Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Thunderstorms will still be possible over the higher terrain, mainly south of highway 50. Temps will be a bit cooler tomorrow with temps being about 3-5F cooler than todays high temps. Best chance of storms tomorrow will once again be over the higher terrain, especially south of highway 50.
Hot and mostly dry conditions will continue the next several days as highs reach into the low to mid 90s for many valley locations.
The upper level low that has brought clouds to most of the region the past couple days will continue to pull off to the east across the arrowhead of MN this evening. Temperatures will climb into the low 80s along and west of the valley and upper 70s across the MN lakes and trees Monday afternoon.
128 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017 High pressure will gradually shift from southeastern Canada today to New England on Monday, bringing continued fair and cool weather to our region.
1229 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017 Convective complex over central Nebraska has developed just ahead of a cold front currently pushing into eastern Nebraska and northwest Iowa.
Lows in the low 50s and highs on Monday in the mid to upper 80s. Upper high builds over Las Vegas and remains anchored there through mid week with fast north to northwest flow over western Nebraska.
High pressure across the Great Basin will continue over the next few days.
229 PM MDT Sun Aug 27 2017 The strong upper level ridge is expected to persist over the region during the next couple of days.
A strong ridge north of our area (over the central Great Basin) is dominating our weather. Above average height and thickness values from the ridge means above average heat as well. With troughiness upstream through eastern states, we'll keep a ridge centered north of our area through most of the coming week.
219 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017 Canadian high pressure will continue to prevail through Monday providing dry weather and below normal temperatures. High pressure and riding aloft will remain over the region through Monday night and will keep dry weather in place. Temps are expected to rise into the low/mid 70s today, then fall into the uppr 40s/low 50s tonight. Temps will be similar to Sun, but slightly warmer over the Finger Lakes (reaching the mid 70s).
153 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017 The 09z water vapor loop and RAP analysis shows a broad mid-level trough and low building in from MN and western Ontario. Strong moisture transport and modest q-vector convergence and isentropic ascent ahead of the mid-level trough was supporting numerous showers across Upper Mi early this morning. The mid level low and trough will remain nearly stationary over the western cwa today as continued q-vect convergence and isentropic ascent ahead of it will support scattered to numerous showers across the fcst area.
438 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017 For tonight, a cold front will move across the OK and TX Panhandles. Dry weather is then anticipated Monday night through next Sunday as northerly flow prevails around the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge of high pressure progged to anchor iteslf over the western states.
Cold front will be passing over northern-half of Oklahoma this evening and into the overnight hours with scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA near it. The MCS could disrupt/influence what happens later this afternoon and evening with storm development near the cold front. Otherwise, models still show storms developing near the cold front late this afternoon/early evening affecting parts of northern Oklahoma then rain chances expand south tonight as the cold front moves across the area. /issued 345 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017/ An upper trough will pass to the northeast of Oklahoma this evening and overnight, but sufficiently close to bring a front into the state. As it drifts farther south early Monday, any support from the trough will be moving farther away to the northeast leaving the lingering front though the state Monday to give low rain chances.
The cold front was located further north across central/ southeast Kansas. Lingering showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two will be possible across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas during the day Monday before upper trough axis shifts east of the region and as drier air filters in behind front.
Given subsidence aloft and the lack of any discernible weakness in the upper ridge the main forcing mechanism appears to be the boundary itself.
125 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017 Upper level trough/low over northern MN will drop southward through WI today and tonight and send a weak cold front southeastward through our area this afternoon and tonight. Scattered showers and storms will move into portions of northeast and central MO and west central IL later this morning and this afternoon ahead of the cold front, then shift southeastward into the St Louis metro area, southeast MO and southwest IL tonight.
1133 AM MDT Sun Aug 27 2017 High pressure is firmly in control over the Intermountain West and will continue to expand with heights rising over the next 24 to 36 hours. It will be difficult to budge this high without a major shift in the pattern.
