Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This would most likely be for southern Morris, Lyon and Coffey counties where there could still be some ability to tap the higher instability. Will hold onto the watch across these areas for a little while longer until it is more obvious the higher instability is pushed south of the area. This would have the higher POPs remaining over the eastern sections of the forecast area into this evening. The lower dewpoints seen in western NEB may not make it all the way into the forecast area but lows are expected to range from the lower 60s north central counties to near 70 over the east central counties.
Today Through Sunday Night The upper level high pressure system centered over west Texas will remain there through the weekend. This high will provide a northwest flow aloft for Arkansas today and north flow on Saturday. A cold front will move into Arkansas this afternoon and stall in central Arkansas Sunday. Highs today will be in the lower 90s and Sunday will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 70s and in the mid 60s to mid 70s Sunday night.
The new work week begins with a strong upper level ridge over the Rocky Mountains and troughing over the northeast.
/issued 1005 PM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021/ No significant changes were made to the inherited grids/zones this evening as ridging sfc/aloft maintain dry/warm/muggy conditions through the night.
Temperatures in the island communities are in the lower 80s to near 80F and dew points values are in the mid 70s. Winds have continued to relax and become more southerly as the high pressure system over the Atlantic weakens. Over the next few days, an upper level trough is going to dig into the southeast United States, carrying a frontal boundary that may reach northern Florida.
We will continue to see the stratus develop with the cooler air and northeast winds through the morning which should keep the warming at bay through the morning. During the next workweek a hot pattern will emerge as the ridge and high pressure in the Rockies is forecast strengthen and expand into western Kansas.
There is some potential for lingering or additional development behind the line with arrival of cooler air aloft, but progressive nature of the system makes that less likely. Went a bit cooler in southeast KS based on cooling associated with the storms.
Currently, upper level low continues to lift north across Manitoba, while a S/WV mid level ridge develops into eastern Montana. S/WV ridge continues east across the Dakotas today, along with return flow/WAA across the region.
Upper level ridge will gradually strengthen ahead of deepening trof off the Pacific coast. Look for warmer than normal daytime temps: highs in the 80s today then mid 80s to lower 90s Sunday.
Weak mid-level height rises begin today in the wake of the upper level trough drifting off to the southeast. Models do hint at a weak mid-level PV max over east-central KY on the backside (in this case, to the north) of the upper level trough. Expect a gradient in the higher CAPE values (2000+ J/kg) over west-central KY near our border with PAH. Decided to go with isolated to widely scattered coverage in the PoP grids this afternoon, with the higher values over west-central KY and southwestern IN. A weak cold front will approach during the day Sunday and will likely serve as a trigger for convective development.
352 AM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021 (Issued 352 AM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021) Today through Sunday: A cold front will push through the area by mid to late morning today. The low will move through Sunday night, possibly bringing a few showers/storms to the northern forecast area.
Humidity levels will be comfortable with dew points mixing into the lower-mid 40s in many areas this afternoon.
An upper level ridge will continue to amplify over the western United States as an upper level high intensifies over the Southwest. Upper level flow will be from the northwest around an upper level high centered over the Four Corners, while flow at the surface is from the south. On Sunday evening, an upper level disturbance will rotate around the ridge into western Nebraska, leading to thunderstorm development at that time. Although there is some discrepancy in the exact placement at this time, they are expected to occur somewhere on the High Plains on Sunday evening, potentially in far western Nebraska.
Subtropical ridging centered nearby maintains a dry subsident airmass aloft with no rain expected. On Sunday, the Subtropical ridging drifts to the northwest allowing a northerly flow aloft.
300 AM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021 A few scattered showers are still lingering south of I-40 as the upper trough is slowly pulling away. Coupled with dew points in the lower 70s, afternoon heat index values will be in the upper 90s.
Since the low level moisture will be slower to vacate southern Kansas today, expect to see some diurnal cumulus build-ups later this morning into midday and cannot rule out isolated showers and storms as a pool of instability lingers closer to the Oklahoma border.
308 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021 The upper level trough that has dominated weather over central Indiana for the last several days is now moving across the Eastern United States with broad ridging across the Central United States. A series of weak upper level waves riding the ridge will be the primary focus for weather over the weekend with a weak cold front passing through the area late tonight. Ahead of the front, a moderately unstable airmass today will bring another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area, focused more across the western and northern portions of the forecast area which are expected to be warmer and more unstable.
The mid to upper level ridge axis will remain from northern Mexico to West Texas during the period.
334 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021 Weak ridging over the central Great Lakes flattens today in response to an approaching jet streak working across the northern Midwest.
320 AM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021 Upper ridge centered over W TX this morning will drift west along the NM/Mexico border today.
Showers and storms have mostly dissipated across the region early this morning as the last front associated with the cut-off low to our north pushes eastward. Looking ahead, the first half of the work week should be pleasant with broad ridging over the Midwest and dry weather expected.
Mid/upper ridge over the Rocky Mountains will continue to build from the southwest high and will amplify over the weekend as its influence over us will strengthen. However, there may very well be perturbations that skirt around the periphery of the mid/upper high to give us a shot at some rain/MCS activity.
652 AM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021 High pressure will keep rain chances lower in west Arkansas and more scattered thunderstorms in the east. Today Through Sunday Night The upper level high pressure system centered over west Texas will remain there through the weekend. This high will provide a northwest flow aloft for Arkansas today and north flow on Saturday. A cold front will move into Arkansas this afternoon and stall in central Arkansas Sunday. Highs today will be in the lower 90s and Sunday will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 70s and in the mid 60s to mid 70s Sunday night.
Shower and thunderstorm chances should increase again on Sunday with a crossing cold front. Thermal ridging in the low levels, coincident with radiational cooling has resulted in an inversion just above the surface, with low level clouds and some fog in the valleys this morning. Mainly dry weather is expected much of today as flat ridging briefly builds in.
834 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021 As expected, the low stratus/patchy fog has mixed out for most of the majority of the area this morning per regional observations and web cameras. Weak mid-level height rises begin today in the wake of the upper level trough drifting off to the southeast. Models do hint at a weak mid-level PV max over east-central KY on the backside (in this case, to the north) of the upper level trough. Expect a gradient in the higher CAPE values (2000+ J/kg) over west-central KY near our border with PAH. Decided to go with isolated to widely scattered coverage in the PoP grids this afternoon, with the higher values over west-central KY and southwestern IN. A weak cold front will approach during the day Sunday and will likely serve as a trigger for convective development.
432 AM MDT Sat Jun 12 2021 Upper level ridge will begin to build over the Central and Southern Rockies today. Expect highs to be about 10F warmer than yesterday. Should see cumulus clouds form this afternoon over the higher terrain, most of them will be south of Interstate 70. Hot and dry conditions will persist through the week as a large ridge builds over the Rockies.
Upper level low off the British Columbia coast will provide continued onshore flow to the region over the next few days.
501 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021 A cold front will drift southwest across western Virginia this morning and will continue down the southern Appalachians tonight with the largest coverage of showers and thunderstorms in the mountains. A stronger cold front will pass across the Appalachians on Sunday, bringing a return of dry and cooler weather as high pressure builds in to the Mid Atlantic region for the middle of the week.
The low stratus deck will attempt to push into metro before daytime heating has a sufficient chance to deepen the boundary layer. Weak ridging over the central Great Lakes flattens today in response to an approaching jet streak working across the northern Midwest.
405 AM MDT Sat Jun 12 2021 Height rises kick in today as an area of high pressure currently over SE New Mexico and western Texas slowly begins to move northward. Anticyclonic flow around the area of high pressure will keep broad southwesterly flow over our CWA. High temperatures will continue to run on the warm side of things with highs running about 10 degrees warmer than usual. Tomorrow, the center of high pressure inches closer and brings warmer temps with it.
1025 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021 Today will be primarily rain free as an area of weak high pressure ridges into the area.
Meso models are not impressive with this, but lingering inverted trough axis combined with instability axis could still set something off before the northwest winds and drier dew points take hold. (Issued 352 AM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021) Today through Sunday: A cold front will push through the area by mid to late morning today. The low will move through Sunday night, possibly bringing a few showers/storms to the northern forecast area.
The upper level trough that has dominated weather over central Indiana for the last several days is now moving across the Eastern United States with broad ridging across the Central United States. A series of weak upper level waves riding the ridge will be the primary focus for weather over the weekend with a weak cold front passing through the area late tonight. Ahead of the front, a moderately unstable airmass today will bring another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area, focused more across the western and northern portions of the forecast area which are expected to be warmer and more unstable.
/issued 255 AM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will remain under the influence of 500 mb high pressure that will be centered more or less over west Texas. Despite the warmer than normal daytime high temperatures, relative humidity values will remain low enough to preclude the necessity of a Heat Advisory for this weekend.
515 AM MDT Sat Jun 12 2021 Height rises kick in today as an area of high pressure currently over SE New Mexico and western Texas slowly begins to move northward. Anticyclonic flow around the area of high pressure will keep broad southwesterly flow over our CWA. High temperatures will continue to run on the warm side of things with highs running about 10 degrees warmer than usual. Tomorrow, the center of high pressure inches closer and brings warmer temps with it.
Weak upper troughing from the Southern Appalachians into the C Gulf with narrow dry slot over N FL Peninsula as seen in water vapor imagery. With troughing surface and aloft moving into the deep south tonight, expect to see increasing showers and thunderstorms near and south of the convergence zone ahead of the boundary.
701 AM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021 At 1 am, the cold front was located a long a KEAU-KDSM line with dewpoints dropping into the lower 60s promptly behind the front, followed rapidly by 50s.
/issued 515 AM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021/ Weak northerly flow aloft will prevail over the Midsouth today, between an upper ridge centered near El Paso and a longwave trof along the mid-Atlantic coast.
637 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021 Today will be primarily rain free as an area of weak high pressure ridges into the area.
907 AM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021 Quiet weather continues with broad high pressure centered over the Dakotas this morning. Currently, upper level low continues to lift north across Manitoba, while a S/WV mid level ridge develops into eastern Montana. S/WV ridge continues east across the Dakotas today, along with return flow/WAA across the region.
1100 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021 Mid-upper level trough will continue to push southward through north and central Florida today, keeping ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic south of Florida. The advancing trough and potential for boundary collisions near the coast will lead to greatest rain chances southeast of the I-4 corridor toward Brevard County and the Treasure Coast this afternoon, with PoPs up to 40-50%. Highs will reach into the low to mid 90s, with mid 90s even possible toward the coast today. Approaching mid-upper level trough and increasing moisture should lead to scattered shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon.
What is probably more of a dryline than a warm front, because the pressure gradient won't be as impressive as the thermal/moisture gradient, will stretch west to east originating from weak surface pressure falls over SE New Mexico through the afternoon. Can't rule out an isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorm through the afternoon hours, especially in the northern South Plains and extreme southwest Texas Panhandle where H850 temps will be 4-5 degC cooler. Early summer anticyclone shifting west-northwest through New Mexico will move over the 4-Corners for the week ahead. Flow aloft will trend more northerly late Sunday, and we will have a pool of mid level moisture and instability along the eastern slopes of the Rockies as well as the high plains, along with high surface dewpoints and easterlyish low level upslope flow.
325 AM MDT Sat Jun 12 2021 Very warm and dry conditions as a strong upper-level ridge sits over northwest Wyoming.
648 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021 A cold front will drift southwest across western Virginia this morning and will continue down the southern Appalachians tonight with the largest coverage of showers and thunderstorms in the mountains. A stronger cold front will pass across the Appalachians on Sunday, bringing a return of dry and cooler weather as high pressure builds in to the Mid Atlantic region for the middle of the week.
Western Montana and central Idaho will be sandwiched between high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west today, leading to southwest flow aloft. The ridge begins to strengthen on Sunday, leading to warming temperatures into the upper 80s to 90s for many valley locations. Although the ridge is strengthening during this timeframe, forecast models maintain southwest flow over the region, with the ridge axis remaining off to the east.
616 AM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021 Morning lows are ranging from the low 50s west of Devils Lake to the upper 50s in Lake of the Woods. An upper ridge will begin to amplify over eastern and into Alberta tonight, setting the stage for several days of dry and increasing warmer temperatures. As the ridge amplifies, a wave embedded in the northwest flow aloft may clip southeastern Manitoba into the far northeastern zones. The upper ridge slides further east into Saskatchewan for Sunday, allowing warmer temperatures across the southern valley with afternoon highs around 90 not out of the question.
515 AM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021 Weak northerly flow aloft will prevail over the Midsouth today, between an upper ridge centered near El Paso and a longwave trof along the mid-Atlantic coast.
Morning lows are ranging from the low 50s west of Devils Lake to the upper 50s in Lake of the Woods. An upper ridge will begin to amplify over eastern and into Alberta tonight, setting the stage for several days of dry and increasing warmer temperatures. As the ridge amplifies, a wave embedded in the northwest flow aloft may clip southeastern Manitoba into the far northeastern zones. The upper ridge slides further east into Saskatchewan for Sunday, allowing warmer temperatures across the southern valley with afternoon highs around 90 not out of the question.
Shower and thunderstorm chances should increase again on Sunday with a crossing cold front. Otherwise, mainly dry weather is expected much of today as flat ridging briefly builds in.
536 AM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021 A weak cold front will trigger scattered thunderstorms across central and southeast Illinois today. High temperatures will top out in the lower to middle 90s. 08z/3am surface analysis shows a weak cold front extending from the Upper Peninsula of Michigan southwestward to Oklahoma. High temperatures will once again top out in the lower to middle 90s, with peak heat index values approaching 100 degrees. Low temperatures will range from the lower 60s northwest of the Illinois River to the lower 70s south of I-70. While temperatures will remain very warm in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees behind the departing cold front on Sunday, dewpoints dropping into the 50s everywhere north of I-70 will make things feel much more comfortable.
an upper level ridge axis centered over southwest Texas this morning remains nearly stationary through tonight. High temperatures are expected to be in the low to upper 80s. Low temperatures are expected to fall into the low to mid 60s.
534 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021 Low clouds will partially diminish this afternoon, before a weak cold front drifts down from the north this afternoon and tonight. Slightly cooler air with lower humidity will kick off the new week, though some scattered late afternoon and evening showers and isolated thunderstorms are still possible.
A few scattered showers are still lingering south of I-40 as the upper trough is slowly pulling away. Coupled with dew points in the lower 70s, afternoon heat index values will be in the upper 90s.
Cloud cover continues to overspread the bulk of the area early this morning, with a combination of cirrus blowoff from the MCS diving south through Oklahoma and stratus above the cold front that has exited east-central Kansas. Recent water vapor imagery shows upper ridging remaining in place from northern Mexico to the northern Plains.
/issued 320 AM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021/ Upper ridge centered over W TX this morning will drift west along the NM/Mexico border today.
518 AM MDT Sat Jun 12 2021 Very warm and dry conditions as a strong upper-level ridge sits over northwest Wyoming.
but some patchy fog remains mainly in portions of Morgan and Cullman Counties, especially along the higher terrain. Drier conditions are forecast tonight as daytime heating comes to an end and the trough pushes to the south of the area. Sunday will feature anticyclonic flow aloft with the trough exiting to the south.
252 PM MDT Sat Jun 12 2021 Broad upper ridge is over the northern Plains with deep trof off the Pacific coast. However, light winds around the Black Hills are southeast along the east side, so temperatures in the Rapid City area have been cooler. Hot and mainly dry conditions will prevail for the first part of the week as upper ridge rebounds.
Highs will climb to the low to mid 80s for population centers and valleys, while mountains and higher elevation areas will stay cooler.
UNSEASONABLE HEAT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND amid a zonal-like upper-level northwest flow as the predominant upper ridge builds across the central/western US. A subtle mid- level wave sliding through the eastern extent of the ridge will work with the hot and somewhat humid air mass providing 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE to promote scattered convective showers late today/early this evening.
Just a beautiful Saturday out there, with mostly sunny skies, light winds, and 1730 UTC temperatures in the lower 70s to lower 80s across the forecast area. Quiet weather continues with broad high pressure centered over the Dakotas this morning. Currently, upper level low continues to lift north across Manitoba, while a S/WV mid level ridge develops into eastern Montana. S/WV ridge continues east across the Dakotas today, along with return flow/WAA across the region.
313 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021 Water vapor imagery at 20Z continues to show broad upper ridging across Mexico and much of the CONUS, aside from one upper trough off the Pacific Northwest coast and another over Manitoba impacting the flow in the northernmost states. At the surface, high pressure sits over the Northern/Central Plains and this will dominate our weather over the short-term. Sunday's highs warm slightly to the low 90s for most as the upper ridge amplifies over the western US.
While the 00Z/06Z progs did not event hint at this convection, the 12Z NAM did initialize on the higher vorticity aloft, which is progged to slowly drop SE across E TX this afternoon. Meanwhile, an additional weakness in the flow aloft remains progged to drop SSE through the Lower MS Valley today, around the Ern periphery of the upper ridge axis that is centered over Nrn old MX/far W TX/Srn NM. With the lack of cu and diminished cu redevelopment expected over the latter areas today, stronger insolation should result in warmer temps than what was advertised, and thus have raised max temps 1-2 degrees over these areas, with some mid 90s possible.
Early this afternoon, a closed low aloft was placed over Manitoba, with zonal flow across the forecast area. At the surface, broad high pressure was stretched across the Northern Plains, leading to a light breeze and mostly sunny skies, except for a few high clouds streaming in. Upper ridging begins to build to our west on Sunday, with minimal impacts across the forecast area in the wake of the cold front overnight.
A potent 500mb ridge centered over western Texas will help maintain dry conditions, with hot days and warm nights across Deep South Texas through Sunday night. GOES-16 visible satellite imagery shows a plethora of cloud cover across the Bay of Campeche and southwest Gulf of Mexico due to convection that is associated with a broad area of low pressure. Despite the moisture advection into South Texas from this activity, strong subsidence from a stout 595dam mid-level ridge over west Texas will keep things rain-free and abnormally warm through Sunday.
240 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021 Visible satellite imagery and sfc observations early this afternoon has indicated convergence of the low-lvl wind field aligned generally N-S across central parts of the area.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase on Sunday with a crossing cold front.
Light winds tonight with lows dropping into the upper 50s to lower 60s, and highs Sunday again back into the lower 90s. Nighttime lows in the mid 60s, and daytime highs in the lower to mid 90s as an upper level ridge remains firmly entrenched across the central US.
1106 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021 A weak cold front will drop in from the north late today. Sunday: A cold front will linger across the area before shifting offshore late while deep troughing helps maintain PWATs around 2. While the bulk of the precipitation will largely depend on the timing and placement of the cold front, there could also be convection along the sea breeze and other boundaries that form. High temperatures will be slightly cooler than previous days, topping out in the mid 80s.