Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1111 AM MDT Fri Aug 7 2020 An all too familiar pattern of anomalous low pressure over the PacNW will keep windy and dry conditions in place today. As this trough moves farther into the interior it will be impinging on the ridge aloft which is a recognized pattern for fire weather. The closed low off the California coast isn't moving, and the ridge overhead will remain in place as well.
Temps by sunrise will range from the low to mid 70s inland and near 80 at the beaches. High pressure will dominate the weather pattern.
it looks a bit warmer for aftn temps while precip chances to remain limited. GFS model today showed upper level high pressure dome to our west with some ridging extending east into our area.
306 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020 Tonight and Saturday: Mid level ridging from TX across the northern Gulf of Mexico will result in continued warming in the column over the forecast area through Saturday. At the surface, persistent ridge axis from the OH valley across the TN and lower MS valleys will maintain the wedge of dry air that we have seen of late. Although temperatures Saturday will be a few degrees warmer, afternoon RHs around 40 percent over much of the area will keep heat indices only up to around 100.
Capping and ridging aloft are expected to be successful at eliminating thunderstorm prospects through Saturday night. With the continued warm/capped atmosphere and the ridge starting to build in from the southâ¦ the chance of storms looks unlikely over the weekend.
Gusty south wind will continue through this period with a moderate surface pressure gradient between the Tennessee valley high and Colorado low pressure centers. Rain chances will be low tonight while the upper ridge builds northward through western Oklahoma into the central plains.
208 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020 Surface observations, radar, and satellite imagery all show it's a bright and unusually pleasant August day across Middle Tennessee with mostly sunny skies, temperatures in the low to mid 80s, and dewpoints down into the low to mid 60s. Another nice, cool night is on the way for tonight with lows in the low to mid 60s areawide. RH values will at least be on the low side with dewpoints remaining in the relatively low 60s during the afternoon.
Saturday during the day should be dry and hot with highs climbing into the lower 90s. Dewpoints, which are already in the lower to mid 70s today, reach the mid to upper 70s Saturday.
Have issued a Heat Advisory for portions of northeast and east-central Kansas for Saturday afternoon for areas that have the highest confidence in reaching high heat indicies of 105-108 degrees and WBGT values of around 85-87 degrees.
205 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020 High pressure in the lower Great Lakes will slowly track southeast into the Ohio Valley on Saturday.
Regardless of clearing time today, temperatures will be slightly warmer today as 500 mb heights increase as high pressure over the Desert Southwest noses westward. Warmer weather will continue through the weekend. An upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest has swung inland. A weak upper low has broken off the southern end of the trough and will be over the area today.
An upper level trough axis west of the region will ease into the forecast area on Saturday.
Based on deterministic runs, the upper level high pressure system is expected to meander over the region during the period.
Overnight, support from a passing weak short wave trough through the general psuedo-zonal flow, will support better chances for showers and thunder in the early morning hours. Through Saturday, ahead of a large trough churning over the Canadian Prairies, the broad ridging over the central U. will shift slightly, with a more positive tilt of the ridge axis across KS/MO/IA through late in the day. In response, hot and humid conditions will develop through the afternoon, with heat index values approaching the lower 100s F.
950 AM PDT Fri Aug 7 2020 A trough of low pressure over the region will weaken today into the weekend bringing less windy and some warmer weather to region. Inland areas will get closer to average as a high pressure system nudges its way west.
A cold front will be pushing east across ND later tonight. The cold front will usher in drier air for Saturday. High pressure is on schedule to provide quieter weather on Mon through Wed, with the next chance for stronger convection presenting on Thu. Other isolated storms will be possible as well, but the highest continued threat will be with the FAR storms.
High pressure settles over the area late in the weekend. Latest analysis shows an upper level trough to our west, while at the surface a stalled frontal boundary remains along the Blue Ridge. Otherwise, the upper level trough will slowly progress east today, while the surface boundary will remain in the vicinity of the area.
Subtropical ridge axis will generally remain across the area over the next several days, with a weak low level south to southeasterly flow allowing the east coast sea breeze boundary to form and move slowly inland each afternoon. Overnight lows will continue to range around the low to mid 70s.
220 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2020 Upper level ridge over the Central Rockies and Central Plains will remain in place through Saturday. A weak short wave trough will round the top of the ridge late tonight and Saturday. Also, just a slight increase in moisture over the higher terrain south of I-70 could produce a few high based showers and storms. Highs will be a slightly cooler, but most locations over northeast Colorado are expected to reach the 90s again.
An upper-level ridge will build across the south-central U. with the CWA on the east side of the ridge.
420 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020 19z sfc analysis shows high pressure moving deeper into the Ohio Valley and Kentucky. In addition to the high's suppression effects, some extra cloudiness in the southeast has hindered this area from reaching convective temperature thus far, but some cells are starting to pop just across the border so will maintain a small chance for thunders for another couple of hours there. Otherwise, temperatures have made it to the low 80s most places with dewpoints getting back into the unpleasant range of mid to upper 60s and even a few obs in the low 70s.
223 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020 Very warm mid-level mid-level temperatures have spread eastward off the higher terrain today. Upper level ridge axis remains in place across the Central and Southern Plains Saturday.
153 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020 High pressure will build over the region today. Low pressure will track south of the Gulf of Maine Saturday.
312 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020 Weak high pressure keeps the weekend mostly dry but unsettled conditions loom nearby so can't rule out isolated to scattered rain showers this weekend. Weak high pressure at the surface keeps the bulk of the area dry for the majority of the time. At the same time the high pressure center shifts into the maritimes increasing onshore flow. Saturday will remain generally unsettled with isolated rain shower activity turning scattered over the higher terrain during the afternoon. For temperatures, onshore flow limit warming within a few miles of the coast to the 70s while the interior warms into the low- 80s. Precipitation tapers down quickly with sunset and with ridging moving in from the west. Humidity will remain on the higher side, limiting low temperatures to the 50s and 60s.
324 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - As high moves east rain chances increase - Warmer -- As high moves east rain chances increase -- High pressure over Michigan is producing a stellar summer day. Highs around 80 and dewpoints in the lower 50s have created quite comfortable conditions. We'll see one more night with lows in the 50s then the high moves east and south flow develops. The upper ridge is going to flatten this weekend as a short wave moves across the northern tier of states.
Expecting several small disturbances to pass over the Lower Ohio Valley this week, but they aren't expected to have much of an impact on the weather. So, what does this mean? Well, with the high pressure moving away from the area, moist southerly flow will move in and push moisture levels higher across the region.
None-the-less, a plume of mid level monsoon moisture continued to fan out across the areas on the Caprock today, just south of the upper level ridge center. But given the high cloud bases and mixed drier air below, there will be potential for strong outflow wind gusts on the order of 50 mph or even locally stronger with an isolated stronger updraft. RMcQueen Another round of late day convection will be possible tomorrow night, but will mainly be confined to the far west/northwestern areas of the CWA as the ridge drifts westward.
As the mid-level ridge continues to build in from the west on Saturday, subsidence will increase, leading to decreased chances of shower development and increasing temperatures. High temperatures will likely be a few degrees above what was recorded the past few days for a majority of the area, topping out in the low-to-mid 90s.
143 PM PDT Fri Aug 7 2020 A trough of low pressure over the region will weaken today into the weekend bringing less windy and some warmer weather to region. Inland areas will get closer to average as a high pressure system nudges its way west.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible with the greatest risk of flash flooding in the lower Susquehanna Valley. High pressure will build down from the north and provide a nice weekend. It will get warmer After a foggy start, there will be cu across much of the area, but they should not grow too tall. Just the far NW will get cooler, and fog is likely in the valleys up that-a-way.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night):Ridging at all levels will remain in control of the CWA through the short-term forecast period. A weak mid/upper trough axis currently situated in a northeast to southwest orientation across the central Gulf will slowly translate westward. The main trough axis is still expected to remain south of the area. The northwest flank of this trough axis does have PWATs around 2 inches. As a result, the highest PoPs are expected on Saturday with low-end chance PoPs for the eastern two-thirds of the CWA.
It will still be comfortable tonight with below normal temperatures in the lower to middle 60s, but highs on Saturday will reach seasonal readings around 90 degrees with dew points in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Models show a weak upper level trof moving into the middle Mississippi valley on Saturday. The south winds and increasing clouds will give us warmer overnight lows around 70 degrees. With time some amplification, with H5 ridges forecast to be to our east and west, will keep a weakness over the region.
KCNM and KHOB have the highest probability of thunderstorms this afternoon and this evening but confidence was not high enough to mention at those terminals at this time. /issued 219 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020/ Today the subtropical ridge will be expansive and centered INVOF ABI/SJT by 00Z/Sat. To the w of the said ridge center there will be a primary SB instability axis that forms from far SE NM into the NE TX Panhandle while the primary mid-level theta-e ridge axis will extend from SW NM into W TX plains. Sat the subtropical ridge starts to become bifurcated with one center still near ABI and another in nrn Chihuahua, MX. As such there will be only an area from GDP Mtns-W Eddy County favored for a few SHRA/TSRA Sat PM in proximity to the lingering mid-level theta-e ridge.
258 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020 High pressure in the lower Great Lakes will slowly track southeast into the Ohio Valley on Saturday.
The return flow was also nudging dewpoints upwards, with mid afternoon readings in the lower to mid 60s over much of the area. Otherwise, tonight's lows will be warmer than the past several nights due to increasing humidity levels and southerly winds holding at least above 5 to 10 mph through the night. Saturday will be noticeably more humid as dewpoints climb into the lower 70s by afternoon.
Isolated showers and storms will be possible this afternoon mainly east of Pittsburgh as an upper trough crosses the region. CLouds will diminish tonight with building subsidence in the wake of the aforementioned trough.
Aloft, an area of high pressure centered over Texas will help reinforce the hot, relatively dry pattern through the next day or so. Heat index values will reach into the lower to mid 100s across most of the region.
High pressure at both the upper levels and the surface will likely limit much convection overall. A subtropical ridge will extend from the western Atlantic Ocean through the western Gulf of Mexico. This will maintain light east to southeast flow through the lower troposphere. The low to mid level ridge should center over the western Atlantic with a slight uptick in easterly flow anticipated locally. High pressure will be in control with light to moderate easterly flow through the period.
248 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2020 Water vapor imagery shows an upper low cross Canada just north of Montana, with W/SW flow across the CWA. Surface analysis shows a trough across near KIEN, with deep southerly flow across south central SD. Temps are in the upper 80s to low 90s across Tripp County, with dewpoints in the low 70s. Behind the trough, dewpoints were 10-15 degrees lower, with temps in the 90s. CAMs show storms affecting the Black Hills area early this evening ahead of a cold front moving in from the NW, then another post- frontal cluster associated with the next upper wave will push through northeast WY in the mid evening hours, then push to the Black Hills late this evening into the overnight hours.
A cooler than normal trough is currently traversing through the region. With the cool and dry airmass in place, lows tonight will cool into the 40s most lower elevations locations and 30s in the higher valleys. There may be just enough moisture, that a few rain showers visit the higher elevations of Glacier National Park.
Capping and ridging aloft are expected to be successful at eliminating thunderstorm prospects through Saturday night.
Tonight through Saturday night The state remains trapped between the longwave trough across southern Canada and ridging centered over Texas. Daytime heating is trying to spark a few showers on the higher elevations, but lack of well-defined vorts is keeping things isolated.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 95 70 96 72 / 0 10 0 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 91 67 93 70 / 10 0 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 66 91 66 94 70 / 10 0 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 87 62 89 65 / 20 10 0 10 10.
GC Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 69 95 70 96 / 20 0 10 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 67 91 67 93 / 10 10 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 89 66 91 66 94 / 10 10 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 64 87 62 89 / 30 20 10 0 10.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler for Saturday to the north of the front that sets up mainly south of the CWA.
The weather is likely to remain rather benign over the next few days as a high pressure system offshore keeps a northwest onshore flow.
516 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2020 Water vapor imagery shows an upper low cross Canada just north of Montana, with W/SW flow across the CWA. Surface analysis shows a trough across near KIEN, with deep southerly flow across south central SD. Temps are in the upper 80s to low 90s across Tripp County, with dewpoints in the low 70s. Behind the trough, dewpoints were 10-15 degrees lower, with temps in the 90s. CAMs show storms affecting the Black Hills area early this evening ahead of a cold front moving in from the NW, then another post- frontal cluster associated with the next upper wave will push through northeast WY in the mid evening hours, then push to the Black Hills late this evening into the overnight hours.
Many areas will see dry conditions overnight as high pressure remains in control of the weather pattern across South Florida. East to southeasterly flow will continue on Saturday as high pressure remains in place. High pressure at both the upper levels and the surface will likely limit much convection overall. A subtropical ridge will extend from the western Atlantic Ocean through the western Gulf of Mexico. This will maintain light east to southeast flow through the lower troposphere. The low to mid level ridge should center over the western Atlantic with a slight uptick in easterly flow anticipated locally. High pressure will be in control with light to moderate easterly flow through the period.
817 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020 With temperatures warming aloft, stratus and the placement of the CWA well between the two systems with some weak ridging aloft, convective development looks less likely until the wave to the west moves closer tonight. Temperatures will be a bit cooler for Saturday to the north of the front that sets up mainly south of the CWA.
Weak high pressure remains over the region this afternoon but will into the region today for drier conditions.
730 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020 High pressure in the lower Great Lakes will slowly track southeast into the Ohio Valley on Saturday.
725 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020 Dry and warm weather is expected through the weekend under high pressure. Dry weather is expected for the rest of the night as high pressure begins to build in.
A bit more atypical coverage in the coastal waters that was originally driven by nocturnal land breeze but now appears to be focused more on frontolytic trough feature stretched across the coastal waters and feeding off land albedo differential in lower Plaquemines Parish.
756 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020 High pressure will remain just north of the area through Saturday while weak low pressure tracks south of the Gulf of Maine.
Rest of tonight: Strong surface ridging at the surface & aloft is keeping drier air situated over the region. Lows will be closer to normal in the low 70s, while cooler north of I-20 & especially into the Highway 82 & Highway 45 corridors, into the upper 60s. /DC/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Saturday: Mid level ridging from TX across the northern Gulf of Mexico will result in continued warming in the column over the forecast area through Saturday. At the surface, persistent ridge axis from the OH valley across the TN and lower MS valleys will maintain the wedge of dry air that we have seen of late. Although temperatures Saturday will be a few degrees warmer, afternoon RHs around 40 percent over much of the area will keep heat indices only up to around 100.
624 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020 Very warm mid-level mid-level temperatures have spread eastward off the higher terrain today. Upper level ridge axis remains in place across the Central and Southern Plains Saturday.
541 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020 Dry and warm weather is expected through the weekend under high pressure. Dry weather is expected for the rest of the night as high pressure begins to build in.
707 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020 High pressure and the associated dry and stable air mass in place over SE Michigan will persist into tomorrow, promoting mainly clear skies and calm/very light winds. Weak southwest return flow around the high in the afternoon hours will begin to spread in some mid clouds in during the evening hours, otherwise it looks like diurnal CU will even struggle to develop during the day. A similar profile offered a larger range in lows in recent nights, so will again broaden the low temperature distribution - coldest rural locations again upper 40s/lower 50s while parts of metro Detroit remain near 60.
