Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Strong high pressure aloft will return to the region over the weekend.
This drier air mixing in will keep showers and thunderstorms more isolated locally, with the highest chances in southeast AL.
Model soundings indicate that Friday will be breezy as well, but a bit less than today with winds beginning to weaken aloft and a bit more moisture in the lower levels. Additionally, isolated to scattered showers will develop tonight in the northern valley and Friday in parts of northwest Minnesota as the main trough axis swings through and the upper low moves from eastern Manitoba toward the Minnesota Arrowhead. With northwest flow, increasing cloud cover into Friday, and positioning upstream of the trough, expect cooler conditions Friday with highs generally remaining in the 60s.
A cold front is forecast to push south into the region starting around 12z Friday morning with MVFR conditions and precip chances with the front. Broken/overcast cloud cover over Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas today should help to keep temps slightly cooler this afternoon with highs in the mid/upper 80s forecast.
1128 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017 Thunderstorm coverage and strength the question for today, as fairly strong cold front drops south through the area this afternoon and evening. Front then races southward through the plains this evening, with deepening upslope and cooler air spreading westward across the plains and into the eastern mountains by sunset. Unsettled and cooler conditions are anticipated over the forecast district from Friday into at least the weekend in the wake of a healthy north to northeasterly surface surge which is expected to move into northeastern New Mexico by sunrise Friday. Increased pops and even some fog at times in combination with cooler conditions(especially when compared to the previous few very warm days) should be noted over the majority of the forecast district(especially eastern sections) from Friday into the weekend as upper disturbances interact with adequate atmospheric moisture.
A few storms may be severe due to mainly strong instability, and a cold front entering areas north of the I-20 corridor. 21 (Friday Night through next Thursday) West Central Texas will have increased rain chances Friday night through the weekend, along with cooler temperatures. An upper level high will be centered over the Desert Southwest and adjacent parts of northern Mexico this weekend, with a ridge extending northwest into Oregon. Our area will be on the eastern periphery of this high, with north-northwest flow aloft. The models have also trended faster with the effective cold front, which is progged to push south across our northern counties Friday evening, and then across the rest of our area during the night. With increased cloud cover, daily high temperatures will be cooler this weekend.
High pressure will continue to build into the area through Friday with some drier air moving in and suppressing rain chances, 30-40 percent for early tonight and 20-30 percent on Friday. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 70s inland and mid to upper 70s coastal. Highs Friday will generally be in the lower 90s, with some upper 80s at the beaches.
High pressure building in from the Atlantic will keep lighter generally SE flow prevailing with an afternoon sea breeze for the next few days.
A cold front is trudging slowly southward into the region. The frontal boundary does get hung up across west central portions of Kansas/eastern Colorado overnight and on thru Friday due to strong ridging from the north and a stagnant low over eastern NM/western TX. looking for highs to be cooler west in the lower 70s. Northwest flow to start the period will gradually weaken as the western ridge crosses the Rockies. The ridge will weaken by the end of the period with a zonal flow across the CONUS. However, with the ridge building over the area forcing for convection will be a problem.
Some Severe Storms Later Today Then Much Cooler Tomorrow. At 230 pm, boundary/cold front extended wnw-ese across the northern part of the CWA. It is possible that additional strong convection could redevelop late this afternoon or evening over the lower elevations of the Pikes Peak region as shear and CAPE should increase as flow becomes upslope behind the boundary. Cold front will move south down the plains this evening. Some thunder will be possible tomorrow, but it will be relegated to the higher elevations of the southern Sangre De Cristo mtns.
A cold front is trudging slowly southward into the region. The frontal boundary does get hung up across west central portions of Kansas/eastern Colorado overnight and on thru Friday due to strong ridging from the north and a stagnant low over eastern NM/western TX. looking for highs to be cooler west in the lower 70s.
Temperatures ranged from the upper 70s along the Highway 20 corridor to the mid 80s in southeast Iowa and northeast Missouri. Models depict a cold front sliding southeastward across the region from basically 06 utc to about 09 UTC Friday. This is expected to be a progressive system with the front moving through and high pressure building into the region for the end of the work week.
Models continue to show activity becoming more scattered this afternoon, and more isolated overnight between the 2 upper lows.
By Friday evening, the trough axis will be lagging behind and low level winds will not be that bad, so the potential for strong storms and maybe some severe seemed ok for the northeastern portions of the rain.
Tonight a mid level shear axis and associated cold front drops through the fa.
a cold front will move south across the area today with many locations seeing high temperatures earlier than normal with slowly falling temperatures for the rest of the day behind the front. Low temperatures should fall into the low to mid 50s west, low 60s far east. 850mb temperatures drop about 19F to 29F across the area supporting highs in the low 70s to near 80. Low temperatures in the low to mid 50s.
Tropical Storm Cindy will continue to weaken over E TX while the upper ridge remains in tact over the Desert SW. Expect another very hot day for much of the area Friday ahead of a cold front. This front may reach northern portions of the Permian Basin before peak heating so will keep these locations slightly cooler than everyone else.
254 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 Considerable moisture continues to stream into the area in the southerly flow between high pressure off the Southeast Coast and the remnants of Cindy to the west.
A low pressure trough will push through NE Montana this evening producing strong NW winds with gusts well into the 40 to 60 mph range. The main upper low over central Canada is forecast to send another weather disturbance and trough across southern Saskatchewan Friday with NW winds increasing again and becoming strong 15 to 30 mph with gusts from 35 to 50 mph by Friday afternoon. With the upper trof over south central Canada, expect high temperatures to remain well below average for the next several days.
Large upper ridge centered over AZ continues to keep much above normal temperatures across our area. Instability each afternoon and evening near and along the crest of the Southern Sierra Nevada will provide for a slight chance of thunderstorms each afternoon and evening through the weekend and this will be a concern for those who are hiking or camping in the Southern Sierra Nevada while escaping the heat over the lower elevations.
Strengthening high pressure and northerly surface flow has weakened the Delta Breeze and is resulting in warmer temperatures through much of the Sacramento Valley. The high heat, low relative humidity and increased winds will continue high fire danger for a number of areas. Hot weather continues across the northern half of the Sacramento Valley and in the mountains late this week while cooler weather gradually returns to the Delta and southern Sacramento Valley as the Delta Breeze returns.
Meanwhile, the outer fringes of decaying tropical cyclone Cindy began pushing into east central/southeast Kansas in the form of a stratocu cloud deck. Also at the surface, a weak surface cyclone was located near the central KS/central NE border with a cold frontal boundary arching NE and a dryline extending to the SSW. This front will slide SE in response to an amplifying upper level trough digging SE across the Northern Plains. Much cooler air pushes southward for Friday behind the front with H850 temps falling to +13 C and surface temps likewise falling to the upper 70s to around 80.
Ceilings will recover a bit and winds will calm slightly after storms pass before a cold front pushes through and causes winds to ramp up with gusts up to 40kts and ceilings to drop to possibly MVFR or lower. Upper high over the southwestern states will allow for an active northwesterly flow pattern across the Panhandles today through the weekend. Convection will likely develop over the higher terrain and mountains of Colorado and New Mexico by 21Z today which will propagate into the western Oklahoma and northwest Texas Panhandles between 21Z today and 00Z Friday.
Analysis of downdraft CAPE (an indicator of energy available for downdrafts) shows the most likely area for this will be over the Tavaputs/Bookcliffs/Grand Mesa area with the threat moving southward toward Moab, The ridge over the SW U. The passing trough will increase the pressure gradient and resulting winds aloft and at the surface. A modicum of moisture will accompany the trough which should result in isolated high-based and dry thunderstorms over mainly the northern half of the area. The dry NW flow aloft will continue through the weekend as the ridge reestablishes over the Great Basin.
A cold front will move south across the area late tonight and through the day on Friday. The front will also bring noticeably cooler air into the northern/central part of the area. This front makes a good push to our south by late June standards taking the edge off of the high temperatures for a few days. We remain under northwesterly flow aloft and continue with some chances of precipitation with both the moisture return from the south and the possibility of convection moving off the High Plains toward the area.
The high heat, low relative humidity and increased winds will continue high fire danger as the Red Flag Warning continues. Hot weather continues across the northern half of the Sacramento Valley and in the mountains late this week while cooler weather gradually returns to the Delta and southern Sacramento Valley as the Delta Breeze returns.
252 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017 A cold front will continue to move southeastward into northwest Iowa this afternoon and evening bringing more stable conditions behind it. As the main low moves out of the area tonight, northwesterly winds will become more dominant, keeping the area mostly dry, but cooler and breezier than previous days. An upper-level trough will be moving southward into the Great Lakes, increasing cloud coverage over the region in the overnight hours through Friday afternoon. Overall, it will be breezy, with low humidity, and cooler temperatures.
For now will remove mention of thunder after midnight for the high terrain and after 3am over the plains, with stratus spreading across the plains and into the foothills up to about 10kft. Further west of the divide, temperatures will still be cooler than today, but some instability may allow for isolated weak afternoon thunderstorms.
An approaching cold front will interact with this system, allowing for a period of heavy rainfall that will move in to eastern Kentucky later Friday afternoon into Friday night. The models have generally shifted the higher QPF amounts more to the north with time, although given the high moisture content of the air mass, any location would have the potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding.
tropical cyclone Cindy will weaken and transition into the mid-latitude flow this period. The highest threat for damaging winds and tornadoes will continue along and south of the center tomorrow. while the highest flash flood threat shifts to along and north of the highway. Rainfall amounts of 5+ inches are possible in this zone as the tropical moisture interacts with a descending Midwest cold front.
A weak trough aloft, most readily seen as a diffuse gradient in 700mb temperatures, remains to the north along the CO/UT border today. Overnight temperatures are expected to be notably cooler than in past nights throughout much of eastern Utah and western Colorado as the 700mb thermal gradient passes through. Wind flow will generally be northwesterly behind the departing trough, with only a few afternoon cumulus clouds expected in the higher terrain along the Continental Divide. The weekend forecast remains on track with dry west to northwesterly flow in place and temperatures about 5 degrees above normal as the southwestern ridge strengthens.
HIs will get well into the lower to mid 100s by early afternoon nearly areawide and could approach or briefly exceed advisory conditions for some spots in the afternoon.
However, there is relief from heat and humidity in sight as the trough moving east across Canada will shove the frontal boundary to our north south later tonight and through Friday. this will bring some cooler air to the region, which will persist through the weekend, along with a chance for thunderstorms late tonight into the early Friday morning hours. This leaves areas of north central into northeast Missouri with the best chance for storms late tonight as the nocturnal jet, sinking cold front, and eastward moving Canadian trough interact.
236 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 Remnants of Cindy and a cold front to provide rounds of heavy rain through Friday night.
High pressure will continue to amplify over the west as the upper level trough digs down the central and eastern CONUS. A cold front will work its way south tonight across the Panhandles, bringing a relief in temperatures over the next few days.
The Chetco Effect is in full swing with the high so far in Brookings reaching 95.
The subtropical ridge is building west across the Florida Peninsula, and yet the northern reaches of the TUTT appear to be depressing heights in the upper troposphere.
with 19z/2pm temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the lower 70s. Meanwhile further northwest, a cold front extending from Lake Superior southwestward to Nebraska will begin to drop into the area late tonight. Cold front will sink southward through central Illinois on Friday, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. to the lower 80s further northwest where sunshine will return during the afternoon. Cold front will sink southward into the Ohio River Valley Friday night, allowing a much cooler/drier airmass to settle into the region over the weekend.
