Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
In the meantime, dry weather is anticipated for today and tonight with 500 mb high pressure nosing into the BRO CWFA from the east.
Warm to hot temperatures will persist across the interior through Saturday while cooler conditions prevail near the coast.
239 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022 A cold front is passing through southwest Kansas this evening. Instability is higher north of the front given the higher dewpoints, so it remains to be seen whether storms tap into the higher CAPE and produce very large hail. Drier and cooler air will move into western Kansas behind the front on Saturday, with minimal chances for t-storms. A cold front will pass across the TAF sites between 22 and 04 UTC, with a wind shift to the northeast at 10-12 kts.
107 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022 (Today and tonight) Warmer weather will be the story today as southerly winds return and a low-level thermal ridge to the west expands eastward into the Southern Plains. High temperatures will be around average for mid to late August--ranging from the low to mid 90s deg F.
(Rest of Today) Broad troughing continues this morning across the Tennessee Valley. However, water vapor imagery does indicate some drier air near and to the west of the trough axis.
1002 AM MDT Fri Aug 19 2022 Upper ridging across the western CONUS continues this morning, with northwest flow over the High Plains. Under the ridging, mostly sunny skies are expected today, with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s.
This is located just ahead of a weak cold frontal boundary sagging south into central KS. For the late afternoon hours, expect the north central KS cold front to slowly shift S-SE, with some meager instability around 500- 1000 J/kg expected to be located along it.
Temperatures are in the lower to mid 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s.
PW's won't be as high, diffluence aloft not as pronounced and the subtropical ridge should nose a bit further west into the area. 3") on the outskirts of the Potential Tropical Cyclone 4, currently in the Bay of Campeche, will begin making their way toward the coast late Saturday. 47 Potential Tropical Cyclone 4 is forecast to make its way towards the northeast Mexico or deep south Texas coast this weekend.
An upper-level trough will be exiting our region today with a weak ridge building in from the west.
Tonight will be a little cooler, with lows mostly dropping into the mid to upper 50s. Tomorrow will be slightly warmer with the ridge axis a little more centered across southern Montana. With the ridge just a little farther east than today, there will be a little more southwesterly slow in the mountains, so there will be a slightly better chance for some showers and thunderstorms over the mountains as a little monsoonal moisture can drift into the area. Reimer Upper level ridge will remain in control Sun/Mon yielding above normal temps (highs in the 90s).
130 PM MDT Fri Aug 19 2022 Things will gradually warm over the next several days as an upper ridge moves east back into the area.
250 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022 There could possibly be some impacts this evening if showers and thunderstorms end up training across an area, however, confidence in this is on the lower end. With the low pressure system spinning to our SE, showers and thunderstorms will continue to redevelop into the evening across SE North Dakota and W Central Minnesota. Large scale pattern will feature a deepening Hudson Bay upper low and strengthened monsoonal ridge across the southwest CONUS, and there is strong ensemble clustering towards this general pattern.
The subtropical ridge, extending across the Gulf of Mexico, will become a bit more dominant tomorrow. Height rises will result in warmer temperatures with highs into the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Temperatures may tend to tank in some spots once again tonight if the sky clears for long enough, but lows are forecast to be a bit warmer than last night. Slightly drier/cooler air will begin to move in overnight. The work week begins with our FA on the back side of the recently departed mean long wave upper trof. We believe the high pressure subsidence will help keep pops silent then as well. By days 6-7 at the end of the work week, we see the high shift to the east and a veering of the flow in the lower trop, with light southerlies returning to the forecast for the first time all week.
the forecast area will be in between an upper level low pressure area over Iowa and an elongated upper level ridge extending from Texas into Montana. the upper level low slowly lifts away from the area with some disorganized upper ridging over the area.
308 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022 Early afternoon water vapor imagery shows a mostly stacked surface to upper level low over southwest Minnesota, with surface flow on the southwestern edge of the low largely coming from the west- northwest. For the rest of the day, the stacked low will be slowly moving eastwards as a ridge of high pressure develops out west, keeping us mostly cloudy through the morning hours. With a largely unchanged air mass overhead, afternoon highs will thus remain on the cooler side in the lower to upper 70s, though areas in central SD could sneak up into the lower 80s.
The low pressure system that had tropical origin appeared to maintain some form of a low level circulation as it tracked westward over the landmass of northern Mexico. It will be interesting to see how this deep convection over the Gulf evolves today and what influence it will have the low pressure system through early Saturday.
1259 PM EDT Fri Aug 19 2022 High pressure will dominate through the rest of today, allowing for quiet and seasonably warm conditions.
They will continue to move south and out of the region as the low tracks along the MN/SD boarder. Saturday, temps at 850mb are between 10 and 12 degrees C across the region, so a little warmer than today.
This time period contains a lot of uncertainty regarding specific impacts to areas north of the Red River, with trends favoring the highest rainfall across parts of North Texas. The cold front will begin to move into parts of northeast Oklahoma during the day Saturday, with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening along it.
However, no updates to pops were made at this point, with the consensus of guidance pointing toward the highest chances this afternoon and evening for locations nearer to the VA and TN borders. A broad upper level trough persisted over much of the CONUS east of the Rockies this morning, with a number of smaller circulations embedded in it. It is expected to move southeast to near the IL/WI border by late Saturday, becoming the main portion of the eastern CONUS trough.
An upper level low is centered over central MN early this morning. This low will track south through the day. The area of showers ongoing over central MN will trend to favor the western side of the low later this morning and then continue to rotate counterclockwise around it into IA this afternoon and evening.
1233 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022 Summary: A slow moving stacked low pressure system will cause more showers and thunderstorms today into this evening then it will move southeast tonight into Saturday with lower chances for showers/storms. Water vapor imagery this morning showed the upper low over central Minnesota and it's forecast to move slowly south today then east/southeast Saturday making it to southern Lake Michigan Saturday evening. Highs both today and Saturday will be in the lower to middle seventies.
Tonight and Saturday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show an upper level low pressure system spinning over southern Minnesota early this afternoon. The upper level low will move slowly south-southeast into Iowa. In general, precip chances will diminish during the late evening into the overnight hours though chances will remain highest over eastern WI where instability will be the highest. The upper low will continue to hang across the western Great Lakes. Highs in the low to mid 70s.
306 PM EDT Fri Aug 19 2022 Upper low continues to swirl over southwest MN as it slowly drifts southward. temperatures in the mid 70s to around 80 and dewpoints in the low/mid 60s. Instability will be best over the east tomorrow as slightly cooler/drier air begins to push into the west.
Moisture footprint tied to this low extends as far west as the SD/WY/MT border; however, deepest moisture and associated convection remain east of the Missouri River at this hour per WV/IR and day cloud phase RGB. Aside from SCT/BKN cu, it's a pleasant (to even chilly in some locations across the higher hills) mid-August day, with highs generally running 5-10 F below average. Aforementioned upper low will gradually shift south and east away from the area as it weakens over the next 24-48 hours. Primary feature of interest for our weather over the weekend becomes a building SW-NE-oriented mid-to-upper-level ridge extending from the Great Basin into the cntrl Rockies/Plains.
The latest surface analysis places a 1007mb low over southeast Minnesota with an attendant cold front extending southwest back into central Kansas.
They will continue to move south and out of the region as the low tracks along the MN/SD border. Saturday, temps at 850mb are between 10 and 12 degrees C across the region, so a little warmer than today.
1153 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022 (Rest of Today) Broad troughing continues this morning across the Tennessee Valley. However, water vapor imagery does indicate some drier air near and to the west of the trough axis.
Given the high cloud bases and dry lower levels, this activity has resulted in some 20-30 mph wind gusts at times. Given the lack of cloud cover across this area early in the day, instability has been building throughout northeast Kansas and northern Missouri this afternoon and is the most likely area to see strong to severe storms develop as the low drops southward into Iowa. The remainder of the weekend, and into the upcoming workweek, will remain dry with temperatures in the lower to mid 80s.
Lows tonight mostly range from the lower 70s inland to the mid/upper 70s at the immediate coast. Meanwhile, a broad upper trough over the eastern CONUS continues to amplify over the northern Great Plains and Midwest States as an upper low centered over southern Minnesota continues to dig south over northern Iowa through tonight and then southeast on Saturday. An upper ridge which extends from the western Atlantic to across the central Gulf meanwhile strengthens and expands through the period.
The passage of this low tonight and tomorrow will be the main show within this forecast period with conditions quieting down significantly in it's wake. In addition, more stratiform showers and storms will begin to track into northern Iowa with the low and it's associated cold front. Tomorrow's storms should pose less of a severe threat than this evening's, however funnel cloud development is again possible with sufficient instability in the low levels. These showers and storms will fester through most of the day but chances begin to diminish in the afternoon and evening as the low departs to the east.
Rain chances will shift farther north across mainly the Big Country tomorrow afternoon, as a short wave trough moves across the Texas Panhandle region. Temperatures tomorrow will be a bit below normal, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s.
Storm and shower chances will continue through the evening period as the upper closed low just sits over the eastern Great Lakes. While again we will see scattered convection the chance of severe storms is very limited with the upper low overhead limiting shear. Potential for storms and scattered showers will continue through the early evening before moisture in the low to mid levels decreases somewhat. However with forcing from the closed low continuing expect more isolated showers and potentially some drizzle continuing through the overnight.
In terms of temperatures expect highs in the upper 80s at the coast to the lower 90s inland. The upper-level trough is flattening as the axis continues to propagate to the northeast. At the same time, the subtropical ridge axis in the Atlantic is building back westward.
Otherwise, current forecast is on track with more showers and afternoon thunderstorms moving into south-central Idaho from the south late today, and also into the Boise Mountains and West Central Idaho Mountains as a Pacific upper trough moves past that area.
(This afternoon through Saturday night) Large upper low over MN covers most of the eastern half of the country in a broad trough while the sub tropical ridge extends in from the Atlantic up across TX northward along the Rockies to Canada. Weaker ridge, unstable, good moisture, daytime heating along with orographic lift creating favorable environment for additional storm development over/near the mountains.
Changes are gradually occurring as the persistent ridge of high pressure weakens and monsoonal moisture increases over the Northern Rockies.
310 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022 Stacked upper low in sw MN was beginning to spread large scale ascent across the cwa with thunderstorms developing in the instability and 30-35 kt bulk shear. Stacked upper low will track southeast into eastern IA with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. Large hail and damaging winds are the main risks but can't rule a tornado or two with the atmosphere rotating with the upper low overhead. lows tonight in the lower 60s with highs on Saturday in the mid to upper 70s.
A surface front/trough has pushed into north central Kansas with energy rounding the base of the trough aiding in additional development of showers and storms across south central Nebraska and northern Kansas. Destabilization has been limited by cloud debris and persistent showers and storms for much of the forecast area although some clearing has occurred between the outflow to the south and the cold front to the north.
- Cloudy and showery Saturday, especially near and south of I-90, and cooler than normal.
244 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022 Cold front slowly pushing south across the area today, but there is not a significant difference temperature ahead of or behind this feature.
(This evening through Saturday) Warm, quiet weather will continue a little bit longer through Friday afternoon and evening across the region, with temperatures continuing to climb into the low to mid 90s. Overall conditions begin to change on Saturday, as the overall large scale pattern of an upper level trough moving through Iowa/Illinois and an upper level ridge over the Southwest US begins to move eastward.
634 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022 Cold front slowly pushing south across the area today, but there is not a significant difference temperature ahead of or behind this feature.
819 PM EDT Fri Aug 19 2022 High pressure will provide mainly dry and fair weather through tonight.
Given the high cloud bases and dry lower levels, this activity has resulted in some 20-30 mph wind gusts at times. Given the lack of cloud cover across this area early in the day, instability has been building throughout northeast Kansas and northern Missouri this afternoon and is the most likely area to see strong to severe storms develop as the low drops southward into Iowa. The remainder of the weekend, and into the upcoming workweek, will remain dry with temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. Rain moves out early tomorrow morning and the cold front finally moves through.
559 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022 (This afternoon through Saturday night) Large upper low over MN covers most of the eastern half of the country in a broad trough while the sub tropical ridge extends in from the Atlantic up across TX northward along the Rockies to Canada. Weaker ridge, unstable, good moisture, daytime heating along with orographic lift creating favorable environment for additional storm development over/near the mountains.
643 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022 Early afternoon water vapor imagery shows a mostly stacked surface to upper level low over southwest Minnesota, with surface flow on the southwestern edge of the low largely coming from the west- northwest. For the rest of the day, the stacked low will be slowly moving eastwards as a ridge of high pressure develops out west, keeping us mostly cloudy through the morning hours. With a largely unchanged air mass overhead, afternoon highs will thus remain on the cooler side in the lower to upper 70s, though areas in central SD could sneak up into the lower 80s.
Surface cold front extending from central Iowa to southeast Nebraska has been the focus of thunderstorm development this afternoon. Other elevated boundaries north of the cold front have also been the focus for thunderstorm development, Some of these storms have produced hail to just over an inch in diameter.
654 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022 Stacked upper low in sw MN was beginning to spread large scale ascent across the cwa with thunderstorms developing in the instability and 30-35 kt bulk shear. Stacked upper low will track southeast into eastern IA with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. Large hail and damaging winds are the main risks but a tornado or two is possible with the atmosphere rotating with the upper low overhead. lows tonight in the lower 60s with highs on Saturday in the mid to upper 70s.
Surface cold front extending from central Iowa to southeast Nebraska has been the focus of thunderstorm development this afternoon. Other elevated boundaries north of the cold front have also been the fous for thunderstorm development, Some of these storms have produced hail to just over an inch in diameter.
A cold front is passing through southwest Kansas this evening. Instability is higher north of the front given the higher dewpoints, so it remains to be seen whether storms tap into the higher CAPE and produce very large hail. Drier and cooler air will move into western Kansas behind the front on Saturday, with minimal chances for t-storms.
749 PM EDT Fri Aug 19 2022 Upper low continues to swirl over southwest MN as it slowly drifts southward. temperatures in the mid 70s to around 80 and dewpoints in the low/mid 60s. Instability will be best over the east tomorrow as slightly cooler/drier air begins to push into the west.
Delayed convection will allow for greater daytime heating and afternoon highs warming into the lower/mid 90s for most areas with the sea breeze limiting immediate coastal highs from around 90 to the lower 90s. In terms of temperatures expect highs in the upper 80s at the coast to the lower 90s inland. The upper-level trough is flattening as the axis continues to propagate to the northeast. At the same time, the subtropical ridge axis in the Atlantic is building back westward.
1019 PM EDT Fri Aug 19 2022 Currently - A surface through lower level Atlantic ridge extends west southwestward across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. Short Term Update - The previously mentioned ridge will lift further north through the overnight period. This increased flow will ensure overnight lows, outside of convective influences, will be above normal in the lower to mid 80s. A ridge axis across Florid will lift further north overnight bringing about a slight increase in easterly breezes, becoming a gentle to moderate breeze.
Lows will be in the low to mid 70s, except in the upper 70s around the Orlando metro area.
522 PM EDT Fri Aug 19 2022 High pressure will provide mainly dry and fair weather through tonight.
1055 PM EDT Fri Aug 19 2022 High pressure will provide mainly dry and fair weather through tonight.
PW's won't be as high, diffluence aloft not as pronounced and the subtropical ridge should nose a bit further west into the area. 3") on the outskirts of the Potential Tropical Cyclone 4, currently in the Bay of Campeche, will begin making their way toward the coast late Saturday.
848 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022 Expect the night to remain relatively dry before the warm front advances north tomorrow, increasing rain chances for portions of northern Mississippi. The latest surface analysis places a 1007mb low over southeast Minnesota with an attendant cold front extending southwest back into central Kansas.
An upper trough and increasing onshore flow will bring cooler temperatures into Saturday.
721 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022 (This evening through Saturday) Warm, quiet weather will continue a little bit longer through Friday afternoon and evening across the region, with temperatures continuing to climb into the low to mid 90s. Overall conditions begin to change on Saturday, as the overall large scale pattern of an upper level trough moving through Iowa/Illinois and an upper level ridge over the Southwest US begins to move eastward.
633 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022 There could possibly be some impacts this evening if showers and thunderstorms end up training across an area, however, confidence in this is on the lower end. With the low pressure system spinning to our SE, showers and thunderstorms will continue to redevelop into the evening across SE North Dakota and W Central Minnesota. Large scale pattern will feature a deepening Hudson Bay upper low and strengthened monsoonal ridge across the southwest CONUS, and there is strong ensemble clustering towards this general pattern.
ridge will be drawing deep monsoonal moisture northward this weekend.
Temperatures are expected top out near 90F at most locations which is a degree or two cooler than normal. Lows tonight will continue to run several degrees warmer than normal in the lower 70s at most locations. /22/ Saturday night through Friday: An upper trough originating over the Great Lakes region is expected to swing through eastern CONUS towards at the beginning of the forecast period.
540 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022 Stacked upper low in sw MN was beginning to spread large scale ascent across the cwa with thunderstorms developing in the instability and 30-35 kt bulk shear. Stacked upper low will track southeast into eastern IA with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. Large hail and damaging winds are the main risks but a tornado or two is possible with the atmosphere rotating with the upper low overhead. lows tonight in the lower 60s with highs on Saturday in the mid to upper 70s.
Evening sounding from OHX gives us a CAPE of 1,766 J/kg and a Lifted Index of -5, so the instability is definitely there, and with a weak upper trough hovering over the mid state, believe there is enough impetus for the occasional cell to develop even during the overnight period.
204 AM MDT Sat Aug 20 2022 Upper ridge builds into the region this weekend with warmer temperatures and dry weather.
214 AM EDT Sat Aug 20 2022 High pressure will give way to a low pressure system on Saturday bringing increasing chances for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms at times through Sunday.
A stacked upper level low was slowly spinning overhead, producing clouds, showers and even a few thunderstorms.
the forecast area will be in between an upper level low pressure area over Iowa and an elongated upper level ridge extending from Texas into Montana. the upper level low slowly lifts away from the area with some disorganized upper ridging over the area. upper level ridging continues.
/issued 848 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022/ Expect the night to remain relatively dry before the warm front advances north tomorrow, increasing rain chances for portions of northern Mississippi. The latest surface analysis places a 1007mb low over southeast Minnesota with an attendant cold front extending southwest back into central Kansas.
On Saturday, the forecast area will remain between an amplified trough over the Mid-West and the SW to NE axis of a Bermuda High.
340 AM EDT Sat Aug 20 2022 Discussion/Marine Low pressure centered over Iowa is vertically stacked and weakening today, but with enough cold air in the mid levels it will support diurnally driven convection over Lower Michigan. As the low gradually migrates east through souther Michigan on Sunday, some warm air advected northward on its eastern side and slightly cooler air advected southward on its western side could act to reintensify the low just a little. Cooler mid to upper levels will remain supportive of scattered deep convection, first over Lake Michigan during diurnal minimum then over land later in the day.