Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT CLOSER TO KANSAS. AND THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE MAIN MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL BE TRAPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THE WARM FRONT ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR OR IF AN ORGANIZED AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN GET GOING NORTHWEST OF THE CWA AND TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
1235 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
631 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015 A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WILL PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN RECENT NIGHTS. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
QUASI MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD PRECLUDE EASTWARD EXPANSION.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WITH SW FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES.
/ISSUED 317 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015/ AN EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE SQUARELY OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION FOR THE FA TODAY.
AN AREA OF STRONG STORMS OVER SE GA NEAR SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SOUTH THIS EVENING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE GA WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH TO NEAR THE GA-FL LINE.
Surface analysis from 00 UTC shows a weak cold front moving into Middle Georgia and South Central Alabama.
720 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015 THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITHIN THE LAST HOUR TAKING ADVANTAGE OF 5000-6000 J/KG OF CAPE. SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US. THOUGH DID KEEP CHANCES ON THE LOWER SIDE. AS CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE GOING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL ALLOW FOR QUIET WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
903 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN ON SATURDAY.
AND DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE ENE THROUGH THIS LAYER. FAIRLY IN LINE WITH THE TRENDS OF VARIOUS STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WHICH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. -GIH AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.
THE COMBINATION OF SUBTLE WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH ALOFT ALONG WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, SUPPORT A THREAT OF POTENTIALLY MAINTAINING A FEW OF THE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST IA/NW MO, BUT MORE LIKELY NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST MO INTO CENTRAL MO.
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 AVIATION AN APPROACHING WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE SEABREEZE IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INLAND AND THE HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES ARE ALLOWING FOR HEAT INDICES ACROSS FAR INLAND NUECES.
758 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
950 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
905 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
748 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WARM AND DRY WEATHER IN PLACE INTO SATURDAY.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 70 94 71 94 / 10 10 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 67 90 70 92 / 10 10 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 67 91 68 93 / 10 10 0 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 61 88 63 89 / 10 10 0 10.
742 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
I'M NOT SEEING THE SIGNALS IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS.
SW/NE ORIENTED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS DIGS ACROSS FLORIDA AS SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY DROPS DOWN INTO THE REGION.
738 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH A WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADING FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
A LARGE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS WELL INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. A DEEP TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND NORTH FLORIDA. WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXPANDING DOWN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SUNSHINE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN.
733 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 AVIATION MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COVERING MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT.
1051 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015 UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION TO ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA.
1015 AM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015 A BROAD TROF REMAINS OVER THE REGION AND THE AIR MASS WILL GET SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. WARANAUSKAS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A weak reflection of the trough extends eastward to near Apalachicola, with east to northeast surface winds north of the boundary. This portion of the trough is forecast to become less defined through the day, with southeasterly flow spreading well inland.
1257 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 A WARM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
DRY COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE WESTERLY WINDS TO 30 KTS THROUGH 10K FEET MSL. WINDY RIDGE AND CANYON CREEK FIRES WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE BAKER VALLEY AND INTO THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS OF IDAHO THIS EVENING. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR EAST. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP REGION IN DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WWD THRU 17/12Z. AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS WWD OUT OF MID STATE AFTER 17/00Z. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM KY EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
714 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND LOWER LAKES WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT STARTS TO DAY OVERHEAD WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST BY EVENING. THE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN US WILL FAVOR A MEAN UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL HANG TOUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
FORECAST AREA REMAINS RAIN FREE THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED WEST OVERNIGHT. 12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS WOULD PLACE THE TROUGH AXIS FROM SW KY SOUTH TO ALONG THE AR- MS LINE. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 89 72 83 70 / 30 30 60 60 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 86 70 85 68 / 30 20 50 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 87 69 85 69 / 30 20 50 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 86 65 86 67 / 30 20 50 50.
947 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 A WARM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
Temperatures are generally running warmer this morning. High pressure will continue to build westward over the next day with daytime highs warming up to 100 degrees or better in the central valley.
VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY AND KEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
BUT GIVEN THE WINDS AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL WI BY MONDAY MORNING. DEEP RIDGING WILL KEEP IT DRY AND ON THE HOT SIDE TODAY. PEAK NAM CAPE VALUES SHAPING UP TO BE AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH THE GFS MUCH LESS THOUGH THE GFS MAY BE A BIT TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS.
610 AM MST SUN AUG 16 2015 VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY AND KEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
419 AM PDT SUN AUG 16 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE VERY HOT WEATHER TODAY EXCEPT FOR COASTAL AREAS WHICH WILL BE KEPT COOLER BY A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WITH PATCHY EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE COAST.
949 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 18-19C AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S INLAND.
617 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U. TO THE GREAT LAKES AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FOR TODAY AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AND WAITING FOR THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BOOT IT EASTWARD TOWARD MID WEEK.
INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE TERMINALS. THIS IS LIKELY RELATED TO A MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR REGION. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE SE STATES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC HOLDS NEARLY STEADY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BASIN. WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGHING/A GENERAL WEAKNESS ALOFT LINGERING ACROSS THE SE REGION COUPLED WITH A PERSISTENT INFLOW OF GULF ENERGY/MOISTURE.
MID MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH A WEAK LOW/INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 "TROUGH" AXIS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER TROUGH PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE SE STATES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC HOLDS NEARLY STEADY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BASIN. WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGHING/A GENERAL WEAKNESS ALOFT LINGERING ACROSS THE SE REGION COUPLED WITH A PERSISTENT INFLOW OF GULF ENERGY/MOISTURE.
713 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015 A clear and mild morning is underway across the region at this hour, as a broad area of high pressure remains in control. Temperatures tonight will then be a bit warmer compared to this morning, as southeasterly winds begin to advect in a warmer and more moist airmass.
735 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ALONG THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WILL BRING A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVELS AS THE RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE. THE ONLY PLACE THAT COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WOULD BE THE ELEVATED HEATING SOURCES OF THE RIDGES IN WV/MD. MODELS SHOWING A SLOWER SURGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROF THAT APPROACHING LATE MONDAY. STILL THINK SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
1037 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW YET AGAIN OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. TEMPERATURES BY MID MORNING ARE ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 80S. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U. TO THE GREAT LAKES AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FOR TODAY AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AND WAITING FOR THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BOOT IT EASTWARD TOWARD MID WEEK.
THIS IS DUE TO AN AREA OF PVA JUST EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS WHICH RESIDES OVER WESTERN TN. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM KY EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THE KTBW 12Z SOUNDING DEPICTS SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS.
1051 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015 MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED OVER MOST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL SITES STILL REPORTING TEMPS IN THE 60S. WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS YET TODAY HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
1156 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 HYDRO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COVERING MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT.
1150 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING BACK OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT AND HEAD EAST BACK OVER THE CWA. THE EURO IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW TRACK THAN THE GFS.
908 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE ERIE MONDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVELS AS THE RIDGES HOLDS IN PLACE. THE ONLY PLACE THAT COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WOULD BE THE ELEVATED HEATING SOURCES OF THE RIDGES IN WV/MD.
THIS SUPPORTS THE WARMER MAX TEMPERATURES WE ARE FORECASTING AND THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.
1254 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE ERIE MONDAY NIGHT.
1017 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE HAS SPARKED NUMEROUS CONVECTION OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH THIS MORNING.
702 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE ERIE MONDAY NIGHT.
948 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT WILL RETAIN OVERALL CONTROL THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ATTACHING TO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 20S WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS.
WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS MAINLY BEING NORTH OF COTTONWOOD PASS.
THIS AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SUGGESTED AT THIS TIME OVER NORTH TEXAS WITH FEATURE DEEPENING WHILE ADVANCING ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA AND THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
RECENT TRENDS SUPPORT A FASTER ONSET OF PRECIPITATION BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL KS WHICH COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. EVEN RAIN AS AFTERNOON HIGHS MAY RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ANOTHER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. RECENT MODEL TRENDS DEVELOP THE MID/UPPER TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MID/UPPER TROUGH.
Continued to lean toward cooler guidance due to expected low cloud cover and some fresh snow on the ground.
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING OTHERWISE DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING.
WITH RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST AND APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS A RESULT AFTER 21/02Z. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS LATE TONIGHT. A DIGGING UPPER TROF TO THE WEST WILL SLOW THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA ON THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SPILLED EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 50S. A WALK OUTSIDE REVEALS MUCH OF THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE THIN AND TRANSLUCENT.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING WITH MUCH COLDER.
LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FREEZING ESPECIALLY IF THE WESTERN EDGE DOES NOT HOLD TOUGH AND BEGINS TO ERODE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG WILL END BY MID-MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TODAY INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND WAVE AND COLD FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO MAINLY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE FA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OK. FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT SO NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
500 AM CST WED JAN 20 2016 THE COLD FRONT IS DRAPED OVER EAST TEXAS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AT TEXARKANA.
Stratus slowly dissipating across the eastern zones early this morning, with areas of freezing fog developing under the mostly clear sky across the western zones. Kept freezing fog mentioned in the grids, for approximately the western 1/2 of the CWA, through 9 AM Wednesday.
There is little to no CAA behind this departing system, so daytime highs should be similar to or a few degrees warmer than yesterday, with widespread readings in the 20s. Despite a 1026 mb high pressure settling se from the upper MS river valley into IL and ohio river valley tonight, mostly cloudy to overcast low clouds will linger through Thu across much of IL with an extensive area of low clouds all the way west into central NE/KS along with a low level inversion trapping low clouds.
1137 PM CST TUE JAN 19 2016 SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. /ISSUED 959 PM CST TUE JAN 19 2016/ A LINE OF BROKEN CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HRS JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS ENTERING THE NWRN ZONES. /ISSUED 540 PM CST TUE JAN 19 2016/ CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
POTENTIAL THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER CNTRL AND EAST TO LEAD TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPS RISING LATE AS THE LOW CLOUDS INCREASE FM WEST TO EAST.
A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER EAST TEXAS TODAY. THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO WEST TEXAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THE UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY. BUT NEAR 80 OR INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE POPULATED AREAS OF THE LOWER AND MID VALLEY.
SATELLITE SHOWS A NICE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS AGREE WELL WITH H5 LOW PRESSURE FEATURE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LOCATED OVER THE PARK RANGE OF NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING BY 5PM WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A -30C CORE OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY THURSDAY MORNING AS CHILLY NORTHERLY FLOW BUILDS IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFYING OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
But, there's always a but, as the main PV anomaly moves well to our south, it looks likely that we'll lose our cloud ice, resulting in freezing drizzle spreading north through the pre-dawn hours and into the afternoon. This all supports the notion that freezing drizzle may replace the snow as it spreads north with the loss of cloud ice.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH APPROACHES.
406 AM MST WED JAN 20 2016 A CHANGE IN PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS LIKE ITS IN THE CARDS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON THU. BUT THE NAM DOES SHOW A WEAK BUT STILL MORE PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN IN EARNEST AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
RIDGING THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TAKING AN UPTICK GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND SHORT WAVE ON THE LEADING OF 850 MB WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD EAST. WITH WARMER AIR MOVING IN. TEMPS EVEN IN THE LOW CLOUD AREA IN CNTRL ND IN THE LOW 20S SO THINK IDEA OF AROUND 20 OR LOW 20S QUITE REASONABLE FOR HIGHS IN OUR AREA WEDNESDAY. THOUGH STILL WARMER THAN THE CURRENT AIRMASS.
Cooler storm systems early in the week will bring valley snow across the east slopes of the northern Cascades and across the northern mountains tonight through Wednesday night. The gusty southwest winds that were keeping temperatures warmer across the WA Palouse have diminished in the last hour and this was just enough to drop temperatures at Pullman enough for a change from rain to snow. /Kelch 06Z TAFS: Low pressure has crossed the Cascades and westerly winds have brought an end to the snow in the in the Wenatchee, Chelan, Leavenworth, Omak and Methow Valley areas. The gusty winds should clear the low clouds and fog over southeast Washington and there is a good chance of clearing overnight at Wenatchee and Moses Lake too.
1222 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST A CHANGEOVER TO SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING RAIN AS THE SNOW ENDS.
/ISSUED 300 PM CST TUE JAN 19 2016/ SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. A MORE POTENT WAVE IN VERY PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW WILL RACE FROM THE INTERIOR WEST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE SIDED WITH WARMER AND BREEZIER SOLUTIONS IN THIS PATTERN RATHER THAN BLENDING AND THUS PERHAPS UNDER FORECASTING WIND SPEEDS BY 10+ MPH AND TEMPERATURES AS WELL BY 5-8 DEGREES. RMCQUEEN A CLOSED LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DIG SOUTHWARD PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING.
IT'S GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO SATURATE ENOUGH TO ALLOW PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND. THESE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO NOSE INTO OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES DUE TO A 925MB LLJ PUSHING INTO THE REGION. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BACK BELOW FREEZING IN THE MEMPHIS AREA. THIS IS WHERE THE FREEZING RAIN WILL COME INTO PLAY. THIS WILL ENCOMPASS AN ONSET OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. YESTERDAY'S MODELS RUNS SHOWED THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MUCH FURTHER TO THE NORTH COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. BUT THEY HAVE BOTH REVERTED BACK TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING DIRECTLY OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THESE WET GROUNDS AND SLIGHT WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD INSULATE THE GROUND AND ALLOW THE FIRST PORTION OF THAT SNOW TO MELT AND NOT ACCUMULATE.
/issued 423 AM CST WED JAN 20 2016/ Will have a pair of upper troughs move across the area today and Thursday.
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
WITH MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH TO PINCH OFF AND DEEPEN AS IT HEADS TOWARD EAST TEXAS.
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN MOST PREVALENT ALONG/EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. IS POSSIBLE AS THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF MOVES FROM CENTRAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE STRONGER TROF FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. DEEPENING THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONE ACROSS KANSAS DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MORE PERSISTENT SATURATED LIFT AND THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.
603 AM CST WED JAN 20 2016 We will get a brief respite from the wintry weather today as short wave ridging overspreads the area. We generally went on the cooler side of guidance. This should result in most areas rising above the freezing mark. If precipitation were to occur, we would be looking at light snow or sleet with perhaps some freezing drizzle potential as we get closer to sunrise on Thursday (loss of cloud ice).
TROUGH AXIS HAS PASSED TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AND LINGERING SHOWERS ARE STILL WORKING THROUGH SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND THE BAKER COUNTY MOUNTAINS AS OF 3 AM MST.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE THE PCPN ENDS.