Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
May hit the freezing mark over the northeast past of the forecast area including Alexandria. Rains associated with a weak disturbance moving overhead accompanied by a weak surface trof/low over the near coastal waters.
345 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2020 This evening's main impact will be areas of blowing snow in the vicinity of the Buffalo Ridge in southwest MN and adjacent parts of east central SD and northwest IA, where blowing and drifting snow are being reported with visibility as low as a half mile at times. Terrain and elevation influences in this region will keep winds the highest (gusting up to 55 mph) through the evening. Meager moisture content and weak ascent associated with the passing cold front and positively tilted longwave trough aloft shouldn't allow for any measurable precipitation tonight, but may bring some mid level clouds through the region overnight and early Saturday.
At the surface, cold advection prevails behind the upper trough in association with sprawling high pressure. This ridge of high pressure will continue to advect east today, crossing through the OH valley tonight, then setting up east of the Appalchians on Saturday. At the surface, flow looks to shift sly/swly as well given the position of the ridge to the east.
The rest of the period will see increasing mid level clouds as a weak cold front approaches, but VFR conditions are expected to prevail.
655 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2020 High pressure will provide a cold night, while increasing southwest flow allows temperatures to warm back to normal levels Saturday.
412 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2020 Seasonably cool and dry high pressure will continue to build into the region tonight through Saturday night.
528 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2020 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: High pressure over the region keeping skies clear tonight, VFR through the TAF pd. then southeasterly tomorrow afternoon as the ridge axis drifts eastward. Tonight and Saturday: Coldest night of the next seven is expected tonight as most sites bottom out below freezing. Mid afternoon surface analysis had a >1030mb ridge across our Delta region, stretching from the Ohio Valley into east Texas. This ridge axis will shift southeast through Saturday evening, resulting in a near calm wind tonight. Temperatures are expected to drop off quickly this evening and result in a couple hours of freezing by morning.
540 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2020 High pressure has shifted off to the east, with southerly winds returning across the region. With the moistening and increasing ascent, patchy freezing drizzle or snow flurries may develop prior to sunrise and persist through midday. Even with the cloud cover, strong WAA will allow for temperatures to increase into the lower to middle 40s by Saturday afternoon.
Expect high temps for Saturday to be close to 20 degrees warmer than today's values with most sites above freezing. Due to the more limited moisture return it is possible that some freezing drizzle/drizzle could occur with limited cloud ice.
Late tomorrow morning, a cold front will begin to move through the area from north to south leading to an abrupt northerly wind shift. This has kept daytime temperatures in the lower 30s across most of the CWA, though temperatures are rising quickly in the Rolling Plains (now in the middle 40s per latest mesonet data). A warm weekend is ahead of us as temperatures rise into the lower to upper 60s across the far southern Texas Panhandle into the South and Rolling Plains, respectively, for Saturday.
312 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2020 In the wake of a long-wave trough, a ridge aloft will build in. Temps will drop into the lower 20s. The ridge will quickly be pushed aside by the next system as it swings into the Plains and return mid/high level southwesterly flow. This will help temps recover into the lower 50s by the afternoon hours. As the trough approaches, we will see an increase in cloud cover heading into Saturday night, keeping overnight lows at bay in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
233 PM MST Fri Feb 14 2020 Through Tonight: A broad lee cyclone in northeast Colorado (this afternoon) will weaken and shift ESE into central Kansas (tonight) as a broad upper trough progresses eastward from the Intermountain West/Rockies into the High Plains. Southerly winds will weaken AOA sunset, becoming light/variable this evening (as the lee cyclone tracks across the Tri-State area). Winds will shift to the NW-NNW at 10-15 mph after midnight -- as the lee cyclone progresses into central Kansas. Overnight lows will be noticeably warmer than previous nights, in the 20s.
424 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2020 Tonight and Saturday: Coldest night of the next seven is expected tonight as most sites bottom out below freezing. Mid afternoon surface analysis had a >1030mb ridge across our Delta region, stretching from the Ohio Valley into east Texas. This ridge axis will shift southeast through Saturday evening, resulting in a near calm wind tonight. Temperatures are expected to drop off quickly this evening and result in a couple hours of freezing by morning.
350 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2020 After another morning with lows around zero, temperatures have struggled to warm up this afternoon, with the snow cover and a band of stratus keeping most places in the low to mid 20s. Warmer 850 mb temperatures and mixing associated with the front will allow temperatures Saturday rise into the 40s.
556 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2020 Widespread VFR conditions are expected through the period as high pressure dominates.
/Issued 1139 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2020/ /Through Saturday Afternoon/ Other than some mid level clouds across the north associated with a passing upper trough, this afternoon will be mostly sunny and cool with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 40s near the Red River to the mid 50s across parts of Central Texas.
Based on these processes, overnight lows should be at least 10 degrees warmer than they were last night.
821 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2020 Winds across the Keys and coastal waters have begun to organize out of the north and pick up a few knots as the diffuse frontal boundary is in the process of bridging in through the area. Dewpoint temperatures have dropped a few degrees, but are still hovering in the low 70s. MOS guidance places the timing of the lower ceilings sometime after daybreak to early afternoon. A weak cold front moving through the area may produce MFVR ceilings from near daybreak tomorrow to early afternoon tomorrow.
5C/km in the lowest 3km of the atmosphere and only 4. Winds are backing with height, and this indicates that a high pressure pressure is also over the area. This high pressure system has ushered in a very dry airmass with precipitable water values a very low 0.
Mountain areas have been sunny as well with seasonal temperatures and some wind gusts over higher ridges. A weak cold front is also forecast to move into northeast Colorado overnight which will bring cooler temperatures back to the forecast area tomorrow.
829 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2020 High pressure remains in control of the weather this evening, promoting a clear sky and light winds. With dewpoints in the upper Teens expected, the mercury should bottom out in the lower 20s in most locations by early Saturday morning. The ridge will quickly be pushed aside by the next system as it swings into the Plains and return mid/high level southwesterly flow. This will help temps recover into the lower 50s by the afternoon hours. As the trough approaches, we will see an increase in cloud cover heading into Saturday night, keeping overnight lows at bay in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Another warm and sunny day across the Central California Interior as a ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the weather. Surface analysis from this morning indicated the position of the thermal trof right along the coast.
The drying trend will continue tonight as ridging at the surface and aloft moves over. Some ridge/valley temperatures differences should be noticed, with the coldest valleys probably near 10 at dawn. The high will be to our east and weak warm air advection will be underway on Saturday. Clouds will increase on Saturday night as a weak wave aloft and a surface cold front approach. Even so, there will be a decent amount of radiating, and with weak warm air advection continuing, ridge/valley temperature differences are likely to again occur.
In the wake of a long-wave trough, a ridge aloft will build in. Temps will drop into the lower 20s. The ridge will quickly be pushed aside by the next system as it swings into the Plains and return mid/high level southwesterly flow. This will help temps recover into the lower 50s by the afternoon hours. As the trough approaches, we will see an increase in cloud cover heading into Saturday night, keeping overnight lows at bay in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
517 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2020 This evening's main impact will be areas of blowing snow in the vicinity of the Buffalo Ridge in southwest MN and adjacent parts of east central SD and northwest IA, where blowing and drifting snow are being reported with visibility as low as a half mile at times. Terrain and elevation influences in this region will keep winds the highest (gusting up to 55 mph) through the evening. Meager moisture content and weak ascent associated with the passing cold front and positively tilted longwave trough aloft shouldn't allow for any measurable precipitation tonight, but may bring some mid level clouds through the region overnight and early Saturday.
A cold night will be in store for the area, with temperatures currently ranging from the lower 20s in the north, to the upper 20s in the south. Will reassess the low temperatures a bit later this evening, but the current forecast looks very reasonable. The drying trend will continue tonight as ridging at the surface and aloft moves over. Some ridge/valley temperatures differences should be noticed, with the coldest valleys probably near 10 at dawn. The high will be to our east and weak warm air advection will be underway on Saturday. Clouds will increase on Saturday night as a weak wave aloft and a surface cold front approach. Even so, there will be a decent amount of radiating, and with weak warm air advection continuing, ridge/valley temperature differences are likely to again occur.
A cold front will move from north to south between 12Z and 18Z which will shift winds to more north and northeasterly at 10-15 kts for the remainder of the TAF period.
Arctic high pressure building into the region tonight with decreasing wind will set the stage for a clear and very cold night with lows ranging from -5F to +5F in the northern tier to the low teens in the south. Hourly temp trend should turn positive before sunrise across the far western zones as southerly gradient flow gradually increases on the backside of departing high pressure.
Otherwise, expect a cooler night (relatively speaking) to near or just above average with mid-upper 40s across the Nature Coast to upper 50s near SWFL.
630 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2020 Seasonably cool and dry high pressure will continue to build into the region tonight through Saturday night.
703 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2020 High pressure moves into the area tonight.
Moisture return at the lower levels focused into the southwestern counties Saturday morning. With clear skies and light winds returning once again, should see low temperatures bottom out in the high 30s to low 40s across most of SE Texas. With winds eventually turning to the southeast by Saturday afternoon, highs should be close to 5 degrees warmer across the region as warm, moist Gulf air re-enters the picture.
348 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2020 High pressure has shifted off to the east, with southerly winds returning across the region. With the moistening and increasing ascent, patchy freezing drizzle or snow flurries may develop prior to sunrise and persist through midday. Even with the cloud cover, strong WAA will allow for temperatures to increase into the lower to middle 40s by Saturday afternoon.
