Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
532 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016 A weak, dry front will quickly move through the CWA this morning, followed by a high pressure area that will dominate the weather through the rest of the day. Winds will be westerly through most of the period, but become light and variable by late this afternoon as high pressure ridge sets up over the area.
Saturday will remain dry and mild as the pattern across the CONUS amplifies with ridging west / troughing east.
An approaching cold front will create windy conditions this afternoon. As another cold front approaches, expect elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon. Otherwise, afternoon highs will be slightly warmer than yesterday, mainly around 60. Tonight, another cold front will sweep across West central Texas. This front will bring cooler air and gusty winds from the northwest.
A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS GULF MOISTURE REMAINS CUT-OFF DUE TO WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW.
SIDED TOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WHICH PUTS MOST AREAS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.
High clouds over most of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas will gradually transition east through the day, with more low and mid clouds expected to move in from the northwest as the upper low approaches later tonight. Have increased sky grids in most areas to account for the high clouds, with some decreasing trend in the early afternoon and another increase toward the evening and overnight. Other weather elements appear on track, with high temperatures today likely to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Saturday will remain dry and mild as the pattern across the CONUS amplifies with ridging west / troughing east.
801 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIDGING BETWEEN UPR MS VALLEY AND SERN U.
859 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 A CYCLONE MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NEW YORK EARLY TODAY.
739 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
Clear skies over the CWA this morning with an upper level ridge axis now over the west coast.
ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUED TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST PUTTING ARIZONA UNDER DRY SUBSIDENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT EARLY THIS MORNING. AND THE LOW LEVELS WERE DRY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 20S. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLE AREA INTO NORTH TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL PASS BETWEEN KACT AND THE DFW METROPLEX. WHICH ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR FREEZING IN NORTHEAST ZONES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TODAY INTO THE LOWER 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES AFTER A COLD START EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MOST READINGS IN THE MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW LEVEL REFLECTION OF THIS TROUGH IS RELATIVELY WEAK. AND WITH VERY DRY AIR PRECEDING IT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE MAIN EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH WILL BE A LOWERING OF A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND PERHAPS SOME DISRUPTION OF DAYTIME HEATING MAINLY OVER WESTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight) A weak cold front stretched from western IL through east-central MO early this morning. This front will pass through the remainder of the CWA by midday with weak high pressure settling into the area in its wake, and high clouds ahead of the Rockies upper trof spreading into the MS Valley. Warm advection will commence this evening in the wake of the migratory high pressure system and ahead of the elongated postively tilted upper trof moving into the central U. While there will be a good deal of clouds accompanying the trof, the region currently looks to be void of precipitation. Forcing/ascent remain well to the south associated with a prominent vort max within the southern portion of the upper trof.
UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. UPPER-TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. ALLOWING FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR FREEZING RAIN. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL COLD AIRMASS TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES AT 900 MB ABOVE FREEZING.
HIGH PRESSURE STILL ON TRACK TO START BUILDING IN TODAY BRINGING PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EASES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST AND EXTEND OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO WILL BE UNDER THE NW FLOW IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A HUGE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP CONCURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.
A TROUGH WILL GRAZE OUR NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY DURING THE DAY BRINGING AROUND 1 INCH OF SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS INCLUDING PINE CREEK AND TETON PASSES.
629 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016 High clouds are on the increase this morning from west to east as the next upper level wave is moving across the High Plains region.
1002 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL STALL ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH VERY COOL DRY AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON BRISK NORTH WINDS. NEXT STRONG U/L DISTURBANCE WILL DIG ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF FLORIDA ALONG THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH AND FRONT MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS.
421 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
822 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
/ISSUED / LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DUAL CORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WHICH IS WORKING IN TANDEM WITH 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO PRODUCE QUITE THE GRADIENT LOCALLY. COLD ADVECTION PATTERN IN FULL FORCE WITH TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND FREEZING FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS AND DEWPOINTS MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH TEENS COMMON. POSITION OF THE HIGH BY TONIGHT POINTS TO A COLD NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. WENT ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH LOWER 20S FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE. UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS.
SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE S ROCKIES ABOUT TO MOVE INTO TEXAS TODAY/TONIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PHASING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE N PLAINS WITH THE WAVE COMING OUT OF THE S ROCKIES INTO TEXAS FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
904 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER OUR REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
RIDGING AT 500MB WILL QUICKLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. LEE-SIDE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY AND INCREASE TONIGHT.
922 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. THE AREA WATERS WILL BE BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. BEFORE BUILDING ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST.
THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST LATER THIS MORNING AS ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY CURRENT DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ACTS TO SHARPEN A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY IMPACT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FA TODAY.
FURTHER WEST, A LARGE SCALE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY, RESULTING IN GRADUAL DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA.
354 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO GRADUALLY WORKING EAST INTO KANSAS THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER COLORADO TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
546 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO NEW MEXICO. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LONG WAVE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
347 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH JUST A LITTLE CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SATURDAY SHOULD BE WARMER AND A LITTLE MORE MOIST.
1125 AM MDT FRI MAR 25 2016 UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO SLIDE SE AND IS IN THE PROCESS OF SPLITTING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS RATHER COMPLEX UPPER LOW OVER THE MT/WY REGION. TROF EXTENDS FROM THE SWRN ND THROUGH SERN WY WITH ARCTIC BOUNDARY OVER NERN MT. UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EWD INTO WRN SD BY AFTN. BUT AS UPPER LOW BECOMES MORE CLOSED OFF OVER WRN SD IN THE AFTN AND ARCTIC BOUNDARY SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTH.
WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO STICKING AROUND. WITH A COOLER START THIS EVENING THANKS TO THE CLOUD COVER TODAY.
THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EASTERN TEXAS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
SHOWERS WILL END THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SCT SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND I-25 CORRIDOR AS A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE PLAINS. BUT IN GENERAL THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE 4 TO 8 INCHES. ROSE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TROF WL MOVE OUT OF CO TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AS THE UPR TROF MOVES OUT OF THE STATE BY SUN MORNING. SUN AND SUN NIGHT AN UPR RIDGE WL BE BUILDING OVER THE STATE. WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AND WARMER TEMPS. ON MON THE UPR RIDGE WL SHIFT EASTWARD AS AN UPR TROF MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN MON NIGHT. THE FIRST HALF OF MON LOOKS DRY BUT IN THE AFTERNOON THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTDVD AS THE UPR TROF GETS A LITTLE CLOSER.
125 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
1211 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016 BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAKE AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO THE NORTH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE SFC LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND PROGGED SOUNDINGS EXHIBITING ABL MIXING UP TO AOA 600 MB WILL BE TAPPING INTO 700 MB WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 KTS. AND TO ALL BUT PERHAPS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
/ISSUED / LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT JUST NOW ENTERING NW PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND THEN IT MEANDERS DOWN THROUGH PORTIONS OF EASTERN ALABAMA WITH A CONTINUED AREA OF LIGHT SHRA MARKING ITS LEADING EDGE. AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE BEHIND IT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT ANDTEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A DIP TOWARD COLD WITH VERY LIGHT NORTHERLYWINDS OVERNIGHT. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY LATER SATURDAYAFTERNOON A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AROUND 60 DEGREES WHICHWILL MAKE FOR A VERY PLEASANT SPRING AFTERNOON WITH DRY WEATHER ANDPARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
304 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 CURRENTLY - A LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND CUBA. AND TEMPERATURES ARE CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. FORECAST - THE LOWER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND AND SWING NORTHWARD INTO FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STRONGER. AND RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT.
Early this morning we'll continue to see light patchy drizzle in low clouds behind a departing low pressure system.
131 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING WITH A SECOND LOW MOVING ALONG THE MAINE COAST WILL MERGE INTO ONE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MARITIMES BY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.
1244 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016 AT H5 RIDGE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH WAVE DROPPING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW IN NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ANOTHER IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. COOLER WEST OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WARMER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BUT TEMPERED BY SNOW FIELD FROM KIML TO SUTHERLAND AND FROM STAPLETON TO ONEILL.
414 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016 It's going to be a cool,and possibly wet weekend, with warmer weather and thunderstorms possible by the middle of next work week.
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE CURRENTLY. WITH THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERLY TO PICK UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. H85 TEMPS WARM TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE FREEZING. NORTHERN CWA WITH SNOW COVER WILL REMAIN COOLER LIKELY ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. 00 RUNS OF THE NAM/EC/GFS HAVE ALL SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
1255 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016 FOR 18Z TAFS AN UNSEASONABLY COOL MORNING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ON AVERAGE OF 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN DAYTIME HIGHS YESTERDAY. THIS CAA IS IN RESPONSE TO A RECENTLY DEPARTED COLD FRONT DRAPED DOWN THE APPALACHIAN MTNS, AND INTO THE NRN GOMEX. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THE LOWER CIGS WILL MAKE IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE KHSV TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A DIP TOWARD COLD WITH VERY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AROUND 60 DEGREES WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A VERY PLEASANT SPRING AFTERNOON WITH DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
634 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
154 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT TODAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.
459 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.
THE MAIN CONCERN HERE WILL BE LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE ALONG THE PINE RIDGE.
647 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
SOUNDING FROM LCH AND AMDAR INDICATES A DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD WITH LL MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 25MB WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ABOVE. /ISSUED 346 AM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016/ PLEASANT WEATHER ON TAP TODAY W/ MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S.
401 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
Latest model data suggests some MVFR cigs will be possible along I-10 Saturday morning, although the models often overestimate how patchy the low clouds can be on the first real day of low level moisture return. Lots of sunshine will help produce afternoon highs warmer than yesterday, mainly in the mid to upper 70s.
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL HAVE A CHANCE TONIGHT FOR THOSE CLOUDS TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH FOR INSTABILITY TO BE GENERATED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS SO VIRGA SHOWERS WILL BE MORE LIKELY. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW LEVEL DRYNESS WILL BE OVERCOME AND SOME RAIN WILL MAKE IT TO THE GROUND SO HAVE LEFT SLIGHT POPS IN FOR THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT AWAY LATE IN THE WEEK AND TURN FLOW TO SOUTHERLY.
IT IS POSSIBLE WE SEE SOME STCU BUBBLE BACK UP ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN COUNTIES WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING THE HIGHEST. WITH THE 500 MB TROUGH HOLDING BACK OVER MICHIGAN. TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE CALM AFTER THE STORM AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR THRU THE COLUMN BUILD INTO MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY YIELDING A MILDER SOUTHERLY FLOW.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AFTER 07Z TO PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA. WHICH WILL IN TURN MINIMIZE HOW WIDESPREAD THE LOW RH VALUES GET AND AMOUNT OF MIXING FOR STRONGER GUSTS. FIRST IN A SERIES OF S/WV TROUGHS PROGD TO AFFECT FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS. THIS S/WV WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE REGION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STALL AS HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES LATE SATURDAY.
232 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
DRY WEATHER ON TAP FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA.
316 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016 A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES TODAY HAS INDUCED BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AGAIN. A DIFFERENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE EAST- SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND AND BRINGS SUNSHINE AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
338 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TO JUST NORTH OF MOBRIDGE. THIS IS WHERE UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT.
LATEST MODELS BRING AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOOTHILLS AND PALMER RIDGE. 5 C COOLER THAN TODAY'S READINGS.
With the increase in clouds and southerly winds, temperatures will remain well above the freezing mark.
WEAK UPSLOPE MAY DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES FOR THE LOWER ELEVATION AND 3 TO 5 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS.
Today through Tonight, an upper level trough across WY and western CO will move east-southeast and amplify across western KS Tonight, then lift east-northeast across the state late tonight. Tonight, a combination of ascent ahead of the upper level trough and isentropic lift, in advance of residual moisture return at 850mb, will cause an area of light rain to develop across the CWA after midnight.
UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO KPDT AND KALW THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
656 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AND MILD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
231 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 A COLD FRONT WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS IS CROSSING THE REGION AND WILL CLEAR THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AND MILD WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
105 PM PDT FRI MAR 25 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH HAS SETTLED INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC FLOW OF THE TROUGH.
153 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 A COLD FRONT WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS IS CROSSING THE REGION AND WILL CLEAR THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AND MILD WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
A warmer day is on tap today. Warm air advection is expected ahead of an approaching cold front.
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE REGION.
248 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AND MILD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S FOR NOW. THE SHORT WAVE MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH IT. THE LOW LAYERS RAPIDLY DRY OUT WARRANTING LITTLE OR NO POPS IN NORTHWEST IA AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT AREAS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW LEVELS. FURTHER TO THE EAST IT WILL BE A BIT TOUGHER AS CLOUDS WILL LINGER LONGER KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARMER.
A DRY AND WARMER WEEKEND CAN BE ANTICIPATED. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND.
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
156 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 HYDRO HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MO INTO SE TX WITH LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUD ICE WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE IN THE LOWEST COUPLE THOUSAND FEET DICTATING THE PRECIP TYPE. ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON DIGGING A PRONOUNCED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN MON AND VERY SLOWLY MIGRATING IT EAST FOR TUE. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT SURGES SOUTHEAST WED AFTERNOON-WED EVENING. LAWSON SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT AND SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING.
341 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.
152 PM PDT FRI MAR 25 2016 A weak back door cold front slides south tonight bringing easterly flow and slightly cooler temperatures for most areas Saturday.
132 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING A COOLER AIRMASS. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM (OVER THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN) ARE IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. WE WILL START TO GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WHICH WILL BRING US MORE DRY WEATHER AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THE RIDGE AND THE EXPECTED ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD YIELD ANOTHER DECENT RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEYS FALLING TO AROUND 40.
612 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL THIS EVENING NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS FLOW STREAM WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT ENERGY SOURCE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR WEAK CYCLONES TO DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS. SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX HAVE BEEN FALLING ALONG A COLD FRONT IN NWRN MN AND ND. A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WOULD RESULT. THIS IS IN COMBINATION WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND TROUGH CONVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH.