Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
These showers are part of a low pressure system that will finally exit the area tomorrow and the showers will largely move eastward with the low.
527 PM MDT Sat May 22 2021 Upper analysis shows a broad low pressure system over the western CONUS, with southerly flow over the northern plains. Cold front is just to the east of our CWA. Temperatures beneath the mostly cloudy skies are still chilly this afternoon, in the low 40s to low 50s. A greater potential for severe weather exists on Sunday, as the upper low moves over the northern Rockies with a 110 kt jet. Southerly winds will increase ahead of the low Sunday morning, advecting in warmer, moist air, with dew points in the 50s to lower 60s.
We are a little warmer this evening compared to 24 hours ago. Clouds will continue rotating around a high pressure system centered over the TN Valley and Deep South.
926 PM CDT Sat May 22 2021 Seemingly never-ending fetch of Gulf moisture continues to flow into eastern OK around western side of upper ridge, and continues to result in scattered showers, though coverage has been on the decrease over the past couple of hours. Greatest coverage overnight should become more closely tied to remnant tropical disturbance over central Texas, however additional development of showers and perhaps an isolated storm remains possible through tonight and Sunday across eastern OK, while western AR should remain more under the influence of upper ridging.
A low pressure system will continue to bring central and northern Nevada valley rain, higher elevation snow showers, a few thunderstorms and below normal temperatures through Sunday.
623 PM EDT Sat May 22 2021 A ridge of high pressure will remain across the region into the first half of the week leading to dry conditions and hot temperatures.
634 PM EDT Sat May 22 2021 A strong ridge of high pressure continues the very warm, mostly clear, and generally dry conditions.
41 Strong omega-block ridge will remain as dominating feature thru the fcst period. Main focus is of course on the abnormally warm temps as we should moderate even higher for Sunday afternoon as most of the area looks to reach the low 90s.
839 PM CDT Sat May 22 2021 Vertically stacked ridging will continue to keep a warm, dry air mass in place overnight. Overnight lows will reach the low 60s for most, although sheltered valley locations may briefly dip into the 50s.
Isolated to scattered showers lower elevations, with more numerous showers over the higher terrain, through Sunday.
1143 PM CDT Sat May 22 2021 The area continues to be sandwiched between upper level high pressure to the SE and low pressure well to the west. Temperatures this afternoon range from the upper 60s NW to the low 80s SE. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 60s with highs Sunday ranging from the upper 70s W to the mid 80s E.
1104 PM MDT Sat May 22 2021 Upper analysis shows a broad low pressure system over the western CONUS, with southerly flow over the northern plains. Cold front is just to the east of our CWA. Temperatures beneath the mostly cloudy skies are still chilly this afternoon, in the low 40s to low 50s. A greater potential for severe weather exists on Sunday, as the upper low moves over the northern Rockies with a 110 kt jet. Southerly winds will increase ahead of the low Sunday morning, advecting in warmer, moist air, with dew points in the 50s to lower 60s. Upper low lifts north Monday, and drier air pushes into the region.
354 AM CDT Sun May 23 2021 Today looks pretty similar to yesterday with the upper low slow to move over the western US and the high pretty well locked in place in the east. Highs are forecast in the upper 70s to low 80s, but wouldn't be surprised to see some locations a few degrees cooler if they are more impacted by showers. Heading into the work week, there is at least some more meaningful movement in the pattern as the next trough comes onshore in the Pacific. This pushes the upper low northeast and should finally cause the blocking high to break down through the week.
Deep layer ridging is anchored in place across eastern CONUS with the center of high pressure moving into our region. Thus leading to warmer temps, calmer winds, and near zero chances for precip. Expect overnight lows in the mid 60s with daytime highs in the low 90s.
The delay of the East Coast Sea Breeze until later in the day will allow for inland Max Temps to push to around 90 degrees, while the onshore flow behind the East Coast Sea Breeze will hold temps into the lower 80s at the beaches and middle 80s along the I-95 corridor. Mostly clear skies under the ridge axis tonight will allow for the drier airmass to cool into the lower 60s inland and middle 60s along the Atlc Coast.
Currently, it appears the highest chance (relatively) will be near I-35 and just to the west.
/TW/ A ridge of high pressure extending from surface to aloft continues to maintain rather quiet conditions across the area this evening. Only scattered high clouds, rotating anticyclonically around the ridge, showed up on IR imagery this evening.
Upper level high pressure centered along the Mississippi River shifts southeast in response to a deep upper low over the northwestern Conus moving though a mean upper trough. Subsidence from the upper ridge will continue to bring temperatures above seasonal norms, especially over areas closer to the center of the upper high, east of the Tombigbee River in our case. High temperatures for Sunday are expected to rise into the upper 80s to mid 90s, with the warmer temperatures again east of the Tombigbee.
The strong upper ridge with its axis near the Mississippi River will very slowly edge east during the short term period, and will continue to dominate our weather.
Warmer and drier weather is expected on Monday, though there could be a few showers and thunderstorms in the very northern part of the state. Today through Monday afternoon The Low that has been bringing widespread rain and snow to Nevada the past few days is finally making its way northward. Showers will end this evening as the Low finally exits the region, leaving a dry night tonight. The next trof moves into the Pacific northwest on Monday.
307 AM EDT Sun May 23 2021 High pressure will continue to dominate the forecast through much of the week, with a broad upper level ridge over the southeastern US gradually shifting east across Florida by midweek then washing out.
340 AM CDT Sun May 23 2021 The frontal boundary that pushed south across the CWA yesterday will surge back northward as a warm front today. Stage is set for rather good warming, and an opportunity to side with the higher end of guidance for temperatures. The highly meridional mid-level pattern or recent days will gradually lose some amplitude as main trof aloft shifts into southern Canada very early in the period.
SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): Closed 500 mb low pressure off the coast of neighboring Tamaulipas will gradually move north towards the Middle Texas Coast and then inland during the period. The proximity of this mid-level system to the BRO CWFA will produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, with the best chance for precipitation located over the lower Texas coastal waters.
High pressure will be firmly planted of over the area in addition to a large scale ridge. With the high pressure centered on top of the area, winds will be much lighter. Sunny skies and light winds on Monday with highs in the low to mid 90s.
A large high pressure ridge continues to sit over the area and will provide dry and mild conditions through tonight and tomorrow. Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 65 94 67 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 63 90 65 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 88 62 90 64 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 60 88 62 91 / 10 0 20 10 10.
A large low pressure system will circulate over our region today with unseasonably cool temperatures, scattered snow showers in the high elevations, and isolated showers and thunderstorms elsewhere. The large mid-level closed low, centered over the Western U. A vort lobe rotating around the low will trigger some showers over northern Esmeralda County early tomorrow morning which will then transition eastward over Lincoln County, primarily north of Cailente, during the afternoon.
The upper level wave will push a weak surface cold front through the northern half of the forecast area. On Monday night, the ridge will begin to slowly build back into the area and evacuate the front to the east.
Building high pressure will result in a minor warming today through Monday.
352 AM EDT Sun May 23 2021 High pressure will remain over much of the eastern United States today with above normal temperatures. A cold front will approach the Mid Atlantic area from the north on Monday which will bring the chance of showers and thunderstorms.
223 AM CDT Sun May 23 2021 Dry and unseasonably warm conditions will persist into Monday as a high pressure ridge dominates from the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Deep South. This ridge will begin to shift east by Monday and Monday night, but any precipitation potential should hold off until mid week. Nights should be relatively mild with lows in the lower 60s tonight and middle 60s by Monday night.
