Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Initially, surface observations are showing dew point depressions of 10 to 15 degrees, but as we continue seeing precipitation formation aloft, the low levels should cool down to saturation, and some light flurries should develop after midnight. Have added some low pops for the far northeast plains and over the higher mountain passes for Monday. Temperatures will be cooler on Monday with readings back into the 40s across the plains.
1025 PM MST Sun Nov 3 2019 Current surface map has an area of low pressure over northeastern North Dakota, with a cold front extending westward into northern Montana. Aloft, there is a ridge over the eastern Pacific with a trough over the Ohio River Valley associated with a Hudson Bay low. For tonight, cold front drops through the forecast area, as the wave passes over northeastern Wyoming, the Black Hills and southwestern South Dakota. Northwest flow aloft continues through the week as the low level baroclinic zone impacts the forecast area.
However, a cold front will move through Monday morning.
With the earlier cold front moving into South Dakota, a second cold front (currently analyzed in central Saskatchewan) will move through North Dakota early this morning. Radar reflectivities at 00Z showed an area of rain moving through the James River valley counties, aided by a cold front and baroclinic zone currently located across southern North Dakota. Though with the loss of frontogenetical forcing with the exit of the cold front, coverage and accumulations will be light. A surface cold front is currently sweeping from north to south across the state in the wake of an earlier northeastward propagating warm front.
1216 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2019 Dry weather is expected tonight and much of Monday, under the influence of a weak area of high pressure.
1002 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2019 500 mb heights slipped a whole 1 Dm over the past 24 hours at Key West as the mean-layer ridge axis has slipped southward to over Cuba. Confluence between easterlies across the eastern Straits and northeast flow around the continental high pressure has allowed for a moisture convergence axis from metropolitan south Florida southwestward through the waters north of western Cuba. A syncronized set of outflow boundaries formed from late afternoon Florida Bay convection passed through the Lower Keys and adjacent waters, freshening northeast winds and bringing light rainfall. An earlier update was set to bump pops over the Lower Keys prior to the passage of the convective boundaries, and while things have settled 3.
111 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2019 Dry weather is expected tonight and much of Monday, under the influence of a weak area of high pressure.
930 PM PST Sun Nov 3 2019 Weak low pressure aloft and weak onshore flow will help to build the marine layer early this week, bringing some relief from the very dry conditions. The low will move slowly east by midweek as high pressure builds over the Southwest. Previous Discussion (issued at 137 PM PST): Ensemble solutions are in good agreement with the overall pattern through the short-term and keep the cut-off upper low just offshore from southern CA through the period.
245 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2019 High pressure will move farther off the coast through tonight.
The Evening Update: The 5H cluster analysis reveals the stagnant dry/ridge pattern along the west coast will persist for at least the next 7 days. This is the result of a strong upstream Omega-Rex Block pattern west of 150W, and the deep trof (neg. This generally weakens the W Coast ridge slightly, but still keeps a dry wx pattern over the region this week. The 8-10 day 5H cluster continues rather strong ridging along the W Coast or over the Wrn States, and continues the above normal max temps/chilly overnites, and dry wx pattern. JHM High pressure over the west coast will continue dry weather with warm above normal days and cool nights.
A surface cold front was analyzed just across the International Border in southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba as of 730Z, with northwest flow continuing aloft. Some light snow is ongoing across the area both from the incoming cold front and in the wake of a second cold front that passed through earlier this evening.
1109 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2019 Plenty of sunshine and breezy conditions in between the departing high pressure and the next system to the northwest.
Otherwise, gradual wind shift to northerly as slow moving cold front pushes over region. A weak cold front will progress slowly over terminals tonight and tomorrow, with gradual wind shifts from southeast to north-northeast.
324 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2019 Latest regional surface analysis shows high pressure centered along the mid atlantic and wedged on the lee side of the Appalachians and into the local area. A few temperatures across the northern tier have already fallen to at or just below freezing while mid to upper 30s are the rule across the remainder of North GA and even into Central portions. By this evening and into the overnight period, continued isentropic lift along with the development of an inverted trough off the southeast coast will be just enough for introduction of isolated pops. Much warmer temps for tonight expected with 40s for the north, and only making it to the 50s for portions of Central GA.
1154 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2019 Dry weather is expected tonight and much of Monday, under the influence of a weak area of high pressure.
1027 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2019 Dry weather is expected tonight and much of Monday, under the influence of a weak area of high pressure.
The afternoon weather balloon from Boise shows the nose of warmer air aloft is lowering towards the surface.
Otherwise cooler today on the back side of a surge of cooler air dropping over the northern and central plains.
Highs today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday.
