Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A trailing trough extends southward into Coahuila which has driven a cold front through the region almost 8 hour ahead of schedule from last night's expectations. Some light snow was evident on RADAR around midnight thanks to the proximity of a secondary-core in the upper level low.
Models continue to back off of snowfall chances for the far western mountain ranges today, with minimal accumulation expected for only the highest elevations.
304 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2019 Low clouds/patchy fog continue across portions of northeast Oklahoma, along/north of secondary cold front.
Low pressure currently sits west of British Columbia with its associated cold front trailing down the West Coast. Snow elevation for this event will generally be around 4000-5000 feet with the lowest snow levels being up around the Cascades.
As the cold front swings across the area this afternoon, precip should come to an end and winds will shift to a wrly/nwrly direction along with clearing skies. An area of low pressure is ejecting northeast into the Great Lake Region this morning. A cold front stretches south across the Mississippi Valley then southwest into the local area. A secondary front stretches from the low southwest into OK and North Texas and is diving southeast.
trough. 09z subjective surface analysis indicates a cold front now approaching the Oklahoma/Arkansas border.
711 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2019 Atlantic high pressure reaching across the area to the Gulf of Mexico will continue to ease eastward today with southeasterly lower level flow becoming south-southeast then south by this evening. Mid level ridging over FL from the Bahamas and Cuba will preclude any thunderstorms and help keep temperatures above normal today. High pressure across the waters will result in southeast to south winds at 15 knots or less and seas 3 feet or less through tonight.
One last good spoke of a trough on the backside of the low is still expected to swing through today and drop another 2 to 4 inches on parts of the CWA, with more over our north/northwest.
Water vapor loop indicated upper low was located over eastern NE. Upper low forecast to move into southwest MN then turn back to the south and east in IA on Mon. Blowing snow is expected to be confined mostly to the ND side as some freezing drizzle/freezing rain will be possible over parts of northwest/west central MN. This will produce the potential for freezing drizzle/freezing rain mainly over the MN side but cant rule out the freezing precip couldn't move into eastern ND.
405 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2019 Mid/upper level low is centered directly overhead this morning per latest water vapor imagery with the dry slot having moved in across much of the area this morning. This has allowed the trailing surface cold front to push through portions of our western counties. Cooling at the surface is fairly slow which has led to some mix of freezing rain/snow/rain before transitioning over to all snow. This mid/upper level low is forecast to continue to move northeast into southwestern MN before stalling slightly and drifting southeastward across northern Iowa through Monday. A strong deformation axis behind the low today will continue to produce heavy snowfall across portions of northern Nebraska with an additional 4-7" across our very far northwestern counties. Mixed precipitation at KOFK (rain/sleet/freezing rain/snow) should trend toward all snow by 08-10Z.
559 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2019 Water vapor loop indicated upper low was located over eastern NE. Upper low forecast to move into southwest MN then turn back to the south and east in IA on Mon. Blowing snow is expected to be confined mostly to the ND side as some freezing drizzle/freezing rain will be possible over parts of northwest/west central MN. This will produce the potential for freezing drizzle/freezing rain mainly over the MN side but cant rule out the freezing precip couldn't move into eastern ND.
This allows enough time for temps to rise to freezing or above in southern areas before the snow arrives so that main roads will become only wet.
Still seeing lots of remnant moisture to the south side of the low, with some patchy drizzle still possible before sunrise across central KS. Otherwise, wraparound light snow to the SW side of the low will slowly shift NE of the forecast area early this morning, mainly staying just to the NW of the area. Mon-Tue: Expect temperatures near seasonal averages for the end of the year, with max temps around 40 with dry weather prevailing as the NW flow gradually becomes more zonal, with weak ridging moving across the area.
212 AM PST Sun Dec 29 2019 A weak ridge aloft will keep the weather fair, dry and cool again today. A stronger ridge aloft will provide fair, dry, and warmer weather for the remainder of the week. There are still some cold pockets this morning so some patchy frost is still likely in the lower wind-sheltered areas. Once the low drops far enough south, a strong high pressure system over the EastPac should expand east over CA, providing fair, dry, and warmer weather for the remainder of the week.
305 AM MST Sun Dec 29 2019 High pressure across the region will help maintain dry weather conditions across the region over the next couple of days, though expect continued seasonably cold temperatures.
Mid/upper level low is centered directly overhead this morning per latest water vapor imagery with the dry slot having moved in across much of the area this morning. This has allowed the trailing surface cold front to push through portions of our western counties. Cooling at the surface is fairly slow which has led to some mix of freezing rain/snow/rain before transitioning over to all snow. This mid/upper level low is forecast to continue to move northeast into southwestern MN before stalling slightly and drifting southeastward across northern Iowa through Monday. A strong deformation axis behind the low today will continue to produce heavy snowfall across portions of northern Nebraska with an additional 4-7" across our very far northwestern counties.
