Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE LOW 20S FOR RH VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT. THE LOW 30S ARE NOT FAR AWAY AND WINDS ARE ALREADY DIMINISHING. A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. EASTERLY WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG THE LAKE MUCH COOLER THAN AREAS INLAND.
AN AMPLIFIED LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND OVERSPREADING WIND MAXIMUM ALOFT COUPLED WITH UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND 30 DAY PRECIPITATION DEFICITS OF ONLY 10-25 PERCENT OF NORMAL ATOP HEAVY FUEL LOADINGS.
847 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NEAR OR INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND BECOME DIFFUSE.
954 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016 COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATER DURING THE NIGHT. THEN WORK BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SE OK/NE TX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD THIS EVENING. MAKING IT THROUGH KTYR/KGGG/KTXK AND MAYBE KELD BEFORE STALLING TONIGHT AND LIFTING BACK NWD AS A WARM FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S BEHIND THE FRONT IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO THE LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR WILL EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE MID 60S WHILE LOCATIONS ELSEWHERE CAN EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS WAS LOCATED FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST, NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, ALONG A COLD FRONT. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY 06Z, AND IN THE NASHVILLE AREA BY 09Z, AND PUSH INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTER AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS TO MORE CLOSELY REFLECT LATEST TRENDS AND FORECAST MOVEMENT OF COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. COLD FRONT IS SITUATED JUST WEST OF THE OHIO & MISSISSIPPI RIVERS WITH FROPA EXPECTED OVERNIGHT & EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
847 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY WORK INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY.
646 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016 AVIATION LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
507 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016 COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SE THROUGH THE STATE. BUT MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE INCREASING AGAIN AS THE COLD FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MON EVENING. TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE COLD FRONT HAS REACHED A LINE FROM HARRISON. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE STATE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS WEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS A SHARPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE.
MODELS ARE GENERATING SOME SCATTERED QPF OVER US AGAIN TOMORROW AS BROAD SCALE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVER US AND NORTHERN STREAM PHASES A BIT WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.
DEW POINTS RUNNING NEARLY 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE WATER TEMPERATURE AS THE LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH OUT OF THE LOWER GULF CONTINUES. /ISSUED 305 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016/ WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROF FROM CENTRAL TX THRU THE ARKLATEX. EXCEPT MID 60S ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE COOLER WATERS ALONG AND OFFSHORE THE COAST. LOOKS LIKE THE PREVAILING DEEP LAYER LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U. FN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ARKLATEX WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH MONDAY.
620 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO QUEBEC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. GRADUALLY PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WAS JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST. COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH MISSOURI WILL PASS THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA.
BUT OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD WEATHER. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO ALL AREAS MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. BY MONDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP TO FREEZING OR A BIT BELOW ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN INTERIOR VALLEYS WHERE SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR. INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS.
545 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016 RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOUR WITH A VERY WEAK TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. AND I EXPECT IT TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND BRING SOME VERY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS.
628 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MONDAY.
702 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NEAR OR INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND BECOME DIFFUSE.
556 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016 HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE SEASONALLY WEAK COLD FROPA EARLIER TODAY.
POPS AND WIND SPEEDS AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE GENERATING SOME SCATTERED QPF OVER US AGAIN TOMORROW AS BROAD SCALE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVER US AND NORTHERN STREAM PHASES A BIT WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 53 66 53 68 / 30 50 30 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 52 63 47 66 / 20 70 30 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 52 62 48 66 / 30 70 30 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 44 61 44 63 / 20 80 30 20.
902 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016 The cold front is making good progress across the region, especially through the Evansville Tri State.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK INTO MON WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE WATERS.
surface winds become breezy out of the southeast with scattered mid/high clouds ahead of the next approaching low pressure system. Temperatures currently running some 10-15 degrees cooler behind the front.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SE OK/NE TX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD THIS EVENING. MAKING IT THROUGH KTYR/KGGG/KTXK AND MAYBE KELD BEFORE STALLING TONIGHT AND LIFTING BACK NWD AS A WARM FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S BEHIND THE FRONT IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO THE LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR WILL EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE MID 60S WHILE LOCATIONS ELSEWHERE CAN EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS PRE-FRONTAL SHRA DEVELOPING IN WRN KY AND TN, AND A LINE OF -SHRA ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN SRN IL AND SERN MO. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THE LOW CIGS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH 21Z.
654 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY WORK INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY.
Cold front has pushed east of the forecast area with winds briefly subsiding across the area overnight.
508 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY WORK INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY.
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL AID IN AN INCREASE OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO KDHT AND KGUY MONDAY MORNING. /ISSUED 222 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016/ THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE PANHANDLES LAST NIGHT IS WELL SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES AND THEN IT STRETCHES BACK UP NORTHWEST FROM PORTALES TO RATON. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT.
949 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER IN THE WEEK. TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION APPEAR LACKING ATTM OTHER THAN SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE IN THE SE AND THE TYPICAL DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE SANDHILLS/PIEDMONT/EASTERN SLOPES OF BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT OVER FAR SE WI AS DEEP CONVECTION OCCURS ACROSS NRN IL AS A VORT MAX TRAVELS OVER THAT REGION AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH.
512 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN STALL ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
158 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BLANKETING THE ENTIRE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL START TO CHANGE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. A CLEAR AND QUIET NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS WITH RIDGING AT SFC AND ALOFT OVER PENNSYLVANIA. CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN BENEATH UPPER RIDGE AXIS LATER TODAY.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WITH CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPRAOCHES.
229 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015 229 AM CDT COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM LINGERING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MOST CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE PRECIP PUSHES SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM NEAR 50 ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S IN PORTIONS OF NW WI. WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTING IN TONIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE GENERALLY ACROSS THAT AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER ON WEDNESDAY. RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S SOUTH. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING.
334 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015 MAIN CHALLENGE IS CONVECTIVE TRENDS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHWARD MIGRATING COLD FRONT.
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A 500MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND A 500MB LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LATEST BRO RADAR INDICATES A FEW STEAMER SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 100 ACROSS THE UPPER VALLEY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS SHOWED LARGE SCALE RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHERN TO NORTHEAST US WITH A WEAK CLOSED LOW RETROGRADING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A SLOW MOVING TROUGH WAS PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LIED IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WAS PROVIDING LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. PRIMARILY DUE TO WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE.
WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ARE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH TRANSITIONS EAST. BY WEDNESDAY THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON PLACEMENT OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT. DEPARTING UPPER LOW CONTINUES INTO EASTERN CANADA REPLACED BY A LONGWAVE RIDGE THAT SHIFTS IN FROM THE WEST.
407 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015 A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA WAS PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES OUT OF THE REGION.
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FORECAST TO BE UP TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMS.
602 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WANE WEDNESDAY AS IT IS DISPLACED TO THE WEST AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SLOWLY APPROACHES.
Further north near the Nebraska border where few clouds have allowed temperatures to warm into the lower to mid 90s. Another round of storms is expected overnight into Tuesday morning as the upper level trough progresses eastward across the Northern and Central Plains. Tonight, lows should cool into the low to mid 70s with highs on Tuesday only in the low to mid 80s. Cold front and associated showers and thunderstorms should be moving to the southeast out of east central KS Tuesday evening.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AFTER 15Z TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO INITIALLY BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL ALABAMA AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST.
304 AM PDT TUE SEP 8 2015 A WEAK WARM FRONT PUSHING TOWARDS WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND SEND TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL WITH 70S AND 80S EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING. CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN THE LOWER 70S. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STRENGTHEN AND BUILD NORTH INTO THE AREA. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD NORTH INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THIS WEEK.
THIS SHOULD AID IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE CWA TODAY GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTN/EVE AS LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND DRAGS COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE AREA USHERING IN DRIER AIR ON DEVELOPING NORTHERLY WINDS. STILL CHANCES OF SHOWERS UNTIL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES WITH GREATEST CHANCES INCLUDING SOME STORMS TO BE FOUND SOUTH/EAST OF THE QUAD CITIES AND MAINLY IN THE EVE. FORECAST FOCUS ON A MAINLY DRY AND MUCH COOLER PATTERN.
612 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL STALL NORTH OF LAKE ERIE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AND PULL THE FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
300 AM PDT TUE SEP 8 2015 WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
ALOFT: WSW FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS THRU TOMORROW WITH A BROAD TROF OVER THE WRN USA. THIS TROF WILL WEAKEN/DEAMPLIFY TONIGHT AS IT HEADS INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS TROF WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS WE'VE SEEN HERE IN 3 WEEKS. THE MAIN TROF AXIS OVER THE W WILL MOVE E AS WELL TONIGHT AND BE MOVING OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE TOMORROW. SURFACE: THE FRONT THAT MOVED THRU YESTERDAY WAS PARTIALLY LIFTING BACK N AS A WARM FRONT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TO DEVELOP AND RACE E AS WELL. COULD SEE ISOLATED OR SCT SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOP AS THE UPR TROF APPROACHES. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING AND UNTIL THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
NORTHWEST OF AN ALTUS TO EL RENO TO CHANDLER LINE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE KANSAS OKLAHOMA STATE LINE. AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT MAY SERVE AS A FAVORABLE AREA FOR STORM FORMATION OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA IN THE 2 TO 5 PM TIME FRAME. STILL KEPT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR.
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAD SHIFTED SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE WEST /EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE/ AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF RETROGRADES CLOSER TO THE REGION. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE PLACES THE BEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND GENERALLY COVERING AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR WITH THE HIGHEST /30/ POPS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWING A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES SOUTH. THIS COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
BUT THIS WILL ALSO CHANGE BY WED AS THE STRONGEST CAP SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TO ORIENT BETWEEN A COLD FRONT MOVING AND STALLING NEAR THE ARKLATEX AREA AND A SURGING CBRZ. A STRONGER PUNCH OF COOL DRY AIR WILL REINFORCE THE COLD FRONT AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THROUGH BY SAT NIGHT. 35 NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE MARINE FORECAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE WEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
1252 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015 Updated aviation discussion for 06Z TAFs Quiet night expected with mid level ridge still across the area.
WITH A RIDGE IN PLACE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURES A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
Main hazard continues to be locally heavy rainfall as well as wind gusts, with freezing levels pretty high for hail to be much of a threat. Lows fall into the lower 60s overnight.
BUT RATHER WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT -- A RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BUILD WESTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE FOR LOCAL WEATHER. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODERATE POTENTIAL BUOYANCY EXPECTED.
Will trend towards the smaller chances as the cold front will be moving out of the area and with the atmosphere worked over by current early morning convection. Mostly cloudy skies will become partly cloudy to clear from northwest to southeast sections by late afternoon and evening as the upper trough exits. Highs today will be cooler and in the mid 80s except near 90 at Medicine Lodge.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL REACH THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S. FORECAST IS TRANSITIONING TOWARDS A COOLER PATTERN THIS WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO INTO THE HUDSON BAY REGION. SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK.
1235 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015 HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
A WELL DEFINED H2 TROUGH IS NOTED FROM NRN MB TO NEAR KLAS. TROUGH AXIS SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THINGS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. COOLER TEMPS ARE IN THE FUTURE AND LOOK TO STICK AROUND AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE CHANGING BY TONIGHT AS THE STUBBORN UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED FROM THE SRN PLAINS NE INTO THE MS VALLEY BEGINS TO FLATTEN TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO TROUGHING ALOFT DEPICTED ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NOW TRAVERSING THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE NRN GULF CENTERED NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER CONTINUING TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WSW ACROSS THE NRN GULF.
416 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U. KEPT IN SOME POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND LOWEST IN THE NORTH AND THIS SHOULD MOVE OUT BY TONIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER MOVING IN LATE. BROAD TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
341 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 BROAD UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST VICINITY OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IT WILL MIX WITH MORE MOIST AIR STREAMING IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE HIGH-RES WRF'S DEVELOP STORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
152 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HEIGHT FALLS TUE NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE AND STRONGER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF MAIN COLD FRONT.
336 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 RAIN WILL BE LIKELY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND SUPPRESS PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT. AND BECOME LIKELY BY AFTERNOON AS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS PROJECTED OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION.
353 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH TODAY.
150 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 AVIATION A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO REPLACE THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER OF THE PAST WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
As the well-advertised cold front expected to cross the forecast area today/tonight marches through, overall model consensus yields a continuation of pockets of storms here and there through midday with a better defined line (even if still broken) developing this afternoon. Regardless, look for clearing to occur from NW to SE as cooler, stable air moseys in behind the front. Wednesday through tomorrow night: As already alluded to, cooler air will be working its way into the region, thanks to the fropa tonight, making it feel much more like what can be expected for early September.
THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END MIDWEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN NORTHWEST COUNTIES AT THIS TIME AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH.
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME BANDED PRECIP OVER SOUTHEAST GA IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LOW WHICH CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST. ALL ACTIVITY MOVING WEST NORTH OF SFC AND UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER FAR NE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST THIS WEEK BUT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY MOVE NNW INTO SW GA AND TRACK NORTH. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE NORTHERN FLOW. THIS FLOW BEGINS SETTING UP WED AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC MOVES WEST INTO THE GULF THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.