Pleasant weather conditions will persist through the week as high pressure dominates. This pattern is defined by a ridge of high pressure off of the Pacific Northwest Coast and an area of low pressure off of the southern California Coast. By late week, the Rex Block will begin to break down as the aforementioned upper level low shifts eastward into the Desert Southwest and dissipates. This will allow for the ridge of high pressure to build over the West Coast late in the week.
Lows will range from near 20 over the northeastern half of our CWA where skies will remain cloud free the longest, to mid 20s through the MO River Valley where clouds will abound and winds will transition to southerly late tonight as the high pressure moves eastward. The better chances of accumulating snow will be over southwestern MN where a half to just over an inch could occur by Tuesday night, with the higher amounts from Marshall to Windom.
Right now, most of the southern CONUS is in zonal flow with blocking low off the coast of southern California so not too much is changing until that breaks down. High pressure will slowly push eastward.
/issued 427 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2019/ Surface map showing broad area of high pressure over the SE CONUS which is expected to continue to slowly push eastward. With the high moving eastward, return flow will gradually develop through the day leading to a fairly pleasant day with afternoon highs in the mid to low 70s. Some hi-res guidance is trying to hint at the development of some widely isolated showers as some weak Pacific energy streams into the base of a broad trough over the NE CONUS and a weak convergent sfc boundary pushes into E TX. The aforementioned broad trough is expected to remain over the eastern CONUS through the week as a cut-off low currently centered over the SW California coast is slowly absorbed by the broader flow.
326 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2019 Partly to mostly cloudy skies will prevail across central Illinois today with afternoon high temperatures topping out in the lower to middle 50s. As a cold front drops southward through the region, scattered showers will develop along and south of a Danville to Taylorville line by this evening. A weak cold front currently extending from Minnesota to Kansas will push eastward into central Illinois today. Thanks to a ridge of high pressure across the Deep South, northward moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico will essentially be blocked. Have therefore gone with a partly to mostly cloudy but dry day with afternoon highs in the lower to middle 50s. Persistent upper troughing will dominate the Midwest/Great Lakes through the extended.
427 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2019 Surface map showing broad area of high pressure over the SE CONUS which is expected to continue to slowly push eastward. With the high moving eastward, return flow will gradually develop through the day leading to a fairly pleasant day with afternoon highs in the mid to low 70s. Some hi-res guidance is trying to hint at the development of some widely isolated showers as some weak Pacific energy streams into the base of a broad trough over the NE CONUS and a weak convergent sfc boundary pushes into E TX. The aforementioned broad trough is expected to remain over the eastern CONUS through the week as a cut-off low currently centered over the SW California coast is slowly absorbed by the broader flow.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler today, although still right around the climatological normal for early November. These southerly winds will pick up in speed by afternoon as a leeside trough pressure gradient increases across western Kansas.
356 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2019 A cold front has been slowly sagging south through the Plains overnight, though temperatures behind it have not been terribly impressive only falling into the 30s, save for those stations near the US/Canada border that did slip into the 20s. Those are pretty stout for this time of year and appear likely to raise highs back into the 70s again today before the cooler air can filter in overnight.
There will be a small uptick in winds across the ridges of the central mountains and along the Montana border as well today.
Pleasant weather conditions will persist through the week as high pressure dominates. This pattern is defined by a ridge of high pressure off of the Pacific Northwest Coast and an area of low pressure off of the southern California Coast. By late week, the Rex Block will begin to break down as the aforementioned upper level low shifts eastward into the Desert Southwest and dissipates. This will allow for the ridge of high pressure to build over the West Coast late in the week. Marine layer has finally return along the coast however dry air inland has kept the low clouds predominately along the coastal interface.
/issued 324 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2019/ Latest regional surface analysis shows high pressure centered along the mid atlantic and wedged on the lee side of the Appalachians and into the local area. A few temperatures across the northern tier have already fallen to at or just below freezing while mid to upper 30s are the rule across the remainder of North GA and even into Central portions. By this evening and into the overnight period, continued isentropic lift along with the development of an inverted trough off the southeast coast will be just enough for introduction of isolated pops. Much warmer temps for tonight expected with 40s for the north, and only making it to the 50s for portions of Central GA.
High pressure remains centered just off the West Coast through midweek for prevalent above average/mild high temperatures and light valley winds.
/issued 356 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2019/ A cold front has been slowly sagging south through the Plains overnight, though temperatures behind it have not been terribly impressive only falling into the 30s, save for those stations near the US/Canada border that did slip into the 20s. Those are pretty stout for this time of year and appear likely to raise highs back into the 70s again today before the cooler air can filter in overnight.
We will see an increase in clouds from north to south today and tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. With south winds today, highs this afternoon will be a little warmer than yesterday. As the high moves east of our region Tuesday, winds will become southerly and will result in a modest increase in temperatures and significant increase in moisture.
/issued 355 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2019/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): A pleasantly cool morning to start the day today with lows in the upper 50s in the northern ranchlands and the low to mid 60s elsewhere. Light to moderate south- southeasterly winds will continue to increase the low to mid level moisture through tomorrow, leading to increased cloud cover.
/issued 344 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2019/ The eastern CONUS trough remains firmly in place this morning with strong, quasi-zonal flow aloft over MS/OH Valleys. A strong polar jet is situated over the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic states and is partially responsible for the high clouds streaming across the region at this time. Finally, there remains a cut-off cyclone over SoCal, but it won't be a player for us for a few more days. The cold front to our northwest will approach the Mid-South tonight into early Tuesday. Temperatures will remain well above freezing, so no impacts are anticipated. Highs today will be in the low to mid 60s with south winds 6-12 mph this afternoon.
301 AM MST Mon Nov 4 2019 Current surface map shows High pressure across eastern Montana into western South Dakota, with cold front back up against the Rockies in Montana and Wyoming. As weak clipper system moves through the Northern Plains Tuesday/Tuesday night, reinforcing cold front slips through the area Tuesday night.
High pressure just off the California coast will move to near the coast for late in the week into the weekend with the marine layer becoming shallower and night and morning coastal low clouds and fog patchier.
329 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2019 Cloud cover will be on the increase today as a cold front and upper trough move into the region. A cold front moves through the area late Wed into Wed night, slowing or temporarily stalling over the southern CWA. Fri will be cooler with highs in the 40s and Sat will see highs in the 50s. Will continue low level wind shear through early morning at Springfield and Joplin as a cold front approaches the region from the west.
Period will begin with a mean U/L trough across much of the CONUS generally east of the Rockies with a sharp U/L ridge off the west coast of the U. Subtropical ridge will extend across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida. At the surface, a frontal boundary across south Florida will gradually lift north over the Florida peninsula as a warm front today and Tuesday. Daytime high temperatures will run in the lower 80s north.
Cooler airmass will settle into the urban corridor and northeast plains today, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s.
406 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2019 High pressure will move farther off the coast through tonight. A trough will be near the coast tonight into Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Most of the moisture associated with the trough and ahead of the cold front will stay east of the forecast area.
344 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2019 The eastern CONUS trough remains firmly in place this morning with strong, quasi-zonal flow aloft over MS/OH Valleys. A strong polar jet is situated over the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic states and is partially responsible for the high clouds streaming across the region at this time. Finally, there remains a cut-off cyclone over SoCal, but it won't be a player for us for a few more days. The cold front to our northwest will approach the Mid-South tonight into early Tuesday. Temperatures will remain well above freezing, so no impacts are anticipated. Highs today will be in the low to mid 60s with south winds 6-12 mph this afternoon.
340 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2019 Weak cold front is currently through NW OK and will continue southeastward through the day.
Another Weak Cold Front but Dry. Another weak cold front will push, from north to south, across West Central Texas today. This front will not initiate any showers or thunderstorms; however, it will bring some cooler air. The cooler air will likely produce cooler highs today, mainly across the Big Country. Elsewhere today, the cooler air won't have much impact on afternoon highs, which will likely range from around 80 to the mid 80s. For tonight, winds from the north will continue to bring cooler air into West Central Texas.
306 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2019 We will see an increase in clouds from north to south today and tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. With south winds today, highs this afternoon will be a little warmer than yesterday. As the high moves east of our region Tuesday, winds will become southerly and will result in a modest increase in temperatures and significant increase in moisture.
A weak cold front will move through KABI this afternoon resulting in winds shifting out of the northwest around 21Z. Another Weak Cold Front but Dry. Another weak cold front will push, from north to south, across West Central Texas today. This front will not initiate any showers or thunderstorms; however, it will bring some cooler air. The cooler air will likely produce cooler highs today, mainly across the Big Country. Elsewhere today, the cooler air won't have much impact on afternoon highs, which will likely range from around 80 to the mid 80s. For tonight, winds from the north will continue to bring cooler air into West Central Texas.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): A pleasantly cool morning to start the day today with lows in the upper 50s in the northern ranchlands and the low to mid 60s elsewhere. Light to moderate south- southeasterly winds will continue to increase the low to mid level moisture through tomorrow, leading to increased cloud cover.
We may see some light snow or flurries as the jet stream shifts over the region, but conditions should be otherwise dry and cooler than yesterday.
Broad low pressure will cover the US east of the Rocky Mountains with a blocking pattern over the western US and eastern Pacific.
526 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2019 Cloud cover will be on the increase today as a cold front and upper trough move into the region. A cold front moves through the area late Wed into Wed night, slowing or temporarily stalling over the southern CWA. Fri will be cooler with highs in the 40s and Sat will see highs in the 50s. Otherwise, expect a wind switch today following the passage of a cold front.
408 AM MST Mon Nov 4 2019 Northwest flow aloft continues across the area another day, while slightly cooler air mass spreads across the eastern plains.
A very stable pattern due to high pressure off the West Coast will remain for the next several days keeping mild temperatures and dry weather conditions. A rex block with a weak trough off the SCal coast and a ridge along the coast north of the low. The ridge will provide above normal day time temperatures, but overnight lows may be on the chilly side with a dry airmass over central CA.
We are going to see a development of inverted trough across the east this afternoon into tonight, thanks in part to increased vorticity around the 500 mb ridge as it begins to lift out of the area.
426 AM MST Mon Nov 4 2019 Current surface map shows High pressure across eastern Montana into western South Dakota, with cold front back up against the Rockies in Montana and Wyoming. As weak clipper system moves through the Northern Plains Tuesday/Tuesday night, reinforcing cold front slips through the area Tuesday night.
616 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2019 Surface analysis as of 1030Z shows the cold front draped across northern North Dakota approximately from Watford City to Rolla. A surface cold front was analyzed just across the International Border in southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba as of 730Z, with northwest flow continuing aloft. Some light snow is ongoing across the area both from the incoming cold front and in the wake of a second cold front that passed through earlier this evening.
623 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2019 Highs today will climb into the low to mid 50s with a low chance of light rain this afternoon into tonight.
/Issued 340 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2019/ Weak cold front is currently through NW OK and will continue southeastward through the day.
544 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2019 Partly to mostly cloudy skies will prevail across central Illinois today with afternoon high temperatures topping out in the lower to middle 50s. As a cold front drops southward through the region, scattered showers will develop along and south of a Danville to Taylorville line by this evening. A weak cold front currently extending from Minnesota to Kansas will push eastward into central Illinois today. Thanks to a ridge of high pressure across the Deep South, northward moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico will essentially be blocked. Have therefore gone with a partly to mostly cloudy but dry day with afternoon highs in the lower to middle 50s. Persistent upper troughing will dominate the Midwest/Great Lakes through the extended.
1041 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2019 High pressure will move farther off the coast through tonight. A trough will be near the coast tonight into Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Most of the moisture associated with the trough and ahead of the cold front will stay east of the forecast area.
This, along with the passage of a weak cold front, have kept temperatures cooler today, with readings this afternoon generally in the lower 50s.
Afternoon scattered to broken VFR cumulus deck will dominate today, with clouds dissipating by evening but plenty of cirrus and a few altocumulus likely overnight as mid and high level moisture streams across south Texas ahead of northwest Mexico upper level trough whose flow taps the tropics.
High pressure will build across the region this weekend creating warmer and dry weather, and even patchier low clouds along the coast. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO At 7 AM, water vapor satellite showed and upper-level ridge centered off the northern CA coast and a cut off low centered just off the southern CA coast.
Definitely warmer with limited cloud cover and downslope warming west winds helping 700 mb temperatures to reach near -1 Celsius, yielding maximum temperatures in the upper 40s and 50s.
109 PM EST Mon Nov 4 2019 High pressure will move farther off the coast through tonight. A trough will be near the coast tonight into Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Most of the moisture associated with the trough and ahead of the cold front will stay east of the forecast area.
951 AM MST Mon Nov 4 2019 Current surface map shows High pressure across eastern Montana into western South Dakota, with cold front back up against the Rockies in Montana and Wyoming. As weak clipper system moves through the Northern Plains Tuesday/Tuesday night, reinforcing cold front slips through the area Tuesday night.
Temperatures are running in the low to mid 60s. An upper low over Canada will rotate southeast, with its trough swinging through the Lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through Election Day. A narrow band of enhanced low to mid level moisture will be focused along a cold frontal boundary, also underneath the right entrance region of an upper jet. Thicker cloud cover arriving tonight will keep overnight lows in the lower 40s. Highs will reach the low to mid 50s.
1032 AM MST Mon Nov 4 2019 Northwest flow aloft continues across the area another day, while slightly cooler air mass spreads across the eastern plains.
1250 PM MST Mon Nov 4 2019 Main concern with the forecast period will be the cold front moving through the region and cooler temperatures. The cold front is currently draped through the Tri-State area, dividing the region in half. An upper trough persists over the northern half of the nation, extending from Washington state to New England with northwest flow aloft over the Tri-State area. High pressure will build over the region Monday afternoon resulting in some lighter winds and dry conditions. Monday night, the forecast will remain dry as the trough eases eastward and high pressure remains over the Central High Plains. Tuesday will be several degrees warmer with highs returning to normal (upper 50s to low 60s). Northwest flow will become west- northwesterly through the day as the upper trough lifts to the northeast.