Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
347 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020 The upper-level closed low that has brought extremely pleasant weather conditions to the forecast area will slowly meander northward through the short term, allowing more classic summertime- like conditions to slowly begin filtering in through the rest of the week as the Rex block pattern over the eastern CONUS begins to break down. Tomorrow, the closed low will lift from NC into the Ohio River valley, further releasing its hold over the forecast area. Highs will rise to the low-to mid 80s with increased chances for diurnal showers and thunderstorms.
The upper low over the eastern US will migrate northeast and we will be in between systems this weekend as ridging builds in over the weekend.
1243 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020 1243 AM CDT A rinse and repeat forecast is in store for today and Thursday as the area remains firmly under a ridge wedged between deep troughing centered over the northern Rockies and a stalled mid-level low over the Mid-Atlantic states. A few pieces of guidance show spits of QPF in the southeast CWA Thursday afternoon under weaker capping on the northwest periphery of the low to the east. Corresponding dew points in the low to mid 60s with this guidance appear overdone, and with no forcing in the area, will maintain a dry forecast.
Much warmer and drier conditions are forecast for Wednesday and Thursday as onshore flow weakens considerably under building high pressure.
316 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020 Early morning satellite imagery continues to depict the blocking pattern across the US, with little progress in either upper low over Idaho or the Carolinas. Highs climb back into the 90s for much of the area today with warmer mid 90s central.
300 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020 A couple of upper level lows are poised across the country early this morning. To our east, one low is situated across the Carolinas with high pressure remaining over the Great Lakes and extending southwestward into Chihuahua. It could be possible that a few quarters could be generated given the dry subcloud layer but coverage of the higher end threats should remain limited. Additionally, a weak short wave in the flow aloft will be approaching the area with the ridge axis just east of the FA.
343 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020 Who is excited for another warm and windy day? Thankfully it will be our last for the foreseeable future, as the low pressure system that has been sitting off to our west finally passes through the area by tomorrow. As we head into the late afternoon, the cold front associated with the aforementioned low begins to enter our far western counties along the MO River in central SD. By midday, the cold front will be draped across the area roughly along a line from Marshall, MN to Sioux Falls, SD to Sioux City, IA. As the cold front exits the area by late afternoon, expect temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 50s with with gusts down to 10 mph.
307 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020 Main focus of the short term will continue to be on the closed low currently centered over the Carolinas. The upper low is expected to meander a bit to the NW throughout the day, moving over the Kentucky/West Virginia border by Thursday morning. Upper low will lift northward, from the KY/VA border on Thu morning into eastern Ohio on Thu night.
118 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020 Prevailing high pressure will bring tranquil and very warm conditions through the remainder of the week.
The upper low the brought scattered showers and a few storms over the region today will continue to drift east overnight. A few lingering showers possible through tomorrow across the eastern mountains on the back side of the upper low.
126 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020 High pressure will remain in place across the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley tonight, while an area of upper level low pressure affects portions of the Atlantic coast.
1152 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020 High pressure will provide mostly clear skies through Thursday, with gradually warming temperatures.
The upper ridge will remain over the region into Thu with lgt sly winds.
1224 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020 137 PM CDT Upper level pattern remains very similar to yesterday, with a cut- off upper low spinning near the mid-Atlantic, an upper ridge over the Great Lakes and mid-Mississippi Valley, and an upstream upper trough over the western CONUS. Daily lake breezes will continue to keep things 10-15 degrees cooler along the Lake Michigan shore, while inland temps warm into the mid-upper 80's. Warmer daytime temps, and slightly higher dew points will also make for slightly milder overnight temps tonight and Wednesday night as well.
By late tomorrow afternoon, a surface cold front is anticipated to stretch from far southwestern Nebraska up through the sandhills and into central South Dakota. The cold front slides into the area on Thursday, ushering in northwesterly winds and cooler air, at least into northern forecast zones. Highs are forecast to range from near 80 degrees near Ord to the low-mid 90s in the southeast.
356 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020 An upper level ridge extended from WI and northwestern MI southwest into the northwestern half of MO, while a slow moving cut-off upper level low was on the border of North and South Carolina. At the surface a ridge of high pressure extends from MI southwest into southeastern MO. Will see a gradual warming trend through Thursday as the surface/low level winds become southerly as the surface/low level ridge weakens and shifts well east of the region. The high temperatures by Thursday will be about 5 degrees above normal for mid June.
Mid level high pressure to the southwest of S TX and low pressure to the northeast of S TX will maintain a northwest flow aloft.
Confidence is increasing for the development of thunderstorms along the cold front passing through Thursday. This weekend looks to be cooler as an upper level trough moves into the region.
Currently a cold front was moving into east central North Dakota. Highs today will be in the lower 70s west to the lower 90s across the southern James river valley. The h500 blocking pattern across the eastern US should persist through the weekend at least before it slowly breaks down. As a result our upper low, currently moving northeast from its position over Idaho, will end up dumbelling around the Canadian provinces.
Central Illinois will remain under the influence of a pronounced upper-level ridge today: however, a closed low currently spinning over the Carolinas will edge northwestward and spread mid/high moisture into the eastern KILX CWA. Despite synoptic subsidence beneath the ridge, scattered to perhaps broken diurnal clouds will develop along/east of I-57. Afternoon high temperatures will be a degree or two warmer than yesterday, mainly in the middle 80s. Any afternoon cloud cover will quickly dissipate by sunset, followed by clear skies tonight as low temperatures drop into the lower 60s. 00z Jun 17 models continue to disagree on how quickly the blocking pattern will break down across the CONUS.
Upper low will continue to spin across the Carolinas during this upcoming taf period.
This is due to another jet streak rounding the base of the upper low over ID. The focus for precipitation will gradually shift to western and northern portions by late morning, as the upper low tracks northeast into southern MT.
The only potential fly in the ointment continues to be a mid/upper low over the Carolinas. In general, it has been helping to maintain drier northerly flow across our area with disturbed weather remaining to our east nearer to the low center. It will be seasonably warmer today with highs beginning to approach 90 again in some areas.
A departing very cold upper trough Wednesday morning will depart the region but low temperatures could affect tender plants. Departing large short wave which brought rains, some heavy, and even some light mountains snows, will actually leave the region and be replaced by a ridge. Stronger winds associated with the trough and jet will diminish under the ridge. Warmer temps and dry air will move in through the short term.
210 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020 Summer warmth for the next couple days with upper level ridge bending across the region and steady, southerly flow at the sfc. Wind shear is displaced to the west, in the cooler air.
Upper ridge pattern remains in place until Wednesday afternoon/evening, as an upper trough axis begins to slide east into the area. Above average temperatures expected tonight, Wednesday, and Wednesday night with southerly flow at the surface and aloft, coupled with WAA and warm temperatures at the lower levels. Lows tonight fall into the upper 60s to mid 70s, with Wednesday night lows in the west slightly cooler with likely precip and the front working into the area. This is the beginning of a more active few days, as the upper low spinning in southern Canada meanders to the east, with a couple of trough axes rotating through our region. This low level jet is expected to continue through the overnight hours creating low level wind shear.
1146 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 High pressure extending across the eastern Great Lakes will maintain an abundance of dry air across Se Mi through the TAF period amidst light easterly sfc winds. * None Another day of ideal weather conditions is unfolding across SE Michigan thanks to high pressure that remains locked in place across the Great Lakes.
1042 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Today through Thursday, the prevailing ridge over the eastern half of the Nation has developed into a blocking pattern, with our region left far enough west to be under the hot portion of the broader ridge. In general, we can expect these conditions to persist through WEdnesday and Thursday as the blocking to our east keeps everything "as-is" here for the next 48 to 60 hours.
Meanwhile, local radars are detecting scattered and an occasional lightning storm on the Straits of Florida, with cells moving across the Lower and Middle Keys communities, and into the Gulf waters north. A persistent, albeit broad mid and upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico to across the Florida Peninsula, and equatorward to the north coast of Cuba will hold firm, resulting in episodes of subtle large scale ascent. Meanwhile, a low level trough just to our north and a western Atlantic ridge aligned on the outer Straits of Florida will provide weak low level confluence. The aforementioned western Atlantic ridge axis to our south will finally lift northward into the Straits of Florida to the southern half of the Sunshine State will become established.
Cold front lays roughly along a line from Sheridan to Riverton to Evanston this afternoon. Think the High Wind Warning will continue to hit through 00Z. Much cooler Thursday with 700mb temperatures possibly falling to 0C for a time.
Temperatures as of 07z were quite comfortable and in the lower 60s where they should generally remain until sunrise. The northerly flow will help to maintain some cooler temperatures, with highs running about 10 degrees below normal for mid-June.
Cold front will make steady progress across SW KS daylight Thursday, ending the relentless south winds. Models shave 5-7C off 850 mb temperatures, and 00z MET/MAV guidance have trended cooler, with many locations holding in the 80s Thursday afternoon.
1149 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Another exceptionally quiet northern Michigan night as deep layer high pressure remains in complete control. Large area of high pressure remains resulting in clear blue skies across much of this entire region. with pronounced ridging and dry air thru the column remaining overhead. Low temps tonight will cool into the low to mid 50s. High Impact Weather Potential: None Synopsis/Forecast: Troughing across the N Rockies will pivot into S Canada through midweek as a cut-off upper-level low continues to sit over the Carolinas.
220 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020 1243 AM CDT A rinse and repeat forecast is in store for today and Thursday as the area remains firmly under a ridge wedged between deep troughing centered over the northern Rockies and a stalled mid-level low over the Mid-Atlantic states. A few pieces of guidance show spits of QPF in the southeast CWA Thursday afternoon under weaker capping on the northwest periphery of the low to the east. Corresponding dew points in the low to mid 60s with this guidance appear overdone, and with no forcing in the area, will maintain a dry forecast.
A cold front will bring showers to northern Utah and southwest Wyoming through tomorrow morning. Cold front is near a KELY-KPVU-KRWL line this evening. Behind the cold front, Utah and southwest Wyoming will see a steady warming trend for the latter part of the week as a drier and warmer airmass moves in.
Strong upper level trough moving through the Northern Rockies at present should begin to induce downstream height falls and finally weaken the stubborn ridge over the plains by Thursday with the trend continuing into the weekend. Some isolated terrain driven showers or storms again possible Thursday afternoon, and by Thursday night, high plains convection will become more active with the weakening of the ridge.
118 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020 High pressure will continue to provide dry and quiet weather through Thursday morning. A very persistent closed low will spin over the Carolinas today before drifting a little northwest towards West Virginia by late tonight. Strong high pressure surface and aloft will remain draped to the north and west of the closed low, maintaining dry weather through tonight. A modest amount of mid/high clouds will begin to spread northward into the region later tonight as the closed low begins to move northwest, and a spoke of vorticity rotates into the eastern Great Lakes. Highs will reach the low to mid 80s at lower elevations, and upper 70s to around 80 on the hills. Light northeast winds will keep the south shore of Lake Ontario a little cooler.
321 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020 U/L cutoff area of low pressure will persist today over the Carolinas.
The rest of the forecast appears on track this evening, with only the extreme NE counties of our area seeing light rain showers through the night as the low pressure system over SC spreads Atlantic moisture westward. VFR and MVFR expected during this taf cycle as llv moisture remains prevalent beneath the upper low. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 63 85 65 89 / 20 20 40 40 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 79 60 83 63 86 / 30 20 60 50 50 Oak Ridge, TN 79 59 83 63 86 / 30 20 50 50 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 72 57 78 59 80 / 60 20 80 70 70.
The cold front has moved through that area with northwest winds ushering in much higher relative humidity. The latest water vapor images show an upper low over the Pacific Northwest with southwest flow and considerable midlevel moisture over the CWA. At the surface, a trough/dryline extended south from a low pressure in far western ND. Later tonight a cold front will cross much of the CWA, reaching near south-central SD by 12z Wednesday. Most of the CWA will be notably cooler on Wednesday. The main focus for a few severe storms will be over south-central SD near the surface cold front, aided by an LLJ and isentropic lift. Thursday will be cooler and windy behind the cold front as a reinforcing shot of cold advection moves in behind the departing wave.
116 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020 High pressure over the New England states will continue to extend over the eastern Great Lakes through Thursday.
20 Our lingering cutoff upper level low will still be the big weather influencer on Thursday. The low slowly lifts up the Atlantic Coast with its center over the Virginia area.
139 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2020 An upper low/trough will move through Montana today and lift north into the Canadian Prairies tonight and Thursday. Temperatures will be much cooler than normal today and Thursday with highs in the 60s in most areas today and 55 to 65 on Thursday. The upper low will be far enough to the northeast Thursday Night for mainly dry weather over the forecast area.
Tonight and Wednesday Persistent high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes and a Rex Block over the eastern U. will slow the approach of a cold front in the Northern Plains, and keep the region dry through Thursday. South winds on the western periphery of the high will bring warmer temperatures into the region, with lows in the 55 to 60 range tonight, and highs in the lower to middle 80s (except lower to middle 70s near Lake Michigan) on Wednesday.
231 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020 Temperatures this morning are a degree or two warmer than this time yesterday and with mostly clear skies, it would not surprise me to see a few spots of fog around sunrise as dew point depressions close in on zero. Today will be very similar to yesterday, maybe a degree or two warmer. A very isolated shower or rumble of thunder is possible on the southern half of the Cumberland Plateau as we continue to deal with the effects of an upper level low east of the state. The upper low begins to pull northward and as it does, a slight westward wobble could open the door for widely scattered showers or a thunderstorm across all of Middle TN.
With the moisture focusing up against the Wind River range tonight, accumulation of 4 to 7 inches is expected for the higher elevations of the western side of the Winds River range, with a light dusting possible for areas like Pinedale (sorry y'all). temperatures will be significantly cooler, with higher elevations not getting out of the 40s, and central lower elevations only in the mid 60s. Thursday, the trough begins to exit the region, setting up jet dynamics favorable for precipitation across northern areas through the day.
Otherwise, going with a dry forecast tonight into Wednesday as mid/upper ridging dominates. Lows tonight will be in the 60s, with highs tomorrow in the low to mid 90s.
338 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2020 Blocking pattern aloft prevailed with a upper trough from the northern Rockies to the Great Basin, an elongated ridge from New England to the southern Great Plains, and stationary upper low over the Carolinas. Band of convection ahead of a cold front was spreading northeast across the central Dakotas. Temperatures ranged from the lower 40s to lower 60s. The front will lift to the north and west this morning as low pressure moves into central WY. The cold front will push south and east through the CWA later this afternoon and evening. Thursday will be much cooler as 700mb temperatures lower to 0 to 5 degrees Celsius.
A low pressure system currently over the northern Rockies will move slowly eastward through Thursday, and keep our afternoon high temps slightly below normal temperature.
408 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020 Deep low pressure over South Carolina has tapped into some drier air and eased a weak backdoor frontal boundary into the area yesterday and overnight. Region however remains in a dry north to northwest flow aloft between the aforementioned mid-Atlantic coast low, and a high pressure ridge extending from south Texas northeast into the Great Lakes region. Pattern breaks down for the new week as coastal low advances north then northeast off the coast and the high pressure ridge to our west advances over and east of the region. Winds will trend somewhat light and variable today, transitioning to light southerly overnight and Thursday as high pressure advances over and east of the region.
(Today and tonight) The long wave trough to our northwest, currently centered over Idaho, will move slowly east today.
The wrap around precipitation associated with the mid level low pressure system is currently affecting Lemhi county into southwest Montana. Snow levels will not get as low as previously forecasted, but snow will affect the higher terrain throughout the Northern Rockies. The current winter weather highlights have been modified for this higher snow level.
937 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020 A vertically stacked trough remains over the Mid Atlantic today. Several lobes of vorticity will rotate around the trough and progress over the TN Valley later today, providing broad scale lift for showers and thunderstorms over the region. Otherwise, look for highs to peak in the low to mid 80s as we gradually warm back to seasonable temperatures.
424 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020 (Today and Tonight) The mainly dry and warm forecast will persist through tonight, with upper level ridging still in place.
However, it will be the last such day in this string of hot days as a cold front is on it's way and will be positioned just northwest of the forecast area by later this evening. Temperatures aloft will actually be a bit warmer today than yesterday and thus as we mix out this afternoon we should see highs that are just a bit warmer than yesterday, which means mid 90s for most everybody. The cold front will likely first enter our northwestern zones just before dawn late tonight. Everyone will feel the cooler weather with highs generally in the 70s.
549 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020 An upper level ridge extended from WI and northwestern MI southwest into the northwestern half of MO, while a slow moving cut-off upper level low was on the border of North and South Carolina. At the surface a ridge of high pressure extends from MI southwest into southeastern MO. Will see a gradual warming trend through Thursday as the surface/low level winds become southerly as the surface/low level ridge weakens and shifts well east of the region. The high temperatures by Thursday will be about 5 degrees above normal for mid June.
As a trough pushes through the region north of our area, an increasing southwesterly gradient will bring breezy to locally wind conditions by late morning. Beyond today, we will continue to see dry conditions as a ridge builds through northern Mexico and into our area over the weekend. The exception, the ridges which are expected to be solidly in Red Flag criteria due to stronger winds aloft.
644 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020 High pressure will continue to provide dry and quiet weather through Thursday morning. A very persistent closed low will spin over the Carolinas today before drifting a little northwest towards West Virginia by late tonight. Strong high pressure surface and aloft will remain draped to the north and west of the closed low, maintaining dry weather through tonight. A modest amount of mid/high clouds will begin to spread northward into the region later tonight as the closed low begins to move northwest, and a spoke of vorticity rotates into the eastern Great Lakes. Highs will reach the low to mid 80s at lower elevations, and upper 70s to around 80 on the hills. Light northeast winds will keep the south shore of Lake Ontario a little cooler.
532 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020 High pressure to bring another round of VFR conditions through TAF issuance.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): Mid-level ridging continues across the Central U. Deep South Texas will be slightly on the lee side of the ridge with dry, northwesterly flow at and above 500mb. This will leave the door open for enough moisture in the low levels, mainly from the surface to 700mb, for low rain chances. Thursday, the overall pattern will remain similar, but the moisture profile in the low level does wane slightly.
633 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020 Who is excited for another warm and windy day? Thankfully it will be our last for the foreseeable future, as the low pressure system that has been sitting off to our west finally passes through the area by tomorrow. As we head into the late afternoon, the cold front associated with the aforementioned low begins to enter our far western counties along the MO River in central SD. By midday, the cold front will be draped across the area roughly along a line from Marshall, MN to Sioux Falls, SD to Sioux City, IA. As the cold front exits the area by late afternoon, expect temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 50s overnight with gusts down to 10 mph.
Otherwise, weak surface ridging lies to our north, providing the area with light easterly winds. Weak ridging at the surface couple with a ridge axis situated in the 925-700mb layer will continue to keep winds around 10 knots or less from the east and southeast. Weak upper level troughing to our west will continue to pump moisture and subtle ripples of energy across the Florida Keys through the end of the week.
The current winter weather highlights have been modified for this higher snow level.