Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper level analysis shows weakening low pressure over far northern MN, with near zonal flow from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains. Temps are on the cooler side again, 60s and lower 70s, with light east to northeast winds. The threat for stronger storms looks to be on the low side through Tuesday, most favorable this afternoon into the early evening across southern parts of northeast WY to far southwest SD, where MLCAPE values to near 1000 j/kg will be in place. An upper low will then track across parts of the Pacific NW and the northern Rockies toward the latter part of the week, with southwest flow developing ahead of it across the northern and central Plains.
/issued 840 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019/ Skies are mostly cloudy across much of the region this evening with temperatures ranging from the lower 70s to lower 80s. /issued 358 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019/ An upper trough is approaching from the west will move across the Midsouth this evening.
In the upper levels a trough is over MS/AL/FL Panhandle this afternoon.
1137 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019 Aviation - The basic theme this week is more rain opportunities, but warmer. Looking for cloudy skies tonight along with some patchy fog under weak high pressure which is centered over Ontario. Weak low pressure will push a cold front through the cwa Tuesday night. Latest model trends keep the low closer to I-70.
Additional storms developing along the High Plains will congeal into a larger storm complex which will also track into the forecast area after midnight.
With high pressure then scooting overhead and the mid and upper levels drying out, could see some patchy radiation fog, especially in places that do manage to see the few heavier showers. With weak cold front slowly pushing through, will see off and on showers moving through overnight and Tuesday at all sites. After a slight trough today, high pressure will build over Lake Superior this evening and persist into the weekend.
In wake of this disturbance, a deep layered western Atlantic ridge will build westward and into South Florida and over our entire region by late Wednesday.
The best chances for widespread convection will be Wednesday, primarily in the evening and through the overnight hours as a stronger trough moves through the region. This feature will likely bring a cold front through the state, which will be the focus for most of the activity. Otherwise, high temperatures should range from the lower 80s to lower 90s, with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
Shear is still on the low side, barely reaching 30KT in most soundings; however, Bunkers vectors hint at cell mergers, meaning a localized flooding risk should also be considered.
General blocking pattern remains, with water vapor imagery indicating a few circulations either over or upstream of the region. With this, today will be fairly similar to yesterday, although a bit warmer. The upper low across western Canada begins to propagate southeast during this period. Latest guidance indicating that blocking (dry airmass) will hold across this region through the day on Wednesday. Kept the low end PoPs on Wednesday as some uncertainty still exists with how the western CONUS upper low will evolve.
With high pressure then scooting overhead and the mid and upper levels drying out, could see some patchy radiation fog, especially in places that do manage to see the few heavier showers. With weak cold front slowly pushing through, will see off and on showers moving through overnight and Tuesday at all sites.
The exception will be across portions of the Rio Grande plains where some late afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity moving in from the lower Trans Pecos could impact the western portion of the county.
A gradual increase of wind speeds through the profile combined with some veering (mainly in the low-levels) could foster updraft organization and a wind and hail threat. A longwave midlevel trough will develop across the western US with a surface frontal zone across the Central Plains.
Today Through Wednesday Night Weak upr trof was noted ovr the FA early this mrng, with a few showers noted ovr the ERN half of the area. SLight chances for convection wl cont today, mainly acrs the Ern half of the FA, as the aforementioned upr trof conts working sloly to the E. An assocd CDFNT wl also accompany the upr trof, helping to enhance the activity as well.
At least they all agree that convection will fire again today as a longwave trough moves through the area. 75 inches) and lift from the trough and orographics will be more than able to tap into instability aloft causing showers and storms to form. Expect some CU buildup over the higher terrain, maybe a passing shower as well, but nothing to impressive. By Wednesday night, a new trough will dive south through the northern Rockies.
The latest H5 analysis depicts a trough extending through central Arkansas, with resultant southwest flow over the local region. The trough will continue east over the Mid-South today, with showers and a few afternoon thunderstorms primarily over the eastern counties of the FA. Rain chances will wane overnight as zonal flow sets up aloft, while lows reach the lower 70s. By Wednesday afternoon the next upper trough begins to swing out over the Plains, allowing a surface cyclone to deepen over the Midwest.
Instability quite limited throughout the day, mainly weak elevated instability through midday, so potential for thunder will be on the lower side. This should lead to a cooler night, with lows in the lower to mid 50s.
Sfc data shows weak trough off the coast of northeast FL and southeast GA, lifting to the north, with weak southwest sfc winds over the land zones. Flow aloft is southwest at mid levels and temps at 500 mb are a bit warmer than yesterday at about -6.
These adjustments capture the isolated rain showers over parts of south central and southeast MO (slightly farther west than previously forecast) as well as the lower coverage of precipitation which has been observed over parts of southwestern IL.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): Hot and humid weather with above normal temperatures will prevail through the period as mid level ridging builds over northern Mexico. High temperatures on Wednesday should be a couple of degrees warmer than today with triple digit high temperatures spreading closer to the coast, along the I-69E corridor. The combination of the higher temperatures and the persistent higher dewpoints will support afternoon heat index values of 111 to 116 or higher, on Wednesday.
High temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will remain in the high 70s with a few low 80s possible. Lows will drop into the 50s tomorrow night with Wednesday nights temperatures cooling off into the low to mid 40s. Broad upper trough will dominate the northern Rockies and high plains through most of the period resulting in periods of isolated/scattered showers and thunder along with daytime highs 10-15 degrees below normal.
532 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019 High pressure will remain across the region today, then begin to exit across the Maritimes tonight. A cold front will reach northern Maine later Wednesday and stall.
747 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019 High pressure will remain across the region today, then begin to exit across the Maritimes tonight. A cold front will reach northern Maine later Wednesday and stall.
Today we'll see isolated storms mainly over the higher terrain near the Utah border.
511 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2019 Current upper level analysis has weak closed low over northern Minnesota with broad cyclonic flow across the Northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure resides across the Northern Plains. An upper low will then track across parts of the Pacific NW and the northern Rockies toward the latter part of the week, with southwest flow developing ahead of it across the northern and central Plains.
311 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2019 High pressure over North Dakota will move to the east this morning. Then, the upper low moves into the Canadian Prairies by Wednesday Night. This will bring a cold front through eastern Montana Wednesday afternoon and evening with showers and thunderstorms.
Latest model guidance has scattered showers and storms continuing to stream in from the west with the highest coverage over the interior and east coast later this afternoon. The ridge has shifted south resulting in an onshore south-southwest flow.
Weak upper trough axis extended from central Wyoming southwestward into southern California early this morning. Meanwhile, strong high pressure aloft was centered west of the northern California coast (near 37N/135W), and over eastern Mexico. Various 18/00Z numerical weather prediction models depict a weak trough aloft will prevail over the southwest U.
Otherwise, generally VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours as high pressure builds over the area. /issued 433 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): Hot and humid weather with above normal temperatures will prevail through the period as mid level ridging builds over northern Mexico. High temperatures on Wednesday should be a couple of degrees warmer than today with triple digit high temperatures spreading closer to the coast, along the I-69E corridor. The combination of the higher temperatures and the persistent higher dewpoints will support afternoon heat index values of 111 to 116 or higher, on Wednesday.
420 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2019 Current upper level analysis has weak closed low over northern Minnesota with broad cyclonic flow across the Northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure resides across the Northern Plains. An upper low will then track across parts of the Pacific NW and the northern Rockies toward the latter part of the week, with southwest flow developing ahead of it across the northern and central Plains.
302 AM PDT Tue Jun 18 2019 High pressure aloft to the north will bring some inland warming through Wednesday with the marine layer not quite as deep.
941 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019 High pressure will remain across the region today, then begin to exit across the Maritimes tonight. A cold front will reach northern Maine later Wednesday and stall.
The ridge has shifted south resulting in an onshore south- southwest flow.
However, the lower level ridge is displaced just to our south with troughing north of this across the southeastern United States and eastern Gulf of Mexico. There is a very weak trough at the upper levels aligned across Florida and Cuba. Short Term Update - Surface ridging will dominate synoptically at the surface this afternoon. The combination of a broad ridge across our area and day time heating over Florida and Cuba will result in light to gentle southeast to southerly breezes slackening this afternoon and back more easterly.
242 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019 High pressure continues over the region for Tuesday, keeping precipitation chances minimal.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 70 86 73 / 70 50 50 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 68 84 71 / 70 40 50 70 Oak Ridge, TN 80 69 82 71 / 70 50 50 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 66 81 66 / 80 40 50 60.
The storms should end from northwest to southeast on Wednesday night with the main trough shifting east of the area.
151 PM PDT Tue Jun 18 2019 We are seeing some fractures in our persistent marine stratus pattern as a ridge attempts to build aloft, but these changes will be temporary, as another large trough develops over the West later this week. It will be a bit warmer through Wednesday, with only minor variations near the coast.
1116 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2019 Current upper level analysis has weak closed low over northern Minnesota with broad cyclonic flow across the Northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure resides across the Northern Plains. An upper low will then track across parts of the Pacific NW and the northern Rockies toward the latter part of the week, with southwest flow developing ahead of it across the northern and central Plains.
1146 AM PDT Tue Jun 18 2019 Look for increasing winds today and Wednesday with a cold front passage cooling Wednesday.
For this afternoon and evening, a compact upper level low continues to move across central KS with a sfc boundary north of the OK/KS border and a subtle low level convergence area west of I-35 into central OK. Later this evening storms developing over the high plains are likely to grow into one or more clusters that will move into eastern OK late evening and overnight and eventually northwest AR. At this time the highest probabilities should remain north of I-40, and these storms will mainly pose a damaging straight-line wind threat.
Drier, warmer and windy as the low level winds turns westerly, helping to advect in drier air at low and mid levels.
259 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019 Currently - An Atlantic ridge stretches westward towards Florida and pushes into the Gulf of Mexico across the Keys. Meanwhile, a lower level trough located broadly over the Florida Peninsula and adjacent waters is slowly moving east northeastward away from the Keys. Forecast - The lower level trough will continue to move out over the next 24 hours and, in turn, the ridge will consolidate its control over Florida and the Keys. The proximity of the ridge will maintain light to gentle east to southeast breezes along the island chain. No trend in temperatures are anticipated, with highs near 90 and overnight lows in the lower 80s to near 80. Dry air will continue to dominate through the lower levels.
149 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019 * Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible through this evening, accompanied by large to very large hail * Very hot conditions follow late this week Despite a weak upper level ridge over the region strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop once again through this evening across mainly west Texas as an upper level disturbance moves through the ridge and interacts with a moist and very unstable airmass east of a dryline.
A cold front will approach from the northwest Wednesday afternoon and evening increasing the chance of showers and thunderstorms. The cold front will move through most of the Midsouth by late Wednesday night before weakening.
For tonight, high pressure building in from southern Ontario/Lake Superior pushes that frontal boundary southward into IL/IA. High pressure continues to advect drier air into the area Wednesday into Wednesday night but lingering mid-level frontogenesis will keep a slight chance of showers going during the day across portions of northeast IA into southern WI.
125 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2019 A cold front currently across central Montana will make its way into Phillips County late this afternoon and arrive at the North Dakota border later this evening. Brief, weak ridging moves in Wednesday which should help to keep most areas dry, though far eastern and northeastern areas may continue to see some rain showers.
Another possible scenario for thunderstorms will be activity rolling east/southeast off the High Plains along/north of the stalled frontal zone/outflow into southern KS toward midnight, although activity may remain just south of the forecast area in OK, especially if a big cold pool pushes the stalled frontal zone south.
Severe chances still look on the low side, but if there are isolated strong to severe storms, they'll probably form/occur over the Missouri valley where MLCapes reach 1k j/kg or so in the afternoon, and mid level winds increase leading to a bit better deep layer shear.
113 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019 High pressure will remain across the region today, then begin to exit across the Maritimes tonight. A cold front will reach northern Maine later Wednesday and stall.
Convective initiation has occurred on the high terrain of southern New Mexico from south of Santa Rosa to east of Ruidoso with additional storms struggling to form on the Guadalupes near Carlsbad. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along a southward-moving cold front across the northern Panhandle, and the possibility exists from the southern end of that area of storms moving into the northeastern part of the forecast area later this evening. Standard as we approach mid-summer, shear is relatively weak but should increase some as the low level jet increases this evening. Moving into Wednesday, the cold front mentioned above is expected to move into and likely stall across the forecast area.
On Wednesday, a cold front is expected to move through the region, with the main result being windy conditions.
Outflow from this mcs may not only serve as focus for convection later wednesday, but may also enhance compressional heating and or dewpoint pooling with highs into the lower 90s and dewpoints possibly into mid 70s.
The upper ridge has shifted south and now extends westward over the Bahamas, Cuba and into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Farther west, weak troughing extends south through the Mississippi River Valley and into the central Gulf of Mexico. The combination of these upper features and surface reflection of the high ridge has caused a shift in the winds to the south-southwest. Showers and storms that were over the coastal waters this morning are already marching eastward toward the interior with the highest rain chances in that area and the east coast later this afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be right around average, but will feel warmer with the higher humidities.
Temperatures will be warmer as well with more sunshine expected. A few thunderstorms may be ongoing over the far northeastern plains Wednesday evening, otherwise skies should be clearing with near to warmer than average overnight lows.
but will continue overnight as upper trough to the west shifts eastward providing lift across se Ga/ne Fl.
Will have a tempo of IFR level cigs at CHA for a few hours where the lower conditions look most likely, but these lower conditions cannot be ruled out at any of the sites.
Wednesday still looks windy with a dry cold frontal passage, followed by much cooler temps into the weekend.
High pressure continues over the region for Tuesday, keeping precipitation chances minimal.
821 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2019 Lingering shower and tstm activity continues over the sern portions of the CWA with scattered showers over the higher terrain. Temperatures will be warmer as well with more sunshine expected. A few thunderstorms may be ongoing over the far northeastern plains Wednesday evening, otherwise skies should be clearing with near to warmer than average overnight lows.
As such have included a tempo group for the higher wind gusts. Convective initiation has occurred on the high terrain of southern New Mexico from south of Santa Rosa to east of Ruidoso with additional storms struggling to form on the Guadalupes near Carlsbad. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along a southward-moving cold front across the northern Panhandle, and the possibility exists from the southern end of that area of storms moving into the northeastern part of the forecast area later this evening. Standard as we approach mid-summer, shear is relatively weak but should increase some as the low level jet increases this evening. Moving into Wednesday, the cold front mentioned above is expected to move into and likely stall across the forecast area.
Bigelbach PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A cold front currently across central Montana will make its way into Phillips County late this afternoon and arrive at the North Dakota border later this evening. Brief, weak ridging moves in Wednesday which should help to keep most areas dry, though far eastern and northeastern areas may continue to see some rain showers.
They then focus new convection overnight somewhere between Key West and the Dry Tortugas, with the possibility of showers and thunderstorms brushing the Lower Keys in the hours around sunrise. By mid-day Wed, the strengthening of the subtropical ridge over South Florida and building 500 mb heights over the Keys will start a larger-scale drying of the mid-level air mass. Previous showers and thunderstorms over the Florida peninsula have left an inactive boundary just north of the Lower and Middle Keys.
A slight cooling trend will take place over the interior through midweek as onshore flow increases and the ridge of high pressure offshore weakens. High pressure over the eastern Pacific continues to nudge toward the region this afternoon with widespread 90s across the interior.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 86 71 85 / 40 50 60 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 84 70 82 / 30 50 70 80 Oak Ridge, TN 70 83 70 82 / 50 50 70 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 81 66 80 / 30 50 60 80.
639 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019 Just a couple of showers still holding together, mainly north of the highway 2 corridor. High pressure continues over the region for Tuesday, keeping precipitation chances minimal.
73 inches, a very deep moist layer up to 500mb, an unusually high freezing level for us of 14650 feet, MLCAPE of 684 J/Kg, and deep layer shear of only 15 knots.
911 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019 Skies are mostly clear across the forecast area this evening with temperatures ranging from the lower 70s to lower 80s. A cold front will approach from the northwest Wednesday afternoon and evening increasing the chance of showers and thunderstorms. The cold front will move through most of the Midsouth by late Wednesday night before weakening.
This will bring a renewed batch of showers and thunderstorms late to North Central SD, reaching the Mobridge area by 12Z. Severe chances still look on the low side, but if there are isolated strong to severe storms, they'll probably form/occur over the Missouri valley where MLCapes reach 1k j/kg or so in the afternoon, and mid level winds increase leading to a bit better deep layer shear.
while a short wave trough tracks across north FL from the northeast Gulf of Mexico overnight. Atlantic high pressure ridge west with an axis through south FL. Atlantic high pressure ridging west to the Gulf of Mexico.
/issued 149 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019/ * Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible through this evening, accompanied by large to very large hail * Very hot conditions follow late this week Despite a weak upper level ridge over the region strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop once again through this evening across mainly west Texas as an upper level disturbance moves through the ridge and interacts with a moist and very unstable airmass east of a dryline.
852 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019 A broad mid level trough across the southeast states is keeping unsettled weather across east central Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico this evening. Low temps tonight will drop into the lower to mid 70s.
Wednesday may see an isolated or scattered shower or thunderstorm drift into south central SD in the morning as a warm frontal boundary sets up to the west of the forecast area. Severe threat will be low overnight, but with the arrival of the low level jet in south central SD after midnight, a few strong or marginally severe storms will again be possible. Best chances will be across the northern half of the forecast area closer to the wave as it lifts into northeast SD/southeast ND, while upper ridging attempts to lift into the central Plains. Warm front will lift to near the mid Missouri Valley Thursday night, possibly extending into northwest Iowa.
Another dry weather system will move into the area on Thursday afternoon bringing gusty winds and eventually cooler temperatures for the weekend. Mid-level drying and warmer air aloft should cap all buildups Wednesday while temps rise to about 4-6 degrees above normal. Computer model guidance has be very consistent with an upper level trough deepening over the western US by midweek.
358 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019 The upper low across western Canada is propagating toward the northern plains. Latest guidance indicates that ridging (dry airmass) will hold across this region through much of today. Two upper level waves will eject from the main upper low and influence this region through the period. Forcing weakens as it bumps into the ridging across Minnesota by Thursday evening.
This will initially be caused by the mesoscale 'Cuban shadow' effect, with southeast to southerly flow allowing the transport of warmer, drier air.