Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
643 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2020 A cold front will move across the area today and bring gusty winds, although temperatures will still be mild for this this of year with highs in the 70s.
445 AM MDT Wed Oct 7 2020 High pressure sliding into the northern plains with a band of mid level clouds and a few showers over the northeast corner of Montana this morning. Otherwise, today will be cooler with the clouds pushing east through the day. Low pressure spins up over Alberta with warm front/lee trof into central Montana by Thursday morning.
A cold front with limited moisture will cross Thursday morning, followed by high pressure late in the week. The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Delta will pass west then north of the area this weekend. Heights increasing aloft along with westerly/downslope flow will allow temps in the afternoon to rise above average, into the low- to- mid 80s for most. High pressure continues to build in from the west overnight, allowing for mostly clear skies.
650 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2020 High pressure builds over the area with warming temperatures through Thursday.
The weather pattern over the CONUS remains rather benign with a large ridge over the Four Corners region and an elongated trough over the Great Lakes region.
With limited moisture and better forcing for ascent progged north of the region; expect only an increase in cloud cover through the afternoon with the advancement of the trough, mainly north of the I-80 corridor. Larger impacts include gusty wind this afternoon as diurnal mixing combined with a lower level jet support sfc wind gusts to 25-30 mph, occasionally higher in the eastern ridges. Weak cold advection behind the trough will not ensue until very late in the day, so with plenty of insolation, and warmer air in place, temperature today will rise about 5 degrees above the calculated- normal. Building high pressure centered near Lake Michigan will support dry conditions Thursday. With the forecast area on the eastern flank of high pressure, cold advection in northerly flow should result in seasonal temperature values.
508 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2020 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low over northern Hudson Bay with a broad trough extending into the northern Great Lakes. At the surface, northwest winds were increasing between a deepening low exiting from northern Ontario into Quebec and a ridge building into the Plains.
It wl also be a few degrees warmer today with highs generally be in the lower and mid 80s.
With limited moisture and better forcing for ascent progged north of the region; expect only an increase in cloud cover through the afternoon with the advancement of the trough, mainly north of the I-80 corridor. Larger impacts include gusty wind this afternoon as diurnal mixing combined with a lower level jet support sfc wind gusts to 25-30 mph, occasionally higher in the eastern ridges. Weak cold advection behind the trough will not ensue until very late in the day, so with plenty of insolation, and warmer air in place, temperature today will rise about 5 degrees above the calculated- normal.
Temperatures will continue to warm up rapidly during the remainder of the morning and into early afternoon with highs expected to reach the lower 80s.
522 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2020 Currently have a band of scattered showers draped along a cold front extending from near Green Bay WI to near Minneapolis MN. Otherwise, temperatures as of 2 am were pretty mild for early October with reading ranging from the mid 50s to the lower 60s. High pressure builds in behind the departing front with a fairly decent pressure gradient in place.
A seasonably mild night is underway across the TN Valley, with mostly clear skies and temperatures in the lower to mid 50s. At the surface, high pressure centered over the area should keep winds light, with mostly sunny skies allowing temps to warm into lower 80s. Another mild night is expected tonight as high pressure remains over the area. Dry conditions will persist into Thursday, as weak ridging builds aloft. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees higher on Thursday, as highs warm into the lower to mid 80s.
557 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2020 High pressure and a deep layer of dry air over the area will allow for clear skies and VFR conditions across the terminals through the TAF period. The upper ridge remains stretched from the Pacific NW all the way sewd into FL, and a weak piece of energy is pinched off under the ridge over N TX. High pressure remains in place at the sfc across our area. Upper low over N TX to open up over the next 24 hours or so, as the upper ridge dampens and the main jet to our n becomes more zonal in nature.
458 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2020 Overall upper level ridging continues to give us warmer than normal temperatures as the jet streak to the north will ensure dry weather for the rest of the week. The smoke did keep me from going much higher than the mid 80s for tri-cities today, and if smoke gets to thick aloft, we may not reach the lower 90s in our south, but I think the dryness of the air will compensate in this case. A dry cold front will shift wind to the north/northeast, but should remain light as the surface gradient will not be too compressed.
A broad upper ridge will remain across the central U. Fairly mild lows tonight form the lower to mid 40s. On Thursday, the warm front lift quickly north of the area, as southerly winds increase in the afternoon. Warmer highs again in the mid to upper 80s. A strong thermal ridge will extend over the region, as H85 temperatures range as high as 26C, unusual for this time of year.
With temperatures rising to the low 90s (western OK/TX), and RH values dropping to 15 to 20 percent over tomorrow afternoon (NW OK), elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across portions of NW OK on Thursday.
249 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2020 Skies are sunny across the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures in the lower 80s. High pressure will remain across the southern U. Thursday will see temperatures warm up quickly with highs in the low to mid 80s.
202 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2020 High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern across the Tennessee Valley today. The aformentioned high pressure system will slide to the east by the end of the workweek. Despite the increased cloud cover, Thursday will feel quite warm with afternoon highs in the lower 80s and dew points in the lower 60s.
Thursday looks to be a bit cooler with the wind shift to an easterly component.
240 PM MDT Wed Oct 7 2020 Clear skies persist once again across the CWA and much of the Front Range as a 500-mb trough sits overhead. Currently a stalled cold front has backed up along the Laramie Range resulting in east to northeast winds that have helped clear out some of the smoke earlier in the day.
Earlier tonight, an outflow boundary was near Madison Wi and appeared to be south of a cold front (that was farther north). It looks like there will be gusty winds at times throughout today to 30 mph or higher given momentum transfer on BUFKIT with some of the high resolution models, especially behind the front. Low temperatures should stay well above freezing.
Low pressure will spin up over Alberta with a warm front/lee trof stretching into central Montana by Thursday morning.
235 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2020 High pressure bringing another delightful fall day to the area. Tonight and Thursday: Weather pattern remains the same with high pressure over the area.
Dry conditions and mostly clear skies continue through tomorrow as high pressure dominates the Plains. Mostly clear skies and dry conditions continue through remainder of the week and into the weekend as high pressure remains the the main feature across the Central Plains. Meanwhile, an upper level trough will move through the western United States this weekend.
1212 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2020 Currently have a band of scattered showers draped along a cold front extending from near Green Bay WI to near Minneapolis MN. Otherwise, temperatures as of 2 am were pretty mild for early October with reading ranging from the mid 50s to the lower 60s. High pressure builds in behind the departing front with a fairly decent pressure gradient in place.
Temperatures will still be well above normal, but maybe a couple of degrees cooler than today.
(This evening through Thursday) No major changes in the short term even as a weak upper trough develops over the area.
With high pressure building over the southeast. Overnight lows will be warmer than average for this time of year and in the 50s.
Temperatures on track and still expecting temps in upper 60s across the south, where NBM was a few deg cooler than HRRR guidance, preferred the latter based on recent performance. An upper ridge slides over the Dakotas from tonight into tomorrow, which will bring plentiful sunshine today and clear skies tonight. Winds decrease tonight and temperatures will fall into the 30s and 40s, with areas in the northeast near the freezing mark. Thursday highs will be similar to today, perhaps a deg or two warmer across the south.
156 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2020 Dry cold frontal passage tonight.
1122 AM MDT Wed Oct 7 2020 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the Pac NW building into the Northern Rockies. Short wave embedded in the northwest flow is moving through the Upper Midwest, and driving a backdoor cold front southwest through western SD early this morning. Backdoor front will continue southwest through northeast WY this morning, with easterly boundary layer flow resulting in highs about 10F cooler than yesterday. Front then lifts back northeast through the area as a warm front on Thursday as upper ridge builds in.
342 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2020 Winds will diminish this evening with mostly clear skies and low temperatures tonight in the low to mid 40s.
Otherwise, an inverted mid-level trough across west and north Texas is pulling some mid-level Pacific moisture toward the area but this should not impact an otherwise sunny and warm afternoon across far southeast OK.
But first, high pressure will continue its dominance over the region for a few more days.
Building high pressure centered near Lake Michigan will support dry conditions Thursday. With the forecast area on the eastern flank of high pressure, cold advection in northerly flow should result in seasonal temperature values.
Overnight lows are expected to fall into the low 50s in the heart of the Chicago metro and below 50 elsewhere, possibly dropping into the low 40s in a few outlying locations. With the aforementioned high pressure in place, winds will be calmer than they were on Wednesday and will shift from westerly to easterly during the day, likely inducing a weak lake breeze, as the high pressure continues moving eastward. With cooler temperatures to start the day and eventual onshore flow developing, do expect highs to stay a few degrees lower than Wednesday's highs.
Strong low-level warm air advection and southerly winds will lead to a warmer day on Thursday, as well as higher dew points in the central and eastern parts of the forecast area, which will help limit fire weather concerns in this area.
358 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2020 Temperatures cool this evening as a cold front moves through.
As high pressure moves over the southeast temperatures will rise with afternoon highs in the middle 70s to lower 80s. with the usual few warmer spots reaching the middle 80s. High pressure will keep the wx tranquil through the taf period with light winds, mainly from the SW.
At the surface, a weak pressure trough/wind shift stretches zonally across the forecast area just north of the Kansas River Valley. Winds on either side of the trough are light and from the southwest to the south and from the east/northeast to its north. Baroclinicity increases along the lower tropospheric front this evening and overnight as higher theta-e air presses from the south in response to an approaching northern stream wave currently over the Great Basin. This causes the now warm front to surge northward in Nebraska by Thursday morning. The H925-H700 temperature profiles cool 3-4 C between this afternoon and Thursday afternoon, resulting in highs being 3-5 F cooler than what was reached today.
However, energy coming ashore the Pacific NW should flatten the ridging over the Rockies/Plains by late in the work week. Thursday's highs should be warmer given that a milder airmass is expected to again advect into the region from the west. Will start out with a weak upper trough passage to our north, an associated surface front leading to favorable mixing conditions, and 850mb temperatures that, when mixed down, will produce near record high temperatures.
Northeasterly winds associated with high pressure to our north and southeasterly flow associated with Hurricane Delta well to our southwest will become much more pronounced by Thursday afternoon, allowing for the development of widespread precipitation across portions of our forecast area (especially along and north of the I-10 corridor). Lows tonight ranging from the mid 60s over the far interior counties, to the low and mid 70s southern counties and down along the coast. Highs on Thursday in the low to mid 80s across the region.
Low temperatures tonight will be considerably warmer than the past couple of nights as low level moisture hangs around. Moisture levels deepen and cloud cover should be more extensive so would not be surprised if temps are a degree or so cooler on Thursday.
We will see slightly warmer temps overnight with some increasing clouds. This will mean slightly cooler highs with less sunshine and some showers around and even some isolated thunder possible with peak heating, the SPC has a general risk for a lot of our southern areas for the day 2 which is good through the short term.
201 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2020 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low over northern Hudson Bay with a broad trough extending into the northern Great Lakes. At the surface, northwest winds were increasing between a deepening low exiting from northern Ontario into Quebec and a ridge building into the Plains.
Overnight lows will be a little warmer than today across the eastern half of the CWA. Rainfall amounts through the afternoon and night look to be meager with the highest totals up to about half an inch.
With some locations expected to see highs in the lower 90s this afternoon, the potential exists for a few locations to meet or break their record high temperatures for the day. General westerly flow aloft remains in place across the central Rockies and central High Plains region as the upper ridge moves east and flattens tonight and the flow become more chaotic with several weaker disturbances embedded in the flow. High pressure at the surface slides out of the northern high plains into the eastern plains and Mississippi Valley region between tonight and Thursday while a lee trough deepens from the Canadian border to the Mexican border.
A large area of high pressure at the surface will move from the Dakotas across the area late tonight/early Thursday and then off into the Great Lakes region Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will be just a touch cooler with overnight lows generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s and highs Thursday mainly in the 60s.
Further gusts in the mid 30s (mph) can be expected area-wide through early this evening, with occasional higher gusts in the eastern ridges. Weak cold advection behind the trough will not commence until very late in the day, so with plenty of insolation and warm advection in sfc swly wind, temperature today will rise about 5 degrees above the calculated- normal. Building high pressure centered near Lake Michigan will support dry conditions Thursday. With the forecast area on the eastern flank of high pressure, cold advection in northerly flow should result in seasonal temperature values.
The gusty winds will diminish this evening and they will become light late as high pressure noses into the region. The high will move over the Northland late tonight and pass east during the day Thursday.
344 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2020 Temperatures are expected to remain mild through the forecast with highs topping out in the middle 60s Thursday as high pressure builds through the region provides mostly sunny skies.
302 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2020 A dry cold front still north of the region early this afternoon will wash out over the Ohio Valley tonight. High pressure will build in behind it, laying out a ridge axis across central IN/OH by daybreak Thursday. A small upper level low, currently along the Red River Valley will drift slowly northeast.
High pressure will move across the area in the this evening through the overnight. Highs will be similar to today with mid 60s expected int he valley and slightly cooler in NW MN and warmer in SE ND and the Devils Lake basin. Those SE winds will stay up Thursday night as pressure gradient increases keeping a bit warmer for the overnight with values in the mid to upper 40s.
1217 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2020 Overall upper level ridging continues to give us warmer than normal temperatures as the jet streak to the north will ensure dry weather for the rest of the week. The smoke did keep me from going much higher than the mid 80s for tri-cities today, and if smoke gets to thick aloft, we may not reach the lower 90s in our south, but I think the dryness of the air will compensate in this case. A dry cold front will shift wind to the north/northeast, but should remain light as the surface gradient will not be too compressed.
The latest visible image shows high and mid level clouds moving into portions of the Lake and southeast Klamath County from a weak upper low in central California.
749 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2020 High pressure builds over the area with warming temperatures through Thursday.
302 PM MDT Wed Oct 7 2020 Flattening upper level ridge over the area this afternoon with surface pressure falls west of the divide keeping easterly flow in place.
Clear skies and efficient cooling will allow the valleys to cool off with many of the high valleys dropping into the low to mid 20s.
527 PM MDT Wed Oct 7 2020 Clear skies persist once again across the CWA and much of the Front Range as a 500-mb trough sits overhead. Currently a stalled cold front has backed up along the Laramie Range resulting in east to northeast winds that have helped clear out some of the smoke earlier in the day.
957 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2020 Subsidence associated with a deep mid/upper level high pressure system situated over FL, coupled with drier air advecting in from the southeast, will cause drier conditions this evening for ECFL. Skies will remain partly cloudy across the area this evening, with lows in the low to mid 70s along the interior, and mid 70s along the coast.
717 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2020 Look for clear skies overnight with lows in the lower to middle 40s. Warmer than normal temperatures will continue into the weekend. Deepest mixing appears to be across east-northeast locations where thermal troughing aloft is bit more pronounced. This will set up decent radiational cooling conditions tonight with lows into the low to mid 40s. Broad synoptic scale subsidence/sunny skies continue for Thursday with southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley in upper level inflection zone downstream of central CONUS longwave ridging. Thursday should feature coolest conditions over next several days due to residual low level thermal troughing persisting across the eastern Great Lakes.
/NEW/ /Through Thursday Evening/ Hurricane Delta continues to move around the base of a large mid/upper ridge anchored over the southern CONUS and Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise, ridging aloft will keep temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year, while a broad surface pressure gradient keeps the southeast winds fairly light through the end of the forecast period.
The aformentioned high pressure system will slide to the east by the end of the workweek. Despite the increased cloud cover, Thursday will feel quite warm with afternoon highs in the lower 80s and dew points in the lower 60s.
516 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2020 Benign weather is expected to continue tonight, with mainly mid/high level cloud cover but otherwise much warmer temperatures owing to an influx of of deeper MSTR.
Winds are light and temps have fallen quickly in the cooler areas. /issued 249 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2020/ Skies are sunny across the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures in the lower 80s. High pressure will remain across the southern U. Thursday will see temperatures warm up quickly with highs in the low to mid 80s.
/issued 249 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2020/ Skies are sunny across the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures in the lower 80s. High pressure will remain across the southern U. Thursday will see temperatures warm up quickly with highs in the low to mid 80s.
High pressure bringing another delightful fall day to the area. Tonight and Thursday: Weather pattern remains the same with high pressure over the area.
Models keep upper ridging over the CWA tonight and Thursday, along with weak southwesterly flow aloft and neutral vertical velocity on the QG Omega fields.
A dry cold front still north of the region early this afternoon will wash out over the Ohio Valley tonight. High pressure will build in behind it, laying out a ridge axis across central IN/OH by daybreak Thursday. A small upper level low, currently along the Red River Valley will drift slowly northeast.
955 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2020 Clear skies prevail this evening amidst deep ridging across the region. With that, temperatures are trending slightly cooler than the previous fcst therefore lowered them through the overnight by a degree. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 83 63 77 66 / 0 0 0 30 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 81 61 76 63 / 0 0 0 10 50 Oak Ridge, TN 55 82 59 76 63 / 0 0 0 10 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 79 54 76 60 / 0 0 0 10 40.
High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern across the Tennessee Valley today. The aformentioned high pressure system will slide to the east by the end of the workweek. Despite the increased cloud cover, Thursday will feel quite warm with afternoon highs in the lower 80s and dew points in the lower 60s.
A ridge axis stretching from the eastern United States to well offshore of the Carolina coast is spreading drier lower level air across our area. MFL displayed a good amount of dry air above the surface and some warming between roughly 850 and 700 mb, while KEY had more moisture and was cooler at these levels. Short Term Update - The dry air associated with the ridge will continue to invade westward across the forecast area, bringing with in greater coverage of inhibition. The pressure gradient across Keys waters is gradually relaxing as Hurricane Delta moves further away in the Gulf of Mexico and a ridge to our northeast builds in.
/issued 516 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2020/ Benign weather is expected to continue tonight, with mainly mid/high level cloud cover but otherwise much warmer temperatures owing to an influx of of deeper MSTR.
Daytime heating also returns the wind to NW but with any gusts at 20 knots or less before high pressure becomes centered overhead Thursday night. Temperatures are expected to remain mild through the forecast with highs topping out in the middle 60s Thursday as high pressure builds through the region provides mostly sunny skies.
surface dewpoints have climbed back into the lower 60s over much of the CWA this evening. The combination of cloud cover and warmer dewpoints. The normal cool spots may be able to get into the low 50s as nearly calm to light winds remain common overnight.
257 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2020 High pressure builds over the area with warming temperatures today.
I bumped temps towards the lower end of short range guidance for our traditionally colder spots based on these trends and ideal radiation conditions most of the night. High pressure will move across the area in the this evening through the overnight. Highs will be similar to today with mid 60s expected int he valley and slightly cooler in NW MN and warmer in SE ND and the Devils Lake basin. Those SE winds will stay up Thursday night as pressure gradient increases keeping a bit warmer for the overnight with values in the mid to upper 40s.