Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 432 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
1246 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015 EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING A BIT EAST BASED ON THE LATEST SOUNDING DATA. UNFORTUNATELY TEMPERATURES AT CURRENT FROM OUR WEST RIVER COUNTIES THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY ARE BELOW FREEZING. THERE MAY BE A WINDOW FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEFORE WARM ADVECTION/DAYTIME HEATING KICK TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE FREEZING.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 100 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS LATER TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR WEEKS END. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO HELP SUSTAIN WIND GUSTS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ACROSS THE RIDGE TOPS AND VALLEYS NEARBY. THEREFORE A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE RIDGE ZONES AND VALLEYS WITHIN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT VIA SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY CAUSE LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE RIDGES DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN UNTIL THE FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWIFTLY CROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
223 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015 A broad upper level trough is over the central conus today with west to northwest flow over the CWA. A weak cold front will move into the area on Thursday cooling temperatures down a few degrees but conditions are expected to remain dry.
239 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
135 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON THEN COOLER BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE REGION. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN ALABAMA IN REGION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/DEEP AND STRONG MOISTURE FLUX OFF GULF OF MEXICO. NAM MODEL CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SECONDARY WEAKER CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG COLD FRONT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
231 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA TOMORROW BRING WINDY CONDITIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. TGT GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE LOW CLDS AND WINDS UP OVRNGT. HIGHEST GUSTS WILL CONT TO BE OVER THE HIGHER RIDGES OF THE FINGER LAKES. AREA REMAINS IN A BROAD UPR TROF CNTRD OVER CNTRL LAKES.
THE LOW PRESSURE TROF HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE ZONES AND COLD AIR IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH WIND WARNING WAS BEEN CANCELLED AND WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL DIMINISH AS WELL. UPDATES THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN MADE FOR THE HIGH WIND WARNING CANCELLATION, FRESHENING OF THE WIND GRIDS, AND TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF CENTRAL MONTANA BUT BRISK WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
Temperatures beneath the low cloud deck should exhibit on limited warming this afternoon, although some warming will be occurring from the STL area east due to partial sunshine with the dry slot. The upper level low over eastern KS will open up and weaken as it lifts northeastward and moves through IA and WI later today. The rain should shift east of the forecast area later this morning, but will likely have patchy light rain or scattered light showers mainly across northeast MO and west central IL this morning associated with the upper level low.
250 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015 RAINFALL IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OVER NE AL/NW GA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THE STRONG 100-115 KTS SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK STRETCHING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC TO THE GREAT LAKES INDUCED BY THIS TROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE RESULTED IN RAPID SATURATION AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWATS) FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, AN EXPANSIVE POLAR JET STRETCHES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A BROAD RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE WEST COAST. THOUGH THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED OVER THE REGION, THE COOLER DRY AIR WILL LAG SOMEWHAT.
1133 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015 MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE WITH THE UPPER LOW AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS OVER THE STATE TODAY. COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE STATE DURING THE DAY WITH ONLY A LIMITED CLIMB IN TEMPERATURES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
1139 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE STRONG UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN KANSAS LIFTING NORTHEAST.
A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. LOWS THU MORNING WILL DIP INTO THE LOW 30S IN THE NW TO THE LOW 40S ACROSS TEXOMA.
352 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015 (Tonight and Thursday) Northwest flow is in place aloft as an upper level low moves north through eastern MN/western WI this afternoon. However, expect temperatures to be just a few degrees warmer than last night, so will not issue another Frost Advisory tonight. Although a cold front will move into the area early tomorrow morning, temperatures will still be relatively mild with highs from the lower 60s north of I-20 to near 70s along and south of the I-10 corridor.
Short range models indicate the closed off upper level low in eastern Kansas lifting northeast into the Upper Midwest today giving way to a zonal flow aloft across the Western High Plains. Another surge of colder air will move through western Kansas tonight behind yet another cold frontal passage. The lower 30s(F) are still possible in south central Kansas. Cooler temperatures can be expected Thursday as the aforementioned cold front pushes through western Kansas by this evening. Look for highs up into the upper 40s(F) to the lower/mid 50s(F) Thursday afternoon. A cold front will push southeast through the area around or after sunset.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
THURSDAY WARMER RETURN FLOW WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. AM THINKING THIS WARMER AIR WILL BE TOO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO WARM TEMPERATURES ABOVE TODAYS VALUES. THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT THANKS TO THE WARMER AIR MASS.
