Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The upper level pattern is slow moving right now, with a nearly stationary upper level low pressure over the mid Atlantic states and low pressure over the Pacific NW where a quasi-rex block is in place. The low over the Pacific NW will move slowly northeast into southern Alberta and Saskatchewan over through Wednesday. An elongated ridge between the two low pressures will continue to get squeezed with heights holding steady or falling a bit. Another warm day is on tap for Wednesday, however, 850 mb temps fall a few degrees, to around 15C, as the low pressure over the mid- Atlantic states retrogrades to the NW.
322 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020 The ArkLaMiss will remain on the west side of a deep upper low centered over the Carolinas. Temperatures tonight will fall into the low to mid 60s as dry air and light winds allow heat to escape the surface layer. Wednesday will be only slightly warmer than today with highs only reaching the mid to upper 80s once again.
/Tonight through Tuesday/ Little change noted to the upper level synoptic flow field over the last 24 hours, highlighted by a large trough centered over the Pacific Northwest, with a downstream ridge running over the top of a nearly stationary southeastern US cutoff low. Only consequence locally is the potential for more widespread highs near or above 90 degrees as the thermal ridge noses in from the west.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night): High pressure continues across Texas and the Gulf of Mexico as a 500mb low pressure system spins across the Carolinas. Temperatures will gain a degree or two tomorrow on the highs today.
The southwesterly flow aloft and active pattern continues into Wednesday, with a slight relaxing of the pressure gradient in the west as a trough of low pressure approaches. Main sfc feature to start with will be cold front slicing through fcst area overnight Wed into Thu. The weekend for our region will feature an upper low north of the border likely to spin a couple of spokes/lobes through the forecast area.
325 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 High pressure will remain in place across the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley tonight, while an area of upper level low pressure affects portions of the Atlantic coast.
324 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020 The weather pattern is expected to remain fairly persistent through the next five days thanks to a cut-off upper low to the east of the region and an upper level ridge to the west. This lack of precipitation will allow for temperatures to climb into the low to mid 90s across most of the CWA each day. Model guidance indicates that this upper level pattern will begin to break down during the second half of this weekend as a trough progresses eastward across the Northern Plains. Winds will become lighter and somewhat variable through Wednesday as the high pressure builds over the region.
An upper low will rotate from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies today, before lifting into Saskatchewan on Wednesday. The low will stall over the Canadian prairies through the end of the week due to a blocking low over the eastern CONUS. Moisture in the southerly flow ahead of the low track will be somewhat cut off by the system to the east, but will modest boundary layer moisture already in place along with strong daytime heating and convergence along the boundary, could see some strong convection develop late in the afternoon near the North Dakota and Canadian borders. As the upper low settles over Saskatchewan, cooler air will spread across eastern Montana.
Atypical mid June weather pattern to continue in the short term with an upper level low drifting every so slowly north across the Carolinas. The period will be very similar to what occurred today with quite a bit of cloud cover overnight and a few showers mainly along the higher terrain on the North Carolina border. As the low drifts north, deeper moisture will rotate around the north side of the feature and extend across more of Southwest Virginia and Northeast Tennessee through the morning on Tuesday with some enhancement on the Cumberland Plateau during the afternoon hours. The airmass remains stable through most of the forecast period however, there is a slight chance for a thunderstorm over the Southern Cumberland Plateau region and across the higher terrain over Southeast Tennessee and Southwest North Carolina.
The higher storm coverage today aligns with the axis of deepest moisture and this corridor may spread slightly eastward tomorrow.
* None The Great Lakes are positioned beneath broad upper level ridging that will remain dominant through the remainder of this week before the western CONUS trough finally releases and slowly progresses eastward.
Cold front lays roughly along a line from Sheridan to Riverton to Evanston this afternoon. Think the High Wind Warning will continue to hit through 00Z.
218 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 High pressure dominates through the middle of the week with dry and quiet weather expected. Quiet weather still expected tonight through Wed night as a broad upper level ridge extends and amplifies somewhat over the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast. Conditions Wed will be slightly warmer than today with highs topping out in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
This morning, a spinning upper low over the Carolinas is sending a few clouds in our direction. Temperatures are gradually climbing into the 70s, and we are on our way to the low 80s today. Upper level low is still spinning along the SC/GA coast and will migrate northward.
More or less the same as today for Wednesday with maybe a 2-3 degrees of warming as heights rise behind departing upper low.
240 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Prevailing high pressure will bring tranquil and very warm conditions through the remainder of the week.
203 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 afternoon with weather dominated by the Middle Atlantic states upper low. Pop gradation from highest pops east to lowest pops west still looks good with the deepest moisture and lift still impacting Southwest Virginia and Northeast Tennessee with some orographic lifting all along the North Carolina border with convergence lifting along a trough over this area. With the upper low and much of its moisture and lift forecast to be on the other side of the Appalachian mountains, the aviation forecast will have extended periods of vfr category weather. As the low level flow turns increasingly northeasterly, some of the moist air on that side of the terrain will slide southwest into the Great Valley generating some mvfr ceilings around daybreak when this layer is at its coolest.
This morning, a spinning upper low over the Carolinas is sending a few clouds in our direction. Temperatures are gradually climbing into the 70s, and we are on our way to the low 80s today. Upper low located over SC this morning.
Very quiet weather will continue through this period as an upper level ridge remains over the region, slowly pushing east. With this comes the strong high pressure just to the east.
220 PM MDT Tue Jun 16 2020 The latest water vapor images show an upper low over the Pacific Northwest with southwest flow and considerable midlevel moisture over the CWA. At the surface, a trough/dryline extended south from a low pressure in far western ND. Later tonight a cold front will cross much of the CWA, reaching near south-central SD by 12z Wednesday. Most of the CWA will be notably cooler on Wednesday. The main focus for a few severe storms will be over south-central SD near the surface cold front, aided by an LLJ and isentropic lift.
1225 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020 As we remain sandwiched between a low pressure system off to our west and a high pressure system off to our east, warm and windy conditions remain across the area. As the low marches eastwards, the pressure gradient is expected to be at its strongest this afternoon and has thus prompted a wind advisory to be issued westward along a line from Brookings county to Charles Mix county.
219 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Prevailing high pressure will bring tranquil and very warm conditions through the remainder of the week.
232 PM MDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Unsettled conditions are expected for the next couple days as an upper low moves northeast through the area.
253 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Upper pattern essentially unchanged from this time yesterday, with the upper low over South Carolina. However, the lower portions of the Louisiana coastal parishes has seen enough of a sea breeze to set up an area of convergence near and south of a Port Sulphur to Thibodaux line. As noted yesterday, H925 temperatures are a couple degrees cooler than yesterday, so instead of 95-97 at several locations, we're in the lower 90s at 2 pm.
209 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Lots of sunshine and warmth the next few days as an upper level ridge resides over the region.
With the moisture focusing up against the Wind River range tonight, accumulation of 4 to 7 inches is expected for the higher elevations of the western side of the Winds River range, with a light dusting possible for areas like Pinedale (sorry y'all). temperatures will be significantly cooler, with higher elevations not getting out of the 40s, and central lower elevations only in the mid 60s.
Classic srn CO windy and dry pattern sets up by midday, with lee trough on the plains and deep mixing developing in the afternoon.
H5 trough with trailing short wave will move across southern Canada, and move frontal system across the plains on Wednesday.
/issued 223 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night): High pressure continues across Texas and the Gulf of Mexico as a 500mb low pressure system spins across the Carolinas. Temperatures will gain a degree or two tomorrow on the highs today.
702 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 High pressure extending across the eastern Great Lakes will maintain an abundance of dry air across Se Mi through the TAF period amidst light easterly sfc winds. * None Another day of ideal weather conditions is unfolding across SE Michigan thanks to high pressure that remains locked in place across the Great Lakes.
Low temperatures will remain mild for mid June ranging from the low 60s west to low 70s east. There is a slim chance for showers/thunderstorms a few hours before sunrise Wednesday morning in Logan and Gove counties where some mid level moisture and minimum elevated convective inhibition reside near the axis of the low level jet.
On Wednesday the heat will spread eastward, with temperatures and heat indices in the mid to upper 90s across Minnesota, but slightly cooler in Wisconsin. Wednesday will be similar as the warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front drifts eastward. This cold front will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday evening and overnight.
Near record low possible tonight as dry conditions aloft allow for lows in the lower to mid 60s. Weak north-south trough is noted over the inland northeast FL areas this evening where some enhanced cumulus is noted but should dissipate late evening and overnight. Low pressure continues to drift north along the Carolina coast with a dry northerly flow across se Georgia and ne Florida. Little change for Wednesday as low pressure moves into North Carolina.
614 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Southwest Missouri is sandwiched between two systems this afternoon, high pressure centered over the northeastern U. and a trough of low pressure over the Great Plains. Much of the eastern half of the area from around Lebanon to Vichy and southeast still has drier dew point air in the mid 50s parked in place due to a more east-southeast flow which is more influenced by the high. Lows tonight should be similar to lows this morning, perhaps a few degrees warmer across the eastern Ozarks where the wind will be turning more to the south-southeast later tonight. Higher humidity and warmer temperatures will continue to build slowly into central and south central Missouri on Wednesday, as the Northeast high continues to drift eastward away from our area.
601 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 High pressure will continue to provide dry and quiet weather through at least Wednesday night.
High pressure will maintain tranquil boating conditions over the Gulf waters through the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend with light east southeast winds and slight seas with an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast each afternoon.
Not much expected to happen along the front as the best ascent remains well to the north in the parent trough. However some isolated showers/storms and cooler temperatures will bring some relief behind the front. The cold front will drop through SE. Highs up north should be some 10 degrees cooler tomorrow.
Broad upper low currently centered over Oregon will shift eastward through today. Cold front is expected to stall over southern Nye - northwest Clark County, where breezy to gusty north winds are expected to remain mainly across Nye, Esmeralda, and Inyo counties.
708 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Prevailing high pressure will bring tranquil and very warm conditions through the remainder of the week.
High pressure will try to build down into the forecast area from the northeast and with that some drier air on Wednesday. /issued 324 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020/ The weather pattern is expected to remain fairly persistent through the next five days thanks to a cut-off upper low to the east of the region and an upper level ridge to the west. This lack of precipitation will allow for temperatures to climb into the low to mid 90s across most of the CWA each day. Model guidance indicates that this upper level pattern will begin to break down during the second half of this weekend as a trough progresses eastward across the Northern Plains. Winds will become lighter and somewhat variable through Wednesday as the high pressure builds over the region.
A more vigorous vorticity lobe, associated with some very heavy showers and storms over portions of eastern NC this evening, will pivot around the upper level low tonight reaching eastern KY around or shortly after sunrise. An upper level low continues to spin across the Carolinas this afternoon, with showers continuing to pivot westward into Virginia and West Virginia. We could see temperatures a degree or two warmer on Wednesday for afternoon highs as the boundary layer warms very slightly. The beginning of the extended will feature showers and a few storms that will be induced by an area of cutoff low pressure meandering over the southern Appalachians and Carolina Piedmont.
The cold front has moved through that area with northwest winds ushering in much higher relative humidity. The latest water vapor images show an upper low over the Pacific Northwest with southwest flow and considerable midlevel moisture over the CWA. At the surface, a trough/dryline extended south from a low pressure in far western ND. Later tonight a cold front will cross much of the CWA, reaching near south-central SD by 12z Wednesday. Most of the CWA will be notably cooler on Wednesday. The main focus for a few severe storms will be over south-central SD near the surface cold front, aided by an LLJ and isentropic lift.
/issued 338 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020/ Latest surface observations indicate afternoon temperatures in the lower 80s today with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. Not much change to the synoptic pattern as the cut off low pressure drifts over the Mid-Atlantic states while another low builds across the pacific northwest through much of the work week. High pressure will build over much of the area, funneling dry and seasonably warm air into the area.
The upper ridge will remain over the region into Thu with lgt sly winds. Very quiet weather will continue through this period as an upper level ridge remains over the region, slowly pushing east. With this comes the strong high pressure just to the east.
733 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 High pressure will remain in place across the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley tonight, while an area of upper level low pressure affects portions of the Atlantic coast.
849 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020 The pesky upper low affecting the eastern CONUS continues to spin over the Carolinas this evening with a ribbon of dry air wrapping around its periphery. While overnight lows should be a few degrees warmer than last night, some areas will likely reach the upper 50s by sunrise. /issued 338 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020/ Latest surface observations indicate afternoon temperatures in the lower 80s today with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. Not much change to the synoptic pattern as the cut off low pressure drifts over the Mid-Atlantic states while another low builds across the pacific northwest through much of the work week. High pressure will build over much of the area, funneling dry and seasonably warm air into the area.
1021 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Prevailing high pressure will bring tranquil and very warm conditions through the remainder of the week.
529 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 An upper level low continues to spin across the Carolinas this afternoon, with showers continuing to pivot westward into Virginia and West Virginia. We could see temperatures a degree or two warmer on Wednesday for afternoon highs as the boundary layer warms very slightly. The beginning of the extended will feature showers and a few storms that will be induced by an area of cutoff low pressure meandering over the southern Appalachians and Carolina Piedmont.
924 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 High pressure will remain in place across the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley tonight, while an area of upper level low pressure affects portions of the Atlantic coast.
Gusty southwest to west winds at lower elevations will also diminish this evening, but gusty winds will continue tonight along ridgetops.
An upper level low continues to spin across the Carolinas this afternoon, with showers continuing to pivot westward into Virginia and West Virginia. We could see temperatures a degree or two warmer on Wednesday for afternoon highs as the boundary layer warms very slightly. The beginning of the extended will feature showers and a few storms that will be induced by an area of cutoff low pressure meandering over the southern Appalachians and Carolina Piedmont.
449 PM MDT Tue Jun 16 2020 The latest water vapor images show an upper low over the Pacific Northwest with southwest flow and considerable midlevel moisture over the CWA. At the surface, a trough/dryline extended south from a low pressure in far western ND. Later tonight a cold front will cross much of the CWA, reaching near south-central SD by 12z Wednesday. Most of the CWA will be notably cooler on Wednesday. The main focus for a few severe storms will be over south-central SD near the surface cold front, aided by an LLJ and isentropic lift.
618 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Lots of sunshine and warmth the next few days as an upper level ridge resides over the region.
1038 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 High pressure will continue to provide dry and quiet weather through at least Wednesday night.
1025 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Currently - An Unusual weather pattern this evening with a weak low near the Carolina coast and weak ridging across the northern Gulf of Mexico and Florida. Short Term Update - The broad low near the Carolina coast will meander northward through the overnight period allowing the narrow ridge across our area to also lift northward. Consequently, a broad trough aligned in the northwestern Caribbean Sea will expand northward. Troughing in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and a narrow ridge across Florida has resulted in moderate east breezes this evening. The trough will expand northward through the overnight period allowing winds to trend downwards.
707 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: Very few clouds and winds varying from north/northeasterly to easterly for the most part as weak high pressure remains the dominant feature across the southeast. The ArkLaMiss will remain on the west side of a deep upper low centered over the Carolinas. Temperatures tonight will fall into the low to mid 60s as dry air and light winds allow heat to escape the surface layer. Wednesday will be only slightly warmer than today with highs only reaching the mid to upper 80s once again.
Another dry overnight with "cooler" temps, when compared to the average for mid June. A steady increase of moisture into the area will begin as the upper low over the Carolinas shifts north and the Atlantic ridge builds back across the Florida peninsula.
929 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Another exceptionally quiet northern Michigan night as deep layer high pressure remains in complete control. Large area of high pressure remains resulting in clear blue skies across much of this entire region. with pronounced ridging and dry air thru the column remaining overhead. Low temps tonight will cool into the low to mid 50s. High Impact Weather Potential: None Synopsis/Forecast: Troughing across the N Rockies will pivot into S Canada through midweek as a cut-off upper-level low continues to sit over the Carolinas.
239 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020 A large upper ridge was located over the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes leading to clear skies and quiet weather. Very warm today as highs reach the mid to upper 80s under the stubborn upper-level ridge that has brought dry weather since late last week. Mild conditions are forecast tonight with temps falling into the lower 60s. Overnight, a cold front responsible for the increasing clouds will be slowly pushing east across Iowa, which will likely have showers and storms ongoing along it as it does.
North winds will briefly become gusty this morning as far south as Las Vegas following the passage of a cold front. Temperatures will be cooler than normal today and Thursday. Trough positioned across the Great Basin this morning with all the dynamics located across Idaho, northern Nevada and northern Utah. Cold front associated with trough is making slow, but steady progress south through Inyo County and south central Nevada. All available hi-res guidance suggests cold front will make it to Las Vegas between 6-8 am. The north/south surface pressure gradient intensifies overnight into Thursday morning for the funneling of localized stronger north winds down the lower Colorado River Valley.
but little in the way to inhibit temps in the overnight from dropping into the low to mid 60s. Prior discussion below: The ArkLaMiss will remain on the west side of a deep upper low centered over the Carolinas. Temperatures tonight will fall into the low to mid 60s as dry air and light winds allow heat to escape the surface layer. Wednesday will be only slightly warmer than today with highs only reaching the mid to upper 80s once again.
231 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020 Cut-off low over the Mid-Atlantic continues to funnel dry, seasonably warm air over the forecast area from the northeast. The cut-off low will wobble to west on Thursday, close enough to trigger isolated thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon over the Kentucky Pennyrile and southwest Indiana.
323 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020 High pressure will continue to provide dry and quiet weather through Thursday morning. A very persistent closed low will spin over the Carolinas today before drifting a little northwest towards West Virginia by late tonight. Strong high pressure surface and aloft will remain draped to the north and west of the closed low, maintaining dry weather through tonight. A modest amount of mid/high clouds will begin to spread northward into the region later tonight as the closed low begins to move northwest, and a spoke of vorticity rotates into the eastern Great Lakes. Highs will reach the low to mid 80s at lower elevations, and upper 70s to around 80 on the hills. Light northeast winds will keep the south shore of Lake Ontario a little cooler.
and Thursday A large high pressure system over the eastern Great Lakes region with a ridge extending all the way west to the western Great Lakes will continue to slowly move east towards New England today, then over the Atlantic by Thursday. This expansive high pressure system will keep the region dry through Thursday as southerly winds continue to bring increasing heat and humidity to northeast Wisconsin as dew points rise into the middle to upper 50s with some 60 degree readings by Thursday. Highs today will generally be in the lower to middle 80s, with highs in the 70s near Lake Michigan.