Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temps are sitting comfortably in the low 50s. Temps overnight should drop to near freezing for most, except the Louisville metro. Current surface analysis displays broad area of high pressure centered over the Lower Great Lakes region and expanding across much of the eastern half of the CONUS. Overnight low temperatures are expected to fall into the lower to mid 30s, a touch warmer than this morning but still a bit cooler than normals. Tomorrow, high pressure will continue to slowly glide off to the east, with winds shifting to the southeast throughout the day. Upper level ridging will remain over KY and southern IN Sunday night with plenty of dry air still in place.
Grand Forks was warmer, at 67 degrees. An upper level trough to the west currently has the Northern Plains in southwesterly flow aloft. Ahead of the trough, we've seen winds on the windy side with gusts to around 40 mph. Winds will stay up a bit this evening, diminishing slowly through the night and switching to the northwest as the cold front pushes through the area. Rain is expected with the cold front and mid level trough. Temperatures will be cooler tomorrow, with highs mainly in the upper 40s to low 50s. Clustered ensemble means seem to be gaining more run to run consistency painting a picture of an upper low south to southeast of our forecast area tracking to the northeast.
Models project the center of high pressure building eastward to Upstate New York by 12Z Sunday morning. * None Strong high pressure centered over southern Ontario has maintained large scale subsidence preventing cloud formation today. Clear skies will promote efficient radiative cooling tonight allowing lows down around if not slightly below freezing. Pleasant weather continues through the remainder of the weekend as the strong high pressure drifts into the eastern Great Lakes/Northeast with SE MI remaining under its western edge. The upper level ridge axis will cross the region Sunday allowing for deeper southerly flow across lower MI. Highs will be able to crack the 60-mark with most areas expected to reach into the low 60s (areas along the lakeshores will be a touch cooler in the upper 50s to near 60).
High pressure, that continues to push off to our east, has provided us with clear skies and beautiful weather today. Clear skies and mild temperatures will continue through the evening hours, as the upper ridge pushes east. Temperatures tonight will be warmer than were seen the last few nights, as high clouds move into the area around midnight tonight. Widespread temperatures in the low to mid 60s will be seen, but it will be rather breezy.
Current surface analysis displays broad area of high pressure centered over the Lower Great Lakes region and expanding across much of the eastern half of the CONUS. Overnight low temperatures are expected to fall into the lower to mid 30s, a touch warmer than this morning but still a bit cooler than normals. Tomorrow, high pressure will continue to slowly glide off to the east, with winds shifting to the southeast throughout the day. Upper level ridging will remain over KY and southern IN Sunday night with plenty of dry air still in place.
The aformentioned high pressure will shift to the east on Sunday, which will veer flow to more southeasterly at the SFC. Afternoon temperatures will be slightly warmer on Sunday compared to today, topping out in the mid to upper 60s.
High pressure to our north will result in clear skies and light winds overnight, which will make for ideal radiational cooling conditions. The aformentioned high pressure will shift to the east on Sunday, which will veer flow to more southeasterly at the SFC. Afternoon temperatures will be slightly warmer on Sunday compared to today, topping out in the mid to upper 60s.
A mid/upper ridge axis was situated across the Southern and Central Plains states today.
720 PM EDT Sat Mar 20 2021 For the remainder of the weekend, high pressure will continue to promote mild weather conditions.
VFR will continue over the next 24 hours as high pressure remains in control. High pressure centered across the eastern Great Lakes will dominate the Ohio, Mid Atlantic States and the Tennessee Valley through the day Sunday. Highs Sunday will warm a few degrees over today, into the lower to mid 60s.
Strong subsidence with high pressure both aloft and at the surface will result in a dry weekend with plenty of sunshine. The ridge axis will gradually shift eastward, passing over Indiana Sunday into early Sunday night. Cloud coverage will increase to partly cloudy Sunday night as an upper trough makes its way towards the area, increasing the moisture content aloft. Winds will be slightly breezier Sunday afternoon across the NW portion of the forecast area due to a low level jet setting up to the NW and N along the front edge of the approaching trough.
