Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
956 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 An area of low pressure is centered near the coast of South Carolina. Forecast models are in general agreement, tropical low pressure near the south carolina coast resulting in increasing cloudiness across the carolinas overnight and a northwest drift of showers from the coast. Not confident of much precip making it into WVA or far western Va so will maintain a tight gradient of POPs west of the Blue Ridge. High humidity and showers will be in the forecast as long as it remains with highest pops along and east of the Blue Ridge, and lowest in the west. With more breaks in the cloud cover, temperatures should be warmer with 80s for highs.
Satellite Water Vapor Imagery showing closed low vicinity of KFSD with a trough extending southeast through central IA. Ascent/lift ahead of this low combined with fairly humid airmass was leading to scattered shower/thunderstorms across the area per latest radar trends. will likely continue to see isolated showers through the overnight hours with mid-level trough moving overhead. Trough lingers overhead Sunday for more showers and late morning/afternoon scattered thunderstorms. Look for the trough to push east of the area Sunday night with weak ridging building in for clearing skies. Will see a chance of showers/thunderstorms mainly west of the Mississippi River on Memorial Day in warm air advection/isentropic lift ahead of low pressure moving into the Northern Plains.
812 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 Aviation Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday as a cold front works through the region. Memorial Day looks beautiful with a bit less humidity, plenty of sunshine, and highs in the lower 80s.
Activity seems to have developed in low to mid- level trough 850-700 mbars as evident on latest rap loop.
1114 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016 Considered adding a slight chance of showers to parts of eastern NE overnight as convection across the high plains shifts east. Upper low over northwest Iowa at 19z with scattered showers and thunderstorms across eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Dry conditions for the area tonight into early Sunday as upper flow flattens behind the departing trough.
953 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 High pressure over the region will weaken as a weak cold front moves across the area on Sunday. High pressure will return to the region for the first part of the week. We will need to monitor the movement of a cold front that is approaching the Chicago area. A weak cold front will move across the forecast area on Sunday. Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Sunday as cloud cover and thunderstorms are expected with the frontal passage.
741 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 High pressure over the region will weaken as a weak cold front moves across the area on Sunday. High pressure will return to the region for the first part of the week. With the approaching front and the weakening ridge, I will not completely rule out the chance of a few storms overnight but I will lower the probabilities into the slight chance category. A weak cold front will move across the forecast area on Sunday. Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Sunday as cloud cover and thunderstorms are expected with the frontal passage.
Am only expecting isolated showers near the Idaho border and over the higher terrain of the Rocky Mountains for the remainder of this evening and overnight.
Our area remains in the more subsident and drier side of the cyclone.
1142 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016 Prefrontal trof to slide through forecast area this evening. Otherwise, will see storms weaken after sunset, then partly cloudy with lows in the low to mid 60s. Byrd Quieter weather is expected on Sunday as the upper level trough shifts northeast of our area. Slightly cooler low temperatures are expected for Sunday night due to less cloud cover, light or calm surface winds, and a little lower surface dew points.
Showers will continue tonight then gradually diminish through Sunday as an upper level low over British Columbia moves slowly east.
516 PM MDT SAT MAY 28 2016 A modest amount of moisture will continue to be entrained over the region as the next low pressure system develops over southern California through Sunday.
616 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016 Upper low over northwest Iowa at 19z with scattered showers and thunderstorms across eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Dry conditions for the area tonight into early Sunday as upper flow flattens behind the departing trough.
925 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016 Upper low located just south of the region will propagate northeast overnight.
Shower and thunderstorm coverage on Sunday is anticipated to be isolated at best as weak upper level ridging builds in and main triggering mechanism will be daytime instability with very little shear. Medium to long range models indicate shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase towards mid to late week as an upper level trough and associated cold front approach the Lower Mississippi Valley. 00Z NAM and RUC indicate a SCT to occasional BKN layer possible after 09Z at around FL015, behind a weak elevated cold front / wind shift.
Otherwise, in addition to the high clouds streaming overhead, expect increasing low clouds (with some patchy fog possible outside of the Houston metro) by early Sunday morning with overnight lows generally in the 70s. This quieter pattern to remain in place the next couple of days as weak ridging aloft holds over the state. The break down of the upper ridge on Tues should herald the approach/passage of the upper trof/low around mid-week. This system combined with a late season cold front will help to produce widespread activity as these systems appear to meet in SE TX. 41 Winds/seas over the coastal waters continuing to trend downward as high pressure continues to build into the region. No real change with this pattern is fore- cast until weeks end with the possibility of a cold front.
1158 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016 A weak cold front is working its way east through the CWA early this afternoon. Temps tonight should fall into the low to mid 60s, with somewhat drier air building in from the northwest. This slightly drier airmass, along with a bit of ridging aloft, should help temper thunderstorm chances significantly through the day Sunday.
High pressure should result in dry weather for Memorial Day. Showers and thunderstorms should taper off Sunday night as the trough axis crosses.
Upper level trough to move across the region tonight into Sunday. Surface gradients will be increasing as the trough moves through.
922 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 An area of low pressure, associated with Tropical Storm Bonnie, will come ashore along the Carolina coast, and then move slowly northeastward over the next couple of days.
Thundertorm chances will increase across the NE OK and NW AR site late in the period as a cold front approaches from the north. Thunderstorm coverage this afternoon should be a little further west than yesterday as the upper ridge loses its hold just a little bit.
High pressure will keep rather tranquil and very pleasant summertime conditions in place across the Northern Rockies into Monday morning.
On Monday the ridge of high pressure weakens and pushes eastward. Both right now can be seen on water vapor, one over the lower Mississippi Valley, and the other over south Florida.
As the subtropical ridge retrogrades over the Central Great Basin area toward the middle of the week, northwest mid/upper flow will develop downstream across the central Conus. Uncertainty grows as we move into the weekend as the GFS is more aggressive building the mid/upper ridge back into the central Conus. Other storms are expected to develop over the high plains in upslope flow late this pm/eve, and propagate eastward overnight while congealing into clusters as they encounter richer moisture/instability.
226 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 A cold front will approach from the west on Monday and will cross the region Monday night, providing another round of showers and thunderstorms.
Synoptic Setup: A large heat dome exists over the southwestern quadrant of the CONUS while weakly ridged flow exists across the Pacific Northwest, Montana, and southwest Canada. Today through Monday: Developing synoptic ridge to the west will amplify and slowly move east.
640 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through much of the week while a weak trough persists inland. Mid and upper level low is found drifting west across Florida while mid and upper ridging is situated across the Carolina's and central Appalachians. At the surface, Atlantic high pressure will dominate. A deep layer ridge will continue over the region. Deep layer moisture will be the lowest/most marginal for Monday, which will translate to the lowest pops/coverage for afternoon convection.
325 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through much of the week while a weak trough persists inland. Expect a dry and humid night for the region with overnight lows ranging from the mid 70s inland to the lower 80s at the beaches, Downtown Charleston and around Lake Moultrie. A deep layer ridge will continue over the region. Deep layer moisture will be the lowest/most marginal for Monday, which will translate to the lowest pops/coverage for afternoon convection.
Strong high pressure will bring a significant warming trend into the coming week with temperatures approaching the triple digits across the interior. Temperatures along the Pacific Coast are running in the lower to mid 60s with the coolest readings in the cloudier areas. High pressure aloft will continue to gradually build over the desert SW over the next few days, with high temperatures at many interior locations exceeding 100 degrees.
221 PM MDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Current surface map places high pressure across the western Dakotas. On Monday, high pressure slides east with return flow across the forecast area. The extended starts off with a slightly amplified zonal flow with a building west coast 500hpa ridge with a deepening east coast 500hpa trof. resulting in a drier but warmer flow.
549 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 A weakening cold front will move southeast across the area tonight into monday.
1103 AM MDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Updated Aviation Discussion Upper level ridge shifting across the Northern Rockies and MT will maintain mainly clear skies across the region today with a weak surface pressure gradient providing light winds. High pressure and dry westerly flow aloft will maintain mostly clear skies and light winds across central and southwest MT through Monday morning.
135 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 A cold front over the upper midwest will move southeast across our area tonight and Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of the cold front through Monday.
Broad upper ridge over the area will gradually weaken during the short term.
649 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 High pressure will cross the region tonight then move east Monday.
315 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016 An upper level ridge centered over New Mexico will continue to shift slowly west while a mid/upper level trough works its way in from the east. Convection associated with the trough has been persistent over Louisiana and East Texas the past several days and has been developing a little farther west each day. Locally heavy rainfall may be something to consider, particularly across the southeast where the highest moisture resides. Strong downburst winds could become an issue during the late afternoon and early evening hours, but the threat may be minimized by the high moisture environment.
This low has contributed to highly variable weather through the day. Continued near overcast conditions have kept highs in the mid 80s with dew points suppressed in the low to mid 70s. Forecast - The mid to upper level low will continue shifting westward into the Gulf of Mexico this evening. Until the low departs our area, we will be under a regime of cyclonic flow that reaches down to the 850 mb level and ample deep layered moisture. Another trigger will be the usually more convective eastern semicircle of an upper level low. With the eventual departure of the upper level low, deep layered Atlantic ridging will begin building westward across Florida. In addition, a slug of drier and warmer low level air will move in bringing with it a more inhospitable environment for shower development.
On Monday, upper ridge slowly pushes westward through NM, with wly flow bringing some slightly drier air into the region, especially across nrn and western portions of the state.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): For the next 24 hours or so, weather over Deep South Texas will be dominated by mid-level high pressure centered roughly over New Mexico. Another sultry night in store tonight with an increase in high clouds ahead of an inverted mid-level trough (actually the first of 2) which will move into the western Gulf/NE Texas by early on Monday morning and progress into central TX by evening. First aforementioned wave moves inland well to our north, while second inverted mid-level trough or closed low approaches the coast late.
257 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Cold front extended from eastern Jo Daviess county to Kirksville, MO and continued to move eastward. Mid afternoon temperatures ranged from the mid 80s behind the front to the lower 90s ahead of the front. With the passage of the cold front humidity levels will gradually lower to more tolerable levels, along with cooler temperatures. Monday: Weak high pressure will bring a much more comfortable day with lower humidity and cooler temperatures (compared to the past several days).
554 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through much of the week while a weak trough persists inland. Mid and upper level low is found drifting west across Florida while mid and upper ridging is situated across the Carolina's and central Appalachians. At the surface, Atlantic high pressure will dominate. A deep layer ridge will continue over the region. Deep layer moisture will be the lowest/most marginal for Monday, which will translate to the lowest pops/coverage for afternoon convection.
642 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 A cold front over the upper midwest will move southeast across our area tonight and Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of the cold front through Monday.
410 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 A weakening cold front will move southeast across the area tonight into monday.
Northern portions of the area have seen a little less in the way of convection, so temperatures there made it in to the lower 90s.
127 PM PDT SUN JUL 24 2016 A ridge of high pressure will provide the Central California Interior with mostly clear skies and above average temperatures. These conditions will persist over the region for most of the coming week as the ridge of high pressure is expected to remain over the area.
242 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 High pressure will crest over the area tonight then move east on Monday.
431 PM MDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Current surface map places high pressure across the western Dakotas. On Monday, high pressure slides east with return flow across the forecast area. The extended starts off with a slightly amplified zonal flow with a building west coast 500hpa ridge with a deepening east coast 500hpa trof. resulting in a drier but warmer flow.
with convection on the east side of the low starting to increase over the adjacent Atlantic waters east of West Palm Beach. The upper low will swing out over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico this evening. Upper level temperatures will still be quite warm with 5h temps will be -5C north of interstate 10 with temperatures slightly cooler -6 to -6. 5C across north central florida on the east side of the departing upper low.
These showers and thunderstorms are developing ahead of an approaching inverted trough, and the GFS moves this system nwwd into northeastern Sonora around daybreak Monday.
1236 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016 An upper-level trough across the region will allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
Still expect max temps to back off a degree or two over the next few days as the upper level ridge weakens very slowly.
353 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016 The upper level ridge will continue to weaken and shift back towards the west this evening.
233 PM MDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Mainly clear and dry conditions with relatively light winds will continue through Monday morning as an upper level ridge of high pressure drifts east across the region. This will allow for some destabilization Monday afternoon and likely lead to the development of more widespread cumulus as well as a few isolated showers and thunderstorms, primarily initiating over the higher terrain of central and SW MT.
158 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 A cold front over the upper midwest will move southeast across our area tonight and Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of the cold front through Monday.
A tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) lies over the southeast Florida coastline with a broad mid and upper level ridge covering most of the southern CONUS. The mid and upper level ridge, which has been in place for a few days now, has worked some dry air into the mid levels as can be seen in our KTAE soundings yesterday and today.
228 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016 The upper level ridge is expected to remain over the southwest part of the country through the period. The ridge is not very amplified which leads to a flat zonal flow from the Pacific Northwest into the Upper Midwest. This flow looks to be pretty quiet through Monday night but then a couple of short wave troughs are expected to come across the region.
218 PM PDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Hot and dry conditions with mainly light late day breezes are expected for the upcoming week as strong high pressure builds into the Great Basin.
102 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through much of the week while a weak trough persists inland. Dewpoints are beginning to pool along the lower South Carolina coast as the resultant develops. Tonight: Any lingering convection should diminish early with mostly dry conditions overnight as upper level low pressure to the south moves west into the Gulf of Mexico. Lows will mostly range from the mid 70s inland to near 80 at the coast, although some of the normally cooler inland spots could reach the lower 70s.
350 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016 The key issue in the forecast will focus on an incoming trough that will bring the most serious rainfall potential in some time to the area. There continues to be divergent model guidance for the rebuilding of the ridge in the wake of the trough's passage, which has implications for both lingering rainfall potential and high temperatures deeper into the week. For the most part, temperatures are cooler than previous days, but still brought the westernmost counties up into the middle 90s on the thought that clouds/rain will be late enough to get a bit more heating in. As the inverted trough works its way deeper into Texas, there becomes a divergence in the guidance as to how long upper weakness in the height field continues.
113 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 A weakening cold front will move southeast across the area tonight into monday.
1207 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Regional obs this morning showing no lack of llvl moisture with sfc dew points in the low/mid 70s spread across the CWA just ahead of the leading edge of a cold front currently extending from about swrn MN to wrn KS. Low level moisture return begins in earnest Monday night advecting up along the high plains with TSRA development mainly over the wrn SD within waa regime with upper level support implied via Qvect convg.
Latest short term guidenace suggests mid level trough axis will be moving past south central MN by 7 pm. Upper level trough exits late tonight, with ridging and quiet weather. At the surface, high pressure in South Dakota will move southeast, and winds will be lightest in southwest Minnesota. Therefore it looks like it should be a rather pleasant day, with dew points mostly in the lower 60s and light winds gradually turning to the southwest in western MN, but remaining from the northwest in central and eastern MN and in west central Wisconsin.
Skies are then expected to clear out this evening and overnight as high pressure builds in behind the front. Should be a pleasant day Monday under the high, with temperatures back toward normal values and lower dewpoints.
/12Z TAFS/ A weak cold front stretches from just south of DRT to between SAT and SSF to just southeast of AUS. Weak isentropic ascent reestablishes itself overnight as the weak front lifts back to the north as a warm front after return flow restores low level moisture to the region. Confidence is lower at AUS further north of the warm frontal boundary, so for now have just included MVFR visibilities. A cold front is making progress to the south across South Central Texas early this morning. Solar heating will allow for a warm layer of temperatures off the surface to mix down with highs near to slightly above normal today and well above normal on Tuesday, however, another cold front will be moving across Central Texas late Tuesday afternoon.
947 AM EST Mon Dec 12 2016 A cold front will move through the area this afternoon. High pressure builds in for Tuesday.
901 AM EST Mon Dec 12 2016 High pressure along the Mid-Atlantic coast will move out to sea today as a cold front approaches from the Mississippi valley. The front will move back north as a warm front Tuesday.
A cold front moved through the area last night, bringing in cooler temperatures and northeast winds. Although skies will be mostly sunny, we will see cooler temperatures today behind the cold front that moved through. Winds will turn back to the south by this evening, bringing moisture back into the area for Monday night, and warming lows a few degrees warmer than our temperatures this morning.
559 AM CST Mon Dec 12 2016 The cold front has shifted ESE and roughly extends from a just E of a DKR. Little if any improvement is expected until after late morning/early afternoon Tuesday from N to S as sfc ridging begins to build Swd. The weak cold front is draped right over us from Deep East TX. The Northerly winds will gently ease the front along and just South of I-20 today and then slowly ease moisture back northward ahead of the next cold front arriving during Tuesday for a slight chance for rain showers.
With the moisture in the ground from past days, and only high clouds, patchy freezing fog could still form in valleys of northern and parts of central Nevada this morning.
Cold front expected to push across the area today.
Showers will continue to diminish northward this morning as the zonal flow pattern slowly transitions to a weak upper level ridge. After these showers finally disappear this afternoon there is a break in the action, except for areas of freezing fog in the east side inland valleys.
623 AM EST Mon Dec 12 2016 Aviation The low that produced 5 to 10 inches of snow across the region is now over northern Lake Huron and continues to move east. A cold front moving across Lake Michigan will usher in another shot of colder air.
Partly sunny and warm conditions expected for this afternoon with winds from the sw ahead of approaching slow moving cold front to the nw.
Low pressure over the Great lakes will quickly drift northeast to Quebec today. allowing cold High pressure over the plains states to build across the Ohio Valley. The high will be the main weather feature across Central Indiana Today and tonight as it quickly moves to the middle Atlantic States late Tuesday night. Surface analysis early this morning showed large Low Pressure over the Great Lakes and cyclonic flow was in place across Indiana. THe cold front associated with the cold front was on schedule to exit Indiana within the next few hours. Strong high pressure was in place over the plains states. thus with the lower level flow remaining slightly cyclonic and soundings suggesting low level saturation.
651 AM EST Mon Dec 12 2016 Colder air will move into the area today following a cold front which moved through this morning. High pressure will build into the area behind the front today providing dry conditions.