Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
127 AM MST Thu Nov 19 2020 20 UTC water vapor imagery/RAP analysis indicated broad ridging across much of the northern plains with trough moving into the west coast. Cooler air will move into the area tomorrow behind a weak cold front. Winds do not look to be much of an issue and while temperatures will be nearly 10 degrees cooler, it will remain will above normal.
The strong winds will also bring unseasonably warm temperatures into the lower and middle 60s today.
/issued 309 PM CST Wed Nov 18 2020/ Continental high pressure remains firmly planted over the Midwest States and extending across the entire northern gulf. This will cause the center of the high pressure area to shunt into the Atlantic with low level air mass moderation taking place across the Gulf States.
Not as concerned about Fire Wx as in previous days given low winds and the turn to NE/E surface flow advecting low level moisture over the area, but continued with the lower MAV/MET/CONSall blend for Td as previously done. Temps forecast to slowly rise through the period with high temps reaching the low to mid 60s and lows in the low to mid 40s.
/issued 705 PM EST Wed Nov 18 2020/ Latest RAP model has mid/upper ridging over the eastern US through Thu. Robust high pressure easing eastward across the Mid-Atlantic will keep a tight gradient across the waters overnight and into early Thu morning.
Currently, strong southerly flow persists ahead of approaching cold front with overnight lows holding stubbornly in the 50s in many areas. The thermal ridge is expected to pass across Iowa today pushing highs well into the 60s and even lower 70s given a favorable setup with southwest surface winds.
High pressure aloft will bring drier conditions to the area over the weekend.
1256 AM EST Thu Nov 19 2020 High pressure to our west will slide closer and then sag southeast into the Carolinas on Thursday.
A few locations across south-central Wisconsin may see temperature warm a few degrees around and after midnight as the south winds hold on, but also advect in some warmer air currently lifting across Iowa. Ritzman (Issued 255 PM CST Wed Nov 18 2020) Tonight through Thursday night: Gusty winds will continue overnight and into tomorrow as a low pressure system moves to our north and east. Otherwise, expect a mix of sun and clouds tomorrow with highs in the low 60s, owing to the mixing of warm 925mb temperatures down from aloft.
Ahead of the front, southerly winds will continue to feed in warmer air, with today being the warmest day of the week and likely the last 60+ degree F day of the year. Either way, it will be nice to have a day with temperatures 10-20 degrees above their normal values in the middle of November! The cold front moves through later today shifting winds from southerly to westerly.
/DL/ A high pressure ridge is draped across the southeast this evening, keeping the overnight weather quiet and chilly. Prior discussion below: The region will remain under ridging aloft through the short term. /28/ Tomorrow night through Wednesday: The forecast period starts off tomorrow night with surface ridging across the Southeast States beneath weak quasi-zonal flow aloft. Temperatures will gradually moderate with afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s.
1245 AM EST Thu Nov 19 2020 High pressure to our west will slide closer and then sag southeast into the Carolinas on Thursday.
235 AM CST Thu Nov 19 2020 High pressure will remain in control of our forecast over the next few days with nothing but sunny and dry conditions expected.
Low clouds should return tonight with the low level jet. As the surface pressure gradient weakens tonight, lighter winds should allow the morning lows to fall into the lower 50s.
Wisconsin remained in between high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes and low pressure and an associated cold front approaching from the northern Plains. The previously-mentioned cold front will move into Wisconsin on Thursday, and should bisect the state from northeast to southwest by evening.
Skies have cleared nearly everywhere with lows Thursday morning expected to be much cooler than what they were this morning. setting the stage for a cooler but still above normal day on Thursday.
1048 PM CST Wed Nov 18 2020 A Pacific cold front moving through WY this afternoon will move through wrn and ncntl Nebraska overnight tonight.
1044 PM CST Wed Nov 18 2020 Strong ridging across the Central US and southerly mid-level flow from the Gulf of Mexico has resulted in another stretch of warm days across our region.
1117 PM EST Wed Nov 18 2020 High pressure to our west will slide closer and then sag southeast into the Carolinas on Thursday.
