Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Activity should start along the sea-breeze to the east, with additional activity developing in the upstate in advance of an approaching cold front. Temperatures will again rise to the lower 90s. Locally heavy rain will be a threat given the high PW with any persistent slow moving or training cells.
510 AM MDT Mon Jun 19 2017 High pressure will drift east across the region today and tonight for dry conditions with relatively light winds and seasonably warm temperatures. Upper level ridge which has been anchored over the SW US briefly amplifies with axis shifting east across the Northern Rockies and MT tonight. Upper level ridge flattens/breaks down late Tuesday in response to an upper trough moving onto the BC coast with a 100+kt upper level jet nosing inland along the US/Canadian border Tuesday and Tuesday night.
A broad low pressure area near the Yucatan Peninsula this morning is forecast to move slowly north into the southern Gulf later today and is likely to develop into a tropical or subtropical cyclone as it tracks across the Gulf through mid week. As for the rest of today high pressure from the Atlantic extending west across the north-central peninsula combined with the low pressure area to the southwest will support an increasing southeast wind flow over the Gulf waters, with winds increasing to Small Craft levels across the central and southern offshore waters by later this morning where Small Craft Advisory headlines are in place, with these conditions then likely spreading across the remainder of the waters by later today or early tonight as the gradient tightens over the region.
Prevailing SSE winds continue through midweek as high pressure noses northward from south Florida to over or just north of the local waters Mon- Wed. Low pressure near the Yucatan peninsula will drift northward into the central Gulf of Mexico this week.
Strong high pressure will continue to build across the southwestern states early this week. A strong ridge of high pressure will affect much of the western CONUS.
1011 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Can see a trough axis over southwest WI on water vapor imagery.
1024 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 An upper level trough will shift east across the Great Lakes, pushing a cold front through Pennsylvania today.
Cold front is located roughly just ahead of the clearing line. A cold front will move across the Mid-State today, with clouds, showers and thunderstorms diminishing from the northwest. Surface winds will be light and westerly ahead of the cold front, becoming northwest with gusts to near 20 kts behind it.
The strong low-level flow across the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters was occurring between a robust subtropical anticyclone centered over the western North Atlantic and a disorganized, warm-core cyclone centered over the southern Gulf of Mexico. Latest geostationary satellite imagery reveals a large mesoscale convective system along the eastern flank of the Gulf cyclone, some 200 nautical miles west and southwest of Key West. At the moment, coverage is highest east of the Seven Mile Bridge. A low pressure area will migrate northwestward from the Yucatan Channel to the central Gulf of Mexico this afternoon through Tuesday. Fresh to strong southeasterly breezes will blow across Florida Keys coastal waters today and tonight, between the low pressure area and a robust subtropical high pressure cell over the western North Atlantic.
The low cloud field across the Big Country area (along/north of I-20) will affect KABI with IFR ceilings early this morning, and MVFR ceilings by mid- to-late morning. /issued 348 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017/ (Today and Tonight) Weak cold front early this morning extends from just south of Mertzon to near Christoval, and then east-northeast into northern Brown County. To the north of the front, temperatures will be cooler today, especially across the area along/north of Interstate 20 where cloud cover will be slow to break up. Temperatures will be a little cooler across the southern part of our area south of the front, where the low-level thermal ridge will be weakened. Lows tonight are expected to be mostly in the lower 70s.
918 AM MDT Mon Jun 19 2017 High pressure ridging will build over the forecast area today. Today will be dry across the area as an upper level ridge continues to build over the Northern Rockies. Ahead of this, temperatures will once again be in the lower 90s for much of the area. Tomorrow evening a cold front will cross the area, along with some thunderstorms. The low-levels will still be fairly dry, with westerly winds throughout much of the day.
741 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Aviation Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible today and Tuesday as cooler air filters into the region.
1154 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Temperatures will rebound a few degrees today as the upper level jet shifts east and takes some of the cooler air with it. With the loss of this cooler air aloft the hit and miss instability showers and thunderstorms will also be less likely. Will maintain a very small chance along and east of the Buffalo Ridge this afternoon, but with CAPE amounts only about 250-500 J/kg and the freezing level up around 9000 feet, vs 8000 feet yesterday, suspect activity will be isolated and not have any small hail.
Cold front is located roughly just ahead of the clearing line. Cold front located roughly just south of I-40.
1033 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 After the cold front crosses today, an upper trough will maintain daily chances for showers and thunderstorms and cooler conditions through midweek. Line of heavier showers associated with the cold front will make it's departure east of the ridges around noon today. The NAM wants to develop a surface reflection and cold front beneath this wave, while the GFS is showing the wave spinning northward, with little to no activity across the area.
717 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 The Northland will remain under the influence of a large, vertically-stacked area of low pressure over eastern Canada. This low, which is over northeast Ontario as of early this morning, will lift into western Quebec this afternoon. Highs will range from the low 60s near the Canadian border into the inland Arrowhead, to the middle and upper 60s across the rest of the forecast area. High pressure will build into the Northland Tuesday. The more plentiful sunshine will make for a warmer day. High pressure will bring dry weather to the Northland on Tuesday night, as we remain in northwest flow aloft.
The low cloud deck will slowly break up through early afternoon with mostly sunny skies for the remainder of the day. This activity was tied to a subtle trough in NW flow shown best in the 00z RAOB plots from 700-500 mb. We suspect this elevated convection may expand in coverage as the trough impinges on an elevated Fn layer across the southern half of the forecast area. as the trough departs to our SE, followed by a slow erosion of stratus. Stratus is likely to return overnight as even richer dewpoints advect westward, but this improved moisture is a moot point for precip chances as NW flow weakens considerably within a burgeoning upper ridge.
High pressure aloft will prevail over the area today for warmer weather. A weak cold front will bring a threat of showers to the region mainly later tonight and Tuesday.
608 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Deep northwesterly flow across the Upper Midwest with upper troughing over the Great Lakes will continue early this week bringing seasonably cool high temps in the 60s and 70s through Tuesday with lows in the 50s. As this system passes to the east on Tuesday, weak ridging will build into the region with drier weather expected for later Tuesday. Lows Tuesday night may drop into 40s under the ridge axis, especially across central Wisconsin.
515 AM MDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Strong high pressure across the western US will build eastward and plant its axis over the Four Corners states for the next few days. Temperatures will be in the upper 90s and challenging 100 in the low valleys on Monday, then exceeding 100 and potentially reaching near record temps starting Tuesday.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 65 87 67 / 60 20 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 63 85 65 / 70 20 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 82 61 86 65 / 70 20 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 79 60 82 60 / 80 20 10 10.
757 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 An upper level trough will shift east across the Great Lakes, pushing a cold front through Pennsylvania today.
630 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Northwest flow prevailing over the region this morning as a closed low spins south of Hudson Bay and upper ridging builds across the American West. As this occurs, high pressure building into the upper Midwest will send a weak frontal boundary south towards our area, with latest model runs suggesting possible precip development by Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday will definitely be warmer with upper 80s returning to much of the area.
The other item of interest in the low that is now emerging into the southern Gulf just north of the Yucatan.
526 AM MDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Upper level analysis has broad trof to the east with broad ridge across the western CONUS. At the surface, cool high pressure remains across the northern Rockies and northern Plains. Western upper ridge will slowly shift over the area today and Tuesday, resulting in warm and dry weather.
1019 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Showers dissipating quickly this morning in advance and in the wake of a slow moving cold front which as of 15z was located just to the north of the I-20 Corridor. As a result, much of our region missed out on the expected rainfall and this will likely hamper the possibility of further development this afternoon along the cold front as it moves south of the I-20 Corridor.
The axis of the highest snowfall amounts is from Lexington southwest to McCook and in a line southeast of there into north central Kansas. Additionally temperatures are quite a bit cooler than earlier thought, updated temperatures with some of the higher-res guidance that was following trends much better. Lows tonight are currently expected in the low teens, but am worried this isn't low enough with some snow on the ground and clearing during the early evening/overnight hours before clouds move in overnight.
The cold front moves across our area tonight, however a mixed airmass with winds of 10 to 15 mph and increasing cloud cover will keep lows above normal.
Still some strong wind gusts in the higher elevations and foothills, but also expect this to be fairly short lived. Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 28 46 33 / 100 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 25 42 30 / 100 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 45 25 42 31 / 100 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 24 37 26 / 90 30 10 10 TN.
The exception may be the plateau and the highest terrain where a slight chance will linger through 06Z.
1004 AM EST Sun Feb 4 2018 Rain and snow will return to the area today with crossing low pressure. Warm advection ahead of the low should result in a mix or change over to rain from PIT S. The exception would be the Laurel Highlands and Garrett county MD where the highest terrain should stay mainly snow. Areas N of I 80 and the higher elevations should see 2 to 4 inches of snow through Sunday evening, with locations above 2500ft an inch or so more. Precip will become all snow this evening as the low's associated cold front crosses. Scattered snow showers are expected after FROPA with upper troughing and cold NW flow. Snow showers will taper off late tonight as high pressure builds in.
Light northeasterly winds expected today behind a weak prefrontal trough moving through. Once the fog lifts later this morning we'll see plenty of sunshine under a light northerly flow at the surface, as a prefrontal trough moves through while southwesterly winds aloft pump in much warmer air ahead of the approaching cold front. Cold front moves through during the late evening/overnight hours tonight bringing with it more of an northeasterly flow but not all that strong. Temperatures Monday will be cooler than today but still looking right around average.
Low level moisture return ahead of a cold front is resulting in widespread fog across southeast and east central Oklahoma, which may spread into northwest Arkansas by daybreak. A strong cold front will sweep south over the region this morning, with an abrupt wind shift to the north, with gusts to around 20 kts.
A cold front will move southwestward over the region tonight, with gusty northeast winds behind it. /issued 320 AM CST Sun Feb 4 2018/ An upper level trough is over the Upper Midwest and extends southward over Louisiana. As the upper trough moves eastward today, a cold front will push southward towards the area. This will result in cooler high temperatures today across the northeast CWA with warmer temperatures across southern and western sections of the area.
High pressure aloft will remain over the eastern Pacific with a persistent northwest flow across the Great Basin over the next several days.
Strong high pressure will remain in place near the West Coast through the remainder through the week, maintaining unseasonably warm daytime temperatures across the region. The strong ridge of high pressure centered just off the West Coast remains firmly in control of our weather. Taking this slight cooling into account, high temperatures will still be about 15 degrees warmer than normal and record highs will remain a possibility.
Lows generally in the low teens east to the low 20s west.
Winds will switch around to the west and northwest late in the TAF cycle as the cold front moves through.
Currently we have the old cold front that was in the gulf move back north last night to around the I-10 corridor before stalling. On top of all of this a cold front in Arkansas will drop down making the coast by this evening this will push the moisture back into the gulf with overnight temperatures dropping into the 40s to start the new work week.
You can see some upper level clouds riding over the ridge into our CWA this morning complicating the fog forecast, but it appears the fog that has already formed will stick until mid morning.
Light winds will give way to stronger northeasterly winds as a cold front moves through the area this afternoon. /issued 335 AM CST Sun Feb 4 2018/ Longwave trough over eastern North America will broaden mid-week and amplify a bit as a wave skirts the back side of western ridge and digs into the south-central U.
535 AM CST Sun Feb 4 2018 Surface winds will shift to northeast and east as cold front arrives. Large spread in high temperatures today with northeast sections struggling to rise above freezing, while southwest expected to reach the lower 60s. By late Monday afternoon, however, next cold front arrives in northern sections, sweeping through all of forecast area Monday evening.
The associated cold front will enter our northern zones, north of I-4, late tonight the push southward toward Lake Okeechobee by around sunrise Mon morning. Low pressure system to swing across the Gulf Coast States today and drag a cold front across ECFL later tonight into early Mon morning. Observing winds 15-20kts/20kts over much of the Gulf Stream, though trends are for decreasing winds this evening with the approach of a cold front and a weakening pressure gradient.
342 AM MST Sun Feb 4 2018 High pressure will continue to affect the Southwest with well above normal temperatures this week.
455 AM CST Sun Feb 4 2018 Rain has exited the region this morning with the departing upper level disturbance, but what the rain left behind with damp soils and saturation in the low levels has resulted in areas of dense fog over much of the region. As a result, high temperatures will climb into the 60s areawide with a weak cold front traversing the area and helping to clear out any lingering moisture. A fairly progressive pattern best characterizes the upcoming work week as we start out with a nice dry day on Monday in the wake of today's weak cold front.
547 AM CST Sun Feb 4 2018 As of 08z Sunday, the cold front has just begun to move into the forecast area. A secondary trof will slide southeast through area this afternoon. Some decent mid-level forcing with it, but with so much dry air in the low levels, only expect some flurries with its passage through region.
Strong high pressure aloft near the West Coast will maintain dry conditions with unseasonably warm daytime temperatures during the upcoming week. Dry and warmer than normal weather pattern will remain in place this week. There will be very minor day-to-day changes in temperatures as a ridge of high pressure aloft remains positioned off the west coast.
638 AM EST Sun Feb 4 2018 Low pressure moving through the central Great Lakes will push a cold front through the region today along with widespread rain.
Precipitation chances increase late this afternoon into tonight ahead of an upper short wave trough entering the Pac NW.
655 AM CST Sun Feb 4 2018 The NAM/GFS/HRRR/RUC all trended south overnight with the higher snowfall totals, and then as the snow has really gotten underway this morning, the HRRR/RUC and 06z NAM have trended back north. The axis of the highest snowfall amounts is from Lexington southwest to McCook and in a line southeast of there into north central Kansas. Additionally temperatures are quite a bit cooler than earlier thought, updated temperatures with some of the higher-res guidance that was following trends much better. Lows tonight are currently expected in the low teens, but am worried this isn't low enough with some snow on the ground and clearing during the early evening/overnight hours before clouds move in overnight.
1036 AM EST Sun Feb 4 2018 Currently - High pressure in the North Atlantic is racing away eastwards while a mid latitude trough becomes increasingly aligned along the Atlantic seaboard. This mornings sounding indicated drier and warmer air sneaking in through the lower levels. In addition, lower level ridging is aligned nearby, across Cuba. A trough moving into the Atlantic states and a high moving rapidly away across the Atlantic will result in a continuation of relaxing winds.
Otherwise, a weak cold front will move across the area this afternoon turning winds around to the northeast.
521 AM EST Sun Feb 4 2018 Rain and snow will return to the area today with crossing low pressure. Warm advection ahead of the low should result in a mix or change over to rain from PIT S. The exception would be the Laurel Highlands and Garrett county MD where the highest terrain should stay mainly snow. Areas N of I 80 and the higher elevations should see 2 to 4 inches of snow through Sunday evening, with locations above 2500ft an inch or so more. Precip will become all snow this evening as the low's associated cold front crosses. Scattered snow showers are expected after FROPA with upper troughing and cold NW flow. Snow showers will taper off late tonight as high pressure builds in.
512 AM CST Sun Feb 4 2018 A cold front is currently pushing through the CWA and is expected to quickly move into southern Missouri by sunrise.
The cold air continues to pour over Rogers and MacDonald passes, as well as through the Highway 12 and 200 corridors. The remainder of the Northern Rockies will experience relatively high snow levels during this disturbance so most valleys will receive rain, with snow being confined to the higher terrain roughly above 5500 feet. Flash freezing could occur and thus, cause black ice to become rather widespread.
445 AM MST Sun Feb 4 2018 Early this morning a cold front was over northeast and east central CO, and working its way south and west. As a result of the frontal passage, temps will be cooler today acrs the southeast plains, but the highs will be a little tricky. At this time, it is looking like highs today could range from the lower 30s along the eastern border, to the lower 50s over the srn I-25 corridor. The rest of the mtns and the high valleys are expected to have dry weather today and mild temps.
546 AM CST Sun Feb 4 2018 This morning, a cold front is lingering back along the Mississippi River Valley to the northwest. Skies clearing closer to sunset and through the overnight in combination with light winds under the ridge axis will result in efficient radiational cooling.
Large spread in high temperatures today with northeast sections struggling to rise above freezing, while southwest expected to reach the lower 60s. By late Monday afternoon, however, next cold front arrives in northern sections, sweeping through all of forecast area Monday evening.
A 130-kt jet is pushing into the northern plains in northwest flow, between a broad trough to the east and a ridge to the west. Satellite shows cloudy skies over SD and northeastern WY, but a line of clearing is moving down from ND with high pressure. Snow will end from north to south early this morning, as high pressure pushes into SD. Temperatures there will be warmer, in the 20s, while western SD will be in the teens.
533 AM CST Sun Feb 4 2018 Much cooler air is surging into the area behind a cold front that has worked into the Central Plains by 08Z. With drier and cooler air working into the area, expect light snow/flurries to come to an end yielding to mostly clear skies.
Ridge of high pressure will remain anchored off the West Coast, leading to unseasonably warm temperatures across interior NorCal. The upper ridge will continue to shunt all precipitation well north of the state with fair conditions and above normal highs persisting through the period.
422 AM MST Sun Feb 4 2018 A 130-kt jet is pushing into the northern plains in northwest flow, between a broad trough to the east and a ridge to the west. Satellite shows cloudy skies over SD and northeastern WY, but a line of clearing is moving down from ND with high pressure. Snow will end from north to south early this morning, as high pressure pushes into SD. Temperatures there will be warmer, in the 20s, while western SD will be in the teens. Most of the precipitation will be snow, but some WAA across northeastern WY/southwestern SD may result in a mix of rain/snow or a little freezing rain. SREF precip type and NAM/GFS soundings support this, so added a mention of some freezing rain for a small area from 06-12Z Monday.
Once the fog lifts later this morning we'll see plenty of sunshine under a light northerly flow at the surface, as a prefrontal trough moves through while southwesterly winds aloft pump in much warmer air ahead of the approaching cold front. Cold front moves through during the late evening/overnight hours tonight bringing with it more of an northeasterly flow but not all that strong. Temperatures Monday will be cooler than today but still looking right around average.
Narrow line of convection moved through eastern areas along warm front but remained below severe limits in our local area as no reports were received. High pressure will begin to nose into area on Sunday with clearing away from the lake. Expect lake clouds to erode fairly quickly in afternoon given return flow and exit of thermal trough along with mid level dry air already in place.
1241 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 [Through 06z Monday] A thin line of showers associated with a cold front will move across the area through the early morning hours. 21Z surface analysis showed a cold front stretching across the Tennessee valley and lower Mississippi valley. A cool and dry airmass will pour into the region on Sunday in the wake of the cold front. Expect highs to reach into the lower to mid 60s for most locations.
Sunny, windy and warmer. A modest warming at 850 mb to near 8C and good downslope components (along with full sun and dry ground) will allow for most locations to reach the lower to perhaps mid 60s. Medium range models show no hints of any pattern changes, with a polar vortex finding a home near Hudson Bay and eastern Canada, while a strong upper ridge remains stagnant over the eastern Pacific near Baja California. At noon on Thanksgiving Day, 12z ECMWF depicts a deep cold 500 dm low at Hudson Bay, and an impressive 595 dm ridge near San Diego. So, the forecast is reduced to minor dry cold fronts, wind shifts, periods of cirrus and temperature fluctuations. Monday will be warmer, well into the 60s.
Building sfc ridging influences are also anticipated thru 20/06Z.