Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GENERATE A WARMING TREND BEGINNING LATE THIS WEEK. THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER WILL CONTINUE EAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. TRAILING THIS TROUGH WILL BE A RATHER STABLE AND AND INCREASINGLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL QUICKLY ELIMINATE ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RATHER STRONG UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL SHIFT EAST AND ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
A FEW FLURRIES MAY BE FOUND IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND ACROSS FAR NW SD THIS MORNING PER THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. DRY CONDS AND WARM NW UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE SHIFTS BACK EAST.
344 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015 THE COLD FRONT IS AT OUR NORTHERN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF A HIGH PRESSURE BUBBLE ENTERING NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES ARE BUILDING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
252 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2015 Issued at 252 CST WED MAR 4 2015 An upper level trough continues to dive southeast across the plains and towards the area this afternoon. To the east of the trough a strong upper level jet streak has developed from northeastern Missouri into the Great Lakes region. The upper level trough and jet is producing strong lift across the area and snow is occurring across much of the area this afternoon. Amounts north of this line to along the I-44 corridor will range from 1 to 3 inches with amounts tapper off to around a dusting near the Highway 54 corridor. A very cold air mass will continue to spread south and lows will bottom out in the lower to middle teens tonight with wind chill values in the zero to five above range.
259 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015 12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB LOW OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA WITH AN 850MB FRONT RUNNING FROM THE LOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SEVERAL WEAK TROFS RAN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO MINNESOTA. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY BE 3-5 DEGREES WARMER WHICH WOULD KEEP WIND CHILLS ABOVE THE THRESHOLD OF 20 BELOW ZERO.
AS UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH WITH THE SNOW BAND WEAKENING AND AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. EXPECTING THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAND FROM HUTCHINSON TO NEWTON TO MARION.
1055 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015 ADJUSTED TEMPS OVER THE LOWER VALLEYS OF SERN UTAH AND EXTREME WRN COLORADO. SHORT TERM TRENDS SUGGEST THAT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER. TROUGH AXIS WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM MODELS MAINTAIN THIS TREND WITH LINGERING FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LIMITED TO THE HIGH COUNTRY. THE COLD FRONT WORKED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LAST EVENING PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW. THE UPPER TROUGH WAS OVERHEAD THIS EARLY MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MTNS. NW FLOW CONTINUES ON THURSDAY AS A FAMILIAR RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST. A STRONG RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE WESTERN U.
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN ALONG THE WEST COAST.
EXPECT SOME SLEET TO ALSO OCCUR THIS EVENING DURING THE TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTH INTO THE RIDGES. WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE RIDGES BEFORE PRECIP TURNS TO ALL SNOW. ONLY CAVEAT IS IF PRECIP STAYS A MIX OF SLEET ACROSS THE RIDGES LONGER THIS EVENING AMOUNTS COULD BE HELD DOWN.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW.
DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE ATL EXTENDING ACROSS CEN FL CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH DRY AND WARM PERSISTING. S/WV MVG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO MS RIVER VALLEY WILL BREAK DOWN/SUPPRESS THE MID-UPR LEVEL RIDGE LATE TOMORROW AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE. FOG IS REALLY THE ONLY ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM AS SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILES AND RIDGE AXIS PROVIDE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. LEANED TOWARD WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AND BLENDS FOR HIGHS WHICH LIMITED HIGHS IN 87-88 DEG F RANGE IN SRN AREAS THU.
331 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING.
LONG WAVE RIDGE HAS RE-DEVELOPED OFF THE WEST COAST AND WILL REMAIN THERE THE REST OF THE WEEK.
A SERIES OF SFC TROFS WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE FIRST TROF WAS OVER THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AT 08Z. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WAS DROPPING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND MOVING THROUGH ND AND NW MN AT 08Z. IT WILL PUSH THE SFC TROFS THROUGH THE REGION WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SOLAR TODAY. BEHIND THIS UPPER TROF. COLD AIR SURGES IN ONCE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS DIFFER IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTION OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH A SFC TROF EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE DRIER AIR FROM THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHUTS DOWN ANY LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. THE HIGH DRIFTS TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN A WAA PATTERN.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO USHER IN DRIER AIR THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND BRING OCCASIONAL FLURRIES TO PARTS OF THE AREA. THESE HIGHS WILL MOST LIKELY COME IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE DAY CAP THE HIGHS AND LEAD TO SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AS SURFACE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIRMASS SHIFTS INTO THE AREA.
ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS HAS BEEN PROPAGATING SOUTH IN AN AREA OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN COLORADO. LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN BUILDING DOWN THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND ADVECTING SOME VERY DRY AIR INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE DRY AIR HAS KEPT SNOW FROM REACHING THE GROUND FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT BUT SNOW HAS SINCE BEGUN TO ACCUMULATE AS THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN UP. THE SNOW WILL BE ENDING BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WILL RESULT FROM AMPLIFIED WEST COAST RIDGING EXPECTED TO DEVELOP HEADING INTO HE WEEKEND.
High pressure is building aloft and the airmass is beginning a lengthy period of warming and drying.
Latest water vapor imagery showing deeper moisture aloft surging northeast from the Baja upper low across the southeast half of KS and into the OH river valley. although the lows across the east central counties may need to be lowered with any significant snowcover.
1001 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015 SNOW IS FINALLY WINDING DOWN AS THE FINAL SNOW BAND SAGS SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES AND THE JET ENERGY DEPARTS. TODAY WILL BE THE LAST COLD DAY AS THE LLVL THERMAL TROUGH SWEEPS EAST INTO THE PLAINS.
458 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION.
1225 PM PST WED MAR 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA AND REMAIN OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
ROBUST DEEP LATITUDINAL POSITIVE TILTED LONGWAVE TROF SUPPORTING EXTREME BAROCLINICITY FM NERN TX TO TN VALLEY. BOTTOM TROF/INFLECTION OF ARCTIC AIRMASS EXPECTED THU/THU NIGHT COINCIDENT WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF AXIS ACRS CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP DROPPING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS WITH FREEZING PRECIP FOR LCTNS IN THE LAKES REGION OF SE TX AND IN CNTRL LA FROM SUNRISE TO AROUND 10AM WITH FREEZING TEMPS XPCD FOR AEX AND LAKES REGION IN SE TX.
342 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2015 Mid-level dry air advection fully underway this afternoon as the main northern wave trough approaches the region from the northwest. Dry air in the lower levels should prevent any fog or haze from developing. The southerly wind shift should occur over central KS late morning allowing temps to rise into the lower 40s, while eastern KS stays in the mid 30s.
1144 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 956 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/ THE WARM FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING HAS SUNK TO THE SOUTH AND EVEN WASHED OUT A BIT. THE COLD FRONT AS OF 15Z IS THROUGH NASHVILLE AND STILL SITTING NORTH OF OUR TN COUNTIES AND STRETCHING DOWN THROUGH WESTERN MS AND IT IS NOT MOVING VERY FAST. WITH 15Z TEMPS STILL IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S. KEPT THUNDER IN BECAUSE THERE IS SOME DECENT INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AHEAD OF IT. RAIN COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES AFTER 23/00Z AND WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AROUND 9-11Z.
128 PM PST WED MAR 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE DRY.
1252 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS QUEBEC TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY A LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS OFFSHORE ALONG 14OW WITH DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST INTO THURSDAY WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE OVER THE RIDGE. BUT THE MARINE INVERSION WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE LIMITED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND COASTAL AREAS. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE WEST COAST AND STRENGTHEN THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE DRY SFC COLD FRONT IS IN SRN UTAH AND WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AZ THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND ONTARIO TODAY PUSHING A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT ONCE THE WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WE WILL SEE DEW POINTS FALL RAPIDLY IN ITS WAKE ALONG WITH BREEZING CONDITIONS. COOLER AIR THEM MOVES INT TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. OTHERWISE THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE PASSING TROUGH WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
/ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015/ THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN SITUATED OVER THE GULF WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OFF THE COAST FRIDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S LATER TODAY AS THE EARLY MORNING CLOUDS BREAK UP. A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL THEN DEVELOP BY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER 80S.
