Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1021 PM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022 Dry high pressure will provide for a pleasantly cooler and less humid remainder of the weekend. Otherwise, dry high pressure continues to sprawl from the Great Lakes region to the southern Appalachians late this evening. Gradually decoupling surface winds in the stronger pressure gradient along the southeast fringe of the high have permitted any lingering, low-end gusts to abate this evening. High pressure will build over the Ohio Valley and into the central Appalachians through Sunday.
728 PM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022 High pressure brings dry, cool weather through Sunday night.
839 PM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022 Update The 500 mb ridge was located in wrn MN. This ridge is forecast to build east into Sunday. If there is any signal there is a small chance for precipitation Sunday night with a warm front in the area.
837 PM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022 A large area of high pressure is centered over the Great Lakes. Much cooler than normal temperatures with very comfortable daytime humidity will continue through the weekend under a gusty northwest wind.
With an Omega blocking pattern persisting across the CONUS through tomorrow night, the mid to upper level ridge will continue to build promoting hot and dry conditions across South Texas. Maximum temperatures tomorrow are expected to range from the lower 90s near the coast the near 103 degrees across the Brush Country.
There is a Denver Cyclone centered north of DIA over southeastern Weld County. It increase a bit on Sunday as the upper trough over the western U. The low level winds should look to be normal diurnal trends tonight and strong southerlies on Sunday. None of the models, including the high resolution models, are showing significant amounts of measurable rainfall this evening or overnight. Will go with the higher pops, "likely"s over the mountains and foothills this evening, with "chance"s west to no pops east on the plains.
Dry/warm conditions will persist through much of the period as amplified ridging aloft shifts slowly east through the Central Plains. However, an outside chance for precip returns late in the period as an increasingly difluent southwest flow aloft sets up across the Western High Plains downstream of an approaching upper level trough. As for temperatures, little change to the general overall air mass across the high plains will result in lows once again ranging from the mid/upper 60s(F) to the lower 70s(F) tonight.
624 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022 An amplified upper trough will remain in place across the western U. A low level jet near 50kts will keep southerly winds 15 to 30 mph overnight, and will also keep lows in the lower to mid 70s. The highest POPs however will be across the eastern panhandle and northwest Sandhills.
940 PM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022 Much of the late afternoon focused on a persistent cloud line over the lower Keys with periodic convective showers. Otherwise, the overall pattern with the split in the subtropical ridging near 25-27 North latitude and frontal troughing progressing east well offshore the Mid Atlantic and Southeast states will eventually resume light southerly winds by Sunday morning.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) A highly amplified upper level ridge is parked across the central CONUS with a robust upper trough across the West, placing west Texas and southeast New Mexico on the southwestern periphery of the ridge. Despite some subsidence on the edge of the ridge, modest mid-level instability of ~1000 J/kg may support isolated high-based showers or thunderstorms later this afternoon during peak heating across the northeastern Permian Basin. The upper trough out west pushes northeastward through Sunday, flattening the ridge some and nudging it back eastward towards the Mississippi Valley.
636 PM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022 Dry high pressure will provide for a pleasantly cooler and less humid remainder of the weekend. As of 615 PM EDT Saturday: Dry high pressure continues to sprawl from the Great Lakes region to the southern Appalachians this evening. Gradually decoupling surface winds in the higher pressure gradient along the southeast fringe of the high will permit any lingering low end gusts to abate, but light mixing overnight may keep min temps from crashing in the very dry airmass. High pressure will build over the Ohio Valley and into the central Appalachians through Sunday.
The sky will remain mostly clear over the region with subsidence and dry advection via building high pressure. High pressure will maintain dry and cool weather through Sunday night, though mid and upr clouds will increase from the north as moisture streams acrs the ridge axis.
/Tonight through Sunday/ Key Messages: -- Warming Trend Continues Through The Weekend The amplified ridge currently located overhead has warmed temperatures considerably today and will continue along that trend tomorrow and in the coming days. Conditions should stay dry with mostly clear skies this afternoon with the potential for a few occasional clouds to pop up as a result of the low-level moisture axis in the western half of the state.
The PAH forecast area will be under a dominant mid level ridge which will be more centered over us by the end of the short term period. Meanwhile, the medium range models, with good agreement, showed that at the surface we will be on the edge of a dome of high pressure as it migrates from the Great Lakes to the Appalachians. This increase will not be enough to substantially diminish the relative comfort level through the short term period, though highs are forecast to increase from the 80s Sun to the lower 90s Mon. A large upper level high is still forecast to be centered over the MS and Ohio Valley regions, to down to near the Gulf and west into the central Plains.
Looking at GOES-16 water vapor imagery, there is a high amplitude ridge sitting over the eastern Great Plains into the western Mississippi River Valley. The FA is under weak southwest flow aloft with a deep trough up stream over the Pacific Northwest into northern CA. This high pressure associated with the ridge will continue to dominate the combined Panhandles. This will continue the high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s. With the anti- cyclonic flow from this high pressure over the south-central US is leading to a stream of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico that is traveling west into Mexico and back up into portions of New Mexico. With the weak winds aloft shear is extremely low and CAPE values are only in the low to mid hundreds J/Kg.
215 AM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Aviation The 500 mb ridge was located in wrn MN. This ridge is forecast to build east into Sunday. If there is any signal there is a small chance for precipitation Sunday night with a warm front in the area.
Upper level ridging remained in control again tonight, leading to another night of quiet and mild weather with temperatures as of 3 AM still in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Hot and humid weather will continue today and Monday as strong southerly flow continues to usher in warm, moist air and the upper level ridge makes only slight progress eastward. Attention then turns to higher storm chances Monday afternoon/evening as upper level troughing pushes east of the Rockies and a surface cold front moves into the forecast area from the northwest.
122 AM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 A Canadian high pressure system will settle south into the Ohio Valley this weekend, offering dry and seasonably mild conditions. Warmer and more humid air will slowly build into the region by the beginning of the upcoming workweek, with hot and humid conditions expected once again by midweek. Mid level flow characterized by a strong ridge over the Nation's mid section and a mean trof over New England and the east coast. In a much drier airmass, temperatures will drop into the upper 40s to the lower 50s, although a few mid 40 readings are not out of the question in the normally cold locales. A warming trend begins on Monday as a ridge begins to build over the Ohio Valley.
Discussion: In the upper levels, a strong ridge is centered over the Mississippi Valley. A strong trough is centered over the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley is slowly drifting eastward. A dry air mass remains in place today and tonight with dew points dropping into the lower 40s in the Tennessee Valley this afternoon as optimal mixing is expected with sunny skies. Highs will be pleasant this afternoon in the lower 80s at most locations in the Valley.
On Monday, the upper ridge axis will have shifted to our east, with a trough approaching from the west-northwest. Additionally, chances for thunderstorms return in the evening as lift from the aforementioned trough interacts with an approaching cold front.
351 AM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Dry and warmer weather can be expected for the early portions of the week.
243 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Key Messages: 1) After a slightly "cooler" day today, expect hot conditions to continue this week.
and Monday An isolated shower is possible near the Michigan border this morning ahead of the 850 mb warm front. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s, but it should be much cooler at the lakeshore. Monday will be hot and humid as surface temperatures in the low 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s produce heat indices in the middle to upper 90s.
an upper low over central Nevada. Look for an increase in shower coverage as the low in Nevada tracks into northern Utah and western Wyoming through the afternoon.
Winds will turn southerly today as the high begins to move east. Temperatures will warm considerably on Monday, with highs in the low 90s. Breezy southwest winds are expected to be strong enough to keep the lake breeze offshore, so the warmer temperatures should impact all locations.
217 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 A familiar weather pattern, at least with respect to heat and wind, will persist over the next 24-48 hours with continued warmups through the upper 90s to around 100 degrees in the afternoons followed by a limited cooldown overnight to the low 70s. As western Kansas remains in a warm sector regime under a ridge aloft, the afternoon gustiness will return again Today as the boundary layer mixes out dry adiabatic to near 700 mb with average winds around 25 knots in the 900-800 mb layer mid afternoon. A slight breakdown in the upper ridge and increased flow aloft will allow typical June eastern Colorado convective development reaches farther east to around the Kansas line in the evening before losing diurnal heating and dissipating.
Given that 850MB temperatures will be warmer and 500MB heights will increase to around 590-592 dam today, expect high temperatures of 100 to spread across more locations. Afternoon mixing may be sufficient to keep heat indicies in the low to mid 100s, but some spots east of I-45 could see indicies between 106-109 degrees. look before you lock! The low temperatures for both tonight and Monday night will generally be in the mid 70s to low 80s.
Tonight through Monday night A highly amplified pattern is in place across the country this morning with upper troughs located over the Great Basin and along the East Coast. In between is a sprawling ridge of high pressure that is located pretty much on top of the state. The upper high will remain over the region through the period and beyond. A break from the steam heat of late will occur today as a slightly cooler but considerably drier air mass is overspreading the area. Surface analysis shows the back door cold front that kicked off yesterdays convection has just about cleared the state but still has to go through the SW corner.
High pressure still remains in control but PWATs will increase this afternoon to around 1. 4" so while this isn't impressive, combined with the seabreeze, a weak coastal trough, and daytime heating, it is possible we could have a few showers develop over the Coastal Bend.
Temperatures will warm into the low to mid 80s for most this afternoon as the upper-level ridge axis continues to push closer to the area and winds turn southerly. A lake breeze is expected to develop this afternoon, but the southerly synoptic flow in the lower atmosphere should keep the lake breeze confined to the lakeshore where temperatures will be a bit cooler in the 70s. While this warmer air mass will allow temperatures on Monday to top out in the 90s once again, the dew points are expected to remain in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees which will keep heat indices on par with the temperatures in the low to mid 90s.
Will also be watching the western/southwestern CWA late this afternoon and evening for possible thunderstorm activity as mid-level energy moves around the upper ridge.
This was producing a northeast flow of cooler and drier air into the TN Valley region. The high/ridge will shift a bit further southeast today, and pivot stream flow at the surface to 8h more to an easterly direction.
High pressure will maintain dry and cool weather today, though mid and upr clouds will increase from the north late today and during the evening. Warm frontal passage is expected Monday around mid-day. If any precipitation does fall, it will have to overcome a deep surface dry layer in wake of the trough. Monday night will be defined by warm advection under a building ridge coincident with seasonable lows and rising dewpoints.
A highly meridional pattern continues over the CONUS with the high pressure system centered over the Northern Ozarks with a deep long wave trough positioned over the West Coast of the US.
McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 62 93 67 98 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 59 89 64 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 84 59 90 64 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 53 85 59 92 / 0 0 0 0 0.
Meanwhile, a warm front lifting northward could trigger a few showers or storms across the far north late tonight into Sunday morning. Lows tonight will be considerably warmer than last night with readings in the upper 40s to middle 50s.
The thunderstorms are moving northbound associated with a strong upper level jet on the east side of an elongated upper level trough positioned over the Pacific Northwest.
The cold front is knocking on our NE door into Little Rock now and will ease in overnight to along I-49 give or take. A little less muggy, but not much cooler until tomorrow night. Lows not so exaggerated, but a slight gradient being cooler closer to the air mass arriving.
However, some model guidance suggest gusty winds remaining overnight, especially over the higher terrain areas of the Prairie Coteau. When the period opens on Monday, an upper level trof is lifting out of the Rockies, on its way through the northern plains region Monday night. Best precipitation chances in the out period show up Monday night with that upper trof passage.
A sharp ridge remains overhead high pressure near the surface centered just off to the southeast of the area. A deep trough is currently extended along the Pacific coastline.
126 AM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Dry high pressure will provide for a pleasantly cooler and less humid remainder of the weekend. Otherwise, dry high pressure continues to sprawl from the Great Lakes region to the southern Appalachians tonight. High pressure will build over the Ohio Valley and into the central Appalachians through Sunday.
155 AM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022 The upper ridge sits east of the forecast area today, with the upper trough over The Rockies, and southwest flow aloft. Later tonight, a cold front passes through and bringing more seasonable temperatures to start the work week, with highs Monday in the 70s and 80s for most of the region.
Otherwise, this Sunday will be as good as it gets for mid June as dewpoints will fall into the lower 50s and even the upper 40s. Otherwise, Sunday night will be the last night to give the AC a break as low temps will only be slightly warmer. The good news is it will take some time to increase the humidity as high temps will reach the lower 90s.
1240 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 An amplified upper trough will remain in place across the western U. A low level jet near 50kts will keep southerly winds 15 to 30 mph overnight, and will also keep lows in the lower to mid 70s. The highest POPs however will be across the eastern panhandle and northwest Sandhills. A cold front will move into the northwest during the day. Then, near and behind the advancing cold front Monday night.
351 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Upper air and satellite data showing ridging remaining the primary feature across the region early this morning, with the axis running roughly from eastern TX northward into the eastern Dakotas. This ridging is sandwiched between low pressure spinning over the northeastern CONUS coast and another system digging south along the West Coast. At the surface, the CWA continues to sit between high pressure extending from Ontario southward through the Great Lakes/Midwest regions and a trough of low pressure draped through the High Plains. Models remain in good agreement showing that outside of a bit of an eastward shift of the main upper level ridge axis, no notable changes to the pattern are expected through tonight.
Most short and medium-range guidance shows 1000-850mb thicknesses being slightly greater across the region tomorrow afternoon, so will go a few degrees warmer on high temps compared to today. However, unlike the oppressive steambath we experienced early last week, dewpoints will run in the lower 50s, keeping the heat index lower than the actual temperature.
The thunderstorms will continue into Monday morning as the wave moves through, and the ridge begins to push east.
1048 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022 (Rest of tonight) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this evening, with high pressure in control of the weather and light northerly winds helping to reinforce a drier air mass. The end result will be a very comfortable night and start to the day on Sunday, with low temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s and dewpoints in the lower 50s.
A large scale mid/upper level ridge extends from the lower Mississippi Valley north into southern Canada, with our area on its western periphery. The northern portion of this ridge will shift a bit east today and tonight, while the southern portion remains anchored in place. Lows will be in the lower to mid 70s.
312 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 High pressure was centered over the Great Lakes early this morning, with clear skies and comfortable conditions found over eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois, and far northeast Missouri. As of 200 AM, temperatures ranged from 51 in Sterling, to 64 in Keokuk, with the low values thanks to dry dewpoints in the 40s and 50s. [Key Messages] 1) Warm temperatures and dry conditions to close out the weekend [Discussion] High pressure will slowly move southeast through the day, and will be in place over the Ohio River Valley this evening. Warmer temperatures will follow, with highs this afternoon climbing into the mid to upper 80s and overnight lows only dropping into the 60s.
144 AM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 High pressure brings dry, cool weather through tonight night.
Few models have much in the way of convection, but given persistence with this feature each day as it has progressed from the lower MS Valley, we will go higher than NBM initializations so that isolated/widely scattered thunderstorm potential is messaged. Lows tonight will once again fall into the lower 70s at most locations.
Expect a very light reprieve from the high heat Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will climb back into the upper 90s to the lower 100s. Highs on Sunday will be the coolest of the next seven days with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and will feel pleasant due to the low humidity. Overall, an upper ridge will remain over the Mid-South over the next seven days. In addition, the ridge is expected to strengthen over the Mid-South during this time.
The upper ridge over the mid-Mississippi River valley will nudge to the southeast during this time allowing for slightly lower thickness values on Sunday.
157 AM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022 The upper ridge sits east of the forecast area today, with the upper trough over The Rockies, and southwest flow aloft. Later tonight a cold front passes through the region, bringing more seasonable temperatures to start the work week, with highs Monday in the 70s and 80s for most of the forecast area.
N/NE flow aloft over the area this morning as central CONUS mid/upper ridging extends into the SE U. Central CONUS ridge expands into the E U. early in the week before gradually weakening mid/late week while its axis orients more east-west while week high pressure builds at the surface locally leading to more pronounced E/NE flow during the latter half of the week. Atlantic high pressure builds across the waters during the first half of the week with east to southeast flow. Atlantic high pressure builds in during the first half of the week with east to southeast flow.
In addition to the cooler temperatures brought in by a passing cold front, the dewpoints have also dropped into the mid 50s. All around pleasant day! Tomorrow will be similar with dewpoints even a touch lower as the upper ridge scoots closer. Overnight lows will be several degrees cooler than normal tonight thanks to the drier air and clear skies.
An additional trigger for shower and thunderstorm initiation is the weak trough that is currently transversing the Florida Peninsula, which will induce robust convection and spawn outflow boundaries that will propagate into the area. The shower activity will begin in the Upper and Middle Keys this afternoon, with the convection working down to the lower Keys. The remainder of the week should be relatively quiet as the strong ridge of high pressure over Canada and the Midwest sinks southward and into the southeast.
Large scale pattern at 12Z this morning showed a mid and upper tropospheric ridge from TX up through the Dakotas and MN, and a trough at 500 mb from British Columbia Canada down into northern CA.
346 AM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 High pressure will build across the area through today.
455 AM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 High pressure along with cooler and drier air continues building into the region resulting in seasonable temperatures for mid June through Monday.
(Today through Monday afternoon) The entire region will remain under the guide of the western extension of a ridge centered over the mid-Mississippi Valley. Persistent southeast flow with seasonal summertime temps will be the norm with mid-upper 90s over much of the area with 100+ located along the lower RGV for both today and Monday. There is one shift in the forecast and that's the addition of convective development out west later this afternoon and evening thanks to an early Monsoonal push of moisture out of Chihuahua and Sonora up into the high terrain bordering the Rio Grande river.
246 AM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 High pressure brings dry, unseasonably cool weather through tonight.
1229 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 (This evening through Sunday) An upper level disturbance/perturbation will rotate around the upper high across portions of the region this weekend. Despite the small glimmer of hope that some locations may get rain, the hot temperatures will continue into Sunday although some cloud cover over the area should keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than the last few days.
Temperatures are in the lower to middle 90s at the present time for most areas and we should see highs later this afternoon topping out in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees.
Monday, the upper level ridge deepens just to our west, with heights rising across Central Alabama. Afternoon temperatures will warm into the low to mid 90s.
High pressure was centered over Lake Superior this afternoon with a warm front draped from the Northern Plains into the Missouri Valley. An upper level ridge will build in for Sunday and Monday and bring a very warm air mass to the Northland. As the upper ridge moves to the east Monday night, a cold front will work across the region. Northeasterly winds will diminish this evening as a warm front approaches western Lake Superior. A few showers and storms will be possible with this warm front during the morning hours Sunday, but are not expected to be strong or severe. Chances for showers and storms return Monday night as a cold front works through.