Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1046 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022 A short wave trough currently over southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba will dive south tonight. A pre- frontal trough associated with this system will dip into northwest Missouri mid-late Friday morning, and progress east-southeast through the day into Friday evening. They develop some isolated showers or storms ahead of the trough in northeast Missouri Friday afternoon, and then a more widespread area of convection during late afternoon and early evening stretching from central into northeast Missouri and west central Illinois as the trough moves in. The cold front associated with our storm system finally digs into Missouri and southern Illinois on Saturday.
Cooler temperatures are expected through the weekend. A decaying MCS in northern Mexico looks to merge with strong convection heading south along the Lower Colorado River this evening.
/Updated at 742 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022/ A large broad upper trough covered a majority of the eastern Conus early this evening. Several features were seen riding near the large base of the trough in the latest satellite imagery. The low level convergence does not appear to be excessively strong, except maybe in the southeast sector with the more enhanced winds.
For this evening, expect convection to develop along a cold front in central/eastern Nebraska. A better chance arrives by early/mid afternoon with the approach of an upper trough diving southeastward into the central Missouri Valley, providing large scale ascent and increased deep layer shear. With the upper low still hanging around in the proximity of the CWA, scattered showers will remain possible on Saturday, albeit the highest coverage and amounts are expected to be south and east of the area.
The upper-level pattern across much of the CONUS is starting to flatten as the trough axis continues to propagate of to the northeast off the New England Coast. In response, the subtropical ridge axis is building back westward, and E to ESE flow is soon to follow suit.
An upper-level trough will encroach from the west during this period, crossing the Mississippi River during the day, and pushing into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions overnight.
Rain chances return for Friday as our weather will still be mostly influenced by the longwave trough before an upper level ridge moves in during the short term forecast. Temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with the overnight low in the low 70s. High temperatures for Saturday will be in the low 90s, with morning Lows in the low 70s.
143 AM MDT Fri Aug 19 2022 Northerly flow aloft will be over eastern Montana today with upper low to the east and upper ridge to the west. The upper low moves to the east over the weekend and upper ridge moves into Montana with a return to hot and dry weather.
Wrap around precipitation from the upper level low, off to the east, could still move into the region bringing morning showers to the James River Valley and southeastern North Dakota. A weak upper low is currently located over southeastern Manitoba, near the North Dakota/Minnesota border. To our west, a highly amplified ridge extends well into northern Canada. The upper low will move south today and tonight down the Red River Valley, keeping most of our area in cyclonic flow aloft. Low temperatures will be around normal tonight, generally in the lower 50s to lower 60s but highs will be cooler than normal on Friday with highs mainly in the 70s. The upper low will finally move southeast out of the region by Saturday as the western ridge starts to deamplify and nudge in.
256 AM MDT Fri Aug 19 2022 Upper ridging across the western CONUS continues this morning, with northwest flow over the High Plains. Under the ridging, mostly sunny skies are expected today, with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s.
232 AM MDT Fri Aug 19 2022 Quiet weather pattern as our corner of the world is on the east side of the upper ridge with dry northwesterly flow over the area. Thermal trof to the west will keep easterly wind over the area today and tomorrow holding temperatures at seasonal levels today, a few degrees warmer on Saturday.
On Saturday, models show a slow moving mid/upper level trof over the upper/middle Mississippi valley.
135 AM EDT Fri Aug 19 2022 Next disturbance/closed low dropping into northern MN is aiding in the development of scattered diurnally driven showers/isolated thunderstorms across the area this afternoon. Temperatures are running in the mid 70s to around 80 and with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s it feels pretty summery. Seasonable temperatures but humid conditions are expected through the Saturday with moist southerly flow over the region, ahead of a low pressure dropping south from SW Ontario into northern MN.
This low is very slowly meandering about, but has largely remained stationary overnight. Moisture wrapping around the low has supported some shower activity in Wisconsin and some of these have resulted some light rain across Menominee County. Unsurprisingly, this forecast period starts off unsettled as a low pressure system slowly tracks across MN into IA today into the upcoming weekend. By tonight, a second low pressure system will be dipping south from the Hudson Bay into far northern Ontario, leaving Upper Michigan squeezed in between these two lows. By the latter half of the weekend, high pressure moving in behind the southern low exiting will dry much of the U.
An approaching upper trough and weak surface cold front will lead to some low end potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly north of the CWA this evening, then into the northern half of the CWA tonight.
Aloft, our region remains generally around the base of a broad upper trough pattern through the period with a vigorous Canadian system diving southward over the northern Great Plains tonight into Friday, and into the Upper Midwest by Saturday. Lastly, depending on coverage of thunderstorms, temperatures could be slightly warmer or cooler than whats forecast currently.
Chances for rain will increase over the weekend, as an area of low pressure moves into the area from the west. With high pressure providing a weak wind field, conditions remain favorable for at least some river valley fog to form. This will allow some southeasterly flow to set up, bringing a gradual increase in dewpoints into the lower 60s.
Northwest flow is present aloft, ahead of an upper low dropping into the longwave trough present over the eastern CONUS. High pressure is still nearby, though it has shifted far enough east to allow a weak southerly component of winds to return. The mixing has dropped dewpoints into the upper 50s and low 60s though, so the lower humidity is keeping things feeling quite pleasant. Overnight and into tomorrow, the upper low to the north will push a front towards the area. Tomorrow night and into Saturday, a few showers and storms could linger as the upper low and associated cold front only slowly shift south and east.
High pressure over the mid-Atlantic states has contributed to the stationary nature of a surface front close to the I-20 corridor. But southeasterly low-level flow around the high will ramp up moisture over our area today.
323 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022 Summary: A slow moving stacked low pressure system will cause more showers and thunderstorms today into this evening then it will move southeast tonight into Saturday with lower chances for showers/storms. Water vapor imagery this morning showed the upper low over central Minnesota and it's forecast to move slowly south today then east/southeast Saturday making it to southern Lake Michigan Saturday evening. Highs both today and Saturday will be in the lower to middle seventies.
During the day, an upper trough will move east over the region, and allow for some showers and thunderstorms to develop. Getting into the day Saturday, another Midwest trough will impact the area but looks to stay to our north.
Water vapor imagery this morning shows an upper low working its way south out of Minnesota with ridging set up over the western CONUS. Satellite imagery and surface observations show a cold front in southern Nebraska beginning to make its way into northeastern Kansas. CAMs depict two waves of thunderstorms, one from the lingering precipitation developed in the morning, and another from a trailing line of storms along the cold front. Following the cold front passage, lingering rain showers and a few elevated thunderstorms will be possible as the 850mb front passes through northeastern Kansas Saturday AM.
Saturday will see rain and isolated thunderstorm chances return to the forecast as an upper level trough moves out of the Central Plains traversing into the Mid-West region of the CONUS. From the north, a cold front will be approaching the Arkansas/Missouri border bringing a decent opportunity for showers and isolated thunderstorms across northern Arkansas as saturday progresses into the afternoon and evening timeframe. From the south, the stationary front that has been draped across the Pelican State (Louisiana) begins to retreat northward as a warm front providing decent chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms across southern Arkansas.
Precipitation will wane overnight Friday into Saturday as the upper level low finally begins to move east of the area.
Temperatures range from the low to mid 80s, with Memphis Airport the lone 90 degree mark. Expect a repeat of today's weather on Friday, maybe a degree or two warmer. Saturday will see the return of normal temperatures and an increase in humidity as a warm front lifts north and a cold front approaches from the northwest.
1135 PM MDT Thu Aug 18 2022 For today, focus remains on potential for isolated thunderstorms to develop around 21Z along a cold front. Friday evening the upper low has begun its eastward progression and is centered to our northeast with the cold front now draped to our south. By Saturday, a ridge of high pressure becomes situated over the region, but weak perturbations within it each day keep slight chance to chance for showers and storms in the forecast, mainly for southern and western portions of the CWA.
After this evening we may see a lull in showery activity until mid to late morning on Friday as the main upper level low drops south. The upper level low slowly shifts southeast on Saturday. Otherwise gradual clearing and a north wind will keep temperatures a bit cooler, with highs mainly in the mid to upper 70s.
204 AM EDT Fri Aug 19 2022 A ridge of high pressure will result in warm and dry conditions today.
Satellite imagery shows a fair amount of cumulus developed over the higher terrain and Palmer Divide. Expect conditions to remain mostly dry this afternoon with a low chance for an isolated shower or storm over the high terrain. A weak front will move through the plains tomorrow morning and with a slight dip in temperatures aloft, highs will be a few degrees cooler than the day before. 7" over the higher terrain and around an inch over the plains. Best chances (>50%) will be over the higher terrain and along/south of I-70 in Park County. There is a chance for a few showers/storms to make it off the higher terrain onto the adjacent plains in the later afternoon/early evening hours. The models keep most over the coverage over the higher terrain, but the plains should remain capped.
The Southwest steering flow and later start to convection should allow for Max temps to reach into the lower 90s inland and upper 80s at the beaches as the East Coast sea breeze pushes inland to at least the I-95 corridor through the afternoon hours. Convection peaks during the mid/late afternoon and early evening hours, fading once again after sunset with normal humid overnight lows in the lower/middle 70s inland and upper 70s along the Atlantic coast.
404 AM EDT Fri Aug 19 2022 Upper level low exits tonight with mainly dry weather and very warm temperatures through Saturday.
1156 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022 An amplified mid/upper ridge remains situated over the Central Great Basin area while a large trough encompassed much of the eastern CONUS. Seasonable lows in the low to mid 60s are anticipated across the region tonight. The southward sagging cold front will become a focus for showers and storms especially after 18Z where weak cinh is progged. The mid/upper ridge is progged to remain anchored across the western CONUS while some troughing in the east gradually deamplifies as we move through the week.
Some precipitation will likely be around Friday morning before more activity develops as the upper low moves into central Iowa. A few landspout funnels could form during the updraft phase as the upper low though one negative is the surface boundary is progressing a bit faster than previously progged. The upper low will move across the state on Saturday. The nonsupercell tornado parameter which takes into account 0-3 km CAPE, surface relative vorticity and the lack of deep layer shear, does maximize in the south/southeast quadrant of the upper low. The natural surface and upper level low spinning associated with the low could also promote landspout funnel development as well.
The first part of the day will be a dry period between the exiting surface boundary and the next round thunderstorms associated with the primary cold front. Some of the higher cloud bases could thwart this, as mentioned in the previous AFD, but still worth monitoring.
351 AM EDT Fri Aug 19 2022 High pressure will dominate through the rest of today, allowing for quiet and seasonably warm conditions.
11 (This evening through Friday) A weak cold front is drifting into the area this afternoon with scattered convection well underway. An upper trough will remain over the eastern 1/2 of the country into the weekend. With a lack of ridging aloft and ample moisture in place, scattered to numerous diurnal showers and storms can be expected Saturday.
In the upper levels, there is a large longwave trough across E Conus with the parent low over Maine. This low will move NE into New Brunswick, Canada today while a second low developing over MN sinks SWD toward IA through this evening.
126 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022 Water vapor loop shows developing closed low in northern MN with scattered thunderstorms across northern/central MN to western/central WI. Closed low will track to southern MN on Friday with large scale ascent spreading across the dvn cwa. Lows tonight in the lower 60s and highs on Friday in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
This low is very slowly meandering about, but has largely remained stationary overnight. Moisture wrapping around the low has supported some shower activity in Wisconsin and some of these have resulted some light rain across Menominee County. Seasonable temperatures but humid conditions are expected through the Saturday with moist southerly flow over the region, ahead of a low pressure dropping south from SW Ontario into northern MN.
Friday PM-Saturday: As a low pressure system over the Midwest moves eastward toward the Great Lakes region, a diffuse cold front will push into the region from the northwest.
(Today and tonight) Warmer weather will be the story today as southerly winds return and a low-level thermal ridge to the west expands eastward into the Southern Plains. High temperatures will be around average for mid to late August--ranging from the low to mid 90s deg F.
At the surface, cold front extends from eastern Nebraska into northwest KS. Cold front will slowly sink south today and will be the focus for afternoon/evening storm development.
Otherwise, look for high temperatures to peak in the mid to upper 80s, except areas in northeast AL that see showers develop sooner in the day will peak in the low to mid 80s.
An upper level low is centered over central MN early this morning. This low will track south through the day. The area of showers ongoing over central MN will trend to favor the western side of the low later this morning and then continue to rotate counterclockwise around it into IA this afternoon and evening. Shield of rain developing over central MN will remain on the southwest side of the low, with rain expected to impact STC/AXN/RWF through much of the morning.
Dewpoints will steadily rise overnight reaching the low to mid 60s by early Saturday morning, setting the stage for widespread rainfall later in the day and evening Saturday.
507 AM EDT Fri Aug 19 2022 A broad upper level trough persisted over much of the CONUS east of the Rockies this morning, with a number of smaller circulations embedded in it. It is expected to move southeast to near the IL/WI border by late Saturday, becoming the main portion of the eastern CONUS trough.
Long range guidance suggests that broad ridging aloft will prevail over the Intermountain West, Central/Southern Rockies, and Central/Southern High Plains throughout this period. A weak upper level low. presently trapped beneath the ridge in far northwest Nevada.
1056 AM EDT Fri Aug 19 2022 High pressure will provide dry and fair weather today through tonight.
529 AM EDT Fri Aug 19 2022 High pressure will dominate through the rest of today, allowing for quiet and seasonably warm conditions.
1019 AM EDT Fri Aug 19 2022 Low pressure will exit across the Maritimes today. High pressure from the west will cross the region this weekend.
303 AM MDT Fri Aug 19 2022 For today, focus remains on potential for isolated thunderstorms to develop around 21Z along a cold front. Long range guidance suggests that broad ridging aloft will prevail over the Intermountain West, Central/Southern Rockies, and Central/Southern High Plains throughout this period. A weak upper level low. presently trapped beneath the ridge in far northwest Nevada.
With the exit of the long- lived east coast trough, high pressure will begin to move northward leading to a shift to a southeasterly flow today. Between today and tomorrow, the low level wind flow will become east- southeasterly, therefore impacting the future synoptic weather pattern. On Saturday, the previously mentioned high pressure will further settle into place over Florida. After the past few days of record breaking heat, eastern coast temperatures will be a few degrees cooler, with the opposite occurring in the interior and west coast. Highs will be in the low-to-mid 90s with heat indices reaching 100s.
An upper level low is centered over central MN early this morning. This low will track south through the day. The area of showers ongoing over central MN will trend to favor the western side of the low later this morning and then continue to rotate counterclockwise around it into IA this afternoon and evening. The shield of rain that has been growing overnight will remain on the southwest side of the low and is expected to impact (or continue to impact) AXN, STC, and RWF through much of the morning. Southwesterly winds will turn/calm as the low drops south through tonight before prevailing northeasterly Saturday morning.
A cold front will be moving across the area Today, turning winds out of the northeast with time and providing an impetus for shower and thunderstorms near the boundary, in an otherwise sunny and increasingly hot afternoon out ahead of the front. The various CAMs are showing a general trend for additional convective development more focused directly along the surface cold front boundary in the mid afternoon and being driven south to the Kansas Oklahoma line by the northwest steering flow through mid evening. The front will turn into a warm front and lift back northeast.
