Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Some of the highest dewpoints will be seen across our eastern CWA Friday, this in combination with above normal temperatures for continuation of the Heat Advisory in our east. MUCAPE values in the lowest 3km to reach 2500-4000 J/kg. Where dewpoints are the highest near 70, the Heat Advisory continues eastern half of north central Nebraska through Saturday evening.
Showers and thunderstorms will linger mainly across the ridges and higher elevations through Friday afternoon. Dry and warmer weather is expected for the weekend. The weak cold front and associated line of convection continues to slowly make southward progress this evening. The frontal boundary should continue to make slow progress overnight, with showers lingering mainly across the ridges by sunrise Friday. Building high pressure will keep the remainder of the area dry with seasonable temperature.
Water vapour depicted upper ridge over the MO river valley. MLCIN drops below 50J/kg by 21z, quicker over the higher terrain of the Black Hills but with much less buoyancy. Cold front slices through CWA Saturday night bringing relief.
An upper level ridge continues to build over the central and souther plains while an upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest/southwest Canada slowly edges east. Temperatures will be slightly warmer today given slightly larger 1000-500mb thicknesses. Some areas, especially near the CO/KS border, could see highs in the mid-upper 90s, with widespread highs in the low 90s elsewhere.
202 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 Upper level high pressure will remain centered over Kansas and Oklahoma into tonight. This will keep temperatures seasonably hot with most areas again warming into the lower to middle 90s. Not seeing any threat for elevated storms overnight as the low- level jet will be focused well to our west and northwest. Lows tonight will be similar to the last several nights with readings ranging from around 70 degrees across the eastern Ozarks to the lower and middle 70s near the KS/MO border. That upper level high will hang on across the Plains into the upcoming weekend.
Upper level ridging is in place across the Central Plains. Friday is largely expected to be quiet, but a weak disturbance will move across the High Plains helping to develop thunderstorms across western Nebraska. Now, some guidance does indicate the potential for scattered activity early Friday morning skirting the Sandhills and our forecast area, but honestly much of the high res guidance has kept it dry and thus have kept the forecast dry for now. The weekend will bring a cold front and increased chances for thunderstorms. The upper ridge will flatten as a disturbance moves along the US/Canada border.
Temperatures will rise today and Saturday on the backside of a departing high pressure system as dew points steadily increase to uncomfortable levels by Saturday. An approaching low pressure system could bring some showers or thunderstorms across far north-central Wisconsin Saturday afternoon, with the bulk of the activity expected to hold off until later periods. Highs today are expected to rise into the lower to middle 80s as dew points rise into the lower to middle 60s.
Weak cold front progressing through the region early this morning with a few lingering showers.
223 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2020 An upper low now evident in moisture channel imagery will pinwheel about the northern Bahamas before being drawn poleward later on Saturday. Elongated low-level ridging will remain prominent around 30 degrees North as a tropical wave advances through the central Caribbean Sea. Given the nearby upper low, tropical wave to our south, and plentiful lower tropospheric moisture scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected through the short term period. While mid-level lapse rates aren't overly impressive some cooling is noted at 500 hPa with the upper low nearby. Lows will be seasonal, and should range from the lower to mid 70s for the Lake region to the upper 70s/lower 80s along the Atlantic coast.
Although an upper level ridge will be gradually building over our area, the boundary along with the moist air mass in place across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys will result in diurnal convection each day.
The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Hanna turning more to the West by the late afternoon hours, as the ridge to the north forces the more westerly movement. With the tropical system well to our southeast, the effects of the ridging to our north should win out and expecting most areas of the CWA to remain dry today. Locations south of I-10 and Highway 90 will see the best potential for the higher rainfall totals, but we are showing likely PoPs for the eastern 2/3rds of the area with chance PoPs for much of the remainder of the CWA.
427 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2020 High pressure will settle over the Great Lakes region today and remain nearby through the weekend.
158 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2020 A weak cold front will slowly move south toward the Ohio River tonight and stall south of the river early Friday. The front will eventually dissipate as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley for the weekend.
148 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2020 SW flow aloft will prevail over eastern Montana today ahead of an upper trough that will move through the area on Saturday. Waves in the SW flow today and tonight along with a cold front tonight and Saturday will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms at times. The best chance for storms will be tonight and Saturday morning with the cold front although precip chances could linger into Saturday afternoon in the east. While highs will be 90 today the cold front will cool highs by 10 to 15 degrees on Saturday. NW winds behind the cold front Saturday afternoon may approach Lake Wind Advisory criteria of 20 mph.
136 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2020 Weak low pressure will cross the region tonight. High pressure will build across the region Friday through Saturday.
One note is that the low level wind field, roughly 5000 feet AGL to the surface, will be as strong or stronger than the mid and upper level winds. But, with the potential for 1500 to 2000 J/kg CAPE and the freezing level around 13000 feet heavy rain will be possible again with some isolated severe storms.
Once again high pressure dominates with plenty of moisture for isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Today a H593 500 mb ridge axis will move directly over the forecast area. Factor in dewpoints in the low to mid 70s and heat index values will rise into the upper 90s to lower 100s. The ridge axis will remain over the area on Saturday with temperatures in the lower 90s. dewpoint again in the low to mid 70s will again yield heat index values in the upper 90s to near 105.
Tonight & Friday: Upper level ridging will build over the region resulting in fair weather and increasing temperatures. After lows Friday morning in the lower 70s, temperatures should rise into the low 90s by late afternoon (4 to 8 degree jump from today's highs). Friday Night through Saturday Night: As we move into Friday night, high level clouds should increase as the anvils from thunderstorm activity in the High Plains and Sandhills propagate eastward.
/Today through Saturday/ Upper ridge continues to amplify across the Southern Plains, as Tropical Storm Hanna skirts along the nrn Gulf Coast and a weak trof axis lingers to our ne. The effects of the upper ridge to our ne and cloud cover/convection will work against one another, likely resulting in max temps in the low to mid 90s. Hedged max temps slightly above the NBM but still keeping them in the lower 90s ballpark.
Guidance is suggesting that the southern half of the forecast area stands the best chance of clearing out in time for thunderstorm development over the high terrain around noon.
With a thermal trough continuing along the southern Oregon coast easterly winds will continue, with temperatures climbing into triple digits in the valleys of western Siskiyou county tomorrow.
958 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2020 High pressure will build across the region Friday through Saturday.
Will carry slight chance PoP into the evening hours, mainly in our eastern counties along the higher terrain. The 8h ridge will shift further west.
909 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2020 Sub tropical ridge extends into the southeast US today with an upper level trough/low over the Bahamas. Highs climb into the lower to mid 90s with the heat indices 102-106. High pressure ridge axis north of the state maintains prevailing east or southeast winds at 15 knots or less for the next few days.
A Pacific cold front will move eastward across North Central MT tonight, resulting in slightly cooler air moving into the region for Saturday.
649 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2020 High pressure will settle over the Great Lakes region today and remain nearby through the weekend.
633 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 321 AM CDT Aside from some patchy fog forming in some locations this morning and anticipated again early Saturday, broad ridging at the surface and upper levels should provide quiet and dry conditions over the next two days. Today will be the milder of the two, especially along the lake where highs may only reach into the low 80s due to easterly or northeasterly flow off the water. Saturday begins a return toward warmer and more humid conditions as winds shift to more of a southerly component.
A trough will persist over CA and western NV today and Saturday. This trough will continue to move dry air into NV from the south each day. Temperatures will remain hot with a slight warming trend with the highs in the low 90s today and mid 90s on Saturday.
/issued 416 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020/ (Today and Tonight) Today, the upper level ridge will be centered over Oklahoma/Kansas, resulting in easterly flow aloft, while easterly flow will also exist in the low levels as ridging exists to the northeast while Tropical Storm Hanna approaches the TX Coast. Surface dewpoints this afternoon will decrease into the low 60s, with day-time heating helping ML CAPE increase to around 500-1500 J/KG. Otherwise, the 850 mb thermal ridge will be similar to yesterday, if not a little stronger, so highs expect highs today to once again be in the mid to upper 90s, and perhaps touching 100 in a few locations, with partly cloudy skies. Tonight, we should see mild lows once again in the low to mid 70s as dewpoints increase into the upper 60s/low 70s.
416 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 (Today and Tonight) Today, the upper level ridge will be centered over Oklahoma/Kansas, resulting in easterly flow aloft, while easterly flow will also exist in the low levels as ridging exists to the northeast while Tropical Storm Hanna approaches the TX Coast. Surface dewpoints this afternoon will decrease into the low 60s, with day-time heating helping ML CAPE increase to around 500-1500 J/KG. Otherwise, the 850 mb thermal ridge will be similar to yesterday, if not a little stronger, so highs expect highs today to once again be in the mid to upper 90s, and perhaps touching 100 in a few locations, with partly cloudy skies. Tonight, we should see mild lows once again in the low to mid 70s as dewpoints increase into the upper 60s/low 70s.
Mild Friday morning to start as the upper ridge axis remains centered over the southern plains. Given no major changes in airmass today, temperatures are mostly similar to yesterday with readings in the lower 90s. Adjusted dewpoints slightly, mixing down to the low 70s at peak heating, resulting in maximum heat indices from 100 to 102 degrees.
427 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2020 The state remains pinned between strong central Plains ridge and passing trough moving across British Columbia and Alberta today.
Temperatures will remain cooler than average through the weekend. Water vapor imagery showed an inverted trof over west Texas moving NW while to our south over the southern half of the Gulf of California was a weak upper level low.
1026 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2020 High pressure will settle over the Great Lakes region today and remain nearby through the weekend.
347 AM PDT Fri Jul 24 2020 Storm chances continue today over Mohave County and the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada with dry conditions expected elsewhere.
638 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2020 A frontal boundary near the Ohio River will eventually dissipate as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley for the weekend.
Some patches of IFR stratocumulus have developed around daybreak over the highlands of the Irish Hills. Otherwise, tranquil aviation weather with high pressure in control.
Yet another small vort max is expected to move out of Colorado this afternoon and initiate convection along a trough in western Dakotas and Nebraska as the cap is weakened.
High pressure centered across the Great Lakes region providing a clear and rather comfortable early morning, with temperatures in the 60s and light winds. Today: Quiet in the short term as high pressure sits across the Great Lakes region. Dewpoints are expected to push into the lower to mid 70s in our western cwa. Tonight: Clear to partly cloudy with lows ranging from the lower 70s west to the mid 60s east.
630 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2020 High pressure will build across the region Friday through Saturday.
602 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 Upper level high pressure will remain centered over Kansas and Oklahoma into tonight. This will keep temperatures seasonably hot with most areas again warming into the lower to middle 90s. Not seeing any threat for elevated storms overnight as the low- level jet will be focused well to our west and northwest. Lows tonight will be similar to the last several nights with readings ranging from around 70 degrees across the eastern Ozarks to the lower and middle 70s near the KS/MO border. That upper level high will hang on across the Plains into the upcoming weekend.
317 AM PDT Fri Jul 24 2020 Storm chances continue today over Mohave County and the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada with dry conditions expected elsewhere.
Coverage of showers and storms increasing later this morning into early afternoon, before the highest coverage pushes onshore later this afternoon.
924 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2020 A frontal boundary near the Ohio River will eventually dissipate as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley for the weekend.
/GG/ Today and Tonight: Mid level ridge axis across the MidSouth will continue to push north today as the active easterlies take more firm control. While the high moisture content will lead to efficient rainfall production and heavy rain, relatively dry antecedent conditions have led to 1-hr FFG values around 3 inches, so the area can take some rainfall before it becomes a problem.
Slightly warmer high temperatures can be expected on Saturday with an upper level high centered over northwestern MO.
721 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2020 A trough will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms the next couple of days.
Today Through Saturday Night An upper ridge continues over the central U. with a trough over the west coast.
The cloud cover will help to keep temperatures slightly cooler than once expected. Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: Mid level ridge axis across the MidSouth will continue to push north today as the active easterlies take more firm control. While the high moisture content will lead to efficient rainfall production and heavy rain, relatively dry antecedent conditions have led to 1-hr FFG values around 3 inches, so the area can take some rainfall before it becomes a problem.
126 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2020 Quiet aviation conditions will remain in place through Saturday as high pressure holds over the area.
411 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2020 Building high pressure will bring dry and warmer weather for the weekend. Dry weather will continue through the weekend as a high pressure ridge builds across the eastern US.
246 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2020 The sub tropical ridge continues into the southeast US through Sat as an upper level trough/low over the Bahamas this afternoon dampens out as it slips over the state. Sun through next Fri: During Sun-Mon the subtropical ridge begins nudging south as another weak trough over the Bahamas ejects west to FL. On Tue the subtropical ridge continues south and reaches central FL by Wed and meanders there for the rest of the week. High pressure ridge axis stays north of the waters through the weekend then settles into central FL by midweek.
A trough of low pressure brushing along the Canadian border this afternoon will result in breezy westerly winds through the early evening.
An upper level ridge remains firmly in place across the region and no notable boundary or lifting mechanism in lower layers of the atmosphere is present. The other concern remains the high heat today. The forecast does not change much for tomorrow with the ridge remaining our dominate feature. Expect highs in the low to mid 90s with heat index readings in the low 100's for the start of our weekend.
Upper level ridge, with center over Oklahoma, is reorienting closer to the combined Panhandles this afternoon. An inverted trough is also present over the region and points southwest, which will aid with providing enough lift to spark another round of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. On Saturday, the reorienting ridge aloft will be over the combined Panhandles.
Currently, upper level ridge axis across the Western Great Lakes region with upper level low pressure spinning over southwestern Canada. An additional threat will be heavy rainfall rates with the high instability and precipitable water in the 1. Sfc boundary reestablishes over western North Dakota in the morning, then shifts east during the day as the upper low now over southwestern Canada ejects east across far southern Canada near the International Border Sat afternoon/evening.
Previous discussion: SW flow aloft will prevail over eastern Montana today ahead of an upper trough that will move through the area on Saturday. Waves in the SW flow today and tonight along with a cold front tonight and Saturday will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms at times. The best chance for storms will be tonight and Saturday morning with the cold front although precip chances could linger into Saturday afternoon in the east. While highs will be 90 today the cold front will cool highs by 10 to 15 degrees on Saturday. NW winds behind the cold front Saturday afternoon may approach Lake Wind Advisory criteria of 20 mph.
Any isolated thunderstorm activity will wane around sunset given lack of any appreciable low level convergence and an upper level high nearby. Saturday will be much the same, again, with afternoon temperatures warming into the lower to even mid 90s given the slight increase in 850mb temperatures.
342 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 TS Hanna continues it's westward track toward the lower Texas coast.
Upper ridging remains anchored across the middle of the nation with a 594-595dam upper 500mb ridge centered across Kansas and Missouri producing weak northerly flow across the region. Low level SE flow between a ridge across the Mid- Atlantic and Tropical Storm Hanna near south Texas. With differential heating along the higher terrain, thunderstorm initiation is expected by midday. Through the weekend, an elongated ridge of high pressure aloft will stretch from the southern plains east through the mid Atlantic.
400 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2020 High pressure will settle over Ohio tonight as an upper level ridge also builds on Saturday, influencing the region with dry weather through the weekend.
Drier stable air moved into most of the area with the arrival of a weak cold front.
202 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2020 A weak trough moving into the area this afternoon and overnight will focus scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through the evening.
Dew points were already in the 70s this morning, with a few localized spots hitting the low 80s. Will expand the excessive heat warning into the northern Red River Valley as several of the higher dew point pools have been up there and their heat index values are above the portions of the southern RRV currently. With the low level jet ramping up, some winds continuing as the system moves into western MN remains possible.
3 micron satellite loop does show a trend toward warmer brightness temperatures indicating warming/drying across our east-central and southeast and across our southwest. Tomorrow, a slight reorientation of the ridge won't be enough for significant changes to the thermodynamic environment.
307 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 High pressure will provide mostly clear skies tonight and plenty of sunshine tomorrow.
224 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2020 Leeside trough has pushed out into the Nebraska Panhandle this afternoon with downsloping northwest winds over southeast WYoming. Panhandle temperatures have climbed into the low 90s. Cold front approaches from the north Saturday morning with surface front near Cheyenne towards 12Z.
1129 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2020 A frontal boundary near the Ohio River will eventually dissipate as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley for the weekend.
High temperatures for today will be in the lower to mid 90s with heat index values in the upper 90s. Overnight low temperatures will be in the lower 70s for inland areas and in the upper 70s along the coastline.
Increasing cloud cover will help keep temperatures down a few degrees as well, mainly in the low to mid 90s.
251 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 18Z surface data has high pressure over Michigan.
High temperatures in the 90s along with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s are leading to very hot and uncomfortable temperatures. Besides the aforementioned heat index values, actual high temperatures will reach the low to upper 90s this afternoon and the low to mid 90s Saturday.
High temperatures will be around 90 on Saturday with dewpoints in the lower 70s.
Meanwhile, the warm plume to the west will fold southeast into the Lower Peninsula supporting an incremental climb in the temps - with the highest values over the Saginaw Valley, approaching 90*F.
250 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2020 Overview: SW-SSW flow aloft will prevail over the High Plains -- on the northwest periphery of an upper level ridge centered over the Central/Southern Plains. With synoptic subsidence to the east (beneath the ridge) and SW-SSW flow aloft over the Rockies -- convection will largely be tied to diurnal heating/topography, suggesting that development will most likely occur in climatologically favored areas (i. We are finally looking at some relief from the heat and dry weather with several days of cooler temperatures and rain. An upper level area of high pressure is expected to remain over the TX/OK panhandles extending into Iowa with the ridge extending into the Great Lakes region. An upper level area of low pressure will continue to move east across the Saskatchewan and Manitoba provinces with the trough extending towards the SD/NE line.
Indeed, satellite imagery shows fewer clouds and shower-free conditions over the far Upper Keys, while folks in the Lower Keys continue to see cumulonimbus clouds on the western horizon. The best remaining focus for convection is in the lingering moisture axis aligned from south through west of the Lower Keys. Through the weekend, the Keys waters will remain in the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge axis that is aligned from Bermuda to the Georgia coast.
1057 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2020 The state remains pinned between strong central Plains ridge and passing trough moving across British Columbia and Alberta today.
This evening through Saturday night The longwave trough continues to drift across Montana and the ridge remains in place over the central Plains.
144 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2020 High pressure will overtake a few weak boundaries that are over the region this afternoon and establish itself north of the region tonight. This high will settle over Ohio on Saturday as an upper level ridge also builds in, influencing the region with dry weather through the weekend.
209 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 Aside from some isolated storm potential mainly in the terrain, the forecast thru tonight will be quiet, with the H5 ridge overhead. The center of the H5 ridge shifts north a bit up into KS as well, thus there was were hints in the data of isolated to widely scattered storm potential during the day from SE OK up into NW AR.