Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This will allow an also weakening upper trough to filter east into and forecast area through Sunday. As expected, some showers have developed across the forecast area this afternoon as a result of the incoming trough and increasing moisture and afternoon heating. With some low clouds expected to develop overnight, lows tonight will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Otherwise, skies on Sunday will be partly to mostly cloudy and high again warm into the low and middle 80s. This modest low level moisture will keep temps from getting too outlandishly warm as mins in the 60s and highs in the low to mid 80s will be common. The system's attendant cold front will move through the area Saturday with a widespread risk of rain and thunderstorms.
A cold front should make it into northern Oklahoma late in the TAF period resulting in northerly winds and post-frontal MVFR stratus.
Far southeast SD into northwest IA has seen mixed layer CAPE values climb to around 1000 J/kg this afternoon and with 30 to 40 knots of 0-6km bulk shear, so an isolated storm could produce hail to the size of quarters ahead of the cooler surge of air. Cooler and drier air will surge into the area overnight with lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Across the remainder of the region a canopy of high cirrus associated with a short wave trough over the eastern Gulf this evening will continue to move eastward overnight with skies becoming clear to partly cloudy later tonight as the short wave shifts east of the region through early Sunday.
1211 AM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 Showers and thunderstorms can be expected today with a crossing cold front. Low pressure traversing rapidly from the Northern Lakes across Southeastern Canada will shunt a cold front across the Upper Ohio later today.
1002 PM EDT Sat Apr 15 2017 A warm front will lift northeast of the region this evening.
1023 PM EDT Sat Apr 15 2017 High pressure will move offshore tonight.
Upper ridge near the coast will slide across SE Oregon late tonight and SW Idaho Sunday morning, followed by a southwest flow aloft Sunday afternoon. As a result, high temperatures on Sunday will be about 6-12 degrees warmer. A low pressure system will approach the coast Sunday afternoon. The leading edge of moisture associated with the low will bring a slight chance of afternoon showers to Harney County, otherwise expect dry weather and increasing clouds.
On this date in 1940, the low temperature in Key West dipped to 57 degrees.
A ridge of high pressure is centered along the mid- Atlantic coast this afternoon. In the mid to upper lvls a weak trough is over the region. 5" across the area which is not appreciably high, however adequate for isolated to scattered convection with no ridging aloft. The pattern is more reflective of a summer-time pattern, just slightly cooler, and will remain in place through the first half of the coming week. By mid to late week, weak ridging will build in and suppress convection. An onshore flow will remain in place through the period as high pressure remains over the Atlantic.
919 PM EDT Sat Apr 15 2017 A warm front will lift northeast of the region this evening.
The upper low over southern Canada will continue to move east but height contours will remain tight across Montana during the morning resulting in a fast flow aloft. Upper level ridging begins to build during the afternoon resulting in temperatures about 5 degrees warmer than today, closer to normal, with readings in the upper 50s to about 60 degrees.
945 PM EDT Sat Apr 15 2017 The High Risk of rip currents was allowed to expire this evening. Rip Currents: The High risk of rip currents was allowed to expire this evening for the northeast Florida beaches, and a Moderate risk of rip currents is expected through Sunday.
720 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017 Elongated trof of low pressure stretching from the Upper Midwest down into the Southern Plains this afternoon on the weather map. The cold front along that trof is making slow progress towards the region, and is expected to drive the weather through the overnight hours. Wind in particular may end up translating down with some of the rainfall from just off the surface as the low level jet increases later tonight. Temperatures to the north will be in the lower 70s.
Mostly clear skies and light winds will be present overnight as high pressure continues to move off the east coast. Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 82 58 77 / 0 20 20 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 79 59 76 / 0 20 30 60 Oak Ridge, TN 60 80 58 75 / 0 20 40 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 77 54 72 / 0 20 40 60.
906 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017 High pressure continue to ridge across SE Texas at mid evening.
Otherwise a ridge of high pressure is forecast to build in from the west bringing in warmer temperatures for Sunday.
Latest high res models continue to indicate best POPs Sunday afternoon across the far ern areas so have limited any elevated rain chances to just the lower Acadiana sites. A ridge of high pressure is centered along the mid- Atlantic coast this afternoon. In the mid to upper lvls a weak trough is over the region. 5" across the area which is not appreciably high, however adequate for isolated to scattered convection with no ridging aloft. The pattern is more reflective of a summer-time pattern, just slightly cooler, and will remain in place through the first half of the coming week. By mid to late week, weak ridging will build in and suppress convection. An onshore flow will remain in place through the period as high pressure remains over the Atlantic.
844 PM EDT Sat Apr 15 2017 A warm front may create a few showers into the late evening. Easter Sunday will be quite warm ahead of a cold front that will cross Pennsylvania Sunday night, bringing more widespread showers and thunderstorms.
631 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018 Large scale troughing across the eastern US, and amplified troughing upstream over the Rockies continues to maintain northern flow over the Northern Plains this morning. Today-Tonight: Rising heights aloft as ridging shifts eastward and increasing WAA associated with developing westerly BL flow will support near to above normal temperatures again today (warmest favored in eastern locations near pine forests of MN). A weak cold front is expected to pass through the region on Wednesday bringing a shift to northerly winds by the afternoon with a few clouds.
Models showing another short wave trough moving across the CWA Wednesday afternoon into night.
Wednesday we should be looking at a bit of a break in the rain at least for southern areas as the moisture plume shifts east and the low level flow shifts to the west.
617 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018 Quiet conditions are expected through the next several days as troughing over the Great Lakes gradually transitions eastward, keeping any disturbances east of the Plains through the end of the work week.
624 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018 High pressure will continue to settle over Arkansas. Today Through Wednesday A high amplitude upper ridge will be over the Rockies today and only move into the Plains by Wednesday. This high will be over Arkansas Wednesday morning. The cooler temperatures will bring patchy frost to areas north of Little Rock this morning and over most of the area Wednesday morning.
631 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018 High pressure over the Northern Plains will be the main influence over the region and will move southeast through Tuesday evening. A broad trough over the eastern one third of the country will continue to very slowly move to the east through Tuesday evening.
1030 AM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018 Intensifying low pressure off the Carolina coast will move northeastward in to the Canadian Maritimes through tonight. High pressure will build southward into the central U.
It looks like as the batch of rain over Pt Conception moving east approach SoCal the low clouds will decrease but that probably won't occur until early afternoon.
The weather systems will also produce breezy and cooler conditions across the region, with temperatures dropping below seasonal normals. Snow levels will remain high during this period, near 8k ft or more, and significant amounts of snow will accumulate in the high Sierra. Rainfall in the lower elevations of the Sierra and foothills will need to be watched for local flooding concerns, especially near recent burn scars. Snow levels lower to 4500 to 5000 ft by Wednesday as the upper trough responsible for the precip pushes into the west coast and cooler air moves into our area. During this time, models bring another impulse with additional precip into our area, accumulating more snow in the Sierra, and impacting at least the higher elevations in the Kern County mountains by Wednesday evening.
08z surface analysis had high pressure over the eastern Dakotas into the central plains. Wednesday, upper and thermal ridge peak over the CWA with spring- like temperatures.
Sunny conditions with GOES-R water vapor showing driest air in the lowest levels with perhaps some upper level moisture moving in later today and tonight. Highs today cooler than normal in the lower to mid 60s. then ahead of next trof/frontal passage tonight another increase to NW 15-20 knots is expected again and will be very close to SCA flags.
