Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
410 AM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021 Bermuda high pressure will maintain seasonably hot and humid conditions into the weekend. A cold front will approach from the NW late in the weekend. Bermuda high will continue to support warm and muggy conditions The weakly sheared vorticity axis associated with the low-amplitude s/w trough traversing the mid-Atlantic states and which was largely responsible for the convection that moved through the forecast area over the past 12 hours is starting to shift east of the area. Lows generally in the lower 70s, with areas of stratus possible. Uniform highs in the lower 90s. Lows in the lower 70s, with areas of stratus possible.
303 AM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021 Convection was occurring from southwest Kansas into northern IL, roughly along and ahead of a surface cold front. Mild and humid air was south of the front across the forecast area with temperatures in the low to mid 70s and dew points from the mid to upper 60s. An upper level trough was located over the central high plains. The morning should remain mostly dry across the area, with the upper level trough shifting eastward into eastern KS by midday and the bulk of the convection remaining north of the CWA.
Dewpoints in the lower 70s will aid in nudging heat indices into the upper 90s. Depending if this layer of smoke stays over the region or shifts east, this may impact our high temperature for the day, keeping us a few degrees cooler than anticipated. This feature is expected to push a cold front into southeastern NE and central IA this afternoon through the overnight hours. A lull in activity is likely between late morning and early afternoon before showers and thunderstorms redevelop in advance of a cold front Thursday afternoon.
Wind flow on the western edge of a low level ridge stretching west over the Southeast strengthens a bit in response. Precipitable h20 values actually decrease Friday from Thursday, with guidance advertising a bit drier air over the eastern Gulf of Mexico (under the main portion of the upper ridge) moving inland over most of the Southeast. Rain coverage increases through the Near Term with the increasing mid-level instability, though, from scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday to scattered to numerous on Friday, with the higher PoPs being over western portions of the forecast area, closer to the upper level instability. Low temperatures in the low to mid 70s are expected both tonight and Thursday night.
For the next business week, the mid level ridge is expected to eventually shift from the Rockies over the Northern Plains. If the ridge does eventually sink southward from the Northern Plains more closer to our area, then of course we could see hotter temperatures than what are currently forecast. Some to watch and see how the ridge evolves with time. Southeasterly winds at 05z will shift to the east northeast at 10 to 15 knots during the predawn hours as a surface boundary/cold front crosses southwest Kansas. BUFR soundings do indicated that a period of low VFR ceilings, 3000 to 6000ft AGL, will be possible early this morning behind this cold front.
320 AM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021 The Bermuda High will ridge into the forecast area through the weekend providing a typical summertime pattern.
Currently, S/WV mid level ridge over the High PLains off to our west, with a departing mid level trough off to our east. At the sfc, high pressure drifting slowly east across the eastern Dakotas and Upper Mississippi Valley. S/WV dirty mid level ridge will build across the region into Friday, with the slow warming trend continuing.
Castro 319 AM CDT The unsettled pattern continues for Friday with the base of the upper trough swinging through with its associated low pressure center and cold front. Models of course differ in the exact track of the low, or really more of a wave along the frontal zone, which in turn influences the extent of the precipitation shield depicted by various solutions.
(This afternoon through Thursday night) The subtropical ridge continues to sit well to our west over the southwestern US. This will keep our region on the eastern periphery of this ridge, keeping our high temperatures mild and weather mostly dry. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the higher terrain of New Mexico down to the Davis Mountains Thursday afternoon.
High temperatures should easily reach the low 90s this afternoon as the wet soil has had two days of sunshine and wind to dry out sufficiently. Overnight, winds should diminish to around 5 MPH, and low temperatures will be in the low 70s yet again.
334 AM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021 At the surface, the sub-tropical ridge axis will hold just north of Florida today and Friday, setting up generally easterly low level flow across the forecast area and keeping the west coast sea breeze pinned close to the west coast. Isolated High pressure ridging from the Atlantic across the Florida Panhandle will hold through the week and into the weekend, with easterly and southeasterly winds, turning onshore near the coast with the afternoon sea breeze.
221 AM MDT Thu Jul 15 2021 Look for a warmer day today as an upper ridge builds into the northern Rockies. TWH Upper ridge begins building over the region on Friday.
138 AM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021 The Bermuda High will ridge into the forecast area through the weekend providing a typical summertime pattern.
Temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 70s with weak but primarily southerly winds. With the jet axis and associated primary progressive pattern well north of the area, our weather will continue to be dominated by deep layer ridging. Some scattered patchy fog is possible in the southeast tonight as lows fall into the lower 70s F under partly cloudy to mostly clear skies before rising into the lower 90s F Thursday with sky conditions ranging from partly cloudy in most locations to mostly cloudy near showers and storms. This will raise the precip chances again on Friday afternoon, with the highest chances of showers and thunderstorms remaining South of I-20. Our CWA is expected to continue being between two ridges as a high pressure system remains stagnant over the Rockies and off of the Eastern coast in the Atlantic.
giving our eastern CWA southeasterly upslope winds in the lower elevation. Upper level pattern shows a 500mb high over southern California with longwave ridge through Nevada. Upper ridge continues to build over the western and central part of Wyoming Friday. We keep the low level easterly winds across our eastern CWA.
5in, and one of the waves moves in to suppress the otherwise building ridge into the Northern Plains.
400 AM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021 High pressure over the southeastern U. Afternoon temperatures from near 90 to the lower 90s will combine with dew points from near 70 to the lower 70s to create heat index values up near 100 degrees. Tonight and Friday, a slow moving surface front and upper level trof will be pushing slowly southeast into the mid Mississippi River Valley.
335 AM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021 08Z water vapor imagery and profiler data shows a low amplitude trough over the central plains with one or two convectively induced vort maximum likely within the trough. With the low level jet likely feeding high theta-e air into the convective complex, think it may be able to hang together for a little while. Highs today are expected to be limited by the clouds and rain with readings generally in the lower 80s. The upper trough is progged to slowly push east and south this evening with not a whole lot of scouring of the moisture. Lows tonight are forecast to be in the mid and upper 60s with possible stratus lingering overnight holding temps a little warmer than they otherwise would be.
SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): High pressure remains parked off the southeastern US coast with low pressure across West Texas and the Southern Plains. A weak mid-level ridge strengthens slightly along the lower Texas coast, with some drier air arriving through Friday, scattering any rain chances even further. Temperatures will top off into the low 90s east and upper 90s to almost 100 west.
A 500-mb Atlantic ridge axis remains draped across the region, making for a hot/humid afternoon accompanied by scattered convection. The axis of precipitation then shifts west and northwest as the wave rounds the base of the aforementioned ridge. High temperatures are forecast to be in the low 90s, but the humidity is going to push heat indices towards 100 for most locations. Overnight lows are in the low 70s.
1218 AM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021 (This evening through Thursday) Quiet weather will continue across the area the next 24 hours, with the extension of the subtropical ridge over the region. Temperatures will be a little warmer on Thursday, with afternoon highs in the lower and middle 90s. Lows tonight will be mainly in the lower 70s.
Chances of storms return Friday night in our west as the axis of a theta-e ridge creeps into the CWA along with a perturbation swinging through within northwest flow.
Min RH values will be in the 25-35 percent range at the lower elevations, with higher values in the mountains.
901 AM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021 Dry weather is expected briefly today and tonight before rain chances return on Friday ahead of a cold front. High pressure today will foster southwesterly warm/moist return flow, providing hot, hazy, and humid conditions this afternoon.
725 AM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021 Aviation - Thunderstorm potential today - Chance of Southern Michigan heavy rain Friday night -- Thunderstorm potential today -- Elevated storms this morning in Central Michigan are forming off 925-850 mb moisture transport convergence and closer proximity to the upper level trough, and repeating batches of heavy downpours could cause minor flooding this morning, particularly in Mason and Lake counties where soil moisture is relatively high. The orientation of the cold front or mid-level focus for storm development relative to the 0-3 km shear vector is closer to parallel than it is perpendicular, so this would also limit the potential for a stronger QLCS to develop. A few strong thunderstorms are possible with wind gusts over 40 knots, with the highest chance across southeast Lower Michigan this afternoon.
A weak large scale upper trough will shift into the eastern CONUS the next several days as an upper anticyclone builds over the Intermountain West. Temperatures will begin the period pretty close to normal, warm to somewhat above normal for a few days, then probably cool off a little late in the period as the eastern CONUS longwave trough strengthens.
Trough of low pressure along the coast will deepen today and tonight. This will bring cooler air throughout the region today and tonight. The low weakens a little on Friday to bring slight warming over todays highs but still a little below normal temperatures are expected for this time of year.
Sitting under a dirty ridge that is anchored across the SE, S/SW flow will keep transporting moisture into the region. The previously mentioned ridge will weaken on Friday as an amplifying trough slides into the backside of it. The cold front will slowly sink southward this weekend and bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms.
916 AM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021 (Issued 916 AM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021) Drizzle and a few showers will hang on this morning, winding down in the afternoon as low pressure pulls away. Timing the trough axis and surface front, precipitation is expected to clear southern Wisconsin late this morning. Another low pressure system is then expected to develop along the trough axis and lift northeast through the Chicago area on Friday. High pressure will be centered to the north aiding in east to northeast flow over the area bringing with it drier air. There are numerous solutions with this low with the GFS being the most aggressive bringing precipitation into far southeast Wisconsin. Dew points will also slowly improve heading into Friday with values dropping into the low 60s to upper 50s.
/issued 348 AM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021/ SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): High pressure remains parked off the southeastern US coast with low pressure across West Texas and the Southern Plains. A weak mid-level ridge strengthens slightly along the lower Texas coast, with some drier air arriving through Friday, scattering any rain chances even further. Temperatures will top off into the low 90s east and upper 90s to almost 100 west.
608 AM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021 Convection was occurring from southwest Kansas into northern IL, roughly along and ahead of a surface cold front. Mild and humid air was south of the front across the forecast area with temperatures in the low to mid 70s and dew points from the mid to upper 60s. An upper level trough was located over the central high plains. The morning should remain mostly dry across the area, with the upper level trough shifting eastward into eastern KS by midday and the bulk of the convection remaining north of the CWA.
08Z water vapor imagery and profiler data shows a low amplitude trough over the central plains with one or two convectively induced vort maximum likely within the trough. With the low level jet likely feeding high theta-e air into the convective complex, think it may be able to hang together for a little while. Highs today are expected to be limited by the clouds and rain with readings generally in the lower 80s. The upper trough is progged to slowly push east and south this evening with not a whole lot of scouring of the moisture. Lows tonight are forecast to be in the mid and upper 60s with possible stratus lingering overnight holding temps a little warmer than they otherwise would be.
We are continuing to experience the impacts of a low level ridge over the southeast. This is contributing to dewpoints in the low 70s and allowing for another humid day with afternoon rain chances. /AJ/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: Early morning surface analysis had a >1020mb ridge nosing across our southern zones from the east. Together these features will work to limit coverage of convection today but satellite derived total PWAT product still had PWATs over our CWA around an inch and three quarters and our dew points were running in the lower 70s.
A lull in activity is likely between late morning and early afternoon before showers and thunderstorms redevelop in advance of a cold front Thursday afternoon.
CIMMS mean layer analyses indicate deep and well stacked ridging centered over Florida and the extreme western North Atlantic. All-in-all this is a fairly typical pattern, with undulations in the easterlies riding west along the southern flank of the subtropical ridge.
As we move into the weekend, confidence is high in strong high pressure expanding over the area out of the Desert SW and bringing hot weather back to the area.
