Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THESE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
550 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT. WINDS LIKELY TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN AREAS AS IS.
136 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BRIEF BREAK IS TAKING PLACE BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES PLACE. THIS INITIAL PUSH IN PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED TO BE RAIN WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THINK THE BULK OF THE SNOW THAT FALLS IN THE RIDGES WILL BE FROM THE NW FLOW AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE EAST. AND ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A RIDGE BULDS OVERHEAD.
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY.
1044 AM PDT FRI APR 8 2016 Strong high pressure over the region will bring dry conditions and temperatures more common of May or June.
TEMPERATURES WERE UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S SOUTH. WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTH AND TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. WET OR TREATED ROADS COULD BECOME ICY AS TEMPERATURES DROP WELL BELOW FREEZING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE STATE.
On Saturday, a weak weather system will introduce a chance for showers and possibly a thunderstorm mainly across Lemhi County Idaho and across the higher terrain of southwest Montana.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEEPEN AS IT CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT.
NW winds stay gusty into this evening then diminish overnight as 1031 mb Canadian high pressure over Sasketchewan drifts into IA/MO by dawn Saturday morning.
212 PM PDT FRI APR 8 2016 High pressure will be briefly sullied by a cold front tonight into Saturday, but the threat of precipitation will be limited.
327 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH TOMORROW KICKING WINDS UP AGAIN.
318 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 18Z SFC DATA HAS A COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM SOUTHERN MICHIGAN INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
254 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS RATHER CHILLY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY AS WELL. AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE COLD/DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS IS REPLACED BY A MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT BUILDS FROM THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS.
249 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY.
THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE INTO THE EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY WORK BACK INTO THE STATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
A LATE WINTER LIKE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. LATEST AVAILABLE LAND AND MARINE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS DETAIL AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT FROM A 985 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC TO ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. SKIES ARE SUNNY ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LOWER KEYS AND ALL SURROUNDING WATERS. EXCEPT PARTLY CLOUDY RIGHT OVER THE LOWER KEYS OWING TO A VERTICALLY CHALLENGED CLOUD LINE BROUGHT ON BY STRONG APRIL INSOLATION AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS HAVE REACHED AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH TOLERABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
342 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 (Tonight and Saturday) Currently, an upper level low off the west coast is moving east/southeast toward southern California. So, will show Likely PoPs for these areas tomorrow morning, although rainfall amounts are expected relatively modest with the highest totals near one quarter of an inch.
242 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 COLD UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
WILL NOT HAVE ANY HEADLINES WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. HAVE STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST DEPENDING ON TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF WARMER AIR.
158 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES SEEN IN OBS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WEST OF I-65 WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS OCCURRING.
S/W RIDGING AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL USHER IN A MILDER AIR MASS TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE LOWEST RHS ARE JUXTAPOSED WITH DECREASING WINDS OUT WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. AND IN THE EAST DEWPOINTS REMAIN A LITTLE HIGHER WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
244 PM MDT FRI APR 8 2016 MUCH OF COLORADO IS UNDER WEAK RIDGE ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON WHILE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A PIECE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE WILL EJECT ACROSS COLORADO ON SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY. LOOKS LIKE EMPHASIS WILL BE ON SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA AND PALMER DIVIDE AND WILL HAVE THE HIGHER POPS THERE.
South winds/warmer temps return by Saturday. and at least low chances of showers/storms are warranted by Saturday night as the low-level jet increases.
124 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DECREASE ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. WATCHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN ND AND WESTERN MINNESOTA QUICKLY DROP SOUTHWARD. AREAS ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE MAY SEE A QUICK BURST OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH MID-MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BACK INTO THE FCST AREA REACHING KONL-KANW OVERNIGHT AND THEN RETREATING EAST SATURDAY. VERTICAL MIXING WILL HOPEFULLY TAP THE WARMER AIR ALOFT FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CNTL DAKOTAS.
351 AM CST TUE JAN 19 2016 (Today and Tonight) Warm today, with a cold front moving through the area tonight. An upper level trough is currently moving east through CO and the Four Corners region. This trough as helped winds pick up across our area. As a result the inversion was broken here at KSJT around 3 AM, sending temperatures from the lower 30s into the upper 40s in a short period of time. The upper level trough will move across our area today, with the axis moving east of west central Texas by this evening. Winds will continue to be breezy through this afternoon, and be mainly southwest resulting in much warmer temperatures. The cold front should make its way to near the I-20 corridor by around 6 PM this evening, shifting winds from southwest to the north.
1142 PM CST MON JAN 18 2016 STATUS HAS CONTINUED TO POSE ISSUES THIS AFTERNOON AS IT LINGERS ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS. DECENT BUST POTENTIAL IF CLEARING DOES OCCUR FARTHER EAST AND UNDERNEATH THE RIDGING. WIND CHILLS WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY BUT WITH THE RIDGE NEARBY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST, LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND ON TUESDAY.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST TONIGHT TO JUST SLIGHTLY ADJUST THE LOWS DOWNWARD. A FEW OF THE MORE ISOLATED COOLER SPOTS WILL COME IN NEAR 10 DEGREES IF NOT COOLER IN THE NORTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE OUR WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. THE PARTIAL BLOCKING PATTERN LIMITING THE ENERGY SPLITTING INTO LOWER LATITUDES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. THE 2 PHASES OF THAT FOR OUR AREA ARE A DIRTY RIDGE ALTERNATING WITH A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED WEAK IMPULSES.
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT IN REGARDS TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THERMAL PROFILES. WITH SOME LOCATIONS NOT GETTING ABOVE FREEZING. AS A RESULT DO EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RETURN RATHER QUICKLY AND PRODUCE CLOUDY SKIES AND AREAS OF FREEZING FOG IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD SURGE AND ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH THE HIGHEST IN THE NORTH AND EAST.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR CONTINUED DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
211 AM MST TUE JAN 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL FLUCTUATE IN STRENGTH BUT KEEP WEATHER SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH OF ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE HAD NO PROBLEM FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 40S AS OF 09Z. THE WEAK TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL APPROACH ARIZONA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS BUT NEARLY ALL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE EXTREMELY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS /SFC-700MB/. SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS COULD POSSIBLY SEE A SPRINKLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME THIS DRY LAYER ACROSS THE DESERTS.
/ISSUED 337 PM CST MON JAN 18 2016/ LOW CLOUDINESS AND FREEZING FOG OR FOG FINALLY CLEARING OUT BUT STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES BY THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FREEZING FOG COULD POSSIBLY REDEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER TROUGH TO PUSH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TUESDAY WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY. FRONT SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY RESIDUAL FOG OR FREEZING FOG BY 18Z TUESDAY.
1140 PM CST MON JAN 18 2016 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 912 PM CST MON JAN 18 2016/ ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION OF N-MN TO THE MID SOUTH CONTROLLED OUR GENERAL WEATHER SITUATION. THIS HIGH WAS HELPING TO BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THIS WINTER SEASON THUS FAR ACROSS THE ALL OF THE EASTERN STATES. A COLD UPPER LOW FROM EASTERN CANADA TO THE ST LAWRENCE SEAWAY (WITH 500MB TEMPS DOWN TO -40C ACROSS N-PA. WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING FURTHER AWAY AND THE COLD ANTICYCLONE NEARING.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIME TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE PLAINS. /ISSUED 947 PM CST MON JAN 18 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING OVER SE TEXAS THIS EVENING AND SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT. LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO IN TURN BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. 26 5 28 0 41 THE HIGHEST NUMBER OF NEW RECORDS WERE HIGH MIM TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY HIGH MAX TEMPERATURES. YOU COULD SAY THAT 41 MORNINGS HAD LOW TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE THE HIGHEST ON RECORD. AND THAT 28 AFTERNOONS EXPERIENCED THE HIGHEST DAYTIME HIGHS ON RECORD.
AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO THE MT/ND BORDER AND SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING WERE ALREADY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 IN THE FAR WEST WHILE TEMPERATURES IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND THE JAMES VALLEY WERE AROUND ZERO. AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 30S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. TO THE LOWER TEENS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREA AND THE JAMES VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE OUR WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.
400 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN MARITIMES TODAY THROUGH WED.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL EJECT SEVERAL SHORT WAVES THAT WILL PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ESPECIALLY WHEN A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE USUAL AREAS VULNERABLE TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.
QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS A SHORT UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A LITTLE COOLER TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH HAS PASSED ACROSS THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL BELOW FREEZING THIS MORNING AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WITH A 925 MB RIDGE TO OUR WEST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. BUT LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY FALL BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS THICKEN.
302 AM CST TUE JAN 19 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED FROM THE 4-CORNERS TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE EAST TODAY REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SWD TO THE NRN ZONES BY NOON AND WELL SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA BY END OF DAY. WILL FAVOR WARMER END OF MOS TEMPS GIVEN A PERIOD OF DOWNSLOPE AHEAD OF AND IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT.
319 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/PV TAIL DESCENDING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH EXCELLENT SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TAKING PLACE TODAY.
SOME MTN TOP OBSCD ACCOMPANIED WITH SOME -SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
1236 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AREA WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TODAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD. THE COLUMN IN GENERAL IS MUCH DRIER WITH A DECENT DRY LAYER 3-4KFT DEEP IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
RIGHT NOW KEPT MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I 29 WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT DEEPER. THEREFORE EXPECTING LOWS NOT MUCH COOLER THEN TODAYS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
1150 PM CST MON JAN 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST AT 2030Z. A SFC TROF WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS TROF ALONG WITH PRONOUNCED WIND SHEAR AND DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE LAKE. THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN CHARGE THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. THE HIGH IS STILL NEARBY BUT WEAKENING.
Areas of drizzle or freezing drizzle still expected into Tuesday afternoon across NE OK, spreading into NW AR Tuesday evening with IFR conditions likely. increasing surface moisture will help to keep temps warmer compared to last night. Cooler temps remaining over Northeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas will allow for the onset of precip Tuesday afternoon/evening to be potentially a wintry mix of rain/freezing rain.
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO COLORADO. TEMPERATURES MAINLY RANGED IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
259 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. THE HIGH WILL BE IN VERY CLOSE PROXIMITY TONIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH JUST ABOUT EXITING THE REGION BY 06Z TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL LIKELY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST PEOPLE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SLATED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
1110 PM EST MON JAN 18 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY.
342 AM CST TUE JAN 19 2016 SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL OK AS DEWPTS INCREASE SOME AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ALSO BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER BONE-CHILLING NIGHT OUT THERE TONIGHT WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW TO TEENS BELOW ZERO AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED DIRECTLY N/S ACROSS THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID- LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND HIGH PLAINS OF WY/CO. LATEST DETERMINISTIC/MESO MODEL RUNS BRING THE TROUGH EASTWARD INTO THE REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 67 82 62 85 / 50 40 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 64 81 60 81 / 50 30 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 65 81 59 82 / 50 40 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 63 80 55 78 / 60 30 10 10.
906 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING AND WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
COLD UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAD AN EXPANSIVE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S SOUTH TO THE UPPER 30S NORTH. AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
736 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
POSITIVE ASPECTS WILL BE SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR LATE AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAINING JUST BELOW FREEZING. FAR NW NEAR ESTHERVILLE MAY JUST TOUCH FREEZING.
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN REDUCE AFTERNOON COVERAGE.
DUE TO THE GROUND NEAR SATURATION AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION AND A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH COOLER AIR.
633 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015 FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE FREEZING TEMPS TONIGHT.
WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH COOLER WEATHER IN STORE BEGINNING TOMORROW NIGHT AS A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S IN OUR VALLEYS AND THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ALONG OUR RIDGES. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CREATE AND ENVIRONMENT SUITABLE FOR SUCH A RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL BE SUPPLIED BY THE A 110 KT JET ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL GENERATE CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME IMPACTS TO TRAVEL OVER THE HIGHER PASSES WITH ROADS LIKELY BECOMING ICY AND SNOWPACKED. MOISTURE GETS WRAPPED UP AROUND THE UPPER LOW (IN ALIGNMENT WITH QG ASCENT) THAT IS PROGGED TO BE OVER SALT LAKE CITY. 50/ IN MANY VALLEYS AND UPWARD TO 2 INCHES IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHWARD (AND SPLITS APART). THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE CARVES OUT A DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/BAJA COAST. A RIDGE AXIS ALIGNS ITSELF WITH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SPINE AND DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP.
THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM IS FAIRLY DYNAMIC WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LOW CENTER AROUND -20 DEGREES CELSIUS. LIGHTNING NETWORK IS CURRENTLY SHOWING A DECENT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW CENTER AND TO ITS NORTH. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AS UPPER LOW MOVES OFF THE FRONT RANGE/ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE LOWER 80S. THE POCKET OF CLOUDS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE NEARBY LIGHT SHOWERS LINGER IN THAT AREA.
PATTERN WILL CHANGE AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SERN CONUS AND ATLANTIC COAST BREAKS DOWN. THE CLOSED LOW THAT WAS OVER THE UPPER MS AND MN RIVER VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SUPPRESS/FLATTEN THE RIDGE. COMBINE THAT WITH THE WEAK IMPULSE CURRENTLY LEADING TO THE ACTIVITY ACROSS LA AND MS AND MID LVL HGHTS WILL BE A TAD LOWER/COOLER. WITH THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO SINK DOWN LATE WED/THU BEFORE FINALLY MIXING OUT. RIDGE SHOULD START TO REBUILD ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS AS A DEEP SYSTEM ALONG THE PAC COAST PUSHES INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND TWRDS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS RIDGE WILL QUICKLY WORK EAST BACK OVER THE SERN CONUS PUTTING THE REGION UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT.
SHORT TERM FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY A BRIEF AND NEEDED BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION AS SOUTH TEXAS SEES WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL ACTUALLY MOVE DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. CURRENT DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S UPSTREAM. SO LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S LIKELY AS DEW POINTS FALL TO NEAR 30 DEGREES OVERNIGHT.
COOLER AIR SHOULD REACH INTO OUR NW COUNTIES BY SUNRISE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN SE MO AND S IL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING THRU THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS.
829 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING.
Updated 855 PM EDT Mon May 18 2015 Almost all of the diurnal showers have faded this hour, but still have storms driven by the cold front over the Wabash. Cold front should be through the Ohio River before daybreak Tuesday and through the rest of the region by late morning. The cold front this afternoon stretches from Lake Michigan down through Illinois into southeast Missouri. Highs tomorrow will be cooler in the wake of the front, particularly across southern IN where temps look to top out near 70 in some places. Lows tomorrow night will be quite a bit cooler, dipping into the upper 40s to lower 50s.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THU WITH TEMPS CONTINUING A SLOW WARMING TREND.
NOT HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL AREAS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES HOWEVER MAINTAINED HEADLINES. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THU WITH TEMPS CONTINUING A SLOW WARMING TREND.
NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH. /ISSUED 410 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015/ A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM WEST TEXAS. OVERNIGHT THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SAG TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD NEAR THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER AS A WARM FRONT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT RANGING FROM NEAR 60 DEGREES IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POPPING UP ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED ALONG THE TN/MS BORDER BY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT MAY SPARK OFF A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER. COOLER.
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE FREEZING TEMPS TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
721 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM NW ONTARIO INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WITH THE LOW CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR CYQT. A TROUGH EXTENDED THROUGH NRN LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LOW PRES E OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS IS DUE TO THE AREA LARGELY BEING BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
/ISSUED 345 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015/ A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FORMED THIS AFTERNOON NEAR A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING AND SPREAD OUT INTO THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN BEFORE ENDING. UPDATE INCLUDED ADDING SOME SHOWERS TO THE LOWER BASIN THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OREGON WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT BUT REDEVELOPING AGAIN ON TUESDAY.