Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE WEEKEND.
152 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S RANGE LOOK TO BE ON TRACK.
619 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INCREASING CLOUDS AND BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. COLDER AIR BHD THE LOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW SNOW SHWRS THU NGT BUT WITH SFC TEMPS STILL MRGNL. THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF PATTERN WILL RELOAD DURING THIS PERIOD FOR A CONTINUATION OF COLDER THAN NORMAL MARCH WEATHER WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF CNTRL/ERN CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH COLD AND UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FROM FRI NGT INTO SAT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS FOR CNY AND NEPA. LOW PRESSURE PULLING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL EXTEND A WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
513 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CURRENT PATTERN WILL TAKE PLACE AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND BRINGS A SURGE OF POLAR AIR INTO THE ARKLAMISS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION THURSDAY.
A WARM FRONT WAS OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON EARLY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR DRYING WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN NEBR. RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S IN NRN NEBR. THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH THE FA AT 12Z. AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS SRN WY WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO SRN NEBR AND KS TODAY AND WILL TRIGGER AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS.
Storms that form near, or are able to tap into the backed surface winds along the warm front may have a bit greater threat of tornadoes. But decent ascent ahead of positively tilted trough and strong frontogenesis should allow for an increase in precipitation during the afternoon and overnight hours. Well below normal conditions expected at the start of the period as Canadian high pressure will dominate the weather pattern.
EXTENDED WILL GENERALLY BE MARKED BY COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH END OF WEEK. BEHIND RETREATING LOW PRESSURES SYSTEM TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS AREA AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTH BRINGING MUCH COOLER.
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THURSDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE IS PUSHING PRECIP INTO SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS EVENING.
346 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL INITIATE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TODAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY COLD FRONT. AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TODAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO BEGINS TO AMPLIFY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO OUR REGION ON THURSDAY.
654 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A COLD FRONT CONTAINING COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
A cold front will move into the Big Country early this evening, eventually moving through the Interstate 10 corridor during the early morning hours. Compressional heating ahead of the cold front will allow most locations to climb into the mid to upper 80s, with some locations approaching the 90 degree mark. Cooler temperatures can be expected overnight as the front moves through.
BUT WITH LACK OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE REPORTS UNDER THE LOW STRATUS BEHIND MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL BE DROPPING LAFAYETTE AND IOWA COUNTIES AT 12Z.
AS THE LOW DRAGS SOUTHWARD. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND TROUGH AXIS. SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE RETURN IN FULL FORCE ALL AREAS WITH DRIER AIR AND RIDGING SURFACE TO ALOFT.
1007 PM EST WED JAN 21 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE COLDEST AIR WITH THIS WAVE IS OVER THE CWA AND THIS LOW LEVEL COLD PUSH HAS GENERATED PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS. THE THREAT OF FOG IS MINIMAL TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS HAVE DRIED CONSIDERABLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS COLDER AIR AND DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE 10-15 DEG F OR MORE AT THIS TIME EVEN IN THE MOST FOG PRONE VALLEYS INCLUDING THE UINTA BASIN. THE LOW LEVEL COOLING AND MIXING HAS KEPT THE AIR QUALITY FROM DETERIORATING TODAY. RIDGE CONDITIONS THEN DOMINATE THE CWA HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
954 PM EST WED JAN 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BY TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT.
455 PM MST WED JAN 21 2015 AFTERNOON GOES WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWED A POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOW 20S TO MID 30S. UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BROADEN AND GRADUALLY EXPAND EAST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
656 PM EST WED JAN 21 2015 A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS EVENING.
317 PM PST WED JAN 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC WILL EXPAND INTO THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND.
650 PM EST WED JAN 21 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE A RIDGE BUILDS IN.
WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE TYPICALLY COOLER THAN SURROUNDING AREAS JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT. CURRENT H5 ANALYSIS CENTERS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE DEVELOPING OVER ARIZONA.
