Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cloud cover will play a key role in determining whether temperatures fall below freezing tonight and how much frost develops. However, if cloud cover redevelops and overspreads the area tonight then temperatures will likely struggle to fall below freezing and frost may not develop. At this time, wind speeds do not appear high enough (winds diminish a bit in the afternoon as high pressure moves in) to produce anything more than moderate fire danger, but if stronger winds than currently forecast develop, then very high fire danger will be possible. This could lead to freezing temperatures and frost formation once again for many locations across northern and eastern Kansas. We'll see the beginning of a gradual warm up early this week as an upper-level ridge tries to develop overhead.
A steady warming trend will continue, pushing high temperatures into the mid to upper 90s for the lower deserts for both Monday and Tuesday.
Surface wet bulb temperatures look just a tad warmer than earlier indications but it is really trivial in this type of situation, and even with wet snow falling we are expecting no impacts other than an inch or two on unpaved surfaces. Pleasant to Lansing to Jackson line, and especially into the thumb region of the state, where hourly precipitation rates will be heavier and the snowfall may overcome the warmer pavement temperatures for a time.
High temperatures should be in the low 60s to low 70s.
Warmer and breezy/windy with shower/thunderstorm chances chances mid/late week.
1258 AM EDT Mon Apr 18 2022 Periods of rain and snow return today and continue into Tuesday with crossing low pressure and following northwest flow.
330 AM EDT Mon Apr 18 2022 Northwesterly flow aloft will develop today in the wake of a departing trough. This will result in a drier and cooler conditions both today and tomorrow. Overnight as the aforementioned high pressure continues to build over the region cooler air be trapped under the high.
1038 PM MDT Sun Apr 17 2022 Have allowed the high wind warning and wind advisory to expire. Cold front has made its way through western SD, behind which pressure rises were 5-6 mb/3 hr this morning, but have since decreased. As high pressure settles over the area this evening, winds will diminish.
All of this is associated with a southward sagging cold front moving onto western Kansas, which should move south of the KS/OK line by the early afternoon. In these areas, the risk of freezing is low, whereas across the remainder of the forecast area north to I-70 and west to the CO line, the vegetation guidance is not susceptible to freeze yet. The cold advection in the midday should divert any potential surprise "warmer than expected" temps this afternoon. A split upper flow appears to continue as a northern and central Great Plains 500 mb ridge shifts east by late Tuesday afternoon as a southern branch jet streak is nosing right into the Panhandles.
VFR conditions should prevail through the period, although there is a bit of uncertainty at GUY as a reinforcing push of cooler air threatens to saturate the low levels and generate some stratus Monday morning. After several locations getting below freezing this morning, the afternoon sunshine will warm up the Panhandles with temperatures expected to be into the 70s this afternoon. With good radiational cooling, overnight lows will range from the mid 30s to the lower 40s. A perturbation in the mean H500 zonal flow will help to usher in some cooler air from the north. Scattered cloud coverage under SE flow will try and develop under the higher Td values trying to enter the region tomorrow afternoon. Low temperatures tomorrow night will be near average for mid April with values ranging from the lower to mid 40s.
619 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2022 Low level stratus has developed this morning along with patchy fog ahead of an approaching cold front. Mesoanalysis reveals a cold front currently draped across South- Central Texas. Meanwhile, another upper level short wave will ride around the periphery of the ridging to our southwest, providing enough support for some showers in the morning and potential for some storms in the afternoon as instability increases. High temps today will warm into the low 80s along the coast to the mid 90s out west. Cooler conditions are expected across our northern counties tonight as drier air settles in. Increasing cloud cover tomorrow will knock a few degrees off the highs with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s out west.
403 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2022 A surface cold front has moved through the forecast area this morning and gusts behind it are expected to increase to 20-25 mph with gusts up towards 25-35 mph by late this morning as mixing increases. Light winds, mostly clear skies and cool high pressure should allow overnight lows to bottom out in the low 20s in our western counties to the upper 20s in the west, which looks to be one of our last cold mornings for a while.
Most of the lift associated with this wave is being generated by a weak jet stream over the area with relatively dry air at the low levels.
A MINOR UPPER LOW OFF THE PAC NW COAST IS FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS IS ALLOWING MOISTURE TO MOV THRU THE RIDGE RESULTING IN ISOLD TSTMS IN THE CENTRAL MTNS THIS EVE AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTN AND EVE. THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS THRU SUN NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRIGGER ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LEMHI COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK IS HOT AND DRY AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST.
343 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2015 (Tonight and Monday) Upper trough, oriented from Del Rio to Dallas, will push south into South Texas Monday, as upper level high pressure builds in from the northwest and west.
1241 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2015 /18Z TAFS/ South wind gusts of 20-25 KTS expected into early evening as lee trough strengthens. /ISSUED 352 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2015/ (Today and tonight) An upper level ridge will remain across the Desert Southwest, while while an inverted trough/upper level low remains across much of Texas. Lows will be in the lower 70s.
/ISSUED 1115 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/ THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK UPPER LOW STILL SPINNING ACROSS NE TX NEAR THE RED RIVER IN VC OF GYI/DUA. WITH THE COOLER TOPS HAVING MIGRATED FARTHER NW TO NEAR DUA. AS A WEAK ATTENDANT TROUGH AXIS MAY NUDGE E DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A WEAK MARINE PUSH IS LIKELY TONIGHT FOR COOLER TEMPS MONDAY.
305 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT.
1226 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015/ ONE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE SW US WHERE SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE OVER 100 DEGREES TODAY! ANOTHER IS STARTING TO BUILD INTO THE SE US WHERE OUR TEMPS WILL GET WARMER AS WE HEAD INTO THE WORK WEEK. A DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE OKLATEX AREA BETWEEN THE RIDGES.
WITH A BLOCKING RIDGE IN PLACE AT THE SFC ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST REGION. WITH A SUBSIDENT AIR FLOW PATTERN ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SW STATES. THE EXCEPTION IS A WEAK INVERTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS LOCATED OVER ERN TX WHICH IS RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS AS FAR NE AS AR/NRN MS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE PATTERN OUT W GRADUALLY TRANSLATES EWD. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVER THE SE REGION.
213 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015 OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF A MASSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THUS AS COLD FRONTS APPROACH THEY CAN RAPIDLY PULL IN SOME WARM MOIST AIR.
IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OUT WEST COULD HELP TO BRING A COLD FRONT INTO MAYBE THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. 42 LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT UPPER FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL WITH SLIGHT RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THETA- E ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW /NORTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD/ LATE THIS EVENING AND QUICKLY PUSH EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS STORM MOTION INCREASES NEAR 40 KTS. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW. AND SO LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY TO THE UPPER 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION MONDAY. AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTH.
538 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT.
530 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA KEEPING SKIES CLEAR THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. ALONG THE HIGHWAY 90 PORTIONS OF THE ESCARPMENT. TEMPERATURES ARE JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND WITH A FEW HOURS LEFT UNTIL SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO FREEZING OR JUST BELOW IN MUCH OF THIS AREA AND HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE THIS AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR FREEZING ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WARNING AREA WITH THE COLDEST READINGS GENERALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS. THIS WILL ALLOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE HILL COUNTRY.
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS SERN U. SMALL CRAFT FLAGS ON TRACK AS NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH SUSTAINED WINDS PUSHING INTO THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE AND FURTHER SLIGHT INCREASE TONIGHT IN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE.
Scattered showers this morning are quickly exiting the area to the east as a cold front pushes through.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION. BUT IT HAS HAPPENED ON THE FIRST NIGHT OF FRESH HIGH PRESSURE WHICH IS ALMOST A MUST AS THEY ARE FIRST WITH ANY SORT OF RETURN FLOW BY THE SECOND NIGHT.
THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH MIDWEEK.
344 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING.
501 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015 THE 08Z MSL ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. A DEVELOPING CYCLONE COULD BE SEEN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC NEAR 41. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THOUGH 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. A MILD AND DRY START TO THE WEEK IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES.
COLD AIR IS INVADING THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF LAST EVES COLD FRONT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE ADVANCING MID LVL TROUGH. AND RIDGE ZONES AS WLY FLOW DEEPENS. THAT TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THOUGH WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING. SCT MRNG SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE RIDGES.
LATEST IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 900 AM DEPICTS A FULL LATITUDINAL MID AND UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. CENTER OF A NEAR 1030 MB COLD ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE IS ORIENTED FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO EAST TEXAS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN NEW YORK DOWN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SOUTHWEST GULF. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST GULF BETWEEN BUOYS 42023 AND 42003. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT ABRUPTLY TO NORTH AND BECOME STRONG UPON PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED BETWEEN 10 PM AND 2 AM ACROSS THE LENGTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS. A COLD FRONT IS SET TO PUSH THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT.
920 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS DURING MIDDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS PAST. WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS NUMBERS MOST LOCATIONS.
The coldest night of the season so far is underway early this morning, with 2 AM temperatures in the low to mid 20s. Breezy southwest winds will continue through mid week, along with a corresponding increase in daytime highs as high pressure pushes into the Mid Atlantic.
EXPECT A COLD START TO THE DAY AS EARLY MORNING TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. AND THUS WARMER TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. AS AN UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER THE WRN ROCKIES. AT THIS POINT PREFER THE ECMWF WHICH IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN PUSHING THE BELOW FREEZING TEMPS INTO CENTRAL KS AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRI.
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 90 PORTIONS OF THE ESCARPMENT. TEMPERATURES ARE JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND WITH A FEW HOURS LEFT UNTIL SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO FREEZING OR JUST BELOW IN MUCH OF THIS AREA AND HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE THIS AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR FREEZING ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WARNING AREA WITH THE COLDEST READINGS GENERALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS. THIS WILL ALLOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE HILL COUNTRY.
1030 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS WILL BUILD BUILD EAST TODAY AND PERSIST OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. MU TEENS IN THE HIGHLANDS.
330 AM MST SUN NOV 22 2015 NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DECREASE TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER AIR WITH IT RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.
FALLING OFF QUICKLY BEHIND THE RECENTLY DEPARTED COLD FRONT. MADE THE CALL TO EXPAND THE FREEZE WARNING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF I-20 AS THE MORE RURAL LOCATIONS IN THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. DID LOWER TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY OVER MOST LOCATIONS TO MATCH FREEZING CRITERIA OVER THE WARNING AREA.
A PLEASANT NOVEMBER DAY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD, THIS WILL EQUATE TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
WITH SKIES CLEARING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH WILL OFFER COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST THIS WEEK WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS IT RETREATS.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 46 27 51 31 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 44 23 48 29 / 10 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 44 23 48 29 / 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 42 20 43 26 / 10 0 0 0.
301 AM MST SUN NOV 22 2015 BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. MONDAY THE BROAD RIDGE IS OVERHEAD BRINGING FURTHER WARMING TO THE SLOPES WHILE THE VALLEYS REMAIN NESTLED IN THEIR INVERSIONS.
545 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS DURING MIDDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS PAST. WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS NUMBERS MOST LOCATIONS.
1/2KM WINDS ARE ALSO GOING TO APPROACH 40KTS IN SOME OF THE HIGHER END GUIDANCE. SO HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW 40S.
WIND IS BACKING SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS. COLD AIR IS INVADING THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF LAST EVES COLD FRONT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE ADVANCING MID LVL TROUGH. AND RIDGE ZONES AS WLY FLOW DEEPENS. THAT TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THOUGH WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING. SCT MRNG SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE RIDGES.
324 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2015 MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
ENJOY THE PLEASANT FALL DAY! FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. /ISSUED 530 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA KEEPING SKIES CLEAR THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. ALONG THE HIGHWAY 90 PORTIONS OF THE ESCARPMENT. TEMPERATURES ARE JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND WITH A FEW HOURS LEFT UNTIL SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO FREEZING OR JUST BELOW IN MUCH OF THIS AREA AND HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE THIS AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR FREEZING ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WARNING AREA WITH THE COLDEST READINGS GENERALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS. THIS WILL ALLOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE HILL COUNTRY.
639 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
936 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 SOME LIGHT FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE COMING TO AN END SHORTLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH WILL OFFER COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST THIS WEEK WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS IT RETREATS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND BRINGING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS RIDGING ACROSS THE INTERRIOR WEST. WITH A SMALL CLOSED LOW ISOLATED FROM THE MAIN FLOW OFF THE OREGON COAST. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATES MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
A BAND OF SHALLOW SHOWERS EXISTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOUT WHERE THEY ARE NOW FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.
BUT IT HAS HAPPENED ON THE FIRST NIGHT OF FRESH HIGH PRESSURE WHICH IS ALMOST A MUST AS THEY ARE FIRST WITH ANY SORT OF RETURN FLOW BY THE SECOND NIGHT.
A STEADY NORTH WIND OF 10 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.
The upcoming holiday may actually be the warmest day of the week ahead of the next strong cold front to move into the region the following night. with a deep positive tilt upper trough in the west and SW flow over the Plains downstream. The upstream ridging over western Canada will allow cold air to come spilling south in advance of the upper trough. a strong modified arctic cold front is expected to plunge thru the region Thanksgiving night.
340 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2015 CORRECTED WEATHER GRIDS FOR FOG AREAS FOR FREEZING FOG ADVISORY.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE ARKLAMISS WITH THE FREEZING LINE DOWN TO ROUGHLY A CLEVELAND TO GREENWOOD TO MACON LINE IN NORTH CENTRAL MS. STRONGER WINDS/MIXING IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE GREENVILLE AREA. BUT WEST OF THE DELTA SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE BASTROP LA TO CROSSETT AR AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHILE MORNING TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S.
A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA. THE COLD FRONT. WITH THE HELP OF A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. FALL IS ALMOST HERE! AS THE COLD FRONT HEADS TO EASTERN CUBA. A HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MAINLAND FLORIDA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES MONDAY MORNING. WARM FRONT SCOOTS PAST MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MIDWEEK. COLD FRONT CROSSES TO END THE WEEK. MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH AXIS LAGGING THE SFC FRONT DOES NOT CROSS UNTIL THIS EVENING. AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH DOES NOT CROSS UNTIL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE COLD ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE THERMAL TROUGH PERSISTS THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
529 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015 WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS ARKANSAS. /ISSUED 344 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015/ MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE TEMPS BELOW FREEZING THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF AR. MONDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL ALSO BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING OVER MANY LOCATIONS. TAKING TEMPS BELOW FREEZING. THE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL U.
934 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS DURING MIDDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS PAST. WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS NUMBERS MOST LOCATIONS.
626 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH WEAK 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES. WILL MENTION VALUES ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE MAINLY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30. WITH SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE COOLER VALLEYS. VERY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR CWA. AND BEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SO EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 30S WARMER VALLEYS. WHICH MAY KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER.
901 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z TONIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO FANFARE OTHER THAN WINDS BECOMING NW TO N BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. AS THIS SYSTEM BROADENS AND MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION IT WILL FORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS BY MORNING. HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN U. LEESIDE TROUGHING SETS UP AND WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPERATURES.
/issued 1256 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/ WV imagery shows NW flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, on the eastern side of a broad, upper-lvl ridge off the west coast. To the north, a trough is traversing the U. /Canadian border, and will send a cold front thru the region Sunday.
/ISSUED 318 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/ AS THE DEPARTING UA LOW WHICH BROUGHT BREEZY AND COOL CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS AFTN. RIGHT ON ITS HEELS IS A WEAK UA RIDGE PASSING OVERHEAD. THIS UA RIDGE IS PROMOTING INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND THIS. HOWEVER A W-SW WIND COMPONENT IS A WARMER WIND COMPONENT WHICH WILL MITIGATE EXTREME COOLING. THE UA RIDGE WILL HAVE DEPARTED AND FLOW ALOFT WILL COMMENCE TO VEER TO THE NW COURTESY OF THE AMPLIFICATION OF UA RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. WILL SEND DOWN A SLIGHTLY BREEZY COLD FRONT /15-20 MPH/ TO ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING AND IS PROGGED TO CLEAR THE REGION BY LATE AFTN /MAJORITY OF MODELS APPEAR TO AGREE WITH THIS TIMING/.
644 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 40S OR +5-10F ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEB. CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
555 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 SSW/SW FLOW WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND INCREASE INTO SUNDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS MAY CHANGE LATE IN THE FORECAST AS THE TROUGH ENCROACHES ON THE TERMINALS AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO VEER TO A SOLID SW DIRECTION. QUIET WEATHER TO PERSIST THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT.
WILL KEEP A TAD OF POPS GOING OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS TONIGHT ONLY. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE MIDWEST TROUGH MOVES EAST.
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MID ATLC SWWD TO THE SE CONUS GENERATING STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN FL AND THE WRN ATLC. A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL LOW PRES SYSTEM ARE SWINGING ESE THROUGH THE TROUGH OVER SRN MS AND NW GA AT 02Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW OVER OUR NRN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AS STRONG LIFT OCCURS NW OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST.
649 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 40S OR +5-10F ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEB. CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.