Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Expect to see another day with flat cumulus development despite the weak trough axes aloft and the aforementioned very dry air remaining in place that will result in another day where daytime dewpoints will come down at the surface. The slightly lower dewpoints allow for temperatures in dip once again into the low to mid 60s tonight.
Behind the front on Sunday temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with plenty of sun. An isolated thunderstorm over the higher terrain can't be ruled out, but otherwise generally dry conditions will continue.
212 AM MDT Sun Aug 9 2020 A cold front currently passing over southeastern Montana is shifting winds to the northwest and bringing with it cooler temperatures, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s today, that will help keep humidities from dropping below 20 percent.
240 AM MDT Sun Aug 9 2020 Current surface analysis shows one frontal boundary just south and east of the region, with a cold front over MT also approaching the area. Upper level analysis shows low pressure over central Canada shifting slowly northeastward, with near zonal flow across the northern Plains. Cold front to the northwest will push through the area today, bringing breezy northwesterly winds to most areas behind it. Highs will range from the mid to upper 70s over portions of northeast WY and the higher Black Hills to the low to mid 90s over far southern SD.
Models still picking up on the weak cold front dropping southward across the state tonight, hanging up on the Divide on Monday. This will knock a couple degrees off the highs for the northern part of the state, and will stabilize the atmosphere, keeping rain chances minimal to nil.
534 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 Warm and mostly dry weather will continue through Monday under high pressure.
Temperatures will struggle to cool off tonight, thanks to the high dewpoints, a continued SSW breeze, and increased cloud cover ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will move through the area on Monday, along with increasing thunderstorm chances throughout the day. However if early morning storms fail to develop or can clear quickly, the environment may be conducive for a round of strong to severe storms along the cold front.
Ambient temperatures are expected to reach the low 90s along the coast and almost 100 further inland with heat indices in the mid to upper 100s.
402 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020 The region remains under the influence of upper ridging to the west and some troughing to the east. Thanks to the ridging influence, temperatures today will once again warm into the mid to upper 90s, similar to yesterday.
548 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 Under partly cloudy skies and mainly east winds of around 10 mph, temperatures in the lower to mid 80s outside of communities impacted by rainfall. With high pressure to the north, a few extremely subtle undulations will pass through our region.
With a bubble high over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and the Bermuda Azores Ridge across the Atlantic neither the Gulf or Atlantic Sea Breeze fronts will become dominant today. and low temperatures Tonight in the lower-mid 70s.
Scattered showers/storms may develop across Southeast Texas where much better moisture is located, but this activity should generally remain out of our area given the influence of stronger ridging. Dunn Previous Discussion: /Overnight through Monday/ Summertime subtropical ridging will remain in place across the Southern Plains through Monday keeping the region hot and dry, which is typical for this time of year. The center of the ridging will shift every so slightly westward and weaken a bit by late Monday, but this should be mostly transparent to our sensible weather. Otherwise, afternoon shower/storm activity will remain off to our southeast and well north of our area around the periphery of the upper ridge.
Benign boating conditions continue under high pressure.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler today in the wake of a weak cold front that passed through overnight.
This area is in a region of isentropic lift and associated convergence of the low level jet, with convergence along an eastward moving cold frontal boundary as well. There the low level parcels will briefly see CAPE values exceed 4000 this afternoon (by 2 pm CDT) on the NAM forecast sounding. but they may not have residency time in this rich airmass for very long as the cold front sweeps through by 4 pm CDT. Tonight skies will clear as teh cold front moves east and high pressure builds in.
Covective cluster over western Kentcky attm is forecast to weaken as it comes east into the ridge, leaving the forecast dry for today. Zonal flow tonight into Monday will allow for some mid level energy to push east across the region as a cold front sags southeast across the western Great Lakes.
627 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022 Lingering energy behind a short wave trough that moved through the Great Lakes has reinforced the cold front that cleared Kansas and has allowed it to continue pushing further south.
604 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022 (Today and tonight) Early this morning, a broad upper-level trough was located over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes, while a ridge remained in place across Texas and the Desert Southwest. Despite the trough dipping slightly into the southern Plains, the ridge should maintain its hold on much of Texas today as temperatures will reach to around 100 degrees this afternoon.
This is due to the placement of high pressure currently residing over the Pacific Northwest allowing for moisture to advect across our region from the Gulf of California.
544 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022 Quiet and cooler weather will be present through much of the weekend.
The effective cold front is currently near the Tennessee border, likely near the east to west oriented band of showers.
/issued 357 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): The persistent mid-level ridge builds once again heading into the start of the weekend. Have once again gone above model guidance for highs, with MFE, HRL, and BRO especially all still topping out a few degrees warmer than NBM.
527 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chance return today, mainly from Pit south, with a reinforcing cold front. The best forcing and deepest moisture will be ahead of the front, which places the highest PoPs over the southern third of the region.
333 PM EDT Fri Jul 29 2022 High pressure will build into the region tonight and remain in place for Saturday.
Although this low-level wind max will decrease this afternoon, diurnal heating will be sufficient to continue numerous to widespread convection. For areas that don't see as much rain, high temperatures will peak in the low 90s.
High pressure centered to the east will stretch across the region through Tonight.
A deep layer ridge of high pressure continues to nose westward across the western Atlantic and adjacent north central Gulf Coast region early this afternoon and this pattern will persist into Saturday. Lows tonight should continue to range in the lower to mid 70s inland and in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees along the coast.
305 PM EDT Fri Jul 29 2022 Upper trough that has been keeping its grip on the U. is finally moseying off into the Nrn portions of Quebec, allowing for ridging to move in in its place. Steady NW winds with a few gusts will slowly slacken as dusk and the increasing influence of the ridge approaches.
as an upper level ridge amplifies over the Intermountain West/Rockies. Height rises assoc/w the amplifying ridge should tend to suppress convective development over the region. expect warmer temperatures than previous days.
An area of high pressure is situated over Florida and the western Atlantic, helping to keep conditions dry.
Expect warming temperatures on Saturday as a result of the drier forecast, with highs running around 10 degrees warmer than were seen on Friday.
Water vapor imagery reveals an elongated mid-upper level low that is moving west and currently approaching the Cay Sal Bank. This slug of moisture will traverse the entire service area on Saturday, in the deep-layer east-southeast flow trailing behind the mid-upper low. The main limiting factor will be that the better lift from the mid-upper level feature will have moved on by then, so the increased moisture will mainly help enhance convection stemming from our more normal mesoscale features, including the morning silhouette of the Cuban landbreeze that should extend up toward the Lower Keys in east-southeast low-level flow.
Large scale troughing is still in place across the eastern third of the CONUS and is evident in water vapor imagery this afternoon. A recent surface analysis shows relatively little locally besides high pressure and a weak warm front/boundary originating from SW South Dakota that extends southeast and washes out in north- central Nebraska. Aside from those features, we find ourselves on the fringe of deeper cloud cover to the south while still being on the cooler side of the pattern resulting in a beautiful summer day.
320 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022 Early afternoon temperatures are mostly in the low to mid 80s. A stalled cold front is located along the Tennessee Mississippi state line stretching into central Arkansas. Over the weekend, the cold front will remain over the Midsouth while slowly dissipating.
Particularly early tomorrow morning, the higher PW axis should creep back north, with the 2"+ axis coming over south central and southeast KS.
1233 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022 For today, modest H5 height rises over western Nebraska as the upper trough moves into the Eastern Great Lakes. Kept highs limited to the upper 70s to near 80 south of I80, as more cloudiness and a cooler airmass residing across southeast CO and KS today. Saturday, warmer temperatures return to the eastern panhandle and northern NE, where highs reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. Highs remain limited to the low to mid 80s across southwest into central NE.
1238 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022 Lingering energy behind a short wave trough that moved through the Great Lakes has reinforced the cold front that cleared Kansas and has allowed it to continue pushing further south.
Tonight: Scattered cumulus clouds will dissipate by sunset followed by a clear, calm, and comfortable overnight hours, as high pressure settles over the area. Saturday: A pleasant start to the weekend as high pressure gradually shifts off to our east. Light south winds and plenty of sunshine again will push afternoon highs into the lower to mid 80s. Large scale signals in the atmosphere support an upper level high developing across the western two thirds of the CONUS.
Southerly return flow persists through Saturday, helping usher in a warmer, slightly more moist air mass.
1213 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022 (Today and tonight) Early this morning, a broad upper-level trough was located over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes, while a ridge remained in place across Texas and the Desert Southwest. Despite the trough dipping slightly into the southern Plains, the ridge should maintain its hold on much of Texas today as temperatures will reach to around 100 degrees this afternoon.
300 PM EDT Fri Jul 29 2022 Current radar mosaic is quiet across Upper Michigan despite a weak cold front moving through the area. And, subsidence will slowly strengthen throughout the day as an upper ridge forces the persistent Ontario low/best forcing eastward. Currently, temperatures across the forecast area are generally in the low to mid 50s (inland) to low 60s (lakeshore).
150 PM EDT Fri Jul 29 2022 A cold front will move southeast through the region today. High pressure will then build into the area tonight, settling across the Ohio Valley on Saturday.
Tomorrow will be the last nice day for a while, with temperatures in the low 80s.
The flood watch looks good as it stands representing the area with the highest risk for higher rain rates / amounts. Southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas will struggle the most to get much rainfall and maintain the highest temperatures (upper 90s on Saturday).
341 PM EDT Fri Jul 29 2022 Discussion/Marine -- Dry weekend -- High pressure will bring dry weather through this weekend. Temperatures this weekend will be very close to normals with highs in the low to middle 80s.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 88 72 86 73 / 50 70 30 80 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 87 71 84 72 / 40 60 40 80 60 Oak Ridge, TN 70 86 70 82 71 / 50 50 40 80 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 83 67 81 68 / 50 40 40 80 70 TN.
258 PM EDT Fri Jul 29 2022 Water vapor imagery reveals a SW-NE aligned mid- upper level trough moving west through the Straits and across the Keys this afternoon. In the deep-layer east- southeast flow trailing behind the mid-upper trough, the slug of moisture will pass south of Andros Island this evening and traverse the entire service area on Saturday. So the increased moisture will mainly help enhance convection stemming from our more normal mesoscale features, including the downwind silhouette of the Cuban landbreeze as it reaches the Lower Keys on Saturday morning.
High pressure at the surface will continue to keep rain south of the area Saturday.
Temperatures will remain well above normal through Saturday as high pressure shifts east.
A building ridge at all levels will be the rule through Saturday. /issued 357 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): The persistent mid-level ridge builds once again heading into the start of the weekend. Have once again gone above model guidance for highs, with MFE, HRL, and BRO especially all still topping out a few degrees warmer than NBM.
McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 73 88 72 86 / 70 50 70 30 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 70 87 71 84 / 70 40 60 40 80 Oak Ridge, TN 84 70 86 70 82 / 70 50 50 40 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 68 83 67 81 / 70 50 40 40 80 TN.
Saturday, upper level ridge builds into the northern plains with sustained warm air advection. Weak low forms over MT, slipping into ND pulling a trough through the CWA. Temperatures will be 5-10F warmer than today given forecast soundings/ensemble guidance.
Meanwhile, current surface analysis shows a cold front draped across the southern United States spanning from the Tennessee River Valley to the Texas Panhandle.
Tonight: Upper ridging will begin to break down somewhat tonight, with frontal boundary sagging S into the Mid-S & N MS. High moisture & clouds should keep lows above climo into the low-mid 70s. Saturday: With the ridge finally breaking down enough, Sat is expected to be a wet one with scattered-numerous coverage of rain & storms.
1221 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022 Quiet and cooler weather will be present through much of the weekend.
235 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022 KEY MESSAGES: - Warmer temperatures this weekend, with highs near 90.
(This evening through Saturday) A fairly breezy and dry day continues over much of South Florida today, as elongated ridging emanating from the western Atlantic waters maintains a presence over the region.
Strong upper-level ridging remains in control of our weather this afternoon limiting the development of isolated showers currently popping up over portions of the forecast area. Rain chances decrease this evening except in the northern Midlands where an approaching frontal boundary and upper trough will allow showers and thunderstorms to persist. A digging upper trough that will just glance the area will help to push a weak cold front through North Carolina and towards the Northern Midlands Saturday.
Temperatures will be warmer, with much of the area in the mid to uppper 90s, with some locations pushing 100 degrees.
Hot weather continues into the weekend with temperatures across northern Nevada above average due to high pressure over the area.
Broad mid level high pressure draped generally from TX to the FL coast, will build slightly southwest across S TX tonight through Saturday. This will bring drier mid level air across the area leading to highs on Saturday being a degree or two warmer and lows Saturday night a couple of degrees cooler. Despite the limited moisture and the high building across the area, most models show isolated convection over the coastal waters Saturday with the HRRR and RAP showing the isolated convection moving inland with the sea breeze Saturday afternoon.
The ridge of high pressure will continue to create excessive heat throughout the Northern Rockies this weekend, with the lower valleys of north central Idaho receiving the brunt of heat.
This will result in much warmer temps and higher dewpoints to return to the area on Saturday. With a return of the moisture and heat, some CAPE does develop, with the highest concentration of instability over central SD.
A stalled cold front is located along the Tennessee Mississippi state line stretching into central Arkansas. The ridge returns by midweek resulting in warming temperatures.
Showers should wane heading into the early afternoon hours as the low level jet weakens and deeper lift within the warm advection regime fades. 5 inch totals prevalent along the highway 412 corridor from northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas.
There will be just a slight chance for isolated showers mainly south/east of the glacial ridge where the better height falls will coincide with the slightly more favorable low-level moisture collecting near the lakeshore. Sharply rising heights ensue tonight as a flattening midlevel ridge moves over the region.
Tstms will initiate aft 18Z over the high terrain, increasing in coverage to sct-nmrs by afternoon.
Tonight, showers and thunderstorms are progged to move into the northern combined Panhandles from NM/CO area off the higher terrain. Tomorrow, a mid to upper level ridge will build over CA/NV/UT/AZ with this high pressure stealing most of the current moisture by directing it up into the Sierra Nevada.
Tomorrow temperatures are forecast increase into the upper 80s to lower 90s due to a low-level thermal ridge spanning form eastern Montana into central South Dakota.
A trough of low pressure will develop to our west overnight, and winds should shift to the southwest ahead of it. Better deep layer bulk shear of around 30 kts and forcing mechanism will arrive later Saturday night as the cold front pushes towards our western counties.
A strong upper ridge will continue to support the record and near-record heat as Heat Advisories and Warnings remain in effect through the weekend.
Main focus continues to be heavy rain and flooding potential now that many areas have been saturated and the high moisture sticks around through the weekend.
Rainfall winners so far today have been locations along the Highway 35 corridor between Alvin and Pearland where 2. PW's begin to diminish from south and we start getting into a more subsident zone in relation to the wwd moving inverted trof in the Gulf later in the day.
Winds will be light, with near normal temperatures just a couple degrees warmer than Friday.
An upper ridge over the region will keep temperatures hot across the interior of Western Washington through the weekend.
732 PM EDT Fri Jul 29 2022 (This evening through Saturday) A fairly breezy and dry day continues over much of South Florida today, as elongated ridging emanating from the western Atlantic waters maintains a presence over the region.
A digging upper trough that will just glance the area will help to push a weak cold front through North Carolina and towards the Northern Midlands Saturday.
746 PM EDT Fri Jul 29 2022 An upper level low and area of deeper moisture has been sliding across south Florida and the Florida Straits out into the gulf late this afternoon and early evening with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms associated with it.
High temperatures Saturday will be in the lower and middle 90s, but lower humidity will keep heat indices below 105 degrees. High pressure centered to the east will stretch across the region through Tonight.
642 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022 Early afternoon temperatures are mostly in the low to mid 80s. A stalled cold front is located along the Tennessee Mississippi state line stretching into central Arkansas. Over the weekend, the cold front will remain over the Midsouth while slowly dissipating.
Showers will move through this evening ahead of a cold front with a chance for some isolated thunder near TYS and CHA. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 88 72 86 73 / 40 60 40 70 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 86 70 85 72 / 30 40 30 70 60 Oak Ridge, TN 69 84 69 83 71 / 30 30 30 70 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 83 67 83 69 / 40 30 20 70 60 TN.
Although it will be a little warmer this evening than yesterday evening, looks like a comfortable evening as humidity remains low. Tomorrow temperatures are forecast increase into the upper 80s to lower 90s due to a low-level thermal ridge spanning form eastern Montana into central South Dakota.
749 PM EDT Fri Jul 29 2022 Aviation -- Dry weekend -- High pressure will bring dry weather through this weekend. Temperatures this weekend will be very close to normals with highs in the low to middle 80s.
611 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022 KEY MESSAGES: - Warmer temperatures this weekend, with highs near 90.
1013 PM EDT Fri Jul 29 2022 Update Clouds have dropped south through nw Lwr MI this evening within H8 thermal trough and the U. Winds have diminished to 5 kts or less and we're headed toward cool, almost chilly, early morning low temps in the lower to mid 50s under ideal radiational cooling set-up. -- Dry weekend -- High pressure will bring dry weather through this weekend. Temperatures this weekend will be very close to normals with highs in the low to middle 80s.
Hot weather continues into the weekend with temperatures across northern Nevada above average due to high pressure over the area. High pressure ridge remains firmly entrenched over the western US, to continue the spell of very warm temperatures.
927 PM EDT Fri Jul 29 2022 High pressure will build into the region tonight and remain in place for Saturday.
Warm temperatures in the lower 80s this evening will settle in the low to mid 70s overnight. VFR conditions prevail throughout the period at all sites thanks to an area of high pressure keeping conditions dry.
So diurnal cumulus will fade through early evening as high pressure of 1020 mb moves overhead for the night. Saturday will see less synoptic flow with the ridge in place and allow for a little more inland progression of the lake breeze.
934 PM EDT Fri Jul 29 2022 A cold front will pass through the region overnight. High pressure builds over region this weekend bringing dry and mild conditions.
735 PM EDT Fri Jul 29 2022 High pressure will build into the region tonight and remain in place for Saturday.
Temperatures will be warmer, with much of the area in the mid to upper 90s, with some locations pushing 100 degrees.
Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected to continue on Saturday, thanks to the ridge remaining in place over the Pacific Northwest. Aside from rainfall, temperatures will be slightly cooler than average for this time of year.
Sunday will be a touch warmer with isolated thunderstorm coverage confined to the Guadalupe and Sacramento Mountains.
346 AM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022 Another quiet night thanks to high pressure with satellite showing mostly clear skies across the area save for a few lingering high clouds here and there. Expect the mostly clear skies to continue today with the continued presence of high pressure, along with slightly warmer highs in the 80s and modest southerly winds. Aloft we will be in weak NW flow with ridging to the west. Sunday the ridge aloft starts to make its way into the region and will push temperatures up into the lower 90s.
Going into this weekend, looking for increased clearing over the region on Saturday, giving way to a dry and sunny day for Sunday area-wide as high pressure aloft shifts east off the Rockies, allowing for northwest downslope. For temps, the region will see a slightly warmer day going into Saturday as clouds clear. Long range guidance suggests that an upper level ridge (amplifying invof the 4-Corners this weekend) will shift eastward over the Rockies and Central/Southern Plains by Tue.
So kept lows a tad higher than previously thought, but still in the lower 70s primarily.