Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper level high that continues to dominate over the region will continue to strengthen and shift slightly westward through Friday.
1227 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022 An MCS rolling eastward off of the high plains of western Kansas is progged to gradually weaken across western and central KS as we move through the early morning hours. More seasonable temperatures are anticipated for most areas with highs in the 90s although humidity will remain high with dewpoint temperatures in the lower 70s yielding heat index values in the 100-105 degree range near the Oklahoma state line. The mid/upper ridge will begin to build back over the area late in the period while a stable post-frontal regime remains entrenched across the area on Sat.
Otherwise, temps in many spots have finally climbed into the lower 90s, although heat indices are still near/or just above 105F at some locations. Temps overnight look to drop into the lower to mid 70s with patchy light fog possible in the more fog prone areas.
For Friday, all models show the upper level high strengthening east of the four corners region with a ridge of high pressure extending northward over Wyoming. Any shower and thunderstorm activity will likely be more isolated compared to the last several days due to drier air moving eastward into the High Plains. High temperatures will start to climb into the upper 80s to mid 90s as the upper level high develops to the south. Dry weather expect this weekend as the upper level high drifts to the northeast into Colorado and southern Wyoming. 700mb temperatures will climb above 20c, which roughly translates to widespread highs in the 90s across southeast Wyoming, and 100 to 105 for the lower elevations (below 500 feet) including western Nebraska.
344 PM EDT Thu Jul 7 2022 Broad high pressure will move off the New England Coast through Friday. A cold front moves south across the area Friday evening. Strong high pressure will build south out of Canada across the Great Lakes region over the weekend. High pressures remains over the area through this evening before dissipating tonight ahead of a cold front approaching from the north with the cold front located across southern Michigan/Ontario and north of Lake Erie by 12Z Friday. Easterly- moving rain showers are expected to develop ahead of this cold front, approaching the I-75 corridor Friday morning, expanding eastward to the I-71/480/80 corridor by Friday afternoon, and then scattering out Friday night.
1233 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022 Summary: A cold front will be sliding in from the northwest today and may generate some light showers this morning. High pressure settles in for Friday.
A decrease in moisture will keep minimum relative humidity values between 15-25 percent across the lower elevations over the next several afternoons. Daytime temperatures will also continue to warm as high pressure aloft strengthens and becomes centered north of the area.
Heat will continue through Friday, although northern locations will be slightly cooler Friday. Cooler weather is expected this weekend. For Friday, temperatures will be a bit cooler across the north in the vicinity of a weak cold front. Values across the north will be toward the lower end of that range, so opted to issue a Heat Advisory for Friday, while the Excessive Heat Warning was extended through Friday over the south.
401 PM EDT Thu Jul 7 2022 Quiet evening as high pressure resides over the region. A weak cold front over northern MI today will continue southward passing through SE MI later Friday. The weekend is shaping up to be fairly pleasant with expansive area of high pressure spreading across the Great Lakes.
The location of the highest totals as described above is in a region that missed out on the recent heavy rain. Renewed flooding isn't off the table for locations north of the above mentioned line despite the lower anticipated storms totals.
Current temperatures across the local area are mostly in the lower 90s, with dew points in the lower to mid 70s over inland areas and in the upper 70s at the coast. This feature will progress towards the Ohio Valley on Friday and eventually phase into the the upper trough over the Northeast. This will in turn result in the trough amplifying down over the Southeast during the weekend. Expecting coverage of showers and storms to be a bit higher Friday afternoon compared to today due to increasing moisture and the upper ridge breaking down through the day. By Friday afternoon, highs are expected to top out in the lower to mid 90s north of I-10 and in the upper 80s to lower 90s south of I-10.
/issued 240 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022/ The upper level high continues to dominate the weather. The upper level high will continue till Friday evening when the high pressure system retrogrades to the west and we begin to bring in a weak upper level disturbance from the Canadian Maritime Low of the east coast.
