Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN RESIDING OVER THE PLAINS AND EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY EAST OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH MOVES EAST.
WITH A 120 KT UPPER JET BETWEEN THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. PROFILES CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL SD. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. COOLER AIR BEGINS PUSHING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.
THE MODELS PROGRESSIVELY LIFT THE UPPER TROUGH NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND STATES BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
MIN RH'S FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 20 PERCENT RANGE COMBINING WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE LIMITED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE WEST AND SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS HAS ALREADY BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO AND GRAPHICASTS. WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW BROAD TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WEST.
947 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016 A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN U.
1211 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016 H5 SIMILAR PATTERN TO YESTERDAY WITH WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 30S OVER NORTH CENTRAL ONEILL VICINITY AND TO THE WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. LOWS IN THE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 20S WITH TEENS ONEILL.
After a brief lull in pcpn tmrw, another lobe of vorticity rounding the base of the mean long wave trof will squeeze out more snow showers Wed night.
500 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 THE SURFACE SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE A LINGERING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS THEN EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
*** MID MORNING DISCUSSION UPDATE *** AN EASE IN OFFSHORE FLOW RESULTED IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN SOME LOCATIONS AROUND THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE PROFILE IS WARMER AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE BENIGN IN MANY AREAS. AND WARMER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS COLORADO. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS AND DOWN THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND PARK COUNTY WITH SUFFICIENT CROSS MOUNTAIN COMPONENT. INVERSIONS SHOULD BE ABLE TO SET UP FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS BUT SOME WIND TO KEEP THINGS MORE MIXED ON THE RIDGES. STRONG UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN U.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO IDAHO WITH A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH CARVED OUT OVER THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. THIS RIDGE WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOST OF THE DAYS AHEAD HAVE RECORDS IN THE LOWER-80S. A VERY WEAK TROUGH SLIDING DOWN THE RIDGE WILL BRING SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE MOVE AWAY.
319 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016 A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.
Strong ridge/Omega Block's axis has shifted just E of our CWA and is oriented from B. has resulted in cooler temps. Temperatures will begin to cool a bit across NorCal during the mid to late week as the ridge weakens and its axis shifts slightly to our east. Morning models and current satellite trends suggest that some cloud cover from the system just offshore will survive encountering the ridge and spread into the CWA late tonight and Wed. The clouds may thicken enough to produce light precip/sprinkles over our Nrn Mtns Wed nite/Thu as a second wave encounters the ridge.
ALOFT: NNW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NW THRU TOMORROW AS DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE WRN RIDGE/ERN TROF BEGINS. WE WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST DEAMPLIFY.
THIS IS COURTESY OF PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING SOMETIME AROUND NOON IN MANY LOCATIONS.
ONE MORE WARM DAY THEN TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TREND COOLER THROUGH THE THE REST OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.
A high amplitude pattern with ridging over the western US and a deep trough extending from Hudson Bay to the Gulf Coast continues to maintain northwest flow aloft across southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Wednesday will be even warmer, with highs expected to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal area-wide.
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE POLAR REGIONS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE A BEEFY RIDGE OVERLAYS THE LEFT COAST. IT APPEARS THIS RIDGE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND ALLOWED SOME WARMER AIR IN ALOFT. YAMPA VALLEY AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER GUNNY MAY SEE A BIT MORE PATCHY FOG. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE WITH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING THIN FOG AND HAZE POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEYS AND THE HIGHER PLATEAUS AND BASIN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN U. BUT WILL DEFINITE CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER ABOVE THE INVERSION IN THE MOUNTAINS AND COLDER BENEATH THE INVERSIONS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AND PLATEAU.
ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF TROUGHS IS ALIGNED FROM THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
This will be in response to increased surface pressure gradient as low pressure develops across the central Plains.
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION.
AS WE REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. WITH TEMPS NECESSARILY WARMER THAN TODAY AS A RESULT.
COULD HAVE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE 06Z. MODELS PROG A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH SURFACE WINDS SWITCHING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE EAST.
FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE (994 MILLIBARS) STRENGTHENING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND WAS BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS STATES. DEEP UPPER TROUGHING PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY WITH A TREND TOWARD HIGHER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AS WESTERN RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. MEANWHILE WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCASIONALLY FORCE WEAK COLD FRONTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. THE LOW WATER ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH CURRENT TIDAL READINGS ALONG THE SE TX AND SW LA COAST RANGING FROM -2. /ISSUED 428 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/ THE DRY COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION IS PRODUCING DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS THIS MORNING. BY TOMORROW MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SETTLED INTO THE REGION AND WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE INTO THE GULF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE REGION. WILL AGAIN SEE SOME NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE AN INVERSION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH MOST BURNING OFF BY AFTERNOON BUT WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT. THEN A STRENGTHENING INVERSION WILL TRAP AND INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER PRODUCING LOW CIGS AND FOG DUE TO INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING WELL PAST DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY.
232 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016 FCST AREA TO REMAIN UNDER NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST. AS THE RIDGE NUDGES EWD WILL SEE HEIGHTS AND INCREASES INCREASE AS WELL.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A SFC TROF ACROSS THE NORTH AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY/CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH. TUESDAY NIGHT THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO EDGE OFF TO THE EAST. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER 20S WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS.
TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY ACROSS THE REGION AND MANY COASTAL SITES ARE WARMER THAN THE INLAND VALLEYS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
Amplified pattern with troughing across the east and ridging to the west will keep area in northerly flow aloft. On Wednesday ridge axis slips east of the area as 850mb-700mb warm advection kicks in.
500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.
AS THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE GULF COAST WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. /ISSUED 330 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/ NORTH TEXAS IS CURRENTLY SITUATED BETWEEN A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST. NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE INFLUENCE FROM THE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL BE FELT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE MOD 60S ACROSS THE WEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST AREA UNDER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AND HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN 1/4 OF THE COUNTRY EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF CANADA. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. UNDER FULL MIXING HIGHS WOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S TO AROUND 70. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GFS/NAM TRY TO BACK A COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR EAST/NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO CREATE SOME STRATUS CLOUDS. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
The western ridge/eastern trough pattern will continue through today and tonight. The low will be positioned somewhere across central/eastern Nebraska by Wednesday afternoon with west-northwesterly lower tropospheric flow off the Colorado/Wyoming high terrain. A warmer ECMWF/WRF-ARW solution is favored Wednesday, which both support highs well into the mid/upper 60s across western Kansas and some lower 70s along the Oklahoma border.
500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS THE REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS DRAPED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. HIGHLY AMPLIFIES RIDGE WILL VIRTUALLY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD SO THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. HIGH TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY QUIET AS THE WESTERN US RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME LEE SIDE TROUGHING THAT WILL KEEP BRISK WINDS UP AROUND LIVINGSTON.
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW. DESPITE HIGH SNOWFALL RATIOS WITH MUCH OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
AHEAD OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH SHOULD WIND SHOWER ACTIVITY DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST.
WHILE WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN BORDER AND INCREASING MID CLOUDS WILL HOLD LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S IN OUR WEST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE AND IOWA GREAT LAKES.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE TUESDAY ONE MORE SUNNY AND MILD DAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT. WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RUN A LITTLE COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT. COUPLED WITH A WARMING THERMAL PROFILE AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO EASE OUT TO THE EAST. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER. THERE IS SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME FOR A SMALL INCREASE IN POPS SUN NIGHT AND MON INTO THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE. 13 WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST REGION.
Northwest flow aloft will continue through tomorrow with an upper level ridge in the west with a trof in the east. A weak frontal boundary or trof will set up at the surface across far western Kansas this evening and shift eastward through tomorrow.
256 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN TEXAS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ONSHORE WINDS RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY.
DID MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S IN THE FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. WITH ANOTHER TROUGH FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. DESPITE THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. THE DRY AIR FROM THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA. CAUSING THERE TO BE NO PRECIPITATION DESPITE THE TROUGH PASSAGE.
333 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016 THE REGION REMAINS IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. A TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WARMER DOWNSLOPING TO OUR WEST MOVES EAST WITH COLDER AIRMASS STUCK WITHIN THE TROUGH.
SLOW COOLING LATE THIS WEEK TO CLOSER TO NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED AN UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA. THE 09/1200 UTC KNKX SOUNDING DISPLAYED EASTERLY WINDS IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WIND WILL BE THE MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM AS A LEE TROUGH DIGS AT THE SURFACE AND A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ALONG THE ABSAROKAS. FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE RED DESERT TO CASPER AS THE LEE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SET UP WITH 20 TO 35 MPH WINDS COMMON IN THAT AREA.
WITH A STG RIDGE NR THE WEST COAST AND A DEEP TROF OVER ERN NOAM. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUED EAST OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF WISCONSIN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOCUSED ON LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT MOST LOCATIONS AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES.
THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY. SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION.
DID MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S IN THE FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST.
110 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 MUCH COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST. ESPECIALLY INTO THE RIDGES. H500 TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AS CLOSED LOW OPENS UP. ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES. ANOTHER INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST.
ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL HOVER IN THE LOWER 30S. CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP NEAR FREEZING. INTO THE LOWER 30S AND UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER AND MOISTURE SLIGHTLY LOWER. TEMPERATURES ARE IN OUR FAVOR WITH GROUND TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND SURFACE TEMPS AT FREEZING, DROPPING JUST BELOW WHEN SNOW FALLS. HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS AN AREA OF INCREASED FORCING ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW AND ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE NORTHEASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR FREEZING AND A SNOW BAND LINES UP TO MOVE ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN SNOWFALL. WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHWEST.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT LIGHT WINDS WILL GO VARIABLE FOR A GOOD PART OF WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
A ridge of high pressure continues to be the dominant feature over the Northern Rockies for the next several days. Daytime temperatures will run above normal for this time of year, particularly in the higher terrain and high elevation valleys. The ridge breaks down at the end of the week causing a cooler and wetter weekend.
1055 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016 Strong high pressure will persist into Wednesday.
THIS FLOW WILL FINALLY BREAK OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HUDSON BAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS ALLOWING A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO MORE WESTERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES (POSSIBLY MUCH WARMER) TOWARDS NEXT TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY IN THE 7-10 DAY RANGE.
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRANSITION INTO A LONG WAVE TROUGH. BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE LOWER SUSQ /MAINLY EAST OF THE RIVER AT 20Z/ WHERE RATES IN HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS ARE RUNNING AROUND A HALF TO AN INCH/HOUR. BECOMING A LONG WAVE TROUGH TONIGHT. DOWNSLOPE MAY ALLOW THE SE TO GET A DEG OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY.
Upper low currently over the Great Lakes region will begin to lift northeast into Canada on Wednesday.
1045 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016 18Z TAF CYCLE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND INLAND NW WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SFC WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS.
THIS WOULD IN TURN PRODUCE FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN.
1042 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN STAGNANT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. COULD BE WARMER THOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW QUICK THE SNOWPACK MELTS WHICH WILL HAVE A HAND IN MIXING THE WARMER TEMPS DOWN TO THE SFC. KEPT THE FORECAST CLOSE TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE AS A DECENT SNOW PACK IS STILL IN PLACE.
THE LOW WATER ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH CURRENT TIDAL READINGS ALONG THE SE TX AND SW LA COAST RANGING FROM -2. /ISSUED 428 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/ THE DRY COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION IS PRODUCING DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS THIS MORNING. BY TOMORROW MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SETTLED INTO THE REGION AND WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE INTO THE GULF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
Coverage of snow showers is expected to increase over the next few hours as individual disturbances continue to rotate through the parent trough. Temperatures will also struggle, only reaching into the low and mid 20s.
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY LOWER TODAY THAN WHAT WAS SEEN YESTERDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RH VALUES IN THE LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE FREEZING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA, AND WERE HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
945 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016 Strong high pressure will persist into Wednesday.
MEANWHILE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE A STRONG WEST CONUS RIDGE. AND DOWNSTREAM EAST CONUS TROF.
330 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 A cold front currently located from near Springfield to Bloomington will continue to progress eastward today. Many locations will see cooler temperatures in the afternoon than the morning as a result. Cooler air will gradually settle in from the north behind the boundary. A cold front near the Wabash river at 00Z/6 pm today will continue to slowly press southeast toward the Ohio river tonight and likely continue rain chances behind the front tonight though diminishing nw of the IL river. Meanwhile 1041 mb Canadian high pressure over the Dakotas will ridge eastward into the upper Great Lakes regions this weekend.
FARTHER SOUTH NEAR THE KS/MO BORDERS THE FREEZING RAIN MAY LAST LONGER. ROAD CONDITIONS IN MOST OF THE WARNING AREA REMAINED RELATIVELY GOOD WITH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES REMAINING JUST ABOVE FREEZING. STILL SEEING A FREEZING RAIN/ICE PELLET MIX ALONG I80 CORRIDOR. KEPT THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WHERE TEMPS ARE JUST NOW APPROACHING FREEZING. BUT THE SECOND SURGE COMING OUT OF CENTRAL KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE TO AREAS SOUTH OF I80 BY MID TO LATE EVENING.
430 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE ONLY AREAS WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE NEAR FREEZING ARE ACROSS BUCHANAN AND DELAWARE COUNTIES BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE THERE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECTING A TEMP RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NW CWA TO THE LOWER 40S OVER THE SE. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF AN IOWA CITY IOWA TO FREEPORT ILLINOIS LINE MAY RECEIVE A BRIEF MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE/SLEET WHERE TEMPS ARE NEAR FREEZING THROUGH 8 OR 9 AM CST.
ALL THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE RAPIDLY DRYING OUT OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN A SUNNY AND SEASONABLE WEEKEND.
DAYTIME TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH A TRANSITION ZONE OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP TO FREEZING OR BELOW. THOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN WARM ENOUGH WITH NO ICE INTRODUCTION TO ALLOW FOR PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO PUSH IN AFTER 00Z AND FZRA TO TRANSITION TO SN MORE QUICKLY. WILL SEE LINGERING FZRA ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN CWA WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. MAY NEED TO EXPAND FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY INTO THIS AREA.
339 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
The freezing line continues to creep south and is currently moving into northern Lea County. Temperatures will likely fall to or just below freezing by early Friday morning across the warned areas.
SITES SHELTERED FROM THE EASTERLY WINDS THAT REMAIN CALM ALL NIGHT WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING ALONG THE COAST. GRANTED THE COASTAL HEADLANDS AND POINTS RIGHT NEAR THE OCEAN PROBABLY WILL NOT SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES. MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARD A STRONGER W COAST UPPER RIDGE ON MON. MODELS APPEAR TO BE LATCHING ONTO A TROF OVER THE EXTREME E PAC. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES COAST.
343 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015 MID LEVEL TROF AXIS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN ITS HOLD ON THE REGION WITH NORTH WINDS BETWEEN 5-15 MPH.
841 PM PST THU NOV 26 2015 Chilly temperatures and clear skies are expected through at least Friday as strong high pressure builds over the Pacific Northwest.