Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Snow showers will see an uptick in coverage and intensity as later this afternoon and tonight as the trough approaches and BL extends further into the DGZ. On average, by tomorrow morning lower elevations should see about one inch while the ridges get another 2 to 3. In the wake of the exiting trough, heights will briefly rise Monday, and most of the snow shower activity should largely be confined to the I-80 corridor and ridges.
233 PM EST Sun Jan 17 2021 Upper trough digs into the area tonight with snow showers expected into early Monday.
1136 AM CST Sun Jan 17 2021 Cold front is pushing thru cntrl la attm.
A cold front, was working its way across mainly eastern portions of the area, from near Walla Walla to points east.
At the surface an area of high pressure remains located across the northern Gulf of Mexico with sw to w low level flow. Areas mainly above 3500 feet could see 1-3 inches of snow accumulations with a light dusting to a couple tenths of an inch elsewhere in the higher elevations. Lows tonight will range from 20's in the higher terrain to low 30's elsewhere. Highs on Monday will remain cool with highs in the upper 20's/low 30's across the high terrain and upper 30's to mid 40's elsewhere.
353 PM EST Sun Jan 17 2021 Cloudy with continued snow showers and flurries through Monday as a cold front approaches and crosses the region. The best chances for snow will be in the western Mohawk Valley and across the high terrain of the southern Green Mountains tonight.
1154 AM CST Sun Jan 17 2021 Patchy freezing drizzle early this morning over northwest Wisconsin. A closed upper low near the Ohio River Valley today will move to the East Coast Monday.
For this afternoon, latest RAP40 500mb analysis in combination with a mid level water vapor loop, currently show the region lying in between a strong upper ridge over the western portion of the country, and a broad trough over the east. It will be this system and associated weak cold front, that will be affecting the CWA overnight into Monday.
942 AM CST Sun Jan 17 2021 A weak back door cold front is draped from Bottineau back east through eastern North Dakota, with some light snow ongoing in the Red River Valley this morning. Upper level analysis places trough over the midwest, and ridge over the western CONUS. For today, modest ridging passing through brings a quiet start to the day, but in the meantime the first in a pair of short waves starts dropping through the flow towards our area.
Pressure gradient relatively tight with deep low over the Canadian Maritimes and pressure ridge over Florida. Closed upper low over the Mid Mississippi Valley this afternoon will open up and progress east overnight while amplifying a bit. The trough will be across the region by morning. Moisture ahead of the trough is limited with precipitable water near 0. There may be a weak surface cold front or trough. Overnight lows dropping back down to near freezing. Lingering pressure gradient from departing low from the NE and additional low pressure system arriving in the Great Lakes will lead to breezy conditions out of the west once again tomorrow. Likely keep a bit of boundary layer wind overnight which should limit radiational cooling, although lows will still drop to around freezing.
933 AM CST Sun Jan 17 2021 Another upper low currently over NW Illinois will move to the SE during the course of the day, reaching southern Indiana by the early evening. A trough axis extending south of the low should also develop. Under this trough, a weak cold front will form and move across the forecast area during the course of the afternoon and early evening. The infrared/visible satellite view indicated an expansive area of stratus remaining across the NE quadrant of the CONUS (some of it associated with low pressure well to our NE), as well as the western Illinois system. The upper trough will pull east quickly tonight with good subsidence in it's wake. On Monday, high pressure over TX will shift into the northeast Gulf of Mexico with a weak ridge axis northward through the TN valley.
1246 PM EST Sun Jan 17 2021 An upper level low pressure system will move east across the Ohio Valley today and tonight. Weak high pressure and drier conditions will build into the Ohio Valley for Monday.
The clouds and virga will depart this evening, leaving mostly clear conditions later tonight and into Monday as surface ridging along the Gulf Coast builds across the area. It will be rather chilly tonight, with mainly light wind and a clear sky allowing for decent radiational cooling with lows below freezing in many areas. The forecast period starts off tomorrow night with zonal flow across the southern CONUS while a closed upper low becomes cut off just off the coast of Baja California. Sub-tropical ridging will remain centered across Hispaniola, Cuba and into the southern Gulf of Mexico. This synoptic pattern will yield several rounds of rainfall through the week as anomalously moist air advects into the Lower Mississippi Valley around the periphery of the sub-tropical ridge.
As temperature cools; snow showers should more readily accumulate on untreated sfcs through daybreak Monday, with lower elevations expecting about one inch while the ridges get another 2 to 3. In the wake of the exiting trough, heights will briefly rise Monday, and most of the snow shower activity should largely be confined to the I-80 corridor and ridges.
Light snow associated with this trough has been reported in the western CWA this afternoon.
401 PM CST Sun Jan 17 2021 An 850 mb ridge axis is gradually shifting eastward into sw Kansas this afternoon, which may weaken the surface winds toward sunset when gusts will completely cease. Winds will turn lights and southwest this evening on the backside of the ridge while temperatures plummet from the low 50s around 5 pm to the upper 30s immediately after sunset. A cold front will be moving though the area early Monday morning. Still , Monday looks warmer, with afternoon temperatures in the low 50s and breezy northwest winds behind the front.
Clear skies will prevail much of the night, with some increase in high cloudiness toward dawn as the western CONUS ridge breaks down. Unseasonably mild weather will be likely tomorrow as temperatures warm into the upper 50s to near 60 in many locations as low level thermal ridge expands east over the area ahead of an approaching cold front that will move into northeast Oklahoma by late afternoon.
Deterministic runs move an upper trough/low across the Midwest/ERN CONUS while a series of upper disturbances result in the development of a mean upper trough over the WRN CONUS/Baja CA during the period.
312 PM CST Sun Jan 17 2021 (Issued 312 PM CST Sun Jan 17 2021) Tonight and Monday: Low pressure over Lower Michigan will slowly pull away tonight. Southeast WI is still seeing light snow showers with this low level moisture stuck in cyclonic flow, along with weak low level frontogenesis. Very light snow showers or flurries may linger for portions of southern WI through much of the night until the upper low moves out and drier air can move in. High temperatures should be a notch cooler tomorrow than they were today.
The large scale trough forcing the snow across the area digs to the southeastern CONUS and the weakening mid level low pressure system continues to shift to our east. However, with the cooler air coming in, a relatively thick DGZ and residence time of the column in that DGZ along with some low level theta-e lapse rate instability and wind convergence, feel there could be some stronger lake effect bands possible. The higher totals near the lake includes totals as a result of the pivot point of the low, but also because of some of the lake enhancement there and potentially cooler pavement temps. Highs on Monday rise back to the low 30s. Moving forward, a southeast high pressure system and southwest cutoff low takes hold.
542 PM CST Sun Jan 17 2021 Light and variable winds and clear skies will prevail through the evening and overnight hours as high pressure remains in control of the weather.
Lower heights over central and eastern Canada have resulted in general troughing across the eastern CONUS. South of there, upper level ridging was in place SW of California, and a subtropical flow moving NE from west of Mexico, was hinting of a split flow setting up over the continent. This has resulted in partly cloudy skies across the region, with 2 PM temperatures rising into the lower 50s. Winds should also slacken and veer slightly to a WNW direction, partially in response to a weak cold front moving across the region. No precipitation is expected, given that the air west of the front was only slightly cooler and drier than to its east. Martin Luther King Jr Day / Monday should feature generally sunny skies and temperatures a tad cooler, with highs rising into the upper 40s to around 50.
A secondary band of ascent (related to the latter disturbance mentioned above) will brush the region on Monday night, supporting a chance of additional light snow or light freezing drizzle, mainly over our northern and eastern counties. Highs on Monday will be in the lower to mid 30s in areas of clouds and snow with around 40 near the KS border.
522 PM CST Sun Jan 17 2021 (This evening through Monday) Gusty northwest winds will diminish quickly this evening and will then shift back to the southwest overnight ahead of next weak cold front. Otherwise, overnight will be cool with periods of some mid/high clouds, but a bit less than last night, so temps are expected to be a few degrees cooler. Moisture will lift northward ahead of the cold front and by late in the day tomorrow we may see an increase in lower clouds across parts of southern and southeastern Oklahoma. No precip is expected along the front during the day tomorrow and temperatures will be may actually be a few degrees warmer than today.
742 PM EST Sun Jan 17 2021 Upper trough digs into the area tonight with snow showers expected into early Monday.
A cold front tomorrow morning will turn winds to the north and also bring breezy winds of 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 to 30 knots possible. Overall the Panhandles will be split between the warm/cold air masses and thus temperatures will be right around normal with highs in the lower to mid 50s tomorrow.
A short wave trough over Montana will track southeast into Nebraska. A weak front pushes south across the area tonight and brings cooler air for Monday. The warmest temperatures are expected across northern areas due to northerly downslope winds off the Cheyenne Ridge.
Cooler temperatures will be possible by late week into the weekend feeling more like January.
In a strong northwest flow, a trough will dive southeast across the forecast area late tonight and Monday. The associated cold front looks to pull across the county warning area between 06Z and 12Z Monday.
528 PM CST Sun Jan 17 2021 An upper low that passed by to our south overnight is slowly retreating towards the Ohio Valley this afternoon. On a smaller scale, some weak low level frontogenesis bands have continued to produce light snow/flurries and perhaps some patchy freezing drizzle at times across portions of southwest and west-central WI since this morning. Forecast soundings generally show low level saturation extending deep enough into the snow-growth zone (or at least a seeder-feeder setup in place) to support mainly light snow chances, but can't rule out a lack of ice in the clouds at times that could produce some patchy freezing drizzle.
949 PM EST Sun Jan 17 2021 An upper level trough of Low Pressure over the Ohio Valley will move across the northern Mid Atlantic tonight and early Monday. This will maintain mostly cloudy conditions along and west of the Blue Ridge with scattered to numerous snow showers across the mountains.
Upper troughing over the eastern CONUS will force a weak "clipper" type reinforcing cold front through ECFL late overnight into early Mon morning. High pressure will move east across the FL panhandle resulting in a light N/NW drainage flow over EC FL with a reinforcing supply of cool dry air. A cold front will be forced southward across the area overnight into early Mon morning. Cloudiness will thin from north to south across ECFL thru Mon morning and early afternoon as drier/cooler air filters southward. Increasing W/WNW winds overnight, 15-20 kts offshore (Exercise Caution), generally north of Sebastian Inlet, and 10-15 kts elsewhere as a cold front moves across the waters late into Mon morning.
Regardless, as the trough continues eastward the flurries and very light snow will be possible early this evening across eastern MN and WI. These won't have much of an impact locally with an axis of high pressure over MN.
436 PM PST Sun Jan 17 2021 Updated air quality section A trough of low pressure will move southward down the California coastline tonight and Monday morning.
654 PM EST Sun Jan 17 2021 Upper trough digs into the area tonight with snow showers expected into early Monday.
Most of the precip should be in the form of snow, even with temps above freezing at times. An upper low currently to our northwest over the Wabash River Valley will degrade into an open wave as it moves east tonight, with a remnant trough crossing our area. A cold front will approach from the northwest on Monday night, with a weak low pressure wave probably traveling along it. Models show an area of precip develop during the night in the warm air advection regime ahead of the front, with the highest POP in the JKL forecast area being in our northeast counties.
Will keep the lows around zero that we have going for now, but reevaluate as the night goes on.
This higher boundary layer moisture will continue to move inland into the Brush Country this evening. Deterministic runs move an upper trough/low across the Midwest/ERN CONUS while a series of upper disturbances result in the development of a mean upper trough over the WRN CONUS/Baja CA during the period.
720 PM EST Sun Jan 17 2021 Abundant clouds and a few sprinkles moving across the region this evening ahead of a reinforcing cold front that will be moving southward across the area overnight.
A cold front will move across the region late tomorrow morning which will lead to breezy northerly winds in its wake. Flow aloft will back from northwest to west during this period which will induce a southwest to west low level flow early in the day Monday before the passage of the next cold front.
A cold front will accompany the s/w as it moves through the area.
136 PM PST Sun Jan 17 2021 A trough of low pressure will move southward down the California coastline tonight and Monday morning.
426 PM MST Sun Jan 17 2021 20z surface analysis had low over east central AB with trough into western NE. Trailing cold front will sweep across MT through the CWA tonight. 5-2" on the plains of western SD, 1-4" for northeast WY with the highest totals near the MT/SD borders. Isallobaric forcing looks to come in two batches, the first of which will arrive tonight with gusty northwest winds at times behind cold front.
752 PM CST Sun Jan 17 2021 Updated suite of forecast products earlier this evening to emphasize potential for an initial scattered light rain/snow mix initiating during mid evening hours transitioning mainly to all snowfall late evening through overnight hours as an upper level trough axis moves across mid state region tonight.
/issued 353 PM CST Sun Jan 17 2021/ A weak cold front is still working its way through the area today. Other than a few clouds, slightly cooler temps, and light to moderate nw winds, the front did little to change conditions experienced prior to its passage. This seems like the last night with temps dropping into the 30s for the remainder of the forecast period due to warmer temps expected all of this week and into the weekend. Tomorrow will be the start of a noticeable warming trend, with min temps tomorrow night expected to be in the upper 40s to lower 50s; 10 degrees warmer than tonight.
An 850 mb ridge axis is gradually shifting eastward into sw Kansas this afternoon, which may weaken the surface winds toward sunset when gusts will completely cease. Winds will turn lights and southwest this evening on the backside of the ridge while temperatures plummet from the low 50s around 5 pm to the upper 30s immediately after sunset. A cold front will be moving though the area early Monday morning. Still , Monday looks warmer, with afternoon temperatures in the low 50s and breezy northwest winds behind the front.
The higher level moisture has been responsible for the thick high clouds today. southeast coast in advance of the progressive longwave trough moving past the Mississippi River Valley. As upper- level lift strengthens tonight, it will cause the higher clouds to thicken, and some precip is likely to fall out of the high cloud deck. The upper trough currently over the Mississippi Valley will quickly sweep off the Southeast U.
857 PM EST Sun Jan 17 2021 Upper trough digs into the area tonight with snow showers expected into early Monday.
Early this afternoon, an amplified upper level trough was located from lake MI, south-southwest into the lower MS River Valley. Temperatures have warmed into the lower to mid 40s across much of the CWA. A weak cold front will move southeast across the CWA through the day but there will not be much of a thermal gradient behind this front.
Winds will turn westerly Mon AM ahead of the next cold front which will 1st arrive at HOB a few hrs before the end of the forecast. /issued 148 PM CST Sun Jan 17 2021/ Upper ridge building into area today but the next upper trough will work down the CA Coast on Monday.
353 PM CST Sun Jan 17 2021 A weak cold front is still working its way through the area today. Other than a few clouds, slightly cooler temps, and light to moderate nw winds, the front did little to change conditions experienced prior to its passage. This seems like the last night with temps dropping into the 30s for the remainder of the forecast period due to warmer temps expected all of this week and into the weekend. Tomorrow will be the start of a noticeable warming trend, with min temps tomorrow night expected to be in the upper 40s to lower 50s; 10 degrees warmer than tonight.
854 PM CST Sun Jan 17 2021 No significant updates to the forecast overnight with high pressure settled over the Northern Gulf Coast. Light northerly winds will be in place through the overnight hours, reinforcing the cooler, drier Plains air mass. /issued 542 PM CST Sun Jan 17 2021/ Light and variable winds and clear skies will prevail through the evening and overnight hours as high pressure remains in control of the weather.
We are not completely out of the woods this morning as there is a narrow band of moisture on the back side of the upper trough along the WI/MN border. There could be some patchy freezing drizzle in the next few hours, but it would be short lived. Expect an uptick in mostly flurries (some minor visibility reductions may briefly occur) after daybreak which will spread to the lakefront mid to late morning as the back edge of the trough axis moves through. A separate disturbance will also miss our area to the north but will send a subtle/reinforcing cold front into the lower Great Lakes.
Expect a return in some cloud cover near sunset, but the vast majority of the day will feature plentiful sunshine, breezy westerly winds, and afternoon temps topping out in the low 50s.
258 AM CST Mon Jan 18 2021 06Z surface data has a weak clipper type system centered in northwest South Dakota with high pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley. Through sunrise and the morning hours some weak forcing combined with warmer air aloft will generate some passing flurries mainly north of I-80.
Cooler temperatures will be possible by late week into the weekend feeling more like January. Most of the low clouds will be across extreme eastern Washington and into the Idaho Panhandle. There is light westerly to northwesterly flow in the boundary layer that will be advecting drier dew points into the westerly edge of the low clouds that may prevent much expansion of the low clouds further west into KMWH- KEPH-KEAT.
High pressure at surface stretches across the gulf coast this morning while centered south of Louisiana. With the high over the region and a dry NW flow aloft, dry and mild conditions are expected today and tonight.
Thereafter, a series of weak troughs along with a cold front will pivot across the area through the middle of the week.
The axis of a positively-sheared 500-mb trough will continue to advance southeastward through the TN Valley region late this evening and early Monday morning. Although the majority of the falling hydrometeors will still evaporate into virga before reaching the ground, a mixture of rain and snow will be possible beneath the higher reflectivity cores, especially across our southern Middle TN and northeast AL zones, with a mix of sprinkles and flurries possible further to the southwest. Regardless, accumulating snowfall appears highly unlikely, although a few spots in the higher terrain of southern Middle TN may experience a dusting up to a few tenths of an inch as temperatures fall into the u20s-l30s. Martin Luther King Jr Day / Monday should feature generally sunny skies and temperatures a tad cooler, with highs rising into the upper 40s to around 50.
For the lower Treasure Valley, Long Valley, and central Harney County, areas of fog and low stratus is anticipated overnight tonight as dewpoints remain relatively high.
These cu will eventually become cigs during the evening as they continue to spread NE into SCntrl AR, ahead of a weak cold front that will begin entering portions of extreme NE TX/SE OK/Nrn sections of SW AR during the evening.
338 AM EST Mon Jan 18 2021 Early morning IR satellite imagery is showing bands of cirrus clouds streaming across much of the forecast area in the wake of the recent cold front, although clear skies over the northern Nature Coast is allowing some cooler low temperatures there, with patchy frost expected to develop through sunrise.
1028 PM CST Sun Jan 17 2021 Southwest winds in the 10 to 15 knot range overnight will become north at 20 knots with higher gusts behind a cold front Monday morning. clouds will increase and lower behind the cold front. A cold front tomorrow morning will turn winds to the north and also bring breezy winds of 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 to 30 knots possible. Overall the Panhandles will be split between the warm/cold air masses and thus temperatures will be right around normal with highs in the lower to mid 50s tomorrow.
Gehring (Issued 312 PM CST Sun Jan 17 2021) Tonight and Monday: Low pressure over Lower Michigan will slowly pull away tonight. Southeast WI is still seeing light snow showers with this low level moisture stuck in cyclonic flow, along with weak low level frontogenesis. Very light snow showers or flurries may linger for portions of southern WI through much of the night until the upper low moves out and drier air can move in. High temperatures should be a notch cooler tomorrow than they were today.
1024 PM EST Sun Jan 17 2021 A relic ridge axis is across the Florida Keys and South Florida. Temperatures are in the lower 60s with dewpoints in the 50s. High pressure over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico will lumber to the east overnight, driving a surge of moderate northwesterly breezes through the Keys Monday morning. A weak ridge axis over South Florida will dissipate overnight.
909 PM CST Sun Jan 17 2021 An upper level trof is moving through the Mid-South this evening. Showers should taper off around midnight as the upper trof moves east. A weak area of high pressure will move toward the region tonight keeping things dry tonight. High pressure will remain over the region on Monday bringing one more day of dry weather. A cold front will move into Arkansas Monday night.
Expect numerous snow showers over the Alleghenies and Laurels with flurries in the ridge and valley region.