Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
219 AM PDT Thu Jul 29 2021 Slightly warmer than average high temperatures look likely into the foreseeable future over the forecast area.
434 AM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021 A weak cold front is gradually sinking southward towards the local area this morning. a slight change in the warmer direction will need to be monitored as it would likely justify the extension of heat advisories across parts of the local area another day.
Overnight guidance still indicates that upper ridge will build in with sufficient heat and low level moisture to approach or exceed heat advisory threshold of 105. Westerlies around periphery of upper trough begin to dip south into ern TN/wrn SC/NC on Friday so could see some isold/sct storms move into north GA Fri afternoon and evening, perhaps making it as far south as ATL metro.
Temperatures will be variable, but generally within 5 degrees of normal, outside of this weekend which will be cooler.
616 AM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021 A weak cold front is gradually sinking southward towards the local area this morning. a slight change in the warmer direction will need to be monitored as it would likely justify the extension of heat advisories across parts of the local area another day.
The ridge axis that has straddled the island chain over the past day or so is slowly progressing northward.
The excessive heat will remain the big issue for the next couple of days as upper high continues to dominate the overall weather pattern.
A few more showers or thunderstorms may develop ahead of a cold front later tonight. Otherwise, expect a drier day tomorrow but with abundant cloud cover and cooler temperatures.
Seasonably warm weather pattern continues inland through Friday with high pressure over the region. Have put the kmux radar into precip mode to better scan some of the high based returns well offshore. Do expect some inland cooling by this weekend as the marine layer deepens and onshore winds strengthen in response to approaching West Coast trough that will nudge the main ridge farther eastward while fairly significant monsoonal moisture will sneak northward into NV/ID/OR. High clouds continue to be a factor giving and obstructed view of the low level clouds that have struggled to push inland overnight. KSFO Bridge Approach.
A cold front across northern MO/western IL looks to slowly approach the region into early Friday morning. Far northeastern portions of the CWA may run slightly cooler (low- 90s) behind a cold front that is expected to slowly translate south/southwestward, eventually becoming quasi-stationary, across portions of southwest Missouri later Friday.
Anticipate cumulus buildups forming now across the higher terrain transitioning into thunderstorms by 11am - 12pm MST. This has started over the White Mountains, Mogollon Rim and the higher elevations of north-central Arizona. This activity will build throughout the day with showers and thunderstorms moving into the lower elevations through the afternoon and evening hours.
Temperatures have remained 3 to 5 degrees cooler as a result, with many locations barely reaching 90F at this hour.
The other factor tomorrow will be a cold front dropping south into middle and eastern TN during the afternoon hours.
310 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021 Debris cloud cover from last night's MCS that moved across the Upper Midwest has held temperatures in the lower 90s for the most part across the CWA. However, dewpoints in the upper 70s to lower 80s have been more than able to compensate for the lower temperatures. Tonight, remnant outflow boundaries and an approaching cold front will kick off isolated to scattered convection to our north and northwest.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening, mainly in the higher terrain, and gusty winds will occur with any storms that form.
Mainly affecting the high country. Best chances are across the southern highlands as a low pressure system arrives from the south.
Main upper level high pressure continues to dominate our weather pattern for the short term forecast period. Temperatures may be a tad warmer, especially across the northern Panhandles where better large scale subsidence will take place. High temperatures tomorrow will range from the lower 90s in the southern TX Panhandle to upper 90s for the northeastern combined Panhandles. Meccariello Upper level ridge is expected to stretch from western Canada southward into the U.
A quick look at the latest HRRR-smoke model output, valid through 5 AM CDT Friday, it appears as though the blanket of surface/near surface smoke is going to be sticking around across the CWA through tonight and a better part of Friday, before the low level wind switches around and the eastern/southeastern edge of the smoke plume begins to head toward this region.
Though mid-upper level support remains scarce due to ridging, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon along the sea breeze.
322 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 A strong ridge will build over the next few days pushing heat index values up toward 105F this afternoon and tomorrow.
(This evening through Friday) An upper level ridge, currently centered over Kansas, will remain in place and perhaps gradually shift a bit into northeast Oklahoma on Friday. Our area will remain on the southern periphery of this ridge.
Some very thin cirrus clouds are moving into SW VA, NE TN, and the northern Valley from the decaying MCS in the OH Valley, but drier mid-levels and subsidence beneath the strong mid/upper ridge that is elongated from the Plains through the TN Valley will erode most of these clouds allowing skies to stay mostly sunny through the afternoon. VFR will generally prevail over the next 24 hours with SW winds of 4-8 kts becoming NW behind a cold front early Fri afternoon. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 97 72 95 73 / 0 30 0 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 75 94 69 92 71 / 10 30 0 10 40 Oak Ridge, TN 74 93 68 92 70 / 10 30 0 20 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 71 89 63 87 65 / 30 30 0 10 40.
