Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper level trough exits the eastern U. This will set the stage for idealized radiational cooling tonight, with temperatures dropping into the lower and middle 30's across the northern half of the CWA, elsewhere towards the coast expect upper 30's and lower 40's.
225 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2020 (Issued 225 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2020) Tonight through Tuesday night: Winds will eventually taper off late this afternoon and evening and become light as a sfc pressure ridge sharpens over the northern Great Lakes. Skies should remain mostly clear, save for a few passing high clouds, and overnight lows will drop into the low 30s. The Great Lakes high pressure will slide eastward through tomorrow, allowing for a slightly steeper pressure gradient to build back into the area as a low pressure system meanders eastward over south central Canada. The winds will lead to warm air advection and temperatures will warm into the low 60s tomorrow afternoon.
With temperatures aloft warming, dewpoints a little higher later tonight, and some cirrus moving into place, expect temperatures to be a few degrees warmer than this morning and have lows in the lower to middle 30s. An upper ridge will build over the area Tuesday and Tuesday night. These conditions should allow for mostly sunny skies on Tuesday and highs climbing into the lower 60s despite a cold start to the day.
High pressure was centered over southern Arkansas at this time. Winds will start to become more southerly on Tuesday which will help bring warmer air into the Mid-South.
Cold high pressure at the surface will continue to settle into the region. This, along with the resulting northeast winds, will provide the region with quiet weather and noticeably cooler drier conditions today. Overnight tonight, with the center of the high pressure over our region, conditions will be prime for radiational cooling. While most locations will drop to just the mid-30s, it's entirely possible that some isolated spots may drop to freezing in the northern part of our CWA. /10/ The coldest morning of the week looks to be Tuesday morning, where overnight lows will drop to the lower to mid 30s.
219 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2020 A strong cold front pushed through overnight and is currently over the Florida Keys. Behind it strong high pressure and strong northerly winds is giving us a nice and beautiful fall day which I think we all deserve after a very hot October.
/Tonight through Tomorrow Night/ Temperatures across the area this afternoon are ranging from the lower 60s to upper 60s, with the cooler temperatures to the north and the warmer across portions of deep east Texas. The cooler air mass seen over the previous few days will slowly push out of the area on Tuesday. As a result, warmer temperatures are expected with afternoon highs ranging from the lower to mid 70s across the area. Overnight lows Tuesday night will range from the lower to mid 40s.
/NEW/ /Through Tomorrow/ Fairly tranquil weather conditions are expected through tomorrow as an upper ridge traverses across the state from west to east. /Issued 157 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2020/ /Tuesday through the Weekend/ A ridge of high pressure centered along the Gulf Coast will keep temperatures on the cool side of normal with low humidity through Tuesday. The high center should then slide east and allow both temperatures and humidity to climb in the middle to late parts of the week. The increased moisture should be confined to the lowest levels of the atmosphere, and therefore should have little impact outside of some patchy morning stratus and an afternoon cumulus field.
The core of the upper level low, although weakening as it moves across Utah tomorrow, will bring thermal dynamics with it as the lapse rate between 500 and 700mb will increase to over 20 degrees C.
High pressure will result in clear skies, light winds, and above-normal temperatures today.
Low temperatures tonight will be the coolest of the season so far, dropping into the mid/upper 30s across SE Alabama/SW Georgia and the low 40s across the FL Panhandle and Big Bend. Very light NNE winds are expected tomorrow, pretty much halting the advancement of cooler air into the region and allowing high temperatures tomorrow to warm into the mid 60s to low 70s.
CMiller (Issued 315 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2020) Today through Tuesday: Mostly quiet day expected as high pressure pushes south of the region with a low pressure system across central Canada. However winds will be primarily from the southwest given the high pressure to the south so for the most this should be expected to bring warmer conditions back to the region with highs expected to reach the upper 40s to low 50s. This will start the trend of warmer temperatures with Tuesday featuring primarily southwest winds with broad low pressure across western Canada and broad high pressure in the southeast US. Highs Tuesday should reach the low to mid 60s as temps should overachieve with respect to models.
1119 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2020 (Today and tonight) We will continue the Frost Advisory for south-central and southeast counties of our CWA through 9 AM, generally the area where we have not had widespread freezing temperatures yet. A light freeze may also occur in the low lying spots within the advisory. Southerly flow will increase this afternoon as low level ridge continues its progression to our southeast.
1146 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2020 High pressure over Arkansas will ridge into TX for the next 24 hours bringing generally clear skies and dry conditions. No major issues are expected the next few days as the cool/dry air mass in the wake of the cold front settles over SE TX. Light north and northeast winds will prevail with high temperatures in the low to mid 70s this afternoon. With a more E/SE low-level flow develop- ing tomorrow, highs should be a bit warmer, mainly in the mid 70s. Continued cool/clear tonight with lows ranging from the low to mid 40s inland to the mid and upper 50s at the immediate coast.
Tonight and Tuesday Quiet conditions with little clouds are anticipated through this forecast period as dry air continues to filter into the area from an upper-level ridge building over the Northern Plains. Warmer air is expected to lift into the region for Tuesday.
For 18Z Aviation discussion below Early this morning regional satellite imagery indicated broad northwest flow aloft across the Upper Midwest, with a deep trough over the east coast and an upper ridge centered across the Rockies and into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, an area of high pressure was centered across the mid section of the nation, with a broad area of south/southwest winds across the Upper Midwest.
mid morning temps had warmed into the low/mid 50s for most locations underneath clear skies. These conditions will aid in afternoon temperatures warming into the lower 60s for far Northwest Arkansas to the upper 60s/near 70 degrees along and west of Highway 75 in Northeast Oklahoma.
215 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2020 The CWA currently sits under the eastern side of an upper ridge with high pressure at the surface. Light wind will remain from the southwest as the center of high pressure stays south of the Lower Ohio Valley. This will keep tonight's low temperatures a little warmer than this morning's 20s with temperatures staying in the 30s. A cold front may approach from the northwest by next Monday, but it will be weakening as it does so, will likely not have much moisture associated with it, and may not arrive until just after this forecast period.
By Sat- Mon, expect highs above average, as a strong ridge of high pressure begins to develop. Northwest flow aloft tonight with upper trough axis off the eastern seaboard. There will be a weak short wave trough moving through around dawn in northwest flow with perhaps some thin cirrus, but strong radiational cooling conditions expected with near calm winds. Drainage southwest wind at CAE suggests cooler temps.
Ridging continues today with mild temps and light winds. Ridge axis begins to shift late tonight into tomorrow morning, allowing for increasing mid to high level moisture. A weak trough will pass overhead tomorrow afternoon, bringing a more westerly flow.
An upper level ridge has settled over West Texas bringing subsidence and light winds. Tomorrows high temps will rise above normal as we stay under the upper level ridge with warm southerly return flow.
The chilly high pressure system that brought several hours of sub- freezing temperatures to much of the forecast area this morning will gradually shift east towards the East Coast during the first part of the work week. After another unseasonably chilly day today, with highs only in the lower half of the 50s, readings should make it back up into the 60s on Tuesday.
220 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2020 18Z surface data has high pressure from the Ohio Valley into the lower Mississippi Valley with a weak boundary from the eastern Dakotas into New Mexico. On Tuesday dry and much warmer conditions will be seen across the area. As mentioned earlier, this may be too low and we could see temps even warmer than what are forecast. Eventually a deep upper level low will dig into the western US. After this, the low is expected to move into the Plains and will continue to bring chances for rain through midweek. VFR conditions will be seen through 00z/04 with high pressure over the Ohio Valley and a low in the Plains.
/issued 349 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2020/ Continental high pressure continues to build into the Lower Mississippi River Valley with the strongest cold air advection taking place at this time.
A few high level clouds are moving across the area with high temperatures reaching the low to mid 70s as of 2 PM. This trend could help overnight lows to be a degree or two warmer than this morning. Therefore, expect lows in the lower 40s across the Hill Country with mid to upper 40s elsewhere. The return of southerly flow across South Central Texas on Tuesday means warmer temperatures ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s during the afternoon period.
1145 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2020 After the active weekend, we are about to enter a period of much quieter weather, with a broad upper level ridge building over the central CONUS through at least the first part of the work week. This will allow warmer temperatures to surge into the area on general west-southwest flow with sunshine.
1026 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2020 An upper-level trough will continue to progress eastward into the Northeast today with subsidence via mid-level height rises across the Midwest. At low levels, west-southwesterly flow will begin to advect warmer air into the region with 850-hPa temps rising to around 6. On Tuesday, low- level WAA will continue as an upper-level ridge shifts into the central U.
An upper level short wave ridge axis will move closer to the area tonight and then shift off to the east on Tuesday. Thicknesses will climb on Tuesday combining with the downsloping winds to contribute to warmer temperatures.
1215 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2020 Cold and dry high pressure will control the weather through midweek. While one or two isolated locations may have dropped below freezing, do not think that conditions were widespread enough to eliminate any counties from the freeze program. Still, highs will only reach the low to mid 50s. Although clear skies and relatively calm winds will develop Tuesday night and support excellent radiational cooling, dewpoint temperatures will increase throughout the day Tuesday and limit the extent of the cooling to the upper 30s across the Piedmont to the low 40s elsewhere.
1108 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2020 Currently - a strong cold front is in the process of pushing across the region this morning. Meanwhile dewpoints are still hanging in the lower 70s at this time. Cold front will continue to slide southward through the day. With that being said, this front is being pushed by a rather strong high pressure that originated from Canada and is in the process of becoming anchored in the southeast U.
Current upper level pattern has ridging in the western CONUS and a long wave trough in the east coast of CONUS. High pressure exist over over Texas, New Mexico and northern Mexico. An area of split flow low pressure exist over the south-central coast of California. At the surface, a trough exist with low pressure in eastern to southeastern Colorado. The orientation of the trough is so that southwest winds around 15 to 20 mph exist over most of the FA area today. Overnight, temperatures look to be around the low 40s but if the winds drop off more than expected, temperatures could easily drop a couple of more degrees towards dawn on Tuesday. Temperatures in the afternoon are expected to be a few degrees warmer though. This will allow overnight temperatures to be a few degrees warmer than what is expected tonight.
158 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2020 An upper level ridge over the region will give way to the cut-off upper level low over SoCal that will weaken to an open wave and cross eastern UT and western CO Tuesday and Tuesday night. There are currently scattered thunderstorms over NW AZ to eastern NV on the leading edge of this upper level low and supported by a modest plume of precipitable water from the eastern Pacific. As the low pressure trough moves east, the precipitable water over our area will increase, but not to the levels farther southwest today. It will be another mild day Tuesday with temperatures nearly the same or a degree or two warmer than today.
/19/ Cold high pressure at the surface will continue to settle into the region. This, along with the resulting northeast winds, will provide the region with quiet weather and noticeably cooler drier conditions today. Overnight tonight, with the center of the high pressure over our region, conditions will be prime for radiational cooling. While most locations will drop to just the mid-30s, it's entirely possible that some isolated spots may drop to freezing in the northern part of our CWA. /10/ The coldest morning of the week looks to be Tuesday morning, where overnight lows will drop to the lower to mid 30s.
1049 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2020 As of 1630z, temperatures across the area are ranging from the lower to upper 50s across the area, which is where they were expected to be this morning. SFC winds are light NE or calm and will be NE today 4-8KTS as high pressure settles into the four state area. Overnight the airmass will begin to move E of the MS river and after one more below average start, a warmer trend will return with flow back off the Gulf. Air temps are running in the upper 30s and low 40s north and some warmer mid 40s mixed south. The cold high pressure air mass is 1034mb over AR and still sinking into the midSouth.
133 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2020 Dry and mild conditions highlight the short term period as the upper ridge really takes hold over the Rockie Mountains and midwest region.
Tomorrow will see temps even warmer as 925mb temps rise a few degrees. A run in the southern valley at 70 degrees is possible with temperatures in the northern valley topping out in the low 60s. This warm and dry period is being caused by broad western conus ridging spreading across the northern plains. Even as the ridge flattens westerly flow aloft and dry airmass will persist with minimal impacts to the area through the work week. The upper level pattern begins with broad ridging over southern Canada and does become more zonal over the northern tier Tuesday night, however associated waves all remain dry. Weekday maximums this week will be in the mid- to upper 60s! A southwest flow pattern develops aloft for the weekend, with a deep closed low tracking across southern Canada/northern CONUS.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 36 63 41 69 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 34 60 39 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 32 61 38 67 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 30 57 36 67 39 / 0 0 0 0 0.
/ISSUED 518 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2020/ All sites VFR through the TAF period as the area is under high pressure. Quiet weather in the short term as the area is under high pressure at the surface. Drier and slightly cooler air has filtered in behind yesterday's front and will lead to another pleasant afternoon. This will give us overnight lows a few degrees warmer than this morning, but still in the 40s.
Light and variable winds should allow for good radiational cooling tonight, so temperatures were kept on the lower side of guidance. Even still, most locations will stay well above freezing. Expect this warming trend to continue through the middle of the week as the ridge axis and associated warmth moves more overhead.
1007 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2020 After the active weekend, we are about to enter a period of much quieter weather, with a broad upper level ridge building over the central CONUS through at least the first part of the work week. This will allow warmer temperatures to surge into the area on general west-southwest flow with sunshine.
306 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2020 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Diminishing winds this evening - Warmer temperatures forecasted going into the weekend - Diminishing winds this evening Mixing heights are up around 6k ft. - Warmer temperatures forecasted going into the weekend We have raised the temperatures a few degrees each day.
1228 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2020 High pressure in the Upper Midwest will settle over the Gulf states later today. Flow will turn to the southwest on Tuesday, permitting warmer temperatures to return to the region.
300 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2020 Tonight and Tuesday: Cold high pressure at the surface will settle over the region tonight. With lows falling into the low and middle 30s, frost will be possible across a good portion of the CWA early Tuesday morning. This will especially be the case over the Golden Triangle area and portions of North Central Mississippi, where lows will be near freezing for a couple of hours around day break Tuesday. Quiet and pleasant conditions will persist, with temperatures a little warmer than those observed on Monday.
The area is underneath the inflection of a long wave ridge to the west and a deep trough to the east. A slow moving mean ridge of high pressure aloft will translate over the nations midsection this week allowing the unseasonably warm weather to persist.
700 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2020 High pressure will persist across the region through the week. A weak coastal trough will develop nearby late week. It's still possible that a few spots touch the freezing mark but don't think it's likely enough to warrant a Freeze Warning.
758 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2020 High pressure will continue across the CWA overnight. /Issued 250 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2020/ Dry and sunny conditions are expected through the short term as high pressure dominates the area. Clear skies overnight will allow northeast Georgia to cool down into the low 30s. A few counties in northwest Georgia will near freezing.
Here in the Ohio Valley, high pressure is keeping the weather cool and quiet. The CWA currently sits under the eastern side of an upper ridge with high pressure at the surface. Light wind will remain from the southwest as the center of high pressure stays south of the Lower Ohio Valley. This will keep tonight's low temperatures a little warmer than this morning's 20s with temperatures staying in the 30s. A cold front may approach from the northwest by next Monday, but it will be weakening as it does so, will likely not have much moisture associated with it, and may not arrive until just after this forecast period.
637 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2020 Aviation - Diminishing winds this evening - Warmer temperatures forecasted going into the weekend - Diminishing winds this evening Mixing heights are up around 6k ft. - Warmer temperatures forecasted going into the weekend We have raised the temperatures a few degrees each day.
An upper level trough exits the eastern U. High temperatures managed to break the lower 60's across northern counties, and middle to near upper 60's elsewhere. This will set the stage for idealized radiational cooling tonight, with temperatures dropping into the lower and middle 30's across the northern half of the CWA, while elsewhere towards the coast expect upper 30's and lower 40's.
The CWA currently sits under the eastern side of an upper ridge with high pressure at the surface. Light wind will remain from the southwest as the center of high pressure stays south of the Lower Ohio Valley. This will keep tonight's low temperatures a little warmer than this morning's 20s with temperatures staying in the 30s. A cold front may approach from the northwest by next Monday, but it will be weakening as it does so, will likely not have much moisture associated with it, and may not arrive until just after this forecast period.
515 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2020 An examination of geostationary satellite animations this afternoon reveals a very autumn-looking scene, with a hurricane over the western Caribbean Sea, a lengthy cold front extending across the western North Atlantic, and a large, cloud-free region over the southeastern quarter of the continental United States associated with a sprawling continental polar air mass. The cold front passed through the Florida Keys earlier this morning, and northeast breezes have freshened gradually all day.
Expect clear skies tonight with lows in the lower to middle 30s. /27/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Tuesday: Cold high pressure at the surface will settle over the region tonight. With lows falling into the low and middle 30s, frost will be possible across a good portion of the CWA early Tuesday morning. This will especially be the case over the Golden Triangle area and portions of North Central Mississippi, where lows will be near freezing for a couple of hours around day break Tuesday. Quiet and pleasant conditions will persist, with temperatures a little warmer than those observed on Monday.
18Z surface data has high pressure from the Ohio Valley into the lower Mississippi Valley with a weak boundary from the eastern Dakotas into New Mexico. On Tuesday dry and much warmer conditions will be seen across the area. As mentioned earlier, this may be too low and we could see temps even warmer than what are forecast. Eventually a deep upper level low will dig into the western US. After this, the low is expected to move into the Plains and will continue to bring chances for rain through midweek.
A pattern change to much cooler weather is forecast to occur by week's end, with a chance of rain and snow showers over the Sierra Nevada. A weak upper low is overhead today and has been generating some cloud cover for us in the valley as well as over the Sierra Nevada. However, afternoon high temperatures still look to be quite warm today, with a few areas expected to be in the low 80s (about 10 degrees above average).
Temperatures on Tuesday will likely be a few degrees warmer than today, for another round of near record or record highs.
/issued 243 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2020/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday night): 500mb ridge across south Texas tonight will move little Tuesday through Tues night. high pressure across the southeast United States will gradually shift eastward Tuesday into Tues night allowing an onshore flow to return along the lower Texas coast Tues afternoon. Lows will be cooler tonight than Tues night as the winds veer to the east Tuesday and southeast Tues night.
High pressure and a lack of moisture will lead to abundant sunshine, further increasing temperatures.
With dewpoints currently in the low/mid 30s and clear sky, I don't see any reason why temperatures won't approach freezing again across portions of west TN and north MS. High pressure was centered over southern Arkansas at this time. Winds will start to become more southerly on Tuesday which will help bring warmer air into the Mid-South.
515 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2020 Dry and mild conditions highlight the short term period as the upper ridge really takes hold over the Rockie Mountains and midwest region.
On Tue, conditions will be breezy again along the coast as the high pressure continues to move towards the southeast U. High pressure over the eastern US will consolidate and strengthen off the New England coast mid week.
Todays high / low spread is nearly 10 degrees cooler than the daily norm. We will see a warming trend this week, however even tomorrows high / low spread is forecast to be cooler than the norm.