Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
TFJ Upper low has moved into the Northern Rockies with the omega block ridge axis now near the Dakotas/Minnesota border. The entire system will continue to shift east today as the upper low lifts toward Saskatchewan. While the omega block breaks down over the next few days, the longwave trof will linger over the western states through most of the week. Cooler weather expected for the next few days with the upper trof over the region. Moisture wrapped around the stalled Canadian low will bring a threat of showers or thunderstorms to mainly north central Montana, but storms could spread into eastern Montana with the cooler unstable airmass. Winds expected to be stronger on Monday with the low spinning over southern Saskatchewan.
948 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 A weak frontal boundary will be across north central areas today while low pressure near the Mid Atlantic coast tracks south of the Gulf of Maine. High pressure will build across the region Monday.
Morning soundings show low/mid level wind flow was turning more to the northwest as a frontal trough moved into the region. The low levels were very moist early in the morning, but mixing down of drier air will occur through the day and a capping inversion will inhibit convection. This will allow max temps at the coast to reach 90 to the lower 90s. A small band of stratus has been advecting south ahead of approaching frontal trough. West/northwest winds will occasionally be near 15 knots into evening, especially Sebastian Inlet north, as the gradient tightens slightly in response to low pressure center forming along the Carolina coast.
The omega blocking pattern persists today with a western trough and a the ridge over the central United States as a jet streak stretches from the central Rockies into the northern Plains will stream nearly parallel with a surface cold front, with a warm front/dry line extending south along the front range of the Rockies from Wyoming to New Mexico. As was long expected, thunderstorms should develop along the front range surface boundary by afternoon as an impulse is ejected northeast out of the base of the western trough. Convection should develop along and help propagate east the cold front/dryline, but slowly, due to the nearly parallel upper level flow.
Troughing will remain over the area through much of the upcoming week keeping temperatures below normal and bringing a few showers and isolated thunderstorms to the Sierra and the south central Nevada mountains.
Temperatures will trend 5 to 10 degrees cooler than seasonal averages. A departing low pressure system will cause gusty south to southwest winds today.
1039 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 AVIATION section updated High pressure is expected across the area into the early parts of the week. Some mid level clouds may move through the eastern zones later today as a short wave trough drops through the eastern Great Lakes.
1140 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 A weak frontal boundary will be across north central areas today while low pressure near the Mid Atlantic coast tracks south of the Gulf of Maine. High pressure will build across the region Monday.
641 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Early morning convection stirring across the southern Missouri river valley and this is somewhat anticipated by the HRRR model runs as the low level jet gets going. Early this morning a cold front has stalled out across eastern Montana. As the main upper level wave and jet streak push into western North Dakota this afternoon this area of stratus will begin to erode and the cold front will propagate eastward. The high-res models point toward the southern James Valley as the most likely location for heavy rain. Models are having a rather difficult time resolving individual waves within the West Coast trough, but cyclonic flow over the area should bring a near daily chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. The KDIK, KBIS, and KMOT terminals will be most impacted by the low clouds.
High res models starting to hint at this with mainly spotty/weak/elevated convection possible just about anywhere across the cwa through much of the day thanks to that 700mb plume of warmer air, however there isn't much consistency with convective development through 00Z within the location of the front. CAM solutions point to an evening 0-3Z depiction of stronger cell development, suggesting that the low level jet will play a larger role in convective initiation and maintenance. The low level jet lingers across the eastern CWA well into Monday morning, with redevelopment during the afternoon likely to be just along the eastern extreme of the cwa before storms move off into Minnesota.
The cold front will become stationary Monday and then lift north as a warm front late Monday or Monday evening.
1101 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Mid and upper level low drops southeast and lingers in mid Atlantic states into Monday night.
Although drier air exists over South Florida, more significant drying, with surface dewpoint temperatures in the 50s, resides north of a slow-moving cold front located over the northernmost Peninsula. /issued 350 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016/ Today-Tonight: Drier air is now slowly filtering into the region in the wake of the trough and should help in bringing down overall POPS across the area. For the first half of the work week, the aforementioned upper level low will continue to meander across the Mid-Atlantic with several energy impulses traveling along the main trough.
848 AM PDT SUN MAY 22 2016 A low pressure trough will remain over the western states this week, continuing the seasonally cool weather, along with a small chance for some light showers or drizzle at times overnight. The large trough of low pressure over the western states will weaken slightly today with minor inland warming and gusty west winds in the mountains and deserts for the late afternoon and evening a little weaker.
The upper level ridge continues to slowly move to the east, it has some signs of an omega block-yet the troughs to the east and west aren't strong enough to keep the pattern from moving. The upper ridge currently over the plain states has a northerly flow aloft. Clouds will also be on the increase late in the day as the upper ridge moves to the east.
This boundary is best seen in moisture discontinuity, with dew points in central Louisiana in the lower 60s and GPS-MET showing precipitable water values near 1. 2 inches, while near the coast dew points are in the low to mid 70s and GPS-MET precipitable water around 1. Water vapor imagery shows an upper level trough from the Great Lakes down into the southeast US, with an upper level ridge from northern old Mexico through the mid part of the country. and also a disturbance dropping down into the region between the upper level trough and ridge.
A low pressure northwest of Washington coast will help pull a weak trough into the coastal waters this afternoon. As a result winds will turn southerly and increase ahead of this trough, especially from Florence to Cape Blanco. Offshore high pressure will build back into the coastal waters with north winds persist through the end of the week.
1026 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Upper trough over the Eastern U. The weak frontal boundary continues to slowly move over the FL Peninsula today with drier high pressure building into the region behind the front with near normal temps Westerly flow and VFR conditions to continue today.
608 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016 High pressure currently centered near the IA/MO border will shift across IL this afternoon providing clear skies, light northerly winds becoming light and variable, and a warming air mass. Cutoff low expected to form over the mid-Atlantic region tonight, and this will slow the eastward progression of the upper ridge that is currently over the Plains.
1232 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Showers today will give way to drier and warmer weather through mid week. As a result, pops were hauled in for most locations west of the ridges and thunder was removed from the forecast.
1057 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016 High pressure ridge moving across the Miss River Valley this morning. High pressure currently centered near the IA/MO border will shift across IL this afternoon providing clear skies, light northerly winds becoming light and variable, and a warming air mass. Cutoff low expected to form over the mid-Atlantic region tonight, and this will slow the eastward progression of the upper ridge that is currently over the Plains.
1019 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016 High temperatures are on track to reach the lower 80s inland and lower 70s along the lake. High pressure will keep winds light and wave heights low through tonight.
The secondary upper trough swings quickly past Central Alabama this morning. The upper level pattern shift slowly west to east bringing an upper ridge over Central Alabama.
1229 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Hydro High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern through Monday and result in mostly clear skies and a continued moderating trend of temperatures.
Most convection should weaken by late evening as boundary layer cooling helps to stabilize the low-levels.
Low pressure will remain situated over the western United States throughout this week bringing dry and tranquil weather to southeast California and most of Arizona. With the strongest vorticity center already lifting into Montana early this morning, heights aloft will remain steady over the forecast area for the next 48 hours as the low level pressure gradient weakens even further.
1001 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 Early visible satellite photographs show skies are mostly sunny with temperatures in the lower to mid 80s along the island chain. Surface wise, a weak area of high pressure is centered over the central Gulf of Mexico with a ridge extending into our area, while a trough of low pressure is aligned across the South Central Florida peninsula. With that said, have already updated the forecast to insert zero pops for the Lower and Middle Keys but maintain 20 percent pops after 18z in the Upper Keys. No change in forecast reasoning with the highest winds overspreading the coastal waters adjacent to the Upper Keys from mid afternoon through this evening, otherwise, light to gentle mostly northwest winds will prevail on the balance of our marine district.
a weak cold front rotates across northern Montana this morning will bring zonal flow by this afternoon. Models do indicate some CAPE over the far eastern zones,with a chance of tail end of cold front slipping through the eastern zones. Expect thunderstorms along the departing cold front, but weak shear should limit strength of storms. Zonal flow aloft will persist over the region tonight through Sunday, with some possible short wave ridging possible. A drier airmass, and downslope flow will lead to warmer temps. The Pacific trof approaches the area Sun.
/ISSUED 358 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/ Upper level low continues to move northeast this morning with weak subsidence over the area in its wake.
1033 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 High pressure will remain over the area through early Sunday. Weak low pressure may affect the region Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Weak high pressure builds into the region for midweek. A cold front may push through the region at the end of the week. Isolated thunderstorms will pop up mainly west of the Blue Ridge and closer to the Mason-Dixon. with the eastern parts of the forecast area having the highest POPs/QPF.
37in with a freezing level measured at 14,388ft. /issued 402 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/ Mid level ridging will weaken slightly today through mid week allowing for some convection to get started each day.
We expect a line of showers and thunderstorms to develop as that wave moves eastward, likely reaching the Highway 83 corridor by 23-01 UTC per recent convection-allowing model guidance. Low level northeast winds continue to advect in the lower clouds from southern Canada. The far southern James River Valley will get clipped by a few showers or thunderstorms through the morning, which are emanating around an upper low in northeast Nebraska.
604 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016 At 08z, skies were partly to mostly cloudy across the forecast area with temps still in the low to mid 70s. By Sunday, a weak cold front is progged by the short term models to move through the lower Ohio valley into the Tennessee valley and through the forecast area by Sunday afternoon.
While there is some chance for thunder, the only places that currently have thunder in this line are well north of the international border under cooler taller cloud tops than what are currently over the CWA. GAH The day begins with a cold front lined up north-south across the western zones. The front is associated with an upper trough centered over Southern British Columbia. By early evening the trough lifts back north into canada, allowing flow aloft to become westerly and ending the showers and thunder. Then conditions begin to change again Sunday night as another trough drops into the Pacific Northwest.
The current forecast remains in good shape with temps already warming into the lower 80s. With the ridge in place and warmer 925mb temps I concur with the previous forecast of upper 80s to a few spot 90's across the Saint Lawrence and Champlain valleys. North country remains under upper level ridge today and tonight. and also in the higher terrain. lows tonight will be will generally be in the lower 60s across the area. Most active period then takes shape by later Sunday into Sunday night with the approach of a longwave trough and its interaction with deep tropospheric moisture. As mid level heights begin to fall by later in the day and toward evening expect a broader coverage of showers/storms to develop and continue into Sunday night as upper trough approaches.
1057 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016 The forecast thinking is generally the same as of late morning with the expectation for scattered showers/tstms to develop with daytime heating in association with weak upper level troughing over the area. Expect the tail end of an influential upper level short wave for the mid-section of the nation to continue affecting the Lower Mississippi Valley region through the day. Our region's weather will be dominated by short wave ridging aloft on Sunday, in between the departed disturbance passing way to our north and another short wave approaching West Texas in the afternoon.
An upper level short trof over west Alabama continues to march eastward, but was encountering much drier air over east Alabama. Another upper level trof near the Mississippi river will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms over west Alabama this afternoon near axis of deeper moisture.
There will be no precipitation today and highs will range from the 50s in the mountains to near 60 at McCall to the mid-60s to lower-70s in the lower elevations.
928 AM PDT SAT MAY 28 2016 A weak low pressure system moving inland through Southern California will bring a slight chance of showers to the mountains this afternoon and a slight thunderstorms to the mountains and upper deserts for Sunday afternoon.
I increased today's Max Temperature by a couple of degrees over the extreme east and west boundaries of our area as they have seen a bit more sunshine than the central portion of Middle Tennessee and they are trending warmer than the previous forecast suggested. A weak low pressure are will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Mid-State today, especially along and west of Interstate 65.
848 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 A ridge of high pressure will remain centered over Pa today and Sunday.
1257 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 High pressure off the East Coast will result in warm and humid conditions with a chance of showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. A weak cold front will move through Sunday night.
(Issued 604 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016) At 08z, skies were partly to mostly cloudy across the forecast area with temps still in the low to mid 70s. By Sunday, a weak cold front is progged by the short term models to move through the lower Ohio valley into the Tennessee valley and through the forecast area by Sunday afternoon.
High pressure is centered near Bermuda and extends west into the Southeastern United States. Tropical Depression Two is approaching the South Carolina coast and has eroded the ridge across the Bahamas and the Florida peninsula. A mosaic of dry layers persists within the vertical column, and yet, cloud line cumulus can be seen congealing across the Lower Keys on the latest GOES visible imagery. Isolated showers may form within the developing island cloud line, favoring the northern fringes of the Lower Keys.
1122 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 A ridge of high pressure will remain centered over Pa this afternoon through Sunday.
Otherwise the region will be on the drier and subsident side of this tropical cyclone and this will suppress convection along the Atlantic Coast Sea Breeze as it pushes inland with rain chances generally less than 20% with only isolated showers and storms expected. Max temps will top out in the lower/middle 80s along the coast and well into the upper 80s and lower 90s further inland.
The upper level low that brought cool conditions and showers yesterday has moved into Nebraska. Behind it, a weak ridge in a westerly flow aloft will be over Colorado today. Models in decent agreement with scattered thunderstorms forming this afternoon over the higher terrain, including the Cheyenne Ridge and Palmer Divide. A few of these storms are expect to survive off the higher terrain. The upper ridge mentioned above remains positioned over Colorado on Sunday but in a weakened state due to a series of weak pertabations passing over the state in west-southwesterly mid- level flow. Otherwise temperatures Sunday look slightly warmer with max readings near average for most locations. the upper ridge shift east of the area allowing a west-northwest flow aloft to usher in another batch of mid-level energy and moisture for another round of afternoon and evening convection.
1017 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 Weak ridging in place across the area today as TD2 lifts NW toward the SE US coastline. Lighter easterly flow in the lower levels will allow for a greater west coast sea breeze development today.
321 AM EDT Sat Oct 29 2016 Low pressure will exit the Gulf of Maine this morning followed briefly by a weak ridge of high pressure. Low pressure over the northern Great Lakes will track across Ontario and Quebec today and tonight. This low will drag a warm front north into the area today followed by a trailing cold front tonight. The cold front will sink slowly to the south of our area on Sunday while another weak low travels along it.
401 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2016 A cold front will sag across the local area this afternoon bringing ample mid/high level cloud cover and generally cooler temperatures to at least the Nebraska portion of the forecast area today. where compression ahead of the front should allow temperatures to climb into the lower to middle 80s. had trouble forecasting RH values below 30 percent thanks to the accompanying cooler forecast temps. steady northerly winds will promote mixing of the lower layers of the atmosphere through much of the night. a significantly cooler airmass will advect into the central plains. cooler. Temperatures will be cooler than Saturday.
201 AM EDT Sat Oct 29 2016 A warm front will move across the forecast area Saturday. A cold front will drop across the Great Lakes Region Sunday.
Also, an upper-level low pressure system over the northwest Gulf of Mexico will aid to increase moisture across the coastal plains and result in isolated shower activity. Overall, dry and warm weather conditions are expected today with few showers across parts of the coastal plains and high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. Highs will be warmer than today by one degree or two as upper-level ridging strengthen a bit.
Overcast skies and cooler conditions will highlight the short term forecast. Notably cooler conditions are expected with highs in the 40s.
Aloft, the main upstream vort max was noted on water vapor imagery acrs the northern GRT BSN, with broad low amplitude ridging to the northeast of it toward the southern GRT LKS. The upstream vort max will ridge-ride and propagate right acrs IA through midnight, then dig toward the southwestern GRT LKS and Indiana into Sunday morning.
645 AM EDT Sat Oct 29 2016 A cold front will cross the area tonight.
329 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2016 Broad upper level ridging stretches across the southeastern CONUS, keeping the storm track to our north, where a series of impulses are moving across the Great Lakes and into New England this morning. An upper level closed low is also pushing into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, high pressure centered over the mid Atlantic Coast stretches westward to the Texas Gulf Coast. A weak trough might result in a very slight increase in cloud cover Sunday, but otherwise no changes in sensible weather.
Out ahead of these features, mid-level ridging is in place across much of Texas, and will continue to control our sensible weather through the weekend.
139 AM EDT Sat Oct 29 2016 Dry and milder than normal weather can be expected today as high pressure builds across the area. A cold front will bring a chance of showers to the northern mountains late in the day and tonight, and to the rest of the area on Sunday.
The filtering of the sun's rays through the high clouds doesn't seem to matter. The combination of the lower humidities and the winds themselves will tend keep overnight fire activity on the Junkins Fire a little more elevated than usual.
A cold front will move across the area Saturday night and bring a chance for rain, followed by cooler temperatures on Sunday. Return flow on the west side of the ridge was already underway this afternoon with winds increasing from the south, especially over areas west of highway 31. Otherwise, showers should develop along a cold front over Lower Michigan and move south Saturday; however, expect the rain to stay north of the area until Saturday night. A cold front will be moving south across the Upper Great Lakes region and will move across the area Saturday night and early Sunday. Rain should end by early Sunday night as a large high pressure area builds into the area from the northeast.
311 AM EDT Sat Oct 29 2016 High pressure will remain across the area through the weekend.
337 AM EDT Sat Oct 29 2016 Return southwesterly flow between departing high pressure to the east and a slowly moving cold front to the northwest will bring much above normal temperatures to the region today. The cold front will push south through the area Sunday into Sunday night.
Ceilings and visibility finally improve once the low moves close enough to turn winds from southeast to southwest. Unfortunately, behind the low the northwest flow is going to sweep more low clouds back over the area from the northwest, supported by the stratus already over over northwest Minnesota. Models are in general agreement Saturday night with high pressure building into the area. However, there are some minor differences in the QPF early in the evening in regards to the upper level long wave trof moving through. An associated warm front will lift into the region Sunday night with a good push of warm air up to 500mb.
225 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2016 Near record highs will prevail again today ahead of an approaching cold front.
620 AM EDT Sat Oct 29 2016 Much warmer today with increasing clouds. A cold front will bring rain chances tonight and Sunday. Low level southwest flow will push a warmer air mass over the CWA today. Upper flow will become zonal, hindering the initial approach of a weak cold front from the north.
Easterly surface flow switches to the south and warmer air makes a return on Sunday with upper 60s temps expected.
Otherwise upper ridging will lessen somewhat on Saturday as a disturbance moves through the four corners region and into the central plains. A southerly flow regime will remain in place keeping us above normal temperature wise, but highs will be a touch cooler on Saturday than today. However the ridge will build back in on Sunday, bumping highs back up into the mid 80s.