Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A return southerly flow rounding the western periphery of the ridge, along with more sun breaking out, has continued a warming trend across the Valley. Water vapor channels views, especially the mid/high altitude levels indicated troughing over the Southern High Plains and adjacent Rockies. An area of low pressure that was forming over the NM/TX border should continue moving to the east, reaching eastern Oklahoma towards daybreak Saturday. A southerly flow returning moisture across the region, and broad lift east of this low will bring more clouds, and increased chances of showers across the Valley in the overnight. Despite clouds and rain chances, a warmer atmosphere will make for not as cool conditions, with lows ranging from the upper 40s over NE Alabama to lower 50s elsewhere. High temperatures should recover into the lower 70s areawide on Sat.
Precip will become more widespread overnight as lift become more vigorous with the trough nearing the region. Widespread showers will continue through Saturday morning, particularly across the southeastern two-thirds of the forecast area, as the upper-level trough progresses eastward over the mid to lower Mississippi River Valley. Showers will gradually come to an end from west to east during the late morning into afternoon as the trough axis advances east of the region.
The low continues to move eastward and a ridge starts to build in.
100 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021 (Today and tonight) Low level moisture continues to stream north into the area, ahead of an approaching upper level trough.
Otherwise, northern periphery of high pressure/dry low-levels will maintain vfr conditions while elevated mixing depths produce southwest winds with gusts around 20 knots during daylight hours. Despite the increasing midday cloud cover, moderate WSW flow will allow for temperatures to push to around normal in the low 60s. Southerly winds weaken tonight but widespread clouds will still allow for a relatively milder night, in comparison to previous nights, with lows falling down into the low 40s. Some additional light scattered showers/drizzle are possible early Saturday night mainly over the Saginaw Valley and Thumb as trailing cold front from the northern wave swings across the lower peninsula.
Chances for precipitation will taper off this evening as the trough continues to move to the east and a ridge sets up to the west. A lee trough is expected to develop over southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas in the afternoon and evening.
There is a back edge to the convection associated with the upper trough near the western Colorado border. Models have the upper trough east of the CWA this evening with northwesterly flow aloft expected. On Saturday, the upper level flow will become weaker and zonal as flat upper ridging moves in. For temperatures on Saturday, readings look to be 3-6 C warmer than today's highs.
138 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021 An upper level trough with a slightly positive tilt was making its way across New Mexico early this afternoon. As this trough approaches the area and moves overhead this evening it will take on more of a neutral tilt. Subsidence will then quickly swing in aloft as the trough axis moves overhead this evening. A notable low level theta-e ridge was advecting northward into the Rolling Plains this afternoon. This theta-e ridge will likely bend back to the northwest in the low level wind convergence zone across the southeastern into south-central Texas Panhandle. A cold front will follow this evening and overnight shifting breezy winds to the north. A low amplitude ridge will then move overhead on Saturday leading to a beautiful day.
A cold front has surged southward and is draped across central Nebraska northeastward into eastern South Dakota. Most areas in the higher elevations of the central and northern Black Hills could see 1 to 3 inches of snow before precipitation wanes late this evening. The aforementioned wave/upper trough axis will quickly shift eastward by Saturday morning with upper ridging building into the area with associated warm air advection.
350 PM EDT Fri Apr 23 2021 Low pressure will over the northern Maritimes will move east toward the open north Atlantic. High pressure will then build across the region Saturday from the west than move east Saturday night.
Temperatures continue to fall behind the cold front this afternoon. A few light rain or snow showers are still possible behind this cold front through this evening. Warm air advection and energy aloft in weak ridging/zonal flow will be the focus for some rain and snow Saturday night ahead of a lee side low.
A line of storms will develop tomorrow afternoon along a cold front and could contain gusty winds and some hail. The low will continue to move eastward and a ridge will start to build in behind it.
As a transistory ridge builds into the Great Basin, WAA allows temperatures will warm by 5-10 degrees through the short term. Thus, in addition to the tightened pressure gradient near the surface, higher winds will be mixed down from aloft thanks to the higher than normal mixing heights. There are hints of the low potentially closing off along the coast, but it doesn't look to affect the evolution. There will be additional energy forcing the trough to dig over southern California. Warmer than normal temps will allow for deep mixing and therefore strong winds at the surface. The highest gusts seem to be concentrated in northeast Utah and northwest Colorado, but generally high elsewhere as well.
Cooler again tonight with overnight temperatures in the low to mid 60s, expect along the Treasure Coast where lows will be in the upper 60s.
As a transitory ridge builds into the Great Basin, WAA allows temperatures will warm by 5-10 degrees through the short term. Thus, in addition to the tightened pressure gradient near the surface, higher winds will be mixed down from aloft thanks to the higher than normal mixing heights. There are hints of the low potentially closing off along the coast, but it doesn't look to affect the evolution. There will be additional energy forcing the trough to dig over southern California. Warmer than normal temps will allow for deep mixing and therefore strong winds at the surface. The highest gusts seem to be concentrated in northeast Utah and northwest Colorado, but generally high elsewhere as well.
Rain showers below 7kft, snow showers above 7kft and along the Pine Ridge.
Mild and partly sunny weather will give way to much cooler and wetter weather this weekend.
A south wind with gusts to 20kts is expected to develop later tonight followed by a wind shift to the nw with gusts to 25KTs with the passage of a cold front Saturday as well. A warm front will begin lifting northward into the CWA this evening into tonight, with a cold front eventually dragging east through the CWA late Saturday afternoon. Locations along the Highway 84 corridor will see the better threat of severe storms. Much of this pends on whether our airmass can recover fast enough, before the cold front itself pushes through.
752 PM EDT Fri Apr 23 2021 Dry weather will continue tonight as high pressure moves east. Low pressure advancing across the Tennessee Valley is forecast to bring widespread showers Saturday into Saturday night.
Can not rule out a light showers over Mohave County and the lower Colorado River Valley this evening.
Other than the switch back to the cooler side, overall forecast impacts look low through the short term. Precipitable water values are better over southeast and east central South Dakota, where WPC shows the best chance for accumulating snow over the higher elevation of the Sisseton Hills.
High pressure will slide east and southeast through the overnight, leading to winds clocking around to the southeast towards dawn. Meanwhile, an intensifying low pressure system across Texas will lead to an enhance pressure gradient across our region. Therefore moderate to fresh breezes will persist into Saturday before high pressure moves sufficiently east away from our area Saturday afternoon and evening.
/issued 138 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021/ An upper level trough with a slightly positive tilt was making its way across New Mexico early this afternoon. As this trough approaches the area and moves overhead this evening it will take on more of a neutral tilt. Subsidence will then quickly swing in aloft as the trough axis moves overhead this evening. A notable low level theta-e ridge was advecting northward into the Rolling Plains this afternoon. This theta-e ridge will likely bend back to the northwest in the low level wind convergence zone across the southeastern into south-central Texas Panhandle. A cold front will follow this evening and overnight shifting breezy winds to the north. A low amplitude ridge will then move overhead on Saturday leading to a beautiful day.
915 PM EDT Fri Apr 23 2021 Dry weather is expected through part of Saturday under high pressure.
653 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021 (This evening through Saturday) With the approach of an upper trough from New Mexico, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across some of our eastern counties this afternoon, ahead of a dryline. As the upper trough shifts quickly east across the southern Plains and Texas, a weak cold cold front will move south across our area late tonight and early Saturday morning. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s across northern and eastern parts of our area, and in the lower 80s across our southern counties and southern Concho Valley.
722 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021 Light snow was falling at Mobridge this evening along with good returns on rapid city's radar moving into our western cwa. Temperatures continue to fall behind the cold front this afternoon. A few light rain or snow showers are still possible behind this cold front through this evening. Warm air advection and energy aloft in weak ridging/zonal flow will be the focus for some rain and snow Saturday night ahead of a lee side low.
636 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021 A disturbance embedded within an upper trough across the Northern Plains will move across north central Nebraska tonight. Lows from the upper 20s northwest to the lower 30s southeast. The exception will across far southwest, from near 60 to the lower 60s. A warm front will lift across northern NE Saturday night as a weak disturbance moves across a flattened upper ridge.
732 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021 Light snow was falling at Mobridge this evening along with good returns on rapid city's radar moving into our western cwa. Temperatures continue to fall behind the cold front this afternoon. A few light rain or snow showers are still possible behind this cold front through this evening. Warm air advection and energy aloft in weak ridging/zonal flow will be the focus for some rain and snow Saturday night ahead of a lee side low.
730 PM EDT Fri Apr 23 2021 Low pressure crosses this weekend bringing widespread rain midday Saturday into Saturday evening. High pressure to start the next work week. If skies clear out enough for sufficient radiational cooling, sheltered valleys will have the opportunity to drop below freezing, especially within the brief period of time noted on forecast soundings where boundary layer winds slacken.
924 PM EDT Fri Apr 23 2021 High pressure centered over the southeast United States will persist over the Ohio River Valley through tonight. Low pressure over the southern Plains will move northeast towards the area at the same time a low pressure developing near Lake Superior begins to move east towards the area.
It is important to note that some of the high resolution models have continued to show isolated development later this evening (in the 6 to 9 pm time frame) as the dryline approaches from West Texas. The cold front associated with the passing upper level trough will move across the region during the overnight and into the early morning hours Saturday. With the loss of the cloud cover, temperatures will warm through solar radiation with highs ranging from the low 80s to the mid 90s. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible for locations along and east of the I-10/37 corridor as a result of combination of the low RH values and moderate winds.
707 PM EDT Fri Apr 23 2021 High pressure centered over the southeast United States will persist over the Ohio River Valley through tonight. Low pressure over the southern Plains will move northeast towards the area at the same time a low pressure developing near Lake Superior begins to move east towards the area.
1020 PM EDT Fri Apr 23 2021 Low pressure crosses this weekend bringing widespread rain midday Saturday into Saturday evening. High pressure to start the next work week. Also slightly adjusted temperatures to better represent current observations as a few areas are trending a warmer side this evening. If skies clear out enough for sufficient radiational cooling, sheltered valleys will have the opportunity to drop below freezing, especially within the brief period of time noted on forecast soundings where boundary layer winds slacken.
Windy conditions will continue through the evening behind a Pacific cold front and any showers tapering off. Winds won't be as strong on Saturday with slightly warmer temperatures than today's readings.
852 PM EDT Fri Apr 23 2021 An area of low pressure will slide across the region on Saturday.
There is a cold front currently moving across the area with rain and snow showers, mainly across the north. This system will exit the area tonight, leaving slightly cooler temperatures in its wake. There will be a brief period of dry weather tonight and Saturday morning, as a transitory ridge builds into the region.
745 PM EDT Fri Apr 23 2021 Dry weather is expected through part of Saturday under high pressure.
The highest totals have occurred over East Arkansas and the delta area of north Mississippi where 1 to 1. Even where the highest totals exist this accounts for only about 25% of flash flood guidance. The trough axis associated with this storm system should shift into middle Tennessee and Alabama mid afternoon resulting in even less chance of thunderstorms.
Precip will become more widespread overnight as lift become more vigorous with the trough nearing the region. Widespread showers will continue through Saturday morning, particularly across the southeastern two-thirds of the forecast area, as the upper-level trough progresses eastward over the mid to lower Mississippi River Valley. Showers will gradually come to an end from west to east during the late morning into afternoon as the trough axis advances east of the region. At low levels, flow is expected to become increasingly southerly with a ridge axis shifting east of the region and a weak warm front lifting north of the region.
But otherwise it is shaping up to be a swell day across the forecast area with clearing skies and temps warming into the upper 60s as upper ridging builds overhead and the weekend warming trend commences.
Temperatures in the island communities are in the mid to upper 70s and the dew point values hover in the lower 70s, making it feel quite muggy outside. A low pressure system over the central United States is affecting much of the Mississippi Valley and surrounding areas, producing strong to severe thunderstorms. The high pressure system currently between the United States and Bermuda is expected to hastily depart toward the central Atlantic.
245 AM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021 Cold front sliding across the local area this morning, with a smattering of light pcpn just ahead of it. A ripple in the upper level flow expected to move along with the warming, with some sloping frontogenetic lift added to the mix, extending NE from a sfc warm front. The better forcing is generally focused across MN into northwest WI, and thus so is the higher QPF.
Mesoanalysis shows steepening mid level lapse rates ahead of the trough over Kansas as well as 200-250 J/kg of MUCAPE and around 30 kts of effective shear this afternoon at 19Z. Moisture transport vectors favor east central and southeast Kansas and continue to expect the highest QPF over east central and southeast Kansas into western Missouri tonight. As the mid level trough axis shifts eastward of the area Saturday morning bringing an end to precipitation by mid morning southeast of I-35. Expect to see temperatures about 10 degrees warmer than today on Saturday with a mix of sun and clouds. Good warm air advection on Sunday amid amplified ridging across the southern and central Plains will send temperatures back into the 70s.
The low temperature forecast appears to be on track, with most locations reaching the u40s-l50s. High temperatures should recover into the lower 70s areawide on Sat. Highs to start a new week should warm into the lower 70s, and lows in the upper 40s. High pressure during the Mon/Tue timeframe should shift off of the east coast, bringing a southerly flow and a warming trend.
316 AM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021 Benign weather is expected today as a weak mid-level ridge builds into the CWA. 0630Z water vapor imagery analyzes the ridge axis over the Great Basin, with a fairly pronounced subsidence layer (also observed on the 24/00Z RAOBs from ABQ, EPZ, and FGZ) that is beginning to advect overhead.
1242 AM EDT Sat Apr 24 2021 Low pressure will remain near Labrador overnight. High pressure will then build across the region Saturday from the west then move east Saturday night.
A dry cold front will move through the area this morning. High temperatures today are forecast to range from the low 80s across the north to low to mid 90s across the south and west. High temperatures are forecast to be a few degrees warmer on Sunday.
Sunday will mark the beginning of brief warmup as upper level ridging will amplify over the area as a large scale trough digs in over the western CONUS.
The temperature forecast today leans on the cooler NAMnest plus bias correction for highs mostly in the 50s. Warm moist air will continue to invade the region tonight and the model consensus suggests a warm front in conjunction with a weak upper air disturbance will be sufficient to set off a round of showers late tonight, mainly along and north of highway 20.
A low pressure system will skirt the area to the south, bringing rain chances to areas south of Pittsburgh Saturday evening.
By midnight tonight, forecast sounding profiles indicate sub-freezing wet bulb temperatures for the James River Valley and east. A low pressure system will be over the Rockies Sunday evening, then gradually pushes northeastward Sunday night, with an area of precipitation north of it over the Dakotas.
A mid- and upper-level short- wave trough will move eastward across the the Mid South and Southeast today. Have leaned toward warmer ECS temperatures today with a blend of guidance overnight and Sunday. Atwell High pressure then pushes into the area Sunday afternoon bringing with it another round of dry weather.
Additional patchy fog may develop over the next several hours along and east of a BMQ-SAT- PEZ line, ahead of a pre-frontal trough/dry line. A cold front will move through the region between 12Z-16Z.
Despite some weak returns on radar, precipitation was not reaching the ground, due to dry air in the lower atmosphere. These were the result of WAA ahead of an approaching cold front. Clouds will thicken and lower as a cold front moves through the region overnight. Lows tonight should range from the middle 30s far northwest to the lower to middle 40s southeast. Highs will range from the upper 30s and lower 40s northwest to the lower to middle 50s southeast.
257 AM EDT Sat Apr 24 2021 Low pressure crosses south of the area today, bringing widespread rain midday into this evening. High pressure to start the next work week. 06Z surface analysis shows high pressure sliding off of the SE coast, with low pressure situated across the Southern Plains, just west of Dallas, TX. Low pressure is progged to move ENE throughout the day on Saturday, tracking south of the region, before sliding off the east coast near daybreak Sunday. Wind gusts of 20-30 mph will be possible across the higher terrain. Upper level ridging will follow to begin the new work week along with much warmer weather. Ridging takes hold into mid week with strong WAA allowing temperatures to soar into the lower to perhaps mid 80s.
/15/ By Sunday morning, all of the precipitation will be east of our region and high pressure will be wedging south into the region from the north.
Light snow was falling at Mobridge this evening along with good returns on Rapid City's radar moving into our western CWA. Temperatures continue to fall behind the cold front this afternoon. A few light rain or snow showers are still possible behind this cold front through this evening. Warm air advection and energy aloft in weak ridging/zonal flow will be the focus for some rain and snow Saturday night ahead of a lee side low. It won't be until the latter half of the week that we start to see drier, warmer conditions return.
342 AM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021 (Issued 342 AM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021) Today through Sunday: A few showers are possible today as a cold front moves through southern Wisconsin. Skies will clear out tonight and winds will become lighter, allowing temps to drop to near or just below the freezing mark.
227 AM EDT Sat Apr 24 2021 It will remain dry and be even warmer today before some rain showers occur late tonight into Sunday morning as a cold front crosses the region.
High pressure, while still in control of the weather today, will begin to break down ahead of an approaching low pressure system. A weak high pressure with southeasterly winds should be able to hold on through the first part of the weekend with low-level moisture remaining enough to support a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for Saturday.
Better chances for more widespread light showers now look to be on the northern wave's cold front that will swing across the region late this evening/tonight. Cooler air behind the front/wave still expected on Sunday with 850mb temps falling to around 0C, perhaps a degree or two below. Highs Sunday will only get into the low to mid 50s as a result.
Later Saturday night through Sunday sees an elevated warm front bring an upglide precipitation event across the CWA.
Min temps will generally be in the 30s, which is below average but a few to several degrees warmer than last night.
Short term models show the stratus persisting/expanding through sunrise, which is expected to hold temperatures above freezing, from the mid 30s northwest to the mid 40s southeast.
357 AM EDT Sat Apr 24 2021 A cold front is just starting to form over in Texas. Next work week in generally is looking pretty quiet as high pressure settles back in across the state with plenty of sunshine.
An upper ridge will move east of the area tonight as an upper disturbance moves through Oregon. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler. This is out ahead of the main trough which will track across northern CA on Sunday. The chance for showers continues through Sunday night as the trough crosses into northern NV.
Tonight-Sunday: Warm front shifts north towards our CWA out of SD late tonight by 12Z. Precip type is complicated tonight-Sunday morning by temperatures that will tend to hover near or above freezing in our south due to insulation and WAA late tonight/Sunday morning before temperatures warm back to near or above 40 midday Sunday. Wetbulb profiles would support at least a period of snow being favored, but this could still be dependent on the lowest part of the temp profile regarding type. Still, if the band were to hold together and be snow, the higher rates could result in limited visibilities and slick travel (at least briefly).
156 AM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021 Cloud cover across all of Middle TN has kept temperatures considerably warmer this morning than we've seen in the last few days.
Quiet weather is expected for the short term as high pressure builds into the area from the northwest.
Northerly winds will be a little gusty through the morning hours, but as lower level ridge settles in over the region, winds should become light this afternoon and this evening.