Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
236 AM MDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Upper level low moving eastward from the coast into Washington and Oregon with flow aloft backing over western Montana and Idaho. Eastward approach of the WA/OR tonight has trended a bit slower as it splits with one piece of the low lifting into Canada and a second piece lingers longer over southwest Montana before filling during the Wednesday and moving eastward. Snow is possible tonight through Wednesday night over the high country with amounts approaching 6 to 8 inches on the Beartooth Highway. Recreationists in the high country will encounter raw conditions.
A persistent upper level ridge will remain anchored across the central CONUS through at least mid/late in the work week.
A mid level low cut-off from the jet stream will remain quasi-stationary over South Carolina as mid level ridging to its north and east blocks any movement. This upper low has induced a (non-tropical) low pressure at the surface off the SC coast. Circulation around this low will produce north to northeast breezes today over EC FL. Very light to calm winds tonight combined with the lower dewpoints will allow min temps to settle in the mid to upper 60s most areas.
low pressure moving into the PACNW with a cold front moving onshore the Washington and Oregon coasts. Upper low moves into western Wyoming Wednesday morning.
400 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020 As we remain sandwiched between a low pressure system off to our west and a high pressure system off to our east, warm and windy conditions remain across the area. As the low marches eastwards, the pressure gradient is expected to be at its strongest this afternoon and has thus prompted a wind advisory to be issued westward along a line from Brookings county to Charles Mix county.
CLL, CXO, UTS, and LBX have the highest chance for seeing the patchy fog. Tuesday, upper level ridge weakens slightly and the low level wind flow turns a little more southerly than today.
Windy conditions and above average temperatures will continue Tuesday night and Wednesday, as the overall upper level Omega blocking pattern and the tight surface pressure gradient remains in place. Warm temperatures aloft and continued WAA will keep Wednesday's highs near to a couple degrees warmer than Tuesday. Precipitation and storm chances will continue into the weekend, with another, deeper upper trough across the region.
A subtle weakness in the 500mb ridge over the area will allow for another day of enhanced cumulus clouds during the afternoon, along with a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly west of a Mason to Sweetwater line.
/issued 319 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020/ Short Term [Tonight through Tuesday] This afternoon's surface analysis indicates a broad area of high pressure located over the eastern third of the CONUS with the southwestern periphery extending into central Texas.
240 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Tranquil conditions are being found early this morning, as our area remains under the influence of persistent high pressure over the Great Lakes. The pattern looks to remain stagnant and continued dry for the region over the next few days, as a Rex block formed between Great Lakes ridging and a cutoff low in the southeast prohibits much eastward progression of a western CONUS trough. However, this blocking pattern does look to break down late week and over the weekend. This will allow for upper troughing and an attendant surface front to make inroads leading to a more active/unsettled period of weather. More splendid wx on tap for the area with Great Lakes ridging the dominant feature.
The latest water vapor animation shows troughiness over the western CONUS, a ridge over the south-central CONUS, and a a low/trough over the eastern CONUS. This upper pattern of southwest flow over the CWA will continue through Wednesday as the western CONUS trough slowly shifts east.
As expected, showers have diminished with the loss of heating beneath the upper level closed low. Moisture associated with the Carolina's upper low will favor abundant mid clouds with sct/bkn low vfr cu/stratocu this morning and through Tuesday. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 61 84 64 86 / 20 10 20 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 79 58 81 61 84 / 20 10 20 20 50 Oak Ridge, TN 79 58 81 60 85 / 10 10 20 10 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 72 55 74 57 79 / 50 20 40 30 70.
Strong daytime heating combined with this increase of moisture and relatively cooler 700mb temps aloft could result in a few weak bubbling updraft attempts.
A drier/cooler air mass has pushed west into some of the area.
This cirrus is in advance of a broad trough pushing into the West Coast which will aid in ramping up surface wind speeds tomorrow across much of the region.
Stronger winds are on the way for Tuesday as a trough of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest sags far enough south into the area. Yet another deep and cold low will drop into the mean trough position and move toward Washington State tonight, then eject through southern Idaho Tuesday and into Montana on Wednesday.
/issued 913 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020/ Quiescent weather conditions will prevail across the Mid-South overnight in the wake of a backdoor cold front. Temperatures will be similar to today's highs, mainly in the low to mid 80s. Fortunately, the lower dewpoints will keep heat indices closer to the actual temperature. /issued 344 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020/ GOES-16 satellite trends place an upper-level low pressure system over eastern North Carolina with an associated front stalled from northern Mississippi to central Arkansas. The GFS continues to be pessimistic with rainfall, showing the development of showers Wednesday as the low pressure system moves towards middle North Carolina. As the week progresses, a ridge over the Plains will expand eastward, as the aforementioned low moves toward the east coast. The ridge will become the dominant feature dictating the weather across the Mid-South.
Early this morning, a backdoor cold front was located from northwest Arkansas through south Central Arkansas/Northern Louisiana. Through the day today, the boundary will continue to drift west/southwest around the periphery of the elongated upper ridge (you know, the ridge I've been talking about forever).
The region will be situated between high pressure to the east and a low pressure system over eastern Montana/Wyoming this morning. The low level jet increases into the 50-55 knot range, but instability will be waning by this time and there will be a bit of a CAP in place. Cold front will be marching eastward across the CWA, with storm initiation expected between the Missouri and James rivers, possibly closer to the James. Behind the passing cold front, a break from the 90 degree heat of late and back to readings in the 70s and 80s for high temperatures.
1107 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Dry conditions and near normal temperatures can be expected into midweek with high pressure in control. Mainly high clouds will continue to spin across the region overnight on the periphery of the upper low, which will continue to drift south across the Tennessee Valley.
Today and Tomorrow: The cutoff low pressure system over the Carolinas should keep the upper level ridge over the center portion of the CONUS for the next couple of days.
and Wednesday Dry weather is expected across the western Great Lakes through at least the middle of the week as a high pressure system slowly drifts across the eastern Great Lakes region and New England. Southerly winds on the backside of the high will bring above normal temperatures during this period as temperatures slowly warm across the region. Highs today will generally be in the lower 80s away from the lakes, with upper 60s to lower 70s near Lake Michigan.
405 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 The Great Lakes are positioned beneath broad upper level ridging that will remain dominant through the remainder of this week before the western CONUS trough finally releases and slowly progresses eastward.
336 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Upper level ridge remains over the area this morning as it has for several days. A shift in the pattern will finally occur by the end of this week and especially into the weekend as an upper level trough moves across the northern plains and breaks down the ridge enough for a more active pattern to set up.
The highly advertised warmup is still on track to ensue tomorrow as the mid-level ridge builds. By Wednesday evening, the surface cold front associated with the aforementioned trough will have entered the eastern Dakotas.
215 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Upper level ridge axis bending across the great lakes today, and will be the main weather influence into Thu. At the sfc, high pressure will continue to hold across the new england states. GFS/EC remain in good agreement with slowly shoving the upper level ridge axis southeast for the later half of the week, working a 500 mb trough from southern Canada across the ridge. Some instability to play with, but deep layer shear holds west/northwest, in the cooler air. The trough and northwest flow look to take over for the start of the new work week. Quiet weather continues the next 24 hours as high pressure holds firm across the region.
350 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Today & tonight: Today: The backdoor cold front is drifting southwest through the region this morning. Water vapor imagery shows a strong reinforcing punch of dry air & isentropic subsidence on the western side of the upper low. Lows will fall below normal into the low-mid 60s.
Today Through Wednesday It's been a quiet weather day across the Natural State, with clear to partly cloudy skies and afternoon temperatures ranging from the lower to mid 80s to lower 90s. The synoptic setup won't change too much through Wednesday, with high pressure across Western Arkansas, and a nearly stationary H500 Low to our east. The cold front will bring slightly cooler and drier air to the state, helping to make conditions more pleasant on Tuesday. In fact, high temperatures tomorrow are forecast to be in the lower to mid 80s for much of the area, with only a few locations hitting the 90 degree mark. Likewise, overnight lows will be cooler, with much of the state staying in the upper 50s and mid 60s. Overall though, temperatures will still stay in the lower 90s or below for highs.
Also, an upper level low pressure will settle over the Southeast this week and should gradually weaken through the weekend. Cool, dry high pressure continues to build south into the area early this morning as low pressure meanders just offshore. Lows will drop into the lower 60s with mid 60s at the beaches.
Tonight's subjective H850 analysis shows a strong ridge of high pressure extending from the Gulf Coast north into Iowa than east over the remainder of the eastern CONUS. Though the ridge will be generally drifting east in the next 36 hours, this will only have a small impact on temperatures. Tonight and tomorrow will be similar to this morning and today with lows in the lower 60s east to 70 west and highs tomorrow once again in the mid to upper 80s east to the lower 90s west.
A few scattered showers affected the plateau this afternoon on the western peripheral of the upper low centered over the Carolinas. Upper low located over SC this morning.
300 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 The recent stretch of relatively cool, dry and comfortable weather conditions in central Pennsylvania will soon come to an end with a warmer and more humid trend expected into Father's Day weekend.
High pressure east of the area continues to keep drier air across the area this afternoon. This high pressure and interface between the drier lake enhanced airmass and the continental moist airmass will continue to drive the weather through the short term. Temperatures An upper-level ridge over the Central U.
