Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure building over the Atlantic will provide calm winds and seas through the remainder of the work week with land and sea breezes being the main driver of winds closer to the coast. An uptick in shower and thunderstorm development is expected over the coming days and a trough of low pressure will be moving into the waters this weekend.
This is the area with the highest flash flood risk. Now all that said, let's not forget to enjoy the cooler temperatures.
Ridging aloft begins breaking down tonight, leading to weak upper level troughing and an associated surface front moving across the Northern Plains through Thursday.
1059 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2017 A weak ridge of high pressure will slide across Pennsylvania tonight. A strong cold front will push south through the region Thursday.
Low temperatures will range in the low/mid 70s inland to upper 70s river basin/coast under near calm winds.
1205 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017 Stout synoptic scale forcing will allow aggressive surface ridging to build into the central Great Lakes tonight. A cold front will resides along the southern, lead edge of the surface anticyclone. Model data times the lower to middle tropospheric cold front through Detroit between 09-12Z Thursday morning. Persistence weather from now until cold front passage between 09-012Z Thursday.
Winds to gradually shift from northeast to southeast overnight into Thursday morning as high pressure moves over the western Great Lakes. Breezy conditions will develop in the afternoon along and west of the valley in the return flow as temps rise into the low 80s with cooler values of 70s in the east.
710 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2017 A cold front approaching from the north will cross Lake Erie tonight and move through northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania by Thursday morning.
540 PM MDT Wed Aug 30 2017 Latest satellite imagery and upper air analysis show the ridge of high pressure centered over the Four Corners Region. Rotating south around the ridge was a short wave trough over Northwestern Nebraska. This short wave trough has lead to some rain activity. For the rest of the afternoon and into the evening this short wave trough will continue to move south toward the Tri-State Area, but will fill before moving into the forecast area. During the day another upper level short wave trough will flatten the ridge to the west some as the trough moves southeast. Isolated storms may accompany this trough as it nears the forecast area by early evening.
A weak warm front continues across portions of our western zones.
1139 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2017 A weak ridge of high pressure will slide across Pennsylvania tonight. A strong cold front will push south through the region Thursday.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 81 70 74 / 100 70 80 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 79 68 77 / 80 70 80 70 Oak Ridge, TN 66 78 69 75 / 80 70 80 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 76 66 79 / 70 70 70 70.
A weak low pressure system will move across the area overnight. High pressure aloft will prevail on Thursday and then slowly strengthen through the Labor Day weekend for a warming trend. A weak cold front associated with a weak upper level trof of low pressure brought areas of light rain or drizzle to the coast late this afternoon through early this evening. The upper level trof should be east of the area by sunrise. 500 mb heights will rebound over the area Thursday in the wake of the trof passage. At the low levels, the flow will remain onshore with a northerly component.
704 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2017 Weak high pressure will extend across the area into tonight. A cold front will drop south across the region on Thursday and then stall just south of the Ohio River.
1157 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2017 A cold front will approach from the northwest overnight and will drop south through the region on Thursday.
944 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2017 A cold front will approach from the northwest tonight and will drop south through the region on Thursday.
810 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2017 Aviation Cloudiness and much cooler air will spread south across the area overnight with some sprinkles possible.
Wind speeds forecast to be a little stronger than the past few nights in far western Kansas so given this will stay close to the latest guidance which are a few degrees warmer than last night. Will therefore trend towards the cooler guidance for lows which happen to be also a few degrees warmer compared to earlier this morning.
The evening local sounding shows that the airmass has continued to gain moisture over the past 24 hours, especially in the lowest layers. We remain conditionally unstable, but there is a moderate layer of convective resistance in the lowest layers.
The brief cool down will end today as a strong area of high pressure begins to build over the Western U. Clear skies under dry northwesterly flow will persist through early this week as a strong ridge of high pressure builds across the Western U.
An upper level trough was progressing eastward into the Plains this morning at 0730Z with the trough axis across western Kansas. The upper trough will move over eastern Kansas this morning with the axis moving into Missouri this afternoon. A cold front will move southeast across the central Plains overnight as an mid level trough moves across the northern Plains.
940 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 Morning Cape sounding shows noticeable moistening occurred overnight in the low levels aided by veering winds out of the S/SE between 500 and 700 mb.
Most of the cloud cover associated with the cold front and convection has moved out of our FA late this morning.
1212 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 High pressure will move east of the region today into Monday.
728 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather today. Rain can be expected with a Monday cold front and eventually a change in our weather pattern. This slow down is in response to the development of a cutoff 500mb low over the lower Mississippi valley Sunday night. This upper low is slowing height falls over the region, and is holding back the eastward progression of large scale ascent. Additionally, the deep moisture stream will be slowed, as it squeezes northward between the upper low and the exiting ridge. Have slowed the higher PoPs a few hours on Monday and am thinking that the main rain shield will not make it across the entire area until late in the afternoon or evening.
1040 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 High pressure will extend across the eastern United States through tonight. Clouds will continue to increase and thicken tonight as a s/w deepens and becomes a closed low over the western TN Valley by early Monday. Low level flow will be increasing and providing a strong moisture feed into the southern mountains early Monday, with low level jetting increasing to exceed 50 knots as the flow veers increasingly southerly and begins marching east ahead of an associated surface cold front. In addition, the low level shear profile would support rotation in stronger storms, so isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 78 65 69 50 / 0 90 100 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 79 62 68 49 / 0 30 90 50 Oak Ridge, TN 79 62 67 49 / 0 60 90 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 79 58 69 48 / 0 30 90 80.
A progressive, broad and sharp trough across the central U. is pushing a cold front and associated rain axis through eastern Iowa into northwest Illinois this morning. Passage of the cold front today will mark a transition to more seasonal temperatures while also dropping light to moderate rain across the area. Much cooler temperatures are expected overnight with readings widespread in the 40s, especially if clouds clear overnight as currently expected. Temperatures Monday and Monday night should be close to late October normals with highs in the low to mid 60s and lows in the low to mid 40s.
South to southwest winds will remain gusty through the morning at the coast, over the higher terrain, and east of the Cascades, diminishing some this afternoon. We have introduced some lower visibility and ceilings this evening for MFR based on the high soil moisture and increasing stability leading to the chance for some fog/mist and IFR conditions.
754 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 A large area of high pressure centered off the New Jersey coast will bring spectacular Autumn conditions today through much of Monday, to enjoy the near peak color of the fall foliage. A high-amplitude and deepening, cold upper trough will become located across the eastern U.
A secondary low pressure system developing along the front will prolong these precipitation chances into the early portion of the week, along with a large upper level low pressure that will drop into the Great Lakes early to mid week. Temperatures will turn sharply cooler during this time frame. Surface analysis late this morning shows southerly flow in place across Indiana as a cold front was found near the Mississippi River valley. Water Vapor imagery shows a deep trough over the Central PLains. The boundary will slow further as this secondary system develops, and the exact location of this will determine placement of the highest precipitation chances.
Lee trof developing ahead of this jet across central Montana, with a few showers along the boundary. Jet remains overhead, but will be changing orientation to the northwest as it digs into the trof over the Mississippi valley left by previous trof. Jet will be slowly shifting eastward with ridge pushing over the west coast.
618 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017 Starting this morning with 500mb ridges over the southwestern U. , and across the eastern third of the nation, with a trough over the central U. The trough axis overhead early this morning will exit across MN this afternoon, with the southern end of the trough lingering over the southeastern states, as a secondary trough slides across the Dakotas from the northwest tonight. Northwest flow will then be the rule aloft, as a high amplitude ridge builds over the western states up through British Columbia.
However, in-situ web cameras indicate that the fog is likely confined to near ground level, so MIFG has been placed in the current issuance of TAFs along with the low clouds. Veering and increasing winds will occur as a cold front approaches and sweeps through the area. /issued 344 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): The most recent surface analysis indicates a cold front from roughly Bonham to San Angelo to El Paso. After the passage of the cold front, a massive influx of dry air and a mid-level flow out of the northwest will produce dry weather tonight and Monday.
Temperatures are running a bit cooler than currently forecast, but not enough difference to force an update of expected highs at this point.
1204 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather this afternoon. Rain can be expected with a Monday cold front and eventually a change in our weather pattern. This slow down is in response to the development of a cutoff 500mb low over the lower Mississippi valley Sunday night. This upper low is slowing height falls over the region, and is holding back the eastward progression of large scale ascent. Additionally, the deep moisture stream will be slowed, as it squeezes northward between the upper low and the exiting ridge. Have slowed the higher PoPs a few hours on Monday and am thinking that the main rain shield will not make it across the entire area until late in the afternoon or evening.
Cold front has cleared east of the forecast area early this morning. Expect a warmer day on Monday ahead of another reinforcing cold front, arriving late Monday and Monday night.
High pressure will build over the southwest through mid week with above average high temperatures. Another cold front could impact the area late this week. A building ridge of high pressure over the southwest US will be the main weather feature over the next several days.
Upper jet becomes more amplified on Monday as ridging begins to build along the west coast. This will drive a surface cold front southward through the plains on Monday morning, turning the winds more northwesterly.
1026 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 Cold front is currently crossing the Mississippi River. High pressure is still anchored across the Middle Atlantic and should begin to push offshore later today. High pressure centered over the mid atlantic states finally looses its grip on the eastern seaboard as a developing frontal system moves east out of the MS river valley today.
Southeasterly winds will increase overnight again as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
Cold front and light rain north of our CWA this morning will sag south into central idaho and eastern Oregon later today. , southeast, of the cold front temps will be warmer today and any pcpn will be in the form of rain. Only the highest northern mountains can expect any snow. Surface winds southeast to southwest 10-25 kts, strongest across the higher terrain. Drier conditions develop tonight and Monday as an upper ridge builds along the coast, cutting off the moisture tap. Temperatures are about 10 degrees warmer today.
High pressure centered over the mid atlantic states finally looses its grip on the eastern seaboard as a developing frontal system moves east out of the MS river valley today.
A lack of moisture across the area will likely render any passing trough relatively ineffective with respect to precipitation production.
418 AM MST Sun Oct 22 2017 The brief cool down will end today as a strong area of high pressure begins to build over the Western U. Clear skies under dry northwesterly flow will persist through early this week as a strong ridge of high pressure builds across the Western U.
A mild westerly flow aloft will result in warmer temperatures today. A weak cold front tonight will curb the warming trend for tomorrow before high pressure rebuilds through the middle of the week. The forecast area is under a zonal flow this morning on the front side of a relatively flat ridge centered off the Pacific coast. The flattening is due to a system moving over the top of the ridge over Oregon and Idaho. Behind this, high pressure is expected to build through the middle of the week, keeping things dry and allowing the airmass to warm aloft. This will result in very mild temperatures for the higher elevations but limited mixing will make it so these temperatures are not fully realized in valley locations.
An area of high pressure centered off the coast of the southeastern United States continues to push eastward this morning. An area of tropical moisture rounding the ridge will potentially bring additional ingredients for convection, mainly over the Gulf waters, later today. An approaching frontal boundary will push into the lower Mississippi Valley today as it moves eastward towards Florida over the next 24 hours.
1003 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 Dry and warm weather will continue today as high pressure moves off to the east.
749 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 Dry and mild today as high pressure pulls away from the region.
Jaszka A fast moving Pacific cold front will move through the region today. A strong mid level jet with winds up to 80 knots around ridgetop was passing over the region early this morning. A cold front will sweep though the area this afternoon providing further support to transport strong winds to the surface. Mountain Snow - Snowfall is expected over the higher elevations, especially over the Rocky Mountain Front. Hunters and those recreating in the higher elevation should be prepared for difficult conditions due to snow in addition to the wind hazards.
Under mostly sunny skies, this will allow highs to push the lower 70s(F) late this afternoon. Yet another cold front will push through western Kansas early Monday bringing with it another surge of drier air into the high plains.
A storm system and cold front continue to move through AR today, as the rain gradually lessens through the day. Then drying out into the coming week with cooler temperatures. The upper low pressure trough was near the OK and AR state line and will gradually move east also. Cooler temperatures will be seen with highs from the 60s north to the 70s central and south. Models continue to develop the upper low pressure system over the southern part of the region, and will have to keep some chances of rain in the forecast, especially in the east, into Sunday night and Monday. This low pressure gradually moves to the east Monday ending the chances of rain. Temperatures will remain cooler than normal for Monday.
641 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017 An elongated ridge of high pressure has settled into the forecast area in the wake of the cold front that is moving into the Mississippi Valley region this morning.
Starting this morning with 500mb ridges over the southwestern U. , and across the eastern third of the nation, with a trough over the central U. The trough axis overhead early this morning will exit across MN this afternoon, with the southern end of the trough lingering over the southeastern states, as a secondary trough slides across the Dakotas from the northwest tonight. Northwest flow will then be the rule aloft, as a high amplitude ridge builds over the western states up through British Columbia.
High pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic region continued to provide dry weather across the lower Ohio Valley early this morning as the latest satellite imagery shows a stream of cirrus moving overhead. A cold front, currently along a line from near Minneapolis to Oklahoma City will slowly advance eastward toward our area today. Will maintain the highest precipitation chances from mid/late evening through Monday morning across the entire area where 1 to 2 inches is likely. In its wake, a strong cold front will sweep through Monday evening and Monday night, bringing a surge of cold air and breezy northwest winds.
1000 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 High pressure will move east of the region today into Monday.
/issued 351 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017/ An area of high pressure centered off the coast of the southeastern United States continues to push eastward this morning. An area of tropical moisture rounding the ridge will potentially bring additional ingredients for convection, mainly over the Gulf waters, later today. An approaching frontal boundary will push into the lower Mississippi Valley today as it moves eastward towards Florida over the next 24 hours.
A secondary low pressure system developing along the front will prolong these precipitation chances into the early portion of the week, along with a large upper level low pressure that will drop into the Great Lakes early to mid week. Temperatures will turn sharply cooler during this time frame. Guidance continues to slow progression of the cold front, and thus arrival of precipitation. The boundary will slow further as this secondary system develops, and the exact location of this will determine placement of the highest precipitation chances.
/issued 446 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017/ Our well-advertised cold front with accompanying squall line of thunderstorms continues to make its way through the heart of the region early this morning with occasional wind gusts of 40 mph or higher. Cooler and drier air will spill southward in wake of the front as clearing skies will allow for temperatures to drop off quickly over much of the region by Monday morning with most areas reaching the mid to upper 40s and lower 50s.
949 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 A large area of high pressure centered off the New Jersey coast will bring spectacular Autumn conditions today through much of Monday, to enjoy the near peak color of the fall foliage. A high-amplitude and deepening, cold upper trough will become located across the eastern U.
lee-side trough over the Front Range combined with H5/H7 ridge axis over the region will give the area a dry warm day with highs into the lower 70s.
648 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017 The cold front has moved through the forecast area, but the southwest winds behind the front will give us another warmer than normal day. Hence today will be a partly cloudy day with most areas reaching the low to mid 60s.
642 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017 CIGs in Austin and San Antonio will be MVFR/IFR ahead of the cold front this morning. As an upper level trough moves across the Central/Southern Plains, a cold front surges across South Central Texas this morning. The highest threat for storms will be northeast of a Fredericksburg to La Grange line closest to the best dynamics.
5 inches of rain with the higher totals in the east this evening as the large swath of rain will increase in size this afternoon into tonight as it swings east. Models are in better agreement with faster progression of the upper trough on Monday.
Cold pool maintenance and strong wind threat is a more in question later this morning and afternoon, given limited available instability ahead of an approaching upper level trof.
924 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 Dry and mild today as high pressure pulls away from the region.
1028 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 High pressure will push eastward into the northwest Atlantic through Monday.
The weather system to our north and associated cold front are responsible and will continue to impact the region throughout the day. Look for the cold front to sag south a bit bringing strong low level flow up against the Cascades and Coastal Range. Eventually the cold front will deform and weaken as the system heads eastward.
503 AM MDT Sun Oct 22 2017 Weak ridging has set up across the High Plains this morning with the next bit of active weather moving into the Pacific NW. Warmer air will be very short-lived across the CWA as the next cold front pushes through tonight. Strong upper ridging will develop across the western CONUS Tue/Wed.
809 AM MST Sun Oct 22 2017 The brief cool down will end today as a strong area of high pressure begins to build over the Western U. Height rises on the 500mb surface already up into the 590s on neighboring 12z RAOBs and in spite of the cool morning start, highs will rebound in the low 90s today. Clear skies under dry northwesterly flow will persist through early this week as a strong ridge of high pressure builds across the Western U.
High pressure will build over the region today and remain in place through much of the upcoming week.
In fact, the jet stream has begun shifting northward and with high pressure building in, it will shift even further into Canada for much of the week. So with high pressure building in, we can return to gorgeous fall weather with temperatures slowly warming and plenty of sunny skies.
600 AM MDT Sun Oct 22 2017 Aviation Section Updated A fast moving Pacific cold front will move through the region today. A strong mid level jet with winds up to 80 knots around ridgetop was passing over the region early this morning. A cold front will sweep though the area this afternoon providing further support to transport strong winds to the surface. Mountain Snow - Snowfall is expected over the higher elevations, especially over the Rocky Mountain Front. Hunters and those recreating in the higher elevation should be prepared for difficult conditions due to snow in addition to the wind hazards.
1026 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 Currently - A large high pressure extends along the Atlantic Coast, resulting in moderate to fresh east to southeast breezes across the Florida Keys and surrounding waters. However, drier air is expected to arrive through the lower and mid levels. Large high pressure along the Atlantic Coast will maintain moderate to fresh east to southeast breezes across Keys waters.
343 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017 At 3 pm, satellite and radar data showed the upper level low churning over northern Illinois with associated scattered thunderstorms along and east of the Mississippi River. Storms will dissipate due to both diurnal processes and the exiting of an enhancing lobe of vorticity rotating around the upper low this afternoon. Tuesday, the upper low continues to slowly fill and shift east, confining its cool pool aloft and diurnal instability max to the east, just brushing our northern IL counties, where slight chance pops are maintained.