Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1108 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2022 (Today and tonight) Synoptically speaking, an upper level ridge remains centered across the Gulf of Mexico, with an upper level trough across the West Coast, placing West Central Texas in southwest flow aloft. A weak cold front is forecast to stall somewhere near the northern Big Country. The current highs across the Big Country are in the lower 70s, but if the front pushes a bit farther south than forecast, these may need to be lowered by a few degrees.
Surface analysis places a low-level blocking ridge firmly planted over the Florida Peninsula, with a series of disturbances along its periphery. Based on this setup, it is not surprising that the 12z sounding at KEY sampled rising geopotential heights at all isobaric levels (particularly in the low-levels).
In terms of fog, we are seeing patchy freezing fog out there and that should dissipate later today. NW flow continues with a low pressure center to our SW, on track to eventually eject out across the Four Corners region.
922 AM PST Tue Dec 6 2022 A trough moving down the West Coast will bring a few showers this morning then scattered showers late today through early Wednesday as the trough moves across Southern California.
As the upper low moves east, surface winds are progged to become more southerly, resulting in dewpoints in the upper 50s and potentially low 60s to be advected towards the region and the aforementioned boundary being pushed north as a warm front.
951 AM PST Tue Dec 6 2022 Fog and low clouds with areas of freezing drizzle and flurries will impact the Inland NW valleys through Wednesday.
We are seeing a mixed bag out there today, with some places seeing more sun, and others socked in with low clouds, freezing fog and/or light snow.
Cloudiness in the high country should linger through much of the day. Temperatures will be still be cooler today with highs mostly in the 40s to around 50 across the plains, and mostly 20s and 30s in the high country. In the synoptic scale the main upper low is off the northern California coast and is expected to drop further southeast into southern Nevada by early Wednesday morning. As the upper low over California begins to move out expect light snowfall to redevelop this evening over the north central mountains (mainly zone 34). Temperatures will be cooler across the plains today with readings mainly in the 40s to around 50. Wednesday, an upper level trough slowly pushes eastward into parts of Utah and western Colorado.
GOES-16 visibile satellite imagery is highlighting broken, low clouds in vicinity of the Lower Keys. The Florida Keys remain locked in a pattern of low-level ridging.
1133 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2022 (Today through Wednesday Night ) A warm front is slowly lifting north early this Tue morning. some dense fog continued as warmer air moves over the cooler air near the SFC. Expect this warm front to lift further north through this afternoon as the upper flow transitions to a more SW direction over AR.
1141 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2022 (The rest of today) Shallow cold front continues to make a slow slog to the southeast this morning across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Front will likely be held up within the higher terrain areas of southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
High pressure will remain in place over the area today, leading to a beautiful day with no mentionable rain chances once again. Afternoon temperatures will be slightly warmer than normal for this time of year, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s under mostly sunny skies. High pressure dominating the area today, leading to dry conditions across the local waters.
The fog/stratus expanded to most of the lower valleys overnight, including portions of the Western Magic Valley and Baker County. Otherwise, expect cold and mostly dry conditions with scattered snow showers in central Idaho, and flurries (at times) in the lower valleys. IFR/LIFR conditions expected through the day due to low clouds and fog across the lower valleys. Otherwise VFR conditions but with a lower mid cloud deck sliding over the region associated with the upper trough.
A weather system will bring a chance of showers to areas northeast of Tucson on Wednesday along with cooler temperatures areawide.
248 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2022 Quiet weather remains in place through Wednesday evening as weak high pressure slowly drifts eastward across the upper Plains. a developing low pressure system across the central Plains will lift north and east across Kansas and into central Nebraska. Boundary layer profiles show there's a good indication of some freezing rain/ wintry mix that will accompany this system before precipitation changes over to mostly snow. To the north, temperatures remain cooler keeping most precipitation as all snow.
Troughing continues to dig across the Northern Plains as another short wave, currently located over central Montana, will round the base of the trough tonight.
(Tonight) The warm front that was slowly progressing through the day across eastern Alabama has finally entered Georgia. Overnight, temperatures will only drop a few degrees and remain in the low to mid 60s.
1148 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2022 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Upper low along the CA Coast this morning with SW flow extending from the Pacific eastward across the region. This low will swing SE today opening up into a trough as it moves into NV Wednesday morning before reaching UT later in the day. Unusually warm weather for this time of year with expected highs today 10 to 15 degrees above normal with readings in the low to mid 70s. Overnight lows mainly in the 50s with a few 40s for the traditional cooler locations with a few 60s SE.
1117 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2022 (Today and tonight) A cold front was slowly making its way southward through the Texas Panhandle early this morning and is expected to move into the extreme southeastern Texas Panhandle by daybreak. Temperatures will likely be much cooler than the surrounding Rolling Plains in the vicinity of Childress due to the cool upslope flow. Meanwhile, an upper level short wave trough continues to dive to the southeast along the California coastline.
1159 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2022 The warm front is located just north of the I-40 corridor as of 10 AM with visibility reduced to 1/2 mile or less across portions of northeast AR and the MO Bootheel.
1111 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2022 A progressive zonal flow regime remains in place across the CONUS with a mid/upper trough impacting the California coast while a 130 knot upper level jet stretched from the Southwest north and eastward into the Great Lakes area. A warm front is progged to lift north across the Southern Plains remaining south of our area until Wed night.
Quiet weather remains in place through Wednesday evening as weak high pressure slowly drifts eastward across the upper Plains. a developing low pressure system across the central Plains will lift north and east across Kansas and into central Nebraska. Boundary layer profiles show there's a good indication of some freezing rain/ wintry mix that will accompany this system before precipitation changes over to mostly snow. To the north, temperatures remain cooler keeping most precipitation as all snow.
Daytime highs have climbed into the low 20s in the west and low 30s in the east. Lows in the west should dip into the teens while the lakeshores and east bottom out in the low-mid 20s. On Wednesday, Upper Michigan will be under the influence of upper level troughing, with an upper level low located west of Hudson Bay. Accumulations of mainly 1 to 2 inches are possible Wednesday, with slightly higher amounts for the higher terrain.
Freezing to ice fog will occur once again in northern and central NV. Forecast has now been update to support the higher chances of early freezing fog development currently being seen in the latest models runs.
Freezing to ice fog will occur once again in northern and central NV.
The ridge remains strong; however, with abundant moisture in place, a few showers have popped up across SE AL, the western FL Panhandle, and the western marine zones.
433 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2022 (Tonight) The warm front that was slowly progressing through the day across eastern Alabama has finally entered Georgia. Overnight, temperatures will only drop a few degrees and remain in the low to mid 60s.
At the 500 mb level, a ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and a trough near the U. At the surface, high pressure will remain to the east near the southeastern U. with weak low pressure to our northwest near the southern High Plains, resulting in continued low level southerly flow across the region which will help keep the boundary layer unseasonably warm and moist.
Light precipitation is possible tonight, as an upper level low pressure system moves eastward across Central California.
Rainfall will diminish rather quickly overnight Wednesday night as the jet progresses northeast of the region, and the aforementioned trough moves across the Rockies, sending an attendant Pacific front eastward through the area.
542 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2022 (Tonight through Wednesday night) A mid/upper level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to lead to warm and rain-free conditions across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. At the surface, a trough over central Mexico onto the western Texas will interact with a high pressure over the eastern seaboard, leading to elevated winds today and Wednesday, especially in the afternoon.
Upper level low continues to work down the coast with the center beginning to push push into the San Luis Obispo area. Any lingering showers will diminish over the next few hours with clearing skies overnight as short wave ridging builds in. This cloud cover should help to keep things a bit warmer but still chilly Wednesday night and should also limit fog potential.
High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will persist through the short term, keeping us in south to southeasterly flow. Winds will increase just slightly Wednesday as troughing develops over the Four Corners.
636 PM EST Tue Dec 6 2022 Occasional showers can be expected at times through the work week as a series of low pressure systems move through the region. A wave of low pressure will ride northeast along it tonight and ahead of the low, a 30 to 40 knot 850 mb jet will shift east across the upper Ohio Valley. Lingering areas of fog in the morning should also dissipate, but clouds will hang around through the day and likely into Wednesday night as a fair amount of moisture will remain in the lower levels.
644 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2022 Tonight through Wednesday: a strong subtropical ridge will persist over the Gulf of Mexico region through the near term. Temperatures today have reached the lower 80s at many locations and expect a few mid 80 readings to be possible tomorrow afternoon assuming we get similar cloud cover. Otherwise, continued frontal moisture convergence and shower chances will remain mostly limited to along/north of the Highway 82 corridor. This high will begin to shift southeast as an upper trough develops to the west and moves north of the area later in the week.
Weak area of elongated low pressure will cross the Ohio Valley overnight.
Low pressure will develop along the eastern CO-NM border on Wednesday in response to an approaching upper low, which this afternoon was just entering central CA. By Wednesday afternoon, the mid level cyclone will be across southern NV entering southern UT. The approach of the intense southern branch of the polar jet ahead of the mid level cyclone will continue to foster lower tropospheric development just to the west/southwest of southwest KS, which will increase the southeasterly moist upslope winds.
731 PM MST Tue Dec 6 2022 Radar returns are quickly diminishing across central CO and CAMs are in agreement as far as only showing a few isolated light snow showers this evening and overnight for the high country, with minimal accumulations. Tonight, the trough will continue to advance bringing the center over southern California or Nevada. Tomorrow, the trough will move over the Great Basin. However, there will be gradually increasing synoptic ascent ahead of the trough.
A nuanced weather situation is setting up this afternoon and evening as warmer air from the west has begun to collide with colder air to the east of the Continental Divide. For areas along and south of the Highway 200 corridor, warmer air is beginning to penetrate the region, with a dramatic increase in temperatures to above freezing for most valley locations and breezy south to southwest winds. Locations across primarily northwest Montana (north of Highway 200) have largely stayed cooler, with cold pools of air lingering in the valley locations. A wintry mix of light snow and freezing drizzle is already starting to be seen, which will likely bring slick conditions due to the combination of light snow and ice accumulations.
125 PM PST Tue Dec 6 2022 A trough moving down the West Coast will bring scattered showers tonight through early Wednesday as the trough moves across Southern California.
304 PM MST Tue Dec 6 2022 Tonight, the trough will continue to advance bringing the center over southern California or Nevada. Tomorrow, the trough will move over the Great Basin. However, there will be gradually increasing synoptic ascent ahead of the trough.
537 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2022 (The rest of this afternoon ) Afternoon surface analysis basically shows two fronts draped across the region, a shallow cold front that is wedged in from south-central OK to far NW AR and up into SW MO near an area of low pressure that has rippled northeast along the front thru the day. Clouds and precip reinforcing the cooler air at the surface north of the front is likely to limit the northward progress of the front itself thru the day on Wednesday.
A mid level ridge dominated the Keys sensible weather today, promoting calm and dry weather over the island chains. Showers have since diminished as the high moisture content has moved to the southwest of Key West tonight. Winds will freshen by tomorrow morning as high pressure over the western Atlantic builds into Florida, causing breezes to become gentle to moderate. A ridge over the western Atlantic will stretch over Florida late tonight and tomorrow resulting in the freshening of the northeast to east breezes to moderate to occasionally fresh.
Main push of accumulating snow already into the far southwest, and still expect the main area of accumulation along to south of Interstate 94, with the higher totals along the ND/SD border area near 3 inches. Troughing continues to dig across the Northern Plains as another short wave, currently located over central Montana, will round the base of the trough tonight.
Particularly in areas where the wedge can erode, afternoon highs may be notably warmer than areas just north that will likely stay socked in with stratus and light northerlies to the north of whatever remnant boundary remains.
A cold front currently stretches from the eastern Great Lakes back through the Mid Mississippi River Valley. This front should make some eastward progress today as a wave of low pressure rides NE along the boundary. Pops will remain highest across north GA today through tomorrow as the cold west-east cold front stalls along/near the north GA state line.
Key Messages: - Precip type remains issue with Thursday storm - Up to two inches possible north of I-80 Water vapor imagery this morning revealing base of northern stream trough was encompassing the northern Plains/upper Midwest. Meanwhile, west coast positive tilt trough has moved ashore into CA. During the morning hours, mix of freezing rain/drizzle appear possible generally over the southern half of the CWA with mix of freezing drizzle/snow north.
Have included a fog mention where dewpoint depressions get the lowest tonight into Wednesday morning. Temperatures for much of the area would support some deposition of ice on elevated surfaces should fog (freezing fog) form. Precip type should largely be rain with even some weak convective activity at times as lapse rates rise, but there remains some potential for low-level wet bulb temps to be cold enough to support light freezing rain early in northwestern portions of the local area, though very few GEFS runs support any this far southeast.
Discussion: The weak cold front to our northwest if forecast to sag south and southeast into our area today before stalling out, perhaps making it to near or just south of our southern border although confidence is not high on exactly how much progress it will make before stalling early tonight.
903 PM PST Tue Dec 6 2022 A trough moving down the West Coast will bring scattered showers tonight through early Wednesday as the trough moves across Southern California.
The eastern portion of this boundary becomes a warm front which pushed into central KY and eastern sections of middle TN into far northeast AL. Further south, a wedge has held tight east of the warm front.
Initially foggy conditions are expected to lift by midmorning today with the high pressure axis settling across the region today resulting in dry weather, mild winds, and partly cloudy skies. High temperatures for today will reach up into the lower 80s over inland areas and in the lower to mid 70s along the coastline.
Mild temperatures and rain will continue will continue until the passage of a cold front this afternoon. High pressure will support a brief bout of dry weather tonight and through the daylight hours on Thursday. Precipitation chances will return to the region once again late Thursday as stronger low pressure low lifts out of the central Plains towards the Great Lakes.
(Today and tonight) With a deep layer ridge in place and plentiful low-level moisture, mild temperatures and low clouds/fog will continue to be the primary weather features for today and tonight.
The latter part of the day will feature some sun as the low clouds scatter out this afternoon. That said, probs for an inch of snow or more per GEFS/CMC data suggest our southeast CWA has the highest potential for seeing accumulating snows.
Canadian high pressure across Saskatchewan is expected to build into the upper Midwest tonight into Wednesday. As such, have sided with cooler highs close to 925 hpa mixout.
The region remains in a very quiet weather pattern as a high pressure lingers over the area. The ridging continues to lead to above normal temperatures and sunny, rain free conditions which are expected to continue on Wednesday.
The upper trough and arctic airmass then looks to depart off to our east by Thursday with 850 mb temps rising from -15C to -25 this evening to around 0C Thursday night. Then an upper trough will dig south from the Gulf of Alaska and along the West coast this weekend. Look for this trough to drift east and a storm system could spread snow from Montana into the northern plains from a Colorado low.
High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will persist through the short term, keeping us in south to southeasterly flow. Winds will increase just slightly Wednesday as troughing develops over the Four Corners. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s across the area for Wednesday.
Weak area of elongated low pressure will cross the Ohio Valley overnight. Widespread precipitation chances will return to the region once again late Thursday as stronger low pressure low lifts out of the central Plains towards the Great Lakes.
1233 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2022 (Rest of today through Wednesday) A large mid level ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to dominate the weather pattern across South Florida for the rest of this afternoon into Wednesday. With many areas having a mainly clear sky tonight combined with light winds, this will allow for low temperatures to drop into the lower 60s across the Lake Okeechobee region. Low temperatures will be warmer near the east coast metro areas where they will drop to around 70. With plenty of sunshine for Wednesday combined with the east to northeasterly wind flow, high temperatures will range from the lower 80s across the east coast to the mid 80s across interior Southwest Florida.
142 AM MST Wed Dec 7 2022 Most areas staying clear this morning with high pressure in the region. Models have been slowly nudging the track of the low further north each run, but have kept the system weak as it races past tonight. Thursday will be similar to today as the trough sweeps to the east. Upper level flow will be from the southwest with a trough along the west coast.
1035 PM MST Tue Dec 6 2022 Radar returns are quickly diminishing across central CO and CAMs are in agreement as far as only showing a few isolated light snow showers this evening and overnight for the high country, with minimal accumulations. Tonight, the trough will continue to advance bringing the center over southern California or Nevada. Tomorrow, the trough will move over the Great Basin. However, there will be gradually increasing synoptic ascent ahead of the trough. Models show a weak upper trough to push across the CWA later Wednesday night into early Thursday afternoon.
1101 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2022 (Tonight through Wednesday night) A mid/upper level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to lead to warm and rain-free conditions across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. At the surface, a trough over central Mexico onto the western Texas will interact with a high pressure over the eastern seaboard, leading to elevated winds today and Wednesday, especially in the afternoon.
After sunrise, a breezy and pleasant day is expected with high temperatures slightly above normal with highs in the lower 80s area-wide. Thursday will remain breezy and dry, with high temperatures once again reaching into the low 80s across the region.
No major changes to the forecast as temperatures are falling as anticipated, into the low to upper 60s.
Forecast remains quiet through the weekend as upper level ridging stays in place over the Gulf of Mexico. A surface level high pressure will keep any significant weather threats at bay. Towards the end of the forecast period, models suggest a low pressure system sweeping across the Plains and into the Great Lakes region. The associated troughing will help shift the upper level ridge further south of FL. Significant impacts are not expected at this time, but cooler temperatures and some showers look possible with the accompanying cold front. Minimal fire weather concerns through the forecast period as light flow continues with high pressure dominating the pattern.
356 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2022 Occasional showers can be expected at times through the work week as a series of low pressure systems move through the region. A weak low pressure system is slowly progressing east across the area early this morning. With the low overhead, weak flow and low level saturation has supported low stratus and some mist/fog across the area. Drier air moves in with the northerly flow helping to slowly improve visibilities and lift the low stratus through the day. High pressure briefly nudges in from the north overnight, but pesky low level moisture still persists.
Warmer and potentially active weather pattern the main messages in the extended time frame.
A weak upper ridge building in from the west will maintain the dry conditions through Wednesday night. Southeast winds will develop late Wednesday night ahead of an approaching upper trough and front which will limit the fog development through Thursday morning.
556 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2022 (Today and tonight) With a deep layer ridge in place and plentiful low-level moisture, mild temperatures and low clouds/fog will continue to be the primary weather features for today and tonight.
Troughing to the west of AZ is bringing in a stream of enhanced moisture across southeastern CA and northern AZ, resulting in organized shower activity to the northwest of the CWA early this morning. As this trough lifts to the northeast across the Great Basin today, the associated surface front will push to the east as well. Ensemble guidance continues to lift the trough northeast across the Rockies through Thursday, with a marginal rebound on mid-level heights across southcentral AZ into Thursday night.