Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGHS FROM THE PACIFIC INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND. A COOLER AIR MASS. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER NICELY FOR TOMORROW AS SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS SET UP WHEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. BUT WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO OUR EAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 30S BUT SOME 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS WILL START MOVING IN AND THE AIR MASS WILL BE A TAD WARMER.
THE AIR MASS IS NEARLY SATURATED DUE TO THE RAIN AND INVASION OF COOLER AIR.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES SHOULD AMPLIFY THRU 17/24Z ALSO AND SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION POTENTIAL AT TAF SITES.
1157 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. FAIRLY HIGH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG AS THE CLEAR SKIES ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST AS QUASI ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO A SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH A DEEP LOW DIGGING IN AT H5 OVER THE DESERT SW. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMING ACROSS ILLINOIS, AS A CUT-OFF LOW IN THE PLAINS SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO COLORADO.
706 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS PERIOD. THE SUB-TROPICAL JET WILL MOVE AROUND TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW AND WEAKEN. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE LOOKING LIKE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SEVERE. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE PATTERN AND TRIGGER STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL KEEP SFC TEMPS WARMER WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S E TO THE LOW 40S ELSEWHERE. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH A BAND OF MID CLDS WL MOVE ACROSS UPR MI THIS EVNG AS A WEAK LO PRES TROF CROSSES THE UPR LKS. ANOTHER HI PRES MOVING IN BEHIND THIS TROF WL CAUSE VFR WX TO PERSIST THRU THE DAY ON FRI.
WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER WRT TO LOWS TONIGHT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAINLY BASED ON A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER AND MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA GETTING WARMER THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF LARGE MEANDERING CLOSED UPPER LOW.
730 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD WEST TWD SOUTH FL THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE LOWER THAN ADVERTISED (70-80 PCT) COVERAGE TODAY.
A WEDGE OF COOLER AIR BISECTS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY TO MIX OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. INITIAL CONCERN IS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AND ONGOING CLOUDS/SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. WITH SUCH LOW FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 8500 FEET AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. BRB THE UPPER LOW WILL START TO MOVE TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
A COLD AND DYNAMIC UPPER LOW WAS OVER SE UT/NE AZ THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRAVEL EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. DISTURBANCES ROTATING COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND THIS LOW AND UP INTO CO WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH FRI NIGHT. CLOUD TOPS WERE COOLING AND EXPANDING ACROSS SW CO AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW.
555 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015 A COLD AND DYNAMIC UPPER LOW WAS OVER SE UT/NE AZ THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRAVEL EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. DISTURBANCES ROTATING COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND THIS LOW AND UP INTO CO WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH FRI NIGHT. CLOUD TOPS WERE COOLING AND EXPANDING ACROSS SW CO AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.
THE HIGH AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.
603 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015 CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND GETS CAUGHT UP IN A DEEPENING TROUGH SLIDING FROM WESTERN CANADA TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z SUN. SOME HINTS OF A WARM FRONT TRYING TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS TO WESTERN WASHINGTON ON FRIDAY.
IN THE SHORT TERM, A FEW (2-3) ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH HE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS OR SO AS A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE REGION WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT, AND PERSISTENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO MAINTAIN INSTABILITY FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD. THE INITIAL ROTATING STORMS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL LARGER THAN GOLFBALLS AND DAMAGING WIND BEFORE THE STORMS BECOME MORE CLUSTERED OR LINEAR, PRESENTING A SLIGHTLY SMALLER HAIL THREAT AND STILL DAMAGING WIND THREAT THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 283 AND 183 CORRIDORS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIVE A DRY SLOT THROUGH THE REGION OF FRIDAY, BUT NOT BEFORE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION CONTRIBUTES TO YET ANOTHER SEVERE EPISODE WITH AS GOOD OR BETTER CAPE AND SHEAR COMBINATIONS.
A LARGE UPPER CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A COLD UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH FRIDAY. A BROAD UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THIS EVENING. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW INTO UTAH. AND AS THE LOW FINALLY STARTS SHIFTING EAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN GENERAL WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AS THE AIRMASS HAS MODIFIED QUITE A BIT TODAY. EXPECT LINGERING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SPINE OF UTAH AND EASTERN VALLEYS TOMORROW BEFORE THE LOW PULLS OUT OF THE AREA.
POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS AT KGUY BY AROUND 20Z.
915 AM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND WILL HOLD SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
625 AM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY.
1013 AM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A cold front will start to turn southerly winds to the west and northwest by the end of the TAF period. A few locations, have fallen into the 30s, including KJCT, which is sitting at freezing as of 3 AM. Tonight, with the increased moisture, lows will be warmer than normal again, falling into the upper 30s to lower 40s.
A few locations, have fallen into the 30s, including KJCT, which is sitting at freezing as of 3 AM. Tonight, with the increased moisture, lows will be warmer than normal again, falling into the upper 30s to lower 40s.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH SOUTHWEST BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BY MID MORNING SUNDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT THAT TIME.
DEW POINTS ARE ALSO ABOVE FREEZING WITH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH AND EVEN SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH ACROSS WESTERN MN. AN ELONGATED TROUGH IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF TO THE SOUTH WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT.
620 AM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY.
A BEAUTIFUL END TO OUR WEEKEND, WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED AND IN RESPONSE IT WILL BE WARMER AT THE SURFACE.
WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH TO CROSS FA TODAY. LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA FLATTENS AND SHIFTS EAST. BROAD TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
/ISSUED 625 AM EST SAT DEC 5 2015/ DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WAS NOTED TRAVERSING NORTH GA AND THE LOWER TN VALLEY REGION.
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AT 00Z AS HIGH AS 110 METERS AT KGGW. WATER VAPOR LOOP IN COMBINATION WITH RECENT RUC MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOWED THE TROUGH AXIS FROM NEAR THE ID/WY BORDER SWD INTO AZ. EXPECT INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUD COVER FOR THE AREA TODAY AS THE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES EWD. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN LATER SUN. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SITES.
616 AM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
643 AM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY.
AREAS SEEING MORE CLOUDS OUT WEST WILL NOT WARM AS MUCH AS CENTRAL AND EAST LOCATIONS WITH A NICE REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S EXPECTED TODAY. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET/ECSMOS. EXPECT A NEAR COPY FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AGAIN AND TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE LIKELY 1-3F DEGREES WARMER IN THE AFTERNOON.
MORNING TEMPERATURES OFF TO A MUCH WARMER START THAT THE PAST SEVERAL MORNINGS WITH READINGS STILL WELL INTO THE 30S.
BUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EARLY MORNING SNOW WAS FAVORING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. A FAST-MOVING RIDGE PASSES THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN LATER TONIGHT. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME ZONAL TO START OUT THE NEW WEEK AHEAD OF A TROUGH CARVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS TO END OUT THE WEEK.
WINDS GO LIGHT UNDER THE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT SHOULD HAVE TAKEN THEIR TOLL.
EXPECT 10-15 KNOT SW WINDS BY MIDDAY BEFORE A DRY COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE THIS EVENING WITH OCNL NRLY GUSTS. /ISSUED 332 AM CST SAT DEC 5 2015/ OPEN TROUGH POISED JUST WEST OF THE LOWER CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AT 3 AM REMAINS ON TRACK TO REACH THE TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON COMPLETE WITH AN ENHANCED BELT OF WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 40 KNOTS AT 700 MB. MODEST MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH AND HIGH CLOUDS OF VARYING OPACITY LOOK TO LIMIT MIXING HEIGHTS AND THE OVERALL BRUNT OF GRADIENT WINDS TODAY. THIS SHOULD GARNER DEEPER MIXING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH IN THE FAR SW PANHANDLE ON PAR WITH THE HIGHER MAV NUMBERS. THESE WAVES WILL HELP TO DISLODGE A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS THAT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE SOUTH PAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA TODAY.
WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING TO THE EAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BISECTS THE DAKOTAS. LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE FRONT/TROF PASSAGE DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING INTO THE LOWER 40S. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK DRY UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE AREA.
1006 AM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER PENNSYLVANIA THIS WEEKEND.
1033 AM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
443 AM MST SAT DEC 5 2015 12Z TAF CYCLE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES OVER NM. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF NEW MEXICO TODAY WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO CROSS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AFTER COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
THIS TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN SOME AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. STRONG/DEEP SUBSIDENCE WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING TROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
651 AM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER PENNSYLVANIA THIS WEEKEND.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT DRAMATICALLY COLDER BUT TEMPERATURES DO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S FAIRLY QUICKLY. THIS COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. WE HAVE ALSO SEEN A PATTERN RECENTLY OF THE MODELS OVERDOING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THIS PATTERN.
HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER AND BIT CLOUDIER GFS SOLUTION (AND WITH THE ECMWF NUMBER COMING IN. THE COOLER ECMWF).
1019 AM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY-MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS FORECASTED. DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN RESPONSE TO WAVE DIGGING IN THE MIDWEST.
MAIN FACTORS OF CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM ARE WINDS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHES THE COAST AND PUSHES THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT.
458 AM MST SAT DEC 5 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. BY LATE MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EL PASO COUNTY AND THEN CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THRU THE PLAINS THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER TODAY. THE UPR TROF MOVES OUT OF THE STATE IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
625 AM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WAS NOTED TRAVERSING NORTH GA AND THE LOWER TN VALLEY REGION.
1018 AM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WAS WORKING INTO MANITOBA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. AS SKIES WILL BE FAIRLY CLEAR FOR AT THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE INCREASED MID AND HIGH CLOUD ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTING VERY LIGHT/PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS -- WHICH MAY LINGER UNTIL 14Z. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING THE LOW-AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW BLOCKING PATTERN -- CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY -- TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD TODAY.
400 AM PST SAT DEC 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY THEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS MERCED AND MARIPOSA COUNTIES ON SUNDAY.
A VEIL OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS LOW WILL SHIFT ENE THRU THE DAY TODAY. FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LOW GOING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY PRECIP CLEARS THE CWA GOING INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS OVER THE CWA.
SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. MTN VALLEYS AND AREAS IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN AND BAKER VALLEY WILL START OFF WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. CLOUDS INCREASE AND THICKEN LATER TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PAC NW COAST.
636 AM CST SAT DEC 5 2015 NO CHANGES OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS NOW PROPAGATED ALONG A LINE FROM FAR NORTHEAST THROUGH FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING.
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER TROUGHING WORKING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. WITH BROAD AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING BUILDING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. IN THE LOW LEVELS. BROAD RIDGING IS CENTERED TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY BUT DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE A COLD FRONT IS WORKING THROUGH THE LONG AXIS OF THE PLAINS STATES.
/ISSUED 256 AM EST SAT DEC 5 2015/ SURFACE COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PENINSULA WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS ARE LESS BULLISH ON MID WEEK TROUGHING. SO KEPT WITH THE LOWER CONSENSUS POPS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
305 AM PST SAT DEC 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY. A "DIRTY" (LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS) RIDGE WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA TODAY. A COLDER START, WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL COMBINE TO BRING THE RETURN OF VALLEY INVERSIONS WITH LIMITED DISPERSION OF PARTICULATES, ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS.
612 AM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS FORECASTED. DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN RESPONSE TO WAVE DIGGING IN THE MIDWEST.
Given this, have removed the lower clouds (1500ft) from the TAFs this morning. This high pressure system will continue to dominate into the southeast and keep the CWA dry today. Highs today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday which will result in maximum temperatures around normal.
550 AM CST SAT DEC 5 2015 MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ABOVE FREEZING RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MELTING. AS TROUGH MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE TROUGH. WITH 925 HPA TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING.
919 AM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
645 AM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
The 7 am EST regional surface analysis showed a large area of high pressure across much of the eastern CONUS, and a quasi-stationary front just off the southern FL coast.
WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTH TONIGHT AS REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RETREAT EAST AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING RIDGE WHILE A SHORT WAVE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PUSH HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND INTO TEXAS TONIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE LOWER VALLEY AROUND NOON SUNDAY. WITH THE TROUGH AND THE BULK OF THE ENERGY FARTHER NORTH.
A FEW INSTANCES OF ISOLATED FOG/FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 IN NRN LA AND SW/SRN AR.
632 AM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER PENNSYLVANIA THIS WEEKEND.
NO CHANGES OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS NOW PROPAGATED ALONG A LINE FROM FAR NORTHEAST THROUGH FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING.
923 AM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
A dirty ridge of high pressure is moving quickly across California, with increasing high clouds over NorCal. Temperatures are running a fair bit cooler than yesterday as the airmass has dried out somewhat. The next low pressure system is clearly evident on satellite imagery, centered in the Northern Pacific at around 50N 146w.
SKIES ARE CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 50 AT THE COAST. SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE TOO LOW FOR ANY RAIN ON SUNDAY WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
721 AM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY-MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS FORECASTED. DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN RESPONSE TO WAVE DIGGING IN THE MIDWEST.
although MVFR cigs may develop late tonight across the northeast Oklahoma TAF sites ahead of a weak cold front.
/issued 354 AM CST SAT DEC 5 2015/ Conditions today are expected to be similar to those yesterday with temperatures perhaps a few degrees warmer today. An upper trough will move over the Central/Southern Plains later today and will send a cold front southward into the CWA tonight/Sunday morning.
THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE NW CWA TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE CLOUDY REGION OF SE WI. THE WELL ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL REACH MO AND THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z SUN WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING TO THE WEST.
1041 AM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE COVERED MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY.
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE AREA. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 57 32 57 42 / 0 0 10 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 56 28 56 40 / 0 0 0 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 56 29 56 41 / 0 0 0 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 55 23 56 35 / 0 0 0 20.
558 AM EST SAT DEC 5 2015 AREAS OF DENSE FREEZING FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT THIS MORNING. FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 30. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES ISSUED A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EARLIER. ADDED AREAS OF FREEZING FOG TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER FREEZING FOG ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN AREA AND WILL PUSH EAST THIS WEEKEND AND WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE MID-SOUTH WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS OF DRY.
A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE NC/C WI LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE A SFC TROF EDGED EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. COMBINED WITH ROAD TEMPS AT OR A LITTLE BLO FREEZING. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT MOST OF THE LOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SE. AS SW WINDS AT 950-925 MB SHOVE THE LOW CLOUDS EAST. AND A RESULTING INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (TO ABOUT 800 MB) MAY RESULT IN A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER NC/C WI AFTER 09Z/SUN. GIVEN TEMPS NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. HAVE OPTED TO JUST MENTION A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THIS TIME. TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER. WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY CROSSING CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH UTAH WILL MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. A MOIST LAYER FROM H7 TO H5 DEPICTED BY THE NAM AND H6 TO H4 BY THE GFS WILL BE PRESENT JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH WEAK OMEGA. WENT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FA BY 06Z. MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH AS H7-H3 RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLS TO 5 TO 15 PERCENT. FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL IN THE EXTENDED AS WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A TRANSITORY MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY. A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MET/MAV WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PROVIDES A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WARMER MAV AND THE COOLER MET.
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TEENS. TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING AT 1 AM THIS MORNING. FOLKS OUT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE LIKELY NOT TO SEE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING TODAY WHILE COMMUNITIES EAST SHOULD SEE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S FOR HIGHS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST WYOMING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WE WILL SEE WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE.
This system will aide in pushing a Pacific cold front through western and central KS this afternoon to early evening while ahead of this boundary the lee trough continues deepening over eastern Colorado. However, the lower 5 kft of the atmosphere will remain very dry with this negating much, if any, threat for measurable precipitation, hence leaving only a few sprinkles. Otherwise, increasing cloud cover through the day will limit solar insolation slightly but temps in the 50s are still expected ahead of the cold front.
WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EASTWARD.