Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): Mid level ridging will remain in place over Texas through the forecast period. High temperatures today and Thursday will range from the lower 90s near the coast to the mid and upper 90s across the mid valley to above the century mark across the upper Valley and the West.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande valley this evening into early Wednesday morning as a 500mb ridge across northeast Mexico and southwest Texas continues to provide subsidence across the area. /issued 233 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Mid level ridging will remain in place over Texas through the short term. High temperatures Wednesday will range from the lower 90s near the coast to the mid and upper 90s across the mid valley to above the century mark across the upper Valley and the West. In addition, high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will interact with lower pressure inland to produce moderate to breezy and gusty southeast to south winds on Wednesday.
Cold front moves southeast through the area during this time as well. Large hail and damaging winds would be the main hazards, though an isolated tornado is possible near the low and warm frontal zone. Cold air advection will bring a cooler airmass into the area by later tonight. Much cooler airmass will be in place with nne llvl flow regime. 925 temps drop into the teens celsius so the cooler MOS temps look good.
Few cumulus between 2000 and 3000 feet will continue to diminish overnight as high pressure builds into the region. The remainder of the period will be mainly dry as a pronounced upper level ridge begins to build over the area. Aforementioned upper ridge will build over the area with temperatures expected to crest in the mid 90s for most areas.
Upper ridging continues to build across Texas, but weak SW flow aloft remains across our area. The upper ridge will strengthen over the area to end the week.
Lows will depend upon position relative to the front but in general will be much warmer than last night with lows bottoming out in the upper 60s to low to mid 70s from north to south. Convective allowing and deterministic models alike show a good/high chance of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday as the baggy trough and associated high PWS 2. Lows Wednesday night similar to tonight, in the low/mid 70s.
331 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 A much quieter morning prevailed as compared to recent days, courtesy of the UA trough that brought moderate to heavy rainfall to portions of the region has shifted East towards the SE CONUS. If this precip does indeed come into fruition, it will likely diminish by the afternoon, because an UA ridge across SE TX will amplify and nose into the Four-State region. The presence of the said UA ridge will not only result in an increase in large scale subsidence and subsequently declining chances for precip, but it will also encourage a warming trend throughout the remainder of this week.
Moist return flow will continue next 24 hours under SW flow aloft on the west side of an upper ridge located over the Texas Gulf coast. Upper ridging continues to build across Texas, but weak SW flow aloft remains across our area. The upper ridge will strengthen over the area to end the week.
The airmass is cold aloft due to proximity of the upper low. Not much change to the overall pattern Wed and Thu as the Pac NW will be under the influence of the upper low centered just offshore.
Southwest flow aloft will continue in the short term with an upper trough/low on the Pacific Coast and an upper ridge to the east. A cold front has moved to the south and east of the forecast area early this morning taking the thunderstorms with it. This inverted trough will act as a frontal boundary. Surface based CAPE and instability will be limited both today and tonight with cooler air mass over the area and frontal boundary to the east.
Fairly comfortable and seasonably warm into the weekend with high pressure building down through the Great Lakes. More clouds and cooler temps (upper 70s to around 80) expected northeast of Quad Cities, while full sunshine should boost temps well into the 80s to near 90 southwest cwa. Trends of airmass suggest may need to bring clouds and slightly cooler temperatures further southwest through Quad Cities.
A massive ridge aloft will expand across the center of the country during the latter half of the week with the FA being on the northern edge of some very hot air.
The Coastal Bend will continue to be under the influence of an upper ridge through the short term.
322 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 Mid and upper level ridging is expected to intensify across the Southern Plains through the end of the week resulting in dry conditions and warming temperatures. Skies should scatter out by midday allowing temperatures to climb into the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s combined with temperatures in the low to mid 90s will yield heat index values late this afternoon and early evening in the 103 to 107 degree range.
There also could be some elevated convection just behind the cold front late this afternoon, hence the eastward movement of my POPs in our east for a few hours before going away this evening. Wednesday warms up as a high-amplitude upper level ridge builds in, with highs well into the 90s. Upper level ridging pours on the heat for much of the rest of the forecast. Ensembles are trending warmer, and hence, highs have been bumped up a few degrees.
An upper level trough deepening along much of the West Coast will result in moderately strong onshore flow and temperatures below seasonal averages through late week.
331 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 (Today and Tonight) An upper level high will begin to build over Texas and the Southern Plains today and tonight. Model indications are for some heating and drying of the low-level airmass to occur with the ridge aloft beginning to build, but this is being countered by ongoing evapotranspiration with moist soil conditions from relatively recent rainfall. At this time, anticipate that dewpoints will drop into the 60s this afternoon across our area, with the higher readings across our eastern counties.
Mostly sunny today, then the next wave moves into eastern Montana with convection firing along a lee trough and advancing northeast.
305 AM MDT WED JUN 15 2016 Predawn water vapor loop depicted a large upper low just offshore the WA/British Columbia coast. The large scale high pressure ridge building over the nation/s midsection will be the dominant weather feature through the short term.
409 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 Once the last of the rain showers shift out of our far northeast counties, upper ridging aloft will dominate conditions through Thursday, and thus the dry forecast. When the period opens Thursday night, the CWA is under the influence of an upper level ridge that is being slightly displaced to the east, resulting in weak southwesterly flow aloft.
A cold front will bring gusty winds and some rain showers with a few afternoon thunderstorms to northern Nevada today. There will be a short wave spoke extending from the offshore low that will penetrate the LKN CWFA and the H3 wind flow around the base of the trough exceeds 100kts. Thus the wind advisory will stand as is with blowing dust affecting most all of northern and central Nevada due to the limited amount of moisture with this cold front. Dry conditions are expected for the end of the weekend into midweek as a broad high pressure ridge over the 4-corners region works west towards the Southwest US and shifts the storm track well north of the Great Basin. As the ridge becomes more established across the Southwest.
103 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2016 High pressure remains in place through tonight.
Large upper level low will continue to spin off the Pacific Northwest coast through the period, which will keep the area in an active southwest flow.
641 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2016 High pressure will keep the area dry today with above normal temperatures. A few cirrus clouds are present this morning across central NY and northeast PA as we continue to be along the outer edge of the uppr lvl ridge. This system will send an elevated warm front across the region early this morning. There is a slight chance for a rumble of thunder over the region as northern edge of the mid-lvl theta-e ridge pushes into the region, but since the majority of the precip is expected to be rain, left rain showers as the dominant ptype.
Satellite imagery shows a few cumulus over the higher terrain with little vertical development, therefore dry conditions are expected to prevail this evening. Recent near/short range real-time data, PV analysis, forecast model soundings and computer simulations indicate that a dry and warmer southwesterly upper flow pattern will be noted over the forecast district into Wednesday with above to well above mid-June climatological average temperatures anticipated. Computer models show a very large, very warm upper level ridge of high pressure building over the western U. Most models agree that the core heights on this ridge will equal or exceed 600 decameters by the weekend, which is about as high as you will ever see them over this part of the country. As this massive ridge takes hold, temperatures will soar to well above average and possibly record levels.
358 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 The upper level low that is centered near Fargo, ND early this morning will move eastward through this evening, passing nearly overhead. rain is expected to diminish from west to east tonight, as the upper low continues to move east and large scale subsidence spreads into the region. Low level ridging should finally clear things out for the day Thursday, although a rather robust lake breeze could set up by the afternoon with the ideal pattern of a ridge over Lk Superior and increasing low level warm advection/pressure falls to our west.
Some locations may even flirt with the freezing mark, just before sunrise this morning.
103 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2016 Showers and thunderstorms are likely this morning as a warm front lifts northeast across the area. Scattered storms are expected this afternoon as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
An area of low pressure, centered near KABR this afternoon, will continue to pull north and east. As the upper ridge pops back over the Plains on Wednesday night, sfc temps will respond quickly with highs reaching into the 90s on Thursday. Upper level ridging will be in place over the central Plains during the weekend.
220 AM MST WED JUN 15 2016 An area of low pressure across the Pacific Northwest will keep temperatures across the region near to below normal through Thursday.
The weak wave that is interacting with a very warm, juicy atmosphere and sparking thunderstorms in the lower and middle Ohio Valley this afternoon will move off to the east this evening.
300 AM MDT WED JUN 15 2016 Low pressure to our northwest and high pressure building in over Texas will keep southwesterly flow in the forecast. The low and high pressure don't move much over the next 48 hours so a repeat performance can be expected on Thursday: plenty of sunny skies, dry conditions, and some breezy afternoon winds.
As an upper-level ridge builds over the region today and tonight, typical summer weather will likewise begin to assert itself over Oklahoma and north Texas. /issued 426 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ The next seven days will feature a growing upper-level ridge over the southern Plains. This weekend, the ridge will have extended/moved far enough north to put Oklahoma/north Texas under northeast flow aloft.
333 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 The NAM and RAP models shows a warm front lifting into Southwestern Nebraska today. The warm front will lift through North Central Nebraska tonight. The RAP and HRRR models shows highs a few degrees warmer but these models mix very deeply.
352 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 Upper ridging continues to build over Texas early this morning, with this feature expected to anchor itself over the region later today into Thursday.
136 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2016 High pressure dominates across the region tonight into Wednesday with mostly clear skies. High pressure moves out Wednesday as warm front approaches the region from the south and west. Dry through the period with increasing clouds on Wednesday ahead of the aforementioned warm front. Modest inconsistencies among the models handling the warm front and associated precip. Cooler temps in the south with more clouds and warmer temps across the northern third of the region with some sunshine making it thru to provide a bit more heating on Thursday.
Meanwhile to the west, mid and upper level ridging will translate into warming/drying in the column and the development of low level capping.
130 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2016 A warm front will be situated near the area tonight and into Wednesday. A cold front will move through Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Closed upper low will be crossing northeast Ohio on Thursday. Though most precip should occur on the east side of the low where lift will be most enhanced, a few showers and thunderstorms may still develop in the ILN area, affecting mainly northeast counties.
This Evening Through Wednesday Night The main upper low is now crossing the eastern Dakotas as it swings northeast.
1050 PM PDT TUE JUN 14 2016 Freezing temperatures and frost are expected through tonight in some locations as a cold upper level low remains in the area. General low pressure will continue to linger for the remainder of the week allowing for the mountains to remain favored for showers or thunderstorms.
Nearly stacked area of low pressure was centered over northeast South Dakota this afternoon with a warm front extending east across southern Minnesota. With cold-core upper low drifting eastward on Wednesday, expect scattered to widespread showers through the day. There could be lingering rain showers Wednesday evening across the eastern forecast area as an upper level low exits the region. Otherwise, high pressure will build into the Northland from the north and west by Thursday morning, providing sunny and warmer weather for Thursday.
131 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2016 Strengthening high pressure across western New York and Ontario will build eastward bringing a prolonged stretch of dry weather to the North Country through the upcoming weekend. Warmer temperatures and relatively low humidity levels are expected.
1205 AM MDT WED JUN 15 2016 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION Cold front that swept through the area bringing showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon is now well into eastern MT. The cooler airmass behind the front will allow temps to slip back into the upper 30s to mid 40s overnight. Cold front starting to advance across the Treasure State this afternoon bringing widespread showers and a few thunderstorms. also cannot rule out a few flakes of snow at the highest peaks each night into the early mornings for the next couple days.
426 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 The next seven days will feature a growing upper-level ridge over the southern Plains. This weekend, the ridge will have extended/moved far enough north to put Oklahoma/north Texas under northeast flow aloft.
Small Craft Exercise Caution continues for the waters but increased winds to the higher-end of SCEC criteria range to follow trends. Concur with the GFS deterministic that the upper ridge will remain in place over the Region during the period.
Dew points had reached the low to middle 70s, creating for very uncomfortable conditions.
350 AM PDT WED JUN 15 2016 Low pressure will result in unseasonably cool and unsettled weather across the region through the end of the week.
339 AM MDT WED JUN 15 2016 Air mass over southern Colorado will continue to dry out and warm up today as upper level ridge builds northward through the central plains. Deep layered SW flow west of the building ridge will transport hot/dry air northward out of the desert sw, with 700 mb temps rising to 16C-18C across the area by late afternoon. High pressure over TX will build northward into NM and SRN CO over the weekend.
Warm front is forecast to reach the vicinity of the MS River by 00Z and with surface dewpoints rising into the upper 60s to lower 70s, expect MLCAPE values near 1500 J/kg and possibly as high as 2500 J/kg across northeast IA.
304 AM MDT WED JUN 15 2016 Predawn water vapor loop depicted a large upper low just offshore the WA/British Columbia coast. The large scale high pressure ridge building over the nation/s midsection will be the dominant weather feature through the short term.
The cold front has pushed S into Srn Grant and La Salle Parishes. A lake wind advisory areawide is set to expire at 5 pm, and believe these approaching winds will subdue just enough with setting sun to not warrant a reissuance of the LWA but is bringing clear skies to that portion of the cwa and allow overnight lows to fall into the lower 40s across the river valley region. The actual cold front with this system arriving late tomorrow.
1050 PM EST Mon Nov 28 2016 A broad storm system centered over the upper plains and midwest will push a cold front through the commonwealth on Tuesday. A second cold front will follow for midweek. More rain and mild temperatures will occur before cooler air and lake effect snow showers return for the end of the week. However, model soundings support gusts of 25-30kts across the higher terrain of the Alleghenies. Model-blended QPF between tonight and Tuesday ranges from a quarter inch or less across Mckean/Potter Counties, to near 1 inch across the Lower Susq Valley.
Showers will continue until the occlusion and mid-level short wave low pressure trof pass through southern WI. A strong 150 knot jet max lifts to the north this evening followed by a mid level trough axis that moves across southern Wisconsin tonight. Moderate to strong upper level divergence and 700 mb upward motion ahead of the trough. A narrow band of surface based CAPE of around 300 Joules/KG with the occluded/cold front will be enough for a mention of isolated thunderstorms.
541 PM EST Mon Nov 28 2016 A broad storm system centered over the upper plains and midwest will push a cold front through the commonwealth on Tuesday. A second cold front will follow for midweek. More rain and mild temperatures will occur before cooler air and lake effect snow showers return for the end of the week. Temps may rise late tonight as a strong srly LLJet moves in just ahead of the cold front. Downstream ridge over the western Atlantic and New England does not move much and pumps up a little.
609 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016 Very large and deep low pressure system is slowly moving west across eastern North Dakota late this afternoon. As it makes this loop it will inch close enough to the area to bring some accumulating snow to far northwest Nebraska, primarily the Pine Ridge in Sheridan county eastward into far northwest and north central Cherry county. Moist north flow aloft will be favorable for an upslope type snow event along the Pine Ridge into northwest and far northern Cherry county. Temperatures Tuesday will be colder (mainly 30s to near 40 degrees) as a secondary cold front moves through the area ushering in the colder air to our north.
Another cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma around 18z Tuesday with winds shifting to the northwest behind front at BVO/TUL/RVS.
302 PM PST Mon Nov 28 2016 Dry weather with locally breezy north wind returns this week as high pressure builds along the West Coast.
/issued 330 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016/ WV imagery shows the upper trough has cleared West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, but brisk winds trail this feature, as evidenced by sfc obs and cloud streets/mtn waves on vis imagery. Winds on the plains have been barely into advisory criteria the last few hours, and lower lvl winds should decouple rapidly w/sunset, so we'll let the advisories expire as scheduled, and keep the warning for the higher elevations going thru 06Z.
641 PM EST Mon Nov 28 2016 Moisture streaming northward ahead of vigorous low pressure will result in widespread showers tonight.
952 PM EST Mon Nov 28 2016 Moisture streaming northward ahead of vigorous low pressure will result in widespread showers tonight.
Tonight's sounding shows moisture in the lower levels up to around 750 mb with a PW of 1. Mid/upper level trough over the central U. This will help push a surface cold front into the Deep South, but surface ridging will hold across the Florida peninsula keeping the front to our north. Temperatures will warm into the lower and middle 80s away from the immediate coast where the southeast to south flow will likely shift to south to southwest during the afternoon as the sea breeze tries to develop keeping temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.
A closed upper low over the Northern Plains is forecast to stubbornly shift to the Upper Great Lakes over the next several days due to an amplifying ridge to the southeast.
525 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016 A low pressure system remains over the central United States which is bringing rain and snow to the Dakotas. The cold front that came through early this morning has moved into the Ozarks which is brought clouds and precipitation over those areas for the first part of the day. The trough will keep its position over the Midwest for the first part of the week before heading to the Great Lakes. A secondary wave and respective front will move through on Tuesday which will bring another reinforcing shot of cooler air which means a relative cool down for the mid week and beyond with highs once again back to around 50 degrees or what is typical for start of December.
Scattered showers and lower elevation rain showers will continue this evening, especially over the higher terrain from the Mogollon Rim north and east.
West winds of 12-15 kts are expected by midday Tuesday, but speeds will diminish in the late afternoon as a cold front approaches from the northwest. /ISSUED 321 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016/ Our long-awaited cold front has come and gone, now headed into Eastern Texas early this afternoon. In its wake, temperatures are actually warmer (in the low to mid 70s) thanks to stout west- southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph descending off the higher terrain.
/issued 323 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016/ Latest upper air analysis shows a deep/broad closed low centered over eastern North Dakota.
There is a narrow lull in precipitation to the east of the band before precipitation intensity increases once again across the upper James River Valley and Devils Lake basin as the next vorticity lobe extending north of the upper low begins to propagate cyclonically into western and central North Dakota.
Have expanded the High Wind Warning to include the foothills area and the Wind Advisories/Warnings will remain in effect into early Tuesday morning. Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 73 61 64 / 100 40 90 100 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 72 59 67 / 100 70 90 100 Oak Ridge, TN 54 70 58 64 / 100 50 90 100 Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 67 57 64 / 90 80 80 100 NC.
Deep cyclone centered over western Minnesota this afternoon will undergo an occlusion next 12 to 24 hours with occluded front swinging across our area later tonight preceded by large area of much needed showers this afternoon and tonight that will include some thunderstorm activity as it moves through our area.
The cold front is just entering northwest Arkansas with the drier air behind it. The low clouds and fog will not dissipate until the dry air is able to push it out. (ISSUED 544 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016 ) The cold front is just now entering northwest Arkansas and the rain has exited the eastern part of the state.
559 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016 Powerful stacked low pressure system centered this afternoon over southeast North Dakota will begin to slowly move southeast overnight dragging colder air into our region along with a small chance for light pcpn in our far northern counties.
Breezy and mild conditions this evening due to a tight pressure gradient between the northern Plains deep low(977 mb) and high pressure off the east coast. lows tonight should remain in the low/mid 60s.
854 PM EST Mon Nov 28 2016 A warm front will lift north through the area Tuesday.