Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1157 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2019 A steadily drying low level environment ensures clear skies hold across the lowest 10 kft through Monday morning. * None Abundant sunshine areawide in the wake of the surface cold front which cleared the area early this afternoon. These clouds are forecast to mainly cover the northwestern zones where current dewpoints are on the lower side, in the mid 40s.
Flat mid level ridging will build out across the Plains through Tuesday, with a gradually warmer airmass advecting east across the forecast area, ahead of a digging trof over the central/northern Rockies.
1105 PM MDT Sun Oct 6 2019 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over east central Canada, with high pressure centered over ID. Skies are sunny with temps generally in the mid 50s to mid 60s, cooler over the higher Black Hills. Quiet weather and a warming trend can be expected for the first part of the week as the ridge shifts east and eventually weakens with time. For the middle part of the week, the medium range models continue to show a strong upper trough and cold front moving through the region.
Dry weather and a warming trend will continue through Monday as a strong cold front approaches from the north. Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees cooler in most locations, except for little change in the Western Magic Valley and Southwest Twin Falls County due to the late arrival of the front.
Low amplitude upper ridge over SASK will shift east today. Ridge axis shifts east of the area this evening. With the upper ridge, milder weather is forecast for today with highs in the lower 60s and Tue in the middle to upper 60s. Upper level trough now over the northern BC coast will dig into the Pacific Northwest by 00Z Wed. Cold front will begin to move out of Canada and into MT and northwest ND by Tue afternoon.
A cold front is moving through the Mid-South this morning. Cooler air is working into the region behind the front. The cold front will push south of the Mid-South by 7-8 am. High will reach the lower 70s across the Delta where the sunshine will start to increase later this morning into this afternoon.
332 AM CDT Mon Oct 7 2019 The cold front has pushed through the FA bringing in the coolest air so far this season.
Thunderstorm activity over the Muscle Shoals/Florence area has died down, but more is on the horizon over western Tennessee ahead of the cold front. As alluded to in the previous discussion, the cold front should continue to make its way ewd across the area during the day Mon. Cooler air should also quickly spread into the area with the passage of the front, with more seasonal highs Mon in the lower/mid 70s for most spots. This trend will continue into Mon night, with seasonal lows early Tue in the lower/mid 50s, as high pressure builds ewd into the Midwest/OH Valley states.
Positive-tilt upper trough pushing southeast into the Plains today allowing for enough upglide in the shallow mid-level moisture for some spotty sprinkles in southern locations for much of the day. Frost potential also minimal with all guidance keeping lows in the upper 30s at the lowest and the aforementioned mixing. Conditions become more unsettled in the mid to late week with the upper trough to the northwest digging into the region.
The cold front currently moving through Kentucky and middle Tennessee will push through our area today as an upper level trough moves east into the region. Numerous showers will move across the area as the cold front moves through, and although convective energy looks quite limited still cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder.
/issued 624 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2019/ /00Z TAFS/ Scattered convection continues along and south of a cold front pushing across West Central Texas. Say Good Bye to the Pesky Heat and Possible Rain Mainly A cold front will push south, across West Central Texas, tonight and enhance the potential for rain.
Light winds, clear skies, and drier air will allow good radiational cooling tonight, with lows in the lower 50s.
Light and variable surface winds expected through sunrise as center of high pressure ridge remains over northern parts of forecast area.
Monday-Monday night: Southwest flow (increasing WAA), sunny/clear skies will support highs in the low to mid 60s and lows about 10F warmer (45-49). Tuesday brings warmer than average temperatures to the region with generally quiet weather expected across the CWA. A deep H5 trough will be moving southeastward out of British Columbia, into the northern US Rockies.
This low level flow field will still be recirculating modified cool air, but enough insolation should still allow most areas to hit 70F, or very close to it.
Lee troughing will ramp up for Tue as an impressive upper trough starts to dig over the Pacific Northwest. By Wed evening, deep upper trough is expected to extend from the northern Rockies into the Central Great Basin. Both ECMWF and GFS agree on swinging the deep trough out into the High Plains Thu afternoon into Thu evening with a strong cold front also pushing through the forecast area during the same time frame. High pressure will continue to build over the area bringing light winds.
Today Through Tuesday Night An upper trough continues over the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains with an upper ridge over the western U. The ridge moves east through the Plains tonight and Tuesday. Much cooler air arrives today and tonight. A couple of areas of showers and thunderstorms continue across the area this morning behind the cold front that has moved just south of the state line. High pressure will build into the area today and bring the showers and thunderstorms to an end this morning. Tonight will be clear and this will allow temperatures to fall to the mid 40s to the lower 50s.
A powerful upper jet across the northern Pacific will carve out a deep trof across western Canada today, with the system diving into the western states by mid-week.
Otherwise quiet weather expected for the first half of the week with high pressure in control.
With High pressure shifting overhead today, skies will clear and temperatures will quickly warm through the 50s and 60s this morning. With High pressure shifting towards the Midwest today, temps will rapidly increase through the morning, reaching the upper 60s to near 70 by midday.
For tonight, expect light winds with clear sky and trended cooler. The ridge will build east allowing winds to become more southerly. This coupled with ridging aloft will begin the warm trend. Models differ on timing of the cold front, but do agree that precip shud be east of the CWA late Fri night. With the trof over the region, expect temps to be the coolest so far this fall.
337 AM CDT Mon Oct 7 2019 The cold front finally blew through the area last night though temps have been slow to fall this morning with MAF currently still above 60 degrees.
High pressure will build to start the work week as the upper level system that brought rain to central Indiana this past weekend continues to move east.
Dry conditions and mostly clear skies are expected through tonight as a dome of high pressure slides east of the area with lee troughing developing across eastern Colorado.
This matches up with the highest area of moisture flux convergence in the 1000-850mb layer. Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 58 74 61 / 70 40 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 56 70 59 / 80 60 30 20 Oak Ridge, TN 71 55 71 60 / 80 50 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 72 55 68 55 / 90 70 50 20.
/issued 337 AM CDT Mon Oct 7 2019/ The cold front finally blew through the area last night though temps have been slow to fall this morning with MAF currently still above 60 degrees.
526 AM MDT Mon Oct 7 2019 The main weather story for the short term will be the zonal flow aloft ahead of a large Maritime Canadian trough developing over western British Columbia. Otherwise, temperatures will be quite pleasant with daytime highs in the 60s and 70s east and the upper 50s to low 60s across the higher terrain further west. Increasing cloud cover and strengthening winds will mean some warmer low temperatures for tonight across the area.
421 AM MDT Mon Oct 7 2019 The main weather story for the short term will be the zonal flow aloft ahead of a large Maritime Canadian trough developing over western British Columbia. Otherwise, temperatures will be quite pleasant with daytime highs in the 60s and 70s east and the upper 50s to low 60s across the higher terrain further west. Increasing cloud cover and strengthening winds will mean some warmer low temperatures for tonight across the area.
312 AM PDT Mon Oct 7 2019 Ridge across the district will keep temperatures above normal today into Tuesday.
722 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2019 Look for a wet day across the region as a cold front slowly moves across the area. Upper level ridging will bring drier and slowly moderating temperatures for the rest of the week.
Water vapor imagery highlights a broad upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. Diffluent flow to the east of the trough streams to the northeast across the Florida Keys and Florida, rounding the anticyclone over the Western Caribbean and Cuba. A trough of low pressure in the Straits of Florida will lift northward into South Florida this afternoon and tonight, before stalling on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Thereafter, high pressure will slowly build southward down the Sunshine State.
737 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2019 A trough near the coast, along with a weak front slowly moving through the region late today and Tuesday, will bring a slight chance of showers.
343 AM MDT Mon Oct 7 2019 Weak ridging is crossing the region at this time as over flow continues from the NW. Southwest flow will develop today, bringing warmer temperatures.
335 AM MDT Mon Oct 7 2019 Expect warm and dry weather conditions for today across northeast Montana, though a cold front will quickly approach and sweep through the region on Tuesday. Temperatures will fall Tuesday night with much of the area expected to see lows around or below freezing.
Until that time, conditions will be warmer than normal with dry and occasionally breezy conditions. Westerly flow aloft transitions to southwest flow aloft over the next couple of days as a trough carves out over the western U.
/issued 332 AM CDT Mon Oct 7 2019/ The cold front has pushed through the FA bringing in the coolest air so far this season.
Dew points in the low 50s are already flowing into our NW counties and afternoon highs will be some of the coolest since May.
High pressure will move in and skies will clear rapidly. Today Through Tuesday Night An upper trough continues over the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains with an upper ridge over the western U. The ridge moves east through the Plains tonight and Tuesday. Much cooler air arrives today and tonight. A couple of areas of showers and thunderstorms continue across the area this morning behind the cold front that has moved just south of the state line. High pressure will build into the area today and bring the showers and thunderstorms to an end this morning. Tonight will be clear and this will allow temperatures to fall to the mid 40s to the lower 50s.
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 7 2019 The cold front is currently located over the southeast portion of the CWA near Tupelo and will continue to move south throughout the day. A cold front is moving through the Mid-South this morning. Cooler air is working into the region behind the front. The cold front will push south of the Mid-South by 7-8 am. High will reach the lower 70s across the Delta where the sunshine will start to increase later this morning into this afternoon.
811 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2019 Look for a wet day across the region as a cold front slowly moves across the area. Upper level ridging will bring drier and slowly moderating temperatures for the rest of the week.
643 AM CDT Mon Oct 7 2019 A cold front extending from central LA southwestward into central TX will continue to progress south and east through the morning hours. The long awaited "first cold front of fall" is now on our doorstep extending roughly from just west of Shreveport southwest to San Antonio. CAA in the wake of the front is forecast to keep afternoon highs across central LA in the lower 80's. Much more seasonal temperatures expected on Tuesday with plenty of sunshine as dry air through much of the column and weak high pressure at the surface prevail.
1110 AM CDT Mon Oct 7 2019 Updated for expiration of the High Wind Warning. Have allowed the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains to expire as scheduled, with wind speeds expected to continue decreasing through the day. /issued 337 AM CDT Mon Oct 7 2019/ The cold front finally blew through the area last night though temps have been slow to fall this morning with MAF currently still above 60 degrees.
131 PM MDT Mon Oct 7 2019 Water vapor imagery and 500mb RAP analysis show the region under northwest flow on the backside of an exiting upper trough today. To the southwest, high pressure is centered over Baja California with ridging over the Desert Southwest. Winds turned to the south early this afternoon as a lee trough deepened along the Rockies. A strong upper trough digs into the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday and flow aloft of the region shifts to southwesterly.
245 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2019 Rain will taper off for most areas overnight as an upper level trough moves east of the region. Outside of lingering rain along the far southeast ridges Tuesday, dry weather and seasonable temperature are expected for the rest of the week. Dry air working in behind this trough will quickly end precipitation is it moves southeast. The degree of cooling tonight will be dictated by how quickly the upper level trough sweeps through the area, with the dry air behind it eroding the last of the clouds. A potent upper level low will dig across the western U.
Models are not very supportive of MVFR ceilings so raised ceilings a bit but still kept on the high end of MVFR. Wind shift and pre-frontal trough have pushed off the coast this morning but the actual cold front lags behind the pre-frontal trough. Cold front looks to be running from near Columbus to Conroe. It does look like areas along the coast will heat up into the low/mid 80s so made some adjustments to temperatures there. While we enjoy having cold fronts come through, depending upon when and how quickly the front comes through largely dictates how much of a headache the temperature forecast becomes.
Water vapor imagery highlights a broad upper- level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. Diffluent flow to the east of the trough streams to the northeast across the Florida Keys and Florida, rounding the anticyclone over the Western Caribbean and Cuba.
