Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The best instability is actually south of the warm front, so storms will struggle to develop strong updrafts through the afternoon. Zonal split flow aloft will continue over the CONUS tonight into tomorrow, as a cold front associated with a northern stream wave sinks toward the Mid-South region overnight. Outflow from storms that develop along the cold front overnight to our north and west may help to nudge the surface boundary south back into our area, although latest guidance show a range of possibilities for how far south that boundary makes it early tomorrow.
Similar to yesterday, should see lows fall into the low to mid 20s. Look for temperatures to be a touch warmer Saturday as upper level ridging gradually builds overhead. Currently have afternoon highs ranging from the low 40s north of I-90 to upper 40s in areas south. Similar to yesterday, should see lows fall into the low to mid 20s. Look for temperatures to be a touch warmer Saturday as upper level ridging gradually builds overhead. Currently have afternoon highs ranging from the low 40s north of I-90 to upper 40s in areas south.
1120 AM MDT Fri Apr 15 2022 WV imagery at this hour shows a mid-to-upper-level cyclone continuing to depart the region to the east, with a center of circulation near the MN/WI border at Lake Superior. An area of relatively cool cloud tops and enhanced upper-level moisture is evident across the cntrl Rockies extending into swrn SD ahead of low- amplitude troughing covering much of the nwrn CONUS. As the high becomes situated atop relatively fresh snowpack, some fog may develop over far nwrn SD beginning around 03z and extending into the morning hours.
310 PM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022 Approaching low pressure and associated cold front will provide increasing clouds and rain showers tonight.
A wind shift to west/northwest will push in during the morning hours Saturday, as high pressure builds into the region.
A portion of the main high will push across the western Dakotas by 12Z Saturday and shift across eastern ND Saturday afternoon with a ridge pushing across our forecast area and exiting to our east during the evening hours. The highest amounts are expected over north central South Dakota. A ridge of high pressure will be over the western Great Lakes as the next storm system pushes into the western Dakotas at the beginning of this period.
Wind speeds are expected to diminish this evening ahead of a backdoor cold front. That cold front will move into the northeastern corner of the forecast area around midnight and should move through the entire forecast area by sunrise Saturday. This movement, despite the zonal flow aloft, is due to the relative cold, dense nature of the air mass as evidenced by early afternoon temperatures in the 20s and 30s early this afternoon across South Dakota and much of Nebraska, although the air mass is modifying warmer in areas of full sun across southern Nebraska and Kansas. Winds ease behind the cold front Saturday night and cloud cover gradually lessens overnight helping for temperatures to drop into the low/mid 40s in most spots.
A warm front will lift north of the area this evening quickly followed by a cold front overnight.
Temperatures are increasing into the upper 80s into the 90s behind the dryline, due to mixing from a thermal ridge aloft. Ahead of the cold front, strong surface moisture advection continues, with dewpoints in the 60s observed along the Red River and beginning to encroach into central Oklahoma. A cold front associated with a low cyclone moving through the Great Lakes region will begin moving through the region tonight and into Saturday morning. Storm potential in far eastern parts of the CWA will continue overnight, mainly due to isentropic ascent and continued moisture advection ahead of the cold front. Behind the cold front on Saturday will be much cooler, with highs only reaching the 50s and 60s in many locations, as well as gusty northerly winds.
The mountains will develop snow showers while the lower elevations will likely see rain showers due to the warmer temperatures.
As the low moves south towards the Panhandle region, winds are expected to shift to from their current variable direction to the northeast/east-northeast this afternoon with gusts up to 30 mph. Temperatures are expected to be range from the mid 50s in the northeast corner of the CWA to the lower 70s in the southwest corner. Overnight lows are currently expected to fall into the low to mid 30s.
A cold front pushed south earlier today and was a bit stronger than previous forecast, both in terms of slightly faster timing and degree of cold advection behind it. The new forecast for Saturday is slightly cooler than previous forecast with mid 50s as a rule for afternoon highs.
Cold air advection continues for Saturday, all though our temperatures will be slightly warmer. Some guidance is suggesting a bit warmer, but snowpack and cold air advection should keep us a bit cooler than expected.
A cold front will arrive tomorrow morning shifting winds around to out of the north. The cold front will likely slow and stall north and east of the Pecos River Valley during the afternoon, keeping much of the Permian Basin cooler, while everywhere else remains hot. Saturday morning temperatures will be a bit cooler with most locations falling into the mid 40s and low 50s.
A surface cold front also moved across the area this morning with cold air advection behind the front helping create fairly steep lapse rates. Upper low located in central Ontario will continue to spin weak pieces of energy into northern WI.
Conditions begin to improve late in the period in the wake of a surface cold front on Saturday afternoon. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 74 49 69 55 / 90 50 20 50 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 72 46 67 51 / 90 50 10 20 80 Oak Ridge, TN 53 73 45 67 50 / 90 40 10 20 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 68 41 64 46 / 80 50 10 10 60.
1239 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022 A southward sagging surface cold front will make for a tricky temperature forecast today. Greatest impact will be across central Kansas with locations near the Oklahoma border much warmer. Otherwise, drier and cooler air will advect across the entire area on Saturday. While lows Saturday morning will flirt with freezing along the I-70 corridor in central Kansas, winds and patchy clouds should stave off frost potential.
Latest sfc obs show the sfc warm front already extending over the Middle/Lower MS Valley. This will result in a warm and muggy night with lows mainly in the low 70s. A weak upper-level ridge establishes over the region late tonight into Saturday while at the sfc a low pressure system over KS/OK tracks southeast into the Red River.
Drier on Saturday with a cold front moving through during the afternoon. Late in the day, a cold front will slide southeast across the region with low chances for light rain showers across far eastern and southeastern Tennessee with drier air arriving in its wake. Temperatures will be cooler on Saturday but still remain near seasonal normals.
This system will be much warmer than the previous few though with daytime high temperatures Saturday climbing to near 60 in the Snake Plain and Magic Valley tomorrow. Snow levels outside of the central mountains should be above 7000 ft so even the eastern Highlands will see predominantly rain with this system aside from the highest peaks. 3-5 inches in and around Stanley seems likely with much higher totals as you go up in elevation into the Sawtooths where totals may approach a foot in the highest peaks.
Most folks so far have remained in the 20s, with a few spots in the south and east reaching the low 30s. Starting off with the early week chances, low pressure system anchored to a longwave trough originating from near the Nunavut/Manitoba border will have skirted along the U.
An upper trough will linger over the area into this evening causing scattered convective showers. The next round of light to moderate snow arrives with a warm front early Saturday morning along a line from Grangeville to Butte and southward by sunrise.
133 PM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022 High pressure will move off the East Coast tonight. A cold front will cross the area on Saturday, providing a chance of precipitation.
The high temperature in Bismarck has only reached 24 so far setting the pace to break the previous record cold high of 32 set in 2011. Saturday, an upper level ridge will settle over the Northern Plains bringing forth westerly flow to the surface.
another cool night is expected across the region with temperatures falling into the lower to middle 20s to start the day Saturday.
/issued 803 AM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022/ A short wave trough off the FL east coast this morning creeps east today while quasi-zonal flow resides above the Gulf of Mexico. isolated to locally numerous with the higher coverage inland and south. A weak front across the waters washes out today and relaxed high pressure builds in for the weekend. Another front pushes in Sun-Mon with high pressure in it's wake.
301 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022 The airmass still remains fairly dry across the Midsouth but a warm front will surge northward across the region later this afternoon boosting dew points back into the low to middle 60s. After the warm front surges north this evening, a cold front will quickly move across the Midsouth into central Mississippi where it will likely stall. Moisture ahead of the cold front will likely pool across north Mississippi where precipitable water values are expected to reach 1. Tomorrow, depending on where the cold front stalls, there could be additional strong to severe thunderstorms develop over north Mississippi.
Most areas will likely remain below 3 inches, but a few of the higher locations of the Tetons and YNP may get up to 6 inches by sunrise Easter morning. The approaching trough will also bring another day of standard gusty Wyoming winds, especially for higher mountain peaks and from RKS to CPR.
Then it gets warmer for the weekend. This afternoon we are still seeing lingering effects from the large area of low pressure that crossed over the Northland this week. This has brought in cool to cold air and with a little instability still left, we're seeing mini cellular snow showers across the area that won't amount to much, but will temporarily drop visibilities and cause light dustings on area roads with temperatures in the low to mid 20s depending on sun breaks in the clouds. Given that the low is progged to cross right over Duluth, this could spell some lake enhancement snow for the North Shore again with the highest snowfall totals likely north of Two Harbors.
Mid-level ridging will begin to build in overnight tonight though cloud cover will continue. As the mid-level ridge settles in over the area, cloud cover will begin to diminish. A strong cap is expected Saturday, which will trap the low-level moisture leading to hot and humid conditions. Cloud cover will redevelop over the area Saturday night and temperatures will once again be in the low 70s overnight.
208 PM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022 High pressure will move off the East Coast tonight. A cold front will cross the area on Saturday, providing a chance of precipitation.
With clearing skies after midnight, high pressure building over the region with light winds, temperatures tonight will be cold with overnight lows around 20 degrees. High pressure will build east of the area on Saturday. Winds will veer to the southeast and south Saturday afternoon as a warm front pushes into western Nebraska.
It will remain dry today with high temperatures in the lower 40s to lower 50s in most areas, though mountain locations will have highs in the 30s. The east anchor low of an omega block remains over the Pacific Northwest this afternoon, but the block is breaking down as the west anchor low is now undercutting the ridge. Until then, however, the Pacific Northwest will remain vulnerable to short waves rotating around the overhead upper low.
(Through tonight ) Outflow / stationary warm front across SW MO into far NW AR along with a cold front currently approaching SE KS will be the primary boundaries of focus through the evening. The tornado potential does exist especially with the strongest of storms however large potential damaging hail currently appears the highest risk. The aforementioned cold front moves southward and serves as a deep zone of lift downstream of a westerly low level jet segment that intensifies after midnight. Convection along or just north of the cold front will have access to a deeper moisture feed and ample effective shear to maintain a risk of severe weather.
302 PM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022 A cold front will bring scattered to numerous rain showers tonight.
The warmest days will reach the mid and upper 90s for the lower deserts. A deep W-E trough remains centered across the northwest to northcentral CONUS. Thermal effects will be minimal at the surface, such that high temperatures will likely increase through the weekend and into the low 90s.
Though sunny skies will continue due to dynamic subsidence, low pressure undergoing cyclogenesis will result in a tightening pressure gradient. Jet supported ascent and frontogenesis from developing low pressure in the northern Great lakes region will result in widespread shower chance on Saturday, with continued breezy conditions. Once the cold frontal passage is complete, high pressure will build in, rain chance will end and clear sky will allow temperature to drop to near freezing. Long range model ensembles indicate that another low pressure system undergoing cyclogenesis in the upper Great Lakes region may result in mixed precipitation in the area mid-week. As warm, moist advection within swly flow persists through the remainder of the day; cloud cover should increase later tonight ahead of an approaching trough, with light rain and associated MVFR/IFR cigs developing after midnight through Saturday.
Otherwise, it's fairly benign with a continuation of seasonably cool conditions reinforced by Canadian high pressure on Saturday. Temperatures will remain similar to those of recent days and below average, with cold lows tonight from the mid 20s to the lower 30s highs Saturday from the mid 40s to lower 50s. Discussion: Saturday night will be dry and chilly with sub-freezing lows many areas, especially north of Interstate 80.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Deep, but steadily filling low pressure continues to drift slow east across northern Ontario early this afternoon. Northern Michigan remains squarely under the influence of this low, with gusty southwest winds and moisture enhanced cyclonic flow kicking off passing showers at times. Definitely not much impact giving above freezing temperatures (albeit, not by much) and mostly disorganized coverage of the showers. Not a ton of change tonight as that low pressure takes its time moving east, only reaching vicinity western Quebec by Saturday morning.
Otherwise, vorticity maximums rotating around the occlusion will aid in forcing another cold front across srn WI this evening. Polar high pressure will then slowly move across WI and Lake MI late Sat nt-Sun.
1129 AM MDT Fri Apr 15 2022 Overnight lows thus far have been on the mild side with current readings sitting 8 to 12 degrees warmer than this time yesterday. Moisture embedded in the unsettled westerly flow aloft has allowed for light orographic snow showers to develop over the higher peaks along the Continental Divide overnight. Saturday will see upper level flow shift to the southwest as a trough of low pressure pushes inland across the northwestern CONUS. A 110 knot jetstreak rounding the base of the trough will settle over the Western Slope which will translate to yet another afternoon of breezy conditions.
306 PM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022 It seems a little like July across the Lower Keys. With temperatures in the 80s, dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s, and precipitating cloud lines, very reminiscent of early summer. Water vapor imagery highlights a sharpening mid-upper level trough near and east of north-central Florida. How far southwest will convection propagate, as far as the Lower Keys? We have maintained the highest rain/thunder chances for the Upper Keys (50%), with dry air limiting the propagation to the southwest across the Lower Keys, and idea suggested by the last several CAM runs. The pattern will remain roughly the same Saturday and Saturday night, with a weak inverted trough waffling west and east near the Keys.
Another cold night is in store for the area as high pressure builds in at the surface and winds become light. An upper ridge will build over the region on Saturday as an upper trough moves onshore over the Pacific northwest. Warmer air will begin to flow into the region from the south with high temperatures reaching the 40s over most of the area, but remaining in the 30s in the areas with snow cover over southwestern South Dakota. The upper trough and a surface cold front will cross the region Saturday night.
923 PM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022 Rain chances increase late tonight and Saturday with a crossing cold front.
622 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022 (Through tonight ) Outflow / stationary warm front across SW MO into far NW AR along with a cold front currently approaching SE KS will be the primary boundaries of focus through the evening. The tornado potential does exist especially with the strongest of storms however large potential damaging hail currently appears the highest risk. The aforementioned cold front moves southward and serves as a deep zone of lift downstream of a westerly low level jet segment that intensifies after midnight. Convection along or just north of the cold front will have access to a deeper moisture feed and ample effective shear to maintain a risk of severe weather.
Then, showery with isolated lightning Saturday afternoon with cold front. Then, SW-SE 10-20 kt after 16/12Z, becoming W-NW 10-25 kt behind cold front late Saturday aftn/eve.
741 PM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022 Approaching low pressure and associated cold front will provide increasing clouds and rain showers tonight.
752 PM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022 Approaching low pressure and associated cold front will provide increasing clouds and rain showers tonight.
715 PM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022 A cold front will bring scattered to numerous rain showers tonight.
Widespread storms are not expected until possibly later tonight along a cold front that has moved into northeast Oklahoma this evening, and currently sits just north of the I-44 corridor advancing southeast at a pretty good clip. Flooding potential also still exists later tonight across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas where multiple rounds of storms are possible along the stalling cold front.
1035 PM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022 The combination of a weakness of the lower level ridge off of the South Florida Atlantic coast and lying under a somewhat unusually formed upper jet exit region resulted in considerable shower and thunderstorm activity over our eastern waters this evening. In addition, the surface through lower level ridge across Florida will consolidate a bit better and the subtle weakness is expected to wash out. The reinvigorated ridge will help to nudge up easterly breezes a bit through the overnight period. A ridge will consolidate across Florida through the overnight period.
1033 PM EDT Fri Apr 15 2022 Approaching low pressure and associated cold front will provide increasing clouds and rain showers tonight.
Dry weather should continue through the evening as high pressure moves east of the area. Jet supported ascent and frontogenesis from developing low pressure in the northern Great lakes region will result in widespread shower chance on Saturday, with continued breezy conditions. Once the cold frontal passage is complete, high pressure will build in, rain chance will end and clear sky will allow temperature to drop to near freezing. Long range model ensembles indicate that another low pressure system undergoing cyclogenesis in the upper Great Lakes region may result in mixed precipitation in the area mid-week. As warm, moist advection within swly flow persists through the remainder of the day; cloud cover should increase later tonight ahead of an approaching trough, with light rain and associated MVFR/IFR cigs developing after midnight through Saturday.
610 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022 (00Z TAFS) Gusty w-sw winds will subside this evening ahead a cold front that move through TAF sites after 12Z Sat. The cold front will likely slow and stall north and east of the Pecos River Valley during the afternoon, keeping much of the Permian Basin cooler, while everywhere else remains hot. Saturday morning temperatures will be a bit cooler with most locations falling into the mid 40s and low 50s.
Another rounds of thunderstorms is expected Saturday afternoon, with the highest chances over southwest Florida. High pressure is gradually building back into the waters from the north, with relatively light east and southeast flow continuing through the weekend, turning onshore near the coast with the afternoon sea breeze.
Dry weather should continue through the evening as high pressure moves east of the area. Jet supported ascent and frontogenesis from developing low pressure in the northern Great lakes region will result in widespread shower chance on Saturday, with continued breezy conditions. Once the cold frontal passage is complete, high pressure will build in, rain chance will end and clear sky will allow temperature to drop to near freezing. Long range model ensembles indicate that another low pressure system undergoing cyclogenesis in the upper Great Lakes region may result in mixed precipitation in the area mid-week. Ceilings will eventually drop to MVFR by sunrise, and then eventually IFR at several terminals as a cold front approaches.
A cold front will push through the region this evening and tonight, bringing a breezy northerly wind. Wind speeds are expected to diminish this evening ahead of a backdoor cold front. That cold front will move into the northeastern corner of the forecast area around midnight and should move through the entire forecast area by sunrise Saturday. This movement, despite the zonal flow aloft, is due to the relative cold, dense nature of the air mass as evidenced by early afternoon temperatures in the 20s and 30s early this afternoon across South Dakota and much of Nebraska, although the air mass is modifying warmer in areas of full sun across southern Nebraska and Kansas. Winds ease behind the cold front Saturday night and cloud cover gradually lessens overnight helping for temperatures to drop into the low/mid 40s in most spots.
Afternoon highs are forecast to top out in the low to mid 80s near the coast and the upper 80s to near 90 degrees farther inland.
/issued 301 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022/ The airmass still remains fairly dry across the Midsouth but a warm front will surge northward across the region later this afternoon boosting dew points back into the low to middle 60s. After the warm front surges north this evening, a cold front will quickly move across the Midsouth into central Mississippi where it will likely stall. Moisture ahead of the cold front will likely pool across north Mississippi where precipitable water values are expected to reach 1. Tomorrow, depending on where the cold front stalls, there could be additional strong to severe thunderstorms develop over north Mississippi.
330 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022 Cooler than normal conditions are expected today with temperatures expected to range from the upper 40s to 50s. Cold overnight lows will be around or below freezing in some areas. An inverted trough will work through the Gulf Coast states on Sunday with a stronger upper wave tracking through the Northern Plains. Temperatures will be cooler on Sunday, but warm enough for rain.
246 AM MDT Sat Apr 16 2022 High pressure currently over the area is bringing a very cold night to areas where the skies are clear. Cloud cover in some areas have kept temperatures there somewhat warmer.