Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SURFACE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINES. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THIS EVENING WHICH IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA AND EASTERN GULF. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE STATE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS MICHIGAN. WITH AIRMASS MODIFICATION RESULTING IN HIGHS TOMORROW 2 OR 3 DEGS WARMER THAN TODAY.
625 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015 THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A TROF EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GRT LKS. BUT WILL BANK ON DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE LOCALLY ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE COLUMN TO KEEP THIS AREA JUST AN ENHANCED BAND OF CU AS IT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND WILL NOT MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. WITH BOTH A RIDGE ALOFT AND LLVL HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST ACRS THE REGION.
LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF E CENTRAL FL.
851 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER MUCH OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT. /ISSUED 622 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER ARKANSAS.
COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY AND MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. STILL WATCHING AND WAITING FOR THE NEXT UPPER LOW TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. 07 /ISSUED 205 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/ LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST. LOW CLOUDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO ERODE BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTH CAROLINA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NRN TX INTO SASKATCHEWAN. UPSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE IS A DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S FRIDAY MORNING BUT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL AS CLOUDS.
/ISSUED 344 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/ WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WORKING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN STATE OF CHIHUAHUA. THE COMPLEX UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY BEFORE EJECTING SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. EMERGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS WEEKEND AS MORE ENERGY DROPS DOWN THE WESTERN CONUS.
A COLD UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
916 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY KEEPING THINGS DRY AND UNSEASONABLE COOL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
WL NEED TO ISSUE A FREEZING WARNING FOR VILAS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED SOME PATCHY FROST FOR THE COOLER LOCATIONS OF CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.
740 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A STALLED FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA O FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MEMORIAL DAY.
937 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY EXTEND INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. COLD FRONT IS CONTINUING ITS SLOW BUT SURE PROGRESS THROUGH MICHIGAN PRODUCING VERY LIGHT RETURNS ON THE RADAR WITH IT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE IN NORTHERN OHIO AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. STAYED NEAR A MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS EXCEPT IN CENTRAL OHIO WHERE FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE COOLER NUMBERS.
1012 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS FOR THE REGION.
625 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 205 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/ LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST. LOW CLOUDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO ERODE BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTH CAROLINA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE COOLER. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF OUR CWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAVE MOVED INTO OUR CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BUT A THICK LAYER OF STRATUS WAS OVER MOST OF OUR AREA WITH A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 50S AND TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 50S OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES. LAMAR AND FORREST COUNTIES BUT THIS CHANCE WILL END BY EVENING AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THIS WILL HELP THE COOLER DRIER AIR PUSH FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR CWA AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
1010 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
926 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM JUST OFF THE FLORIBAMA COASTLINE TO A THOMASVILLE AND SAVANNAH GA LINE WILL SLOWLY SAG THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BE WELL SOUTH OF OUR LOCAL WATER ZONES BY SUNRISE. KEEPING THE LOWER LEVELS MIXED UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW NEAR SUNRISE TEMEPRATURE READINGS TO DIP NEAR THE 60 F MARK ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN SE AL AND SO GA COUNTIES.
729 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING AREAS OF CLOUDS TO MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER SOME CLEARING LATE TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING MORE CLOUDS. COOL WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY FALLING TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT.
622 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER ARKANSAS.
WILL DECREASE POPS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT BUT THINK CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN AS THE UPPER LOW VERY SLOWLY PULLS EAST. LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE EAST TO WEST BASED ON THE LOW'S POSITION IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO SOUTHERN NEVADA. THIS IS DUE TO BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW FAVORING MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WHICH WOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS.
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY OUR WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS.
640 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT LIFTING THE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE LAKESHORE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES MONDAY NIGHT DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. DRAGGING STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SPLIT DUE TO THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE THE HIGH CLOUDINESS MAY REDUCE SURFACE HEATING ENOUGH TO PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
COULD PRODUCE STRONG MESOCYCLONES AND GENERATE LOCAL MAXIMA IN UPDRAFT HELICITY.
340 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL SD. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND THEN EASTERLY PATH OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST TONIGHT WITH A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS RETURNING MONDAY WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE COMING WEEK. RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS SEEN ON SATELLITE. OVERNIGHT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE OREGON COASTAL REGION.
255 PM PDT SUN MAY 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. BEFORE A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASS OVER THE AREA.
1132 AM MDT SUN MAY 10 2015 QUICK UPDATE FOR ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE E MTS. AS TEMPS COOL TONIGHT SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER AND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S AND COOLER. WITH A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THOUGH AGAIN WILL KEEP SLIGHT POPS CONFINED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
1204 PM CDT Sun May 10 2015 18Z TAF issuance Great flying conditions continue behind a Pacific cold front that moved through last night. A cold front will arrive during the 12Z-14Z Monday morning switching winds to the northeast.
249 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015 SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WAS CHARACTERIZED BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES WITH A RIDGE EAST. MODEL RUNS THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND AGREEABLE THAT RIDGE HOLDS OUT IN THE SOUTH WITH VERY LITTLE HEIGHT FALLS AS THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM EXITS FAR NORTH.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS EVENING AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
IN THE MEANTIME WE HAVE HAD SOME WET SNOW IN EASTERN CARTER COUNTY FROM THE MONSTER UPPER LOW OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH REPORTS OF 1-3 INCHES ON NATURAL TERRAIN AS OF MIDDAY. BUT UPPER FLOW SHIFTS BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AGAIN FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS NEXT TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
354 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015 UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS HAS ALLOWED THE DRYLINE TO MIX EASTWARD INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY SOUTHWEST TO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. A STALLED OUT COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SIT ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE FAR NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. WITH THE NET RESULT BEING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT A FEW DEGREES COOLER. RANGING FROM THE LOW-MID 70S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS TO MID-UPPER 70S FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. THE RETREAT OF THIS DRYLINE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT COMBINED WITH APPROACH OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT RAISES SOME QUESTION AS TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A LAYER OF SHALLOW AND PATCHY STRATUS MAY ENSUE GIVEN ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG/BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
MEDIUM CLOSED UPPER LOW IN SD PROGGD MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARDS WRN MN. MESO MODELS ALL SHOW CONVECTION RIDING INTO THE AREA TOWARDS MID EVENING AIDED BY STRENGTHENING LLJ AND SLOW NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF WARM FRONT. SREF CIG/VSBY PROS SHOW AN EXPANSION OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE CWA WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN PRIME AREA NORTH OF WARM FRONT. UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS JET CORE ORIENTS ITSELF FAVORABLY ON EAST SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH. 850 THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST PRETTY QUICK AS WELL SO IDEA THAT PRIMARY REDEVELOPMENT TAKES SHAPE TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON SEEMS REASONABLE. HOWEVER SPC 4KM WRF DOES SHOW SOME WEAK DEVELOPMENT WITHIN DRY SLOT AND FAVORABLE DCVA REGION OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
249 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH MONDAY.
THE FREEZING LEVEL IS DOWN TO JUST ABOVE 12000FT. /ISSUED 352 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015/ * PULSE STRONG-SEVERE TSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WESTERN INTERIOR * MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY TRANQUIL WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS SOUTH FL THIS MORNING WITH RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. THE RIDGE WILL LIFT NORTH INTO CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE HIGH INSTABILITY, BELIEVE THAT ONE OR TWO PULSE SEVERE TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCALES SO WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN OUR PRODUCTS. THE PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE WITH A RIDGE TO OUR NORTH, SETTING UP AN EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW PATTERN.
323 PM MDT SUN MAY 10 2015 NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT ALL THE SNOW AND RAIN YESTERDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WITH NORTHERN VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS SEEING FREEZING OR JUST BELOW FREEZING TEMPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BRINGING A PLEASANT START TO THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER LOW DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL CAUSE A RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY 12Z/TUE AS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON.
320 PM CDT Sun May 10 2015 The upper level low continued to lift north into south central SD this afternoon. Lows will drop into the lower to mid 40s. Monday, Low-level CAA with west-northwest surface winds will keep highs in the lower to mid 60s. There may be some afternoon CU as the cold core of the upper trough will be over residual moisture at the surface, thus when temps reach Tc, scattered to broken boundary layer CU will develop by afternoon. Nearly all the ascent ahead of the upper trough will be well east of the CWA.
232 PM MDT SUN MAY 10 2015 THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER COLORADO THIS EVENING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. SOME MINIMAL POPS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY BUT THAT WILL BE IT. STILL QUITE COOL TO START THE WEEK OUT WITH LINGERING SNOW COVER MELTING OFF ON MONDAY A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVER COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT.
309 PM MDT SUN MAY 10 2015 Warm and dry weather will continue for the rest of today as the area resides under a weak ridging pattern. However, the disturbance becomes stretched and weakened as it interacts with the large low pressure entering from the west, which will limit its impact. The more prominent feature of impact will be the incoming low pressure system beginning later Monday into the rest of the week. In addition, a Canadian high pressure will be pushing southward Monday which will increase the east-northeast flow along Western Montana ahead of the Pacific Northwest low.
MEFFER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BEGIN TO SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS ORIENTED SW TO NE FROM MEXICO TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THAT HAS BEEN KEEPING THE CWA MOSTLY DRY LATELY.
341 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH MONDAY.
306 PM PDT SUN MAY 10 2015 DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE THROUGH MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A COOLING TREND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK. SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE MOUNTAINS OTHERWISE SUNNY ACROSS CENCAL WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE WARMING TREND WILL BE SHORT LIVED LASTING UNTIL LATE MONDAY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE OVER NCAL.
258 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015 A WARM FRONT FROM JUST NORTH OF MACOMB TO JUST SOUTH OF PEORIA AND NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON/NORMAL WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES THE REST OF TODAY. UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF WARM FRONT WITH CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND PROJECTED TO PEAK FROM 1500-2500 J/KG BETWEEN 21Z-01Z. MORE CONVECTION PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL IL BY OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD WEST CENTRAL IL BY 12Z MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S WITH COOLER LOWER 60S BY GALESBURG. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SOMEWHAT FASTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. COOLER/DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
340 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT LIFTING THE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE LAKESHORE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES MONDAY NIGHT DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. DRAGGING STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE I HAVE TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. MODELS SHOW A LONG WAVE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MONTANA INTO MISSISSIPPI AREA. AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. BETWEEN THE LONG WAVES THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE CWA AND OVER NEW MEXICO.
BUT MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS AND OTHERS ARE DEVELOPING ON THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE PONCA CITY AREA. APPEARS THAT CONVECTION COULD BEGIN BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND MOVE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE ON MON AND MON NIGHT. ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. THEN A BETTER CHANCE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER EASTERN CO.
/ISSUED 337 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015/ GEORGIA REMAINS INFLUENCED BY WEAK RIDGING. SANDWICHED BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM ANA OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE AREA. 31 GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING NORTHWEST GEORGIA MONDAY NIGHT.
TS WILL FINALLY RETURN TO THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.
330 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015 SFC ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN CONUS/NERN GULF RIDGING WWD OVER THE AREA. WHILE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES PUSHING NWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. WITH A DEEP TROF DIGGING ALL THE WAY INTO OLD MEXICO. WHILE SFC OBS/SATELLITE IMAGERY DENOTE PLENTY OF CUMULUS AND WARM TEMPS AROUND THE REGION (ALTHOUGH MANY SPOTS ARE A DEGREE OR THREE COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY).
A cold front will push south into the Big Country late tonight, and may reach KABI by 12Z Monday, with winds shifting to north-northeast with the frontal passage. The highest PoPs during the day today are for our east and southeast counties, mainly for the convective activity this morning. With an upper trough axis still to our west, could have additional scattered shower/thunderstorm development through the day. The upper trough to our west will lift northeast across our area tonight, with rain chances dropping off from the west. A cold front will push south into the Big Country late tonight.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT FURTHER EAST TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. BUT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DELTA BY MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA.
249 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL PASSAGE OF A MONDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT. CL COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE IT'S APPROACH MONDAY. SOME CONVECTION MAY POP EARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING TO SW WITH THE DEPARTURE OF ANA. UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
A cold front will move through the region on Monday with gusty north to northeast winds behind it. For now, will hold off including any lower ceilings at KHOB and KMAF until it is more certain the lower ceilings will form Monday afternoon. /ISSUED 311 PM CDT Sun May 10 2015/ Dry air in place across the entire area today so no severe weather expected, but a weak cold front arrives tomorrow and will be located around the lower Trans Pecos tomorrow afternoon possibly serving as a focus for severe convection.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 88 65 89 65 / 30 20 30 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 86 64 86 65 / 30 20 40 40 OAK RIDGE, TN 86 64 87 64 / 30 20 40 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 86 59 86 61 / 20 20 40 40.
1226 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE A S/W TROF WAS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA OVER THE SE THIRD OF THE STATE. AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING ALOFT OCCURS AND DRY EAST FLOW FEEDS INTO THE REGION. PCPN CHANCES WILL RAMP UP TONIGHT AS A S/W TROF MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AND A H8 WARM FRONT AND SFC OCCLUDED FRONT IMPACT THE REGION.
659 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN FOR MIDWEEK. A SHORT WAVE AND PER-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH STORMS OCCURRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
525 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL PASSAGE OF A MONDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE IT'S APPROACH MONDAY. SOME CONVECTION MAY POP EARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING TO SW WITH THE DEPARTURE OF ANA. UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
APPROACHING STRONG/DEEP COLD FRONT IN CONCERT WITH UPPER LEVEL PV/VORT LOBE APPROACHING FROM FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD INITIATE SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. BY MON AFTERNOON THE UPPER LOW WILL BE APPROACHING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE LAST PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY ROTATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON KEEPING THE PATTERN ACTIVE BY SLOWLY BRINGING IN ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN BY SAT MORNING. A COLD FRONT.
312 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT.
This afternoon, surface analysis showed weak high pressure across central/eastern Kentucky. Severe storm setup/thinking for Monday hasn't changed too much from previous forecast as focus for storm initiation is expected to be a pre-frontal trough during the mid afternoon, then depending on timing and destabilization, as the main cold front arrives later in the evening. The majority of the shear lies in the lowest 3 km, values around 40 kts, which supports bowing/line segments.
WE EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES AND EVEN AN APPROACHING DRY LINE AND COLD FRONT. THE DRY LINE WILL ENTER INTO THE WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND BE OVERTAKEN BY THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THE BEST AIR AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION AND THIS IS WHERE WE FEEL THE HIGHEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE.
417 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER MONTANA AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST AND A SPRING STORM MOVES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.
BREEZY WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WHILE REMAINING AROUND 10-15 KNOTS. THE OVERALL PATTERN THIS MOTHERS DAY WILL ASSUME A SLOWER PACE DOWNSTREAM OF A BROAD AND WEAKENING TROUGH POISED TO OUR WEST. AS THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH /CHARACTERIZED BY SLIM HEIGHT FALLS/ ARRIVES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.