Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
300 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022 Yesterday's high temperatures reached into the lower 80s and today we should be able to reach and even adding a degree or two in spots, as 925 MB temps progged to reach 22 C, despite moisture increasing through the day. Even so, scattered to numerous showers appear likely over southeast Michigan with the low level convergence.
124 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022 High pressure will continue to influence the weather pattern through Sunday.
1211 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022 The warm front attached to a low pressure system centered over nw MN remains situated across Lake Superior and the Keweenaw this afternoon. These areas have mostly stayed in the cooler 60s. Patchy dense fog over the Keweenaw could lift some in the next few hours as showers moving over the area stir up the low-levels. Upper air pattern will consist of a broad 500 mb trough across the western U. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb closed low off the CA coast embedded in a western U. trough 12z Tue with a ridge across the central U. and a trough in New England. The trough in the western U.
156 AM MDT Sat Sep 17 2022 Current surface map places weak trough across western South Dakota.
The upper ridge has also shifted to our east, so look for the current warming trend to continue this weekend, while a dry, stable air mass gives us clear skies and no rain.
316 AM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022 Our high pressure ridge shifts east this weekend, allowing light return flow southerlies to develop.
250 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022 High pressure will allow dry and seasonal conditions to continue through the weekend.
By Sunday, an upper trough will begin to amplify across the Southern Plains, creating a closed upper high by the beginning of the week.
139 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022 High pressure at the surface and aloft brings dry weather through the weekend, with high temperatures gradually rising above normal Sunday. Guidance shows broad high pressure at the surface, while ridging at H500 level.
352 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022 High pressure builds slowly southward from eastern Canada today, then offshore late today into tonight. The high remains south of the region Sunday.
Morning lows in the low 60s. Today and tonight: Upper ridge over the area, while at the surface, high pressure remains centered north of the region. Afternoon highs climb back into the middle 80s, while overnight lows drop into the low to middle 60s. High pressure shifts a bit to the east Sunday which may result in a bit of a moisture increase, especially towards the Coastal Plain with increasing onshore flow.
Some hints that cooler temps and rain chances returning by end of week, but uncertainty still high. Discussion: Strong upper ridging will begin to take shape over the Arklatex region on Sunday, with a weak trough passing eastward through Minnesota.
(Saturday night through Sunday night) Throughout the short term high pressure behind the cold front from a few days ago begins to shift eastward with another ridge forming behind it. This ridge will be the start of a warming period associated with an anomalously strong ridge for this time of the year leading to above average temps for the foreseeable future.
533 AM MDT Sat Sep 17 2022 Current surface map places weak trough across western South Dakota.
620 AM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022 (Today and tonight) Quiet conditions continue across West Central Texas with upper level high pressure parked across the area.
In the low levels we have a ridge situated across the southeast U. In the mid levels a cut-off low can be seen on water vapor imagery moving souteast along the west coast of Florida. The combination of the low and mid level features has given rise to the recent bout of convection across the extreme southeast Gulf. Gentle to moderate easterly breezes will prevail this afternoon through Sunday night, as high pressure moves across the Southeastern United States and into the western Atlantic.
TFJ An area of scattered showers was moving through NE Montana early this morning associated with a warm front. A short wave ridge will move from the west today and clear skies from west to east during the day today. The ridge will keep skies mostly clear tonight and most of Sunday and bring a warm day to the region on Sunday.
523 AM MDT Sat Sep 17 2022 Current surface map places weak trough across western South Dakota.
A very flattened upper level ridge extends from northern Mexico to the Carolinas. Easterly flow along the southern periphery of this ridge continues to transport moisture right along the northern Gulf of Mexico. Moving into Sunday, upper ridge center will begin amplifying over northeast TX and southern OK.
Ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface wedged into the region from the northeast, will continue to promote warm quiet conditions across the forecast area today. By Sunday, an upper trough will begin to amplify across the Southern Plains, creating a closed upper high by the beginning of the week.
541 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022 High pressure will maintain dry weather with above normal temperature through most of the weekend.
1029 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022 High pressure builds slowly southward from eastern Canada today, then offshore late today into tonight. The high remains south of the region Sunday.
Upper ridge over the area, while at the surface, high pressure remains centered north of the region. Afternoon highs climb back into the middle 80s, while overnight lows drop into the low to middle 60s. High pressure shifts a bit to the east Sunday which may result in a bit of a moisture increase, especially towards the Coastal Plain with increasing onshore flow.
638 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022 (Today and tonight) Upper level high pressure dominates the weather pattern today leading to another pleasant day.
642 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022 High pressure will allow dry and seasonal conditions to continue through the weekend.
557 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022 High pressure builds slowly southward from eastern Canada today, then offshore late today into tonight. The high remains south of the region Sunday.
811 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022 High pressure will maintain dry weather with above normal temperature through Sunday.
1024 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022 High pressure will allow dry and seasonal conditions to continue through the weekend.
736 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022 High pressure builds slowly southward from eastern Canada today, then offshore late today into tonight. The high remains south of the region Sunday.
Weak troughing and dry westerly flow continues across southeast Arizona.
More widespread convection will be possible later tonight as the low level flow strengthens across the area and another low amplitude impulse arrives from the west. Boxell (Issued 300 AM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022) Today through Sunday: Low pressure will continue to move slowly northeast through the northern Plains. The low level flow becomes more westerly on Sunday with the better forcing shifting to the east.
650 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022 High pressure will extend into central North Carolina into the upcoming week.
Southwest wind has a better chance of holding up in the 5 to 10 knot range tonight as low pressure organizes in the upper Midwest. Yesterday's high temperatures reached into the lower 80s and today we should be able to reach and even adding a degree or two in spots, as 925 MB temps progged to reach 22 C, despite moisture increasing through the day. Even so, scattered to numerous showers appear likely over southeast Michigan with the low level convergence.
Long wave trough along the West Coast as 553 DM low over B.
644 AM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022 (Today through Sunday) Across the country this early this morning shows weak high pressure across the northern Gulf area from Texas over into the southern Appalachians with a deep upper trough approaching the Pacific NW. This trough out west will continue to dig south, which in turn will build the ridge over Texas this weekend and lead to a hot and dry weather pattern.
Dry conditions continue into much of the upcoming week as a dome of high pressure expands across the Southeast. As of 130 PM Saturday: Large upper-level anticyclone centered over the Southern Plains will be the dominant weather feature in the short term. The forecast area will be on the eastern side of the high, keeping things dry and suppressed. A dry cold front will approach from the north, but is expected to wash out just north of the area.
An amplifying high pressure system over North Texas will not be enough to offset a low level moisture surge into the Permian Basin tomorrow. The clouds will dissipate in the afternoon leaving temperatures a degree or two cooler than today.
(This afternoon through Sunday Night) Dry weather continues to be the story as high pressure develops aloft off to our southwest. Right now, models are keeping the convection in IL/IN/KY Sunday afternoon, and does not look to make it to the mid state largely thanks to that high pressure off to our southwest.
The primary time frame for thunderstorms to occur is around 09z - 18z Sunday as they dissipate with the low level jet. Ridging in the southern Plains will amplify as an upper trough on the west coast deepens. Convection is expected to initiate along the front, with the highest severe potential in northeast Missouri and west-central and south-central Illinois late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
An upper low off the California coast and another upper low over British Colombia is going to lead to quasi-zonal flow over the Northern Plains this week.
Weak high pressure ridging has moved over the forecast this afternoon resulting in mostly sunny skies. HiRes models show this activity moving out onto the lower elevations late this afternoon into this evening, mainly along and south of a Livingston-Billings-Sheridan line.
1227 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022 High pressure over the region moves offshore late today into tonight. The high remains south of the region Sunday.
Attendant ewd cold frontal progression a bit slower per 12Z consensus. Nevertheless ewd bound of more vigorous low level theta-e ridge does advect in with modest low level forcing to support going low chc pops. However far better forcing expected Sun night as upper trough/sfc boundary pivot east. Nrn extent of staunch mid level ridge cntrd over TX will shunt swd mid week in response to intense wave wrapping up through se Canada. Some showers likely with cold frontal passage late Wed and within following chilly airmass Thu.
230 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022 Persistent high pressure keeps the area under dry and warm conditions through the weekend. High pressure remains dominant keeping dry weather in our forecast through Sunday evening. Today's highs will be in the mid 80's for the lowlands and upper 70's for the higher elevations. Lows overnight dropping back to the low 60's for the lowlands and low 50's in the mountains. On Sunday expect high temperatures in the mid to upper 80's for the lowlands and mid to upper 70's for the mountains.
(Sunday through Saturday) Near record to record heat will be the main concern weather-wise across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Sunday into mid-week as an upper level ridge builds overhead.
301 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022 (This evening through Sunday) No major changes expected in the short term forecast as high pressure reigns supreme. Expecting highs to reach into the mid to upper 80s and lows in the low to mid 60s through today and tomorrow.
Seasonal temperatures will continue with highs in the lower to mid 90s across the area and lows in the 70s.
1219 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022 (Today and tonight) Quiet conditions continue across West Central Texas with upper level high pressure parked across the area.
257 PM MDT Sat Sep 17 2022 Scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms have developed over the high country moving northeastward onto the adjacent plains. An upper level ridge continues to build into the Colorado from the south Saturday. It will be a bit warmer for the high country as well with highs in the 60s to low 70s for the foothills/mountain valleys and and 50s for most of the mountains.
In the low levels a broad area of high pressure sits across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast U. On the southern periphery of this high is an undulation, causing a weak inverted trough. This inverted trough remains anchored across the extreme southeast Gulf of Mexico.
North of the front across western and north central NE, a moist easterly flow will exist in the lower levels. The highest POPs of 40-50 percent will be across north central NE to the west of Valentine and Thedford. On Sunday, a chance for morning showers across the north central as a backdoor cold front brings cooler highs to the area. Went cooler than the previous forecast from 75 to 80 north central and central NE, to the upper 80s far southwest NE.
A mid-level low pressure system will continue to spin off the Northern California coast today.
131 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022 High pressure over the region moves offshore late today into tonight. The high remains south of the region Sunday.
A cold front is draped to the south and west from roughly Aberdeen to Pierre to the Black Hills. If an updraft or two can break through this warmer air, could see a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms in the 6-10 pm period, capable of producing quarter size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. Temperatures will be a bit cooler in the wake of tonight's cold frontal passage with afternoon highs mainly in the 70s.
/13 (Now through Sunday) An upper ridge will remain over the area through the weekend. The ridge amplify on Sunday causing increased subsidence across the area. The surface ridging along the East Coast will also nudge further south on Sunday causing drier air to gradually filter back into the area from the northeast.
104 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022 High pressure will maintain dry weather with above normal temperature through Sunday.
Upper ridge over the area, while at the surface, high pressure remains centered north of the region. Mostly clear tonight although some high clouds may advect inland from a weak coastal trough. Afternoon highs climb back into the mid to upper 80s and lows in the low to mid 60s most areas. Thanks to the northerly flow aloft, PWAT's will remain below 1" and hence why PoP's are less than 10% across the area despite a broad area of low pressure off the GA coast. High temps again in the upper 80's with overnight lows a bit warmer than the past few, in the mid 60's.
145 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022 High pressure will allow dry and seasonal conditions to continue through the weekend.
High pressure centered over the Appalachians will keep surface flow out of the east and southeast this afternoon with only fair weather cumulus expected as PWATs remain under 1 inch. Our warming trend will continue once again today as heights begin to increase as the upper ridge to our west builds in across much of the Gulf Coast region. The upper ridge will start to take control across the southern half of the U. A significant heat ridge will build eastward this upcoming week, peaking across Alabama in the Wed/Thu time frame.
435 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022 High pressure will maintain dry weather with above normal temperature through Sunday.
In the warm sector ahead of the cold front, satellite imagery indicates a cu field, while mesoanalysis indicates MLCAPE and effective shear increasing.
An upper level ridge is forming over Texas and will build in over the rest of the period.
1223 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022 Ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface wedged into the region from the northeast, will continue to promote warm quiet conditions across the forecast area today. By Sunday, an upper trough will begin to amplify across the Southern Plains, creating a closed upper high by the beginning of the week.
Upper level high pressure over Central Texas will begin to strengthen and expand over West Texas tonight and tomorrow as a strong closed upper level low in the Pacific Northwest moves due south. Current water vapor imagery depicts dry air aloft over West Texas and this will remain the case throughout the period as the high pressure dominates the pattern.
This will limit how much of the low level shear that updrafts can tap into and further reduce the chance for tornadic development. Following Sunday, thermal ridging will build to our south and result in warm temperatures to kick off the week.
352 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022 High pressure ridges into the region from the Mid Atlantic Coast through Sunday.
Some hints that cooler temps and rain chances returning by end of week, but uncertainty still high. Discussion: A strong ridge centered near TX/AR will be in place early to mid week. By mid to late week a trough will dip into the region from the north. At the surface, high pressure over the Southeast will erode by mid week as a front moves through.
An elongated area of low pressure is currently in place across western Kansas, with a dryline stretched from southwest Kansas through northeast New Mexico. Fairly strong southwesterly flow aloft across the Central & Southern Plains all downstream from a large amplitude trough off the U. The GFS is perhaps the most aggressive model with temperature and late afternoon heating alone breaking the cap for surface based moisture lifting, while the other models may be more cooler biased in holding the cap. Will keep storm POPs in the forecast across northern Oklahoma through this afternoon with the highest POPs across northwest Oklahoma. Although the higher severe threat will be more toward the Upper Midwest, could see some of these storms produce strong to marginally severe wind gusts as DCAPE values and Inverted-V forecast soundings support this.
123 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022 Persistent high pressure keeps the area under dry and warm conditions through the weekend. Dry conditions continue through tonight as high pressure prevails. A few clouds pass overhead today as the upper level ridge flattens out with a disturbance in the flow aloft moving out of the midwest. Temperatures will be similar to yesterday in the lower to mid 80s across the low lands and in the mid to upper 70s across mountains. Patchy valley fog will be limited tonight as the ridge center moves east of the mountains and low pressure begins to advance from the plains.
(This evening through Sunday Night) Seeing scattered inland showers this afternoon and will likely see isolated thunderstorms as well with temps in the lower to mid 90s. High temps will begin to creep up a degree or so tomorrow as the mid/upper ridge gets established N/NW of the region.
Temperatures across the lower deserts will continue to run near normal with highs ranging between 98-103 degrees while overnight lows outside of the urban corridors will range in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. This feature will cause the western CONUS trough to amplify and become a closed low off the central and northern California coast by Sunday while the subtropical-ridge amplifies across the southern Great Plains.
(This evening through Sunday) An upper level ridge will remained centered over North Texas through the next 24 hours, resulting in above normal temperatures and dry conditions. Expect overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with highs in the low to mid 90s.
1250 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022 (Today through Sunday) Across the country this early this morning shows weak high pressure across the northern Gulf area from Texas over into the southern Appalachians with a deep upper trough approaching the Pacific NW. This trough out west will continue to dig south, which in turn will build the ridge over Texas this weekend and lead to a hot and dry weather pattern.
238 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022 A dry, pleasant afternoon is in progress with temperatures running in the low to mid 80s. Steering flow aloft veers northwesterly on Sunday as the upper level ridge amplifies over the southern Plains. Expect the cold front to light up late Sunday across eastern Iowa and northern Illinois.
1158 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022 Persistent high pressure keeps the area under dry and warm conditions through the weekend. Dry conditions continue through tonight as high pressure prevails. A few clouds pass overhead today as the upper level ridge flattens out with a disturbance in the flow aloft moving out of the midwest. Temperatures will be similar to yesterday in the lower to mid 80s across the low lands and in the mid to upper 70s across mountains. Patchy valley fog will be limited tonight as the ridge center moves east of the mountains and low pressure begins to advance from the plains. Upper level ridging flattens for the end of the weekend ahead of a weak disturbance to open up the work week.
In advance of attendant cold front, surface dewpoints increase into middle/upper 60s afford MLCAPE on order of 1500-2000 J/kg for chance late day thunderstorms, primarily northwest quarter CWA.
High pressure centered over the Appalachians will keep surface flow out of the east and southeast this afternoon with only fair weather cumulus expected as PWATs remain under 1 inch. Our warming trend will continue once again today as heights begin to increase as the upper ridge to our west builds in across much of the Gulf Coast region. The upper ridge will start to take control across the southern half of the U.
152 PM MDT Sat Sep 17 2022 A warm front was struggling to move NE through the CWA today but rainshowers over the NE zones were finally pushing out this afternoon and allowing clearing from the SW. An upper trough digging south along the West coast today will help keep NE MT unsettled over the next several day.
1114 AM MDT Sat Sep 17 2022 Current surface map places weak trough across western South Dakota.
Clearing skies tonight, in the wake of the rain showers from earlier today will provide decent surface moisture and could easily form into fog overnight, especially in the lower elevation areas where the moist air is expected to settle. ---BMickelson Previous discussion: A warm front was struggling to move NE through the CWA today but rainshowers over the NE zones were finally pushing out this afternoon and allowing clearing from the SW. An upper trough digging south along the West coast today will help keep NE MT unsettled over the next several day.
952 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022 High pressure will allow dry and seasonal conditions to continue through the weekend.
Low temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 60s with light/vrb winds. (This evening through Sunday) No major changes expected in the short term forecast as high pressure reigns supreme. Expecting highs to reach into the mid to upper 80s and lows in the low to mid 60s through today and tomorrow.
Lows by daybreak Sunday morning should range a category or so milder, in the low/mid 60s.
A dry, pleasant afternoon is in progress with temperatures running in the low to mid 80s. Steering flow aloft veers northwesterly on Sunday as the upper level ridge amplifies over the southern Plains. Expect the cold front to light up late Sunday across eastern Iowa and northern Illinois.
639 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022 (This evening through Sunday Night) Seeing scattered inland showers this afternoon and will likely see isolated thunderstorms as well with temps in the lower to mid 90s. High temps will begin to creep up a degree or so tomorrow as the mid/upper ridge gets established N/NW of the region.
Upper ridging has yet to develop, so subsidence has been weak. An upper ridge will quickly develop tonight and early Sunday morning over North Central Texas before rapidly strengthening during the daytime. Strong subsidence from this ridge should limit, if not completely suppress, any convection on Sunday. The strong upper ridging should also bring temperatures a few degrees higher. Most locations will warm into the lower to mid 90s while peak heat index values should range into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees F.
710 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022 High pressure will allow dry and seasonal conditions to continue through the weekend.
(This evening through Sunday) No major changes expected in the short term forecast as high pressure reigns supreme. Expecting highs to reach into the mid to upper 80s and lows in the low to mid 60s through today and tomorrow.
912 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022 High pressure ridges into the region from the Mid Atlantic Coast through Sunday.