Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
HARDLY ANY CHANGE TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE BASE OF THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
335 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
250 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015 MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
THE LOW CONVECTION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT NT AS WELL.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA PUMPING IN HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. EARLY MORNING MID/HIGH CLOUDS STUNTED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE IN THE MID/LOWER VALLEY SO ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS DOWN AND SHAVED A DEGREE OF THE HIGHS. UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS SATURDAY AND BEING REPLACED BY EXPANDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND LOWER PWATS LEADING TO LOWER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER AS WELL WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 IN THE FAR WEST TO MID 90S IN THE LOWER VALLEY.
This feature will push a cold front into northwest Kansas by evening. Highs look to be in the low to mid 90s with south winds of 15 to 25 mph ahead of the cold front. This feature will help push a cold front through the area late afternoon into Saturday night shifting winds to more of a northeasterly direction.
415 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AIR INTO THE WEEKEND.
125 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE COOLER AND DRIER AIR THROUGH TODAY AND SATURDAY.
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS UPSTREAM OF THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE LOWER LEVELS ARE FAIRLY DRY HOWEVER.
JOAQUIN AND THE UPPER LOW. WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER FOR MAX TEMP ON MONDAY. RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS TOPPING OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 60 81 58 80 / 10 10 10 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 58 81 57 78 / 10 10 10 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 58 82 56 78 / 10 10 10 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 55 78 50 76 / 20 10 10 0.
255 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER TO THE MIDSOUTH WILL FINALLY BEGIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING AND MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. HAVE WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES DUE TO HIGHS BEING COOLER THAN EXPECTED. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
132 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND A DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
316 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
313 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND A DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
The upper low centered over norther FL/southern GA early this morning will continue to slowly move eastward through the short term period. As this feature shifts eastward, ridging will begin to build in aloft from the west over the lower Ohio Valley.
311 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015 SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS CONTINUED SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. THIS GOOD FETCH OF ELEVATED PACIFIC MOISTURE WAS OCCURRING WELL EAST OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR LOS ANGELES CALIFORNIA CURRENTLY. DRY AIR WAS STILL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED RIDGING AND NORTHERLY FLOW WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE DETACHED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.
1248 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND WELL WEST INTO THE NORTHLAND KEEPING THE REGION DRY. THE CLOUDS HAVE NOT BEEN REAL THICK AS THEY FIRST MOVE IN AND TEMPS HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND FREEZING OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE HIGH WILL LOSE SOME ITS INFLUENCE TODAY AS IT DRIFTS EAST. THE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND WE HAVE LOW POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE FIFTIES AND BE A BIT WARMER MONDAY WITH MID FIFTIES TO LOWER SIXTIES.
/ISSUED 1121 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015/ CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVEN/T BUDGED AT ALL THIS MORNING. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OUT WEST. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN WARMER. HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOW 80S. A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE WEST DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS BY MIDWEEK WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MONDAY WITH WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ALOFT.
351 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL BE LGT/VRB THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
ZCZC CLEWRKAFD ALL TTAA00 KILN 041510 ZCZC CLEWRKAFD ALL TTAA00 KILN 032003 MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AT MIDWEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL BE OBSERVED WITH HIGHS A LTL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.
1259 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1023 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015/ UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO MOVE MORE SOUTH THAN EAST THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS A NARROW SWATH EXTENDING FROM BRIDGEPORT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CULLMAN AREA. LEFT CHANCE POP IN NORTHWARD UP TO A LINE FROM NEAR BRIDGEPORT TO HUNTSVILLE AND INTO THE COURTLAND AREA. BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER FROM BRIDGEPORT TO CULLMAN.
630 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY. MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL BE LGT/VRB THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
322 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND STALL AS JOAQUIN TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST.
WELL AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW THAT WILL DRIFT SE INTO SRN CA. THIS LOW HAS ALREADY SHIFTED THE SUBTROPICAL JET E ACROSS MX INTO ERN NM/MUCH OF W TX. WITH THE CLOSED LOW OVER NRN FLA SHIFTING E INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. AND UPPER RIDGING OVER TX AMPLIFYING N INTO THE ARK-LA-TEX AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. DID TONE DOWN MAX TEMPS A BIT MONDAY /FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST/ AS THE LOW AND ELEVATED CLOUD COVER MAY HANG ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
159 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015 A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME OUR EVENTUAL WEATHER-MAKER LATER THIS WEEK. AHEAD OF THE LOW SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL AT TIMES AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
1245 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015 THE 07Z MSL ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH FROM A LOW IN NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH EASTERN WYOMING INTO CENTRAL COLORADO.
133 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA, OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS STABLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
115 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND A DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
255 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 AN UPPER-LEVEL COMPOSITE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS AN EXPANSIVE AND DEEP CYCLONE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA.
A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH MONDAY WITH ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUING. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS KEEPING THE CONVECTION TOO SHORT TO TAP INTO IT. THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH MOISTURE TRANSITIONING EAST TOO. THE MID- LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SIT OFF THE EASTERN SEA BOARD OF THE UNITED STATES.
223 PM PDT SUN OCT 4 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH MONDAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRYING CONDITIONS STARTING MONDAY NIGHT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK. CURRENTLY THE UPPER LOW IS LOCATED EAST OF POINT CONCEPTION.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA.
ID SITS IN THE COL BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW IN SE ALBERTA AND A DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN CA COAST. THE CA UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NV MON NIGHT. CONTINUING THRU THE DAY UNTIL THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND DROPS SOUTH INTO AZ TUE EVE. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS UP OVER THE WEST ON WED RESULTING IN DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. GFS STILL TRIES TO BRING A MINOR WAVE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO ID ON THU. THE RIDGE REESTABLISHES DOMINANCE THU NIGHT FOR DRY AND WARM THRU SUNDAY MORN. THE RIDGE THEN BREAKS DOWN TO ZONAL FLOW.
A STRONG RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN GRADUALLY EXPAND EASTWARD AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN SETTING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS FINALLY WEAKENS AND MOVES OFFSHORE. WITH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EXPECTED. AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES FIRM CONTROL OF AREA WEATHER.
MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE NORTHWEST GULF AND A FLAT SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL EXTEND QUIET AVIATION CONDITIONS ANOTHER 24 HOURS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS REGION. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. RANGING FROM THE MID 80S ALONG THE BEACHES TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE WEST. EXCEPT FOR THE LOW 70S NEAR THE COAST.
211 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
151 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL BUILD SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST TODAY THROUGH THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
A warming trend starts tomorrow and lasts into midweek as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Northern Rockies.
121 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM WESTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MID WEEK.
WITH A BLOCKING RIDGE OVERHEAD AND A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE. SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. BUT THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN DENSITY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY MOVES TO OUR EAST. THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW ON THE WEST COAST.
357 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
AN AREA OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS IS EVIDENT IN VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVED CIG HEIGHTS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOL WEATHER SLIDES EASTWARD. /ISSUED 404 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015/ UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN CAUSING THE COOL AND DAMP WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IS FORECAST TO FINALLY SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. AND ALLOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD IN HERE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HEIGHT RISES ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE.
Stratus has hit a brick wall just west of the Highway 65 corridor. Another day of below normal temperatures will be noted across the region due to the continued influence of the cyclonic flow around the very slow moving southeast US upper low.
STATOCU FINALLY MIXING OUT WEST OF THE RIDGES AS EASTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN. AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BEGINS TO WANE. WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE RIDGES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE RIDGES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DRY AND MILD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 70S FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTH AND WEST AS MID LEVEL RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SHUNT EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY MONDAY.
The upper low is nearing the NE Florida coast, but persistent low level N-NW flow is keeping the cool airmass in place, and with a rather strong inversion at 850 mb, the extensive stratus deck has been slow to thin. Model guidance finally shows the pattern starting to move overnight with the upper low moving into the Western Atlantic and the low level moisture gradually starting to decrease.
DESPITE THE POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS KEEPING THE CONVECTION TOO SHORT TO TAP INTO IT. THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTION WILL CONINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH MOISTURE TRANSITIONING EAST TOO. THE MID- LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SIT OFF THE EASTERN SEA BOARD OF THE UNITED STATES.
659 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
526 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. WITH A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE EXERTING IT/S INFLUENCE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. BUT HALT THERE SINCE MOS GUIDANCE IS COOLER AND THE COLD AIR IS RATHER DENSE/SHALLOW. A WEAK TROUGH AND A FEW CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE IN THE DAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT DROPS SE ON WED.
SOME MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION (ISENTROPIC ASCENT) WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITHIN THIS LOW STRATUS LAYER ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY. ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS IN WHICH SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS TRY TO DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY. THIS COULD PUT PORTIONS OF MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S GIVEN 925 MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO THE MID TEENS C. AREAS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS MAY AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S.
246 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. WITH A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE EXERTING IT/S INFLUENCE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. BUT HALT THERE SINCE MOS GUIDANCE IS COOLER AND THE COLD AIR IS RATHER DENSE/SHALLOW. A WEAK TROUGH AND A FEW CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE IN THE DAY. GEFS ENSEMBLE PLUMES ALONG WITH DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE MAJORITY IF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
246 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
350 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1004MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND AN ASSOCIATED PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN GOLDEN AS HIGH TEMPS REMAINED COOLER THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY AND TODAY.
There are quite a few mid and upper level clouds across the area, and scattered light showers to the west of our area, but with dry air in the lower levels here, expect them to remain west. With this in mind and increased cloud cover from the approaching system, afternoon high temperatures will be a few degrees cooler, generally in the 80 to 85 degree range.
319 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. WITH A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE EXERTING IT/S INFLUENCE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. BUT HALT THERE SINCE MOS GUIDANCE IS COOLER AND THE COLD AIR IS RATHER DENSE/SHALLOW. A WEAK TROUGH AND A FEW CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE IN THE DAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT DROPS SE ON WED.
322 PM PDT SUN OCT 4 2015 After yesterday's storm, most of NorCal is a little cooler (except for Redding/Red Bluff vicinity) and winds are trending lighter.
259 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL BE LGT/VRB THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
42 NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR ONGOING FORECAST WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS DOMINATING SENSIBLE WEATHER. BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EASTERN COUNTIES AS CLOUDS WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. HUFFMAN CONTINUED DRY & PLEASANT WX EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH RIDGING IN CONTROL. NEXT WEST COAST TROF. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION & MOVEMENT OF THE TROF BEYOND THURS. 47 LIGHT/MODERATE NE WINDS TO PREVAIL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL BE BREAKING DOWN BY TUES AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM (DEEPENING AROUND THE CALI BAJA) BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST.
ZCZC CLEWRKAFD ALL TTAA00 KILN 041510 MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AT MIDWEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL BE OBSERVED WITH HIGHS A LTL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.
230 PM PDT SUN OCT 4 2015 A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER.
Right now, a slug of moisture stemming from the remnants of HRCN "MARTY" is acting in concert with several minor short wave troughs embedded in this moist flow to produce a large area of rain.
235 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015 Another nice autumn day out there this afternoon as ridging prevails aloft and at the surface. and from the east at the lower levels. We should stay dry with ridging aloft thru midweek.
322 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015 Pattern across the USA today remains rather amplified, but also a bit muddled as a deep trough across the western CONUS competes to dominate the general flow aloft with a ridge over the East Coast that has with it a couple of cutoff low spinning around under it. Otherwise, as the work week progresses the trough to our west is expected to cutoff and then slowly move east out of the Four Corners over the later half of the week. This will provide the region with a warming trend over the next several days as southerly winds return to the Lower Missouri River Valley.
1242 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
GIVEN THE CURRENT MID CLOUD EXTENT AND VEERING LLJ, I THINK THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED- WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS EXISTS THIS MORNING AT LEAST DOWN TO THE I-70 CORRIDOR WHICH IS JUST NORTH OF THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOUDS, CONVECTION AND LIFTING WARM FRONT, WARMING LOW AND MID LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MORE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME IN JULY.
Center of upper ridge has moved west of the area this morning. However, with northerly low-level flow and 850mb temperatures about a degree warmer than yesterday, no relief from the heat is expected. With the ridge sliding west and a weak lee trough extending into central Georgia this afternoon, should see a slight uptick in convective coverage this afternoon, especially over the eastern half of the forecast area.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WITH SOUTHWEST MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES, WE WILL SEE A PERSISTENCE OF THE LEESIDE TROUGH IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE, LEADING TO CONTINUED STRONG DIURNAL WINDS, PARTICULARLY IN THE 18-00Z TIME FRAME. DEWPOINTS WILL DECREASE, ESPECIALLY OUT WEST, DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. A WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION ALONG THE LEE TROUGH WILL BE UP ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS.
1048 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES OVER NY AND PA INTO SUNDAY.
THIS WILL BE UNLIKELY DUE TO A STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL CAP BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL AS PREVIOUSLY STATED. CANT RULE OUT A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES BUT THE HIGH FREEZING LEVEL MAKES THAT PRETTY DOUBTFUL.
728 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
920 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID OHIO VALLEY.
CANT RULE OUT A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES BUT THE HIGH FREEZING LEVEL MAKES THAT PRETTY DOUBTFUL.
735 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
746 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMER EACH DAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.
1040 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE UPPER RIDGE HAD SPREAD FARTHER WEST FROM EVENING OBSERVATIONS. THIS HIGHER MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND TODAY AND SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME ISO TO WIDELY SCT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AT 500MB SHOWS 594/595 DM RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF INCLUDING SE TX. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND AND MOVE OVER MUCH OF TX AND S PLAINS BY SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE S PLAINS AND TX FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.
ALSO OF NOTE IS INCREASING FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. WITH GENERAL UPPER TROUGHING OVER OUR AREA TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL TODAY BUT SUNDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS WARMER AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES STRONGER SWLY.
/ISSUED 333 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015/ CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS DRIFTING WEST AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR NW FLOW TO AFFECT THE AREA. A THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO S GA AREA WILL AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THAT AREA AS WELL. THINGS SEEM TO FAVOR MAINLY N GA WITH THE HIGHEST AFTERNOON POPS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON SUNDAY AND THIS IS WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST WITH NW UPPER FLOW CONTINUING.
UPPER RIDGING STILL GENERALLY ACROSS THE SE STATES THIS MORNING. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 93 72 93 74 / 20 10 30 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 90 70 89 71 / 20 10 40 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 90 71 89 71 / 20 10 40 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 87 65 85 68 / 30 20 40 40.
745 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 AVIATION FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY BUT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
949 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA TODAY.
AN ELONGATED TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE ARCHIPELAGO OF CUBA. A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS DRAPED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WITH OUR REGION LYING ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF A DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST. ISOLATED 20 PERCENT POPS WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OFF IN THE LOWER 90S SEEMS ON TRACK.
1249 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID OHIO VALLEY.