Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
434 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND FRONT STRETCHED SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE THE PAST WEEK. THE COLD FRONT DOES LAG BEHIND AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. A PIECE OF AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER CA WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS AT MIDWEEK. AND AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPS SE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THE TWO WILL COMBINE TO BRING AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH TO THE EASTERN CONUS.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT.
454 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY. COLD FRONT STILL BACK OVER THE UPR MS VALLEY. WITH RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST SLOWLY PUSHING OFF THE SE COAST. WITH FILL IN EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPR TROUGH BRINGS WEAK CONVERGENCE TO THE AREA. COLD FRONT FINALLY TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA IN THE 06-12Z TIMEFRAME. STRONG CAA UNDER WNW FLOW WITH SFC RIDGING UPON THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. AS QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE THERE WILL BE WITH THIS SHEARED OUT AND QUICKLY MOVING SYSTEM PUSHING OVER DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS.
However, when looking at mixed layer CAPE, values drop considerably, into the low hundreds. A cold front will move into the area from the north first thing Monday morning. A cooler airmass will enter the region Monday night, setting the stage for what will likely be a period of at or below average temperatures for the remainder of the workweek.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
653 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY. COLD FRONT STILL BACK OVER THE UPR MS VALLEY. WITH RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST SLOWLY PUSHING OFF THE SE COAST. WITH FILL IN EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPR TROUGH BRINGS WEAK CONVERGENCE TO THE AREA. COLD FRONT FINALLY TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA IN THE 06-12Z TIMEFRAME. STRONG CAA UNDER WNW FLOW WITH SFC RIDGING UPON THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. AS QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE THERE WILL BE WITH THIS SHEARED OUT AND QUICKLY MOVING SYSTEM PUSHING OVER DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS.
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THETA-E RIDGE AND LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PUMPED INTO THE REGION WITH EXTRA CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS VIA AN INVERTED TROUGH/LOW TO THE SOUTH. DESPITE A BROAD WEAK UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GULF.
657 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND FRONT STRETCHED SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE THE PAST WEEK. THE COLD FRONT DOES LAG BEHIND AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. A PIECE OF AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER CA WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS AT MIDWEEK. AND AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPS SE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THE TWO WILL COMBINE TO BRING AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH TO THE EASTERN CONUS.
628 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A WARM DAY TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS RIDING ACROSS THE APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE APPEAR POISED TO OFFER WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AS WELL. A COLD FRONT AND OR PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL TEAM UP TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO THE EVENING.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 DUE TO THE COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULTING INSTABILITY REMAINING HIGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REESTABLISHES ITSELF ALOFT. AS THE TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS.
LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL GET PUSHED INTO ALABAMA ON TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT. RAISED POPS A BIT IN THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
A LOW IS BRIEFLY CONSOLIDATING NEAR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AS ENERGY CARVES INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE MEAN TROUGH POSITION OVER THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA BUT SOME BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING TO MARGINALLY FREEZING LEVELS WEST AND PART OF THE NORTH.
HIGH PRESSURE SIGNALED A COLD AIR MASS ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN-MANITOBA LINE. RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN BRINGING MOISTURE TO THE HIGH PLAINS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
331 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015 COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK AND OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN MOVING IN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE THE MAIN POINTS OF THE FORECAST. UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING REGIME TO AT LEAST NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE DRIEST AIR AND LIGHTEST WINDS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. THOSE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PROCEED ANOTHER UPPER LOW/TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS AT MID WEEK. TROUGH ALONG CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING IS NOT QUITE AS DEEP AS FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR MIDWEEK. STATIONARY FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FA. STILL SOME MINOR DISAGREEMENTS ON TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY.
STATIONARY FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FA. STILL SOME MINOR DISAGREEMENTS ON TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY.
138 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY MID WEEK. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE WEAK TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE A BIT AND THERE IS SOME ENHANCED THETA-E AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH. THE RIDGE IS STRONGER FARTHER EAST AND THE AIR SOMEWHAT DRIER AND MORE STABLE. THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO BUT WILL ALLOW FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE DURING THE EARLY MORNING/PREDAWN HOURS AS THE TROUGH SLIDES EAST. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ALLOWING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH.
124 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY WEEK. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PROVIDE STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THE ORIENTATION OF THE HIGH HAS SHIFTED THROUGH TIME AND WITH THAT.
1129 PM MDT SUN MAY 17 2015 IN SPITE OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER UTAH AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SPREADING FROM THE SOUTH AS THE NEXT CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW ADVECTS MOISTURE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE MOISTURE LEVELS TO RISE ONCE AGAIN AS GULF MOISTURE IS TAPPED. AN 110 KT JET ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH GIVING IT A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT. NUDGED MONDAY/S HIGHS TOWARD COOLER MAV GUIDANCE. IMPACTS TO ROADWAYS OVER THE HIGH PASSES PROBABLY NEGLIGIBLE WITH MOST SNOW MELTING ON CONTACT SO WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING HILITES.
255 AM PDT MON MAY 18 2015 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND THROUGH CALIFORNIA TODAY.
AS PRECIPITATION WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S ON TUESDAY.
A MIDDLE AND LEVEL REGIONAL SCALE BLOCKY ANTICYCLONE IS WELL ALIGNED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. LATEST IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND LAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 300 AM DETAIL NEAR 1025 MB ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED NEAR 30 NORTH 70 WEST YET SLIDING EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE AROUND 80 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
WINDY CONDITIONS AND SNOW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA WHERE TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 HAD FALLEN FROM THE MID 50S OF YESTERDAY MORNING. THIS COLD LAYER WILL THICKEN TO ABOUT A 800 MB WITH A MUCH WARMER LAYER ALOFT TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL LOW SWIRLING OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN SD AND LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD RED RIVER VALLEY.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE 60S. AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST TODAY.
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING FOR INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
Some of this activity may move into at least the western counties of West Central Texas tonight, and this is where the highest PoPs were placed. The overall upper level pattern of a trough over the western US and a ridge over the central or eastern US will continue, with southwest flow aloft across West Central Texas.
A theta-e ridge at surface will be INVOF highway 349 and ewd. Indications are that the mid level trof will finally move enough ewd to restrict rain potential to the far e CWFA Sat/Sun.
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR MASS TO FILTER IN TODAY BEHIND VERY STRONG LATE SPRING CYCLONE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. UPSTREAM ENERGY SUPPORTS WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE MIDWEST BEHIND THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM.
350 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2015 A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE BIGGER WEATHER CONCERN IS GOING TO BE THE NEAR RECORD LOWS MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING AT MANY LOCATIONS.
THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS TODAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PLUS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
229 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST. THE WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS PWAT VALUES RISE TO AROUND 1. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME STEEP THIS AFTERNOON UNDER STRONG INSOLATION WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION MID-WEEK RESULTING IN MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
THE SURGE OF COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE WEATHER SYSTEM EXITING THE AREA WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO NEAR RECORD LOWS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA (MOSTLY 20S TO LOWER 30S). REGARDLESS, THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TOP OF THE WIDESPREAD MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CAUSE AREAS OF FROST AND POTENTIALLY A HARD FREEZE, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARMER AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME, BRINGING HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 50S BY TUESDAY.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN U. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP MOIST, UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AS THE LOW CREEPS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SIERRAS. THE LOW PICKS UP A LITTLE SPEED AND REACHES WYOMING BY TOMORROW EVENING. WITH THE LOW GETTING CLOSER EXPECT HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS THE BOARD.
UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR WEEKEND WEATHER IS NOW IN NORTHERN MN. OUR REGION IS UNDERGOING WEAK RIDGING WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING FROM CA TO THE GREAT BASIN.
Toward the end of the week and into the weekend, a large low pressure system is still expected to enter and impact the western US.
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A STRONG CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY 15 TO 25 MPH. TOMORROW: A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED. GIVEN THE NORTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORIES AND FAIRLY COOL 850-HPA TEMPERATURES, HAVE GONE WITH THE COOLER SOLUTION WITH MID 60S FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL HELP MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS ESPECIALLY AS BETTER GULF MOISTURE GETS PULLED NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
SLIGHT LOOSENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND LIFTS TO THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO DIP BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY /SUSTAINED 30 MPH/. WITH ANTICIPATED LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORTH IN CENTRAL MN WHERE MORE SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR.
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U. UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WEATHER TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED AS MID-UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENS AS S/W EXITS THE GREAT LAKES AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING FOR THE BLUE RIDGE CONVECTION TO DRIFT INTO THE TRIAD REGION WHILE CONVECTION RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE MAY BRUSH OUR FAR NE COUNTIES.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TODAY MOVING INTO NORTHEAST AR LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. DRIER AND A LITTLE COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION NORTH OF THE FRONT.
349 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
328 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OVER THE REGION MON HEADING INTO TUE AS UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN PLAINS EDGES EASTWARD. ENHANCED A BIT BY A VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE FORMING OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. NOTABLE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. BUT RISK FOR SIG SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A RESPECTABLE ANTICYCLONE WILL EXTEND SEWD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTERING NORTHERN CA WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY WHILE WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BRING SLIGHT DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA WHILE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAIN NEAR THE SIERRA MADRE WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL BE CONCENTRATED DURING THE DAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST. GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN INCREASING SE WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE INTERACTS WITH LEE TROUGH ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE.
THE NEXT CLOSED LOW IN THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SERIES WAS SITUATED NEAR THE CNTRL CA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVG SLOWLY ACROSS THE TX AND OK PNHDLS TODAY AND SETTLE SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR LOOKS PLAUSIBLE LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED.
348 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2015 LOOKS LIKE THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THIS FORECAST WILL FEATURE SOMEWHAT TRANQUIL WEATHER AS THE COLD FRONT HAS EXITED TO THE SOUTH OF KENTUCKY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
304 AM MDT WED JUN 24 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LEE TROUGH DEEPENS. VEERING SHEER PROFILES IN THE 0-3KM LAYER COULD HELP SUPERCELL POTENTIAL ASSUMING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG WARM FRONT BEFORE LOW LEVELS STABILIZE. WARM FRONT STALLS NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF THIS FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN FOG/STRATUS COULD DEVELOP.
417 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2015 CURRENTLY - AN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP MID LATITUDE TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES LATER IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE AND LOWER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MIGRATE SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE KEYS AND FLORIDA STRAITS.
MAY STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR AN ISO STORM IN THE AFTERNOON BUT LOOKS LIKE RIDGING FROM THE SFC TO 850MB MAY BE STRONGER OVER THE AREA.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHWARD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BRING TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES TO MANY LOCATIONS BY THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE THU NIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL VA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO A DRY AND CALM NIGHT.
THE 10 PM EDT REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PIEDMONT THROUGH CENTRAL AL. VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED AN EAST-WEST RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE FL AND GA EAST COASTS. SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO, WHILE OTHERS FORECAST NUMEROUS STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED PIEDMONT TROUGH, POSSIBLE ORGANIZING INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL BE WEAK, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MULTICELL ORGANIZATION ALONG THE EAST-WEST TROUGH TO OUR NORTH TO SUPPORT COLD POOLS AND LOOSELY-ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE THE THE GFS FORECASTS INCREASINGLY STEEP MID LAYER LAPSE RATES AND HIGHER SBCAPE VALUES.
123 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2015 COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
328 AM PDT WED JUN 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER FAIR AND DRY MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
416 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY.
THE 3 AM EDT SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AL, WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY (FROM AN EARLIER MCS IN TN) JUST TO ITS NORTH. DEEP MOIST CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH, WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT. BY MID AFTERNOON, NEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FL SEA BREEZE FRONTS, WITH MORE STORMS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING IN GA AND AL WITH THE PEIDMONT TROUGH AND APPROACHING MCV.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING.
THE LARGER SCALE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS DEVELOPMENT PARTICULARLY WELLL BUT THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SHORT-RANGE CONVECTIVE BASED MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND WRF ARE LATCHED IN ON CURRENT TRENDS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE EASTWARD AND QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND. A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN OVER THE CONUS.
641 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2015 A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON.
603 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2015 A QUIET WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
Currently, there is an upper level ridge is centered over eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas, with an upper level inverted trough near the Big Bend area. The trough will continue to slowly drift westward today, and the ridge will expand slightly into our area. This will continue to suppress convection for our area, but with the trough moving west and ridge building in, confidence is even lower for any showers/storms in our area today.
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE UPR RIDGE. ALONG WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING WL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING OVR THE HYR TRRN BY AFTERNOON AND THE SPREADING ACRS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THRU THE EVENING HOURS.
140 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2015 A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE IN FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
400 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CONVECTION TO THE NORTH MARKING THE LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT. WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. PATTERN CHANGES COMING WITH A WETTER COOLER SCENARIO SETTING UP.
THE CONVECTION MAY VEER OFF INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW THIS FEATURE INTERACTS WITH THE BROAD 850-MB THETA-E RIDGE WHICH ADD TO UNCERTAINTY FOR ASSESSING IMPACTS.
510 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL HOLD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AS THE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN STATES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.
A more (eventually highly) amplified upper level pattern over the CONUS will evolve early in this period with a building western ridge and eastern trough.
314 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
627 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
614 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2015 A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON.
SFC WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAINS SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST CONVECTION CHANCE SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. BUT FEEL THAT POPS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER END.
434 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND BRING LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.
248 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2015 LOOKS LIKE THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THIS FORECAST WILL FEATURE SOMEWHAT TRANQUIL WEATHER AS THE COLD FRONT HAS EXITED TO THE SOUTH OF KENTUCKY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
202 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WILL MOSTLY BRING FAIR WEATHER TO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. THOUGH A PASSING WEAK TROUGH COULD TOUCH OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AREAS IN THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR RECEIVED A BIT OF WELCOME RAINFALL RELIEF OVERNIGHT.
422 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS WITH SOME SUNSHINE ALONG WITH COOLER.
121 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2015 A QUIET WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
352 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2015 Early this morning, a warm front is analyzed from Manhattan to Olathe to Osage Beach. The warm front lifting northward through the area has been slower to do so then model depiction. That, as well as morning cloud cover across the northern CWA will help keep highs in the mid to upper 80s across northern Missouri otherwise, highs will be in the low to mid 90s across the rest of the CWA.
A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA NEAR 51N/152W IS STEERING A SERIES OF WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EASTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW.
/ISSUED 411 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015/ CURRENTLY, A DEEP LAYER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA EXTENDING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA DRIFTING TO THE NORTH AS IT ALSO WEAKENS.
635 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY.
408 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2015 A QUIET WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.