Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper level ridge will build into the region through Tuesday with mostly sunny skies and patchy fog today.
Despite plenty of sunshine today and this afternoon, snowpack has remained in place as air temperatures remain below freezing for most locations. Quiet conditions and dry weather will continue through the weekend as the strong upper level ridge persists across the western US. Plenty of warm air advection into the central Plains as a result of this high will allow for a significant warming trend to happen through the week.
1011 AM MST Mon Dec 16 2019 Western NOAM ridge will shift east this week, supporting mild conds by mid week on. Frontside of the ridge will begin to creep east tonight with WAA ensuing over the west. Mean ridging expected the remainder of the week with warming temps.
1012 AM MST Mon Dec 16 2019 High pressure has kept things quiet but chilly across southeastern Wyoming and western Nebraska this morning. Starting tonight, the area of high pressure will begin to intensify slightly as it wobbles through the intermountain west. Along the eastern periphery of the ridge, a fairly strong mid level jet of 30 to 40 kts is expected to develop. While surface pressure gradients are strong, some question marks surround the nature of the high wind threat. As a result of the uncertainty, have left the High Wind Watch as is and only made minimal changes to the overall forecast.
Seasonally cool temperatures are expected the next couple days as an upper-level trof swings across our part of the country.
Freezing line runs from just north of Fayetteville southwest to McAlester. For this afternoon, temperatures will continue to fall this afternoon across southeast Oklahoma and portions of western Arkansas, or remain steady north of the freezing line. Given current thermal profiles, it will mainly be freezing drizzle or snow.
1058 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019 Low pressure along frontal boundary stretches from Texas into the lower Tennessee Valley of West Tennessee. Warm front has moved north across the northern sections of the area with band of showers that was over the northern plateau and southwest Virginia has now lifted into Kentucky. Winds at the higher elevations of the Smoky Mountains still gusting to around 50 mph so will continue Wind Advisory and send out an update. Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 46 49 29 / 40 90 50 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 47 52 29 / 30 90 80 10 Oak Ridge, TN 67 45 51 27 / 40 90 70 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 49 55 27 / 30 90 90 20 TN.
High pressure will build across the state for the first half of the week. A mainly dry cold front will cross the state midweek. This will be followed by building heights and upper level ridging.
430 PM MST Mon Dec 16 2019 Dry and warmer conditions expected through the middle of the work week.
Have readings steady or only slowly falling for a while this evening before the cold front arrives later tonight. Increasing signal for snowfall, but amounts are going to be light with even the highest ensemble members only around 1". Large scale pattern transitions to long wave troughing across the central US, and rising heights and eventually shift in active track will support predominantly dry and warming conditions.
Mostly cloudy and cold conditions were found across the region this afternoon under an axis of weak high pressure reaching from Nebraska eastward across northern Iowa. This was occurring in an area of lift and moisture return ahead of a positive tilted upper level trough moving through the Central Plains. These clouds may advance south- southeast into the forecast area tonight following the passing upper trough. Tuesday, will optimistically go with a clearing trend, counting on the subsidence in the northwest flow aloft and favorable westerly surface winds to erode the low clouds. There is a secondary cold front arriving about Tuesday night but this will be moisture starved and the forcing is in the Great Lakes region.
A 500mb short wave trough continues to pivot and lift northeast off the southern Plains. However, to the west, much more robust moisture has resulted in an increase and fill in of moisture, with snow overtaking where freezing drizzle was evident this morning. Through Tuesday, temperatures will attempt to climb above freezing through the day, with breaks of sunshine possible.
952 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2019 Ridge will remain in place across the area as a cold front continues to move through the southeast U. This stronger flow just off the surface will keep mild conditions in place overnight, with min temps ranging from the low 70s along coastal locations south of the Cape, and mid-upper 60s farther north and inland.
At 3PM the cold front was located just off the upper Texas coast and has pushed through Galveston.
322 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019 A temporary break in the clouds will allow the sun to come out this afternoon, but clouds will quickly return this evening and bring a chance for light snow as a weak cold front crosses. A second stronger cold front arrives on Tuesday morning and will allow a cold air mass to take hold overnight allowing temperatures to sink into the -20 to -30F range which will bring wind chills into the -30 regime over much of the area with -40 to -50 possible in the Arrowhead as wind speeds will be a little higher there as high pressure builds.
We are seeing crisp blue skies this afternoon as we sit under the ridge axis. This ridge axis will push to our east this evening into the overnight as a short wave trough approaches the region from the west. This will once again bring the chance for frost for much of the valley as lows fall into the low to mid 30s. Dry conditions are expected to persist throughout Tuesday but we will see an increase in mid- level clouds as we see some weak warm air advection ahead of the approaching short wave trough.
328 PM MST Mon Dec 16 2019 High pressure ridging will prevail over the Rockies and nearby high plains the next days.
721 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2019 Early evening water vapor satellite imagery is showing a band of moisture northwest of Florida associated with an approaching cold front that will be the focus of the forecast for the next few days. An approaching cold front will bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening, then increasing winds and seas behind the front.
High pressure will be the dominant feature over the area tonight. A cold front will slide across the area on Tuesday, with fairly strong high pressure to follow for Tuesday night. The period starts out with warm air advecting into the area as ridging aloft builds across the region.
Slow and gradual warming trend then settles in as high pressure builds in from the west.
High pressure will begin to build over the Northern Rockies through mid-week, but with it comes a few impacts that will develop as time passes. Before it does, moisture riding over the ridge axis will likely produce light nuisance snowfall along Highway 2 east of Kalispell to Marias Pass and the surrounding mountains. As the ridge strengthens during the day Tuesday and skies have a better chance at clearing Tuesday night, widespread fog will become the next concern.
Widespread sub-freezing temperatures are expected and some areas along the Rio Grande and coastal plains will likely see the first freeze of the Fall. We will need to keep an eye for possible cloud cover associated with a weak, elongated upper level trough. However, all levels of the atmosphere should remain dry and this should prevent significant cloud cover from developing with this trough.
510 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019 MVFR ceilings should gradually clear out this evening, though there is a chance the low ceilings may linger a bit longer than forecast over central and north central Oklahoma. In the wake of today's departing mid-level trough, relatively benign weather is expected through the forecast period. For Tuesday, warmer weather is expected with more insolation. Temperatures will still be cooler than average (40s deg F) with northwest surface winds.
219 PM MST Mon Dec 16 2019 Dry and warmer conditions expected through the middle of the work week.
646 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2019 Deteriorating aviation weather conditions are expected through the night as a cold front approaches from the west.
304 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019 Forecast highlights in the short term period will be chances for light snow north central and east tonight/Tues AM and colder temperatures tomorrow associated with a backdoor cold front. This will cause a back door cold front to approach from the northeast, acting to develop a strong baroclinic zone across north central and eastern areas of the state late tonight through Tuesday morning. It will be much warmer farther west, with the far southwest corner of the state seeing highs near 30.
246 PM MST Mon Dec 16 2019 Upper trough is crossing the central Rockies into the central to northern Great Plains. Backside of the trough has now pushed into the Dakotas, with northwest flow across the area. High amplitude ridge has moved into the western CONUS.
Expect clearing skies tonight, with weak ridging expected to move over the area. Until the cloud cover clears, pinning down where the coldest temps from the snow cover will be located, will be difficult, but expect areas over western KS and places with little snow cover to be about 10 degrees warmer on Tue than areas with snow cover and especially on Wed. Expect max temps to continue to climb well above normal going into the weekend, as a mid level ridge pushes across the plains.
823 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019 Skies are clearing from northwest to southeast in the wake of a cold front. At 3PM the cold front was located just off the upper Texas coast and has pushed through Galveston.
539 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019 A temporary break in the clouds will allow the sun to come out this afternoon, but clouds will quickly return this evening and bring a chance for light snow as a weak cold front crosses. A second stronger cold front arrives on Tuesday morning and will allow a cold air mass to take hold overnight allowing temperatures to sink into the -20 to -30F range which will bring wind chills into the -30 regime over much of the area with -40 to -50 possible in the Arrowhead as wind speeds will be a little higher there as high pressure builds.
315 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019 High pressure will be the dominant feature over the area tonight. A cold front will slide across the area on Tuesday, with fairly strong high pressure to follow for Tuesday night. The period starts out with warm air advecting into the area as ridging aloft builds across the region.
Increasing signal for snowfall, but amounts are going to be light with even the highest ensemble members only around 1". Large scale pattern transitions to long wave troughing across the central US, and rising heights and eventually shift in active track will support predominantly dry and warming conditions.
/Issued 230 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019/ The freezing line has pushed into southeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas this afternoon, currently located near a McAlester, Bunch, Lowell line. Areas of freezing drizzle will continue north of this line, mixing with light snow across northeast Oklahoma. Although only a light glaze is expected, untreated bridges will likely be slick, including a few roads, especially in areas where temperatures have fallen into the upper 20s.
514 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: Mostly IFR conditions will be prevalent tonight with widespread thunderstorms in advance of a cold front moving through the area. The frontal boundary is analyzed across the ArkLaMiss Delta, with isolated supercell structures further south across the Highway 84 corridor & more linear QLCS structures closer to the surface frontal axis.
/issued 222 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019/ The cold front that stalled out in the vicinity of the Pecos River this morning is progressing south to the Rio Grande this afternoon, yielding a day of below normal temperatures for most of the area. Temperatures this afternoon are still on track to top out in the upper 40s and 50s for most locations, and warmer (60s and 70s) closer to the Rio Grande. Light northerly to northeasterly post frontal winds tonight along with mostly clear skies will lead to efficient radiational cooling, with lows expected to dip into the 20s for most of the region, and temperatures in the lower to middle 30s confined to the Rio Grande Valley.
535 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019 Convection has moved e of the area this evening along with the cold front, leaving behind only low cigs and some reduced vsbys. /Tonight through Tuesday Night/ Severe threat to gradually diminish through the late afternoon hours as cold front drives east across north Louisiana. A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect through 6 PM across portions of East Texas and north Louisiana in response to strong northwest winds filtering in behind the frontal boundary as cold high pressure rebuilds areawide. Overnight low temperatures forecast to fall to near freezing by daybreak.
High pressure will build across the state for the first half of the week.
As this occurs, a strong cold front will push southeastward, and should be completely through the local forecast area by sunrise tomorrow morning. Otherwise, measurable precipitation will end from NW-to-SE with the passage of the cold front overnight, although abundant low stratus clouds and boundary layer mixing will prevent temperatures from falling below the u30s-l40s. Much cooler in the short term period compared to today post front.
Reports of freezing fog causing slippery roads have come in as well. Latest hi-res model output is showing expansion of the lower visibilities to the east as stratus slowly erodes from the west.
141 AM MST Tue Dec 17 2019 Western NOAM ridge will shift east this week, supporting mild conds, esp the second half of the week. Front side of the ridge is shifting east with WAA ensuing over the west. Mean ridging expected the remainder of the week with warming temps.
1004 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019 The weather is currently much quieter than it's been for the past several hours as the low pressure system has now moved out of the County Warning Area (CWA). High pressure will begin to build in behind the system with northerly flow; meaning, a much colder airmass will continue to move in for the Mid-South. We'll see much cooler temperatures tomorrow with high temperatures 10-15 degrees below normal.
333 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019 A wintry mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain continue through part of the day with crossing low pressure.
Base of the upper trof still well back w over the TX Panhandle, and warm swly flow aloft continues to overrun the shallow cold air. /issued 535 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019/ Convection has moved e of the area this evening along with the cold front, leaving behind only low cigs and some reduced vsbys. /Tonight through Tuesday Night/ Severe threat to gradually diminish through the late afternoon hours as cold front drives east across north Louisiana. A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect through 6 PM across portions of East Texas and north Louisiana in response to strong northwest winds filtering in behind the frontal boundary as cold high pressure rebuilds areawide. Overnight low temperatures forecast to fall to near freezing by daybreak.
/issued 1004 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019/ The weather is currently much quieter than it's been for the past several hours as the low pressure system has now moved out of the County Warning Area (CWA). High pressure will begin to build in behind the system with northerly flow; meaning, a much colder airmass will continue to move in for the Mid-South. We'll see much cooler temperatures tomorrow with high temperatures 10-15 degrees below normal.
VCSH after 18Z and then VCTS by late afternoon through evening as cold front pushes across the area. /issued 721 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2019/ Early evening water vapor satellite imagery is showing a band of moisture northwest of Florida associated with an approaching cold front that will be the focus of the forecast for the next few days. An approaching cold front will bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening, then increasing winds and seas behind the front.
Quiet weather is expected for the rest of the day, with highs in the lower 30s.
840 PM MST Mon Dec 16 2019 Dry and warmer conditions expected through the middle of the work week.
922 PM MST Mon Dec 16 2019 Upper trough is crossing the central Rockies into the central to northern Great Plains. Backside of the trough has now pushed into the Dakotas, with northwest flow across the area. High amplitude ridge has moved into the western CONUS.
1018 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2019 Line of convection is currently moving through the forecast area as of 10 PM EST ahead of an advancing cold front. Chattanooga Airport, TN 52 52 29 46 / 100 40 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 53 29 43 / 80 80 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 47 52 28 43 / 90 50 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 55 26 39 / 90 100 20 0 TN.
There will some degree of additional warming in this downslope flow regime, in spite of the low sun angles this time of year. The snow should easily melt there today but temperatures may be held to the low 40s.
A temporary break in the clouds will allow the sun to come out this afternoon, but clouds will quickly return this evening and bring a chance for light snow as a weak cold front crosses. A second stronger cold front arrives on Tuesday morning and will allow a cold air mass to take hold overnight allowing temperatures to sink into the -20 to -30F range which will bring wind chills into the -30 regime over much of the area with -40 to -50 possible in the Arrowhead as wind speeds will be a little higher there as high pressure builds.
218 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2019 The upper level trough that brought the wintry weather to the region on Monday, is currently moving east through the region early this morning. There will be the potential for some freezing fog if dense fog can develop.
240 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2019 Surface ridging will be slow to budge today.
A second disturbance moving along the frontal zone south of the Ohio Valley will bring more wintry precipitation to the area this afternoon and overnight, before dry weather returns as high pressure builds into the area for the remainder of the forecast period. South of I-70 seeing a mix of snow and light freezing rain, but pavement temps have remained above freezing there thus far. High pressure will then begin to build into the area and produce dry conditions through the remainder of the short term. Temperatures will again turn cold in as Arctic high pressure settles over the area mid week.
/issued 510 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019/ MVFR ceilings should gradually clear out this evening, though there is a chance the low ceilings may linger a bit longer than forecast over central and north central Oklahoma. /issued 235 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019/ In the wake of today's departing mid-level trough, relatively benign weather is expected through the forecast period. For Tuesday, warmer weather is expected with more insolation. Temperatures will still be cooler than average (40s deg F) with northwest surface winds.
Base of the upper trof still well back w over the TX Panhandle, and warm swly flow aloft continues to overrun the shallow cold air. /Tonight through Tuesday Night/ Severe threat to gradually diminish through the late afternoon hours as cold front drives east across north Louisiana. A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect through 6 PM across portions of East Texas and north Louisiana in response to strong northwest winds filtering in behind the frontal boundary as cold high pressure rebuilds areawide. Overnight low temperatures forecast to fall to near freezing by daybreak.
Temperatures will warm as the low clouds continue to slowly sink southward this morning.
A cold front pushing across the area tonight will bring a period of moderate rainfall and a few thunderstorms to KGPT, KASD, KHDC, KNEW, KMSY, and KHUM between 06z and 12z.
The pressure gradient between an Eastern Pacific storm system and a ridge of high pressure over the Great Basin will be responsible for strong, gusty east to southeast winds in most of Kern County today into tonight.
This trend will continue through sunrise, before the trof of Low pressure behind this system finally slides into the mid-Mississippi River Valley. This trof is draped from the Low core in central Canada, through the Midwest, then flattening out toward the lower Plains. which is forecast to last throughout the remainder of this week, as a ridge begins to develop. Colder temperatures will slide into the region overnight as High pressure in the Rockies, helps northwesterly winds arrive tonight. The colder temperatures will continue into mid-week, before High pressure shifts to the east coast, and ridging returns at the mid-levels.
The high-resolutions forecast models seem to have a good handle on the progression of this line and show it finally exiting out area this afternoon. Strong NW winds begin pushing into the state behind this front and also bring with it a much cooler airmass. Currently we are seeing temps in the 60s across the area but those temps will begin to fall shortly after sunrise with the cooler air mass advecting into the region.
An arctic cold front, currently entering North Dakota, is expected to briefly back into ncntl Nebraska tonight. A series of low pressure systems will track through srn Canada drawing mild Pacific air through the Central Plains. The only potential problem would be if the low pressure systems tracking through Canada become strong enough to send Canadian air into Nebraska.
416 AM MST Tue Dec 17 2019 An upper-level ridge is forecast to progress eastward over the Central High Plains today and Wednesday which will provide drier conditions under mostly sunny skies.
The primary concern early this morning remains dense fog along and east of the Missouri River where visibility is occasionally down to 1/4 mile with temperatures in the lower 20s. Otherwise, once we lose the fog later this morning, the remainder of the day looks good with highs in the lower to mid 30s, and westerly winds 5 to 10 mph.
The only exception will be early this morning, as a few pockets of extremely shallow moist upslope flow continue in the higher terrain. Forecast soundings indicate that moisture in the lowest levels should be completely eradicated by the late morning hours. On Wednesday, a ridge of high pressure moves over the southwestern CONUS.
We'll see some sunshine today as a high pressure ridge briefly sits over the area. An upper level trough though will bring 700-500MB positive vorticity advection along with a cold front late this afternoon and into the evening.
There will some degree of additional warming in this downslope flow regime, in spite of the low sun angles this time of year.
One more cold day is on tap for Wednesday as high pressure will be centered over the area. Expect high temperatures ranging from the single digits above zero in central Wisconsin to the lower 20s in northeast Iowa and far southwest Wisconsin. Upper level ridging will then begin to build in for the remainder of the forecast period, with southerly surface flow behind the departing high pressure bringing in warmer air through the weekend.
529 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019 A wintry mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain continue through part of the day with crossing low pressure. A reinforcing cold front should return snow showers on Wednesday. Dry weather should return this evening as low level ridging briefly builds in. Scattered to numerous snow showers are then expected late tonight and Wednesday with a crossing upper trough and reinforcing sfc cold front.
The extended will feature mainly warmer temperatures in comparison to the more recent cold streak, and generally dry conditions.
High pressure will build into the region throughout today.
ample sunshine and warmer temps are expected across the region today. kept the highs down a couple of degrees from the true potential with westerly winds.
/Today through Wednesday/ For today, the low level clouds left in the wake of the cold front yesterday will finally begin to clear around mid-day as the upper trough swings through.