Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
130 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY. LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS AND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE HIGH SHOULD DRIFT SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOW TO MID 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
As southerly winds continue, this better moisture will advect into the area and help keep overnight temperatures warmer than they were this morning.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM IRONWOOD MICHIGAN TO ORANGE IOWA /KORG/. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THIS IS LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF THE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AT THIS TIME. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MANY OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING. BUT WITH THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND DRY DEW POINTS ALREADY BUILDING SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND STABLE DAY.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
Warm day Monday, then a wet and cooler rest of the week. This will be our prefrontal atmosphere ahead of what will be the start to an active, cooler, and wetter week ahead for the Northern Rockies.
A MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. THE HIGHER MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP AS THIS UPPER TROUGH DIGS CLOSER.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. SO WILL LOWER VALUES A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOW/MID 40S.
305 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015 WV imagery shows the upper level ridge has moved to the east of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico over the past 24 hours, leaving the CWA under SW flow aloft. Monday, the upper trough makes landfall in SoCal, and height falls begin across the desert CONUS. Models, particularly the GFS, show a cap ahead of the trough Monday, but also strong lift in the lwr levels invof the cap. Monday night, as the trough moves into the 4 Corners area, a strong 50+kt LLJ is set to develop over the Permian Basin, w/storms becoming a bit more organized and heading E-NE.
The lower atmosphere is still very dry and stable. A flat upper level ridge is in control of our weather pattern for the time being. A cold front across the northern Plains region will try to make a run toward the Missouri Ozarks but come up short and run out of momentum by Monday morning.
358 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MONDAY.
218 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE TONIGHT BECAUSE OF THE RECENT BIAS. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SURFACE RIDGING LINGERING THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE HIGHEST POPS ARRIVE MONDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
WARM SECTOR HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING NORTHERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. STILL SLIGHTLY CAP BUT THIS HAS BEEN ERODING AS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
/ISSUED 508 PM CST MON JAN 11 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE AT SFC AND NW FLOW ALOFT KEEPING AIRMASS DRY AND SFC WINDS LGT TO WSW NEAR 5KTS THRU THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL AROUND FREEZING TONIGHT.
A SECONDARY AREA OF SNOW IS NOW ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MN AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH. ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAVORED AREAS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN AS WELL AS ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS OF WESTERN WI.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN WARMING LATE THIS EVENING IN SOME AREAS AS THE WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO MIX DOWN. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EDGE ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BRINGING THICKER CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO START THE DAY ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS COOLER AIR BRIEFLY FILTERS IN BEHIND THE APPROACHING FRONT. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING WESTERLY BY MID-DAY. EXPECT THIS COOLER AIR AND CLOUD COVER TO RETREAT TO THE EAST BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THANKS TO RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES.
INVERTED TROF OFF THE TEXAS COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP LOW LEVELS ON THE DRY AND COOL SIDE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THAT LAYER AT OR BELOW 40 PERCENT.
925 PM CST MON JAN 11 2016 9 PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE GULF COAST. HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THE HIGH WILL NOT MOVE TOO MUCH TONIGHT KEEPING DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 28 47 23 41 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 26 42 19 37 / 10 10 10 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 25 42 20 37 / 10 10 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 18 40 16 34 / 10 30 10 0.
704 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016 A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REINFORCE COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY REMAINS QUIET ON THE REGIONAL SCALE AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD. A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AFTER SUNRISE. AND OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST. TAX STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OVR THE I 80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGE ZONES.
Brisk WNW winds of 15-25 mph behind arctic cold front overnight to lower wind chills to zero to 10 below zero from I-72 north late tonight into Tue morning.
207 PM PST MON JAN 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WEST COAST INTO TUESDAY.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD REBOUND A LITTLE WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 60S. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
939 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016 A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REINFORCE COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AFTER SUNRISE. AND OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST. TAX STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OVR THE I 80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGE ZONES.
508 PM CST MON JAN 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AT SFC AND NW FLOW ALOFT KEEPING AIRMASS DRY AND SFC WINDS LGT TO WSW NEAR 5KTS THRU THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL AROUND FREEZING TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WILL SEE MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER AS A WEAK WAVE AND TRAILING WARM FRONT WORK THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW.
THE LATEST NAM HAS SLOWED THE COLD FRONT/SQUALL TIMING BY AN HOUR OR SO. CENTRAL RIDGES LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON AND SUSQ VALLEY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE HEADLINES EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE FORECAST SNOWFALL AMTS ARE 1 INCH OR LESS -- AND SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY COVERED BY SHORT FUSED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS.
Pesky freezing fog and stratus continue to linger in many of the valleys of Western Montana as high pressure remains over the region. This has resulted in a much colder afternoon than expected in many places and thus have made some pretty stark changes to make both the low temperature forecast for tonight and high temperature forecast for tomorrow cooler in those places remaining in the strong cold pools (Missoula, Salmon, I90 east of Missoula). A weak weather system coming on shore this afternoon will progress east through the high pressure ridge this evening and across the Idaho and Montana Tuesday. A period of very light mixed snow and freezing drizzle may be possible in far Northwest Montana, though better chances for mixed precipitation are expected with the following system Tuesday night.
WV IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWING MID LEVEL TROF DIVING SE WITH WEST/SOUTHWESTWARD WARM ADVECTION INCREASING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. BUT BELIEVE TROF AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SCOURING OUT CLOUD COVER OVERR THE AREA. THEN A SHIFT TO WARMER CONDITIONS AND INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES LATER THU INTO FRI. THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE W AND IS REPRESENTED BY A WELL DEFINED THERMAL RIDGE. THE FORECAST WAS WARMED TO THE HIGHER END OF THE GUID ENVELOP. I WILL ADD THAT I'M MORE UNCERTAIN ABOUT WED AS IT THINK CONDITIONS COULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. THE LATEST GUID HAS TRENDED A GOOD BIT WARMER AND THIS FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT.
AND APPROACHING SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT.
ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BEHIND ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.
TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER 30S. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THE LOWS NOTING THAT TEMPS TODAY DID NOT WARM AS MUCH AS EXPECTED. THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT WILL HELP TEMPS GET INTO THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 40S WITH LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY.
443 PM MST MON JAN 11 2016 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL PREVENT MOISTURE FROM RETURNING TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AREAS WITH BLANKETING CLOUDS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN ELSEWHERE SO IN GENERAL. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE COME MID-WEEK AS THE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING RIDGE MOVES FARTHER DOWNSTREAM.
552 PM CST MON JAN 11 2016 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE WEST COAST TONGIHT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY.
A weak cold front will move through nern OK and nwrn AR sites 13-16z and through KFSM/KMLC by 18z. /ISSUED 250 PM CST MON JAN 11 2016/ A limited fire danger has developed this afternoon with the warmer conditions, coupled with dry air-mass/gusty southwest winds. A dry cold front will move into NE OK/NW AR early Tuesday morning, pushing south of the Red River by late afternoon/early evening.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THE HIGH WILL NOT MOVE TOO MUCH TONIGHT KEEPING DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
CENTRAL RIDGES LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON AND SUSQ VALLEY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE HEADLINES EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE FORECAST SNOWFALL AMTS ARE 1 INCH OR LESS -- AND SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY COVERED BY SHORT FUSED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS.
/ISSUED 552 PM CST MON JAN 11 2016/ A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE WEST COAST TONGIHT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY.
913 PM CST MON JAN 11 2016 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S VERSUS UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. WITH ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ON TUESDAY GIVEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SOME NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS. BUT CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LOWS BELOW FREEZING IN THE HILL COUNTRY.
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL AROUND FREEZING TONIGHT.
AS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BACK TO THE REGION. ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW BANDS COINCIDE WITH SHARP INCREASE IN WINDS WHICH WILL ALSO DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FREEZING FOG WILL STAY AROUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF ELKO AND NORTHERN LANDER/EUREKA COUNTIES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
749 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016 COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. ALL INLAND LOCATIONS WILL HAVE FREEZING TEMPS FOR A PERIOD OF 6 TO 10 HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS TAKEN OVER AND WINTER-ISH TEMPERATURES ABOUND.
WITH ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ON TUESDAY GIVEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SOME NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS. BUT CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LOWS BELOW FREEZING IN THE HILL COUNTRY.
614 PM CST MON JAN 11 2016 A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EDGE ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BRINGING THICKER CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO START THE DAY ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS COOLER AIR BRIEFLY FILTERS IN BEHIND THE APPROACHING FRONT. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING WESTERLY BY MID-DAY. EXPECT THIS COOLER AIR AND CLOUD COVER TO RETREAT TO THE EAST BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THANKS TO RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES.
551 PM CST MON JAN 11 2016 LIGHT SNOW AT MID AFTERNOON PUSHING INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL ADVANCE QUICKLY EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP LOW LEVELS ON THE DRY AND COOL SIDE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THAT LAYER AT OR BELOW 40 PERCENT.
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE STATE AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AS MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN RIDGES. BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 40 MPH WITH ONLY THE HIGHEST LOCATIONS BEING IMPACTED. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY THAN TODAY. SO HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS AFTERNOONS HIGHS.
GOOD MIXING OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP US WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE IN THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.
SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS SOUTH OVER LAND. LACK OF OBS OVER THE WATER MAKES CAPTURING THE TROUGH INTERACTION A LITTLE MORE PROBLEMATIC. FURTHER ALOFT A 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING EAST AND SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE TX COASTLINE FROM THE DESERT SW STATES. WITH THE LOWER POPS ADVERTISED BY THE NAM. THIS MODEL IS COMING IN A BIT WARMER IN COMPARISON TO THE ECMWF AND GFS. SO WILL GO CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV AND ECMWF NUMBERS.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY SPREADING 3-5KFT CLOUD DECK ACROSS TRI AND TYS TUESDAY.
ALSO LOWERED THE LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT TONIGHT OVER AREAS MAINLY FROM THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN TO THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST. THE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT DURING THE NIGHT AS THE SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE BIG BEND EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST TONIGHT WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF AT OR BELOW-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
/ISSUED 321 PM CST MON JAN 11 2016/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM THE S PLAINS THROUGH W TX AND S ROCKIES. IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM THE TROUGH. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH FORMING AT THE SURFACE OFF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST.
312 PM MST MON JAN 11 2016 WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE STATE AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AS MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN RIDGES. BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 40 MPH WITH ONLY THE HIGHEST LOCATIONS BEING IMPACTED. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY THAN TODAY. SO HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS AFTERNOONS HIGHS.
336 PM MST MON JAN 11 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL PREVENT MOISTURE FROM RETURNING TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AREAS WITH BLANKETING CLOUDS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN ELSEWHERE SO IN GENERAL. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE COME MID-WEEK AS THE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING RIDGE MOVES FARTHER DOWNSTREAM.
453 PM MST MON JAN 11 2016 NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HOLD OVER THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN TURN WESTERLY TO SWLY WED AND WED NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AT THAT TIME.
933 PM CST MON JAN 11 2016 SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING ACROSS THE STATE OVERSPREADS THE AREA. EXPECT THIS CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS SAGS SOUTHWARD. /ISSUED 321 PM CST MON JAN 11 2016/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM THE S PLAINS THROUGH W TX AND S ROCKIES. IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM THE TROUGH. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH FORMING AT THE SURFACE OFF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST.
249 PM PST MON JAN 11 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY WITH PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
SO THERE/S NO REAL PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY.
1027 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO OUR SOUTH. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY.
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OUT OR MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
DESPITE STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED IN ONLY A FEW SHORT-LIVED CU FORMING MAIN IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SKIES OTHERWISE WERE CLEAR WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S. SOUTH OF AN UPPER LOW STATIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE JAMES BAY HAS RESULTED IN A HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING SETUP OVER EAST/CENTRAL CANADA. A BLOCKING PATTERN ALSO WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC. THE BLOCKING SITUATION PER MID/UPPER LEVEL LEVEL FORECASTS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE MID WEEK. THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE MARITIMES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
525 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015 A SMALL AND TIGHT CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH A 500-300MB DEFORMATION ZONE WAS ROTATING ACROSS SW MESA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SOME DIURNAL AND TERRAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED. THE RIDGE REBOUNDS ON TUE WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
DESPITE THE LOW PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY PRESENT. ONCE THE BOUNDARY AND ANY STORMS SWEEP OUT TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT COOLER AND QUIET WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
NW MID LEVEL FLOW WILL STILL BE STRONG AND BROADLY CYCLONIC THOUGH POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE A COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID.
A weak cold front dropping southward across the region later this evening could provide enough lift for a few isolated storms to get going, but the front's slower than forecast progression and the diurnal decrease in instability after sunset may prevent widespread convection in the majority of the area, as hires models have also begun to indicate. The aforementioned cold front will settle and become stalled across the region sometime on Monday, although its final position and how much it wavers across the CWA are still in question.
LOWER TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN NEBRASKA AT THIS TIME. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS SFC RIDGING PREVAILS. BOTH ARE DUE TO THE FLATTENING/SUPPRESSING OF THE PLAINS UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BY SEVERAL SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
700 MB TROF AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO CREATE INCREASING SHEAR.
A SMALL AND TIGHT CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH A 500-300MB DEFORMATION ZONE WAS ROTATING ACROSS SW MESA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SOME DIURNAL AND TERRAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED. THE RIDGE REBOUNDS ON TUE WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK TO BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST AND CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS LOW.
/ISSUED 149 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/ Rain chances will continue the next few days as a somewhat weakened ua ridge remains over the region.
849 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA MOST OF THE COMING WEEK WITH LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. TOMORROW COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. UPPER PATTERN INFLUENCED BY UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH AN UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED PV ANOMALIES MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES AREA. AS THE JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. MEANWHILE SIGNIFICANT LEAD PV ANOMALY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES CONTINUING ITS NEG TILT.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF TALLAHASSEE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S. LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA HAS TIGHTENED THE GRADIENT A LITTLE TODAY AND HAS PULLED DRY AIR A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHWARD.
759 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO OUR SOUTH. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY.