Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
308 PM EST Sat Feb 26 2022 Much cooler today with increasing clouds overnight. Increasing rain chances will continue into Sunday as low pressure develops offshore. High pressure wedging in from the north will remain through the period. Assuming the overnight hours turn cloudy enough the area should not see quite the gradient in temperatures as today's highs and most areas should dip into the low to mid 40s. Rain chances spread NW to SE across the area on Sunday as some very weak isentropic upglide gives way to PVA and height falls ahead of a very sheared out trough. A cold front dropping southward out of central Canada will approach the southeastern US quickly on Sunday evening.
Main theme of the near term period will be one last day of well above normal temperatures as another cold front approaches in area. Rain chances will largely stay of the forecast are through the afternoon hours, but by Sunday night expect increasing chances for rain with the highest probabilities across Alabama.
Locally, we are seeing WAA from the SW flow aloft from the trough, but northeasterly sfc flow from the high to our north that is also providing a low level pocket of drier air. Temps at this hour are above freezing across the TN Valley (mid to upper 30s), so do not expect any freezing rain, but can't rule out a flurry or two mainly out in NW AL where it's closer to the freezing line. Generally sunny skies will make for a warmer day to end the month of February, as highs rise into the mid 50s to around 60.
Lows will be near climo SE of the Natchez Trace in the low- mid 40s while below in the NW into the mid-upper 30s. Sunday: As the base of that lagging trough axis swings in Sun, rain shield will gradually shift E-SE & dry air/subsidence will move in the wake. With NE winds/CAA, low stratus & another cool thermal trough, another challenging thermo gradient & temp fcst is expected. temps will drop to below freezing for the NWrn half of the CWA.
Even with all that late February sunshine ( note the total solar radiation in ly/day for late February is about 2x what it is in early January), it will not get all that warm, most locations will not have high temperatures above freezing today. The snow will taper off and end by this afternoon as surface ridging builds in with drying and subsidence. The northern stream dominates the next few days with fast northwest flow between western ridging and an upper low over eastern Canada. on Sunday a low moves across southern Canada with a trailing cold front extending through the Great Lakes.
1254 PM EST Sat Feb 26 2022 High pressure will prevail through the weekend. A dry cold front will cross the region Sunday night.
Perhaps a touch warmer around Stanley where high clouds will arrive late tonight. Models are not showing widespread fog or stratus developing tonight which would help keep temperatures warmer. A weak trough will pass through the region on Sunday. This system should bring an end to the bitter cold as highs for Sunday look to be about 5 degrees warmer. Sunday night lows are noticeably warmer with lows in the teens for most areas except for possibly in the Bear Lake region.
Another quiet morning across South FL as high pressure continues to dominate. A stout ridge of high pressure remains entrenched over South Florida, allowing for mostly dry conditions to preside over the region through today. A subtle east/northeast wind shift today will allow for slightly cooler conditions than what has been observed along the east coast in recent days, as maximum temperatures in the upper 70s/lower 80s are expected across east coast metropolitan locations today. This slight southeasterly wind shift will allow for advection over warmer temperatures; maximum temperatures in the lower 80s are likely along the east coast, and mid/upper 80s expected elsewhere.
1235 PM EST Sat Feb 26 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge on the west coast and a trough in the Rockies and a broad trough across eastern Canada. Temps above freezing are possible across much of the area today as warmer air ahead of an approaching cold front from the north moves in. While mostly sunny skies and weak WAA should allow temps across much of the area to possibly get into the mid-30s for a high, decided to lower temps from the previous forecast as the snowpack (especially across the Lake Superior lake-effect snow belts) should deter temps from getting much above freezing. Tonight, the cold front pushes into Upper MI. Behind the cold front, expect lake- effect snow (LES) mainly in the NW wind lake-effect snow belts, with the LES continuing through Sunday.
1126 AM CST Sat Feb 26 2022 Went ahead and removed mention of freezing drizzle across western north Texas for the rest of the morning/early afternoon. Just too dry with only detectable/reported drizzle or freezing drizzle down closer to I-20. Temperatures continue to warm late this morning and most of the area should be at or above freezing by noon. A portion of western north TX could get some freezing drizzle this morning. As this light precipitation moves into OK, temperatures are expected to be above freezing, so an precipitation that falls should be rain.
Temperatures will drop to near or just below freezing overnight, returning the possibility of some mixed winter precipitation types across central and southern portions of the forecast area. Greatest focus for precip will be across the southern half of the state this morning with some light sleet/freezing rain possible for a few hours. Temperatures will warm above freezing, but probably remain in the 30s for many during the day. As an H500 trough nears the state precip will become more widespread.
Showers associated with the trough will mostly remain north of the area today with occasional passing rain expected only in our northwest counties. As the trough advances eastward, rain chances will further increase across our northwest this evening as light rain spreads across the area overnight and into tomorrow morning.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) A minor short wave trough will pass over the southern Rockies and central plains states through the next 36 hours. This will act to (finally) scour out the low clouds from the eastern Permian Basin and western Low Rolling Plains tonight.
Temperatures this morning are running a few degrees warmer compared to the past several days and are currently in the 30s to 40s region-wide. This is as the air mass aloft begins to warm along with an increase in high clouds streaming inland ahead of the mid/upper level trough approaching the Pacific Northwest. While these high cloud will limit warming potential, still expecting afternoon temperatures to be warmer compared to previous days as well. It's a slow start to the warming trend as temperatures are only a few degrees warmer than this time yesterday. Highs are expected to peak right around average for this time of year, but again just a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Saturday night will see a trough pass through northern California, which could offer a few chances for light rain.
314 PM EST Sat Feb 26 2022 Lake clouds and flurries have diminished this afternoon as a push of dry and slightly warmer air under the southwest flow advanced across srn Lake Mi. There will be some shallow low level frontal forcing along the cold front as it pushes south into the area.
146 PM MST Sat Feb 26 2022 Upper trough axis continues to gradually shift eastward, as an upper ridge builds over the western CONUS. At the surface, broad troughing covers the region, with high pressure over western WY. As warmer air advects into our area ahead of the wave, temperatures Sunday will rise into the 40s and 50s.
932 AM PST Sat Feb 26 2022 Dry conditions are expected through this afternoon with warmer temperatures.
Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower 30s in portions of the Hill Country to the lower 40s near the Rio Grande. With clearing skies, light winds, and dry air tomorrow night, lows will be near of below freezing across the entire region.
148 PM CST Sat Feb 26 2022 Sunny conditions will continue across the area the remainder of the afternoon, and high temperatures should end up in the lower 30s for most areas. On Sunday an upper level trough will begin to dig in over the eastern Great Lakes and into New England. This should act to shift the surface frontal trough of low pressure southward across our area during the day. There should not be much of a push of colder air into our area in the wake of this front, so temperatures Sunday afternoon should warm above freezing into the mid to upper 30s under mostly sunny skies.
Low-level moisture will be a bit more stubborn to erode across the southern Rolling Plains this afternoon keeping this low cloud deck in place for much of the afternoon.
245 PM CST Sat Feb 26 2022 In the mid/upper levels, a southern branch trof should brush by to our south Saturday night into Sunday. It still looks as though a positively tilted northern branch trof pushing east into the Mid MS River Valley will help to keep most of the precip shunted off into TN/AL/MS region.
The only aviation concerns through tonight will be the low-end potential for MVFR/IFR ceilings to develop across our east and move into VLD and/or ABY.
Behind the trof axis skies are expected to clear out from northwest to southeast late tonight into early Sunday morning. an upper level ridge of high pressure is progged to develop over the Southwest U.
However, some weak mid-level height falls later tonight courtesy of shearing trough could be enough to enhance lift for more than just drizzle at times.
250 PM EST Sat Feb 26 2022 Weak high pressure will hold over the area through Sunday with rather light flow allowing a decent afternoon bay/sea breeze each afternoon.
GAH MORNING DISCUSSION: Upper level ridging over the western U.
After a cool start in the 20s to around 30 degrees, highs today will likely only be in the low to mid 40s at lower elevations, generally 5 to 10 degrees cooler than normal. This will be due to a fairly weak open wave of low pressure moving across the Southeast US tonight into tomorrow that interacts with some moisture drawn up from the Gulf of Mexico.
An upper level ridge axis is moving east through the area today. High clouds are moving in as well, as southwest flow on the backside of the ridge axis brings in high-level moisture. A weak trough will move through the southwest flow Sunday, spreading light precipitation mainly across the higher terrain.
Some flurries and/or perhaps a few snow showers could emerge there through dawn, thanks to an approaching upper trough aligning with WSWrly LES. Temps above freezing are possible across much of the area today as warmer air ahead of an approaching cold front from the north moves in. While mostly sunny skies and weak WAA should allow temps across much of the area to possibly get into the mid-30s for a high, decided to lower temps from the previous forecast as the snowpack (especially across the Lake Superior lake-effect snow belts) should deter temps from getting much above freezing. Tonight, the cold front pushes into Upper MI. Behind the cold front, expect lake- effect snow (LES) mainly in the NW wind lake-effect snow belts, with the LES continuing through Sunday.
212 PM CST Sat Feb 26 2022 Early afternoon water vapor imagery showing a shearing upper trough from the Great Lakes into the far southwest states with an amplifying ridge over the Pacific Northwest.
1131 AM CST Sat Feb 26 2022 (The rest of today ) Extensive mid/high clouds continue across much of southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this morning in advance of approaching upper trough axis. Still a low chance that some of this precip could briefly transition to a wintry mix, mainly in the higher terrain areas.
In areas across the eastern plains where there isn't snow cover, temperatures will likely reach the low 40s so high temperatures were increased a few degrees. Breezy NW flow off the Cheyenne Ridge will extend onto the NE plains in the afternoon. Mostly clear skies will support a cool night although slightly warmer than the previous. With snow cover and an inversion in place, the high mountain valleys may get quite a bit colder than surrounding areas (teens to 20s below zero). For Sunday, high pressure ridge aloft will be over Colorado with light northerly flow aloft.
The associated ridge axis will continue to build across much of our forecast area this afternoon, and will result in a continued light northerly to northeasterly surface flow over most of our region. Highs this afternoon may only reach into the mid to upper 50s over interior southeast MS and southwest AL, in the 60s along the I-65 corridor, and as warm as the lower to mid 70s in the western FL panhandle where there will be plentiful sunshine.
Central Kansas could some clouds linger today that could keep highs a bit cooler than expected. Generally, highs will be in the upper 30s low 40s area wide, so even though it will still be cool, it's still warmer than what we have seen previous days.
220 PM EST Sat Feb 26 2022 High pressure will nose into the Commonwealth this weekend, then a cold front will sweep southeast across the state Sunday evening.
High pressure remains anchored to the region for the remainder of the day, allowing for dry conditions and mostly sunny skies. Temperatures tonight once again above average, with forecast lows in the low 60s across western/interior areas and upper 60s to near 70 along the east coast.
946 AM MST Sat Feb 26 2022 Sfc analysis at this hour shows high pressure centered over the Middle MS Valley with a sfc cyclone across nrn AB/MB. A trailing sfc trof extends swwd into the lee of the nrn Rockies, with weak indications of troughing as far south as the nrn High Plains. WV imagery depicts broad troughing over the wrn to cntrl CONUS, with embedded waves evident over the cntrl Rockies/Plains and digging into MT/ID.
Temperatures responded by warming into the low 40s as a broad area of high pressure remained centered over the region. Even warmer temperatures are expected on Sunday as breezes finally return from the south. As upper ridging builds in from the west, continued cyclonic flow over the southeast conus will force northerly trajectories across the Gulf of Mexico for several days in a row.
Broad high pressure at the surface will continue to bring dry and stable conditions to the area as it pushes eastward overnight. An advancing upper trough, stretching from the Four- Corners region up to the Great Lakes as of this afternoon, will bring a weak cold front tomorrow. Central Indiana will remain between an upper trough to the northeast and some upper ridging across the southwestern USA. A few systems will move through the upper trough, clipping central Indiana as they pass.
245 PM CST Sat Feb 26 2022 Summary: A cold front will be dropping south this evening with the chance of a few flurries across northern MN.
306 PM EST Sat Feb 26 2022 High pressure will move south of the region tonight into Sunday. A dry cold front will then cross the region Sunday night.
A cold front moving through the area today will bring a bit of breeziness to the area, making the below normal temperatures feel even colder.
A cold front pressing southeast through Quebec/eastern Ontario though any effects will be relegated well north through east of CWA into Lower Great Lakes. Broad eastern Canadian/northeast CONUS based trough through much of the forecast period.
1139 AM EST Sat Feb 26 2022 High pressure will prevail through the weekend. A dry cold front will cross the region Sunday night.
645 PM EST Sat Feb 26 2022 Dry weather returns today under building high pressure. Snow showers will return late Sunday with the next cold front. Sunday should be dry for most of the day as the high shifts east of the region in response to an digging nrn stream trough near the Great Lakes/Ontario. Broken, weakening snow bands are expected to quickly advance into our region from the north Sunday evening with the passage of the trough and its associated cold front. Isolated snow showers, in the wake of the cold front, are expected to continue after dark Sunday.
On Sunday, a weak back-door cold front will sag towards the eastern CWA, and scattered low cloud cover may follow. Nearer the upper- trough and cooler air aloft, locations east of the James River Valley will remain in the 20s for highs. Low cloud cover gains in coverage Sunday evening, as does high cloud cover as a low pressure system approaches. Patchy fog could develop especially across areas that stay clear, considering the light winds and extra moisture in the low-levels from melting snow, but confidence is too low to include in the grids at this time.
426 PM MST Sat Feb 26 2022 Upper trough axis continues to gradually shift eastward, as an upper ridge builds over the western CONUS. At the surface, broad troughing covers the region, with high pressure over western WY. As warmer air advects into our area ahead of the wave, temperatures Sunday will rise into the 40s and 50s.
A weak weather system will bring cooler temperatures along with a chance for precipitation to much of the area toward the end of the week. With dew points returning to the freezing point of 32 degrees, overnight low will have a much tougher time reaching the freezing mark by Sunday morning. However, upper-air ensemble analysis is not projecting to return of below freezing temperatures. While Cluster Analysis shows a strong signal toward the introduction of a trough, its depth is still in question. Ensemble do not hint toward the return of the West Coast Ridge until after day seven.
Beautiful weekend, with much warmer temperatures this week due to high pressure building into the region.
A weak but dry disturbance will move across CO tonight but will have little affect on the sensible weather other than to keep lee troughing across the plains and enhanced westerly drainage winds along the lower eastern slopes and portions of the I-25 corridor. This should keep temperatures warmer tonight for these areas though interior valleys like San Luis and the Upper Rio Grande will see another round of efficient radiational cooling and low temperatures in the negative values. Otherwise, tomorrow should be dry and warmer with light winds.
A weak cold frontal passage during the overnight and early morning hours will see an increase in cloud cover and some snow flurries, though little if any snow accumulations are expected. Breezy winds before sunset may bring minor drifting impacts, but so far there haven't been any visibility restrictions from older snow being lofted likely due to the warmer temperatures and marginal nature of winds. Temperatures should be a bit cooler Sunday due to the frontal passage (still in the teens to 20s), with coldest temps where stratus layer (and flurries) may linger.
The cool northwest flow aloft will begin to shift as an upper level ridge builds across much of the Intermountain West. The factors that prompted the issuance of the High Wind Watch are the increasing 750-700mb winds (~45kt), mean flow aloft veering into a more favorable vector, and the large omega values developing along the leeside of the Laramie Range. With ridging building, 700mb temperatures are expected to significantly warm and spread across much of SE WY and the NE Panhandle. Downsloping winds will also help support a more significant warming trend for areas east of the Laramie range, where temperatures are expected to shoot up into the low 50s tomorrow afternoon.
A weak cold front will move southeast through the area later tonight, with winds shifting to the northwest for Sunday and weakening through the day. Despite the cold frontal passage, highs Sunday should remain in the lower to perhaps middle 30s, as the snowpack may limit some of the warming.
Early afternoon water vapor imagery showing a shearing upper trough from the Great Lakes into the far southwest states with an amplifying ridge over the Pacific Northwest.
939 PM EST Sat Feb 26 2022 High pressure will move south of the region tonight into Sunday. A dry cold front will then cross the region Sunday night.
High pressure will dominate the weather pattern through midweek with temperatures rising to well above normal levels well into the 60s by midweek. Active weather could return for the later part of the week accompanied by cooler temperatures. Dry conditions under building high pressure will quickly take back over Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Temperatures will be considerably warmer Sunday despite the cloud cover across northern Nevada. Highs will be up to 10 degrees warmer than today reaching into the 40s and 50s.
840 PM EST Sat Feb 26 2022 High pressure will maintain fair conditions into Sunday, followed by a cold front sweeping southeast across the state Sunday evening.
In the mid/upper levels, a southern branch trof should brush by to our south Saturday night into Sunday. It still looks as though a positively tilted northern branch trof pushing east into the Mid MS River Valley will help to keep most of the precip shunted off into TN/AL/MS region.
556 PM CST Sat Feb 26 2022 Summary: A cold front will be dropping south this evening with the chance of a few flurries across northern MN.
634 PM EST Sat Feb 26 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge on the west coast and a trough in the Rockies and a broad trough across eastern Canada. A cold front will drop southward across the area this evening. Sunday night will be cold with high pressure overhead initially.
/issued 313 PM CST Sat Feb 26 2022/ Current synoptic set up shows a trough pushing out of the western CONUS with a weak frontal boundary to our northwest. Trough will shove the weak front through early morning Sunday as it moves east.
313 PM CST Sat Feb 26 2022 Current synoptic set up shows a trough pushing out of the western CONUS with a weak frontal boundary to our northwest. Trough will shove the weak front through early morning Sunday as it moves east.
A weak disturbance is expected to traverse the Northern Rockies on Sunday causing the ridge of high pressure to flatten. The flattening of the ridge will allow a significant plume of moisture to start to stream into the Northern Rockies.
624 PM EST Sat Feb 26 2022 Increasing rain chances will continue into Sunday as low pressure develops offshore. High pressure wedging in from the north will remain through the period. Assuming the overnight hours turn cloudy enough the area should not see quite the gradient in temperatures as today's highs and most areas should dip into the low to mid 40s. Rain chances spread NW to SE across the area on Sunday as some very weak isentropic upglide gives way to PVA and height falls ahead of a very sheared out trough. A cold front dropping southward out of central Canada will approach the southeastern US quickly on Sunday evening.
Flow around the high was bringing southwesterly winds to our region. Spring Like Weather to Start the Week: A gradually building upper level ridge, warming 850 mb temperatures and favorable conditions for boundary layer mixing will bring considerably warmer weather to our region this week.
Another wave ripples through the upper-level long wave ridging overhead and is forecast to pass to our north, directed at the Pacific Northwest.
Downstream end of Pacific moisture cresting the upper ridge will reach our area late tomorrow bringing some increase in cirrus, but still tranquil weather overall. Slightly warmer, too, but most significant positive temperature anomaly plume will hold off until after tomorrow. Broad high pressure at the surface will continue to bring dry and stable conditions to the area as it pushes eastward overnight. An advancing upper trough, stretching from the Four- Corners region up to the Great Lakes as of this afternoon, will bring a weak cold front tomorrow. Central Indiana will remain between an upper trough to the northeast and some upper ridging across the southwestern USA. A few systems will move through the upper trough, clipping central Indiana as they pass.