Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The presence of this high, along with the ridging aloft, will bring generally clear skies tonight through Saturday. With the high moving east Saturday, winds will become more southwesterly. A closed upper level low, currently cut off from the main upper flow down over Mexico, will gradually begin to open up and drift northeast into the Arklatex region on Sunday. It is expected to continue to dampen as it lifts northeast into the lower/mid MS River Valley Sunday night.
A weak unorganized cold front did little in terms of weather impacts except increasing winds with gusts 25-35 mph (higher in the Kittitas Valley). However, the parent trough tracking across WA/OR tonight and Saturday will allow a quasi-stationary front to form over Oregon that will bring a band of rain across central and southeast Oregon and over the northern Blue Mtns. The trough will also cause winds to increase similar or even stronger than today. It will be about 5-10 degrees cooler on Saturday compared to today. The trough will exit into ID on Sunday followed by a northwest flow aloft.
Perhaps even more agreeable than yesterday with temperatures reading a couple of degrees warmer and much calmer winds.
A weak unorganized cold front did little in terms of weather impacts except increasing winds with gusts 25-35 mph (higher in the Kittitas Valley). However, the parent trough tracking across WA/OR tonight and Saturday will allow a quai-stationary front to form over Oregon that will bring a band of rain across central and southeast Oregon and over the northern Blue Mtns. The trough will also cause winds to increase similar or even stronger than today. It will be about 5-10 degrees cooler on Saturday compared to today. The trough will exit into ID on Sunday followed by a northwest flow aloft.
1256 AM CDT Sat May 1 2021 (This evening through Saturday) Water vapor satellite imagery is showing a stationary upper level low across northern Mexico, with southerly flow aloft over our region. Tonight through Saturday, the low will move northeast into West Central Texas, bringing increasing moisture and lift, with precipitable water values up to 1.
It will be noticeably cooler this weekend. A cold front extends across Douglas, Coos, and Curry counties and will continue east of the Cascades overnight. Clouds will be a bit less extensive in south central Oregon, and more so in northern California, then clouds will diminish as a ridge builds in Sunday afternoon.
Meanwhile, some patchy -DZ/-RA has lingered this evening over the Wrn sections of E TX, where the deeper moisture profile resides ahead of the closed upper low spinning over Nrn old MX. This low level dry advection remains progged to continue advecting SW across much of our E TX counties through a portions of the overnight hours, before low level winds begin to veer more SE late. Deeper convection is expected to continue developing through Saturday evening over Cntrl and SE TX, ahead of the slowly NE ejecting upper low into SW TX, with the convection expected to overspread much of the region late Saturday night.
After a cooler start to the morning, clear and sunny skies will help boost afternoon temperatures into the lower to mid 70s as high pressure scoots off to the east. Overnight temperatures will be mild, with lows remaining in the lower to mid 50s, just at or above climatological normals. Fairly good deterministic model consistency in placing an upper low south of the Red River Valley Sunday morning. Storms over the Lower MS valley will bring increasing mid and upper level cloudiness to our area through the day. Coverage of rains should become widespread overnight, as that upper low crosses our area.
In general this is expected to continue and temperatures should likely fall into the middle and upper 50s for most, with many locations down into the lower 60s already at the 02z observation. Despite being a bit cooler currently than forecast (1-2 F for most), with dewpoints holding steady in the upper 50s F and lingering cloud cover, further cooling will likely be quite slow overnight. Quiet conditions will continue into Saturday as mid-level ridging comes into play keeping us rain free but partly cloudy skies will still prevail. Warm temperatures will ease back into the region Saturday with highs ranging from the low 80s to upper 70s across the ArkLaMiss.
420 AM EDT Sat May 1 2021 High pressure crosses the area today and tonight with dry weather through Sunday.
211 AM MDT Sat May 1 2021 Water vapor shows flat ridge over the Northern Rockies/Plains with short wave energy crossing southern SASK. Upper trof is moving onshore the west coast. At the surface, trof is advancing through the eastern Dakotas. Temps will be a bit cooler today with thermal ridge axis east of the area and northwest winds behind the surface trof. Energy from west coast trof may bring a late day shower or storm to northeast WY and the Black Hills. Cold front enters northeastern WY and far western SD early Sunday morning and pushes through our central SD zones by mid afternoon.
High pressure builds into the region through Saturday, bringing very warm and dry conditions to the region.
1104 PM CDT Fri Apr 30 2021 (This evening through Saturday) As the upper low swings around through central Texas, showers and a few storms should gradually increase across north Texas into southern Oklahoma tonight.
245 AM EDT Sat May 1 2021 A weak, reinforcing cold front will drop across the area early this morning. Temperatures will be cooler in its wake, but dry conditions will prevail through Sunday.
/ISSUED 550 PM MDT Fri Apr 30 2021/ Upper ridging continues to flatten through tonight as an upper disturbance moves across the PacNW. With continued very dry air in the lower and mid-levels and high-level cloud cover, along with decent winds aloft, expect another warm night tonight, especially on the plains, with lows 10 to 15 degrees above normal in the 40s to lower-50s. By Saturday night into Sunday the showery conditions expand to central/north- central areas as a back-door cold front moves south and west from Alberta and Saskatchewan.
BT Satellite imagery shows flat ridging over the area with much less high cloudiness than we saw this morning, as expected. As a result of the clearing and well-mixed westerly winds, temps have risen into the low-mid 80s most places. Weak cold front will move thru the area tonight, and while not producing much wind it will yield a somewhat cooler day on Saturday with highs "only" in the 70s. Best t-storm potential will be south of the Musselshell River and west of Broadus, and in this area could be pockets of heavier rain and perhaps small hail (especially as freezing levels begin to fall). The more north and east you move off the terrain, the lower the chances and amounts of precipitation become. Temperatures will be cooler but not far from seasonal.
Today Through Sunday Night Early this mrng, a fntl bndry was stalled out along the Gulf Coast, with an upr lvl low pressure system sloly apchg Wrn TX. Highs today wl range fm the mid 70s to the lower 80s, with the warmest readings expected acrs Nrn and Ern sections as clouds wl arrive later in the day.
So look for some return southerly flow later today and slightly warmer temperatures, along with abundant sunshine and low afternoon RH values. Tonight, expect increasing cloudiness as a deep upper low rotates northeastward out of Texas and brings with it abundant moisture into the local area. The reprieve from active weather will be very short, as a developing cold front will close in right behind the departing upper low.
Southern portions of the CWA from Brainerd to Hayward could reach into the low 80s.
Otherwise, gusty southwest winds will draw in a warmer airmass into the area with highs topping off in the 75-80 degree range across north central WI, and well into the 80s along and south of I-94.
1132 PM CDT Fri Apr 30 2021 High pressure overhead will keep light winds and plenty of sunshine overhead for the remainder of the day. Lows will bottom out in the low to mid 50s.
327 AM CDT Sat May 1 2021 A broad mid-level ridge is currently moving over the Rockies while at the surface a high pressure is moving into the Ohio River Valley. The high will continue to exert its influence over our sensible weather keeping conditions sunny and dry through the day. As the high moves to the east, winds will veer to the southwest, becoming gusty during the day as the surface pressure gradient tightens. The clouds and showers will keep temperatures several degrees cooler than today, with the coolest areas across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois where precipitation will move in earlier in the day.
216 AM EDT Sat May 1 2021 Despite overnight lows in the lower to middle 30s, any frost should remain limited and of short duration.
Tonight, winds will be fairly light and variable, but as the high begins to shift east of the region on Saturday, winds will veer around to the southwest. The pressure gradient across the region will tighten a bit tomorrow as weak low pressure deepens over the northern Great Lakes, resulting in breezy southwest winds by late tomorrow morning. This will reinforce deep southerly flow across the lower and middle Mississippi Valley, beginning a period of warm and moist advection. Precip chances will be the highest as the energy from the cutoff low passes the region on Sunday afternoon and evening.
Hourly temperatures in the Blue Grass are a bit cooler than in the forecast and dew points have dropped into the upper 20s and lower 30s, so went ahead and lowered MinT a degree or two from southeast Indiana into the Blue Grass region. Sfc temps have increased comfortably into the low 70s so far, and should rise a few more degrees though the afternoon.
Upper low will begin lifting northeast out of southern Texas tomorrow afternoon and evening which will bring rain chances and MVFR/IFR ceilings just outside of this TAF period.
239 AM MDT Sat May 1 2021 Warm ridge of yesterday has flattened out and an upper trough was moving into southern British Columbia early this morning. A weak cold front has pushed through the forecast area and this will lead to cooler temperatures today. Raised snow amounts for the high county for tonight and Sunday. The amin brunt of the system will chug east for Sunday and lingered the higher PoPs over the southeast zones then. Sunday will be cooler than Saturday, as highs will struggle to get out of the 50s. In fact, may have to lower highs further, as some guidance was pointing to highs in the lower 50s.
An upper low currently rotating over southwest Texas/Mexico will lift northeast and spread showers and storms across the area from south to north later Sunday.
Dry weather is on tap for today as high pressure moves east of the area. Most of tonight will be dry, with gradual increasing clouds late, well in advance of an approaching upper low over TX. Sunday, the upper low will continue northeast, ending up over AR by Sunday evening.
339 AM MDT Sat May 1 2021 Today will begin the transition to a cooler and unsettled weather pattern. Upper level flow has become more zonal ahead of an approaching Pacific trough. Today will be a transition day toward cooler and unsettled conditions, with continued westerly breezes as 10 degrees or so are trimmed off of yesterday's highs. The Bridger Foothills scar will be monitored for potential downpours later this afternoon and evening, though the heaviest precipitation looks to occur south of the area. Tonight into Sunday, the showery conditions expand to central/north- central areas as a cold front moves south from Alberta.
723 AM EDT Sat May 1 2021 Weak high pressure will build across the area today with morning clouds giving way to partial sunshine. Weak low pressure will cross the area tonight with a few showers, followed by partial sunshine and seasonably mild temperatures on Sunday.
At the surface, high pressure is situated over the Arklatex region with some lee troughing in place. Upper low will migrate northeast and will be approaching central TX by early this evening and at the same time upper energy will be approaching the Central Great Basin. Will start to introduce some showers and storms Sun across mainly southeast KS as the upper low moves from the Arklatex region and across central/northern AR. By early Sun evening there is good model agreement in a cold front extending from northeast Nebraska into northwest KS with this front expected to sink southeast Sun night. Will continue the trend of increasing shower/storm chances Mon night as the upper trough swings across the central/southern Plains. Precip should end from west to east Tue morning as the trough continues to quickly slide east.
626 AM CDT Sat May 1 2021 Another nice spring day is in store for the Ozarks today as high pressure moves over the area. The high will begin to slide to the south and east of the area this afternoon which will allow southerly winds to begin picking up with some gusts to 20-25 mph this afternoon. Overnight, an upper level low over the southern plains will begin to lift north and open up. The cloud cover will help to keep temperatures warm however with overnight lows in the lower 60s to upper 50s.
A low pressure trough brings some light showers, thunder, and gusty afternoon winds today.
Today and tonight: Weak northwesterly flow aloft continues overhead as weak upper level ridging moves eastward into the Central Plains.
616 AM MDT Sat May 1 2021 One more day of record breaking warmth is in store for the area, before the upper level trof in the Pacific northwest moves into the region. The GFS/ECMWF are pretty bullish in bringing some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon, but looking at the latest water vapor loop at the various levels we are only seeing a few pockets of deeper moisture mainly over the higher terrain. This should all take place before the higher clouds start moving into southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle late this afternoon. The cold front is expected to push through the area from the north on Sunday and bring much cooler temperatures and more rainfall to the plains with mostly snow over the Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges and perhaps the I-80 Summit.
A weak upper trough over the area may also produce a few showers around the horn of Trinity this afternoon. Otherwise, dry and breezy northwesterly winds are expected through the weekend as high pressure builds offshore and a trough drops into Great Basin. The greater threat appears to be Sunday night when the air mass warms while gusty northerlies persist through the night across the higher elevations of southeastern Mendocino and Lake counties.
1056 AM EDT Sat May 1 2021 High pressure will build across the region through the weekend with dry conditions through Sunday.
Current surface analysis places low along the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border with warm front over the eastern Dakotas. Upper level analysis places flat ridge over the northern plains, with trough over British Colombia southward over the West Coast. Though not as extreme of conditions as yesterday, dry air remains over the area with temperatures again expected to climb well above average with the passing ridge. For tonight, aforementioned west coast trough pushes east with upper flow starting to shift southwesterly overnight. On Sunday, cooler air starts to drop into the area while the aforementioned short wave makes its way through.
438 AM MDT Sat May 1 2021 Water vapor shows flat ridge over the Northern Rockies/Plains with short wave energy crossing southern SASK. Upper trof is moving onshore the west coast. At the surface, trof is advancing through the eastern Dakotas. Temps will be a bit cooler today with thermal ridge axis east of the area and northwest winds behind the surface trof. Energy from west coast trof may bring a late day shower or storm to northeast WY and the Black Hills. Cold front enters northeastern WY and far western SD early Sunday morning and pushes through our central SD zones by mid afternoon.
Today will begin the transition to a cooler and unsettled weather pattern. Upper level flow has become more zonal ahead of an approaching Pacific trough. Today will be a transition day toward cooler and unsettled conditions, with continued westerly breezes as 10 degrees or so are trimmed off of yesterday's highs. The Bridger Foothills scar will be monitored for potential downpours later this afternoon and evening, though the heaviest precipitation looks to occur south of the area. Tonight into Sunday, the showery conditions expand to central/north- central areas as a cold front moves south from Alberta.
800 AM EDT Sat May 1 2021 Mid level ridging resides over FL and much of the Gulf of Mexico through this evening. A diffuse boundary currently across north- central FL dissipates as high pressure begins to build in from the Atlantic. Forecasts look good with highs reaching the lower 90s inland. A diffuse boundary across north-central FL washes out today as high pressure builds in with an initially relaxed gradient.
This morning, southerly closed upper low is observed rotating across the Rio Grande Valley, lifting Gulf moisture into southern OK. Meanwhile, midlevel moisture is streaming over the northern CONUS, rounding the short wave ridge and dropping into the central plains in the form of high clouds. Highs are forecast to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday into the middle 80s, given the ample warm advection and warmer start to the morning with readings in middle 50s. Aforementioned Gulf moisture in the form of low clouds advects northward into northeast Kansas late this evening as the closed low shifts into Texas. Southerly winds remain on the gusty side overnight, sustained from 10 to 15 mph, resulting in a mixy boundary layer and lows Sunday morning on the warmer side in the low 60s.
1032 AM EDT Sat May 1 2021 Weak high pressure will build across the area today with morning clouds giving way to partial sunshine. Weak low pressure will cross the area tonight with a few showers, followed by partial sunshine and seasonably mild temperatures on Sunday.
Today through Sunday The weak ridge over the area this morning will give way to an approaching trough later today. Some of the high-res models are even showing this starting earlier across western Wyoming, perhaps as early as 15Z. Convection will decrease this evening as instability wanes ahead of an approaching cold front. The associated trough will deepen Sunday afternoon, keeping widespread showers across most of the area.
With upper level ridging across the area as well, dry weather is expected with mostly clear skies. An upper low over old Mexico will lift through the Mississippi Valley tomorrow which will increase deep moisture across the area.
917 AM CDT Sat May 1 2021 Sunny skies today, with high pressure over the region. A back-door cold front that has moved through this morning will help keep the dew points fairly low , generally in the mid 30s east to mid 40s west. As an upper low pivots northeast into central and northeast TX tonight, south-southwest flow in mid to upper levels will increase across much of the Gulf and middle South. The upper low level low should become an open wave over AR and LA Sunday, with clusters of showers and thunderstorms thriving across the deep South and lower MS Valley due to plentiful low level moisture transport. Will keep PoPs in the low to middle chance range at this point.
442 AM MDT Sat May 1 2021 A weak storm system and associated cold front will develop over the central portion of the Northern Rockies this morning. This cold front will march south and east throughout this afternoon and evening spawning thunderstorms ahead of the front and appreciable rain along and behind the front. The contrast in airmasses across the cold front will create wind gusts to 30 mph throughout this afternoon and evening as well. Much of northwest Montana is anticipated to miss out on precipitation today, with noticeably cooler temperatures compared to the past couple of days.
/Issued 323 AM CDT Sat May 1 2021/ Upper low, currently west of Big Bend, TX this morning, will continue to lift northeast through central Texas today, moving into the ARKLATX region by mid-day Sunday.
Low level trajectories continue to maintain a dry airmass over the ArkLaMiss region as of mid morning, and guidance continues to indicate that moistening of the lower levels will be a slow process. The mid level ridge that has been over the area will protect much of the area from this immoderate weather today, but as it begins shifting east, a few showers will nudge into western portions this afternoon. But as the low level flow increases and the ejecting cold core low begins tapping higher PW air over the northwestern Gulf, widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop along and north of the coastal baroclinic zone and spread into the area from the southwest by dawn Sunday.
Pacific cold front will bring gusty west/northwest winds, showers, and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening, along with temps about 15 degrees cooler than yesterday.
No aviation concerns today and tonight as high pressure will provide clear and calm conditions. A backdoor cold front is currently moving south and appears to be located between TYS and CHA, noted by a dewpoint gradient. Clouds may start to increase late tonight as high clouds round the top of the ridge.
639 AM EDT Sat May 1 2021 High pressure crosses the area today and tonight with dry weather through Sunday.
Although high pressure aloft weakens over the area it will be warmer than yesterday.
Cloud cover late this afternoon may help mitigate some of the higher end fire weather threat, but confidence is not high enough at this time to pull back on any fire weather headlines or messaging. Current surface analysis places low along the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border with warm front over the eastern Dakotas. Upper level analysis places flat ridge over the northern plains, with trough over British Colombia southward over the West Coast. Though not as extreme of conditions as yesterday, dry air remains over the area with temperatures again expected to climb well above average with the passing ridge. For tonight, aforementioned west coast trough pushes east with upper flow starting to shift southwesterly overnight. On Sunday, cooler air starts to drop into the area while the aforementioned short wave makes its way through.
(This evening through Saturday) Water vapor satellite imagery is showing a stationary upper level low across northern Mexico, with southerly flow aloft over our region. Tonight through Saturday, the low will move northeast into West Central Texas, bringing increasing moisture and lift, with precipitable water values up to 1.
Upper troughing will progress from the Eastern Seaboard into the western North Atlantic Ocean while downstream ridging is maintained from the southern Gulf of Mexico through the Greater Antilles. Temperatures throughout the short-term period should average 3-5 degrees above the seasonal mean, with highs mostly in the upper 80s to around 90 (slightly cooler within ~20-30 miles of the coasts), and lows in the 60s (inland) and 70s (urban and coastal areas).
951 AM EDT Sat May 1 2021 High pressure will build in this weekend.
Expect sunny conditions with highs in the low 80s today across the area. High pressure will shift off to the east later tonight and that will allow for southerly flow across the southeast and usher in some gulf moisture into the area.
This will result in breeze conditions from the south to southwest and warmer temperatures in the 80s. The cold front will push through western Kansas Sunday night as a stronger upper level trough approaches.
/issued 345 AM CDT Sat May 1 2021/ WV imagery shows the upper trough centered just southwest of the Presidio Valley at 06Z, and still developing convection ahead of it. Sunday, flow aloft transitions to zonal as the next trough digs through the SW CONUS.