Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
With temperatures already running about 10 degrees warmer than this time yesterday, today should be *a little* more bearable than yesterday. Put that together with surface winds picking up over the next couple hours to the point of giving us a few gusts of 15-20 mph, even with highs in the 40s this afternoon, Wind Chills will make it feel cooler -- ergo, a little more bearable than yesterday.
Overall, outside of a cold front, the short term is relatively quiet with mild temperatures. The cold front comes through tomorrow afternoon, but we should maximize heating before the passage, so highs are expected reach the 50s to low 60s before the colder airmass infiltrates into the Panhandles. An H5 closed low passing over the Desert Southwest will get engulfed into the mean flow tonight into tomorrow and stay south of the Panhandles.
Today will be warmer with highs in the 40s. McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 27 53 34 53 27 / 0 0 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 26 48 34 48 25 / 0 0 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 25 48 33 48 23 / 0 0 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 24 44 30 45 22 / 0 0 0 20 10.
The same old pattern aloft continues over the region through Monday, featuring a ridge along the west coast, and downstream troffing over much of the CONUS. It should be mostly snow, but the west edge of the pcpn band may support a mix of types as warmer air aloft advects east over the colder areas of northeast South Dakota. Again, the northeast CWA is probably the area to receive the highest amounts, where up to 3 inches look possible over the Coteau. High pressure on the order of 1040mb will be overhead to start the period, with associated arctic cold and little warmup during the day.
1231 PM EST Sun Jan 23 2022 Dry high pressure will persist through Monday.
204 PM CST Sun Jan 23 2022 Lots of sun and temperatures creeping into the low 50s in a few spots at forecast time.
As of 18z this low was positioned near Nogales, AZ and is expected to shift to near El Paso, TX this evening. The best lift and moisture with this system will remain well south of the forecast area as the core of the low remains just south of the forecast area, therefore have removed any mention of precipitation from the area tonight. Westerly winds should be a bit stronger overnight which will help to keep overnight temperatures a touch warmer than last night but with most locations still dropping into the 20s and lower 30s. A weak cold front will begin to move through the region by late afternoon but will only result in a northerly wind shift.
158 PM MST Sun Jan 23 2022 An upper low will begin to exit far southeastern Arizona.
Should start to see some clearing over the next couple of hours and then through the afternoon as drier air builds into the area from the NW under high pressure. This dry high pressure will center itself over the state overnight, allowing for light winds and good radiational cooling, with freezing temperatures possible across most of the Nature Coast down through inland Pasco, and patchy to areas of frost possible generally east of Interstate-75 all the way south through Charlotte County as temperatures will fall into the mid 30s in those areas. N/NW flow at 10 to 15 kts over the coastal waters this morning as high pressure is building in from the NW. The high will be shifting east to over the state overnight, then continue east to over the Atlantic through Monday.
Currently, northwest flow aloft remains over the region, with low pressure over North Dakota. Models still suggest loss of ice aloft from north central ND southeast through the James Valley, so will keep a mention of snow/freezing rain here late this afternoon through the evening hours, and will also keep a mention of this in the HWO.
Iowa remains in the midst of an expansive trough surrounding a deep Hudson Bay low, leaving us under the influence of active northwesterly flow.
257 PM EST Sun Jan 23 2022 Dry high pressure will persist through Monday.
Temperatures were steady in the lower to mid 60s with dewpoints slowly falling to around 60. Cold air advection along the ridge's eastern flank should intensify late today, with increasing northwest breezes expected towards sunset. The fresh northerly winds observed this mornings along and offshore the Lower Keys have dampened somewhat, with current speeds sticking close to 15 knots. Breezes will diminish Monday, and will become easterly Monday night as low pressure develops across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.
The ridge will continue to weaken, and flow aloft will become northwest tonight into Monday, but the ridging will continue to dominate the weather pattern over the area. The ridges will see overall mild conditions under mostly clear skies with moderate RH recoveries, but gusty winds over the ridges will diminish today.
This will serve to drive a cold front south across the Central Plains late in the day on Monday but based on the timing, above normal temperatures will prevail across the forecast area.
1021 AM MST Sun Jan 23 2022 18Z TAF CYCLE Upper low over sern AZ at 17Z to continue tracking along the srn NM border through 24/12Z.
136 PM CST Sun Jan 23 2022 A cold front associated with this morning's Alberta Clipper has made its way through most of the forecast area, cooling temperatures from their morning peaks. So while the main area of precipitation will be along and north of the clipper's low, I can't rule out some brief drizzle/freezing drizzle across the northern most CWA as the low interacts with the WAA. The area will warm overnight and into the day Monday, before the attendant cold front associated with the clipper moves through the CWA Monday afternoon. By the time the cold front makes it to southeast Missouri and southern Illinois Monday evening, temperatures will have peaked in the low to mid 50s. The cold front will usher in an Arctic air mass, causing the bottom to rapidly fall out of the temperatures.
With low level southerly flow and WAA temps will be warmer with highs in the mid and upper 40s for most locations.
Today will be warmer with highs in the 40s. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 48 27 53 34 53 / 0 0 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 26 48 34 48 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 46 25 48 33 48 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 41 24 44 30 45 / 0 0 0 0 20.
A large trough continues to sit NE of the area allowing subsidence to dominate the region thus leading to mostly clear skies for most through tomorrow.
145 PM MST Sun Jan 23 2022 Latest RAP analysis shows a low pressure system over the upper Midwest which is bringing breezy winds over the eastern portion of the CWA as HLC has seen gusts of 25 knots. Over the western CONUS has a ridge as the High Plains remains in northwesterly flow. Winds are expected to become breezy as weak lee trough moves through the area. Breezy conditions are again anticipated to develop as winds become northerly at 15-20 knots and gusts up to 30 knots possible as pressure gradient tightens behind the trough.
High pressure will continue to build into the region tonight and quickly slide eastward on Monday as the next system approaches the area that will bring impacts in the short term.
1246 PM EST Sun Jan 23 2022 A cold front will cross the region this afternoon through tonight. High pressure will cross the region Monday.
Monday high temperates will trend warmer as southwesterly surface flow develops aloft ahead of the next southern stream system.
The base of the stratus is well above lower valley floors resulting in little or no fog in most of the lower valley locations.
1229 PM EST Sun Jan 23 2022 High pressure will build in early this week keeping the area dry and cold.
Ridging remains strong enough to hold inversion in place across local valleys and basins, especially the more protected ones like Jackson Hole. Monday will be the beginning of a fast/moving trough/cold front combination, setting up to sweep southward across the state.
1030 AM EST Sun Jan 23 2022 Dry high pressure will persist through Monday.
1047 AM MST Sun Jan 23 2022 Latest RAP analysis shows a low pressure system over the upper Midwest which is bringing breezy winds over the eastern portion of the CWA as HLC has seen gusts of 25 knots. Over the western CONUS has a ridge as the High Plains remains in northwesterly flow. Winds are expected to become breezy as weak lee trough moves through the area. Breezy conditions are again anticipated to develop as winds become northerly at 15-20 knots and gusts up to 30 knots possible as pressure gradient tightens behind the trough.
1033 AM EST Sun Jan 23 2022 A cold front will cross the region this afternoon through tonight. High pressure will cross the region Monday.
High pressure centered over southeast Texas this afternoon will move eastward while weakening, reaching the Florida Peninsula by late Monday night.
Winds will then shift to northerly behind passing cold front between 15-18Z and remain out of the north sustained 10-20 kts with potential higher gusts at times. Overall, outside of a cold front, the short term is relatively quiet with mild temperatures. The cold front comes through tomorrow afternoon, but we should maximize heating before the passage, so highs are expected reach the 50s to low 60s before the colder airmass infiltrates into the Panhandles. An H5 closed low passing over the Desert Southwest will get engulfed into the mean flow tonight into tomorrow and stay south of the Panhandles.
/issued 334 PM CST Sun Jan 23 2022/ A very nice winter day across the Mid South as high pressure moves east.
500 PM MST Sun Jan 23 2022 Aviation Section Updated A cold front backing in from the northeast will bring cooler temperatures into the region on Monday.
957 PM EST Sun Jan 23 2022 Dry high pressure will persist through Monday.
Temperatures will continue to rise for much of the night before a cold front moves through early monday morning. Temperatures will peak in the 20s to mid 30s late tonight before a cold front moves through. Patchy blowing snow may occur along the Buffalo Ridge during the afternoon hours before winds die down by sunset.
348 PM CST Sun Jan 23 2022 Fair weather is in store through Monday as an upper level trough passes well to the south of Kansas, with the central high plains in dry northwest flow.
448 PM MST Sun Jan 23 2022 00Z TAF CYCLE As a weak upper level low pressure system tracks eastward over the southern border of NM, isolated rain and snow showers are forecast over Catron, Socorro, Lincoln, and perhaps Chaves Counties this evening, then the weather is forecast to diminish after midnight. As the upper low exits eastward over central TX on Monday, a gusty northerly wind shift will occur on the eastern plains of NM.
High temperatures will be roughly 5 degrees cooler than today as a weak cold front associated with a clipper system moving across the Northern Plains passes through our area.
253 PM MST Sun Jan 23 2022 Cutoff low pressure system over the Southwest U. The next 24 hours will be dry with increasing mid/high cloud cover arriving in earnest Monday afternoon as another cold front slides down the Front Range.
Low pressure looks to be south of Devils Lake moving southeast.
High temperatures for Sunday will climb into the lower 60s, with overnight lows in the mid 20s/low 30s. Highs will climb back into the low 60s to mid 60s across most of Oklahoma and western north Texas. A surface cold front, originating from a surface cyclone moving through the Great Lakes region, will begin to move into northwestern Oklahoma Monday afternoon. This cold front will bring colder temperatures and strong northerly winds behind the front, which will limit the high temperatures in northwestern Oklahoma. With the dry airmass ahead of the front, no precipitation is expected as the cold front advances through the region.
500hPa pattern reveals generalized troughing over the central and eastern CONUS with some ridging over the west coast.
Freezing Temperatures and Frost for Portions of the Area Mid-Upper trough finally moved off to the east today with some clearing clouds then E Gulf strato cu field developed due to cold air advection and NW low level winds. Frigid high pressure center to settle over the area tonight with clear skies and very light N-NNE flow down the FL Peninsula for radiational cooling with temps quickly dropping by midnight. This will allow for good radiational cooling as the high center moves over the state and winds become light. Conditions will then moderate as the high center shifts east.
There looks to be a brief lull in the action early this evening before another round of snow moves in on the backside of a low pressure system tracking across the area. High pressure then noses into the region from the north, with dry conditions expected Monday afternoon and Monday night. Much colder air will accompany the high as well.
606 PM EST Sun Jan 23 2022 Dry high pressure will persist through Monday.
228 PM MST Sun Jan 23 2022 Turning Cooler with Precip (tonight through Monday). A backdoor cold front will make its way through the region tonight and Monday bringing widespread rain and snow as it moves through.
An upper low will begin to exit far southeastern Arizona.
May even some some patchy frost in the Tucson metro, but widespread freezing temps are not expected in the city.
334 PM CST Sun Jan 23 2022 A very nice winter day across the Mid South as high pressure moves east.
As an upper low continues to pull away to the east across northern Mexico, a Pacific ridge of high pressure will edge into the west coast tonight and Monday.
309 PM MST Sun Jan 23 2022 High pressure will continue to be the dominant weather feature over the Northern Rockies through Monday morning. Fog, freezing fog, and low stratus will remain in-place within valleys around the region during this time, particularly in western Montana valleys in the 2000-4000 feet elevation range. Watch out for the freezing fog riming sidewalks and other paved surfaces with ice today and tonight. Despite the low accumulations, the resulting decrease in visibility and slick spots on roadways will be hazardous to area travelers.
627 PM EST Sun Jan 23 2022 Cold front is just starting to enter the northern portions of the area this evening, and will cross eastern KY from NW to SE tonight. Few sprinkles and flurries are possible over most of the area, with some light snow showers possible over the SE mountains tonight, but with surface temps still above freezing over much of the area, little to no accumulation is expected. Enhanced upslope could be possible along the highest elevations in the eastern mountains. Behind the departing clipper, northwest flow will continue to be present which could keep low clouds and slight warmer temperatures across the area. Overnight and high temperatures will be warmer than they have been but remaining below average.
00Z TAFS: Persistent high pressure will continue to be the driving force of light winds and inversions for most of the Inland Northwest.
Lots of sun and temperatures creeping into the low 50s in a few spots at forecast time.
Current surface map places warm front across the central Dakotas.
259 PM MST Sun Jan 23 2022 A cold front backing in from the northeast will bring cooler temperatures into the region on Monday.
Fair weather is in store through Monday as an upper level trough passes well to the south of Kansas, with the central high plains in dry northwest flow.
545 PM CST Sun Jan 23 2022 A cold front associated with this morning's Alberta Clipper has made its way through most of the forecast area, cooling temperatures from their morning peaks. So while the main area of precipitation will be along and north of the clipper's low, I can't rule out some brief drizzle/freezing drizzle across the northern most CWA as the low interacts with the WAA. The area will warm overnight and into the day Monday, before the attendant cold front associated with the clipper moves through the CWA Monday afternoon. By the time the cold front makes it to southeast Missouri and southern Illinois Monday evening, temperatures will have peaked in the low to mid 50s. The cold front will usher in an Arctic air mass, causing the bottom to rapidly fall out of the temperatures.
As was expected, the lower stratus moved east along with a warm front this afternoon, but mid-level clouds have put a damper on temperatures, especially in our east, where high temperatures may be rather late in the day and not as warm as predicted highs (even after lowering them from the previous forecast) as mixing becomes at least somewhat stronger. Much colder air is anticipated to make its way into the area by Monday night as a spoke of 850 mb frontogenetic forcing moves south across the high plains, helping to put down some measurable snow, and clipping our far west for the edge of the measurable snow amounts.
Weak cold front continues moving southward into the area this evening as noted by northwest winds behind the boundary. Front will have little other impact on the weather, with lows tonight actually slightly warmer than we saw last night with lows in the 20s.
The exception will be across the northeast portion of the region where a weak trough may bring a very low chance of some light snow briefly tonight.
Utah and southwest Wyoming will remain under northerly flow on the front side of a ridge off the Pacific coast for much of the upcoming week.
640 PM EST Sun Jan 23 2022 Another low pressure system is poised to generate another inch or two of additional snow on Monday afternoon and evening. The eve update featured the ending of the Winter Weather Advisory as snow showers will continue to diminish through the eve with eastward progress of the low pressure trough. Expect a general 1-2 inches with higher amounts north of Pittsburgh, and in the ridges.
Did cut back on the freezing rain threat a bit on the eastern edge of the precipitation shield. Currently, northwest flow aloft remains over the region, with low pressure over North Dakota. Models still suggest loss of ice aloft from north central ND southeast through the James Valley, so will keep a mention of snow/freezing rain here late this afternoon through the evening hours, and will also keep a mention of this in the HWO.
359 PM MST Sun Jan 23 2022 Cutoff low pressure system over the Southwest U. The next 24 hours will be dry with increasing mid/high cloud cover arriving in earnest Monday afternoon as another cold front slides down the Front Range.
More high pressure localized in central Idaho brough about a more westerly component for winds, so while Big Timber and Harlowton areas have consistently gusted into the 40s, Livingston area continues to only gust into the 30s. Livingston winds will slightly pick up tonight as low pressure moves south into our area, but still don't expect winds to exceed 50 mph. Far southeast Montana could see some 1-2 inch snow amounts just in the higher hills, with just a coating of snow in the lower elevations. The cold front and snow timing doesn't look to pick up until Monday afternoon, with peak snowfall expected in the evening.
/issued 243 PM CST Sun Jan 23 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): Fairly strong westerlies aloft, abundant low level moisture, and coastal low pressure keeps portions of Deep South Texas, especially the lower RGV, socked in with thick clouds and overrunning light rain or drizzle. A mid level trough swings through Texas on Monday, providing additional lift and better moisture aloft. This will increase rain chances from west to east tonight and continue through most of the day Monday, kicking offshore with the 500mb trough axis Monday evening into Monday night.
427 PM MST Sun Jan 23 2022 Current surface map places warm front across the central Dakotas.
649 PM EST Sun Jan 23 2022 Dry and warming high pressure remains over our area through Monday.
220 AM EST Mon Jan 24 2022 Weak high pressure will move offshore today leading to a moderating trend in temperatures. This moderating trend will continue Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. This cold front will move through the area late Tuesday. Cold high pressure will slowly build into the area through mid-week.
1037 PM EST Sun Jan 23 2022 Dry and warming high pressure remains over our area through Monday. Low pressure moves east from the Gulf across Florida on Tuesday while increasing our clouds a bit.
1029 PM MST Sun Jan 23 2022 06Z TAF CYCLE Patches of low clouds and perhaps some freezing fog should continue to produce MVFR and IFR conditions for the remainder of tonight along and just east of the south central and southwest mountains. As a weak upper level low pressure system exits southern NM to the east on Monday, a gusty northerly wind shift will occur on the eastern plains.
312 AM EST Mon Jan 24 2022 Dry and warm high pressure remains over our area today. Low pressure moves east from the Gulf across Florida on Tuesday as a weak cold front crosses our area.
840 PM MST Sun Jan 23 2022 A cold front backing in from the northeast will bring cooler temperatures into the region on Monday. Then expect increasing/lowering ceilings as a cold front will move southward through the region. Light snow will develop along the cold front after 18z Monday and then continue through the remainder of the afternoon/evening. A backdoor cold front associated with colder air in Central Canada will arrive during the day Monday, producing a shift to north- northwest winds and gradually cooler temperatures. Skies clear out on Tuesday as ridging aloft rebuilds over the region. Mild and breezy conditions return through the remainder of the week with a strong, high amplitude ridge over the western U.
1251 AM EST Mon Jan 24 2022 Dry and warming high pressure remains over our area through Monday. Low pressure moves east from the Gulf across Florida on Tuesday while increasing our clouds a bit.
(Today) Abundant sunshine and southwesterly/westerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front will help boost daytime temps to well above normal for all areas. Expect highs generally in the lower to mid 60s. The cold front should sneak into parts of northeast OK late in the day. The upper low currently moving into far west TX will track east today, with any precipitation remaining south of the area.
-Freezing temperatures return on Tuesday. A surge of cooler air will arrive behind a cold front associated with that next low late tomorrow, but fairly mild temps are expected first. Highs tomorrow should reach the low 50s near and south of I-70, and will likely warm into the mid 50s near and south of I-35.
More high pressure localized in central Idaho brough about a more westerly component for winds, so while Big Timber and Harlowton areas have consistently gusted into the 40s, Livingston area continues to only gust into the 30s. Livingston winds will slightly pick up tonight as low pressure moves south into our area, but still don't expect winds to exceed 50 mph. Far southeast Montana could see some 1-2 inch snow amounts just in the higher hills, with just a coating of snow in the lower elevations. The cold front and snow timing doesn't look to pick up until Monday afternoon, with peak snowfall expected in the evening. The exiting trough gives way to weak ridging aloft, promoting drier northwest flow aloft and downsloping at the surface.
217 AM CST Mon Jan 24 2022 The next in a series of arctic cold fronts will move southeast across our region this evening. The arctic high pressure center will be associated with a very dry air mass, which has pretty much zeroed out any chance of precip on Tuesday. Although skies will become sunny Tuesday, strong cold advection will keep temps from getting above freezing over all but the Tennessee and Arkansas border counties.