Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON INDICATE THE UPPER LOW HAS MOVED TO NEAR KMCI WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MISSOURI. 18Z SFC DATA HAS A FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS WEST AND AMPLIFIES DURING THE PERIOD. AS TWO DISTINCT SHORT WAVE TROF PASSAGES ARE FORECAST OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
AS UPPER LOW CIRCULATES OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW WILL CREATE SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SD PLAINS AND ALSO BRING IN SOME COOLER AIR TO NORTHWESTERN SD.
632 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015 A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA.
922 PM PDT WED AUG 5 2015 WARMER TODAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES PLUS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT FLOW THROUGH THE DELTA OVERNIGHT WILL HELP TO KEEP THE INTERIOR WARMER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED NEAR 34N AND 132W WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE CENTRAL COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NAM HAS A MIX OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE THAT THE LOW WILL MAY HELP TO DRAW NORTHWARD UP TO AROUND I-80 BEFORE PUSHING THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PART TO THE EAST. THE GFS MAINLY PUSHES THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO THE EAST BEFORE THE LOW AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT REACH THE AREA.
BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THOUGH WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE NOT QUITE AS LIGHT WITH THE HIGH A TAD FARTHER EAST. LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL TEMPS AGAIN GIVEN FOR TONIGHT GIVEN LOWS THE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS.
735 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 MILD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE.
THE GFS AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE SREF AND NAM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. THIS DOES MAKE SENSE CONSIDERING THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH. SO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DUE TO THE VARIABLE NATURE OF THE CLOUD COVER. SO WENT COOLER IN THE EAST WHERE THE CLOUD COVER LASTS LONGER AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE THE COOLEST. RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION PROVIDING RELATIVELY DRY EAST-NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE FORECAST AREA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI/SOUTHWEST IL IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE FEATURE PROPAGATING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. RATZER 257 PM CDT A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS KEEPING GULF MOISTURE CONTAINED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA TODAY AND ALLOWING FOR COOLING ONSHORE FLOW IN LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKE. TOMORROW THUS LOOKS LIKE A CLOSE COPY OF TODAY THOUGH MAYBE JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.
The center of the upper level high pressure remains to the west, but the ridging back into Texas is more pronounced. So far this afternoon, San Angelo (KSJT) continues to be the area hot spot and most other sites are running a couple degree cooler.
A THREAT FOR STRONG OR BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS WILL RETURN BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN TROUGH APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL HOVER MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S. POP VALUES WILL AGAIN BE ON THE HIGH SIDE.
741 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW IS COMING FROM A VERY MOST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. IN THE LOW 80S.
1205 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF FAVORABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. TONIGHT ANCHORED BY HIGH PRESSURE TUCKED BENEATH BENIGN MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT. ECWMF CONT TO HOLD ITS OWN WITH REGARDS TO HOLDING ON TO MORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE OH VALLEY BEFORE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE PIEDMONT.
652 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015 WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BE THE FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE WARM FRONT NEAR US HIGHWAY 85.
742 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 MILD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE.
OTHERWISE DESPITE 2000 J/KG CAPE AND NO CIN PER SPC MESOANALYSIS ALONG TROUGH NOTHING GOING ON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ECWMF CONT TO HOLD ITS OWN WITH REGARDS TO HOLDING ON TO MORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE OH VALLEY BEFORE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE PIEDMONT.
Short range models indicate a weak upper level ridge axis transitioning east across the Western High Plains tonight and pushing further east into the Central Plains Thursday. An attendant cold front will push southeast into western Kansas Thursday afternoon which may provide enough forcing to support an isolated storm or two up near the I-70 corridor where upper level dynamics will be slightly more favorable due to a +70kt jet streaming east across Nebraska.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. WITH THE MODELS TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH, HAVE SOME CONCERNS AS TO GOING TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
757 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HELPS SPREAD SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FROM CANADA INTO THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY NORTH. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH GENERALLY WEAK DYNAMICS AND LIMITED MOISTURE.
1256 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 MILD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 73 86 71 88 / 60 80 60 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 70 84 68 86 / 50 80 60 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 71 82 68 86 / 60 90 60 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 67 82 66 82 / 50 80 80 20.
DRY AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL WIN OUT OVER THE RAIN AND ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA.
631 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 A PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HAVE MAX TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS. BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TOMORROW ALLOWING FOR INCREASING MOISTURE AND MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW. HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WEST.
A Pacific cold front has pushed across Idaho and western Montana early this morning, producing widespread valley rain and mountain snowfall. While showers are expected to continue through the morning hours, a gradual increase in activity is likely this afternoon as the main upper level low pressure trough and an associated jet streak slide over the region.
850 MB ANALYSIS AT 12Z SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL SC THRU CENTRAL AL AND AR.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A COLD FRONT NOW JUST OFF THE SOUTH LOUISIANA COAST. FEATURE PROGGED TO CONTINUE A SOUTHWARD ADVANCE DEEPER INTO THE GULF THROUGH THE DAY AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS. COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS WARMING AND MOISTENING SOUTHERLIES MAKE A RETURN SUNDAY AS THE HIGH ADVANCES FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION.
some areas of drizzle and or freezing drizzle with lower visibilities look to be possible over parts of Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. May see some areas of drizzle/freezing drizzle develop late tonight.
A LEE TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A FEW TO 13 DEGREES ON SUNDAY AS A DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS.
SUNNY TODAY BUT COLD AS TEMPS WILL FALL SHORT OF FREEZING ALL AREAS EXCEPT DOWN ALONG THE ALABAMA BORDER.
THEN LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER 80S INLAND WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL UNDER A MID LEVEL RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL REORIENT THE GRADIENT. A TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN RETREATING GULF HIGH PRESSURE AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE THE LOWER VALLEY AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER OR EVEN MID 80S INLAND. THE OVERHEAD RIDGE WILL BE TO THE EAST WHILE A BROAD. POSITIVE TILT MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST DOWN TO WEST TEXAS TEMPORARILY TAKES OVER FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
406 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016 THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HELD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FOR MUCH OF THE LAST WEEK HAS WEAKENED WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE FLOW ALOFT TO TRANSITION TO A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL REMAIN FAR NORTH OF US BUT WILL HELP TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS.
624 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016 A NEAR STATIONARY COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING THE IMPETUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS. VALUES IN THE LOWER 50S ARE HELPING TO SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME READINGS DOWN TO 1/4 MILE WHERE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT.
FOG AND LOCALIZED LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING.
MAIN FOCUS WILL CENTER ON EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG CHANCES NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TILL 9AM AND THE LOW-END (20%) RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR MIXING IN NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WARMER READINGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW LOCATIONS GIVEN THE DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE SUN. SLIGHTLY DEEPER H5 TROUGHING WILL SHIFT OVER TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY THAT WILL SUBTLELY ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE SHALLOW MOIST SE FLOW. HIGHS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY GIVEN THE WARMER START SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUED H925 TEMPS IN THE 21-15C RANGE WEST TO EAST.
401 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016 A WEAK DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO LAST EVENING WHICH TAPPED INTO A MOIST AIRMASS OVER NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH AROUND 08Z TO 11Z SUNDAY INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS LIFT AT THE GUYMON TAF SITE.
WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AT HRO AND BPK. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO COME BACK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AS UPPER TROUGHING SWINGS DOWN INTO THE PLAINS LATER TODAY. LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY THE AFTERNOON IN MOST OF. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN AGAIN IN THE FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING.
639 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN TODAY AND CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVED ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN AREAS AROUND THE DAKOTA BORDER EARLIER THIS MORNING PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS FALLON COUNTY BUT HAS SINCE ENDED. LEE-SIDE TROUGHING WILL SET UP THIS MORNING RESULTING IN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE UPPER YELLOWSTONE AND STILLWATER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS WILL BE THE NEW NORM THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESS DOMINATES THE WESTERN US.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE FOR POTENTIALLY FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN LEVY COUNTY AND BORDERLINE WIND CHILL ISSUES NORTH OF TAMPA TONIGHT. THE HIGH CENTER RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. BUT THINK WE WILL SEE OCCASIONAL MIXING THAT WILL PREVENT ANY REAL DURATIONS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER, SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE REGION. FREEZING FOG IS OBSERVED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE HILINE COUNTIES WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S UNDER A TEMPERATURE INVERSION. GIVEN THE MARGINAL POPS OVER THIS AREA, WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN UNTIL THE COLDER AIR MIXES OUT.
1050 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
Dewpoints are expected to eventually rise into the lower 50s for the southern 2/3 of the area by late tonight. This will result in warmer overnight temperatures and lows in the 40s to lower 50s.
HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITING THE MIDWEST WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THOUGH IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY. THEN WARMER THAN NORMAL AND WET SUNDAY NIGHT. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP HAD AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A >1040MB HIGH CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA RIDGING SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST WIND OVER OUR CWA BY MORNING BUT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OF OUR DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AGAIN OVER ALL EXCEPT OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SPREAD INTO OUR NORTHWEST ZONES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
412 AM PST SAT FEB 13 2016 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE TOWARD CALIFORNIA. COOLER TOWARDS THE COAST TODAY WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG NEAR THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT REMAINING LAKE-EFFECT TO END THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR AT 850 MB PUSHES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE VERY SLOWLY EDGES EAST. WAA AND AN APPROACHING S/W TROF WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION.
512 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016 AS THE WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS ARE TURNING TO A BIT OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION AND ADVECTING IN WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR. THE MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SUPPORTS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 BUT A BIT SOUTH OF PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE LOCATION OF THE THERMAL RIDGE AND BETTER FORCING WHICH SEEMS TO COME THROUGH FROM ABOUT 8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH ABOUT 5 AM SUNDAY MORNING.
TOOK A MIDDLE GROUND IN THE UPPER 20S DUE TO CONSENSUS ON ALL AVAILABLE SKEW T FORECASTS INDICATING THE BASIN MIXING OUT TODAY WITH THE COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. BUT HESITATION SINCE MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING ABOUT 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN ACTUAL IN THE BASIN THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE TROUGH MARCHING ACROSS IDAHO AND MONTANA TODAY WILL INCREASE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
Some southeastward development of freezing fog is not out of the question this morning, however the probability for freezing drizzle in these areas of stratus is not looking quite as probable at this time.
WITH COVERAGE IN THE RIDGES AFFECTED BY UPSLOPE FLOW AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE.
BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND OVER THE RIDGES WITH THE LAKES MODIFYING THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTH AND STRONG UPSLOPE EXPECTED ALL DAY. THE FACTORS WILL KEEP INVERSION HEIGHTS BETWEEN 800 AND 700MB IN THE 1-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LEE TROUGHING AND THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREE WARMER.
THEN WARMER THAN NORMAL AND WET SUNDAY NIGHT. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP HAD AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A >1040MB HIGH CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA RIDGING SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST WIND OVER OUR CWA BY MORNING BUT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OF OUR DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AGAIN OVER ALL EXCEPT OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SPREAD INTO OUR NORTHWEST ZONES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
627 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 A PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. DEPENDENT ON SUFFICIENT SATURATION WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CRITICAL FREEZING MARK FOR A FEW HOURS. FRONTAL TIMING NEAR DAWN ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS MAY ALSO SUPPORT TRANSIENT FREEZING FOG IF THE NEAR SURFACE MOISTENS SUFFICIENTLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER AND COOLER AIR TO KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S BUT MAY STILL FEEL HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EASTWARD SHIFTING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS ARE GUSTING IN THE LOWER 20S (KNOTS). HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SPILL EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
1009 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN TODAY AND CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
604 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016 LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THIS MORNING. AS THIS HIGH MIGRATES SOUTHEAST WE WILL SEE THE BAND OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW PUSH EAST BUT WEAKEN. TRACK HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARDS WHICH ALLEVIATES SOME OF THE MIXED PRECIPITATION ISSUES AS THE FINGER OF ABOVE FREEZING MID LEVEL AIR WILL BE LIMITED TO JONES COUNTY WITHIN THE CWA.
AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHER SPEEDS OVER PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS WITH A MORE TIGHTLY PRESSURE GRADIENT. /ISSUED 406 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/ THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HELD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FOR MUCH OF THE LAST WEEK HAS WEAKENED WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE FLOW ALOFT TO TRANSITION TO A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL REMAIN FAR NORTH OF US BUT WILL HELP TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS.
737 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016 SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO OUR EAST THIS MORNING ARE LIKELY TO BE MOSTLY RAIN AND WILL BE FALLING INTO POCKETS OF SUB-FREEZING SFC TEMPS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SO HAVE ADDED MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE AREA FROM FORSYTH-LAME DEER EASTWARD. SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVED ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN AREAS AROUND THE DAKOTA BORDER EARLIER THIS MORNING PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS FALLON COUNTY BUT HAS SINCE ENDED. LEE-SIDE TROUGHING WILL SET UP THIS MORNING RESULTING IN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE UPPER YELLOWSTONE AND STILLWATER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS WILL BE THE NEW NORM THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESS DOMINATES THE WESTERN US.
/ISSUED 324 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/ SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE AIRMASS THAT IS DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF OKLAHOMA.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN MN WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TROUGH MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN THROUGH SUNDAY.
This combo of low-level isentropic ascent and shallow moisture could set the stage for some light freezing drizzle, mainly across areas to the southwest of the accumulating snowfall including eastern KS and western MO. For now, low-level ascent looks limited enough to keep any freezing drizzle patchy in nature so that any icing would be very light. Warm air advection Sunday morning will set the stage for much warmer temperatures by Sunday afternoon, with some areas near and south of the KC metro approaching 50 degrees.
EXPECT LOWS TOMORROW MORNING IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE FA.
CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS IN THE LOW LEVELS WHILE 00Z DENVER RAOB SHOWED WARMING ALOFT DURING THE DAY WITH STRENGTHENING INVERSION AT 450MB. CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS. UPPER AIR DYNAMICS OVER THE PLAINS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH ACARS SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING SOME WARMING ALOFT AND INCREASED DRYING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON TO CHANCE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS ON THE PLAINS IN THE UPPER 80S.
AND IS EXPECTED TO START DIGGING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS BEGINS TO AMPLIFY. THE OVERALL PATTERN OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U. AND BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.
A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST AFTER 18Z THURSDAY WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER EASTERN ARIZONA WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED STORMS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
743 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK STEERING FLOW.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE TEXAS COAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OUT OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED TO THE EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER TEXAS DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT WILL INITIALLY BUILD OVER THE TOP OF THE TROUGH.
COOLING TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR AT LEAST THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE LEE TROUGH REMAINING TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE LEE TROF REMAINING WELL W-NW OF THE AREA. DUE TO A WARMER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. KETCHAM THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AS MOST OF THE PLAINS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE LEE TROUGH OVER NW KS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE A LITTLE CLOSER TO CENTRAL KS BY SUN EVENING/NIGHT. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE THIS FRONT/TROUGH PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT FOR SUN NIGHT. LEE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT. ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS UNDER THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS WITH FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THEY WILL HOLD OFF ANY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE WARMER NAM FOR LOWS.
924 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.