Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The higher amounts in the Park City to Livingston corridor and down into the foothills. We do expect at least some snowfall to continue over west facing slopes in the high country as some Pacific moisture continues to make into the mountains. Cyclonic flow with the primary trough axis shifting across our region will bring the snow further north again into our CWA.
1157 AM EST Tue Jan 31 2017 Noon surface analysis depicts high pressure (1026 millibars) centered over north central Florida. Low pressure (999 millibars) was moving quickly eastward across Lake Erie. This dry air mass and fill sunshine will allow highs to climb into the lower 70s for most locations today, which is 5-10 degrees above late January climo. Our local pressure gradient is tightening as low pressure glides eastward through the eastern Great Lakes and high pressure remains entrenched over the Florida peninsula.
/ISSUED 352 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2017/ Under mainly light south to southwest winds early this morning, skies are clear across Southeast Texas with 3 AM temperatures ranging from the upper 40s/lower 50s inland to the lower 60s along the coast.
A weak cold front is forecast by the models to sag into the northern/northeastern part of the forecast area but there are some differences on how strong the front will be and how far it will make it south. Very little cool air will arrive with the front so temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday's values across the Caprock and a few degrees below across the northern Rolling Plains. The only real sensible weather change concerns a dry cold front on Wed aided by distant troughing in the northern Great Plains and Midwest. Cool surface ridging in these patterns often proves a bit more resilient in duration which is how the GFS has trended lately.
For tonight, clouds will help to keep low temperatures mild with lows mainly in the low and middle 20s.
301 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2017 Gusty W/NW winds this afternoon will diminish to less than 10mph by evening as high pressure currently over the Plains builds eastward. Despite the presence of surface ridging, a weak upper-level disturbance will spread clouds and some very light precipitation into the area tonight. Low temperatures will drop into the lower to middle 30s. Morning upper air and moisture channel imagery shows flat ridge in the west US and flat trough approaching WV. By Sat, high pressure finally east of area, with southerly flow over IL.
1102 AM EST Tue Jan 31 2017 A very weak cold front has moved into the northeast part of the region this morning and will move a little farther south before becoming stationary tonight.
Have upped snow amounts over the higher hills a bit with forecast update and expanded likely pops to southwest half of CWA for daytime hours.
High pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and low pressure over the Texas Panhandle will maintain a breezy southerly flow through sunset. An intensifying interaction between high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and low pressure in the Central Plains will result in a breezy onshore flow today with VFR cloud decks. /issued 411 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): Zonal 500 mb flow initially over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will transition to filling 500 mb low pressure that will shift from the southern Baja Peninsula to directly over the BRO CWFA. Combined with the mid-level flow, and no cold front passages anticipated, dry weather will prevail for the short term portion of the forecast.
Temperatures are challenging today with questions on how much the low cloud deck will erode across the southwest. Some of the high resolution models, along with the GEM, are suggesting a narrow axis of flurries associated with weak frontogenesis moving into the far south after midnight. There will be some dry air in the lower levels to overcome, so nothing more than isolated flurries is warranted in the forecast grids.
There will be little change in the overall pattern for today and tonight with a blocking ridge/cutoff low across the eastern Pacific and the region being upstream of a flattening upper level ridge over the SW US. Weak CAA will follow in the wake of an H850 trough centered over the Great Lakes today, so have kept highs for today about 5-8 degrees cooler than yesterday, but still 10-15 degrees warmer than average.
1258 PM MST Tue Jan 31 2017 NW flow aloft remains in place over our CWA, with a trough digging south out of British Columbia into the Pacific Northwest. Today-Wednesday: Warm front lifts back to the north this morning and we will likely see another mild day across our SW with similar air mass as last few days. A slightly cooler air mass may remain in place to our north along with mid to high clouds possibly limiting heating. There should be a clearing period before the cold front moves into the region tonight, so I was comfortable keeping milder temperatures. Low level easterly flow will bring increasing BL moisture behind the cold front late tonight, pooling along frontal zone in our west. I kept freezing fog/freezing drizzle mention in place.
1027 AM MST Tue Jan 31 2017 NW flow aloft remains in place over our CWA, with a trough digging south out of British Columbia into the Pacific Northwest. Today-Wednesday: Warm front lifts back to the north this morning and we will likely see another mild day across our SW with similar air mass as last few days. A slightly cooler air mass may remain in place to our north along with mid to high clouds possibly limiting heating. There should be a clearing period before the cold front moves into the region tonight, so I was comfortable keeping milder temperatures. Low level easterly flow will bring increasing BL moisture behind the cold front late tonight, pooling along frontal zone in our west. I kept freezing fog/freezing drizzle mention in place.
Warm southwest winds ahead of the front have allowed temperatures to reach the lower to mid 60s across much of the area with Chattanooga at 67. Lows will be warmer overnight as clouds increase and winds will be south to southwest. Lower clouds will hold temperatures down across the northeast north of the front mid 40s to lower 50s and warmer south.
High pressure to the west will build in as the arctic front dives south across the upper Midwest tonight into Wednesday resulting in falling temperatures. However, if winds go calm late tonight, even if just for a few hours, with clear skies and high pressure building in temperatures could plummet to -15 in some areas. So, forecast should be considered a middle-ground with the possibility for slightly warmer or much colder temperatures overnight tonight. The lingering moisture will push south of the region by Tuesday night, as arctic high pressure moves into the Northland. High pressure will continue to push into the region from mid to late week, bringing somewhat below normal temperatures back into the picture for the first time in quite some time.
/issued 943 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2017/ A broad trough sits over the eastern CONUS this morning, with northwesterly flow aloft over the Mid-South. /issued 256 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2017/ Currently temperatures were running some ten to twenty degrees warmer than this time last night. After midnight tonight increased low level moisture ahead of an approaching cold front could produce some patchy fog.
A cold front will begin to approach the KABI (ABILENE) terminal late Wednesday morning. Overnight lows will be similar this morning with temperatures dropping into the upper 30s to lower 40s, aside from valley locations along the I-10 corridor that will be able to radiate and drop into the lower 30s.
Dry slot covers the southeastern third of central PA with sunbreaks from portions of the south central mountains to the lower susquehanna river valley. The low is progged to slowly lift northeast to the Fingerlakes region this evening while filling. Temperatures will rise above freezing over portions of the central mountains late this afternoon and eventually fall back below freezing in the pre dawn hours Wednesday. Mins will range from the lower 20s north to the mid 30s southeast. Across the central ridges and Lower Susq Valley, the mean (and not so cold) westerly llvl flow will keep skies mostly cloudy with little in the way of precipitation. Highs will range from the lower 30s north to the mid 40s southeast.
429 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2017 Low pressure will move southeast of Long Island this evening. Weak low pressure will remain over Northern New England Wednesday.
SHORT TERM:(Tonight through Wednesday Night): A weakening 500mb closed low pressure system will continue to fill and weaken as it moves eastward into Northern Mexico tonight and Wednesday. At the surface, high pressure located over South Florida and low pressure over the TX Panhandle is providing moderate southerly flow across Deep South Texas.
126 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2017 Low pressure over the Great Lakes will pass north of the area today. High pressure will build in for the rest of the week. Gusty winds will persist through the day with a tight gradient south of low pressure tracking across the lower Great Lakes. Main question is whether there will be enough precipitation falling out of the mid deck to moisten the low levels and allow for any measurable precipitation. If any precipitation does make it to the surface, it looks like another case of either rain or snow depending on depth of low level above freezing air. Stayed on the cooler side of guidance for Wednesday highs.
Our attention turns next to a weak cold front expected to arrive during the day Wednesday.
An upper level trough will drop southward from southern British Columbia and southern Alberta into the Pacific Northwest. The highest chances near 30 percent late this afternoon across northern Sheridan and northern Cherry county. Much cooler air will drop down into the Northern Plains today, with contrasting highs from the lower 30s northern Sheridan county to the lower 50s in the far southwestern zones. Lows very near the previous forecast from the mid teens northwest to the lower 30s southeast.
235 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2017 Warm conditions again tonight with southerly winds and temperatures in the lower 50s. On Wednesday warm conditions will prevail with day time high temperatures in the mid 70s to upper 60s, but late Wednesday clouds will increase across the region with an approaching cold front moving out of the Southern Rockies. The front will cause the high pressure that has provided fair weather to shift to our south/southeast, this will increase the dew point and relative humidity across the area.
351 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2017 More light snow is expected overnight as another low pressure system moves through the eastern Great Lakes.
247 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2017 Low pressure will move across New York state through tonight. A cold front will cross the central Mid-Atlantic area this evening.
Drier, but cooler conditions can be anticipated for late week. Where temperature falls below freezing this eve, mainly along the I 80 corridor, a couple inches of snow can be expected.
Temperatures near zero are expected for the lows tonight around Grand Forks, with areas reaching 5 below zero along the Canadian border. More sunshine on Wednesday, but high temperatures will be about 20 degrees cooler than today.
339 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2017 High pressure will continue to linger across South Florida in one form or another through the week.
451 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2017 A cold front has moved into the Mid-Atlantic.
253 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2017 High pressure stretches west from the western North Atlantic to the Florida peninsula. The upper level low currently pressing east near the Baja Peninsula will near the Texas coast by late Wednesday. As this upper level feature phases and shears out in the westerlies, the western Atlantic ridge axis will weaken somewhat along its western flank.
Have lowered max and min T for Vernal, Craig, Steamboat Springs and the lower elevations of the four corners including Durango.
High temperatures are expected to reach into the low-mid 70s, a few degrees below normal for this time of year.
Meanwhile, troughing over Texas as part of the now sheared cutoff low from earlier in the week and a high pressure over Northern Florida wedges Central AL in an area of southwesterly flow with some isentropic lift ahead of this slow moving front. 16 Slight chance of rain will return by Wednesday afternoon, as a slow moving cold front becomes stationary across the north.
Easterly winds across northern Oklahoma, variable over central Oklahoma, and southwest winds across southwest Oklahoma and northern Texas due to broad trough over region. West to northwest flow across much of the lower 48 will become zonal after a wave rotates around the southern periphery of a vortex centered over Hudson Bay.
Look for temperatures to climb into the low to middle 60s today -- a solid 15 degrees above normal.
Will monitor, and may have to put out a RFDCRP if winds stay up and humidity stay on the low side. 850mb temps increase further on Wednesday, which will bring even warmer conditions to the region.
The warmer air hasn't reached most of the WI counties yet where readings are still in the 20s. However, increasing west winds will bring milder air eastward today before another cold front pushes south this evening. A broad longwave trough takes on a negative tilt and leads to a strong cyclone across the center of the country. We'll have plenty of clouds through the rest of the day out ahead of a cold front that at 18z was dropping into northern MN.
A back door cold front will slowly work its way south through the Panhandles region from NE to SW during the day tomorrow.
322 AM MDT THU MAY 12 2016 A relatively flat upper ridge will develop behind the departing upper trough this morning.
After 11Z, HiRes guidance begins to develop convection to our west as the cold front over the Plains shifts east towards our region. A low pressure system and cold front will move through the region tomorrow.
426 AM MDT THU MAY 12 2016 corrected minor typos in short term discussion Warming trend continues for the next few days as high pressure builds over the Central Rockies. Do see an increase in lapse rates over the higher peaks Friday afternoon, which should drive a few high based showers late in the day. Current freeze warning for Colorado zone 21 remains on track with a handful of sites down around freezing as of 4 am. Still a few hours of cooling to go and with little to no cloud cover and light winds, expect a few more sites to drop below freezing.
422 AM MDT THU MAY 12 2016 Warming trend continues for the next few days as high pressure builds over the Central Rockies. Do see an increase in lapse rates over the higher peaks friday afternoon, which should drive a few high based showers late in the day. Current freeze warning for Colorado zone 21 remains on track with a handful of sites down around freezing as of 4 am. Still a few hours of cooling to go and will little to no cloud cover and light winds, expect a few more sites to drop below freezing.
The main period of convection later today will be around 23z-04z as a cold frontal boundary finally shifts east toward the Southern Appalachians.
On Thursday, high pressure will be eroding, but enough influence should remain to keep the day generally dry and very warm. Highs should be close to 90 degrees in most locations, with slightly cooler conditions closer to the Gulf due to the sea breeze. A cold front will then push into the area on Friday, and is expected to lead to the development of scattered thunderstorms.
343 AM PDT THU MAY 12 2016 Dry and a little warmer for today, the warmest day of the week for most locations, with morning low clouds persisting along the coast and western valleys, as well as some patchy fog.
Warm inland temperatures should peak Thursday as high pressure builds over the area. Cooler temperatures and increased onshore flow can be expected Friday as a trough of low pressure makes its way to Northern California.
347 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016 Cold front will make its way slowly across the region today from nw to se. As it does so, mid/upper level trof will swing east into the mid MS River Valley this afternoon. Unseasonably chilly high pressure will then take over for much of the weekend.
Upper low continues to move across southern BC. Airmass aloft is a little warmer tomorrow and expect high temps to be about 2-5 degrees warmer. Upper ridge over the region Thursday night into early Friday with mainly clear skies and warm conditions. Flow aloft turning southwest during the day with increasing instability as an upper low approaches the coast.
A reinforcing shot of cool air will move into our area as west-northwesterly flow increases behind the broad area of low pressure to our east tonight and Thursday. Slight downsloping off the Buffalo Ridge could cause slightly warmer conditions across parts of west central and SW Minnesota, perhaps warming to the mid-upper 60s in these areas.
413 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 A warm front will lift north this morning bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Better chances for stronger thunderstorms arrive mid afternoon through early evening across northeast Indiana, south-central Lower Michigan, and northwest Ohio as a cold front swings through.
340 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will persist until the passage of a Friday morning cold front.
Doppler radar is indicating storms rumbling through FTW/DAL metroplex this morning ahead of a weak cold front.
Upper trof approaches western Montana Thursday with an associated cold front moving across the area during the afternoon. A weak high pressure ridge will build over Central and Southwest Montana tonight while, to the west, a low pressure trof will move over the West Coast. A cold front will cross the Canadian border Thursday morning and and move into the central zones during the afternoon. The combination of the cold front and instability will cause scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The airmass will begin to warm Thursday but the cold front will bring cooler air into the region and temperatures will remain around 10 degrees below seasonal normals.
149 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 Temperatures will trend modestly warmer through the end of the week.
315 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016 A mid-level upper trough was moving through Kansas early this morning. The ridge passes this evening and southwest boundary layer flow develops. As this cold frontal boundary passes, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop.
425 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 High pressure will give the region another mostly sunny day along with mild temperatures. A cold front will pass through the area on Friday bringing showers and the beginning of a much cooler period.
329 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016 Much cooler today behind a cold front with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. At the surface a cold front/outflow boundary continues to push quickly south across the area with gusty northerly winds behind it. The rest of the area will see much cooler conditions with highs struggling to reach 80 degrees. This front is associated with an upper trough slowly moving across the Northern Plains into the Western Great Lakes. Upper ridging will then develop to our west through the end of the week putting us in a weak NW mid level flow.
222 AM MDT THU MAY 12 2016 17Z water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated trough in place across northern plains, with clear closed circulation over North Dakota. Of more importance to the Goodland CWA is the next short wave trough moving over the four corners around the base of large scale trough. With afternoon destabilization and period of large scale ascent ahead of this trough, expect showers and thunderstorms to develop over portions of Colorado and drift to the east/southeast across the area.
1209 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016 Clouds will increase overnight as a cold front approaches Arkansas from the northwest. a cold front will begin pushing into the state from the Plains.
205 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 High pressure through Thursday night will give way to a cold front on Friday.
407 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 High pressure builds offshore today as a cold front approaches from the Ohio Valley.
An upper disturbance will be spreading an area of showers and thunderstorms into parts of east and northeast texas while to the northwest an approaching cold front will be producing showers and thunderstorms into the four state region from the Northwest affecting Southeast Oklahoma, Northeast Texas, and Southwest Arkansas. Expect this complex of convection to continue eastward progress overnight and likely affect our western zones after midnight into early Thursday morning along an advancing cold front.
237 AM MST THU MAY 12 2016 High pressure will bring dry conditions and increasing temperatures into Friday.
533 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016 The cold front is knocking on our door this morning with Paris and Sulphur Springs Texas gusting out of the Northwest. The approaching cold front is very active on radars over Northwest and Western AR and for Northern Texas with some severe Thunderstorm warnings currently in effect. However, this elevated outflow has taken the briefly advertised Slight risk out of play with the SPC going with marginal risk for our area today ahead of the cold front in the soon to begin new Day 1 Thunderstorm outlook. The water vapor is showing a busy pattern to linger in the wake of this cold front.
As a result, we will keep rain chances generally in the 30 to 50% range with the highest chances reserved for areas mainly from Waycross, GA to Lake City and Live Oak, FL.
617 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 A ridge of high pressure will remain across the area into Friday. A trough of low pressure will approach late Friday afternoon and cross the area Friday evening. Another quiet day on tap across the Pine Tree State as the region remains entrenched under high pressure.
The cold front will drop SE through the CWA through this afternoon and early evening. but a new cold front will drop south into the state Fri night.
Lows are expected to drop only into the 50s(F) as warmer air is drawn northward into the region. Mostly clear skies are expected Thursday night into Friday as a ridge of high pressure builds above the Western United States.
A low pressure system sliding south out of Canada, will clip NW Montana and areas along the Continental Divide with valley rain showers and mountain snow showers this afternoon.
324 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016 A much cooler pattern setting up. As for tonight temps, clouds should prevent a big fall but force of cold air alone should send temps down to near freezing in far nrn fcst area. Temps below freezing even with clouds and wind would pose more of a problem for sensitive plants/crops and if temps do look like they may fall to around 30 then headlines may be necessary for late tonight. Main colder air surge to arrive Friday as a vort max rotates back south around the departing upper low and moves into the RRV by 12z Friday.
Most recent NASA/SPoRT RGB imagery is showing the FLS inland about 10-12 miles up the Rogue River with similar intrusions also occuring in the lower Chetco, Coquille and Umpqua valleys. Other than some high thin clouds, the rest of the area will be sunny today with another very warm afternoon as a ridge axis shifts overhead. Warm weather will continue inland on Friday, but another marine push will keep coastal areas cooler. Meanwhile, an upper level low pressure system, currently located near 37.
652 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 High pressure will give the region another mostly sunny day along with mild temperatures. A cold front will pass through the area on Friday bringing showers and the beginning of a much cooler period.