Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Storms developing along a boundary just across the border from Mobridge this evening. Cooler air will move in behind the front tonight. Low pressure will again move through the state on Saturday, potentially generating some showers and thunderstorms across eastern SD during the afternoon and evening. High pressure behind the cold front on Sunday morning should keep skies clear and conditions dry (humidity will be down as well). However, lee-of-the-Rockies low pressure is expected to develop and track east-northeast towards the Northern Plains by Sunday evening.
This shift in the lower tropospheric easterly flow is also evident on the KBYX VAD wind profile (VWP), as well as the CIMSS layer mean wind analysis (700-850mb).
No big changes to the forecast are in the works, other than guidance pushing temperatures a touch warmer today and Sunday afternoon.
318 AM PDT Sat Jul 18 2020 High pressure over Arizona will bring dry and warmer weather this weekend.
526 AM MDT Sat Jul 18 2020 Current surface map shows MCS outflow boundary backing into western South Dakota, with cold front across western North Dakota into northern Wyoming. Cold front continues to move through forecast area this morning. 3-4mb/3hr pressure rises behind the cold front will result in a period of gusty northwest winds.
A broad upper level ridge of high pressure persists across the southern half of the United States.
* None Conditions today again dictated by a gradually increasing upper height field, but with attendant surface ridging now displaced just to the east. Outside of t-storm potential, looking at another hot and humid day with dewpoints parked in the lower 70s. A slightly cooler and less humid mid summer air mass takes hold for the early week period, as the higher upper heights shift to the south. With that said, daytime highs will continue to reside on the warmer side of average - mid to upper 80s.
This will allow a flattened ridge pattern to rebound a little bit over the region.
Sunday will be slightly warmer with light winds and an increase in clouds in the north where a moderate chance of precipitation can be expected along the Hi-Line, Sunday night. A broad area of weak upper level ridging dominates the region, favoring mostly fair weather this weekend. With the ridge located just upstream, an upper level northwesterly flow causes Saturday's highs to dip a bit below average, while a moderately tight height gradient supports some breezy winds on Saturday. As this gradient relaxes, light winds are expected on Sunday with slightly warmer temperatures.
/issued 219 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020/ After a 10-day stretch with high temperatures at or above 100 deg F at Lubbock, it is very possible that the streak is snapped today as the high is forecast to reach 98 deg F with 850 mb temperatures near 29 deg C. Temperatures set for a bit of decrease beginning Sunday as the upper ridge that extends from the desert Southwest to the southeastern US develops a weakness over the southern High Plains courtesy of low-amplitude cyclonic flow across the central and northern Plains and a slow westward-moving TUTT over deep south Texas and northeastern Mexico.
Temperatures will be cooler Sunday behind this evening's cold front.
/issued 330 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): KBRO radar indicates isold conv firing south of the Rio Grande associate with the inverted 500 mb trough axis that has moved inland over the RGV/Deep South TX. This inverted trough will continue pushing west underneath the broad ridge axis in place over the southern U. This trough axis will combine with the daytime heating today to give the region a persistent potential for conv today. This general weakness in the ridging will allow for a little lower high temps today. As the inverted troffing drifts westward into Sun, the overall moisture levels across the region will decrease somewhat which may limit the conv potential on Sun.
Meanwhile, the overall weather pattern changes little with our forecast area under the western edge of high pressure circulating over the Desert Southwest.
Dry conditions and warm temperatures are on tap this weekend as high pressure briefly builds in. Stronger Delta breeze possible Sunday could lead to even cooler highs for marine/Delta influenced areas.
If the above reasoning is correct, there should be a decent amount of sunshine this afternoon across much of the area, causing temperatures to rise into the upper 80s to low 90s with tropical dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. A stronger upper trough and surface cold front will approach northwest Wisconsin in the late afternoon, and produce a line or convective complex that moves into northcentral Wisconsin in the early evening and across the rest of the area overnight. Sunday should be a breezy and cooler day, with temperatures closer to normal for this time of the year.
Satellite and upper-air analysis shows a broad anticyclone draped across almost the entire southern United States. In addition, a closed low remains in place off the coast of SoCAL. In addition, high pressure will lead to a round of warm temperatures today, with a high of 110 forecast within the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon.
540 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2020 A trof will cross the region today. High pressure will build across the region Sunday.
Northwest flow will continue across the Northern Rockies today, keeping temperatures a few degrees cooler than normal with mostly dry conditions.
/issued 317 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020/ (Today and Tonight) Water vapor imagery shows a flattened upper level ridge stretching across much of the southern CONUS this morning.
842 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2020 High pressure will build across the region through Sunday.
Upper level high pressure over the southeastern US will remain in control of our weather through the next couple of days. A weak easterly wave will move along the southern periphery of the ridge to our north today, followed by the ridge building south across the region tonight through Sunday. Temperatures will be warm once again with the presence of the upper ridge over us and the drier air aloft.
Cold front being analyzed from Rapid City to just south of Sheridan to Yellowstone NP this morning. Cold front forecast to drop to near a line from Cheyenne to Laramie to Riverton by noon time today. Approaching cold front from the north will cause an uptick in wind speeds by mid to late morning in the 15-16Z range for the WY terminals. Cold front currently over northern Wyoming this morning. Cooler temperatures and higher humidity behind the front will keep fire weather conditions in check east of the front. gusty west winds and warmer temperatures will create critical conditions over Carbon County.
High pressure aloft, low atmospheric moisture, and a surface thermal trough of low pressure across interior California will continue to result in hot afternoons and cool overnights for the interior.
Breezy and a little cooler today under upper trough and behind last night's cold front.
Tweaked forecast for next 24 hours to account for latest CAM guidance trends, favoring thundershowers on the Sierra Nevada with cumulus buildups on the higher terrain elsewhere. Meanwhile, the overall weather pattern changes little with our forecast area under the western edge of high pressure circulating over the Desert Southwest.
An upper wave and cold front over the nrn Great Plains is still expected to initiate another severe MCS over central MN late this afternoon and early evening. The weak cold front will pass Sun AM with lower dewpoints arriving throughout the day.
Across the east central we expect the showers there to continue to diminish as they move out of the area as the low level frontogenetic forcing, which has sustained them today, is now diminish.
The highest dewpoints are also off to the NW with some obs showing values in the upper 70s.
High pressure is building into the region and will keep things generally clear and dry and a bit more comfortable (less humid) for the next couple of days.
Dry and warm weather continues this eve with with high pressure over the region, but changes will commence late tonight as higher dewpoints surge over the region.
212 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020 Today is the last day for a while with widespread triple digit heat across the region as the ridge hangs back for one more period. We'll begin to see the upper level pattern shift with a break in the ridge and lower heights positioned over the Southern Plains. Precip chances will be very similar each afternoon as well with convection positioned over the higher terrain locales and adjacent valleys.
310 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020 Tonight and Sunday: Visible imagery showing an extensive cumulus field over the area, but very little convection, mainly confined to areas where the low level theta-e is maximized. Very Little convection is expected again Sunday and mainly confined to the south as sprawling mid/upper level ridge over the southern CONUS continues to build warmth/dryness aloft.
Weak surface and Mid and upper level ridge remains in place through the short term and should help to keep these storms from getting to strong. The Mid to upper level ridging is centered mainly across N GA right over the deeper lower level moisture moving in from the NE. 01 High pressure and weak zonal flow will remain in place for most of the forecast period. High pressure aloft will keep us in a hot an humid pattern fueling afternoon thunderstorms.
Discussion: Stronger upper level wave will remain north of the area as a cold front is dragged across the area tonight. The best mechanism looks to be associated with the cold front and weak H85 LLJ convergence tonight across the area. Deep layer shear is rather weak however, the low level shear in the HRRR looks to be strong, near 30 knots. Tomorrow will be quieter as cooler H85 temps move in with the cold front.
The synoptic scale regime across the TN Valley will continue to be dominated by a strong subtropical ridge in the mid-levels, extending from the southern Rockies to the southern Mid-Atlantic coast.
246 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020 (Tonight and Sunday) Latest satellite imagery and analysis shows a broad upper ridge remaining over the southern and southeastern US. Afternoon highs have been trending downward each afternoon as the ridge weakens and shifts north and east.
Guidance continues to portray an upper level trough swinging through the Central U.
Semi-zonal flow continues through much of the upcoming week, with the latter portion featuring a building mid-level ridge as a trough dips into the Pacific Northwest.
303 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020 Rain chances will be low tonight due to the persistence of high pressure over the area.
A weak mid-level trough and light surface flow is allowing for sufficient seabreeze showers and thunderstorms to develop along the coast this morning. /issued 330 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): KBRO radar indicates isold conv firing south of the Rio Grande associate with the inverted 500 mb trough axis that has moved inland over the RGV/Deep South TX. This inverted trough will continue pushing west underneath the broad ridge axis in place over the southern U. This trough axis will combine with the daytime heating today to give the region a persistent potential for conv today. This general weakness in the ridging will allow for a little lower high temps today. As the inverted troffing drifts westward into Sun, the overall moisture levels across the region will decrease somewhat which may limit the conv potential on Sun.
An upper ridge will build into the area for warm and dry weather.
351 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020 A surface cold front has pushed just east and southeast of the FA this afternoon, with light northwesterly flow across the area. but a building H5 ridge aloft will hep to provide subsident drying and suppress shower activity.
Temperatures across the whole region should be 2-4 degrees warmer than yesterday. A strong thermal trough pattern will continue to produce northerly gales and very steep seas for areas south of Port Orford and generally beyond 3 NM from shore through Sunday afternoon. Winds will lower some Sunday night as the the thermal trough weakens.
The main threat looks to be from winds as the lower levels are still very dry, with fairly deep inverted-V profiles.
Most of the activity will initiate off the higher terrain and slowly move over the lower elevations. Satellite and upper-air analysis shows a broad anticyclone draped across almost the entire southern United States. In addition, a closed low remains in place off the coast of SoCAL. In addition, high pressure will lead to a round of warm temperatures today, with a high of 110 forecast within the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon.
Dry and warm weather continues tonight with high pressure over the region.
The subtropical ridge axis remains situated off the east coast of the CONUS, and continues to provide the steering flow we find ourselves under.
Somewhat warmer and drier inland today with a less robust marine layer this weekend. The slight compression of the marine layer combine with a slight uptick in 500mb heights/850mb temps resulted in slightly warmer temperatures across the interior. Latest 24 hour trends show many interior spots 4-8 degrees warmer than yesterday. Cooler temperatures continue at the coast, which isn't that surprising given the clouds. Temperatures will be seasonal for the rest of the weekend and then below normal by midweek as another upper low moves over the region. SFO Bridge Approach.
75" with the majority of this confined to the lower levels. Despite sufficient low level moisture, convection will still be hard to come by as mid level ridge draped over north MS continues to build warmth aloft. Strong ridging aloft will continue to assert itself across the region during the period. This, combined with dew points in the low to mid 70s, will result in afternoon heat indices between 100F-105F, with index values peaking closer to 105F in the Delta. Quiet conditions are expected tonight, as lows fall into the low and middle 70s. /19/ A rather stagnant weather pattern will be in place for the week as broad upper ridging will be in place.
A broad deep layer ridge of high pressure continues to extend across the Tennessee Valley and southeastern states this afternoon. Lows tonight range in the lower to mid 70s inland and in the upper 70s to around 80 near the coast and beaches. Highs Sunday should once again range in the lower to mid 90s over interior portions of the region and around 90 degrees near the immediate coast and beaches.