/22/ Today and Tonight: Early morning surface analysis had a >1020mb ridge nosing across our southern zones from the east. Together these features will work to limit coverage of convection today but satellite derived total PWAT product still had PWATs over our CWA around an inch and three quarters and our dew points were running in the lower 70s.
High pressure over the southeastern U. Afternoon temperatures from near 90 to the lower 90s will combine with dew points from near 70 to the lower 70s to create heat index values up near 100 degrees. Tonight and Friday, a slow moving surface front and upper level trof will be pushing slowly southeast into the mid Mississippi River Valley.
Afternoon highs will be in the low 90s across the interior and upper 80s along the coast. However, isolated to scattered showers will be possible through the day, with the highest chances for rain being from the Cape southward this afternoon.
Our northernmost airports are expected to be affected by the approaching cold front first. Given this, as well as a fairly robust capping inversion and limited instability, any precipitation ahead of the approach of a surface cold front during the day on Saturday is likely to be confined to isolated streamer showers. As the boundary reaches the coast and moderate to strong northerly winds return in its wake, a surge of cooler and drier air will take hold over the region as we approach the end of the weekend. Highs on Saturday will reach the lower 70s across most of the area.
(This evening through Saturday) Upper trough currently over the California coast still expected to dig across the southwestern U. Ahead of the frontal passage, warm and windy south winds will keep temperatures warmer than average. The NBM was a bit cool biased with the afternoon MaxT, as well as the winds, so instead used a slighlty warmer and windier CONSMOS. By Saturday evening, expecting the gusts to have gone down as lighter north winds will start bringing in cooler air.
Upper Cumberland will stay on the cooler side, with highs in the low 40s for most. Patches of bkn ci at times will transverse mid state region NW to SE thru 30/12Z per building upper level ridging influences.
1149 AM CST Fri Jan 29 2021 Freezing drizzle so light it's undetectable on radar developed across north/west central MN overnight, with slippery roadways developing per the MN DOT 511 site. Given the absence of sufficient moisture in the dendritic layer, we are seeing freezing drizzle instead of flurries like eastern locations are seeing. Do not anticipate the areal extent to expand more, or the impact to increase, so we will stick with the SPS to message the threat for areas of very light freezing drizzle this morning. A greater threat for freezing precipitation arrives tonight as an inverted trough noses into the region and theta-e advection blossoms over the area. Have fairly high confidence that the precipitation type will be freezing drizzle tonight into mid-day Saturday, but lower confidence with respect to QPF and ice accumulations.
1113 AM EST Fri Jan 29 2021 The cool and dry air mass over the Keys this morning will start to moderate tonight, as surface winds turn more easterly and increase their fetch length across warmer waters.
Still expecting some boundary layer mixing of dewpoints this afternoon therefore RHs could fall into the lower 30s to upper 20s for some areas, however amidst light nwly/nly surface flow. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 46 29 50 41 60 / 0 0 20 100 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 42 26 49 37 56 / 0 0 20 100 60 Oak Ridge, TN 43 26 48 36 55 / 0 0 30 100 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 38 23 48 34 52 / 0 0 20 100 70.
The forecast concern thereafter is the onset of widespread IFR tonight ahead of a cold front by late Saturday morning.
However, with most of the energy associated with this trough remaining farther south and the progressive system, only expecting 2-4 inches of snow accumulation.
Snow showers will end early tonight in eastern Nevada as a trough of low pressure clears the state.
Areas of light snow, rain, and possibly freezing rain will spread across portions of Central and Southwest Montana tonight. Precipitation has generally been snow further west, but then transitions to rain or freezing rain as the mild southwesterly flow aloft lifts over the sub freezing stable airmass in place over the North-central plains. Mixed precipitation, including areas of light freezing rain are included in the forecast overnight, but will have to monitor for details on where the freezing rain, or the rain snow transition occurs. Westerly flow follows on Saturday, allowing for temperatures to climb back above freezing into the 40s for many areas, along with breezy conditions developing in the afternoon.
The widespread freezing fog has remained north the Hays vicinity though the early afternoon and temperatures elsewhere have been slow to respond given the increasing/extensive cloud cover over the area. However GFSLAmp indicated high probability for VLIFR type ceilings to rapidly develop around 09Z as the rain and possibly brief freezing rain lifts rapidly north into central Kansas before dawn. The period of rain will be brief as the low pressure moves out quickly and deep northwest flow takes over the rest of the afternoon.
Expect the lower clouds to be nearly out of the area by late afternoon, though with the mid to high level moisture streaming in, still expect a fairly cloudy afternoon, mainly owing to cirrus.
553 PM CST Fri Jan 29 2021 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: Ridge shifting eastward over the region and winds becoming more southerly overnight.
High pressure continues to dominate our weather pattern today with a pretty pleasant day so far if you ask me. Will begin to see a few more clouds move into the area overnight as this high pressure continues to drift eastward. A couple of CAMs want to bring a wave of light showers riding along the warm front across the area, while others want to keep us dry until tomorrow evening. Heavier showers along the cold front will begin to move in tomorrow evening through the overnight hours and we could see periods of heavier showers with this line.
High pressure ridging will give way to a zonal isobaric pattern just ahead of the incoming system. Winds will increase from the south tonight as the gradient tightens into Saturday with a deep trough making its way to the Pacific Coast. The next round of heavy precipitation is due largely in part to this deep digging trough which will utilize available subtropical moisture.
202 PM MST Fri Jan 29 2021 A warm front extends from NW to SE across the area from north of Belle Fourche to near Valentine, Neb. A cold front will cross the area on Saturday followed by gusty northwest winds and scattered snow showers.
The axis of this trough and best forcing are in southern California currently and are expected to move south of Colorado tonight and tomorrow. Overall, amounts will be between 3-6 inches across the Park Range, 2-4 inches across other mountain ridges, and below 2 inches in the mountains valleys. A surface cold front will move across our CWA early tomorrow morning and will bring stronger northwesterly winds behind it. As a lee cyclone develops across southeast Colorado, it will create a tighter pressure gradient throughout the morning. This gradient combined with the subsident flow of the departing trough will create gusty winds up to 50 mph across the eastern plains.
554 PM CST Fri Jan 29 2021 A mid/upper ridge across the central CONUS will bring mild late January conditions to snow-free areas of Kansas this afternoon while a vigorous mid/upper trough moves into the Desert Southwest. Some of the higher resolution guidance is suggesting that low ceilings and visibilities will be a little more robust along the southern fringe of the snowpack compared to last night. Contingency forecast hydrographs do not support any runoff problems at this time even with the wet and near freezing soil conditions. Large-scale forcing for subsidence will quickly overspread the area in the wake of the trough on Sat evening with dry weather prevailing.
/issued 351 PM CST Fri Jan 29 2021/ Sfc analysis shows high pres centered over the Ohio Valley, ridging southward toward the Lower MS Valley. Strong winds around the southeastern flank of the trough are spreading considerable Pac moisture acrs the Rockies, with this moisture expected to overspread the region Saturday as the system moves into the southern plains 24 The increase in low level moisture and clouds will help to moderate temperatures tonight into Saturday. Anticipate overnight temps about 10 to 15 degrees warmer tonight than last night, with lows ranging from the middle 40s acrs cntl LA to the lower 50s acrs SE TX. The ridge aloft will break down as the west coast trough quickly advances east acrs the Rockies.
This evening through Saturday night The trough has begun to move inland this afternoon, and will gradually move across the Four Corners region through the next 36 hours. As the trough passes during the next 6 hours, the instability will increase, but the moisture will decrease with the trough shifting the moisture feed farther east. The ridge trailing this trough will be building in quickly across WY Saturday evening, quickly clearing out skies.
/Issued 310 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021/ Tonight through Saturday should be quiet as an upper ridge moves across the southeast. A strong upper closed low will move rapidly into the Mid MS Valley Saturday night.