Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THERE IS A FEW EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH IN ARIZONA AND NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO WHICH IS AIDING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA. SNOW IS FALLING OVER THE HIGHWAY 191 SUMMIT BUT SO FAR ONLY SOME LIGHT SLUSH MIGHT BE AFFECTING TRAVEL. UPPER LOW GETTING KICKED OUT OF OUR AREA ON MONDAY BY ANOTHER UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST. EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY TO BE AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AT MANY LOCATIONS. SOUTH OF LEADING EDGE OF BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING.
AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS STRETCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL HELP TO SPREAD EXTENSIVE UPPER MOISTURE AND CIRRUS ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SO WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALOFT AND NOW ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
DRY AND BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TONIGHT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUDS IN PLACE AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS TO START THE DAY MONDAY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS PRETTY BENIGN WITH A GENERAL PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER THE RIDGE WONT BECOME TOO AMPLIFIED AND JUST EXPECTING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH NO PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.
734 PM EDT SUN MAY 8 2016 A FRONT STALLED NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY.
A weak ridge of high pressure has brought plenty of sunshine across the Northern Rockies.
An upper ridge is exiting into eastern Washington this afternoon. With the departure of high pressure and increasing westerly flow aloft, a marine push will penetrate into western Washington on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, a surface cold front/boundary has become better defined this afternoon.
Will have to watch the overnight temps closely in the central zones for some localized freezing temps. Doesn't look quite as good as a couple days ago with some limited moisture hanging around in the lower levels and n-ne wind staying up longer than optimal. Will still lower temps back down to just above freezing in the low lying areas around Casper and Riverton to Lander. Upper 60s to upper 70s across the lower elevations with 45 to 60 in the high country depending on elevations. Wednesday Night THROUGH Tuesday A ridge of the desert southwest continues to bring mostly dry conditions to the area for the early portion of the forecast period.
Next concern will be the diffuse cold front currently located across cen ks mainly from KSLN to KGBD. Ketcham Main concern is heavy rainfall potential today and tonight as the surface cold front drops southeast across the area. The effective cold front is likely to lag and be situated across central Kansas by early afternoon and will become another focus for convection.
301 PM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016 Upper low evident on satellite over North Dakota with west- northwesterly flow over the CWA on the periphery of this low.
300 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 A few showers and thunderstorms have developed in the higher terrain in VA, NC and TN this afternoon. For the longwave pattern, the models all have southeast ridging weakening in the face of a broad trough sliding east through Texas and into the lower Mississippi Valley for the weekend.
This will drag a cold front through the Upper Midwest and should clear much of southern Wisconsin by days end on Wednesday. A moist southerly flow ahead of the cold front combined with weak impulses will result in a good deal of shra/tsra both ahead of the front in the moist environment and along the front. So POPS will be on the high side.
141 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 A dry ridge of high pressure will dominate the region through midweek under a mainly clear sky.
Cloud cover this afternoon has kept temperatures on the lower side today than yesterday. As of 2pm, temperatures have reached the mid to upper 80s with locations in the east topping out in the lower 90s. This is some 3 to 6 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. Dewpoints will rise into the lower 70s and PW values will increase from about 1.
but given the sparse nature expected confidence in convection affecting any single terminal this afternoon and evening is on the low side. trending towards the HRRR which shows warmer temperatures in areas that currently have significantly less cloud cover. This trend will continue through Wed into Wed night as a cold front slowly approaches from the NW.
Precip chances will continue for portions of southwest and south central Kansas tonight as short range models indicate a closed off upper level low shifting eastward across extreme northern Mexico setting up an increasingly difluent flow aloft across the South Plains. Additionally, a few post-frontal showers may develop as far north as the Oklahoma Panhandle and extreme southern portions of southwest and south central Kansas tonight as the closed off upper low approaching the South Plains interacts with the frontal boundary advancing southward into north Texas. The upper trough over the southern Plains on Wednesday will slowly meander east and southeast through Texas.
116 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 A cold front will move into the region today.
Combination of an extremely moist/unstable and a H5 s/w trough advecting across the N CWA and EWX CWA has led to scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon across the inland Coastal Plains and Brush Country /core of storms is along deep layer moisture axis/. and as such I have the highest POPs there.
333 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 An upper level trough, along with the east coast sea breeze has brought showers and thunderstorms to South Florida today, which should continue into this evening. By tomorrow, the 500mb trough begins to weaken.
345 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 High pressure will ridge south into the commonwealth tonight and Wednesday.