Mahale (Today and tonight) Warmer weather will be the story today as southerly winds return and a low-level thermal ridge to the west expands eastward into the Southern Plains. High temperatures will be around average for mid to late August--ranging from the low to mid 90s deg F.
650 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022 (Today and tonight) Warmer weather will be the story today as southerly winds return and a low-level thermal ridge to the west expands eastward into the Southern Plains. High temperatures will be around average for mid to late August--ranging from the low to mid 90s deg F.
1042 AM EDT Fri Aug 19 2022 Low level ridging has lifted north over the past 24-hours, with east to southeast winds now sampled across much of the island chain. The TBW, JAX, and TAE 12Z RAOBS sampled rising heights in the lower troposphere, while there was no change at KKEY. All are mainly upper level features decoupled from the lower troposphere. From synopsis, a high pressure ridge over the western North Atlantic will build westward and shift northward, resulting in freshening east to southeast breezes.
639 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022 Summary: A slow moving stacked low pressure system will cause more showers and thunderstorms today into this evening then it will move southeast tonight into Saturday with lower chances for showers/storms. Water vapor imagery this morning showed the upper low over central Minnesota and it's forecast to move slowly south today then east/southeast Saturday making it to southern Lake Michigan Saturday evening. Highs both today and Saturday will be in the lower to middle seventies.
647 AM EDT Fri Aug 19 2022 Upper level low exits tonight with mainly dry weather and very warm temperatures through Saturday.
| A broad upper level trough persisted over much of the CONUS east of the Rockies this morning, with a number of smaller circulations embedded in it. It is expected to move southeast to near the IL/WI border by late Saturday, becoming the main portion of the eastern CONUS trough.
419 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022 A cold front will be moving across the area Today, turning winds out of the northeast with time and providing an impetus for shower and thunderstorms near the boundary, in an otherwise sunny and increasingly hot afternoon out ahead of the front. The various CAMs are showing a general trend for additional convective development more focused directly along the surface cold front boundary in the mid afternoon and being driven south to the Kansas Oklahoma line by the northwest steering flow through mid evening. The front will turn into a warm front and lift back northeast.
647 AM EDT Fri Aug 19 2022 Weak high pressure across the area will move off to the east. Rain chances will increase over the weekend as low pressure approaches and then moves through the area. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. As a mid level system pushes into the western Great Lakes on Saturday, heights will fall and some energy will eject out ahead of the main trough.
High temperatures for today will reach up into the lower 90s for much of the region, with temps maxing out in the upper 80s along the coast and over portions of inland southeast Georgia. The Southwest steering flow and later start to convection should allow for Max temps to reach into the lower 90s inland and upper 80s at the beaches as the East Coast sea breeze pushes inland to at least the I-95 corridor through the afternoon hours. Convection peaks during the mid/late afternoon and early evening hours, fading once again after sunset with normal humid overnight lows in the lower/middle 70s inland and upper 70s along the Atlantic coast.
Considerable cloud cover over the area associated with the upper level low that has stalled over Sonora MX.
Dry southwest flow returns as large scale high pressure builds over the western U. However, with shorter days already setting in, overnight temperatures will continue to cool into the low to mid 60s in the valleys.
(Today and tomorrow) Issued at 357 AM MDT Fri Aug 19 2022 Key Impact Messages: 1) Cooler temperatures Friday and Saturday with overnight lows in the 50s expected. We are still tracking a backdoor cold front that will move from east to west across the region today that will bring cooler temperatures to much of the area. This front will have little to no moisture associated with it and we can expect a dry day with the exception of an isolated shower or thunderstorms that could develop across the high terrain of the Laramie Range this afternoon. As the high pressure continues to be displaced to the south and east, better moisture may begin to stream into the region on Saturday allowing for some better precipitation chances across much of SE Wyoming for Saturday.
An upper trough and increasing onshore flow will bring cooler temperatures today into Saturday.