Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LOW AS IT MOVES OVHD THURSDAY. DESPITE THE COLD FRONT.
1036 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016 Strong high pressure will persist today, with dry and mild conditions.
1159 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016 IT WILL BE COLD WITH BRISK WINDS TODAY BECAUSE OF THE FLOW BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL BE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
1150 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016 TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE PERIOD AS AREA REMAINS UNDER STRONG AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY.
1144 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016 H5 WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA SHARPENING THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY DIVIDING COOLER AIR AND CLOUDS TO THE EAST AND CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST. TONIGHT COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE WITH SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INDICATE A GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR DRIZZLE AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE RATHER THAN SNOW/RAIN AS THE MOISTURE PROFILE IS SHALLOW AND ONLY INVADES THE DGZ FOR A SHORT WHILE.
THEN SPEEDS LOOK TO INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS EXCEEDING 12KT AT THE SRN SITES. DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER ALSO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TODAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO THE GULF THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH.
424 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016 HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A STABLE AIR MASS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE WEEKEND. SUBSIDING WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE CREATING GOOD CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. CREATING A CHALLENGE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES OVER NIGHT. IF THERE ARE CIRRUS STREAKS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA OVER NIGHT THAT COULD MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
Dewpoints start out quite dry in the low to mid teens and while mixing will be effective today, there is some moisture above the boundary layer and dewpoints will probably rise a bit through the day. Temperatures will also be much warmer today, with highs in the 50s common amidst strong warm advection and good mixing. The lowest RH seems unlikely to occur at the same time as the strongest winds, which may gust 20+ mph for a bit late this morning. Winds turning out of the north should hold at 5-15 mph through the night, keeping the boundary layer mixed and low temperatures should hold in the low to mid 20s.
A cold front will slowly push through the area late tonight into Thursday aiding to push temps nearer seasonal normals.
/ISSUED 947 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY.
A BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALIGN ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
The lower-level reflection of the upper wave will then push through tonight, bringing winds back to the east northeast and holding Thursday highs in the mid 20s to 30s.
SFC RIDGING ANCHORED OVER SE TX/LA AS OF LATE MORNING WILL SHIFT SE OVER THE NRN GULF THIS AFTERNOON. /ISSUED 1040 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/ NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES AND A GOOD WARM UP TODAY INTO THE UPPER 50S/MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
346 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015 AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING.
138 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THIS WEEKEND.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS AND KGWX RADAR SHOWED A COLD FRONT HAD CLEARED THE MIDSOUTH.
606 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING BELOW NORMAL.
428 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR.
643 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 AVIATION FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE INTERIOR SECTIONS HAVING THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A KILLING FREEZE.
frost is expected to form with otherwise clear skies and temps dropping into the lower and middle 30s.
With sfc anticyclone moving toward the CWFA bringing light winds. Although temperatures in some areas will likely reach or undercut the freezing mark.
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING DOMINATING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE/COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER 40S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DIPPING BACK INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.
1228 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015 MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS TEMPS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS ON TAP LATE THIS WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. GETTING KICKED EWD AS PAC NW TROF DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
140 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 SHOWERS CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM PIT NWD AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WERE MAINTAINED. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING. DOWNLAKE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL BECOME ENHANCED SATURDAY AS THE 700MB THERMAL TROF SWINGS OVER THE AREA AND THE AGGREGATE MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS INCREASES.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY PROMOTING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
308 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015 ANOTHER DRY DAY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING FIFTEEN TO TWENTY DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WONT BE COMPLETELY SATURATED UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING.
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE N/NE TONIGHT. WILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES 7-10 DEGREES COOLER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL BE A NOTICEABLE COOLER CHANGE.
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS UTAH THROUGH SATURDAY. A SECOND COOLER STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
242 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015 Warm and dry weather will continue for one more day before the ridge of high pressure starts to break down.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY SFC COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE TO NEAR LBB THIS MORNING. CONVERGENCE AND THETA-E RIDGING ALONG THE H7 FRONT AND INSTABILITY ABOVE THIS LAYER HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE SCT TSTMS MAINLY ACROSS OK OVERNIGHT HOWEVER A FEW OF THESE STORMS HAVE IMPACTED ERN SECTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.
THAT LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AND AN OFFSHORE KICKER TROUGH WILL LIFT THE LOW PORTION OF THE BLOCK NORTH. BUT SHORT WAVES EJECTING FROM THE LOW ALONG WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY. IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ONSHORE SATURDAY.
224 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015 Surface Canadian high pressure continues to settle into the region with a much cooler and drier airmass. Temperatures were in the low to mid 60s this afternoon with dew points in the mid 20s to low 30s. Wouldn't be surprised to see some low lying areas dip below freezing out east as well. The high pressure system will be over the area on Saturday with a light and variable wind. Highs will be similar, maybe a few degrees cooler on Saturday to what we had today. High pressure on Saturday night will shift a bit further southeast centered to the east of our CWA. Western portion of the CWA will likely be warmer, with a southeast wind setting up on the back side of the high pressure system.
1206 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015 COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. RIDGE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY.
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHS TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAYS READINGS.
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO THE WEST WITH DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA. A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CALIFORNIA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WAS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U. THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND PLAINS THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP WELL BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. BUT THE OVERALL AIRMASS WILL BE WARMER.
A COLD FRONT HAS USHERED IN MORE SEASONABLE AIR ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WHILE LOW TONIGHT FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
343 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS COOLER AIR WILL GIVE RISE TO SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE SHOWERS SEEM TO CORRESPOND WELL TO WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND MID LEVEL COOL POCKET/STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MINS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A COLD FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG A FREDERICKSBURG TO LA GRANGE LINE AS OF 16/19Z. A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
BROAD UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN U. NW FLOW ALOFT TO PUSH ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT AND OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING NE-E WINDS BECOMING BREEZY AT TIMES BY THE AFTERNOON. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WRN TO CNTRL CONUS TONIGHT THROUGH SAT. SOME LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH FREEZING AGAIN OVERNIGHT. S/SERLY WINDS AT THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S ACROSS WRN SD. MUCH WARMER LOWS CAN BE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER NE WY WHERE TEMPS WILL DROP ONLY INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
240 PM MDT FRI OCT 16 2015 UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SLIDE EAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL ALSO SLIDE EAST WITH RESULTING INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS LOCALLY THROUGH TONIGHT. LEE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY WILL DECREASE THE WINDS SOMEWHAT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AREA WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING FURTHER EAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THEN WARMING ON SATURDAY TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
244 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 (THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY) THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING IS NOW WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE HIGHER EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ALLOWS MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO INFILTRATE THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
348 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015 LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES AND DEEP INTO WEST TEXAS. BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER AND FAIRLY DRY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS PRESENT. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S SEEM PROBABLE. GENERALLY STRAYED AWAY FROM BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE AND NUDGED TOWARD THE COOLER STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. IF ANY STRATUS LINGERS EARLY IT SHOULD ERODE BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY AND NOT IMPACT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CANADIAN UPPER LOW.
HOLD TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IN ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN CWA. WITH MODEST SOUTHEAST FLOW HOLDING TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID 30S EAST TO LOWER 40S WEST SATURDAY NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RAGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST.
At the upper levels, ridging will move in from the west with increasing 500-hPa geopotential heights. At the surface, troughing will prevail just east of the rock pile.
259 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015 Upgraded the 6 southeast IL counties into the Freeze Warning from 1- 9 am on Saturday morning with lows in the lower 30s. MAV/MET guidance lows tonight are fairly similar and sided toward the slightly cooler MET guidance as this has verified best with last nights lows. Large 1033 mb Canadian high pressure near the NE/IA border to drift into eastern IA and central MO by dawn Saturday. Strong 1032 mb Canadian high pressure will become centered over west central IL by around noon Saturday. the high will continue to drift toward SE IL. widespread sub-freezing temperatures should develop once again.
1236 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015 18Z TAFS CLEAR SKIES WITH A BIT OF A NORTHERLY BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT THAT HAS NOW PUSHED INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. FRNT WILL NOT PRODUCE ANY SHWRS AS A RIDGE ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS ANY DVLPMNT. TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
THE REST OF TODAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS THE HIGH REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE. THIS HIGH WILL BEGIN MOVING EAST TONIGHT. BUT WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH OF AN EFFECT ON THE EASTERN CWA TO BRING ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS.
313 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015 A LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND FROM THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA IS BEGINNING TO OPEN UP AND WILL MERGE INTO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORCAL COAST THIS WEEKEND. COOLER AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND TONIGHT, THIS COULD LEAVE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS DUE TO BETTER INSTABILITY FROM THE INCOMING TROUGH, ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LESS THAN 0.
INITIALLY WITH NW FLOW INTO GREAT LAKES MEAN TROUGH WITH A TRANSITION TO SWRN CONUS CUTOFF AND WEAK SW FLOW FOR IA. AT ONSET WEAK SHORT WAVE TOPPING WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL DROP INTO THE MO VALLEY SPREADING PATCHY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SOUTH AND EAST INTO IA AS WARM ADVECTION STARTS ALOFT. WARM ADVECTION WILL THEN COMMENCE IN EARNEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AND TURN SOUTHERLY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES THE MO VALLEY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THUS MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A WESTERN RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING.
SOME WEAK RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FREEZING ACROSS THE FAR WEST OTHERWISE LOOKING AT ANOTHER FREEZE TONIGHT. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION SATURDAY HOWEVER WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
352 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THIS WEEKEND.
1202 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL ALSO HELP USHER IN SOME COLDER.
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING AN ELONGATED PAC TROUGH APPROACHING THE NW COAST. THIS MORNINGS MODEL RUNS SHOW THE PAC TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SRN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH SPINNING OFF A CLOSED CIRCULATION ALONG THE SW OREGON COAST AND THE LEADING EDGE OF ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE SRN HIGHLANDS/BURLEY AREA.
306 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA WITH IT ROUGHLY SITUATED FROM COLUMBUS TO JUST NORTH OF MACON. COLDER AIR TO RUSH IN TONIGHT WITH GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO TREND COOLER WITH SOME UPPER 30S FOR THE NE MOUNTAINS AND NOW SOME OVER NW GA AS WELL.
Under high pressure with clear skies and light variable wind today, temperatures will continue to heat up quickly into the upper 80s to even around 90 in a few spots. To our northwest, a dry cold front is currently draped across northern GA and central AL and forecast to reach our area early this evening. Temperatures will drop quickly tonight between the frontal passage and the loss of solar heating, dipping into the low to mid 50s across the area, possibly into the upper 40s in parts of southeast AL and southwest GA.
630 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EVEN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS LATER ON SATURDAY.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN BEHIND THE FIRST STRONG COLD FRONT THIS FALL.
331 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE AXIS OF THE HIGH THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. IF THAT CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THEN OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. AREAS THAT DO NOT HAVE A HARD FREEZE SHOULD BE CLOSE TO FREEZING AND A KILLING FROST SHOULD OCCUR WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY END THE GROWING SEASON.
SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
102 PM MDT FRI OCT 16 2015 UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SLIDE EAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL ALSO SLIDE EAST WITH RESULTING INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS LOCALLY THROUGH TONIGHT. LEE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY WILL DECREASE THE WINDS SOMEWHAT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AREA WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING FURTHER EAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THEN WARMING ON SATURDAY TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
103 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 COOLER AIR HAS ALREADY BEEN MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.
Also a mid cloud deck is forecast to develop on the western periphery of the high overnight, which may inhibit radiational cooling. Tomorrow the return flow develops although temperatures will not warm much with highs in the low to mid 60s.
MODEL RH CROSS SECTIONS HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT CURRENTLY STRETCH FROM NORTH CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. THE DRY GROUND ALSO FAVORS LEANING TOWARD THE COOLER END OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. ESPECIALLY IN THE WAPSI VALLEY WHERE READINGS IN THE LOW 20S ARE A GOOD BET.
Today and Saturday will both be quite pleasant across central Idaho and western Montana, as the region remains under high pressure.
302 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING BELOW NORMAL.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CROSSING IN TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A much cooler and (even) drier airmass will build into the region through the day today, as expansive Canadian high pressure moves south. This should set the stage for the coolest night of the season so far, with temperatures across the eastern Ozarks dropping into the low to mid 30s. Readings will be a little warmer to the west, where a little high level cloud cover may cut down on radiational cooling.
AND 1000-500MB THICKNESSES TO 540-546 DAM RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER TODAY. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S ON AVG ARE FORECAST ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A SIGOURNEY IOWA TO MACOMB ILLINOIS LINE. A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES EDGING EASTWARD. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY RESULTING IN SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
WILL HAVE A SLOW WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE PLAINS AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTH AGAIN.
339 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND CROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT.
349 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING BELOW NORMAL.
348 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S COLD FRONT WILL DECREASE BELOW 10 MPH FRIDAY EVENING WHILE BECOMING INCREASINGLY EASTERLY. /ISSUED 343 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015/ RELIEF FROM THE RECORD BREAKING HEAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS WEEK IS ARRIVING IN NORTH TEXAS IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES TO THE LOWER 90S IN OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. EVEN WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
652 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR.
347 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015 DRY SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUED TO INFILTRATE THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL AMPLIFY FURTHER OVERNIGHT WHILE REMAINING POISED SQUARELY OVER THE REGION. UPPER RIDGING SHOULD BREED MOSTLY CLEAR ON SATURDAY DESPITE SUBTLE WEAKENING OF THE HEIGHT FIELDS. HIGH AMPLITUDE NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE FOR COASTAL MIAMI- DADE PARTICULARLY DUE TO THE HIGH PW AIR IN PLACE THERE. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE DRIER AIR WINNING OUT WITH TIME HERE OVER THE NEXT 24 HR WITH A SLIGHT DISPLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST MOISTURE SOUTHWARD TOMORROW.
WAVE WATCH III PREDICTS SEA HEIGHTS/WIND IN THE SCEC CATEGORY BY SATURDAY AFTN OWING TO A SURGE OF HIGHER MSLP FROM THE NORTHEAST (IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER SYSTEM MOVG ACRS THE SERN CONUS) COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
326 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EVEN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS LATER ON SATURDAY.
THE RIDGE OVER THE WRN USA WILL INCH CLOSER AS HEIGHT FALLS ADVANCE INLAND OFF THE PAC. THIS HIGH WILL CONT E INTO THE MS VALLEY THRU TOMORROW. SAT: 3-5F WARMER THAN TODAY BUT BECOMING BREEZY AS S GUST 20-30 MPH.
1106 AM MDT FRI OCT 16 2015 UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH AXIS EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKY MTN STATES. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVE OVER THE THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE US/CAD BORDER AND HAVE INCREASED CLOUD-COVER SOME FOR THESE AREAS TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION.