Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
232 AM MST Tue Dec 27 2022 Current surface analysis this morning shows a warm front running north/south through our western SD plains region. At the upper levels, mild ridging sits over the MT/WY area. As the day goes on, ridge is expected to slide over the Dakotas. Upper ridging and WAA will make for a warm day today, with high temperatures in the 40s and 50s throughout the forecast area. By Wednesday morning we see a pattern shift, as upper troughing digs into the western CONUS, with a couple chances for precipitation.
(Today and tonight) Northeasterly flow will continue aloft today with a trough axis to the east and weak ridging to the west. The next system will be entering the western CONUS through the day with the weak ridge passing over the area before the winds aloft back to west southwesterly tonight. Highs will warm into the lower to mid 60s this afternoon, with a some passing high clouds overhead. In addition, low temperatures tonight will remain mild with the help of the breezy conditions and temperatures tonight will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s which is around 10 to 15 degrees warmer than normal in some areas.
Key Messages: - Warmer conditions finally arrive - Generally low precipitation chances ahead Detailed Discussion: As a deep trough shifts east, frigid conditions will (finally) exit the region beginning today.
542 AM CST Tue Dec 27 2022 (Today through Wednesday) A weak cold front across central and east Texas from near Waco to near Lufkin is noted in surface observations early this morning. Afternoon highs will range from the lower and mid 50s from Burnet to Austin to La Grange, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s elsewhere. At this time, any low clouds may be brief as moisture in the low-levels should be very shallow.
845 AM EST Tue Dec 27 2022 Dry, warm weather is expected to start tomorrow with building high pressure and southwest flow.
552 AM CST Tue Dec 27 2022 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Now that we are out of the deep freeze, temperatures around freezing this morning don't feel too bad. Winds have returned to the south after yesterdays week cold front. Thermal ridging over the area will give temperatures a boost to levels we haven't seen in a while. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s from the Permian Basin south to the Big Bend with 60s across the higher terrain and SE NM where the front will pass earlier in the day.
921 AM EST Tue Dec 27 2022 Temperatures this morning started off in the low 30s to low 40s for most locations. The cold airmass over the region continues to gradually modify resulting in warmer temperatures each day.
441 AM CST Tue Dec 27 2022 Currently, a developing trough is just off the Pacific NW coast while weak ridging is building over the Plains. At the surface, the area of high pressure that drifted south across the overnight continues to push southeast of the area. A tightening pressure gradient will will bring increased winds to the region today through late Wednesday while the PCNW trough slides into the Great Basin. Temperatures will trend warmer through Wednesday, with southerly flow continuing to influence the region.
552 AM EST Tue Dec 27 2022 High pressure over the region moves offshore through today, allowing for a warming trend through the week. Sfc hi pres is expected to remain INVOF the FA through today while a weak trough aloft crosses the region this morning then exits this afternoon. then a clearing trend is expected this afternoon as the trough aloft departs. Hi pres aloft builds across the ern CONUS through mid week while a trough digs INVOF the west coast.
535 AM CST Tue Dec 27 2022 (Today through Wednesday Night) A weak cold front will be passing over the area within the next few hours, but not causing much noise as it comes through. Dewpoints will rapidly start increasing heading into Wednesday morning, reaching the mid 40s by mid-morning and the low 50s by mid-day.
531 AM CST Tue Dec 27 2022 (Today and tonight) Northeasterly flow will continue aloft today with a trough axis to the east and weak ridging to the west. The next system will be entering the western CONUS through the day with the weak ridge passing over the area before the winds aloft back to west southwesterly tonight. Highs will warm into the lower to mid 60s this afternoon, with a some passing high clouds overhead. In addition, low temperatures tonight will remain mild with the help of the breezy conditions and temperatures tonight will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s which is around 10 to 15 degrees warmer than normal in some areas.
530 AM EST Tue Dec 27 2022 After a few morning flurries today, dry weather and a warming trend is expected through late week under high pressure.
