Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Mid/upper level low pressure currently located over the CO/NM/TX borders is forecast to drift eastward today and then lift northeastward over central KS overnight. Most locations should stay in the clouds today since the low level moisture holds in place. A surface cold front beneath the mid/upper level low pressure sweeps through overnight. Although can not rule out a few flakes mixing in with the rain if temps were to be a few degrees cooler aloft. Upper low shifts quickly off to the northeast through the day on Wednesday.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE HIGH CLOUDS. SO DID NOT INCREASE THE HIGH TEMPS. 73 /ISSUED 619 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015/ BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BRINGS SHOWERS AND LOWER CIG VALUES.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WARM. WILL UPDATE TO ADJUST MORNING/AFTERNOON WORDING CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 68 59 68 49 / 10 40 100 40 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 67 55 72 51 / 10 10 100 90 OAK RIDGE, TN 66 55 70 50 / 10 10 100 80 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 66 49 71 52 / 10 10 90 100 NC.
AS SCT CONVECTION THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS A SQUALL LINE ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER SE OK/ECNTRL TX CONTINUES TO MARCH E ACROSS THE REGION. S WINDS 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WSW AND DIMINISH TO 10-15KTS FROM W TO E THIS AFTERNOON PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. RADAR MOSAICS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A STEADY PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EDGING TOWARD TERRELL TEXAS NOW AND SHOULD BE INTO TYLER FOR THE MORNING RUSH TO WORK AND SCHOOL. BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE THE REAL DIFFERENCE ON TEMPS AND A LIGHT JACKET IS A GREAT IDEA ESPECIALLY FOR THE SCHOOL KIDS.
1007 AM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY.
851 AM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A MILDER RETURN FLOW RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THEN TODAY.
Upper level low currently located over the Oklahoma Texas Panhandles. Some cloud cover could push back into Northeast Oklahoma this evening as the upper low moves over the region.
651 AM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY.
626 AM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY THEN SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
Some wrap around moisture with passage of upper low likely to result in low-end VFR ceilings across NE OK late in the forecast period. Not expecting any precipitation with the upper level low as it pulls out across Kansas tonight.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.
606 AM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A MILDER RETURN FLOW RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THEN TODAY.
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE DEEPENING/OCCLUDING CYCLONE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SMALL AREA OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MAY ALSO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW CENTER AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION.
/ISSUED 412 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015/ UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ENE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING AND CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK TO SKIRT ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT SOUTH OF RATON WHERE LIGHT SNOW WAS REPORTED AND GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE FROPA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST. TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT AND PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LEAD TO ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ALMOST AREA WIDE.
Temperatures are pretty similar to 24 hours ago in the valley, but the mountain ridges are warmer - indicative of a strengthening inversion and stronger high pressure. Milder daytime temps are expected due to strengthening high pressure.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S AND MAY APPROACH MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
606 AM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN EXIT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THUS DECREASING CLOUDS WEST TO EAST TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING WEST.
OCCASIONALLY DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH RAIN. FORECASTS FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT -- AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO THE LOWER/MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND EASTERLY BREEZES.
412 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ENE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING AND CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK TO SKIRT ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT SOUTH OF RATON WHERE LIGHT SNOW WAS REPORTED AND GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE FROPA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST. TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT AND PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LEAD TO ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ALMOST AREA WIDE.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
These gusty winds should help the warm air advection, causing afternoon temps to be much warmer than normal. Track of the upper low currently over northeast New Mexico will take it into northeast Kansas by early Wednesday, before it opens up and becomes absorbed into a digging wave in the northern stream.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO KANSAS THE BACK EDGE DEFORMATION BAND IS MATURING WITH A LARGER HEAVY SNOW BAND DEVELOPING BETWEEN DENVER AND LIMON. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY A BIT MORE AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD. MEANWHILE BEHIND THIS BAND THE NORTH WINDS LIMITED THE PRECIPITATION AND KEPT TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER LAST EVENING.
AHEAD OF THE WELL ADVERTISED COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY EWD OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES. WITH THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SE REGION BY MID WEEK. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE THE COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO CROSS INTO THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS DIVES SEWD INTO THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGIONS HEADING TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE HIGH MAY BECOME REINFORCED BY THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. WHICH IF THE CASE MAY RESULT IN SUBFREEZING TEMPS AGAIN FOR THE TN VALLEY. 09 BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BRINGS SHOWERS AND LOWER CIG VALUES.
1030 AM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A MILDER RETURN FLOW RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THEN TODAY.
STRENGTHENING WAA REGIME OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL LEAD TO A MUCH WARMER DAY FOR THE MID STATE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S ANTICIPATED. AND ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER COULD RESULT IN HIGHS BEING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST.
FARTHER WEST A COLD FRONT IS MOVING EAST AND NR A HALLOCK TO JUST EAST OF GRAND FORKS TO FARGO LINE. IN THE CLEARER AIRMASS TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S WHILE STAY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE CLOUDY AREA. THE SYSTEM FROM SASKATCHEWAN MOVING EAST WILL JOIN UP WITH THE MAIN 500 MB TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST THRU MN/WI AND MAKE ONE LARGER 500 MB LOW IN NW ONTARIO/BOUNDARY WATER REGION OF MINNESOTA.
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE PUSHING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE DEEP AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW AND BROAD UPPER TROF DRIVING THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF NOT MOVING THROUGH UNTIL WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MARK ITS PASSAGE WITH A DELAY OF THE COOLER AIR UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING THOUGH 88D IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS SNOW ALOFT. /ISSUED 412 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015/ UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ENE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING AND CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK TO SKIRT ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT SOUTH OF RATON WHERE LIGHT SNOW WAS REPORTED AND GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE FROPA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST. TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT AND PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LEAD TO ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ALMOST AREA WIDE.
536 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015 12Z TAF CYCLE LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION AROUND A MID AND UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL IMPACT THE THREE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 00Z TO 05Z WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL GO DRY FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ENSEMBLES STILL SHOWING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS PERIOD.
The surface cold front was moving across Eastern Texas with a surge of 65-70 deg dewpoints moving northward across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. At mid and upper levels, the main energy remains well back to the west associated with a deep trough/upper low across Eastern New Mexico. Partly cloudy skies this afternoon will help temperatures warm into the upper 70s across Srn Alabama and Georgia and into the lower 80s across North Florida.
THE LOW CENTER WILL BE OVER THE PANHANDLE REGION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT PROVIDED BY 20-30 KT WINDS AT RIDGE LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SNOWFALL OVER THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS PAST SUNRISE. THE OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTOR AS WEST WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH BUFFET THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
STORMS ALSO CONTINUING ALONG THE COLD FRONT (WHICH IS ALSO STEADILY MOV- ING EAST THIS MORNING) AND IS THEN EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE DRY LINE A BIT LATER. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD PROGS NOW TRENDING A BIT MORE COOLER/WETTER FOR THE WEEKEND. THE AGGRESSIVE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FCST TO PRODUCE SCT PCPN FOR SAT. MOS TEMPS MUCH COOLER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND HAVE ADJ- USTED GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. 41 A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAK THIS MORNING AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION.
910 AM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN EXIT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RADAR MOSAICS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A STEADY PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EDGING TOWARD TERRELL TEXAS NOW AND SHOULD BE INTO TYLER FOR THE MORNING RUSH TO WORK AND SCHOOL. BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE THE REAL DIFFERENCE ON TEMPS AND A LIGHT JACKET IS A GREAT IDEA ESPECIALLY FOR THE SCHOOL KIDS.
WARM FRONT BROUGHT LIGHT SNOW TO BURNS. WARM FRONTAL LIFT WILL KEEP SNOW GOING ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS TODAY. A FAST MOVING STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP NW TO SE FROM SEATTLE AND PORTLAND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NE OREGON ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND TO ALONG A FAIRFIELD-KUNA-BURNS JUNCTION ZONE AROUND 5 AM WEDNESDAY. HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPOSED RIDGES.
KWWR AND KGAG HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR MVFR CEILINGS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA NEAR THE MID/UPPER LOW AND EVEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. COOLER.
FARTHER WEST A COLD FRONT IS MOVING EAST AND NR A HALLOCK TO JUST EAST OF GRAND FORKS TO FARGO LINE. IN THE CLEARER AIRMASS TEMPS WILLL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S WHILE STAY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE CLOUDY AREA. THE SYSTEM FROM SASKATCHEWAN MOVING EAST WILL JOIN UP WITH THE MAIN 500 MB TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST THRU MN/WI AND MAKE ONE LARGER 500 MB LOW IN NW ONTARIO/BOUNDARY WATER REGION OF MINNESOTA.
537 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015 THE SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM 06Z SHOWED A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN EXTREME NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE PUMPING MOIST AIR TOWARD THE FRONT. A WARM NOSE DEVELOPS WHICH WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SLEET AND PERHAPS FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGEOVER OCCURS. A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A BAND OF ELEVATED FRONTOGENESIS FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
510 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015 12Z TAF issuance Strong, gusty winds have followed a cold front that moved through the region overnight. Forecast soundings mix to H7 or better this afternoon, where 30-40kt westerlies are forecast to round the base of the trough. Forecast soundings and H85 temp fields suggest staying towards the cooler end of guidance in the short term.
533 AM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL RAIN ACCOMPANIES THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF LATE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT. CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN DRY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING DEEP TROUGH FROM THE MID PLAINS. INCREASING MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL HELP PRODUCE LIGHT QPF THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE RIDGES. THE ONCE WORRISOME DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ISSUES AT THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND ACROSS THE RIDGE TOPS ON WEDNESDAY. SOME STRONG GUSTS MAY OCCUR OVER THE RIDGE TOPS AND VALLEYS BUT THE SCENARIO IS NOT PRIME TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
658 AM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING BOUTS OF RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. PRONOUNCED AND DEEP LL MERIDONAL FLW TRAJECTORIES HOLDING BTR MSTR/THETA-E WWD TWD THE MS VALLEY AS LL ANTICYCLONE STILL HOLDS FIRM ACRS THE ERN LAKES. DROPPED MOST POP MENTIONS TONIGHT IN REFLECTION OF RATHER COMPELLING SUBSIDENCE DVLPG DOWNSTREAM OF SHARP/SLOW SFC FNTL ZONE WORKING EWD ACRS IL AND WWD PLACEMENT OF LLJ/LL THETA-E RIDGE. AN UPPER LOW WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE WEDNESDAY.
THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE PUSHING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE DEEP AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW AND BROAD UPPER TROF DRIVING THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF NOT MOVING THROUGH UNTIL WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MARK ITS PASSAGE WITH A DELAY OF THE COOLER AIR UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
645 AM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 AVIATION UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS STATES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE MAP COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN DAKOTAS. UPPER LOW LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN KANSAS TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS UPPER TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WITH A RETURN OF AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE REGION. VIGOROUS UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED PVU CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST THIS EARLY MORNING. CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT LOCATIONS ACROSS THAT AREA RUNNING A BIT WARMER THAN EARLIER FORECAST TRENDS. ONCE ANY LINGERING CLOUDS FINALLY TRANSITION SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA TEMPERATURES SHOULD RAPIDLY COOL AND SETTLE BELOW FREEZING FOR THE FEW HOURS REMAINING BEFORE SUNRISE.
501 AM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN EXIT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
950 AM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY THEN SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
220 AM MST SUN JAN 31 2016 UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL TODAY AND THEN SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO NEVADA.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE AREA WITH SOME BELOW ZERO LOWS IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS BY MORNING. THE CLOSED CIRCULATION OFF THE SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL SWING THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH TOWARD THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH MOST LOCATIONS SHOWING MOSTLY SUNSHINE ACROSS THE NORTH WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES AND PARISHES. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS WITH WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES IN RESPONSE TO LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH THE LOW CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK.
323 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016 WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES DURING MIDWEEK. WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF MIDWRN TROFG WL MAINTAIN TEMPS ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS TODAY. RAIN CHCS WL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE OVR AREAS WEST OF PIT AS ASCENT FIELDS ON THE ERN FLANK OF THAT TROF IMPROVE WITH THE MSTR SUPPLY. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LIKELY AS THE LOW CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAGS A WEAK FRONT TOWARD THE UPR OHIO REGION TONIGHT.
MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME SUN AGAIN TODAY ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER. WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS ARE SUPPOSED TO MOVE INTO.
CURRENTLY SEEING ABOUT A 10-15 DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE RIDGES AND THE VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING. A LOW LEVEL JET OF ABOUT 30-35 KTS IS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH LOW PRESSURE BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE SOME LATE IN THE DAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY IN THE LOW 70S.
With the increasing cloud cover, max temps will be held down below full potential but still above seasonal levels in the lower 70s.
HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN/SNOW AND KEPT PRECIPITATION TYPE AS ALL RAIN/SPRINKLES AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO WARM TO AROUND 40F THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INTRODUCED FLURRIES TO THE NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO ACCOMPANY THE LOW CLOUDS AND WEAK FORCING FROM A 500HPA TROUGH THAT WILL TRACK INTO THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION.
1200 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW ONE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY BRINGING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA.
A VERY SHALLOW MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH GENTLE LIFT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON SPRINKLES UNDER THE WARM NOSE.
temperatures will be a bit cooler as cloud cover graces the Plains States.
The low level moisture that is present behind this front will move into southwest Kansas by late morning and then persist through late day as the winds gradually veer to the east southeast.
BUT MUCH OF THE LOWER H85/H7 SUPPORT WILL BEGIN PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
The associated cold front will push through the area today.
Strong southwesterly winds just above the surface will help to continue the potential for LLWS for all TAF sites into the morning hours ahead of a cold front approaching the region. Behind the cold front. with the exception being areas along and northwest of I-44 where the next cold front will pass prior to sunrise.
1029 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016 A weak cold front is expected to move across the area late tonight and early tomorrow morning.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS MORNING AND LIKELY THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE IT BECOMES STATIONARY THIS EVENING. THE RESULTING TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WARMER READINGS WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE SOME HIGHS NEAR 80 WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.
9u satellite imagery, the low clouds are already beginning to develop to the south and west of our area. As the aforementioned system and associated cold front approach and cross the region today and tonight, the combination of deeper moisture and better low to mid level forcing really come together over our CWA, especially over the southeast half.
LATER TONIGHT THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL ENHANCE SOME MID LEVEL FGEN OVER FAR SOUTHERN MN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING WHICH SHOULD MINIMIZE WIDESPREAD TRAVEL HAZARDS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEYOND 00Z MON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEYOND 00Z MON. HIGHS WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE LOW 70S WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SEEN.
344 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY.
The flow will back to the SW on Sun as a positively-tilted trof deepens and moves into CA. The cyclonic flow around the low will focus convergence over the spine of the Siernev where the heavier QPF is focused. and then strengthening Sun nite as the low further deepens. JHM Snow levels will be low around 2500 ft but only up too a couple of inches of snow is expected at the lower elevations while the higher elevations should get double that amount.
AT THAT TIME A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
/ISSUED 230 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NAM IS PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING IN THE RETURN MOISTURE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS.
WHILE THE SOUTHWEST WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME TO JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
WHILE A LONG WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST. THERE REALLY ISNT A STRONG COLD AIR PUSH BEHIND THE TROUGH. AND MODEL THERMAL PROFILES AGAIN LACK CONSENSUS /THE ECMWF 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE GFS AND NAM/. THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND MOVE EAST.
346 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016 WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES DURING MIDWEEK. WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF MIDWRN TROFG WL MAINTAIN TEMPS ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS TODAY. RAIN CHCS WL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE OVR AREAS WEST OF PIT AS ASCENT FIELDS ON THE ERN FLANK OF THAT TROF IMPROVE WITH THE MSTR SUPPLY. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LIKELY AS THE LOW CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAGS A WEAK FRONT TOWARD THE UPR OHIO REGION TONIGHT.
345 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016 A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS EARLY THIS MORNING. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A BRISK AND COOLER DAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE 700 MB TROUGH AXIS.
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER EASTERN CO WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL OK. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. SNOW SHOULD FIRST START TO OVERSPREAD THE HIGH PLAINS MON MORNING DUE TO WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES WITH THE SNOW SPREADING INTO CENTRAL KS MON AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A COUPLE COUNTIES WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR WED-THU WITH HIGHS ON WED NOT EXPECTED TO GET ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS. LAWSON SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST FROM CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
1131 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2016 A RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. PULLING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
1248 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TODAY.
211 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST TODAY.
SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS A WEAK RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
CURRENT IR SATELLITE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE SHALLOW STRATUS DECK/FOG ENTRENCHED OVER THE COASTAL BEND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID/LATE MORNING AS MIXING COMMENCES AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND THIS MAY GENERATE A FEW MORE SHOWERS.
319 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY.
A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY COULD BE WARMER IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES.