Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN A MILDER FLOW INTO THE AREA ALLOWING DAYTIME HIGHS TO REBOUND INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 IN SOME AREAS. UPPER LONGWAVE TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH AND CLOSE OFF OVER THE DESERT SW. TODAYS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SIGNIFICANT RIDGING BUILDING NORTH INTO THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY THEN SHIFTING EWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE CAROLINAS. AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SWD FROM SERN CANADA INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND STALL OUT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PCPN ASSOCD WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AIRSPACE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR FLYING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A COUPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE FIRST WAVE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
AS IT DOES IT WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS.
142 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
WHERE CONDS ARE COOLER AND EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH OR SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT LIFTS TOWARDS WYOMING. DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER WAVE ROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING. WITH THE LOW SLOW TO MOVE.
202 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S.
351 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 THE MOST NOTABLE FEATURE FOR THIS MORNING/S WEATHER IS THE ONGOING LARGE RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT IN TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT ALONG THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE. COULDN/T HELP BUT NOTICE THEIR COOLER TREND FOR DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL STILL PUT MUCH OF THE CWA IN THE LOW TO MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT MOISTURE INFLUX REALLY WON/T DO MUCH TO HELP REMEDY THE LOW RH PROBLEM GIVEN THE RISING TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER KENTUCKY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MORE CLOUDS. WE TRANSITION INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME AS A WEST COAST RIDGE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST. BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN THE DAKOTAS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. HIGHS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN FAVORABLE INSOLATION. WITH GREATEST LOWERING THU NIGHT AS CORE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF ANCHORED FROM MI THUMB INTO NERN CWA AND 1033 MB ANTICYCLONE SITUATED NORTH OF LK SUPR. BLENDED POPS A BIT EGGREGIOUS IN BRINGING POP/WX FRI NIGHT AMID DEVOLUTION OF SPLIT FLOW REGIME/STRONG LONGWAVE RIDGING INTO GRTLKS AS SWRN SYSTEM LIFTS THROUGH PLAINS IN NEG TILTED FASHION.
351 AM PDT TUE OCT 20 2015 Warmer and drier weather is expected over interior NorCal this week. Skies have cleared out for the most part across the region, though there are still some mid and high clouds spilling over the ridge into the northwest corner of the forecast area and in the Sierra south of Tahoe. Warmer and drier conditions expected to predominate the remainder of the week across NorCal as high pressure covers the area.
348 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 An upper level trough is currently located across southern California early this morning, with upper level ridging occurring across the central U.
TEMPS POSSIBLY STAYING IN THE LOW 60S. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA INTO OK EALRY ON SAT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REST OF THE AREA FOR SAT EVENING INTO SUN. PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED STOUT/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
354 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 (Today and tonight) An upper trough over California will dig slowly southeast tonight, becoming a cut off upper low over Southern Arizona. Dry conditions, however, are expected today and tonight, with the lift from the upper trough still west of West Central Texas. High cloudiness will be on the increase late this afternoon as the upper trough/low approaches from the West. Highs should not be affected by mid/upper clouds today, as the clouds will arrive late, allowing readings to reach into the lower and mid 80s. Stratus developing after midnight, however, will limit temperature falls, with lows expected in the lower 60s.
333 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY AS IT SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD. THIS LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEGRADE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS LINGERED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. A LEE TROUGH FORMED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE HAS SHIFTED INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA TOWARDS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND WILL RESULT IN OUR FIRST PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN ABOUT A WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS IN PLACE TODAY AND THIS FEATURE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
427 AM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FAR SWRN US/BAJA AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO SERN ARIZONA BY LATE TONIGHT. BEFORE THEN THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY THIS AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO ALLOW FOR SOME SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS. FINALLY FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB TEMPS DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO TODAY SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH MID 70S OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS. THE MODELS HAVE AN UPPER CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AT 12Z WEDNESDAY.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM THE WEST BETWEEN 16Z AND 00Z, AS A PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGS BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA. A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN U. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR DRIER CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH (ABOVE 9000FT) THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT MAY LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FT OVER CENTRAL MT TUESDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LITTLE BELT MTNS.
A COLD FRONT IS STILL ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY THE START OF THE WEEK. MODERATE GRADIENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH GRADIENT UNDULATING FROM COMPRESSION TO RELAXATION OVER TIME IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENTS IN THE LOWER GULF.
AS THIS LOW MOVES NORTH. A DIRTY UPPER RIDGE OVER SE STATES WILL SHIFT WWD TO FILL THE VOID. THE RIDGE. WHEN EASTERLY WAVE WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN IN UPPER RIDGE OVER AREA.
AREA WILL HOWEVER REMAIN UNDER A WEAKNESS ALOFT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND SOUTHWEST CONUS ANTICYCLONE.
SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING THEN A LITTLE COOLER. COLD FRONT MAKING QUICK PROGRESS DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. A ALTHOUGH WITH SHALLOW COOLER AIR SPILLING INTO THE REGION.
