Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
621 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Upper level ridge axis bending across the great lakes today, and will be the main weather influence into Thu. At the sfc, high pressure will continue to hold across the new england states. GFS/EC remain in good agreement with slowly shoving the upper level ridge axis southeast for the later half of the week, working a 500 mb trough from southern Canada across the ridge. Some instability to play with, but deep layer shear holds west/northwest, in the cooler air. The trough and northwest flow look to take over for the start of the new work week. VFR high clouds look to thin today, with dry conditions continuing as the area remains underneath an upper level ridge.
1028 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 High pressure remains in control for now, with dry and quiet weather. High pressure remains large-and-in-charge over the region, as an upper low stays distantly parked in the Carolinas. Dewpoints meanwhile will only go up slightly into the lower-mid 50s Wednesday; still very comfortable values for this time of year.
/Issued 335 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020/ An upper-level, closed low pressure system will settle across the Carolinas through the short term. With the forecast area to the west of the low, drier air from the north will filter in in the upper- levels with northeasterly upslope flow near the surface keeping the lower levels cooler and moist. Tomorrow, the upper-low will drift from SC to NC, allowing moisture to wrap farther around the low and with reduced upslope flow. Thiem The slow-to-depart cutoff upper low will remain an influence to the local area at the start of the forecast period.
Upper-level low pressure approaching from the south will bring increasing chances of scattered afternoon and evening precipitation by the second half of the week. Only change at 520 AM was to add patchy fog to some of the valleys north of I-80, where a lack of cloud cover has allowed a few of the cooler valleys to reach crossover temperatures. Upper level low pressure will continue to spin in the Carolinas today, as it remains cut off from the mean flow. Temperatures will be seasonable, as highs are expected to be around 80 degrees outside of the ridges.
Warmer temperatures, lower humidity and breezy north winds will bring elevated fire weather concerns beginning Tuesday. Cold front has stalled out across NorCal early this morning with satellite imagery indicating partly cloudy skies across the northern half of the forecast area while skies are clear to the south. Current temperatures are cooler across most of the region compared to 24 hours ago and range from the 40s and lower 50s in the mountains, to the upper 50s to mid 60s across the Central Valley. As the trough pushes east across the PacNW today, gusty northwest winds will continue across the northern portion of the forecast area while breezy southwest winds will continue to the south. Gusty northerly winds will develop and spread south across the Central Valley late tonight as the trough shifts further east and northerly gradients tighten.
/Issued 336 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020/ Upper level ridge remains over the area this morning as it has for several days. A shift in the pattern will finally occur by the end of this week and especially into the weekend as an upper level trough moves across the northern plains and breaks down the ridge enough for a more active pattern to set up.
Similar to yesterday with the drier air mixing down (dew points in the lower 60s) temperatures climbing to around 90 along the coast and lower 90s inland will be tolerable for any outdoor work or activities. High pressure will maintain tranquil boating conditions on the Gulf waters the remainder of today with light northeast to east winds and slight seas with an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast during the afternoon.
542 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020 A slow moving, blocky weather pattern was over the region this morning with an upper level ridge extending from the southern Plains northeast into WI and MI with a slow moving cut-off upper level low over South Carolina. GKS The gradual warming trend will continue for the remainder of the work week due to persistent south-southwest surface winds, and an upper level ridge still over our area between the slow moving cut-off upper level low moving northward into the Ohio Valley region and the northern stream upper level trough/low moving eastward into the Northern Plains.
534 AM MDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Overnight WV imagery depicted an elongated upper ridge axis from the western Great Lakes through the central Great Plains into the southern Rockies. A upper low was approaching the WA coast. The upper low continues its east-southeast trek across the Pacific Northwest today, and into ID tonight. A low level thermal ridge with temperatures in the mid to upper teens Celsius will center over the high plains this afternoon. The upper low over northwest WY Wednesday morning moves northeast MT late in the day, with a trough axis trailing south into UT. Isolated showers will be possible over western Carbon County Wednesday morning, with widely scattered thunderstorms accompanying a southward-moving cold front Wednesday evening.
712 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 The recent stretch of relatively cool, dry and comfortable weather conditions in central Pennsylvania will soon come to an end with a warmer and more humid trend expected into Father's Day weekend.
559 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020 As we remain sandwiched between a low pressure system off to our west and a high pressure system off to our east, warm and windy conditions remain across the area. As the low marches eastwards, the pressure gradient is expected to be at its strongest this afternoon and has thus prompted a wind advisory to be issued westward along a line from Brookings county to Charles Mix county.
622 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 High pressure will remain in place across the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley today, while an area of upper level low pressure affects portions of the Atlantic coast.