/issued 245 PM CDT Sat Mar 20 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night): High pressure at the surface and modest ridging aloft are over the region today. The atmosphere remains dry today with light winds as overhead high pressure shifts slowly east.
409 PM CDT Sat Mar 20 2021 Rather than scatter out much less erode, cloud clover persisted overnight and has continued to plague the area today, holding temperatures east of the Sabine River to HWY 165 in the lower/mid 50s, with upper 50s to around 60 to the east and just to the west, and in the lower/mid 60s across the sun drenched western tier of SE TX counties. Given this, have nudged forecast lows a little warmer than the NBM and model consensus. High pressure at the SFC and aloft will prevail on SUN, with temperatures getting close to seasonal normals amid a mix of clouds and sun. The trof is forecast to eject out across the Central Plain/Mid MS River Valley MON night into TUE, dragging a weak SFC front into the forecast area.
635 PM CDT Sat Mar 20 2021 High pressure will continue over the area through the period.
643 PM EDT Sat Mar 20 2021 High pressure centered over the central Great Lakes will move east reaching the New England coast by Sunday morning.
938 PM EDT Sat Mar 20 2021 High pressure wedge continues across much of the CWA. but have kept the low pops from generally east and south of KCSG to KAHN tonight into Sunday morning. The trough gradually drifts off the GA coast by late Sunday afternoon.
617 PM CDT Sat Mar 20 2021 (This evening through Sunday) Warmer tonight with lows mainly in the 40s, as southeast to south winds stay up in the 5 to 15 mph range. Breezy and sunny Sunday, particularly over the Big Country and Concho Valley as a lee trough develops along the Texas and New Mexico border.
628 PM CDT Sat Mar 20 2021 H5 analysis from this morning had a low amplitude ridge across the central CONUS. West of this feature, a broad trough of low pressure extending from western British Columbia, south to the northern California coast. At the surface, a large area of high pressure was anchored over the eastern Great Lakes. West of this feature, a cold front extended from western North Dakota into central Wyoming. A strong cold front will approach the northwestern forecast area around 06z tonight, passing through the forecast area by 12z Sunday. The only area of concern for very light pcpn will be over the far northwestern forecast area, mainly over the Pine Ridge, where some limited moisture exists tonight. On Sunday night, an H5 trough will deepen across the Four Corners.
302 AM CDT Sun Mar 21 2021 A sharp upper level ridge along with low level southerly flow will keep the quiet and mild weather in tact for today. Highs look to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with readings in the middle 60s area-wide.
307 AM CDT Sun Mar 21 2021 We are looking at the last cool night in the lower 40s interior southeast Texas and central Louisiana to the mid to upper 40s from I-10 south to the coast. A few clouds were still lingering around to remind me that yesterday was alot cooler than forecast. low pressure troughs were still covering much of the east and western US and in the south central US a ridge was over the eastern half of Texas. and yes it will be definitely warmer today with less cloud cover. We will continue to see the upper level ridge slide over the area this afternoon and then will be east of us tonight.
Current Visible Satellite loop shows bands of mid to high level cloudiness lifting northeast across the area ahead of the main cold front and associated upper level trough, which is still pushing across western Wyoming this afternoon. Some of the colder areas which are struggling to mix out the cold air remain in the 40s and will likely not warm up too much more before the cold front arrives this evening. Model show the main trough axis taking its sweet time moving across the Rocky Mountain Region Sunday through early Monday.
404 AM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021 High pressure east of the region will set up as a ridge along the Appalachians, keeping a dry east-southeast flow over the region through Monday night.
High pressure at the surface and aloft are keeping skies mainly clear overnight.
A cold front is currently (as of 09z) crossing the forecast area, generally lining up with Highway 61. Left a schc PoP along the Pine Ridge a little later this morning to account for orographic post-frontal forcing and slightly better moisture profiles. Modest fgen at H5-7 but dry air in the low levels should allow for mixed sun and clouds today. Overall, blended in the warmer end of guidance for max temps, resulting in forecast highs near 50 far west to upper 50s central. Mid-level fgen also increases over central and eastern Neb ahead of the low and near the trough axis. Some snow will likely mix in briefly overnight and early morning as temperatures approach the freezing mark. Northeast winds will be breezy at times as the low pressure approaches from the south.
Expect most areas to eventually become partly cloudy tomorrow with highs mostly in the low to mid 70s except in the upper 60s to around 70 at the coast. This combined with an approaching upper level trough will also bring increased rain chances to our northern counties. The associated frontal boundary with this UL trough will push south and through our CWA late Mon/early Tues where it will stall somewhere near the coast or offshore.
111 AM CDT Sun Mar 21 2021 (This evening through Sunday) Warmer tonight with lows mainly in the 40s, as southeast to south winds stay up in the 5 to 15 mph range. Breezy and sunny Sunday, particularly over the Big Country and Concho Valley as a lee trough develops along the Texas and New Mexico border. Highs Sunday are expected in the lower to mid 70s.
Cloudy skies and a steady wind will keep temperatures from falling very much tonight, and a few showers could arrive ahead of a weak cold front. The weak cold front should produce scattered showers Monday as it moves into Southern Wisconsin and stalls. High temperatures will remain well above normal, but will be a little cooler than today due to cloud cover and shower activity.
High pressure dominates across the region during this taf cycle favoring light nly flow and VFR skies. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 42 70 52 65 / 0 0 0 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 39 68 47 68 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 66 40 68 46 68 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 31 67 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 10.
Pattern synopsis and forecast: Not much change in the weather, with broad and shallow mid level ridging over the eastern Great Lakes. At the sfc, high pressure was starting to move out into the Atlantic, while low pressure and a cold front were moving into central Canada and the Plains, and was resulting in light reflectivities. The mid level ridging shove into the NE conus through tonight, while the upstream low pressure and cold front track into Ontario and Lake Superior, down through WI and midwest. Highs today will range from the middle 50s in eastern upper to the lower half of the 60s in nrn lower. Cooler near the lake shores.
Upper level high pressure will be firmly planted over the area as it slowly slides east through Monday. With the upper ridge firmly overhead, leaned higher than guidance on the highs both days. Lows will remain in the 40s given the low dewpoints.
239 AM CDT Sun Mar 21 2021 High pressure is promoting tranquil and clear conditions this morning across the Tennessee Valley region. Have trended 2-3 degrees above guidance, with highs in the low to mid 60s expected in most locations. After another clear and dry night, we'll have one more nice weather day on Monday as the center of the high pressure system shifts further to the east, resulting in a prevailing southerly flow.
Models project the center of high pressure building out over the Atlantic Ocean by midday Sunday. * None Strong high pressure centered over southern Ontario has maintained large scale subsidence preventing cloud formation today. Clear skies will promote efficient radiative cooling tonight allowing lows down around if not slightly below freezing. Pleasant weather continues through the remainder of the weekend as the strong high pressure drifts into the eastern Great Lakes/Northeast with SE MI remaining under its western edge. The upper level ridge axis will cross the region Sunday allowing for deeper southerly flow across lower MI. Highs will be able to crack the 60-mark with most areas expected to reach into the low 60s (areas along the lakeshores will be a touch cooler in the upper 50s to near 60).
/NEW/ /Through Sunday night/ Ridging aloft and deep dry air over the region will result in a clear night with lows from the upper 30s to the middle 40s. The upper ridge axis will shift to the east on Sunday in response to a low pressure system approaching from the west.
This is associated with the back side of a High pressure ridge beginning to shift out of the Midwest. Southerly winds increase today, bringing even warmer temperatures to the local area. As the High pressure ridge that has been overhead the past couple of days begins to break down and shift east, clouds will slowly invade the region. These are begin aided by the next weather system developing over the desert sw, with an elongated trof stretching ne to the northern Plains.
Expect northerly breezes and cooler temperatures across the area today as another trough moves through the region.
137 AM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021 High pressure centered over the central Great Lakes will move east reaching the New England coast by Sunday morning. A warm front will lift north across the area Monday.
241 AM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021 High pressure remains in control into the new work week. The probability for unsettled weather increases by midweek, as upper troughing sets up to the west. A high pressure system will provide dry weather today and tonight, with lots of sunshine today.
Upper ridging will dominate the area with clear skies and highs in the upper 60s. A trough will set up over the Rockies by Monday. A series of low pressures will push through the Mid-South bringing thunderstorms and showers to the area.
Today should be much of the same, however we're watching an upper level low currently situated over the southeast United States that is expected to push a cloud deck into the mid-state throughout the day today. This could deck will likely keep temperatures cooler than they otherwise would climb (though equal to or slightly warmer than yesterday) and while a few models are showing the potential for some sprinkles across our southeast, the airmass is such that we shouldn't have anything reach the ground.
Lighter winds and cooler temperatures can be expected in the wake of today's cold front passage. A cold front will continue to work its way from its current location across northern Clark and southern Inyo counties southward overnight into Sunday morning. Expect cooler air to filter in tonight leaving highs a few degrees below normal for Sunday. The cold front weakens this evening as it moves into the Las Vegas Valley. The active pattern will continue across the west as a series of troughs bring periods of wind and temperatures that remain a bit below normal. Cold front will continue to slowly push south into the Mojave Desert tonight and Sunday. Winds will shift to a northerly directions with strongest winds forecast within the lower Colorado River Valley Sunday.
Some gusts may approach 20 knots across the higher terrain of the Ozarks. High pressure will continue over the area through the period.
Breezy north-northeasterly winds will continue throughout the day with winds becoming less strong overnight and into tomorrow morning as the gradient between high pressure off to the north and an inverted coastal trough begins to weaken. Showers will continue to expand inland from offshore today with chances for precipitation remaining highest along the coastline before dropping in the late evening as the influence of the inverted trough over the region begins to weaken.
853 PM PDT Sat Mar 20 2021 Dry weather will prevail as an upper dry trough passes by.
1109 PM CDT Sat Mar 20 2021 Clear skies today with slightly warmer temperatures and breezy conditions as southerly flow reestablishes. The lower humidity and breezy conditions will also increase fire weather concerns today, especially across far northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri where the stronger winds will reside. The low-level jet will weaken near sunrise and winds will slacken before diurnal mixing and more gradient driven winds take over. As the main upper level trough ejects out into the Plains, increasing isentropic lift will allow scattered showers to develop across eastern kansas and gradually spread into western Missouri. A secondary trough dropping out of the PacNorthwest will dive further south and keep addition rain chances later in the week mainly south of the forecast area.
Monday looks to be quite pleasant with mostly clear skies as regime is dominated by upper ridge and lingering hybrid wedge. Max temps today could be a bit more limited in the southeast given aforementioned low and precip, otherwise expect Monday morning lows in the low to mid 40s for most areas and moderating warmer Monday afternoon generally in the upper 60s to low 70s.
404 AM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021 High pressure over the area today will gradually retreat offshore through the first half of the week. As the high builds offshore this afternoon, light NE winds will become onshore from the SE.
High pressure through the region will keep showers out of the forecast with WAA increasing tomorrow and Monday allowing temps to climb back into the upper 60s to low 70s.
351 AM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021 High pressure will remain in control over the region through mid week. Several waves of low pressure are expected to track to our west during the middle to latter portions of the week, potentially bringing a return to more active weather, particularly with the storm system towards the end of the week. Warmer today with highs in the 60s and cool again tonight with lows around 30. Much warmer at night due to low clouds and higher moisture content.