1130 AM MDT Sat Jul 18 2020 Current surface map shows MCS outflow boundary backing into western South Dakota, with cold front across western North Dakota into northern Wyoming. Cold front continues to move through forecast area this morning. 3-4mb/3hr pressure rises behind the cold front will result in a period of gusty northwest winds.
The ridge continues to slowly break down which will help cool highs a few more degrees compared to today. Jordan The weakness in the upper level ridge will persist through the middle of the upcoming week which will help to sustain more seasonable temperatures (mid to upper 90's) across the area. This feature will be present through midweek before the ridge begins to strengthen back towards the forecast area, shunting the better precipitation chances farther west.
The lowest chance of rain is across south central Kansas including Medicine Lodge and Pratt. Temperatures will be cooler Sunday with the front stalling out, loss of downslope, more cloud cover and possible precipitation.
/Tonight through Sunday Night/ The broad upper level ridge that has dominated our weather for the last couple of weeks has finally weakened. A weak mid-level trough in the Northwest Gulf of Mexico moving towards the Texas Coastal Bend has enhanced the sea breeze enough his afternoon for it to reach portions of Deep East Texas. The vast majority of locations have remained under Heat Advisory criteria today despite warmer temperatures due to drier air mixing down to the surface from aloft. This may offset the lower dewpoints somewhat. However, the higher heat index values appear to be too localized and isolated to warrant a Heat Advisory with this forecast package.
148 PM MDT Sat Jul 18 2020 Water vapor shows upper trof working through the Northern Plains with weak upper ridging over the Pac NW. As temps rise and return flow strengthens across our western zones in the afternoon, decreasing stability invof an inverted surface trof and an approaching short wave embedded in the northwest flow aloft will lead to some thunderstorm development in northeast WY by mid afternoon.
159 PM MDT Sat Jul 18 2020 The cold front was analyzed to be south of most of the forecast area, and extending west to east across southern Wyoming at 20Z this afternoon. Dry and slightly cooler weather will be the focus across the area through Sunday through Sunday night.
313 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020 The cold front will continue to push through the CWA the remainder of this afternoon and evening. As for Sunday, temperatures will be cooler with the colder airmass in place.
A weak cold front currently stretches roughly from a line south of Wendover to Sandy to Duchesne and will continue to slowly move south and east through the morning and early afternoon. Expect convection across the higher terrain again today. Issued at 507 AM MDT A very warm airmass will remain in place across the area through at least the first half of the week as high pressure gradually builds into the area. A weak cold front will bring slightly cooler temperatures to northern Utah today, but portions of southern Utah will be a bit warmer than yesterday.
Afternoon high temperatures will again be in the in the lower to middle 90s over central Illinois, with heat index values above 105 degrees. It will be a little cooler in the northern sections due to the front.
235 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2020 Lower tropospheric ridging centered near the Georgia Coast supports moderate northeast to east breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. The Florida Keys will remain on the southern flank of the subtropical ridge, consisting of enhanced BL easterlies, occasional low level moisture surges, and periods of weak cyclonic curvature.
Highs near climatologically normal values are expected once again with most locations reaching the lower 90s. Elevated dew points will continue to push heat index values into the lower 100s, however.
251 PM MDT Sat Jul 18 2020 Isolated to widely scattered showers & thunderstorms will continue to develop across southeast Wyo and the western Neb Panhandle thru the afternoon & evening as a cold front stalls along the Wyoming & Colorado border. A strengthening SSE low level jet interacting with the W-E oriented warm front across east central WY and the northern NE Panhandle could promote chances for elevated thunderstorms, especially between 09z-15z. Moist south to southeast low-level flow will yield dew points in the 50s and even low 60s on Sunday across the high plains.
