Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1152 PM MDT Sat Jul 1 2017 As a high pressure ridge loft shifts east onto the northern and central plains, a Pacific low pressure trough will move across Idaho and western Montana spreading limited moisture and instability into the area with some mountains showers developing. Southwest winds will pick up ahead of the trough with warming. The flow aloft will be more zonal with weak ridges and troughs moving through in increased flow into midweek. High pressure will continue over the area from the middle to the end of the week, bringing above normal temperatures in the upper 80s and 90s, relatively light to breezy wind, along with afternoon to evening thunderstorms, mainly over the higher terrain.
high pressure system this week so confidence is high for a prolonged heatwave. Moisture is forecast to increase in Idaho and western Montana after Monday so there will be shower and thunderstorm chances throughout the week, and north-central Idaho through southwest Montana have the highest likelihood of seeing convective activity.
Otherwise, another hot day is expected with highs expected to be in the middle 90s to near 100 degrees with the higher temperatures expected in the Rio Grande plains. Some of the high-res guidance shows some very isolated and weak showers in the coastal plains this afternoon. For tonight, mostly cloudy skies are once again expected in the early morning with lows in the lower to middle 70s.
Hot and dry weather will dominate the 4th of July Holiday as a large upper-level high pressure system develops over the Intermountain Region. Otherwise, expect hot and dry weather throughout Neveada as a large upper- level high pressure system takes shape over Arizona and New Mexico and expands northward into Utah and Colorado early in the week. Expanding 4 corners high will result in temperatures in the mid to upper 90s with some locations reaching into the lower 100s.
159 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 A weak cold front will move across the region late tonight then stall along the coast Sunday into Monday. Weak wave of low pressure progged along the boundary across eastern NC Sunday morning so kept low chc shwrs across sern zones.
SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): Low to mid level moisture will continue to remain limited across the CWA today through Monday with a 700mb ridge across the Gulf of Mexico keeping deeper moisture well to the south across the Bay of Campeche.
A weak low pressure system will continue to cause some gusty southerly winds across the Southern Great Basin and Mojave Desert today.
159 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 A weak cold front will move east of the area this evening. High pressure will briefly build over the region Sunday before another weak cold front drops across Lake Erie Sunday night. I wonder if the high level of ground saturation is feeding the system? In any case, I probably over forecast the threat for the remainder of the night but forecast a swath of 20-30 pop from northwest Ohio to northeast Ohio. Highs near guidance from the upper 70s NW PA to about 83 or so in the warmer spots of northern OH.
Yesterday's weak upper trough has pushed east into the Great Basin, with high pressure over the eastern Pacific building into the region and bringing clear skies. Temperatures across the region are generally running a couple of degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Dry weather is expected today across the region and should continue through at least midweek under the influence of high pressure. The overall pattern will see some amplification over the next few days, as high pressure strengthens over the Great Basin, and an upper trough deepens over the northeast Pacific.
451 AM MDT Sun Jul 2 2017 Water vapor shows upper ridge extending from the nrn Rockies into the nrn plains, with disturbed sw flow extending newd from the Great Basin. Upper ridge will flatten later today as short wave ejects out of the Great Basin and into ern WY by later afternoon. After Monday, the main wx concern will be the building heat as upper ridge amplifies across the wrn conus.
The persistent ridge that has been in place over the region will be shifting eastward on Sunday as a Pacific wave pushes across the Great Basin. Could see a few cells over the lower elevations of the Four Corners from Cortez east to Pagosa Springs with strong outflow winds a concern, especially with the Lightner Creek Wildfire west of Durango. Brief period of northwest flow will be in place Monday behind the exiting Pacific wave with high pressure re-building over the western states. Expect a few afternoon/evening storms over the higher terrain, otherwise conditions will remain dry. The ridge strengthens and moves directly overhead by midweek with a slow but steady increase in moisture getting entrained into the ridge. With the ridge parked overhead, wind fields will be relaxed and more terrain driven for most of the week.
420 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 Weak high pressure in control today and tonight.
236 AM MDT Sun Jul 2 2017 Water vapor shows upper ridge extending from the nrn Rockies into the nrn plains, with disturbed sw flow extending newd from the Great Basin. Upper ridge will flatten later today as short wave ejects out of the Great Basin and into ern WY by later afternoon. After Monday, the main wx concern will be the building heat as upper ridge amplifies across the wrn conus.
329 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017 A weak bubble of high pressure will bring mostly sunny and warm conditions to central Illinois today. Based on forecast soundings showing a well-mixed boundary layer up to about 6500-7000ft, afternoon high temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday. Meanwhile further northwest, an approaching cold front will interact with a narrow instability axis to trigger scattered strong thunderstorms across far northern Illinois into central Iowa by late afternoon into early evening.
421 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017 Upper ridging making it's presence known with slightly above normal temperatures and little if any rainfall through the 4th of July holiday.
818 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Aviation High pressure will settle over the Great Lakes during the next few days.
1253 AM EDT Wed Jun 7 2017 A cold front will sag over far south Georgia today while a series of weak low pressure systems move off the coast through tonight.
A deep mid and upper level trough on the Gulf coast. with an area of low pressure near the MS/AL coast. Atlantic high pressure ridges west across Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula. A frontal system with an area of low pressure to the north and high pressure over and south of Cuba will maintain robust winds on the Gulf with a small craft advisory through Wed.
Lingering troughiness in combination with the daytime heating still expected to result in isolated showers across northeast lower through early evening. High pressure builds in tonight into Wednesday yielding light winds and mostly clear skies. Highs Wednesday in the lower and middle 70s.
Scattered convection continues to develop in southwestern and south central Nebraska and adjacent areas of Kansas ahead of a weak cold front and in an area of modest and shallow mid-level isentropic ascent. In the eastern counties, dry air advection is the rule behind an upper low in the Great Lakes and northeast low level wind off modified high pressure. Advection of lower theta air will continue to stabilize conditions and allow for cooler temps tonight and Wednesday. Have sided on the slightly warmer side of temps based on persistence.
High pressure across the western Great Lakes/Corn Belt providing a spectacular early June day to the area. 3 pm temperatures in the dvn cwa were in the mid 70s to the lower 80s, along with a rather light northeast wind and noticeably low humidity. Forecast focus is high pressure in control. Lows tonight will dip into the lower 50s at most locations, perhaps upper 40s in far nw IL.
703 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 cold front making progress eastward and shows up nicely on radar due to the cu field with it, extending from east of Hallock to Crookston to just west of Fargo to Forman. Forcing along the front is quite weak with the main upper level support a bit west of the actual cold front, despite 1500 j/kg sfc based CAPE. Cooler daytime temps Wednesday with 70s for highs. Short wave will move east of the region Wed night as a long wave ridge sets up over the northern Rockies. A little warmer Fri as ridge edges closer and winds switch to the south, with dry conditions prevailing and highs in the 80s. Nevertheless, the better potential for sfc based convection would be during the day on Sat as a cold front moves through the area.
654 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Deep, moist convection is concentrated just east of the area in closer proximity to the surface cold front extending from Grand Forks to Aberdeen at 23 UTC.
Increasing Subsidence and high pressure building south into Texas in wake of the low pressure area over NC Gulf of Mexico continues to lower the mean RH through the entire atmospheric column. /issued 248 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Quite weather is expected through the short term period as the mid level low trough progresses east across the Gulf. Meanwhile, amplified ridging will continue over the Western Conus. Otherwise, temps are still running warmer than normal and have kept the trend going of keeping values near or higher than guidance. High pressure dominating the region will keep subsidence and generally rain-free weather in place.
High pressure and the associated dry airmass will continue to build into the area, providing quiet weather, with somewhat cooler and less humid conditions than were seen last night. Continued north to northeast flow due to high pressure to the north will bring relatively cool and dry air through central and southeast IL over the upcoming day. Expecting a slight cooling for Wednesday compared with today, as morning lows reach the low to mid 50s, and highs reach the mid to upper 70s.
1151 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Sfc cold front Roseau to Wahpeton late this evening. Water vapor shows the upper low moving to near Bottineau. Cooler daytime temps Wednesday with 70s for highs. Short wave will move east of the region Wed night as a long wave ridge sets up over the northern Rockies. A little warmer Fri as ridge edges closer and winds switch to the south, with dry conditions prevailing and highs in the 80s. Nevertheless, the better potential for sfc based convection would be during the day on Sat as a cold front moves through the area. Meanwhile an area of lower VFR clouds will move east behind the upper low into the nrn RRV Wednesday.
940 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Two upper lows, one over the AL/MS Gulf Coast and one in New York, continue to impact the local weather this evening. Mid to high level clouds are still streaming north ahead of the southern low while a cold front attached to the one in the northeast, moves south through the area. The lower dewpoints are slowly making their way down here with S. Middle TN in the lower 60s but Huntsville and areas south are still in the upper 60s/lower 70s. We should wake up to a cooler morning and sunny skies tomorrow.
947 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Upper level low pressure will develop over the upper Ohio Valley region over the next few days, with only slight chances of showers at times through the rest of the week.
Doubt storms will reach the Highway 62 corridor (from Hollis to Altus to Lawton) or points south as well as locations east of I-35 where cooler and drier air will move in from the northeast with the passage of a weak back door cold front.
/Issued 341 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017/ Upper trough axis has finally moved east of the area, now affecting the lower MS valley. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are forming this afternoon across south central KS on the periphery of the ridge axis. Northeast winds will continue to bring cooler and drier air into the region tonight, with overnight lows dropping into the mid 50s across NW Arkansas to lower 60s across eastern Oklahoma.
1007 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017 The airmass across the region will remain moist a cold front pushes through the southern Midlands and CSRA.
Earlier cells have entirely vanished from the radar, and now we are seeing skies finally clear out from north to south as drier, cooler air works its way into Middle Tennessee.
654 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Continued north to northeast flow due to high pressure to the north will bring relatively cool and dry air through central and southeast IL over the upcoming day. Expecting a slight cooling for Wednesday compared with today, as morning lows reach the low to mid 50s, and highs reach the mid to upper 70s.
/issued 258 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017/ Scattered to numerous shwrs/tstms continue to pivot around the back side of the upper low centered over ern LA/wrn MS. Latest HRRR, as well as the mainstream model output show convection dying out shortly after sunset, as the upper low continues to drift ewd and we lose daytime heating. Region to see some drier weather for the next several days, as nw flow aloft and high pressure at the sfc dominates the pattern. Have held close to blended guidance for temps during this timeframe, but we could be warmer if the soils dry out quickly.
524 PM MDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Upper level analysis has a positively tilted upper ridge extending from Ontario to the Four Corners region with an upper low sliding across southern Saskatchewan. At the surface, a frontal boundary extends through eastern South Dakota with high pressure building over Montana, Wyoming, and the western Dakotas. Upper ridge persists over the area with Canadian upper low shifting into eastern ND. This moisture combined with daytime heating, may allow an isolated shower or storm to form over the higher terrain of northeastern Wyoming and the Hills.
It is going to take thru midnight to get most of the storms out of the region and the low further to our east. The storms are wrapping around the western side of the same low pressure area that has brought several days of very wet weather. Convection is forecast to wane this evening with the loss of diurnal heating and as the low continues its slow eastward retreat, a cold front will swing through the area overnight tonight.
731 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Cool and showery weather under an upper level low through much of the week. High pressure and warming conditions for this weekend. Some cumulus hanging in there and will continue to rotate in tonight with embedded waves within the closed upper low. Upper level low/trough continues to sag south this afternoon. Overnight will be quite cool with weak northerly flow and temperatures dropping into the low 50s and cooler in the mountains. Upper level low pushes overhead by tomorrow afternoon.
/issued 248 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Quite weather is expected through the short term period as the mid level low trough progresses east across the Gulf. Meanwhile, amplified ridging will continue over the Western Conus. Otherwise, temps are still running warmer than normal and have kept the trend going of keeping values near or higher than guidance. High pressure dominating the region will keep subsidence and generally rain-free weather in place.
/issued 350 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017/ (Tonight and Wednesday) Despite the northeast surface winds, temperatures have climbed nicely across West Central Texas this afternoon with readings from the mid 80s into the lower 90s.
With the upper level low pushing east of the taf sites, dry air will filter in on the back side and ceilings will erode from west to east through 15z this morning.
Dry and cooler weather is expected for the rest of tonight. /ISSUED 334 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017/ Showers and a few thunderstorms wrapping around the back side of the upper trough gracing eastern counties of SETX to the coast and into the nearshore waters. Skies should clear out this evening with dry and cooler weather to follow.
807 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Upper level low pressure will develop over the upper Ohio Valley region over the next few days, with only slight chances of showers at times through the rest of the week.
Outside of convection, winds will trend east/NE behind a combined cold front and outflow boundary. Noticeably cooler/milder on Wednesday, as 850 mb temperatures drop back to the mid teens C.
Deep, moist convection is concentrated just east of the area in closer proximity to the surface cold front extending from Grand Forks to Aberdeen at 23 UTC.
Will linger some small pops over central KS late tonight but will keep the higher chances over SW portions of forecast area. A weak mid level trough will be moving through along and west of I-135 this afternoon.
1237 AM EDT Wed Jun 7 2017 Aviation High pressure will settle over the Great Lakes during the next few days.
/00Z Update/ Upper level low/trof has moved east of the area with NW flow now in place. Clouds are showing a little more vertical development across the Highway 77 corridor and with continued daytime heating, we could see an isolated shower or thunderstorm develop through the afternoon and early evening hours. A dry forecast is in store on Wednesday as continued northerly flow in the low-levels helps to reduce the amount of low-level moisture across the region.
826 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Earlier cells have entirely vanished from the radar, and now we are seeing skies finally clear out from north to south as drier, cooler air works its way into Middle Tennessee.
as upper low over nrn Gulf of Mex approaches. A weak low pressure center will move slowly eastward along the Florida panhandle coast later tonight and Wednesday. Meanwhile, a cold front pushing southward into the southeastern states will approach the Georgia coastal waters later tonight, and will push slowly southward into the northeast Florida waters on Wednesday night.
An upper level trough will approach tonight and Wednesday for slightly cooler temperatures and an increase in clouds.
The invasion of this high level cloudiness should largely mitigate any significant restrictions (less than 6 SM) to surface visibility.
/22/ Tonight through Wednesday: The upper-level low pressure system which has brought several days of rainfall to our region is now moving southeast of our forecast area.
A warm dry southwesterly flow will develop over the area tonight and increase into the weekend ahead of a cold upper low from the Pacific.
628 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 A weak mid level trough will be moving through along and west of I-135 this afternoon.
Two upper lows, one over the AL/MS Gulf Coast and one in New York, continue to impact the local weather this evening. Mid to high level clouds are still streaming north ahead of the southern low while a cold front attached to the one in the northeast, moves south through the area. The lower dewpoints are slowly making their way down here with S. Middle TN in the lower 60s but Huntsville and areas south are still in the upper 60s/lower 70s. We should wake up to a cooler morning and sunny skies tomorrow.
The 00z sounding at Tampa showed some drier air had worked into the low/mid levels. Water vapor imagery showed this drier air with a dry slot wrapping around mid/upper level low that was along the north Gulf coast. Weakening upper troughing across the southeast U. Will continue the high PoPs with 80pct areawide.
646 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 00 UTC TAF Cycle VFR will prevail through the entire TAF cycle as mid-level high pressure and north winds should yield little to no major aviation weather concerns.
Higher pressure aloft will provide one more day of warmer than average temperatures and sunshine Wednesday.
730 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Dry weather and cool temperatures are on the docket over the next few days as high pressure slides south out of the Upper Great Lakes.
1022 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Cool and showery weather under an upper level low through much of the week. High pressure and warming conditions for this weekend. Some cumulus hanging in there and will continue to rotate in tonight with embedded waves within the closed upper low. Upper level low/trough continues to sag south this afternoon. Overnight will be quite cool with weak northerly flow and temperatures dropping into the low 50s and cooler in the mountains. Upper level low pushes overhead by tomorrow afternoon.
/ISSUED 334 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017/ Showers and a few thunderstorms wrapping around the back side of the upper trough gracing eastern counties of SETX to the coast and into the nearshore waters. Skies should clear out this evening with dry and cooler weather to follow.
BMickelson Previous short term discussion: High pressure pushing into northern Montana with clear skies and dry conditions. Exiting upper trof has depressed temperatures and resulted in some gusty winds today, but expect winds to diminish with sunset. Upper ridge begins building into the state as the trof exits. This should bring some warmer temperatures for Wednesday.
Cooler with a chance of showers for the latter half of the week. Most areas are trending cooler this evening. The closed low pressure area continues it's slow migration towards the west coast along with the start of at least a couple of days of synoptic cooling.
930 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017 High clouds associated with a passing upper-level trough will continue to thin out as they spread further to the south and east overnight. The cooler air mass in place will also result in some very comfortable low temperatures in the lower to upper 50s by daybreak Wednesday. Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 82 59 78 / 10 0 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 77 58 74 / 10 10 10 40 Oak Ridge, TN 58 78 57 77 / 10 0 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 75 55 73 / 10 20 20 50.
South to southwest breezes are blowing between 15 and 20 knots, with higher wind speeds west of the Seven Mile Bridge. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the lower Straits of Florida, Hawk Channel west of the Seven Mile Bridge, and the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico. An area of low pressure will move across the northern Gulf of Mexico overnight, and over northern Florida on Wednesday.
This indicates that the upper level low has finally pushed east of the sounding site. Freezing levels and wet bulb zero heights remain high at around 14k feet indicating there is not much of a cold pool associated with this upper level trough.
650 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017 At 2 PM, a short wave trough moving through northwest Wisconsin was producing scattered showers and storms across central and northern Wisconsin. Dew points will be in the mid and upper 50s north of the dry line and in the lower and mid 60s south of it. As temperatures climb into the lower to mid 80s this afternoon, the 0-1 km mean layer CAPES will climb into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range south of the Interstate 94. This CAPE will be building ahead of an approaching short wave trough (currently located over western Minnesota). For Saturday afternoon and night, a stronger short wave and surface cold front will be moving through the region. In the wake of this system, a much cooler air mass will move into the region.
727 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2017 A warm front will approach from the west tonight and will slowly push east of the region Saturday through Saturday night.
There is the possibilty that heat advisory for Sat could be upgraded to warning as a few places today got a little warmer than forecast. Sat 85h temps will be as much as 1C warmer and 17C-18C at 7h! Today's high temp at MAF was about 15F over the 34C 85h temp, 111 is possible tmw?.
1027 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2017 Currently - A weak ridge axis extends across South Florida and the Keys. Weak lower level ridging extends across the Keys. Short Term Update - Weak flow will prevail through the overnight as the weak ridge axis remains nearby. On this date in Florida Keys weather history, in 1955, the low temperature in Key West was 69 degrees.
Meanwhile, will also add mention of patchy fog overnight and make some adjustments to the low temperatures. Some uncertainty remains in how an upstream Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) over Missouri will evolve as it approaches the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys.