Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Thunderstorms continue over the high country. the question is whether we flush the low level moisture to the border per the nam. or does some of the low level moisture linger? The nam is frequently too aggressive with low level drying.
929 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016 Skies remain clear across our entire CWA late this evening under the influence of strong high pressure and dry air thru the column. Enjoy! Hermine to our east and deep trough over the PAC NW. continues to strengthen a mid level ridge over the Great Lakes region. High Impact Weather: wind gusts on the Mackinac Bridge during the Bridge walk on Labor Day. High pressure continues to provide a clear sky overnight.
The air mass is drier and with clear skies and light winds, I anticipate many locations will see temperatures near or perhaps cooler than last night. Isolated pockets of freezing temperatures are not out of the question but this will not be widespread enough to warrant freeze warnings. If you experienced temperatures around 34-35F on Saturday, it would be advised to take precautions for sensitive vegetation tonight with temperature trends expected to be similarto 2 degrees cooler.
Evening water vapor satellite pics showing upper trough digging into the Pacific NW with strong southerly flow aloft out ahead of it. Latest guidance is consistent with the low track over the next 24 hours with far southeast Oregon and areas east of a line from Boise to McCall seeing the best chance for measurable rainfall through the day Sunday.
The 8 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a weak trough roughly along I-10, which, when combined with ample deep layer moisture, produced scattered showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening.
146 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016 High pressure will move across the lower great lakes today.
Temperatures are continuing to run cooler today. A trough will remain over the west coast to keep moderate flow through the delta and a deeper marine layer along the coast.
355 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016 Weak synoptic forcing associated with upper-level trough over the southern high plains is beginning to interact with mid-level subtropical moisture plume and low-level differential heating to aid in scattered convective development. Exiting upper trough and loss of heating will bring an end to convection tonight. A weak cold front will traverse the southern forecast area on Sunday bringing the possibility of post-frontal convection during the afternoon/early evening across the far southeastern TX Panhandle and eastern rolling plains. An upper ridge building in from the west should suppress most convection. The exception may be found across the southeast TX Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains where moist east winds may interact with slightly cooler temps aloft.
The short term period will feature increasing moisture through the column as the low level flow turns to a more SW direction ahead of a low moving across KS and MO.
254 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016 High pressure will build south of the region through tonight and will shift offshore on Sunday. Cool cyclonic flow aloft associated with a deep upper level low will continue tonight as a dry and cool canadian air mass moves in at the surface. A few spots like sheltered mountain valleys well inland may dip into the lower 40s.
Surface analysis places a warm front from Batesville, Arkansas back through Iuka, Mississippi including the Memphis metro area. A warm front will continue to push through the Mid-South tonight. Better coverage of showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, especially north of I-40 and across much of the area on the Fourth of July as a mid level trough and associated cold front moves into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016 A cold front will cross the region this afternoon. The front will usher in cooler and less humid conditions for the remainder of the holiday weekend. A cold front will cross the region this afternoon, while an upper low approaches northern Maine. A disturbance rotating around the upper low will also cross the region this afternoon. Behind the front, breezy and cooler conditions follow with lower humidity. Breezy and cooler conditions follow tonight with lows dropping into the upper 40s to lower 50s.
146 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016 Cooler and drier weather is expected today with highs mostly in the 70s.
(Issued 1041 AM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016) At 15Z, temps have warmed up into the low/mid 80s already with a few mid-level clouds starting to pop up and upper-level clouds streaming in from the MCS over MO. The TN Valley will stay dry and have mostly sunny skies as the MCS rounds the upper-level ridge and stays to our north. Even though we are in the wake of the cold front that went though yesterday, which is now in central AL, we will not see a relief in temperatures. High temps will be slightly warmer than yesterday reaching the mid 90s by this afternoon. The heat index will reach the mid/upper 90s today, and will be the lowest values of the holiday weekend.
Heading through the remainder of the holiday weekend, Sunday is expected to be quite similar to today with rather hot conditions and perhaps an isolated shower or two as the mid level ridge begins to slip temporarily eastward.
502 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016 A cold front will move east of the region tonight.
312 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016 We remain parked on the backside of a high pressure area, centered over the great lakes. Very little progression of the high tomorrow will mean tomorrow will be similar to today.
Today, should be a bit warmer (well into the 70s over the interior) under partly/mostly sunny skies and developing light lake breezes by late morning/early afternoon. Expect min temps to range from the lower to mid 40s mainly interior west half to the lower to mid 50s along the Great Lakes shores.
147 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016 Warm front brings chances of showers Sunday.
112 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016 High pressure will build south of the region today through tonight and will shift offshore on Sunday.
Fairly quiet summer weather is on tap for the remainder of the weekend as low pressure aloft gradually sinks southward into the PacNW from the NE Pacific and British Columbia.
Moderate to strong winds remain over the coastal waters with low pressure developing across the Panhandles and southern high plains.
Otherwise, an upper trough will deamplify over the eastern seaboard today, resulting in zonal flow from the mid MS River Valley to the NC coast that will persist through tonight. At the surface, a slow moving cold front will stall over our area today, somewhere in the vicinity of the NC and SC border, remaining there through tonight. Temperatures will run slightly above normal as the upper ridge flattens.
200 PM MDT SAT JUL 2 2016 The west side of an area of rain showers extending from near limon to Sedgwick marks the axis of a weak upper level trough that has been moving across the region. In addition, scattered showers and tstms developing over the higher terrain will start to move across the Urban Corridor and adjacent plains. an upper level ridge and mid level subsidence will allow for warmer airmass to move over the region. Best coverage will be over the higher terrain with isolated coverage across the plains in the aftn.
326 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016 (Tonight and Sunday) An upper level trough is currently across the Southwest U. On Sunday, the aforementioned upper level trough will swing across the southern Plains. Otherwise, a broad ridge aloft remains the dominate feature for the next 7 days. Afternoon highs will remain warmer than normal, with numbers in the upper 90s to around 100 likely.
408 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016 This Afternoon-Tonight: Convergence along the western Atlantic ridge,whose axis is currently across the far southern FL peninsula, helped kick off an early start to showers and storms this morning.
323 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016 Current synopsis shows upper level trough exiting the northeast United States while weak ridge moves in over the southeast. Subsidence from the ridge has put a hamper on convective development with an isolated shower or 2 near the mouth of the Mississippi River.
338 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016 Widespread light to moderate rain continues through the afternoon and evening hours as strong isentropic lift ahead of the incoming mid level trough. This focus for low level ascent remaining so far south with a good low level jet around 30 to 40 kts transporting plenty of moisture north and over the cooler air should help keep widespread rain with some embedded thunderstorms going through the overnight hours.
In addition, a weak cold front will move across the TX and OK Panhandles tonight and could serve as an additional low level lifting mechanism to assist in tstm development.
short wave mid level ridge over the Northern High Plains region of eastern MT/WY with a short wave embedded trough moving into western Montana and another more subtle wave in northwest flow aloft ahead of the ridge over far south central Canada. Above mentioned s/wv troughs will be the triggers for showers/thunderstorms today and later tonight as they approach our region. Does appear less of a chance over western ND with the ridge aloft and the western MT wave not arriving until after 06z and closer to 12z. However, best instability will not materialize till peak heating, and looks to be very narrow orientated from south to north along or to the west of the Highway 83 corridor with dry air advection behind and ahead of the trough advertised.
405 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016 High pressure will begin to push east of the region tonight.
(Issued 431 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016) A fairly stationary cold front extends from Maryland west northwest into Iowa into northern Nebraska. Dewpoints have really mixed out this afternoon to around 50 degrees and into the lower 60s. Thus lowered tonights lows into the lower to mid 60s primarily in northeastern AL and near Southern Middle Tennessee. More moisture will advect in at the lowest levels by Sunday afternoon/evening, however not sure how much this will occur between 700 mb and 500 mb based on forecast flow upstream.
Attempted to blend with surrounding offices with respect to PoP/Weather, but there will be periods tonight in which capping aloft with the approaching mid/upper level ridging should mitigate any development of convection, especially across the southern half of the WFO PAH forecast area. As the ridge departs, forcing with the approach of the sharp Missouri/Illinois centered trough Sunday morning will force an increase in frontal and pre-frontal convection Sunday afternoon and evening.
and that seems reasonable since mid level trough axis is expected to shift eastward. Highs on Sunday should be warmer than today. then highs in the lower or mid 80s are likely for Independence Day. The mid tropospheric pattern for much of this period will feature a trough over the far western United States and a ridge from northern Mexico toward the Ohio Valley. The overnight hours will generally have the higher chances. With surface dewpoints likely climbing back to the lower or mid 70s. Cigs and vsbys will range from MVFR to IFR as boundary layer remains saturated until mid level trough moves east of the area.
138 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016 A ridge of high pressure will extend from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through Independence Day. A weak pressure trough will linger in the forecast area. Elsewhere, isolated convection is expected mainly along the stalled surface boundary and Piedmont trough. Lows will be in the low/mid 70s tonight. The models continued surface ridging extending from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico. Lee-side troughing is expected to develop over the Midlands and could act as a focus for convection. The GFS and ECMWF displayed surface ridging extending from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through the medium-range period.
For this reason, and the fact that uncertainty still exists to where the highest rainfall amounts will fall, we have chosen to hold off on a flash flood watch.
Low temperatures tonight will be in the low/mid 70s with highs Sunday a little warmer than today.
Mostly sunny skies and hot temperatures are expected to prevail across the region this afternoon as upper level ridging continues to build across the Gulf of Mexico. Dewpoints should mix out into the lower to mid 60s inland, but may hold in the lower to mid 70s near the coast. Hot and dry conditions continue today as an upper level ridge continues to build over the region. Strong subsidence under this ridge will keep any showers or storms from developing while also sending temps into the mid and upper 90s this afternoon. Very muggy conditions continue overnight with lows in the low to mid 70s inland to upper 70s along the coast.
153 PM PDT SAT JUL 2 2016 An upper low will continue to bring the threat for thunderstorms mainly south of Highway 50 today, before drier conditions return for the remainder of the holiday weekend. Upper levels will warm while the low levels slightly cool stabilizing the airmass.
654 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016 High pressure centered over the area this evening will move off the mid Atlantic coast Sunday afternoon.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday night): 500mb mid level high pressure residing over Texas and Western Gulf providing a very warm atmosphere and moderately low mean relative humidity. A few showers have developed earlier off the Tamaulipas coast but are having trouble reaching the Lower Texas coastal waters with an increased area of subsidence helping the low level inversion to strengthen this afternoon.
This convection will be more focused along a weak trough slowly drifting south of the state. high pressure will continue to dominate the area for the weekend.
313 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016 Weak zonal/ridging upper level pattern in place this afternoon. On Sunday, moisture return in the lower levels will begin. In the ext fcst, models have backed off a bit on the potential for a dominating upper ridge to develop. Upper ridge will be slower to develop and the associated upper high will be weaker. A weak ridge will eventually develop by weeks end but some moisture will continue to undercut the ridge. The ext temps are looking a degree or 2 cooler than previous runs.
1208 PM PDT SAT JUL 2 2016 Near to slightly below normal temperatures will likely persist through the next seven days as a trough of low pressure lingers across the West Coast. A series of fairly quiet weather days coming up across the area as a weak trough slowly makes its way through the west coast. ***From previous discussion*** A very weak upper trough will linger across the region tonight and Sunday.
Tonight Through Sunday Zonal flow with a series of Pacific low pressure troughs moving through the flow will bring decreasing shower and thunderstorm activity into mid week. Sunday Night THROUGH Saturday The pattern change will continue with zonal flow and speedy short wave troughs in the flow will keep some showers and isolated afternoon and early evening thunderstorms mainly over the mountains.
With a dry airmass in place further east beneath the prevailing ridge axis, the rain has been having a hard time spreading into central Illinois.
325 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016 Low level moisture will continue to stream into the region in response to an approaching low pressure system. Initially the approaching system will bring more humid but slightly breezier conditions which will keep temperatures tonight a few degrees warmer than the last several nights. On Sunday, the short wave will move into the Central Plains while a cold front moves across the Low Rolling Plains and into the northwest counties of North Texas.
/issued 937 AM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016/ Low level convergence setting up over SE Florida this morning around western edge of subtropical ridge becoming established across the Bahamas. The subtropical ridge will continue to build into South Florida today at the low and mid levels.
240 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016 Warm/breezy conditions this afternoon with temperatures running in the lower to mid 90s across much of eastern Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas. A more significant round of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will likely develop Sunday afternoon along any residual outflow boundaries/approaching cold front.
620 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016 A cold front will move east of the region tonight.
Clouds will gradually decrease trough Sunday morning, giving way to a pleasant Sunday with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid 70s to around 80.
229 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016 Dry weather will continue through the weekend as high pressure controls the weather.
Upper level ridge and drying ground conditions will help push afternoon temperatures well into the 90s, and close to 100 degrees in some spots.
Kept the highest rain chances near the Oklahoma and Kansas state line. For now, kept the highest rain chances near and east of I-35.
Overall coverage of showers and storms around the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters remains isolated, with cell development recently favoring the nearshore waters adjacent to the lower Florida Keys. Weak ridging persist on the large scale both at low and high altitudes. An Atlantic ridge will remain positioned north of the Florida Keys, over the central Florida Peninsula for the next several days.
144 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016 Aviation The holiday weekend will see perfect weather as Canadian high pressure continues to bring mostly clear skies, low humidity and comfortable temperatures.
Subtle drying transitioning in from the west will relegate the best chances for afternoon and evening storms Sunday over the higher terrain of eastern Arizona, mainly east of Globe. Slightly drier and more anticyclonic flow aloft continued to spread into central Arizona from the west early this afternoon in the wake of a departing upper trof pushing east and into western New Mexico.
Highs Sunday once again should be in the upper 60s and possibly some 60s south sections to the lower 70s north sections.
532 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016 High pressure will build south of the region through tonight and will shift offshore on Sunday. Cool cyclonic flow aloft associated with a deep upper level low will continue tonight as a dry and cool canadian air mass moves in at the surface. A few spots like sheltered mountain valleys well inland may dip into the lower 40s.
307 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016 Departure of the longwave trough anchored by the low over eastern Quebec will result in northwest flow aloft backing to a more westerly direction this evening. Though strongly confluent flow will continue to maintain high pressure at the surface during this time, westerly flow aloft will be more effective for cirrus advection from Nebraska-Iowa-Illinois tonight. This, considered in conjunction with slightly higher heights, will favor overnight lows tonight a few degrees warmer than last night, or low to mid 50s. Sunday will be another mostly sunny day characterized by normal temperatures in the low 80s courtesy of a very deep diurnal mixed layer.
1259 PM PDT SAT JUL 2 2016 Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon in the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. The high will weaken over the holiday weekend and allow for temperatures to lower to near average. Thus, will keep the POPs for this afternoon and early this evening for Yosemite in the highest elevations, though added a slight chance for over Kings Canyon along the crest.
331 PM MDT SAT JUL 2 2016 Monsoonal moisture will begin decreasing tonight as troughing exits to the east.
A weak cold front will move through the region this evening, continuing to bring cloud cover, increased winds and some showers and isolated thunderstorms to the region.
431 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016 A fairly stationary cold front extends from Maryland west northwest into Iowa into northern Nebraska. Dewpoints have really mixed out this afternoon to around 50 degrees and into the lower 60s. Thus lowered tonights lows into the lower to mid 60s primarily in northeastern AL and near Southern Middle Tennessee. More moisture will advect in at the lowest levels by Sunday afternoon/evening, however not sure how much this will occur between 700 mb and 500 mb based on forecast flow upstream.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a broad ridge over the middle of the country with a weak trough over the southern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the Gulf and winds across our CWA were from the south to southeast. The upper level trough will move out of the Rockies and into the central plains, but should stay far enough north to allow our weather to remain dry. There is a slight chance for some thunderstorms to slip into Val Verde County from the higher terrain in Mexico.
Dropped lows a few degrees from previous forecast, more towards the cooler end of guidance which is what we have been seeing the past few mornings. With 925/850 mb temps warming a couple more degrees on Sunday, and with better mixing, expect highs to be a few degrees warmer than today.
347 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016 High pressure centered over the area this evening will move off the mid Atlantic coast Sunday afternoon.
A cold front will pass thru all 3 TAF sites BTWN 03/06z thru 03/13z, switching winds to the north BTWN 10 to 20 kts with higher gusts. /Issued 412 AM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016/ Thunderstorm development expected to be enhanced today and tonight with the approach of a short wave trof and the arrival of its associated cold front. Cold front makes its way through most of the forecast area tonight, and then passes through the southeast Texas Panhandle Sunday morning.
The high clouds may cause some issues with the temperature forecasts for tonight and Sunday, especially in southern portions of the area. Kept the far south a little cooler than the north Sunday, with more high clouds expected.
1013 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2016 High pressure will extend east across the area today and tonight.
These conditions should scatter out to VFR before or by noon, and remain so until late this evening when an arctic cold front arrives.
early morning surface analysis had a dry cold front just southeast of our southeast most zones with high pressure centered northwest of our CWA spreading southeast across our region. This cold front has pushed a little farther south than previous model runs suggested and models are now a little drier with tonight's weather. Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the broad circulation around a closed low spinning over Ontario. Breezy north winds in the wake of this cold front will usher in much colder and drier air knocking temperatures down into the upper 30s across our north.
A weak cold front moved through South Texas overnight. Temperatures today will be cooler this afternoon with highs ranging in the 60s across the region. The cold front will move through South Texas late tonight into early Thursday morning. Lows tonight will range in the upper 40s to mid 50s, and highs tomorrow will be in the low to mid 50s.
929 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2016 As upper level low pressure moves east across Ontario and Quebec, cooler and drier air will continue to move into the Ohio Valley today, with temperatures continuing to get colder through the end of the week.
812 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2016 Building high pressure should maintain dry weather today. A Thursday cold front will bring much colder temperatures and snow shower chances to end the work week. Very little moisture exists along the mid-level cold front, so initial precipitation chances will be minimal through Thursday afternoon, but a slight wind shift will bring lake-effect and upslope snow that could extend into the early weekend. Although cold advection will be ongoing, the coldest air will pour in later Thursday afternoon with a mid-level trough. Veering winds behind the trough axis will seep Great Lakes moisture in across the northern 1/3 of the forecast area, eventually extending southward into the Ridges.