Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Light winds, along with high pressure and a persistent subsidence inversion over the area, have once again allowed freezing fog to develop overnight and into this morning. Tonight and Tuesday, the upper ridge will be pushed out of the area by a trough approaching from the west.
Most guidance has been too cool lately in the non-snow areas, and went with the higher side of guidance.
855 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 Drying will occur behind a cold front today.
Clouds will move out as a cold front moves through later today. In the upper levels a trough is over the Eastern U. At the surface a weak cold front will move through the region today. By late morning or early afternoon clouds will move out as a cold front moves through. Highs will be mainly in the low 70s.
In the wake of the front, high pressure will build into the region, along with some cooler drier air.
/issued 450 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017/ Weak backdoor cold front has stalled out near or just north of I-20.
334 AM MST Mon Nov 13 2017 Areas of freezing fog will linger across eastern portions of the Hi-Line this morning before burning off.
Increasing warm air advection/isentropic lift tonight will lead to a chance for drizzle or freezing drizzle over much of the area. It's possible a Winter Weather Advisory may be needed for parts of the Northland as even a little freezing drizzle can lead to slick roads. Temperatures will warm overnight so if the precipitation is delayed some more drizzle than freezing drizzle could occur. There may be ongoing drizzle/freezing drizzle in the morning with a chance for rain/drizzle in the afternoon as temperatures warm into the upper thirties to lower forties.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Mid level ridging will remain in place over northwest Mexico and deep south Texas through the period. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 60s inland to the lower 70s along the coast.
Dry weather with periods of high clouds will persist this week as high pressure remains over the region or situated just to our south. A storm system passing to the north later in the week could bring slightly cooler temperatures and some breezes to the Southwest. To our south, high pressure remains over Mexico while a trough digs into the Pacific Northwest. Models indicate warmer air associated with this high pressure will expand into our area today pushing up surface temperatures by a degree or two. The aforementioned Pacific trough will gradually dig south and east this week as several systems move through the trough.
Today, drier air moving over the area will combine with increasing subsidence from a building upper high over the Southern Plains to keep temps around to a bit above seasonal today. Highs generally in the low 70s.
612 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017 Increasing thin cirrus has only had minor effects on the freezing mist/fog this morning across central MN and WI. Temperatures will be above freezing, except early evening toward Rice Lake and Ladysmith where a brief period of freezing drizzle is possible. No icing is expected with temps rising above freezing relatively quickly following the onset. The GEM/EC have been slower for the late week system, and has allowed for much warmer air to move northward.
With the high pressure area drifting overhead today, the inversion is expected to remain in place to support the more generous cloud cover.
450 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017 Weak backdoor cold front has stalled out near or just north of I-20.
721 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 Drying will occur behind a cold front today.
Trough to our north will shift to the east and take away clouds slowly throughout the day at KTYS/KCHA.
Because of this, I'm inclined to go with some of the lower guidance.
759 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 Light rain with some snow mixed in will continue through the morning with crossing low pressure. Dry and cool conditions are then expected under high pressure until the next disturbance crosses by midweek. The high should maintain dry weather through Tuesday night as it slides east.
/Issued 339 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2017/ Compact closed mid-level low pressure center will move across the southern half of the Combined Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles today and this evening. Mid-level flow becomes near-zonal Saturday, inducing development of lee trof, which will move into western sections.
Across the higher elevations of the blue mountains such as in Meacham the snow totals could range from 3 to 5 inches by tonight that will effect driving along interstate 84. Temperatures will struggle to rise above freezing with the better chances of this occurring over and near the Kittitas valley and around the Redmond oregon areas where a mix of snow and rain should occur this afternoon.
A light onshore breeze will develop by early afternoon along the coast, providing a few degrees of cooler temperatures for the afternoon. high pressure moving off the coast just north of the state will promote favorable boating conditions.
428 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2017 (Today and Tonight) Cold front has pushed through most of the forecast area, and should clear the last row of counties in the next hour. Colder air is starting to filter in to the Big Country, with temperatures now only a few degrees above freezing. Clearing should occur after midnight tonight, with temperatures falling just below freezing for most areas by sunrise.
/issued 442 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2017/ For this morning, freezing drizzle and/or light freezing rain is expected near and southeast of the I-44 corridor. Temperatures are currently colder than any short-term guidance with the freezing line currently located just southeast of I-44. Expect the freezing line to continue shift southeastward to southeast of the OKC metro before sunrise. The uncertainty is the northern extent of the rain and if there will be any overlap of the rain and the subfreezing temperatures, but this could be possible southeast of I-44. For simplification, the winter weather advisory was issued to account for both freezing drizzle and/or light freezing rain today and the snow tonight. For Saturday, warmer temperatures are expected with highs generally in the 40Fs.
