Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Moderate northerly winds will become light overnight and then shift out of the northeast Monday afternoon as the high pressure slides east. /issued 231 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): Winds are increasing across the area in the wake of a cold front. High pressure will then settle in across the region maintaining clear skies and cooler temperatures through Monday night.
230 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2020 High pressure ridging will dominate the forecast area for the next couple of days.
930 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2020 Winds have dropped to around 10 mph and skies remain clear (other than a few clouds in the eastern Blue Grass) as high pressure slides across Missouri. At this point, winds are not expected to go completely calm in most locations, but in some protected areas, the mercury could dip into the lower 20s, approaching record readings for November 2. The cold air will be short-lived, though, as winds will swing back to the southwest under sunny skies Monday, allowing both radiative heating and warm air advection to send temperatures back above freezing by 9 am to around 50 for highs.
517 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2020 Latest surface analysis is showing that the surface front has moved well south of the area at the same time that high pressure was centered over eastern Kansas. Northwest winds are gusting into the 25-35 mph range between the high and the deep low over southeast Canada. These winds will diminish this evening as the HREF shows the high moving southeast across southern Missouri into the lower Mississippi Valley tonight into Monday. Dry weather is expected through Monday night as heights build over the region behind the exiting upper low and a ridge building in from the West Coast. Highs on Monday will moderate into the 50s as winds turn out of southwest on the backside of the high.
Winds have dropped to around 10 mph and skies remain clear (other than a few clouds in the eastern Blue Grass) as high pressure slides across Missouri. At this point, winds are not expected to go completely calm in most locations, but in some protected areas, the mercury could dip into the lower 20s, approaching record readings for November 2. The cold air will be short-lived, though, as winds will swing back to the southwest under sunny skies Monday, allowing both radiative heating and warm air advection to send temperatures back above freezing by 9 am to around 50 for highs.
A slight upward adjustment may be needed to forecast lows, but the Freeze Warning will be continued as most locations will still likely drop to the lower 30s and upper 20s. VFR through the period at all sites as cold advection prevails and high pressure builds behind a departing cold front. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 34 54 36 63 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 31 50 35 60 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 31 52 33 61 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 28 47 30 57 35 / 10 0 0 0 0 NC.
/issued 922 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2020/ A reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air will continue to move into the Four State Region overnight in wake of today's cold front. Expecting lows to fall into the mid 30s in the frost areas, but isolated freezing temperatures in these locations are possible. However, since freezing temps are expected to be isolated in coverage, opted not to introduce a Freeze Warning. However, temperatures haven't really shown the effects from the front thus far with mostly upper 60s and lower 70s this afternoon which is a bit warmer than expected. The cold air advection behind the front will be more evident as well with temperatures on Monday as we should see highs average some 10 degrees cooler than today, generally ranging from the lower to mid 60s with full sunshine.
107 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2020 High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley tonight into Monday, bringing colder weather. The high will gradually move off to the east into mid week. Return flow around the high will bring a warming trend to the region. Expect lows in the lower and middle 30s.
Otherwise temperatures in eastern ND behaving with a very slow fall with mostly upper 20s/low 30s, though in the higher terrain on western edge of RRV seeing a bit warmer temperatures, such as 41 in Walhalla. This is trying to eek in some warmer temperatures out of the High Plains, although today's temps will remain on the chilly side in the 30s and 40s, coolest near central MN. This trough will serve nothing more than to speed up a warm and dry air mass over the region as noted by an advertised LLJ promoting warming temps aloft. With the overall calm winds and dry air mass, temps may dip into the low 20s within interior Minnesota. Dry and relatively warm air mass overhead sits underneath ridging aloft.
Freezing conditions will be widespread Monday morning, with a few isolated spots seeing the mid 20s.
306 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2020 Deep layer cold northwest flow governing local conditions early this morning, as the trailing shear axis associated with the vacating high amplitude trough migrates into the great lakes.
1106 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2020 A widespread hard freeze is expected overnight across the area, with lows in the low to mid 20s with clear skies.
1012 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2020 A few showers were developing along a convergence band in the southeast Gulf well south of the approaching front, with the Keys currently in a low in the easterly flow as ridging exits the western Atlantic. It was interesting to note westerlies in excess of 30 knots now established above 300 mb as deep layer troughing continued to dig while sweeping toward the eastern seaboard. The first strong cold front of the season is expected to pass through the Keys and its island terminals Monday morning.
High pressure and clear skies will continue through Monday.
Winds have generally become light and variable across the Rio Grande Valley late tonight, but as the high pressure moves eastward tomorrow, winds will become light then moderate and shift from northeasterly early in the day to easterly by the afternoon. Moderate northerly winds will become light overnight and then shift out of the northeast Monday afternoon as the high pressure slides east. /issued 231 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): Winds are increasing across the area in the wake of a cold front. High pressure will then settle in across the region maintaining clear skies and cooler temperatures through Monday night.
230 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2020 Early this morning regional satellite imagery indicated a broad northwest flow aloft across the Upper Midwest, with a deep trough over the east coast, and an upper ridge centered across the Rockies, and into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, an area of high pressure was centered across the mid section of the nation, with a broad area of south/southwest winds across the Upper Midwest.
Expect min temps ranging from the upper 20s over the interior to the lower to mid 30s near the Great Lakes under mostly clear skies, except for some lingering lake clouds over the tip of the Keweenaw and eastern counties.
316 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2020 Lake enhanced snow showers will continue overnight; the greatest accumulation of 4-6 inches storm total will be in the ridges and I-80 corridor. Good instability evident in the strong returns due to the higher tops in the snow showers and persistent bands has lead to the possibility of an upgrade. With no temperature inversion tonight due to prevailing cold air advection and persistent strong winds, wind chill values Monday morning will be in the low-20s across the region; just above zero in the WV/MD ridges.
Will likely see a few locations - in northern Mississippi especially - dip to near the freezing mark. /NF/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Monday: Cooler than normal and dry through the period. Mid afternoon surface analysis had the dry cold front already south of our CWA with an 1034mb high centered over the Central Plains. This high will shift south southeast through Monday becoming centered over our CWA by afternoon. This high will bring a cooler and much drier airmass to our region. Guidance has trended slightly cooler with Monday morning lows and the wind may decouple by morning allowing patchy light frost to develop along and north of Highway 82.
309 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2020 A strong cold front will move across the area this evening. Cold high pressure will follow through early this week. Anomalously deep trough over the Eastern US will have the coldest air of the season centered over the region today. These wind gusts will make it feel cooler, especially this morning with wind chills expected to be in the mid to upper 20s across the north to near freezing across the south.
With the lighter winds, temperatures should radiate out quite efficiently before sunrise with lows temperatures this morning dipping down into the upper 20s to near freezing. As for the rest of the day, high pressure centered to our west will result in a cool and breezy Monday. Northerly flow will will dampen the typical daytime heating as afternoon highs only reach the low to mid 50s. The breezy conditions this afternoon will come to end by this evening as a high pressure system to our west slowly slides east overnight. This will set up ideal radiational cooling conditions with light winds and clear skies dropping temperatures across the area into the lower 30s. While not expecting sub-freezing temperatures tonight due to higher surface dewpoints, areas of frost are certainly possible.
This, along with plenty of sunshine today, will lead to a much warmer day than yesterday, as highs get back into the upper 40s and 50s. A flat upper level ridge will be in place across the CONUS through the week leading to warmer and quiet weather.
The cold front is not moving much further south (in fact looks as though it has stalled over southern AL and central GA). This has helped to keep the center of the high pressure and coldest air over Missouri and eastern Nebraska at this hour. Not as certain all of northern Alabama will see freezing conditions for 3 hours or more due to a possible lingering pressure gradient (winds). At this point, we are most certain of seeing freezing conditions right now in Southern middle Tennessee and in valley areas near the Tennessee River. However, if winds are a few miles an hour slower than expected, could see freezing conditions everywhere. Therefore, leaving the freezing warning in place for all of our northern Alabama and Tennessee counties until 8 AM.
(Today and tonight) We will continue the Frost Advisory for south-central and southeast counties of our CWA through 9 AM, generally the area where we have not had widespread freezing temperatures yet. A light freeze may also occur in the low lying spots within the advisory. Southerly flow will increase this afternoon as low level ridge continues its progression to our southeast.
The Kentucky Mesonet and other surrounding obs now have most everyone below freezing at this point, minus a few southern counties and a few of the typical mild spots. Temps are still expected to bottom out mostly in the 25 to 30 degree range, with a few of the cooler spots into the low 20s by dawn.
This will continue the north-northeast winds bringing in cooler and drier air once again to the region. Expect lows near 40 across Central Louisiana to the lower/mid 40s elsewhere. /issued 404 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2020/ Stretch of nice weather continues across the area this afternoon, with mild/warm temperatures into the lower to mid 70s under plenty of early November sun. A cooler and much drier airmass will accompany this high as it settles into the NW Gulf Coast region, with our coldest temperatures of the season expected TUE morning, with mid to upper 30s expected across parts of interior SE TX and Central LA and lower 40s across the I-10 corridor.
940 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2020 (Issued 923 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2020) Winds have weaken this evening as high pressure works it way across the region and all wind headlines have expired. Otherwise, lowered temps a bit tonight given the lighter winds and mostly clear skies, but the rest of the forecast remains on track with warmer and quiet weather through the week.
1058 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2020 A chilly, yet pleasant fall day is ongoing this afternoon with temperatures around 50 degrees under mostly clear skies and a northwesterly breeze as the region remains on the back side of a longwave trough currently centered from Ontario southward into the southeastern US. Overnight lows are projected to drop to freezing or colder for almost the entire region (possibly remaining slightly above freezing in the more urban areas of the KC metro). Tomorrow will be a bit of a transition day as the aforementioned trough exits the region to the east and mid to upper level ridging begins to build in from the west. Winds will turn southwesterly tomorrow with some warmer temperatures returning, with highs forecasted to reach the low to mid 60s (warmer temperatures near the MO/KS border).
High pressure and dry conditions will be in place through the week into the weekend. Warmer temperatures will move in by mid week with highs near 70 by the latter portions of the work-week.
Latest doppler weather radar wind profiles in the lower levels indicate the presence of non-convective low level speed shear at 2 kft where northerly flow around 45 kts is shown. A well defined longwave upper trough extending from Ontario, Canada southward across the southeast US this evening has ushered in a deeply dry environment. However, they look to struggle to approach 60 degrees over the Lower Tombigbee and Alabama river Delta. The remainder of the area is forecast to be in the lower to mid 60s.
Dry airmass, subsiding wind speeds, and clear skies will support a widespread freeze, with areas of frost across much of the rest of the forecast area that will remain just above freezing overnight.
Locations further west were generally in the lower 30s. High temps today will range from the upper 50s out east to the lower 60s across the west as the departing high pressure turns winds to the southwest and increases during the afternoon. As usual, models are too moist with dewpoints behind the departing high pressure, therefore we used a CONSMOS/ARW blend which mixes down afternoon humidity values into the upper 20 to around 30 percent range. Southerly winds tonight will remain in the 5-10mph range therefore lows will generally be 5-10 degrees warmer than this morning.
922 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2020 A reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air will continue to move into the Four State Region overnight in wake of today's cold front. Expecting lows to fall into the mid 30s in the frost areas, but isolated freezing temperatures in these locations are possible. However, since freezing temps are expected to be isolated in coverage, opted not to introduce a Freeze Warning. However, temperatures haven't really shown the effects from the front thus far with mostly upper 60s and lower 70s this afternoon which is a bit warmer than expected. The cold air advection behind the front will be more evident as well with temperatures on Monday as we should see highs average some 10 degrees cooler than today, generally ranging from the lower to mid 60s with full sunshine.
TWH High pressure ridging will dominate the forecast area for the next couple of days.
Dry air moves in from the west beneath an upper level ridge axis through the rest of the overnight period with breezy winds mainly limited to areas along the immediate east slopes of the Rockies.
Bumped down temperatures slightly as observations over this evening have trended a degree or two cooler than the forecast.
(Today and tonight) Quiet weather will continue today across West Central Texas, with a mid-upper level high pressure in place.
249 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2020 Many locations were experiencing the coldest night of the season so far, courtesy of cold high pressure centered over Missouri. Associated clear skies, light winds and very dry air has allowed temperatures to cool into the lower to mid 20s, with some colder drainage locations reporting upper teens as of 2 am. with a longwave trough over the Appalachians and a ridge axis just west of the Rockies. Forecast soundings show mixing to around 925 mb this afternoon, which would lead to highs from the lower 50s over northwest IL, to the central and upper 50s elsewhere over the forecast area. Forecast lows were trended closer to the low end of model guidance, from the lower 30s northeast to upper 30s in the far south.
1031 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2020 A ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern through the short term. High cirrus clouds will increase tonight through Monday night from south to north as a closed low spins over southern California.
High pressure will build in across the CWA this evening. With the winds staying up, the Freeze Warning may be a bit marginal outside of the higher terrain. /Issued 254 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2020/ A cold front was working its way across north and central GA this afternoon as seen by clearing skies and increasing northwest winds. With high pressure building across the area. The higher elevations especially are looking at advisory criteria.
Temperatures are quite a bit warmer now than yesterday evening at this time. Even the ridgetop winds should decrease to 15-20 mph by later tonight. We already lowered tonight's lows for the mountain valley bottoms, while the ridges will be mild for this time of year.
923 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2020 The cold front is not moving much further south (in fact looks as though it has stalled over southern AL and central GA). This has helped to keep the center of the high pressure and coldest air over Missouri and eastern Nebraska at this hour. Not as certain all of northern Alabama will see freezing conditions for 3 hours or more due to a possible lingering pressure gradient (winds). At this point, we are most certain of seeing freezing conditions right now in Southern middle Tennessee and in valley areas near the Tennessee River. However, if winds are a few miles an hour slower than expected, could see freezing conditions everywhere. Therefore, leaving the freezing warning in place for all of our northern Alabama and Tennessee counties until 8 AM.
A well defined longwave upper trough extending from Ontario, Canada southward across the southeast US this evening has ushered in a deeply dry environment. However, they look to struggle to approach 60 degrees over the Lower Tombigbee and Alabama river Delta. The remainder of the area is forecast to be in the lower to mid 60s.
Upper ridging gives way to a weak trough midweek allowing a westerly component to develop in the surface flow.
Large scale ridge will continue to build east today with rising heights and northwest then westerly zonal flow developing later today into Tuesday. Considering the favorable flow and very warm temps aloft potential is there for most locations to reach the mid 50s and even the lower 60s can't be ruled out within the RRV and locations west. Westerly flow Tuesday will be even more favorable, and guidance is showing a strong signal for mid 60s in the RRV and west, with "cooler" spots of our CWA in the mid-upper 50s (mainly MN).
920 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2020 Cold and dry high pressure will control the weather through midweek. While one or two isolated locations may have dropped below freezing, do not think that conditions were widespread enough to eliminate any counties from the freeze program. Still, highs will only reach the low to mid 50s. Although clear skies and relatively calm winds will develop Tuesday night and support excellent radiational cooling, dewpoint temperatures will increase throughout the day Tuesday and limit the extent of the cooling to the upper 30s across the Piedmont to the low 40s elsewhere.
Look for continued high pressure to dominate the area bringing above normal temperatures, clear conditions, and overall light winds. The high pressure ridge moves east later today with the upper level flow becoming more west southwest by late Tuesday bringing a slight increase of winds by late Tuesday.
218 AM MST Mon Nov 2 2020 Ridge of high pressure will stick over the area through late in the week.
Most of the remainder of the Midsouth is in the 30s, though Tupelo is still in the low 40s. Some of our southern most locations in the Freeze Warning may not quite make it to freezing, but at this point modifying the warning would be splitting hairs.
Snow showers will wane this morning as the cold mid level core associated with the exiting low pressure trough warms. A building ridge in response to ern Pacific/wrn CONUS troughing will support dry weather and moderating temperature for the remainder of the week.
Ridging pattern begins to take hold across the region today, with the peak of the ridge building across the western portion of the CONUS. Some gusts up to 25 mph are possible later today, particularly across the Buffalo Ridge. Most of the extended appears quiet, warm, and dry, as overall ridge pattern remains in place and works to the east through the week.
403 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2020 High pressure in the Upper Midwest will settle over the Gulf states later today. Flow will turn to the southwest on Tuesday, permitting warmer temperatures to return to the region.
A stronger system may bring cooler and rainier conditions with some possible mountain snow towards the end of the week. The upper level ridge over the West Coast will yield yet another quiet weather day across northwest California, with patchy stratus and fog along the coast giving way to sunshine during the afternoon.
Generally quiet weather continues as high pressure builds into the region today. Cooler temperatures are expected today with highs back into the middle 70s after lower 80s yesterday. Low temperatures fall back into the lower to mid 40s for northern portions of the area tonight with upper 40s to around 50 south where dpts remain slightly higher.
As of 5am the far Lower Keys are just starting to realize breezy conditions from the north, but windy conditions have already developed across much of the state of Florida behind the first strong cold front of the season.
An expansive upper-level ridge will remain across portions of the western two-thirds of the CONUS through much of the work week, keeping dry weather conditions along with colder temperatures well north of our area. Looking ahead, a large upper trough finally establishes itself across the western CONUS by late in the week. How exactly this evolves remains uncertain, but will likely introduce precipitation chances and cooler weather back into the area by late in the weekend.
349 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2020 Continental high pressure continues to build into the Lower Mississippi River Valley with the strongest cold air advection taking place at this time.
539 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2020 Early this morning regional satellite imagery indicated broad northwest flow aloft across the Upper Midwest, with a deep trough over the east coast and an upper ridge centered across the Rockies and into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, an area of high pressure was centered across the mid section of the nation, with a broad area of south/southwest winds across the Upper Midwest.
As ridging builds over Alabama and pressure gradients begin to relax, winds should continue to decrease overall with gusts less prevalent. However, with northerly winds today, look for a much cooler day today with highs only in the middle 50s to the lower 60s. During today the ridge center is expected to settle in over the Deep South. On Tuesday the ridge should nudge slightly eastward to be centered over the Southeast U.
Temperatures are at or near freezing in the upgraded Counties already. Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas will see another jump in temperatures on Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure builds aloft over the area.
509 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2020 An upper-level trough will continue to progress eastward into the Northeast today with subsidence via mid-level height rises across the Midwest. At low levels, west-southwesterly flow will begin to advect warmer air into the region with 850-hPa temps rising to around 6. On Tuesday, low- level WAA will continue as an upper-level ridge shifts into the central U.