Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Strengthening southerly flow tonight ahead of an approaching upper trof will yield warmer temperatures FRI morning amid increasing MSTR and cloud cover, with rain chances increasing through the day as widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms precede the associated frontal boundary. The airmass behind this front will be a bit cooler, but temperatures SAT and SAT night are still expected to be at or just above seasonal normals.
Lows clouds are drifting across the area but ceilings do improve after the initial surge so enough dry air still around to mitigate the impacts of low level moisture behind the cold front. Will be a much cooler day with highs in the 30s with a few 40s with easterly winds. Friday will have increasing clouds as the upper high moves east into the dakotas and a cyclonic southerly flow moves into western Montana. A leeside area of low pressure forms over the central zones which does help support an area of better convergence over southeast Montana.
919 AM EST Thu Dec 10 2020 Morning low temperatures this morning dropped into the mid to upper 50s across the island chain, which is close to a carbon copy of yesterday morning, albeit a few degrees warmer in the upper Keys.
Expect cloudy conditions across the area today behind a cold front along with some light snow developing, mainly over the upslope areas. Also, areas where there have been morning inversions for the week should also be much warmer at night.
Temperatures have remained somewhat mild in our north where precipitation is occurring and just recently have started to cool closer to freezing. Ice is being produced aloft according to dual pol radar matching RAP proximity soundings, and temp profiles have tended to support mainly a rain or snow with no reports of freezing rain/sleet yet. Impacts related to light slushy snow appears to be the main threat, though if CAA undercuts the western and southern edge of precip area we could see brief freezing rain (confidence isn't high).
As of 09z this morning, upper-level flow has become more zonal across the Plains with the cut-off low off the Baja California coast beginning to progress to the east.
448 AM MST Thu Dec 10 2020 The cold front has arrived early this morning, as indicated by the winds shifting to the north or northwest across a large portion of the CWA. The higher potential for accumulations will be over the higher terrain & some adjacent areas into the I-25 corridor, but given the bulk of mid & upper-level energy shifting well to our south, impacts will likely be limited at best with just some slick roads and periods of lower visibility possible. Expect 1-3 inches of snow w/ the highest amts over the I-80 Summit and Snowy Range.
Dewpoints across the area are running in the single digits near the NM border and only in the lower 20s well into central TX.
Expecting a nice day with highs in the low 70 with light and variable winds.
Cooler temperatures today with highs in the 30s, though still above normal for this time of year. High pressure will build today at the surface behind the exiting cold front. Cooler post-frontal air mass will lead to highs mostly in the 30s across the state.
629 AM EST Thu Dec 10 2020 High pressure overhead today moves off the coast by Friday.
The first disturbance will arrive Friday afternoon as a splitting trough moves across the Pacific Northwest. Model guidance continues to suggest this trough will close off over northwest Montana.
Surface obs show the cold front has already worked through Winner, Chamberlain, and Aberdeen, where winds have already switched to the northwest. The previously mentioned cold front continues to move through today and exits the region around the noon hour. High temperatures today will be cooler, reaching into the 40s, although still above normal with average highs near 30 degrees.
An upper level low currently over the northern Baja, will move east-northeast across the Southern Plains tonight and Friday.
925 AM EST Thu Dec 10 2020 Dry with moderating temperatures through Friday as upper level ridging builds.
330 AM CST Thu Dec 10 2020 Cooler temperatures today with highs in the 30s, though still above normal for this time of year. High pressure will build today at the surface behind the exiting cold front. Cooler post-frontal air mass will lead to highs mostly in the 30s across the state.
432 AM EST Thu Dec 10 2020 High pressure passing by to our south today will bring an end to any residual rain and wet snow showers. as a the axis of high pressure will pass over the region.
843 AM EST Thu Dec 10 2020 High pressure overhead today moves off the coast by Friday.
420 AM MST Thu Dec 10 2020 The cold front has arrived early this morning, as indicated by the winds shifting to the north or northwest across a large portion of the CWA. The higher potential for accumulations will be over the higher terrain & some adjacent areas into the I-25 corridor, but given the bulk of mid & upper-level energy shifting well to our south, impacts will likely be limited at best with just some slick roads and periods of lower visibility possible. Expect 1-3 inches of snow w/ the highest amts over the I-80 Summit and Snowy Range.
This is due to a weak high pressure moving eastward across the Gulf of Mexico.
A dry cold front dropping down from the northwest will bring cooler temperatures and gusty north winds to the region going into the weekend. A northern stream trough is poised to quickly slide southeast across the Great Basin tonight in the wake of trough exiting Arizona. Residual moisture from the earlier trough will be lifted by the quick moving trough leading to a chance of showers in northern Mohave County Friday. Cold frontal passage will bring our temperatures back down closer to normal through the period.
321 AM CST Thu Dec 10 2020 As of 09z this morning, upper-level flow has become more zonal across the Plains with the cut-off low off the Baja California coast beginning to progress to the east.
Upper level zonal flow will remain in place over the region today, then will see a trough approach tonight and become centered over the central part of the country on Friday. Will see some fairly gusty winds behind the front today before high pressure settles in over the area tonight and Friday. Much cooler air, compared to what we have seen the last several days, will move in behind the exiting front as well. Highs on Friday will be in the lower to mid 30s.
A trough over the eastern US is currently lifting to the north becoming more zonal over the area. With the trough in place, expect a nice pleasant day with mostly clear skies. Highs today will be in the lower 70s. A large trough will develop over the western U.
An area of low pressure will cross Arizona today with showers, isolated thunderstorms, and high elevation snow showers. Satellite shows a low pressure center just south of Yuma this morning with warm moisture moving northward across Arizona. The low will become an open wave and move northeastward across Arizona today. 80 inch over the highest elevations of the White Mountains. The second and colder trough still on track to move quickly into Arizona from the northwest early Friday. This trough is trending drier and accumulations are much less than the first storm.
This is expected to continue through the rest of today and into this evening before the trough axis crosses to our east and drier air moves into the upper levels of the atmosphere.
402 AM PST Thu Dec 10 2020 Dry cold front will move through the region tonight, bringing gusty wind through the wind-prone areas of Central California by the evening. A short wave trough off the Pacific NW will move through NCal and into the Great Basin tonight. Thus little threat of precipitation but models show very dry air over the high sierra with strong NW winds tonight into Friday morning.
Today Through Friday Night Main discussion remains on a cold front progged to enter the fcst area near the end of the short term which will bring widespread rain chances and the potential for a few thunderstorms to the Natural State. The aforementioned H500 trof and sfc cyclone will remain juxtapositioned and continue to lift to the N/E over the KS/OK/MO/AR border region. Overnight, a tailing cold frnt will enter Wrn AR, with cooler air beginning to enter behind the frnt and PoPs diminishing as it passes, lkly clearing the state by 12Z Sat morning.
As this low shifts east late this morning, skies will start to clear leaving mainly high clouds behind. A dry cold front dropping down from the northwest will bring cooler temperatures and gusty north winds to the region going into the weekend. The upper low responsible for the cloud cover and light rain showers over Mohave County will continue to track east this morning. So far, none of the local gauges in Mohave County have shown any measurable rain, but a few hundredths will be possible over the higher terrain this morning. The next trough to impact the region will dive into northern Nevada this afternoon and bring increasing winds to portions of the area.
High pressure moving in from the west will keep the weather quiet through this forecast period. Lingering high pressure will continue to keep the area dry into the coming weekend.
532 AM CST Thu Dec 10 2020 A cold front over the Northern Plains early this morning will move south and east into the Central Plains states today. With temperatures hovering at or just above freezing, we're still thinking accumulations will be on the light side. Periods of light snow will remain possible across central Kansas Friday evening and Friday night as the mid/upper trough moves across the region.
