Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Locations across the Columbia Basin that haven't seen the increase in cloud cover have dropped below freezing and may see some patchy fog through this morning, but breezy winds across the Basin may limit that chance. Overall, quiet weather will continue today as the ridge centered over the eastern Pacific nudges inland. Strengthening high pressure at the surface will keep temperatures mild through the next two days.
The only other concern will be the potential for perhaps some overnight low stratus and fog/freezing fog. High pressure will allow for light winds through the period.
As the trough slides across the Plains, we will see slight wind shifts each day.
With southerly flow developing today and zonal flow aloft, warmer air will advect into South Texas allowing temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 70s for the first time in a week. With a more variable flow tomorrow, temperatures are expected to range within the lower to mid 70s. Light and variable winds tonight along with partly cloudy skies will lead to another chilly night with temperatures ranging from the lower to mid 40s, a few degrees warmer than tonight.
/28/ Broad upper troughing will prevail in the mid-levels across our region, which will result in northwest flow aloft. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than yesterday but still in the 60s with plenty of sunshine. While there has been some recent rain, with the highest totals occurring in the Pine Belt, this did come almost a week ago which should allow for some drying. Conditions will also be on the warmer side today which also helps with fire danger.
434 AM MST Wed Feb 9 2022 Northwest flow aloft prevailed between a upper ridge axis off the Pacific Coast and upper trough axis over the MS River Valley. The first trough moving through MT this morning will advance quickly southeast across WY and Northern/Central Plains this afternoon and early evening. Precipitation associated with this trough will be light rain and snow spreading northwest to southeast. The higher peaks of the Snowy Range could measure 1-3 inches of snow, with lesser amounts elsewhere.
This is occurring as a Clipper is moving eastwards along the International Border, which is sending a modest cold front towards the region accompanied by some weak positive vorticity advection aloft. With winds remaining more parallel than perpendicular to the front, temperatures won't be plummeting quickly but will instead be rising slowly throughout the morning as northwesterly flow acts against the cooler air, with temperatures stabilizing throughout the afternoon. As a result, temperatures near freezing can be expected across SW MN and adjacent areas, with upper 30s to lower 40s likely elsewhere. There is a bit of uncertainty within the thermodynamic profiles as to whether the DGZ becomes saturated or if a slightly warmer layer becomes saturated, and have thus decided to include mention of FZDZ as there is a slight chance of that occurring.
The high over the Pacific remains in control and will keep us on the east side of the mid-level ridge through the week. This wave will bring some slightly cooler air to the area but temperatures will still remain around 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
634 AM EST Wed Feb 9 2022 A weak cold front will push through today, followed by a disturbance tonight, providing a chance for light precipitation. Drier and colder air will arrive Thursday with high pressure.
828 AM EST Wed Feb 9 2022 Early morning patchy dense fog will dissipate between 9-10 am then becoming sunny for the afternoon hours for all areas as weak high pressure builds into the region. Highs should rebound closer to normal levels in the lower/middle 60s, with only upper 50s along the Atlantic Coast. Consensus guidance supports high temperatures in the lower-mid 60s Today, slightly below normal, with lows Tonight in the 35-40 range.
358 AM CST Wed Feb 9 2022 Deterministic short range and high resolution numerical guidance quite similar in transitioning weak frontal boundary/trough axis through the WFO PAH forecast area between 6 am and 9 am CST today. The lower level trough axis will then move northeast during the afternoon hours. Thicknesses will actually remain steady or rise across the base of the trough, allowing surface mixing to generate temperatures in the mid-upper 50s (and even a few locations in the low 60s over southeast Missouri) this afternoon. The WFO PAH forecast area will still remain in a pattern with the upper a broad trough pinwheeling over the northeast quarter of the nation, with the center wobbling in an elongated upper trough stretching from the Great Lakes to Hudson Bay.
Couple the warm temperatures with dewpoints falling into the low to mid 20s and WNW wind gusting to 20 to 25 knots and that will lead to an elevated fire weather danger. Thursday a quick moving area of high pressure at the surface will dominate the area. Thursday night a mid-level trough will move into he western Great Lakes forcing a cold front towards the area.
Locations across the Columbia Basin that didn't see the low cloud cover have dropped below freezing and may see some patchy fog through this morning, but breezy winds across the Basin may limit that chance. Overall, quiet weather will continue today as the ridge centered over the eastern Pacific nudges inland. Strengthening high pressure at the surface will keep temperatures mild through the next two days.
The unusually dry weather persists through the weekend with much warmer than average daytime temperatures but with morning lows in the inland valleys close to chilly normals.
334 AM CST Wed Feb 9 2022 Deterministic short range and high resolution numerical guidance quite similar in transitioning weak frontal boundary/trough axis through the WFO PAH forecast area between 6 am and 9 am CST today. The lower level trough axis will then move northeast during the afternoon hours. Thicknesses will actually remain steady or rise across the base of the trough, allowing surface mixing to generate temperatures in the mid-upper 50s (and even a few locations in the low 60s over southeast Missouri) this afternoon. The WFO PAH forecast area will still remain in a pattern with the upper a broad trough pinwheeling over the northeast quarter of the nation, with the center wobbling in an elongated upper trough stretching from the Great Lakes to Hudson Bay.
Dry and warmer temperatures are expected Thursday.
410 AM EST Wed Feb 9 2022 High pressure is centered overhead this morning.
Temperatures range from the upper 20s in the Hill Country to the lower 40s across the area.
Afternoon temps warm into the lower/mid 60s north of I-4 with mid/upper 60s elsewhere. At the surface, broad high pressure is developing across the central Gulf of Mexico today, favoring light north winds across the forecast area.
Strong high pressure will remain parked off the Pacific coast through the weekend, keeping a dry and generally stable northwest flow over Utah and southwest Wyoming.
440 AM CST Wed Feb 9 2022 Slightly cooler weather is forecast today behind last night's weak cold front. The low-level cold air advection is fairly weak though behind the front and the air mass is Pacific in origin. A secondary cold front is expected to move through this afternoon and evening.
301 AM MST Wed Feb 9 2022 Northwest flow aloft prevailed between a upper ridge axis off the Pacific Coast and upper trough axis over the MS River Valley. The first trough moving through MT this morning will advance quickly southeast across WY and Northern/Central Plains this afternoon and early evening. Precipitation associated with this trough will be light rain and snow spreading northwest to southeast. The higher peaks of the Snowy Range could measure 1-3 inches of snow, with lesser amounts elsewhere.
326 AM CST Wed Feb 9 2022 Slightly cooler weather is forecast today behind last night's weak cold front. The low-level cold air advection is fairly weak though behind the front and the air mass is Pacific in origin. A secondary cold front is expected to move through this afternoon and evening.
345 AM CST Wed Feb 9 2022 Broad upper troughing will prevail in the mid-levels across our region, which will result in northwest flow aloft. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than yesterday but still in the 60s with plenty of sunshine. While there has been some recent rain, with the highest totals occurring in the Pine Belt, this did come almost a week ago which should allow for some drying. Conditions will also be on the warmer side today which also helps with fire danger.
Otherwise, a low pressure system is centered over Ontario causing for a tight pressure gradient, so gusty winds will still be present today, although not as windy as yesterday. The highest winds gusts look to be in the northeastern CWA where were are seeing stronger winds aloft and steeper lapse rates, due to CAA filtering in. Lows tonight will be cooler then they have been over the past couple of nights with winds out of the north. The center of the low will stay off towards our northeast. The warm front will push through during the day, bringing a nice warm up in temperatures with southwest flow of winds. With surface temperatures below freezing between 12-17Z and warmer air aloft, there is a brief window of time where freezing rain is possible, along with the rain and snow mix.
315 AM MST Wed Feb 9 2022 Some lingering breezy west winds continue across the higher terrain at this hour, with a few gusts 50-55 mph. It's certainly milder than previous nights in the high valleys under the warmer air mass aloft, with only Middle Park currently seeing localized temperatures a little below zero. The NW Denver suburbs are also holding warmer than the rest of the urban corridor and plains due to a pocket of westerly winds coming off the foothills. However, moisture looks exceptionally shallow over the higher terrain, so have trended the amounts downward. Temperatures are expected to run a few degrees cooler, with highs in the mid 40's to around 50 east of the mountains, and 20's and 30's for most mountain communities.
High pressure remains in control, bringing light winds, dry conditions and above average temperatures to the region. High pressure will remain in control, centered off the OR/CA coast, aiding in light winds and above normal highs. Highs across the higher terrain will be in the 40s. Lows generally in the 20s with slightly warmer lows in areas of Humboldt and Nye Counties.
645 AM EST Wed Feb 9 2022 Aviation -- Low Pressure System Today and Thursday -- The first of two clipper systems over the next few days will begin to affect us today. Moisture will be shallow and cloud temperatures warmer than -10 C until late in the afternoon. A cold front moving through late in the evening will drop temperatures back below freezing. Moisture will increase in the mid-level DGZ while the lower levels rapidly cool and become weakly unstable for moist parcels. The higher-res HREF members are depicting showery bursts of snow after dusk which could quickly reduce visibilities and slush up the roads.
227 AM MST Wed Feb 9 2022 Upper ridge over the far east Pacific will keep Montana in northwest flow aloft the next couple of days.
Light northwest winds will shift from the southeast as a weak cold front retreats to the north. Hennig (Today through Thursday afternoon) Current observations this morning show a weak cold front located along the I-20 corridor. An upper level trough digs into the Great Plains Thursday that will give the cold front a second life, moving back south into the Permian Basin. Therefore highs tomorrow will be much like those today reaching the 60s in all but the higher terrain of the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.
Basically, warmer air from the west will be over-running the colder air in the east. Recent warming has allowed surface temperatures to climb back up above freezing, limiting the potential for freezing rain.
A more expansive cloud deck associated with a cold front that swept through the area last evening was right on our doorstep along the HWY 20 corridor, and has been moving southeast over the last few hours.
A cold front ran south from the low through Wisconsin before turning west across northern Iowa and into the Dakotas. The cold front associated with the clipper system will sweep through the area late this afternoon and tonight.
No accumulation is expected in the lower elevations.
1102 AM MST Wed Feb 9 2022 Strong upper ridging is persisting across the NW CONUS, while a trough is centered across the Great Lakes region. Have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the higher elevations across Lawrence and Pennington Counties. Weak ridging aloft will attempt to edge into the CWA on Thursday, bringing warmer temps and gusty NW winds.
/EC/ Prior discussion below: Broad upper troughing will prevail in the mid-levels across our region, which will result in northwest flow aloft. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than yesterday but still in the 60s with plenty of sunshine. While there has been some recent rain, with the highest totals occurring in the Pine Belt, this did come almost a week ago which should allow for some drying. Conditions will also be on the warmer side today which also helps with fire danger.
1202 PM CST Wed Feb 9 2022 Slightly cooler weather is forecast today behind last night's weak cold front. The low-level cold air advection is fairly weak though behind the front and the air mass is Pacific in origin. A secondary cold front is expected to move through this afternoon and evening.
258 PM EST Wed Feb 9 2022 High pressure will build to the south through the end of the week.
Westerly surface winds will continue to promote downslope effects, which in addition to the warm temperatures will result in continued drying, with observed relative humidities in the low to mid teens across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas. Tonight into Thursday morning, a minor cold front will shift into through the region, which will result in additional development of high clouds and a slight dip in temperatures.
High pressure will remain over the region into the weekend and the air mass will gradually dry through the end of the week.
This is acting like an overrunning situation, where we have a cooler air mass at the surface, with a a warmer more moist air mass gently riding up and over. Across the Straits of Florida, there is instability thanks to the much warmer Gulf Stream. Did also make an adjustment to the winds across the island chain and upped the winds for the Lower Keys. Otherwise, still think we can recuperate a few degrees and reach into the lower 70s by this afternoon.
Mid-upper level trough will swing east of Florida, and high pressure builds in from the Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere, overnight lows drop to the low to mid 40s across the interior, and mid 40s to around 50 along the coast. A slow moving frontal boundary southeast of Florida will continue to track southeastward as high pressure builds in from the Gulf of Mexico.
220 PM CST Wed Feb 9 2022 Western flank of cold front dropping southward through the area as evident with stratocu field behind it. Surface winds turn back out of the southwest for Thursday as a warm front pushes back eastward through the FA. On the edge of the low/mid level WAA, will likely see a band of precipitation push from west to east from late morning into the early evening hours.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night): High pressure remains firmly in control across Deep South Texas with light winds and generally clear skies into this evening.
The trough will be on our doorstep late tonight and will push across the area early Thursday.
A weak cold front will move across the area during the day tomorrow, but will mainly be a wind shift more than anything else. The 850 mb thermal ridge looks on par with previous model runs in the 13-15 deg C range across the area. Winds out of the southwest will help to provide some component of downslope heating which will help temperatures climb into the low to mid 70s across the area.
Highs are on target to reach into the lower to middle 60s across the plains this afternoon, 50s across the mountains, with highs around 70 degrees possible for portions of the Rio Grande Valley in the Big Bend. A weak cold front will move into the region late tonight through Thursday morning, though will have little impact, as lows tonight will once again be in the upper 20s to middle 30s. Little to no cold air accompanying the front means that aside from a northerly wind shift, it will largely be unnoticed, with highs Thursday a couple of degrees warmer than today. A transition to southwesterly surface flow is on tap for Thursday night, resulting in slightly warmer overnight lows as well, with lows in the 30s for most, and some lower 40s possible.
The weak cold front has made its way through the forecast area as expected, leaving mostly north/northwest winds around 5 to 10 mph behind.
An upper level trough approaching the region this afternoon will continue to move east across S TX tonight. This will lead to warmer temps tonight with lows in the 40s most areas.
At the surface, a cold front was located to our west this afternoon with strong southwesterly surface winds across the Tennessee valley. The cold front is forecast to move through the region during the early morning hours on Thursday. High pressure builds into western TN and northern AL/MS afterwards so winds will remain out of the west and southwest on Thursday, with another mostly sunny day expected and temperatures around or slightly above normal once again.
Still think some gusts into the 15-20kt range occur at KCHA and KTYS this afternoon as cold front approaches from the west. Winds ease tonight as high pressure attempts to build in. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 36 60 36 63 41 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 36 55 34 62 42 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 35 55 33 61 40 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 31 50 30 58 39 / 0 0 0 0 20.
Dry air still present at the lowest levels and without any noticeable moisture transport during the forecast period. Nonetheless, still have a low-end chance of light rain/trace for northern KY and southern IN during the early evening in case the prolonged effect of evaporational cooling moistens up the low troposphere and hydrometeors reach the surface. Morning lows will be at or slightly below freezing while the afternoon highs will exhibit a southward-oriented gradient from southern IN (in the low 40s) to southern KY (low 50s).
Precip type becoming mostly snow toward/after Midnight as cold frontal passage ushers in sub freezing sfc temps from the west. It will be a breezy night with gusts of 30 to 40 mph as the core of the low level jet comes across.
Deterministic short range and high resolution numerical guidance quite similar in transitioning weak frontal boundary/trough axis through the WFO PAH forecast area between 6 am and 9 am CST today. The lower level trough axis will then move northeast during the afternoon hours. Thicknesses will actually remain steady or rise across the base of the trough, allowing surface mixing to generate temperatures in the mid-upper 50s (and even a few locations in the low 60s over southeast Missouri) this afternoon. The WFO PAH forecast area will still remain in a pattern with the upper a broad trough pinwheeling over the northeast quarter of the nation, with the center wobbling in an elongated upper trough stretching from the Great Lakes to Hudson Bay.
Temperatures have warmed into the lower 50s across much of the area, though a few areas with lingering patches of sleet are still in the upper 40s. Temperatures will continue to warm into the upper 50s and lower 60s this afternoon with winds becoming westerly at 8-12 mph behind a weak Pacific cold front. At the surface, a 993mb low was analyzed over Ontario, Canada with a cold front extending through the U.
A weeks-end cold front will return widespread precipitation to the region as well as more seasonable temperature for the start of the new week. Warm advection in advance of an encroaching longwave trough/cold front is on track to drive high temperature nearly 10 degrees above the avg today (38F at Pit).
Basically, warmer air from the west will be over- running the colder air in the east. Recent warming has allowed surface temperatures to climb back up above freezing, limiting the potential for freezing rain.
DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 36 60 36 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 36 55 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 58 35 55 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 31 50 30 58 / 0 0 0 0 0.
Pleasant conditions are expected to continue this afternoon with sunny skies and temperatures into the lower to mid 60s. Meanwhile, surface ridging is centered along the Gulf Coast. Deep westerly flow will support further gradual warming into tomorrow while a decaying cold front stalls well to our north. Overnight lows will still fall into the 30s, but will be a few degrees warmer than last night as will also be the case with tomorrow's highs. The airmass remains quite dry, so even with weak troughing, skies will remain mostly clear with occasional cirrus by tomorrow afternoon.
1222 PM EST Wed Feb 9 2022 A weak cold front will push through today, followed by a disturbance tonight, providing a chance for light precipitation. Drier and colder air will arrive Thursday with high pressure.
A broad upper trough remains over the eastern half of the US, with dry northwest flow across west Texas. After a cold start to the morning, we should see temperatures warm back into the mid 60s, despite the high clouds. Overnight lows tonight will hover right around freezing. The 850 mb thermal ridge looks on par with previous model runs in the 13-15 deg C range across the area. Winds out of the southwest will help to provide some component of downslope heating which will help temperatures climb into the low to mid 70s across the area.
Temperatures range from the upper 40s in the Wabash Valley to the lower 60s in the Ozark Foothills. Overnight, a weak and moisture-starved cold front will clear the forecast area.
A weeks-end cold front will return widespread precipitation to the region as well as more seasonable temperature for the start of the new week. A narrow of swath of light rain will likely accompany an approaching cold front with lack of moisture consistency and jet dynamics being the limiting factors for anything problematic. Warmer temperatures in place will eventually come down with addition cloud cover and precipitation.
As the afternoon turns to evening, a weak cold front will pass through the region and winds will diminish behind it. The possibility for showers along the cold front exists in our far eastern CWA. Jaja Warm air will advect into the region overnight Thursday as mid and low level flow back to westerly/southwesterly ahead of an impending cold front.
124 PM EST Wed Feb 9 2022 High pressure will move east and off the coast this afternoon.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) Current observations this morning show a weak cold front located along the I-20 corridor. An upper level trough digs into the Great Plains Thursday that will give the cold front a second life, moving back south into the Permian Basin. Therefore highs tomorrow will be much like those today reaching the 60s in all but the higher terrain of the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.
A weak Pacific cold front is moving across the region this afternoon, shifting winds from the west with gusts up to 20 mph at times.
1252 PM EST Wed Feb 9 2022 Aviation -- Low Pressure System Today and Thursday -- The first of two clipper systems over the next few days will begin to affect us today. Moisture will be shallow and cloud temperatures warmer than -10 C until late in the afternoon. A cold front moving through late in the evening will drop temperatures back below freezing. Moisture will increase in the mid-level DGZ while the lower levels rapidly cool and become weakly unstable for moist parcels. The higher-res HREF members are depicting showery bursts of snow after dusk which could quickly reduce visibilities and slush up the roads.
However, not expecting much in the way of cooler air behind the front or rain.