Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Onset of flat ridging from the west and increasing downslope winds will then yield a dry day today. Fire weather concerns will elevate as RHs fall to the lower teens and ridgetop/mixed winds increase over the Gallatin NF and Beartooth RD. 700mb flow around 25 kts will yield some modestly gusty afternoon winds, and will stress the warmer/drier/breezy day in our morning fire weather forecast. Upslope and convergence along sfc trof may be enough for isolated showers over our western mountains/foothills from 21-03z Sunday. As would be expected, the ensembles showed lots of model spread regarding the pacific trough moving into the area late in the period. The deterministic models also showed differences in trough strength and timing. This period will be monitored to see if the trough slows down, as it often does in high amplitude patterns.
630 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016 The broad sfc patterns shows central to eastern SD and west central MN stuck between high pressure over the northeastern U. and low pressure over Alberta. While the 500MB trough exits east, and more zonal flow with embedded waves will remain overhead.
Instability is steadily increasing today as the cooler temps aloft and warm moist air near the surface both move into the area. with a warm front expected to be draped E-W across SE ND and WC MN by afternoon.
953 AM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016 Warm and dry weather can be expected until late Sunday as high pressure slides across the Upper Ohio Valley Region. Otherwise, high pressure will remain in control today with forecast highs about 10 degrees above average. Return of weak southerly flow along the periphery of the ridge will keep lows a degree or two warmer than last night, despite limited cloud cover.
Latest hi-res model guidance still keeps convection mainly over the high terrain and south of I70, with isolated activity over the plains. A weak ridge will be over Colorado today as a trough moves across the Desert Southwest. This will bring warmer and drier conditions to area. Airmass becomes slightly unstable over the higher terrain and south of Interstate 70. Moisture not that great with perceptible water values of a half inch over the higher terrain to three-quarters of an inch across the plains. Should be enough instability and moisture to trigger isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain and south of I-70. A broad ridge of high pressure will stretch across much of the southern and central u.
1005 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 Easterly flow continues to dominate the H100-H70 lyr acrs central FL this mrng as the peninsula has become sandwiched btwn a deep lyr ridge over the ern CONUS and a weak t-wave centered btwn Cuba and Andros Island. Inverted trof extending from central Cuba to the nrn Bahamas will interact with a broad hi pres ridge over the ern CONUS to maintain the E/NE breeze that has persisted over the past several days.
1035 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 High pressure builds across the Tri-state area for this weekend.
Forrester Previous short term, Upper trof moving east through the northern plains this morning with a few lingering showers in the southeast corner of the state. Dry and warmer weather expected today with the south to southwest downslope flow. Trof and lee low move into the Canadian prairies on Sunday with a cold front dropping into northern Montana.
Temps still look on track with highs in the lower 90s and heat indices reaching the 100 degree or just over in many locations this afternoon.
The broad sfc patterns shows central to eastern SD and west central MN stuck between high pressure over the northeastern U. and low pressure over Alberta. While the 500MB trough exits east, and more zonal flow with embedded waves will remain overhead.
1020 AM MDT SAT AUG 27 2016 The trough that has persisted over the Great Basin the last few days will lift and in its wake, a closed low will form over the four corners region. As the low slowly moves east-northeast, our CWA will remain in a deformation zone which will allow more showers and thunderstorms to form this afternoon and evening. Sunday, the closed low will move across southern portions of our CWA. What appeared to be a mostly dry week is now looking wetter as a low pressure trough deepens over the western states, pushing the ridge of high pressure eastward over the central Plains states.
Another weak short wave trough was seen on water vapor moving through New Mexico and may be able to provide some convective enhancement this afternoon in the absence of any low level forcing. Warmer surface temperatures will garner increased instability as well with mixed layer CAPEs on the order of 500-1000 J/kg. A vigorous mid and upper level low pressure trough was digging through the desert southwest this morning, apparently heading towards the central or southern sections of the Arizona-New Mexico border by late Sunday. Solutions have adjusted significantly eastward with this trough, and likewise were no longer showing any significant westward movement of the broad low pressure system currently deepening along the central Texas coast.
While an upper level low is still forecast to drop south to near Las Vegas, Nevada today, drier air aloft ahead of this low and below average high temperatures will likely limit shower and thunderstorm intensity today and Sunday.
Expect thunderstorms with cooler than normal daytime temperatures to continue this weekend.
A weak area of low pressure moving NE will help lift the front well N of the CWA by this aftn.
1238 PM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016 Warm and dry weather can be expected until late Sunday as high pressure slides across the Upper Ohio Valley Region. Otherwise, high pressure will remain in control today with forecast highs about 10 degrees above average. Return of weak southerly flow along the periphery of the ridge will keep lows a degree or two warmer than last night, despite limited cloud cover.
We'll start the day with clear skies and temps in the low/mid 70s, with mostly sunny/partly cloudy skies by afternoon and temps warming into the low/mid 90s. Some weak upper level energy will round the base of the upper ridge (centered over the Virginias) and enter NE AL late morning/early afternoon. Expect dry conditions area wide overnight with mostly clear skies and lows in the low 70s. Confidence continues to dwindle that is will develop now as the ridge appears to maintain control of the area. The euro still produces a low pressure system in the Gulf and slides it northwest toward Louisiana.
1006 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 A large ridge of high pressure will reside over Pennsylvania through the weekend bringing very warm and mainly dry weather.
753 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 A weak cold front slowly drops south through the region today.
Modest squall line initiated from upper trough moving through the Central Plains was making its way east across north central Kansas early this morning with wind gusts around 35 mph. Expect more sunshine and the lack of early precip to allow for much warmer temps in the north and west today.
Expect thunderstorms with cooler than normal daytime temperatures to continue this weekend. An area of low pressure is centered over far northwestern Arizona this morning. It has been rather active to east through south of the low center with less activity in the center of the low.
S-Swly flow aloft ahead of upr trof movg east across the nrn plains will advect a very moist airmass back across our cwa today. Flow aloft over our area will weaken Sunday as upr trof moves east to Quebec and mid Atlantic ridge expands westward into the OH valley.
The weakly cyclonic envelope of the western half of the low pressure system to our east-southeast will engulf the Keys today and tonight.
Still expecting to see upper 80s to low 90s areawide, with convection developing again in the vc of a weak upper low centered along the TX/LA coast. with isolated to widely sct convection developing this afternoon mainly over E TX/Wcntrl LA N of a weak upper level low pressure system just off the extreme SE TX/SW LA coast. The upper ridge over the mid Atlantic states is driving drier air into the area even now with a boundary of clouds knocking on our back door over NE LA and SE AR. The water vapor shows a weak upper low wrapping up for a landing in the western Gulf and Texas coastal bend which will focus sea breeze activity basically along the I-10 corridor for a while absorbing the tropical connection that has come a gone over us a couple times already this summer.
925 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 High pressure builds across the tri-state area for this weekend.
1009 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 High pressure over the Great Lakes and Ohio valley will drift east today. This will allow low pressure to track east across the northern Great Lakes into Ontario on Sunday dragging a cold front across the region.
With the thermal trough well inland winds are light with stratus and patchy fog over the coastal waters and into the coastal valleys a bit and up to the coastal ranges in Coos and Douglas county.
943 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 High pressure will build across the region today then move to the east Sunday.
1144 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A slow-moving cold front south of Pennsylvania will continue to move further away.
1044 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A slow-moving cold front south of Pennsylvania will continue to move further away.
Upper support lags with upper low still way back west in Montana. Severe threat Saturday afternoon will hinge on location of cold front. Base on timing of FROPA warmest temperatures will be along and east of the valley with cooler readings to the west. Models in good agreement with low pressure system occluding along the Manitoba Ontario border with PCPN wrap-around showers limited to areas along the international border Saturday night.
708 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A cold front will push through the area late tonight and Saturday.
A large upper ridge continues from Texas across the southeast states. Lows tonight will remain muggy, in the low 70s inland to mid 70s along the coast.
744 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 High pressure will continue to provide mostly clear skies and dry conditions into tonight and Saturday.
However, with that said, based on the fact that some valley locations have already fallen into the lower 70s this evening, opted to bump lows downward, especially in the valleys. This should fall under the lower cross over temperatures, but perhaps we may be dealing with a more shallow dense fog layer, more confined to the valleys tonight. Thus, have cut back on fog on the ridges and beefed up the fog wording in the valleys. If temperatures continue to drop off faster than expected, we may end up cooler tonight and thus, a thicker fog layer and more of a need for an advisory. Overall upper level pattern we are expecting to see rising heights as upper level high begins pulling back to the east across.
The cold front is well east of the zones and brisk, west winds have spread through the western zones and into the east. A low pressure trof over Central and Southwest Montana will move into Eastern Montana by Saturday morning.
A thermal trough will strengthen this afternoon and evening.
739 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 High pressure over the Great Lakes will drift to New England Saturday but will continue to influence weather across the region through Saturday.
945 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 After some areas of dense fog tomorrow morning, warmer and dry conditions are expected through the weekend.
Thunderstorms may move into the far northwest sections from the higher terrain of New Mexico. Visible satellite imagery reveals cumulus developing across southwest Texas Panhandle near a weak surface trof. Models in fair agreement with cold front moving into at least the northwest half of the area Saturday evening.
A dry cold front over Central Utah this evening will settle into southern Utah and stall early Saturday.
The main features in the large scale pattern were a fairly impressive trough over the Pacific Northwest and high heights across the southern part of the CONUS. There was weak ridging from the central plains up into Manitoba. Temperatures at 500 mb were as cold as -23C with the closed low over Washington state. Thermal ridge at 700 mb stretched from southern California up into western South Dakota. Activity could also develop over the high plains and move into the area later tonight.
640 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will continue to control the weather across central Illinois tonight. Nearly calm winds initially will become light from the E/SE overnight as the high slowly shifts away and the pressure gradient begins to tighten.
747 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A cold front sinking southward will move into the forecast area tonight. Temperatures will be slightly cooler behind the front over the weekend and it will be a little drier. A mid level cap may develop as upper level ridge builds slightly. although a few weak mid level short waves may rotate south from North Carolina around ridge. Temperatures slightly cooler behind the front although above mos guidance due to cool bias.
Gilchrist The initial longwave pattern across CONUS this evening consists of storm system/upper trough rotating and pushing across the Divide, and an upper ridge moving east across the Central Plains.
High pressure builds in from the north over the weekend.
1245 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 A cold front will drop very slowly south and across the area Saturday.
1041 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 There is a ridge over most of the Plains with a trough on the lee of the Rockies which is heading east. A trough over the Pacific Northwest will move to the Northern Plains on Saturday.
1144 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 VFR conditions will persist as high pressure slowly drifts to the southeast.
550 PM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Upper level trough will continue to track across the northern Rockies today. An associated cold front will enter the far northwest portion of the CWA late this afternoon or early afternoon and slowly push south finally stalling over central part of the forecast area overnight. Gradient relaxes as the upper trough slides east Saturday expect less wind.
Capping remains in place with high pressure holding over the region aloft tamping down any significant convection. Ridge breaks down going into the new work-week with the development of east conus troffing. Feature will be sufficient to advance a cool front/trof into the area with moisture deepening along and ahead of boundary.
Quite a bit of the high resolution guidance is showing the activity west of Minot lifting NE into southern Manitoba. Upper support lags with upper low still way back west in Montana. Severe threat Saturday afternoon will hinge on location of cold front. Base on timing of FROPA warmest temperatures will be along and east of the valley with cooler readings to the west. Models in good agreement with low pressure system occluding along the Manitoba Ontario border with PCPN wrap-around showers limited to areas along the international border Saturday night.
834 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 00Z water vapor and H4 RAP analysis show a broad area of upper level ridging in place over the Florida peninsula this evening. the subtropical ridge axis stretches east to west across the central FL peninsula into the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico. A ridge of pressure from the western Atlantic to the Gulf will meander north and south over FL through the weekend.
1144 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Quiet weather will persist across central and southeast Illinois overnight, with high pressure still in control of the local weather. High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will continue to control the weather across central Illinois tonight. Nearly calm winds initially will become light from the E/SE overnight as the high slowly shifts away and the pressure gradient begins to tighten.
The center of a ridge of high pressure is overhead. /issued 429 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/ Mid to upper level ridge remains entrenched across the Gulf coast region, and will generally remain over the forecast area through the weekend. Subsidence from this ridge will keep rain chances at a minimum.
1008 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A cold front will push through the area late tonight and Saturday.
The 2 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a a broad area of high pressure across much of the Gulf of Mexico, and a weak trough from southeast AL through central GA. Lows will be in the lower to mid 70s.
As the surface cold front moves into the region tonight. Do not expect fog to develop but some low clouds may develop as the cold front moves across the area. Low clouds will not linger for too long as winds will increase behind the cold front early Saturday morning. Expect cooler temperatures for this weekend.
High pressure over the north and central Gulf will sustain a large scale anticyclonic circulation, with generally moderate southeast surface winds locally. /issued 330 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night):Upper level low pressure centered over northeast Mexico will slowly migrate north- northwestward through the period. Increasing upper diffluence associated with the northward progressing upper low will lead to scattered showers with some embedded thunderstorms across the entire Rio Grande Valley mainly in the afternoon on Saturday. As the low moves farther away from deep south Texas Saturday night, showers will end for a dry night.
1215 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather through the weekend. Looking for temperatures to bottom out in the 50s with some 40s across the higher terrain of the southern Adirondacks.
/ISSUED 312 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/ An upper level ridge currently extends from southern New Mexico across North Texas east-southeastward into northern Florida has dominated the weather across North and Central Texas for the last week. A TUTT, Tropical Upper Troposphere Trough, can be seen on satellite imagery northwest of Saltillo /MMIO/ in Coahulia, Mexico.
629 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 There is a ridge over most of the Plains with a trough on the lee of the Rockies which is heading east. A trough over the Pacific Northwest will move to the Northern Plains on Saturday.
With surface dewpoints currently in the 60s to lower 70s across much of the cwa, should prove to be a warm night tonight with a cold front still analyzed back over far western North Dakota down into southeast Montana. A low pressure system and associated frontal boundary will track across the CWA late tonight and Saturday morning.
Temperatures vary throughout the region with the highest heat index values at the current moment occurring just south of the front in locations with less cloud cover and increased dewpoints due to moisture pooling just south of the front.
As the backdoor front pushes our direction from the northeast, flow will become northwesterly aloft with the upper ridge moving off to our west. Due to the heat ridge, 500MB temps have been very warm as of late. As the ridge migrates slowly westward, those temps will cool slightly to -6 and -7C. The highest probability for a brief shower or storm will be ANB/ASN, but certainly too low to mention at this time.
808 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 After some areas of dense fog tomorrow morning, warmer and dry conditions are expected through the weekend.
908 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 Quiet weather will persist across central and southeast Illinois overnight, with high pressure still in control of the local weather. High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will continue to control the weather across central Illinois tonight. Nearly calm winds initially will become light from the E/SE overnight as the high slowly shifts away and the pressure gradient begins to tighten.
Upper level trough will continue to track across the northern Rockies today. An associated cold front will enter the far northwest portion of the CWA late this afternoon or early afternoon and slowly push south finally stalling over central part of the forecast area overnight. Gradient relaxes as the upper trough slides east Saturday expect less wind.
/issued 440 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/ The Four State Region will remain under the influence of high pressure on the surface and aloft resulting in hot temperatures and small chances for rain into the late weekend.
1049 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A cold front sinking southward will move into the forecast area tonight. Temperatures will be slightly cooler behind the front over the weekend and it will be a little drier. A mid level cap may develop as upper level ridge builds slightly. although a few weak mid level short waves may rotate south from North Carolina around ridge. Temperatures slightly cooler behind the front although above mos guidance due to cool bias.
Mid-level moisture entrained under the upper ridge has led to another afternoon of showers and thunderstorms over the mountains and foothills, moving out over the plains. Initial showers have made it out over the Palmer Divide and the Cheyenne Ridge with additional shower activity still developing over the Front Range mountains and foothills. A weak cold front will move in overnight, bringing cooler temperatures to the plains through tomorrow afternoon. On the plains, the cooler temperatures should keep the airmass stable enough to cap afternoon shower development. An upper trough over the Pacific Northwest this afternoon will be moving onto the northern plains by tomorrow afternoon, but it appears it will be too far north to have any impact on Colorado weather, other than possibly bringing drier air over Nevada and Utah this afternoon over the region.
More favored areas for coverage will probably west of the I45 corridor away from the greater ridging influence.
1140 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A warm front draped across southeast Missouri into northwest Tennessee will remain fairly stationary tonight.
929 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 HARD TO TELL WHERE WEAK COLD FRONT IS NOW LOCATED.
Temps trends mainly in the upper 70s to the mid 80s should also drop into the lower/mid 70s going into the early morning period Sat. 09 (Issued 324 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016) The 20z surface and satellite analysis indicated that temps were ranging from the mid to upper 80s across northeast Alabama and in southern middle Tennessee, to the lower 90s in northwest Alabama.
Ridging to the northeast helped limit development of TSRA to the north with with subsidence. Upper low over Mexico will keep the moist low level flow in place but gradually shifting it to the southwest. An upper level low over Mexico will help advect in higher PWs tomorrow, particularly over the SW zones.
/issued 341 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/ (Tonight and Saturday) A weak upper low, currently over southeastern Coahuila Province in northern Mexico this afternoon, will move slowly northwest to the Texas Big Bend Region on Saturday afternoon. Not much change in temperatures is expected, with overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s and highs Saturday in the lower to mid 90s.
1110 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 accas increasing as the low level jet increases overnight. Lapse rates steepen with increasing omega Saturday with the cold front. Thunderstorms continue to look likely Saturday afternoon and Saturday night with the upper level trough and surface front. The main features in the large scale pattern were a fairly impressive trough over the Pacific Northwest and high heights across the southern part of the CONUS. There was weak ridging from the central plains up into Manitoba. Temperatures at 500 mb were as cold as -23C with the closed low over Washington state. Thermal ridge at 700 mb stretched from southern California up into western South Dakota. Activity could also develop over the high plains and move into the area later tonight.