Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
300 AM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021 A clear and cool night is taking shape across the TN Valley as high pressure settles into the region. Temps will likely fall a couple more degrees this morning, with lows expected in the lower to mid 40s. Upper ridging will build eastward today, with northwesterly flow persisting aloft and at the surface. An upper ridge currently over the Plains will slide eastward through the short term period.
1155 PM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021 Composite trough axis with coldest air aloft, 0C at 850mb, is directly over Southeast Michigan. Cooler airmass settling over the region has kicked the lake-effect machine into gear this afternoon. Upper level ridging over the central US begins to advance into lower MI Monday however its eastward progression will be slowed by the upper trough over the Northeast/Canadian Maritimes keeping SE MI on the periphery of said ridge through the daytime hours. As a result highs Monday will be similar to Sunday in the low 60s.
227 AM MDT Sun Oct 17 2021 Upper ridge axis is crossing the Rockies, allowing for clear skies over much of the CONUS. The trough to affect our region in a few days is just offshore. Meanwhile, upper trough will develop a closed low Sunday as it moves ashore, and will approach the northern plains early this week.
242 AM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021 06Z data has high pressure from the lower Mississippi Valley into the upper Midwest. Quiet and dry conditions will be seen today with warmer temperatures.
314 AM EDT Sun Oct 17 2021 High pressure continues to build into the area, offering a taste of autumn as much cooler and drier air settles in through early this week.
It will be mild on Sunday with highs in the lower and middle 70s.
Sky grids continue at 0% through Sunday beneath the transitory ridge axis, with some wisps of cirrus expected to arrive Sunday night and Monday. Cirrus will increase Monday as southwest midlevel flow strengthens ahead of a closed midlevel cyclone progged to be near Salt Lake City 7 pm Monday.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): High pressure at the surface and aloft will provide fair weather and mild temperatures today and Monday. Overnight lows although still below average will be 2 to 4 degrees warmer(mid 50s to lower/mid 60s)and Monday's highs will approach normal or mid to upper 80s.
Highs today will also be much cooler with low to mid 70s expected.
Dry conditions continue through the period as a dome of cool and dry high pressure builds into the region. Lows tonight range from the mid 40s well inland to the lower 50s at the coast, and similar overnight lows are expected for Sunday night.
156 AM MDT Sun Oct 17 2021 Clear skies and upper ridging will start off the week, with downslope warming allow highs to again reach into the low 70s, and less snow cover over far SE MT will allow them to finally climb back into the 60s. Still high confidence in a cutoff upper low swinging across southern Wyoming and bringing some dynamics and moisture to the area.
High pressure and clear skies will continue over the area.
255 AM MDT Sun Oct 17 2021 Upper ridging will maintain warm and dry weather across the region for today. On Monday, a cold front will approach late in the day with a wind switch to the north.
324 AM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021 We'll have rising heights until Monday afternoon, when the upper ridge axis currently over Montana will be centered over MN. At the surface, we'll see winds today switch around from the west to the south, with breezy conditions showing up again Monday as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure centered over the central Appalachians and a front moving across the Dakotas.
High clouds will overspread much of the area Sunday keeping daytime highs in the low to mid 70s.
Temps will warm back into the low-mid 70s areawide thanks to slightly warmer 850mb temps compared to yesterday with ridging still nestled over the Lone Star state. Another large PAC trough will be traversing into the west coast which will shift the pattern to more SW flow aloft and warming thermal profile as lows/highs will be up to 10 degrees warmer on Monday AM/PM compared to the last few days.
a large upper level ridge axis moves over the area while at the surface a weak pressure gradient exists with southwest winds of 5 to 12 mph. the upper ridge axis remains over the area during the day then east of the area during the night as an upper level low and its associated trough move into northwest Nevada. High temperatures warm up into the low to mid 70s. the upper level low is expected to move east into northern Utah during the day then into south central Wyoming overnight.
This should permit the formation of frost and even a few sub freezing temperatures in central and Northern Wisconsin.
The trajectory of the low is likely to take more of a southward trajectory before reaching the Inland Northwest, giving our area very limited chances of precipitation this time around. A cold front will bring some light showers to the Cascades Sunday and to portions of southeast Washington and the southern Idaho Panhandle Sunday night into Monday. A cold front will bring some light showers to the Cascades Sunday and to portions of southeast Washington and the southern Idaho Panhandle Sunday night into Monday. A trough across the Pacific NW will push southward into the northern Great Basin early in the week.
A weak pressure gradient is in place in the lower levels. Clear skies, dry air, and light winds tonight will allow for strong radiational cooling in the high mountain valleys and low lying areas. Light downslope warming will continue to keep the lower foothills and adjacent plains a few degrees warmer. The warming trend will continue under persistently clear skies Sunday as the ridge axis moves over Colorado. Expect highs Sunday afternoon several degrees above normal, in the mid 70s across the plains and 50s to lower 60s in the high country. The next trough should be coming on shore to the west by Sunday evening, and we might start to see a few high clouds coming in ahead of it.
The northwest flow aloft will become more zonal by the end of the day today as an upper level trough begins to make its way westward over the northern Plains, progressing toward the Great Lakes by Monday evening.
Lows will drop into the upper 30s to the lower 40s across the area this morning, a few middle 30s will be possible in protected areas across the eastern Ozarks. Highs today will warm into the upper 60s to the lower 70s under sunny skies. Lows tonight into early Monday morning will drop into the lower to middle 40s. An upper level ridge will move over the region early this week.
303 AM EDT Sun Oct 17 2021 Scattered showers are expected today mainly north of Pittsburgh with a trough of low pressure. Otherwise, dry weather is expected through mid week under building high pressure. Areas of stratocu are expected to persist across the region today in cool NW flow aloft, and under broad upper troughing. Scattered showers are also expected, mainly N of PIT, with the crossing trough and some lake enhancement in WNW boundary layer flow. Scattered showers N of PIT should gradually diminish tonight as the trough shifts east and subsidence inversion levels lower.
257 AM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021 Today through Tonight, An upper level ridge across the central Rockies early this morning will move east across Plains. An amplified upper level trough will move onshore across northern CA and OR. As the H5 ridge axis shifts east across the state of KS, along with weak southerly winds, will help afternoon highs to reach into the lower to mid 70s. Monday through Monday night, the upper trough over the western US will move east into the central Rockies Monday night.
(Today and tonight) Slightly warmer today with a return to a more southerly component in the lower level flow, but warm up will be minimized by increase in cirrus across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas.
As the high shifts farther east with time, temps will warm slightly as we head into the new work week.
Current water vapor analysis depicts a mid to upper level ridge centered over the Rocky Mountains. Downstream a trough is extending south from the Hudson Bay Area down into the Ohio River Valley. The ridge is continuing to build over the FA bringing warmer temperature with no chance for rain. Today, expect temperatures near normal in the lower 70s. A bit more cloud cover in the southeast TX Panhandle may possibly limit the daytime highs there in the lower to mid 70s.
High pressure is in control, and winds will become light through the overnight hours.
Clear skies along with a much cooler and drier night continues across Middle Tennessee. High pressure continues to build into Middle Tennessee from the west, keeping a dry, cool air mass in place across the region.
Looking at daytime temps to top off in the low to mid 60s. Overnight temps are progged to fall into the 40s with cooler temps in the upper 30s inland. Again patchy frost will be possible, especially for low-lying areas, but not expecting widespread coverage given the slighter warmer temps.
As the ridge moves south, warm advection will return to the region today and especially on Monday, with weak downslope conditions today with better downslope flow on Monday. Models are coming in a little faster with this system than previous runs, which will limit the amount of moisture return available ahead of the cold front for shower and storm chances. Ketcham Medium range models suggest that weak ridging will move in for Wed into Thu, with cold advection behind the front leading to cooler, below normal temperatures for Wed through at least Fri. Ridge aloft will build over the area on Sunday with weak to modest southerly low level/surface flow under generally clear skies.
1134 PM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021 Weak ridging is starting to build into the region this afternoon which will shut of the CAA that has been ruling the region.
Warmer daytime temperatures are expected again Sunday. Gusty southwest winds and cooler weather arrive Monday, with another warming trend then developing later in the week. Mild overnight temperatures will give way to another nice day of warmer temperatures on Sunday as a ridge shifts eastward out of the state. Winds will increase further on Monday, especially north of Interstate 40 and west of Interstate 17, from a passing low pressure center. The passing low pressure will be a dry system for northern Arizona.
838 PM PDT Sat Oct 16 2021 Latest satellite imagery showed high cloudiness and not much else as a ridge remains over the Pacific Northwest. The ridge will advance eastward tonight into Sunday as a trough moves toward the Washington and Oregon coasts. This trough will move on shore later Sunday.
Other than a few passing high clouds across southern Oklahoma this afternoon expect plenty of sunshine for your Sunday with afternoon temperatures ending up a few degrees warmer than yesterday and just slightly above normal for this time of year.
243 AM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021 At 2 AM, a 1026 mb high pressure area centered over the Southern Plains was producing clear skies across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. High pressure will provide clear skies for both today and tonight.
Temperatures will trend slightly warmer for the next several days.
An upper level ridge is building in this weekend, ushering in warmer temperatures than what we have had the last several days.
259 AM EDT Sun Oct 17 2021 High pressure will prevail across the region most of this week. A cold front is forecasted to move through towards the end of the week. Today: Cooler and drier conditions will prevail today as a modified cP airmass settles into the region. Modest downslope trajectories off the southern Appalachians will help offset the impacts of cooling temperatures aloft and highs are expected to rebound back into the lower-mid 70s under full insolation. Tonight: High pressure will settle over the southern Appalachians tonight with the tightest pressure gradient progged to remain well offshore and to the south. Mid-level troughing will be just off the East Coast Monday morning. It'll get pushed offshore by a ridge approaching from the west.
316 AM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021 315 AM CDT Pleasant, breezy, and slightly warmer conditions to close out the weekend. A dome of high pressure has moved over the area which will keep our skies cloud-free through the rest of the weekend and throughout the day on Monday. These clear skies coupled with warmer temperatures aloft will promote slightly warmer temperatures at the surface with this afternoon's highs topping out in the mid-60s and tonight's lows in the low to mid-40s.
634 AM EDT Sun Oct 17 2021 High pressure continues to build into the area, offering a taste of autumn as much cooler and drier air settles in through early this week.
632 AM EDT Sun Oct 17 2021 [Through 12Z Monday] With the cold front now through the region, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Highs today will also be much cooler with low to mid 70s expected.
654 AM EDT Sun Oct 17 2021 Scattered showers are expected today, mainly north of Pittsburgh, with a trough of low pressure. Otherwise, dry weather is expected through mid week under building high pressure. Areas of stratocu are expected to persist across the region today in cool NW flow aloft, and under broad upper troughing. Scattered showers are also expected, mainly N of PIT, with the crossing trough and some lake enhancement in WNW boundary layer flow. Scattered showers N of PIT should gradually diminish tonight as the trough shifts east and subsidence inversion levels lower.
Winds will remain light to calm out of the northeast and with the decreasing clouds, should lead to another efficient radiational cooling night, with lows in the lower 50s inland to the lower 60s near the coast.
708 AM EDT Sun Oct 17 2021 High pressure will prevail across the region most of this week. A cold front is forecasted to move through towards the end of the week. Today: Cooler and drier conditions will prevail today as a modified cP airmass settles into the region. Modest downslope trajectories off the southern Appalachians will help offset the impacts of cooling temperatures aloft and highs are expected to rebound back into the lower-mid 70s under full insolation. Tonight: High pressure will settle over the southern Appalachians tonight with the tightest pressure gradient progged to remain well offshore and to the south. Mid-level troughing will be just off the East Coast Monday morning. It'll get pushed offshore by a ridge approaching from the west.
An upper level trough digging into the west coast will spread mid and high clouds over NM today and tonight.
1025 AM EDT Sun Oct 17 2021 High pressure continues to build into the area, offering a taste of autumn as much cooler and drier air settles in through early this week.
/issued 335 AM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): High pressure at the surface and aloft will provide fair weather and mild temperatures today and Monday. Overnight lows although still below average will be 2 to 4 degrees warmer(mid 50s to lower/mid 60s)and Monday's highs will approach normal or mid to upper 80s.
500 AM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021 At 2 AM, a 1026 mb high pressure area centered over the Southern Plains was producing clear skies across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. High pressure will provide clear skies for both today and tonight.
306 AM MDT Sun Oct 17 2021 Upper ridge axis is crossing the Rockies, allowing for clear skies over much of the CONUS. The trough to affect our region in a few days is just offshore. Meanwhile, upper trough will develop a closed low Sunday as it moves ashore, and will approach the northern plains early this week.
Dry high pressure remains in place, with warming temperatures. The 500mb ridge will slide directly overhead tonight.
We'll see cooler temperatures and some locally breezy conditions to start the work week as a system brushes by to our north. High pressure will bring a strong warming trend the second half of the week, with continued dry conditions. A significant weakness in the flow is splitting into the large scale mean ridge position, and will brush by our area well north of us.
604 AM EDT Sun Oct 17 2021 High pressure will prevail across the region most of this week. A cold front is forecasted to move through towards the end of the week. Today: Cooler and drier conditions will prevail today as a modified cP airmass settles into the region. Modest downslope trajectories off the southern Appalachians will help offset the impacts of cooling temperatures aloft and highs are expected to rebound back into the lower-mid 70s under full insolation. Tonight: High pressure will settle over the southern Appalachians tonight with the tightest pressure gradient progged to remain well offshore and to the south. Mid-level troughing will be just off the East Coast Monday morning. It'll get pushed offshore by a ridge approaching from the west.
As the ridge moves south, warm advection will return to the region today and especially on Monday, with weak downslope conditions today with better downslope flow on Monday. Models are coming in a little faster with this system than previous runs, which will limit the amount of moisture return available ahead of the cold front for shower and storm chances. Ketcham Medium range models suggest that weak ridging will move in for Wed into Thu, with cold advection behind the front leading to cooler, below normal temperatures for Wed through at least Fri.
With a strong dome of high pressure out of the mid/srn Plains states building into the region, the tranquil wx pattern will certainly continue thru the afternoon hrs, as highs climb mainly into the mid to upper 60s for most spots. An upper ridge currently over the Plains will slide eastward through the short term period.
623 AM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021 (Today and tonight) Slightly warmer today with a return to a more southerly component in the lower level flow, but warm up will be minimized by increase in cirrus across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas.
After a rather chilly start in the low to mid 40s, temperatures were warming nicely under sunny skies and a light wind. Temperatures were on track to top out a few degrees cooler than normal this afternoon; in the lower 70s. Temperatures will rebound this afternoon into the low 70s following a chilly start to the day this morning. Decent cooling will still be realized with lows in the low to upper 40s, but increasing cloud cover will hamper additional cooling.
532 AM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021 An upper level trough was shifting east of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions early this morning, with an upper level ridge over the Rockies. Warmer high temperatures are expected on Monday with the upper level ridge right over MO by this time, along with south-southwest surface winds, and continued full diurnal solar insolation.
A clear and cool night is taking shape across the TN Valley as high pressure settles into the region. Temps will likely fall a couple more degrees this morning, with lows expected in the lower to mid 40s. Upper ridging will build eastward today, with northwesterly flow persisting aloft and at the surface. An upper ridge currently over the Plains will slide eastward through the short term period.