1213 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
1106 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 PAIR OF COLD FRONTS DROPPING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN EARLIER TODAY STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE FEATURE OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING THEN A LITTLE COOLER. COLD FRONT MAKING QUICK PROGRESS DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. A ALTHOUGH WITH SHALLOW COOLER AIR SPILLING INTO THE REGION.
THIS GUIDANCE IS MESHING WELL WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM-WRF SUITE (INCLUDING THE HRRR).
AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL AND TEMPS FOLLOWING THE CURVE WELL SO NOT PLANNING ANY CHANGES ATTM. SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY IN ALL AREAS BUT TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE.
(Friday Night through Thursday) Upper high pressure will continue to build eastward over the southwestern states this weekend as an inverted upper trough expands into south Texas from northern Mexico.
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO FRIDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A MUCH STRONGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
THE STRONG U/L RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO RIDGE WESTWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ARKANSAS WILL WORK SLOWLY THIS WAY ON FRIDAY SO EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE MID STATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY EVENING.
DRIER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH SO AGAIN EXPECT COOLER MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS. HOWEVER CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO/NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. A REMNANT OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED OVER THE REGION. A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS EAST COLORADO. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE IN SPEED BY LATE MORNING AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS BY TO OUR NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FA WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY. WITH THE MPX AREA REMAINING WITHIN A BELT OF ACTIVE WESTERLIES AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE SRN CONUS.
LOOK FOR ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EXTENDS ACROSS COLORADO.
Friday will be cooler and the day to watch for scattered showers and thunderstorms across the northern mountains, and gusty winds combining with low relative humidity levels. A small chance of showers and thunderstorms will return for the beginning of the next work week as a weak upper level low moves over the Inland Northwest. Temperatures will remain warmer than normal for this time of year. Winds remain breezy and should remain breezy here through the night with the cold front approaching from the west at this time. All around it will be a breezy across the region, even early in the day with the cold front pushing through. Elsewhere winds are expected to pick up again toward early/mid-morning (13-15Z) with the incoming cold front and remain breezy through the day.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER EAST-CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AND PARTIAL CLEARING EXISTS BEHIND THE LOW AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE HIGHER RES MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP CONVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD FORM. BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION FOR THE MORNING THEN MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. COMFORTABLE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
ALONG WITH A FEW STRATOCU IN THE LOWER LVLS. AREA WILL HOWEVER REMAIN UNDER A WEAKNESS ALOFT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND SOUTHWEST CONUS ANTICYCLONE.
MEANWHILE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE (REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL) OVER EAST CENTRAL OK WILL SLOWLY TRACK ENE INTO NORTH CENTRAL AR BY 12Z/FRI.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. STEERING FLOW IS RATHER WEAK BUT SOME CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO PROPAGATE A BIT FURTHER EAST INTO THE PANHANDLES THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET LATER TONIGHT AND A WEAKNESS MOVING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. ON FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA. OVER THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SWRN U. SUBTLE PV ANOMALY MOVING ACROSS NRN WY IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO LARGER SCALE SFC BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHED INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF WY/MT. AS A RESULT OF HIGH SETTLING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AS HEIGHTS FALL IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. ASSUMING STRATUS BURNS OFF QUICKER TMRW BETTER INSOLATION AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH ABOVE AVE. LEE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL ALSO ALLOW SRLY WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING ANCHORED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. DUE IN PART TO THE WEAKENING RIDGE AS IT MOVES EAST. TEMPERATURES ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. GIVEN THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND AMPLE INSTABILITY.
928 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION. THERE IS SOME DECENT INSTABILITY NOTED IN THE LOW LEVELS.
EXTENSIVE MIDLEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDED NORTH THROUGH THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF BILL.
1253 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE COAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
740 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA. IT IS THIS AREA WHERE WE STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME INITIAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS THERE IS SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG THETA E RIDGE SETTING UP HERE. HIGH PRESSURE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MOVES IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD SET UP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONTAL IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN SE OREGON.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH ANOTHER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL ARE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THESE TWO RIDGES.
1242 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR DURING FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
AND ANOTHER SOUTH WHERE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE AND WHERE SPC HAS SHADED AN ELEVATED SLIGHT RISK AREA.
DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GLANCING BLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ENOUGH TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND MAY ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW AND MID 90S. REMNANTS OF BILL CONTINUE TO OPEN UP AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS THE SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE HIGHER LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S COAST.
BUT MORE STORMS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST IN KENEDY COUNTY CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IS FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY. SOME SORT OF FEEDER BAND SETUP WAS BEING INDICATED ON SOME OF THE MODELS BUT THINK THAT THE BUILDING RIDGE MAY BE TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME. TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS FORECAST ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR KCXO AND THE METRO HOUSTON SITES.
RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD EAST.
/ISSUED 253 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015/ AS EXPECTED THERE HAS BEEN MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY AS THE GRIP OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO LOOSEN. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE COOLER AGAIN. /ISSUED 336 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015/ UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN SUCH A DOMINANT FEATURE RECENTLY.
653 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL AND TEMPS FOLLOWING THE CURVE WELL SO NOT PLANNING ANY CHANGES ATTM. SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY IN ALL AREAS BUT TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING HOT WEATHER TO THE VALLEYS. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS WITH COOLER WITH LIMITED CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS AT THE BEACHES.
958 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 THE UPPER LOW/REMNANT OF BILL IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SW MISSOURI.
TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS FORECAST ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR KCXO AND THE METRO HOUSTON SITES.
706 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. TROPICAL PLUME FROM REMNANTS OF TS BILL BRING REINTRODUCED INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. REMNANTS OF TS BILL WILL BE MOVING INTO ARKANSAS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE HELPING SLOW ITS PROGRESS NORTH AND EVENTUALLY HELP IN TURNING MORE EAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
1123 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION WILL GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
906 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
800 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2015 EXCEPT A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE THE CAP. COULD SEE A FEW ADDITIONAL WEAK SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO COLORADO FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. IT WILL BE WEAK AND SHORT LIVED AND LIKELY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SKIES WILL CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.
THE HIGH PORTION OF THE BLOCK IS OVER THE BERING SEA AND THE EASTERN ANCHOR LOW IS OVER THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS. AN ONSHORE MARINE PUSH WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE RIDGES AND EAST SIDE TODAY. INLAND AREAS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE WARMER INLAND DUE TO THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS.
WHILE THE HIGHEST RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE OVER THE INTERIOR.
FORECAST OVERNIGHT STILL INDICATE THAT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND AT THE LOWER LEVELS TO GET SOME LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH AND THEN SLIDE NORTHWARD. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS BUT MODELS HAVE NOW BEEN CONSISTENT FOR TWO RUNS. 16 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH ANOTHER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL ARE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THESE TWO RIDGES.
AND INCREASING LIFT/MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 73 92 74 91 / 20 40 30 40 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 72 90 70 88 / 50 40 20 40 OAK RIDGE, TN 72 90 71 86 / 50 40 30 50 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 88 66 87 / 50 50 30 40.
AN 850MB COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR/CENTRAL IW INTO CENTRAL IA. WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND IT.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR CLIMATE NORMALS WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS SE KS TO NEAR 90 IN CENTRAL KS.
CURRENT TRENDS AND FORECAST INDICATE THAT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND AT THE LOWER LEVELS TO GET SOME LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH AND THEN SLIDE NORTHWARD. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND WILL TAKE ANOTHER REALLY GOOD LOOK AT THINGS WITH THE NEXT TAF SET. 16 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WITH DRY AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING THE DOMINANT WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS THIS WEEK.
954 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA BEHIND PNEUMONIA-TYPE COLD FRONT THAT RACED DOWN THE LAKE AND PUSHED INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE SHOWERS ALONG WITH A QUICK WIND SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH EAST TO WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. THUS KEPT POPS ON THE LOW END. A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WITH LOWS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS TONIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. EXCEPT FOR NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP IT COOLER.
THE LATE EVENING LOCAL SOUNDING SHOWS A SLIGHT DIP IN MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVEL.
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY STRENGTHENING ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO. FRIDAY WILL PRIMARILY SUNNY AND WARMER.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO WI AND COLD FRONT STRETCHED TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALOFT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO TRY AND HANG ON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH NORTHERN FRINGE NEARING THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN IMPULSES RIDING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT AS RIDGING SUPPRESSES AND FRONT BEGINS MOVING SOUTH AND EAST. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE RIDGE CONTINUING TO SAG SOUTH. COLD FRONT INCHING CLOSER.
930 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE COAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
ON FRI A WEAK UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 90S ACRS THE SERN PLAINS AND IN THE 80S OVR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND FOR SUNNIER WARMER WEATHER.
706 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF QUEBEC AND CROSS MAINE TONIGHT.
In any event, increasing southeast flow ahead of next system should cause fairly rapid northward clearing/erosion of this low cloudiness during the afternoon over about the southeast half of the CWA, with the expectation that the edge of the clouds will be roughly from KMYJ-KSTL-KSLO by mid afternoon. Generally went towards the warmest MAV guidance over our southwest counties while leaning to the cooler MET numbers over the northeast part of our CWA.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO CANADA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ON WEDNESDAY ACQUIRING MOISTURE AS IT HEADS EAST. RAIN WILL EXIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS.
/ISSUED 435 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2015/ A POTENT CLOSED LOW CHURNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN CO INTO WESTERN NE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. A TIGHTENING LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT WILL ACT WITH DEEPENING DIURNAL MIXING INTO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO STRENGTHEN SURFACE WINDS BEHIND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL KEEP MIXING HEIGHTS BELOW H7.