Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
323 AM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021 Quiet conditions continue to prevail as upper level ridging builds over the region, with latest observations showing temperatures hovering in the upper 50s to low 60s. Look for the first day of meteorological fall to start off on a dry note, as the aforementioned ridge continues to strengthen over the region. Heading into the evening, models continue to hint that an upper level trough over the western CONUS will eject eastward towards the Northern Great Plains, causing a sfc cold front to encroach upon the region.
With a high pressure ridge firmly in control of our weather today, we expect another round of high temperatures in the mid 90s to lower 100s. The heat along with continued southeasterly flow in the low- levels will keep dewpoints rather high today. With southerly winds remaining in place overnight, look for lows in the lower 70s to near 80. We should see plenty of southerly flow in the low-levels, maintaining a warm and humid air mass over the region. Highs will once again be in the lower/mid 90s to near 100 degrees.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) WV imagery shows remnants of Ida entering the Carolinas, and this has allowed the upper ridge to center over the Southern Plains. Temperatures yesterday came in a little warmer than what models suggested, and models seem to be trying to cool things down sooner than reality. Models suggest highs Thursday will be a degree or so cooler than today as the ridge moves east and north, but we wouldn't be surprised if they are as warm as today's. Convection will redevelop again over the higher terrain Thursday.
In the wake of Ida, northwest flow ushers in a cooler and drier airmass. Afternoon highs will top out in the low to mid 80s Wednesday and Thursday and overnight lows will drop down into the upper 50s to lower 60s. By the end of the workweek, upper level ridging amplifies as it moves eastward across the central CONUS.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 65 82 62 85 / 10 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 80 63 81 59 84 / 20 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 80 62 81 59 83 / 20 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 73 60 79 54 82 / 70 10 10 0 0 TN.
These steadier winds are helping keep temperatures warmer than the past few nights, and they should also prevent any fog formation. With western high plains troughing developing overnight will see southeasterly winds persist helping keep temps a bit warmer than the past couple morning's with lows in the mid and upper 50s.
218 AM MDT Wed Sep 1 2021 A dry, cold front came through last night shifting winds for most of the area to the northwest. Behind the front and under the lowering heights of a broad trough over the Pac NW, temperatures will be significantly cooler today. Thursday will continue to be cooler with highs only in the mid to upper 70s.
Upper ridge will then begin to build into the area on Wednesday and should end the precipitation chances. The upper level ridge axis will be from Texas into the western great lakes on Thursday. Will see temperatures from the mid 80s in the east to the low 90s out west and possibly some mid to upper 90s heat index values out west.
By Wednesday, high pressure will build into the area bringing dry weather. Britt The majority of the ensemble members are showing that a upper ridge that will be over the area on Thursday will break down and that a upper trough will move from the northern Plains Great Lakes over the weekend.
Temperatures trend a bit cooler over the next couple of days. Today through Wednesday afternoon Troffing in the northwestern U. The lower heights will continue the slight cooling trend across Nevada.
Ridging aloft will build across the region for tonight into early Wednesday as energy ejects out of the PacNW and into Canada. This should spark off showers and thunderstorms along a slowly eastward advancing cold front Wednesday night into Thursday. Temperatures will be warm ahead of the front on Wednesday, but then should turn cooler for Thursday with more clouds and widespread pcpn across the forecast area. Remnants of hurricane Nora will have slid up the western spine of the front range and passed into the Dakotas, while in the low levels, Gulf of Mexico moisture will also be in place.
Midlevel ridging continues to build into the region today, ushering in subsidence that favors mostly clear skies and temperatures above seasonal average. Subsidence from midlevel ridging keeps midlevel moisture content fairly low, precluding any more widespread or robust storm development from occurring.
Cooler, drier air is expected through the rest of the week. Significantly cooler and drier air will filter in behind the remnant as a rather amplified trough-ridge-trough longwave pattern develops across the mid-latitudes of North America and strong high pressure builds across the Great Lakes.
233 AM MDT Wed Sep 1 2021 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a closed low over central Alberta. A cold front extends down south from it over far eastern Montana under zonal to southwest flow aloft. This flow extends all the way back to the Pacific Northwest with a ridge developing just offshore of British Columbia. Today: Cold front will move across the area early this morning brining a gusty northwest wind in behind it for mid day.
240 AM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021 An upper level ridge over the center of the CONUS will continue to amplify today.
1222 AM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021 H5 analysis from this morning had high pressure over New Mexico with a low amplitude ridge extending north into the western Dakotas and south central Canada. East of the ridge, the remnants of hurricane Ida were centered over NW Alabama. Further west, closed low pressure was located over southern British Columbia. A trough of low pressure extended south of this feature into northern California. Temperatures on Wednesday afternoon will reach into the lower to middle 90s. The front will track across the forecast area Thursday, aided by a mid level trough of low pressure.
upper level ridge early this morning. At the surface, Canadian high pressure was situated over the forecast area. High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 70s. Highs will remain in the lower to middle 70s.
Lows tonight will range from the lower 70s well inland to the mid to upper 70s for locations around Lake Pontchartrain and coastal locations south of I-10. Heat index values remaining in the low to mid 80s overnight for these coastal and urban locations will keep conditions uncomfortable for those without power and air conditioning. Fog at locations well inland will dissipate before the mid-morning hours on Wednesday, with plenty of insolation through the mid to late afternoon hours boosting highs into the lower 90s at most locations, creating heat index values of 105-108 degrees. A weak trough will linger over the region through Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop over our local waters during the afternoon hours on Wednesday, with activity potentially lingering through the overnight hours as a cold front approaches from the north.
This could lead to some areas of flooding, with the highest chances right along coast.
349 AM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021 Low pressure exits the region today with rain ending by the afternoon. Dry conditions and slightly cooler than normal temperatures move into the Ohio Valley Thursday into the start of the weekend. A cold front moves through during the weekend with only a slight chance for precipitation. On the northwest side of the low pressure, the local will experience blustery winds throughout the morning and afternoon. The winds and clouds limit high temperatures to the mid 70 to perhaps the low 80s. Temperatures are 5 to 10 degrees below normal, and depending on how quickly the high pressure moves in from the north, some upper 40s cannot be ruled out across west-central Ohio. Dewpoints in the low 50s during the afternoon will feel quite different from the humid air masses experienced during much of August.
Today Through Thursday Night Highs today are expected to climb into the mid to upper 90s across portions of central, western and southern Arkansas ahead of a cold front working its way into the state from the northeast. Temperatures on Thursday should be a few degrees cooler for much of the state as the front is expected to make fairly good progress south across the area.
A dry cold front moving through Central and Southwest Montana this evening will maintain westerly winds, with temperatures trending cooler into Wednesday.
Tomorrow Ida's circulation and upper trof will pull off well to the east, taking the rain along with it. North breezes of 10-15 mph with highs around 80 and dew points in the low-mid 60s will further enforce the fact that September will have arrived. As we head into Thursday, a sharply amplified upper trough will slowly become more zonal by the end of the work week. Temperatures won't be so bad either with highs in the low to mid 80s in most places.
A more northwesterly flow aloft will develop across our forecast area on Wednesday between the broad upper trough over the eastern U. and ridging aloft across the Plains. A drier northerly flow aloft returns for Thursday between the trough to the east and ridging out west. Lows Wednesday night will probably range around 70 inland to the lower to mid 70s along the coast.
A continued cooler weather pattern will linger into Wednesday as a low pressure area aloft slowly moves over the region. High pressure aloft will build in from the east and a bring a warming trend for the holiday weekend. ***UPDATE*** Unseasonably deep, marine layer clouds have pushed onshore this evening supported by an upper level trough and a strong onshore gradient of +7 mb from LAX to DAG.
Southerly flow will also help advect higher moisture into our region, bumping dew points into the lower to mid 70s. Fairly quiet weather conditions will persist as lows bottom out in the lower to mid 70s.
Cloud skies and cooler than normal temperatures will also be on tap today, along with northerly winds of 5 to 10 mph. In the upper levels, a large ridge across the Central CONUS will shift eastward, bringing increased heights through the Tennessee and Southern Ohio Valley. At the same time, an upper level trough will be pushing through the Mid-Atlantic, combining with a northern stream closed low across Eastern Canada. At the surface, high pressure will expand east with time, bringing welcomed dry weather of sunshine and near normal temperatures through the early weekend.
As described in previous AFD, an upper trough is in place over the Pacific Northwest and will remain in place with somewhat cooler temperatures (i.
1240 AM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021 Summary: Partly cloudy to mostly clear skies will continue Wednesday under a departing high pressure.
146 AM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021 High pressure will take up residence across the Great Lakes with mainly dry weather for the rest of the week with a few minor exceptions. Temperatures will trend cooler through the end of the week, with much lower humidity. High pressure will continue to reside just to our north overnight as the flow will gradually turn northeast with the northeastward advancement of the remnants of Ida. Mainly dry weather is then expected to continue through the remainder of the period as high pressure remains in control. A secondary (dry) cold front will push south through the area on Thursday, bringing a reinforcing shot of even cooler and drier air (refreshing) to our region.
A weak upper level ridge moves into the area on Wednesday and temperatures are expected to warm a little. A low pressure system and cold front will move through Thursday night.
High pressure, centered in NW Ontario, and the remnants of Ida to the south, look to have us in a dry position in the Upper Great Lakes. The main clouds in the region have been associated with Ida, which looks to take the clouds with it, as it moves into the Mid-Atlantic region, and a 500 mb ridge begins to move into the western part of Lake Superior. High impact weather potential: None Synopsis/Forecast: By Thursday morning upper level ridging will be pushing into the upper Great Lakes. This will be bordered on either side by a cut-off low moving through ern Quebec and an elongated positively-tilted trough extending from Saskatchewan through Oregon.
An isolated shower or two cannot be completely ruled out late this evening into the overnight hours as a cold front slowly sags further south toward the region. Any patchy morning fog and stratus should mix out by late morning, with mostly sunny skies and temperatures rebounding into the mid 80s tomorrow afternoon as mid level ridging builds back in from the west. This ridge flattens out by Thursday with a mid level high centered to our southwest.
(Today and tonight) Mid/upper high will continue to build into the region today. With the high pressure in the region, showers/storms will become less likely.
Tranquil conditions will persist tonight into Wednesday as ridging aloft continues to slowly build while edging east through the Central Plains. As a northwest flow aloft gradually intensifies across the Western High Plains, developing low pressure is projected to remain anchored in eastern Colorado through this evening while outflow from this morning's convection in southern Nebraska/northeast Kansas stalls out generally from west central Kansas into southeast Kansas. Thunderstorms will be increasingly possible through the day as upper level disturbances begin to lift northeast across the high plains, interacting with the aforementioned trough axis.
However, most of the night will be dry as high pressure builds in, bringing dry and less humid weather into the area for the next couple of days. However, clouds will hang around the area through the night and then dissipate tomorrow as high pressure builds into the area with a dry and less humid air mass. Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid 60s with tomorrow's afternoon highs around 80.
Only a mix of low to mid- level clouds remained, with high pressure lurking not too far to the north near Lake Superior. [Key Messages] *Quiet and dry conditions with high pressure building into the area *A slight chance of a PM rain shower mainly in eastern IA and northwest IL, but expect most to be rain-free [Discussion] Ridging from the aforementioned high pressure is progged by all guidance to slowly build southeast through today, eventually finding itself centered in the Great Lakes region tonight. High pressure will remain in place Thursday, with another pleasant day with mild temperatures and seasonally dry air (dewpoints in the 50s).
However, elevated smoke from the west will advect in overhead as a ridge axis shifts east across the area and flow turns more southwesterly. A trough over the PacNW will approach Thursday, but a nearly stationary mid level low over northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba will slow the progression of the trough. Nonetheless, upper divergence and another weaker mid level disturbance rotating around the northern periphery of the ridge centered across the south will generate widespread showers and a few storms across the Plains.
236 AM MDT Wed Sep 1 2021 Upper ridge axis is currently centered over the central states, while a Pacific NW trough pushes eastward. At the surface, low pressure is over SE MT. Its warm front is beginning to cross the CWA, with the cold front following behind.
Dry conditions and slightly cooler than normal temperatures move into the Ohio Valley Thursday into the start of the weekend. Under mostly clear skies and light winds, lows Thursday night will fall into the lower to mid 50s.
Today: Surface ridging from the Great Lakes to mid MO Valley early this morning will weaken in response to the deepening of a lee trough over the High Plains. When coupled with surface trajectories originating from the anticyclone to the northeast, highs may end up a bit cooler than prior forecasts, and largely around 80 or the lower 80s. Thursday and Thursday night: The above-mentioned, mid-level disturbance is forecast to move through the northern and central Plains on Thursday with an associated surface cold front reaching the mid MO Valley on Thursday night.
Broad troughing persists over the Eastern Tennessee Valley, with mid-Level ridging forecast to amplify over the Southern and Central Plains. High temperatures will range from the lower 80s north and northeast to readings near 90 southwest.
333 AM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021 A few very isolated showers have popped up near the TN River, ahead of a weak cold front.
Cooler, drier air is expected through the rest of the week. The trend will continue as the upr trough axis and Ida remnant continue to dvlp the moisture convergence areas east of the ridges. Significantly cooler and drier air will filter in behind the remnant as a rather amplified trough-ridge-trough longwave pattern develops across the mid-latitudes of North America and strong high pressure builds across the Great Lakes.
709 AM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021 Welcome to meteorological fall! High pressure sitting over Hudson Bay extends southward into the Upper Mississippi Valley early this morning with light to calm surface winds. This will yield similar, if not slightly cooler, temperatures compared to yesterday with highs in the 70s to around 80. A slightly cooler night on tap tonight with lower fog potential owing to some drier air advecting in from the northeast today.
Could see a frontal precipitation band advance quickly from west-east across the CWA between 6z-12z Thursday with the trough axis.
High temperatures will be warmer than yesterday, but dewpoints will be on their way down so it shouldn't feel as soupy as it has felt the last week or two. The upper trough that Ida is merging with, will dig deeper into the eastern U.
A weak boundary/low-level convergence zone has developed across the northern Gulf of Mexico and north FL, with a strong upper trough over the eastern CONUS and a weak ridge over the FL Straits. The upper trough is creating a large area of upper-level divergence that will slowly overspread the north-central FL into this afternoon. There will be a gradient of temps across the area this afternoon as highs reach the low/mid 90s south and likely just mid/upper 80s across the cloud-covered northern areas.
700 AM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021 Low pressure exits the region today with rain ending by the afternoon. Dry conditions and slightly cooler than normal temperatures move into the Ohio Valley Thursday into the start of the weekend. A cold front moves through during the weekend with a slight chance for precipitation. On the northwest side of the low pressure, the local will experience blustery winds throughout the morning and afternoon. The winds and clouds limit high temperatures to the mid 70 to perhaps the low 80s. Temperatures are 5 to 10 degrees below normal, and depending on how quickly the high pressure moves in from the north, some upper 40s cannot be ruled out across west-central Ohio. Dewpoints in the low 50s during the afternoon will feel quite different from the humid air masses experienced during much of August.
430 AM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021 (Issued 405 AM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021) Today through Thursday: High pressure will continue to contribute to overall dry conditions and low humidity over southern Wisconsin today. Otherwise, Thursday should be a carbon copy of today, albeit with more cloud cover, as a weakening low pressure system approaches from the west.
Cooler, drier air is expected through the rest of the week. Convergence area north and east of the low are the focus for the heavy rain. Significantly cooler and drier air will filter in behind the remnant as a rather amplified trough-ridge-trough longwave pattern develops across the mid-latitudes of North America and strong high pressure builds across the Great Lakes.
/issued 333 AM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021/ A few very isolated showers have popped up near the TN River, ahead of a weak cold front.
A narrow axis of shallow moisture convergence spanned an areas behind a surface cold front from central Kansas northwest into the smoky hill valley in the west central. There is not a large degree of spread in what models are putting out for high temperatures this afternoon, most of which was in the very high 90s, and overall the model consensus is only a degree to two warmer than the climate influenced MOS. The warm air today is indirectly due to the mid level ridge axis being directly over central Kansas with strong subsidence.
407 AM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021 A narrow axis of shallow moisture convergence spanned an areas behind a surface cold front from central Kansas northwest into the smoky hill valley in the west central. There is not a large degree of spread in what models are putting out for high temperatures this afternoon, most of which was in the very high 90s, and overall the model consensus is only a degree to two warmer than the climate influenced MOS. The warm air today is indirectly due to the mid level ridge axis being directly over central Kansas with strong subsidence.
High pressure will build in from the northwest for drier and less humid weather by Thursday, remaining through the weekend. Could see some gusts in the 20 to 30mph, especially along the ridgetops. Cooler temperatures and less humidity also arrives tonight.
/issued 240 AM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021/ An upper level ridge over the center of the CONUS will continue to amplify today.
For today and tonight, a short wave trough/jet streak will bring the first shot of showers and storms for mainly later this afternoon and tonight. Otherwise, the main trough in the southwest U. Thursday will be cooler with the clouds and rainfall with upper 60s to the upper 70s expected for highs.
444 AM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021 Upper level ridging will translate eastward across the Central and Southern Plains today. This occurs ahead of an upper trough that is developing into the Pacific Northwest.
533 AM MDT Wed Sep 1 2021 Upper ridge axis is currently centered over the central states, while a Pacific NW trough pushes eastward. At the surface, low pressure is over SE MT. Its warm front is beginning to cross the CWA, with the cold front following behind.
905 AM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021 The upper level trough axis is now to the east of the area with the remnants of Ida moving over the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeastern U. Additionally, there is a cold front to the north that will move into the area later today.
622 AM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021 Quiet conditions continue to prevail as upper level ridging builds over the region, with latest observations showing temperatures hovering in the upper 50s to low 60s. Look for the first day of meteorological fall to start off on a dry note, as the aforementioned ridge continues to strengthen over the region. Heading into the evening, models continue to hint that an upper level trough over the western CONUS will eject eastward towards the Northern Great Plains, causing a sfc cold front to encroach upon the region.
A slowly progressing cold front along with a strong low level jet may still be enough to develop a few showers and thunderstorms in the north this morning.
Surface ridging will persist across the area today, while mid and upper level ridging shifts off to the northwest. Weak troughing will dig in behind the ridge in the upper levels and could provide some focus for showers and storms along the coast today as deep moisture increases. Expect an increase in convection again on Thursday, and could be a bit better than Wednesday with some mid level energy swinging around south of the ridge.
646 AM CDT Wed Sep 1 2021 Upper level ridging will translate eastward across the Central and Southern Plains today. This occurs ahead of an upper trough that is developing into the Pacific Northwest.
Cloud skies and cooler than normal temperatures will also be on tap today, along with northerly winds of 5 to 10 mph.