Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Coverage is expected to increase this morning as the trough approaches, but will eventually decline during the afternoon hours as warm advection and large scale lift wane. A slow-moving cold front will move into the CWA around sunset, eventually stalling along or just north of the I-40 corridor overnight.
A cold front will move into northern AR tonight toward the end of the TAF period bringing SCT to NMRS SHRA and ISOL -TS to KHRO and KBPK. Today Through Sunday Through the period, weak upper troughing with embedded quasi-zonal flow will prevail over Arkansas as a very broad, low amplitude trough migrates eastward across the northern tier of the US. A surface cold front associated with the upper trough will enter northern AR early tonight and make little southward progression overnight. For Monday, highs will be a little lower over the northern higher terrain (lower to mid 60s) and temperatures over the far south will be a degree or two warmer (77 to 82) as weak southerly flow remains in place south of the dissipating cold front.
The boundary associated with these showers won/t make it very far into NW TN before retreating north as a warm front tomorrow.
1014 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020 High pressure exits. Cold front approaches tonight and lingers near the Ohio Valley. Starting off with a fairly dry atmosphere, so there will be a slight lag between forcing start from any of those disturbances aloft or the f-gen in the lower levels/surface. Cold frontal boundary near the Ohio River to start the period, with wave of low pressure moving along the boundary.
In fact, this pattern will continue through midweek when an upper level trough dips southward from British Columbia.
635 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020 High pressure exits. Cold front approaches tonight and lingers near the Ohio Valley. Starting off with a fairly dry atmosphere, so there will be a slight lag between forcing start from any of those disturbances aloft or the f-gen in the lower levels/surface. Cold frontal boundary near the Ohio River to start the period, with wave of low pressure moving along the boundary.
614 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020 (Today and tonight) Another cold front is expected to roll across the Big Country today. Warmer conditions will persist across areas south of there, with most areas sitting in the mid to upper 80s. Otherwise, look for breezy conditions with winds sustained at 15 to 20 MPH range behind the cold front.
But temperatures will still remain warmer than normal. The marine layer will likely be shallow in nature, but cooler and more moist conditions nonetheless. The marine layer and increasing onshore flow will lead to some cooler weather today, but mainly near the coast.
Mostly dry conditions prevail today with a mix of sun/clouds and slightly warmer temperatures than yesterday. In the upper levels, nearly zonal flow or weak troughing will be over the region today and tonight. At the surface, high pressure is over the East Coast and Southeast.
1045 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020 Currently - A robust pressure ridge extending over the Atlantic states and along the gulf coast, along with broad lower pressure across the Caribbean Sea is producing a fairly tight pressure gradient across our area. This is due to a robust ridge across the eastern and gulf states, along with broad lower pressure in the Caribbean Sea.
610 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020 A strong cold front extending from the Great Lakes region southwest to just north of UIN and to near MKC will continue moving southeastward today. Only light scattered showers are expected this morning across southeast MO in a region of low level temperature and moisture advection with another area of light rain across northeast MO and west central IL in a region of low- mid level frontogenetical forcing just behind the cold front. The showers should become heavier and more widespread across central and southeast MO and southwest IL this afternoon into tonight as the low level moisture increases along with increasing elevated instability. It will also be much cooler tonight and Monday with below normal temperatures.
Models continue to handle this feature poorly so have gone with warmer temps and more clouds than clearing for the overnight than the mostly clear skied guidance suggests with some mid 20s.
1217 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020 At 3 AM, a cold front extended from the Keokuk Iowa to Milwaukee. As the trough moves away from the area this afternoon.
109 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020 (Today and tonight) Another cold front is expected to roll across the Big Country today. Warmer conditions will persist across areas south of there, with most areas sitting in the mid to upper 80s. Otherwise, look for breezy conditions with winds sustained at 15 to 20 MPH range behind the cold front.
