Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
301 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA GRADUALLY CLEARING THE SKIES FROM EAST TO WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH RISING TEMPERATURES MOST OF THE WEEK. GUSTY ELY WINDS WILL CONT WITH THE GRADIENT FROM THE HIGH AND DEEP LOW OVER THE SERN STATES CONTS. CLSD LOW OVER THE SERN STATES SLOWLY MEANDERS EWRD THRU THE SHRT TERM WHILE GNRL HIRES NORTH OF THE LOW REMAINS OVER THE NE AND THE GREAT LAKES.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OUT WEST. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN WARMER. HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOW 80S. A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE WEST DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS BY MIDWEEK WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.
WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA AND A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER.
431 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 MODELS AGREE ON UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN GA AND NORTHWEST FL WILL SINK SOUTHEAST ACROSS FL TODAY AND OFF SHORE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE BAND OF HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BECOME ORIENTED MORE EAST TO WEST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS TODAY AS THE LOW PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST.
649 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA, OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
413 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TO BUILD IN GRADUALLY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
With the extent of clearing, a fairly moist boundary layer and light winds, patchy fog or freezing fog is expected to develop across the northern third of our area tonight, and possibly as far south as Coleman and San Angelo by early Sunday morning. Overnight lows are expected to range from the upper 20s across much of the Big Country and Concho Valley, to the lower 30s farther south and east. Highs are expected to be in the lower to mid 50s. 19 (Sunday night through next Saturday) Currently, there is a compact closed low currently moving southeast through Kansas in northwest flow. Upper level ridging is in place across New Mexico and Arizona, with a large upper level trough in place across the northeastern U.
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WESTWARD EXTENT OF CLOUDS ADVANCING SOUTH BEHIND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. BUT SHOULD HELP PUSH DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ALONG WITH SOME CLOUDS. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW AS THE COOLER AIR PUSHES THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH THE CWA. TEMPS TOMORROW SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY BUT STILL IN THE LOW 20S WITH A WESTERLY FETCH TO THE WIND CONTINUING AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION LATE IN THE DAY.
These precipitation chances will continue into the evening hours but will come to an end by midnight as the trough axis cross the region and lift shifts to the east. Temperatures will be at or just below freezing, so the fog may need to be adjusted to freezing fog by later shifts. Farther south, temperatures are expected to remain in the low/mid 30s with linger cloud cover.
RIDGE/TROF PATTERN FROM W TO E ACROSS THE CONUS. WITH NEXT MAJOR UPSTREAM TROF ALIGNED DOWN THE W CST. UPR RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVR WY.
WITH ENERGY STILL OFF TO THE WEST IN MEXICO EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP AS THE LOWEST LEVELS CONTINUE TO SATURATE. OVERALL WIND FIELDS WILL BE LIGHT IN THE LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET. THE MOST PERSISTENT RAIN HAS STAYED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDOR. DRIER AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS IS HELPING TO EVAPORATE PRECIPITATION BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
228 PM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED DEEP INTO THE HEART OF TEXAS WITH A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW THE RESULT OVER THE LOCAL AREA. LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE FLORIDA COAST SHOULD JUST REINFORCE DRY LOW LEVEL FLOW WHILE INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO RESULT IN ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE LOCAL AREA.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.
221 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016 CLOUDS IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AS DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BRING A MODEST WIND SHIFT, BUT ONLY MARGINALLY COOLER AIR.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST CONUS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER NORTHEAST TX INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION WITH WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME OF THIS COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA KNOCKING OUR HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S SAT. YET ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SUN NIGHT WHICH WILL FURTHER REINFORCE THE COLD AIR ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND POINTS EAST.
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH MAXES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ARE FORECAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN THE WINTER'S CHILLIEST AIR TO DATE ON SUNDAY.
BUILDING SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES ALONG WITH DEVELOPING DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN VFR/SKC CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES THRU 03/12Z.
252 PM MST SAT JAN 2 2016 BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. LIGHT WINDS WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SLIGHTLY COOLER INTO SUNDAY BUT STILL REMAINING AROUND TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MAIN FOCUS IS ON A MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COME THE CHANCE FOR FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA BY SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH.
1215 PM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM WEST TX TO KY WAS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WITH CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES DUE TO A VERY DRY AIRMASS (PWAT'S ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH) AND WESTERLY WINDS. ECMWF/GFS/NAM BRING A POCKET OF WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE CWA WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF +4 TO 5C. DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE A DEEPENING TROUGH DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES OUT OF EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL USHER IN A COLD FRONT INTO THE DVN CWA WITH WINDS VEERING NORTHWEST.
THE REX BLOCK PATTERN THAT KEPT A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BROKEN DOWN AS THE DRY UPPER LOW THAT WAS SITUATED OVER NORCAL HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD AND IS NOW OVER THE PAC NW. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR UNDERCUTTING MID MOISTURE TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL CA WHICH KEPT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK AND INHIBITED FOG FROM FORMING OVERNIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION REMAINS SADDLED BETWEEN SYSTEMS TO THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH WELL TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THE CUTOFF LOW TO THE WEST LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A DEEPER TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST SUPPLANTS IT. AS THIS OCCURS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL DRIVE WARMER AIR ACROSS THE REGION WITH 7H TEMPS RISING BY ABOUT 6 DEG C TODAY.
EXPECT MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES DOWN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TEMPS PRIOR TO DAWN RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S. FOR SUNDAY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL COME THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS WHICH WILL HELP TO CLEAR THE CLOUDS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE IMPAIRED BY THE HIGH CLOUDS.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE FIRST WED NIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST POPS STILL EXPECTED OVER SE OK.
/issued 328 AM CST SAT JAN 2 2016/ A weak ridge will build over the area as a cut off low along the OR coast will lift NW as upper trough moves on the CA coast.
312 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016 Compact upper low continues to drop southeastward over western Kansas, the main impacts of which have been to boost highs a bit with better mixing, and to drop dewpoints as you go west and mix into the drier air. High pressure at the surface continues to drop southward from the high Northern Plains into the Central Plains tonight and into Sunday. As the front comes in, think lows across the far southeastern counties will hold in the lower 20s while the northern counties drop into the teens. Cold advection continues tomorrow but in combination with mostly clear skies still think highs should make it into the lower/middle 30s tomorrow afternoon.
224 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016 CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S AREAWIDE. AN UPPER-LOW TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO REBUILD BEHIND IT. A FAIRLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN TO PERSIST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWS NEAR FREEZING.
PLEASANT WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW AS LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING IN COOLER AIR.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PATCHY FREEZING FOG AND SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS STRATUS LAYER. A LOW STATUS DECK IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND SURROUNDING VALLEYS INCLUDING THE DESCHUTES AREA NORTHWARD THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND THE YAKIMA VALLEY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE TODAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE STRATUS IN PLACE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE DRIFTING NORTH TO NORTHWEST TOWARD THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COAST. IF ENOUGH WARM AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND PUSHES TEMPERATURES ALOFT ABOVE FREEZING THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING RAIN.
High soil moistures and past model performance suggest MOS is a little warm and diurnal spreads too wide, so we've stayed toward the cooler end of things, and narrowed the spreads.
1153 AM MST SAT JAN 2 2016 17Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ALONG PERIPHERY OF LARGER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO TO MONTANA. DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE LATEST DATA SUGGEST TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER OR SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY. ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE COOLER AIR WILL BACK IN FROM THE EAST AND AN INCREASING CIRRUS DECK WILL LIMIT FULL SURFACE HEATING.
1227 PM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES A BLOCKING PATTERN TO THE WEST RESULTING IN QUIET NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WORKS INTO THE AREA BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. AS AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WHILE AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATES IN SOUTHERN OREGON. AS THE THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ELONGATES OUT TO THE EAST. A PORTION OF ITS ENERGY UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE WITH A SEPARATE CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST ALBERTA/SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN.
A WEAK TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. WITH THE TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENT LOWS WARMER ESPECIALLY IN EXPOSED AREAS. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH IOWA SUNDAY. BRINGING A SHOT OF COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION TO START THE WEEK. WILL FAVOR COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WITH GENERALLY SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
353 PM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 A COLD FRONT, WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE WINTER SEASON, WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. BUILDING SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES ALONG WITH DEVELOPING DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN VFR/SKC CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES THRU 03/12Z.
244 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016 TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE PERSISTENT SNOW PACK AND UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A 500HPA TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS A 250HPA JET STREAK MOVES SOUTH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THINKING THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL HOLD EAST OF THE AREA FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING THE PATTERN. ALTHOUGH RIDGING IS IN CONTROL.
THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND SUBSEQUENT NORTHWEST FLOW AT ALL LEVELS WILL BRING A QUICK END TO RAIN AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY.
EXPECT A WARM FRONT TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION AS ONE UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A SECONDARY LOW PUSHES TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. AN UPPER LOW CENTERED ALONG THE NRN CA-NV BORDER TRACKS NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON TODAY. MTNS WILL SEE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER GIVEN PASSAGE OF THE COLD-CORE UPPER LOW. THE UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SW ON SUNDAY BRINGING IN A WARMER AIRMASS. THUS SLOWING THE INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR FROM ALOFT.
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS A RESULT ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN AREAS.
1108 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO SUNDAY.
A weak cold front will move through the CWA late today with westerly winds at the sfc out ahead of it. leaned toward warmer guidance for highs today particularly for southern portions of CWA.
A compact upper low spinning across western KS will drop southeast across the region overnight. Reinforcing high pressure behind the system will bring slightly cooler air for the few days however.
WITH NRN STREAM RIDGING AND SRN STREAM TROFFING NR THE COAST. NWLY UPR FLOW INTO THE FCST AREA DOWNSTREAM FM STG NRN STREAM UPR RIDGE WL KEEP TEMPS NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A CUTOFF LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN WITH IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING COLD AIR TRAPPED IN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME. WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND INTO THE ROCKIES. WARMING ALOFT AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO AT AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS FOR TODAY. 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY 20S AT THE PEAKS. WITH THE COLDEST READINGS STILL EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
/ISSUED 350 AM CST SAT JAN 2 2016/ CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP EAST AND SOUTH OUT OF NORTHEASTERN/EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING AND ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS BY 00Z SUNDAY.
AT MANY LOCATIONS TEMPS ARE RUNNING 3-6F WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. ALOFT: SPLIT FLOW REMAINS OVER N AMERICA WITH A REX-BLOCK CONFIG OVER WRN N AMERICA AND A TROF/CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE E. AS A RIDGE BUILDS JUST TO THE W AND THE TROF SHARPENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE: A TROF EXTENDED FROM LOW PRES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR SW ACROSS WI-MN-SD. THE TAIL END OF THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. MULTI-MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST A FEW PATCHES OF CIRROSTRATUS COULD SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROF THAT WILL APPROACH THE W COAST. A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOW TEMPEARTURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW 30S.
LOW TEMPEARTURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW 30S. THEREAFTER SHORT WAVE RIDGING/LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/80-100M/12 HR 5H RISES SHOULD KEEP SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF CLOUD DECK HELD TO ABOUT 30 CORRIDOR BEFORE/STALLING THEN LIFTING/BREAKING UP IN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FASHION AS LAST VESTIGES OF 8H COLD POOL SAUNTERS INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. THE SECOND IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS WAS DISTANT UPSTREAM EARLY THIS MORNING AND WAS STILL OVER THE ARCTIC REGIONS OF NORTHERN CANADA.
A SECOND ROUND OF CLOUD LINE GENESIS HAS SPAWNED ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE LOWER KEYS. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER TEXAS.
153 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016 NOT A BAD JANUARY DAY WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA IN THE LOW/MID 40S WITH LIGHT WINDS. OTHERWISE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME SECTIONS SHOW VERY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TONIGHT.
228 PM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
ON THE FRIDGE OF THE CLOUDS. BUT GIVEN THE SNOW PACK STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CAPROCK WE HAVE KEPT HIGHS DOWN IN THE LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER MORE NORTHERLY AS SURFACE RIDGING NOSES DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS AND WEAK DRY AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THIS REGIME MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL FOG THREAT.
/ISSUED / LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM MONTANA TO TEXAS.
In the interim, an upper level low pressure system takes shape, and moves across the Lower Mississippi River valley Sunday.
A weak cold front will enter the area tonight and cross the region in the next 24 hours.
A combination of freezing fog, low stratus, and intermittent flurries will dominate valley weather during this time. The low visibility and low ceilings will impact ground and air travel. Subzero overnight temperatures will be present in the higher elevation valleys through at least Saturday night as well. The only interruption to the current pattern will be a weak storm system moving northward across the Columbia River Basin on Sunday, increasing high clouds over Idaho and Clearwater Counties and slightly warming the low elevations.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARED OUT OVER MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE SLIDES OVER. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TEENS FILTERED INTO THE AREA ON WESTERLY WINDS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA TODAY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS PRODUCE PATCHY LIGHT PCPN THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE REST OF THE RUNS REMAIN DRY AS THE TROUGH PASSES OVER.
RAINY AND COLDER WEATHER SPREADING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND AT 2 PM THE COLD FRONT FORT MYERS TO OKEECHOBEE WAS EITHER STALLED OR SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH. COLD FRONT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
Dry conditions will continue across western Kansas today as short range models indicate upper level ridging slowly building across the Central and Southern Rockies through the remainder of the weekend. Along with much drier air present in the lower/mid levels, precip will remain absent across the region through Saturday night. Lows will once again drop into the teens(F) across west central Kansas to the lower/mid 20s(F) in south central Kansas.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Cold front over the Upper Midwest and northeast Plains will dive south tonight, reaching the I-70 corridor by around 12Z. The latest runs of the RAP, HRRR and NARRE-TL are now showing about the same, while the GFS and GFS LAMP guidance are much drier in the low levels.
1254 PM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. LINGERING AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS TODAY NEAR FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. FRIES TONIGHT AND MUCH OF SUNDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BEFORE A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS OVER THE REGION WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
255 PM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 THE FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS LOW WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND BEACHES ON SUNDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE RAIN WINDING DOWN IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES IN THE EVENING AND ENDING COMPLETELY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS INDIANA REMAINS CAUGHT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TOWARD INDIANA ON SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE AS THE WORK WEEK BEGINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS MARGINAL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE WAS FOUND TO THE NORTH ACROSS CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. SOME HINTS TOWARD THE ARRIVAL OF LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PRESENT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND 925MB RH POINT TOWARD SATURATION. GFS AND NAM BOTH SUGGEST A COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS INDIANA ON SUNDAY AS LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY.
THE CLOUDS COULD CAUSE WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS. AND PERHAPS COOLER HIGHS ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE LOWER DEW POINTS AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED.
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE PERIOD.
HAVE ALSO INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT AS SOME LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ARE STARTING TO NUDGE THROUGH THE UPPER 20S PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN US AND CANADIAN AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TODAY AND WINDS WILL HAVE MORE OF A NORTHWEST COMPONENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS THAN YESTERDAY ARE LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PARK OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
The low clouds may linger or even deepen across the Bluegrass region Sunday night as the low-level fetch remains off the Great Lakes.
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE OFF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS JUST FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE THAT THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL BAND EXPECTED TO ROTATE INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY DOES NOT PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL IDAHO. HAVE BACKED OFF THE FORECAST LEAVING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ON THE HIGHER PEAKS NEAR SUN VALLEY AND STANLEY.
A FAVORABLE NORTHWEST MIXING WIND SHOULD HELP REALIZE SOME OF THE WARMER AIR ALOFT.
1140 AM CST SAT JAN 2 2016 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY UP THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA. SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL THEN BUILD IN OVER THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
253 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016 Forecast area remains cloud-free this afternoon, and winds have already switched back to the southwest behind the earlier trough passage. Next trough/front is seen on afternoon surface map from near Duluth southwest into north central Kansas. Temperatures expected to fall into the 20-25 degree range, with some locally cooler conditions over the remaining snow cover. The surace trof should push out of our area on Sunday with Canadian high pressure building southeast into our area.
HAVE KEPT THE NORTH A BIT WARMER BASED ON ARRIVAL OF CLOUD COVER. NO FLURRIES ADDED AT THIS TIME WITH THE MOIST LAYER TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THE PREFERRED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THOUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING OUR AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING.
Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today with highs in the middle 40s, but drop back into the upper 30s to lower 40s on Sunday behind the trough.
Made some minor tweaks to the high temperatures in a few areas to factor in the recent trends, but forecast overall is in good shape.