Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Look for a drier but cooler trend by midweek. I also slowed the next warm front a little bit compared to the previous forecast. Until that time, much of the stratiform precipitation associated with the warm front will remain west of the Cascades. Some of these showers in the higher terrain east of KCOE will intensify into thunderstorms with intense heavy rain and small hail possible. These showers will dissipate late this evening, but another warm front will push northward over the region after 06Z this evening.
FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST WITH FLOW BACKING OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROF. IN SPLIT FLOW REGIME NORTHERN S/W TROF TO TRACK ACRS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VLY BY SATURDAY EVENING. NUMERICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING BUT KEEPING THE LOW LEVELS DRY. DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WHICH AFFECTS THE PCPN ARRIVAL TIME. GFS IS OUTLIER AND IS ORIENTED MORE SW THAN S WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND BRINGS PCPN IN QUICKER.
1032 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT WILL CLEAR OUT WITH WEAK RIDGING AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S.
A BROADER LOOK SHOWS AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE EXPENDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING ACROSS WEST TEXAS WITH A TROUGH OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE KEYS AREA WITH THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE ALOFT. THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EAST TEXAS COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS RIDGING WILL SUPPRESS ANY LOW LEVEL LIFTING.
Later tonight, an upper level storm system will continue to move into the Plains with a upper trough axis moving across western Kansas after midnight. Moderate rain showers will become light later this evening, then come to an end with the trough axis, ending by around midnight at Dodge City and by 5 am around Medicine Lodge.
THIS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO. A HIGHLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN INCOMING TROUGH AXIS. SPEED OF THE TROUGH, 2.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL CRAWL DOWN THE WEST COAST. AS THE TROUGH DIGS. COLORADO RIVER SOUTHWEST FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ENSUE DOWNSTREAM.
A second and stronger northern stream upper trough is expected to dive southeast and push the mid level trough east and through the CWA on Saturday.
1259 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY.
1007 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015 AN OVERVIEW OF AN ANALYSIS OF THE 00Z SURFACE AND UPPER LEVELS SHOWED A WARM FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR CROCKETT TO WACO. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WAS SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 16 FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE INTO CENTRAL OK.
An upper level trough across the northern high plains this afternoon was phasing with an upper low across southwest NM. The resulting positive tilt upper trough will move eastward across the central plains tonight and into the early morning hours of Saturday. A combination of isentropic lift at the 295K level and ascent ahead of the H5 trough has caused widespread light rain to develop across central and southern KS. The periods of rain will continue through the night as mid level frontogenesis increases across northeast KS through the evening hours, but should begin to end from west to east across the CWA during the mid and late morning hours of saturday, as the positive tilt upper level trough moves east across eastern KS into MO. Expect highs to reach the lower to mid 60s across the western counties with more insolation.
1032 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS TROUGH WILL BE QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST.
753 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 A DRY PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
SKIES HAVE CLEARED UP THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
845 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
801 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS DRY AIR AND SINKING BEHIND A PASSING TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED SOUTH ACROSS ALL TERMINAL SITES. LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION AROUND 31/06Z AT KGUY.
4 OR SO ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WHICH MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT. MORE INTERESTINGLY THE VALUE WAS THE HIGHEST SINGLE DAY TOTAL SINCE DOLLY PASSED THROUGH ON JULY 23 2008 /6. THIS WAS THE LATEST FOR SUCH A RAIN DUMP AND THE ONLY ONE IN THE TOP THREE NOT RELATED TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF THE DAKOTAS TO A LOW IN SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO IS FORECAST TO SWING EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THEN PERSISTENT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA UNTIL MID LEVEL BULGE IN TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER SATURDAY MORNING. THEN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY AS SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH TIED TO UPPER SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 60S MOST LOCATIONS. KEEPING EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA IN THE WARMER AIRMASS.
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DRY AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE PASSES BY HOWEVER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WHILE WEAK LOW LEVEL VERTICAL ASCENT REMAINS THUS THE LIGHT RAIN MAY DIMINISH TO DRIZZLE BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS.
726 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
1051 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.
937 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES HAVE COME IN A LITTLE WARMER. THIS IS ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT FOR THE GRAND VALLEY WHERE THE 12Z MAV/MET NUMBERS ARE 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING AT GRAND JUNCTION. WHILE SOME LOWER AREAS MAY DIP BELOW FREEZING. OVERNIGHT TEMPS LOOK TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THAT STILL HAVE YET TO SEE A SEASON ENDING FREEZE.
THERE WILL STILL SOME GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW-20 KNOTS RANGE. HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER HAS OCCURRED NEAR SAN ANTONIO AND AUSTIN ALONG SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT. UPPER LOW REMAINS A GOOD WAYS OFF THE WEST. SOME INDICATION OF A WEAK WAVE IN ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF MEXICO AND JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. LATE NIGHT/OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY SWEEP WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AS UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THIS IS WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 30S OVERNIGHT /COLDEST UP BY BANNER SUMMIT/.
749 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY.
We still expect this low cloud deck to continue to diminish this evening. Southern Kentucky looks to see highs in the lower 60s. Overnight lows won't drop much from that in the lower 50s by Sun morning.
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA/SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHORT TERM MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT OVERALL FOR TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS TROUGH EXITS AND SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WINDING DOWN WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER ON TAP. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE STATE WITH BACK EDGE OF TROUGH AND DISTINCT DRYING MOVING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME. NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE STATE AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND HIGH PLAINS. WILL KEEP CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN SANGRE MTS. THOUGH SHOULD SEE WINDS DECOUPLING ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THOUGH THE EVENING. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FLATTENS ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT POSITIONS OF THE LOW AND OTHER SURFACE FEATURES.
913 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015 A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO/FAR WEST TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT POSITIONS OF THE LOW AND OTHER SURFACE FEATURES.
943 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA WITH WESTERN RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH LEE TROF ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA AND WYOMING. CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILL OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE. WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. 50S OVER THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS.
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BAND OF RAIN NORTH INTO THE COAST AND INLAND TO THE WESTERN TERMINALS BPT, LCH WITH GUSTY SE WINDS, AND AEX WITH LESS WINDS. AS THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVES IN ON SATURDAY, EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. /ISSUED 348 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015/ WX MAP SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS TX. THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SHARPLY AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
/ISSUED / CURRENTLY THERE IS A LINGERING DIFFUSE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. TONIGHT AS A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL LOW BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF AND EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS. BUT MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL AND WITH WEAK INSTABILITY ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA.
836 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S MOST AREAS. (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE NERN AND MID ATLC COASTS WILL SLIDE EWD INTO THE ATLC PROVIDING ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH LIGHT E TO ESE FLOW. NORTHEAST WINDS VEER MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC AND WEAK FRONT WASHES OUT ACROSS THE REGION.
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR MOVED INTO THE REGION TODAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILT INTO THE NORTHEAST. THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
649 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015 An upper level trough of low pressure will continue to shift east towards the Ozarks tonight. Diffluent upper level flow in conjunction with strong and deep isentropic upglide in the low/mid levels of the atmosphere will support a shield of rain continuing to spread east into the Ozarks. That upper level trough will then slowly move across the Ozarks Saturday and Saturday evening. However, there will still be the potential for drizzle as a mid level trough attempts to squeeze out low level moisture.
715 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH FAIR SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY.
756 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS TAF CYCLE.
837 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SCATTERED TO THIN BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING SPILLING OVER THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF.
659 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MN TO CO AND WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 334 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/ LARGE-SCALE CUT OFF UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN OVER CO THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BULK LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ELEVATED CONVECTION.
AREAS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND THE CHEYENNE RIDGE COULD PICK UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO WILL SLOWLY SPIN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE AND END UP OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COOLED HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FEW DEGREES FOR SATURDAY WITH COOL AIR OVER US FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE LOW COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS CLOSER TO THE LOW AND AWAY FROM DOWNSLOPE.
446 PM PDT FRI APR 17 2015 A weak cold front will move through the region tonight.
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER COLORADO CONTINUES TO ROTATE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT MORE IN THIS AREA. COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. AN UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO WILL ROTATE SOME CLOUDS NORTHWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT OVERALL QPF FROM THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0. PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN. THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW.
706 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO TONIGHT THEN A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO.
A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. EASTERLY WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG THE LAKE MUCH COOLER THAN AREAS INLAND.
1124 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015 CURRENT SCENARIO HAS MATURE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH LEADING SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH NE.
BUT WILL INCREASE TOMORROW BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
705 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015 UPPER CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AS SEEN IN IR. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW FROM NORTHERN COLORADO SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SATURDAY. MODELS ARE SCOURING OUT SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. BUT ALL AREAS WILL HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD. SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN MOVED FURTHER EAST ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW AND DRY LINE MOVES FURTHER EAST AND MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA IS DRY SLOTTED.
1002 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT.
UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF CANADIAN BORDER AFTER 06Z, CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY (20 TO 30 KT GUSTS AT TIMES) AT KCTB AND KHVR BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z, AT KGTF, KLWT, AND KHLN BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z, AND AT KBZN BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z.
1234 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT.
629 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015 QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED DRY AIRMASS IN CONTROL. WE'VE HAD MORE INSOLATION TODAY THAN YESTERDAY, DESPITE THE ROBUST CU FIELD, AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY WELL MIXED OUT. EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S, WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT, THANKS TO AIRMASS MODIFICATION/HIGHER DEW POINTS. HOWEVER, AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WHEN DEALING WITH CUTOFF UPPER LOWS, THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH ITS EXPECTED ARRIVAL (SOME SOLUTIONS ARE STILL FASTER THAN OTHERS).
929 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO TONIGHT THEN A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO.
618 PM PDT FRI APR 17 2015 A weak cold front will move through the region tonight.
1014 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVERNIGHT. DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IN THE AFTERNOON.
1150 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 AVIATION A WEAK COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE EAST AND COOL THE HIGH TEMPERATURE INTO MID TO UPPER 60S.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF OVERNIGHT MCV HAS KEPT CONVECTION AT BAY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON AND SCOURED OUT THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WE HAVE HAD THE LAST FEW DAYS.
704 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT. DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IN THE AFTERNOON.
Upper low continues to spin over the Rockies this afternoon with an upper level jet rounding the base of the upper low and moving over New Mexico. Models suggest additional development this evening across western and central Kansas moving northeast into north central Kansas with the increase and veering of the low level jet overnight. Expect a break for a few hours in the afternoon, then chances increase again with storms developing again in the afternoon in western and central Kansas as upward vertical motion increases with the advance of the upper trough into the High Plains.
MODELS STILL AGREE WELL BUT WERE SLOWING DOWN THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH INTO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
1000 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
826 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT. DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IN THE AFTERNOON.
May take a few more hours, but think the low clouds will eventually fill in, but perhaps wont be as persistent or as widespread as the models would indicate. Otherwise, showers and thunderstorms are possible across all of West Central Texas tonight and tomorrow, as the upper low, centered over extreme northwestern New Mexico this afternoon, moves slowly toward the northeast.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL HIT THE LOW 70S FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE AREA. SW GA AND SE AL WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO THE RAIN PASSING THROUGH.
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS TONIGHT.
ALLOWING THE ATLC RIDGE TO BUILD WEST TWD SOUTH FL AND THE STRAITS. ATLC RIDGE BUILDING TWD SOUTH FL IN ITS WAKE WILL CAUSE SFC WINDS TO BECOME SRLY AND THEN SWRLY AROUND 10-12KT.
733 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 AVIATION A WEAK COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE EAST AND COOL THE HIGH TEMPERATURE INTO MID TO UPPER 60S.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE AND THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE.
A DRYLINE BOUNDARY IS CLOSE TO BOTH TERMINALS WHICH MAKES IT UNCERTAIN ON WHETHER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY IN THE VICINITY OF EITHER TERMINAL.
A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THIS FRONT HAS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH IT WHICH IS FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE CWA. THE MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
THE LOW LEVEL WIND WAS FAVORABLE FOR ROTATION IN THE CELLS. UPPER CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AS SEEN IN IR. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW FROM NORTHERN COLORADO SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SATURDAY. MODELS ARE SCOURING OUT SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. BUT ALL AREAS WILL HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD. SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN MOVED FURTHER EAST ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW AND DRY LINE MOVES FURTHER EAST AND MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA IS DRY SLOTTED.
UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF CANADIAN BORDER AFTER 06Z, CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY (20 TO 30 KT GUSTS AT TIMES) AT KCTB AND KHVR BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z, AT KGTF, KLWT, AND KHLN BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z, AND AT KBZN BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ARRIVES ON EARLY SATURDAY AS NERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DRIES THE ATMO OUT TEMPORARILY. DESPITE SOME EARLY SUNSHINE, HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS MOS TEMPS.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM THE NW. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. A CLOSED UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CROSSING THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS.
806 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. A CLOSED UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CROSSING THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS.
1136 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVERNIGHT. DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IN THE AFTERNOON.
SITUATION REMAINS ACTIVE WITH MOIST SW FLOW AND MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINING OFF TO THE WEST.
935 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. IR SATELLITE SEEMS TO INDICATE A WEAK MCV FEATURE WHICH MAY KEEP THINGS GOING THROUGH 06Z ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAIN ZONES. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 57 78 63 74 / 20 30 90 90 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 58 78 60 73 / 10 20 90 90 OAK RIDGE, TN 58 79 60 73 / 10 20 90 90 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 55 78 54 69 / 10 10 60 90.