Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A strong upper level ridge, which is responsible for the heat wave across the southwest United States, will begin to nudge north and east today. This will result in high temperatures in the upper 70's to mid 80's across the area with even warmer temperatures on Tuesday. Most places will not see any activity due to the strength of the upper level ridge and associated subsidence aloft.
348 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 (Today and Tonight) Weak cold front early this morning extends from just south of Mertzon to near Christoval, and then east-northeast into northern Brown County. To the north of the front, temperatures will be cooler today, especially across the area along/north of Interstate 20 where cloud cover will be slow to break up. Temperatures will be a little cooler across the southern part of our area south of the front, where the low-level thermal ridge will be weakened. Lows tonight are expected to be mostly in the lower 70s.
Slightly cooler air will follow the boundary but the big change will be in moisture levels. Dewpoints preceding the front remain in the lower to mid 70s while behind it, dew points have already dropped into the upper 50s over the north with that drier air overspreading the forecast area with time.
635 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 An upper level trough will shift east across the Great Lakes, pushing a cold front through Pennsylvania today.
A high pressure ridge will develop over the region today resulting in warmer temperatures well into the 80s for highs. These warmer temperatures and some instability may be enough to trigger a thunderstorm or two across central Idaho. Subtle changes in the weather are expected Tuesday as the high pressure ridge begins to weaken, or flatten out.
350 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 A cold front will cross the region today and tonight. After the front passes the region, cooler and unsettled weather will dominate the region through mid-week. A broad upper level trough will rotate through northern NY during the short term period.
315 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Surface cold front currently is bisecting the area. For today, surface cold front will continue to move on off to the east. Highs today will range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s in most locations. After morning patchy fog mixes out, sunny skies are expected with highs warming into the lower 80s.
Have kept the low PoPs and expanded them further to the south and into mid morning, moving them south with time.
An upper ridge will give dry and warmer weather on Monday. A weak cold front will bring a threat of showers to the area Monday night and Tuesday. Warmer weather is likely late in the week. An upper level ridge building through Monday will give dry and warmer conditions. Temps Monday should be about ten degrees warmer than today on average, particularly across the interior. A weak cold front will near the area Monday night and should give the area a chance of showers Tuesday morning. Onshore flow will increase and temps will be cooler on Tuesday.
339 AM MST Mon Jun 19 2017 Strong high pressure will continue to build across the Southwestern early this week. Strong ridge of high pressure ridge affecting much of the western CONUS.
Surface wise, an elongated, north-south oriented trough is aligned on the Yucatan peninsula with a broad western Atlantic ridge extending into the Florida peninsula. A trough of low pressure covering the Yucatan peninsula and the adjacent northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico is expected to move generally northwestward and slowly organize over the next couple of days.
The weak front in question is currently moving through the Lower Mississippi River Valley. In addition, a weak trough is situated across portions of SE Ga. Currently, most of the the highest forecasted QPF is along or just south of the Interstate 20 corridor.
158 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 A cold front across north central Ohio will move to the Appalachians by daybreak. An upper level trough will persist across the area into the middle of the week.
410 AM MDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Upper level analysis has broad trof to the east with broad ridge across the western CONUS. At the surface, cool high pressure remains across the northern Rockies and northern Plains. Western upper ridge will slowly shift over the area today and Tuesday, resulting in warm and dry weather.
153 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 An upper level trough will shift east across the Great Lakes, pushing a cold front through Pennsylvania on Monday.
A weak cold front is situated roughly along the I-40 corridor. Scattered showers continue along and in advance of the front with temps generally in the lower 70s. The weak cold front will continue SE across the area. Dewpoints will drop into the low 60s in the Memphis area this afternoon.
259 AM MDT Mon Jun 19 2017 High pressure will drift east across the region today and tonight for dry conditions with relatively light winds and seasonably warm temperatures. Upper level ridge which has been anchored over the SW US briefly amplifies with axis shifting east across the Northern Rockies and MT tonight. Upper level ridge flattens/breaks down late Tuesday in response to an upper trough moving onto the BC coast with a 100+kt upper level jet nosing inland along the US/Canadian border Tuesday and Tuesday night.
This is because the upper level ridge across the Swrn U.
During peak heating on Tuesday, a very large portion of the western CONUS will be under the influence of a strong upper-level high pressure ridge.
323 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Northwest flow prevailing over the region this morning as a closed low spins south of Hudson Bay and upper ridging builds across the American West. As this occurs, high pressure building into the upper Midwest will send a weak frontal boundary south towards our area, with latest model runs suggesting possible precip development by Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday will definitely be warmer with upper 80s returning to much of the area.
628 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 A cold front will cross the region today and tonight. After the front passes the region, cooler and unsettled weather will dominate the region through mid-week. Upper trough will still be around with some moisture Tuesday morning, then it will flatten later Tuesday as dry slot also edges north into the area.
Ridge will remain in place providing well above normal temperatures this week with record breaking heat possible today and Tuesday. Ridge over Arizona will continue to provide heat and will begin to pivot moisture into central Nevada. In addition to thunderstorms, near-record high temperatures are possible across the CWA today and Tuesday with lower 100s being common across the lowest valleys across southern Humboldt and northern Nye counties.
Isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms with gusty winds could develop each afternoon through Tuesday over the higher terrain, mainly from Flagstaff eastward.
The scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be swept out through the day as a cold front crosses the Mid State. This will allow temps to warm to the low to mid 80s west of the Plateau. If there is enough sun, temps could go even warmer than our forecast for western sections. Tuesday will be a nice, sunny day with high pressure over the area.
High pressure aloft will prevail for dry and warmer weather today. A weak cold front will bring a threat of rain to the region tonight and Tuesday.
153 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Aviation High pressure at the surface is building into the Great Lakes and a few days of cooler and drier air is on the way. However, an upper trough will now move over the state and that may result in a few showers and/or storms during the afternoons Monday and Tuesday. However, much cooler air aloft will move over Michigan early this week. Potential exists for ocnl rounds/clusters of storms to impact the area, particularly at night when the low level jet will be active.
310 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Deep northwesterly flow across the Upper Midwest with upper troughing over the Great Lakes will continue early this week bringing seasonably cool high temps in the 60s and 70s through Tuesday with lows in the 50s. As this system passes to the east on Tuesday, weak ridging will build into the region with drier weather expected for later Tuesday. Lows Tuesday night may drop into 40s under the ridge axis, especially across central Wisconsin.
243 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 A cold front brings showers and storms today. High pressure crosses Tuesday, but then we get back into warm, unsettled weather. This boundary will very slowly cross the area this morning, essentially waiting for a surface wave to cross along with the arrival of the trof axis, before the front gets shoved to the east. Additional QPF of 1 to 2 inches is expected over the area, with the highest amounts probably tied to convection. As the upper trof axis approaches along with steepening low level lapse rates, models are showing some afternoon showers primarily across southeast Ohio and northern half of WV.
It appears that any forcing will be weak and low level moisture will be limited so the high resolution models may be overdone in generating convection, but still feel that isolated light showers will be possible this afternoon. High temperatures today will be a couple of degrees warmer than the previous day, and close to seasonal normals. Another batch of mid level clouds will drop southeastward into our area late tonight with low temperatures a couple of degrees warmer than this morning and slightly below normal.
No concerns for any precipitation as high pressure remains firmly in control and will remain so over the next several days. Having said that, as the center of high pressure moves more directly over the four corners region, temperatures look to increase even more tomorrow. The center of high pressure remains overhead Tuesday but gets slowly forced southward as passing waves move across the northern Rockies. The first wave brushes our CWA Tuesday afternoon and evening but minimal moisture and forcing will keep any showers and convection over the higher terrain and even that will be very isolated.
The forecast precipitation chances were left as is, as a cold front will be moving across the area today, thereby leaving open the possibility of new convection developing over the next several hours. Based on the overall trends, decided to adjust the forecast accordingly, with a faster west to east progression of ongoing convection and any new showers and storms that form later this morning as a cold front pushes across the area. Temperatures will likely max out today at slightly cooler than normal values in the upper 70s due to widespread cloud cover and precipitation. A warming trend is on tap for Tuesday, with highs forecast to max out in the lower 80s beneath mostly clear skies.
Expect more isolated showers today as the upper trough remains overhead. If any storms become strong, despite minimal effective shear, low freezing level around 8kft could allow for hail to reach severe limits near 1 inch in diameter, especially if slightly higher instability is realized. Nam shows a 500 mb ridge over the western U. 12z Tue with a trough over the ern half of the U. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a flattened and broad 500 mb ridge over the southern half of the U. with a broad trough over Canada and the northern half of the U. Troughing remains over the upper Great Lakes into Mon with temperatures remaining below normal along with unsettled weather through most of this forecast period.
Northwest flow aloft is established over the region in the wake of yesterday's trough.
Have low rain chances near the coast beginning on Tuesday, then gradually raise the chances (lowest northwest and highest southeast) for the remainder of the week as we wait to see how everything unfolds with the broad area of low pressure near the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The National Hurricane Center's most recent Tropical Weather Outlook continues to say that gradual development of this system is expected when it moves over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico later today and Tuesday where a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form (80% chance of formation through 48 hours and a 90% chance through 5 days).
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGH MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. A cold front over South Florida will continue to move southeast through the late afternoon hours and into the Florida Keys and the Florida Straits tonight, as high pressure over northern Central United States moves southeast and into the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday.
1203 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2018 Quick update to include a noon to 5 pm LWA for extreme nw portions of the area, between Broken Bow OK and Tyler TX, where winds may briefly reach criteria, associated with a cold front movg across the area. Expecting less than 5KT or even calm overnight with a light frost and another stellar day for Tuesday as high pressure slides E, shifting sfc and low levels to E and then SE with time.
Expect most of the low ceilings/fog to clear to VFR in the mid to late morning. A cold front will move into the waters this afternoon, producing steep wind driven seas. Models have trended faster with the cold front passage through the coast this evening.
Winds will generally be light except for gusts up to around 30 mph at times in the high country.
We should be well within the warm sector by 12Z Tuesday as a warm front passes to the northeast of the CWA overnight, while a surface in the lee side of the Rocky Mountains develops.
That has given way to another round of quiet weather today along with warmer than normal temperatures. Meanwhile, the synoptic pattern remains pretty much unchanged with a strong upper ridge holding firm over California. However, a couple factors may result in a slightly cooler temperatures compared to yesterday's balmy readings. The system approaching the Pacific Northwest is forecast to move inland well to our north tonight and weaken the ridge over California slightly by Tuesday.
1118 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2018 H5 analysis this morning had a trough of low pressure extending from the upper Mississippi valley south into the Ozarks. High pressure was present over California with a ridge extending north into British Columbia. This was in the vicinity of an elevated warm front which extended across the western third of the forecast area. The before mentioned elevated warm front, will track slowly east today across the western 2/3rds of the forecast area. The warm front will track east, approaching the Missouri river by 12z Tuesday. Ridging aloft will persist along the west coast the next several days, with northwest flow aloft across our region on the eastern periphery of the ridge.
302 PM EST Mon Jan 29 2018 Light snow will be possible across portions of northern New York late tonight through Tuesday as weak low pressure moves to the south.
The broad, upper-level western states high pressure ridge today through tonight will be cut down by a sharp cold front and low pressure trough from the Canadian west coast. Some convincing signs are 50-65 kt winds at 850 mb coincident with the passage of a low pressure trough.
Light northerly winds will turn south-southeast behind the high this afternoon. Southerly winds will continue to increase on Tuesday, becoming breezy or windy at times late morning and afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Overall, a warmer than normal day, with highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s for most areas, but nearing 50 in south central SD. Models keep the bulk of the forcing associated with the aforementioned trough near the Canadian border, to the north of the forecast area. However the cold front moves into the northern half of the forecast area Tuesday evening and stalls/washes it out near I- 90. Moisture looks very limited with this front, but cannot rule out a low end chance for some light snow, possibly mixed with rain on the onset, mainly in the highway 14 corridor.
Drier surge of northerly flow noted on GOES16 imagery just passing through Kingsville should clear HBV and BKS in the next hour, and through the lower valley between 8 and 9 AM. The drier air accompanying the reinforcing high pressure will bring a clear and sunny day today. Minimal cooling is accompanying this surge, so highs today will still reach the low to mid 70s. Clear skies and light north winds tonight will allow temperatures to fall into the lower 40s, with some upper 30s possible in the northern ranchlands will away from the river. Most of the area will see another mild and clear day tomorrow as the high remains in the vicinity. Highs will be a couple degrees lower, especially along the coast where highs will only reach the lower 60s.
1248 PM EST Mon Jan 29 2018 VFR conditions this afternoon and tonight with gusty winds from the North to Northwest as a cold front moves through by evening.
/issued 400 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2018/ (Today and Tonight) A weak cold front will push slowly south, across West Central Texas, today and bring winds from the north, along with slightly cooler temperatures. This front will not have the thermal energy we've seen with previous fronts; however, it will bring some cooler air into West Central Texas, from the north.
The high will weaken around midweek for cooler temperatures, but temperatures still well above normal in weak offshore flow into the weekend. The low at the nearby Camarillo airport was only 73 last night and it has already passed 80. The Central Coast has fairly calm winds this morning and lows there will be much cooler but the offshore flow will allow for a very nice warm up and max temps will soar into the mid 80s there as well. Pretty dull weather for Tue and Wed the ridge will weaken through the period.
Glass The low level WAA regime will improve Tuesday night as southerly surface winds increase.
301 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2018 High pressure was settling in underneath the inflection of an upper level trough to the east, and upper ridging to the west. The high pressure was associated with a Canadian airmass that capped afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 30s.
Highs today will reach into the lower 40s in central Kansas, with warmer upper 50s in extreme southwestern Kansas. The large scale pattern over the next 10 days will feature west- northwesterly mid to high level flow from the eastern Pacific across the central and eastern United States, with a mean trough over the Great Lakes and ridge near the west coast.
Low stratus clouds blanket much of the area early this morning, with a pocket of clearing along and north of the Highway 20 corridor in Iowa. Seasonably cold and relatively benign weather is expected next 24 hours as Canadian high pressure builds southward into the middle and upper Mississippi River Valley Region. Highs this afternoon will range from the mid 20s NW of a line from Cedar Rapids to Freeport to the lower 30s in the Burlington, Keokuk, and Macomb areas. Tonight, the ridge of high pressure will be directly overhead, with clear, calm, and cold conditions expected overnight.
1132 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2018 Cold front continues to work its way through the state with breezy North to Northwest winds in its wake. High pressure will build in tonight. 29/12Z TAF CYCLE Cold front over NW AR this mrng wl cont to work SWD and is expected to shift S of the area this aftn. Today Through Tuesday Night Cold front was located acrs NW AR early this mrng. Elsewhere, highs wl be in the 40s and 50s, about 5 to 10 degree cooler than on Sun. The high wl shift E of AR on Tue, with S/SE wind flow returning.
320 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2018 An area of high pressure over the eastern Dakotas will push eastward tonight, allowing for warm air advection to develop over the region. While model soundings are showing the potential for low clouds with the WAA tonight, the low level moisture is not deep enough to warrant the mention of freezing drizzle or flurries. With a strong area of low pressure crossing the southern Canadian Prairies on Tuesday, our region will see a surge in warm temperatures. High temperatures should reach the mid 30s, in western Minnesota, to the lower 50s, along and west of the Missouri River.
210 PM EST Mon Jan 29 2018 Low pressure continues to churn off the Carolina coast while high pressure builds into the local area. Will also need to monitor the wind chills but as of now only very isolated pockets of the highest elevations to get to the 5 degree threshold for issuance.
Low pressure continues to slowly strengthen off the Carolina coast this afternoon, with a cold front stretching across central Florida into the east/southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Pacific cold front currently along the northwest coast will lose its moisture tap as it continues east, so southern areas will get little or no pcpn as the front moves through overnight and Tuesday morning.
107 PM EST Mon Jan 29 2018 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the upper Great Lakes and central U. System snow Tue night into Wed then very cold with lake effect Upper level trough bringing current light lake effect slides to east coast on Tuesday.
Clouds will hamper insolation tomorrow, but dynamic forcing may be enough to mix very warm air down ahead of the trough, supporting temps potentially higher than current forecast numbers.
Precipitation chances will increase during the morning hours as a warm front moves westward across the region.
Water vapor satellite imagery/pwat analyses show an atmospheric river heading toward the Olympic Peninsula and a mid-tropospheric ridge over the West Coast. Cirrus are spilling over the West Coast ridge and into the western High Plains. The ridge sharpens and translates eastward into the Central Plains through tonight. The extent of clouds could limit highs, however thermal ridge is in place with h85 temperatures warming to +8 to +12deg C. As the area of h5 low pressure advances from Saskatchewan into Manitoba, the leading surface cold front pushes through the forecast area Tuesday night.
Across western zones, SW winds will be lighter, in proximity of the lee trough.
128 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2018 A large upper level trough centered across the Ohio Valley will continue to translate toward the east coast by Tuesday.
Ridge of high pressure extends from western Minnesota into central Oklahoma at 20Z providing light winds and mainly clear skies this afternoon. As the ridge axis shifts east tonight and Tuesday winds will become southerly and increase through the morning. Warmer air will return to the region on Tuesday in advance of low pressure tracking east across south central Canada. The gusty winds and warmer temperatures will increase the fire danger potential in parts of southeast Nebraska on Tuesday.
Early this morning the region was under northwesterly flow aloft as the mid-level trough was stretched across the eastern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure was surging southward into the Central Plains with the northerly winds supporting the advection of cold Canadian air into the region. As a result, this approaching low pressure will cause winds overnight to shift around to the south. This shift to southerly winds will keep overnight temperatures a bit warmer than this morning with lows in the upper teens to low 20s.
Speaking of wind, that will be the next feature of concern in the forecast as an overnight cold front forces strong winds at mountain top down to near the surface during the very early pre- dawn hours.
Northerly winds and seas will continue to gradually increase through Tue morning as strong high pressure continues to build from the north. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the lower end of Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound east of Pascagoula tonight through Tue morning. Rain has moved well east of the area as a cold front has moved through the entire area this morning. Highs will warm into the low to mid 60s. A reinforcing cold front moves through this evening bringing a colder and drier airmass into the area. Lows tonight fall into the low 30s inland to mid 30s along the coast.