Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
642 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 404 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016/ THE WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE NEAR TO SUB FREEZING TEMPS ARE REACHING NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WITH OBS AS FAR EAST AS TUPELO ALREADY NEAR FREEZING. WITH EVERYTHING HINGING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS REACH THE AREA AND WHETHER THERE IS ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO SUPPORT PRECIP. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS IN AND SHIFTS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST. AND MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH AT LEAST NOON.
359 AM MST FRI JAN 22 2016 RIDGE MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES TODAY WITH STEADY WARMING ALOFT. BUT WILL STILL BE 10-15 DEGREES WARMER OVER MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND PLAINS AREAS WITHOUT SNOW COVER. AND 5-10 DEGREES WARMER IN THE MORE STAGNANT AREAS. WARMER AREAS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE CWA ON SATURDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
/ISSUED 245 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016/ AS A MASSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WREAKS HAVOC OVER THE EASTERN U. WE WILL GET TO EXPERIENCE THE QUIET OF RIDGING BUILDING IN OVER THE CENTRAL U. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE OTHER THAN BUMPED OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TOMORROW NIGHT UP A DEGREE OR TWO AS MULTIPLE MODELS CAME IN WARMER.
COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG WINDS MIX DOWN WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE EVENING AS COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE FURTHER WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE SERVING TO WARM THE FOOTHILLS TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 40S. WHILE CREATING NEAR BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS NEAR THE PEAKS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND THE HIGHER WINDS. BUT IT WILL GRADUALLY FILL BACK IN BY THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS AND EVENING AS THE LOW TRACKS EAST. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 41 29 36 24 / 100 100 30 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 38 26 33 19 / 100 100 60 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 37 25 32 18 / 100 100 60 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 34 23 30 14 / 100 100 90 20 NC.
A TROUGH WILL PASS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY SMALL POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE BORDERLAND ZONES SATURDAY AS MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A VORT MAX WITH SFC/850HPA REFLECTION CLOSED LOW DROPS OUT OF MANITOBA AND INTO NW MINNESOTA. AT THIS TIME THE MAIN PRECIPITATION AXIS SATURDAY IS EXPECTED ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHICH IS ANALYZED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT MASSIVE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT EASTERN PAC UPPER TROUGH. WAA/HEIGHT RISES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPS INTO MUCH OF THE REGION. ESP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WHERE MIXING TO THE SFC WILL BE ATTAINED. WAA PROCESS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A DIRTY RIDGE WITH BOUTS OF THICK CIRRUS AND SOME MID CLOUD EXPECTED. PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THIS RIDGE WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF DECENT DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE BH/S WITH THE LEE SIDE FOOTHILLS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MILD TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A MUCH WARMER DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS BETTER MIXING IS ATTAINED. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT.
PASSING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND MILD WEATHER WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AS THE RIDGE EXITS THE REGION A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
DRY FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER RIDGE TILTS POSITIVELY INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND FLATTENS TONIGHT. ENERGY STREAMS OVER THE TOP OF THE MEAN ROCKIES RIDGE TONIGHT BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER TODAY WITH INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SLOWLY DECREASING SNOW FIELD.
922 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016 HIGH PRESSURE COVERED THE FORECAST AREA AT 15Z. FLURRIES WERE STILL AFFECTING MANY LOCATIONS AS WELL THANKS TO AN UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WI. THE TROF SHOULD MOVE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON ENDING THE FLURRIES. A TROUGH WILL PASS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY SMALL POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE BORDERLAND ZONES SATURDAY AS MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A VORT MAX WITH SFC/850HPA REFLECTION CLOSED LOW DROPS OUT OF MANITOBA AND INTO NW MINNESOTA. AT THIS TIME THE MAIN PRECIPITATION AXIS SATURDAY IS EXPECTED ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHICH IS ANALYZED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
934 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY WILL BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. THE LOW WILL DEPART TO THE EAST COAST BY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE WINDS WILL STILL BE QUITE GUSTY AND WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE THE ALREADY COLD TEMPS FEEL LIKE THE LOW TO MID TEENS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. THE LOW MOVES QUICKLY AWAY AND SNOWFALL WILL QUICKLY DROP OFF IN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED TO TREND LOWS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS. THIS WEEKEND CAN BE CHARACTERIZED AS DRY AND COLD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL LOOKING VERY DRY SO CENTRAL INDIANA LOOKING AT COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT CLEAR SKIES.
A WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE ROCKIES SLOWLY BUILDING EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT PLAINS. WAA/RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE RIDGE AXIS DEVELOPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER RIDGE PASSES OVER THE ON SATURDAY AS WARMER AIRMASS SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH WELL TO THE EAST RAISING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S OVER MOST LOCATIONS. RIDGE AXIS PUSHES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE ROCKIES AND COOL FRONT SETTLES THROUGH THE AREA.
535 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016 /12Z TAFS/ AREA AIRPORTS WILL REMAIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS MORNING. STRONG CAA WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NW WINDS 15-20 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL STRATOCU FIELD OVER OK AND NORTH CENTRAL TX IS BEING MAINTAINED BY GOOD COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET. THE BACK EDGE WILL PROBABLY TAKE ITS TIME RECEDING EASTWARD AS RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDS SLOWLY OVER THE AREA. OUR WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST ON SATURDAY AS RIDGING INTENSIFIES AND SURFACE WINDS SWING AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY AFTERNOON.
RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW AS TEMPERATURES HOVER JUST ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING. EXPECT SKC CONDITIONS TO TAKE CONTROL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW QUICKLY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. IT IS JUST TOO WARM TO KEEP ANY THING BUT A SLUSH WITH AIR TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AS WELL. THE UPPER LOW IS SEEN WELL ON WATER VAPOR OVER NE LA AND MOVING EAST AS A CLOSED LOW.
WILL THEREFORE INCREASE THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. LOOKOUT MOUNTAIN RIDGE IS HOVERING JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND THERE COULD BE SOME ZR MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE RIDGE AND WILL NEED TO ADD SOME LIGHT ICING.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSED OVER THE REGION YDAY. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE EAST AS IT MOVES OVER ERN OREGON AND SW IDAHO SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT NIGHT.
High pressure will reside over most of the day on Saturday however upper level ridging should help temperatures rebound into the upper 20s to mid 30s.
SHORT TERM UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE AT THE MOMENT BUT FOCUS IS ON SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS LATE TODAY AND APPROACHING UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY. INTERESTING AS WELL THAT AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION HAS BEEN RIDING INTERFACE BETWEEN CANADIAN PRAIRIE UPPER LOW AND STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. GREATER CHALLENGES EXIST IN OUTER FORECAST PERIODS AS STRONGER UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS EJECTS MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS INTO CENTRAL U.
SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight) Trof currently over srn Plains will approach the region tonight. Ongoing SHRA over KS/OK/swrn MO will continue to spread nwd and gradually move ewd as the main trof pushes ewd. Will be difficult to pin down cooler areas due to precip and warmer areas due to cloud cover. This shud continue overnight as upper ridging builds into the area. PoPs will increase Sat and Sun as the upper low, currently about to make landfall over the wrn U. Have not gone too high with PoPs yet as with a lack of a jet to kick the low into the Plains, wud not be surprised to see this system delayed slightly with future cycles.
TONIGHT STABLE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WITH AN EXCELLENT LAKE AGGREGATE SIGNATURE IN MSAS ANALYSIS DATA IS LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT SWEPT THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN PRIOR TO 12Z. THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR LOWS TO DROP TO THE FREEZING MARK IN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE THUMB. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TO LOW TO ISSUE ANY FREEZING WARNINGS. THIS FEATURE WILL AMPLIFY RIDGING OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTH, PROVIDING ANOTHER DAY OF TRANQUIL BUT COOL WEATHER. SOLID PUSH OF MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY MODEST LLJ NOSING NOSING INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA PER 12Z ECMWF.
SHORT TERM UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE AT THE MOMENT BUT FOCUS IS ON SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS LATE TODAY AND APPROACHING UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY. INTERESTING AS WELL THAT AREA OF PERSISTANT CONVECTION HAS BEEN RIDING INTERFACE BETWEEN CANADIAN PRAIRIE UPPER LOW AND STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. GREATER CHALLENGES EXIST IN OUTER FORECAST PERIODS AS STRONGER UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS EJECTS MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS INTO CENTRAL U.
