Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
VFR conditions will remain in place for most terminals through the period, but as a cold front sags south more widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the area. Today Through Friday Mid/upper ridging continues exerting its influence locally with slightly greater convective coverage today as opposed to previous days. The once stagnant mid/upper ridge will finally give way tomorrow as it begins to retrograde across TX, arriving over the Desert Southwest by the weekend. To the east, large scale mid/upper troughing will expand and deepen as a strong closed upper cyclone moves across New England. Some lingering precip may be ongoing over southern sections by the end of the period, although most locations will begin drying out as high pressure settles in from the north.
Sfc cold front located north of the state will push south through the state by Friday afternoon. Temps will be a bit cooler on Friday, but greater relief will hold off until Friday night when Td values fall rapidly.
1001 PM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021 Although most locations across northern AL/southern TN remain dry this evening, a few showers continue around the region, with this activity likely being maintained by strengthening southwesterly flow and warm advection aloft downstream from a mid-level trough digging into southern Ontario. Temperatures will fall well below normal behind the front on Friday, with highs struggling to top the lower 80s. In wake of the strong cold front that moved across the Tennessee Valley region early Friday, a slightly cooler and dry air mass will filter into the forecast area. With high pressure building in from the northwest, we can expect plenty of sunshine each day to go along with the dry conditions.
143 AM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021 High pressure ridging into the area from the western Atlantic will move east and lose its influence across the region. An upper trough digging into the eastern states will drive a cold front through the area Friday night. High pressure aloft over the Western Atlantic Ocean will shift eastward on Thursday in response to a digging upper level trough over the Midwest. An unseasonably strong cold front will push into and through The Midlands and CSRA Friday afternoon and night.
1052 PM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021 Next in series of mid level troughs working into the western Great Lakes this afternoon. Meanwhile another short wave trough follows the first dropping into the region early Thursday.
The amplified upper level pattern continues with an anomalously strong ridge over the Northern Rockies and the western Canadian Prairies. The upper level ridge axis will slowly continue east tomorrow with high temperatures across western and central North Dakota into the upper 80s to mid 90s expected, along with mostly sunny skies and diurnally driven fair weather cumulus. Lows may be slightly warmer than previous nights due to more persistent southeast flow, down to the mid 50s to low 60s. Friday into the weekend will begin the hottest days of the period as the amplified ridge moves over the Northern Plains.
1228 AM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021 A cold front will slowly move south toward Downeast areas overnight. The front will then slowly settle over the Gulf of Maine later Thursday into Friday as low pressure moves east along the front.
An upper level low to our south combined with just enough monsoon moisture was enough to spark isolated shower and thunder activity over far southwest MT this evening. The strong upper level high pressure ridge responsible for the hot weather will gradually weaken as it moves to the northeast, thereby allowing temperatures to cool into the lower and mid 90s over the weekend.
Scattered showers and storms will impact area sites later this morning and through the day as a cold front moves through the region. Some MVFR ceilings are possible in the vicinity of the cold front this morning.
A mid to upper level ridge will continue to build over the area, helping to limit any convective development for today. This drier air combined with the mid-level ridge should limit any convective activity, with only very isolated showers expected.
Lingering precipitation should be pushing out of the area this morning with high pressure building in.
A cold front will approach the area today bringing showers and thunderstorms. Showers will continue through Friday as the cold front finally exits the area. Showers should exit the area by Friday night as high pressure begins to settle over the region. Behind the front, cooler/less humid air will filter in. High temperatures will be in the lower 80s and lows will be in the 60s. Expect a mostly dry Independence Day weekend, as northerly flow and our high pressure will keep rain chances out of the area through the weekend. An upper- level ridge will build over the area allowing weak disturbances to push through.
Showers and thunderstorms have developed ahead of a cold front that will slowly push rain south through the day. A cold front currently located along I-80 in northern Illinois will sweep south over the region as the day progresses, triggering showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. Friday begins a gorgeous holiday weekend as high pressure moves in and calm weather prevails.
Although most locations across northern AL/southern TN remain dry this evening, a few showers continue around the region, with this activity likely being maintained by strengthening southwesterly flow and warm advection aloft downstream from a mid-level trough digging into southern Ontario. Temperatures will fall well below normal behind the front on Friday, with highs struggling to top the lower 80s. In wake of the strong cold front that moved across the Tennessee Valley region early Friday, a slightly cooler and dry air mass will filter into the forecast area. With high pressure building in from the northwest, we can expect plenty of sunshine each day to go along with the dry conditions.
Cooler temperatures for tomorrow before above average temperatures enter the fray for Friday and into the weekend. The region still has cyclonic flow aloft as an upper level trough deepens on its way towards the eastern Great Lakes. 88 inches and warm nose in the lower levels. Cooler temperatures will permeate for Thursday with highs in the lower 70s by the Lake and lower 80s further away. The anomalous ridging that has been dominating the Pacific Northwest with record setting temperatures begins to move east.
