Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A weak weather system will push a dry cold front through northern Utah and southwest Wyoming Sunday. High pressure will follow for the majority of the upcoming week. This feature will continue eastward Sunday, pushing a dry cold front through northern Utah and southwest Wyoming during the afternoon hours.
A quiet night is on tap with continued mid/upper ridging across the TN and OH Valleys. AD Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 69 89 71 86 / 60 40 50 40 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 68 88 69 83 / 40 30 50 40 80 Oak Ridge, TN 88 67 88 68 83 / 60 30 50 40 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 64 85 66 82 / 20 20 60 30 70.
Thus, the highest PoPs, for this evening, mainly center over the Concho Valley.
More of the same is expected for Monday, with more widespread breezy winds, showers/storms, and cooler temperatures.
NBM, ensemble, and deterministic guidance all suggest that after a cooler than average start to the week we will warm each day through the end of the month. With MU CAPE values generally under 500 J/kg throughout the week severe seem unlikely at this point due to a lack of instability tied to the cooler temperatures and lower dew points.
400 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2020 Upper level ridging and warmer temperatures will be over the region for much of the weekend along with chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
Went with a little warmer guidance tonight because of this, but lows generally in the 50s to near 60 in the east. Blocking continues with a quasi-rex block over central Canada to start the extended. The associated upper level low pressure will take all week to move from southern Manitoba to just south of the Hudson bay. Deterministic model runs showing ridging building into the region thereafter as the next slow moving trough sets up over the Pacific Northwest. After somewhat drier air comes into place behind the cold front Sunday morning precipitable water values recover to around 1.
204 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2020 Upper level ridging and warmer temperatures will be over the region for much of the weekend along with chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
The rain/thunderstorm development situation Monday is much more settled as cooler Pacific air will be in place across wrn and ncntl Nebraska.
Our area is on the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge over California and the southwestern CONUS.
Water vapor imagery shows a closed low over Saskatchewan and Manitoba with a trough extending southward into southern Nebraska/northern Kansas. This trough seems to be what's helping to drive a small cluster of storms in eastern Nebraska. But as the trough moves east during the day, it could provide enough forcing to get some showers and storms going in the afternoon warmth in northeastern to central Missouri. Models continue to show the strongest storms diving southeastward across southern/southeastern Kansas and into Oklahoma, feeding into strong moisture transport with the low level jet. For Monday, it looks like we'll be on the cooler and drier side of the front before it helps trigger storms in southern Kansas and Missouri into Oklahoma. We may still see some showers and storms in the forecast area during the day as the trough is moving through.
That is where it will stall and remain through Monday morning before beginning to lift northward as an effective warm front for the next system in the extended.
257 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2020 An upper level low will continue to push off the coast today. Meanwhile, high pressure becomes centered off the southeast coast early this week, bringing summerlike warmth back to the area. The upper low will continue to push off the coast today, however there will still be enough residual moisture and instability for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Outside of any convection, partly cloudy skies expected today with high temps this afternoon ranging from the lower 80s across the eastern shore, to middle 80s inland.
This will bring along a weak cold front, which will help spark some showers and thunderstorms, mainly during peak heating. As a result, not as much cooler air is progged to wrap around the backside of this weather system with 700mb temperatures only dropping to 2. Temperatures will only be a few degrees cooler than on Sunday and will be seasonable.
413 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2020 Showers and thunderstorms have proliferated considerably during the last couple of hours across the area, with clusters of showers and isolated thunderstorms currently both south and north of the Lower Keys, and along parts of the Middle/Upper Keys and adjacent nearshore waters. Temperatures along the Keys island chain are hovering in the lower to mid 80s, and winds on land are from the southeast at 5 to 10 mph. Surface analysis depicts weak high pressure extending from the western Atlantic across the northern Bahamas and Florida peninsula into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Aloft, water vapor imagery shows the deep trough which has lingered over the eastern CONUS for the past several days finally shifting offshore and weakening, while the remnant troughing over the eastern Gulf is also shifting slowly eastward and gradually filling.
By this evening mid-level disturbances will be east of our CWA, taking with them the chance of precipitation for a couple hours before a cold front drops through the area on Monday. How the cold front behaves across our area will depend largely on the movement of a feature outside of the CWA. The movement of the cold front has sped up over the past couple of days, and now appears to move into the CWA Monday morning and pass southeastward through the area during the day.
General coverage should be less due to weak ridging aloft.
350 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020 WV imagery shows a broad, flat ridge aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, as well as rest of the srn CONUS in general. Forecast soundings in the lower Trans Pecos east of the dryline this afternoon are very similar to the past couple of days: mlcapes of 2500 J/kg or better, dcapes over 1500 J/kg, and mid-level lapse rates of more than 8 C/km, for a continued hail/wind threat.
A cold front is expected to push through the state on Monday providing another round of storms and cooler weather for midweek. ECMWF continues to eject much of the energy from the upper low quicker than the GFS and GEFS mean. The location of the upper low through mid-week will determine if there is significant instability to produce diurnal showers and storms.
115 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2020 Low pressure along the Mid Atlantic Coast will move east and offshore tonight. A transition to a much warmer weather pattern is expected the next several days, although accompanied by a daily threat of afternoon evening thunderstorms. Wind flow aloft will become southwesterly promoting much warmer daytime temperatures. Attm think the best coverage for showers will be over the mountains along and west of the Blue Ridge with somewhat lower chances east of Lynchburg and Danville. Warmer temperatures also suggest potential for isolated strong to severe deep convection. Ridging aloft is expected over the southeastern U. for early week with a trough in the north-central CONUS. This trough is forecast to progressively move east with time, the associated surface front reaching the eastern seaboard by mid-week.
919 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2020 An upper level low will continue to push off the coast today. Meanwhile, high pressure becomes centered off the southeast coast early this week, bringing summerlike warmth back to the area. Highs in the low-mid 80s.
532 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2020 A upper low was situated over Manitoba Province Canada with a trough axis south along the MS River Valley, with a broad west-northwest flow aloft into the eastern Pacific. The Manitoba upper low will move northeast into Ontario Province, broaden and meander through mid-week. Meanwhile, a upper ridge axis along the Pacific coast will shift east into the northern Rockies and Great Basin. Northwest flow aloft will prevail between a trough to the east and ridge to the west.
Expect early summer conditions across the region through the middle of the week as a high pressure ridge moves over the area and results in well above normal temperatures.
513 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2020 Upper level analysis shows closed upper low centered in western Manitoba, slowly moving eastward. Weak q-vector convergence and lingering moisture on the southern periphery of the Canadian upper low continue to support isolated showers and a few rumbles of thunder this morning. Weak cold air advection will result in slightly cooler temperatures Monday with upper 60s to mid 70s expected for highs.
Storm motion has been towards the northeast, a reflection of the shallow ridging overhead, and southwest flow above 5kft. Water vapor imagery clearly displays troughing still residing in the eastern Gulf, with the Keys region sandwiched in a moisture plume between drier air over central and north Florida and drier air over Cuba. This may be weak enough to allow island streamers or cloud lines to form off the larger islands in the lower Keys, which could be sufficient convergence to aid convection in the Gulf waters north of the lower Keys this afternoon.
A dry line extends south of the low and a nearly stationary boundary extends east into the northern reaches of our CWA.
/issued 350 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020/ WV imagery shows a broad, flat ridge aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, as well as rest of the srn CONUS in general. Forecast soundings in the lower Trans Pecos east of the dryline this afternoon are very similar to the past couple of days: mlcapes of 2500 J/kg or better, dcapes over 1500 J/kg, and mid-level lapse rates of more than 8 C/km, for a continued hail/wind threat.
A weak weather system will push a dry cold front through much of Utah Sunday. High pressure will follow for the majority of the upcoming week.
Other than the rain chances, Monday should see partly cloudy skies, northerly winds and afternoon highs in the lower 80s.
High temperatures will be in the lower 90s and lows tonight in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
346 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2020 A upper low was situated over Manitoba Province Canada with a trough axis south along the MS River Valley, with a broad west-northwest flow aloft into the eastern Pacific. The Manitoba upper low will move northeast into Ontario Province, broaden and meander through mid-week. Meanwhile, a upper ridge axis along the Pacific coast will shift east into the northern Rockies and Great Basin. Northwest flow aloft will prevail between a trough to the east and ridge to the west.
The temperature at DIA is 19 degrees F warmer now than it was 24 hours ago. The low level winds should adhere to normal diurnal patterns today and this evening. A cold front moves down tonight with upslope flow developing by dawn Monday. The best measurable precipitation is over the the high county and northern border late this afternoon. For temperatures, today's highs look to be 0-2 C cooler than yesterday's highs.
650 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2020 Upper level ridging and warmer temperatures will be over the region today.
316 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2020 Scattered showers will continue at times today, becoming more widespread late morning and into the afternoon along with a few thunderstorms - all as a cold front pushes through the area.
A cloudy morning will gradually give way to sunshine this afternoon as high pressure builds across the region.
AD Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 69 89 71 84 / 60 40 70 60 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 67 88 69 82 / 40 30 50 60 90 Oak Ridge, TN 87 69 86 70 81 / 60 30 60 60 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 64 86 66 82 / 20 20 40 50 90.
The cold front expected to move southeast into the far southeastern Texas Panhandle by 15Z Monday and then completely out of the forecast area by 18Z Monday.
Moving into Monday, the forcing with cold front will be more apparent and coverage should increase.
Convective development across our NW zones early this morning likely tied to elevated instability axis with weak theta-e ridging noted in the 850mb level that is well depicted in the new 12z NAM output.
/issued 212 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020/ Wx map shows weak high pressure ridging across the Gulf, providing a light southeast flow across the coastal waters, with nearly calm winds inland. Temperatures across the region in the mid to upper 70s, a little warmer than yesterday at this time.
644 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2020 An upper level low will continue to push off the coast today. Meanwhile, high pressure becomes centered off the southeast coast early this week, bringing summerlike warmth back to the area. The upper low will continue to push off the coast today, however there will still be enough residual moisture and instability for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Outside of any convection, partly cloudy skies expected today with high temps this afternoon ranging from the lower 80s across the eastern shore, to middle 80s inland.
/issued 356 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): Weak 500 mb troughiness will continue to prevail along the Texas coastline during the period. With the 500 mb troughiness in place and mid-level high pressure retrograding from central Mexico to west of the Baja Peninsula, daytime high and overnight low temperatures should prevail in the near normal range for the rest of the weekend into the coming week.
Another warm and humid day with highs in the low to mid 90s across the coastal plains and upper 90s across the western Brush Country. Another similar day is in store for Monday, but with slightly warmer temperatures.
542 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2020 A upper low was situated over Manitoba Province Canada with a trough axis south along the MS River Valley, with a broad west-northwest flow aloft into the eastern Pacific. The Manitoba upper low will move northeast into Ontario Province, broaden and meander through mid-week. Meanwhile, a upper ridge axis along the Pacific coast will shift east into the northern Rockies and Great Basin. Northwest flow aloft will prevail between a trough to the east and ridge to the west.
Currently seeing mostly clear skies and quiet conditions across our area as the region remains under the influence of weak ridging aloft. This ridge axis will slowly begin to push eastward over the next several hours while a MCV near Arkansas simultaneously advances NE toward the region. instead having the ridging stay strong enough to keep the afternoon dry! Given the available moisture in the region.
High pressure will remain over the region for the next several days, with light winds turning onshore with the sea breeze each afternoon.
236 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2020 A mid and upper level low just off the mid Atlantic coast continues to disrupt the eastward extent of the Bermuda High.
Storms now over the High Plains will shift east and southeast tonight.
Current temperatures are in the low to middle 70s this morning. Moving into Monday, the forcing with cold front will be more apparent and coverage should increase.
By the midweek timeframe, both the latest GFS/ECMWF do show a building amplified upper ridge over the Rockies that will finally push eastward, and begin to move the cutoff low that has been sitting over the Great Lks/eastern Canada area.
As we head into the evening, a warm front will lift northward into Neb, the western trough/dryline will migrate eastward into central Neb/western KS, with a cold front advancing south from SD/northern Neb this evening/tonight.
A weak weather system will push a dry cold front through northern and central Utah today. High pressure will follow for the majority of the upcoming week. A weak dry cold front barely noticeable across northwest Utah this morning will become somewhat more defined this afternoon across the Uinta Basin and Castle Country as the surface gradient increases. Temperatures will warm to about 5 degrees above normal across the central and southern Wasatch Front into central Utah today despite the arrival of the weak cold front this afternoon, while the south will continue to see a slight warming trend toward 5-10 degrees above normal.
18Z AMA sounding shows a healthy enough cap that may be difficult to overcome with the cooler temperatures and the lack of a strong low level focus as convergence along the dryline has become quite weak. Looking to Monday, winds switch around to the north early in the day as an outflow-enhanced cold front pushes quickly southward through the forecast area. Better precip chances will pushed into Monday evening with an MCS coming off the high terrain to the west. The primary bonus is high temperatures roughly 5-10 degrees cooler than previously expected.
215 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020 An upper trough will remain in place over the northern plains through the short term. Clouds and rain under the upper trough will moderate temps, but any sunshine will act quickly to bump them up. Starting out the period, the region finds itself in northwestern flow with a trough in place over Ontario down through the Great Lakes region. To the west, ridging expands through Montana and into northern Saskatchewan.
125 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2020 With the upper low over Manitoba, active cyclonic flow persists over the northern plains. An upper ridge will build over the western states for Tues/Wed, resulting in warmer and drier weather.
Expect similar temperatures as today, with northwest flow aloft as the upper low moves off slightly to our northeast and becomes centered over western Ontario.
Clouds should gradually decrease in coverage through the afternoon a weak upper ridging slowly builds into the region.
Expect early summer conditions across the region are expected through the middle of the week as a high pressure ridge moves over the area and results in well above normal temperatures.
Later tonight an approaching upper trough and surface wave moving northeast along a slow moving cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area.
255 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020 The upper trough responsible for today's showers and storms will continue to move off to the northeast tonight.
An upper trough will be over the High Plains and Central High Plains Monday morning with northwest flow aloft over the Tri- State area. An upper ridge will be situated over the Western CONUS.
1132 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2020 Upper level ridging and warmer temperatures will be over the region today.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 89 71 84 69 / 40 70 60 90 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 88 69 82 68 / 30 50 60 90 80 Oak Ridge, TN 69 86 70 81 67 / 40 60 60 90 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 86 66 82 66 / 30 40 50 90 80.
259 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020 Scattered thunderstorms are erupting across southern Minnesota this afternoon ahead of a cold front. Monday's highs will be cooler in the mid 70s.
Weak short wave is expected to rotate around upper trough centered north of Minnesota late this afternoon, and may interact with surface boundary and gravity waves emanating from elevated storms in eastern Nebraska. Fair amount of clouds and cooler temperatures will keep temperatures below normal.
Previous discussion: Scattered showers will continue at times today, becoming more widespread late morning and into the afternoon along with a few thunderstorms - all as a cold front pushes through the area.
The best chances for rain and thunderstorms are ahead of the cold front that passed through eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota yesterday. Heading into Monday we will get another chance for some rain showers as a couple of vort maxes along the western side of an upper low currently over the Canadian Prairies moves across eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. With another cooler day tomorrow the instability will again be limited so thunderstorms will be unlikely, although an isolated non-severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.
These upper waves will be embedded within a digging broad upper trough pattern developing over much of the ern CONUS. This may begin to change though late Mon night into Tue, as a weak cold front begins to approach the cntrl TN Valley from the NW. Given the cloud cover/rainfall xpcted to be in place over much of the area Mon/Tue, afternoon highs look to trend slightly below normal in the lower/mid 80s, while overnight lows remain in the upper 60s/near 70F for most spots. On a North American scale by the middle of this week, an upper low north of the Great Lakes was producing troughing over the SE CONUS.
An upper low parks just north of the Great Lakes and weak ridging dominates the Plains. Weak surface ridging just to the east sets up south/southwesterly winds at the surface constantly reinforcing the warm and humid air in place over the region. Models are having some issues with delineating between diurnal convection, southerly extent of waves pivoting around the upper trough, and what looks to be an almost feedback signal.
155 PM PDT Sun Jun 21 2020 High pressure will be building over California this week, shrinking the marine layer, and bringing fair and much warmer weather inland. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO * Seasonably hot inland this week while the coast remains mild * Marine layer cloudiness each night/morning coast/inland valleys Expansive upper level high pressure is building over the state and will continue to do so through mid week.
308 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2020 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through midweek, while a weak trough persists inland.
High temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 90s.
(This Evening through Monday Night) \ Last vestiges of deep ridge over Lower Great Lakes to Middle Ohio Valley to acquiesce to strong southern Manitoba cyclone with increasing rain chances with time. Best theta-e ridge with mixed layer CAPE 1000-1500 j/kg in corridor from Michigan thumb into northwest Indiana/northeast Illinois. Canadian system lifts northeast to just west of James Bay Monday evening with sharpening trough southward through the Upper Great Lakes.
In this high instability, weak vertical wind shear environment, expect these showers and thunderstorms to dissipate rapidly this evening. The central Gulf coast area will be under the influence of a weak upper level trough midweek. The trough will weaken towards the end of the week and this will greatly reduce the amount of showers and thunderstorms as a result.
Mid/upper long wave trough currently oriented across TX from west- southwest to east-northeast, will move southeast tonight, pushing the upper jet farther south of the region. At 250mb, models prog a confluent/subsident flow over S TX and weak ridging in the mid levels. Only went with a slight chance given the mid level ridging and subsident flow aloft. A low pressure system moving across the plains Monday will lead to a tighter pressure gradient across S TX.
239 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2020 Upper level ridge over the region will move offshore on Monday with isolated convection expected.
1202 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2020 A upper low was situated over Manitoba Province Canada with a trough axis south along the MS River Valley, with a broad west-northwest flow aloft into the eastern Pacific. The Manitoba upper low will move northeast into Ontario Province, broaden and meander through mid-week. Meanwhile, a upper ridge axis along the Pacific coast will shift east into the northern Rockies and Great Basin. Northwest flow aloft will prevail between a trough to the east and ridge to the west.
The central states upper trof continues to amplify on Monday and also advance eastward slowly. Highs on Monday range from the lower 90s inland to the upper 80s at the coast.
1223 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2020 An upper level low will continue to push off the coast today. Meanwhile, high pressure becomes centered off the southeast coast early this week, bringing summerlike warmth back to the area. Highs in the low-mid 80s.
Worth noting that the synoptic cold front is lighting up in western Kansas, with a break to the northeast and then convection again in northeastern Nebraska at this hour.