Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Today Through Sunday Night The overall pattern remains similar to the past few days with ridging across the eastern Gulf and weak mean troughing centered over the south-central CONUS. mesoanalysis and hi-res guidance show a plume of enhanced moisture aloft riding up the western periphery of the Gulf ridge. Expecting the highest probability of convection will remain across the east where the best moisture is, although increasing instability through the afternoon could spark isolated convection elsewhere but probabilities are low attm. The presence of mid-level ridging will suppress convection over much of the state, although isolated to scattered storms will be favored over southwestern AR ahead of the approaching disturbance.
Southerly low level flow returns in earnest for Saturday and Sunday, as a deep mid-level trof develops over the western CONUS. Looks like the upper pattern will mostly stall through the extended, with an upper trough across the Pacific Northwest and a rather anemic pattern across the rest of the CONUS with a weak upper high starting to build across the Desert Southwest.
The low level jet will generate isolated showers and thunderstorms over the Rio Grande and Edwards Plateau early this morning. The low level jet weakens ending the rains out west by late morning. An upper level trough currently over western Arizona moves east into western Texas by late Sunday.
/issued 233 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020/ (Tonight through Saturday) Showers that were trying to get into the area underneath a relative weakness in the ridge just to our east have been weakening as they entered our southeastern counties. Low temperatures will remain in the lower 70s.
Attention then turns to the north of the area, as convection along a cold front is expected to dive southeast into the area late tonight. However, temperatures will likely reach close to the 90 degree mark with heat indices in the low to mid 90s.
Warmer air will stay just south of the forecast area south of the stalled frontal boundary.
Ridging sets up by Saturday evening, leading to southerly flow and increasing moisture for the second half of the weekend. Not much has changed in messaging with the extended, with a stagnate pattern featuring a broad western NOAM trough and eastern NOAM ridge. This pattern will promote the poleward transport of both heat and humidity, with the weather featuring daily highs near 90 and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. At either rate, it doesn't look like we have a great severe setup any day, but given the high PWATs, some excessive rainfall will be possible. Solidly VFR throughout this TAF duration as high pressure slides eastward atop the region.
429 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2020 Low pressure over eastern Ontario will move eastward into Quebec today with a weakening cold front sagging southward across the region this evening.
Highs tomorrow will be around 90 in the valley and a few degrees warmer to the west and a few degrees cooler to the east. An upper ridge will be in place on Sun, allowing for warmer temps and dry conditions. An upper low will transit into the Northern Rockies at this time, edging closer to the Northern Plains. Finally, the approach of an upper wave/500 mb trough by Wed could provide the de-stabilization/forcing necessary for organized strong to severe convection. Calm winds should increase from the south during the day Saturday with low pressure building to the northwest of the region, and strongest afternoon gusts 20-25kt will be possible mainly in northeast ND.
Veering and weakening of the low level jet over the next few hours along with advection of dry/warm air eastward should preclude surface based convection along/near surging outflow this far south. Further east, convection has so far been north of I-70 in north-central and northeast Kansas and is propagating slowly southward into the low level jet.
For Today, the HiRes models and NAM are much warmer than any of the MOS solutions, and have found a compromise for warmer highs across the south this afternoon.
Warmer temperatures as the 700 mb temperatures rise to near 14 Celsius. Even warmer temperatures on tap with 700 mb temperatures near 15 Celsius. Even warmer Sunday night as the airmass continues to modify. Activity will be aided by a slowly weakening upper trough that will be over the northwestern part of the country.
0" and sfc dewpoints in the lower 60s will support dry conditions and very comfortable temps across central NC this evening and overnight with temps gradually falling into the 65-70 degree range. With an increasingly cyclonic flow and the presence of a trough across the western Piedmont, isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon across the western Piedmont and drift east into the evening. Highs will be a bit warmer and range in the upper 80s to lower 90 with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. An upper low over southeast Canada will slide south over the Northeast US where it will sit through the middle of the week.