728 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020 Aviation - As high moves east rain chances increase - Warmer -- As high moves east rain chances increase -- High pressure over Michigan is producing a stellar summer day. Highs around 80 and dewpoints in the lower 50s have created quite comfortable conditions. We'll see one more night with lows in the 50s then the high moves east and south flow develops. The upper ridge is going to flatten this weekend as a short wave moves across the northern tier of states.
Surface observations, radar, and satellite imagery all show it's a bright and unusually pleasant August day across Middle Tennessee with mostly sunny skies, temperatures in the low to mid 80s, and dewpoints down into the low to mid 60s. Another nice, cool night is on the way for tonight with lows in the low to mid 60s areawide. RH values will at least be on the low side with dewpoints remaining in the relatively low 60s during the afternoon.
Southerly flow could push a few showers into the lower elevations north of the Mogollon Rim, so places like Winslow, Holbrook, and Petrified Forest also have around a 10 percent chance of precipitation on Saturday afternoon.
Cold front moving into central ND at 00z with storms west of Bismarck. A cold front will be pushing east across ND later tonight. The cold front will usher in drier air for Saturday. High pressure is on schedule to provide quieter weather on Mon through Wed, with the next chance for stronger convection presenting on Thu.
High pressure over the region will continue to maintain above average heat. Southwesterly flow will continue for the afternoon and into the weekend as the high pressure center will be present over Rio Grande River in Mexico and Texas for the next several days. Looking beyond Saturday, the models are showing our friendly high pressure not moving at all and giving us the continuous southwesterly flow and little moisture advection.
954 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020 High pressure will remain just north of the area through Saturday while weak low pressure tracks south of the Gulf of Maine.
857 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2020 Winds have relaxed a bit across the region but very dry air has moved into the region with some of the lowest dewpoints seen this summer across western areas.
1039 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020 A western Atlantic ridge stretches west-southwest across South Florida. There must be a weak undulation in the easterlies to our east, and may not be associated with the weakness in the ridge over the southeastern Bahamas. The lower tropospheric ENE winds lends credence to the larger undulation over the southeastern Bahamas. A subtle convergence zone has setup just to the north of the Lower and Middle Keys.
1033 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020 High pressure in the lower Great Lakes will slowly track southeast into the Ohio Valley on Saturday.
/NEW/ /Through Saturday Evening/ Hot, dry, and breezy conditions will persist across North and Central Texas into the weekend as stout upper level ridging prevails.
Other than some few to scattered CU and Cirrus, dry conditions to prevail as upper level ridging builds over the region. /Tonight through Saturday Night/ Upper ridge centered over central TX continues to strengthen, effectively ending the nw flow regime we've had in place over the last few days. Remnants of this morning's convection over ern OK/wrn AR continue to infringe upon our far nrn areas, but redevelopment seems to be being squashed by the increasing subsidence in association with the ridge. Ridge to hold its place through the short term pd. This will spell much warmer temps than we've become accustomed to in August of 2020.
900 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020 Dry and warm weather is expected through the weekend under high pressure. Dry weather is expected tonight under building high pressure.
/issued 246 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night):Ridging at all levels will remain in control of the CWA through the short-term forecast period. A weak mid/upper trough axis currently situated in a northeast to southwest orientation across the central Gulf will slowly translate westward. The main trough axis is still expected to remain south of the area. The northwest flank of this trough axis does have PWATs around 2 inches. As a result, the highest PoPs are expected on Saturday with low-end chance PoPs for the eastern two-thirds of the CWA.
The majority of the liquid that forms over the lower elevations will evaporate before it hits the ground, but isolated PoPs have been included in the forecast package, just in case some virga reaches the ground. Another hot day is expected, high temperature values will be in the mid to upper 90s over the plains, the low 90s over El Paso County, the mid 80s over the San Luis Valley and Teller County, the upper 80s to low 90s over the upper Arkansas River Valley.