Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
540 PM MDT Thu Aug 6 2020 Satellite imagery once again shows scattered cumulus favoring the high terrain. Southwest flow continues over the region ahead of a large trough near the west CONUS coast. This continues to push our former high pressure south as the system approaches. As we move into tomorrow, the northern portion of west coast trough will lift to the northeast and allow the large scale gradient to loosen slightly. Outside of some very limited pop and drop convection over the high terrain, hot and dry conditions will remain through the short term. A closed low will remain just off the California coast while a Pacific Northwest trough, well to our north, will flatten the ridge that has remained overhead.
The high res models have scattered activity mainly west of Billings through the early evening. Temperatures will be a little cooler, with highs back into the 80s. With the well mixed conditions, humidity will be back in the lower 20s with areas northwest of Billings seeing the upper teens.
Light winds and clear/clearing skies should allow for good radiational cooling conditions overnight, with afternoon dew points in the low-mid 50s a good indication of our low temperature potential overnight. Ratzer 247 PM CDT Pleasant summer weather with comfortably low humidity will continue through Friday night and then we'll step back into a warmer and more humid pattern. Highs Friday will top out primarily in the lower 80s inland, with a few spots of 84 degrees, and upper 70s lakeside due to the lake breeze. Castro 307 PM CDT The warm and humid weather makes its return to the local area this weekend as the upper level ridge moves overhead.
519 PM MDT Thu Aug 6 2020 Upper ridging has moved across the central CONUS, with a trough now pushing onshore the Pac NW coast. Deep southerly low level flow has persisted across the region, ahead of broad low pressure across Montana to Wyoming. Warmer temperatures are expected, with highs in the upper 80s to around 100. A cold front is progged to push across the CWA Friday night as embedded waves within southwest flow aloft push across the CWA.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande Valley tonight into early Fri morning as the 500mb subtropical ridge across northwest Texas continues to provide subsidence across deep south Texas.
Upper level ridging extending across Texas into western Louisiana will keep PoPs below climatological normals tomorrow although isolated convection will be possible during max heating within the best moisture which looks to be along the Sabine river. Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows ridging building acrs the Rio Grande Valley into TX, with a lingering trough/shear axis acrs just east of the lower MS Valley. Ridging aloft will build in from the west tonight, while a wedge of drier air in the mid levels acrs TN/N MS spreads southwestward into the region. Meanwhile, whatever is left of the diffuse frontal boundary that has been over the region the past several days will begin to lift north as it gradually dissipates, with onshore flow bcmg established as the Bermuda high ridges into the Gulf of Mexico.
Weak high pressure will rebuild into the region tonight and early Friday for drier conditions.
319 PM MDT Thu Aug 6 2020 Summary: Scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon across the High Plains of Southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle.
/22/ Tonight and Friday: The persistent mid level ridge will begin to weaken a bit moving forward as ridging becomes dominant over TX into the northern Gulf of Mexico. The main impact of the ridging will be to warm the column which will continue to suppress convection and allow for slightly warmer temperatures Friday. /GG/ This weekend: Hot and somewhat drier conditions will continue into the weekend as mid/upper ridging over both the Plains and the northern Atlantic builds into the area slightly.
836 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible in and near the ridges both today and Friday afternoon, with mainly dry weather elsewhere. Showers/storms will progress eastward out of the area a bit faster on Friday as upper-level steering becomes more orthogonal to the boundary and the upper-level trough lifts off to the northeast.
Tonight, the warm front currently near the SD/NEB border into western Iowa will lift north.
With modest support from s/wv trough entering central plains overnight (helping induce 40+KT low level jet) activity over the panhandles has at least a shot at making into the body of Oklahoma. Temperatures will be somewhat dependent on the extent/duration of cloud cover and rain, but it looks like much of the fa should be warmer Friday afternoon with highs generally at or a little bit above normal for this time of year.
In the near term will be watching the evolution of a small cluster of convection over far south central KS into northeast OK near and northeast of a sfc warm front. Can't rule out some additional Friday afternoon activity (similar to today) as the effective warm front lifts northeast into our cwfa.
The upper air pattern over the past 24 hours has begun to amplify across the Rockies with a ridge building around the northern periphery of the semi-permanent anticyclone over the western TX region. Into the weekend, heights continue to rise as the upper ridge builds across the area.
Satellite imagery once again shows scattered cumulus favoring the high terrain. Southwest flow continues over the region ahead of a large trough near the west CONUS coast. This continues to push our former high pressure south as the system approaches. As we move into tomorrow, the northern portion of west coast trough will lift to the northeast and allow the large scale gradient to loosen slightly. Outside of some very limited pop and drop convection over the high terrain, hot and dry conditions will remain through the short term. A closed low will remain just off the California coast while a Pacific Northwest trough, well to our north, will flatten the ridge that has remained overhead.
902 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 Increasing moisture along with an upper level trough will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and evening. Friday and Friday night: Upper level trough axis will remain from the west, keeping the region within a southwest flow aloft. High temperatures should be around 90 or in the lower 90s, kept down by cloud cover and afternoon precipitation.
With what little activity we did see pop up along the various bound- ary collisions so far this afternoon, it does appear that the upper ridge is becoming the more prominent factor with our pattern. On Friday, SE TX will lie on the periphery of an upper level ridge centered over West Texas. Convective temperatures will remain around 94 degrees so a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible but think most areas will probably remain dry as subsidence from the ridge will probably be the dominant weather feature.
Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows ridging building acrs the Rio Grande Valley into TX, with a lingering trough/shear axis acrs just east of the lower MS Valley. Ridging aloft will build in from the west tonight, while a wedge of drier air in the mid levels acrs TN/N MS spreads southwestward into the region. Meanwhile, whatever is left of the diffuse frontal boundary that has been over the region the past several days will begin to lift north as it gradually dissipates, with onshore flow bcmg established as the Bermuda high ridges into the Gulf of Mexico.
A cold front is moving through the Treasure Valley this evening, accompanied by wind gusts to around 30 mph. Temperatures will be cooler with highs 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Cold front passing KBOI about 03z and KTWF/KBYI about 06z.
651 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020 Heights are slowly rising across the area as the upper level ridge axis shifts from the Rockies into the western High Plains. A weak disturbance is rounding the top of the ridge axis and crossing WY at this time. Scattered thunderstorms will again develop on the higher terrain to the west and attempt to push eastward into western and north central NE this evening. Very warm mid-level temperatures spread eastward off the higher terrain across the area Friday. "Cooler" mid 80s to around 90F are expected east of HWY 83.
642 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020 247 PM CDT Pleasant summer weather with comfortably low humidity will continue through Friday night and then we'll step back into a warmer and more humid pattern. Highs Friday will top out primarily in the lower 80s inland, with a few spots of 84 degrees, and upper 70s lakeside due to the lake breeze. Castro 307 PM CDT The warm and humid weather makes its return to the local area this weekend as the upper level ridge moves overhead.
As warm front lifts north moisture return could support fog development along/west of the escarpment in ND, and allow instability axis to shift north. And to account for the high uncertainty will maintain a slight chance of pops through the daytime tomorrow.
704 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 Expansive high pressure over the Great Lakes region will provide clear skies and calm/near calm winds over southeast Michigan tonight. Sprawling area of high pressure anchored over the region will sustain benign weather conditions over the next 48 hours. Projected 850-925 mb mean thermal layer roughly 1-2 degrees warmer than noted today, netting highs near or just above 80 degrees.
929 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 High pressure will give way tonight as a wave of low pressure approaches NY.
A warmer and more humid airmass will begin to build into the area through the weekend. The ILN CWA remains on the southern periphery of this high, with disorganized (though generally northerly) flow through the boundary layer. In the mid levels, a trough is still very slowly moving east across the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley, but precipitation associated with this trough has remained south and east of the ILN CWA this afternoon and evening. Also can't rule out isolated showers across the southeast portion of the CWA closer to the inverted trough and where slightly better moisture/weak convergence is located, but the majority will see a dry afternoon with temperatures rising into the upper 70s to lower 80s. High pressure will continue to influence the region Friday/Friday night, with an inverted trough over the Appalachians.
as afternoon high temperatures climb into the lower 80s and relative humidity values remain low. High pressure extending from New England southwestward into the Ohio River Valley will continue to dominate the weather across central Illinois today. Afternoon highs will be a couple degrees warmer than yesterday in the lower 80s. As the high slowly shifts eastward, a frontal boundary will begin approaching from the W/SW late tonight.
On the latest TAF issuance has initiated MVFR sooner by a few hours based on this satellite trend and short range models that continue to show some ceilings developing overnight mainly across the western half of the CWA along the Highway 90 corridor between SAT and DRT. Temperatures are in the lower to middle 90s and expect these to climb several more degrees before reaching the daytime highs. Expect quiet conditions to continue tonight as high pressure remains in control. Some of the high-resolution models are showing a stray shower or two in the Coastal Plains in the afternoon and will mention this with a 10 PoP as odds of any accumulations are pretty low at this time.
(Today and tonight) A fairly widespread area of showers and storms has developed over north central OK early this morning along a NNW to SSE oriented warm front. Otherwise, expect breezy and hot conditions by this afternoon especially across western OK where 850 mb temps will exceed 26 C under the upper ridge.
801 PM PDT Thu Aug 6 2020 A strong cold front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms today over Eastern Washington and north Idaho.
Dew point temperatures will remain in the tolerable range, in the lower 60s. Overnight lows will also be a bit warmer, in the lower to middle 60s.
An upper level trough will move off to the east today and tonight, replaced by rising heights aloft. At the sfc, high pressure will slowly move east across the Great Lakes.
GAH AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: A trough from the west will move through tonight into Friday. Longer term, an upper low pressure system hangs around Saskatchewan over the weekend with predominantly zonal flow over Montana.
Looking across the CONUS, we have an upper level ridge influencing the central part of the country with one upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest and another over the eastern U. Highs today will be in the mid to upper 80s, with heat indices in the low 90s. We still transition even further into the warm sector on Saturday, with a warm front moving north through the area.
An approaching cold front will make its way across southeast Idaho after midnight stirring up winds into the morning hours.
The building upper ridge from the west is expected to re- main the main focus through the weekend. On Friday, SE TX will lie on the periphery of an upper level ridge centered over West Texas. Convective temperatures will remain around 94 degrees so a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible but think most areas will probably remain dry as subsidence from the ridge will probably be the dominant weather feature.
Tonight-Saturday: The winds will likely remain brisk overnight, leading to warmer overnight lows.
A slightly warmer low-level air mass will yield max temps a couple degrees higher than yesterday, with low to locally mid 80s common. Dry conditions will continue tonight as weak southerly return flow begins ahead of broad low pressure over the central and northern High Plains.
The weather pattern across the lower 48 continues to be dominated by the upper ridge over the Southern Plains including here in Texas. There is an upper trough over the west coast that will soon be cutoff near the CA coast, and a upper trough moving through the upper Great Lakes and the NE United States. In the short term, the upper ridge will continue to give South Central Texas a persistence forecast of typical August heat with little to no chance of rain.
A weak trough remains draped over the region with an elongated ridge of high pressure just to our east. The highest area of thunderstorm coverage today is expected to be along the I-95 corridor and across north-central FL where PW values are forecast to be 2"+ and afternoon MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg will be on tap. As for temperatures, highs this afternoon will be in the low-mid 90s with heat indices of 100-105.
The lack of precipitation and cloud coverage will allow high temperatures to climb to the low-to-mid 90s across the CWA Friday afternoon. By Friday evening into Saturday morning, weak ridging slides into the southern Plains, bringing with it a northwesterly flow pattern that will maintain decreased chances of precipitation. A couple pockets of increased vorticity are expected to traverse the eastern edge of the ridge and move to the southeast, however due to increasing heights and mid-level dryness, convective development seems unlikely.
440 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020 Skies are mostly clear to partly cloudy with east winds of 5 to 10 mph which are resulting in temperature in the lower to mid 80s along the Florida Keys. Meanwhile, local radars are detecting scattered showers and an occasional lightning storm from just north of the Lower Keys, to the outer waters of Mainland Monroe. Little change in the overall large scale pattern with a western Atlantic ridge axis below 700 mb extending across the Sunshine State, with the axis expanding and retreating through the period. Meanwhile, mesoscale forcing in the form of wet cloud line genesis, especially along the Lower Keys will provide the best chance this afternoon.
219 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020 Today the subtropical ridge will be expansive and centered INVOF ABI/SJT by 00Z/Sat. To the w of the said ridge center there will be a primary SB instability axis that forms from far SE NM into the NE TX Panhandle while the primary mid-level theta-e ridge axis will extend from SW NM into W TX plains. Sat the subtropical ridge starts to become bifurcated with one center still near ABI and another in nrn Chihuahua, MX. As such there will be only an area from GDP Mtns-W Eddy County favored for a few SHRA/TSRA Sat PM in promixity to the lingering mid-level theta-e ridge.
While convection can always throw some curve balls, the main area of showers and storms is expected to be along and west of the Highway 65 corridor through the morning and early afternoon hours. Otherwise, Saturday has potential to be a few degrees warmer with highs in the low to mid 90s, but that will be highly dependent on convective evolution.
Widespread midlevel convective debris clouds are expected to clear quickly enough to allow for the expected warmer temperatures this afternoon.
211 AM MDT Fri Aug 7 2020 As a strong upper jet swings south into the northern part of the state this morning, ahead of it is a cold front passing through the area this morning, shifting winds to the northwest. Another cold front will pass over Saturday night and shift winds to the north. Although far SE Montana has prime conditions for severe storm potential Saturday evening, the delayed cold front that passes through overnight drastically reduces the risk for severe storms, but it's an area to keep an eye on.
An upper level ridge, centered over West Central Texas, will strengthen today, resulting in strong subsidence which will likely suppress any shower/thunderstorm activity. The 850 mb thermal ridge looks like it will weaken very slightly today, so perhaps there will be 1-2 degrees of cooling today. As far as winds go, surface ridging will continue over the Gulf, while low pressure will continue in the lee of the Rocky Mountains, resulting in continued south to southeast winds.
144 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020 A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible in and near the ridges both tonight and tomorrow afternoon, with mainly dry weather elsewhere. Showers/storms will progress eastward out of the area a bit faster on Friday as upper-level steering becomes more orthogonal to the boundary and the upper-level trough lifts off to the northeast. Warmer, drier conditions are anticipated for Saturday.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible with the greatest risk of flash flooding in the lower Susquehanna Valley. WPC has upgraded the lower Susquehanna Valley to a SLGT risk ERO (level 2 out of 4). Increasing influence of high pressure sfc and aloft should spell a downward trend in diurnal convection to start the weekend. MaxT24hourChange will be about +2 to +6 degrees warmer vs.
Meanwhile, a ridge of high pressure is bringing mostly clear skies and temperatures as of 8 PM CDT, in the lower to middle 70s at most locations. A large area of high pressure covers much of the Great Lakes region at this time. A warm front currently extends across central Oklahoma and into east Texas. The warm front will start to move east on Friday reaching far western sections of Arkansas by early Saturday morning. Warmer air will start to move into the region on Friday with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
326 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020 A weak cold front will become stationary over central NC today before slowly dissipating late in the weekend. Areas of dense fog this morning followed by scattered thunderstorms The mid/upper level trough will continue to weaken and lift out today.
Low level moisture is there, but the winds might be a little strong to get the lower visibilities. The east will be cooler since the clouds will linger in that area longer. Temperatures should be a little cooler behind a very weak cold front that works through the north tonight. A ridge moves through on Saturday and temperatures warm up. An upper level wave moves through the ridge Saturday night and brings a chance for thunderstorms, mainly during the evening.
First, a weak MCV did form overnight across western South Dakota along and east of a warm frontal boundary. But a better chance will likely have to wait until this afternoon and evening with an eastward moving cold front. Weather or not storms can develop further west is also uncertain, as height rises from the lifting trough into Sask/Manitoba and resulting capping may prevent much convection there this afternoon and evening.
E-SE low- level flow south of the warm front over s cntrl/swrn SD will support moistening boundary layers, increased low-level hodograph curvature, and strengthening deep-layer shear.
The weak central GOMEX mid level trough will continue to slowly fill as the western flank of the Atlantic ridge over Florida strengthens. At the surface, the SLP and wind flow pattern over the peninsula become somewhat amorphous as the ridge overhead broadens. Subtropical ridge axis will generally remain across the area over the next several days, with a weak low level south to southeasterly flow allowing the east coast sea breeze boundary to form and move slowly inland each afternoon. Overnight lows will continue to range around the low to mid 70s.
SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): The mid level ridge will continue to stay centered over North Texas through the short term period, providing subsidence to the region. This increased moisture combined with a weak inverted trough/easterly wave moving into Central Mexico on Saturday will increase rain chances, particularly on Saturday afternoon.
330 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020 A few showers and thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of the ridges this afternoon, with mainly dry weather elsewhere. Building high pressure will create above average temperatures this weekend. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will once again develop near and along the ridges late afternoon as the upper-level trough crosses into western PA. Models suggest that the trough axis will be somewhat out-of-phase west of the Laurel Highlands. With the best low-level lapse rates and instability embedded in the ridges, orographic lift may help updrafts sustain some strength before quickly exiting our county warning area. Warm, dry conditions are anticipated Saturday as high pressure builds to our west.
Thereafter, the region will remain situated between Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough of low pressure. The area will remain under a stationary front and between an upper-level trough and surface Atlantic high pressure tonight.
400 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020 Heights aloft continue to rise early this morning, as the upper ridge over the Southern Plains strengthens and begins to shift northeastward. Atop the ridge and east of a lee trough, several areas of thunderstorms are still ongoing from Oklahoma up through the Dakotas, maintained by a southerly LLJ. Heading into the afternoon, strengthening lee troughing should tighten the pressure gradient across eastern Kansas, with southerly winds increasing as a result. As this occurs, the upper ridge axis will move almost overhead, with H70 temps rising to 25-28C. Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s will push heat indices to around 105, so may need to consider a heat advisory to cover those impacts.
220 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020 A weak cold front will become stationary over central NC today before slowly dissipating late in the weekend. Areas of dense fog this morning followed by scattered thunderstorms The mid/upper level trough will continue to weaken and lift out today.
High pressure settles over the area late in the weekend. Latest analysis shows an upper level trough to our west, while at the surface a stalled frontal boundary remains across the Mid Atlantic. The upper level trough will slowly progress east today, while the surface boundary will remain in the vicinity of the area.
GFS model today showed upper level high pressure dome to our west with some ridging extending east into our area.
A tropical wave is moving through the Gulf with a plume of moisture being pulled into the southeast US via ridging off the Atlantic coast and a weak trough from the midwest southward into the central Gulf.