Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
435 PM EDT Tue Apr 27 2021 Surface warm front remains across southern WI this aftn, with the elevated warm front stalled along a line from roughly Rochester through the SOO. Despite the northerly flow and 850mb temps near 3C, model soundings suggest some mixing which should bring high temperatures to the low 50s or so across the interior and 40s along Lake Superior. Models suggest that a gradually progressive pattern will prevail with troughing through the north central CONUS shifting into the east by the end of the week. A transition toward zonal flow is then expected through the weekend before another trough moves into the west. Wednesday night, sfc ridging building into the area will bring dry conditions with light winds.
The surface warm front was located farther south, stretching from roughly Fayette County to Richland County.
1221 PM EDT Tue Apr 27 2021 High pressure offshore will maintain a warming trend this week.
1030 AM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021 Today should be warm with temperatures getting into the low 80s. High pressure was located off of the North Carolina coast and will keep dry weather over the region today. Temperatures will be on the warm side today with highs in the lower 80s.
337 PM EDT Tue Apr 27 2021 Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms increase late tonight into Wednesday ahead of a cold front with better chances Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night mainly south of Route 30.
Building high pressure will leave dry and warming conditions for the remainder of the work week.
Rains will begin to end from NW to SE Wednesday night as a cold front passes. The current flood watch may need to be extended for SE OK into NW AR pending the cold frontal passage.
This will followed by a strong warming trend peaking this weekend with high temperatures pushing well into the 90s across the lower deserts. This activity will continue through tonight with the focus gradually shifting toward the east as the deep upper level low drifts east. The low is moving slow enough and is deep enough that moisture wrapping back west and southwest behind the system is expected to provide showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm to areas east of Tucson.
200 PM PDT Tue Apr 27 2021 The trough of low pressure will bring another chance of showers this afternoon with a slight chance of thunderstorms, mainly in and near the mountains.
Scattered showers will end this evening as low pressure pulls away tonight. Expecting the most widespread activity to be over the next few hours under the coolest temperatures and closest to the center of the upper level low in southeast California, which would mainly focus on Mohave County through 00Z. By tonight, the low will start to lift north and high pressures will push in behind it. Winds will increase on Wednesday as the pressure gradient tightens between the incoming ridge and exiting low. With increasing heights, warming mid levels, and good mixing with decent winds; expecting warmer temperatures Wednesday compared to today.
The area greatest at risk for the higher rainfall totals will be over northeast Oklahoma into southern Missouri.
A strong upper level ridge centered near the Bay of Campeche extends across the entire eastern half of the country. Increasing 500mb heights from this high pressure system started a warming trend today and will continue that during this period with lows tonight and highs Wednesday 3 to 5 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. This low moisture content plus strong subsidence from the ridge aloft means no rain locally and probably not much in the way of cloud cover either outside of scattered cu field.
As of noon PDT, temperatures are running 7 to 14 deg F warmer compared to the same time yesterday, which will similarly translate over to the afternoon highs. Upper level low will drop south from the Great Basin toward southern California and the Desert Southwest over the next 12 to 24 hours. As this upper low ejects eastward tomorrow, offshore surface pressure gradients will subsequently relax, allowing lighter winds to return to the area.
High clouds continue to stream in overhead, with broad isentropic ascent in place ahead of the deep trough over the Southwest CONUS. Between the two, a cold front lies across northwest Kansas, with a dryline stretching from north-central Kansas into western Texas. Despite the high clouds, temperatures have warmed into the mid to upper 70s, while gusty southwest winds have brought dewpoints into the 60s east of the dryline. Conditions should turn drier for the end of the week and into the weekend, as the upper trough gets cut off over northern Mexico and ridging builds in over the Central Plains.
High pressure to our northeast remains in control of our weather conditions and other than a brief sprinkle (which are not present this evening on radar), mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will prevail tonight. Lows expected in the lower 60s tonight. Winds will shift from the southeast on Wednesday and temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than what we observed today. Moderate easterly breezes tonight will become southeast on Wednesday as the high pressure over the western Atlantic shifts to the southeast.
The lower level ridge is stacked above with a fairly sharp mid and upper level ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Short Term Update - Moderate to fresh easterly breezes will continue through the overnight period as the high pressure off the Atlantic coast will remain fairly static. Deep layered ridging will also continue to dominate keeping rain chances out of the forecast with skies mostly clear to partly cloudy. An Atlantic high off the southeast coast extends a ridge across the southern States.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 85 63 84 60 / 0 10 0 30 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 83 63 82 58 / 0 10 10 30 80 Oak Ridge, TN 63 83 62 82 57 / 0 10 10 40 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 81 59 81 55 / 0 10 10 30 80.
728 PM EDT Tue Apr 27 2021 Surface warm front remains across southern WI this aftn, with the elevated warm front stalled along a line from roughly Rochester through the SOO. Despite the northerly flow and 850mb temps near 3C, model soundings suggest some mixing which should bring high temperatures to the low 50s or so across the interior and 40s along Lake Superior. Models suggest that a gradually progressive pattern will prevail with troughing through the north central CONUS shifting into the east by the end of the week. A transition toward zonal flow is then expected through the weekend before another trough moves into the west. Wednesday night, sfc ridging building into the area will bring dry conditions with light winds.
Southwesterly flow will persist overnight beneath strengthening upper ridging.
644 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021 After a very warm, sunny, and breezy day across central Illinois today, the chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase tonight into Wednesday as low pressure moves slowly across the region.
654 PM EDT Tue Apr 27 2021 Warm and dry conditions will continue until the approach of a cold front late on Wednesday.
801 PM EDT Tue Apr 27 2021 Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms increase late tonight into Wednesday ahead of a cold front.
627 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021 A deep upper level low over the Desert Southwest is forcing cyclogenesis over the west central Great Plains. This has already spawned one bubble of low pressure which is moving northeast into Iowa at this time. Southerly flow ahead of the low is bringing deep moisture back into the Mid Mississippi Valley this evening, and clouds have been increasing all day today.
Overnight lows will be in the lower to middle 60s for most areas, expect a few cooler pockets in our eastern valleys and higher elevations.
/issued 308 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021/ As the night progresses, the high pressure system that gave us pleasant weather over the last few days will shift further off the East Coast.
A weak cold front will move through the area on Wednesday, bringing breezy winds, drier air, and a slight chance for some light rain showers. The low over southern Alberta will develop into a weak Clipper system as it quickly moves east- southeast overnight and into the Northern Plains by Wednesday morning. The cold front associated with this system will bring breezy westerly winds through the day tomorrow, becoming northwesterly by Wednesday evening.
845 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021 Broad southwesterly flow aloft continues over the Mid-South downstream of a deep, positively tilted trough anchored over the Desert Southwest. A quasi-stationary front extends from the Great Lakes into KS, with a cold front and dryline extending south across west TX. We'll remain entrenched within the warm sector of this cyclone for the next few days with the potential for showers and thunderstorms increasing with time. /issued 308 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021/ As the night progresses, the high pressure system that gave us pleasant weather over the last few days will shift further off the East Coast.
738 PM EDT Tue Apr 27 2021 Benign weather to continue with stacked ridging over the region producing warm, dry and somewhat gusty winds for fairly pleasant late April evening/overnight conditions.
Regional 88Ds show a smattering of very light returns moving across the area as weak disturbances traverse the ridging aloft now pushing ewd. Upper air analysis shows a broad ridge over the southeastern US and a deepening trof over the western US. At the surface, high pressure is situated off the Eastern Seaboard, while a frontal system is entering the Plains. Closer to home, a low stratus deck streaming across the area on the western edge of the ridge will persist overnight and into tomorrow, keeping warm and muggy conditions in place. Overnight lows are only expected to fall into the lower 70s tonight, while afternoon highs will top out in the mid to upper 80s tomorrow.
This evening through Wednesday night The cold front continues to slowly slide to the east, with clearing skies and precipitation ending late this evening. Tonight, a ridge will start to build into the forecast area, bringing drier weather and northwest flow. Overnight lows will be a bit cooler than today, but highs will start to rebound nicely on Wednesday.
A stout upper level ridge is building over the West Coast this afternoon, bringing sunny and warm conditions which will persist through the end of the week across NW California.
Winds are expected to be light tonight, allowing temps to fall into the 20s in the mountains and relatively high terrain areas in southeast Oregon, and 30s to lower 40s in the lower elevations, with the warmest readings in the Snake River Plain.
The back edge of the trough axis continues to move across southern Utah. Showers with a few isolated convective elements have been confined to a surface boundary draped across southeastern Utah and the higher terrain of the central and southern mountains. Ridging builds across the area Wednesday with warming temperatures into the firs part of the weekend.
With a deepening trough to the west and a still strong subtropical ridge to our southeast, breezy southwest winds will continue to advect warm air into the area today. Thus, despite the cloud cover, expect similar temperatures to yesterday, with highs in the low to mid 80s once again. Our rain chances will gradually increase late Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon as a northern stream upper-trough (and its associated cold front) pivots from the KS/MO into the Mid South.
An upper low over the southwestern states appears to open into an upper trof while progressing into the south central states through Thursday. A northern stream upper trof meanwhile advances across the northern/central Plains Wednesday night and partially phases with the southern upper trof, then begins to advance into the interior eastern states on Thursday.
North of the front, temperatures were in the lower to mid 60s. This would result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms generally focused near the Highway 20 corridor. The frontal boundary is forecast to sag southward to about the Highway 30 corridor or along a line from Cedar Rapids to Sterling Rock Falls. Details: Wednesday night and Thursday: Cold front will have settled into the Lower MS Vly/OH Vly taking the heavier rain and stronger storms into those areas. The dvn cwa will be on the cooler side of the front with a northeast to north wind.
151 AM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Surface warm front remains across southern WI this aftn, with the elevated warm front stalled along a line from roughly Rochester through the SOO. Despite the northerly flow and 850mb temps near 3C, model soundings suggest some mixing which should bring high temperatures to the low 50s or so across the interior and 40s along Lake Superior. Models suggest that a gradually progressive pattern will prevail with troughing through the north central CONUS shifting into the east by the end of the week. A transition toward zonal flow is then expected through the weekend before another trough moves into the west. Wednesday night, sfc ridging building into the area will bring dry conditions with light winds.
A warming trend starts Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure builds.
1258 AM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Warm and dry conditions will continue until the approach of a cold front late on Wednesday.
Overall expect the big story will be a lot of low clouds today and cooler temperatures with highs only in the 60s. We'll see an upper level ridge build across the western United States and then flatten out as it slides east.
Stout southwest winds drawing moisture into the region with surface dew points climbing into the lower 60s. This upper trough is expected to slowly sag south into Mexico, and remain there through the weekend. Precipitation trends decrease on Thursday as stalled boundary works south leading to cooler more stable conditions.
However the recent trend of the high resolution models is for an even later onset and the possibility that parts of central KS may not get any rain this morning.
The surface warm front was located farther south, stretching from roughly Fayette County to Richland County. A messy split upper flow pattern will be present Wednesday night into Thursday with a northern stream trough digging into the Upper Mississippi Valley.
146 AM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021 [Through 06Z Thursday] Under the influence of strong high pressure aloft, a subsidence inversion based near 6,000 feet msl will cap the air mass. Fair weather and warm temperatures will continue with deep layer ridging in place. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 60s with highs Wednesday in the mid to upper 80s inland areas and near 80 along the coast. Deep layer ridging will maintain fair weather and warmer than normal temperatures through most of this period.
122 AM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms increase late tonight into Wednesday ahead of a cold front.
Winds forecast to increase further on Wednesday with the highest values near 18 knots and gusty in TYR after 28/18Z. /issued 1011 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021/ Still seeing a few sprinkles falling out of AC cigs across portions of E TX/NW LA/SW AR this evening, associated with weak PVA traversing the area in the SW flow aloft, well ahead of a closed low spinning over the Desert SW. Temps have fallen off into the lower to mid 70s as of 02Z, with not much additional fall expected overnight as the stratocu shield develops and pressure gradient maintains SErly bndry lyr winds thus keeping the air mixed.
The cold front ran east from the low into northern Indiana and also southwest of the low into Kansas. The cold front will continue to slowly move south through sunrise and during the day Wednesday. The upper level trough sweeping through the region Thursday will sweep chances for showers eastward.
A cold front is currently working across the FA early this morning. Some good news is that the fire danger today will be much lower with the cooler highs and resultant high relative humidity. Have pops quickly tapering off from the northwest to the southeast as isentropic downglide develops in the wake of the synoptic trof axis.
Today, the forecast area will be in-between systems, with one area of low pressure to the south across the Central Plains and another dropping in from the northwest across North Dakota. Made some adjustments to inherited T and Td grids, reflecting the warmer (highs in the mid 60s to lower, potentially mid, 70s) and drier potential outcome. A cold front will pass through the area this evening into Thursday morning, leading to a change in wind direction to the north- northwest. Heading further into the day on Thursday, the area remains dry both in terms of precip and RH as an upper-level ridge builds in from the west. Temperatures will remain mild across central SD, with highs in the upper 60s to mid- 70s, but will be a bit cooler across the rest of the area (60s).
1011 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021 Still seeing a few sprinkles falling out of AC cigs across portions of E TX/NW LA/SW AR this evening, associated with weak PVA traversing the area in the SW flow aloft, well ahead of a closed low spinning over the Desert SW. Temps have fallen off into the lower to mid 70s as of 02Z, with not much additional fall expected overnight as the stratocu shield develops and pressure gradient maintains SErly bndry lyr winds thus keeping the air mixed.
455 AM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Ridging aloft over the eastern U. High pressure over the Atlantic will keep east to southeast flow over the waters through Wednesday, with flow gradually shifting more southerly then westerly through the rest of the week. High pressure over the Atlantic Ocean gradually retreats east later this week as a front approaches the region, with southerly winds gradually becoming more westerly into the weekend before shifting back southerly late in the weekend along with a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms.
This could develop along a surging cold front. Our second round of severe weather also remains on track for later this evening as the dryline surges back westward and meets up with an approaching Pacific cold front. Upper level low pressure will be sliding just south of the area Wednesday night and into at least early Thursday with cool air and continued shower and low thunder chances with the available instability indicating mostly "weak" storms by that point.
Cooler air aloft have steepened mid level lapse rates to 7-9 deg/km, with SBCAPE values of 250-500 J/kg across the region. By mid to late morning, moisture wrapped around the northern periphery the low will spill back over the Divide resulting in an uptick in shower activity across the central mountains. Moisture source and shower concentration will shift south by Wednesday afternoon, tracking with the low. The low drifting further south and east from the CWA will leave the entire region under dry northerly flow and clearing skies overnight. Models remained consistent in depicting a sharp ridge of high pressure over the West Coast Thursday, which becomes flattened by a Gulf of Alaska low which moves ashore over British Columbia. Despite the ridge weakening, both days are expected to feature light and dry northwest flow.
High temperatures will hoover around the low 80s across the area. A cold front will roll through the area Wed/Thu dropping temps below normal Thu/Fri bringing some relief to the area. Models cutoff the upper lvl low placing it over the Chihuahuan Desert until the next upper lvl trough moves over western CONUS kicking the low eastward. 90s could be make a come back by Sun as weak upper lvl ridging will settle over the Desert SW.
433 AM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021 As high pressure is shoved eastward, the period of dry weather will end this afternoon with the approach of a cold front. The upper level pattern remains with ridging in the southeast CONUS with return flow continuing into the Upper OH Valley for Thursday. Though weaker than the previous setup, a jet streak will then move into the lower OH Valley providing lift into KY, southern OH and WV.
Rain will continue into the evening hours on Thursday as a cold front pushes across the area.
128 AM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021 High pressure offshore of the Carolinas will keep dry conditions in place through Thursday with temperatures generally 5-10 degrees above average.
High pressure aloft will gradually amplify through Thursday over the region, though a few light showers may reach the northwestern and northern portions of the area.
An upper level ridge will strengthen over the region Wednesday and remain centered over the area Thursday. This pattern will bring continued dry and substantially warmer weather to the area. A continued dry pattern is expected as this ridge strengthens over the region. For valleys east of the Cascades, expect high temperatures in the 70s Wednesday and in the lower 80s on Thursday.
Fair weather and warm temperatures will prevail under the influence of a strong 500 mb ridge axis extending from the southwest Gulf to the FL Panhandle. At the surface, a ridge axis extending from Bermuda to southern Georgia will slip southward a bit, causing light surface flow to clock around from the southeast this morning and then south late today.
Temperatures begin to trend warmer through the weekend. Thursday: A mid-lvl trough axis moves through early Thursday morning, dragging a weak frontal boundary through the Dakotas.
432 AM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Warm and dry today and Thursday as an offshore high pressure system continues breezy southerly flow into the region.
High pressure situated off to the northeast will continue to drift eastward resulting in a gradual shift in the prevailing flow with it becoming more southerly over the course of the day and into Thursday morning. Dry weather due to high pressure ridging from out of the northeast will continue through the day and into tomorrow.
Much of the Southeast is covered with high clouds as high pressure is off the Atlantic coast and will remain for the next several days. Areas in the northwest may only reach the low 80s on Thursday due to added cloud cover with the approach of the front.
A broad area of high pressure is located between Bermuda and the United States.
Upper level winds should allow storms to train sw to ne along the low level convergence zone today. Initially the potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding is expected over far sw MO as early as shortly after daybreak/7am but the rain will spread northeast with time as the low level veers.
124 AM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021 High pressure will prevail through Thursday.
Indications are that upper level low will slowly translate eastward today making its way to near Guadalupe Peak over the next 24 hours. After a bit of a lull later this morning, a cold front is expected to move into the CWFA around mid-day. Locally heavier amounts will be possible within any ephemeral convective bursts; however, updrafts will be very skinny/pulsate given poor lapse rates and saturation throughout the low- and mid-levels as thick stratus remains in place from northeasterly flow.
255 AM MDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Current surface analysis shows low pressure now across KS, with rainfall southeast of the area. Ridge is building along the west coast.
Dry weather returns the rest of the week as a strong ridge of high pressure brings a rapid warming trend with temperatures approaching records going into the weekend. Temperatures will rebound back to normal today as the upper low that was over our region moves away across southeast Arizona. North to northeast winds on the back side of the system will lead to gusts of 25-35 mph across much of the region today, with the highest speeds along the lower Colorado River Valley near Laughlin-Bullhead City and southward.
A cold front will approach from the n later this morning and may pass thru HOB mid morning, otherwise sw-w winds will prevail elsewhere Wed PM.
Combined with a steady stream of mid and upper level clouds east of a low pressure system in the Desert Southwest, this should make for a gray start to the day. Forecast models show some mixing and lifting of the low cloud layer by the afternoon, and it's possible more sun can peek through the clouds today.