Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
H7 winds show a very weak area of low pressure in that area and this forcing is reflected in increased QPF from the NAM and GFS. Aside from the precipitation down south, a deep area of low pressure moving along the U. Once the front/trough moves through, winds will switch to the northwest overnight and limit advecting moisture from the south for areas north of I-70. Add to the mix an upper level trough approaching from the Great Basin and all ingredients are in place for some heavy rainfall.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will once again be possible today, with the higher chances being at KTRI/KTYS.
A dry cold front will cross northern and central Utah today with drier and somewhat cooler air spreading in behind the front.
638 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2016 High pressure will crest across the area this morning before sliding offshore into the gulf of Maine.
Trough of low pressure over the Atlantic waters will slowly move west over S Florida today keeping rich tropical moisture over the area. High temperatures will be in the low 90s today with heat index values at around 103 towards the west and 100 along the east coast metro area. Low temperatures will be a few degrees below normal tonight with convection still continuing along the west Gulf coast as this low pressure moves westward. Drier air will gradually move west northwest as trough exits the region Thursday and high pressure begins to build over the western Atlantic.
High pressure over the Great Basin will provide for one more day of above normal temperatures over the area today.
Hot dry Desert Air resides over the southwestern quarter of the CONUS with a ridge running northeastward through Wyoming and the Dakotas. A closed low aloft sets over north central Montana with a pacific airmass running westward into Washington. Another Closed low lays over the northern coast of British Columbia.
658 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2016 High pressure will remain in control of our weather for today and Thursday with warmer and partly sunny days. The higher resolution models continue to show isolated showers over the lake plain, perhaps in response to lake breeze boundaries. Our upper level ridge in place now does flatten a bit this afternoon but model soundings are very dry in the mid levels.
The srn ridge portion of the ridge extends south into the Gulf of Mexico and is helping to steer Tropical Storm Earl westward acrs the wrn Caribbean. subtropical high pres continues to weakly ridge fm off the SE coast acrs FL into the nrn Gulf, with lt s/sw or near calm winds noted over the region early this morning. For today, convection should remain generally isltd as subsidence associated with the ridge aloft continues to suppress development. There could be a slightly higher chc for rain acrs Acadiana and the Lower Atchafalaya Basin as the center of the high aloft retrogrades a bit.
306 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2016 A mid and upper level ridge will spend the the next several days meandering around the south-central part of the country, all the while providing hot weather for North and Central Texas.
352 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2016 Skies will be clear to partly cloudy tonight under high pressure and allow patchy valley fog to form toward morning in the twin tiers. High pressure will remain in control of our weather for Wednesday and Thursday with warmer and partly sunny days. Water vapor imagery overlaid with the latest RAP 500 mb geopotential height fields show an upper level ridge axis over the Eastern Lakes. For Wednesday, upper level ridge axis flattens as a short wave ripples through. Models including the Euro, GFS, NAM, GEM and both Hi-res WRFs indicate some very light isolated QPF in these areas as the southwesterly return flow around the high to the east leads to low-level moisture advection and some low-level CAPE through the Lake Ontario plain.
upper ridge through the near term period. Models build a wedge-like ridge into the state from the northeast tonight through Thursday behind the surface wave lifting northeast. upper ridge tries to build back in from the west with 591dm sneaking into NW GA.
147 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2016 Skies will be clear to partly cloudy tonight under high pressure and allow patchy valley fog to form toward morning in the twin tiers. High pressure will remain in control of our weather for Wednesday and Thursday with warmer and partly sunny days. Water vapor imagery overlaid with the latest RAP 500 mb geopotential height fields show an upper level ridge axis over the Eastern Lakes. For Wednesday, upper level ridge axis flattens as a short wave ripples through. Models including the Euro, GFS, NAM, GEM and both Hi-res WRFs indicate some very light isolated QPF in these areas as the southwesterly return flow around the high to the east leads to low-level moisture advection and some low-level CAPE through the Lake Ontario plain.
There remains fair model agreement in sustaining/developing further a lee trough (or weak low) in the northwest flow regime over the southern Appalachians. Additionally, beginning late morning/early afternoon, expect storms to develop along the trough in south Georgia. Highs are expected to peak in the low 90s where rain is more widespread, and closer to the mid 90s elsewhere.
Abundant moisture continues across the area early this morning, with dewpoints at lower elevations valid 10Z ranging from the mid 60s across eastern sections to the lower 70s into the western deserts.
308 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2016 An area of weak high pressure stretching from the Great Lakes to New England will shift to the east on Thursday.
While PoPs were removed over the west where skies are now mostly sunny, can't rule out convection forming along the cold front as it move east. Wednesday night: Upper ridging over the region will begin to shift east, leading to mostly clear skies. Thursday and Thursday night: A compact mid-level trough currently centered near Seattle will track along the international border through Wednesday night. An associated cold front will cross the CWA late Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. This combined with temps rising well into the 80s will create heat index values as high as the low 90s for most locations on Thursday. The aforementioned capping will likely prevent any appreciable shower/storm activity ahead of the cold front/trough.
A weak cold front will sweep through the Bay Area tonight bringing a chance for rain.
The mid to upper level low west of El Paso is expected to weaken tonight and lift out to the northeast across West Texas Saturday and into Oklahoma Saturday night.
tilted mid level H5 closed low is situated over far West TX and Southern NM. Flow around this low is streaming ample moisture into the region. keeping us rather cool and cloudy across portions of the Lower RGV. rain free conditions will not likely last long as the closed low begins to reorient itself and tilts more upright. The trough will slowly get absorbed by the mean flow and will eventually become an open wave late in the period.
will settle on down across the middle Mississippi river valley in the wake of the trof's passage. This will set the stage to yield a clear sky/cool advection for Saturday night lows to dip to or just below the freezing mark again. Hard freezing temps look to remain beyond the period of this forecast, as we remain in an otherwise seasonal or above seasonal thermo environment, so no headlines this issuance.
624 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 An approaching cold front will move through the forecast area early tonight. The pressure ridge behind the front will extend through the Ohio River Valley Saturday.
The 7 pm regional surface analysis showed a weak trough from the western Atlantic through SC and eastern TN, and a cold front from the Mid Atlantic region through the MO-AR border. Satellite imagery and upper air data showed a weak short wave trough translating eastward across the FL Panhandle and eastern AL, and a cold front aloft from the Mid Atlantic through MO.
543 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2016 For the 00Z TAFs, some potential for patchy radiational fog or freezing fog to develop at the terminal sites late tonight into early Saturday morning, with the greatest likelihood at KAMA. Have included MVFR vsbys at all sites from about 09Z until 15Z Saturday to account for this fog or freezing fog potential. Should any fog or freezing fog develop, it should erode by around 15Z Saturday. /Issued 308 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2016/ No big surprises or changes with this forecast: Freezing and near- freezing temperatures tonight with freeze warning and frost advisory being in effect.
926 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 High pressure from the northern plains and upper midwest will move southeast across the Ohio Valley this weekend.
A cold front passed through today with little fanfare. Should valleys end up decoupling late tonight, there would be frost and possibly freezing temps in those locations. This should allow for freezing temps just about everywhere, with lower 20s in many valleys. Time heights are particularly dry in the lower levels and would suspect this will lead to RH values in the 20 to 30 percent range. That said fire weather concerns will remain a concern, but winds will remain light given the high pressure location.
Overview: Anchoring long wave troughs remain over the eastern Pacific/Gulf of Alaska region as well as far eastern Canada into New England, with sharp long wave ridging/warm air in between. Digging short wave trough and pocket of cold-ish air continues to sag through the Great Lakes/Midwest region and into the Ohio Valley today, and has knocked our temperatures down closer to normal readings for the second week of November. As we've seen so much of through the fall season, "cold"air shot today is temporary as large expanse of high pressure across the upper Midwest today builds east/south heading into the weekend.
The current forecast projects the lowest temperatures of the season so far for many places. Fries High pressure will remain in control through the rest of the weekend, bringing quiet weather.
550 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 After sprinkles move through with a cold front, expect colder temperatures and dry conditions for the weekend. Sprinkles continue to move from north to south along a cold front currently crossing the region. High pressure will remain in control through the rest of the weekend, bringing quiet weather.
540 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2016 A cold front, currently just north of the Red River, will move south across the entire region tonight. Pre-frontal winds are already northwest at speeds generally less than 10 knots so the passage of the cold front will only turn the winds a bit more northerly and increase the wind speed by a couple of knots. A cold front that extends southeast of a Muskogee Oklahoma to Wichita Falls to Lubbock line at 3 PM will continue to move southeast through the rest of the forecast area tonight. Despite the mostly sunny skies on Saturday, highs will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today, ranging from the lower 60s northwest to the lower 70s southeast.
/issued 418 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2016/ A cold front will be moving over the four state region overnight returning colder temperatures to the area for late tonight and the weekend.
Surface lee troughing develops, limiting cooling by a few degrees. Surface lee troughing will aid in a decent warming trend and have compromised between the NAM and GFS MOS maximums for high temperatures.
VFR will continue through the next 24 hours as dry high pressure moves in from the northwest.
While there has been a little moistening in the mid- levels, the low levels remain quite dry so total column water content has persisted around 0. /issued 334 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2016/ Frontogenetic forcing underway over Arkansas with a resurgence of cooler air amassing over the Plains States. these conditions will likely linger through Saturday when the impulse gets lifted from increasing amplitude trough over the central Mississippi Valley Saturday night. Models show larger amplitude troughing taking place over the eastern half of the nation with higher amplitude ridging developing over the desert southwest.
Cold front/secondary push of colder air moving through SE OK/NW AR early this evening, currently south of a MLC/FYV line. /Issued 342 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2016/ A cold front was moving across the area today with little fanfare other than a wind shift to the north. The normally colder valleys will likely fall below freezing Saturday night just as they did a couple nights ago, and freeze headlines may eventually be needed for a few counties.
459 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2016 A quiet weather pattern continues across the area this afternoon, as high pressure builds south into the region behind a passing dry cold front. Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 30s tonight, with just a bit of passing high cloud cover. Winds will be light and easterly as the high moves overhead.
Upper flow is still from the west southwest due to a stubborn trough which remains anchored across Northern Mexico into far western Texas attm. A positive tilted trough across the Tenn Valley is helping to push a cold front into our region and as of 03z. This front will help to usher in cooler/drier air for the upcoming weekend.
433 PM MST Fri Nov 11 2016 Updated Aviation section Quiet weather pattern continues across the forecast area with upper level ridge parked over the western states. Also seeing some cumulus popping over the higher peaks and could see a light shower or more likely a little virga and push of wind late this afternoon into the early evening hours. However, coverage will be 10 percent or less with only the highest peaks impacted. Ridging starts breaking down on Saturday with high cloud increasing as we see a Pacific wave roll across the northern states.
Near latitudinal mid/upper trof dropping south through the plains and Mississippi valley will be sufficient to advance a weak front into the area overnight with boundary stalling near the coast. Expecting highs again to make it into the low 70s Saturday which is near our seasonal norm. Cutoff low over the southwest CONUS which has been responsible for the influx of Pacific moisture through the mid-week is in the process of phasing with plains trof and kicking out while weakening. Leftover southward troffing of feature will approach the area for the latter part of the weekend accompanied by another round of cirrus.
508 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2016 High pressure settle south through the night which will allow for light winds in many locations most of the night.
The upper ridge will remain in place over the southwestern U. high pressure will continue over the central plains south to southeast winds across eastern Colorado. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer. Temperatures will be warmer than normal but not close to record levels.
Strong radiational cooling expected tonight, with a clearing sky, a drying airmass and light winds allowing most locations to fall near/below freezing (25-32). Seasonably cool on Saturday, starting out near/below freezing and recirculating cool continental polar airmass.
608 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 High pressure from the northern plains and upper midwest will move southeast across the Ohio Valley this weekend.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 42 65 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 38 60 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 38 61 32 64 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 33 58 27 61 / 0 0 0 10 NC.
High pressure over Florida will keep dry conditions over the area through Saturday.
Looks like good decoupling this evening as high pressure moves overhead with clear skies and winds going very light/calm. As the center of the high continues to slide south of the region toward morning, an increasing albeit weak n/s pressure gradient sets up across the area. Warm air advection kicks in Saturday with breezy southwest winds on the backside of the high.
High pressure over the eastern Dakotas and western MN will slide southeast into Iowa, southwest WI and northern IL tonight. Gusty southwest winds and associated WAA will develop as the high drifts south on Saturday.
The first freeze of the season appears likely tonight as skies clear and cold advection continues across the area in the wake of a cold front that passed through the area last night. High pressure will dominate throughout the short term, leaving temperatures as the only significant forecast variable.
Mid to high level clouds associated with a strengthening southern stream jet will make the low temperature forecast a little more uncertain tonight. Therefore, the forecast will be a little warmer than statistical guidance with lows in the mid to upper 40s inland with low to mid 50s along the coast, which is near average. Therefore, dry weather will persist with seasonal highs in the low to mid 70s under partly cloud skies.
1023 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 An approaching cold front will move through the forecast area overnight. The pressure ridge behind the front will extend through the Ohio River Valley Saturday.
418 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2016 A cold front will be moving over the four state region overnight returning colder temperatures to the area for late tonight and the weekend.
The upper level low pressure trough was moving southeast, with some mid and upper clouds noted.
933 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2016 With return flow pressure gradient tightening up across central South Dakota, south-southeast breezes have developed. High pressure will move off to the east overnight with a south/southwest wind component and a pressure gradient peaking around 14mb across the state by morning.
Expect lows in the low to mid 40s areawide, with a few areas possibly dropping into the upper 30s.
701 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 A cold front has moved south of the region, and a dry area of high pressure is moving into the Ohio Valley from the north. This high will remain in place through the weekend, with no precipitation expected.
800 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 Quiet WX pattern over central FL with a remnant frontal trof over the south peninsula, and a cool front pushing into the Deep South.
920 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 A dry cold front will exit the southern counties overnight, with chilly high pressure building in its wake through Saturday.
Dry upper ridge centered over the Great Basin remains our main weather maker today and providing our area with another day with unseasonably warm temperatures. IR imagery indicating more high clouds are inbound being pulled up ahead of an upper low centered near 41N/133W. The 12Z WRF is indicating the upper low will track east- northeast into the PAC NW by early Saturday.
At the surface, a cool high pressure system was centered over the northern plains as it slowly builds south. Have kept lows tonight in the lower 30s, although model guidance wants to trend these temps a few degrees warmer. Think the models may be trending warmer because dewpoint temps are progged to remain a little warmer. With full insolation, I've trended highs warmer into the upper 50s.
High clouds via the SW flow aloft will continue across the region as the upper low lingers over far West TX. /ISSUED 300 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2016/ Overall, there was little change made to the short term forecast for Southeast Texas as a broad upper low remains centered near El Paso, with associated southwest flow aloft transporting mid and upper level Pacific moisture across the region. Otherwise, less cloud cover tonight will encourage more radiational cooling than what was observed this morning and allow overnight temperatures to fall into the low 50s to low 60s. With this frontal boundary remaining north of the region tomorrow, Saturday is expected to be a similar day to today with partly cloudy skies and highs in the low to mid 70s.
Cold front continues to approach the region from the north. A mid to upper level trough was noted from New England to the Central Plains pressing slowly southeastward. Cold front will move into southeast GA late tonight into early Saturday morning followed by wind shift to the north-northeast around 10 mph. A good chance of MVFR cigs developing tomorrow in the wake of cold front.
Current Situation and Analysis -- Deep ridging prevails across the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters this evening, with a deep layer of dry and stable air aloft.
The first change will be to add patchy fog to the lower Treasure Valley, Upper Weiser Basin, and Long Valley (McCall) for the remainder of tonight. Latest satellite, radar, and model data were all pointing to a drier forecast as the trough to our west will weaken by the time it arrives on Saturday. The parent upper low will lift well north into British Columbia which will basically divert the majority of the shower activity to our northwest. However, there will be slight chance of showers across the north on Saturday as the weak upper trough swings through the region. Patchy MVFR fog through early Saturday morning in the lower Treasure Valley (KBOI-KONO), and in the Long Valley (KMYL).
It will be clear and cold overnight as high pressure over Iowa and southern Wisconsin moves to the northern portions of central Indiaan by 12Z Saturday. Tweaked temperatures down slightly overnight outside of INDY as high pressure will be sitting across our region by 12Z along with a dry airmass above. High pressure will dominate throughout the short term, leaving temperatures as the only significant forecast variable.
Eastern Montana is under a large upper ridge tonight and is cloud free, like most of the state. Templer Previous Discussion - Synoptic Setup: A ridge axis runs from central California through Idaho, Montana, and into southern Saskatchewan. The ridge influence is spread out over the western half of the CONUS and central Canada. Al large trough sets over the Gulf of Alaska. Tonight through Saturday: Ridge axis will move overhead creating a strong center of high pressure aloft focus over eastern Montana. influence from this high pressure will maintain all the way through Saturday making for clear skies and dry warm conditions.
North to northeast winds are expected to stay in the 5-10 kt range overnight as a low pressure trough moves southward through the area.
The short term continues to be dominated by a quasi-stationary h500 ridge across the northern plains. The lee-side trough will move east and approach the Dakotas tonight and move into the western Dakotas Saturday afternoon.
645 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 Aviation High pressure over the Ohio Valley will provide plenty of sunshine this weekend.
645 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 A dry cold front will push southward through the area this evening.
632 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 High pressure will build into the region overnight. Temperatures will drop below freezing over the entire area in the morning.
921 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 A cold front has moved south of the region, and a dry area of high pressure is moving into the Ohio Valley from the north. This high will remain in place through the weekend, with no precipitation expected.
925 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 Update/Marine High pressure over the Ohio Valley will provide plenty of sunshine this weekend.
Dry boundary has pushed through with a reinforcing shot of cooler settling in over the region.
246 PM PST Fri Nov 11 2016 High pressure will prevail through the end of the week with dry conditions, light winds and above average daytime temperatures.
Weak high pressure remains to the north of the waters, with clear and dry conditions and light north to northeast winds.
A weak cold front is situated just to the north of the CWA currently. A cold front coming through overnight will strengthen light north winds by late morning tomorrow with some gusts tomorrow over 15 mph possible.
322 PM MST Fri Nov 11 2016 Quiet weather pattern continues across the forecast area with upper level ridge parked over the western states. Also seeing some cumulus popping over the higher peaks and could see a light shower or more likely a little virga and push of wind late this afternoon into the early evening hours. However, coverage will be 10 percent or less with only the highest peaks impacted. Ridging starts breaking down on Saturday with high cloud increasing as we see a Pacific wave roll across the northern states.