1258 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015 AVIATION A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY.
334 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015 The backside of the upper low that brought precip to Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas the past couple of days had finally exited the region. as the upper low continues to move over the Great Lakes region. a trailing upper level trof axis will move across the Southern Plains. This will push a weak surface cold front through the CWA tonight with little more than a wind shift out of the northwest expected. A cooler and drier airmass will push into the region for Thursday with afternoon temps several degrees cooler compared to todays high temps. High pressure then moves across the Southern Plains Thursday night allowing for temps thursday night to fall into the 30s/low 40s across the CWA.
COOLER TEMPERATURES. DRY NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING IN THE MID-LEVELS FINALLY TRANSLATING TO WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL THIN CIRRUS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE ORIENTED TO OUR WEST.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON.
High pressure will move across the area Thursday and Thursday night, resulting in dry, mild weather.
NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NORTH AND ALLOW DRY WEATHER TO SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AND OUR TYPICAL EVENTS ARE IN THE LOWER 570S RANGE IN NOVEMBER. 88 SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THEN WINDS WILL DROP OFF AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
and the cold front has weakened. Decoupling of the lower atmosphere Thu morning could allow for some fog to form from about Sac Swd.
A cold front will bring a wind shift to the north/northeast through the area tomorrow morning. A weak cold front will move south into the Big Country later tonight (after Midnight), reaching the KABI terminal between 11Z and 12Z Thursday. An upper low over eastern Kansas early this morning will lift rapidly north-northeast today, with height rises over our area and the flow aloft becoming west-northwest. A weak and dry cold front will move south into the Big Country late tonight.
EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT TO THE REGION/S EAST AT 16Z. COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT THEN THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WIND DIRECTIONS OUT OF THE N AND NE AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 301 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015 COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE TONIGHT.
140 PM PST WED NOV 18 2015 OFFSHORE WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.
Moderate and occasionally gusty southwest to west winds will dimish tonight then shift from the northeast near 12Z as a cold front moves through the area. This second wave will drag a weak cold front through the region late tonight.
THERE IS A CHANCE KDHT COULD SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW MORNING GIVEN CLEAR OVERNIGHT SKIES WITH LIGHT WIND AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM MELTING SNOW JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINAL. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. /ISSUED 417 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015/ UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.
349 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
1258 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015 AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY. BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
1019 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015 Clouds associated with moisture wrapping around departing upper low will continue to scatter out over the next few hours with skies eventually becoming mostly sunny. Low clouds currently over NE OK/NW AR TAF sites will begin to scatter out by mid morning as upper low continues to lift NNE of the region with VFR conditions developing. gusty SW/W winds will continue today before decreasing this evening ahead of cold front which will move into NE OK around 06Z. /ISSUED 257 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015/ An upper level low currently spinning over southeast Kansas will whisk off to the northeast today. An associated cold front will move through the region Tonight resulting in a cooler day on Thursday.
1112 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015 Short term (Today - Tomorrow night): Upper level low which has been the catalyst for showers and thunderstorms the past few day is evident on water vapor imagery over eastern Kansas. Skies will clear tonight however winds will remain elevated enough to keep overnight lows near normal in the low to mid 30s. High pressure will build into the area on Thursday keeping conditions tranquil with near normal temperatures with highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s. High pressure will remain over the area into Thursday night before shifting eastward after midnight.
MODELS DO HANG ON TO THE LOWER LEVEL SFC MOISTURE. TEMPS LOOK SEASONAL THOUGH AS THE AIRMASS IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN AND THE UPPER LEVELS INDICATE WEAK BROAD TROUGHING.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 322 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015 COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE TONIGHT.
WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. 6-8MB/3H PRESSURE RISES BEHIND COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING/NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOME MTN FLURRIES WILL LIKELY PREVAIL OVER THE HYR MTNS OF THE WEST FRIDAY IN WEAK UPGLIDE PATTERN AS RIDGE REBUILDS. TODAY'S WARNING VERIFIED AS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHWAY SOUTH OF CLARK AND PLENTY OF GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH.
SEEING FREEZING TEMPERATURES. NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO DROP DOWN FROM THE PLAINS AND HELP BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. 50 INCHES AND WITH DRY LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS. NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES EVENTUALLY HELP CARVE OUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U. WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN U.
EXPECT THE LAST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS DAWN APPROACHES WITH THE COLDEST AIR FINALLY REACHING THOSE LOCATIONS.
320 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016 AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY USHERING IN A COLD FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON.
MAIN ISSUE IS THE RAIN CHANCES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE BOUNDARY AND UPPER TROUGH. WILL NOT SEE A BIG TEMPERATURE DROP WITH THIS BOUNDARY (COOLER TEMPERATURES AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD). TENDING MORE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THAT THE COOLER AIR WILL TRAIL THE WIND SHIFT.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement that upper trough currently seen on water vapor over the upper Midwest will rotate eastward across the Great Lakes tonight. As it does it will cause its attendant cold front currently over the Dakotas and Minnesota to dive southeastward across Missouri and Illinois late tonight. Still do not expect any precipitation with the passage of this front as the low-mid level moisture is very limited. Temperatures tonight will easily fall back down to MOS temp guidance with clear skies and cold air advection behind the cold front.
SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNRISE. DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO CLIMB MUCH ABOVE THE LOW TO MID 40S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE MID-SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SUNNY AND COOL WEATHER EXPECTED. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT A STRONG AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CARVE ITSELF OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
REPLACED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AN UPPER TROF MOVES OVERHEAD. THOUGH THE ECMWF IS EVEN WARMER AT +4 AND +8C.
A SHARP UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO ARRIVE INTO N TX TONIGHT IS TRENDING SHARPER AND DEEPER AGAIN. STRONGER WINDS ARE NOW FORECAST IN THE FRONT FOLLOWING THE TROUGH SATURDAY.
As another cold front approaches, expect elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon. Otherwise, afternoon highs will be slightly warmer than yesterday, mainly around 60. Tonight, another cold front will sweep across West central Texas. This front will bring cooler air and gusty winds from the northwest.
WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EASES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST AND EXTEND OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO WILL BE UNDER THE NW FLOW IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A HUGE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP CONCURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.
1120 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016 ATTENTION IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS ON THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
423 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
Most locations have warmed into the 40s this afternoon with the exception of areas with snow cover, which is keeping temperatures in the 20s and highs may struggle to reach freezing. The warmer temperatures supported by deeper mixing have allowed stronger winds to mix down to the surface, but should speeds will decrease after sunset. Further east there is a lack of moisture in the low levels closer to the high pressure. A deepening wave coming out of western Canada brings another cold front Saturday night.
1143 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016 HAVE A FEW OBS REPORTING SOME LIGHT SNOW STILL WITH THE LOW CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH BEHIND THE LARGER AREA OF PRECIPITATION NOW ACROSS NE/EC IA. UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTHWEST.
1216 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
1112 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016 Short Term (Tonight - Saturday night): Lacking a snowstorm to grab one's attention will have to settle on watching an elongated upper trough heading our way.
221 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 KBYX DETECTS A SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
253 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 A CYCLONE MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NEW YORK EARLY TODAY.
RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY WITH SURFACE FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY.
MOST FORECAST MODELS GENERATE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE THAT WOULD AMOUNT TO TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW OR LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH. 5 STANDARD DEVIATION RIDGE OVER THE W AND A -2. 5 SD TROF OVER THE ERN USA. THE ASSOCIATED POLAR COLD FRONT WILL SURGE S AND CROSS THE FCST AREA SAT NIGHT. WITH A WARM FRONT SHARPENING AND APPROACHING. IT'S LOOKING VERY WARM IN THE LOW-LVLS. WE MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH WITH THE WARP-AROUND CLOUD COVER ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE THERMAL TROF.
358 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 A CYCLONE MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NEW YORK EARLY TODAY.
