Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
AND ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS ON THE BACK SIDE. TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE MOIST AIR. THOUGH IT WILL BE MOVING INTO A COOLER/DRIER ENVIRONMENT AS IT COMES OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO DENVER DURING RUSH HOUR. FOR TUESDAY IT SHOULD BE DRIER AT ALL LEVELS AND A LITTLE WARMER.
311 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO THE SOUTH TODAY. COLD FRONT WILL MAIN SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. WHILE THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY BE CUT OFF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. HAVE UPPED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT THE AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE LOW CUTS OFF THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUTOFF TONIGHT ACROSS THE TN/MS VALLEY REGIONS.
405 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
A WEAK AND SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE INCOMING BROAD AND UPPER TROUGH. THE BROAD WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS FINALLY CENTERED OVER OUR AREA TOMORROW. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD TROUGH THAT IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
222 PM PDT Mon Jun 1 2015 Cooler weather continues today along with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the northern mountains. Upper level trough continues to sit over far northwestern CA and into the Pacific NW.
311 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT RAIN, DRIZZLE AND FOG TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
1046 AM PDT MON JUN 1 2015 Thunderstorm chances will increase markedly today and Tuesday as a strong upper level trough moves in from the south. Unsettled and cooler weather will persist into the remainder of the work week with a threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Impressive cape values are forecast from the Blues to the srn Panhandle today while the low level cap erodes, although sheer values are about 15-20kt.
130 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 DEFORMATION FORCING BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATIONS HAS LED TO A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. EXPECT PERSITENCE WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS BEFORE SKIES TREND TO SKC OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NE FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S /WITH COOLER READINGS NEAR LAKE HURON/.
UPPER LOW OVER WRN TN CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY EWD AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER NM BEGINS TO NOSE ITS WAY EWD. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NLY FLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO TX/OK BY MIDWEEK. ASIDE FROM SOME CI SPILLING IN OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND AFTERNOON CU. SEE TEMPS BEGIN TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND BECOMES ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE END OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
LOW PRESSURE. THIS SAME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO PULL AT LEAST SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT VORT CENTER PIVOTING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS ENSUED DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH ENHANCING LIFT AND MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY IN A TYPICALLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. CAMS ARE INDICATING AN EVEN EARLIER START TOMORROW AS THE TROUGH EDGES EVEN CLOSER.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTS OF AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND A RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS.
1241 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015 MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL TURN TO MORE OF A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THAN YESTERDAY AND GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MORNING LOWS AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ONE MORE DRY DAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
355 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PRESSED DEEP INTO THE CWA. READINGS RANGED FROM THE MID 50S IN THE BLUEGRASS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WHILE DEWPOINTS VARIED FROM THE MID 60S AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TO THE LOWER 50S WELL BEHIND IT. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PRIMARILY DEALING WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT AND DEEPENING OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS LOW AND SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG. THE BEST PCPN CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF THE LOW CENTER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE. WITH WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. A SIMILAR SET UP WILL BE PRESENT FOR EASTERN COLORADO DUE TO THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WITH A CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES GRADUALLY DEEPENING/AMPLIFYING UNTIL A CUTOFF/CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME THEY SHOW A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE DEVELOPING. HIGHS TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S RANGE WHILE THE LOW TEMPERATURES DIPS INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR THE PERIOD.
302 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE MID SOUTH TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY BUT STILL KEEP MORNING LOW CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY MID WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILDING OVER THE AREA.
324 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TO THE NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY POSITION TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. AT THE SAME TIME LOW PRESSURE IS ELONGATED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT RUNNING NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSING SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE.
230 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER PUSH EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT THAT ROLLED INTO THE AREA LAST NIGHT DID NOT MAKE IT THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT E OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW REMAINING W OF THE AREA. BRIEF DOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE LOWLANDS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
225 PM MST MON JUN 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE. THIS SAME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO PULL AT LEAST SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. EXCEPT FOR COOLER TEMPS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN UNDER CONTINUED ONSHORE WINDS.
626 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TO THE NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE IS KEEPING FAR NORTHERN MAINE DRY THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY POSITION TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. AT THE SAME TIME LOW PRESSURE IS ELONGATED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT RUNNING NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSING SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE.
This allows more moisture within the return flow to spread into the area overnight as the low level jet develops. The axis of the low level jet appears to set up over central KS and NE. These showers look to form over central KS sometime around 3-5 am, and begin to dissipate late morning as it approaches eastern KS when the low level jet weakens. Several of the high res and larger scale models support this scenario, therefore have added a slight chance pop for that period. Clouds will be tough to get rid of through tomorrow with the low level moisture advection, and boundary layer moisture distribution.
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WHICH COULD BRING SOME DRIZZLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS DUE TO REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANDRES GETTING PULLED IN WITH THE TROUGH. MARINE LYR TO HOVER IN THE 2K-3K' RANGE BEFORE ADDITIONAL DEEPING OCCURS THU WITH THE NEXT TROUGH.
104 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPLUSE SPEADS LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO. COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK. LOWERED HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS. DRIER AIR IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST.
DEEP DRY AIR IN THE LOW TO MIDLEVELS PER 01. MOS ARRIVED ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH READINGS LIMITING OUT TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. UPPER LEVEL LOW/CIRCULATION ENTERING TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY LOOKS TO REMAIN TRAPPED OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN EMBEDDED UNDERNEATH RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.
A lee trough across eastern New Mexico will spark thunderstorms this afternoon and this evening across the mountains and portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains and upper Trans Pecos region of west Texas. Isolated late afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible across the higher elevations of southeast New Mexico. /ISSUED 317 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2015/ An upper level ridge will be the main weather feature through the upcoming week, and will result in above normal temperatures and only minimal rain chances throughout. The said ridge is centered over northern Mexico, but will gradually spread eastward as another upper trough drops south along the west coast. The flow aloft will be favorable for convection to move off the higher terrain and spread into the southeast New Mexico Plains tonight.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO THROUGH TONIGHT.
330 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015 AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT IN THE MID LEVELS.
332 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 CLEARING SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
139 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT RAIN, DRIZZLE AND FOG TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
THIS DRY TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF US AND THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER RIDGING ALOFT.
541 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
300 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER PUSH EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW LINGERS MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT THAT ROLLED INTO THE AREA LAST NIGHT DID NOT MAKE IT THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT E OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW REMAINING W OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTING SHOULD KEEP US IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS. DUE TO THE NATURE OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS.
1249 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2015 A cool and cloudy morning is underway across the region, as the area largely remains under the influence of an upper low slowly spinning east across east central Arkansas. This upper low should finally move far enough east of the area by this afternoon to allow for partial clearing. The warmer readings can be expected over southeastern Kansas and western Missouri, where the opportunity for sunshine will be higher.
404 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
259 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015 259 PM CDT EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD. UNFORTUNATELY THE LAKESHORE AREAS WILL AGAIN BE KEPT COOLER BY ONSHORE FLOW.
250 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015 UPPER RIDGING. AS THIS AREA REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
332 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH CURRENTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR A CU FIELD AND CLOUD DECK ACROSS SE IA/MO. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND KEPT HIGHS A BIT WARMER BENEATH THE POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE COOLER ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
251 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACK ACROSS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THURSDAY. BRINGING A MUCH COOLER AND SHOWERY DAY TO MOST OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. COOLER AIR AND SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY WORK INTO THE NORTHWEST BY THU MORNING. RAINFALL AND LOW LVL COLD ADVECTION NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A MUCH COOLER DAY. WENT WITH A COMPROMISE AND SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE HEDGING TOWARDS THE WARMER 850 MB TEMPS BUT ADJUSTING FOR CAD AND LITTLE IF ANY SUNSHINE ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. YIELDING UPPER 60S FOR MAXES ACROSS THE RIDGES AND LOWER TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE (WARMEST READINGS LOWER SUSQ). AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING OVER THE LOWER SUSQ.
/issued 442 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2015/ A weak cold front continues to move south towards the area and should be make its way through Midland during the morning hours. The highest chances for rain today look to be along the I-10 corridor and the Davis Mountains, but could still see some scattered thunderstorms over parts of Southeast New Mexico, Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.
343 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2015 STRONG COLD FRONT SITUATED OFF TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS SE SD WITH SOME STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS NRN NE. OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL ON TRACK TO BE COOLER DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO IA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT BOOSTING INSTABILITY. THIS WILL LEAD INTO A DECIDED AIRMASS CHANGE WITH COOLER DRIER WEATHER. RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY WITH WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH. THE AFOREMENTIONED JET TO OUR NORTH WILL EVENTUALLY STRENGTHEN AND BUCKLE LEADING TO SOME DEGREE OF WRN CONUS TROUGHING. AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROP THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
644 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015 SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE WEST VIRGINIA/MARYLAND RIDGES. A PASSING SHOWER COULD REMAIN IN THE WV/MD RIDGES THURSDAY EVENING.
220 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2015 The cold front has pushed through most of the CWA and is currently just south of the Pecos River. The highest POPS for this afternoon and evening will be along the Lower Trans Pecos and the higher terrain. The upper trough that is centered over southern Canada will begin to deepen over the Upper Midwest on Thursday. Precipitation will once again be possible Thursday mainly across the higher terrain and Big Bend region.
THE ENVIORNMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY WARM AND MOIST AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S. A COLD FRONT LIED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PROUDCING BRIEF BUT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS IN THE AREA. HI-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND 12Z SPC WRF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE HIGHEST CHANCES NOW THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AND TROUGH NEAR MEMPHIS WILL TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL TN TO SOUTHEAST KY OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL IN THE LOW 80S.
Weather pattern across the Central US starting to take a shift as large scale upper low across south central Canada continues to usher cooler air southward into the northern States. Wettest period of the extended periods is early on, mainly Thursday afternoon and night, and there remain some differences in handling of the weak upper wave and stronger cold front.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. ALOFT AN UPPER TROF IS DIGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND NO MID OR UPPER RIDGE SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING SINCE MID MORNING. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH PAST SUNSET, HOWEVER AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF APPROACHES AND A BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH DRIFTS IN, RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. WITH NEAR 2" PWAT AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROF LINGERING OVER THE REGION THU RAIN WILL BE LIKELY.
255 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015 A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. DROPPED HIGHS QUITE A BIT THURSDAY AND WENT COOLER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS WE WON'T HAVE AS FAR TO FALL WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE. CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH AND COLD CORE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A DEVELOPING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH INDUCES SOME RIDGING OVER OUR REGION.
505 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACK ACROSS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THURSDAY. BRINGING A MUCH COOLER AND SHOWERY DAY TO MOST OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. COOLER AIR AND SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY WORK INTO THE NORTHWEST BY THU MORNING. RAINFALL AND LOW LVL COLD ADVECTION NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A MUCH COOLER DAY. WENT WITH A COMPROMISE AND SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE HEDGING TOWARDS THE WARMER 850 MB TEMPS BUT ADJUSTING FOR CAD AND LITTLE IF ANY SUNSHINE ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. YIELDING UPPER 60S FOR MAXES ACROSS THE RIDGES AND LOWER TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE (WARMEST READINGS LOWER SUSQ). AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING OVER THE LOWER SUSQ.
THE HIGHEST POPS TOMORROW WILL BE ORIENTED SOUTH/EAST OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN INTO THE PLATEAU. WHILE THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS, MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND.
123 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015 AVIATION SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA. THAT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH MANY NORTHERN AREAS HAVING LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE FORTIES.
300 PM PDT WED SEP 9 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ALOFT.
A COOL THURSDAY IS FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
323 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015 CLOUDY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL PERSIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF COLORADO THROUGH SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ISENTROPIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A LOW POP ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING AS WELL. SOME MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BUT MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. POPS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH.
AS THE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE US CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.
208 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THIS FRONT BY THURSDAY.
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY.
305 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2015 12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB TROF RUNNING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTH TEXAS. A MESO HIGH WAS ACROSS WESTERN IOWA WHILE A STRONG 850MB COLD FRONT RAN FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO MONTANA. 18Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH A COLD FRONT FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE MAIN COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ADVANCING THROUGH. THUS LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST SEEM A GOOD FIT.
/ISSUED 331 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2015/ COOLER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS CLOSER TO THE 700 MB MOISTURE AXIS AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE COOLER JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY AND WARMER WITH READINGS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BUT STILL COOLER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
427 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WHICH IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL LINGER ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS.
MEDIUM HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS LINGERS INTO THIS EVENING. SO PREFER THE ECMWF SUGGESTING SOME PRECIP WITH LEADING CVA AND SURFACE/850 TROUGH BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT.
DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL ERODE THE UPPER HIGH OVER FL RESULTING IN FALLING HEIGHTS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS. ATLC RIDGE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH FL WILL PRODUCE A SW FLOW STRONG ENOUGH TO DELAY THE SEA BREEZE BUT NOT PREVENT IT FROM DEVELOPING. COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS. AND INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH/CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PORTEND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE VIGOR AND COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON.
FROST REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND A RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SURFACE BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL S/WV IMPULSE. COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BY THIS EVENING. AS THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST.