Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The warm moist air advecting over the relatively cooler shelf waters will create favorable conditions for sea fog to develop over the northern and possibly central waters later today and tonight. Dewpoints in the lower 70s will make it feel close to 90 in spots, especially across SW FL where high max temps are forecast. Winds and seas will increase behind a cold front late in the week with marginal advisory levels possible.
The blocking high pressure ridge remains in the Gulf of Alaska while moist westerly flow increases just to the south of that high.
Steadier rain is forecast for Monday night and Tuesday with an approaching low pressure. Downsloping will contribute to better conditions immediately west of the ridges. The Cold advection behind the low's cold front should result in any remaining precip changing to snow showers Tuesday night.
An upper level low will slowly weaken through Monday. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s with lows in the teens to 20s.
Cold front will move over the CWA through the aftn with temps falling into the lower teens and single digits by the evening.
The true cold front is still up in South Dakota this morning and will not swing through the entire forecast area until after 00 Z this evening. That said, the leading edge of the cold air will be influencing the northern half, keeping locations like Hays and Wakeeney struggling through the 40s this afternoon while much warmer highs are seen along the OKlahoma line.
Even so, it will produce enough snow, freezing rain and sleet to make for slick roads and sidewalks late in the day and tonight for most of the forecast area. The Fox Valley and lakeshore counties should be just above freezing with easterly winds coming off Lake Michigan, but there could be a few hours of slushy roads tonight due to cold pavement and air temperatures that could drop to the freezing point after dark.
Areas of light drizzle along with scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible into the afternoon hours as an upper level low moves across Texas. model soundings indicate that some cloud cover could try to scatter out over parts of Eastern Oklahoma ahead of a cold front forecast to move into Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas toward the end of the TAF period. /Issued 355 AM CST Mon Jan 2 2017/ The main area of showers and thunderstorms associated with the northern Texas upper low is moving quickly east across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas and will move across mainly southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas this morning. The arctic cold front is still due to arrive late tonight and Tuesday morning.
Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 40s with light west winds and partly cloudy skies.
Northern Arizona remains under a strengthening west to southwest flow aloft in response to cold low pressure moving through the Pacific Northwest.
Cold front will move into northern Oklahoma by 06Z tonight and move over all terminals by end of forecast period. Models still similar with bringing initial cold front in overnight tonight. GFS appears to be having trouble with western extent of upper trough, with the ECM having better consistency on keeping strongly positively tilted trough intact.
1015 AM EST Mon Jan 2 2017 Widespread rain is expected through tonight as a warm front advances slowly north through the area.
544 AM EST Mon Jan 2 2017 A weak disturbance provides light precipitation this morning, with freezing rain possible in portions of northwest Pennsylvania. Steadier rain is forecast for Monday night and Tuesday with approaching low pressure. Have elected to drop the remainder of the freezing rain advisory, as the warm push continues to win out over the area. Thanks to the warm push, high temperatures will end up roughly 15 degrees warmer than normal. Cold advection behind the low's associated cold front should result in any precip changing to snow showers Tuesday night.
An upper trough over the Pacific Northwest will support snow shower development over the area today. As the trough extends offshore tonight into Tuesday focus of precip development will gradually shift into southeast Oregon early Tuesday. By Tuesday afternoon a steady snow will develop across far southeast Oregon as a warm front begins to lift toward the OR/NV border.
The band of strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of the upper trough of low pressure moving across the Southern Plains and into South Central Texas and into the Gulf of Mexico on the Upper Texas Coast has shifted into extreme East Texas and Deep East Texas and into South Arkansas and Northwest Louisiana, and have dropped 10 counties in Texas from tornado watch number 2.
543 AM CST Mon Jan 2 2017 The stratus shield has spread west with areas of fog, some dense with freezing drizzle. Will include a slight chance mention of light snow into the forecast for these areas, but will hold off on any measurable mention as saturation in the lower troposphere is less than ideal, with the best moisture being shallow. Otherwise cold temperatures will rule the forecast through the work week as the front remains well south of the area and Arctic high pressure builds into the region.
we have just dropped quickly to 1/4sm to 1/2sm in freezing fog. Increased surface moisture along this boundary is allowing for stratus/fog/freezing fog to develop. Models continue to push a cold front down south into the region later this afternoon. with the passage of a cold front thru the region. Do expect some lingering moisture on the tail end of the front over far eastern zones to allow for low clouds and possibly some freezing drizzle in spots for a few hours between 00z- 06z Tuesday. to the lower teens east and southeast.
Mostly Sunny and warm conditions again today with temperatures reaching the lower 80s inland. Scattered showers with a few thunderstorms may reach interior se Ga by late afternoon as an upper trough now over Texas lifts ne into the lower Ms river valley by this evening. Showers with embedded thunderstorms will increase over the area tonight as trough pushes east across the se states.
