Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
156 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2018 Areas of low pressure will ripple east along a warm front moving north through the Tennessee Valley and Carolinas tonight.
341 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2018 A small low pressure system will cross the area tonight.
Fog has developed mainly in the Highway 14 corridor and the James River Valley, but the extent is more spotty than expected. Given that the low level moisture remains shallow enough, with dry mid levels, that the freezing drizzle or flurry threat has diminished in northwest Iowa. Will need to monitor whether the low stratus creeps into the Storm Lake area later this afternoon and evening, but this potential is minimal.
Ridging builds aloft tonight keeping mainly dry conditions in place. A little more cloud cover Thursday as Pacific moisture crests ridge over the area will combine with breezy downslope winds to push temperatures into the mid to upper 30s for highs.
Hi-Res models including the TTU WRF and HRRR seem to be initializing this convection quite well and indicate additional development east and southeast through evening as the dryline/Pacific front push east and large scale ascent increases with the approaching upper level trough. A stronger cold front will drop south across the area overnight and early Thursday. Skies will be sunny but temperatures will be cooler, with afternoon highs in the 60s.
313 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018 Quiet weather will persist over the next day as high pressure remains firmly in place. This will result in overnight lows to drop into the low to mid teens across the forecast area.
254 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018 On the large-scale this afternoon, water vapor imagery still depicting a large upper low across the Desert Southwest, with a well-established plume of east-Pacific moisture in place further downstream across the Southern Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley. A tight pressure gradient on the backside of this front will set the stage for breezy north winds late tonight and for much of the day on Thursday before high pressure arrives late in the day. Thursday will be a tad cooler with highs likely topping out in the lower 50s for most locations. Quiet weather to then persist through the conclusion of the workweek and into the upcoming weekend as low amplitude ridging builds overhead.
Strengthening low pressure in the Midwest will then track towards southern Lake Erie on Thursday, combining with a strengthening upper level low Thursday evening for a prolonged period of showers, possibly a thunderstorm.
Cold front and northerly wind shift will enter northwest Oklahoma toward 21Z and spread quickly south and east during the evening. This surface cyclone will be not only a major player in erosion of the dense fog this morning, but also a big influence on fire weather conditions this afternoon and evening. South of the low we will see stronger west and southwest winds but slightly higher RH values. Also of note will be the shift to northerly winds behind a cold front that will move quickly southward over the region through the evening. Winds behind the cold front will likely be stronger than those we will see this afternoon ahead of the front.
Issued by National Weather Service ABERDEEN SD 201 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018 The main concern in the short term will be the redevelopment of fog overnight as high pressure settles in at the sfc over the snow pack.
Cold front will be pushing through in the mid-late morning Thursday, with increasing westerly winds.
1027 AM MST Wed Feb 28 2018 A short lived flat ridge of high pressure will influence the weather today with precip free conditions. Then clouds will increase in Western Wyoming tonight as a large area of low pressure tracks southeast from the Gulf of Alaska toward the mainland. A few snow flurries will fall in the higher mtns tonight before steadier snowfall becomes established in the west by Thursday morning when some isentropic lift becomes established.
The bulk of the shower activity will remain focused in our southern counties this evening, then across most of our counties late tonight as the low moves just north of our region. A few thunderstorms are possible across mainly the western half of the region tonight as the associated cold front moves into the area. Showers will end from west to east through the day Thursday as the cold front moves east of the region. High pressure will build into the central U.
/Tonight through Thursday/ Low pressure moving into Kansas this afternoon will continue to will translate east/northeast through into the Ohio Valley tonight into Thursday. A boundary ahead of the system is stretched across southeast Iowa more mild and moist air to the south and cooler and dry to the north. Moisture streaming ahead of the system is saturating the low levels over southern Iowa however drier mid level air will largely remain.
Temperatures across the area as of 1 PM ranged from the upper 30s to the lower 50s. Will also have to watch closely for the possibility of some light glaze from the drizzle as temperatures hover near or below freezing. As the low pulls farther east and high pressure builds in Thursday afternoon, look for decreasing clouds with highs topping off in the 30s to lower 40s. High pressure settles in Thursday night for mostly clear skies and lows dipping into the teens/lower 20s. A beautiful weekend is shaping up for the weekend along with warming temperatures as a large ridge of high pressure builds in.
After a brief possible "break" in the warm frontal band rain lifting northward, the cold front will advance southeast during the morning hours. Highs will still reach the lower to mid 60s, before falling only very slowly late.
309 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2018 A warm front slowly lifting north across the area will continue to bring showers to the northern parts of the area. After a brief lull in activity for many areas overnight and into early Thursday, a cold front will be pushing into the area from the northwest. Cold front is projected to clear the area by late on Thursday.
