Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Warmer interior temperatures will return on Tuesday and continue through the rest of the work week as high pressure builds in. HRRR model guidance indicates smoke will spread back to the coast early Tuesday morning to bring another hazy day north of the highway 36. High pressure rebuilds over the area on Tuesday. This will remain the marine layer fairly shallow through the work week as a strong low- level inversion returns due to a rebuilding upper high pressure ridge. The ridge will support to hotter temperatures across the interior, and the Excessive Heat Watch continues in place. High temperatures could potentially be several degrees cooler in areas of thicker smoke, and persistent smoke could allow long wave radiation to escape at night, further reducing the heat risk.
938 PM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021 Temperature trends continue as anticipated across the Ark-La-Tex with slow cooling into the mid-to-upper 70s overnight due to dew points remaining in the low-to-mid 70s.
642 PM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021 (This evening through Tuesday) Hot and dry conditions will persist across the area through Tuesday, as upper level ridging dominates. Warm and muggy conditions will prevail tonight, with lows in the lower and middle 70s. (Tuesday night through next Monday) Broad upper level ridging will remain in place across the region through the week.
934 PM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021 High pressure will influence the weather through late week. A cold front will approach the area this weekend. Quiet weather to continue for the next several days as high pressure surface and aloft influences the weather across eastern NC. By this weekend, a weak cold front will move into the area, bringing with it an increase in rain chances.
704 PM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021 Summary: Showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight through Tuesday as a cold front sweeps through the region.
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021 Warm and humid conditions with gradually increasing rain chance can be expected until cold frontal passage late this week.
518 PM MDT Mon Aug 9 2021 Cooler air continues to filter into the area today, with highs limited to the upper 70s to upper 80s. Upper low along the MT/Canadian border will continue E/NE tonight. as the upper low continues eastward, an upper wave will cross western SD. Warmer temperatures are expected tomorrow.
222 PM PDT Mon Aug 9 2021 High pressure will build back over the region with drier and warmer weather early this week.
853 PM MDT Mon Aug 9 2021 As the day progresses, a weather system moves eastward out of the area, leaving The Treasure State much cooler than when it arrived. Expect skies to continue to clear overnight tonight, with low temperatures dropping into the low 50s or upper 40s for most locations. A low pressure system exits eastward out of our area leaving The Treasure State much cooler in its wake. Even as the associated upper level trof is moving eastward, an upper level closed area of higher heights and the associated ridge builds over The Pacific Ocean off the U. Northwesterly flow on the leading edge of the upstream ridge aids in keeping temperatures considerably cooler than normal for the day.
The subtropical ridge is currently building into the region, with the associated ridge currently sitting over Central Florida. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s, with dewpoints in the mid 70s. As the aforementioned subtropical ridge continues to build overnight, our winds will increase in response. The National Hurricane Center has issued the first advisory for Potential Tropical Cyclone 6 this evening.
The upper trough responsible for convection across the Sabine River Valley will continue to skirt eastward leaving a subsident airmass across our region in its wake. /Issued 238 PM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021/ /Tuesday Night Onward/ A dominant mid-level ridge will allow hot and rain-free weather to prevail through the second half of the work week.
733 PM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021 High pressure will prevail across the area into the upcoming weekend. Tonight: High pressure remains the dominate synoptic feature, both aloft and at the surface. A broad upper ridge will remain over the eastern half of the country while Atlantic high pressure persists at the surface. Highs will be in the lower 90s. The persistent ridge will maintain similar conditions into the first half of the weekend with isolated to scattered diurnal convection and highs in the low 90s.
Given the higher levels of moisture and cloud coverage, temperatures will be cooler this week.
Cooler air continues to filter into the area today, with highs limited to the upper 70s to upper 80s. Upper low along the MT/Canadian border will continue E/NE tonight. as the upper low continues eastward, an upper wave will cross western SD. Warmer temperatures are expected tomorrow.
As the day progresses, a weather system moves eastward out of the area, leaving The Treasure State much cooler than when it arrived. A low pressure system exits eastward out of our area leaving The Treasure State much cooler in its wake. Even as the associated upper level trof is moving eastward, an upper level closed area of higher heights and the associated ridge builds over The Pacific Ocean off the U. Northwesterly flow on the leading edge of the upstream ridge aids in keeping temperatures considerably cooler than normal for the day.
A look at the water vapor loop indicates a mid-level (H7-H5) ridge across the Southeast beneath a broad upper-level (H25) trough. Temperatures are in the low 90s with our southern counties in the mid 90s. High pressure will begin to strengthen over the area allowing temperatures to increase throughout the week.
651 PM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021 The primary concern in the short term is the cold front which will move through the area late tonight and Tuesday morning. This frontal boundary is currently located over the eastern Dakotas and will be kicked eastward later tonight as the upper low evident over eastern Montana in water vapor imagery moves eastward. For now, continued to bring mostly chance PoPs eastward across the forecast area late tonight through the day on Tuesday, lingering some into Tuesday night across the far south/southeast as the baroclinic zone looks to hang up down in that area as the upper trough moves east of the region.
657 PM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021 Warm and humid conditions with gradually increasing rain chance can be expected until cold frontal passage late this week.
451 PM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021 Summary: Showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight through Tuesday as a cold front sweeps through the region.
The evening KBRO sounding shows a pretty dry atms in place over the RGV as 500 mb ridging prevails over the Gulf of Mex. With ridging dominating at mid levels, subsidence will help to keep PoPs next to nil.
Tonight through Tuesday night Upper ridge prevails across the Panhandles tonight through Tuesday afternoon and then the upper ridge breaks down by Tuesday evening.
334 PM PDT Mon Aug 9 2021 High pressure will build back over the region with drier and warmer weather early this week.
620 PM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021 Pre-frontal trough pushing into far western counties of the forecast area as of 19Z, with cold front a bit farther west over central SD into the Nebraska panhandle. Aside from the aforementioned boundaries, main upper level support will remain well north with the trough sliding across North Dakota tonight. Later tonight into early Tuesday morning, HRRR/RAP continue to hint at spotty elevated showers/storms developing well behind the surface boundary, closer to an elevated front and the right entrance region of a weak jet rounding the North Dakota trough. Larger impact of the cool front/upper trough moving through the area will be not only cooler temperatures, but more significantly, lower humidity levels. Broad upper trough will be the prominent feature across the northern Plains throughout the remainder of the work week.
524 PM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021 High pressure will prevail across the area into the upcoming weekend. Tonight: High pressure remains the dominate synoptic feature, both aloft and at the surface. A broad upper ridge will remain over the eastern half of the country while Atlantic high pressure persists at the surface. Highs will be in the lower 90s. The persistent ridge will maintain similar conditions into the first half of the weekend with isolated to scattered diurnal convection and highs in the low 90s.
631 PM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021 High pressure will influence the weather through late week. A cold front will approach the area this weekend. Quiet weather to continue for the next several days as high pressure surface and aloft influences the weather across eastern NC. By this weekend, a weak cold front will move into the area, bringing with it an increase in rain chances.
in the wake of the departing upper low which is now located over southeast Saskatchewan. Building ridge from the west will bring warmer/dry conditions tomorrow, with well-mixed and breezy W-NW winds. JKL Upper level low over northeast Montana will move into southwest Manitoba overnight with drier air progged to move into the region. Will again be cool tonight with temperatures in the lower 50s. This drives another cold front. but weather cold front through Tuesday night. northern Wyoming where the prefrontal trough does not arrive until the evening.
758 PM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021 Warm and humid conditions with gradually increasing rain chance can be expected until cold frontal passage late this week.
High pressure will continue to ridge north of the waters through the next several days, allowing easterly to southeasterly winds to continue, with a daily sea breeze near the coast.
The mid/upper ridge is progged to break down across the area as a frontal boundary is forced south in the wake of a vigorous mid/upper trough over the Great Lakes area. There remains differences in how much cooling we can expect within the column and how quickly the mid/upper ridge returns to the central CONUS but with multiple rounds of convection, the effective frontal position is expected to be forced south of the area bringing more seasonable temperatures to the area through the period. KGBD also may experience very marginal LLWS, but due to the low magnitude, it will not be included in the TAF.
941 PM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021 High pressure will prevail across the area into the upcoming weekend. High pressure remains the dominate synoptic feature, both aloft and at the surface. A broad upper ridge will remain over the eastern half of the country while Atlantic high pressure persists at the surface. Highs will be in the lower 90s. The persistent ridge will maintain similar conditions into the first half of the weekend with isolated to scattered diurnal convection and highs in the low 90s.
Strong ridging over the Pacific Northwest expands towards the Great Basin over next few days as long wave trough pushes north into Canada. Otherwise, expect the hazy and possible smoky conditions to continue under the ridge as we lack any good steering wind direction (southerly) to push smoke out of our region. With ridge building in expect warming trend to commence today with highs today in the upper 80s to 90s and highs tomorrow generally in the 90s.
(Today through Wednesday afternoon) This morning the upper ridge will extend from the Atlantic Coast to NM as an upper trough moves along the US/Canadian border. Wednesday will look basically the same with a weak ridge extending westward from the Atlantic across the southern half of the country. Expect temperatures today to be a couple degrees cooler in the mid to upper 90s with 100s along the Pecos and Rio Grande. Today through Wednesday the higher elevations will be favored for storm development that will move off to the adjacent plains with not much expected east of the Pecos river.
1244 AM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021 (This evening through Tuesday) Hot and dry conditions will persist across the area through Tuesday, as upper level ridging dominates. Warm and muggy conditions will prevail tonight, with lows in the lower and middle 70s.
GAH AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: Upper level Low responsible for the shower and thunderstorm activity today will push east of the area tonight. Another trough moves through Saskatchewan and Manitoba on Tuesday. Temperatures rebound back up to seasonal norms, but cooler than its been most of the summer. As the week progresses, another strong ridge builds over the Eastern Pacific and migrates over our area by the weekend.
High temperatures in the low-mid 90s and overnight lows in low-mid 70s. Bermuda ridge continues to extend into the region. Maybe a weak short wave on the western periphery of the ridge and weak surface convergence boundaries will lead to widely scattered thunderstorms mainly from the CSRA across the western Midlands. Max temps in the low 90s and low temps in the low to mid 70s.
Some cirrus wrapping around the building upper ridge this evening; otherwise, clear and dry weather. Low pressure has departed the region, and an upper level ridge is beginning to move in from offshore. Triple digits are then expected by Wednesday as the ridge begins to fully center over the region.
As the day progresses, a weather system moves eastward out of the area, leaving The Treasure State much cooler than when it arrived. Expect skies to continue to clear overnight tonight, with low temperatures dropping into the low 50s or upper 40s for most locations. A low pressure system exits eastward out of our area leaving The Treasure State much cooler in its wake. Even as the associated upper level trof is moving eastward, an upper level closed area of higher heights and the associated ridge builds over The Pacific Ocean off the U. Northwesterly flow on the leading edge of the upstream ridge aids in keeping temperatures considerably cooler than normal for the day.
/issued 938 PM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021/ Temperature trends continue as anticipated across the Ark-La-Tex with slow cooling into the mid-to-upper 70s overnight due to dew points remaining in the low-to-mid 70s.
252 AM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Warm and humid conditions with gradually increasing rain chance can be expected until cold frontal passage late this week.
145 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Midlevel cloud cover as well as a few light returns on radar have prevailed overnight in response to the departing midlevel trough trekking into the Northern Plains. The gradient aloft will decrease this afternoon as the aforementioned trough exits to the northeast, though locally breezy conditions will redevelop with gusts of 25 to 30 mph possible. CAM guidance continues to hint at the development of isolated convection over the higher terrain this afternoon but little to no precipitation is expected with gusty outflow winds being the primary threat given the dry low levels. Wednesday will see high pressure begin to rebuild over the Great Basin, allowing temperatures to slowly climb across the area. As a result, expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, focused along the higher terrain of the San Juan Mountains.
953 PM PDT Mon Aug 9 2021 High pressure will build back over the region with drier and warmer weather early this week.
1122 PM MDT Mon Aug 9 2021 Upper level gradient tightens slightly over the far northern extent of the forecast area as the upper level trough continues to move over the northern Rockies. Small wave in the bottom of the trough will help create increase clouds and limited convection over far northeastern UT and northwestern Colorado this evening. High pressure builds back overhead Wednesday through the weekend, with the deepest monsoonal moisture shunted south of the Four Corners across Arizona and New Mexico. This moisture very slowly eases its way back into the Four Corners region underneath this area of high pressure with no real forcing mechanism to move it much.
1117 PM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021 Warm and humid conditions with gradually increasing rain chance can be expected until cold frontal passage late this week. Despite the loss of daytime heating, there is enough instability aloft to keep shower activity going with the help weak trough.
(Today and tonight) Upper level ridging will remain in place across the area today and tonight.
Storms, initially isolated, are expected to develop over the next few hours over eastern CO ahead of an approaching cold front just north of the Tri-State area. Tuesday, expect sunny to mostly sunny conditions as high pressure moves into the region behind the front. As mentioned in the previous discussion, some moisture will remain over the eastern half of the area giving us a day break in elevated to near- critical fire weather conditions as RH values are expected to be in the lower 20s to mid 30s. Wednesday sees a return of the heat as temperatures approach the upper 90s to the lower 100s. Dry conditions are expected to advect into our area with RH values in the low to upper teens mainly along and west of the CO border.
148 AM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021 High pressure will prevail across the area into the upcoming weekend. High pressure remains the dominate synoptic feature, both aloft and at the surface. A broad upper ridge will remain over the eastern half of the country while Atlantic high pressure persists at the surface. Highs will be in the lower 90s. The persistent ridge will maintain similar conditions into the first half of the weekend with isolated to scattered diurnal convection and highs in the low 90s.
New updrafts over the past 60 minutes point to continued activity over the next few hours before the low level flow weakens later this morning. Storms should progress to the southeast as the convective cold pool develops during the afternoon with a line or line segments moving into the lower MO River Vly.
1020 PM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021 Pre-frontal trough pushing into far western counties of the forecast area as of 19Z, with cold front a bit farther west over central SD into the Nebraska panhandle. Aside from the aforementioned boundaries, main upper level support will remain well north with the trough sliding across North Dakota tonight. Later tonight into early Tuesday morning, HRRR/RAP continue to hint at spotty elevated showers/storms developing well behind the surface boundary, closer to an elevated front and the right entrance region of a weak jet rounding the North Dakota trough. Larger impact of the cool front/upper trough moving through the area will be not only cooler temperatures, but more significantly, lower humidity levels. Broad upper trough will be the prominent feature across the northern Plains throughout the remainder of the work week.
/NEW/ /Through Tuesday/ Persistent ridging aloft and a continuous fetch of Gulf moisture will result in hot, humid and breezy weather through Tuesday. Subsidence under the upper ridge should suppress all convection across the region Tuesday, but if the sea breeze can reach the southeast zones late this afternoon, there is a very small chance for an isolated shower or storm. /Issued 238 PM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021/ /Tuesday Night Onward/ A dominant mid-level ridge will allow hot and rain-free weather to prevail through the second half of the work week.
338 AM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021 The forecast area will remain on the western end of a sub-tropical upper level ridge that will stretch eastward to the southeastern CONUS.
157 AM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Warm and humid conditions with gradually increasing rain chance can be expected until cold frontal passage late this week. Despite the loss of daytime heating, there is enough instability aloft to keep shower activity going with the help weak trough.
Will also see breezy winds develop, and though they will be marginal as far as a headline is concerned, they will be close enough in combination with the low relative humidities, and have therefore issued a Red Flag Warning. High pressure moves into the area on Wednesday. High temperatures today will range from the mid 80s across west central Minnesota and northeastern South Dakota, to the lower 90s across central South Dakota. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s, with highs on Wednesday ranging from the lower 80s northeast to the lower 90s west. The period starts out on Wednesday night with an upper level ridge axis off the west coast with a large upper level cold vortex over eastern Canada.
333 AM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021 The weak ridge is breaking down early this morning across the Central Plains and Mid-Mississippi Valley with the main closed upper low positioned near the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border in southern Canada.
1248 AM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021 VFR conditions prevail through much of this period with high pressure in control over the region.
Storms should progress to the southeast as the convective cold pool develops during the afternoon with a line or line segments moving into the lower MO River Vly.
205 AM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Southerly flow around the offshore Bermuda high pressure will result in hot and humid conditions through mid to late week. Weak flow and an ill-defined pattern through a deep layer will persist today, highlighted by western Atlantic mid level ridging resulting in above normal heights aloft over central NC. E NC will see even lower convection potential, protected by even warmer mid levels closer to the heart of the W Atlantic ridge. Offshore ridge will remain the dominant weather feature for the middle/latter part of the week. As such, we should see fairly typical weather for early/mid August with daily afternoon shower/thunderstorm chances driven by a combination of the lee trough and a sea breeze.
Synoptic pattern features a 591 to 593 dm sub-tropical ridge overhead while at the surface, the region sits in between high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and thermal troughing across the higher terrain of Mexico.
There is a north-south oriented cold front positioned just east of the Missouri River valley. Between 03Z and 06Z, is when the cold front is moving, in earnest, through the northeast corner of South Dakota and west central Minnesota. On Wednesday, a cold front will have moved through and be departing the area during the morning.
Warmer temperatures in forecast are really a ramification of much higher dew points /lower to mid 70s/ that are expected to advect northward ahead of wave. As main, stronger short wave trough coming across North Dakota draws closer later in day, will certainly have to watch how convection develops. Previously mentioned higher moisture will still be lingering along with a trough or boundary on Wednesday. Stronger short wave trough will be pushing east through Ontario and this should drive boundary south of the area finally. Drier and cooler air should dominate leading to less active weather outside of morning valley fog setups. could be transitioning into mean trough so will see if active weather returns following week at all. VFR conditions to continue through around 10Z with increasing low clouds fl030-040 as a warm front lifts into the area.
307 AM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021 High pressure will influence the weather through late week. A cold front will approach the area this weekend. Latest analysis shows offshore high pressure in control as upper ridge strengthens over the SE US. Should be another quiet night with high pressure in control. By this weekend, a weak cold front will move into the area, bringing with it an increase in rain chances.
Ridging aloft and a constant stream of Gulf moisture will once again bring hot and humid conditions to the area today.
Subtropical ridge axis remains from the western Atlantic across the southeastern states to along the Red River Valley. Subsidence under the ridge and capping warm temperatures aloft will keep rain out of the forecast for most areas today through Wednesday. The exception being near the Coastal Plains to US 77 corridor where an inverted mid level trough, the seabreeze, and heating may generate a few showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon.
Weak high pressure in the mid levels will keep precipitation chances suppressed and allow above normal temperatures to continue under mostly clear skies.
CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 74 91 74 93 / 40 20 60 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 73 91 73 92 / 40 30 60 20 50 Oak Ridge, TN 90 72 90 72 91 / 40 30 60 20 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 69 89 69 89 / 40 30 60 30 50.