Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
534 AM CST Mon Nov 21 2016 High pressure and clear skies continue over Arkansas. Today Through Tuesday Night An upper ridge will be over the Plains today but will move east of the Mississippi River this evening. An upper trough will move into the Rockies tonight and into the Plains Tuesday. The trough axis does not move through Arkansas until late Tuesday night. a low pressure system just east of the Rockies will gather strength this evening and an associated warm front will move through Arkansas. This warm front will bring more southerly winds and moisture to the state. The low will move through Kansas Tuesday with a trailing cold front. ahead of and along the cold front.
557 AM EST Mon Nov 21 2016 Low pressure over Quebec province will remain nearly stationary through early Tuesday. This low will maintain a blustery westerly flow across the area along with a few upslope snow showers mainly across the higher terrain.
/issued 303 AM EST Mon Nov 21 2016/ Aloft - Ridging centered over the Gulf of Mexico extended to the Canadian Prairies while a low was above New England. Surface - High pressure over western Ontario sprawled south. The upper ridge shifts eastward with an axis from FL to Hudson Bay while the upper low slips over the Canadain Maritimes. The only location that may reach freezing is Levy but briefly. A generally dry stable and cool air mass prevails but slowly moderates as the ridging. As a result the low level flow shifts from northerly today to north- easterly by Tue.
Although there may be a few isolated areas with at or below freezing temperatures in rural areas, temperatures will rise quickly with unabated sunshine and dry air in place. Sub-freezing temperatures are expected across inland locales this morning prior to sunrise. The latest raw temperature guidance is on the conservative side, therefore blended the latest MAV and MET guidance, which is generally running 2 to 3 degrees warmer across the region.
838 AM EST Mon Nov 21 2016 After a chilly start to the morning with temperatures in the 30s and 40s from north to south dry stable conditions associated with high pressure surface and aloft building toward the region will maintain cool dry conditions with ample sunshine across the entire forecast area the rest of today.
709 AM EST Mon Nov 21 2016 Cool high pressure will prevail into the middle of the week.
755 AM EST Mon Nov 21 2016 Low pressure over southern Quebec will continue to cause blustery conditions through today.
High pressure prevails across the region. Clear skies and light winds are creating good cooling conditions and temps range from the mid 20s along the TN River to the lower 30s in the Delta with a few hours of cooling left. High pressure slides slowly east during the period. Low pressure will be moving through the Plains on Tuesday with a cold front pushing through the southern Plains.
521 AM CST Mon Nov 21 2016 A few breezy southeasterly winds will be possible this afternoon as the pressure gradient remains between he exiting ridge over WI and the nearing trough nudging into western SD. The 500mb trough extending along the west coast early this morning will remain an open wave as it pushes into and across the Plains States early Tuesday morning.
415 AM CST Mon Nov 21 2016 The axis of an upper ridge will move across the area today allowing dry weather and abundant sunshine to prevail. Farther to the west, the next upper trough will approach the Four Corners Region by this evening. The upper trough will begin to emerge onto the Plains by Tuesday morning.
647 AM EST Mon Nov 21 2016 High pressure will build across the region today and Tuesday.
/issued 320 AM CST Mon Nov 21 2016/ Its already a much warmer morning than the previous two. This appearance of the perennial and hot upper ridge will not last long though when a front moves through Oklahoma during the day Tuesday.
Another cool night tonight with temperatures expected to remain just above freezing inland with patchy frost.
643 AM CST Mon Nov 21 2016 Updated for 12Z aviation discussion 12Z TAF discussion: VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours with overhead high pressure keeping winds light and variable.
There are better chances of lows falling below freezing tonight in counties to the east where the radiational cooling effect will be more profound due to lighter winds and drier conditions. Part of this evolution involves suppressing the dreaded subtropical ridge further south than has been the case lately, opening the door for a more regular passage of non-insignificant upper level disturbances.
112 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 A warm front will lift to our northwest today, then a backdoor cold front pushes through the area Saturday.
Southerly gradient has set up over the Ohio Valley ahead of a deep closed low currently nearing the OK/TX Panhandle. Tonight the upper low will parallel the old Route 66 corridor out of Oklahoma into southern Missouri, and the warm conveyor belt will slowly edge eastward across Kentucky and Indiana. Upper pattern looks progressive through most of the week, with a series of lows ejecting out of the Desert Southwest, and southeast CONUS ridging to guide them ENE across the Ohio Valley.
149 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Expect mild weather today in a breezy southerly flow ahead of low pressure centered to the west.
A weather system and associated cold front will sweep across north central Idaho early this evening and western Montana overnight.
Models agree that an upper low, seen in water vapor imagery over the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles this afternoon, will move to southwestern Missouri by 12z Saturday.
156 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 High pressure will maintain fair weather today.
The main items of interest for today is the deformation rain band that is forecast to wrap around the synoptic low and the high wind potential. Therefore, have the highest pops in our north across the forecast district. This should delay the onset on the strongest winds on the backside of the low. Have added an end warning buffer since the low is moving more slowly across the greater region. The model does continue to vary with the position of this heavier axis as the synoptic lows/trofs keep changing with each run. An attendant cold front will move east through the terminals this afternoon with gusty north winds developing behind the front. Showers could develop this afternoon under the upper level low pressure system over the area.
1245 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017 For the 24/18z TAFs, convection is already developing along and ahead of a Pacific cold front/dryline from Central Oklahoma southward into Texas.
Cold front currently in far western forecast area will continue deeper into the area but should stall overnight. Expect a generally pleasant day on Saturday with clouds clearing once the fog dissipates and cold front moves through.
313 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Showers and thunderstorms are continuing to push in from the west, out ahead of the associated cold front.
305 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Warmer weather returns with temperatures climbing well above normal this weekend.
1231 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Intense mid-level cyclone associated with 150 m H5 height falls this evening was located over SE CO early this morning. Broad zone of ascent associated with strong low- to mid-level thermal advection was ongoing to the northeast of the cyclone from the central Plains to the upper MS river valley. Models are in fair agreement today in the upper level cyclone moving east across southern KS/northern OK and into eastern MO by Saturday night. As temperatures ahead of the cold front increase to around 70, and forced ascent associated with 700-400 CDPVA becomes juxtaposed over the southern CWA we will likely see isolated to scattered convection develop.
Today will be mainly dry, breezy, and warmer. A strong southerly flow will gradually moisten the lower levels. As the first wave of precip weakens east of the Mississippi River on Saturday morning, another area is forecast to develop over Missouri (per the 00z nam/gfs) and then move east across the Lower Ohio Valley. The activity will diminish from west to east Saturday night as the upper low moves northeast across central Illinois.
This makes sense as subsidence aloft continues as a mid/upper level ridge progresses across western and central ND.
/ISSUED 954 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/ Pacific cold front has entered far western areas of the CWA.
118 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017 The strong upper low that brought the high wind to the area yesterday is moving across the Southern Plains today. Will have brief upper ridging over the area Saturday before a series of upper troughs moves this way.
MVFR cigs possible this afternoon as some low clouds may stream in from the west ahead of the upper trough, mainly for KCKV and KBNA.
322 PM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Daytime satellite imagery shows a departing low pressure system centered over the southern high plains. Not expecting freezing temperatures in the Grand Valley and points westward along the Colorado River, but higher mountain valleys will certainly experience their coldest night in several days. Cloud cover will thicken through the day on Saturday with precipitation beginning first in the eastern Uintas by noon, and into the higher elevations of western Colorado by 6pm.
310 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Satellite imagery shows diminishing coverage in the low cloud over the southwest part of the forecast area. Continued to carry a small ridge valley temperature difference for tonight, but depending on actual sky cover this could be underdone or overdone. Focus for the weekend will shift to the mid and upper level low pressure system showing up nicely on satellite over the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. The models are in good agreement that the mid and upper level low will be north of St.
Stratus and northerly flow have kept temps only in the 30s and 40s, but Chicago managed to reach the low 80s south of the front. The precip band has weakened and shifted southeast but the upper low across the southern Plains will eject northeastward to the Mid Mississippi Valley Saturday/Saturday night which will bring the clouds and precip band back northwestward. That the bottom line, so thought it best to temper expectations and acknowledge that there will be little change in the forecast and not anticipating any drastic uptick in confidence until this highly amplified, split-flow pattern changes. Within these upper level lows are areas of enhanced vorticity which end up producing precipitation.
Its cold front, stretching from the central Plains, southward through Arklatex is firing up showers and thunderstorm west of the Mississippi River and giving them a good severe potential.
403 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017 The vigorous closed upper low over the extreme eastern Texas Panhandle late today will exit the Panhandles by this evening with skies clearing behind the departing upper low as subsidence prevails.
Instability to the east is meager owing to deep mixing/drying and so as the low progresses east, much of western Oklahoma should not experience more than passing light showers.
303 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017 As the upper level low moves east tonight, a weak deformation band of rain showers will move east and end this evening. Skies will become mostly clear from northwest to southeast overnight with weak high pressure building in. Lows to fall near or below freezing.
231 PM PDT Fri Mar 24 2017 High pressure will push eastward tonight as next system approaches the west coast. through Saturday night Ridge will continue its progression eastward as a Pacific trough pushes onshore of the west coast Saturday morning. Ahead of the trough precip chances will spread southeastward towards the the I-15 corridor by tomorrow morning and continue towards I-40 throughout the day on Saturday as trough passes across the region. Snow levels should briefly lower to around 6500' late tonight into tomorrow morning over the Great Basin where between a trace to 3 inches of snow is possible across the higher elevations. Gusty winds will accompany this system overnight Friday into Saturday morning shifting from southwest to northwest on Saturday in the wake of the trough.
With the exception of one weak wave of low pressure Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, the short term forecast period looks to be rather un-eventful. This next weather disturbance will ride along a Pacific NW trough, but will not have near enough moisture to make enough of an impact for most of our CWA.
Upper ridging will help keep the area dry today, but an increase in clouds is expected with moisture and some isentropic lift in a warm advection pattern. However, did go warmer than some of the MOS numbers.
227 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Currently across the region gusty south winds along with a few breaks in the clouds were providing for temperatures in the low and mid 70s. but with the cold front and upper support still to the west conditions will by early afternoon should turn around with new development triggering near the Mississippi River. The highest gusts will occur west of the Mississippi River. Kept lows above guidance tonight and highs aligned with the warmer GFS tomorrow.
The chance of convection will continue Saturday, as the upper low currently over the TX Panhandle moves east, ending up over MO by 18z Saturday. Expect bands of convective activity to rotate about the low NNE across the area through the day.
247 PM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017 The strong upper low is now beginning to shift more east and southeast this afternoon away from Colorado and into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Clearing skies tonight as high pressure builds into the region by Saturday morning. Warmer temperatures on the plains Saturday with readings back into the 60s, but only upper 40s/50s under areas of snow cover.
432 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 A cold front will drop south through the region tonight and will stall southwest of the area on Saturday as high pressure builds in from the north.
As we go into Saturday, the initial squall line should dissipate early in the morning as it moves away from better support and into a stout mid level ridge centered over the southeast CONUS.
113 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017 A nearly vertically stacked low pressure system has developed over SE Colorado with a triple point over central Kansas extending a warm frontal boundary up through central Nebraska and a weak cold frontal boundary south into northern TX. As the low moves into northern Arkansas and southern MO Friday night into Saturday as the occluded like boundary pushes through the area creating another round of scattered showers with embedded elevated thunderstorms throughout most the day on Saturday.
327 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 High pressure will continue to move off the Virginia and North Carolina coast this weekend. A strong area of low pressure will drift east over the southern plains with a trailing cold south into Texas. A warm front will reside from the Great Lakes region to Lake Erie into Saturday. The center of a dry stable high pressure will continue to drift off the VA/NC coast into this weekend. Tomorrow's high will range from the upper 60s across the mountains to mid 70s east of the Blue Ridge. Warmer and moist this period.
High pressure that has been to our east will gradually shift further east tomorrow in advance of an incoming low pressure system. Temps in the lower 70s expected at most locations, which will be around 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
High clouds are starting to stream in as a result of exiting high pressure ridge. SW flow aloft increases and moistens later this afternoon through tonight as an upper level trough moves into the Western US. NE to SW oriented cold front will pass east across the region late tonight through early Saturday morning. Breezy S/SW winds will develop this afternoon at most terminals ahead of the frontal system/upper trough.
This activity has been elevated in nature and is occurring in a area of favorable upper level divergence in advance of an upper level low currently spinning over the Texas Panhandle. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected overnight and into Saturday morning as the upper level low moves out of the Texas Panhandle and across Oklahoma. The upper level low will be over southwest Missouri by early Saturday morning. The remainder of Saturday will be dry as ridging aloft builds over the region.
ML CAPE within the moisture axis looks to be on the low side under 1000 J/kg due to this. Water vapor imagery shows the approaching trough axis so cooling aloft is expected with the height falls later this afternoon. At this point look for the cap to be stronger along the coast but farther north into the higher risk areas, the cap should be weaker. Best PVA and height falls are not expected to occur until closer to 00Z this evening so still time to monitor the evolution of convection through the moisture axis as the trough axis approaches. Bottom line is that we will continue to be monitoring for cap breaking due to cooling aloft with the approaching trough.
Winds should remain out of a northwesterly direction through this TAF cycle, and we could see an increase around sunset at KGUY the low level inversion sets up.
but increase and slowly veer southwest tomorrow ahead of the cold front. The cut-off upper low will slow its northeastward progress on Saturday, under a broad upper ridge. A trof axis extending south of the low will rotate into northwest MS / southwest TN Saturday afternoon, helping to reorganize storms in an increasingly unstable airmass.
315 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Even with an impressive cyclone spinning over the eastern Texas Panhandle, high winds in our CWA have been rather subdued in both time and space today. Boundary layer decoupling alone won't be enough to curtail these winds much below 20 mph this evening, particularly as stronger pressure rises arrive ahead of surface ridging. Saturday remains a stellar day under clear skies, seasonably mild temps and light winds within the lingering surface pressure ridge. After a pleasant Saturday, the next upper level trough will dig into the region from the Great Basin becoming negatively tilted then establishing a closed circulation to our north.
Already seeing scattered SHRA developing along a pre-frontal trof edging into the western fringe of the CWA at this time and more widely scattered stuff just ahead of this.
321 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 A cold front will drop south through the region tonight and will stall southwest of the area on Saturday as high pressure builds in from the north.
In the middle to upper level(700-200 mb), latest available model streamline analysis overlaid on top of satelitte imagery as of 300 pm depicts a deep low pressure system pushing eastwards attm near, over Western Kansas. Downstream of that, a deep and warm middle and upper level ridge bulges northward to New England from Southern Mexico. But more pertinent, to Keys weather, there is a well defined north to south oriented (at 500 mb) trough axis positioned from near 70 West 30 North south southwest to Central Cuba thence into the Western Caribbean Sea. At the surface and in the lower to middle levels(Surface to 700 mb), Latest satelitte imagery overlaid with marine and land surface observations and analysis as of 300 pm, details the center of a 1036 mb strong surface anticyclone was positioned near 36 North 69 West.
247 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 A strong area of high pressure will be nearly stationary offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast. Upper ridge centered along southeast U. coast gets flattened out while a cut-off low opens up and moves towards the Great Lakes.
303 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Satellite imagery shows diminishing coverage in the low cloud over the southwest part of the forecast area. Continued to carry a small ridge valley temperature difference for tonight, but depending on actual sky cover this could be underdone or overdone. Focus for the weekend will shift to the mid and upper level low pressure system showing up nicely on satellite over the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. The models are in good agreement that the mid and upper level low will be north of St.
227 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 High pressure will control the weather through most of the period with temperatures mostly above seasonal averages.
241 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Mixed rain and freezing rain will transition over to rain this afternoon. To the east, rain continues as does some below freezing temps so the timing on that sdegment looks good. Temps around this time will be around freezing. Atmospheric profiles still show a brief period of freezing rain and sleet before precip transitioning over to rain. Decided to extend to the advisory over the east as temps may not rise above freezing as quickly as previously thought. Temps Fri will rise into the low 50s over the western CWA, and the low 40s over the higher terrain.
255 PM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Filling surface/upper low moving into western Oklahoma with northerly flow over the CWA this afternoon. Expect clear skies across the CWA overnight into Saturday as a short upper ridge passes across. After a cool night it will be warmer again Saturday with highs attaining the 60s over most areas outside of the mtns.
145 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Warmer weather returns with temperatures climbing well above normal this weekend.
Thin high clouds were spilling over the ridge into the area this afternoon. Baroclinic leaf associated with upper trough along the Pacific Coast, was seen on satellite imagery approaching the region. System's cold front was seen moving E through the Pacific NW. The trough will approach the area tonight and an upper jet will bring right-rear quadrant divergence to the area on Saturday. Models bring the cold front into the west after 06Z tonight, which will cut off any gusty gap winds. The upper trough will cross the area Sat.
Large scale pattern will feature a closed low that will be present over far southeast CO/far western OK Panhandle at the start of the period. Over the next 12 hours the 500 hPa closed low will weaken and fill in some and be over eastern OK by early evening then track into the western Ozarks by early Saturday morning. Upper level ridging builds into the central Plains on Saturday and Saturday night bringing a return to dry and warmer conditions.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday night): Low pressure area continues to sweep across the Texas, pushing a weak cold front out ahead of it. Prefrontal trough in our region has slowly decreased winds, and is starting to bring drier air and heating into the western valley. Weak H5 ridging sets up for tomorrow behind today's trough, while more dry air draws into the Western valley during the day. Highs will reach the low to mid 90s out west in the drier air, while the western valley remains in the upper 80s in the more humid regime.
Any CIGs below 030 should be isolated and short-lived, with the highest chance of this happening for Miami-Dade County terminals. The mid level trough associated with the front will amplify a bit over southern Florida and the straits of Florida today.
1234 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Low pressure system continues to deepen over the High Plains of southeast Colorado early this morning, keeping a stout south wind over the forecast area. Storm development has remained well to our west in vicinity of a dry line over western KS/OK, and along the warm front over NE/IA. By mid to late evening, will carry high pops all areas as main low pressure system approaches the region and cap gradually erodes. Low pressure will be over the region Saturday morning so will keep precipitation going through the afternoon before tapering off in the evening as the storm system weakens and lifts northeast of the Ozarks.