Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EVENING BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE LOW INSTABILITY EXPECTED. A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND FALLING TEMPS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. A COUPLE OF COOLER/COLDER DAYS WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY BEFORE A MODEST REBOUND BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
147 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT HAD PASSED THROUGH THE MID STATE THIS MORNING. THEN RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT EARLY TUESDAY.
A RATHER MILD DAY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SSW TO NNE ACROSS NRN MS AND AL THIS MORNING, WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS RIDING EASTWARD ALONG IT, MAINLY AFFECTING CNTRL AND ERN TN. MODELS PROG THIS COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY SAG THROUGH OUR AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH OFF/ON SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
Water vapor showing a vigorous upper trough axis digging across the Desert Southwest this morning. with the upper low now centered directly over Las Vegas.
The instability (CAPE) still remains surprising low, even in the high resolution guidance, but allowing for the shear and modest lapse rates, damaging wind gusts still appear to be the primary severe weather factor.
DEEP BROAD TROUGH WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NATION/S MIDSECTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST.
1130 AM EST MON FEB 1 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE HIGHEST BLDU THREAT APPEARS TO BE AT KLBB AFTER 20Z. /ISSUED 458 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016/ STRONG UPPER LOW ROTATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS STATES TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING. AS SUCH WE ARE UPGRADING THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING WHICH WILL RUN FROM NOON TILL 6 PM. THE HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ENTER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AROUND NOON AND THEN SPREAD RAPIDLY EASTWARD. THE HIGH WINDS SHOULD APPROACH A LUBBOCK TO PLAINVIEW LINE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 PM AND CONTINUING EAST. COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE DEPARTING WIND STORM ON TUESDAY LOOK ON TRACK.
SURFACE GRADIENTS TURN NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT BASIN, HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE TROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SE TONIGHT THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON AND INTO NEVADA WITH A FEW FLURRIES AT MOST IN SRN HARNEY.
Vigorous mid/upper level low is still slated to eject ne through the Plains and into the Midwest Tuesday/Tuesday evening. Associated pre-frontal surface trof will be approaching the mid MS River Valley by early afternoon. Moisture levels will also be increasing ahead of the front Tuesday afternoon, with some guidance now surging sfc dew points into the lower 60s prior to trof passage. It should also be noted that extremely highly sheared environments have been know to rip convection apart due to the highly tilted nature of the storms, so the extremely high shear could be a mitigating factor, along with the capping aloft. It is still looking as though the higher svr risk will be over wrn KY, where high dew points/instability may lie.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. AS COLD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
Under mostly sunny skies temperatures were warming into the low 60s. With the lower trop remaining well mixed tonight, overnight lows will only fall into the upper 40s or lower 50s.
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHEARS APART AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE TUESDAY.
THE UPPER LOW BRINGING THE CURRENT SNOW TO THE REGION WILL MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT HAD PASSED THROUGH THE MID STATE THIS MORNING. THEN RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. THEN CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR/LIFR AGAIN AS WARM FRONT BRINGS FOG AND STRATUS. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS WITH DEVELOPING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE CRANKING UP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THINKING WITH RESPECT TO COLD FRONT TIMING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. COOLER AIR ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 40S.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE WELL TO OUR SOUTH NEAR THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO BORDER WITH CLOUDS REACHING BACK TO SOUTHEAST IDAHO FROM BEAR LAKE TO ABOUT DRIGGS.
933 AM PST MON FEB 1 2016 An upper level trough will slowly move out of the region later today.
1101 AM MST MON FEB 1 2016 THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE FAVORED 4-CORNER AREA TODAY AND THEN INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY THE LOW WILL BE OVER NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT.
A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. UPPER RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY MOVE IN TONIGHT AND SHOULD KEEP CENTRAL INDIANA DRY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
COOLER DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKING TO BE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED ONSHORE. BUT ONE MORE SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND THROUGH THE MEDFORD CWA THIS MORNING. A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
230 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NEAR OR INTO THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TONIGHT AND BECOME DIFFUSE.