114 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Persistent high pressure over the Great Lakes will provide a long stretch of dry weather with temperatures warming steadily through the week. A rex block will remain in place today and tonight, with a closed low parked over the Carolinas and a strong ridge to the west and north from the upper Mississippi Valley to New England. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 50s, with some upper 40s still found in the cooler Southern Tier valleys and North Country. High pressure remaining in place though becoming more centered east of the area, allowing for warmer and slightly more humid air to move in.
The Great Lakes are currently positioned beneath a mid-level ridge flanked by deep troughing across the western US and a cut-off low pressure system over the southeast. Today, highs should be some 5-8 degrees warmer than yesterday and in the mid 80s.
For most of this week, forecast confidence is fairly low as medium range guidance and ensemble members vary with the amplitude of the persistent and unusual active southern stream trough aligned over the Gulf of Mexico to the Sunshine State, and southward to the island of Cuba. In addition, medium range guidance varies on when the strong, deep cold core cut-off low pressure system in the extreme Southeast United States, will lift northeastward and out into the western Atlantic Ocean.
A large closed upper cyclone continues to dominate the pattern across the southeast CONUS this morning, generally centered over the Midlands of SC, while full latitude ridging prevails westward atop the Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes region. At the surface, high pressure remains over the northeast CONUS, stretching southward into the central/southern Appalachians and OH/TN Valley regions, while low pressure remains offshore of the SC/GA coastline beneath the more favorable southeast quadrant of the upper low. Moving through the day, am expecting increased coverage of showers as the upper low slowly pivots northwest, wrapping additional Atl moisture across the Southern Appalachians. That said, the drier/cooler nly surface flow (thanks to the aforementioned northeast ridge) should keep temperatures lower across the vast majority of the region, thereby limiting lapse rates and thus instability.
With the trough located far to our west and the closed low positioned over the southeast U.
High temperatures will remain near normals, in the lower/mid 90s today and tomorrow (and most likely for much of the coming week). With the upper low meandering/lingering over the eastern U. and the upper ridge trying to build in from the west across SE TX for the rest of the week, the forecast looks to be a fairly quiet one. This pattern is progged to change by this weekend as the upper low finally weakens/moves off to the NE. 41 High pressure sagging down across the Gulf Coastal states with upper low spinning away over South Carolina.
330 AM MDT Tue Jun 16 2020 An upper low will rotate from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies today, before lifting into Saskatchewan on Wednesday. The low will stall over the Canadian prairies through the end of the week due to a blocking low over the eastern CONUS. Moisture in the southerly flow ahead of the low track will be somewhat cut off by the system to the east, but will modest boundary layer moisture already in place along with strong daytime heating and convergence along the boundary, could see some strong convection develop late in the afternoon near the North Dakota and Canadian borders. As the upper low settles over Saskatchewan, cooler air will spread across eastern Montana.
An area of low pressure south of the Carolinas this morning was continuing to pump in very dry air to the area, with precipitable water values on the 12Z sounding just over 1 inch. Below normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected to prevail today, with highs in the low 80s across southeast Georgia and coastal northeast Florida, and generally the mid 80s elsewhere, except upper 80s across Marion County. Upper low continues over the Carolinas and northern GA. High temperatures Today will be in the lower 80s across SE GA, mid 80s across NE FL except lower 80s immediate coast. Mostly clear skies, light winds, and 60s dew points will support low temperatures Tonight in the lower to mid 60s, except upper 60s immediate coast.
1040 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Persistent high pressure over the Great Lakes will provide a long stretch of dry weather with temperatures warming steadily through the week. A rex block will remain in place through tonight, with a closed low parked over the Carolinas and a strong ridge to the west and north from the upper Mississippi Valley to New England. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 50s, with some upper 40s still found in the cooler Southern Tier valleys and North Country.
330 AM MDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Upper trough/low is moving into the Pac NW, with southwest flow increasing over the CWA. Deep southerly low level flow is continuing to advect in warmer air this morning. As a result, warmer temps are expected today, which will be enhanced by a dryline pushing in from the SW through the day. A cold front will move in from the northwest late this afternoon and through the evening hours. The upper low will propagate to the northeast on Wednesday, with the cold front stalled across south central SD. Cooler temperatures are expected behind the front. A strong wave will round the bottom of the upper low, crossing the CWA Wednesday night.
Very light to calm winds tonight combined with the lower dewpoints will allow min temps to settle in the mid to upper 60s most areas.
The persistent upper low will continue to dig south today, keeping northerly flow aloft and resulting in below normal temperatures despite abundant sunshine today. Did mention a slight chance for afternoon thunderstorms, mainly east of I-65 where forcing for ascent is greatest in proximity to the upper low.
540 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Persistence forecast in play today as ridge of high pressure brings continued VFR conditions to the terminals. * None The Great Lakes are positioned beneath broad upper level ridging that will remain dominant through the remainder of this week before the western CONUS trough finally releases and slowly progresses eastward.
A deep low pressure system will pass from the Pacific NW into the northern Rockies over the next couple of days. Arizona will be on the dry southern end of this low, with pressure gradients increasing enough to produce gusty southwest winds.
322 AM MDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Overnight WV imagery depicted an elongated upper ridge axis from the western Great Lakes through the central Great Plains into the southern Rockies. A upper low was approaching the WA coast. The upper low continues its east-southeast trek across the Pacific Northwest today, and into ID tonight. A low level thermal ridge with temperatures in the mid to upper teens Celsius will center over the high plains this afternoon. The upper low over northwest WY Wednesday morning moves northeast MT late in the day, with a trough axis trailing south into UT. Isolated showers will be possible over western Carbon County Wednesday morning, with widely scattered thunderstorms accompanying a southward-moving cold front Wednesday evening.
Today, the trough is sharpening once again immediately upstream through the Great Basin, so we will see a stronger southwesterly and westerly flow begin to reassert itself today.
426 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020 High pressure at sfc extends from the eastern great lakes south down into deep south Texas. when combined with daytime heating and a weakness aloft at the base of the ridge this should be enough to give us a chance for some showers and thunderstorms in southeast Texas with isolated showers and thunderstorms for southern Louisiana. Heat indices will be the real issue today as they are expected to climb back into the low to mid 90s.
It will still be much cooler than average into mid-week. The second half of the week will feature mountain showers and become progressively warmer. Tomorrow, light and lingering showers will remain mostly in the higher elevations of Idaho Panhandle and far northeastern Washington.
646 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Persistent high pressure over the Great Lakes will provide a long stretch of dry weather with temperatures warming steadily through the week. A rex block will remain in place today and tonight, with a closed low parked over the Carolinas and a strong ridge to the west and north from the upper Mississippi Valley to New England. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 50s, with some upper 40s still found in the cooler Southern Tier valleys and North Country.
As for highs today, did trend to the warmer guidance with 850 temps around 24 to 26 degrees celsius and a good southeast flow. Also bumped up lows for tonight with the gusty winds, temperatures should remain on the warmer side. Looking at 850 temps through the evening, it is clear that the GFS tries to push the cold front and cooler air behind it through western and north central Nebraska much faster than the Euro and Canadian solutions.
Brownsville radar currently indicates some streamer activity across the lower Texas Gulf waters.
09Z Surface analysis places a back door cold front from Western Missouri and Arkansas south into Louisiana and into the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, an upper level low is located over the Mid-Atlantic states. High pressure behind the cold front is resulting in clear to mostly clear skies, and temperatures as of 4 AM CDT in the middle 50s to lower 60s across most locations. Otherwise, rain free conditions are expected to persist across the Mid-South today with highs this afternoon in the lower to middle 80s with minimum relative humidity values ranging between 35 to 40 percent and producing comfortable conditions for mid-June.
A cold front is moving through the area from northeast to southwest. /DC/ Today & tonight: Today: The backdoor cold front is drifting southwest through the region this morning. Water vapor imagery shows a strong reinforcing punch of dry air & isentropic subsidence on the western side of the upper low. Lows will fall below normal into the low-mid 60s.
647 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 The recent stretch of relatively cool, dry and comfortable weather conditions in central Pennsylvania will soon come to an end with a warmer and more humid trend expected into Father's Day weekend.
324 AM MDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Overnight WV imagery depicted an elongated upper ridge axis from the western Great Lakes through the central Great Plains into the southern Rockies. A upper low was approaching the WA coast. The upper low continues its east-southeast trek across the Pacific Northwest today, and into ID tonight. A low level thermal ridge with temperatures in the mid to upper teens Celsius will center over the high plains this afternoon. The upper low over northwest WY Wednesday morning moves northeast MT late in the day, with a trough axis trailing south into UT. Isolated showers will be possible over western Carbon County Wednesday morning, with widely scattered thunderstorms accompanying a southward-moving cold front Wednesday evening.
525 AM MDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Upper trough/low is moving into the Pac NW, with southwest flow increasing over the CWA. Deep southerly low level flow is continuing to advect in warmer air this morning. As a result, warmer temps are expected today, which will be enhanced by a dryline pushing in from the SW through the day. A cold front will move in from the northwest late this afternoon and through the evening hours. The upper low will propagate to the northeast on Wednesday, with the cold front stalled across south central SD. Cooler temperatures are expected behind the front. A strong wave will round the bottom of the upper low, crossing the CWA Wednesday night.
350 AM MDT Tue Jun 16 2020 An upper level trough will begin moving eastward later today, from the nwrn US, with increasing southwest flow aloft. At the sfc, a lee trough will be over ern CO.