1004 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2020 Cold front has shifted south of the area, but overrunning moisture and weak isentropic lift is continuing to generate a few light showers across east central Florida this evening. Elevated northerly flow, which may remain breezy along portions of the coast, with continue to lower temperatures into tonight, falling into the low to mid 50s from the I-4 corridor northwest through Lake and inland Volusia Counties. Hazardous boating conditions will occur over the coastal waters overnight behind cold front now south of the area.
High pressure will return toward the middle of the week.
/DC/ High pressure ridge axis stretches from New England to the Lower Mississippi River Valley over the country this evening. Prior discussion below: Tonight and Saturday: Coldest night of the next seven is expected tonight as most sites bottom out below freezing. Mid afternoon surface analysis had a >1030mb ridge across our Delta region, stretching from the Ohio Valley into east Texas. This ridge axis will shift southeast through Saturday evening, resulting in a near calm wind tonight. Temperatures are expected to drop off quickly this evening and result in a couple hours of freezing by morning.
927 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2020 Looking at a clr night with temps a bit warmer tonight than last night as high pressure moves into the New England states with southerly flow returning.
Gusty winds developed in the wake of a cold frontal passage this morning. Scattered light snow showers associated with an upper trough will continue in the north through early this evening. The trough will exit this evening, followed by a mostly dry northwest flow aloft tonight. Significant snow accumulations are expected in the higher elevations across the north where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect. The widespread precipitation will diminish from north to south on Sunday as a cold front moves through the region.
355 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2020 Canadian high pressure over the northeastern United States will push eastward tonight into Sunday.
An upper trough continues to move east over the northern Plains while a downstream ridge builds east across the eastern United States. At the surface, high pressure drifts east over the Mid-Atlantic. Temps have stabilized due to warmer air advecting in aloft via SW return flow. Southerly low-level flow will continue to increase during the day with a tightening pressure gradient between a Plains/Upper Midwest cold front and the East Coast high. Afternoon highs are expected to range from the mid 40s north of I-64 to the lower 50s in southern KY. The clouds and south wind will result in a much warmer night with lows generally in the mid 30s. By Sunday morning, a Canadian Low will continue advancing ENE across Hudson Bay with troughing extending southward across the central US.
Saturday will feature early sunshine that will fade behind high clouds as the flow backs to the southwest in response to Plain troughing.
345 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2020 High pressure across the region early this morning will settle to the south of the area this afternoon. A cold front will cross the region Sunday night.
/issued 927 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2020/ Looking at a clr night with temps a bit warmer tonight than last night as high pressure moves into the New England states with southerly flow returning.
High temperatures today will be in the lower to middle 30s.
255 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2020 Increasing pressure gradient ahead of a trough/weak cold front will lead to gusty SE winds up to 30-35 mph today. Highs will range from the upper 40s over the far northern CWA to the low-mid 50s elsewhere.
With high pressure to the east Saturday, and a short wave trof driving a cold front across the Great Lakes at the same time, the pressure gradient between the two will tighten, and this will impact our dry Saturday with some increasingly breezy conditions as the day wears on. As this system makes a dry passage across the lower Ohio Valley Saturday night into Sunday, the gradient relaxes and the upper flow becomes more zonally oriented to finish out the weekend. A weak cold front will move into the area and dissipate Sunday.
306 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2020 High pressure will be in control today, leading to quiet weather and mostly sunny skies. There are widespread readings in the lower single digits to several degrees below zero, with portions of northern Oneida county in the negative teens. High pressure moves east of the area this morning, leading to a southerly return flow. With dry air in the low levels, not expecting much out of this and therefore POPs were kept very low (low-end chance to slight chance). It will be an unsettled period with a shallow upper trough and a cold front passing through. Sunday will generally be dry and somewhat dry with a WSW flow ahead of the cold front.
227 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2020 Transient high pressure today. Strong cold front mid week. Thereafter, temperatures should level off, except may slowly rise on the hilltops and ridges late. Warming trend despite a weak cold front that will present brief shower activity across the region Sunday/Sunday night. Cold front brings next bout of rain, but system expected to be progressive and cold front should push through without lingering like past systems. Significant change of airmass expected behind the front with cold Canadian high pressure spilling into the plains states.
Surface trof is moving into central SD with gusty NW winds continuing around the Black Hills. Winds will increase again as another trof drops southward from MT, while the real cold front is just entering MT.
Guidance has also trended a bit cooler. The dry layers will make ice crystals scarce at times, so both freezing drizzle and flurries are possible.
Slightly warmer temperatures are forecast for Saturday, along with continued dry conditions. Precipitation with this system will remain to the north of the Bay Area, but slightly cooler temperatures are expected on Sunday.
1124 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2020 High pressure has shifted off to the east, with southerly winds returning across the region. With the moistening and increasing ascent, patchy freezing drizzle or snow flurries may develop prior to sunrise and persist through midday. Even with the cloud cover, strong WAA will allow for temperatures to increase into the lower to middle 40s by Saturday afternoon.
High pressure has moved east of the area and this will allow temperatures to warm back into the 30s today. Dry and warmer is the theme for Sunday with highs ranging from middle 30s north to middle 40s south.
1010 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2020 High pressure is now centered over the Ohio Valley and extends south to cover most of the southeast states this evening. Clear skies and light winds have allowed temperatures to drop below freezing across most of the forecast area except around Chattanooga. High pressure will dominate keeping skies mostly clear and with light winds tonight, shifting to more south/southwest Saturday.
There will be a surface reflection in the form of a prefrontal trough, where winds switch from the SW to W. There's even less moisture for this front than the initial prefrontal trough, so it will come through dry, with temepratures across central MN likely just starting to dip below zero come Sunday morning.
High pressure ridge axis stretches from New England to the Lower Mississippi River Valley over the country this evening. Prior discussion below: Tonight and Saturday: Coldest night of the next seven is expected tonight as most sites bottom out below freezing. Mid afternoon surface analysis had a >1030mb ridge across our Delta region, stretching from the Ohio Valley into east Texas. This ridge axis will shift southeast through Saturday evening, resulting in a near calm wind tonight. Temperatures are expected to drop off quickly this evening and result in a couple hours of freezing by morning.
324 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2020 Seasonably cool and dry high pressure will continue to build into the region today. Dry high pressure ridging into the forecast area (FA) from the north will direct drier air into the region today. A coastal trough will develop offshore tonight in response to some approaching upper energy. Increasing onshore low level flow Sunday as a result of the high pressure moving off the coast will increase moisture, especially in the eastern forecast area.
Between 12Z-18Z, cold front will move through from north to south which will shift winds to north and northeast behind front at 10-15 kts throughout the remainder of the TAF with mostly clear skies.
Under mostly clear skies, temperatures forecast to fall to near or slightly below freezing areawide. /Tonight through Saturday Night/ Dominant high pressure just to our NE will continue to provide for cool and tranquil weather through tonight. Despite the cold start to the day on Saturday, temperatures will recover nicely with afternoon highs reaching the upper 50s to lower and mid 60s with southerly winds returning on the backside of the eastward advancing high pressure. With the increasing cloud cover and southerly flow, overnight lows will run some 15 degrees warmer compared to tonight's readings with temperatures ranging through the 40s areawide.
Late tomorrow morning, a cold front will begin to move through the area from north to south leading to an abrupt northerly wind shift with some breezy northerly winds for the afternoon. With the cooler temperatures, some patchy fog will be possible yet again for locations on the Caprock late tonight and into Saturday morning. This has kept daytime temperatures in the lower 30s across most of the CWA, though temperatures are rising quickly in the Rolling Plains (now in the middle 40s per latest mesonet data). A warm weekend is ahead of us as temperatures rise into the lower to upper 60s across the far southern Texas Panhandle into the South and Rolling Plains, respectively, for Saturday. Even warmer and dry weather is expected on Sunday due to breezy downslope winds from the west.
At this time, mid level clouds will begin to stream in from the north in response to a weak cold front.
1239 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2020 Seasonably cool and dry high pressure will continue to build into the region today. Dry high pressure ridging into the forecast area (FA) from the north will direct drier air into the region today. A coastal trough will develop offshore tonight in response to some approaching upper energy. The development of a coastal trough combined with weak disturbances in the upper flow will bring a chance of rain Sunday afternoon and evening.
The Evening Update: Plethora of high cloudiness will be spilling over the Ern Pac ridge thru Sat. HREF probability of CIG/VSBY suggests some stratus and fog will be possible in the Srn Sac Vly and Nrn SJV Sat morning before the high clouds thicken substantially to prevent strong radiational cooling and fog. Weak front forecast to move into the Nrn zones on Sun with some light precip, and cooler temps. Similar weather will be seen both today and tomorrow as upper ridging builds back over California. Another system skims the area late Saturday night into Sunday, although the main impact with this may only be cloudy skies and slightly cooler temperatures on Sunday.
Upper level trough is east of the area over the Atlantic this morning with nearly zonal to WSW flow aloft through the near term. High pressure will dominate at the surface with the center of the high across the mid-Atlantic today sliding eastward over the Atlantic. Cloud coverage will increase late tonight with the easterly surface flow which will result in warmer low temperatures (40s) as compared to this morning.
310 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2020 The recent cold front is now stalled over southern Florida, with over running moisture leading to low status covering the central and southern portions of the forecast area. These clouds will mostly clear out from north to south through the morning and early afternoon as high pressure settles in north of Florida.