The highest concentration of convection will mainly be found near the center of circulation as it tracks from deep East Texas across North Louisiana and eventually into South Arkansas. Winds will be varying throughout the period due to the track of the remnant low pressure center so prevailing wind direction will not come until late in the period when S/SW winds are expected behind the departing T. Cindy and ahead of an approaching cold front moving south toward the region. Center of the low is now approaching the Toledo Bend reservoir.
Currently another cold front had entered northern North Dakota with a reinforcement of cold advection behind it. The high wind warning winds in the far north are thought to be more isolated in nature. However, should the higher 3-hour pressure rises forecast for this evening become realized at the surface over a wider area, we may need to consider issuing a high wind warning. Still, went on the high side of guidance for winds giving us 20 to 30 mph sustained winds Friday with gusts to 35 mph at times.
There is a fair amount of dry air in the low levels, but appears that quick saturation could lead to some light precipitation.
Based on web cams and visibilities, a quick shot of accumulations of a quarter inch to locally one half inch will occur with this as far south as the highway 34 corridor. Area radar imagery has shown an overall weakening trend over the past couple hours with abundant dry air at the low levels delaying the onset of light snow at the surface delayed behind higher reflectivity. 18Z surface data has high pressure from Minnesota to the Gulf coast with a warm front in the Plains. However, what forcing that is present should be enough to generate a rain/snow mix or possibly all snow along and north of the highway 30 corridor.
Meanwhile, some warmer air aloft does advect into the western CWA late tonight, spelling a potential mix of pcpn types late and into Saturday morning, especially along and west of the Missouri valley. The general pattern over the next several days features an upper trough over Hudson Bay, with generally northwest flow and a series of waves moving across the region. Additionally, there will be a 1040mb high moving out of Montana with a ridge axis extending into the Dakotas.
1105 PM EST Fri Feb 2 2018 High pressure will build into the state overnight and Saturday. Developing low pressure over the plains this weekend will push through Pennsylvania on Sunday.
In the upper levels a broad trough is over the Central and Eastern U. Cloud cover will begin to increase late this afternoon as the next low pressure system begins to develop over the Gulf near TX/LA.
Precipitation will quickly become all rain as a 45 kt LLJ transports warmer temperatures into the boundary layer. Rain will end from west to east during the day on Sunday as the upper trough swings by.
Cloud cover will offset southerly winds and warm air advection this afternoon to keep temperatures down in the lower to mid 60s for most spots. Patchy fog will develop over most of the region late in the overnight hours as winds become light and variable as a weak pre-frontal trough passes through. This should help keep low temperatures up in the mid 40s to lower 50s, similar to or a few degrees warmer than most spots have been tonight.
A round of light snow for all of western and central North Dakota, with a threat of a mix of light snow and freezing rain in the southwest, highlights the short term forecast. Currently, a large upper level Hudson Bay Low was established, with an upper level ridge over the eastern Pacific. Meanwhile at the surface, low pressure along the eastern Rockies and Front Range was established, with arctic high pressure over the Canadian Prairies and a mild Pacific airmass over the southwestern US. Meanwhile frontogenetic forcing looks strongest along the arctic cold front moving south out of Canada - strongest across northern and central ND tonight.
High pressure ridging at the surface extending southwestward from the Ohio River Valley is responsible for light north to northeast flow over the region. Cool high pressure will gradually build east of the region over the next 24 hours.
Despite the low surface dew points, temperatures should be nearly steady tonight due to the increased cloud cover and southerly surface winds. Much warmer highs are forecast on Saturday with continued southerly winds.
This southerly flow and WAA will help temperatures climb into the lower 50s this afternoon with breezy conditions with gusts near 30mph possible in the afternoon. The lower pressure over the northern plains will move east with an associated cold front pushing into our area Saturday night into Sunday morning. Strong surface ridging and colder air will build into the region Sunday with low to mid level frontogenesis initiating possible snow showers Sunday mid morning into the afternoon over the western CWA.
948 PM MST Fri Feb 2 2018 Main focus will be on winds in the wind prone areas as well as the expected heavy snowfall over the higher mtns through Saturday.
The low levels will be quite dry, however decent isentropic lift in the 295-300K layer acting on a strong mid-level baroclinic zone could allow a narrow band of snow to reach the surface.
1130 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2018 Flying conditions should gradually deteriorate toward morning and through the day tomorrow as a warm front starts lifting north and upper level disturbances move in from the southwest. As a nearshore warm front moves onshore tomorrow.
Despite the clouds, temps will warm up into the low 40s to low 50s. With such dry air in the low levels, it will take a lot for precipitation to develop. There is still a low probability of some light freezing rain at times as temps drop, but no ice accumulation is expected as well.
Snow will develop Saturday night and continue into Sunday as low pressure moves through. Dry/clear/cold otherwise into this evening as low level ridging folds through. Warm advection regime sets up later tonight into Saturday as low level trajectories back/increase southwesterly in advance of an approaching frontal system/upper trough. Enough southeast ridging in place to allow some decent moisture return, with models hinting at 925-800 mb layer mixing rations exceeding 3 g/kg by Sunday.
High pressure will be directly over the area at the start of the period, which will slowly slide eastward during the course of the day. Even though we will be seeing some warm air advection aloft later in the day, the lower levels will remain fairly cold and high temperatures will only be in the 30s.
/issued 900 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2018/ Wx map shows high pressure continuing to build southward, with the pressure gradient beginning to relax inland. Northeast winds will continue to diminish this evening, become more easterly by daybreak, and southeasterly as the high shifts east and low pressure moves through the Central Plains. The majority of the precipitation should come to an end by mid-morning on Sunday as subsidence develops with the trough axis shifting further to the east of the region.
1109 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2018 High pressure now over the Ozarks will shift to the east tonight. A cold front will move through the area Saturday night and bring the potential for some light rain or a mix of rain and snow to areas of the eastern Ozarks.
/Tonight through Saturday/ Strong push of warmer air leading to a narrow band of snow across central Iowa this afternoon. The warm advection will persist overnight as thermal ridging in the Plains builds toward the state toward morning with the ridge sliding southeast over Iowa on Saturday. Earlier model scenarios had the cold front arriving by midday Saturday but newest guidance suggest a slower arrival and therefore a longer time in the warmer airmass. Overall, this means Saturday will be warmer than previously thought and have pushed temperatures higher, especially in the north.
Regional radar mosaics showing some scattered showers across Central and Southeast Texas and this is in association with a weak disturbance that will preceed the main upper level trough expected to affect our region tonight.
1224 AM EST Sat Feb 3 2018 Warmer and dry today. South- southwest winds in the lower levels will promote warm air advection throughout the day, allowing for a moderation in temperatures. with SLRs around 10 or lower given forecast upper air profiles and daytime max temperatures forecast to be above freezing. Any rain/mix will rapidly change back to snow late Sunday afternoon and evening as strong cold air advection will ensue with the passage of cold front.
304 AM CST Sat Feb 3 2018 South winds have returned and have aided, along with some cloud cover, to keep temperatures a bit warmer to start the day today. This will result in a warmer day across the area with afternoon highs in the 50s and 60s. This will push a cold front south through the area.
315 AM CST Sat Feb 3 2018 A cold front associated with a low pressure system will swing through the region Saturday, entering northeast Nebraska in the early afternoon, and exiting the CWA this evening. Warmer temperatures are expected in the southwesterly flow ahead of the front, especially in southeast Nebraska where highs in the low 50s will be possible.
915 PM PST Fri Feb 2 2018 An upper level ridge of high pressure will control the weather across Southern California through the coming week.