Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
615 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2017 A cold front will swing through early this morning bringing an end to the late September heat wave. Cooler air then settles in for the second half of the week into the upcoming weekend. Transition to more seasonal air underway as two frontal boundaries will move across the area today bringing cooler temperatures and lower humidity to the region. Kept with previous forecast idea of cooler temps northwest but still warm in southeast prior to arrival of cooler air. Lake temperatures have warmed substantially during recent warm spell and are sitting in the lower 70s, or around 20-23C. Moisture depth and inversion will be shallow, likely 4kft or less per NAM12 while large scale subsidence will be occurring as large high pressure over Midwest tries to build into the Lakes region.
216 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2017 The summer like weather continues on Wednesday with high pressure over the Region.
The synoptic setting revealed an upper level low centered across western Arizona, which continued to sponsor thunderstorm development across New Mexico and adjacent Southwest Texas. The southwest flow aloft continued to spread mid and high level moisture well into Kansas north of the front, but given how highly stable the lower troposphere is across our region, precipitation is having a very tough time making it back into southwest Kansas. The mentioned upper level low across Arizona will slowly lift northeast through the Rockies over the next couple of days, and this will eventually spread some rain showers far enough north and east across the Rockies, to reach far western Kansas.
631 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2017 Dry and warm high pressure will remain across the region today as Hurricane Maria moves slowly northward off the NC coast.
559 AM CDT Wed Sep 27 2017 The cold front has recently passed se of Lawrence county with nw winds starting to usher in cooler and drier air especially over nw CWA where Galesburg temperature was down to 60F and dewpoints in mid 50s. NW winds 10-15 mph and gusts to 20 mph will bring in cooler air, ending our week long heat wave with highs 90-95F. Highs today range from lower 70s nw of the IL river, to the lower 80s in southeast IL from I-70 se. Much cooler lows tonight ranging from mid 40s by Galesburg to lower 50s in southeast IL. 1027 mb high pressure over the northern Rockies and ridging se into the central Plains, will ridge into central IL tonight bringing the fair and cooler weather.
148 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2017 A cold front over the central Great Lakes will cross the area on Wednesday.
Upper low currently over North Dakota will continue to move northeast, and away from the region tonight. With wet ground in place and fog likely to form, temperatures will probably hold above freezing, but can't entirely rule out patchy frost and will include in grids.
537 AM CDT Wed Sep 27 2017 High pressure is quickly building into the area behind the cold front that pushed through yesterday. This will be evident as winds shift from the N to the NE as the center of the High moves over eastern Nebraska. Cooler air will settle into the region with some high and mid clouds in the afternoon limiting our heating for Wednesday putting high temperatures in the low 70s.
226 AM MDT Wed Sep 27 2017 The latest upper air analysis shows the closed low over the Desert Southwest continuing to deepen. East of the low atmospheric moisture was continuing to stream northeast over the middle of the CONUS. At the surface a high pressure was over the Central High Plains.
339 AM CDT Wed Sep 27 2017 Latest surface analysis early this morning shows that cold front has moved well southeast of the CWA. With clouds and cold air advection today, highs will be noticeably cooler than yesterday with highs in the 70s.
338 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2017 Dry and warm high pressure will remain across the region today as Hurricane Maria moves slowly northward off the NC coast.
Above normal temperatures will occur today with highs reaching the lower 90s inland and upper 80s near the coast. Lows tonight will range from the mid/upper 60s inland to the lower 70s coast with calm winds.
331 AM CDT Wed Sep 27 2017 At the surface, high pressure centered over Wyoming this morning. A cold front extends from eastern Ontario Canada to southern Missouri to west Texas. Aloft, a skinny ridge is noted over the lower Mississippi River Valley with upper lows over western Ontario and Arizona. Temperatures early this morning are generally in the lower and middle 70s. The weak upper trough near Florida will remain over that general area into the weekend. We won't see a true cold frontal passage this week, but more high pressure bridging into the area.
647 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2017 A narrow ridge of high pressure will remain centered over the Appalachians today, while Tropical Storm Maria tracks northward, offshore the southern middle Atlantic coast. Meanwhile, a dry cold front will approach from the northwest, then cross NC late Thu. At the surface, Tropical Storm Maria, now centered about 150 miles east of HSE, will continue a slow nwd motion offshore the srn middle Atlantic coast today, then turn enewd and increase in forward speed away from the middle Atlantic coast tonight, as the influence of the aforementioned trough/westerlies increases. The trailing cold front, now stretching swwd from Lake Huron to the lower MS Valley, will progress to the Northeast and middle Atlantic coast, swwd into the srn Appalachians, by 12Z Thu.
High pressure will build over the state and the Pacific Northwest as our short-lived blocking pattern (Rex Block) sets up. Indications are fog will be minimal with some patchy frost with typical colder spots this time of year seeing freezing temperatures.
143 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2017 A cold front will swing through early this morning bringing an end to the late September heat wave. Cooler air then settles in for the second half of the week into the upcoming weekend. The combination of the approach of a weak mid level trough, the deeper moisture axis, and 850 mb trough axis may yield a few showers across the northwest half of the area in the 04Z-10Z timeframe. A very strong cold front was just upstream over northwest Illinois.
Confidence remains high that the low pressure to our southwest will continue to head towards the four corners region today and as it does so, bring rain, showers, thunderstorms and accumulating snow for the higher mountains. Impacts will likely vary, again, depending on snow level so travellers should use caution if going over any of the high mountain passes this evening and overnight. Areas south of I-70 will be favored today with a shift northward after 9PM as the low pressure enters our CWA and continues moving northeastward.
Weak mid level ridging will continue to build into the region overnight.
349 AM CDT Wed Sep 27 2017 An area of high pressure over the region this morning is producing mostly clear skies and light winds. A few observations across the region are reporting temps in the mid 30s to the lower 40s.
202 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2017 Dry and warm high pressure will remain across the region today as Hurricane Maria moves slowly northward off the NC coast.
However, a cold front will push through the area late this afternoon through evening with clouds and perhaps a few showers. This front will usher in much cooler air which will persist through the weekend. For Wednesday into the evening, a surface cold front pushes through with little support aloft. Some surface based instability available along with low level convergence however the ridging aloft makes for weak mid level lapse rates and overall poor chances for significant convection. This period will be much cooler.
However, a cold front will push through the area late this afternoon through evening with clouds and perhaps a few showers. This front will usher in much cooler air which will persist through the weekend. For Wednesday into the evening, a surface cold front pushes through with little support aloft. Some surface based instability available along with low level convergence however the ridging aloft makes for weak mid level lapse rates and overall poor chances for significant convection.
240 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017 Cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma around mid morning pushing south to near the Red River by late afternoon.
238 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 Three cold fronts cross through the Mid Atlantic region this week.
Moisture advancing north in association with a short wave trough emerging out of the Northern Gulf of Mexico will move across the Great Valley today through tonight leaving a low vfr layer in place.
239 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017 Surface observations show this morning is much warmer than 24 hours ago with temperatures in the 30s and 40s due to cloud cover and a brisk 30kt LLJ. No significant weather or precipitation is expected over the next 7 days as a large trough remains in place over the eastern US keeping us in dry northwesterly flow aloft. A dry cold front will move across the area tonight into Wednesday, leading to much cooler high temperatures only reaching the 40s and lows dropping back into the 20s by Thanksgiving morning.
A low pressure system will skirt the US/Canadian border tonight/tomorrow and drive a cold front through the region. So with clear skies and light winds, will see lows in the low to mid 20s.
Southwest flow aloft will push another warm front through the region late tonight and Tuesday with rain. Upper ridge builds in a little stronger Wednesday with a break in the precipitation. Winds aloft will mix to the surface creating windy conditions across the Lower Columbia Basin and ridgetops in the rest of the CWA this evening. Another warm frontal system is located over southern OR this afternoon. Since eastern WA and OR remain in the warmer side of the these fronts temperatures will remain well above normal with highs increasing to the upper 50s in southeast WA and upper 50s to lower 60s in northeast OR Wednesday.
This banding is noted downstream from an intense 170 kt upper jet and this is probably contributing some inertial instability due to fast flow over the high terrain to the northwest. Sending out another quick update to keep the high wind warning going until 3am, due to strong wind speeds persisting. We are sending out a quick update to extend the high wind warning through 11pm. We sent a quick update to let the High Wind Warning expire for portions of Southeast Wyoming. Should see about 3-6 inches over the higher peaks later tonight into Tuesday morning before it tapers off. Much cooler east of the mtns Tuesday as the front backs up against the mtns. The front should begin to retreat back east Tuesday night as lee troughing develops over the high plains.
Accompanying sfc cold front will slide across the local area overnight, exiting southeast by 12z Tue.
Warmer low temperatures are expected tonight, though will go slightly below guidance due to an initially drier airmass across most areas. Warmer, above normal, high temperatures are expected on Tuesday ahead of a cold front that moves across our area late afternoon into evening.
100 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 High pressure yields to southwest flow overnight and Tuesday. Cold front crosses Tuesday night.
High pressure will continue to strengthen over Arizona through much of this week.
238 AM MST Tue Nov 21 2017 Water vapor shows trof axis moving from the Dakotas into the upper Midwest, and upper ridge over the western CONUS. Short wave at the base of trof resulting in band of light snow shifting southward through the cwfa. At the surface, high pressure building into the Northern Plains early this morning with brisk northwest winds and much colder temps. Warm advection will return in earnest tonight as lee trof quickly advances into eastern MT/WY. Much warmer temps and dry conditions then expected Wednesday and Thanksgiving as upper ridge axis shifts eastward across the Northern Rockies/Plains.
Surface ridging will move east across the Southeast underneath a broad full CONUS trough. Low level flow will become easterly today as the ridge moves east, resulting in an increase in low-level moisture and the development of low cloudiness.
843 PM PST Mon Nov 20 2017 High pressure aloft along the West Coast will bring unseasonably warm weather this week and mostly clear skies except for periodic high clouds.
Expect this trend to continue into tomorrow afternoon as cirriform clouds pour in from the north and move around the periphery of the high currently centered off the west coast of Baja California.
211 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 High pressure will move off the coast today. A cold front will move through Wednesday morning.
1213 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 A cold front will bring the next chance for precipitation tonight. Cold front will quickly swing through the area this evening. Any snow accumulation should be limited to the I 80 corridor and ridges. High pressure will then ensure a dry midweek and Thanksgiving holiday, with sub average temperatures.
Temperatures will range from the mid 30s in the west and far north, where skies will be clear, to the lower 40s in the east.
238 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 Gradient continues to tighten up between a strong ridge exiting to our east and an approaching cold front from the northwest. The increasing gradient has allowed for a nice range in temperatures across east Kentucky early this morning with decoupled eastern valleys sitting in the low to mid 20s and mixed ridges rising through the 40s. Surface moisture will also come up through the day and this could lead to a widely isolated shower in the vicinity of the higher peaks in southeast Kentucky (mainly Black Mountain). The models are in very good agreement regarding the cold frontal passage time and also in keeping eastern Kentucky dry tonight.
All areas are well into the 50s and 60s with several sites warming a few degrees warmer than forecast. This will all come to an end tonight though when the potent cold front moves south through the area. Wednesday morning will see high pressure ride down the axis of the plains states.
A cold front will invade New Mexico from the north early Tuesday morning with a sharp wind shift to the N and NE with gusts of 25 to 35 kt developing across the eastern plains. A ridge of high pressure will cross the southwest US this week keeping the weather dry. A back door cold front will produce gusty northeast winds across the eastern plains on Tuesday with speeds peaking near 40 mph along the eastern border. After cooler temperatures on Tuesday, readings will rebound during the latter half of the work week.
1241 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 Dry weather will continue tonight into the first part of Tuesday as southerly flow increases on the back side of retreating high pressure.
Mid/upper level troughing is beginning to amplify across the Gulf while a broad area of increasing forced ascent will begin to overspread our area late tonight and especially into the day Tuesday. As far as temps are concerned, overnight lows will be some 5-15 degrees warmer, depending on location, than what we saw this morning.
Trough digs southeast across the upper Midwest this morning, with much drier and colder air filtering southwest. Used the CONSMOS wind guidance to produce sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph through late morning, with the Buffalo Ridge area and Iowa Great Lakes likely to see sustained winds at wind advisory levels at times with a few gusts topping 45 mph. Drier and milder air return into the area on Wednesday as the high pressure moves southeast and flow shifts to a southerly component. Clouds will be increasing by mid-morning as southerly flow/warmer air starts to spread some mid to high clouds back into the area.
248 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 Increasing clouds today with a chance for a shower this afternoon as a cold front drops through the region.
420 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 A cold front will bring the next chance for precipitation tonight. Cold front will quickly swing through the area this evening and into the overnight hours. Minor snow accumulations are possible, but should be limited mainly to the I 80 corridor and ridges. High pressure will then ensure a dry midweek and Thanksgiving holiday, with sub average temperatures.
356 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge on the west coast, a trough on the Gulf Coast, a trough dropping into the upper Great Lakes this morning. This trough digs into the lower Great Lakes tonight. Main threat from this system will be gusty winds (possibly approaching advisory criteria in some spots) both ahead of and behind the low, but details with that will be dependent on track and strength which are both still in question. Cold front passing across the area overnight will be followed by the development of strong w to nw winds, -shsn and MVFR conditions. A strong low pressure system will track eastward just north of Lake Superior this morning.
1035 PM MST Mon Nov 20 2017 Fast moving Pacific wave will work across the northern and central zones tonight as it slides down the front side of strengthening Great Basin ridge. Dry and mild conditions will be in place through much of the Holiday weekend as a strong ridge of high pressure remains parked across the western U.
So, all in all, some locations as compared to the afternoon forecast package will have lows slightly warmer than previously forecasted while some locations will have overnight lows near previous forecasted values. A dry cold front will move in late in the period with a wind shift to NW.
Temperatures will warm quickly after sunrise, ahead of an approaching cold front. The cool weather will be short-lived with a warming trend beginning Thanksgiving Day as upper ridging amplifies to the west and slowly shifts east through the weekend.
As a disturbance moves into the area tonight, snow will move into Lake county and mainly the higher elevations of Chaffee county and the snow should continue into Tue afternoon. A few inches of snow accumulation can be expected over the higher areas in Lake county with a little less in Chaffee county. Temps will be quite a bit cooler on Tue, with highs in the 50s acrs the southeast plains and in the high valleys, which is around to a little above average.
South winds for much of the upcoming day will shift to the north late tomorrow and on into tomorrow night as a cold front moves on through and gradually clears the area out. but still thinking that the better rain chances will be during the after- noon tomorrow as a strong cold front approaches from the north. Models indicating the development of a highly amplified upper ridge out west, which should keep a fairly deep/dry NW flow in place over SE TX through the rest of the week (and into the weekend). Mostly clear skies along with highs in the mid 60s and lows in the lower 40s are on tap. Another cold front forecast on Sat should be mostly dry given the lack of return flow/moisture. The next cold front is expected to push off of the coast Tuesday night.
A cold front will cross the area late tonight into early Wednesday, accompanied by some rain showers briefly changing to snow showers, especially at higher elevations. After a sunny mild day, a cold front will move through the region late tonight followed by lingering lake effect snow showers and colder air on Wednesday. This along with warm air advection well ahead of approaching cold front will help temperatures reach upper 40s to mid 50s today; or 6 to 8 degrees above climatology for highs. Upper trough will be digging into the Central Great Lakes, which will enhance right entrance region of a jet aloft. High pressure will build across the area on Thanksgiving day allowing for a dry chilly day.
Bigelbach PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Amid some scattered virga showers over the northwestern and central zones of NE Montana, strong and gusty winds, associated with a potent cold front have pushed through the region today. The high temperature today was recorded during the latter morning hours, after which, temperatures began to steadily drop from north to south with the advance of this cold front. This cold spell, associated with a pronounced low pressure trough from the Canadian prairie, will be relatively short-lived for NE Montana. Wednesday through Thanksgiving Day, a strong high pressure ridge from the west will bring temperatures into our region well above normal.
A cold front will push south across the forecast late Tuesday night.
Unseasonably strong ridging continues to build into the region with the circulation center off the central Baja Coast and ridge heights lifting the storm track and upper jet well into the Pac NW and western Canadian Provinces.
Low temperatures will remain above freezing in the middle 30s. Clouds will increase on Tuesday as a cold front moves through the region.
A cold front is expected to move across the region overnight with a return to near normal temperatures this time of year on Tuesday. Highs will be nearly 25 degrees cooler than today, but will still be near or a few degrees above average with highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s and lows tonight in the 30s. Have, however, kept things dry as confidence in any precipitation is low with poor QPF correlation between models and the lowest few thousand feet of the column near the surface remain dry with 50% or less RH. Otherwise, upper ridge will amplify northward across the Rockies and be the dominant feature through the period.
Another warm front will bring more rain Tuesday night, again mainly to northern areas, but southern areas will also get some.
411 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 Fair and mild today with temperatures rising into the upper 40s to mid 50s ahead of an approaching cold front.
Tuesday will be mild ahead a cold front that will move through Tuesday night into Wednesday. Some thin high clouds will occasionally bleed over the ridge axis, otherwise clear to scattered skies are expected tonight with minimum temperatures in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Expect another shot of cold air to follow behind a cold front Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Temperatures falling below freezing and potential for light snow accumulation/melting-refreezing may create slick roads and areas of difficult travel overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday. An upper level trough will skirt just to the north of Pennsylvania early Wednesday.
Morning lows Tuesday should be a few degrees warmer than this morning, and readings will rise quickly in the morning before a cold front brings another shot of slightly cooler air into the region.
A cold front will pass through on Tuesday but will have little precipitation associated with it. Another cold front over the weekend will bring some rain and snow showers, although minimal travel impacts are expected at this time. The cold front on Tuesday is moisture starved as it comes through Michigan but models do suggest a band of rain showers developing along the front about the time it's exiting the state late in the day. The air behind the cold front late Tuesday and Tuesday night is plenty cold enough for lake effect, but as with the last few pushes of cold air the moisture is quite shallow. Surface ridging returns on Wednesday, although with the center of the high being south of Michigan and our low level flow remaining westerly, some lake effect cloudiness may linger.
Cirrus across the higher terrain has mostly exited the Lake Cumberland region, but more will be on the approach later tonight. Eastern valleys will keep cooler temperatures locked in place through later tonight or potentially early Tuesday morning with later arrival of the increasing pressure gradient. This will result in a deepening trough dropping into the Ohio Valley by Tuesday night. Consequently and with support from guidance went warmer in the west. Unfortunately winds will make it seem a little cooler than that.
Upper trough will swing through the MB/ON/MN border region this evening, focusing any forcing strong enough to produce precipitation far to our north. Only impact here will be the passage of the surface cold front and the gusty northwest winds that will arrive in its wake. Pressure gradient and with it the winds finally let up Tuesday night as high pressure builds in overhead. Amplified upper pattern off the Pacific coast once again spurs broad lee troughing across the western portion of the northern plains.