Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper level ridge remains centered over southern New Mexico and west Texas. 08 (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) The upper level high will remain our dominant weather feature with hot and dry conditions prevailing. This high will be centered over the soutwestern states through the end of this week.
230 PM MDT WED JUL 13 2016 20z surface analysis had weak high pressure beginning to build into the forecast area.
A weak push off cooler air will move over the CWA overnight and keep temperatures close to seasonal averages through Thursday.
342 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 High pressure over the central and southern Appalachians will drift south and weaken. cold front will move southeast toward the area Thursday.
Similar conditions are expected through tomorrow as the moderate westerly flow aloft continues and weak high pressure builds in from the north. Temperatures should be a few degrees cooler than what we have seen the past few days.
(Issued 1104 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016) Lingering bkn/ovc cloud cover slowed the temp trend down this morning leaving current temps in the low/mid 80s. Cloud cover is slowly dissipating and combined with southerly flow, temps will reach the lower 90s by this afternoon.
523 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 The upper ridge over the area will weaken over the next couple of days. Upper level ridging and weak mixed level instability will inhibit updraft strength. The upper level ridge off the South Carolina coast will shift east during the period. resulting in some weak upper level troughing over the Carolinas. Long wave trough over the Great Lakes and Mid atlantic and a surface boundary/cold front will remain north of the region.
and a ridge of high pressure in place at the surface. a few isolated to perhaps widely scattered favoring the high terrain of east Tennessee and southwest Virginia. long wave trough through the first half of the weekend.
Water vapor loop shows the main upper low to the northeast, but several vorts continue to dig down out of Canada into our area. Temperatures will be on the cooler side initially with cloud cover across the region. before clearing out under high pressure and allowing temps to rebound.
233 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 Southwesterly flow over the Ohio Valley will bring increasing moisture until a cold front crosses Thursday night.
with ridge axis more over the Gulf just to the south of the forecast area by late tomorrow. With this a weak surface trof/front over north Alabama late this afternoon will drift south into central and southern Alabama by late Thursday afternoon. With the lower level convergence along the surface trof tomorrow (combined with old outflow boundaries and sea breeze interactions near the coast) and the continued weakness aloft expect yet another round of scattered to occasionally numerous showers and storms Thursday afternoon. Low temperatures tonight ranging from the lower 70s over most of the interior to the upper 70s at the immediate coast.
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicates a mid/upper level low over southern Manitoba beginning to lift ne into nw Ontario. Ahead of the low there is a wsw flow aloft and dry slotting into the Western Great Lakes which has resulted in mostly clear skies across Upper Mi early this morning. At sfc there is trough extending south from low over Srn Manitoba into nw MN and the eastern Dakotas. The heating/instability and approach of the trough should be enough to trigger isold/sct tsra, especially cntrl and east. Upper trough moving in late this week across Great Lakes slowly retreats across eastern Canada this weekend.
218 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 A warm front lifts across the area and off the coast through tonight.
439 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 A warm front will slide off the coast through tonight.
Not helping either is a lack of good low level convergence on the leading edge of an approaching cold front, just making progress to a spot from about Omaha to near Eau Claire as of 20Z.
The best chance of shower an thunderstorm develop late this afternoon and evening looks to be across the southeast Texas Panhandle near the trough. More showers and thunderstorms may move into the northern CWA later tonight in association with a short wave trough moving out of Colorado. A cold front moves into the CWA Thursday morning.
ERSL HRRR shows development through evening expanding northeast into Central Iowa though outflow boundary from MCS and cold front intersection should favor areas along and west of I35 and south of I80.
High pressure will continue to build into the Pacific Northwest during the next 24 hours as a trough of low pressure deepens along and near the southwestern Oregon coast. This trough will result in a cool down of daytime highs across the area, but little change in overnight lows. As the trough arrives we'll first see an increasing marine influence along the coast and in the Umpqua Basin.
1205 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016 Stratocumulus clouds are developing a bit faster and farther south underneath the southern periphery of the circulation associated with the upper low located near Winnipeg this morning, so we have made a few adjustments to sky cover to bring clouds farther south through the afternoon/evening.
644 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016 A cold front near chicago will move across the area tonight followed by another cold front monday night.
GFS/NAM/ECM are all in excellent agreement with general ENE flow in the low-lvls through much of the day, resulting in strong moisture advection. The GFS continues to show considerable mixing of the dryline with dewpts at Cheyenne only in the upper 40s, while the NAM shows dewpts in the low 60s.
Skies are partly to mostly sunny with local radars detecting only isolated showers and an occasional thunderstorm primarily near the Lower Keys. Surface wise, a splintered ridge extends across extreme South Florida and the adjacent gulf and Atlantic waters.