Despite lower through mid level ridging nearby and an inhibiting layer loosely around 850 mb, there is enough moisture to support isolated to scattered weak showers or sprinkles across the area. Forecast - Over the next couple of days winds will gradually clock more southerly and weaken as the ridge to our north retreats out into the Atlantic and a trough moves into the eastern United States.
1008 AM EST Mon Jan 2 2017 A low pressure system approaching from the southwest will bring widespread showers to the area tonight. Weak disturbances following the low will allow shower chances to continue Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Inverted trough remains situated across Middle Tennessee, with isolated showers showing up on radar and IFR conditions still plaguing the mid state. But look for more widespread showers to develop later this afternoon with storms moving through during the evening out ahead of a strong cold front that's expected to pass through later tonight.
A cold upper level trough extending from the eastern Pacific through the northern Rockies will maintain periods of snow across northern Utah today.
551 AM CST Mon Jan 2 2017 Ahead of a cold front, a southwest flow aloft continues today with weak isentropic lift continuing in the 275-280K layer which is where the moisture is. Currently, a short wave is causing most of the organized light precipitation mainly in the form of freezing drizzle to fall in our eastern zones, east of I 29. This means that the freezing drizzle threat will probably be most acute this morning, with possible lingering trace amounts this afternoon. One exception is in our southern zones, for instance around Sioux City and vicinity, where temperatures will likely warm comfortably above freezing this afternoon. The cold front will then move eastward across the forecast area tonight.
More snow for the Continental Divide this afternoon through Upper low over the Pacific Northwest will retrograde westward slightly over the next 24 hours. west winds will be windy again across the mountains and adjacent plains through this evening with gusts to around 40-50 kts at times across the higher peaks and east facing slopes. This will result in areas of blowing snow for the higher elevations. Tonight a cold front will drop through the plains behind the northern stream system which moves through WY and northern CO this afternoon. Low temperatures tonight should be a tad cooler behind the front.
632 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 High pressure will remain in control this weekend.
127 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will drift southeast through Sunday.
As a cold front moves in from the north, winds will become northeasterly and breezy in our Alabama and Georgia counties.
Expect the best coverage to be after 00z as the low-level jet increases to 30 to 40 kts over the plains. Saturday will be the warmest day of the period, due to strong subsidence under the upper ridge and H7 temperatures averaging around +16C. MET continues to be the warmer guidance suggesting around 100 F over the Panhandle and possibly east central Wyo in the Platte River valley.
157 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 High pressure will provide a fair weather pattern through the weekend.
Ridging will build in aloft and at the surface this weekend.
A cold front will be situated across the CWA Saturday morning and sink south of the area by Saturday night. Have kept the highest PoPs (40-50%) for Saturday across the southern part of the CWA with 20-30% across the north. By Sunday, high pressure builds into the CWA from the mid-Atlantic, bringing drier air into the CWA, with convection mainly limited to the marine area.
331 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 High pressure will remain in control this weekend.
Yesterday morning there were still storms on the radar at this hour as a cold front moved across the area. A much different scenario this morning with drier air moving behind the cold front. Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicate an amplified pattern across the CONUS with a ridge over the Central U. and trough on both the Pacific and Atlantic coasts. At the surface, the cold front to the south and high pressure centered over the Mid- Atlantic will lead to northeasterly to easterly flow across the region. Therefore, much cooler temperatures are expected overnight with clear skies, light winds and dry air in place. Expect most locations will drop down into the low 50s to low 60s.
The Great Basin will continue to be sandwiched between a low pressure system over the Pacific northwest and strengthening high pressure near the 4-corners area of the country. IR satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper level low circulation off the Pacific Northwest coast this morning. High pressure to the southeast has some clouds demarcating the ridge crest that is now pushing into southern Nevada. Low pressure will meander off the Oregon and Washington shoreline while high pressure expands over the 4-corners area of the country, keeping the pressure gradient over the Great Basin modestly tight, leading to some breezy winds off and on.
Cold front along the Cascades early this morning will move to the western Idaho border around noon MDT and to the Magic Valley between 3 and 6 PM MDT. This timing will allow our eastern-most zones, including the Magic Valley, to bercome quite warm again today before the front arrives, but cooler Max temps will be felt today especially on the Oregon side.
142 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 High pressure will build in for the weekend, bringing in dry conditions and less humid air.
Issued by National Weather Service Columbia SC 530 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 High pressure will build into the region from the north this weekend, resulting in unseasonably cool and dry conditions.
623 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 High pressure drifts offshore today while increasingly warmer air moves in from the west this weekend.
304 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 Strengthening of the mid level ridge extending from the swrn US into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes this weekend will ensure hot and dry conditions across the forecast area. This will result in an increasing sw gradient across Lower Mi and slight warming of low to mid level temps across the area, supportive of max temps in the low 90s Sunday.
155 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 A large high pressure system, will build over the region through the weekend. Some very patchy fog is still possible but afternoon dew points were only in the lower 40s, and overnight mins will be mainly in the 50s. The normally cooler deep valleys may approach the 40s and it will be here patchy fog can't be ruled out. Saturday looks great, just a few degrees warmer than today with full sunshine. Enjoy! Upper level ridge will sprawl across NY and PA and much of the northeast U.
Aloft the upper low pressure trough was over the eastern U. S while upper ridging over the western U.
348 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 Ridging at the surface to our north and northeast, and aloft to our west and northwest, will be our dominant features during the period. Meanwhile, the upper ridge will bring benign conditions with warm air aloft, resulting in surface convective currents being capped.
352 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 Cool and dry high pressure will extend down the East Coast through the weekend. A pronounced ridge axis and associated height rises aloft will build --from a sub-tropical ridge centered over NRN Mexico and the Desert SW-- across the ERN U. Those conditions, and climatology for forecast low level thickness values around 1375 m, favor low temperatures in the lower to middle 50s, except upper 50s in the Coastal Plain and ERN Sandhills. Low pressure will remain off the Carolina coast, as high pressure extends across the area.
Weak high pressure continues to build over western and central ND. 20 UTC surface analysis shows cold front has pushed into far southeast North Dakota. On saturday the front that moved through today lifts back north as a warm front with warm southeast flow returning to the region. The EC and moreso the GFS keep the warm front lifting through ND on Saturday farther south and thus keep the northern tier counties at risk for thunderstorms late Saturday night into Sunday morning. A cold front moves through the area by Sunday morning.
322 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016 A break from the oppressive conditions of the last few days will be enjoyed across the forecast area this weekend with temperatures forecast to run several degrees cooler along with more in the way of cloud cover and convection. The upper ridge that has dominated the region as of late has shifted westward while an upper trough currently positioned along the east coast has pushed a weak cold front deep into the south. This cold front will move into the forecast area today and sag south across the area over the weekend before becoming diffuse. An inverted mid/upper trough will move across the central Gulf Coast and lower Mississippi valley region today into Sunday.
406 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016 (Today and Tonight) Upper level ridge centered just west of El Paso early this morning will shift north and extend from Colorado southwest into Arizona by later this evening.
An upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern across the Central Plains. Under the influence of the ridge and warm airmass in place, temperatures will again be hot this afternoon with highs averaging in the 90s. An upper level ridge will be the main feature through the period. There are a few mainly weak waves that move over the ridge and bring some small chances for thunderstorms. Sunday will continue to be a warm day as the ridge is across the area and there will be south winds. Sunday evening is the first of the weak upper level waves that move into the area with a cold front that moves through the forecast area during the night. The upper wave is further north and the south has warmer temperatures in the mid levels.
High pressure responsible for such will remain in control through the overnight, with just a few passing thin cirrus (debris from earlier southern Canada thunderstorms). Strong high pressure and dry air remain firmly in control of the weather across the Great Lakes region this afternoon. Otherwise, high pressure will remain built into Lower Michigan through the day and night. After 06z, the cold front will move into the Upper Great Lakes.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): 500 mb high pressure centered over the Four Corners area of the United States and extended over the BRO CWFA will produce a continuation of dry weather within Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley today and early tonight. However, relief will arrive in the form of an inverted 500 mb trough that will move down the Texas coastline and into northern Mexico late tonight through Sunday.
Upper level ridge axis folds over into the Central Great Lakes Tonight, and is re-enforced on Sunday as 500 mb Heights reach and slightly exceeds 592 DAM.
Issued by National Weather Service Columbia SC 657 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 High pressure will build into the region from the north this weekend, resulting in unseasonably cool and dry conditions.
118 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 High pressure will continue to bring quiet weather to the area through the weekend.
439 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 High pressure will bring clear skies and warm weather to the area through the weekend.
Issued by National Weather Service Columbia SC 128 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 In the wake of a cold frontal passage, abnormally dry and cool high pressure will build in over the weekend.
Upper level ridge will rapidly build across the area today with 500 mb heights rising by nearly 60 meters through the day. The ridge will fold over Sunday with cooler air spilling into northern portions of the forecast area. Highs will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler Sunday across northern portions of the forecast area, but near the Colorado border temperatures will again reach to within a few degrees of record readings.
Southwesterly flow continues to dominate the upper levels, as an upper level low progresses over the northwest US. This will bring with it cooler and drier air. Due to rising heights and an abundance of sunshine, high temperatures will reach into the 90s across much of the lower elevations ahead of the aforementioned front. Dry conditions move in during the early part of the week as a strong ridge builds over the desert southwest.
