Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 331 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020/ Secondary cold front surge is moving south through the forecast area early this morning which has kicked off another round of showers and thunderstorms along it primarily across the western South Plains. This frontal boundary is also ushering in cooler air compared to yesterday. Convection should develop on the higher terrain of New Mexico and Colorado this afternoon and then drop to the south and east through the evening. /WCI A high amplitude upper level ridge axis will cover the intermountain west through the weekend, with the Texas South Plains region in moderate north to northwest flow aloft.
634 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020 A somewhat cooler northeast flow will continue over the area today with showers and storms staying south closer to the Ohio River. Rain chances will be increasing this weekend as a low pressure area approaches.
The pre-frontal trough resides just northwest of the CWA currently, but is expected to gradually push into the Devils Lake Basin over the next several hours. Following this boundary, will be the main cold front, expected to traverse the region this afternoon through Saturday morning. Thunderstorm activity in southwest Manitoba is slowly working southeastward ahead of a cold front that will push through the region later today. Ahead of the front, temperatures will climb well into the 80s this afternoon, with cooler air working into our northeastern counties by mid-afternoon. The 500mb pattern starts out with a ridge over the Rockies and fairly sharp northerly flow over the FA.
The better defined wind shift indicative of the weak cold front (in name only) expected to push through the area later today is still northwest of Dallas. The first half of the new week will be dominated by a broad longwave trof extending across the eastern half of the U.
Forecast highlights in the short term period will be chances for thunderstorms this afternoon/evening along with one more day of warm temperatures before cooler weather arrives this weekend. Currently, weak north/northwest flow aloft across the Northern Plains with a high amplitude ridge building into the Rockies to our west and a long wave trough to our east. A few of the high res models bring some precip activity into my far northeast early this morning, associated with an embedded wave. Frontal boundary/cold front will push southeast across western and central ND today, shifting winds to the north/northwest and bringing in cooler temperatures north where highs will fall into the mid 70s to lower 80s. Shower/thunder chances end overnight tonight as the front pushes to our south and east, with the sky trending clear as high pressure builds into the region.
High pressure will track closer to the region today through Saturday, bringing pleasant weather for the first half of the weekend. Tonight, with increased ridging, clouds will clear out by around midnight. After midnight, clouds will slowly increase from southwest to northeast, well in advance of the next area of low pressure approaching from the Ohio Valley.
As we transition into August, noticeably dry airmass persists with strong upper high centered over the region.
Am expecting most of the activity to occur over and near the mountains with a few storms moving over the lower elevations.
534 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020 Periodic rain chances are expected through the weekend with multiple passing low pressure systems. This will setup a situation were temperatures north of the Mason Dixon line and west of the ridges will experience warmer temperatures due to the increase in sunshine. Another area of low pressure, originating in the Plains, will undergo cyclogenesis as it traverses through the flow toward the Ohio Valley. Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to remain through mid week as another longwave trough digs south of the Great Lakes. Restrictions are likely Sat and Sat night with crossing low pressure. Restriction potential returns late Sun through Tue under a persistent upper trough.
/issued 456 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020/ Early morning GOES water vapor imagery showed a closed upper low centered over southwest MO. This feature will lift slightly east today, gradually opening up and consolidating with a longwave trof over the middle and lower MS River valley. Convection will continue today in the warm sector ahead of the longwave trof axis. Additional wrap around showers will likely follow just ahead of the 500mb trof axis on Saturday, with some early daytime storms possible near the TN River.
346 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2020 As models had indicated over the past several days, the atmosphere has become progressively drier as high pressure has anchored over the Southwest.
535 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2020 A low pressure system centered over northern Manitoba will swing an upper trough across the northern plains, with weak cool front sliding southward across the forecast area today and tonight. On Saturday, high pressure will dip southward into the central Dakotas/Nebraska.
408 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020 (Today and Tonight) A cold front is currently moving through the Big Country. Highs today will be a little cooler overall, with highs from the low 90s north of I-20 to near 100 degrees far south.
Early morning temperatures are generally running 2 to 5 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. Dry and seasonably hot conditions will continue today into the weekend as ridging over the Desert Southwest extends into NorCal. Saturday highs will nudge a few degrees warmer compared to today.
313 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2020 A low pressure system centered over northern Manitoba will swing an upper trough across the northern plains, with weak cool front sliding southward across the forecast area today and tonight. On Saturday, high pressure will dip southward into the central Dakotas/Nebraska.
803 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020 Periodic rain chances are expected through the weekend with multiple passing low pressure systems. This will setup a situation were temperatures north of the Mason Dixon line and west of the ridges will experience warmer temperatures due to the increase in sunshine. Another area of low pressure, originating in the Plains, will undergo cyclogenesis as it traverses through the flow toward the Ohio Valley. Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to remain through mid week as another longwave trough digs south of the Great Lakes. Restrictions are likely Sat and Sat night with crossing low pressure. Restriction potential returns late Sun through Tue under a persistent upper trough.
The low-level ridge axis remains situated across the central FL peninsula during the day with light southerly winds transitioning to ESE/SE with development and inland push of the sea breeze. The ridge axis is forecast to lift north tonight as Hurricane Isaias approaches from the SE. High pressure ridge axis across the local coastal waters and central FL.
Strong high pressure aloft through the weekend will provide very hot daytime temperatures, with record or near record highs through Saturday. The main message will be the hot temperatures through at least Saturday as a strong ridge of high pressure aloft remains centered over the region.
Current observations show temperatures 5 to 10 degrees cooler than this time yesterday with temperatures mostly in the low/mid 80's with upper 80's observed near Hollis (SW OK) and Vernon (TX). Tonight will be unusually pleasant for the end of July, with much of the fa dropping down into the low to mid 60's. As high pressure continues to move in behind the trough, winds will become light with mostly sunny skies tomorrow and highs in the mid to upper 80s.
An upper trough will approach the area into the weekend for onshore flow and cooler temperatures.
We still appear to be on track for highs temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Winds will decrease Saturday night as high pressure starts to nudge in from the north.
146 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020 The modeling really soups up ahead of the Low pressure/trof moving into scntl MO. as the Low moves in and the boundary remains ever present for the focus.
As this upper level trough slowly pivots through the region this evening, ongoing showers and thunderstorms will continue to slowly sag southward and eventually settle over the southeastern sections of the forecast area this evening.
As high pressure exits to the southeast this morning, low pressure will set up a boundary from northeast to southwest and push through the region this afternoon through Saturday morning. Cooler and drier air will drop in behind this front as high pressure builds down from Canada on Saturday. The cooler air behind the boundary may allow for some small hail or gusty winds, though. Much cooler highs are anticipated for Saturday as northerly breezes kick in. Initially the area will see dry conditions with below average temperatures for the first few days of August with high pressure anchored across central Canada extending southwards into the northern plains, and an upper low over the eastern CONUS.
Deese The main feature in our weather pattern going forward will be a broad upper-level trough expanding into the eastern U. Meanwhile, Georgia will remain entrenched in a tropical airmass, and given occasional lobes of vorticity rounding the trough, each day will bring mainly diurnal showers and storms.
This along with a building ridge in the Desert Southwest leaves us in a northerly flow regime, which is progged to persist for the next several days. Temperatures during this period fall to the low 60s overnight and reach the low to mid 80s Saturday.
ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 89 70 87 68 / 50 70 30 40 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 90 70 86 68 / 60 50 50 50 30 Oak Ridge, TN 71 88 70 85 67 / 60 60 40 40 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 88 68 84 66 / 60 60 20 60 50.
Slow moving upper trough to the west will only make slow progress towards the area on Saturday, with an associated front/trough moving into NW Alabama and Mississippi.
/Tonight through Saturday/ High pressure, scattered cloud cover and the advection of cooler temperatures from the north remain the main story for today. Precipitation returns to the forecast on Saturday afternoon with an incoming cold front from the northwest.
On the surface, weak cold front has moved through western SD with wind gusts to 20-30kt and lowering dewpoints.
Satellite imagery and 500mb RAP analysis showed a departing trough east of the region, extending from southwest Missouri to northern Texas. Behind the disturbance, ridging amplified along the Intermountain West, placing the High Plains under north to northwest flow. The trough deepens along the Mississippi River today as the ridge prevails across the western half of the country. Northwest flow continues on Saturday as the upper trough and ridge remain nearly stationary. A cold front approaches the region as a disturbance pushes through the flow, generating chances for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon through the evening hours.
Low temps will be cooler than recent nights with patchy fog developing into AM Sat in the northern valleys. Clouds and moisture will increase ahead of a warm front lifting into SW PA to start the first weekend in August.
Once convection diminished over the southern James River Valley this evening, the remainder of the night, and Saturday looks to be dry, and cooler.
High pressure extends from south central Colorado to northwestern Wyoming this afternoon. a cold front lays across central Montana on a west to east line.
230 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2020 Hot and mostly dry weather continues through the weekend as a ridge remains overhead.
149 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020 Afternoon water vapor imagery detects a well-defined upper cyclone across southwest MO, with our forecast area under deep-layered cyclonic flow. Cooler/drier airmass will keep temperatures a good 5-10 degrees below seasonal norms through the weekend.
A few stray showers will be possible later this afternoon across northwest Missouri associated with some wrap around moisture on the back side of the low. High temperatures today are expected to top out in the upper 70s to low 80s, with a few cooler locations where cloud cover persists.