618 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018 Dry and warmer is the main weather story the next few days. As the high slides off to the east later tonight and Wednesday, a return to south then southwest low level flow will signal a significant warmup for the middle of the week. Lots of sunshine this afternoon should help to offset limited mixing regime under surface ridging, but highs will remain below normal for the middle part of March. Thus highs approaching 20 degrees warmer than this afternoon are not out of the question. Meanwhile an upper low currently in the Eastern Pacific will swing a trough into the Pacific Northwest by Wednesday afternoon.
Expect at least a 25 degree diurnal swing with aftn highs in the lower to middle 60s with mostly sunny skies nad fairly lgt winds. Thin cirrus across southern portions of area and a very weak cold front movg across nrn portions of the area may be enough to allow temps to warm further than this swing mentioned. /issued 424 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018/ Latest surface analysis shows a large ridge of high pressure extending from the Northern Plains to the Louisiana Gulf Coast. Overnight lows will likely be near or below freezing across much of Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas.
A cold front will enter eastern Oregon late this afternoon and move through southwest Idaho overnight, clearing the western Magic Valley by 9 am MDT Wed. Warm today ahead of Pacific cold front, and significantly cooler Wednesday. Pacific cold front is expected to pass through eastern Oregon late tonight, southwest Idaho 4-8 AM MDT Wednesday, and south- central Idaho mid-morning Wednesday.
/issued 249 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018/ High pressure will continue to build into the Mid-South over the next 24 hours and will settle over the area on Wednesday. The high will quickly shift southeast by Wednesday Night allowing winds to turn around to the south.
Low level winds have shifted to the northeast as high pressure has also shifted slightly eastward. /issued 311 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018/ High pressure extended from the Dakotas to the Sabine River Basin this morning as another nor'easter is cranking up off the Atlantic Coast. The nor'easter will not be in any hurry to move away from New England, leaving the only direction for the Dakotas high pressure to move is south or south-southeast.
A north wind gusting 20-25 knots later today is expected to generate waves of 3 to 6 feet towards the open water with the highest waves forecast offshore from Wind Point. A lobe of vorticity associated with an upper low over Lake Huron will rotate through the area early this morning.
There are a few cumulus popping up along the Front Range late this morning but wouldn't expected more than scattered to broken cloudiness and mostly virga across the higher terrain this afternoon. Otherwise, light to moderate northwest flow aloft will remain in place until passage of a sharp upper-level ridge on Wednesday. Temperatures next 24 hours are expected to run near to slightly above average with highs on the plains in the low to mid 50s, and from the mid 30s to near 50 degrees across the high country.
Overpeck Generally light N to NE winds and mostly clear skies are expected today as high pressure slides into the region. High pressure will slide off to the east, allowing onshore flow to return late Wednesday.
619 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018 With an area of high pressure over the region, along with clear skies and light winds, patchy to areas of fog seems likely. High temperatures today will be cooler than yesterday. However, south central SD should be warmer due to southerly winds this afternoon, along with limited snow cover.
High pressure over OK/NCTX maintaining the dry north to northeasterly flow across SETX today.
Below normal temperatures and showery conditions will persist into this weekend as an upper level trough parks over Northwest California. A cold front is currently situated along the Northwest California coast as of 4 am. Showery conditions will develop today behind the frontal passage as cold air settles over the region within a deep upper level trough. Light snowfall accumulations are expected with only minor accumulations over the higher highway mountain passes. Winds this morning will rapidly decrease over the next hour or so as the cold front moves inland. Showery conditions and below normal temperatures will persist for the next several days as an upper trough parks over the Pacific Northwest and Northwest California.
Freezing fog across Hi-Line counties will clear through late morning. Periods of rain and snow return for the second half of the week, along with cooler temperatures. A high-amplitude ridge positioned directly over our forecast area is providing clear and calm weather conditions. Freezing fog is of primary interest this morning, having spread across North-central MT from Cut Bank to Great Falls to Havre. Given the potential for variable driving conditions with light icing and rapid changes in visibility, a freezing fog advisory was expanded to cover most of this area through noon. Temperatures continue to trend warmer today and Wednesday as the upper level ridge drifts into eastern Montana.
Highs will be from the middle 50s north to the lower 60s south. Today should be less windy and a little warmer than yesterday, with dry weather and mostly sunny skies. As winds calm down again overnight, temperatures are expected to drop near or a few degrees below freezing across the Gold Triangle and surrounding areas through northeast and north-central MS. Therefore the Freeze Watch has been upgraded to a Freeze Warnings for several counties where confidence is highest that temperatures will drop below freezing for a few hours. Areas from Meridian to Greenwood are a little less certain, but temperatures in those areas could still dip to freezing with frost expected. If wind speeds stay up a little bit overnight, temperatures will have a difficult time dropping below freezing.
High pressure aloft will move east across Utah today. The high amplitude upper ridge currently over Utah will continue east ahead of the advancing cold core upper trough still located over the eastern Pacific. This upper trough will finally reach the west coast by early Wednesday, then expand east across most of the western CONUS during the latter half of the week. Downstream from the upper trough and in the wake of the exiting upper ridge strong southerly winds aloft will develop across mainly western/northern Utah late tonight/Wednesday. The leading surface cold front will reach eastern Nevada early Wednesday.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 28 47 32 / 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 26 42 30 / 10 20 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 46 25 42 29 / 10 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 40 22 37 26 / 20 40 10 10 TN.
In the low levels of the atmosphere, a large area of high pressure over the north central United States will build southeastward down the Florida peninsula this afternoon. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, a trough of low pressure will be located over Florida today. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a trough of low pressure will move eastward through the eastern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon.
942 AM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018 An upper level low crossing the Great Lakes today will aid in the development of scattered snow showers on a brisk northwest flow.
1030 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018 Reinforcing high pressure continues to slide south southeast into the southern plains today.
Updates to snow totals have been made for the higher elevation. The upper-level low situated over the Great Lakes will sink south through the day, dropping a trough axis through Ohio. Although snow showers will be common for most, chose to focus the highest PoPs along the southern periphery of this axis along and south of I-70. Snow showers will continue into Wednesday as the upper low moves eastward and colder air behind the exiting low spreads across the area.
1033 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018 Continued cool today but afternoon highs forecast to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday in many locations. Elevated fire weather develops in the west tomorrow afternoon with increasing south winds and warmer temperatures.
An upper trough continues to impact California this afternoon. The high res ARW. Upper level high pressure over the Eastern Pacific will begin to build slowly east over California.
/ISSUED 338 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017/ Early this morning an upper trough extended from the Northern Plains into CA. This has helped weaken the upper ridge over Mexico with SE Texas now on the western edge of the upper high pressure ridge centered around the FL/GA border. An upper low located over was over the southern Gulf of Mexico. Today and Thursday the upper low will drift westward as the ridge builds westward as well. Even as the upper low moves west over the lower Texas coast, the building ridge aloft will keep rain chances low over SE Texas on Thursday.
Expect the cold front to help provide some coherent forcing for convection this evening and tonight as it slides eastward across Iowa.
Some of the high resolution model guidance suggests that isolated thunderstorms may develop this evening to the west and northwest of the metroplex and rapidly diminish after sunset. The cold front moving into Oklahoma tonight should be sufficient to focus showers and thunderstorms to the north of the Red River.
The upper air analysis this morning showed the subtropical ridge over the Gulf pushing into the southern plains. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the Gulf and winds were from the southeast keeping moist air in place. Strong subsidence under the upper ridge will keep the weather dry. The highest values will only be in isolated spots for a hour or two during the afternoon.
303 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Main concern this afternoon involves new convective development as long awaited surface cold front begins moving through the area. Deep-layer shear will continue to increase this afternoon as midlevel speed max associated with main trough axis across the Central Plains also moves east with time. Considering this, along with the ample amounts of buoyancy that appear present, initial development in the form of discrete cells to the west of the KC Metro will support both a large hail and strong wind threat, with activity migrating more towards a linear configuration in response to deep layer shear values remaining largely parallel to the incoming cold frontal boundary.
