Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
418 PM EST Wed Dec 9 2020 A weak cold front to our northwest, currently over the Midwest, will stall and dissolve before reaching us. Another stronger cold front with much more upper level support will move southeast through the Midwest on Thursday and and Thursday night. Good radiating conditions combined with the warm air advection will be conducive for at least modest ridge/valley temperature differences each night.
800 PM MST Wed Dec 9 2020 Cold front was continuing to drop through the area this evening bringing cooler temperatures and northwest winds. Although a quasi-dry cold front is about to reach Great Falls, south-central and SE Montana will spend enough time with pre-frontal conditions to warm up to the high 50s to low 60s again by this afternoon.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): A large 500 mb closed Baja Cali low will steadily build a ridge axis over the RGV throughout the short term period. Also, low level WAA will be on the increase on Thurs and Thurs Night as the Baja Cali closed low will open up and move eastwards towards the South Central Plains States. This will increase the low level winds from the S-SE which will allow the temps and dewpoints to rebound. Will be going closer to a GFS/ECMWF blend for high temps tomorrow as the NAM still wants to keep the highs on Thurs in the upper 70s.
552 PM EST Wed Dec 9 2020 An upper level trough will exit the area tonight.
High pressure over the Gulf will push east across Florida tonight and Thursday, with light winds and slight seas continuing through the first half of the weekend.
326 PM CST Wed Dec 9 2020 High pressure shifts into the region overnight, decreasing winds, and continuing the clear skies. High pressure was shifting out of the eastern Plains and across Missouri this afternoon, as it tracks towards the Midwest. The well above normal temperature trend that arrived today will continue into Thursday, as the High pressure slides to the mid-Atlantic states. This will be with the arrival of the warm nose sector of the Low pressure system that will impact the local area this weekend. The upper level pattern adjusts toward the end of the week and into the weekend, as the upper Low pressure system arrive.
Continued warm advection has proven to keep temperature from falling below freezing near and north of I-80 this evening. Therefore, freezing drizzle mention has been taken out and replaced with drizzle, and T was adjusted up slightly.
945 PM EST Wed Dec 9 2020 High pressure will build across and offshore the middle Atlantic through Thursday night. A low pressure trough will approach the region late this week, moving across North Carolina this weekend. With clear skies and very lights winds, excellent radiational cooling is expected to occur overnight making temperatures near normal in the low/mid 30s across the region. An upper-level ridge across the Southwest will weaken as it makes its way across central NC on Thursday. At the surface, high pressure will build across VA throughout the day from the west, then transition off the coast by Thursday night.
Upper and surface ridging will produce mostly clear sky and calm winds with low dewpoint depressions. Otherwise, ridging surface and aloft will keep conditions VFR with light winds generally 5kts or less.
Thursday, northern stream wave helps usher a cold front south through the High Plains with the surface front arriving during the afternoon. Low level moisture before the arrival of the front and wave will be lacking, so will need a combination of virga and robust post-frontal cooling to saturate the lower levels. Progged 850mb temperatures have trended a bit warmer as well, so have pulled mentions of snow a bit farther northwest compared to the previous forecast.
500 PM EST Wed Dec 9 2020 Isolated freezing drizzle north and northeast of Pittsburgh will be followed by dry conditions and a warming trend through the end of the work week. Temperature will remain above freezing south of I-80 tonight, as warm advection has been persistent all day. Upslope along with a saturated boundary layer will provide the opportunity for patchy, light freezing drizzle through the night north of I-80.
622 PM EST Wed Dec 9 2020 High pressure will provide for dry conditions and a gradual warming trend through the end of the work week.
514 PM CST Wed Dec 9 2020 Conditions will continue to be dry through Thursday night across the cwa with the main changes in the weather being cooler highs on Thursday and breezy northwest winds. The models then show a cold front moving into our western cwa by midnight and moving east through the night. As these clouds move away on Thursday, mid and high level clouds from the western upper low pressure trough will move in and remain into Thursday night. Cooler highs in the upper 30s to the lower 40s are expected on Thursday which is still 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Lows will be in the upper teens to the lower 20s under mostly cloudy skies.
Dry cold front to pass through the region tomorrow, bringing gusty winds through the wind-prone areas of Central California by evening. GOES-17 visible satellite loop shows a stream of high clouds originating from the upper low situated to our south near the Baja Peninsula.
554 PM CST Wed Dec 9 2020 Mid-level ridging has helped us eclipse the 50-degree mark in most spots this afternoon, under mostly sunny skies and a warming westerly wind.
854 PM CST Wed Dec 9 2020 Evening upper air analysis showed an upper ridge moving across the central CONUS resulting in the dry weather that we are having. With clear skies and light winds tonight, going lows in the low-mid 30s still look on track. Britt Currently, an upper-level ridge is dictating the weather across most of the contiguous United States, including the Middle Mississippi Valley, as an upper-level low sits off the coast of Baja. Temperatures have climbed into the low to mid-60s for most locations - around 20 degrees warmer than climatological norms. For tomorrow, the aforementioned upper-level low will eject into the Southwest as upper-level ridging holds over the Middle Mississippi Valley.
Low-level southerlies will continue to moisten overnight as surface ridging departs farther into the Gulf. In the wake of upper ridging on Thursday, winds aloft will begin backing SW ahead of an upper trough ejecting across the Desert Southwest. Highs should fair similar to today with lows tomorrow night even warmer as dewpoints climb into the lower 60s.
230 PM MST Wed Dec 9 2020 Afternoon WV/IR imagery animation showed a closed low off southern CA/northern Baja, a low-amplitude ridge over the Plains, and trough amplifying over the Pacific Northwest. The short term forecast challenges will be timing of cold frontal passage, temperature trends and chances for accumulating snow late in the period. Cold front is progged to accelerate southeast across WY this evening and clear the NE Panhandle after midnight. The upper trough to the west moves through the CWA late Thursday, with low pressure developing over western CO. Northeasterly upslope flow and lift from the passing trough will produce areas of light snow Thursday night.
720 PM EST Wed Dec 9 2020 Temperatures are running very close to the forecast in the typically cooler spots so far this evening. Broader valleys and ridges are running warmer than forecast, so will adjust the hourly readings through the night, incorporating these trends. A weak cold front to our northwest, currently over the Midwest, will stall and dissolve before reaching us. Another stronger cold front with much more upper level support will move southeast through the Midwest on Thursday and Thursday night. Good radiating conditions combined with the warm air advection will be conducive for at least modest ridge/valley temperature differences each night.
Tonight and tomorrow: Upper ridging will continue to prevail across the region tonight and through the day tomorrow. At the surface, high pressure will gradually slide east into the southeast states by tomorrow evening.
146 PM PST Wed Dec 9 2020 Dry cold front to pass through the region tomorrow, bringing gusty winds through the wind-prone areas of Central California by evening. GOES-17 visible satellite loop shows a stream of high clouds originating from the upper low situated to our south near the Baja Peninsula.
628 PM EST Wed Dec 9 2020 An upper level trough will exit the area tonight.
Although a quasi-dry cold front is about to reach Great Falls, south-central and SE Montana will spend enough time with pre-frontal conditions to warm up to the high 50s to low 60s again by this afternoon.
650 PM EST Wed Dec 9 2020 High pressure will build across and offshore the middle Atlantic through Thursday night. A low pressure trough will approach the region late this week, moving across North Carolina this weekend. Water vapor satellite displayed an upper-level trough exiting the Mid-Atlantic, and an upper-level ridge across the Southwest. The trough will push away from the region this afternoon, with dry weather continuing across central NC. Skies will continue to gradually clear this evening, then temperatures will only dip into the low to mid 30s tonight as low level thicknesses increase to around 1340m. An upper-level ridge across the Southwest will weaken as it makes its way across central NC on Thursday. At the surface, high pressure will build across VA throughout the day from the west, then transition off the coast by Thursday night.
A cold front will move through the region tonight, bringing cooler temperatures to the entire region tomorrow.
216 PM MST Wed Dec 9 2020 The upper level ridge will shift east late tonight and Thursday, as the upper low off Baja (our next weather maker starting tomorrow night) begins to lift northeast. We will see a weak cool front dropping south across the high plains and into northeast Colorado late tonight. We may see just a couple flakes of snow over the higher mountains toward dark as moisture advects in. A closed low off the coast of Baja California will weaken into an open trough by the time it reaches the desert southwest on Thursday evening.
The rest of the Northern Rockies will experience a building ridge of high pressure.
The pressure gradient is increasing, as this system approaches from the west and flattens and weakens the ridge. The associated cold front will approach from the north tonight, with 5mb 3 hourly sfc pressure rises across Johnson County this evening. Less than an inch is expected elsewhere east of the Divide, mainly in the form of flurries under the low clouds.
High-level cloudiness has being observed today in association with a weak trough tracking through the PacNW.
913 PM EST Wed Dec 9 2020 Another quiet ridge dominated regime on tap tonight with only minor near term trend adjustments to temps/dewpts per recent obs.
Otherwise, expect lows in the low to mid 30s in most spots. Friday continues to look like the warmest day of the 7-day forecast period as the region sits well within the warm sector of a warm front that will be near the Great Lakes region. While clouds will gradually increase through the day Friday, modest southwesterly flow should result in high temperatures climbing into the low and mid 60s.
Overall, winds will be out of the west at 5-10 kts shifting to northerly behind passing cold front going past 16-17Z Thursday from north to south. Winds behind cold front will be at 5-15 kts. Thursday, northern stream wave helps usher a cold front south through the High Plains with the surface front arriving during the afternoon. Low level moisture before the arrival of the front and wave will be lacking, so will need a combination of virga and robust post-frontal cooling to saturate the lower levels. Progged 850mb temperatures have trended a bit warmer as well, so have pulled mentions of snow a bit farther northwest compared to the previous forecast.
With 925 hpa temperatures near 10 C, expect highs to climb into the lower 60s F across the forecast area. Stalling cold front is expected to push into the forecast area Thursday afternoon and remain across the forecast area until deepening trough lifts into the upper Midwest. Band of rain is expected to develop along 700 mb front Friday morning as initial short wave in upper trough lifts to the northeast. Based of the frontal position, this will favor precipitation across central and eastern portions of Missouri and have concentrated the highest pops there.
Low level atmospheric ridging influences along with building west to east quasi upper level ridging influences thru 11/06Z expected.
An upper level low currently over the northern Baja, will move east-northeast across the Southern Plains tonight and Friday. Expecting some showers to develop with this incoming trough during the night.
Temps tonight should be just slightly warmer than previous nights, ranging in the mid 30s to upper 30s. High temps remain steady, staying in the low to upper 60s through the short term period.
908 PM CST Wed Dec 9 2020 Temperatures tonight have trended 1 to 3 degrees cooler than model guidance, due to increased radiational cooling as winds dissipate below 5 mph in most of the ArkLaTex. /issued 535 PM CST Wed Dec 9 2020/ For the 10/00Z TAF update, high pressure will continue to slowly drift east over our airspace, maintaining VFR cigs/vis through the period for all terminals except potentially KMLU.
Prior discussion below: Tonight and tomorrow: Upper ridging will continue to prevail across the region tonight and through the day tomorrow. At the surface, high pressure will gradually slide east into the southeast states by tomorrow evening.
A cold front will work across the FA through the early morning hours. Cooler highs can be expected in the wake of the front with widespread 50s prevailing for southwest Kansas. Meanwhile, an upper level trof will approach the region from the west and southwest. This trof will start to influence area area by Thursday night and into early Friday morning. The cooler temperatures will prevail for the weekend as a cool high pressure center prevails across the Central Plains.
Well above normal temperatures and sunny skies are occuring today and will again on Thursday, but may be even a degree or two warmer. Overall looking for rain Thursday night into Friday night with cooler conditions afterwards.
Otherwise, forecast is on track as more record warmth is expected tomorrow before a cold front arrives on Friday.
1225 AM EST Thu Dec 10 2020 High pressure will build across and offshore the middle Atlantic through Thursday night. A low pressure trough will approach the region late this week, moving across North Carolina this weekend. With clear skies and very lights winds, excellent radiational cooling is expected to occur overnight making temperatures near normal in the low/mid 30s across the region. An upper-level ridge across the Southwest will weaken as it makes its way across central NC on Thursday. At the surface, high pressure will build across VA throughout the day from the west, then transition off the coast by Thursday night.
1240 AM EST Thu Dec 10 2020 High pressure will prevail through late week.
Temperature tonight and Thursday will be highly influenced by cold air advection and are a bit warmer than the guidance blend. Dry air intruding from the north may cause weaknesses in the seeder-feeder process and the forecast carries a few pockets of freezing drizzle.
When it's all said and done though, while both days will be warm, today could end up being the warmer of the two.
High pressure will bring dry conditions and a warming trend through the end of the work week. A weak trough passing to the southwest has kept some cloud cover and warmer air in place across much of PA. Thus, temps have been hovering just above or just below freezing. To the southwest where the trough has passed, skies are clearing allowing for some colder temps in place and thus, some fog development. Temps appear to stay a bit cooler in the north due to cloud cover hanging on a bit longer.
Lows Thursday night will be a bit warmer than tonight, and range from the lower 40s inland to around 50 at the coast.
Recent observations from across the area reflect another rapid decline of temperatures post-sunset this evening, with a majority of sites already reporting values in the mid 40s, the exceptions being urban locations near Orlando and those with a greater marine influence, which remain in the lower 50s.
Sincavage The upper trough across the Desert Southwest will be near the edge of the FA by early Friday. Models continue to differ on precip chances with the upper trough for Friday, but given the system appears overall to be dry we will lean towards lower precip chances than what model guidance suggests, though that is not to suggest precip chances are nill. The trough axis will dissect the FA by Friday afternoon with a cold front pushing southward bringing in much cooler temps.
1105 PM EST Wed Dec 9 2020 An upper level ridge over the plains will shift to the east coast by late this week.
233 AM EST Thu Dec 10 2020 An upper level ridge over the plains will shift to the east coast by late this week.
Continued warm advection has proven to keep temperature from falling below freezing near and north of I-80 this evening. Therefore, freezing drizzle mention has been taken out and replaced with drizzle, and T was adjusted up slightly. A large scale eastern CONUS ridge with surface s and swly flow will keep weather quiet, and allow for well above average high temperature in the mid 50s by Friday, with sunshine returning.
1237 AM EST Thu Dec 10 2020 Dry with moderating temperatures through Friday as upper level ridging builds.
1109 PM CST Wed Dec 9 2020 For the 10/06Z TAF update, a weak upper-level ridge will continue to slowly drift eastward across our airspace, maintaining VFR cigs/vis until 11/03Z as low clouds enter our SW terminals. /issued 908 PM CST Wed Dec 9 2020/ Temperatures tonight have trended 1 to 3 degrees cooler than model guidance, due to increased radiational cooling as winds dissipate below 5 mph in most of the ArkLaTex.
Broad ridging over the eastern half of the country will keep our weather quiet through Friday morning before a progressive and strengthening low pressure system moves into the area for the start of the weekend, bringing rainfall to the area. Broad ridging across the eastern half of the country will linger through the end of the work week maintaining pleasant weather for mid December Friday with increasing clouds and highs in the 50s with the potential for a few spots to push 60 degrees. Energy aloft will dive south through the Plains and help to carve out a strengthening upper low that will track into the Great Lakes over the weekend.
Upper and surface ridging will produce mostly clear sky and calm winds with low dewpoint depressions. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 38 64 48 61 / 0 0 0 20 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 37 62 44 60 / 0 0 0 10 50 Oak Ridge, TN 59 37 61 44 59 / 0 0 0 10 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 32 61 38 61 / 0 0 0 10 30.
1231 AM EST Thu Dec 10 2020 High pressure will provide for dry conditions and a gradual warming trend through the end of the work week.
111 AM EST Thu Dec 10 2020 High pressure along with cool and dry air will dominate the region through Friday.
1117 PM EST Wed Dec 9 2020 An upper level ridge over the plains will shift to the east coast by late this week.
237 AM EST Thu Dec 10 2020 High pressure overhead today moves off the coast by Friday.
222 AM EST Thu Dec 10 2020 Dry with moderating temperatures through Friday as upper level ridging builds.
A dry cold front will cross the region through Thursday morning.
/issued 228 PM CST Wed Dec 9 2020/ An upper level ridge is currently situated over Texas today. A cutoff low currently off the coast of Baja California will quickly move eastward this afternoon before transitioning into an open short wave trough over the AZ/NM border early Thursday. This trough will result in increasing cloud cover and slightly cooler temperatures across the western portion of our area Thursday morning. This trough, accompanied by some much needed rain, will be making its way across our region on Thursday. As the trough progresses eastward over Texas, rain will move through the entire area. As this trough moves up and off into the Central Plains on Friday afternoon, an upper level jet will dig into West Texas. Temperatures on Friday will be slightly cooler than the previous days, with highs mostly in the 60s.
155 AM EST Thu Dec 10 2020 High pressure will build across and offshore the middle Atlantic through tonight. A low pressure trough will approach the region late this week, moving across North Carolina this weekend. High pressure will continue to dominate the forecast across the Mid- Atlantic states. The slow warming trend will continue, with highs and lows about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday. Cloud cover will definitely increase area-wide Friday night in advance of an approaching cold front, but precipitation will remain well to the west of the region. While highs will be another 5 degrees warmer, the increase in cloud cover overnight will help keep lows in the 40s everywhere.
1234 AM EST Thu Dec 10 2020 High pressure pushes overhead late tonight into Thursday, then off the coast by Friday.
844 PM MST Wed Dec 9 2020 Cold front was continuing to drop through the area this evening bringing cooler temperatures and northwest winds. Although a quasi-dry cold front is about to reach Great Falls, south-central and SE Montana will spend enough time with pre-frontal conditions to warm up to the high 50s to low 60s again by this afternoon.
Today is a transition day as the weak ridge aloft continues to flatten and move east and the upper level low over northern Baja California opens and phases into the base of a northern stream trough across the Southwest U. By late this evening and into the overnight hours mid level forcing approaching in the base of the trough should generate scattered elevated showers, beginning near the Rio Grande and moving east overnight through the western half of the CWA.
1029 PM EST Wed Dec 9 2020 Currently - High pressure taking up the Gulf of Mexico is generating gentle northerly breezes across the Keys. Currently, temperatures range from the upper 50s in the Upper Keys to the mid 60s in the Lower. Overnight lows will range widely from the lower 50s to the lower 60s with stable dew points. High pressure in the Gulf of Mexico will maintain light to gentle northerly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
435 AM CST Thu Dec 10 2020 Another day of record or near record breaking warmth is expected today, with afternoon temperatures warming into the low to mid 70s.
A weak disturbance aloft moving east through the region today, will basically go unseen as broad mid/upper level ridging persists over the region. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, will result in increasing southerly flow across the forecast area today. Highs this afternoon, under mostly sunny skies, will reside in the lower and middle 70s. Lows will be slightly warmer as a result, as they range the upper 30s to around 50.
246 AM MST Thu Dec 10 2020 Water vapor satellite imagery showing closed low about to enter southwest Arizona. To the north, a cold front associated with a trough over the Northern Rockies is tracking south across Wyoming and will push through Colorado this morning. This will bring cooler temperatures today with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. High clouds in advance of the low over the Desert Southwest will help keep temperatures cool today as well. The closed low over the Desert Southwest weakens into an open trough as it continue to move northeastward. the light snow will decrease over the plains Friday afternoon and evening as subsidence and weak high pressure move in behind the system.
310 AM CST Thu Dec 10 2020 Upper level zonal flow will remain in place over the region today, then will see a trough approach tonight and become centered over the central part of the country on Friday. Will see some fairly gusty winds behind the front today before high pressure settles in over the area tonight and Friday. Much cooler air, compared to what we have seen the last several days, will move in behind the exiting front as well. Highs on Friday will be in the lower to mid 30s.