241 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021 Canadian wildfire smoke is being shuttled southward across the area in northerly upper level flow downstream of Rockies to High Plains upper ridge. The rain could limit highs Friday into the lower 70s in some areas south. Flow pattern aloft looks to remain stagnant with ridging entrenched out west and broad troughing east. This will lead to a continuation of northwest flow and generally a drier and cooler regime.
Outside of the smoke high pressure will limit chances for much wet weather today and tomorrow.
That said, high pressure will continue to build in across our airspace, limiting -RA/-TSRA elsewhere. Ridging over the Great Plains continues to slowly build southeast into the Ark-La-Tex, reinforcing temperatures further into the upper 90s this afternoon.
Friday, a weak PV anomaly/MCV over northeast Wyoming will gradually move southeast over the ridge and into Nebraska and Iowa later on Friday.
Seasonably warm weather pattern continues inland through Friday with high pressure over the region. Have put the kmux radar into precip mode to better scan some of the high based returns well offshore. Do expect some inland cooling by this weekend as the marine layer deepens and onshore winds strengthen in response to approaching West Coast trough that will nudge the main ridge farther eastward while fairly significant monsoonal moisture will sneak northward into NV/ID/OR. KSFO Bridge Approach.
The surface ridging will lift northward and broad upper ridging builds in from the northwest by early Friday as the troughing lifts northeastward along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England. A predominant west-southwest wind will persist, but lower moisture will equate to slightly lower rain and storm chances each day through the weekend with POPs around 30-50 percent each day with the highest chances early morning over the eastern gulf and moving eastward through the day. Another upper trough and weak frontal boundary moves into the southeast U. This will push the ridge over southern Florida once again and also bring increasing moisture to the region. Scattered showers and storms will be possible each day with the highest coverage during the overnight and early morning hours before moving inland during the afternoon. West-southwest winds prevail as high pressure ridges over southern Florida.
Cooler and drier conditions are expected on Friday. This would suggest the highest severe potential for possible second round around midday in our southern zones generally in line with latest SLIGHT SWODY1. Much cooler and less humid with highs on Fri in the 70s.
SIGNIFICANT HEAT STRESS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY Tonight and tomorrow: A dangerously hot and humid airmass will remain in place across the region beneath stout upper ridging stretching into the Lower Mississippi Valley from the Central Plains. A few stray showers and thunderstorms may scrape across far southern portions of the area late this afternoon, but convection will remain suppressed owing to increasing ridging and nebulous forcing. /TW/ Ridging aloft will maintain its presence over the region heading into the upcoming weekend.
1239 PM PDT Thu Jul 29 2021 Slightly warmer than average high temperatures look likely into the foreseeable future over the forecast area.
/Tonight through Friday Night/ Temperatures will gradually decrease after sunset tonight, however, overnight lows will remain elevated into the mid-to-upper 70s due to persistent dew points in the low-to-mid 70s. Ridging aloft, over the Lower Great Plains, continues to gradually build southeastward into the Ark-La-Tex, reinforcing an environment conducive for hot conditions once again. More significantly, with dew points still in the low-to-mid 70s, heat indices will meet or exceed 105 degrees areawide, prompting issuance of another Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT on Friday. Light southerly surface winds will veer, gaining a westerly component overnight as surface ridging moves offshore over the Gulf of Mexico.
Nonetheless, a few showers and thunderstorms have managed to break through over the northwest counties with the cold front right on the edge of the forecast warning area. Meanwhile, effective bulk shear is around 30 kts with that cold front quickly approaching the area. Daytime highs are projected to only top off in the upper 70s to mid 80s with comfortable dew points in the upper 50s/low 60s as high pressure strengthens over the area.
Visibility in parts of South Dakota and especially Minnesota is down to under three miles due to the wildfire smoke working in with the cooler air from Canada. The threat for severe weather is greater on Friday when an MCV over Wyoming will ride the ridge and help produce plentiful shear and quite the hodographs as revealed in guidance. Parts of northern Kansas will be warmer and an EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING borders our southern counties.
Westerly flow/WAA ahead of the associated cold front will allow for warmer temps and highs may reach the mid/upper 80s (cloud/smoke dependent).
1208 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021 (Today and tonight) Water vapor imagery early this morning shows the upper ridge dominating the central US. Expect another hot and muggy day under the ridge, with heat index values exceeding 105 along and east of I-35 (heat advisory).
A cold front was located from just south of Princeton Illinois to south of Fairfield Iowa.
137 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 Showers and thunderstorms will be crossing the area today with the passage of a cold front. High pressure returns dry and seasonably cool conditions for the first half of the weekend. Though storms may continue north of I-80 due weak sfc convergence, the main focus will be on scattered shower and thunderstorm development ahead of an approaching pre-frontal trough this afternoon and early evening. Otherwise, drier conditions are expected due to building high pressure and dry, cold advection.
High pressure is centered over the forecast area keeping skies clear and winds light and variable.
326 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 Low pressure near Toronto will move east into upstate New York while a cold front settles south across the region toward evening.
Temps will reach into the low-mid 90s today thanks to more ample sunshine compared to yesterday.
1053 AM MDT Thu Jul 29 2021 Latest WV imagery/upper air analysis showed the center of the upper ridge from eastern CO through KS.
242 PM MDT Thu Jul 29 2021 Upper ridge centered over the central Plains will continue to dominate the weather over our region through Friday. Monsoonal moisture working into the region and weak disturbances moving up along the ridge will produce showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, and again on Friday.
A cold front will usher in a much cooler airmass for Friday with high temperatures much below normal in the 60s to around 70.
200 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021 (Issued 200 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021) Tonight through Friday night: A ridge of high pressure will dominate this period with dry and quiet conditions. As the high slips to the east Friday night a weak return flow sets up. A cooler and less humid regime will be in place as well.
/NEW/ /Rest of Today through Friday/ A mid-level ridge remains in place to our north, but a persistent east/southeast flow will continue to bring moisture into our area through the end of the week. Despite the upper level ridge slowly shifting south on Friday, more isolated to scattered showers and storms will still be possible in the afternoon and early evening.
(This evening through Friday) The negatively-tilted ridge centered over eastern Kansas will shift slowly southward and reach northeast Oklahoma by tomorrow evening.
Hot and humid conditions continue to be the common theme across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas today as the ridge of high pressure holds over the region. temps were already running slightly warmer compared to 24 hrs ago. afternoon temperatures are expected to continue to climb at or a degree or so warmer than yesterday.
On Friday the eastern periphery of the ridge upper level builds slightly southward, however South Central Texas will remain just far enough removed that it won't completely end rain chances. The low level flow does turn more southeasterly.
Still expecting scattered storms to develop along a weak cold front dropping into the CWA from northern IL. Overnight lows are expected to fall into the 60s given the precip moving south of the area and cooler air advecting into central IL. Tomorrows highs will be much cooler as well, only reaching to around 80. Temps will also be on the cooler side, with highs in the upper 70s to into the 80s.
Dangerously Hot Temperatures through Friday and into the A large and strong upper level ridge of high pressure extends from the Central Plains across the Gulf Coast States. Very warm temperatures and high humidity will persist through tonight, therefore extended the heat advisory through the overnight hours as well to account for this and the expected longer duration of this high heat event. The heat and humidity will only worsen on Friday as the upper ridge strengthens over the forecast area.
906 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 Showers and thunderstorms will be crossing the area today with the passage of a cold front. High pressure returns dry and seasonably cool conditions for the first half of the weekend. Otherwise, drier conditions are expected due to building high pressure and dry, cold advection.
High pressure remains overhead with VFR conditions and L/V winds expected through the period.
To complicate matters, an upper low centered over northern Mexico will continue to track farther northwest and weaken over the next 36 hours. Difluence aloft ahead of the low should provide enough support for additional isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through tonight. Latest models depicted the upper low centered over Sonora, Mexico just south of the International Border by Friday morning.
/28/ Tonight and tomorrow: A dangerously hot and humid airmass will remain in place across the region beneath stout upper ridging stretching into the Lower Mississippi Valley from the Central Plains. A few stray showers and thunderstorms may scrape across far southern portions of the area late this afternoon, but convection will remain suppressed owing to increasing ridging and nebulous forcing. /TW/ Ridging aloft will maintain its presence over the region heading into the upcoming weekend.
839 PM MDT Thu Jul 29 2021 Shower and thunderstorm activity (in this low shear and weakly forced environment) has been confined to our western and southern mountains/foothills so far. JKL Upper ridge centered over the central Plains will continue to dominate the weather over our region through Friday. Monsoonal moisture working into the region and weak disturbances moving up along the ridge will produce showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, and again on Friday.
Did not get as hot as model guidance advertised for today with only 95 at BNA and 86 at CSV, which appears to be due to a number of factors - including a weaker upper ridge with less subsidence aloft, higher tropospheric moisture, and possibly a slight reduction of solar radiation due to some wildfire smoke in the mid/upper levels.
Cooler temperatures are expected behind that cold front. Also concentrated behind that cold front, some of the smoke from fires over the western U. and Canada is being shown by the HRRR to be concentrated near the surface on the northern side of the cold front.
Looks like flow amplitude will undergo some amplification (western ridging/eastern troughing) as we go through Friday. Eventually as the wave begins to depress the flow, the low-level jet response should begin to refocus precip development southward. The veering low-level jet should end precipitation from north to south on Friday night, with potential to be on the northern edge of some heavier rainfall toward the lower Missouri River valley.
Ridge of high pressure remains centered over much of the Central US with the western edge situated over California. Temperatures are forecast to remain above normal through tomorrow as high pressure remains over the area. Overnight temperatures are forecast to be fairly toasty once again tonight, only falling to the low to mid 70s in the Valley and foothills with some thermal belt locations in the foothills only falling to the low 80s. An upper level trough forming off of the eastern Pacific Coast will lower heights over Northern California this weekend, moderating temperatures.
Slightly warmer than average high temperatures look likely into the foreseeable future over the forecast area.
745 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 A weak mid level low/trough over the northeast Gulf of Mexico and north FL early this evening slips westward during the night as mid level ridging above the central plains builds across the Deep South to the southeast US coastal waters. At the surface Atlantic high pressure stretches to the central Gulf waters. Atlantic high pressure stretches to the central Gulf of Mexico.
/Issued 322 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021/ A strong ridge will build over the next few days pushing heat index values up toward 105F this afternoon and tomorrow.
746 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 Cooler and notably less humid will filter southwards across the forecast area later tonight and Friday. as a cold front will make its way into Pennsylvania.
516 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 A cold front passage will bring showers and thunderstorms through this evening, with some showers possible through Friday morning.
903 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021 The upper level pattern features a ridge centered across the central and southern Plains with a trough to the north across the eastern Great Lakes. This trough is racing to the southeast and pushing a front through the Ohio River Valley. Closer to home, things are dry as the upper ridge influences the weather here. The other factor tomorrow will be a cold front dropping south into middle and eastern TN during the afternoon hours.
- Heat index readings near 105 will occur south/west of a cold front Friday afternoon. Main focus this afternoon and evening will be ongoing dangerous heat indicies, followed by a chance for scattered thunderstorms along a sagging southward cold front. Heat concerns will remain Friday afternoon in areas south of the cold front, and with multiple days of heat this week, will lead to a dangerous cumulative effect of potential heat-related illness.
639 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021 Canadian wildfire smoke is being shuttled southward across the area in northerly upper level flow downstream of Rockies to High Plains upper ridge. The rain could limit highs Friday into the lower 70s in some areas south. Flow pattern aloft looks to remain stagnant with ridging entrenched out west and broad troughing east. This will lead to a continuation of northwest flow and generally a drier and cooler regime.
1256 AM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be ending late tonight with an exiting cold front. High pressure returns dry and seasonably cool conditions through Saturday. Models are honing in on eastern Ohio, northern West Virginia and far southwestern Pennsylvania as the locales with the highest probability of additional activity. Cooler and drier air will slowly overspread the region behind the cold front as winds from the surface to 500mb will be out of the northwest. Dry and more comfortable conditions are expected today due to building high pressure and weak cold advection. High pressure will keep the area dry through Saturday.
Dry conditions continue through Saturday as an upper level high sits above the Plains with high pressure to the east and lee troughing to the west at the surface. Models then suggest the upper level high to slide west over the Rockies with an upper level trough over the eastern United States this weekend. A cold front will move through the area Saturday evening with increased chances of precipitation behind this feature. There is a stalled cold front near the Kansas and Nebraska line, which by all accounts should lift north later Friday as a warm front.
257 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021 Upper level high pressure was centered over Kansas early this morning with some cirrus managing to ooze west into eastern Kansas from thunderstorms in central Missouri. Low-level thermal trends suggest a slightly cooler day for air temps though some differences linger on dewpoint values, with quite high levels possible near the front. Thunderstorms may develop along and just behind the front this afternoon into tonight with little afternoon and evening CIN (especially if the higher dewpoints are realized) and MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. The front slides south tonight through Saturday evening as weak waves traverse the upper flow and carve out modest upper troughing. The remainder of the weekend brings north to northeast winds for cooler temps under clearing skies as the upper ridge is shunted southwest.
The low level flow from the northeast today will advect in smoke from a new area, south central Canada. Smoke from western wildfires will get blocked for today as ridge to the west shunts it northward, but it will push over the ridge and back into the area from the north by Saturday.
The upper high will be off to our west and still will help keep the heat around today, but mainly for the southern half of the area.
Outside of the smoke high pressure will limit chances for much wet weather today and tomorrow. If it remains aloft than impacts will be limited to reddish suns and cooler temperatures.
(Today and tonight) Upper level high pressure will remain centered over Kansas and Oklahoma through tonight. Warm temperatures can be expected again tonight, with lows in the low to mid 70s.
154 AM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021 A cold front will push through the rest of the area early this morning, providing cooler and drier into Friday and Saturday.
A cold front was located from just south of Princeton Illinois to south of Fairfield Iowa. After this, NW flow takes over and leads to cooler air across the area. BRL may see some tsra before a wind shift and cold front moves into the area. Have prevailing VFR in the TAFs during this time due to the low confidence.