524 AM CST Tue Dec 27 2022 (Today through Wednesday Night ) An upper ridge will build over the western half of the country today as an upper trough moves through the Midwest to the east coast. The upper ridge will move east tonight and to the east coast Wednesday. An upper trough over the Rockies Wednesday will move into the Plains Wednesday night. By Wednesday night the high will be over the east coast and southwest surface flow will bring warm and moist air into the state. Lows tonight will be a bit warmer with lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s and in the lower 40s to lower 50s Wednesday night.
Significant rainfall is possible with snow over the high mountain peaks.
(Today through Wednesday Night ) An upper ridge will build over the western half of the country today as an upper trough moves through the Midwest to the east coast. The upper ridge will move east tonight and to the east coast Wednesday. An upper trough over the Rockies Wednesday will move into the Plains Wednesday night. By Wednesday night the high will be over the east coast and southwest surface flow will bring warm and moist air into the state. Lows tonight will be a bit warmer with lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s and in the lower 40s to lower 50s Wednesday night.
402 AM CST Tue Dec 27 2022 Currently, a developing trough is just off the Pacific NW coast while weak ridging is building over the Plains. At the surface, the area of high pressure that drifted south across the overnight continues to push southeast of the area. A tightening pressure gradient will will bring increased winds to the region today through late Wednesday while the PCNW trough slides into the Great Basin. Temperatures will trend warmer through Wednesday, with southerly flow continuing to influence the region.
Warmer temperatures will result from this change in pattern as it will dissipate the fog. With that much moisture streaming into the region, the potential for heavy precipitation remains high and will warrant the high impacts statements in place for Central California. Upper air observations, along with snow-level radars, were showing the freezing level up close to 10,000 feet. While snow levels will remain high, the passage of the surface cold front will help lower snow levels and reducing the threat of flooding. High Resolution ensemble analysis show the disturbance and associated cold front moving pass the region this evening. While ridging over the West will provide the area with a brief rest, additional disturbances will enter the region before the end of the week.
We will finally make it above freezing today with highs in the lower 40s for most of the Tennessee Valley. Clouds clear out by the afternoon with temperatures finally rising above freezing area-wide. High pressure across the area tonight will result in light winds and a clear sky allowing temperatures to drop into the 20s for most locations.
Winds will stay up tonight and help keep overnight lows above freezing for the first time in nearly a week.
1155 AM CST Tue Dec 27 2022 Currently, a developing trough is just off the Pacific NW coast while weak ridging is building over the Plains. At the surface, the area of high pressure that drifted south across the overnight continues to push southeast of the area. A tightening pressure gradient will will bring increased winds to the region today through late Wednesday while the PCNW trough slides into the Great Basin. Temperatures will trend warmer through Wednesday, with southerly flow continuing to influence the region.
Dry, warm weather is expected to start tomorrow with building high pressure and southwest flow.
328 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2022 High pressure will cross the area overnight.
1125 AM CST Tue Dec 27 2022 (Today and tonight) Northeasterly flow will continue aloft today with a trough axis to the east and weak ridging to the west. The next system will be entering the western CONUS through the day with the weak ridge passing over the area before the winds aloft back to west southwesterly tonight. Highs will warm into the lower to mid 60s this afternoon, with a some passing high clouds overhead. In addition, low temperatures tonight will remain mild with the help of the breezy conditions and temperatures tonight will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s which is around 10 to 15 degrees warmer than normal in some areas.
1230 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2022 High pressure over the region moves offshore through today, allowing for a warming trend through the week. Sfc hi pres is expected to remain INVOF the FA through today while a weak trough aloft crosses the region this morning then exits this afternoon. then a clearing trend is expected this afternoon as the trough aloft departs. Hi pres aloft builds across the ern CONUS through mid week while a trough digs INVOF the west coast.
A warm front will help warmer and drier air push northward after dark tonight, which will further scatter out the low stratus from south to north.
Moisture begins to return to the Lower Mississippi River Valley and western-most portions of the forecast area tonight through Wednesday. Guidance is indicating a low level trough moving north from the northern Gulf of Mexico inland over Mississippi/southwestern Alabama. Temperatures continue to moderate upwards as an upper level trough digs south over the western Conus, building an upper level ridge over the East Coast. High temperatures today in the mid to upper 50s rise into the low to mid 60s Wednesday.
Went ahead and issued winter weather advisory for the Catalina, Rincon, Pinaleno and White mountains for Wednesday from 5 am to 6 pm for 6" to 10" with localized amounts up to a foot at the highest peaks. Significant rainfall is possible with snow over the high mountain peaks.
Areas west of the Pecos will be slightly cooler in the 60s as a Pacific front moves in from the west that afternoon and evening. Approach and passage of the front and associated short wave trough will lead to windy conditions across the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains today through Wednesday night.
The cold front is currently draped across middle Tennessee and northwest Alabama and will continue to make its way towards the forecast area today.
232 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2022 (This afternoon through Wednesday) The start of a relatively quiet short term forecast is on tap as the 500mb trough sweeps off to the east this afternoon/evening.
300 PM CST Tue Dec 27 2022 High pressure was off to the east today with low pressure beginning to emerge in the upper Plains.
1230 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2022 Partly cloudy to cloudy skies today with slightly warmer temperatures and increasing winds. A trend towards much warmer temperatures will continue through the upcoming week and perhaps some rain later this week. Surface temperatures remain below freezing into this morning so if fog is able to form within this setup, we'll need to watch for slick spots especially with the roadways likely still cold, allowing for freezing fog. With the high pressure to our west, models indicate cloud cover may be the most likely to break across western areas, but that areas especially south of US-24 may hang tough into the daytime.
234 PM CST Tue Dec 27 2022 Water vapor satellite and upper air analysis show subtle ridging over the central plains in lieu of an approaching trough over the PNW.
211 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2022 Dry, warm weather is expected to start tomorrow with building high pressure and southwest flow.
(This evening through Wednesday) In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure is centered near the Mid-Atlantic states. Tomorrow will be warmer with highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s in the Tennessee Valley due to warm air advection from southerly winds and sunny skies.
1123 AM CST Tue Dec 27 2022 (Rest of Today) Regional surface observations indicate that temperatures are finally beginning to rise above 32 F for a good portion of the CWFA this morning, and this trend is expected to continue, with all locations surpassing the freezing mark between 10-1030 AM CST.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) The low level flow will turn around to the southeast tonight beginning a warming and moistening trend for South Central Texas. Tonight all of our CWA will remain above freezing with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. The warmer air will be accompanied by higher dewpoints which could lead to some morning cloudiness and patchy fog over the eastern half of the area.
317 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2022 Cold and dry high pressure will continue with well below normal temperatures through tonight.
152 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2022 High pressure over the region moves offshore this week, allowing for a warming trend through the week. Quiet day today with high pressure overhead. Aloft, a trough pushes offshore. Temperatures have been warmer by a few degrees than guidance suggested. Conditions are favorable for efficient radiational cooling tonight, so decided to undercut guidance for the lows. Lows will be in the low 20s for most, mid-upper 20s right along the coast. With the UL trough offshore, a ridge will build in its place.
231 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2022 (This afternoon through Wednesday) The start of a relatively quiet short term forecast is on tap as the 500mb trough sweeps off to the east this afternoon/evening.
Most of the area has risen into the low to mid 30s, with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s still expected across the area. Temperatures across the area are below freezing ranging from the mid 20s to lower 30s. Temperatures across the entire area will climb above freezing by lunch time today. Temperatures will drop below freezing again overnight before a rapid warm up begins on Wednesday. Weak upper level ridging will move over the area on Wednesday with southerly low level winds.
