Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures rise above freezing in most areas, with temperatures warming into the lower 50s over central SD.
Otherwise, winds will remain very gusty through the night, with temperatures falling into the low to mid teens by daybreak. A cold front is sweeping across the region at this hour, with northwest winds expected to increase considerably this evening, and persist through the overnight hours. Fortunately, this will be under a narrow ridge axis, so winds will be light to calm.
940 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 High pressure over southeast Canada moves east and offshore tonight. Low pressure moving through the Great Lakes will pass north of the area on Tuesday and drag a cold front through the region by Tuesday evening.
A cold front will cross the area early Tuesday and north winds will increase in the wake of the front. At the surface, west to southwest winds remain light with temperatures in the low/mid 70s. With dewpoints in the low 30s, relative humidity levels are quite low from the upper teens to upper 20 percent. Tonight a cold front located over the Southern Plains at 21Z should push through the area after midnight and off the coast by 12-13Z Tuesday. Overall the front will be relatively unnoticed with winds turning northerly with re-enforcing cooler/drier air.
Expect any remaining snow to depart and freezing drizzle will end by evening. Temperatures on Tuesday are expected to top out about 5 degrees warmer than tonight's lows. Tuesday Night Through Monday High amplitude flow with an upper ridge over the western Conus and the deep cold trough over the eastern states will keep the forecast area in the cold northwest flow regime for much of the week.
A weak front will bring a chance for some very light rain, increased clouds, and cooler temperatures today.
143 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017 High pressure will build into the region through the end of the week. This will provide for mainly dry conditions and cooler temperatures through the weekend. An upper level trough will cross the region Thursday afternoon, increasing the chances for a spotty shower or two in central Ohio. Readings Thursday night will drop down to the 50-55 degree range with a few cooler locations dipping into the upper 40s.
This feature will create gusty winds over Fallon and Carter Counties, but RH's will be in the lower to mid 20s. The low-level jet will move into the Dakotas by 12Z Friday. Expect mainly dry and warm forecast as ridging builds in over the region.
Generally isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected over the high terrain for Friday and over the weekend. A low pressure system approaching from the west has provided enough upward motion/cooling aloft in combination with monsoon moisture to produce quite a bit of shower and thunderstorm activity overnight across northern Arizona. Activity generally scattered over the higher terrain and more isolated across the valleys. The low weakens as high pressure builds over the area encompassing Arizona, Nevada and Utah.
As the upper trof departs early this morning, clearing will progress from north to south. Canadian high pressure will settle into the region today, and bring sunny skies.
Some mid level/sprinkles to the NW running into a ridge and a very dry airmass per the 00Z ILX sounding.
Also, overnight, an area of low pressure dropping south out of Canada may drag enough mid-level forcing/lift into far northeast South Dakota/west central MN to promote a few showers or weak thunderstorms there. Timing being what it is (night-time occurrence), not really expecting much more than for the far eastern edge of the cwa to be on the western edge of any precipitation developing/moving through the region tonight in association with this area of low pressure (currently over southern Manitoba).
343 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017 A cool and dry airmass was in place under Canadian high pressure reaching from WI to MO. KDVN showed a few very weak showers, likely just sprinkles reaching into east central and southwest IA, rapidly weakening as they moved away from the upper level support and into the drier air under the low level ridge. Given the cool start and less sunshine in a similar airmass, today should be cooler in most areas than the past couple days and have held highs to the lower 70s north, and mid to upper 70s from the central to the far south.
However, abundant high clouds work to limit radiational cooling and the formation of the lower ceiling. /issued 222 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017/ Today is expected to be a relatively down day for convective activity compared to the past and future several days despite height falls from a weakening upper level ridge to the west. the upper ridge to the west will begin to amplify again on Friday which may extend nighttime convection chances within north- northwest flow aloft.
Main focus in the short term forecast is the approaching low pressure trough and scattered rain showers and thunderstorms set to impact NE Montana over the next day or two. As a small scale short wave trough over Yellowstone National Park becomes absorbed into the main upper low from the Canadian Rockies, a lingering short wave extension of the ridge of high pressure looks to keep the low's impact at bay a bit. At least currently in the models, the strength of the approaching trough seems to be weakened when compared to previous model runs. Upper trof pushes into central Canada with the main low pressure lifting toward the Arctic Friday night.
434 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017 An upper level trough of low pressure over eastern Canada and the Northeast will bring cooler conditions to the region today and Friday. High pressure builds in for the weekend and a slow warming trend will take place as more sunshine develops across the area. Upper level trough of low pressure will be over the region today with low level cold air advection taking place. Upper trough over eastern Canada moves east and looks to provide sufficient dynamic support over northeast Vermont for a few showers in the afternoon.
1120 PM MDT Wed Aug 23 2017 Current surface analysis shows frontal boundary stretching from central MT through eastern WY to weak low pressure over far southeast WY. Upper level analysis shows negatively tilted ridge centered over the northern Rockies, with northwest flow continuing across the Northern Plains. Will see southeasterly winds increase on Thursday, becoming breezy across the SD plains, as low pressure forms along the boundary over eastern MT.
This wave will also bring in more cooler air resulting in high temps only in the 60s to around 70 degrees today. High pressure coming down from Canada then builds in behind the departing trough as heights begin to build across the region. Lift along and ahead of this boundary and the cooler air left behind will create a favorable environment for waterspouts through this evening. High pressure will then settle overhead Friday and further inhibit cloud development. Wind and wave conditions will remain favorable through the weekend as the high pressure system drifts slowly across the Great Lakes.
410 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017 A frontal boundary with weak waves of low pressure moving along it, will push farther southeast of the area today into Friday.
Today will be a bit warmer as slightly warmer 850mb air works in concert with abundant sunshine and a drier air mass. Models suggest that a slowly progressive pattern will prevail with the trough from eastern Canada into the Great Lakes giving way to a ridge from the western Great Lakes to Hudson Bay by late Friday.
Another weak trough will pass through Wyoming and northern Colorado Thursday pushing the focus of convection to the southeast and out of the forecast area. Following the weak trough package Thursday night a ridge begins building over the Great Basin.
High pressure will stay to our north, over the Great Lakes for the short term. We won't be in the weakest part of the ridge, so not looking for as large of an urban/rural temperature difference each night as on a perfectly calm/clear night. At play will be what becomes of TC Harvey to our south and how much moisture gets picked up from it as an upper low drops into the Midwest. A persistent TC in the TX/LA area through midweek would likely help to keep troughing over our region, which would take in that moisture for good rain chances each day.
332 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017 Mid- to upper-level ridging will build over the Northland today, bringing abundant sunshine and dry conditions. Temperatures will once again be on the cooler side of climatology, with highs in the lower 60s over the Minnesota Arrowhead region, to the upper 60s further inland. Chances of showers should remain on the low side during the day, but will persist as the WAA builds into the region.
635 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017 An upper level trough of low pressure over eastern Canada and the Northeast will bring cooler conditions to the region today and Friday. High pressure builds in for the weekend and a slow warming trend will take place as more sunshine develops across the area. Upper level trough of low pressure will be over the region today with low level cold air advection taking place. Upper trough over eastern Canada moves east and looks to provide sufficient dynamic support over northeast Vermont for a few showers in the afternoon.
High pressure at the surface will be well east of the area during the day. and a lee trough will deepen some.
By Friday, a weak cold front will enter north Florida, and will draw up the tropical disturbance to the northeast. Development of this system is not expected in the short term, with NHC only calling for a 10 percent chance of tropical cyclone formation through the end of the work-week.
Subjective 00Z upper-air analysis indicates an upper-level low now centered in QB, with upper-level ridge axis from WY/MT into SK, and with northwesterly/cyclonic flow across the north central US, while weak and broad ridging dominated the southern US. An 850mb high was centered around the IA/MO border, with broad ridging across the southern Plains to upper Midwest. Moisture was returning on the western edge of the high, with a narrow band of 8C+ dewpoints from western NE to northern SD associated with southerly wind component.
249 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017 An upper level trough will remain in place over the region through tomorrow. Highs today and tomorrow will top out in the mid 70s to around 80 with lows tonight dipping into the lower to mid 50s.
Harvey continues its northwest to north-northwest track toward the lower to middle Texas coast and has increased in forward momentum over the last few hours.
The ridge of high pressure to the west starts to re-amplify this weekend which will temporarily set us up for favorable NW flow aloft.
627 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017 A frontal boundary with weak waves of low pressure moving along it, will push farther southeast of the area today into Friday.
1230 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017 High pressure ridge is sitting right over the CWA this evening and will slowly move east overnight. Current forecast has good handle on everything, including temps falling into the lower to middle 50s. Highs on Thursday will be dependent on how long cloud cover lingers in the NE half of the area, but in general we expect highs to be a degree or two warmer than today, in the upper 70s to around 80. The extended will be dominated by an upper trough in eastern Canada/Great Lakes and an upper ridge in the Plains and Rockies, setting up a persistent northwest flow into Illinois through this weekend.
Not much change, with northern Michigan firmly entrenched in deep and chilly northerly flow within southwest extent of anamously deep (for August) northeast NOAM centered trough axis. H8 temperatures pushing the lower single digits within this approaching thermal trough, and when combined with some enhanced synoptic moisture support, will likely continue to generate at least a few light lake induced showers in favored northerly flow areas through this morning. Strong Canadian high pressure further builds into the area later today, and especially tonight. Plenty of dry air and clear skies underneath this high, setting the stage for very chilly temperatures tonight and at least some patchy frost formation in our typical ice box locations. Slowly rising heights aloft and high pressure at the surface will lead to mostly clear skies through the period.
Cloud cover today will hold temperatures around 5-10 degrees below normal, with highs remaining in the low/mid 70s.
Today will be a bit warmer as slightly warmer 850mb air works in concert with abundant sunshine and a drier air mass. The ridge moves into the upper Great Lakes Fri night into Sat. In the extended, troughing remains over the area through this forecast period as the ECMWF and GFS show. VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours with light winds as high pressure anchors over the region. Over the next few days, as high pressure lingers across the Upper Great Lakes, the strongest winds look like they should be confined to the far southwest and eastern portions of the lake where localized funneling of the wind will be strongest.
246 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017 A cold front will push south through the region early this morning. High pressure over the Great Lakes will build south and east through the rest of the week, bringing cooler and drier weather. Isolated showers/thunderstorms may still occur as the cold front dips south across the region overnight. Extensive cloudiness is expected, especially in the eastern zones where the low level moisture will linger and be slow to scour out (dew points in the 70s). With the exception of a lingering afternoon shower in the far southeastern portion of the forecast area, much of the CWA should remain dry and significantly cooler than the past week or so. Expect high temperatures only in the low to mid 80s with north winds at 5-10 kts. Lows in the low to mid 60s across the area.
Otherwise, building high pressure will provide mainly dry and cool weather through the weekend. Fallish upper trough will be the main player in the near term, with fairly benign and cool weather. Northwest flow, continued cold air advection aloft from incoming trough, diurnal heating at the surface, and some lake moisture contribution will combine to churn up clouds and a few sprinkles/light showers from Finger Lakes through Mohawk Valley today, extending into the Twin Tiers-Western Catskills this afternoon-early evening. Main axis of upper trough will swing through overnight tonight, resulting in enough clouds to hold back valley fog development.
As the high pressure weakens and shifts to the east, from the west a mid-level trough will move into our area. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower 60s with highs in the mid 80s tomorrow.
With enhanced cloud cover and a cooler airmass advecting south across the region, high temperatures today to climb into the mid to upper 80s.
A cold front is draped across the northern border of our forecast area. Don't expect cooler conditions behind the front though- highs will still be in the low to mid 90s this afternoon- even behind the frontal boundary.
241 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017 At 2 AM, a short wave trough was moving southeast across Wisconsin and Lower Michigan. For tonight, a 700 mb trough will move slowly east into the area. In addition, the combination of mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, light winds, and dry dew points will allow temperatures to fall into the lower to mid 40s in central and north-central Wisconsin.
101 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017 A reinforcing cold front is expected to generate some showers on Thursday. Weekend weather will feature cool and dry conditions with high pressure. Rapid cooling in the mid levels combined with diurnal heating should allow for shower development as the mid-level trough swings across the area. Fries A broad upper trough in the ern CONUS will dominate the wx pattern through much of the remaining forecast as an upper ridge amplifies in the central CONUS. The Ohio Valley will lie between this ridge and the persistent upper trough on the east coast.
High pressure is centered near St. The high will move slowly northeast today. Temperatures will be similar to yesterday with highs in the low to mid 80s.
325 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017 The longwave trof will persist across eastern NOAM through tonight, with some deepening into the Great Lakes and OH Valley today as a well-defined short wave trof digs from the western Great southeastward within the northwest flow aloft. Temperatures today will be a tad warmer than yesterday, but along with the dew points, will still be below average for late August. High pressure centered to the east will still dominate the surface/lower trop tonight resulting in light winds, low dew points, and below average temps.
High pressure will then dominate at the surface through the weekend.
308 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017 A reinforcing cold front is expected to generate some showers today. Weekend weather will feature cool and dry conditions with high pressure. Rapid cooling in the mid levels combined with diurnal heating should allow for shower development as the mid-level trough swings across the area. Fries A broad upper trough in the ern CONUS will dominate the wx pattern through much of the remaining forecast as an upper ridge amplifies in the central CONUS. An upper trough could also result in isolated to scattered showers this afternoon. Clouds should scatter out tonight as the trough exits. No widespread restrictions expected under high pressure.
Initially based midwest/Great Lakes dominant sfc ridging influences along with a dry nwly flow aloft will be the main wx players thru this forecast period. Afternoon high temps today will range in the low to mid 80s, upper 70s to around 80 Cumberland Plateau Region.
Dry conditions will be in place from mid-morning through early afternoon with the next round of convection firing over the higher terrain between noon and 2 pm with a few cells approaching the valleys during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Stronger ridge will be building over the Great Basin this weekend with convective potential diminishing.
435 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017 An cold front over the region will move south of the area this evening. High pressure will build into the region for the weekend. bringing a dry and cooler airmass. A broad upper level trough crossing the eastern states will bring a west to northwest upper level flow to the region today. A slow moving cold front over the Midlands this morning will move south of the area this evening.
1202 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017 Canadian high pressure was building southward into the region this afternoon. This high will settle over central Missouri tonight and then slowly push eastward Thursday.
507 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017 A reinforcing cold front is expected to generate some showers today. Weekend weather will feature cool and dry conditions with high pressure. Rapid cooling in the mid levels combined with diurnal heating should allow for shower development as the mid-level trough swings across the area. Fries A broad upper trough in the ern CONUS will dominate the wx pattern through much of the remaining forecast as an upper ridge amplifies in the central CONUS. An upper trough could also result in isolated to scattered showers this afternoon. Clouds should scatter out tonight as the trough exits. No widespread restrictions expected under high pressure.
A warming trend will begin on Friday as ridge of high pressure strengthens over the area.
316 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017 Current (08Z) obs range from the low to upper 60s under clear skies across the TN Valley. These are 5-10 degrees cooler than 24 hrs ago thanks to the cold front passage yesterday and radiational cooling. Daytime highs will reach the low/mid 80s and you will be able to feel a difference with those lower dewpoints in place! Mostly clear skies will help temps fall into the lower 60s and even the upper 50s in southern middle TN tonight. Winds will become northeasterly and temps just a tad warmer.
Showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front are mostly expected to affect ECP, TLH, and VLD this afternoon. Fairly light WNW flow across the region today will keep rain chances on the low side through the evening hours. Expect mostly clear skies overnight with low temperatures generally in the lower 70s. No real change in airmass behind the front so expect highs in the lower 90s each day and lows Thursday night in the mid 70s.
This should fade around sunset, leaving only streamer activity tonight over the Lower Texas coastal waters and immediate three coastal counties.
315 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017 A cold front will push south through the region early this morning. High pressure over the Great Lakes will build south and east through the rest of the week, bringing cooler and drier weather. The slow moving convection appears to be occurring along the sfc cold front has depicted by sfc dewpoint analysis rather than the traditional wind shift line. The arrival of the drier cooler air mass will begin to be felt as overnight temperatures expected to lower into the low-mid 60s with upper 60s confined to the far southeast.
1247 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017 A fast-moving trough of low pressure will bring rain showers to much of northern Minnesota and inland portions of northwest Wisconsin this afternoon through this evening. The highest rain totals are expected from western Itasca County including Alvwood and Inger south through Brainerd and Aitkin and Hinckley. High pressure will continue to be the main influence over the Northland for Thursday. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected with temperatures remaining cool in the low to upper 60s. A warm front will likely develop across South Dakota into southern Minnesota. The GFS, European, and Canadian models are suggesting some showers and storms associated with the warm front could skirt the southwest and south-central forecast area Friday afternoon.
136 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017 Noticeably cooler and drier conditions will be felt across the region through the weekend. West to northwesterly flow in the low and middle levels of the atmosphere will keep the cool and dry air reinforced through the weekend.
Nocturnal convection continues to wane this morning as an trough axis pushes into Arizona, brushing the monsoonal moisture plume eastward into New Mexico. Temperatures will increase in response to the desiccating airmass and strengthening mid-level anti-cyclone, which will have the heart of the positive height anomalies displaced over the PacNW (though the center of the circulation will be anchored over the Great Basin). Temperatures warm enough to start flirting with the High HeatRisk category Sat/Sun, so we'll be keeping an eye on that.
453 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017 (Today and Tonight) A weak upper level ridge to our west will weaken further, and tropical cyclone Harvey in the Gulf of Mexico will move slowly to the northwest.
Today will be a bit warmer as slightly warmer 850mb air works in concert with abundant sunshine and a drier air mass. The ridge moves into the upper Great Lakes Fri night into Sat. In the extended, troughing remains over the area through this forecast period as the ECMWF and GFS show. VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours with light winds as high pressure anchors over the region.
An upper level trough will remain in place over the region through tomorrow. Highs today and tomorrow will top out in the mid 70s to around 80 with lows tonight dipping into the lower to mid 50s.
223 AM PDT Thu Aug 24 2017 A cold front will exit north Idaho this morning with showers coming to an end.
1253 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017 /06Z TAFS/ The only change from the previous aviation forecast was to remove the low cloud groups. Across the rest of the area, a weakening ridge over far West Texas will continue to slowly slide west and continue to flatten out, allowing for northwest flow to persist across the region. With this northwest flow aloft and a weak cold front over the southern Big Country, numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop along that boundary this afternoon.
At this time, the highest totals (10 to 20 inches with higher amounts possible) are expected to be generally along and to the south of the Interstate 10 corridor.