Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1106 AM MDT WED SEP 28 2016 Blocking pattern in place across the CONUS this week as downstream upper-low near the Great Lakes is taking its time departing. Satellite pix early this morning reveal cloudless skies across much of the intermountain west with a cold front evident settling south thru central Montana. This as an upper-level ridge of high pressure amplifies along the Front Range.
/issued 902 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016/ Weak cyclonic flow is in place aloft over the southeast this morning as a large closed low spins over the Great Lakes. At the surface, the Atlantic high pressure ridge axis is over the Florida Straits with a cold front approaching the Florida panhandle. For the rest of today, we can expect scattered showers and thunderstorms first over coastal areas through this morning and then shifting inland in the westerly flow and this is likely where the highest coverage will be.
330 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016 Quiet weather continues in the short term with the upper low to our east continuing to spin across the Ohio Valley.
An area of low pressure aloft will provide periods of showers and thunderstorms through Thursday.
212 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 A large upper level low is dropping southeast out of the Great Lakes and is going to set up shop over the eastern seaboard for about the next five days. This low and upper level trough is going to drive a frontal boundary into the area which will become quasi- stationary through the weekend.
Well, the wait is officially over and we can finally enjoy some fall conditions with cooler temperatures and dry air. The cold front is currently moving very slowly southeastward, and should be clear of all Alabama Counties very shortly. A deep closed upper low over the Great Lakes region will dig southeast today and send a reinforcing shot of cooler air into central Alabama tonight.
327 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016 Cold front is clearly depicted on the latest sfc analysis. The upper trough axis is providing the post frontal lift with some pva moving through the area. Thus, will continue with the higher pops east theme for the fcst. Moving forward, the upper low will move very slowly southward through tomorrow afternoon.
302 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016 Upper low continues to meander southeastward toward central Indiana this afternoon. Next batch of scattered showers is starting to move into areas around Bloomington and Champaign as the next trough rotates into central Illinois. Areas further west from the low toward the Illinois River valley will see some clearing take place this evening, as clouds are more diurnal in nature in that area. Upper low will drift south into central Kentucky on Thursday, with showers on the increase by mid morning across mainly the eastern half of the CWA. Once again, clouds will be in no hurry to move out, although the Illinois River valley may see enough sunshine to boost temperatures into the lower 70s.
533 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016 Upper low is sinking south out of the Great Lakes region and into the Ohio Valley while upper ridging is strengthening over the Rockies. At the surface, a cold front extends from western KS into northern AR, with another shot of cooler air moving over the area. In addition, a cold front will also pass through during the Tue through Wed time frame which will increase rain chances. Cooler Canadian air will continue to advect south across central and eastern Kansas tonight.
With that said do expect the low cloud deck stretching from Devils Lake area through Dickey county to slowly progress east and expand a bit through the early morning hours. A large upper level ridge will dominate North Dakota's weather pattern into the weekend.
A cold front is sliding across Western Oklahoma and the Panhandle, with this front moving into West Central Texas late tonight and early Thursday morning. Cooler on Thursday afternoon behind the front, with highs in the mid and upper 70s. (Thursday Night through Wednesday) A quiet weather pattern is forecast through this weekend as weak upper level ridging dominates Texas.
Tonight Through Thursday A rather warm upper level low pressure trough over Southern California and the Desert Southwest will move north northeast bringing increased mid and upper level moisture into western Wyoming with some showers developing over the southwest mountains tonight. The low will weaken significantly as it moves north but will showers and isolated thunderstorms Thursday with generally mild temperatures.
215 PM MST WED SEP 28 2016 A low pressure system over northwest Mexico will continue to slowly move north through the Desert southwest into Thursday, resulting in variable cloudiness, cooler temperatures, and a threat of showers and thunderstorms.
Gradients will continue to trend onshore into the weekend as a trough approaches from the northwest.
The closed upper level low continues to slowly work southward, currently centered over east-central WI and should drop into Indiana by the afternoon. In the mean time, cloud cover has overtaken the northeast half to two thirds of the state and should slowly continue to spread through the day before diminishing in the evening as the low pulls away. With cloud cover, northerly winds firmly established and mixing to only around 900mb anticipated, dropped highs a degree or two into the lower 60s.
Upper low will be dropping into the area during the short term. A cold front will swing through tonight ushering in some cooler air. Better chance for showers looks to be tomorrow afternoon with upper low moving in.
The upper low currently over the OH Valley will more or less remain in place. Tilly Guidance has been consistently moving the upper low a bit further west for the past several runs.
A deep upper low pushes south across the eastern part of the country. with a cooler airmass moving over the area starting late Thursday. Highs Thursday are expected to range from the low 80s north to mid to upper 80s along the coast.
1253 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016 Backdoor cold front will bring chilly conditions to the region today.
/issued 419 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016/ Cold front just moving into the CWA yesterday morning was "supposed" to move to around the gulf coast but that didn't quite happen despite the northerly winds moving well into the coastal waters south of the area. Upper level low centered around the Great Lakes didn't move much which is likely the biggest inhibiting factor for fropa. Models still show that the upper low to the north will steadily move south to the Ohio River Valley and generally remain in place through the rest of this week.
350 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016 The upper low will continue to slowly slide southeastward towards the Ohio Valley during this time, with upper ridging building across the northern plains. Expect lows generally around 40, but with some variability in temps over the region, cooler locations could potentially see some 30s and patchy frost.
218 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 A cold front will slowly push into the area through tonight and Thursday. Cooler and drier more seasonable temperatures expected late in the week and over the weekend with little rain chances. Upper level low pressure over the Ohio Valley region will sink slightly southward tonight providing southwesterly flow aloft over the forecast area. The hi-resolution models show the highest coverage of storms from around 20Z-03Z. The highest coverage will shift east tonight with the front. Overnight lows are expected to be coolest west behind the front in the lower 60s with upper 60s east. Closed upper level low over the Ohio valley during the period. Guidance temperatures a little warmer than previous runs and cold advection lagging to the west.
High pressure ridging will again build over the forecast area for the next couple of days due to an upper low and trough approaching the Pacific Northwest coast.
Drier and cooler air will continue to filter southward as a secondary front drops southward tonight. An upper level closed low will rotate over the eastern US for the next several days, keeping Central Alabama in mid and upper level westerly to northwesterly flow. The low will be close enough that some sct to bkn cloud cover could spread down in the north Central Alabama at times, but generally mostly clear skies are expected through the end of the weekend.
Pesky upper low which is bringing today's rains will not move much during the short-term period.
Weak Nrly sfc wind /more vrb at KDRT/ become Nrly around 10 kts drng the day Thurs as additional front/reinforcing high pressure spreads south across the region.
304 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016 A ridge will remain over the plains with mild and dry weather persisting through the short term. Northeast winds are expected to increase this afternoon and will then turn more southerly as a closed low across the Great Lakes Region drops south into the Ohio valley and another low in the North Pacific digs and moves on shore. The movement of these features will shift the back side of the ridge over our area and put us into southerly flow. It will remain dry and mild on Thursday with high temperatures just a few degrees cooler tomorrow as the Great Lakes low pulls down a cooler airmass.
An upper ridge resided over the Central High Plains while southwest flow existed this afternoon over the Canadian Prairies. A deep trough over the Gulf of Alaska was drifting southeast.
348 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016 Issued at 3:48 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016 The cold front that moved through this morning is well to the south now, leaving us with northerly winds and drier conditions for the next few days. Tomorrow, the nearly stacked low pressure system centered over Indiana will continue to move slowly south, keeping us on the back- end side of the system with northerly winds.
142 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 A large upper level low brings unsettled weather into the area tonight. A broad and deep upper low over the Great Lakes region will move south over the OH Valley and WV tonight.
1220 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016 Water vapor satellite imagery/RAP 500mb analysis shows a closed low centered near Green Bay WI. Temperatures as of 2 am were in the upper 40s to the lower 50s. The closed low will sink south toward Indiana today with deep/cool cyclonic flow continuing across our region. another cooler than normal day on tap with highs topping off in the lower 60s. Closed low continues to sink southward into the Ohio River Valley Thursday into Thursday night which will allow default ridging across our region for clearing skies. Latest GFS/ECMWF in good agreement on lifting the closed low back north into the lower MI through the weekend, bringing with it cyclonic flow and threat for showers/sprinkles back into our region.
219 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016 A large, slow moving low pressure system will settle into the Tennessee Valley tonight, then lift through the Northeast this weekend.
1239 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016 A cold front will continue to move through the state this afternoon with winds turning to the northwest in its wake. A cold front will move through the state this afternoon and evening and winds will become northwest behind the front, then north during the overnight hours.
Overnight lows will range from the upper 50s across the Hill Country to the lower and mid 60s elsewhere. A cool night is in store for Thursday evening with overnight lows dropping to the lower 50s across the Hill Country.
345 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016 A well amplified upper level pattern remains in place across the CONUS this afternoon, with satellite imagery showing areas of low pressure spinning over the Midwest region and over southern CA. In between, ridging extends north from high pressure near the TX/Mexico border into central Canada, with north-northwesterly flow over the Central Plains. At the surface, a frontal boundary sits south of the CWA, while high pressure sits over the Northern Plains.
Reinforcing surge of high pressure/front is prog to arrive late tonight into Thursday morning.
Radar still shows a few showers out in the far offshore waters of the Upper Texas coast where the previous cold front has stalled and is in the process of dissipating. Surface analysis this afternoon shows weak high pressure over much of Texas with a cold front pushing through Oklahoma. Water vapor imagery and upper air analysis shows deep upper low over Indiana with ridging through the High Plains. Hi-res mesoscale and medium range synoptic guidance all push the cold front through the area after sunrise tomorrow.
Large upper level cutoff low pressure located over eastern Illinois/northern Indiana looks to meander south-southeast into the lower portion of Ohio Valley tonight. the ARW-NMM WRF, HRRR, NAM12, RAP, and HopWRF) keep the low level RH (AOA 70%) over much of the forecast area out through Thursday morning. Even the GFS and ECMWF keep the low level RH across Iowa tonight. The upper low will then move to the OH Valley with strong subsidence across IA and move little through the end of the work week, even drifting back northward toward where it is currently.
An upper low will continue to drop into the Ohio Valley today pushing a back door cold front across western Kansas. Expect plenty of sunshine today with highs in the mid to upper 70s from Hays to Garden City and Dodge, with warmer low 80s from Liberal to Syracuse and west. For tonight, mostly clear skies prevail, with a cooler ridge of high pressure moving into western Kansas. Lows will be colder and in the low to mid 40s.
223 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016 Canadian high pressure will continue to build into the region from the north through Thursday. The high will remain parked to our north while low pressure over the midwest drifts slowly north and east.
Near-term guidance continue to show strong support for a band of showers and embedded storms developing on the south side of the large upper low just to our north. Freezing levels are low and winds aloft would argue for some gusts mixing down in the stronger cells. A strong vort max will enter the region today as a deep upper low and cold front dive south into the Ohio Valley. Quite the gradient of temps are expected today as convection and the cooler airmass limits highs over southern IN/north central KY to the upper 60s while south central KY warms into the mid 70s. However, will still keep 20-30% POPs overnight as lobes of vorticity continue to rotate around the upper low sparking some convection. With the cold core directly over central KY, temperatures will be limited to the low to mid 60s.
This low which is centered over Lake Michigan this morning will sink southward today and tonight into the central Ohio River Valley. A cold front associated with this system is dropping through the CWA early this morning.
113 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016 A broad circulation around a deep low pressure system across the Great Lakes, will continue to wrap moisture and possibly a few light rain showers across west central Wisconsin and east central, south central Minnesota this afternoon. The other concern today is the persistent cloud cover which was to scatter out overnight, but with the system a bit further to the west and an Upper Ridge expected to build across southeast Canada, the clouds will likely linger into the evening. Eventually drier air will filter southwest as the Upper Ridge continues to build north of the Great Lakes.
309 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016 Upper low is sinking south out of the Great Lakes region and into the Ohio Valley while upper ridging is strengthening over the Rockies. At the surface, a cold front extends from western KS into northern AR, with another shot of cooler air moving over the area. In addition, a cold front will also pass through during the Tue through Wed time frame which will increase rain chances.
Tonight Through Thursday A rather warm upper level low pressure trough over southern California and the Desert Southwest will move north northeast bringing increased mid and upper level moisture into western Wyoming with some showers developing over the southwest mountains tonight. The low will weaken significantly as it moves north but will continue to pump up moisture into Wyoming with increased clouds, showers and isolated thunderstorms Thursday with generally mild temperatures.
153 PM PDT WED SEP 28 2016 A mid to upper level low will continue to move northward over the area today, bringing variable mid and high clouds and the potential for a few showers and thunderstorms, mostly in the mountains.
225 PM MDT Wed Sep 28 2016 Deep closed low will remain in place over the great lakes with nw conus troughing ongoing. Mean ridging has resulted in the northern plains. However, the nw conus trough will now be close enough to influence the region with periphery impulses. Pressure falls will ensue tonight with reflected se flow under lee side troughing.
342 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016 A broad upper trough will become cut off over the middle Ohio River Valley while an upper ridge builds over the Plains. A cold front currently in Oklahoma and Arkansas will quickly move across our area by sunrise Thursday morning.
145 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 A large upper level low brings unsettled weather into the area tonight. A broad and deep upper low over the Great Lakes region will move south over the OH Valley and WV tonight.
The main upper-level cyclone is still to our west of north TX and will move east throughout the day. Cooler temperatures aloft will maintain the potential for thunderstorms today, although relatively cool surface temperatures will hamper instability. As the upper low pulls off to the east tonight, rain chances will taper off from west to east and should be clear of the CWA by 12z Monday. Temperatures today will range from the upper 50s across northeast AR to the low/mid 60s over northeast MS. Cooler and drier weather is anticipated on Monday, with temperatures peaking around 50 degrees.