THE GFS/EURO AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DISPLAY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE INTENSE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASINGLY FRONTOLYTIC MIDLEVEL FGEN TO PRESENT A SHARP WEST TO EAST CUTOFF IN SNOW.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FROM THE LOWER LEVELS UPWARD TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS HIGH DEWPOINT AIR ADVECTING OVER VERY COLD EASTERN GULF SHELF WATERS.
Satl imagery is indc a strong mid/upper level trof moving across Northern New Mexico. A Pacific Cold front (which brought a quick dusting of snow to El Paso) will move across the area tonight. As the mid/upper level trough lifts northeast a modified Arctic front will drop south thru the Southern Plains and bring below normal temps through the end of the week with overnight lows in the 20s.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
450 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AND CHEYENNE RIDGE. ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE. THEREFORE SOME OF THE HIGHEST SNOW RATES AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THOSE AREAS. BUT WARMER THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
Surface progs are also in excellent agreement, albeit a tad further north as has been the trend, and track the low across northeast KS and far northwest MO Tuesday afternoon. Given the northward trend and degree of warm air advection will not be surprised if the low tracks a bit north of the current progs. Wrap around precipitation from the departing deformation zone may allow for some minor snow accumulations as temperatures quickly drop with the cold frontal passage.
403 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES NE WITH THE LOW. A STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EVENING BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE LOW INSTABILITY EXPECTED. A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND FALLING TEMPS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. A COUPLE OF COOLER/COLDER DAYS WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY BEFORE A MODEST REBOUND BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE UPPER LOW IS TRACKING JUST EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AT THIS TIME. SNOW RATES STILL LOOK TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST AND COLDER AIR MOVES ALOFT. ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AND CHEYENNE RIDGE. ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE. THEREFORE SOME OF THE HIGHEST SNOW RATES AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THOSE AREAS. BUT WARMER THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
/ISSUED / LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS VESTIGES OF HIGH PRESSURE HANGING ON OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF GEORGIA WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION IS SLOWLY TRANSITIONING AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL ATTEMPT TO TEMPS IN CHECK THIS AFTERNOON BUT BETTER CHANCES OF CLEARING TO THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS APPROACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S.
NEXT ISSUE IS THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT MARCHING EAST TONIGHT AND SHOULD TRAVERSE THE AREA BETWEEN 2 AM AND 8 AM.
913 AM PST MON FEB 1 2016 An upper level trough will slowly move out of the region later today.
STILL EXPECT THE WAVE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW TO GIVE THE AREA A COUPLE OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BEFORE STEADY SNOWFALL ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.
337 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016 (Tonight and Tuesday) Temperatures continue to run near 15 degrees above climo, with readings in the low to mid 80s across much of the CWA this afternoon. However, a Pacific cold front will move quickly across west central TX this evening, shifting winds to the west and ushering in much cooler temperatures. Winds will be gusty for a period in the wake of this cold front, but should eventually decrease to 10-15 mph during the early morning hours. Temperatures will likely fall into the lower 40s across the area by sunrise, with some locations dipping into the 30s. Johnson (Tuesday Night through next Monday) Secondary cold front will push south across West Central Texas Tuesday night, ushering in a colder airmass.
COOLER AIR WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
ELSEWHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW HAS KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK.
1050 AM MST MON FEB 1 2016 THE COLD UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE CO-NM BORDER TODAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD UPPER DYNAMICS AND COLD ADVECTION TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE NOW SEEMS TO FAVOR THE WESTERN SAN JUANS AND THE PICEANCE BASIN INTO THE LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN BASICALLY MISSING THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
although MVFR cigs will rapidly spread north out of Texas ahead of an approaching cold front.
COOLER WITH CLOUDS AND MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO OFFSETTING INSOLATION. WED-THU: COOLER TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED FOR WED. SUGGEST TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON FRI. TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE ON SAT-SAT NIGHT AND ANOTHER TROUGH ON SUN. IT APPEARS THIS LATER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. AS THE APPROACHING WINTER STORM AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO KANSAS. THE KRSL TERMINAL HAS THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR LOWER VSBYS AND CIGS IN SNOW. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE LOW THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT WHICH MAY AFFECT THE KICT AND KCNU TERMINALS.
MAJORITY OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE A MCS MOVING INTO THE MONDAK AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND TRACKING SOUTHEAST.
349 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 UPPER HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BILL TRACKS TO THE NORTH OF ALABAMA.
UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND PLACEMENT OF BEST CONVERGENCE.
WITH THE EMPHASIS STARTING TO SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE WEST WITH THE HIGHER PWAT VALUES.
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOCAL COAST AND EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AND LOCALLY WARMER.
323 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 A RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE REMNANTS OF TD BILL CONTINUE TO CHURN OVER E OK/OZARKS AND ANOTHER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THE REMNANTS OF TD BILL SLOWLY APPROACHING THE OH/MS RIVER VALLEYS WILL BE THE PRIMARY PLAYERS IN THE SHORT-TERM. THEN, THE DESERT SOUTHWEST RIDGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY PLAYER IN THE EXTENDED. 77 HOT (THOUGH NOT AS HOT AS IT HAS BEEN), HUMID, AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW 90S TODAY WHILE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW 70S. WITH SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE RELAXING TODAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD RELAX SLIGHTLY (AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER).
WITH MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL FLOWING NORTHEASTWARD AND A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE NORTHWEST KILX CWA TODAY.
WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS TEXAS AS TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINS TRAPPED BETWEEN RIDGES TO THE WEST AND EAST. WITH FORECAST PW VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES FOR THE WESTERN VALLEY AND CONTINUED TROUGHING ALOFT.
PREFERRED THE WARMER NAM-BASED GUIDANCE IN A BLEND FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A TAD MILDER WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND A 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
336 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 LEE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL GA. THE HIGH CENTER OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE US WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON FRIDAY. NLISTEMAA UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN SUCH A DOMINANT FEATURE RECENTLY.
850 MB LAYER DEWPOINTS REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 CELSIUS AND SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S INTO THE EVENING WITH DRYING MAINLY OCCURRING BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS THIS MORNING JUST AS THE MID LEVELS DRY WITH WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY.
Friday will be cooler and the day to watch for scattered thunderstorms across the northern mountains, and gusty winds combining with low relative humidity levels. A small chance of showers and thunderstorms will return for the beginning of the next work week as a weak upper level low moves over the Inland Northwest. I still expect they will come in and hamper the fall somewhat, but trends suggest they may be a bit cooler than the previous forecast.
613 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT WELL OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA.
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS THROUGH FRIDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
HAS (RE)GENERATED THIS HIGH RAINFALL-PRODUCING BANDING. UPPER RIDGING NEVER DOES COMPLETELY ANCHOR ITSELF BACK OVER TEXAS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. RATHER LOWER NORTHERN MEXICO HEIGHTS (INVERTED TROUGHING) MAY APPROACH THE VALLEY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN IA INTO SW NEBRASKA. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THIS FEATURE GETTING HUNG UP OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. 850MB TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS REACHING THE CENTURY MARK SAT FOR CENTRAL AND PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHICH WILL BE SOUTH OF THE SAGGING COLD FRONT. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE DESERT SW INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND REMAIN PERSISTENT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE AREA TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE TODAY THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID NINETIES THIS AFTERNOON. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING BREEZY WINDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR MOST NORTHERN AREAS PARTICULARLY THE MONTANA DIVIDE.
321 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH ALONG THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY WILL BEGIN TO PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY. THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING INTO TONIGHT MAINTAINING GOOD INSTABILITY. THE REMNANTS OF BILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY AS SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO ENTER THE AREA.
358 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION TODAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. ON FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM NEW ENGLAND AND THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE, WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD SETTING UP A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO AS AN H5 VORT MAX COMING OFF THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE ROCKIES, DIPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY, LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 80S(F) TO POSSIBLY THE LOWER 90S(F) THIS AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL TREND IN THE EXTENDED IS FOR MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH GENERALLY MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS THAN HAS BEEN SEEN IN RECENT DAYS AND WEEKS. HOWEVER THE MODELS CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND WITH THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST, AND THE SUPERBLEND HAS ALREADY WARMED HIGHS FOR FRIDAY UNIFORMLY INTO THE LOWER 90S.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH ALONG THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY WILL BEGIN TO PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY. THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING INTO TONIGHT MAINTAINING GOOD INSTABILITY. THE REMNANTS OF BILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY AS SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO ENTER THE AREA.
Surface obs put the center of Bill over the red river valley while a broad area of high pressure moves into the upper Midwest. Track of the upper low a bit further east in reference to far east central areas of the CWA suggested precipitation will remain east of the CWA.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AND EAST TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND MID/UPPER RIDGING ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY LOOSEN THEIR GRIP ON THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOWS WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE AND ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 70S TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW AND MIDDLE 90S. FACTORED WITH DEW POINTS HOVERING IN THE LOWER 70S.
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST A DEEPENING UPPER LOW WILL BACK THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE STATE AND ACCELERATE IT TODAY. THIS WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN LEE SIDE SURFACE TROF AND PULL WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE SIDE TROF AND DIFFERENTIAL OROGRAPHIC HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GET SCATTERED STORMS GOING BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST. BETTER FORCING FOR DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS ON FRIDAY AS NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF DRIVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL PROVIDE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SE U. THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST TO MID 90S INLAND WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 100-105. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S. HEAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S COAST TO MID 90S INTERIOR.
WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE COAST DECREASE TODAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH IS INLAND TODAY. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE THERMAL TROUGH STARTS TO DEEPEN AGAIN WITH OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COASTAL RANGES.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 80 IN THE NORTHEAST THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE WEST.
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
350 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE THE CHANCE AND COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE CONVECTION ALONG SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. GENERATED BY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WARM FRONT. THE AFTERNOON ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST OVER THE DAKOTAS.
THERE IS EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS WITH EXPLICIT CONVECTION THAT THIS BOW ECHO WILL CONT PROPAGATING SE DOWN THE WARM FRONT AND INTO S-CNTRL NEB IN THE 6AM-9AM TIME FRAME. THE MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS THAT COULD GET INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
620 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF QUEBEC AND CROSS MAINE TONIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW AROUND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BOOST TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE EAST OF JAMES BAY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS QUEBEC. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH COOLER ALONG THE COAST. BUT NW AREAS MAY BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE 40S TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE SHOWERS MOVE OUT AND A COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW IN THE FRONT'S WAKE, USHERING IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS.
HEATING WILL BE A PLAYER AND EVEN THE HRRR MAY BE OFF AS CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY GUST OUT INTO THE WARMER AREAS. IS A LARGE DRY AIR PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF UNDER THE BERMUDA RIDGE WITH A RESULTING SHARP SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND UP TO NEAR MEMPHIS. THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH ALL THE HIGH WATER IS PLACE.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY.
210 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 A FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES TOMORROW NIGHT DRAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT. LIFTING THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT. THINK WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES DRAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES.
133 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION PROVIDING HOT TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
308 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT WELL OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA.
LATEST OBS INDICATE THE FRONT IS BEGINNING TO CREEP BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT TO RESIDE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH. LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. BY FRIDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL NORTH INTO S DAKOTA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING OVER THE CWA. RIDGE RIDING SHORT WAVE WILL FAVOR STORMS IN THE DAKOTAS WHICH MAY CLIP NORTHERN NEB.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 18/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW THE RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE WEST COAST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND A TROUGH OVER WEST TEXAS AND CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. THE AIRMASS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY AS THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST MOVES FARTHER EAST ACROSS ARIZONA AND SHUNTS THIS MOISTURE FARTHER TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.