Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1210 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022 (The rest of tonight) Cold front stretches from southeast MO across north central AR down into the ArkLaTex and DFW Metroplex, and will continue to slide east into tonight. Lacy (Tomorrow through Saturday) Settled but cool conditions will prevail Sunday with weak high pressure in control.
420 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022 Today through tonight: A cold front currently extends from Northwest Mississippi into northeast Louisiana. Expect thunderstorms to develop once again by early afternoon, with the bulk of the activity along and east of the Highway 55 corridor. Expect cooler highs today ranging from the mid 70s in the Delta, to the mid 80s across the Pine Belt.
A cold front is slowly moving through the region and much cooler temps will be in store for today.
339 AM PDT Sun May 22 2022 An upper level trough is currently traversing easter Oregon and high pressure is starting to build in it's wake.
With low-level Gulf moisture surging northward across the Plains ahead of mid- level troughing, some degree of upstream convection is anticipated.
915 AM EDT Sun May 22 2022 A chance for showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue ahead of a cold front that moves through the region this morning. In the wake of the front drier and cooler conditions will filter into the area heading into Monday.
Evening and early overnight convection is winding down as the cold front pushes ever so closer to Middle TN and is forecast to move through the area during the day. This is a true "cold" front for early summer and afternoon high temperatures today will be noticeable cooler as only in the 70s to around 80. This front will stall southeast of the mid state and meander northward on Monday as a warm front.
735 AM EDT Sun May 22 2022 A chance for showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue ahead of a cold front that moves through the region this morning. In the wake of the front drier and cooler conditions will filter into the area heading into Monday.
A broad area of low pressure will stay positioned just to the north of the region over the next few days, keeping temperatures near normal while skies remain generally clear.
This is warmer than the 50th percentile NBM but a hair cooler than the guidance blend. The models show a sharp drop in midlevel moisture Monday evening as the upper low lifts into SD.
Did not include TSRA in the forecast for KAPF due to the low probability of occurrence. The pattern certainly becomes more complicated as a trough approaches and pins the ridge of high pressure back into the Atlantic. With the southeasterly flow, diminished convection, ridge adiabatic warming, and plenty of sun despite clouds, temperatures will be free to spike up each day with highs ranging from Atlantic- breeze- cooled upper 80s along the coast to mid 90s in Southwest Florida and adjacent inland areas.
A cold front will move across the area through the day, with showers/thunderstorms affecting all TAF sites through much of the period. /15/ Today through tonight: A cold front currently extends from Northwest Mississippi into northeast Louisiana. Expect thunderstorms to develop once again by early afternoon, with the bulk of the activity along and east of the Highway 55 corridor. Expect cooler highs today ranging from the mid 70s in the Delta, to the mid 80s across the Pine Belt.
This will bring an end to warmer than normal temperatures. Another area to be watch for thunderstorm development will be the Blue Ridge where deep moist convergence will promote development of thunderstorms along the Blue Ridge Parkway. The thunderstorms which develop along the Blue Ridge should morph into loosely organized multicellular clusters, the outflow of which would be a concern for damaging wind gusts. Lows will stay elevated though could be cooler north of I-64 with mid to upper 50s, with most experiencing lower to mid 60s. On Monday a frontal boundary slowly settles to our south while it pushes against ridging off the southeast coast.
Current surface analysis shows slow moving NE-SW oriented cold front is located just to the NW of our area, extending from northwest OH into east-central IN then along the Ohio River through western KY. Otherwise expect mostly dry conditions with lows in the lower to mid 50s. Monday and Monday night a dome of high pressure will travel from the Great Lakes to the St Lawrence Valley providing us with cool northeast breezes. High temperatures Monday will be several degrees cooler than normal around 70 with lows that night right about where they should be at this time of year in the middle to upper 50s.
Given the continued warm bias kept temperatures just short of 90 in most areas, slightly warmer in the Augusta Metro. Lows will be just short of 70, warmer than average for late May. Upper ridge centered to the east of Florida with southwest flow aloft continuing across the region. A mid level short wave trough will be approaching the region from north Ga in the afternoon and evening. Given the high precipitable water, training along frontal focus and upper level support this seems reasonable.
Monday will feature dry northeasterly flow, with some sunshine returning helping to boost temperatures into the low 70s after a chilly start to the day in the lower half of the 50s.
By the middle of this week, temperatures will be on the rise again and folks can expect upper 90s to low 100 degree temps for the lower deserts through late in the week.
Until then, look for a benign day on Sunday with cooler conditions continuing.
An upper level trough is currently traversing easter Oregon and high pressure is starting to build in it's wake.
Today Through Monday Night A cold front continues to drop SE across the SERN half of the state early this Sun morning. with cooler and drier air settling into the state. A warm front will attempt to lift back north on Mon into Mon night.
This low will trek southeastward throughout the day reaching southwest Montana this afternoon.
This will bring an end to warmer than normal temperatures. The pre-frontal trough will have more to work with in terms of instability, though low clouds this morning may slow that down.
As southerly flow develops overnight (under increasing cigs) temps will bottom out about 15 degrees warmer than they're expected to this morning. They'll still be cooler than seasonal norms.
As low-level Gulf moisture surges northward across the Plains ahead of mid- level troughing, some degree of upstream convection is anticipated.
A cold and dry area of high pressure was making its way into the region overnight. With the cold airmass and cloud cover, most areas will fall into the middle to upper 40s this morning though areas around West Plains and southeast should linger in the lower 50s thanks to the continued cloud cover. The area of western extent of the high pressure will remain over the area tonight allowing for quiet conditions and another night of temperatures in the middle 40s. The upper level flow will become southwesterly as an upper level trough digs into the desert southwest.
Sprawling high pressure was centered in the central Plains providing clear to partly cloudy skies across the dvn cwa. Today and Tonight: Pleasant weather as high pressure from the west settles over the area. Highs will be mainly in the lower to mid 60s with lows generally in the lower 40s.
Currently, a long line of showers and thunderstorms associated with a cold front is racing towards the coast. Overcast skies will lead to daytime highs in the mid-80s south of Huntsville and daytime highs in the low 80s north of Huntsville. This front will begin to lift back north late tonight through tomorrow as a warm front, continuing our rain chances for Southeast Texas. Daytime highs will reach the mid 80s again on Monday while overnight lows hover in the low 70s.
348 AM MDT Sun May 22 2022 Freeze Warnings remain in effect across southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle this morning as sub-freezing temperatures are being observed for most sites as of the top of the hour. Only other weather hazard to watch in the short term will be another chance for freezing temperatures late this spring as 700mb temperatures continue to hover around 2-4C below zero.
Temperatures slowly trend warmer over the next few days while weather remains dry and breezy before the pattern becomes more active toward the end of the week. Today through Monday night Mainly dry and breezy conditions continue today across the CWA with afternoon highs still on the cooler side in the 60s. Afternoon highs should be a little bit warmer in the upper 60s and 70s for most.
A cold and dry area of high pressure was making its way into the region overnight. With the cold airmass and cloud cover, most areas will fall into the middle to upper 40s this morning though areas around West Plains and southeast should linger in the lower 50s thanks to the continued cloud cover. The area of western extent of the high pressure will remain over the area tonight allowing for quiet conditions and another night of temperatures in the middle 40s. The upper level flow will become north southwesterly as an upper level trough digs into the desert southwest.
251 AM MST Sun May 22 2022 A broad area of low pressure will stay positioned just to the north of the region over the next few days, keeping temperatures near normal while skies remain generally clear.
519 AM MDT Sun May 22 2022 Broad upper trough remains across much of NOAM, with anomalously cold air over much of the northern CONUS. Mostly sunny skies and warmer temps on track today, although clouds will begin to increase west-east this afternoon. A ridge of high pressure will then build over the Rockies and push east toward the later half of the week, supporting much warmer and mainly dry weather.
Temperatures were running just a few degrees warmer than forecast since cloud cover has scattered out. A cold front will move east today while solar insolation continues to destabilize the atmosphere amidst moisture pooling along the front. Near term guidance suggests temperatures in the lower 80s along with dewpoints in the 60s should contribute to CAPEs between 1-2k J/Kg. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 65 76 64 80 / 80 80 90 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 63 74 63 79 / 70 70 90 40 40 Oak Ridge, TN 83 62 73 62 79 / 70 60 80 20 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 61 74 59 78 / 70 60 90 70 40.
the highest amounts are over Gulf waters well offshore the FL west coast with lesser amounts over the state. 9 inches with the higher amounts favoring the north and interior.
302 AM MDT Sun May 22 2022 MORNING DISCUSSION: Temperatures will begin to warm up today as a ridge sets up over our area.
Temperatures range from the low to mid 30s over areas without cloud-cover to the mid 40s over areas that are cloudy. Temperatures are expected to be flipped on Monday, with the warmer readings across the north/east forecast zones where more sun than clouds is anticipated, at least during the first half of the day, and cooler cloud/precipitation influenced temperatures across the southwestern third of the CWA. Monday night, some continued light precip is possible though not probable east of the Missouri River as a low pressure system tracks through the region.
824 AM MDT Sun May 22 2022 Satellite imagery shows weak upper low moving slowly thru western/central MT this morning. Expecting a little warmer day today, despite the cold start, with rising mid level heights. Low freezing levels (7500-8000 feet) will lead to some instability as low levels warm up. Temperatures should be able to reach the lower to mid 60s, which is still below seasonal norms, but getting closer.
High pressure dominating the western north Atlantic ridged west through the Georgia coast, maintaining moderate to fresh east- southeast winds. From synopsis, high pressure centered just to the southwest of Bermuda will maintain fresh east to southeast breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys through at least mid week.
Should have no problem reaching forecasted highs or maybe even a couple degrees warmer than current forecast. Temperatures range from the low to mid 30s over areas without cloud-cover to the mid 40s over areas that are cloudy. Temperatures are expected to be flipped on Monday, with the warmer readings across the north/east forecast zones where more sun than clouds is anticipated, at least during the first half of the day, and cooler cloud/precipitation influenced temperatures across the southwestern third of the CWA. Monday night, some continued light precip is possible though not probable east of the Missouri River as a low pressure system tracks through the region.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed an area of high pressure located over east-central SD with a ridge stretched northward through central MN. High pressure to then build across WI and the loss of daytime heating will bring a decrease in clouds through the late evening and overnight. As the high pressure drifts to our east on Monday, winds will turn to the south across central WI, east-southeast over eastern WI.
106 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022 A cold front crosses to the mountains this afternoon and evening, with storms expected through midnight. Generally increased precipitation chances across the region using a blend toward the higher resolution NAMnest. Meanwhile, high pressure passing to the north will bring drier air into the rest of the area.
Upper lever high pressure remains locked over south Florida/Bahamas with several weak short waves moving through the upper level flow across GA. GFS/ECMWF in OK agreement with some differences noted in the surface solution and how fast the surface cold front will progress through the area. Temperatures will trend cooler through the short term and a blend of guidance temperatures looks reasonable.
Cliff MORNING DISCUSSION: Temperatures will begin to warm up today as a ridge sets up over our area.
354 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022 Heat and humidity linger through this evening away from the coast before a cold front brings cooler and drier conditions tonight. This cold front will bring the threat for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with the main threats being large hail, damaging winds, and torrential downpours.
1248 PM MST Sun May 22 2022 A broad area of low pressure will stay positioned just to the north of the region over the couple of days, keeping temperatures near normal while skies remain generally clear.
446 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022 Lingering showers and thunderstorms will exit the area with a crossing cold front this evening.
1101 AM PDT Sun May 22 2022 The main threat for showers today will be in the Idaho Panhandle, otherwise drier and warmer conditions are expected.
256 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022 A cooler airmass will continue to settle into the region tonight into Monday.
On Monday a slight chance of thunderstorms will be in our northern-most mountains as another weak short wave trough comes in from the north Pacific.
As ridging moves out of the area tonight, expect anomalously low temps across the area. As skies clear out tonight, widespread frost is expected throughout Upper MI, particularly inland from the Great Lakes as low temps drop into the low 30s to upper 20s. As we move into Monday, expect some WAA over us as a high pressure scoots eastwards over Lower MI. Highs Monday could get into the low 60s in the inland areas, whereas shorelines are probably only going to reach the upper 50s before a lake breeze moves inland and moderates temps. However, given the light winds and cooler temps, fire wx shouldn't be that big of a concern.
Temperatures were running just a few degrees warmer than forecast since cloud cover has scattered out. A cold front will move east today while solar insolation continues to destabilize the atmosphere amidst moisture pooling along the front. Near term guidance suggests temperatures in the lower 80s along with dewpoints in the 60s should contribute to CAPEs between 1-2k J/Kg. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to form this afternoon as surface heating destabilizes the atmosphere ahead of a cold front. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 76 64 80 67 / 80 90 20 50 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 74 63 79 65 / 70 90 40 40 30 Oak Ridge, TN 62 73 62 79 64 / 60 80 20 40 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 74 59 78 61 / 60 90 70 40 40.
A broad upper trough extending from Washington State to Michigan remains over the High Plains today with cool air in place. An upper trough moves into the area helping to potentially kick off a few isolated thunderstorms.
That being said, any snow will melt quickly for the lower elevations where ground temperatures are quite warm.
243 PM CDT Sun May 22 2022 Increasing low level advection of warm, moist air on low level flow that will veer to southeast and south combined with a pair of upper level short wave troughs will set the stage for a couple of windows of precipitation beginning late tonight. As the second upper trough approaches from northern New Mexico, some organization of initially scattered thunderstorms is expected, taking precip chances into the evening hours.
Today the region sits under north to northwest flow accompanied by building upper-level heights in associating with a transient ridge of high pressure moving overhead.
A bit more activity further north where trough has a bit more influence in flow. Again expect much of this to dissipate going into the evening hours as low level flow becomes weaker and upper trough starts to become neutral. Monday should be a dry day as we track approaching short wave trough that will be moving out of Intermountain West.
(The rest of today ) Subtle upper level trough axis through central TX aiding in expanding cloud cover northward and forecast will adjust sky cover accordingly.
307 PM CDT Sun May 22 2022 There is quite a temperature gradient across the Midsouth and especially in north Mississippi where a cold front has moved through Tupelo, but has still not exited the Midsouth.
As a trough of low pressure moves east of the Northern Rockies this afternoon, some instability will remain over Lemhi County, ID and southwest Montana. Clearing skies overnight, however, will allow for overnight lows to drop down into the 30s even in the lower valleys, causing some concern for plants that are sensitive to freezing temperatures. Monday morning will bring continued clearing to the Northern Rockies with widespread daytime high temperatures in the 60s across most Montana valleys and the 70s in the Lower Salmon River valley of Idaho. By Monday evening, a trough of low pressure moves into the Idaho panhandle bringing a chance for some afternoon thunderstorms to north- central Idaho.
Low temperatures are forecast to be slightly warmer tonight, but generally still in the 30s; however, as the previous shift noted, the probability of dropping below freezing is low, with only a few areas maxing out around 15%, and most areas at 10% or lower. Scattered showers and storms will expand through much of the forecast area on Monday, as the trough continues to moves through the Northern Plains.
We do expect an increase in activity particularly after 00Z as an upper trough approaches Middle Tennessee and provides some focusing for the abundant moisture that's still in place.
(This evening through Monday) This evening is expected to remain dry, however cloud cover will be on the increase as low level moisture begins to stream northward in advance of approaching trough. This low level waa will eventually lead to the development of a few showers and thunderstorms, mainly after midnight. Rain chances will continue to increase through the day Monday with the approach of a stronger jet streak rotating around the base of the trough out into the southern Plains.
Concerning temperatures, we should keep the low cloud cover in much of the day with post frontal temperatures likely only warming to the upper 60s to the middle and upper 70s. Farther to the southeast where the front has yet to push through, we could warm into the lower 80s if the precipitation continues to dissipate as is expected.
Looking at the larger scale, a rather broad upper trof stretching from the western states to the Great Lakes region evolves into an amplifying upper trof over the central states by Monday. Lows tonight range from the mid 60s well inland to the lower 70s at the coast. Highs on Monday will be moderated by high coverage of precipitation and cloud cover and range from around 80 inland to the lower 80s near the coast.
1037 AM MDT Sun May 22 2022 Broad upper trough remains across much of NOAM, with anomalously cold air over much of the northern CONUS. Mostly sunny skies and warmer temps on track today, although clouds will begin to increase west-east this afternoon. A ridge of high pressure will then build over the Rockies and push east toward the later half of the week, supporting much warmer and mainly dry weather.
1117 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022 Storms have moved into south-central Louisiana including the coastal waters this morning along and ahead of a prefrontal trof boundary. Also noted was the cold frontal boundary moving into the central Texas coastal zones while overall movement is slowing.
Not anticipating another round of freeze headlines tonight with slightly warmer temperatures across the eastern plains, but the high valleys of south central Wyoming may see temperature readings around 30 by early Monday morning. Freeze Warnings remain in effect across southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle this morning as sub-freezing temperatures are being observed for most sites as of the top of the hour. Only other weather hazard to watch in the short term will be another chance for freezing temperatures late this spring as 700mb temperatures continue to hover around 2-4C below zero.
302 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022 Cumulus streets persisted in the fresh east to southeast flow around a lower tropospheric ridge extending from a high southwest of Bermuda to the Georgia coast. The changes to the most recent warm and dry pattern will be result of differences in moisture depth rounding the somewhat stable ridging to our northeast. As the ridge leans southwest to a 500 mb maximum near or just east of the Florida Peninsula, GOES estimates of a precipitable water maximum near 1. The more aggressive return to rainfall suggests Monday night, however it's plausible any appreciable return to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms may have to wait until the ridge retreats northeastward, allowing moisture in the Carribean to once again lift into the area.
Frost will be possible over central, east central Mn, and portions of west central Wi where temperatures fall to near freezing, limited cloud cover tonight, and a light wind is expected.
219 PM MDT Sun May 22 2022 Upper trough axis approaching the northern Rockies this afternoon will dig into the central Rockies tonight and enter the central and northern plains on Monday.
Concerning temperatures, we should keep the low cloud cover in much of the day with post frontal temperatures likely only warming to the upper 60s to the middle and upper 70s. Farther to the southeast where the front has yet to push through, we could warm into the lower 80s if the precipitation continues to dissipate as is expected. This is associated with an advancing cold front which is bisecting the region and will continue to shift SE over the remainder of the area this morning through this afternoon.
359 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022 A cold front will push southeast across central PA late this afternoon and evening, accompanied by showers with brief downpours and a few strong to severe thunderstorms, mainly over the Susquehanna Valley and points east. Conditions will dry out tonight through early this coming week as an area of high pressure slides by to our north. This weather feature will bring noticeably cooler temperatures and lower/more comfortable humidity.
1156 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022 (The rest of today ) Subtle upper level trough axis through central TX aiding in expanding cloud cover northward and forecast will adjust sky cover accordingly.