Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Based on low-level winds as sfc cyclone strengthens over NE, not anticipating much upslope enhancement along the ern foothills near Rapid City, though could see some modest upslope enhancement over the nrn/nern foothills this aftn/evening given predominantly northerly winds and Froude numbers around 0. Compact upper low currently located over northern Utah/southeast Idaho. For today, upper low tracks through Colorado this afternoon. so high confidence that much of northeast Wyoming and the higher terrain of southwest South Dakota will change over to snow. For the higher terrain of the Pine Ridge in southwest South Dakota, snowfall intensity will pick up this afternoon into evening.
1133 AM EDT Tue Apr 6 2021 Update - Low chances for rain with upper ridging today and tomorrow - Upper low approaches Wednesday Night with Showers and Thunder There is 20 to 30 percent chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms near and north of Route 20 this afternoon as frontal wave moves through the area. A similar situation will follow for Wednesday as the ridge axis shifts east and heights begin to fall but most of the clouds and rain will be off to our west, closer to the upper low.
The surface cold front then pushes to near highway 65 by midday Wednesday. If enough instability can be generated then all modes of severe weather will be possible, including isolated tornadoes given the low level wind field. Temperatures will be cooler Wednesday with highs just in the 60s.
250 PM EDT Tue Apr 6 2021 Closed upper low near the Utah/Colorado border will make its way east tonight, and the axis of an amplifying downstream ridge will shift east of Kentucky. By Wednesday evening, the stacked upper low will be located over eastern Kansas.
A rather vigorous upper-level low continues to spin across northwest Colorado late this afternoon w/ an excellent fetch of mid & high-level moisture focused into these areas within the northeast quadrant of the upper low. This already has occurred along the SD border and the Pine Ridge, as indicated/ confirmed by area webcams.
240 PM EDT Tue Apr 6 2021 Dry high pressure over the region will move offshore on Wednesday.
1245 PM EDT Tue Apr 6 2021 High pressure will prevail through Wednesday night.
Upper level low currently spinning over northwest Colorado, and is progged to reach Missouri by late Wednesday evening. Surface cyclone will crank up and begin spreading showers and scattered storms from west to east across the CWA Wednesday afternoon. However, some of the high-res models do suggest a few showers moving northeast from the Champaign area toward sunrise. Geelhart 232 PM CDT Additional highs in the 80s will be a dream during this period, as a series of upper lows will slowly parade across the Midwest.
An upper level low over the Central Plains will move east Wednesday, pushing a dryline and an associated cold front towards the area. A cold front will approach the area Wednesday night, but should retreat before any causing any appreciable change in the weather.
Fair weather and VFR expected to prevail under high pressure.
The arrival of a cold front late Wednesday will usher in a cooler and breezy weather pattern.
Clouds and light mountain snow lingering over the southern half of the region will exit the area today, leaving skies mostly clear tonight through Wednesday, as breezy southwest winds and warmer than normal temperatures move back into the area.
145 PM EDT Tue Apr 6 2021 Aviation - Low chances for rain with upper ridging today and tomorrow - Upper low approaches Wednesday Night with Showers and Thunder There is 20 to 30 percent chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms near and north of Route 20 this afternoon as frontal wave moves through the area. A similar situation will follow for Wednesday as the ridge axis shifts east and heights begin to fall but most of the clouds and rain will be off to our west, closer to the upper low.
The upper low over our area yesterday has moved to southwestern Wyoming this morning and continues to move east. Elsewhere, sunny today and less windy than yesterday, and also about ten degrees warmer.
245 PM CDT Tue Apr 6 2021 At 18Z, WV imagery showed the upper trough at the junction of CO/UT/WY, and still forecast to be over nrn CO at 00Z Wednesday. This will be marred by a cold front late tonight, which will shave around 10F off Wednesday's highs, yet still yield highs a few degrees above normal.
1222 PM CDT Tue Apr 6 2021 (Today and tonight) An upper level low will track east across Colorado today and into Kansas by tomorrow morning. Temperatures will warm into the mid and upper 80s for most of the area this afternoon, except west of the dryline, where highs should climb into the lower 90s. For tonight, a weak cold front will work its way south across the northern half of the forecast area late tonight.
Our 12Z RAOB shows that a pronounced EML has propagated off the higher terrain and across southwest Kansas. Surface analysis this afternoon shows a dryline located across western Kansas with a cold front immediately behind it. Eventually, any storm or two that does develop will be undercut by the cold front slamming into the storms.
352 PM EDT Tue Apr 6 2021 High pressure will prevail through Wednesday night. A weak, slow moving cold front will stall to our west late week then advance across the region late weekend. High pressure will remain the dominant surface feature. Aloft, a mid level ridge axis will stay just to our west. Wednesday: High pressure will shift offshore while the ridge aloft shifts over the southeastern states. Subsidence and drier air from the ridging aloft will allow temperatures to once again climb into the 80s (slightly cooler at coastal locations).
1222 PM EDT Tue Apr 6 2021 Low pressure south of Nova Scotia will remain nearly stationary through today and then move southeast Wednesday.
320 PM EDT Tue Apr 6 2021 Low pressure south of Nova Scotia will continue to slowly move southeast back across the open Atlantic through Wednesday.
Vertz Diffluence aloft will slowly diminish this afternoon as the upper low, now located over the Utah-Wyoming-Colorado border, continues to swing southeast, and moving it's ascent and moisture away from Montana. Upper ridging and downslope flow quickly returns tonight to bounce temperatures back into the 60s on Wednesday and provide a mild weather day across the area.
Closer to home, a fractured high pressure system straddles Florida. Temperatures are near 80 with dewpoints in the lower 60s.
Low clouds have spread over much of eastern Oklahoma this morning as low level moisture is on the increase ahead of an approaching cold front.
Still not expecting very many thunderstorms through tonight as a Pacific cold front accompanies an upper low moving over KS late tonight into tomorrow morning. Stronger storms may be develop again across portions of eastern and southeastern OK after sunrise Wed with a threat of hail as vort lobe swings through with upper low. Some showers and stratus associated with the closed low, however, will likely return to northern OK during the afternoon Wed within SW quadrant of the low.
152 PM EDT Tue Apr 6 2021 High pressure will gradually build into the region over the next few days and bring relatively quiet weather to the North Country. Upper low that was just south of Nova Scotia this time last night has moved southward and taken the stronger low level flow with it. Dry weather is expected for the entire area tonight for Wednesday as well as upper ridging starts to slowly build into the area. High temperatures will be several degrees warmer than today with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
Upper level ridging shifts east across the region while an upper level trough shifts into the central Plains states Wednesday. At the surface, high pressure has shifted to the southeast over the southwestern Atlantic nosing into the southeastern U.
A slow-moving closed low is just entering the central Plains and is ejecting out minor mid-level waves northward into the northern Plains. Across western North Dakota, clear skies should allow afternoon high temperatures to reach the low to mid 60s. At this time it appears only near critical fire weather conditions are expected due to the low humidity.
Better shower and storm chances will occur late tonight and Wednesday morning as the cold front approaches and moves into the area. While a strong storm will be possible early Wednesday, the higher severe weather threat will begin right near the eastern edge of our forecast area and points east around mid day Wednesday.
On the other hand, in the Kern County Desert, temperatures are generally running several degrees cooler than this time yesterday. A departing upper level low that earlier promoted the breezy winds in the Kern County Desert will continue trekking east into the Rockies over the next 24 hours. In its wake, a broad upper level ridge axis will set up residence over California, allowing for continued dry and above-normal temperatures for region.
235 PM EDT Tue Apr 6 2021 High pressure will cover the southeast United States, as a weak stationary front trails from the Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic states.
The main upper level low pressure area was over colorado this afternoon and will move east across ks and into northern Missouri through Wednesday night. This upper low pressure area was already sending another short wave northeast into our region tonight into Wednesday.
Upper level flow turns westerly today behind a departing trough of low pressure. Skies will be mostly clear today with light winds across the Northern Rockies as a trough of low pressure digs southward over British Columbia. Winds will pick up in the afternoon as a jet streak aloft dips southward from north of the border and the trough over British Columbia continues to deepen. Expect gusty winds out of the west and southwest to about 20 mph in the lower elevations, with gusts to about 35 mph in the higher mountain ranges of northwest Montana such as the Cabinets, Missions, and Glacier Park region. By later on Wednesday night, the Canadian trough of low pressure digs into the Pacific Northwest and swings east, pushing a cold front ahead of it.
132 PM MDT Tue Apr 6 2021 Main weather maker for the region today is an upper low that is moving east through the central Rockies.
An area of low pressure in northeast Utah will continue to push eastward today. Behind the trough, we have seen winds shift to the west to northwest this morning. A slightly cooler airmass has advected in behind the trough, but daytime temperatures will remain around 5 degrees above normal. High pressure will dominate the weather delivering typical springtime conditions for northern Arizona. A few areas on the lee side of the high terrain (St. The overnight breezes are keeping overnight temperatures a bit warmer than previous nights for much of the area. Winds on Tuesday will shift to become northwesterly as the trough over northern Utah continues to move eastward. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler area wide on Tuesday. The rest of the forecast period will be characterized by building high pressure and warming.
High pressure will gradually build into the north country. We'll have high pressure ridging into our area between departing low pressure system way off to our east and another one taking shape over the central CONUS.
Regardless, critical fire weather conditions prevail this afternoon along and west of the Caprock escarpment while elevated conditions exist in the low Rolling Plains. Later tonight, a Pacific cold front will move through the CWA as the mid/upper-level trough pivots eastward, overtaking the dryline as winds shift to the northwest while remaining breezy. Mixing heights will be significantly lower than today, with the boundary-layer top extending to around 2-km AGL as subsidence from the weak upper-level ridge noses its way into the western High Plains. As a result, temperatures will be a bit "cooler" compared to today, peaking in the middle 70s while remaining bone dry with elevated fire weather conditions possible in the southwestern South Plains.
101 PM MDT Tue Apr 6 2021 Diffluence aloft will slowly diminish this afternoon as the upper low, now located over the Utah-Wyoming-Colorado border, continues to swing southeast, and moving it's ascent and moisture away from Montana. Upper ridging and downslope flow quickly returns tonight to bounce temperatures back into the 60s on Wednesday and provide a mild weather day across the area.
A dry line extended southward from this low into portions of central Kansas. The primary upper low, currently located over NW Colorado will progress southeastward towards western Kansas through tonight. As this low approaches the area, expect increasing FGEN in the H7 to H85 layer. Cooling will continue across the Pine Ridge through this evening and a switchover to snow should occur by late evening. Will remain conservative with the highest accumulations of around 1-3" along the higher terrain of the Pine Ridge.
Extending out ahead of the low pressure system into our area is an inverted-trough/quasi-stationary front, which will act as the focus area for moisture and warm air being advected into the region. As the developing trough continues to move east, weak positive vorticity advection as well as mid-level WAA will likely continue scattered showers and thunderstorms which are currently being observed across central SD into the morning hours.
1250 PM CDT Tue Apr 6 2021 Unseasonably warm conditions will continue today and tonight with upper level ridging over our area along with continued south- southwest winds. An upper level low over northern UT early this morning will move east-southeastward through KS on Wednesday, then east-northeastward from west central MO to northeast MO Wednesday night. Convection will move into northeast and central MO late tonight as upper level divergence increases over this area ahead of the approaching upper level low, and as low level moisture convergence increases on the nose of a strong southwesterly low level jet extending into southwest MO. The showers and storms will shift east of the forecast area by late Wednesday night as a dry slot moves into our area south of the upper level low.
1201 PM MDT Tue Apr 6 2021 18Z TAF CYCLE Winds will strengthen through the afternoon and shift out of the west, then northwest, as a Pacific cold front crosses. Most areas will be slightly cooler on Wednesday, but critical fire weather conditions will be possible again for portions of the state.
1131 AM MDT Tue Apr 6 2021 Key Messages: 1) Cooler weather today after 3 straight days with most sites hitting record high temperatures. Heaviest snowfall expected along the Pine Ridge with 3-5 inches. An upper level low is quickly progressing into northern UT with latest GOES WV imagery showing a large cloud shield over much of central Wyoming. Widespread 1 to 3 inches of snowfall is expected for lower elevations north of the North Platte River Valley while locally higher amounts are likely along the Pine Ridge.
With low level moisture and cloud cover increasing tonight, lows will only drop down into the lower 70s across the Valley and the upper 60s in the ranchlands.
An inverted trough extending extended all the way to the western Great Lakes region. Expect convecting expect an increase in areal coverage this evening with the approach of a cold front from the west.
128 PM EDT Tue Apr 6 2021 High pressure through tonight. Leaned toward higher end of guidance envelop for high temperatures today and toward the lower end in the valleys for lows tonight. However, the low level west to northwest flow may transport enough moisture atop the mixing layer to reintroduce cloud across the north overnight tonight. Upper ridge will strengthen over the area on Wednesday, with very warm temperatures, and for the most part dry conditions.
Much cooler temperatures were seen today across the forecast area as an overnight cold front pushed through the region. High pressure will build over the region Wednesday allowing for temperatures to jump about 7-10 degrees along with just a few high clouds and lighter winds. No significant weather expected through the weekend as high pressure remain over the region occasionally flattened by weak troughs passing to the north.
Mild conditions are currently occurring across the area early this morning, as temperatures are in the upper 50s to the lower 60s. The pressure gradient will tighten across the area today ahead of the low. Another warm day is on tap for day, with highs expected to top out in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Also, overnight as the upper level low moves into the plains, the cap for an elevated lifted parcel will begin to weaken across the area. As the upper level low moves across the plains a front will move east across the area. The front should be around the Highway 65 corridor by mid-day Wednesday.
255 PM EDT Tue Apr 6 2021 High pressure will gradually build into the region over the next few days and bring relatively quiet weather to the North Country. Upper low that was just south of Nova Scotia this time last night has moved southward and taken the stronger low level flow with it. Dry weather is expected for the entire area tonight for Wednesday as well as upper ridging starts to slowly build into the area. High temperatures will be several degrees warmer than today with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
Surface analysis this afternoon places a ridge of high pressure off the western coast of Florida in the Gulf of Mexico. Sunny skies, southerly winds on the back side of high pressure is resulting in temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees as of 2 PM CDT.
/issued 245 PM CDT Tue Apr 6 2021/ At 18Z, WV imagery showed the upper trough at the junction of CO/UT/WY, and still forecast to be over nrn CO at 00Z Wednesday. This will be marred by a cold front late tonight, which will shave around 10F off Wednesday's highs, yet still yield highs a few degrees above normal.
Temperatures along the island chain are hovering in the lower 70s, with very pleasant dewpoints around 60 degrees, and winds on land are from the east around 10 mph. Surface analysis depicts weak high pressure extending from the western Atlantic across the Florida peninsula and into the eastern/central Gulf of Mexico, with the Keys lying within gentle to moderate easterly flow to the south of this high. Aloft, weak lower to mid level ridging persists over our area, while at upper levels the subtropical jet is bringing cirrus overhead. The 00Z Key West sounding reflects the influence of the mid level ridge, with a strong inversion based near 6000 feet, a very dry airmass above, and below normal PW of only 0.
Occasional high clouds can be expected as high level moisture lifts northeast around the closed low near 30N/145W.
630 PM CDT Tue Apr 6 2021 BIG PICTURE: upper level low swings out of the southern Rockies today, meandering across the southern plains before lifting northward over WI by 12z Fri. Ripples in the upper level low pinwheel around the closed low.
929 PM EDT Tue Apr 6 2021 High pressure will remain over the Southeast through midweek as a weak frontal boundary lingers overhead.
1000 PM EDT Tue Apr 6 2021 High pressure will cover the southeast United States, as a weak stationary front trails from the Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic states.
Closed upper low near the Utah/Colorado border will make its way east tonight, and the axis of an amplifying downstream ridge will shift east of Kentucky. By Wednesday evening, the stacked upper low will be located over eastern Kansas.
The high of 60 degrees today was right on the normal for the date, as were most highs across the area.
931 PM EDT Tue Apr 6 2021 Dry high pressure over the region will move offshore on Wednesday.
732 PM EDT Tue Apr 6 2021 High pressure will cover the southeast United States, as a weak stationary front trails from the Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic states.
944 PM EDT Tue Apr 6 2021 High pressure will prevail through Wednesday night. A weak, slow moving cold front will stall to our west late week then advance across the region late weekend. Wednesday: High pressure will shift offshore while the ridge aloft shifts over the southeastern states. Subsidence and drier air from the ridging aloft will allow temperatures to once again climb into the 80s (slightly cooler at coastal locations).
Ridging surface and aloft is producing mostly clear sky and calm/light winds. Ridging surface and aloft will continue to keep conditions quiet. Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 81 59 76 56 / 0 10 60 70 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 80 58 75 55 / 0 10 40 60 20 Oak Ridge, TN 52 80 57 75 55 / 0 10 40 60 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 78 52 75 53 / 0 10 20 50 20.
636 PM MDT Tue Apr 6 2021 Humidities have recovered in this cooler environment today though windy conditions will continue through sunset.
Temperatures will trend seasonably cooler with periods of rain from late week into the weekend. However, it is decreasing in intensity and will fight some drier air over the Lower Peninsula, too. Low temps in the low 40s NE to around 50F SW will be +10-20F above climo. Upper ridging will begin to build into the region Wednesday, supplying partly to mostly sunny and unseasonably warm conditions.
Stratus and MVFR ceilings will likely develop ahead of the cold frontal passage which will pass through all terminals Wednesday morning. Scattered showers and storms will likely develop ahead of the cold front beginning late tonight with rain chances ending w/ the frontal passage. Better shower and storm chances will occur late tonight and Wednesday morning as the cold front approaches and moves into the area. While a strong storm will be possible early Wednesday, the higher severe weather threat will begin right near the eastern edge of our forecast area and points east around mid day Wednesday.
401 PM CDT Tue Apr 6 2021 Right now the main focus is monitoring conditions over the next few hours with convection expected to begin to develop along and ahead of the sfc cold front here shortly.
746 PM EDT Tue Apr 6 2021 High pressure continues to control the weather pattern this evening, with the cumulus field rapidly dissipating as the sun set. High pressure over the waters will slowly shift east through the second half of the week as a weak front approaches the waters from the northwest.
Models were consistent in shifting the low eastward tonight with its center moving over central Kansas by sunrise Wednesday. Clearing over eastern Utah and westernmost Colorado combined with light winds favor strong radiational cooling and expect a number of lower elevation areas will experience freezing temperatures. Additional accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected with locally higher amounts along the higher ridgelines. A transitory, shallow mid-level ridge moves overhead on Wednesday into Wednesday night which will bring decreasing mountain cloud cover and sunny skies elsewhere.
630 PM CDT Tue Apr 6 2021 Right now the main focus is monitoring conditions over the next few hours with convection expected to begin to develop along and ahead of the sfc cold front here shortly.
High pressure will gradually build into the north country. Have kept adjustments limited to sky cover for now, but temperatures may need to be tweaked as the clouds may keep things warmer than previously anticipated. We'll have high pressure ridging into our area between departing low pressure system way off to our east and another one taking shape over the central CONUS.
1006 PM EDT Tue Apr 6 2021 Seasonably warm temperatures will continue through the work week with high pressure keeping conditions dry through most of Wednesday.
625 PM EDT Tue Apr 6 2021 High pressure will prevail through Wednesday night. A weak, slow moving cold front will stall to our west late week then advance across the region late weekend. High pressure will hold its influence on the region tonight. Wednesday: High pressure will shift offshore while the ridge aloft shifts over the southeastern states. Subsidence and drier air from the ridging aloft will allow temperatures to once again climb into the 80s (slightly cooler at coastal locations).
Another more potent round of TSRA will sweep across the state during the afternoon ahead of a cold front.