Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1142 AM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Moisture will continue to be drawn north ahead of a 500 mb trough moving through the Great Basin this morning. About Noon the Pacific trough will be over northwest Colorado and precipitation areas associated directly with it will phase with the precipitation over CO. The active pattern with progressive moderately strong troughs passing through ever few days will continue the rest of this week and through the weekend. Wednesday and Wednesday night will be dry with increasing southwest flow aloft and the next trough strengthens over the Pacific Northwest.
354 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Tonight through Wednesday: expect mainly dry conditions through the period for most of the ArkLaMiss as high pressure ridging remains across the region.
429 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Analysis along with water vapor imagery continues to show a mid and upper level ridge extending poleward from the central Gulf to the Hudson Bay region. In addition there is an upper level trough located over the western Atlantic and extends into the northern Bahamas. This trough is slowly making it's way southward and there is considerably dry air accompanying this trough. At the surface and low levels, a high pressure remains over the north central Gulf.
Precipitation should diminish as it pushes further east and encounters the higher pressure.
Upper level low seen on water vapor imagery can be seen over extreme southeastern Idaho into northwestern Wyoming. Had 69 mph reported at Halleck Ridge and 58 mph at Dana Ridge WYDOT sites.
Otherwise, it is another hot day with 2pm temps in the low to mid 90s across the southwest half of the region. Slightly cooler air has filtered into our northeast, but it is still above normal for mid September. A 500mb ridge will maintain a firm grip on our region through the short term. ridge weakens due to a trof over the Atlantic, moving away from the coast, and a more progressive flow out west as one trof moves from the Rockies toward the Great Lakes, and a second digs in over the southwest U.
246 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Updated at 215 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Upper ridge will remain firmly in place through the short term leading to a continuation of warm, dry weather. Will go warmer than guidance once again tomorrow for MaxT, with highs around 90. Updated at 235 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 A rather stagnant, amplified upper level ridge will remain in place through much of the week across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
Broad upper troughing to our west will slowly transition east over the coming days helping to enhance lift across the area. Isolated showers and storms over the higher terrain today will become more scattered and spread east by midweek.
Moisture will begin to move into north-central Idaho and is expected to become widespread overnight, ahead of the next trough. The main focus for rain is expected to shift to Lemhi County and west-central/southwest Montana beginning Wednesday night as the low pressure center organizes.
1241 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period as high pressure dominates over the region. This is result of upper level high pressure remaining overhead. the upper ridge extends north into the NRN MS River Valley Region. with a trough over the WRN CONUS. While the upper ridge overhead will remain the dominant feature across the Natural State. and the upper level ridging over AR should remain.
1123 AM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Current surface map places low across eastern Montana with trof extending into eastern Wyoming into eastern Colorado. Deep mixing will result in gusty west-southwest winds behind the surface trof.
415 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 High pressure will keep warm and dry conditions with comfortable humidity across the area.
318 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 We are pretty much on track with temperatures this afternoon with most locations already in the lower to mid 90s. The upper ridge currently over the region will build further to the east as moisture increases ahead of a deepening trough over the western US.
159 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019 19z surface analysis had low over northeast MT with warm front into western IA and dry line/trough through the Black Hills into eastern WY. Cold front extends southwest from the low into western WY. Dry gusty southwest winds occurring between cold front/trough. Guidance uncertain with strength of wind as cold front whips through late this afternoon/early this evening.
719 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 VFR forecast for the next 24 hours as high pressure brings limited cloud cover, and light winds.
Updated at 215 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Upper ridge will remain firmly in place through the short term leading to a continuation of warm, dry weather. Will go warmer than guidance once again tomorrow for MaxT, with highs around 90. Updated at 235 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 A rather stagnant, amplified upper level ridge will remain in place through much of the week across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
517 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019 19z surface analysis had low over northeast MT with warm front into western IA and dry line/trough through the Black Hills into eastern WY. Cold front extends southwest from the low into western WY. Dry gusty southwest winds occurring between cold front/trough. Guidance uncertain with strength of wind as cold front whips through late this afternoon/early this evening.
High pressure will remain in place across the area tonight with overnight lows dropping into the mid to upper 60s beneath partly cloudy skies.
557 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 A strengthening ridge of high pressure will provide dry weather and above-normal temperatures through the end of the week. Temperatures will be locally cooler in valleys with a good radiational cooling setup, but higher along ridgetops where lower levels winds will remain elevated overnight and keep things mixed up near the surface.
638 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 We are pretty much on track with temperatures this afternoon with most locations already in the lower to mid 90s. The upper ridge currently over the region will build further to the east as moisture increases ahead of a deepening trough over the western US.
/28/ Tonight through Wednesday: expect mainly dry conditions through the period for most of the ArkLaMiss as high pressure ridging remains across the region.
826 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 The mid level ridge has shifted east compared to yesterday, and is now centered over northern Arkansas. To the south of the ridge, now TD Imelda is spinning near Houston and is moving slowly north. We are too far north to experience any influence from the tropical system yet, thus influence from nearby ridging aloft will provide for a quiet and mostly clear night across the region. High pressure currently remains in control, but some changes on the way later in the week with cooler temperatures and increased rain chances.
The rest of this week will bring continued warmer than normal temperatures with little or no rainfall.
808 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 High pressure will keep warm and dry conditions with comfortable humidity across the area.
With upper ridging in place across much of the southern and central parts of Conus, with the exception of the area near Imelda, hot values are still expected.
Mostly sunny skies are expected Wednesday with high temperatures warming into the lower to middle 80s.
High pressure across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will keep central Indiana warm and dry until this weekend. Rain chances will increase over the weekend as a cold front approaches. Thin high clouds continue to drift across the area this evening as high pressure reigns. Ridging aloft and at the surface will maintain dry weather overnight with just periodic cirrus tracking across the region.
715 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 High pressure extends from the central Great Lakes across Ontario into Quebec and maintains a favorable influence on aviation conditions tonight. * None Upper level ridge axis (588 DAM at 500 MB) will continue to be in firm control through the work week (dry conditions), despite folding over and becoming more positive tilted. In Addition, with the ridge axis centered over Central Lower Michigan, some mid clouds (700 MB) also look to sneak in from the east, which also may help limit fog potential.
High pressure sprawled out from the Arctic to Greenland to Quebec to PA and into the MS Valley. A little surprising that it won't be cooler with that fetch/feed. The dry weather pattern continues with high pressure remaining firmly in control to the north and west of Humberto.
High pressure will continue to bring dry conditions and light winds overnight. Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 91 68 86 / 10 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 89 66 84 / 10 20 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 68 90 66 84 / 0 20 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 82 58 80 / 10 10 0 0.
402 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 The area is currently sandwiched between freshly formed Tropical Storm Imelda and dry high pressure to the northeast.
242 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Low pressure over the West will bring cooler weather this week, with more extensive coastal clouds during nights and mornings.
942 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 A strengthening ridge of high pressure will provide dry weather and above-normal temperatures through the end of the week. Temperatures will be locally cooler in valleys with a good radiational cooling setup, but higher along ridgetops where lower levels winds will remain elevated overnight and keep things mixed up near the surface.
High pressure will keep conditions dry and skies mostly clear overnight.
614 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Southerly winds have been very gusty this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. The upper trough will roll into ND on Wednesday. Cooler temps are expected behind the fropa tonight and Wednesday with highs only in the upper 70s, though this is still a few degrees above average.
1056 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 High pressure will keep warm and dry conditions with comfortable humidity across the area.
While overall instability is on the low side, high based convection is being aided by strong effective deep layer shear of 40-50 kts and the steep lapse rate plume. The much above temperatures that were associated with a strong h500 ridge over the central and northern plains will be coming to an end. Highs Wednesday will be in the lower to mid 70s.
658 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 A strengthening ridge of high pressure will provide dry weather and above-normal temperatures through the end of the week. Temperatures will be locally cooler in valleys with a good radiational cooling setup, but higher along ridgetops where lower levels winds will remain elevated overnight and keep things mixed up near the surface.
Temperatures will not be as high as today, as we expect highs in the lower 90s across the interior and upper 80s along the coast. This surge in winds will be the effect of a high pressure building to our north and increasing the local pressure gradient.
Wednesday's forecast is still expected to be cool and damp under the influence of the approaching trough. Freezing level 8-9kft.
615 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 High pressure continues to dominate the region, providing VFR conditions throughout the period with light winds predominantly from the E/SE.
High pressure centered over eastern Canada will wedge southward down the U. eastern seaboard tonight pushing a backdoor cold front into the area on Wednesday. Breezy ne winds and low level convergence will result in scattered showers spreading south along the coast Wednesday morning along with cooler temperatures. Onshore winds are expected to weaken slightly overnight before strengthening again out of the northeast with the passage of a cold front from the north on Wednesday.
We remain under the influence of a ridge extending from the northeast to the central Gulf of Mexico. The entrainment of dry air at the low levels is easily visible in the 00Z sounding, quite different from this morning.
A cool upper level low will maintain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms through Wednesday.
Dry conditions overnight and temperatures in the lower 70s expected. /28/ Prior discussion below: Tonight through Wednesday: expect mainly dry conditions through the period for most of the ArkLaMiss as high pressure ridging remains across the region.
342 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Latest regional surface analysis indicates weak low pressure over SW GA as backdoor front begins to move in from the Carolinas.
Out west a deep upper trough continues to move on shore across the PACNW while across the Texas Gulf Coast a tropical system moves inland and further east high pressure aloft remains settled over the remainder of the Gulf Coast.
High pressure continues to dominate the region, providing VFR conditions throughout the period with light winds predominantly from the E/SE. Today Through Thursday Its the same old story day after day, high pressure at the surface and aloft is firmly in place across the region. High pressure is leading to large scale subsidence over the Mid-MS Valley resulting in temperatures running well above average for this time of year. In fact, temperatures this afternoon are ranging from the lower to upper 90s. Heading into Wednesday, high pressure will remain in control of the weather however will begin to slide east just a bit. Aloft, ridging translates east as tropical moisture moves northward around the periphery of high pressure. High temperatures on Thursday will remain well above average however will be a few degrees cooler than previous days.
420 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019 A cold front will push south of the forecast area early today. The temperature guidance was close with highs mainly in the lower 80s. Further drying should occur tonight with ridging building into the area from the north. Mixing should help hold up temperatures but it will be cooler than what we have experienced of late. Cloud coverage will be limited to cirrus off of the higher terrain in northwest upper level flow.
High pressure extending from Quebec southwestward into the Midwest is providing mostly clear skies and light winds across central Illinois early this morning. Lows tonight will drop into the lower to middle 60s under mostly clear skies.
Upper level ridging will be the dominant feature through the end of the work week, keeping warm and dry conditions in place across central Indiana. As the ridge breaks down and a frontal system moves into the area over the weekend, chances for showers and storms will return to the forecast.
218 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Strong high pressure at the surface and aloft will keep the next couple days dry and hot.
238 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Current surface map places low in southern Manitoba, with cold front in the eastern Dakotas. High pressure located across Wyoming. Western CONUS trof moves into the Rockies on Thursday.
/issued 1021 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019/ High pressure remains over the area with mostly clear skies across the Mid-South. Temperatures are in the low 70s to low 80s. Highs tomorrow will be in the low-to-upper 90s. Tomorrow, the ridge that has been centered over the area is expected to start to shift a bit to the East and thicknesses will fall slightly.
358 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019 High pressure will build to our north and is expected to dominate over the Northeast and mid-Atlantic region the remainder of the work week. This high will allow for dry conditions and cooler than average temperatures. The high will settle to our south this weekend. High pressure will build to the north. Temperatures today will rise into the 70s, then fall into the lower 50s tonight.
Flow aloft will become SW in response to the digging trough of low pressure over the NW U.
300 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Hot conditions are again expected today as that upper level ridge holds strong over the lower and middle Mississippi Valley regions. Highs will once again be in the lower to middle 90s. The upper level ridge will hold for one more day with hot conditions again expected for Thursday.
This will occur as southwest flow aloft slowly improves downstream of a deepening trough moving into the Intermountain West. Beyond that, an upward trend in moisture, instability and wind shear will occur toward the end of the week as the western trough approaches.
Dry conditions are forecast with lows falling into the lower 70s. Hot conditions will continue through tomorrow as the region remains largely influenced by high pressure. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s Wednesday, but slightly cooler on Thursday behind the front.
Trended toward the warmer MAV guidance for highs on Wednesday.
1251 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019 A strengthening ridge of high pressure will provide dry weather and above-normal temperatures into the weekend. The amplifying upper ridge will continue to slowly trudge eastward, with the axis creeping into the middle Ohio Valley by Thursday night.
High pressure shifted to northeast of the area has allowed for an easterly down slope through the day resulting in some slightly higher temperatures and a dry surface layer. By tonight, the clear skies in place will begin to see some cloud cover developing towards dawn as the high pressure shifts further east allowing some return flow to bring some moisture into the I-75 corridor and west.
/Issued 826 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019/ The mid level ridge has shifted east compared to yesterday, and is now centered over northern Arkansas. To the south of the ridge, now TD Imelda is spinning near Houston and is moving slowly north. We are too far north to experience any influence from the tropical system yet, thus influence from nearby ridging aloft will provide for a quiet and mostly clear night across the region. High pressure currently remains in control, but some changes on the way later in the week with cooler temperatures and increased rain chances.
159 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019 High pressure will keep warm and dry conditions with comfortable humidity across the area.
1049 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019 19z surface analysis had low over northeast MT with warm front into western IA and dry line/trough through the Black Hills into eastern WY. Cold front extends southwest from the low into western WY. Dry gusty southwest winds occurring between cold front/trough. Guidance uncertain with strength of wind as cold front whips through late this afternoon/early this evening.
357 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019 A strengthening ridge of high pressure will provide dry weather and above-normal temperatures into the weekend. The amplifying upper ridge will continue to slowly trudge eastward, with the axis creeping into the middle Ohio Valley by Thursday night.
Model guidance shows a ridge over the eastern half of the U. and a trough over the western U. The GFS moves the trough eastward faster than the ECMWF.
* None Upper level ridge axis (588 DAM at 500 MB) will continue to be in firm control through the work week (dry conditions), despite folding over and becoming more positive tilted. In Addition, with the ridge axis centered over Central Lower Michigan, some mid clouds (700 MB) also look to sneak in from the east, which also may help limit fog potential. The week of high pressure and dry conditions will come to an end this weekend as an upper level trough swings through the central Plains sending a low pressure system just north of the Great Lakes and a cold front through the region. It will shift to the central east coast over the weekend as the longwave ridge folds into the region.
905 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Low pressure over the West will bring cooler weather this week, with more extensive coastal clouds during nights and mornings.
Due to the influence of the high pressure over the southeast VFR TAFs are expected to continue.
A mean long wave western trough begins to dig into the Four Corners region of the southwest. In turn, a progressive ridge will pop up over western and central North Dakota and move east by tonight. The much above temperatures that were associated with a strong mid-level ridge over the Central and Northern Plains will be coming to an end as highs this afternoon will be in the low to mid 70s. As progressive ridging drifts east of the region early Thursday, the mean longwave trough will migrate east by the weekend from the western US. Low level moisture will return into the region ahead of this system, setting up a slow moving cold front/baroclinic zone across the Northern Plains.
The main feature of the short term will be a backdoor cold front droping southward on the east side of the mountains through today. The forecast for today will follow a drier and warmer solution than what the models indicate, with only slight chance PoPs in SW NC and the Smokies through the morning. The building high pressure ridge extending SW along the mountains will bring lower dewpoints to the area tonight, allowing low temps in the mid/upper 50s in SW VA and NE TN.
328 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 (Today and Tonight) Early this morning, West Central Texas was stuck between two weather systems: Tropical Depression Imelda, moving northward into East Texas, and a broad area of low pressure developing over the Four Corners just southeast of a strong upper trough. These two systems will result in a relatively weak area of high pressure for at least this morning, leading to light and variable winds for most locations.
1138 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 We are pretty much on track with temperatures this afternoon with most locations already in the lower to mid 90s. The upper ridge currently over the region will build further to the east as moisture increases ahead of a deepening trough over the western US.
Looking aloft, H500 ridging remains in place across the southern US with the ridge axis extending northeastward toward the Great Lakes. With TD Imelda unable to make quick progress northward given high pressure in place, another dry day is expected across the area. The overall progress of rainfall will be fairly slow, given the continued influence of high pressure aloft and at the surface. Temperatures may be a few degrees cooler on Thursday, but humid conditions will persist.
1230 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Southerly winds have been very gusty this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. The upper trough will roll into ND on Wednesday. Cooler temps are expected behind the fropa tonight and Wednesday with highs only in the upper 70s, though this is still a few degrees above average.
1021 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 High pressure remains over the area with mostly clear skies across the Mid-South. Temperatures are in the low 70s to low 80s. Highs tomorrow will be in the low-to-upper 90s. Tomorrow, the ridge that has been centered over the area is expected to start to shift a bit to the East and thicknesses will fall slightly.
A wind surge is expected to build in from the northeast as the ridge along the CONUS east coast builds into the area.
High pressure stretches from the northeastern United States, southwest into the Gulf of Mexico. A trough axis lingers to the south of Humberto and straddles the Windward Passage. Skies are mostly sunny, with temperatures in the mid 80s and dewpoints in the lower 70s. High pressure will consolidate over the southeastern United States this afternoon and tonight.
425 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 North to northwesterly winds, in association with a cold front that moved through the area overnight, will continue through mid- afternoon. Winds will then begin to transition back out of the south to southeast as weak high pressure builds over the region, this will also allow for moisture to begin streaming back into the area.
A cold upper trough is moving towards the coast this morning, and the instability associated with the cold air aloft is producing thunderstorms over the waters. Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees below normal for this time of year, though confidence is only moderate on staying in the low 60s in places like the Rogue Valley. Drying, northerly flow will follow the upper trough Thursday as it pushes eastward out of the forecast area.
Outside of sparse high cloud spilling over midlevel ridge axis, low cloud fraction is anticipated throughout the period.