Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
151 PM EDT Wed Apr 7 2021 Aviation - Upper Low Trundles Closer Bringing Increasing Rain Chances - Negative Tilt Upper Trough with Cyclogenesis for the Weekend - Upper Low Trundles Closer Bringing Increasing Rain Chances We expect some diurnal enhancement of shower and thunderstorms this afternoon as the upper low over Kansas slowly shifts east and heights begin to fall across our area. This trend continues tonight into Thursday as the low moves into Wisconsin with an area of rain and embedded thunder still expected to move into Lower Michigan from the southwest on Thursday.
1006 AM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021 Deformation zone rain will continue across most of northeast Minnesota today extending from a potent upper level low across southern Kansas. With daytime heating into the 60s and lower 70s with 50s dewpoints, thunderstorms are expected to be supported into northwest Wisconsin and towards the Hinckley area of Minnesota, with some potential for elevated storms from the Brainerd Lakes to the Twin Ports above the low level stable layer. Periods of showers and non-severe thunderstorms are expected for the next several days as an area of low pressure slowly moves across the region.
250 PM EDT Wed Apr 7 2021 High pressure remains centered across the southeastern states with a weak stationary front across the area. Another area of low pressure approaches from the west later in the week. Another warm and sunny day expected as high pressure over the Southeastern US remains in control. This should allow for mainly light southerly to southwesterly flow today, which should allow readings to climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s across VA/NC but slightly cooler over the Delmarva with readings in the lower 70s as they are closer to the next back door front expected late tonight into Thursday. Slightly cooler on Thursday with increasing clouds and stronger onshore flow due to the high from New England ridging down the Atlantic coast.
1239 PM EDT Wed Apr 7 2021 High pressure builds over the area through Thursday, while a slow moving storm system approaches from the Midwest.
These are both likely being enhanced by an increase in the low level jet after midnight tonight.
159 PM EDT Wed Apr 7 2021 High pressure remains centered across the southeastern states with a weak stationary front across the area. Another area of low pressure approaches from the west later in the week. Another warm and sunny day expected as high pressure over the Southeastern US remains in control. This should allow for mainly light southerly to southwesterly flow today, which should allow readings to climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s across VA/NC but slightly cooler over the Delmarva with readings in the lower 70s as they are closer to the next back door front expected late tonight into Thursday. Slightly cooler on Thursday with increasing clouds and stronger onshore flow due to the high from New England ridging down the Atlantic coast.
After 08/03Z a band of showers and storms ahead of a cold front will move into Middle Tennessee.
1111 AM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021 Swath of light to moderate rainfall continues to wrap back to the west across northeast and portions of central SD as low pressure remains stationary across northwest IA. Winds will remain breezy out of the north today, diminishing across central SD on Thursday as the low pulls east. Min RH will fall to right around 20 percent this afternoon depending on how warm the high climbs as the clouds clear. A low pressure system over Wisconsin Thursday night will continue spreading pcpn into the far eastern portion of the CWA.
Cold front currently located along a Miami to Fort Gibson to McAlester line will continue to push east throughout the morning. Skies will clear across southeast Oklahoma this afternoon, while at least scattered cloud cover will stick around across the northern portions due to wrap around moisture on the backside of the upper low.
Upper ridge will bring mostly sunny and warmer weather today. Strong cold front overnight and early Thursday morning will be followed by gusty west/northwest winds and about 15 degrees cooling Thursday.
251 PM MDT Wed Apr 7 2021 Current radar imagery indicates that much of the precipitation has moved off towards the east of the Nebraska Panhandle as the upper level low continues to track further into western KS. Milder conditions expected to return across the CWA beginning tomorrow as upper level ridging pushes east across the region. Daytime high temperatures expected to be in the low 60s west of the Laramie range, and in the upper 60s for the Nebraska Panhandle. With the passing of a brief 500 mb ridging, the next cold front is expected to dig across the region Thursday night.
