Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Mid/upper level high pressure centered across TX will maintain mostly clear to partly cloudy skies through tonight. The environment is slightly drier today and will continue tonight, which will lead to lows being a couple of degrees cooler. The drier airmass will also result in highs on Friday being a few degrees warmer. Models show the mid/upper level high pressure moving northeast Friday as an inverted trough approaches the TX coast from the east.
It will be warmer with high temperatures in the lower to upper 90s. High temperatures rise into the lower 90s to around 103 degrees. Low temperatures are expected to be in the middle 50s to middle 60s with a cold front moving through.
Surface dewpoints have fallen nicely following yesterdays weak cold frontal passage and afternoon mixing is dropping dewpoints further.
130 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 A stalled frontal boundary along the Blue Ridge this afternoon meander in this area into early Friday before dissipating.
Of course over the lower deserts early in the season that could bring about blowing dust issues. Coordinated with Phoenix office (Thanks PHX) about possibility of including parts of the lower desert in Marginal severe area on SPC outlook.
228 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 A weak cold frontal passage this morning will bring bring cooler and much less humid conditions to the area through Friday. Stout srn US centered upper ridge will retrograde into west TX this period. Weak cold front in association with upper disturbance lifting newd across James Bay will wash across the OH valley this morning. This will squash yesterdays toasty low level thermal ridge and yield more pleasant, near normal temps and much lower humidity as much drier air pushes south out of srn Canada. Hot srn plains upper ridge persists yet looks to retrograde further toward the four corners by the end of this period.
246 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Thunderstorms, a few of which could be strong to severe, are expected through this evening across eastern portions of Southwest through North Central Montana as a Pacific cold front cross the region.
(The rest of today ) Focused corridor of stronger low level warm advection remains just north of the forecast area while associated mid cloud has kept temps cooler near the OK / KS border.
A low pressure system over western Nevada will continue to advance eastward through the night and on Friday. With the low still lurking over northern Utah on Friday combined with a weak cold front advancing in from the west, we could still see some isolated thunderstorms, once the nocturnal convection dissipates, Friday afternoon across the southeast highlands as well as the Island Park region.
Continued to trend toward the higher end of guidance spectrum for temps and lower end of the spectrum for dewpoints. Outside of the area impacted by the lake cooling, should see highs mostly in the lower 90s Friday.
HRRR and some of the high-res guidance show an extreme amount of mixing tomorrow afternoon with dew points dropping even into the 40s in eastern Mississippi, but a more modest amount of mixing into the 50s or low 60s is more reasonable. Even with dew points around 60, the high temps of around 99-100 would yield RH values below 30 percent for parts of eastern Mississippi - notably drier and more pleasant than the recent soupy conditions.
252 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 An upper-level composite analysis this afternoon reveals a deep layer mean anticyclone centered over Texas, with anticyclonic flow trajectories extending southeastward across the entire Gulf Basin, Florida Peninsula, and Keys. Nevertheless, a puny cumulus cloud line has been able to form along the lower and middle Keys, providing at least some localized relief from the late June UV rays. The resident air mass, although maritime tropical, is actually not too bad for late June, with current air temperatures generally in the mid to upper 80s and dewpoint temperatures in the lower 70s.
However, weak cooler air aloft advecting in from the north behind the front may do more to keep highs in this range.
201 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 A stalled frontal boundary along the Blue Ridge this afternoon meander in this area into early Friday before dissipating.
1123 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Broad, low-amplitude upper-level ridging will remain intact across the central Rockies today w/ 500 mb heights remaining at/above 584 dm across the CWA. Expect ridging may begin to break down over the Great Basin into western Wyoming into the mid/late afternoon hours as a mid-level short wave ejects E-NE toward the region. Convection will become more widespread across all of southeast Wyo and the western Neb Panhandle on Friday as the primary trough axis translates from W-E across the CWA. Trending cooler for western zones with the passage of a strong cold front, while the western Nebraska Panhandle may stay quite warm for one more day (highs in the 90s) before fropa occurs late in the afternoon.
208 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 High pressure will extend across the region through Friday, bringing drier but seasonable conditions.
Water vapor shows flat ridge from the Rockies to the Upper Midwest with upper trough digging into the Pacific Northwest. supported by latest CAMs Upper trough over Pacific Northwest moves into the Northern Plains Friday. with cold front sliding through the western Dakotas Friday afternoon. Buoyancy/shear favorable for severe thunderstorms along and ahead of the cold front.
1045 AM PDT Thu Jun 23 2022 The passing of a weak cold front will bring breezy winds today with cooler temperatures. High pressure returns Friday and brings a gradual warming trend.
303 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 The surface cold front is to the south of the region, and we will be sitting under high pressure and northerly flow for the remainder of this short term period. Temperatures are cooler (and feel cooler) than the past few days with overnight lows in the mid-60s.
