Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front extends southward through eastern MO and central AR. A couple of showers can't be ruled out west of I-65 late in the afternoon as the prefrontal trough approaches the area. HRRR has been consistent in showing a band of storms developing just ahead of the cold front. Flight conditions will deteriorate as a cold front moves through the terminals this evening and overnight. Storms will develop just ahead of the cold front this evening.
220 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017 In the wake of the cold front that passed through the region this morning, breezy winds were bringing cooler temperatures into the Ozarks. Temperatures overnight will be cooler than the past week as well with overnight lows dropping into the middle 20s under cloudy skies. Despite the sun, the cold Canadian airmass that will slide over the area will keep temperatures more seasonable with highs in the lower 40s.
MVFR ceilings are forecast for the early portions of the afternoon at almost all terminals as low clouds move through the state along and ahead of a cold front. The cold front is currently moving southeast through western portions of Arkansas.
This will likely lead to more of a mix for a period this morning with freezing drizzle likely more prominent than snow until the deformation zone reorganizes somewhat. The surface air temp freezing line is now along and NW of a Harlan-Boone-Charles City line at 09z with 32F road temps similarly oriented. The Winter Weather Advisory is somewhat questionable, but may be needed for different reasons than earlier anticipated, at least initially with freezing drizzle rather than snow, so will leave that intact as well.
Cooler temperatures have significantly slowed snow melt across the region and many of the hydrologic warnings and advisories have been eased (see discussion below). A trough digging SE through Montana Saturday will support ongoing light snow along the Montana/Wyoming divide region through Saturday evening.
1100 AM MST Fri Feb 24 2017 The Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories will be allowed to expire today at 11am this morning as the low pressure system that brought significant snowfall and strong winds to the region continues to dissipate and move into northern Colorado.
358 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017 The gusty northwest winds behind the overnight cold front have started to decrease this afternoon. The low clouds that were immediately behind the front has shifted off to the east leaving sunny skies area wide. With temperatures starting off 15 to 20 degrees lower than they were this morning, it will be cooler Saturday despite the insolation.
down to California will be under the influence of a large scale trough pattern. Smaller weather disturbances in this trough will move into the Northern Rockies from British Columbia. Temperatures will continue to be about ten degrees below normal with high temperatures struggling to reach the freezing mark.
351 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017 Tonight through Saturday: Surface cold front moving through AR at the moment not producing anything more than cloud cover and a few light showers. This has been expected as the low level cap has held strong. Temperatures Saturday will be about 20 degrees cooler than today, but closer to normal for this time of year.
247 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017 20Z water vapor imagery shows an upper level trough over the upper Midwest and middle MO river valley. Another upper trough was noted over the Pacific Northwest coast with a quasi zonal flow in between. If the clouds hold on through the morning, lows could be a couple degrees warmer. Saturday looks to be another relatively cold day with highs in the lower and mid 40s. Forecast soundings mix the boundary layer to around 850MB supporting the forecast highs in the lower and middle 40s. There may be some potential for afternoon highs to be a little warmer with MOS guidance a little warmer than my forecast.
107 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 High pressure ridge will be over the area today with a cold front approaching from the northwest tonight.
As cold high pressure gradually moves into western Kansas, highs today are expected to reach into the upper 30s to lower 40s from Dodge City south, with cooler mid 30s along Interstate 70 where cloud cover will be more widespread.
257 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017 By late this afternoon, the cold front responsible for some scattered showers today has made its way almost to the Indiana border. at least on elevated surfaces and bridges.
325 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 Upper level low centered over central Iowa this afternoon will lift NE toward the Great Lakes overnight tonight. Associated cold front moving toward the Mississippi Valley this afternoon will push east across TN tonight before moving east of the area Saturday morning. Gusty west winds and a daytime high in the lower to middle 50s that will slowly drop during the day will make it feel a bit more like winter. Dry and cold advection brings an end to the precipitation Saturday night with a zonal westerly flow regime gradually becoming southerly again ahead of another amplified long wave Mid America trough at mid week.
A deck of stratus lingers across the southeastern gulf and cloud cover across the Lower Keys have increased, though sunny conditions still persist. A low pressure system churns northwest of the Bahamas and is drifting northwest as a high pressure takes hold of the Southeastern US. Farther west across the CONUS, a frontal boundary associated with a deepening trough is approaching the Ohio River Valley. occasionally reaching south enough to affect the Lower to Middle Keys. a building ridge of high pressure will shift eastward with the axis across the island chain Saturday morning.
1059 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017 A cold front was sweeping across southern Missouri early this morning, bringing a much cooler airmass to the region. Highs today will range from the upper 40s in southeast Kansas to the lower 60s in south central Missouri. For tonight, temperatures will plummet into the low 20s.
A cold front will move through the area between 25/01Z and 25/08Z. /26/ Area soundings this morning showing an impressive capping inversion around 850 mb which should make it quite difficult for any warm advection convection this afternoon ahead of approaching cold front. This will help push a cold front through the the ArkLaMiss.
Broad upper trough over the area early this morning, with secondary piece of energy over UT forecast to slide eastward across CO this afternoon and evening.
/Tonight through Saturday/ Deformation area passing through forecast area at this time as upper low swings across the state. Quiet weather is expected into Saturday with ridging sliding toward the state.
The exception is at KCTB where dense freezing fog has settled onto the terminal area.
Temperatures will continue to fall into the lower and mid 20s. Immediately ahead of the snow band, the intrusion of dry mid- level air within the system dry slot has resulted in areas of freezing drizzle across portions of southeast and east-central NE. These conditions will be further exacerbated in areas where more persistent freezing drizzle occurs this morning. While the fresh snow will have modulating effects on temperatures, it does appear that we will see gradually warmer daytime temperatures through the weekend. A broad, cyclonic mid-level flow regime in place at the onset of the extended range is forecast to amplify in response to the progression of a positively tilted trough from the Interior West into the Great Plains during the first half of the upcoming work week.
324 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017 Seeing some areas of lower cloud cover across parts of the CWA this afternoon, but expect them to lift or dissipate tonight as high pressure settles in. A weak low pressure system will move over the Northern Plains on Saturday, and in association with an approaching mid level trough, may produce a few light snow showers, mainly over the northwestern CWA closest to the trough.
The upper level trough axis is currently digging through the Cascade Mountain range, directing plentiful Pacific moisture through the northern Rockies and northern high plains regions. Do not expect the high temperature today to increase more than 5 degrees or so from this morning's low due to the cold air mass and extensive cloud cover. As the upper level trough remains over the area cool and wet conditions will persist through the remainder of the Labor Day weekend.
Upper 70s will be seen across the north while the remainder of the state will return to the low 80s, along with dew points increasing into the lower 60s.
Surface wise, a broad western Atlantic ridge axis is draped across the southern half of the Florida peninsula, resulting in mostly east winds of 10 to 15 knots. Mostly east winds will vary between 10 and 15 knots with the higher winds on the outer Florida Straits.
Temperatures continue below average across the region today with the large upper trough over the West. Warming returns beginning Labor Day as ridging from the eastern Pacific extends into NorCal and onshore flow slackens.
Long wave trough forecast to remain over the western US with many short waves moving through the flow through 84 hours. Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough located over the west coast with short waves embedded.
733 AM EDT SUN SEP 4 2016 A blocking ridge aloft will keep TS Hermine offshore.
Co-incident with this, a northern stream 100+ kt jet is over topping a broad ridge across southern Canada creating significant diffluence aloft between the two features. This will act in tandem to create a large and persistent upward motion field across North Dakota and in turn increase the low level jet pulling moisture into the region.
Upper level ridging continues to remain in control of weather across the Tennessee Valley this morning. Model soundings persist with a very strong cap around 700 mb courtesy of strong upper level ridging through the day. Likely will be a tad warmer today based forecast 850 mb temperatures and slightly less cloud development expected.
Slightly warmer high temperatures can be expected today as the surface/850 mb ridge begins to shift east of the region and surface/low level winds become southeasterly/southerly.
West Texas will be located beneath weak mid/upper level southwesterly flow today and tonight as we remain positioned between a broad western trough and a ridge stretching from Central Texas into the eastern Great Lakes.
Another very nice day is in store for the Ozarks today as afternoon temperatures climb into the lower 80s for most of the area.
1229 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2016 Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine will continue to lift slowly northeast along the East Coast through late week as high pressure persists over the Southeastern States. Lows in the lower 60s along the coastal plain to around 70 along the Outer Banks. The remainder of Eastern NC will experience dry weather with increasing warmth and humidity, especially late week as high pressure surface and aloft prevails over the area.
843 AM MDT SUN SEP 4 2016 Water vapor shows deep upper trof over the pac nw/west coast with disturbed sw flow extending newd through the nrn plains. a robust wave (currently rounding the base of the trof) will eject through the cntrl rockies. Cooler air will continue to filter through the cwfa with sct shra/tsra expected.
528 AM MDT SUN SEP 4 2016 Water vapor shows deep upper trof over the pac nw/west coast with disturbed sw flow extending newd through the nrn plains. a robust wave (currently rounding the base of the trof) will eject through the cntrl rockies. Cooler air will continue to filter through the cwfa with sct shra/tsra expected.
The NAM shows the Watertown area near the juxtaposition with easterly winds ahead of a cold front. If storms can develop along the warm front then severe weather with tornadoes will be possible.
Troughiness trailing from the base of Hermine continues to lie across north Florida while the westernmost flank of the subtropical Atlantic ridge is across south Florida. Models hinting at a surge of NE winds moving south through the coastal waters overnight as high pressure noses down the east coast.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 68 92 68 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 65 89 64 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 87 64 90 65 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 58 86 59 / 0 0 0 0.
In the mid/upper levels, the upper low associated with Post-Tropical Storm Hermine sits over the mid-Atlantic region. Farther south and closer to home, mid level ridging extends from south of Bermuda westward over the Bahamas and the Florida peninsula. This pattern will continue through Sunday when the troughing associated with Post- Tropical Hermine strengthens and breaks down the broad ridging. This will allow for another upper high to develop over the northern gulf coast. The predominant synoptic feature to influence the weather on Monday will be subtropical high pressure located near Bermuda and ridging westward.
1024 AM EDT SUN SEP 4 2016 High pressure will remain in place across the region through mid week. High pressure and dry conditions will be in place across the area today.
High pressure aloft and on the surface will remain in control of the weather pattern. /issued 202 AM CDT SUN SEP 4 2016/ Surface and upper-level ridge to maintain mostly clear skies today with light winds and high temperatures in the lower 90s across the region. Clouds to increase in coverage overnight into Monday as upper- ridge shifts east and southerly flow of moisture returns across the region. Low temperatures in the low 70s expected tonight. An enhanced sea-breeze to allow for a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the region on Monday afternoon with high temperatures forecast to climb into the lower 90s.
A low level ridge will prevail over the southeast states today producing southeast flow over Central Alabama. Afternoon temperatures will be warmer today as the low level winds have veered since yesterday and this will usher in a warmer air mass.
The H5 ridge will not yet have returned aloft, so some seabreeze showers are still possible Monday afternoon.
A deep upper level trough was over the western CONUS and an upper level ridge axis extended from the lower Mississippi River Valley northeastward into the Great Lakes region early this morning.
1121 AM EDT SUN SEP 4 2016 Canadian high pressure will keep pleasant weather over NY and PA through Monday, with the possible exception of the Catskills and Poconos, where light showers associated with Hermine are possible. High pressure extending out of Ontario will keep dew points lower than in previous weeks, while Hermine's precipitation remains east of our forecast area.
High pressure system now over the eastern Great Lakes causing light SE sfc winds in E Iowa/NW Illinois.
731 AM EDT Sun Sep 4 2016 High pressure will maintain dry weather and warm temperatures through midweek. No major changes were needed for the near term forecast this morning as high pressure remains entrenched on the western flank of post-tropical storm Hermine. Mid/upper ridging with neutralized, then warm temperature advection between Hermine and a Rocky Mountain trough will support further temperature moderation.
/Issued 430 AM EDT SUN SEP 4 2016/ Surface analysis shows a high pressure ridge stretching from the Mid Atlantic states back through north Georgia. A weak trough is situated across the panhandle of Florida. The low pressure trough will be the main weather player for today. The ridge will push southward tomorrow, and the trough will be less of a player for precip for Monday. Models are progging a little less cloud cover for Monday, with slightly warmer MaxT's. Pattern dominated by large scale ridging and well above normal temps.
Low temperatures should bottom out in the low/mid 70s this morning but higher moisture just along the coast will keep temperatures in the upper 70s. Upper air analysis shows a long wave trough over the west coast with a ridge developing from the lower Mississippi River valley through the Great Lakes. Troughing was located over the Mid- Atlantic associated with post tropical cyclone Hermine.
High pressure will build south today, and northeasterly winds will increase to 10-15 knots over the waters. East northeast winds will increase to 10-15 knots this afternoon as high pressure builds south.
737 AM EDT SUN SEP 4 2016 Aviation High pressure will bring fair weather through Labor Day. Some showers and thunderstorms are expected by mid week as low pressure approaches the Great Lakes.
1207 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2016 Fair weather expected to continue through this week, as dry high pressure dominates. Upper trough will shift southward and through the southeastern states later tonight, but due the dry conditions through the atmosphere, precip is not expected. May see a few more mid or upper level clouds tonight with the trough as it pushes through. The trough axis will be off the southeastern coast by morning.
1045 AM CDT SUN SEP 4 2016 Some high clouds slipping into the high pressure ridge are keeping the temperatures down a bit this morning in Iowa and northwestern IL. High pressure anchored over the Great Lakes will bring pleasant weather to central Illinois today. Light E/SE winds around the high will keep humidity values low, as afternoon high temperatures top out in the lower 80s. Another clear and cool night will be on tap for tonight, although with winds taking on more of a southerly component, low temperatures will be slightly warmer than in recent nights. with readings dropping into the lower 60s. Blocking pattern will remain in place across the central/eastern CONUS through mid-week, as remains of Hurricane Hermine meander off the Mid-Atlantic coast.
Labor day will be much like today as a maritime upper level ridge builds over the gulf south. The maritime ridge will begin to take on more continental characteristics as it expands north and eastward midweek. How long the ridge holds strong will determine how long of generally dry period will remain in place.
733 AM EDT Sun Sep 4 2016 High pressure will maintain dry weather and warm temperatures through midweek. No major changes were needed for the near term forecast this morning as high pressure remains entrenched on the western flank of post-tropical storm Hermine. Mid/upper ridging with neutralized, then warm temperature advection between Hermine and a Rocky Mountain trough will support further temperature moderation.
/issued 329 AM CDT SUN SEP 4 2016/ (Today and Tonight) A strengthening ridge of high pressure will bring drier weather, partly cloudy skies and slightly warmer temperatures to the forecast area through tonight. Afternoon highs today will around seasonal normals in the lower 90s. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s, slightly warmer than seasonal normals.
922 AM EDT SUN SEP 4 2016 Upper level ridge to build in as Hermine departs. Next cold front approaches late in the week. Clear skies will continue as a high pressure remains in control of the weather conditions through tonight. with the upper trough over the western CONUS and the upper ridge parked over the deep south. but staying dry given the low RH in the mid and upper levels. Temperatures and humidity will be on the rise as high pressure anchors itself over the southern and eastern US.
Deep and slow-moving ridge over the central and eastern Great Lakes /nestled between western Conus trough and tropical system in western Atlantic/ will maintain quiet weather. A large area of high pressure and deep dry air is settled over nrn Michigan.
Upper level trough is transitioning across southeast Oregon this morning, with cloud to ground lightning in Malheur County Oregon this morning as of 10am MDT. Isolated thunderstorms will develop this morning along the higher terrain of SE Oregon and southern Idaho along the periphery of the Snake Plain, and taper off after sunset. The Treasure Valley will see lower chances of precipitation today as the center of the trough is further south than previously forecast and in an unfavorable position within the trough to receive precipitation due to the terrain.
Dewpoints this morning are in the lower to mid 70s, and are about 5 to 10 degrees moister than even 24 hours ago. With the upper ridge building back over our region, conditions will feel again rather hot and muggy. Highs today will reach the lower to mid 90s. Latest satellite analysis showed the region under an upper ridge with a 592dkm high center over the central CWA. Overnight conditions continued to be on the more comfortable side with dewpoints in the middle 60s to the lower 70s. The upper ridge center will continue around the CWA through the period. Daily highs will be in the lower 90s. With nightly lows in the lower to middle 70s.
High pressure centered over the eastern Great Lakes will result in a persistent southeast flow across southern Lake Michigan with waves up to 2 feet this afternoon. This ridge is being blocked from moving east in large part due to the post-tropical cyclone Hermine moving slowly up the east coast. The ridge has slid far enough east that we now get into a better southerly flow and this will allow temps to warm slightly today and over the next few days. Breezy southwest winds will usher warm and more humid air into southern WI on Monday as the ridge over the mid Mississippi River Valley starts to shift east. Monday night will probably stay dry, but there is a chance that convection could develop over MN and spread east overnight as the low level jet veers.
Surface ridging over the southern Applachians will produce generally light winds through the period.
1039 AM EDT SUN SEP 4 2016 An expansive area of high pressure stretching from the Great Lakes to northern New England will remain in place through early this week.
935 AM EDT SUN SEP 4 2016 Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine will continue to lift slowly northeast along the East Coast through late week as high pressure persists over the Southeastern States. Lows in the lower 60s along the coastal plain to around 70 along the Outer Banks. The remainder of Eastern NC will experience dry weather with increasing warmth and humidity, especially late week as high pressure surface and aloft prevails over the area.
This moisture rich airmass is forecast to surge north across the area trough this afternoon.
Dewpoints are now in the lower 60s, making mid morning RH values over 70 percent. ERVIN High pressure system now over the eastern Great Lakes causing light SE sfc winds in E Iowa/NW Illinois.
A low pressure trough will remain over California through today and result in continued cooler than normal temperatures.
Models depict this low level convergence zone will be stronger over inland areas for this afternoon.
For the rest of the day, high pressure will bring light south or southeast winds around 5 knots or less and mostly clear skies are expected through the forecast period. Cool morning temperatures will lead to afternoon readings reaching around 80 as high pressure loosens its grip slightly and the air mass continues to modify. This will lead to a repeat performance for Labor Day except for afternoon highs warming more firmly into the lower half of the 80s, all of this with low humidity and just a few shallow cumulus and wisps of cirrus. Current water vapor satellite imagery indicates a moderate surge of upper level height falls occuring along the west coast while the ridge continues to mature a rex block with Hermine from the Great Lakes eastward.
Cooler than normal conditions will continue for interior locations through Monday. An unseasonably strong upper level trough is impacting the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures are about 5 to 15 degrees cooler than normal. The smoke from the Gap Fire in Klamath National Forest in NW Siskiyou County was trapped in the low-lying valley with the overnight inversion.
We are being influenced by high pressure at the sfc and ridging aloft. Highs today will be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday and span the 80s. Other than some passing sct, to possible bkn, AC at times, ridging influences surface and aloft will provide for VFR/SKC conditions thru 05/12Z.