Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A low level trough over the Lake Okeechobee area early this morning will slowly wash out today, as high pressure moves east from the Central United States into the Southeastern United States. There could be a few showers over the interior areas of South Florida this afternoon especially around Lake Okeechobee where the low level trough is located.
A weak cold front will brush northern Arizona on Monday and Tuesday bringing scattered light showers.
A band of showers associated with a warm front stretched across the northern Gulf Coast states. This warm front is forecast to gradually lift north into the Ohio Valley today in response to lee cyclogenesis in the Plains. 300 J/kg MUCAPE may yield some hail, especially given low freezing levels around 10 kft. This activity as well as extensive cloud cover are sources of significant uncertainty with regard to the passage of a strong cold front Tuesday evening. Storms will likely become surface based closer to the pre-frontal trough. Temperatures don't immediately crash behind Tuesday night's strong cold front.
This will increase winds over the high country and adjacent east slopes late tonight and then across the plains on Monday.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer than yesterday with breezy conditions expected this afternoon and early evening over the southern Coastal Bend. Low level jet will develop again this evening but shift to the east overnight as trough axis moves toward the Brush Country. The trough axis will move into the Coastal Bend with low level flow east of the trough axis becoming south-southwest Tuesday. Expect cooler water temperatures will keep wind speeds down slightly for the bays and near shore waters north of Port Aransas.
1201 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 Warmer temperature can be expected today and rain tonight as low pressure moves toward the Great Lakes. No major changes were needed for the midnight update as a weak cold front will complete passage over the region and drop temperature toward, but not quite to, the averages for morning lows. Rain is progged to develop this evening as low pressure digs out of the Plains and across the Great Lakes.
254 AM MST Mon Feb 6 2017 Upper ridging covers much of the CONUS, with a low pressure system over the Pacific Northwest. As the cold front moves into the CWA this morning, winds across northwestern SD will become light and northeasterly. Forecast soundings still hint at freezing drizzle over the western SD plains. Will leave out mention for now, but added a broad area of freezing fog. Expecting fog to dissipate around 09Z as winds become northwesterly and breezy with the cold front.
345 AM CST Mon Feb 6 2017 Forecast concerns over the next 36 hours are centered on precipitation chances, types and amounts associated with a broad trough lifting from the Central Plains to the eastern Great Lakes. Temperatures will be around freezing in most areas, so there is a threat for freezing rain/drizzle. The anticipated worst-case scenario if temperatures end up a bit cooler than currently expected, would be ice accums in the 0. However, not confident low temperatures will be as cold as some of the models indicate, or that we will see enough saturation to produce those precip values, so have held off on a freezing rain advisory.
1140 PM CST Sun Feb 5 2017 Despite the passage of a weak cold front early this morning, warm advection will be the theme for the next few days before a strong cold front sends temperatures back to near-normal by the mid-week. Westerly surface flow will maintain unseasonably warm temperatures already in place, with values approaching the low to mid 60s for areas south of the Missouri River. The aforementioned strong cold front will begin to push into northern Missouri by Tuesday afternoon, thus a relatively sharp thermal gradient will establish north and south of the Missouri River.
Warm frontal boundary sets up near our northern border by midday, while southerly low level flow taps into increasing moisture. Temperatures will be quite tricky with much warmer air arriving, but some snowpack to contend with. Will continue to nudge towards the warmer guidance seen in the BCCONSMOS. The warmer regional CMC and ECMWF place the Missouri Valley well into the mid 50s for highs, however with snowcover, think that this is a little extreme. Highs will range from the mid 30s in the highway 14 corridor to the mid/upper 40s in the Mo Valley. Will keep the trend of lower chances but still a threat for a little freezing drizzle or freezing rain.
This boundary will move northward as a warm front across the western portions of the CWA later this afternoon and evening.
The weather will be mainly quiet and mild today with highs well into the 40s and likely tagging 50 in spots as an initial warm front lifts northward. Scattered to broken mid and high clouds will be overhead at through early afternoon, but then the stratus surging northward (driven by moist warm advection) from the lower Mississippi Valley will lift north across the area the remainder of the afternoon through sunset. Late in the afternoon or more likely during the evening conditions will likely begin to rapidly deteriorate as a warm front approaches.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): A nearly zonal 500 mb flow over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will produce dry weather for the entire short term forecast period with cold front passages not likely.
302 AM CST Mon Feb 6 2017 The ongoing winter weather advisory for the north is the highlight in the short term period.
1147 PM CST Sun Feb 5 2017 Scattered showers will develop/persist across the central and southern parts of the Arkansas through the night and into Monday morning as a warm front lifts north through the area. Once the warm front lifts north, gusty south winds will ensue. Flight categories will fall at all sites through Monday morning as a warm front lifts north into the state. Once the warm front lifts north, ceilings will lift back into the MVFR range but do not expect to see improvement to VFR levels. The low clouds were situated to the N of the warm fnt that was located over CNTRL LA. The apchg upr trof fm the W wl interact with the warmer/more unstable airmass in place to produce SCTD convection.
200 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 High pressure will bring dry weather and mild temperatures today.
1101 PM CST Sun Feb 5 2017 Western fringe of large high pressure will maintain steady state onshore flow for the next 24 to 48 hours. Low levels are warmer than this morning and 24 hrs ago as the warm front pushed north today with more of a maritime airmass. /issued 322 PM CST Sun Feb 5 2017/ Surface observations show that a warm front is located just north of the CWA across southern Mississippi and central Louisiana. Temperatures will respond by moderating with highs increasing into the mid 70s except along the coastlines where cooler coastal waters limit warming. Models show a northern stream trough racing across the upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon.
356 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 Low pressure traveling from the Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes will bring widespread showers and possibly thunderstorms tonight through Tuesday.
121 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 High pressure centered southwest of the forecast area with a low pressure system crossing Southern Canada and the Great Lakes Region. High pressure will rebuild across the area tonight and Monday.
The highest totals will be confined to the counties closest to the International Border.
305 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 High pressure will bring dry weather and mild temperatures today.
Low level high pressure will slide eastward through tonight with mostly zonal flow aloft. The next potential rain-maker will be Tuesday night, as an upper-level short wave trough, currently over the eastern Pacific, translates across the eastern CONUS.
Visibilities are low just ahead of this cloud cover and may remain low for sites located just north of the Mississippi River mainly from Gonzales to New Orleans due to the cooler waters of the river efficiently producing fog and light southerly winds causing it to move out of the river and into communities where the river flows west-east.
Still, moisture supply is impressive this morning, with dewpoints in the low to mid 40s across the southern zones. As such, winds will be lightest across the NE zones near the surface cyclone, and much stronger across the far SW zones (Elkhart to Hugoton to Liberal) where west winds will gust 30-35 mph.
Conditions will change rather dramatically this time tomorrow as low level moisture increases steadily from later this evening through Monday as the ridge slides off to the east. A warm front will try to reach southern MN Monday morning. However, by late Monday afternoon the depth of the low level moisture will be enough to potentially support some patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle. There could still be some noticeable impacts as forecast soundings show the potential for freezing drizzle.
1152 PM CST Sun Feb 5 2017 The warm front has moved very little this evening, and extends from near a GVT, to JDD, to GGG, to just N of IER, to near HEZ as of 0530Z. S winds tonight should eventually increase to 5-9kts with the warm frontal passage, with ESE winds 5kts or less persisting N of the front. Mansfield is up to 3 miles from as low as a quarter mile two hours ago as the warm front nudges near by. Low to 50s from Shreveport to Ruston should climb into the lower 60s overnight.
500 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 Rain chances will be increasing late today through this evening as a low pressure system approaches from the Central Plains.
347 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 High pressure crosses today. A warm front lifts north tonight, followed by a cold front Tuesday night.
330 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 Warmer temperature can be expected today and rain tonight as low pressure moves toward the Great Lakes. Rain is progged to develop this evening as low pressure digs out of the Plains and across the Great Lakes.
1134 PM CST Sun Feb 5 2017 A much warmer day today as expected. As moisture streams into the region, patchy fog and drizzle will likely develop across the region later tonight and early Monday ahead of a subtle surface warm frontal boundary. Ahead of the low, gulf moisture will continue to stream northward into the region. Where we do think there will be a conditional threat (if something does develop it will have potential) for hail and perhaps a strong wind gust or two generally east of the Highway 65 corridor. As the cold frontal boundary moves east, skies are forecast to clear as dry air moves into the region.
1033 PM MST Sun Feb 5 2017 Low amplitude ridge is crossing the northern Rockies into the northern plains. however warmer air is overrunning the arctic airmass in place across western SD.
Southerly flow is increasing ahead of a cold front that will sweep through the forecast area late tonight. Ahead of the cold front will be some precipitation impacting the east slopes of the Washington Cascades and portion of the Columbia basin with some snow and chance of freezing rain. By Monday morning the low and cold front will be east of the region. Steady precipitation will change over to showers with the highest probability over the Cascades and Blues. This will push a warm front through the forecast area during the day into Tue night with rain and snow.
Lingering clouds and shallower mixing should keep temperatures cooler over generally the northern half of KS. With models continuing to slow down the southward progression of the cold front, Tuesday should turn out to be another warm day, with low- level thicknesses supporting 60s to low 70s, warmest over southern KS. The cold front should progress south across the region Tuesday evening/night, with breezy north winds and much cooler temperatures in its wake.
349 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2017 Warm south southwesterly flow will occur through mid-week, between high pressure over the western Atlantic and a low pressure system that will migrate from the Central Plains to southeastern Canada. Temperatures will bottom out near freezing and winds will be calm or light and variable. Ahead of the way, a warm and breezy southwest wind will develop in a broad warm sector downstream of low pressure system lifting through the Midwest.
Surface winds will continue to back this afternoon as the ridge of high pressure moves into the northwest Gulf of Mexico.
1233 PM CDT Mon Apr 3 2017 A nearly stacked low pressure system will lift northeast across the Ozarks region today. Otherwise expect increasing westerly winds at the surface as the low pressure system tracks to the northeast.
Widespread freezing temperatures are expected tonight.
Warm front to move into middle TN this morning and bring an increasing chance of showers. Then, as a cold frontal passage occurs this afternoon, a brief window of thunderstorms will occur, generally prior to 02z.
Dry and seasonably mild conditions will continue across the region through midweek as high pressure builds aloft.
An approaching cold front will lead to windy conditions this afternoon and evening. As the cold front moves into the state, there will also be showers and a few thunderstorms through the pre-dawn hours Tuesday morning. Some snow accumulation is possible at the higher elevations as the precipitation ends. Fair and warmer weather returns for the end of the work week. A vigorous upper trough and cold front are approaching the region this afternoon. At 3 PM, the surface cold front stretched from northern Mohave county into south-central Utah. The front has been slow moving most of the day, but is expected to accelerate southeastward as the upper trough approaches.
Surface wise, a formidable western Atlantic ridge axis lies across the Florida peninsula with a deepening low pressure system centered over Missouri.
Latest vapor imagery showed the axis of the upper trough over the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Showers over our west will continue to increase over the coming hours with diurnal destabilization and as western trof drops southward allowing for winds to veer more northerly. P-type will be a combination of rain/snow/graupel with very low freezing levels in place and surface wet bulb temps that are in the low- mid 30s. Ridging/anticyclonic flow will spread in from the west Tuesday afternoon and evening, marking the beginning of a period of dry weather.
A cold front will remain stalled near the Arizona border through this evening. A weak disturbance will brush northern Utah tonight and Tuesday, followed by the return of high pressure midweek.
/issued 350 AM CDT Mon Apr 3 2017/ (Today and Tonight) In the wake of the departing upper low, skies will be mostly sunny today with afternoon highs warming into the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
This is typical for this time of year with cold low pressure systems like this one, allowing for precip to fall as all-snow down to valley floors. Showers will diminish overnight as high pressure builds over the region from the west.
343 PM CDT Mon Apr 3 2017 Dry slot has finally moved in across the area with skies clearing areawide as upper low open wave tracks across central MS valley.
134 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017 High pressure will be slow to move out of the region, yielding dry conditions into the early half of Monday. A series of crossing low pressure areas will thereafter keep periodic rain chances in the forecast for the upcoming work week. High pressure centered over the area will slide eastward this evening. This will mean return flow around the back side of the high and ahead of the next system to affect the area in tandem with more cloud cover should keep temperatures above the levels we dropped to last night. Fries The first of two low pressure systems for the short term will be exiting the region. Clouds will hang tough most of Tuesday night with saturated conditions in the lowest 5KFT.
The cold front that moved into the coastal waters today will stall and move back to the north as a warm front tomorrow.
346 PM CDT Mon Apr 3 2017 A frontal boundary will move south into the area later tonight before stalling early Tuesday, and then moving back north as a warm front during the day Tuesday. There will be a wide range of temperatures Tuesday afternoon, with 80s south of the warm front, and temperatures struggling to reach 60 in the northwest corner of our forecast area.
200 PM CDT Mon Apr 3 2017 High Impact Weather Potential: Nothing much of note through midweek, save for perhaps some ridge top dense fog at times tonight. With low stratus in place, could continue to see some bouts of thicker fog along the ridge tops (areas enshrouded in cloud cover), but the overall trend of earlier visibility restrictions across the western CWA appears over with ongoing rain and some stronger boundary layer flow overnight courtesy of a better gradient than last night.
302 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017 A strong upper level system and associated cold front will move northeast and east of our region tonight. Weak high pressure crosses our area Tuesday and Tuesday night.
A dry-line will push from west to east and into the I-35 corridor on Tuesday while a dry Pacific cold front pushes into our area from the north Tuesday evening. The latest water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper trough, with several distinct circulations, in place across Texas and Oklahoma early this morning. At the surface, high pressure is in place across south central Texas, with a cold front located roughly along the Texas/Louisiana border. Otherwise, the upper level trough mentioned above will lift northeast into the mid Mississippi river valley, leaving westerly flow in the mid and upper levels across Texas. Temperatures will be warmest generally along and south of the Highway 57 corridor where some low 90s are expected. Westerly flow aloft continues on Tuesday as an upper level trough moves out of the southern Rockies into the Texas panhandle.
Water vapor imagery indicates the very potent mid/upper level trough ejecting northeastward into the Mississippi River Valley. This mid level trough will bring good mid level ascent to the area, which will cause the already ongoing widespread light rain to increase in coverage through the morning. Expect this rain to persist across the area through the rest of the morning hours into the afternoon as the trough pushes east. The wet pattern continues into the middle part of the week as the next trough remains poised to dig into the western CONUS through the day today then eject eastward into the Central Plains Tuesday evening and overnight. After several somewhat disappointing troughs - with respect to precipitation amount - this trough should have a better chance of bringing more drought-busting moisture to the area.
114 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017 Rain will develop today and then spread across the region tonight as low pressure tracks over the area.
There will be some weak instability over Wallowa county and the northern Blues that could produce a few showers through this afternoon but otherwise cool and dry across the forecast area as a ridge of high pressure begins to build into the region from the west. After 00Z the high clouds will increase and lower becoming scattered to broken at 10000-18000 feet after 15Z.
344 PM CDT Mon Apr 3 2017 Tonight and Tuesday: Latest water vapor imagery showed the axis of the upper trough over the Lower Mississippi Valley. The upper trough axis will exit east as a zonal flow pattern takes over. Highs will be in the lower to middle 80s.
155 PM PDT Mon Apr 3 2017 Cooler temperatures and partly cloudy skies for the remainder of the day. High pressure will then build with a warming trend through midweek. A chance of rain and cooler temperatures are expected late in the week. The ridge building in tonight and the offshore trends should lower the depth some and limit the inland push but still solid south of Pt Conception. With the offshore trends Tuesday look for warmer temps everywhere but especially inland as we should see at least a few 80s in the warmer valleys. Then warmer still Wed which will be the warmest day of the period with valley highs in the mid to even high 80s and coastal areas in the 70s.
Strong southwesterly flow aloft with a dry slot noted between an upper level wave and the surface cool front associated with the deep low pressure circulation over the Midwest.
505 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017 Surface analysis shows a warm front advancing NE across the area and a few showers and perhaps a storms could pop in the Bluegrass this evening.
209 PM CDT Mon Apr 3 2017 We continue to be in an active pattern with several short waves and long wave troughs spinning into closed low pressure systems traverse the CONUS. Tomorrow a long wave trough moves across the Rockies and undergoes cyclogenesis in the southern Plains.
Most of the convection will gradually wind down this evening, but increase again tonight and Tuesday as the Great Basin trough tracks east and forms a closed low over northern New Mexico Tuesday morning. It will be much cooler with low level cold air advection in place.
417 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017 Strong surface and upper level low pressure pass through the region today and tonight.
124 PM PDT Mon Apr 3 2017 A low pressure trough will swing southeast across the Great Basin today, resulting in cooling, and gusty westerly over the mountains and deserts into this evening. Gusty north winds will follow on Tuesday morning below the passes and canyons for dry and warmer weather west of the mountains.
So temperatures will be above normal in the lower 90s most areas with a delayed sea breeze.
A cold front moving through Alabama and the western FL panhandle will gradually stall across northern FL tonight and continue to weaken across north FL through Tuesday. Highs Tuesday in the lower 80s near the coast to around 90 inland.
The downward motion and drying should allow for a few hours of quiet weather before the main upper level trough and surface cool front swing across the forecast area overnight.
405 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017 Surface analysis shows a warm front advancing NE across the area and a few showers and perhaps a storms could pop in the Bluegrass this evening.
With the low level moisture, there could be a possibility of patchy fog forming after midnight. But, based on past experience, fog is a possibility of the moisture in the lower levels at this time. uiet through much of the extended with high pressure under control. Initially, there is a split flow pattern with a trough in far northern Ontario and a cutoff across the Central Plains.
234 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017 Showers and isolated thunderstorms will overspread the area late this afternoon into tonight as low pressure tracks into the region.
Ridge of high pressure will move into the West Coast Tuesday, and will lead to a warm and dry day, albeit with plenty of thin cirrus clouds overhead. High temperatures in the Rogue Valley could be in the lower 70s, especially with a pocket of warm air at 850mb extending from southern Jackson County through the Shasta Valley.
341 PM CDT Mon Apr 3 2017 A potent upper level low pressure trough over the eastern Great Basin will rotate over the southern Rockies and across the Texas Panhandle Tuesday afternoon. System will remain progressive while closing off over the high plains. A complication remains an energetic cold front dropping southward Tuesday afternoon that may become enhanced by convective activity. Wind guidance again has come up, into the high wind advisory levels or even just into high wind warning levels mainly across the western South Plains.
204 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017 Strong surface and upper level low pressure pass through the region today and tonight.
a trough swinging to the south of the Montana low will close off and push into the central plains while the Montana system opens up and slides into our area.
324 PM CDT Mon Apr 3 2017 Midafternoon GOES visible imagery showed an upper low centered near St. Banded showers and thunderstorms were moving through the Midsouth ahead of a weak midlevel trof extending south of the upper low. Thereafter, low level instability will wane and the upper low will lift into the upper Midwest. Low amplitude upper level ridging will lead to fair weather and mild temps on Tuesday. The next in series of upper level lows will lift from the southern plains into the mid-MS River valley Tuesday night.