Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
555 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020 A breezy and hot day is in store across central Illinois with afternoon highs topping out in the lower 90s. A band of widely scattered convection has developed along an advancing warm front early this morning. High temperatures will climb into the lower 90s, with peak heat index values reaching 95-100 degrees. Meanwhile, a cold front approaching from the northwest will trigger a line of strong to severe thunderstorms across central Iowa into southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois late this afternoon. The cold front will settle southward into central Illinois and become stationary by Saturday. With upper ridging remaining weak, it appears the boundary will hang around for several days.
Winds will become northerly to northeasterly for most of Nebraska today, but will remain southerly in portions of Kansas ahead of a cold frontal boundary. ranging form the low-mid 80s up north to the mid-upper 90s in the southeast. Areas south of I-80 have the highest chance of seeing rain/thunderstorms.
625 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020 Upper level cyclonic flow we had yesterday morning with the large low pressure system has shifted east of the area with some weak ridging replacing this over the area. For today, models are showing a weak embedded disturbance underneath the ridge axis lifting northeast into eastern OK and AR by midday.
Ridging will continue to build in over the region today. Highs in the afternoon will warm into the upper 80s and some spots even the low 90s. While we are warmer and more humid with PWATS between 1. A weak cold front will begin approaching from the northwest during the weekend, but generally stall as it approaches central IL/IN/OH.
The upper ridge (middle portion of the omega block) will not be particularly robust, with a 592dm 500mb ridge centered to the south, over the over the Gulf of Mexico.
753 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2020 Dry and seasonable conditions are expected today under high pressure. Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances return tonight through the weekend with the approach and passage of a cold front. Maintained categorical to likely POPs north of Route 422, where model consensus indicates the best support for storms with a closer proximity to the low level jet and upper support. The trough, and its associated sfc cold front, is expected to approach and cross the Upper Ohio Valley region Saturday and Saturday night, with showers and thunderstorms likely.
In the meantime, short wave trough over eastern Colorado will begin to lift out to the northeast, dragging a cold front southeastward, making it's way into northwestern Missouri by this afternoon. Otherwise, high temperatures will be a bit cooler on Saturday due to the showers and storms.
Upper ridging will dominate overhead keeping temps in the mid to upper 90s. Upper level ridge axis that has been positioned to our west for quite a while will edge east generally overhead on Saturday as an upper level low pressure system over east central California this morning steers into southern Arizona.
350 AM PDT Fri Jun 26 2020 A weak low pressure system over southern California will bring slight cooling today with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for the San Bernardino County mountain and desert areas for this afternoon.
Surface dewpoints across central and south Texas have climbed into the low to mid 70s, with CAMs showing scattered convection developing and moving north into the area this afternoon and then dissipating this evening.
Strong upper level ridge over Florida will gradually build northward, flatten and expand westward now through the upcoming weekend. Weak disturbances will ride along the western peripherel of the ridge through the weekend bringing POPS back up to the 50 to 60 range.
Highs should be in the lower to middle 80s with northwest winds 15 mph or less. Quiet weather continues tonight with zonal flow aloft morphing into ridging, and southerly return flow developing. S/WV ridge amplifies east of our region on Saturday as a long wave trough further develops across southwestern Canada/Pacific Northwest. Boundary layer temperatures 30C central and 30-33C west will support widespread highs Sat in the low/mid 90s. Model guidance continues to show southwesterly flow aloft increasing Saturday night across the area as deep low pressure forms over the Pacific Northwest.
Morning cloudiness at the coast will give way to mostly sunny skies and possibly some warmer temperatures in the afternoons. Temperatures will climb into the upper 90s to 105+ in some of the warmer interior valleys this afternoon. A cooling trend is expected to kick off this weekend as both deterministic and ensemble guidance show a trough digging southward and deepening over the West Coast this weekend.
