Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1153 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2015 SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO TONIGHT WITH WINDS GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME DROPS TO MVFR FROM THE LOWER CEILINGS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO MINNESOTA THAT PUSHES EAST INTO WISCONSIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT A LIGHT EAST FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN TO KEEP EAST AREAS COOLER.
709 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2015 TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S THIS MORNING. SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING HAS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN WI WITH CLEAR/CALM CONDITIONS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. PLAN ON INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS. FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH A DECENT PUSH OF 700-300MB PV-ADVECTION AND 850MB MOIST TRANSPORT. HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
614 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2015 RIDGE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ACROSS IOWA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND WAA HELPING TO WARM TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST LATE IN THE PERIOD.
STARTING IN EARNEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS ENERGY FROM AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH SWINGS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH INTO OUR CWA. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK TODAY UNDER LOW PRESSURE, BUT SEAS WILL INCREASE TODAY DUE TO BUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL.
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. AS A RESULT OF THE DRY AIRMASS AND RIDGING ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO SLOWLY CREEP INTO THE LOW 60S BY TOMORROW EVENING. WITH A DIRTY RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND AN UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW AVERAGING AROUND 25 KTS. THIS SCENARIO WILL GENERATE A STAGNANT WARM AND MOIST AIR CONVEYOR BELT OUT AHEAD OF A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW IN THE ROCKIES. IN ADDITION A STEADY SURGE OF GULF AIR WILL ADVECT NORTH IN THE LOW LEVELS.
1056 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SW SOUTH DAKOTA WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY. THESE WINDS WILL DRAW WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S. WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 50S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A GOOD FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING ARE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AN AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TOMORROW. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING WHETHER UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL OR A RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
1223 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT RAIN TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT ADVANCES NWRD FROM THE GULF COAST. ADDITIONAL SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS INSTABILITY IS ENHANCED WITH THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL HAS PICKED UP ON THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OUT OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND MOVES IT EAST AS IT WEAKENS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA.
THE PCPN WAS A RESULT OF A STUBBORN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE TWO STATE AREA WHICH WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER WA/OR AND THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAINLY NORTH OF THE STATE LINE TODAY. AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OREGON EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS AN AREA OF HEAVY PRECIP LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THIS LOW.
The upper level ridge or summer time high is currently over western Texas this morning.
THE COOLER AIR ALOFT AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STAY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA SO NO REAL TRIGGER OR SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET BEING FOCUSED SOUTH OF THE WAVE.
359 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE THANKS TO SURFACE DEW POINTS IN SOME AREAS IN THE LOWER 80S WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 60-70 KTS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS FOR TONIGHT. UPPER TROF FORECAST TO ROTATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND COUPLED WITH AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND SURFACE TROF APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH.
300 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OVERVIEW: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SRN STATES THIS MORNING WITH A DECENT JET STREAK RUNNING FROM WYOMING TO IOWA. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE SLOWLY MOVES ON TO THE SE SLOWLY DRAGGING SHOWERS OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE SHALLOW COOLER AIR BEGINS TO GET PULLED INTO NRN MICHIGAN.
315 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015 UPR HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT OVR CENTRAL TX TODAY. AREAS OVR AND NR THE MTNS SHOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF PCPN THIS EVENING. ON TUE THE UPR HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND BECOME CENTERED OVR ERN TX AS AN UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE WRN STATES.
247 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NEW ENGLAND THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND CLAUDETTE MOVES TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
CONDITIONS TUESDAY NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH DIFFERENT AS STOUT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE.
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. /ISSUED 344 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS W/ THE 00Z KOUN SOUNDING SAMPLING -3 C AT 500MB WHICH IS NEAR SEASONAL EXTREMES.
THE HIGH CAPE FORECAST OF 3500-4500 J/KG /DEPENDING ON MODEL/ AND HIGH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS SUPPORTS RAPID SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
High temperatures today will soar into the mid to upper 90s across the forecast area as a thermal ridge continues to grip the region. The entire extent of the forecast period reveals a rather stagnant upper-level pattern as 500mb ridging dominates the south-central CONUS with some shifting in either direction (E to W). Confidence is on the low side with respect to PoPs this afternoon through tonight. For tomorrow through the middle of the week, the aforementioned boundary doesn't appear to be going anywhere and a loosening of the upper-level ridge overhead is where the possibility of repeated rounds of convection comes in. As UL ridging resumes control later in the week, so goes along with it the lack of widespread convection chances.
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATION WITH SURFACE RIDGING OUT OF THE GULF GIVING A LIGHT AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM NORTH TEXAS WITH A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHWEST GULF. THE GFS IS HINTING AT SOME WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE PATTERN LATER IN THE WEEK.
850 MB temperatures will increase over the area today concomitant with a strengthening upper level high pressure area centered over the forecast area. This will result in warmer afternoon highs for the forecast area today with upper 90s and possibly a few triple digit readings. For the overnight hours expect lighter southerly winds of 5 to 10 mph and morning lows in the lower to mid 70s. The center of the upper high will slowly retrograde, during the next 7 days. This westward shift will help the thermal ridge, at 850mb, to expand farther east into West Central Texas, during the afternoon hours.
513 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NEW ENGLAND THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND CLAUDETTE MOVES TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
A LINE OF WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. TUESDAYS HIGHS SHOULD MAX OUT IN THE LOW 90S.
1247 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA TODAY.
H85 TEMPS IN THE MID 20S CELSIUS DROPPING TO THE LOWER 20S CELSIUS BEHIND THE FRONT.
EACH RUN OF THE HRRR HAS ADVECTED THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSIVELY FURTHER EAST. RESULTING TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACRS THE LAKES WILL SHUNT UNSTABLE LL THETA-E RIDGE SWWD UNDER PERSISTENT H5 RIDGE CNTRD ACRS E TX. HWVR RESPITE FM WET PATTN LIKELY FLEETING AS SRN PLAINS RIDGE BLDS BACK NORTH AGAIN W/EWD FOLDING THETA-E RIDGE XPCD DOWNSTREAM OF A SERIES OF AT TIMES CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED DISTURBANCES EJECT OUT OF AMPLIFYING WRN US TROUGHING. OTRWS VRY WARM TEMPS XPCD TO MANIFEST UNDERNEATH STEADILY NWD BLDG UPR RIDGE AXIS AND NO DOUBT HOT.
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST ND. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION TUE. UPPER LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE TEMPS LOWER TO THE UPPER 80S TODAY WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. WARMER ADVECTION PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL LEAD TO HUMID CONDITIONS AT THE SFC.
WITH H5 RIDGING ALOFT. H5 RIDGE OVERHEAD DEFLECTING MOISTURE WELL TO THE EAST. SO HIGHS TODAY MAY BE EVEN WARMER THAN FORECAST.
1223 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 18Z TAF CYCLE UPPER HIGH WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITION THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.
523 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
TEMPERATURES AT MIDDAY WERE RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER CALIFORNIA THROUGH MIDWEEK. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL WARM TO AROUND 100.
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND GENERAL WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE MIDLVL RIDGE AXIS DOES SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEBRASKA BY WED.
THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER TEXAS EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN TEXAS DRIFTS TO THE ARKLATEX REGION. A LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES WHILE EXTENDING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WV IMAGERY SHOWS TROF WCST. RIDGE CNTRL WITH CENTER OVR TX. INCLUDING WY WHERE THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES THRU. THEN TROF ERN CONUS. EMBEDDED SW WITHIN RIDGE MOVING INTO SWRN ID. SFC HAS GENERALLY WEAK HIGH P OVR WY WITH A WEAK TROF ORIENTED FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE STATE. TERRAIN CONVERGENCE OVR THE HIGHER PEAKS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE PLAINS.
HOWEVER LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPS ACROSS CENTRAL KS WHERE ONGOING STORMS/LIMITED INSOLATION SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA ON THU AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOW/MID LVL THERMAL RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WITH A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. A SURFACE TROF AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
251 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 WITH A PRETTY STOUT RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COOLER.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS WEEK.
LOCAL RADARS ARE DETECTING ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE LOWER KEYS. OUR AREA LIES BETWEEN A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND A GULF REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE. A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS WILL LIE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ARCHIPELAGO OF CUBA. BECAUSE OF THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE RIDGE.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE FIRING WELL TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS YET TO SWING ACROSS APPALACHIANS. DECREASING OVERNIGHT WITH DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST.
A VERY ACTIVE AND STORMY PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE SHORT TERM AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. SHARPENING UP A LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE AS A MORE STOUT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
The upper level high over the southern plains will keep us in an area of northwest flow overnight.
/ISSUED 349 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015/ ON AVERAGE EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE A DEGREE COOLER THAN THEY WERE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING. WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS THE COOLER MEMBERS HAVE PROVEN TO BE MORE ACCURATE.
THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED PREDOMINANTLY OVER TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RETREAT TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH OF THE PALMER DVD THIS MORNING BETWEEN 12-14Z. ANOTHER HOT DAY ON TAP TODAY AS THE INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS WELL MIXED AND WARM TO START THE DAY. AND 80S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. UPPER TROF RIDING UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN U. S RIDGE STARTS TO SEND DRIER AIR INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH PRECIP WATERS DROPPING FROM.
306 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
1230 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP IN CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND COMPACT UPPER LOW NOW OPENING UP AS IT WORKS INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. COMPACT UPPER LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER CONTINUES TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WITH POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE. COOL UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TODAY WITH A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN ND WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY.
