Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Pretty good cold front looks to move across the CWA Friday night as an upper trough drops south out of Canada into the northern Rockys.
349 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019 The stretch of above normal heat will continue today as a mid- level ridge makes its presence felt. Below this ridge, a very hot and dry continental tropical air mass is settling in. 850 temperatures in the 22-24 degree Celsius range will correlate to surface temperatures in the low-to-mid 90s. Occasional gusts between 20 and 30 MPH will blow from the southwest as the surface pressure gradient remains tight in between the sub- tropical high positioned to our southeast and low pressure situated across the Central Plains.
Upper ridging will slowly build in today, with capping showing up on sounding progs in the 600-400mb layer. Highs will be in the lower and middle 90s. Lows should be in the lower and middle 70s in rural areas, upper 70s in urban centers, with almost no wind.
5 degrees C which may support some ACCAS development but confidence in this development is also a bit on the lower side. The least hot readings will likely be across southwest MN where the low levels take the longest to recover. Thursday night into Friday fairly flat upper level ridging builds into the area. This includes 700 mb temperatures of +14 to +16 with slightly cooler readings near highway 14.
Showers may develop on the higher terrain, but deep convection elsewhere appears likely to be capped by increasing H8 warm air. An upper-level ridge will amplify thru Fri night, with H5 heights well-above normal. The Excessive Heat Watch remains in place, covering the entire forecast area outside of the higher terrain. Considerable instability will be present Fri-Sat as an elevated mixed layer is advected around the nrn edge of the upper ridge into the nrn CONUS. Despite the abundant low-level moisture, anomalous heights and warm air aloft, will likely cap vertical convective development, thus limiting thunderstorm potential outside of the higher terrain. The upper trough will dig farther south by Tue, resulting in a return to drier weather and temperature near or slightly-below average.
This is where the higher percentages will be, with slight chance elsewhere.
346 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019 Today through tonight: Weak upper ridging will prevail across the ArkLaMiss through tonight. High temperatures will climb into the low to mid 90s and this combined with dewpoints in the mid 70s, heat index values will climb into the 100-105 degree range.
VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours under upper-lvl ridging blanketing the srn CONUS. Return flow will increase today as leeside troughing strengthens on the Front Range, becoming gusty late morning/afternoon. A mid level thermal ridge will remain anchored near the region so continued above normal high temperatures can be expected through the weekend.
1150 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019 Large scale flow consisting of a broad trough stretching across the Pacific NW/Northern Plains. To the south, a high pressure dome was in control over the southern half of the CONUS. South of the boundary dew point temperatures were in the low/mid 70s with current heat indices for the most part over 100F, and will continue to increase through the rest of this afternoon. A cold front approaching the northern CWA Friday night will the focus for small thunderstorm chances.
222 AM MDT Thu Jul 18 2019 Water vapor shows departing upper wave over the eastern Dakotas, with general zonal flow extending westward through the Pacific NW beneath an upper low/trof over southwestern Canada. Friday looks to be mostly dry albeit a bit cooler behind a weak surface front.
Unfortunately, this will likely be the only precipitation that occurs within the BRO CWFA during the short term forecast period, with 500 mb high pressure in control and maintaining precipitable water values near a relatively paltry 1.
On the large scale, a broad ridge will continue to result in hot and dry conditions across our region through the rest of the week into the first part of the weekend. Later in the weekend we'll see a fairly rapid transition to a much more amplified upper flow pattern with significant positive height anomalies well into Canada and digging/deepening trough in the Southeast. Deterministic GFS seems to be a fast and strong outlier with regards to eastern trough and attendant cold front.
The region will be between high pressure to the southeast and a trough of low pressure to the northwest this period. With the low level flow from the southwest, the east coast sea breeze will struggle to get past I95.
A weak cold front is currently making its way onshore, producing significant cloud cover west of the Cascades and rain along the coast and into the Umpqua Basin. A developing strong thermal trough will produce increasing north to northeast winds along the south coast Friday and Friday night with offshore flow there.
Temps will also be on the rise today with high pressure building into the region. Daytime highs will reach the lower 90s, however lingering moisture will keep dewpoints in the mid 70s and PWATS ~2" will push heat index values into the upper 90s to heat advisory criteria (105 degrees). Northwesterly flow will slide a weak disturbance down the dirty ridge providing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Muggy conditions will be realized with low temperatures cooling only into the low/mid 70s. Friday will be a repeat performance of very warm to hot conditions, with high temperatures in the low/mid 90s, and heat index values again in the upper 90s to 106 degree range.
955 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019 Low-level ridge axis across central CWA, with mid-level axis farther north.
The strongest winds are expected across the higher terrain of Glacier Park Region near the Continental Divide.
Low temperatures range from the low to mid 60s in far eastern Colorado, mid 60s to mid 70s east of the border.
911 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019 High pressure will be ridging across the area for the next couple of days, with the ridge axis across the north or just north of the area through much of the period. Highs will reach generally into the lower 90s, with afternoon heat index values of 100-105.
an upper level short wave trough moving in and strong daytime heating will all combine to create scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area this afternoon and evening. Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 74 91 75 / 30 20 30 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 72 90 73 / 30 20 30 20 Oak Ridge, TN 88 72 90 74 / 30 20 30 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 69 89 70 / 40 30 30 20.
Cam models agree in dry weather most of the day after the cold frontal passage. The extended will begin with cooler temperatures as the flow aloft remains slightly cyclonic with a significant upper low in central Canada extending into the northern plains. Surface cold front extends from western Montana into Idaho at 11z/6 am CDT. The cold front will move east into central North dakota by 7 PM CDT, then to Minnesota by 7 am Friday.
This will get easier over the next few days as PW values move upward and the low level inversion weakens. Most fronts that make their way into the gulf normally get supressed by the Bermuda ridge. But unfortunately, the increase in daily sh/ts activity is evidence that the ridge is backing off.
No change to the semi-permanent upper pattern (ridge over the SRN CONUS with disturbances moving around the NRN periphery of the ridge) during the period (GFS/ECMWF/NAM deterministic output).
VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours under upper-lvl ridging blanketing the srn CONUS. Return flow will increase today as leeside troughing strengthens on the Front Range, becoming gusty late morning/afternoon. /issued 333 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019/ Upper ridging continues over the region today with hot temperatures.
A dry, windy cold front will move through the area today.
Temperatures were in the mid 70 to upper 70s inland to the lower 80s near the coast. expect high pressure aloft to hold across the southern United States with the main storm dynamics to remain across the northern US where upper level flow is more robust. Isolated streaming showers the next couple of mornings will be possible with high pressure generally keeping activity to a lower threshold this afternoon and again on Friday as surface moisture mixes out. the upper level high will begin to retrograde west as a sharp upper level trough develops across the eastern US.
The broad upper level trough remains along the west coast.
Think it will mainly affect areas south of the highway 2 corridor early this morning. High temperatures should be a little warmer than yesterday, with the humidity still in place. Better heat and humidity will be located over southern Minnesota, where the low level jet has aided storms there early this morning.
High pressure over the region will allow for very warm temperatures and dry conditions across northern and central Nevada through the weekend.
534 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019 The stretch of above normal heat will continue today as a mid- level ridge makes its presence felt. Below this ridge, a very hot and humid maritime tropical air mass is settling in. 850 temperatures in the 22-24 degree Celsius range will correlate to surface temperatures in the low-to-mid 90s. Occasional gusts between 20 and 30 MPH will blow from the southwest as the surface pressure gradient remains tight in between the sub- tropical high positioned to our southeast and low pressure situated across the Central Plains.
The center of the subtropical high will be positioned well to the east, though the lack of depth to the Pacific trough will not allow for a steady influx of moisture through the weekend.
520 AM MDT Thu Jul 18 2019 Water vapor shows departing upper wave over the eastern Dakotas, with general zonal flow extending westward through the Pacific NW beneath an upper low/trof over southwestern Canada. Friday looks to be mostly dry albeit a bit cooler behind a weak surface front.
/Issued 351 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019/ High pressure continues to dominate the southern CONUS and hot to very hot temperatures are expected.
/15/ Today through tonight: Weak upper ridging will prevail across the ArkLaMiss through tonight. High temperatures will climb into the low to mid 90s and this combined with dewpoints in the mid 70s, heat index values will climb into the 100-105 degree range.
Subtropical ridge continues to dominate the weather pattern for South Central TX.
Mid level ridging over the next two days will allow for mainly typical summertime conditions with afternoon heat index values between 100F and 105F degrees, along with isolated to scattered showers and storms with the daytime heating. Later in the weekend, a mid level inverted trough feature will move into the forecast area from the east and this will allow for an increase in moisture that will help increase shower and thunderstorm activity.
Cloud coverage this morning has limited heating across the area, keeping temps a bit cooler than originally expected. Still expecting highs to reach into the mid 80s to low 90s this afternoon with dewpoint temps in the low to mid 70s.
Another complex of thunderstorms will develop much further north along a synoptic warm front across southern Minnesota into Wisconsin overnight: however, this activity will remain well north of the area. Even hotter weather will be on tap for Friday as the primary thermal ridge axis builds into Illinois.
Areas in northwest Arkansas may also be slightly below advisory criteria of 105F, with highs topping out in the low 90s.
High pressure over the area will limit thunderstorm development the next few days with temperatures remaining a couple of degrees warmer than average. So the basic idea of storms generating over the higher terrain south and east of Tucson and moving to the west looks good with limited ability to move out onto the lower elevation valleys.
Behind this weak wave we will see an increase in westerly ridgetop winds this morning and spreading into the valleys by afternoon.
Some high based showers will develop over the higher terrain of the White Mountains and to a lesser extent the western part of the Mogollon Rim.
The much bigger weather story will be the well advertised heat and humidity as a result of an upper ridge moving towards the East Coast. Except for Preston and Tucker counties, all locations are expected to rise into the low to mid 90s.
An upper short wave trough moving across the Southern Appalachian Region combined with strong diurnal heating has allowed scattered convection to develop over the area this afternoon. This will be aided by ridging aloft overnight. a ridge of high pressure will be in place over the region.
Localized area of convergence near the nrn hills will provide a potential focus of convective initiation in the next few hours despite warmer temperatures aloft and a generally drier air mass. Given axis of higher CAPE extending into this area along with 50 kt of effective shear, mostly focused in the lowest 4 km AGL, supercells would be the favorable mode with primary threats of large hail and damaging winds. Water vapor shows departing upper wave over the eastern Dakotas, with general zonal flow extending westward through the Pacific NW beneath an upper low/trof over southwestern Canada. Friday looks to be mostly dry albeit a bit cooler behind a weak surface front.
This will keep a threat of triple digit numbers in the lower desert valleys on Friday and with good mixing comes some afternoon breezes and increased fire spread concerns. This heat also continue to melt the highest elevation snowpack keeping rivers running well above normal for this time of year. The anomalously low heights along the Pacific Coast will shift offshore beginning tomorrow and this will allow high pressure to amplify back northward.
327 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019 Temperatures continue to warm this afternoon and with the dew points in the lower to mid 70s, the heat index values continue to be a few degrees either side of 100 already this afternoon.
No notable change in position of ridge over the peninsula will lead to persistence forecast. Ltst guid from GFS shows a little more progressive weakening of ridge, and or displacement to the south of the area (as shown by Euro) by Tue and continuing through midweek. Ridge axis across the Atlantic waters will maintain favorable wind/sea conditions.
The heat continues across western Kansas with highs reaching into the low 100s each afternoon with the heat index around 105 degrees across eastern zones.
Currently, a broad upper level ridge centered over AZ/NM is resulting in hot and dry weather across southern Colorado. Temperatures span the upper 90s to low 100s across the eastern plains, and 80s in the high valleys. Temperatures this evening will fall into the mid to upper 60s across the plains, and mid 40s to 50s in the high valleys. Much of the same in store for tomorrow, as the upper ridge remains in place. Temperatures again in the low to mid 100s across the plains, and upper 80s to mid 90s in the high valleys.
Weak troughiness continuing over the western CONUS keeping temperatures near to slightly below seasonal normals. Temperatures are trending a bit warmer today in response to the trough lifting some and height rises taking place.
143 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019 High pressure will ridge across the area through the weekend keeping a generally SE flow in place with afternoon sea breezes turning winds onshore each day. Highs will generally be 90-95 with heat index values of 100-105 each afternoon, with lows in the lower to mid 70s inland to around 80 near the coast each night.
Hot and humid conditions will continue through the weekend with heat indices from 102 to 105 degrees as an upper level ridge remains locked in the region.
Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s and if cloud cover clears out more than anticipated, fog is possible, especially where there has been rainfall. A ridge will continue to expand across the lower half of the CONUS tomorrow as a trough gets cut off in the OH Valley and retrogrades SW back into the TN Valley. This will provide some lift and additional moisture to develop mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms with the highest chances E of I-65. Afternoon temps are expected to reach the lower 90s and with lingering dewpoints in the lower 70s and PWATS around 2", the heat index will rise to 100 degrees or higher. The ridge will weaken this weekend has a trough slides across the southern Canadian border. Daytime highs could be a tad higher but once again reach the lower 90s.
Low level moisture advection is unfortunately not allowing sfc dewpoints to mix out, hovering in the lower to middle 70s throughout the afternoon. Little changes made to the forecast on Friday as the upper high continues to build across the southern CONUS.
Overall, highs will be in the lower to middle 90s with heat indices in the 100 to 110 degree range.
1127 AM MDT Thu Jul 18 2019 Water vapor shows departing upper wave over the eastern Dakotas, with general zonal flow extending westward through the Pacific NW beneath an upper low/trof over southwestern Canada. Friday looks to be mostly dry albeit a bit cooler behind a weak surface front.
/Tonight through Friday Night/ Broad upper level ridging in place across the entire srn CONUS to remain the primary influence upon our weather during the short term.
/Issued 241 AM PDT Thu Jul 18 2019/ A weak cold front is currently making its way onshore, producing significant cloud cover west of the Cascades and rain along the coast and into the Umpqua Basin. A developing strong thermal trough will produce increasing north to northeast winds along the south coast Friday and Friday night with offshore flow there.
200 PM MDT Thu Jul 18 2019 Not much change in the short term period, with excessive heat still the main story due to an upper ridge parked over the central plains. At the surface, will see the lee trough set up near the Colorado/Kansas border area, stretching into southwest Nebraska. A couple of the CAMs show isolated storms popping up in the afternoon, so decided to include some slight chance pops in the late afternoon/early evening near expected location of the trough. will transition to amplified NNW flow as models bring in upper level ridging over the Rockies at 500/700 mb. Coinciding with the building of the upper ridge to our west.
Mid to upper level ridge will continue over southeast Texas, limiting shower activity today and Friday. Low temperatures will range from the mid 70s to low 80s tonight and high temperatures will range from the low to mid 90s Friday.
332 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019 The Northern Plains is situated under zonal flow this afternoon, with upper level lows parked over the Canadian Rockies and near Hudson Bay. Temperatures will be cooler this weekend, with highs mainly in the 70s.
An upper level short wave trough moving across the Southern Appalachian Region combined with strong diurnal heating has allowed scattered convection to develop over the area this afternoon. This will be aided by ridging aloft overnight. a ridge of high pressure will be in place over the region.
/issued 333 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019/ Upper ridging continues over the region today with hot temperatures.
Upper low moving through BC today with strong westerly flow aloft over Washington and Oregon.
