Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
333 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019 Still under the influence of high pressure, clear skies were noted across the entire area this afternoon. Saturday morning, the cold front will continue to make slow progress south as it continues to be the focus for thunderstorms and heavy rain through the weekend.
850 mb winds increase to 45-50 kts combining with around 30 (C) 850 temps should keep overnight lows around the lower to mid 70s. Saturday should be our last day of 100 degree weather in southwest Kansas for a while as a strong cold front will be entering the northwest part of the state through the mid afternoon. Thunderstorms will develop most likely post frontal as the cold front moves through western Kansas during the evening. A strong mid- summer cold front will be advancing south late at night, bringing with it much cooler air.
While dewpoints still remain high in the low 70s to near 80, highest heat index values in the upper 90s will continue to fall into the upper 80s by late evening. There remains a chance for thunderstorm development after midnight across northern Nebraska behind a southward advancing cold front. Otherwise, guidance hits at possibility for some convection along and near the trough axis, however, thinking inhibition will be difficult to overcome. Tomorrow, highs will be about 20 degrees cooler tomorrow compared to today. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will lie from northern IL to western KS to southeast CO.
/issued 244 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019/ (Tonight and Saturday) Hot, dry, and breezy conditions will continue across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours as an upper level ridge dominates the weather.
Cold front is in the process of moving into the northern Red River Valley, with drier air mass advecting in with northwest BL flow. Regarding temperatures: Cooler air mass will support cooler temps Saturday (highs near 80), and lows tonight and saturday below 60.
The above normal temperatures today in the upper 90s and 100s will drop 25-30 degrees Saturday as a cold front and clouds shift south. A dampened trough axis is analyzed across the northern Rockies along with a surface front situated east to west across central WY into Nebraska. With amount of cloud cover over the High Plains, it may be difficult for afternoon thunderstorms to develop with only more of the stratus light rain and mist being more likely. However, farther west where greater clearing and insolation will be, some thunderstorm generation should occur over the high terrain. As storms move into the cooler and more stable High Plains, they should struggle to maintain their strength.
633 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019 The upper level ridge of high pressure will remain in place across the region through Saturday while a cold front settles southward across the Northern and into the Central Plains states. Maintained low pops across a sliver of our central KS counties on Saturday evening as a cold front approaches late in the period.
High pressure in the mid-levels now centered along an axis extending from northern Baja California to across central Oklahoma will gradually shift northward through the weekend.
1035 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019 Mean low-level ridging stretches west across Florida. If this feature were to survive its trek around the southwestern flank of the ridge, then it will push through Saturday afternoon.
00Z JAX RAOB indicated drier mid/upper level airmass edging across the area from the east under the 1000-500 mb Bermuda Ridge axis with precipitable water (PWAT) content dropping to 1. A lingering band of stratiform impacting SE Marion county is expected to drift NNW under the mean ridge through midnight, and continued to advertise a low chance of showers or a tstorm across western Marion county where surface CAPE was still around 1500-2000 J/kg. Low temperatures will range from the low/mid 70s inland to upper 70s toward the St.
High pressure and warm temperatures aloft will limit thunderstorm development through Saturday with temperatures remaining a couple of degrees warmer than normal.
Moisture will begin to increase from east to west Saturday with the approach of an inverted trough/easterly wave, and this will bring a slight increase in SHRA coverage Saturday. /issued 322 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019/ Fairly typical Summer day across the region today with temperatures in the low to mid 90s along with some scattered thunderstorms popping up, especially around the Atchafalaya Basin and into Lower Acadiana. Surface observations show high pressure over the SE CONUS leading to continued southerly flow over SE TX and S LA.
Low temperatures in the very humid airmass still appear to be on track in the lower and middle 70s. Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 91 74 89 / 30 60 40 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 74 92 72 88 / 20 40 30 50 Oak Ridge, TN 74 92 73 88 / 20 30 30 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 92 70 87 / 20 20 30 60.
724 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019 High pressure surface and aloft will persist over the region through Saturday with broad southeast boundary layer flow.
The thermal trough will persist into Saturday bringing warmer temperatures to the southern Oregon coastline.
The excessive Heat Warning will remain in effect as very hot and humid conditions continue into the weekend as the upper ridge remains in place.
Cooler temperatures and slightly less humidity is expected Saturday. The high dew points combined with temperatures in the low to mid 90s have push heat index values into the 105 to 110 degree range.
625 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019 Still under the influence of high pressure, clear skies were noted across the entire area this afternoon. Saturday morning, the cold front will continue to make slow progress south as it continues to be the focus for thunderstorms and heavy rain through the weekend.
330 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019 Today and tonight: Besides the broad ridge over much of the US, a mid-level disturbance traveling westward along the northern Gulf Coast will be the main factor in today's forecast. The increased moisture over the area and PWs above 2 inches along with the weak upper troughing will contribute to the increased coverage in today's showers and storms. The western half of the area will see highs rise into the lower 90s. Lows will fall into the low to mid 70s.
A cold front to the north of the area will allow for the winds to continue from the south. On Saturday, the transition to cooler temperatures will begin. The cold front will move into the area during the morning and should be most of the way through the forecast area by early afternoon. The temperatures to the south of the front will continue to be quite warm and the humidity will continue to bring heat index values to around 100 degrees along the Kansas/Nebraska state line, and to the south, even warmer. Temperatures will be significantly cooler for Sunday.
The air mass that settles in behind the wave will be characterized by weak surface flow and slightly cooler temperatures. An elongated west-to-east oriented 500 mb trough with strong curvature vorticity is forecast to sag down from Canada Saturday afternoon. Some CAMs suggest that this trough may produce isolated afternoon showers or weak thunderstorms across far north central North Dakota. This will promote warmer temperatures, with highs generally in the 80s. The position of the upper ridge places the Northern Plains under northwest flow aloft. Otherwise broad region of weak high pressure will maintain VFR conditions dry weather after 18z.
/issued 309 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019/ The ridge will camp out for one more day before starting to slide westward.
326 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019 Broad mid level ridging will remain spread out across the southern US through the weekend, marked by a weak inverted trough sliding west across the central Gulf Coast.
A welcomed change is on tap for the beginning of next work week with cooler temperatures and increased rain chances expected. We will remain under a broad upper ridge through Saturday with a fairly strong mid-level thermal ridge anchored near the region. Sunday, the upper ridge will split with the western center amplifying over the western ConUS. In response, the mid-level thermal ridge will begin to shift west lending to temperatures being a few degrees cooler Sunday.
1130 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019 The upper level ridge of high pressure will remain in place across the region through Saturday while a cold front settles southward across the Northern and into the Central Plains states. Maintained low pops across a sliver of our central KS counties on Saturday evening as a cold front approaches late in the period. A stable post-frontal regime will be ushered in for the beginning of the week with highs only reaching the low 80s.
325 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - One more day of excessive heat - More storms possible today, possibly severe - Cooler weather beginning Sunday. A cold front will move south today and put an end to the oppressive heat, but also generate more storms. The threat for storms will end tonight as the cold front moves through. Cooler and much drier air will then begin to move over the state.
256 AM MDT Sat Jul 20 2019 Synoptic Setup: To the south hot high pressure lies bottled up over the Four Corners. North of this a series of troughs and ridges of relatively cooler air run from the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia through northern Montana and the Canadian Prairies. Today through tonight: A dip in the flow will briefly bring cooler conditions and an isolated chance for showers across the far northern and southern zones. Meanwhile, the the hot air to the south will bulge northward over Nevada into Idaho and place northeast Montana under northwest flow with an increasing ridge influence.
Models still noting a weak back-door cold front overnight tonight, which will finally knock down the gusty westerly winds, bringing weak north winds for the day Saturday. Temperatures will remain slightly cooler on Sunday with only isolated chances of convection, most likely over Johnson County if anywhere.
Surface cold front moving south over northeast Wy and SD currently and will pass across the CWA this morning bringing an end to the hot temperatures of the last few days.
233 AM MDT Sat Jul 20 2019 Water vapor continues to show west to east oriented trof along the Canadian border. The main upper low associated with trof along the Canadian border is expected to move slowly east across far northern MT tonight and far northern ND on Sunday.
A trough will approach from the west tomorrow. Upper level trough over WA/BC border will move into the forecast area by 00Z Mon. West of the upper trough an upper level ridge builds over the High Plains and shifts a little east for the rest of this period. Some models indicate a short wave moves down the east side of the ridge for Mon. Long wave troughs over the western and eastern parts of North America fill during the period. Long wave ridge over the Rockies also flattens. Upper ridge remains over the Desert Southwest. Short wave trough is forecast to move over the area Fri with precip to precede short wave Thu night.
Tonight, the remnants of the h500 trough will move into the region. Cooler and dryer air will be felt today with highs in the mid 70s north and upper 70s to around 80 south.
Mainly VFR through the taf cycle under high pressure.
305 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019 Hot and humid weather will continue across the area for another day as high pressure remains over the southeast US bringing warm/moist southerly winds up into central IL. Temps should be little warmer than yesterday with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s again.
The air mass that settles in behind the wave will be characterized by weak surface flow and slightly cooler temperatures. An elongated west-to-east oriented 500 mb trough with strong curvature vorticity is forecast to sag down from Canada Saturday afternoon. Some CAMs suggest that this trough may produce isolated afternoon showers or weak thunderstorms across far north central North Dakota. This will promote warmer temperatures, with highs generally in the 80s. The position of the upper ridge places the Northern Plains under northwest flow aloft.
Cooler temperatures and slightly less humidity is expected Saturday.
While dewpoints still remain high in the low 70s to near 80, highest heat index values in the upper 90s will continue to fall into the upper 80s by late evening. There remains a chance for thunderstorm development after midnight across northern Nebraska behind a southward advancing cold front. Otherwise, guidance hits at possibility for some convection along and near the trough axis, however, thinking inhibition will be difficult to overcome. Tomorrow, highs will be about 20 degrees cooler tomorrow compared to today. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will lie from northern IL to western KS to southeast CO. Meanwhile, cooler air will continue to filter in Sunday with highs in the 70s area-wide, another 5-10 degrees cooler across southwest and south central NEB compared to Saturday. Of which, Sunday highs will be about 10-15 degrees cooler than seasonable values.
The best chance for a heat advisory will be for areas along and west of the Mississippi River, where the ridge will remain strongest. An upper level low, currently located over the Alabama, will continue to drift eastward into our area tomorrow. Expect highs around 90, with heat indices in the lower 100s. The ridge of high pressure will continue to retrograde on Sunday.
Tonight Through Sunday Latest surface obs show another hot day across the Natural State, with temperatures in the lower to mid 90s. On Saturday and Sunday, expect the flow aloft to become more northeasterly/easterly as high pressure over the area pushes westward and builds over the Rockies. While overall dry weather is anticipated, cannot rule out a stray thunderstorm across the east/southeast region of the CWA as impulses along the high's prefer float into Arkansas from the east.
1000 PM PDT Fri Jul 19 2019 Weak low pressure continuing off the west coast remains the dominant weather feature as the monsoonal high pressure in the interior remains well east of Southern California. This has kept temperatures moderated and the trough has also kept the mountains and deserts dry. Little change and seasonable conditions are expected to prevail over the next couple of days as weak low pressure off the west coast continues the onshore flow into Southern California.
259 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019 The heat will remain the story today, but welcome changes (for most) are on the horizon in the form of an elusive summertime cold front.
Cooler air begins to settle in tonight, with lows in the low 60s. Looks like a fairly mild couple of days, thanks to an upper trough over eastern Canada and zonal flow across the CONUS.
1128 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019 Still under the influence of high pressure, clear skies were noted across the entire area this afternoon.
/issued 724 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019/ High pressure surface and aloft will persist over the region through Saturday with broad southeast boundary layer flow.
The upper level ridge starts to break down some tonight which will allow a short wave to move east from the Rockies onto the central Plains.
High pressure aloft wl rmn in control over the region today.
In some cases, highs vary by as much as 10-15 degrees, though the likely cloud cover and the possibility of showers tends to favor a cooler solution. That being said, we generally trended toward the ECS guidance which takes a middle of the road approach, yielding highs ranging from the lower 70s north, to the lower 80s south. The models tend to develop a cluster of strong convection over the High Plains with the activity eventually spreading northeast into southwest Neb.
Cold front is in the process of moving into the northern Red River Valley, with drier air mass advecting in with northwest BL flow. Regarding temperatures: Cooler air mass will support cooler temps Saturday (highs near 80), and lows tonight and saturday below 60. Sunday also looks to be a cooler day with highs in the low to mid 70s as cooler air is advected from the north.
252 AM MDT Sat Jul 20 2019 Below normal temperatures are expected as a low pressure system moves across the region today.
The forecast also remains on track for a heat wave to begin in southwestern Idaho and southeastern Oregon on Sunday as an upper level ridge amplifies over the area.
648 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019 Hot and humid weather will continue across the area for another day as high pressure remains over the southeast US bringing warm/moist southerly winds up into central IL. Temps should be little warmer than yesterday with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s again.
405 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019 Persistence rules, at least for today, and perhaps Sunday, as the upper-lvl ridge remains anchored in place across the srn CONUS and beyond. Sfc flow is not as strong as 24 hrs ago, and temps are a few degrees cooler, and no warm low records look to be tied/set this morning. Convection will remain isolated for the next couple of days, and confined to the higher terrain in upslope flow. Over the next couple of days, a horizontal trough along the U. /Canadian border is forecast to move east and the dig SE into the MS Valley by 12Z Mon, bifurcating the ridge and centering the western half over the Four Corners.
445 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019 Early morning sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the sern CONUS this morning, providing a continued moist low- level flow over the wrn Gulf region. Water vapor imagery showed a west-east oriented ridge centered over the OH/TN Valleys while an inverted trof was noted over the nern Gulf moving wwd under the ridge. The inverted trof to our east is progged to continue sliding slowly wwd through the weekend and, combined with increasing moisture (forecast soundings indicate PWAT values steadily increasing to around 2.
Models indicate high pressure will remain the dominate feature.
747 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019 Aviation - One more day of excessive heat - More storms possible today, possibly severe - Cooler weather beginning Sunday. A cold front will move south today and put an end to the oppressive heat, but also generate more storms. The threat for storms will end tonight as the cold front moves through. Cooler and much drier air will then begin to move over the state.
Weak high pressure builds for Sunday which should keep the area dry though zonal flow continues in the upper levels which will bring a short wave in by Sunday evening which will enhance shower activity especially in the western portions of the CWA.
With high pressure in the mid and upper levels remaining the dominant weather feature through the upcoming weekend, expect a continued dry and hot forecast across south central Texas.
908 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019 Broad high pressure south of Bermuda continues to ridge west over the Florida peninsula producing light east-southeast winds this morning. Daytime high temps will reach the low to mid 90's with heat indices between 100-103 degrees. High pressure continues to ridge over the area producing pleasant boating conditions over the coastal waters.
This combined with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s will produce heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s. Xsect and point soundings indicate the best ascent located across southern portions of the area this afternoon and the forecast reflects this with highest PoPs expected across the southern and central valley with activity expected across the higher terrain as well. Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 74 88 73 / 70 40 60 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 73 87 72 / 50 30 50 40 Oak Ridge, TN 93 74 86 72 / 50 30 50 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 92 71 87 69 / 20 30 50 40.
/issued 259 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019/ The heat will remain the story today, but welcome changes (for most) are on the horizon in the form of an elusive summertime cold front.
/10/ Today and tonight: Besides the broad ridge over much of the US, a mid-level disturbance traveling westward along the northern Gulf Coast will be the main factor in today's forecast. The increased moisture over the area and PWs above 2 inches along with the weak upper troughing will contribute to the increased coverage in today's showers and storms. The western half of the area will see highs rise into the lower 90s. Lows will fall into the low to mid 70s.
The Key West morning sounding showed a typical conditionally unstable boundary layer with near normal precipitable water and MLCape values above normal at almost 3000 j/kg (mixing the lowest 50mb). There is a slight chance of cloud lines later in the day along the lower Keys as the islands heat and the winds diminish. This could lead to some late afternoon showers along the lower Keys, but waterspout chances remain low.
Storms will move out of the area later today, with slightly cooler and drier air taking over.
/issued 405 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019/ Persistence rules, at least for today, and perhaps Sunday, as the upper-lvl ridge remains anchored in place across the srn CONUS and beyond. Sfc flow is not as strong as 24 hrs ago, and temps are a few degrees cooler, and no warm low records look to be tied/set this morning. Convection will remain isolated for the next couple of days, and confined to the higher terrain in upslope flow. Over the next couple of days, a horizontal trough along the U. /Canadian border is forecast to move east and the dig SE into the MS Valley by 12Z Mon, bifurcating the ridge and centering the western half over the Four Corners.
/issued 326 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019/ Broad mid level ridging will remain spread out across the southern US through the weekend, marked by a weak inverted trough sliding west across the central Gulf Coast.
Below normal temperatures are expected as a low pressure system moves across the region today.
Today will be the last day of cooler than average weather across the forecast area as the weak trough that has been cooling us off will be replaced by a building ridge of high pressure to our east.
507 AM MDT Sat Jul 20 2019 Water vapor continues to show west to east oriented trof along the Canadian border. The main upper low associated with trof along the Canadian border is expected to move slowly east across far northern MT tonight and far northern ND on Sunday.
With much sunshine today updated the highs using the 90th percentile for temperatures on the ECM guidance, which raised temperatures into the lower 80s south to upper 70s north for this afternoon. Tonight, the remnants of the h500 trough will move into the region. Cooler and dryer air will be felt today with highs in the mid 70s north and upper 70s to around 80 south.
Atlantic high pressure will maintain presence across North Central FL. Temps in the low to mid 90s will lead to heat indices in the 101-105 range during peak afternoon heating. Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s, upper 70s for some coastal sites. Good boating conditions prevail with ridge axis anchored across the central to northern waters.
A cold front will push south across the TAF sites early Sunday morning bringing north to northeast winds at 13 to 20 knots with higher gusts. The upper level ridge starts to break down some tonight which will allow a short wave to move east from the Rockies onto the central Plains.
The ridge of high pressure will become the dominant feature over the Northern Rockies for the first part of the work week.
319 AM PDT Sat Jul 20 2019 Today will be the last of the cooler days for some time as high pressure expands over the southwest.
Bermuda high pressure located to our east is allowing southerly low level flow just above the surface over NE FL to veer to the NE over SE GA. With continued sunshine and lack of high clouds high temperatures should reach the low to mid 90s in inland NE FL and SE GA locations with coastal locations topping out near 90 degrees just before convection develops early this afternoon. The coastal waters will remain situated between the Bermuda high pressure center parked to our east while a weak surface tough moves slowly well to our north over the mid atlantic region.