Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Southwesterly flow has persisted in the low and mid levels, as the TN Valley remains on the western periphery of a subtropical ridge. Meanwhile, disturbances continue to rotate around the ridge, aiding in the development of scattered showers. Temperatures as of 9 pm have dropped into the lower to mid 70s across the TN Valley, but with southerly flow at the surface, temperatures should level off over the next hour or so and be more steady through the remainder of the overnight. Thus, went with likely rain chances for the daytimes of Fri/Sat, mainly from daytime heating and timing of the higher moisture/instability amounts, and the upper support. The more clouds than sun obviously will make for a slightly cooler than average high temperatures, which should only rise into the low/mid 80s Fri/Sat.
/issued 330 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017/ The highest rainfall totals this afternoon have occurred across three separate hot spots. The most widespread impacts appear to be street flooding although a few reports were received of water approaching or entering homes and businesses in Sulphur and Carencro Convection has become more scattered this afternoon as the highest atmospheric moisture is shunted off to the northeast along with the departing upper trough. High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft associated with a westward developing Bermuda high will build into the region Saturday suppressing precipitation and simultaneously increasing temperatures.
More of the aforementioned same headed into the weekend with temperatures nearing 90 or in the lower 90s each day with some pop up afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible.
308 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop this afternoon into this evening as a cold front moves into the area. Chances for showers/storms will increase this afternoon as this low level front returns north and another convectively aided disturbance/MCV approaches in perturbed/cyclonic wsw flow aloft.
457 AM MDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Low amplitude upper trough is extending across the central CONUS this morning with the main axis slowly crossing eastern WY though SD into MN. Upper ridging will build in for the weekend with warm air advection returning.
A swath of deep layer moisture continued to blanket the SE region early this morning, trapped between a trough axis west of the region and the Bermuda ridge axis extending across the Florida peninsula. Through sunrise, expect showers will begin to pop along the Gulf Coast within Apalachee Bay, as well as along the local Atlantic coast near a weak and diffuse coastal trough axis. Locally heavy rainfall will continue to be the primary convective concern today as upper level temperatures warm in response to the ridge across the Fl peninsula strengthening across the state. Temperatures today will trend warmer than previous days as heights rise due to the strengthening ridge across the Florida peninsula despite partly to mostly cloudy skies.
225 AM PDT Fri Jun 30 2017 High pressure off the west coast will gradually build inland through today, keeping dry conditions over the region. Flattened zonal flow begins to amplify this weekend as ridging builds over the Southwest United States.
Temperatures will remain seasonably warm with lows Friday morning in the lower 70s. By Friday night, a cold front will be moving into southern Missouri. By Saturday, the cold front will be inching closer to the region so there will be a better chance of thunderstorms over southern sections of the forecast area. With more clouds and rain in the area, temperatures will be a little cooler with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
336 AM PDT Fri Jun 30 2017 A weak trough of low pressure moving into Southern California will bring slight cooling and slight deepening of the marine layer for this weekend with areas of night and morning coastal low clouds and fog extending into portions of the inland valleys. strengthening high pressure over the central and southern Rockies will bring a warming trend with high temperatures around 10 degrees above average for inland areas by next Friday.
Cold front was on a line from Minot to Baker Montana and pushing south and east. Cold front moving through western North Dakota this afternoon will be the focus for increasing thunderstorms across west into central North Dakota this afternoon and evening.
A handful of high resolution models are hinting that storms train along this trough and therefore pose a flash flood threat. Some areas received 2 to 4 inches last night and this morning, with the highest amounts in north central KS. The lowest rainfall that occurred was portions of east central KS so these locations can take a decent round of rain. Upper trough axis is expected to move through northeast Kansas Friday night. High pressure will build into eastern Kansas early Saturday morning ushering in drier air.
150 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Warmer and more humid southwest flow through Saturday. Cold front approaches Saturday and becomes stationary just north of the area through mid week. As such, the highest pops were kept over the mountain counties. Approaching cold front with upper level wave rotating in along the base of the 500mb trough brings showers and storms in early Friday night, and another wave aloft kicking the front through the CWA and mountains on Saturday.
Sat looks to be dry and seasonal, as weak ridging moves across the plains. A cold front will clear the area late tonight and through the morning hours on Fri with breezy northeast winds prevailing in it's wake.
331 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Northwest flow regime settling over the region will usher in a cooler airmass, knocking a few degrees off of recent afternoon highs. Lows are expected in the low to mid 50s. This will bring warmer temperatures with highs around 80 east of I-29 to upper 80s over south central SD.
Temperatures will be cooler today behind the trof and with continued low level stability. Warmer and mainly dry weather is on the way for the coming week.