At the upper levels, a ridge of high pressure lies to our southwest, with northwesterly flow aloft of our forecast area. Upper level clouds are spreading southeastward over the area because of this ridge, which is making for an overall mostly cloudy day across much of the region with a few pockets of more clear skies. Periodic light rain and drizzle attributed to the low level isentropic ascent will be possible through tonight.
Model guidance indicates a warm front setting up across southern portions of the Mid-State tonight and early Thursday, which will allow for additional rainfall of 2 to 3 inches to fall through tomorrow morning in areas generally along and south of I-40. Across the northern portions of the Mid-State, along and north of I-40, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected with the possibility of lesser amounts should the band of heaviest convection near the warm front become more narrow than expected, and keep the bulk of the rainfall focused further south.
1216 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2018 Approaching low pressure will bring rain tonight and Thursday.
1135 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2018 High pressure along the mid Atlantic Seaboard will move out to sea this afternoon as a warm front lifts north into the area. The warm front will move north of the area tonight with a cold front crossing the area late Thursday afternoon.
Scattered Showers Tonight then Cooler Thursday. Meanwhile an upper lever trough will transition eastward across the region. The sky will clear from the west Thursday in the wake of the exiting upper level trough. Temperatures will be considerably cooler with highs in the lower 50s.
Accumulations of 1 to 3 inches is expected across parts of far northeast Indiana, lower Michigan and northwest Ohio, with the highest amounts across Michigan.
Cooler temperatures will follow this system Wednesday and Wednesday night. A return to dry and warmer weather will occur by the end of the week as the storm track retreats northward. In the mean time, model soundings suggest steepening mid level lapse rates as the upper low moves through the area. A return to dry and warmer weather will follow by the end of the week as the storm track retreats northward. The winter storm system we've been expecting is tracking across the state this morning, with the mid level low and cold pool pushing into central and southern Arizona now, and the surface cold front just east of Tucson. Colder temperatures tonight into Wednesday morning with much of SE AZ near or below freezing, including some outlying areas around Tucson Metro.
High pressure across the Carolinas will weaken tonight as a low pressure system develops across the Tennessee Valley. Overnight lows will be a lot warmer than last night - low to mid 60s across the area. As a result, with the warmer and more moist airmass coming in off the Gulf, the potential for stratus and fog will increase tonight across the western half of the area. The progression of the low clouds/fog and how far east it makes it will be the focus of the forecast for the overnight hours. Low pressure system deepens and moves into the Great Lakes region, and trailing cold front will move through the Southeast.
1253 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2018 Approaching low pressure will bring rain tonight and Thursday.
Lows tonight 5 to 15 and highs Thursday in the low to mid 30s with some upper 30s west and south central. High pressure builds over all terminals through the forecast period bringing high ceilings and mostly light winds.
An upper low was centered over southern CA with broad troughing over the northern Rockies.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday night): Strong low level jet across the lower Texas coast this afternoon continues to mix down and winds continue to meet wind advisory criteria in Brownsville and Harlingen so will extend the NPW through 7 pm for Cameron. Breezy conditions will prevail tonight before a weak cold front moves into the CWA late tonight and winds become light and variable. Drier and slightly cooler air will filter into the area Thursday but temperatures will still be above normal Thurs afternoon.
Also a slight and marginal risk of severe storms this evening to early overnight as the weather system and cold front move through AR. The rain was in response to a warm front lifting across AR, which was not located near the AR and MO stateline, and some upper level short wave energy moving through the mean upper southwest to northeast flow. Models do gradually move the main lift from the north to central and southern areas later today, tonight and into Thursday until the cold front pushes through AR and clears the rain east. Temperatures had warmed to the lower 70s south, while 60s elsewhere.
1124 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2018 A weak cold front extending northeast from low pressure over southwest Kansas into central Iowa will slowly drift south today.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a trough over the southwest with southwesterly flow over Texas. At the surface, high pressure in the Gulf was producing southerly to southeasterly winds across our CWA. There was a complex system of surface boundaries across the Southern Plains with a stationary boundary stretched east to west across Oklahoma, a north to south dryline over West Texas, and a cold front from southern New Mexico across northwestern Mexico. This system will become better organized and move through our CWA as a cold front tonight. Northerly winds behind the front will bring cooler, drier air for Thursday and Thursday night.
Aloft: Aircraft and upr air data revealed fairly low-amplitude longwave flow over the CONUS with a benign trof extending from the Canadian Prairies to AZ. This trof will cross the rgn this eve with rising heights and WNW flow thru tomorrow. That ridge will be knocking on our door by 00Z/Fri. As this low conts E. The high will strengthen and expand as it emerges onto the Plns tonight and drifts just E of the rgn tomorrow afternoon. Rest of this afternoon: M/sunny and cooler. Highs will generally be in the low-mid 40s. There will be a nice warmup Thursday into the weekend with a large upper level trough across the western United States, which will result in warm southerly flow.
