Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Expansive anticyclonic flow dominates the upper tropospheric flow pattern over the western 2/3rds of the CONUS early this morning, with the ridge axis along the Montana/North Dakota border. A subtle H500 perturbation cresting this ridge axis was bringing showers and storms to the Dakotas and will slide southeastward later today. Smoke/haze from wildfires to the northwest will persist for the bulk of the day, but winds switching to the south on the backside of the H850 ridge will start pushing the smoke plume back north. Northeasterly flow off Lake Michigan will keep temperatures cooler for today along the eastern side of the boundary, with muggy and warm air still lingering along the boundary.
The mid/upper ridge over the Central Great Basin area will gradually shift eastward over the Central Rockies today.
The temperatures will be in the 80s the rest of the week as the upper low retrogrades. However, as the upper high sets up over the region, temperatures will increase into the 90s and the dew points will be in the 70s.
An upper level trough will remain persistent over the eastern US through much of the weekend. Temperatures in the low 70s. Guidance continues to indicate upper low retrograding well to our west with upper trough continuing over the east coast and upper ridge just to our S/SW, providing a weak NW flow aloft for our forecast area (FA). Ensemble guidance indicates the east coast upper trough to linger through most of the period with some lifting north possible late in the forecast period. Will generally expect scattered mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms through the period, lesser chances Sat/Sun with the lower PW's, trending up some early to mid week, in line with latest NBM POPs.
/issued 737 AM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021/ Latest RAP model shows deep layer ridging from the Atlantic residing over most of FL and the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico through this evening. Highs reach the lower to mid 90s with the beaches a bit cooler. Atlantic high pressure with a relaxed gradient stretches across the waters through the weekend with an axis generally south of the area.
A weak back-door cold front dropping south through Illinois will be a potential focus for showers and storms late this afternoon into evening, primarily in our western counties. Some of that may be supported by the higher levels of near-ground smoke.
145 PM CDT Wed Jul 21 2021 Upper low will continue moving westward across West Texas to near the Trans Pecos by Thursday afternoon.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): The 500mb low/inverted trough across west-central Texas tonight will continue to provide unsettled weather across the CWA tonight into Thursday before the 500mb ridge across the eastern Gulf of Mexico moves westward into the western Gulf of Mexico providing an increase in subsidence across south Texas Thurs night.
355 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021 Unsettled but generally benign weather will continue through the remainder of the work week as an upper trough persists over the region.
302 PM CDT Wed Jul 21 2021 A broad, weak convergence zone remains parked near the HUN CWFA this afternoon; to the north, precipitable water values are ~1 inch with dew points in the mid 60s, while to the south, PWs are ~2 inches with dew points in the low-mid 70s. Model consensus actually suggest some drying in the lower and mid-levels this evening--enough for some clearing.
Combined with a theta-e ridge and LLJ, expect to see some redevelopment of light rain showers/t-storms over the northeast CWA tonight.
220 PM CDT Wed Jul 21 2021 Scattered showers and thunderstorms slowly cropping up across the region this afternoon as a weak upper low remains over the region. Overall, heights increasing slightly as the 500 mb trough deepens over the eastern seaboard. That trough is countered by ridging in the west, leaving much of the forecast region in an area of weak flow/very little forcing. Another humid day, with heat indices pushing into the low to mid 100s in the afternoon, mainly west of I55 and south of I-20.
WV sat pix show some very dry air impinging upon our northernmost counties, also roughly indicating the location of the approaching surface cold front.
Otherwise, the low clouds that were in place across the area this morning have largely scattered out. With decreased cloud coverage, highs should top out in the mid-upper 80s, and areas to the north may actually end up warmer than those to the south. The low-levels will remain nearly saturated and could lead to a decent set up for fog overnight tonight. Due to this, have the higher PoPs across southwestern portions of the area on Thursday. This precipitation will still be diurnally driven and will feature the highest PoPs during the peak heating of the afternoon and decreasing PoPs overnight.
A weak upper level trough is just offshore and there is low level onshore flow. The trough will move inland to the north tonight with weak upper level ridge beginning to build offshore.
Morning update: An incoming upper trough combined with elevated instability has triggered abundant lightning this morning from the Palouse up into the Central Panhandle Mountains with some strikes also noted around the Spokane area with one strike up near Bonners Ferry. A tightening pressure gradient with cold front passage will result in increasing westerly winds through the afternoon and into this evening with gusts of 20-30 kts expected.
202 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021 A cold front is sweeping through central Pennsylvania, producing showers and thunderstorms. Behind the front, cooler and refreshingly less humid conditions are expected for the rest of the work week before heat and humidity make a comeback for the weekend.
That being said, the probability of storms becoming severe is on the lower side, but the impact could be substantial should one or two grow to the point of becoming severe.
A favorable monsoon pattern remains in place with anticyclonic high pressure centered over the four corners and ample moisture to fuel daytime showers and thunderstorms.
410 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021 A dry cold front will cross the area tonight into Thursday.
HRRR and FV3 look a bit more substantial than yesterday afternoon, particularly highlighting the higher terrain of Clark, Lincoln, and Mohave counties. Solar insolation will ignite convection over the higher terrain with storms developing along outflow boundaries as they push through the valleys in the afternoon and evening hours today and Thursday.
Very isolated showers and storms near the TN/AL stateline today were caused by an upper level low to our southwest which was drifting slowly westward away from TN.
KED The mid/upper ridge over the Central Great Basin area will gradually shift eastward over the Central Rockies today.
248 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021 Dry weather is expected to continue for several more days as Indiana remains within an area of northwest flow around a broad ridge across the Intermountain West. Afternoon temperatures and humidity will be fairly reasonable for this time of the year with highs topping out in the low to mid 80s with dew points in the low to mid 60s.
The cold front will slide south across the area this afternoon into evening and is forecast to be over TN late tonight. Low temps tonight generally in the low to mid 60s, with some upper 50s possible in northern sheltered valleys. Another dry day expected on Thursday with high pressure building in from the N/NE. Hazy partly cloudy skies expected with afternoon high temps in the low to mid 80s.
257 PM CDT Wed Jul 21 2021 Current satellite imagery shows the upper level ridge slowly pushing into the region. While this usually indicates an increased chance for rain, the position and structure of the ridge will prevent any organized convection from starting.
120 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021 Dry and slightly cooler today behind a cold front. A surface cold front is sagging south of the area with high pressure building back in behind it. The low clouds are moving in from the north as a result of low-level moisture being trapped under the stable inversion. Otherwise, expect mild and dry conditions today and tonight with northerly winds bringing slightly cooler temperatures.
A weak upper level low is also situated atop the region, with a weak stationary boundary noted at the surface.
248 PM CDT Wed Jul 21 2021 Another quiet day across the area with the mid-level ridge stretching from the southwest CONUS into the central Plains. The focus remains on building heat and humidity the rest of the forecast period as the ridge remains in place across the center of the country.
The potential will likely gradually shift off to our southeast Thursday night as the better low level forcing shifts northeast and the mid level features ride to our southeast with a bit of ridging poking into the area.
Thursday continues the trend of high pressure ridging as pockets of vorticity advection moves across the western portion of the forecast area bringing about another afternoon and evening chances of showers and thunderstorms.
154 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021 High pressure builds in by this afternoon, providing dry conditions with near or below seasonal temperatures. Bubble of high pressure shifts further south on Thursday and will position itself directly over the state of Ohio Thursday morning. Temperatures look to be slightly below normal with Thursday's highs generally in the lower 80s.
A reinforcement of the mid level ridge will bring another warm day across the CWA with widespread low to upper 90s. The hotter areas will have the lower dewpoints for tomorrow, limiting the apparent temperatures.
457 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021 A cold front is sweeping through central Pennsylvania, producing showers and thunderstorms. Behind the front, cooler and refreshingly less humid conditions are expected for the rest of the work week before heat and humidity make a comeback for the weekend.
1135 AM MDT Wed Jul 21 2021 Western CONUS ridge will remain in place supporting hot and mainly dry conds in the period most places. Weak ridge topping impulses combined with bouts of monsoon moisture will support isold TS at times. Diurnal heating combined with LL moisture will be sufficient for isolated storms via mid ridge convergence.
1221 PM CDT Wed Jul 21 2021 (Today and tonight) Dry and slightly cooler weather is in store for today.
An upper level trough will remain persistent over the eastern US through much of the weekend. Temperatures in the low 70s.
Morning update: An incoming upper trough combined with elevated instability has triggered abundant lightning this morning from the Palouse up into the Central Panhandle Mountains with some strikes also noted around the Spokane area with one strike up near Bonners Ferry. JW 12Z TAFS: A cold front will push across the Inland Northwest today. A tightening pressure gradient with cold front passage will result in increasing westerly winds through the afternoon and into this evening with gusts of 20-30 kts expected.
Will need to keep an eye on how quickly temperatures drop off, as incoming mid and upper level clouds may help keep temperatures a touch warmer in spots overnight. Otherwise, winds will remain light overnight as we remain under the influence high pressure moving southeast across the western Great Lakes. The potential will likely gradually shift off to our southeast Thursday night as the better low level forcing shifts northeast and the mid level features ride to our southeast with a bit of ridging poking into the area.
Dry weather is expected to continue for several more days as Indiana remains within an area of northwest flow around a broad ridge across the Intermountain West. Afternoon temperatures and humidity will be fairly reasonable for this time of the year with highs topping out in the low to mid 80s with dew points in the low to mid 60s.
1009 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021 An upper level trough will remain persistent over the eastern US through much of the weekend. Overnight lows will be in the low 70s.
This activity was drifting to the SSW, being pushed out of the area by high pressure building over the southern Great Lakes.
801 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021 A cold front cross the area tonight. Cooler and drier air returns as high pressure builds in from the northwest for the late week period. The surface cold front is starting to enter northern portions of the CWA and will drop southward tonight. Lows tonight range from the mid 60s N to the low 70s SE.
Upper level trough continues to hold over the mid Atlantic and northeast with upper level ridge in place over the nation's mid section. Weak frontal boundary draped along the tail end of the trough axis continues to wash out and lose its characteristics with each passing day.
Thursday, mid to upper level low pressure across W and NW Texas will continue to provide sufficient weakness over the local area and combine with a surge of low level moisture moving into SE Texas from the Gulf to produce another round of showers and thunderstorms. By early afternoon, storms will develop further inland and intensify as temperatures reach the low 90s.
Seasonable temperatures will trend warmer across interior portions of northwest California this weekend. Upper troughing is forecast to persist over the NERN PAC for another 24 hours.
Overnight, isolated thunderstorms will form along a warm frontal boundary.
1044 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021 A dry cold front will cross the area tonight into Thursday.
835 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021 A dry cold front will cross the area tonight into Thursday.
Low temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 60s. broad upper level ridging continues across the area with 850mb temperatures warming another 5F to 8F yielding high temperatures in the low 90s to upper 90s. Heat index values will be within a few degrees of the high temperatures. Low temperatures are expected to be in the low 60s to around 70.
949 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021 Cooler and refreshingly less humid conditions will return for the remainder of the work week. As the cold front continues to slip to our south overnight, lower dewpoints will finally make it into the Lower Susq Valley. Quite refreshing for late-July! High pressure will build in from the Great Lakes on Thursday, bringing plenty of sunshine, comfortable humidity, and temperatures that are a few degrees below normal. Highs will range from the low 70s across the northern mtns to the low 80s in the valleys of southern PA, and humidity will be more comfortable than it has been in some time. A warm front will slowly approach from the west beginning on Fri, bringing with it a slight chance of showers and storms to the NW.
548 PM CDT Wed Jul 21 2021 Current satellite imagery shows the upper level ridge slowly pushing into the region. While this usually indicates an increased chance for rain, the position and structure of the ridge will prevent any organized convection from starting.
For cloud cover, the area still seeing a veil of high-based smoke from the fires out west, along with some mid/high cloud drifting east from the vicinity of the trough to the west. Showers/isolated convection churning in the vicinity of the trough over eastern Colorado, but dissipating with eastward movement. Low temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 60s. broad upper level ridging continues across the area with 850mb temperatures warming another 5F to 8F yielding high temperatures in the low 90s to upper 90s. Heat index values will be within a few degrees of the high temperatures. Low temperatures are expected to be in the low 60s to around 70.
649 PM CDT Wed Jul 21 2021 (This evening through Thursday) Late this afternoon, West Central Texas was between a large upper ridge to the northwest and a closed upper low to the southeast. Overnight, this upper low will retrograde northwestward and become more elongated as it moves over the western half of the state. By tomorrow afternoon, daytime heating and slightly better dynamics from the upper low should help to generate better chances for pulse-type showers and a few thunderstorms.
Another area of showers and thunderstorms has developed around Houston and San Antonio in association with a warm front. Increase in coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected for Thursday with better forcing becoming available as the mid-upper level low tracks west across the state. Showers and storms will be possible for the western CWA during the afternoon hours as the low continues its westward progression.
924 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021 A cold front crossing the area this evening will move offshore overnight.
940 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021 Another weak cold front will move slowly south through the area overnight through early Thursday.
626 PM CDT Wed Jul 21 2021 (This evening through Thursday) Retrograding closed upper low passing to our south should have little impact on our weather today. Visual observations and HRRR smoke model indicate wildfire smoke moving westward across our area in tandem with the aforementioned upper low.
Temps were a degree or two warmer than yesterday however humidity levels were still relatively low. Some weak upper level energy in Arkansas, combined with some slight moisture return from the south and cooler mid level temps will allow for a few isolated showers or storms across far southern Missouri (mainly south of Highway 60),during the afternoon and evening Thursday. Highs will be a degree or two warmer than today, generally in the upper 80s.
Otherwise, partly cloudy skies with low temperatures dropping to the lower to mid 70s.
1030 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021 Currently - A surface through mid level ridge extends westward across South Florida and the Florida Keys. The combination of the nearby ridge axis and day time heating over Florida has caused light winds to become variable with a col in the Lower Keys. Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to dominate Keys weather through the overnight period. A ridge across South Florida and the Keys and a col near south Florida will result in winds generally being east to southeast for much of the area.
Very isolated showers and storms near the TN/AL state line today were caused by an upper level low to our southwest which was drifting slowly westward away from TN.
4 INCHES WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS. /ISSUED 251 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015/ AS THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY, WITH A TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING WEST INTO THE BAHAMAS, A SUBTLE SHRTWV WILL BE FORCED NORTH, INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA MONDAY.
1005 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
1135 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER IOWA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DEVELOPING BY THIS EVENING.
1132 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2015 AVIATION A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION.
A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL STILL BE QUITE A PLEASANT DAY AS THE FRONT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES DON'T ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 2 PM OR SO. THE HIGH COUNTRY SHOULD SEE STEADY INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE SEVERAL DEGS WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH WARMEST READINGS IN BREEZY AREAS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. MODELS SHOW A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY AROUND MIDDAY AND A GRADUAL SHIFT TO EAST- NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO MONDAY EVENING WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
303 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2015 Will start the day on the east side of an upper ridge centered over the Pacific coast.
1147 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2015 A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FA AT 20Z. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE FA THIS EVENING AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ARRIVES.
DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS.
WHILE COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN BEHIND OUR DEPARTING FRONTAL SYSTEM. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER AIR ALOFT AND A DECREASE IN THE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER MY HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT.
UP TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN/FAR EASTERN ZONES.
HIGHS WILL WARM UP TO THE LOW 30S SOUTH OF HIGHWAY TWO. HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING SINCE SATURATION IS BELOW /WARMER/ THAN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER SO ICE CRYSTAL IN THE CLOUD LAYER. BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED ESPECIALLY IF FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPS THIS MORNING WHEN CONDITIONS IN A FEW SPOTS WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. EXCEPT ALONG THE ARROWHEAD WHERE LOWS WILL DIP TO THE LOW TO MID TEENS. SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE TERMINAL AREAS DURING THE EVENING. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 58 36 58 39 / 0 0 0 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 55 35 56 40 / 0 0 0 40 OAK RIDGE, TN 54 36 55 40 / 0 0 0 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 50 32 53 36 / 0 0 0 50.
PUT OUT AN SPS MENTIONING FREEZING PRECIP BUT WILL MONTIOR IN CASE AN UPGRADE TO ADVISORY IS NEEDED.
445 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY DRAWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
920 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE STREAMING IN FROM THE EAST PACIFIC AROUND A WEAKENING RIDGE. THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY WHILE FLATTENING INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW FOR MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS A GOOD PORTIONS OF THE LOWER DESERTS TODAY AND MONDAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES REACH NEAR 14-15C AND 500MB HEIGHTS PEAK OUT NEAR 580DM.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE LATER PARTS OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SOME CONCERN FOR FREEZING FOG THIS MORNING. EXPECTING A DRY DAY TODAY AS SURFACE RIDGING HOLDS OVER THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS GRADUALLY MAKING ITS WAY EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES BUILDS INTO THE MID SOUTH AND OH VALLEY REGIONS. WITH THE LATTER HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODELS STILL SHOWING A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/SFC WAVE DEVELOPING OVER THIS AREA. FOLLOWED BY A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW THU NIGHT AS TEMPS FALL CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS TO THE CNTRL GULF STATES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD FOR BOTH KMSL AND KHSV.
335 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015 NORTH TEXAS /ALONG WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE COUNTRY/ CURRENTLY RESIDES BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH EXITING THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND A BROAD RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. EFFECTIVELY SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS.
WILL BE KEEPING THE MID STATE DRY PER SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES AND A RELATIVELY DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT PATTERN THRU TONIGHT. INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SWLY SFC FLOW BY THE AFTERNOON HRS TODAY AS GULF HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION WILL USHER IN AN EVEN WARMER AIRMASS TO THE MID STATE WITH UNSEASONABLE WARM HIGHS. A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO APPROACH WRN TN BY EARLY TUE MORNING. LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE AROUND FREEZING AS ATM MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE W TO E AHEAD OF THE NEXT RAINMAKER TO IMPACT MID STATE ON THU NIGHT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEG TILT TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH NW FLOW STRETCHING FROM THE PAC NW THROUGH THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE EAST COAST.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE COMMON MUCH OF THE DAY BEHIND AN EARLY TROUGH PASSAGE.