Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
528 PM CST Sun Dec 25 2022 (This evening through Monday) Merry Christmas from all of us at NWS Birmingham! Christmas Day 2022 is certainly a cold one, but thankfully much warmer than where we were just 48 hours ago. Our office here at the Shelby County Airport officially rose above freezing at 11:20am CT, which broke a streak of 58 straight hours below freezing. In this case, we'll take a warmer than expected outcome by a few degrees. All locations with the exception of maybe a few valley locations in the extreme northern counties will rise above freezing this afternoon. I've maintained the previous forecast in terms of having just enough moisture in the low levels to squeeze out some flurries or sprinkles during the day on Monday as the clipper system quickly moves through.
(The rest of tonight) Band of light freezing rain ongoing across south central KS in response to focused frontogenetic zone will continue southeastward overnight with light measurable precip likely to extend into portions of NE OK. A mixture of freezing rain and sleet appear the most likely precip types with wet bulb efficiency reduced by light precip rates. (Monday through Sunday) The cold front associated with the aforementioned storm system will lag the precipitation, passing through the region during the daylight hours tomorrow.
637 PM EST Sun Dec 25 2022 Arctic high pressure will remain the dominant feature through mid-week then shift away from the area as low pressure approaches from the west. Cold and dry high pressure will prevail across the region. High pressure will prevail across the region through mid-week, bringing mostly quiet conditions as well as cool temperatures.
403 PM MST Sun Dec 25 2022 Clipper system is currently dropping southward through the eastern Dakotas this afternoon with upper level ridging upstream over NW US. Warm air advection is ongoing this afternoon with the surface warm front stretching from western ND through central SD. A cold front is sagging southward out of ND this afternoon, with cooler air spilling into NW SD and central SD. Warm air coupled with light freezing rain that was observed this morning has helped crust over snow pack for portions of NW SD. The upper ridge axis will flatten and spread eastward through the week with mild conditions expected. Areas without much snow cover will push into the low 50s, while most other areas will remain in the 30s and low 40s.
606 PM EST Sun Dec 25 2022 Cold high pressure will bring dry conditions and well below normal temperatures into mid week.
It will be another cold tonight, with lows by daybreak on Monday ranging from the single digits across the north and west to the low teens in the Lower Susq Valley. Monday will be a bit milder than the past weekend, with highs ranging from the upper teens across the Allegheny Plateau to near 30 degrees in the Lower Susq Valley. Lows Monday night will range from the low teens across northern PA to the upper teens in the Lower Susq.
611 PM EST Sun Dec 25 2022 (Through Tonight) Persistent below freezing low temperatures have prompted another Hard Freeze Warning for all inland NE FL and SE GA areas, and the SE GA coast, lows range from 20-27 degrees tonight.
648 PM EST Sun Dec 25 2022 A large, intense low pressure system swirling north through eastern Canada slowly relaxes its icy grip on our area. A high pressure system will build across the area tonight. Winds will relax in the lower elevations, while continuing in the higher elevations, but not as strong. The relaxing winds combined with clear skies and snow cover will allow low temperatures tonight to be on the lower side of guidance. With temperatures dropping again tonight, the wind chills in the higher elevations will drop again as well. Therefore, will continue the Wind Chill Advisory in the highest elevations of the northern West Virginia mountains through Monday morning. A few isolated snow showers are possible early Monday night as a weakening clipper quickly slides south/east, with another chilly night across the area, albeit warmer than past nights.
437 PM MST Sun Dec 25 2022 A ridge of high pressure will move slowly across the Great Basin through Monday as the northwest flow pattern diminishes across the forecast area. Expected snow accumulations across the higher elevations of these mountain ranges will be in the 2-4" range by Monday morning.
544 PM CST Sun Dec 25 2022 (This evening through Monday) There is a low chance for some light freezing rain in north central Oklahoma late tonight. If this occurs, temperatures should be just cold enough to support freezing rain.
Cirrus shield shifts back to the south across Central/South Florida on Monday and expect Mostly Sunny skies and temps just a slight notch higher than on Sunday in the mid/upper 40s for SE GA and into the lower 50s for NE FL. (Through Tonight) Persistent below freezing low temperatures have prompted another Hard Freeze Warning for all inland NE FL and SE GA areas, and the SE GA coast, lows range from 20-27 degrees tonight.
(This afternoon through Monday) Temperatures will top out in the lower 30s to lower 40s across the majority of the CWA this Christmas afternoon with highs in the mid- to-upper 20s across the higher terrain of far north Georgia. Generally clear skies overnight will allow for unhindered radiational cooling and lows in the lower teens to lower 20s. Across the higher elevations of far north Georgia, temperatures will struggle to rise above freezing. A Clipper-type low pressure system will race across the Ohio River Valley tomorrow evening through the overnight hours. We will just have to see if this precip falling into the dry air below ~900 mb will evaporate and moisten the lower levels enough for said precip to reach the surface.
257 PM MST Sun Dec 25 2022 Key Messages: 1) Slight cooler Monday for much of the plains and I25 corridor 2) Light snow in northern Sawatch Range Sunday night Challenging temperature forecast for today on the plains with a shallower layer of cool air remaining in some low level areas. Behind the trough, weak high pressure will move southward into Kansas. The eastern plains will be on the western edge of the high pressure. Modestly cooler airmass will result in cooler highs on the plains, especially for the locations where the cold level air mixed out on Sunday. Temperature forecast near the western edge of these high pressure systems can be tricky, so will have to watch for some possibly cooler highs on the plains and I25 corridor.
927 PM EST Sun Dec 25 2022 Arctic high pressure will remain the dominant feature through mid-week then shift away from the area as low pressure approaches from the west. Cold and dry high pressure will prevail across the region. High pressure will prevail across the region through mid-week, bringing mostly quiet conditions as well as cool temperatures.
May lead to a light glaze on top of the already fallen snow; also freezing on car windshields as relayed by off-duty NWS employee traveling between Newton and Des Moines. -Warming trend for the second half of the week Christmas day will be in the teens which is still noticeably warmer compared to most of this concluding week.
501 PM CST Sun Dec 25 2022 (This afternoon through Monday night) High temps have moderated today in wake of a cold surface anticyclone that has moved e of the area. Clouds overnight will also favor low temps trending noticeably warmer. Meanwhile a shrtwv trof within nw flow aloft moving sewd thru the central plains tonight/early Mon AM will push a weak cold front into the PB/SE NM Mon AM.
That will effectively make the stronger winds retreat into the higher mountain areas, but still remain quite strong and gusty through most of tonight. Therefore, Denver metro should be able to hit 50F again, while the northeast plains will stay a little cooler in the post frontal airmass with upper 30s to mid 40s.
218 PM MST Sun Dec 25 2022 A ridge of high pressure will move slowly across the Great Basin through Monday as the northwest flow pattern diminishes across the forecast area. Expected snow accumulations across the higher elevations of these mountain ranges will be in the 2-4" range by Monday morning.
With troughing across the area, we remain below normal but much warmer than previous nights with the moderating airmass and lingering cloud cover.
1019 PM MST Sun Dec 25 2022 Clipper system is currently dropping southward through the eastern Dakotas this afternoon with upper level ridging upstream over NW US. Warm air advection is ongoing this afternoon with the surface warm front stretching from western ND through central SD. A cold front is sagging southward out of ND this afternoon, with cooler air spilling into NW SD and central SD. Warm air coupled with light freezing rain that was observed this morning has helped crust over snow pack for portions of NW SD. The upper ridge axis will flatten and spread eastward through the week with mild conditions expected. Areas without much snow cover will push into the low 50s, while most other areas will remain in the 30s and low 40s.
With the colder air pushing in, high temperatures will be much cooler today with most of the area warming into the 30's and 40's. Tomorrow, much warmer temperatures are forecasted with the flow across the area mainly from the southwest and mostly sunny skies. Some 70's also wouldn't be out of the question using the higher guidance 850mb temps which is in the upper teens celsius. Currently don't have confidence for that yet, but am definitely on the higher side of guidance. Otherwise, the next low pressure system is forecasted to take shape just west of the area, but not move through during this period. If any precipitation were to occur, it would be light rain during the day and perhaps a light wintry mix of rain/freezing rain/snow at night.
The cooler airmass will keep well northeast of the forecast area. So temperatures are still expected to warm diurnally today into the 50s, slightly cooler than yesterday's highs with north northeast winds through much of the day and some passing high clouds.
I've maintained the previous forecast in terms of having just enough moisture in the low levels to squeeze out some flurries or sprinkles during the day on Monday as the clipper system quickly moves through.
Other than the light freezing rain across north central Oklahoma early this morning, no additional precip is anticipated with this front.
Snow levels roughly 6k to 7k feet MSL, and pockets of freezing rain expected mainly in east Oregon. Cold air has persisted in most of the lower valleys with winds too light to scour it out. This means freezing rain is again possible in the valleys of Baker County and as far east as the Oregon Lower Treasure Valley. Southeasterly surface winds will increase late Monday as the next strong Pacific trough nears the coast. The winds along with continued warm advection aloft should scour the remaining cold air out of the valleys later Monday and end the freezing rain threat.
1236 AM EST Mon Dec 26 2022 Arctic high pressure will remain the dominant feature through mid-week then shift away from the area as low pressure approaches from the west. However, the update will feature min temperatures one to two of degrees warmer. Cold and dry high pressure will prevail across the region. High pressure will prevail across the region through mid-week, bringing mostly quiet conditions as well as cool temperatures.
1017 PM MST Sun Dec 25 2022 A ridge of high pressure will move slowly across the Great Basin through Monday as the northwest flow pattern diminishes across the forecast area. Expected snow accumulations across the higher elevations of these mountain ranges will be in the 2-4" range by Monday morning.
(Today through Tuesday) Some cirrus clouds have moved into central and eastern Texas early this morning ahead of a mid and upper level trough that will be moving from the central High Plains into the southern Plains through the day today. The main result will be a northerly wind shift that will last for about 24 hours before becoming southerly again, a final shot at freezing low temperatures for northern and eastern portions of the CWA Tuesday morning, and highs on Tuesday that will be similar or slightly cooler than what is expected for today (mid 50s to low 60s).
While the surface feature (~1015mb low pressure system) will stay south of us, the mid level moisture in association with the system will move over the lake.
These clear skies, along with west to southwest flow on the surface has allowed most of the CWA to climb above the freezing mark with just a few hold outs across the far north and northwest.
The upper- level ridge that is currently keeping things warm will be displaced by late Tuesday. Quiet weather continues for the remainder of Christmas day and Monday as a ridge dominates the forecast, keeping us several degrees above normal. The pattern shift is still expected to come Tuesday when a strong atmospheric river event sets up to break down the ridge that's been dominating our weather.
1045 PM CST Sun Dec 25 2022 With continued mid-level moistening across north central Oklahoma and wetbulb temperatures in the upper 20s, we have issued a winter weather advisory for the possibility of light freezing drizzle/rain. Pratt and Wichita are already reporting light precipitation and continued moistening may allow very light amounts of freezing precipitation across Kay and Noble counties. (This evening through Monday) There is a low chance for some light freezing rain in north central Oklahoma late tonight. If this occurs, temperatures should be just cold enough to support freezing rain.
317 AM EST Mon Dec 26 2022 Low pressure dropping southeast into the Tennesse Valley today and tonight will clouds to the area.
Light freezing rain has ended across the area, leaving a light glaze of ice over portions of central and eastern Kansas. Still with some light freezing rain, sleet and snow think a short fused winter weather advisory is warranted. A closed low was noted over the Gulf of Alaska and upper level ridging nosed into CA. The one hiccup in the precip forecast may be the low level dry air in place ahead of the front. Continued warm air advection around 925MB is expected to bring a warm nose in along the front transitioning the precip from an initial light snow to a mix and eventually freezing rain for the western half of the forecast area were the warm nose should be strongest.
QPF fields also continue to show light measurable snow amounts in the high mountains north of I-70 through about 12Z Monday morning. That will effectively make the stronger winds retreat into the higher mountain areas, but still remain quite strong and gusty through most of tonight. Therefore, Denver metro should be able to hit 50F again, while the northeast plains will stay a little cooler in the post frontal airmass with upper 30s to mid 40s.
However, impacts are expected to remain next to nil as surface temps remain above freezing and the very light precip limits wet- bulbing.
* Warmer conditions expected Tuesday into late week with off and on chances of rain late week. As dry northwest winds kick in behind this system, stratus clouds appear to quickly shallow limiting the potential for freezing drizzle. As upper low rotates through north central into eastern Missouri on Monday, could see additional light snow or flurries mainly along and east of highway 65. Strong northwest winds on the backside of the clipper system will advect cooler air into the region on Monday making it a struggle for temperatures to warm much throughout the day. Warmer conditions are expected Tuesday into late week as upper level ridge builds into the area. A strong cold front will progress through the area in the hours before sunrise, shifting winds to the northwest, increasing winds, and bringing in MVFR ceilings.
334 AM EST Mon Dec 26 2022 High pressure builds toward the region starting Tuesday, supporting a gradual warming trend and light winds. Temperatures will be near normal into mid-week, then stronger ridging builds late in the week to support above normal temperatures.
Gusty north winds will usher in some cooler air into southwest Kansas today behind a cold front that will be moving into Oklahoma and the Panhandle of Texas early Monday morning.
1131 PM CST Sun Dec 25 2022 (The rest of tonight) Band of light freezing rain ongoing across south central KS in response to focused frontogenetic zone will continue southeastward overnight with light measurable precip likely to extend into portions of NE OK. A mixture of freezing rain and sleet appear the most likely precip types with wet bulb efficiency reduced by light precip rates.
327 AM EST Mon Dec 26 2022 Light snow chances are expected today with a weakening area of low pressure. Dry weather an a warming trend is then expected through late in the week under high pressure.
1259 AM EST Mon Dec 26 2022 Cold high pressure will bring dry conditions and well below normal temperatures into mid week.
May lead to a light glaze on top of the already fallen snow; also freezing on car windshields as relayed by off-duty NWS employee traveling between Newton and Des Moines.
918 PM CST Sun Dec 25 2022 With continued mid-level moistening across north central Oklahoma and wetbulb temperatures in the upper 20s, we have issued a winter weather advisory for the possibility of light freezing drizzle/rain. Pratt and Wichita are already reporting light precipitation and continued moistening may allow very light amounts of freezing precipitation across Kay and Noble counties. (This evening through Monday) There is a low chance for some light freezing rain in north central Oklahoma late tonight. If this occurs, temperatures should be just cold enough to support freezing rain.
1040 PM CST Sun Dec 25 2022 (This afternoon through Monday night) High temps have moderated today in wake of a cold surface anticyclone that has moved e of the area. Clouds overnight will also favor low temps trending noticeably warmer. Meanwhile a shrtwv trof within nw flow aloft moving sewd thru the central plains tonight/early Mon AM will push a weak cold front into the PB/SE NM Mon AM.
Despite the front, temperatures are expected to be even warmer this afternoon compared to yesterday with mid to upper 50s for most locations. Tonight, temperatures fall back to near freezing for the majority. Winds flip around to southwesterly on Tuesday and in combination with building heights leads to even warmer temperatures.
1241 AM EST Mon Dec 26 2022 High pressure will bring dry weather most of this week with a warming trend. New Year's weekend will be mild, but could also be rainy as low pressure approaches from the Ohio Valley. High pressure centered over the southeast USA will extend into southern New England today. Winds will also continue to diminish, which will also make it feel a bit warmer. Rather weak high pressure at the surface, so not much synoptic support for precipitation. A gradual warmup is anticipated this week as closed low lifts well into Canada and is replaced by ridging along the East Coast courtesy of the building subtropical ridge.
Through out the day we will transition from northwest to southwest flow aloft as a low pressure system begins to impact the West Coast. Winds will start to increase out of the southwest tonight and end up being gusty tomorrow mainly in the higher terrain. The main low pressure system is expected to make landfall in Washington while the associated jet extends further south into California. Once the deep moisture gets here precipitation develops in the higher terrain mainly after sunset.
Influence of deep E CONUS trough aloft remains over the region this morning although it is expected to gradually weaken and shift east into the Atlantic by mid week allowing ridging to build over the area during the latter half of the week. At the surface, ridging over the Gulf coast and SE U.
Tomorrow will be a different story however as 850 mb temps warm quite a bit with brief ridging aloft and bring highs up into the 40s across most of the area and even a few 50s across parts of the southwest.
A brief warm-up just ahead of the cold front left much of the area with non-diurnal highs just before midnight. Flurries are possible through about noon as the low departs.
359 AM MST Mon Dec 26 2022 Short wave trough is passing to the northeast of Colorado and pushed a cold front through the area last evening. Just enough lift, instability, and moisture behind the cold front to produce a few rain/snow showers across the plains. Highs will be a little cooler today with readings in the upper 30s to 40s across northeast Colorado. Some hints of a mountain wave on the east slopes, but it should remain over the higher foothills and mountains where gusts to 60 mph will be possible. Warm air advection will be decently strong in our forecast area with the downslope, westerly flow aiding in warming the low levels as well.
911 AM EST Mon Dec 26 2022 Low pressure dropping southeast into the Tennesse Valley today and tonight will clouds to the area.
Snow may not be reaching the ground quite yet, but it should start over the next couple of hours as the lower levels moisten. Since the ground is well below freezing, expect any snow to immediately stick, which could cause untreated roadways to become slick. Temperatures are only expected to top out a degree or two above freezing today and skies will be cloudy, which will allow any snowfall to stick around through tonight. Tuesday morning lows are expected to be in the low 20s, but we'll finally warm well above freezing in the afternoon hours on Tuesday.
At the upper levels, ridge sits over the lee side of the Rockies and northwest flow aloft the forecast area.
510 AM CST Mon Dec 26 2022 (Today through Tuesday Night) A low pressure system moving through the Midwest will increase WAA across SE Texas today bringing high temperatures this afternoon into the mid to upper 50s (and wouldn't out-rule a 60 degree reading here and there). This passing low pressure system will usher in a weak/dry cold front tonight bringing us a temporary cool down into Tuesday. Low temperatures tonight will be in the low 30s south of I- 10, upper 20s between I-10 and Huntsville, and then low to mid 20s north of Huntsville. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the low to mid 50s for most of the region. South to southeasterly flow will develop Tuesday night ushering in warmer temperatures compared to tonight with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Moderation has thus far been mostly forestalled by a high pressure system centered along the central Gulf Coast maintaining moderate to fresh northerly breezes. In addition, the long wave trough remains anchored over the eastern United States with a far reaching swath of deep layered moisture extending from the Yucatan through the Keys area and out northeastward into the Atlantic. The Keys area will remain fairly close to the ridge's trade wind belt, resulting in winds peaking and lulling through the period, largely averaging moderate as they eventually shift easterly.
603 AM EST Mon Dec 26 2022 High pressure will bring dry weather most of this week with a warming trend. New Year's weekend will be mild, but could also be rainy as low pressure approaches from the Ohio Valley. High pressure centered over the southeast USA will extend into southern New England today. Winds will also continue to diminish, which will also make it feel a bit warmer. Rather weak high pressure at the surface, so not much synoptic support for precipitation. A gradual warmup is anticipated this week as closed low lifts well into Canada and is replaced by ridging along the East Coast courtesy of the building subtropical ridge.
(Today and tonight) A weak cold front will through the area this morning but will have little effect on our weather, other than shifting winds to the north in its wake.