Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front is moving through the Great Valley without too much fanfare other than a few cumulus clouds. Flight weather may deteriorate to ifr and even lower ceilings while visibility may remain at the lower end of mvfr category. Perhaps the lowest flight condition would develop at tri. The lowest decks may rise into mvfr ceilings through about mid day before mixing out to vfr weather.
821 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2017 Crossing low pressure will bring occasional showers to the area through tonight. Light rain chances will continue Thursday before the low dissipates. convection holding on just ahead of surface cold front.
Little change in the low level winds tomorrow will mean a continuation of lowered cigs well into the afternoon hours. /issued 253 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Low to mid level moisture will remain high across northeast Mexico and the Rio Grande valley tonight with the 500mb ridge across the northern Gulf coast providing an easterly flow aloft. the combination of a stationary frontal boundary across the northwest Gulf of Mexico and a coastal trough across the western Gulf will some elevated. across portions of the lower Texas coast and offshore into Thurs.
Forecast remains on track with gradually drier air moving in overnight behind the cold frontal passage. Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 79 57 82 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 80 57 82 / 10 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 57 78 57 81 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 82 57 80 / 10 0 10 10.
511 PM PDT Wed Oct 11 2017 Cooler and showery weather is expected for the rest of the work week.
632 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017 High pressure will be over the area through the period.
1210 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017 Light rain chances are expected through Thursday under weakening low pressure.
/ISSUED 857 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017/ Surface analysis has high pressure over the Ozarks NE towards the Great Lakes. Ridge axis then extends back to the SW into Texas supporting light northeast winds over SE Texas. Favorable radiational cooling conditions should allow for temperatures to fall into the low 60s for most of the area with a few spots of upper 50s.
Latest trends suggests southward and eastward development in regard to the low level stratus. Otw, current temps range from the upper 50s northwest and north central sections to the lower 60s east and south. After 12/15Z as diurnal mixing influences become increasingly established, per building ridging influences sfc/aloft, total ceiling erosions should take place generally over a 2-3 hour time frame.
Cold front is now well east of us and tonight will be colder than last night. Upper trough will continue to bring snow showers to northern-most mountains, with light accumulations but southern areas will be mostly clear.
857 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017 Surface analysis has high pressure over the Ozarks NE towards the Great Lakes. Ridge axis then extends back to the SW into Texas supporting light northeast winds over SE Texas. Favorable radiational cooling conditions should allow for temperatures to fall into the low 60s for most of the area with a few spots of upper 50s.
That may change overnight, with a weak, but deep-layer trough approaching from the east. Currently, air temperatures in most Keys island communities are in the lower 80s, with dewpoint temperatures in the mid 70s. A large area of high pressure over the western North Atlantic will persist well north of the Florida Keys. Meanwhile, a broad, weak trough will move westward across the Bahamas, and approach Florida Keys coastal waters on Thursday.
Upper air data depicts a 500mb trough axis over the Pacific Northwest and an elongated high spanning across the southern states. This pattern is directing dry southwesterly flow across our area, although a hint of low-level moisture did advect up along the western flank of the ridge.
410 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 SHORT TERM (Today through Independence Day): Deep-layer ridging continues to dominate South Florida weather this weekend, bringing very warm temperatures and slightly below average rainfall coverage. Through the holiday, this pattern will basically remain intact, although the ridge will begin to weaken and its axis drift to the north and east.
Temps generally in the M-U70s with a few inland cooler spots in the L70s, and a few coastal sites around 80F. Some slight weakening of the mid level ridge overhead is indicated, while the surface/low level ridge axes remain over the southern half of the CWA.
The mean layer (1000-500 MB) ridge that was across central Fl splits with one center along the gulf coast and another in the western Atlantic. This leaves a broad weakness over the area with a trough draped across south Ga. Storms (especially this afternoon) may also be enhanced by mid level impulses that are traversing the trough across south Ga.
The northern fringe of the upper ridge will slip to our south as a short wave translates eastward across northern MS and AL. Temps will be in the lower to mid 90s.
High pressure will keep the weather quiet across central Indiana through early Monday.
115 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 Isolated showers and thunderstorms will come to an end with high pressure settling into the region tonight into Sunday. Expect lows in the lower and middle 60s. A trough in the upper atmosphere will be positioned across the Eastern CONUS through the period, with the ILN area on the southwest side of the trough.
320 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low northwest of Lake Superior this morning embedded in a trough across the Great Lakes region with troughing in the western U. Overall, did not make too many changes to the going forecast except went slightly warmer for this afternoon across the south with plenty of sunshine. Persistent upper troughing that that has been entrenched over the Great Lakes will shift a little further eastward with a slow increase in upper level heights across the area.
346 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017 Upper level high pressure dome is centered over the northern Gulf of Mexico this morning. The trough coming ashore the Pacific Coast this morning appears somewhat stronger than guidance had suggested over the past few days. Despite the high's progression westward, the mean flow remains nearly zonal through Sunday though some vorticity remains intact from the southern part of the trough which scoots across the northern periphery of the high. As the high strengthens across the desert southwest, our flow should become more northwesterly with a col between the SW high and the extension of the Bermuda high across the Gulf.
252 AM MDT Sun Jul 2 2017 High pressure aloft will bring seasonably warm temperatures across southern New Mexico and west Texas this week.
An upper level ridge will begin expanding over the intermountain region of the western U. The very warm upper level high pressure ridge which is normally anchored over the western U.
355 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 A weak cold front will move across the region early this morning. Latest weather analysis features weak surface cold front just to the west. Did maintain a slight chance across far southern zones into the overnight, but otherwise partly cloudy and modestly cooler/drier. Compressional heating ahead of the frontal passage will bring highs in the lower 90s on Monday, upper 80s coastal zones.
Otherwise, West Texas and Southeast new Mexico will remain under the influence of an upper ridge currently spanning the southern CONUS. WV imagery shows an upper trough over CA/NV that is forecast to move east and dig into the MS Valley by late in the week, shifting the ridge to the wrn CONUS as early as Monday evening. The upshot of this will be temperatures a little cooler than they have been the past couple of weeks.
421 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 Weak high pressure in control today and tonight.
Weak high pressure is in place. Weak ridging will remain in place through the short term period with convection driven by the sea breeze. PoPs will increase for Sunday and Monday as moisture moves around the subtropical ridge. PoPs will be 30-50% both days with the highest chance in SE Alabama and the Panhandle on Sunday and SW Georgia and the Big Bend on Monday.
145 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 High pressure will extend from the Atlantic westward through the northern Gulf of Mexico through Independence Day. North of the ridge some troughing will be in the forecast area. Coverage for convection was more scattered last evening, but they were also a little stronger as warmer temps helped to increase instability values late in the day. The heat will also help to develop a low level lee trof, aiding local surface convergence. Surface ridging will continue from the Atlantic westward through the northern Gulf of Mexico.
213 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 A cold front passes early this morning.
Storm chances decrease, especially over southwestern portions of the area where the deep layer airmass will be a little drier in closer proximity to the mid level ridge located over the far northern Gulf. Highs will climb into the low 90s, except for upper 80s along the immediate coast. Lows tonight will be back down into the low to mid 70s, except upper 70s at the coast.
The boundary will lift NE as a warm front overnight.
Again, shear looks to be on the low side, however, we can't rule out a strong wind gust or two.
520 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017 A weak bubble of high pressure will bring mostly sunny and warm conditions to central Illinois today. Based on forecast soundings showing a well-mixed boundary layer up to about 6500-7000ft, afternoon high temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday. Meanwhile further northwest, an approaching cold front will interact with a narrow instability axis to trigger scattered strong thunderstorms across far northern Illinois into central Iowa by late afternoon into early evening.
534 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 High pressure will maintain dry weather today until a cold front returns shower and thunderstorms chances to the area Monday. Otherwise, building surface ridging under a broad upper trough should result in dry and less humid weather today. The broad trough should shift E of the area Tue, as the cold front becomes stationary across Srn OH to WV.
High pressure will ridge across the area at the surface and aloft with deep moisture in place. Highs will reach into the lower 90s and lows will be in the 70s. Heat index values will be in the low 100s.
/issued 400 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017/ Latest water vapor imagery shows a longwave trough draped along the Mid-West with elongated upper level high pressure stretching from the Gulf of Mexico to the western Atlantic.
High pressure takes hold tonight into Monday allowing for slightly drier air to advect into the area and keeping the threat of showers or storms out of the area.
the marine layer and onshore flow will keep coastal and valley areas cooler with areas of night and morning with slow or limited clearing near the beaches this afternoon.
VFR conditions will prevail through Sunday as 500mb subtropical ridge across west Texas and 500mb ridge across the eastern Gulf of Mexico provides subsidence across the CWA. VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours as 500 mb high pressure overhead continues to provide subsidence across the area tonight through Sunday. /issued 207 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): Broad area of mid/upper level high pressure sprawling from the southwest U.
Breezy southwest flow is expected today as a pacific trough moves across the western United States. With strong high pressure developing near the Four Corners, daytime temperatures will be above normal, and those engaging in activities impacted by heat should be prepared.
210 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 Cold front exiting east.
325 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017 Early morning satellite imagery showed an amplified pattern in place across the Nation, with the broad trough to our east and ridge axis poking north over the Rockies to our west, leaving the region under the influence of a northwest flow.
330 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 Dry and mostly sunny conditions will prevail today with highs reaching the low to mid 80s. Lows tonight will drop into the low to mid 60s.
Weak frontal boundary has sagged southward into the Highway 14 corridor early this morning and will continue to sink to near our southern forecast border through early afternoon. With the front settling near the highway 20 corridor mid to late afternoon, expect convective activity to remain largely south of the forecast area. While elevated instability is good, shear looks to be pretty poor this afternoon in the highway 20 corridor. Another warm day is in store, with highs expected to be a degree or two cooler than yesterday, in the upper 70s to upper 80s.
1129 PM MDT Sat Jul 1 2017 An upper level ridge will be building over the state through tonight, but a weak disturbance will flatten the ridge Sun afternoon. Temps in the high valley areas on Sun look like they will be similar to today. Over the southeast plains, temps should be warmer than today by several degrees.
High pressure will maintain dry weather today until a cold front returns shower and thunderstorms chances Monday. Building surface ridging under broad upper troughing, and a relatively dry and capped atmosphere, should result in dry weather later tonight through Sunday.
208 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 High pressure overhead will help to make the humidity lower than the past few days. A cold front will push across the state from north to south on Monday. Rain from earlier and only weak dry air advection has led to very moist lower layers and the cooler valleys with the relatively warmer waterways in them will continue to fog up.
400 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017 An upper level trough moving across the Ohio River Valley will lift further away from the region this afternoon. At the same time, an upper high pressure will expand slightly across Texas to the north- central Gulf Coast. This drop in moisture aloft in combination with subsidence from the ridge building overhead will suppress convection most if not all of the CWA. Highs should be in the low to mid 90s. Monday and the 4th of July look to be the same as high pressure keeps the area dry in terms of rainfall. Surface dewpoints slowly creeping up into the low/mid 70s will push heat index values up slightly. Although they will not directly impact the CWA, the upper ridge that will limit convection early in the week will be weakened by those troughs.
For Sunday, typical summertime pattern across west central and southwest Florida with high pressure surface and aloft over the region.
Heading into the day today, any fog burns off with partly to mostly sunny skies in the morning giving way to building Cu by the afternoon with some scattered showers and even a few thunderstorms likely by afternoon as the next upper level disturbance moves around the base of the trough over the area.
325 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 A boundary will stall to the south through tonight and another cold front will move into the area late Monday into Monday night before stalling out and dissipating overhead on Independence Day.
For the remainder of today, plan on a warmer day with highs approaching the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.
Upper level ridging remains in place over the region, leading to a warm and dry forecast for the beginning of the week. Afternoon temperatures will remain in the lower 90s along the coast to 100 degrees across the Rio Grande Plains.
The short wave will move into eastern GA monday and will keep the highest pops over the eastern part of the CWA. Large scale pattern early in the period defined by large longwave trough over the eastern half of the CONUS with weak westerlies as far south as AL/GA/SC.
640 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 Dry and mostly sunny conditions will prevail today with highs reaching the low to mid 80s. Lows tonight will drop into the low to mid 60s.
Similar setup expected for Monday, with convection possible across the nrn third of the region, temps reaching the low to mid 90s, and heat index values during the mid to late afternoon generally 98-104 degrees.
300 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 High pressure will maintain dry weather today until a cold front returns shower and thunderstorms chances to the area Monday. Building surface ridging under a broad upper trough should result in dry and less humid weather today. The broad trough should shift E of the area Tue, as the cold front becomes stationary across Srn OH to WV.
430 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 High pressure overhead will help to make the humidity lower than the past few days. A cold front will push across the state from north to south on Monday. The lower stretch of the West Branch and most of the Main Stem Susq are not yet foggy, but the sky has just cleared out, the wind has slackened a little, and an hour and a half is left before sunrise.
644 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low northwest of Lake Superior this morning embedded in a trough across the Great Lakes region with troughing in the western U. Overall, did not make too many changes to the going forecast except went slightly warmer for this afternoon across the south with plenty of sunshine. Persistent upper troughing that that has been entrenched over the Great Lakes will shift a little further eastward with a slow increase in upper level heights across the area.
A weather disturbance is currently producing some thunderstorms across the higher terrain of southern Colorado and is expected to emerge onto the plains early this evening. 850mb temperatures warm about 7F to 11F degrees across the area supporting afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 90s.
326 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 Dry and mostly sunny conditions will prevail today with highs reaching the low to mid 80s. Lows tonight will drop into the low to mid 60s.
444 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 The subtropical ridge is well established across the western North Atlantic. Mean layer analyses indicate a couple TUTT fractures along the length of the ridge, the first is moving quickly southwest through the Bahamas. Water vapor imagery reveals very little vertical coupling between the core of this TUTT and the lower-mid troposphere. Surface analyses place the center of the high near the Azores. Nevertheless, high pressure remains unimpeded across the Atlantic, with the ridge axis stretching west across the Florida Peninsula. The subtropical ridge axis will remain draped across the Florida Peninsula through the forecast period.
As the strong surface & low-mid level ridge builds in from the Gulf of Mexico, expect convection chances to become more confined to my eastern zones. With anomalous low-mid level ridging (700mb & 850mb per ECENS/NAEFS) and low-level boundary layer temperatures, expect heat concerns to rise beginning Monday. With temperatures rising into the low-mid 90s and dewpoints approaching the mid 70s (near 75 degrees), oppressive heat stress will be an impactful issue for the July 4th holiday period.
A broad and flat upper trough will move eastward across the region on Monday morning, strengthening cooling onshore flow and deepening the marine layer enough for some drizzle on Monday morning over the interior.
Heights will rise as a strengthening ridge of high pressure builds ovr the four corners for the 4th.
342 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017 High pressure will build into the region.
A surface frontal boundary stretched from central Lake Superior through north central Wisconsin into southern South Dakota and it will continue south and east through the day with weak high pressure building in. Highs will be in the lower to middle seventies. The high will slide east with the surface flow becoming south to southeast on Monday. Highs will be in the seventies but be cooler around Lake Superior as winds become off lake. A mean trough will carve itself out over the Great Lakes and eastern United States, putting our area in between. On Monday night, high pressure will move east of the region, allowing return flow to develop ahead of low pressure moving into the Northern Plains.
323 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017 High pressure centered over southwest Missouri will drift east today and tonight. There should be plenty of sunshine today on the western side of the ridge. Expect temperatures across central and northeast Missouri into west central Illinois to be several degrees warmer today than yesterday due to the strong sunshine and increasing return flow on the back side of the ridge.
and Monday Showers and thunderstorms will continue most of today as a cold front sinks south through the western Great Lakes region. Highs today should be right around highs for yesterday as the airmass behind the cold front is only drier, not significantly cooler. Rain chances should be over by later this afternoon and certainly this evening as high pressure builds in across the western Great Lakes.
332 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017 A weak bubble of high pressure will bring mostly sunny and warm conditions to central Illinois today. Based on forecast soundings showing a well-mixed boundary layer up to about 6500-7000ft, afternoon high temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday. Meanwhile further northwest, an approaching cold front will interact with a narrow instability axis to trigger scattered strong thunderstorms across far northern Illinois into central Iowa by late afternoon into early evening.
Temperatures are generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s with dew points in the lower and middle 70s under mostly sunny skies. Current ridging remains in place through Monday, with only isolated convection and most of that likely to be in the northeast corner of the CWA.
Currently watching a weak cold front march south across central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin early this morning. The cold front then stalls out across central Iowa through northern Illinois this afternoon into this evening. Further to the north, high pressure builds in with a dry and pleasant day expected after the morning showers and storms.
654 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 High pressure overhead will help to make the humidity lower than the past few days. A cold front will push across the state from north to south on Monday. The lower stretch of the West Branch and most of the Main Stem Susq are not yet foggy, but the sky has just cleared out, the wind has slackened a little, and an hour and a half is left before sunrise.
401 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017 Broad trough located across the Great Lakes continue to progress eastward whil etransitory ridging moves into the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. At the same time the next short wave trough will move across the central Rockies as the transitory ridge flattens. Another will be the lee trough alluded to earlier further west and a mixed dry line in this vicinity as better upper level support moves in later tonight. There precip chances were trended in this fashion, then increasing through the evening west to east as storms move in from the higher terrain further west.
246 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017 Early this morning clear skies and high pressure were the name of the tune. To our south, high pressure was sliding to the south and east. This high pressure is expected to aide in the return of moisture to the area. Looking at the 00z OAX sounding, it appears that there is enough deep moisture that advection around the high pressure will be enough to bring us more moisture. The NAM is the highest with instability and would suggest a threat for severe hail.
With the entire area lying out ahead of a warm front. south southeast surface winds stretch across the region with temperatures ranging widely from the low 60s up thru the mid 70s. the region will see H5/H7 ridging building and shifting east from the central Rockies out towards the Plains region. high pressure sets up to our east with low pressure over the eastern slopes of the Rockies. Additional lift/ instability is provided by the warm front to our west southwest.