Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
139 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DRY COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO FINALLY PUSH OUT OF THE UPSTATE. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND BE CENTERED NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST EXCEPT STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING FAVORED THE COOLER GUIDANCE THURSDAY NIGHT.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. AS OF 02Z THEY WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. AND WITH THE HIGH STILL WELL TO THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. YIELD MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S BASED ON THICKNESSES AROUND 1365M. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
326 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2015 BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND CONTINUE TO BRING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WILL BE WATCHING A COLD FRONT TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY WITH COLDER AIR TO FOLLOW. THURSDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND RATHER COOL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WEAK WAA AT 925 MB WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. TO THE LOWER 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
NET RESULT WILL BE A MILDER START TO THE DAY TODAY AND A TAD WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTN THAN WHAT OCCURRED ON WEDNESDAY. ACCOMPANIED COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH THRU THE AREA AS WELL AND USHER IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS THIS FALL. SOME STRATOCU LIKELY FOR A BRIEF TIME BEHIND COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND BE IN EASTERN ND 12Z FRI. FRESH SUPPLY OF COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS IN MANY AREAS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING.
At the surface a ridge of high pressure will drop into the Missouri Valley, with light north to northeast winds becoming southeasterly 5 to 12 mph across western Kansas. Highs today will be slightly cooler and range from around 80 at Hays to the mid 80s south and west of Dodge City. Overnight lows are expected from the mid to upper 40s from Garden City and north, to the lower 50s south. This system will push a cold front down into western Kansas during the afternoon with south winds shifting north to northeasterly and increasing to 15 to 25 mph. Highs will be in the upper 70s north of the cold front near and north of Dodge City, to the mid 80s south.
THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT BRINGS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND FREEZING CONDITIONS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS. THIS SEEMED TO ACCURATELY DEPICT THE COOLER HIGHS WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH. AND CLOSER TO THE WARMER NUMBERS SOUTHWEST WITH MORE SUN. TO ACCOUNT FOR A LITTLE MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING LEANED CLOSER TO THE COOLER MOS NUMBERS AND ACTUALLY UNDERCUT THESE IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY COOLER LOW LYING LOCATIONS ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE CLOUDS THURSDAY AND ALLOW FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS OBSERVED IN THE ARLINGTON AREA. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN THE HIGH VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. WINDS MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TONIGHT DUE TO A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE COOLER TEMPS. THURSDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS QUITE CHILLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITHIN THE COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS.
115 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE A RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THURSDAY WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LOW IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF LAKE HURON. WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
638 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING BELOW NORMAL.
626 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. TEMPS COOLEST WITH CLOUDS AND WARMER IN THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT.
200 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY.
For today, expect high temps to top out a degree or two warmer than yesterday as the airmass moderates slightly. While isld instances of patchy frost aren't out of the question in sheltered locations, think that most low level moisture may go towards patchy fog production as dewpts bottom out above the freezing mark in the mid 30s. Clouds will increase over southern Indiana late in the day ahead of an approaching cold front.
331 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING BELOW NORMAL.
431 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 A COLD FRONT MOVED OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
30KT LOW LEVEL JET AT 850MB ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. FEW CLOUDS WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. RANGING FROM MID 70S NORTH TO THE LOW 80S EXTREME SOUTHWEST. COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY.
339 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2015 MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN EXPECTED DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TODAY WITH A DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S FURTHER SOUTH. MAY SEE AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CUMULUS DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE NORTHLAND AS A WEAK PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE MAIN PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM CANADA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE LOWER 50S.
CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST. WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER H850/H925 TEMPS. HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONGWAVE TROUGHING REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING WEST. THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS INCREASING TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTHWEST AND LOW 80S NORTHEAST.
438 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING BELOW NORMAL.
351 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. TEMPS COOLEST WITH CLOUDS AND WARMER IN THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT.
A TROUGH WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NRN MN TODAY. WAA OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A BRIEF INCREASE IN 925-850MB TEMPS WITH AIR THAT BROUGHT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S IN SE SODAK YESTERDAY GETTING PULLED UP INTO MN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWS BEING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WE ARE SEEING THIS MORNING. ISSUED AT 404 CDT WED OCT 14 2015 AN ESSENTIALLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA EARLY ON THURSDAY.
335 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2015 NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESULT IN RECORD TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS SOME AND ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW TODAY/S VALUES BUT BOTH WACO AND DFW AGAIN HAVE A CHANCE TO BREAK THEIR DAILY RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THE 15TH.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL COAST.
341 AM PDT WED OCT 14 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA ALONG WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
140 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 AVIATION CLOUDS WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
THE NW WINDS OVER THE ERN LAKE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND WILL SEE INCREASING SW WINDS THIS MORNING AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKE BEHIND THE RIDGE. SHOULD SEE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR AND OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING AND BECOMING W- WNW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH. NAM SHOWS A DEEP AND BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U. WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.
TWEAKED LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO MATCH LATEST (AND SLIGHTLY COOLER) TRENDS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO REMAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST INTO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN BETWEEN GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGHINESS AND UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR THIS DAY WILL BE STRONG/GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
DRY COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL GA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL MEAN COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH READINGS FALLING INTO THE 50S INLAND. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.
614 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 DRY COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE MIDLANDS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO ENTER THE REGION.
ANOTHER FINE DAY IN STORE FOR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE GENERATING SUNNY SKIES OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SKIES WILL BECOME SUNNY LATER TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S. SKIES OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAD CLEARED WHERE THE LOW LEVELS WERE QUITE DRY PER LATEST AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS. BROAD TROF IN ERN CANADA/U. AND RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL AMPLIFY LATE THIS WEEK AS A SHRTWV MOVES SE FROM SWRN CANADA ACROSS THE GRTLKS AND TO THE NERN CONUS.
312 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THURSDAY.
A DEEP LAYER MEAN TROUGH COVERS MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MID-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONIC VORTICITY MAXIMA AT THE BASE OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS IS SOLID MARITIME TROPICAL WITH CURRENT AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE KEYS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
525 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR FREEZING IS PROBABLE OVER THE WEEKEND. COLD ADVECTION RESULTING IN A STRATOCU DECK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY WHEN FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING DEVELOPS TO HELP CLEAR CLOUD COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MAINLY SUNNY, WARM, DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE HIGH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERAL RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL BRING AN END TO WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW THERE. AND IT WILL BE COOLER THERE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MEANDER NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD POINT CONCEPTION TONIGHT LIKELY MOVING ONSHORE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING 850 TEMPS IN THE LOW 20S CELSIUS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SO WE'LL BE WARM ONCE AGAIN.
319 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2015 THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. A COLD FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS TROUGH WILL SPELL BIG CHANGES FOR TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. COOLER AIR STARTS TO TRICKLE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE TROUGH THEN PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AND COULD TRIGGER A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
153 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE LINE OF 40S DEWPOINTS HAS MADE IT PAST THE BLUE RIDGE AND WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SE WV TONIGHT WILL SOME SPILLOVER OF SCT CU OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE. W/NW WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING 15-25KTS AT TIMES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION OUT OF CANADA TODAY.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS BROAD TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH REX BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CONUS. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND CLEAR THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AROUND MID-DAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND ANOTHER CALM AND QUIET NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE. WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES AS DRY DOWN STREAM WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THURSDAY. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE DAKOTAS THURSDAY NIGHT.
1228 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 915 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015/ A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LAST NIGHT. THE MAIN THING THAT NEEDED TO BE UPDATED WAS THE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AS THEY HAVE RECOVERED QUICKER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST (BACK INTO THE LOW 40S). TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON TRACK TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THE ADVERTISED COLD FRONT THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS NOT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA AND REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER DRY AIR ABOVE 5000 FEET IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION AS BROAD MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO TEXAS. WINDS CONTINUE LIGHT EAST TODAY AND TURN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING STEADY IN THE LOWER 70S IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES. MODELS SUGGEST LOW POPS TODAY IN THE LOWER VALLEY AND OVER THE GULF WATERS AND EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVER A SLIGHTLY LARGER AREA MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 69C THURSDAY. ANOTHER ELEMENT OF THE HIGH DEW POINTS WHICH IS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME DEVELOPING IS FOG. WITH NO FRONT MOVING THROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS DOES MODEL GUIDANCE.
657 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THURSDAY.
132 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR FREEZING IS PROBABLE OVER THE WEEKEND. COLD ADVECTION RESULTING IN A STRATOCU DECK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY WHEN FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING DEVELOPS TO HELP CLEAR SKY COVERAGE. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR A LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT APPROACH AND PASSAGE. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH REINFORCING COLD FRONTS RESULTING IN PROGRESSIVELY COLDER TEMPERATURES. WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPS BY THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
418 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2015 (Today and Tonight) Dry conditions will continue for the next 24 hours, with afternoon highs today slightly warmer than yesterday. Thus, highs today will likely be a couple degrees warmer, especially given sunny skies and relatively light surface winds.
