Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A weak upper level ridge will be over the Pacific Northwest today. Yesterday's cold front has stalled just to the south of these areas and will provide greater amounts of moisture and localized lift. Initially the old cold front just south of Deschutes, Crook and Grant counties will be pushed north tonight. Winds over central Oregon will become windy ahead of this next system's cold front, which will move across the region between daybreak and noon Saturday. Good chances of precip areawide will accompany this cold front. Windy conditions will become more widespread Saturday with and behind this cold front.
Dry Saturday afternoon and night with high pressure in control.
Temperatures on Friday will be steady or slowly fall from the lower 30s into the upper 20s. Ridge axis will move east and be over the area by Saturday afternoon as the next trough approaches the central Rockies. Southerly winds will become breezy/windy during the afternoon as low pressure develops in eastern Colorado in response to the trough and high pressure departs to the east.
Warm frontal rains have spread into interior Norcal with snow levels quickly rising from 6-8 thousand ft to 9 thousand feet or higher after the air mass sufficiently moistened. Rainfall will be light overnite, with pockets of heavier rain moving inland after daybreak Fri as the warm front moves inland as the frontal wave nears 135W. Sly pressure gradients will be increasing with the approaching warm frontal wave with breezy conditions in the Valley Fri afternoon. NAM 3km really dries out/ends the rain Sat behind the cold front with limited convection mainly over Shasta Co Sat afternoon.
Mins overnight will range from the mid 20s north to the lower 30s southeast. As clipper passes north of Pa this evening, trailing cold front will push southeast across Pa. Precip rates will be low and with temperatures at or above freezing it will not be easy to accumulate snow across the southern CWA. However, upper trough and associated cold temps aloft will keep clouds and maybe a few diurnally-driven snow showers over the northern mountains.
541 AM EDT Fri Apr 6 2018 A fast moving clipper will pass north of Pennsylvania today, dragging a trailing cold front through the state during the afternoon and evening.
Areas of light rain/freezing rain will develop behind strong arctic cold front by this evening, transitioning to a mix of light snow and sleet overnight with some minor accumulations possible across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
A cold front will bring significant changes to the terminals over the next 24 hours. As for KAMA and KDHT, the depth of the cold layer looks far shallower so the transition from liquid to frozen could be in the form of freezing rain. A cold front will move in by 11Z shifting the winds from a southerly wind to a northerly wind. A strong Canadian cold front will push through the Panhandles on Friday. Am leaning toward the faster models, which means cooler highs for Friday. Some light freezing rain, sleet and snow will all be possible overnight Friday as the column slowly cools aloft.
636 AM EDT Fri Apr 6 2018 High pressure will move farther off the Southeast Coast ahead of an approaching front. Low pressure tracking eastward along the front will move into the forecast area Saturday. The low will lift northeast of the area Saturday night.
Thermal profiles suggest rain or a rain/snow mix to start as CAA is lagging behind in SoDak and sfc temps remain above freezing (made it to mid/upper 40s this afternoon). Snow totals remain relatively unchanged since the previous forecast with 2-4" across the Sandhills, around 6" near the Pine Ridge, and generally 2" or less south of I-80. Guidance has come in slightly cooler for Friday highs, resulting in mid/upper 20s which is a good 30 degrees below normal. Nebraska remains primarily in northwest flow aloft with the upper low hanging around Hudson Bay and a ridge over the Intermountain West.
357 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Today and Tonight: Subtropical ridge gradually weakens today as a trough across the northern Gulf coast moves southeast. Ridge will still influence the region with a light east to southeast flow through the day. Short range models keep this 593dm ridge over the region with above normal 850mb temperatures for today. Combination of dewpoints ranging in the low 80s to mid 70s will lead for another day of heat indices of 100-105F across most of South Florida with locations over inland Collier and Miami-Dade County could see heat indices above 108 today. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 70s with some locations along the east coast in the lower 80s.
As the already elongated upper high extending from NM to AR is expected to further elongate westward, our CWA will be under a more westerly flow aloft today and Thursday which will suppress the flow of subtropical moisture for our area.
632 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 High pressure over the New England States will continue to move eastward through the day. This will allow low pressure over the Central Plains to move toward the region on Thursday. As the low moves across southern Ohio Thursday evening it will drag a cold front across the area.
Overall column exhibits height rises in the short term period, most pronounced in the 850mb-700mb layer as a low/mid level ridge axis forms over eastern Montana and western North Dakota.
523 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Today will be dry and a bit warmer.
High pressure will make for an overall pleasant summer night across eastern Kentucky. Should see this remain confined to mainly valley locales where greater cooling will occur since crossover temperatures may have a difficult time being reached on ridges. High pressure was passing by to our north today behind the cold front which passed through. However, an upper level trough will begin to deepen over the Great Lakes and New England, allowing another cold front to drop south. In fact, instability will suggest a slight severe potential with the main threat being wind as the freezing level will likely be pretty high for any hail development.
High pressure will briefly ridge into the area from the north for Thursday.
Combo of clouds and cold air advection will result in much cooler temperatures.
331 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 High pressure through today. Strong cold front may produce severe storms Thursday.
Streamer shower activity will affect the Lower Texas coastal waters tonight, and with deep tropical moisture remaining in place, similar conditions to today and tonight are anticipated for Wednesday and Wednesday night.
143 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 High pressure builds across the area tonight into Wednesday and then offshore late in the day.
with low-level thermal fields suggesting temps about 1-2 degrees warmer than yesterday.
High pressure aloft will also bring seasonably warm temperatures across the region. Low level weather pattern will remain typical for the summer monsoon season with a broad area of low pressure or "heat low" over the western United States states and high pressure across the plains.
By Thursday and into the weekend, afternoon temperatures will warm to above seasonal averages for inland areas while coastal locations remain cooler.
High pressure over the east coast will control Indiana weather into tonight.
Even at 2 AM, dew points remain in the low 70s across most of Oklahoma and north Texas.
121 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 High pressure will provide another comfortable day with relatively low humidity and high temperatures in the low 80s Wednesday.
By Thursday the upper high will begin to migrate back to the West as energy digs across eastern CONUS.
This corridor of deep moisture will sag south gradually this morning with high pressure building into the northern Plains.
Upper ridging is centered over central/eastern Oklahoma this morning. Despite upper level flow becoming increasingly northwesterly with time, the low and mid level flow pattern will still favor warm temperatures across the region, with the 850mb thermal ridge still situated right over Arkansas.
330 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Today will be dry and a bit warmer.
123 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 A low pressure system currently over central Manitoba will shift E across far northern Ontario tonight and Wed. The cold front slows across the area and moves through the S-central and E tomorrow. As a cold front sinks southeast of the area Wednesday evening, the best chances for showers and thunderstorms will slide out of the U.
400 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 High pressure will continue to extend across the area into tonight.
418 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 High pressure will become centered over the area today and move offshore tonight. A cold front moves across the area on Thursday bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Southeast to southwest winds 10 to 20 knots with some gusts to 25 knots will become east to northeast 5 to 15 knots behind a cold front at the Guymon and Dalhart TAF sites after 02Z and 08Z Thursday. Starting tonight, a cold front will slowly approach the northern combined Panhandles bringing showers and storms to the region. A low amplitude meridional pattern will limit progression southward of the main lax gradient along the cold front.
Higher dew points that had been pushed to the southwest out of southern Indiana and central Kentucky yesterday and overnight will surge back to the northeast today as we sit between high pressure over southern New England and low pressure crossing Kansas. Overnight showers and storms should weaken Thursday morning, with storms redeveloping in the afternoon as a cold front to our northwest associated with the aforementioned low comes closer and a 5H speed max moves through the Ohio Valley. Dew points will be in the lower and middle 70s with precipitable water values over two inches, so locally torrential downpours will certainly be possible. Freezing heights will be very high and soundings are generally moist, suggesting that large hail is a lesser threat than gusty winds with the strongest downpours.
Those questions seem to be answered just a few hours later with showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front slowly tracking through the area. It appears showers and thunderstorms will be possible at times throughout the day as the cold front sinks south, with the best severe potential off to the south where some clearing can be realized. Rain chances will diminish from north to south tonight as the cold front sinks south and drier air advects in from the north. Behind the cold front highs on Thursday are expected to range from the upper 70s across the north, with around 80 expected across central and east-central Wisconsin.
Slight chance of convection today as a warm front lifts NE.
30" in southern Alabama --with the highest PWAT values alongside an axis of vorticity associated with the upper trough, and a bit more ridging in tandem with the lower values. The upper trough is also forecast to shift eastward, with increased 500mb ridging through Wednesday. This should result in a bit less diurnally-driven convection (though some will still be around) and warmer afternoon highs.
Large MCS currently ongoing across central Nebraska early this morning, along a warm front associated with low pressure over southwest Nebraska. Isolated storms continue to be featured by the higher resolution models late this afternoon across mainly west central into southern Illinois, but the main threat remains with the MCS that is expected to form over Iowa. The remainder of the forecast period looks to be pretty quiet, with broad troughing aloft staying across the eastern U. This will keep the western ridge from building eastward, and temperatures around here will be near or just below seasonal normals for the end of July.
345 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017 (Today and Tonight) The upper high centered over eastern New Mexico and the southern Plains will move little today and tonight. With slightly higher 850mb temperatures, expect highs today to be 1-2 degrees warmer than yesterday.
415 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Early morning sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the nern Gulf, maintaining a light mostly srly low-level flow across the region. Water vapor imagery shows ridging in place from the Desert SW to the srn Plains and Ozarks with dry air pushing swd into the nrn 1/2 of the forecast area. Next few days look dry but warmer as the ridging aloft expands swd with time. Models still insisting on a frontal passage late in the weekend as a digging trof over the ern CONUS breaks down the ridge.
An upper low over northern California will slowly move inland today, maintaining a slight chance of thunderstorms over the Oregon Cascades south of Mt. Marine clouds are along the coast this morning and are pushing up the lower Columbia River.
S to SE winds 5 to 16 KTs with gusts to 25 KTs will prevail with the highest speeds during the afternoon and evening. Temperatures near or a degree warmer tomorrow compared to today.
However despite the cold front moving across low level forcing is rather weak.
301 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 High pressure through today. Strong cold front may produce severe storms Thursday.
443 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 High pressure will build in today, then move off the coast late today through tonight. A weak cold front will slowly approach on Thursday, and move through Thursday night.
/issued 321 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017/ Upper level high is sitting right over the south central US today which will slowly slide westward later this week.
The inverted trough passing by to the south will be well west of the area by Thursday morning, as the summertime h5 ridge builds back across east Texas. Lack of instability around the ridge will further inhibit rain chances during the afternoon, and allow temps to again soar toward 100 degrees.
653 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 High pressure will continue to extend across the area into tonight.
Warmer conditions can be expected for today and Thursday as ridging builds back over the Northern Rockies. Best chances will continue to be in the high terrain. Mean trof over the Eastern U. with a mean Ridge over the west. The latency of the western ridge has allowed it to pull in plenty of monsoonal moisture and will progressively move more of this into our area until a pattern change to a downslope or northwesterly flow arrives to cut it off, which is not in the scope of this forecast.
High pressure building into the area from the north will bring dry conditions for most locations on Wednesday.
Leaning towards cooler temperatures and rain chances shifting southeast through the day on Wednesday.
442 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Southeast Texas looks to remain on the southern edge of mid/upper level ridging today, and this position in combination with daytime heating and precipitable water values rising back above 2 inches as deeper tropical moisture levels surge into the area from the Gulf should allow for some shower/thunderstorm development.
Light winds and seas will continue as high pressure remains parked over the waters.
1128 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017 Evening GOES-R water vapor animation showed the center of the upper ridge over the south-central CONUS and upper low near the northern CA coast. A cold front was located from south-central WY to northwest NE and eastern SD. GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite imagery shows plenty of monsoonal moisture spreading northeast from Utah and western CO on the back side of upper-level ridging anchored over the southern high plains. For Wednesday, expect to see less storm coverage outside of the mountains with the upper-level ridge axis building into the CWA through the day.
Heights aloft rise slowly today as a weak ridge aloft builds overhead. In the wake of a cold front, low level upslope east and southeast winds will prevail. Greatest coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be this afternoon west of I-25 in proximity to the low and mid level theta-e ridge axis and instability axis. Warmer temperatures as the airmass moderates and with less cloud cover.
328 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 High pressure over the New England States will continue to move eastward through the day. This will allow low pressure over the Central Plains to move toward the region on Thursday. As the low moves across southern Ohio Thursday evening it will drag a cold front across the area.
Upper ridge becomes more E-W oriented through the period with just a little less moisture to work with on Thursday than today. Did spread the 20 POPs a bit farther west than previous forecast due to the higher PWATS west. Highs not too different from yesterday; maybe a degree cooler in spots out west. Convection expected to be isolated as best theta-e ridge will be inland during the afternoon with convection more along the sea-breeze.
Lows will fall into the lower to middle 70s. PoPs will be 30-60% Wednesday with the highest chances over SW GA. Temps will be seasonal with highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid 70s.
There are no big pattern changes today with troughing still in place primarily across southeast Georgia.
The upper low will slowly drift northeast today, gradually weakening as it does. High pressure over the Desert Southwest will expand toward NorCal Thursday and into the weekend, bringing mainly dry weather and a return to hot temperatures.
This is all pinwheeling around a larger upper level high pressure system currently situated over eastern New Mexico and the Texas panhandle.
The highest concentration of convective activity will still remain generally south of a line from Butte to Georgetown Lake to Lost Trail Pass.
A gradual drying trend is expected late in the week as high pressure aloft strengthens across the region.
Another one is back across UT which will be making its way eastward flattening the upper ridge some more and providing another round of upper forcing across CO on Wednesday. Across the plains, surface lee trof is advecting some higher dew points northward across the far eastern counties. At this time, it appears that the highest potential for more widespread precipitation over many sections of the forecast district during the longer term should be realized from Wednesday evening into Thursday and then again by later this weekend.
143 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 High pressure will extend across the area through Wednesday. A cold front will approach from the northwest on Thursday and move through the region Thursday night. High pressure returns by the weekend. High pressure continues to provide dry easterly flow with temperatures already dropping into the 60s, headed toward the upper 50s/lower 60s by sunrise. Center of high pressure shifts east into New England on Wednesday. Temperatures will be a little warmer than today, with a return to mid 80s. A cold front with upper level support will cross southeast through the region on Thursday. Storms will be fairly progressive and the highest potential for severity would be for winds and heavy rainfall.
1102 PM PDT Tue Jul 25 2017 Dry southwest flow aloft and building high pressure will gradually warm temperatures this week to a few degrees above normal. A high pressure system centered over Texas will slowly build in into the Four Corners Region through late Thursday.
342 AM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Broad high pressure ridge aloft remains centered over North Texas and Oklahoma today with a resultant moist, southwest flow aloft over Colorado. Appears the focus for heavier rain will be over the Front Range Foothills and east slopes down through Jefferson, Park and Douglas counties in the elevated terrain above the low level stability. Temperatures will be cooler today with more cloud cover and under post frontal regime. CAPE will increase to 1200 to near 2000 J/kg, focusing over the high terrain and western plains and urban corridor - the eastern plains look too capped still on forecast soundings to see much of a chance of anything.
Apparently the low-level convergence has been sufficiently strong -- given the amount of CAPE -- to support development of deep/moist convection in spite of the time of day and lack of an apparent source of mid/upper-level ascent.
Starting tonight, a cold front will slowly approach the northern combined Panhandles bringing showers and storms to the region. A low amplitude meridional pattern will limit progression southward of the main lax gradient along the cold front.
355 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Southeast Texas looks to remain on the southern edge of mid/upper level ridging today, and this position in combination with daytime heating and precipitable water values rising back above 2 inches as deeper tropical moisture levels surge into the area from the Gulf should allow for some shower/thunderstorm development.
414 AM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Temperatures will cool today following the passage of a cold front and are expected to remain cooler in the 80s through the remainder of the week.
Onshore flow increasing tonight and Thursday over Western Washington will result in a day-to-day increase in late night and morning clouds and cooler temperatures. A warming trend is expected later this weekend as another upper level ridge moves into the area from the southwest. with stratus infiltrating much of the coast and inland for much of the Olympic peninsula while higher level clouds bleed in over the SE corner of the CWA due to an upper level low currently impacting N CA and portions of OR. Today and Thursday are expected to be trough days and as such the area will see cooling temps and increased onshore flow. Any moisture associated with the trough has clearly forgotten its passport.
126 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 An upper level trough will remain over the eastern U. A stronger cold front expected to affect the area over the weekend bring more unsettled weather and cooler temperatures. A weak upper low along the AL/GA border this afternoon will slowly drift east and eventually move off the southeast coast Wednesday night. Additionally, a weak cold front will move into the area from the north and dissipate. Overnight lows will continue in the low to mid 70s. A slightly drier airmass is expected to advect into the area on Thursday as the models indicate ridge across the central/western U.
This was to the north of an east-west oriented upper level high pressure system extending from the Desert Southwest across Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi Valley. A cold front was moving south through western Nebraska into northeast Colorado early this morning. A hot afternoon is expected with high temperatures in the low 100s mainly toward south central Kansas. The upper flow pattern over the central High Plains become more northwesterly by Thursday as the upper ridge retrogrades into the central and southern Rockies.
PW values remain above average as a warm moist atmosphere sits over the area in advance of a slow and weakening upper level low situated over northern CA this morning. The low is forecast by all models to move slowly northeast today and tonight, passing through the area Thursday. The EC is a fast outlier, pushing the low through by 00Z Fri, while the GFS and NAM have it over the area at that time.
326 AM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Upper level analysis shows high pressure across the southern plains with an area of low pressure over Canada resulting in southwest flow across the forecast area. At the surface, the cold front is well south and east of the area extending from the Great Lakes area though Nebraska with high pressure beginning to build in from the west. Overall, temperatures today will be cooler, but around average. The upper ridge begins to rebuild over the Rockies through the weekend with pacific moisture streaming into the northern plains.
Little change in area weather through the short term with a ridge of high pressure in control.
349 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Upper lvl ridge which has brought mid 90 temps across the area, will continue to do so as this ridge gradually expands eastward, protected by zonal flow aloft further to the north across midsection of country.