Quiet weather continues tonight with zonal flow aloft morphing into ridging, and southerly return flow developing. S/WV ridge amplifies east of our region on Saturday as a long wave trough further develops across southwestern Canada/Pacific Northwest. Boundary layer temperatures 30C central and 30-33C west will support widespread highs Sat in the low/mid 90s. Model guidance continues to show southwesterly flow aloft increasing Saturday night across the area as deep low pressure forms over the Pacific Northwest.
Soundings forecast CAPE values rising into the 1500-2000 J/kg, along with high temps a tad warmer into the mid 80s could result in in a few stronger storms across the area.
Saturday the upper flow shifts from the southwest as the next large midlevel trough sweeps into the Pacific Northwest. This will bring Some good compressional heating to the lower elevations during the afternoon, with many areas of the Big Horn Basin reaching into the 90s. The trough will begin to bring some shower activity into the Yellowstone Park late afternoon, but most activity will not arrive until Saturday night. Saturday night sees the start of southwesterly flow across the forecast area as a trough develops in the Pacific NW.
/issued 327 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020/ An upper ridge to the west will weaken as a low over NV slowly swings east today. This low opens up into a trough as it moves across AZ into NM Saturday.
At the surface, a cold front is oriented from eastern North Dakota through central Nebraska, then westward into northeast Colorado. The surface cold front is expected to move south and east of I-80 today and will assist in being a lifting mechanism for any potential activity. CAMs are showing a decent amount of variance in terms of where the cold front will end up, with some having it along I-80 and others as far south as Nemaha County. Regardless, the latest CAM solutions are showing most of the convection development in southwest Iowa, but chances for storms will likely extend along the cold front.
Mid level high pressure over the region providing subsidence, along with drier than normal air, will lead to hot conditions across our region today. Temperatures reaching the low to mid 90s along the coast, with upper 90s to near 100 inland. But, heat indices still reaching around 101-105 degrees this afternoon, with the highest values across the interior. High pressure providing VFR conditions today, with easterly flow. Hot and dry conditions, as the high pressure ridge axis settles in across the area.
Cool showery weather will arrive later today and an upper trough will move over the region through the weekend.
445 AM MDT Fri Jun 26 2020 Current surface analysis shows cold front now south and east of the forecast area, with showers and storms tapering off in most areas. Weak ridging is in place from western Canada into the Pacific NW.
906 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2020 Dry and seasonable conditions are expected today under high pressure. Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances return tonight through the weekend with the approach and passage of a cold front. Maintained categorical to likely POPs north of Route 422, where model consensus indicates the best support for storms with a closer proximity to the low level jet and upper support. The trough, and its associated sfc cold front, is expected to approach and cross the Upper Ohio Valley region Saturday and Saturday night, with showers and thunderstorms likely.
528 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020 (Today and tonight) On the western periphery of mid-upper High centered over Florida, southerly low-level flow and relatively high PWATs extend northward from the Gulf coast into the Arklatex Region. Current thinking is diminishing/remnant convection from the high terrain to our west may drift into northwest Oklahoma during the evening, diminishing overnight.
A warm front pushing northeast from the Ohio Valley will spread increasing clouds into the region tonight, with late night/ early [Saturday] morning showers/storms likely translating downstream from southeast MI/northern OH across the northern half of CPA in the 06-12Z window. WPC increased the risk of isolated flooding across parts of western PA where model guidance continues to signal the highest areal QPF (1-2").
The exception will be NW Wisconsin where storms should fire this afternoon as the cold front crosses. The area will be under a super ridge that will keep warm to hot temperatures around through the week with muggy conditions ever-present.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the high Sierra and in the Kern county mountains and desert this afternoon into this evening.
Though the pesky longwave upper trough has advanced east of the area, a rather moist airmass remains in place and additional weak mid/upper disturbances remain upstream of the area. Through the remains of the forecast, heat and humidity continue with the upper low in the northeast remaining in place through the end of the week.
At the surface, a slow moving cold front is situated over the James River valley and to the southwest to Chamberlain area. Farther northwest, an upper trough axis is currently moving central ND and southeast MT and expect that to continue east-southeast through the area today. Low level wind shear increases to 30-40 knots Saturday night across much of the forecast area (mainly over western and central counties), as we remain between an elongated trough to our west, and broad area of high pressure over WI. The weak 500mb ridge overhead Saturday afternoon will be mainly to our east, with the next wave moving into western and central SD in advanced of the larger 500mb low across the Pacific Northwest.
Aloft, weak troughing continues slowly moving across the western high Plains and significant lower tropospheric moisture advection across the area will support increasing rainfall from south- to- north today. Abundant cloudiness will suppress highs with afternoon temps in the low- to-mid 80s. By later this evening, a wedge of dry air is progged to rotate around the western periphery of ridging to our east. The larger-scale pattern will change little through the end of the period with ridging entrenched over the eastern Gulf and weak troughing to our west. Moisture will continue funneling in from the southwest, riding around the larger-scale ridge, and increasing instability Saturday afternoon will promote scattered thunderstorms again.
A further shift in the pattern will occur for Saturday, with 500 mb high pressure building in from the east and tropical moisture dropping even further to the point that dry weather will prevail.
The heat will slowly subside over the next few days as high pressure weakens over the area. High pressure aloft will continue to bring hot temperatures and dry conditions again today.
638 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2020 Moisture will increase today as a warm front pivots north through the area.
1121 AM MDT Fri Jun 26 2020 Current surface analysis shows cold front now south and east of the forecast area, with showers and storms tapering off in most areas. Weak ridging is in place from western Canada into the Pacific NW.
Apart from the SAL, moisture will decrease and the ridge will shift into the region which will inhibit the development of showers. These temperatures combined with the humidity will result in heat indices in the lower 100s across the majority of the area.
Weak ridging will continue to dominate through the morning tomorrow. Cannot rule out a brief shower over the higher terrain with daytime heating. By the afternoon tomorrow, the area generally west of Billings will start to be under the influence of the the trough building over the Pacific Northwest. Even with the drier low-levels, as the trough works into the area precipitable water should be increasing.
Thunderstorms will develop across the higher terrain of eastern/southeastern New Mexico this afternoon, but activity is expected to remain west of CNM. /issued 327 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020/ An upper ridge to the west will weaken as a low over NV slowly swings east today. This low opens up into a trough as it moves across AZ into NM Saturday.
200 PM PDT Fri Jun 26 2020 A weak low pressure system over southern California will bring isolated showers or thunderstorms over the eastern San Bernardino Mountains through early evening.
309 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020 Water vapor imagery and upper air analysis is showing a short wave trough moving into the Midwest from the Plains. This short wave will help to push a weak cold front from northwest Iowa down into northern Missouri by early this evening. However, lingering precip and convective debris will likely keep temperatures suppressed in the low to mid 80s.
As mixing is maximized, dewpoints are expected to fall into the lower 40s across the west, with relative humidity there in the lower 20s. Highs should be in the lower to middle 80s with northwest winds 15 mph or less. Quiet weather continues tonight with zonal flow aloft morphing into ridging, and southerly return flow developing. S/WV ridge amplifies east of our region on Saturday as a long wave trough further develops across southwestern Canada/Pacific Northwest. Boundary layer temperatures 30C central and 30-33C west will support widespread highs Sat in the low/mid 90s. Model guidance continues to show southwesterly flow aloft increasing Saturday night across the area as deep low pressure forms over the Pacific Northwest.
An old diffuse cold front will slowly meander northward across the region this afternoon favoring low VFR stratocu for CHA/TYS and cu at TRI. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 85 69 86 70 / 10 40 30 70 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 83 68 82 68 / 10 40 40 70 60 Oak Ridge, TN 68 83 66 82 67 / 10 40 40 70 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 81 65 79 66 / 20 40 50 70 70.
The general troughing pattern across the region will continue to bring good rain chances to the forecast area heading into the weekend. The upper ridge waffles over the next few days with waves passing and a trough axis shifting from South Texas into the midwest by mid week. Looks like a trough in the east and a ridge over the Gulf will keep things the same.
Tonight, similar conditions are expected with the lowered ceilings mainly north of I-10 but MVFR ceilings may also be observed at SGR/HOU. CLL is expected to see the lowest ceilings of around 010 and increasing to the SE at IAH/HOU to 025.
233 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020 (Tonight through Saturday) Showers that were trying to get into the area underneath a relative weakness in the ridge just to our east have been weakening as they entered our southeastern counties.
The heat will slowly subside over the next few days as high pressure weakens over the area. Partly to mostly cloudy conditions across much of southeast Arizona this morning ahead of an upper trough which will push through the state into Saturday. Breezy conditions will pick up this afternoon as the trough progresses southeastward.
At the surface, there is a area low pressure near NE New Mexico with a weak cold front draped to it's west-southwest.
A different story across northern WI with the cold front passing over an area of higher instability. This will keep dry and sunny conditions in the forecast for Saturday with high temperatures remaining above normal in the lower to middle 80s away from the lake, and upper 70s to lower 80s along the lake.
Attention then turns to the north of the area, as convection along a cold front is expected to dive southeast into the area late tonight.
While there are hints of some marginal surface based instability with little to no shear, convergence in the low levels is very weak. Not expecting severe weather but maybe an isolated funnel as the low level wind field is very weak, heating is good and the 0- 3km CAPE is about 100 J/kg. Other than this high pressure will settle in tonight with light winds expected.
1111 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020 A breezy and hot day is in store across central Illinois with afternoon highs topping out in the lower 90s. Current temperatures already in the lower to middle 80s bode well for highs reaching into the 90-95 range across the whole forecast area. A band of widely scattered convection has developed along an advancing warm front early this morning. High temperatures will climb into the lower 90s, with peak heat index values reaching 95-100 degrees. Meanwhile, a cold front approaching from the northwest will trigger a line of strong to severe thunderstorms across central Iowa into southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois late this afternoon. The cold front will settle southward into central Illinois and become stationary by Saturday. With upper ridging remaining weak, it appears the boundary will hang around for several days.
Ridging sets up by Saturday evening, leading to southerly flow and increasing moisture for the second half of the weekend. Not much has changed in messaging with the extended, with a stagnate pattern featuring a broad western NOAM trough and eastern NOAM ridge. This pattern will promote the poleward transport of both heat and humidity, with the weather featuring daily highs near 90 and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s.
part A, the front: as the sfc cold front continues to move south storms are anticipated to start forming along and south of the front around 02-03Z tonight, but could be as early as 00Z.
An old diffuse cold front will slowly meander northward across the region this afternoon favoring low VFR stratocu for CHA/TYS and cu at TRI. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 85 69 86 70 / 10 40 30 70 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 83 68 82 68 / 10 40 40 70 60 Oak Ridge, TN 68 83 66 82 67 / 10 40 40 70 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 81 65 79 66 / 20 40 50 70 70.
High pressure is centered over FL which is bringing SW flow and humid conditions to the region. Temperatures are below normal with cloudy skies and showers keeping temperatures down as high pressure begins to build.
This is keeping afternoon temperatures in the lower to mid 80s so far.
Have adjusted temperatures much cooler this evening to reflect the current temperatures in the lower 70s. Ridging continues to build across the southeast during the second half of the weekend, keeping the stronger disturbances to our north.
The pattern this afternoon is highlighted by a broad subtropical H5 anticyclone centered atop FL while a ridge axis extends northward, all as a large cyclone rotates over eastern Canada and another deepens over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, sprawling high pressure prevails in the vicinity of the aforementioned H5 ridge center while an old diffuse cold front slowly slides back northward as a warm front across the TN Valley and Southern Appalachians. Increasing rain chances for the extended as ridging that was over the forecast area today is suppressed to the south.
Highs tomorrow will be around 90 in the valley and a few degrees warmer to the west and a few degrees cooler to the east. An upper ridge will be in place on Sun, allowing for warmer temps and dry conditions. An upper low will transit into the Northern Rockies at this time, edging closer to the Northern Plains. Finally, the approach of an upper wave/500 mb trough by Wed could provide the de-stabilization/forcing necessary for organized strong to severe convection.
The paucity of convection is due a deep layer ridge across Florida and associated drier air aloft and a fairly broad weak inhibition zone. A ridge lifting northward into North Florida will result in a general increasing trend in wind speeds.
1244 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020 A breezy and hot day is in store across central Illinois with afternoon highs topping out in the lower 90s. Current temperatures already in the lower to middle 80s bode well for highs reaching into the 90-95 range across the whole forecast area. A band of widely scattered convection has developed along an advancing warm front early this morning. High temperatures will climb into the lower 90s, with peak heat index values reaching 95-100 degrees. Meanwhile, a cold front approaching from the northwest will trigger a line of strong to severe thunderstorms across central Iowa into southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois late this afternoon. The cold front will settle southward into central Illinois and become stationary by Saturday. With upper ridging remaining weak, it appears the boundary will hang around for several days.
Mostly clear skies and slightly warmer temperatures today. A trough over SE Alaska will slowly approach the region and bring increased cloudiness late this afternoon into Saturday.
Models suggest a ridge will be over the area through the period with a stalled or slowing moving cold front just to the south of central Indiana.
942 AM MDT Fri Jun 26 2020 Temperatures will rise to around 90 degrees this afternoon as a ridge of high pressure moves overhead. Upper ridge will build over the northern Plains while a trof digs into the Pacific Northwest over the next few days. Lee trof develops into a cold front by Saturday afternoon with weak destabilization expected over central Montana in the afternoon. Although southwest flow aloft will increase with the approaching upper trof to provide shear, low level moisture is lacking.
124 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2020 An upper-level ridge over the region will keep the warm and dry conditions through Saturday afternoon. The primary cold front will arrive Saturday evening into Saturday night.
139 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2020 Dry and seasonable conditions are expected today under high pressure before a series of disturbances bring thunderstorms to the area on Saturday. Models prog another trough axis / warm front will cross this evening, but dry mid-level and boundary-layer air should inhibit widespread precipitation. Consensus among the convection-allowing models (CAMs) indicate that convection should initiate by early afternoon on a trough axis, or what may be the outflow boundary from the overnight storms, somewhere in the vicinity and parallel to the I-70/76 corridor.
1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020 Upper level cyclonic flow we had yesterday morning with the large low pressure system has shifted east of the area with some weak ridging replacing this over the area. For today, models are showing a weak embedded disturbance underneath the ridge axis lifting northeast into eastern OK and AR by midday.
357 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020 Tonight showers affecting northern WI should move out of the area and skies should clear as the upper level trough moves east.
Weak upper ridging is approaching the northern plains. Beneath the upper ridge briefly, tonight will be fairly quiet, and Saturday will be hot and mostly dry. Upper ridge quickly shifts eastward as a Pac NW trough deepens, placing the region beneath southwesterly flow.
A weak convective-induced vorticity maxima was exiting northeast Kansas with southwest winds aloft into the somewhat cooler air associated with the vort max keeping weak, high-based showers going across the northern counties. The continued cloud with this activity has kept temperatures from breaching the mid 80s in the north, though warmer temps into central Kansas have allowed for a cumulus field to develop northwest of SLN, with other recent development near the slow-moving cold front farther northwest in north central Kansas. The front slowly settles into the northern counties tonight and should be the focus for more activity, with outflows of decent depth/coverage leading to more storms as the low-level jet forms.