There may be a few light showers in the northern portion of the forecast area, but overall the general trend with this disturbance will be slightly cooler temperatures and general cloudiness.
405 AM MST Fri Dec 22 2017 Southern CO will be between weather systems today and thus the weather will be dry, and temps will be warmer in most locations. Tonight, as an upper trof drops into the northern Rockies and northern plains states the gradient aloft will increase, bringing stronger winds to the higher elevations. By morning there could be a couple or three inches of snow accumulation, mainly over the higher elevations of western Lake county, with lesser amounts over the rest of Lake county and the high elevations of western Chaffee county. Winds will help keep warmer temperatures across the Plains Saturday afternoon, with highs in the 50s.
A strong cold front extends from Pecos to San Angelo to Waco while an upper level trough is over far western New Mexico. The upper level trough will move across New Mexico today and Texas tonight. As the trough moves across Texas, showers and storms will end late this afternoon out west and this evening across the east.
Travel impacts were minimized by above freezing road surface temperatures. The main forecast issues in the short term period are potential lingering flurries/freezing drizzle this morning and impacts on morning commute. BUFR soundings suggest marginal ice introduction aloft, which would mean periods of flurries alternating with drizzle or freezing drizzle depending on surface temperatures. Road surface temps are starting to drop below freezing along Highway 20, and should continue a bit farther south during the early morning hours. Impacts will likely be limited to some slick spots on untreated sub-freezing roads and elevated surfaces, mainly across the northwest portion of the forecast area.
Models indicated snow will wind down on Saturday night as the ridge over the West pushes eastward.
These clouds have started to erode as upper level trof axis pushes across the area and based on satellite imagery should be east of the area by sunrise.
/issued 348 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2017/ A cold front stretched across southern Missouri into northwest Arkansas early this morning will drop southeast into the Mid South this morning and stall out in the vicinity of the Interstate 40 corridor. Temperatures ahead of the front today will be quite warm with highs ranging from the upper 50s in northeast Arkansas to the lower 70s in northeast Mississippi. A reinforcing cold front will move across the Mid South by Christmas Eve with even colder temperatures anticipated.
/issued 327 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2017/ Shwrs rapidly developing ahead of an approaching upper low over wrn NM. Upper trof to move into the Upper Red River Valley tonight, finally forcing the front and associated convection to push ewd. Much cooler temps are expected for Saturday in the wake of the cold front. Clouds unlikely to clear completely, however, as another disturbance/cold front is fcst to dive sewd in nw flow aloft Saturday night.
Colder air with the Canadian cold front is beginning to move into northwest Montana from the east.
An increasingly warm and moist return flow will continue to influence area weather through tonight as a cold front continues to advance towards the region from the east. Dense fog development has remained somewhat patchy overnight with development hindered especially over the Florida Panhandle by the low cloud cover advecting over the region and the slow northward progression of the higher dewpoints over the Gulf. Suspect the tightening gradient and the strengthening southerly flow will keep the lower levels more mixed with more low stratus and less dense fog except for perhaps in localized sheltered locations.
A low pressure system moving across the region could produce some snow around 20Z. /issued 436 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2017/ Upper level low over the four corners this morning is expected to dig just a bit further south today and traverse the CWA (perhaps slightly favoring the northern part) as the system begins to fill.
Broad upper level ridging extends from western Cuba northward over the Florida peninsula and southeast U. Farther west, a closed upper low sits over the four corners region with associated troughing extending south over the Baja peninsula. The upper ridge will shift to a more southwest to northeast orientation by late Saturday as the trough to the west approaches the eastern U.
This is the area of best forcing as trough moves across the area into tonight. Surface cold front sweeps into southeast MN by this evening. Cold ridge exits to the east this morning allowing a southwest wind to develop and should dislodge the shallow cold air somewhat. Will trim the highs a degree or two to the south where fresh snow is located. With the first surge of cold air having dropped through today, the second surge of arctic air comes over the weekend behind a dry cold frontal passage.
There is a trof that is currently located over the 4 corners region, however, this feature will have no impacts for SW Kansas. Otherwise, high pressure will build in through the day. There will be weak lee troughing Saturday.
Surface wise, a lengthy, although modest ridge of high pressure is aligned along the eastern seaboard and down the Sunshine State. With the very close proximity of a strong and deep anticyclone, moisture will be scant with only a light low level easterly wind. With that, zero pops will be inserted in the grids with high temperatures averaging in the lower 80s under mostly sunny skies.
The Beartooth and Crazy Mountains look like a solid 8-10 inches with northwestern aspects seeing the highest amounts. As low pressure system departs Saturday, tightening pressure gradient will increase winds across the area.
High pressure will continue to bring dry weather, warming daytime temperatures, and chilly nighttime temperatures through Saturday.
High pressure dominates into the weekend with generally benign conditions.
514 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2017 A cooler more winter like pattern has started to set up over the area on the backside of a cold front that is currently moving through SE MO. This cooler airmass will settle into the area as high pressure builds into the central plains. High temperatures will be roughly 20 degrees cooler than yesterday, topping out in the mid 30s to upper 30s in central MO. The surface pattern will remain similar with high pressure entrenched over our area keeping cooler temps in place.
408 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2017 At 09Z a cold front was pushing through western North Dakota, supporting areas of light snow. Deep upper level low is centered over western Hudson Bay on Saturday with broad cyclonic flow over much of North America.
436 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2017 Upper level low over the four corners this morning is expected to dig just a bit further south today and traverse the CWA (perhaps slightly favoring the northern part) as the system begins to fill.
High pressure will build in tonight and Saturday, bringing an end to snow across much of the area and with it a push of cold air into the region. Highs Saturday will be cooler, ranging from 10 to 15 across the north, with highs around 20 across east-central and northeast Wisconsin.
Temperatures will be in the upper 60s along the coast, and the low to mid 70s inland.
/issued 544 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2017/ A cold front stretched across southern Missouri into northwest Arkansas early this morning will drop southeast into the Mid South this morning and stall out in the vicinity of the Interstate 40 corridor. Temperatures ahead of the front today will be quite warm with highs ranging from the upper 50s in northeast Arkansas to the lower 70s in northeast Mississippi. A reinforcing cold front will move across the Mid South by Christmas Eve with even colder temperatures anticipated.
Winds will remain southerly through today ahead of a cold front currently sweeping through Texas. A line of showers associated with the cold front will near BPT before midnight, continuing eastward overnight. Feature will be accompanied by a strong cold front progged to advance across the forecast area through the overnight hours. Sharply drier and cooler air will be following the frontal passage with rains tapering off west to east on Saturday.
558 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2017 /12Z TAFS/ Mostly MVFR/IFR this morning behind a cold front, as showers move across the eastern half of the area. /issued 428 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2017/ (Today and Tonight) Cold front has pushed through most of the forecast area, and should clear the last row of counties in the next hour. Colder air is starting to filter in to the Big Country, with temperatures now only a few degrees above freezing. Clearing should occur after midnight tonight, with temperatures falling just below freezing for most areas by sunrise.
Rain wl gradually taper off from the W late tngt/Sat morning as the main upr trof swings to the E of the region. Cannot rule out some snow mixing with the rain ovr part of NW AR early on Sat, especially in the higher terrain, as colder air advects in. Although some of the higher elevations could see a light dusting of snow, travel problems are not anticipated.
Feature will be accompanied by a strong cold front progged to advance across the forecast area through the overnight hours. Sharply drier and cooler air will be following the frontal passage with rains tapering off west to east on Saturday.
Temperatures range from low 20s in the far northwest to near freezing in our far southeast. Daytime highs should reach the middle 30s, before incoming high pressure and clearing skies drop overnight lows into early Saturday morning down into the teens in north central Kansas to the low 20s in the southeast.
These conditions will be in place for much of the day with some improvement expected as a cold front moves south into the region. A strong cold front extends from Pecos to San Angelo to Waco while an upper level trough is over far western New Mexico. The upper level trough will move across New Mexico today and Texas tonight. As the trough moves across Texas, showers and storms will end late this afternoon out west and this evening across the east.
Latest surface obs indicate cold front extending from northeast ND to just east of KBIS, about to move through Linton. At 09Z a cold front was pushing through western North Dakota, supporting areas of light snow. Deep upper level low is centered over western Hudson Bay on Saturday with broad cyclonic flow over much of North America.
Updated forecast adjusted hourly temps nearer short term progs which maintains temps within a few degrees of freezing across portions of Osage / Pawnee counties through the afternoon. Will also include light icing as dominate precip type should be freezing rain where temps are below freezing.
442 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2017 For this morning, freezing drizzle and/or light freezing rain is expected near and southeast of the I-44 corridor. Temperatures are currently colder than any short-term guidance with the freezing line currently located just southeast of I-44. Expect the freezing line to continue shift southeastward to southeast of the OKC metro before sunrise. The uncertainty is the northern extent of the rain and if there will be any overlap of the rain and the subfreezing temperatures, but this could be possible southeast of I-44. For simplification, the winter weather advisory was issued to account for both freezing drizzle and/or light freezing rain today and the snow tonight. For Saturday, warmer temperatures are expected with highs generally in the 40Fs.
A surface front, along with a broad upper level trough will cross the region today.
Cold front clears the area today as an upper level wave begins to strengthen and track across Oklahoma late today and then across Arkansas tonight. Any lingering snow will end Saturday morning as the system pushes east of the area, However, another upper level trough will move across northern Kansas and northern Missouri Saturday night.