The upper trough over the Great Lakes continues to strengthen and push southeastward, while the incredibly strong upper ridge over western Canada and the Pacific Northwest shifts eastward.
244 AM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021 The axis of the broad 500mb trough will swing SE across the FA through early Friday while at the surface a cold front will move into the NW part of the FA this afternoon and be south of the MO-AR, KY-TN border by about daybreak Friday. This combined with the transition of falling heights and an approaching cold front will yield high rain chances today, and then linger into the evening across the southern part of the FA. The main concern, given the high precipitable water values, is flash flooding potential, albeit it fairly limited per the WPC Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook.
154 AM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021 Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop this evening and continue through Thursday as a cold front travels from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley.
A diffuse upper-level low pressure currently centered over northern Utah and southern Idaho meanders its way poleward during the day. In the mid-levels, Gulf of Mexico-sourced moisture is advected around the east and northeast side of the low toward Wyoming. 8 inch range for the lower elevations, which is in the 80th to 90th percentile for this time of year. High-resolution models have been showing a vorticity maximum passing the northern half of the Upper Green River Basin and the Teton Valley during the afternoon, and since this may aid in providing an impetus for lift, these locations have been highlighted with the highest PoPs. Given the location of the low, the Bighorns and the Powder River Basin have a better chance for greater storm coverage Friday. A low-amplitude ridge builds over Wyoming for the Fourth of July weekend.
Expect highs in the low 80s across southwest Nebraska into the upper 80s in far north central Nebraska today. For Friday, highs rise into the mid 80s for southwest Nebraska into the low 90s for north central Nebraska.
Friday will be dry and pleasant as the mid-level ridge edges closer to the area. Guidance remains consistent for a dry and very warm to hot holiday weekend as the mid-level ridge continues to build across the area. The EC Extreme Forecast Index/Shift of Tails suggests the most anomalous warmth stays just west/north of the area through the weekend, but there is certainly a signal in the NAEFS guidance for above average temps during the weekend with highs at least into the upper 80s/low 90s for most areas and more than likely some mid 90s, especially in the warmer valley locations.
242 AM MDT Thu Jul 1 2021 Current surface map places high pressure over the western Great Lakes with weak trof across Montana into western South Dakota. Upper level high over Alberta/Saskatchewan shifts eastward today while weak mid level low embedded in monsoon flow slowly lifts through the Rockies. Better chance of thunderstorms Friday as embedded impulse in monsoon moves into the high plains.
Mid level ridge centered across cntl Tx should suppress rain chances for most of the area.
JW 06Z TAFS: The strong ridge of high pressure will continue to ease eastward overnight.
302 AM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021 Happy Thursday! Today marks the first day of our pattern shift away from our summertime airmass that we have seen as of late and into a cooler and eventually drier weather pattern. This coupled with generally northerly flow will keep rain chances out of the area through the weekend as well as usher in unseasonably cooler temps.
With the onshore flow, strong flow through the Delta and lower heights due to a trough in the PacNW we will see daytime highs a few degrees cooler today compared to yesterday. As we head into the weekend flow over the PacNW will become more zonal allowing the desert SW ridge to build back into NorCal.
Winds will generally be less than 10 kts and variable in direction, especially as a cold front moves south into the state. Sfc cold front located north of the state will push south through the state by Friday afternoon. Temps will be a bit cooler on Friday, but greater relief will hold off until Friday night when Td values fall rapidly.
Upper level ridging continues to linger over the area. Friday, with the approach of an upper level trof, isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to begin across the southwest, and then, to move northeastward across the region.
A cold front extending WSW from low pressure east of New England should move across the forecast area during Fri, a bit slower than previous guidance suggested. High temperatures for the end of the work week should range in the low/mid 80s.
(Today through Friday afternoon) Upper ridge over TX today will result in less precipitation and warmer temperatures. On Friday the ridge will be centered directly over the region. However, also on Friday a cold front is expected to move down into the area during the afternoon. With less rain around today expecting temperatures to be 2 to 3 degrees warmer for most locations. Expect a little warmer again Friday except behind the front.
409 AM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021 Bermuda high in place at surface and aloft, with an inverted trough or weak upper low over the northern Gulf of Mexico.
These conditions will continue through much of the day as the shower and storms activity continues as a cold front slowly moves through the region. /Issued 258 AM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021/ Satellite imagery/areas radars are detecting developing convection from western KS into far southeastern KS, along the northern periphery of the upper ridge. Weak mid-level troffing will develop through the southern Plains by mid week, with low chances of showers/storms returning.
532 AM MDT Thu Jul 1 2021 Current surface map places high pressure over the western Great Lakes with weak trof across Montana into western South Dakota. Upper level high over Alberta/Saskatchewan shifts eastward today while weak mid level low embedded in monsoon flow slowly lifts through the Rockies. Better chance of thunderstorms Friday as embedded impulse in monsoon moves into the high plains.
401 AM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021 Currently a deep trough is located over Ontario and the Great Lakes region while an anomalous ridge remains over central Canada. Locally the Central Plains remains under very weak ridging/nearly zonal flow.
620 AM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021 The region is on the east side of the upper ridge propagating eastward toward the northern plains. Guidance in very good agreement with upper ridging propagating into and over the region by Friday. Airmass will continue to warm each day, with daytime temperatures near 90F today, and into the low/mid 90s Friday. A ridge continues to translate across the region over the weekend, with zonal flow setting up after. Under the ridge temperatures continue to be hot, with record setting highs possible.
Similar to yesterday, the low clouds will clear back to the coast with inland sunshine by the afternoon. A few global models show a robust ridge over SoCal while others show a trough approaching from the West.
411 AM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021 Upper ridge over the southeastern portion of the country slowly losing ground to an upper level trough digging in over the Great Lakes/Midwest, adding to the summer pattern of diurnal showers and thunderstorms. daytime highs in the lower 90s and ample humidity driving the heat indices into the upper 90s/near 100F at the max heat of day. A deep longwave trough will swing across the ArkLaMiss Friday along with it's associated cold front that will push through the area. The cold front looks to be pretty strong and both the GFS and ECMWF are in majority agreement now that the front will push through fairly quickly on Friday however, timing of the front continues to be the main question.
Upper ridge over the southeastern portion of the country slowly losing ground to an upper level trough digging in over the Great Lakes/Midwest, adding to the summer pattern of diurnal showers and thunderstorms. daytime highs in the lower 90s and ample humidity driving the heat indices into the upper 90s/near 100F at the max heat of day. A deep longwave trough will swing across the ArkLaMiss Friday along with it's associated cold front that will push through the area. The cold front looks to be pretty strong and both the GFS and ECMWF are in majority agreement now that the front will push through fairly quickly on Friday however, timing of the front continues to be the main question.
Valley areas in western Montana and Lemhi County, ID will continue to see highs reach into the mid to upper-90s, while lower elevations in the Lower Hells Canyon/Salmon River and Orofino regions will see highs continue to soar above the century mark.
Happy Thursday! Today marks the first day of our pattern shift away from our summertime airmass that we have seen as of late and into a cooler and eventually drier weather pattern. This coupled with generally northerly flow will keep rain chances out of the area through the weekend as well as usher in unseasonably cooler temps.
The axis of the broad 500mb trough will swing SE across the FA through early Friday while at the surface a cold front will move into the NW part of the FA this afternoon and be south of the MO-AR, KY-TN border by about daybreak Friday. This combined with the transition of falling heights and an approaching cold front will yield high rain chances today, and then linger into the evening across the southern part of the FA. The main concern, given the high precipitable water values, is flash flooding potential, albeit it fairly limited per the WPC Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook.
622 AM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021 Early morning water vapor imagery shows an elongated upper trough swinging over the Great Lakes region, with the western extent moving southwards across the northern plains. Areas west of I-29 will likely begin to see slightly breezy conditions from the south by the afternoon hours, and will thus be able to mix down warmer air aloft keeping afternoon temperatures in the lower 90s.
436 AM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021 Upper level high pressure is located just east of the forecast area this morning. With heights aloft increasing yet again today temperatures are expected to be near to slightly warmer than yesterday in the mid 80's to lower 90's. /WCI The aforementioned cold front should be most of the way through the CWFA by Friday morning. Upper-level flow will become northwesterly Friday as an upper-level trough deepens into the eastern and central CONUS from the Great Lakes region. This will bring the potential for storms that form off of the higher terrain of New Mexico to move into the area.
Thunderstorm activity on Friday will be confined mainly to locations north of the Highway 50 corridor. Mid-level moisture trapped under the lingering high pressure over the Great Basin region will combine with weak to moderate instability, and elevated dew points, to produce isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity today. Across northern NV, expect temperatures to be very close to the highs we had yesterday. Across central NV, highs today are expected to be a couple to a few degrees warmer than yesterday. On Friday the shower and thunderstorm activity will linger over northern NV, however areas near and south of the Highway 50 corridor will have fewer clouds as drier and more stable air moves up into central NV.
Broad mid level col in place over the eastern GOMEX/ western FL will gradually be replaced by the base of a deepening eastern CONUS trough by tonight.
638 AM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021 Currently a deep trough is located over Ontario and the Great Lakes region while an anomalous ridge remains over central Canada. Locally the Central Plains remains under very weak ridging/nearly zonal flow.
Upper level ridging remains rooted over the south-central U. An upper level trough pushes in across the Great Lakes region tonight into Friday, digging into the southeastern U. At the surface, an area of low pressure slowly develops over the northeastern U. Overnight lows remain in the lower to middle 70's.
257 PM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021 A cold front will continue to push into the Mid-South tonight. The high will bring low humidity levels to the area as drier air will continue to filter into the region. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, but will feel pleasant due to the low humidity.
The low pressure that was over northern Utah yesterday has shifted further north, though a last packet of energy rotating around it has been working through the area this afternoon. A digging trough on the East Coast will force an extension of the Bermuda High westward over the next day or so, with the center of circulation expected to settle over the Four Corners region. With this high building in, western Colorado and eastern Utah will see warming temperatures and drying conditions. This will set up a more typical summer pattern where storms fire off the higher terrain in the late morning and drift over selected valleys in the afternoons. PWAT values are expected to remain above average the next few days, despite the high pressure, as moisture will remain trapped and be recycled each day.
Areas from Syracuse to Ashland and west will be seeing the best opportunity for rain and storms through the evening as a backdoor cold front and high pressure center in Nebraska continues to slowly move to the southeast. Highs will range from the low 80s in the west where the clouds will hang around all day to the mid 80s in the east where we should get more sun.
A large, amplified upper level ridge continues to impact the region. Starting tonight, the upper level ridge will gradually deamplify with its axis shifting southeast, while an open wave moves out of the Northern Rockies on Friday. 850mb temperatures over the Northern Rockies will rise as the lower level air mass follows the ridge aloft, becoming 20 C to 24 C across the state, around the 90th percentile of NAEFS Climatological guidance.
147 PM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021 Showers and storms will continue today before subsiding tonight as cooler and drier air builds into the region for Friday into the upcoming weekend. Much cooler air will filter in tonight with lows bottoming out in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Will see the upper low close off in the eastern part of the Ohio Valley into the interior northeast by Friday afternoon/evening, with unseasonably dry air filtering into the region on the backside of the closed low.
1140 AM MDT Thu Jul 1 2021 Current surface map places high pressure over the western Great Lakes with weak trof across Montana into western South Dakota. Upper level high over Alberta/Saskatchewan shifts eastward today while weak mid level low embedded in monsoon flow slowly lifts through the Rockies. Better chance of thunderstorms Friday as embedded impulse in monsoon moves into the high plains.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will diminish early this evening behind this mornings cold front as diurnal heating diminishes. The cooler and dry air mass should keep highs down into the upper 70s Friday. Expansive high pressure will settle southeastward across the Midwest early in the weekend keeping the cool dry air mass and clear skies prevalent over central IL.
The main synoptic cold front has pressed south of the central IL forecast area, however only a slow filtering of less humid air behind the front will allow for isolated showers and thunderstorms developing through the afternoon with daytime heating. Along and south of the boundary dewpoints remain in the lower 70s providing 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE, while dewpoints in the 60s are filtering in behind with declining MLCAPE as a result. Highs generally rising to the low 80s today look good. A cold front currently located along I-80 in northern Illinois will sweep south over the region as the day progresses, triggering showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. Friday begins a gorgeous holiday weekend as high pressure moves in and calm weather prevails.
A weak cold front will move into through the Big Country Friday morning and through the rest of West Central Texas Friday afternoon. (Friday night through next Thursday) By Friday night, the weak cold front is expected to have moved into our forecast area, while extending to the northwest into the Permian Basin and Caprock areas.
This dry air will allow for lows to drop into the upper 50s across the northern counties and the low 60s to the south. High pressure will then quickly build during the late overnight hours and continue to strengthen tomorrow with mostly clear skies and highs only reaching into the mid 70s. Tomorrow will be ideal for outdoor activities with afternoon dewpoints in the low to mid 50s in addition to the cooler temperatures. Dry and quiet weather continues into Friday night with overnight lows dropping into the low to mid 50s as dry air combines with clear skies to create ideal radiational cooling conditions. Models are in good agreement on upper ridging starting to build in with high pressure sliding in at the surface for the weekend.
/Tonight through Friday Night/ The upper ridge that was centered over north-central Texas has shifted westward today.
Looks like the com- bination of the building mid/upper level ridges and lower PWs have made their presence known today. 4inches) and the front it- self should serve as a focus for scattered showers/isolated storms during the afternoon with the highest POPs for locations generally N/NE of the Houston metro. In the meantime, temperatures will warm into the lower to mid 90s. Lows tomorrow night could be a few deg- rees cooler given some slightly drier air and/or rain cooled air.
210 PM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021 As a deep upper trof moves across the Northeast, high pressure and drier air will settle south into the area.