Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
At 08Z regional radars showed what appears to be precip in a zone of mid level deformation within the trough axis across NEB. The mid level trough and associated shear axis is progged to gradually move to the east and south along with a weak surface boundary. However given the high PWs and warm airmass, it would not take much for these slow moving storms to produce some good amounts of rain in a short period of time.
1030 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NE WITH THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN PLACE OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. E/SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA AND THE DISTURBANCE LIFTS NW. HIGHS ARE ON TRACK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
THE RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO DICTATE OUR CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN. WITH STRONG STACKED SFC/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES CONTINUING TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU AT LEAST 16/12Z.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC STILL ENTRENCHED, KEEPING THE WIND OUT OF THE EAST TODAY. /ISSUED 317 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015/ A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS RESULTING IN A EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
ALL THINGS CONSIDERED, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRES ALOFT WILL DEVELOP DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEK AS UPPER LOW MEANDERS SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH AND WLY/SWLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES.
BEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR THE DEVELOPING STORMS THIS AFTN WILL LIKELY OCCUR NORTH ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND SOUTH OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. THE WEAK COLD FRONT FROM LAST EVENING CAME THROUGH RATHER WIMPY AS SURFACE WINDS HAVE BECOME VARIABLE UNDER 10KT OVERNIGHT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP FOLLOWING LAST EVENINGS SURGES WITH DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS ALL OF THE PLAINS. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG A LINE NORTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE SW OF DENVER WITH THE HELP OF A POSSIBLE DENVER CYCLONE SET UP. EVEN WITH THE LACK OF DECENT SHEAR THE CYCLONE COULD HELP TO SPIN OFF A FEW STORMS THAT COULD RESULT IN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN WARM SUNNY WEATHER FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON AGAIN TODAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND MARINE AIR WILL PUSH INLAND FOR COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY WITH MORNING CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. WARMER WEATHER COULD RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. BETWEEN A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND A BROAD AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. A THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS NORTH-NORTHWEST FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY. MARINE STRATUS WILL PROBABLY COVER MOST OF THE LOWLANDS TUESDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER.
BY THE WEEKEND THE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BUCKLE AS MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA NOSING IN FROM THE SOUTH.
538 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2015 H5 FLOW REMAINS SOUTHERLY TODAY ACROSS SW COLORADO WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION PRESSURE OVER ARIZONA WHICH WILL ACTUALLY ALLOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT TODAY OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACH BACK UP TO 0. THE COLD FRONT HANGING JUST NORTH OF THE CO/WY BORDER HAS REMAINED STATIONARY ALL NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FRONT RANGE MORESO THAN THE WESTERN SLOPE TODAY. BARELY ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECASTERS SOLUTIONS THOUGH MOS GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO BRING TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE LOW VALLEYS ON TUESDAY. ANTICIPATING CLOUD COVER DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON SO KEPT WITH THE CURRENT THINKING ON THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE.
711 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO STILL BROAD BUT STILL PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR IT TO ORGANIZE BEFORE TUESDAY MORNING. GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS INDICATES THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR PORT O'CONNOR TUESDAY MORNING. MADE MODIFICATIONS TO THE WIND GRIDS TO SHOW THIS TRACK OF THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR GULF FACING BEACHES.
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF OF THE WEST COAST. MUCH OF THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING WITH A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY AND MAY HELP TO WEAKEN THE MARINE LAYER A BIT. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INLAND OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN A W-SW FLOW ALOFT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAINLY IN SE OREGON AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL COME IN FROM THE PACIFIC ON WESTERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT OUR CWA. A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY THEN LITTLE CHANGE TUESDAY.
800 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEK. PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WITH A SURFACE FRONT OSCILLATING OVER THE STATE. EARLY MORNING STABILITY WILL GIVE WAY TO DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION BY AFTN ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SPC CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING THE ENTIRE AREA FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR WX TUESDAY ASSOC WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. ALL MDL DATA INDICATING A PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND COLD FRONT SHOULD ENSURE A DRY TUES NIGHT AND WED AM. 00Z GEFS AND OPER MED RANGE MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THRU LATE THIS WEEK.
805 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEK. PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WITH A SURFACE FRONT OSCILLATING OVER THE STATE. EARLY MORNING STABILITY WILL GIVE WAY TO DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION BY AFTN ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SPC CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING THE ENTIRE AREA FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR WX TUESDAY ASSOC WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. ALL MDL DATA INDICATING A PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND COLD FRONT SHOULD ENSURE A DRY TUES NIGHT AND WED AM. 00Z GEFS AND OPER MED RANGE MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THRU LATE THIS WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GILA COUNTY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEK LEADING TO SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS.
1003 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
848 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 STRONG RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS INLAND NE AND NORTH-CENTRAL FL.
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH UPPER 90S IN MANY AREAS DUE TO THE CONSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 95 71 95 73 / 10 10 20 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 94 71 93 72 / 10 10 20 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 95 71 93 72 / 10 10 10 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 92 65 91 68 / 10 10 20 30.
WE ARE RIGHT SMACK DAB UNDERNEATH THE BIG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM THE EAST.
739 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 AVIATION MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT.
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THESE EARLY MORNING SHOWERS IS A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA A THE TROPICAL GULF LOW APPROACHES THE COASTAL REGIONS OF TEXAS.
FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NEXT 24 HOURS.
/ISSUED 419 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015/ HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA. A COLD FRONT HAS KEPT WINDS NORTHERLY AND ALLOWED HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. SURFACE FEATURES REMAIN SIMILAR WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AND HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA. A DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF THAT DOES NOT QUITE YET HAVE A CENTER OF CIRCULATION BUT IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE MODEL GUIDANCE IN THIS PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLR SKIES. DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TN VALLEY. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES STAYING JUST BELOW 100. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAINING BELOW CRITERIA. THE RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE DISTURBANCE FROM THE GULF MOVES UP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EVENING CONVECTION HAS BASICALLY SAGGED SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE TURNPIKE EAST OF PITTSBURGH WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE WEST OF PITTSBURGH AHEAD OF AN INCOMING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
EXPECT A DRY AND WARM WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
STACKED RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH MILD LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 1 AM. THE CONTINUED ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
BUT WE ARE MOIST ADVECTING UP THE HIGH PLAINS WITH PWAT TONGUE NOW APPROACHING AN INCH IN OUR SE. NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SEVERE TONIGHT BUT LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A WARMER DAY AS EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WEAKEN AND HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE.
CONVECTION ON THE WHOLE HAD DIFFICULTY BECOMING SFC BASED IN THE COOLER DAY 1 OF THE POST- FRONTAL AIR MASS. INITIAL LOOK AT 00Z DATA SUGGESTS TOMORROW TO BE ACTIVE AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT.
713 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
850MB JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ANALYSIS SUPPORTS FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO CROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLOODING OVER AREAS WHERE MUCH ACCUMULATION WAS OBSERVED THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST.
A weak upper level trough was located across northeast KS late this afternoon. a surface cold front extended from southeast NE, southwest to the east of Marysville, south-southwest to MHK, then south to ICT. A pre-frontal trough was located along the I-35 corridor from KC, southwest to east of EMP. Lows Tonight will drop into the lower 60s northwest to near 70 across the southeast counties.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP TO KEEP OUT SHOWERS AND CLOUDS, AND BRING LIGHT WINDS TO ALL SITES.
802 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
MAINLY HARNEY COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF BAKER COUNTY.
Afternoon high temperatures should be generally in the low to middle 80s for most areas through this week. A weak cold front will continue to sag southward passing the MO River this evening.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUED TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM THE WEST TODAY. AS SUCH THE ONLY CONVECTION AFFECTION OUR AREA WAS FOCUSED OVER FAR EAST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MAINLY EAST OF GLOBE WITH SUNNY SKIES ACROSS ALL OF THE LOWER DESERTS. H5 HEIGHTS ROSE TO AROUND 590DM OVER THE LOWER CENTRAL DESERTS AND UNDER SUNNY SKIES HIGH TEMP AT PHOENIX CLIMBED TO 112 DEGREES.
1008 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS UPPER TROF WEAKENS AND MOVES ESE ACROSS THE AREA AND H5 SHEAR AXIS BECOMES ALIGNED ALONG MASON DIXON LINE BY 00Z WED.
630 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA. COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN AND CLEARING SKIES.
900 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FIRING WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN AN ARC ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AS THE PERIOD STARTS.
STILL EXPECT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO BE DRY AREA WIDE WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW 70S ONCE AGAIN.
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. CURRENTLY THE RADAR IS VOID OF ANY ECHOES ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE HIGH HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS HOT AND DRY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
626 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 LOOKING LIKE A QUIET EVENING AHEAD AS DRYING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS MOVES IN AS HIGH PRESSURE DROP SOUTH THROUGH MINNESOTA. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
1048 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 LOOKING LIKE A QUIET EVENING AHEAD AS DRYING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS MOVES IN AS HIGH PRESSURE DROP SOUTH THROUGH MINNESOTA. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
PERIPHERAL MOISTURE FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE WILL COMBINE WITH FAVORED NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BRING NORTH TO SOUTH MOVING CELLS ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED BUT THE LOW STILL LACKS A WELL DEFINED CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO DRIFT NWWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AS IT IS BEING DRAWN AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH BY THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. ON WHERE THE LOW WILL COME ASHORE.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
INTERIOR VALLEY WILL COOL INTO THE 50S OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LOWER 60S FOR SOME OF THE WARMER SPOTS.
816 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS UPPER TROF WEAKENS AND MOVES ESE ACROSS THE AREA AND H5 SHEAR AXIS BECOMES ALIGNED ALONG MASON DIXON LINE BY 00Z WED.
A FRONT WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE N TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE TRI-STATE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO WASH OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS MORE CLOUDS ARE FORECASTED BUT HUMIDITY WILL STICK AROUND.
Afternoon high temperatures should be generally in the low to middle 80s for most areas through this week. A weak cold front has passed south of all the terminals and will likely stall across west central and central MO overnight.
THE LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT/NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS EVENING WILL ENTER NORTHWEST UTAH BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST GOOD FLYING WEATHER NEXT 24 HOURS AS BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
855 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 QUIET/MILD WX OVERNIGHT AS A HI PRES RIDGE BLANKETING THE DEEP SOUTH GENERATES A DEEP ERLY FLOW ACRS CENTRAL FL. THE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE GA/SC COAST. HI PRES RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE E/SE BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC OVERNIGHT.
1128 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS UPPER TROF WEAKENS AND MOVES ESE ACROSS THE AREA AND H5 SHEAR AXIS BECOMES ALIGNED ALONG MASON DIXON LINE BY 00Z WED.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED ON TUE FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
943 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND. THE REGION WILL REMAIN STRONGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING CENTERED OVERHEAD. COMPARING TEMPS LATE THIS EVENING WITH THOSE 24 HOURS PRIOR WE/RE RUNNING ON AVERAGE ABOUT 1-2F WARMER. THUS WE LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT MINS ABOUT 1-2F WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
IF TRENDS CONTINUE WITH THE LOW IN WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN INVEST AND HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP SOME STEADY STATE ONSHORE FLOW NEXT 24-36 HOURS. PRETTY MUCH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE REGION WITH PERSISTENCE ON TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS THE WIND GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST US AND THE TROPICAL WAVE /AL-91/ MOVES TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE HIGH MAKING UP THE REX BLOCK IN THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY THEN GRADUALLY MERGE WITH SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS RIDGE ON TUESDAY. STRONG ASCENT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING TODAY LEAVING ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION TO FORM ALONG THE RIDGETOPS.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS WITH A TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR GALVESTON AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR CWA WAS FAIRLY LOOSE WITH LIGHT WINDS TURNING FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS WILL ERODE THE RIDGE A BIT OVER OUR EASTERN AREA.
THEN TONIGHT THERE WILL ALSO BE A LINE OF STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
LONGWAVE TROUGH (CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN OHVLY) SPLITS INTO TWO PIECES OF ENERGY THIS EVENING. MUGGY TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID 70S ON THE COAST. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE COAST AND OFFSHORE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THIS DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS ALOFT.
MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE THAT A SUMMERTIME REGIME SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED AS RIDGING DEVELOPS WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED DAILY DURING PEAK HEATING. A THIRD AREA WILL BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM JUST NORTH OF CAPE GIRARDEAU TO FORT SMITH.
148 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
245 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BACK DOOR INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION LATE TONIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER US WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND POSITION ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST US BY THE END OF THE WEAK.
342 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015 UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES HAVE TRANSPIRED THROUGH THE DAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HAS LED TO CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AND WILL SUPPRESS QPF CHANCES OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL CONUS.
1229 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015 BASICALLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ENSURES A CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A DRY FORECAST. THANKS TO A TROUGH AXIS SLIDING TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE WRN CONUS. MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER CO. WHILE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS CANADA ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE LOWER END /10 TO 15 MPH/ AS THAT BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE FAR N/NW CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOWING 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS/GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT COULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN THAT.
3 AM TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S. WITH SUCH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. 75 INCHES WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S. AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER. A THIRD AREA WILL BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM JUST NORTH OF CAPE GIRARDEAU TO FORT SMITH.
1213 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015 THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PASSING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SHORT TERM IS FAIRLY QUIET WITH BREEZY /SLIGHT COOLER/ NORTHWEST FLOW GRADUALLY TURNING SOUTHWEST BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER MO VALLEY. WITH RIDGES CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN U. MODEL CONSENSUS PROGS THE RIDGE TO EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. PROMOTING GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER. TROPICAL STORM BLANCA OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES NORTH AND WEAKENS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND TRANSFORMING INTO A TROUGH LATE TUESDAY.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SCATTERED COVERAGE WHICH MAY BE CORRECT BECAUSE OF THE UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING AND H85 WIND SPEED DIVERGENCE. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDINESS AND MIXING. MOISTURE LINGERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT WITH H85 WESTERLY FLOW. LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS BASED ON THE SURFACE FEATURE AND UPPER TROUGHING. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAYED H5 RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH AN INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE.
238 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015 MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SCATTERED COVERAGE WHICH MAY BE CORRECT BECAUSE OF THE UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING AND H85 WIND SPEED DIVERGENCE. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDINESS AND MIXING. MOISTURE LINGERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT WITH H85 WESTERLY FLOW. LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS BASED ON THE SURFACE FEATURE AND UPPER TROUGHING. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAYED H5 RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH AN INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE.
WEAK H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOVER ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND NE MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS START TO CHANGE TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE GETS SHOVED TO THE WEST BY THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A LOBE FROM THE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO TX LATER TOMORROW. LESSENED RIDGING ALOFT AND WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE ONSHORE.
A COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.