125 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016 A cold front will approach from the west overnight and move east of the area by morning. A weak area of high pressure will build across the Ohio Valley behind the cold front. A reinforcing cold front will move east across the area Monday night.
Shower and thunderstorm activity is then expected to increase in our north/northwest counties late this evening with the approach of a cold front. This gives us the highest chances for our northern half of counties late tonight, and our southern half from daybreak into early afternoon.
It appears that all convective activity this evening will remain either west of the region near the upper low over the Permian Basin or across the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma in the vicinity of a weak cold front. Showers may be a bit more numerous Monday afternoon as a weak cold front eases in from the northeast. A Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough remains over West Texas near Midland while upper level highs are centered over the Four Corners area and also over southern Arkansas/northern Louisiana. The 3 pm CDT surface analysis indicates that a cold front extended from southwestern Michigan southwestwards through northwestern Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle into central New Mexico.
305 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016 A cold front near chicago will move across the area tonight followed by another cold front monday night.
241 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016 Deep layer ridging over much of the region continues to dominate the overall synoptic pattern. A couple minor perturbations rotating around the eastern periphery of the ridge in the mid/upper level flow will help maintain some weak upper level support for scattered showers and thunderstorms through the beginning of the week. We'll finally see a break in the pattern as a trough digs through the Great Lakes Region and shifts a surface front across the eastern US. Behind the front, high pressure will reestablish by mid week with drier air advecting into the area. With the help of some cloud cover, temps are on track to peak in the low/mid 90s with apparent temps in the upper 90s to low 100s.
This will open the door wide for cooler intrusions of air, but make it quite challenging to discern signals for rain in this always challenging flow pattern.
High pressure over Utah brings hot weather to the region.
At the surface, a weak cold front is in the process of decelerating over southwest Iowa and southeast Nebraska early this morning with this boundary likely stalling just to the south of the area today. Tonight into Monday, a weak mid-level impulse will translate southeast through the Dakotas into upper Mississippi Valley, driving a weak cold front south through the mid Missouri Valley.
303 PM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016 Elongated ridge will dominate these periods, centered near the Four Corners. Meanwhile an inverted trough over southern Arizona will slowly work westward under the ridge into southern California.
330 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016 Broad high pressure will remain across the area through Monday.
and Monday A cold front that was forecast to push across most of Wisconsin overnight will bring an end to showers and thunderstorms as it passes to the east.
The ridge axis will shift eastward into Idaho Monday. Both NAM12 and GFS20 bring a weak short wave trough through SW Oregon Monday. the short wave trough will also being highs on Monday down a few degrees. A weak thermal trough setting up along the coast Monday night will lead to northeast offshore wind over SW Oregon and western Siskiyou County.
A frontal boundary will increase chances for showers and thunderstorms later tonight and Monday, with cooler temperatures expected by the middle of the week. Strong afternoon mixing has actually entrained a bit of drier air from aloft with subsidence and high pressure in control late this afternoon. Fries Showers and storms will wane quickly Monday night in the ridges as the initiating boundary and most of the low-level moisture shift southeastward.
This will allow for lows in the lower to mid 60s, and could bring patchy ground fog. Dry advection will slowly will continue through the night and Monday as high pressure works into the region and gradually thins out the high low level humidity levels from recent rains and transpiration. Dewpoints should hold in the lower to mid 60s through the day, thus heat index readings will be negligible. Overview and temperatures: Northwest flow aloft with an upper level trough in the east and a ridge in the Rockies. However, the models seem to struggle with the timing of a cold front that would potentially bring a round of showers and thunderstorms.
An upper level pattern change continues to be indicated with a ridge building over the western CONUS and northwest flow over our region.
345 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016 The closed upper low centered near Kenora Ontario will open up and translate eastward tonight and tomorrow. The risk for thunder should rapidly end this evening, but the area of widespread clouds and showers should slowly sag southward across much of the central and eastern sections of the Duluth CWA through the night with the main trof axis, and persist for much of Monday across the MN Arrowhead and NW Wisconsin.
temps will turn slightly cooler than normal this week. with 1 or 2 days of much cooler than normal. setting up an Ern trof/Wrn ridge thru at least next Sat and probably thru day 10 (Tue Jul 5th). Winds will remain in the 5-10 kt range this afternoon and be light overnight with weak high pressure overhead.
Mainly dry conditions will continue into Monday as ridging builds over the Northern Rockies. Have kept a slight chance of thunderstorms over the southeast Monday night as winds turn more southeasterly, and instability increases as a low level jet looks to develop and a theta-e ridge noses in.
1015 AM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022 High pressure will build slowly south across the region today then remain over the area tonight into Wednesday.
Large scale pattern this morning consisting of an extensive area of high pressure in control over the western half of the CONUS while downstream a positive tilt trough prevailed. At the surface, high pressure centered near the Great Lakes dominated over the region. Models are in agreement dry conditions are on tap the next few days as aforementioned upper high exerts its influence over the Plains.
The upper level positive-tilt trough that has brought us the wet weather since last week will shift through the area today and tomorrow, with the bulk of the shower and thunderstorm activity also shifting well east of our area.
This is as the upper level low pressure system that was meandering around in the central Mississippi Valley and causing our cloud cover and precipitation the last couple of days finally begins to push away from the area. With some low level CAA and slightly cooler 850 mb temps than yesterday, think mid to upper 70s will still be possible around the area today.
525 AM MDT Tue Sep 6 2022 The H5 high remains roughly centered over central Utah with ridging extending northward across the forecast area. The steering flow around the ridge continues in a prime direction to pull smoke from fires in Idaho into the state.
An ongoing dry pattern continues today and tonight as a building upper level ridge covering virtually all of the Intermountain West spreads farther east into the Central Plains while a drier air mass in the lower/mid levels dominates the high plains of western Kansas.
(Today through Wednesday) Deterministic NWP models generally agree that the upper trough will move gradually eastward today, with the approximately N-S axis along the coast by 00z Wednesday. The foregoing models move the upper trough over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday, resulting in subsidence/drying over the CWA.
At the upper-levels, a trough remains over east Texas, while a broad, strengthening ridge is located over the western US. This surface boundary, along with energy from the slowly departing upper trough, will be the focus for a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Outside of thunderstorm chances, temperatures should reach the low to mid 90s today.
As of this writing, a cold front was on a line extending from Rolla to Garrison and Glendive, pushing south and east.
A line of showers has developed and pushed east toward the inland areas likely as a result of some troughing over the lake pushing west toward the shoreline. By the afternoon, if not earlier, we should start to see things clear up with high pressure strengthening somewhat overhead but the primary factor being that the low level moisture finally pushing out and the region drying out. By late this afternoon into tonight we should expect a return to quiet conditions with clear skies as the high pressure dominates with large scale ridging.
High Pressure Reigns. High pressure over the region will continue again today. The NBM looks a touch cooler for the day, which seems good, based on the north winds. Winds will drop off by later this evening, and temperatures will and with little mixing today, under the high, the radiational cooling will allow for a more widespread fog event, which should last most of the night.
/19/ Today and Tonight: Upper level troughing will continue to slowly slide east into the region today.
Clearing trends are more likely later this evening and overnight once high pressure becomes better established over SE MI. A massive blocking event is underway with an Omega configuration over the western United States and a Rex-like feature extending through the Great Lakes region and eastern Canada. The ridge centroid of the Rex block over Ontario/Quebec has resulted in a stubborn, prevailing moist easterly flow locally. There is a lack of advections in this blocking pattern which results in slowly evolving weather. Surface observations show dewpoints some 3 to 4 degrees higher for locations in the low stratus/clearing, suggesting that a deeper mixed layer resides above the surface. The upper level low/geopotential height weakness over Ohio/Lake Erie today will eventually migrate eastward for Wednesday. This will allow ridging to eventually fill in directly over Southeast Michigan from the north/northeast.
(Rest of Today) A positively-sheared mid/upper-level trough axis will continue to progress southeastward into the Mid-South and Lower OH Valley regions today, maintaining modest west-southwesterly flow aloft of 15-25 knots across the TN Valley. Present thinking is that convection will begin to develop between 18-20Z as the current layer of low stratus clouds disperses, allowing for modest warming and destabilization of the boundary layer ahead of a weak cold front/wind shift axis associated with the upper trough.
Ridge extends west a bit more today, and mid-level water vapor imagery shows an area of darkening (indicative of stronger subsidence) moving up toward the northwest from central California. Incoming trough moving into the PacNW on Wednesday may induce a return of onshore flow which may take the edge off the heat (It'll still be very hot with most of the Central Valley seeing highs around 110).
702 AM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 (Today through Wednesday) Deterministic NWP models generally agree that the upper trough will move gradually eastward today, with the approximately N-S axis along the coast by 00z Wednesday. The foregoing models move the upper trough over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday, resulting in subsidence/drying over the CWA.
515 AM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022 Rain chances will lower through midweek as a slow moving low pressure system shifts east of the region. However, the upper level trough will remain parked over the area which will mean another day of clouds and the risk for scattered showers or a thunderstorm. Some improvement is expected on Wednesday as the upper trough begins to shift to the northeast. Temperatures will remain cooler than normal.
With increased sunshine, surface heating will increase as well, with highs likely in the lower to middle 90s. Expect after highs to once again climb into the lower to middle 90s.