339 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 The remnant low pressure of Bonnie will continue to slowly move northeastward away from the region through Wednesday night. A weak cold front could then approach the region late in the week and become stationary this weekend. The remnant low that was once TS Bonnie just offshore near the SC/NC border will continue to move northeast away from the area while a lingering trough stretches southward off the SC coast and then west into Georgia.
631 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 A cold front to our north will drop south across the area this evening. Meanwhile low pressure in North Dakota will move into Ontario forcing the front back across the area as a warm front Wednesday evening.
An upper low to our west will continue to send disturbances our way as low level moisture remains high across the area. As was the case yesterday, convection is expected to form along leftover outflow boundaries and across the higher terrain later today. The upper low moves closer tomorrow so expect much of the same across the area.
The upper level ridge is going to have a major role in continuing to weaken these showers as they move in, so I'm not expecting much in the way of rainfall totals or intensity, but PoPs will increase a bit later this afternoon, especially west of I-65.
330 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 A few showers and thunderstorms have developed in the higher terrain in VA, NC and TN this afternoon.
Precip chances will continue for portions of southwest and south central Kansas tonight as short range models indicate a closed off upper level low shifting eastward across extreme northern Mexico setting up an increasingly difluent flow aloft across the South Plains. Additionally, a few post-frontal showers may develop as far north as the Oklahoma Panhandle and extreme southern portions of southwest and south central Kansas tonight as the closed off upper low approaching the South Plains interacts with the frontal boundary advancing southward into north Texas.
402 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016 Water vapor imagery shows a short wave trough moving into Texas which has allowed for widespread thunderstorm activity from the NW Hill Country through central Texas.
316 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016 Upper low continues to track eastward across the Dakotas this afternoon, and will drag a secondary cold front through the forecast area later this evening. Wednesday: With the upper low continuing its slow track eastward and into the Great Lakes region during the day, anticipating a rapid strato-cu layer developing by mid-day. Again, would not rule out a sprinkle along the Buffalo Ridge, but most of the area will remain dry. Have continued to trend towards cooler guidance values especially across the north where winds will be light throughout the night.
A warming trend remains on track through late week as high pressure builds along the California coast. Inland temperatures will warm into the 80s to 90s by mid to late week while coastal locations remain cooler.
However, the main cold front is currently tracking across central Iowa, with convection lined up nicely along the boundary. The main trends noted since yesterday are a slightly faster cold frontal passage tomorrow, and a bit more phasing with/influence from a southern stream wave as a northern stream wave digs across the area this weekend. The most widespread chances of shower/storms this week will occur tomorrow as a cold front swings through the area.
A well defined upper low over the southwestern US is providing a moist southwesterly flow aloft over Texas and lower Mississippi valley.
Elsewhere will remain dry as strong high pressure begins to build in from the west. High pressure amplifies over the Desert Southwest late this week bringing hot and dry conditions to the region.
For Wednesday and Wednesday night, an upper low currently over southern Arizona will begin to creep into Texas.
Respectable low level moisture, weak to moderate upslope, and upper forcing from the two low pressure systems will combine for a good chance of precip tonight, especially over the eastern mountains and plains. Rose Wed night through Fri an upr level ridge wl be building ovr the SW U. and the forecast area wl be on the front side of this ridge. On Thu, high temps are expected to be around average, and then on Fri highs wl be warmer than average. Sat the upr ridge wl be centered over the Great Basin. On Sun an upper level low is expected to be centered over central CA, while the forecast area wl still be under NW flow aloft. On Mon that upper low is expected to move eastward into srn NV.
140 PM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016 Upper level trough continues to move east today across the northern high plains and into southern Manitoba and Ontario.
WV imagery indicates a closed off upper level low moving eastward across the western Dakotas. Near the surface, a cold front is moving slowly southeast across south central and extreme southern southwest Kansas. SPC mesoanalysis shows this plume and 850 mb moisture transport shifting eastward as the low level veers through the early morning hours. The central High Plains will be under cyclonic flow between a strong upper low over the northern Plains and an upper level trough axis moving slowly out of the Desert Southwest. By tonight the northern Plains low will lift northeast into Quebec while the southwestern trough continues to slowly move into the southern Plains. The upper trough over the southern Plains on Wednesday will slowly meander east and southeast through Texas.
357 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 Dry weather is expected tonight as high pressure travels slowly east. Showers and thunderstorms developing along a slow moving cold front will start to impact the area on Wednesday.
242 PM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016 20Z analysis shows low pressure stacked over northeastern north dakota with a tight sfc pressure gradient on the west side of the low. With the cooler air in place and the decreasing winds and clouds, temperatures will be colder than average tonight. Some areas of the Black Hills may see temperatures fall below the freezing mark overnight. Weak ridging will develop to the west of the forecast area on Wednesday as the low pressure system departs to the east. At the surface, high pressure will settle into the Northern Plains.
Active pattern over the next 24 hours as an upper trough approaches along the U. Otherwise, sfc flow should back over the next 24 hours as a cold front moves through the region. An upper low to our west will continue to send disturbances our way as low level moisture remains high across the area. As was the case yesterday, convection is expected to form along leftover outflow boundaries and across the higher terrain later today. The upper low moves closer tomorrow so expect much of the same across the area.
1254 PM PDT TUE MAY 31 2016 A significant warming trend will take place over the region through the end of the work week as high pressure builds over Central California. Satellite imagery shows the center of the strong anticyclone (high pressure system) now over the North State with the area of dry and subsiding air spreading over a wide swath of the Great Basin and California.
A cold front will increase rain chances for the latter half of the week. Dry and warm weather can be expected Wednesday under slowly eroding high pressure.
Rain chances to steadily increase through the end of the workweek as a longwave trough across the desert southwest begins to shift east.
Cold front at noon extended from near Atlantic to west of Falls City. An upper level low currently moving east/southeast across eastern Montana will continue to slide across the Northern Plains today dragging a trough axis through the Central Plains. At the surface, low pressure was centered over southeast North Dakota with a trailing cold front extending south from the low across eastern South Dakota and into central Nebraska. Will continue to carry chances along the cold front as it pushes eastward through the CWA today and into this evening.
330 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016 Water vapor imagery placed an upper low pressure system in North Dakota with the upper trough extending south into Nebraska. At the surface, the associated cold frontal boundary was oriented to the southeast of our CWA in far southeast Nebraska into eastern KS. The upper trough axis will shift east of the Missouri River early Wednesday, with weak surface ridging settling in during the day. At the onset of the extended Wednesday night, flow across the conus will be split with an upper low pressure system translating into Ontario/upper Great Lakes region and another upper low cutoff from the flow in Texas, with ridging in the desert southwest.
This was expected today and expect it to continue again for Wednesday, but better chances along the western edge of the forecast area as high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will keep most of the area fairly dry. The high pressure over the area will weaken and the shower and storm coverage increases.
258 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 A ridge of high pressure will dominate the region through midweek under a mainly clear sky.
1111 AM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016 Afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity will once again favor the higher terrain with little forcing or moisture available to push them into the lower valleys. Some residual moisture and energy with the exiting southern trough will keep some convective activity over the southern San Juans on Wednesday.
An upper level trough has been parked just east of the Florida peninsula for several days now. The surface pattern is weak, composed of a ridge axis which reaches west across the Central Florida peninsula. The most recent radar scans indicate the second cloud line iteration has commenced across the Lower Keys. Temperatures range from 80 to 90 degrees with dewpoints in the lower 70s.
The slow moving area of low pressure will reach NW minnesota around daybreak. winds will also be gusty out of the southwest to west as much cooler mid level air with 850hPa temps of only a few degrees above Zero C pushes into the region.
At the same time, we are heating up very efficiently this morning, a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday.
700 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 High pressure will ridge south into the commonwealth tonight and Wednesday.
647 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 High pressure will ridge south into the commonwealth tonight and Wednesday.
An upper level low is centered across the northern Mexican state of Sonora/southern Arizona late this afternoon. On Wednesday, the aforementioned upper level low will continue to slowly approach West Central Texas resulting in large scale lift. In addition, a cold front is forecast to slowly move through the area, which may serve as a focus for additional showers and thunderstorms.
A mid/upper level trough was over the southeast U. Atlantic high pressure ridged westward with a relaxed gradient and an axis through central FL. the highest chances are expected inland and in the south. An axis of relaxed high pressure across FL today will provide winds in the 5 to 10 knots range.
As the upper low tracks slowly east today, wrap around moisture will spread south into southwest and south central ND. Rainshowers with embedded non-severe thunderstorms along with much cooler temperatures highlights the short term period. The latest water vapor imagery shows a closed upper low circulating over Jordan, Montana. Much cooler with highs in the mid 50s west to mid 60s James River Valley.
/Issued 317 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/ Plenty of low level moisture combined with several boundaries, including a cold front, instability and turning of winds with height will set the stage for more shower and thunderstorm development today and tonight.
230 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 High pressure will ridge south into the commonwealth tonight and Wednesday.
As of 3 pm, seeing quite a bit of convective cloud cover east of the low, or over most of this FA. Sfc map shows a boundary extending from the low near KMOT, northeast into southern Manitoba, then southeast into portions of NW MN. However with cold temps aloft and the presence of the low, could get a few reports of these about anywhere in central or eastern ND. Most of the high resolution guidance indicates the most activity working into east central ND, then lift it into the northern Red River Valley late. Some of these echoes will linger into Wed as the low progresses ENE. FA should finally be free of this low pressure system by Thu with lighter winds and a little more sun.
