Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Models suggest winds picking up slightly out of the south in northwest zones tomorrow morning, so temps may level off in those areas near sunrise, but have slightly cooler temps from the previous forecast. Ridging influences sfc/aloft will prevail thru 24/24Z.
with the H850 thermal ridge over the valley at roughly 03Z this evening and breaking down by 15Z Friday.
642 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 A series of low pressure systems will track from the Gulf of Mexico northeastward across Florida and offshore the Carolinas through Friday night, providing variable cloudiness along with a slight chance of light rain, mainly in southern and eastern areas.
56 in 2011 A cold front will propagate across western and central North Dakota tonight. Would not be surprised to see a couple gusts in excess of 50kts immediately behind the cold front. With steep mid level lapse rates and a warmer overall thermal profile, a thunderstorm or two may be possible.
High pressure will continue to strengthen over Arizona through this holiday weekend.
305 PM MST Thu Nov 23 2017 Sprawling upper ridge across the srn/central Rockies today, leading to a very warm Thanksgiving day over srn Colorado. On Friday, gusty west winds early will gradually become more northerly during the afternoon as cold front drops south through the region.
208 PM PST Thu Nov 23 2017 High pressure aloft near the West Coast and weak offshore flow will continue to provide record-setting hot temperatures today for many areas.
705 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 Dry southwest flow will continue tonight and Friday ahead of low pressure moving in from central Canada. Mid and high clouds will then thicken from late morning through Friday afternoon as the low pressure system moves closer to the northern Great Lakes.
A ridge extended north northeast from this feature into southern portions of the NW Territories of Canada. Downstream of this feature, low pressure was located over southern portions of Hudson Bay with a trough of low pressure extending south into the Gulf of Mexico. Dew points today have reached the lower 40s which is uncommon given the westerly surface winds today. As the surface, Low pressure was located over Alberta with a warm front extending southeast into eastern North Dakota and Minnesota. Upper level ridging continues to dominate the weather across the central plains. An Alberta Clipper system will quickly track across southern Canada tonight, with a cold front diving south across the area in it's wake.
Surface data suggests a subtle wind shift working over eastern Wisconsin this afternoon was associated with an 850 trough sliding over the area. After a period of weak ridging in its wake, southwest winds will redevelop and the warming trend will intensify. These warmer temps may need to be expanded further north, but at this time, clouds and scattered showers will be dropping into the state during the day. The 850 mb trough is already departing eastern wisconsin toward late afternoon.
Temps remain pretty mild, so we still think we will not see much if any snow or mixed precip at the lower elevations. Dry high pressure will dominate Friday.
Slow moving cold front extends from the Blues to the John Day highlands this evening. A weak ridge with drier westerly flow on Friday will bring partly sunny skies. The airmass is much cooler aloft and highs will be in the 50s.
516 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017 Weak cold front/trof to washout by early this evening. Lows to be a bit warmer than this morning's lows, in the 30s. Not much moisture is available for this front, however, with a sharp upper trof associated with it and a sfc trof just ahead of the front, some sprinkles are possible ahead of the front as it passes thru the CWA. Temps rebound quickly for Sun as sfc winds become sly to swly and the thermal ridge builds into the region. Important differences actually show up by Sun which may result in Sun being slightly cooler and Mon/Tues warmer than currently forecast. Regardless, have trended slightly cooler for Tues with an approaching cdfnt.
Shallow cooler air advancing in from the north will allow for low-level stratus and possibly areas of fog to develop through sunrise along the I-4 corridor and as far south as Melbourne. As a result, low temperatures will be slightly cooler in the low to mid 60s across the area. The trough aloft extending well southward into the Gulf of Mexico will slowly translate eastward while gradually filling. At the surface, low pressure should become dominant in the Atlantic to our northeast, which will cause the slow moving frontal boundary to continue to sag southward. IFR conditions expected for interior terminals and KDAB/KTIX/KMLB with low ceilings and the possibility for fog development through the overnight hours due to shallow cool air behind a slow moving cold front.
751 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 High pressure will remain over the region through Friday.
Went ahead and added northern Carbon and Albany Counties to the High Wind Warning and started the Laramie Valley zone now. Winds have already begun to increase over our wind prone locations and with strengthening gradients at the surface and aloft, we have decided to begin the high wind warning early this afternoon. Cooler night on tap with less wind and in the wake of the cold frontal passage.
Snow levels still high with temperatures well above freezing up to 10kft. Cotton Ridge RAWS site in western Cassia county already reported 0.
Slidell is already down to 43 F and dewpoints are in the low to mid 30s across the Northshore and SW Mississippi, so the light freeze for early Friday morning appears on track.
Timing will depend on the movement of the main trough across the region, and its associated pre-frontal band of convection located over the Gulf coast and the west Florida coastline. /issued 326 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017/ The prefrontal trough convection that developed across the region this afternoon will slowly begin to diminsh this evening as the heating of the day begins to decrease. As the actual cold front moves into the region during the overnight hours and into Friday morning, convection will once again increase out ahead of the main frontal boundary. There are still some concerns that there could be a strong thunderstorm or two in the area as the instability will remain in place until the cold front passes on Friday.
917 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 High pressure will build over the area through Friday.
Overnight lows will range from the low 30s across the eastern half of the region to the upper 30s in the western half. Frost/Light Freeze will be possible as some areas may reach the freezing mark east of a line from El Dorado Arkansas to Alexandria Louisiana. Around the Northeast periphery of a large upper level ridge of high pressure over the Southeast sections of the country, high level moisture will be spreading mainly cirrus between 20-28 KFT into the ARKLATEX. /issued 345 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017/ High pressure centered near Temple Texas is at 1020mb with a broad area of sprawling 1018mb contour stretching from central Texas and overhead into Arkansas. The current air mass is going to drift Eastward very slowly over the next day or so with some warmer Southerly winds soon to return.
Southerly winds will gust to 25 mph, especially along and north of I-44, and temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today.
914 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 A weak upper level trough of low pressure will move across the region tonight bringing some clouds and maybe a few flurries in the mountains.
525 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 A weak upper level trough of low pressure will move across the region tonight bringing some clouds and maybe a few flurries in the mountains.
The main short wave trough will swing across the Upper Midwest during the afternoon with the 23. As the cold front moves in with the short wave trough, there should be a band of weak to moderate frontogenesis in the 1000-500 mb layer. With these signals, have trended the area of precipitation chances a bit farther north with the highest chances across Taylor County.
Gusty south winds and warmer conditions are in store with Friday afternoon high temperatures ranging from around 50 across south central Lower Michigan, to the middle 50s across west central Indiana. A cold front will track across the region Friday night bringing more clouds and a low chance for some light rain or sprinkles. Warmer air will continue to spread back into the region tonight and Friday. The lower atmospheric levels will remain virtually too dry to support any precipitation given weak support above. Favor a slightly warmer solution over what most of the models are showing with highs in the 50s.
High pressure will drift off to our east allowing southerly winds to increase and become rather gusty on Friday ahead of another fast moving weather system. Clouds will be on the increase later in the day and as a cold front moves across the area Friday night, we may see a few sprinkles or very light showers during the evening with a gradual cooling trend setting in for the weekend.
854 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017 High pressure prevails across the area with clear skies. Meanwhile temps across eastern sections near the TN River and across North Mississippi will fall below freezing. Strong radiative properties coupled with a dry airmass will cool temperatures back to subfreezing for the eastern counties.
The clouds in the northeast have thinned/dispersed, and temperatures were now mid-upr 40s FA-wide, with dew points ranging from the low-mid 20s.
Cooler and unsettled conditions this weekend will result in lowering snow levels as travelers are heading home.
The high today was achieved thanks to more sunshine than expected and strong downsloping west winds. It will move east tonight and allow a cold front to drop south into the CWA late tonight. Friday, NW winds will bring cooler air in, but no arctic cold.
Near the surface, a trough of low pressure is shifting eastward across western Kansas. Wisps of cirrus continue to rotate around an impressive 594+ dm upper high south of San Diego. Unseasonably warm temperatures will approach near record levels this afternoon in the low to mid 70s (the record at Dodge City is 74 and normal is lower 50s). Light SW winds at sunrise will trend northerly and modestly gusty by midday, as the next dry cold front arrives.
Tonight brings lows much warmer than normal as warm advection and a light breeze interfere with radiational cooling ahead of an approaching cold front. Surface cold front arrives by mid morning Friday, bringing cold air advection aloft and rapid pressure rises.
619 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017 Weak high pressure was moving eastward, and southerly flow had developed across the entire forecast area. Some parts of west central MN are now gusting around 15 mph as the western trough approaches and gradient increases. Once the short wave goes by tomorrow, upper ridging will ensue across our area.
750 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 High pressure will move off to the east on Friday.
422 PM MST Thu Nov 23 2017 Current surface map shows warm front pushing into the eastern Dakotas. For tonight, upper trof crosses southern Canada with cold front sliding through the northern plains.
626 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 High pressure will extend over the area through Friday night with low pressure moving across to the south and southeast.
Strong radiative properties coupled with a dry airmass will cool temperatures back to subfreezing for the eastern counties.
High pressure over the Commonwealth will move slightly east into the Appalachians tonight, introducing a subtle southerly wind which should allow low temperatures to be several degrees warmer Friday than for this morning. Friday night, cloud cover should increase, as a cold front approaches the region.
With sunny skies Friday and south winds of 10 to 15 mph, temperatures will rise into the lower 70s east to the lower 80s west.
Latest high resolution guidance is trending slightly warmer than previous forecast, leading to an update of middle to upper 60s. Frontal boundary and cooler airmass behind is showing signs of slowing as it enters north central Kansas during the mid to late afternoon.
/issued 357 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017/ Chilly start this morning gave way to a pleasant afternoon with mild temperatures in the lower 60s amid a light north wind and clear sky. Given this setup and the good performance of cooler guidance last night, leaned in that direction for low temperatures tonight as well. This will bring another round of light freezing temperatures to parts of Central Louisiana, with the nearly calm winds also allowing for greater frost potential generally along/north of I-10.
Patches of light rain will end across the Valdosta region and the Big Bend this evening as a cooler and drier airmass continue to filter in from the west. Lows will range from the middle 40s northwest to the lower 50s southeast.
935 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 A series of low pressure systems will track from the Gulf of Mexico northeastward across Florida and offshore the Carolinas through Friday night, providing variable cloudiness along with a slight chance of light rain, mainly in southern and eastern areas.
613 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 Quiet weather is expected through Friday, with high pressure along the east coast, as our main weather influence.
Upper trough over the area will gradually shift eastward today. Isolated snow showers are expected over the higher terrain, except scattered snow showers across the far north associated with the disturbance. An upper ridge will move in tonight through Sunday morning for dry conditions. Patchy valley fog could develop during that time due to mostly clear skies and light winds that accompany the ridge.
As of 2 AM, the northward extent of the low clouds is located across portions of west KY into the bootheel of Missouri. Due to the southerly fetch of air, temperatures are quite a bit warmer tonight, held up in the 30s in most locations. In western Kentucky, where the low clouds have pushed in, readings are in the 40s.
556 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 High pressure will prevail this weekend.
The south winds will continue through the day Sunday as a storm system and cold front approach the area. Light precipitation is forecast on the southern periphery of the storm which may chance over to a mix of rain and snow as the cold air spill into the region behind a cold front.
Upper air analysis last evening showed a trough along the Texas coast and a ridge extending from northwestern Mexico into Oklahoma. The upper ridge will move across Texas today. The low level flow will continue from the south and temperatures will warm significantly with highs around 70 over most of the area. Tonight an upper level trough will move across the Rockies and bring a Pacific cold front into West Texas.
518 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 Low pressure will track north of Maine today drawing a cold front across the region tonight.
438 AM MST Sat Jan 20 2018 Water vapor currently shows upper trof moving across the western CONUS, with strong 125kt jet extending from Utah through the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes. As upper trof moves towards the Rockies today, strong jet lifts through the area, with right entrance region across western South Dakota this evening. As upper low closes off tonight and shifts into the central plains Sunday, snow will shift southeast.
The upper trough axis continues to slowly move eastward and away from the region.
Flow around high pressure over the southeast CONUS will bring warm air advection, along with an increase in low level moisture today into Sunday. Temperatures will continue to trend warmer. The period will begin with ridging ahead of a closed low across the Central Plains.
Sounding profiles support a mention of patchy freezing drizzle mainly across southwest Nebraska. Reintroduced a period of patchy freezing drizzle in central Neb.
With high pressure at the surface centered east of the forecast area, a weakening upper level low will shift east across the Lower Mississippi River Valley over the next 24 hours, with ridging aloft building into the region on its heels overnight. This will result in warmer conditions across the CWA today and tonight, with continued partly to mostly cloudy skies. Lows tonight will fall into the lower 40s and middle 50s.
Shower coverage will start to taper off throughout the day Sunday with brief high pressure.
Expect afternoon mixing to result in high temperatures in the low to mid 60s region-wide.
517 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 High pressure will maintain dry and warmer weather through today. Intensifying warm advection under building upper high pressure in advance of a Cntrl Rockies-to-Plains low will drive Upper Ohio temperature well above the averages for the start of the new week.
The midlevel trough of interest is currently located over CA and is forecasted to continue progressing eastward over the Four Corner region today. If the higher dew points can manage to reach this area then fog could develop especially along the northern edge of the stratus. Guidance is trending warmer with the temperatures tonight so the chance for freezing drizzle is now confined to far north central KS. Again the remaining snow pack could contribute to sub-freezing temperatures at these locations by Sunday morning. Temperatures are forecasted to rise above freezing and the isentropic ascent should migrate to NE. Most of the models suggest the initiation of showers and storms along the prefrontal trough or synoptic dry line as it quickly races eastward.
/Today through Sunday/ Lee side surface cyclone over eastern Colorado will continue to organize today. Gulf moisture will continue to lift north as moisture lifts north on the west side of a large high pressure system situated over the southeast CONUS. The freezing drizzle is expected over portions of central and northern Iowa where temperatures remain below freezing and/or ground temperatures remain below freezing, resulting in some icing late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Temperatures by Sunday afternoon should be at or above freezing with little to no winter weather expected until late afternoon or evening.
439 AM MST Sat Jan 20 2018 Overnight water vapor loop showed the upper trough axis across central NV and CA, with southwest flow advecting Pacific moisture from the Desert Southwest into the central Rockies. Most of the numerical models are in agreement with the intensity and track of the upper low, with the ECMWF trending somewhat slower. The general track of the low is across the Four Corners later today and tonight, and into southeast CO Sunday morning. Lower elevations can expect 6 to 10 inches, with up to a foot along the Pine Ridge.
Several locations have already reached 50 degrees, although the northwest counties are a bit cooler due to the remaining snowpack. KCKV/KBNA/MQY could see some clearing of this lower deck in the next several hours, but high clouds are likely to remain.
604 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 A dry surface pressure ridge will dominate through Sunday.
Should be a little cooler with a light north wind, but still not bad with highs above normal in the 40s around the Tri- Cities to the lower 50s over north central Kansas. Expect low clouds to move in and thicken after midnight with fog and freezing drizzle likely forming in some of our eastern and southeastern counties prior to dawn.
340 AM MST Sat Jan 20 2018 A narrow but amplified trough swinging through the southwestern CONUS this morning is anticipated to become a cutoff low by the afternoon, with a weak upper level ridge moving into Montana today and bringing continued clearing skies to the region. Colder air will also move into the region, with temperatures struggling to make it above freezing this weekend, especially north of the Missouri River.
Meanwhile, short wave energy moving eastward this weekend will help form low pressure and a developing storm system over the Rockies.
Considering we're starting out fairly warm with temps in the lower 40s right now, have decided to bump a few degrees on to today's forecast with upper 40s to low 50s expected across much of the area. Precip chances to increase across the board by Sunday afternoon as a strong cold front begins sliding through the area.
800 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 Low pressure will track north of Maine today drawing a cold front across the region tonight.
Deep upper trough to the west will bring moisture back into the mid lvls and increase instability durg the day Sunday.
918 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 High pressure will pass through the southeast states this weekend.
631 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 High pressure slides off the Southeast coast through the weekend.
929 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 Overnight temperatures dropped about 2 degrees lower than forecast over portions of the Nature Coast resulting in a brief period of near-freezing temperatures. Since then, temperatures have warmed into the lower 40s.
/issued 339 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018/ Southwesterly mid level winds will increase ahead of an approaching deep trough causing temperatures to soar well above normal today. These mid level winds will mix to the surface Sunday as the trough moves across the area with some locations exceeding high wind criteria. Left the High Wind Watch as it is for now, though current models indicate that the strong winds may be confined to the higher elevations west of the Pecos River and the adjacent plains.
624 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 A narrow upper ridge axis extends northeast from Mexico toward the Bluegrass State early this morning. At the surface, weak low pressure was located near the CO/NE border, with high pressure lingering over the Southeast. It's primarily a low stratus scenario, but we'll likely see some fog with dewpoints surging above freezing over the lingering snow. Sunday night looks warm and mainly dry, with central KY/southern IN firmly in the warm sector of a strengthening low pressure system in the Plains.
In general, this event remains on track with the mid/upper level low still expected to track onto to the central High Plains Sunday afternoon with a tight low to mid level geopotential height gradient south of it through the Panhandle and West Texas. Thus, will also keep the High Wind Watch as inherited.
Satellite already showing some of the low clouds breaking up, so expect the low clouds to be quick to dissipate and push east by mid morning. Warmer again today with highs climbing into the 70s for most locations. as south winds ahead of the upper level low increase.
08z/2am temperatures are generally in the lower to middle 30s, with a few readings near 40 degrees across the far W/SW KILX CWA. 00z Jan 20 models are in good agreement concerning the track of the low from central Kansas 00z Mon.
Weak upper level ridging and confluent flow will keep things quiet across the forecast area today.
Across Alabama, this ridge continues to slowly weaken and crawl to the east which will allow for increased moisture to feed into the state today from the gulf around the back side of the ridge. For today, this will mean an increase in dew points, warmer high temperatures and some cloud cover. This favors warmer temperatures, and some locations across our South could touch 70F on Sunday afternoon.
859 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018 An early analysis of the 12Z NAM shows a southern trend in some of the higher precipitation through Sunday night (06Z was on the high end when compared to a majority of the solutions).
Temps this hour seems a tad warmer so expected WAA may lead to high temps today a degree warmer than whats in the forecast so have updated this as well. Flow around high pressure over the southeast CONUS will bring warm air advection, along with an increase in low level moisture today into Sunday. Temperatures will continue to trend warmer. The period will begin with ridging ahead of a closed low across the Central Plains.
1010 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 High pressure will drift across the southeastern United States through tonight, then offshore on Sunday.