Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 91 69 88 68 / 30 20 30 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 89 68 85 67 / 40 20 40 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 90 68 86 67 / 30 20 30 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 85 63 84 64 / 50 20 30 20.
/ISSUED 425 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015/ Not much change in the sensible weather over the next couple of days as upper ridge remains over the area.
1101 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 THIS LABOR DAY WEEKEND WILL BE HOT AND HUMID WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S TODAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SUPPORT THE RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS SHIFTING EASTWARD AND ALIGNS WELL WITH THE CURRENT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. SO IT APPEARS THAT THE VORTEX WILL LINGER FOR THE DAY BEFORE BEING SHEARED APART OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS SLIGHTLY AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND PESKY CUTOFF LOW FINALLY DISSIPATES.
646 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA.
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES TODAY WITH MORE DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN. WITH 500 MB RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE REGION AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE RGV AIRPORTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 500 MB RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE RGV THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A MORE SUBSIDENT ATMS TO PREVAIL. AS THE RIDGING BUILDS THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ALLOWING FOR A SLOW WARMUP IN TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAV AND ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE SETS ARE COMING IN A BIT WARMER VERSUS THE NAM NUMBERS. WILL GO CLOSER TO THE WARMER MODEL SETS AS THE NAM HIGH TEMPS LOOK A LITTLE BIT UNREALISTIC CONSIDERING RECENT TEMP TRENDS.
716 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THE NEXT REAL CHANCE FOR RAIN WON'T BE UNTIL MID-WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
1223 PM MDT SAT SEP 5 2015 THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN UINTA BASIN AND NORTHWEST COLORADO DURING THE NIGHT STALLING NORTH OF THE TAVAPUTS AND ROAN PLATEAUS AND THE FLAT TOP MOUNTAINS. THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY WILL BRING A FEW ADDITIONAL DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE NORTH SUNDAY.
1029 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW WEAK BUT HOT HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
957 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW WEAK BUT HOT HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
BEFORE A PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
1024 AM PDT SAT SEP 5 2015 A low pressure system will bring widespread rain and much cooler temperatures to the Idaho Panhandle and portions of Eastern Washington Saturday.
1038 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THE NEXT REAL CHANCE FOR RAIN WON'T BE UNTIL MID-WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
Short range models indicate a strong upper level trough of low pressure digging southeast out of the Pacific Northwest into the Four Corners Region by mid-day Monday. Although NAM/GFS model soundings indicate very little in the way of instability present, a few showers may develop across central Kansas and eastern portions of southwest Kansas tonight as a series of H5 vort maxima begin to eject out of the approaching trough axis in the Desert Southwest and lifting northeast into the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma. Assisting dynamic support aloft will be a slowly intensifying southwest flow as a strong upper level jet transitioning through the trough axis, begins to nose northeastward into the high plains. Increasing surface dewpoints due to moisture advection and redeveloping cloud cover tonight will result in warmer low temperatures.
1236 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK.
1150 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015 High pressure extending from the Mid-Atlantic states to the western Gulf of Mexico continues to dominate the weather across central Illinois this morning. Southerly winds between a departing area of high pressure, and a developing storm system, will help support another day with well above normal temperatures across central and southeast Illinois. Deepening upper trough just offshore of the West Coast early this morning. In the southern branch of the jet stream, a pronounced curl with an upper low was located over southern Utah. While this low will lift northeast into the Dakotas, moisture is already surging northward ahead of a trough just west of the Baja California peninsula. This moisture should rapidly surge northeast tonight as a significant upper low forms near Las Vegas within the deep trough.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT.
249 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AIR OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER NICE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT. BUT VALLEYS WILL BE A TAD WARMER ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S TONIGHT. WHILE RIDGES HOLD IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER FROM SUNDAY'SREADINGS WITH LOW TO MID 60S EXPECTED. CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE WILL LIMIT THE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT WITH VALLEYS AND RIDGES NOT SHOWING AS MUCH SEPARATION ON TEMPS. SHOULD ALSO BE MILDER WITH VALLEYS ONLY DIPPING INTO THE 30S AND RIDGES HOLDING IN THE 40S. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
116 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST AND LATEST MODELS BRING PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH ERN OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND WRN IDAHO THIS EVENING. AND THE UPPER TROUGH SHOWS SIGNS OF CLOSING OFF A LOW WELL TO OUR SOUTH IN NRN ARIZONA. THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COLD FRONT WILL REACH KBNO AROUND 21Z. CLOUDINESS OVER OREGON WILL SPREAD ACROSS IDAHO AS A COLD FRONT ALONG THE COAST CROSSES SE OREGON 2-4 PM PST AND SW IDAHO THIS EVENING.
FULL LATITUDE NORTH AMERICAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.
Mostly sunny skies and current temperatures in the lower and mid 60s are making for a pleasant weather afternoon across our forecast area. As high pressure moves off to our east tonight, low-level southerly flow will begin to develop, which will become well- established over the next few days.
1148 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015 THE NAM AND RAP INDICATE COOLER MORE MOIST 850MB AIR WILL INVADE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 TODAY AND HOLD HIGHS TO AROUND 60F. AREAS WEST RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ON MONDAY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. ONE MORE CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW.
WINDS WILL BE BTWN 15 TO 25 KTS DURING THE TAF PERIOD AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH STRENGTHENS TO THE WEST OF THE PANHANDLE REGION.
309 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY.
1145 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015 A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE AFFECTING AREA TAF LOCATIONS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
208 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TONIGHT. A FEW BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.
1222 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MONDAY.
317 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON HAS PROVIDED CLEAR SKIES TO MOST OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST AND CAUSES THE UPPER FLOW TO BACK TO SOUTHERLY.
1207 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY PROVIDING SUNNY CONDITIONS AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THANKS TO RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WITH THE LOWERING BASES EXPECTING IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME FRAME FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
1148 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1019 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH IN NW ALABAMA IS ADVECTING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION AS A RESULT. THUS LOWERED DEWPOINTS THERE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE (OVER THE SRN PLAINS) TO MOVE TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE TEMPERATURES WARMER OVERNIGHT AND MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE 40S. COOLER LOCATIONS. BUT THE DURATION OF THE LOWER RH VALUES WILL BE SHORT. /ISSUED 340 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015/ UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFIES TO OUR NORTHEAST. PUTTING CENTRAL ALABAMA IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING TROUGH/CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
401 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A DEEP TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SUNRISE AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED. THANKS TO SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS ONCE AGAIN.
320 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015 A LITTLE WARMER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER FLORIDA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ALOFT WE WILL SEE A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS CLIMBING BACK TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST FROM AROUND TAMPA BAY SOUTH WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH WED.
1246 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
938 AM PST SUN NOV 15 2015 A cold front will bring more strong and gusty winds along with rain and mountain snow showers today into the evening.
1159 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. PREV DISC: LOW PRESSURE WL BE DEPARTING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TDA. UPR LVL TROF WL BE PASSING NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND WL LKLY RESULT IN MORE CLDS ACRS THE NORTH BUT NOTHING IN THE WAY OF PCPN. LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. MILD TEMPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING WILL BE THE HIGHS FOR THE DAY AS TEMPS WILL FALL WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
1208 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES TODAY. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PEAK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
1127 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING ACROSS SE TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. /ISSUED 515 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS SETX THIS MORNING. AS THE VIGOROUS TROUGH MOVES INTO CA/NV/AZ TONIGHT EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL START TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD TRAVERSE THE AREA BETWEEN 9 AM AND 2 PM.
149 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MONDAY.
BUT BELIEVE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL CONTINE TO HOLD FIRM UNTIL MORE APPRECIABLE MOISTURE ADVECTION CAN SET UP MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TODAY AND TONIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF LONGWAVES OVER NOAM IS UNDERWAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH PRESSURE AGAINST A BACKGROUND OF BUILDING HEIGHTS SUPPORTS THE ONGOING FLOOD OF WARM ADVECTION INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. 5KM LAYER MOISTURE PLOT SUGGESTS LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO CONSOLIDATE NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE SUCH THAT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE MAY BE POSSIBLE INVOF LAKE HURON.
235 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A DEEP TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
1148 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER ALL OF THE EASTERN U. A DEEP TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AND SWING EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH A COUPLE DEGREES WARMING AFTER THAT AS WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE ONSHORE DIRECTION AND WARMER/MORE HUMID AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF.
A very active week of wintry weather ahead for the Northern FIRST WEATHER SYSTEM AND IMPACTS: A cold front is currently moving across the Pacific Northwest and headed for central Idaho and western Montana. This system is expected to bring snow to much of central Idaho with an inch or two at lower elevations such as Grangeville, and around 6 inches in the higher terrain above Grangeville. Some sunshine and warmer temperatures today have let the road surfaces warm up, which may cause the snow to melt at first and then refreeze later, causing very icy conditions on roadways. In any case, the accumulations here should be much less, and coming later at night - refreezing should not much of an issue.
1200 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
1231 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 AVIATION QUIET AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL.
200 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015 WHAT A GORGEOUS NOVEMBER DAY WITH FULL SUN ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. THIS WAS DUE TO A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THINGS CHANGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE A DEEPER LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS THE PLAINS MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
405 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AIR OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER NICE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT. BUT VALLEYS WILL BE A TAD WARMER ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S TONIGHT. WHILE RIDGES HOLD IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER FROM SUNDAY'SREADINGS WITH LOW TO MID 60S EXPECTED. CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE WILL LIMIT THE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT WITH VALLEYS AND RIDGES NOT SHOWING AS MUCH SEPARATION ON TEMPS. SHOULD ALSO BE MILDER WITH VALLEYS ONLY DIPPING INTO THE 30S AND RIDGES HOLDING IN THE 40S.
1230 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY AND MOVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL THEN NOSE DOWN INTO THE REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO MID WEEK.
323 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. ALTHOUGH A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EARLY TO MID WEEK.
225 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A DEEP TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
324 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
346 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015 (Tonight and Monday) A potent upper level trough currently across the West Coast will move west and approach the Rockies on Monday. Overnight lows are generally forecast to remain in the low 60s. On Monday, high temperatures will be warmer than what is forecast today, generally in the mid to upper 70s.
AT THE LOWER LEVELS BREEZY AND MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE A DEEPENING CYCLONE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL PROVIDE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
238 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NOT A CLOUD IN THE SKY AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH IN NW ALABAMA IS ADVECTING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION AS A RESULT. THUS LOWERED DEWPOINTS THERE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
1223 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NOT A CLOUD IN THE SKY AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
WITH THE MOISTURE AROUND THE LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL HIGHS.
1148 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015 THE WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE OVER THE WRN CONUS TODAY AND WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE STATE. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED A BIT AS THIS SATURATION OCCURS AND WILL STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION ALOFT WITH TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN SATURDAYS HIGHS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA.
258 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MONDAY.
1002 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015 High pressure extending from the Mid-Atlantic states to the western Gulf of Mexico continues to dominate the weather across central Illinois this morning. Southerly winds between a departing area of high pressure, and a developing storm system, will help support another day with well above normal temperatures across central and southeast Illinois. Deepening upper trough just offshore of the West Coast early this morning. In the southern branch of the jet stream, a pronounced curl with an upper low was located over southern Utah. While this low will lift northeast into the Dakotas, moisture is already surging northward ahead of a trough just west of the Baja California peninsula. This moisture should rapidly surge northeast tonight as a significant upper low forms near Las Vegas within the deep trough.
1221 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY.
WITH MODERATING LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AND OCNL STRATOCU CLOUDS TEMPS NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER INLAND AND SIMILAR LOWS NEAR THE COAST AS THIS MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A SMALL 20% POP FOR THE MARINE WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE WEAK COASTAL TROUGH AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AROUND THE 295-300K SFC. MAX TEMPS CERTAIN TO BE WARMER WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
200 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015 MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW. THE FIRST PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND AN INVERTED TROUGH AS THE UPPER LOW DIPS INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT.
325 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016 08z/3am surface analysis shows ridge of high pressure extending from the eastern Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast, while a 1000mb low develops over South Dakota. 00z Mar 22 models have come into much better agreement concerning the mid-week storm system, with the NAM/GEM/ECMWF all tracking low pressure across north-central Illinois by 12z Thu. Large upper trough currently evident on latest water vapor imagery along the West Coast will cross the Rockies and help the Plains low deepen over northern Kansas by 12z Wed.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS WEEK. AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
408 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016 HIGHS ARE FORECAST NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AS 850MB THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. FOCUS TURNS TO MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. DEFORMATION AXIS BEHIND THE LOW WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT THIS TIME WHILE COLD AIR DIVES SOUTH OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PLAY HAVOC ON TEMPS WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S IN OUR NORTH WHILE IN THE LOWER 70S IN OUR SOUTH.
AN EVEN STRONGER WIND EVENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. MORE SO ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT.
Updated 935 PM EDT Mon Mar 21 2016 Updated the forecast this evening mainly to adjust some of the cooler valleys downward for temperatures overnight. Cynthiana, KY and Brandenburg, KY has already dropped into the upper 30s, thus it appears the cooler valleys may get a bit cooler than previously advertised. Surface ridging stretching from the western Gulf up into the Midwest will slowly shift eastward overnight. Meanwhile weak ridging will build in aloft across the forecast area. For tonight temperatures will dip back into the 30s in many locations, warmer than last night. Given the low RH, windy conditions, and dry fuels, there will be a heightened fire danger tomorrow afternoon. Tuesday night will be quiet with much warmer temps, only dipping into the upper 40s to around 50.
Lower confidence Wednesday in warmer MAV given clouds.
318 AM PDT TUE MAR 22 2016 Much cooler temperatures and brisk winds are expected through tonight as low pressure exits the region. Otherwise, very few changes of note were made as high pressure builds over California and Nevada. Models have been slower in relaxing the pressure gradient today as the upper flow tilts Northwest-Southeast in the wake of an exiting low pressure system. Otherwise, conditions improve moving into mid/late week as high pressure builds over the region. After a relatively cold night tonight, lows in the teens for Sierra Valleys and mid 20s to around 30 degrees for Western Nevada, temperatures begin to trend warmer. High temperatures were lowered a little north of Interstate 80 Wednesday as a result of persistent cloud cover - generally remaining in the low/mid 50s while the rest of Western Nevada warms into the low/mid 60s.
The short term will be dominated by warm and dry southerly surface flow as we sit between high pressure moving off the southeast coast and low pressure organizing over the central Plains. On Wednesday southerly flow will continue and a cold front will be nearing from the west, but increasing clouds will offset temps a bit, so will once again forecast highs in the middle and upper 60s.