Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1215 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020 Short term forecast continues to show no rain in the forecast with ridging building into the region. This will temper the high temperatures for today and Friday.
The high clouds could limit this some, but still think we will see a warm day and dry day across eastern Kentucky. Given the higher moisture and lift is near the Tennessee border have shored up the PoPs through the night, with lesser values in the northern parts of the CWA and best shot across the Cumberland Valley.
1247 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020 A warm front will lift north across the area today with winds becoming south as the front passes. Very dry air with upper single digit humidity values develop west of the trough (west of HWY 83) by Friday afternoon.
Given that expectation, went with the higher guidance numbers, which put us near the 90th percentile of the model blend MaxTs.
145 PM EDT Thu Oct 8 2020 High pressure centered over the area today will build slowly east offering dry weather and above normal temperatures through the end of the week. Low temperatures to range from the mid to upper 40s northeast to the lower 50s southwest.
1228 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020 Key Messages: -Slightly warmer afternoon high in the lower to mid 80s.
1105 AM MDT Thu Oct 8 2020 Upper air analysis shows weak ridging across the western half of the CONUS. Much warmer air will advect into the area today, with highs reaching well into the 80s across much of the lower elevations.
A warm front has been moving north through the area today, shifting winds to the southeast and helping temperatures warm into the upper 70s to mid 80s. Tomorrow, the pressure gradient will tighten over our area as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
137 PM MDT Thu Oct 8 2020 Weak upper ridge that brought the warm day today gets flattened by a disturbance over the Canadian Prairies to bring cooler air into the area tonight and Friday. Winds for our area look to be strongest this afternoon ahead of the cold front thus the Red Flag Warning is effect looks good. Friday looks like a pleasant early October day with light winds and temperatures cooler, but still above normal levels.
Our area will be sandwiched between the upper level ridge that is steering Delta and the storm itself. Storms should clear the area overnight tonight with maybe a few lingering showers over the highway 84 corridor. Scattered to possibly numerous showers and storms will be possible during Friday afternoon along the highway 84 corridor; however, subsidence around the periphery of the storm will likely keep rain chances lower along the coast with some drier air possibly moving through in between bands.
A trough of low pressure across eastern colorado will push eastward into western Kansas tomorrow bisecting the forecast area by tomorrow evening. Winds ahead of this trough will be from the south with northeasterly winds behind it. Mostly clear skies and dry conditions continue through the weekend as high pressure remains the the main feature across the Central Plains.
1244 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020 Upper level ridging continues to give us a string of warm days with highs in the 80s. A warm front will introduce higher dew points today, as wind gusts could get near 30 mph or so as low- level lapse rates increase.
With dry air remaining across our northwest overnight, lows will have a larger than usual range, from the low 70s south and east to the mid to upper 50s for portions of the southern Edwards Plateau. Thicker cloud cover should keep highs in the low to mid 80s on Friday over the northeastern third of the area while some spots hit the mid 90s west and southwest of San Antonio where skies should stay clear and subsidence is expected.
(This evening through Friday) An upper level ridge will continue to dominate the weather across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours.
Today, a warm front will move north across Nebraska. Relative humidity will be mainly in the 20s percent range, but will be in the low teens in southwest Nebraska and parts of the eastern Panhandle. Air will be dry, with the lowest RH in the single digits in southwest and parts of the eastern Panhandle.
Overnight, high pressure shifts east and the low-level wind field kicks in to begin a major transition into warmer air.
308 PM EDT Thu Oct 8 2020 Large high pressure will build into the Great Lakes and northeast tonight.
continued dry and unseasonably warm weather is expected to prevail through the weekend ahead of a cold front.
A warmer night is expected with overnight lows only in the mid 60s thanks in part to a more tropical airmass being advected in today. The initial showers associated with Hurricane Delta will begin to make their way into northern Alabama by Friday with the greatest coverage in showers in the late afternoon into the evening as a pseudo warm front lifts northward across Alabama.
The lower dew points and more downslope flow will lead to warmer temperatures especially over north central Kansas.
343 PM EDT Thu Oct 8 2020 Large high pressure will build into the Great Lakes and northeast tonight.
1240 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020 An upper level low was embedded within a ridge aloft over southwest OK early this morning.
345 PM EDT Thu Oct 8 2020 An expansive area of high pressure overhead will move off the Mid- Atlantic Coast on Friday. A warming trend will continue into the first half of the weekend as low pressure passes north of the Great Lakes.
High pressure ridge axis will keep skies clear to allow radiational cooling Friday night with lows falling to 30 north and 40 south.
242 PM MDT Thu Oct 8 2020 WV imagery this aftn continues to depict general upper-level ridging over the central CONUS. Ridge is shifting ewd and flattening somewhat as multiple impulses across the wrn CONUS and CN promote more zonal flow.
357 PM EDT Thu Oct 8 2020 Shower activity has all but diminished except for a few stragglers in the western Florida Straits south of the Lower Keys. The second is the presence of a low and mid level ridge situated over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Sunshine State.
The morning stratus and cloud shield associated with Hurricane Delta will result in slightly cooler temperatures, especially across southeast. The higher dew points will result in noticeably more humid conditions for most locations.
328 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020 The center of Hurricane "Delta" will move inland Friday then shift northeast into the lower MS Vly. High temperatures over south central MO will be a bit cooler with cloud cover while areas from southeast KS into western MO will be back up into the 80s.
336 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020 The most obvious features in the synoptic pattern per the 20Z water vapor imagery was Hurricane Delta in the Gulf of Mexico and a closed upper low over the eastern Pacific. Otherwise the surface pattern favored southerly flow with low pressure in the lee of the Rockies and high pressure across the upper MS river valley. This should provide some mixing of the boundary layer preventing the formation of ground fog and holding temperatures a few degrees warmer overnight. Lows are forecast to be in the lower and middle 60s. So highs should be a degree or two warmer than this afternoon's highs.
254 PM EDT Thu Oct 8 2020 Ridging aloft in place over the peninsula with east to southeast low-/mid-level flow over the next day or so between Hurricane Delta to our west over the gulf and weak high pressure to the north. Ridging aloft rebuilds across the eastern gulf and western Atlantic into mid-week along with surface ridging off the eastern seaboard. Expect isolated to scattered showers/storms today with limited moisture due to the ridging aloft.
Main concern Sat afternoon will be potential for at least marginal critical fire weather conditions, especially over the ern plains ahead of the lee trough. Could again get close to records at COS and PUB, and a few spots over the lower Ark Valley will push into the 90s. Upper trough then swings quickly through the nrn Rockies on Sun, with upper jet clipping the nrn half of CO during the day.
Another mild and somewhat muggy night is on tap with lows in the low 70s.
522 PM MDT Thu Oct 8 2020 WV imagery this aftn continues to depict general upper-level ridging over the central CONUS. Ridge is shifting ewd and flattening somewhat as multiple impulses across the wrn CONUS and CN promote more zonal flow.
WV imagery this aftn continues to depict general upper-level ridging over the central CONUS. Ridge is shifting ewd and flattening somewhat as multiple impulses across the wrn CONUS and CN promote more zonal flow.
DANGEROUS DELTA EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A Lift associated with an upper trof over TX/OK, coupled with convergent outer rainbands of Delta, continues to promote areas of mainly light rain along with embedded moderate to heavy showers, and an isolated TSTM or two. Increasing wind shear and relatively cooler shelf waters beyond this time should at least put the brakes on any further strengthening, and is forecast to induce a gradual weakening trend as the storm nears the coast. I don't think folks are too concerned about the weather beyond Delta, so to quickly summarize, dry and warm SUN and MON, followed by a mostly dry cold front MON night into TUE that will bring near seasonal temperatures.
745 PM EDT Thu Oct 8 2020 High pressure builds over the area with warming temperatures today.
618 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020 The center of Hurricane "Delta" will move inland Friday then shift northeast into the lower MS Vly. High temperatures over south central MO will be a bit cooler with cloud cover while areas from southeast KS into western MO will be back up into the 80s.
High pressure over the Ohio Valley will push eastward into the Carolinas this evening, tightening the pressure gradient offshore of the Cape. Skies will remain partly cloudy across the area this evening, with lows in the low 70s along the interior, and low to mid 70s along the coast.
644 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020 The most obvious features in the synoptic pattern per the 20Z water vapor imagery was Hurricane Delta in the Gulf of Mexico and a closed upper low over the eastern Pacific. Otherwise the surface pattern favored southerly flow with low pressure in the lee of the Rockies and high pressure across the upper MS river valley. This should provide some mixing of the boundary layer preventing the formation of ground fog and holding temperatures a few degrees warmer overnight. Lows are forecast to be in the lower and middle 60s. So highs should be a degree or two warmer than this afternoon's highs.
Friday will be another warm day under the influence of the ridge over the region before it breaks down this weekend.
723 PM EDT Thu Oct 8 2020 Large high pressure will build into the Great Lakes and northeast tonight.
Highs will range from the mid 80s to the lower 90s.
Winds are calm in a few spots but with the high pressure shifting east and a system moving north of the Dakotas the pressure gradient will steadily climb overnight. Expect slight breezes overnight to keep temps a bit warmer compared to last night. Stumpf (Issued 333 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020) Tonight and Friday: High pressure continues to move eastward across Wisconsin this evening. As the high pressure retreats to the east, a low pressure system will move eastward over Lake Superior on Friday. The associated cold front will move through the area Friday, but it will be dry so rain is not expected. The pressure gradient between the retreating high pressure and incoming low pressure will tighten resulting in gusty southerly winds during the day tomorrow.
1036 PM EDT Thu Oct 8 2020 High pressure centered over the area this evening will build slowly east offering dry and warm conditions through Friday. High pressure moving off to the east overnight will keep cool and dry conditions across the area for one more night.
547 PM EDT Thu Oct 8 2020 Large high pressure will build into the Great Lakes and northeast tonight.
while temps under the increasing cloud cover had warmed back into the low 70s.
741 PM EDT Thu Oct 8 2020 High pressure centered over the area this evening will build slowly east offering dry and warm conditions through Friday.
805 PM EDT Thu Oct 8 2020 Large high pressure will build into the Great Lakes and northeast overnight.
1026 PM EDT Thu Oct 8 2020 Currently - High pressure over the eastern United States is spreading southeastwards into the Atlantic. Drier air remains in place through the lower levels with very dry air and somewhat warm air between 850 and 700 mb. Some of the drier air is also evident at the surface with dew points in the lower to mid 70s. Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to dominate Keys weather through the overnight period, keeping winds mostly moderate out of the east. Temperatures will only fall a couple more degrees with dew points holding in the lower to mid 70s.
A weak and dry cold front is currently located from near Miles City to the Bull Mountains and will slowly move through the forecast area overnight. Cold front passes through this evening to briefly bring cooler temperatures and more modest humidities, though some off- and- on downslope winds tomorrow will keep temperatures in the 70s, so although not as dry or hot as today, still expect above normal temperatures, and humidities dropping into the teens.
Previous Discussion: Weak upper ridge that brought the warm day today gets flattened by a disturbance over the Canadian Prairies to bring cooler air into the area tonight and Friday. Winds for our area look to be strongest this afternoon ahead of the cold front thus the Red Flag Warning is effect looks good. Friday looks like a pleasant early October day with light winds and temperatures cooler, but still above normal levels.
309 PM MDT Thu Oct 8 2020 Overview: A weak, cut-off upper low (presently situated invof El Paso, TX) -- trapped beneath an upper level ridge over the Central Plains -- will slowly meander E-NE toward OK as Hurricane Delta approaches the LA/TX Gulf Coast Today-Tonight. Ridging aloft will prevail over the Central/Southern High Plains on Fri-Sat. as the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Delta progress slowly northward through the Lower MS River Valley. With ridging aloft over the region, above normal temperatures and dry conditions will persist across the Tri-State area throughout the short term period.
This will also keep temps slightly cooler, especially across southeast Oklahoma.
Lee troughing leading to stronger low-level wind fields than recent days with temps still in the 60s in most locations. A weak wave in the northern branch brings a modified cold front southeast into central Nebraska late today and settles into Kansas late tonight. South to southwest winds increase ahead of this front for another quite warm day with low-level temps a bit warmer than Thursday. Have highs in most areas a touch warmer in kind, nearing record levels at Concordia (see CLIMATE section below).
306 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2020 High pressure will be right overhead in the morning.
457 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2020 Mean-layer ridging stretches from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to north of the Lesser Antilles, undercut by a mid-upper level TUTT- like cell south of Cuba. High pressure centered over the eastern United States reaches southwest to the northern Gulf Coast, where the outer cyclonic envelope of Major Hurricane Delta is overtaking the coast. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s.
Expect lows to drop into the low 50s/upper 40s for most of the area overnight, dipping into the 30s in the mountains.
1113 PM EDT Thu Oct 8 2020 High pressure will be right overhead in the morning.
Although a weak trough remains over the area, being on the west side of this powerful hurricane will mean a generally subsident atmosphere for us, keeping the forecast dry and warm. Expect this low clouds/fog to scatter out by mid to late morning, leaving the area under mainly sunny skies for this afternoon.
Expect cooler temperatures for most areas today, except for perhaps far south central and southeast North Dakota which could just receive more of a glancing blow from the cooler air mass behind the front. This setup will allow overnight temperatures to fall near freezing from north central into northeast North Dakota, while keeping lows above 40 in parts of the west.
447 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2020 High pressure building slowly off to the east will offer warm and dry conditions today. With a dry airmass and with warm air advection -- have trended forecast highs toward the warmer end of guidance envelope.
232 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2020 High pressure centered over the area this evening will build slowly east offering dry and warm conditions through Friday. High pressure moving off to the east overnight will keep cool and dry conditions across the area for one more night.
332 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2020 Upper ridge centered near Baja this morning extends up across the SW US as Hurricane Delta moves toward the Upper TX/LA coast. As Delta moves ashore and starts heading NE the ridge will build eastward across TX. At the same time a cut off low will come ashore the Srn CA Coast as a trough moves into WA.
322 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2020 Breezy and very warm conditions will be the rule across central Illinois today with afternoon high temperatures topping out in the lower to middle 80s. As a large ridge of high pressure extending from Ontario into the Mid-Atlantic states shifts eastward, winds will veer to the southwest and increase across central Illinois today. High temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday, generally in the lower to middle 80s.
Otherwise, increasing southerly flow across the area in advance of low pressure hugging the US/Canadian border and cold front across the Northern Plains was keeping temperatures fairly mild. Warm air advection on gusty southwest winds ahead of advancing cold front from the Northern Plains will push 925mb temperatures into the 23-26C range by later this afternoon. That cold front comes through dry tonight as we maintain a very stout cap.
All of these factors combined should help boost temperatures 5-10 warmer than what was experienced yesterday for locations on the Caprock placing daily high temperature records in jeopardy. For locations off of the Caprock, today will be very similar to yesterday with high temperatures only a degree or two warmer.
We will initially see the first widespread rain late tonight with what looks like a deformation zone out ahead, then the main brunt later Sat into Sun as the low/fronts pass. With the system weakening as it moves, our southwest is expected to see the highest rainfall totals, around 3 inches, dropping into the 1. A long wave upper trough will then take hold over the eastern US into late week.
1142 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020 The most obvious features in the synoptic pattern per the 20Z water vapor imagery was Hurricane Delta in the Gulf of Mexico and a closed upper low over the eastern Pacific. Otherwise the surface pattern favored southerly flow with low pressure in the lee of the Rockies and high pressure across the upper MS river valley. This should provide some mixing of the boundary layer preventing the formation of ground fog and holding temperatures a few degrees warmer overnight. Lows are forecast to be in the lower and middle 60s. So highs should be a degree or two warmer than this afternoon's highs.
Upper level ridging will amplify over the central plains for the weekend with above normal temperatures. The upper level ridging will be short-lived as another weather system races east across the northern plains.
Upper and surface ridging will remain across the area overnight producing tranquil weather conditions across the southern Appalachians. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 77 65 75 68 75 / 40 60 70 70 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 64 75 66 76 / 10 60 70 70 70 Oak Ridge, TN 78 63 75 65 76 / 10 70 70 70 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 77 60 70 62 73 / 10 60 70 60 70.
1120 PM EDT Thu Oct 8 2020 High pressure will be right overhead in the morning.
848 PM PDT Thu Oct 8 2020 A weak trough approaching from the west will maintain cooler weather over Southern California into the weekend.
1142 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020 The center of Hurricane "Delta" will move inland Friday then shift northeast into the lower MS Vly. High temperatures over south central MO will be a bit cooler with cloud cover while areas from southeast KS into western MO will be back up into the 80s.
Temperatures were ranging from the low to mid 60s in most locations, however parts of southern MO were in the 50s. Upper level low was lifting northeast out of OK and into southeast Kansas early this morning, while hurricane Delta was still out in the western Gulf.
As Hurricane Delta moves ashore late Today into Tonight, it will lift the front north as a warm front. For Saturday, the region will be between high pressure to the northeast, and the inland remnants of Delta to the northwest.
As mentioned, our next weather system is set to arrive during the day Saturday with ample moisture and much cooler temperatures compared to what we've been used to the past several days. One positive take-away, will be the much needed precipitation associated with this North Pacific low pressure system. It will however, bring pretty gusty winds as the cold front moves through the region Saturday afternoon. Afternoon temperatures will be around 10 degrees cooler than what we'll see today. As the front pushes through overnight Saturday, an even cooler airmass will move in behind the front.
The passage of this trough will usher in a bit of a cooldown for tonight and Saturday. The term "cooldown" is being used generously here since we will still be in the low 80s, which is 15 degrees above our normal.
An isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out, but warmer temperatures aloft (~-5C at 500mb) should limit the lightning threat. The terminals with the highest confidence of seeing shower activity into this evening are KDAB/KTIX. The tightening pressure gradient between high pressure pushing eastward into the Atlantic off of the Mid- Atlantic coast and Hurricane Delta making landfall today along the Louisiana coast this evening will cause the pressure gradient to tighten across the local area.
The cold front has entered northwest North Dakota. Winds along the cold front are trending toward the higher end of guidance, which had already been incorporated in the previous forecast. Expect cooler temperatures for most areas today, except for perhaps far south central and southeast North Dakota which could just receive more of a glancing blow from the cooler air mass behind the front. This setup will allow overnight temperatures to fall near freezing from north central into northeast North Dakota, while keeping lows above 40 in parts of the west. Strong southerly flow underneath the ridge will advect warm air into the region, especially farther west where highs could reach 80 on Saturday. A well advertised trough will arrive on the Pacific Northwest coast on Saturday.
75 inches, with most of the that in the lowest 300mb.
A weak cold front is resulting in some wind and still warm/dry conditions over ridges. Saturday will see increasing mixed southwest winds ahead of a Pacific NW trof moving ashore. Eastern areas will also be very warm and dry but with much less wind along thermal trof axis. JKL A strong cold front is still progged to move through the area Saturday evening/night bringing strong northwest winds with, and behind it.
647 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2020 High pressure building slowly off to the east will offer warm and dry conditions today. With a dry airmass and with warm air advection -- have trended forecast highs toward the warmer end of guidance envelope.
Therefore, no headlines are planned for fire weather even though fire danger remains in the high to very high range. High pressure glances the area tonight with another wind shift ahead of a Rocky Mountain low. However, temperatures will be cooler and Rh will reflect that.
The high surf warning will continue through this evening as well. Temperatures will warm up through Saturday as mid- level ridging takes hold over the area. Look for highs in the lower to middle 90s today, and highs ranging from the middle 90s in eastern areas to just over 100 degrees out west on Saturday.