Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
300 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015 259 AM CDT QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER IOWA WITH BLOWOFF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ADVECTING OVERHEAD. DEUBELBEISS 259 AM CDT AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE AN UPPER LOW IS UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE AND MEANDERING ACROSS THE GULF STATES. MODELS HAVE NOW TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS UPPER LOW.
640 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR WALL TO WALL SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE LOW LANDS. TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY THIS LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW VIA UPSLOPING. WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE TODAY FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW LANDS. STILL RIDING THE LARGER TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LOWLANDS IN THE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWEST FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
THIS WILL KEEP THE HIGHER SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCES OVER NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KS TODAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH BUILDING-IN UPPER RIDGING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH. THIS RESULTS IN THE GFS PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN KS BY WED.
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DRIFT WESTWARD FOR THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE. WITH MANY AREAS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER 70S. TONIGHT WILL SEE LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAY. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN SOME THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NORTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS RISE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING BACK TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S ON THE PLAINS AND THE UPPER 60S AND 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE ANTICIPATED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS BECOMING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED WITH A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS COLORADO.
1200 AM MDT THU SEP 24 2015 AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR LOOP DEPICTED TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS. A PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDED FROM WY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. MODERATE CU FORMED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST WY. THE 12Z NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PROGGING THE UPPER RIDGE TO EXPAND INTO THE NORTH AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ALSO DOMINATE THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
FRIDAY WE WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE DRY AIR MOVE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID LEVELS CAUSING LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY FRI SAT AND SUN.
HOT DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION AMPLIFIES.
The GFS/ECMWF MOS values continue to be far superior to the blended solution for overnight lows at the typically cooler locations such as BVO and FYV.
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY DUE TO CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW AND BKN-OVC CIRRUS SHIELD LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO TNGT. MORE WIDESPREAD CIRRUS AND ELY FLOW WL CONTRIBUTE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN WILL MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
323 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA RAIN AMOUNTS WERE FAIRLY LIMITED AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW TREKKED JUST A BIT TO FAR NORTH AND WEST TO REALLY GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER SOUTHEAST. RAIN CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH REMAINS POSITIONED IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOT QUICK TO EXIT THE REGION. AS IT BECOMES STALLED BY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AROUND THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A WEAK THUNDERSTORM DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY BUT BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WEAKENS ENOUGH THAT THERE SHOULD BE DRY CONDITIONS.
306 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015 A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE IOWA/NEBRASKA BORDER.
509 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
418 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGIONS WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
614 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2015 COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND FRIDAY.
635 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR WALL TO WALL SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE LOW LANDS. TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY THIS LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW VIA UPSLOPING. WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE TODAY FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW LANDS. STILL RIDING THE LARGER TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LOWLANDS IN THE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWEST FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
143 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. GREATEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS THIS MORNING WILL EXIST MOVING FROM THE WARMER CITY LANDSCAPES TO THE SURROUNDING COOLER RURAL ENVIRONS. THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTH WILL HOLD ITS GRIP ON OUR REGION. TAX DRY AND MILD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE INTO FRIDAY.
WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND PATCHY FOG TONIGHT AND QUIET WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY. CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE IA/SD/NE AREA THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE SLOWLY EWD WITH A NEARLY CO-LOCATED SFC INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SWRN MN INTO WRN ONTARIO. A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD IN OVER THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO FALL WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND MAKE CONDITIONS EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
211 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HELPING COOL TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER-TO-MID 90S TODAY AND UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY.
315 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR WALL TO WALL SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE LOW LANDS. TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY THIS LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW VIA UPSLOPING. WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE TODAY FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW LANDS. STILL RIDING THE LARGER TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LOWLANDS IN THE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWEST FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A RIDGE ALOFT THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DRIFT WESTWARD FOR THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE. WITH MANY AREAS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER 70S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN SOME THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST.
133 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. SCT CIRRUS WILL SPILL OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD BE THIN. A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT IN AREAS EXPOSED TO THE LIGHT EAST BREEZE. THERMAL PROFILES GET A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA ON MOST OF THE MODELS ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS NORTHWEST OH. NOT SURE WHY IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO WITH THE EXCEPTION NEAR LAKE ERIE WHERE THE FLOW IS OFF THE WATER. TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE AND SUNSHINE SHOULD REMAIN PLENTIFUL ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRUS COULD MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES WITH 500MB RIDGING WHICH WILL ALLOW RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO MIX OUT WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ACROSS E ND.
142 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA. RIDGING WILL REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDS ONTO THE REGION.
THE LOW LEVEL WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST, ENHANCING THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE. THEY ALSO SHOW SOME RIDGING OVER THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. REMAINING PARKED THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND THANKS TO STRONG DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EAST PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BE UNDERGOING A SPLIT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EURO SEEMS TO TAKE MORE ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN SPLIT MOVING ACROSS THE HIGHER LATITUDES. SO WILL SIDE WITH THE WARMER AND DRIER EURO SOLUTION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS.
225 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA.
437 AM MDT THU SEP 24 2015 High pressure will exist over the Northern Rockies today, with relatively light winds and warm late September temperatures. Once the storm system arrives this weekend, there will be plenty of cloud cover, cooler temperatures, and a slight chance of precipitation.
The broad positively tilted upper trough tied to the tropical depression is progged to gradually weaken as pieces of vorticity lift northeast and become entrained within the faster flow aloft. Operational models are on the same page with this general scenario leaving behind the core/remains of the tropical depression, stalling it over eastern NE before it drifts southwest under the developing anticyclonic flow associated with the upper ridge building through the Central Rockies. Models also back the boundary layer winds generating a more easterly component and thus drawing in slightly cooler and drier air from eastern MO and central IL. Don't think overnight lows will be impacted much as the increasing cloud cover compensates for the cooler air. Above average high temperatures will continue Thursday and Friday even with slightly cooler air filtering in from 925/850mb.
149 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGIONS WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT WILL ALLOW A DRYING TREND IN COMBINATION WITH ABOVE SEASONAL LATE SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES TO BE NOTED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO TONIGHT. GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT.
THIS IS IN THANKS TO THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE FEATURE CURRENTLY OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. BETTER RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE PRESENT TONIGHT ACROSS THE EAST AS MODELS SWEEP A VORT MAX AROUND THE TOP OF THIS UPPER LOW AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP ACTIVITY GOING OVERNIGHT WELL PAST SUNSET. SEVERAL AREAS OF ENHANCED VORTICITY WILL PERSIST WITHIN A LARGE WEAKNESS/UPPER TROUGH WITH ONE OF THESE EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. LEADING TO MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.
651 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
Temperatures will continue to heat up across the interior of NorCal today and Friday as high pressure strengthens a bit and light northerly flow prevails. Similar to the pattern that occurred early this week, high pressure will gradually weaken over the weekend allowing a return of onshore flow and resulting in a cool down. The Delta Breeze will likely pick up steam by Friday evening, and locally breezy conditions will develop across the higher terrain over the weekend as well.
505 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015 VERY QUIET PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. ALOFT THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE BEGINNING TO BREAK OVER THE WEEKEND.
1030 PM PDT WED SEP 23 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
630 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA.
306 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. GREATEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS THIS MORNING WILL EXIST MOVING FROM THE WARMER CITY LANDSCAPES TO THE SURROUNDING COOLER RURAL ENVIRONS. THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTH WILL HOLD ITS GRIP ON OUR REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN US. TAX LAYER MOISTURE LOOKS TO START TO TICK UPWARD TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS A DECAYING UPPER LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS NORTHWARD. THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA LOOKS TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
416 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2015 COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND FRIDAY.
AND INTERMOUNTAIN RIDGE BUILDS. COMPACT CIRCULATION CENTER OVER NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING PROGD BY ALL MODELS TO WEAKEN/SHEAR OUT AS IT PROGRESS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF BUILDING RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. A COOLER NIGHT IS EXPECTED COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND THE INHERITED LOW TEMPS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD RESULT IN SOME BRIEF VCTS AT THE TXK/ELD/MLU TERMINALS BY LATE AFTERNOON. A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE TOMORROW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THIS WILL RESULT IN SFC WINDS INCREASING TO 12-18MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30KTS AT TIMES BY SUN AFTN. /ISSUED 501 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016/ THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR SOGGY WEATHER PATTERN THIS PAST WEEK HAS FINALLY MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
AREA FORECAST DISSCUSSION 419 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016 THE PESKY LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT HISTORIC FLOODING TO A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTH IS FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. THAT SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM.
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT COMPACT BUT RELATIVELY VIGOROUS CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT INTO EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY 03Z THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LARGE CYCLONE THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS LIFTING NORTHWARD AND SHEARING OUT. GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION AS LLJ ROTATES OVERHEAD AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGHS PASSAGE THROUGH OKLAHOMA. /ISSUED 326 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016/ THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALLOWING 3 PM TEMPERATURES TO HAVE RISEN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
Patchy drizzle and occasional light rain showers continue this afternoon across the region, as moisture streams north ahead of an upper level low located over eastern Texas. The remains of that upper low will lift into the Bootheel by late tonight, and expectations are for a slightly better coverage of showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms as the core of the upper low approaches. The forecast for Sunday remains somewhat tricky, as the region will begin the day located between two areas of upper level low pressure. The overall track of the upper low is not particularly favorable for organized thunderstorms across the region, with very weak/disorganized mid level wind fields north of the low center. However, cold temperatures/steep lapse rates aloft associated with the low will be favorable for marginally severe hail across the southern CWA tomorrow afternoon and evening.
551 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016 THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE EAST THIS EVENING WHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IF ANY FOG DOES DEVELOP IT SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS BEFORE WIND SPEEDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND TURN THE WIND TO THE WEST AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 18 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS. /ISSUED 306 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016/ HIGH PITCHED CHEERING CAN BE HEARD THROUGHOUT THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS WE CELEBRATE THE DEPARTURE OF OUR TENACIOUS AND TROUBLESOME UPPER LEVEL LOW.
SIMILAR TO FOG THAT DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT IN VCNTY OF UPPER LOW STIL IN AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD RESULT IN SOME BRIEF VCTS AT THE TXK/ELD/MLU TERMINALS BY LATE AFTERNOON. A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE TOMORROW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THIS WILL RESULT IN SFC WINDS INCREASING TO 12-18MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30KTS AT TIMES BY SUN AFTN. /ISSUED 501 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016/ THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR SOGGY WEATHER PATTERN THIS PAST WEEK HAS FINALLY MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
SURFACE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY STRADDLING KENTUCKY BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT PLACING MID STATE WELL WITHIN WARM SECTOR AND DEEP MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS OVERSPREADING THE AREA.
1001 PM EST SAT MAR 12 2016 A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE MIDWEST.
455 PM MST SAT MAR 12 2016 THE LATEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPS WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT DUE TO LOWER TEMPS ALOFT. AND AS A WEAK RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. ENERGY/MOISTURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A LARGER SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE UPPER JET SOUTH OF THIS LOW CENTER WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL-TO-NORTHWEST COAST. LOOK FOR A WARM AND DRY DAY AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND SHIFTS EAST. MAINLY OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH LATE SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONGER WAVE AND COLD FRONT ON MON.
AND THE FG-BLOCKING CLOUDS TO THE N. /ISSUED 149 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016/ LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY IN PLACE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW. EFFECTS FROM THIS FASTER-MOVING SYSTEM IN THE BASE OF A SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH WILL BE FELT MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
A negatively tilted trough is moving through the Lower Mississippi Valley out into the Central Gulf of Mexico. As this trough lifts northeastward overnight, expect an increase in shower and thunderstorm development across our area. This is already occurring offshore of St George Island, matching up well with an area of increased moisture ahead of the trough axis.
457 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 215 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016/ AREA 88-DS AND SURFACE AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE ANALYSIS AT 20Z INDICATED THAT THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/PRECIP INTO THIS UPCOMING EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE MOVING NORTH INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 70S AT 20Z. WILL SLOWLY WITH TIME REDUCE PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE LOWER END OF THE CHANCE CATEGORY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
INCOMING COLD FRONT AND UPPER SYSTEM. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT COMPACT BUT RELATIVELY VIGOROUS CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT INTO EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY 03Z THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
DEEP TROF OVER THE WEST COAST IS PUSHING CONSISTENT PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ON SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG WITH PERIODIC DISTURBANCES. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL KICK THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE IN BASICALLY THE SAME AREA UNTIL THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY IN FAR WESTERN MONTANA SHIFTS THROUGH. SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 60.
1003 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016 RAINS HAVE FINALLY COME TO AN END WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW TO THE NE.
THE LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING HAS MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE AND BRING DRY WEATHER. THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING HAS MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO AND PRECIPITATION HAS ALL BUT ENDED ACROSS OUR STATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEING TO BUILD OVER THE STATE TONIGHT.
831 PM EST SAT MAR 12 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.
333 PM MST SAT MAR 12 2016 THE LATEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPS WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT DUE TO LOWER TEMPS ALOFT. AND AS A WEAK RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. ENERGY/MOISTURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A LARGER SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE UPPER JET SOUTH OF THIS LOW CENTER WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL-TO-NORTHWEST COAST. LOOK FOR A WARM AND DRY DAY AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND SHIFTS EAST. MAINLY OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH LATE SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONGER WAVE AND COLD FRONT ON MON.
1038 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016 06Z TAF issuance Pacific cold front moving across the area currently will bring gusty westerly winds overnight and much of Sunday.
1158 PM EST SAT MAR 12 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.
AREA SURFACE AND MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WITHIN OUR OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES SOUTH OF DAUPHIN ISLAND THIS EVENING. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. UPPER LOW OVER EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH SUN.
851 PM MST SAT MAR 12 2016 AFTER MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY.
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS ACTIVITY IS DUE TO AN UPPER LOW IN EASTERN NM. THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO PARTS OF THE AREA. AND THE FG-BLOCKING CLOUDS TO THE N. /ISSUED 149 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016/ LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY IN PLACE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW. EFFECTS FROM THIS FASTER-MOVING SYSTEM IN THE BASE OF A SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH WILL BE FELT MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY.