Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
103 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY.
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THE NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES.
431 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING THE CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE, THE TRI-STATE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE YIELDING EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW.
TONIGHT AN UPR LOW AND TROF ARE FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM ID AND SOUTHWARD OVR THE GREAT BASIN. THAT UPR TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ON THU. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH MOIST UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS.
125 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
649 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY.
639 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY BUT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY MORNING.
AND WITH DEW PTS PROGGED BY GFS IN THE LOW 60S MUCAPE IN THE 2000-2200 J/KG RANGE IS POSSIBLE 21Z-00Z PERIOD IN A CORRIDOR ABOUT 50 MILES AHEAD OF FRONT. CLEARING AND COOLER AIR TO WORK INTO DVL BASIN BY 12Z FRI. FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
342 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH SE ID. W WY AND N UT TODAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING OVER NORTHEAST UT THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL THEN LINGER OVER WESTERN CO THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS UPPER JET ALSO COINCIDES WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOK FOR A DOWNTURN IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST. BY EARLY FRI EVENING THE MAIN TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AND ITS SURFACE FRONT WILL BE PLUNGING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE. RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA KEEPING PRECIPITATION CLOSE TO THE FRONT.
650 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY KEEPING THE WEATHER MAINLY DRY AND WARM.
THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROJECTED MOVEMENT EAST OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN INCOMING RIDGE PATTERN. AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS. ONE MORE SHORT WAVE LOBE WILL INSTIGATE SOME CONVECTION OVER EASTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON JUST AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE INTO COASTAL CALIFORNIA. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY QUICKLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND SPREAD ITS INFLUENCE EASTWARD THUS CONVECTION SHOULD SHUT OFF RATHER ABRUPTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR VERY EARLY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE FRIDAY TO BRING WARMER CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE TO ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN NEVADA AS WELL AS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL NEVADA.
THE LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND WESTERN IDAHO WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL TAKE THE LOW ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA AND INTO WYOMING. THIS WILL BRING MORE OF THE MAIN TROUGHS ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS A FLAT RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE RIDGE MOVE IN. AS THE RIDGE WILL BE FLAT. THE FLOW WILL THEN TURN SW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC UPPER LOW FOR TUE THROUGH THU. WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S ON SUN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ON MON AS THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET IN THE BASE OF THE PACIFIC UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA.
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S AS OF 3 AM CDT. 00Z 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER RIDGE NOSING INTO THE REGION AND THIS WILL HELP LIMIT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
The first of these impulses is sparking off convection across the High Plains this afternoon, and this feature will bring rain and a few storms to the area as early as sunrise Thursday.
MCV OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY SHOULD WORK ON DEEP MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE OVER THE MID SOUTH AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. PERHAPS THE LOWEST CHANCE OF RAIN WOULD BE OVER NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. GUIDANCE MAX SCHEME LOOKS GOOD WITH WARMEST MAXES ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AREA AND SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND ALONG THE PLATEAU WHERE CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD CAP OFF HEATING.
THE MAIN TROUGH SNEAKS TO THE EAST A TOUCH TOMORROW.
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST IN THE PERIOD. MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. SHEAR REMAINS QUITE LIMITED WITH 20-25 KNOTS PROGGED WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE WILL BE. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH THUR NIGHT AND SUPPORT AN ENHANCED AREA OF CONVERGENCE WITH SHRA CHANCES CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. WITH A SOUTHWARD SHIFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH ALONG WITH LSA.
IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW. HIGH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO RATHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SAME TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
452 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A WEAK VORT WILL RIDE NORTHEASTWARD IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. FRIES RIDGING IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN THURSDAY. THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WV/MD RIDGES AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY CROSSES. MODEL PROGS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER EAST FOR FRIDAY.
335 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING THE CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS ON THE LOW SIDE.
AREA OF DEEP LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WHICH SHOULD IMPACT CHA AND TYS WITH SOME PERIODS OF MVFR FLIGHT WEATHER.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE WEAK RIDGE AXIS ALONG WITH RECENT RAINS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE H85 CLOSED LOW WITH SFC REFLECTION TRANSLATES INTO FAR NW MINNESOTA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY.
700 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY. CONTINUES TO DWINDLE IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD PUSH OF THE 850 MB TROUGH TO OUR EAST. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH A FLAT RIDGE ALOFT AND DEEP DRY AND SINKING AIR. -GIH AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY TUESDAY WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT NEAR FREEZING.
151 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 THE BRIEF SPELL OF COLD AIR OVER THE REGION MOVE TO OUR EAST MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA. WARMER AIR WILL RETURN AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY MID WEEK.
323 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016 High pressure will control the weather across central Illinois today, providing mostly sunny skies and seasonal temperatures in the lower to middle 50s. Winds will initially be from the W/NW early this morning, then will become SW by late this afternoon as the ridge axis shifts into the Ohio River Valley. As has been advertised for several days, a large upper-level trough currently off the coast of California will track eastward across the Rockies, causing surface cyclogenesis over the western Plains on Tuesday. Questions still remain regarding how quickly this system will track eastward through Illinois and how far southward the prevailing baroclinic zone will settle before the low arrives.
330 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016 INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEARLY SPOT-ON NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S TODAY AND TOMORROW. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND WEAK ELEVATED COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MAIN CONCERN IN THIS TIME RANGE IS THE STRONG UPPER LOW THAT SWEEPS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT.
440 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING.
455 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016 (Today and Tonight) Northwest flow aloft over the forecast area today will become nearly zonal tonight as an upper trough over the Pacific Northwest this morning moves over the northern Rockies tonight. As a lee-side trough develops over the Panhandle this afternoon, south winds will become gusty over the forecast area by by mid-morning, increasing to 15-25 by early afternoon. Morning lows tomorrow will return to near seasonal with lows in the mid 40s to the lower 50s. Weak ridging aloft will transition to a more zonal flow by mid week as an upper level trough digs over the four corners area.
THEN A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT HAS EXITED TO THE SOUTH. BUT THE REAL PUSH OF COOL DRY AIR IS JUST MOVING INTO THE REGION AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. AND COULD SEE SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS DROP TO AROUND FREEZING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 48N AND 143W, WITH AN ELONGATED VORT MAX TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE 40N PARALLEL. OTHERWISE, JUST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CONTINUED COOLER TEMPS.
This may be our last freeze here at MAF as a warmer than normal winter gives way to spring.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday with the arrival of a cold front.
Not much change from the prev forecast other than trending slightly warmer as well as stronger sfc winds. With sly sfc winds across the region and swly low level winds pushing the thermal ridge over the region, temps shud climb into the upper 60s and 70s. Heights fall as the upper trof approaches and the low level temps are cooler. This shud lead to a slightly cooler day. Have trended aoa the warmer guidance for Tues, but just below this for Wed for now. With lower heights progd for the remainder of the forecast, have trended cooler compared to earlier this week. A deeply amplified trof with a sfc fnt stretched across the region will bring another chance for precip to the area.
STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
A COOL AND DRY MEAN LAYER NNW FLOW WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND HIGH TEMPS AROUND 10 DEG BELOW CLIMO VALUES ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S TODAY UNDER BREEZY NW WINDS 15G25MPH AT TIMES. WINDS RELAX INTO THE EVENING AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND A COOL NNW DRAINAGE FLOW WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE LOW/MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S COAST. LIGHT FLOW EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 60S COAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE.
330 AM PDT MON MAR 21 2016 A WEAK PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH INCREASED WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. WHILE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN WARMER OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
625 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MIDLANDS BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY AS A BROAD RIDGE PUSHES EAST OVER THE CENTRAL US. THE COOLER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL HIGHS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
NW UPPER FLOW WILL STAY OVER THE AREA FOR ONE MORE DAY AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES ONTO THE EAST COAST.
1216 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. /ISSUED 832 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016/ CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA AS UPPER TROUGH PULLS OUT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FREEZING OR SUB FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER ARKANSAS TONIGHT. UNDER THE HIGH. MOST TEMPERATURES BY DAWN MONDAY WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST ON MONDAY.
618 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABNORMALLY WARM WEATHER TODAY. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND TUESDAY. BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES. ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST. REGIONAL WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THIS MORNING. AS A EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH SPINS JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. STILL QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW. THICKNESSES REMAIN ELEVATED AND THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE WARM ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ONCE AGAIN TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 90S FOR MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PRESENTLY SITUATED OVER OUR REGION WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST OF US TODAY. THE NEXT MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH CROSSES SOUTHERN IDAHO ON TUESDAY.
313 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY.
424 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016 An upper-level ridge over the Rockies as depicted on water vapor imagery will begin to flatten as it enters the Central Plains early this week. This will allow for much warmer temperatures to build into the local area compared to the unseasonably cool temperatures over the past weekend.
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WILL FLATTEN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR LEE TROUGHING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. WITH WARMING EXPECTED OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW AND WARMING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE TOMORROW. ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR AREAS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH MAINLY 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL SEE BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH DEVELOPING OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON TOMORROW. WILL LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE HIGH MT VALLEYS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS. ALL THOUGH CANT RULE OUT SOME CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL EAST WHILE AMPLIFIED RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY. DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND COOLER 850MB TEMP WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH WAA INTO THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
REMOVED FREEZING RAIN FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH THIS UPDATE. OUR PROB ICE PRESENT WAS IN ERROR AND GENERATED A RATHER LARGE AREA OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ND. REMOVING THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL IS MORE IN LINE WITH NATIONAL PARTNERS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES. DEVELOPING LEE SIDE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MONTANA WAS PAIRED WITH HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXTENDED ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT THE WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT OR GREATER THAN 20 MPH FOR 3 HOURS OR MORE GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR EARLY PART OF THE WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM ABOUT THE NAPLES AREA NORTHEAST TO WEST PALM BEACH EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND BE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.
CORRECTED TEMPS HAVE INCREASED A GOOD 10 TO 20 DEGREES TODAY OVER YESTERDAY WITH THE HELP OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND THE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE A BETTER SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE HIGH PEAKS IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITH THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TRENDED TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE FOR NOW.
442 AM MDT MON MAR 21 2016 SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ALOFT THIS MORNING AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTERACTS WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE. CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE GETTING WRAPPED INTO THE ONCOMING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT AS VERTICAL SUPPORT INCREASES.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS OREGON AND INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO ON TUESDAY. A MAJORITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET TODAY WHICH WILL BE SOUTH OF A ROME- MOUNTAIN HOME-SUN VALLEY LINE AS WELL AS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH SOUTHEAST OREGON BETWEEN 00Z-03Z AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO BETWEEN 03Z- 06Z. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MILD /LOW 60S IN THE VALLEY/ TODAY BUT WILL COOL BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES ON TUESDAY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN SPREADING SNOW ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND LARGER AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH. THERE IS A SMALLER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SOUTH AT THE ONSET WHILE TEMPS ARE NEAR FREEZING. ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN N CNTRL UPPER MI WHERE UPSLOPE NE FLOW WILL INCREASE. PER THE LOWER PROB GFS SCENARIO.
1105 PM MDT SUN MAR 20 2016 TEMPS HAVE INCREASED A GOOD 10 TO 20 DEGREES TODAY OVER YESTERDAY WITH THE HELP OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND THE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE A BETTER SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE HIGH PEAKS IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITH THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM.
651 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND LINGERS THROUGH MID WEEK.
352 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016 Quieter weather is in store for the PAH forecast area for the next 48 hours as broad mid level ridging commences across the central CONUS, and all lows/frontal systems stay well to the north.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN GULF COAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS THE N-NE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE HIGHER SEAS. 500 MB AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
555 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER PA TODAY WILL QUICKLY LIFT OUT EARLY THIS WEEK. GIVING WAY TO A BUILDING RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ORIGINATING FROM A PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE STREAMING OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO OUR REGION. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TODAY ALLOWING MID LEVEL S/WV IMPULSES TO TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NEAR A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
336 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 THE BRIEF SPELL OF COLD AIR OVER THE REGION MOVE TO OUR EAST MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA. WARMER AIR WILL RETURN AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY MID WEEK.
309 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND LINGERS THROUGH MID WEEK.
409 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND QUIET THROUGH TONIGHT. A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S DURING THE EVENING BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE LATE. IT WILL BE WARMER TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S. QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRIFT OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWS AREAS OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER UPSTREAM RIDGE.
320 AM MST MON MAR 21 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABNORMALLY WARM WEATHER TODAY. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND TUESDAY. BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES. ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST. REGIONAL WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THIS MORNING. AS A EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH SPINS JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. STILL QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW. THICKNESSES REMAIN ELEVATED AND THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE WARM ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ONCE AGAIN TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 90S FOR MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND LINGERS THROUGH MID WEEK.
THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE WIND AND THE COMBINATION OF LOWER DAYTIME HUMIDITIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL AFFECT GRASSLAND FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH A RECORD HIGH POSSIBLE AT RUSSELL. WHILE THE LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THE DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL KEEP SOUTH WINDS STOUT ON TUESDAY NIGHT.