Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Low pressure over the Midwest/Great Lakes continues to slowly track eastward taking the clouds with it. Upstream plenty of clear skies is noted on satellite with surface ridging from Minnesota through western/central Iowa leading to cool temperatures in the 40s to around 50 degrees expanding into eastern Iowa and northeast Missouri with the clear skies. Further upstream, cirrus was streaming across the Northern Plains as energy tops an upper level ridge over the Rockies. Lows likely will range from some 40s in cool drainage areas, where patchy shallow fog is possible, to the lower 50s beneath mainly clear skies with some mostly thin cirrus. Trends further out suggest the potential for warmer than normal temperatures into late September.
High pressure has shifted eastward into eastern Montana this morning with a trough of low pressure situated along the west coast. There will also be a better chance for precipitation across northwest Montana on Wednesday afternoon as the upper level low slowly meanders northward along the northern Washington/Canadian border.
1210 PM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022 Latest surface analysis showed high pressure centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley with a ridge extending northward through Missouri and Iowa early this morning. In the upper levels, water vapor imagery is showing a ridge over the Rockies. Highs today will be around 5 degrees warmer than yesterday as the low level thermal profiles continue to warm up. Highs on Wednesday will be warmer still with 80s across the entire CWA.
1210 PM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022 (Today and tonight) Expect warm and dry weather today across the area due to an upper level ridge. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 90s with lows tonight 65 to 70.
Meanwhile, an upper ridge will build in behind this feature over the central CONUS and into the Deep South.
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern overnight, as a trough axis continues to shift east of the area.
316 PM EDT Tue Sep 13 2022 (This evening through Wednesday) Large trough over the eastern CONUS continues to move through the area. Highs will be in the mid 80s tomorrow, so a bit warmer than today as our cool continental airmass modifies a bit.
(This evening through Wednesday) A mid-level ridge will continue to move eastward as a trough pushes into the Desert Southwest. The aforementioned ridge will continue to build over the Southern Plains tomorrow, which will lead to temperatures in the low 90s for most of the area.
1158 AM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022 Upper level ridging will provide large scale forcing for subsidence over the next couple of days. Cavanaugh (Today through Wednesday Night) Sfc ridging over the area will gradually shift eastward through the period which will provide a transition to E/SE flow. Aloft, H500 ridging across the Rockies will expand eastward in the wake of the cyclone lifting northeast across the southern Great Lakes. As this ridge builds over the area, temperatures (especially daytime highs) will begin to increase to above normal values.
Upper-level trough will continue to shift eastward tomorrow, setting up for what will be a dry period for the foreseeable future. Highs will reach the low to mid 80s by tomorrow afternoon, which is near to just below average for mid September.
(The rest of today ) Warmer temperatures expected today as upper ridging continues to expand over the central CONUS.
1218 PM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) An upper level ridge over New Mexico and West Texas will break down today as a trough moves into the western United States. The trough will tap into eastern Pacific moisture and combined with afternoon heating will cause scattered showers and thunderstorms to form in southeastern New Mexico and areas of Texas west of the Pecos River, especially in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains where orographic lift will also aid in storm development. Tonight will be mild before the trough arrives over the CWA on Wednesday. Increasing lift associated with the trough should increase storm coverage and spread it farther east into the western Permian Basin. The increase in clouds on Wednesday may shave a couple of degrees off the high temperature as readings struggle to reach 90 degrees.
The upper level ridge will strengthen overhead on Wednesday, thus high temperatures will warm back up to normal values.
The high pressure system settling over the area, along with nearly unrestricted sun will make for a slightly warmer day, as high rise into the low/mid 80s.
/NEW/ /Through Wednesday/ Ridging aloft will keep quiet weather in place through Wednesday. Abundant sunshine and the return of southerly winds will result in warmer temperatures both today and tomorrow. Compared to yesterday, temperatures will be several degrees warmer area-wide this afternoon, with highs topping out in the upper 80s across the east to mid 90s across the west. Thankfully, dew points will remain low through the overnight hours tonight, providing us another cooler night with low temperatures falling into the 60s.
347 PM EDT Tue Sep 13 2022 Strong 1000-500mb geopotential height rises now crashing into the Lake Superior/northern Wisconsin region will kick the closed upper level low pressure system rapidly northeastward during the next 6-12 hours. The last of cyclonic vorticity maximum has been in place over Southeast Michigan correlating to cooler temperatures aloft and associated cumulus development. The weak, diffuse midlevel occlusion over northern Lower Michigan will be drawn southward as the low begins to pull away. Westerly flow with building upper level ridge will support moderating temperatures through the end of the week and upcoming weekend.
Meanwhile, upper riding extends through the High Plains. At the surface, cold front extends across the Northern Plains with Lee troughing in place across eastern CO. Upper trough over the Great Basin is expected to slowly track east tonight into Wed, pushing the upper ridge east. This will allow Lee troughing to increase, spreading gusty south winds across the region. Upper energy will continue to slowly track east on Thu and will move out into the High Plains for late Thu afternoon through Thu night. Confidence remains high that above normal temps will continue through the work week with highs generally in the low to mid 90s. Winds will be breezy out of the south today, but especially by mid-late morning Wednesday, as low pressure approaches from the west.
Slightly cooler than normal overnight during the mid week. Satellite imagery shows robust low pressure system across the eastern Great Lakes continuing to move toward New England today. Temperatures have reached the low 80s to mid 80s in many spots so far, with high temperatures expected in the next few hours peaking in the 84 to 87 degree range. During the overnight period, upper trough opens up and moves through northern New England. Weak troughing remains off to our west as high pressure builds across the central CONUS. Excellent radiational cooling in a continued dry airmass should lead to overnight lows in the lower 60s.
Locations that got into the lower and middle 50s fell into a top 10 coldest morning for September 13 at their respective sites. For tonight, favored cooler guidance models (heavy leaned towards MOS based) due to ideal radiational cooling conditions overnight. For Wednesday, continued dry air will support efficient warming and look for warmer day with Max T readings from the middle 80s to around 90. The large upper trough from early in the week will be off to our east by mid week and an upper ridge will move back over the region. Moisture will slowly return to the region heading into the weekend ahead of another upper trough located to our west and as the ridge shifts a little more east.
Temperatures look to cool even further into the weekend with a cold upper level low pressure system digging in over the Northwest. By mid afternoon, showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase ahead of an advancing upper level low.
We enjoyed a cool start this morning thanks to west-northwesterly flow as ridging takes center stage over the Central Plains. Humidity values will drop into the 30 to 40 percent range this afternoon as highs reach the lower to mid 80s with abundant sunshine, so it's definitely a good day to enjoy the outdoors! We become a few degrees warmer tomorrow as the ridge amplifies and builds towards the east over the Midwest, but conditions will remain very Fall- like with low humidity and rain chances at 0%.
An upper level ridge, currently centered over the High Plains, will progress east tonight. Rain chances do appear to improve later in the night as the trough advances east into areas of better moisture.
Low level ridging reaches west to near the Bahamas, with a weak undulation in the easterlies festering along its western flank. The low level cyclonic curvature analyzed by CIMSS over the Bahamas will meld into the waxing and waning diurnal kinematic pattern of Cuba, South Florida and the Straits over the next couple of days.
144 PM EDT Tue Sep 13 2022 High pressure arrives today to provide dry weather through the remainder of this week. A closed low will track over Lake Erie today, then across the northeast corner of the US. The upper trough will pass over the area tomorrow with little fanfare, but the mountains may have a few more clouds than today. Overnight lows will once again dip into the upper 40s to lower 50s across the mountains and mid 50s east of the Blue Ridge.
An upper level ridge continues to build over the area, placing us on the eastern side of the ridging pattern. As WPC Cluster Analysis shows good agreement between ensembles of the upper ridge continuing over the central CONUS through the end of this week and into the weekend, dry conditions and above normal temperatures are expected to continue. Southeast KS and southwest MO could climb into the low 90s, especially in areas still experiencing severe to extreme drought conditions.
240 PM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022 Dry surface ridging will remain in place through the short-term portion of the forecast leading to fairly tranquil weather.
Until then, the region will remain dry with increasing southeast breezes ahead of the low.
254 PM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022 GOES-16 satellite images early this afternoon continue to show wildfire smoke streaming in over upstream ridging aloft. Tonight's low temperatures will be warmer than the previous few nights, generally in the 50s, as 925-850mb warm air advection increases in the warm sector of a developing wave in CO/WY/MT and wildfire smoke streams in aloft. Deterministic guidance (non-biased corrected) continues to come in warmer and warmer for Wednesday so have raise highs slightly more, toward a model consensus. Efficient mixing into the low level jet also brings gusty south winds Wednesday afternoon, peaking 25 to 35 mph.
It will be notably warmer for the remainder of the week and dry. This activity will diminish this evening as the low departs. A 588dm ridge builds through the remainder of the week.
157 PM MDT Tue Sep 13 2022 The ridge axis is now as a far east as the Montana/Dakotas stateline. This activity will eventually drift east as far as maybe Billings during the morning tomorrow, as a cold front moves through. Once the cold front moves through during the day tomorrow, smoke should start to clear out as we start to pull in clearer air for the northwest. Temperatures will be cooler tomorrow with the cold front moving through in the morning. A significant trough will move in from the Pacific, but the evolution of this trough is highly uncertain. The ECMWF and its ensembles are more progressive while the GFS and its ensembles tend to cut off the low across the Southwest and pump more moisture northward into the area.
1238 PM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022 (Today through Wednesday) Weak 500 mb troughiness over the BRO CWFA, courtesy of closed 500 mb low pressure moving over the Great Lakes area, will prevail during a majority of the forecast period before being replaced by weak inverted troughiness for the final 12 hours. However, a burst of generally scattered showers and thunderstorms is forecast for Wednesday as the inverted mid-level trough combines with deepening tropical moisture.
Recent sounding observations and current model guidance support mixing in the lower levels. /CRJ/ Today and tonight: Heights will rise across the Lower Mississippi Valley as a deep closed upper low centered over far northern Ohio quickly lifts northeast. In its wake, upper ridging over the Southern Plains will also shift east.
We enjoyed a cool start this morning thanks to west-northwesterly flow as ridging takes center stage over the Central Plains. Humidity values will drop into the 30 to 40 percent range this afternoon as highs reach the lower to mid 80s with abundant sunshine, so it's definitely a good day to enjoy the outdoors! We become a few degrees warmer tomorrow as the ridge amplifies and builds towards the east over the Midwest, but conditions will remain very Fall-like with low humidity and rain chances at 0%.
143 PM MDT Tue Sep 13 2022 Current surface map places lee-side trof across Montana into Wyoming. Active southwest flow continues through the weekend with several impulses ejected from western trough.
126 PM EDT Tue Sep 13 2022 (Today and tonight) A weak cold front will slowly push through the area today with a drier airmass behind it. Low temperatures will be noticeably cooler in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the northwest half of the area, with mid 60s to near 70 across the southeast half.
Combined with the mid to upper level ridging, rain activity will be minimal to none. The most likely area that could have isolated showers and thunderstorms will once again be focused along the coast and southwestern counties, where the higher moisture lies. Lows will again be in the low to upper 60s for most inland regions and in the low to mid 70s for areas closer to the waters.
1153 AM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022 (The rest of today ) Warmer temperatures expected today as upper ridging continues to expand over the central CONUS.
The slightly cooler temperatures from previous days has been replaced with warmer temperatures as high pressure builds back in across the region. Highs will be a bit warmer tomorrow with most locations getting into the lower to middle 90s.
Upper ridging will slide eastward over the Plains today with the corresponding low level thickness rises/warming resulting in the return of a more intense heat with highs above 90F across central and southern Kansas. On Wednesday, remnant tropical moisture originating from the baja region will advect northward into the upper trof lifting northeastward across the Rockies. While the low levels will remain relatively dry, increasing mid and high level moisture/clouds may begin to impact western portions of the area late in the day.
312 PM EDT Tue Sep 13 2022 Less humid air will start arriving into the region following a cold front today. High pressure remaining to our north will keep the weather dry and seasonable for several days thereafter. Cold front pushing offshore and dewpoints are falling. The trough driving this boundary quickly swings through the Northeast (though it does leave behind a piece of energy with little consequence on account of the drying), and this lack of latitude aloft keeps the high well to our north through the period.
Slightly cooler than normal overnight during the mid week. Water vapor imagery shows robust low pressure system across the eastern Great Lakes continuing to move toward New England today. During the overnight period, upper trough opens up and moves through northern New England. Weak troughing remains off to our west as high pressure builds across the central CONUS. Excellent radiational cooling in a continued dry airmass should lead to overnight lows in the lower 60s. Upper trough axis will move over the region through Wednesday night, with upper ridging then building in by the end of the week. At the surface, dry high pressure building in across the area through the period.
Weak baroclinity associated with the incoming system will result in temperatures ranging from the lower 80s near the Texas/New Mexico state line and into the middle 90s across the eastern Rolling Plains, a temperature gradient of about 15 degrees over 175 miles across the CWA boundaries.
---BMickelson Previous discussion: Cool high pressure will drop into the northern plains today with a tightening pressure gradient as lee trof develops. With an upper trof digging along the west coast, moisture will be increasing across the region and some showers are possible across the northern zones. As the upper trof continues to develop across the west through the week, temperatures will remain near normal and occasional showers are possible.
300 PM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022 Surface cold front has stalled near the ND/SD border and is providing for some cooler temperatures with some mid to high level clouds across the north. Wednesday sees an upper level wave and an associated low pressure system move across the state. As daytime heating kicks in and the surface front turns the stall front into a weak warm front, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms could then be found later Wednesday morning through the day. The end of the work week sees a transitional pattern with weak ridging aloft.
Farther to the north, a closed upper low over the eastern Great Lakes and associated troughing extends south through the Ohio River River Valley. Interaction between high pressure over southern Florida and this frontal boundary will keep a SSW through W wind flow over the region through early Wednesday. High pressure builds in over the SE U. High pressure continues to ridge over southern Florida while a weak frontal boundary remains stretched across northern Florida and into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The front stalls over Florida by Wednesday with high pressure building into the southeast U.
Not to re-hash the previous forecast discussion, but high pressure continues to maintain a hold across the region and generally the whole of the midwest and plains. With sunny skies and calm winds, temperatures have warmed into the lower to mid 80s through 1 PM, with ample time to push near 90 by 3 to 4 PM; especially for those along the Missouri Valley and west. With the shift of the upper ridge east into Wednesday, look for warm air advection to increase as surface winds become a bit more organized and established out of the south.
1236 PM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022 (Today and tonight) Upper ridge will build east out into the Plains today. This along with veered low level flow will bring low level thermal ridge east with it resulting in warmer temperatures for today. Meanwhile developing western trough will also result in pressure falls across the high Plains and strengthening pressure gradient and increase in south winds. This will aid in warmer nighttime temperatures as well Tuesday night.
High pressure keeps conditions dry and seasonable.
Patterson (Issued 417 AM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022) Today through Wednesday Night: The occluding low pressure system that drove our weather for the past few days will continue to exit east this morning. High pressure should then keep things pleasant into Wednesday with high temps in the low 70s again, and passing high clouds. Something to keep an eye on is plummeting temps later in the day as a weak cold front comes down the lake.
The upper ridge axis centered over the High Plains today shifts into Mississippi Valley by late Wednesday. A modest low-level jet tonight and warming airmass should keep lows several degrees warmer than those of this morning.
Meanwhile, an upper level low pressure will keep moving slowly east northeast. However, the aforementioned upper low could still bring some cloudiness to prevent fog development to become dense. Highs on Wednesday will range from up to 80 degrees lowlands, to the lower 60s higher elevations.
1037 AM MDT Tue Sep 13 2022 A broad trough over the Desert Southwest with the remnants of Kay will bring increasing cloud cover today. Moisture from the remnants of Kay will move into the higher terrain this aftn. The lower levels are fairly dry so any activity that does develop will likely be higher based. For tonight will continue to see a chc of showers and a few storms over the higher terrain this evening. It is possible for these storms to become more scattered to isolated once moving off the higher terrain.
333 PM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022 (Issued 333 PM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022) Tonight through Wednesday night: High pressure in the Mid Mississippi Valley this afternoon has kept conditions clear and dry across Wisconsin.
Wednesday should be a little warmer than today as a flat short wave upper ridge passes through.
(Through Wednesday) A cold front currently stretches from about Valdosta to Apalachicola, slowly moving to the east. The seabreeze is making some inland progress along the Big Bend coast ahead of the cold front, and scattered storms are forming along the seabreeze late this afternoon. Drier air behind the front and clearing skies will lead to cooler overnight lows for most of the area. Lows will be in the lower to middle 60s outside of the coastal and southeast Big Bend.
1146 AM MDT Tue Sep 13 2022 A broad trough over the Desert Southwest with the remnants of Kay will bring increasing cloud cover today. Moisture from the remnants of Kay will move into the higher terrain this aftn. The lower levels are fairly dry so any activity that does develop will likely be higher based. For tonight will continue to see a chc of showers and a few storms over the higher terrain this evening. It is possible for these storms to become more scattered to isolated once moving off the higher terrain.
A cold front was dropping south through the Upper Peninsula, accompanied only by a wind shift. The cold front will drop south across the forecast area tonight. It will be cooler in the wake of the cold front, with highs only in the middle 60s to lower 70s. Wednesday Night Through Tuesday The weather pattern will be depicted by a deepening 500mb trough developing across the west coast of North America late in the week into the weekend. In response, a 500mb ridge is expected to build across the eastern half of the United States.
500 mb height analysis shows a trough axis centered over the California/Arizona border, leading to slight subsidence. Daytime heating will allow for convergence along the ridges today so convection will continue to occur across the mountains, with mid-level winds pushing these storms into the deserts. Modest troughing will be seen across our region for the remainder of this week, allowing for drying conditions, below-normal temperatures and breezy onshore winds across the mountains and deserts in the afternoons.
231 PM EDT Tue Sep 13 2022 An upper level low will keep the region mostly cloudy to cloudy and continue below normal temperatures today. The low will move away from the region on Wednesday, allowing warmer temperatures and sunshine to return through the end of the week and into the weekend. For Wednesday, mid-level ridging will cause decreasing clouds and much warmer temperatures by afternoon. Mid level ridge to build over the Mid and Upper MS Valley at mid week.
228 PM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022 The short term forecast looks quiet as high pressure dictates the sensible weather in the Mid-Mississippi Valley. An incoming upper level ridge and dry air throughout the atmosphere will keep showers away and skies clear.
WV imagery shows the upper ridge now moving through the central CONUS, transitioning flow aloft to southwest. However, this should be gone soon, and CAMs/NBM develop this east and south through tonight as the trough to the west moves into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Wednesday, w/the trough moving farther east, thicknesses will come down a bit, bringing temperatures a bit closer to normal. Rain chances will increase, mainly over the northwest w/the advancement of the trough. Overnight lows will be similar to tonight's, if not a degree or so cooler.