(This evening through Monday) As of the 2 PM hour a strong cold front was entering the northern Big Country. Overnight nows will range from the lower 40s in the Big Country to the mid 50s to lower 60 across the northwest Hill Country. The NAM continues to be much cooler than the other guidance, keeping temperatures in the 50s for most of the day across the northern two-thirds of the forecast area due to thick low level cloud cover and strong cold air advection.
1233 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020 Current radar imagery shows rain and snow south of our area, focused along a mid-level frontogenesis band north of the cold front that passed through yesterday. While it will remain breezy, wind gusts should remain limited to the lower 20s. Overnight, a weak high pressure system slides by our south, turning winds southerly by Monday morning. The HREF ensemble along with the NBM are suggesting that an inch of snow is possible along the James River Valley, and also along the Buffalo Ridge in SW MN.
A cold front will shift winds out of the N to NE with 20 kt gusts this afternoon. Timing of the cold front is such that an initial n wind across the nrn tier of CWFA is likely as early as 15Z and then to MAF 17Z-18Z. Cooler air does lag n of the front and high temps will still likely climb into the 90s in most areas, except n and e of a line from Hobbs-Garden City highs in the 80s, maybe 70s far ne. Highs Tue-Thur will show little change with the low-level ridge remaining near the TX/NM state line. Meanwhile a cold mid-level trof and assocd cold front will be moving s. There is good model agreement that the front will arrive in the PB/SE NM before 12Z Fri with high temps 10-15 degrees cooler Fri PM.
Should see these values raise a couple more degrees over the coming hours, with afternoon highs only topping out in the low to mid 40s. Aside from this, models soundings from across the region also show ample saturation in the dendritic growth zone, with temperatures in the lowest levels remaining in the 20s to low 30s, thus suggesting that light accumulations of snow will be likely. At this time have accumulations ranging anywhere from a tenth of an inch to just above half an inch, with the highest amounts occurring north of I-90.
139 PM MST Sun Oct 18 2020 Temperatures will remain close to 10 degrees above normal through much of the work week, however cooler temperatures are forecast by the weekend, with forecast highs on Sunday in the low to mid 80s! High pressure this week will ensure dry conditions persisting with only occasional high clouds or a thin veil of elevated smoke drifting through the region.
222 PM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020 The upper level flow has really begun to flatten out now that the trough axis has moved away from the area. This means that high pressure has regained control over the region, keeping the flow out of the ENE. Breezy conditions of 15 to 20 knots persist for nearshore waters, Tampa Bay, and Charlotte Harbor through the afternoon and into the evening, while winds in excess of 20 knots continue for offshore waters with high pressure in control and a stronger pressure gradient.
This afternoon, seasonably cold high pressure was centered over western North Dakota, with widespread cloud cover, highs in the 30s, and breezy northwesterly winds. There's been enough weak forcing combined with the low ceilings to produce some scattered flurries / light snow showers through the day, especially northwest and north central. Overnight lows will be in the lower teens to lower 20s. Expect highs in the low to mid 30s with mostly sunny skies north to mostly cloudy south.
/Updated at 1115 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020/ High pressure firmly in control with a nice fall weather day. Mostly clear skies should continue over the short term, with even warmer temperatures tomorrow as highs top out in the lower 80s.
1241 PM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020 A cold front approaches tonight, stalling in southeast Ohio.
The bulk of the rain will occur on the cooler side of the front. An area of low pressure along the front will lift northeast across northern Arkansas on Monday and will continue rain chances, mainly over our southeast 1/2 to 1/3 of the CWA, where another half inch to inch of rain will be possible. Temperatures will cool behind the front as it moves through this afternoon for those areas not already on the cooler side.
1020 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020 Cold front pushing into northeast Oklahoma this morning, with considerably cooler air and light showers noted behind the boundary.
427 PM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020 Warmer weather and more frequent rain chances are expected for the next several days. Swrly flow continues to advect warm, moist air into the region ahead of an encroaching longwave trough/cold front. With persistent warm advection ahead of the aforementioned cold front, seasonably warm temperature can be expected tonight. Rain in association with one region of such enhancement and an advancing cold front is expected to spread area-wide Mon-Mon night. The frontal zone will stall in the region on Tue as sly flow strengthens in response to a strong trough developing in the Upper MS Valley. That zone will waver until a stronger trough approaches and passes late in the week.
On Monday, a weak cold front will approach SE TX in the morning and will probably make it into the region before stalling out somewhere between College Station and Houston. Moisture levels drop on Monday night and cloud cover could be less than the past couple of nights leading to slightly cooler overnight low temperatures.
229 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020 A strong cold front is making slow southward progress across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, leaving a 30 to 35 degree temperature gradient from northwest to southeast across the forecast area early this afternoon. The front will continue to make slow but steady progress southward before getting hung up in the higher terrain of southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas later tonight.
Varying degrees of high cloudiness will continue through Monday as weak impulses ride along a strong jet aloft just north of our forecast area which stretches from the western states across the High Plains. Moisture is limited, but the higher elevations of the northern and central mountains can expect an isolated rain or snow shower as these weak short waves move east across our area. Low temperatures overnight will be moderated slightly by the high cloudiness. However, southwestern Colorado valleys are expected to be at our below freezing overnight, so have gone ahead and issued a Freeze Warning for these locations.
311 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020 High pressure dominates the southeastern CONUS this afternoon, and the ridge axis is draped across the southeast from the mid Atlantic Seaboard to the Central Gulf of Mexico. The afternoon dewpoints have climbed into the low to mid 60s in several locations, particularly in the southeast. This surge of moisture will also be concurrent with some of the lighter winds in proximity to the ridge axis. An inverted trough to the NW will put swrn AR and nwrn MS close to some showers, but models so far are holding back. General broad trough dominates the CONUS, with the Gulf states on the edge of the more progressive flow/active pattern.
A cold front moving through Indiana attm, will move into the far northwestern portion of the region around sunset. Low temperatures will range from the mid 40s in West Central Ohio to the the lower 50s southeast of I-71.
Generally air temps are in the lower 80s plus or minus a degree with S/SE winds 10-20 mph. 5-1kft by daybreak, some rain showers possible or an isolated thunderstorm along a weak trough extending over E TX. This trough will drift into to our I-30 corridor tomorrow early and shift winds to W/SW with most sites keeping S/SW elsewhere. Lows in the morning will be much warmer in the mid to upper 60s. The Bermuda ridge will expand back westward over our area as the little trough dissipates, bringing winds back to SE to end the short term.
Low-level baroclinic zone steadily lifts newd through the area tomorrow as low-to-midlevel trof approaches, but persistent cloud cover should limit insolation and warming across much of wrn SD.
This will allow precipitation over the lower elevations to transition back to rain by Monday afternoon.
As mentioned earlier this morning, system features with the approaching broad scale trough from the north has initiated decent isentropic lift nearly six to nine hours faster than depicted by short/medium range guidance 24 hours ago.
Bufkit forecast soundings show a nice warm nose while HREF ensemble precipitation type products show potential for mixing/freezing rain developing by Monday afternoon with this risk continuing into Monday night across southwest zones. Confidence on placement and icing amounts given marginal thermal profiles is low, and some places may go to straight rain for a time Monday if surface temperatures climb above freezing Monday and have a hard time falling back at night.
Temperatures tonight will generally be in the lower 60s. A cold front will push through the later tonight, and eventually stall around the I-40 corridor.
A cold front at 11am stretches from Northeast Lower Michigan southwest through Grand Rapids into Central Illinois. As the cold front plows to the southeast this afternoon, the 50s will be replaced by 40s in all areas. - Scattered Rain through This Afternoon - As a cold front continues to approach the area from the west, scattered light rain will persist. Snow will not be out of question, particularly for areas in Central Lower towards US-10 later in the evening as temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s. - Active Pattern Through the Rest of the Week - We'll see a chance at warmer conditions near mid to late week as a low pressure system lifts a warm front north.