Otherwise, temperatures appear to be on track with readings more or less holding steady in the low to mid 30s.
Ridge along the west coast has amplified in the last 24 hours. The Nam and Gfs looked to be started out the best on the low level thermal field. That moisture in the lower levels does not arrive in the north until later in the day.
Recent models have trended slightly wetter and warmer. Latest estimates are for 2 to 6 inches new snow in the West central Idaho Mountains, Boise Mountains, and Owyhee Mountains, 2 to 4 inches along the Idaho/Nevada border, 1 to 2 inches in the Snake River Basin (except less than an inch in the Lower Treasure Valley), and generally less than an inch in eastern Oregon. The snow will come from the north this afternoon with a southward moving cold front.
Very cold temperatures in the low single digits near and west of highway 83. A cold front was analyzed from the western North Dakota into southern Montana. An upper trough currently extends across British Columbia to the west, then extends across the Northern Plains, across the Great Lakes to Upper New England. A slight chance for light snow by late evening to extend east to Valentine through Oshkosh, with 40 pops across the Pine Ridge. The models continue to show additional Arctic pushes mid and late week with additional snow chances as a deeper trough and strong upper jet crosses the Rockies late week.
534 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2017 An area of light snow was pushing northeast out of Iowa and is likely associated with the mid level short wave trough axis pushing through. Ridging slowly builds in for tonight with some clearing expected, especially west.
Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough located over southern SASK and southern MAN, and another over northern SASK. Southern trough will move east across the northern valley and southern MAN for today. A cold front located over northwest ND will sweep across the forecast area today.
Winds will be less than 10 kts today but will increase tonight as a low pressure system approaches.
525 AM EST Fri Dec 22 2017 Low pressure should return light rain chances today, with more widespread rain expected tonight and Saturday.
Cancelled the Fog Advisory for Western Florida Panhandle and South Central Alabama as windflow failed to come around more to the South allowing the warmer moister air to advect over the cooler waters. An increasingly warm and moist return flow will continue to influence area weather through tonight as a cold front continues to advance towards the region from the east. Dense fog development has remained somewhat patchy overnight with development hindered especially over the Florida Panhandle by the low cloud cover advecting over the region and the slow northward progression of the higher dewpoints over the Gulf. Suspect the tightening gradient and the strengthening southerly flow will keep the lower levels more mixed with more low stratus and less dense fog except for perhaps in localized sheltered locations.
412 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2017 For this morning, freezing drizzle and/or light freezing rain is expected near and southeast of the I-44 corridor. Temperatures are currently colder than any short-term guidance with the freezing line currently located just southeast of I-44. Expect the freezing line to continue shift southeastward to southeast of the OKC metro before sunrise. The uncertainty is the northern extent of the rain and if there will be any overlap of the rain and the subfreezing temperatureGrantley s, but this could be possible southeast of I-44. For simplification, the winter weather advisory was issued to account for both freezing drizzle and/or light freezing rain today and the snow tonight. For Saturday, warmer temperatures are expected with highs generally in the 40Fs.
455 AM MST Fri Dec 22 2017 12Z TAF CYCLE A moisture poor upper level low pressure system will track gradually eastward across central and eastern NM today, before ejecting across the TX panhandle this evening. Temperatures today will be much cooler than recent days, with even some light snow over parts of eastern New Mexico.
The temperatures are expected to remain above freezing, with no icing expected. /Issued 330 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2017/ Cold front currently pushing into far southeast Oklahoma early this morning with gusty northwest winds behind the front. Snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches will be possible near the Interstate 44 corridor and in the higher terrain areas of northwest Arkansas before precip shifts east Saturday morning. Also, depending on how quickly the heavier precipitation spreads north of the front today, there is some potential for freezing rain or freezing drizzle if temperatures can wet bulb below freezing.
This will be changing today though as a cold front situated near a Paris-just southeast of Dallas-Lampasas line at 4 am slowly pushes through SETX today and this evening. Temperatures Saturday morning should be about 20-25 degrees cooler than current 4 am obs. The upper trough over NM this morning will swing through into AR/NETX 6 am Saturday with weak high pressure building into TX.
A weak ridge of high pressure at the surface will be over the area this morning, then a reinforcing shot of cold air will move in behind a front later today and into tonight.
A cold front will move through South Texas this evening with strong northerly winds developing behind the front.
934 AM EST Fri Dec 22 2017 Low pressure returns light rain with widespread rain expected tonight and Saturday.
542 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2017 At 09Z a cold front was pushing through western North Dakota, supporting areas of light snow. Deep upper level low is centered over western Hudson Bay on Saturday with broad cyclonic flow over much of North America.