Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Increased winds and wind gusts peaking this morning along the immediate interface between the mountains and plains due to a bit stronger lee troughing than initially indicated in the models. This lee trough and associated winds/wind gusts will weaken through tonight as surface pressures lower to the west of the mountains as a low pressure system moves toward our region. CC High pressure over the region will bring overall dry conditions today and tonight with just some patchy fog across portions of north-central Montana this morning and likely to redevelop again tonight.
The most significant changes are with the latest guidance coming in a couple of degrees cooler for tonight into Thursday morning. Confidence is still low at this time as 2-3 mph difference in the winds will likely mean the difference in above or below freezing temperatures in the western and northwestern counties.
241 PM CST Wed Mar 7 2018 241 PM CST Unseasonably chilly conditions will persist through Thursday as a deep upper level low centered over Lake Michigan this afternoon slowly pivots southeastward to the eastern Great Lakes by late Thursday. Stratocu should slowly erode from the west on Thursday as the influence of the upper low diminishes with its exit east.
Low pressure just off the Mid Atlantic Coast will continue to move east northeast tonight into Thursday into the Northern Atlantic waters, as the associated cold front over the southern portion of South Florida moves south into the Florida Straits. This will allow for high pressure to build into the Florida Peninsula from the north for late this week leading to northern wind flow along with much drier and cooler weather for South Florida.
Aloft, the area is under a northwest flow on the backside of an east coast trough.
235 PM MST Wed Mar 7 2018 High pressure over the region will bring overall dry conditions through tonight with just some patchy fog across portions of north-central Montana tonight.
Cooper High pressure will continue to build into Arkansas today.
222 PM MST Wed Mar 7 2018 A broad upper ridge is in place over the Pac_NW, resulting in northwest flow aloft for NE MT. As the ridge nudges closer, temperatures will creep up. Thursday afternoon and evening, the warm front disturbance brings limited moisture that may produce a half inch or so of snow. Expect a slightly warmer day that today.
313 PM CST Wed Mar 7 2018 A strong 522 dm 500 mb low pressure over west central lower MI was generating broken to overcast stratocumulus clouds with bases of 3-5k ft over central and southeast IL along with isolated light snow showers and scattered flurries over central and eastern IL. Strong mid/upper level low pressure to track into southeast lower MI and southern Lake Huron by midnight tonight, pivoting a short wave from southeast SD and nw Iowa se across MO during this evening. Some decrease in the low clouds overnight especially over western CWA. Strong mid/upper level low to move over Lake Erie and nw PA Thu afternoon, with IL in a cool nw upper level flow.
Deep areas of low pressure, one over the Great Lakes and another off the West Coast, will keep all the activity to our east and west while we see a ridge approach from the west. The thickest clouds will move into the Four Corners shortly after noon today and spread throughout the lower half of our forecast area. High temperatures will jump a few degrees from what we saw yesterday while overnight lows will be a bit warmer thanks to the cloud cover. The high pressure ridge will flatten Thursday night as a trough over the Pacific Northwest drifts eastward across the northwestern U.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 32 47 29 / 10 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 44 30 42 27 / 10 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 44 31 44 26 / 10 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 41 28 39 24 / 30 20 30 10.
307 PM CST Wed Mar 7 2018 The main impacts moving forward are continued elevated fire weather and a cold front with associated showers and storms this weekend.
1249 PM EST Wed Mar 7 2018 An active weather pattern continues through the week as rounds of low pressure bring periods of rain, snow, and mixed precipitation. More showery precipitation is occurring towards the ridges and across southeast Ohio. There is a modest upslope component developing, so highest PoPs will focus on the ridges with time. However, the upper level low will cross the area late Thursday afternoon/evening, promising another round of snow areawide.
Central PA will remain under the influence of a broad/deep upper trough through the end of the week with a prolonged, seasonably cold westerly flow and core midlevel energy tracking across the area later Thursday and Thursday night. For now, stayed close to multi model blend which yields additional lake-enhanced snowfall amounts on the order of a few to several inches over the higher terrain. The upper level low continues to move through the region through the later half of the week and into the weekend. As this low rotates around it will bring cold northwesterly flow which should drop temperatures to below normal.
Central PA will remain under the influence of a broad/deep upper trough through the end of the week with a prolonged, seasonably cold westerly flow and core midlevel energy tracking across the area later Thursday and Thursday night. For now, stayed close to multi model blend which yields additional lake-enhanced snowfall amounts on the order of a few to several inches over the higher terrain. Approach of upper low brings a return of low ceilings and snow showers to the northwest Alleghenies and Laurel Highlands that linger through the end of the week.
314 PM CST Wed Mar 7 2018 The forecast area is continuing to experience northwest flow aloft as an expansive upper low remains over the Great Lakes region. A surface cold front moved southeast through the forecast area earlier today in dry fashion. Winds remain breezy at times this afternoon as the lower levels remain well mixed in the wake of the cold front passage.
Aloft - a complex low rotates across the Great Lakes and the northeastern states with troughing extending down to the Gulf of Mexico that slides eastward. A ridge over the Intermountain West shifts across the Rockies. Surface - a frontal boundary across south FL exits into Cuba and the Bahamas tonight as Canadian high pressure sprawling over the central U. The high building in to the west then easing toward the area will be in control with a northwesterly low level and dry flow.
245 PM CST Wed Mar 7 2018 A ridge of high pressure over the Plains will shift east into Missouri on Thursday.
While there were a few freezing temps reported by sensors located in the lowest relative locations in the Hill Country, an influx of more high cloudiness late tonight should keep the lower readings in the mid 30s or higher. South sfc winds should overtake all areas by midday Thursday with the cool start to the day, combined with some added high clouds expected to hold Thursday's highs to near persistence with today or possibly a degree or two cooler.
936 AM PST Wed Mar 7 2018 A ridge aloft will continue fair and mild weather with light winds through Thursday.
343 PM CST Wed Mar 7 2018 The primary forecast challenge through Thursday is temperature as the pesky upper low slowly moves over the Great Lakes and a ridge builds over the Rockies. Cumulus fields developed this afternoon over the Sandhills with weak fgen and remaining cooler conditions in the mid levels. Lowered min temps (moreso in the Platte River Valley), especially with guidance trending cooler. With the upper ridge expanding onto the High Plains and an H85 thermal ridge approaching the area, the warming trend is on track.
Upper air analysis last evening showed zonal flow over Texas with a ridge over the west coast. At the surface, high pressure was moving over Central Texas with winds across our CWA from the north through northeast. This flow was bringing cooler, drier air with temperatures and dewpoint temperatures 5 to 10 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. The high will move to the east tonight and Thursday turning the low level winds to the east and then southeast by Thursday.
246 PM EST Wed Mar 7 2018 Latest water vapor imagery and RAP analysis shows a closed low over northern Lake Mi. Models indicate this low which provided enhancement to lake effect snow last night is expected to slide se tonight and reach the Lower Great Lakes by Thu morning. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge in the Rockies 12z Thu with a closed low north of Toronto. Troughing then moves into the northern plains late Fri night. A trough moves into the upper Great Lakes 12z Sun. A strong 500 mb ridge moves into the western U. Troughing remains on the east coast from Mon into Wed.
236 PM MST Wed Mar 7 2018 Current surface analysis shows high pressure centered over western ND, with frontal boundary just southwest of the area. Upper level analysis shows low pressure over the Great Lakes, with northwest flow over the Northern Plains, and a ridge along the west coast. A warming trend will take place late this week as western US ridge slowly moves east.
1139 AM CST Wed Mar 7 2018 Clearing skies this morning will give way to a sunny afternoon across the region in the wake of yesterdays strong low pressure system. While this low is currently across the Great Lakes region and the pressure gradient has relaxed significantly across the local area. these relatively lighter winds along with ample sunshine and warmer temperatures should make for a nicer day across the region. these warmer temperatures and somewhat gusty winds could also result in elevated to near critical fire weather concerns across portions of north central Kansas this afternoon. with overnight lows dipping into the lower to mid teens. The warm advection will continue into Thursday night with warmer temperatures again.