1259 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Morning upper air shows digging trof/low center over southwest NE. Developing storm system over western Kansas early this morning will be lifting northeast and strengthening today, with the synoptic models centering the low over southeast Minnesota by late tonight. A line of thunderstorms associated with the cold front itself should begin to take shape by mid afternoon from western Iowa into Kansas. The low will continue to strengthen as it lifts northeast across Wisconsin on Thursday, with the front itself crossing the forecast area Thursday afternoon.
Mid-upper anticyclone is forecast to be over the Florida panhandle while a TUTT cell pushes westward across Cuba. High moisture is forecast in the vicinity of a weakness in the ridge across the central peninsula. Steering flow will be weak, so expect the highest POPs (60 percent) to be over the north interior with 30-40% across the far south.
Ceilings will gradually decrease through the overnight as an upper level trough approaches Arkansas, with widespread MVFR and IFR conditions possible by morning. Early morning temperatures were in the low to mid 70s, while dew point temperatures were just a few degrees less. Aloft, the upper ridge was off to the east of AR, while southwest flow was now into AR, especially western AR. This flow will allow warmer temperatures, and much of any convection mainly over western to northern parts of AR. Thursday night, a lower chance of convection is forecast, with the highest in the north, the lowest in the south.
331 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Late this aftn, the synoptic pattern was characterized by an UL ridge across southeast CONUS that is aiding in drifting an inverted UL trough axis northwest from southeast LA to near central, whilst concurrently a more potent UL trough was noted moving east-northeast across the Central Plains. However, attention will turn to the cold frontal passage extending from the Plains UL trough that will move across southeast OK overnight. The UL trough will quickly translate to across the Great Lakes Region tomorrow night, and loss of daytime heating will promote diminishing precip chances.
320 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Widespread rain showers with a few embedded thunderstorms continue to roll over the area this afternoon as mid to upper trough and associated surface boundary moves northeast into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Early this afternoon, the IR satellite imagery showed cooler cloud tops suggesting a weakening/decaying system as it moves northward, with drier and more stable air starting to surge behind it. Highs will be in the 70s along and east of I-29, and in the lower 80s west of I-29.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop perhaps as early as late afternoon ahead of a cold front that will pass through the region overnight tonight.
124 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 Showers and thunderstorms are expected along the higher terrain this afternoon and could drift over an airport.
145 PM PDT Wed Aug 16 2017 An upper-level trough along the West Coast will maintain a deep marine layer and below average temperatures Thursday.
1200 PM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017 18Z TAF CYCLE Westerly flow aloft will persist over New Mexico with an upstream trough over the far western states.
1133 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017 The cold front has progressed eastward to the Great Plains, leaving cool and dry northwesterly flow in its wake. This cooler airmass will keep temperatures a few degrees below normal today and tomorrow. Another trough drops NW to SE into the region tonight, but not anticipating any moisture with this trough. Therefore, this passing trough will only increase winds slightly and reinforce the cooler air aloft. On Thursday, the longwave trough pattern finally moves off to the east and high pressure begins to amplify across the southwestern US.
Tomorrow will be a more active day for thunderstorms as de-amplifying upper trof moves across the area in the afternoon. Return southerly flow will advect upper 50 dew points back northward into the far southeast plains while passing trof helps mix out low level moisture again and sharpens up a dry line across the far southeast plains. The low level shear is not all that impressive, so the tornado threat is small, but still possible.
We continue to see mid level ridging over the area, similar to what we saw yesterday, so in general, will continue with a mostly persistence forecast when it comes to temperatures this afternoon into tomorrow. Already seeing some scattered thunderstorms out there, with the better chances expected to be in the higher terrain of the area.