Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
932 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016 Low pressure was drifting over and near Galveston Bay this evening. Scattered showers were rotating around the low center. The latest models, especially the high res HRRR, do not develop much other than weaker showers. not really in the clear however as upper low. upper trough continues to spin overhead so will remain somewhat unsettled through the taf period. The main upper level low continues to push southeast towards Corpus Christi this afternoon, but a secondary mid-level circulation (evident on afternoon water vapor imagery and SPC mesoanalysis) appears have to developed roughly over the Houston metro. An approaching weak cold front (stretching from the Permian Basin into Northwest Texas this afternoon) will slowly approach during the day on Sunday, reaching the Brazos Valley Sunday evening.
Wk shrtwv and subtle sfc warm front lifting ne across the area combining with deep moisture resulting in an area of rain overspreading much of the cwa today. except cooler near LM with onshore flow.
High pressure centered across Nevada will shift east over Utah on Sunday bringing a warmer airmass.
1030 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016 Moisture will increase ahead of an approaching cold front.
Highly localized rotations occurring in vicinity of warm front lying across the Laurel Highlands this evening. Increasing WAA pattern/southwest LLJ and anomalous H85 moisture influx of high PW air /+2SD/ will support fairly widespread coverage of showers/storms lifting northeastward with warm front across central PA later tonight. At the surface, low pressure will deepen to below 1000mb lifting northward across the lower Great Lakes into southern Ontario. To the south of a warm front advancing into NY and southern New England, guidance suggests a stronger early-day surge of moisture and forcing coincident with strengthening deep layer flow ahead of the approaching negative tilt trough.
Prefrontal troughing and pva usptream will continue to swing our way overnight. Upper trough axis and sfc front to work across the area late tonight.
802 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016 Showers and some thunderstorms are expected overnight and through Sunday as low pressure moves a cold front through the region. Expect more widespread showers and thunderstorms tonight into the first half of Sunday as mid level trough brings deeper moisture and lift into the area, ahead of a cold front now across Illinois. Have gone with a broad brush of chance POPs through the period with progressively cooler temperatures behind each passing system.
A cold front is dropping SE into the state early this evening. This trough will sweep into the state later this evening, forcing the front southward and kicking the last vestiges of the showers and thunderstorms south of the state. Dry northwest flow will spread into the state on Sunday, with warmer temperatures expected.
657 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016 19z/2 pm surface analysis shows a 1007 mb low pressure over western WI, with a cool front extending southward through central IL near Lincoln and into southeast MO. Models show more clouds dropping south from IA into the IL river valley later tonight as 565 dm 500 mb low near Minneapolis/St Paul MN tracks into the western Great Lakes with upper level trof axis moving into IL by dawn Sunday. Low pressure area over the Great Lakes region will continue to influence the weather over central and southeast Illinois through the beginning of the new week.
/00Z TAFS/ Upper low overhead and good mixing is helping to generate some strong storms in the early evening, but intensities should be downward by around 02Z.
522 PM MDT SAT JUN 4 2016 With ridging and drier air mass pushing into the region, the main issue will be temperatures. Models in close agreement on low level thermal field and tended to blend the output or slightly below the warmer guidance. The upper level ridge to the west will move across the Tri-State area during this period. During the overnight hours the nose of the low level jet develops over the north central part of the area. Looks like the higher dew point depressions will move in later in the night.
Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough from the MN arrowhead to the southeast corner of MN. Weak warm advection overnight however with light mixing and SKC temperatures might be a few degrees cooler. Secondary mid level circulation drops into main trough over the great lakes Sunday. With cooler column dropping into the fa temperatures should respond and have cooler minimums. Stronger waves digs into the mean trough over the great lakes. With more cloud cover and cooler airmass temperatures to hold mainly in the 60s to around 70 over the far SW.
A strong upper level ridge will remain over the region while a low pressure system approaches from the southwest. The upper low, currently near the northern California coast, will spread moisture into Southeast Oregon and Southwest Idaho on Sunday as the low moves into Western Nevada.
Water Vapor Satellite trends this evening place an upper level low in the northwest Gulf of Mexico near the Texas Gulf Coast. Further northeast, a cold front stretches across portions of East Central/Southeast Missouri, Northwest Arkansas, and Eastern Oklahoma. /issued 301 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016/ A cold front will push into the Mid-South tonight. The cold front will still be located over North Mississippi and areas of West Tennessee near the Tennessee River Sunday morning. Meanwhile, clearing will begin to take place across Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and Northwest Tennessee on Sunday as high pressure begins to build into the region.
639 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016 Quiet weather expected in the short term with weak high pressure prevailing across the region. Sunday will be an awesome day with highs again in the lower 80s.
A cold front is currently pushing southeast across the area this afternoon, as an upper level trough is spreading across the region. Behind the front direr and slightly cooler air will spread into the region. An upper level ridge will build over the plains early in the week then over the region during the middle to end of the week. Highs by the end of the week are expected to warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s with the upper level ridge over head.
701 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016 Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough from the MN arrowhead to the southeast corner of MN. Weak warm advection overnight however with light mixing and SKC temperatures might be a few degrees cooler. Secondary mid level circulation drops into main trough over the great lakes Sunday. With cooler column dropping into the fa temperatures should respond and have cooler minimums. Stronger waves digs into the mean trough over the great lakes. With more cloud cover and cooler airmass temperatures to hold mainly in the 60s to around 70 over the far SW.
A recently updated zone forecast boosted the winds by a few mph over the lower portion of the island chain overnight based on the latest available observations and the most recent solution to the HRRR smaller scale model.
701 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016 /18z TAFs/ The large upper low over the southeast Texas coast has produced scattered showers over portions of Central and North Central Texas this afternoon, but most of this activity is diminishing with the loss of daytime heating.
Widespread VFR and light surface winds are forecast through 00Z Mon as high pressure remains in control.
926 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016 Showers and some thunderstorms are expected overnight and through Sunday as low pressure moves a cold front through the region. Expect more widespread showers and thunderstorms tonight into the first half of Sunday as mid level trough brings deeper moisture and lift into the area, ahead of a cold front now across Illinois. Have gone with a broad brush of chance POPs through the period with progressively cooler temperatures behind each passing system.
A cold front approaching the area will keep the Southern Appalachian Region in an unsettled weather pattern through the TAF period. As the cold front moves into the area on Sunday.
Upper level low centered over southeast Texas this afternoon. Under clouds and rain temperatures were in the low to mid 70s. across southeast Texas between Bridge City and near Deweyville. The upper trough will begin to weaken and begin to lose substantial energy by Sunday.
An upper level low is analyzed east northeast of the area, just south of the upper Texas Coast. Showers and thunderstorms continue to rotate southward and southwestward around the upper level low.
Dunn /ISSUED 701 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016/ /18z TAFs/ The large upper low over the southeast Texas coast has produced scattered showers over portions of Central and North Central Texas this afternoon, but most of this activity is diminishing with the loss of daytime heating.
not really in the clear however as upper low. upper trough continues to spin overhead so will remain somewhat unsettled through the taf period. The main upper level low continues to push southeast towards Corpus Christi this afternoon, but a secondary mid-level circulation (evident on afternoon water vapor imagery and SPC mesoanalysis) appears have to developed roughly over the Houston metro. An approaching weak cold front (stretching from the Permian Basin into Northwest Texas this afternoon) will slowly approach during the day on Sunday, reaching the Brazos Valley Sunday evening.
/issued 301 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016/ A cold front will push into the Mid-South tonight. The cold front will still be located over North Mississippi and areas of West Tennessee near the Tennessee River Sunday morning. Meanwhile, clearing will begin to take place across Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and Northwest Tennessee on Sunday as high pressure begins to build into the region.
921 PM PDT SAT JUN 4 2016 from a cool 65F degrees at Del Mar Beach to a scorching 116F at Palm Springs and Thermal! This thanks to a cooling marine influence along the immediate coast while inland locales baked under the subsidence/hot ridge. Of course the most intense heat will continue over the deserts with temps forecast to rise to around 110F across the lower deserts.
804 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016 Moisture will increase ahead of an approaching cold front.
758 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016 Copious moisture circulating around Great Lakes low pressure will produce widespread showers and thunderstorms tonight.
Will continue with previous forecast trends of the lowering of pops.
A cold front approaching the area will keep the Southern Appalachian Region in an unsettled weather pattern. Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 82 64 88 / 70 60 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 79 62 83 / 80 80 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 70 80 62 85 / 80 80 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 78 59 82 / 80 80 20 10.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 56 72 52 / 0 10 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 56 69 49 / 10 20 40 20 Oak Ridge, TN 82 55 69 51 / 10 30 40 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 52 67 51 / 10 20 60 40.
Turning in the atmosphere has led SPC to put the CWA east of the Blue Ridge at a 5% tornado risk.
941 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016 The stubborn upper low over southern Lake Michigan should continue to move slowly southeastward through the day, gradually lessening its influence on the Northern Plains with ridging building into the region. The eastern area of clouds is more likely to persist as an upper low across continues to spin across the Great Lakes. Generally uniform high temperatures across the region with readings in the upper 50s/near 60 where the clouds take a bit longer to clear out across the east while reaching the low 60s elsewhere. Clouds should slowly clear in the east by evening as the low dips southward and ridging builds into the Dakotas.