251 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Currently have a large area of upper high pressure centered over TX with a compact upper trough approaching the Great Basin. This will allow a cold front to sink south across the Central and Southern Plains. The bigger story will finally be some cooler temps. MVFR and IFR cigs are possible under the heavier showers and storms with the highest confidence across portions of central KS this evening.
1218 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Flat upper level ridging will spread across the area today which will result in an increase in southerly winds and humidity. Dew point temperatures are expected to climb back into the lower to middle 60s while highs top out from the upper 80s to mid 90s, with the highest readings in central SD.
High temperatures will likely reach or exceed 90F again, before cooler but gusty outflow winds arrive in the afternoon.
Discussion: The weak cold front has moved east of the Appalachian crest this afternoon. Dew points have dropped into the lower 50s northern Cumberland Plateau to the mid 50s to lower 60s elsewhere.
With the thermal ridge firmly in place, temperatures will continue to rise into the mid 90s through this afternoon. These storms will be firing off the cold front that will sweep through starting Friday morning. Uncertainties with this is the timing of the cold front moving through and where convection will start.
Temperatures will remain mild to locally hot across the interior, but cooler at the coast. Today and Tonight: A closed upper circulation located across central CA this morning will devolve to an open-wave trough later today while lifting away from the area. This will keep readings a bit cooler along the coast today, but temperatures should still top out mostly in the mid 70s to around 80 in these areas.
This area is under the influence of high pressure. Moisture is returning northward on the west side of the High, over eastern Plains states.
A cold front will stall in north Florida over the weekend.
(This evening through Friday) Temperatures were once again in the upper 90s to low 100s this afternoon as a 590dam mid-level ridge continues to be the dominant feature across the region. Tomorrow, the ridge will strengthen slightly and the airmass will dry out somewhat.
259 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 High pressure will build across the Commonwealth into the first part of the upcoming weekend.
1025 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 High pressure will provide fair weather across central Illinois today.
how many different ways can you say hot and dry? High pressure over Central TX continues to dominate our weather pattern with upper 90s today and triple digits on Friday as 850mb temps continue to climb. Southerly surface winds will increase slightly this afternoon with lee troughing over CO, not doing much in the way of cooling us off. The only area that could even remotely see weather will be the higher elevations of far western Eddy County with a few storms developing off of the Sacramento Mountains both this afternoon and Friday afternoon.
Since we are seeing some storms starting to develop in response to forcing arriving from the southwest, so I tend to favor the higher severe threat indicated by the other HREF members. The weekend then cools down after the cold front moves through the area.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will gradually translate eastward across the region during the short term period, keeping very quiet and generally less humid weather in place across the area under mostly clear skies, with just some occasional thin high cloud. Winds will generally be light even in the presence of a well-mixed boundary layer during the day on Friday, but slight rises in low level thicknesses and temps suggest surface temps should be a degree or so warmer tomorrow, and this agrees well with a blend of guidance. Overnight lows should be near to just below persistence with dewpoints a bit lower today and tonight, while increasing low level temps and higher dewpoints suggest lows about 2-4 degrees warmer Friday night.
1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 High pressure will provide fair weather across central Illinois today.
(This evening through Friday Night) The massive upper level high responsible for the scorching temperatures across the southern Plains and deep South today will remain in place Friday, with a subtle drift back to the east, placing the ridge axis comfortably across the ArkLaTex throughout the afternoon and early evening hours.
1151 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 (Issued 1150 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022) High pressure extending from MO to lower MI will move to the lower Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley for late tnt-Friday. Weak swly sfc flow around the high will maintain weak warm advection. Gehring (Issued 327 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022) Today and Tonight: High pressure over southern Wisconsin this morning will bring mostly clear skies and light winds. A lake breeze will keep areas along the Lake Michigan shoreline a little cooler. The high will move over Ohio tonight bringing light southwest winds to Wisconsin.
Slightly cooler today and further cooling Friday as an upper low in British Columbia moves into northern Idaho.
Otherwise, high pressure builds in through the weekend.
A CU field is already developing along the higher terrain of the Bradshaw Mountains, Mogollon Rim, Black Mesa, and the Chuskas. Our current synoptic pattern is Arizona is sitting between a closed low over California and a ridge over Texas. This low is forecast to move north of our area by Friday, leaving room for the ridge over Texas to set- up over the Four Corners.
1253 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 High pressure remains in full control of SE MI weather as it slides through the central Great Lakes today and tonight. High pressure builds in from the west today as height rises commence and deep layer anticyclonic flow becomes established overhead. After several days featuring temps slightly or well above normal, highs return to near-normal in the lower 80s with dew points in the lower 50s keeping humidity levels comfortable.
246 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Another day of benign summer weather continues across the region as upper level ridging remains centered overhead. A large area of dry air associated with continuing midlevel subsidence under the core of the ridge will suppress any additional vertical development outside of the typical summertime cumulus. Dry weather will continue tonight with low temperatures a bit warmer than previous nights this week given slightly stronger southerly surface flow. Portions of the low Rolling Plains and the SE Panhandle will likely reach and potentially exceed 105F, though this is still several degrees shy of Heat Advisory criteria.
1211 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 (Today and tonight) Hot and dry conditions will remain in place for this afternoon as high pressure remains the dominant feature.
1230 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Key Messages: - Warmer, mostly dry today.
1158 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 (The rest of today ) Focused corridor of stronger low level warm advection remains just north of the forecast area while associated mid cloud has kept temps cooler near the OK / KS border.
351 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 High pressure will remain east of the region through Friday.
407 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Low pressure will push farther out to sea this evening.
1002 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Warm and windy conditions prevail today in the southwesterly flow ahead of an advancing cold front. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop as the cold front moves through, mainly south and east of a line from around Helena to Havre.
411 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 High pressure will advance into the area through the end of the week.
246 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 High pressure builds in today, remaining on Friday.
High pressure will continue over the central and south sections while a cold front moves into north Arkansas this morning. Today Through Friday Night An upper ridge is centered over Texas and Oklahoma and extends across much of the country. An upper low will track across southern Canada through the period. The upper high will slowly drift east. A weak cold front will move into north Arkansas this morning.
A weak cold front is stalled across southwest Montana this afternoon. Forecast models have trended further west with the low pressure trough as it digs into north central Idaho and western Montana tomorrow. Winds will also trend more northerly as cooler air is drawn into the region from Canada. Bottom line: Friday will be quite a bit different from recent days with cooler/breezy conditions, cloud cover, and showers in the area.
This will keep lows a bit warmer than they could be with clear skies expected.
A cool pocket in the lower third of the atmosphere (+10-C at 850-mb) is temporarily tempering temperatures with a seasonably dry surface layer. While the overall geopotential field does not dramatically change over the course of the next day and a half, the lower-troposphere warms appreciably (approaching +20-C at 850-mb) - which will support a run toward 90-F on Friday.
208 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 High pressure will advance into the area through the end of the week.
A cold front that will move through the region Friday evening will provide a strong forcing mechanism for storms to focus on.
The exception is in extreme southeast Modoc County where high and mid level clouds on the northern fringes of an upper low in central California could work their way in.
Broad ridge aloft in the ArkLaTex region doesn't really move much this period, but alas, heights thicken ever so slightly.
/NEW/ /Today through Tomorrow/ Mid and upper level ridging will continue today, leading to another hot afternoon throughout the region. High temperatures are expected to be a few degrees warmer compared to yesterday, with highs ranging from 99 to 103 degrees. A slight weakness in the ridge coupled with higher moisture content will lead to weak updrafts capable of a brief downpour.
With the abundant moisture, afternoon high temperatures will be near or a bit cooler than average. Besides the locally heavy rain threat we will still need to watch for strong outflows, particularity Pinal county where the DCAPE is the highest.
131 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022 A broad upper ridge is centered over the CONUS, with a low pressure system over the Pacific NW. Expecting a line of storms to develop along the cold front in the afternoon, but where/when will depend on the timing of the front.
The H5 ridge axis will remain near the Ark-La-Tex to near the Trans-Pecos area. A second day of warming with SW low level flow will lead to highs a few degrees warmer than today and expect the lows of upper 90s to low 100s across the area.
525 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022 A broad upper ridge is centered over the CONUS, with a low pressure system over the Pacific NW. Expecting a line of storms to develop along the cold front in the afternoon, but where/when will depend on the timing of the front.
304 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Cold front is moving through the area this afternoon. Upper level trough will pass to the north of us in Saskatchewan on Friday. Temperatures will be about 10 to 15 degrees cooler so that should cut out our severe threat with any showers or thunderstorms that do develop.
High pressure to the north will provide mostly clear skies and light northerly winds tonight and Friday. Discussion: The weak cold front has moved east of the Appalachian crest this afternoon. Dew points have dropped into the lower 50s northern Cumberland Plateau to the mid 50s to lower 60s elsewhere.
703 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 High pressure will keep mainly VFR conditions in the area through the forecast period. Mid/upper level high pressure centered across TX will maintain mostly clear to partly cloudy skies through tonight. The environment is slightly drier today and will continue tonight, which will lead to lows being a couple of degrees cooler. The drier airmass will also result in highs on Friday being a few degrees warmer. Models show the mid/upper level high pressure moving northeast Friday as an inverted trough approaches the TX coast from the east.
708 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 (This evening through Friday) Temperatures were once again in the upper 90s to low 100s this afternoon as a 590dam mid-level ridge continues to be the dominant feature across the region. Tomorrow, the ridge will strengthen slightly and the airmass will dry out somewhat.
644 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 High pressure will build across the Commonwealth into the first part of the upcoming weekend.
The greatest bulk shear is into KS, along with the highest helicity values, which would mostly likely keep tornado potential fairly low for our CWA. After the cold front passage temperatures will be below normal for the weekend with highs in the 70s to low 80s.
714 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 High pressure will advance into the area through the end of the week.
805 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 High pressure will build across the Commonwealth into the first part of the upcoming weekend.
629 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Currently have a large area of upper high pressure centered over TX with a compact upper trough approaching the Great Basin. This will allow a cold front to sink south across the Central and Southern Plains. The bigger story will finally be some cooler temps.
Most areas will be hot and sunny for the rest of the afternoon as the upper level ridge of high pressure continues to be centered over the Red River along the Texas/Oklahoma border. Less clouds under a dome of high pressure means only one thing - increasing temperatures. Even without the heat advisory it will still be hot, so those out and about should continue to be mindful and drink plenty of water, wear light colored clothing, take breaks in the shade, and get your errands done in the morning during the cooler parts of the day.
500 mb analyses indicated a subtle mid-level short wave trough moving over the forecast area this afternoon. However, this break in the action will be short lived as the low over central Nevada is progged to sync with a deeper low over southern British Columbia, shifting eastward as an open trough tonight. The trough passes over eastern Utah toward noon, then over western Colorado during the afternoon. Subsidence and drying on the backside of the the trough will lead to an end to moist convection by midnight with clearing spreading from west to east across the region.
Showers and storms are expected to develop Friday afternoon, with the highest chances over the interior, however coastal terminals will still have a slight chance of seeing convection reduce flight categories as well. A cold front will stall in north Florida over the weekend.
Further south along the trough across south central SD, a few showers/storms tried to develop earlier, but could not sustain themselves. A broad upper ridge is centered over the CONUS, with a low pressure system over the Pacific NW. Expecting a line of storms to develop along the cold front in the afternoon, but where/when will depend on the timing of the front.
717 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 A stalled frontal boundary along the Blue Ridge this afternoon meander in this area into early Friday before dissipating.
The surface cold front is to the south of the region, and we will be sitting under high pressure and northerly flow for the remainder of this short term period. Temperatures are cooler (and feel cooler) than the past few days with overnight lows in the mid-60s.
659 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 High pressure overhead and a very dry atmosphere will support clear skies and light winds into Fri morning. A cool pocket in the lower third of the atmosphere (+10-C at 850-mb) is temporarily tempering temperatures with a seasonably dry surface layer. While the overall geopotential field does not dramatically change over the course of the next day and a half, the lower-troposphere warms appreciably (approaching +20-C at 850-mb) - which will support a run toward 90-F on Friday.
944 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 High pressure will provide us with quiet weather tonight. The surface cold front is to the south of the region, and we will be sitting under high pressure and northerly flow for the remainder of this short term period. Temperatures are cooler (and feel cooler) than the past few days with overnight lows in the mid-60s.
Thunderstorms, a few of which could be strong to severe, are expected through this evening across eastern portions of Southwest through North Central Montana as a Pacific cold front cross the region.
407 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Summary: Warm temps will round out the rest of the workweek with cooler temps expected this weekend.
Under the remaining clouds, temps in southwest Iowa have been consigned to the low 70s in some spots after peaking in the mid- 80s at lunch. Better odds of rain/thunder will hold off for dark with the approaching of the cold front from the Dakotas and the nocturnal jet.
/issued 246 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022/ Another day of benign summer weather continues across the region as upper level ridging remains centered overhead. A large area of dry air associated with continuing midlevel subsidence under the core of the ridge will suppress any additional vertical development outside of the typical summertime cumulus. Dry weather will continue tonight with low temperatures a bit warmer than previous nights this week given slightly stronger southerly surface flow. Portions of the low Rolling Plains and the SE Panhandle will likely reach and potentially exceed 105F, though this is still several degrees shy of Heat Advisory criteria.
940 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Forecast is on track tonight as high pressure remains in control. Only small update was to adjust overnight lows to fall in line with current observations, mainly along the I-10 corridor where temperatures are currently warmer than previously forecasted.
801 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 (This evening through Friday Night) The massive upper level high responsible for the scorching temperatures across the southern Plains and deep South today will remain in place Friday, with a subtle drift back to the east, placing the ridge axis comfortably across the ArkLaTex throughout the afternoon and early evening hours.
1001 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 High pressure will advance into the area through the end of the week.
917 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Low pressure will push farther out to sea this evening.