The high amplitude pattern remains over the U. through the weekend with the ridge of higher pressure extending from the high center over the southwest U.
305 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020 Low pressure will pass south of central Illinois over the weekend bringing cloud cover and spotty showers to central Illinois through Saturday.
A cold front extends from southwest Missouri across western Arkansas and into northeast Texas. Thunderstorms have developed ahead of the cold front across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. The cold front will move east across the Mississippi River this evening with more thunderstorms expected to move through the region tonight. Temperatures will be a little cooler than the last few days with lows Saturday morning in the lower 70s. The cold front will continue moving slowly east on Saturday and will finally move out of the Mid-South by late afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler on Saturday with the clouds and front with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
Another good radiational cooling night, allowing temperatures to drop into the lower and middle 50s away from the coastal areas. Combination of a modifying airmass and at least partly sunny skies should help temperatures warm a few degrees from what has been experienced the last few days, with afternoon readings mostly in the lower and middle 80s. Models indicate that a fairly convoluted pattern develops across the Great Lakes during this time period with low pressure passing by to our southeast (with a trend over the last few model runs of farther northwest) while a cold front eases down from our northwest.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): 500mb trough across the east-central United States will bring a weak cold front into south Texas tonight.
314 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020 Main weather concern tonight into Saturday night is the passage of a cold front which will also bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
H500 upper level low pressure continues to slowly move east/southeast and away from the forecast.
243 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020 A line of storms along a pre-frontal trough axis was pushing through Northeast Alabama early this afternoon. As the trough aloft becomes more neutrally tilted and pushes into the Deep South tomorrow, a final round of showers and thunderstorms is possible in the afternoon. The 500 mb trough will then settle over the Mississippi Valley, placing the TN Valley in southwest flow aloft.
An upper-level trough digs from the central Plains southeastward into the lower MS River Valley through the near term, with southwesterly deep-layer flow downstream from this feature overspreading the local area. At the surface, low pressure deepens over the middle MS River Valley and begins to lift northeast towards the Ohio Valley. This return in moisture, in combination with moderate instability (MLCAPE ~2000 J/kg) and improving deep-layer ascent from the encroaching upper trough, should be enough to support isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon. Low temperatures tonight remain in the low to mid 70s inland and upper 70s along the immediate coast.
/issued 554 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020/ /12Z TAFS/ Low clouds are starting to develop along and behind a cold front moving south through the area, as well as along the I-10 corridor. /issued 408 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020/ (Today and Tonight) A cold front is currently moving through the Big Country. Highs today will be a little cooler overall, with highs from the low 90s north of I-20 to near 100 degrees far south.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 89 70 87 68 / 50 70 30 40 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 90 70 86 68 / 60 50 50 50 30 Oak Ridge, TN 71 88 70 85 67 / 60 60 40 40 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 88 68 84 66 / 60 60 20 60 50.
247 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2020 Thunderstorms associated with a weak wave moving down the east side of a building ridge have generally pushed east of the area. In general, given the higher bases of anything that forms, winds will be the main hazard, but there could be some hail. Going into Saturday this will start to dry out as the ridge dominates the weather over the Northern Rockies. There will be some moisture under the ridge, so could see some isolated showers and thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, but this will mostly be over the high country.
132 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020 The upper level flow regime is just west of northerly across the region this afternoon with a high centered over AZ and a trough moving into the Midwestern states. The upper-level ridge will continue to amplify over the weekend, in response to an upper-level trough shifting eastward and a vigorous low pivoting into the Pacific Northwest. The ridge axis is forecast to extend poleward through the Intermountain West and into southern Alberta, with northwest-to-northerly mid- and upper-level flow overspreading the forecast area.
High pressure moves overhead tonight provide mostly clear skies and light winds through a very deep layer,from the surface through nearly 25 kft.
Temperatures will recover a little by Saturday ahead of a cold front, with highs in the upper 80s.
Therefore, it will probably take until mid afternoon for activity to get going from max daytime heating and approach of a trough/dryline. The better defined wind shift indicative of the weak cold front (in name only) expected to push through the area later today is still northwest of Dallas. The first half of the new week will be dominated by a broad longwave trof extending across the eastern half of the U.
303 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020 A surface and upper level low pressure system continue to spin over Missouri producing bery heavy rain and some flooding across the lower Midwest. Overnight temps will be a degree or too cooler overnight compared to this morning.
Behind the front winds will turn to the north with cooler and drier air filtering into the region as canadian high pressure settles southward.
1143 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2020 Overnight WV/IR satellite imagery showed a upper trough situated over the Lower MO/Middle MS Valleys, and a upper ridge axis from the Desert Southwest to the Northern Rockies. The short term will be influenced by a upper ridge parked over the Intermountain West.