609 AM EST Thu Dec 10 2020 Dry with moderating temperatures through Friday as upper level ridging builds.
This condition will subside before sunrise as the cold front approaches. The cold front is expected to be just past KBVO by 12Z tomorrow. /Issued 435 AM CST Thu Dec 10 2020/ Another day of record or near record breaking warmth is expected today, with afternoon temperatures warming into the low to mid 70s.
1135 AM CST Thu Dec 10 2020 Sky cover continues to be the main challenge today as cold pool continues to spread south behind the cold front. Temperatures have remained somewhat mild in our north where precipitation is occurring and just recently have started to cool closer to freezing. Ice is being produced aloft according to dual pol radar matching RAP proximity soundings, and temp profiles have tended to support mainly a rain or snow with no reports of freezing rain/sleet yet. Impacts related to light slushy snow appears to be the main threat, though if CAA undercuts the western and southern edge of precip area we could see brief freezing rain (confidence isn't high).
Winds are light from the south-southwest as we remain on the back side of high pressure. A trough over the eastern US is currently lifting to the north becoming more zonal over the area. With the trough in place, expect a nice pleasant day with mostly clear skies. Highs today will be in the lower 70s. A large trough will develop over the western U.
Numerical guidance was on the low side for tomorrow, but with the southwest flow and moisture advection, went well above advertised.
Highs in the upper 30s to the lower 40s still looks good. Upper level zonal flow will remain in place over the region today, then will see a trough approach tonight and become centered over the central part of the country on Friday. Will see some fairly gusty winds behind the front today before high pressure settles in over the area tonight and Friday. Much cooler air, compared to what we have seen the last several days, will move in behind the exiting front as well. Highs on Friday will be in the lower to mid 30s.
1043 AM MST Thu Dec 10 2020 The cold front has arrived early this morning, as indicated by the winds shifting to the north or northwest across a large portion of the CWA. The higher potential for accumulations will be over the higher terrain & some adjacent areas into the I-25 corridor, but given the bulk of mid & upper-level energy shifting well to our south, impacts will likely be limited at best with just some slick roads and periods of lower visibility possible. Expect 1-3 inches of snow w/ the highest amts over the I-80 Summit and Snowy Range.
Tonight and Friday A cold front will move across the forecast area during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Some very light snow or freezing drizzle is possible in Vilas county late tonight but otherwise no precipitation is expected.
High pressure currently in the Gulf of Mexico will drift across the state and into the Atlantic as we head into Friday and then up the east coast.
Near full insolation will lead to another warmer than normal day for the ArkLaMiss. A weak disturbance aloft moving east through the region today, will basically go unseen as broad mid/upper level ridging persists over the region. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, will result in increasing southerly flow across the forecast area today. Highs this afternoon, under mostly sunny skies, will reside in the lower and middle 70s. Lows will be slightly warmer as a result, as they range the upper 30s to around 50.
The switch in wind direction will help bring in the stratus deck into my eastern counties this evening, possibly as far west as the Highway 83 corridor. Cool day on Friday with most locations not seeing above freezing for daytime highs, though winds will be light and should see decreasing clouds in the afternoon.
1230 PM EST Thu Dec 10 2020 High pressure overhead today moves off the coast by Friday.
A low pressure system moving east across Arizona will bring light showers to southeast Utah through this afternoon.
The upper trough is centered over AZ at this time with the trough axis in the vicinity of Tucson. All this will gradually track to the east this afternoon into the evening hours as the upper trough continues moving into New Mexico later this evening. Otherwise dry and a bit cooler than normal with a light northwesterly breeze eastern areas.
By Friday, and upper-level trough over southwestern Canada begins to phase with a trough over the southwestern U.
312 PM EST Thu Dec 10 2020 Broad ridging aloft was over the region this afternoon, with a very weak wave embedded in the flow bringing some cirrus. In the lower levels, south to southwest flow was occurring with warm air advection. Good radiating conditions combined with the weak warm air advection will again result in ridge/valley temperature differences. A cold front was laid out from west TX to Lake Superior at mid afternoon, supported by an upper trough axis further west. The trough and cold front will continue to move east, with south to southwest low level flow persisting over our area ahead of the front.
Moist isentropic ascent was becoming displaced to the northeast of the trough axis as it begins to pivot east-northeast and phase with an intensifying polar jet streak centered over the Great Lakes region. A cold front was draped central Colorado and west-central Kansas, and continues to gradually move south and should enter the CWA later tonight. The cold front will pass through CWA tomorrow morning, with a slight northwesterly breeze to follow in its wake along with much cooler temperatures compared to what has been observed today and the previous few days.
1127 AM EST Thu Dec 10 2020 Dry with moderating temperatures through Friday as upper level ridging builds.
An area of low pressure will cross Arizona today with rain showers and high elevation snow showers. Satellite and radar imagery indicate the low pressure system was centered near PHX at 9 AM. Moderate rain showers are wrapping around the low center from the northeast through west, and producing rainfall rates of. The low will become an open wave and move northeastward across Arizona today. 80 inch over the highest elevations of the White Mountains. The second and colder trough still on track to move quickly into Arizona from the northwest early Friday. This trough is trending drier and accumulations are much less than the first storm.
259 PM CST Thu Dec 10 2020 The cold frontal passage earlier this morning and increasing high clouds have kept temperatures much cooler than earlier in the week.
(This evening through Friday) Will see an increase in clouds tonight as a closed low over AZ opens up and shifts east/northeast into the central and southern Plains tonight into the day Friday. As this occurs a cold front, currently located over southwest KS southward across the OK/TX panhandles will move southeast across the area. As the upper wave approaches this evening, the associated lift will aid in the development of showers along and ahead of the advancing cold front. The cold front will bring an end to a stretch of beautiful weather with most areas seeing temperatures some 15 to as much as 25 degrees colder on Friday.
216 PM EST Thu Dec 10 2020 Dry and warmer through Friday beneath an upper level ridge.
206 PM CST Thu Dec 10 2020 The cold front currently across the eastern portion of the area will continue to push east through this evening. In addition, with the low level flow becoming northeasterly, the departure of the low clouds will be slow at best. Temperatures will be cooler than they have been, but still above normal.
A warm moist conveyor plume of precip will spread across the forecast area early Friday in advance of the sfc cold front with an uptick in convective coverage and intensity likely as the cold front overtakes the deep moist axis during the afternoon hours. A brief window of stronger instability may develop by afternoon across SE OK and support a few stronger storms before the cold front sweep east of the forecast area by mid to late Friday evening.
157 PM EST Thu Dec 10 2020 Dry and warmer through Friday beneath an upper level ridge.
The area remains under the influence of weak ridging aloft, but changes are on the way for tonight as a deepening upper level trough over the four corners begins to lift out over the central CONUS. As divergence aloft increases ahead of the upper trough over South- Central Texas tonight, resulting in increasing cloud cover and a moistening of the mid-levels. As a result, widely scattered rain showers are expected to develop ahead of an approaching sfc cold front overnight. The cold front will arrive after sunset on Friday, bringing with it cooler and drier conditions to the Texas Hill Country.
1151 AM PST Thu Dec 10 2020 Dry cold front will move through the region tonight, bringing gusty wind through the wind-prone areas of Central California by the evening. A long wave troughing occurring over the western half of the country this week will bring a much needed pattern change. Air across the San Joaquin Valley remains stagnate, but we should see some improvement in that realm at least over the next 24 hours as a cold front will move through the area. As that system exits the western CONUS the upper level flow once again turns to more zonal as the Western Pacific Ridge edges east over the West Coast.
High pressure will build northeast of the region this period. For tonight, a weak trough will develop along the coast. In addition due to the weak trough along the shore, anticipate another area with better low level moisture to develop fog near the GA coast. In general highs will be about 3 or 4 degrees cooler east of I95.
Mostly clear skies and southerly winds are expected to continue over the CWA this afternoon and into the evening hours ahead of a low pressure system and cold front approaching from the west. Rain chances also become possible late tonight for Eastern Oklahoma and Friday morning for Northwest Arkansas as the low and cold front move into the region. The greater rain chances look to be 12-18z Friday from west to east with the cold front pushing into Northeast Oklahoma.
An upper level trough approaching from the northwest will bring scattered snow showers over the mountains late tonight and Friday.
230 PM CST Thu Dec 10 2020 A weak upper ridge over the area giving way to an approaching trough moving into NM this afternoon. This trough will weaken and lift northward as it moves across NM and TX. however a secondary trough comes down on the backside of it Friday.
Otherwise, warmer than normal temperatures will continue through the period with rain chances returning to the west by late afternoon Friday. Mid afternoon surface analysis had a 1020mb high centered over the northeast Gulf that was ridging back across the Gulf coast states. The resulting high pressure surface and aloft over our CWA will result in mostly clear skies tonight and allow for the development of dense fog in the south by morning. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for the Highway 84 corridor.
A cold front will sweep through E OK late morning and into AR by afternoon. A warm moist conveyor plume of precip will spread across the forecast area early Friday in advance of the sfc cold front with an uptick in convective coverage and intensity likely as the cold front overtakes the deep moist axis during the afternoon hours. A brief window of stronger instability may develop by afternoon across SE OK and support a few stronger storms before the cold front sweep east of the forecast area by mid to late Friday evening.
A weak upper trough will cross the area tonight, bringing a chance of a little light snow or flurries to northeastern Wyoming the Black Hills area and far southwestern South Dakota.
351 PM CST Thu Dec 10 2020 Current surface analysis charts show high pressure centered over the southeast. An upper-level trough is located upstream over the desert southwest. Winds are light from the south-southwest as we remain on the back side of high pressure. The aforementioned upper-level trough will eject out of the southwest and initiate the development of a mature wave over the next couple of days. The low pressure center will track through the southern great plains and into the upper mid-west.
Surface ridging influences will continue to shift further E.
As the next weather system approaches the region to end the week, the warm front will begin sliding into the area Friday.
508 PM CST Thu Dec 10 2020 Occasional northwest gusts from 30 to 40 mph in the wake of this morning's cold frontal passage will continue through the rest of the afternoon, diminishing after sunset.
The guidance blend is in place for Friday's highs, which is slightly cooler than the short term model blend.
An area of low pressure will bring rain showers and high elevation snow showers to central and eastern Arizona through this evening. There is a slight chance of flurries as well across the high county.
High temperatures will range from the lower to middle 40s northwest of the Illinois River. to the lower 60s south of I-70. This is ahead of the Low pressure system that will impact the area to end the week and begin the weekend. This will swing the jet stream across the southern Plains Friday, elongating the warm nose of the advancing Low pressure system. This lifting will be aided by the High pressure system off the mid- Atlantic coast, lifting further ne into the Midwest. Heading into the overnight, the Low pressure core will arrive to the Midwest.
The same satellite image is showing a rather elongated trough of low pressure making its way across the Pacific Northwest.
/issued 556 PM CST Thu Dec 10 2020/ For the 11/00Z TAF update, an upper-level trough will swing NE of our airspace, with a cold front influencing the next MVFR/IFR cigs/vis impacts to all terminals.
The cold frontal passage earlier this morning and increasing high clouds have kept temperatures much cooler than earlier in the week.
On Friday, the low clouds across the east will likely hold in for much of the day as surface heating and mixing will be insufficient to break them up. Friday will be our coldest day yet in awhile with the caa and clouds with highs in the lower to mid 30s.
330 PM CST Thu Dec 10 2020 Another in a series of pleasant days today with afternoon temperatures rising into the low to mid 70s below a handful of isolated cumulus. Clouds will continue to filter in overnight as moisture increases ahead of an approaching cold frontal boundary.