333 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND BE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE NATION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH UPPER RIDGING HAS KEPT CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING THUS FAR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WATERS EXTENDING INLAND THROUGH THE FAR WESTERN CONUS.
MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE IN THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND, AND IN THE FAVORED CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE LOWER APALACHICOLA RIVER BASIN DUE TO THE CONVEX COASTLINE.
128 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND BRING FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER.
A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGH. CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE ALONG WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF A LARGE AND UNUSUALLY COOL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CURRENT TEMPERATURES AT 9 AM ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. IN THESE LOCATIONS SOME HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S LOOK REASONABLE.
431 PM MDT WED MAY 13 2015 THE REGION WILL TRANSITION INTO A SHORT STABLE PERIOD THIS EVENING AS TRANSITIONAL HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS EAST THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD START OUT RATHER DRY MOST ARAS ON THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIPITATION YET THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS MAIN MOISTURE SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW.
601 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND BE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE NATION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
1243 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SW SOUTH DAKOTA WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY. THESE WINDS WILL DRAW WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S. WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 50S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A GOOD FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE ALONG WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF A LARGE AND UNUSUALLY COOL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CURRENT TEMPERATURES AT 9 AM ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. IN THESE LOCATIONS SOME HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S LOOK REASONABLE.
INITIALLY THE AIRMASS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE DRY AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER TROUGH PATTERN OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A PIECE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
157 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
AT 12Z WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO/EXTREME WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. EAST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THE MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY EARLIER THIS MORNING WAS INDICATING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND HIGHS SHOULD MIX OUT IN THE LOW 80S.
127 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT.
AS OF LATE AFTERNOON THE WARM FRONT REMAINED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR IN ND AND THE HIGHWAY 10 CORRIDOR IN MN. AT THE SFC IT APPEARS A WEAK LOW SETS UP OVER WESTERN SD WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH UP THRU KBIS INTO NORTHEAST ND.
349 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015 WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE NORTHLAND IS ACCOMPANIED BY RATHER STRONG MESOSCALE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE HIGHLY ORGANIZED PRECIP BAND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO MORE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL PERSIST AS A RATHER STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROF TO EJECT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TOMORROW.
FORECAST STILL ON TRACK FOR CLEARING OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL TROF NOW OVER CENTRAL COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST AND NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TROF AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MIDNIGHT WITH DECREASING TREND OF SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS NOW OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS JUST AHEAD OF CYCLONE AND CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WHICH HAS SHIFTED INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT WILL SHIFT OVER COLORADO LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OFF CALIFORNIA COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON THURSDAY WITH MORE HEATING.
RAIN WILL BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER AT TIMES EARLY TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z THURSDAY. BY 12Z THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. SUBSIDENCE WILL BE DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS AN SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM THE WEST.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE WEST OF INTERSTATE 45 THIS AFTERNOON AS AN APPROACHING TROUGH PUSHES A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX INTO THE REGION. AND WITH SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DRAWING IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AS AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BUILD THIS AFTERNOON AS INCREASING FORCING FROM THE LEADING EDGE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH REACHES THE REGION.
241 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINING WITHIN A FADING LOWER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS HAS LED TO A PERSISTENCE IN MVFR-VFR STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. THIS WILL LEAD TO QUIET HIGH PRESSURE CONDITIONS. TODAY AND TONIGHT REMAINING SPRINKLES WITHIN EXITING UPPER TROUGH WILL FADE EARLY THIS MORNING AS SAID FEATURE SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING. EXPECT AREAS OF FROST OVER THE THUMB FOR SURE WHERE LOCAL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S.
251 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA AS THE RAIN SHIELD THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS AROUND 1 INCH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. MOST OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS DO SHOW A NARROW CAPE AXIS INVOF DRYLINE WHICH WOULD PROMOTE THIS ACTIVITY.
155 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NE TO THE UPPER 60S SW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE FA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SETUP IS BORDERLINE FROST ADVISORY ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE FA HOWEVER BELIEVE THAT MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN 36.
GUSTY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEVADA TOMORROW AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPREADS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY.
High pressure will move across the Great Lakes this period, allowing for dry conditions here. The flow will become more southeasterly Thursday, as an inverted trough crosses the region. There should be a few more clouds Thursday compared to today, as that trough serves as a focus for development, but not expecting any precipitation from it.
1232 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. IT WILL BE A WARMER DAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM AROUND 4 DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY. LOCALES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR INTO NORTHWEST IOWA COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 TENTHS OF PRECIPITATION BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH MODEL PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. AND IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
500 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT. STRATOCU IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS BROAD MID AND UPPER TROUGHING SHIFTS EAST. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND VEERING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING SUNSHINE AND REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY.
342 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE AND THE FRONT IS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THESE WAVE WILL BRING THE SUPPORT TO LIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
IMPACTS OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE PUSHING OUT OF THE AREA.
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED DAYTIME HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE LOWER LEVELS.
BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND HERE DON'T MOISTEN UP THE LOWER LEVELS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING. WINDS AROUND 10 MPH ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. RIDGE. RIDGING SHOULD REDUCE RAIN CHANCES BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER RH STILL WILL LIKELY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF BOUNDARIES SETTING UP TO PROVIDE A FOCUS.
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S. SIMILAR SETUP TOMORROW WITH MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BUILDS E/SE. WHICH COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL FL.
143 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 DRY WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PRECIP WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD AS UPPER TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO BY AFTERNOON. PRECIP ENDS FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE STATE 00Z-03Z. MAX TEMPS TODAY COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES ALL AREAS WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP KEEPING READINGS SUPPRESSED. EXPECT RATHER COOL MIN TEMPS WITH MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS DROPPING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO EACH DAY FROM A LARGE SCALE WEST COAST TROUGH.
WITH A SHARP RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
355 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY BUILDING IN FROM NORTH AND CENTER PROGGED TO PUSH EAST OF CLEVELAND OH THIS EVENING. RESULTING IN A SWITCH FROM NW TO NE WINDS AS INVERTED RIDGING BEGINS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AS UPPER RIDGE DAMPENS AND AXIS PUSHES EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MONTH OF MAY CONTINUES TO BE RAINFALL FREE WHICH IS QUITE A HISTORICAL FEAT! THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS DOWN TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STATIONED IN THE GULF. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AND AHEAD OF THAT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE RETURN TO THE AREA.
326 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
MOISTURE IS ROTATING AROUND THIS DRY POCKET AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE US IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FORCING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO EXTEND OVER FLORIDA FOR THE REMINDER OF THE WEEK. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES THE HIGH BECOMES WEAKER FOR THE WEEKEND AND THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES REACH AVERAGE VALUES.
1221 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD RESULTED IN SUNNY SKIES OVER THE STATE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY. HAVE THEREFORE FOLLOWED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE NUMBERS.
THIS COOLER AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 40S AND EVEN LOWER 40S IN THE EASTERN DEEPER VALLEYS. IN SOME OF THE RIDGES. RIDGING WILL SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
A few storms have popped up in the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern Permian Basin along a weak dryline.
242 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 UPDATE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND BRING FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER.
WV IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS AN ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE ALONG WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF A LARGE AND UNUSUALLY COOL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CURRENT TEMPERATURES AT 9 AM ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. IN THESE LOCATIONS SOME HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S LOOK REASONABLE.
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN THURSDAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA.
OTHERWISE CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS TEXAS. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH DIGGING DEEP INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
249 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 DRY WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
THE WARM FRONT IS STILL LOOMING TO OUR SOUTH AND NEW GUIDANCE HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME TWEAKS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AS THE WARM FRONT WILL ONLY BE NEARING I-20 DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SOLID MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH LIFTING N TOWARD THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AS RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO MIDWESTERN STATES. LATEST WPC QPF IS LOADED INTO OUR GRIDS WITH A FEW TWEAKS FOR THE REMAINING AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR CWA WITH LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NNE LATE TODAY.