Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
MLCAPE peaks around 200 j/kg over the higher terrain with very little over the plains. A trough axis makes its way into the High Plains Thursday which initially doesn't bring much precipitation to our region.
This won't lead to drastic warm ups, but it should make this morning the last time we fall below freezing for a while. Despite the WAA cloudy skies will prevent temperatures from being much warmer than Wednesday.
Temperatures will be warmer than yesterday, with highs reaching into the 40s to near 50 degrees. 20", with the higher amounts occurring as a result of weak convective forcing during the afternoon and early evening. Looking at the temperatures for Thursday, we will start out in the lower to middle 30s before warming into the 40s to near 50 degrees.
A stratus deck will return overnight and in the early morning hours in response to the low level moisture increase, which will keep overnight lows on the warmer side, bottoming out in the mid 50s to low 60s tonight. Gordon Previous Discussion: /Through Wednesday Night/ Surface winds continue to veer to a more southeasterly direction, as a high pressure ridge centered near Memphis moves slowly eastward and away from the region.
Slight shower chances at times over the higher elevations with locally breezy winds. This short wave is embedded within a long wave trough over the west and we will see another wave pass over NorCal on Thursday.
504 AM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Cool high pressure will build over the area through late week. A warm front will move slowly north into the area over the weekend. The cold front has moved offshore and now so have the last of the lingering post frontal showers. Trailing band of clouds was also moving east and should be offshore by mid morning followed by mostly sunny skies for the remainder of the day as high pressure builds into the area. Much cooler air was flowing into the region on northerly winds behind the cold front. High pressure continues to build in from the north tonight producing clear skies and cool temperatures along with a N/NW breeze. Below normal temps will continue with lows inland in the low to mid 40s and mid to upper 40s beaches.
Under mostly clear skies, daytime highs will generally top out between 90 to 95 degrees across the lower deserts.
556 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Key Messages: - Warmer with some wind for Wednesday.
737 AM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 An upper low moves down the Saint Lawrence Valley today with a trailing trough swinging out over the Atlantic and an accompanying front slowly moving down the state. High pressure in the wake of the front will increase winds. Robust winds continue across the waters Thu-Fri then diminish for the weekend as the high pressure shifts out over the Atlantic.
412 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Ridging remains over the region today with continued easterly breezes.
640 AM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 An upper level low is quickly exiting east of the region this morning, with good deep layer subsidence in its wake. Grass has been greening up as well over southeast Michigan, and will just stay close to latest MAV guidance, which calls for the lows in the 20s/near record cold, with downtown Detroit/eastern Wayne a bit warmer (around 30 degrees).
206 AM PDT Wed Apr 27 2022 A drop in afternoon highs will occur today with a further decrease expected on Thursday as a dry trough passes through. Warmer highs in the mid 80s will return this weekend as high pressure builds. High temperatures were a few degrees lower yesterday, though still slightly above average, courtesy of an approaching trough of low pressure. Cooler than average temperatures, or by around five to seven degrees, are in store for Thursday. Increased westerly winds with gusts of 50 to 55 mph are likely in the Kern County desert and adjacent slopes during Thursday afternoon and evening as the trough moves further inland.
Thursday will be slightly warmer with highs in the mid to upper 80s across much of the area with the lower 90s possible near Falcon Lake.
639 AM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Chilly weather continues today with highs ranging from the lower 40s near Lake Michigan and into the upper 40s to near 50 well inland. Another round of freezing temperatures expected late tonight, mainly across southern Michigan, northeast Indiana into northwest Ohio. Ridging surface/aloft in wake of strong cutoff low over north central Lower Michigan progressing eastward into New England by this evening. Decent amount of insolation and warming 850-800 mb layer today should allow surface temperatures to rebound from sub- freezing this morning to a few degrees warmer than yesterday. For tonight 925mb thermal trough shifts eastward into Quebec/Lower Great Lakes with southwest periphery into northeast CWA. Progressive increase in longwave ridging over the next several days into the weekend as northeast CONUS vortex slows across Canadian Maritimes.
607 AM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 High pressure moves into the region today bringing below average temperatures and abundant sunshine. Frost is likely in central Ohio tonight as temperatures drop into the low 30s under the high. Frosty conditions this morning, especially north of the Ohio River, will give way to abundant sunshine today thanks to high pressure moving in from the northwest. Expect highs in the lower 50s across central Ohio to the middle 60s by the Ohio River with northwesterly winds. High pressure drifts further northeast on Thursday. Moderating temperatures and increasing clouds develop over the area in the southeasterly flow southwest of the high.