103 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2018 Warm front advances into the region by tonight with rain showers. Cold front passes Thursday night.
Tonight through Thursday morning, our aviation visibility models have continued to push the idea of freezing fog setting up tonight. Given the recent melting, cannot argue with that, and would not be surprised to see it or at least some good hoar frost by morning, especially along and near the lower elevations and river valley locations.
259 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2018 Approaching low pressure will bring rain tonight and Thursday.
310 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018 Latest water vapor imagery indicates an upper trough over eastern Arizona, which is currently opening up and will quickly lift northeastward this evening. A few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two have developed across the southeastern Permian Basin this afternoon along a diffuse dryline ahead of the trough, but are expected to quickly move east- northeastward with only light precipitation amounts expected, a solution echoed by high-res guidance. Overnight, winds will decrease, with westerly winds shifting to the north/northeast early Thursday morning as a cold front begins to progress southward through the region. Between the Pacific front this evening and the cold front in the morning, temperatures Thursday afternoon will be a bit cooler, with highs in the 60s for most.
202 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018 A neutral/slightly negatively tilted trough will dig from Saskatchewan/Manitoba this afternoon southeastward to northern Wisconsin by Thursday evening. At the surface, low pressure will develop somewhere across the Mid Mississippi/Ohio River Valley, while an inverted trough extends northwestward into northern Wisconsin. Lows tonight range from the single digits above zero to the low to mid 20s across northwest Wisconsin. High pressure will build into the Northern Plains on Thursday. Cooler 850 hPa air will advect into the region as flow aloft becomes northwesterly. This will bring cooler temperatures on Thursday in comparison to today. Late-week a broad area of high pressure builds across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes.
Culprit for delay of winds is the closed upper low west of the Arizona-New Mexico border with upper flow remaining backed enough for high cloud bands stretched overhead and enough instability for light rain showers within the bands. Once the opening upper low crosses into the western Texas Panhandle close to midnight tonight we will see a modest cold front push south through our area mainly after midnight along with drier air.
We will continue to see episodic bouts of rain and potentially thunderstorms until upper low lifts northeast of our area Saturday night. Meanwhile Rockies upper low will begin to push toward the Plains, cooling mid levels and providing forcing for showers and isolated thunder over much of our northern CWA as well. Upper low tracks across northeast Nebraska during the day Saturday, maintaining shower chances over all of eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa at least through the morning.
As for the bigger picture, a closed low is spinning across Colorado with an enhanced risk for severe storms across portions of the Southern Plains. The upper level trough currently across Colorado will eject to the northeast on Saturday across the Central Plains. Closer to home, a ridge will amplify across the Southeastern U. The ridge axis will be across the area throughout much of the day with PW values dropping down into the 1.
403 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017 High pressure will prevail into Saturday.
The Canadian high pressure center also migrates towards southeast Canada as well. Best upper forcing still won't arrive until Saturday however, and that is when blended guidance jumps into the higher orders of POPs. The NAM during that time has a cold bias, and profiles suggest the freezing level gets fairly close to the surface. SREF and GFS are a couple of degrees C warmer. Blended guidance supports mainly rain, though again with such low freezing levels, can't rule out some flakes making it to the surface or a light accumulation of wet snow.
326 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017 Current water vapor imagery reveals broad cyclonic flow with the main upper low centered over central CO. This low is beginning to lift northeastward towards the central Plains. These showers and storms are struggling to maintain as moisture and instability are very limited as they move off the higher elevations. This evening and overnight the main 500mb axis of the upper low is progged to cross the area with a reinforcing shot of northerly winds mainly between 03z and 09z. However, as the upper low pushes further northeast the pressure gradient will relax and winds will decrease especially by Saturday afternoon.
216 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017 A cold front will slide southeast across the state today. Cooler and drier air will follow for the weekend.
Temperatures will be about 5 degrees cooler than normal tonight, but 20 degrees colder than normal Saturday with highs only in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Upper level ridge axis was over the Red River Valley and will slowly shift northeast. Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough over AZ. Upper trough will move into the Northern Plains Sat and Sun.
/issued 241 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017/ Short Term (Now through Saturday Night): Upper low over the Rockies today will continue to lift northeast through Saturday night. Associated cold front currently draped across the Panhandle will slowly progress east southeast across the state tonight through Saturday night, making it into South Texas, but likely not making it into the Ranchlands. Above normal temperatures continue Saturday with highs slightly cooler than today, especially out west, where cloud cover will be greater.
638 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017 High pressure in Canada will slowly build into the area through the weekend.
Today Through Saturday Night We have been stuck between a ridge of high pressure over the southeast United States, and a front/storminess in the Plains. Cooler/drier air will follow the front, with temperatures returning to more seasonal levels.
