Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY ALONG WITH LOCALLY BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER OREGON ON FRIDAY ALLOWING THE AIR MASS TO GRADUALLY DRY AND WARM.
INCREASING DPVA AND AN ACCOMPANYING POCKET OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE AN ADDITIONAL COMPONENT OF DESTABILIZATION AND MORE FOCUSED ASCENT FOR TODAY. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND CORRESPONDING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOADING WITHIN THE DEEPEST CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL AGAIN PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS. SOLID HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT GIVEN LIKELY LIMITED STORM MOTION WITHIN THIS HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT. READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S. EVEN WITH THE STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA (1025 MB). AS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST/EAST FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT.
AS UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
15Z DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED THUNDERSTORM THREAT ON TRACK.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOW A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
TOWARDS THE HIGHER GUIDANCE. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM TODAY. A FEW MORE DAYS OF SUMMER WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE STATE.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH THE LOW LEVEL WEST FLOW BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE DROP TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS AS A WEAK TROF ALONG THE SERN SEABOARD/NE FL COMBINES WITH THE WRN EXTENSION OF A WEAK ATLC RIDGE TO GENERATE A LIGHT TO GENTLE SW/W BREEZE OVER THE LCL ATLC THIS MORNING.
The upper level ridge will move very little with the ridge axis falling southwest to northeast across our CWA today. High resolution models again try to generate isolated showers this afternoon and evening, but with the ridge basically centered on top of the CWA, this would be unexpected.
SFC DATA SHOWS WEAK LOW PRES NEAR THE SE GA COAST WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING SW INTO THE FL BIG BEND AND INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. WITH WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER SW GA IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE.
1044 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL U.
590DAM HIGH EXISTS ACROSS EAST TEXAS WITH RIDGE EXTENDING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE SW TO NE ORIENTED UA RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. TO GRADUALLY SHIFT JUST A BIT TO THE EAST BY TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND DUE TO A NW PACIFIC DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING SSE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS IS ALL DUE TO THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE AND LINGERING AFFECTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW. THE LOW IS NOTICEABLY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. AND COOLER TEMPS THROUGH H7. MAINTAINED NEAR PERSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. OF RAIN CHANCES AS THE UPPER RIDGE LOOSELY CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS ASSERTS ITSELF MORE STRONGLY.
/ISSUED 353 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/ An upper ridge will remain over the area through the weekend resulting in a continuation of above normal temperatures along with minimal rain chances.
Remainder of the day looks to be a carbon copy of the past couple with high pressure controlling our weather.
BUT IT WILL EVENTUALLY BE OVERSHADOWED BY RIDGING BUILDING OVER TEXAS.
818 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS COOLER TEMPS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OVER FLORIDA WILL SHIFT WEST INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE UPPER TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS BELOW THE WARMER GFS MOS GUIDANCE. UPPER RIDGE WILL STRETCH FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST NE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND REGION. UPPER TROUGH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO GENERALLY REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY.
Otherwise, expect conditions to dry out today as an upper level ridge axis builds over the area.
631 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015 UPPER RIDGING AND WARM AND HUMID AIR REMAINS IN PLACE WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF ANY CHANGES. COULD BE EVEN COOLER IF MORE CLOUDS HANG AROUND AS IN YESTERDAY SINCE WERE NOW INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER. WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR SKY AND HEAT INDICES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S IN THE AFTERNOON MOST LOCATIONS.
605 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015 ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IN STORE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION. DEW POINTS OVER OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SD ZONES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN CENTERED IN SOUTHWEST B. THE LOW WILL BEGIN ITS MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT AND CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH FRIDAY AS ENERGY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW DIGS SOUTH. THE LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN OREGON ON FRIDAY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL SD. WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING BEHIND IT ACROSS WESTERN ND. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR THE WARM FRONT. WITH BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHEAST WY EARLY SUNDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS TO THE MID 40S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. COOLER AIR IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
306 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 SUNNY AND COOLER WEATHER ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.
WESTERN PORTION WILL LIKELY SEE MUCH MORE SPOTTY FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
LEAVING US BRIEFLY UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FOR SUNDAY.
WILL JUST BE LOOKING AT COOLER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
1228 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 Freeze warning continues early this morning with the lowest temperatures currently of 28 in UIN, 30 in 3LF and 31 degrees in COU. GKS Southerly flow will increase across the area tonight as a trof deepens over the Great Plains and high pressure moves over the Eastern Seaboard. Scattered to numerous showers will likely continue after 12Z as low level moisture continues to increase with continuing warm advection on the low level jet which really doesn't weaken much between 12Z and 18Z. The focus will shift further north/northwest Sunday afternoon as the cold front noses into our northwestern counties.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WAS OCCURRING NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER. THERE WERE VERY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND THE WESTERN HALF OF MINNESOTA. BUT CONTINUE OVER FAR NORTHERN MN AS ANOUTHE FRAILY STRONG VORT MAX ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THE HIGHEST SNOFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE IN THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE ADDED OROGHRAPHIC LIFT WILL BUILD UP SNOWFALL TOALS.
320 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE IN THE RIDGES WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT COULD SUPPORT ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THE EASTERNMOST ZONES AND THE RIDGES. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE EVERYWHERE AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND DRYING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A COLD NIGHT WITH VALUES FORECAST TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
1240 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 COMBINATION OF SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND UPPER LOW DIGGING ALONG CALIFORNIA COAST WILL HELP NUDGE LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN U.
DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST WITH MOST NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICTING A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF WEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING AND EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TOWARD MIDDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE DEEP AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT COLD AIR ALOFT AND RESULT IN LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH MORE CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REST OF OUR CWA LATER TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH OUR CWA.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LIGHT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TODAY. SECONDAY PUSH /700MB FRONT/ BRINGING IN COOLER AIR AND DROPPING TEMPS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A COOLER AIR MASS WILL MEAN COOLER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY.
ONE MORE VERY COLD NIGHT WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER INDIANA MOVES ON TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.
231 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES SPLIT FLOW STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH RIDGING BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE A STALLED FRONT HAS FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT AS A WARM FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS CURRENTLY NEAR ATWOOD AND HILL CITY. CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERLY PLAINS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE (PRESENTLY OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS) WILL ADVANCE SEWD INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW(SUN) MORNING. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
UPPER TROUGH FROM THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST AND WILL ALLOW WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING BAJA ON SUNDAY WILL OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AND PUSH EASTWARD SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
149 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
300 PM PDT SAT APR 9 2016 Cooler conditions with showers and a few isolated thunderstorms this weekend as low pressure moves across California and Nevada. The upper low over Southern CA is causing a broad area of diffluence, lift and instability from cold air aloft. Snow levels are currently around 9000 feet or higher, so only the highest peaks of the Sierra will see any accumulating snowfall. 50" or more as the deformation band pivots around the low with some moderate mid-level forcing as well.
1235 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 EARLY MORNING OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED RIDGE AXIS FROM WESTERN MN INTO NRN MO. AS THE LEE TROUGH CONTS TO DEEPEN TODAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LOCALLY AND WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. TMPS WILL ONLY BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN THOSE ON FRI WITH LESS MIXING AND ONLY A SLIGHT WARMING IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL WAA WILL CONT TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SOME MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE RETURN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE AREA/S WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A SLOW RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
Will transition to weak ridging aloft but an active week is in store.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR BUT WINDS WILL NOT SHOW THEIR TYPICAL DIURNAL DECREASE AS THE MSLP GRADIENT INCREASES WITH APPROACHING HIGH PLAINS TROUGH.
LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TINOT THE AREA BRING SNOW AND RAIN. ON THE LARGE-SCALE, THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A SLOWLY FILLING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U. , AS A NARROW UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL U. , AND A DEEPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
300 PM PDT SAT APR 9 2016 Cooler conditions with showers this weekend as low pressure moves across California and Nevada. The upper low over Southern CA is causing a broad area of diffluence, lift and instability from cold air aloft. Snow levels are currently around 9000 feet or higher, so only the highest peaks of the Sierra will see any accumulating snowfall. 50" or more as the deformation band pivots around the low with some moderate mid-level forcing as well.
A warm front is currently situated over southern/central Kansas. Several consecutive runs of the NAM and high-res convective resolving models suggest a fairly narrow but volatile environment along and ahead of a cold front Sunday afternoon in these areas. The first 1-3 hours will be the highest concern for severe weather, likely between 22-01Z, before a gradual evolution to more linear structures evolves as strong linear forcing along the front moves the convection south of the area. The overall tornado threat looks limited due to the lack of directional shear near the surface, but will have to closely monitor whether any preexisting outflow boundaries from morning convection or differential heating can augment the low-level wind fields.
405 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016 SHOWERS WITH A FEW T-STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AND ALSO ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 26 THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. STILL FEEL THAT WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO FROM DOUGLAS TO LUSK TO CHADRON AS THE COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO ENTER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE EASTERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 50 MPH WILL OCCUR ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR FROM ARLINGTON TO KIMBALL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BUT WILL STEADILY TRANSITION TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE SUNDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH. COULD CERTAINLY SEE A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY WITHIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGH SIERRA. HEAVY RAIN FELL IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVED THROUGH THE DISTRICT. THE FOCUS OF STORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE KERN COUNTY AREA TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST APPROACHES SOUTH CALIFORNIA. MODELS PLACE THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN SHOW ANOTHER SECONDARY UPPER LOW MOVING WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AT AROUND THE SAME TIME.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DRY COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH EARLIER TODAY HAS CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA AND IS SITTING OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT STRONG UPPER RIDGE SITS ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS. AN UPPER LOW ACROSS PAC OCEAN OFF THE CAL COAST IS RESULTING IN A REX BLOCK WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY SLOW DOWN THE PATTERN. SOME AREAS POSSIBLY CREEPING INTO THE LOW 80S. COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVNG WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NRLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS PRECIP SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH ENDING ACROSS THE CWA BY LATER SUN AFTN.
DIFFLUENCE WELL AHEAD OF THIS LOW IS SWEEPING EWD THROUGH EAST TEXAS. THE CONTINUATION OF DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL HELP THIN OUT THE LOW CLOUDS TOMORROW. REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S OUT WEST. NEXT PIECE OF THE H5 LOW BREAKS THROUGH THE RIDGE SUNDAY NIGHT.
211 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 THE SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 19Z INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS NOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TOWARD SOUTH ALABAMA AND A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WAS RIDGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. THE SHORT TERM MODELS PROGRESSIVELY MOVE THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA EAST OF THE REGION BY 12Z SUNDAY.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS RETREATING SLOWLY TO THE EAST WITH STRONG GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE AHEAD OF STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA IN CANADA. THIS CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR AS /COLD/ TROUGHING THAT HAS INFLUENCED THE REGION AS OF LATE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WESTERN CONUS.
AN UPPER LOW WILL PUSH INTO ARIZONA PUTTING COLORADO UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. SNOW LEVELS WILL ONLY REACH ABOUT 10KFT EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING FROM AN EXPECTED COLD FRONT. EXPECT UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGH PEAKS. WITH RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE LOWER MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT.
ahead of developing cold front that will stretch from northern MO into southwest KS. Daytime heating/convergence along advancing cold front will eventually lead to shower/storm development by late afternoon to early evening.
TO THE SOUTH OF A CLOSED 850MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND DOWNSTREAM OF AN OPEN WAVE OR TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW-LEVEL ATMOSPHERE AS SHOWN ON NAM TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS IS VERY DRY. MODELS DIFFER ON DEGREE OF INSTABILITY POOLING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH WITH LINGERING SHOWERS.
307 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 COOLER AIR HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION YESTERDAY. WHICH SHOULD HELP TEMPS WEST OF I65 STAY ABOVE FREEZING.
301 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT KEEPING US DRY BUT BLUSTERY AND COLD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD OF SUNDAY WITH FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER EXPECTED.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.
The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features an anomalous trough across much of the eastern CONUS. A transient area of surface ridging will build into the region this evening, quickly shifting east by 12Z Sunday. However, confidence is high that a hard freeze will occur over the northern Bluegrass, where low temperatures in the upper 20s (mid 20s in typically cooler spots) are expected. Forecast soundings suggest we may mix into some of the low-level jet, which could bring gusts around 40 mph at times late Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, the main warm advection precip will push to the NNE Sunday evening, but a cold front associated with an area of low pressure well to the north will slowly sag towards southern IN overnight. Overnight lows will be much milder, with readings expected in the low to mid 50s.
LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING SNOW AND RAIN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND STAGNANT. A DEEP TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE SW US PUSHING HEIGHTS UP DOWNSTREAM INTO THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY.
WINDS THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN STRONG AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ISSUES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR AN ELEVATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IF THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH HOWLING WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE TROUGH. THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD WILL BE A FAIRLY SIMPLE ONE WITH SOUTHEASTERLY PASSING HIGH PRESSURE AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY PRETTY FAST WARMING OVER A COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO STRONG UPPER RIDGING. THE MILD/WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
443 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER MY FAR WESTERN OHIO COUNTIES AND OVER THE HIGHEST RIDGES TO THE SOUTHEAST. UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE HIGHEST RIDGES. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE FAR WEST AND RIDGES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EXCEPT FOR THE RIDGE COUNTIES IN WV AND MD. THIS WILL SUPPORT A COLD NIGHT WITH VALUES FORECAST TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE.
307 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWRD OUT OF SW/S OK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN PASS OVERHEAD TOMORROW, AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SW CONTINUE NEAR SOCAL AND THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
234 PM PDT SAT APR 9 2016 A low pressure system will bring showers to the north state through the weekend with isolated thunderstorms possible. Low pressure area off the Southern California coast will continue to spread rain northward over parts of the northern interior. The low will slowly move inland over the next 24 hours with little change in the weather expected over Northern California.
A weak backdoor cold front will move in tonight and will bring cooler temperatures and easterly winds for Sunday.
230 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR THE MORE PROMINENT BAND OF SNOW TO WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE IN THE RIDGES WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT COULD CARRY AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES.
THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND FILTERING IN ADDITIONAL DRY AIR. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 3OS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKS BETWEEN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE EASTERN U. AND THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY LEAVING HIGHS AROUND 60S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BEFORE ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVES IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CLOUD COVER SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PREVAILING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOVES EAST TOWARD THE EAST COAST, AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS.
Increasing rain chances start late Sunday afternoon and evening as another upper trough moves east across the southwestern US. A dryline will set up off to the west and some upper level ascent with the approaching trough will help bring a chance for a few thunderstorms.
343 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 BROAD SUBSIDENCE WAS IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THIS MORNING/S UPPER TROUGH AND WELCOME RAINFALL. THE BROADER PICTURE ON SUNDAY WILL FEATURE SHALLOW UA RIDGING EXITING THE REGION AHEAD OF STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLIES AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WELL DOWNSTREAM OF A CLOSED LOW /CURRENTLY WEST OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS/. THIS INCREASED SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AND NORTHWARD- ADVANCING MOISTURE MAY RESEMBLE A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE SRN PANHANDLE THRU 00Z. LATEST DATA SHOWS TIGHT UPPER LOW SHOULD TRANSITION THE PANHANDLE WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE FEATURE.
227 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES SPLIT FLOW STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH RIDGING BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE A STALLED FRONT HAS FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT AS A WARM FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS CURRENTLY NEAR ATWOOD AND HILL CITY. CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERLY PLAINS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.