Moisture is pretty limited with this clipper (generally 700mb and below), however, somewhat steep lapse rates in the low/mid levels of the atmosphere due to cold air aloft should allow some saturation in the DGZ for a very brief period. With surface air temperatures near the freezing mark when the snow begins, and road temperatures getting close to the freezing mark, would not be surprised to see some of the snow stick to roads and lead to slick spots tomorrow morning. Clouds should gradually decrease from west to east late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night as drier air is advected into the lower levels of the atmosphere from the northwest.
The upper trof's passage thru the lower Ohio river valley brought a little light snow shower activity, but amounts have been trace/negligible. Wind/cloud will make for a cold/raw day, still under the influence of the long wave trofing on this part of the country. That'll last a good couple days, with the cooler temps/highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s.
1129 AM CST Wed Mar 7 2018 Flow aloft has become northwesterly across the region, as a significant low pressure system pushes east through the Great Lakes today, and a ridge builds over the western half of the country. Clearing skies this afternoon will allow temperatures to warm into the lower 40s near the Kansas/Nebraska border.
1017 AM MST Wed Mar 7 2018 Current surface analysis shows high pressure centered over western ND, with frontal boundary just southwest of the area. Upper level analysis shows low over the Great Lakes, with northwest flow over the Northern Plains, and a ridge along the west coast. Upper low spins over the Great Lakes, while a ridge builds over the western CONUS. Quiet weather and a warming trend are expected through the end of the workweek, as the upper ridge shifts over the central states.
Northwest winds in the 15 to 20 MPH range will subside after sundown as high pressure becomes nearly centered over the ArkLaTex. Lows will bottom out in the 30s areawide, with a few locations dipping to the freezing mark by early Thursday morning.
A large trough of low pressure aloft will provide the necessary lift, and will also pull moisture off Lake Michigan, to keep the snow showers going. The snow showers will become a bit more widespread tonight, as a short wave moves around the base of the trough. The snow should then taper off during the day on Thursday, and should finally exit the area by the end of the day, as the trough axis slowly pushes off to the east. The period will begin dry, but the developing warm front or perhaps a quasi-stationary boundary will setup across the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valley.
Satellite imagery shows an upper low spinning well off the Northern California coast sending a moist southwest flow over our area. Temperatures today look to be similar to yesterday but with cloudy skies tonight and warm advection, temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees warmer tonight and mainly in the 30s.
346 PM CST Wed Mar 7 2018 A broad trough continues to affect the eastern CONUS this afternoon, supporting the nor'easter bringing strong winds and winter weather to the northeast. These freezing temperatures will be covered by a Special Weather Statement instead.
254 PM CST Wed Mar 7 2018 18Z surface data has high pressure over the Plains with a storm system. Dew points in the 20s ran from the Ohio Valley into the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Plains. medium to high confidence Quiet and dry conditions should be seen across the area as high pressure begins building into the Midwest.
224 PM MST Wed Mar 7 2018 Periodic thick high clouds will spread across the region this week despite high pressure locked in place. These clouds are emanating from lower latitudes of the east Pacific and are being advected inland from a positively tilted upper trough centered off of the Oregon/NorCal coast. However, the lower troposphere is still quite dry. Despite the increasing cloud cover, it hasn't been thick enough to put much of a dent in the temperatures - due at least in part to continued subsidence warming from the ridge. Anticipate thinner cirrus on Thursday which will make for slightly warmer high temperatures (more noticeably over SE CA). That means readings in the low 80s across the lower elevations.
303 PM EST Wed Mar 7 2018 Latest water vapor imagery and RAP analysis shows a closed low over northern Lake Mi. Models indicate this low which provided enhancement to lake effect snow last night is expected to slide se tonight and reach the Lower Great Lakes by Thu morning. Light lake effect Wed night gradually diminishes through the end of the week, with only some flurries expected by Sat due to a ridge passing through.
Overall, have expanded the warning west a few counties and have included the entire rest of the lower Peninsula in an advisory.
Otherwise, the forecast looks good with the high clouds moving over and warmer temperatures.
High pressure aloft will move slowly east though tonight, allowing a low pressure system to approach from the southwest. This system will move across the region on Thursday for locally heavy snow in the mountains and locally windy conditions over the lowlands.
Upper ridge will provide the region with dry conditions today. Clouds will continue to increase ahead of an approaching upper trough. VFR under an increasing mid to high level cloud deck ahead of an incoming upper level trough. Upper level ridge will remain over the region today for temperatures near normal. Clouds will increase from the southwest ahead of an approaching upper level trough that will affect the area later tonight into Thursday. The upper level trough will continue to impact the area Thursday night, spreading more shower activity and some gusty wind across the area.
309 PM CST Wed Mar 7 2018 241 PM CST Unseasonably chilly conditions will persist through Thursday as a deep upper level low centered over Lake Michigan this afternoon slowly pivots southeastward to the eastern Great Lakes by late Thursday. Stratocu should slowly erode from the west on Thursday as the influence of the upper low diminishes with its exit east. Castro 309 PM CST The upper level pattern is transitioning to a high amplitude, long wavelength pattern with high amplitude ridging over the wrn CONUS and troughing east of the Rockies. Castro 309 PM CST Low pressure over the Eastern Great Lakes will remain in place through Thursday afternoon. Meanwhile, high pressure will build over the Plains tonight.
High pressure over Texas will allow for decreasing northerly winds this afternoon and tonight.
256 PM CST Wed Mar 7 2018 Upper troughing to remain over the eastern U. Within that trough, another weak upper level energy impulse will traverse the mid state overnight.
Current temps are in the lower 40s and with some cloud cover scattering out across NW AL, temps will warm up a few more degrees. The lingering cloud cover and light winds will prevent overnight lows from tanking but a reinforcing cold front will move in tonight. With temps reaching below freezing for a few hours early Thursday morning, we will continue the Freeze Warning for the forecast area. Flurries are best possible to our northeast as the trough axis swings through overnight, so continued to keep those out of the forecast at this time for Southern Middle TN. With high pressure building into the region on Thursday, conditions will be dry, cool and breezy. As the high shifts eastward overnight, winds slack and clear skies allow for good radiational cooling.
Subsident northwest flow has enveloped all of SE Arizona this afternoon as deep troughing progresses through the plains and flat ridging builds over the eastern Pacific.
315 PM MDT Tue Apr 3 2018 Strong northwesterly winds are decreasing across the area as an upper trough pushes out into the Great Plains and surface gradients weaken. Northwesterly flow aloft will continue across the area through Wednesday as heights aloft increase bringing a warmer airmass to the area. Expect max temperatures Wednesday to be 10 to 15 degrees warmer than today with another dry airmass.
Hunch tells me we may be overdoing the High Wind Warning for many but we'll see how it goes. Low temperatures in the low to mid 30s.
252 PM MDT Tue Apr 3 2018 Upper level analysis has vigorous low and associated trof over the eastern Dakotas, with ridging across the western Conus. Upper low and trof will continue to push east as western ridge shifts into the Northern Rockies. Warmer and drier weather is expected for Wednesday, as upper ridging sets up over the western CONUS.
A period of freezing rain is also expected late this afternoon and evening over se WI as a dry slot aloft may eliminate snow crystal introduction. The passage of the 500 mb upper trough and associated frontogenesis will then occur throughout the night with mixed pcpn changing to all snow by late evening over far se WI.
342 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018 Main concern comes late this afternoon/early tonight as broad mid level trof and associated strong cold front move rapidly east toward the region. Storms should sweep east to near the OH/MS river confluence zone up toward the Wabash River valley by 00z (6-7 PM CDT) this evening, then exit our e/se counties by 02-03Z as the cold front passes through that region.
345 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018 Rain chances will be increasing for the rest of the afternoon and on into this evening and overnight as showers and thunder- storms along and ahead of a cold front move across the area.
Warmer and drier weather is expected for Wednesday, as upper ridging sets up over the western CONUS.
However, the wrap around precipitation associated with the 500 mb trough will move across the northern part of the state. A cloudy sky should hold over the area through the evening hours but then gradually clear late tonight through tomorrow as the 500 mb trof shifts off to our east.
/issued 322 AM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018/ High pressure is forecast to hold on for one more day, before being pushed eastward by an approaching trough. There is some weak ridging at 500mb as well. By Wednesday, the upper level trough, and a surface cold front will turn the wind more southerly in the morning, then westerly in the afternoon. The associated cold front stretches to the south southwest, from New England , down the eastern seaboard, and across the Florida Panhandle, into the Gulf. However, the high behind the front should be strong enough to push this front through the area, perhaps, just into the Florida Straits.
Still expecting a couple more hours of light to moderate snow across northern Iowa /mainly north of US20/ as another band of snow associated with the upper low moves through the area. impacts have been more muted due to road/ground temps near or above freezing and generally less intense snowfall rates. /Wednesday night through Tuesday/ Forecast Confidence: Medium Upper level pattern in the longer range will continue to be dominated by broad troughing in the east and ridging along the west coast.
325 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018 Wx map shows cold front over N TX & SE OK this afternoon. Expecting winds to diminish by late this afternoon into early evening as the frontal trough approaches. Once this area moves east, another area of thunderstorms will likely develop along and just ahead of the cold front, which will spread southeast across our area by late this evening into the early morning hours. This next area of convection is expected to be a more organized line of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms developing along or just ahead of the cold front. Cooler and much drier air will follow along with clearing skies by late Wednesday morning across the area.
Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough moving into the Northern High Plains. Northwest flow aloft will continue well into the weekend as a ridge of high pressure develops off to the west.
Issued by National Weather Service Tucson AZ 200 PM MST Tue Apr 3 2018 The storm track will remain well to the north through the week resulting in dry conditions and warmer than average temperatures with highs in the lower 90s across the lower deserts. With upper level heights and thicknesses running a bit higher than average the temperatures will follow, especially in the afternoon where highs will run 6-12 degrees warmer than average through the next seven days. As we enter the weekend a deep trough will approach the west coast resulting in plenty of wind and rain for the coastal region and further inland north of central and southern Arizona.
A cold front will approach and move into our westernmost zones by daybreak. Lows will be in the lower to mid 60s.
Cold front pushing through the forecast area has already cleared BVO/TUL/RVS and will clear the remaining terminals by 21Z. Strong cold front is pushing its way through the forecast area today and currently sits just northwest of I-44. MVFR ceilings this morning will improve to VFR this afternoon following the passage of a cold front. Will not mention any precipitation today due to the low probability of occurrence at any given site. Surface warm front is just north of the KS/OK border early this morning. Winds drop off tonight and excellent radiational cooling will allow temps to drop into the lower 20s across northeast Oklahoma to lower 30s farther south.
241 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018 Forecast highlights in the short term period will be a bit warmer conditions tomorrow with mainly dry conditions through the period. Weak WAA continues in the day Wednesday along with more sunshine, with daytime highs 10-15 degrees warmer than today, yet still well below normal for early April.
Have expanded Winter Weather Advisory south to include much of Interstate 80 corridor and a county or so south as freezing drizzle had become more widespread and causing traffic problems.
A low pressure system is expected to move through the area this afternoon and evening.
The clearer skies and sun will definitely prime the atmosphere before the very strong cold front moves across the mid south this evening and overnight. The freezing level at 18Z should be around 11K ft and going up a bit to 12K around 21Z. Being the mid south with a very strong cold front moving through also can/t rule out a few weak brief spin ups. A very strong cold front will swing through the state this afternoon and evening increasing the threat of thunderstorms and lowering the ceilings.
Otherwise, expect fog to quickly mix out by mid-morning and temperatures to warm into the low to mid 80s for highs once again today.