Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A strong cold front will move through Sunday morning with strong/gusty north winds expected through mid afternoon.
Upper level ridge slowly building into the region. Westerly flow over the top of the ridge is spreading mid and high level clouds across the forecast area this evening. As the ridge continues to build clouds will push northward and skies will become sunny during the day.
643 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 After a few active days, quieter and cooler weather is moving into the area. Subjective 12Z upper-air analysis indicates an upper-level trough in MB and a weak and broad trough in the southeastern US but generally zonal flow across the central US. A pocket of cooler mid-level air will work across the northern Plains to upper Midwest on Sunday, keeping temperatures below normal.
1153 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 After a few active days, quieter and cooler weather is moving into the area. Subjective 12Z upper-air analysis indicates an upper-level trough in MB and a weak and broad trough in the southeastern US but generally zonal flow across the central US. A pocket of cooler mid-level air will work across the northern Plains to upper Midwest on Sunday, keeping temperatures below normal.
931 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017 Update A cold front will move across Lower Michigan Sunday paving the way for a few days of much cooler and drier air across the state. Low pressure moves northeast toward the cwa and drags a cold front with it. Additionally, shear values near 40kts could result in strong to perhaps severe storms, especially over the southeast cwa ahead of the low. These showers and storms will linger into Sunday until the cold front moves through.
However, still very warm across West Central Texas this evening with temperatures in the lower 90s, including a few mid 90s. A cold front will pass through the KABI terminal by the late morning resulting in a wind shift to the north. An upper level trough will swing across the Plains on Sunday, sending a cold front into the Big Country Sunday morning. Compressional heating ahead of the front will result in hot temperatures, while much cooler temperatures are forecast behind the front along with gusty north winds. For now, the forecast was edged closer to the NAM solution, with the hottest temperatures across the southern half of the area and much cooler temperatures across the north half of the region.
1121 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 At H5 Ridge over the Desert Southwest and a strong Bermuda High. Closed upper low north of the Great Lakes. Surface cold front from Northern Michigan to southeast Kansas this morning and scattered thunderstorms along the front. Highs rebounding as upper ridge to the west moves east.
As far as the synoptic setup over the region, water vapor and upper air data shows Florida in between a low over the northern Gulf coast region and high pressure well to our northeast. At the surface, the high pressure axis remains over the southern part of the state with a relatively light low-level flow.
The main updates to the ongoing forecast were to increase cloud cover this evening and tonight as these high clouds continue to push towards the west/southwest as well as nudge up overnight lows a degree in response to the higher cloud cover. /ISSUED 341 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017/ Temps have warmed into the low to mid 90s inland this afternoon, and expect more of the same tomorrow, with a warm and humid airmass and upper level ridging in place.
649 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 Cold front lingering to the NW this afternoon moving closer to the region and will be driving tonights weather and into tomorrow. Air behind the front is not that much cooler and tomorrows highs are still expected in the upper 70s/lower 80s.
752 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017 Aviation A cold front will move across Lower Michigan Sunday paving the way for a few days of much cooler and drier air across the state. Low pressure moves northeast toward the cwa and drags a cold front with it. Additionally, shear values near 40kts could result in strong to perhaps severe storms, especially over the southeast cwa ahead of the low. These showers and storms will linger into Sunday until the cold front moves through.
642 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 At 3 PM, there are 3 cold fronts across Mid and Upper Mississippi River Valleys. The second cold front extends from near Green Bay to Cedar Rapids Iowa. The final cold front extends from the western tip of Lake Superior to Sioux Falls South Dakota. It is behind this cold front where temperatures fall into the 60s and 70s.
Lows in the Low to mid 70s. Expect a much more active Atlantic sea breeze, with activity pushing steadily inland as low levels continue to back slightly south of the westward-expanding nose of the ridge to the north.
A warm front will bring a few areas of light rain at times to the area tonight.
The cold front that is expected Sunday AM is now in OK Panhandle. A strong cold front will move through Sunday morning with strong/gusty north winds expected through mid afternoon.
A strong cold front will pass south through all three terminals early Sunday morning quickly turning winds from out of the south to north- northeasterly up to 30 mph sustained and gusting up to 40-45 mph with blowing dust possible during and after the front passes. The GFS MOS is right in the middle of the much cooler NAM and warmer ECMWF so will settle on those numbers, generally in the mid 80s with a few 90s in our border counties to the east and south.
722 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017 Another afternoon with isolated convection sticking mostly to the higher terrain in the area.
639 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 A closed upper low over northwest Ontario this afternoon will loosen its grip on the forecast area by Sunday as the main low center moves to southeast Ontario. Max temps will be cooler as well with plenty of clouds and showers around.
729 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 Satellite data showing an upper level disturbance continuing to sink southeast through the Dakotas this afternoon, associated with a low pressure system over Ontario. The main cold front has pushed just south of the CWA this afternoon, currently draped from central KS northeast into southern IA. Good agreement among models showing northwesterly flow building in the upper levels across the region, thanks to ridging building north over the western CONUS.
The low clouds will likely dissipate this evening leaving the cirrus canopy in place tonight. /ISSUED 341 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017/ Temps have warmed into the low to mid 90s inland this afternoon, and expect more of the same tomorrow, with a warm and humid airmass and upper level ridging in place.
604 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 At H5 Ridge over the Desert Southwest and a strong Bermuda High. Closed upper low north of the Great Lakes. Surface cold front from Northern Michigan to southeast Kansas this morning and scattered thunderstorms along the front. Highs rebounding as upper ridge to the west moves east.
A cold front will pass through the KABI terminal by the late morning resulting in a wind shift to the north. An upper level trough will swing across the Plains on Sunday, sending a cold front into the Big Country Sunday morning. Compressional heating ahead of the front will result in hot temperatures, while much cooler temperatures are forecast behind the front along with gusty north winds. For now, the forecast was edged closer to the NAM solution, with the hottest temperatures across the southern half of the area and much cooler temperatures across the north half of the region.
643 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 Widespread severe weather is still on track today along a strong cold front expected to push through the CWA this afternoon and well into the evening hours. Also, expecting to see dangerous heat levels across eastern Kansas and western Missouri today with continued increasing dew point values, combined with air temperatures rising into the low to perhaps mid 90s.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 89 72 83 / 10 30 60 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 87 70 79 / 10 30 60 80 Oak Ridge, TN 69 86 71 79 / 10 30 70 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 86 67 77 / 10 30 60 80.
Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s. A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea will approach the Yucatan Peninsula overnight. Farther north, an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across north central Florida tonight. Rain chances will increase overnight as the aforementioned broad area of low pressure approaches the Yucatan Peninsula.
341 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2017 The amplified trough over the Great Lakes will continue to swing toward the Eastern seaboard today, with the shower threat following suit with an eastward shift. The large scale flow looks to become much less amplified as we head through the longer term, with the eastern trough lifting out and modest ridging working into the central CONUS.
Tonight Through Thursday Cold front will continue to sink south of Arkansas this evening. Showers/storms associated with the dewpoint gradient behind the front will gradually shift southward through this evening, as high pressure pushes in. North American longwave pattern remains fairly amplified, with strong ridging over the west and a closed upper low dropping down into the Great Lakes region. This will make for meridional upper flow, which will continue to send cooler air into the region, leaving all but this evening dry, with very little cloud cover, and well below average temperatures.
332 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2017 WV imagery this morning showing a stagnant pattern with an anomalous upstream ridge across the wrn half of the CONUS and a deep longwave trof to the east. At the sfc, large area of high pressure was building southward into the Central Plains.
KMD 255 PM CDT Unseasonably cool weather will continue through tomorrow and beyond as a deep upper trough slowly moves across the upper midwest and Great Lakes regions. Any showers and much of the cloud cover will dissipate with sunset and temperatures should drop into the 40s across much of the CWA away from the Chicago metro urban heat island, where lows should remain in the lower 50s.
1103 PM MDT Tue Sep 5 2017 The 18Z HRRR Vertically Integrated Smoke model shows the current smoke from wildfires over the Pacific Northwest to remain over much of eastern Utah and western Colorado through Wednesday night as high pressure rebuilds over the west and keeps smoke trapped with no features to help move it out. Based on the overall upper level pattern, not much change exists until late Thursday afternoon/evening when the ridge of high pressure will shift slightly eastward and change the flow from a northerly direction to a southerly direction, helping to draw a little more moisture into the region.
320 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2017 An amplified upper level trough extended from north of Lake Superior southwest across northern MO into southeast KS early this morning. The upper trough will dig southeast into the mid and lower MS river valley by 12Z WED. It will feel cooler and drier Today with highs only reaching the mid 70s. There may be a few mid level clouds in the morning but these clouds will shift Southeast of the CWA by Noon as the H5 trough axis digs southeast across MO. Overnight lows will drop into the mid 40s across much of the area with a few locations dipping down into the lower 40s across the northern counties of the CWA. Highly amplified upper ridge across the western CONUS will remain parked across the Rockies, keeping the Plains in northwesterly mid/upper flow.
651 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2017 Currently - A deep layered mid latitude trough is amplifying over the eastern United States, and is suppressing eastwards a lower level ridge Atlantic ridge.
229 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2017 Pleasant conditions are expected to continue as high pressure dominates our weather at the surface. Higher in the atmosphere, northwesterly flow dominates aloft as we are sandwiched between the large upper level trough moving east and large upper level ridge parked over the western US. Highs are expected to be in the low 70s with lows tonight into tomorrow morning in the mid 40s to low 50s. This, along with the western ridge somewhat nosing over the area, will help warm temperatures into the upper 70s for Thursday and then low 80s for the remainder of the period.
331 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2017 Periods of showers are expected across the North Country through the end of the work week as a slow moving upper trough passes through the region.
313 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2017 Current surface analysis places high pressure over the northern into the central plains. Upper level analysis places ridge over the western United States and trough over the Great Lakes. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than yesterday, with light winds. Ridge axis gradually shifts over the area this week bringing a warming trend and dry conditions. A wave passes to the north to start the upcoming week flattening the ridge, but at this time no precipitation in expected to develop from this.
343 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2017 A series of troughs will drop southeast through the region through Thursday night.
650 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2017 A series of troughs will drop southeast through the region through Thursday night.
635 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2017 A cold front slowly crosses the local area through this evening. High pressure returns for Thursday afternoon into the upcoming weekend. A cold front is poised to enter the FA this morning. as trough aloft sharpens through the OH-TN Valleys. Trough aloft is slow to push E through the NE CONUS and mid-Atlantic region Thu night- Fri. Models showing a secondary cold front approaching from the NW by late Fri (which will reinforce the dry/comfortable conditions for the weekend). A secondary cold front crosses the FA Fri night (w/ limited moisture). High temperatures will primarily be in the low/mid 70s with lows ranging from the mid/upper 50s inland to low/mid 60s the coast.
The front will push to the east Thursday afternoon with an upper level trough crossing the region over the weekend. A cold front is currently becoming stationary along the Maine Coast. Later today an area of low pressure will develop along this front to the south of New England and begin to move northward along the front. The low is then expected to move across the region later tonight into Thursday. May see a fairly dry night tomorrow night bfr upr lvl trof and secondary cdfnt presses into CWA Fri aftn. Upr ridge wl build in drg the day Mon with temps settling out nr normal. For Waves: The primary waves system today will be southerly wind wave (6-7 feet/7 seconds) from a fetch across the Gulf of Maine to the east of a cold front.
Strong high pressure over the Western Atlantic will continue to dominate the weather pattern across South Florida through the end of the week.
Deep upper level trough axis extends from near James Bay thru Michigan into the Mid Mississippi Valley. pronounced upper level trough axis will slowly pivot thru Michigan today shifting east of our state tonight. another upper level trough will dig into Northern Michigan as we head into Thursday. with high temps only reaching into the low to mid 60s.
316 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2017 Plenty of cool, and dry air as evidenced by water vapor imagery, had filtered in behind the cold front from yesterday morning. Temperatures across the forecast region were running approximately 10-15 degrees cooler this morning than yesterday, which will make for a cool start to school today. As winds turn more southerly tomorrow, and we feel the effects of a slowing advancing ridge, temps will warm a bit closer to seasonal norms. NW flow tomorrow afternoon will allow thunderstorms to develop over portions of southeastern CO and the high terrain of NM.
317 AM MDT Wed Sep 6 2017 Similar weather expected today as we've seen lately with high pressure still in control. The broad area of high pressure looks to start breaking down and become more of a ridge thanks to a weak trough that will move across the US/Canadian border. This is not a big deal, in and of itself, but this meager switch will allow the anticyclonic winds around the high to start bringing in 'some' moisture into the area from the south. Models indicate a minor uptick in activity, increased cloud cover, and cooler temperatures for Thursday afternoon and evening.
318 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2017 A cold front will slowly push east of the area through the end of the week. High pressure will build over the area during the weekend. With the upper trough buckling overhead and a diffuse surface front draped across the area, periods of showers will continue through much of the day today. A strong wind gust over the lower Maryland portion of the bay can't be ruled out, however. At the surface, the cold front slowly drifts east towards the western Atlantic by Thursday morning. The upper trough axis lingers overhead, its forward progress halted by strong ridging over the northwest Atlantic. High pressure will reside over the area this weekend bringing some very pleasant early fall weather to the region. Highs in the lower 70s, lows in the lower 50s.
237 AM MDT Wed Sep 6 2017 08z surface analysis had high pressure over the CWA with some thin CI floating by. Temperatures have dipped into the mid 30s over southwest SD near center of anticyclone. Today and Thursday, upper ridge remains in place over the western US with trough over the east.
232 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2017 Expect showers and thunderstorms today and this evening along and ahead of a cold front.
Fire weather concerns A negatively tilted trough is setting the stage for a widespread outbreak of thunderstorms this afternoon through Thursday from the northern Sierra and far western NV to the Oregon border.
An approaching upper level system will push inland to our north late in the week and help maintain cooler temperatures with a slight chance of showers on Thursday.
235 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2017 A cold front slowly crosses the local area through this evening. High pressure returns for Thursday afternoon into the upcoming weekend. A cold front is poised to enter the FA this morning. as trough aloft sharpens through the OH-TN Valleys. Trough aloft is slow to push E through the NE CONUS and mid-Atlantic region Thu night- Fri. Models showing a secondary cold front approaching from the NW by late Fri (which will reinforce the dry/comfortable conditions for the weekend). A secondary cold front crosses the FA Fri night (w/ limited moisture). High temperatures will primarily be in the low/mid 70s with lows ranging from the mid/upper 50s inland to low/mid 60s the coast.
538 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2017 Cool weather with periodic shower chances can be expected until high pressure builds this weekend. Changes for the predawn update included further precip probability adjustments for areas east and south of Pittsburgh based on the latest radar trends of showers streaming up the flank of the deep, Great Lakes-to-Lower Mississippi Valley trough. Near term temperature is projected about 10 degrees under the averages given the flanking position on the parent trough and persistent boundary layer moisture/dewpoints.
315 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2017 Upper ridge located over the Intermountain West as a deep trough over the east extends from Canada down to the Gulf. The center of the ridge should shift SE the next couple of days as a trough comes off the Pacific. A weak cold front moved through the region yesterday bringing slightly cooler temps. As of early this morning dewpts in the 40s were still spreading into the area and pushing out the higher dewpts. Temps should be cooler today with highs in the 80s.
457 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2017 A cold front will slowly push east of the area through the end of the week. High pressure will build over the area during the weekend. With the upper trough buckling overhead and a diffuse surface front draped across the area, periods of showers will continue through much of the day today. A strong wind gust over the lower Maryland portion of the bay can't be ruled out, however. At the surface, the cold front slowly drifts east towards the western Atlantic by Thursday morning. The upper trough axis lingers overhead, its forward progress halted by strong ridging over the northwest Atlantic. High pressure will reside over the area this weekend bringing some very pleasant early fall weather to the region. Highs in the lower 70s, lows in the lower 50s.
537 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2017 Combination of cold mid level temperatures tied to expansive upper troughing and daytime heating will support a rapid expansion of diurnal clouds today. The upper trough will continue its progression eastward across the region today. The trough axis will be centered over the western Great Lakes by mid afternoon as northwesterly flow will continue to push the cold air into Michigan. The higher rain chances in the overnight hours will reside over the Thumb and Lake Huron. Forecast low temperatures to start Thursday morning will be in the mid to upper 40s and high temperatures in the low to mid 60s.
1203 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2017 High pressure across MT will settle south across Wrn Nebraska overnight.
A cold front will move into the area later today with showers and storms developing later this morning and afternoon. An upper trof will slowly move across the Great Lakes area extending southward into the northern Gulf of Mexico. This trof supports a surface cold front, initially across northern AL/GA, moving south into southern AL/GA western FL panhandle later this afternoon.
336 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2017 A strong 553 dm 500 mb low near Sault Ste Marie Canada with a deep upper level trof extending SSW over IL and mid MS river valley will continue influencing IL's weather next couple of days. Strong upper level trof axis shifts east to the IN/OH border early this evening and into the eastern Ohio river valley by daybreak Thu. Lows Thu night mostly in the lower 50s, with some upper 40s near the IN border.
Expect prevailing west-northwesterly flow to also continue today as a large area of high pressure remains over the Plains.
Poor air quality due to smoke will continue to be the main impact today as a ridge of high pressure results in stable conditions. More smokey and warm conditions will persist into Thursday under as the ridge pattern amplifies.
648 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2017 Cold front moves east of the Appalachians today. High pressure with drier and cooler weather behind the front for the remainder of the week. Cold front is still hung up on the mountains this morning, but should push off well to the east by late morning to early afternoon and showers will come to an end. High pressure builds in with cooler and drier air today, but lots of clouds still today with large field of cold air stratocu developing behind the front with upper trough overhead. Tonight will feel like a cool Fall night with upper 40s for lows in most areas and upper 30s in the higher elevation valleys across Pocahontas and Randolph Counties.
638 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2017 Cold front moves east of the Appalachians today. High pressure with drier and cooler weather behind the front for the remainder of the week. Cold front is still hung up on the mountains this morning, but should push off well to the east by late morning to early afternoon and showers will come to an end. High pressure builds in with cooler and drier air today, but lots of clouds still today with large field of cold air stratocu developing behind the front with upper trough overhead. Tonight will feel like a cool Fall night with upper 40s for lows in most areas and upper 30s in the higher elevation valleys across Pocahontas and Randolph Counties.
VFR conditions are expected the remainder of the day into tonight following yesterday's cold front passage. /28/ Cold front that was responsible for showers and storms yesterday afternoon into the evening hours continues to push south across the ArkLaMiss region this morning. With the large upper trough still in place over the eastern half of the country, tonight should be very pleasant and a night to open the windows and enjoy the cooler air. Clear skies, light northerly wind, dewpoints in the upper 40s/around 50 all spell overnight lows in the lower 50s north of I-20 and mid 50s south of I-20. /28/ For the beginning of the period a strong fall like amplified trough will begin lifting to the east.