITH THE MAIN FRONT. ALSO, LOOK FOR LLWS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH ABOVE-SURFACE WINDS INCREASING AS THE UPPER LOW DRAWS CLOSER.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL MONDAY.
THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE BIG BEND AREA AND IS CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEAST. THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TAKE IT RIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OUR MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL BE HOW FAST THE COLUMN COOLS AS THE LOW APPROACHES. SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY HOLD BACK SOME OF THE ACCUMULATION AS TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA WE WILL BE MONITORING THERMAL PROFILES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR POSSIBLE EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING SO LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ADVY AREA AND A CONTINUED MIX EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING MAINLY FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND EASTERN COUNTIES AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES TO THE EAST AND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. SOME WRAPPING AROUND MOISTURE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SYSTEM PUSHES TO THE EAST COULD RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET FOR FEW HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU.
524 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER FRESH SNOW COVER WILL DOMINATE TEMPERATURES IN THE NEAR TERM.
THIS AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING. CENTER OF A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL CYCLONE WAS STILL CRAWLING EAST OVER THE BIG BEND REGION AND AS THIS TRACKS NORTHEAST TONIGHT ITS DEFORMATION ZONE WILL PIVOT OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS BEFORE MAKING A QUICK EXODUS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. KEPT HIGH TEMPS BELOW FREEZING IN MOST AREAS ON MONDAY DESPITE FULL SUN AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS.
716 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015 A COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. A NEW COLD FRONT OCCLUDES THIS FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT.
WV imagery and area radars show the upper trough just clearing the lower Trans Pecos, w/wraparound SN to continue most terminals next few hours. /issued 128 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015/ Upper low over the Big Bend this afternoon will move east this evening before lifting northeast tonight across North TX.
947 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO MID WEEK.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH FREEZING RAIN. AS THE MID TO UPPER LOW SWINGS ENE. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTH TEXAS. AND SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR. SOME ICE ACCUMULATION IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL OK WHERE WARMER NOSE AT 700 MB WILL NUDGE IN AROUND THE LOW. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY EXIT OUR REGION TO THE NE BY 18Z TOMORROW, BUT TRAIL SOME PATCHY SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK PERHAPS THROUGH LUNCHTIME. BASED ON THIS, AND MOISTURE PROFILES ACROSS NORTHERN OK, DECIDED TO BUMP POPS INTO THE HIGH CHC CAT TUE NIGHT.
1019 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST HOLDING A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL THROUGH MID-WEEK. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THE BLANKET OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TOMORROW. AS THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST APPROACHES INCREASING DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL AID IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
722 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL VEER TO EASTERLY OVERNIGHT. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY MORNING. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS/LOW QPF GRIDS FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT.
856 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015 A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND HAS A SURFACE REFLECTION OVER EAST TEXAS. THE LARGE AND STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS PLAGUED THE CARIBBEAN REGION FOR THE PAST WEEK IS FINALLY STARTING TO MOVE FURTHER EAST. THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER TEXAS WILL TRACK TO THE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK.
Gusty north to northwest winds will continue tonight, with the higher speeds and gusts at KABI. For tonight, potent upper level low will spin its way quickly across the southeast areas and then into southeast Oklahoma by Monday morning. Slick spots on roadways, especially bridges and overpasses, will certainly be likely, especially as temperatures fall to freezing after sunset. Conditions improve on Monday as the upper low shifts rapidly away from the area.
CERTAINLY A MOIST ENVIRONMENT AVAILABLE FOR CLOUD AND FOG FORMATION AT THE TERMINALS AND SUPPOSE THE BEST SPOT FOR POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE AROUND CHA WHERE INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS COULD LEAD TO AN MVFR CEILING AND PERHAPS A SHOWER IN THE VICINITY LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE ROTATES NORTH AROUND THE DEEP ARKLATEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER COULD KEEP FLIGHT WEATHER IN THE VFR MODE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AT TYS AND TRI. WENT AHEAD AND JUST FORECAST PREVAILING THUNDER AT THESE TERMINALS DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF MONDAY'S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
WITH A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTH. BUT DUE TO THE ONGOING UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT AXIS OF HEAVIEST FREEZING RAIN. INITIAL SLEET OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE QUICKLY TO FREEZING RAIN BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS WARM IN THE AFTERNOON.
612 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST HOLDING A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL THROUGH MID-WEEK. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THE BLANKET OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TOMORROW. AS THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST APPROACHES INCREASING DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL AID IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW SWINGING OUT OF THE BIG BEND REGION. THE NAM DETERMINISTIC DEPICTS 40-50KT 925MB WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WITH LESS THAN DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST 1-KM.
526 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015 TRACK AND INTENSITY OF SOUTHERN PLAINS STORM SYSTEM AND RESULTANT SNOWFALL WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY ON MONDAY.
522 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015 STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR EL PASO TX THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH MISSOURI INTO WISCONSIN BY MONDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM RANGE OUTPUT FROM THE MORNING MODEL RUNS SHOW THAT THEY HAVE COME TOGETHER WITH THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONE.
INCOMING TROUGH SEEMS TO BE STRETCHING. AND THE REST OF THE TROUGH STAYING NEAR THE U. WE HESITATE TO UPDATE WARMER IN CASE THE CLOUDS BREAK THERE.
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SQUALL LINE TO MOVE NEAR KBPT BY 28/01Z. THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY BRING AN END TO THE UNSEASONABLY WARM LATE DECEMBER WEATHER.
933 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC KEEPING A GENERALLY SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE.
820 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WV imagery and area radars show the upper trough moving into Central Texas, taking wraparound SN with it. WV imagery and area radars show the upper trough just clearing the lower Trans Pecos, w/wraparound SN to continue most terminals next few hours. /issued 128 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015/ Upper low over the Big Bend this afternoon will move east this evening before lifting northeast tonight across North TX.
431 PM MST SUN DEC 27 2015 UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA TODAY IS BEING PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH BEGINS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS TROUGH APPROACHES. AS WITH THE LAST PACIFIC TROUGH. THE ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT AS IT MOVES INLAND WITH MOST ENERGY MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF MONTANA.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF SOUTHERN PLAINS STORM SYSTEM AND RESULTANT SNOWFALL WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY ON MONDAY.
820 PM MST SUN DEC 27 2015 NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERT TONIGHT.
609 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015 UPPER END IFR TO LOWER END MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OVER OUR REGION TODAY. WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO BACK TONIGHT WITH APPROACH OF SPLIT FLOW TROUGH WHICH IS MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY.
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
STILL VERY DRY IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE 20S/30S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER. BUT STILL COOL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MANLY IN THE LOWER 40S AREAWIDE OVER THE INTERIOR. BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOCAL PATCHY FROST IN NORMALLY COOLER. VARIABLE LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA PROVIDING A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL CREATE WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH VARIABLE WINDS FALLING BELOW 10 KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING 2- 3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4 FT OFFSHORE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. POOR TO FAIR DISPERSION TODAY AS A HI PRES RIDGE BUILDS OVER CENTRAL FL.
WEAK COLD FRONT THEN SHIFTS SURFACE WINDS TO NORTH THIS EVENING AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.
532 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016 A backdoor cold front which slid through the region late last evening and resultant northeast surface flow will continue to draw colder air into the region today, holding high temperatures in the 20s and 30s nearly CWA-wide. Stratus over northern portions of the forecast area has struggled to spread southwestward overnight, and may allow for a few pockets of sunshine across east central KS and west central MO, possibly allowing temperatures to reach the lower 40s in those areas this afternoon. Winds will weaken progressively as high pressure drifts across northern Missouri this afternoon and into the Mississippi River valley this evening, taking the edge off the slightly below normal temperatures for the late afternoon and evening hours.
TEMPS WILL FINALLY GET ABOVE FREEZING. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO SPAN THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT. BEFORE RIDGING INFLUENCES WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME MODERATE WAA INTO THE MID STATE REGION. WITH HIGHS ON SAT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE MID STATE NOT GETTING ABOVE FREEZING.
AFTER A CHILLY START EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE EARLY THIS MORNING VIA C-MAN AND OFFSHORE BUOY TRENDS WITH ONGOING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF REMAINS IN CONTROL.
430 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016 ISSUED AT 427 AM CST THU FEB 11 201 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST KEEPING MOST OF THE REGION DRY AND COOL WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
High pressure ridging over the west coast continues while an offshore weather system spills high cloudiness across the north state. The upper ridge axis will slip eastward a bit today allowing for a bit more cooling but daytime highs are still expected to come in 10 or more degrees above normal for this time of year. The upper ridge axis will be displaced even farther to the east on Friday as a weak system rides over the ridge and into the Pacific northwest.
A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT.
Moisture streaming over the apex of the ridge of high pressure today will keep continuous cloud cover and developing mountain snow showers, with chances increasing later tonight into Friday.
527 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016 /12Z TAFS/ A weak cold front will move through KABI towards noon, shifting winds to the northwest to north at 10 KTS. /issued 347 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/ (Today and Tonight) A weak cold front will move south across the Big Country during the morning hours, reaching the I-20 corridor around noon, and a San Angelo to Brownwood line late afternoon. In the Concho Valley, and areas south and east, the cold front will have little effect with highs expected in the upper 70s to lower 80s! Winds will become light tonight as the weak front dissipates.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED IN THE GULF AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE HIGHER DEW POINTS.
A BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. ANCHORED BY UPSTREAM RIDGING WEST OF THE ROCKIES. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. A REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE AREA THEN WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD.