Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
234 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016 A strong upper ridge will persist over the Mid-South today. With the ridge being centered over the area, expect convection to be suppressed for the most part. The upper ridge will begin to retreat to the south and west tonight. This will allow a cold front to approach from the north on Wednesday.
1245 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016 Surface cold front is making slow but steady progress eastward this afternoon, currently located from near International Falls to far northeast South Dakota. An upper level ridge will extend from the western portion of the Northern Plains well north into Alberta and Saskatchewan.
127 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2016 Closed mid/upper low is in place over southern Colorado/northern New Mexico, with long moist plume of moisture extending from the Pacific across the Plains. Due to the moist nature of the air mass in place, warm rain processes (skinny CAPE/warmer thermal profiles), and slower individual cell motions, any thunderstorms could produce heavy rain (flash flood threat). Regarding temperatures: After cold front and upper low shift east, air mass will be slightly cooler Tuesday than today. If cloud cover and precip remains similar to today then we may barely warm out of the low 70s over parts of our CWA. Other areas may reach the low 80s assuming the cloud cover thins out enough. I trended the temperature from consensus towards the lower end of guidance as confidence in clearing is low.
323 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016 Upper high remains in place across the mid south for today. There is a weakness in the ridge that stretches from the Gulf of Mexico northeastward along the Carolina coast. Thus, high pressure at the sfc will remain to our north and will provide a drier east and northeasterly low level fetch.
The lowest dewpoint depression is at KTRI and expect there will be some MVFR fog develop there over the next couple of hours and persist through 12-13z.
558 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016 A cold front continues to settle into the northern portions of the CWA very early this morning. The cold front will continue to settle southward through the morning hours, becoming situated through the lower Missouri River corridor by late afternoon. This will place the better chances for showers/thunderstorms from the central and eastern Interstate 90 corridor southward into the lower MO River Valley/northwestern IA during the day. While temperatures are also tricky dependent on cloud/precipitation trends, at this point will go with highs in the upper 70s east of Interstate 29 to the lower 80s to the west.
An inverted mid level trough axis just offshore extended northwest. The surface and mid level trough axis will weaken as it moves off to the southwest today. Temps a few degrees warmer also on Wednesday, with heat index values back over 100 along and east of I-35.
252 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 Weak high pressure today. Cold front slides through Wednesday night. Drier and cooler weather to end the week. Weak high pressure over the area today. Main player for the short term is a cold front which will cross the forecast area Wednesday night. For the day Wednesday, we will be in the transition time period between current high pressure exiting and cold front approaching from the northwest. Showers and storms associated with the cold front will cross Wednesday evening and overnight.
A cold front moving down from the north will increase the chances late in the day.
At upper levels, a ridge was building over the Rockies as a low pressure center/trough approaches the western British Columbia/Washington coast.
307 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2016 Fair and seasonable late summer weather is expected today as high pressure drifts atop and east of the area.
An upper trough over southwest Colorado was slowly filling and the upper jet max will continue to bend out just to our north later today and early tonight. Instability perhaps near or over 1000 joules per kilogram will continue to move into our area from central and north Texas, courtesy of an inverted trough probably related to the upper low along the Texas coast. The current rich moisture plume over the area will begin to pivot around the area as an amplified upper ridge moves from overhead to the east. Large scale lift will mostly move away from the region as the ridge moves east and is replaced by broad troughing.
524 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016 Low/Mid level trof axis continues to sink SWD along the lower TX coast this morning, while the upper low continues to spin over the NW Gulf, albeit farther south than it was 24 hrs ago. Flow across the CONUS is forecast to become more amplified mid to late week, with a deep layer ridge building over the Central US and a corresponding downstream TROF, the latter of which will assist in lifting whatever becomes of TD Nine out across the NE Gulf.
255 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2016 Warm and dry weather is expected until the passage of late Wednesday cold front. High pressure should maintain dry and warm weather today as it slides east across the northeastern CONUS. Increased POPs to the high chance category, and opted for scattered coverage wording in the forecast for showers and thunderstorms.
There are some indications this low might weaken tonight into tomorrow but a narrow trof will remain from the Neb Panhandle down to NM. The high will remain well to the N. with a sharpening ridge developing over the Nrn Rockies. This ridge will drift E and into the Midwest/GtLakes by Sat. SW flow will develop here on Fri with a Wrn trof/Ern ridge developing by Sun. it remains highly uncertain what will happen to the trof just to the W of the fcst area. Temps will be cooler than normal thru Fri and then return to near normal this weekend.
226 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016 Much like we have witnessed during the past few days, cooler temperatures aloft combined with strong daytime heating of moist airmass has given way to diurnal thunderstorm development. Meanwhile upper level ridge will amplify over the central US, with a short wave trough sliding southeast across the upper Mississippi valley/Great Lakes region. This will push a cold front southward across the central plains on Wednesday with decent chances of thunderstorms once again.
With a high pressure ridge to our north and Tropical Depression Nine well to our south. High temperatures today in the low to mid 90s interior. Low temperatures tonight in the low 70s inland and mid to upper 70s at the coast.
Lows will mostly be in the 50s, with lower 60s over south central SD and some 40s over the higher Black Hills. This Evening Through Tuesday Night Surface cold front almost stationary across south central SD, still draped between PIR-9V9 and PHP-VTN. Upper low over srn CO- nrn NM is drawing moisture northward ahead of it into central Plains, with some thunderstorms developing over Cherry Co NE along the cold front that may clip south central SD late afternoon and early evening. Upper ridge builds over the northern Plains through midweek. With lee trof developing over MT Tuesday, south winds will warm temperatures in the western zones, but highs will be cooler over central SD where east-southeast winds will prevail.
638 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 High pressure will bring another period of warmer than normal and mainly dry weather into Wednesday.
342 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016 Upper level ridge remains in place this morning with moist low level airmass persisting.
425 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 High pressure will slide east today while a warm front lifts toward the region this afternoon. The warm front will lift north of the area overnight while a cold front approaches for Wednesday.
A short wave trough extending over northeast Wisconsin to southeast Iowa early this morning were also assisting the storms over northeast Wisconsin and developing convection over southwest Wisconsin into northern Illinois. This trough will pass over mainly southeast Wisconsin this morning. A cold front was lagging just behind this line of convection and will continue to drop south over the area today before departing east central Wisconsin this evening. Progs indicate a diminishing period of convection this morning with the short wave trough dropping southeast, then some redevelopment again along the front this afternoon and evening. Later tonight and well after the cold front passage and continuing into Wednesday, north to northeast winds between the departing low pressure system to the northeast and ridging to the west will allow a much drier and more comfortable air mass to filter into the area.
Much cooler air will then filter in across the area for the end of the week behind the front.
Pattern synopsis and forecast: High pressure was over the eastern Great Lakes and much of western Canada early this morning. A cold front extended south of the low, through western Lake Superior and srn MN. The cold front will cross eastern upper by early afternoon, then sweep across nrn lower by late this evening. The air mass will be fairly rich with low level moisture, and this air mass combined with decent daytime heating and an analyzed vorticity maximum set for late morning to afternoon, ought to make it pretty easy to develop at least scattered showers and storms along and ahead of the cold front. however an upper level trough and some lingering moisture will be enough to keep partly to mostly cloudy skies around through Wednesday night.
We will see changes in the pattern begin to take shape from late Wednesday into Wednesday night as a strong upper trough digs southward over the eastern CONUS and eventually draws what is currently Tropical Depression #9 northward through the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and then eventually northeastward and well away from the forecast area. On the back side of the cyclone, less humid air should be drawn southward and this will help to greatly limit shower/ storms, but temperatures will continue to be hotter than normal.
258 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2016 Weak upper disturbances rotating around the anticyclone centered over Oklahoma and a very moist air mass will combine to produce scattered thunderstorms over the region today through Wednesday.
16 Short term period weather pattern dominated by large upper ridge extending from the Mid Atlantic into the Tennessee Valley and Southeastern states weakening as a weak upper level low just off the southeast coast moves slowly westward. At the surface, weak high pressure builds into north GA through tomorrow. Early track ensemble guidance is better clustered around a solution keeping the system well south of the area and in fact aiding in bringing in some drier and hopefully cooler air by the end of the week. GFS is more aggressive in the amplitude of the trough and the scouring out of moisture but both it and the ECMWF show some considerably cooler nighttime conditions for North GA for the weekend.
/06Z TAFS/ Low cigs should be sct v bkn for the next couple nights as a low to mid level low pressure system over the South TX coast sets up a weak surface pressure gradient. A weak mid and upper level low over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico/upper Texas coast will continue to be the main weather feature of interest through the short term portion of the forecast. Above normal moisture will remain in place through Tuesday as easterly flow in the lower and mid-levels continues.
These are likely the result of a short wave within the upper level flow, orbiting the large closed low just offshore of British Columbia. For the most part, the area will remain dry, cooler, and breezy through this evening.
247 AM PDT TUE AUG 30 2016 High pressure will bring warm weather and minimal coastal cloud coverage through Wednesday. A trough of low pressure will move into the West Coast for the entire holiday weekend. High pressure aloft will bring us some hot weather today, in fact the hottest of the coming week. Temperatures will soar over 100 in much of the Inland Empire and over 110 in some of the lower desert. The high pressure ridge will slowly give way to a fairly robust trough over the Pacific Northwest, reminiscent of September just as we turn the calendar.
Upper high remains in place across the mid south for today. There is a weakness in the ridge that stretches from the Gulf of Mexico northeastward along the Carolina coast. Thus, high pressure at the sfc will remain to our north and will provide a drier east and northeasterly low level fetch.
A cold front will stall offshore today then slowly move inland tonight and Wednesday for a little rain. An upper level trough will maintain cooler weather with a chance of showers through the weekend.
124 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 High pressure will be over the area through Tuesday. Low pressure moving across Ontario will pull a cold front south across the area on Wednesday.
114 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 Weak high pressure today. A stronger front on Wednesday ushering in a cooler end to the week. Weak cold front. with the exception of the higher terrain counties during peak afternoon heating hours. High pressure will have a firm hold on the Region through Wednesday.
323 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016 A cold front is slowly sinking southward this morning as a Canadian high pressure building into the region. A few CAMS are suggesting the cold front will stall today with isolated thunderstorms possible across southern SD. The Canadian high pressure and upper level ridging will dominate the rest of the short term portion of the forecast.
519 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2016 Warm and dry weather is expected until the passage of late Wednesday cold front. Otherwise, high pressure should maintain dry and warm weather today as it slides east across the northeastern CONUS. Increased POPs to the high chance category, and opted for scattered coverage wording in the forecast for showers and thunderstorms.
602 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 Weak high pressure today. Cold front slides through Wednesday night. Drier and cooler weather to end the week. Weak high pressure over the area today. Main player for the short term is a cold front which will cross the forecast area Wednesday night. For the day Wednesday, we will be in the transition time period between current high pressure exiting and cold front approaching from the northwest. Showers and storms associated with the cold front will cross Wednesday evening and overnight.
315 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2016 High pressure will remain over the Mid Atlantic will move offshore tonight. A cold front will move through the area Wednesday night. High pressure returns late in the week and the weekend. Surface analysis shows high pressure centered over northern NY wedging down the eastern seaboard. possibly isolated thunderstorms will develop over the Highlands late this afternoon. High pressure will continue to control the weather of the Mid Atlantic tonight and Wednesday. Change comes to the area Wednesday night to usher out meteorological summer/welcome met autumn as a cold front slides down from the northwest.
124 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 High pressure build in through Tuesday night. A cold front will move across from the northwest Wednesday night, followed by high pressure through the weekend. Clear skies overnight as a drier air mass moves in behind the cold front. Lows will range from the lower 70s in NYC, to 55-60 in the interior valleys and in the Long Island Pine Barrens. Sunny skies will prevail on Tuesday, with temps about 5-10 degrees cooler than those of today, in the upper 70s and 80s.
303 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2016 Fair and seasonable late summer weather is expected today as high pressure drifts atop and east of the area.
1233 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016 The forecast has been panning out this evening, as isolated to scattered convection has been developing along a slow-moving cold frontal boundary currently positioned from near Murdo to near Ortonville. Cold front late this afternoon extending from south of Pierre over to Sisseton pushing slowly southward. Otherwise, the models all show Canadian high pressure dominating the entire short term as it builds slowly east across the region through Wednesday night.
An upper level system and associated cold front will push through the region overnight tonight into early Tuesday morning and result in breezy winds, slightly cooler temperatures and the slight possibility of dry thunderstorms over the North Bay. A broad troughing pattern over the West Coast will result dry weather conditions along with temperatures below seasonal averages through the remainder of the week.
239 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016 At 07Z/2am, the cold front was moving through the region and was located from Grand Marais southwestward to just east of Brainerd. Behind the front, high pressure was building across the region. As the high pressure continues across the region this afternoon, the morning clouds will give way to mostly sunny to sunny skies. The high pressure affects the region tonight and Wednesday. Much cooler and drier air will accompany the high.
with the highest coverage in the afternoons during diurnal heating.
254 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016 A cold front continues to settle into the northern portions of the CWA very early this morning. The cold front will continue to settle southward through the morning hours, becoming situated through the lower Missouri River corridor by late afternoon. This will place the better chances for showers/thunderstorms from the central and eastern Interstate 90 corridor southward into the lower MO River Valley/northwestern IA during the day. While temperatures are also tricky dependent on cloud/precipitation trends, at this point will go with highs in the upper 70s east of Interstate 29 to the lower 80s to the west.
354 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016 A weak upper low will remain offshore of the Texas Gulf Coast today, with high pressure situated to the north across Arkansas and Missouri.
438 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 High pressure will bring another period of warmer than normal and mainly dry weather into Wednesday.
/Issued 314 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/ Subtropical moisture will continue to be brought northward across the panhandles between an upper level low to our northwest and a ridge of high pressure to our east through at mid week. A ridge of high pressure will build over the northern rockies by Tuesday and then it will move into the northern plains by Wednesday which will keep the upper level low pretty much parked over Colorado.
649 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 High pressure centered over the Eastern Great Lakes is forecast to keep dry weather over the area today. The threat of showers and thunderstorms will return Wednesday with a cold front.
An upper trough will bring unseasonably cool temperatures across the interior through the work week with better chances for blue skies each afternoon along the coast. HRRR suggests that most of the shower activity should remain offshore as the trough slides over the state into the early afternoon. There were was no indication of lightning associated with the trough yet with relatively warm cloud tops associated with the system. In addition, convective parameters do not look great across the region as the trough seemingly weakens as it approaches the coast. Nevertheless, I maintained a slight chance for thunderstorms through the early afternoon as the trough passage could be enough to trigger an isolated thunderstorm over the area. 500mb heights will continue to fall through the mid and late week as a broad upper trough ushers colder air into the Pacific Northwest.
H5 ridge is expected to persist over the region for the first half of the weekend. However, an old cut off low over the southwest conus will get picked up by a trof entering the west coast. Sunday will be just a bit cooler as more clouds move into the region with the approaching system.
639 AM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 Canadian high pressure will settle into region much of the upcoming week. Expansive continental high pressure is hauling in tons of dry air of higher latitude origin in N-NW flow aloft over the area this morning. Chief caption this period reads 'Seasonably Cool and Dry' as slowly modifying Canadian high pressure and dry N- NW flow aloft prevail across the region.
110 AM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 Cool high pressure will extend across the Carolinas from the north and west through the weekend. If we see dwpts trending toward the lower 30s, then the risk for a more widespread frost will increase. This part of the forecast will be defined by a pattern featuring a mid-level ridge slowly drifting eastward across the southeast and mid atlantic regions, and the dry air with it. At the surface, high pressure will remain over our region for most of the period.
305 AM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 The low level circulation surrounding high pressure anchored over the Ohio Valley is advecting a warmer and slightly more humid low level airmass into Lower Mi. Thus far, low cloud/fog development within the modest moisture advection has been limited to portions of the higher terrain of west-central Lower Mi. This will support afternoon highs in the low to mid 60s.
444 AM MDT Sat Nov 5 2016 Some high clouds over parts of the CWA ahead of an upper low currently moving north along the Az/NM border. The low will drift slowly north to the 4 corners area today and continue to spread mainly mid and high clouds across much of the CWA.
Models continue to show this low getting kicked northeast later today and tonight.
Otherwise, high pressure will lead to light winds and VFR conditions.
306 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016 Early this morning high pressure was centered over southern Illinois. The main axis of this ridge had slide east of the area leading to south and southwest winds across the area. Today, warmer H85 temps should advect into the area leading to temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s across the area.
352 AM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 Strong Canadian high pressure will build into the area, settling over the region much of the upcoming week.
At the surface, high pressure extends across the Midwest into the southern High Plains. Aloft, a cut-off upper level low is positioned over southern Arizona, slowly drifting northeast. The upper low that is expected to bring showers to the region continues to trend slower within model consensus. Saturday night shows an embedded trough within a large ridge. This trough will continue to move towards the CWA during the night and bring chances for precipitation due to an influx of moisture into the region from the Gulf of Mexico. Sunday brings continued precipitation chances as the trough moves over the region. The western CONUS shows a ridge building and there is also another ridge in the eastern CONUS.
356 AM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 High pressure will remain in control of the weather through midweek. A cold front may move through the region towards the end of the week.
209 AM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 High pressure will build over our region though today. A weak cold front will move across the area tonight.
A weak cold front will bring a few showers to the east coast TAF sites, with VCSH indicated at KPBI, KFXE, and KFLL as early as 09z with convection approaching from the north, and from 18z at KOPF, KMIA, and KTMB. The shallow moist air present will continue to potentially support rain showers, particularly with the presence of the mid-level trough swinging through and lower level atmospheric moisture ripples as the boundary dissipates. As high pressure begins to build in behind the front to kick off the next work week, shower chances should continue to remain in the lower end of the spectrum.
131 AM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016 Strong Canadian high pressure will build into the area tonight, settling over the region much of the upcoming week.
253 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016 A warm and quiet weather pattern looks to continue for some time across the region, with ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface remaining in control.
Temperatures will again trend above normal over the next several days before a weak cold front approaches the region by the middle of next workweek. Sharp ridge over the nations mid section with northwest flow over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Highs today will be a little warmer, generally in the lower and middle 60s. The mid level ridge will amplify and build east into the Great Lakes this weekend. Lows will be a few degrees warmer with lows in the upper 30s east to lower 40s west. Lows Sunday night will drop to readings ranging from the upper 30s far east to the lower/mid 40s west.