High pressure is centered along the mid Atlantic coast this morning low pressure is in the central plains. An upper ridge extends from northern Mexico and across the northwest gulf coast.
425 AM EST Thu Nov 19 2020 High pressure slides east today with warm air advection over the region. This will bring a warm and dry stretch to the area until a cold front brings showers back by the end of the weekend. High pressure has pushed to our east this morning with warm southwest flow setting up over the region. Temperatures have already started warming through the early morning hours and today's highs will be 20 to 25 degrees warmer than what we saw yesterday, with a few spots climbing into the low 50s. Dry air near the surface will keep any precipitation associated with the cold front from reaching the ground though it will still increase the cloud cover, lessening radiational cooling and keeping overnight lows above freezing.
The High Wind Warning for the South Laramie Range remains in effect until 5 AM MST today. One area of focus today will be across Carbon & Albany counties, as the RRQ of a 120 to 130 knot H25 jet interacts with the 700 mb cold front. Temperatures above freezing should also limit the duration of any road impacts from snow today. Quiet weather is expected for Friday as the trough axis shifts eastward, bringing in a considerably cooler & drier air mass.
/issued 343 AM CST Thu Nov 19 2020/ High pressure has shifted east this morning and is now located over the Appalachians. The southerly winds will also bring warmer temperatures with highs expected to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Look for lows in the lower to mid 30s. 850 mb temperatures continue to decrease on Friday, and with surface ridging building into the region there will be partly cloudy skies and highs in the 40s to lower 50s.
Today's highs will be similar/slightly higher than yesterday, with lows tonight similarly trending slightly upward as the airmass gradually modifies on the western periphery of the ridge. A slow increase in low level moisture around the perimeter of the ridge will offer some relief in south/west portions of the area. /DL/ Friday through Thanksgiving Day: A dry weather pattern typical of the cool season La Nina state will persist over the ArkLaMiss region for much of the long range as the subtropical ridge remains anchored over the Gulf of Mexico.
A slightly cooler air mass will be in place today with the passing cold front. Although we will have some mixing today and unlike yesterday we won't have a layer of clouds across the area, the cooler air mass will keep temperatures cooler than yesterday. 850 temps will be around 10 degrees cooler with temperatures around 12 to 13 degrees celsius. That being said although it will be cooler today than yesterday, temperatures still remain well above normal by around 20 to 25 degrees, but no record breaking highs are expected. For Friday much cooler temperatures are expected as the front will have moved through the entire forecast area southward drawing in colder air, 850 temps only around 3 to 5 degrees.
The upper level pattern will start to become more zonal with a stationary boundary forming over our area on the tail end of a cold front Friday.
Another quiet day is in store across South Texas as high pressure remains in control. Highs today will be a couple of degrees warmer than we saw yesterday as onshore flow continues. We will stick with our warming trend on Friday with highs trending a degree or two warmer. Also, went ahead and extended the high risk of rip currents through early Friday morning as increased swells continue to influence our coastline.
240 AM MST Thu Nov 19 2020 An upper level trof will be moving across the northern Rockies today with an associated 120kt jet core moving across Wyoming. Currently, cloudiness across northwest Colorado is of the mid level variety but some showers with the main trof over further west and North over Utah and Idaho. There will be continued gradual cooling with this system through the low levels as 700mb temperatures drop to around +2c by later today. A weak cold front will slide southward over the plains tonight with shallow upslope flow and some mid/high level cloudiness developing later tonight.
343 AM CST Thu Nov 19 2020 High pressure has shifted east this morning and is now located over the Appalachians. The southerly winds will also bring warmer temperatures with highs expected to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Dry weather continues as the ern CONUS is under the influence of a broad ridge with zonal flow over the Upr OH Valley Region. Filtered insolation, with cirrus streaming across the nrn periphery of the ridge, along with warm advection will drive temperature about 10 degrees above the calculated normals today.
Feeling more like fall across the peninsula this morning with temperatures ranging from the upper 40s north to the low 60s south. Mid to upper level high pressure ridge spreading across the Eastern U.
The primary feature of concern is an incoming upper trough and associated short waves this afternoon through tonight. Canadian high pressure builds in on Friday, quieting the breezy conditions that will occur tonight. Cold air advects in with the high on Friday, as well, so we could see temps fall through the afternoon depending on timing. Temperatures still look to run slightly above average for the next several days, with only minor intrusions of cooler air into the region.
The one exception may be northern locations where clouds and winds may keep temps slightly warmer. Quasi-zonal to southwest flow will stay in place tomorrow, but the northern waves will push cooler air into the region.
Went on the higher end of guidance for temperatures today with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
A weak cold front will sag across central and southern Utah today. High pressure aloft will bring drier conditions to the area for the upcoming weekend.
809 AM EST Thu Nov 19 2020 High pressure slides east today with warm air advection over the region. This will bring a warm and dry stretch to the area until a cold front brings showers back by the end of the weekend. High pressure has pushed to our east this morning with warm southwest flow setting up over the region. Temperatures have already started warming through the early morning hours and today's highs will be 20 to 25 degrees warmer than what we saw yesterday, with a few spots climbing into the low 50s. Dry air near the surface will keep any precipitation associated with the cold front from reaching the ground though it will still increase the cloud cover, lessening radiational cooling and keeping overnight lows above freezing.
with the stronger winds expected across the higher terrain of the Ozarks over NRN/NWRN portions of AR.
Low temps this morning were in the low to mid 50's for most of the region under partly cloudy skies. Temperatures have already warmed up nicely into the low to mid 60's and will continue to warm up topping out in the mid to upper 70's, which is right around average for the middle of November. Strong high pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast ridges southwest over Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico producing gusty east-northeast winds around 20-25 knots with higher gusts.
A strong high pressure system in the SE US continues to provide a tight pressure gradient over the local area, causing breezy to windy conditions across the ECFL, especially along the coast. The strong onshore flow through will increase the low level moisture leading to onshore moving marine stratocu that will produce partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies today. Max temps today will rise to mid 70s with overnight lows in the lower 60s along the interior and upper 60s to lower 70s along the coast.
410 AM MST Thu Nov 19 2020 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over central SD, with a relatively weak cold front moving through southern portions of the area early this morning. Another cold front hangs to the north of the region. Cooler air behind the passing front will allow highs to range from near 50 across northeast WY and the higher Black Hills to the 60s over much of the southwest and south central SD plains. Cooler air will continue to slide south across the region into Friday, with highs mostly in the 40s to around 50 and some 30s over the higher Black Hills.
The system will bring a cold front through eastern Montana this morning with enough moisture for precipitation. With warm air aloft and on the ridges (above freezing) and low level inversions in the valleys (below freezing) ahead of this front, the precip will be a mix of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Meanwhile, there will be cooling aloft this morning which will turn and lingering precip behind the cold front into mainly light snow. Will maintain the Winter Weather Advisory in the north this morning with the possibility of sleet and freezing rain mixed in with areas of dense fog. Somewhat unstable airmass is expected behind the cold front this afternoon which could produce an isolated rain shower in the southeast this afternoon.
Temperatures are running warmer this morning than the past few mornings as low level winds have become easterly. Most observing stations are well above freezing, with a few mid 30s across the northeast counties. Will remove freezing temperature wording in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. A relatively dry low level ridge will hold over Alabama through Friday.
227 AM PST Thu Nov 19 2020 Winds will continue to be breezy this morning along the Sierra ridges, decreasing in intensity throughout the day. Still a bit breezy for some of our wind prone areas (including the Sierra ridges) this morning as our storm system from earlier this week finally makes its way out of the region towards the east.
300 AM MST Thu Nov 19 2020 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over central SD, with a relatively weak cold front moving through southern portions of the area early this morning. Another cold front hangs to the north of the region. Cooler air behind the passing front will allow highs to range from near 50 across northeast WY and the higher Black Hills to the 60s over much of the southwest and south central SD plains. Cooler air will continue to slide south across the region into Friday, with highs mostly in the 40s to around 50 and some 30s over the higher Black Hills.
Temperatures may cool a few degrees across portions of the area on Friday as a weak cold front moves closer.
Snow showers will continue this morning behind a departing cold front. Northwesterly flow aloft then takes over as a low-amplitude ridge builds to our west.
Mid-level ridging holding aloft and a south to southeasterly flow at the surface with strong high pressure centered well to the east across the Mid-Atlantic will continue to promote temperatures and dew points that are above the norm for mid to late November. The area fog along with the low cloud deck should generally mix out by around the 9 to 10 am hour each morning.
Today: Low pressure will slide into northern Ontario by this afternoon as a cold front passes into central Wisconsin. Otherwise, winds will continue to gusty ahead of the cold front, but to a lesser extent as the core of strong winds aloft shift off to the east. Tonight: The aforementioned low pressure system will become centered over James Bay this evening as the cold front shifts through eastern WI and into Lake Michigan. There may be just enough moisture and instability in the lower levels of the atmosphere to touch off a few sprinkles or flurries in those area. Otherwise, temperatures will be noticeably cooler than Thursday with highs reaching into the 30s across central/north-central WI, while the rest of the area sees highs in the mid to upper 40s.
Latest WPC ensemble guidance for freezing rain has over 90% probability now for 0. Lows will range from around 10 north to the low 20s south. Zonal flow will be in place early into the weekend before another trough approaches the Northern Plains.
323 AM CST Thu Nov 19 2020 (Issued 323 AM CST Thu Nov 19 2020) Today and Tonight: Gusty wind are expected to persist through the morning hours as the low level jet lifts across the region. The low pressure system in Ontario will continue to move northeast through the morning, keeping the tight pressure gradient over the Great Lakes Region. As the low pressure system exits this afternoon and the LLJ moves southeast out of the state, winds will begin to tamper off. The warm temperatures are expected to continue today with highs in the low 60s.
High pressure will remain in control of our forecast over the next few days with nothing but sunny and dry conditions expected.
228 AM MST Thu Nov 19 2020 Satellite imagery shows a broad trof over the Pacific northwest and northern Rockies, with a strong jet extending from northern CA to southern WY. There is an area of PV moving into central MT, and a surface cold front has just recently pushed thru Harlowton and Livingston. Temps today will be post-frontal and thus cooler with highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s. JKL Mainly dry weather looks to persist over the weekend as high pressure builds over the region.
229 AM MST Thu Nov 19 2020 Satellite imagery shows a broad trof over the Pacific northwest and northern Rockies, with a strong jet extending from northern CA to southern WY. There is an area of PV moving into central MT, and a surface cold front has just recently pushed thru Harlowton and Livingston. Temps today will be post-frontal and thus cooler with highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s. JKL Mainly dry weather looks to persist over the weekend as high pressure builds over the region.
600 AM EST Thu Nov 19 2020 Current surface analysis depicts a strong 1038 mb dome of high pressure centered near the North Carolina-Virginia border. With temperatures in the low 70s and dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, the radar is void of any precipitation echoes across both the island chain and the entire Florida Keys nearshore and offshore coastal waters. The main story in the short term will continue to be the strong pressure gradient between the aforementioned high pressure and a dying frontal boundary south of the Straits of Florida.
Otherwise, radar showed area of precipitation over eastern Montana approaching ND with Glasgow receiving a brief period of freezing rain per the NWS office there. Latest WPC ensemble guidance for freezing rain has over 90% probability now for 0. Lows will range from around 10 north to the low 20s south. Zonal flow will be in place early into the weekend before another trough approaches the Northern Plains.
A cold front will push slowly southward across south central/southeast Kansas during the day on Friday with warmest daytime highs over southern Kansas. Low level isentropic lift will begin to saturate the low levels for late Friday afternoon into the evening hours over southeast Kansas.
After a cool start, temperatures are warming quickly throughout the area and already up into the 50s, and well on their way to the low 60s on the Plateau and mid to upper 60s elsewhere. Meanwhile, a cold front is positioned across the upper midwest.
218 PM CST Thu Nov 19 2020 High pressure will remain in control of our forecast over the next few days with sunny and dry conditions are expected.
944 AM CST Thu Nov 19 2020 High pressure as expected has shifted a little to the east and is now centered over the Mid-Atlantic states. High pressure is centered along the mid Atlantic coast this morning low pressure is in the central plains. An upper ridge extends from northern Mexico and across the northwest gulf coast.
Carrothers Satellite imagery shows a broad trof over the Pacific northwest and northern Rockies, with a strong jet extending from northern CA to southern WY. There is an area of PV moving into central MT, and a surface cold front has just recently pushed thru Harlowton and Livingston. Temps today will be post-frontal and thus cooler with highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s. JKL Mainly dry weather looks to persist over the weekend as high pressure builds over the region.
Combined with winds still gusting between 20 and 30 mph, elevated fire danger conditions continue throughout the area - in particular across our northwest quadrant where winds are strongest and RH the lowest.
Increased rain chance and cooler temperature can be expected for the start of the new week. Dry weather continues as the ern CONUS is under the influence of a broad ridge with zonal flow over the Upr OH Valley Region. Filtered insolation, with cirrus streaming across the nrn periphery of the ridge, along with warm advection will drive temperature about 10 degrees above the calculated normals this afternoon.
Most of the reports in Montana had freezing rain and some snow, although early reports on the North Dakota site are indicating a mix of sleet also falling. Otherwise, radar showed area of precipitation over eastern Montana approaching ND with Glasgow receiving a brief period of freezing rain per the NWS office there. Latest WPC ensemble guidance for freezing rain has over 90% probability now for 0. Lows will range from around 10 north to the low 20s south. Zonal flow will be in place early into the weekend before another trough approaches the Northern Plains.
150 PM MST Thu Nov 19 2020 A backdoor cold front and snowpack made it hard for many locations along and north of Highway 2 today to mix out. Low clouds also helped to keep these locations close to the freezing mark while areas to the south reached the 40s to near 50.
This is bringing in warmer, and slightly more moist air. These more southerly winds are also brining in warmer air and temperatures should creep into the 60's for most of the Valley this afternoon. A cold front will sag south toward the area Friday night, but is expected to stall near our northern border before retreating as a warm front.
The passage of a sfc trof along with a rather diffuse cold front this morning has turned our winds northerly for today with speeds generally less than 15 mph. Cooler, more seasonable weather is on its way back after today. Those two trofs and their associated precip chances is what I'd like to focus the rest of this discussion on.
220 PM CST Thu Nov 19 2020 Temperatures have reached the low 80's across our region with some daily high temperature records possible. A relatively weak and dry cold front will move through the southern Texas Panhandle around sunrise tomorrow morning, reaching the I20 corridor by early afternoon.
228 PM CST Thu Nov 19 2020 A weak cold front was positioned along the Interstate 35 corridor at 20Z with a slight decrease in temperature behind it. Further northwest, a secondary cold front was seen across northern MN extending to near the ND/SD border. Overall, Friday will be cooler as 925mb temperatures drop about 10C from today. The cold front will bring a colder air mass into the region as a longwave trough develops over the upper Midwest.
No rain is expected today and, given the plentiful sunshine and slowly increasing moisture across the region, temperatures will continue to moderate with highs today in the lower to mid 70s across the southwest to the upper 60s in the northeast. Today's highs will be similar/slightly higher than yesterday, with lows tonight similarly trending slightly upward as the airmass gradually modifies on the western periphery of the ridge. A slow increase in low level moisture around the perimeter of the ridge will offer some relief in south/west portions of the area. /DL/ Friday through Thanksgiving Day: A dry weather pattern typical of the cool season La Nina state will persist over the ArkLaMiss region for much of the long range as the subtropical ridge remains anchored over the Gulf of Mexico.