Tranquil conditions are being found early this morning, as our area remains under the influence of persistent high pressure over the Great Lakes. The pattern looks to remain stagnant and continued dry for the region over the next few days, as a Rex block formed between Great Lakes ridging and a cutoff low in the southeast prohibits much eastward progression of a western CONUS trough. However, this blocking pattern does look to break down late week and over the weekend. This will allow for upper troughing and an attendant surface front to make inroads leading to a more active/unsettled period of weather. More splendid wx on tap for the area with Great Lakes ridging the dominant feature.
/issued 426 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020/ High pressure at sfc extends from the eastern great lakes south down into deep south Texas. when combined with daytime heating and a weakness aloft at the base of the ridge this should be enough to give us a chance for some showers and thunderstorms in southeast Texas with isolated showers and thunderstorms for southern Louisiana. Heat indices will be the real issue today as they are expected to climb back into the low to mid 90s.
Largely a persistence forecast as high pressure remains over the eastern Great Lakes while stacked low pressure continues to spin over the Carolinas.
630 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 High pressure remains in control for now, with dry and quiet weather. High pressure remains large-and-in-charge over the region, as an upper low stays distantly parked in the Carolinas. Dewpoints meanwhile will only go up slightly into the lower-mid 50s Wednesday; still very comfortable values for this time of year.
The current forecast appears to be on track for the afternoon with weather dominated by the Middle Atlantic states upper low. Pop gradation from highest pops east to lowest pops west still looks good with the deepest moisture and lift still impacting Southwest Virginia and Northeast Tennessee with some orographic lifting all along the North Carolina border with convergence lifting along a trough over this area. Moisture associated with the Carolina's upper low will favor abundant mid clouds with sct/bkn low vfr cu/stratocu through Tuesday.
High pressure is dominant over the region. Wednesday, with south winds blowing, and limited cloud cover once again, highs should be a notch warmer than today, with widespread 85 to 88 expected.
Overnight WV imagery depicted an elongated upper ridge axis from the western Great Lakes through the central Great Plains into the southern Rockies. A upper low was approaching the WA coast. The upper low continues its east-southeast trek across the Pacific Northwest today, and into ID tonight. A low level thermal ridge with temperatures in the mid to upper teens Celsius will center over the high plains this afternoon. The upper low over northwest WY Wednesday morning moves northeast MT late in the day, with a trough axis trailing south into UT. Isolated showers will be possible over western Carbon County Wednesday morning, with widely scattered thunderstorms accompanying a southward-moving cold front Wednesday evening.
The last in a series of upper level lows will be moving over the forecast area today and then exit to the east overnight. Continued cooler than normal temperatures today but then will see a warming trend starting Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure returns.
A slow-moving upper level low is spinning off the coast of the Carolinas.
1231 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Elevated convection tracked from north of Pierre over Mobridge area and is now headed into North Dakota and that should be about it till the evening threat for storms. The region will be situated between high pressure to the east and a low pressure system over eastern Montana/Wyoming this morning. The low level jet increases into the 50-55 knot range, but instability will be waning by this time and there will be a bit of a CAP in place. Cold front will be marching eastward across the CWA, with storm initiation expected between the Missouri and James rivers, possibly closer to the James. Behind the passing cold front, a break from the 90 degree heat of late and back to readings in the 70s and 80s for high temperatures.
The persistent upper low will continue to stall over the Carolinas, keeping temperatures several degrees below normal for this time of the year. The aforementioned upper low will slowly pivot to the northwest on Wednesday, and not much change is expected in our weather pattern. High temperatures will once again struggle to reach above the lower 80s, making for another pleasant day in mid June.
KHOB could also see the lower ceilings by close to sunrise Wednesday but confidence was not high enough to include at this time.
The low level jet strengthens towards morning as well, with peak winds in the NAM at 60kts at 2. Additionally, through the afternoon there will be subtle push of some cooler air from west to east in the mid-levels. Wednesday night: Upper trough continues slowly east but flow at 500mb remains southwesterly. Low level flow will also bring cooler temperatures to much of the CWA.
Tonight will be quiet with clear skies under the blocking upper level ridge and lows once again falling into the lower 70s. Wednesday features somewhat stronger winds compared to today as a Front Range lee trough deepens ahead of an approaching Pacific NW trough.
The region is within a zone of broad low-level confluence on the western edge of the eastern CONUS ridge. Mid-level temperatures are also a tad cooler, along with slightly richer/deeper low-level moisture, all contributing to a weakly capped airmass around peak heating. Strong daytime heating combined with this increase of moisture and relatively cooler 700mb temps aloft could result in a few weak bubbling updraft attempts.
Meanwhile, a mid-latitude cutoff upper low over the Carolinas has pushed drier air as far south as Central Florida, with MIMIC PW imagery showing a fairly sharp moisture boundary across the southern FL peninsula.