355 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2015 EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS TODAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERN KANSAS THURSDAY EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. CONVERGENCE INCREASES AS IT RUNS INTO AFOREMENTIONED LEE TROUGHING AND BETTER MOISTURE. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ATTEMPTS TO RETURN.
HAVE SIDED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WELL MIXED WHICH WILL LEAD TOWARDS THE LOWERING DEW POINTS AND LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
WITH BROAD SFC RIDGING STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TENN VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD START THE DAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S STEADILY WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL PIVOT EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON.
Temperatures should be a few degrees cooler than yesterday but still reach into the 70s east with low 80s west, continuing the above normal trend of past days. By Thursday morning, a broad mid-level trough will be stretched across the northeastern quadrant of the U. Models continue to show fairly dry conditions in the low and mid levels with the frontal passage, along with limited available lift, so expect dry conditions through the day. There looks to be a delay in the cooler air surging into the area behind the front, so expect much of the area to warm into the upper 70s to low 80s.
These clouds have resulted in temperatures being held in the lower to mid 60s in the north, though they could go up a few degrees over the next couple of hours. For tonight, high pressure will still be west of the area and winds will stay up in the 3-5 knot range. Lows will still drop into the lower to mid 40s with some upper 30s in the traditional cool spots. Highs Wednesday will be a couple degrees warmer than today, in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The setup for radiational cooling will be a bit better Wednesday night into Thursday morning and thus have forecast lows a degree or two cooler than tonight. If it does, this would keep temps a bit warmer.
342 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2015 MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE REMAIN THE HIGH WILD FIRE DANGER.
641 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR FREEZING IS PROBABLE OVER THE WEEKEND. COLD ADVECTION RESULTING IN A STRATOCU DECK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY WHEN FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING DEVELOPS TO HELP CLEAR CLOUD COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN.
140 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND POOL OF MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT WAS CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL MARK THE TRANSITION TO A COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
310 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2015 After a brief return to southwesterly winds overnight, a dry cold front will move through the Ozarks this morning. If anything, temperatures may be a few degrees warmer in spots with highs ranging from the middle 70s across central Missouri to the lower 80s across far southern Missouri. Lows tonight will range from the middle 40s around Rolla (closer to that high pressure) to the lower 50s across southwestern Missouri. Thursday then looks like another warm day ahead of an approaching Canadian cold front. While moisture will be somewhat scarce, lift in the low and mid levels of the atmosphere may be able to compensate. Behind that front, a cool air mass will filter into the Ozarks to end the week as high pressure builds southeast across the Great Lakes and Corn Belt.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL COAST.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES.
341 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2015 Weak high pressure will move east across the Lower Ohio Valley tonight. Winds today should be a little lower as the high pressure center approaches from the west. Winds will be southerly on the back side of the high pressure system Thursday. Highs should be several degrees warmer on Thursday, likely reaching 80 in parts of se Missouri. A strong cold front will move rapidly southeast across our region on Thursday night.
420 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 DRY COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE MIDLANDS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO ENTER THE REGION.
430 AM MDT WED OCT 14 2015 ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE ON TAP THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
409 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID-LVL TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NE U. AND A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS. A LOW PRES SYSTEM SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND A HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE NRN PLAINS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT UNDER CLEARING/PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES TO RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING OVER THE WRN INTERIOR TO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S EAST AND NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SHORES. NAM SHOWS A DEEP AND BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U. WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.
AS CENTRAL PLAINS ANTICYCLONE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DVM MIGRATES EAST OF THE MO RIVER BY 00Z. ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN MO WILL SLIDE E/SE TOWARD THE OHIO VLY BY 12Z THU WITH WINDS BACKING TO W/SW. COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND W/SW LOW LEVEL WINDS FAVORABLE FOR WARMER LOWS MAINLY IN MID 40S TO NEAR 50. ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL IN THE EAST TO DIP DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S AHEAD OF CLOUDS. ONE THING IN THE WAY OF ANY APPRECIABLE COVERAGE AND QPF IS THAT THE LOW LEVELS ARE VERY DRY. THIS FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL NEED TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS BEFORE WE SEE ANY QPF. MUCH COOLER AIR IS FORECAST TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA AND LEAD TO THE REAL FIRST CHANCE FOR FROST OR EVEN A FREEZE ACROSS THE AREA.
141 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. MID LEVEL LOW PIVOTING THRU THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH H8 THERMAL TROF OVER THE REGION.