Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
There is another much weaker line of showers moving east over NW GA and this appears to be associated with the actual cold front. The Hi-Res models are also showing some slight redevelopment friday as the old boundary moves back northward as a warm front through Fri evening.
626 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 A weakening area of low pressure over the Gulf of Maine will continue to drift northeast into tonight. A front accompanied by showers will move across the region Friday morning and will help to sweep out the cool and wet conditions with warmer temperatures Friday afternoon and into the weekend.
Models were consistent in moving a cold front associated with the short- wave trough from northeast Utah at 12Z to Colorado's northern ranges by midday. The front then eases south during the afternoon as the southeastward directed jet deepens the trough. Models indicated snow will diminish across the southern mountains and adjacent valleys this evening while lingering across the northern and central mountains in response to a secondary wave rotating over the area expanding the broad trough over the Rockies. A southward flowing jet over the Great Basin will keep the now closed upper level low pressure system anchored over the forecast area on Friday. As a result, cooler than normal and unsettled conditions will continue over the forecast area, especially across the north.
146 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 A cold front crosses late today and this evening.
Scattered Showers will end by late morning as a cold front over Indiana moves on to the east. Low pressure will deepen over the southern plains Friday and move towards the great lakes over the weekend.
Temperatures tonight slightly warmer with cloud cover and southeast flow.
331 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017 18Z surface data has high pressure from the northern Plains into the lower Missouri Valley with strong low pressure over the upper Great Lakes. Dew points were in the 20s and 30s from the northern Plains into the mid-Mississippi Valley with 40s and higher from the Ohio Valley into the lower Mississippi Valley. Dry conditions look to be in store for the evening hours as the high moves across the area. Cloud cover is the big unknown regarding the potential for any frost tonight in the highway 20 corridor. For now will maintain the current headlines for frost in the highway 20 corridor.
300 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 The short term period will be mostly dry, as a strong ridge of high pressure exerts its influence on the region tonight and tomorrow. The ridge will begin to break down late tomorrow afternoon, as a strong area of low pressure aloft begins to move eastward toward the Ohio valley. The ridge, however, is going to be stubborn and will not simply exit the area. The ridge should weaken just enough to allow a warm front to push through the area tomorrow, while keeping an approaching cold front from invading the area Friday night.
High pressure continues to ridge across the state and will produce a southerly component wind which will help to pump moist and warm air over the region. High pressure will continue to ridge from the Atlantic into the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend.
Issued by National Weather Service CARIBOU ME 339 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 A weakening area of low pressure over the Gulf of Maine will continue to drift northeast into tonight. A front accompanied by showers will move across the region Friday morning and will help to sweep out the cool and wet conditions with warmer temperatures Friday afternoon and into the weekend.
Ridging will build across the state into the weekend as weather systems are deflected to the north.
Much of Friday will be dry, as strong closed low sinks south to the Four Corners by evening. A strong trof approaches the region from the SW.
358 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017 The low pressure system responsible for the past two days of wintry precipitation is finally, slowly making its exit over eastern Lake Superior today into central Ontario tonight towards Hudson Bay on Friday. As the low matures and lifts north, the upper Midwest will be within the colder northwest flow resulting in occasional snow showers impacting parts of northeast Minnesota through Friday, though little additional snowfall accumulation is expected. Some sunshine Friday as the low exits with temperatures a bit warmer than today, breaking the freezing mark for most locations in the low to mid 40s outside of the Minnesota Arrowhead region. Behind the exiting system, a low amplitude ridge will build from the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.
Lots of energy dropping into the central Rockies cutting out a powerful upper trough across our region. Much of the precipitation will be over by Friday evening as wind fields in the lower levels turn more southeasterly Other areas may see a couple of inches of wet snow overnight into Friday.
227 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017 A broad upper trough is over most of the country with the base of the trough over southeast New Mexico and West Texas. Strong winds at the base of the trough are mixing downward to the surface across the area. A High Wind Warning is in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains and Wind Advisories are in effect for the southeast New Mexico plains, central and western portions of the Permian Basin, Van Horn and the Highway 54 Corridor, Davis Mountains, and the Upper Trans Pecos for today. The upper trough digs southward over the Intermountain West on Friday.
The short term period will be mostly dry, as a strong ridge of high pressure exerts its influence on the region tonight and tomorrow. The ridge will begin to break down late tomorrow afternoon, as a strong area of low pressure aloft begins to move eastward toward the Ohio valley. The ridge, however, is going to be stubborn and will not simply exit the area. The ridge should weaken just enough to allow a warm front to push through the area tomorrow, while keeping an approaching cold front from invading the area Friday night.
122 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 Conditions will improve to VFR at CHA and TYS this afternoon as a cold front shifts convection eastward.
Behind the cold front this evening, we will continue to see clearing skies from west to east as dry air filters in. Ridging begins to build back in on Friday with a southerly flow and temperatures about 10 degrees warmer than Thursday. At the surface, a warm front will also move north across the area with weak isentropic lift leading to some mid-level clouds on Friday afternoon. High pressure will maintain control through much of the weekend, resulting in a summer- like pattern with very warm temperatures.
300 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017 The mid afternoon surface map shows strong 991 mb low pressure over ne Lake Superior with cold front extending through western Ohio into central KY/TN. Aloft a 538 dm 500 mb low was over ne MN into western Lake Superior with a strong upper level trof over the Midwest.
Expect to see the low stratus deck in place at all of the terminals by 08z with prevailing ceilings ranging from 1000 to 2000 feet.
A weak low pressure system over the region will exit late tonight, and will be followed by high pressure.
For tonight, a ridge of high pressure builds in from southwest to northeast for clearing skies allowing for good radiational cooling given light airflow. Depending on how much decoupling takes place, will likely see some freezing temperatures across the area. Otherwise, looks a bit warmer for highs with readings in the upper 40s/lower 50s.
An upper level low sits over southwestern Ontario with broad troughing extending over the central U. Upper level ridging continues to hold over the Florida peninsula and will further build through the short term period. On the surface, an area of low pressure just north of the Great Lakes extends a cold front over the eastern Great Lakes region and further southward along the Appalachian mountain chain. The trailing edge of this front dissipates over southern Georgia/northern Florida as high pressure continues to ridge across the peninsula through the end of the week and into the weekend. Strong mid-level ridge will keep us hot and dry into the weekend.
219 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 A weak cold front crosses the area from the west tonight.
355 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017 (Tonight and Friday) Expect gusty south to southwest winds to slowly decrease through the overnight hours with overnight low temperatures in the low to mid 60s. A weak cold front will move into the Big Country during the morning hours, with the the only effect being a wind shift to the north at 5 to 10 mph. Highs will generally be in the low to mid 90s, with a few locations approaching the upper 90s.
356 PM MDT Thu Apr 27 2017 A broad upper level trough remains situated over the Rocky Mountain region this afternoon which has kept plenty of clouds and showers hanging around the area. The cold front is almost entirely out of our forecast area with a cold air mass settling in its wake. On Friday, the amplification of a ridge of high pressure off the west coast will finally swing the base of the trough through our CWA. In response to the cold front, overnight lows tonight will be quite chilly with many locations dropping below freezing.
On Friday, expect another round of gusty winds as a cold front moves south through the state.
148 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 Low pressure continues to move into Canada allowing the clouds we had today to break up some overnight, but the continuing southerly flow will usher in another chance for rain Friday afternoon.
Peak heating hours will offer the best chances for storm coverage, but severe weather chances look to be on the low side.
Upper trof over the Rockies will lift northeast toward southern Canada on Friday and Friday night. That said the models do maintain that the highest instability/LLM will reside over the eastern CWA, but somewhat displaced from any forcing or shear.
721 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 A weak cold front will approach from the northwest tonight and move into the area Friday.
It is the high rainfall intensities that can accompany summer convection that can really cause problems. A mild night is forecast, with lows in the mid 30s and 40s for the high elevations, and in the 50s for the eastern plains.
An upper level trough over the southern Rockies will get cut off from the flow and it will linger there through the weekend. There will be several upper level short wave troughs that will move east and northeast out of this parent trough. These short wave troughs will move across the panhandles through this weekend bringing periodic chances of showers and thunderstorms.
1226 AM EDT Fri Jun 2 2017 A weak cold front will approach from the northwest tonight and move into the area Friday.
Showers and thunderstorms currently exiting our CWA to the east as short wave trough axis moves across our Idaho zones. Clearing in Idaho this evening, then sunny and warmer in all areas Friday as flat short wave ridge comes in from the Pacific.
A zonal flow will persist aloft and a deep southeasterly fetch in the lower troposphere is going nowhere. Lows overnight in the lower to mid 70s and highs tomorrow in the mid 80s.
Overnight temperatures will drop into the lower 70s along the Gulf coast and interior with temps in the upper 70s along the east coast.
An upper level ridge across the plains and south winds across the area have allowed temperatures to warm this afternoon. There is a weak warm front that has lifted north across much of the forecast area. The first question is whether there will be thunderstorms that develop near the warm front as it moves to the north. Friday, the ridge starts to move to the east and an upper level wave approaches the forecast area.
An upper level trough has moved into Idaho late this afternoon and as it does so, showers and thunderstorms have moved east as well.
1259 AM EDT Fri Jun 2 2017 High pressure today for bright and sunny skies.
Otherwise, high pressure over the Ohio Valley will provide us with mostly clear skies, pleasant temperatures, and light winds through the short term.
1009 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 High pressure crosses through Friday.
940 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 A cold front will push east of the region tonight.
846 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 High pressure will build across the region tonight.
Ridge axis which has brought the hot temperatures today has moved to the Montana Dakota border allowing southwest flow aloft to strengthen behind it. Isolated high based thunderstorms this evening will be wind gust producers ahead of a cold front which will move through the region later this evening. Temperatures will be knocked down a few degrees and isolated activity expected over the mountains but no precipitation for the lower elevations.
Have seen a quick downward trend in the intensity of these over the past half an hour or so, and would expect this to continue as high pressure and subsequently drier air build south into the Ohio Valley. Dry conditions will prevail tonight through Friday as an upper level low finally moves east across Quebec toward the St. This will gradually push surface ridging farther south into eastern Kentucky as a weak convergence boundary gets shunted into Tennessee. A ridge valley temperature split will be in the offing with valleys cooling into the low 50s while ridges remain in the mid 50s. Another ridge valley temperature split will set up for Friday night as patchy valley fog materializes once again.
High pressure will remain in control of the weather tonight into Friday, resulting in a continuation of dry conditions through the period. High temperatures on Friday will be a degree or two warmer than today. generally reaching the lower to middle 80s. As high pressure shifts toward the East Coast, a warm front will lift northward through the region by late Friday.
Large area of high pressure remains over the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Great Lakes region this afternoon. Mostly sunny skies thru most of Friday will boost temps into the upper 60s across Eastern Upper Michigan and into the low to mid 70s across much of Northern Lower Michigan.
Winds will become light and variable, with temps falling into the lower to mid 70s.
Figuring out PoPs the next several days is certainly the biggest forecast challenge as one trough exits to the north, another.
Clouds from this system may clip far northeast CWA overnight, but in general mostly clear conditions should prevail due to upstream ridging and subsidence and dry atmosphere over the area. Upstream long wave ridging remains over the area on Friday as low level winds begin to back to the south to southwest upstream. Temps should be a few degrees warmer most areas on Friday.
720 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017 Mainly clear skies tonight as a weak upper ridge over the Northern and Central Plains. An upper trough will advance toward the high plains Friday afternoon with height falls and steepening lapse rates.
High pressure over Indiana will move slowly east and models now indicate dry weather will persist through Friday night.
High pressure over Upper Ohio Valley Friday. Clouds from this system may clip far northeast CWA overnight, but in general mostly clear conditions should prevail due to upstream ridging and subsidence and dry atmosphere over the area. Upstream long wave ridging remains over the area on Friday as low level winds begin to back to the south to southwest upstream. Temps should be a few degrees warmer most areas on Friday.
735 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 High pressure will remain across the area through Friday yielding fair weather with seasonable temperatures.
An upper level low that has formed near the Panhandle of Texas today has brought clouds and rain across the region, this feature will move off to the northeast while increasing low clouds overnight. Tomorrow will be similar as today with rain starting early Friday and remaining trough the evening hours. Another area of low pressure will form to the west of the area creating the same conditions experienced today. The main feature that will kick all this unsettled weather out of the ArklaTex region is an upper level low pressure system that is moving to the east out of Baja California.
Lowered overnight low temperatures a degree or two as we are trending slightly cooler than previously forecast. High pressure will prevail through the forecast period, with light mainly east to northeast sfc winds below 10 kts.
708 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 A wave aloft will carry a pattern of mid and high clouds from central Canada over lower Michigan tonight while diffuse high pressure remains in control of surface conditions. Southeast Michigan remains on the fringe of cyclonic NW flow this afternoon as high pressure gradually builds in from the west at the surface. Cyclonic flow aloft will persist through Friday against a background of gradually rising heights as the closed low shifts east. Inland thermal troughing will likely favor some degree of agitated cu development, though dry conditions and weak forcing aloft will again limit shower potential.
1029 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 High pressure will remain across the region tonight into Friday.
Quick and dirty surface analysis still shows a weak coastal trough about 30-40 miles offshore that may push towards the coast late tonight.
1021 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 A weak cold front will approach from the northwest tonight and move into the area Friday.
An upper level trough will be moving out over the Front Range of the Rockies on Friday afternoon.
It has been fighting a lot of dry air and a large area of high pressure, and therefore have dropped areal coverage in pops as it should still struggle to push northeast through the state tonight. Otherwise warmer air to move in for Friday with highs expected to push into the mid to upper 80s.
Cold front has just about caught up to the pre-frontal surface trof located near a Miles City to Broadus line. Should see precipitation diminish around sunrise tomorrow morning with a cooler day in store. Ridge axis which has brought the hot temperatures today has moved to the Montana Dakota border allowing southwest flow aloft to strengthen behind it. Isolated high based thunderstorms this evening will be wind gust producers ahead of a cold front which will move through the region later this evening. Temperatures will be knocked down a few degrees and isolated activity expected over the mountains but no precipitation for the lower elevations.
/issued 244 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017/ Short term (Now through Friday night): Water vapor satellite loops and upper air analysis indicate a weak disturbance over Northeast TX with a stronger upper level low pressure area moving into NW Mexico within a split flow pattern over the Southern U. Also, mid/upper level high pressure ridge remains over the SE Atlantic extending west across the Gulf of Mexico. However, a weak surface pressure trough analyzed over the NW and Northern Gulf will provide a light easterly surface to 700mb flow which providing increasing low level moisture and is conducive for sea breeze enhancement.
544 PM MDT Thu Jun 1 2017 A ridge aloft remains in place over the central and northern high plains regions during the remainder of today and tonight with a trough moving into the back side of the ridge during the day on Friday. Increased near surface instabilities are coexistent with the higher dewpoints this afternoon and evening. The ridge aloft is keeping this area of instability capped through mid day with no convective elements showing up on radar so far early this afternoon. Expect scattered storms to initiate during the afternoon in the vicinity of the eastern Colorado border area and spread eastward across the forecast area through the late afternoon and early evening as the surface and upper trough progress eastward.
621 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017 Warm front continues to lift northeastward into northeast Missouri this afternoon, while a weak upper wave tracking out of northeast KS is interacting with a weakly unstable environment to the southwest of the front. The highest instability is mainly north of the Missouri River where an agitated cumulus field is developing, and this will remain the favored location for scattered thunderstorms through the late afternoon as the wave passes through. There's a small chance that precipitation could redevelop late tonight in the vicinity of a lingering weak upper level boundary over northern and central Missouri, but most areas should stay dry into Friday as upper level ridging builds in overhead.
728 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 High pressure crosses through Friday.
A cold front has triggered a few showers and thunderstorms toward the northern Nevada border. High pressure strengthens over the southwest and brings warm dry weather for the weekend.
808 PM MDT Thu Jun 1 2017 Not much to change as sct showers and a few storms will linger over the higher terrain thru midnight. there is an upper level trof over the great basin which will slowly move over Eastern Colorado during the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures will be a few degrees cooler on Friday as the trof moves across the area.
Clouds will linger through the night, leading to slightly warmer temperatures tonight, in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. 925mb temperatures could be a degree or so warmer tomorrow. We should warm some, if there is some clearing in the clouds, we could warm into the low-mid 80s. Didn't go as warm as some guidance due to clouds/storms but still warmer than today.
As for temps, lows tonight should generally be around seasonal values in the low to mid 60s, upper 50s Cumberland Plateau Region. Building sfc/upper level ridging influences coming out of the upper midwest will result in ptcldy to moclr skies Tue thru Thu. As for temps, highs on Sun and Mon will generally be in the low to mid 80s, upper 70s Cumberland Plateau Region. After the frontal passage on Mon and as sfc/upper level ridging influences build out of the upper Midwest, a slight CAA scenario will develop across the mid state region Tue into Wed. As ridging influences finally shift eastward, highs and lows for Thu and Thu night will return back to seasonal normal values.
18Z surface data has high pressure over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A warm front ran from western South Dakota into the Ohio Valley. Given the dryness of the air, overnight lows could end up being a bit cooler than forecast.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 89 65 88 / 10 10 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 85 61 86 / 10 10 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 60 87 61 86 / 10 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 83 55 81 / 10 10 10 10.
A cold front will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms through this evening across western and central Montana. Breezy and slightly cooler conditions are then expected for Friday.
Current temperatures were in the low to mid 80s with light east through south winds.
Did bump up winds during the day tomorrow with a mix of hires model guidance as mixing ahead of the approaching cold front should be efficient in helping winds be on the high side of guidance. Warm advection continues with thermal ridge axis over the western fa by evening. With dewpoints expected to climb into the lower 60s and precipitable h20 values in excess of an inch sufficient instability and moisture available. Models are in pretty good agreement with timing the arrival of a cold front (and the best storm chances) into the western forecast area around 00z.
Updated temperatures overnight to account for cooler current temperatures, and brought high temperatures on Friday down a little.
This will occur as diffuse high pressure remains in control of surface conditions. Southeast Michigan remains on the fringe of cyclonic NW flow this afternoon as high pressure gradually builds in from the west at the surface. Cyclonic flow aloft will persist through Friday against a background of gradually rising heights as the closed low shifts east. Inland thermal troughing will likely favor some degree of agitated cu development, though dry conditions and weak forcing aloft will again limit shower potential.
Low temperatures will range in the low 70s to upper 60s.
Temperatures will once again rise a few more degrees than today with readings Friday afternoon in the low to mid 80s in Wisconsin, and east central Minnesota, to around 90 in west central Minnesota.
Temperatures will be cooler Friday, but still a few degrees above normal.