Forecast looks on track today for above average temperatures by late afternoon and a few isolated storms over the high Sierra south of I- 80. A wide range of overnight temperatures is expected in the Valley/foothills tonight with the northern Sac Valley receiving little relief from the heat with lows in the low to mid 70s. Near the Delta and areas influenced by the region, overnight lows will be much cooler in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Temperatures have climbed into the lower to mid 90s across the region this afternoon with heat indices ranging from the upper 90s to 108 at Pittsfield.
349 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2020 A subtropical ridge over the southern half of the CONUS and a broad Bermuda High will continue to provide PA with hot and humid weather for the next few days. Then, we'll wait for a front to drop down across the lower lakes and crank up convection. As the forcing runs into the ridging in place, it will have a tough time breaking it down. Ridging in place to start the work week with weak westerly flow.
1110 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2020 Lower tropospheric ridging centered near the Georgia Coast supports moderate northeast to east breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. Moderate to occasionally fresh easterly breezes will prevail across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys through the forecast period as high pressure persists to our north.
1136 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020 The synoptic scale regime across the TN Valley will continue to be dominated by a strong subtropical ridge in the mid-levels, extending from the southern Rockies to the southern Mid-Atlantic coast.
After midnight the lower levels of the atmosphere slowly saturate with low extensive low cloudiness possible. Low temperatures fall into the low to upper 60 degree range.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night): A weak 500mb inverted trough continues to slowly move westward across South Texas this afternoon. Tonight, the trough exits to our west with drier conditions expected overnight.
1028 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2020 Currently - A low level trough that had affected the Keys over the past few days has now pushed west of our area. Lower level ridging is located well north of our area, stretching westward into the southeastern United States. Short Term Update - Surface through lower level ridging will remain north of our area through the overnight. Ridging across the southeastern United States will maintain moderate easterly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
954 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2020 A subtropical ridge over the southern half of the CONUS and a broad Bermuda High will continue to provide PA with hot and humid weather for the next few days. A weak cold front moving southeast from the Upper Great Lakes will generate strong storms Sunday evening. Winds will be light and variable overnight beneath a weak ridge at the sfc and aloft. As the forcing runs into the ridging in place, it will have a tough time breaking it down. Ridging in place to start the work week with weak westerly flow.
/issued 212 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020/ Today is the last day for a while with widespread triple digit heat across the region as the ridge hangs back for one more period. We'll begin to see the upper level pattern shift with a break in the ridge and lower heights positioned over the Southern Plains. Precip chances will be very similar each afternoon as well with convection positioned over the higher terrain locales and adjacent valleys.
/issued 316 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night): A weak 500mb inverted trough continues to slowly move westward across South Texas this afternoon. Tonight, the trough exits to our west with drier conditions expected overnight.
830 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2020 Low level E/ESE flow will continue around the Atlantic ridge with deeper moisture lingering across Martin/St Lucie and Okeechobee counties overnight.
/issued 246 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020/ (Tonight and Sunday) Latest satellite imagery and analysis shows a broad upper ridge remaining over the southern and southeastern US. Afternoon highs have been trending downward each afternoon as the ridge weakens and shifts north and east.
647 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020 Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across portions of our MN counties behind the cold front, but have been struggling to gain strength until they get close to the boundary in central MN. A surface cold front has pushed just east and southeast of the FA this afternoon, with light northwesterly flow across the area. but a building H5 ridge aloft will hep to provide subsident drying and suppress shower activity.
The high-res guidance has continued to show development along the front since yesterday. With the frontal passage today, temps for Sunday will be much cooler. Upper level ridging builds in for the second half of the work- week.
Temperatures were on track to bottom out in the low to mid 70s by morning. /22/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Sunday: Visible imagery showing an extensive cumulus field over the area, but very little convection, mainly confined to areas where the low level theta-e is maximized. Very Little convection is expected again Sunday and mainly confined to the south as sprawling mid/upper level ridge over the southern CONUS continues to build warmth/dryness aloft.