Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(This evening through Thursday) Quiet weather will continue across the area the next 24 hours, with the extension of the subtropical ridge over the region. Temperatures will be a little warmer on Thursday, with afternoon highs in the lower and middle 90s. Lows tonight will be mainly in the lower 70s. (Thursday night through next Wednesday) The upper level ridge will expand eastward across the Four Corners region and Rockies over the weekend, with the eastern edge of the ridge nosing into west Texas.
1140 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Cold front lays along a line from southern Nebraska to Cheyenne to Rawlins and finally to Evanston this morning. Upper air pattern shows us with a trough of low pressure over Montana and northern Wyoming with upper area of high pressure over Arizona and southern California. Upper ridge builds back over western Wyoming Thursday as surface boundary begins to shifts northeast again.
Storms will develop over the southeast coast of Florida and inland areas and traverse westward through the day with the highest coverage near the coast by mid-afternoon and continuing through early evening. High pressure ridging over Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico will keep easterly winds around 10-15 knots over the gulf waters through the week and into the weekend. Easterly winds prevail as high pressure ridges over northern Florida.
Temperatures will hover in the low 60s with cloud cover slowly scattering out by Thursday morning. By Thursday afternoon temperatures return to the lower 80s with clearing skies.
A cold front that extends from southern MN to western KS will shift east-southeast through tomorrow reaching from southern IA to the KS Flint Hills by early Thursday afternoon.
240 PM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021 The Bermuda High will ridge into the forecast area through the weekend providing a typical summertime pattern.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley continue to lay under a weakness in the broad mid level ridge across the southern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure over the the southern East Coast and northeast Gulf of Mexico will allow light to moderate southeast winds to persist through the short term, allowing Gulf moisture to continue to stream across the region. and will likely repeat tomorrow, but perhaps on a lesser scale with PoPs scaling back a bit as the mid level ridge tries to strengthen slightly overhead. Temperatures will be near normal both tonight and Thursday night with lows in the mid to upper 70s and only slightly below normal Thursday afternoon with highs in the lower to mid 90s (except along the coast, where highs will be in the mid to upper 80s).
The mid level trough axis from northern Coahuila into south-central Texas will slowly drift northwest to the Texas Big Bend to Edwards Plateau Thursday night. Mid level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico will shift to the west and be over the coastal waters Thursday night. Rain chances will diminish Thursday night as the mid level ridge moves into the area.
233 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021 The upper level trough that will bring some clouds and a slight chance for thunderstorms across the extreme southwest Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico later tonight, is currently moving ESE past the Four Corners region. Weak vorticity advection along the southern portion of the trough will keep coverage of any convection limited in our area. Widely scattered convection is expected to be ongoing Thursday evening, with the highest coverage/best rain chances extending from the northern portions of the South Plains and Rolling plains northward through the Panhandles. Forecast storm motion is under 15 kts, and the wet-bulb freezing level is relatively high resulting in a deep warm cloud layer, so locally heavy rainfall will be a threat.
1251 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021 (Today and tonight) The upper-level ridge continues it's firm hold over the Desert Southwest with the eastern edge still over west Texas.
256 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021 A cold front and its parent upper level support will migrate to the south and east with time, approaching the PAH FA from the north and west, thru the workweek's end.
Focus shifts to deepening low pressure moving from northern IA into central WI this evening. Low level jet pivots to the east and south of the area but wl continue precipitation chances across the southern CWA due to lingering mid-level low pressure trof and nearby surface boundary. Kavinsky (Issued 230 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021) Thursday night through Wednesday: Blocking high pressure building into the central CONUS and southern Canada will be bringing mostly quiet conditions to southern WI for the bulk of this period.
Have made some adjustments to temps base on the frontal position and cloud cover, with highs only in the mid 70s near the SD border, but still in the lower 90s near the KS border. And then elevated storms north of the southward sinking cold front will be possible overnight. We gradually warm again thereafter as high pressure ridging works in the region. Complicated aviation forecast with a frontal boundary moving through the TAF locations, the potential for strong and possibly severe thunderstorms at KLNK/KOMA 23-03z, and also the potential for MVFR and IFR ceilings behind the cold front that could linger into Thursday morning.
Avoid slot canyons and flash flood prone areas! Storms look to initiate around the noon hour along the high terrain and move off to the southeast through the afternoon/evening.
I'll go for afternoon highs a degree or two warmer, but tomorrow should be pretty similar to today.
Convection is expected to end between 04Z and 06Z this evening as it drift into our southern zones and encounters cooler and more stable conditions. High pressure strengthens over Rockies this weekend with drying and warming conditions setting in. Diurnally driven convection becomes more isolated in nature and confined to the higher terrain near the divide and over our southern zones. The ridge axis is expected to shift eastward by mid-week, which will open the door for another burst of monsoonal moisture.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 91 72 90 72 / 20 30 10 50 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 91 71 92 71 / 20 20 10 50 20 Oak Ridge, TN 69 90 70 90 70 / 20 20 10 50 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 89 67 90 68 / 20 20 0 40 20.
227 PM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Easterly upslope flow east of the Laramie Range behind yesterday's cold frontal passage along with southwest flow farther west has setup a dryline boundary along the South Laramie Range. CU fields developing over the high terrain the past few hours has initiated a couple storms early this afternoon and will continue to do so along the CO/WY border into the early evening. Low level inversion suggests storms might struggle once removed from the higher terrain until later this afternoon, otherwise a fairly moist profile was noted. Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees warmer Thursday afternoon with the chance for storm development along the Laramie Range once again, however coverage should be more isolated than today.
Surface and upper ridging to our east will help continue a mean southerly flow across the region into the evening.
252 PM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Current surface analysis places broad area of high pressure over the SE CONUS while area of low pressure is situated across the Central Plains. Under southwesterly flow in the low-levels, temperatures have warmed into the lower to mid 80s this afternoon with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. As we move into tonight, quiet weather will continue under high pressure along with overnight temperatures near climatological normals in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Thursday will then feature weather similar to today, with slightly warmer temperatures as highs top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
1156 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over south central NE, with frontal boundary extending across southern NE to far southern WY. As the upper trough moves east-southeast across the northern Plains today, isolated to scattered showers and some thunderstorms are expected to continue across much of the area through at least the midday hours.
230 PM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Current surface analysis shows high pressure building into the forecast area from the west. Upper level analysis has a longwave ridge over the Rockies with a negatively tilted trough extending from the Great Lakes into the Southern Plains. Temperatures are cool, with readings ranging from the lower 60s in the higher hills to the mid 70s on the plains.
Thursday, a tongue of relatively drier air will pivot around the base of a ridge centered off the Carolina coast. Then, a weak wave looks to pivot around the aforementioned ridge with an increase in moisture, which may support slightly higher PoPs Thursday night. Thereafter the ridge off the Carolinas will become absorbed by the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic, allowing the subtropical ridge to build westward.
Dewpoints in the lower 70s will aid in nudging heat indices into the upper 90s. Depending if this layer of smoke stays over the region or shifts east, this may impact our high temperature for the day, keeping us a few degrees cooler than anticipated.
124 PM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Bermuda high pressure will maintain seasonably hot and humid conditions, with afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day through this weekend. High pressure, both aloft and at the surface, will sit along/just off the Carolina coast through tonight. Aside from the diurnal airmass thunderstorms developing this afternoon, this disturbance combined with a strengthening Piedmont trough will enhance convective activity and provide a focused area over which it will occur. A Piedmont trough will again set up over the area on Thursday. Otherwise, expect the diurnal showers/storms with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s to persist.
Clouds will also be on the decrease late this afternoon and into tonight, giving way to a mostly clear sky (with the exception of any smokey haze that may linger) with lows in the lower 50s to lower 60s. As the western ridge axis slowly nudges closer to our area on Thursday, we will see a mostly sunny sky. Expect highs similar to today, but perhaps a tad bit warmer in some locations, in the lower 80s to lower 90s.
Winds will remain elevated tonight at FST, INK, MAF, HOB due to the low level jet. (Today through Thursday afternoon) West Texas and southeastern New Mexico will remain caught between upper level high pressure systems over the southeastern U.
Weak high pressure over interior NorCal today transitions to weak troughing overnight and into the weekend.
CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 89 71 90 72 / 20 30 10 60 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 89 71 91 71 / 20 20 10 50 20 Oak Ridge, TN 67 89 69 90 70 / 20 20 10 40 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 86 66 89 68 / 20 20 10 40 20.
These clouds were keeping temperatures down for many locales, with temperatures valid 14/21z running 10-15 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago.
744 PM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Increasing sunshine will allow for very warm conditions Thursday, with some valley high temperatures approaching 90 degrees under a weak area of high pressure to our south.
A cold front and its parent upper level support will migrate to the south and east with time, approaching the PAH FA from the north and west, thru the workweek's end.
High pressure will slowly build across the region through the remainder of the week bringing a slight warming trend.
636 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021 (This evening through Thursday) Quiet weather will continue across the area the next 24 hours, with the extension of the subtropical ridge over the region. Temperatures will be a little warmer on Thursday, with afternoon highs in the lower and middle 90s. Lows tonight will be mainly in the lower 70s. (Thursday night through next Wednesday) The upper level ridge will expand eastward across the Four Corners region and Rockies over the weekend, with the eastern edge of the ridge nosing into west Texas.
High pressure ridging over Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico will keep easterly winds around 10-15 knots over the gulf waters through the week and into the weekend.
623 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA were noted across the central and southern terminals this evening /will maintain a precip mention at KJAN, KHKS, KPIB and KHBG/, though much lesser coverage than yesterday due to an upper level ridge slowly nosing in from the east. With the jet axis and associated primary progressive pattern well north of the area, our weather will continue to be dominated by deep layer ridging. Some scattered patchy fog is possible in the southeast tonight as lows fall into the lower 70s F under partly cloudy to mostly clear skies before rising into the lower 90s F Thursday with sky conditions ranging from partly cloudy in most locations to mostly cloudy near showers and storms.
812 PM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021 The Bermuda High will ridge into the forecast area through the weekend providing a typical summertime pattern.
539 PM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Easterly upslope flow east of the Laramie Range behind yesterday's cold frontal passage along with southwest flow farther west has setup a dryline boundary along the South Laramie Range. CU fields developing over the high terrain the past few hours has initiated a couple storms early this afternoon and will continue to do so along the CO/WY border into the early evening. Low level inversion suggests storms might struggle once removed from the higher terrain until later this afternoon, otherwise a fairly moist profile was noted. Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees warmer Thursday afternoon with the chance for storm development along the Laramie Range once again, however coverage should be more isolated than today.
1046 PM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021 The Bermuda High will ridge into the forecast area through the weekend providing a typical summertime pattern.
512 PM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Current surface analysis shows high pressure building into the forecast area from the west. Upper level analysis has a longwave ridge over the Rockies with a negatively tilted trough extending from the Great Lakes into the Southern Plains. Temperatures are cool, with readings ranging from the lower 60s in the higher hills to the mid 70s on the plains.
Thunderstorms will be expected tomorrow (late-morning through the evening), with the highest chances being for the southern terminals.
638 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021 High pressure will keep clouds limited over the area through the period.
Current surface analysis places broad area of high pressure over the SE CONUS while area of low pressure is situated across the Central Plains. Under southwesterly flow in the low-levels, temperatures have warmed into the lower to mid 80s this afternoon with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. As we move into tonight, quiet weather will continue under high pressure along with overnight temperatures near climatological normals in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Thursday will then feature weather similar to today, with slightly warmer temperatures as highs top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
1034 PM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Currently - Deep layered ridging is in place across the broader area with the surface through lower level ridge located over the southeastern United States and northern Florida. Despite the ridging, PWAT remains high near 2 inches. Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to dominate Keys weather through the overnight period, maintaining gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. A ridge across the southeast and northern Florida will maintain gentle to moderate northeast to easterly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
Initially the High pressure will be centered over east central Minnesota which will bring in a northerly wind over the arrowhead of Minnesota into northwestern Wisconsin. As the high pressure moves eastward winds will switch around to the south giving the region some relief from the smoke.
1049 PM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021 The Bermuda High will ridge into the forecast area through the weekend providing a typical summertime pattern.
1013 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Latest short term model data continues to suggest that a mid-level shear axis (currently in place across the region) will begin to disintegrate and lift northward overnight, in the strengthening gradient between a subtropical ridge centered off the southeastern Atlantic Coast and an amplifying longwave trough over the northern Plains. Partly cloudy skies and slightly warmer conditions are forecast on Friday. Even warmer tomorrow night with lows around 70. Upper ridging that has been off of the east coast should break down more during Friday, partially in response to a trough nearing from the west. The amplifying trough and better moisture convergence should bring better chances of convection on Friday.
220 AM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021 An upper level low pressure trough will carve out across the southern plains today, just east of the upper level high pressure ridge over the southwest. Appears enough moisture and instability will pool within this trough and with weak low level convergence to support a low chance for thunderstorms mainly later this afternoon and evening. RMcQueen The mid/upper-level anticyclone, currently centered over the Great Basin, is forecast to amplify and latitudinally expand on Friday as a pair of upper-level lows deepen over the northeastern Pacific Ocean and the eastern Canadian Shield, resulting in the early stages of a blocking pattern set to unfold over the course of the next several days.
Models are showing warmer temps advecting into the area with 850mb temps increasing about 2. This would translate into about a 4F rise in highs which is right in line with NBM guidance, though still a couple of degrees cooler than MET/MAV. Apparently guidance is still struggling with the high soil and vegetation moisture content. These warmer temperatures should also help cause a few more showers and thunderstorms to develop in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains today and tomorrow where 20-30 PoPs are in the forecast.
329 AM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Thunderstorm potential today - Chance of Southern Michigan heavy rain Friday night -- Thunderstorm potential today -- Elevated storms this morning in Central Michigan are forming off 925-850 mb moisture transport convergence and closer proximity to the upper level trough, and repeating batches of heavy downpours could cause minor flooding this morning, particularly in Mason and Lake counties where soil moisture is relatively high. The orientation of the cold front or mid-level focus for storm development relative to the 0-3 km shear vector is closer to parallel than it is perpendicular, so this would also limit the potential for a stronger QLCS to develop.
Upper air pattern will change little for this forecast period with a ridge over the Rockies moving into the plains and a trough in the ern U. What this will mean is dry for this forecast period and warmer. In the extended, the 500 mb ridge will remain over the Rockies with troughing across the ern U. The upper Great Lakes continues to be on the periphery of the ridge. Conditions should then slowly improve to MVFR after sunrise Thursday and then to VFR by afternoon as high pressure and drier air moves in from the west. A low pressure moving through northern Lake Michigan tonight should bring some northeasterly to northerly gusts up to 20 knots across far southeastern Lake Superior early Thursday.
Latest short term model data continues to suggest that a mid-level shear axis (currently in place across the region) will begin to disintegrate and lift northward overnight, in the strengthening gradient between a subtropical ridge centered off the southeastern Atlantic Coast and an amplifying longwave trough over the northern Plains. Partly cloudy skies and slightly warmer conditions are forecast on Friday. Even warmer tomorrow night with lows around 70. Upper ridging that has been off of the east coast should break down more during Friday, partially in response to a trough nearing from the west. The amplifying trough and better moisture convergence should bring better chances of convection on Friday.
1233 AM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021 Dry weather is expected briefly today and tonight before rain chances return on Friday ahead of a cold front. A few isolated showers continue to cross the Fayette and Westmoreland ridges early this morning. However, these should be the last meteorological returns on radar through the near term as dry weather with high pressure ensues. High pressure will foster southwesterly warm/moist return flow today, providing hot, hazy, and humid conditions this afternoon.
Additional strong to isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible along a cold front/boundary across northern portions of Wisconsin. Overnight low are expected to be in the 50s north-central to the low to mid 60s elsewhere.
The aforementioned trough will unfortunately open the gates for showers all weekend.
340 AM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021 Dry weather is expected briefly today and tonight before rain chances return on Friday ahead of a cold front. High pressure today will foster southwesterly warm/moist return flow, providing hot, hazy, and humid conditions this afternoon.
Timing the trough axis and surface front, precipitation is expected to clear southern Wisconsin late this morning. Another low pressure system is then expected to develop along the trough axis and lift northeast through the Chicago area on Friday. High pressure will be centered to the north aiding in east to northeast flow over the area bringing with it drier air. There are numerous solutions with this low with the GFS being the most aggressive bringing precipitation into far southeast Wisconsin. Dew points will also slowly improve heading into Friday with values dropping into the low 60s to upper 50s.
Tonight Through Friday Basically a persistence forecast across the area from today through Thursday as ridging aloft and at the surface remains in place across the SE US. The H500 ridge in place across the southeast will begin to break down as troughing across the middle of the country shifts eastward. At the surface, a cold front to the north of the state will begin to work its way toward AR. Widespread temperature relief isn't expected on Friday, but locations across northern Arkansas should see highs several degrees cooler than Thursday.
Current temperatures are in the low 70s and winds are light/calm as high pressure remains across the SE US.
Longwave ridge centered over the western conus will continue to amplify while another ridge centered over the western Atlantic will contract. This will allow troughing to dig down into the Mid South Region, with showers/storms spreading into Arkansas by the end of the period as the surface system inches closer to the state.
High temps will be warmer east of the divide with upper 80s to lower 90s east of the divide and 80s in the west. A strong ridge will build over the area increasing temperatures into the mid to upper 90s through the weekend.
354 AM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021 Today and Tonight: Early morning surface analysis had a >1020mb ridge nosing across our southern zones from the east. Together these features will work to limit coverage of convection today but satellite derived total PWAT product still had PWATs over our CWA around an inch and three quarters and our dew points were running in the lower 70s.
However, upper level ridging to our east will gradually shift our way throughout the day which will help keep a lid on convection today. We will continue the trend of lowering rain chances as we head into Friday as upper ridging and drier air (PWATs falling to near 1.
High temps on Thursday will be slightly cooler in eastern Oregon with little change in southwest Idaho. Slightly cooler through Friday as a weak Pacific trough comes inland and suppresses the hot upper ridge southward. The trough will act on mid-level moisture to the east of our CWA for a slight chance of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon in eastern Valley County, ID.