Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Latest regional radar loops show drier air starting to work on the northwest edges of the storm in the low levels, but wrap around moisture still pretty evident on IR way back into northeast WY. Cloudy skies will persists with general troughing around with some clearing expected over the far west Wed night. A broad upper level trough will remain across the central to eastern half of the US late in the week, with a highly amplified ridge over the west coast. Temps will remain below average Thursday, with a gradual warmup to near average temperatures over the weekend as ridge slowly shifts eastward into the Rockies region.
Currently, positively tilted long wave upper level trough remains extended from southern California north-northeast into central Canada. The two main embedded features impacting our region are a closed low over the Central Plains and an embedded S/WV trough over northeastern Montana. A few radar returns over my southeast associated with the closed low to our south, though zero impacts for our area.
Upper level trough and associated surface cold front is still forecast to bring a relatively short period of rain to central Alabama Wednesday and Wednesday night.
High pressure over the Southeast U. A few prefrontal showers will occur Wednesday, ahead of midlevel trof and associated surface cold frontal passage.
351 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2017 Early Wednesday morning, the strong upper low appeared to be split into two main circulations in WV imagery. Cold advection was ongoing across the forecast area with west to northwest winds but the relatively deep mixing was keeping temperatures a bit warmer in the low to mid 30s. Quiet weather persists through the remainder of the week into the next as a blocking, upper ridge strengthens across the central and northern plains.
The cold front is expected to move from the northwest to the southeast across Central AL this afternoon bringing at least a decent chance of rain. Cooler and breezier north winds build in and overnight lows could drop to the low to mid 40s for most locations for Thursday morning.
Strong high pressure aloft will lock in over the west coast states for late in the week, then expand east across the western states this weekend.
00Z as a cold front approaches the area. Nearly zonal flow aloft will transition to a southwest flow as an upper trough over the western conus moves east over the Great Plains. An associated cold front extending from the midwest states to the southwest states will approach the forecast area late Wednesday afternoon. /22 Cold front extending from the central Ohio river valley down to the Gulf Coast continues its eastward trek through the forecast area overnight Wednesday exiting the area early Thursday morning.
A cold front will result increased NW winds to near 20kts after 18Z.
305 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 One nice day today, then a cold front moves in tonight that will start the downward spiral of temperatures for later periods. Big changes on the way to the forecast in the wake of a strong cold frontal passage early Thursday morning. For now, it appears that any accumulations will be fairly light, with any meaningful accumulations confined to the higher elevations of the mountains (above 2500-3000 feet).
356 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 High pressure extending over the area from the south this morning will move East this afternoon and tonight as a cold front approaches from the West. The front will move through the area Thursday followed by broad high pressure gradually building in from the west through the weekend. High clouds will increase and thicken overnight ahead of approaching short wave trough with some lower clouds late. High temps will average in the upper 40s to lower 50s, with lows in the lower to mid 30s.
250 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 The main concern is a cold front over the mid U.
/Issued 835 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017/ A welcomed relatively benign and low impact forecast on tap as a mid/upper ridge of high pressure will dominate into Wednesday. The next player in the forecast will be a relatively weak cold front for Wednesday night into Thursday. This will initially keep the CWA on the backside of mid level ridge in SW flow. This cold front will be in the process of pushing through the CWA Wednesday night into early Thursday. CAA advection behind the front will keep temps much cooler than we've seen the last week or two on Thursday. esp across north Georgia where the greater chances of lingering post-frontal strato- cu will accompany cooler airmass. Sfc ridging will gradually work its way into the area.
352 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 Low pressure will track across the Canadian Maritimes Wednesday.
Meanwhile, a high amplitude upper ridge will dominate areas from the Rockies westward.
Low clouds are quickly clearing as the 925 thermal ridge builds in from the SW at this hour. Temps currently in the mid to upper 40s, should jump a few degrees and may end up in the low 50s in some spots before they begin to fall off this evening. Otherwise, the remainder of today and tonight will be dry as progressive upper ridge axis slides overhead. Strong SSW flow by Wednesday ahead of a cold front will help temps to rise to around 60 by mid afternoon, before dropping off dramatically behind the front into Wednesday night. Temps drop to the low and mid 30s through Wednesday night with the aid of some gusty NW winds.
914 PM MST Tue Jan 24 2017 Upper low has shifted into northern Nebraska pulling the strongest forcing with it. Water vapor imagery shows upper low in NE/SD moving slowly eastward. A drier northerly flow will remain over our region through the next couple days, with gradually rising heights and a mean ridge along the Pacific coast. Temperatures will trend warmer tomorrow and Thursday per the rising heights and downslope winds.
By Wednesday night and Thursday strong ridge will build over the Pacific Northwest. This result in cooler weather, with an abundance of low clouds and fog in the valleys through the weekend.
313 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2017 WV imagery this morning strong upper low situated over cntrl neb with a sfc reflection centered over nrn MO.
253 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2017 Flow aloft will transition from southwest to northwest today as positively-tilted trof axis pulls east from the area. Next trof takes shape from Quebec to the Great Basin by midday Thursday.
a cold front continues to move through the region and is currently located along a line from Cameron to Athens. Winds shift to the northwest behind the front and much cooler air will filter in through the morning. Highs today will be in the 50s and 60s which is around 15-20 degrees cooler than yesterday. The upper pattern really remains rather benign through the next 5-6 days featuring a large trough over the eastern U.
The high threat of rip currents as diminished as winds have continued to drop throughout the day so the high risk will expire at 7PM. High pressure over the southern Gulf of Mexico will slowly move over the Florida peninsula tomorrow morning and then east of the state.
1052 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017 For the 06Z TAFs, sfc cold front has moved through the terminal sites with north winds in its wake. /Issued 605 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017/ For the 00Z TAFs, sfc cold front will continue moving southward across KDHT and KAMA this evening.
205 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 Corrected Temps/Pops section at the bottom Warm air advection in strengthening southwesterly flow on the back side of a departing upper level ridge will lead to warm conditions today under full sun. We favored the warmer NAM MOS guidance for temps today with max temps about 10 to 15 degrees above normal, and the warmest readings are expected along the I-95 corridor. Light rain showers just ahead of an approaching cold front will impinge upon our northwest zones late tonight. A cold front will enter southeast Georgia Thursday morning, and then clear the region by the evening. Cooler and drier air will move into the region behind the front, bringing the first below normal temperatures to the region in over 2 weeks.
A cold front will move through the area late tonight. A cold front will already have pushed through the FA by tomorrow night. Surface ridging should put winds on the light side by Thursday morning which, when combined with clear skies, will allow for temps to be on the cold side with lows in the 20s and teens.
Late this morning, satellite water vapor imagery along with the 12Z upper air analysis showed the main upper low situated over central WY with 30-70 meter 500 mb height falls ahead of it. Surface plot had a low pressure in southwest KS with a warm front extending ENE. Temperatures have remained below freezing over most parts of the CWA with the exception of our south and southeast. Given the slow speed of the upper low, plan to keep light snow going in the north overnight and perhaps for a little while Wed morning.
1138 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017 An approaching cold front stretched from Del Rio to Denton as of 05Z and this boundary will continue to move southeast across the terminals through Wednesday morning. Cold front and early stages of a prefrontal trough moving into Central TX and North Central Texas. Areas near the coast may get some patchy fog to form probably just limited to the coastal counties the Highway 59 corridor should be the northern limit of the fog.
Water vapor loop and RAP analysis revealed an elongated trough axis extending from the primary mid latitude cyclone over the Midwest southwest into Arizona. The surface response was from the main upper low which was starting to weaken and shear out.
Only 2 to 5 inches expected in the highway 14 corridor, including Brookings, Huron and Marshall.
The potential for MVFR ceilings at FSM is non-zero prior to sunrise, but current thinking is that the lower ceilings will remain south and east of the terminal. Cold front has entered parts of northeast OK and will pass through the remainder of the forecast area overnight. Adjusted temperature/dewpoint hourly trends to better fit the current cold front timing.
Conditions are quiet across Middle TN this evening as upper ridging axis is centered over the area. South winds should begin to increase over the next couple hours as the pressure gradient tightens ahead a cold front which will move through the CWA tomorrow. VFR looks to continue overnight before an approaching cold front brings lower cigs and rain chances to the mid state. May need to be extended should LLJ winds continue and the cold front slows a bit during the morning hours.
Weak weather disturbances clipping the Pac NW will bring a slight threat of showers through Wed night, mainly to the higher terrain. High pressure is expected to take charge Thu/Fri, with dry weather likely to last into the weekend.
Expect incraesing clouds through the late evening and overnight ahead of the approaching cold front. Cold front moves through around to just after sunrise with winds shifting to the north. A cold front has moved through the Texas Panhandle, and will continue tracking further south overnight. After a well above normally warm day, temperatures tonight will only fall into the low to mid 60s across most locations. Temperatures tomorrow will stay in the the 70s in wake of the cold front. Elevated fire danger conditions will be possible as minimum relative humidity values will be in the upper teens to lower 20s across inland areas, and in the low to mid 30s along the immediate coast. North winds will relax overnight, and temperatures will fall into the low to mid 40s across most areas Wednesday night.
A warm front early this afternoon was located across Central Missouri roughly from Warsaw to Eminence. Cold front moves through the area during the overnight hours and this with increased cloud cover will drop temps down to more seasonable levels for Wednesday.
Highs the next couple days should trend toward average as a cooler airmass moves into the region behind the departing storm.
Temperatures will drop off into the lower to mid 30s by morning for the central valley with areas of frost expected. High pressure will build behind the low with light northerly winds for the valley and easterly winds in the Sierra Nevada that may become locally breezy.
A cold front will move through the area tonight, turning winds to the west, then northwest. Expect much cooler temperatures Wednesday, with highs 55 to 65, and gusty northwest winds will prevail.
A chance for snow late tonight into Wednesday with a gradual trend towards cooler temperatures. Guidance continues to trend just slightly further south with the track of the low, and with a sharp northern gradient expected, this has resulted in less snow forecast for northwest Wisconsin. As the low deepens, northerly flow will develop at low to mid levels resulting colder air being advected in from the north. Lows tonight in the mid to upper 20s - while there will be little in the way of radiational cooling, some cooler air will advect in as winds turn northerly. The low pressure center will move northeast into eastern Michigan by Thursday morning. Colder air will flow into the forecast region behind the low through the weekend.
Some wind expected to increase in the wake of the low this morning across the southwest and could lead to blowing and drifting snow as well.
1246 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 Should be a nice morning, then clouds will be increasing during the afternoon, and showers moving in from the west ahead of a cold front. Visibilities will be lowering as well as showers saturate the lower levels. Actual cold frontal passage will likely be just after this forecast period.
1241 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 A ridge of high pressure will move across the area Wednesday morning. A cold front will move through Thursday bringing a chance of showers, followed by seasonably chilly air over the weekend.
306 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 Low pressure to our east will gradually move away from the region today. A weak warm front will approach tonight followed by a cold front on Thursday.
Seasonable temperatures will return for the remainder of the week, with highs ranging from the lower 30s to middle 40s, with lows mainly in the 20s. The low clouds will hang out through Wednesday, in the MVFR range with west to northwest winds.
Updated to end winter weather highlights across the higher terrain. Quick burst of snow possible along the I-25 corridor Broad upper trough over the Rockies today, with numerous spokes of energy rotating eastward across the area. At the surface, cold front has pushed south through the plains, with shallow upslope flow developing along and east of the mountains. On Wednesday, best forcing for precip will shift east of the region, though with secondary upper trough overhead and rather steep lapse rates, suspect most mountains will regenerate some flurries and snow showers by afternoon, though any accums will be spotty and light.
Strong and breezy northwest winds will be felt across western Kansas tonight through tomorrow as high pressure builds into the area. Lows tonight look to range from the lower 20s across west central Kansas to upper 20s across south central Kansas. Northwest winds at the surface will continue until the end of the week as a ridge of high pressure extends from the Intermountain West to the Southern Plains. As the low pressure system continues to pull away from Kansas, aviation conditions will improve, and have already done so with respect to flight category.
After a slightly cool start to the morning, temperatures will warm up quickly this afternoon, with highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows tonight generally in the low to mid 60s.
Models are in good agreement with placing us in the warm sector tonight as a warm front lifts through the area. a cold front will be right on the heels of the warm front bringing at least a slight chance of rain mainly south of the Ohio River. Lows will fall below freezing for all of the area starting Wednesday night. This seasonable temperature pattern is expected to persist with daytime highs above freezing and lows below freezing.
304 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2017 Will get into more of a true warm sector regime early today as a cold front approaches from the west. A secondary cold front will be poised to slide southeast through the region tonight.
An upper level low lies over the central Rockies with an associated jet stretching from the southern Rockies into the central Plains. To its east, we see mostly zonal flow aloft of the local area with weak upper level ridging over the southeastern US. This pattern will shift eastward today, with the low over the Rockies lifting into the central Plains by this evening, developing our next cold front at the lower levels. Highs today will be in the low to mid 70s.
The back edge of the stronger radar returns is currently located roughly southeast of a line from Mobridge to Chadron with some areas of lighter, more localized light snow or flurries around the Black Hills area. The more widespread snow will gradually end from west to east this morning as the low pressure system continues to move off to the east. A broad upper level trough will remain across the eastern US late in the week, with a highly amplified ridge over the west coast.
324 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2017 Cold front has pushed east of the forecast area with noticeably cooler temps expected today along with gusty northwesterly winds. Overall weather pattern will feature strong ridging through the western U.
1239 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 Clouds linger under weak high pressure. Warm Wednesday before turning progressively colder mid and late week with passage of a cold front and lingering northwest flow. areas of drizzle /freezing drizzle or snow flurries high elevations/ will continue this evening along with low ceilings. Shower activity should subside as high pressure builds and waa occurs. Upper trough and surface cold front to affect the area Thursday, with temperatures initially falling, before becoming rather steady as the day progresses.
For today low will pass from west central IL into northeast IL dragging a cold front into the area bringing a decrease in temperatures for afternoon after early day highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s over most of the area and upper 40s to mid 50s east of I-57. Extensive cloud cover will move back over the area behind the cold front along with brisk WSW winds 15-20 mph gusting 25 to 30. Late afternoon to overnight an upper trough will swing across the area bringing chances for precipitation into the area spreading from NW to SE until early morning.
Rain showers will initially form over eastern portions of the area this afternoon ahead of the warm front, and then precipitation will increase from the northwest with the associated upper low overnight. By that time, cooler air will be in the area, so precipitation will be in the form of a rain/snow mixture and all snow by Thursday morning.
An upper ridge over the eastern states moves off into the western Atlantic as a positively tilted upper trof over the Plains spreads into the eastern states.
As of 2PM, a strong upper level low was tracking over portions of Nebraska, producing a frontogenesis band of snowfall along the NE/SD border. As this upper level low tracks eastward, there is slight chance for rain/snow along the KS/NE border through the overnight into Wednesday. Forecast soundings from the RAP and HRRR suggest the potential for a brief period of light freezing rain or drizzle. Later this evening and overnight a cold front will traverse the area.
236 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 Weak high pressure exits today. Cold front late this evening and tonight. Getting into the warm air advection in the low levels as evidenced by the retreating stratus from southwest to northeast. No major timing changes with the relatively narrow band of showers expected with the cold front after 21Z, and tailored the timing with the HRRR and RAP at the onset, which coincided nicely with the previous forecast. Upper trough and surface cold front to affect the area Thursday, with temperatures initially falling, before becoming rather steady as the day progresses.
Today we will see a cold front move through the region, this will bring a chance of rain to most of the Mid-South. The upper low slowly moves off to the north and east and the area is left on the back side of the trough for the rest of the week.
This partial lull will last through Wednesday morning then the HRRR is showing another weak trough moving through the area Wednesday afternoon with a minor uptick in areal coverage of snow showers. The last of this series of cold troughs will drop through the area Thursday, but this one will not bring as much moisture.
1246 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 Rain chances will increase late tonight into Wednesday morning across far northern Indiana and southern lower Michigan as a low pressure system and warm front approach. Bulk of overnight should be dry with increasing rain chances late tonight as modest low level jet ramps up downstream of Central Plains upper trough, and embedded short waves ripple across the southern Great Lakes. The rest of the forecast will be characterized by near to slightly below temperatures and periodic chances for lake effect/enhanced snow showers as a perturbed west-northeast flow regime takes hold within a developing Eastern US longwave trough.
Have included another half inch to inch of new snow to account for any precipitation that wraps around the departing low pressure system tonight. Low pressure will continue to move northeastward tonight and winds will increase. Elsewhere, a dry forecast is expected as high pressure starts to build into the region.
417 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 A low pressure area over the Gulf of Maine early today will move northeast into the Canadian maritimes later today. An upper trough will move east from the Great Lakes late tonight and Thursday, bringing a chance for rain and snow showers to the north country late tonight and Thursday.
Water vapor and RAP model 500 mb analysis showed plenty of dry air with an area of upper level divergence associated with a weak upper level trough positioned over NorCal overnight. A lack of a delta influenced breeze has kept temperatures overnight ranging between the low to mid 70s for much of the valley. with the northern end of the Sacramento valley in the lower 80s as of 3 am PDT. As a result, there are some slight chances for thunderstorms at the higher elevations mentioned in the forecast.
A mid and upper level trough will move slowly eastward today, lingering across eastern areas. Meanwhile, upper level heights will increase through tonight as an upper ridge builds eastward out of the southern plains. The lingering trough over eastern areas combined with abundant deep layer moisture will keep isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast mainly east of I-65. The building upper ridge will result in warmer temps with highs in the low to mid 90s. Lows tonight will range from the low 70s inland to upper 70s along the coast.
The center of an upper level area of high pressure will move across west central Texas today.
Will be watching an area of showers/thunder across northwest North Dakota as to whether or not it can hold together as it approaches the low level ridging. After a cool start with plenty of solar and warming column temperatures should be able to recover into the low/mid 70s.
With the center of the H700-500 upper level ridge expected to build E across N TX this morning and into E TX/N LA/extreme Srn Ar this afternoon. weak perturbations aloft should continue to drift atop the ridge across OK and into AR.
Lower confidence exists if the lower cloud deck can reach KDRT and have only placed a SCT020 in TAF for now. Weak subsidence inversions and dry air at midlevels under this high pressure will limit convection over most of the region today and tomorrow, but a weak sea breeze may help a few showers and thunderstorms sneak into our far southeastern counties in the Coastal Plains.
A mid-level wave moving through the central plains early Saturday will probably keep the heaviest rainfall in kansas, near and north of the warm front, but low chances for thunderstorms will remain for northern Oklahoma early Saturday. By Saturday evening, a weak front, along with an associated stronger mid-level short wave trough, is expected to enter northwest Oklahoma.