220 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2019 With last night's cold front all the way through Middle TN this afternoon, dew points have really fallen off. This is going to keep not only overnight lows a little warmer than they could be, but afternoon highs should also be lower on Tuesday.
Wind shift and pre-frontal trough have pushed off the coast this morning but the actual cold front lags behind the pre-frontal trough. Cold front looks to be running from near Columbus to Conroe. It does look like areas along the coast will heat up into the low/mid 80s so made some adjustments to temperatures there. While we enjoy having cold fronts come through, depending upon when and how quickly the front comes through largely dictates how much of a headache the temperature forecast becomes.
Warm southerly flow will be in place as the region remains between high pressure to the east and approaching low pressure from the west.
Surface and upper-level ridge to prevail through the short term period ending Tuesday Night allowing for mostly clear skies and temperatures ranging from highs in the upper 70s to around 80 and lows in the 50s.
A cold front is forecast to push southward towards the FL/GA border overnight before stalling. Slug of moisture over the Wrn Atlc and across Cntrl/Srn FL with rotate North across NE FL and the adjacent Coastal Waters around the Wrn Atlc High Pressure Ridge. Highs will range from the lower 80s along the coast to the middle 80s inland, fairly close to climo values.
1126 AM MDT Mon Oct 7 2019 The main weather story for the short term will be the zonal flow aloft ahead of a large Maritime Canadian trough developing over western British Columbia. Otherwise, temperatures will be quite pleasant with daytime highs in the 60s and 70s east and the upper 50s to low 60s across the higher terrain further west. Increasing cloud cover and strengthening winds will mean some warmer low temperatures for tonight across the area.
This will allow for a beautiful sunny autumn day with a light west- northwest breeze and highs in the low to mid 60s. Subtle warm air advection will develop tonight as the high drifts off to the east and winds shift to the south.
236 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2019 Overnight low dewpoints, clear skies, and light winds will set up favorable radiational cooling conditions, low temps will be even cooler than this morning. Guidance and model temps seem too low Thur based on scenario that front will be to the n with downslope winds ahead of front, we will continue trend of warmer temps.
Upper level ridging will bring drier and slowly moderating temperatures for the rest of the week. Central and western areas will see at least partial clearing and a milder afternoon with highs reaching the lower 60s in the valleys.
256 PM MDT Mon Oct 7 2019 Significant weather change coming up with a strong cold front sweeping across the region on Tuesday. Rain will follow the front and as temperatures cool to below freezing, will change over to snow during the overnight hours.
Lows tonight will be above normal and much "milder" ranging from the 40s for most (a few spots may be warmer). We could see colder air start to filter into our northwest late Tuesday night as the incoming cold front approaches.
144 PM MDT Mon Oct 7 2019 Water vapor imagery and 500mb RAP analysis show the region under northwest flow on the backside of an exiting upper trough today. To the southwest, high pressure is centered over Baja California with ridging over the Desert Southwest. Winds turned to the south early this afternoon as a lee trough deepened along the Rockies. A strong upper trough digs into the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday and flow aloft of the region shifts to southwesterly.
1054 AM CDT Mon Oct 7 2019 High pressure ridging into the midwest from Ontario will provide the region fall-like weather through mid-week.
Abundant cloud cover and light rain has kept temperatures well in check in this region and mainly in the lower to mid 70s. At the surface, high pressure centered over New England and New Brunswick will ridge down the Appalachians, setting up a weak wedge pattern from midweek through the end of the work week. Meanwhile, upper ridging over the Southeast will lead to continued above-normal temperatures. The next notable change will come over the weekend with the approach of a cold front.
Looking at current satellite a broad area of clouds associated with a cold front is sliding into our area from the northwest.
1201 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2019 High pressure ridging into the midwest from Ontario will provide the region fall-like weather through mid-week.
310 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2019 Cooler and drier air will continue to advect into the Mid-South this afternoon in the wake of the cold front that moved through the area overnight and early this morning.
Area radars show mostly scattered light rain showers across portions of the forecast area associated with a cold front that is currently aligned across the southern Appalachians. How much is still in question with the highest probability of rainfall across NE Tennessee/SW Virginia where the best combination of lift and moisture resides however isolated to scattered showers can be expected elsewhere. Temperatures tonight are forecast in the low to upper 50s. On Tuesday, given the expected cloud cover and possible precipitation, expect highs to range from the low/mid 60 across SW Virginia to the mid 70s in SE Tennessee. The trough axis will gradually slide eastward Tuesday night leaving southwest Virginia and the East Tennessee mountains with the best chances of rain.
154 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2019 A trough axis draped across the Central Bahamas and NW Cuba is propagating towards the Florida peninsula. As it does so, unsettled weather is occurring across Florida, aided in the fact that the trough axis is enhancing vertical ascent, and advecting deeper moisture from the tropics across the region. By tomorrow morning, this trough axis is expected to be off the east coast of Florida, and will continue moving away from the region.
1243 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2019 Forecast on track with temps already near or warmer than 60F and sunny skies prevailing. Low amplitude upper ridge over SASK will shift east today. Ridge axis shifts east of the area this evening. With the upper ridge, milder weather is forecast for today with highs in the lower 60s and Tue in the middle to upper 60s. Upper level trough now over the northern BC coast will dig into the Pacific Northwest by 00Z Wed. Cold front will begin to move out of Canada and into MT and northwest ND by Tue afternoon.
235 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2019 High pressure ridging into the midwest from Ontario will provide the region fall-like weather through mid-week.
310 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2019 Upper trof axis is currently pushing east across the area. High pressure takes firm control on Tuesday with Chamber-of-Commerce mid-October weather.
Big changes arrive tonight into Tuesday as a strong cold front plows through the Inland Northwest. Radar and Satellite indicate some showers are developing over the high terrain north ans east of the basin as an incoming short wave trough hustles deep moisture ahead of it into the forecast area with significant mid and high clouds over the rest of the region. The main weather issue besides these showers will be increasingly breezy and gusty winds across the basin late this afternoon with the peak winds expected tonight as the actual surface cold front passes through. The highlighted areas include the Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane Area, Coeur d'Alene Area, Lower Garfield County and Palouse. /SVH 18Z TAFS: Increasing winds will be the main aviation impact during this TAF period as a strong cold front passes through the region this evening.
331 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2019 As the front shifts southeast of the forecast area, we are looking at diminishing light rain and cooler/drier air continuing to advect into the forecast area.
Temperatures are in the upper 60s to the lower 70s under mostly sunny skies. Highs on Tuesday will warm into the lower to middle 70s. An upper level trough will move out of the northwestern U.
1110 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2019 A trough near the coast, along with a weak front slowly moving through the region late today and Tuesday, will bring a slight chance of showers.
203 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2019 Light winds and clear skies have dominated today though some surface gusts have already returned to central portions of the state as lee troughing develops under west-northwest flow. Still appears best warm-air advection will be aloft tonight into Tuesday so keeping highs in the lower to middle 70s with increased mixing not resulting in much warming.
1124 AM MDT Mon Oct 7 2019 Weak ridging is crossing the region at this time as over flow continues from the NW. Southwest flow will develop today, bringing warmer temperatures.
Cold Front and Cooler. This cold front has brought welcome relief, from the heat! Lows tonight will be around 5 degrees cooler than usual early October lows. Slow Warming then Another Cold Front.
Surface winds to become a little more e-se during the day tomorrow, resulting in slightly warmer temperatures. Southerly winds to increase for the middle of the week as a strong upper trough moves into the nw conus.
rux Previous Discussion: Expect warm and dry weather conditions for today across northeast Montana, though a cold front will quickly approach and sweep through the region on Tuesday. Temperatures will fall Tuesday night with much of the area expected to see lows around or below freezing.