Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/06Z TAF UPDATE/ THE HIGH CLOUD CANOPY AND THE WIDE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE WILL MAKE FOR SOME GUESSWORK ON THE LOW CLOUD LOWERINGS OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. THE MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT BEGINNING OUT WEST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
1210 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY IN THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND.
VFR CONDITIONS TO LAST AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SE STATES.
821 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015 Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place. The ridge of high pressure will begin breaking down Sunday. However, much of the low clouds across the valleys around the region has lifted into a low stratus deck. This disturbance is also producing a lot of high clouds across the central and northern portion of the region, which is not allowing the lower levels of the atmosphere to radiate out as well. Road temperatures are beginning to drop to below freezing as well, so the possibility for some slick spots is expected through Saturday morning.
309 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2015 Lower Pacific moisture was streaming into the nation's midsection this morning in advance of a large upper level low centered over the Desert Southwest. We think this will continue to saturate the lower trop, setting up additional rainfall later this afternoon. Areas along and north of Interstate 44 will experience the best chances for measurable rain today, with the lower chances in far south central Missouri. A cold front will shift across the region on Sunday, cooling temperatures sufficiently for a brief change over to snow.
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SLOWLY SATURATES. THE MAIN RAIN EVENT WILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT HOWEVER AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE LAGGING BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT.
THE CLOUDS MAY THICKEN ENOUGH NY THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO SLIGHTLY HINDER MAX TEMPS FROM REACHING THE WARMER MOS MAXES.
A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
1212 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 PERIODS OF SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL.
HAVE A FEW CONCERNS THE LOWER MY CONFIDENCE IN NEEDING A WATCH. ALL REASONS TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. COLD EVENT WITH SNOW AND NORTHEAST GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS SUGGESTS FREEZING SPRAY AND MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH IN LATER FORECASTS.
414 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 LATEST REGIONAL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG 1033MB HIGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH RIDGING SW THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS. EXPECT MUCH COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. AN UPPER LOW REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/WESTERN ARIZONA. FROM SUNDAY EVENING ON THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD. EXPECT SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TODAY ALONG WITH WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WARM NOSE WILL ONLY GET DEEPER AND WARMER TODAY. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
144 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS. EXPECT MUCH COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL OCCUR INTO SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
948 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015 Areas of low clouds and fog will persist across portions of Inland Northwest as high pressure remains in place. The ridge of high pressure will begin breaking down Sunday. However, much of the low clouds across the valleys around the region has lifted into a low stratus deck. This disturbance is also producing a lot of high clouds across the central and northern portion of the region, which is not allowing the lower levels of the atmosphere to radiate out as well. Road temperatures are beginning to drop to below freezing as well, so the possibility for some slick spots is expected through Saturday morning.
AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT SOUTH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF.
358 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY, ENDING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
Some guidance is even trying to take the Bootheel and portions of west Kentucky into the lower 50s Sunday. To go along with the warmer solution, the models have increased rainfall closer to an inch in the south, with 2/3" in the north.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD MOISTURE INTO UTAH THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA CONTINUES TO SPREAD A DEEP MOIST AIRMASS INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. SOUTHWEST UTAH STARTING TO SEE SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW BUT WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST AS SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THIS POCKET OF COLDEST H5 TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL ALSO SEND THE UPPER LOW RETREATING SOUTH TOWARDS MEXICO. STORM WILL PRETTY MUCH END BY TOMORROW EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS BACK INTO THE AREA.
348 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY, ENDING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT NORTHERN PORTIONS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
328 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY.
/ISSUED 356 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/ A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A STRONGER MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR RAIN LATE SATURDAY MORNING OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE WESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES. FORECASTS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THIS EVENT ARE COMPLEX GIVEN PROJECTED THERMAL PROFILES VERY NEAR FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
200 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. BRINGING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME LOCAL OFFSHORE WINDS.
/ISSUED 355 PM CST FRI Jan 30 2015/ (Tonight and Saturday) An upper trough over Baja California was bringing lift and scattered showers to Arizona, New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. By Sunday afternoon and evening, the northern stream flow should push the upper low into central Mexico, causing precipitation chances to decrease across West Central Texas. A cold front and weak upper level ridging will move into the area on Sunday reinforcing the cooler air and clearing skies Sunday night. If skies clear, temperatures should drop below freezing across most of the region.
CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
145 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 PERIODS OF SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL.
Weak low pressure trough exists at the surface to the east of the Rockies with observations upstream in AB indicating the frontal boundary expected to move south across the border late tonight now in between Calgary and Lethbridge. An associated cold front will cross the Canadian border around 12z Saturday. The surface cold front associated with this feature will cross the International border around 09Z.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN IN THE PERIOD. A SW CONUS UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE WILL SKIRT THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
1157 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 AVIATION LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME SNOW ON SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN NEAR THE INDIANA BORDER.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON THIS EVENING. INCLUDING THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT WHILE THE REST OF THE ARE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUD FREE. THE AREAS UNDER THE LOW CLOUDS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY WHILE STRONGER RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR IN THE CLEARER AREAS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY AND BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP JUST A LITTLE BIT AS WELL.
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FOR SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS. WIND ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 23Z AT LEAST FOR NOW.
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TO THE ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM OUT WEST DIGS INTO MEXICO. IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WHEN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH BREAKS OFF AND MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH AND FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT NIGHT.
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE COOLER AS THEY DID NOT GET AS WARM. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MAN/HUDSON BAY. TROUGH WILL ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT AND SAT AND SEND COLD AIR ACROSS THE BORDER TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION LINE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT BUT WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD AROUND SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING DIES OFF AND INCREASED LIFT HELPS SOUNDINGS DROP TOWARD FREEZING IN THE LOW LEVELS. ANTICIPATE THE HIGHEST RATES SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA WHERE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SETS UP WITH THOSE RATES DECREASING BY SUNDAY MORNING.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OH VALLEY REGION. ESPECIALLY IN RIDGE/VALLEY LOCATIONS. AS A STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NEWD OUT OF THE DESERT SW.
A LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL COLORADO. LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER REGION.
Weak low pressure trough exists at the surface to the east of the Rockies with observations upstream in AB indicating the frontal boundary expected to move south across the border late tonight now in between Calgary and Lethbridge. An associated cold front will cross the Canadian border around 10z Saturday. The surface cold front associated with this feature will cross the International border around 09Z.
114 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY FOR A COLD AND CLEAR SKY DAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST-EAST WIND. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NWRN SOUTH PLAINS WHICH COULD POSE A RISK OF LIGHT SNOWFALL MIXING IN WITH SNOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE/NW SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINING AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE FCST AREA EARLY SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE WRN CONUS RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER. EARLY SUNDAY THE MOST LIKELY TIMING OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. STILL, TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR BUT MAY STILL WARM A LITTLE AROUND ELKHART.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER.
DESPITE THE UPPER TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. LATEST MARINE AND LAND SURFACE OBSERVATSIONS AND ANALYSIS OVERLAID ON IR IMAGERY AS OF 300 AM DETAIL THE 1020-1023 MB WESTERN EDGE OF A ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REACHING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ATALNTIC OCEAN. BECAUSE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT. MID LEVEL TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONAL SCALE TROUGH OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
A WEAK TROUGH WILL SKIRT ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER OF NEVADA WITH AN ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGING WILL PROVIDE SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
634 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015 WARM TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRIDAY.
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AWAY BUT WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE ANY CANYON WINDS GREATER THAN 245 MPH. FREEZE WARNING IN THE ANTELOPE VLY MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE BUT ALL THE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S AND THE WINDS JUST WENT CALM SO THERE COULD WELL BE A QUICK DROP TO FREEZING AROUND DAWN. A LITTLE WARMER INLAND DUE TO THE HIGHER HGTS BUT COOLER ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS WITH THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW.
Latest sfc analysis now places stationary/warm front just south of the KC metro with extension east-northeast into north-central Missouri. Increasing wind fields in the lower levels of the atmosphere combined with backed low-level flow along and near the retreating boundary will likely result in an increased tornado threat as low-level helicity values increase. renewed convection is expected to develop along the main cold front that is still progged to move through the area tomorrow morning. Temps will definitely be cooler as cold air advection infiltrates the area following Thursday's front.
332 AM PDT THU APR 9 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR TODAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE TROUGH THURSDAY. DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY YUMA COUNTY AND THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ZONES WHERE H8-7 LAYER MEAN RH IS THE BEST. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE FA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD ERODE THE STRATUS AND FOG FROM WEST TO EAST. MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER 50S TO MID 50S.
/ISSUED 344 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015/ CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL LOW TRANSLATES FROM WY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DRYLINE WILL ATTEMPT TO RETREAT WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AS DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND KNOCKING OFF A FEW DEGREES FROM THE HIGHS OVER VALUES SEEN TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY.
619 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER LOW IS OVER EASTERN WY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH IS BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME BREEZY WINDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD ARE EXPECTED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WHEN THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. WHILE THE REGION WILL BE UNDER UPPER RIDGING FRIDAY. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. HIGHER PROBS FOR MVFR STRATUS CIGS AND SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR NEAR END OF VALID TAF PERIOD AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NEB TOWARD MN/GREAT LAKES. WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH NORTHEAST KS TO SOUTHERN IA/WEST CENTRAL IL. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRAPAROUND OF THE LOW SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY.
COOLER THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MOVE THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N OVER THE PLAINS FOR THU MORNING. THANKS TO THE COLD FRONT IT SHOULD BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COOLER. HIGH TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD GENERALLY BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THOSE ON THU.
459 AM MDT THU APR 9 2015 A NORTH FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVED EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PHASE IS MOSTLY SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CO VALLEYS HOVERING NEAR FREEZING AND SLOWLY COOLING. DAYLIGHT WILL BRING A MORE RAPID DOWNTURN AS A QUICK RIDGE APPROACHES. KMTJ AND KAIB ARE APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK.
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY KICKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. MEANWHILE, AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING BRINGING ABOUT A NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO THE REGION. EVEN THOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET CORE ASSOCIATED TO TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS, MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN DRIER CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S, WITH SOME READINGS CLOSE TO FREEZING FROM DODGE CITY WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD.
WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF A BONHAM TO DFW TO COMANCHE LINE BY 00Z.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SE TODAY WITH SUBSIDENT WARMING AND DRYING WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION. RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVE INTO NORTH GA. WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS.
As an upper trough continues to move east, showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are possible, mainly across the Northwest Hill Country and Heartland today. Another cold front will begin to push into West Central Texas later today; however, this event will be mainly a wind shift, and winds from the north to northeast won't begin until overnight. Thus, overnight lows will be cooler than the last couple nights, but still in mainly the 55 to 60 range; that's 5 to 10 degrees above normals.
350 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2015 Today/Tonight: The approach of the upper trough and strengthening low-level jet has aided in sufficient ascent to generate an increase in convective development over the past 1-2 hours across parts of the Central Plains and Mid Missouri Valley. Current surface analysis point to low pressure near Great Bend, KS with an accompanying cold front stretching southwestward, and near stationary warm front northeast from the low situated over far northwest Missouri near STJ. Forecast reflects the anticipation of shallow convection to develop along the cold front prior to midday just east of the KS/MO border. High pressure builds in on Friday, with the coolest day in the near-term with highs in the middle 60s. As the high shifts east for the weekend, warmer weather and a return of southerly winds/moisture will commence.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. STORMS WILL MOVE OUT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL DECEASE FRIDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER, SINCE WE ARE STARTING THE DAY SO WARM, AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY IS REASONABLY SMALL, WILL GO WITH TEMPS ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE AND TAKE HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S FOR MOST AREAS TODAY. COLD FRONT MOVES IN TONIGHT, ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SQUALL LINE.
RIDGE ALOFT WEAKENS INTO LATE WEEK AS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST U. BUT WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN FIRM CONTROL OF LCL WX. GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION FRI SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME FREEZING RAIN UNTIL DAYBREAK. GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING SO ICE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MOSTLY ELEVATED OBJECTS. IF THE WARM FRONT GETS CLOSE TO EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
248 AM MDT THU APR 9 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE TROUGH THURSDAY. DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY YUMA COUNTY AND THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ZONES WHERE H8-7 LAYER MEAN RH IS THE BEST. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE FA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD ERODE THE STRATUS AND FOG FROM WEST TO EAST. MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER 50S TO MID 50S. MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR INCOMING SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
445 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015 A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER BEFORE A STRONG WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY.
A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO AND WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD TO MINNESOTA AND IOWA BY THE END OF THE DAY THEN NEWD ACROSS WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR MASS THIS EVENING. COOL SURFACE RIDGING WILL MIGRATE EAST OF THE REGION SPURRING MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT. BUT WE REMAIN SKEPTICAL OF THIS RATE OF MOISTENING/SATURATION ALOFT GIVEN TONIGHT/S COLD FRONT HAS PLANS TO STALL QUITE A WAYS FARTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS INDICATED DAYS AGO.
IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW 30S LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU IN THE ANTELOPE VLY. FOLLOWED QUICKLY BE WEAK UPPER TROFFINESS ON THU. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE E PAC IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL W AND SW OF THE FORECAST AREA THU THRU FRI NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO AFFECT THE WEATHER OVER SWRN CA EXCEPT BRING SOME MID AND HI LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE REGION AT TIMES. TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON THU.