A weak cool front has developed on the backside of the low as northeasterly winds has pushed the weak cool front into the region. A noticeable difference in moisture behind the boundary, as dewpoints are in the lower 60s across portions of South-Central Arkansas and Northeast/North-Central Louisiana. Slightly cooler temps behind the boundary with highs in the upper 80s.
Prior discussion below: Today & tonight: Today: The backdoor cold front is drifting southwest through the region this morning. Water vapor imagery shows a strong reinforcing punch of dry air & isentropic subsidence on the western side of the upper low. Lows will fall below normal into the low-mid 60s.
Issued by National Weather Service St Louis MO 325 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Southwest Missouri is sandwiched between two systems this afternoon, high pressure centered over the northeastern U. and a trough of low pressure over the Great Plains. Much of the eastern half of the area from around Lebanon to Vichy and southeast still has drier dew point air in the mid 50s parked in place due to a more east-southeast flow which is more influenced by the high. Lows tonight should be similar to lows this morning, perhaps a few degrees warmer across the eastern Ozarks where the wind will be turning more to the south-southeast later tonight. Higher humidity and warmer temperatures will continue to build slowly into central and south central Missouri on Wednesday, as the Northeast high continues to drift eastward away from our area.
403 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Another day of ideal weather conditions is unfolding across SE Michigan thanks to high pressure that remains locked in place across the Great Lakes.
Upper level trough over the western states will slowly over the next couple of days. This will result in a warming trend as the subtropical ridge builds over the southwestern states. Also, as this trough begins its journey out today expect to see some gusty winds across the San Joaquin Valley, with elevated wind gust in Eastern Kern County due to a tightening pressure gradient.
1119 AM MDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Upper trough/low is moving into the Pac NW, with southwest flow increasing over the CWA. Deep southerly low level flow is continuing to advect in warmer air this morning. As a result, warmer temps are expected today, which will be enhanced by a dryline pushing in from the SW through the day. A cold front will move in from the northwest late this afternoon and through the evening hours. The upper low will propagate to the northeast on Wednesday, with the cold front stalled across south central SD. Cooler temperatures are expected behind the front. A strong wave will round the bottom of the upper low, crossing the CWA Wednesday night.
The combination of the higher moisture and daytime instability along the sea breeze has lead to scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms to develop over the region this afternoon mostly west of I-37. The rest of the period looks rather calm as a weak ridge builds aloft. Near normal temperatures will continue through the period with lows tonight in the low to mid 70s and highs on Wednesday ranging from the mid 80s along the coast to the mid 90s over the Brush Country. Lows on Wednesday night will run a few degrees warmer inland as moisture gradually returns.
218 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Prevailing high pressure will bring tranquil and very warm conditions through the remainder of the week.
/issued 1005 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020/ Another beautiful day on tap today with afternoon highs in the lower 80s and dewpoint temperatures in the upper 50s. 09Z Surface analysis places a back door cold front from Western Missouri and Arkansas south into Louisiana and into the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, an upper level low is located over the Mid-Atlantic states. High pressure behind the cold front is resulting in clear to mostly clear skies, and temperatures as of 4 AM CDT in the middle 50s to lower 60s across most locations. Otherwise, rain free conditions are expected to persist across the Mid-South today with highs this afternoon in the lower to middle 80s with minimum relative humidity values ranging between 35 to 40 percent and producing comfortable conditions for mid-June.
338 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Low pressure developing along a stalled front off of the Southeast coast will move north into eastern North Carolina through Wednesday. Rain chances will begin to diminish by the weekend as a weak upper ridge builds into the area, bringing much warmer temperatures.
137 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020 137 PM CDT Upper level pattern remains very similar to yesterday, with a cut- off upper low spinning near the mid-Atlantic, an upper ridge over the Great Lakes and mid-Mississippi Valley, and an upstream upper trough over the western CONUS. Daily lake breezes will continue to keep things 10-15 degrees cooler along the Lake Michigan shore, while inland temps warm into the mid-upper 80's. Warmer daytime temps, and slightly higher dew points will also make for slightly milder overnight temps tonight and Wednesday night as well. Ratzer 125 AM CDT Ensemble and deterministic forecast model guidance remain in fair agreement the deep troughing across the western United States will shift eastward toward the end of the week.
1244 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020 A slow moving, blocky weather pattern was over the region this morning with an upper level ridge extending from the southern Plains northeast into WI and MI with a slow moving cut-off upper level low over South Carolina. GKS The gradual warming trend will continue for the remainder of the work week due to persistent south-southwest surface winds, and an upper level ridge still over our area between the slow moving cut-off upper level low moving northward into the Ohio Valley region and the northern stream upper level trough/low moving eastward into the Northern Plains.
Another dry night with "cooler" temps, when compared to the average for mid June. A steady increase of moisture into the area will begin Wednesday as the upper low over the Carolinas shift north and the Atlantic ridge builds back across the Florida peninsula.