High pressure to the north will cause predominately dry conditions for the remainder of the region for the next several days. The bases of the cu will erode upward leaving sct-bkn clouds (Stratocu and Altocu) in the 5-7 KFT AGL range, while just some sct-bkn cirrus will top this lower cloud layer over the Northern Mtns and Laurel Highlands. Won't go too cool in that area (Lower Susq Valley), sticking with the higher side of guidance for overnight lows. That wave focuses the highest chance for showers on Fri night just about the time a better cold front pushes southward across the state. But, recent trends and dry air moving down under the big high pressure over the Great Lakes argue for only small chcs for precip, and for thunder to be unlikely.
1006 PM EDT Thu Jul 7 2022 A high pressure system is currently centered in the North Atlantic ocean and extending all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. This high pressure system is responsible for our east to souteast breezes and for somewhat mid level drier air. Current skies are mostly clear, temperatures are in the mid to lower 80s, while dewpoints are in the lower 70s. The aforementioned high pressure system will continue dominating our weather. A high pressure system is currently centered north of the Azores in the east- central Atlantic and will maintain gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes over the Florida Keys coastal waters through the end of the work week.
which may move into the lower CSRA. Temperatures may be a degree or two cooler with generally more cloudiness but still expect hot and humid conditions.
with hot conditions especially in the lower elevations.
(Tonight through Friday Night) Stable conditions expected through the remainder of the night as upper-level ridging remains firmly established across the region.
A broad upper trough remains centered west of Vancouver Island with a southwest flow aloft over the area. The aforementioned upper trough will weaken tonight through Friday and move into western B.
(Rest of tonight) Surface analysis this evening shows a pronounced ridge axis extending from the Mid Atlantic through the northern gulf. Off the surface, the very stout 594+ H5 ridge is firmly in place which will continue to promote hot temperatures overnight and through tomorrow.
/issued 226 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022/ Sub-tropical ridging persists across the region with broadly cyclonic flow encroaching the western U. Sincavage The upper level ridge will continue to edge west from Friday evening through the rest of the weekend. Current mid level moisture plume overhead will become trapped underneath the ridge as it moves west.
Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 70s. Temperatures may be a degree or two cooler with generally more cloudiness but still expect hot and humid conditions.
633 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022 Scattered TSRA will continue through the late evening hours with the highest areal coverage generally along and north of a line from KCDS to KPVW to KCVN. /issued 226 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022/ Sub-tropical ridging persists across the region with broadly cyclonic flow encroaching the western U. Sincavage The upper level ridge will continue to edge west from Friday evening through the rest of the weekend. Current mid level moisture plume overhead will become trapped underneath the ridge as it moves west.
549 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022 A cold front is expected to move southward through the Panhandles overnight. Latest 07/12Z model and numerical guidance shows the center of the broad H500 high pressure system over northern NM by tomorrow afternoon. With weak northerly H500 flow, convection over the high terrain tomorrow of NM/CO will develop once again tomorrow and could move into the more favored northern Panhandles through tomorrow night.
We will likely see one more day with triple digit temperatures tomorrow with at least slightly cooler conditions over the weekend. /issued 636 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022/ The upper level high continues to dominate the weather. The upper level high will continue till Friday evening when the high pressure system retrogrades to the west and we begin to bring in a weak upper level disturbance from the Canadian Maritime Low of the east coast.
729 PM EDT Thu Jul 7 2022 Broad high pressure will move off the New England Coast through Friday. A cold front moves south across the area Friday evening. Strong high pressure will build south out of Canada across the Great Lakes region over the weekend. High pressures remains over the area through this evening before dissipating tonight ahead of a cold front approaching from the north with the cold front located across southern Michigan/Ontario and north of Lake Erie by 12Z Friday. Easterly- moving rain showers are expected to develop ahead of this cold front, approaching the I-75 corridor Friday morning, expanding eastward to the I-71/480/80 corridor by Friday afternoon, and then scattering out Friday night.
