Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today through Thursday) A subtle change in the pattern takes place in the short term as a weak inverted mid and upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico moves west into the Coastal Plains today and dampens inland over the Rio Grande Plains Thursday. Most areas unfortunately will remain dry and continued hot, although high temperatures today are forecast to be a degree or two cooler than previous days given the lower heights with the passage of the weakening inverted trough.
1141 PM EDT Tue Jul 26 2022 Light low level south-southwest winds will develop during the morning in response to an approaching sfc cold front and mid level trough.
245 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Hot high pressure has anchored itself over the western half of the CONUS. Jutting north out of this a ridge spur runs into British Columbia to the northeast a cooler low pressure system sits over the Hudson Bay.
Cooler temperatures by Thursday, and continuing through the upcoming weekend. Heat index readings will gradually cool back into the low to mid 90s by mid evening, however, an elevated fire weather risk will persist for a few hours as winds gust to 25 mph and relative humidity range from 25 to 35 percent. By Thursday, temperatures are expected to become cooler, temporarily ending the ongoing heat wave.
308 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022 A scattered line of showers and thunderstorms extends from near Buffalo WY to near Pine Ridge SD, with another scattered line further south from near Glenrock WY to Alliance NE. A Canadian cold front extends across central MT into northeast ND. A Canadian cold front will drop into northern NE later this afternoon as a fairly strong disturbance tracks from the panhandle into southwest and central NE this afternoon and evening. With cooler Canadian air drawn into the region, highs will range in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with partly sunny skies southwest and mostly sunny skies central and northeast.
However, an active resultant sea breeze front and inland trough will support widely scattered showers/thunderstorms again, especially during the afternoon. Ridging aloft will start to break down headed into the weekend owing to a more active pattern.
/TW/ Tonight and Wednesday: A broad ridge continues across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Most locations are currently in the low 90s with dewpoints in the 70s. Overnight lows will range from the low to mid 70s. The broad low amplitude ridge will hold steady across the Lower Mississippi River Valley on Wednesday. With the ridge in place, the heat and humidity will continue and issued a heat advisory for the same general area. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices in the 105-110 range across western portions of the forecast area.
However, additional showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop across MN later this afternoon as a cold front advances. Skies should become clearer from west to east overnight after the cold frontal passage. The upper low that has been affecting our weather will continue to slowly move off to the east on Thursday, as surface Canadian high pressure begins to slide into the Dakotas. With the cool dry air filtering into the region Thursday will be quite pleasant heat and humidity wise with highs in the 70s and dewpoints mainly in the lower 50s.
Upper air pattern consists of a closed 500 mb low over Ontario with a trough across the upper Great Lakes 00z tonight. This low heads slowly east and the final trough axis moves across the area on Fri before moving to New England Fri night. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a broad 500 mb ridge across the southern half of the U. 12z Sat with troughing across New England. Troughing moves into the northern plains 12z Sun and into the Upper Great Lakes 12z Mon. Ridging builds into the Rockies 12z Tue.
221 AM EDT Wed Jul 27 2022 Skies will remain mostly cloudy overnight with lows in the lower to middle 60s.
This and a better surge of cooler air should push the front farther south into Oklahoma on Thursday.
339 AM EDT Wed Jul 27 2022 Weak high pressure shifts offshore as a frontal system approaches tonight.
1235 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022 Summary: A cool week ahead with several cold fronts bringing showers and thunderstorms for the first half of the week. A cold front is moving through the Northland today. 5â will support healthy rainfall totals with whatever convection continues with the cold front this evening. After the cold front passes, it appears fog may be a threat overnight as saturated soils with clearing skies should generate a good environment for fog. A weaker cold front will cross Wednesday for more shower activity, but most of that should be north of Highway 2. High pressure builds for the latter half of the week giving quiet weather.
The low level jet is aiding a touch, but from latest mesoscale guidance, actually seems to be rather divergent into the region. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is anticipated later tonight as another 500mb open short wave rotates southeastward into the region riding the base of the larger trough that remains centered over western Ontario. After Thursday, relatively dry conditions should settle in as high pressure builds across the region on the heels of the exiting upper trough.
353 AM EDT Wed Jul 27 2022 A low level trough which brought unsettled weather yesterday, moved west of the Keys last night. Over the last several hours, the activity has begun to wane due to the low level trough moving west of the region and drier air moving in from the east.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): A weak inverted 500mb trough swings under the ridge and into Deep South Texas today. Additional streamer or seabreeze activity is possible Thursday, but a little less likely as high pressure strengthens along the lower Texas coast. Temperatures may top off a degree or two cooler today with more clouds and any showers or storms, but bump right back up Thursday.
/Issued 1249 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022/ /Through Thursday/ Little change in our weather pattern is expected in the short- term, with hot and dry late-July weather continuing beneath a persistent mid-level ridge.
445 AM EDT Wed Jul 27 2022 High pressure will be in place across the area through the period, with the ridge axis meandering a bit across the northern half of Florida through the period.
1236 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022 (This evening through Wednesday Night) Very hot and humid conditions continue as upper ridging remains across the region today. Decided to extend our current Heat Advisory through the overnight period and into tomorrow evening, as upper ridging will keep hot and humid conditions across the region. However, the ridge is expected to expand more into the Southern Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, which should limit the northern extent of the precipitation.
1206 AM EDT Wed Jul 27 2022 After some early morning patchy fog downstream of the Bay of Green Bay and the interior west, focus turns west to an approaching cold front. Forecast for near to below normal temperatures remains on track for the next couple days as an upper level trough tracks across the area. A few rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out, but it seems isolated/unlikely behind the initial cold front.
322 AM EDT Wed Jul 27 2022 After some early morning patchy fog downstream of the Bay of Green Bay and the interior west, focus turns west to an approaching cold front. Upper air pattern consists of a closed 500 mb low over Ontario with a trough across the upper Great Lakes 00z tonight. This low heads slowly east and the final trough axis moves across the area on Fri before moving to New England Fri night. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a broad 500 mb ridge across the southern half of the U. 12z Sat with troughing across New England. Troughing moves into the northern plains 12z Sun and into the Upper Great Lakes 12z Mon. Ridging builds into the Rockies 12z Tue.
1042 PM MDT Tue Jul 26 2022 Latest analysis shows an upper low centered over northern Manitoba. Northwesterly flow aloft will continue through much of the week as the upper low stalls out to the north of the Great Lakes. As the eastern trough weakens, the western CONUS upper ridge will break down, allowing the hot airmass to spread back over the plains.
Upper low pressure over Manitoba/Ontario will continue churn in a somewhat stationary fashion through the period. Cooler air will continue to filter into the region leading to moderately below average temperatures Wednesday with highs topping out in the upper 60s north central to the mid 70s south. A few of the area's traditionally cooler spots may reach near 40.
An isolated shower can be expected in the High Plains region overnight. /ISSUED 600 PM MDT Tue Jul 26 2022/ An upper level ridge has built in over our region today bringing mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies.
However, given the stable airmass ahead of these elevated and shallow storms, they are struggling to mix down stronger winds, especially as they push away from the higher instability, which is pretty meager at best with MLCAPE around 500 J/kg. A period of some waa arrives overnight with thermal ridge axis extending into the area.
Cooler than average high temperatures will also be a result of this pattern.
559 AM EDT Wed Jul 27 2022 Weak high pressure shifts offshore as a frontal system approaches tonight.
628 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022 Overview: Cyclonic flow aloft will persist over the Northern Plains and Upper MS River Valley (> ~40N) -- bounded by ridging to the south (a west-east oriented ridge extending from TX to the Southeast Coast) and west (a north-south oriented ridge extending from the PAC NW to the Desert Southwest) -- with the Tri-State area situated near the southern periphery of the mid-latitude westerlies.
A weak cold front sits draped over northern WI into southeastern MN early this morning, essentially a moisture boundary as dewpoints in western WI are in the low-mid 60s while dewpoints in central-southern MN are in the mid-upper 50s. As the front exits to the east later this morning, the low level moisture will become further scoured out, resulting in plenty of sunshine from late morning through most of the afternoon. High pressure will then slide in from the east Thursday morning, setting up shop for the rest of the day Thursday, producing a very comfortable day. Highs today in the upper 70s to lower 80s will drop to the low-mid 70s on Thursday.
Cooler temperatures are expected for Thursday through the weekend. Beyond the weekend, unfortunately it looks like upper level ridging will build back over the area with hot weather returning. Convection will fade later in the morning as the low level flow veers and weakens.
1039 AM EDT Wed Jul 27 2022 Weak high pressure shifts offshore as a frontal system approaches tonight.
Boundary layer moisture pooling ahead of warm front approaching from the Ohio Valley and weak surface heating will lead to an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, most likely over the southwest part of the forecast area. However, expect scattered to numerous showers to continue to overspread the rest of central Pa in association with isentropic lift ahead of the advancing warm front. It will be a warmer and more humid day/night with maxes & mins running about +5-10F warmer vs.
Today and Tonight: A mid to upper level ridge will prevail from the southern CONUS through the Pacific Northwest with weak troughing along the CA coast. Low level ridging will prevail over much of the eastern Pacific with lower pressures across the Great Basin and Southern Plains. Lows tonight will dip into the 50s in the lower elevations with 60s in the hills.
625 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022 (Today through Thursday) A subtle change in the pattern takes place in the short term as a weak inverted mid and upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico moves west into the Coastal Plains today and dampens inland over the Rio Grande Plains Thursday. Most areas unfortunately will remain dry and continued hot, although high temperatures today are forecast to be a degree or two cooler than previous days given the lower heights with the passage of the weakening inverted trough.
High pressure building to the west will slowly increase heights over the next couple of days, allowing for temperatures to warm by a few degrees each day. STP High pressure building over the Northern Rockies will bring warming temperatures into the weekend and beyond.
/issued 353 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): A weak inverted 500mb trough swings under the ridge and into Deep South Texas today. Additional streamer or seabreeze activity is possible Thursday, but a little less likely as high pressure strengthens along the lower Texas coast. Temperatures may top off a degree or two cooler today with more clouds and any showers or storms, but bump right back up Thursday.
Atlantic high pressure continues to ridge westward over Florida keeping a predominant ESE wind flow over the region. Daytime highs will top out in the low to mid 90s with heat indices around 104-108 degrees. High pressure ridging across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico will keep a SE wind flow over the eastern gulf waters with sea breezes turning winds onshore near the coast each afternoon.
There will likely be an area of showers (isolated thunderstorms?) with the primary cold front early this evening. The main trough axis and jet streak will pivot through the Great Lakes region late tonight and early Thursday bringing additional chances for light rain early in the day with a cold front.
49 (Today through Thursday afternoon) The subtropical ridge is now fractured with an anticyclone across the NW CONUS and another forecast to be centered INVOF LBB today. Storm potential remains confined to the wrn areas in proximity to the mid-level theta-e ridge. Aforementioned described pattern doesn't change much on Thu, heights decrease slightly, theta-e ridge farther w (less precip across the far w), and high temps will trend down a couple degrees (still 2-5 degrees above normal).
(Today) A cold front/ouflow boundary has sagged south into northeast Oklahoma early this morning, and will continue sagging south to near or a bit south of the Highway 412 corridor through sunrise, before lifting back to the north later this morning.
A weak thermal inversion is also evident at 925 mb relative to the 00z sounding counterpart, evident of low- level ridging building in behind a departing inverted trough that brought the unsettled weather over the past twenty- four hours.
Slight chance for isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms across the High Sierra south of Highway 50. Areas under cloud cover over the northern Sierra and southern Cascades as well as the northern Sacramento Valley further from the cooling influence of the Delta are several degrees warmer in the 60s to 70s with the mountains reporting temperatures 5-10 degrees warmer than this time 24 hours ago. Ensembles are in good agreement high pressure over the West will build northward leading to increasing temperatures for far northern California. Today temperatures start to trend warmer with highs forecast to increase a few degrees from yesterdays highs.
Monsoon moisture remains across the Desert Southwest through the week, fueling chances for showers and thunderstorms each day, particularly favoring the higher terrain. The high humidity will help hold temperatures down, especially in areas where rain occurs. An inverted trough lying across Arizona will not move much at all the next two days as its sandwiched between an area of high pressure over Texas and another over northern California/western Nevada. Increasing northeast winds around the high center over southwest Utah and southeast Nevada develops a region of stronger shear.
743 AM EDT Wed Jul 27 2022 Weak high pressure shifts offshore as a frontal system approaches tonight.
Barnes Previous Discussion: /Through Thursday/ Little change in our weather pattern is expected in the short- term, with hot and dry late-July weather continuing beneath a persistent mid-level ridge.
Hot temperatures remain the main story this week as a ridge of high pressure solidly builds into the Pacific Northwest. The low elevations of north-central Idaho are expected to have widespread highs in the 100s this afternoon. Monsoon moisture is slowly building northward into the ridge, and is expected to cause thunderstorms on Thursday.
A previously dry ridge continues to get 'dirtied' as moisture from the four corners region is pulled into the area.
609 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022 (Today) A cold front/ouflow boundary has sagged south into northeast Oklahoma early this morning, and will continue sagging south to near or a bit south of the Highway 412 corridor through sunrise, before lifting back to the north later this morning.
Upper air pattern consists of a closed 500 mb low over Ontario with a trough across the upper Great Lakes 00z tonight. This low heads slowly east and the final trough axis moves across the area on Fri before moving to New England Fri night. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a broad 500 mb ridge across the southern half of the U. 12z Sat with troughing across New England. Troughing moves into the northern plains 12z Sun and into the Upper Great Lakes 12z Mon. Ridging builds into the Rockies 12z Tue. Main area of showers along cold front has cleared the TAF sites this morning.
445 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022 Current surface map places high pressure across the Northern Plains.
631 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022 A scattered line of showers and thunderstorms extends from near Buffalo WY to near Pine Ridge SD, with another scattered line further south from near Glenrock WY to Alliance NE. A Canadian cold front extends across central MT into northeast ND. A Canadian cold front will drop into northern NE later this afternoon as a fairly strong disturbance tracks from the panhandle into southwest and central NE this afternoon and evening. With cooler Canadian air drawn into the region, highs will range in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with partly sunny skies southwest and mostly sunny skies central and northeast.
Overview: Cyclonic flow aloft will persist over the Northern Plains and Upper MS River Valley (> ~40N) -- bounded by ridging to the south (a west-east oriented ridge extending from TX to the Southeast Coast) and west (a north-south oriented ridge extending from the PAC NW to the Desert Southwest) -- with the Tri-State area situated near the southern periphery of the mid-latitude westerlies.
519 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022 Overview: Cyclonic flow aloft will persist over the Northern Plains and Upper MS River Valley (> ~40N) -- bounded by ridging to the south (a west-east oriented ridge extending from TX to the Southeast Coast) and west (a north-south oriented ridge extending from the PAC NW to the Desert Southwest) -- with the Tri-State area situated near the southern periphery of the mid-latitude westerlies.
The forecast area will mainly be influenced by the subtropical mid/upper high centered off the SC coast which will suppress rainfall chances.
Broad upper level ridging will remain in place across the area on Thursday. 850 mb temperatures will be a touch cooler, but afternoon highs will still climb into the upper 90s to lower 100s.
This trough is what will fire storms later today. The severe threat currently appears lower as we'll be behind storm outflow/a front and in the cooler airmass, but the setup does favor some heavier rainfall.
These line are from the cold front that is currently crossing Lake Michigan. Cooler with Scattered Showers. An upper level trough will be centered across southeast Canada through the short term. Nothing widespread or heavy is expected with only relatively brief scattered light rain showers across areas closer to the trough (eastern upper and far northern lower).
A better chance for thunderstorms will arrive on Thursday as a cold front drops southward through the region. Will also be keeping an eye on a cold front dropping southeastward toward the Illinois River. As the cold front sags southward, scattered showers/storms will develop on Thursday.
Cooler temperatures are expected for Thursday through the weekend. Beyond the weekend, unfortunately it looks like upper level ridging will build back over the area with hot weather returning. Think WPC and large scale model QPF is too broad brushed and that the higher end of the storm total rainfall amounts of 4-6" will be much more isolated than shown.
GOES water vapor imagery this afternoon continues to show the broad trough across much of the central CONUS that is slowly pushing eastward and west-northwesterly flow aloft. In its wake, cooler temperatures continue to work their way southward while the area enjoys a comfortable summer afternoon with highs in the mid-to- upper 80s and dewpoints in the 50s to just over 60.
(This evening through Thursday) A cold front has established itself in northern Oklahoma with cooler temperatures and light northeast winds behind it.
The inverted trough over the CWA provided enough moisture, lift, and instability to enhance the seabreeze right around 11 AM CDT this morning. Ridge dominates for Thursday with subsidence taking over again. Temperatures will stay in the lower 90s today thanks to the cloud cover. Thursday will be slightly warmer with temperatures in the upper 90s to lower 100s out west with breezy southeast winds once again.
High pressure building to the west will slowly increase heights over the next couple of days, allowing for temperatures to warm by a few degrees each day.
High pressure continues to keep temperatures above normal, with Midland In'l forecasted to hit triple digits today. Thursday will be a degree or two cooler than this afternoon as the ridge moves further west and thickness decreases. As for precipitation chances, storms will develop in the afternoon hours mainly across the higher terrain.
Temps overnight should drop to fairly chilly readings thanks to the cold and dry air advection we have been getting, down into the low 50s. Cool air mass remains in place and most of the highs should be in the 70s, with maybe a few upper 60s in lakes country where there will be more clouds. Any showers and weak thunderstorms should dissipate quickly Thursday evening and temps will again fall into the low 50s. A change to the pattern is forecast as the upper level low shifts east across the Canadian provinces and ridge amplification begins.
In terms of the temperature forecast, today will be cooler than the last couple of days due to a weakness in the ridge pattern and some cloud cover aloft. NBM guidance is showing a warming trend after today as the ridge strengthens over the area.
1145 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022 Current surface map places high pressure across the Northern Plains.
1255 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022 (Today through Thursday) A subtle change in the pattern takes place in the short term as a weak inverted mid and upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico moves west into the Coastal Plains today and dampens inland over the Rio Grande Plains Thursday. Most areas unfortunately will remain dry and continued hot, although high temperatures today are forecast to be a degree or two cooler than previous days given the lower heights with the passage of the weakening inverted trough.
Upper air pattern consists of a closed 500 mb low over Ontario with a trough across the upper Great Lakes 00z tonight. This low heads slowly east and the final trough axis moves across the area on Fri before moving to New England Fri night. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a broad 500 mb ridge across the southern half of the U. 12z Sat with troughing across New England. Troughing moves into the northern plains 12z Sun and into the Upper Great Lakes 12z Mon. Ridging builds into the Rockies 12z Tue. Only once we get into the overnight period when a cold front passes through the area that conditions return to MVFR across the UP.