1111 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Elevated convection tracked from north of Pierre over Mobridge area and is now headed into North Dakota and that should be about it till the evening threat for storms. The region will be situated between high pressure to the east and a low pressure system over eastern Montana/Wyoming this morning. The low level jet increases into the 50-55 knot range, but instability will be waning by this time and there will be a bit of a CAP in place. Cold front will be marching eastward across the CWA, with storm initiation expected between the Missouri and James rivers, possibly closer to the James. Behind the passing cold front, a break from the 90 degree heat of late and back to readings in the 70s and 80s for high temperatures.
Low pressure continues to drift north along the Carolina coast with a dry northerly flow across se Georgia and ne Florida. Little change for Wednesday as low pressure moves into North Carolina.
338 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Latest surface observations indicate afternoon temperatures in the lower 80s today with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. Not much change to the synoptic pattern as the cut off low pressure drifts over the Mid-Atlantic states while another low builds across the pacific northwest through much of the work week. High pressure will build over much of the area, funneling dry and seasonably warm air into the area.
243 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 High pressure will continue to provide dry and quiet weather.
The upper level low over the Carolinas will continue to slowly lift northward through Wednesday. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 60s inland to low 70s along the coast.
230 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 The region was between low pressure off the North Carolina coast and high pressure over New England.
As the upper low carves eastward over next 24 hours, some elevated instability will work it's way around the base of the trough throughout the day tomorrow. Cooled tomorrows high temperatures slightly from the NBM given latest MOS guidance suggesting cooler values, dewpoints near 60, and expected cloud cover.
1005 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Another beautiful day on tap today with afternoon highs in the lower 80s and dewpoint temperatures in the upper 50s. 09Z Surface analysis places a back door cold front from Western Missouri and Arkansas south into Louisiana and into the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, an upper level low is located over the Mid-Atlantic states. High pressure behind the cold front is resulting in clear to mostly clear skies, and temperatures as of 4 AM CDT in the middle 50s to lower 60s across most locations. Otherwise, rain free conditions are expected to persist across the Mid-South today with highs this afternoon in the lower to middle 80s with minimum relative humidity values ranging between 35 to 40 percent and producing comfortable conditions for mid-June.
Upper ridge pattern remains in place until Wednesday afternoon/evening, as an upper trough axis begins to slide east into the area. Above average temperatures expected tonight, Wednesday, and Wednesday night with southerly flow at the surface and aloft, coupled with WAA and warm temperatures at the lower levels. Lows tonight fall into the upper 60s to mid 70s, with Wednesday night lows in the west slightly cooler with likely precip and the front working into the area.
351 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 An upper level low continues to spin across the Carolinas this afternoon, with showers continuing to pivot westward into Virginia and West Virginia. We could see temperatures a degree or two warmer on Wednesday for afternoon highs as the boundary layer warms very slightly. The beginning of the extended will feature showers and a few storms that will be induced by an area of low pressure that will be of tropical origin. As it moves west and then north, moisture and lift associated with the low will bring rain to eastern Kentucky.
By late tomorrow afternoon, a surface cold front is anticipated to stretch from far southwestern Nebraska up through the sandhills and into central South Dakota.
Low level flow will be southeasterly and an upper level ridge will remain in place through this period.
Tonight and Wednesday Persistent high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes and a Rex Block over the eastern U.
129 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 High pressure remains in control for now, with dry and quiet weather. High pressure remains large-and-in-charge over the region, as an upper low stays distantly parked in the Carolinas. Dewpoints meanwhile will only go up slightly into the lower-mid 50s Wednesday; still very comfortable values for this time of year.
Large area of high pressure remains resulting in clear blue skies across much of this entire region. with pronounced ridging and dry air thru the column remaining overhead. Low temps tonight will cool into the low to mid 50s. High Impact Weather Potential: None Synopsis/Forecast: Troughing across the N Rockies will pivot into S Canada through midweek as a cut-off upper-level low continues to sit over the Carolinas.
1246 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Upper level ridge axis bending across the great lakes today, and will be the main weather influence into Thu. At the sfc, high pressure will continue to hold across the new england states. GFS/EC remain in good agreement with slowly shoving the upper level ridge axis southeast for the later half of the week, working a 500 mb trough from southern Canada across the ridge. Some instability to play with, but deep layer shear holds west/northwest, in the cooler air. The trough and northwest flow look to take over for the start of the new work week.
Low pressure will move through central Oregon and Idaho today, keeping shower activity present.
Slightly cooler temps and drier air in place behind the boundary, as temps are in the mid to upper 80s with dewpoints in the lower 60s across portions of South- Central Arkansas and Northeast/North-Central Louisiana. Temps behind the frontal boundary will fall into the low to mid 60s tonight with the remainder of the region in the upper 60s.
Confidence remains high that the upper level low currently over central Washington will move into our region overnight.