Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WV imagery this afternoon showing large scale pattern consisting of a deep trough extending into the northern Rockies associated with a deep upper low centered over central Canada. Meanwhile a cold front continues to push southward through the central Plains. This in part to an upper level high pressure ridge building into the central CONUS. There are some hints that the low clouds could scatter out for a while tonight. Then as drier air in the low levels works in from the north/northwest on Saturday, we should trend toward VFR.
500 mb ridging will persist over the western and central Gulf Coast throughout the upcoming 24 hours. /issued 236 PM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): 500mb ridge across the south-central and southeast United States will continue to provide subsidence across south Texas tonight through Sat night.
00Z upper air analysis places an upper level ridge axis over the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening. /issued 247 PM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021/ A broad ridge remains in control of the Southern Plains and Lower MS Valley this afternoon. This pattern will hold for another 24 hours before the ridge retreats to the west as a relatively strong September trough digs over the eastern CONUS.
Temperatures are currently in the low to mid 80s this afternoon and expect highs will be just a couple of degree warmer. The upper level patter features a ridge centered to the west across the ArkLaTex. Broad ridging extends across a good portion of the central and eastern CONUS. At the surface, an elongated area of high pressure extends from the Great Lakes southwards into the southern Appalachians. With the ridge, there is a strong subsidence inversion and do not expect any vertical development with the cu. Overnight lows will drop down into the low to mid 60s tonight under mostly clear skies.
948 PM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021 We're seeing some passing high clouds over the area this evening as a dry inverted trough moves across the area. Temperatures are still expected to drop into the low-to-mid 60s by Saturday morning.
/issued 247 PM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021/ A broad ridge remains in control of the Southern Plains and Lower MS Valley this afternoon. This pattern will hold for another 24 hours before the ridge retreats to the west as a relatively strong September trough digs over the eastern CONUS.
941 PM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 Canadian high pressure will build southeast into Pennsylvania through tonight, then pass off the Mid Atlantic coast on Saturday.
/issued 242 PM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021/ We are in the midst of another relatively hot and humid early September afternoon as West Texas resides beneath the western periphery of a broad subtropical ridge. The western extension of the upper ridge is expanding ever so slightly, causing a thinning plume of monsoon moisture to shift northwestward. Better rain/storm chances will return Saturday afternoon and beyond as a closed low sinking south-southeast from Manitoba into Ontario bends the monsoon moisture back southward while also giving a cold front to our north a nudge southward. The aforementioned convective activity should help to reinforce the cold front Saturday night. This should help to bring the cold front farther south during the night and prolong the threat for shower and thunderstorm activity.
An upper ridge will develop and expand across the Great Basin over the weekend, resulting in continued dry conditions and a warming trend. The westerly flow around the ridge will import smoke into the area which will increase through the weekend.
721 PM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021 For the 04/00Z TAF period, isolated convection from this afternoon has largely diminished as an upper-level ridge of high pressure remains anchored across our airspace. /Tonight through Saturday Night/ Upper-level ridge across the region to maintain dry conditions across the region through Saturday. Overnight low temperatures forecast to fall into the low to mid 70s. Subsidence associated with the upper-ridge to force Saturday high temperatures again into the mid 90s areawide with heat index values just shy of advisory criteria of around 105 degrees. Otherwise, overnight low temperatures to range from the low to mid 70s across the ArkLaTex.
850 PM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 From a synoptic perspective, the huge trough along the eastern seaboard has pushed the axis of the Bermuda High southward to its current position sitting over the Florida Keys and coastal waters. While this is normally a favorable regime for cloudline and waterspout development, resident dry air in the lowest 300mb has stifled cloud line development through the day. The few cloud lines that tried to develop along the Lower Keys never really made it past the incipient stage before dissolving. Only a few isolated showers are expected over the Keys and nearshore waters, with a little more shower coverage in the Gulf waters well north of the Lower Keys, and possibly an isolated shower in Florida Bay.
1046 PM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 Canadian high pressure will build southeast into Pennsylvania through tonight, then pass off the Mid Atlantic coast on Saturday.
A cold front will drop south towards the state Sat afternoon.
510 PM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 Mainly dry and cooler weather will persist through Saturday. as high pressure will work across the Great Lakes.
942 PM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 Canadian high pressure will build southeast into Pennsylvania through tonight, then pass off the Mid Atlantic coast on Saturday.
938 PM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 High pressure will and drier conditions will continue across the CWA tonight. /Issued 340 PM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021/ An upper ridge centered over the lower MS River Valley will dominate the forecast area through the short term.
701 PM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021 A damp and foggy fall night looms ahead, with clearing skies and warmer temperatures for Saturday. A decaying low pressure system centered over western Iowa will continue to spin down this evening with easterly flow keeping low level moisture steadfast over southern Minnesota. A low stratocumulus deck lingers through the morning and should mix out in the afternoon, although at least partly cloudy skies will be common on the backside of the main cloud shield as convective temperatures are quickly reached with the onset of solar insolation within a regime of cooler temps/lower heights aloft.
/Issued 340 PM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021/ An upper ridge centered over the lower MS River Valley will dominate the forecast area through the short term.
611 PM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021 The lower clouds have been persistent today especially in the eastern portion of the forecast area. Some higher clouds are moving into the west and overtaking the lower clouds and some portions of the area are still not seeing the sun even if the lower clouds are breaking up. Most of the action will be closer to the cold front that moved through the area last night. Temperatures for tonight and tomorrow will continue to be a little cooler than normal with lows around 60 and highs in the mid to upper 70s.
959 PM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021 Upper ridge in place will result in dry conditions overnight with just some cirrus clouds transitioning SW across the region in the clockwise flow around the ridge axis. /issued 721 PM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021/ For the 04/00Z TAF period, isolated convection from this afternoon has largely diminished as an upper-level ridge of high pressure remains anchored across our airspace. /Tonight through Saturday Night/ Upper-level ridge across the region to maintain dry conditions across the region through Saturday. Overnight low temperatures forecast to fall into the low to mid 70s. Subsidence associated with the upper-ridge to force Saturday high temperatures again into the mid 90s areawide with heat index values just shy of advisory criteria of around 105 degrees. Otherwise, overnight low temperatures to range from the low to mid 70s across the ArkLaTex.
742 PM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 High pressure extending across the area will move off to the east tonight.
445 AM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021 Canadian high pressure over the region will pass off the Mid Atlantic coast on Saturday. A warm front will bring showers and a chance for a thunderstorm on Sunday.
However light winds become westerly and push the highest coverage inland.
316 AM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021 High pressure to the north will bring another sunny and comfortable day today.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): 500 mb high pressure centered over Louisiana will remain the dominant force over the BRO CWFA during the period. Limited cloud cover, in addition to the presence of the mid-level ridge, will ensure well above normal temperatures for this time of year.
A broad upper ridge extended across the Desert Southwest through the Gulf Coast Region. A closed low was located over northern Manitoba, Canada. By Sunday, highs warm into the mid 80s as the upper ridge builds over the southwestern U.
117 AM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021 High pressure will maintain dry weather through today. Shower chances return tonight and Sunday with a crossing cold front. Lows are expected to be warmer than last night with the increased cloud cover, though still around 5 degrees below average. A broad trough will swing into the Great Lakes Saturday night.
1115 PM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 Canadian high pressure will build southeast into Pennsylvania through tonight, then pass off the Mid Atlantic coast on Saturday.
(Today through Sunday afternoon) Today is forecasted to be the warmest day of the week, because of compressional heating ahead of a "cold" front and upper level ridging. A trough will roll across the high plains dropping a "cold" front through the Panhandle this morning. The higher terrain of West Texas and portions of Southeast New Mexico could also see additional thunderstorm development from orographic lifting and daytime heating.
1125 PM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 High pressure extending across the area will move off to the east tonight. A weak cold front will return clouds and a chance of precipitation Saturday afternoon into Sunday. With high pressure pushing east into the Mid Atlantic states on Saturday, winds will slowly shift around the southerly by afternoon. Low temperatures Saturday night will stay up in the low to mid 60s. For Sunday, the main trough moves through the Great Lakes. This will allow a weak surface cold front to clear the CWA during the day. After showers clear the southeast, weak surface ridging builds in from the central plains.
A recent surface analysis shows a cold front that extends from southeastern South Dakota to western Nebraska with light northerly/northwesterly winds ahead of it across the CWA.
WV imagery this afternoon showing large scale pattern consisting of a deep trough extending into the northern Rockies associated with a deep upper low centered over central Canada. Meanwhile a cold front continues to push southward through the central Plains. This in part to an upper level high pressure ridge building into the central CONUS. At KOFK, we expect the low cloud deck to scatter out later tonight.
158 AM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021 Canadian high pressure will build southeast into Pennsylvania through tonight, then pass off the Mid Atlantic coast on Saturday.
1050 PM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021 A damp and foggy fall night looms ahead, with clearing skies and warmer temperatures for Saturday. A decaying low pressure system centered over western Iowa will continue to spin down this evening with easterly flow keeping low level moisture steadfast over southern Minnesota. A low stratocumulus deck lingers through the morning and should mix out in the afternoon, although at least partly cloudy skies will be common on the backside of the main cloud shield as convective temperatures are quickly reached with the onset of solar insolation within a regime of cooler temps/lower heights aloft.
159 AM MDT Sat Sep 4 2021 Dry and warmer conditions expected through the weekend. Ridge builds over the area on Sunday for sunny skies with breezy downslope westerly winds pushing highs to near 90.
We're seeing some passing high clouds over the area this evening as a dry inverted trough moves across the area. Temperatures are still expected to drop into the low-to-mid 60s by Saturday morning. The ridge will begin to flatten on Saturday as a trough moves to the north across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. This trough will push a surface boundary southeastward into the Great Lakes and Mid- Mississippi River Valley.
Pops will linger until not only the front makes passage, but the upper trof swings thru.
311 AM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021 Upper level ridging situated over southern Lousiana was providing a NW flow across the greater Tennessee Valley. Otherwise quiet weather prevailed, with temperatures ranging from the lower 60s to around 70 with light winds. Upper ridging across the coastal Deep South should weaken tonight, as a trough axis extending southward from the western Hudson Bay to the northern High Plains moves to the SE. A reamplification of eastern CONUS troughing and the upper ridge rebuilding over the western states, will bring an increase in clouds across the region tonight.
850mb temps are a few degrees warmer and expect highs in the 80s to lower 90s. High pressure will build south of the area tonight and a westerly flow will develop. The high will then continue to develop into the region through the weekend. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s on Saturday, and upper 80s on Sunday, with the Basin in the lower 90s.
Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s with lows tonight in the low to mid 60s. Sunday, the upper level ridge will weaken in response to a trough digging southward into the Ohio River Valley. This trough will push a cold front southward into Tennessee Sunday.
A weak upper level trof was helping to generate sprinkles and light showers early this morning. The main feature of this upcoming week will be the amplification of an upper level trof over the eastern CONUS downstream of an anomalously strong upper ridge over the North American Rocky Mountains.
Throughout the day Saturday, an upper trough is forecast to sweep across the northern Plains and into the western Great Lakes. Outside of this low chance, mostly dry conditions are expected to prevail through the remainder of the Labor Day weekend.
Cold front currently extends from far southeast KS into northwest OK. By 00z Sun, cold front is expected to stretch from northern AR down to near the Red River which is where the better chances for continued heavy rain will be situated. This will push a cold front through the area which will return temps back briefly below seasonal normals for Wed. However, it will be short-lived as the strong upper ridge slowly slides east for the end of the work week which will get temps back above normal for Thu through Sat.
/issued 959 PM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021/ Upper ridge in place will result in dry conditions overnight with just some cirrus clouds transitioning SW across the region in the clockwise flow around the ridge axis. /Tonight through Saturday Night/ Upper-level ridge across the region to maintain dry conditions across the region through Saturday. Overnight low temperatures forecast to fall into the low to mid 70s. Subsidence associated with the upper-ridge to force Saturday high temperatures again into the mid 90s areawide with heat index values just shy of advisory criteria of around 105 degrees. Otherwise, overnight low temperatures to range from the low to mid 70s across the ArkLaTex.
Although the upper- level ridge will be centered almost directly over our forecast area today, some of the short-term guidance indicate a little spoke of moisture extending north from the Gulf into southeast MS today could support a few showers during the daytime. Otherwise expect a dry day across the area, with temps a little warmer than yesterday.
Better chances arrive across northeast OK into northwest AR Saturday afternoon and into the evening as a cold front sags into the area. Upper ridge will begin to break down into Saturday as broad mid level trough dives into the central Plains. Likely rain chances will expand from north to south Saturday into Sunday as cold front slowly pushes through the area. Finally some relief from the heat on Sunday behind cold front, aided by the more extensive cloud cover/precipitation.
Building high pressure in the West will bring a warming trend, with highs today in the 80's and into the lower 90's and then Sunday will see some mid 90's in warmest valleys. Winds will remain fairly light under ridging.
854 PM PDT Fri Sep 3 2021 High pressure will build into California this holiday weekend, bringing hot inland weather. The warming trend will continue as we head into our holiday weekend as high pressure aloft over the New Mexico strengthens over California.
Most of today should be warm and dry as a ridge centered over the Louisiana Arkansas state line continues to dominate our weather. However, this feature will shift to the south during the day allowing a cold front to edge into northeast Arkansas South Missouri and northwest Tennessee this afternoon. Overnight, the ridge to our south will continue to move south and the front will slowly move farther into the Midsouth. Sunday a vort max will rotate through a broad positively tilted trough oriented from the Great Lakes into northwest Arkansas allowing the front to surge through the remainder of the Midsouth.
312 AM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021 Latest surface analysis had an elongated trough across the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Southern Plains. Light winds and a moist boundary layer accompanying the trough has resulted in areas of fog, mainly over the western counties so far tonight.
As of early this afternoon, surface observations and satellite imagery depicted a cold front stretched from the Flint Hills of east central Kansas to the north side of the KC Metro to south central Iowa. While a few scattered showers are expected this afternoon and evening, a more expansive area of convection is expected late tonight from a complex of thunderstorms originating from the High Plains/southern Kansas, generally moving eastward. Dry weather is expected for the week ahead, with another reinforcing shot of cooler/drier weather by mid-week.
258 AM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021 The upper high continues its slow track to the southeast over the lower MS River Valley, and will provide the mid state with another dry day. A Midwest trough will move eastward to our north, and may bring some chances for showers and thunderstorms to far northern zones in the afternoon. But as that trough moves east this evening, another will follow in its wake, and help push a cold front through the region during the day Sunday. The chance for higher rain will line up with the slightly higher chances for strong storms in the south Sunday afternoon, but will all depend on the speed of the cold front moving through the area.
With the upslope flow of the low level winds, expect visibilities to be low less than a mile much of this time frame with low clouds expected through much of the morning. A much drier pattern is still expected to take hold across the region Sunday as medium range models show upper level ridging beginning to build in the Intermountain West, then amplifying further as it slowly shifts east out into the Western High Plains by mid-week.
337 AM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021 Exiting upper low and associated trough will bring a mild and dry day today. Some moisture wrapping around the low could provide for some clouds at times, although dry air in the lower atmosphere should limit any chances for precipitation today. High pressure ridge looks to build in from the west tonight. Weak ridging overhead on Sunday will bring a mainly dry day with temperatures warming into the 70s and 80s.
High pressure continues to bring dry, tranquil conditions to the region. VFR will continue through the TAF cycle as high pressure gradually shifts east into the Carolinas. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 64 86 69 85 / 0 10 40 50 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 65 84 68 84 / 0 10 40 50 20 Oak Ridge, TN 85 64 83 66 83 / 0 10 40 50 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 62 80 65 81 / 0 10 40 50 20.
Today through Sunday night Upper trough across west Texas and the Panhandles today through tonight and Sunday morning will allow for scattered to numerous convection across the forecast area mainly this afternoon through Sunday morning. Drier in the lower portions this afternoon which indicate the possibility for gusty winds and heavy rainfall initially this afternoon and this evening before the convection transitions to mainly a heavy rainfall/hydro event overnight tonight. Upper trough shifts east away from the Panhandles Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. A cold front will push slowly south from the Oklahoma Panhandle into the northern Texas Panhandle this morning. The cold front continues to push further south of the Panhandles tonight and Sunday.
Upper level high pressure centered over northern LA early Saturday will weaken slightly through Sunday, but elongate west-east and be centered more over southern LA by late Sunday. Subsidence from this high pressure will maintain the mostly dry and hot pattern over the area through the weekend. Continued hot, with daytime max temps mainly in the lower 90s, except upper 80s down near the mouth of the Mississippi River. Nighttime low temperatures Saturday night mainly in the low to mid 70s, with a few upper 70s for coastal areas.
The ridge axis cuts west-east across our CWA with 500 mb temps of -2 to -4 C and the mid level subsidence inversion becoming stronger compared to 24 hours ago.
306 AM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021 High pressure will maintain dry weather today, before shower chances return tonight and Sunday with a crossing cold front. Dry weather should continue today as high pressure moves east of the area. Warm advection ahead of the next approaching trough should maintain areas of mid/high level cloud cover streaming across the region. An associated sfc cold front is then progged to cross the area through the afternoon, with additional scattered showers with its approach and passage.
144 AM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021 High pressure extending across the area will move off to the east tonight. A weak cold front will return clouds and a chance of precipitation Saturday afternoon into Sunday. With high pressure pushing east into the Mid Atlantic states on Saturday, winds will slowly shift around the southerly by afternoon. Low temperatures Saturday night will stay up in the low to mid 60s. For Sunday, the main trough moves through the Great Lakes. This will allow a weak surface cold front to clear the CWA during the day. After showers clear the southeast, weak surface ridging builds in from the central plains.
410 AM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021 GOES water vapor imagery and CIMMS precipitable water estimates indicated the deep upper trough is broadening as the southern periphery is stretched southwest into the central Gulf of Mexico with slow southeast drift occurring over the central Florida Peninsula and off the east coast of the U.
1142 PM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021 High pressure will maintain dry weather through Saturday. Shower chances return Saturday night and Sunday with a crossing cold front. Lows are expected to be warmer than last night with the increased cloud cover, though still around 5 degrees below average. A broad trough will swing into the Great Lakes Saturday night.
This pattern only turns drier on Sunday as a zonal upper ridge settles over the northern Gulf Coast and lowers our PWATs an additional 1/4-1/3". This cap doesn't weaken until Labor Day once 850 mb winds back from south to east and source cooler temps.
1256 AM CDT Sat Sep 4 2021 The lower clouds have been persistent today especially in the eastern portion of the forecast area. Some higher clouds are moving into the west and overtaking the lower clouds and some portions of the area are still not seeing the sun even if the lower clouds are breaking up. Most of the action will be closer to the cold front that moved through the area last night. Temperatures for tonight and tomorrow will continue to be a little cooler than normal with lows around 60 and highs in the mid to upper 70s. Saturday night into Sunday morning there is another upper level wave that moves through and at the surface there is a weak cold front.