159 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2022 High pressure currently located overhead will shift slightly offshore tomorrow. This area of high pressure will remain just offshore through the work week. An area of low pressure will track toward the area this weekend. Winds are light and variable with high pressure located directly overhead. The high will remain in place overnight, allowing most locations to decouple and go calm. Most locations should drop back into the low 20s, with some upper teens possible in some of the typically cooler valley locations.
Lows will range from around freezing across the north to upper 40s across the south.
Latest models also show high winds continuing into this evening across parts of northeastern WY, so have extended the High Wind Warning. Current surface analysis this morning shows a warm front running north/south through our western SD plains region. At the upper levels, mild ridging sits over the MT/WY area. As the day goes on, ridge is expected to slide over the Dakotas. Upper ridging and WAA will make for a warm day today, with high temperatures in the 40s and 50s throughout the forecast area. By Wednesday morning we see a pattern shift, as upper troughing digs into the western CONUS, with a couple chances for precipitation.
1123 AM CST Tue Dec 27 2022 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Now that we are out of the deep freeze, temperatures around freezing this morning don't feel too bad. Winds have returned to the south after yesterdays week cold front. Thermal ridging over the area will give temperatures a boost to levels we haven't seen in a while. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s from the Permian Basin south to the Big Bend with 60s across the higher terrain and SE NM where the front will pass earlier in the day.
218 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2022 Dry, warm weather is expected to start tomorrow with building high pressure and southwest flow.
(This afternoon through Wednesday) High pressure will develop and remain just to the east of Alabama through the short term. South and southwesterly flow will develop slowly through the night and Wednesday around this high pressure.
(This evening through Wednesday night) Upper level trough will push through the Great Basin into the Rockies on Wednesday. There may be a gust to 60 mph in a spot or two if the low level jet can mix down to the surface briefly or if virga can help bring down some stronger winds during the day. just in case the low level jet mixes down as it is peaking.
Temperatures around 20 this evening should slowly rise into the lower to middle 20s by Wednesday morning. Southerly winds will provide continued warm air advection through Wednesday as a low pressure system develops across the northern Plains. Mostly cloudy skies should rule for much of the day as highs reach the lower to middle 30s by Wednesday afternoon.
1210 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2022 Temperatures this morning started off in the low 30s to low 40s for most locations. The cold airmass over the region continues to gradually modify resulting in warmer temperatures each day.
1128 AM CST Tue Dec 27 2022 (Today and tonight) Today will be a transition day toward a warmer pattern for the Southern Plains as a longwave trough across the Midwest begins to deamplify and lift to the northeast. As the low-level flow increases from the tightening pressure gradient, the modified Canadian air mass will erode as a warmer air mass advects into the Southern Plains.
324 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2022 High pressure over the region moves offshore this week, allowing for a warming trend through the week. Quiet day today with high pressure overhead. Aloft, a trough pushes offshore. Temperatures have been warmer by a few degrees than guidance suggested. Conditions are favorable for efficient radiational cooling tonight, so decided to undercut guidance for the lows. Lows will be in the low 20s for most, mid-upper 20s right along the coast. With the UL trough offshore, a ridge will build in its place.
1137 AM CST Tue Dec 27 2022 (Today through Wednesday) A weak cold front across central and east Texas from near Waco to near Lufkin is noted in surface observations early this morning. Afternoon highs will range from the lower and mid 50s from Burnet to Austin to La Grange, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s elsewhere. At this time, any low clouds may be brief as moisture in the low-levels should be very shallow.
101 PM MST Tue Dec 27 2022 Upper ridging covers the northern plains, while a low pressure system comes ashore over the Pacific NW. This low is pushing clouds into the western Dakotas, and a few rain showers are evident on radar across northeastern WY. As the Pac NW trough slides across the Rockies Wednesday, temperatures will cool slightly, and chances for precip will increase, especially across south central SD. This weekend, a trough will dig into the west coast, and swing into the Rockies.
(Tonight) As southerly winds continue through the night, temperatures will be noticeably warmer than last night across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
Increasing southerly winds will help usher that warmer air into the area. Today high temperatures are expected to climb into the low to mid 20s. As high pressure exits the Great Lakes Region and Low pressure advance ins from the Plains, the pressure gradient is expected to contract and bring some gusty conditions to Wisconsin.
Otherwise, expect a clear and dry night as temperatures lightly dip below freezing into the mid to upper 20s.
619 PM CST Tue Dec 27 2022 (Tonight through Wednesday night) The low level flow will turn around to the southeast tonight beginning a warming and moistening trend for South Central Texas. Tonight all of our CWA will remain above freezing with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. The warmer air will be accompanied by higher dewpoints which could lead to some morning cloudiness and patchy fog over the eastern half of the area.
Afternoon (3 pm) temperatures have already reached the warmest readings we have seen in over week for most areas in the CWA, with KC metro in the upper 30s and north-central Missouri in the lower 30s.
942 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2022 Cold and dry high pressure will continue with well below normal temperatures through tonight.
835 PM CST Tue Dec 27 2022 Issued an SPS for the potential for patchy freezing fog across our western half for late tonight. Temperatures are below freezing for most areas. If freezing fog materializes, we may upgrade to an advisory.
Breezy south/southwesterly surface flow has re-established across the southern Plains as modest pressure falls/a tightening pressure gradient has commenced across the high western terrain. Strengthening zonal flow across the high western terrain will foster a warm downslope regime by midday Wednesday.
There are two slight subsidence inversions, the lowest around 950mb, and the second around 620mb. The sounding appears to be representative of the next 12 hours or so, as high pressure remains parked along the eastern seaboard and winds will remain just east of north. This will increase moisture in the lower 150 mb or so, but overall the atmosphere above will be very dry. The gradient across the area will begin to tighten as high pressure consolidates along the eastern seaboard and slightly strengthens. The ridge will slowly slide off the the east which will winds to veer to a more northeasterly orientation by tomorrow morning into afternoon.
943 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2022 Dry, warm weather is expected to start Wednesday with building high pressure and southwest flow.
(This afternoon through Wednesday) The start of a relatively quiet short term forecast is on tap as the 500mb trough sweeps off to the east this afternoon/evening.
The weakest of Pacific cold fronts will drift through wrn and ncntl Nebraska tonight with very modest cold air advection continuing through Wednesday night.
In response to the pattern change, winds are beginning to turn back out of the south and will carry warmer and more humid air northward tonight into tomorrow. We anticipate one more night of frosty temperatures across the forecast area before a roughly 35 degree swing into tomorrow afternoon with highs in the lower to mid 60s.
Significant rainfall is possible with snow over the high mountain peaks. Nice warm late December day before a change to a cooler and wet period over the last four days of 2022 and to begin 2023.
High pressure was off to the east today with low pressure beginning to emerge in the upper Plains.
Temperatures in the south remain warm enough to sustain rain, while temperatures in our northern zones are now dropping back to near or below freezing, which would result more in freezing rain. The cold front that arrives from the northwest tomorrow should easily change all precip over to snow and will be accompanied by some gusty winds up to 25 mph.
538 PM CST Tue Dec 27 2022 (Tonight) As southerly winds continue through the night, temperatures will be noticeably warmer than last night across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
415 PM MST Tue Dec 27 2022 Upper ridging covers the northern plains, while a low pressure system comes ashore over the Pacific NW. This low is pushing clouds into the western Dakotas, and a few rain showers are evident on radar across northeastern WY. As the Pac NW trough slides across the Rockies Wednesday, temperatures will cool slightly, and chances for precip will increase, especially across south central SD. This weekend, a trough will dig into the west coast, and swing into the Rockies.
Only one more night of freezing and sub-freezing temperatures for inland SE GA and NE FL. A warming trend is on track for the rest of the week ahead of the next cold front pushing through this weekend.