Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
652 AM EDT Thu Apr 14 2022 A cold front moves through the area today with scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms. High pressure builds in tonight into Friday with dry weather and cooler temperatures.
A cold front is moving through the mid state at this hour, chasing a thin band of showers across our eastern counties. It will be much cooler than yesterday, but still mild with highs in the mid 60s everywhere.
Narrow area of frontogenetic forcing across southern Lower Michigan will bring light rain beginning late tonight and continuing into Friday with the highest amounts of about two tenths of an inch liquid QPF along the southern tier towards Jackson. Some wet snow could mix in at the onset but no impacts expected with surface temperatures above freezing.
Early afternoon surface observations show temperatures generally range from the lower 70s to mid 80s, along with some gusty southeast winds. We will also keep a low chance for isolated thunderstorms in the forecast along the Highway 77 corridor.
High pressure shifts eastward on Friday with southerly flow beginning to return late in the day. Model forecast soundings show very dry air within the boundary layer along with weak downslope flow along the western slopes of foothills of the Appalachians, so went below NBM guidance and near the lower end of available model guidance for dew points to account for the anomalous dry airmass.
The cold front that moved across the area last night had slowed its progress down somewhat, with it becoming quasi-stationary just east of the AL/GA border. With cooler air filtering in from the NW, as high pressure over the eastern plains heads eastward, high temperatures this afternoon will be cooler than they were yesterday. The cell of high pressure will shift east into the middle Atlantic States tonight into Friday.
Upper level low pressure system continues to rotate over northeastern MN, with snow showers continuing to wrap around the backside of the low across our area. The cold air mass and at least some cloud cover will linger into Friday as the upper low pulls off into Ontario. This appears to be more of a hybrid and with thermal profiles and near surface temps below freezing, look for more snow. Therefore, look for temps to stay below freezing for a good part of the area through Mon. MVFR to IFR conditions across the region as bands of snow showers continue to rotate behind a low pressure system.
139 PM EDT Thu Apr 14 2022 Windy and cooler weather today with showers ending early.
121 PM PDT Thu Apr 14 2022 Slightly warmer temperatures are in store today and Friday under mostly clear skies.
Snow along a warm front lifted north of the area this morning and the Winter Weather Advisory for the far southwest ID zones was cancelled.
Deep low pressure resides north of International Falls. The high winds and very dry air with dew points in the single digits and teens is creating very high to extreme fire danger, one that will allow any fires that start to quickly become uncontrollable until sunset. For tonight into Friday, winds will be diminishing tonight as the low continues to pull away and the gradient relaxes.
A NW-N flow rounding this high was bringing noticeably cooler air to the region. Despite a return of near full strength sun, 2 PM temperatures have managed to rise into the low/mid 60s most spots. Mid/upper 60s readings were present over NE Alabama, where the cooler air has yet to filter in fully. The ridge should continue building to the east, reaching the Mid Atlantic coast by early Friday afternoon. Before then, a cooler night can be expected as lows fall into the lower 40s. Another cold front trailing south of low pressure over southern Ontario will head to the SE, moving across the forecast area on Sat afternoon, becoming stationary over central MS/AL/GA Sat evening.
As the high pressure moves farther east tomorrow, winds will turn out of the east and begin to move moisture back north into our area. /NF/ Tomorrow night through Thursday: The forecast period starts off tomorrow night with predominately zonal flow draped across most of the CONUS on the poleward side of an upper ridge centered over Mexico.
Surface obs show the cold front moving eastward across far northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia with drier air beginning to advect across the area from the west. High pressure continues to build across the region with light winds and a clearing sky. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 46 77 56 76 49 / 0 0 50 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 43 76 52 74 45 / 0 0 40 40 10 Oak Ridge, TN 43 76 52 74 44 / 0 0 40 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 38 73 49 70 40 / 0 0 20 40 10.
123 PM EDT Thu Apr 14 2022 A cold front moves through the area today. High pressure builds in tonight into Friday with dry weather and cooler temperatures.
An upper level low, currently over central Washington State will move east and be situated over the Mission Valley by daybreak Friday. In response more widespread accumulating snowfall is expected in this region, including the Highway 200 corridor. Therefore we have issued a winter weather advisory because this is the area where we have the highest confidence for more widespread impact.
- Cold front Passage This Morning A line of showers will continue to move across Michigan this morning accompanying the passage of the cold front. The cooler and drier air should have a downsloping effect though there is some concern about how long the atmosphere will be able to mix up that high. However given the cooler, drier air that seems unlikely. - Cooler weather through the weekend The winds will diminish Thursday evening with winds increasing again on Friday.
334 PM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022 A beautiful dry day is on tap across the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures in the low to mid 60s. Unfortunately, this wont last for long as a warm front lifts from the south into our area.
Deep mixing shown on the forecast soundings is likely to mix down at least isolated 50kt gusts during the mid/late afternoon and gusts to 60 mph already mentioned in the current NPW, opted to go with the high wind warning, to the same end time of 00z. A cold front, associated with an occluded storm system over the northern Plains, has shifted well east of the area into western Ohio early this morning. In its wake, much cooler and drier conditions have returned to the area. The one negating factor to a more significant fire weather threat, that can typically accompany such windy and dry conditions, is the high fuel moisture from yesterdays heavy rainfall.
Discussion A strong low pressure is moving across the upper Midwest with a high pressure paralleling it across the Ozarks. Southerly flow Friday morning helps propel high temperatures into the 60s before a large high pressure sinks southward from Alberta setting the tone for the weekend. Cooler conditions linger with highs in the 50s and overnight lows oscillating above and below freezing.
The one difference today is that temperatures are warmer, allowing for precip to fall as rain in the Magic Valley and lower Snake Plain. With snow levels around 5500 feet or so, snowfall accumulations will be limited to mainly the higher terrain with the primary focus area being the eastern highlands.
In addition to this, may also see a bit of flurries/light snow linger along Hwy- 14 and the Buffalo Ridge. Otherwise, look for Friday to start of on a notably cooler note, as low in the 20s coupled with breezy winds result in wind chills in the single digits to lower teens. However, with such a dry layer still present in the lowest levels of the atmosphere, am not too inclined to believe we will see much in the way of anything reaching the sfc.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Deep, and now fully occluded, low pressure continues to work slowly east into the arrowhead of Minnesota early this afternoon.
Strong winds and gusts will weaken overnight as a low pressure system moves out of the area and the pressure gradient decreases. 12z models continue to move a low pressure system through the region. While the timing is rather similar, there continues to be differences in the low track and the amount of moisture that the system produces. Another low pressure system will move through the region. Overall, this system looks to be warmer than its predecessor.
858 AM PDT Thu Apr 14 2022 Slightly warmer temperatures are in store today and Friday under mostly clear skies.
Dry and cool air will be advected in briefly as a high pressure develops and slowly moves east across the TN Valley today through Friday afternoon. The high pressure will move over the state by Friday morning with easterly low and mid level flow allowing for warmer and more moist air to begin advecting into the state.
1215 PM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022 The strong upper level low the brought stormy and wet weather to our region will continue to exit northeast as its influence begins to wane over our area. A weak cold front will push southward through the region Friday afternoon keeping central Kansas cooler in the mid 60s.
The first associated cold front producing a leading fine line of gusty showers has exited east. In the colder valleys across the southern coalfields this could yield some patchy frost with dew points marginally below freezing and surface temperatures in the mid 30s, although with minimal impacts to early vegetation expected, do not plan to hoist any frost highlights for tonight. A pleasant day is expected for Friday with warm, dry weather in place courtesy of high pressure at the surface and southwesterly flow. High temperatures are expected to be slightly above normal, around the upper 60s to 70s for the lowlands and 50s to 60s for the higher elevations. A low along the upper levels continues to pass well north of the area as its associated trough crosses the region.
248 PM EDT Thu Apr 14 2022 The recent spring warm surge will come to an end today as a cold front sweeps across central PA. Showers will accompany the cold front from west to east with a threat for strong to potentially damaging thunderstorm wind gusts confined to the eastern portions of the middle and lower Susquehanna Valley. Temperatures will trend cooler toward seasonal averages with a showery start to the weekend.
330 PM EDT Thu Apr 14 2022 The recent spring warm surge will come to an end today as a cold front sweeps across central PA. Showers will accompany the cold front from west to east with a threat for strong to potentially damaging thunderstorm wind gusts confined to the eastern portions of the middle and lower Susquehanna Valley. Temperatures will trend cooler toward seasonal averages with a showery start to the weekend.
Highs ranging from the low to high 70s are expected across the region. Overnight lows will be warmer than before, with some light winds and scattered clouds keeping lows in the 40s and 50s. Another round of potential fire weather conditions is expected for Friday, as southerly winds increase ahead of an approaching cold front and dry air continues to bring single digit relative humidities into western Oklahoma and portions of western north Texas. The expected cold front will begin to enter into northwest Oklahoma in the afternoon on Friday.
Todays Red Flag Warning on the Caprock remains in effect until 8pm tonight despite winds on the low end of criteria because of critically dry fuels and RH values in the single digits. Warmer and stronger southwest H85 flow tonight and tomorrow, reacting to surface pressure falls in Kansas, will help lift tomorrows high temperatures around 10-15 degrees higher than today. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for tomorrow from 10am to 8pm as well, given the warmer temperatures, stronger winds and extremely dry fuels persisting until we receive rainfall.
346 PM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022 The upper low, that brought blizzard conditions into the region, is now located over the Boundary Waters and will continue it's eastward progression. Thus placing North Dakota in the wrap around region of the cyclone. However, as the upper low moves east, the pressure gradient will diminish reducing winds. Tonight, low temperatures are forecast to plummet into the low teens for much of the area and single digits for southwestern North Dakota.
443 PM EDT Thu Apr 14 2022 Low pressure of around 992mb has meandered into northwestern Ontario this afternoon, with the U. Thermal profiles aloft support primarily snow to fall, but where temps are running warmer close to the surface, such as in the east, rain could mix in. Thankfully, many are beginning to crest as temps struggle to rise much above the freezing mark today, and the heavier rain that caused it has shut off. Upper Michigan will remain under the influence of broad cyclonic flow into the weekend as a closed upper low continues to rotate over Ontario. But, as the upper low progresses farther northeastward into Ontario tomorrow afternoon, the LES is expected to become lighter.
Southeast Arizona is under a good zonal flow with a high pressure center in Mexico.
Low temperatures may drop below freezing in a few locations this weekend. A cold front was racing across the forecast area early this morning. Winds will diminish overnight as the low moves north and as the low gradually fills.
Behind the system affecting the area today through tonight, warmer temperatures will finally begin to creep into the area.
Though mid/upper level flow looks to remain nearly zonal with little if any signs of short wave activity, a cold front settling south toward the region later Friday and especially Friday evening will encounter rapid moistening from the Gulf Coast States on the back side of high pressure moving off the East Coast.
High temperatures on Friday will vary greatly, ranging from the upper 20s over the snow covered areas of northeastern Wyoming, the Black Hills and northwestern South Dakota, to the lower 40s over far southwestern and south central South Dakota.
/Issued 1248 PM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022/ /Through Tomorrow/ After a chilly start to the day with morning low temperatures ranging from the low 40s along the Red River to near 50 degrees across Central Texas, high temperatures will warm into the mid 70s and low 80s. Highs will range from the low 80s across East Texas to mid 90s across the Big Country.