With a dry easterly flow fighting the advancing precip, the wet bulb effect will keep temps mainly in the 50s across the CWA, perhaps a little warmer in northeast MO and nearby where rain should end first. Extensive cloud cover will limit diurnal variation with min temps tonight only a few degrees cooler than max temps today. Saturday and Saturday Night: Deep mid and upper-level trough will become negatively tilted as it swings through the Midwest. This is the same trough that brought heavy snow to parts of the central and northern Rockies the past few days.
323 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017 Upper level ridge starting to weaken today as deck of higher clouds streams eastward over much of the southern Georgia and northern Florida. The column will continue moistening overnight as onshore flow continues and the ridge breaks down further, so another morning with a low cloud deck instead of fog is expected. Tomorrow the upper level ridge makes one last attempt to build just east of us over the Atlantic. High temperatures will be slightly warmer than today - mid 90s inland and upper 80s along the coast.
130 PM PDT Fri May 19 2017 High pressure building across CA and weak offshore flow will create widespread above normal high temperatures through Saturday.
Sensible wx Sat AM will include brief windy conditions across the PB and much cooler conditions. NE winds thru the day and some clouds will keep high temps below normal as well, any precip chances will be confined to the Lower Trans Pecos. The chance for precip will increase Sun AM-PM as return se low level flow develops ahead of damping shrtwv trof. Noticeably warmer/drier Thur/Fri. Mostly low end RF wx across the warned area as Carlsbad has just mixed out and lowest RHs in the GDP Mtns are confined to the lowest elevations.
112 PM PDT Fri May 19 2017 High pressure aloft will build in from the Eastern Pacific towards California this weekend. Big warmup today for most areas under building high pressure aloft and light offshore flow. Offshore flow weakens over the weekend but the ridge will continue to expand over the area.
From late tonight into Saturday morning, the 925 and 850 mb moisture transport will increase as a low pressure system moves east across Iowa. On Saturday night, the upper level low will transition northeast from the central Plains into northern Wisconsin.
A strong upper trough lifting northeast from Nebraska will produce upper diffluence and low level warm advection that will result in a steady rain for Saturday. Some elevated thunderstorms are possible north of the warm front over the southern part of the forecast area.
1108 AM PDT Fri May 19 2017 High pressure slowly builds over the Inland Northwest today yet there will be a small chance of mountain showers and a stray thunderstorm.
The atmosphere has destabilized to the south of the warm front with MLCAPES now between 500-2000 J/kg. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to move out of the area on Saturday from west to east as a cold front begins to move across the area.
Saturday night: Dry conditions are expected with subsidence aloft in wake of departing upper low.
450 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017 Through tonight: Water vapor imagery loop once again shows a dirty elongated high pressure ridge stretching from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to the western Atlantic.
However with front and upper trough still west of the area, and ongoing convection, will maintain flash flood watch and add Pushmataha/Choctaw counties to the watch. Cold front may make it to our western zones by Saturday morning, and have lowered min temps a bit for this possibility.
1213 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017 Temperatures are beginning to warm above freezing and have dropped the headlines. High pressure covered the forecast area at 07Z with a light and variable wind. Minimum temps will be warmer tonight with weak warm air advection underway, and a bit more cloud cover expected. A closed upper low will drift to near Sioux Falls on Saturday.
Also increased sky cover and lowered the high temperatures. The primary concern in the short term period is the possibility of near freezing temperatures early Saturday morning that have prompted the issuance of a frost advisory over far eastern Colorado. The large upper level low pressure system over the central Rockies begins to move into the Central High Plains today and lifts into the Central Plains on Saturday. Dryer and warmer conditions are expected by late Saturday and Saturday night as high pressure moves into the region Saturday night.
The upper low will begin to open up and lift out across the central/northern Plains on Saturday. A brisk and cooler northwest surface flow will prevail with any lingering showers diminishing or exiting the area by the afternoon.
Gradual warming trend to continue as broad coastal upper ridge builds inland. Short wave trough on the northern edge of the ridge will reach the southern BC coast this afternoon. Trough will turn southeastward into our CWA Saturday bringing scattered showers and chance of thunderstorms to the central Idaho mountains Saturday afternoon, and the rest of central and south- central Idaho Saturday evening.
The current weather pattern depicts an upper level low spinning over the Central Rockies today then sliding into the Central Plains tonight. Towards the surface, an area of low pressure will be located southeast of the area through tonight brining northerly winds to the forecast area. Ample moisture will be found in the lower levels of the atmosphere.
358 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017 A cold front will approach from the north today before passing through tonight. High pressure then builds in for the weekend.
Upper ridging is projected to rebuild over the Upper Ohio/Great Lakes Regions by Saturday in response to deep troughing over the Plains. Warmth and moisture will thus quickly return and precip probability will escalate as that trough/associated front system dig eastward this weekend.