There should be rain across at least the south half of the area during the morning that slowly decreases in areal coverage through the afternoon as the main cold front pushes through the area.
923 PM EDT Thu Jul 7 2022 Broad high pressure will move off the New England Coast through Friday. A cold front moves south across the area Friday evening. Strong high pressure will build south out of Canada across the Great Lakes region over the weekend. High pressures remains over the area through this evening before dissipating tonight ahead of a cold front approaching from the north with the cold front located across southern Michigan/Ontario and north of Lake Erie by 12Z Friday. Easterly- moving rain showers are expected to develop ahead of this cold front, approaching the I-75 corridor Friday morning, expanding eastward to the I-71/480/80 corridor by Friday afternoon, and then scattering out Friday night.
A mid/upper level ridge of high pressure will build westward across the the area today as a mid level trough lifts northwest and exits the area. This will bring drier mid and upper levels across S TX leading to highs being a couple of degrees warmer today than yesterday's values. With the high pressure continuing to build across the region, highs on Saturday will be even slightly hotter by one to two degrees.
SHORT TERM ((Now through Saturday): Persistence is the name of the game due to a sprawling H5 ridge across Texas.
The ridge builds into the central portion of the CONUS early this weekend, leaving the local area sandwiched between the ridge and a trough amplifying down the East Coast into the Southeast on Saturday. Temperatures will be HOT on Friday as the ridge remains over the region. Afternoon temperatures on Saturday will be tempered by the widespread showers and storms in the afternoon, but still expect highs to top out in the low to mid 90s area-wide.
00 inches east contributed to the high rainfall rates. Temperatures cooled to the lower to mid 70s with the storms regionwide this evening so with dew points in the lower 70s fog should form in the next few hours. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 95 76 92 73 88 / 40 50 80 60 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 93 75 88 71 87 / 50 60 80 50 50 Oak Ridge, TN 93 73 88 71 88 / 50 60 80 40 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 71 83 68 83 / 70 60 80 50 50.
While severe weather is not impossible, it's pretty unlikely with the expected CAPE and freezing level at 13000 feet AGL. The weak troughiness helping drive this activity should move east of the area mid to late morning Friday bringing an end to the chances for Friday afternoon. Friday night into Saturday will see upper level ridging build into the area so not expecting any showers or storms.
404 AM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022 Rain chances increase again this afternoon into early Saturday with a crossing cold front. Quiet and dry weather continues early this morning as lingering high pressure slips east and washes out. Precipitation should quickly exit much of the region Saturday morning, with lingering afternoon showers/storms confined mostly to the WV/PA ridges. Afterwards, high pressure building across the Great Lakes will bring dry, sunny, and seasonable weather through the weekend.
356 AM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022 Rain chances increase again this afternoon into early Saturday with a crossing cold front. Quiet and dry weather continues early this morning as lingering high pressure slips east and washes out. Precipitation should quickly exit much of the region Saturday morning, with lingering afternoon showers/storms confined mostly to the WV/PA ridges. Afterwards, high pressure building across the Great Lakes will bring dry, sunny, and seasonable weather through the weekend.
327 AM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022 Short term (Today through Saturday): Conditions for South FL today will mirror those of the last few days, as strong ridging aloft remains in place one more day and easterly to southeasterly flow prevails at the surface. Itâs worth noting as well that the last few runs of the high-res models have been hinting at afternoon shower development over the Atlantic waters. On Saturday, the upper level ridge will finally give way to a long-wave trough that will descend over the SE CONUS, with an associated frontal boundary that should stall out over the Florida panhandle (well north of our CWA). Temperatures will continue their warming trend, reaching the lower to mid 90s both days, with heat indexes reaching triple digits on Saturday.