251 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2019 Occasional rain will continue into Monday, as a storm system pushes into eastern Canada, and a cold front swings towards the Commonwealth.
257 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019 Cold front will continue to slide to the east across forecast area early this evening.
Weather system now on our doorstep, but moving more northeast than east so it will take a while for rains for spread across much of the area, whereas tonight system will kick through more quickly as cold front pushes through. GM Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 48 55 36 51 / 60 90 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 50 57 36 48 / 30 80 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 70 48 55 36 47 / 60 100 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 72 51 57 33 45 / 30 70 30 0 10 TN.
1051 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2019 Band of higher moisture in the lower levels remains across the area, with an elevated 20-25 knot S/SE flow just above the surface. Skies will remain mostly cloudy with warmer than normal highs in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.
Showers may favor the Lower Keys early in the morning, transitioning to favor the Upper Keys by later on Monday morning. Muggy dewpoints in the lower 70s are holding nighttime low temperatures up in the mid 70s, which is about 10 degrees above normal for late December. A weak cold frontal passage on Tue morning will be followed by a turn to moderate northerly breezes on Tue afternoon and evening.
/issued 428 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2019/ (Today and Tonight) A cold front has brought colder air into West Central Texas. This colder air will help produce afternoon highs today slightly cooler than usual late December highs. For tonight, light winds and clear skies will produce lows mainly in the 25 to 30 range; that too is much cooler than usual late December lows.
An upper ridge remains in place over the Great Basin this morning while an upper low centered over the Great Plains continues to slowly move eastward.
LLWS conditions are possible at all TAF sites between 01-10Z as the low level jet moves across the Tennessee valley. Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 48 55 36 51 / 60 90 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 50 57 36 48 / 30 80 10 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 70 48 55 36 47 / 60 100 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 72 51 57 33 45 / 30 70 30 10 10 TN.
However, a brief period of MVFR ceilings and visibilities is expected as a band of showers and thunderstorms moves through in advance of a passing cold front.
/issued 711 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2019/ Atlantic high pressure reaching across the area to the Gulf of Mexico will continue to ease eastward today with southeasterly lower level flow becoming south-southeast then south by this evening. Mid level ridging over FL from the Bahamas and Cuba will preclude any thunderstorms and help keep temperatures above normal today. High pressure across the waters will result in southeast to south winds at 15 knots or less and seas 3 feet or less through tonight.
232 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2019 An approaching cold front will lead to widespread rain today through early Monday.
These parameters are increasing now, and will continue to do so into the late afternoon, holding on til our cold front passes later this evening. Cold front with this system will pass later this evening. Our trailing upper trough more so dampens into mid-week but then upper flow turns southwest early Thu as jet carves out deep trough across the desert southwest into the nations mid-section.
Impressive low level lapse rates within the relatively moist thermal trof rotating around the closed low to our north will continue to support light snow and enhanced moderate snow showers thru early this evening across portions of central and eastern Kansas.
We also lowered the high temp forecast for much of the area. Latest models agreeing reasonably well that snow will last well into the afternoon from the Lower Treasure Valley east into the western Magic Valley, and into the mountains of southwest Idaho and Baker County, Oregon. This allows enough time for temps to rise to freezing or above in southern areas before the snow arrives so that main roads will become only wet.
132 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2019 An approaching cold front will lead to widespread rain today through Monday.
Final line of storms is possible around 02Z-04Z along a cold front which will bring a quick end to precipitation once it swings through.
The breezy conditions will continue on Monday across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as the low pressure system moves into Great Lakes Region.
The highest accumulations are expected to fall over West Tennessee near the Tennessee River. The forecast period starts off with a deep upper low over the Great Lakes Region which circulates a dry polar airmass across the South. The Canadian and ECMWF have consistently emphasized more significant rainfall, while the GFS is more progressive with less and deeper with the trough and cold air behind the system.
250 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019 Deep low pressure over eastern Iowa will continue drift slowly north this evening before moving east on Monday. Mixing early Monday will result in a breezy northwest wind through the afternoon with slightly warmer temperatures.
147 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019 Upper trough pushing across TX today extends from an upper Low moving into MN. As this trough moves east will go into brief ridging aloft.
The trough associated with yesterday's wet conditions has finally ejected onto the Plains and is progged to slowly meander across the Northern Plains towards the Lower Great Lakes today and tomorrow.
After sunset, the surge of cooler air should merge the two lines as it moves into the eastern fringes of the forecast area this evening.
248 PM MST Sun Dec 29 2019 Current analysis shows stacked low pressure nearly stalled out over southern Minnesota at the moment.
With ridging continuing to dominate today, mostly fair weather is expected. A perturbation in the flow on the leading edge of the ridge continues to favor some snowfall along and west of The Divide. This snowfall is expected to end during the evening hours, tonight, as the ridge axis moves overhead The Treasure State. Throughout the day on Monday, the ridge will weaken, and winds will become gusty along The Northern and Southern Rocky Mountain Front and across central Montana.
Mid level moisture wrapping around the back side of a large upper level low pressure system over the central CONUS is spreading light snow across KS late this afternoon. The breezy conditions will continue on Monday across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as the low pressure system moves into Great Lakes Region.
The highest wind gust will occur this afternoon into this evening mainly before midnight.
Additional snowfall amounts for tonight through Monday will average around 1 to 3 inches, though could see a little more through the Buffalo ridge area - with possibly up to around 4 inches possible.
This trend will continue through the remainder of the short term period as the region remains in the col between the area of low pressure dropping south along the west coast and another situated over the Great Lakes.
857 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019 A few minor changes were made to the tonight's temperatures, otherwise, looking forward for a cooler and dry night with clear skies and light winds.
As the Pacific Low begins to dive south and separate from the northern jet, we'll see low amplitude ridging begin to build in from the west. There will be gradual warming through midweek as the ridge shifts east-southeast over the next few days.
An area of low pressure will dive down the California coast tonight through Monday.
/issued 147 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019/ Upper trough pushing across TX today extends from an upper Low moving into MN. As this trough moves east will go into brief ridging aloft.
542 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019 A potent upper low pressure system produced widespread precipitation across our region over the weekend.
Current analysis shows stacked low pressure nearly stalled out over southern Minnesota at the moment.
Generally VFR conditions with southwest to northwest winds less than 15 kts to prevail across the forecast area through the TAF period as a cold front with drier air exits Arkansas to the east tonight.
301 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019 An Intense upper low was located over southern Minnesota this afternoon. By late tonight, a cloudy, cooler but dry period from late tonight through Monday. Lows tonight will drip to around or just below the freezing mark, with highs Monday only in the low to mid 40s, which is close to normals for late December.
The low itself stays along the coast and moves southward into Southern California by Monday morning.
/issued 250 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019/ Deep low pressure over eastern Iowa will continue drift slowly north this evening before moving east on Monday. Mixing early Monday will result in a breezy northwest wind through the afternoon with slightly warmer temperatures.
The cold front is now east of Nashville, but has not yet reached Crossville.
Low for tonight are expected to be in the single digits to the north and in the low to mid teens to the south.
559 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019 Cold front will continue to slide to the east across forecast area early this evening.
Discussion: Early afternoon satellite pix shows occluded cyclone across the upper midwest with dry-slot in place across central IA. Slightly higher amounts of upwards of 3 inches more feasible for areas closest to the MN stateline where better lift resides closer to the low.
However, scattered showers and isolated storms preceding approaching cold front will produce additional tempo reductions to at times MVFR through Monday.
457 PM MST Sun Dec 29 2019 00Z TAF CYCLE In the wake of an exiting storm system, the lower atmosphere is now much drier with VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Models depict the low VFR cloud deck around SAF, SKX and RTN evaporating this evening. However, high and mid clouds will increase in coverage from the west across western and southern areas tonight, then linger through Monday as a low pressure system off the southern CA coast sags southeastward along the Baja Peninsula.
527 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019 A cold front will push into Illinois this evening and combine with an upper-level disturbance to bring another round of rain to central and southeast Illinois tonight.
517 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019 An Intense upper low was located over southern Minnesota this afternoon. By late tonight, a cloudy, cooler but dry period from late tonight through Monday. Lows tonight will drip to around or just below the freezing mark, with highs Monday only in the low to mid 40s, which is close to normals for late December.
High pressure will keep VFR and light northerly winds intact through Monday. /Issued 325 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019/ The cold front moved through South Texas this morning with clearing skies and breezy northwesterly winds behind it.
This cloud cover, combined with a cooler airmass being ushered in due to a strong pressure gradient and gusty westerly winds will keep morning lows in the low 30s while limiting afternoon highs to the mid to upper 30s across central Missouri and low to mid 40s across the remainder of the area today.
A potent upper low pressure system produced widespread precipitation across our region over the weekend.
Mid level moisture wrapping around the back side of a large upper level low pressure system over the central CONUS is spreading light snow across KS late this afternoon.
Expect drier conditions through the rest of the afternoon in the wake of the cold front that passed through earlier today. The cold front has also ushered in breezy northerly winds with gusts up to 25kts, but the winds should decrease through the evening becoming light overnight. The clearer skies, lighter winds, and drier air will lead to a cooler night across the region with temperatures bottoming out in the upper 30s to low 40s. The cooler air sticks around during the day tomorrow with temperatures climbing into the low 60s, which combined with the clear skies will result in a pretty pleasant last Monday of the decade.
Lower valley locations have temperatures hovering right around freezing, so pockets of black ice along with other slick spots will be possible the remainder of this evening and overnight.
Tonight and Monday: A mature/occluded, deep-layer cyclone over southwest MN as of early afternoon will drift southeast overnight before reforming over the upper Great Lakes on Monday.
Although a bit windy, relatively tranquil conditions will dominate across western Kansas today and tonight as a closed off upper low in the Upper Midwest shifts eastward into the Great Lakes by late in the period. Calming winds and clear skies will allow temperatures to drop into the teens(F) to the lower 20s(F) for lows tonight.
300 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2019 A cold front will move through the forecast area this morning.
255 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2019 Gusty west/northwest will persist today on backside of upper low lifting northeast into the Great Lakes region.
319 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2019 Updated at 257 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2019 Circulation around deep low pressure over Michigan will bring gusty winds, low clouds, and chilly temperatures into the region today. Temperatures will be in the lower and middle 40s for most of the day. Low temperatures will be around the freezing mark with wind chills in the 20s.
313 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2019 A cold front will move through the forecast area this morning.
1116 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019 An Intense upper low was located over southern Minnesota this afternoon. By late tonight, a cloudy, cooler but dry period from late tonight through Monday. Lows tonight will drip to around or just below the freezing mark, with highs Monday only in the low to mid 40s, which is close to normals for late December.
Gusty westerly winds will be in place across much of the forecast area through roughly 10Z tonight as a cold front moves eastward into Tennessee.
High and mid clouds will increase in coverage from the west across western and southern areas tonight, then linger through Monday as a low pressure system off the southern CA coast sags southeastward along the Baja Peninsula.
1142 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019 Cold front will continue to slide to the east across forecast area early this evening.
1248 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2019 A cold front will move through the forecast area early Monday.
/issued 922 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019/ Rain has quickly cleared this evening behind the departing cold front. The highest accumulations are expected to fall over West Tennessee near the Tennessee River. The forecast period starts off with a deep upper low over the Great Lakes Region which circulates a dry polar airmass across the South. The Canadian and ECMWF have consistently emphasized more significant rainfall, while the GFS is more progressive with less and deeper with the trough and cold air behind the system.
Showers will be possible again today as a slug of moisture rotating westward along the southern periphery of the ridge over the eastern Atlantic pushes over the area. Winds become more southerly to even southwesterly during the day as a cold front approaches the area.
922 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019 Rain has quickly cleared this evening behind the departing cold front. The highest accumulations are expected to fall over West Tennessee near the Tennessee River. The forecast period starts off with a deep upper low over the Great Lakes Region which circulates a dry polar airmass across the South. The Canadian and ECMWF have consistently emphasized more significant rainfall, while the GFS is more progressive with less and deeper with the trough and cold air behind the system.
Between 18-00Z an approaching cold front will support scattered SHRA and isolated TSRA at all of the terminals and have handled with VCTS for now.
1030 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2019 Currently - An Atlantic high centered just southwest of Bermuda extends a ridge axis across South Florida and towards the Yucatan. Meanwhile, a fairly strong upper level ridge rises northwards across Florida and the eastern United States. A ribbon of increased low level moisture is riding northwestward around the ridge. Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to dominate Keys weather through the overnight period as the high gradually retreats further out into the Atlantic. A ridge axis across South Florida will maintain southeasterly breezes across Keys waters. Expect winds to be stronger over the warmer Hawk Channel and Florida Straits. The relatively cooler gulf and bay side waters should allow winds to remain gentle on those waters.
1142 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2019 A cold front will move through the forecast area early Monday.
Clouds associated with a cold front will quickly clear out from west to east.
Northwest winds will remain gusty through the night, which will help temperatures to remain warmer that they would be otherwise. snowfall associated with wraparound moisture on the backside of an upper level low pressure area in southern Minnesota will come to an end around sunset. Low temperatures range from the low to upper teens in far eastern Colorado to the upper teens to mid 20s east of the CO/KS border. It will remain windy with northwest winds gusting in the 25 to 35 mph range as we remain under the influence of a strong low pressure system near the Great Lakes. High temperatures are expected to reach the low to upper 30s. Any areas with snow cover may only reach the low 30s.
523 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2019 A cold front will move through the forecast area this morning.
As an upper trough continues to move east, high pressure will build over the region today. Light winds and radiational cooling tonight will again produce lows below freezing, mainly in the mid to upper 20s.
Cooler and drier air is gradually filtering in behind the cold front which pushed through our area last night and as of 4 AM CST extended southwestward across southwest GA, the central Florida Panhandle and out over the Gulf. Today's high temperatures will be more seasonable, topping out generally in the low 60s.
Behind the departing cold front, we should maintain a southwesterly flow at the surface, with a westerly flow at 850 mb. Tonight, clouds are expected to increase again as the closed low over the Great Lakes and the jet on its southern periphery drop southward.