Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper ridge parked over the Gulf Coast will keep the weather dry and warm today.
631 PM EDT Fri Oct 14 2016 The high will crest over the region tonight into Saturday.
Strong high pressure will remain along the east coast as a weak area of low pressure moves east along the southern U.
Regarding the High Wind Warning, a few sites along the I-80 corridor out near Arlington have reached or surpassed warning threshold, with a couple others in central and northern Carbon County quite close in the low to mid 50mph range. In addition, moisture advection from the west and cooler temps will keep humidities overall higher in the upper teens to low 20s. A few rain/snow showers still look possible over the high mountains and vicinity tomorrow morning with increasing moisture, but no impacts are expected.
138 PM EDT Fri Oct 14 2016 High pressure centered over the local area will shift to New England today. The high will continue to influence the area into Saturday.
Minimal impacts at best until possibly later tonight, when areas of fog and patchy drizzle could set in under the mid level trof. warmer air aloft. and increasing southerly flow at the surface should keep the region dry and warmer through the end of the period.
127 PM EDT Fri Oct 14 2016 High pressure today. Very weak warm front crosses Saturday.
Temperature/dewpoint depressions are the lowest near Garden City. Today/Tonight: Today will be much warmer than compared to yesterday. This is a result of a stronger High Plains lee trough with warm air advection. 850-hPa temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 20s west to upper teens east. Lows tonight will be warmer too with the southerly winds continuing - 50s to 60s.
Starting with data analysis, low pressure was making it way across the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains. Strong southerly low level moist flow ahead of this low was pushing stratus rapidly northward into the region. Low pressure tracks into Ontario Saturday, dragging a cold front through the region in the afternoon.
As high pressure currently centered over New York moves further away, surface winds will veer to the south tonight. As the pressure gradient tightens between the departing high and an approaching cold front, gusty southwesterly winds will develop on Saturday, which will eventually scour out the low clouds and fog.
1247 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 Zonal to southwest flow aloft will lead to warmer temperatures today, while an increase in moisture will bring the potential for fog and drizzle heading into tonight. The low clouds mix out and shift east of our area for the day time hours and southerly winds will be on the increase as the surface gradient tightens. The low amplitude character of the flow will result in fast- moving systems with little or no time to entrain any decent moisture. As this low tracks across the Dakota's.
Weak low pressure was over northern Louisiana, with a weak surface boundary extending into Arkansas. At the same time, an upper trough was moving over the region. As upper ridging builds back into the region later today, precipitation should clear out during the afternoon. Winds will come back around to the south, with warmer temperatures noted tonight and Saturday.
Large cool area of high pressure system is retreating further east this morning allowing pressure gradient to increase over MN and the Dakotas. This all ahead of a developing cold front. temperatures will be influenced by some downslope near the buffalo ridge region. Should be able to warm through the lower 70s there. Extensive stratus will continue ahead of a cold front pushing across the region Saturday. Weak high pressure will pass directly overhead Saturday night.
Dewpoints could mix into the lower 50s to the south of the front today, though high clouds could limit the mixing potential and keep dewpoints a few degrees higher.
156 PM EDT Fri Oct 14 2016 High pressure will dominate our weather through Saturday.
Strong winds being reported in Idaho and western Montana ahead of this low in area METARs. Red Flag Warnings look in good shape with the low humidity recoveries being seen so far this morning.
High pressure centered just to our east this morning will continue to drift slowly away from central Illinois today. As the high shifts well off to our east today, southerly flow will bring warmer air back into the area this afternoon with highs expected to push back to between 65 and 70 degrees. A band of lower clouds currently across Kansas into western Missouri will stream northward and remain west of our area today, but should gradually shift east into central Illinois overnight which will result in much warmer readings overnight as the mercury settles into the low to mid 50s accompanied by a gentle southerly breeze.
1155 AM MDT FRI OCT 14 2016 18Z TAF CYCLE Winds will become gusty today as winds aloft strengthen, strong atmospheric mixing develops in well above normal high temperatures, and a lee trough persists at the surface.
335 PM EDT Fri Oct 14 2016 High pressure will remain over the forecast area for the start of the weekend.
Mid level (700mb) frontogenesis with passage of trough should lead to thicker cloud cover.
1244 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 The cold front that has pushed into our northern counties will continue to slide south this afternoon.
150 PM EDT Fri Oct 14 2016 High pressure builds in through Saturday.
342 PM EDT Fri Oct 14 2016 High pressure will maintain dry conditions across the region through Saturday evening with seasonably warm temperatures.
However, moisture will remain in the lowest levels of the atmosphere. Low level moisture will remain in place across the region through the weekend as a surface lee trough develops across the Central High Plains. This lee trough will develop in response to a low pressure system moving into the Pacific Northwest. The increase in low level moisture coupled with the upper ridge aloft will result in hot/humid days and warm nights for mid October.
321 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 Visible satellite shows the low clouds are beginning to erode over portions of central KS. Ahead of that wave the low level jet will strengthen over eastern KS through tomorrow evening. The low level jet should prevent the surface from fulling decoupling.
Dry weather will occur this afternoon behind the trough with warmer conditions starting to spread back into the area. Highs this afternoon will range from the middle 60s across south central MO to the lower 70s across extreme southeastern KS and far southwestern MO. Lows tonight will only cool into the upper 50s to the middle 60s as the warmer air mass accompanied by cloudy skies spread across the region.
High pressure will build South across the region this period. The gradient is expected to tighten somewhat as the ridge strengthens into Saturday, with moisture increasing.
VFR conditions are expected today and tonight with broad mid-level high pressure extending over the northern Gulf of Mexico to Northeast Mexico. 500mb ridge across northwest Mexico will build eastward across northern Mexico into southwest TX tonight into Saturday in the wake of the upper level trough moving eastward across east TX tonight into the southeast United States Saturday. An onshore flow will prevail across the lower TX coast today through Saturday but subsidence will keep a lid on convection developing across the area tonight into Saturday.
A broad continental high pressure cell persists across the eastern United States. weak upper level ridging persists across Central America and the Western Caribbean. Water vapor imagery depicts a nebulous pattern across our latitude, while a positively tilted short wave trough presses east through the southern Plains. The short wave trough sliding into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico will continue to the east-southeast tonight through Saturday night.
100 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 At 08z, a little higher based stratus starting to sneak up into the lower Missouri valley, an offshoot of larger mass of stratus to the south. Northward push today will be a bit problematic as gradually increase mixing, especially for the lower stratus forming across central KS pulled northward with strong southerly low-level jet. A nicely sheared layer atop the low level moisture suggests that drizzle will be possible, and perhaps even some fog as stratus lowers toward areas of higher terrain near/east of I-29. Kept highs a little cooler over northwest Iowa where it looks like the stratus will hang in the longest. Cooler air will settle in Saturday night which should erode the stratus and push it to the southeast.
There remains a slight chance for thunderstorms across the northern and northeastern portions of the forecast area Saturday afternoon and evening, but best chances will remain north of the area closer to a stalled cold front and associated upper wave.
For tonight and Saturday the low level pattern will remain unchanged as high pressure continues to ridge down the eastern seaboard keeping an east to northeast flow across the region. Temperatures will remain seasonable with lows ranging from the mid 60s far north to the lower 70s near the coast from around Tampa Bay southward, and daytime highs on Saturday climbing back into the middle to upper 80s.
Pacific cold front passed through our CWA this morning with gusty west winds and a rapid drop in temperature. The storm's cold front will move into eastern Oregon Saturday afternoon and western Idaho Saturday evening with considerably more rain and wind than today's storm.
In summary, expect warmer temperatures, breezy conditions and increasing cloudiness today.
06Z surface data had high pressure over the Great Lakes with a weak low in southeast Colorado. Quiet and dry conditions will be seen today and tonight as high pressure moves into the eastern Great Lakes. After sunset, the low clouds will slowly move east through sunrise Saturday. This is most true over the northwest where the moist layer is deepest and the cooler boundary layer exits.
As previously mentioned, winds will turn to the southwest around midnight which will help to dry the low-levels. This southwestward turn will be in response to today's lee trof digging farther south and eastward. Warmer H850 temps along with increased thicknesses associated with an upper ridge building overhead will warm temps to well above average.
217 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 Area of mainly light rain continues to sluggishly penetrate eastward across Middle Tennessee, with rain persisting overnight as an upper trough inches its way across the mid state. High pressure to our east will remain the dominant weather feature at the surface for the next several days, so don't expect any air mass change as a result of this system.
latest runs continue to focus widespread precip across the mid- state into the evening ahead of approaching upper upper low.
Afternoon highs will range from near 80 across the Big Country, to the lower to middle 80s along the I-10 corridor.
Western portions of South Central TX have mixed out the frontal inversion, leaving another setup for warmer than normal conditions and more stable weather. Warmer than normal highs will advance back north into Central TX Saturday with high pressure building aloft.
A cold front will bring northeasterly winds to the region around or perhaps before sunrise Monday morning. /issued 347 PM CDT Sun Mar 12 2017/ After today's relatively chilly March day, another cold front will make its way through the region this evening and through the early morning hours on Monday. A high amplitude ridge is forecast to develop across the southwest U. and move east toward the High Plains as a long wave trough across the eastern 1/2 of the country lifts east.
504 PM PDT Sun Mar 12 2017 High pressure aloft and weak offshore flow at the surface will persist through Monday.
720 PM MST Sun Mar 12 2017 A strong high pressure system will persist through the end of the week. Deep layer ridging continues to build into the SW Conus with the objectively analyzed H5 high pressure center just north of the Los Angeles basin this evening. /217 PM MST Sun Mar 12 2017/ Temperatures will warm slightly tomorrow as the ridge builds even stronger which may allow Phoenix to hit its first 90 degree temperature since early November. In fact, the ridge is expected to persist as the NAEFS 500 mb heights ensemble mean stays at or above the 90th percentile through the remainder of the week. This will likely keep the Phoenix area in the low 90s through the work week.
GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: An upper level ridge begins to build up over the Pac-NW tonight to start the process of moving the Arctic cold boundary to the east through the short-term period. The warm front will bring moisture with it. Before the warm front moves in, expect another cold night with single digit lows, expect for the teens in the sw counties.
From 850mb and below a northeasterly flow was in place, and this allowed for a thermal trough to linger below 950mb as weak cold air advection continued. This low level cold pool is noted by a sharp 2. Temperatures were a good 10 to 15 degrees below average today due to this low level cold pool still over the area. This indicates that the mid-level ridge axis is already shifting east of the area.
Northwest flow aloft is becoming more amplified over the Rockies as the upper trough moves east of the Rockies and across the northern and central High Plains. Temperatures will remain above freezing through that time, so any precipitation that does fall is expected to remain as rain. On Monday, cooler temperatures will remain over the eastern sections of the forecast area where highs will only reach the lower 40s. A lee trough will already be deepening along the front range of Colorado by mid day Monday, which will keep the warmer air in place over the west where highs will approach 60.
Most snow accumulations to occur overnight tonight and Monday morning, with less amounts Mon afternoon as temps rise above freezing.
Overall, a northwest flow regime persists with upper level ridging along the west coast. At the surface, the high pressure system continues to weaken and move to the east while an area of low pressure moves out from the lee of the Rockies into the central plains. Have trended highs cooler by a few degrees.
639 PM CDT Sun Mar 12 2017 Today was windier and cooler than originally anticipated yesterday, clouds stuck and are thicker. The cold front is currently located just northwest of the forecast area.
Consequently, temperatures this afternoon warmed into the lower/mid 60s across E TX and SW LA, with mid/upper 50s across Central/SC LA. Have structured the low temperature forecast accordingly, with upper 40s/lower 50s to the south and mid/lower 40s to the north. Dry weather with cool mornings and mild afternoons will prevail, with warmer temperatures and slight rain chances returning late week and into the weekend as the high shifts off to the east. A reinforcing dry cold front is forecast to move through the area Monday, keeping winds offshore through the middle of the week.
1054 PM MDT Sun Mar 12 2017 A strong ridge will continue building over the western US through Monday night. A few showers will remain over the higher peaks north of Interstate 70 and above Steamboat Springs. Dry conditions will continue under a strong ridge which will lead to a good warming trend.
531 PM MDT Sun Mar 12 2017 A strong ridge will continue building over the western US through Monday night. A few showers will remain over the higher peaks north of Interstate 70 and above Steamboat Springs. Dry conditions will continue under a strong ridge which will lead to a good warming trend.
As a low pressure area in the Gulf of Mexico associated with the frontal system begins to progress towards the state on Monday, shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase Monday into Monday night.
Northeast surface winds behind the boundary will turn to the south around sunrise ahead of an approaching Gulf of Mexico low pressure system poised to bring rain to most of the area Monday. The southward movement of this boundary should stall so uncertain to how long the low clouds will remain in area. Winds will turn northwest later in the day behind the cold front.
Still the chance for a wintry mix in the higher terrain of northwest Arkansas. Strong cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma after midnight, sweeping south into the ARKLATX region mid morning Monday.
600 PM MDT Sun Mar 12 2017 Aviation Section Updated Upper ridging continues to ever so slowly move east toward our area.
The 00Z objective analysis indicates the surface reflection of this wave is low pressure over northeast NEb. Due to warmer surface temps across much of eastern NE, if any precip does develop this evening, it may start off as rain before ending as snow, with little if any accumulation.
1059 PM CDT Sun Mar 12 2017 Main focus remains on potential for wintry weather in north central Missouri and several consecutive days of freezing low temperatures. This low pressure will track to northeast Missouri by sunrise Monday. This track will result in temperature profiles less favorable for snowfall until the associated cold front passes through and the atmosphere cools. Scattered showers are expected in advance of a cold front within the warm sector for most areas, beginning by the early/mid evening hours. For areas of far north central into northeast Missouri, a sufficient vertical temperature profile for snow is more probable as the low arrives/moves through.
A cold front will accompany the disturbance and bring increasing surface winds early Monday morning. Some frost and subfreezing temperatures will likely occur with the coldest readings in northern Oklahoma.
High pressure will hold on overnight into Monday for most of the CWA, but the ridge will flatten allowing a frontal system to approach the coast. It will be mild again area wide with temperatures similar to where they were today, though with the increased cloud cover, coastal areas may be a couple of degrees cooler.
Surface analysis this evening places an Alberta Clipper cold front over portions of Nebraska and Kansas. Meanwhile, high pressure is in place across the Mid-South with temperatures as of 8 pm CDT in the 40s at most locations. In addition, short term models indicate a potential for some isolated to perhaps scattered rain showers for Monday afternoon into Monday evening as 700-500 mb layer lapse rates steepen to 7-8 C/km in association with a mid-level trough. Melting of the overnight snow has drawn warmth out the lower atmosphere.
/issued 348 PM CDT Sun Mar 12 2017/ (Tonight and Monday) Low clouds have been slow to clear out today behind a cold front. Should see clearing skies through the day tomorrow, with warmer temperatures, as afternoon highs approach the upper 60s. Upper level ridging to our west will result in predominantly northwest flow aloft for our area through the end of the work week. In the low levels south to southeasterly flow will persist from late Monday night through the weekend.
Some moisture comes into the west late tonight into Monday and spreads eastward along a warm front. There is a slight chance this could produce some light freezing precip again over our central and eastern zones. A weak cold front has pushed as far west as Columbus and will continue to move west overnight. As a ridge start starts to move in, temperatures Monday will begin an upward trend.
Current thinking is the warmer air should push back northward towards sunrise as an upper level disturbance moves through and mixing things out. Temperatures will likely rise fairly quickly, from teens/lower 20s into the lower/mid 40s in less than one hour as the warm front pushes north. While the stationary front draped across central MT has yet to move much, the low clouds that were anticipated to redevelop have not materialized for most of central Montana (with the exception of KHVR). Martin /ISSUED 600 PM MDT Sun Mar 12 2017/ Upper ridging continues to ever so slowly move east toward our area.
810 PM PDT Sun Mar 12 2017 Unseasonably warm weather will continue inland from the coast this week with high pressure aloft. A shallow marine layer will keep coastal areas cooler with periods of low clouds and fog.
Main upper level wave over northwestern SD moves southeast across the area during the evening, reinvigorating larger scale lift around the lower to mid level frontal boundary.
Overall a ridging pattern is expected the next few days but despite that several periods of rain are expected.
Main concerns for the prevailing TAF period focuses on precip trends along and ahead of a cold front dropping south out of KS. Still the chance for a wintry mix in the higher terrain of northwest Arkansas. Strong cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma after midnight, sweeping south into the ARKLATX region mid morning Monday.
The Ozarks will head into this evening a bit warmer after highs rebound a bit this afternoon with readings in the 40s. A cold front will move through the region tonight as the upper level trough spreads east across the region. Temperatures behind the front on Monday will climb slowly into the lower to middle 40s with clouds slow to move out of the region.
Nearing overnight lows North of I-20 with low to mid 40s under still clear skies and just a swipe of cirrus South with just slightly warmer upper 40s. The next cold front is gathering moisture now over E Ok and NW AR with some mosasic radar returns. The cold front is moving quickly into KN now. /issued 400 PM CDT Sun Mar 12 2017/ Clouds have eroded across all but our extreme western counties in east Texas south of I-20 with temperatures running several degrees cooler by comparison to areas in full sunshine. Expect further erosion of clouds over our far western zones over the next few hours with mostly clear conditions initially this evening before clouds gradually return overnight as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
The 19z MSAS surface analysis showed a ridge of high pressure stretched from central Ontario southeast through the eastern Great Lakes. A broad area of low pressure was over the northern/ central Plains. Max temperatures to range from the lower to middle 20s north, middle to upper 20s south.
Will remain in a quiet weather pattern with high pressure in control for much of the TAF period.
Melting of the overnight snow has drawn warmth out the lower atmosphere.
Sharp gradient between a coastal trough and a strong ridge building from the mid Atlantic into the southeast U. winds will begin to decrease rapidly on Monday as the ridge retreats north as the next wave begins to move in from the gulf. Most of pcp was well offshore the lower Ne Fl waters but a resurgence of scattered showers possible along the Ne Fl coast after midnight with the next surge. 4 to 6 foot breakers are expected into Monday, with minor beach erosion possible during the high tide tonight.
A very benign weather pattern for southeast Arizona this week with ridging aloft generally dominating. In fact, by late in the week into the weekend, even warmer temperatures are expected as highs approach 20 degrees above seasonal normals.
Warmer air ahead of this system is expected to help keep the west a bit warmer than the east overnight.
Meanwhile, a deepening trough aloft will approach early Monday morning initiating precipitation by the afternoon hours.
High pressure will be building southward out of Canada into the Mississippi Valley for midweek.
Clouds and cold air advection have kept temps well below normal today with most areas in the low to mid 50s. As the low moves east tonight, rain will begin to spread northward late tonight into Monday morning. The rain will begin to move east of the area late in the afternoon as the cold front moves through. Highs on Monday will warm back into the low to mid 60s inland to mid and upper 60s near the coast. Lows tonight will range from the low 40s inland to low 50s along the coast.
it will be another cold night with lows expected to fall below freezing. Chattanooga Airport, TN 33 48 37 48 / 10 80 60 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 30 46 35 44 / 10 80 70 20 Oak Ridge, TN 31 46 36 46 / 0 80 70 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 24 47 34 43 / 10 70 80 40 NC.