536 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through Saturday night until the passage of a cold front. The upper trough should advance across the OH Valley/Great Lakes region Saturday and Saturday night as it drives a cold front across the area, with likely POPs maintained.
347 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Dry air to the west associated with high pressure is moving east, however NAM BUFKIT soundings suggest there may be enough residual humidity in eastern South Dakota ahead of a weak 500mb wave to support isolated to scattered weak convection. High pressure starts out overhead and moves southeast tonight.
Digging trof over the Central Plains continues to push sewd, and an associated MCS over nrn OK/sern KS is ongoing as a result. Convection to continue as the trof/cold front digs into the srn Plains by late tonight, which will bring increasing PoPs to our region. Greatest chances for rain will be along I-20 and nwd, as the srn extent of the trof/front look to be limited by the upper ridge axis over NM/nrn Mexico.
With plenty of tropical moisture in place, it will feel hot with heat indices likely reaching into the lower 100s across many areas as well, especially south. The short term period will continue to feature the Bermuda high becoming reestablished both at the surface and with upper-level ridging aloft.
308 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017 A mid level trough remains stretched from the Central Gulf Coast northeastward into the Southeast early this morning. Storm coverage should increase tonight as the mid/upper level troughing pushes into the region. Storms, or remaining convective outflow should push into north Mississippi by early Saturday morning with a weak cold front lagging behind across northwest portions of the area. An upper level low will cut off over the Middle Mississippi Valley by mid week and slowly migrate east southeast through the end of the week.
343 AM MDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Upper level trough will be swinging across the divide this morning and re-enforcing the cooler northwest flow. Cooler temperatures and lighter winds will ease the critical fire weather conditions of the past several days. The pattern shift is a result of the upper ridge rebuilding over the Rockies as another trough arrives to the Left Coast tomorrow afternoon. The western trough will be advancing to the east Saturday night but also being pushed northward by the expansion of the subtropical high over the Western US/Mexico Border. Models suggest moisture slowly being entrained into the ridge which may allow weak convection to form on the terrain in the afternoons.
402 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Cold front has pushed through most of the Panhandles overnight, with areas across the southeast Panhandles not far behind.
Otherwise, it should be mostly cloudy overnight over the inland areas and muggy, with lows in the low to mid 70s. By Saturday, the subtropical ridge will begin building into the region from the east, leading to lower deep-layer moisture and even less forcing. With less coverage of clouds and precip, warmer temperatures are expected, with highs reaching the lower 90s.
624 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop this afternoon into this evening as a cold front moves into the area. Chances for showers/storms will increase this afternoon as this low level front returns north and another convectively aided disturbance/MCV approaches in perturbed/cyclonic wsw flow aloft.
best dynamics lie south along the cold front. H5/H7 ridging moves into the Plains region overnight into Saturday.
252 AM MDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Latest surface analysis shows rising pressures across the CWA as the high pressure builds south behind the departing cold front. Could see some shallow convection ovr the panhandle and in areas nearest the CO/WY stateline as the mid-level thermal trof moves thru around early in the afternoon.
240 AM MDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Imagery shows unsettled troughiness across the ern 3/4s of the CONUS with an amplified ridge ovr the west coast. Current SW trof continues to race through WY and into the High/Central Plains.
440 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 A warm front will keep unsettled weather conditions across the region into the weekend.
Warm start today with temperatures at 4 am running 3-7 degrees warmer and dewpoints 3-5 degrees higher. 25") as temperatures climb into the lower to mid 90s and combined with the elevated dewpoints it is going to feel hot.
311 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Mid and upper level troughing remains over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes with moist cyclonic low level flow across the area. Temperatures today will range from the lower 60s north to mid 70s south. Nam shows a 500 mb trough on the west coast and a trough in the central U. 12z Sat with a ridge over the Rockies. This trough remains over the area into Sun. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge across the southern half of the country 12z Mon. There is also a broad trough over western Canada and also across eastern Canada 12z Mon. The ridge starts to build over the Rockies 12z Tue and continues to build northward over the Rockies 12z Wed. This ridge continues to amplify over the western U.
357 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had an elongated area of high pressure extending from off the coast of southern California, east into Texas. Ridging extended up the west coast of the CONUS into western Canada, while a broad, low amplitude trough of low pressure extended from central Canada south into the north central CONUS. Have opted for the warmer MAV guidance. Skies will clear as well, and with drier air pushing into the forecast area from the northwest, overnight lows will bottom out in the lower to middle 50s.
Cooler Today with Fewer Storms. This will bring cooler, cloudier and more stable conditions to eastern Colorado today. Models even show some of the cooler air making it into the Upper Arkansas River Valley and parts of the San Luis Valley. The cooler temperatures will likely mean fewer storm across most of the plains today.
700 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 High pressure off the eastern seaboard will set up a warmer and more humid airflow for the next several days.
222 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 High pressure off the eastern seaboard will set up a warmer and more humid airflow for the next several days.
705 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017 Early morning surface map shows our incoming cold front extending from about Kansas City northeast into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. By afternoon, redevelopment will be taking place east of I-55 as the cold front arrives. The stalling out of the front will prevent any significantly cooler air moving in tonight, although areas near Galesburg may dip into the upper 50s. The upper pattern over Illinois will continue to be out of the southwest much of the week, with the western trough periodically digging southward. Significant amplification of the ridge over the eastern U.
1238 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 High pressure centered east of the region will remain in control today. A weakening cold front will push into the area tonight into Monday, becoming stationary by Monday night.
Showers and thunderstorms continued to develop along the cold front and move northeast into Missouri. Forecast soundings Clouds and cold advection with northerly winds will keep temperatures much cooler than yesterday with highs in the lower to mid 70s expected. Tonight the front begins to lift north during the evening and overnight as a warm front. Lows tonight will range from the lower to mid 60s.
Water vapor satellite indicates a strong trough developing west of Vancouver Island. The associated front will move through tonight and the dry slot between the front and trough Monday morning.
Otherwise we will see a period of dry and warmer weather today and Monday under a zonal flow aloft. Surface front associated with deep Pacific trof will bring a good chance of showers along with some frontal wind across the area Monday night.
Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough was located from southern ALTA/SASK border to ND. Trough was rotating to a negative tilt into southern Canada with better than 130M height falls to the north. ALTA/SASK portion of the trough will move east across southern MAN this afternoon. Next upper level trough off the west Canadian coast will approach the forecast area Tue night.
701 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017 SHRA/TSRA will slowly spread across the area today due to an approaching cold front. The cooler temperatures reflect the influence of clouds and precipitation for areas which are closest to the front, while the warmer temperatures reflect the limited cloud cover and warmer air mass ahead of the front.
High pressure continues to remain in control of the weather over the Ohio Valley this morning. Lows will be a little milder with readings in the low to mid 60s. Clouds will continue to increase on Monday as the frontal boundary pushes in from the northwest and the upper level ridging over the region flattens out. A ridge that has been providing us with dry conditions will continue to be flattened out across the area with some weak disturbances moving through in the mean flow aloft.
Mid/Upr level ridge will maintain foothold on our weather today, before it shifts slightly southward on Monday.
621 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017 249 AM CDT Post frontal convection continues over central Iowa under the influence of a negatively tilted trough across South Dakota and Minnesota. The trough continues northeast into Canada this morning while the cold front moves through the forecast area this afternoon. With dewpoints already in the low 60s, we should have enough surface moisture to support convection along the front. Rain ends across the forecast area as the cold front pushes southeast tonight. Cooler air will result in low temps in the low 50s near RFD to low 60s along and east of I-55. JEE 249 AM CDT Highs Monday will be cooler in the mid 70s to around 80.
650 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017 At 2 AM, a cold front extended from Ontonagan Michigan (western Upper Michigan) southeast to Prairie du Chien Wisconsin. Trough looks to deepen some en route, possibly with convective enhancement in CO later today/evening.
844 AM PDT Sun Sep 17 2017 A trough of low pressure will maintain below average high temperatures today, marine layer clouds from the coast to the coastal mountain slopes and passes with only partial clearing taking place during the day, and gusty west winds in the mountains and deserts. A little warmer on Monday as low pressure weakens.
High temperatures will reach into the upper 80s and lower 90s, but with the drier air and dewpoints falling into the low and mid 70s, heat indices will generally stay below 100.
A weather change is in the making for later this week as a strong trough brings cooler, windier weather to the area.
745 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 Aviation A cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
934 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 High pressure centered east of the region will remain in control today. A weakening cold front will push into the area tonight into Monday, becoming stationary by Monday night.
1025 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 Dry and warm air in the low/mid levels continues across South Florida in broad northerly flow between high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and Hurricane Jose well northeast of the Bahamas. Long period swell seen from several Atlantic beach cameras this morning supports the high risk of rip currents, with the highest risk at the beaches of Palm Beach County. High temperatures will reach into the upper 80s and lower 90s, but with the drier air and dewpoints falling into the low and mid 70s, heat indices will generally stay below 100.
Subtle area of associated low pressure will move with the wave and will bring a chance for light showers to my south central and James River Valley counties this evening/early Monday morning.
Tonight into Monday morning, a weak cold front will bring a chance of light rain to our northern areas.
GFS and NAM differ a bit on the depth of the moisture return, with NAM's deeper humidity leading to somewhat higher PoP's (though still not particularly impressive with the upper high's influence still being felt).
633 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017 Upper level short wave trough is lifting out negatively across the Dakotas. This has allowed the surface cold front to move southeast and at 07Z extended from eastern Iowa to southeast Kansas. The front is forecast to stall out over southern Kansas and then lift northward as a warm front tonight into Monday.
Aloft weak ridging is also in place. Over the western states an upper trough covers most of the region. A series of low pressure systems will work across the plains and the frontal boundary will drift south then back north. Aloft weak ridging will also remain in place allowing afternoon showers and storms. A ridge of high pressure will remain centered well to the northeast.
Storms have been developing across southeast Kansas ahead of a cold front.
High Pressure east of Central Indiana will continue to keep dry weather across the area this morning.
Still looking at the west as seeing the higher chances but even areas in the east have a chance at seeing scattered showers/storms this afternoon.
/issued 333 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017/ Main concerns will be rain chances next couple of days, the hot temperatures/associated elevated fire weather concerns and finally development of western trough and its impacts on the southern Plains by the end of the forecast period. Weak surface cold front will continue to push slowly south this morning, before retreating back north late today and tonight.
703 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 High pressure continues to remain in control of the weather over the Ohio Valley this morning. Lows will be a little milder with readings in the low to mid 60s. Clouds will continue to increase on Monday as the frontal boundary pushes in from the northwest and the upper level ridging over the region flattens out. A ridge that has been providing us with dry conditions will continue to be flattened out across the area with some weak disturbances moving through in the mean flow aloft.
Temps had fallen into the upper 30s a couple hours ago, but a pesky area of stratus has recently moved into Corson/Dewey counties and readings have risen into the low 40s. As the high begins shifting east later this afternoon, southerly winds will develop across the area.
This is due to a large area of high pressure shifting north and west from the central Gulf of Mexico into the Tennessee Valley. Positioned between high pressure to the northwest, and Hurricane Jose well to the northeast, the region will remain in light north/northeast flow over the next couple of days. From mid week into the latter half of the week, high pressure looks to become established north of the waters with easterly flow developing over the waters.
Temperatures ranged from 37 at Chadron and Pine ridge to 48 at Imperial. A warm front will develop across central Kansas this evening and lift into northern Kansas overnight. No favorable focus in the lower levels across western Nebraska tonight, with the disturbance in the mid levels along with weak instability the main ingredients for scattered shower and thunderstorm development. Lows from the mid and upper 40s northwest, where skies will begin to clear after midnight, to the lower 50s central and east where mostly cloudy skies to persist.
Upper trough down the eastern seaboard into FL and Hurricane Jose slowly moving northward in the Western Atlantic will keep dry mid- upper northerly flow over the area while upper ridging gets pushed to the Western Gulf.
1038 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 Generally a persistence forecast expected for the start of the week as a ridge of high pressure resides over the region. Forecast on track with stagnant high pressure over the region. Looks like a carbon copy of yesterday, perhaps a degree warmer. The additional moisture will begin to interact with a trough advancing through the Great Lakes region and lead to increased cloud cover across the North Country.
/issued 422 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017/ An upper level ridge over the lower MS River valley will bring continued warm and humid conditions to the Midsouth today.
However, models indicate that drier air will advect into the area today with deep layer northerly flow on the west side of an upper trough.
lower troposphere high pressure battles for dominance with a sheared out upper level trof cut off from the mean flow. Widespread dense valley fog has re-developed this morning across much of the area as high pressure has settled over the region and mostly clear skies prevail over the region. As the upper-lvl disturbance still continues to remain still semi- stationary aloft within the ridge, another round of showers will be possible over central NY and over NEPA this afternoon and early evening.
Through the day on Sunday the low level boundary will gradually slide southward, taking with it the best chances for rain as the day progresses. PWAT's for this trough will once again be very high, again on the order of 1. Perhaps contrasting from recent flooding events in and around Kansas City, is the lack of a real bulls-eye focus of the low level jet right on the KC metro. Also, the low level boundary should be to the north, which will shunt the low level focus north of KC. When the trough moves through there should be some subsidence in its wake, which should lower chances for rain through the rest of the day on Monday. The timing of the trough will dictate quite a bit.
The cold front which passed through the region last night will stall along the Oklahoma state line.
1237 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 Aviation A cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
The Subtropical Ridge over the Gulf of Mexico builds west across northern Mexico in the short term.