Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1212 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017 Cold front extends roughly along I-70 back into southwest Missouri. Also made some minor downward adjustments to the high temperatures today, as clouds remain extensive. High temperatures will be considerably cooler than they have been in recent days. Upper troughing will dig into the Great Lakes on Friday, giving the persistent front a solid push southward out of the region. The trough will shift eastward over the weekend, allowing upper ridging to build into the Midwest.
Moisture with this feature will remain shallow with upper ridging lingering. However, moisture will increase later Friday ahead of an approaching upper trough and its associated cold front.
Widespread thunderstorm development continues across eastern and northern Oklahoma early this afternoon and will continue into at least early to mid evening as the upper low in northwest Oklahoma approaches and eventually moves overhead. This area will also be beneath the track of the upper low and the coldest temperatures aloft.
A few rain showers and an embedded thunderstorm or two may linger across central and south central Kansas this evening as a closed upper low shifts eastward across extreme northern Oklahoma early in the period. Otherwise, drier condtions will take hold later tonight and continue through late Friday afternoon as short range models indicate the closed low turning and dipping southeast into the Ark-La-Tex Region, giving way to a weakening northerly flow aloft while drier air in the lower levels filters southward into the high plains. Clearing skies should allow highs to climb into the lower to mid 70s(F) by mid to late afternoon. As an upper ridge axis crosses into the Plains late week and early this weekend dry conditions along with some warmer temperatures will begin to spread east across Colorado into far western Kansas.
In any event, winds will be light, and with mostly clear skies went on the low side of guidance, and will see lows drop to around 40 in lower lying areas of far southeast SD and northwestern IA, to the mid 40s back through the James River Valley and south central SD. Upper level ridging will slowly build into the area on Friday as a ridge of high pressure at the surface shifts east. With the ridge of high pressure in place on Friday morning cool temperatures will be in place to start the day, but southerly flow will help bring warmer air into the region.
153 PM MDT Thu May 11 2017 The approaching trough and cold front will begin to affect the region this afternoon with passing thunderstorms. The cold front will begin to move through north-central Idaho and northwest Montana tonight.
255 PM PDT Thu May 11 2017 Cold front moving through this evening.
Upper low has pulled east of the area and aside from some isolated showers across the plains.
227 PM MDT Thu May 11 2017 Latest analysis shows a high amplitude upper ridge building in from the west.
Moderate southeast flow this afternoon will slacken this evening ahead of an approaching cold front.
325 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017 Dry and warmer conditions expected through the weekend. Upper low was currently spinning east through the Oklahoma Panhandle region. A sheared vorticity channel extending to the northeast of this low was triggering isolated showers as far northeast as southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, but those were fading as the afternoon progressed. Upper ridging will then build into the central CONUS later Friday and through the weekend, bringing mainly clear skies and warmer temperatures as heights rise.
Later tonight a pre-frontal trough will move across SE Texas. The high resolution models are showing isolated to scattered showers along and behind this trough. The cold front will then push through during the 12Z to 16Z time frame. The northern most counties are lacking this cloud cover, which will allow temperatures to be slightly warmer than the rest of the CWA due to the additional sunshine. The showers that we have seen so far today, are mostly developing below this cap, and are struggling to strengthen due to this pocket of drier/warmer air in this 875-825mb layer.
Weak high pressure builds in for Friday, which should provide slightly warmer temperatures and partly sunny skies.
150 PM MDT Thu May 11 2017 Upper low near the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle region this morning will move east today, with the precipitation gradually ending. Upper ridge axis will move over the area on Friday, resulting in sunny skies and dry conditions.
330 PM MDT Thu May 11 2017 Weather concerns will be relatively low over the next couple of days as high pressure builds overhead from the west.
A second round with greater tstm coverage may come in the afternoon as the surface cold front moves into the area from the west ahead of the main upper trough axis. Cold Front sags farther south and southeast overnight taking the significant showers and a few storms south and east.
A cold front will move south across the terminals this evening, with north winds around 10 knots following the frontal passage. A cold front will move south across the terminals this evening, with north winds around 10 knots following the frontal passage. For highs today, went with the warmer GFS MOS temperatures due to downslope west winds and sunny skies. It will be cooler tonight as cold front with north winds of 5 to 15 mph moves through.
317 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017 High pressure will build overhead tonight with clear skies and light winds. take hold Friday with low pressure developing on the Nrn High plains. An upper level low near the Pacific coast will slowly migrate into the Western U.
331 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017 An upper level low is currently moving through the southern towards the Lower Mississippi Valley. In response to this, the upper ridge of high pressure that has been spread across the Central Gulf Coast for the last several days is shifting east and suppressing south. Lowering heights in the column from the upper trough moving in will cool mid and upper levels. Winds in the lower levels still look weak at around 20-30 knots, but mid and upper level winds will be strong enough to result in sufficient overall shear to support a few severe thunderstorms. Instability will be limited in the lower levels and could be even lower at points further above if cloud cover ahead of convection hinders destabilization.
/issued 1010 AM EDT Thu May 11 2017/ Latest water vapor imagery shows a tightly wound low pressure system over the Oklahoma with a strong ridge of upper level high pressure dominating southern Florida. Maximum temperatures are on track to reach the mid to upper 80s along the coasts and up to the low to mid 90s inland. /issued 413 AM EDT Thu May 11 2017/ Broad and deep high pressure remains in place across the region, keeping generally warm and dry conditions over South Florida through the rest of the week. With prevailing light to moderate winds today, expect max temps to reach the lower to mid 90s over portions of the interior peninsula, along with max temps over the metro areas near 90.
Dew points are into the 60s and with highs reaching into the low 80s, CAPEs in excess of 2000 J/Kg are fairly widespread.
144 PM EDT Thu May 11 2017 High pressure will prevail through tonight as a stationary front remains to the north.
A change to a wetter pattern comes this weekend as two troughs of low pressure move into the region.
1148 AM MDT Thu May 11 2017 Upper low near the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle region this morning will move east today, with the precipitation gradually ending. Upper ridge axis will move over the area on Friday, resulting in sunny skies and dry conditions.
306 PM EDT Thu May 11 2017 A deep ridge complex is aligned from Central America to the southern Appalachians.
327 PM MDT Thu May 11 2017 Clouds are diminishing rapidly as drier air is advected in advance of the upper ridge moving into northwestern Colorado. Clearing skies overnight after some precipitation over the eastern plains may allow for some fog to form, mainly over the ridge and east of the Palmer Divide. Upper ridge will pass overhead by Friday afternoon bringing much warmer temperatures. A lee side low will continue to deepen up in Montana with the trough extending down into Colorado. The upper-level ridge building over central Colorado will provide more stable conditions and warmer temperatures through the weekend. Friday night should be dominated by clear skies across the CWA with lows ranging from 30s in the high country to lower 50s in the plains.
315 PM EDT Thu May 11 2017 A weak area of low pressure over the Upper Ohio River Valley will drift south of the region tonight causing the area of steady light rain to dwindle into just patchy light drizzle for tonight and early Friday.
308 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017 Thunderstorms have developed in advance of a dryline as lift from an upper low spreads overhead. The brunt of this activity will push east of the forecast area around sunset as the upper trough axis shifts towards the TX/LA border. However, a cold front will be surging southeast through the region and may provide focus for additional development during the late evening and overnight hours. The front should sweep through the entire CWA by sunrise Friday, bringing cooler and drier air into North and Central Texas. The weather pattern will remain fairly quiet over the weekend as upper ridging dominates the Southern Plains, with sunny, warm days and clear, cool nights expected.
329 PM EDT Thu May 11 2017 A narrow area of high pressure will hold on for one more day keeping much of the area dry into Friday.
Most of the high resolution guidance corroborates this with activity waning as it moves into southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana, but redeveloping again across Acadiana by mid morning into the afternoon. The front moves through late Friday ushering in slightly cooler and drier air. Upper level ridging and high pressure at the surface will make for a very pleasant weekend.
Given that the lower boundary layer is fairly dry and most things will be mid level, will keep just some very low POPs for tonight with not much accumulation.
Upper low just east of OK panhandle. Some capping likely also occurring so changes may come quickly durg mid aftn with sfc temps into the lower to mid 80s. /issued 1045 AM CDT Thu May 11 2017/ Morning shwrs continue across E TX/SE OK ahead of an approaching upper level low pressure system. Later, the developing cold front will merge with the dryline, and the storms will move through the remainder of our region during the overnight hours. Severe threat is the result of an upper-trough across the Four Corners region ejecting east into the Ozarks by this evening. Upper-trough will aid in destabilizing the ArkLaTex during a time of peak heating. Temperatures on Friday to climb into the mid to upper 70s as Canadian high pressure shifts south and east.
High pressure is keeping skies clear with the exception of an area of persistent mid level clouds along and west of the Missouri River this morning. High pressure moving out of Canada down the Red River Valley will nose into our CWA today. As the high continues south and a lee low forms across Montana, winds will become more southerly and breezy.
339 PM EDT Thu May 11 2017 High pressure will prevail tonight as a stationary front remains to the north.
337 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017 Tonight and Friday: Mid afternoon satellite imagery showed the circulation around a closed low over western Oklahoma. The closed low will slide east through Friday becoming centered over our Delta region by Friday evening. /22/ Friday Night through Thursday: As the upper trough pushes east of the forecast area late Friday night, the chance for showers and thunderstorms will clear from west to east.