523 AM MDT WED SEP 28 2016 Blocking pattern in place across the CONUS this week as downstream upper-low near the Great Lakes is taking its time departing. Satellite pix early this morning reveal cloudless skies across much of the intermountain west with a cold front evident settling south thru central Montana. This as an upper-level ridge of high pressure amplifies along the front range.
/issued 441 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016/ Today through Thursday night, An omega block covering most of the nation will help to maintain a deep upper low anchored over the Ohio Valley region as we go through the next couple of days. Cyclonic flow on the backside of the low will continue to send cooler and drier air into the forecast area as a result. A more significant cold front is progged to move through the area tonight and be south of the ArkLaMiss by daybreak Thursday. The fire weather danger threat shouldn't be quite as great given cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity.
620 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016 Water vapor satellite imagery/RAP 500mb analysis shows a closed low centered near Green Bay WI. Temperatures as of 2 am were in the upper 40s to the lower 50s. The closed low will sink south toward Indiana today with deep/cool cyclonic flow continuing across our region. another cooler than normal day on tap with highs topping off in the lower 60s. Closed low continues to sink southward into the Ohio River Valley Thursday into Thursday night which will allow default ridging across our region for clearing skies. Latest GFS/ECMWF in good agreement on lifting the closed low back north into the lower MI through the weekend, bringing with it cyclonic flow and threat for showers/sprinkles back into our region.
This will help to push a reinforcing shot of cooler air into our region tonight into Thursday in the form of a cold front. should see compressional warming across our region which will result in temperatures being warmer than those experienced on Tue with cold air advection resulting in considerably cooler temperatures on Thursday. This cooler and drier airmass will stay with us through the upcoming weekend with the Gulf remaining shut down.
1107 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 Late morning surface analysis depicts a cold front extending from the southern Appalachians to the western Florida panhandle. Weak low pressure (1012 millibars) was located along the front over southwestern Georgia. a large cutoff cyclone is spinning over the Great Lakes states, which is creating deep W-SW flow aloft over our area. Light southwest winds and prevailing partly cloudy skies are quickly boosting temperatures into the low to mid 80s as of 15Z, with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Low stratus ceilings will be possible after 06Z tonight ahead of an approaching cold front, especially at GNV.
925 AM PDT WED SEP 28 2016 A mid to upper level low will continue to move northward over the area today, bringing variable mid and high clouds and the potential for a few showers and thunderstorms, mostly in the mountains.
a cold front is dropping southward toward the I-72 corridor. The upper low and its associated surface front will gradually sink southward today, resulting in mostly cloudy and cool conditions. Upper cold pocket directly beneath the low will remain just east of the area across Indiana, where resulting instability parameters will support isolated thunder. High temperatures will range from the lower 60s far north around Galesburg and Lacon. The showers will be diurnally driven, so have dropped PoPs everywhere except the far NE CWA for tonight as low temperatures settle into the lower 50s. Deep upper low will be the dominant weather-maker for the next several days, as it remains cut off from the main flow and wobbles across the Ohio River Valley.
Upper level ridging has set up over southern Texas and the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. Farther north, an upper level low has set up over the Great Lakes region and associated troughing extends southward over the southeast U. Farther east, upper level ridging extends west southwest over the Bahamas and Cuba. The ridging will remain in place while the upper low moves south over the Ohio River Valley through the end of the week. On the surface, a frontal boundary extends south southwest from a low pressure center located east of Virginia. Temperatures will remain around or just below average with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the low 70s.
Backing low to mid level flow downstream of southward moving closed upper low over the OH valley will begin the large scale set-up for what should be a multi-day/36+hour heavy precipitation event focused over far south-central PA into Northern VA/MD. Precip probs will increase through the day with moderate showers likely reaching the Lower Susq. Max QPF amounts derived from WPC blend are located over the Lower Susq.
Water Vapor Satellite trends this morning place an upper level low centered near Green Bay, Wisconsin. Meanwhile, at the surface a cold front is located from Lower Michigan back through Central Illinois and Southern Iowa. Short term models remain in fairly decent agreement overall as an upper level low over Northern Lake Michigan begins to gradually drop south towards the Ohio Valley. The aforementioned cold front located across the Upper Midwest will drop south into the Lower Mississippi Valley later this afternoon into tonight. A reinforcement of cool Canadian air will filter in behind this cold front with lows tonight dropping back into the 50s.
H5 ridging will be taking shape over the central US in response to a deep closed low over the Ohio Valley and another closed low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Low level moisture continues to be quite dry due to the recent cold front passage thus skies should be mostly clear today allowing highs to rise a few degrees from yesterday, getting into the 80s for much of the CWA. Another re-enforcing dry cold front will be making its way through the CWA Thursday morning keeping high temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s in the northern half of the CWA.
Skies will remain mostly clear this afternoon as scattered cumulus clouds develop over the higher terrain. Mostly clear with scattered afternoon cumulus over the higher terrain. Southwesterly flow will increase aloft on Thursday ahead of the next upper level low pressure system for the weekend. northward across South-Central Idaho Thursday for a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain.
Temperatures are in the lower 80s. In the low to mid levels of the atmosphere, an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across the Florida Straits this afternoon. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a trough of low pressure will be located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico today. Anticyclonic flow in the low to mid levels of the atmosphere should limit POPs to slight chance category today.
Weak low pressure will affect northern Arizona for the next few days.
Increasing southeast flow aiding expansion of lower clouds from the Mason Dixon line northward into the Laurel Highlands and parts of the South Central and Central mountains and Ridge and Valley region at mid morning.
947 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016 An upper level low pressure system will bring rain to our region for the second half of the week. Upper low pressure will continue to dig off the Great Lakes through the near term. Currently-progged rain-supporting dynamics are progged for that period, but are limited given the lack of convergence/mid level frontogenetical forcing in this mature stage of the low.
1053 AM MDT WED SEP 28 2016 A digging low pressure trough off the coast of British Columbia will continue to drive the high pressure ridge, which brought mild and sunny conditions over the past few days, to the east. Concurrently, a closed low pressure system centered over southern California will continue to drift northward moving over Las Vegas late in the day. The initial moisture surge will be high based favoring showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain surrounding the Four Corners region beginning late this morning.
However, as trough aloft and associated frontal trough sag through the southeast states, 500mb temps will cool and moisture will increase.
Backdoor cold front is moving into northern Oklahoma and continues on track to bring cooler weather for this evening and tomorrow. Although the high clouds across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas look rather thin on satellite, there is enough to give observations sites a broken cloud layer where obs are supplemented by humans /ksps and kdfw/ and we can see the cirrus out the window to the south. A cold front will move across the area causing winds to shift to the north and northeast today.
606 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016 Backdoor cold front will bring chilly conditions to the region today.
A weakening surface and upper level ridge continues to remain in place over northern Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee. Further north, a cold front continues to push southeast from the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region into southern Missouri and Indiana. Some moisture advection ahead of the front should keep dewpoints from dropping below the lower 40s this afternoon. KTW (Issued 654 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016) For 12Z TAFs: A cold front now across central MO will continue to move towards the TN valley today. The cold front will go thru KMSL arnd 00z and KHSV by 03z. Since the chc of pcpn over the taf sites will be low as the cold front moves across the CWA, will not include in tafs attm.
An area of low pressure aloft will provide a chance of showers and thunderstorms through Thursday.
Dry cold front has pushed in to northeast Oklahoma as indicated by north winds gusting to around 20 mph at this time. cooler and dry conditions to continue through the end of the week.
902 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 Weak cyclonic flow is in place aloft over the southeast this morning as a large closed low spins over the Great Lakes. At the surface, the Atlantic high pressure ridge axis is over the Florida Straits with a cold front approaching the Florida panhandle. For the rest of today, we can expect scattered showers and thunderstorms first over coastal areas through this morning and then shifting inland in the westerly flow and this is likely where the highest coverage will be.
1054 AM MDT Wed Sep 28 2016 Water vapor shows large upper low over the Great Lakes with ridge over the nrn rockies/nrn plains. Nice fall weather will continue through Thursday with upper ridge in control. Temps a couple degrees warmer on Thursday as upper ridge axis moves through the nrn plains.
Mainly VFR conditions through this period with high pressure building. As high pressure builds over the region, moisture will continue to be pushed off to the south and east. The highest moisture air now remains mainly over the marine areas and will continue out of the area through today. A reinforcing push of high pressure is progged into South Texas Wednesday night bringing even drier air.
739 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 Low pressure centered over Northern Lake Michigan will drop south into the Ohio Valley today.
Cold front is located to our north and west across southern Alabama and central Georgia. The front won't make much headway today and will have to wait on reinforcing high pressure tonight and Thursday.
1213 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016 Upper level low pressure will bring rain to our region for the latter half of the week. Upper low pressure will continue to dig over the Midwest during the near term. Currently-progged rain-supporting dynamics are progged for that period, but are limited given the lack of convergence/mid level frontogenetical forcing in this mature stage of the low.
A cold front will move through the state this afternoon and evening and winds will become northwest behind the front, then north during the overnight hours.
The eastern area of clouds is more likely to persist as an upper low across continues to spin across the Great Lakes. Generally uniform high temperatures across the region with readings in the upper 50s/near 60 where the clouds take a bit longer to clear out across the east while reaching the low 60s elsewhere. Clouds should slowly clear in the east by evening as the low dips southward and ridging builds into the Dakotas.