Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Expect mainly dry conditions through the early morning hours today as a ridge of high pressure remains overhead. This ridge begins to break down later today and tonight as a cold front begins to slip south out of Iowa into northern Missouri. This will drive the cold front through the area. Expect showers and thunderstorms out ahead of it for most locations at least through the early evening hours before drier and cooler air begins to filter into the region from the north.
230 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016 An upper level ridge of high pressure over the Mid South this afternoon has kept hot. The upper ridge will break down on Wednesday as a stronger upper level trough digs across the Northeast and Mid Atlantic States. This trough will serve two purposes as it will send a cold front south towards the area as well as deflect the Gulf tropical system towards the northeast and away from our forecast region.
Upstream energy shows a large early fall Canadian high pressure to overspread the entire region tonight and Wednesday bringing splendid early fall weather. Highs should be cooler, within a couple degrees of normal with upper 70s north to lower 80s south.
High pressure remained in place over the Southern Plains this morning with mostly clear and light wind conditions over Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Current forecast package seems to be on track this morning as afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 90s and areas of scattered to broken mid clouds are forecast for the CWA.
256 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016 Weak cold front is slowly approaching Central Illinois, with slightly cooler and drier air behind it.
331 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016 (Tonight and Wednesday) Currently, there is an upper low near the TX Gulf Coast, with anticyclonic flow centered near northeastern OK/southern MO. The weak low just off the TX coast is expected to slide slightly farther south while the ridge to our northeast expands its influence farther south and west into our region.
One more day of warm and humid weather is in store today as high pressure over the Ohio Valley continues to keep a tropical air mass in place over Indiana. A Cold front will approach central Indiana tonight from the upper midwest.
1154 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2016 Weak upper disturbances rotating around the anticyclone centered over Oklahoma and a very moist air mass will combine to produce scattered thunderstorms over the region today through Wednesday.
403 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016 Latest WV imagery shows two items of interest near the Gulf region, the upper low near the TX coast and TD9 moving nw acrs the sern Gulf of Mexico. Deep ely winds between the upper low and a ridge cntrd acrs cntl portions of the MS valley was bringing drier air into the region. Overall, conditions have been rather nice today with partly to mostly sunny skies, temperatures in the lower to middle 90s and relative humidities around 50 percent. An amplified pattern is fcst to develop acrs the CONUS through the week as a deep ridge builds acrs the srn and cntl plains behind a digging trough over the ern states.
229 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2016 Upper level analysis has ridge over the western CONUS with trof off the west coast. At the surface, high pressure is located across North Dakota with a weak boundary across the area. Upper ridge remains over the northern Plains with mainly clear and dry conditions expected. Upper ridge will hold through the day with mostly sunny skies and warm conditions persisting.
/issued 320 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016/ Rain chances will continue through tomorrow as the weak trough to our west slowly fills and upper-level jet energy starts to shift off to the northeast of the forecast area. The Rolling Plains may see temps slightly warmer as coverage of precipitation in the models is a bit less than in previous days.
The latest water vapor satellite loop also shows a mid and upper low over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. On Wednesday, the mid and upper low drifts southwestward and the deeper moisture will begin to move south of the region.
on the northern periphery of an elongated upper low over Colorado.
An upper level system and associated cold front pushing through the region this morning will result in breezy winds and slightly cooler temperatures today. A broad troughing pattern over the West Coast will result dry weather conditions along with temperatures below seasonal averages through the remainder of the week. A mid/upper level trough is currently pushing onshore over northern California at this hour and has allowed for a well mixed out marine layer. The longwave pattern has a very broad upper trough off the Pac NW/West Coast. Embedded in the trough is an upper level low that is due west of Point Arena heading toward the North Bay.
A large area of high pressure will build in Canada and exert its influence on our region through the end of the week with cooler and drier conditions. Little if any lingering storms will make it past the late evening and a strong area of high pressure in Canada will usher in a welcome change in season to more normal temperatures and much drier air.
232 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 Weak high pressure today. Cold front slides through Wednesday night. Drier and cooler weather to end the week. Some showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon across an axis of a theta e ridge in the West Virginia Mountains. Skies will clear out tonight with weak high pressure remaining overhead. overall it should remain mostly dry with a cold front approaching the region from the northwest in the afternoon. Main player for the short term is a cold front which will cross the forecast area Wednesday night. For the day Wednesday, we will be in the transition time period between current high pressure exiting and cold front approaching from the northwest. Showers and storms associated with the cold front will cross Wednesday evening and overnight.
The upper ridge centered across southern MO and northern AR will continue drifting slowly southwestward toward North TX tonight and Wednesday but will weaken in the process. This seems to be one reason why isolated convection has been able to develop in these areas this afternoon as the ridge's associated subsidence has not been sufficient to suppress the weak ascent from buoyancy and low- level convergence. A similar setup should be in place across North and Central TX on Wednesday as the ridge continues to shift southwestward.
/issued 354 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016/ A weak upper low will remain offshore of the Texas Gulf Coast today, with high pressure situated to the north across Arkansas and Missouri.
219 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016 2PM observations are coming in with temps in the lower 90s and dew points in the middle 60s with a few locations in the lower 60s. Any showers/storms should dissipate quickly with sunset with a dry night ahead and lows in the lower 70s. An upper low develops north of the Great Lakes with a cold front draped across the central midwest. Ahead of that, a weak trough will move south towards the area Wednesday afternoon. Highs on Wednesday will still be able to reach the lower to middle 90s as most of the area will be under mostly sunny skies. Lows will be in the lower 70s.
Upper level high pressure over our region that has been bringing all of the hot and humid conditions lately will finally be forced sw into the Southern Plains during the short term as a mid lvl short wave digs southeast from the Midwest region on Wednesday.
407 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2016 Clouds will be on the increase across the north country overnight, as a cold front approaches from Canada. On Wednesday, a cold front will move south from Canada and will bring rain showers to the region, along with a slight chance for thunderstorms.
A cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms later Wednesday and Wednesday night. A cooler pattern will follow for the remainder of the week. Clouds will begin to increase especially after 06Z as isentropic upglide develops aloft, but the lower levels should remain too dry to allow precipitation prior to 12Z. The main event will be the cold frontal passage late Wednesday and Wednesday night. However, we cannot rule out some at least briefly heavier rainfall rates, given the high moisture content and sufficient warm cloud depths.
Temperatures are cool with generally mid to upper 50s across the lower elevations. broad high pressure aloft will continue with embedded energy and moisture trapped underneath across Colorado. Most high-res models have the highest concentration of showers and thunderstorms over the southern Sangre de Cristo mountains, east into the Raton Mesa for this afternoon and evening. Afternoon high temperatures will remain on the cooler side with generally 70s across the plains.
256 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 High pressure will keep it warmer than normal and mainly dry into Wednesday.
528 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 High pressure will keep it warmer than normal and mainly dry into Wednesday.
The trough appears to be across southern IA per the 19z analysis while the true cold front may be lagging across ND/MN/WI.
Temperatures range from the upper 70s in rain cooled areas to the lower 80s elsewhere.
The short range model guidance indicate the shear axis sliding slowly southward across the Kansas region late Tonight through Wednesday, in response to upper troughing digging into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley.
A broad upper level trough over the West Coast will remain in place through late week and result in dry weather conditions along with temperatures below seasonal averages. A mid/upper level trough that continues to push through the region has resulted in mostly sunny conditions this afternoon with temperatures in the 60s near the coast to lower 80s inland. As a broad mid/upper level trough remains positioned along much of the West Coast through late week, temperatures will continue to be below seasonal averages, especially inland.
The cold front continues to sink southward through the day today, but again, with such a saggy/baggy pressure gradient, the convergence with the boundary is weak. Wed-Fri still setting up to be some real nice days with high pressure at the surface and an amplified upper level ridge axis meandering across the Upper Mississippi River Valley.
A cold front is slowly sinking southward this morning as a Canadian high pressure building into the region. A few CAMS are suggesting the cold front will stall today with isolated thunderstorms possible across southern SD. The Canadian high pressure and upper level ridging will dominate the rest of the short term portion of the forecast.
Isolated to scattered convection has fired up once, mainly confined to the Highway 80 and Hal Rogers Parkway corridors. Showers and storms have formed along the Virginia and Tennessee borders this afternoon in response to an upper level low moving into the Carolinas and spreading moisture into the area. Tonight, the upper level ridge will finally start to break down as a trough digs southward towards the Great Lakes.
335 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2016 A ridge of high pressure over the Intermountain west will dominate the weather pattern in the short term. High pressure will shift slightly east as a closed low impacts the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday.
405 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2016 Clouds will be on the increase across the north country overnight, as a cold front approaches from Canada. On Wednesday, a cold front will move south from Canada and will bring rain showers to the region, along with a slight chance for thunderstorms.
The cold front is just about to exit the Wisconsin portion for the forecast area. At 07Z/2am, the cold front was moving through the region and was located from Grand Marais southwestward to just east of Brainerd. Behind the front, high pressure was building across the region. As the high pressure continues across the region this afternoon, the morning clouds will give way to mostly sunny to sunny skies. The high pressure affects the region tonight and Wednesday. Much cooler and drier air will accompany the high.
A weak cold front will approach the area tomorrow.
A cold front will approach the CWFA from the north later tomorrow.
Satellite also showed an mid level trough over Colorado.
Chances tonight will continue as there will be weak low level moisture convergence ahead of the surface cold front coming down from the north. There will be some weak mid level support from a mid level trough that will move into the area from the north. Dew point temperatures should fall into the 50s and lower 60s as high pressure builds across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night): forecast details through the period to be driven by the movement of the mid/upper level low currently situated over the northwest Gulf. For tonight, as well as the remainder of the forecast period, will see the low over the Gulf slowly sink southward and fill/weaken.
246 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 High pressure will remain off the northeast coast tonight giving the area a mild and rain free night. A cold front will slide through the region Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Behind this front, cooler and dry weather will last into the weekend as a large Canadian high pressure system dominates our region. Skies will remain mostly sunny for the rest of the afternoon with high pressure dominating. Then for tonight, short wave trough which was presently over northern Ontario will move east with the trough axis reaching James Bay Canada by 12Z Wednesday. Dewpoints are only projected to reach into the low to mid 60s. But, mid levels are a bit cooler than last couple rounds of storms with 500 mb temperatures projected to be around -8C.
333 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 Showers and storms have formed along the Virginia and Tennessee borders this afternoon in response to an upper level low moving into the Carolinas and spreading moisture into the area. Tonight, the upper level ridge will finally start to break down as a trough digs southward towards the Great Lakes.
223 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2016 High pressure will remain over the Mid Atlantic today, moving offshore Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will move through the area Wednesday night. High pressure returns late in the week, lasting through the weekend. High pressure the main surface feature today impacting the region, resulting in predominately dry conditions. A change in the pattern finally Wednesday as the high moves out of the area as a cold front slowly moves in from the west.
Concur with the GFS ensemble mean that the upper low just offshore will remain quasi-stationary. GFS ensemble mean output suggests that the upper ridge to the north will build over the Region Tonight/Wednesday and decrease the upper forcing support for convection.
256 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 Weak high pressure today. Cold front slides through Wednesday night. Drier and cooler weather to end the week. Some showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon across an axis of a theta e ridge in the West Virginia Mountains. Skies will clear out tonight with weak high pressure remaining overhead. overall it should remain mostly dry with a cold front approaching the region from the northwest in the afternoon.
weak northerly winds will keep the low clouds sct-v-bkn this morning and Wed morning. An inverted mid level trough axis just offshore extended northwest. The surface and mid level trough axis will weaken as it moves off to the southwest today. Temps a few degrees warmer also on Wednesday, with heat index values back over 100 along and east of I-35.
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 High pressure will remain off the northeast coast tonight giving the area a mild and rain free night. A cold front will slide through the region Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Behind this front, cooler and dry weather will last into the weekend as a large Canadian high pressure system dominates our region. Skies will remain mostly sunny for the rest of the afternoon with high pressure dominating. Then for tonight, short wave trough which was presently over northern Ontario will move east with the trough axis reaching James Bay Canada by 12Z Wednesday. Dewpoints are only projected to reach into the low to mid 60s. But, mid levels are a bit cooler than last couple rounds of storms with 500 mb temperatures projected to be around -8C.
129 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2016 The remnants of the closed mid/upper low (now weakened)are over northeastern Colorado, with weak troughing in place across our CWA. Precip this afternoon-Tonight: Showers/thunderstorms are in the process of increasing in coverage with steepening lapse rates beneath h7/h5 trough.
Some high-res convective allowing model guidance continues to indicate the heavy rain rates continuing overnight, but confidence is not exactly on the high end at this point.
Better support will then shift to the southern parts of the area on Wednesday as upper trough continues to move to the s and sw. Highs tomorrow should rebound with temperatures in the lower to mid 90s.
Expecting mild and dry weather for the rest of this week with locally breezy conditions (mainly delta & ridgetops) as the main trough continues to linger over the West Coast. Mostly cloudy skies across interior NorCal early this morning as high-level moisture moves northward ahead of the low off the BC coast.
127 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 Weak high pressure today. Cold front slides through Wednesday night. Drier and cooler weather to end the week. Weak high pressure over the area today. Main player for the short term is a cold front which will cross the forecast area Wednesday night. For the day Wednesday, we will be in the transition time period between current high pressure exiting and cold front approaching from the northwest. Showers and storms associated with the cold front will cross Wednesday evening and overnight.
Not expecting this activity to become widespread, so kept POPs on the low side. As we move into Wednesday and Wednesday night, the trough moving across the Great Lakes pulls a cold front through the region, increasing chances for showers, especially across northwestern portions of Oklahoma where moisture remains the highest.
The upper ridge that's been off to our north for quite a while is beginning to break down. However, enough ridging aloft and drier air from 1000-500mb has prevented much of any convective development across the northern half of Central Alabama today. Dewpoints have actually mixed down into the low and mid 60s for areas along and north of the I-20 corridor this afternoon.
High pressure will continue to build in over the area today. an upper low is moving east across NE Manitoba into Hudson Bay while an upper ridge builds over the Rockies.
* Unsettled conditions continue through the work week, but drier and warmer this weekend.
As this feature continues sliding southeastward, its upper trough axis will merge with a separate disturbance noted over CO/NEB early this morning, and this upper support eventually drives a cold front through the LSX CWA. After the moisture gradient has moved through the area, a cooler and drier air mass will then settle across the region for the end of the week. Although limited upper support combined with daytime heating ahead of the bdry may initially slow its southward progress, the arrival of the aforementioned upper trough after 18z will finally push the bdry southward through the CWA. Kanofsky Cooler and drier conditions will settle across the region for Thu/Fri.
The upper ridge axis will continue to build over the western Plains, with high pressure over the Red River Valley. The warm air advection will shift eastward overnight as high pressure begins to pull away.
We think the upper level ridge will suppress clouds and deep convection, but short range models hint at isolated development for the Plateau, Upper Cumberland, and perhaps our far west counties. Otherwise, with plenty of sunshine, temperatures will climb to the low to mid 90s, except upper 80s Plateau. VFR will continue for BNA and CKV today under high pressure. A few showers are already bubbling up across the higher terrain around CSV.
Well pronounced ridging aloft looks to keep our weather dry today with weak subsidence aloft and limited low and mid level moisture. A little bit cooler Wednesday per thickness and 700 mb temperature trends.
Precip chances will persist tonight into Wednesday regardless of an upper level ridge of high pressure moving out of the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains. Lows are expected back down into the 60s(F) across much of the area with the lower 70s(F) possible in south central Kansas. Depending on wetter ground and increased cloud cover, highs are only expected to reach the 70s(F) in some locations Wednesday afternoon with the lower to mid 80s(F) possible in south central Kansas.
Lack of cloud cover has allowed temps to warm up into the lower 80s so far, heading towards the lower 90s by this afternoon. Added in isolated showers/thunderstorms for this afternoon in NE AL and southern middle TN, mainly for the higher terrain. More CU/TCU formation is possible in the higher terrain north and east of KHSV, with an isolated shower or thunderstorm a slim possibility this afternoon.
Much like we have witnessed during the past few days, cooler temperatures aloft combined with strong daytime heating of moist airmass has given way to diurnal thunderstorm development. Meanwhile upper level ridge will amplify over the central US, with a short wave trough sliding southeast across the upper Mississippi valley/Great Lakes region. This will push a cold front southward across the central plains on Wednesday with decent chances of thunderstorms once again.
A broad upper level low and trough is located in the eastern Pacific.
Southwesterly flow aloft will persist as a low pressure trough over/near the Pacific Northwest coast and a high pressure ridge over eastern MT and the Canadian Prairies move little. A few -SHRA and -TSRA may develop over the higher terrain of Central/Southwest MT and the Continental Divide this afternoon and persist into the evening.
For now we will be under a ridge axis over the next 24 hours. This is going to bring a cooler and drier airmass into the area, with afternoon dewpoints in the 50s and highs in the 70s.
354 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2016 Very weak flow is present over northeast Colorado this afternoon as a decaying upper level low drifts northeastward. Weak subsidence is moving in Wednesday evening as ridge axis slowly builds in from the north.
An upper ridge was building over the central rockies this afternoon, while a trough was deepening off the Pacific northwest coast.
Further north, a cold front over South Dakota through central Minnesota will continue to sag southeast throughout the day and look to creep into northern Iowa past 21z today. Models might be overdoing the amount instability building into the state today with much of the cloud cover looking to hang around before the cold front clears out the atmosphere later tonight.
Most of the convection will dissipate by mid evening, but may continue overnight in west central and northwest Oklahoma as a weak mid-level trough moves across eastern Colorado and western Kansas.
An upper trough will bring unseasonably cool temperatures across the interior through the work week while coastal areas see a mix of sun and clouds each afternoon. The Upper lows off the pacific coast have basically obliterated the marine layer as little or no stratus is being depicted by vis sat imagery this afternoon. With the trough off the coast. 500mb heights will continue to fall through the mid and late week as a broad upper trough ushers colder air into the Pacific Northwest.