Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
606 PM EST Mon Dec 20 2021 High pressure through Tuesday.
302 PM CST Mon Dec 20 2021 An upper-level trough near the Arklatex will pass to the south of the CWA overnight, resulting in light rain showers late this afternoon into the overnight hours. Surface winds will remain from the northwest but increasing cloud cover will help keep temperatures a bit warmer tonight than what we saw this morning. Winds will veer to the west tomorrow with gradually clearing skies, allowing temperatures to warm into the lower 50s. With the trough moving east tomorrow, northwesterly flow will set up over the region as a broad, flat ridge develops over the Southern Rockies.
As of 02:30 pm CST, water vapor imagery shows an upper low over the Arklatex region bringing precipitation to the area. A weak cold front has made its way through northeast Kansas and has shifted winds out of the north, helping to keep temperatures in the upper 40s.
However, front will lift out to the east overnight tonight as a warm front. Above normal temperatures will continue through the end of the week under the influence of a low amplitude ridge traversing the southern CONUS.
The afternoon will be mostly clear and on track to be 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday. The low-level cloud layer in south- central KY is already falling apart, so expect more sunshine for the rest of the afternoon in counties neighboring TN. Minimum temperatures will remain below freezing and decreasing towards the northern KY/southern IN border where better radiational cooling will be present most of the night.
332 PM CST Mon Dec 20 2021 An upper low now centered over East Texas, will slowly move eastward into the ArkLaMiss area this afternoon through tonight. Light rain has developed out ahead of the low and is currently moving into the western portions of the area. There could be some isolated areas of sleet, but with temperatures well above freezing expect no impacts. High temperatures on Tuesday will continue to be cool in the low to mid 50s.
There is still plenty of time for winds to increase this evening and overnight so we will keep the High Wind Warning as is. Otherwise, flow turns more northwesterly on Tuesday with dry and generally warmer than normal temperatures.
Meanwhile, above the stratus, higher clouds are streaming northeastward overhead, in advance of an approaching trough of low pressure.
1049 PM CST Mon Dec 20 2021 A frontal boundary moving across the forecast area this afternoon will usher in some drier air and as high pressure settles across the region tonight we expect a period of good radiational cooling. We don't expect a significant cool down with this frontal boundary and afternoon highs are expected to remain above normal for late December, ranging from the low to mid 50s for most areas. This frontal boundary will allow high pressure to build in across eastern Kansas Tue night setting up the potential for another night with strong radiational cooling.
1247 AM EST Tue Dec 21 2021 A Gulf low pressure system moves northeast across Florida Tuesday afternoon, tracking off the Carolina Coast Tuesday evening. However, expect these are clouds as the low levels remain quite dry and no low clouds or rain showing on obs from those areas. A colder than normal airmass will remain in place thru the period as an induced ulvl ridge traverses the SE region.
Water vapor imagery depicted an upper low over the ArkLaTex region. A warm conveyor belt within the upper diffluence zone east of the low was producing fairly widespread showers across MS into AR. The low is forecast to move east-southeast into southern MS by 12Z/21. Temperatures have slowly dipped into the upper 30s northeast to the lower to middle 40s southwest across our forecast area, and may dip a few degrees more overnight into the middle to upper 30s. A few pockets of light rain will pass across mainly southern portions of the Tennessee Valley region during the morning hours on Tuesday as a low pressure system passes just south of the area.
Dry weather will continue as the area will remain under the influence of a high pressure system as well as northwest flow aloft due to upper level ridging moving east towards the area. It likely won't be as prominent as last night with slightly stronger winds but lows will still drop into the 30s with cooler temperatures to the north.
1030 PM CST Mon Dec 20 2021 (This evening through Tuesday) An upper low is over northeastern Texas early this afternoon, and is moving toward the Ark-La-Tex. Any patchy fog will burn off by mid-morning, and our area can expect mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures on Tuesday. Expect afternoon highs to range from the upper 60s in some of our eastern counties, to the lower 70s across most of the area farther west and south. (Tuesday night through next Monday) A dry and significant warming trend will take place this week, with much warmer than normal temperatures for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.
1022 PM EST Mon Dec 20 2021 High pressure will control the weather for most of the week.
5 to 3 inches category with the higher amounts as you go north across Vernon, Clark, and Taylor Co. Latest 19z surface analysis shows weak cold front extending from over Lake Superior to southern Iowa. Parade of short wave troughs continue this week with lower amplitude flow.
This should favor subsidence in the column, translating to weak anticyclone formation at the surface. While the center of this high will remain to our northwest, its affiliated pressure rises should extend into our northeastern CWA, keeping skies clear and winds light.
232 AM EST Tue Dec 21 2021 It will become breezy this afternoon as a cold front approaches, with southwest wind gusts up to 30 miles per hour.
1121 PM EST Mon Dec 20 2021 High pressure will control the weather for most of the week.
1142 PM EST Mon Dec 20 2021 High pressure will maintain dry and seasonable conditions through mid week.
Surface observations confirm at least some patchy dense fog (and possibly some freezing fog as well), with improving conditions expected by mid-morning.
334 AM EST Tue Dec 21 2021 High pressure will maintain dry and seasonable conditions through mid week.
The high and mid clouds will exit to the east during the night, but then a weak and moisture starved cold front will be approaching late tonight from the northwest which will bring some additional clouds especially northeast areas late tonight.
335 AM EST Tue Dec 21 2021 500mb analysis shows a low pressure system near the ARKLAMISS.
206 AM CST Tue Dec 21 2021 It will be a little warmer today with our area between high pressure systems.
233 AM EST Tue Dec 21 2021 High pressure will maintain dry and seasonable conditions through mid week.
1059 PM CST Mon Dec 20 2021 (This evening through Tuesday) Upper low over northeast Texas will continue to slowly shift east of our forecast area. This will be followed by decreasing clouds, and with light winds near and behind a weak frontal boundary, below freezing temperatures can be expected tonight. Another weak cold front will move into northern Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon, stalling and undergoing frontolysis across southern Oklahoma or northern Texas tomorrow night.
236 AM CST Tue Dec 21 2021 08Z water vapor imagery showed a cut off low over the lower MS river valley and off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. It's main impact on our weather will be to bring another weak cold front through the forecast area and reinforcing the dry air over the region.
A closed low moving across the Deep South will continue to spread high and midlevel cloud cover over our area through tonight and tomorrow. With this expected broken/overcast cloud cover, tomorrow's forecast highs in the lower 50s might be tough to reach, but will leave that unchanged for now and let the mid shift evaluate. Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 33 51 29 56 / 10 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 50 32 48 27 55 / 10 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 50 31 48 26 53 / 10 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 30 45 23 52 / 10 10 0 0 0.
/issued 641 PM CST Mon Dec 20 2021/ Expect a trough to pass to our south later tonight allowing showers to develop in north Mississippi. /issued 302 PM CST Mon Dec 20 2021/ An upper-level trough near the Arklatex will pass to the south of the CWA overnight, resulting in light rain showers late this afternoon into the overnight hours. Surface winds will remain from the northwest but increasing cloud cover will help keep temperatures a bit warmer tonight than what we saw this morning. Winds will veer to the west tomorrow with gradually clearing skies, allowing temperatures to warm into the lower 50s. With the trough moving east tomorrow, northwesterly flow will set up over the region as a broad, flat ridge develops over the Southern Rockies.
Widespread light rain continues to develop this evening over much of the forecast area ahead of a fairly vigorous upper low. The low is moving slowly east along the AR/LA border and expect the rain to continue for much of the overnight, especially over eastern MS. /EC/ Prior discussion below: An upper low now centered over East Texas, will slowly move eastward into the ArkLaMiss area this afternoon through tonight. Light rain has developed out ahead of the low and is currently moving into the western portions of the area. There could be some isolated areas of sleet, but with temperatures well above freezing expect no impacts. High temperatures on Tuesday will continue to be cool in the low to mid 50s.
Low clouds and/or fog are still possible in and near the Lower Treasure Valley tonight and tomorrow morning, but formation has been stymied so far by mid-level clouds that are not allowing good radiational cooling.
222 AM CST Tue Dec 21 2021 Upper low remains to our south, and will continue eastward through the day. But added in mention of sprinkles/drizzle as enough cloud cover and weak lift north of the low may allow for some very light rain, mainly along and south of I-40 this morning and in the east this afternoon.
A potent low pressure system has quickly taken shape across the Gulf of Mexico and is pushing eastward towards the Florida Peninsula. This low has an associated cold front that extends from the center of the low southward across the Yucatan Peninsula. Meanwhile, the area of high pressure that moved over us today and provided the northeast wind has already exited to the east in response to the approaching low pressure system. The low will begin to take on more of an east northeast trek overnight, reaching the west coast of Florida towards dawn. Likewise, the cold front looks to sweep through the Florida Keys Tuesday morning. Winds have clocked around to the east and southeast and will continue to clock around overnight as a cold front approaches from the west.
Upper low remains to our south, and will continue eastward through the day. But added in mention of sprinkles/drizzle as enough cloud cover and weak lift north of the low may allow for some very light rain, mainly along and south of I-40 this morning and in the east this afternoon.
201 AM MST Tue Dec 21 2021 High pressure will move through Northeast Montana today with mainly dry weather. Upper ridge will build into the area tonight and Wednesday bringing a warm front north. The ridge moves east Wednesday Night.
Today, mostly sunny skies are expected as high pressure quickly rebuilds. Slightly warmer today with modest WAA, highs in the 20s southwest and teens north and east.
another cold front will back its way through the area today with a thick deck of cirrus clouds moving through from northwest to southeast. upper level ridging moves over the area with 850mb temperatures rising about 6F to 18F compared to Tuesday. Low temperatures wont be as cold as the previous few nights with readings in the lower to upper 20s.
The large scale pattern is transitioning to a very broad area of troughing over the western U. with a ridge building in the Gulf of Alaska. Today the region will be in between troughs with some moisture still streaming in on southwest flow.
At the same time a southern stream closed low continues to slowly track across the Lower Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a weak cold front extends from southern IL into central OK with Lee troughing from eastern CO into WY/western Nebraska. This will push another weak cold front across the forecast area this afternoon, flipping winds around to the north. Highs today will be a few degrees warmer than they were on Mon as they top out in the low 50s. This feature will once again push a weak cold front across the forecast area.
Otherwise, low & mid level ridging will dominate area wx.
404 AM CST Tue Dec 21 2021 A weak cold front will pass across western Kansas late this morning. This will result in highs ranging from the lower 50s at Hays to the lower 60s at Elkhart. Winds will shift to the north by 10-11 am, which will bring in the reinforcing cooler air.
As system exits the area, mid-level ridging will start to exert itself across the Northern Plains, leading to the development of a milder airmass across the area for mid-week.
Given how efficiently we cooled in the few hours this evening, will push lows to the lower half of guidance.
530 AM EST Tue Dec 21 2021 High pressure will maintain dry and seasonable conditions through mid week. Areas N of I 80 could see a brief potential for scattered snow showers Wednesday after FROPA in the cold NW flow, before building high pressure quickly ends this potential through the afternoon. Dry weather should continue Wednesday night as the high builds further across the region. Temperatures are expected to be near or just above average Tuesday, with readings a few degrees below seasonable levels on Wednesday after the passage of the cold front.
Convection continues to work onshore as an area of low pressure works toward the West Coast of Florida. There is also less instability from cooler temperatures. As an area of low pressure works towards the state, low CIGs and periods of SHRA and/or TSRA are expected through much of the day. As the low works through and begins to exit the area, some gradual improvement is possible, but some lingering lower clouds may remain.
(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Upper ridge building in from the west will result in warm and mild wx through the short term. Will have a chilly start to the morning with much of the area north of the pecos below freezing but temps will warm quickly in the dry air. Even warmer on Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
A cold front is pushing across western SD, and is crossing into SW SD at this time.
Will forecast low temperatures in the 40s tonight/early Wednesday morning, to concur with the NBM, which is cooler than the SREF ensemble mean.
high pressure across the lower and middle Texas coast today will shift eastward tonight allowing an onshore flow to return across the Rio Grande Valley and Deep South Texas tonight into Wednesday.
High pressure over the Upper Mississippi Valley has led to clear skies and cold temps in the teens and 20s. Winds will then turn to the NW behind a cold front this evening.
21/06Z TAF CYCLE Where skies have cleared overnight, localized dense fog/freezing fog has formed, producing LIFR/VLIFR at a few fcst sites. Wl cont to mention patchy fog/freezing fog thru mid mrng as well. As the aforementioned upper low conts working further to the east today, the resulting NWly mid lvl flow wl bring the CDFNT thru much of the FA tngt into Wed. A reinforcing shot of cooler air wl start to advect into the FA fm the N on Wed, with highs ranging fm the upper 40s to the upper 50s.
A southerly flow rounding this low was bringing moisture over the region. But with upper low and troughing moving over south/central MS/AL/GA today, will keep lower end rain chances for mainly southern areas. The high pressure moving towards the area will continue a cool trend, with highs struggling to reach 50 degrees.
Winds are turning to the south and increasing, so the temperatures should be near the lowest for the morning and could even start to warm toward morning as winds increase. A cold front will move through the forecast area this morning. Wednesday should be warmer again.
A weak cold front will pass across western Kansas late this morning. This will result in highs ranging from the lower 50s at Hays to the lower 60s at Elkhart. Winds will shift to the north by 10-11 am, which will bring in the reinforcing cooler air.
317 AM CST Tue Dec 21 2021 High pressure over the Upper Mississippi Valley has led to clear skies and cold temps in the teens and 20s. Winds will then turn to the NW behind a cold front this evening.
316 AM CST Tue Dec 21 2021 A cold front will slide southward across the Panhandles this afternoon.
One off the Pacific NW coast, one centered over northern Manitoba, and one pushing across the lower MS valley region. At the surface, a large area of high pressure was in control over the central Plains. Attendant cold front is then expected to push into the CWA with winds gradually shifting from the south to the northwest early this afternoon.
431 AM CST Tue Dec 21 2021 A weak cold front will switch the winds around to the north at 10 to 15 knots late this morning into the early afternoon. /Issued 316 AM CST Tue Dec 21 2021/ A cold front will slide southward across the Panhandles this afternoon.
High pressure over the region will lead to slightly above normal temperatures through the middle part of the week, but with considerable cloudiness each day.
08Z water vapor imagery showed a cut off low over the lower MS river valley and off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. It's main impact on our weather will be to bring another weak cold front through the forecast area and reinforcing the dry air over the region.
GOES-16 Satellite trends/00Z upper air analysis places an upper level low over Northern Louisiana. The aforementioned upper level low will move east today with rain chances diminishing this morning as isentropic ascent and mid- level forcing weakens. Highs today will be in the lower 50s across most areas. Short term models indicate a weak cold front in the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley will drop southeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. Highs on Wednesday will be slightly cooler within northwest flow aloft.
622 AM EST Tue Dec 21 2021 It will become breezy this afternoon as a cold front approaches, with southwest wind gusts up to 30 miles per hour.
A series of storms will carve out a large trough of low pressure along the west coast and will draw ample moisture toward NM.
Wl cont to mention patchy fog/freezing fog thru mid mrng as well. As the aforementioned upper low conts working further to the east today, the resulting NWly mid lvl flow wl bring the CDFNT thru much of the FA tngt into Wed. A reinforcing shot of cooler air wl start to advect into the FA fm the N on Wed, with highs ranging fm the upper 40s to the upper 50s.
927 AM EST Tue Dec 21 2021 High pressure will maintain dry and seasonable conditions across much of the area through mid week. Cloud cover will be on the increase after 00Z with the approach of a weakening cold front. The best upper support and moisture is progged to remain north of the region but with the assistance of the lift with the ridges and lake enhancement, snow showers are expected across the northern PA counties and along the ridges down into WV. Temperatures are expected to be near or just above average Tuesday, with readings a few degrees below seasonable levels on Wednesday after the passage of the cold front.
1056 AM EST Tue Dec 21 2021 A 999 mb low pressure system moved into Sarasota and Charlotte Counties this morning, about 5 mb lower than model analyses. Surface observations measured hurricane-force wind gusts near where the low made landfall. Across the Keys, the dry air we noted yesterday south of Cuba has limited the vigor of the prefrontal trough and squall line slowly moving east across the Keys. Temperatures have peaked in the lower to mid 70s, and will stay steady or fall a few degrees. Cooler, drier air and north to northwest breezes are expected on Wednesday behind the front.
An upper level trough will move just south of the area the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect quite a few clouds around for today into early tonight before clearing out, most of them of the high/mid variety.
This regime is expected to end from NW-to-SE over the course of the afternoon, as deep-layer flow veers to the NW in the wake of the departing trough. The high pressure moving towards the area will continue a cool trend, with highs struggling to reach 50 degrees.
227 PM CST Tue Dec 21 2021 Latest water vapor imagery shows a closed low spinning over central/southern Alabama, with an upper ridge building along the Rockies. Showers have pushed east of the TN Valley this afternoon, with some light reflectivity wrapping around the northwestern portion of the low. While some sprinkles, and even light rain, may briefly impact the area as the low continues to move eastward, the intensity and duration should not amount to too much precipitation for the remainder of the day and into the overnight hours. Northwest flow will persist aloft as the ridge to our west slowly moves eastward. At the surface, high pressure will settle in across the region, leaving dry and seasonably mild conditions.
Winds will become less breezy overnight and settle in from out of the northwest as dry air associated with high pressure ridging builds in over the southeastern US. Overnight low temperatures for the winter solstice will drop down into the upper 30s for southeast Georgia and in the lower to mid 40s for northeast Florida and for locations along the coast.
The main impact will be gusty wind, magnitude of which may be sufficient for some minor tree damage and power outage potential in the higher elevations. Building high pressure will alleviate the windy conditions as Wednesday eve approaches, but cold and dry advection will result in overnight lows about 5 degrees under the averages.
High pressure will start to fill in behind the storm system on Wednesday with breezy northwest winds.
Expect quite a few clouds around for today into early tonight before clearing out, most of them of the high/mid variety. Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 33 50 29 56 / 20 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 32 48 26 55 / 10 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 49 30 47 26 53 / 10 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 30 44 23 53 / 0 10 0 0 0.
321 PM EST Tue Dec 21 2021 A short wave trough over the southeastern United States extends to the southwest across the Gulf of Mexico.
It will be a little warmer today with our area between high pressure systems. A cold front will move through the area this evening, and result in a brief, slight cool down again Wednesday as high pressure moves over the area.
300 PM EST Tue Dec 21 2021 Colder and breezy conditions are expected behind a cold front later tonight into Wednesday.
215 PM CST Tue Dec 21 2021 Another cold front associated with an upper level trough passing to our north will move through the area this evening into tonight. Wednesday's temperatures will be affected by the cold front.
Another cold front has exited the area this afternoon, but will stall out/return eastward as a warm front tonight and have little impact.
Temperatures will be near climatology today with highs generally in the lower 50s. /issued 306 AM CST Tue Dec 21 2021/ GOES-16 Satellite trends/00Z upper air analysis places an upper level low over Northern Louisiana. The aforementioned upper level low will move east today with rain chances diminishing this morning as isentropic ascent and mid- level forcing weakens. Highs today will be in the lower 50s across most areas. Short term models indicate a weak cold front in the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley will drop southeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. Highs on Wednesday will be slightly cooler within northwest flow aloft.
Wedneday should be a warmer day, especially southwest, though the colder air will be harder to overcome towards the Turtle Mountains.