Meanwhile, upper level ridging is moving ashore off the Pacific into the Intermountain West. Near the surface, a large area of high pressure continues to dominate across the Western High Plains.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING IS KEEPING QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS JUST A TOUGH HIGHER THAN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS WHERE THE COLDER AIR HAS SETTLED.
RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTH AND WITH A SUBTLE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH. THE LOW STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE LOW 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ON FRIDAY TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN DIP INTO THE LOW 20S WITH A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT EXPECTED. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS BY WHILE CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE WEEKEND. OUR IMPACT WILL COME FROM A TROUGH DESCENDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND BECOMING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK.
A WARM FRONT RAN SOUTH FROM THE LOW INTO EASTERN IOWA WHILE A COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS MINNESOTA AND INTO THE DAKOTAS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S ALONG AND BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WITH SINGLE DIGITS OVER WISCONSIN.
THE TROUGH WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE INHIBITED BY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT WELL BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE LOWER 30S.
AM GOING A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AS WE SHOULD HAVE A FEW MORE CLOUDS. 00Z SATURDAY STARTS OUT WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND AS AN UPPER TROF KEEPS NW FLOW IN PLACE.
GUSTY NW WINDS, COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY OVERSPREAD MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE BOUNDARY JUST NOW CLEARING THE EAST COAST. BREEZY N-NW WINDS WILL ALSO USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS. COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 50S FOR GLADES/HENDRY, MID-UPPER 50S FOR THE REMAINDER OF INTERIOR AND WEST COAST, AND LOW 60S ALONG THE EAST COAST AS LOW LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO VEER NE.
Cold Snap Early Next High clouds are on the increase this morning from west to east as the next upper level wave is moving across the High Plains region.
THE LOWER LAYERS MOISTENING INDEPENDENTLY WILL BE AN AID IN GETTING ANY FLAKES TO THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING EAST TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE WEST.
OK AND TX CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT HAS NOW BEGUN TO SURGE DUE E TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS WAVE WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH AN EXTREMELY INTENSE UPPER CYCLONE THAT'LL MOVE SE ALONG THE SWRN SHORES OF HUDSON BAY. DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SE ACROSS KS. THIS WEEKEND: NICE WEATHER AWAITS THE NEIGHBORHOOD FOR AS THE INTENSE UPPER-DECK WAVE SURGES E ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON SAT RIDGING WILL PUNCH N/NE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL SITES FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
WITH MID 30S LIKELY FOR MOST SPOTS AS THE PACIFIC FRONT HELPS MIX DOWN WARMER AIR ALOFT.
The Big Country, Concho Valley, and Crockett county will have the strongest winds and the higher fire danger. Lows in the mid and upper 20s are expected south of Interstate 20, with slightly stronger winds and mixing keeping temperatures in the lower 30s along and north of I- 20.
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.
High temperatures should be a few degrees warmer Friday.
338 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DUAL CORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WHICH IS WORKING IN TANDEM WITH 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO PRODUCE QUITE THE GRADIENT LOCALLY. COLD ADVECTION PATTERN IN FULL FORCE WITH TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND FREEZING FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS AND DEWPOINTS MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH TEENS COMMON. POSITION OF THE HIGH BY TONIGHT POINTS TO A COLD NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. WENT ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH LOWER 20S FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE. UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OCCURS SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
1135 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE STARTING TO MOVE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LAKES ON SATURDAY WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
1138 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016 CURRENTLY WATCHING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED N/S BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING EAST THROUGH EASTERN MN. STILL LOOKING AT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/2 TO PERHAPS AN INCH ON THE HIGHER END. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLIDES OVERHEAD TONIGHT FOR CLEARING AND COLD CONDITIONS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GULF REGION BEGINS TO BUILD EWD INTO THE REGION. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AS WINDS FINALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH OWING TO A MUCH WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
249 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO NEW MEXICO. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LONG WAVE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
High pressure quickly rebounds, allowing for moderating afternoon temperatures. Weak lee troughing will promote gentle SW downslope, sending the southern 1/2 of the CWA into the mid to upper 50s.