621 PM EDT Thu May 11 2017 High pressure will prevail tonight as a stationary front remains to the north.
Ridging will begin to be shunted eastward and overtopped by progressing mid level low across the southern Plains.
1038 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 A weak cold front will drop across the region tonight. High pressure will then build back into the region Monday, with this system influencing our weather through the end of the week. Behind a backdoor cold front clouds are increasing across portions of CNY and the Genesee Valley. It will become just cold enough aloft to create lake induced instability, though a dry boundary layer and dry conditions through the lower atmosphere will limit any snow to just a few flurries south of Lake Ontario later tonight. On Monday high pressure across western Ontario province will ridge toward our region.
The area is currently under an upper level ridge with a disturbance moving northeastward across the western Dakotas. Light snow accumulations are expected during the day on Monday as a lot of melting is expected with temps near freezing and the fact that it's falling during the day.
Strong and gusty west winds behind a Pacific cold front will continue this evening, then become northwest to north later tonight and remain strong and gusty through Monday as a second cold front moves across the region from the north. The ride will however reach the highest peak temp-wise so far this spring by late week, with many areas finally cracking through for some 80 plus degree weather. The Gulf of Mexico looks to open back up for business beginning late week and moisture return will begin to increase across the southern Plains as a wrn upr trough begins to set up.
Water vapor imagery showed a strong short wave trough digging east across the Four Corners region while another lead short wave was crossing western Oklahoma. The OK system was pulling moisture north into the Plains while the Four Corners trough will not only help steer the OK energy toward southeast Nebraska, but will be providing ample forcing for precipitation over Kansas and into Nebraska/Iowa over the next 24 hours or so. Later tonight, the northeastward surge of moisture is likely to wane and stall as the main upper low crosses the Plains near the KS/OK border.
Monday should see temperatures near to just above freezing. We'll still be under an active pattern at 500mb, with a weak trough over central SD and NE.
A series of anticyclones passing through the Hudson Bay region will dominate the weather across the forecast area, driving cool dry Canadian air into the region. Precipitation chances will be minimal until at least the end of the work week and the upcoming weekend, when a southern stream cyclone heads east from the Plains. For the remainder of the afternoon and this evening, a backdoor cold front is expected to drop southwestward across the area bringing an end to the mild weather. Blustery conditions are expected as well as the pressure gradient tightens between the anticyclone building southeast across Canada and a cyclone tracking through the Ohio Valley.
1019 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018 A still and cloudy day across the region beneath high pressure. The lack of sunshine or mechanical mixing kept high temperatures about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday.
1046 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 Currently - A weak ridge axis extends across the Bahamas, South Florida and the Keys. Temperatures are in the lower 70s with dew points near 70. Short Term Update - The ridge will retreat southeast and eastwards tonight. Light and variable winds will slowly strengthen out of the south tonight as a nearby ridge retreats southeastwards.
12z models show the position of the upper level low even further south compared to yesterday, so expect even less impacts across Converse/Niobrara counties as well as the southern Nebraska panhandle as the storm redevelops over the southern plains. Based on recent trends from the high res models, Some places across the panhandle might not even get an inch of snow by Monday morning. It will be cooler than average Monday afternoon with highs only in the 30's to maybe low 40's across the lower valleys.
Cooler than normal temperatures will continue Monday, but conditions will warm quickly back into the 80s by the middle of the week. Within a larger western Conus trough, a notable PV anomaly has lifted into western Colorado this afternoon while the attendant frontal boundary has swept well into New Mexico. More substantial ridging aloft will build over the SW Conus through the middle of the week ahead of deep cold core low diving south through the east Pacific basin.
Colder air continues to be drawn into the system with currently temperatures from the lower to mid 30s north central and the mid to upper 30s south.
Satellite pictures are showing an oblong circulation right over the four corners at the bottom of the upper trough to our west. Convection is breaking out over the high mountains and foothills and Palmer Ridge at this time. The 12Z models all show an upper closed low over the northeastern corner of the Texas Panhandle at 06Z and over southeastern Kansas at 12Z. The low level winds are progged to be north-northeasterly into mid evening, then more north-northwesterly for the rest of tonight. There is some in the high mountains all day Monday. By Monday night, the upper level trough will push eastward bringing NW flow over the state.
Ahead of the low winds will increase out of the south across the mid state bringing dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s, especially across the southeast. If this pans out it would limit discrete development ahead of the cold front. As the low swings across southern Kentucky, it will drag a front through the mid- state.
Showers will increase as warm front moves closer to southeast Tennessee toward morning but amounts will be light.
In its wake, high pressure aloft will return for the first half of the week and bring a warming trend to the region, before another storm system approaches for the latter half of the week. The upper trough that brought the latest round of weather to the area will continue to exit east overnight.
1247 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Northeast flow behind a backdoor cold front will persist for the remainder of the forecast period. A low pressure center at 950-850mb is currently pushing southward from Lake Huron and into sections of southwestern Ontario this afternoon. The low is weak and appears to be a surface reflection of lower tropospheric warm advection in the presence of a greater baroclinic zone. As daytime heating wanes and the mixed layer begins to shrink, models are advertising a shallow cold front, or density current dynamics that will rapidly push southward through the forecast area into northern Ohio. Lows are expected in the lower to middle 20s. Surface ridging will steadily expand southward through the Great Lakes tonight due to increase in confluent flow aloft and the deep cold air advection.
A broad upper trough extending from the Northern Rockies all the way to Arizona. The strongest piece of energy is moving through the bottom of the trof in the southern Rockies and will not impact us. Precip is expected to shut down after the trof axis passes on Monday morning.
Even if we don't see afternoon discrete development, there will still be a concern with any storms that form later in the afternoon/early evening closer to the cold front.
628 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018 A still and cloudy day across the region beneath high pressure. The lack of sunshine or mechanical mixing kept high temperatures about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday.
Cold front still on track for the 3 am to 8 am window to sweep through and usher in the dry air.
Upper air analysis showed a ridge axis the Central Gulf Coast to Dakotas and short wave trough over northern New Mexico and disturbance on the front side of the wave over Arkansas and northern Louisiana.
Aloft - A robust short wave over the 4-Corners region tracks east flattening a ridge across the Gulf region which contains a weak embedded impulse that scoots over south GA/north FL. Surface - A boundary in the Deep South lifts north as a warm front while a cold front sweeps across TX toward the Gulf of Mexico. The axis of Atlantic high pressure extending into the Gulf of Mexico slips south. Weak high pressure slides away tonight as a cold front pushes into the Gulf on Mon. High pressure builds in behind the front with a significant increase in winds and seas.
At 2 PM CDT, fair skies with light winds are noted over the region with temperatures rebounding into the lower 50s east to the mid to upper 40s west.
The main story of the near term is a compact upper low moving across southern Kansas bringing chances for precipitation overnight and through Monday night. Showers are expected to begin this evening ahead of the low with the heaviest precipitation seen early tomorrow morning as the maximum ascent moves across eastern Kansas as the low passes to the south. Low temperatures tonight are expected to be in the low 40s, and not moving up much during the day Monday as the rainy weather continues.
Large scale ascent ahead of the main upper low and the core of the low itself it also continue to bring lightning strikes and most likely heavy precipitation bursts late this afternoon from our southern CWA to the Front Range. A good warming trend will take place for the mid week period as the ridge aloft settles over the High Plains with troughs along each side of NOAM.
850 PM PDT Sun Mar 18 2018 Fair and warmer weather is expected on Monday.
Low clouds over northern Iowa into southern Minnesota have been more persistent than expected, keeping temperatures a bit cooler in these areas.
1123 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018 A low level stratus deck has inhibited solar insulation and in turn kept the area much cooler than the guidance was recommending. As this low deepens it will help advect moisture from the Gulf of Mexico up into our area with a warm front and occluded boundary providing the lift necessary to make Monday a rather rainy day. Frontogenesis over SE Kansas overnight will enhance the warm frontal boundary and eventually allow wrap around moisture and overrunning to push into our area Monday morning. The low will quickly move W to E across Missouri with precipitation ending by late Monday afternoon into the evening.
The 12Z models are in good agreement in pushing the upper low eastward across our region, but there is some discrepancy in the character and path of the surface system. trough and southwestern U. This has some bearing, since the western trough dampens and replaces the current ridge over the WFO PAH forecast area in less than 48 hours. The degree of energy and moisture translated and lifted along the western side of the trough, as it moves east of the area, and the impact of the next approaching ridge will determine whether there is a minor precipitation event mid-week.
Quiet weather will continue tonight, as the area remains under the influence of ridging aloft. Areas along the immediate Lake Michigan shore, especially in the urban center of Chicago, may stay just above freezing through morning. Persistent northeast to east low level winds will also keep things a bit cooler than average however, especially close to the Lake Michigan shore. Low pressure passes well south of the forecast area Monday and Monday night, with precipitation limited to downstate IL/IN. The gradient between this low and high pressure to our north over Ontario will provide somewhat blustery northeast winds however, with winds gusting 25-30 mph at times.
Clouds will continue to remain across the area on Monday as upper level low moves across the Central Plains. With extensive cloud cover like today, have kept forecast highs towards the cooler side of guidance.
914 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 High pressure will maintain dry weather and seasonal temperature into Monday.
Upper low has now moved into the TX panhandle and storms have been developing and strengthening over the last few hours along the cold front in the TX panhandle. High precipitation chances continue after midnight as upper low/surface track will be favorable for widespread showers and thunderstorms overnight.