Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Winds should begin to diminish by late this afternoon with the arrival of a cold front from the northwest. A trough was over the western U. with moisture streaming in ahead of the trough and spilling over the ridge over the upper Mississippi Valley. The trailing longwave trough moves through the Plains through tonight. This will trough will gradually usher in a cold front through the day. High clouds should increase this morning with the jet level support and mid clouds should increase this afternoon ahead of the longwave trough.
Pacific air continues to lift into the region ahead of cold front developing over the Dakotas. Southerly winds will eventually shift more westerly as the initial cold front sweeps into the are this afternoon. We should see a fair amount of high clouds across most of the area today with more lower clouds developing in the wake of the cold front late afternoon and evening west. The period will commence with the second of three cold fronts passing through the Upper Mississippi River Valley region. The second, originating from the same low pressure center in Ontario, will be dropping through central MN into northern SD.
/Issued 314 AM EST Fri Jan 26 2018/ High pressure is currently centered across the Middle Atlantic, with a wedge in place across much of the CWFA. The wedge is expected to hold tight across the northern CWFA through Saturday, even as a cold front approaches from the west. Do think that surface temps will be above freezing when any light precip starts, but will have to monitor the valleys across far NE GA. Temps are currently forecast in the middle 30s, and if temps cool off faster than forecast, will have to monitor for patchy freezing drizzle in the normally colder valleys.
224 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2018 High pressure will gradually slide offshore tonight. Warmer air returns for the start of the weekend as a southwesterly flow develops ahead of an approaching frontal system.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a ridge over the eastern half of the country and trough over the west with west-southwesterly flow over Texas. At the surface, there was high pressure centered over the southeastern US and winds across our CWA were light from the south to southeast. There was a cold front stretched across New Mexico. The upper level trough over the west will move across the plains during the is period. This will bring the cold front through Texas.
The higher elevations of the Ouachita/Ozark region were in the 40s, with mid 20s to mid 30s common elsewhere. Meanwhile, a weak upr level trof was lifting NEWD over Ern OK. Rain chances wl gradually incrs fm W to E overnight as the main upr trof/CDFNT apchs fm the W. Elsewhere, cooler and drier air wl advect into the area behind the front.
Available moisture will rapidly increase through the overnight hours with the approach of our next trof aloft and associated surface front.
Strong and gusty south winds are expected across the region today as a cold front approaches from the west. More light rainfall or drizzle is possible this evening ahead of the cold front moving through.
A cold front associated with this wave will also sweep across the state from northwest to southeast, ushering in a relatively cold airmass as lows will sink into the single digits above zero across the northwest and into the teens across the rest of western and central North Dakota. Upper level troughing continues to move east as a ridge amplifies over the northwestern states and nudges our way. At the surface, high pressure will slide southeast out of Canada and move slowly towards us through the weekend.
High pressure system over the mid-Atlantic states this afternoon will progress eastward tonight and this weekend.
As the high shifts further to the east and a system approaches from the west, winds will become southerly to southeasterly.
Because the low levels were quite dry only a trace has been observed for the most part. This area of clouds was associated with the main upper level trough and cold front in the Plains. Tonight: Cold front out west will be pushing into eastern IA and extreme northeast MO later this evening, then exit the dvn cwa after midnight.
243 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2018 A cold front has moved into western Minnesota this afternoon. There were stronger winds developing behind it, which will spread across Minnesota overnight, the main cold front, which will bring more Arctic air to the region, will arrive Saturday afternoon. The secondary cold front that is expected to move across central and southern Minnesota late Saturday afternoon, and evening, may have a few flurries associated with it.
Temperatures across the region have already warmed up into the lower 50s. With plenty of sunshine, we should see highs top out in the upper 50s to the lower 60s this afternoon. As we get into brisk return flow between high pressure along the East Coast and a cold front crossing the Plains, SSW winds will pick up today, and will gust into the 20-25 mph range this afternoon.
These clouds were located across the Upper Mississippi River Valley for much of this morning and they were associated with a short wave trough. For tonight, the meso models are in agreement that as the cold front encounters the 850-700 mb moisture that a band of rain showers will develop near the Mississippi River around 27. For Saturday, skies will be partly to mostly sunny through early afternoon and then the clouds will gradually increase ahead of a Canadian cold front. On Saturday night, a Canadian cold front and short wave trough will move through the region.
300 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2018 High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic region will move east and off the coast tonight.
Current temperatures are several degrees warmer than forecast lows this morning and only a few degrees from highs for this afternoon. There is a cold front moving through the forecast area today, mostly during the morning hours. Lows tonight will be cooler again.
215 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2018 High pressure will shift offshore tonight.
The other noticeable difference is the low level winds. /issued 350 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2018/ Short wave from western Missouri to Arklatex is expected to track to the Great Lakes today and leave deep moisture across the Lower Mississippi Valley, especially along the coast. An inverted trough/low is expected to develop over the north central gulf Saturday. Models continue to struggle with the position of this trough/low.
TFJ Cold front that brought mixed precip to parts of Northeast Montana overnight will move to the east early this morning. Upper trough will move through the area this morning.
By this time, increasing chances for showers will also begin over our western and northern sites ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest.
326 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2018 Clear to partly cloudy skies will continue this evening as high pressure drifts offshore.
A cold front will bring some rain to central Indiana tonight and Saturday.
1113 AM MST Fri Jan 26 2018 The snow showers in the high mountains continue to decrease at this time. Much of the state still under strong pre-trough southwest flow aloft. 700mb trough axis. high country cold front, now just west of the n-central mtn ranges. Should see the cold air spilling out onto the high plains early this morning, first up along the Wyoming border around sunrise. Will likely see wind speeds increase through the day with strong post-trough flow aloft mixing downward. Tonight, should see winds weakening on the plains, but remain gusty from the west- northwest over higher elevations as cold air continues to filter in from the northwest on the backside of the upper trough. High temperatures today return to near average with lower 40s plains and 20s/lower 30s across the high country.
A cold front will then push south over the region and shunt lower ceilings and visibility in fog away from area terminals through 27/09Z. Broad cyclonic mid level flow in wake of yesterday's shrtwv trof will favor the development of a low level thermal ridge and thus warmer temps, mostly M60s-L70s. As a trough moves east thru the central plains Fri evening an assocd cold front will move s and is expected to be just s of I-20 by 3 AM Sat.
1231 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2018 High pressure should maintain dry weather until rain chances return with a Saturday cold front. Lows will be about 10 degrees warmer than average. As the upper-level trough catches up to the surface feature, moisture will increase further fueling showers through the Ohio Valley. The aforementioned stream of moisture in concert with a favorable upper-level trough and jet combo will be enough to support categorical POPs across the forecast area. Despite the high POPs, QPF remains fairly light with an areal average of about two to four tenths projected.
Overnight lows will range from the mid teens west up to the lower 20s in the far east. mainly dry conditions expected with H5 ridging to our west bringing NW downslope flow for the remainder of the weekend. H5 ridge crests over the Central Plains giving way to almost zonal flow for the latter portions of the week.
311 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2018 A mid-level trough axis is currently progressing eastward over the central and northern plains. A cyclonically-curved upper-level jet streak was positioned ahead of the trough axis such that weak upper- level divergence was present over the region. High temperatures are expected to reach the lower to mid 50s tomorrow. This means fire danger could get into the high category during the afternoon. An upper level trough will dig southeast across the central Plains Saturday night.
Breezy southwest winds this afternoon will shift to north this evening with the passage of a cold front. High pressure will build off the southwestern Pacific Coast through the remainder of the weekend causing flow to become more northwesterly with time as the feature amplifies up into the Northwest Territories of Canada.
Snow showers will continue today and this evening, mainly in the higher elevations. This one comes in the form of a warm front, but temperatures will initially be cold enough for snow at almost all elevations. Only the lowest elevations of the Snake Plain may have enough rain mixed with the snow to limit accumulations to under an inch. Snow levels will rise Saturday afternoon as the warm front passes, turning snow to rain at elevations below 3500 feet. High temps today will be slightly above normal for most areas, with highs tomorrow above normal south and west of a line from Burns to the Owyhees to south of Twin Falls, where the warm front will allow warmer air to mix down to the surface during the afternoon.
In the low levels, a cold front associated with the central High Plains impulse stretched from near Sioux City, IA to Fairbury, NE as of 2 PM.
1214 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2018 Warmer air will continue to flow into the region into this weekend with highs reaching the mid 40s to the mid 50s today and Saturday.
403 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2018 A cold front will approach and move through the region Saturday into Saturday night.
A progressive upper level trough was working it's way east across the central and northern plains today, with an associated cold front pushing south across our region. While cooler than yesterday, temperatures today are still mild and average in the 40s and 50s across south central Nebraska and north central Kansas.
1050 AM MST Fri Jan 26 2018 18Z TAF CYCLE A Pacific cold front racing east/southeast through NM will generate windy conditions for most areas through sunset. A northeast wind shift will then move down the eastern plains aft 03Z with the back door portion of the cold front. A dry Pacific cold front will move from northwest to southeast across the state today. Brisk northwest winds behind the front will usher in cooler air.
A weak cold front will move through the Ozarks region this evening and into Saturday morning.
The main aviation concern will be a southward moving cold front around 00Z. Cold frontal timing has been moving back in time with each forecast cycle. The cold front is expected to move through later this evening.
Deep layer ridging will keep conditions fair across the region today. With the upper ridge axis now east of the area, we will also see upper level clouds coming in from the west.
1119 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2018 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a trough of low pressure across the western third of the CONUS. Ridging was noted downstream and extended from the Ozarks north into southern Canada. Downstream of this feature, a trough of low pressure was noted from the canadian maritimes south to New England. At the surface: Low pressure was located over swrn North Dakota with a cold front extending to the south southwest into eastern Wyoming. A cold front will track through western and north central Nebraska this morning. Even with H85 temps around zero C this afternoon, good mixing will facilitate highs in the lower 40s.
255 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2018 Windy and cloudy conditions prevail this afternoon across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas in advance of a cold front currently pushing across Kansas and Nebraska.
Jaszka Temperatures trend cooler today with brisk west winds. A cold front will back into north-central Montana late tonight, lowering temperatures into the teens and 20s on Saturday.
Main concern will be p-type (potentially freezing drizzle) with any light precipitation that occurs this afternoon/evening. Guidance does not indicate precipitation this morning (forcing is very weak), but as winds become light fog (maybe freezing fog?) could be an impact through the morning hours. Forecast soundings show the potential for freezing drizzle (no ice crystals in cloud) initially, transitioning to snow. With that said, potential for freezing drizzle/snow enough to message.
Passing cold front will erode the lower clouds with improving conditions from west to east Sat morning.
1220 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2018 High pressure will be shifting offshore tonight.
445 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2018 High pressure will continue to move east tonight. A warm front will cross the region Saturday.
A broad upper and mainly dry trof remains in control over the region today. Will continue to be windy tonight and Saturday morning along western foothills and into Billings as lee sfc troffing develops behind departing system in southwest Canada. Saturday weather is further complicated by a back door cold front dropping into eastern zones Saturday evening and set up a baroclinic zone for Saturday night.
307 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2018 Skies remain sunny over much of the forecast area this afternoon with temperatures in the lower 60s. Currently, a cold front extends from northern Minnesota through central Kansas and into eastern New Mexico. The cold front will move into the forecast area on Saturday with more rain expected. The cold front will move out of the region Saturday night with rain ending from northwest to southeast.
Today-Sun Night: A de-amplifying upper level trough will progress east of the Rockies into the Central Plains today/tonight. In the wake of the trough, NW flow aloft will prevail through the weekend. Expect dry conditions with slightly above normal temperatures Fri-Sat and near normal temperatures on Sun, when a weak/dry cold front is expected to progress southward through the Tri-State region. Wind/Today: Pressure rises on the order of 6 mb/3-hr are expected in the wake of a weak/dry cold frontal passage between roughly 15-18Z, when winds will shift solidly to the NW and rapidly increase to 25-30 mph sustained with gusts up to 40 mph.
An approaching cold front, will also bring the chance of light rain, by later Saturday.
Dry air will dominate the region behind the front which will support mild days and cold nights, but thankfully winds will be rather light over the weekend as surface ridging holds sway over the region. An upper level ridge will build into the west late this weekend with northwesterly flow aloft dominating the middle of the country.
1215 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2018 High pressure heads east today, with southwest flow ushering in milder air. A cold front crosses Saturday/Saturday night.
Cirrus continues to move into the region from the south and west as an area of low pressure begins to develop in the Gulf. Meanwhile, ridging aloft will move offshore with a trough approaching from the central US. An associated cold front will help keep the area of low pressure along the GC region progressive through the weekend. Anticipate clouds to thicken and lower through the overnight with the low levels beginning to saturate through Saturday morning. High temperatures in low 50s in the higher elevations to the upper 50s in the metro to mid 60s across central GA.
/Tonight through Saturday/ Clouds increasing across central Iowa now ahead of a cold front that will push through the state this evening. A couple locations in the advisory did touch 45 mph but by and large the advisory didn't pan out with many locations only gusting into the lower 40 mph range. an upper level ridge will continue to shift into the Great Lakes region as a substantial trough pushes out of the Plains and into the Upper Midwest. This upper trough will weaken as it moves east thus the flow over Iowa will go from southerly to westerly. At the surface, low pressure over Canada will slowly shift east though this evening dragging a dry cold front across the state. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler with the bigger changes occurring across the north.
428 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2018 High pressure will slide off the East Coast through Saturday.
1249 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2018 High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard moves out to sea tonight and Saturday.
325 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2018 Northwest winds have been blustery and a band of thick mid/high clouds have slowly progressed east this afternoon in the wake of a cold front. Today's model runs continue to be in very good agreement with the sequence of arctic high pressure systems moving south through Canada and into the Great Plains and Midwest. A high latitude upper level blocking ridge will form north of the Bering Sea and drive a series of very strong arctic high pressures south into the lower 48. The effects of the arctic air on Nebraska will depend the track of the highs which, for the next 7 days, is centered across the upper Missouri river basin and the Midwest.
934 AM MST Fri Jan 26 2018 Update to drop the high wind warning for the Bordeaux area as winds have eased to around 20 kts this morning. Also dropped the winter wx advy over the higher mtns as snow has diminished and area webcams/satellite showing a general clearing trend in that area now. Latest surface analysis showing a cold front pushing through southeast Wyoming at this time. May need to cancel the High Wind Warning early up there as strongest winds look to be between now and 12Z.
The H5 wave should move east of the RGV/Deep South TX region tonight, however, no improvement expected in the overall sensible weather before a cold frontal boundary moves through late Saturday night. Additionally, rain chances will be increasing as the Pacific cold front nears.
Warm and dry weather returns this weekend as high pressure builds over the West, accompanied by Santa Ana conditions.
A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 11 am to 6 pm this afternoon due to the low RH and strong wind. However with a mostly clear sky and cold air advection, temperatures will become subfreezing across Southwest Kansas.
Upper air analysis last evening showed a broad trough across the country with westerly flow over Texas. At the surface, high pressure was centered over East Texas and the pressure gradient across our CWA was ill defined with winds light and variable. Friday will see some improvement with less cloudiness and warmer temperatures.
1218 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 High pressure will maintain mainly dry and cold weather today. Dry and very cold today as high pressure remains in control.
/issued 806 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2017/ A weak cold front is sinking south across the central Florida peninsula this evening. Ample post-frontal moisture in the wake of the front will support increasing low clouds across the forecast area the remainder of the night along with some patchy fog as the low level flow become northeasterly. Cool air advection will support cooler temperatures overnight with lows bottoming out in the lower to mid 50s across the Nature coast toward morning, and upper 50s to lower 60s central and south. A weak cold front sinking south through the central peninsula this evening will bring an uptick in northeast to east winds (increasing to around 15 knots) over the central and northern Gulf waters the rest of tonight with seas in the 2 to 3 foot range expected.
324 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2017 Another frigid morning across the Midsouth with temperatures currently ranging from the lower teens north to the lower 20s south. High temperatures will be a bit warmer today, with highs ranging from near 30 in northeast Arkansas to near 40 in parts of north Mississippi. The slight warming trend will continue into Friday, with overnight lows in the low 20s and highs in the upper 30s to to mid 40s.
Without much change in the low levels through the next 12 to 18 hours, these low clouds, and intermittent VSBY reductions to 4 to 6 miles should continue through tomorrow morning. The patchy ice problem will probably continue tonight across the Big Country and northwest Concho Valley, especially on bridges and overpasses.
A broad trough remains planted across the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS with ridging in the west. Surface anticyclone across the Great Lakes region has allowed southerly surface flow to return to the central Plains. The cold airmass will remain in place tonight with low temperatures bottoming out in the low to middle teens. Friday looks to bring the last reprieve from the cold, as colder air is briefly lifted northeast of the area between systems and the thermal ridge noses across at least the southern half of the area by late afternoon.
/issued 222 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2017/ After an nasty morning across much of the area, ice has mostly melted on the roads as temperatures warm closer to freezing. Patchy freezing fog will also be possible so it would be a good idea to give yourself some extra time if traveling Thursday morning. After we get rid of that, expect sunny skies and much warmer temperatures by afternoon! Weak westerly, downslope flow will help push the Arctic air east for at least a couple of days. By Friday, upper ridging will build in briefly from the west allowing temperatures to warm even more.
This will once again allow for some decent convergence in the low and mid levels and once again will have a deep dendritic layer to work with.
Thus, it looks like most areas will again struggle to reach the freezing mark. Guidance is actually trending cooler for Friday, so wouldn't be surprised to see this trend continue. The cold will continue to be the main topic, with little opportunity for temperatures to moderate as successive cold fronts move through under a deep upper trough over eastern North America.
345 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2017 WV imagery shows the west coast ridge has amplified slightly over the last 24 hours, turning flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico from zonal to NW. At the sfc, while weak return flow has resumed, stratus/fog remain socked up against the higher terrain. After yesterday, during which the lwr terrain struggled to climb above freezing, areas this morning w/heavier fog could see light rime accumulations on elevated surfaces, and possible roads/sidewalks.
410 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 High pressure will maintain mainly dry and cold weather today. Dry and very cold today as high pressure remains in control.