Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MID-SECTION SHIFTS EAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE COAST THIS EVENING.
446 PM MDT THU OCT 29 2015 THE LATEST LOW PRESSURE TROUGH HAS MOVED OVER UT TODAY AS ENERGY SPLITS INTO AZ OVERNIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVER THE CO/UT BORDER SOUTHWARD TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF AZ. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS INITIALLY OVER OUR CWA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND INTO EASTERN UTAH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ASSUMING IT REMAINS CLOUDY TEMPERATURES WILL BE LARGELY ABOVE FREEZING BUT LOWS IN THE 20S POSSIBLE IF IT CLEARS. WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
With a northerly breeze keeping the low levels mixed and cirrus streaming over the region, it does not appear we will get as cold as previously expected (especially over central and southern portions of the area). The high will begin to shift east tonight, but lingering long enough over the region to allow temperatures to fall into the 30s at most locales. Mid/high level moisture will increase in earnest on Friday, gradually building down into the lower levels.
620 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015 STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL QUICKLY PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
257 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015 A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IS CAUSING A CHANCE OR LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR FRIDAY WITH A SUNNY DAY IN STORE AND THE CLEAR OR NEARLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
Models are coming into agreement more now that a positively tilted mid lvl trof will be approaching from the plains by 12z Sat.
539 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015 A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
MOST OF THESE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS MAIN POCKET OF ENERGY SLIDES EAST/SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE U. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS AND A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW FOR THIS PERIOD IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOULD STILL SEE A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING AND COLDER AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS ADDING A BIT OF CHILL TO THE AIR.
408 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015 WEAK UPPER RIDGING JUST OFF TO OUR WEST HAS RESULTED IN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S AREA WIDE. THIS WILL ONLY LAST ABOUT ANOTHER 24 HOURS BEFORE SHWRS AND TSTMS RETURN TO THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS TO PIVOT EWD FROM THE DESERT SW ACROSS TX AND OK.
BUT MUCH COOLER IN RAIN COOLED/CLOUDY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST KS. SUN: VERY CONFORTABLE OUTDOOR WEATHER ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S. -HOWERTON INCRG SOUTH FLOW EXPECTED AS ZONAL UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AS WESTERN TROUGH DEVELOPS.
TOMORROW WILL BE CLEAR AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
343 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015 WINDS WILL SHIFT AND BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS REALIZED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO BE MODERATED SOME BY THIS WARMER/STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW. WHILE A FEW SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE THIS MORNINGS SUB-FREEZING LOWS. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.
UPPER- LEVEL TROF BRINGING THE CLOUDS/RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GIVEN THE DIFFUSE CONCENTRATION OF THE MOISTURE PLUME ACCOMPANYING THE TROF, IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIP COVERAGE THROUGH THIS AFTN WILL BE QUITE SPOTTY, SO HAVE REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 6PM. VFR CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD BKN/OVC MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK, SLOW-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROF WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE.
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
356 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL RESULT IN A COOL WESTERLY FLOW OF AIR ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES COULD ACCOMPANY A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
600 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 306 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015/ THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WAS SITUATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM EASTERN ARKANSAS. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION TONIGHT.
TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS HOLDING PRETTY STEADY IN THE LOWER 40S THIS MORNING. WILL PROBABLY BE TOUGH GETTING BELOW FREEZING. UPPER LOW IS NOW DIGGING SWD OVER SRN CA THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP THE PLAINS ABOVE FREEZING. AND THE 2ND AREA WILL BE WITH THE TROUGH AXIS ITSELF. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL SEE MORE SHOWERY WX WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FOR NOW I HAVE DRAWN UP 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE S SANGRES FOR FRIDAY.
The only question is how fast the high and mid level clouds will move in over the southeastern areas by sunrise. There will be perhaps a slight rise by sunrise due to a light southeast wind on the back side of the high pressure by morning over western areas.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS ARE STEADILY INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COOLER AIRMASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
134 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015 GUSTY WIND WILL CONTINUE TODAY UNDER INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER LOW.
/ISSUED 725 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2015/ ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION ALREADY ENTERING THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U. BETWEEN THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH AND THE NEXT SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AFTER A SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL DAY TODAY.
636 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING.
335 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015 UPPER TROUGH OVER WRN UTAH/AZ NOW TRACKING EWD. INCREASING DEEP LAYER LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL BE A TOP-DOWN MOISTENING PROCESS HOWEVER THE LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM REMAIN DRY WITH 19Z OBS ACROSS THE FCST AREA SHOWING DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. 12Z WRF-NAM NOW CLOSING THIS TROUGH MORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS OR THE 12Z GFS AND ECM.
A CLOSED LOW WAS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. WHILE A TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT WAS WORKING INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE MEANWHILE EXTENDED FROM THE PLAINS SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE TROUGH NOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH RIDGETOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ANTICIPATED TO HOLD CLOSER TO 40.
148 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015 A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH APPROACHING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE LATEST TIMING OF THIS IMPROVING LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GFS AND NAM WILL LEAN TOWARDS DELAYING THE ONSET OF THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS TONIGHT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING WHILE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY WILL RESULT IN HIGHS COOLER THAN WHAT THE LATEST MET AND MAV SUGGESTS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE STATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WPC FAVORS A MORE SUBDUED RETURN OF MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE UNDER RATHER WEAK 850-700MB FLOW AND THE PRESENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT. HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY FALL ACROSS THE AREA AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND TIMING OF THE TROF AS IT SWINGS OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE THE FURTHEST NORTH OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE TROF AXIS WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TRY AND BRING THE STORM SYSTEM IN A BIT BEHIND AND FURTHER SOUTH OF THOSE TWO.
THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL LIFT A LITTLE NORTH AND ALLOW A FASTER INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 80S AT THE BEACHES TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO MID WEEK AS AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND STALLS NORTH OF THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S. THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE IN FROM THE EAST AND LIFT A LITTLE NORTH. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST INTO MID WEEK AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST U. REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MAY INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW INTO LATE WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE.
AND A WEAK INDUCED RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD. AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP BELOW FREEZING FOR THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF SOILS WILL ALSO SUPPORT FOG FORMATION. WEAK RIDGING TAKES OVER FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY WITH A WARM, DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BRING TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S THIS AFTERNOON.
641 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL THEN MOVE IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. BELIEVE THAT THEE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH SUN THROUGH THE DAY FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 80S WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER READING IN EASTERN COUNTIES. LINE OF STORMS AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH THERE WILL BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY AND THEN SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT. STAYED ON THE WARMER END OF MOS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
552 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TODAY AND STALL OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON TUESDAY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER, SINCE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS SHEARING OFF TO THE NORTH, THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE IN, AND BY 00Z THIS EVENING EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO JUST BE NEARING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS MAINLY. BUT EVEN THE HIGHLAND AREAS HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN TONIGHT AS A CLOSE LOW MOVES ONSHORE IN OREGON. FOR WED THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND HAS LESS IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW THAT DIGS FARTHER SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. EXCEPT FOR THU BEING A DRY DAY IN BETWEEN THE LOWS. THE LOW THAT BRUSHES CLOSE FOR THE WEEKEND SHOULD ALSO ELEVATE WIND WITH A STRONG GRADIENT. A LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY AND TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.
140 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2015 VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. WITH THE HIGHEST. WOULD EXPECT HUMIDITY LEVELS TO RISE TODAY AS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL PULL THE MORE SOUPY AIR INTO THE REGION. UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT A SECONDARY FRONT. TIED TO A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS.
319 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS DEEP 1002MB LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN SD WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT RUNNING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO EASTERN IA. DRAGGING OCCLUSION/COLD FRONT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WI BY 18Z. FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AFTER 18Z AS THE LOW CONTINUE TO TRACK INTO NORTHERN WI. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/SOUTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WI/UPPER MI. LOOKS DRY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TAP OTHERWISE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD CONDITIONS.
A large low pressure system over the Oregon and northern California coast will be spinning off several waves of energy into the Northern Rockies the next few days.
501 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL THEN MOVE IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. BELIEVE THAT THEE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH SUN THROUGH THE DAY FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 80S WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER READING IN EASTERN COUNTIES. LINE OF STORMS AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH THERE WILL BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY AND THEN SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT. STAYED ON THE WARMER END OF MOS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
304 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2015 THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS FINALLY SHIFTED EASTWARD. AND A CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVE EAST. THIS ACTIVITY IS JUST AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAKENING AND OPENING INTO A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS AND STEERING FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS. THERE MAY BE LIGHT SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE MAIN COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z ON TUESDAY. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION.
AHEAD OF A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE PCPN FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN WI DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE RRQ OF A 120 KT JET AND A S/W TROF IMPACT THE REGION. THE WEAKENING REMNANTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE UPPER PENINSULA. THEN TAPER OFF AS THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW EXITS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED. RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S IN FAR NC WI TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S OVER MUCH OF C/NE/EC WI.
330 AM PDT MON MAY 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS, ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM JUST EAST OF KIRKSVILLE TO MOBERLY, TO SEDALIA AND SOUTHWEST TO SPRINGFIELD AT 300 AM.
Clouds will increase on Monday ahead of a slow moving low pressure system.
330 AM PDT Mon May 11 2015 Cooler and more unsettled conditions expected this week across the interior of NorCal as several weather systems affect the region. The far northern portion of the state will continue to see showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms today into Tuesday as the closed low moves over southern Oregon/extreme northern California. The main impact on the remainder of the area will be cooler weather along with locally breezy conditions. The trough is forecast to deepen along the west coast by mid-week as the initial closed low lifts northward into the PacNW and another drops southward off the coast.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE MID MO VALLEY TODAY ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN STATES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S.
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVING NORTHEAST. THERE IS THE QUESTION OF REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. FIRST THE COLD FRONT IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK. LEFT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF I-40 FOR THE EVENING AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL HELP DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND EXTEND THE LOW CLOUDS FARTHER INLAND EACH NIGHT.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREAT, ESPECIALLY WITH A LOWER FREEZING LEVEL TODAY. HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL AS AN UPPER HIGH CLOSES OFF OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO, AS THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED.
256 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TODAY AND STALL OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON TUESDAY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
405 AM CDT Mon May 11 2015 (Today and Tonight) An upper low was over South Dakota early this morning, with an upper trough extending south-southwest to the Texas/New Mexico border. Surface cold front was pushing south across our central counties. The aforementioned upper trough will lift northeast out of Texas today, while the cold front moves south through the rest of our area. Scattered shower and thunderstorm development is anticipated along and just north of this cold front across our southern counties this afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler behind the front today, with highs expected to be in the 70s across all but our far southern counties.
419 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2015 VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. LIKELY A BIT COOLER THEN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. CAPE VALUES INCREASE WITH THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY OVER OHIO. WOULD EXPECT HUMIDITY LEVELS TO RISE TODAY AS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL PULL THE MORE SOUPY AIR INTO THE REGION. UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT A SECONDARY FRONT. TIED TO A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO THE OREGON COAST MONDAY WITH A DIFFLUENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY INTO SOUTHERN OREGON TUESDAY.
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES STALLED ALONG/S OF I-20 LATE TONIGHT. DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND RAINFALL.
648 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2015 VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. LIKELY A BIT COOLER THEN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. CAPE VALUES INCREASE WITH THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY OVER OHIO. WOULD EXPECT HUMIDITY LEVELS TO RISE TODAY AS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL PULL THE MORE SOUPY AIR INTO THE REGION. UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT A SECONDARY FRONT. TIED TO A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS.
EXPECT THE FOG TO IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS 925 MB WINDS TURN SWLY AND INCREASE TO 20-30 KTS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. MARGINAL SFC BASED CAPE WILL DEVELOP FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THUS WENT WITH CHANCES OF TSTORMS ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE LARGE RAIN AREA WHICH IS ALSO SITUATED JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH LAKE MI BY 21Z TODAY. A PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY TO PERHAPS MO SUNNY SKIES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY THIS EVENING. HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW 40S. TONIGHT AS LOW DEPARTS EASTWARD WEAK PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW. BUT TEMPERATURES REMAINING JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND WARM SFC/ROAD TEMPS WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH BEHIND THE LOW. ON TUESDAY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. IT MAY BE MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW 30S. WE HAVE HAD A SUB-FREEZING NIGHT AS RECENTLY AS THE 5TH.
THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BROUGHT ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE REGION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WAS MOVING OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING AND HEADED FOR THE GREAT LAKES. NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. BUT A COUPLE OF HOURS OF TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA.
300 AM PDT MON MAY 11 2015 DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A COOLING TREND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND WEAKENS THE RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA.
The trailing cold front stretches from just east of Kirksville to Moberly, to Sedalia and southwest to Springfield at 300 AM.
SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS UNDER THE PREVAILING ANTICYCLONE. FOR TUESDAY, AFTER A COLD START, SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ALSO MOVE IN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS CNTL FL PROVIDING THE AREA WITH WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA ON TUE WHICH MAY HELP ENHANCE CONVECTION NEAR THE ALTAMAHA LATE TUE AFTERNOON. HOT AFTERNOON TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL GA TUESDAY NIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING THE PERIOD. BUT PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT ANY SITE STILL ON THE LOW SIDE AND TIMING UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH SO JUST VCTS FOR NOW.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
ON TUESDAY MORNING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
340 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2015 * DAILY THUNDERSTORMS FOCUS INTERIOR/GULF COAST THIS WEEK * TROUGH TONIGHT COULD LEAD TO FEW TSTORMS EAST COAST METRO AREA * MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL WITH RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA. AND THIS LEAD TO HIGH INSTABILITY WITH A NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAYER IN THE LOWER-MID LEVELS. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER THE SE BAHAMAS. ONCE THIS TROUGH PASSES WEST OF THE AREA. GLOBAL MODELS SHOWS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWEST OVER THE ATLANTIC OFF THE SOUTHEAST U. ACTIVITY OVER THE ATLANTIC/BAY LOOKS TO BE MOST PROMINENT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND A SLIGHT MOISTURE SURGE.