904 AM EDT Sun Oct 17 2021 A few showers in place across the southern coastal waters this morning along and ahead of the cold front and some low clouds lingering just behind it over land. The cooler and drier air will continue to settle into the area through the day as high pressure builds from the north. A few showers will continue along and ahead of the cold front, which is just starting to push into the southern waters this morning. The front will continue to push south through the area through the rest of the morning, with high pressure building into the waters behind it.
We'll continue our warming trend as the upper level ridge passes overhead, with all models showing about 4C of warming through 700 mb. That should push high temperatures about 7F warmer than yesterday, yielding highs in the mid to upper 70s across the plains and I-25 Corridor, 60s to lower 70s in the foothills, and 50s to mid 60s for the mountains. For tonight, the upper level ridge will shift east allowing a deeper southwest flow aloft to develop.
646 AM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021 We'll have rising heights until Monday afternoon, when the upper ridge axis currently over Montana will be centered over MN. At the surface, we'll see winds today switch around from the west to the south, with breezy conditions showing up again Monday as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure centered over the central Appalachians and a front moving across the Dakotas.
433 AM PDT Sun Oct 17 2021 Dry and seasonably mild conditions will continue today before a cold front moves through the area this evening into Monday, bringing light rain and mountain snow to much of the area.
Gusty southwest winds and cooler temperatures arrive Monday, with another warming trend then developing later next the week. There are things the fall brings, shorter days and cooler temperatures, changing colors, falling leaves. A hint of what is to come arrives this afternoon, with southwest breezes strengthening over the higher terrain. Then, a deep upper low dives over the Sierra Crest tonight.
Current forecast is in excellent shape as a broad area of high pressure remains the primary influence on weather over the Ohio Valley today.
High pressure is in control, and northerly winds will shift to northeast and pick up in speed after 17/18Z, with max speeds around 5 kts and gusts not exceeding 10 kts. The northwest flow aloft will become more zonal by the end of the day today as an upper level trough begins to make its way westward over the northern Plains, progressing toward the Great Lakes by Monday evening.
A large surface anticyclone resides over the south central CONUS this morning. Highs yesterday were just a tad warmer than blended guidance (NBM), so for the update went with a blend of NBM probabilistic 50th and 75th %ile forecast, and close to EC MOS. Other than a few passing high clouds across southern Oklahoma this afternoon expect plenty of sunshine for your Sunday with afternoon temperatures ending up a few degrees warmer than yesterday and just slightly above normal for this time of year.
645 AM EDT Sun Oct 17 2021 High pressure will build slowly east into the area through mid week. Meanwhile aloft, the upper trough over the Eastern US will move offshore during the afternoon with strong synoptic scale subsidence overspreading the area this evening and tonight. However, pattern recognition suggests that a favorable upstream flow and moisture pattern into the area could result in the development of some orographic cirrus in the lee of the southern/central Appalachians that could impede the outgoing radiation, resulting in warmer min temps, especially across the northern Piedmont. Lows tonight in the lower to mid 40s, which for most locations, will mark the first 40 degree temp reading since May. Min temps again in the lower to mid 40s, with some upper 30s in the colder outlying/rural areas.
Otherwise, dry weather is expected through mid week under building high pressure. Lake enhanced showers are expected to pass through the region today, mainly N of PIT, with a crossing trough. Scattered showers N of PIT should gradually diminish tonight as the trough shifts east and subsidence inversion levels lower.
Weather maker for the forecast period is the trough approaching the Pac NW coast. Trough will continue to dig down the west coast today with an upper low closing off over northwest Nevada late tonight. Winds will be on the decrease Monday night as the upper low progresses east into the central Rockies.
631 AM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021 315 AM CDT Pleasant, breezy, and slightly warmer conditions to close out the weekend. A dome of high pressure has moved over the area which will keep our skies cloud-free through the rest of the weekend and throughout the day on Monday. These clear skies coupled with warmer temperatures aloft will promote slightly warmer temperatures at the surface with this afternoon's highs topping out in the mid-60s and tonight's lows in the low to mid-40s.