Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Winds will be out of the W/SW then shift N as a cold front pushes across the area. /JNE/ Another warm day is expected today! Highs will again climb into the upper 80s with dewpoints on the high end as well causing muggy conditions throughout the day. /JNE/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: Ahead of a cold front's arrival, another warm and humid day is expected across the region today. As the evening and overnight hours progress, the cold front sagging southward becomes less favorably aligned with the mean flow aloft, and severe potential should drop off.
Cloudy skies will continue as a cold front approaches from the northwest. A line of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected to move through the area along the cold front. The overall mid level flow shows an amplifying trough with a surface cold front swinging through this afternoon. High pressure will then settle in for Friday with an onshore flow developing.
308 PM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021 Northwest flow aloft regime will set up tonight as the surface trof and associated cold front that brought numerous showers to the region the past 24-36 hours exits off to the southeast.
Highs for tomorrow won't be as warm as today thanks to the cold front. Expect lows tonight to range from the low to mid 60s across the entire outlook area.
1053 AM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021 With abundant sunshine through the afternoon, temperatures should easily rise to the mid 60s to the lower 70s. Precipitation won't make a return in the short term, thanks to the building in of an upper level ridge and a very dry, well mixed boundary layer. Thus dewpoints will be a bit higher, but temperatures will be on the increase as well thanks to warmer air aloft, particularly across central SD (highs in the 80s near/west of the MO River).
An encroaching cold front continues to generate showers under an impressive wind field aloft. Shower coverage will diminish as the front completes passage later this eve, but scattered potential wl accompany upper troughing. A secondary trough is expected to track across the Ern Great Lakes Friday, with cool temps and isolated to scattered showers. A tight sfc pressure gradient between low pressure of the NE Coast, and high pressure across the Midwest, should result in gusty W wind especially as mixing increases through the day. The wind and showers should diminish late Friday as that high pressure moves east toward the Upper OH Valley region. with possible freezing temperatures along and north of I-80.
1231 PM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021 (Today and tonight) Upper low just west of El Paso is expected to move south into Northern Mexico tonight. Cooler tonight with lows mainly the mid 50s.
205 PM MDT Thu Apr 29 2021 Water vapor imagery and 500 mb RAP analysis showed an upper trough over the Midwestern US and a large closed low south of New Mexico today. Northwest flow aloft developed this afternoon as ridging amplified along the west coast. Skies were clear over the High Plains, with north winds gusting at 25 to 30 mph across much of the region. On Friday, the Midwest trough shifts eastward and upper ridging spreads onto the Plains. Meanwhile, the closed low south of New Mexico remains nearly stationary.
249 PM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021 A large ridge complex is in control of the sensible weather elements across the Florida Keys. Temperatures are in the mid to upper 80s, and dewpoints are in the lower 70s.
235 PM MDT Thu Apr 29 2021 Dry and benign weather will prevail across eastern Utah and western Colorado through the short term period as a ridge of high pressure amplifies over the Desert Southwest. Mostly sunny skies under the presence of the ridge will see temperatures rise significantly over the next couple of days. The high pressure system dominating the forecast across the Intermountain West will be suppressed westward as the next trough deepens along the Pacific NW.
A cold frontal boundary is currently moving into the area with two lines of showers also being observed.
Cold front is now located just east of the MS river.
622 PM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021 (This evening through Friday) Water vapor satellite this afternoon shows a cut-off upper low moving southwest of El Paso, TX, resulting in continued southwest flow aloft, with isentropic lift bringing scattered to isolated showers to the region this afternoon. At the surface, northerly winds continue to bring in cooler air, with temperatures about 10-25 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago (as of 1 pm, temperatures are in the upper 50s to mid 60s). Tonight through Friday, the cut-off low will remain pretty much stationary across northern Mexico, with southwest flow aloft, and northerly winds at the surface, while isentropic lift and upper level divergence continues to bring scattered showers across the region, with just a slight chance of a rumble of thunder here and there.
A ridge of high pressure will lead to warm and dry weather through the rest of the week, with milder conditions along the coast. High pressure remains over the area, but has started to shift east. A little bit of drizzle is possible tonight as the trough approaches the area, but it is not expected to be widespread so have removed it from the forecast. Friday night the trough starts to move onshore and the hires models are showing a few hundredths of an inch of drizzle along the coast.
High pressure will hold across the waters through Friday, with southerly to southeasterly winds over the southern waters, and westerly winds to the north.
The overall forecast trend remains on track as rain coverage is diminishing with the traversing cold front. Clouds and scattered showers will persist overnight though as upper low pressure digs over the region. A secondary trough is expected to track across the Ern Great Lakes Friday, with cool temps and isolated to scattered showers. A tight sfc pressure gradient between low pressure of the NE Coast, and high pressure across the Midwest, should result in gusty W wind especially as mixing increases through the day. The wind and showers should diminish late Friday as that high pressure moves east toward the Upper OH Valley region. with possible freezing temperatures along and north of I-80.
523 PM MDT Thu Apr 29 2021 Dry and benign weather will prevail across eastern Utah and western Colorado through the short term period as a ridge of high pressure amplifies over the Desert Southwest. Mostly sunny skies under the presence of the ridge will see temperatures rise significantly over the next couple of days. The high pressure system dominating the forecast across the Intermountain West will be suppressed westward as the next trough deepens along the Pacific NW.
All these warm temperatures are due to a unseasonably strong ridge building over southern Oregon and northern California this afternoon. The thin cirrus clouds are having little to no effect blocking the incoming solar rays. Records Site 2pm Temperature Old Records Alturas 81 80 (1968, 1998) Montague 81 85 (1957) Mt Shasta City 82 84 (1981) Klamath Falls 77 82 (1981) As for tonight, we'll see upper level clouds persist with relatively warmer overnight temperatures east of the Cascades and normal temperatures west of the Cascades and along the coast. Temperatures should be trending cooler into Friday as the upper level ridge isn't as strong and begins to break down.
19z WV satellite shows a slow moving positively tilted upper trough sliding eastward, currently located over a Kansas City-El Paso axis with an upper low cutting off at the base of this feature near El Paso. Friday, upper low continues to spin over northern Mexico, with perturbations in said flow rotating around the north side of this feature too far to our south to appreciably impact our CWA.
1032 PM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021 A dry cold frontal passage is expected late tonight and into Friday.
507 PM MDT Thu Apr 29 2021 Broad northwesterly flow aloft persists across the region as trough axis pivots through the Midwest and a cut off upper low continues to churn across the SW US/southern Plains. Further upstream, an upper ridge is building across the western half of the US. This ridge will slide eastward, becoming centered over the northern Plains by Friday afternoon. The ridge will flatten a bit as a trough pushes into the Pacific NW and embedded waves translate eastward.
A sharpening ridge will build across Colorado with continued warm advection. Winds will remain light and skies will be sunny with the dry upper level ridge overhead. Friday night will be warm under the broad upper ridge, with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s F on the plains and mid 30s F in the mountains.
These showers developed along a cold front which has now shifted well east and south of the area. A second cold front over northern Wisconsin will sweep southward overnight and may bring a few light showers to the northeast CWA including Sheboygan. Kavinsky (Issued 350 PM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021) Tonight through Friday night: The mid level wave and cold front has begun to move through Wisconsin this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms have begun developing along the cold front. The scattered precipitaion will move along the cold front, which should be clear of southern Wisconsin by tonight. Cold air advection will increase behind the front and high pressure will begin to move into the Great Lakes Region tonight.
719 PM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021 A dry cold frontal passage is expected late tonight and into Friday.
Low temperatures tonight will be warmer with light downslope winds into the surface lee side trough holding temperatures up in the 40s along the lower eastern slopes. while pockets of mid to upper 30s will reside along the lower Arkansas River valley. Temperatures will rebound nicely for Friday with highs climbing back into the 80s across the plains, 70s for the mountains, and 50s and 60s across the higher mountains.
Northwest flow aloft regime will set up tonight as the surface trof and associated cold front that brought numerous showers to the region the past 24-36 hours exits off to the southeast.
546 PM MDT Thu Apr 29 2021 Water vapor imagery and 500 mb RAP analysis showed an upper trough over the Midwestern US and a large closed low south of New Mexico today. Northwest flow aloft developed this afternoon as ridging amplified along the west coast. Skies were clear over the High Plains, with north winds gusting at 25 to 30 mph across much of the region. On Friday, the Midwest trough shifts eastward and upper ridging spreads onto the Plains. Meanwhile, the closed low south of New Mexico remains nearly stationary.
First, though, an upper level trough axis will move through the area late this afternoon into this evening. It appears that the extent of the precipitation along with this trough is the band ongoing from eastern Michigan down into far northwest central Indiana. Convective temperatures may be reachable tomorrow, with some fair weather cumulus possible as a secondary upper low slides southeastward through the northern and eastern Great Lakes, but despite some steep low level lapse rates, a general lack of moisture should prevent any precipitation extending this far down into the area. Expect a fairly wide range of temperatures from northeast to southwest across the area tomorrow afternoon as a backdoor cold front slides into the area with the upper low pushing through the Great Lakes.
933 PM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021 The cold front is exiting the region, taking its rain and clouds along with it. Afternoon highs will reach near 70F, slightly cooler than normal.
Well above average temperatures for the next couple of days as high pressure strengthens.
High pressure building in from the west will maintain the warming trend into the weekend.
919 PM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021 A cold front continues to move through the Mid-South this evening. Surface analysis this afternoon places a weak cold front from the Ohio Valley back through Southeast Missouri, Northwest Arkansas and back into the Hill Country of Texas. As of 2 PM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South range from the lower 80s across extreme northeast Mississippi and 70s elsewhere where precipitation/cloud cover has kept temperatures down somewhat. Shower and thunderstorm chances will gradually diminish through the remainder of tonight as the cold front moves through the Mid- South and drier air filters into the area.
218 PM MST Thu Apr 29 2021 A large closed low will slowly move eastward across northern Mexico, allowing a strong area of high pressure to build over the Southwest.
612 PM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance Cooler tomorrow, then breezy and much warmer for at least the first half of the weekend.
634 PM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021 The cold front has moved into far southeast Missouri, and cooler/drier air is filtering into the forecast area.
Cooler Friday, with a chance of showers early. Thus, removed thunder from the forecast for tonight as a line of showers associated with the cold front pushes through. This evening into tonight, showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, will continue to move across the area as the cold front progresses eastward through the CWA. Flow will turn northwest behind the front, bringing much cooler air into the area for Friday. High temperatures area expected to be in the 60s in the lowlands, with 40s to 50s in the mountains.
402 PM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021 High pressure aloft will continue to shift east over the next few days.
Isolated pockets of light rain continue to spread northeastward across the TN Valley this afternoon, in the deep-layer warm/moist air advection regime to the southeast of a mid-level trough digging into the western Great Lakes. Although limited boundary layer warming is slowly destabilizing the local airmass, this may not be sufficient to overcome the impact of light rainfall earlier this morning, with chances for redevelopment of thunderstorms along an approaching cold front appearing a bit less likely. A cooler/drier airmass will be advected into the region later this evening as the front progresses southeastward, with clearing skies and light northwest winds perhaps allowing for the development of patchy river valley fog early Friday morning, as temps fall into the m-u 50s.
High pressure aloft will continue to shift east over the next few days.
840 PM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021 Scattered to isolated are moving across the forecast area this evening ahead of an approaching cold front. Cooler and drier air behind the cold front will make for a more comfortable evening with overnight lows in the upper 50s, compared to the upper 60s last night. Main change to the forecast package this evening was to lower PoPs given the highly scattered nature of the showers on radar.
Return southerly flow/winds will develop overnight on the backside of the high. Northwest flow aloft will weaken Friday as subtle ridging aloft across the Rockies begins to shift eastward into the central CONUS. A brief warm up begins Friday as very warm air aloft (18-22C at H85) spreads across the area beneath the upper ridging. Saturday will be even warmer than Friday, and the warmest day of this brief warm up. Ridging aloft will be overhead Saturday as H85 temps climb even more to 23-27C. Along and just ahead of this feature it will be very warm with highs climbing to near 90F or the lower 90s. Note that 90F is at the low end of the spectrum and further bump up in temperatures is possible.
240 AM EDT Fri Apr 30 2021 A cold front will cross our region this morning, followed by a second dry backdoor cold front passage this evening. High pressure passing over the region Saturday will return temperatures close to normal.
It wouldn't be surprising to see high temperatures perhaps a few degrees warmer. These warmer temperatures will mix down to the surface. Combine that with strong warm air advection and there is the possibility for temperatures to be much warmer than expected.
140 AM EDT Fri Apr 30 2021 [Through 06Z Saturday] A light west to southwest flow tonight and early Friday morning before a cold front arrives. The cold front will reach SE GA Friday morning, then to the GA/FL line around 18z, then into north central FL around midnight. High pressure will build to the northwest Friday night, with noticeably drier air filtering south across area.
Another trough will track through the region this afternoon. A tight sfc pressure gradient between low pressure off the NE Coast, and high pressure across the Midwest, will result in gusty winds as mixing increases through the day. The highest gusts are expected over the eastern edge of the forecast area, mainly in the ridges. The showers will drift south of the area late this afternoon and evening and the wind will diminish shortly after sunset as high pressure moves east toward the Upper OH Valley region. Areas of frost are possible late tonight, with the threat of freezing temperatures. Dry weather is then expected through the weekend with warmer temperatures.
225 AM EDT Fri Apr 30 2021 A cold front will cross our region late tonight, followed by a second dry backdoor cold front passage Friday evening. High pressure passing over the region Saturday will return temperatures close to normal.
Today Through Saturday Night Upper low pressure is over northern Mexico with an upper trough along the east coast. The upper low will remain stationary today then slowly move east Saturday afternoon. The high then moves east of the area Saturday.
The cold front is exiting the region, taking its rain and clouds along with it. Afternoon highs will reach near 70F, slightly cooler than normal. High pressure settles over the Ohio Valley on Friday night, so expect a chilly Saturday morning. Min temps generally in the lower/mid 40s, but some of the more wind-sheltered spots in the Bluegrass region could get just cold enough for frost.
1132 PM MDT Thu Apr 29 2021 Dry and benign weather will prevail across eastern Utah and western Colorado through the short term period as a ridge of high pressure amplifies over the Desert Southwest. Mostly sunny skies under the presence of the ridge will see temperatures rise significantly over the next couple of days. The high pressure system dominating the forecast across the Intermountain West will be suppressed westward as the next trough deepens along the Pacific NW. Recent storms and warmer weather have allowed some green up at lower elevations. The trough and its associated cold front will nose into the northwestern portion of the CWA as early as Saturday evening, allowing isolated showers to develop across higher terrain.
338 AM CDT Fri Apr 30 2021 An upper level low will pass well south of Kansas through Saturday. The coolest readings around 80 are expected in south central Kansas, which will be closer to the effects of the upper low.
Winds will quickly diminish tonight as high pressure builds over the area. The high will move southeast of the Ohio Valley on Saturday.
Currently the cold front is near Montgomery to Auburn and moving southward. This would accompany the upper trough as it moves in. Clouds may initially clear some this morning but then may increase late morning and into the afternoon with the upper low. A little warmer on Saturday with highs in the low 80s.
Southerly flow will turn a bit more westerly on Saturday and allow much warmer air into the area.
With the high to our east on Saturday, southerly winds will pick up to 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts to 20 mph by afternoon.
313 AM CDT Fri Apr 30 2021 A secondary cold front moved quickly through the region overnight, shifting winds northwesterly and advecting another shot of cool, dry air into the region.
A retreating Western Atlantic ridge axis poking into extreme South Florida will become diffuse as a trough of low pressure settles southward down the Sunshine State before dissolving over South Florida early this weekend. Thereafter, another modest area of high pressure just offshore of the Southeast United States coast will much further offshore, as an area of low pressure develops and deeps over the Oklahoma/Texas states. Meanwhile, large scale subsidence in response to a strong mid and upper level anticyclone nearby will linger through this weekend.
200 AM MDT Fri Apr 30 2021 A broad upper ridge sits over the western CONUS, with northwest flow over the northern plains. At the surface, a trough is over MT, and winds across the CWA are light and variable. Upper ridge axis will cross the central states Saturday, while an incoming Pac NW trough begins to flatten the ridge. Another warm day is expected Saturday (especially across central and southern SD), but cooler air will begin advecting into the region. Saturday evening, a period of unsettled weather will begin as the trough shifts eastward.
Scattered to isolated are moving across the forecast area this evening ahead of an approaching cold front. Cooler and drier air behind the cold front will make for a more comfortable evening with overnight lows in the upper 50s, compared to the upper 60s last night. Main change to the forecast package this evening was to lower PoPs given the highly scattered nature of the showers on radar. A period of northwest flow aloft is expected from Friday-Saturday, in the wake of the northern stream trough discussed above.
404 AM EDT Fri Apr 30 2021 A dry cold front will move through the area this morning followed by a dry and breezy day. High pressure for the weekend will keep area dry.
The upper level short wave will shift over the Atlantic by tomorrow morning pulling the cold front southward to the Georgia/Florida state line by tonight.
A weak cold front is now moving south past Montgomery and Columbus GA.
Winds Saturday will be northwest to north behind the trough but surface temps will be much warmer as thermal ridge is over the area at 850 mb. Dew points will be higher, but with warmer temperatures lowest RH values will remain in the 20s. Despite lower wind speeds, with low RH potential with warmer temps, will mention near critical fire weather conditions in the HWO.
1PM temperatures reported across the area range from the 50s across the western mountains to the low 70s in the Panhandle. looking at Friday's high 10-12 degrees warmer over today's highs. Could have some fire weather concerns Friday with afternoon humidity falling into the low to mid teens. Warm and breezy conditions continue into Saturday as our next cold front approaches from the west. may see afternoon highs cooler out west as the front approaches.
As the weak cold front moves across the region on Friday and momentarily stalls near the coast during the day, PWATs will increase to between 1. This activity will settle down quickly before sunset due to loss of surface heating and as the upper high pressure area moves over the region. At the surface, the weak cold front will be in the process of progressing south of the Gulf coast Friday evening, and move well southward over the Gulf of Mexico overnight into Saturday, but is expected to begin moving back north as a warm front by late Saturday afternoon. Highs on Saturday will climb back into the low to mid 80s.
123 AM MDT Fri Apr 30 2021 Upper ridge over the area will get flattened out today. Therefore, temperatures will be cooler on Saturday but still warm enough to register above normal temperatures yet again, just not nearly as warm as today.
Temperatures behind the boundaries drop little, however as mixing has compensated somewhat for the cooler air aloft. Friday will see a warm front across the region by afternoon with some mid to high level clouds working east during the morning hours again by late afternoon and early evening. As low pressure over southern Canada tracks east overnight into Saturday morning, strong warm air advection will develop over Iowa pushing H850 temperatures up to 17C east and 19C west already by 12z. Though most of the warmer air will be skimming the top of the boundary layer, the warming of the column will keep overnight lows rather mild.
This low finally moves into Central TX by Saturday night.