616 AM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) An upper level high will remain nearly stationary near the Four Corners Region for the next several days leaving southeastern New Mexico and West Texas on its strong subsident southeastern edge. Tomorrow a weak cold front will manage to sneak into the area, but it will be lacking any cold air and its effects will not be noticed much beyond a northeasterly wind shift.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ROCKIES ON High pressure will intensify over the Northern Rockies today, with afternoon temperatures approaching record warmth. Record warmth will continue through Wednesday, when a relatively dry trough of low pressure is projected to approach the Northern Rockies. Ahead of the trough, gusty wind and extremely dry humidity will combine to create critical fire weather conditions across the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. There is a slight chance that moisture moving around the high pressure ridge and ahead of the trough Wednesday late afternoon through late evening will translate thunderstorm activity across the southern portion of Idaho County, Lemhi County, and all of southwest Montana.
Ridge aloft will maintain itself, while starting to weak and shift east tonight, ahead of a pos- tilt trough pushing into the SE CONUS.
Meanwhile, a weak upr lvl circulation was also indcd ovr region, embedded within the persistent trof axis aligned over AR. Combo of daytime heating, along with the aforementioned upper trof in place, scattered convection wl once again form. Rain chcs on Wed wl tend to focus more over the SE part of the FA, as upper ridging begin to bld fm the W, allowing the lingering upper trof to shift to the E of AR.
The large area of high pressure aloft remains centered near the 4-corners region through Wednesday, but is obliterated by the long wave trough that sweeps across Canada and the northern tier of U.
318 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022 High pressure will build slowly south across the region tonight then remain over the area into Wednesday.
A strong high pressure system over the western United States will remain in place through Wednesday.
Many of the high-res models show some isolated convection across these areas later this afternoon and into the evening, with a little convection showing up on area radars just east of the area.
A cold front remains on track to move through the area for the middle to latter part of the upcoming weekend.
234 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 Gradually warming temperatures will be the main story over the next few days, as a ridge of high pressure moves across the northern plains into the Missouri Valley. Ketcham The above mentioned cold front will move south across the forecast area, either during the overnight hours on Fri or early on Sat. Some subtle model differences on timing of the front, pushing south on Sat, which may lead to another above normal max temperature day for southern KS, with much cooler air moving into central KS by Sat afternoon. Expect most of Sat, to be cloudy with scattered showers and some embedded thunder around, with noticeably cooler temperatures for most locations.
250 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022 Weak high pressure will remain across the region through Wednesday then an upper level trough moving across the eastern U. will cutoff over the Lower Mississippi Valley late in the week before lifting north and becoming absorbed into the next trough moving through the central and eastern U.
Light southeast breezes prevail across the Florida Keys, with isolated showers and thunderstorms occasionally pulsing in the lee of the Lower Keys. Temperatures are in the lower 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. With tropical storm Earl moving north into the western North Atlantic towards Bermuda, mean layer ridging will collapse and erode near the Keys and Florida.
331 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 Late this afternoon through Wednesday: Showers and storms have concentrated mostly over northeast LA into west central MS this afternoon where greater daytime heating/destabilization took place with sfc temperatures reaching the low/mid 90s. Meanwhile, a weak cold front pushing south toward northern portions of the forecast area will help to keep shower and thunderstorm chances going well into the evening and overnight, particularly along/north of the Highway 82 corridor.
1222 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 (Today through Wednesday night) High pressure system remains in control of the weather pattern over the Panhandles during the short term period. H500 northeasterly flow near the periphery of a large domain high pressure system centered over Utah will be quasi-stationary through tomorrow night as the stronger H300 steering flow jet is displaced well to the north over the Canadian border. Large scale subsidence over the domain of the high pressure system will keep the Panhandles dry. High temperatures today will range from the lower to mid 90s across the Panhandles. High temperatures tomorrow will be a tad bit warmer with some areas in the northern Panhandles getting as high as the upper 90s as a drier airmass settles in across the region compared to today.
318 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022 A cold front will continue to push south of the area tonight through Wednesday.
An upper trof extending from the eastern Great Lakes into eastern Texas advances slowly eastward through Wednesday to extend from Louisiana into the northeast states. A weak surface trof/boundary which currently extends from the near the Red River valley into Kentucky meanwhile slowly drifts into the forecast area on Wednesday.
1220 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 (Today and tonight) Upper-level ridging over the Great Basin will expand towards the forecast area today. Despite the increased ridging aloft, thickness values won't increase much today and when combined with cooler northeasterly surface flow, temperatures should peak similar to yesterday. With afternoon high temperatures in the low 90s on the Caprock and mid to upper 90s east of the escarpment under mostly sunny skies.