This is because a sprawling high pressure cell sits over the Northeast U. Looking further up through the levels, a broad trough sits across the eastern U. with a sharp transient ridge moving into the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. On the heels is a more potent upper level trough moving from the Pacific Northwest.
/Issued 938 PM EDT Sat Mar 20 2021/ High pressure wedge continues across much of the CWA. but have kept the low pops from generally east and south of KCSG to KAHN tonight into Sunday morning. The trough gradually drifts off the GA coast by late Sunday afternoon.
/issued 931 PM CDT Sat Mar 20 2021/ Sfc ridging is located directly ovhd late this evening, resulting in most locations with calm winds with the exception being across portions of NE TX where light ESE winds were ongoing.
A positively tilted trough extends across central Montana with southwest flow over the Dakotas, and a 40-50kt 850 MB jet transitioning east in MN. A cold front is moving into our CWA and has already shifted into northeast ND. As the the main trough axis shifts east and subsidence arrives we see a transition back to dry conditions late tonight which will continue into Monday. The latest runs have not shifted QPF amounts considerably from yesterday's 12Z runs, keeping the highest QPF amounts in our far southeast and east.
1223 AM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021 High pressure remains in control into the new work week. The probability for unsettled weather increases by midweek, as upper troughing sets up to the west. A high pressure system will provide dry weather today and tonight, with lots of sunshine today.
436 AM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021 A high pressure area will bring another day with sunny skies and mild temperatures. Winds will increase as the high pressure area moves farther away from the area.
234 AM MDT Sun Mar 21 2021 Surface analysis shows the cold front has pushed to the southeast of PHP-IEN and should be completely out of the forecast area shortly after sunrise. High temperatures will be cooler than yesterday, though still near, or slightly warmer than, the average for this time of year. A NE-SW oriented band of -snra has developed in the area of enhanced lift ahead of the upper trough. Mean central CONUS troughing will prevail through most of the week with the main storm track remaining well to the south of the forecast area.
Currently watching the speed and timing of the cold front as it crosses the divide. Models depict the cold front and first round of precipitation through the area by late tonight. However, the upper- level trough will continue to provide support for scattered snow showers, especially east of the divide, through the day Sunday. Behind the departing trough, northwest flow sets up and allows for the development of orographic snow showers across the western mountains for an active end to an active period. The GFS/ECMWF models are fairly consistent with moving a progressively eastward moving trough east of the forecast area by Monday morning.
328 AM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021 Deep layer stability held firm within a steadily increasing upper height field and general low level ridging ensures another day of benign weather conditions today. The resident above average thermal profile trending warmer thanks to the underlying increase in mean thicknesses and advent of modest warm air advection in low level south flow. Similar environmental conditions in place Monday, although increasing depth to the south-southwest flow as the upper ridge axis eases eastward allows for an uptick in the advective process.
148 AM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021 For the remainder of the weekend, high pressure will continue to promote mild weather conditions.
126 AM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021 High pressure will provide dry conditions through the weekend and Monday.
Ahead of this wave, increasing southwesterly flow aloft was forcing lee side troughing over eastern Colorado and a fairly tight pressure gradient across western and central Kansas. On Sunday, a cold front will drop into northern and western sections of the forecast area by late morning and early afternoon. Rain and thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage into Monday as the upper level trough continues to approach the region. Increasingly warmer soil temperatures will also keep snow from accumulating.
Although there may be more in the way of high cloud cover today, high temperatures should be at least a few degrees warmer than yesterday.
400 AM CDT Sun Mar 21 2021 A mid/upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to build east into the region today, bringing a really nice end to the first weekend of Spring. Monday will be another nice day as the high shifts farther east.
351 AM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021 High pressure centered near the New England Coast will extend a ridge of high pressure west over the local area through Monday. A warm front will lift north across the area Monday.