Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Latest 12z models continue with a warm frontal push tonight into Wednesday morning across the area. Nevertheless, travelers are encouraged to take it slow and allow a little extra time overnight as any isolated precipitation that does occur may fall as freezing rain and/or sleet given expected thermal profiles. The night shift will have to closely monitor the conditions as they develop should freezing rain become more widespread than presently anticipated. Drier and warmer weather conditions are expected for Wednesday with highs reaching the 50s for most places.
Trailing showers along the outflow boundary could redevelop, and even along the cold front. However, have kept this PoP in the low chance range at this point. With lingering cloud cover, lows will stay on the mild side in the lower 60s despite the frontal passage.
In the warm, moist airmass with weak low level ascent ahead of an approaching weak cold front, MVFR-IFR vsbys and cigs are expected to develop again throughout the area in the early morning hours, but should dissipate by around 15Z. Low level high pressure remains in place over the northern Gulf waters, with a slow moving weak cold front to our north oriented east-west across TN, AR, and OK.
336 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017 At 3 pm, a cold front was slowly advancing south-southwest across the forecast area. Cooler air filling in from the north was resulting in a decent gradient in temperatures across the area, running from the low 90s in the south and southeast to the middle 70s across the north. The high so far at Lubbock has been 92 - one degree short of the record.
Not going too crazy with low temperatures this tonight despite the strong CAA and mostly clear skies because winds will remain elevated through the night, allowing some warmer temps to mix down. High pressure builds in tomorrow, resulting in cool, sunny conditions.
A strong low pressure system moving through late Wednesday into Wednesday night will bring a good chance for mainly light rainfall as well as significantly cooler temperatures. Isolated thunderstorms are possible mainly west of Phoenix Wednesday afternoon as a cold front moves across the area. A large upper trough remains positioned over the eastern Pacific, with afternoon water vapor imagery indicating the primary mid-level circulation center positioned near 42N 127W as of 21Z.
Otherwise, quiet weather will occur through 24 hours with upstream mid level ridging and Gulf high pressure the main synoptic features. Surface winds will once again become breezy later this morning into the afternoon due to high pressure and low pressure interaction. High temperatures today will be in upper 80s to lower 90s (except for the low to mid 80s near the coast) due to combination of abundant sunshine and a drier airmass in place.
Cooler conditions are expected north of this front across NRN AR due to precip and increased cloud cover. A cold front will drop south through this evening and overnight. Meanwhile, contd SWLY winds and plenty of sunshine wl result in another day of unseasonably warm temps with highs in the lower and mid 80s. Incrsg NELY winds behind the fnt wl usher much cooler air into AR later tngt and on Wed. Due to the shallow nature of the cooler airmass, expect a good amounts clouds on Wed with little in the way of rain chcs.
Chances are marginal with very dry air in the low levels fighting any forcing and saturation aloft.
/issued 1001 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017/ Area of high pressure will extend across the area today from the Gulf of Mexico eastward into the western Atlantic. Warm and dry conditions expected across the region, with the sea breeze keeping highs along the coast in the mid to upper 70s, while inland max temperatures will reach the low 80s. High pressure in place will maintain favorable boating conditions over the coastal waters today into tonight, with S/SE winds this morning becoming W/SW into the afternoon as the west coast sea breeze develops and moves inland.
The easterly to southeast lower tropospheric flow will be slow to yield to a warm front from the west. This will allow for overnight lows in the mid 30s across the higher terrain of the western Sandhills, southwest Nebraska and eastern Panhandle, but upper 20s will prevail across our northeastern zones. Then by afternoon, the upper ridge will build east and warm air advection will build across the High Plains, with south to southeast winds across the area in the afternoon. Highs will contrast from the low to mid 60s eastern panhandle and far southwest, to the upper 40s northeast.
Max temps aloft will be around 10 Celsius which means most of the precip over the lower terrain should be of the liquid variety. Temps will be near freezing for areas north of Forsyth and Miles City so cannot rule out a bit of freezing rain if we are able to generate enough rainfall out of these weak cells. Much warmer day on tap for Wednesday, with highs in the low 70s possible and dry conditions expected across most of the region. Wednesday night a more potent low pressure system moves into central Wyoming. Although the models keep temperatures near freezing, the qpf with this system should be enough to generate 6-10 inches of wet snow along the eastern slopes of the Bighorns.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 53 65 47 / 80 80 20 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 47 61 39 / 60 70 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 77 47 62 43 / 30 70 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 71 44 56 34 / 10 20 10 10.
Otherwise expect a mostly cloudy to cloudy sky with low temperatures in the low to mid 30s. Clouds expected to be of the high variety for most of the area. Currently have high temperatures ranging from the low to mid 50s across the east (McCook to Gove and points east) with low to mid 60s along and west of the CO/KS border.
342 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017 A strong cold front will sweep through tonight, bringing much colder temperatures on Wednesday. This jet will spread across the region late this afternoon and evening, driving a cold front across the forecast area. In the wake of the front, a brief window for lake moisture- driven snow showers could impact the I-80 corridor, and perhaps the ridges. Cold air is not expected to make it to the ridges in time to promote rapid snow growth, so any accumulation there should be trivial if any snow showers occur. Maxima on Wednesday will be about 15-20F below climatologically- normal values as very cold air lingers in the region amid building high pressure.
Cold front has already pushed southward along the lakeshore early this afternoon, with winds shifting to the northeast and becoming gusty. Quiet weather with cold temperatures are expected Wednesday, with high pressure passing by to the north.
High pressure sliding across the Great Lakes will supply us with cool temperatures and dry weather Wednesday and Wednesday night.
632 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017 An arctic cold front will push across the region tonight with scattered snow showers, though only minor accumulations are expected.
At the surface, a cold front (located approximately along I-44) will continue its southward movement tonight, bringing cooler air into the region. Clouds that are expected to form within the cooler airmass will further restrict daytime warning tomorrow, bringing highs down to roughly the seasonal average (for the only day this week).
Clouds will again increase on Wednesday night though as a strong nocturnal LLJ develops ahead of the potent Great Basin trough.
Ridging aloft will maintain dry and warm conditions across S TX today through Wed. Shallow patchy fog this morning will give way to mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and highs around a degree or so warmer than yesterday.
Weak short wave ridge will quickly move across the CWA this morning, followed by a another upper level disturbance this afternoon and evening. Despite the low CAPE, there will be modest elevated instability for isolated thunder along and west of I-25, similar to what occurred late yesterday. Showers will continue through late this evening across the high plains before exiting east with the disturbance. It will be breezy and cooler today, with high temperatures in the 40s and 50s.
332 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017 An arctic cold front will drop south across the area this evening and overnight. High pressure will move southeast from the Canadian Plains across the area Wednesday night.
138 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017 High pressure will keep VFR conditions with quite weather through the TAF period. /issued 343 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017/ Today-Wednesday: High pressure centered from the Gulf of Mexico across the Central Florida peninsula will continue to dominate the weather as we head into mid week.
Today and Tonight, An upper level trough across the upper Midwest will dig southeast across the Great Lakes States and amplify. The low-level CAA by northeast surface winds will bring a drier and cooler airmass southwest across the CWA. There may be some weak isentropic lift at the 295-300K level for some light rain-showers and if the precip can make it through the dry low-levels then wet-bulb cooling may cause a bit of snow to mix in at the low-levels. Wednesday marks the start of the transition as the frontal boundary keeps highs only near 50 but then retreats northeastward as the next upper longwave trof approaches the southwestern states.
330 PM PDT Tue Mar 21 2017 A strong cold front will bring precipitation today as it moves through the region. Cooler than normal temperatures and unsettled conditions will prevail through Wednesday in a cooler and unstable airmass.
This will be nearly coincident with increasing 1-3km subsidence however as the H85/H7 ridge, anti-cyclonic flow and resultant cold advection strengthens into IA starting at 18z. With the aforementioned short wave already into IA by this time, the high res model depiction of quickly weakening precip makes sense.
Tomorrow we will be situated on the far eastern edge of a broad ridge centered over the plains and on the Southern edge of high pressure centered over the Great Lakes.
/Issued 541 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017/ Although high pressure will continue to dominate the area for the next couple of days cooler air associated with an upper level trough over the Great Lakes will briefly squeak into the area from the northeast on Wednesday. With a strong inversion above this cooler air low level saturation will be possible. Due to the strength of the inversion and the low level winds expected to shift more southerly late in the day, it's possible that the stratus deck/drizzle could linger for most of the day, with a few breaks in the late afternoon to early evening.
215 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017 A cold front crosses tonight.
Cloud cover will increase from west to east as the day progresses and as warmer air advects into the region on the western side of the 850 hPa ridge.
1201 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017 A surface cold front has sagged south across the region into northern Arkansas early this morning. The 850mb cold front is lagging behind the surface front and will spread south across the area today. With the front moving south through the area temperatures will range from the around 60 across central Missouri to the lower 70s across southern Missouri tonight. Cooler conditions will occur on Wednesday as highs in the 40s and 50s occur.
310 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017 Another warm day with aftn highs reaching the lower to mid 80s, and a few upper 80s possible. Introducing isold pops mainly north of I-30 with boundary from late tonight thru Wed aftn before expanding ridge completely dissipates boundary.
High pressure will build in on Wednesday and bring a cold day to central Indiana. Temperatures will then warm up late week into the weekend, but along with the warmer temperatures will come frequent chances for rain with multiple systems moving through. Overnight, high pressure will begin to build into the area from the north. The high will bring another shot of cold air, so below freezing temperatures are expected across the entire area.
Have therefore hoisted a Freeze Warning with at least a couple of hours of temperatures at or below 30 degrees anticipated as skies eventually clear underneath the southern periphery of high pressure sliding across the Great Lakes. Elsewhere, temperatures look to remain in the low 30s to near 40 degrees along the Tennessee border. Surface ridging will traverse toward Lake Erie Wednesday, keeping cool and dry conditions in place as temperatures remain below normal in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
A warm front will enter western North Dakota Wednesday afternoon with highs in the 50s expected along and west of US Highway 85 with 30s ahead of the front across the James River Valley through the Turtle Mountains.
144 PM PDT Tue Mar 21 2017 A series of weather systems will bring cooler and more unsettled weather to the region this week. Another line of moderate precipitation looks to move through early Wednesday morning as upper level trough moves overhead.
At least through this evening, expect upslope fog mixed with drizzle or freezing drizzle (depending on ground temperatures) to continue, especially on the SD plains and eastern slopes of the Black Hills. This will cause gusty winds over northeast WY and the higher Black Hills as well as the frontal boundary to move northeast as a warm front. Wednesday, upper ridge builds into the CWA with much warmer temperatures and precipitation ending early. Wednesday night, upper low pulls into the southwest US with impulse laden southwest flow across the CWA which will support a chance of mainly rain, possibly mixed with snow over the higher elevations.
1145 AM MDT Tue Mar 21 2017 Upper ridge will rebuild across the region today resulting in dry conditions. The ridge axis shifts slightly east on Wednesday resulting in dry conditions.
209 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017 A cold front crosses tonight.
231 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017 An upper level ridge is over the southcentral part of the country with northeast flow over the area. An upper level trough is beginning to move over the West Coast with an upper trough impacting the Great Lakes area. Temperatures today will be well above normal with highs expected to be a little warmer than yesterday. There is a chance of afternoon thunderstorms across the higher terrain and surrounding area. A cold front will push into the northern areas of the CWA this evening. Upper ridging will continue over the region on Wednesday but temperatures are expected to be a little cooler, especially across the northern CWA.
A warm front will push through the region tonight and Wednesday morning. Models continue to show very little QPF, however, forecast soundings show that if precipitation does occur it will be in the form of a wintry mix - some of which could be freezing rain. A warm front is forecast to push northeast later today. TEC Canadian high pressure has brought cooler temperatures over Northeast Montana. An upper ridge builds over Montana today and it will bring a warm front northeast into the state. This warm front will move east across the forecast area tonight and Wednesday morning. As surface temperatures cool and atmosphere warms aloft, sleet and freezing rain will be possible. The mixed precipitation moves to the east with the warm front Wednesday morning. Wednesday's highs will be 15 to 25 degrees warmer than today.
A return to mainly dry weather is expected Wednesday and Wednesday night as high pressure translates southeastward from southern Canada across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley.
304 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017 High pressure continues to build into the Midwest, but a persistent slow wave of light precipitation with the mid level winds. A lack of cloud cover throughout most of the night will assist in providing effective radiational cooling and temperatures will drop below the freezing mark. with clouds slowly moving into the region later in the afternoon as a quick wave rounds over the mid level ridge to the west and dives into the mid Mississippi Valley. Northeasterly winds, however, will keep the temperatures cooler tomorrow. A progressive upper level pattern will be in store for the Midwest the next few days resulting in a return to warmer temperatures.
An upper level trough currently located off the California coast will dive southward and emerge from the 4-corners region as a tightly wound upper level low. A slow moving low pressure system will track eastward with this wave, and widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop along the warm front and in the warm sector. Looking ahead, another trough will follow quickly on its heels, but this is in a split flow regime so continued with the blended guidance for pops and temperatures.
355 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017 A cold front crosses tonight.
VFR conditions expected through the period with light west winds shifting from the northeast around 06Z behind a weak cold front. A weak cold front will move southward Tuesday evening and stall across the southern Permian Basin by Wednesday morning. Front will bring some cooler temperatures for Wednesday, but not much in the way of rain.
A cold front extends across the region. This system will have to develop a cold pool cooler than the air on the north side of the front to really pose an enhanced severe threat. 09Z Surface analysis places a cold front from Western Kentucky back through Southern Missouri and Oklahoma.
Based on current temps in the single digits in the far northwestern fcst area did go along with slightly cooler temps today in that region with upper teens for highs. Area under sfc-925 mb cold advection through most of the day as high pressure drops south from into southern Manitoba by days end.
Temperatures will hover near freezing for the duration of the precipitation, with wet bulbing over to snowfall likely in south central SD where the precipitation chances are greatest. Weak wave passing through upper level ridging will provide the next chance for precipitation across the area.
/Issued 422 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017/ An upper ridge over the Panhandles today through Wednesday will finally push off to the east by late Wednesday as a closed upper low over southern California and the southwestern states approaches from the west. A cold front which has pushed into the southern portions of the Texas Panhandle will continue to track slowly south out of the forecast area today. A secondary surge of much cooler air will push across the Panhandles tonight.
643 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017 A cold front approaching from the north will slowly cross the forecast area overnight. Very warm temperatures this afternoon will be followed by cooler temperatures behind the front. The high-resolution models have trended slower with the timing. The cold front will be moving south of the area Wednesday morning with high pressure centered over the western Great Lakes region building in behind it.
313 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017 The cold front snaked from far northwest AR-northeast OK-southwest OK this afternoon. Widespread clouds will keep Wednesday temps much cooler than what we've experienced the past few days.
Mid level ridging will lie upstream, with high pressure over the Gulf, supporting a typical moderate south southeast wind across the area.
At 18Z, a cold front extended from near KSWO to KOKC to KHBR. In addition, lower clouds (probably resulting in MVFR conditions) are expected to develop in the cooler airmass later today and especially tonight/tomorrow. /issued 654 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017/ A cold front, currently located across northern Oklahoma, will push slowly southward today into this evening. /issued 414 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017/ For today, a cold front will continue a slow southward push across central and southern Oklahoma and western north Texas. Overall, a cooler day is in store for northern Oklahoma, while southern Oklahoma and north Texas will need help from the AC. Although a mid level ridge axis will be over the southern Plains Wednesday and Wednesday night, clouds and an easterly wind will result in near average temperatures for most of Oklahoma.
The weak cold front across TN, AR, and OK this morning has not budged south this morning.
106 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017 An arctic cold front will drop south across the area late today and early tonight. High pressure will move southeast from the Canadian Plains across the area Wednesday night.
122 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017 High pressure to the northwest continues to nudge in with dry weather today. Temperatures will feel cooler tonight as they drop towards 20 degrees.
Look for temps to around 80 most lctns a bit cooler at the beaches.
145 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017 A strong cold front will sweep through tonight, bringing much colder temperatures on Wednesday. Lingering morning light rain in the ridges will erode ahead of a cold-frontal surge oozing swd across the region this morning. Do not expect much widespread snow-shower activity in the cold-air advection late tonight/Wednesday morning, but scattered snow showers in the I-80 corridor are possible, with very-low probabilities of a snow shower in the higher elevations once the heart of the cold air reaches the ridges.
Backdoor cold front helping to keep stratus locked in for much of the day in our north/northeast and kept us cooler up there. The HRRR seems to be doing a decent job with the cooler temperatures up there for this afternoon and early evening. For Wednesday, Upper level ridging will help ensure a dry day, with seasonable highs in the lower 50s.
A modicum of CAPE of 500 j/kg across S Ky, coincident with the low 50 dew points and CAPE gradient. Strong llvl CAA very evident along with some mid and high moisture streaming clouds in nw flow, so will be going on low side of guidance in the 40s, except near Lake Cumberland in the low 50s. Much warmer temps Thu-Mon. Dry weather week ahead with high zonal flow and amplifying ridge moving thru on Fri.
Concur with the upper pattern which maintains an upper ridge over the Region while an upper disturbance moves EWD towards TX during the period.
This is due to a trough moving through from Ontario. Winds will lighten this afternoon as high pressure relaxes the pressure gradient. A cold front boundary will continue to move southeast this morning, entrenching the Northland under a colder air mass today. 925 mb temperatures will drop between 5 and 15 degrees C below zero across the Northland this morning, which will lead to high temperatures today ranging from the lower 20s along the International Border into the lower 30s over our southern tier of counties. This area of high pressure, along with low-level ridging, should keep the region quiet through the day Wednesday as it advances across eastern Lake Superior Wednesday afternoon.
1231 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017 For the ArkLaTex, a backdoor cold front is on approach over AR sinking SWward on E/NE low level flow. This will pile-in the low level moisture with VLIFR/IFR expected until midday on Wed.
Another disturbance will move through tonight but this will more like a warm front with the arctic air retreating east. It showed sleet was more likely than freezing rain so the forecast includes sleet and snow.
325 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017 An arctic cold front will push across the region tonight with scattered snow showers, though only minor accumulations are expected.
temps though were a bit cooler at the beaches as the salt water temp is hovering around 70 degrees. This pattern will continue through the rest of the week as high pressure in the gulf and the ridge aloft shunts the colder air off to the east.
This ridge will be set up across MN by 06Z Wednesday, while a sizable 500mb ridge of high pressure builds in from MT and sets up across the northern and central plains by mid morning Wednesday.
626 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017 An arctic cold front will drop south across the area this evening and overnight. High pressure will move southeast from the Canadian Plains across the area Wednesday night.
An upper trough over the eastern Pacific, and off the U.
356 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017 (Tonight and Wednesday) A cold front will move into the Big Country late this afternoon or early this evening, while a dry line approaches our western counties. Heating this afternoon may be enough to break the cap, allowing for the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms along the dryline and cold front.