/ISSUED / 1050 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016 Morning surface analysis has a cold front pushing through Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle. Any thunderstorm activity today should develop west of Houston within the higher moisture axis.
136 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 A weak cold front moves south of Long Island this afternoon then washes out south of the area.
A cold front will increase rain chances for the latter half of the work-week. Dry and warm weather can be expected Wednesday under slowly eroding high pressure.
Instability will perk up a bit this afternoon with highs climbing back into the upper 70s to low 80s and dew points maintaining in the low to mid 60s.
217 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 Upper level ridge rebuilds for mid week.
Upper low over the Dakotas is wrapping precipitation and wind into our eastern zones this afternoon. However, ridging will be offset by a weak short wave traveling the mean W/NW flow aloft. primarily over the high country on Wednesday. Otherwise, look for less wind and warmer temperatures tomorrow.
/ISSUED 308 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/ Early morning water vapor imagery detected an upper cyclone across the northern Plains. as the aforementioned cold front makes slow progress east. Thunderstorm chances will remain on the high end into Wednesday as the weak cold front and a mid-level shear axis linger across the forecast area. As a weak upper low ejected out of the southwestern states.
This convectively reinforced weak frontal zone may be the focus for a few hit-or-miss thunderstorms this afternoon and evening over far southern and southeast Kansas, but weak forcing in the low and upper levels will preclude widespread activity.
639 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 The remnant low pressure of Bonnie will continue to slowly move northeastward away from the region through Wednesday night. A weak cold front could then approach the region late in the week and become stationary this weekend. The remnant low that was once TS Bonnie just offshore near the SC/NC border will continue to move northeast away from the area while a lingering trough stretches southward off the SC coast and then west into Georgia.
346 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016 Heights will be on the rise through the week as a ridge builds to the west. Temperatures will also be on the rise as the ridge takes hold and drier conditions are also expected for much of the week, especially from the plains states westward. A trough will eventually settle in over the Great Lakes region, taking the more active and wet weather with it. High temperatures on Wednesday will rise into the mid 70s which is a few degrees warmer than Tuesday's highs in the low 70s. Heights will be on the rise as the upper trough lifts further northeast Wednesday Night and is replaced by the first significant ridge of the summer season building in from the west as the week moves along.
May still see a few showers across the northern CWA this evening as precipitation wraps around the back side of the low. High pressure settles in on Wednesday. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 40s northwest to the lower 50s east. High temperatures on Wednesday will range from the mid 60s northeast to the lower 70s southwest.
Have limited POPs to 30 pct as model guidance not suggesting very widespread precip beneath upper ridge and given mediocre precip water values.
340 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 A cold front to our north will drop south across the area this evening. Meanwhile low pressure in North Dakota will move into Ontario forcing the front back across the area as a warm front Wednesday evening.
206 PM PDT TUE MAY 31 2016 High pressure will produce summertime conditions with afternoon highs in the 80s for the Sierra and 90s to near 100 across western Nevada this week.
316 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016 Upper trough axis from 300-250 mb extended from the eastern TX Panhandle southwest to the Davis Mountains. Mid-level moisture has remained more resilient ahead of this trough, mainly over the eastern Permian Basin where numerous diurnal storms are noted. Farther west, subsidence behind the trough should keep convection suppressed to mostly stable Cu, but have inserted a broad mention of isolated storms through tonight as water vapor reveals additional lift and re- moistening upstream within additional cyclonic flow. Unlike recent days, less interference from low to mid clouds should allow for warmer max temps especially on the Caprock.
412 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 H100-H70 anticyclone blanketing the Mid/Deep will begin to interact with the poorly organized t-wave over east Cuba as the latter drifts into the FL Straits. (mod prev disc) Confidence remains high that the underperforming t-wave Invest 99L will push through the FL Straits/Keys this weekend with little increase in the local pressure gradient, then will track up the eastern GOMex, roughly paralleling the west FL coast as the disturbance rounds the wrn flank of the Atlantic ridge.
220 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 High pressure will bring pleasant weather to NY and PA tonight through Saturday.
434 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 High pressure axis moves offshore tonight as a weak cold front slowly drops into the region on Saturday.
(Issued 917 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016) Large upper high still covers much of the sern US which should keep pcpn chances across the cwa on the low side. Barron (Issued 917 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016) Large upper high still covers much of the sern US which should keep pcpn chances across the cwa on the low side.
644 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 High pressure will be nudged eastward on Saturday as a warm front moves northward toward western Ohio Saturday evening.