Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As storms try to migrate off the terrain they will encounter some very warm mid level temperatures that will work to cap off storms over the lower elevations, leading to clouds, virga, gusty winds and possibly a few lightning strikes but little in the way of precipitation outside of the mountains and adjacent foothills. Cooler air aloft associated with the wave will help break the convective cap providing a better chance for showers and thunderstorms from mid morning through the afternoon. Temperatures will be about 5 degrees cooler on Thursday with more cloud cover and the cooler air aloft mixing down.
At the surface, a cold front pushes south toward the FA reaching central IL by Thursday morning and into the NE part of the FA Thursday afternoon. Will trim POPs some Thursday from the high likely values previously in some areas.
Temperatures will be noticeably warmer today with highs in the 90s south of the MO River and in the upper 80s to the north. A mid to upper level ridge builds into the Central Plains starting Thursday evening, allowing seasonally warm temperatures to build back into the region into the weekend as highs get into the lower 90s.
The focus for thunderstorms shifts west tomorrow as a weak cold front slowly presses into the region.
Expected this activity to continue through this evening as upslope flow persists along the higher terrain and additional storms develop along lingering outflow boundaries across the plains.
The increase in moisture and mid to high clouds across the region will result in temps being slightly cooler on Thursday as per the going forecast and only made slight temp changes.
1050 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2020 08z surface analysis had lee trough from central MT into eastern CO and weak high over the upper Midwest.
615 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Isolated showers and storms will be possible this evening as a cold front pushes south through the area.
819 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020 A broad subtropical ridge remains in place across the southern CONUS this evening.
800 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Upper level ridging will prevail into Thursday, before giving way to an upper trough Thursday night. A front will drop across the area late in the week, with the upper trough persisting through most of the weekend. The upper trough will result in somewhat unsettled conditions, and slightly cooler temperatures. Fair weather expected overnight with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and low temperatures in the low to mid 70s. The southern portion of the forecast area will be a little drier than the northern part, so kept the highest pops north.
The remaining showers over or near northeast Oklahoma are expected to dissipate by Midnight with the loss of heating and as they drift to the west of the high-level trough axis that is moving slowly east across the area. A few showers or thunderstorms could develop later tonight in that environment as the high-level trough moves across the area. a ridge of high pressure is progged to begin expanding and building back over the region.
An onshore flow and slightly cooler than normal temperatures can be expected over much of the district tonight through Thursday.
955 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020 A cold front will move into the area later overnight and early Thursday morning, providing continued chances for showers, even a few thunderstorms. High pressure will move in behind the front Thursday night and bring drier and slightly less humid air through the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms remain a possibility, but the highest threat of thunder resides in the southeast earlier in the day. Highs will be in the lower 80s for most locations, and overnight lows will finally drop into the mid and upper 60s with slightly cooler dewpoints being brought in behind the front.
1031 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Upper level ridging will prevail into Thursday, before giving way to an upper trough Thursday night. A front will drop across the area late in the week, with the upper trough persisting through most of the weekend. The upper trough will result in somewhat unsettled conditions, and slightly cooler temperatures. Fair weather expected overnight with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and low temperatures in the low to mid 70s. The southern portion of the forecast area will be a little drier than the northern part, so kept the highest pops north.
The w-e upper ridge will continue to suppress and narrow over the next 24 hours.
904 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020 As a weak cold front slowly approaches the Commonwealth, at least scattered showers and thunderstorms will be in the forecast into Thursday evening.
927 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Atlantic high pressure will continue to dominate through much of the upcoming week with a weak trough of low pressure inland. Latest sfc analysis continues to show strong ridging at the surface and aloft. Expect highs in the low to mid 90s inland and upper 80s along the beaches with heat indices ranging 100-105. A more unsettled pattern develops late week into the weekend as ridge breaks down and a trough and weak front sink into the region.
Thursday will be slightly cooler, although still warm. A cold front will also bring more widespread showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. Ridging has brought the return of 90 degree temperatures to much of the CWA. As this ridge moves eastward, a weak disturbance from the southwest may bring a few isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Thursday continues to look interesting as cold front meets warm relatively unstable air.
Beginning this evening, a relatively strong low pressure trough at the surface develops, and over the next few days will slowly move from west to east across the region.
751 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020 A cold front will move into the area later overnight and early Thursday morning, providing continued chances for showers, even a few thunderstorms. High pressure will move in behind the front Thursday night and bring drier and slightly less humid air through the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms remain a possibility, but the highest threat of thunder resides in the southeast earlier in the day. Highs will be in the lower 80s for most locations, and overnight lows will finally drop into the mid and upper 60s with slightly cooler dewpoints being brought in behind the front.
Lows overnight warmer than this morning with SE winds keeping some mixing ongoing with lows in the mid 50s east and low 60s west. High pressure currently over northern MN will move further eastward, allowing southeasterly winds to pick up overnight.
Rather brisk onshore flow through the lower to mid levels wl remain favorable for some onshore moving showers through the overnight.
308 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Scattered thunderstorms over the mountains this afternoon as mid level moisture continues to flow into the region around the periphery of srn plains upper ridge. Overall, expect convection to persist into the evening over the higher terrain, then gradually fade after sunset, although enough upper level forcing may remain in place over the swrn mountains to keep at least a few showers going through much of the night.
546 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2020 500 mb RAP analysis and satellite imagery showed an upper ridge building across the Rockies early this afternoon, with weak northwest flow over the region. The upper ridge moves onto the Plains on Thursday with an upper trough to its west, placing the region under southwest flow aloft. Models are still showing the local area under the influence of a strong upper-level high and ridge over the Plains that is producing weak southwesterly flow aloft over the Central High Plains region. For the start of next work week, the high will move more southwestward, towards the desert southwest, allowing for a low pressure system, and its associated front to transit south over the Great Lakes and northern High Plains regions.
733 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Aviation High pressure will bring generally fair weather through the end of the week.
Compared to this time yesterday, convection early this afternoon was limited to scattered CU forming over the higher terrain. Upper level ridge will continue to persist over the intermountain west for the medium range to long range forecast.
326 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Scattered showers and storms are developing in the mountains, with isolated convection attempting to get going in the lower elevations as convective temps are met. The forecast is on track with more widespread coverage in the high country through the evening hours, as the support and deeper moisture ahead of the short wave in northern Utah lifts northward. On Thursday, the back edge of the weak trough axis/moisture plume will shift eastward in the morning. Highest coverage will be in the mountains again, and perhaps along a narrow convergence zone/lee trough stretching from the Palmer Divide into the northeast corner of the state. Highs will reach the lower to mid 90s on the plains, with 70s to mid 80s in the mountains and foothills.
737 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Upper level ridging will prevail into Thursday, before giving way to an upper trough Thursday night. A front will drop across the area late in the week, with the upper trough persisting through most of the weekend. The upper trough will result in somewhat unsettled conditions, and slightly cooler temperatures. Fair weather expected overnight with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and low temperatures in the low to mid 70s. The southern portion of the forecast area will be a little drier than the northern part, so kept the highest pops north.
825 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Isolated showers and storms will be possible this evening as a cold front pushes south through the area.
604 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020 226 PM CDT Spotty showers ahead of the cold front dropping through the area this afternoon have been the primary item of interest so far today. Dewpoints have already dropped into the lower 60s in northwest portions of the area farther behind the front, and 50s dewpoints are not too far away. Tomorrow should be quite pleasant with less moisture and afternoon highs a couple degrees below seasonal norms, and even cooler by the lake with an onshore breeze developing around mid day.
631 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Atlantic high pressure will continue to dominate through much of the upcoming week with a weak trough of low pressure inland. Latest sfc analysis continues to show strong ridging at the surface and aloft. Expect highs in the low to mid 90s inland and upper 80s along the beaches with heat indices ranging 100-105. A more unsettled pattern develops late week into the weekend as ridge breaks down and a trough and weak front sink into the region.
As has been the case the past couple of days, the high resolution models just are not handling the details of the current weather conditions well. Guidance is arguing for more cloud cover tomorrow, so have gone a degree or two cooler than today's highs.
Looking deeper into the forecast, ridge axis will exit for the Dakotas by noon allowing the area to destabilize with less cap. Beginning this evening, a relatively strong low pressure trough at the surface develops, and over the next few days will slowly move from west to east across the region.
Quiet conditions are expected for the next few days, as high pressure builds into the area.
Upper level low centered over the San Francisco Bay Area continues to be the main driver of today's weather across central and northern California. Storm Prediction Center depicts thunderstorm chances across the higher terrain of the Sierra and Coastal Range again today, with the best opportunity to our north and east. Temperatures are generally running at or several degrees cooler than this time 24 hours ago. The upper low will push inland and open over the next day with a longwave trough lingering over much of the West Coast.
The cold front arrived in our eastern counties around 1 PM. Afternoon temperatures over the local area range from the upper 70s north to the lower 80s central and east. Dewpoints are falling to the lower 60s in northeast Iowa, allowing for a much more comfortable day. With drier air moving in to the north now, and into the central areas tonight, we will see a wide diurnal range, with lows in the mid 50s north to lower 60s south, followed by highs warming that dry air into the lower to mid 80s Thursday.
650 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: VFR in the short term and overnight with light and variable winds under the ridge. The forecast period starts off tomorrow night with a 594dam ridge centered across the Middle Mississippi River Valley. At the same time, a tropical disturbance and associated inverted trough will be making westward progression across the Gulf of Mexico to the south of the ridge.
618 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Upper level heights will build over the region tonight through Thursday as warmer and more moist air makes it way into the region. Otherwise, a short wave trough coming up the back side of the upper ridge across the western part of the region may bring a few thunderstorms to the western cwa Thursday afternoon. An increasing llj into Thursday night combined with this upper trough will bring chances of storms across the north and northeast.
854 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020 As a weak cold front slowly approaches the Commonwealth, at least scattered showers and thunderstorms will be in the forecast into Thursday evening.
Upper level heights will build over the region tonight through Thursday as warmer and more moist air makes it way into the region. Otherwise, a short wave trough coming up the back side of the upper ridge across the western part of the region may bring a few thunderstorms to the western cwa Thursday afternoon. An increasing llj into Thursday night combined with this upper trough will bring chances of storms across the north and northeast.
Broad ridging continues this afternoon over the CONUS, with the strongest upper level flow remaining over the northern tier states. One of these perturbations is a remnant MCV over southeast Nebraska, leftover from convection over the High Plains last night. Tomorrow the ridge will strengthen some, with winds becoming more southerly. The weekend will see a gradual increase of heat and humidity across the region, as the upper ridge continues to slowly build.
The previous forecast was on track, just made minor tweaks to PoPs but outside of that, partly cloudy skies with lows in the lower to mid 70s can be expected. The forecast period starts off tomorrow night with a 594dam ridge centered across the Middle Mississippi River Valley. At the same time, a tropical disturbance and associated inverted trough will be making westward progression across the Gulf of Mexico to the south of the ridge.
Otherwise, winds will be light and variable through the night tonight and through tomorrow as high pressure moves across the central and northern portions of the state. Low pressure will slowly weaken and push eastward tonight, but it will bring another round of stratus to southern Wisconsin tonight into Wednesday morning. Cloud coverage should start to decrease Thursday afternoon with the upper level ridge setting up and high pressure moving in for the rest of the work week. Temperatures will be a little cooler tonight with most of the area dropping into the upper 50s, but areas along Lake Michigan should be in the low 60s. Highs tomorrow will be in the mid to upper 70s with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s.
810 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020 High pressure aloft will start to weaken Thursday as a weakening cold front approaches from the northwest. Ridging retreats southwest for the end of the week as the cold front stalls and dissipates.
624 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020 As a weak cold front slowly approaches the Commonwealth, at least scattered showers and thunderstorms will be in the forecast into Thursday evening.
The weakness aloft will gradually give way to stronger ridging during the day Thursday and we should see a little less coverage of showers/storms than we saw today.
Otherwise, current temps mainly in the mid/upper 70s look to fall more into the lower 70s heading into early Thu morning under partly/mostly cloudy skies. Latest model consensus suggests that a weak disturbance over the OH Valley will degenerate into a broad shear axis as it shifts eastward into the central Appalachians tomorrow, in the flow ahead of a stronger northern stream trough digging into the Great Lakes. The low- level boundary may tend to shift southward and out of the region late tomorrow or tomorrow night, driven by convective outflow.
509 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Compared to this time yesterday, convection early this afternoon was limited to scattered CU forming over the higher terrain. Upper level ridge will continue to persist over the intermountain west for the medium range to long range forecast.
641 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020 This afternoon, an area of low pressure resides over NE Colorado, with a weak warm front extending east into northern Kansas. South of the warm front, a compact mid-level ridge is centered over SE KS. While a few showers or thunderstorms cannot be ruled out this afternoon or evening, the thinking is subsidence beneath the mid-level ridge should keep the coverage very isolated. Over the next few days, the mid-level ridge will shift east into the Mid-MS Valley region, while the upper level ridge builds in across the Central Plains. 850-700 mb temps will gradually warm as well, which should support gradually warmer SFC temps each day.
1123 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020 As a weak cold front slowly approaches the Commonwealth, at least scattered showers and thunderstorms will be in the forecast into Thursday evening. Friday through the weekend looks drier, as high pressure builds back into the region. Lows by daybreak should range from the mid 60s over the higher terrain, to the lower 70s in the Susquehanna Valley. Afternoon highs will be a tad cooler Thursday, ranging from the upper 70s in the Alleghenies, to near 90 in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Lows by daybreak will range from near 60 in the northern mountains, to around 70 in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. As the cold front sags south of the Mason-Dixon Line on Friday, a few showers and thunderstorms will remain possible across far southern PA Friday afternoon.
1144 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020 This afternoon, an area of low pressure resides over NE Colorado, with a weak warm front extending east into northern Kansas. South of the warm front, a compact mid-level ridge is centered over SE KS. While a few showers or thunderstorms cannot be ruled out this afternoon or evening, the thinking is subsidence beneath the mid-level ridge should keep the coverage very isolated. Over the next few days, the mid-level ridge will shift east into the Mid-MS Valley region, while the upper level ridge builds in across the Central Plains. 850-700 mb temps will gradually warm as well, which should support gradually warmer SFC temps each day.
Upper level heights will build over the region tonight through Thursday as warmer and more moist air makes it way into the region. Otherwise, a short wave trough coming up the back side of the upper ridge across the western part of the region may bring a few thunderstorms to the western CWA Thursday afternoon. An increasing low level jet into Thursday night combined with this upper trough will bring chances of storms across the north and northeast. Will start Friday with southwest flow aloft as an upper trough deepens across the northern Rockies. Overnight the narrow axis of PVA inches eastwards, with a southwest to northeast surface/mid level trough.
High temperatures are expected to reach the mid 90s at most locations except for the warmer river valleys where a few 100s are possible. Easterly upslope flow will continue at the sfc which will contribute to afternoon thunderstorms mainly over the higher terrain west of the Pecos River Fri-Sun.
Unfortunately, the rain may be harder to come by Thursday as this shear axis dissolves in response to the amplifying upper ridge over the Srn Plains which will expand E to the Mid-South region, thus suppressing most convection development while in turn, resulting in an increase in the heat. Did not make much adjustments to the forecast min temps tonight, with temps expected to range from the lower to mid 70s once again. A sct cu field is expected by late morning through the afternoon, with isolated convection possible across portions of extreme NE TX/SE OK/SW AR near the weakening upper level disturbance, as well as across the Srn sections of Ncntrl LA well N of a slowly developing low pressure system drifting W across the Cntrl Gulf.
For temperatures today and Friday, trended towards the warmer models as we will have strong southerly winds which will help usher in warmer air and there will also be some good mixing occurring. 850 temperatures will range from the low 20s to near 30 degrees for today and 26 to 33 degrees on Friday. Some of the highest dewpoints will be seen across our eastern CWA today and Friday, this in combination with above normal temperatures has warranted a Heat Advisory.
CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 73 92 73 93 / 40 30 60 20 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 72 90 71 92 / 60 40 60 20 40 Oak Ridge, TN 91 71 91 70 92 / 60 40 60 20 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 68 86 67 90 / 60 50 60 20 40.
309 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 The mid-level pattern hasn't changed much since 24 hours ago with ridging over the majority of the country - the only exceptions being a low-amplitude trough over the Great Lakes and another trough sitting over the west coast. For today, the aforementioned ridge will slowly build over the central US allowing for southerly winds to continue, which will result in daytime temperatures fairly similar to yesterday if not a few degrees warmer. After reaching the low 90s today, another quiet night is expected with lows in the low 70s. A gradual warming trend is expected into the weekend as the ridge continues to build.
1129 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020 As a weak cold front slowly approaches the Commonwealth, at least scattered showers and thunderstorms will be in the forecast into Thursday evening. Friday through the weekend looks drier, as high pressure builds back into the region. Lows by daybreak should range from the mid 60s over the higher terrain, to the lower 70s in the Susquehanna Valley. Afternoon highs will be a tad cooler Thursday, ranging from the upper 70s in the Alleghenies, to near 90 in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Lows by daybreak will range from near 60 in the northern mountains, to around 70 in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. As the cold front sags south of the Mason-Dixon Line on Friday, a few showers and thunderstorms will remain possible across far southern PA Friday afternoon.
As the low to mid level flow becomes more southeasterly today, tropical moisture on the east side of the newly developed Tropical Depression #8 centered in the west central Gulf will lift northward across our forecast area. Highs in the lower 90s with lows in the lower to mid 70s.
The Pacific Coast trough will move into the Great Basin on Friday, nudging the ridge of high pressure eastward. Throughout the day, an upper level jet will straddle the forecast area as the west coast low weakens and opens into a broad trough. west coast low remains anchored off the California coast and high pressure cycling over the Southern Plains.
Temperatures will be a little cooler on Thursday and Friday with inland high temperatures in the upper 70s and coastal high temperatures in the 60s.
Warm and muggy overnight period with lows by daybreak ranging from the mid 60s over the higher terrain, to the lower 70s in the mid/lower Susquehanna Valley. Afternoon highs will be a tad cooler Thursday, ranging from the upper 70s in the Alleghenies, to near 90 in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Lows by daybreak will range from near 60 in the northern mountains, to around 70 in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. As the cold front sags south of the Mason-Dixon Line on Friday, a few showers and thunderstorms will remain possible across far southern PA Friday afternoon.