449 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 High pressure will bring clear skies and warm weather to the area through the weekend.
TODAY: COLD FRONT WILL BRING STORMS AND WINDY CONDITIONS. Very light rain showers are spreading from the southwest to the northeast over the Northern Rockies in warm air ascent ahead of the approaching cold front today. However, showers, thunderstorms, and windy conditions will rapidly develop by mid-day today as the cold front strengthens and accelerates eastward into the area. A tightening pressure gradient from this front, and strong winds from aloft mixing down to the surface, will allow windy conditions to reach 40+ mph in the valleys 50+ mph over ridgetops at times.
Ratzer 235 PM CDT A quiet night ahead with high pressure drifting overhead. High pressure over the lakes region Saturday will move to the mid Atlantic region Sunday. Light winds Saturday will allow for a more traditional lake breeze to move inland during the afternoon keeping the lake shore areas cooler. dewpoints will be increasing into the lower/mid 60s. This will keep low temps generally in the upper 60s with urban areas possibly only dropping into the lower/mid 70s.
This will bring a low pressure system and cold front across Northeast Montana. Expect some severe weather across the north mainly this evening but could linger into the overnight hours as atmosphere remains unstable until the cold front exits the state around 12z Sunday. Drier and cooler air mass moves into Northeast Montana on Sunday as the flow aloft turns to the northwest.
250 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016 Ridge of high pressure a loft continues to build across the region this weekend. the thermal ridge is slated to run from the MN arrowhead southwest. Dew points currently progged to hold in the low to mid 60s. While the high pressure ridge is expected to keep any shower/storm activity at bay. models remain in good agreement with sliding an upper level trough across the top of the ridge Sunday night, flattening it out. At the sfc, an associated cold front will move into western WI overnight, gradually laying up from west to east across IA/northern IL while the mean trough departs east.
Issued by National Weather Service Columbia SC 410 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 High pressure will build into the region from the north this weekend, resulting in unseasonably cool and dry conditions.
A back door cold front will push into east Alabama Saturday morning, and this front will be the focus for afternoon scattered showers and few thunderstorms, so best rain chances will be confined to southwest counties. By Sunday, even drier air will spill down the Appalachians as a closed upper low develops off the Carolina coast.
Meanwhile a low pressure system near the coast of Or/Wa was spinning disturbances into the two state area and the clouds and showers should persist overnight.
(Issued 922 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016) The cold front that sparked convection across the southern counties earlier today now sits just south of the TN River, with dewpoints ranging from the lower 60s north of this front to the lower 70s south of the front. Winds will shift to north overnight, with the passage of a cold front, and then become southerly again on Saturday.
355 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016 Surface analysis early this morning shows a cold front stretched across the northern part of Alabama.
229 AM MDT SAT JUN 18 2016 A warm, dry weekend is in store as a large area of high pressure moves in from the south. As far as our weather is concerned, generally clear skies, maybe a few cumulus clouds over the higher terrain, and continued warm temperatures. By Sunday, the center of the high pressure will be over southern Colorado with little change to our sensible weather.
Northerly mid level flow above the PAH forecast area is progged to slacken this weekend as a ridge gradually builds across the eastern half of the CONUS. An inverted trof-looking feature in the low levels may induce a subtle increase in cloudiness for us from time to time over the weekend, but measurable pcpn is highly unlikely. Large expansive ridge will retrograde west as heights eventually fall due to a developing trof that will set up over the east U.
319 AM MDT SAT JUN 18 2016 Patch of stratus has developed over Pueblo County this morning, and will likely to continue expanding over the lower Arkansas Valley early this morning. and 597 decameter ridge will continue to expand Nwd through NM today. Will be another mild night as the ridge continues to build leading to a scorcher day on Sunday. 600 decameter 500mb ridge over the state, with temperatures of +15C to +22C at 700mb makes for a hot and dry day across the CWA.
324 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 High pressure drifts offshore today while increasingly warmer air moves in from the west this weekend.
345 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 Cool and dry high pressure will extend down the East Coast through the weekend. A pronounced ridge axis and associated height rises aloft will build --from a sub-tropical ridge centered over NRN Mexico and the Desert SW-- across the ERN U. Those conditions, and climatology for forecast low level thickness values around 1375 m, favor low temperatures in the lower to middle 50s, except upper 50s in the Coastal Plain and ERN Sandhills. Cool high pressure will build/extend into the area this weekend, while low pressure remains well off the Carolina coast. This will result in a cool, but dry northeasterly flow with temps expected to be in the lower 80s for highs and lows in the mid to upper 50s, with a few usual rural cold spots dipping into the lower 50s.
The upper low offshore that has been swinging wave after waver of showers through the region will continue to move north to Northwest Washington state this afternoon. A thermal trough will deepen along the coast this evening with offshore flow spreading across the east side tonight.