High pressure remains in control over much of California and remains centered off the coast. The main areas of focus will be along exposed ridgetops of the southern Sierra Nevada, mainly near the crest, and through the passes and canyons of the Kern County mountains. We are forecasting local gusts mainly around 20 to 25 mph over the Sierra ridges and a little stronger, or 30 to 35 mph through the Kern County passes. The upper-level ridge will retrograde, or gradually move further offshore over the next few days.
On Monday, leftover showers and, possibly drizzle, are anticipated across eastern MO and southern IL for much of the day as abundant moisture remains and an upper-level trough passes overhead.
114 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020 A strong cold front extending from the Great Lakes region southwest to just north of UIN and to near MKC will continue moving southeastward today. Only light scattered showers are expected this morning across southeast MO in a region of low level temperature and moisture advection with another area of light rain across northeast MO and west central IL in a region of low- mid level frontogenetical forcing just behind the cold front. The showers should become heavier and more widespread across central and southeast MO and southwest IL this afternoon into tonight as the low level moisture increases along with increasing elevated instability. It will also be much cooler tonight and Monday with below normal temperatures.
Warmer temperatures are expected Monday with the return of a warmer mid- level flow. After a few days of models being inconsistent with the longer term forecast, things have come around quickly in the past 36 hours, with main models beginning to agree on double shot of larger-scale troughs sweeping across the northwestern US.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 75 57 80 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 75 55 78 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 52 75 55 78 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 74 51 76 53 / 0 0 0 0 0.
High pressure firmly in control with a nice fall weather day. Mostly clear skies should continue over the short term, with even warmer temperatures tomorrow as highs top out in the lower 80s.
147 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020 High pressure over the region will keep skies mostly clear tonight but southerly winds will help to keep temperatures a bit warmer tonight than the past couple nights. High pressure remains over the East Coast, stretching as far west as the Tennessee Valley. Being on the western side of the high pressure circulation, our weather will be dominated by fairly strong southerly flow bringing warm, more humid air in from the Gulf of Mexico.
Temperatures generally in the lower and middle 80s, with dew points ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s.
A cold front will be moving through eastern OK and northwest AR this afternoon, with sfc winds shifting to the north with gusts between 20-25 kts across the NE OK sites. /Issued 1020 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020/ Cold front pushing into northeast Oklahoma this morning, with considerably cooler air and light showers noted behind the boundary.
1123 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020 A cold front will continue to advance eastward through central Illinois today. 16z/11am surface analysis shows a cold front approaching I-57. Ahead of the front, S/SW winds and partial sunshine has boosted temperatures into the lower to middle 60s. Meanwhile behind the boundary, readings have fallen into the middle 50s along I-55 and into the lower 40s west of the Illinois River where conditions are overcast and showers have developed. Then a warm front will develop and become active for the last half of the week.
High pressure continues to move off the east coast helping to veer low level flow toward the south pumping a warmer airmass north. As a result, warmer overnight lows are expected with lows anywhere from the upper 40's to mid 50's. Southerly low level flow will again be responsible for warmer temperatures on Monday, with highs ranging from the upper 60's to mid 70's.
124 PM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020 A cold front will bring periods of rain today into Monday. Highs today will range from the middle 50s in southwest Lower Michigan to the lower 60s south of U. It then turns warmer through the workweek, however unsettled weather will persist with times of showers and thunderstorms.
408 PM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020 High pressure over the Atlantic will remain dominant feature through most of the week. A cold front will push into New England over the weekend. A longwave upper trough to the west will very slowly approach, and could get close enough to allow for a few brief sprinkles or showers Mon afternoon/night mainly well NW of NYC. The onshore flow will veer more southerly Mon night as the high to the east continues to retreat. The front will remain nearly stationary just NW of the forecast area owing to a strong 590 dm ridge over the Atlantic holding it at bay.
Surface cold front just about to the northwest edge of the CWA at mid afternoon.
The transition into higher snow levels may cause freezing drizzle or freezing rain in northwest and west-central Montana. The Flathead Valley, including Kalispell, into the Glacier Region, and the Seeley/Swan have the highest threat for freezing rain. Showers will linger through Monday with additional snow confined to the high terrain and along the Divide.
101 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020 A cold front will continue to advance eastward through central Illinois today. 16z/11am surface analysis shows a cold front approaching I-57. Ahead of the front, S/SW winds and partial sunshine has boosted temperatures into the lower to middle 60s. Meanwhile behind the boundary, readings have fallen into the middle 50s along I-55 and into the lower 40s west of the Illinois River where conditions are overcast and showers have developed. Then a warm front will develop and become active for the last half of the week.
239 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020 A cold front is currently tracking through the northern Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico. Much cooler air is currently filtering southward behind the front and low temperatures tonight will be much cooler than last night and below normal. One concern is that the low clouds may persist for much of the afternoon across the eastern Permian Basin.
High pressure ridge axis is draped across the southeastern CONUS from the mid Atlantic Seaboard to the Central Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures are on their way to highs ranging from the upper 70s to the lower 80s. This will lead to another dry day but temperatures will be a bit warmer with highs in the lower 80s across most of the region. Lows will range from the lower 60s west to the upper 50s east.
Near the New Mexico border and any other area where low cloud coverage is delayed, there could be a few locations approaching freezing by daybreak.
1146 AM MDT Sun Oct 18 2020 18Z TAF CYCLE A backdoor cold front is progressing southwest across most of NM. A backdoor front will slide down eastern New Mexico today bringing with it cooler temperatures and locally windy conditions over the Eastern Plains.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday night): Broad 500 mb high pressure will remain in place through the short term across the southern U. As southerly flow will continues warmer air will continue to filter into the area bringing temperatures above seasonal norms for Monday. 5 feet above normal astronomical levels this morning and with east to southeasterly fetch continuing we will likely see a repeat this evening with the high tide.
1001 PM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020 A high pressure stretching along the east coast of U. Temperatures dropped considerably late this afternoon and should drop to the lower 70s across the interior and the mid 70s along the coast.
Cold front has cleared KMLC recently and will continue to sag slowly southeast through the night. /Issued 229 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020/ A strong cold front is making slow southward progress across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, leaving a 30 to 35 degree temperature gradient from northwest to southeast across the forecast area early this afternoon. The front will continue to make slow but steady progress southward before getting hung up in the higher terrain of southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas later tonight.
551 PM MDT Sun Oct 18 2020 00Z TAF CYCLE A shallow back door cold front is forecast to stall over the Pecos River Valley of east central NM this evening.
Interaction between low pressure over the Caribbean Sea and strong high pressure over the eastern seaboard will continue to produce gusty northeast winds over the gulf coast waters over the next couple of days.
1011 PM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020 High pressure over the Atlantic will remain dominant feature through most of the week. A cold front will push into New England over the weekend. A longwave upper trough to the west will very slowly approach, and could get close enough to allow for a few brief sprinkles or showers Mon afternoon/night mainly well NW of NYC. The onshore flow will veer more southerly Mon night as the high to the east continues to retreat. The front will remain nearly stationary just NW of the forecast area owing to a strong 590 dm ridge over the Atlantic holding it at bay.
653 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020 (This evening through Monday) As of the 2 PM hour a strong cold front was entering the northern Big Country. Overnight nows will range from the lower 40s in the Big Country to the mid 50s to lower 60 across the northwest Hill Country. The NAM continues to be much cooler than the other guidance, keeping temperatures in the 50s for most of the day across the northern two-thirds of the forecast area due to thick low level cloud cover and strong cold air advection.