Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1110 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KY AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION AS WELL AS VALLEYS IN THE BIG SANDY REGION WERE RUNNING A BIT COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE A SMATTERING OF ENERGY EAST OF KENTUCKY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE NATION. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 MODELS FOR WX SPECIFICS IN A REGIME OF PERSISTENCE.
/issued 257 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015/ This afternoon, a cumulus field has begun to develop over the higher terrain of southeast New Mexico and west Texas, with a few showers and thunderstorms already popping up in the Davis Mountains and over the Marfa Plateau. With the midlevel ridge axis currently anchored just east of the region, southwest flow aloft continues to route mid and upper level moisture across the area from the remnants of a decaying tropical system which has morphed into an open wave over the Desert Southwest. Thus, storms that develop this afternoon through tonight, mainly over the higher terrain and adjacent plains, will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. Wednesday will be somewhat similar to today, as the midlevel trough to the west begins to lift northeast.
911 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN. A LARGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD LATE WEEK AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST. THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY LAST NIGHTS MINS PLUS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL. HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO WARMER THAN TODAY.
At 8 pm: Redding was 8 degrees cooler, Stockton was 12 degrees cooler, and Sac International Metro Airport was 26 degrees cooler! No changes to the forecast package this evening. and so have the cooler temps. along with the weakening ridge. High pressure is forecast to rebuild over Socal/Desert SW and into Norcal Thu and Fri. Dry SWly flow aloft will prevail over Norcal with increasing ridge winds.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 62 84 63 85 / 0 0 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 60 83 61 82 / 0 10 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 60 83 61 83 / 0 0 0 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 56 81 57 78 / 0 10 10 10.
806 PM MDT TUE SEP 22 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO TONIGHT. THIS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS SOMEWHAT DRIER IS WRAPPED OVER THE FRONT RANGE BY A DENVER CYCLONE. THE DENVER CYCLONE COULD PULL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BY 12Z AND PRODUCE FOG OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FRONT RANGE. AND IN WASHINGTON COUNTY WHILE COOLER/DRIER AIR OVER THE FRONT RANGE IS MORE STABLE. I EXPANDED THE LOW POPS INTO AREAS NORTH OF DENVER FOR THE EVENING.
659 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 225 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015/ THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAD WARMED INTO THE LOWER-MID 80S IN THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO HOLD ACROSS THE REGION. AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST OF THE AREA SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN ACROSS GEORGIA.
SURFACE HEATING WILL PROMOTE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID- MORNING WITH SURFACE RIDGING PROMOTING LIGHT EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. HUFFMAN ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S. SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW PTS SHOULD ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO COOL A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER FROM THIS MORNINGS LOW TEMPS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ON WEDNESDAY WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.
1035 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 CURRENTLY - A WEAK NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE KEYS THIS EVENING DUE TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. MEANWHILE A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A BROAD TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN U. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS THE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH. COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NOW AND BUMPED POPS TO SCATTERED AS SHOWERS HAVE TAKEN OFF ACROSS EASTERN MARQUETTE COUNTY AND THEN HAVE POPS GO TO SLIGHT CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT EXITS THE CWA AND STALLS SOUTH OF HERE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE CONTINUED WAA/INVERTED TROUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NW. THE 500MB TROUGH OVER THE SW U.
850 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 DRY, RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER, IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN CONTROL. DRY WEATHER IS VERY LIKELY TO CONTINUE THIS PERIOD, AS A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FILLS/DISSIPATES, AND UPPER RIDGING RE- ESTABLISHES CONTROL OVER THE EASTERN STATES. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48 STATES, KEEPING CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY FOR NY/PA.
735 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOW 80S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALOFT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING NE FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LWR GRTLKS TODAY EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS OUR AREA AT LEAST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
920 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE UP THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONTINUED NICE WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 12Z GFS INSISTS ON DRIVING THIS FEATURE NWD AND INTO NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY OSCILLATE BETWEEN WARMER THAN AND COOLER THAN NORMAL. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE WILL BE FOLLOWING ANY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
736 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DESCENDING ONTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WEAK UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION TODAY SHIFTS EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING 2 AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE, ONE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER OVER THE GULF OF MAINE TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE LARGE DOME. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER EXPECTED.
709 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN. A LARGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD LATE WEEK AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST. THE FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IS DISSIPATING EARLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED OVERHEAD. THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY LAST NIGHTS MINS PLUS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL. HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO WARMER THAN TODAY.
1019 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DESCENDING ONTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER EXPECTED.
515 PM MDT TUE SEP 22 2015 THE AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE ARE SMALL MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE NEAR TERM /12 TO 24 HOURS/ WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE LOW CLOUDS DECREASE.
00Z JAX SOUNDING SHOWED INCREASING NE WINDS BELOW 700 MB WITH A VEERING WIND PROFILE BETWEEN THE LOW LEVELS AND ALOFT. WSR 88D INDICATING A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS\WITH ISOLATED STORMS WELL OFFSHORE WHICH HAVE BEEN EDGING WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER NE FL COAST THIS EVE.
707 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 DRY, RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER, IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN CONTROL. DRY WEATHER IS VERY LIKELY TO CONTINUE THIS PERIOD, AS A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FILLS/DISSIPATES, AND UPPER RIDGING RE- ESTABLISHES CONTROL OVER THE EASTERN STATES. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48 STATES, KEEPING CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY FOR NY/PA.
712 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW BRINGING DRY COOL AIR. DUE TO WARMER TEMPS AND THE CLOUD COVER. A NEW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE AREA FROM CENTRAL CANADA, SUPPORTED BY LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION, WILL BRING A FRESH SURGE OF COOLER AIR LATE THIS WEEK.
143 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROF AXIS WILL WILL SLIP EAST OF CNY/NEPA THIS EVENING.
225 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY INTO THE THE GREAT LAKES.
A WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG THE STATE BORDER NUDGES TO SOUTH OF I-10 TODAY AS THE LARGE EASTERN U. TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY. HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH NEAR FRONT WHILE THE LOWEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS SE GA (TOWARDS THE ALTAMAHA) WHERE DRIER AIR WILL TEND TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION. MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE TO THE WEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
555 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF DRY WEATHER WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S.
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. RICH MOISTURE AND A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED T-STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRANS-PECOS REGION. LIKELY UNDERESTIMATING SUBSIDENCE DRYING BENEATH THE RIDGE. GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE WARMER FOR TODAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE JUST EAST OF NORTH GREATLY LESSENING CHANCES OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO CONVECTION TO DRIFT INTO WEST TEXAS. BROAD LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL PROMOTE DIURNAL CONVECTION IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND POSSIBLY INITIATION INTO WEST TEXAS.
424 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF DRY WEATHER WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S.
122 AM PDT THU AUG 13 2015 Low pressure off the coast will bring dry southwest flow aloft and breezy ridge winds at times through Friday. with 80s and 90s over the higher terrain this weekend. Temperatures will continue to be cooler than normal for today with slight cooling over interior over todays highs. Breezy conditions are likely to develop over the ridges during the afternoon with the strongest gusts over the crest. Friday is when the low opens up and begins to move more rapidly towards the north-northeast with center of the low moving into Washington. Cooler air over the region will help to offset the warming effects of the northerly winds, so no major changes in temperatures is expected other than some warming by a couple of degrees over the southern areas and some cooling over the Northern Mountains/Southern Cascades.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN DRY AND HOT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY TRANSFERRING A VORT MAX OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN OREGON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE UPPER LOW PREDICTED TO MOVE NORTH BY THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL NOSE NORTH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING THE THERMAL TROUGH TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE INTERIOR AND TEMPERATURES TO RAPIDLY WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
THE HIGHS TODAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE MIDDLE OF AUGUST.
556 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. HEATING AND SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT AND WEAK TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA SHOWN BY THE NAM AND ECMWF COULD HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON THE RECENT BIAS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. DEEPER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE REMAIN OFF THE COAST ALONG THE FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. SOME UPPER TROUGHING APPEARS TO SHIFT FARTHER WEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
237 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 AFTER A FOGGY START IN THE RIVER VALLEYS, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES TO NY AND PA.
452 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. HEATING AND SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT AND WEAK TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA SHOWN BY THE NAM AND ECWMF COULD HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON THE RECENT BIAS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. DEEPER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE REMAIN OFF THE COAST ALONG THE FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. SOME UPPER TROUGHING APPEARS TO SHIFT FARTHER WEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOULD SUPPORT COOL TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S BY MORNING. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. MODELS DO INDICATE A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DRIFTING OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
427 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN EAST ON FRIDAY.
254 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
318 AM PDT THU AUG 13 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TOWARDS WESTERN WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP AN UNSETTLED AND COOLER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.
603 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT US A CHANGE TO COOLER WEATHER WITH LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK. WITH BRADFORD TAKING THE PRIZE FOR THE LOW TEMP OF 44F AT 09Z. AND AROUND 80F IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. WARMER TEMPS ARE ON THE WAY FOR FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM THE U70S TO AROUND 80F ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST. WHILE THE LOW SUSQ VALLEY SEES TEMPS RECH ATLEAT 85F.
129 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY WARMER AND MORE MOISTURE RICH AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING CONDITIONS BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DIG DEEPER INTO FLORIDA. BRINGING COOLER -8 TO -7 DEG C TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB OVER PORTIONS OF THE SUNSHINE STATE. THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WILL ERODE AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT.
611 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
337 AM PDT THU AUG 13 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL CREATE VERY HOT WEATHER INLAND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW FIRMLY IN CONTROL AS THE RIDGE STRETCHES FROM MO EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. UPPER TROUGH IS ALIGNED ACROSS THE EAST COAST WHILE AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NM. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL UNDERGO A RETROGRADE MOTION AND WEAKEN.
BETWEEN A MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED VORT MAX CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND THE CORE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER NEW ENGLAND. A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL RIDGES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND NORTH ATLANTIC. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TODAY/TONIGHT. WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING. AND INTERACT WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT (-9 TO -11 C AT 500 MB) TO BRING AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
700 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
211 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. LONGWAVE TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE NE CONUS OVRNGT. AS THE TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL THE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE INTERIOR CONUS WHILE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE POSITIONED OVER THE PACIFIC COAST AND QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS MISSOURI AND IOWA WHILE A TROUGH IS PRESENT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AGAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
653 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 A LINGERING UPPER TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A RETURN FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY BUILDS SWD. OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY ALLOWED TEMP TRENDS TO LOWER INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. WITH A STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY BUILDING SWD INTO THE AREA.
Temp/dewpoint spreads are still a bit high for fog in some areas early this morning, but effective cooling under the high should allow most locations to drop to near their current dewpoint temperatures in the lower to mid 60s by sunrise.
548 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIMITED CLOUD COVERAGE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY KEEPING THE NEXT BOUNDARY LOCKED UP TO THE NORTH. ENERGY MIGRATING ALONG THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL HELP DRIVE THIS BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH.
PRIMARY MECHANISMS FOR THE STRONG ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY DROPPING INTO THE STATE TODAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG THE H850 TROUGH ACCESS AND GENERALLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. PROGS REMAIN IN TWO CAMPS WITH HANDLING CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE STATE. SINCE THE AIR MASS WILL BE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. THE 850 TROUGH SLIDES EAST LATER THIS EVENING. CONVECTION LIKELY TO INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY WITH A ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA. BEST HEIGHT FALLS AT THE 500 MB LEVEL WITH TOTAL TOTALS IN THE LOWER 50S FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONFINE THE HIGHER POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVER EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
/ISSUED 1012 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015/ TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING OFF NICELY THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT IN DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR TO THE REGION.
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THIS MORNING. THIS RIDGE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WEST FROM 24 HOURS AGO. THE RIDGE HELD ANY CONVECTION AT BAY YESTERDAY. WITH FORECAST HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 90S EAST TO MID/UPPER 90S WEST. WEAK NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED STORMS FORMING IN WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE RATON MESA INTO THE FAR WESTERN OK PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WHILE ALOFT WE SIT SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE RESULT FOR US THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. HIGHS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL RANGE IN THE LOW AND MIDDLE 90S.
645 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT US A CHANGE TO COOLER WEATHER WITH LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK. WITH BRADFORD TAKING THE PRIZE FOR THE LOW TEMP OF 42F AT 10Z. AND AROUND 80F IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. WARMER TEMPS ARE ON THE WAY FOR FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM THE U70S TO AROUND 80F ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST. WHILE THE LOW SUSQ VALLEY SEES TEMPS RECH ATLEAT 85F.
350 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE ALOFT.
602 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATED A WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WITH DRIER AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS SURGING SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND DE-AMPLIFY AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH FRIDAY.
FRIDAY THE RIDGE HOLDS STRONG ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT. MODELS KEEP THE AREA INBETWEEN RIDGE RIDING WAVES SO EXPECT A DRY DAY.
TODAY SHOULD BE HOT AND DRY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES STRENGTHENS BACK UP. RIDGE STARTS TO BREAKDOWN ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY INLAND OVER WESTERN OREGON. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.
642 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT US A CHANGE TO COOLER WEATHER WITH LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK. WITH BRADFORD TAKING THE PRIZE FOR THE LOW TEMP OF 44F AT 09Z. AND AROUND 80F IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. WARMER TEMPS ARE ON THE WAY FOR FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM THE U70S TO AROUND 80F ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST. WHILE THE LOW SUSQ VALLEY SEES TEMPS RECH ATLEAT 85F.
The cold front has moved through most of the area.
146 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGHER HEIGHTS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK.
102 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY.