Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Early afternoon water vapor imagery reveals a broad long-wave trough from the Pacific Coast to just east of the Mississippi Valley with an associated closed low over eastern Montana. A warm front --arising from differential diabatic heating-- was located over northeast Kansas, gradually developing north toward the Nebraska border. The most favorable overlap of modest instability and moderately strong vertical shear will reside across southeast Nebraska where the highest probability of a few severe storms will exist. Locally heavy rainfall will also be a concern, though it does appear that the cold front will begin to accelerate east by evening, mitigating a potentially more widespread flash flood threat. On Wednesday, the surface front will stall over or just to the south of southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa as a lee cyclone deepens over the central High Plains.
939 PM EDT TUE OCT 4 2016 High pressure through much of the work week. Matthew from the south and an upper trough from the west will combine for modest rain chances this weekend. High pressure maintains control of our weather from its position over the northeast U. Temperatures between the lower MAV and higher MET for lows tonight as boundary layer flow will make for conditions a bit less than ideal for radiative cooling. Dry conditions with high pressure overhead.
The first freeze of the season is possible for the Lower Chama and Estancia Valleys.
/issued 330 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016/ Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over New England with a mostly serly or srly low-level flow prevailing. Meanwhile a weak trof is noted just off our coastline. Water vapor imagery indicates troffing now in place over the wrn 2/3 of the CONUS with ridging holding firm from the ern Gulf up through the sern states and mid-Atlantic. Short- and medium-range guidance coming into agreement on the combo of the weak sfc trof and a slug of moisture moving out of the nwrn Gulf producing widely scattered showers/few storms tonight and on into morning over mainly the wrn portions of the forecast area.
647 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016 High pressure will remain over the Ohio Valley through the rest of the work week, allowing dry weather to continue.
Noteworthy is 12z RAOB data placed the strength of the mid level ridge and associated low level thermal fields near recorded extremes for many upper air sites through the central U. The evolution of the upper trough poised to develop over the western U. Should this scenario become the consensus then the trough is show to evolve into a large upper low which becomes largely cut off from the prevailing westerlies.
201 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016 The warm weather conditions will persist across our region under the influence of an upper level ridge of high pressure over the southern and central plains.
The latest satellite imagery was showing a low pressure trough building SE across Vancouver Is. The models continue to develop the trough southward along the coast tonight and Wednesday resulting in increasing moisture and precipitation developing across SRN Idaho Wednesday afternoon.
Profiles continue to support stable conditions in the low levels with a high moisture content nosing into the forecast area, so will continue to mention clouds/stratus developing over mainly the eastern CWA. We will see an upper wave move around the subtropical ridge, from the desert southwest.
/issued 316 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016/ Upper ridge over the area will produce unseasonably warm wx for the region most of the week.
340 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016 A cold front will move through tonight bringing drier and cooler air with it. Even cooler air is expected for the first full weekend of Autumn as Canadian high pressure builds in. The short term begins with a dry cold frontal passage for the region late Wed ngt and erly Thu morn, followed up by shwrs and even steady ovrrng rnfl for Thu ngt and Fri with another s/wv and cold front from Cntrl Can, aft a fair and cooler day Thu. Depending on how long rnfl lasts into the day Fri, hi temps Fri may be even cooler than Thu, with lower trrn Nrn lctns perhaps struggling to get into the lower 50s.
232 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016 A large ridge of high pressure across the southeast U.
124 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2016 A weak cold front will move southeast across the region Today.
325 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016 A cut off low pressure centered over the Carolinas lingers over the region through mid week and gradually weakens by the end of the week. The low may help in bringing slightly cooler temps aloft over S Fl, which could enhance the overall instability and thunderstorm activity today through mid week. High pressure will begin to build across the Atlantic while the low continues to weaken veering winds to the southeast.
129 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016 High pressure will dominate the weather pattern through midweek with dry and unseasonably warm conditions.
601 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather for the rest of the week. High pressure over the region will provide another clear night with fog development expected again early morning with strong radiational cooling. Minimal change to the long wave pattern is progged through midweek with flat ridging dominating the Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Regions.
in combination with increasing onshore flow ahead of the digging PacNW trof. The cooler air has made it inland with 20z temps running 5-11 degrees cooler than yesterday. and some 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday. and up to 15 degrees or so cooler through the Carquinez Strait. A little more cloudiness is also expected to develop in Norcal as cyclonic flow increases over the region ahead of the approaching trof the next couple of days. This band developed yesterday and has been squeezed between the digging trof and the open wave moving across Socal. Significant changes are forecast for Wed/Thu over Norcal as the PacNW trof digs in our region.
658 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016 High pressure will dominate our weather for the next several days, with dry conditions, and above normal temperatures for late September. Upr ptrn over the CONUS shows a lrg, flat rdg stretching from TX to the east cst, a deep trof in the west, and a zonal flow running along the nrn tier of the country. By Fri, models do show a broad and shallow trof trying to dvlp over the lakes and a sfc fnt trying to sag south.
253 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather for the rest of the week. High pressure over the region will provide another clear night with fog development expected again overnight with strong radiational cooling. Minimal change to the long wave pattern is progged through midweek with flat ridging dominating the Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Regions.
140 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016 We will remain on the dry eastern flanks of a massive 500 mb ridge most of the coming week. As the northern part of the ridge breaks down, northwesterly flow should push a backdoor front and trough into our region this weekend. We should end up on the northwest flow side of this strong trough.
/issued 357 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016/ Another hot day as temperatures have climbed into the low to mid 90s under mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will begin to cool this evening as the dew points have fallen into the upper 60s to lower 70s as high pressure at sfc has built into the region from the northeast. This area of high pressure is expected to remain in place through the rest of the week.
207 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2016 Dry weather is expected with temperatures running much above normal through the work week as upper ridging remains overhead.
343 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2016 High pressure and no change in airmass will keep temperatures above normal through the end of the work week.
305 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016 The PAH forecast area will remain under the influence of an axis of high surface pressure and an expansive mid level ridge through the short term period, meaning dry and unseasonably warm conditions will continue into the beginnings of fall.
Some ongoing showers (and some thunder) north of the warm front advancing across Minnesota into Wisconsin, although precip does appear to be weakening as it approaches a much drier/stable regime downstream. Tonight and Wednesday: Quiet weather for us overall tonight as high pressure gradually drifts off through the eastern lakes region. Then, aforementioned upstream warm front will further tighten and nose into the northern Great Lakes late tonight through the day Wednesday with deep moisture pooling up along the front from the plains into the Great Lakes.
A large, stacked, low pressure system over Hudson Bay will be drifting northeast through midweek while the next upper level trough is already taking shape over the west coast out of the nearly zonal jet laid out across the US/Canada border. The development of the new upper low over the west coast, combined with the exiting low over Hudson Bay will allow the ridge to amplify across the Central Plains while building slowly westward into the lower Great Lakes. The jet will lift slightly northward today as broad and weak low pressure slowly churns over the Northern Plains. This will allow the tail end of a warm front to lift northward through lower MI later tonight through Wednesday.
240 PM PDT TUE SEP 20 2016 Low pressure off the coast will pull moisture from Tropical Depression Paine into the region through this evening.
However, a low pressure system hanging on over New Mexico may generate a few showers in eastern areas, especially closer to the border with New Mexico.
A broad upper ridge from the plains across the southeast states will continue to pump a dry mid and upper level airmass into the region from the north. The strong subsidence under the upper ridge will keep conditions dry through the near term under sunny skies.
344 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016 We will remain on the dry eastern flanks of a massive 500 mb ridge most of the coming week. As the northern part of the ridge breaks down, northwesterly flow should push a backdoor front and trough into our region this weekend. We should end up on the northwest flow side of this strong trough.
357 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016 Another hot day as temperatures have climbed into the low to mid 90s under mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will begin to cool this evening as the dew points have fallen into the upper 60s to lower 70s as high pressure at sfc has built into the region from the northeast. This area of high pressure is expected to remain in place through the rest of the week.
with an upper low digging south along the Pacific coast and H5/H7 ridge amplifying into the eastern portion of the country.
1250 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016 High pressure continues over the area with light winds. The center of the upper level ridge of high pressure will remain west of AR today. but will continue to see influence from this ridge through the short term period.
315 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016 Upper ridge responsible for this afternoon's anomalously warm mid- September temperatures will flatten a bit on Wednesday, yielding temperatures about 2 to 3 degrees cooler for Weds afternoon.
154 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016 12Z UA charts show that a mid level anticyclone was centered btwn MAF and OUN favoring a SE 7h-5h wind and thus a little cooler in the mid levels. By Wed the presence of the mid level ridge will be less and SW mid level flow will edge into the far wrn CWFA and a few -SHRA/-TSRA may strafe the GDP Mtns/W Eddy Co. Concurrently an upper low INVOF the Great Basin will move into the interior Rocky Mtns and a mid level moist axis will edge back to the e. As the low/trof deepen and move e an attendant slow moving Pacific front will also move e.
An upper trough will gradually shift south over the region the next couple days.
Stg ridge ovhd will combine with drier low lvls to produce mostly clear skies next few days. Although the ridge intensity may gradually weaken later in the week, its ovhd position will remain unchanged. Meanwhile, a deep longwave trough with associated upper low over AZ will likely separate later in the week, with the trof movg east across upper midwest, leaving the upper low spinning over the sw, with upper lvl winds approaching 100 kts on both the lee side and the back side of the low.
A weak upper level trough remains nearly stationary along an axis from the Carolinas through southern Georgia and across the Florida Big Bend region. Mid-level dry air has pushed in to the north of the trough, as evidenced by the 1. Lows and dewpoints will remain in the lower 70s inland, with mid 70s along the coast.
Across the nw third VFR CIGS may give way to MVFR CIGS in a few locales after roughly 09Z, mainly higher terrain where some of the higher peaks may become obscured.
Upper ridging is expected to remain over the southern Plains tonight through Wed. Through Fri night confidence is high that the better rain chances will stay out over the high Plains. While both the GFS and ECMWF continue to separate the trough into northern and southern stream impulses, the ECMWF has backed off retrograding the southern stream disturbance while the GFS still does. Lee trough will result in diurnally gusty south-southwesterly winds this afternoon in Central Kansas, then developing again late Wednesday morning.
220 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016 High pressure will dominate our weather for the next several days, with dry conditions, and above normal temperatures for late September. Upr ptrn over the CONUS shows a lrg, flat rdg stretching from TX to the east cst, a deep trof in the west, and a zonal flow running along the nrn tier of the country. By Fri, models do show a broad and shallow trof trying to dvlp over the lakes and a sfc fnt trying to sag south.
tonight Through Wednesday Breezy to windy conditions will increase tonight and Wednesday as a large Pacific low pressure trough moves inland.
In the upper levels, the high pressure aloft shifts slightly north as an inverted trough slides westward across deep S TX, resulting in a deep easterly flow across S TX.
(Issued 1036 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016) High pressure continues to further build into the Tennessee Valley this morning.
More widespread precipitation will begin tonight as a broad upper trof deepens along the west coast and its associated diffluent southwest flow aloft moisture feed continues over the area.
Weak cold front expected to push into NE FL this eve. Mid/upper low across the Carolinas will shift a bit eastward with spokes of vorticity to rotate around the trough axis.
(Issued 232 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016) A large ridge of high pressure across the southeast U.
317 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016 Upper ridge has settled over the southern CONUS this afternoon while westerlies centered across the northern plains. Low level Gulf moisture has lifted as far north as eastern Nebraska with dewpoints averaging in the lower to middle 70s in northeast KS. Combined with highs in the low 90s this afternoon, heat indices in the 100 to 104 degrees are expected for the next few hours. Upper level moisture streaming across the northern periphary of the ridge will increase high clouds this evening with overall quiet and mild conditions.
Issued by National Weather Service Paducah KY 311 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016 An upper level ridge along with a hot and humid air mass is currently over the region. Temperatures this afternoon are currently in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. Lows tonight will cool into the low to middle 60s across south central Missouri to around the 70 degree mark across southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri. Lows in the lower 60s combined with temperatures falling into the lower to middle 60s will result in the potential for some patchy fog tonight. The upper level ridge will remain over the region through the end of the week resulting in the unseasonably hot and humid conditions continuing.
Expect development overnight as a warm front to the southwest of Wisconsin pushes northeast and encounters some mid level instability. Models have the highest overnight QPF values across central and east central Wisconsin, but totals do not look like anything to be too concerned about at the moment.
Max temperatures this afternoon will again run in the neighborhood of 5-8 degrees (F) above average as dry high pressure continues its influence across the region.
Dry conditions are otherwise expected tonight and Wednesday with upper ridging over the region.
Low temperatures should hold in the lower 60s. For Wednesday, expect temperatures to be similar to today with most locations topping out in the upper 80s to around 90 for highs and low temps in the lower 60s.
Upper ridge will build this way from the southwest and keep a dry forecast going for several days.
Temps are warmer today compared to yesterday, but there could be a few very isolated locations in far Northeast Tennessee/Southwest Virginia that see some fog if they got heavy rainfall a couple of days ago. Moving into tomorrow highs are expected to be a degree or two warmer than today.
121 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather for the rest of the week. High pressure over the region will provide another clear night with fog development expected again overnight with strong radiational cooling. Minimal change to the long wave pattern is progged through midweek with flat ridging dominating the Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Regions.
202 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016 We will remain on the dry eastern flanks of a massive 500 mb ridge most of the coming week. As the northern part of the ridge breaks down, northwesterly flow should push a backdoor front and trough into our region this weekend. We should end up on the northwest flow side of this strong trough.
333 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016 Expect dry conditions tonight and tomorrow as weak front that is currently over the northern CWA will lift northward this evening as warm front. Upper ridge will remain over the Midwest keeping subsidence over the CWA. Britt Unseasonably warm conditions will continue due to upper level ridging over the area and persistent southerly surface winds.
326 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016 High pressure will remain over the Ohio Valley through the rest of the work week, allowing dry weather to continue.
133 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016 A pleasant but warm September day can be expected with highs in the lower to mid 80s.
A moist upper low pressure system is expected to develop over the Great Basin the next two days and bring increasing moisture northward over north central Idaho and western Montana.
345 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016 An upper level ridge axis over the area this afternoon will shift slightly east Wednesday. Wednesday highs should be similar to today, perhaps a degree or two lower with a bit more high clouds and slightly lower upper highs and layer thickness.
Tomorrow as an upper low slips southward and nears the northern Florida peninsula, some slightly drier air may become entrained along its western flank. Weak high pressure will continue to be in place across the local area with weak ridging to the south and a trough in place across the SE Atlantic coast with an upper low above it.
254 PM MDT Tue Sep 20 2016 Water vapor shows deep upper trof working onshore the pac nw with broad wsw flow extending through the nrn plains. broad low pressure covers the cntrl plains/cntrl rockies region with nearly stationary frontal boundary extending from ern Wy through nrn NEB. Chances for pcpn will begin to increase as upper low digs into the Great Basin and flow aloft turns more swly.
119 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2016 A trough along the coast combined with an upper-level low pressure system over the area will result in a chance of showers and thunderstorms for the next few days. Drier conditions and warmer temperatures are forecast later in the week as an upper ridge builds over the southeastern states. Surface circulation associated with former tropical cyclone Julia near Cape Hatteras. Surface front/trough that came through last evening currently offshore the SC coast. So, despite relatively cool temps aloft associated with upper low and dry air aloft, severe threat may be limited. Pop guidance continues to indicate the highest chance rain Wednesday.
1132 AM MDT Tue Sep 20 2016 08z surface analysis had low over northeast WY with warm front into western NE and cold front into ID. Temperatures will be quite warm ahead of cold front over far southern reaches of SD and back into northeast WY where cooler air never really shows up. Moisture slowly increases with cooler boundary layer air pushing into northeast WY. Wednesday, upper trough over the northwest US deepens with southwest flow aloft.
However, the high resolution models as well as most of the global solutions bring more rain into the northwestern CWA after midnight as another round of mid level frontogenesis gets going. After that the focus shifts to the south as an inverted trough extends from eastern SD into southern MN. Highs tomorrow will be impacted by clouds, rain and some weak cold air advection, so kept highs in the 60s to low 70s a bit cooler than today.
Flow is beginning to back from zonal to southwesterly as upstream positively tilted trough deepens along the Pacific Coast. Meanwhile, a weak sfc cold front will slide into the area Wednesday and with a thicker cloud canopy, afternoon highs will be 5-10 degrees cooler west and 10-20 degrees cooler east.
Despite this, temperatures look well on their way to the mid 80s with high pressure in control and warmer air advecting in aloft. A very quiet period is in store, with ridging at the surface and aloft dominating our weather. With the westerlies well to our north and high geopotential heights due to the ridge, we will see above normal temperatures.
/issued 958 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016/ Quiet weather across the region with high pressure at the surface and aloft. Temperatures will climb well above normal while humidity levels remain fairly comfortable as dewpoints mix down into the lower 60s this afternoon. Temperatures are mainly in the low to mid 60s, with Memphis International Airport sitting at 70 degrees. A large upper level ridge of high pressure over the Southern U. Clear skies will result in temperatures peaking in the lower 90s each afternoon with lows in the 60s to around 70 degrees. A dry weekend is on tap as high pressure remains in control.
With 925 temps into the lower 20s celsius any breaks will allow temps to reach the 80s, but cloud cover/precip trends will certainly have a say on temp trends.
Somewhat flat ridge will remain anchored over the southern part of the US for the last part of the week and then begin to build into the northern Miss valley for the weekend, as an upper level trough pushes east into the plains. The extended models remain different in their timing of the upper level trough for the latter part of the weekend. The ECMWF has been the most consistent and slowest over the last several days so will lean toward that solution and have gone several degrees warmer than guidance for highs for Sun and Mon.
An approaching upper trough from the Pacific northwest will cool things down across the interior with the potential for frost along sheltered valley locations.
231 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016 Unseasonably warm weather will continue for the next few days, with each day being only slightly cooler than the last. An deep upper level trough moves in this weekend pulling in some tropical moisture. This will bring cooler weather and increased rain chances.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): The 500 mb ridging currently in place over the south central Plains states will weaken a little throughout the short term period as an inverted trough axis on the south side of the ridge moves west towards the RGV. IR satl imagery shows a cluster of thunderstorms currently firing southwards along the Mexican coastline indicating that the model initialization on the inverted trough is fairly accurate. So will start walking up pops gradually through tomorrow night as the trough axis gets closer. The approach of this trough axis will also start impacting the high temps with the gradual breakdown of the ridge axis lowering max temps a bit. Will lean on the high side of temp guidance for highs and will go close to a model blend for mins.