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND THE CAP BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN. THIS WOULD ALSO RESULT IN AN AXIS OF HIGHER MAX TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR THE AFTERNOON COLD FRONTAL POSITION. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES COULD BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR A SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A WEAK TROUGH. THIS TROUGH, AND THE INTERACTION OF THE SEABREEZES ALONG IT WILL BE THE MECHANISM FOR FORCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE MODERATE LAPSE RATES, THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL AID IN PRECLUDING ANY SORT OF SEVERE HAIL THREAT THIS AFTERNOON.
932 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015 SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. UPDATES MADE THIS MORNING WERE MAINLY TO ADJUST POPS EARLY ON BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS APPROACHES ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
Mild again tonight ahead of an approaching cold front for Friday.
A LITTLE MORE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY ALONG WITH THE ADDITION OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN LA THEN SE LA BY LATE FRI EVENING. SOME SINGLE CELL ACTIVITY LOOKS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN AN AREA WHERE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IS NOT AT A LEVEL THAT LENDS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF ANY STRONG OR SEVERE TS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE WELL WITHIN THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT AS ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT STARTS TO WEAKEN.
A COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED INTO CENTRAL IOWA. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 50S. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH ILLINOIS IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. A COLD FRONT STALLS OUT TO OUR SOUTH AS THE MAIN FORCING MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. THE REST OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE US ABOVE FREEZING.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS IA TODAY AND BE SOUTH OF THE STATE TONIGHT.
1001 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY.
WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. THE WEAK RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER CLOUD COVER MAY BE LACKING TONIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF QUICKLY AFTER DARK AND COULD GET NEAR FREEZING AGAIN FOR PARTS OF THE ROGUE AND ILLINOIS VALLEY IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL BRING INCREASING NORTH WINDS TODAY WITH STEEP WIND WAVES IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN SET UP OFFSHORE.
WARM FRONT ZONE MOVING ACROSS MID TN THIS MRONING WILL PRODUCE SCT SHRA/TSRA.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS A COLD FRONT PROPAGATES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS AND MVFR STRATUS ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE.
UPPER TROF WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AND ASSOCIATED SFC SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER AIR ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
DEWPOINTS HAVE REBOUNDED SINCE YESTERDAY AS A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NWD INTO MIDDLE TN. MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL ADVANCE NWD INTO REGION BY 03/08Z AS SSW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AT 3 AM RIDGETOPS STILL HAD DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 20S. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR MORE PRECIP. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THE BEST SUPPORT FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AND THEN GET A PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE JKL FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH PROMPTS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE TO TRAVEL ALONG THE FRONT. AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA.
A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND EXTENDED INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI. A DRY LINE WAS EXTENDING OFF THE COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN TEXAS. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL CEILINGS COULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SETUP SHOULD ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON TEMPS TO GET INTO THE LOW 80S FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA TO THE LOW/MID 70S FOR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH AN INCREASING LLJ THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES IT INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED SEVERE CONDITIONALS. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE CAP TO WEAKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND 22Z-02Z TIME FRAME AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESSES ACROSS THE CWA.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SEASONAL.
HIGH PRES RIDGES ACRS FLA INTO THE NRN GULF WHILE LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE WAS SITUATED ACRS WRN TX/OK. THE LATEST WV IMAGERY AND UA ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ACRS THE LOWER MS VALLEY YESTERDAY IS NOW LIFTING ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE BACK TO THE WEST. ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S. AS THE LOW MOVES QUICKLY NE. WITH THE HIGHEST CHCS EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING. RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ON THE LOW SIDE. ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
/ISSUED 446 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA. AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. THE KSHV VAD WIND ARE ALREADY SHOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 25 AND 40 KTS IN THE LOWEST 2000 FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN DIG ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL AL. THIS SECONDARY BOUNDARY IS MOVING QUICKLY NWWD AND SHOULD COLLIDE WITH WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR NE AL/NW GA EARLY THIS MORNING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS WEEKEND.
Winds will subside early this evening with a cold front following but not until after Fri 12Z. Strong winds at the base of the upper trough will mix down to the surface in the Guadalupe Mountains today so the High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a High Wind Warning. The previously mentioned upper trough will pass over the Central Plains on Friday and send a cold front southward towards the CWA. This cold front is expected to push through the area Friday morning.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. THE COOL WEATHER IS SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SE OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SW WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE.
/ISSUED 358 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET INTO THE WEEKEND.
A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES TROFS ARE CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. SO WHAT IS IN STORE? WELL TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AND PRIMER FOR THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SWING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. MANY LOCATIONS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO STAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA.
/ISSUED 454 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015/ SFC COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED THRU THE FCST AREA AS OF THIS WRITING WILL RETREAT NWD TODAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. HIGHS YESTERDAY WARM UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER METRO AREAS TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS. PLAN ON RAISING THE HIGHS A LITTLE BIT FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST. /ISSUED 358 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET INTO THE WEEKEND.
758 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015 A WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH GEORGIA TODAY WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY SUNRISE TOMORROW AS THE TEMPERATURES APPROACH FREEZING. LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 40S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FAIRLY RAPIDLY AS WELL AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN KANSAS WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WHICH IS AROUND OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN THE LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM WESTERN WISCONSIN THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS AND INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. ON FRIDAY THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND COULD GET RATHER GUSTY AS TIMES. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL START TO DROP RATHER QUICKLY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD END.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM WESTERN WISCONSIN THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS AND INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. ON FRIDAY THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND COULD GET RATHER GUSTY AS TIMES. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL START TO DROP RATHER QUICKLY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD END.
TROWAL ON BACK SIDE OF THIS TROF IS DEVELOPING SOME LIGHT PCPN WHICH IS SPREADING INTO NORTHEAST MT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARD OUR AREA.
A cold front was pushing across the forecast area early this morning as a short wave trough was moving across southern Kansas. By late afternoon, the cold front is likely to stall out in far southeast KS but dewpoints in the upper 50s to around 60 will remain in place north of the front in east central KS, and expect some sunshine in the area to allow temperatures to warm up to around 70 by this afternoon. Overnight, the enhanced vertical motion with the incoming short wave trough is likely to support elevated showers and perhaps some thunderstorm activity.
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND VCT CROSSROADS. ALL THE WAY UP INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THOUGH A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. CAN BE EXPECTED THEN ON FRIDAY BEFORE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WITH A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVING FARTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM THE BRO CWFA. AND 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND BUILDING FARTHER NORTH.
1250 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015 SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE TEMPERATURES MADE IT INTO THE HIGH 60'S OVER A GOOD PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE MOVING A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. COLD FRONT WILL STALL AS IT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
A EXPANDING AREA OF STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
536 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015 UPPER FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY TODAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY.
Periods of light snow, rain/snow mix, and rain at lower elevations are expected through this aftn as temperatures slowly climb above freezing. Made a few minor forecast adjustments, namely to tweak high temps down a few degrees in some mid- and higher-elevation locations where hourly temps were running cooler than forecast.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A SHALLOW TROUGH OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND ZONAL FLOW FARTHER WEST. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE ZONAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH A BROAD RIDGE BULGING UP FROM MEXICO AND A BROAD TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH MOVING THROUGH OUR CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH INTERMITTENT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. LINGERING MOISTURE /ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH/. WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE ACCOMPANIED BY A DRIER STABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S OVER INLAND AREAS TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY/CAPE TO KICK OFF A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. THE COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S IN THE COOLER ONSHORE FLOW.
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW 20S/UPPER TEENS. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. MANY LOCATIONS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO STAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA.
938 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.