Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The low appears to be near the TN/NC border and the cold front is draped through north GA, central AL and southern MS. The cold front is on track to move through the region this evening. Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop as the cold front approaches.
WE HAVE ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL 17 UTC GIVEN OBSERVED 1/4SM VISIBILITIES AT BOTH CARRINGTON AND JAMESTOWN AT MID MORNING ALONG WITH WEB CAMERAS SHOWING THE LOW VISIBILITIES ALONG INTERSTATE 94 AT JAMESTOWN. COOL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ARE FORECAST AREA WIDE AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
958 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL. THE NORMAL COOLER SPOTS IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WILL STILL FALL INTO AT LEAST THE MID 40S WITH LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
815 PM PDT TUE OCT 20 2015 RIDGETOP OBSERVATIONS NEAR TAHOE AND MAMMOTH SHOWING NE WINDS BLOWING 50+ MPH THIS EVENING. CS LOW PRESSURE OVER ARIZONA WILL KEEP NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN PLACE THIS EVENING, WITH SOME CLOUDS LINGERING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SIERRA. LOCALLY GUSTY RIDGE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE SIERRA.
755 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
759 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 OVERALL FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHT RIDGING OVER US. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 44 74 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 42 72 45 74 / 0 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 41 73 44 74 / 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 38 72 40 74 / 0 0 0 0.
Have stayed closer to the warmer GFS MOS for lows.
828 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING SOUTH AND EAST OF A FRONT THAT STRETCH ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO MINNESOTA AND AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WORKING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND START TO MOVE UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.
1048 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
943 PM PDT TUE OCT 20 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER AND NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN WEDNESDAY AS A WEAKENING PACIFIC DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS HIGH AMPLITUDE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH A COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING NW SD. UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO SPLIT. AND CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT. TOP OF WESTERN UPPER RIDGE FLOPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW APPROACHES THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.
This will usher a cold front through the plains region into northeast Kansas Wednesday morning to late afternoon. Also the weaker winds in the low levels will prohibit the strong warm advection and mixing of the EML seen today. Currently have low 70s at Concordia to the lower 80s for Emporia and Topeka.
AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE LOW CONTINUES EAST AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FROM WED NGT INTO THU NGT.
1238 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MARCH EASTWARD AND SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT OR VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF EFFECT ON THE LOWS. A LITTLE BIT OF VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY TRY TO SNEAK UP CLOSE TO OUR FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT LEFT MEASURABLE RAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS WE ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WHICH BROUGHT US THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BUT STILL A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH 60S PRESENT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHER PLAINS.
628 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 118 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE SITTING ALONG THE SPINE OF THE LOWER APPALACHIANS HAD SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH EAST TO PRODUCE A S-SELY FLOW ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
742 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
1013 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. IT SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION PLUS SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ADVECTING INTO SOUTH GEORGIA FROM THE ATLANTIC MAY GET INTO THE FORECAST AREA. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. DESPITE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE IT SHOULD STILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY SO BELIEVE FOG WILL BE LIMITED AND THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY LOW PROBABILITIES FROM THE SREF GUIDANCE PLUS THE NAM AND GFS MOS.
CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL STEADILY LIFT THE LOW CEILINGS. WATER VAPOR LOOPING SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN BAJA AND A TROPICAL FEED OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO AND TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PLACE AN IMPORTANT PART IN THE UPCOMING RAIN EVENT. TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE SEASONAL WITH SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AS THE ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN SEASHORE PROVIDES FOR NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AIR TO CURVE INLAND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW LEVEL WIND PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE WESTERN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST.
721 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. IT SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION PLUS SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ADVECTING INTO SOUTH GEORGIA FROM THE ATLANTIC MAY GET INTO THE FORECAST AREA. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. DESPITE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE IT SHOULD STILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY SO BELIEVE FOG WILL BE LIMITED AND THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY LOW PROBABILITIES FROM THE SREF GUIDANCE PLUS THE NAM AND GFS MOS.
THE STATE WILL REMAIN IN BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEP POSITIVELY TILTED 300 MB TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE WESTERN ROCKIES. A WEAK PV ANOMALY ROTATING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH ATTM WILL CREST THE HIGH PLAINS RIDGE AXIS LATE TONIGHT AND HELP PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH AND WEST.
COOL AND STABLE AIR MASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MILDER AIR INTO EAST KENTUCKY WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY A TOUCH WARMER INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FEATURE ANOTHER RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT WITH THE COLDER VALLEYS INTO THE MID 30S AND RIDGES STAYING IN THE MID 40S. ONLY SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH VALLEYS AROUND 40 AND RIDGES AROUND 50. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AND A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CRUISING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. RIDGING IS HANGING ON ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER THERE ARE MORE TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE REMNANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH RIDES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THE LATEST ECMWF IS QUICKER WITH PROGRESSING THIS ENERGY THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
DRIER AIR HAS MOVED ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROF THAT IS NOW DEPARTING THE STATE TO THE EAST. SUNNY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. OTRWS CONTD MILD SWRLY LL FLW TO CONT WITHIN LL THERMAL TROUGH W/WARMER MOS BLENDS PREFERRED THROUGHOUT.
AND THE COLD FRONT SENT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID DAY TOMORROW. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE FRONT /WESTERN MN AND CENTRAL MN/ TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH. THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE WELL NORTH IN CANADA. SO ANTICIPATING MOST OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER TO BE CONFINED NORTH OF THIS AREA.
Despite the higher PoPs, the overall rainfall should be minimal due to the very dry low-level airmass across central Illinois. 19z/2pm surface analysis shows a 1030mb high centered over the southeast CONUS and a cold front extending from the Great Lakes into the Northern Plains. Due to increasing cloud cover and a continued southerly wind of 10- 15 mph, overnight low temperatures will be considerably warmer than in recent nights. Breezy southwest winds will continue Wednesday as high pressure remains off the central Atlantic coastline and low pressure moves eastward through the northern Great Lakes area.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY A POSITIVELY TILTED SPLITTING TROUGH IS PUSHING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY HAS EJECTED A COLD FRONT THAT HAS NOW REACHED RIVERTON DURING THE PAST HOUR AND IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH CASPER. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE IN THE NORTHERN BIG HORN BASIN EARLIER TODAY HAS LIFTED AND APPEARS TO BE BREAKING UP AS THIS AREA BECOMES REPLACED WITH A HIGHER DECK OF RAIN PRODUCING CLOUDINESS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW CONTINUES TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY SOUTHWEST UTAH THIS EVENING. SEVERAL FEATURES CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW. AS THE LOW HEADS CLOSER TO CENTRAL ARIZONA LATER TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN UTAH TOMORROW. BUT WITH THE LOW CONTINUING TO TRACK EAST.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S. /29 THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.
859 PM PDT TUE OCT 20 2015 WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR NORCAL THIS WEEK. High pressure will remain over the region for the next day. The far north end of the valley may keep enough north wind overnight to keep temperatures near 60 degrees but elsewhere expect them to drop into the lower to mid 50s tonight. Temperatures will warm into the lower to mid 80s again for Wednesday with a lighter north wind for the valley expected.
646 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 19z/2pm surface analysis shows a 1030mb high centered over the southeast CONUS and a cold front extending from the Great Lakes into the Northern Plains. Due to increasing cloud cover and a continued southerly wind of 10- 15 mph, overnight low temperatures will be considerably warmer than in recent nights. Breezy southwest winds will continue Wednesday as high pressure remains off the central Atlantic coastline and low pressure moves eastward through the northern Great Lakes area.
EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. OTRWS CONTD MILD SWRLY LL FLW TO CONT WITHIN LL THERMAL TROUGH W/WARMER MOS BLENDS PREFERRED THROUGHOUT.
747 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DRIER AIR HAS MOVED ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROF THAT IS NOW DEPARTING THE STATE TO THE EAST. SUNNY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA CLEAR THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING.
922 PM MST TUE OCT 20 2015 A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND. WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED AND SPINNING OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING. 00Z UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION PRETTY MUCH OVER YUMA COUNTY AT THIS TIME. MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE LOW/COLD CORE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA OVERNIGHT. AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID-DAY WEDNESDAY EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE QUICKLY BY THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST INTO NEW MEXICO. INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/WEST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FOR THIS EVENING.
956 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT, AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
LOOK FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS RETURN FLOW BRINGS GULF AIR INTO THE MID STATE.
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN/MID ATLANTIC BASIN IN CONTROL OF THE OVERALL WX PATTERN. TEMPS THUS FAR ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF COASTAL VA/NC CONTROLS THE GENERAL WEATHER SITUATION. RSB /ISSUED 118 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE SITTING ALONG THE SPINE OF THE LOWER APPALACHIANS HAD SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH EAST TO PRODUCE A S-SELY FLOW ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
THIS ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SEPARATES. AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS EXIT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA-WIDE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY.
ANY SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF THE LOW AND PRODUCING VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP.
1142 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 /06Z TAFS/ MVFR CIGs should return tonight as moisture from the gulf flows into the area ahead of an approaching potent upper level low pressure system. KSJT and KSOA have the highest chance of seeing strong to possible severe storms with large hail and damaging winds. Winds will remain mainly from the southeast, and lows tomorrow morning will again be mainly in the lower 60s.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM ABOUT KENOSHA. ITS GETTING SOME HELP FROM THE COOLER LAKE TEMPS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WED MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DESPITE THE TRAILING CDFNT/TROF MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
1033 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 AN UPPER-LEVEL COMPOSITE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING REVEALS A STRONG RIDGE SUPPORTING AN EXPANSIVE CONTINENTAL LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. WITH SUSTAINED WINDS RANGING FROM 25-30 KNOTS OVER THE LOWER STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 20-25 KNOTS ACROSS FLORIDA BAY.
1135 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 UPPER LEVEL BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS THIS AFTERNOON. CLOSED LOW SPINNING ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH A TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS DIVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. FIRST WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THEN AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 15 HOURS. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE IN AND HIGHS REBOUND TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS BAJA WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION.
THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING A SLIGHT SURGE IN THE LOW LEVEL EAST FLOW.
/ISSUED 342 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015/ MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS RIDGING WSWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL KEEP CENTRAL ALABAMA IN A DRY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH (AT LEAST) THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE INCREASED HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE BUILD UP ALSO SUPPORTS THE NOTION OF TEMPERATURES (BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS) INCHING UP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WELL. THE BIG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES IS FORECAST TO SWING EASTWARD.
716 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT, AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
/ISSUED 359 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015/ MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US, TO THE NORTH OF FLORIDA. THIS HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK. THESE HIGHS WILL KEEP A NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. AT 500 MB, THERE WILL BE A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO, KEEPING THE FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST MOST OF THE WEEK AS WELL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL PROVIDE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
608 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 UPPER LEVEL BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS THIS AFTERNOON. CLOSED LOW SPINNING ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH A TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS DIVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. FIRST WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THEN AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 15 HOURS. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE IN AND HIGHS REBOUND TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS BAJA WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION.
Upper ridging over the Lower Mississippi Valley will amplify slightly as a closed low advances into the Four Corners area, so we'll see temps tick upward just slightly. Max temp forecast for Wednesday leans toward the warmer GFS MOS given the slight increase in heights. By Wednesday night, the return flow will be better established as a cold front edges into central Indiana, so the current forecast lows in the mid 50s may even be on the cool side.
HUSTON LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH IDAHO FALLS AND ISLAND PARK THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENDED MENTION OF THE PRECIPITATION INTO THE FIRST FEW HOURS THIS EVENING WHILE THE TROUGH AND LOW CLOUD COVER CLEARS THE AREA.
1001 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA-WIDE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WARM WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
1057 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
557 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ALONG WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ALOFT. THERE WILL BE A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06-12Z TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.
729 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING.
A LLJ HAS ALREADY HELPED TO DEVELOP MVFR CEILINGS ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF I-35. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL STEADILY LIFT THE LOW CEILINGS.
1223 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
01 UTC surface analysis shows high pressure across Eastern South Carolina with lighter northeasterly flow in place across the region this evening. Airmass has continued to slowly moisten today with surface dewpoints back into the lower 60s across portions of the area and into the mid 50s elsewhere.
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ALONG WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ALOFT. THERE WILL BE A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06-12Z TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A WESTERN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM COMPONENTS. AS WELL AS A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. MAINLY IN THE HIGH PLAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST. ALLOWING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE REGION.
740 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
Winds will remain mainly from the southeast, and lows tomorrow morning will again be mainly in the lower 60s.
1055 AM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WE WILL BE DRY FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN FROM THE PLAINS BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP TOMORROW. CIGS AROUND 3KFT SHOULD MOVE IN AROUND 6-8Z SE TO NW DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. LN /ISSUED 303 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016/ AT 300 AM SKIES WERE CLR WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S AND LIGHT WINDS. THEN BY THE AFTN SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW/MID 70S. BY TONIGHT MOISTURE/CLOUDS BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF/CDFNT. SUNDAY WILL BE THE BEST DAY FOR PCPN AS THE UPPER TROF/CDFNT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
433 AM PDT SAT MAR 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. QUIET NIGHT WEATHERWISE OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR AS AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE WEST COAST REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE RIDGE WILL START TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT INLAND TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL BRING SUNSHINE AND DRIER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTH WITH CLEARING SKIES. COOL HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
THOUGH WE REMAIN UNDER A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WITH AMPLE MOISTURE WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH HEATING ALONG WITH OTHER OUTFLOWS TO BREAK MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL CAP AND SOME STORMS WILL BE STRONG AND MAY PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
931 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016 AFTER A COOL START WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS SUNNY SKIES TODAY WILL HELP WARM TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR 50 ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE 12Z BISMARCK SOUNDING SHOWS VERY DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE LOWER LAYERS WITH JUST SOME MID/HIGH MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS THERE ARE SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.
927 AM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THEN RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY.
733 AM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEASTERN US THROUGH THE DAY. ON SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST AND REACH LAKE ERIE SUNDAY EVENING.
Cold front is currently located near Sioux City, IA southwestward to Holdrege, NE and then down across western KS. This wave will be right on the heels of the previous wave and associated cold front, and looks to move through the region Sunday.
TEMPS WILL MODERATE RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AS PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE COMES INLAND.