Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
302 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 Early this morning clear skies were found areawide as high pressure remain entrenched across the surface. This high pressure will continue to affect the area through the short term.
This yields lows mainly in the low to middle 50s, with a few upper 40s possible in the Northwoods.
Our wet weather pattern looks to continue through this week and weekend as the forecast area remains generally trapped between the H5 subtropical high pressure ridge along the Gulf Coast and the stronger belt of westerlies across the Great Lakes.
Farther south, the onshore breaking waves will lead to the high risk of rip currents continuing along area beaches through at least Tuesday morning. Elsewhere, deep tropical moisture should still allow for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop along sea breeze boundaries, with the highest chances inland. Weak high pressure will build in across the waters through late in the week, with generally benign conditions expected outside of daily thunderstorms.
Further east, an inverted trough is forecast to develop centered along the lower Ohio Valley. Weak moisture convergence along/near this axis combined with mid/upper level ascent downstream of a trough axis should yield isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder. Best chances of this activity should be focused in the lower Ohio Valley in close proximity to the aforementioned inverted trough. Highs this afternoon should reach into the low to mid 80s across the bi-state area, or a few degrees below normal for the middle of August. This activity should once again be focused across southwest Illinois where a weak inverted trough is likely to remain, though cannot totally rule out a stay shower or weak storm a bit further eastward due to the increased diurnal instability.
1110 PM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 High pressure builds across the Northeast through Monday, then slowly moves offshore Monday night, setting up over the Atlantic through the middle of the week. High pressure continues to build in with slight ridging aloft. A upper ridge axis will be over us on Monday, then begins to shift away to the east Monday night. Highs mostly in the lower 80s. This will result in return flow around the high producing a lgt, onshore, humid flow. High pressure will settle north of the terminals this evening.
Aloft, weak troughing in the mid-levels is in place over the central US.
Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 71 81 71 87 / 50 50 80 50 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 69 81 69 86 / 70 50 70 60 80 Oak Ridge, TN 84 70 80 69 85 / 80 50 70 50 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 67 80 67 84 / 80 50 70 60 80.
Surface observations early this morning show an area of high pressure centered over the Great Lakes, which is ushering comfortable humidity values and mild temperatures into the SE Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks region. The high pressure's influence will continue today as it slowly moves into New England throughout the day.
These conditions will continue right through Monday as high pressure slowly drifts across the Great Lakes region and into New England on Monday. Lows tonight will range form the mid to upper 50s in the colder eastern Ozarks valleys, to the mid 60s over southwest Missouri and highs Monday generally in the low to mid 80s, with some upper 80s likely over far southwest Missouri. As the high continues to slide eastward, winds will become more southerly Monday night and Tuesday.
/issued 902 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021/ The Mid-South remains underneath a broad upper level trough. Convection that developed this afternoon in association with the upper trough and peak heating has now diminished since the sun has set. Most of the Midsouth has warmed into the low to middle 80s. A weak trough will remain in place across much of the Midsouth through Tuesday as the remnants of Fred track along the Alabama/Georgia state line then eventually into the Southern Appalachians. Late Tuesday through the work week, a weak ridge will slowly build across the Southeastern US.
A broad mid level trough across the central Plains will slowly lift northeast into the Great Lakes from mid to late week. Embedded disturbances will rotate through this trough, moving across our area from time to time. The highest probability for precipitation will favor the diurnal cycle due to a weakly forced environment. Temperatures will be near seasonal normals with highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows in the mid and upper 60s. Aforementioned mid level trough lifts away to the east over the weekend. Temperatures will remain similar with highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows 65 to 70.
Convective development is aided by the presence of an MCV from earlier this morning as well as lingering boundary across the northwest portion of the region and an upper trough across the Mid-South. However, the weakening of the subtropical ridge is a little shorter in duration with the 12Z runs. The upper ridging across the SErn CONUS and the northern/central Gulf states rebuilds. Models actually have some agreement with a break in that heat eventually arriving late in the weekend in the form of a cold front/upper trough digging into the Plains/Upper Midwest.
307 AM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge in the western U.
Models have been very consistent in modestly developing a low geopotential height anomaly/weak trough from the southern basin of Lake Michigan southward into Illinois today. On top of the synoptic scale forcing, a favorable onshore trajectory off of Lake Erie could provide some enhanced low level moisture today to help in the higher PoPs.
1217 AM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 The large scale pattern remains fixed in place with broad sprawling high pressure over the East Coast and persistent troughing over the High Plains and Canadian Prairies. Subtle mid- level height falls tomorrow will make for 850 mb temps around 1-2 C cooler than today, and thus highs a couple of degrees cooler, but still in the low to mid 80s for most, cooler near Lake Michigan. Upper ridging over the eastern U. Models still showing differences with the progression of an upper trough across the northern Plains late in the week.
Little change aloft as remnants of Fred lift through the ern lakes Wed aftn ahead of weak upper trough through the wrn lakes. Thu not too dissimilar although weak upper trough shifts into the ern lakes as better moisture remains ensconced ewd across OH.
Upper support is very weak, but there is the trough just to the west of the area, and this could provide just enough enhancement in lift to produce isolated to widely scattered showers again Tuesday, with the best chances Tuesday afternoon when heating is maximized. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected in the eastern counties where cloud cover and potential for precip is a little higher. Guidance is continuing to project a broad/weak mid-level trough from the Great Lakes down through the Ohio Valley through the end of the week. Guidance is also continuing to support at least a modest regime change during the weekend, with H500 ridging building from the lower Mississippi Valley northeastward into the CWA.
1259 AM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 Increasing moisture ahead of Plains low pressure will bring a chance of rain to the region through much of the upcoming week.
The activity is being aided by the presence of an upper level trof that stretched across western TN and northern MS. In addition, the widespread moderate to heavy rainfall will reinforce the cooler boundary layer conditions. Ongoing convection has aligned itself in a sw-ne direction across NW Alabama ahead of a short wave trof that was stationary across this area.
319 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 (Issued 319 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021) Today through Tuesday night: Ridging over the east (and Upper Great Lakes) and troughing over the western U. Lows will be in the 50s tonight, but in the lower 60s Tue nt.
Warmer temperatures with less cloud cover and precipitation. Even warmer temperatures as the flow aloft becomes southwest with 700 mb temperatures near 18 Celsius.
Surface map indicates a trough stretching across the western Dakotas. Southerly winds ahead of the trough are breezy across south central SD, where dew points are well into the 60s. Thermal ridge axis pushes over our area over the next couple of days. Of course, smoke/haze could limit highs, so trended toward the lower end of guidance (which was still very hot).
258 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 It should be another mild summer day today with highs from the mid 80s to the lower 90s. For a couple days models were showing a pretty significant complex of storms moving south through the Panhandle into the South Plains associated with a trough/weakness in the subtropical ridge.
Will watch observational trends for now, as the low stratus may prevent dense fog from forming. The highest PoPs today and Tuesday (chc to likely range) will be across the KY Pennyrile and southwest IN, with slight to chc PoPs for southeast IL and the KY Purchase.
334 AM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 High pressure will allow quiet weather to continue this morning. However, a warm front will set off isolated showers or thunderstorms later today and tonight. This should help temperatures there to quickly fall back into the lower to mid 50s and even upper 40s in the coldest spots. A warm front will approach the northeast on Monday afternoon.
A weak upper trof extending from the great lakes to the gulf coast may provide enough upper level support to maintain isolated convection for an hour or two after sunset. The first half of the week looks to be a near carbon copy of today with abundant atmospheric moisture and weak upper level troffing.
Remnants of Tropical Storm Fred will track just to the west of the area Tuesday as high pressure sits along the coast.
The low level jet strengthens to around 30-40kts overnight and will again lead to a threat for some lingering showers/thunderstorms into tomorrow morning. This will also help to keep lows a little warmer east of HWY 83, in the low/mid 60s. Good warm advection will help to warm highs a few degrees over today, with highs in the low to mid-90s. A stronger low pressure system looks to enter the Pacific Northwest by Tuesday and slowly begin to trek eastward. H85 temps soar into the lower 30s C, and Tuesday looks to be the warmest of the period, with highs in the 90s to near 100 degrees. Will need to monitor areas near the Pine Ridge Tuesday for potential fire weather headlines.
924 PM PDT Sun Aug 15 2021 Very hot conditions will continue, especially in the High Desert through tomorrow. Cooler conditions are expected for the middle of the week. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN Key Points: *Very hot conditions will continue in the High Desert through Monday.
We did manage to squeeze out a few rain showers on the far western borders of our CWA from the low level jet that ramped up overnight. Our pattern holds fast for a little while longer with the region caught between an exiting high pressure and a low moving through Canada. Tuesday, a cold front could protrude along the International Border and produce some light rain showers, however there is little agreement in the global models at this time. An upper level low will be moving from the Pacific Northwest and across the Northern Plains into our region.
Tonight Through Tuesday High pressure aloft continues over the western U. with an upper trough over the eastern half of the country. A cold front continues over central Arkansas and will tend to waffle around tonight through Tuesday. As several short waves move through, the highest rain chances Monday and Tuesday will be in the southern half of the state south of the front.
A downstream upper level blocking pattern amplifies over the next 24 hours, keeping weak cyclonic flow in place for the duration of the near-term forecast.
(Today and tonight) A broken down ridge will allow for an unsettled pattern to remain across the region for today and tonight. Otherwise, highs will settle into the lower 90s before falling to a low in the lower 70s.
This trend will continues on Tuesday as a healthy trough deepens across the PacNW pushing the ridge well offshore. Lowering heights and cooler temperatures to our NW will create breezier conditions on Tuesday and localized critical fire weather conditions could develop over northern portions of the area where humidity will drop into the lower teens. There won't be a big influx of moisture until Tuesday night but the lowering of heights aloft will weaken the cap and expect afternoon storms will initially be rooted to the terrain with a few storms moving into the adjacent valleys.
/issued 258 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021/ It should be another mild summer day today with highs from the mid 80s to the lower 90s. For a couple days models were showing a pretty significant complex of storms moving south through the Panhandle into the South Plains associated with a trough/weakness in the subtropical ridge.
Over eastern parts of our area, warmer moist southerly flow continues, while western areas have warm and dry westerly flow. Upper level analysis shows ridge as the dominating feature over the northern Rockies into the Northern Plains, while a trough works its way into the Pacific Northwest. Upper ridge continues to creep easterly, bringing a hot day to the region. Over the southern James River Valley, a weak wave moves through the ridge this afternoon. Ridge flattens out and shifts east on Tuesday as a deeper trough pushes over the west coast and starts heading towards the Rockies.
553 AM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 A warm front over the Ohio Valley will lift northeast through Pennsylvania tonight.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): After TS Fred lifts northwards towards the eastern Gulf Coast later today and tonight, 500 mb ridging will then start rebuilding over the RGV into Tues. As the 500 mb ridging strengthens into Tues, expect a little less conv coverage as the moisture and instability levels decrease just a bit. As the 500 mb ridging increases over the region, the afternoon high temps may increase just a couple of degrees through Tues. This is consistent with the higher pops indicated by the latest NAM. So far MFE has not reached the century mark and am reluctant to go this high for the mid valley.
The coast will experience highs in the low 90s and minimum temperatures near 80. This may bring an increase in rain chances across the north but have kept chances on the low side there for now.
622 AM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge in the western U.
520 AM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 Increasing moisture ahead of Plains low pressure will bring a chance of rain to the region through much of the upcoming week.
618 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 (Today and tonight) A broken down ridge will allow for an unsettled pattern to remain across the region for today and tonight. Otherwise, highs will settle into the lower 90s before falling to a low in the lower 70s.
The influx of relatively drier air in the wake this front has lead to quite pleasant weather with temps ranging from the low-60s north to around 70 degrees south this early morning. Meanwhile, a mid/upper trough stretching from AR to the Great Lakes area will move little through the period, suggesting the front will linger before washing out by Tuesday. By tomorrow, a modest impulse rounding the base of the trough and some mass field response from TC Fred, slated to impact the southeastern CONUS, will nudge the front north a bit and support low end thunder probabilities over much of the area, with scattered activity possible central and south.
High pressure overhead will keep winds light through the afternoon hours. Boxell (Issued 319 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021) Today through Tuesday night: Ridging over the east (and Upper Great Lakes) and troughing over the western U. Lows will be in the 50s tonight, but in the lower 60s Tue nt.
626 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 The dryline has backed up into the Panhandle early this morning, the moisture is shallow and the RAP model suggests the low level jet is veering off leaving the area vulnerable to fog.
With the high PWs, some locally heavy rainfall will be possible with the more persistent cells. A broad mid level trough across the central Plains will slowly lift northeast into the Great Lakes from mid to late week. Embedded disturbances will rotate through this trough, moving across our area from time to time. The highest probability for precipitation will favor the diurnal cycle due to a weakly forced environment. Temperatures will be near seasonal normals with highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows in the mid and upper 60s. Aforementioned mid level trough lifts away to the east over the weekend. Temperatures will remain similar with highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows 65 to 70.
An upper trough will slowly move to the east through the day, assisting with continued chances for showers and storms in the eastern part of the CWA. A weak ridge is expected to move into the Central High Plains overnight and into Tuesday with a trough coming ashore over the PAC Northwest. Dry conditions are expected Tuesday as the ridge moves over the area. Normal lows range from the low to mid-60s. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to mid-90s today and the low to mid-90s tomorrow. This period starts out with a strong trough approaching the forecast area.
Early this morning clear skies were found areawide as high pressure remain entrenched across the surface. This high pressure will continue to affect the area through the short term.
/issued 425 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021/ Currently over the Mid-South, temperatures are in the low 70s.
The highest probabilities for thunderstorm impacts will be at KGUP and KSAF, followed by KFMN and KABQ/KAEG in terms of confidence rankings.
High pressure aloft, stretching from the southwest CONUS up through the Northern High Plains, will keep the area under north to northwesterly flow today. High pressure aloft will track slightly to the east tonight into Tuesday as it begins to break down due to a trough digging across the western CONUS. As the high pressure moves east, warmer air will advect into the lower levels and temperatures will be slightly higher on Tuesday.
719 AM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 A warm front over the Ohio Valley will lift northeast through Pennsylvania tonight.
441 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 The dryline has backed up into the Panhandle early this morning, the moisture is shallow and the RAP model suggests the low level jet is veering off leaving the area vulnerable to fog.
425 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 Currently over the Mid-South, temperatures are in the low 70s.
GC Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 71 80 71 88 / 50 60 80 60 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 70 79 70 87 / 50 60 80 70 80 Oak Ridge, TN 84 69 78 69 86 / 60 60 70 60 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 68 79 68 84 / 60 70 80 70 80.
Looking at tomorrow, more hot and dry conditions expected, with the northern Nebraska panhandle possibly reaching into the lower 100s.
Otherwise, the weak upper low over the Midwest is expected to linger through the end of the period. At this time, not seeing much in the way of a trigger or focus for precipitation in the model data through Tuesday night, but the presence of the upper low and a moist environment may lead to some convective development due to either daytime heating or any minor disturbances that might rotate around the upper low. Models shows strong ridging in place within the upper flow across The Great Lakes and into southern Ontario. weak and poorly organized upper low is suggested to be lingering south of the ridge.
214 PM MDT Mon Aug 16 2021 Upper air analysis shows broad upper ridging across the western CONUS today. With that ridging still in place, expect another hot day Tuesday, with highs reaching over 100 for most of our plains counties. As we progress towards mid-week, ridge slides eastward and upper trough develops over the west coast.
418 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Fred will pass well to the west through mid week with high pressure remaining centered off the coast through late week.
Despite smoke at the surface and aloft throughout the day, the high temperature forecast remains mainly on track, with temperatures maybe not getting quite as high across the far southeast where greater moisture resides. The SPC mesoanalysis page shows the atmosphere remaining capped, contributing to the low confidence; however, if the cap manages to be breached, a couple thunderstorms capable of small hail and gusty winds will be possible given sufficient CAPE and very marginal shear.
/issued 627 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021/ Currently over the Mid-South, temperatures are in the low 70s.
Temperatures reached the low to mid 90s, until the rain when temperatures dropped back into the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Highs today range from the lower 80s over the easternmost portion to the upper 80s over southeast Mississippi. Lows tonight range from around 70 well inland to the lower 70s elsewhere. Highs on Tuesday range from the mid to upper 80s over south central Alabama and the western Florida panhandle to the lower 90s over southeast Mississippi.
1027 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 Unstable and weakly capped airmass will again be over the area today with a weak trough axis overhead. A few showers have developed this morning across far southeast OK and some additional development is likely farther north closer to the trough axis. /Issued 251 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021/ A weak level upper trough axis will remain over the region for the next few days with widely scattered showers/thunderstorms possible.
With the high PWs, some locally heavy rainfall will be possible with the more persistent cells. A broad mid level trough across the central Plains will slowly lift northeast into the Great Lakes from mid to late week. Embedded disturbances will rotate through this trough, moving across our area from time to time. The highest probability for precipitation will favor the diurnal cycle due to a weakly forced environment. Temperatures will be near seasonal normals with highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows in the mid and upper 60s. Aforementioned mid level trough lifts away to the east over the weekend. Temperatures will remain similar with highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows 65 to 70. As the low levels saturate again overnight, expect to see some MVFR to possibly IFR cigs redevelop late tonight into early Tuesday morning.
153 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 (Issued 153 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021) Tonight through Tuesday night: Quiet weather continues across the region as we remain on the western periphery of high pressure centered over the eastern Great Lakes. Tomorrow looks to be a near carbon copy of today, just a touch warmer and more humid. Highs will in the low 80s.
1206 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 (Today and tonight) A broken down ridge will allow for an unsettled pattern to remain across the region for today and tonight. Otherwise, highs will settle into the lower 90s before falling to a low in the lower 70s.
The stronger southerly mixing winds should still lead to highs in the 90s to near 100 degrees under the upper ridge, though.
249 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 A light north to northwesterly midlevel flow remains in place for much of the area as a weak trough moves through the region.
(This afternoon through Tuesday night) An upper level ridge is over the southwest part of the country with an upper trough extending from the Upper Midwest southwestward towards Texas. Wind shear values will be on the low side but may be enough to support a few strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. An upper trough will dig over the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. Temperatures will be cooler on Tuesday with highs mostly in the 70s and 80s.