High pressure will be the dominant weather feature for the foreseeable future bringing above normal daytime temperatures and typical springtime breezes each afternoon. High pressure building in across the area will bring warming temperatures, clear skies, and continued dry conditions. The strongest winds will be on Thursday, when an area of low pressure passes by well to our north.
Temperatures will be close to seasonal average, but on the cooler side. This pattern of temperatures, winds, and stratus is expected through the end of the week as weak ridging persists over our CWA.
After 10 PM, with the 500mb trough remaining will filled in, as it lifts east-northeast of the region, will result in additional showers and isolated thunder overnight through Thursday.
819 AM PDT Wed Apr 7 2021 The arrival of a cold front this afternoon will produce gusty southwest winds across the Columbia Basin, West Plains, and the Palouse.
Cold front approaching the area this afternoon is initiating convection across East Texas and Northwest Louisiana. There could be some lingering showers in the coastal waters tomorrow morning, otherwise dry through the remainder of the short term as cold front stalls north of the forecast area.
243 PM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021 Rain showers will begin to redevelop over the next few hours across central KS as the upper low approaches, then will gradually shift eastward tonight through Thursday.
A potent upper low is tracking across eastern Kansas with a front extending south into the Arklatex. Deep layer shear will increase later this afternoon into the evening as the front approaches and the low level jet increases. The front and precip push east by sunrise Thursday as the dry slot pushes in south of the deep upper low moving into the middle MS Valley.
114 PM EDT Wed Apr 7 2021 High pressure crosses today.
Larger trough with a stronger closed mid/upper center location in the souther plains and a secondary center further north over SD/southern MN. Eventually a second wave interacts and the initial deformation zone pivots along an inverted trough axis tonight and Thursday, with lingering (lighter) rain.
Winds are expected to increase especially across the far eastern plains closer to the low over Kansas with gusts up to 50 mph. At this time the closed low is pushing into Kansas with increasing subsidence behind it. Temperatures will start a gradual rebound today with highs in the lower to mid 60s for the Denver metro and eastern plains with 30s and 40s in the high country. For tonight, the gradient will continue to weaken as the low pushes well east with winds diminishing. Roller coaster week ahead for Colorado with a disturbance about every other day to provide for cooler temperatures and windy conditions. On Thursday there will be a weak ridge of high pressure over Colorado with a moderate northwest flow aloft. Expect dry conditions and warmer temperatures as 700 mb readings rise to around +4C at Denver.
Temperatures will trend seasonably cooler with periods of rain from late week into the weekend. High pressure building south from New England should ensure fair weather Thursday. The southeast flow off of the Atlantic should result in a slightly cooler day than those recently with highs between 65-70F.
A ridge axis is currently aligned from the Great Lakes down through the southern Appalachians. At the surface, high pressure is centered across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, with ridging retreating across the Appalachians. Further west, broader low pressure is found across the middle Mississippi Valley, with a cold front positioned to the south into the southern Plains. The models are clustered well regarding the upper level low across the center of the CONUS.
Swath of light to moderate rainfall continues to wrap back to the west across northeast and portions of central SD as low pressure remains stationary across northwest IA. Winds will remain breezy out of the north today, diminishing across central SD on Thursday as the low pulls east. Min RH will fall to right around 20 percent this afternoon depending on how warm the high climbs as the clouds clear. A low pressure system over Wisconsin Thursday night will continue spreading pcpn into the far eastern portion of the CWA.
307 PM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021 Showers and thunderstorms have just about cleared the forecast area at this time as the cold front has moved just to our east.
An upper low will move slowly east across Kansas today. Thursday, wrap around showers will be possible mainly from southern IL into southwest IN as the upper low ends up over western IL by Thursday evening.
In this area between the outer rain band and the inner low stratus near the low center, temperatures soared in the mid 70s while surrounding areas remained in the mid 60s. By 1 pm the surface cold front was across western Iowa, where Denison dropped to 52 degrees with the next county over remaining in the upper 60s.
122 PM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021 A mid/upper low over the TX/OK Panhandle region will lift to southern Lake Michigan through Thursday. Temperatures will sneak into the 70s for one more day, generally along and east of Interstate 35 as a warm front lifts into the southeastern portion of the area.
245 PM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021 WV imagery shows the upper trough now over central KS, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under dry, NW flow aloft.
616 PM EDT Wed Apr 7 2021 Low pressure will exit east of the Maritimes tonight.
319 PM MDT Wed Apr 7 2021 Downslope flow and clear skies continue to define today as temperatures climb into the 60s, and winds speeds bump into the low 20s across south-central Montana. Another interesting system moves into the area tomorrow and brings with it a prominent cold front. This cold front looks to enter the foothills west of Billings around noon, and reach far SE Montana in the evening. That being said, a strong temperature gradient still looks present with this front to swiftly bring cooler temperatures behind it. Most areas will receive lower-end amounts of QPF staying under a quarter of an inch in the lower elevation, with 4-8 inches of new snow possible in the mountains.
638 PM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021 BIG PICTURE: upper level, closed low (and fairly stacked) progged to rotate north/northeast out of the southern plains today. A lot of differences in the models' assorted ensemble members, keeping confidence on the low end.
731 PM EDT Wed Apr 7 2021 A prolonged period of dry weather with a gradual warming trend will continue through the end of the week as high pressure builds overhead.
Current radar imagery indicates that much of the precipitation has moved off towards the east of the Nebraska Panhandle as the upper level low continues to track further into western KS. Milder conditions expected to return across the CWA beginning tomorrow as upper level ridging pushes east across the region. Daytime high temperatures expected to be in the low 60s west of the Laramie range, and in the upper 60s for the Nebraska Panhandle. With the passing of a brief 500 mb ridging, the next cold front is expected to dig across the region Thursday night.
1004 PM EDT Wed Apr 7 2021 A prolonged period of dry weather with a gradual warming trend will continue through the end of the week as high pressure builds overhead.
713 PM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021 Tonight-Thursday: One more vorticity lobe will rotate around up upper low early this evening. Temperatures on Thursday will be highest in the west with abundant sunshine and downslope component, to the cooler air lingering in the far east.
While highs topped out in the low to mid 80s (upper 70s near the immediate coastline like SRQ), lower dewpoints in the upper 40s and 50s kept it feeling nice and pleasant.
622 PM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021 A cold front was in the process of making its way through the Ozarks this afternoon. Behind the front only a few lingering showers are expected with cooler temperatures and lingering cloud cover. The upper low will linger over the state and swing another piece of energy around the back side of the low.
/issued 245 PM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021/ WV imagery shows the upper trough now over central KS, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under dry, NW flow aloft.
High pressure remains in place today. A dry cold front will cross the state Thursday.
Rain showers will begin to redevelop over the next few hours across central KS as the upper low approaches, then will gradually shift eastward tonight through Thursday.
909 PM EDT Wed Apr 7 2021 High pressure will persist into Thursday then will retreat offshore.
625 PM MDT Wed Apr 7 2021 The slow-moving upper low over KS continued to foster a band of rain along the deformation zone over south-central SD this afternoon. The upper low will shift eastward this evening, finally bringing an end to the showers. A mild day is in store on Thursday ahead of the next upper trough.
1035 PM EDT Wed Apr 7 2021 An upper-level composite analysis reveals a midtropospheric short- wave ridge migrating eastward across the southeastern United States and eastern Gulf basin. Currently, air temperatures in most Keys island communities are in the lower 70s, with dewpoint temperatures in the vicinity of 60F. Available observations indicate east breezes blowing at a steady 15 knots over Keys coastal waters generally west of the Seven Mile Bridge, with slightly lesser winds speeds observed east of the Seven Mile Bridge. We expect the high pressure cell centered north of the Bahamas to maintain current intensity while advancing very slowly eastward during the next 12 hours.
Dewpoints have reached the lower to mid 60s across the region as temperatures have climbed into the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Rain area on the north and west side of the SD upper low will continue thru the evening from SE ND into north central MN in basically the same area it is now. Larger trough with a stronger closed mid/upper center location in the souther plains and a secondary center further north over SD/southern MN. Eventually a second wave interacts and the initial deformation zone pivots along an inverted trough axis tonight and Thursday, with lingering (lighter) rain.
716 PM EDT Wed Apr 7 2021 Rain chance, albeit with continued warmth, returns Thursday as low pressure approaches the region. Isolated showers ahead of an upper ridge axis, should end this eve as temperatures fall below convective thresholds. With the upr ridge axis progged to slide ovr the immediate area, a tranquil, warm eve and night may be expected with temperature about 15 to 20 degrees above the calculated-normals.
849 PM EDT Wed Apr 7 2021 Low pressure will exit east of the Maritimes tonight.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies are found across a majority of Southeast Texas early this afternoon with showers and thunderstorms that are associated with a cold front moving into our far northern counties. After the warm/muggy day today (highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s), look for temperatures to cool down behind the front with overnight lows expected to range from the low to mid 50s well inland to the low to mid 60s near/along the coast.
The exception will be directly under the low, where winds at KCAO won't be very gusty.
631 PM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021 The ongoing rain-snow deormation zone operating across wrn and ncntl Nebraska this afternoon will gradually decay as a strong upper low deepens across northeast Missouri this evening.
Latest upper level analysis revealed a compact but potent upper level low moving across central KS, with thunderstorms developing from eastern TX up through portions of IA just ahead of this feature. A strong 700mb jet was moving across the northeastern combined Panhandles in the wake of the upper low. The Wind Advisory in the northeast appears to be in good shape, so will keep it going through 22z, at which time winds should start to decrease as the upper low and attendant jet streaks shift away from the area. Tonight through tomorrow northwest flow aloft will become more zonal as an elongated southern stream flow develops ahead of a Pacific Northwest trough. This will result in a period of split flow across the western and central CONUS as the Pac Northwest trough moves across the Great Basin through Thursday Night.
Compact upper low, currently over eastern Kansas, will slowly shift east tonight into Thursday. /Issued 307 PM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021/ Showers and thunderstorms have just about cleared the forecast area at this time as the cold front has moved just to our east.
617 PM EDT Wed Apr 7 2021 High pressure builds over the area through Thursday, while a slow moving storm system approaches from the Midwest.
805 PM EDT Wed Apr 7 2021 Dry high pressure over the region will move offshore.
High temperatures will trend warmer in to the weekend. Foothill temperatures range from the 50s to 60s with the higher elevation mountain locations being in the upper 40s. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement high pressure will continue to build into the weekend leading to warming high temperatures and dry conditions.
927 PM EDT Wed Apr 7 2021 High pressure builds over the area through Thursday, while a slow moving storm system approaches from the Midwest.
601 PM EDT Wed Apr 7 2021 High pressure will persist into Thursday then will retreat offshore.
510 PM MDT Wed Apr 7 2021 Current radar imagery indicates that much of the precipitation has moved off towards the east of the Nebraska Panhandle as the upper level low continues to track further into western KS. Milder conditions expected to return across the CWA beginning tomorrow as upper level ridging pushes east across the region. Daytime high temperatures expected to be in the low 60s west of the Laramie range, and in the upper 60s for the Nebraska Panhandle. With the passing of a brief 500 mb ridging, the next cold front is expected to dig across the region Thursday night.
917 PM EDT Wed Apr 7 2021 Rain chance, albeit with continued warmth, returns Thursday as low pressure approaches the region. Recent radar VIL loop indicates an overall diminishing trend, and this should continue as temps fall below convective thresholds, and an upper ridge axis builds further across the region. With the upr ridge axis progged to slide ovr the immediate area overnight, a tranquil night may be expected with temperature about 15 to 20 degrees above the calculated-normals.
621 PM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021 Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be numerous tonight across central Illinois, as an upper level low moves east out of Kansas.
931 PM EDT Wed Apr 7 2021 Dry high pressure over the region will move offshore.
953 PM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021 Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be numerous tonight across central Illinois, as an upper level low moves east out of Kansas.
Suspect they can be taken down early as winds slacken off through late afternoon and especially early evening as the upper low pulls east. Atmosphere is still quite dry so seeing afternoon humidity values below critical thresholds across the lower elevations, so it will just be a matter of how strong winds blow as to whether critical fire weather conditions will be met.
A cold front will move across the forecast area today with gusty NW winds developing behind it. To the east, the cold front will be late enough in the afternoon for warm temperatures and low RH to develop today ahead of the front. The gusty NW winds in the late afternoon and early evening will combine with the low RH to create critical fire weather conditions.
1202 AM CDT Thu Apr 8 2021 Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be numerous tonight across central Illinois, as an upper level low moves east out of Kansas.
353 AM CDT Thu Apr 8 2021 As of 09Z Thursday morning the upper low is lifting north- northeastward across northeast KS/northwest MO. As the upper low progresses northeastward this evening, rain showers will end from southwest to northeast with dry conditions area- wide by midnight tonight.
116 AM MST Thu Apr 8 2021 Above normal temperatures will persist as the Desert Southwest remains under the influence of high pressure with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s across the lower deserts. A strong area of high pressure remains anchored across the Desert Southwest with a very dry atmospheric column. The system passing to the north will not have any effect on surface temperatures, which will once again climb into the low 90s.
Ridging aloft will continue to keep the forecast area dry today and afternoon temperatures in the middle to upper 70s across the San Joaquin Valley, which is a few degrees above normal for early April.
427 AM EDT Thu Apr 8 2021 Temperatures across the island chain are currently in the lower 70s with dewpoints in the lower 60s. High pressure, currently located near the Bahamas, will continue its trek to the southeast today, allowing winds to veer more southeasterly. Winds will increase tonight as low pressure forms over Texas and tightens the pressure gradient across the Keys.
Currently, low clouds persist across northeast Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas on the backside of the upper low centered near Kansas City. These clouds should diminish through the morning as the low pulls farther away from the area, leaving mostly sunny skies areawide during the afternoon.
(Today and tonight) Breezy southwest to west winds will develop across the area today, along with warmer temperatures. Abundant sunshine, coupled with a strengthening low level thermal ridge, will result in above normal temperatures today.
223 AM MDT Thu Apr 8 2021 A midlevel trough will be moving over the northern Rockies later today, which will increase the winds aloft. Deep mixing within the warmer than normal air mass will allow these winds to mix down to the surface this afternoon and evening. Localized subfreezing temperatures are possible in some of the lower valleys where vegetation is susceptible. The chance for lingering clouds and relatively low coverage of freezing temps are making it difficult to justify a warning. Tomorrow the trough crosses the Divide and cooler temperatures invade the forecast area. Highs will be 8-12 degrees cooler than today. The post-front flow in southwest Colorado will support critical fire weather yet again in the lower elevations during the afternoon.
An occluded mid-latitude cyclone was centered across northwest Missouri during the overnight hours, and this low will continue to slowly decay as it lifts northeast into the Upper Midwest region today and tonight. The low level winds will be out of the west-northwest, which is a classic downslope warming wind, so afternoon temperatures are expected to be in the lower-mid 70s across much of the southwest Kansas region.
1035 PM MDT Wed Apr 7 2021 High pressure remains in place today.
There is good agreement among the high-res rapid refresh models that showers will begin to reach our SW counties around 09Z, so will drop PoPs before that time. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase later in the morning and into the afternoon with the highest chances at CHA. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 56 79 60 71 / 70 20 30 40 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 75 55 78 57 72 / 60 30 20 30 80 Oak Ridge, TN 74 54 78 56 71 / 70 30 20 30 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 77 50 77 53 73 / 40 40 20 10 70.