A cold front will become nearly stationary across north central Illinois this weekend. The main synoptic boundary is expected to take on a NW to SE orientation across IL as upper ridging builds to the west on Sunday. This will result in the higher rainfall chances from central to SE IL, and into central KY. However, many of the medium range models appear to be overdone with the precipitation - especially since the upper flow is expected to be quite weak with a ridge axis near us, resulting in little in the way of forcing.
Weak ridging aloft will continue thru the short term, with a mean trof across the western US.
An upper trough over the southwest CONUS is progged to weaken as it ejects to the northeast across the Plains on Sunday. Hot and muggy conditions are expected through the period with highs in the low to mid-90s and dewpoints in the 70s creating heat indices in the upper 90s to near 100.
However, due to the high based nature of any storms that manage to form, strong, gusty winds in the 50 to 55 mph range are definitely within the realm of possibility.
More cloud cover today will limit temperatures somewhat, with highs only in the low to mid 90s for most areas.
Deep layer ridging will remain in place over the region today, rendering another hot, dusty, mostly dry day. With light west-southwesterly winds in place at the lower levels, a weak Gulf coast seabreeze is expected to kick off first, followed a few hours later by an Atlantic seabreeze that should stay pinned along the east coast. Overnight, the warm conditions will continue with lows in the low-mid 70s.
955 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020 Quiet weather under high pressure. Expect more of the same throughout the week as the pattern doesn't really change, and more vort maxes eject from a deep trough to our west. VFR with high pressure overhead. High pressure remains in control over the region today through much of the day Sunday.
Some drizzle this morning will enhance that, and dewpoints are already in the low to mid 70s as well. A quick short wave moving through will add an assist to the lifting of the unstable air in the low levels.
An upper trough will bring cool showery weather to Western Washington over the weekend.
Later tonight, increasing low level jet across the central High Plains will begin to draw warmer/more moist air northward. Shear is on the weaker side, but could be locally enhanced near the subtle surface warm front. Given this conditional potential, certainly cannot argue with the SPC Day 2 Marginal Risk, again mainly in our far eastern areas, but confidence in overall development is on the low side at this point.
355 AM MDT Sat Jun 27 2020 Longwave trough begins to dig southward along the Pacific Northwest coast today, turning local flow more from the southwest during the day. The Pacific trough will be throwing vorts northeastward across the state. A weak cold front will be stalled roughly from KRKS to KBYG. A jet max will be rotating around the western trough, but is currently placed too far west to provide essential lift (for now). Best buoyancy setting up north of the front closer to the trough will provide focus for some continuous rainfall. There will be a closed low on the ID/OR border with the trough extending through NV/CA.
Also, temperatures this afternoon will be noticeably cooler than recent days.
639 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020 Upper level ridging will amplify over the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley today and tonight. This places the CWA on the backside of the ridge axis as a weakening Great Basin low evolves into an open wave to our west. The airmass warms slightly Saturday and Saturday night as we will fall under the influence of the upper ridge. Highs trend warmer on Sunday as increasing southwest flow ushers in warmer and drier air.
The omega block pattern over the lower 48 will strengthen on Sunday, with the deepening of upper trofs over the Pacific northwest and New England. The intermediate ridge over the MS River valley will amplify, warming Midsouth temps to near normal values, and limiting rainfall potential.
/issued 330 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020/ Will start the day with the upper ridge over TX and a trough moving into AZ. As this trough moves east it displace the ridge a bit before breaking up and being swept downstream Sunday. The next upper low will begin to move into the NW today moving across WA and OR Sunday then into ID.
539 AM MDT Sat Jun 27 2020 A warming trend is expected to commence across southeast Wyoming & the western Nebraska Panhandle today as high amplitude upper-level ridging evolves over the central Rockies in advance of a deepening trough over the Pacific Northwest. Precipitation chances increase Sunday & Sunday night with the arrival of dynamic forcing associated with a vigorous trough over the northwestern CONUS. Large inverted-v profiles w/ LCLs above the freezing level suggests wind would be the primary hazard.
This is due to the Atlantic ridge overspreading the area with the axis of the ridge to our north. Moisture through the sounding is fairly well mixed and relative humidity in the lowest 300mb about 65 percent. MLCAPE (mixing the lowest 50mb) is around 1500, but there is a good deal of convective inhibition to overcome (100 j/kg). Above the boundary layer winds are generally from the north forced by upper level ridging in the Gulf. With the limited convective action, the Keys will again heat up into the lower 90s, with heat indices in the 105 degree range.
557 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020 Updated for 12Z aviation discussion 12Z TAF discussion: Plenty of MVFR/IFR low cigs under the higher cirrus this morning. Some drizzle this morning will enhance that, and dewpoints are already in the low to mid 70s as well. A quick short wave moving through will add an assist to the lifting of the unstable air in the low levels.
629 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2020 Low pressure over eastern Ontario will move eastward into Quebec today with a weakening cold front sagging southward across the region this evening.
330 AM PDT Sat Jun 27 2020 Significant cooling expected over the weekend with a slight chance of showers over the higher Sierra Nevada Sunday.
429 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020 Quiet weather under high pressure. Expect more of the same throughout the week as the pattern doesn't really change, and more vort maxes eject from a deep trough to our west. VFR with high pressure nearby. Quiet under high pressure.
There is some indication in model soundings that the low stratus may complete mix out before a higher based strato cu field quickly fills in during the early afternoon. A weak cold front will advance south across Se Mi this evening. This will lead to minimal change in the high temperatures compared to yesterday with highs generally in the mid 80s. Expect dry conditions to close out the weekend as an amplifying ridge builds across the Midwest and Great Lakes region. Subtle warming of the residual airmass will get underway tomorrow with fewer clouds expecting under the ridge. The ridge will persist across the region while an upper low gets cut off from the mean flow across the New England region and wobbles into the mid-Atlantic region through mid week.
412 AM MDT Sat Jun 27 2020 A warming trend is expected to commence across southeast Wyoming & the western Nebraska Panhandle today as high amplitude upper-level ridging evolves over the central Rockies in advance of a deepening trough over the Pacific Northwest. Precipitation chances increase Sunday & Sunday night with the arrival of dynamic forcing associated with a vigorous trough over the northwestern CONUS. Large inverted-v profiles w/ LCLs above the freezing level suggests wind would be the primary hazard.
/Today through Sunday Night/ Still dealing with a persistent shear axis in the mid levels of the atmosphere across SE TX into the Tenn Valley, sandwiched between mid level ridging across the NE Gulf and ridging across far West Texas attm.
624 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020 Quiet weather under high pressure. Expect more of the same throughout the week as the pattern doesn't really change, and more vort maxes eject from a deep trough to our west. VFR with high pressure overhead. Quiet under high pressure.
522 AM MDT Sat Jun 27 2020 Longwave trough begins to dig southward along the Pacific Northwest coast today, turning local flow more from the southwest during the day. The Pacific trough will be throwing vorts northeastward across the state. A weak cold front will be stalled roughly from KRKS to KBYG. A jet max will be rotating around the western trough, but is currently placed too far west to provide essential lift (for now). Best buoyancy setting up north of the front closer to the trough will provide focus for some continuous rainfall. There will be a closed low on the ID/OR border with the trough extending through NV/CA.
Warmer mid level air should keep this activity from building too far south and will likely continue to lift into north central KS. Will maintain above normal temps through the weekend with highs generally in the low to mid 90s for both today and Sunday. Sharp upper trough is expected to extend along the Rockies by Tue afternoon which will result in lee troughing at the surface. There is good model agreement that upper troughing over the northwest CONUS will slowly weaken by mid week as upper ridging builds over the Southern and eventually Central Plains.
A surface warm front has started sagging south into the forecast area early this morning and will continue to do so through the day. The low level jet that was promoting strong storms late last night has moved further east, allowing storms to weaken in our area. At any point today, rainfall within storms could be heavy, leading to isolated flooding as models show PWATs at the high end of normal for this time of year. Central Indiana will be on the peripheral back edge of a ridge, meaning that the air mass over the area will be warm and moist. High pressure continues to be suggested to be in place aloft through the week.
437 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020 Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows ridging aloft acrs the NE Gulf of Mexico, nudging up against the persistent weakness that has lingered over the region for the past several days. Meanwhile, high pres in the lower levels continues to ridge acrs the northern Gulf coast, with southerly winds maintaining transport of warm and moist Gulf air into the area. Temperatures today are expected to be a little warmer than the past few days, with highs into the upper 80s/around 90.
Steepening low/mid level lapse rates and sufficient instability present will set the stage for likely thunderstorm development in vicinity of a lee side trough axis in eastern Colorado late this afternoon as a series of H5 vort maxima kick out of the Rockies. As for temperatures, look for lows down into the 60s(F) in west central and much of southwest Kansas with the lower 70s(F) possible in south central Kansas.
Relatively zonal flow persists across the area as we are sandwiched between a building upper ridge over the Florida Peninsula and very subtle and weak troughing over northern Pennsylvania and southern New York. Morning high res models have depicted this; however, coverage on the models seems to be on the lower side. Lows will remain in the mid 70s given the high dewpoints.
353 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020 A warm front lifted north across the local area this morning.
229 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2020 Conditions are priming for a period of showers and strong to severe thunderstorms across our region with the approach of an upper trough from N/NW. The upper trough will be reinforced and strengthen over the Pacific NW Sunday.
Upper ridging over the Gulf with an upper shear axis over SETX will give way to a s/w moving into the area from the southwest. Sunday the highs should reach 88-92.
Moist ascent on the southern side of this wave and north of a warm front, was leading thick cloud cover from eastern KS through central MO. The RAP perhaps has the best handle on things and as the cloud cover shifts east and the warm front moves northward from the south, builds the instability northward. Given the instability that may build northward with the warm front, and the marginal shear, some strong storms can't be ruled with some hail and gusty winds. We should see highs in the low to mid 90s with upper 60 to lower 70 degree dewpoints during the heat of the afternoon.
A warming trend is expected to commence across southeast Wyoming & the western Nebraska Panhandle today as high amplitude upper-level ridging evolves over the central Rockies in advance of a deepening trough over the Pacific Northwest. Precipitation chances increase Sunday & Sunday night with the arrival of dynamic forcing associated with a vigorous trough over the northwestern CONUS. Large inverted-v profiles w/ LCLs above the freezing level suggests wind would be the primary hazard.
420 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2020 A fairly quiet weather pattern is set up with high pressure over South Florida. Even with the high pressure, there are several convective parameters that are excellent, like CAPE at over 6000J/Kg on a modified sounding and NCAPE of. With the SAL keeping convection at bay, there is really no afternoon cool down, which is allowing the high temperatures to be in the mid to upper 90s, and with high humidity, the heat index is in the low 100s.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday night): Modest, broad, mid-level ridging will stretch over the area in the short term, leading to relatively benign, seasonal weather.
Upper level Trough will pass and flatten as it moves east.
There will be a good deal of instability in advance of the feature with lows tonight only in the lower 70s.
Activity will diminish after sunset with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
While mid and upper level ridging will suppress a great deal of the convection Sunday, sea breeze convection along the coast looks to make significant enough northward penetration for scattered coverage to occur over southern portions.
Expect additional development through this afternoon and evening, mainly across the higher terrain and adjacent plains of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas, though some of the high-resolution guidance indicates potential for storms to progress as far east as the western Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau later this evening. Elevated moisture will maintain above normal low temperatures tonight, with lows in the 70s for most, and 60s across portions of Southeast New Mexico and across the higher terrain. Sunday, a trough over the Pacific Northwest will begin to progress southeastward, displacing the southern CONUS ridge axis to the east. Resulting westerly flow aloft will yield the beginning of a warming trend across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas, with highs Sunday about 3-5 degrees warmer than today, reaching into the upper 90s/lower 100s for all but the higher terrain.
Otherwise, look for high temperatures to remain in the low to mid 90s.
While the higher SBCAPE axis is more confined to the west of the CWA, there is enough marginal instability currently around 2500 J/kg that could allow for some strong storms and cannot rule out severe, but overall shear params are not impressive. Sunday has some amplified upper ridging into the west and south portions of the CWA but enough diurnal heating will still allow for at least slight pops by the afternoon and continued higher chance pops in the far north with other possible upper wave influence.
JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 71 87 71 89 / 30 20 40 30 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 69 82 70 86 / 30 40 60 50 50 Oak Ridge, TN 83 69 82 69 86 / 30 50 70 40 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 66 78 66 80 / 40 50 70 50 70.
As for Sunday, temperatures look on track to warm into the 90s across the whole forecast area as an upper level high continue to sit over the area. An Upper Level Low situated across the northwest CONUS will continue to move southeastward and begins to weaken as it pushes into The Rockies and continues east.
On Sunday, upper ridging should begin building across the region from the SW, raising heights and helping to produce warmer conditions.
Upper level ridging will remain in place across the area though the rest of the week, making for a hot and humid week as gulf moisture streams north. A messy pattern somewhat reminiscent of an omega block sets up with closed upper lows across the pacific northwest and New England this week. With the ridge axis across Iowa allowing for southerly flow to usher in heat and gulf moisture, afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and overnight lows in the low 70s are forecast. Dew points will remain in the low to mid 70s, resulting in heat indices in the upper 90s to near 100 which raises some heat safety concerns.
The issue for this evening and again on Sunday afternoon/evening will be a weak short wave trough slowly making its way east across southern sd and then northeast across northeast sd. Otherwise, through Sunday night, a large upper level low pressure area will develop over the western U. It may be a little warmer with highs in the upper 80s to the mid 90s under mostly sunny skies.
307 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2020 Low pressure is along the Ontario/Quebec border, with a surface cold front crossing OSC and W Branch. We will still scour out the lower clouds in eastern upper MI over the rest of the afternoon and early evening. This occurs as weak high pressure moves overhead. Min temps tonight will be cooler than last night, mainly in the 50s. Also expecting less in the way of cu Sunday, as our low-level airmass is both a little warmer and a little drier. Otherwise mostly sunny and just a little toasty, with highs mainly in the low-mid 80s. The lakeshores will be somewhat cooler as onshore lake breezes develop. An upper level ridge (omega block) is centered across northern Michigan through the period.
And lows only in the lower to mid 70s mostly, so pretty muggy nights as well.
/GG/ Expect an active summertime pattern as upper ridge builds over the southern Plains & mid-level ridge axis builds into the mid-upper Plains.
Temperatures were in the upper 70s to middle 80s, except in the lower to middle 70s near the bay of Green Bay and near Lake Michigan. Given the moisture available with the high dew points heavy rainfall will be a concern from any precipitation, especially for areas that get several rounds of rain.
343 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2020 A cold front will move across the area tonight and Sunday. High pressure will nudge southward across the Upper Ohio Valley and largely remain across the area this upcoming week. As of mid afternoon the cold front was located across lower Michigan. That being said, we still have the cold front to pass so cannot rule out a shower/thunderstorm. High pressure begins to build southward across the eastern Great Lakes for Sunday. The cold front will likely be along the south shore of the lake early Sunday morning and will continue to press south. Confidence increasing in omega block pattern setting up over the region with an upper-level ridge over the Midwest/Great Lakes area and an upper-level low situated over the northeast CONUS through the week.
A weak cold front has stalled over southern Idaho county and into west central Montana.
412 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2020 Unsettled weather will occur ahead of a weak cold front that will slowly sag across the area Sunday before stalling Sunday night.