635 AM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Cool high pressure will build over the area through late week. A warm front will move slowly north into the area over the weekend. Trailing band of clouds was along the coast and should be offshore by mid morning followed by mostly sunny skies for the remainder of the day as high pressure builds into the area. Much cooler air was flowing into the region on northerly winds behind the cold front. High pressure continues to build in from the north tonight producing clear skies and cool temperatures along with a N/NW breeze. Below normal temps will continue with lows inland in the low to mid 40s and mid to upper 40s beaches.
625 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Ridging remains over the region today with continued easterly breezes.
532 AM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Other than scattered rain and snow showers today, cooler and dry weather is expected the remainder of the work week. Building high pressure should result in clearing skies and diminishing wind tonight.
914 AM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 High pressure moves into the region today bringing below average temperatures. Frost is likely in central Ohio tonight as temperatures drop into the low 30s under the high. High pressure drifts further northeast on Thursday. Moderating temperatures and increasing clouds develop over the area in the southeasterly flow southwest of the high.
839 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022 It's been a chilly start to the day across the Tennessee Valley, as temperatures at sunrise bottomed out in the low to mid 40s. However, with high pressure setting up over the area today, we can expect ample sunshine and thus a warmer day than yesterday as winds veer to the east in the afternoon. All in all a fairly pleasant late April day after the cool start as temperatures rebound into the low to mid 70s by this afternoon. As we see the upper-level ridge shift east over the region, building upper level heights and a shift to southerly flow on Thursday will lead to a warming trend over the next few days.
628 AM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 A dry and cooler air mass will build into the region today and Thursday.
1010 AM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Cool high pressure will build over the area through late week. A warm front will move slowly north into the area over the weekend. Trailing band of clouds was along the coast and should be offshore by late morning followed by mostly sunny skies for the remainder of the day as high pressure builds into the area. Much cooler air was flowing into the region on northerly winds behind the cold front. High pressure continues to build in from the north tonight producing clear skies and cool temperatures along with a N/NW breeze. Below normal temps will continue with lows inland in the low to mid 40s and mid to upper 40s beaches.
643 AM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Drier and cooler air infiltrates the area through most of the week. Latest sfc analysis shows a cold front right along the coast which will push offshore over the next few hours. This will pave way to a noticeably cooler day than the last few days, with high temps only in the low/mid 70s. High pressure ridging from the NW and ongoing CAA will keep area dry and cool Thursday, with clear skies and high temps in the low 70s.
615 AM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Other than scattered rain and snow showers today, cooler and dry weather is expected the remainder of the work week. Building high pressure should result in clearing skies and diminishing wind tonight.
Cooler temperatures and breezy afternoons are expected to continue while additional chances for light rainfall will be confined to northern portions of the CWA on Thursday.
The next system will focus additional rain showers across southern parts of the CWA tonight, then attention turns to the next approaching Colorado low pressure system approaching for late this week into the weekend. The latest 00Z ensemble guidance continues with the jog south of the forecast storm track, keeping the highest chance for steady rainfall along the Yellowstone River Valley and to the southeast, with progressively lesser amounts of rainfall to the northwest. Longer term, ensemble guidance introduces a more marked warm up across the region once the upcoming low pressure system clears the region.
212 PM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Chilly weather continues tonight with sub-freezing lows over parts of southern Michigan into northwest Ohio.
301 PM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 High pressure north of Lake Superior will start to gain some control of our weather tonight.
It's been a chilly start to the day across the Tennessee Valley, as temperatures at sunrise bottomed out in the low to mid 40s. However, with high pressure setting up over the area today, we can expect ample sunshine and thus a warmer day than yesterday as winds veer to the east in the afternoon. All in all a fairly pleasant late April day after the cool start as temperatures rebound into the low to mid 70s by this afternoon. As we see the upper-level ridge shift east over the region, building upper level heights and a shift to southerly flow on Thursday will lead to a warming trend over the next few days.
305 PM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Cool high pressure will build over the area through late week. A warm front will move slowly north into the area over the weekend. Sprawling high pressure over the Upper Great lakes will control our weather Thursday. Despite a full day of sun, a chilly start combined with lower thickness values will translate into highs mainly in the 60 or about 4 degrees cooler than today.
Scattered to numerous showers are expected to develop causing rain in the valleys and snow in the higher terrain.
Upper level troughing across the Pacific Northwest will keep chance of showers in the forecast through the day. An upper trough will keep a chance of showers in the forecast for the next few days.
Ridging aloft will continue to build over the Southern Plains as it migrates eastward toward the area. Expect mostly clear skies with low temperatures ranging from the mid 40s across the north and west to the low 50s across the southeast. A cold front will advance south from the Ohio River Valley into Southern Appalachian region during the day Thursday. Look for Mostly sunny skies across the area with highs ranging from the upper 70s east and northeast to readings in the lower 80s south and west.
325 PM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 High pressure will prevail into late week. High pressure will build in from the northwest and strengthen overnight allowing dry and seasonably chilly air mass to settle in. Given the low dewpoints to start the night we have leaned toward the cooler model guidance for low temps, generally ranging from the mid to upper 40s inland to lower 60s along the coast. Aloft, the axis of a mid/upper ridge across the Central US will gradually propagate toward the forecast area.
The stratus deck seen in southwest Oklahoma builds north late tonight through the day and, along with any continued precip, makes for a cooler day.
Highs will be a touch cooler ranging between the low 50s in southwest Minnesota to mid to upper 60s across the Missouri River due to the cloud cover.
201 PM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Drier and cooler air infiltrates the area through most of the week. High pressure will control area weather through the period, resulting in mainly clear skies and dry conditions.
1032mb high pressure near Thunder Bay Ontario, is resulting in considerable dry advection in the low levels. The high will be just north of this forecast area by morning. Becoming warmer but still a Little Below Normal. A narrow ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will move into the Great Lakes and park itself across the region through much if not all of the period. In addition, it will definitely feel warmer over the next few days as compared to the recent abnormally chilly readings.
East to southeast winds generally in the 5 to 10 knot range to prevail at the terminals through roughly 00Z this evening except for KHRO and KBPK in the higher terrain where afternoon winds may gust as high as 16 knots. High pressure will remain in control today with SKC and E/SE winds with afternoon. Today Through Thursday Night Quiet weather conditions were ongoing this morning across the Mid- South thanks to high pressure centered invof IL/IN/KY. Aloft, a broadening and flattening ridge will move into the region today.
An upper level low continues to march slowly eastward across the Gulf of Mexico.
High pressure is in control across the Mid-South with sunny skies, a dry airmass and temps in the lower 70s.
Fair skies beneath high pressure will persist. Expecting min temps tonight to be 3-to-6 degrees warmer than this morning, and so will not issue any frost advisory.
347 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Generally pleasant conditions today will continue through tonight but the high pressure over our area will begin to move eastward.
High pressure building into the region will keep skies in VFR through the forecast period.
445 PM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 High pressure north of Lake Superior will start to gain some control of our weather tonight.
146 PM PDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Cooler weather with a greater influence from the marine layer is expected through Thursday. Gusty westerly winds across the mountains and deserts will be boosted by a trough of low pressure moving through the region.
142 PM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Another round of freezing temperatures expected late tonight, mainly across southern Michigan, northeast Indiana into northwest Ohio. Ridging surface/aloft in wake of strong cutoff low over north central Lower Michigan progressing eastward into New England by this evening. Decent amount of insolation and warming 850-800 mb layer today should allow surface temperatures to rebound from sub- freezing this morning to a few degrees warmer than yesterday. For tonight 925mb thermal trough shifts eastward into Quebec/Lower Great Lakes with southwest periphery into northeast CWA. Progressive increase in longwave ridging over the next several days into the weekend as northeast CONUS vortex slows across Canadian Maritimes.
VFR will continue through this taf cycle with dry high pressure over the region.
Winds are expected to stay up overnight and that will keep overnight minimum temps a bit warmer. Lows will range from the upper 30s to the lower 40s over SE Indiana and into the Bluegrass region.
/issued 1159 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022/ High pressure prevails across the area with full sun. Expect highs in the lower to mid 70s.
134 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Key Messages: - Warmer with some wind for Wednesday.
Prev forecast was on the cooler side of the latest NBM and I like that to remain as the official forecast. Dry air, supported by mixed Td today along with surface ridging settling in supports the mid/upper 40s areawide.
219 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Tranquil conditions across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon with high pressure in control of the weather. Still, expect mostly sunny and dry conditions in place and subsequently a warmer day thanks to the southerly flow as highs in the 75 to 80 degree range will be common.
High temperatures should have a few hours in the late afternoon as clouds continue to scour out to warm a few more degrees to still reach around 40 to the lower 40s for most spots. With the high becoming more firmly established into the central Great Lakes into tonight, winds are anticipated to trend towards calm, and with clear skies, excellent radiational cooling conditions are anticipated. Low temperature records for tonight will be in play (Climate section below), with lows region-wide down well into the 20s and holding onto the low 30s in the Detroit metro.
256 PM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 High pressure will control the weather pattern through the remainder of the workweek, resulting in temperatures that will be several degrees below normal with otherwise dry conditions.
253 PM MDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Short wave trough passing over Colorado will bring scattered showers and few thunderstorms this afternoon. Airmass will remain on the mild side withe lows in the 35 to 45 degree range across northeast Colorado. A weak cold front backdoors into far northeast Colorado. Thursday evening, a trough approaches from the west with an axis of instability positioning to east brushing the far northeast corner of CO.
123 PM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Drier and cooler air infiltrates the area through most of the week. Latest sfc analysis shows a cold front right along the coast which will push offshore over the next few hours. This will pave way to a noticeably cooler day than the last few days, with high temps only in the low/mid 70s. High pressure ridging from the NW and ongoing CAA will keep area dry and cool Thursday, with clear skies and high temps in the low 70s.
The higher chances tonight are expected to be near or south of I-90 overnight. Given temps dipping into the low to mid 30s and residual dry low-level air beneath warming air aloft, a marginal freezing rain/mixed precip environment could exist for a time late tonight, but not expecting much in the way of impact with warmer road temps and air temps near/above freezing.
The lows are expected to be colder than last night with lower to mid 20s anticipated at many locations and perhaps even some teens for the typically colder locations up north such as Leota.
1159 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022 High pressure prevails across the area with full sun. Expect highs in the lower to mid 70s.
148 PM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 High pressure brings dry, cool weather through the end of the work week. Temperatures tonight will drop to below freezing roughly across the northern half of the area, with a gradient across the south raging into the upper 30s. On Thursday, high pressure at the surface and upper ridging moving in from the west will result in dry weather through the day. A rather cold morning is expected, and then temperatures remain on the chilly side throughout the day, with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s in the lowlands and mid 40s to 50s in the mountains. Models project a low pressure system develops and strengthens over the Plains states late in the work week, and pushes a warm front towards the CWA from the southwest.
229 PM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Dry high pressure continues to build into the today, with temperatures steadily recovering into the weekend.
Temperatures will be noticeably warmer tonight with a persistent southerly wind in place across the region along with an increase in cloud cover.
Otherwise, a clear, slightly cooler night is in store for most of the area with lows in the 50s. High pressure slides off to our east on Thursday, bringing a return to east/southeast winds. Highs will be in the lower to middle 80s under mostly sunny skies.
1136 AM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Other than scattered rain and snow showers today to the north of I 80, cooler and dry weather is expected the remainder of the week. No appreciable change outside of near-term tweaks to wind and temperature were needed for the aftn update as cold nw flow via nern CONUS troughing continue to fuel stratocu and some showers of rain and snow to the north of I 80. Building high pressure is still expected to clear the sky and lighten the wind tonight; hence, radiational cooling is likely to support a hard freeze and threaten record lows after this aftns cold start.
148 PM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 High pressure moves into the region today bringing below average temperatures. Frost is likely in central Ohio tonight as temperatures drop into the low 30s under the high. High pressure drifts further northeast on Thursday. Moderating temperatures and increasing clouds develop over the area in the southeasterly flow southwest of the high.
Temperatures on Thursday will be slightly cooler as a colder airmass filters in behind a departing weak upper level trough tonight. In addition to slightly cooler air, the trough will also bring some precipitation chances along the Nebraska/Kansas border before sliding into central Nebraska. Lingering showers are possible into Thursday across portions of north central Nebraska as the trough pushes northeast into Iowa.
233 PM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 A dry and cooler air mass continue building into the region tonight and be over the area Thursday.
While tomorrow morning will not be quite as cold as this morning, it will still be cool under a clear sky with morning lows in the lower 40s across the higher terrain of north Georgia and mid-40s to lower 50s elsewhere. High pressure will persist tomorrow as an upper-level ridge centered on the CONUS continues to promote subsidence over the Southeast. Highs tomorrow will be in the mid-70s to lower 80s -- in general, a couple degrees warmer than today.
At the surface, the region will be situated between high pressure to the east and low pressure to the southwest tonight, with the low sliding from the central Rockies to eastern Colorado/western Kansas overnight. The low center moves very little until late Thursday night, when it finally shows some signs of sliding eastward, with a better potential for showers, and maybe a few thunderstorms, developing over the western half of the CWA late Thursday night. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 30s, with highs ranging from the upper 40s east to the lower to mid 60s west on Thursday. Lows Thursday night will be in the lower to mid 40s.
303 PM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 A mid-level ridge is located over Central Indiana and has allowed for dry weather and mainly clear skies for most of the day. Current satellite imagery shows clouds beginning to move into northern counties as a weak impulse rides over the ridge. A notable temperature gradient is present across the CWA with temperatures in the low-mid 60s across the south with low-mid 50s across the north.
A northeast surge will move down the coastal waters this afternoon, following the frontal passage, as high pressure builds to the north and northeast.
315 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Upper level ridging is currently building into the Midwest and will continue to do so overnight. Being under the ridge will result in a quiet night. Highs Thursday will vary widely, as locations that see rain earlier in the day will be much cooler than those that do not. An upper level trough will traverse the Intermountain West Thursday night. This low will be the focus for the extended.
100 PM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 High pressure will prevail into late week. High temps should be 75-80 inland from the cooler shoreline locations, warmest in GA. Tonight: High pressure will build in from the northwest and strengthen through the night, allowing for clear skies to dominate. Prevailing high pressure will shift south on Thursday and another dry day is expected.