Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
233 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015 THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS CANCELED WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE AS NO ADDITIONAL SNOW OR DRIZZLE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE PRECIPITATION THREAT CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AS THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE UNDERGOES A DRYING TREND. COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN A CLEARING POST COLD FRONT REGIME. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF THE GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW ON FRIDAY AS IT RELUCTANTLY INCHES EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN. ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL BEGIN FEEDING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
ONLY A FEW TWEAKS IN THE EAST FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AS MOST ARE ON SCHEDULE.
IT WAS A VERY CHILLY START TO THANKSGIVING DAY WITH MANY AREAS SEEING LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH.
114 PM EST THU NOV 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS WERE BUMPED UP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD.
111 PM EST THU NOV 26 2015 GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
/ISSUED 402 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015/ HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH OVER THE AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS MORNING WHILE A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM MINNESOTA TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH TODAY AND BY SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING BE LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED OUT OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT RUNS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE. SEVERAL WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE FRONT CONTINUING WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA.
OBSERVED WINDS OF 10 MPH QUITE COMMON AND HAVE SEEN GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH ON THE HIGHER RIDGES ON THE KY MESONET IN PIKE AND HARLAN COUNTIES. QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES WITH A DECENT SPREAD BETWEEN VALLEYS AND RIDGES IN TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. WITH STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY. OPTED TO CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN FEATURE A STRONG RIDGE TO VALLEY SPREAD AS ANOTHER STRONG INVERSION SETS UP. WE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE VALLEYS AND AROUND 50 ON THE RIDGES. THEY ALL SUPPRESS A SOUTHEAST RIDGE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A RESULT OF ONE AREA OF TROUGHING MOVING EAST THROUGH THE QUEBEC TERRITORY WHILE ANOTHER IS FOUND OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING AND WARM ADVECTION HELPING BOOST TEMPS A BIT HIGHER INTO THE 20S.
1113 AM EST THU NOV 26 2015 DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
THEY DO NOT INDICATE ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THERE IS A BIT OF CONCERN THAT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL.
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL BECOME CUT OFF COMPLETELY TONIGHT SETTING UP AN UNUSUALLY STRONG REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS OVER WESTERN CANADA.
316 PM EST THU NOV 26 2015 MILD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
A COLD UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. ALSO LOOKING AT AN AREA OF ORGANIZED LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A VORTICITY MAX ROTATING NORTHEAST AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW TODAY. ON FRIDAY THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WILL MIGRATE BACK TO THE WEST INTO WESTERN NEVADA. THIS REPOSITIONING OF THE LOW CENTER WILL LEAVE UTAH OPEN TO VORTICITY MAXES ROTATING NORTH THROUGH THE STATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL BECOME CUT OFF COMPLETELY TONIGHT SETTING UP AN UNUSUALLY STRONG REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS OVER WESTERN CANADA.
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY BUT BREEZY DAY FORECAST AS UPSTREAM MID- AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ALSO PERSISTS.
839 AM PST THU NOV 26 2015 A COLD AND NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING COOL WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
250 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MAINE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE AXIS OF THE HIGH STRETCHING SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. LOW PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WITH A COLD FRONT INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED MAINLY INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. WITH UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. COLD FRONT WILL LOSE ITS PUSH EASTWARD AND BECOME STATIONARY OVER WESTERN LOUISIANA OVER THE WEEKEND.
The NAM and GEM have both trneded slightly warmer in the northwest part of the forecast area which lessens the ice potential somewhat, but it will still be a close call there.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND LINGER ACROSS OUR AREA FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECT TO SEE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES (WEEKEND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER IN/AROUND OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THAN IN/AROUND THE GALVESTON ISLAND AREA).
HAVE AN AREA OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION AREA. STILL LOOKING FOR THE HIGHEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 0. AND LIGHT ICING OUTSIDE THE EARLY MORNING FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT AS FAR NORTH AS PONCA-LE MARS-SPIRIT LAKE.
357 PM EST THU NOV 26 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR TODAY. MOISTURE IN THE 500-300MB LAYER WITH THE SW FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THE CURRENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS ADVECTING COOLER AIR INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA FROM GEORGIA. THIS WILL LIKELY DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK.
935 AM PST THU NOV 26 2015 Chilly temperatures and clear skies are expected today into Friday as strong high pressure builds over the Pacific Northwest.
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN WINDS AT/ABOVE 7-8 MPH HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY WARMER, WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO.
FOR THE WEEKEND: FAIRLY SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN GULF.
149 PM EST THU NOV 26 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY.
1234 PM EST THU NOV 26 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MAINE LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY AND SWEEP ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION FRIDAY EVENING.
RAIN AXIS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO WISCONSIN WILL SHIFT ONLY VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REMAINS BLOCKED BY A UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST.
DEPICT THE POSITIVELY TILTED AXIS OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. BUT THE UPPER FLOW DECELERATES TO BETWEEN 50 TO 75 KNOTS ACROSS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHEAST TO ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE KEYS. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. THE 1052 MB SURFACE CENTER OF AN EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG ANTICYCLONE IS NOW EAST OF SABLE ISLAND.
Rain will gradually overspread the region this evening into the overnight hours a cold front begins to move to the southeast. Periods of rain, heavy at times, are expected with a sharp drop in temperatures behind the front (getting into the 30s, but staying above freezing). Conditions will be rather raw given a stiff northerly wind and temperatures falling into the 30s (though still staying above freezing). We will need to watch the freezing line closely during this time frame as it encroaches on portions of Bourbon/Crawford counties in KS and Vernon county in MO.
1040 AM MST THU NOV 26 2015 WEAK UPGLIDE/BROAD ASCENT DIMINISHING QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
356 PM EST THU NOV 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA SLOWLY GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST THIS EVENING.
The front and upper low will provide ample lift for rain and thunderstorms tonight and Friday. In addition colder air will continue to plunge south and the rain may mix with or change to freezing rain across the extreme northern Permian Basin including northern Lea county New Mexico and the Guadalupe Mountains.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AT 08Z EXTENDED FROM AROUND VILAS COUNTY MEANWHILE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM VILAS COUNTY TO NEAR LA CROSSE. SO WILL LIKELY HAVE A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW WITH SLEET ON THE EDGE OF THIS HIGHER QPF REGION STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. HOWEVER THE PRIMARY ISSUE IS WET ROADS FREEZING AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING.
252 PM EST THU NOV 26 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY.
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
337 PM EST THU NOV 26 2015 AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST COAST INTO FRIDAY SLOWING AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
SO THERE IS AT LEAST SOME CONCERN THAT THERMAL PROFILES COULD STILL SUPPORT SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR EAST OF CHEYENNE GIVEN A SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILE. SNOW AMOUNTS AND POSSIBILITY OF MORE FREEZING PRECIP THE FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM. SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DOWN OVER NORTHWESTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST LOW LEVELS WINDS AND TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE LOW TEENS UP BY DOUGLAS AND RAWLINS AND LOW 20S IN THE PANHANDLE. ECMWF AND GFS BRING UPPER LOW INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST WYOMING/NORTHEAST UTAH BY 18Z WITH QPF BAND CURRENTLY OVER RIVERTONS AREA SHIFTING EAST. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOWING A RETURN OF POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE TO AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FRIDAY. DID INTRODUCE FREEZING DRIZZLE BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON BASICALLY FROM CHEYENNE TO SCOTTSBLUFF AND POINTS SOUTH.
WE WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MAINTAINS ITS POSITION ALONG THE NV-UT BORDER AND SLOWLY WEAKENS. DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH.
216 PM EST THU NOV 26 2015 DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE RATHER QUIET WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENS SOME TONIGHT. BDL MODELS KEEP DELAYING THE ONSET OF THE RAIN AS A RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE ALOFT. THE SURFACE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS A COUPLE OF WAVES DEVELOP ON IT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST BEGINS TO WEDGE INTO THE STATE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING GUSTY CONDITIONS TO SOUTH FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE AXIS PARALLELING THE US ATLANTIC COAST WILL REMAIN GENERALLY STATIONARY. SFC LOPRES TROUGH OVER CUBA WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL PROLONG THE HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. STATIONARY SFC LOPRES TROUGH ALONG CUBA WILL BECOME DIFFUSE AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
158 PM MST THU NOV 26 2015 AT 20Z THE FORECAST AREA WAS UNDER A CLOUDY SKY WITH THE BULK OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION (FREEZING DRIZZLE. FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW) ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA (HILL CITY AREA) AND POINTS EAST.
1258 PM EST THU NOV 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.
251 PM EST THU NOV 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS WERE BUMPED UP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD.
Upper level ridging currently dominates the southeast states with surface ridging off the east coast providing easterly flow to the area.
The majority of the region will be at least 10 degrees cooler than normal for this time of year.
THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH SOUTHERN PORTION GETTING PINCHED OFF AS FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ONLY SHOW A BROAD TROUGH REFLECTED AT THE SFC.
316 PM EST THU NOV 26 2015 AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST COAST INTO FRIDAY SLOWING AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
IT WAS A VERY CHILLY START TO THANKSGIVING DAY WITH MANY AREAS SEEING LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING. WIDESPREAD VFR AS AREA IS IN DRY FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER LOW OVER GREAT BASIN. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH.
As the large potent upper low remains stationary across the southwest U.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE LOWER LEVELS TODAY AS A STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. WILL SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE GULF IN THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE DAY. THE AREA REMAINS BETWEEN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF NEW MEXICO/COLORADO/ARIZONA/UTAH. MID ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA.
150 PM EST THU NOV 26 2015 HYDRO A RAINY THANKSGIVING DAY IS EXPECTED AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN.
151 PM PST THU NOV 26 2015 A COLD AND NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING COOL WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
156 PM EST THU NOV 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE INTO FRIDAY WITH UNUSUALLY MILD AIR.
1208 PM EST THU NOV 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LEAD NRN STREAM SPLIT SW TROUGH WILL CONT EWD THROUGH SE CANADA SHRT TERM ALLOWING SFC FNTL BNDRY TO CONT SLOWLY PUSHING OFF TO THE S/SE W/RAIN LINGERING FRI NIGHT. UPSTREAM DEEP CLOSED LOW OVR THE ROCKIES THEN EJECTS OUT INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS ON MON AS SFC FNT LIFT BACK NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY W/RAIN RTNG PRIMARILY LT MON THOUGH EARLY TUE.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR TODAY. MOISTURE IN THE 500-300MB LAYER WITH THE SW FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN CWA DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPPER JET. BEST CHC OF CONVECTION WILL BE FRI NIGHT AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES S TX. ALSO SHOWED COOLER MN TEMPS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE NW CWA FRI NIGHT. AM EXPECTING A BREEZY DAY ON FRI IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ROCKIES AND A LLJ OF AROUND 30KT.
A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. BUT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING HEAVIER BANDS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EVENT WILL OCCUR. EXPECT A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND OCCASIONAL SLEET AT KDHT AND KGUY. KAMA SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AFTER 03Z. /ISSUED 347 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015/ CANADIAN COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH TO THE CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS DEVELOPED OUR FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COLD AIR DEEPENS TONIGHT AND FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPS AS THE WARM AIR OVERRIDES THE COLD DOME. ALSO WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STAYING PRETTY MUCH PUT IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
828 PM EST THU JAN 14 2016 AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA GULF TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOME GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND PUSH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 40 52 39 47 / 10 50 30 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 37 51 37 44 / 10 50 30 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 37 50 37 44 / 10 50 30 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 33 52 34 43 / 10 70 50 20.
THE MAIN IMPACT FOR OUR CWA WILL BE THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGH CLOUDS COMING IN A BIT THICKER THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT.
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SE CA AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH AND NE WITH MAINLY BROKEN HIGH CLOUDINESS PASSING OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THE LOW TEMPS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS WILL BE COLD AND RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
Locations transitioned from rain to snow later than previous model forecasts predicted and because of this, roads across west central Montana, southwest Montana, and central Idaho will have the chance for flash-freezing once again tonight with black ice possible through Friday morning.
917 PM EST THU JAN 14 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING, WHICH WILL ALLOW ROADWAYS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA, INCLUDING MARIAS PASS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT, TO BECOME ICY AND DANGEROUS.
THE LOCAL EVENING SOUNDING HAS SHOWN THAT THE MOISTENING AND WARMING TREND CONTINUES IN THE LOWEST LAYERS. AND WE ALSO EXPECT THIS AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH OF US. A WARM FRONT IS DRAWING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE KEYS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE FIRST IN SERIES OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING COOLER CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA. WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD BRIEFLY REACH WIND SPEED OF 30 TO 35 MPH.
THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE OUT OF THE WRN GULF SWEEPING ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND PERIOD. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SEWD ACROSS THE NRN/MID PLAINS. THE LATTER HALF OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO HINTING AT A MORE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.
Cold front has pushed into Osage county and will continue eastward overnight and likely through northwest Arkansas around sunrise.
AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES OVER AND EAST OF THE AREA. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY.
954 PM EST THU JAN 14 2016 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA FRIDAY.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WERE MOVING OVER THE GULF AND BAY WATERS AND INLAND. THIS SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE LOW CEILINGS AND FOG BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z FOR INLAND SITES. /ISSUED 342 PM CST THU JAN 14 2016/ A WAVE FORMED ON THE COASTAL TROUGH AND HAS PUSHED EAST INTO THE LA GULF WATERS LEADING TO LIGHT NE TO E WINDS AT THE COAST AND SE TO S INLAND.
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WHICH DID HAVE A SLIGHT COOLER IMPACT ON MINS TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS ALSO INFLUENCED OUR WEATHER WHICH HAS HELPED LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NORTH TOWARD OUR REGION. MODELS HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH QPF AMOUNTS BUT THE HIGHEST POPS AND THUS BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
For tonight southerly winds will continue as a low pressure system works its way towards the Great Lakes region. This low will work eastward across the region through the day on Friday. The cold front associated with this system will swing through on Friday evening, ushering in colder air. With temperatures falling below freezing any lingering precipitation could transition to light snow showers or flurries. Lows tonight will be warmer, bottoming out in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
710 PM EST THU JAN 14 2016 AVIATION ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN IOWA WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT AND THROUGH MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY.
STILL COULD BE A LITTLE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE CLOSER TO THE DAKOTAS BORDER WHERE MID LEVELS ARE DRIER. COLD FRONT SITUATED ACROSS AREA SHIFTS A BIT EAST LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA OVER LOWER MICHIGAN BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL STILL HAVE THE NORTHLAND IN CYCLONIC FLOW. WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
COLD FRONT PROVIDES SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS A CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH TOMORROW. BUT ONLY A COUPLE LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKESHORE LOOK TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK THIS AFTERNOON WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION STAYS IN THE 20S. WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA SAW AT LEAST A BRIEF FLURRY AT SOME POINT TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. A DISTINCT LACK OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO MAKE FREEZING DRIZZLE A CONCERN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS THE LOW DEPARTS TOMORROW MORNING.
/ISSUED 308 PM CST THU JAN 14 2016/ A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION.
520 PM EST THU JAN 14 2016 LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND BRING RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
851 PM MST THU JAN 14 2016 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL MT INTO NORTHWEST NE INTO SOUTHERN MN. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS MOST -SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH UPSLOPE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND DOWNSTREAM CONVERGENCE OVER THE PINE RIDGE.
AND IT CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTO- GENETIC FORCING DRIVING THE SNOW. SPOTTER REPORTS HAVE REVEALED SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM GLASGOW TO GLENDIVE. THAT IS LIKELY BEING DRIVEN BY DRYING ALOFT SUCH THAT THE LOW- LEVEL SATURATED LAYER IS NO LONGER COLDER THAN -12 C. BUT GIVEN THE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND THERMAL PROFILES THAT ARE NEAR THE FRINGES OF HIGHER-END PROBABILITIES OF ICE CRYSTAL PRODUCTION WE CHOSE TO INCLUDE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN ND THROUGH THE EVENING TOO.
525 PM CST THU JAN 14 2016 COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPS ARE COOLING AND WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S AND 20S THIS EVENING AND EXPECT THE PRECIP TYPE TO QUICKLY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW.
NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH HEADING TOWARD SW OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH A FRONT ROTATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
AND THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF SHEAR IN PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS. STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IN THE LOWEST KILOMETER IS AROUND 270 M2/S2. AND TOTAL SHEAR OVER THE LOWEST 2KM IS 57 KNOTS.
AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT UNTIL THEY BEGIN TO GRADUALLY LIFT AS AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS EXTREME SE OK/E TX BY 12Z.