1123 AM MDT MON JUL 13 2015 STEEP LL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A SMALL CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LOW ALONG THE ND/CNDN BORDER WITH WLY FLOW THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. TROF HAS MOVED INTO THE FAR ERN DAKOTAS. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER HIGH DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION WHILE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD DIGS SOUTHWARD PRODUCING DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE FL PENINSULA AS A SERIES OF UPPER VORT MAXES DROP INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVEL SW FLOW TO SLOWLY DEEPEN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS HOLDS OVER THE FL STRAITS. MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U. THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
SECONDARY VORT EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLIES TO LEE OF PLAINS UPPER RIDGE MAY KICK OFF MORE SCTRD SHOWERS AND STORMS ACRS THE WESTERN GRT LKS BY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT MAIN CHC OF ORGANIZED STORMS WILL COME THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A RIDGE-RIDING VORT IS PROGGED TO COME ACRS THE REGION AT A FAVORABLE TIME FOR CONVECTION. LONGER RANGE PROGS SUGGEST UPPER RIDGE MIGRATION ACRS THE LOWER TO MID MS RVR VALLEY MAY SHUNT THE MAIN STORMS TRACK JUST OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA LIKE A MORE NORMAL DEEP SUMMER PATTERN.
IT MAY GET WORSE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS UPPER RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST A BIT MORE THAN WE'RE SEEING TODAY. THE HEAT RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST PRODUCING NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WERE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MN AND RIDGE ALOFT WAS STILL CENTERED OVER TX. THERMAL RIDGE AT 700 MB STRETCHED FROM NM INTO CO AND KS. THERMAL RIDGE AT 850 MB WAS LOCATED FROM NM INTO WRN SD. DRIER AIR WAS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BUT 850 MB DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE TEENS FROM IA BACK INTO ERN NE. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 08Z SHOWED A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURVING FROM THE ERN SD INTO NWRN KS. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. DEWPOINTS WERE MOSTLY IN THE 70S BUT DROP TO 60S AND 50S WEST OF THE TROUGH. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
HIGHER PRESSURE AND AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS COMING WEEK.
TEMPS TOMORROW WILL AGAIN WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
/ISSUED 1050 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015/ SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY OVERHEAD. BUT AT THIS TIME WE/LL ONLY MENTION SCT AS THE LOW-LEVELS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT. STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS AND MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERSISTS AS WELL. WHICH WERE LARGELY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
Antecedent soil conditions make areas east of I-65 the highest threat, but with mid-upper 70 dewpoints, any storm is capable of blinding rain and copious rains that could cause true flash flooding.
1221 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUED TO PRODUCE RAIN OVER THE BORDER REGION WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. FOCUS TURNS TO TUESDAY AS THE REGION BECOMES SITUATED BETWEEN A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. AND A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE DAKOTAS. THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING A COOLER AND DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW FROM CANADA. HAVE KEPT POPS TUESDAY FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD FRONT.
241 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
413 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL BEGIN ITS GRADUAL WEAKENING TONIGHT AS THE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST TO OUR EAST. MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AGAIN CENTER ITSELF ACROSS THE PANHANDLES DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER RUNS HAVE CONTINUALLY DELAYED THE RE- ESTABLISHMENT OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
1219 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPRESS ALL BUT A FEW HIGH BASED CUMULUS AT 7-8K FEET THIS AFTERNOON. /ISSUED 316 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015/ EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A BROAD TROUGH TRANSLATES INTO THE WESTERN STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER LOCALLY PROVIDING ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH MID-90S COMMON ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 90S TO ABOUT 101 DEGREES OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
CAMS LIKE THE 4 KM NAM AND NMM SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/THERMAL TROUGH. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE NORTHERN ZONES (30-40 PERCENT) AND LOWER SOUTH. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.
CAMS LIKE THE 4 KM NAM AND NMM SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/THERMAL TROUGH. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE NORTHERN ZONES (30-40 PERCENT) AND LOWER SOUTH. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. BY TUESDAY EVENING, ADDITIONAL STORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO WILL MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS IN THE LOW LEVEL POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LOW ALONG THE ND/CNDN BORDER WITH WLY FLOW THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. TROF HAS MOVED INTO THE FAR ERN DAKOTAS. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES.
AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST IS SENDING WEAK IMPULSES OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SETTING OFF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND LESS ENERGY IS AVAILABLE TO IMPACT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
348 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE OK/TX REGION AS OF THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST BEING THE INFLUENCE OF THE CLUSTER OF STORMS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TONIGHT AND THE SECOND BEING THE CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH IN THE NE/KS/IA/MO REGION AND WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT A STRONGER AND MORE ROBUST TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO STREAM OVER THE AREA TODAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER HOT DAY EXPECTED FOR SOME WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER.
SYNOPTICALLY A LONGWAVE TROF OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH WILL LEAD US WITH ONE MORE DAY OF SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR INLAND SPOTS.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTER REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AND EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS EVENING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SIMILAR SETUP SYNOPTICALLY FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING WEAKER RIDGING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS. THE HIGHER CHANCES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ON TUESDAY AS THE ANTECEDENT CANDIDNESS SHOULD REMAIN MOIST AS THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS WEST.
AND TUESDAY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. ANTICIPATE SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE BEFORE STORMS INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE H850 TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH CAPES OF NEAR 1500 THIS AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF STORMS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY BUT LIKELY MORE FOCUSED EARLY IN THE DAY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DUE TO FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE AREA AND THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.