Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Warmer temperatures will return later this week as deep-layer ridging sets up over the southeastern states. As of 300 AM: Ohio Valley high pressure maintains quiet weather across the CWFA. Skies are clear across the area except for some cirrus over the lower Piedmont, associated with a jet streak over the SE Coastal Plain. Thus max temps in the Piedmont are slightly cooler. The high builds east tonight which reduces the gradient enough to calm winds in many areas. Mins accordingly will be a bit cooler. As of 135 AM EDT Tuesday: Weak upper trough slides east across the area through the period.
247 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 Dry high pressure with cool mornings and warm days. High pressure in control with dry conditions.
Dry Saturday night as well with weakening high pressure moving east.
However, the area will remain in a broad upper trof aloft.
915 PM CDT Fri Sep 1 2017 Overall forecast on track with dry conditions with cooler lows in the upper 50s to upper 60s.
1051 PM MDT Fri Sep 1 2017 A weak trough continues to weaken and slide south and east of the central Rockies this Friday afternoon. Southwestern Colorado still appears to be holding on to a bit more moisture along and behind the decaying trough per SPC Mesoanalysis and a few showers have formed along the Continental Divide, aided by slightly stronger westerly flow aloft. Dry air will continue to move southward as high pressure builds in from the west.
This will allow temperatures to warm into the lower 80s.
/issued 245 PM CDT Fri Sep 1 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday night): With the deeper H5 trough departing to the east coast, Deep South Texas will remain in variable midlevel flow, between ridges and troughs.
Water vapor shows massive upper ridge building through the western CONUS, with surface analysis placing frontal boundary across the central Dakotas. Upper ridge will bring very warm and dry conditions to the region through the weekend, with main concerns being fire weather (see fire weather discussing below).
The remnants of Harvey continue to move northeast across the lower Ohio Valley this afternoon. A trailing upper level trough will also gradually lift out through Saturday with an associated sfc boundary washing out over the area. This area will be where the highest rain chances will be with isolated chances tonight and isolated to scattered coverage expected Saturday afternoon.
Otherwise expect somewhat cooler temperatures tomorrow as surface flow becomes more easterly rather than southeasterly.
High pressure to the NW of Illinois will slowly build into IL late tonight, providing clear skies for central Illinois west of I-57. The circulation is resulting in gusty winds of 20-30 mph, which will diminish this evening as the low continues to weaken. As the low pulls out on Saturday and winds shift around to the west, temperatures will reach the mid to upper 70s.
Models are still showing an upper level trough dropping into North Texas tomorrow night though a significant change is a stronger ridge over the southern Plains pinching the trough off from the westerly flow and retrograding it back to the southwest earlier than previous model runs.
Back edge of upper trof moving across southern and eastern portions of CWA this afternoon with drier and subsident airmass moving into Northern Colorado. Mainly clear skies tonight with cooler overnight lows. The upper ridge will continue to build over the Great Basin on Saturday with warmer temperatures and mainly dry conditions over Colorado.
Relatively dry high pressure and a light northerly flow will remain in place through the weekend, however a few isolated showers and storms will be possible, but mainly across the southern zones.
Latest guidance suggests very long periods associated with tropical cyclone Irma may begin Mon night or Tue with periods in the 15-17 second range.
and locales west of Highway 25 seeing west-northwest or a transition to it from variable conditions due to passage of the trough axis. strong H5 ridging over the western portion of the country.
Overnight lows to range in the low to mid 50s. On Saturday, height rises aloft from a strong upper ridge in the western U.
733 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017 Tonight and Saturday will be mainly dry and cool as high pressure resides over the region.
Upstream observations support a fairly widespread but light rain across the area, therefore will continue with the higher POPs, especially across the north closer to the mid level support. Saturday Night Through Friday Low amplitude upper flow this weekend will amplify during the upcoming week, with a sharp ridge developing over western NOAM and a trough over the central CONUS. Some lingering precipitation is possible Saturday evening as a mid level trough axis passes east of Wisconsin and a surface cold front continues to move away from the state.
As the mid level thermal ridge starts to move back over our area, temperatures are also on the rise and coupled with increasing sunshine should see highs in the middle to upper 80s on Saturday. Lows tonight are still forecast in the lower 60s, possibly a degree or two warmer given overnight cloud cover.
The low-levels are quite dry and so the weak echos on radar are mostly yielding non measurable precipitation, with the one exception being 0.
851 PM CDT Fri Sep 1 2017 Very quiet under the ridge axis tonight. Lows in the mid to upper 40s still looks good for tonight, a little warmer near Lake Michigan.
Precipitation chances are expected to remain slim as we remain on the eastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge centered over the Rockies/Central Great Basin areas.
Current radar shows a few low- intensity showers and thunderstorms along the Coconino Plateau and Mogollon Rim, gradually developing southwest toward the lower elevations. Given the position of the strong high pressure circulation over the western United States, we expect that northward movement of moisture associated with Lidia will be limited.
1010 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017 A cold front will remain stalled out across North Carolina overnight, then lift back to the north and west as a warm front early Saturday.
There is also some large scale ascent across the area from a vort max that is lifting northward out ahead of a trough dug in over the southeast states. High pressure ridge over the Atlantic is shown providing about a 10 knot southerly wind flow.
There may be some patchy fog underneath the high pressure ridge in northeast NE late tonight as well.
626 PM CDT Fri Sep 1 2017 The Northland was between high pressure off to the east with a trough of low pressure and frontal boundaries over the Northern Plains into Manitoba this afternoon. Additional development will be possible during the day with steep lapse rates over far northern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin combined with the upper trough. Clouds will keep temperatures warmer tonight for most areas with lows from the upper forties across Price/southern Iron Counties.
1115 PM CDT Fri Sep 1 2017 Main forecast concerns in the short-term are on chances for rain showers late tonight through Saturday morning then focuses turns to the low chances for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. How widespread any showers would be on the leading edge of the moisture transport is in question since the lower levels of the atmosphere are fairly dry. Afternoon MUCAPE values look to increase into the 500 to 1000 J/kg range ahead of the cold front. At this time confidence was high enough to add a slight chance of thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon across Clark and Taylor Counties, closer to the stronger forcing from the trough.
BMickelson Previous short term discussion: High pressure is once again building over the western CONUS and Canada. Dewpoints have rebounded some today, but as the ridge continues to move over the area drier conditions will prevail. With that being the case, elevated fire weather conditions due to the low relative humidities are a concern through Saturday, but the relatively light winds will be a limiting factor.
707 PM CDT Fri Sep 1 2017 Trough continues advancing eastward, with a narrow zone of moisture and precip from Lake of the Woods to eastern Nebraska. Models have been pretty consistent in maintaining the modest strength of the upper trough, but system is somewhat disjointed, and total moisture actually lessens as it moves east.
The lower temps over northeast portions Saturday will make it difficult to warm much more than the mid 80s there.
Convection associated with a weak lee trough digging into the Southern Plains should remain north of the region tomorrow night. Weak mid and upper level ridging will begin to breakdown over the weekend as the longwave pattern becomes higher amplitude, with a sharp ridge over the Western States and a deep trough over the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys.
The circulation is resulting in gusty winds of 20-30 mph, which will diminish this evening as the low continues to weaken. As the low pulls out on Saturday and winds shift around to the west, temperatures will reach the mid to upper 70s.
815 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017 A stalled west to east frontal zone across central NC will lift north as a warm front late tonight as Harvey's remnants track slowly northeast into Ohio Valley. A cold front will move slowly west to east through the area on Saturday.
Main cold front/NW Wind shift approaching Langdon and Devils Lake at 2030 UTC. Low clouds holding in the Red River valley ahead of the cold front and preventing much heating ahead of the front.
A weak upper level trough will swing south and approach West Central Texas on Saturday. This is supported by most of the high resolution models, and slight chance to low end chance PoPs were included for these areas. Highs will be near seasonal normals, in the low to mid 90s.
High pressure will remain in place through the weekend trapping the smoke over the region. Broad upper high will move east across southern Oregon and southern Idaho tonight through Saturday night, then center itself over Utah several more days. Ridge will bring clear, hot, and dry weather to our CWA.
Otherwise VFR will prevail through this TAF package and no convection mentioned as moisture remains limited and confined primarily to the lower levels. Relatively dry high pressure and a light northerly flow will remain in place through the weekend, however a few isolated showers and storms will be possible, but mainly across the southern zones.
A second area of weak low pressure will move across Lake Erie Saturday night.
The low level flow southerly over most of the Great Valley and also westerly over Southeast Tennessee leading to some drying in the first few thousand feet off the surface.
The latest NHC Advisory #13A showed Lidia currently moving up the western coastline of Baja California Sur, gradually weakening as it interacts with mountainous regions and cooler Pacific waters.
1004 PM CDT Fri Sep 1 2017 Trough continues advancing eastward, with a narrow zone of moisture and precip from Lake of the Woods to eastern Nebraska. Models have been pretty consistent in maintaining the modest strength of the upper trough, but system is somewhat disjointed, and total moisture actually lessens as it moves east.
Meanwhile a mid level shrtwv trof/50kt jet at 5h will drop s thru Panhandle Sat AM pushing a weak cold front s that will near the nrn CWFA. Low level mstr pooling near front/daytime heating and said shrtwv trof/jet will favor isold-slght chc PoPs, mainly after 00Z/Sun across the far e. As shrtwv trof/jet moves s into Sun it will get caught within ely steering flow and move sw-w Sun PM favoring isold-slght chc PoPs in the far e-sw CWFA into Sun evening. Next cold front will quickly drop s thru the plains, probably arriving along the I-20 corridor around 18Z Tue. Noticeably cooler in wake of front on Wed and following mornings as dwpnts potentially fall to around 40.
High pressure is then expected to build across Missouri.
High pressure remains over the area, represented by clear skies and low dewpoints which are in the 40s.
518 PM MDT Fri Sep 1 2017 Water vapor shows massive upper ridge building through the western CONUS, with surface analysis placing frontal boundary across the central Dakotas. Upper ridge will bring very warm and dry conditions to the region through the weekend, with main concerns being fire weather (see fire weather discussing below).
/Issued 210 PM CDT Fri Sep 1 2017/ An upper level trough will sweep southeast across the Panhandles tonight. However, a strong upper level short wave trough will dive southward through the central and eastern U.
Models remain in good agreement with scattered thunderstorms redeveloping late this afternoon/early tonight ahead of an upper level trough that will be crossing western Kansas between 00z and 09z Saturday. As this upper level trough passes the chance for precipitation will end from northwest to southeast between 06z and 12z Saturday.
A rather drab extension of high pressure will linger over the Florida peninsula overnight before being nudged eastward through late this weekend.
806 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017 Tonight and Saturday will be mainly dry and cool as high pressure resides over the region.
Drier weather will move into Central Alabama during Saturday as high pressure takes over in the wake of Harvey's moisture departure to the northeast.
Otherwise, drier and warmer air will move in tonight and Saturday under a building upper ridge. From Saturday night through Friday, the forecast flow pattern continues to be upper ridging west of this cwa, upper troughing east of it (or some derivation there of).
/issued 301 PM CDT Fri Sep 1 2017/ A short wave trough seen on water vapor imagery is currently over the Rockies, sitting between two upper level ridges. This short wave will continue to move around the eastern most ridge tonight. A minor upper level jet max will develop on the downwind side of the trough when the short wave emerges from the Rockies later today. Unfortunately, most of the lift associated with this trough will be directed over the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and will only skirt the FA. A western CONUS ridge will intensify bringing extreme heat to the western United States. On the other side of the country, a deep long wave trough will dig into the eastern CONUS.
1248 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2017 High pressure will cross the region Saturday.
605 PM CDT Fri Sep 1 2017 Main forecast concerns in the short-term are on chances for rain showers late tonight through Saturday morning then focuses turns to the low chances for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. How widespread any showers would be on the leading edge of the moisture transport is in question since the lower levels of the atmosphere are fairly dry. Afternoon MUCAPE values look to increase into the 500 to 1000 J/kg range ahead of the cold front. At this time confidence was high enough to add a slight chance of thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon across Clark and Taylor Counties, closer to the stronger forcing from the trough.
/issued 540 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018/ Main point of concern is a cold front that will move through the terminals late this evening with gusty NNE winds in its wake (sustained at 20-25 knots with higher gusts). This trough will be replaced by stout surface ridging tonight through Sunday following a swift cold frontal passage tonight ahead of NE winds of 20 to 30 mph. The best shot for some light rain may actually unfold later Sunday afternoon with the arrival of a shearing/decaying mid- level trough. However, further drying of the lower levels by this time could result in this scenario being all virga. Even accounting for the overly moist model soundings, thermal profiles would still support some snowflakes at times given 90% or more of the column residing below freezing, but mild 2-meter temps should keep accumulations nil.
A low pressure system will lift into the MS Valley on Sunday and into the TN Valley by Sunday evening.
641 PM EST Sat Mar 10 2018 High pressure will build south into the Central Great Lakes Sunday.
Strong winds and some snow on the backside of the upper trough tracking across the region created very difficult travel conditions in the eastern sections of our CWA today. Nice ridge builds over the region for the start of the week. There is a weak short wave undercutting the ridge through southern Idaho.
710 PM EST Sat Mar 10 2018 A ridge of high pressure over the Great Lakes will push into Pennsylvania tonight and Sunday.
With lows dropping into the lower 30s, any precip overnight will mainly be in the form of light snow.
Otherwise high pressure is keeping the current forecast in good shape for the overnight hours. Proton Previous Discussion: The approaching western upper ridge will dominate the weather for NE MT through mid-week.
A strong cold front currently in the Texas Panhandle will plunge south overnight and be near KHOB by 11/07z and KFST by 11/11z. As a trof passes to our north a sharp cold front will drop south and should pass thru MAF around 10Z and should make it down to the Rio Grande River by 14Z. As would be expected temps tomorrow could be 30 degrees or more cooler than today (normal is 71 for MAF) with overcast skies across the CWA.
802 PM EST Sat Mar 10 2018 A ridge of high pressure over the Great Lakes will push into Pennsylvania tonight and Sunday.
Winds are expected to stay up tonight and into the daytime on Sunday as the surface pressure gradient remains tight with low pressure sliding to our southeast and a 1035 mb high pressure pushing in from the northwest. Cooler air will continue to filter in behind the cold front and highs on Sunday should be 10 to 20 degrees cooler than those seen today.
936 PM EST Sat Mar 10 2018 High pressure will build south into the Central Great Lakes Sunday.
00z KCRP RAOB indicates very dry air aloft which should aid in fog development if the lowest thousand feet can saturate overnight.
Mid level short wave trough will push east of the FL peninsula overnight. A rather broad and messy area of low pressure over the SE CONUS will try to consolidate somewhat as several pieces of energy move through the base of a digging mid level trough, the southern-most of which drops into north Florida and the NE GOMEX by sunset. A temporary surge of south winds this evening is producing a period of Caution conditions as a psuedo warm front lifts north across the area.
High pressure is nosing in central upper MI and northern Lake MI. High pressure moves overhead and then erodes tonight into Sunday.
645 PM EST Sat Mar 10 2018 Lake effect snow showers will taper off this afternoon and tonight, as weak high pressure pushes into the region. Highest at the highest elevations and on already snow covered areas. Roads shouldn't be much affected except for any liquid on them freezing as temperatures fall back into the 20s. A ridge of high pressure at the surface with rising heights aloft will be over the area Sunday and Sunday night with dry weather. High temperatures a tad warmer but still mostly mid and upper 30s. Sunday night cooler with some clearing.
There are suggestions by several computer models that a quick 1 to 2 inches of snow may fall over much of the region later Sunday afternoon and Sunday night as an upper level low crosses overhead. However, other roadways could become slick and hazardous as well, especially if the snow falls quickly enough with temperatures very close to the freezing mark. Most of the precipitation should end shortly after midnight as the low moves off to the southeast.
However, around approx 6z the lowest 100mb should cool enough to allow a shallow layer of moisture to pool under a EML and result in the dvlpmnt of IFR CIGs spreading from E to W across the region by late in the night. Conditions should quickly improve around mid mrng as a cold front pushes SE across the region. Cold front should move through in the heart of the day, between about 9am and 2pm northwest to southeast. This timing certainly make the high temperature forecast difficult. Will see a cooler night Sunday night with lows mainly in the 50s.
Farther west, an inverted trof was moving into the eastern Dakotas. Plenty of clouds were being generated on both sides of the trof. Meanwhile, a compressed closed upper low was moving through western South Dakota. An open upper wave, with this low, was focusing some vorticity into northern Minnesota. There are some model differences with the placement of the best lift, available moisture, and the subsequent placement of pops with the trof. An elongated area of vorticity is progged to follow behind the aforementioned trof. Models are in better agreement with the handling of these features and have small pops along and ahead of the trof.
Satellite water vapor imagery shows a minor 500-hpa trof located across the Dakotas. An 700-hPa baroclinic boundary will move across the FA upstream of this trof. CAA is expected in the wake of this synoptic trof, with cooler 850-hPa temperatures by morning. For tomorrow, continued CAA is expected through the day as cool high pressure builds southward. Highs tomorrow will be much cooler with widespread 40s, except temps around 50F near the Oklahoma border. A large trof is expected to develop across the western United States.
A weak disturbance is trying to move up and over an upper ridge over the region. This system is weakening as it encounters the upper ridge. After that an upper ridge will move over the region again.
648 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018 Lower clouds just above MVFR conditions are expected to move south out of central Oklahoma this evening followed by a cold front that will bring strong and gusty north winds overnight. A cold front will accompany it.
937 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018 Strong convection continues along a warm front to our ne, across central and srn AR. Appears that this will be the trend for a while until additional storms develop along a prefrontal trof later tonight/early Sunday morning. a cold front. Have delayed mention of VCTS a couple of hours A cold front will move South across the Four State Region helping to continue convection into the early to mid morning Sunday, when ceilings will return to MVFR and convection will end as the boundary shift South.
Ceilings are expected to drop to IFR during the overnight hours in advance of an approaching cold front. Will likely maintain POPs through Sunday night especially over eastern areas as additional showers may develop ahead of upper trough axis.
540 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018 Main point of concern is a cold front that will move through the terminals late this evening with gusty NNE winds in its wake (sustained at 20-25 knots with higher gusts). This trough will be replaced by stout surface ridging tonight through Sunday following a swift cold frontal passage tonight ahead of NE winds of 20 to 30 mph. The best shot for some light rain may actually unfold later Sunday afternoon with the arrival of a shearing/decaying mid- level trough. However, further drying of the lower levels by this time could result in this scenario being all virga. Even accounting for the overly moist model soundings, thermal profiles would still support some snowflakes at times given 90% or more of the column residing below freezing, but mild 2-meter temps should keep accumulations nil.
For tonight, we expect skies to clear from west to east as high pressure builds over the area.
806 PM EST Sat Mar 10 2018 Brief high pressure through early tonight.
Another low pressure system will move in from the south tonight and Sunday to bring an increased chance for precipitation, mainly to the southern half of the state.
1146 PM EST Sat Mar 10 2018 A ridge of high pressure over the Great Lakes will push into Pennsylvania tonight and Sunday.
However, another cold front will move south, across West Central Texas, beginning around or just after midnight tonight.
A strong cold front currently in the northern Texas Panhandle will plunge south overnight and be near KHOB by 11/07z and KFST by 11/12z. As a trof passes to our north a sharp cold front will drop south and should pass thru MAF around 10Z and should make it down to the Rio Grande River by 14Z. As would be expected temps tomorrow could be 30 degrees or more cooler than today (normal is 71 for MAF) with overcast skies across the CWA.
648 PM EST Sat Mar 10 2018 Brief high pressure through early tonight.