Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Saturday will be a duplication with many highs in the 60s and 70s with some 50s in the higher elevations.
404 AM EDT Fri Mar 25 2022 Low pressure over the Great Lakes will bring some scattered showers to the region today. It will remain chilly with highs only into the lower to middle 40s.
Another upper low center was tracking southeast across western Tennessee. Temperatures will be a little cooler today with highs in the lower to middle 60s north and upper 60s to around 70 south.
A mix of sun and clouds is expected through this evening as upper closed low lifts northeastward from the southern Ohio River Valley. A weak front is expected to pass overnight as this low exits to the northeast, starting the trend toward cooler temperature. Meager column moisture and poor positioning with respect to upper support should maintain generally dry weather, though an isolated shower may develop over the higher terrain and eastern OH. More widespread precipitation will develop along/ahead of its sfc cold front, though enough warm/moist advection in SW flow ahead of the system should maintain rain p-type outside of the highest terrain where a rain/snow mix is expected. The low is progged to transition overhead during the day Saturday, with its cold core continuing to promote shower activity.
Parent upper low over ne MO will dig into the wrn TN valley late tonight as lead disturbance over se IN kicks newd. As this occurs, and within residual mid level moisture plume within upper trough axis splitting the lakes, expect diurnal showers will further bloom this aftn cntrl zones. Unseasonable cold continues into Mon but with some moderation emerging then downstream of renewed deep wrn trough taking shape. Otherwise, gusty west-southwest winds pick up later today behind a low pressure system that will bring rain/snow to the area late this afternoon into the overnight hours-so after perhaps some improvement in conditions between 15-18/21z expect a return to mid/low-end MVFR or IFR ceilings.
Latest 07z surface analysis shows weak warm front over central Minnesota. Snowfall amounts looks to be less than an inch of snow with the higher snow amounts over north central Wisconsin.
Northwesterly flow aloft will continue in the short term as a longwave upper trough continues to slide eastward over the eastern third of the CONUS and an upper ridge builds over the southwest. Today, primary uncertainty comes in the form of the arrival of a cold front ushered southward by a strong northern stream wave currently located over the Red River of the North.
It is actually a good bit warmer for NE TX and Shreveport and we have loaded in latest obs, but no changes needed to expected lows as forecast is looking right on track.
An upper level trough continues to shift east across the Dakotas this morning, keeping dry Northwest flow aloft over the region. This northwest will persist today with upper level ridging building in from the west this evening through Saturday. Winds will be lighter today, with surface flow turning easterly, which should help keeps temps a bit cooler than yesterday. Dry conditions will prevail through Saturday, as ridge builds. Temps will be a few degrees warmer Saturday, with more influence of the upper level ridge, but will be stifled by persist easterly surface winds.
248 AM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022 A deep trough is affecting the eastern CONUS this morning with a ridge anchored over the west. Surface pressure falls over the Mid-South are limited but are running opposite of typical diurnal trends, so this does look to be a weak surface reflection of the trough. A more potent trough is moving through the Prairie Provinces at this time with the attendant cold front in the Central Plains. This front will move through the Mid-South this evening, bringing slightly cooler and drier air into the region for the weekend. Highs will range from the upper 50s in the TN Valley to the lower 60s across the remainder of the area, dropping into the upper 30s and lower 40s tonight.
(Today through Saturday afternoon) With the upper trough responsible for the gusty winds the past few days firmly out of the area, gorgeous weather will ensue with upper ridging dominating the short term period. Thickness will be increasing over our region today and tomorrow as this ridge builds across the west. This, along with clear skies and light southerly surface winds, will promote temperatures today around 10 degrees above normal in the low 80s. On Saturday, the ridge axis will set up over the CA/AZ border, warming us to the upper 80s and low 90s.
An upper low moving overhead will bring in more low and mid level clouds this morning.
1102 PM MDT Thu Mar 24 2022 The weak cold front has made it slightly further south than earlier anticipated. Temperatures will likely hover around the freezing mark overnight, so with the light precipitation, we could see a light rain/snow mix for the northern zones at times through sunrise Friday. The higher wind gusts have been mostly observed across SE Wyoming and across the far southern NE Panhandle. Outside of the winds, the overall weather looks quiet as a large upper level ridge builds across much of the Interior West.
McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 41 59 34 59 / 0 10 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 39 55 31 55 / 20 30 20 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 55 38 55 31 55 / 10 30 20 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 36 48 29 49 / 30 50 50 10 0.
400 AM EDT Fri Mar 25 2022 A weak cold front will slide east and offshore this morning. Cooler, breezy and mainly dry weather is expected this weekend apart from isolated showers on Saturday. A weak cold front is currently working eastward through central/eastern VA early this morning and will push offshore by late this morning. Fair to partly cloudy and cooler tonight. For Saturday, a weakening upper trough and sfc cold front crosses the area. However, with the upper low crossing just to our north, expecting increasing clouds and some light rain showers to be possible, especially for the northern half of the CWA. Breezy and cooler with highs 55-60.
Expect cooler drier air to filter into the region Friday and Saturday, under breezy conditions.
1050 PM MDT Thu Mar 24 2022 The short term forecast is dominated by the building H5 ridge across the western half of the US. Strong ridging will be in place for the weekend, making for warm and dry conditions across the area.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): A mid-level ridge of high pressure continues to build across Deep South Texas into this weekend, with a deep warm and dry air mass.
Rain or snow showers will persist through the afternoon as the deepening upper trough/low moves through the region. Snowfall accumulations will range from 1-2 inches in north central WI to little or nothing in NE/EC WI, where temperatures will be warmer and precipitation will fall as a rain/snow mix (or even possibly all rain).
425 AM EDT Fri Mar 25 2022 Discussion -- Today into Saturday Morning -- Patches of drizzle or light snow are floating through the area this morning, a product of lift and low-level saturation below 5,000 feet with the cloud layer out of the DGZ and warmer than -10 C. Precipitation associated with the cold front mid/late afternoon will start off as rain, but will change over to snow showers from northwest to southeast as the evening goes on. Areas of wet snow accumulation on grass and bridges/overpasses late in the evening may trend toward more frozen/icy snow accumulation on bridges/overpasses after midnight as temperatures drop below 32.
Although skies have taken longer than expected to clear up and for temperatures to drop, it should feel cooler and a lot nicer (compared to yesterday) as you step outside this morning. Cloud coverage and some light showers continue to be support by upper level low over the Southeast that continues to slowly make its way east to northeast of the Florida Peninsula. The actual front though is now south of our CWA and behind it, breezy north to northwest winds, cooler morning temperatures, and very dry conditions are anticipated through the weekend.
Today through Saturday Northwest flow aloft will continue over the Cowboy State today, as an upper ridge rebuilds over ID and the Canadian Rockies.
Showers were located ahead of the upper trough axis over northeast Florida and coastal southeast Georgia early this morning. A surface cold front will push through the area from the west this afternoon and evening. Highs today will be in the low to mid 70s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 40s across interior southeast Georgia, the upper 40s across interior northeast Florida and the lower 50s for the coastal locations and along the St.
Radar imagery showed some light returns over western Nebraska, but dry air in the low levels was preventing much of it from reaching the ground, though there were a few spots reporting light rain/sprinkles.
Increasing sunshine and warmer temperatures through the weekend.
Any cold air advection in the lower troposphere will be offset by late March direct insolation such that afternoon temperatures should still reach lower 60s just about everywhere across southwest Kansas.
A secondary frontal trough will bring some Few/scattered Cu/Strato-cu clouds in the 040-050 KFT range to the terminals between 19-00Z as it moves through the area, with mainly clear skies expected thereafter. Although skies have taken longer than expected to clear up and for temperatures to drop, it should feel cooler and a lot nicer (compared to yesterday) as you step outside this morning. Cloud coverage and some light showers continue to be support by upper level low over the Southeast that continues to slowly make its way east to northeast of the Florida Peninsula. The actual front though is now south of our CWA and behind it, breezy north to northwest winds, cooler morning temperatures, and very dry conditions are anticipated through the weekend.
551 AM MDT Fri Mar 25 2022 12Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours with clear skies and relatively light winds as a ridge of high pressure builds west of New Mexico.
Temps trend 10-20F colder over the west-central Alleghenies while bouncing 5-10F warmer in the lower Susquehanna Valley. Today will be the warmest day out of the next 4 with highs in the low 40s NW to upper 50s SE. Despite a steady dose of CAA, expect clouds and gusty winds to provide a floor for minTs with lows around the low 30s/40s.
Weak high pressure aloft early today will give way to the next frontal system that will reach the area late tonight, ushering in the next round of precipitation chances.
537 AM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022 A cold front is presently pushing across the CWA early this morning, and observations are indicating northwesterly winds beginning to pick up with strong cold air advection behind the front. The deep mixing will allow afternoon dew points to fall into the teens to lower 20s - which is supported by soundings and HREF ensembles - and with temperatures in the lower to mid 50s over the western half of the CWA, afternoon RH values will drop to 15 to 25 percent over that area.
/issued 248 AM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022/ A deep trough is affecting the eastern CONUS this morning with a ridge anchored over the west. Surface pressure falls over the Mid-South are limited but are running opposite of typical diurnal trends, so this does look to be a weak surface reflection of the trough. A more potent trough is moving through the Prairie Provinces at this time with the attendant cold front in the Central Plains. This front will move through the Mid-South this evening, bringing slightly cooler and drier air into the region for the weekend. Highs will range from the upper 50s in the TN Valley to the lower 60s across the remainder of the area, dropping into the upper 30s and lower 40s tonight.
426 AM MDT Fri Mar 25 2022 The ridge of high pressure aloft will amplify over the Western US in the coming days leaving our area in northwest flow. Pockets of moisture have been traversing through the ridge, which have resulted in occasional orographic cirrus and midlevel stratus. Therefore did very little adjustments to the highs and lows for today through tomorrow night. Wind speeds will increase with elevation as the pressure gradient has not completely relaxed at our location under the ridge. As the ridge builds just to our west warm advection will continue and allow temps to climb. If the cloud cover becomes more expansive it could keep conditions a few degrees cooler than the current forecast.
541 AM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022 A cold front will push through the TAF sites during the morning. Northwesterly flow aloft will continue in the short term as a longwave upper trough continues to slide eastward over the eastern third of the CONUS and an upper ridge builds over the southwest. Today, primary uncertainty comes in the form of the arrival of a cold front ushered southward by a strong northern stream wave currently located over the Red River of the North.
/issued 312 AM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): A mid-level ridge of high pressure continues to build across Deep South Texas into this weekend, with a deep warm and dry air mass.
1023 AM EDT Fri Mar 25 2022 A cold front pushed through the Florida Keys overnight. Accumulating rains fell on most island communities, and portions of the Lower and Upper Keys probably heard a few rumbles of thunder. Temperatures are pinned in the lower 70s currently, under mostly cloudy skies.
303 AM MDT Fri Mar 25 2022 The ridge of high pressure aloft will amplify over the Western US in the coming days leaving our area in northwest flow. Pockets of moisture have been traversing through the ridge, which have resulted in occasional orographic cirrus and midlevel stratus. Therefore did very little adjustments to the highs and lows for today through tomorrow night. Wind speeds will increase with elevation as the pressure gradient has not completely relaxed at our location under the ridge. As the ridge builds just to our west warm advection will continue and allow temps to climb. If the cloud cover becomes more expansive it could keep conditions a few degrees cooler than the current forecast.
403 AM MDT Fri Mar 25 2022 A weak upper level system and associated cold front are moving across northeast Colorado at this time with scattered showers across the far northeast plains. The surface cold front will be shifting winds more east and northeast through the rest of the night. Impact of this system will be cooler temperatures today, especially over the far northeast plains where 700mb temperatures drop around 2 degrees C from yesterday. Meanwhile, upper level ridge of high pressure will begin to rebuild over the Northern Rockies and Great Basin with a moderate northwest flow pattern over Colorado.
519 AM MDT Fri Mar 25 2022 Current surface analysis shows cold front well south and east of the region, but relatively tight pressure gradient still in place across the area is resulting in brisk winds early this morning to the east and southeast of the Black Hills.
For this morning, clouds and even an isolated rain shower have made keeping up with the temperatures difficult, specifically with overnight lows being warmer than expected in our western counties. Currently, there is broad upper level ridging over the western CONUS and an area of low pressure dropping southeast out of Manitoba toward the Great Lakes region.
Record setting warmth is likely over the next couple of days as a strong ridge of high pressure remains over the region.
632 AM EDT Fri Mar 25 2022 A weak cold front will slide east and offshore by late this morning. Cooler, breezy and mainly dry weather is expected this weekend apart from isolated showers on Saturday. A weak cold front is currently working eastward through central/eastern VA and will push offshore by late this morning. Fair to partly cloudy and cooler tonight. For Saturday, a weakening upper trough and sfc cold front crosses the area. However, with the upper low crossing just to our north, expecting increasing clouds and some light rain showers to be possible, especially for the northern half of the CWA. Breezy and cooler with highs 55-60.
Ridging with NW flow aloft will continue today, maintaining high temperatures and clear skies. High pressure will continue moving off to the east on Saturday, with southerly winds bringing in warmer air from Mexico.
703 AM EDT Fri Mar 25 2022 Low pressure over the Great Lakes will bring some scattered showers to the region today. It will remain chilly with highs only into the lower to middle 40s.
The northerly winds will help temper the warmup some today, though temperatures are still expected to be warmer that yesterday, ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s across the CWA.
538 AM MDT Fri Mar 25 2022 A weak upper level system and associated cold front are moving across northeast Colorado at this time with scattered showers across the far northeast plains. The surface cold front will be shifting winds more east and northeast through the rest of the night. Impact of this system will be cooler temperatures today, especially over the far northeast plains where 700mb temperatures drop around 2 degrees C from yesterday. Meanwhile, upper level ridge of high pressure will begin to rebuild over the Northern Rockies and Great Basin with a moderate northwest flow pattern over Colorado.
716 AM EDT Fri Mar 25 2022 Aviation -- Today into Saturday Morning -- Patches of drizzle or light snow are floating through the area this morning, a product of lift and low-level saturation below 5,000 feet with the cloud layer out of the DGZ and warmer than -10 C. Precipitation associated with the cold front mid/late afternoon will start off as rain, but will change over to snow showers from northwest to southeast as the evening goes on. Areas of wet snow accumulation on grass and bridges/overpasses late in the evening may trend toward more frozen/icy snow accumulation on bridges/overpasses after midnight as temperatures drop below 32.
951 AM EDT Fri Mar 25 2022 Current surface analysis shows the cold front is at the tip of the Florida Peninsula, and is expected to clear the Florida peninsula by early afternoon. Forecast remains on track, with cooler drier air being filtered into the area by NW flow. Post- frontal NW flow will continue to advect cooler/drier air across the area, resulting in a dry and comfortable day with increasing sunshine from NW-SE and max temps in the U70s.
443 AM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022 For this morning, clouds and even an isolated rain shower have made keeping up with the temperatures difficult, specifically with overnight lows being warmer than expected in our western counties. Currently, there is broad upper level ridging over the western CONUS and an area of low pressure dropping southeast out of Manitoba toward the Great Lakes region.
Record high temperatures still look likely today and Saturday as strong high pressure builds over the region. This pattern will be short lived however as a low pressure system moves into the region from the Pacific.
A cold front ran from the arrowhead of Minnesota to the ND/SD border.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): 500 mb ridging will build eastwards throughout the weekend maintain warm and rainfree conditions across the RGV area. As surface ridging moves eastwards the low level flow will shift around from the S-SE and increasing the WAA and low level dewpoints. The lower atms layers may moisten up enough by Sat Night to allow for some sct clds to form. The ECMWF remains the warmest of the 3 models with the NAM and GFS coming in cooler for the RGV.
250 PM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022 Troughing to our east and ridging to our west, with northwesterly upper flow across the area. At the surface, a skinny high pressure ridge from the Canadian Prairie Provinces to the Texas-Louisiana border. Mid-afternoon temperatures in the lower and middle 70s across the area with dew points generally in the middle 30s, producing relative humidities near 25 percent.
Light winds and the clear sky associated with the high, combined with continued cold air advection, will allow for efficient radiational cooling.
245 PM MDT Fri Mar 25 2022 Strengthening H5 ridging across the western US continues to bring much above normal temps to western WY trough the short term period. Gradient also increases across the state, allowing southwest flow to increase for the higher elevations and the Wind Corridor from KRKS to KCPR.
106 PM EDT Fri Mar 25 2022 A series of crossing disturbances will produce rain turning to snow showers through the weekend, with accumulating snow likely in the higher terrain. Precipitation chances will increase ahead of this boundary, though enough warm advection in SW flow ahead of the low should maintain a rain p-type with this initial push. Initial accumulations of snow will be limited to the higher terrain and likely solely on grassy areas given pre-event sfc road temperatures. Outside of the higher terrain, locations that do see snow will struggle to see accumulations given warm sfc air and lack of ideal DGZ moisture.
Dry northwest flow will persist over the area as longwave trough axis shifts eastward through Saturday. Have trended dew points to the low end of guidance to capture realistic expectation.
This low will reinforce a strong northwest wind flow across our region. On Saturday night, lows will fall below freezing across parts of our region. Impacts will depend on how far below freezing temps fall.
A weak cold front is turning winds to the northeast this morning with some breezy conditions possible. Northwesterly flow aloft will continue in the short term as a longwave upper trough continues to slide eastward over the eastern third of the CONUS and an upper ridge builds over the southwest. Today, primary uncertainty comes in the form of the arrival of a cold front ushered southward by a strong northern stream wave currently located over the Red River of the North.
346 PM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022 Quiet weather is expected through the short term as strong upper level ridging builds across the western US. Moderate warm air advection will allow for daytime highs to rise into the 50s tomorrow with some locations across southwest Nebraska reaching the low 60s.
But, temps should remain below climatic normals, as overnight lows will fall into the low to mid 40s areawide.
A cold front was dropping southeast into IL and MO and will arrive this evening. A tight surface pressure gradient will persist behind the cold front on Saturday resulting in another gusty day. After sunset, winds should subside with a narrow ridge axis building southeast into the area.
352 PM EDT Fri Mar 25 2022 A series of crossing disturbances will produce rain turning to snow showers through the weekend, with accumulating snow likely in the higher terrain. Precipitation chances will increase ahead of this boundary, though enough warm advection in SW flow ahead of the low should maintain a rain p-type with this initial push. Initial accumulations of snow will be limited to the higher terrain and likely solely on grassy areas given pre-event sfc road temperatures. Outside of the higher terrain, locations that do see snow will struggle to see accumulations given warm sfc air and lack of ideal DGZ moisture.
The progressive northwesterly flow pattern will continue again during the day on Saturday, with another deeper trough digging southward across the entire eastern CONUS. Another cold front will push through Central Alabama during the morning hours on Saturday. Cold air advection and gusty northwest winds will push cooler air southward, but with full sunshine the air mass should be able to modify into the mid and upper 60s.
Cloudy and breezy conditions expected the rest of today with a low pressure system overhead. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 59 34 58 36 / 10 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 38 55 31 55 33 / 20 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 38 55 30 55 32 / 20 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 35 49 28 49 26 / 40 20 10 0 0.
A ridge of high pressure continues its dominates of the West Coast as near record high temperatures will be possible this afternoon. Yet, the ability of having temperatures reaching record levels is coming to an end as 24 hour trends have been slightly cooler.