Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
446 AM EST Sat Dec 31 2016 High pressure anchored across the southeast will shift offshore through Saturday ahead of the next system. An amplified trough crossing the Great Lakes will pivot through New England with weak mid level impulses traversing the southeast this weekend. Thus as precipitation makes it to the surface, falling into dry air, this will allow the wet bulb temps to approach the freezing mark in the lowest levels within the higher elevations. However, can't rule it out entirely for those across the higher terrain.
Light Freeze Event on Track with freezing temps being reported from Ocala/Palatka northward through JAX to Lake City and across all of inland SE GA and will be in place through 9am. As cloud cover increases through sunrise expect temps to remain steady near freezing or might even increase slightly. High Pressure moves offshore and high clouds will thicken and increase through the day with mostly cloudy skies in most locations by the afternoon hours although will be filtered sunshine through most of the day. The cloud cover will hold Min Temps generally in the 50s, about 20 to 25 degrees warmer than this morning. As ridging aloft builds well offshore. Models show warm front pushing north across forecast area Sunday/Sunday night with moisture overriding boundary.
Upper low has moved over southern California this evening.
Latest HRRR model indicating some very light pcpn could reach into our Plateau counties this morning which, if it can overcome the dry low level air, may start off as a rain/snow mix in the highest elevations. As rain spreads eastward toward the higher elevations of the Appalachians, pcpn there may start off very briefly as snow before turning to all rain by tonight. Although model sounding indicate some snow potential in the higher elevations, it will be a race between the moisture and WAA in 850 mb jet.
343 AM CST Sat Dec 31 2016 The cold front is presently swinging through the CWA, and as expected northwesterly winds have increased behind the front. Otherwise, satellite showing broken stratus to our north and this will drop southward across our area through the morning before breaking up in the afternoon as the lower level flow turns southwesterly. With the frontal passage it will be a cooler day, though in consideration of trends of late stayed on the upper side of guidance with highs mid 20s through east central SD and southwestern MN, to mid 30s along the mid and lower MO River Valley. The one exception will be over the Buffalo Ridge area where there could be some wind enhancement in a slightly tightening gradient in the southwesterly low level flow.
The upper level low that was situated off the southern coast of California yesterday has opened and will continue to dampen east through the Southwest U. Another, more potent, upper level low off the northern California coast this morning will bring a chance of storms, possibly severe, to our region Sunday night. Warmer on this last day of 2016 with highs into the upper 60s to lower 70s. For New Years Day highs will be in the low to mid 70s with a few isolated showers may be possible across central and eastern areas.
Main uncertainty is how long into this evening/tonight stratus lingers behind cold front passage, which will impact low temperature forecast. Cold front trailing from vigorous clipper low moving across Lake Michigan early this morning will sweep across the area from northwest to southeast this morning and shifting winds to gusty west-northwest. With surface ridging moving over the area tonight, as mentioned earlier, question is does the stratus clear tonight.
A second and stronger upper trough will quickly follow late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night, resulting in mainly chance to likely pops in showers and thunderstorms areawide.
Models suggest that a mid/upper level ridge building from the northeast Pacific into Alaska will result in pattern amplification across the CONUS with a trough over the wrn CONUS expanding eastward through the week.
412 AM EST Sat Dec 31 2016 Weak high pressure will provide fair weather this morning.
255 AM CST Sat Dec 31 2016 Today, early this morning a positive tilt upper level trough extended from Lake Superior, southwest across western NE. Overnight lows may occur between midnight and 3 AM in the lower to mid 20s. By Sunday morning, a strong mid-level trough will be located over the northwest US, while another, more southern, trough is seen located near southern Arizona. Ahead of this lifting southern trough, a weak wave passes over the area Sunday which could bring a chance for light sprinkles in the afternoon.
940 PM MST Fri Dec 30 2016 18z water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated broad ridging ongoing across the plains with area of mountain induced cirrus forming across northeast Colorado. Approaching short trough was just crossing the Canadian border with corresponding sfc front in the Dakotas. Cold front will sweep across the area and while winds above the surface will increase with its passage. Temps will be 20-25 degrees cooler tomorrow than today. An extended cold outbreak looks to be on tap for this period as a deep trough digs into the western CONUS early in the week then slowly moves across the remainder of the CONUS.
139 AM EST Sat Dec 31 2016 A cold front over Iowa will move to northwest Ohio by this evening. Dry weather is expected Sunday as high pressure moves across the area.
These breezy conditions are expected to continue through the evening into early Saturday morning before weakening and veering ahead of an approaching cold front. The next upper trough headed our way was along the southern Oregon Coast this afternoon and will quickly steer southeast down the California coast tonight and Saturday, across northern Mexico Sunday, then opening but still more backed flow aloft than Saturday's wave while crossing our area Sunday evening. Airmass will be warmer so looks like liquid phase for this wave should be a pretty good bet.
341 AM CST Sat Dec 31 2016 Relatively quiet in the short term period today with weak high pressure over the forecast area and a northwest upper level flow. A cold front will drop south across southern Canada today and may bring a few light snow showers to the northern tier counties. Temperatures are expected to warm into the 20s across the forecast area, ahead of the approaching cold front. Tonight, the cold front drops south through the forecast area with temperatures generally in the single digits. Winds turn more northerly with the passage of the cold front but they should be light.
936 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 The remnant low pressure of Bonnie will continue to slowly move northeastward away from the region through Wednesday night. A weak cold front could then approach the region late in the week and become stationary this weekend. Otherwise, the remnant low that was once TS Bonnie just offshore near the SC/NC border will continue to move northeast away from the area while a lingering trough stretches southward off the SC coast and then west into Georgia.
Will have to watch the overnight temps closely in the central zones for some localized freezing temps. Doesn't look quite as good as a couple days ago with some limited moisture hanging around in the lower levels and n-ne wind staying up longer than optimal. Will still lower temps back down to just above freezing in the low lying areas around Casper and Riverton to Lander. Upper 60s to upper 70s across the lower elevations with 45 to 60 in the high country depending on elevations. Wednesday Night through Tuesday A ridge of the desert southwest continues to bring mostly dry conditions to the area for the early portion of the forecast period.
1148 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016 Heights will be on the rise through the week as a ridge builds to the west. Temperatures will also be on the rise as the ridge takes hold and drier conditions are also expected for much of the week, especially from the plains states westward. A trough will eventually settle in over the Great Lakes region, taking the more active and wet weather with it. High temperatures on Wednesday will rise into the mid 70s which is a few degrees warmer than Tuesday's highs in the low 70s. Heights will be on the rise as the upper trough lifts further northeast Wednesday Night and is replaced by the first significant ridge of the summer season building in from the west as the week moves along.
20Z analysis shows low pressure stacked over northeastern north dakota with a tight sfc pressure gradient on the west side of the low. With the cooler air in place and the decreasing winds and clouds, temperatures will be colder than average tonight. Some areas of the Black Hills may see temperatures fall below the freezing mark overnight. Weak ridging will develop to the west of the forecast area on Wednesday as the low pressure system departs to the east. At the surface, high pressure will settle into the Northern Plains.
A few showers and thunderstorms have developed in the higher terrain in VA, NC and TN this afternoon.
749 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 A ridge of high pressure will dominate the region through midweek under a mainly clear sky.
551 PM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016 Upper level trough continues to move east today across the northern high plains and into southern Manitoba and Ontario.
1054 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 High pressure will ridge south into the commonwealth tonight and Wednesday.
There is also some dissipating cumulus over the ridges. The upper level ridge that brought the dry and warm weather is now breaking to the east of the area and a short wave ejected from an upstream trough will move onshore to the north later tonight.
Showers will gradually end tonight, leaving a cooler, but mostly dry day on Wednesday, when highs will mainly be in the 60s F. However, it appears that is mainly being driven by enhanced surface vorticity tied to the stacked low pressure system over ND, as 0-3-km SBCAPE values are less than 100 J/kg per that mesoscale analysis.
The upper low continues to spin over the state of North Dakota this evening. The backside of the low is spreading showers. Otherwise, a ridge of high pressure sits over the golden state of California with an upper trough moving east approaching the Pacific Northwest. A larger upper low is sitting over the Aleutian islands. Cyclonic flow around the low will allow skies from clearing out. a weak ridge of high pressure will be in control providing mainly clear skies, light winds and temperatures closer to normal.
High pressure is building aloft and and drier air is moving in from the west. Winds aloft will be strengthening by Wednesday well ahead of a low pressure system moving over the West Coast.
8-10 degs warmer Wednesday as upper ridge builds in the Great Basin.
633 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016 Heights will be on the rise through the week as a ridge builds to the west. Temperatures will also be on the rise as the ridge takes hold and drier conditions are also expected for much of the week, especially from the plains states westward. A trough will eventually settle in over the Great Lakes region, taking the more active and wet weather with it. High temperatures on Wednesday will rise into the mid 70s which is a few degrees warmer than Tuesday's highs in the low 70s. Heights will be on the rise as the upper trough lifts further northeast Wednesday Night and is replaced by the first significant ridge of the summer season building in from the west as the week moves along.
The highest confidence though remains over E TX. Rain chances to steadily increase through the end of the workweek as a longwave trough across the desert southwest begins to shift east.
There is a weak 850 trough over SW TX. A weak short wave trough was also noted at 700 mb between Del Rio and Corpus Christi.
Strong high pressure along the west coast will shift east across the Great Basin through midweek. A fairly strong upper level ridge will continue to build into the West.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect the area through the day on Wednesday with the highest chances in parts of southern Oklahoma and western north Texas. Meanwhile, a surface cold front/boundary has become better defined this afternoon.
933 PM PDT TUE MAY 31 2016 Very warm weather expected this week as high pressure strengthens. The high pressure ridge shifts a little to the southeast on Wednesday. This will flatten the ridge a little over the northern areas and may bring some slight synoptic cooling along with some high clouds over the northern areas during the day.
722 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 A cold front to our north will drop south across the area this evening. Meanwhile low pressure in North Dakota will move into Ontario forcing the front back across the area as a warm front Wednesday evening.
A few shra/tsra are again xpcted across the general area during the day Wed, as a weak cold front approaches from the w.
Upper low evident on satellite over North Dakota with west- northwesterly flow over the CWA on the periphery of this low.
904 PM MST TUE MAY 31 2016 A weak low pressure system will move slowly through southeast Arizona tonight. The low pressure system will move into New Mexico on Wednesday, with a building high pressure system over the region the remainder of the week and weekend.
Upper level ridge is expected to be a little weaker on Wednesday.
Temperatures are in the lower 80s. On this date in Keys Weather History, 1934, the low temperature recorded in Key West was 70 degrees.
1022 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016 Upper low continues to track eastward across the Dakotas this afternoon, and will drag a secondary cold front through the forecast area later this evening. Wednesday: With the upper low continuing its slow track eastward and into the Great Lakes region during the day, anticipating a rapid strato-cu layer developing by mid-day. Again, would not rule out a sprinkle along the Buffalo Ridge, but most of the area will remain dry. Have continued to trend towards cooler guidance values especially across the north where winds will be light throughout the night.
A cold front will increase rain chances for the latter half of the week. This cirrus deck will limit radiational cooling this evening, which likely will enable overnight minima to remain slightly warmer and closer to MOS guidance. Dry and warm weather can be expected Wednesday under slowly-eroding high pressure.
914 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 Upper level ridge rebuilds for mid week.
1020 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 Dry weather is expected tonight as high pressure travels slowly east. Showers and thunderstorms developing along a slow moving cold front will start to impact the area on Wednesday.
MVFR ceilings are expected with the low clouds. /issued 345 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/ (Tonight and Wednesday) An upper level low is centered across the northern Mexican state of Sonora/southern Arizona late this afternoon. On Wednesday, the aforementioned upper level low will continue to slowly approach West Central Texas resulting in large scale lift. In addition, a cold front is forecast to slowly move through the area, which may serve as a focus for additional showers and thunderstorms.
1001 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 A ridge of high pressure will dominate the region through midweek under a mainly clear sky.
Weak sfc/low lvl ridge over central/south FL will generate a light to gentle SErly breeze over the lcl Atlc waters overnight.
Shower activity just off to the west of the area has dissipated early this afternoon which looks to be a result of ridging still over the region. As the upper trough approaches from the southwest, chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase during the afternoon and evening on Wednesday.
941 PM PDT TUE MAY 31 2016 High temperatures will rise throughout the week as high pressure builds aloft.
659 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016 Water vapor imagery placed an upper low pressure system in North Dakota with the upper trough extending south into Nebraska. At the surface, the associated cold frontal boundary was oriented to the southeast of our CWA in far southeast Nebraska into eastern KS. The upper trough axis will shift east of the Missouri River early Wednesday, with weak surface ridging settling in during the day. At the onset of the extended Wednesday night, flow across the conus will be split with an upper low pressure system translating into Ontario/upper Great Lakes region and another upper low cutoff from the flow in Texas, with ridging in the desert southwest.
High pressure will bring mostly sunny skies and warming temperatures through the weekend. Warm temperatures have increased the melting of the high-elevation snow-pack, leading to a substantial rise in some rivers and creeks.
538 PM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016 Upper low evident on satellite over North Dakota with west- northwesterly flow over the CWA on the periphery of this low.
604 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016 Upper low continues to track eastward across the Dakotas this afternoon, and will drag a secondary cold front through the forecast area later this evening. Wednesday: With the upper low continuing its slow track eastward and into the Great Lakes region during the day, anticipating a rapid strato-cu layer developing by mid-day. Again, would not rule out a sprinkle along the Buffalo Ridge, but most of the area will remain dry. Have continued to trend towards cooler guidance values especially across the north where winds will be light throughout the night.
Upper low over the Dakotas is wrapping precipitation and wind into our eastern zones this afternoon. However, ridging will be offset by a weak short wave traveling the mean W/NW flow aloft. primarily over the high country. Otherwise, look for less wind and warmer temperatures tomorrow.
857 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 A quiet evening across the eastern Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachian region with high pressure at the surface still promoting a mostly clear sky. Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 90 68 88 / 10 20 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 87 67 86 / 10 20 20 50 Oak Ridge, TN 64 88 67 86 / 10 20 20 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 85 64 84 / 10 20 30 60.
746 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 Upper level ridge rebuilds for mid week.
A cold front will track across Central Indiana tonight with a few thunderstorms possible.
Otherwise we are looking at a warm and humid evening under the upper level ridging and return flow at the surface. Upper ridging across the Tennessee Valley will edge northeast into the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic Friday into the weekend, keeping a hot and humid airmass in place across eastern Kentucky. Deep layer subsidence, stemming from the above mentioned upper ridge moving overhead, and a lack of forcing for ascent should lead to a dry Friday.
752 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 A cold front will cause scattered showers and thunderstorms Tonight.
Deep moisture is wrapping around the south and southwest edge of a ridge of high pressure centered over the Southeast States/Mid Atlantic.
Temperatures in between the convective activity have reached the low and mid 90s for most folks.
An upper level ridge parked over the southeast U. Temperatures climbing into the low 90s, dew points in the 70s and afternoon/early evening showers and thunderstorms each day -- all with the same concerns as described above.
712 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016 High pressure will be the dominant weather feature through the upcoming weekend.
717 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 High pressure continues to build into Northern Michigan this afternoon. Thick layer of mid cloud is gradually thinning with the departure of the cold front. Tonight will be noticeably cooler with ongoing CAA behind the cold front. Afternoon highs will range form the lower 70s in Eastern Upper and far NW Lower Michigan to around 80 degrees near Saginaw Bay.
1259 AM EDT Fri Aug 26 2016 Deep moisture along with a weak wave of low pressure aloft will produce variable clouds along with the chance of a passing shower, mainly south tonight into Friday morning.
914 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016 High pressure remains off the coast through tonight. A cold front will cross the region early Friday. High pressure will return for the weekend. A light southerly flow will allow for noticeably warmer and more humid conditions overnight compared to recent nights. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms have developed ahead of a cold front over Pennsylvania this evening. Current feeling is that the activity will weaken as it approaches our area due to the fact that it will be outrunning the cold front that will not get here until after sunrise. Not only is the timing out of synch with favored diurnal trends, but west/northwest winds will promote subsidence, and at all levels above the surface ridging will reinforce that subsidence.
549 PM MDT THU AUG 25 2016 An unsettled weather pattern remains in place this afternoon as mid- level troughing dominates the flow aloft, along with several smaller scale waves rounding the base of the trough.
Satellite/RAP analysis shows small upper level low sliding west/southwest across the northern peninsula.
Building high pressure will ensure dry, but warm and humid weather for Friday. Upper ridge of high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic will continue to build through the weekend.
651 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016 At 20z the synoptic setup was highlighted by a broad upper level trough over much of the western two-thirds of the conus, and a strong but low amplitude ridge of high pressure centered over the southeast US. At the surface a slow moving frontal boundary extended from the Great Lakes region through the Ozarks and into Oklahoma/Texas, with a weak low pressure center analyzed in northwest Missouri. Increasing DPVA aloft will slowly aid in the development of a lee side low over eastern Colorado, which will turn our winds southeasterly as the low level mass fields begin to adjust. In addition, both the GFS and the NAM advertise upper level clouds streaming into the area overnight, which may keep temperatures a few degrees warmer than previously thought.
/ISSUED 320 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016/ North and Central Texas will remain between a developing trough across the western states and ridge of high pressure across the Southeastern United States. upper trough will translate east on Friday which will nudge the upper ridge toward the southeast coast.
Synoptic cold front will sag a bit further southward before becoming stationary across south- central Illinois late tonight into Friday.
Tomorrow, as the last of the energy from the trough departs the area, there will be some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be a little a little warmer, generally in the the mid 70s.
952 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 A cold front will slowly cross the region late tonight and Friday.
Mid afternoon temperatures in central Minnesota were held in the low to mid 60s which is more typical of mid September, than late August.
Stacked and broad surface to upper ridging over the SE U. Gradient packing between this high and the low pressure area in the N Carib to keep deep and moderate easterly steering flow over the area as well.
1252 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 High pressure will remain southeast of the region overnight. A cold front will cross the region Friday afternoon.
As a short wave trough descends from the Canadian Rockies, some isolated to scattered precipitation is expected. BMickelson Previous short term discussion: An upper trough over the region will continue to influence the weather conditions through tonight and Friday with increasing clouds and eventually scattered showers moving in from the west.
The culprit for this pattern is a persistent upper level ridge centered over the S Appalachians with abundant low level moisture. Thus thinking any heat advisory headlines will be avoided with heat index values topping out in the mid to upper 90s across the Lowlands. with upper ridging across the eastern U. with best chances across the higher terrain counties. Stubborn high pressure continues though begins to erode as a tropical system slides westward towards the US mainland, however, quite a bit of model uncertainty so track of system is not well defined. Maintained schc to chance PoPs for the dirty ridge as it flattens.