Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1031 AM MDT Tue May 26 2020 High pressure will remain in place across the region through the week. Another mild morning here in Utah and southwest Wyoming as temperatures are anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees warmer than this time yesterday.
Various high res guidance has been showing a slight uptick in development through the evening with the passage of the next disturbance rounding the low before convection simmers down overnight and through tomorrow.
Large scale subsidence will continue to spread into the area overnight on the back side of a slow moving upper level low. This upper low currently centered over North Texas will slide a bit farther to the east tomorrow. The Rolling Plains will generally be cool tomorrow in closer proximity to the upper low and expected mid level cloud cover. A weak short wave will be rotating around the low but will keep a bulk of the lift to the east of the FA.
Tomorrow will be slightly cooler than today as northwesterly winds and cold air advection kick in behind the front.
Deep layer shear is fairly weak at under 30 knots, but low level winds have been gaining an easterly component near the low and winds at 850 mb should increase this afternoon, increasing the low-level shear into the 20+ knot range. Slow moving cold front will bring more shower and storm chances Wednesday afternoon, but weakening winds aloft/weakening shear, in addition to less instability, should lessen the threat for widespread severe weather.
While southeast KS will maintain the higher rainfall chances, not expecting anything this afternoon or tonight as widespread we are seeing right now. One change from yesterdays' models run is a further north placement of the upper low. By 12z Wed, most models now have the low situated over southeast OK. ECMWF and GFS have come into much better agreement now with how the upper low will depart. So at this point confidence is high in dry conditions for the Fri-Mon time frame as we get some upper ridging building over the Plains to start the work week. A slow moving mid/upper trough over the region continues to result in widespread low clouds in MVFR/more isolated IFR, especially along and east of I-35.
359 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020 Upper low near the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex early this afternoon. Main threat in the short term will be as the main vort lobe rotates around the upper low tomorrow.
Some places may reach the low 80s. By Wednesday night a cold front starts to push into the northwest during the early morning hours.
217 PM MDT Tue May 26 2020 Cold front lays across northwestern Wyoming this afternoon.
426 PM EDT Tue May 26 2020 We are parked between upper level ridging to the east and a upper level low across the Southern Plains. The better chance of convection today has been along and west of I-75, as easterly downslope flow might be helping and location of the ridge.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 78 67 81 67 / 30 60 30 70 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 80 65 83 67 / 20 50 40 60 50 Oak Ridge, TN 65 81 64 83 67 / 30 50 40 60 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 77 63 84 64 / 10 40 50 60 40.
1106 AM CDT Tue May 26 2020 Upper low will continue approaching the area from the northwest this afternoon with scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms possible.
Maintained VCSH mention to cover this potential during the evening, and through the period given the abundant moisture, modest instability and nearby upper level low. Much of the high res guidance has come in drier today with not much rainfall showing up at all, but then the NSSL CAMs do show another round of convection popping up mainly over the wrn 1/2 of the area by late afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible again this afternoon thanks to a weak diffuse cold front moving across our area. Rain coverage should drop off somewhat this weekend as the upper level low ejects into the Ohio River Valley.
Otherwise, dry overnight with continued VFR expected as a ridge of higher pressure holds across the area. A building of the mid level ridge will occur across the Mid Atlantic and eastern Great Lakes today. As the mid level ridge centers itself off the Atlantic Coast on Wednesday, model solutions generally all agree in showing a couple weak mid level short wave impulses lifting across Lower Mi from south to north during the course of the day. A potential for a little more cloud cover will also support slightly cooler forecast highs of low to mid 80s Wed.
Temperatures reach the low 80s this afternoon, and low to mid 60s tonight. Tomorrow is a different story as the low that spins over Texas, and drifts slightly east, leaving the area under northwestern flow aloft. As high shear and vorticity propagate around the low, South Central Texas is under the threat for severe storms, yet again.
/Tonight through Tuesday/ Slowly drifting upper low will continue to plaque portions of the state with rainfall and limited severe weather for the next couple of days. The high rates are not too surprising given the moist soundings and surface dewpoints approaching 70.
401 PM EDT Tue May 26 2020 The western periphery of high pressure will extend back into the Ohio Valley through Wednesday.
Farther east, toward, HWY 63, clearer skies, have resulted in temperatures over five degrees (F) warmer and dew points approaching 70 F. 15z Surface analysis reveals the low center remains focused over the MO/KS border south of the KC Metro. Southeast surface winds will persist, with bufkit soundings suggesting rather uniform wind profiles through the low to mid levels.
GOES-16 Satellite trends place a cutoff upper level low near Wichita Falls, Texas with moisture wrapping around the upper level low into the Lower Mississippi Valley. As of 3 PM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South are in the lower 80s where rain hasn't occurred and lower 70s where rain has been more plentiful.
1204 PM MDT Tue May 26 2020 Satellite imagery shows mid to high clouds streaming over a high pressure system building over the desert Southwest. Otherwise, warm airmass advecting into the region will result in high temperatures climbing 5 to 10 degrees warmer this afternoon. A shallow trough will cross the northern Rockies Wednesday as a low pressure system swoops across southern Canada. Moisture carried along the trough axis will dip into the northern tier of the CWA Wednesday afternoon. The trough axis crosses just north of the region during peak heating, which may support the development of isolated thunderstorms across northwest Colorado and boost storm initiation over higher terrain across the western slope. Storms will dissipate shortly after sunset as the trough axis quickly exits to the east and the lack of diurnal heating weakens lapse rates.
GOES-16 satellite trends place an upper level low near Abilene, Texas this morning. /issued 325 AM CDT Tue May 26 2020/ A cut off upper level low pressure system will develop over the Southern Plains today.
1117 AM MDT Tue May 26 2020 An upper ridge will be building over the area today and will remain over the area tonight. Dry weather is expected across the area today and tonight and temps will be warmer than yesterday in most locations. Overall, confidence is on the higher side, with the main differences in the finer details.
1140 AM MDT Tue May 26 2020 18Z TAF CYCLE Upper ridge building to the west of NM, with gradually decreasing northwest to north winds aloft during the next 24 hours. Much warmer weather will begin building into New Mexico starting today as strong high pressure takes hold of the region.
Infrared and water vapor satellite imagery shows nearly stationary closed upper low meandering over SW Oklahoma at midday. Variable amounts of mid and high clouds will continue to rotate into SW KS from time to time through the short term period, on the NW periphery of the cyclone's circulation. North to northeast winds of 10-20 mph will resume daylight Wednesday, as we will remain in the cyclone's surface pressure field. West of US 83, furthest from the cyclone and its thickest clouds, expect lower 80s.
Infrared and water vapor satellite imagery shows nearly stationary closed upper low meandering over SW Oklahoma at midday. Variable amounts of mid and high clouds will continue to rotate into SW KS from time to time through the short term period, on the NW periphery of the cyclone's circulation. North to northeast winds of 10-20 mph will resume daylight Wednesday, as we will remain in the cyclone's surface pressure field. West of US 83, furthest from the cyclone and its thickest clouds, expect lower 80s. The upper level low will remain nearly stationary during the day on Wednesday. Late week the upper low over the Southern Plains will move into Arkansas and Louisiana as an upper level trough exits the Rockies and moves across the Northern and Central Plains.
Deterministic models predict the upper low over TX/SRN Plains to move slowly EWD, with associated subsidence over the CWA/MSA tonight/Wednesday.
/10/ Prior discussion below: Today through tonight: An upper low closing off over the Southern Plains will shift slowly eastward toward the ArkLaMiss region in the near term while a strong upper level ridge builds along the East Coast.
Will need to keep an eye on the storms interactions with lake breezes, but overall little shear in this light wind regime and high freezing level (arnd 13kft) will make it tough to get severe thunderstorms today. Upper low continues to rotate slowly through the southern Plains with troughing north into western Canada. The upper trough/surface boundary move slowly east reaching the western parts of Lake Superior by Wednesday night. High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal Synopsis/Forecast: Longwave troughing spanning the high plains is evolving into two separate entities, with one getting absorbed into the northern jet over southern Canada and another, more potent, piece of energy digging southeast to become a cutoff over the Arklatex region early Wednesday. Abnormally strong ridging remains over Michigan through late Wednesday.
Going into Wednesday, the upper low will be a little better positioned so that a marginal severe threat will be in place for part of the area. With the high chance of pops in place and extensive cloud cover, high temps are expected to only top out in the low 80s tomorrow.
915 AM PDT Tue May 26 2020 High pressure over the area will continue to strengthen today, keeping temperatures well above average for the deserts and inland areas.
Temps on Wednesday should be a little cooler than today with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s most locations.
216 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020 An upper low over the southern Plains will continue to push toward the area through Wednesday. Closer proximity to the low means a continued theme of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
1238 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020 A cold front moved through central Arkansas this morning and should stall in eastern parts of the state. In the upper levels, a deepening upper low was centered near the Panhandles Region of Texas and Oklahoma. As the upper low drifts/shifts toward the Red River Valley, it will continue to send troughs through the region and interact with the boundary, which should shift a little further east into Arkansas today and tonight.
A similar pattern of pop-up thunderstorms appears likely tomorrow, as southerly winds continue to advect gulf moisture northward and nebulous forcing for ascent from the low pressure system to the west of Wisconsin remains present.
In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the ern half of the U. 12z Sat with a ridge over the Rockies with a trough off the west coast. The upper pattern remains stationary through Sun and then the ridge moves out into the plains 12z Mon. The ridge then moves slowly east towards the upper Great Lakes 12z Tue. Passage of a stronger cold front later Thu will offer the potential of stronger winds in the Thu night into early Sat time frame. Fog, shifting with the prevailing winds, will continue to plague Lake Superior until the stronger cold front moves across the lake later Thu.
/This Afternoon/ Much drier air has entrained E into the region early this morning ahead of the closing upper low over NW TX/Wrn OK, with the 12Z KSHV raob depicting PW's of 1. The short term progs are in good agreement this morning with the developing closed low to our W drifting E along the Red River Valley of Cntrl/Srn OK/N TX through the afternoon, with additional drier air to the E of the low's center over ECntrl TX entraining E across much of the region today. /issued 640 AM CDT Tue May 26 2020/ A cold front associated with the upper low stalled near the vicinity of the region is pushing into the Arklamiss currently and is keeping most of the current showers confined to around MLU.
Clearing skies and light winds will be offset by the thermal ridge moving over the area, so kept lows in the 50s. Will continue to keep highs in the 80s across much of the central and southern RRV into MN, with slightly cooler temps in the Devils Lake Basin where the front will come in faster. The upper trough will continue to dig down Wednesday night, pushing the boundary further south.
The large scale pattern looks to be somewhat progressive through the longer term, with the upper trough that will be in place at the start of the period moving east and given way to ridging for the latter half of days.
Weak high pressure overhead will drift east with shifting winds out of the south for all terminals. /issued 350 AM CDT Tue May 26 2020/ An upper level trough is over the central part of the country.
Wind profiles in this area have substantial clockwise turn in the low levels and sufficient winds aloft for updraft/downdraft separation.
A weak cold front moves through the area Wednesday night. A quiet weather pattern begins to transition into Upper level trof continues to shift eastward across the eastern CONUS, while an upper level ridge begins to build across the southwest CONUS.
1233 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020 (Today and tonight) With the continued shift of the upper level cyclone eastward, precipitation chances continue to shift with it.
Skies have gone partly cloudy to mostly sunny across the region with light northwesterly or westerly flow as weak high pressure settles into the Hill Country. As the s/w over WCTX rotates around the upper low and nears SETX expect to see isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms struggle to develop for areas generally north of a Columbus to Groveton line this afternoon.
By Wednesday, the main midlevel low will begin to slowly progress northeastward as a northern stream trough begins to eject into the Northern Plains. Transitioning into Wednesday night the aforementioned midlevel low will eject to the northeast with the advancing northern stream trough.
/Issued 1106 AM CDT Tue May 26 2020/ Upper low will continue approaching the area from the northwest this afternoon with scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms possible.
259 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020 An upper low is in the process of closing off near the Red River in the vicinity of Ardmore.
/issued 333 AM CDT Tue May 26 2020/ Weak upper level low pressure system will slowly edge just east of the area for the coming 24 hours. After a chilly start this morning, temperatures will climb into the high 70s or low 80s, slightly below normal. Any showers should dissipate quickly by early this evening with another cool and dry night expected just on the back side of the weak upper low. The upper low will be to our east by tomorrow morning.
A cold front approaching the area from the NW tonight may bring some showers/wind to areas along the Canadian border this evening. For the remainder of the week, an upper low will swing through the Canadian prairies while a ridge builds into the Pacific Northwest. The cyclonic flow under the upper low will drop temperatures back closer to normal for late May for a few days before the ridge pushes east.
The omega blocking pattern will briefly transition into a rex block over the western Atlantic late in the week before finally breaking down over the weekend as the pattern across the CONUS becomes high amplitude and slightly progressive with a mean trough along the west coast of the U. , strong ridging through the plains and central Canada, and a deep trough along much of the eastern seaboard. At the surface, a weak area of low pressure along the central east coast of Florida will lift north and northeast tonight and will approach the Carolina coast on Wednesday. A broad trough will hand back across north Florida and the northeast Gulf with southwest boundary layer flow across much of the Florida peninsula.
Temperatures will continue to rise through the week as an unseasonably strong ridge of high pressure moves overhead.
145 PM PDT Tue May 26 2020 High pressure over the area will continue to strengthen today, keeping temperatures well above average for the deserts and inland areas.
224 PM MDT Tue May 26 2020 A ridge of high pressure will keep a dry and subsident airmass over the forecast area tonight. On Wednesday, the ridge will shift slightly to the south and east, as a weak disturbance moves across WY/northern CO in the afternoon. A short wave trough passing to the north of Colorado will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday evening.
Some showers may persist overnight around the Tennessee River as the upper low to our west provides a steady stream of moisture across that area. That upper low, which is positioned over Oklahoma may take a small slow wobble to the east over the next 24 to 36 hours, but isn't expected to make any big moves during that time.
We'll be keeping a close eye on an inverted trough beginning to form just southeast of the forecast area. Latest observations support this trough residing just east of Storm Lake, with model guidance indicating this front may stall along the far eastern tier of counties by mid-late afternoon. While the overall severe weather risks remains on the lower end, the greatest threat would come from a brief tornado and marginal hail. Wednesday: Wednesday again should remain dry as the forecast area remains stuck between in the weak flow between a stronger northern stream jet over the Canadian border and the upper low across Arkansas.
The culprit for all this continues to be an upper level low over Oklahoma that is cut off from the main flow. This low will remain nearly stationary over eastern Oklahoma tonight and Wednesday. With the clouds and precipitation not a lot of diurnal range in temperatures expected, with lows tonight in the low to mid 60s and highs Wednesday in the low to mid 70s.
141 PM MDT Tue May 26 2020 19z surface analysis had weak high pressure over the CWA. Looking upstream, attention turns to trough over BC/AB. It will drag a cold front through the northern plains Wednesday.
1031 PM EDT Tue May 26 2020 Currently - A surface through lower level ridge extends southwestward then westward across South Florida and the Keys. Meanwhile, broad troughing remains in place through the mid and upper levels. Short Term Update - Nearby ridging will maintain light to gentle winds, which outside of convection, will trend towards southeast to south.
Upper level high pressure continues to build offshore today, eventually shifting over the region by early Wednesday. This will lead to sunny and warmer conditions across Western Washington for the next several days.
559 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020 That weak cold front was draped across southeast Saskatchewan to near Glasgow, Montana, as of this writing. Tomorrow will be slightly cooler than today as northwesterly winds and cold air advection kick in behind the front.
648 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020 (This evening through Wednesday) Broad cut off upper low over the region will drift eastward.
724 PM EDT Tue May 26 2020 Unsettled conditions expected through the end of the week with low pressure lifting into the area on Wednesday followed by an upper trough crossing the area late in the week.
It's looking like the deep trough over the center of the country is finally going to start moving later tonight.
Diurnal convection wl ramp up again Wed as the upper low works into AR.
Strong high pressure will dominate the weather this week with above normal temperatures continuing for northern Arizona. Strong high pressure will to build across the southwest with very warm temperatures forecast through the rest of the week.
1056 PM EDT Tue May 26 2020 High pressure will maintain dry weather for the area through tomorrow night with well-above average temperature.
High pressure will remain in place across the region through the week. Afternoon satellite imagery and objective analysis show a mid level ridge centered along the California coast with a belt of westerlies extending to the north across the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies region. Meanwhile southern Utah is more under the influence of the upstream ridge, with a plume of warming 700mb air developing and eventually spreading across the area Wednesday allowing for a more substantial warming trend through midweek. The upstream ridge is forecast to develop eastward, becoming centered over the Desert Southwest and amplifying through the latter portion of the week.
540 PM MDT Tue May 26 2020 Cold front lays across northwestern Wyoming this afternoon.
617 PM EDT Tue May 26 2020 Unsettled conditions expected through the end of the week with low pressure lifting into the area on Wednesday followed by an upper trough crossing the area late in the week.
856 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020 Isolated showers continue across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this evening as an upper level low centered over northeast Texas spins over the area.
A tropical low drifts north from the Western Atlantic into the Carolinas tonight through Wednesday afternoon and a slow moving low pressure system currently over the Ozarks edges slightly east through the 24 hour period.
For the remainder of the night an upper level low over Oklahoma will drift closer to the Mississippi River likely helping to keep showers going through the night. GOES-16 Satellite trends place a cutoff upper level low near Wichita Falls, Texas with moisture wrapping around the upper level low into the Lower Mississippi Valley. As of 3 PM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South are in the lower 80s where rain hasn't occurred and lower 70s where rain has been more plentiful.
As the 500 mb closed low over the ARK/LA/TX area shifts eastwards expect a relatively dry and stable airmass to prevail over the RGV airports tonight maintaining VFR conditions. Drier air aloft wrapping around the upper low in the Arklatex region will result in quieter and rain free conditions for Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Tomorrow afternoon will be more active as a trough and its associated vorticity maxima travels over southern Colorado. Summer Like Temperatures with Flash Flooding Threat Increasing Temperatures will be heating up into the 90s across the plains during this period with showers and storms becoming a bit more widespread as moisture gets trapped under a ridge that is going to build over the region during this fcst period.
Ceilings and visibilities improve mid to late morning with near persistent conditions expected tomorrow beneath slow moving area of low pressure. /Issued 259 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020/ An upper low is in the process of closing off near the Red River in the vicinity of Ardmore.
526 PM MDT Tue May 26 2020 19z surface analysis had weak high pressure over the CWA. Looking upstream, attention turns to trough over BC/AB. It will drag a cold front through the northern plains Wednesday.
With drier air in the low-level, low cloud development is not expected and we expect VFR skies along with light winds through the overnight hours. Temperatures reach the low 80s this afternoon, and low to mid 60s tonight. Tomorrow is a different story as the low that spins over Texas, and drifts slightly east, leaving the area under northwestern flow aloft. As high shear and vorticity propagate around the low, South Central Texas is under the threat for severe storms, yet again.
High pressure will remain over the waters through the rest of the week with no headlines expected.
Drier air aloft wrapping around the upper low in the Arklatex region will result in quieter and rain free conditions for Wednesday into Wednesday night.