439 PM MDT Sun Aug 27 2017 As expected, enough moisture and lift occurred under the high pressure to bring some weak convection this afternoon. Almost no change for tomorrow as the center of high pressure will remain over central Utah. High pressure remains in control with convection kicking off each afternoon and evening.
311 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017 A cold front extending from nw WI into eastern IA and nw MO will weaken as it pushes into central IL tonight, bringing increasing chances of showers and a few thunderstorms. Currently more widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms were nw of the IL river at mid afternoon ahead of the cold front and pushing slowly eastward toward the IL river. Lows tonight in the lower 60s.
With more sunshine, temperatures Monday will be slightly warmer, with highs in the mid 80s. They diverge somewhat by the end of the week, with the EC farther east in northern LA/southern AR, and the GFS closer to the Metroplex with the center of the low pressure center.
Locally across the lower Ohio Valley, dry conditions and low humidity remain in place this afternoon. Mid afternoon readings have reached the lower to middle 80s with light easterly winds. An area of low pressure and a weak cold front currently across the Upper Midwest will push east toward the area tonight. Plan on warmer temperatures tonight thanks to limited radiational cooling. Lows will mainly stay in the lower/middle 60s. As the upper level low and surface boundary approach the region tomorrow and with additional daytime heating, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop.
Dew points are up across the area today compared to last few days, with readings ranging from the low to mid 60s. Aloft, an upper level low is moving into the western Great Lakes, with flattened flow across the Ohio Valley.
The highest rainfall amounts seen so far have been in Angelina County where upwards of 4-5 inches have occurred since yesterday.
238 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017 As of mid afternoon, a cold front extended from northern Missouri to central Kansas. An upper trough was over the Upper Mississippi Valley, with a trailing pv anomaly axis southwestward to north-central Kansas.
252 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017 With high pressure settling in over the forecast area this afternoon through Monday, we will be looking at no precipitation and light winds through the early periods of the forecast. Could once again see some shallow ground fog Monday morning with clear skies and light winds, but it should be less widespread than we saw this morning due to a little drier air mass over the area with dewpoints dropping into the lower 50s vs.
We lowered dewpoints to the lower 30s this afternoon mainly in Wyoming. The upper level trough, which brushed far eastern Wyoming and the western Nebraska panhandle yesterday, is continuing to move east into the central plains this morning. A large MCS has formed ahead of the trough axis and is moving through central Nebraska bringing very heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Otherwise, northerly flow across southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska will result in slightly cooler temperatures today with highs in the upper 70's to middle 80's. Very similar conditions will exist on Monday with high temperatures a few degrees warmer as the upper level high drifts eastward and intensifies.
Surface analysis this afternoon places Tropical Storm Harvey near Victoria, Texas while a weak cold front is located over portions of Iowa and Kansas.
249 PM MDT Sun Aug 27 2017 A westerly flow aloft along with high pressure will continue to produce warm to hot and very dry conditions across the region into the beginning of the workweek. Large ridge of high pressure will bring continued warming temperatures, dry conditions, and high fire danger through at least Monday. The ridge flattens somewhat on Monday, perhaps bringing some increased westerly breezes at times along with some of the driest air of the season to the area, resulting in localized critical fire weather conditions.
An upper level low will slowly drift southeast across the arrowhead of MN region today. An upper high over UT area with a Canadian Rockies ridge will bring a quiet weather pattern to the CONUS northern tier the first half of the work week. Did pull the low POPs over the northern valley for Tue evening although their is a chance for some isold activity along intl border from Langdon to Roseau. Week will be much warmer and slightly above seasonal norms through the work week. MVFR CIGs at GFK TVF and BJI will continue to improve as CIGs lift and stratus SCTs out from west to east as high pressure continues to nose into the area. High pressure will bring light winds overnight with the expectation for fog to redeveloped overnight at BJI.
Mid level cyclone continues to slowly churn eastward from the western Great Lakes.
The synoptic cold front resides somewhere around the I-70 corridor and is forecasted to continue southward through the evening although the convergence appears rather weak. This is also where a majority of the high res models show the fog potential. Upper troughing occurs across the Great Lakes while expansive ridge builds over the western CONUS results in northeast Kansas remaining on the dry and mild side.
254 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017 Models aggressive with convective development along weak cold front late this afternoon through this evening, primarily affecting northwest parts of Oklahoma.
127 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017 The forecast area will be between a frontal boundary off the Southeast Coast and high pressure ridging southward along the Appalachians through tonight.
Developing low pressure to our north, off the northeast Florida and Georgia coast, was keeping south/southwest winds elevated locally. Low pressure is forecast to move slowly north along the Georgia/South Carolina coast. Low pressure will move northeast of Hatteras early in the period. The low should push a weak frontal boundary southward into north Florida which will probably cause a band of moisture convergence to linger across the north half of our area, with likely POPs continuing. The Atlantic high pressure ridge will nose into south/central Florida through the period while weakening. Temps look slightly above normal with mid 90s interior and low 90s coast as ridge aloft builds into the area. Developing low pressure near the Georgia/South Carolina coast will maintain a tightened pressure gradient across our waters, with southwest winds around 20 knots continuing offshore, primarily north of Sebastian Inlet.
Further upstream, a deepening upper trough will slowly push through the western Great Lakes. Mid level cyclone continues to slowly churn eastward from the western Great Lakes.
316 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017 Breezy north winds across the eastern CWA this afternoon will diminish after sunset as high pressure moves over the region. Looking at mostly clear skies and light winds overnight, so undercut SuperBlend a bit and sided more towards cooler MOS guidance. With high pressure remaining in place on Monday, look for quiet conditions with mostly sunny skies and light winds. With 850mb temps nudging up to around +20C to +22C from the James River and points west, looking for highs to be warmer than Sunday, with readings in the mid to upper 80s.
407 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low near KDLH, resulting in cyclonic srly flow through the cwa. Showers will dissipate tonight as low pressure slides south into WI, but lingering low-level moisture will maintain IFR to LIFR conditions in stratus and fog with even VLIFR conditions at IWD. Southeast winds to near 30 knots late today will diminish to 15 to 25 knots tonight as low pressure weakens and sags to the south.
154 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017 A ridge of high pressure will remain over Pennsylvania through the beginning of the week. Weakening low pressure in the upper atmosphere over the Midwest will lift through the region by the middle of the week, followed by a cold front crossing the area late in the week. High pressure retreats ENE of the region on Monday, allowing return flow of moisture to approach from the south and west. Highs on Monday afternoon will range from the low to mid 70s in most areas. Ensemble runs continue to show the potential of a few showers Tue/Wed, as the remnants of midwestern upper low lift through the area.
329 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017 Closed low over Minnesota is slowly digging south and will reach southern WI/northern IL on Monday morning. Leading the low, a corridor of enhanced divergence and dynamic forcing aloft is supporting an area of poorly organized light showers extending from southern Lake MI to the U. Dewpoints over the upper Ohio River Valley in the low to mid 60s are indicative of a moist airmass that will be drawn northwestward during the day Monday as as the aforementioned trough begins acquires an increasingly neutral tilt. Showers will spread north/northwest as the moisture axis becomes entrained in the cyclone.
1119 AM MDT Sun Aug 27 2017 Strong upper ridging has set up across the western CONUS with quiet northwest flow aloft over the northern Great Plains. Dry weather is expected today and will continue through the first half of this week as the western CONUS ridge moves very little.
151 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017 Expect increasing clouds this afternoon, and maybe even a sprinkle or two as a low pressure system moves into the area. Highs Monday will be in the low to mid 70's. Weak warm advection with light low level flow veering more southeasterly should allow temperatures to trend a few degrees warmer than yesterday otherwise.
Hot on Monday, then a bit cooler, but still warm and dry this week.
310 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017 A ridge of high pressure will remain over Pennsylvania through Monday. Weakening low pressure in the upper atmosphere over the Midwest will lift through the region by the middle of the week, followed by a strong cold front crossing the area late in the week. High pressure retreats ENE of the region on Monday, allowing return flow of moisture to approach from the south and west. Highs on Monday afternoon will range from the low to mid 70s in most areas. Large high pressure over New England, along with a complex upper level low to the west, and a developing low across the southeast states will result in a cool northeast to southeast flow of air across the region Monday into Wed.
Highs are another story however with the drier air allowing for a larger diurnal range and cooler lows will not necessarily translate into cooler highs.
Somewhat cooler air will filter southward into western Kansas behind the boundary tonight dropping lows well down into the 60s(F) across the area. Upper level high pressure will continue in the western United States while an upper level cyclone digs into the upper Midwest and Harvey wallows in southern Texas.
A strong ridge of high pressure will remain centered across the Great Basin through early week, with southeast Idaho situated on the northern fringes of this anticyclone. As such, continue to carry isolated thunderstorms from the Central Mountains southward across the Eastern Magic Valley to the Highlands of Cassia county, with this activity working eastward Mon night while gradually weakening.
331 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017 The 09z water vapor loop and RAP analysis shows a broad mid-level trough and low building in from MN and western Ontario. Strong moisture transport and modest q-vector convergence and isentropic ascent ahead of the mid-level trough was supporting numerous showers across Upper Mi early this morning. The mid level low and trough will remain nearly stationary over the western cwa today as continued q-vect convergence and isentropic ascent ahead of it will support scattered to numerous showers across the fcst area. Showers will dissipate tonight as low pressure slides south into WI, but lingering low-level moisture will maintain IFR to LIFR conditions in stratus and fog with even VLIFR conditions at IWD.
250 PM MDT Sun Aug 27 2017 Current surface analysis shows weak high pressure over the area, with mostly sunny skies and light winds. Upper level analysis shows ridge building over the western states, with northwest flow over the Northern Plains. As ridge builds slightly east early this week, temps will rise to above average levels.
High pressure ridge centered over the New England states will continue to wedge itself down the eastern seaboard over he next few days. This ridge will keep the main developing low center just off the GA/FL coast moving NE. This ridge will also keep the area in stable easterly flow so mainly only expecting partly to mostly cloudy skies and maybe some light showers over southeastern portions of the state. With the easterly flow temps will also continue to cool with highs mainly in the lower to middle 80s and some 70s in the NE GA mountains.
/Tonight through Monday/ Cold front has been working its way through the area today, and has pushed into the far southeastern portion of the forecast area. Otherwise skies should clear some this evening, with low level stratus expected to spread into the far north/east overnight as the main upper low that is currently spinning over northern MN drop south and east into the Great Lakes region through Monday night. Therefore expect the far northeast to remain beneath stratus into Monday, with the clouds beginning to lift and erode into the afternoon hours as drier air works its way into the area and the upper level low moves east.
Greater rainfall potential focused from late morning Monday onward, as a deeper plume of moisture works into the region within the eastern expanse of slowly approaching low pressure. Closed low over Minnesota is slowly digging south and will reach southern WI/northern IL on Monday morning. Leading the low, a corridor of enhanced divergence and dynamic forcing aloft is supporting an area of poorly organized light showers extending from southern Lake MI to the U. Dewpoints over the upper Ohio River Valley in the low to mid 60s are indicative of a moist airmass that will be drawn northwestward during the day Monday as as the aforementioned trough begins acquires an increasingly neutral tilt. Showers will spread north/northwest as the moisture axis becomes entrained in the cyclone.
235 PM PDT Sun Aug 27 2017 A very hot weather pattern is expected across the Mojave Desert Region much of the coming week as high pressure parks over southern Nevada and surrounding states. Limited moisture circulating around the area of high pressure will lead to isolated showers or thunderstorms over the mountains each afternoon.
High temperatures in the low to upper 80s. CWA stays downstream of a highly amplified ridge aloft.
152 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017 Aviation A weak area of low pressure over Minnesota will track slowly southeast today and into the Great Lakes Region for Monday.
Tropical Storm Harvey continues to spin nearly stationary across SE Texas with a highly amplified ridge across the Western CONUS. As previously mentioned, there will continue to be a few isolated to scattered diurnal showers and storms throughout the remainder of the afternoon and evening thanks to the low level convergence. Overnight lows will be a little bit cooler than last night with drier easterly to southeasterly flow setting up. A jet streak will develop to the north as the trough pivots across the Great Lakes.
142 PM MDT Sun Aug 27 2017 A cold front that moved south across Wyoming overnight brought extensive smoke from ongoing wildfires in Montana and Idaho on north to northwest winds.
Low level CAD ridge will continue to bring a drier easterly flow through the Carolinas into north GA and northeast AL, especially on Monday.
We will continue to be in between upper level structures with a big upper level ridge over the western U. and an upper level ridge near the Bahamas.
/22/ A nice day has unfolded across the region as high pressure moves in at the surface. This has resulted in sunny skies and temperatures ranging from the lower 60s across the Highway 82 corridor to the lower 70s across the Highway 98 corridor. Another very nice day is expected tomorrow with plenty of sunshine and highs in the lower 70s across northern counties to mid 70s in my southern counties and parishes. /28/ A near zonal flow pattern will exist at the beginning of the period with a frontal boundary at the surface working it way south through the lower MS valley. Though the forecast area will be in the warm sector ahead of the boundary, light winds will have had a hard time dislodging the cooler/drier airmass as dewpoints remain in the 40s/50s.
634 PM CDT Fri Mar 30 2018 Breezy southwesterly winds have returned to the area today as a ridge of high pressure at the surface moved eastward across the Middle Mississippi Valley area. A decent pressure gradient will remain in place across the region tonight as low pressure approaches from the High Plains leading to breezy southerly winds and more mild overnight low temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 40s for most locations, although some locations may remain more mild. A cold front will usher in much cooler air on Sat, although much of southern Kansas will remain above normal with a fropa anticipated after 18Z for much of south central and southeast KS where highs could climb to around 70 near the OK state line.
High pressure will remain over the Southwest through tomorrow as upper level moisture continues to stream over the region ahead of a low pressure system situated off the coast of California.
We close out March a few degrees warmer than today with a few locals approaching March 31st record highs.
/issued 222 PM EDT Fri Mar 30 2018/ Light rain continues to exit the area as a cold front pushes through north and central Georgia. Dry high pressure already building into the area will hold into the weekend.
955 PM EDT Fri Mar 30 2018 A cold front will move across the area this evening with high pressure building into the region Saturday.
651 PM MDT Fri Mar 30 2018 Skies are mostly clear this afternoon with the short term focus being on the approaching cold frontal boundary that pushes southwestward into the region on Saturday. This will set the region up with near surface upslope flow that pushes the area of higher dewpoint air into the higher terrain to the west ahead of a short wave trough aloft expected to move east of the Rockies and across the central high plains Saturday night.
Some patchy frost may also form across the higher elevations of the Upper Cumberland Region.
713 PM CDT Fri Mar 30 2018 For the ArkLaTex, Chamber day with light NE winds becoming vrb overnight as high pressure slides E our winds will return from E/SE and then S/SW for Saturday with speeds 10-15G24KT.
A cold front sinks into NE Kansas late tonight and tomorrow, setting the stage for a cold end to the Easter weekend. Broad cyclonic flow dominates the CONUS through the period owing to a strong upper low centered over Hudson Bay. For tonight, increasing WAA on a 60-80 kt LLJ and a tightening pressure gradient ahead of the lower tropospheric trough will keep lows from falling much below 50 degrees.