We will likely see one more day with triple digit temperatures tomorrow with at least slightly cooler conditions over the weekend. /issued 636 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022/ The upper level high continues to dominate the weather. The upper level high will continue till Friday evening when the high pressure system retrogrades to the west and we begin to bring in a weak upper level disturbance from the Canadian Maritime Low of the east coast. This will allow for cooler temperatures (by a couple degrees) on Saturday.
Typically windy spots along the I-84 corridor in Baker county and the lower Treasure Valley will see gusty northwest winds into the overnight hours. Temperatures will continue to run above normal into Friday with another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain of Baker county and the west-central Idaho mountains. A short wave trough embedded in this flow will move through Saturday afternoon, but will do little to enhance convective potential due to a lack of moisture. Our best chance of thunderstorms remains over the higher terrain in the northern third of the CWA (Baker County and into the West Central and Boise Mountain zones), with isolated showers/storms over Owyhee County.
447 AM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022 The well-advertised cold front moved across Upper Michigan yesterday aftn/evening bringing isolated showers, mainly to south-central portions of our CWA. Ambient temperatures are a few degrees warmer than dew points and continued cold/dry air advection prevents any fog formation for the first night in recent memory. This ridge is expected to build southeast over Lake Superior today and NAEFS guidance indicates precipitable water values falling to around 0. Away from the big lake, temperatures should have no trouble warming into the low to mid 70s with very comfortable humidity levels.
402 AM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022 Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at times today into tonight as a low pressure system moves east across the Ohio Valley. High pressure and a drier airmass will then build into the region through the weekend. Temperatures this afternoon will range from the mid to upper 70s in our north to the low to mid 80s across our south. While damaging wind will be the primary threat, it will be tough to rule out a brief tornado, again mainly south of the Ohio River, as the low level shear increases ahead of the approaching surface wave. High pressure skirts by to the north Saturday night bringing mostly clear skies to the Ohio Valley.
1238 AM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022 (Tonight through Friday Night) Stable conditions expected through the remainder of the night as upper-level ridging remains firmly established across the region.
Scattered showers should persist as the front sags south across the region later this evening and overnight, and some enhancement will likely occur as the short- wave trough moves through central and east central WI overnight into Friday morning. The showers will end before midday Friday, with clearing occurring from north to south during the day as Canadian high pressure and much drier air arrives. Highs on Friday will be cooler; in the 70s.
The persistent trough off the coast continues to weaken, and the marine layer is being compressed as high pressure strengthens.
/Issued 549 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022/ A cold front is expected to move southward through the Panhandles overnight. Latest 07/12Z model and numerical guidance shows the center of the broad H500 high pressure system over northern NM by tomorrow afternoon. With weak northerly H500 flow, convection over the high terrain tomorrow of NM/CO will develop once again tomorrow and could move into the more favored northern Panhandles through tomorrow night.
409 AM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022 The well-advertised cold front moved across Upper Michigan yesterday aftn/evening bringing isolated showers, mainly to south-central portions of our CWA. Ambient temperatures are a few degrees warmer than dew points and continued cold/dry air advection prevents any fog formation for the first night in recent memory. This ridge is expected to build southeast over Lake Superior today and NAEFS guidance indicates precipitable water values falling to around 0. Away from the big lake, temperatures should have no trouble warming into the low to mid 70s with very comfortable humidity levels.
1245 AM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022 (Rest of tonight) Surface analysis this evening shows a pronounced ridge axis extending from the Mid Atlantic through the northern gulf. Off the surface, the very stout 594+ H5 ridge is firmly in place which will continue to promote hot temperatures overnight and through tomorrow.
231 AM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022 Synoptic Setup: Hot high pressure lies anchored over the Four Corners with a ridge extending north through eastern Montana and western Dakotas. A closed low lies off the coast of British Columbia and the area between these dominant airmasses is providing an express lane for pacific moisture and weak disturbances from northern California through eastern Montana in SW flow aloft. The wave moves to the east late tonight which will allow for a period of hot and dry weather in most areas with upper ridge over the area and minimal waves in the flow aloft.
/issued 226 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022/ Sub-tropical ridging persists across the region with broadly cyclonic flow encroaching the western U. Sincavage The upper level ridge will continue to edge west from Friday evening through the rest of the weekend. Current mid level moisture plume overhead will become trapped underneath the ridge as it moves west. After the weekend, the ridge will still be centered around the 4-corners region.
135 AM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022 Rain chances increase again this afternoon into early Saturday with a crossing cold front. Lack of return flow ahead of the trough will result in initially-dry and stable low-levels, but sufficient synoptic-scale lift underneath the divergent right-entrance region of a 125+kt jet streak and available mid-level moisture coincident with mid-level convergence will allow for light stratiform precipitation to overspread the area by Friday evening. Building high pressure in wake of the trough and dry northerly flow will quickly erode any precipitation on Friday night. Otherwise a very pleasant weekend is on deck as building high pressure across the Great Lakes will filter in drier and cooler air from the north.
/issued 246 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022/ High pressure will dominate the upper level pattern tonight through Saturday morning.
408 AM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022 GOES-16 satellite-derived vorticity products highlight two areas of cyclonic flow that are acting to disrupt the large-scale ridge over the North Atlantic. Skies are partly cloudy across the island chain, with temperatures currently in the lower to mid 80s.
145 AM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022 Broad high pressure will move off the New England Coast through Friday. A cold front moves south across the area Friday evening. Strong high pressure will build south out of Canada across the Great Lakes region over the weekend. High pressures remains over the area through this evening before dissipating tonight ahead of a cold front approaching from the north with the cold front located across southern Michigan/Ontario and north of Lake Erie by 12Z Friday. Easterly- moving rain showers are expected to develop ahead of this cold front, approaching the I-75 corridor Friday morning, expanding eastward to the I-71/480/80 corridor by Friday afternoon, and then scattering out Friday night. High pressure builds over the southern Great Lakes region Saturday in the wake of the cold front, ushering in pleasant temperatures and dewpoints for early July.
Compressional nature to boundary flow will add to the high temperatures.
1249 AM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022 Rain chances increase again this afternoon into early Saturday with a crossing cold front. Lack of return flow ahead of the trough will result in initially-dry and stable low-levels, but sufficient synoptic-scale lift underneath the divergent right-entrance region of a 125+kt jet streak and available mid-level moisture coincident with mid-level convergence will allow for light stratiform precipitation to overspread the area by Friday evening. Building high pressure in wake of the trough and dry northerly flow will quickly erode any precipitation on Friday night. Otherwise a very pleasant weekend is on deck as building high pressure across the Great Lakes will filter in drier and cooler air from the north.
The location of the highest totals as described above is in a region that missed out on the recent heavy rain. Renewed flooding isn't off the table for locatitargetingons north of the above mentioned line despite the lower anticipated storms totals.
Although it won't be as warm as yesterday, highs in the low to mid 90s and abundant low level moisture will put Heat Index values in the 103 to 108 range. Upper level pattern will begin to transition as the ridge over the far western US and eastern Pacific has broken down.
Weakly cyclonic upper-level flow will be in place to start the period, with an associated weak cold front sinking south across northern Lower Michigan this morning. The upper-level flow trends more neutral later today into tonight, as high pressure starts building in at the surface. The air coming in behind the front is only slightly cooler that what precedes it. Temperatures will average 5-10 degrees cooler than the previous 24 hours, with today's highs mainly in the mid 70s and tonight's lows around 50.
Water vapour showed wave east of the CWA, which is helping convection along outflow boundary with upper ridge building in behind it. Friday, upper/thermal ridge builds into the CWA. Saturday, upper/thermal ridge peaks promoting temperatures well into the 90s with some 100F readings on the SD plains.