Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Incoming low amplitude trough will bring up some unstable moist air today, giving a threat of thunderstorms to the western half of the forecast area. But this slow moving trough is not done yet. A cold front sweeps through Mon night, bringing snow levels lower, so that snow may be seen in the Arco Desert and the Rexburg area of the Snake River plain.
An upper level trough along the west coast will weaken as it tracks east across the Great Basin through tonight.
A warm front will move in from the south today with MVFR/IFR ceilings returning to the region by the evening hours. This boundary is expected to retreat northward as a warm front through the period with rain chances gradually increasing across the region. Temperatures will continue to run above normal, with highs in the low to mid 80s today and tomorrow, and tonight's lows in the mid 60s to near 70.
954 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020 High pressure offshore will bring summer-like temperatures today. A dry cold front will move offshore tonight, followed by weak high pressure Monday.
We'll see an increase in high clouds as a result, but cloud cover should be thin enough to see filtered sunshine today and slightly warmer temperatures. Temperatures will be warmer, with overnight lows in the 50s.
951 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020 Additional showers along with scattered thunderstorms are expected today as a cold front moves east across the state.
A mid/upper level trough approaching the region will result in an increase in rain showers through midday as a frontal boundary sweeps inland. The warning trend will continue region-wide through at least midweek as high pressure builds in from the Pacific and the storm track remains well to the north. This is as the ridge of high pressure does not appear to strengthen as much as previously thought with broad troughing over the West. This will likely be accompanied by cooler than average temperatures as well as weather systems drop southward down the West Coast.
515 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020 Satellite imagery shows clear skies behind the cold front that moved through late yesterday evening and early this morning. Current temperatures range from the low 50s to low 60s with more comfortable humidity levels as dew- points are in the mid 50s to low 60s. Drying will continue over the next couple of days as weak high pressure builds over the region.
08Z water vapor imagery shows a closed low lifting over the Upper Midwest. A third upper low could be see over the Gulf of Alaska. At the surface, a low pressure system was lifting into WI and weak ridging was filling in behind this system across the southern and central plains. The main affect of this is to shift the higher POPs south, although still maintaining likely POPs across most of the forecast area.
433 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020 The cold front will move east of the area early this morning with a few more showers possible in the southeast, but high pressure will build in this morning and continue through tonight. /15/ Tomorrow's high temperatures will be a couple degrees cooler than today in the wake of this mornings storms. Instead, the narrow ridging sets up in a more SE/NW orientation over the SErn CONUS, keeping the winds more easterly.
/Issued 318 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020/ A cold front is forecast to move across the area today and this evening.
454 AM MDT Sun Mar 29 2020 An upper level ridge that brought sunny skies and warm temperatures over the region continues through today and Monday. Many areas can expect to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with some locations reaching into the lower 60s. The ridge will transition to southwesterly flow before a low pressure system from the western US pushes east through Montana Monday night. Highs on Monday will again reach into the lower 60s, however, clouds will increase from the west as the trough approaches.
High pressure will remain lodged over the region to close out the weekend and kick off the work week. Otherwise, most records on Sunday are in the lower 90s which should be safe if today's forecast pans out.
By mid/late afternoon, winds will become southerly in response to a low pressure trough developing in the lee of the Rockies.
Most of the skies were clear past midnight, with the exception of the coastal regions, allowing for temperatures to cool down to the low to mid 50s along areas north of I-10, the low 60s along areas south of I-10, and the low 70s in Galveston. Showers expected across the local waters today moving into coastal regions tonight as the old frontal boundary transitions to a warm front and begins to shift north. Because the sounding model data is very dry at the low levels along the coastal regions this afternoon and through early tonight along the northern regions, kept PoPs at 20 percent or less.
1042 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020 Update Low pressure will move northeast of Lower Michigan today with strong winds gusting over 40 mph into this evening along with some rain showers. Conditions will improve for Monday and he rest of the week looks fair with temperatures cooler than average. Additonally, showers will continue to develop as the upper low moves closer.
The upper level low will continue to push through the region today bringing broad forcing across the region. However the occlusion and the corresponding low level TROWAL is beginning to push in with the backside of the upper level low.
As a result, weak ridging aloft continues to deamplify and upper level winds will turn more zonally by sunrise. The trough axis will cross over the region Monday, and showers will generally diminish as we fall back under northwest flow. Southwest flow should carry warmer air across the region today. Expect a mild night tonight due to increased cloud cover with the trough passage preventing lows from plummeting by sunrise.
just a few high clouds moving northeast across the area today ahead of an approaching upper level trough. moisture in the 850-500mb layer increases along and east of the CO/KS border during the afternoon before decreasing slowly across the west late in the day as drier air moves in behind an upper trough axis.
A mid/upper level trough approaching the region will result in an increase in rain showers through midday as a frontal boundary sweeps inland. The warning trend will continue region-wide through at least midweek as high pressure builds in from the Pacific and the storm track remains well to the north. This is as the ridge of high pressure does not appear to strengthen as much as previously thought with broad troughing over the West. This will likely be accompanied by cooler than average temperatures as well as weather systems drop southward down the West Coast. SFO Bridge Approach. Generally light winds will continue through the weekend into early week as high pressure moves over the southern California waters.
Despite some lingering snow pack, with the high sun angles & plentiful sunshine most areas along and east of I-25 should see 50+ degree readings for highs today.
705 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020 Aviation Low pressure will move northeast of Lower Michigan today with strong winds gusting over 40 mph into this evening along with some rain showers. Conditions will improve for Monday and he rest of the week looks fair with temperatures cooler than average.
854 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020 Another dry and hot day is on tap, with highs in the mid to upper 80s along the coast and in the lower to mid 90s inland. High pressure will keep light SE flow turning onshore near the coast in the afternoon over the coastal waters for today.
538 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020 Periodic showers and isolated thunderstorms can be expected through the morning with the approach and passage of a cold front.
GAH MORNING DISCUSSION: An upper level ridge that brought sunny skies and warm temperatures over the region continues through today and Monday. Many areas can expect to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with some locations reaching into the lower 60s. The ridge will transition to southwesterly flow before a low pressure system from the western US pushes east through Montana Monday night. Highs on Monday will again reach into the lower 60s, however, clouds will increase from the west as the trough approaches.
519 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020 Showers along with some thunderstorms are expected Sunday as a cold front moves east across the state.
623 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020 Updated for 12Z aviation discussion 12Z TAF discussion: The cold front has moved to the east of the area this morning and all TAF sites have become VFR. /15/ The cold front will move east of the area early this morning with a few more showers possible in the southeast, but high pressure will build in this morning and continue through tonight. /15/ Tomorrow's high temperatures will be a couple degrees cooler than today in the wake of this mornings storms. Instead, the narrow ridging sets up in a more SE/NW orientation over the SErn CONUS, keeping the winds more easterly.
A vertically-stacked low pressure system over southeast MN was lifting northeast toward the forecast area, and showers were already starting to move back into central WI. Foggy and showery weather is expected this morning as the low arrives and the pressure gradient bags out. As the low lifts northeast later in the day, northwest winds will start to pull cooler air into the region, leading to a mix of rain/snow in north central WI. Showers will gradually taper off later this evening and overnight as the low continues to pull out of the region. High pressure will arrive on Monday, leading to a decrease in cloud cover from west to east. Highs will range from the upper 30s and lower 40s northeast to the lower 50s southwest.
1007 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020 High pressure at the surface was noted from the western North Atlantic through the northern Bahamas and central Florida Peninsula this morning. Aloft, deep ridging with 500 mb heights near 593 Dm was aligned from the Yucatan Peninsula through Florida. Small craft are urged to exercise caution in Hawk Channel tonight, with even a brief small craft advisory possibly required over the open Straits west of Seven Mile Bridge.
412 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020 Bands of rain and snow continue to rotate around an upper low, which is crawling northeast across Dakota County early this morning during its occlusion process. The upper low will begin accelerating to the east later this morning. Northwest winds will gust to 35 mph today, but as the system departs this evening and surface ridging builds in overnight, winds will diminish and become light and variable by Monday morning. Mostly clear skies overnight and heavy precipitation from this weekend should promote areas of fog/freezing fog after midnight. A trough over the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest will be the main feature the active pattern focuses on.
An increasing onshore flow is expected today as a warm front develops within the region. /issued 345 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): The most recent surface analysis indicates a stationary front along the Lower Texas Coast. The stationary front is expected to transition to a warm front and slowly work back through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the period, maintaining the opportunity for isolated showers. Temperature-wise, with no significant cold air having been introduced with the passage of the cold front, near to above normal daytime high and overnight low temperatures are anticipated.
This boundary is expected to retreat northward as a warm front through the period with rain chances gradually increasing across the region. Temperatures will continue to run above normal, with highs in the low to mid 80s today and tomorrow, and tonight's lows in the mid 60s to near 70.
/issued 515 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020/ Satellite imagery shows clear skies behind the cold front that moved through late yesterday evening and early this morning. Current temperatures range from the low 50s to low 60s with more comfortable humidity levels as dew- points are in the mid 50s to low 60s. Drying will continue over the next couple of days as weak high pressure builds over the region.
722 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020 Showers along with some thunderstorms are expected Sunday as a cold front moves east across the state.
1236 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020 Bands of rain and snow continue to rotate around an upper low, which is crawling northeast across Dakota County early this morning during its occlusion process. The upper low will begin accelerating to the east later this morning. Northwest winds will gust to 35 mph today, but as the system departs this evening and surface ridging builds in overnight, winds will diminish and become light and variable by Monday morning. Mostly clear skies overnight and heavy precipitation from this weekend should promote areas of fog/freezing fog after midnight. A trough over the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest will be the main feature the active pattern focuses on.
205 PM MDT Sun Mar 29 2020 Afternoon GOES-R satellite composite showed a upper ridge axis from the MT/ND border south over the eastern WY/CO plains. Mid and upper level moisture was spreading from the Great Basin across UT, CO and WY ahead of the a Pacific trough. Clouds will continue to increase this afternoon and evening as the trough pushes east across the Four Corners.
111 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020 A strong cold front will head to the coast by tonight.
318 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020 A broad area of low pressure stretching from the Great lakes to New England will produce a mixed bag of precipitation across the area into Monday.
144 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020 Aviation Low pressure will move northeast of Lower Michigan today with strong winds gusting over 40 mph into this evening along with some rain showers. Conditions will improve for Monday and he rest of the week looks fair with temperatures cooler than average. Additonally, showers will continue to develop as the upper low moves closer.
Expect highs to top out a bit higher than expected, especially in areas that see less cloud cover and thus more mixing into warmer air aloft. The morning KGJT radiosonde sounding indicated a pronounced dry layer below 650mb, so expect any showers/radar returns to have a hard time making it to the ground today, especially over the lower valleys. By evening, moisture increases as a weak trough approaches from the west and PoP chances increase. Rain may change to snow as far west as Rifle and Montrose as well in the lower valleys, but accumulations below 7000 feet should be negligible.
203 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020 Warm and dry conditions continue for this afternoon and tomorrow under high pressure. Highs in the mid to upper 80s near the coast and in the lower 90s inland.
Clouds will continue to clear out quickly in the far eastern forecast area as strong low pressure to our east continues churning to the northeast and a ridge builds into the region today. Light winds and sunny skies will lead to a warmer day today with above average highs mostly in the 50s to around 60 degrees along and west river. Temperatures Monday will generally be a few degrees warmer than today. The next system begins to work its way towards the region Monday as low pressure over the High Plains pushes east and starts to become more organized. At the beginning of the period a broad mid-level trof is digging into the northwest CONUS with broadly diffluent flow across the Northern Plains.
A broad mid/upper trough pattern will continue across the eastern Conus through tonight and shift slightly east on Monday. Behind an exiting cold front, high pressure over the Ark/LA/Tex region will build over the TN Valley tonight, relaxing the pressure gradient that has brought gusty winds today. While highs tomorrow should be cooler due to the NW flow aloft and some high cloud cover, highs are expected to remain above normal, in the mid/upper 60s to lower 70s. The extended begins with troughing and unsettled weather across the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians.
Pacific high pressure will continue to build into the area from the west today. /issued 515 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020/ Satellite imagery shows clear skies behind the cold front that moved through late yesterday evening and early this morning. Current temperatures range from the low 50s to low 60s with more comfortable humidity levels as dew- points are in the mid 50s to low 60s. Drying will continue over the next couple of days as weak high pressure builds over the region.
Current WV imagery shows a powerful low pressure system moving into the Great Lakes region with the next disturbance making landfall on the West Coast. This allows a strong high pressure system to be in place over the region for today with lighter winds and near normal temperatures. The high pressure system will be progressive and will move off into the Mississippi Valley. This low pressure center with this system will remain too far to the south to allow moisture levels to get too high or allow the atmosphere to become too unstable.
323 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020 Sunshine occasionally interupted by patchy flat cumulus was noted this afternoon with temperatures in the mid 80s and dewpoints in the lower 70s.
1048 AM MDT Sun Mar 29 2020 07z surface analysis had low over southeast MN with weak ridge over the northern Rockies into the central plains. Water vapour had ridging over the northern Rockies heading our way. Today/tonight, upper ridge shifts east with weak warm air advection in the lower troposphere.
Periodic MVFR will quickly become VFR this morning behind the passage of a cold front.
309 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020 High pressure will build across the area behind a cold front currently moving southeast across middle Georgia this afternoon.
The potent mid-latitude cyclone that brought very strong winds to the area and severe weather to the central portions of the CONUS yesterday as continued it track to the northeast and currently centered over the Great Lakes region. Another low amplitude trough is amplifying over the southwestern United States. High pressure and a downslope flow regime is in place more near the surface across the forecast area in between the two main weather systems. Slightly lower temperatures across northern areas are slower to return to the south as the area is in overall transition of high pressure regimes and situated in somewhat of a "col" zone.
342 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020 Cold front passage this evening will herald more seasonal temperature for the upcoming week. Some light showers are possible later tonight for areas north of PIT as cold advection ensues under upper troughing. Increasing clouds and the risk for a passing shower on Monday with upper troughing and cold advection on northwest flow.
248 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020 Strong westerly winds will continue through early this evening before diminishing overnight as high pressure builds into the region. High pressure will build into the Midwest on Monday, leading to plenty of sunshine and light winds with highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
The surface cold front, identified by a dewpoint gradient, still appears to be across Middle TN but all precip has been associated with mid-upper level forcing, which has cleared the area. With the cold front lagging to the west, we will continue to see mild temperatures today with clearing skies, and highs will reach well into the 70s in most spots.
302 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020 Current conditions across the area features the cold front which has passed through eastern Kentucky and is now crossing the Appalachian Range. A secondary trough is pushing through Kentucky right now. Despite the clearing skies tonight, the winds remaining up a bit will keep the ridge to valley temperature difference minimal with only a 5 degree difference in most places. By Monday, will expect high pressure to be in control with a continued gradient, so will expect to see some 15 to 20 knot gusts into the afternoon. Continued westerly flow will keep temps warmer with highs topping in the middle 60s. A slightly cooler air mass in place will keep lows in the 40s Monday night but an approaching low from the south west will bring in cloud cover.
217 PM MDT Sun Mar 29 2020 Afternoon GOES-R satellite composite showed a upper ridge axis from the MT/ND border south over the eastern WY/CO plains. Mid and upper level moisture was spreading from the Great Basin across UT, CO and WY ahead of the a Pacific trough. Clouds will continue to increase this afternoon and evening as the trough pushes east across the Four Corners.
220 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020 Much quieter weather across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon, with only scattered to broken bands of high cirrus passing across the Deep South in wake of a weak cold front. Expect high clouds to increase overnight ahead of a developing low pressure system across the Coastal Plains of Texas. Thus, expect a dry and cooler night with benign weather conditions.
The next significant system to affect the region will begin to take shape late tonight into early Monday as a short wave trough moves from the West Coast eastward into the Southern Plains. This was included in southern parts of the area, but only a slight chance mention at this time due to the uncertainty of the low track and the availability of warm sector instability. Nevertheless, it does appear that rainfall in the amount of around an inch or more will be possible along the northern side of the low pressure center as it moves across the area.
1212 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020 High pressure offshore will bring summer-like temperatures today. A dry cold front will move offshore tonight, followed by weak high pressure Monday.
Weak overrunning will allow for some showers to also develop and increase across our western terminals through mid to late morning on Monday with a warm front gradually beginning to lift back north from the coast late in the period. /issued 1116 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020/ Dominant high pressure at the sfc will continue to shift east across the region today with cirrus increasing from the west.
Winds will relax tonight as high pressure is over the area. Looking out west, a trough will eject out of the Southwest CONUS tomorrow morning and make an eastward trek through the day.
150 PM MDT Sun Mar 29 2020 Seeing showers develop across the region as a low pressure system tracks through the Great Basin. A cold front will arrive Monday night bringing a strong push of moisture with it.
118 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020 Gusty winds and isolated thunderstorms today with the approach and passage of a cold front. Strong winds will persist the afternoon ahead and behind a crossing cold front currently over central Ohio. CAPE values are expected below 500 and 1000j/kg on average in a relatively narrow band just ahead of the cold front. Increasing clouds and the risk for a passing shower on Monday with upper troughing, the return of cold advection, and northwest flow.
A warm front continues to push north through the evening, with onshore flow and some scattered showers moving through the area.
1242 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020 08Z water vapor imagery shows a closed low lifting over the Upper Midwest. A third upper low could be see over the Gulf of Alaska. At the surface, a low pressure system was lifting into WI and weak ridging was filling in behind this system across the southern and central plains. The main affect of this is to shift the higher POPs south, although still maintaining likely POPs across most of the forecast area.
357 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020 An upper-level ridge strengthening across the northern Plains has allowed for clear skies today, and these will continue during the overnight hours.
An upper level trough will move east across the Southwest tonight and into the Central Plains Monday, with a significant return of low level moisture occurring late tonight, resulting in low clouds coming back in full force, with perhaps some light showers coming in by sunrise Monday. With the moist, southerly flow returning tonight, we'll see warmer overnight temperatures, with lows in the mid 50s. With more sunshine and earlier access to the dry westerly downsloping, post- frontal winds, our western half of the forecast area may get decently warm Monday, with highs in the low 80s, while elsewhere we're looking at highs in the low to mid 70's.