Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This front will slowly slip further offshore today as low pressure tracks east along it. A secondary cold front extended from northern Maine through the Saint Lawrence valley.
Still looking at some fog along the Cheyenne Ridge and portions of the Nebraska Panhandle. Northwesterly flow aloft will continue through Saturday across the region as the midlvl ridge center is located near northern Arizona.
305 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016 An upper level trough extended southward across the MS Valley region, while an upper ridge remained over the desert SW and the subtropical ridge was situated just off the coast of FL. An area of scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, has been ongoing to our north, in response to a weak disturbance moving east around the base of the upper trough. Temperatures as of 08Z were in the lower 70s, and may drop a degree or two through the remainder of the overnight period. Additionally, patchy fog was beginning develop due to the abundance of moisture, and despite the low clouds over the area.
Sonoran MCS has weakened considerably but outflow winds have started moving into the Lower Colorado River Valley per 10Z METAR from NYL.
With some minor ridging aloft this morning, the activity should hold off until the afternoon. Expect warmer temperatures today, with humid conditions.
However on Saturday, developing trough in British Columbia turns the flow direction just slightly more southerly, and allows this moisture to creep north.
258 AM PDT FRI JUL 29 2016 A ridge of high pressure continue to bring hot temperatures through the weekend.
644 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 A weak upper level trough and stalled front will keep chances for scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms in the forecast today into Saturday.
247 AM PDT FRI JUL 29 2016 A ridge of high pressure continue to bring hot temperatures through the weekend.
327 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 A weak upper level trough and stalled front will keep chances for scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms in the forecast today into Saturday.
The high will fluctuate some in strength, allowing the wind to very between east to southeast. The sounding from last evening did show a fairly high freezing level, sitting at over 16k ft.
SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): 500 mb high pressure will be centered both over the Desert Southwest and off the Eastern Seaboard during the forecast period, with a weakness in between these two systems along the Texas coastline and over the western Gulf of Mexico. The result of this pattern will be isolated showers and thunderstorms for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley today and tomorrow, with streamer activity not anticipated over the Lower Texas coastal waters tonight due to a brief drop in available tropical moisture.
By around midnight the trough axis should be near the IN/IL boundary with thunderstorms diminishing from west to east behind the trough axis.
424 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016 A weak upper trough remains in place across the region with most of its influence across the northern half of Alabama. The broad upper ridge dominating the southern tier of the Conus will oscillate west and east as a few disturbances in the westerlies move by well north of the region. The general weakness in the ridge will remain near central Alabama much of the period providing conditions favorable for daily thunderstorms.
231 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016 Water vapor satellite early this morning showed a short wave trough over the Nebraska/Iowa border, another over central South Dakota with a third over Montana. These showers should taper off this evening with a dry overnight expected as the short wave troughs move east of the region.
While there isn't a more synoptic boundary to focus on, feel storms should develop over the high Plains Sat afternoon and try and work east into the evening hours. Upper ridging will start to build east into the southern Plains Sun into the start of the work week.
340 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016 The primary cold front is rather ill-defined early this morning but best guess would place it across southwest IL and across southern MO into northern OK at 08z. Otherwise slightly cooler and slight drier air will gradually filter into the region, especially tonight in the wake of the second boundary as weak high pressure settles southward from the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes region.
309 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016 Upper level trough axis extended from WI to KS and was producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Today: Upper level trough and pocket of cooler air aloft will slide into the cwa. Pops will be kept at 30-40 percent, with the higher pops in the north and east where the better forcing will exist. Tonight: Slow moving upper level trough will still be over the area but with the loss of heating any showers or storms will gradually diminish. Lows should be in the lower to mid 60s.
604 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 High pressure will continue to bring oppressive heat and humidity to the region through Saturday.
model soundings indicate that it will remain very dry in the lower levels. temperatures will be cooler as ridging aloft weakens over the area. The winds will be generated by two troughs moving onshore to the north of the area.
Moisture will be drawn northward each day, due to outflows and a trough passage well to our north that will improve streamlines. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain from the Grand Canyon and Flagstaff southeast to the New Mexico border.
/issued 123 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016/ Deep easterly mid level flow is expected through Saturday between an upper level ridge centered in the Rockies and a westward moving disturbance in central Mexico.
Upper level high pressure will weaken today, and low- level onshore flow will become strong this evening. An upper level trough will brush by on Saturday and Saturday night.
314 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 A weak cold front will push off the coast today and tonight. Low pressure tracking along the front will pass south of the Gulf of Maine early tonight. High pressure will build across the region over the weekend. Downeast zones wl be some 5-10 degrees cooler than Thur whereas locales acrs the north wl see max temps fairly similar to Thur. Wk sfc trof crossing northern Maine may spark off an isold thunder this aftn for a brief pd of time. High pressure supported by ridging over central Canada and a trough over eastern Canada will push across the area this weekend.
151 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 Low pressure developing along the mid-Atlantic coast will spread showers across northeast Pennsylvania tonight and Friday morning.
The upper ridge is centered over the south Saturday and Saturday night.
Combined with a weak upper trough axis over the region, these boundaries should provide for at least isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today mainly across Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest/Southern Arkansas.
Upper ridge axis will remain in place across the region today, helping to maintain the higher than normal temperatures and lower than normal rain chances.
Areas of fog will blanket the area early this morning, as abundant low level moisture is left from yesterday's rain and which is visible in the high surface dewpoints across much of the area. With some minor ridging aloft this morning, the activity should hold off until the afternoon. Expect warmer temperatures today, with humid conditions.
Subsidence aloft should take over the remaining areas as a mid level ridge axis to the NW expands east into North Central TX.
122 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 High pressure over the region will keep above normal temperatures in the forecast through the end of the week. Upper level ridge continues over the Southeastern states and offshore. The ridge will weaken Friday as an upper trough moves eastward. increased low-level moisture and weak trough/frontal boundary in the vicinity should be a much better focus for convection than the area has seen in awhile.
Weakening high pressure aloft will result in another very warm day today across inland areas, with seasonably cool temperatures along the coast with continued weak onshore flow. A cooling trend is slated to begin during the weekend as an upper level trough approaches the west coast. Today is expected to be another hot day across inland areas, but cooler temperatures are on the way.
the high country may see some convection from differential heating and local convergence by afternoon. We will see some modest ridging on Saturday in response to a sharp trough dropping down through British Columbia. Models suggest some weak impulses ahead of the main trough may fire off some convection Saturday evening over our mountains.
High pressure ridging at low/mid-lvls will maintain the current weather trend for hot conditions as afternoon temperatures rise well into the 90s. The upr ridge responsible for the stretch of excessive heat and dry conds will be in the process of weakening during the period. This combined with more complete weakening of upr ridge will allow for better rain chc than past days for both coast and inland locations. Favorable conditions are forecast for the marine area due to presence of a high pressure ridge in proximity to the waters.
155 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 A stalled frontal boundary will remain across the lower lakes and Ohio Valley through the weekend. Weak waves of low pressure will ride along the front helping to ignite some showers and thunderstorms.
1241 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016 High pressure will nose its way across the forecast area tonight and Friday. We will have been in a warm and moist advection regime though on the west side of the ridge and temperatures will be slightly warmer on Saturday than they will on Friday.
As for temperatures, highs today look to only reach into the low to mid 80s with lows tonight falling into the mid to upper 60s.
426 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 Early this morning, a ridge of high pressure was centered north of the Bahamas with another ridge centered over the Southwestern Conus. A closed low was over Eastern Canada with troughing extending south to the TN Valley. Meanwhile a nearly stationary surface frontal zone extends from the Mid Atlantic states to a weak wave of low pressure over Eastern OH and then extending southwest to the north of the OH River and then into the Central Plains.
119 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 A weak cold front will continue south to the Downeast coast overnight. The front will push offshore Friday into Friday night as low pressure along the front tracks south of the area. Previous Discussion: Most of the current shwrs and tstms ovr our FA should move E and or dissipate from the region this eve as an s/wv slides E across Nrn ptns of the FA and a weakening cold front slowly moves S toward the Downeast coast. Low pressure is expected to move out of the Gulf of Maine Friday night. High pressure is then expected to build in from the northeast during the day Saturday with dry conditions expected. Low pressure is the expected to develop along the Mid Atlantic coast Saturday Night then move to the northeast.
224 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016 As a surface trof of lower pressure works across the lower Ohio valley today, it will help focus updrafts in high CAPE, diurnally charged/souped environ, for scattered showers/thunderstorms with locally heavy rains possible, and a marginal risk of svr storms. However, overall height falls further up the Ohio Valley, and height rises in the High Plains, means the teleconnected flow pattern will be nwlys aloft across the mid Mississippi valley, which will be an enabling flow for initiating mainly diurnal shower/storm activity. A warmup to more extreme heat/humidity is anticipated next work week as the Height falls over the mid and upper Ohio valley shift eastward, with ridging High Plains heights working their way across the middle and upper Mississippi valley.
Highs will range from mid 70s over a good portion of northwestern IA and southwestern MN to the lower 80s through the James River Valley/MO River Valley.
349 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016 Early morning water vapor imagery shows an anticyclone churning over the Great Basin with the eastern extent of the ridge nosing into Texas while broad troughing was in place from the Midwest through the eastern CONUS. This frontal zone (likely sitting across the Texas Panhandle this afternoon) along with the higher terrain of New Mexico and Colorado will serve as a focus for afternoon and early evening convective development.
Today, an h500 trough will move through the northern plains in northwest weak flow aloft.
344 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016 (Today and Tonight) The center of the upper high will remain over the Great Basin again today, with the upper ridge axis stretched across the southern tier of the CONUS. Lows tonight will be mainly in the lower and middle 70s.
236 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 High pressure will continue to bring oppressive heat and humidity to the region through Saturday.
645 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 Broad low-amplitude upper level troughing remains over the Great Lakes region early this morning. Short wave riding very slowly thru the upper level trough continues to produce a broken area of weak convection across portions of Wisconsin and Lower Michigan. fueled by 250-500 J/kg of MUCAPE and the northern fringe of 850 mb theta E ridging. Indiana and the Ohio Valley where MUCAPES increase to 2000-3000 J/kg by afternoon and strong 850 mb theta E ridging will reside. with weak upper level troughing remaining in place.
Upper low moving across the northern Rockies this morning spreading mid to high level clouds over eastern Montana. This wave will push a cold front across the state today. The upper low moves into the northern plains on Thursday with a few lingering showers over the eastern zones.
347 AM MDT WED JUL 6 2016 A low pressure system will move along the U. and Canada border today with its relatively dry cold front brushing past northeast Utah and northwest Colorado. The next low pressure disturbance will then move across the northwest states and northern Rockies Sun-Tue. and A disturbance and cold front passing just north of the area today will bring increasing west winds across the region.
Cooler weather will arrive this weekend with breezy to windy conditions. An upper low is spinning eastward over northern Idaho this morning with an associated trough extending SSW to central CA. The low has brought some slight synoptic cooling to the district aided by a cool onshore surface flow. There is good model consensus with a deeper upper low dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska and over the Pac NW this weekend. This low is expected to dig farther south over northern CA and the Great Basin, which the ModTrend is continuing to show.
A thunderstorm complex over central Sonora associated with a weak inverted trough has largely dissipated early this evening, however has essentially bifurcated ridging aloft with one high pressure center shifting into west Texas while a western branch remains situated over far SE Arizona. Furthermore with this increased westerly flow and depressed troughing pattern, H5 heights will languish only around 590dm yielding temperatures very close to the seasonal climatology. South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL, and Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Strong high pressure aloft and weak sfc pressure gradients to keep skies mainly clear through the taf period.
The warm air aloft will keep convection capped off outside of some evening ridge convection.
330 AM EDT Wed Jul 6 2016 Prevailing high pressure will provide very warm and moderately humid conditions to the North Country today, with afternoon high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s in most locations. A trough of low pressure approaching from southeastern Ontario will bring a slight chance of a thunderstorm tonight across northern New York, and scattered showers and thunderstorms across the North Country during Thursday afternoon.
202 AM EDT Wed Jul 6 2016 Prevailing high pressure will provide very warm and moderately humid conditions to the North Country today, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s in most locations. A trough of low pressure approaching from southeastern Ontario will bring a slight chance of a thunderstorm tonight across northern New York, and scattered showers and thunderstorms across the North Country during Thursday afternoon.
Temperatures were generally in the 80s, with the highest temps at 3 pm being 88 degrees. Two Harbors had the highest heat index value in our CWA at 94 degrees. First low, the upper level pattern will become more amplified with the British Columbia trof digging into the pacific northwest then scoot along the international border through the rest of the week. In the meantime, a warm frontal boundary will set up across Missouri Wednesday night then it will push north and into MN and WI Thursday.
433 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2016 Under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and a steady east to southeast wind, temperatures are holding in the lower to mid 80s along the island chain. Furthermore, expect the low temperatures to dip only to 84 degrees at the Key West airport which would tie the warm minimum record for today July 6th. Surface wise, a Western Atlantic ridge remains aligned across South Florida, resulting in mostly east winds of around 15 knots and slightly higher on the Florida Straits.
Temperatures are in the lowers 80s south to near 80 north. Not expecting much change over the next 2 days as high pressure continues to build across the region. Temperatures will be the big story as highs zoom up into the low to mid 90s areawide.
So a similar scenario for Thursday, although upper heights are starting to rise in our south/west, in response to the broader ridge aloft.
Our forecast area will remain on the northwest side of a strong, deep-layer ridge. However, there are relatively steep lapse rates in the lower and mid troposphere that could promote the development of isolated, strong updrafts on Wednesday afternoon. High temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and afternoon dewpoints in the low 70s will yield heat index values approaching 105.
402 AM MDT WED JUL 6 2016 Drier and warmer air will move into Colorado on westerly flow aloft today. Since the airmass will be slightly warmer and drier with more sun, I nudged todays highs up another degree or two. A flat upper level ridge is expected to remain in place over the southern United States through much of the forecast period.
Several of the high-res models place these storms into central Indiana by daybreak, on a weakening trend as they drop into our northern counties by late morning.
Have temperatures rising into the low to mid 90s again today with heat index values from the upper 90s (south central MO) to the 105 to 108 range within the advisory area out west.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): A fairly dry and stable 500 mb ridge will remain in control of conditions over Deep South Texas throughout today and Thursday. With the 500 mb ridge axis remaining in place over the region do not expect much difference in the high/low temps through Thursday.
1225 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016 Upper level ridging over the region, combined with southerly surface flow and residual moisture from the rains that occurred over the holiday weekend were combining to create dangerous heat today. While heat indices may be slightly cooler as dew points will be slightly lower, heat indices are still expected to climb into the 100 to 105 range for much of the region.
An upper level trough anchored over much of the West Coast will result in cool temperatures through week and into the upcoming weekend.
Upper level ridging will increase over the area today with the hot temperatures continuing to prevail. Upper ridging will continue to increase over the area on thursday along with some drier air with pwats falling to less than 1.
A low pressure system and associated frontal boundary is currently over the eastern CWA. just a bit cooler on Thursday.
Temperatures across the area early this morning ranged from the upper 60s along the Cumberland Plateau to the lower and middle 70s elsewhere.
105 AM EDT TUE JUL 6 2016 High pressure over the lower lakes will weaken and slide east tomorrow.
Look for max temps to climb to near 100 F for the plains, and in the mid to upper 80s for the high valleys.
1130 PM MDT TUE JUL 5 2016 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southeast SD, with cool front trailing west-southwest across south central SD to central WY. Low pressure will slowly track east along the front from east-central WY in the morning to southwest SD by early afternoon and then across southwest and south central SD during the afternoon and evening. Some lingering showers/storms are possible across central SD Thursday as the upper low crosses the region. Then as a cold front pushes through, precip will end from west to east through the day.
310 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016 Ridge City going into mid-week with above normal morning temperatures and slightly above normal afternoon T(max) readings. 5H ridging paralleling the southern CONUS latitudes will remain in place through the remainder of the work week. This will lower mid to late afternoon surface dew points into the lower 70s.
High pressure then settles off the Southeast Coast from mid week into the upcoming weekend. Warm/humid with lows mainly in the lower to mid 70s.
1213 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016 Low pressure was located over southeast South Dakota at 18z with a warm front extending from the low into central Minnesota and a trough stretching into central Nebraska. Area still looks to be between systems on Wednesday with the day mainly dry before next threat of storms comes back Wednesday night into Thursday as the next cold front drops into the area.
145 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2016 Warmer and more humid weather will return for the rest of the week with periodic rain chances.
351 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016 Warm temperatures in store for the area once again today as high pressure continues to influence the forecast.
411 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2016 A warm frontal boundary and upper level disturbance will bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms into the area this morning.
146 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2016 A weak high pressure system will build northwest of the region tonight.
330 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016 Stationary front was located from eastern IA into central IL with a cold front back into nw IA. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s with lows in the lower 70s. Thursday and Thursday night: Potent upper level trough and cold front will be coming across the cwa.
Weak trough pattern over NorCal persists and not much change is expected compared to yesterday.
The weather pattern will remain stagnant today with deep layer ridging remaining in place, yielding moist southwest flow across the region. Given the low-level moisture in place, the other story of the day will be the heat. Afternoon high temperatures are forecast to run in the low to mid 90s this afternoon, with dewpoints in the mid 70s. Heat indices will run from 102-106F across much of the region, with the highest values across eastern potions of the forecast area.
High temperatures will once again near the 105 degree mark across generally the southwestern and central portions of the TX Panhandle today and tomorrow, especially in the lower terrain areas including Palo Duro Canyon and the Canadian River Valley. Beyond today, the synoptic weather pattern continues to feature a ridge of high pressure along the southern U. In the lower to mid-levels, models suggest the ridge will stay far enough south and east to allow some mid-level moisture to move over the Panhandles.
216 AM MDT WED JUL 6 2016 vigorous upper trough will advect through the northern plains in the period, supporting period sf showers and thunderstorms, some of which will be severe. Very unstable conditions with a weak cap should allow storms to fire quickly this afternoon along the trough, which will be in far eastern WY. Potent upper trough with jet streak forcing and lingering moisture will support sct-isold high based shra/ts tonight into thur morning as this system progresses east and the main sfc based activity exits the fa. Cooler weather is expected thurs behind the cold front, with 70s likely most places, a few 80s scentral.