At the surface, a low pressure system was deepening in lee of the Rockies. Aloft, west/zonal flow is dominating on the backside of a departing mid-latitude cyclone centered over Minnesota. The surface pressure gradient may be just strong enough to maintain the higher gusts for longer than presently expected. Lows should range from the low 20s to near 30. A backdoor cold front should move in from the northeast, bringing cooler weather and northeast winds. That being said, it appears the front should come through with slightly higher moisture content in the air, and with cooler temperatures as well, the humidity should be higher.
1132 AM EDT Thu Apr 14 2022 A cold front moves through the area today. High pressure builds in tonight into Friday with dry weather and cooler temperatures.
Friday will be dominated by building high pressure with a bit of cold advection and northeast winds across the area.
229 PM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022 Dry day across the mid state with pleasant but cooler temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s. Warmer air will arrive tomorrow as winds return to southerly and southwest/westerly flow moves in aloft with a Midwest trough to our northeast.
The most recent radar imagery indicates we are in a downward trend, with a collapsed thunderstorm spreading its cool and stable pancake batter across the nearshore Gulf waters northwest of the Lower Keys. The subtropical ridge will remain across the western North Atlantic for the next few days, reaching west across Florida as a weakened ridge axis. Meanwhile, the split jet diving southeast across the Gulf of Mexico and Cuba will induce an inverted trough over the southeastern Bahamas. The deep layer subsidence will be displaced to our west, while the mid- upper level trough axis will be well to our east.
/issued 813 AM EDT Thu Apr 14 2022/ Broad upper level troughing over the eastern US continues today as an embedded short wave trough moves out of the northeast Gulf of Mexico and across north FL. Atlantic high pressure stretches across the state to the eastern Gulf with a relaxed gradient. An approaching cold front settles into the area tonight. While moisture is limited there is enough for the short wave trough to produce some showers and a tstorms or two across the Nature Coast this morning. Atlantic high pressure generally dominates as a couple of weak fronts slip through.
215 PM EDT Thu Apr 14 2022 A cold front moves through the area today. High pressure builds in tonight into Friday with dry weather and cooler temperatures.
The exception to that will be over the higher mountains where inversions do not form and we'll still be under the influence of moderate to strong westerly flow aloft. Farther east on the plains, a backdoor cold front is expected to sink southwestward during the day, resulting in less wind there. Temperatures will continue to warm with downslope flow and slight warm advection aloft, although the eastern plains may see little change from today behind that backdoor cold front.
Low pressure over eastern Canada and an associated frontal system will bring showers back to the Ohio Valley Friday night. High pressure will ridge in from the southwest tonight providing clear skies. Winds gusts will diminish due to proximity of the high, radiational cooling, and resulting decoupling of the low levels from the stronger winds aloft. The next cold front begins to approach the region late on Friday.
So far UGN has seen the highest gust, to 55kt. The high res guidance does not develop much of anything, perhaps some sprinkles/flurries. Midday then looks mainly dry with additional light rain chances in the afternoon and mainly along and south of I-80 as a cold front begins to move across the area.
Gilstad Upper low that brought heavy snow and blizzard conditions to the region is now currently spinning over northern Minnesota this afternoon, with gusty northwest winds continuing to bring areas of blowing snow over the east. Generally an inch or less of snow is possible onto the lower elevations.
824 PM EDT Thu Apr 14 2022 High pressure builds in behind a departing cold front tonight, and remains in control through Friday.
550 PM EDT Thu Apr 14 2022 A cold front will push offshore this evening.
The forecast looks on track overall with a similar pattern setting up Friday, favoring scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms with the highest chances away from the coast. Weak easterly/southeasterly flow will continue into the weekend as high pressure holds north of Florida behind a weak stalled frontal boundary. Deep moisture south of the stalled boundary will favor chances for mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms, with the highest chances near the coast.
950 PM EDT Thu Apr 14 2022 A cold front will continue to push southeast through the area this evening and tonight, then stall out just to our southeast on Friday, as weak high pressure builds in from the north.
1053 PM EDT Thu Apr 14 2022 High pressure builds in behind a departing cold front tonight, and remains in control through Friday.
Showers will decrease in coverage tonight as a cold front brings in drier air from the west.
/Tonight/ Sfc ridging has shifted E of the region into the Mid-South and Gulf Coast states, with a light ESE bndry lyr wind returning to the area.
High pressure is still building in across the region with lighter winds and clear skies.
Snow accumulation appears to be minimal, but late night/early morning commutes remain threatened by black ice, as temperatures tonight dip in the lower teens and single digits across the region. Behind the system affecting the area today through tonight, warmer temperatures will finally begin to creep into the area.
The upper low, that brought blizzard conditions into the region, is now located over the Boundary Waters and will continue it's eastward progression. Thus placing North Dakota in the wrap around region of the cyclone. However, as the upper low moves east, the pressure gradient will diminish reducing winds. Tonight, low temperatures are forecast to plummet into the low teens for much of the area and single digits for southwestern North Dakota.
1012 PM EDT Thu Apr 14 2022 A cold front will push offshore this evening.
This will allow for efficient radiational cooling tonight, with temperatures dropping down into the low-to-mid 40s by Friday morning. Temperatures are already in the low-to-mid 50s for most of the area, apart from our typically cooler spots which are already in the upper 40s. Another cold front trailing south of low pressure over southern Ontario will head to the SE, moving across the forecast area on Sat afternoon, becoming stationary over central MS/AL/GA Sat evening.
Low pressure over eastern Canada and an associated frontal system will bring showers back to the Ohio Valley Friday night. The next cold front begins to approach the region late on Friday.
Afternoon highs will be much above normal again with temperatures forecast to reach the low-to-mid 80s near the coast and upper 80s to near 90 degrees farther inland.
Upper level low pressure system continues to rotate over northeastern MN, with snow showers continuing to wrap around the backside of the low across our area. The cold air mass and at least some cloud cover will linger into Friday as the upper low pulls off into Ontario. This appears to be more of a hybrid and with thermal profiles and near surface temps below freezing, look for more snow. Therefore, look for temps to stay below freezing for a good part of the area through Mon.
Some areas have already fallen into the 40s with updated low temperatures now in the lower 40s. /issued 334 PM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022/ A beautiful dry day is on tap across the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures in the low to mid 60s. Unfortunately, this wont last for long as a warm front lifts from the south into our area.
303 PM MDT Thu Apr 14 2022 Upper low that brought heavy snow and blizzard conditions to the region is now currently spinning over northern Minnesota this afternoon, with gusty northwest winds continuing to bring areas of blowing snow over the east. Generally an inch or less of snow is possible onto the lower elevations.
The lower level ridge extends further west across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. The lower isothermal layer is enough to squash most shower formation within the forecast area this evening. Forecast soundings indicate the low level inhibitive layer will erode through the night and will open the door to isolated showers. An Atlantic ridge will retreat eastward overnight.
Dry day across the mid state with pleasant but cooler temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s. Warmer air will arrive tomorrow as winds return to southerly and southwest/westerly flow moves in aloft with a Midwest trough to our northeast.
721 PM EDT Thu Apr 14 2022 A cold front moves through the area today. High pressure builds in tonight into Friday with dry weather and cooler temperatures.
A cold front will approach Friday evening, and some lingering convection (generated by the front) over eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas may make it into our northeast counties Friday night. Otherwise, it will be a warm one for Good Friday as high temperatures range from the lower 80s in the east to mid 90s in the west.
The highest totals once again are over the North Bay coastal mountains. The Bay Area is currently in the warm sector of the low pressure system with an associated cold front approaching from the north. As the cold front moves north to south light rain will also move farther south and this will happen through tonight.
/issued 334 PM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022/ A beautiful dry day is on tap across the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures in the low to mid 60s. Unfortunately, this wont last for long as a warm front lifts from the south into our area.