Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
648 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 A warm and humid airmass remains over the Northland with most areas experiencing dewpoints in the lower to middle seventies. A weak low level trough was over north central Minnesota with the cold front much further to the west over the Dakotas. The cold front will make it to northern Minnesota Sunday morning and push through northern Wisconsin during the afternoon/evening. The showers/storms will end Sunday evening and cooler temperatures and lower humidity will move into northern Wisconsin as well. An upper trough will be over the Northland to start the period and it will move east through the week with an upper ridge building to the west.
941 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 A warm and humid airmass remains over the Northland with most areas experiencing dewpoints in the lower to middle seventies. A weak low level trough was over north central Minnesota with the cold front much further to the west over the Dakotas. The cold front will make it to northern Minnesota Sunday morning and push through northern Wisconsin during the afternoon/evening. The showers/storms will end Sunday evening and cooler temperatures and lower humidity will move into northern Wisconsin as well. An upper trough will be over the Northland to start the period and it will move east through the week with an upper ridge building to the west.
610 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2020 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated CWA on western fringe of large H5 ridge centered over southeast Kansas.
324 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2020 Satellite imagery and upper air analysis show an upper low to our north over Saskatchewan, with PV axis extending from northeast MT to central ID. Cold frontal passage occurred early today and we have advected drier/stabler air thru the day, with dew points down to the 30s in northern Rosebud and Custer counties. We will see building heights Sunday and Sunday night as the low to our north departs and ridge builds over the northern Rockies. Otherwise tomorrow will be dry with easterly winds, and temps just a few degrees cooler than normal (highs in mid- upper 80s).
Early afternoon WV/IR imagery showed a upper ridge from the northern Rockies to Baja CA, upper ridge centered over the south central Great Plains, and the eye of Hurricane Hanna just offshore of the south TX coast. Temperatures Sunday will be cooler behind the front with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s.
Combined with the influence of the mid level trough, this will lead to Sunday being the more convectively active/wetter day of the weekend.
1024 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020 Currently - A surface through lower level Atlantic ridge extends westward into the southeastern United States. A subtle inverted trough is riding westward across our area this evening. Short Term Update - Ridging will remain to our north as the lower level inverted trough continues to move westward then northwestward out of our area. While much of the island chain has been dry thus far this evening, rain chances will remain well above normal due to the migrating trough and presence of healthy convection upstream of the island chain. A subtle inverted trough riding westward within the southern periphery of an Atlantic ridge will move through Keys waters through the overnight hours.
Upper ridging more in place over the eastern CONUS and another very warm to hot day with sufficient moisture, will bring isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon. Similar high temperatures are forecast for Sun, rising into the lower 90s.
High pressure aloft currently due west of the Oregon coast will drift eastward tonight and settle smack dab over southern Oregon on Sunday. This combined with the thermal trof moving inland will make for a really hot Sunday afternoon along the I-5 corridor.
MA Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 91 72 92 73 / 30 30 10 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 91 72 91 73 / 20 30 10 40 10 Oak Ridge, TN 70 91 71 91 71 / 20 40 20 60 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 88 69 88 69 / 20 20 10 50 10.
Expect generally dry conditions on Sunday under continued high pressure. However, some moisture within the ridge may generate a few showers across along the Nevada border.
A longwave trough will continue to sit to our west through the weekend which will limit precipitation chances across the area as a whole. Convection this afternoon has been isolated at best as dry air intrusion has actually scoured some of the low end instability that was noted this morning across Mohave County. Expecting a similar set up for Sunday, with even more dry air to overcome so afternoon convection will be confined to the high crest of the Sierra.
The southern tier of counties should expect their winds to increase through the night at the cyclone tracks to the west as it slowly weakens. Storm surge has been, as always, a dangerous threat in this tropical cyclone. by mid-week, the upper level ridge will break down, allowing a weak trough to push across the central US and release the deep moisture that is trapped over the area.
STP Satellite imagery and upper air analysis show an upper low to our north over Saskatchewan, with PV axis extending from northeast MT to central ID. Cold frontal passage occurred early today and we have advected drier/stabler air thru the day, with dew points down to the 30s in northern Rosebud and Custer counties. We will see building heights Sunday and Sunday night as the low to our north departs and ridge builds over the northern Rockies. Otherwise tomorrow will be dry with easterly winds, and temps just a few degrees cooler than normal (highs in mid- upper 80s).
/issued 222 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020/ An upper ridge extends from the southern U. The hurricane will push into northern Mexico on Sunday and may contribute to rain/storms for the Lower Trans Pecos southward to the Rio Grande.
Potential for showers and thunderstorms decreases dramatically by mid week, as the upper high shifts over New Mexico, bringing warmer temperatures in its wake. Thick cloud cover and slightly cooler temps today has slowed initial storm development however near-term model guidance and MOS progs are very generous with storm coverage and QPF through tonight.
Monsoon moisture continues to stream south to north across much of New Mexico, helping to fire some more organized (yet scattered) storms in the higher elevation. For Sunday and Sunday night, a cold front will approach the Oklahoma Panhandle late Sunday afternoon. The cold front is slated to move across the OK Panhandle and most of the northern TX Panhandle Sunday night, with an increasing threat for showers and tstms across most of the area except the far southeast TX Panhandle.
1026 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020 High pressure and dry conditions will remain across the region through the rest of the weekend.
Overnight low temperatures will range from the mid 60s to the lower 70s.
513 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2020 Early afternoon WV/IR imagery showed a upper ridge from the northern Rockies to Baja CA, upper ridge centered over the south central Great Plains, and the eye of Hurricane Hanna just offshore of the south TX coast. Temperatures Sunday will be cooler behind the front with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s.
550 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2020 The latest water vapor images show a ridge over the central United States with an upper low over Saskatchewan. Temperatures will drop back to near average behind the cold front.
722 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020 High pressure and dry conditions will remain across the region through the rest of the weekend.
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated CWA on western fringe of large H5 ridge centered over southeast Kansas.
722 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020 Upper ridge axis has shifted just east of Upper Michigan. Weak cold front will slowly cross the area on Sunday but it still will be a very warm and humid day. Locations not see a cooling shower or storm will see temperatures not falling much below the low/mid 70s.
Clear skies are expected the next several days as high pressure settles into the region. -Mottice Upper low traversing east across central Sask today is expected to move across Manitoba Sunday.
144 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020 High pressure and dry conditions will remain across the region through the rest of the weekend.
257 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Upper ridge axis has shifted just east of Upper Michigan. Weak cold front will slowly cross the area on Sunday but it still will be a very warm and humid day. Locations not see a cooling shower or storm will see temperatures not falling much below the low/mid 70s.
An upper level ridge is centered over the Mississippi Valley region. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will move through the area from the northwest though the day today. Stronger storms are expected to develop later this afternoon across portions of northern Kansas along the cold front. An isolated strong or severe storm cannot be ruled out along and south of I-80 in closer proximity to the cold front.
1223 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Upper ridge axis has shifted just east of Upper Michigan. Weak cold front will slowly cross the area on Sunday but it still will be a very warm and humid day. Locations not see a cooling shower or storm will see temperatures not falling much below the low/mid 70s.
Currently have mention of the lower cigs for KSHV, KLFK, KGGG, and KELD. /Tonight/ As was the case 24 hrs ago, much of the convection has diminished with the loss of heating and bndry lyr stabilization, with subsidence beneath the expansive upper ridge extending from the Srn Plains into the Midwest/Mid-South region and TN Valley. However, the mosaic radar imagery indicates a weak mid level circulation forming along an inverted trough axis aloft from Hurricane Hanna now moving inland across Deep S TX, which should result in some convection redevelopment late over portions of SE into SW LA, which will drive sct convection NW into the region late Sunday morning and especially through the afternoon. Thus, have beefed up the sky grids, with the low stratus and high PW's in place again likely keeping min temps from falling much farther overnight.
402 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Weak high pressure will shift south of the area today. A cold front will move across the area mid-week. Mid-upper level ridge will crest over the area this afternoon leading to a strengthening subsidence inversion and quick erosion of low-level moisture.
Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is anchored in extreme eastern Colorado. With south winds tonight and lots of moisture in the air the overnight lows will struggle to fall into the low 70s.
220 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Another hot and humid afternoon is in the forecast as highs will climb into the lower to middle 90s across the region.
1135 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2020 Aviation Section Updated Dry, mainly sunny and seasonably warm conditions are expected Sunday for the entire region before much warmer temperatures develop for the week ahead.
357 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Satellite and radar this morning show convection continuing to fire (especially for the Hwy 14 corridor and areas east of I-29), mainly in tandem with the low level jet and warm air advection at 850mb. Greatest threats would be wind gusts to 60 mph and hail to quarter sized (although this will be a bit more difficult with the freezing level near 14kft).
Areas in the northern Tennessee Valley will likely see more widespread fog compared to areas south of I-40 due to rainfall from last evening and less of a dewpoint depression to overcome to saturate the lower levels. Another round of summertime showers and thunderstorms is once again expected under the ridge.
Nocturnal showers and a few storms are being driven inland from the gulf and into the coastal locations between Hanna and a ridge of high pressure that is centered over the southeast states.
403 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Under variably cloudy skies and east to southeast winds of 10 to 15 mph, temperatures are averaging in the lower 80 along the island chain. A deep western Atlantic tropospheric ridge axis reaching across the Northwest Caribbean Sea and the archipelago of Cuba today will lift northward and over our area for the next several days.
316 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020 High pressure and dry conditions will remain across the region through the rest of the weekend.
A cold front is situated right along our southern CWA border with neighboring FSD office and thunderstorms continue to develop/redevelop within a corridor running from said boundary back to some 40 or 50 miles to the northwest, likely closer to where the front is located at/around 850hpa. Temperatures in the post cold frontal drier air are cooling into the 60s on a north-northeast wind.
347 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Sfc cold front and 500 mb short wave moving into central MN at 08z taking the rain and t-storms with it.
For tomorrow, high pressure remains to our east while a trough remains to the west and a wave well to our north will cause the plume of moisture to 'tilt' more to the northeast.
The additional shower and thunderstorm coverage and cloud cover will produce a cooler day for most locations.
As for temperatures, with a late arrival of the cold front, afternoon highs are expected to reach the lower/mid 90s(F) again today. Rain cooled air combined with northerly winds behind the front will drop lows into the 60s(F) for much of the area tonight with the lower 70s(F) still possible in south central Kansas.
/Today through Saturday/ Very humid conditions continue across the forecast area early this morning and will persist through much of today, with temperatures once again rising into the lower 90s across about the southeastern half.
358 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020 The latest surface map features high pressure across the central and southern Appalachians, with a weak trough aligned west to east near the Ohio River. Aloft, high pressure remains centered across the southern Plains, with broad ridging having expanded to most locations east of the Mississippi River. Meanwhile, an upper level trough is spiraling towards the central Saskatchewan/Manitoba border, allowing for cyclonic flow across the northern Rockies/Plains region. The models remain in good agreement through the short term, with the upper level ridge to remain dominant east of the Mississippi River today.
219 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Water vapor shows upper trof over the northern Rockies/Plains with upper low over eastern SASK. At the surface, cold front has moved through all but far south central SD. Best focus for additional convection today will be across far south central SD invof the cold front, and across northeast WY where return flow will result in MLCAPE to around 500J/kg.
Convection may be a bit more widespread than yesterday as the upper ridge over the region begins to break down.
305 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the sern U. up into the upper Great Lakes this morning and a trough moving across the northern plains. This trough heads east into the upper Great Lakes by this evening and then starts to slowly dig southeast tonight.
Think the highest chances will be in the northern Tennessee Valley with less coverage and density of fog the further south you go. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 72 92 73 89 / 30 30 30 10 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 72 91 73 90 / 30 30 40 10 60 Oak Ridge, TN 91 71 91 71 90 / 30 30 60 20 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 69 88 69 88 / 30 30 50 10 60.
Upper ridging moves into the area, and east will will prevail for the most part, though with little moisture being supplied to the area.
Less convection/cloud cover over the northern portions will allow temperatures to warm into the lower 90s. While dewpoints in the low to mid 70s will send heat indices into the lower 100s in those areas, the expected convection will keep the duration of high heat minimal and preclude the need for outlooking heat stress in the HWO today.
1228 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Southwesterly flow aloft prevails across Nebraska due to an upper level ridge positioned off to the east over the Midwest. The low level jet will increase this evening, though current thinking is that it will focus east of the area. Beyond this weekend, an upper level ridge will amplify over the central CONUS and lead to a break in above average temperatures. Flow aloft will transition to more northwesterly with the building of the ridge, and should help to shunt the deeper moisture southward.
Temperatures were generally in the lower to middle 70s with readings a few degrees higher in the urban heat islands. Some patchy fog has already developed in some of the low-lying areas. For today, typical summertime pattern will remain in place as temperatures warm into the lower 90s. With expected dewpoints in the low 70s and temps in the 90s, this should yield afternoon CAPE values up in the 3000-3500 J/Kg range. Patchy fog will be possible once again with overnight lows in the lower 70s.
343 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Upper level ridge will hold firm for one more day, then will retrograde to the west for much of the upcoming week. Retrograding ridge and tough moving across far northern U.
1230 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020 A warm and humid airmass remains over the Northland with most areas experiencing dewpoints in the lower to middle seventies. A weak low level trough was over north central Minnesota with the cold front much further to the west over the Dakotas. The cold front will make it to northern Minnesota Sunday morning and push through northern Wisconsin during the afternoon/evening. The showers/storms will end Sunday evening and cooler temperatures and lower humidity will move into northern Wisconsin as well. An upper trough will be over the Northland to start the period and it will move east through the week with an upper ridge building to the west.
Southerly flow returned today resulting in about 5 degrees of warming from yesterday with the exception of places like Santa Cruz which was slightly cooler.
High pressure building into the region today. Confidence is low however with good consensus from the high-res solutions so kept forecast dry.
The additional shower and thunderstorm coverage and cloud cover will produce a cooler day for most locations. Additional ridging and warmer temperatures aloft, combined with less low and mid level moisture, will limit coverage of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, and they will be along and west of Interstate 25. Warmer temperatures will result with less cloud cover.
Much of our QPF forecast for this afternoon into tonight will be the timing of the cold front on its way to our CWA today. Not a lot of support for severe weather here, other than the cold front available as a focus for convective development. Upper level flow will be progressive and zonal toward the beginning of the work week and become more troughy in nature by mid-late week, keeping us on the cooler side.
We may see a few more clouds today as low-level moisture continues to increase, but low-level temperatures (925 mb, 850 mb) are modeled to be slightly warmer this afternoon compared to yesterday, so high temperatures will likely be similar to yesterday's. Way up north, an upper trough over the Canadian Prairies and the Northern (American) Plains moves slowly east.
Ahead of this front, another sultry day is expected with highs in the low 90s and surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. A cold front will move through the area late this afternoon which will lead to widespread rain showers and some isolated thunderstorms. I did not include the lower ceilings in the TAFs yet as confidence was low on timing.
Ridge axis will settle southward overnight veering winds from southerly 10-15 kt this evening to W/SW around 10 kt by sunrise Monday.
Another hot and humid afternoon is in the forecast as highs will climb into the lower to middle 90s across the region. This pattern change is in response to the flattening of the upper level ridge.
850 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020 High pressure will maintain dry and warmer weather into the early portion of Monday.
After midnight, will taper off PoPs as we lose the diurnal element, and the front starts to push south of the better overall mean flow with the H5 trof up across the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest.
Expect highs in the lower 90s with showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon and evening hours. The ridge over the area gives way to a deeper trough that will build into the Great Lakes late Monday.
635 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the sern U. up into the upper Great Lakes this morning and a trough moving across the northern plains. This trough heads east into the upper Great Lakes by this evening and then starts to slowly dig southeast tonight.
97 Upper level ridging will continue to build across the region into at least Monday, helping to drive dry weather conditions due to large scale subsidence along with warmer temperatures with the associated height rises.
Temperatures were generally in the lower to middle 70s with readings a few degrees higher in the urban heat islands. Some patchy fog has already developed in some of the low-lying areas. For today, typical summertime pattern will remain in place as temperatures warm into the lower 90s. With expected dewpoints in the low 70s and temps in the 90s, this should yield afternoon CAPE values up in the 3000-3500 J/Kg range. Patchy fog will be possible once again with overnight lows in the lower 70s. By Monday morning, upper level ridging begins to break down as a closed low moves into Ontario extending a trough axis southward through the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley. 00 inches with surface dew points in the low to mid 70s.
/Issued 406 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020/ Weakness in the ridging aloft continues today. However, western Atlantic ridging will begin to back build over the CWA on Monday. In the higher elevations, storms could become locked on the higher terrain.
1006 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020 High pressure will maintain dry and warmer weather into the early portion of Monday.
900 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020 High pressure and dry conditions will remain across the region through the rest of the weekend.
432 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020 The trough continues its trek across central Canada, leaving building ridging across the Rockies during the next 48 hours. This will lead to another warm day today, while limiting any rainfall convection to the higher elevations of the Winds and Absarokas. The ridge continues to stretch across the central third of the state, setting up southwesterly flow for western WY for Monday. Central WY areas more under the ridge will see warmer temperatures a few degrees above Sunday highs. Areas to the west of the ridge axis will see slowly increasing moisture starting to feed into the region, helping improve chances for showers and thunderstorms for the mountain ranges of western WY, along with areas in the vicinity of the Uinta range in NE UT, during the later afternoon.
Upper ridging moves into the area, and east will will prevail for the most part, though with little moisture being supplied to the area. Hence RH's will still drop to the low 20s, and temperatures, while again in the mid to upper 80s today, will climb back to the low 90s for Monday.
/Issued 343 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020/ Upper level ridge will hold firm for one more day, then will retrograde to the west for much of the upcoming week. Retrograding ridge and tough moving across far northern U. will allow a slow moving cold front to move through the Central Plains to near OK/KS border by Monday afternoon. The front will encounter a very moist airmass characterized by Precip H2O values in excess of 2 inches with weak flow in the low to mid levels. There will be some heavy rainfall potential given the high moisture content and slow moving cells, however the low level jet support appears to be lacking for widespread heavy rainfall and antecedent conditions are dry at the moment. The ridge will amplify to our west mid to late week with better established NW flow aloft.