Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A STATIONARY FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SW KS THOUGH NRN MISSOURI WAS SEPARATING AIRMASSES WITH HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND COOLER MOIST/LOWER CLOUD BASE CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH. SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORMS WERE ADVANCING NORTHWARD INTO THE COOLER AIR, WHILE A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, AT THE EDGE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT, ALL WITH SLOW NORTHEAST STORM MOTIONS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST WEST OF THE DRYLINE AND IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EAST.
139 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
128 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
414 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 TODAY WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
This front will keep winds breezy today, and max temperatures will be cooler today than they were yesterday. The large upper-level low pressure system is forecast to drop south which will again spread more showers and potentially more thunderstorms over the region late Wednesday through the end of the week. There is a bit uncertainty as to how much impact this low will have on the region, however, but the best chance for precipitation looks to be more limited to north central Idaho, Lemhi County, and southwestern Montana at this time. Some cooler air will remain over the region in the wake of the low, but temperatures are expected to remain near normal. By the weekend, there is potential for a drier ridge pattern to influence the region which could limit precipitation activity and bring a warmer temperature trend.
The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features a trough across the southwestern CONUS, with downstream ridging across the Ohio Valley. This ridging will amplify over the region through the short-term period, bringing continued dry and mild conditions. Overnight lows will be very similar to last night, perhaps a little warmer given the warmer high temperatures and slightly higher dewpoints we've experienced today. More of the same can be expected tomorrow as ridging amplifies over the region. Southwesterly winds and sunshine will once again combine to push temperatures into the low and mid 80s.
THE H5 PATTERN HAD CLOSED LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER AREA OF CLOSED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U. WARM FRONT WAS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS NORTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U. SHIFTING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS AND STRENGTHENS.
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN QUITE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE HRRR MODEL INDICATING LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z FROM THE INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT EASTWARD TO CHEYENNE COUNTY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA. THE MODELS SHOW THE HIGHEST QPF OVER THE PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST WY AS A SFC COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH GOOD MOISTURE.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES LATER TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AGAIN TODAY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT, SOUTHERLY WINDS PUSHING THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WED NIGHT.
A strong cold front is expected tonight with cooler and breezier weather in the forecast for Tuesday.
346 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR THE BAHAMAS BY WEDNESDAY AND LINGER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THAN WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND.
416 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 TODAY WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENHANCED BY WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN EMBEDDED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICY WAS SPINNING THROUGH IA OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. TREND HAS BEEN FOR LESS AND LESS ACTION ALONG THE NORTHWARD MOVING AND WEAKENING WARM FRONT. ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ON TAP WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OUT OF THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
509 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL. AS ALMOST ALL NUM GUID PLACES THE LOWEST PRESSURES THERE AND WINDS ARE EASTERLY OVER MOST OF THE CWA. SOME DRYING FROM HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST /BACKDOOR HIGH PRESSURE?/ SHOULD KEEP THE STABILITY HIGHER IN THE E/NERN HALF OF THE AREA.
OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE PERIOD AS THE SW CONUS UPPER LOW SHIFTS NE. TRIED TO CONCENTRATE THE HIGHEST POPS WHERE THE BEST DEEP LAYER FORCING IS EXPECTED ALONG A SW/NE BAND THAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NW OVERNIGHT TUES.
147 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH WARM FRONT SHIFTING N OF CWA AND TAKING MOST OF ANY -SHRA ACTIVITY WITH IT.
534 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL. AS ALMOST ALL NUM GUID PLACES THE LOWEST PRESSURES THERE AND WINDS ARE EASTERLY OVER MOST OF THE CWA. SOME DRYING FROM HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST /BACKDOOR HIGH PRESSURE?/ SHOULD KEEP THE STABILITY HIGHER IN THE E/NERN HALF OF THE AREA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE UNDERWAY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY ALREADY ON ITS WAY NORTH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN (IF NOT ALL READY THERE).
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL IOWA WITH INSTABILITY QUICKLY RECOVERING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BUILD INLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
733 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015 A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING OVER THE STRONG RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WARM AIR COMING OVER THE RIDGE COMBINED WITH REMAINS OF BILL AND A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT- WAVE WILL KEEP IT UNSETTLED HERE.
1031 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015 THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BILL TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT.
TIED TO THE UPPER LOW SHOWING UP NEAR SOUTHEAST BOLLINGER COUNTY MISSOURI AT 19Z (WEST OF KCGI). AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS LOCAL MESOSCALE DISCUSSION, CONVECTION IS INCREASING IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW. THERE IS STILL A CONCERN THAT THE CONTRACTION OF THE LOW THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA, AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES IN THE NEAR TERM. WILL LEAVE TO THE EVENING AND MIDNIGHT SHIFTS TO REDUCE THE AREA COVERAGE OF THE WATCH AS THE ATTENDANT PRECIPITATION WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
SOUTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. THOUGH THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE RIDGE DOES LOOK TO BREAK DOWN A BIT AS THE TROF AXIS PASSES TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE WEATHER MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A SUBTLE LOW LEVEL/SURFACE BASED TROF AXIS MAY EASE IN FROM THE NORTH OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS VERY MUGGY WITH NUMBERS IN THE LOWER 70S INTERIOR TO UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES. DAYTIME HIGHS FORECAST IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL INFLUENCE TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH WARMER DOWN SOUTH AND COOLER UP NORTH.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO.
AND ARE NOT WARMER DUE TO THE COOL AIR OUTFLOW STRATUS THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THIS AFTERNOON'S THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE HIGH END NATURE OF AVAILABLE CONVECTIVE ENERGY POTENTIAL AND DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
754 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015 DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT LEADING TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS FOR SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 73 90 73 95 / 40 60 20 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 71 87 71 93 / 30 70 50 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 71 87 71 93 / 40 70 60 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 67 86 67 89 / 30 70 60 20.
THE REMNANTS OF BILL WERE LOCATED OVER THE MO/KY/TN BORDERS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES WERE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS NEAR THIS WEAK UPPER TROUGH THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS TROUGH LOCATED IN BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL RIDGES. THE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOTABLY WEAK NEAR THIS TROUGH. THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCE.
THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A MORE TYPICAL JUNE PATTERN OF NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WHICH SHOULD SPELL SOME RELIEF FROM THE PREVIOUS VERY HOT AND HUMID DAYS.
THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER CLOSED LOW. THE HIGH RES MODEL SUITE INDICATES ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID EVENING AND WILL INCLUDE LOWER END POPS ACCORDINGLY. MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS ROUND AS THE HIGH RES WINDOWS KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP ACROSS KY/TN WHERE THE DYNAMICS/FORCING IS MORE PRONOUNCED WHILE SOME OF THE OPNL RUNS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOUTH OF THE TN/AL BORDER WHERE THE INSTABILITY AXIS MAY PRESIDE. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WITH TIME WITH THE FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST WITH TIME. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH (REMNANTS OF BILL) ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH/NRN GULF COAST REGION.
SO THE TROUGH AXIS WAS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO FLARE UP ON THE TROUGH AXIS AND WILL LIKELY TRACK SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CWA. TWEAKED THE HOURLY VALUES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FL PENINSULA. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE HIGHER POPS WILL ALSO LIKELY EXTEND DOWN INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES.
(Saturday Night through Friday) A broad area of upper high pressure will dominate the southwestern CONUS through the coming weekend with another area of upper high pressure centered over the southeastern states. Between the two areas of upper high pressure there will be an inverted upper trough extending from the middle Rio Grande Valley northeastward into the ArkLaTex region through Saturday night.
Heat indices will climb into the lower 100s to around 105 degrees making for a miserable, hot and muggy day. With the thermal ridge positioned across the CWA, 850mb temps of around 27 C, and gusty southwest winds advecting much warmer air into the region. A cold front will sag southward into southern Iowa/northern Missouri by tomorrow afternoon. A mid-level trough will approach the region tomorrow afternoon and provide focus for convection.
A WEAK TROUGH AXIS AT 200MB IS STILL OVERHEAD BEFORE WE ARE MOVED INTO A SUBSIDENCE ZONE AT THIS LEVEL TOMORROW. RIDGING AT 500MB IS STILL TRYING TO WORK ITS WAY OVER THE AREA COUNTER ACTING THE EFFECT OF THE HIGHER LEVEL TROUGH. MID LEVEL CLOUD OVER OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER AND WELL SHORT OF CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER RIDGE AT 500MB WILL BUILD IN MORE FOR TOMORROW WITH THE HIGHER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST. SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS LITTLE BY LITTLE EACH DAY. FORTUNATELY THE CORE OF THE RIDGE WILL BE WEST OF US SO THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET TOO FAR ABOVE NORMAL.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND FOR SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER.
100 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.
The low level clouds will start to slowly clear from west to east tonight, winds will also become light. A warmer air mass will start to spread into the area this weekend as temperatures warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s.
A small chance of showers and thunderstorms will return for the beginning of the next work week, as a weak upper level low moves over the Inland Northwest. Temperatures will remain warmer than normal for this time of year. Cote' 00Z TAFS: A mostly dry, westerly flow will persist over the region over the next 24 hours as a cold front exits. The main impact will be the winds this evening, with local gusts between 15 to 30kts, with the high end gusts near EAT and LWS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HEIGHTS INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK, AS THE CENTER OF A CLOSED MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, MOVES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
RETURN FLOW WAS NOTED IN THE HIGH PLAINS. TOMORROW WILL LIKELY HAVE THE HIGHEST HEAT INDICES OF THE YEAR SO FAR.
908 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015 ONE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS EXITING THE FAR EASTERN CWA THIS EVENING WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS QUICKLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHWEST SD WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND WAA. AND ARE NOT WARMER DUE TO THE COOL AIR OUTFLOW STRATUS THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THIS AFTERNOON'S THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE HIGH END NATURE OF AVAILABLE CONVECTIVE ENERGY POTENTIAL AND DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO. WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARDS AND BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TOWARDS THE SURFACE, A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF THE AREA WITH LEE TROUGHING CONTINUING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN KANSAS TOWARDS MORNING THEN SOUTHWARD INTO OUR CWA BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING.
IT AND THE GFS BRING 850MB DEWPOINTS IN THE 15-18C RANGE AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/BILL ARRIVES. MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAGNITUDES ARE IN THE 300-400G/KG RANGE IN THE LOW LEVELS. THERE WILL BE HIGH THETA E CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS AS WELL.
RADAR SHOWED A FINE LINE OF BIOLOGICAL SCATTERERS THIS EVENING OVER THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY WHERE WINDS PICKED UP TO 15-25 MPH AROUND 630-830 PM /ONO-EUL-MAN/ BUT THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH THE FINE LINE LOOKED TO BE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHED STAR/EAGLE AT 9 PM.
THE WEAKNESS ALOFT PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA AS ANOTHER WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MOVING WESTWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ENTERS OUR AREA FROM THE EAST. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S AT THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. RESULTING IN APPARENT TEMPERATURE VALUES PEAKING IN THE LOWER 100S.
ALSO FOCUSING ON SEVERE POTENTIAL LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CURRENT SURFACE MAP HAS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MOSTLY SUNNY/DRY/COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S. THIS COULD HAVE AN AFFECT ON HOW QUICKLY THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER AND RELOAD CAPE FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOOK FOR THE BULK OF THE STORMS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATER SATURDAY EVENING AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AS WARM AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. A WEAK WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH AND THE GENERAL FLATTENING OF THIS RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN LED TO A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP JUST NW OF THE MAIN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD, WHICH COULD CAUSE SHOWERS TO LINGER A FEW HOURS AFTER THE LOW PASSES INTO KENTUCKY. CLOUDY SKIES WILL INFLUENCE TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH WARMER DOWN SOUTH AND COOLER UP NORTH.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND. IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOWS MID 70S INLAND TO THE LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.
928 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN KS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
927 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015 DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. CLOUD COVER WILL STREAM NORTHWARD TOWARD SUNSET AHEAD OF OHIO VALLEY CYCLONE, PERHAPS BRINGING THE FOG TO AN END OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT LEADING TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS FOR SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
For tonight light winds will become south as the high shifts off to the east. On Saturday low pressure will move into MN dragging a cold front into northern KS by afternoon. Ahead of the front all guidance shows a impressive thermal ridge with +26-27C 850mb temps which should be mixed down given the strong southwest winds ahead of the front on Saturday. Will also keep the fcst dry despite cold front given lack of stronger upper waves and very warm mid lvl temps between 850-700mb.
WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WEST. A H7-H5 TROUGH ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER JET STREAK REMAINING ACROSS THE BIG BEND/MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY AREA CONTINUES ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/THETA-E RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH PERSISTENT WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THERE HAS BEEN SOME ONGOING ACTIVITY ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. LATEST CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA (STRONGEST FORCING ON NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO THIS EVENING. THE NORTH WILL PROBABLY END STAYING IN THE LOW CLOUDS MOST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING. AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING WILL BE SUPPLIED BY A S/W TROF. SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
734 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015 A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BILL TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT.
REACHING SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS INDIANA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-135. RECENT TRENDS SUPPORT A FASTER ONSET OF PRECIPITATION BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL KS WHICH COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. EVEN RAIN AS AFTERNOON HIGHS MAY RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ANOTHER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. RECENT MODEL TRENDS DEVELOP THE MID/UPPER TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MID/UPPER TROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY.
SURFACE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD PROVIDING A MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND THROUGH TAF PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SKIRT THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. GUIDANCE TEMPS DEPICTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S APPEARS FINE FOR TODAY. COMING OFF THE LOWER TEENS FOR LOWS THURSDAY MORNING.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY AND ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY.
BELIEVE ALL LOCATIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION DISRUPTING THE RADIATION COOLING EFFECT AT THE TOP OF THE LOW CLOUD/FOG LAYER. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ENCOMPASSED MUCH OF THE EASTERN US WHILE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES. ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR INDICATE THE LOW VISIBILITIES PERSISTING UNTIL LATE MORNING. SOME COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT AS NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AROUND THE LOW CENTER (IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS). HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER WHILE CHANCES FOR SNOW SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS A SHORT WAVE SLIDES DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST.
AS ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITS THE GREAT LAKES. PREFER IDEA OF WARMER LOWS AND TRIED TO STAY ABOVE GUIDANCE. AFTER THAT UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN FOR WEEKEND. WARMING TREND ON TRACK FOR THAT PERIOD AS SUN AND WARMER AIR RETURNS.
A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH TODAY BEFORE MOVING DOWNSTREAM TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DOWNSTREAM CROSSING CENTRAL UTAH. UPSTREAM PATTERN ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF AMPLIFICATION WITH AN EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE BUILDING NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS RIDGE WILL EXPAND AND BUILD FURTHER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN STATES TOMORROW ALLOWING VERY STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
1202 PM CST WED JAN 20 2016 Much of the region still with a weak and broad expanse of a ridge overhead as the snow has cleared well to the east. There is little to no CAA behind this departing system, so daytime highs should be similar to or a few degrees warmer than yesterday, with widespread readings in the 20s. Despite a 1026 mb high pressure settling se from the upper MS river valley into IL and ohio river valley tonight, mostly cloudy to overcast low clouds will linger through Thu across much of IL with an extensive area of low clouds all the way west into central NE/KS along with a low level inversion trapping low clouds.
1217 PM EST WED JAN 20 2016 SNOW CONTINUES AT KTYS AND KTRI WITH A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AT KCHA. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING NEARLY CALM WINDS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.
SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN SLOWLY FROM THE MIDWEST.