The wind will turn to the northwest shortly after sunrise Sunday with the passage of a Pacific cold front. The passage of the cold front will also bring some MVFR ceilings to the Metroplex terminals Sunday morning but all low clouds will scatter before midday. The surface and upper level lows will move east or east-southeast across southern Oklahoma tonight and into Arkansas by late Sunday morning. As a Pacific cold front moves through late tonight and Sunday morning, winds will shift to the northwest. Highs Monday will be in the lower 60s northeast to lower 70s southwest.
After this storm passes by mid-week, we will remain in fairly cool air with 500mb heights staying quite low as the longwave trough remains in place across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. The end of the forecast period will have daytime and overnight temperatures right around the climatological average (highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s and lows around 20) Light rain will slowly dissolve through the overnight hours as the upper low responsible will pull away from the western plains. a little weaker at HYS farther away from the low.
456 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017 A warm front will extend through the forecast area today ahead of strong low pressure. The low will be near the area tonight. The low will begin to lift north of the region Monday.
Do not expect much precipitation for the high plains through Monday afternoon. This forecast may change quickly due to the uncertain position of the low pressure system.
346 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017 A warm front will extend through the forecast area today ahead of strong low pressure. The low will be near the area tonight. The low will begin to lift north of the region Monday.
206 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017 A warm front will extend through the forecast area today ahead of strong low pressure. The low will be near the area tonight. The low will begin to lift north of the region Monday.
High pressure will start to build into the Plains States. The area of high pressure will then move across the region for Monday and Monday night for a couple of periods with quiet weather. The NAM solutions definitely looks to be out of line compared to the other models as it looks to be too flat with the short wave trough and never develops a closed upper level low.
Today Through Monday Night Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop this morning, as a cold front pushes into the state, and a cutoff upper low over the Red River Valley of Texas and Oklahoma moves into the Arklatex Region. Isolated/ scattered thunderstorms will be possible, as the upper low provides enough elevated instability. Upper low will move eastward tonight, with precipitation ending. Temperatures will be a little cooler tonight and Monday. Thus, temperatures, though cooler, will still remain above seasonal averages.
Mist and fog overnight and into this morning with freezing temperatures have led to slick road conditions and hoar frost across many northeast Montana locations. The general trough of low pressure across the region will finally begin to lift north and east of the area later today, taking with it, the low clouds and fog over our central and eastern zones. A short period of upper-level ridging and no sensible weather is expected to move through the northeast Montana this evening through Monday morning.
Unfortunately, there is a lack of saturation in the dendritic layer, so may see some freezing drizzle develop in the Marshall- Windom vicinity. On Sunday, we'll still stratus again try to erode across the west as northwest flow becomes more established as low pressure moves east across the southern plains.
Issued at 202 AM CST CST Sun Jan 22 2017 The exact position of the deformation field this evening still remains uncertain with the GFS a bit further northwest with the low track. The precip area should shift east of the area completely by Monday evening with a ridge quickly moving in and diminishing flow.
1008 PM MST Sat Jan 21 2017 Based on the current trend of the shower activity circulating around the low south of the Tri State Region. With current temps above freezing. Upper level trough is currently deepening over the four corners region with diffluent flow aloft spreading over the Southern Plains towards SW Kansas. Sunday: Behind upper level system air mass will be slightly cooler, but there may be little change in high temps due to clearing skies and good mixing.
As a low pressure system moves overhead during the day Sunday, winds will become more westerly or northwesterly and showers will help to mix gusty winds to the surface. Surface analysis had a 996mb low near Bastrop Louisiana with the associated warm front extending east just north of Interstate 20. Mid afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP analysis had a closed low spinning over the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles. Our CWA was located upstream from the low in an increasingly diffluent flow region with increasing WAA ahead of the approaching low pressure system. The approaching cold core low will steepen mid level lapse rates to 7-8C/km leading to vertical totals in the lower 30s.
Upper level trough is currently deepening over the four corners region with diffluent flow aloft spreading over the Southern Plains towards SW Kansas. Sunday: Behind upper level system air mass will be slightly cooler, but there may be little change in high temps due to clearing skies and good mixing.
335 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017 Strengthening upper level low is located over the Red River OK/TX border region this morning. However, as the aforementioned upper low tracks eastward, rainfall within the deformation zone will increase 1-3 deg lat to the left of the track. The upper low should move roughly along i-20, across northern AL and nrn Ga.
Radar imagery does show some returns within this area of deformation, falling as liquid (dry mid-upper layers with saturated low level layer above freezing) within SFC temps just above freezing.
334 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017 Upper trough passing over East TX this morning will continue to move away from the region through the day. As it does an upper ridge will build in from the west.
312 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017 It is becoming a bit more apparent now that the upper level low that will push east from the southern Plains today will stay a bit farther south than was expected yesterday at this time. High pressure (not of arctic or Canadian origin) will then build east into the region for the remainder of the short term, with dry conditions and temps remaining at or above normal.