Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Late Friday night/early Saturday widespread showers and thunderstorms will begin to taper off from southwest to northeast as an upper level trough crosses western Kansas.
1201 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016 WITH THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF KCLL AND KUTS. /ISSUED 847 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/ A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SE TEXAS AND NOW EXTENDS FROM ABOUT JACKSON MS TO NEAR WACO TO NEAR DEL RIO. TRIMMED POPS BACK A LITTLE BUT STILL FEEL SOME SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE CLOSEST TO THE WARM FRONT OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES.
Otherwise, temperatures will be near normal in the low 60s to around 70 for highs. Byrd Models still have some placement issues with the area of low pressure with the NAM further north than the GFS, and the ECMWF somewhere in between. For now feel that warm front to develop and lift north across forecast area tonight, stalling out along the I70 corridor. With surface dewpts in the low to mid 60s, will see surface based CAPES in excess of 2000 J/kg, but shear will be weak.
THE HIGH OVER LOW BLOCKING PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD MEANING NO SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA BRINGING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA. WE WOULD PROBABLY BE QUITE A BIT COOLER IF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS WERE A LITTLE LESS ROBUST. BUT ALLOWED FOR SOME WARMING AS 85H TEMPERATURES DO WARM A LITTLE AND OUR MID LEVEL MOISTURE GETS WRUNG OUT WITH THE BUILDING UPPER HIGH TO OUR NORTH. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AND UTILIZING SOME OF THE HIGHER GUIDANCE WINDS WE ARE STILL NOT MORE THAN 10 TO 15 MPH SUSTAINED TODAY.
1203 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 841 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/ TEMPS AS OF 01Z HAVE FALLEN FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM THE MID 80S NOW DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY IS VERY WEAKLY DEFINED.
THIS WARM FRONT HAS BEEN THE CATALYST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO A FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION THROUGH THE MORNING. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL END UP THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT IN TIME SINCE THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL SHIFT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL INTO EAST TEXAS. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
246 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016 AN UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO TODAY. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AND STORM SYSTEM OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TODAY.
320 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 A few showers and thunderstorms are possible across the area today as a weak cold front moves through.
Temperatures are already down into the low to mid 70s across much of the area but they will probably not fall too much more given dewpoints are mainly running in the lower 70s. The mid/upper level ridge again dominates the weather for Sunday in especially the southeast. Temperatures will moderate some with the ridge beginning to retreat. Short wave over Hudson Bay at the beginning of the period will dig southeast and carve out a trough across the northeast United States.
422 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Aviation sections updated An upper ridge of high pressure will keep warmer than normal temperatures over the area for the next few days.
203 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Mainly clear to partly cloudy skies are expected under high pressure tonight. A weak cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms into the region Sunday afternoon and evening.
652 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Showers and thunderstorms will develop across the region today ahead of an approaching cold front. High pressure will start to build back into the region on Monday resulting in dry weather through mid-week. The main concern for today is the approaching cold front and thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Monday will be mostly dry but slightly windy as we will be between 2 systems, a ridge building in from the west, and the low pressure system moving off to the NE. Temps across the region will be slightly cooler than previous days as the cold front brings cooler air over the region.
652 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Upper level high pressure in place with hot and humid weather through the weekend.
102 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 High pressure will continue to move away from the region tonight. This will allow low pressure to track east across the northern Great Lakes into Ontario on Sunday dragging a cold front across the region.
Best low and mid level theta-e ridging occurs this afternoon across Colorado, closer to where the upper low continues to spin. Low and mid level winds turn easterly and with additional afternoon cloud cover, expect a cooler day and have compromised again with NAM and GFS MOS high temperatures.
An upper ridge of high pressure will keep warmer than normal temperatures over the area for the next few days.
400 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Upper ridge continues to weaken somewhat over the next couple of days but remains the dominant feature over the region. Should see some increase in convective coverage each day as moisture slowly increases and deepens and the weak wave traversing the western Atlantic on the underside of the upper ridge edges toward the Carolina/Georgia coastal area.
/issued 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016/ Water vapor imagery shows a rather vigorous upper low spinning over AZ this morning with SW flow bringing abundant moisture across our region. This low will move slowly east over the next couple of days before weakening into an elongated trough over the Rockies.
The expanding west-to- east oriented subtropical ridge to our north will be the dominant driver of our local weather through the short term period. As said yesterday, fortunately our relative position a little south of the subtropical ridge axis will keep heat from getting out of control although high temperatures will be at least a few degrees above normal in all locations. The easterly low level flow regime (which is also a local symptom of being just south of the tropical ridge axis) will not be most conducive for efficient transport of gulf moisture up into the region.
with minor impulses undercutting building upper ridge.
317 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016 The vigorous upper level trof was moving through the Arrowhead at 07Z/2am. Meanwhile, at the surface, high pressure covered the forecast area with plenty of stratus and patchy fog. Elsewhere, with upper ridging building across the region, no rain is expected. This is in response to the low level jet/vorticity max moving eastward over the area, and an approaching cold front. Thunderstorms will continue on Monday as the cold front moves into the region by Monday afternoon. Will have the highest pops along and on either side of the cold front.
Otherwise, invigorated cu have developed over the high mountains as well as sw-ne across Laramie County.
343 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 High pressure centered to the north will prevail into Monday. Low pressure will then persist through late week. A weak upper low will drift west toward the coast today. Temps warming into the low to mid 90s combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s and upper height falls will support better coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon.
An upper level low will drift to the southwest along the mid and upper Texas coastal areas bringing slightly increased moisture to South Central Texas.
Currently surface and upper level high pressure are over the region, while low level moisture levels remain high with dew point temperatures are in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
414 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016 A large upper level height ridge will remain the dominate weather feature for the Midsouth for most of this week. This upper ridge was centered over the Carolinas early this morning, but will retrograde to the southern plains by midweek in response to height falls over the northeast U.
338 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Analysis of discrete low level echoes on KBYX and surface obs in the region indicate the trough/wave axis (designated as Invest99l for more than a week) is currently near the eastern portion of our Straits waters. Much of the service area currently has northeast winds thanks to the present trough alignment. Under mostly cloudy skies, the current temperatures along the Keys island chain are in the lower 80s.
An offshore low pressure trough across the northeastern Pacific Ocean will approach the northwestern United States the next few days. The proximity of the low pressure trough will result in a gradual decrease in the inland temperatures this week.
1149 PM MDT SAT AUG 27 2016 SW flow remains in place across the plains with a mid-upper level trough still in place across the desert southwest. A weak H5 low will be situated over the four corners region on Monday with elongated high pressure in place across the Southeastern States.
Elsewhere, skies are mostly clear with temps in the low/mid 70s. The upper ridge will remain anchored over Virginia today with ESE upper level flow across Central Alabama. Highs will once again be in the low/mid 90s with max heat indices generally in the 98-102 degree range. Will keep conditions dry area wide overnight with lows in the low/mid 70s. 19 Warm and overall dry conditions will remain in place as the main ridge axis will remain firmly parked over the area. At some point in the extended we will begin to swap back to a southerly flow, until then the mean flow will be from the east as we remain on southern side of the high pressure in place.
Not a whole lot of change expected the next several days, though an approaching trough will bring some cooling by mid-week.
The lower ceilings and visibility restrictions will lift in the mid to late morning with a few sites having convection developing with the heat of the day especially for those along and south of Interstate 20. /issued 914 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/ Upper low circulating over southeast Texas has enabled convection to sustain itself well after sunset this evening. For the update, did increase pops markedly across north central Louisiana and deep East Texas closer to the center of the upper low where storms where training earlier with showers ongoing at this time.
Overview: Large closed upper level ridge remains fixed along the mid Atlantic coast. Tonight: High pressure builds across the region in earnest leading to a quiet night overall with some fog potential and a bit cooler compared to the last few nights. Low amplitude ridging slides across the area Monday, resulting in few sensible weather concerns. High temperatures a few degrees warmer than Sunday as 850mb temperatures continue to climb. Will introduce some scattered shower/tstm chances for eastern upper and northwest lower later Monday night as narrow 925-850mb theta-e ridge noses into the area, with modest mid level lapse rates between 6-7 degc/km.
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 High pressure will persist over the region through today.
459 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 High pressure will move to the east today. A low in Quebec will drag a warm front across the area tonight, followed by a cold front on Monday.
High pressure nudges into the northern plains on Monday as upper ridge begins to push north toward Montana.
Upper ridge still oriented east-to-west across the area, along with a sloppy surface pattern, have created a fairly stagnant pattern both at the surface and aloft. Models continue to advertise mid-level cooling but even if that does occur, convective temps remain in the lower 90s and will limit our storm chances. A little more confident of scattered coverage over a larger area on Monday, as the upper ridge starts to break down. Not much to focus convection, so most areas should have ample opportunity to warm into the low 90s with heat index values touching 100.
104 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 High pressure will build across the region this evening then move to the east Sunday. A low in Quebec will drag a warm front across the area Sunday night, followed by a cold front on Monday.
This is a region of deeper moisture just south of the ridge axis and an area of theta-e advection. The high pressure will gradually shift further east today allowing the return flow to lift north. Surface dew points will rise back into the low 70s for much of central Iowa this afternoon. High temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 80s.
620 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 A few showers and thunderstorms are possible across the area today as a weak cold front moves through.
A change to cooler temperatures still looks on track into the early part of the week, but the amount of precipitation with the systems moving through the middle of the week into the weekend continues to diminish as newer model runs come in. The upper level trough that, with the thermal trough shifted inland, brought us the above normal temperatures shifts east today. As the upper level trough continues to move towards the coast the 700 mb winds increase with the pressure gradient tightening again in the afternoon. The lower conditions will make some inland progress tonight.
Anticipate scattered showers and storms to begin developing move over the coastal waters tonight as the coastal trough/low over the northern Texas coast moves further west.
No major changes were needed for the dawn update as warm, moist air has enfiltrated the Upper Ohio Region under broad upper high pressure. For now, have increased POPs mainly over areas north of I 70 where the ridge and mid level temperatures show weakness, but have limited the numbers to the "scattered/chance" category given weak flow and questionable boundary focus. Low pressure is forecast to dig over Eastern Canada, with trough extension over the Northeast U.
Another active thunderstorm day should be in store as a weak upper low continues to drift toward New Mexico from the west.
a warm front is expected to lift northward into the area. Any thunderstorm activity is expected to move east as the cold front moves into the area tonight. temps will cool a bit behind the cold front for Monday.
310 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016 The 08z surface analysis indicated that the upper level ridge axis was remaining across the southeast U. with generally clear skies and temps in the lower 70s. In the short term, the models are indicating that a weakness in the ridge axis will occur across Southern Middle Tennessee and into northeast Alabama today. Have compromised involving todays high temps between the cooler GFS and warmer NAM temps. The models are in similar agreement involving keeping the upper ridge axis across the region, limiting much of shra/tsra development.
413 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 High pressure along the New England coast today gradually works offshore, while a cold front approaches from the Great Lakes.
325 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016 The upper level pattern consists of a stationary trough over the Four-Corners region and a high pressure ridge extending from the Missouri Valley to the Mid Atlantic states. Water vapor imagery indicates that a couple of upper level disturbances are currently working their way slowly west along the southern flank of the East Coast ridge.
657 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 High pressure will slowly slides off the New England coast through tonight.
400 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016 High pressure will remain over the Mid Atlantic through Monday before moving offshore.
354 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 High pressure will slowly slides off the New England coast through tonight.
Deep layer ridging will prevail locally through today.
1140 PM MDT SAT AUG 27 2016 06Z TAF CYCLE Weak, closed low aloft centered just northwest of KFLG to slowly edge closer to the NM/AZ line this forecast pd. Ahead of the low, perturbed southwest flow aloft will continue to support at least isolated SHRA/TSRA during the overnight. An upper level low pressure system will slide through the area Sunday and spawn yet another round of storms for central and eastern New Mexico.
352 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Water vapor imagery shows a rather vigorous upper low spinning over AZ this morning with SW flow bringing abundant moisture across our region. This low will move slowly east over the next couple of days before weakening into an elongated trough over the Rockies.
An upper low over Arizona will move east to the four corners tonight. High pressure will move in tomorrow behind this system, allowing for a drying and warming trend for the first part of the upcoming week.
135 AM MDT SUN AUG 28 2016 SW flow remains in place across the plains with a mid-upper level trough still in place across the desert southwest.
549 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016 The pattern aloft featured southwest flow across the Central Plains ahead of a closed low pressure system in Arizona. Starting out Monday morning, weak flow aloft is expected to be in place, as high pressure sits over the east-southeastern CONUS, while a weak area of low pressure is located over the desert southwest. Through the first half of the work week, that southwestern upper low continues to fill, becoming more phased in with high pressure working to reestablish itself over the south central CONUS.
Tue into Fri will see increasing SFC ridging, leading to fair weather for the most part. Could see increased cloud cover and maybe some isolated showers on Wed as a thermal trough drops through and brings 850mb temps down to around 6C. Weak low pressure sliding across the area will bring continued low cloud cover through much of the night.
Sunday looks like more of the same with the upper high still centered to the east of the area.
154 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Upper level high pressure in place with hot and humid weather through the weaken. The weather pattern continues to remain fairly consistent with hot and humid conditions under upper ridge. Do have some weak low level convergence and a ripple rotating around the upper high this afternoon. Upper level ridging overhead continues.
225 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Upper level high pressure in place with hot and humid weather through the weekend.
Upper level flow begins to shift to the southwest in response to an upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of Alaska slowly moving southward.
An upper level trough, located over southwest New Mexico at 00z Sunday, will begin to lift northeast towards southwest Kansas by the early afternoon. Some mid to high level moisture preceding this upper level trough should result in more afternoon clouds compared to yesterday afternoon. This combined with some slight cooling around the 850mb level from the southeasterly winds this afternoon will result in highs being only a few degrees cooler than yesterday. Given where the better moisture and instability will be located early tonight will place the higher chances for this convection west of highway 83. The chance for thunderstorms will continue through at least the first half of the work week as subtle upper level disturbances crosses western Kansas as they rotate around an upper high that will be sliding/building west towards the mid to lower Mississippi Valley.
700 mb west winds diminish this morning and remain light through tonight as a weak 700/850 mb ridge builds back across southern Wisconsin. 591DM broad mid level ridging is expected. 925 temps rise just a smidge into the lower 20s celsius with a better hint of a return flow.
though with the upper level low edging closer. This should keep overnight lows a few degrees warmer than the past few nights given increasing cloud cover. Sunday looks a little more active for the mountains as the upper low edges closer. southeasterly sfc flow should keep dew points in the lower to mid 50s across the eastern counties.
Not much change with the 595 dm ridge holding strong centered just to the NW across the Mid-Atlantic. For today, the mid-level ridge will show some signs of slight weakening as an easterly wave moves closer to the GA/SC coast. 9 inches this afternoon with the higher values being near the 90th percentile for late August. With the low-level convergence and high PW values, expect coverage will be a bit more widespread than yesterday afternoon and increased PoPs. This will also lead to low temperatures falling off into the low to mid 60s.
Starting Monday, a ridge of high pressure will be building just east of the Northern Rockies.
At the surface, a weak lee trough is located just east of the Rockies. This trough is ahead of the main upper level low, seen on water vapor imagery pivoting across northern Arizona and southern Utah. Due to the low confidence in fog development, decided to remove fog mention from the forecast for all locations except southwest Nebraska and extreme northeast Colorado where dewpoint depressions are only 2-4 degrees at this hour.
301 AM MDT SUN AUG 28 2016 The radar mosaic this morning is clearly showing cyclonic rotation around the closed low that looks to be over central Arizona. A few showers and storms have popped up over Arizona at this hour which is to be expected thanks to the lift supplied by the low pressure itself. Models agree that this low will shift eastward through the day straddling the New Mexico and Colorado border as it does so.
The area will remain between upper low to our west and the weak ridge to our east the next several days. Perhaps the one area that will be a bit more favored will be northern into western Oklahoma as the afore mentioned upper low approaches the Southern Plains by the middle of the upcoming week. Otherwise, models are not quite as bullish with the building of the ridge late in the week and over the upcoming holiday weekend. This would keep chances of rain lingering over the area and perhaps slightly cooler temps than previously thought for the latter part of the forecast and beyond.
304 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Low pressure will track east across the northern Great Lakes into Ontario today dragging a cold front across the region.
Along with the warmer temperatures, humidity will increase a bit as afternoon dew points climb to near 70 over the eastern two thirds of the CWA.
405 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Showers and thunderstorms will develop across the region today ahead of an approaching cold front. High pressure will start to build back into the region on Monday resulting in dry weather through mid-week. The main concern for today is the approaching cold front and thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Monday will be mostly dry but slightly windy as we will be between 2 systems, a ridge building in from the west, and the low pressure system moving off to the NE. Temps across the region will be slightly cooler than previous days as the cold front brings cooler air over the region.
302 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 High pressure will slowly slides off the New England coast through tonight.
325 AM MDT SUN AUG 28 2016 An upper level low over northern Arizona will slowly move east through the next 24 hours and be over northwest New Mexico 12z Monday morning. A wave ahead of the low is producing mid and high clouds over eastern Colorado. Expect temperatures to be a few degrees warmer today with highs mainly in the mid to upper 80s over northeast Colorado. Will have to the highest pops, 30-40 percent here. However, could see a few weak showers and storms linger past midnight as the upper level low moves closer.
The low is more or less now stacked and wrapping up in place seen equally well aloft on the water vapor. So as this system continues to remain uncertain as to exactly where, the NHC chance for cyclone development has gone back up from 40 to 60 percent over the next 5 days. The GFS and Euro take a similar look with the Westerlies taking all week long to push a broad trough now approaching the U. NW coast and slowly across the Rockies for no help to us on temps with any possible cold fronts.
A weak upper level low is located over the western Gulf, just east of Galveston. Models continue to suggest high rain chances today as a weak upper low over the Gulf drifts slowly W-SW today.
330 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Upper level high pressure in place with hot and humid weather through the weekend.