Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
506 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE IN THE NEAR-TERM. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES TODAY AND CAUSE AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO. THE VERY SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW PRESSURE'S ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS TROUGH PASSAGE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING.
1247 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MODEL DATA SUGGEST A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS ON TAP AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE N RRV/DEVILS LAKE BASIN BY MID DAY. WITH A TONGUE OF +23C 850 MB TEMPS OVER THIS AREA BY 18Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NOW WEST OF THE RRV. HIGHS WILL AROUND 30 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON TUE. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR A TUE AFTN/EVE PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH PW/S RISE TO OVER AN INCH AND THERE SHOULD BE DECENT DPVA WITH THE APPROACHING H5 TROF. UPR TROF DIGS IN WITH TEMPS FALLING TO BLW NORMAL LVLS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
Water Vapor imagery and GOES High Density Winds show the upper low west of Baja California. a ridge in the Southern Intermountain West.
There are two concerns in the short term - areas of fog over south-central KY this morning, and precip chances associated with a cold front late Monday afternoon. High temps will reach the lower to mid 70s, generally between MET and MAV guidance.
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. /ISSUED 421 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015/ THE OVERALL MESSAGE OF THIS FORECAST REMAINS DRY AND WARM WITH A FEW COLD FRONTS MIXED IN. 93 IN 1962 IN TYPICAL PANHANDLE FASHION, HOT ONE DAY THEN FAIRLY PLEASANT THE NEXT, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY TO KNOCK US DOWN TOWARDS NORMAL HIGH TEMPSS OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW THEM.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AFTER 2 AM. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY. WENT WITH THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE LOWS.
445 AM PDT SUN OCT 11 2015 UPDATE AVIATION SECTION HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER COLORADO TODAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS BEHIND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. IT WILL BRING NORTHERLY BREEZES AND COOLER AIR TO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN.
High pressure will maintain warm and dry weather across the region for the next several days. Highs today are expected to be near yesterday's highs or a couple of degrees cooler.
1016 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015 AVIATION SECTIONS UPDATED HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MODEL DATA SUGGEST A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE SINKING AIR MOTION AND THUS DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS MORE NORTHERLY ACROSS ALABAMA. SO DO NOT EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO MAKE MORE THAN A COUPE OF ROWS OF COUNTIES INTO EAST ALABAMA. 58 MONDAY TEMPS ARE GOING TO BOUNCE BACK NICELY AS WESTERLY WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS BRING IN SOME WARMER TEMPERATURE ADVECTION.
HIGH WIND WARNING ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH 6PM THIS EVENING TO COVER HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WINDS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 6500 FEET MSL BY THIS EVENING AS PRECIPITATION ENDS WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE HIGHER RIDGES AND PEAKS. SKIES CLEAR WITH TAPERING WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER WESTERN MONTANA. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COOLER BUT REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
1025 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015 DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO REGION UNTIL COLD FRONTAL ENCROACHMENT ON MONDAY NIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE HAMPERED TONIGHT BY A GENERALLY WARMER COLUMN/CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING NRN PLAINS LOW PRES. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE DIGGING TOWARDS THE JAMES BAY IS PROJECTED TO CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
A tightening surface pressure gradient will bring breezy to gusty winds today as a strong upper level low moves across the U. This will mean sunny skies and warmer temperatures for the region with a gusty southwesterly winds bring temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s to the Ozarks for today. The upper low across the northern U. will drag a dry cold front through the area tonight. This will bring a cooler but still dry airmass into the region. A persistent northwesterly upper level flow will be in control of the region's weather through the week as the aforementioned upper low over the Great Lakes lifts through New England and off to the northeast. Several reinforcing rounds of cool and dry Canadian high pressure will keep the region seasonable for the coming work week.
708 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015 H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO NRN ALBERTA IN CANADA. LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. BROAD NWRLY FLOW EXTENDED EAST OF THE RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. RIDGING ALOFT. H85 TEMPS WILL SURGE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S CELSIUS BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER MIN TEMPS IN THE EAST WHERE MID 50S ARE FORECAST. THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS RIDGING TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND PROGRESSIVE NW FLOW OVER THE PLAINS USHERS PERIODIC FRONTS THROUGH THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON TUE. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR A TUE AFTN/EVE PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH PW/S RISE TO OVER AN INCH AND THERE SHOULD BE DECENT DPVA WITH THE APPROACHING H5 TROF. UPR TROF DIGS IN WITH TEMPS FALLING TO BLW NORMAL LVLS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE AREA WATERS AND THE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT.
652 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015 /12Z TAFS/ NO CONCERNS AS VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNDERNEATH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON COLUMBUS DAY PRIOR TO A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER NORTH TEXAS AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY.
1016 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
1150 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING.
AXIS OF TROUGH ALOFT WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BIG BEND/ EASTERN GULF AND WATER VAPOR SHOWS MORE EXTENSIVE DRYING WITH THIS FEATURE. MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE GREATER IN THE SOUTH HALF AND WITH TROUGH BRINGING COOLER TEMPS ALOFT.
1000 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST JUST OFF OF THE COAST THROUGH MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. HAVE KEPT WITH BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-70 WHERE THERE WILL BE THE BEST COMBINATION OF ASCENT FROM PASSING TROUGH TO THE NORTH WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. A SQUALL LINE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. THERE IS A 700 TO 500 MB WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA TO OTTUMWA IOWA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONCERN ON HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THERE WILL BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.
ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER KEYS THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE EMBEDDED IN A TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE INTERIOR AREAS ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS WILL RADIATE TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/ UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ERN OKLA EXTENDS WWD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO SRN NM.
150+M HEIGHT FALLS FORECAST OVER SOUTHERN MAN AND ONTARIO FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG MT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow under upper-lvl ridging. The persistent ridge over the Southern Plains will remain nearly stationary thru the end of the week. Medium range models diverge over the weekend as the ECMWF shifts the center of the ridge to the Four Corners region in response to a deepening trough in the Eastern US. The GFS has the ridge further east with NE flow aloft. Further in the extended the ECMWF has the ridge further west into the Desert SW whereas the GFS is a little stronger and further east with the ridge. the main difference would be that the ECMWF would be a little "cooler".
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH NOTABLY WARMER/HOTTER TEMPERATURES ON TAP THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM: (THROUGH WEDNESDAY) OPPRESSIVELY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS TODAY/TONIGHT. SINCE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST, ODDS ARE GOOD THAT THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MO/IL ON WED/WED NIGHT AND BRING RELIEF FROM THE RECENT HEAT/HUMIDITY FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FL PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. THE LARGE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE ACROSS THE WESTERN U. WHILE A MEAN LAYER TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THIS WEEK RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. WINDS WILL VEER AND BECOME MORE SOUTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SE U.
314 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. THIS HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT. AND A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 5H RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE LITTLE FOR THE NEAR TERM. AND THIS IN TURN WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE EVER SO SLIGHTLY BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND BASE OF LARGE UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WILL BE EXITING THE AREA AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD WEDNESDAY EVENING.
145 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
The persistent ridge over the Southern Plains will remain nearly stationary thru the end of the week. Medium range models diverge over the weekend as the ECMWF shifts the center of the ridge to the Four Corners region in response to a deepening trough in the Eastern US. The GFS has the ridge further east with NE flow aloft. Further in the extended the ECMWF has the ridge further west into the Desert SW whereas the GFS is a little stronger and further east with the ridge. the main difference would be that the ECMWF would be a little "cooler".
/ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/ UPPER RIDGE HAS A STRONGHOLD ON MUCH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH HEAT INDICIES PROMPTING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MID STATE UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. LOOKS LIKE A VORTICITY MAX (SHORT WAVE) WORKING DOWN FRONT SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE.
/ISSUED 1053 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/ WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SFC ACROSS THE N GULF. WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX. SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPTS BUT TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER WILL YIELD ABOUT THE SAME RANGE.
213 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A MATURE MID LATITUDE CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. A COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING WESTERN MINNESOTA. MORESO H700 THERMAL RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVERHEAD. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
Expect low temps in the low to mid 70s with some patchy fog/haze developing after midnight as it has done the past few mornings. A cold front will approach the area Wed afternoon causing more convection to fire. Storms should persist through the evening before diminishing by late evening with the cold front passage. Highs for Wed should range through the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat index values in the lower 100s mainly west of I-65.
A TOUGH FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH POPS WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT. THE NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST GUSTS. PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH FULL SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS HAS ALSO TEMPERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AND WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SOME MID 70S. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND REMAIN PRONOUNCED WITH A BETTER DEFINED FEATURE ON THE WAY IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING WESTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA WILL BRING WARMER DAYS.
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER INDIANA INTO TONIGHT. BUT THEN BE SWEPT EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
113 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AROUND 6000 FEET AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 10 KNOTS BY ABOUT 15-16Z WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SE MICHIGAN FIRMLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING AS THIS FEATURE PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION. AS DEWPOINTS CREEP UP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.
259 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015 A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALSO TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA BY MID-WEEK.
345 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015 COLD FRONT MAKING STEADY SOUTHEAST PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE WITH NW WINDS AND COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR NOT FAR AWAY. MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WELL NORTH WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN TROPICAL PLUME OVER AZ/NM. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MINIMAL CIN REMAINING. HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES COOLER WITH APPARENT TEMPS 15-20 DEGREES COLDER SHOULD BE THE RULE ON NORTHEAST WINDS. SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH AND EAST, AS RECENT RUNS FROM THE NAM SHOW STRONGER SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THEREFORE MOST PRECIP FALLING OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THOUGH IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE AREA OF LIFT WHILE A WEAK INCOMING TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD.
237 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015 HOT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS AREAWIDE.
Mid levels are progged to be warmer and overall column instability is not expected to be as strong as the past couple of days. The sfc front will drop south into the area Wed, increasingly losing it's convective punch underneath upper level ridging.
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING WESTWARD WILL HELP DRAW MONSOON MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING REDEVELOPMENT AS THE COLD FRONT /CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/ MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER GIVEN THE CLOUDS/PRECIP AND EVENTUAL COLD FRONT.
145 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
338 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
Similar 850mb temperatures in comparison to yesterday with much less cloud cover will yield highs in the low to mid 90s. Relief from the heat however, will be on the way this evening in the form of a cold front. This morning, an upper level low and associated upper trough is moving through northern Montana. This upper trough will swing into the northern Plains today forcing the cold front into northwestern Missouri around 00Z. Thunderstorms will develop across the area this evening as the cold front begins to move through the area.
A COLD FRONT WILL REACH HE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER AS THE EVENING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE UPSLOPE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND CONVECTION ROLLS OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN REGIONS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO9 THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLES AND FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL AGREEMENT WILL PUSH BACK AND LOWER POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BRINGS GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S MAKE CONDITIONS MORE COMFORTABLE THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST SK WITH COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL NE. MCS IS PUSHING EAST OF CWA AS UPPER LOW SPINS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT AND 70KT JET STREAK PUSHES DRY SLOT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
/ISSUED 735 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/ MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 20 LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHIFT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ALOFT ASSOCIATED TO THIS BROAD RIDGE IN PLACE. BROAD UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS VEERS WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL RESULT ON AN INCREASE OF SAHARA DUST ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND MAKING IT HAZE IN THE EARLY MORNING HRS.
234 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015 Another hot and humid day is underway this afternoon, with 2 PM temperatures in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices between 100 and 105. Right now, it appears that the highest readings will be confined to far south central Missouri, and will extend the Heat Warning for this area for one more day.
MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH REGION LYING IN AIRMASS BEHIND COLD FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE TO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE OLD COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
1110 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION ONLY SIGNIFICANT UPDATE THIS MORNING IS TO DECREASE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA BASED UPON CURRENT TRENDS AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WITH IT. HOWEVER, THERE MAY STILL BE SOME LAG BETWEEN THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE LOWERING OF POTENTIAL FLOODING.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
129 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
/ISSUED 1102 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/ A 595DM UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPS ARE ALREADY INN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A FEW POP UP THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER WHERE THE RIDGING IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION CURRENTLY. FORECAST HIGHS WILL REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S ON TUESDAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW AND MIDDLE 70S.
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT APPEARS THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR NORTH THEN NORTHWEST SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES ON THE VERY LOW SIDE.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH WITH THIN CIRRUS OTHERWISE SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015 HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NE OK BY WED AFTERNOON. OVERALL WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE BENEATH UPPER HIGH CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION.
336 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015 WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SFC ACROSS THE N GULF. WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX. THE RIDGE ALOFT EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN A BIT OVER OUR REGION AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A LONGWAVE TROF DIGS SOUTH OVER THE EAST COAST. WITH THE DEWPTS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. NOT MUCH IF ANY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RETROGRADING WESTWARD AS THE LONG WAVE TROF BROADENS OVER THE C AND E U. DML WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY DROPPING SOUTH INTO OUR EASTERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH SUNRISE. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER OKLAHOMA WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN LATELY. WITH 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. A GOOD COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED WED AS COOLER AIR FUNNELS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SE SURFACE FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS SRN AND SE CO WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.
338 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015 CLOUD COVER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND VEERING OF SURFACE WINDS TO SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE PUTTING SOME CLAMPS ON THE PROSPECT OF STORM REDEVELOPMENT BEFORE ALL SUPPORT MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA. GOOD HEATING WILL BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WEDNESDAY BUT THE AIR WILL BE DRY.
/ISSUED 947 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/ UPPER-RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO MAINTAIN HOT CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO APPROACH AROUND 100 DEGREES.
149 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015 HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS.
Ohio Valley remains under weak NW flow on the periphery of the hot upper ridge, currently centered over the southern Plains.
MAIN CHANGE TO HEADLINES WILL BE TO EXTEND THE HIGH WIND WARNING WEST SEVERAL MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING AS THE H850 WINDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH 04Z. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AND DRYER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS THE JET STREAM SHIFTS SOUTH AGAIN AND SEVERAL FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVES PROPAGATE THROUGH. DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE EAST TODAY.
THEREFORE RAISED DEWPOINTS A BIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE GRIDS AND KEPT THEM IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
Strong upper level low currently over southern Saskatchewan will continue to eject eastward through the day. fx 18Z TAFS: Building ridge will deliver VFR conditions and generally clear skies to all forecast sites through late Wednesday morning.