Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1135 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022 Can only find the odd cloud across eastern Utah and western Colorado this afternoon with some CU buildup over the higher terrain heading towards the Continental Divide. Hardly any vertical growth/buildup noted on local webcams due to subsidence from the area of high pressure moving in. So far, they're running about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday and with plenty of heating left in the day, wouldn't be surprised to see a few more degrees added to that total. Tomorrow, more of the same as high pressure continues to influence the weather. An upper level trough will be approaching from the west and will eventually ride up and over the ridge and will cause an uptick in moisture but more on that below.
Today and tonight: High pressure will be centered overhead through this time period allowing for mostly clear skies and light winds. Aloft, heights will rise across the area as warmer/more moist air advects into the area. Otherwise, high temperatures are expected to warm into the low to possibly mid 80s.
356 AM EDT Sat Jul 9 2022 A chance of showers will linger across parts of the area into this afternoon as a low pressure system moves east through the Ohio Valley.
Temperatures may be slightly cooler than past few days as boundary layer moisture ticks upward, but it will still be hot by any other measure.
An upper level ridge of high pressure remains firmly entrenched across the area, although the ridge axis will be shifting further to the west over time, with a northwesterly flow aloft developing over the region. A cold front.
Saturday: The first in a series or warm fronts moves into the region as the ridge axis shifts east east and southerly return flow develops east of lee troughing to the west. Much warmer temperatures near 90F are forecast (though cloud cover bring isn't normal complications on exact magnitude).
At the surface, high pressure will shift off to the east of the FA with a weak southeast wind in its place across the FA. With the high firmly in place over the greater region, am not expecting any storms.
1121 PM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022 Low pressure will ride along a stationary front south of the state tonight. Clouds covering most of central PA late this evening as a wave of low pressure translates eastward along stationary front south of the Mason Dixon line. Upper trough swinging southeastward through the Ohio Valley tonight will enhance the shower activity over the southern half of central PA through late tonight and early Saturday, and despite the richest deep layer moisture to be found south of the Mason Dixon line, some local downpours should result INVOF and just north of the stalled front. The warmer places will be the middle of the CWA where the clouds move away just in time for the temps to get a boost into the L80s.
252 AM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022 A free Great Lakes weather vacation is on the way for our area early this morning! Northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph are gradually lowering dewpoints to the lower to mid 50s over the area, and our far northeast may see upper 40s by sunrise! This dry cool air is arriving with high pressure which is centered over the upper Great Lakes. ERVIN If you became as wary of the daily dewpoint in the lower to mid 70s as I was, today and tonight will be refreshing reprieve to air more normally experienced on Mackinac Island than the land covered in 8' tall July corn.
All models show high pressure strengthening aloft on Saturday, with rising 500 mb heights over SW KS. ECMWF places a 600 dm upper high near Alamosa, Colorado midday Saturday.
310 AM EDT Sat Jul 9 2022 High pressure over the North Country this weekend will lead to warm sunny days and cool clear nights.
224 AM EDT Sat Jul 9 2022 Discussion/Marine --Sunny and less humid today-- High pressure moving over the Great Lakes is producing a northeast wind flow which is advecting in air from Ontario that is cooler and drier than we've seen lately. The high will drift east Sunday and southwest winds will pull in warmer air and highs will climb back to near normal levels in the lower to mid 80s.
Today will be a transition day for us as the upper level ridge start to push south as a front starts to push into the southeast. This mean we will see some morning showers along the coast today which is typically when the ridge sits to our south. Ridge will finally settle to our south on Sunday which will increase our morning showers along the coast before we see storms forming early along the west coast and then push inland.
Cooler onshore flow will maintain daytime highs close to normal through Sunday.
High temperatures today will top out a few degrees warmer than yesterday, with readings near 80. Temperatures tonight will be a little warmer as well, aided by rising upper-level heights and low-level southerly return flow developing.
By this evening a weak cold front will move through. By Sunday, the front will finally make it's way through and cooler temperatures will arrive. Highs on Sunday will be in the low 90s. Unfortunately, this won't last long as the ridge builds again across the area. Light S winds will veer NW then N and increase to 6-12 kts with passage of a cold front.
High pressure will continue to move to the southeast Today, as a cold frontal boundary moves into southeastern US.
631 AM EDT Sat Jul 9 2022 A chance of showers will linger across parts of the area into this afternoon as a low pressure system moves east through the Ohio Valley.
708 AM EDT Sat Jul 9 2022 High pressure centered across the northern Great Lakes and Ontario builds steadily southward today while producing favorable aviation weather conditions. Clear sky continues tonight with calm wind developing as the high pressure center settles over Lower MI late tonight through Sunday. * None High pressure dropping out of northern Ontario settles over the Great Lakes today ushering in a much more pleasant airmass for this weekend. Ongoing modest CAA continues throughout remainder of the day as northeasterly flow draws thermal troughing south over the central Great Lakes resulting in 850mb temps falling into the low teens (C). Largely a persistence forecast for Sunday albeit a touch warmer (low 80s) as the center of high pressure drifts to our east setting up south/southeast flow under clearer skies.
Still a few degrees warmer than normal, but highs today should range in lower 90s, mid 80s to around 90 for locations just west of and across Cumberland Plateau Region. Ridging influences surface and aloft should provide for dry conditions during overnight hours tonight and into Sunday. Lows tonight will be near seasonal normal values with highs on Sunday slightly cooler than today, upper 80s to lower 90s, mid 80s Cumberland Plateau Region.
slightly "cooler" conditions are forecast with high temps in the mid 90s and heat index values of upper 90s to near 105 deg. more warmer and humid conditions are expected this afternoon.
With the upper ridge remaining over eastern Montana today and no waves in the flow aloft, look for a hot and humid day with little or no chance for precipitation. The ridge moves east in the late afternoon and short wave trough moving through western Montana will allow convection to develop. The wave will move through eastern MT with a cold front during the evening and overnight hours. The wave and cold front moves to the east Sunday morning diminishing the severe threat. An upper trough will move through the area on Sunday bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be cooler with atmosphere not as unstable so there will be little chance for severe thunderstorms.
(Today and tonight) As the weak cold front continues to move south across the Red River, coverage of showers continue to diminish through the nighttime hours. Behind this front temperatures will be slightly cooler across the region, with near seasonable average or slightly above average high temperatures expected. The upper level ridge will keep things stable and mostly clear throughout Saturday.
(Today through Sunday afternoon) A composite outflow boundary and cold front is making its way south through the region this morning. Temperatures continue to be hot across the region with high pressure still dominating and warming temperatures aloft. As high pressure continues to build, anticipate high temperatures climbing a degree or two over Saturday.
After these storms move through, upper level ridging will begin to take hold, bringing increasing temperatures and generally light winds.
HRRR and RAP mesoscale guidance not showing anything in the way of convection today with 598DM upper ridge axis overhead. Cooler 700mb temperatures Sunday afternoon. so highs Sunday should be significantly cooler than today. Begin to see increasing monsoonal moisture Sunday afternoon with upper high center displaced south into western Kansas.
These scattered SHRA and TSRA should develop across parts of the area as a weak cold front drops into the region. These scattered SHRA and TSRA should develop across parts of the area as a weak cold front drops into the region.
There was still a few weaker cells over the lower Wabash Valley, associated with a secondary bullseye of deep layer moisture convergence, that were currently not producing lightning. That said, trailing upper trough and boundary layer moisture, trapped beneath an inversion and seen nicely in soundings and rh time sections, suggests stratocu clouds will be slow to erode. The full sun will allow temperatures to bounce back to seasonable highs in the lower and middle 80s Sunday and cool temperatures in the 50s tonight.
Models show a 600 dam upper ridge at 500 mb height charts right over south central Colorado. By Sunday at 12Z, the center of the ridge is over southeastern Colorado and progged to be a tad weaker than today. Today's highs are 1-3 C warmer than yesterday's highs.
SW flow along with dry and warm weather will be over the region as a trof ejects east skirting north across the CWA and tightening gradients a little more. Weather will be fairer Sunday with lighter winds as high pressure and weak flow move into the region.
346 AM MDT Sat Jul 9 2022 09Z upper analysis has strong ridge across the Four Corners region, with ridge axis across the Northern Plains. Convective complex is currently topping the ridge across western North Dakota. At the surface, high pressure resides across the Upper Midwest, with weak low pressure across central Wyoming. Upper ridge axis slides across the forecast area today, bringing very warm temperatures to the region. A weak surface boundary will slide into the area late today into tonight, bringing only slightly cooler temperatures into the region. Sunday will be fairly hot again, but surface dew points will be a few degrees cooler.
447 AM MDT Sat Jul 9 2022 09Z upper analysis has strong ridge across the Four Corners region, with ridge axis across the Northern Plains. Convective complex is currently topping the ridge across western North Dakota. At the surface, high pressure resides across the Upper Midwest, with weak low pressure across central Wyoming. Upper ridge axis slides across the forecast area today, bringing very warm temperatures to the region. A weak surface boundary will slide into the area late today into tonight, bringing only slightly cooler temperatures into the region. Sunday will be fairly hot again, but surface dew points will be a few degrees cooler.
Boxell (Issued 353 AM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022) Today through Sunday: High pressure will settle in from the north today. The high will start shifting to our southeast on Sunday. Increasing southerly winds will usher warmer air and slightly higher dewpoints back into southern WI by the afternoon.
Winds along the reef are from the southeast to south due to the ridge axis of the subtropical high being shoved southward by a mid-latitude trough. As this ridge axis moves farther south during the day today, winds will gradually decrease in response. Due to the higher moisture present, ample CAPE, and minimal inhibition, have only nudged them down to 30%, which is near or slightly above most available MOS guidance. From synopsis, A high pressure cell centered over the central Atlantic Ocean and extending west to the Florida Peninsula will weaken today through Sunday.
Lots of sunshine and temperatures warming into the 70s to low 80s area-wide as high pressure remains centered just to our north. High temperatures today will top out a few degrees warmer than yesterday, with readings near 80. Temperatures tonight will be a little warmer as well, aided by rising upper-level heights and low-level southerly return flow developing.
746 AM EDT Sat Jul 9 2022 High pressure over the North Country this weekend will lead to warm sunny days and cool clear nights.
Building high pressure will result in dry conditions and highs in the lower 80s under slowly clearing skies.
The Atlantic ridge will slide southward today, allowing for light S/SW flow across ECFL. Hot and humid conditions continue today with highs in the low to mid 90s with heat indices ranging from 102-107. Increasing rain chances today as the Atlantic ridge shifts southward, allowing for scattered SHRA/TSRA to form this afternoon.
636 AM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022 Key Points: * Seasonal conditions today, slightly warmer tomorrow.
1028 AM EDT Sat Jul 9 2022 High pressure over the North Country this weekend will lead to warm sunny days and cool clear nights.
A free Great Lakes weather vacation is on the way for our area early this morning! Northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph are gradually lowering dewpoints to the lower to mid 50s over the area, and our far northeast may see upper 40s by sunrise! This dry cool air is arriving with high pressure which is centered over the upper Great Lakes. ERVIN If you became as wary of the daily dewpoint in the lower to mid 70s as I was, today and tonight will be refreshing reprieve to air more normally experienced on Mackinac Island than the land covered in 8' tall July corn.
As the ridge continues to move south, the pattern will slowly start to change with more of a west southwest flow taking over this afternoon.
High pressure moving off and return flow up the western Dakotas will result in windy conditions today once the low level jet of approximately 30kts at 850mb/25kts at 1/2km mixes out, maintained by a 10mb pressure gradient across the state. Mixing with the front will certainly allow for a quick jump in temperatures back well into the 90s before 'cooler' air stabilizes readings and lower dewpoints advect in.
609 AM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022 (Today and tonight) As the weak cold front continues to move south across the Red River, coverage of showers continue to diminish through the nighttime hours. Behind this front temperatures will be slightly cooler across the region, with near seasonable average or slightly above average high temperatures expected. The upper level ridge will keep things stable and mostly clear throughout Saturday.
404 AM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022 Key Points: * Seasonal conditions today, slightly warmer tomorrow.
Currently, the area sits in broad northwesterly flow aloft, with an upper ridge axis positioned just off to the west. Surface ridging remains positioned over northeast Nebraska. Increasing subsidence aloft (in advance of the approaching upper ridge axis) will help to dry the mid-levels and keep skies mostly clear. First, as mentioned previously, the upper ridge will begin to slide into the Plains by late this evening, leading to rising mid-level heights and subsidence. This is where confidence in the highest heat index values (100+) exists.
614 AM EDT Sat Jul 9 2022 Aviation --Sunny and less humid today-- High pressure moving over the Great Lakes is producing a northeast wind flow which is advecting in air from Ontario that is cooler and drier than we've seen lately. The high will drift east Sunday and southwest winds will pull in warmer air and highs will climb back to near normal levels in the lower to mid 80s.
Short term (through tomorrow night): Today, mid-level ridging will gradually recede westward as an upper-level longwave trough descends over the SE CONUS and a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) approaches the peninsula from Cuba. Temperatures this weekend remain in the lower 90s, with heat indices reaching triple digits across South FL.
Forecast in the short term will be dominated by the influence of an upper ridge currently centered to our northwest. Today, upper ridge remains to our northwest with the Panhandles under northerly flow aloft. While marginally supportive mid-level moisture will remain in the western Panhandles, warm temperatures aloft, particularly in the northern Panhandles, and tempered surface heating should keep thunderstorms from developing outside of perhaps the SW TX Panhandle, where the marginally supportive mid-level moisture overlaps with relatively less influence from the upper ridge. Sunday, ridge builds eastward, becoming centered over the Panhandles.
324 AM PDT Sat Jul 9 2022 High pressure will be strengthening over the Southwest U. into the weekend for progressively warmer days.
Technically, this frontal boundary is a cold front, but cool will be more representative of what it will actually feel like. The position of the cold front will create two very different types of conditions across Arkansas on Saturday. Saturday Morning: Across northern Arkansas, which will be behind the cold front, morning temperatures on Saturday will vary from the low to mid 70's. Locations across northern Arkansas, behind the cold front will see high temperatures on Saturday only in the upper 80's to low 90's. Behind the cold front, slightly cooler high temperatures in conjunction with a drier airmass will provide some much needed relief across the Natural State.
The "cooler" region of upper 90s over northern Oklahoma this afternoon will fall to max readings over 100 Sunday afternoon as the long late-Spring into mid-summer heat wave continues.
This along with some modification of the airmass will boost afternoon highs into the low 80s, with cooler readings along the Great Lakes).
228 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2022 High pressure ridging that has been dominate over the forecast area the past several days will shift east this evening into Sunday as an upper trough and cold front move across the area. We expect this cap to erode later this afternoon into this evening as the upper trough approaches and begins to shift the ridge axis east. The highest probabilities for severe thunderstorms will be along and north of a Livingston- Billings- Miles City-Baker line. For Sunday, the upper trough will move eastward over the Northern Rockies with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. However, the threat of severe weather is less on Sunday due to less instability from cooler surface temperatures and slightly lower dew points.
With high pressure overhead and a dry airmass, we should see temperatures fall rather quickly through the 60s, with overnight lows in the mid 50s. Winds turn back to the south tomorrow as high pressure pushes southeast. Boxell (Issued 140 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022) Sunday Night through Saturday: A weak trough will pass through the area Sunday night, bringing some additional shower and thunderstorm chances to the area.
The start to a rather soggy and unsettled pattern will begin tonight as an upper trough progressing across Canada will split the upper ridge that had been dominating our pattern. Given our position stuck between a rock and a hard place between both upper ridges, PWATS will be allowed to soar into the 2 to 2. With some drier air aloft left over from the upper ridge retreating westward, DCAPES will climb into the 1000 to 1300 J/KG especially along and north of highway 84. Given our position between the two upper ridges leading to almost no flow aloft, the combination of 2 + inch PWATS and slow storm motions will yield heavy rainers across the area.
Clouds will continue to thin from north to south tonight, as high pressure builds across the region. High pressure will give us a refreshingly cool Sunday morning and nice end to the weekend with low humidity.
5km visible satellite matinee had a few CU over the highest peaks of the Black Hills and near the Lemmon area as leftover stratus mixes out there. This afternoon/this evening, upper/thermal ridge peaks over CWA. Main effect will outflow enhanced cold front with gusty northwest winds behind it. Sunday, cold front slows as it becomes increasingly parallel to mid-level flow and exits the CWA in the afternoon.
Hennig (Today through Sunday afternoon) A composite outflow boundary and cold front is making its way south through the region this morning. Temperatures continue to be hot across the region with high pressure still dominating and warming temperatures aloft. As high pressure continues to build, anticipate high temperatures climbing a degree or two over Saturday.
322 PM EDT Sat Jul 9 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough on the west coast, a ridge on the Rockies and plains and a trough in New England. The ridge builds toward the upper Great Lakes tonight. Mid-level ridging extending from central Plains high pressure continues to move southeastward of Upper Michigan by Sunday morning. While northwesterly flow continues aloft, the low-levels will see backing winds to south-southeasterly throughout Sunday mid-day. Expect cooler temperatures near southeastern U. locations along Lake Michigan from slightly cooler onshore winds. The warm front passes over the U. Southwesterly winds increase Sunday evening as the low level wind speeds are maximized. The trailing cold front creates a secondary round of potentially stronger thunderstorms from west to east over the U.
1123 AM MDT Sat Jul 9 2022 09Z upper analysis has strong ridge across the Four Corners region, with ridge axis across the Northern Plains. Convective complex is currently topping the ridge across western North Dakota. At the surface, high pressure resides across the Upper Midwest, with weak low pressure across central Wyoming. Upper ridge axis slides across the forecast area today, bringing very warm temperatures to the region. A weak surface boundary will slide into the area late today into tonight, bringing only slightly cooler temperatures into the region. Sunday will be fairly hot again, but surface dew points will be a few degrees cooler.
A ridge of high pressure over the intermountain west will begin to move to the east, leading to zonal flow aloft over Nebraska. At the surface, high pressure over the Great Lakes and low pressure over South Dakota will also support a setup for southwesterly warm air advection. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s, above normal for mid-July. At the surface, the high will migrate south into Illinois while the low moves east into Minnesota, continuing to support warm air advection from Texas as well as downslope flow from the Rockies.
Ridging over the Four Corners region responsible for our warming temperatures will aid in monsoonal moisture into AZ and eventually across southern NV and southeastern CA.
324 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022 Current radar imagery shows showers forming along a cold front. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s.
While cloud height may rise and coverage diminish some through the day, current expectations are for this to persist into the evening, leading to slightly cooler highs than earlier forecast for the northeastern third or so of the area.
126 PM PDT Sat Jul 9 2022 High pressure will strengthen over the West, with warmer than average weather expected inland.
Most of the shower activity has remained in the SE Gulf, with a few showers passing across portions of the Lower Keys. A mid-latitude trough is forecast to push the expansive subtropical Atlantic ridge across South Florida and the Florida Keys and weaken it through the beginning of the week.
140 PM EDT Sat Jul 9 2022 A cold front pushes slowly south of the area this afternoon and evening.
(This evening through Sunday) A weak cold front, if you can call it that with temperatures of 100 to 106 along it, extended from San Angelo to Brownwood this afternoon, as it washes out.
Sunday has a much more stable profile with most of the area expected to be dry and a little cooler than today.
227 PM EDT Sat Jul 9 2022 A cold front pushes slowly south of the area this afternoon and evening.