Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
235 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021 Deep layer ridging from the Atlantic stretching across the northern half of the state pivots up into the south US Mon. An upper low spinning across the Mid-Mississippi Valley lifts up toward the Great Lakes while an upper low/trough south of the Florida Keys moves west into the Gulf of Mexico. From Tue through next Sun: The center of the deep layer ridging remains anchored off the Mid-Atlantic coast with an axis initially reaching across the southeastern states that rotates back over FL and the Gulf around midweek. Another upper low/trough forms near the Bahamas by the weekend. High pressure across the waters lifts into GA by Mon and resides there at least through midweek with prevailing winds becoming east or southeast.
Upper high centered over southern portions of Nevada and California with extension of the high building north and west of Colorado today. Temperatures will be a bit warmer today as 700 mb temperatures increase to +13c which will translate of 3-5 degrees of warming from yesterday. The trajectory of the high pressure ridge expected to carry the smoke from the west and right into Colorado.
Lows should range a touch cooler, in the upper 60s to around 70.
/Issued 1117 AM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021/ Animation of water vapor imagery indicates the mid/upper level low over swrn MO, with a trough extending into nrn TX. The latest surface analysis indicates the cold front has pushed into sern OK. Much of the area will see a mix of some sun and clouds this afternoon, as extensive low clouds develop under the mid level trough with diurnal heating. Have made some adjustments to sky condition, and added mention of thunder area wide, as instability develops under the mid level trough.
118 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021 Early this morning, some weakening scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were located along a southeastward moving cold front extending from far southwest Missouri into the Rolla area, generally south of the I-44 corridor. Lows this morning will bottom out in the low to mid 60s. A much cooler day is in store for today as a closed upper level low churns overhead. High temperatures will top out in the 70s for the majority of the area, though south central Missouri could touch the low 80s. Lingering overnight cloud cover tonight will keep lows relatively more mild in the low to mid 60s. The upper level low will barely budge on Monday, leaving a similar pattern of cool and cloudy weather over the CWA similar to Sunday.
Temperatures tonight will remain cool though, as the lack of sunshine today has not allowed us to heat much through the day and the remaining clouds will help to moderate the temperatures into the low 60s through much of the area. Tomorrow, the closed upper low begins to slide northeast and out of our area slowly. Along with drier conditions, clouds will start to diminish, leading to warmer temperatures throughout the area.
838 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021 Atlantic high pressure will extend across the area through this weekend. Atlantic high pressure at the surface and aloft will prevail through the period, maintaining typical July weather. High pressure at the surface and aloft will maintain control of the local weather late week into the weekend. This Evening and Tonight: High pressure across the western Atlantic will extend across local waters through the night while an upper lvl low approaches the Florida coast late.
First, the upper-level low pressure system spinning over the Midwest today did in fact kick off an MCS late last night. East Coast, but drier mid-level and low-level air is being advected southeastward behind the cold front that stretches from North Texas toward the Ohio River Valley. As we head into the overnight hours and tomorrow daytime, it's likely that this trough axis will keep best rain chances south and east of the Natchez Trace.
High pressure over the region lifts northward and remains there through the next several days, with southeast winds continuing except for a sea breeze near the coast each afternoon.
Upper ridge extending from the eastern Dakotas across MN and northern WI and into Ontario has meant persistent subsidence and hence the areas of surface based visibility reductions. Elevated smoke, this time from the western wildfires, will remain an issue as a short wave trough approaches from the northern Plains and funnels a ribbon of smoke eastward around the top of the western ridge.
1044 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021 Typical summer time pattern continues with the Bermuda High will ridging into the forecast area during the week. Pressure ridge offshore extending into the coastal plain. Weak trough across the Midlands into east central Ga. Moderately strong southwest low-level moisture transport will continue especially in the west around ridge. Convection currently strongest along the lower Savannah River area in the Low Country near area of surface convergence. Temperatures remain around seasonal average with highs in the low 90s and lows in low to mid 70s. Bermuda high will be ridging into the region with the upper level ridge offshore and an upper level trough digging into the MS River Valley.
747 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021 Showers and thunderstorms appear promising today and tomorrow as a low pressure system stalls to our west. Isolated showers will remain a possibility this evening as we continue to reside in the warm sector of a mature low pressure system.
740 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021 A strong Bermuda high pressure over the western Atlantic will bring a broad, warm, and moist southerly flow across NC through midweek. The dominant Bermuda high pressure offshore will keep a moist SSW flow across central NC through the night. There is a chance of stratus anywhere, but the higher probabilities are in the east between 500 and 900 AM. Lows in the lower to mid 70s. Central NC will remain situated between the upper low to the west and the Bermuda high to the east on Monday. Monday night, the low to the west begins to lift north toward the Great Lakes. With little change in airmass, there will again be the chance for some low stratus to develop Monday night and lows should again bottom out in the low to mid 70s.
Weak surface convergence and continued troughing over the Southern Plains may be sufficient for additional thunderstorm development Monday afternoon a little farther north along the I-20 corridor so we'll have some 20% PoPs to account for this. /Issued 222 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021/ /Monday Evening Onward/ Quieter weather is expected for much of the work week as an upper level ridge shifts slightly east into North and Central Texas.
Closed upper low over northern Missouri tonight will begin to open up on Monday, but only lift out as far as Wisconsin. With the trof axis extending south into Arkansas, this will maintain a deep and very moist southerly flow, supporting numerous showers and thunderstorms east of the Mississippi, especially on Monday afternoon. This mirrors the SE extent of the Slight Risk in WPC's excessive rainfall forecast and seems reasonable, but it's toward the lower end of impacts yet, so will not go with a Flood Watch at this time.
442 PM MDT Sun Jul 11 2021 Weak ridging continues to be the primary pattern. The weak ridging/zonal flow continues through tomorrow night. This wave will generally have the impact of producing peak heating showers and thunderstorms, starting along the higher elevations of the western mountains, before drifting east and northeast later in the afternoon.
The parent upper low remains parked over MO. Higher PoPs will stay in NW AL, closer to the low and where storms were less widespread earlier today. The rest of the forecast showing lows in the low 70s is in good shape.
615 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021 (This evening through Monday) Slightly drier air has filtered south in the wake of the cold front that brought storms to much of the area last night.
A PV max was embedded within the trough and was over northern MO. Cooler temps aloft combined with July insolation lead to bands of showers and isolated lightning strikes thru the afternoon. These showers are thanks to a nearby upper low spinning away across central MO. One thing to look out for today (and tends to be common with a nearby upper low) would be the potential for brief funnels to develop within stronger updraft cores where stretching of vorticity can be maximized.
643 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021 Thunderstorms near KLBB and KPVW are expected to diminish early this evening with much cooler air and minimal surface instability. /issued 155 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021/ Upper level high pressure system remains parked over southern Nevada this afternoon keeping the FA in north-northeasterly flow aloft. Tomorrow the 597 dm upper level high to our west will expand back towards the area as south to southwesterly surface winds return. This will ultimately lead to drier and slightly warmer conditions to start the work week.
957 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021 Offshore high pressure will build over the region through most of this week. Typical muggy summer-time lows, mid 70s across most of the area, low 70s in cooler spots like Duplin and inland Onslow county. At the SFC, high pressure offshore expands further westward over the NC coast.
336 PM MDT Sun Jul 11 2021 A cold front will sweep through the area this evening.
The smoke moving southward, down the front of the upper ridge, into Colorado and our CWA is extensive. It was a tad warmer today than yesterday; about 3 degrees F. Upper level ridge off to the west will slowly shift east over the next 24 hours. This will bring warmer temperatures for Monday. Precipitable water values will increase to around a half inch over the higher terrain. Storms will struggle to survive once they move off the higher terrain, so will have slight chance PoPs for the Urban Corridor and keep the plains dry.
801 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021 Typical summer time pattern continues with the Bermuda High will ridging into the forecast area during the week. Pressure ridge offshore extending into the coastal plain. Weak trough across the Midlands into east central Ga. Moderately strong southwest low-level moisture transport will continue especially in the west around ridge. Convection currently strongest along the lower Savannah River area in the Low Country near area of surface convergence. Temperatures remain around seasonal average with highs in the low 90s and lows in low to mid 70s. Bermuda high will be ridging into the region with the upper level ridge offshore and an upper level trough digging into the MS River Valley.
/issued 303 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): We are finally getting a break from the rain and flooding! At 500 mb, high pressure from the Gulf and southwestern US will continue to build across deep south Texas allowing drier air to filter into the region. At the surface, high pressure over the Atlantic and low pressure over northern Mexico will allow for more moderate southeasterly winds, especially along the coast, into early evening.
Monday the high will move a little further east over southern Nevada putting southeast Arizona under northeasterly mid-level flow. Hi-res models show a similar set up to today with storms forming over the White Mountains then moving off the rim into the lower deserts. Strong to severe wind gusts will be a hazard as the storms move off the rim into the lower deserts.
622 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021 Offshore high pressure will build over the region through most of this week. At the SFC, high pressure offshore expands further westward over the NC coast.
A vertically stacked low pressure system continues to drift eastward this afternoon across northern Missouri. Some scattered wrap-around showers are located across far-eastern Kansas on the backside of the low. Given cool air aloft behind the upper low, there is just enough instability with these that a rumble of thunder or two can't be ruled out over the afternoon. Farther west temperatures are a bit warmer, but are still barely pushing 80. Overnight, skies should gradually clear as the upper low pulls away. Temperatures will drop into the low 60s and even some upper 50s, a refreshing night for this time of year. Tomorrow, light winds and mostly sunny skies will continue as surface ridging moves in behind the upper low. Temperatures will stay cooler than average, with highs in the 80s across the entire area Monday.
607 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021 Atlantic high pressure will extend across the area through this weekend. Lows will range from the lower 70s well inland to around 80 at the beaches and Downtown Charleston. Atlantic high pressure at the surface and aloft will prevail through the period, maintaining typical July weather. High pressure at the surface and aloft will maintain control of the local weather late week into the weekend. This Evening and Tonight: High pressure across the western Atlantic will extend across local waters through the night while an upper lvl low approaches the Florida coast late.
Activity starting to fire up along a weak surface boundary just to the south of the actual front (pre-frontal trough or outflow?) and we could see these storms make it near/into our northern terminals in the next 2 to 4 hours (providing they don't fall apart by then). Rain and storm chances should gradually diminish by late Monday morning as high pressure builds in. Monday's high will be a few degrees cooler than Sunday, but still warm.
GOES water vapor shows well defined upper low this afternoon across NW MO with a slow meander to the southwest. Moisture streaming northeast of this low into our local area with weak short waves moving through the mean southwest flow. Upper low to begin a slow drift northeast over next 24 hours and will eventually get absorbed by a short wave trough currently along the western US/Canada border that will be moving eastward and becoming a bit sharper with time. Models in good agreement on this scenario and have also slowed the eastward progression of residual trough that is left after phasing. Too much uncertainty on this low chance condition so no watches planned with this issuance.
Convection was slow to start, but as a few stronger cells start to move into the higher PW airmass south of the rim, there is room to grow.
538 PM MDT Sun Jul 11 2021 A weak upper trough will cross the area late tonight into early Monday. By early Monday afternoon, a cold front will advance southeastward across the area, with isolated showers and storms possible by late afternoon over the Black Hills.
Scattered-to-numerous showers and thunderstorms will return Monday afternoon and evening, moving toward the south and southwest at 15 to 25 mph off the high terrain. Strong moisture advection on deep-layer southeast flow forced dewpoints into the low 70s across southeast NM this morning where a few severe storms w/ torrential rainfall have occurred. Destabilization will continue farther north and west where strong afternoon heating and orographic lift fires storms along the high terrain.
631 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021 Upper low is currently situated over northern MO with a vort lobe swinging southeast across eastern KS. Meanwhile, upper ridging remains planted over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, upper ridging extends from the Upper Mississippi Valley down into the OK Panhandle. Diurnally driven showers should rapidly diminish with loss of heating while some clouds may lingler across portions of eastern Kansas into the evening hours the the mid/upper trough begins to slowly move away from the area.
642 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021 Summary: Wildfire smoke over the region will keep temps a little cooler than otherwise expected for Monday.
1033 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021 Currently - A surface through lower level Atlantic ridge extends westward across Florida and continues through the Gulf of Mexico. Despite a mid and upper level low moving northwestward through the northern Bahamas with a subtle lower level reflection, lower level moisture has decreased quite a bit with the arrival of some drier air. Short Term Update - The mid and upper level low will continue to roll northwestward towards the central Florida coast through the overnight and any lower level reflection will wash out as the upper level low moves further into the ridge. The ridge will maintain moderate easterly breezes, likely a touch of freshening. An Atlantic ridge across Florida will maintain easterly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
Elevated smoke, this time from the western wildfires, will remain issue as a short wave trough approaches from the northern Plains and funnels a ribbon of smoke eastward around the top of the western ridge.
These storms have been moving off of the higher terrain in New Mexico throughout the day. An upper level trough with associated low is beginning to become closed off over Missouri this afternoon. Temperatures on Monday are expected to be slightly warmer than today, with forecasted highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Showers and thunderstorms may form across the higher terrain to the west and move into the area again tomorrow. The chance for storms is low, however, if they do move off of the higher terrain, they will most likely be confined to the far western counties tomorrow afternoon. For Monday night, the upper level flow is forecast to remain from the north northwest courtesy of an upper level ridge of high pressure over the Desert Southwest and an upper level trof of low pressure across the midwest states.
903 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021 An upper level low pressure system remains over Missouri this evening. Scattered bands of showers and thunderstorms are occurring across the region rotating around the upper low.
416 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021 Summary: Wildfire smoke over the region will keep temps a little cooler than otherwise expected for Monday.
625 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021 Quiet weather will continue across central and western Nebraska through Monday with the upper ridge slowly losing amplitude as a series of short waves crest the ridge. Highs on Monday will be noticeable warmer though dew points will lag a bit so humidity will not be oppressive. Any modest destabilization will be capped enough to inhibit convective development through Monday, though an isolated shower or thunderstorm may be possible Monday night as the low level wind field amplifies and enhances forcing with the environment continues to moisten.
The main wx feature in the short term forecast continues to be an upper level low pressure system over Missouri.
644 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021 500 hPa ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface have resulted in a very pleasant day. Temperatures tomorrow will be very similar to today, perhaps a degree or two warmer topping out in the lower to mid 80s.
212 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over the central Mississippi River valley. The culprit for these changes is largely due to a ridge extending out of the Atlantic into the eastern CONUS. This ridge will force a cutoff low over the middle-Mississippi River Valley to lift northward. Dry air ahead of the low is also playing a part. Guidance is still suggesting the low to begin's its northward journey late Monday and devolve into a weak open wave. Highs Monday look to be in the low 80s, except in the mid- upper 70s by the lakeshores and east.
Isolated to scattered storms are on tap again today as a mid/upper low and surface front hang around, but coverage will be less than we saw over the past 24 hours. Overnight, temps will fall into the low-60s to around 70 degrees, although high humidity will serve as an ever present reminder of what season we are actually in. The mid/upper low will slowly shift northeast Monday into Tuesday with the highest chance of rain shifting east as well, although isolated diurnal storms cannot be entirely ruled out area wide.
Temperatures tonight will remain cool though, as the lack of sunshine today has not allowed us to heat much through the day and the remaining clouds will help to moderate the temperatures into the low 60s through much of the area. Tomorrow, the closed upper low begins to slide northeast and out of our area slowly. Along with drier conditions, clouds will start to diminish, leading to warmer temperatures throughout the area. Discussion: Monday night and Tuesday, expect the upper level low drifting eastward out of the area, with continued low rain chances across the eastern fringe of the forecast area.
1221 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Offshore high pressure will extend over the region through most of this week.
1143 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021 Upper low is currently situated over northern MO with a vort lobe swinging southeast across eastern KS. Meanwhile, upper ridging remains planted over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, upper ridging extends from the Upper Mississippi Valley down into the OK Panhandle.
WV imagery indicates a north-northwest flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains while upper level ridging continues to dominate the Intermountain West. Near the surface, a weak lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado. Closed midlevel cyclone was spinning over NE Missouri at midday, with the cool/dry/stable (relative to midsummer) airmass being maintained/reinforced across SW Kansas. Afternoon temperatures will be well below normal, in the lower 80s north to the mid 80s near Oklahoma, with dewpoints slowly sinking through the 50s. Guidance is in good agreement regarding sunrise Monday temperatures in the mid 50s at many locations, a few notches cooler than the upper 50s observed this morning. Even some lower 50s are probable in the lower lying valleys of the northeast zones late tonight.
(This evening through Monday) A weak cold front will provide a focus for scattered thunderstorms to develop across the region through tonight. Otherwise, look for slightly cooler temperatures during the day tomorrow.
321 AM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Upper level heights continue to build over the region as persistent ridging over the western CONUS drifts east. At the surface, a weak ridge of high pressure has settled over the area. A very pleasant day is expected with highs in the low 80s and light surface winds.
302 AM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 An upper level high was centered over southern Nevada. An upper level low was centered over northeast Missouri. The upper level low will slowly move northeast and will get caught up in another upper level trough moving across the northern plains by tonight, meanwhile, the high will not move much. On Tuesday, the flow aloft becomes northwest as the upper high breaks down some, but the flow is so weak, that the mountain convection may not make into our area before it falls apart with the setting sun.
An upper level low continues to sit to the west of the area. It will finally start to lift northward tonight and then absorb into a trough over central Canada. A residual trough will form Tuesday with the axis setting up over Illinois before slowly pushing into the Ohio Valley late in the period. Nonetheless, broad upper level troughing mainly over the eastern portions of the forecast area will result in shower and thunderstorm chances still on Tuesday evening, rapidly tapering off from west to east Tuesday night as the trough axis shifts farther eastward. At that point, a more zonal pattern and even some weak ridging will take over in the upper flow.
951 PM MDT Sun Jul 11 2021 Evening Update: The update consisted of expiring heat and fire products that were able to be let go of as the cold front has passed through, and then focusing on the placement and timing of the showers and thunderstorms that have developed along the secondary cold front over generally the Glasgow area and moving to the east. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A cold front will sweep through the area this evening. Meanwhile a ridge will build north into British Columbia.
500 mb trough south of this low to another vort located in southeastern Saskatchewan. HRRR smoke model indicate lessening of smoke aloft behind the 500 mb system/trough from west to east this aftn/night.
Currently, under a clear sky and southerly winds, temperatures are holding mainly in the low to mid 60s. A cold front is analyzed across far western North Dakota extending down into northeast Wyoming, and there are a few elevated showers and thunderstorms along it.