Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
526 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT.
WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS SPANNING THE 50S. QUIET/COOL WEATHER WITH UPPER RIDGING OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. LOW TEMPS ARE A BIT TRICKY GIVEN CALM WINDS AND CRATERING SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S THIS AFTERNOON.
121 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OREGON EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS AN AREA OF HEAVY PRECIP LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THIS LOW.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO MINNESOTA THAT PUSHES EAST INTO WISCONSIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT A LIGHT EAST FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN TO KEEP EAST AREAS COOLER.
436 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. IT WILL BE A WARMER DAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM AROUND 4 DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY. LOCALES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR INTO NORTHWEST IOWA COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 TENTHS OF PRECIPITATION BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH MODEL PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. AND IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
DESPITE THE ADVANCE OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THE ASSOCIATED THERMAL TROUGH IS NOT FORECAST TO DEEPEN THE MIXING LAYER AS PER THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE FORECAST THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THURSDAY FROM ABOUT PGH NORTH AND INCLUDING THE RIDGES. THURSDAY THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE NEARS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW COMMENCES ACROSS OUR WEST.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RETROGRADES TO OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO FEED FROM THE SOUTH CONTINUING THE UNSTABLE PATTERN TODAY. WITH THE 700 MB WINDS EXTENDING NORTH FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY ARE IN THE 15 KT RANGE AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO DISLODGE ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE WEST SIDE. ALL OF THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW AND AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AND WILL NOT GO ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.
322 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL GA OVERNIGHT TNGT WILL NUDGE SOUTH ACROSS SE GA THIS MORNING. A FEW MORE CLOUDS WITH THE FRONTAL APPROACH WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES 1-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S BEACHES. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY WILL BUILD SOUTH THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER WITH ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER UPPER RIDGING. THE MOIST AND COOLER ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST LATER IN THIS PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN SOME AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH.
134 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY.
613 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
343 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2015 RIDGE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ACROSS IOWA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND WAA HELPING TO WARM TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST LATE IN THE PERIOD.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
132 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN OREGON WITH A TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. WITH THE 500MB RIDGE BUILDING IN ALOFT.
512 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
217 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TODAY AND THURSDAY.
DEWPOINTS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WHILE THEY WERE IN THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
348 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 ALOFT- AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO REACHED NORTH TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE - HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SPRAWLED SOUTH TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRUNG OUT ALONG THE GULF COAST AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED TO NORTHERN FL. AN UPPER LOW DROPS FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO OFFSHORE CA. SHIFTING THE UPPER RIDGE EAST WITH IT/S AXIS FROM JUST EAST OF FL TO ONTARIO. BRIDGING THE SLOWLY DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS SOUTH AND REINFORCING THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY WILL BE BASED ON THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING THAT REMAINS IN PLACE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL.
341 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2015 WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING ARE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AN AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TOMORROW. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING WHETHER UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL OR A RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
646 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE FA TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE FA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SETUP IS BORDERLINE FROST ADVISORY ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE FA HOWEVER BELIEVE THAT MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN 36.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH AND NORTHWEST INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION. WITH A TROUGH FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST WITH HEIGHT RISES EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE TN AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGIONS. THE RIDGING WILL KEEP A DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION AND DESPITE BEGIN POST GREENUP. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST PASSING EAST OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER AND SFC PATTERN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. WHILE RIDGING ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF FLORIDA KEEPS EASTERLIES WELL TODAY. STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA NORTHERN FLORIDA IS UNDERCUT BY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID WEST/OHIO RIVER VALLEY BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S THU-NEXT TUE. EAST WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE EVENING AND THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
SW FLOW ALOFT WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION WEDS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A NEG TILTED UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE SW PART OF THE COUNTRY BY LATE THURSDAY. SIMILAR PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH WEAK RIPPLES MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND INTERACTING WITH A WEAK SFC FRONT THAT SHOULD SAG SW DURING THE DAY AND BANK UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 40S AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS. -HOWERTON DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL MAINTAIN A MIXY BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
AS WELL AS A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER MISSISSIPPI AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT BACK AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. /ISSUED 335 AM CST WED DEC 16 2015/ A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND ALLOW COOL AND DRY TO FILTER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH WILL COME IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND TRANSLATE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 IN THE SOUTH. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN U.
310 PM CST WED DEC 16 2015 WX MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT NOW MOVING OVER LOWER ACADIANA BETWEEN LFT AND ARA. AS THE COOLER WATERS UNDERNEATH THE VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR IS STILL CONDUCIVE TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO END FROM NW TO SE AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH HIGHER CHANCES AREAWIDE MON-WED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION. DML A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT REACHING KBKE/KMYL 16Z-190Z. SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TODAY MAINLY TO IDAHO ZONES. BRIEF CLEARING AND COLDER THIS EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH BEFORE A PACIFIC STORM COMES INLAND AND SPREADS SNOW ACROSS OREGON TOWARD MORNING AND ACROSS IDAHO THURSDAY MORNING. THE PCPN WILL BE IN A WARM-ADVECTION PATTERN AND TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN HARNEY COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN BELOW 4500-5000 FEET. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF TROUGH OFF THE PACNW COAST CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTH AND TRANSITIONING THE AREA INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
1015 AM CST WED DEC 16 2015 THE COLD FRONT IS NOW WELL OFFSHORE.
347 PM EST WED DEC 16 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE MID DECEMBER INTO THE WEEKEND.
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT IS SLIDING EAST OF THE PANHANDLES TODAY.
KCSV MAY SEE THE LOWEST CIGS WITH LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER 04Z AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
335 PM CST WED DEC 16 2015 IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL SEE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ON THU NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP THIS COOL AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MARTIN/DB /ISSUED 426 AM MST WED DEC 16 2015/ THE SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVED OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN US. WITHIN THE TROUGH. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND SW MT AND IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG THE ROCKIES/LITTLE BELTS/HIGHWOODS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
339 PM EST WED DEC 16 2015 A PASSING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN OVERNIGHT AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE AND SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. BY EARLY MORNING WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA RAIN WILL DIMINISH BUT LINGER IN THE RIDGES UNTIL EARLY EVENING.
206 PM CST WED DEC 16 2015 Cold front was pushing across the forecast area this afternoon, accompanied by a brief period of wind gusts 30-40 mph. Temperatures reached the mid 50s in many areas ahead of the front, but had already fallen back down into the lower 40s west of the Illinois River. Large cloud shield associated with a low pressure just north of Minneapolis extended as far south as northern Missouri, with the leading edge starting to move into the far western parts of the forecast area. The low cloud deck is not expected to make a lot of southern progress, as the low itself pulls northeast, so have kept skies partly cloudy overnight across southeast Illinois.
As advertised for the last couple of days, much cooler temperatures have filtered into the region behind the cold frontal boundary now located across the midsouth. Temperatures tonight will be relatively cold compared to the past week with many locations dropping into the lower to middle 20s. Thursday will start out mostly sunny, however, clouds will be on the increase as an upper level short wave begins to dig over the high plains.
Updated forecast primarily adjusts for observed trends with ongoing low level cold advection keeping temps noticeably cooler than recent days.
220 PM EST WED DEC 16 2015 SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ALONG WITH UNCOMFORTABLE DEW POINT READINGS IN THE MID 70S ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS. A MODEST WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SUNSHINE STATE.
244 PM CST WED DEC 16 2015 FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR A COUPLE DAYS.
THIS IN MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WITH THE FIRST COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE MORNING TO MID-DAY FROM WEST-EAST. WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND QG FORCING SHIFT NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING AND LEAVE THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT SHIFTS IN. AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO AND PAST KMSP THIS AFTERNOON.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM THE WEST CAUSING A WARMING TREND AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.
1213 PM CST WED DEC 16 2015 Low pressure moving through the upper Midwest with a trailing cold front moving through our area over the next few hours will push showers now over our eastern cwfa off to the east. Clouds will linger a bit in some areas but in general drier and cooler/colder air will move in on gusty southwest and west winds.
SURFACE CYCLONE OVER MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONT DOWN ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL WORK EASTWARD AND INTO THE MIDSTATE THIS EVENING.
WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES OCCURRING ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
225 PM CST WED DEC 16 2015 A DRY MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT. ONE FINAL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.
223 PM CST WED DEC 16 2015 A DRY MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT. ONE FINAL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.
421 PM EST WED DEC 16 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SET UP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
322 PM CST WED DEC 16 2015 WINTER STORM SYSTEM WINDING DOWN WITH DEF ZONE PRECIP FINALLY BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST AS THE UPPER LOW IS SHIFTING INTO ONTARIO. WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING EAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM CANADA WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR TO BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY CAUSING EITHER STEADY OR EVEN FALLING TEMPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
COLD FRONT IS NOW BEYOND 60 NM OF THE TEXAS COAST WITH STRONGER NORTH WINDS THAN EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR ALL AREA TERMINALS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA. COLD FRONT IS NOW ABOUT 30 MILES OFFSHORE AND FOG HAS DISSIPATED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW PLATFORMS NEAR THE 40 MILE MARK. SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL KEEP SCA'S THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
ALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. /ISSUED 430 AM CST WED DEC 16 2015/ THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY.
320 PM CST WED DEC 16 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
1128 AM CST WED DEC 16 2015 DRY SLOT ROTATING AROUND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHWEST PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA CURRENTLY.
905 AM PST WED DEC 16 2015 BLUSTERY DAYS AND COLD NIGHTS THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
/ISSUED 1015 AM CST WED DEC 16 2015/ THE COLD FRONT IS NOW WELL OFFSHORE.
QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW AS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WILL FALL NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE REBOUNDED ONLY INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S AS EXPECTED WITH THE COOLER 925MB TEMPS AND SHALLOWER MIXING HEIGHTS IN PLACE. THE DRY AIRMASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S IN THE WEST AND 30S IN CENTRAL AND EAST LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE EQUATE TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. FUEL ENERGY REMAINS LOW HOWEVER GIVEN THE WETTER AND COOLER CONDITIONS OF LATE. A SHARPER TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CURRENT LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER NEW MEXICO AND NORTH MEXICO CURRENTLY.
This precip is associated with narrow tongue of low level moisture streaming north ahead of approaching cold front/dry line, and being lifted through a combination of weak isentropic ascent and larger scale lift associated with upper level trof pushing northeast from the Plains. This band of precip should work east during the morning and diminish in coverage due to weakening of the low level forcing. However, I have held onto some mention of showers until the passage of the cold front/dry line, as some of the hi-res solutions do indicate spotty along the boundary, and in the wake of the ongoing showers. Afternoon highs should once again exhibit a wide range, from the lower 40s over our extreme northwest counties, to perhaps 60 in a few locations over the southeast half of the CWA.
Most of the CWA will fall into the 20s by sunrise, with some low-lying areas and river valleys potentially reaching the lower 20s. By mid/late morning, a Pacific cold front will move across the area from west to east. Excellent radiational cooling conditions tomorrow morning will result in sub freezing temperatures in all counties of the CWA, with lows mainly in the mid and upper 20s.
MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE AREA REMAINS IN THE SAME WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE STATE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
412 PM EST WED DEC 16 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT AND PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
1101 AM EST WED DEC 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE AND SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. BY EARLY MORNING WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE JERSEY SHORE THURSDAY WITH RAIN DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE RIDGES THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
1148 AM CST WED DEC 16 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1031 AM CST WED DEC 16 2015/ THE COLD FRONT WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING IS STILL OUT IN EASTERN ARKANSAS WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NORTH CENTRAL MS DOWN TO NE LA. THIS LINE IS MOVING EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES TO THE NORTH UP IN MN. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE DRIER AIR IT IS MOVING INTO AS WELL AS THE UPPER LOW MAKING A TURN TO THE NORTH. THIS SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH KMSL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
307 PM CST WED DEC 16 2015 Relatively cold weather will persist through the end of the work week as cold high pressure moves into the region behind the departing storm now in the Upper Midwest.
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH KDHT AND KGUY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. /ISSUED 314 AM CST WED DEC 16 2015/ COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. COOLER AIR THAT ADVECTED IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN OK PANHANDLE AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE TODAY. PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT PUSHING ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION. EXPECT EVEN COOLER NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MID/UPR 30S MOST AREAS EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COAST.
AND NEARLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. ALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. /ISSUED 430 AM CST WED DEC 16 2015/ THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY.
BLUSTERY DAYS AND COLD NIGHTS THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
MAY SEE MORE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT /NORTHWEST OF KBTR AT THIS TIME/ MOVES THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING.
334 PM EST WED DEC 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME LIGHT FREEZING OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE EARLY TOMORROW MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
240 PM CST WED DEC 16 2015 Much more late fall to winter like conditions across the region today in the wake of last night's cold frontal passage. High temperatures running very close to seasonal normals, although the breezy west to northwesterly winds are making it feel quite a bit cooler than that. Conditions tomorrow will be a bit cooler, resulting from an increase in cloud cover associated with a fast moving, but strong upper wave that will move through Kansas and into Oklahoma during the afternoon and evening.
348 PM EST WED DEC 16 2015 FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH COOLER AIR FLOWING OVER THE WARMER LAKE MICHIGAN.
222 PM CST WED DEC 16 2015 THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT HAD NOW MOVED EAST TO ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND BARELY INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THE SHORT TERM MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT INVOLVING MOVING A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA OUT OF SOUTH ALABAMA. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
232 PM MST WED DEC 16 2015 RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE WINTRY WEATHER YESTERDAY WAS POSITIONED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH A GENERAL TROUGH STILL POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. WHICH WAS KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER LEVEL MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR PUSHING BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME THURSDAY MORNING. KEPT TEMPERATURES FAIRLY COOL OVERNIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOW TO UPPER TEENS. WHICH SHOULD FALL TO THE LOWER LEVELS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON.