Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
747 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020 Generally dry weather is expected much of the rest of the week under high pressure, though a few showers are possible south of Pittsburgh with crossing waves of low pressure.
Weak forcing for ascent regime downstream of very large upper ridge over the Great Basin will influence today's chance for PoPs. One or more subtle impulses are being noted on water vapor imagery in SK trekking southeast through the mean flow along the northeastern periphery of the upper ridge. This will bring warmest temps into the upper 80s to locations closer to central ND, while those within the RRV and MN stay slightly cooler away from the warmth aloft as well as under higher chance for periodic cloud cover. Getting into the evening, the chance for PoPs may linger within the southern RRV and west- central MN as the higher theta-e content continues to migrate deeper into the area with lingering weak forcing for ascent. Wednesday looks even warmer with continued advection of warmth into the region.
High pressure will bring dry conditions for the remainder of the work week. Temperatures will start out on the mild/cool side with minimum temperatures in the 50s (locally upper 40s) and maximum temperatures in the 70s through Wednesday as the center of this high pressure builds across the area. By late in the week, this high will settle to the south of the area with return south/southwest flow in its wake bring temperatures back into the 80s. This warming will be encouraged by building upper level heights as the core of upper troughing fills and shift to the east while upper ridging remains intact west of the region.
The main story however will be the cooler and less humid airmass slowly filtering into the bi-state area behind last evening's cold front. This afternoon's high temperatures should be mostly in the low 80s or about 5 degrees cooler than yesterday. North/northeast winds at the surface will continue to advect cooler and drier air into the region. High temperatures on Wednesday are forecast to be a a degree or two cooler (mainly due to the cooler start to the day) compared to this afternoon.
Continued warm conditions expected, with the area located on the eastern periphery of a very strong upper level high pressure system across the western CONUS. Expansive and strong upper level high pressure will remain anchored near or just west of the four corners region though this coming weekend.
(Today and tonight) Light northeast winds will bring relatively drier air across Oklahoma through tonight Just some high clouds are expected to move south around the eastern side of the Great Basin upper high. There is a very low chance that thunderstorms will arrive to northwestern Oklahoma after midnight from the high plains of Colorado.
925 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020 Generally dry weather is expected much of the rest of the week under high pressure, though a few showers are possible south of Pittsburgh with crossing waves of low pressure.
with the highest pops focused east of Highway 281. High pressure aloft to our west will slowly retrograde southward through the first half of the extended eventually resulting in a more westerly pattern aloft.
520 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2020 A cold front will push southeast into the Ohio Valley today. High pressure will control the weather pattern tonight and Wednesday, bringing low humidity and temperatures a few degrees below normal. 06z surface analysis placed 1013 mb low pressure near KMTO. Farther north, 1020 mb high pressure currently over southern MN will shift east into WI. Highs should reach the lower 80s CWA-wide. Clear skies tonight and with dewpoints lowering into the low/mid 50s, will see cooler lows in the mid 50s. Upper level pattern features strong ridging over the Rockies, with faster northwest flow staying well to our northeast, leaving weak flow across the Midwest.
957 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2020 Deep northerly flow is noted over the forecast area between an upper level ridge out west and an upper level trough along the east coast.
629 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2020 High pressure will continue over the area through the period with light winds and VFR conditions. Today Through Wednesday Night An upper ridge is centered over Utah will continue to provide northerly flow over the Plains. An upper trough over the eastern U. The ridge will remain stationary through Wednesday and the pattern will remain the same over Arkansas.
A weak short wave trough embedded in northwest flow aloft which produced yesterdays rain has exited the area. With high pressure building into the area today following passage of the cold front yesterday, cooler and less humid conditions can be expected.
956 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2020 A weak cold front is moving across the mid-South at this time. Strengthening northerly winds will allow high temperatures to be a few degrees cooler than yesterday.
So we've been discussing the deeply reflected mean upper trough affecting our region in one way or another for the past several days. We have had the passage of a few pieces of associated mid-and upper tropospheric wave energy that have pushed a series of weak low level cold fronts southward, only to frontolyze and dissipate in the mid 90s F heat on their relative cold side.
the center of an 5990dam upper high was centered over the Nevada/Utah border this morning with northerly flow over the Tri-State area. High temperatures are expected to be in the low to upper 90s. Low temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 60s.
Water vapor imagery this morning was showing a large dome of high pressure situated over the western half of the CONUS. Meanwhile a broad trough was encompassing the eastern half of the country.
Surface dewpoints north of the front were in the lower to middle 60s, with lower 70s south of the boundary. An upper level short wave trof will approach northwest Alabama later today and could trigger isolated showers and thunderstorms across northeast MS and northwest AL late in the afternoon or early evening, with a few lingering showers or thunderstorms across areas south of I-85 this early this evening. The upper trof axis will stall out near the AL/MS state line on Wednesday and possibly retrograde westward in the afternoon.
523 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020 Generally dry weather is expected much of the rest of the week under high pressure, though a few showers are possible south of Pittsburgh with crossing waves of low pressure.
Scattered showers will continue today as low pressure tracks across the Ohio Valley. setting the stage for great weather for the next several days as a high pressure ridge builds in. Small chances for showers and storms will return over the weekend as a weak cold front moves into the region. Also kept chance POPs a bit longer over southwestern counties this afternoon as latest guidance slowly drags upper-level trough axis through this area. Forecast challenges are few through the period as high pressure becomes the dominant influence across the region. Any convection will shift south of the forecast area this evening with clearing skies as high pressure builds in from the north.
659 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020 A cold front will linger offshore today through tonight and then will move farther southeast Wednesday through Wednesday night as high pressure builds in from the Ohio Valley.
518 AM MDT Tue Aug 18 2020 08Z upper level analysis has large ridge over the Great Basin region with northwest flow across the Northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure is located across the upper midwest with weak trof developing in the lee of the Rockies. Great Basin upper ridge will dominate the weather pattern for much of the week into the weekend.
and Wednesday High pressure from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes will bring fine summer weather to the area today through Wednesday. There is a slight chance of a shower near the Michigan border late tonight and Wednesday ahead of a developing warm front, but otherwise dry weather is expected with light winds, seasonable temperatures and comfortable humidity.
610 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020 Cooler, drier and less humid weather will prevail today with mostly sunny skies. Warmer weather is ahead the rest of the week; however, the dry weather will continue with highs in the 80s. Otherwise, cooler and drier air will continue to spread over the Great Lakes region through Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure builds east. The large upper level high over the southwest CONUS will try to build northeast as short wave energy moves into the area.
A subtle short wave trough will move southward from eastern Colorado and western Kansas late tonight. Thunderstorms may take up more real estate Wednesday night as a stronger short wave trough moves across the region from the north and northwest.
414 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2020 A warm front across the central Dakotas has sparked a few thunderstorms over SD this morning. As the warm front advances eastward slightly by tonight, a few storms may approach far western MN. Southerly flow strengthens for Wednesday as the high pushes off to the east.
656 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020 A cold front will linger offshore today through tonight and then will move farther southeast Wednesday through Wednesday night as high pressure builds in from the Ohio Valley.
An upper low will be dropping into the low to mid MS Valley Wednesday night while at the surface frontal moisture washes back northward.
Will also mention a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the Rio Grande Valley and northern ranchlands Wednesday before drier air aloft and subsidence increases Wed afternoon with the 500mb ridge across the western United States and the 500mb trough across the southeast U.
345 AM MDT Tue Aug 18 2020 A subtropical ridge centered over east-central Nevada is expected to drift southwest over the next couple of days. Weak disturbances rotating around this high will give some chances of mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms. Although temperatures will be slightly cooler today would still expect a few locations to tie or hit new record highs. The main stories for the period revolve around the large ridge near the Four Corners that has brought record highs over much of the western CONUS.
This will support lake effect clouds and spotty showers east and southeast of Lake Ontario, while high pressure will provide MAINLY fair dry weather to the remainder of the region.
944 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2020 (Issued 944 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2020) High pressure will bring a pleasant day to southern Wisconsin. We will watch an area of high pressure slowly approach the area today and cross the area overnight and then shift slightly to our east for Wednesday. The ridge axis will be across our area tonight with cool temps and the associated light wind regime. With the high off to the east on Wednesday we should start to see a return flow develop, albeit on the weak side.
Severe chances overall look relatively low but the highest deep layer shear will probably exist over areas around and west of the James valley where mid-level winds are expected to be strongest through the period. Temperatures will favor above normal both today and Wednesday given continued mid-level ridge just off to the west and dry adiabatic mixing up to near H85 both today and Wednesday. The large ridge will remain over the western U. and Canada, with the area of high pressure over the desert southwest.
248 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2020 (Issued 248 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2020) Tonight through Wednesday night: High pressure will bring continued pleasant weather through Wednesday. A lake breeze will move inland late morning or early afternoon, with somewhat cooler conditions near the lake.
1145 AM MDT Tue Aug 18 2020 08Z upper level analysis has large ridge over the Great Basin region with northwest flow across the Northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure is located across the upper midwest with weak trof developing in the lee of the Rockies. Great Basin upper ridge will dominate the weather pattern for much of the week into the weekend.
340 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020 High pressure will keep conditions dry through the remainder of the week.
With slightly cooler temperatures aloft, and the addition of increased low and mid level moisture, we expect to see an areal increase of afternoon and evening thunderstorms, mainly along a low level convergence axis from Douglas to Cheyenne in the afternoon, then across the Nebraska Panhandle in the evening where storms will transition to.
122 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020 Cooler, drier and less humid weather will prevail today with mostly sunny skies. Warmer weather is ahead the rest of the week; however, the dry weather will continue with highs in the 80s. Otherwise, cooler and drier air will continue to spread over the Great Lakes region through Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure builds east. The large upper level high over the southwest CONUS will try to build northeast as short wave energy moves into the area.
High pressure will bring clear skies tonight and mostly sunny skies on Wednesday. Lows will be in the 50s and highs in the lower 80s.
145 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2020 A warm front across the central Dakotas has sparked a few thunderstorms over SD this morning. As the warm front advances eastward slightly by tonight, a few storms may approach far western MN. Southerly flow strengthens for Wednesday as the high pushes off to the east.
An Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect for the lower valleys, and Heat Advisories for most of the remainder of SW Idaho today.
Middle TN remains sandwiched between two upper level ridges with some general troughiness over the region.
Should otherwise remain dry and near normal through Wednesday with tonight's lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s and tomorrow's highs in the low-to-mid 90s.
205 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2020 Upper ridge to the west and a trough to the east has resulted in weak northerly flow across the area. ECMWF remains most bullish on developing little if any precip through the period as upper flow remains rather weak over the area and quality moisture from the gulf is cut off with a deepening trough to the east. Warmer temps are expected this weekend as southerly surface winds return to the region.
1101 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020 An upper level trough will remain over the area today, with a few isolated showers possible, mostly across the north. Dry and quiet weather expected on Wednesday as high pressure pushes into the Northeast U. 330 AM Update An upper level trough will remain over the region through the day today. Cool/moist NW cyclonic flow will produce scattered to broken clouds this afternoon and as a weak short wave pivots around the trough. The upper trough pushes eastward tonight as surface ridging and drier air builds into the region. High pressure will remain overhead tomorrow, but temperature will remain cool with only low 70s expected for highs by the afternoon.
Albeit, southerly return flow will act to feed in slightly warmer temperatures and a tad bit more moisture into the area on Wednesday.
340 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020 GOESR water vapor imagery and 500mb height analysis showed an upper level trough over eastern Ontario and Quebec with strong ridging continuing over the western U. The upper level ridge over the western U. S will creep eastward some as the upper level trough begins to weaken over the next few days. Weak isentropic lift develops tonight and lingers though Wednesday as a mid level warm front stalls over the area. Behind said weekend activity, the GFS is depicting much cooler temps ushering in, with the ECMWF and CMC a bit more muted in this regard.
/issued 956 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2020/ A weak cold front is moving across the mid-South at this time. Strengthening northerly winds will allow high temperatures to be a few degrees cooler than yesterday.
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Hot and mainly dry conditions to persist across the area, with the upper level ridge having shifted a little farther west and settling into the 4-corners region. This northerly flow aloft allows for slightly cooler temperatures and a reduced cap.
(This evening through Wednesday) Closed upper high across the western U.
The upper ridge in place over the western U. will flatten somewhat through the next couple of days as a series of short wave troughs ejects out of the upper low over the gulf of Alaska and work their way across the U. The apex of the ridge will also move from the Rockies over more of the High Plains and Plains states during this time. High pressure remains at the surface over the Plains states with a lee trough remaining generally in place over eastern Colorado. This area of enhanced surface convergence may help additional storms develop across the central High Plains region late each day that may then continue into the late evening and overnight hours as they move into an area of more southeasterly near surface flow where dewpoints are in the lower 60s.
Only fly in the ointment looks to be with a mid level trof/weakness that may continue to remain nearly stationary over our region, esp over our se counties. Will see how it goes tomorrow before making any drastic changes to Thu max temps, though it will still be little cooler than normal at most locations. The period starts out with a mid/upper level trough axis over the region.
The amplified high pressure continues its hold over the western half of the U. with troughing over the East Coast. This leaves our area in northwest flow aloft, helping us stay cooler than normal this week. High pressure is moving in from the north at the surface, which is also helping us not only stay cooler, but also dry with low humidity.
Light showers may linger overnight south of the region as the low slowly slides east, mainly resulting in cloudier conditions south of Pittsburgh.
1232 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2020 (Today and tonight) Light northeast winds will bring relatively drier air across Oklahoma through tonight Just some high clouds are expected to move south around the eastern side of the Great Basin upper high. There is a very low chance that thunderstorms will arrive to northwestern Oklahoma after midnight from the high plains of Colorado.
More monsoonal moisture aloft looks to move into the area on Wednesday, which despite being under ridging still, will help to slightly cool things off and allow dewpoints to rebound every so slightly.
High pressure of 1021 mb over the Upper Midwest to the Upper Peninsula of Michigan this afternoon will find itself over the area by Wednesday afternoon into night. is collocated with the highest dew points in the upper 50s.
313 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020 The mid/upper level troughing will persist over the eastern U. south into the central Gulf of Mexico through midweek then retrogrades into the western gulf late in the week and weakens over the weekend as ridging gradually builds over Florida from the east.
Dewpoints in the mid 60s and clearing skies should allow most areas to dip into the low 70s with the more urbanized areas holding onto a bit warmer temps in the mid 70s. South Central Texas will still be on the eastern fringes of the high and could see northeast winds around 10-15 mph for Wednesday afternoon.
After temperatures bottom out in the mid 50s to low 60s tonight, Wednesday will be a degree or two warmer than today with lighter winds and less cloud cover.
Similar conditions expected again on Wednesday with a sw flow producing the highest coverage of storms near the east coast by late afternoon.
It is a typically hot and humid August afternoon in the Florida Keys, with current air temperatures in the lower 90s and dewpoint temperatures in the mid to upper 70s yielding heat indices of 101-106F.
Widely scattered sprinkles have been rounding the ridge this morning, coincident with a jet streak and some mid-level WAA. No ridge riding waves will blemish the day or night.
A cold front moving into the southern Appalachians will cause scattered showers to develop tonight and Wednesday morning. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 88 67 86 68 / 20 60 20 70 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 85 66 84 68 / 30 60 20 60 40 Oak Ridge, TN 67 85 65 86 67 / 30 50 20 60 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 81 62 82 64 / 40 70 20 60 40.
Dry high pressure will maintain VFR at all terminals throughout this TAF package. /issued 957 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2020/ Deep northerly flow is noted over the forecast area between an upper level ridge out west and an upper level trough along the east coast.
1120 AM MDT Tue Aug 18 2020 A subtropical ridge centered over east-central Nevada is expected to drift southwest over the next couple of days. Weak disturbances rotating around this high will give some chances of mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms. Although temperatures will be slightly cooler today would still expect a few locations to tie or hit new record highs. The main stories for the period revolve around the large ridge near the Four Corners that has brought record highs over much of the western CONUS.
313 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2020 High pressure will bring dry conditions, fairly low humidity, and slightly below normal temperatures to central Illinois the next few days. For Wednesday, highs should only reach the low 80s, a few degrees below normal, with dewpoints likely remaining below 60 degrees, several degrees drier than normal. The high pressure axis should pivot over northern and central IL much of the remainder of this week keeping dry conditions and light east to northeast winds, limiting any return of moisture.
This airmass will maintain cool temperatures areawide with high temperatures on Wednesday forecast to range from the mid 80s across southern Arkansas to the lower 90s across deep east Texas. Otherwise, northerly flow aloft due to an upper-ridge across the western half of the CONUS to maintain dry conditions through the short-term period.
With the frontal boundary through the area by Wednesday, we come under the influence of the ridge to our west so chances for precipitation decrease.
High pressure will continue over the area through the period with light winds and VFR conditions. Today Through Wednesday Night An upper ridge is centered over Utah will continue to provide northerly flow over the Plains. An upper trough over the eastern U. The ridge will remain stationary through Wednesday and the pattern will remain the same over Arkansas.
Strong high pressure aloft centered over the Great Basin will maintain hot temperatures and dry conditions across the region through midweek. High pressure remains centered over southwest Utah this morning. This high will remain steadfast through the day, with hot temperatures, similar from those reported yesterday, expected once again. This allow isolated and mostly weak showers to initiate off the higher terrain of northern Utah this afternoon.
324 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020 Influence of a thermal trough with h850 temperatures ranging between 7-10C and northerly surface flow have kept temperatures in check today, with the forecasted highs in the low to mid 70s now in place across most of SE MI. This will again support slightly cooler than normal temperatures with temperature highs in the mid to upper 70s with continued dry weather. Otherwise, return flow from the advancing high will start to usher in warmer air across Michigan from west to east after 18Z Wednesday, with a tighter baroclinic zone and better moisture quality found north of the cwa, across northern lower Michigan and into the Upper Peninsula.
Pattern synopsis/forecast: Quiet the amplified upper level pattern found out there early this afternoon, consisting of near record setting upper level ridging centered across the Intermountain West (H5 heights pushing 600 dam across Utah!) and deep downstream troughing across northeast NOAM. Surface features responding about as one would expect given upper level pattern, with seasonably strong high pressure building into the western Great Lakes. deep layer northwest flow found across northern Michigan early this afternoon, providing dry conditions and temperatures that are a bit on the cooler side of normal for this time of year. with only a gradual relaxation of overhead troughing as we head into the middle of the week. with readings remaining just a bit warmer near the big waters. Warmer with Shower Chances.