1159 PM CDT Sat May 22 2021 A Canadian cold front has dropped through the Panhandle and part of ncntl Nebraska this afternoon. It is hard to imagine all models are lifting the cold front north as a warm front Sunday; opening up a warm sector for another round of storms Sunday evening. The srn flank of a large upper low stretching from WA to California this afternoon should lift northeast and drive a strong Pacific cold front through wrn and ncntl Nebraska Sunday night.
Quiet across the region with high pressure aloft centered over the Mid-South.
104 AM CDT Sun May 23 2021 (This evening through Sunday) A weak upper level low/tropical disturbance will track north across our eastern counties late this afternoon and evening. On Sunday, A large upper level low will be located across the western CONUS, while an upper level ridge remain centered across the southeast United States. The position of the upper level ridge will result in increasing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico across the area. Highs on Sunday will range from the mid 70s to near 80 across the eastern half of the area, to the low to mid 80s across the western half of the area.
951 PM PDT Sat May 22 2021 An area of low pressure will impact the region through the weekend. * May 22nd Winds - Post Falls (Railroad Bridge) 47 mph - Athol 45 mph - Deer Park 43 mph - Coeur d'Alene 42 mph - Spokane (Felts Field) 38 mph - Liberty Lake 35 mph The convective outflow did not make its way too far west, as the Spokane International Airport only recorded a gusts of 17 mph with the outflow. The upper level low which has been bringing us the unsettled weather will shift ever so slightly to our east tomorrow.
Today Through Monday Night Ridging at the surface and aloft look to hold for a bit longer across the region, providing another day of dry weather for much of the state. Ridging looks to begin its eastward retreat on Monday with precip chances returning to western Arkansas through Monday night.
MaxT this afternoon will once again range from the mid to upper 80s with a few locations breaking into the low 90s. Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are once again expected tonight with lows dropping into the low to mid 60s with our urban areas seeing lows in the mid/upper 60s thanks to the urban heat island. On Monday surface pressures will be decreasing but the upper ridge will still be in place from Ontario through the Ohio Valley to the Gulf.
An upper ridge will reside over the Upper Mississippi Valley and Western Great Lakes region leading to another warm and humid day. The better chances for scattered storms are across southern Minnesota into Wisconsin, near the vicinity of a backdoor cold front.
The only impactful difference is the low to our west has lifted north slightly, placing eastern New Mexico in southwesterly flow aloft. In addition to the low stratus, patchy fog is also possible over the Rolling Plains. As storms move into the South Plains, the upper-level flow will decrease, and drying will occur in the low to mid-levels. With a stronger upper level low pulling out into the Canadian Prairies on Monday, surface lee cyclogenesis over southeastern Colorado will keep surface winds backed across West Texas.
Most spots should find their way into the lower 60s for lows, with perhaps the coolest spots sneaking into the upper 50s. Temperatures were generally in the lower to middle 80s. Temperatures this evening will fall back into the upper 70s, though the urban heat islands may stay in the lower 80s for a bit longer. Surface and mid-level ridging will continue hold across the region for Sunday.
425 AM EDT Sun May 23 2021 A strong ridge of high pressure continues the very warm, mostly clear, and generally dry conditions.
356 AM EDT Sun May 23 2021 High pressure will remain over much of the eastern United States today with above normal temperatures. A cold front will approach the Mid Atlantic area from the north on Monday which will bring the chance of showers and thunderstorms.
An omega blocking pattern exists over the eastern United States, with South Florida on the subsident side of the upper ridge. This upper ridging paired with dry air advection in the lower levels will maintain mostly dry conditions region-wide, though a few low- topped showers cannot be ruled out. Aside from weakening the aforementioned ridge, this won't influence the weather across South Florida much, as this features is not co- located with a favorable boundary layer for any shower/storm development. While temperatures remain slightly cooler than average over the east coast, a slight warming trend will occur through this week owing to weakening easterly flow.
Similar today, QPF amounts will stay on the lower end, generally less than a tenth of an inch. The ridge to our southeast will generally remain in place, while the trough to the west will lift northeast on Monday only to be replaced by another trough over the western CONUS. As this occurs, the initial trough will push the main baroclinic zone closer to north-central Kansas, while flow aloft becomes somewhat stronger.
148 AM EDT Sun May 23 2021 A strong ridge of high pressure continues the very warm, mostly clear, and generally dry conditions.
These features are associated in a region with fairly deep moisture on the periphery of a mid level ridge.
High pressure continues to sit over the southeastern US ushering in moist southeasterly flow into our region with an upper level low located near south Texas. Areas west of I-45 will have higher chances of precipitation as the high pressure to the east slowly begins to expand westward. Precipitation continues through tonight as the aforementioned upper level low that has been down near south Texas gets picked up by and absorbed into the southeasterly flow and brought into our area. High temperatures will be in the low 80s this afternoon, and then slightly cooler on Monday thanks to the increased precipitation coverage.
338 AM CDT Sun May 23 2021 A deep upper level low remains over the western U. This low will be replaced by another, though weaker, low that will slowly transit the northern U. in a troughing pattern with lower pressures continuing to advect moist Gulf air into southeastern New Mexico and West Texas as well as prevent a strong upper ridge from developing. Low level moisture will help storms to develop over the next couple of days with the highest PoPs in our western counties.
Warmer temperatures can be expected by mid to late week but scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop during the afternoon and evening hours. As the upper low center lifts through the area Sunday afternoon the area of heaviest precipitation lifts north with additional precipitation wrapping around the low across the area through Sunday evening across southwest MT and into Monday morning across north-central MT before the system finally lifts our across the Canadian Prairies. Warming aloft in the S/SE flow ahead of the low will keep snow levels above 7000 ft through early Sunday morning before colder air aloft spreads back into the area from the west and southwest under the low center Sunday afternoon and evening, lowering snow levels down to around 6000ft.
The best chances for rain will be along and west of the Highway 65 corridor. This is particularly true for areas east of the Highway 65 corridor where a rather pleasant afternoon can be expected with some sunshine and highs in the lower to middle 80s. For tonight, overnight lows will fall into the lower 60s with partly cloud skies. For Monday, a mostly dry and warm day is forecast for the region with most of the area in the lower 80s. However, expect cloud cover to increase in coverage through the daytime on Monday as the high pressure stationed across the Tennessee Valley slides further east.
310 AM CDT Sun May 23 2021 High pressure remains in control today.
200 AM EDT Sun May 23 2021 Strong high pressure will hold just to our west today through tonight.
The eastern edge of this activity should shift westward through the day as upper level ridging to the east expands farther into the area, with this evening still looking like the only dry period of the next seven days.
Lingering showers through 9 to 10 PM, primarily lifting north into Iowa are possible, with mainly dry conditions are expected as weak high pressure slides west a touch. The break will be short lived, as short range solutions overnight suggest additional rainfall moving in early Monday morning, remnant activity from the storms out east, with focused isentropic ascent across eastern Kansas head of the cold front which will stall from central Nebraska back to the western high plains of CO/KS/OK.
1245 AM EDT Sun May 23 2021 Strong high pressure will hold just to our west today through tonight.
159 AM EDT Sun May 23 2021 Aviation - Thunderstorms with locally heavy rain possible Sun - Organized storms possible later Tue into Tue night - Steadier rain for the end of the week? - Thunderstorms with locally heavy rain possible Sun A back door cold front will be dropping south southwest through the CWA mainly Sunday afternoon and evening.
Vertically stacked ridging will continue to keep a warm, dry air mass in place overnight. Overnight lows will reach the low 60s for most, although sheltered valley locations may briefly dip into the 50s.
To the west a low pressure system will develop with convection initiating late this afternoon along the western high plains.
A large, deep upper trough across the West will slowly move northeast through the weekend. Meanwhile, a weak trough over the western Gulf of Mexico will lift into Texas during the same time. The western trough will keep southwesterly flow aloft across our region while the Gulf system keeps rich, low level moisture in place. Convection will initiate over the next couple of hours off the higher terrain and move east. We may see fewer storms midweek as we await another trough moving in from the west that could bring more convection heading into the holiday weekend.
231 AM CDT Sun May 23 2021 Mild night currently with temps in the lower 60s for the most part. The short term period will continue to be controlled by a stacked zone of high pressure through Sunday night.
329 AM CDT Sun May 23 2021 Stout ridging aloft and at the surface will remain centered over the Deep South today. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to drop into the low to mid 60s across much of the area. /TW/ Strong ridging remains in place through at least midweek in the mid levels and aloft. Mid week the pattern aloft starts to shift as a wave at h5 pushes into the Great Lakes as another moves on shore in the Pac NW and the subtropical ridge weakens to accommodate a more zonal pattern. Precip chances shift to a more diurnal/afternoon thunderstorm regime at the end of the week when the llvl RH has rebounded with dwpts well into the 60s and the mid/upper level ridging begins to break down.
The eastern Panhandles are still under 1500-2000ft cigs, while the central and western Panhandles are right on the edge of the low clouds and currently are mostly clear. Right now it looks like KGUY might be first to see the low clouds around 7z and KAMA may be closer to 10z, but not sure if KDHT will get low clouds, other than some scattered clouds.
/Issued 926 PM CDT Sat May 22 2021/ Seemingly never-ending fetch of Gulf moisture continues to flow into eastern OK around western side of upper ridge, and continues to result in scattered showers, though coverage has been on the decrease over the past couple of hours. Greatest coverage overnight should become more closely tied to remnant tropical disturbance over central Texas, however additional development of showers and perhaps an isolated storm remains possible through tonight and Sunday across eastern OK, while western AR should remain more under the influence of upper ridging. A weak upper level impulse will lift north around periphery of upper high, to our east, on Monday with southwest flow aloft gradually strengthening through mid week.
337 AM CDT Sun May 23 2021 Morning water vapor imagery clearly depicts the mid-level ridging centered almost directly over the TN Valley, aided by the presence of some wispy cirrus. Blended guidance is slightly warmer today and shows higher probabilities of reaching 90 (40-60%)--but soundings & RH plots hint that the cirrus may not be in a big rush to go away.
832 AM CDT Sun May 23 2021 Flow pattern aloft shows persistent cloud cover from the Gulf up into the Midwest around the edge of the upper high. An upper ridge will reside over the Upper Mississippi Valley and Western Great Lakes region leading to another warm and humid day. The better chances for scattered storms are across southern Minnesota into Wisconsin, near the vicinity of a backdoor cold front.
The upper level low is swirling around the Great Basin while low level moisture is rushing into NM from the southeast. It will be a little cooler in the west and warmer in the east. Monday will be warmer but with less wind we are not expecting any critical fire conditions.
622 AM CDT Sun May 23 2021 The frontal boundary that pushed south across the CWA yesterday will surge back northward as a warm front today. Stage is set for rather good warming, and an opportunity to side with the higher end of guidance for temperatures. The highly meridional mid-level pattern of recent days will gradually lose some amplitude as main trof aloft shifts into southern Canada very early in the period.
Highs today look reasonable, and have only nudged up a degree or so in a few locations, given the slightly warmer air mass in place, as well as less cloud cover to contend with compared to yesterday. Broad ridging throughout the atmospheric column (its axis just to our west) will result in mostly clear skies lasting into this evening, along with warm temperatures. An upper level trough dropping southeast across southeast Canada and New England will cause a cold front to approach us from the northeast late tonight and Monday.
555 AM CDT Sun May 23 2021 High pressure remains in control today.
Building high pressure will result in a minor warming today through Monday. Upper level high pressure continues to slowly build over the region. The ridge aloft has led to decreasing winds and warmer temperatures the last 24-36 hours.