Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST/WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE EXTENDED. WHILE LONGWAVE TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. STRONG SW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80 RANGE.
Can't rule out an isolated tornado, especially as the low level jet ramps up later this evening. Given the moist air mass in place, and the low level jet of 30+ knots, if storms develop they may linger well past sunset. Dryline will be well west and there will be weak ridging in place aloft for much of the afternoon. 07 (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) By Wednesday night, the next strong upper level trough will be starting to make its move toward west Texas.
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH COOLER AIR ALOFT AND THIS TRANSLATES INTO SLIGHTLY COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHWEST SANDHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE LOW 50S. WEAK UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SHOVING THE RIDGE FROM TUESDAY TO THE EAST. MODELS SHOW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER WASHINGTON STATE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE WEAK UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN WA.
LIGHT TO SOMETIMES MODERATE SRLY FLOW WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR E/NE.
LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN TONIGHT. HOWEVER SOME SUN WAS BREAKING OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST IOWA IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY AS 500MB TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP A LINE OF TSRA/SHRA OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS AND MOVE IT TOWARD THE I-35 TAF SITES BY 12Z.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 127 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL REACH NORTHWEST OHIO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LOW NEAR THE ERN SD/ERN NEB BORDER. WITH NEXT UPPER LOW OVER ERN WA. SHORT WAVE RIDGE IN BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOWS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE SD PLAINS TODAY.
Appears more vigorous convection in western locations is long upper trough axis, with whole upper system good northeast progress through eastern Kansas with warming cloud tops. Short-range models seem a bit too fast with main deformation precip's exit this morning, with latest HRRR runs similar in isolated to scattered convection making its way southeast around the low into northern areas in the late morning to early afternoon. Moisture through the column not up to recent levels, but dewpoints into the lower 60s still support some instability developing in peak heating. Think more stable surface air plus mid level ridging will keep northern areas dry on Wednesday but could see some rumbles south depending on how far south the front progresses.
THE EVER PRESENT UPPER LOW WHICH HAS INFLUENCED THE PLAINS WEATHER FOR DAYS. AS THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD.
217 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP MID SUMMERLIKE WARMTH ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WHILE INCREASING HUMIDITY AND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE INCREASING CHANCES OF SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NY DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGH THAT SHOULD BE ALREADY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY THIS TIME.
242 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE PUSHING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS SHOULD WARM TO BETWEEN 104 AND 107 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND.
333 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015 TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND REPLACED BY HEIGHT FALLS BY WED MID DAY ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PUNCTUATED BY A LARGE PV ANOMALY DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAC NW AND ANOTHER PV ANOMALY MOVING EAST AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN BAJA. LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE LIMITING VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND HENCE MAINLY SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND. INSTABILITY ON WED WILL NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE THOUGH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AS SRLY FLOW INCREASES ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS.
WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY GAIN STRENGTH OVER THE PLAINS STATES.
THE 12 UTC WRF-ARW/NMM AND 16-18 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH WEAK IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS WASHINGTON AND IDAHO.
335 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
251 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT, HAS KEPT THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA, AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A broad upper level trough will shift east into the Rockies Thu with ripples in the sw flow aloft.
ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT TROF. AS COOLER AIR IS PULLED IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
258 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015 BROAD UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WOBBLE TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WHERE GREATER CLEARING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. FOLLOWED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSMOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WHICH ARE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS.
337 PM PDT Tue May 26 2015 Gradually warmer temperatures this week with some afternoon and evening mountain showers and thunderstorms through mid-week.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED MORE TOWARD THE LOWER LEVELS. AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE GULF REGION. WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 80S COUPLED WITH LOWS PREDOM IN THE MID 60S. WITH THE LATTER HALF OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A BROAD COLD FRONT OUT OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT PLAINS APPROACHING THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
/ISSUED 333 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/ UPPER RIDGE HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST TO ALLOW UPPER TROUGH TO DEEPEN INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
AT THE LOW LEVELS, WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS LINGERING PRECIPITATION AND THUS COOLER HIGHS.
19z sfc map shows low pressure across sw WI with a cold front extending southwest into KS. Weds should be dry for the most part as weak ridging moves across the area.
350 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP MID SUMMERLIKE WARMTH ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WHILE INCREASING HUMIDITY AND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE INCREASING CHANCES OF SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NY DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGH THAT SHOULD BE ALREADY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY THIS TIME.
SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE AND A FEW REMAINING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
128 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015 RADAR CONTINUES TO LIGHT UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW STRONGER CELLS POPPING UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTHWEST. POTENTIAL VORTICITY FIELDS ALSO INDICATING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WHICH. CONVECTION WILL BEGIN AROUND NOONTIME WHEN THE FIRST VORT MAX MOVES OVERHEAD FROM WEST TO EAST THOUGH WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS LOOK TO REACH A MAXIMUM FROM 3PM ONWARDS AS THAT TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE CLOSED LOW WILL ONLY HAVE MADE IT AS FAR AS NRN ID SO EXPECT ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THOUGH MODELS HINTING AT SOMEWHAT LESS COVERAGE. THE ONLY REALLY BIG DIFFERENCE WILL BE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL THANKS TO CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE USHERING IN WARMER AIR.
300 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015 2 PM SURFACE MAP SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTHWEST OF DUBUQUE. WHERE LOW CHANCE POP'S WERE KEPT AS A WAVE/TROUGH ADVANCES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI.
CURRENT SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBS DEPICT THE LOW CENTER IS CURRENTLY RESIDING NEAR KLSE. A LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW. AS THE LOW MIGRATES INTO CENTRAL WIS THIS EVENING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
1026 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015 A slow moving low pressure system will bring scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest through Wednesday.
ONE MORE IN A SERIES OF BROAD AND FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK BRINGING HIGH PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. UNTIL THEN WEAKLY PERTURBED WESTERLIES WILL BE PRESENT OVER US WITH A GRADUAL TENDENCY FOR MEAN HEIGHT RISES AND RESULTANT WARMER TEMPERATURES EVEN ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS FOR A CHANGE. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY COINCIDENT WITH ABOVE CLIMO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE ON WEDNESDAY EVENING SIGNALING THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH.
1121 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. AND PRIMARY MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT PROPAGATION EAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN AROUND 1000J/KG CAPE WHILE STILL RESPECTABLE 30-40KT UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE UPR LEVEL TROF SUGGESTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF CWA WHERE LATER FROPA SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER INSTABILITY.
623 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015 SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. ANOTHER COMPLEX FORECAST THIS MORNING AS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST TO START THE PERIOD.
OUT AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT AND SOUTH OF THE LOW MU CAPES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND NEGATIVE SHOWALTERSWOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. BUT BULK SHEAR IS WEAK IN THE AFTN WITH THE COLD FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTH WINDS AND A COOLER AIRMASS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH.
THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HAS REPOSITIONED A BIT DUE TO THE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. AND AN UPPER LOW MOVING WESTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. WITH THE NEW ORIENTATION TO THE RIDGE. WITH THE NEW ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE.
LOCALLY COOLER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES 12Z THU. THIS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z FRI AND THIS WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA 12Z SAT WITH A COLD AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. LOOKS DRY FOR MOST OF SAT THROUGH MON AND THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES BACK INTO THE PICTURE FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH THE WARM FRONT OFF TO THE WEST.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS. A RESIDUAL COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE HIGH-RES MODELS ARE INDICATING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT INDUCED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TROUGH/LOW INDUCED THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS MY NORTH NEAR THE TRACK OF A MID LEVEL S/WV AND NORTH OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
THE MAJORITY OF MVFR CIGS HAVE DISSIPATED PRIOR TO SUNRISE WITH ONLY A FEW PATCHES OR THIN LINES OF THE LOWER CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH TO SOUTH. THE BUILDING OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE MAINTAINING A RELATIVE SPEAKING RAINFREE FORECAST. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE LOWER VALLEY BOTH THIS AND THURSDAY MORNINGS.
1119 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
MODELS DEPICT THE UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT FOR AWHILE DURING THIS PERIOD BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
FREEZING LEVEL AND -20C HEIGHTS ARE 3-4K FEET LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES THIS MORNING PLACES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES THIS MORNING PLACES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AGAIN TODAY AS A PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DRAWS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THE EC MOS WAS USED FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH HAD SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH IS LIKELY IF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND PART OR MOST OF THE DAY.
627 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015 LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST IOWA.
1127 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015 CURRENT MODELS INDICATE WEAK RIDGING FOLLOWING LAST NIGHTS SHORT WAVE. WILL ALLOW THE HIGH CHANCE POPS TO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. INTO THE HIGHER INSTABILITY AIR AND 20-25KT SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PRESENT ACROSS THESE AREAS. DIRTY RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS PROGGED TO EXPAND NE FROM E TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY/MID-SOUTH/TN VALLEY REGION THURSDAY. AS A CLOSED LOW AND ATTENDENT UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NW BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND MOVE INTO THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES.
That dry air and associated precipitable water values will be a bit on the low side for severe thunderstorm potential.
THE INVERSION IS KEEPING THE LOW-CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 83 65 86 67 / 40 30 50 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 84 65 84 66 / 20 30 30 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 82 66 84 65 / 20 30 30 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 84 61 82 62 / 20 20 30 30.
SOME LOW POPS STILL IN THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SETTLES INTO THE REGION, OTHERWISE SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WAVE. THE LOW DIGGING IN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS HOWEVER IS A BIT WEAKER IN THE LAST FEW RUNS AND THE HEIGHTS NOT QUITE RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY IN THE MODELS.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER WA WITH NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE ROTATING ROTATING THROUGH MT/WY. HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH TROF TAKING SHAPE OVER ERN MT/ERN WY. CONVECTION WILL INTIATE EARLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLKHLS AS WELL AS NERN WY. UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WITH SFC FRONT PUSHING THROUGH OUR ERN ZONES.
UPPER LOW IS NOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO. CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW AND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COMING FROM CANADA HAS RESULTED IN A BAND OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM JUST WEST OF GREAT FALLS TO NEAR HEART BUTTE ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AIRMASS MOIST AND UNSETTLED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
700-300 MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING INTO THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA. EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS 3-5 FT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION.
FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST UPPER TROUGH AXIS DOWN THROUGH WESTERN MISSOURI INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH CONVECTION FIRING IN MISSOURI THIS MORNING ALONG INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR WITH ANOTHER COMPLEX DOWN IN LOUISIANA.
1012 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK.
1002 AM CDT Wed May 27 2015 Weak ridging and slight drying in the low-levels looks to keep instability and storm chances on the low side today.
A weakening upper trough is making landfall this morning along the S CA coast. The dryline shouldn't move much today as height falls spread across the region in advance of the West Coast trough. The HRRR, which did very well with convection yesterday, develops scattered storms this afternoon across the higher terrain and northeast Permian Basin. The upper trough moves overhead Thursday with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND FOR TUCSON AND THE LOWER DESERTS. A WEAK IMPULSE IS LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE BASE OF THE REGIONAL TROUGH. AS THIS LAST PIECE OF ENERGY PUSHES NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS A STRONG AND BROAD BASED RIDGE POSITION WILL CONSOLIDATE FROM CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS IS A VERY TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF PROVIDING THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC FRAMEWORK. THE MAJORITY OF MVFR CIGS HAVE DISSIPATED PRIOR TO SUNRISE WITH ONLY A FEW PATCHES OR THIN LINES OF THE LOWER CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH TO SOUTH. THE BUILDING OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE MAINTAINING A RELATIVE SPEAKING RAIN FREE FORECAST. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE LOWER VALLEY BOTH THIS AND THURSDAY MORNINGS.
AN UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL IMPACT MUCH OF UTAH THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SPINNING OVER IDAHO THIS MORNING. WITH UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING CONTINUING TO BE IMPACTED BY WAVES ON THE SOUTH END OF THIS LOW. ESPECIALLY COMING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD SLOWLY.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD MAY WEAKEN A BIT WHILE DRIFTING EVER SO SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP A WARM HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS HINT AT WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGHINESS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.
A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. WEAK UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AXIS RIDING UP E SIDE OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS OVER THE MIDWEST. AS THE MIDWEST S/W TROUGH APPROACHES. THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATE TODAY SHIFTS SLOWLY E/NEWD T AND WANES TONIGHT AS THE FORCING S/W TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
MCS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS ALREADY IMPACTING THE ARKLATEX REGION WITH BLOW OFF CIRRUS CROSSING OVER NW AL THIS MORNING. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND GENERALLY WEAK FLOW POINT TOWARDS THE POSSIBILITY OF WET MICROBURSTS.
706 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 AVIATION AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL TRACK AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. TONIGHT AND THURSDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
741 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
Otherwise, warm conditions to persist with highs in the low to mid 80s.
HI CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO WITH DECENT LOOKING NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS. BETTER INSTABILITY SETS UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
1246 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 HYDRO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL TRACK AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. TONIGHT AND THURSDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM AROUND CHA DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BUT A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE TERMINALS FROM AROUND 22-04Z AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
945 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015 BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A SHRINKING MARINE LAYER INTO THE WEEKEND.
939 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
1049 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015 THE SOUTHERN TROUGH WILL WORK INTO AZ TODAY AND WHILE REMAINING SLIGHTLY AHEAD. IT WILL PHASE WITH THE IDAHO LOW FOR A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE GREAT BASIN TROUGH. WILL APPROACH ON THU WITH THE TROUGH AXIS REACHING OUR NORTHWEST CORNER LATE THU AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THU NIGHT THRU FRI.
THINKING RIGHT NOW IS THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL NOT MAKE IT TO DHT OR GUY. A MORE IMPACTFUL UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IN THE FORM OF A COMPACT CLOSED LOW NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW.
AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 30-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AND NEAR THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUDINESS AND RAIN CHANCES WHICH KEEPS HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S. MODELS DEPICT THE UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT FOR AWHILE DURING THIS PERIOD BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
OUT AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT AND SOUTH OF THE LOW MU CAPES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND NEGATIVE SHOWWALTERS WOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. BUT BULK SHEAR IS WEAK IN THE AFTN WITH THE COLD FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTH WINDS AND A COOLER AIRMASS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH.
MOST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER CLEAR SKIES TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND EAST SIDE.
929 AM PDT Wed May 27 2015 Gradually warmer temperatures through the end of the week.
731 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
1152 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 UPDATE/MARINE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL TRACK AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. TONIGHT AND THURSDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
955 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015 FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO THE HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS WHICH HAVE PERFORMED WELL OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS REGARDING CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS. A RESIDUAL COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE HIGH-RES MODELS ARE INDICATING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT INDUCED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TROUGH/LOW INDUCED THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS MY NORTH NEAR THE TRACK OF A MID LEVEL S/WV AND NORTH OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
1112 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.