AND REPLACE THEM WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS OF -5 TO -10 C FOR THURSDAY. THIS WAA WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THURSDAY. AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH BRINGS A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THURSDAY. WITH WRN CONUS RIDGE FOLDING ACROSS THE STATE WITH THE AXIS STRETCHING FROM SW TO NE. AND LESS RIDGE INFLUENCE. AS IT WILL TAKE A BIT OF WORK TO GET ENOUGH MOISTURE BACK INTO THE NRN CWA UNDER THE PREVIOUS RIDGE/DRY CONDITIONS. WRN CONUS RIDGE BEGINS TO RE-FOLD OVR WY. WHILE AN UPSTREAM SW CRESTS THE RIDGE WHILE IN BC AND TAKES AIM ON THE NWRN CORNER OF THE FA.
706 PM EST WED JAN 21 2015 A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST.
COINCIDING WITH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH. AUTOMATED SURFACE REPORTS WERE INDICATING LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW UNDER THIS AXIS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF LIGHT FOG INTO THE MIX FOR EARLY THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATING A CHANGE OVER TO VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS LOW LEVEL PROFILES SHOULD DIP ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING. WITH MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION. 18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW EAST OF KMLI WITH A BOUNDARY/TROF EAST ACROSS ILLINOIS AND ANOTHER FROM THE LOW INTO NORTHERN IOWA. A COLD FRONT RAN FROM THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THEN ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA.
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS THAT EXTEND TO THE LA PLATA MOUNTAINS RIDGE LINE (OR WEST OF HIGHWAY 550). UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ARC SOUTHWARD INTO ERN ARIZONA AND SRN NEW MEXICO. DEFINITELY MUCH COOLER. A FEW SUB ZERO READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NW COLORADO AND SOME OF THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. THIS FORECAST AREA COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE WEST COAST RIDGE.
/ISSUED 211 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015/ UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH AZ WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. FORECAST POINT SOUNDINGS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OK SUGGEST LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES PROFILES WILL FALL TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO SNOW.
LATEST AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 900 PM DEPICTS THE POSITIVELY TILTED SHARPENING FULL LATITUDINAL TROUGH AXIS POSITIONED FROM ONTARIO SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. WITH BROAD NEAR 1015 MB RIDGING OVER MUCH OF PENINSULA FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. BUT WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO VEER MORE TO THE EAST WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.
212 PM PST WED JAN 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TODAY WHILE A STRATUS DECK AND COOLER TEMPERATURES PREVAIL OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. MUCH OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGH RES MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIZZLE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HIGH RES ARW.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHEAST OVER FLORIDA PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF. AS THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH A DISTINCT VORTICITY MAX ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS SECONDARY ENERGY DIGS DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AT THIS TIME.
HIGH CIRRUS CONTINUES TO THICKEN ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES COULD DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. KEEP IN MIND THOUGH THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND THE ABOVE FREEZING AIR WILL EXTEND UPWARD TO ABOUT 2000FT. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND ONLY GRASSY SURFACES ARE EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. AND THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS ARE A BIG HELP.
526 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2015 Quiet weather is expected to continue across the region for the next several days as a longwave trough sinks down the High Plains and eventually exits later this week. Cooler air associated with the trough has already begun filtering into the region; however, surface heating has not only allowed temperatures to climb into upper 40s to lower 50s, but has also resulted in enough low-level instability to produce a fairly widespread cu field across much of the CWA.
THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST WAS TO RAISE POPS THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WASHINGTON BASIN TO CHANCE CATEGORY AND BEEF UP THE FREEZING RAIN WORDING BEFORE THE EVENING NEWS. THE NEXT SHIFT CAN EVALUATE THE NEED FOR A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR IN ABOUT A 3-4 HR WINDOW EARLY IN THE MORNING FROM 4 OR 5 IN THE MORNING UNTIL 8 OR 9 IN THE MORNING. FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING WAZ029.
342 PM MST WED JAN 21 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM A PAYSON TO WINDOW ROCK LINE SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND. A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM AROUND PAYSON TO WINDOW ROCK THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS COLDER DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL AND HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE EVEN COOLER THAN TODAY.
IF NOT A BIT COOLER. OVERALL WOULD EXPECT MAIN TEMP DROP THIS 00Z-06Z THEN STEADY OR RISING TEMP REGIME (EVEN IF CLEAR) AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST AND WARMER TEMPS AT 850-925 MB MOVE IN. USING POWT TOOL WOULD INDICATE JUST ENOUGH COOLING AT THE SFC TO HAVE A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN.
908 PM EST WED JAN 21 2015 A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST.
THIS BAND CONTINUES TO HAVE THE HIGHEST REFLECTIVITIES.
BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS. STILL CONTINUE TO THINK THE BETTER CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN ARKANSAS.
HIGH CIRRUS TYPE CLOUD COVER IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ORIGINATING FROM THE POSITIVE TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES/DESERT SOUTHWEST. DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS, RADIATIONAL COOLING IS STILL TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. ONCE THE LOWER CLOUDS FROM LA ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT, RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD SUBSIDE.
942 PM EST WED JAN 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES REMAINED WELL ABOVE FREEZING WITH MID TO UPPER 40S WEST OF I-35/35W TO 50 TO 55 DEGREES TO THE EAST. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ACROSS THAT AREA. WARMER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. KEEP IN MIND THOUGH THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND THE ABOVE FREEZING AIR WILL EXTEND UPWARD TO ABOUT 2000FT.
637 PM EST WED JAN 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
TODAY IT IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE VALLEYS WHICH LIKELY ALLOWED JUST ENOUGH WIND TO MIX AWAY THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. THE RIDGE ALOFT HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT.
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
601 PM EST WED JAN 21 2015 A TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE A RIDGE BUILDS IN.
610 PM EST WED JAN 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BY TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT.
400 PM MST WED JAN 21 2015 WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE NORTHERN TROUGH HAS BEEN SLIDING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE STRONGER ONE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AHEAD OF THESE TWO TROUGHS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN POOLING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE SNOWFALL HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF THESE TROUGHS. TONIGHT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A 500MB TROUGH THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE NORTHERN TROUGH AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHWARD. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FAR SOUTH DUE TO SOME LINGERING LIFT AHEAD OF THE 500MB TROUGH. THURSDAY WILL BE CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS AS A 850MB RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY.
The low clouds in the north have broken up considerably since sunset, though a few batches of them will still skirt along and north of I-64 through midnight.
ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. A SURGE OF COOL DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE FOR CONSIDERABLY COOLER TEMPS TODAY.
956 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL MODIFY TODAY AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS ARE SHOWING A SITUATION WHERE LOW MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER THE EASTWARD MOVING RIDGE. EVEN THOUGH THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND IN TURN WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES TONIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. BUT A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE LIGHT. THE FIRST FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE EXITING TROUGH.
The wet weather is expected to decrease later today as high pressure begins shifting into the region.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER BY MID AFTERNOON.
ALL SAID EXPECT THE BAND BETWEEN KFAR AND KGFK TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME QUICK BURSTS OF 2-3 OR 2-4 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW/WC MN MAINLY BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 10 AND 2 CORRIDOR IN MN. QPF MAXIMA EXPECTED TO BE PLACED JUST NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER SNOW RATIOS.
446 AM MST TUE FEB 10 2015 UPPER FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY TODAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND THEN EXIT THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WILL BE COMMON. WITH JUST A SHORT PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. A TURN TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND. RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AT MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM FOR OUR CWA WILL BE TO BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND SE CA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
646 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2015 PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MOST OF TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WILL SAG SOUTH THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND THE BILLINGS AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING/NOON TIME FRAME WITH THE FRONT MAKING IT TO THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ROADS MAY BECOME ICY TOWARD EVENING AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY BUT UPPER RIDGING DOES BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE 30S FOR THE EAST AND CENTRAL AREAS BUT SLIGHTLY MILDER ACROSS THE FAR WEST WHERE READINGS MAY GET INTO THE 40S TO POSSIBLY 50 DEGREES AS A LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW RETURNS.
ESPECIALLY WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM FREEZING RAIN. ALOFT A DEEP TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE AREA TODAY AND HIGHS NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
VFR TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING E-SE 5-10 KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. A LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW THIS MORNING WILL VEER EAST AND SOUTHEAST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SLOWLY SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE EAST. KEPT ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS TEMPS CAN QUICKLY FALL ONCE FOG DEVELOPS.
A late wind shift from the northeast at HOB will be seen at other sites after this TAF period as a cold front moves through the area. /ISSUED 430 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2015/ WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered just south of Texas, bounded by a weak trough well off the Baja coast in the west, and a trough along the eastern seaboard in the east. W/the upper ridge overhead and return flow continuing, expect another day of unseasonably warm temperatures this afternoon. Unfortunately, this comes to an end Wednesday, as an upper trough moving into the Great Lakes region overnight pushes a backdoor cold front into West Texas/Southeast New Mexico Wednesday.
DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND MOISTENING LOW LEVELS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. LARGER AND MORE VIGOROUS TROUGH DRIVES INTO MN AND WI DURG THE AFTN. LINGERING 925/850 THERMAL RIDGE IN PLACE AT THE DAYS START WHICH WILL THEN TRANSLATE TO STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
Wrap around moisture from the low off the Carolinas continues to move into our area.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW MOIST GULF RETURN FLOW ALREADY INTO THE LOWER VALLEY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE AREA FOR MOST OF TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
Overnight lows holding generally in the low 30s across much of the area. Temperature advections also progged to be neutral in the lower levels, and southeast winds also continue. A mix to 925mb would bring high temperatures into the 50s with warmer temperatures out west under the warmer thermal ridge aloft. Return of northwest upper flow between deepening eastern ConUS upper trough and western ConUS ridge brings a series of cold fronts through the Central Plains through the late week periods and precipitation chances low at best.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND AREA WEB CAMERAS CONTINUE INDICATE PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND LOWER TEXAS COAST. RANGING FROM THE 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG AND WEST OF I-69E/HIGHWAYS 77.
AN UPPER TROUGH. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS WEDNESDAY AFTER ONE LAST DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS TODAY.
THIS LOW IS THE FIRST IN A PROGRESSION. OF TROUGHS MARCHING ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. AS EACH TROUGH MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE TROUGH RIDGE SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE SURGING AND LULLING WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE LOW DECK SHOULD SCATTER OUT AT CHA AT MID AFTERNOON AND SHORTLY THEREAFTER AT TYS. TRI COULD BE TRICKY WITH BOTH GFS/WRF/HRRR HINTING AT A POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BREAK UP OF THE LOW DECK.
430 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2015 WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered just south of Texas, bounded by a weak trough well off the Baja coast in the west, and a trough along the eastern seaboard in the east. W/the upper ridge overhead and return flow continuing, expect another day of unseasonably warm temperatures this afternoon. Unfortunately, this comes to an end Wednesday, as an upper trough moving into the Great Lakes region overnight pushes a backdoor cold front into West Texas/Southeast New Mexico Wednesday.
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. THE EFFECTS OF THIS LOW ARE MORE NOTICEABLE AT H8 WHERE MUCH STRONGER WINDS ARE NOTED IN WAA REGIME OVER NTX. THE HIGHER SPEEDS WILL BE OUT ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS BUT EVEN THEN. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL THUS BE IN STORE WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. BUT DOWNGLIDE AND DECREASING OMEGA FIELDS SHOULD QUICKLY ENSUE BY SOMETIME LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH.
Model forecast soundings do show this shallow moisture mixing out later this morning and early this afternoon which should lead to the dissipation of this low level cloud deck.
814 AM MST TUE FEB 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE. A TURN TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS SLOWLY CONTINUE TO RECEDE AS BROAD TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. EVEN WITH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SUBTLY COOLER AIR UPSTREAM NOTED ON AM SOUNDINGS.
Have adjusted the highs up a few degrees across our northern counties, given the low-level thermal ridging pattern across that area. A cold front will move south into our northern counties overnight, but the bulk of the cold air advection will hold off until during the day Wednesday. Cold front dropping through the area Wednesday afternoon will end the well above temperatures temporarily.