Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A strong cold front has begun to move through the Northern Rockies this morning, that has brought an increase in southwesterly winds. Later this evening, as the trough of lower pressure deepens over the region, a strong upper-level jet stream will traverse over the Pacific NW. Locations with the highest probability with seeing damaging winds, will be SW Montana in the Butte/Blackfoot Region.
1018 AM MDT Wed May 18 2022 Updated forecast for the latest cold frontal and precipitation timing this evening. Cold front looks to arrive over northwest zones mid evening, into Billings around midnight and pushes through southeast Montana before sunrise. For anyone traveling into the high country, snow levels drop from 10000 feet this afternoon down to 5500 feet by tomorrow morning behind the front. By the afternoon some showers ahead of the a broad trough moving in from the Pacific Northwest will start to impact the western mountains. The area with the highest gust potential in Wheatland County. Showers will continue through the day and behind the front, temperatures will be much cooler, with highs only in the 50s versus the 70s today.
/Issued 641 AM CDT Wed May 18 2022/ For the 12Z TAFs, a cold front has moved through the terminal sites with gusty north winds in its wake.
An area of thunderstorms is expected to develop on the high plains and move into northwest Oklahoma late this evening.
Latest satellite imagery showing a well defined low center and cold front near Seattle this morning. Cold front remain on track to reach the our northern zones by 06z tonight then the Idaho/Nevada/Utah border by 18z Thursday. Of note is the higher probabilities for high winds in the Camas Prairie as seen in the latest HRRR and NBM 4. Temperatures are still expected to be around 20 degrees cooler. Mainly VFR, except periods of MVFR in light rain showers over Baker County Oregon and the West Central Idaho Mountains this afternoon and tonight as a cold front moves through.
317 PM MDT Wed May 18 2022 Cold front is currently moving through western Montana, with scattered light shower activity developing along and ahead of it as it moves eastward toward our vicinity. Stronger wind ingredients shift south of the area Thursday night with a Canadian cold front turning winds northerly.
A robust upper level low pressure system and attendant cold front will move into the forecast area from the north tomorrow. This is expected to be a mainly dry frontal passage bringing strong winds, blowing dust and haze, and cooler temperatures. A large upper level low will dive to the southeast tomorrow.
Northwesterly flow aloft will allow convection that develops over the higher terrain of southern/southeastern Colorado and northeastern New Mexico by 21Z to 23Z today to move east and south into the northwestern Panhandles by 00Z Thursday. Hot and dry conditions expected Thursday due to compressional heating ahead of a cold front with record or near record high temperatures possible.
850mb temperatures warm about 12F to 15F across the area compared to Wednesday (today) supporting highs in the lower to upper 90s. For Thursday night a strong cold front blows through from the north. Low temperatures are expected to range from the upper 30s to lower 40s in far eastern Colorado to the lower to upper 40s east of the CO/KS border.
With airmass becoming more capped to sfc-based development an no significant low level jet support, POPs through the evening will remain on the low side.
/issued Issued by National Weather Service Tallahassee FL/ Ridge axis along the Gulf Coast will help to keep temperatures warm and convection limited today and Thursday. Despite rather juicy low-levels early this afternoon, with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s along and south of I-10, much drier air is expected to mix down through the afternoon. This, along with large-scale subsidence associated with the ridge should keep afternoon storms very limited in coverage, especially the further inland you go. The ridge will keep the weather warm and dry again for the afternoon, with temperatures rising into the lower to mid 90s. An upper-level ridge will traverse eastward as an upper-level trough will generally hold steady to the west.
704 PM EDT Wed May 18 2022 Last line of seabreeze and outflow boundary thunderstorms along the Lake Wales Ridge early this evening to weaken shortly with strong westerly upper winds shearing the tops as seen in satellite imagery.
However, the high based convection will be very conducive to strong downdrafts, even with showers, so we'll monitor this potential into the evening.
A modest cooling trend Thursday as a dry cold front moves into Nevada creating breezy north winds across the region.
/EC/ Tonight and Thursday: Warmer than normal and dry through the period. This moisture increase was already contributing to a weak cu field as seen on visible satellite that was likely being suppressed by the mid level ridge across the region from the southwest. Ridging surface and aloft was allowing for enough insolation for temperatures to climb into the middle 90s. The warmer than normal temperatures will continue tonight with morning lows only bottoming out in the upper 60d to lower 70s.
After a slight inland cool down tomorrow, warmer temperatures are expected to return by the weekend. A weak cold front is bringing some clouds to mainly Del Norte county this afternoon. Behind the front on Thursday high pressure starts to build into area and north winds will pick up across the area. Thursday night the valleys and protected areas will see winds diminish, but the ridges and exposed areas will continue to see gusty winds. With the cooler airmass moving in some frost is possible in the colder spots of interior Humboldt and Trinity counties if the valleys manage to decouple. Freezing temperatures are possible, but at this point it doesn't look likely enough for a freeze watch.
632 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022 (Tonight) Weak cold front / remnant outflow boundary extends across NE OK and near the MO/NW AR border region where a corridor of Cu has recently developed.
Cold front passed through eastern Oregon this afternoon and into southwest Idaho this evening. In addition, much colder air will come in behind tonight's cold front and under Thursday's upper trough. Surface winds: W-NW 10-20 kt with gusts 20-30 kt and up to 40 kt in the Lower Snake River Plain, decreasing to W-NW 5-15 kt after 20/12Z.
/issued 245 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022/ An upper level closed low over the Baja of California will steadily move east across northern old Mexico tonight and tomorrow. H85 temperatures today will be in the upper 20's(C), and even warmer tomorrow, probably at or just over 30C for tomorrow.
612 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022 (Tonight) High pressure remains anchored over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, with southerly flow persisting across the region. Despite high clouds from storms to our north, temps have risen into the upper 80s and will climb a few more degrees this afternoon, with highs expected to reach into the lower 90s across portions of the area.
Elevated winds are in place this afternoon as ahead of a deepening U/L trough across the Pacific NW. Afternoon satellite imagery shows increasing clouds across western and northern Idaho associated with an approaching potent late- Spring cold front.
456 PM MDT Wed May 18 2022 Most recent surface analysis shows low pressure sitting over eastern ND, with a weak cold front stretching from northeastern SD through southwestern SD. Lows tonight remain mild, in the 40s and low 50s, ahead of a stronger cold front that will be moving through the region Thursday.
This evening, a weak cold front stretches from roughly near Rantoul southwest through Springfield. Subsidence behind this feature has resulted in partial clearing, which has helped boost afternoon temps into the lower to middle 70s across the western half of the KILX CWA. Clouds/showers will fade away toward midnight as a bubble of high pressure builds into the area. Given the sunshine and increasing southerly winds, high temperatures will climb into the lower to middle 80s. A weak warm front is progged to lift northward toward the area late in the day, triggering a few showers and thunderstorms.
Warmer today. However, drying in the wake of a departing short wave should erode the clouds by late morning leading to some sun during the afternoon and warmer temperatures. A cold front will trail southwest of the low across the Missouri Valley. The ECMWF/GFS move the low toward James Bay by Friday night. Ahead of the low, a warm front will pass over the cwa tonight. More importantly, we'll be in a very juicy environment with sfc dewpoints in the 60s and a cold front to the west. Both the GFS and ECMWF don't exactly push the cold front through the cwa Friday night, likely due to the lack of an upper level push.
Winds ahead of the low and diurnal heating should help the boundary layer mix to around 725 mb by late afternoon (per HRRR & RAP forecast soundings). A strong cold front should come sweeping south out of South Dakota this evening.
The airmass in the wake of the anticipated MCV on Thu is expected to be stable with warmer conditions anticipated. A broad positively tilted mid/upper trough extending from the Northern Plains across the Rockies on Friday will move over the Northern Plains this weekend. Ahead of this trough, a cold front will arrive over the Central Plains on late Thu night into early Fri. This front will usher in much cooler air with highs only reaching the lower 70s across central KS on Fri while far southeast KS remains mild with highs in the mid 80s.
At the surface, weak and dry high pressure over the area this evening will push into MN by daybreak Thursday. At 12Z Thursday low pressure will be over southwestern Saskatchewan, with an additional low over western SD. The highest instability (higher chance of thunderstorms) remains over our easter/southeastern counties during the mid afternoon and evening hours, before shifting into southeast into MN.
141 AM EDT Thu May 19 2022 High pressure will prevail through Friday. The deep-layered ridge will briefly rebuild on Friday, yielding hot and dry weather with highs in the low to mid 90s.
Similar temperatures expected Friday with upper ridging in place, although rising heights and an intrusion of drier air will limit any convection from developing.
203 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022 Mostly clear skies and noticeably warmer at forecast time. In fact, we're about 15 degrees warmer than this time last night.
Temperatures will be well above normal this afternoon as gusty downslope southwesterlies draw much warmer air into the region with H85 temperatures ranging from the upper 20s(C) in central Kansas to a little above 30C in extreme southwest Kansas. Low temperatures may be wide ranging tonight as a cold front begins to push into western Kansas at the end of the period. The lower 60s(F) remain possible in south central Kansas. Windy but relatively dry conditions are expected Friday as a broad scale upper level trough drops southeast across the Intermountain West, sending a cold front through western Kansas early Friday morning.
1209 AM EDT Thu May 19 2022 High pressure will cross the region overnight then exit to the east Thursday. Weak low pressure will approach Thursday afternoon and cross south of the area Thursday evening. High pressure will return on Friday.
At the surface, a warm front to the south will begin its trek north.
Currently, the upper level flow pattern remains mostly zonal across region in the wake of the upper trough that brought storms and flooding to the area last night.
Trends in radar data suggest that it's bowing toward the east-northeast so the highest PoPs/thunder/severe wind probs will be focused to the west and north of Tulsa, though chances are certainly not zero for severe winds in Tulsa.
Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the nern Gulf ridging wnwwd across the forecast area. Water vapor imagery shows mid/upper-level ridge axis now basically overhead. After lows tonight generally in the lower 70s (warmer near the immediate coast), highs tomorrow are again progged to reach the lower/mid 90s (cooler near the coast). Thursday night looks like a repeat of tonight, but a degree or two warmer.
A ridge of high pressure from the Caribbean will extend across the Keys and Southern Florida today. This will bring a surge of deep tropical moisture moisture from the Caribbean waters and will inundate the lower boundary over the next several days. The moist southerly flow coupled with the abundance of moisture in the lower troposphere and speed convergence will yield showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms Today through Friday night.
We should remain mostly dry across the Mid South today ans temperature climb into the low to mid 90s.
While weak ridging will dominate aloft tonight, by tomorrow, the upper level flow will start to become more southwest. The area will remain on the western side of the Atlantic ridge. Highs tomorrow will be around to a touch cooler then today (particularly across the Florida counties) with highs in the mid 80s near the coast to mid 90s inland. With this pattern, increased cloud coverage and scattered showers and thunderstorms, highs will also trend downward into the upper 80s to mid 90s, a few degrees cooler then today and tomorrow.
/issued 245 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022/ An upper level closed low over the Baja of California will steadily move east across northern old Mexico tonight and tomorrow. H85 temperatures today will be in the upper 20's(C), and even warmer tomorrow, probably at or just over 30C for tomorrow. Upper flow out of the southwest will remain Friday with a mostly positively tilted upper trough from the central Rockies into eastern Canada.
926 PM MDT Wed May 18 2022 Most recent surface analysis shows low pressure sitting over eastern ND, with a weak cold front stretching from northeastern SD through southwestern SD. Lows tonight remain mild, in the 40s and low 50s, ahead of a stronger cold front that will be moving through the region Thursday. Precipitation amounts are expected to be rather light, so any snow amounts will be minimal in most areas, though up to a couple of inches are possible across the higher elevations of the northern Black Hills by late Friday morning. Below normal temperatures are expected moving into the weekend, with highs Fri/Sat only reaching into the 40s and 50s, and lows to near or below freezing.
Today should be another hot and breezy day with highs topping out in the mid 90s for most with several sites across the Big Country reaching the low 100s. /Issued 317 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022/ /Thursday Night Onward/ Another hot day is expected on Friday with high temperatures ranging from the low 90s across our northeast to near 100 across western North Texas.
1113 PM EDT Wed May 18 2022 High pressure will cross the region overnight then exit to the east Thursday. Weak low pressure will approach Thursday afternoon and cross south of the area Thursday evening. High pressure will return on Friday.
Late tonight into Friday, a broad upper level trough will dig from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. This will force a cold front towards the area. The better chance for storms will come Friday night as another nocturnal LLJ develops and overrides the cold front.
102 AM EDT Thu May 19 2022 High pressure maintains an influence on the area leading to possibly record tying or breaking heat today and Friday. Strong to severe storms possible this evening as an upper low passes overhead.
Subsidence under the ridge will limit precipitation potential today, but an isolated shower or t'storm could pop this afternoon roughly from Ocala to Bunnell southward where deeper moisture (PWAT near 1. A weak cold front will drift into south GA and begin to stall into tonight and latest model guidance continues to keep any associated rainfall with this feature north of the Altamaha River basin. Dry conditions will prevail tonight with mild, muggy temps in the upper 60s and low 70s with inland shallow fog potential and low stratus most favored west of the Highway 301 corridor and toward I-75 after midnight.
443 AM EDT Thu May 19 2022 One last hot and dry day today, then moisture surges north over the area for Friday as high pressure lifts north.
These areas look to have the highest threat for any severe storms over the next few hours, with the most significant tornado threat mainly N Plateau near the KY border. Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 69 93 71 92 / 10 0 0 0 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 67 94 69 92 / 40 20 0 0 30 Oak Ridge, TN 88 65 92 68 91 / 50 20 0 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 63 92 64 90 / 50 50 10 0 30.
The main mid/upper trough is digging into Montana with the closed center over Alberta/Saskatchewan. The upper low center is shown to deepen further north over the International Border, and this shifts the axis of stronger deformation on the NW Quad of the upper low out of our area. Tonight-Friday: Upper low will continue to transition east and cyclonic flow and steep mid level lapse rates will continue to support lighter shower activity through these periods (though the contribution of 24hr QPF totals is lower comparatively). Much cooler temperatures follow the associated cold front and may locations could struggle to warm out of the lower 40s over parts of northeast ND and far northwest MN on Friday (almost 20-25F below seasonal averages). A deep and broad upper level trof extends across the western two thirds of the country.
239 AM MDT Thu May 19 2022 A cold front currently moving through eastern Montana will bring some showers in the SE part of the forecast area this morning. Stacked surface and upper low will move along the MT/SK border today and then continue east along the ND/SK/MB border tonight. Northeast Montana will see strong west winds and cooler temperatures today. As the low moves to the east this afternoon and tonight, wrap around moisture on the back side of the low moves into the forecast area which will bring some rain showers that will mix with snow showers tonight as temperatures fall to near freezing. There is good chance for accumulating snow in the higher elevation of the Little Rockies tonight which may require a Winter Weather Advisory. An upper trough lingers over the area through the weekend.
1235 AM EDT Thu May 19 2022 High pressure will prevail through Friday. The deep-layered ridge will briefly rebuild on Friday, yielding hot and dry weather with highs in the low to mid 90s.
Model soundings are also showing dry air in the low levels, with the 12Z GFS sounding at KIWD for 00Z tonight even failing to reach saturation. Upper air pattern consists of an elongated 500 mb trough stretching sw-ne from the Great Basin to the northern plains 12z Fri. The trough axis moves slowly into the upper Great Lakes Sat night. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge on the east coast and a broad trough across the central and western U. This trough then moves into the upper Great Lakes Wed night into Thu. Winds of mainly 20 kts or less are expected until Friday, when a cold front could increase winds from the SW and W in the central lake to 20 to 25 kts.
325 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022 Overall, high pressure remains in control of the weather across the region through the period. Quiet and hot conditions will persist, with highs again climbing into the low and middle 90s this afternoon and lows only falling to around 70 tonight. While Friday doesn't look favorable for hitting record high temperatures, still wouldn't be a surprise if a few spots do over achieve and reach record high temps especially those pockets of areas who may see more sun and are naturally warmer. As we head into the weekend, an approaching cold front along with increased southerly flow will help return rain and diurnal storm chances to the region this weekend.
Winds will taper off in the lower terrain aft sunset Thursday but remain strong in the high terrain all night with increasing mt wave activity.
Highs today will hit the low to mid 90s. Highs on Friday will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, a few degrees cooler than previous days due to added cloud cover.
307 AM EDT Thu May 19 2022 Scattered showers will end this morning as high pressure builds in.
Northwesterly flow aloft will allow convection that develops over the higher terrain of southern/southeastern Colorado and northeastern New Mexico by 21Z to 23Z today to move east and south into the northwestern Panhandles by 00Z Thursday. Hot and dry conditions expected Thursday due to compressional heating ahead of a cold front with record or near record high temperatures possible. Strong cold front forecast to push south and east across the Panhandles by 09Z to 12Z Friday.
The main east-west storm track will prevail to our north, from southern Missouri to the lower Ohio River valley. Upper level ridging will push the storm track further north on Friday, in advance of a positively-tilted longwave trof over the Rockies.
Warmer & more muggy conditions expected on Thursday. * Cold front is expected to move into the region Thursday night into Friday. Cold front is expected to work through the region Thursday night into Friday.
229 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022 Thunderstorm outflow from the MCS currently across northwestern Oklahoma is pushing into our northern zones and is bringing gusty winds in excess of 30 knots along with cooler temps. Today should be noticeably hotter for most areas across the FA as thicknesses increase across the region amid weak upper ridging to near zonal flow. The increase in temps for today will also be aided by southwesterly surface winds as a result of a surface lee trough. The amplitude of the mean troughing aloft and the length of the meridional waveguide will reinforce the baroclinic gradient along the front, with significant CAA trailing behind as the northerly fetch extends into Alberta and Manitoba.
405 AM EDT Thu May 19 2022 Weak ridging in place should keep conditions mostly dry across much of the U. Upper air pattern consists of an elongated 500 mb trough stretching sw-ne from the Great Basin to the northern plains 12z Fri. The trough axis moves slowly into the upper Great Lakes Sat night. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge on the east coast and a broad trough across the central and western U. This trough then moves into the upper Great Lakes Wed night into Thu. Winds of mainly 20 kts or less are expected until Friday, when a cold front could increase winds from the SW and W in the central lake to 20 to 25 kts.
A cold front will be nosing into this moisture field around max heating.
Otherwise notably warmer today as low level thermal ridge builds ahead of developing frontal zone across the cntrl-nrn plains. Thereafter slowing trend to ewd cold frontal progression continues in most model solutions and expect Friday will hold dry as stout eml caps off downstream warm sector here Fri aftn. Kept slight chc pop far nw as a hedge amidst background lake breeze and local moisture pooling however subsidence within lingering upper ridge looks to limit sfc destabilization elsewhere.
The persistent theta-E advection today and strong heating with temperatures warming into the lower to middle 90s have me a bit more concerned that a rogue storm or two could develop as an MCV resulting from the MCS now entering OK arrives this afternoon across the lower OH and TN valley which could trigger storms.
Showers will mostly be confined to the higher terrain across the Cascade crest and in the Idaho Panhandle resulting in VFR conditions continuing into Thursday.
Nevertheless, another day of unseasonably warm temperatures is in store with temperatures in the low 90s for most of the area, and into the 100s across portions of western north Texas.
A dry cold front pushes through the state from the north today, bringing widespread strong and gusty winds with it. The front should push out of our area later tonight and into tomorrow morning, leaving some residual breezy winds and cooler temperatures.
Current temperatures are already in the low 80s at many locations with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s areawide. We should remain mostly dry across the Mid South today ans temperature climb into the low to mid 90s.