Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Will see some isolated showers and thunderstorms develop in Colorado by the afternoon with lee trough making its way into the area. Upper ridge axis shifts a little further east on Monday with a cold front moving into eastern Colorado and prefrontal trough in northwest Kansas. Short term CAMs highlighting the trough as focus for convective initiation in the afternoon, roughly along a Tribune to McCook line, after 21z. Environment near the trough will be weakly unstable with mixed layer CAPE 1000-1500 j/kg, DCAPE about the same, and deep layer shear around 20 kts.
For the overnight, high res guidance indicates developing onshore low level flow and remnants of the low level frontal trough may provide a focus for isolated convection to move onshore. Lows 70-75 and warmer along the Atlantic barrier islands.
(Tonight) The upper level pattern features a ridge the extends across much of Mississippi River Valley. This ridge is flanked by a closed low to the east and west. The closed low to the east is centered near New England with the one to the west located across the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, the cold front is now well to the south of the area and stretches from E-W along the northern Gulf of Mexico. Dewpoints to the north of the front are bearable with most locations reporting surface dewpoints in the low to mid 50s. Despite the lower dewpoints, temperatures have warmed quickly into the low to mid 80s early this afternoon in the dry atmosphere.
Mid and upper clouds will increase this evening ahead of an approaching warm front. Warm frontal passage will occur on Monday. Will not include thunder as the low dewpoints and mid-level warm air result in essentially nil CAPE.
Temperatures could possibly be a degree or two cooler on Monday as well, but with the lack of convection and mostly clear skies, temperatures should still easily warm into the low to mid 90s.
Paducah KY 150 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 corrected formatting error A sharp mid/upper level ridge will continue to have influence over the PAH forecast area in the short term, as heights gradually increase. Mon is expected to be noticeably warmer than today. in the lower half of the 90s for highs. Lows tonight will be around 60 in most cases, with lows Mon night about 7-8 degrees warmer.
150 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 A sharp mid/upper level ridge will continue to have influence over the PAH forecast area in the short term, as heights gradually increase. Mon is expected to be noticeably warmer than today. in the lower half of the 90s for highs. Lows tonight will be around 60 in most cases, with lows Mon night about 7-8 degrees warmer.
The main trough axis lifts to the north Monday night accompanied by a cold front.
For tnt-Mon, high pressure over the Great Lakes will shift into the Ohio River Valley with pressure rises as far west as the lower MO River Valley. Swly winds and warm advection will likely boost high temps into the lower 90s including much of the lakeshore. Winds will turn southerly today as the high begins to move east. Temperatures will warm considerably on Monday, with highs in the low 90s. Breezy southwest winds are expected to be strong enough to keep the lake breeze offshore, so the warmer temperatures should impact all locations.
(This afternoon through Monday night) WV imagery shows a highly-amped upper ridge centered over Missouri/Arkansas, and covering the south central/southeast CONUS, abutted by a deep trough entering the Rockies. Regarding rain chances, satellite imagery shows a tongue of tropical moisture crossing Sonora into southwest New Mexico, bringing monsoonal rains to that area over the next 24-48 hours as convection develops ahead of the upper trough on the western periphery of the ridge. Southeasterly upslope flow will result in convection this afternoon there, as well as over the higher terrain up through Eddy County. Monday, redevelopment looks possible even farther east into the CWA as the ridge shifts east.
222 PM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 High pressure drifting east across the Great Lakes will maintain cool and dry weather through tonight.
1053 AM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022 The blocking pattern that has slowed weather progression across the US will finally start to break down today, allowing the PacNW trough to finally shift east into the Rockies.
Upper air analysis and water vapor satellite imagery at 18Z Sunday suggest the upper level pattern is quite amplified, with a ~591-dm cut-off ridge, centered over the central plains/Ozarks, sitting between a pair of deep troughs over the western and eastern coasts. Several 12Z CAMs have been suggesting isolated sub-severe thunderstorm development is possible this afternoon as the upper level trough inches east, and a few brief thunderstorms have already occurred near the KS/OK border.
211 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Latest water vapor imagery was showing the high amplitude ridge extending from the lower Mississippi Valley into south central Canada. Latest run of the HREF continues to show that this upper ridge will move slowly east across the central CONUS through Monday night. The combination of strong subsidence produced by the ridge and very dry air through a deep layer of the atmosphere will keep the forecast dry through Monday night. With the warmer day today, do not expect temperatures to fall as low tonight as they did last night. By tomorrow, winds will turn out of the southwest and 850mb temperatures will increase by 1-2C, so will keep highs in the low- mid 90s.
412 PM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 A 700 to 500 mb ridge of high pressure is continuing to push eastward into the Upper Great Lakes region this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms have formed along a low level jet with an incoming warm front from with enough shear to support growth up to a general 35 kft agl this afternoon.
456 PM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 It has been a beautiful day across the Commonwealth as high pressure dominates. Aloft, we still remain under northwest flow between a trough just off the New England coast and a ridge dominating over the Plains. Models depict heights rising across eastern Kentucky through the period as the ridge continues east into the area. At the surface, the high pressure currently over the Ohio Valley will shift to our east by Monday. Temperatures will be just a touch warmer for many locations, with lows generally in the low 50s. The high pressure and upper ridge moving east will bring our short stretch of below normal temperatures to an end and begin the transition back to above normal average.
Morning convection and cloud cover lend to some uncertainty, but as convection develops over the higher terrain of Wyoming and Southern Montana this afternoon and tracks northeast into a moisture rich environment, initial supercells and multicell structures should evolve and could grow upscale into linear convection in some instances given 1000-2000 J/KG CAPE in the presence of 50-60 kt 0-6 km shear and steep lapse rates.
439 PM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 A 700 to 500 mb ridge of high pressure is continuing to push eastward into the Upper Great Lakes region this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms have formed along a low level jet with an incoming warm front from with enough shear to support growth up to a general 35 kft agl this afternoon.
252 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 An upper trough will advance slowly east across the Great Basin tonight through Monday. A cold front will move into the northwest during the day. Then, near and behind the advancing cold front late Monday afternoon and evening. Activity will diminish by late evening as the cold front advances through the forecast area.
351 PM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 A Canadian high pressure system will continue settling south through the region overnight. Warmer and more humid air will slowly build into the Ohio Valley through the first half of the upcoming week, with hot and humid conditions expected once again by midweek.
1219 PM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Upper level low pressure will slowly cross the region today then move east across the Maritimes Monday.
The upper ridge over the center of the county will nudge slightly to the east on Monday. Weak surface pressure troughing underneath the moisture plume will encourage development of scattered storms in eastern New Mexico possibly extending into the Texas side of the border. Amplified flow pattern across the northern CONUS will give way to smaller scale systems moving across our border with Canada while high pressure elongates across the southern half of the nation roughly centered along 94W.
A familiar weather pattern, at least with respect to heat and wind, will persist over the next 24-48 hours with continued warmups through the upper 90s to around 100 degrees in the afternoons, followed by a limited cooldown overnight to the low 70s. As western Kansas remains in a warm sector regime under a ridge aloft, the afternoon gustiness will return again today as the boundary layer mixes out to dry adiabatic to near 700 mb with average winds around 25 knots in the 900-800 mb layer. A slight breakdown in the upper ridge and increased flow aloft will allow typical June eastern Colorado convective development to reach farther east to around the Kansas line in the evening before losing diurnal support and dissipating.
235 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 High pressure remains in control for the next few days. Winds remain southerly with the high pressure ridge axis to our east.
219 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Upper ridging has slide eastward, centered over Mississippi River Valley. Upper trough is crossing the Great Basin, with south/southwest flow over the High Plains. The upper trough will cross Montana tomorrow into North Dakota, with the next series of waves cross the CWA. MVFR and localized IFR ceilings will move into northeast WY and far northwest SD tonight behind a cold front.
Aloft, a blocked upper high, the same high that brought the heat last week, will slowly expand and inch into the region. The southerly flow will advect warmer air back into the region as well as increase moisture with dew points going from the 40s today to the 50s tomorrow. Together, these high pressure systems will continue the existence of dry air through the column in addition to plenty of subsidence which will allow skies to remain mostly clear through the period.
146 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022 An evolving area of low pressure west of the Northern Rockies will maintain a pattern of passing showers and thunderstorms across the region through this evening. A broad low pressure circulation is projected to emerge over southwest Montana on Monday, with nearly continuous precipitation across Lemhi County, southwest Montana, portions of west central Montana, and locations along the Continental Divide.
New low level jet forced activity is expected to cascade southward down the east flank of the ridge axis into Monday morning. It will experience a more stable downstream environment with dry air lingering in the low levels which may diminish intensity and/or limit thunderstorm potential but not areal coverage across the Thumb region, southern Lake Huron, and the Ontario peninsula. A broad region of low pressure, organizing on the Manitoba/Quebec border, pulls the surface warm front through Lower MI and pushes any remaining showers eastward out of SE MI by Monday afternoon.
We will remain under the ridge as the heat wave continues. As we get into Monday evening though a cold front will move across the Dakotas and into Minnesota. Along this front support by some areas of vorticity along the edge of the ridge aloft will provide a location for convective initiation.
A ridge will build westward across the Atlantic early this week, with the axis penetrating northern Florida.
319 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Strong high pressure ridging aloft is building over the region today and this will continue through Monday. A very large, anomalous 596dm upper ridge will be entrenched across the region, budging very little through the week.
With ample solar insolation, a reverse cloud line may form in the early afternoon hours along portions of the Lower and Middle Keys.
Some accumulating snow is expected over the higher mountain peaks of the southwest over the Southwest mountains.
1120 AM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 High pressure brings dry, unseasonably cool weather through tonight.
To start the period, the region remains in southwesterly flow aloft as the region sits between a highly amplified ridge over the Mississippi River valley and a west CONUS trough. At the surface, low pressure is centered over western North Dakota. This will begin moving eastward at a more steady pace tonight bringing cooler air into the region for western and, to a lesser extent, central ND on Monday. Initially for today, with the ridge in place and warm moist air in the east, heat index values will exceed 100 degrees in much of central ND.
Previous Discussion: Pacific trough will push through the region today. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected for Monday, however maximum temperatures are expected to be about 10 degrees cooler than today's highs.
An unseasonably strong upper level trough has now moved into the intermountain states and northerly flow aloft has developed over the west coast. A short wave sliding down the backside of the trough will bring isolated showers through this afternoon to the northern Umpqua Basin, the northern Cascades, and the east side. Clearing skies will allow temperatures to drop below freezing tonight, mostly over the northern portions of Klamath and Lake counties. A ridge is now building into the area from the west. A Chetco effect event will likely begin Monday, bringing high temperatures in the lower 80s to the Brookings area. A strong thermal trough will develop near the coast, and this will bring strong north winds to the coast and coastal waters.
242 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 The Mid-South will enter a repetitive weather pattern over the coming days as an upper level ridge remains in place.
Mid/upper level high pressure centered northeast of the region will continue to influence S TX weather, with above normal highs and humid conditions.
139 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Upper level high was centered over the lower Missouri River Valley. Upper level trough was pushing east through the Great Basin. On Monday, the upper high slides a little father south to allow the upper trough over the Great Basin to lift out through the northern High Plains.
The ridge will slightly strengthen tomorrow as it becomes more oriented over the Lower MS River Valley. This will result in slight height rises and increasing 1000-850mb thicknesses supportive of warmer temperatures.
Dewpoints have remained in the 50s and 40s while temperatures are topping out in the low to mid 80s. Then the heat turns up and we'll begin to warm as a ridge builds just to our west. Throughout the day on Monday the upper high centered over Arkansas is expected to build, which will contribute to warming temperatures through midweek.
342 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 A ridge is in place from central Canada to the Gulf of Mexico. There is a trough over the Northeast and another one over Great Basin/Rockies. Water vapor shows a subtle feature over the moisture axis on the back side of the ridge working north into western Kansas; this has led to some scattered showers and storms in southwest Kansas. With the ridge in place, above normal temperatures persist across Kansas by around five degrees with values in the 90s.
258 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 * Hot and humid today through Monday * Isolated severe thunderstorms possible this evening * Scattered severe thunderstorms possible Monday evening Hot, humid conditions prevail this afternoon through late Monday with an H5 ridge directly over the forecast area. Isolated thunderstorm activity is possible tonight ahead of an approaching, but slow moving cold front. The most favorable deep layer shear is expected to remain to the west of the highest instability, which will serve to limit the organization potential of any thunderstorm activity. The axis of development will be a cold front that will push through the area late Monday evening and into the overnight hours.
330 PM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 High pressure remains over the region through Monday.
349 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Upper ridge centered near the Arkansas-Missouri border this afternoon, with troughs along the Atlantic Coast and over the Intermountain West. It remains hot out there, with temperatures generally in the lower and middle 90s.
128 PM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 High pressure will build across the area through today.
Low temperatures Monday morning will be a few degrees warmer than this morning, with minimum readings expected in the mid-50s to around 60. The mid- and upper-level ridge which is currently positioned just west of the Mississippi Valley will also move eastward and build tomorrow, setting the stage for the mid-week heat wave across the region.
1244 PM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Tonight remains dry and cool with departing high pressure, with an increase in clouds. A warm front may provide a few showers Monday.
1151 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed along and south of the International Border this morning in a zone of 925 to 700 mb frontogenesis on the leading edge of a warm front. Have stuck fairly close to the NBM guidance which is a few degrees warmer than a blend of our usual deterministic guidance, and is fairly close to the bias corrected data.
A trough continues to push from west to east across the western United States this morning. Moisture drawn northward ahead of this trough was producing scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly east of a Black Canyon City to Four Corners line. trough will continue to push eastward delivering a drier air mass to much of northern Arizona. Along with the trough will come relatively strong surface pressure gradients with gusty southwest winds at 20 to 30 mph over most of northern Arizona.
133 PM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Aviation -- Warm and Dry weather will dominate the weather this week -- An upper level ridge over the United States will dominate the weather pattern through the week.
113 PM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Dry and warmer weather can be expected for the early portions of the week.
South-southwest winds may gust 30 to 40 MPH as an upper trough pushes into the northern plains. This upper trough will then likely allow scattered thunderstorms to develop near and ahead of an approaching cold front late Monday afternoon into the evening.
308 PM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 High pressure and dry conditions will continue across the CWA through tomorrow. NListemaa Baker Starting out with a midweek heat wave thanks to being on the eastern side of a persistent broad upper ridge.
These conditions will continue today with cooler temperatures.
No severe weather expected next few days as upper ridging builds in early this week then is flattened mid-week with quasi-zonal before troughing arrives over the weekend. Showers currently diving south-southeast over upper ridge axis to the west of Lower Michigan.
With ridging aloft intensifying, temperatures responded accordingly and rose well into the upper 90s with some locations reaching the triple digits. Between 1pm-2pm, some pop-up showers/storms began developing off of a "cold front" in western Louisiana and are gradually moving northwestward. I've capped PoPs around 20% for now to account for this, and as per usual with this scenario, expect the highest chances of seeing rainfall along and south of I-10.
311 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Key Messages: 1) After a slightly "cooler" day today, expect hot conditions to continue this week.
Early afternoon temperatures were in the low to mid 80s. Expect near normal lows in the lower 60s. Ridging begins to break down at the beginning of the period as MCS track moves into the area. Boundary separating the high PWAT Gulf of Mexico moisture will be in the area and will help to lead to cooler days and some warm moist days depending on which side of the boundary we are on for the rest of the period.
/Dewey 18Z TAFS: Scattered showers will persist over central and northern Washington into the evening as low pressure continues to spin over the region. Given the light wind pattern out of the south, this low ceiling will be slow to erode but should lift by 22z-02z this afternoon.
545 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022 A broad trough over the northern Great Basin region continues to impact the weather over the forecast area today. This airmass will be accompanied by gusty southwest winds which may approach wind advisories thresholds through the early evening hours ahead of a cold front which will push west to east across the area overnight. As the main trough moves across Montana on Monday, dry, breezy and cool conditions are expected over the region, with the exception of an isolated shower/thunderstorm along the Continental Divide. The Intermountain West will be situated on the western edge of a broad ridge of high pressure centered over the Central Plains.
The frontal boundary remains stalled across Northeast Texas this evening as evident by the higher dewpoints across this region attm.
/issued 242 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022/ The Mid-South will enter a repetitive weather pattern over the coming days as an upper level ridge remains in place.
645 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 (This evening through Monday) Southeasterly flow in the low levels has continued today, bringing in slightly higher moisture values across parts of the area, resulting in temperatures being a degree or two cooler so far this afternoon. Lows tonight will be similar to the last several nights, mainly in the low to mid 70s.
Temperatures today are cooler than yesterday, or in other words, more seasonal. The trough will continue to slide in tonight. Cooler temps also means much slower high-elevation snowmelt, and snowmelt is not really a concern after today. In general, cooler and somewhat wetter through Monday.
Temperatures currently range from the low to mid 70s across the region with a few locations in the lower 80s. /issued 242 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022/ The Mid-South will enter a repetitive weather pattern over the coming days as an upper level ridge remains in place.
457 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Upper ridging has slide eastward, centered over Mississippi River Valley. Upper trough is crossing the Great Basin, with south/southwest flow over the High Plains. The upper trough will cross Montana tomorrow into North Dakota, with the next series of waves cross the CWA. MVFR and localized IFR ceilings will move into northeast WY and far northwest SD tonight behind a cold front.
1020 PM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 High pressure will keep the area dry through the middle part of the week.
726 PM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 It has been a beautiful day across the Commonwealth as high pressure dominates. Aloft, we still remain under northwest flow between a trough just off the New England coast and a ridge dominating over the Plains. Models depict heights rising across eastern Kentucky through the period as the ridge continues east into the area. At the surface, the high pressure currently over the Ohio Valley will shift to our east by Monday. Temperatures will be just a touch warmer for many locations, with lows generally in the low 50s. The high pressure and upper ridge moving east will bring our short stretch of below normal temperatures to an end and begin the transition back to above normal average.
Heat indices are expected to be very close to the air temps, as the low-level moisture fields are not impressive and daytime heating/mixing tomorrow should allow dewpoints to mix out.
426 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022 A broad trough over the northern Great Basin region continues to impact the weather over the forecast area today. This airmass will be accompanied by gusty southwest winds which may approach wind advisories thresholds through the early evening hours ahead of a cold front which will push west to east across the area overnight. As the main trough moves across Montana on Monday, dry, breezy and cool conditions are expected over the region, with the exception of an isolated shower/thunderstorm along the Continental Divide. The Intermountain West will be situated on the western edge of a broad ridge of high pressure centered over the Central Plains.