Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
731 PM EDT Sat May 7 2022 Low pressure was centered along the Virginia coast and will drift southeast tonight with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the region. High pressure, along with cooler and drier weather build in for Sunday.
Post-frontal stratus continues to stream in from the north and east today, keeping temperatures on the cooler side for southern Indiana and central Kentucky.
/issued 211 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): The heat is on! High temperatures across the CWA currently range from the low 90s east to low 100s out west and heat indices across much of the area above 100. A 500 mb ridge continues to build across the Southern Plains which will continue to keep warm air and dry conditions in place over Deep South Texas through the period. This ridging along with onshore flow will help temperatures feel much warmer than they are. Heat indices are above 100 degrees today and we are expecting much of the same, maybe even a touch warmer for Sunday.
405 AM EDT Sun May 8 2022 Cooler than normal temperatures expected through early this week as an upper level low moves off the Carolina coast and considerable clouds linger today.
Overall, with strong low pressure and ample moisture available, expect widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area through the day Monday.
Tonight Through Monday H500 NW flow across the region will give way to ridging on Sunday that is likely to linger and intensify across the area in the coming days.
As an upper low over the Mid Atlantic region moves south along the Atlantic Coast, an upper ridge stretching northeast from Mexico to over the Great Lakes shifts east, building as it moves due to an upper trough digging south over the northwestern Conus, squeezing the ridge. High temperatures in the low to mid 80s with some upper 80s locally Sunday will rise mid 80s to around 90 on Monday.
229 AM MDT Sun May 8 2022 08z surface analysis had low pressure over southeast SD with trailing cold front into the NE panhandle/CO. Water vapour loop depicted upper ridge from TX into the Great Lakes and west/southwest flow aloft over the northern Plains. Left exit region over cold front supporting band of shra/TS from northeast CO into southern MN within low MUCAPE regime, some of which is affecting south central SD. Lee cyclogenesis occurs over CO along aforementioned cold front, quickly move northeast overnight into eastern SD.
Surface analysis shows an area of low pressure off the coasts of VA/NC, with an associated diffuse cold front currently stalled over Central FL. Aloft, an amplified trough previously supporting the system has moved out over the Atlantic waters. Without this upper level forcing, the cold front will slowly wash out today as it sags southward across South FL. Ridging will build in from the Gulf of Mexico later tonight as the front moves out and flow will turn northeasterly, bringing drier air and limiting chances for rain on Monday. Temperatures will remain warm today, with highs in the low 90s.
Temperatures will gradually warm as high pressure strengthens over the region through the week. A Rex blocking pattern has set up along the eastern United States with high pressure over eastern Canada and the Northeast and low pressure over the coastal Carolinas. With high pressure locked in place for the next few days, anticipate warming temperatures and continued dry conditions.
310 AM EDT Sun May 8 2022 Discussion/Marine/FireWeather - Becoming much warmer this week - Temps will undergo a significant moderating trend for the upcoming week as an upper level ridge amplifies over our region.
Upper level ridging is pushing into the Mid-South. A developing omega block over the CONUS will strengthen the upper ridging over the Mid-South this week.
228 AM CDT Sun May 8 2022 Cloud cover continues to hold on this morning, especially in the east, and that will likely be the story for the remainder of the morning hours as the upper trough slides east and ridging moves into its place aloft. Temperatures will warm up today thanks to the ridge and partly cloudy skies. Getting into the day Monday, the ridge will continue to build over the region, and 850 mb temps will climb into the mid to upper teens C, which will allow for highs to get into the low to mid 80s for most locations west of the Plateau.
303 AM CDT Sun May 8 2022 Unseasonably cool weather continues across the greater Tennessee Valley, as colder air from high pressure over eastern Canada builds southward. This flow was also being directed southward on the western periphery of low pressure now east of the VA/NC coast.
Conditions as of 05Z are showing a line of thunderstorms moving through central Nebraska with an associated cold front that is moving through northwest Kansas. For today we will start out with quite a bit of moisture in our central and eastern zones with low clouds and stratus and the cold front will be moving through sunrise to around the highway 183 corridor. This will bring back in drier air and warmer temperatures by the late afternoon. An upper level ridge will extend from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes region with a large long wave trough across the western United States.
/Issued 232 PM EDT Sat May 7 2022/ Much cooler temperatures are in place across the area today behind the cold front that swept through last night. Breezy and cloudy conditions have persisted for most of the area as well as moisture wraps around the upper low situated over the Mid Atlantic. This cooler northeast flow and early cloud cover will keep temperatures on Sunday relatively cool, mainly in the low-to-mid 70s, which is several degrees below normal. We then shift gears to what is a rather abnormal setup as the low stalled off the Southeast coast starts to retrograde westward since other trough energy is blocked/confined well west of the region with the upper ridge persisting between.
Upper ridging will build over the eastern half of the country today as an upper trough deepens over the western CONUS. A blocking pattern sets up over the country for the new week as upper ridging continues to build between large scale troughing to the west and a closed low anchored over the Atlantic.
(This evening through Sunday) As warm front returns northward tonight and tomorrow, which will become oriented northwest to southeast just east of panhandles dryline, more low clouds can be expected tonight and tomorrow morning.
Tonight and Monday, the area of low pressure to the northeast of Florida will push a dry backdoor cold front through the forecast area, allowing winds to turn to north and northeasterly.
The forecast period starts off with a strong mid-level ridge stretching from the lower Mississippi valley, northeast toward the eastern Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a broadly diverse upper trof will cover much of the northwestern CONUS. As upper ridging pushes into the forecast area, warmer aloft will also advect into the Northern Plains.
1256 AM CDT Sun May 8 2022 An upper level disturbance and associated Pacific cold front operating across UT/WY this afternoon will move into wrn Nebraska this afternoon/evening triggering a fairly robust area of thunderstorms. The NAM and RAP models accordingly, are suggesting a low bulk Richardson number which increases along a sfc cold front progged to move through the region late this afternoon and tonight. The CAMs are probably developing the segments along and just behind the cold front and represent the predicted storm mode for this forecast. This should lift a warm front back north and the models are in very good agreement developing thunderstorms north of Interstate 80. A check on the NAM and RAP models shows lapse rates becoming steep with the approach of the warm front.
Mid to upper level ridging remains the main story for the short term as highs range from near 90 along the coast to 105 over the Rio Grande Plains. These hot temperatures along with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s will lead to dangerous heat index values. Strong warm air advection in the low-levels will promote heating whereas a tightening surface pressure gradient will lead to breezy to windy conditions with wind gusts around 30 mph. The NBM has had a cold bias lately compared to observations and therefore went a couple degrees warmer. 1000-500mb thickness do slightly decrease leading to a degree or two cooler max temperatures.
154 AM EDT Sun May 8 2022 Low pressure was centered along the Virginia coast and will drift southeast tonight with light rain over the region. High pressure, along with cooler and drier weather build in for Sunday.
Breezy S/SE winds wl cont to incrs acrs the area today, allowing warmer and more humid air to spread into the region. Meanwhile, H500 ridge axis initially acrs AR, is progged to shift just to the E the area by Mon. Some model data hint at low QPF amts ovr our the NW part of the FA early Mon as a weak impulse traverses the area on the Wrn periphery of the ridge. Highs on Mon wl range fm the mid 80s to the lower 90s.
Upper ridging has set up over the Mid-West/Mississippi River Valley with the main ridge axis just to the east of the CWA. With this ridge being sandwiched between upper toughs over the western CONUS and the western Atlantic, it should stall close to it's current position through the beginning of the week. This pattern will promote warmer than normal temperatures through mid-week, and most will experience their first 90-degree temperatures of the year by today or Monday.
Once the aforementioned trough axis moves east of the area, upper level ridging over the central CONUS begins to move over the Southeast. High pressure builds across the region resulting in a stretch of warming temperatures and dry weather that continues past the short term period. Afternoon highs Sunday are forecast to be in the upper 70s and into the lower 80s by Monday. With high pressure in control across the Southeast, temperatures soar into the upper 80s to lower 90s by the middle of the workweek.
1004 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022 The warm front has become defuse this eve acrs central Louisiana as weak southeast flow continues into the region. During this time an upper level ridge will build overhead.
Decreasing clouds and warmer temperatures today. Discussion: In the upper levels, a ridge will build into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today and tonight. At the surface, high pressure centered near Maine will extend down into the Southeast. Temps will be warmer today with mostly sunny skies this afternoon.
Upper level ridging will build over the southeast, keeping a trough east of the area. A shallow layer of moisture across mainly north GA this morning will shift east as the upper ridge builds into the area. Atwell High pressure and dry conditions are anticipated through the middle of the week.
The pattern for the foreseeable future has the Central Plains under southwest flow, with a large upper trough extending from the Eastern Pacific to the Bighorns of Wyoming, and a ridge just east of the Ohio River Valley.
300 AM EDT Sun May 8 2022 Upper level ridging will continue to expand over the area today and especially into the upcoming week as an upper level blocking pattern sets up with the large ridge over the eastern CONUS with upper low and/or troughing over the western CONUS and also the far western Atlantic Ocean.
Dry conditions will continue through the remainder of the weekend as high pressure settles moves in through Sunday. As the upper level trough that brought in the cold front moves further east Sunday, winds will not be as breezy tomorrow as they switch to the north and northeast by Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will be slightly warmer tomorrow and generally range from the mid to upper 80s in our Florida counties to the mid 80s across southeast AL and SW Georgia. The upper level low will have moved offshore of the Carolinas and an upper level ridge will be building in from the west at the start of the short term.
A cold upper low will move into the Pacific NW tomorrow bringing another round of showers and afternoon thunderstorms. A large-scale deep upper trough will continue across the region through the period. A series of disturbances embedded within the trough, along with instability, will promote periods of showers and isolated afternoon-evening thunderstorms. Additional light snow accumulations are expected in the higher elevations - mainly above 4500 feet. There is a slight chance for minor snow accumulations in the lower valleys Monday morning, although any accumulations would be limited to grassy areas with temperatures forecast to remain above freezing.
Very mild conditions on tap for Sunday night, with lows generally in the lower 70s.
Generally clear skies tonight, with perhaps some cirrus near us in the west as a warm front tries to edge closer to area. However this warm front will only serve a glancing blow as a ridge will be in place across the eastern CONUS. This ridge will force the main low to slide northward from the Central Plains to the Northern Plains. With high pressure in place and minimum clouds Monday, highs will warm up in the upper 80s in the south and west to upper 70s to low 80s in the northeast.
With the southeast on the backside of an upper level quasistationary trough that is currently off the coast of Virginia and North Carolina, expect another sunny and dry day.
Southeast winds will become breezy to windy near the coast, and the TAF sites, due to interaction between Plains low pressure and Gulf higher pressure. /issued 211 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): The heat is on! High temperatures across the CWA currently range from the low 90s east to low 100s out west and heat indices across much of the area above 100. A 500 mb ridge continues to build across the Southern Plains which will continue to keep warm air and dry conditions in place over Deep South Texas through the period. This ridging along with onshore flow will help temperatures feel much warmer than they are. Heat indices are above 100 degrees today and we are expecting much of the same, maybe even a touch warmer for Sunday.
Sunday should then be a pleasant day with noticeably warmer temps into the lower 70s. Post-frontal stratus continues to stream in from the north and east today, keeping temperatures on the cooler side for southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Mid and upper level ridging is already in place over the Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday and gradually amplifies with time. An omega block develops between a western US upper level trough and a closed low over the western Atlantic Ocean.
325 AM EDT Sun May 8 2022 Dry weather is expected well into this week, as high pressure to our north keep any rain to our south. However, daily sea breezes will keep the coast cooler.
Combined with sunshine, afternoon temperatures will warm well into the low 80s for areas west of Highway 39, mid to upper 70s east of 39.
/issued 1004 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022/ The warm front has become defuse this eve acrs central Louisiana as weak southeast flow continues into the region. During this time an upper level ridge will build overhead.
603 AM EDT Sun May 8 2022 Northeastern high pressure influence persists across the region today providing clear and dry conditions. Upper level ridging will continue to expand over the area today and especially into the upcoming week as an upper level blocking pattern sets up with the large ridge over the eastern CONUS with upper low and/or troughing over the western CONUS and also the far western Atlantic Ocean.
Upper ridging will build across the ArkLaMiss today with warmer temperatures. Highs today will range from the low 80s in the north to around 90 in the south. The quiet conditions will continue tonight with lows ranging from the low 60s in the east to the upper 60s in the west. /15/ Monday through Sunday: First heat wave of the season is expected as a warming trend leading to near record temperatures will occur through mid week before rain chances return along with cooler temperatures for the weekend. An omega block will have developed by Monday with our CWA beneath the upper level ridging.
A cold front moves into the North Bay this morning with rain showers that will dissipate south of the Golden Gate through this afternoon.
The end result will be a mostly sunny day across area as subsidence from a high pressure ridge building in becomes more dominant. Colder air rounding the east coast low will create a west to east gradient in temperatures, with lows ranging from the lower 50s NE AL to upper 50s NW AL. Lows Monday night should range from the lower 50s east to around 60 west.
Dry and warmer weather returns late this week. Current temperatures are running around 5-10 degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago and are generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s across the valley. Shower and thunderstorm chances will spread south across much of the region this afternoon with snow expected to develop across the higher northern Sierra passes.
Temperatures along the island chain are in the mid to upper 70s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. A large low pressure system is taking shape over the extreme western North Atlantic, fueled by a mid to upper level cyclone and a gaggle of occluding baroclinic boundaries. Additionally, the upper level ridge axis parked near the Mississippi River Valley will direct subsidence and drier mid-level air to the southeast through the Keys.
The next couple of nights' temperatures are anticipated to drop below freezing for most locations, with the exception being the lower valleys of Idaho and Clearwater counties. Confidence is slowly increasing that a ridge of high pressure will be over the area by the weekend, causing a period of warming and drying. Temperatures will drop down to around or below freezing tonight.
Ahhh, big bubble no trouble! As an upper low over the Mid Atlantic region drifts southeast along the Atlantic Coast, an upper ridge will build over the Mississippi Valley bringing dry northwesterly flow aloft. High temperatures in the low to mid 80s with some upper 80s locally Sunday.
647 AM CDT Sun May 8 2022 H5 analysis tonight had a closed low over the Mid-Atlantic with a trough extending south into Florida. West of this feature, ridging extended from the Ozarks north northeast into Hudson Bay Canada. West of this feature, closed low pressure was located over northern Alberta with a trough extending south into the northwestern CONUS. At the surface, a cold front extended from near O'Neill south southwest into northwestern Kansas. Troughing across the western CONUS will amplify midweek. At the same time, high pressure will strengthen across the Arklatex into the lower Ohio Valley.
Unseasonably cool weather continues across the greater Tennessee Valley, as colder air from high pressure over eastern Canada builds southward. This flow was also being directed southward on the western periphery of low pressure now east of the VA/NC coast.
302 AM MDT Sun May 8 2022 MORNING DISCUSSION: An upper level trough continues to slowly make its way eastward and will bring cooler and more unsettled weather over the next couple days. Currently the eastern half of our region has the highest chance of receiving a wetting rain. Wind speeds are expected to increase tomorrow as the trough continues to nudge eastward.
1056 AM EDT Sun May 8 2022 Low ceilings remain in place across much of north and east Georgia this morning, and hi-res guidance is trending slower on the timing of these clouds scattering out as upper level ridging builds in over the area. Upper level ridging will build over the southeast, keeping a trough east of the area. A shallow layer of moisture across mainly north GA this morning will shift east as the upper ridge builds into the area. Atwell High pressure and dry conditions are anticipated through the middle of the week.
1012 AM EDT Sun May 8 2022 The front will continue to gradually settle through the area today as high pressure builds in from the north tonight and drier air continues to move in. Temps are on track to reach into the mid to upper 80s near the coast to the lower 90s inland. A front will continue to move through the coastal waters today as high pressure builds into the area from the north.
Breezy SE winds later in the mrng wl allow the low clouds to scattered out. Breezy S/SE winds wl cont to incrs acrs the area today, allowing warmer and more humid air to spread into the region. Meanwhile, H500 ridge axis initially acrs AR, is progged to shift just to the E the area by Mon. Some model data hint at low QPF amts ovr our the NW part of the FA early Mon as a weak impulse traverses the area on the Wrn periphery of the ridge. Highs on Mon wl range fm the mid 80s to the lower 90s.
A strong low level thermal ridge will remain over the area today, but will be a bit farther north compared to yesterday. The ridge axis will be just east of the area today, so some isolated storms may have a better chance of developing, as convective inhibition weakens. Temperatures will be warm again tonight, with overnight lows mainly in the lower 70s.
1021 AM EDT Sun May 8 2022 Dry weather is expected well into this week, as high pressure to our north keeps any rain to our south. However, daily sea breezes will keep the coast much cooler.
Then breezes will turn northerly late tonight and freshen on Monday as high pressure extends across the southeastern United States.
409 AM CDT Sun May 8 2022 H5 analysis tonight had a closed low over the Mid-Atlantic with a trough extending south into Florida. West of this feature, ridging extended from the Ozarks north northeast into Hudson Bay Canada. West of this feature, closed low pressure was located over northern Alberta with a trough extending south into the northwestern CONUS. At the surface, a cold front extended from near O'Neill south southwest into northwestern Kansas. Troughing across the western CONUS will amplify midweek. At the same time, high pressure will strengthen across the Arklatex into the lower Ohio Valley.
Several weak short waves will push around the base of upper level trof near the Pacific coast and will continue to have periods of rain and snow showers with isolated afternoon thunderstorms today. Expect below freezing low temperatures everywhere tonight and Monday night.
545 AM MDT Sun May 8 2022 A broad area of low pressure still resides over the Pacific Northwest and stretches well into British Columbia this morning.
Cloud cover continues to hold on this morning, especially in the east, and that will likely be the story for the remainder of the morning hours as the upper trough slides east and ridging moves into its place aloft. Temperatures will warm up today thanks to the ridge and partly cloudy skies. Getting into the day Monday, the ridge will continue to build over the region, and 850 mb temps will climb into the mid to upper teens C, which will allow for highs to get into the low to mid 80s for most locations west of the Plateau.
653 AM EDT Sun May 8 2022 Cooler than normal temperatures expected through early this week as an upper level low moves off the Carolina coast and considerable clouds linger today.
921 AM CDT Sun May 8 2022 Convective activity has mostly waned this morning, and will likely remain on the low side until instability can develop this afternoon. Overall, with strong low pressure and ample moisture available, expect widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area through the day Monday.
Temperatures will cool off a bit through the work week although they will remain warmer than normal.
Pressure increases aloft tomorrow as a mid-level ridge amplifies over the Ohio River Valley. Temperatures at the 850 hPa level will warm to near +25C by tomorrow afternoon as temperatures near the surface surge into the low 90s.
717 AM EDT Sun May 8 2022 Dry weather is expected well into this week, as high pressure to our north keep any rain to our south. However, daily sea breezes will keep the coast cooler.
739 AM EDT Sun May 8 2022 Aviation - Becoming much warmer this week - Temps will undergo a significant moderating trend for the upcoming week as an upper level ridge amplifies over our region.