The higher terrain along the Continental Divide and Glacier National Park will see the highest wind gusts of around 50 mph to 55 mph later this afternoon and evening.
1214 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019 The stretch of above normal heat will continue today as a mid- level ridge makes its presence felt. Below this ridge, a very hot and humid maritime tropical air mass is settling in. 850 temperatures in the 22-24 degree Celsius range will correlate to surface temperatures in the low-to-mid 90s. Occasional gusts between 20 and 30 MPH will blow from the southwest as the surface pressure gradient remains tight in between the sub- tropical high positioned to our southeast and low pressure situated across the Central Plains.
A 500mb ridge will remain in place over the southern US.
This trough and the Big Bend seabreeze have forced convection across the eastern 2/3 of the region, and isolated storms elsewhere.
The Northern Plains is situated under zonal flow this afternoon, with upper level lows parked over the Canadian Rockies and near Hudson Bay. Temperatures will be cooler this weekend, with highs mainly in the 70s.
Mostly clear conditions underneath high pressure were common across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this evening.
The exception will be Brookings as thermal trough will bring warmer than normal temperatures to that area.
Better forcing arrives by Friday morning with a cold frontal passage and models show a little bit better signal (west to east progression). Temps will be a bit cooler Friday, but still not too far from seasonal normals (upper 70s to lower 80s). The risk of a shower or tstm will exist west of the CWA, associated with some warm air advection along the western periphery of the high.
443 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019 High pressure, southerly winds, and clear skies will remain over the area through Friday. Models are in decent agreement that a cold front will be approaching northeast Nebraska Friday night.
622 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019 Temperatures continue to warm this afternoon and with the dew points in the lower to mid 70s, the heat index values continue to be a few degrees either side of 100 already this afternoon.
Drying and warming trend over the weekend as high pressure builds into the area.
/00Z TAFS/ Broad high pressure aloft over Texas will maintain a persistence trend diurnally with a few hours of mvfr skies borderlining into ifr cigs mainly between 10Z and 14Z along I-35. Subtropical ridge continues to dominate the weather pattern for South Central TX.
Wet Monsoonal flow continues to look a few days off, with showers and thunderstorms limited to the higher terrain of the White Mountains and eastern Mogollon Rim through the rest of this week. This will lead to dry and potential dangerous temperature values in the lower elevations especially in locations such as the Grand Canyon where temperatures could climb into the lower 110s.
Dry and seasonally warm conditions will continue across the state through the end of the week with high pressure strengthening across the region during the latter half of the weekend.
It will be another very warm and humid overnight period with lows in the lower and middle 70s.
The one exception is across the western North Atlantic where a TUTT-like cell and its steepened mid-upper level lapse rates have tapped into the lower level maritime cumulus. Mean low-level ridging continues to stretch west across northern Florida, and yet it has weakened in the last 12 hours, with falling heights (see regional 00Z RAOBS) between 925-700 mb.
Slightly cooler temperatures will be seen tomorrow with highs ranging from the upper 80s in the southern Sacramento Valley to the upper 90s in the north. Slight troughing over the area will give way to an amplifying high pressure over the Great Basin by late weekend.
The much bigger weather story will be the well advertised heat and humidity as a result of an upper ridge moving towards the East Coast. Except for the higher elevations of Preston, Garrett, and Tucker counties, all locations are under Excessive Heat Warnings or Advisories.
627 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019 High pressure, southerly winds, and clear skies will remain over the area through Friday. Models are in decent agreement that a cold front will be approaching northeast Nebraska Friday night.
854 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019 Evening sea breeze and outflow mergers will focus early evening tstorms between the I-95 corridor and Highway 301 generally north of I-10, with a drift back toward the coast under light westerly flow generally on the northern periphery of the 1000-700 mb ridge across the FL peninsula. Mild and muggy conditions continue trending a bit warmer than last night, with lows in the low/mid 70s inland to mid/upper 70s coast.