Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1232 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2016 Strong northwest flow between departing low and advancing high pressure is producing lake effect enhanced diurnal bkn-ovc deck generally in the 3-4k ft range. High pressure will maintain a northwest flow through Tuesday with mostly clear skies tonight and some scattered diurnal cu by early afternoon Tuesday. Temperatures on the colder/below normal side for the work week as large and deep upper level low currently over Quebec is slow to exit. As such, looking at highs in the lower 50s, supported by 925 mb temps up around 5 C as well. Northwest confluent upper level flow this evening leading to strong subsidence and short lived warming at the 850 mb level, which should scour out the daytime cloud cover, setting us up for a favorable radiating night with temperatures falling toward freezing.
850 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016 An upper level disturbance will pass north of the area today and a cold front will move through the area Sunday afternoon.
The strongest storms have been on the southern edge of the higher instability near a weak frontal boundary.
Some cooler air aloft could allow for more thunderstorm activity, particularly along the pinned sea breeze along the southern end of the peninsula.
1231 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016 A warmer and more humid day. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase this afternoon and tonight as a cold front approaches.
953 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016 Minor update to trim morning PoPs from all but the far eastern zones where satellite and radar show a small vortex embedded within a broad weakness of the upper level ridge.
This disturbance is forecast to slowly move east or northeast through the day and bring the highest rain chances today to western north Texas and possibly far southern Oklahoma this evening. Highs today may be a degree or two cooler than yesterday, especially over western north Texas and southern Oklahoma as increasing moisture and clouds may limit heating a bit.
1041 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016 An upper level disturbance will pass north of the area today and a cold front will move through the area Sunday afternoon.
/issued 401 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016/ (Today and tonight) A closed upper-level cyclone is spinning over the Big Country early this morning, trapped beneath the mid-level ridge building north into the Central Plains. Temperatures will be near to just slightly above seasonal norms tonight, with overnight lows in the lower 70s.
Slight chance of late day showers or thunderstorms across the higher elevations of the northern Sierra Nevada south of Lake Tahoe. Upper trough remains across the region today before slowly filling on Sunday. An upper level trough currently along the west coast will be shifting slowly eastward today. Upper level flow will be mainly out of the west and northwest today under the main upper trough so not expecting wind advisory windspeeds today. Meanwhile the upper trough axis will produce some instability over the Sierra from about Tahoe southward so still looks like a threat of showers or thunderstorms there during the day Sunday. Expecting temperatures around normal today under the trough with a little warming to above normal on Sunday.
Models continue to indicate dry and stable air will preside across much of Se Ga and coastal Ne Fl along the ridge axis. Onshore flow today will shift to more S or SW Sun through mid week as high pressure shifts well SE of the waters.
Most of the region will experience high temperatures 2-5 degrees below normal today under an unseasonably cool upper trough. North winds and seas will increase this morning over all waters as a thermal trough develops along the coast.
An area of low pressure currently over eastern MT/WY will be the dominant weather feature through the short term portion of the forecast. Moisture pooling along a warm front should keep afternoon RH values from falling into the 30 percent range where the winds are the strongest. While the cold front will have plenty of instability to work with.
1021 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016 High pressure remains entrenched across the Tennessee Valley today. highs in the low to mid 90s will be common in most areas across the Valley. think that the strong subsidence underneath this ridge will suppress most Cu that develop this afternoon.
Cluster of convection continues across eastern Iowa and to the southwest in the panhandles area of the high plains, while the forecast area remains warm and dry. Upper ridge continues to move eastward over the area with weak upper low over Oklahoma and north Texas moving very little through Sunday.
/issued 443 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): Broad 500 mb troffing will prevail over much of the Lone Star state throughout the weekend. Short term model guidance tries to form up a closed 500 mb low over the central and northern portions of the state later tonight into Sunday with this closed low starting to move up to north or northeast on Sunday. Will maintain afternoon pops in the 20 to 30 % range for today and Sun as enough instability and mid level troffiness could help along some isold/sct afternoon conv.
Amplified H5 ridge axis has shifted east of the region and will continue to do so thru the remainder of the weekend. A lee-side trough will move off the Front Range of the Rockies during the day today.
The RAP was the warmest model with highs 2 tor 3 degrees warmer than the blended forecast. The blended guidance plus bias correction produces highs about a degree cooler than the forecast. Given that temperatures are in the 70s at 2 am CDT the warmer temperatures and heat indices forecast might verify provided deep mixing does not develop and wipe out the higher dew point air. Hot temperatures remain a concern for Sunday as high temperatures reach into the low to mid-90s for the majority of the CWA. A much more active pattern then begins on Sunday night as a cold front tracks across the region late Sunday afternoon and into the evening hours.
Model guidance has struggled with CI as upper level low continues to wobble over the region resulting in scaled back POPS for the first half of today.
Inland activity got an early start this morning and was already ongoing at the beginning of the shift, and with convective temps in the lower 80s, not surprised to see sctd convection stretching from I-10 into the Lakes region and Cntl LA. Generally high pressure reflection aloft, except separated by a weak trof over the Western and Northern Gulf.
Will be keeping a close eye on the warm frontal boundary today for shower and thunderstorm development. Precipitable water values remain on the high side, especially south of interstate 90 where values are hovering right around 2 inches. Given the weak cap this afternoon we could get some showers and storms to go right along the warm front.
As we head into Sunday morning and through the day Sunday, an upper level low will begin to make its way across the Plains and undercut the upper level ridge. While this will not produce a change in temperatures with the upper ridge still located across the center of the country, it will bring better dynamics to the area and the potential for showers and storm development.
645 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016 Going to be another warm day with high temps a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday. Convection early this morning continues to wane in eastern IA and convective models continue to diminish the pcpn as it moves south toward the much warmer airmass in MO and parts of IL.
This will lower high temperatures more than previously though in these areas into the lower 90s, despite some eroding of the clouds near and east of Lawrence County this afternoon.
/issued 404 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016/ There are a few showers and thunderstorms early this morning mainly along/south of the Pecos River and toward the higher terrain of the Big Bend Area, aided by a nocturnal low-level jet. Under the continued influence of an upper ridge, near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected again this afternoon. An upper low will come ashore over the western CONUS by Sunday, resulting in the ridge axis shifting further to the east of the area. Despite the eastward shift of the ridge, conditions Sunday look to be similar to today with diurnally driven thunderstorms as well as slightly warmer above normal temperatures.
An upper level trough will shift east of the Cascades by this afternoon. A weak ridge of high pressure offshore will traverse the area later tonight and Sunday.
/Issued 446 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016/ Line of thunderstorms developed after midnight east of surface trof, in area marked by positive vorticity advection in very weak flow aloft. On Sunday, have increased pops in western sections, as surface trof is expected to sharpen near the New Mexico state line.
Generally high pressure reflection aloft, except separated by a weak trof over the Western and Northern Gulf.
The warming trend is in response to both the upper level trough that is now over the Pacific Northwest lifting northeast out of the region today while a ridge offshore from California builds into our area.
The upper ridge is overhead now, and 850mb temps are warmer than 20C.
Cool air has spread over all our CWA this morning following yesterday's cold front. Upper trough axis now extends from BC southward through Washington and Oregon, but the trough will shear to the northeast through Sunday. Upper level low, with one section over northern Washington and the other off the coast of southern California, will continue to split over the next 36 hours. Temperatures will be cool and below normal today from the cold front that moved through yesterday, but Sunday should be closer to normal.
With the additional low-level moisture, we should remain a degree or two cooler for most that what was observed yesterday, but the heat index will unfortunately increase as a result.
A weak upper level trough is bringing showers and thunderstorms as it drifts to the east across western Texas to the Big Bend. As the low level weakens, the rains wane by midday. The seabreeze may be enhanced by the upper trough leading to showers and thunderstorms developing near the coastal plains by midday and moving to the northwest and dissipating as they reach I-35 and the eastern Hill Country early this evening. The trough continues eastward overnight into Sunday.
934 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016 Warm front creeps northeast of the area today. Cold front Sunday.
Much reduced threat for severe storms today as the cooler, stable conditions will likely result in just a few weak, pulse-type storms.
Weak upper low underneath broad scale ridge just to the west warrants low pops for this afternoon for mainly southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas.
For today, a strong short wave will eject from the trough to our west causing an uptick in precipitation due to increased moisture, instability, and lift. Temperatures will remain on the warm side throughout though precip and increased clouds will keep high temperatures a little bit cooler than seen recently.
U/L ridge will build over the Gulf of Mexico Saturday night and Sunday with some drying aloft taking place across the forecast area which will decrease areal coverage of afternoon thunderstorms.
Today Through Sunday Night A large ridge of high pressure encompasses most of the U. with an upper trough over the west coast. This upper ridge will continue over the central part of the country through Sunday night. Upper low pressure will strengthen over the northeast U.
Short range guidance is very insistent that this weakening trend will continue through the remainder of the morning as the low level jet continues to veer and the convection moves into more stable air over northeast Missouri. Forecast dewpoints are only in the mid to upper 60s, so heat index readings don't get higher than the mid and upper 90s High pressure is forecast to move down into parts of the upper Midwest tonight. This will force a backdoor cold front into northeast Iowa. The low level jet strengthens again north of the area and another round of convection should develop in the vicinity of the front.
944 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016 Westerly flow between high pressure to our south and an approaching cold front to our north will bring hot temperatures to the region today. The cold front will sag south into the area tonight, continuing slowly south across the Ohio River valley on Sunday.
The upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest will swing east-northeast across the region today, exiting this evening. Energy ahead of the trough axis will cause a few showers over the Blue mountains and across Wallowa county. Also a few showers may drift off the Washington Cascade east slopes, affecting portions of the lower elevations of southeast Washington late this afternoon.
1055 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016 Atlantic high pressure will prevail today while a trough of low pressure strengthens inland.
02z water vapor imagery shows a stream of moisture continuing south to north from the Gulf along the east side of an upper trough. (Issued 603 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016) (Issued 235 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016) Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper level low shifting to the north-northeast across the Great Plains, while Tropical Depression 2 makes its way towards the South Carolina coast. In between these two low pressure systems, a convergence axis was located parallel and just east of I-65 over the TN Valley. Meanwhile, extensive dense cirrus was holding across the forecast area, keeping our temperatures several degrees cooler than those yesterday. Meanwhile, the axis of the upper trough will flatten, leaving zonal flow over the forecast area on Sunday.
The upper trough has finally lifted northeast into IA and southern MN this afternoon. There may be enough weak ascent and residual moisture on the southwest extent of the H5 trough axis for some isolated showers or thunderstorms along the NE border across northeast KS late this afternoon. As the lee trough deepens, southerly surface winds will gradually increase to 10 to 20 MPH during the afternoon hours. Highs on Sunday will warm into the lower to mid 80s. This advancing wave will help to lift the frontal boundary currently draped across Oklahoma northward as a warm front into central Kansas.
758 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 An area of low pressure is centered near the coast of South Carolina. Forecast models are in general agreement, tropical low pressure near the south carolina coast resulting in increasing cloudiness across the carolinas overnight and a northwest drift of showers from the coast. Not confident of much precip making it into WVA or far western Va so will maintain a tight gradient of POPs west of the Blue Ridge. High humidity and showers will be in the forecast as long as it remains with highest pops along and east of the Blue Ridge, and lowest in the west. With more breaks in the cloud cover, temperatures should be warmer with 80s for highs.
714 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 High pressure over the region will weaken as a weak cold front moves across the area on Sunday. High pressure will return to the region for the first part of the week. With the approaching front and the weakening ridge, I will not completely rule out the chance of a few storms overnight but I will lower the probabilities into the slight chance category. A weak cold front will move across the forecast area on Sunday. Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Sunday as cloud cover and thunderstorms are expected with the frontal passage.
523 PM MDT SAT MAY 28 2016 Visible satellite this afternoon shows cu developing across the entire area but a bit more organized upstream near the Cheyenne Ridge. Latest runs of the hires models suggest isolated showers/thunderstorms will drift southeast from the Cheyenne Ridge before dissipating around sunset. A storm or two could briefly pulse up to near severe limits in that environment but overall the severe threat will be on the low end for Sunday afternoon.
/issued 331 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/ Water vapor imagery shows an upper level low now up in the northern plains with trailing trough now along and east of the Mississippi River Valley. Therefore, less convective activity is taking place today, and as we near max daytime heating, just some isolated activity is developing near the Lakes Area of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana, as well as the lower Atchafalaya Basin. The upper level low over the northern plains will continue to open up and move further to the north-northeast, meanwhile, an upper level low off the Pacific coast will move into the southwest U. This will help build upper level ridging from northern old Mexico across the forecast area.
This quieter pattern to remain in place the next couple of days as weak ridging aloft holds over the state. The break down of the upper ridge on Tues should herald the approach/passage of the upper trof/low around mid-week. This system combined with a late season cold front will help to produce widespread activity as these systems appear to meet in SE TX. 41 Winds/seas over the coastal waters continuing to trend downward as high pressure continues to build into the region. No real change with this pattern is fore- cast until weeks end with the possibility of a cold front.
(Issued 235 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016) Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper level low shifting to the north-northeast across the Great Plains, while Tropical Depression 2 makes its way towards the South Carolina coast. In between these two low pressure systems, a convergence axis was located parallel and just east of I-65 over the TN Valley. Meanwhile, extensive dense cirrus was holding across the forecast area, keeping our temperatures several degrees cooler than those yesterday. Meanwhile, the axis of the upper trough will flatten, leaving zonal flow over the forecast area on Sunday.
620 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016 Satellite Water Vapor Imagery showing closed low vicinity of KFSD with a trough extending southeast through central IA. Ascent/lift ahead of this low combined with fairly humid airmass was leading to scattered shower/thunderstorms across the area per latest radar trends. will likely continue to see isolated showers through the overnight hours with mid-level trough moving overhead. Trough lingers overhead Sunday for more showers and late morning/afternoon scattered thunderstorms. Look for the trough to push east of the area Sunday night with weak ridging building in for clearing skies. Will see a chance of showers/thunderstorms mainly west of the Mississippi River on Memorial Day in warm air advection/isentropic lift ahead of low pressure moving into the Northern Plains.
Still a few showers/thunderstorms possible with the main mid level trough pushing into wisconsin tonight. A chance for showers and storms will linger on Sunday as the upper trough moves through. Models are suggesting a return of some lower ceilings for a while as the trough slides through. The main trough axis is expected to move through on Sunday, bringing a chance for a few showers and storms.
631 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016 Short range (Today through Tomorrow): The upper level trough that has been our weather maker this week is evident on water vapor imagery centered near Sioux Falls. This trough is expected to move into the western Great Lakes by tonight. Afternoon/early evening instability showers and thunderstorms, mainly across northern Missouri will be possible as this upper trough makes its progress through the region. Consequently, isolated to widely scattered storms will be possible this afternoon and early evening but with a weakening upper trough and a loss of instability near sunset, storms will diminish. Height rises during the day tomorrow will help temperatures rise into the low to mid 80s. The main feature of interest will be an upper level trough over the southwestern CONUS.
Weak low to mid level trough remains over western Tennessee down through Mississippi but weakens even further during the day Sunday.
621 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016 A weak cold front is working its way east through the CWA early this afternoon. Temps tonight should fall into the low to mid 60s, with somewhat drier air building in from the northwest. This slightly drier airmass, along with a bit of ridging aloft, should help temper thunderstorm chances significantly through the day Sunday.
Deep moisture was lacking to the southwest of Tropical Cyclone Bonnie which was nearing the South Carolina coast. The tropical cyclone is forecast to only lift slowly north, but enough so for higher moisture that was over south Florida to nudge into about the south third of our area, especially over Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. The slow moving Tropical Cyclone/remnant low is forecast to only creep northward along the Carolina coast. Therefore, the Atlantic ridge will not build back in across Florida with much gusto as a weak trailing trough lingers in the vicinity.
1148 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016 Short range (Today through Tomorrow): The upper level trough that has been our weather maker this week is evident on water vapor imagery centered near Sioux Falls. This trough is expected to move into the western Great Lakes by tonight. Afternoon/early evening instability showers and thunderstorms, mainly across northern Missouri will be possible as this upper trough makes its progress through the region. Consequently, isolated to widely scattered storms will be possible this afternoon and early evening but with a weakening upper trough and a loss of instability near sunset, storms will diminish. Height rises during the day tomorrow will help temperatures rise into the low to mid 80s. The main feature of interest will be an upper level trough over the southwestern CONUS.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 89 65 91 / 10 20 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 86 65 87 / 10 30 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 64 87 64 87 / 10 20 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 78 57 84 / 20 50 20 20.
A modest amount of moisture will continue to be entrained over the region as the next low pressure system develops over southern California through Sunday.
However, the current strength of the northerly surface flow at least across northern California will eventually push the low clouds into the salinas valley, after they have rounded the corner into the Monterey Bay. The surface flow is forecast to become stronger onshore tomorrow with current temperatures becoming cooler, especially near the coast, where upper 50s to mid 60s are expected. High pressure aloft will quickly rebuild on Memorial Day with temperatures rebounding with warm highs expected through the rest of the week. SFO Bridge Approach.
(Issued 901 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016) 02z water vapor imagery shows a stream of moisture continuing south to north from the Gulf along the east side of an upper trough.
On this date in Florida Keys weather history, in 1916, the low temperature in Key West was 68 degrees.
Tomorrow the tropical system may flake off enough moisture to cause some showers/thunderstorms with the highest chances being at KTRI followed by KTYS then KCHA.
As the trough lifts farther north, a weak ridge will move in behind. A Hot ridge runs from western Mexico through Arizona and terminates over Nevada. To the north a trough runs the north/south extent of British Columbia In between a zonal to slightly southwestern flow has set up over the Pacific Northwest and high plains of Wyoming and Montana. warm air is expected to advect in from the south aloft forcing a little bit of a meso-ridge during these 24 hours and keeping shower and thunderstorms activity minimal if not nonexistent. Meanwhile, the trough to the northwest will dislodge and begin moving inland over Alberta ans western Montana.
Increasing cloud cover will develop overnight, from west to east across the region, as a weak upper level low pressure system moves in from the west.