The subtropical ridge does start to build e Tue and high temps will quickly climb into the 100-105 range across much of the area for several days.
Another low and cold front approach over the weekend.
351 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020 A short wave is moving out of the Plains and int the Mid- Mississippi Valley with the trough axis trailing down into central Texas.
A high amplitude ridge of high pressure is firmly planted over the mountain states today, with the ridge axis over the Northern Rockies. As advertised, this ridge will keep temperatures about 10 degrees or more above average. Ridgetop gusts this morning have reached 30 mph in the Rattlesnake Wilderness. The atmosphere will gain some moisture later today as the ridge axis moves east and upper level flow begins to shift back to the southwest. However, the dry nature of the lower atmosphere will be conducive to strong outflow winds, so any storm that does form will be capable of producing gusty, erratic winds.
Cut-off low pressure over Missouri should get nudged slowly east- northeast tonight and Saturday by an approaching upstream short wave trof, moving southeast from southern Canada. Onshore winds will likely continue on Saturday keeping areas closer to Lake Michigan a bit cooler than inland areas. Lakeshore soundings continue to look too dry for any -shra to develop despite the delta-T around 9-10 degrees as Lake Michigan water temps are currently in the low 70s.
Expect these showers and storms to focus over southeast KS through the morning before exiting by late morning as the trough continues to push southeast. Otherwise expect temperatures to climb into the low 80s across the area today. Cool mid level temps and the passing of subtle PV waves ahead of a cold front may support some popcorn style convection tomorrow afternoon and early evening.
205 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020 Rain chances will be increasing late Saturday as deepening low pressure over the lower Ohio valley lifts into the southern Great Lakes.
248 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020 (Tonight and Saturday) An isolated shower or thunderstorm remains a possibility in the vicinity of the cold front.
400 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020 A slow-moving cold front currently in North Dakota is heading southeast towards the Northland.
1137 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2020 A low pressure system centered over northern Manitoba will swing an upper trough across the northern plains, with weak cool front sliding southward across the forecast area today and tonight. On Saturday, high pressure will dip southward into the central Dakotas/Nebraska.
132 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2020 Over the next couple of days the forecast area will be in northwest flow as a strong upper ridge remains across the Intermountain West.
1159 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2020 As models had indicated over the past several days, the atmosphere has become progressively drier as high pressure has anchored over the Southwest.
/Tonight through Tomorrow Night/ This rare summer time cold front will continue to drop south and east over the course of the afternoon, continuing the thunderstorm activity. Behind the cold front, expect relatively pleasant weather over the course of the weekend. Afternoon high temperatures on Saturday will range from the upper-80s to low-90s, but due to the cold front, afternoon humidity will be low compared to previous days. Overnight lows will also feel on the cooler side, as lows will range from the upper-60s to low-70s.
1241 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020 An area of high pressure at the surface will slowly cross the West central High Plains Today.
Temperatures, overall, will favor below normal for the weekend as a cooler airmass infiltrates the Northern Plains.
Reimer Satellite imagery shows a high amplitude ridge to our west, extending from the SW CONUS to northern Rockies. Otherwise, increased easterly winds (10-20 mph) under above normal heights should result in capping for the lower elevations. High temps today should reach the low-mid 90s most places. Saturday will be less mixed and a bit cooler with temps very close to Aug 1st normals.
303 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020 A surface and upper level low pressure system continue to spin over Missouri producing very heavy rain and some flooding across the lower Midwest. Overnight temps will be a degree or too cooler overnight compared to this morning.
Strong high pressure keeps the hot and dry air mass over Nevada through the weekend.
Actual drier and cooler airmass is still upstream NW of Winnipeg to Brandon region and this will drop south tonight lowering dew pts. Behind the front winds will turn to the north with cooler and drier air filtering into the region as canadian high pressure settles southward.
A line of storms along a pre-frontal trough axis was pushing through Northeast Alabama early this afternoon. As the trough aloft becomes more neutrally tilted and pushes into the Deep South tomorrow, a final round of showers and thunderstorms is possible in the afternoon. The 500 mb trough will then settle over the Mississippi Valley, placing the TN Valley in southwest flow aloft.
A mid-level trough axis will continue to dig into the Lower Mississippi Valley through the overnight hours. Several lobes of positive vorticity associated with this trough will help to refuel storm activity over central Mississippi, which will make its way northeastward into the Tennessee Valley through the early morning. A tightening pressure gradient due to the mid-level trough influence results in an LLJ that will further enhance the potential for storm development until around daybreak. As the trough aloft becomes more neutrally tilted and pushes into the Deep South tomorrow, a final round of showers and thunderstorms is possible in the afternoon. The 500 mb trough will then settle over the Mississippi Valley, placing the TN Valley in southwest flow aloft.