Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The difference between now and yesterday is that the low previously over W TX yesterday is now along the LA coast. Patches of light rain showers will continue through the morning as the low continues eastward. However, SE of the I-85 corridor some shower activity could continue through this evening before finally pulling out of the area as it will be closer to the low. Clouds are expected to linger behind the exit of the showers today, but they should start to decrease from NW to SE tonight as the low pulls further away. For tonight, as clouds begin to clear out behind the rain, we should see cooler readings ranging from the lower 40s NW to the mid 50s SE. On Sunday, with sunshine at times, look for highs some 3-7 degrees warmer than today.
416 AM MDT Sat Apr 17 2021 While yesterday's system moves into the MS River Valley, another trough over the western CONUS will slowly push east towards the Tri- State area today. Current guidance has the trough axis moving across the area during the overnight hours. While we wait for this upper- level trough to move in, the winds aloft are expected to become zonal to the west with winds from the surface to the mid-levels keeps us cool with NW flow. At the surface, a lee trough is expected to move across the Plains today providing potential for rain showers during the afternoon and ending around sunset. Sunday, the upper level trough will continue to move across the Plains as a ridge builds and moves onto the West Coast.
Northwest flow will wane this morning, and the colder air aloft will drift eastward as weak ridging crosses the region.
Some clouds will be found across northeast IA and southern WI associated with a low pressure area over MO. Highs will be slightly cooler today as cold advection occurred overnight with a cool push from the northeast. Westerly winds aloft and near the surface will advect warmer air into the forecast area Sunday.
Mother nature also gave us a break yesterday thanks to the faster progression of the front and overall cloudy pattern limiting thunderstorm activity with the cold front. Yup, if you are someone (like me) who likes cooler weather, soak up today! Afternoon highs are forecast to be in the 60s across much of the area. The next upper level trough will begin approaching from the Southwest U.
Moisture levels are very dry in the boundary layer Sunday ahead of a sharp cold front. Temperatures could also be higher than expected with readings conservatively in the low 60s. If the front is slower, these temperatures could easily reach the mid to upper 60s before the cold front passes. The cold front will continue to dive south through the area early Sunday evening with a band of precipitation following it Sunday night.
Today and tonight, an upper level trough will push southeast across the Central Plains while another trough slowly pushes south across the Four Corners region. With the mostly cloudy to overcast skies today and the cooler air continuing to move in, expect cool highs in the mid to upper 50s. With the strong cold air advection coming to a halt, overnight lows will not be quite as cool as Saturday night in the low to mid 40s.
Expect lows to dip back down into the lower to middle 30s on the Caprock with middle to upper 30s common over the Rolling Plains. The best chance for near/sub-freezing conditions will favor the southwest Texas Panhandle and northwest South Plains, though locations further south could be close if clouds are slower to redevelop than currently expected.
Most locations are into the low to mid 60s as of early afternoon. Highs were nudged closer to the 75th percentile of NBM puts us back into the low to mid 60s, but would not be surprised if that is still too conservative.
137 PM EDT Sat Apr 17 2021 VFR flying conditions will continue to prevail through the TAF period with broad and diffuse weak high pressure in place over the central Great Lakes. The lack of meaningful flow will keep the cooler airmass over the region with cloud cover governing the high temperatures today. This would put temperatures this afternoon in the low to mid 50s. Slightly warmer temperatures for Sunday as dry westerly flow will support more sun while mixing depths increase to around 2km (per NAM) during the afternoon.
Into tonight, the speed of this trough and depending how strong the flow is from the northwest behind the trough will be a big player in whether we clear out tonight. However, only the southwest counties have been included into the growing season and the trough remains in the south long enough to keep cloud cover in place and thus reduce the frost threat. Behind this wave, weak ridging will return but with a progressive pattern with little amplitude, the lack of good baroclinity will keep a cool surge of air out of the area.
Due to the light prevailing southwesterly flow, well- defined streamers are spilling off the island chain into the bayside and gulfside waters of the Lower and Middle Keys. A dome of high pressure centered east of the Bahamas will continue to largely dictate our weather through Sunday, with near-nil rain chances and above normal temperatures.
High Pressure will continue to settle in across Texas this evening.
/Today through Sunday Night/ The cooler than average pattern will continue through the short term period as upper troughing in the lee of West Coast and Gulf of Alaska upper ridging promotes cool/cold surges down through the heart of the nation. However, we do anticipate a gradual drying in the lower troposphere to slowly eradicate a good deal of the low clouds as we go through the short term. More sunshine and related better insolation tomorrow should allow highs 5 to 10 degrees warmer than tonight, but still below average.
The moisture appears deep enough, and with cooler temperatures in and atop the PBL, to support a few showers across northern Oklahoma this afternoon and evening ahead of incoming short wave trough. (Today and tonight) A ridge of cool high pressure will remain over Oklahoma through the short term period. By sunrise on Sunday, temperatures will drop to near freezing in the northwest, quite possibly dipping below freezing for a few hours.
SPC maintains a marginal risk for severe weather south of I-10 this afternoon and evening, where an isolated thunderstorm could produce a damaging wind gust, w/ the highest probability in the Southeast FL Big Bend.
Highs Sunday will be fairly uniform in the lower to mid 60s. With the strong cold air advection coming to a halt, overnight lows will not be quite as cool as Saturday night in the low to mid 40s.
Tonight and Sunday Fairly quiet conditions will persist through the evening hours as high pressure continues to influence the region through the evening hours. Currently have low temperatures forecast to be in the upper 20s to middle 30s, trending towards the cooler side of guidance. Tomorrow, another day of elevated fire weather conditions is expected, as dewpoints drop during the day and temperatures push towards the low 60s in some areas. Some improvement on these conditions will be possible by Sunday evening however, as a cold front bring cloud cover back into the region ahead of some rain showers.
235 PM MDT Sat Apr 17 2021 Early afternoon WV satellite imagery showed a upper level trough from the Upper Midwest into CA.
There has been more cloud cover in eastern Nebraska, with spotty areas of showers or light rain and slightly cooler temperatures. The northwest half of the forecast area could see lows tonight at or below freezing. Models are in good agreement showing a vort max dropping out of the Canada into the upper Midwest with an associated cold front inducing precip across the Dakotas/MN Sunday afternoon.
Warmer air will move into the region ahead of the approaching cold front on Sunday. Highs are expected to reach the 50s and lower 60s by mid-afternoon, before the cold front plunges through the region late afternoon and evening.
Short term forecast challenges involve pcpn chances ending this morning and the incoming strong cold front late in the weekend and the changes it poses to our weather conditions. This activity is in association with an upper trough/vort max stretching from southwest to northeast across the region. A high pressure ridge will drift over the region later today through the overnight into Sunday morning. The aforementioned strong cold front will be approaching our area Sunday morning coming southward across ND. Overall, the mid-level pattern over the CONUS during the period should feature mean troffing over the central/eastern part of the country.
304 PM CDT Sat Apr 17 2021 Upper level trough and cold pocket aloft, and steep low level lapse rates, has allowed scattered showers to develop in our southern counties this afternoon. Sunday: Another weak upper level trough arrives in our southern counties with another chance of scattered showers in the afternoon. A cold front moving through late Sunday night will bring unseasonably cold temperatures for early to mid week.
225 PM CDT Sat Apr 17 2021 (Issued 225 PM CDT Sat Apr 17 2021) Tonight through Sunday night: Quiet conditions this period with low level thermal trough and surface ridging building in through Sunday Morning. Flow becomes westerly ahead of low pressure passing by to our north. Surface cold front and mid level speed max affects the area Sunday night.
A 500 hpa trof will continue to deepen tonight and transition into a cutoff low over AZ/NM tomorrow. Temperatures will be cold enough overnight for some snow to mix in over the higher terrain above 5000 ft.
This will help push afternoon high temperatures into the lower 60s everywhere except south of the I-70 corridor where clouds will be thicker/more consistent.
Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid 40s across the region with decent radiational cooling, and areas of patchy fog will be possible.
Then a strong cold front will push through the region and bring a narrow band of light rain showers, transitioning to a few snow showers. Ahead of this front, a thermal ridge and mostly clear skies will set the stage for warm temperatures, breezy conditions, and low humidity.
Upper level ridge along the coast, with northeast flow aloft over the forecast area is leading to a nice, sunny, spring day.
Skies will remain mostly cloudy with highs expected to reach the low to mid 60s.
239 PM CDT Sat Apr 17 2021 A seasonably strong cold front will move across the region through Sunday morning. A notable increase in winds from the northwest will denote the cold front along with a greater than 40 percent chance for rain showers along and near the front. Temperatures may reach into the 50s in the far southern Valley ahead of the front Sunday, but the majority of tomorrow will be noted by cooler temps behind the cold front.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): A cold front that passed through the CWA early this morning has left rain chances and cooler temperatures in its wake. Periods of rain with a few isolated thunderstorms will continue through the short term, thanks in part to a developing coastal trough. Cooler than average temperatures will be a mainstay through the weekend courtesy of the aforementioned front as we see lows tonight in the 50s across much of the region with 60s right along the coast. Sunday temperatures will only top out in the mid to upper 60s with low 70s out west and Sunday night lows will fall into the mid 50s across the northern Ranchlands to the low 60s to the south and east.
Late morning water vapor satellite imagery shows a compact upper level trough in far western Nebraska digging southward towards our area, and this feature has been responsible for the mostly cloudy skies across southwest Kansas this morning. Later tonight, as the influence of the upper level trough departs southwest Kansas, skies will clear out and winds will drop to near calm. During the day Sunday, temperatures will quickly rebound through the morning under mostly clear skies and northwest winds around 5-15 mph, and afternoon highs are expected to reach the low to mid 60s. Warmer highs are forecast for Sunday in the 60s with similar moderate northerly surface winds.
Temperatures are in the mid to upper 50s with a couple of locations touching the lower 60s over portions of north Mississippi. Nonetheless, expect a mostly cloudy day with highs in the low to mid 60s by this afternoon. A weakening mid level trough is pushing through the mid Mississippi Valley this morning. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 50s with light north winds. The mid level trough will continue to weaken and push east. There will still be a quite a bit low level moisture left around so clouds will prevail most of the day with perhaps a few breaks by late afternoon with highs in the lower to mid 60s. Should see a sunny start then increasing clouds as a another mid level trough swings through the area.
Upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern with a warming trend and mostly clear skies into Sunday. Temperatures today will be several degrees warmer than yesterday, with portions of the Basin and adjacent valleys seeing upper 70s to low 80s; the other lowland locations can expect to see afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s.
High pressure remains in control of the weather today and will through the remainder of the weekend with clear and unseasonably warm weather for all areas inland from the coast.
356 PM EDT Sat Apr 17 2021 Fairly quiet weekend is underway with clouds being the primary forecast challenge along with low temperatures flirting with the freezing mark. Lower MI currently sits in between several larger scale features with weak mid level ridge sliding across the region today. Strong zonal southern stream of the jet is laid out across the southern half of the conus while a stacked low pressure system drift northeastward along the Atlantic coast. Northern stream trough is holding well to the north over dipping into northern Ontario today.
Expect the general trend for conditions to become VFR but KHRO and KBPK will hold onto the lower ceilings longer than the other TAF sites. Today Through Sunday Night As of 09Z, the bulk of rainfall has moved east of the area with redevelopment occurring across eastern OK, far northwestern AR, and the southern half of MO in close proximity to a slow moving disturbance embedded within a larger area of mid/upper troughing. Water vapor imagery captures this well and places the center of mid/upper troughing over northwestern MO this morning with dry slotting over much of AR. QPF will remain on the low side and thunder is not anticipated. Tonight, cooler air will filter into the region as surface ridging tries to nose in from the west and lows will fall into the upper 30s to upper 40s.
Looking at latest observations, temperatures across most of the forecast area range from around 38 degrees to 42 degrees keeping temperatures above freezing and thus precipitation mode will remain rain, however there could be convective showers that have graupel.
With light northwest winds, low tonight will be a few degrees below normal in the lower 40s. Models show another more pronounced upper level wave moving over the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys on Sunday, accompanied by a weak surface trof. With similar conditions expected Sunday, went a little below the model blends for highs on Sunday and went with readings in the lower 60s. Lows Sunday night will again be in the lower 40s. Weak high pressure will be sliding across the southeast U.
Today will continue to be a sunny, dry day across the Northern Rockies as the region remains under the influence of high pressure. High pressure will begin to break down and turn cloudier overnight tonight with the approach of a Canadian âback door cold frontâ (a cold front which moves south out of Alberta and then pushes west across the spine of the Continental Divide).
This lower cloud deck is lifting and will transition to widespread VFR this afternoon and evening. This will keep cloud cover across our region so trended temperatures toward the cooler side of guidance which keeps most of the area in the 50's. Clouds may clear out for a brief period tonight which could help temperatures drop quickly however it appears that additional cloud cover should move in towards daybreak Sunday which may keep temperatures slightly warmer. Regardless, near freezing temperatures will be possible for portions of the south central and southwestern Texas Panhandle as well as the northwestern South Plains.
Weak inverted ridging across the region tonight and tomorrow will bring continued tranquil conditions.
1129 AM MDT Sat Apr 17 2021 While yesterday's system moves into the MS River Valley, another trough over the western CONUS will slowly push east towards the Tri- State area today. Current guidance has the trough axis moving across the area during the overnight hours. While we wait for this upper- level trough to move in, the winds aloft are expected to become zonal to the west with winds from the surface to the mid-levels keeps us cool with NW flow. At the surface, a lee trough is expected to move across the Plains today providing potential for rain showers during the afternoon and ending around sunset. Sunday, the upper level trough will continue to move across the Plains as a ridge builds and moves onto the West Coast.
314 PM EDT Sat Apr 17 2021 An upper level trough of low pressure over the eastern U.
329 PM CDT Sat Apr 17 2021 The weak weather system that brought clouds and sprinkles to the area today will slowly move southward tonight, causing skies to clear and temperatures to fall near freezing by sunrise. Temperatures rise by about 10 degrees compared to Saturday, with highs in the low to mid 60s.
233 PM CDT Sat Apr 17 2021 Mild through this evening, then colder with north winds Sunday along with rain or snow arriving with a cold front. After a quiet and mild Saturday across the Northern Plains, a cold front is expected to drop south across the region Sunday morning. Breezy northerly winds and cooler temperatures will also accompany the front as highs in the 30s north to 40s south are expected, though in the south the warmest temperatures may be in the morning.
249 PM MDT Sat Apr 17 2021 At the beginning of the short term period, the CWA sees a westerly flow as a positively tilted upper air trough resides over the western CONUS. During Saturday night, the trough's axis passes over the CWA turning the flow more north-northwesterly. Rest of the day temperatures look to range from the lower 40s to lower 50s. Saturday night lows expect to be between the lower and upper 20s. Another upper air trough beginning its descent from Canada associated with an upper air low over the Hudson Bay in the evening hours with its base making it to the northern Plains area overnight.
The extensive cloud cover and continued low level cold air advection will make for a chilly afternoon with highs ranging from the upper 50s in the west to the lower and middle 60s elsewhere.
Early morning discussion: An upper ridge will move through Montana today with warm and dry weather. Highs will be in the lower to mid 60s in most areas. An upper trough drops south tonight and Sunday across the Canadian Prairies. This will bring a cold front through NE Montana Sunday morning with enough moisture for some rain and snow depending on the temperatures. Highs on Sunday will most likely be in the morning around the time the cold front moves through with either steady of falling temperatures the remainder of the day. In the higher elevations of the Little Rocky Mountains near Zortman, temperatures will be cold enough for accumulating snow with 2 to 4 inches possible especially Sunday afternoon and evening with upslope winds from the north and NE.
933 AM MDT Sat Apr 17 2021 It will remain unsettled today as a weak upper level trough passes over the region. This off and on again activity continue into this evening, but the focus should start to shift more to the southern and western portions of the forecast area this afternoon and evening, with drier air moving into the region behind the trough axis. An upper trough is currently stretched from Hudson Bay, crossing northern Colorado and down into the Great Basin. This trough will sink south today to decrease the weak lift it brought over the area overnight. The weather will be mild and dry in northeast Colorado on Sunday under subsidence and weak ridging aloft.
307 PM CDT Sat Apr 17 2021 Weak high pressure is currently situated over the region, and fair weather cumulus clouds have developed over all but the far eastern part of the area. The high will remain dominant tonight, and expect the cumulus to dissipate with the loss of daytime heating this evening. High temperatures on Sunday will range from the upper 40s north to the lower 60s south, with lows Sunday night in the mid 20s. Models are well calibrated to a long wave trough influencing the central and northeast CONUS through the middle of the week.
The current upper level pattern is dictated by zonal flow across the Lower Mississippi Valley, with a large cutoff low off the New England Coast. The next 6 days look mostly dry with cooler than normal temperatures. The rest of the area will remain dry and cool with highs in the low to mid 60s once again.
307 PM EDT Sat Apr 17 2021 An upper level trough of low pressure over the eastern U.
Low temperatures will drop into the lower 40s. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the lower 40s, while highs on Sunday top out in the lower to middle 60s.
On Sunday, a mix of sun and clouds will allow temps to be a few degrees warmer than today. Although compact, this cold upper level low could produce a few rumbles of thunder across our northwest counties and Metro Nashville late Sunday afternoon and early evening.
415 PM EDT Sat Apr 17 2021 19z sfc analysis shows weak low pressure over eastern Kentucky with light winds and some sprinkles in the south along with a few light rain showers north. They all depict a weak trough moving through the Ohio Valley tonight into Sunday morning with some unconsolidated energy drifting by and minimal height falls. The next trough, upstream, is better resolved in the models and a tad stronger than the current one.
A continued moist zonal flow pattern aloft prevails across the north central Gulf region this afternoon, while a cold front has shifted well south into the Gulf of Mexico. The cloud cover and widespread rain coverage has kept temperatures cool in the wake of the frontal boundary today, so we lowered forecast highs down into the lower to mid 60s over southern portions of the region this afternoon. Lows tonight will be cooler, with readings ranging from around 50 to the mid 50s northwest of the I-65 corridor, and in the mid to upper 50s over southern and eastern portions of the forecast area. Highs Sunday should trend a little warmer in the lower to mid 70s over most areas.
Skies will likely remain mostly cloudy through the day which will keep temperatures on the cooler side. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 46 70 47 72 48 / 0 10 10 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 67 45 69 45 / 10 10 10 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 43 67 44 69 45 / 10 10 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 42 63 40 67 42 / 20 20 20 10 10.
1112 AM MDT Sat Apr 17 2021 Anchored western NOAM ridge will continue to support long trajectory N-S flow over central NOAM. Another potent trough will slide down the front of the ridge, supporting a strong cold front into the region Sunday, with accumulating snow and a period of below normal temps. This will allow for warmer temps the next 2 days, with mainly dry weather. Cold front will move rapidly south Sun with the northern third not expected to be as warm, esp with increasing clouds. Post frontal precip will then spread south, per the cold front aloft, with increasing LSA, aided by the right rear entrance of a jet streak.
At the surface, lower pressure was noted east of the southern Appalachians, while high pressure encompasses much of the plains.