Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure can be seen on analysis charts over western Tennessee with an upper-level ridge over the region - causing continued southerly flow. The pattern we've been stuck in will finally begin to breakdown on Thursday as the longwave pattern digs south over the eastern half of CONUS; this will allow a slow moving cold front to move into the area. A ridge to the east and a deepening trough over the region will cause the front to stall out over the the CWA through most of the weekend.
Temperatures will run near normal with highs around 90 to the lower 90s. High pressure to the northeast of the Gulf waters will maintain southeast winds around 10 knots with seas of 2 feet or less the remainder of today with an onshore sea breeze component developing near the coast during the afternoon.
Dewpoints yesterday afternoon were in the low to mid 70s F across north central into east central Oklahoma (e. As a mid-level trough digs across the Midwest, the attendant cold front will move into western Kansas later today.
Upper level trough will move across the area today and tonight exiting the region by Thursday morning. This will drive a rather strong cold front across the region this afternoon and evening.
A generally wet period is expected in the next 24 hours as a cold front moves south through the area intersecting a very moist conditionally unstable airmass.
High pressure over the region will result in continued warm and dry conditions Today before a slight cooling trend is expected for late week.
/issued 322 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019/ Upper ridging continues over the region today but it will be somewhat flattened by an upper trough moving over the Great Lakes region. This will result in cooler 850 mb temperatures over West Texas and southeast New Mexico which will allow for slightly cooler high temperatures today. Upper troughs continue to move over the northern half of the country on Thursday with westerly flow aloft over West Texas. Temperatures across the area are expected to be slightly cooler than those today.
407 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 A generally wet period is expected in the next 24 hours as a cold front moves south through the area intersecting a very moist conditionally unstable airmass.
As mentioned in previous discussions, we are sitting under a pretty expansive ridge whose center slowly drifts west from New Mexico. Through the remainder of the work week, this ridge is expected to push further westward, resulting in a continuation of above-average temperatures.
The high-res guidance now have the ongoing storms in the initialization for 6z+ runs. The concern for the highest precip amounts looks to be south and east of the forecast area. Pops/rain chances are quite expansive/high tonight and think they are a bit on the high side for south central Nebraska. Temperatures: Temperatures today are expected to be quite a bit cooler than yesterday. north central Kansas temperatures could be a bit on the low side.
However, the heat will be shortlived, as clouds increase ahead of a cold front this evening. Beneficial rainfall (and some embedded thunderstorms) along a cold front will sweep across the Northern Rockies this evening.
The axis of the subtropical ridge is located north of Central Florida allowing for E/SE low level wind flow. ) are subject to the highest rain chances at 40 percent, tapering back to 20 percent near the Atlantic Coast. In short, slightly warmer than normal temperatures today in the L/M90s, especially across the interior. Ridge axis remains north of the local waters.
A longwave trough should move into the Pacific Northwest later today. Ahead of this trough we are likely to see an increase in winds. As the trough.
328 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Heat indices have climbed above 105 degrees today in the Mid- South with high pressure dominating our area. By Thursday a trough from the Great Lakes will bring a cold front that will shift eastward toward the Appalachian mountains while sagging slowly south into our area.
Nudged up highs a tad as we should see mostly clear skies today underneath weak upper ridging. In fact, this upper ridging will likely keep our precip chances today on the low side, and mainly just along and north of I-40 where models show a few showers and storms later today (mainly this evening).
A low-pressure system moves eastward across the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin tonight and tomorrow. Relative humidities will increase overnight but will remain lower than average for mid-slope and ridge locations. Afternoon temperatures tomorrow will be cooler and close to normal, with highs around 90 for western NV valleys and in the 80s for most mountain communities.
213 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019 A cold front will drop south through the region into this evening, with chances for shower and thunderstorms along it.
A long wave upper trough just offshore is pushing a weak front onshore at this time. The upper level trough supporting this front will move through the CWA this later this afternoon and evening, and any lingering precipitation will end this evening. An upper level ridge will then build in from the southwest, and a thermal trough will develop near the coast.
High pressure over the region will result in continued hot and dry conditions today. A trough will move across the Northern Rockies Thursday with the associated cold front pushing into northern Utah Thursday morning then reaching central Utah by evening. A ridge of high pressure will prevail across the region today but there is a thin layer of moisture across central to northeast Utah that will bubble up into mainly shallow cumulus clouds, except over the Uintas where an isolated shower or thunderstorm could occur late this afternoon and evening. A cold front will move into northwest Utah Thursday morning and into central Utah by late afternoon which will lower temperatures by several degrees in the north but minimal change expected in central and southern Utah.
Across AL and GA convection is initiating along a convergent axis at the western periphery of surface ridging.
Elsewhere, slightly warmer temperatures and ridging aloft have kept a lid on showers and storms. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s, with localized areas of fog.
920 AM PDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Today will be the hottest day of the week with high pressure aloft over the southwest.
The difference today will be a late afternoon/evening cold frontal passage. Have gone with a wind advisory for this event highlighting the lower Treasure Valley and norhtern Malhuer county in Oregon and the Treasure Valley in Idaho.
232 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Above average temperatures under a broad ridge today will give way to a cool, rainy Thursday. This upper level trough slides across the Pacific Northwest and enters the northern Rockies early Thursday morning, bringing a cold front across the Idaho-Montana border. High temperatures Thursday will be about 15 F cooler than today. Showers begin across the northern Rockies behind the cold front and last into Thursday night. The higher terrain around Glacier National Park could also help keep precip lingering into Thursday night.
By Thursday a slow-moving cold front will move into the area and get hung up as it becomes parallel to the upper flow.
302 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Slightly drier air and weak subsidence are expected to continue today following the passage of a weak meso-low pressure system that is continuing to the northeast. Highs in the 90s expected this afternoon, with lows in the lower 70s tonight. Broad upper-level troughing will begin to get more zonal tomorrow with southwesterly low-level flow continuing to increase moisture in the region. 8" expected by tomorrow afternoon which will aid diurnally-driven convection, with the highest Pops expected over North Georgia. Highs in the 90s once again expected tomorrow afternoon, with lows in the lower 70s tomorrow night. BDL A moist and unstable air mass will continue under the flat ridge aloft. a broad trough moving across the Great Lakes this weekend should push a frontal boundary into GA.
Models this forecast cycle still present data which indicates the ridge aloft will continue to weaken, over the next 24 hours. Perhaps Cooler and Possible Rain. Models indicate the ridge aloft will continue to weaken, through the end of this work week. What's more, the center of the upper ridge will retrograde and finally begin to strengthen again, over California and Nevada, by the start of next work week. The bottom line of all this is West Central Texas may see slightly cooler temperatures by the middle of next work week.
1256 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 High pressure continues over Arkansas today. A cold front will continue to move through Missouri today and tonight and will be near the Arkansas and Missouri border by the end of the period. Today Through Thursday Night Ridge of high pressure over the central/southern Plains is finally going to relax around here and build a lot farther to the west. This is along/ahead of a cold front which will be inching its way to the south.
After a cool start, Thursday should be another nice, but cool, day with highs in the low to mid 70s under sunny skies and light winds.
Water vapor imagery shows an area of dry air advecting into the region underneath the descending branch of the trough. A trough dropping SE across the Great Lakes will push a cold front into the OH Valley Thursday night.
Fowler Temperatures across southeast Texas are currently in the mid to upper 80s and are expected to continue to rise up to the low to upper 90s this afternoon.
With a progressive meridional pattern across the CONUS, the mid- level ridge's influence over South Texas diminishes a bit more. Additionally, more moisture is progged to advect into the area as an inverted trough/weak tropical wave begins to push into the western Gulf of Mexico through Thursday.
Low clouds will keep overnight lows above normal in the low to mid 70s. Similar to today, sea breeze convection will quickly wane with loss of heating Thursday night with low clouds again keeping temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
This makes the forecast for storms a bit more complicated as none of the high-resolution models have any convection developing this afternoon but do have activity trying to push in from the northwest. Models continue to try and bring a weak cold front into the Texas Panhandle Thursday stalling out well north of our forecast area. Ridge looks to build back over the area for the end of the weekend with the ECMWF stronger than the GFS.
Water vapor shows an MCV across NE moving southeast toward the area while a diffuse upper low appears to be located across southwest NE western KS. the upper pattern is odd and features a highly amplified trough across the Great Lakes and northern Rockies with a ridge across the central plains.
The strongest winds are expected across the higher terrain of southwest North Dakota.
Thursday should remain dry across the area as the main upper level trough pushes off toward the east coast.
130 PM PDT Wed Aug 21 2019 High pressure over the southwest that brought the hot weather the past two days will weaken and drift east tonight.
255 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 An upper level wave in the right entrance region of the jet will shift southeast through the evening, allowing a ridge of cool high pressure at the surface to shift south. Along with clearing skies the lighter winds care of the high pressure will support a good radiational drop in temperatures tonight. Thursday should prove to be a very nice day as high pressure remains in place just east of the area.
305 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019 A cold front will drop south through the region into this evening, with chances for shower and thunderstorms along it.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the surface boundary across our north, especially as the low level jet strengthens overnight.
This would make sense with the expected cold front looking to align itself more meridionally and push through a bit slower. Bigelbach PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Upper ridging will help guide warm and dry conditions across northeast Montana today with large scale subsidence over the region. For Thursday, a cold front will sweep across the region, bringing with it increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms.
142 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019 A cold front will drop south through the region into this evening, with chances for shower and thunderstorms along it.
The atmosphere has stabilized behind this morning's MCS, and any storms that develop off the higher terrain to the west should struggle to survive as they move to the east toward our area. The humidity will tend to offset the cooler temperatures though as it will feel rather sticky.
229 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 There have been no significant changes to the previous forecast with weak upper ridging expected to remain over the region the next several days.
Meanwhile, high pressure continued to move into the forecast area and will eventually lead to clearing skies this evening, which could set the stage for some fog, especially in the river valleys. The trend for Thursday has been a bit cloudier and cooler than past forecasts, with models in decent agreement of some convergence along an inverted trough.
Surface cold front has moved south and west, settling along the Front Range, which will be where convection develops. As a result, trended towards cooler guidance for high temperatures on Thursday.
Lows tonight will generally be in the lower to middle 70s.
Along with the lower moisture levels, instability is also much weaker to non- existent across the state which is limiting convective potential.
A Bermuda ridge axis will be near the state border while there will be a lingering trough across Se Ga.
1040 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019 A warm front will cross the region overnight. A cold front will cross the area Thursday.
The cooler airmass in place on Thursday will result in quite a bit of diurnal CU redeveloping.
/issued 328 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019/ Heat indices have climbed above 105 degrees today in the Mid- South with high pressure dominating our area. By Thursday a trough from the Great Lakes will bring a cold front that will shift eastward toward the Appalachian mountains while sagging slowly south into our area.
725 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019 High pressure in the Atlantic will direct a moist, south flow into the forecast area through the rest of the workweek. By this weekend, an upper-level low will cross north of the area, helping to drag an associated cold front into the forecast area.
Nighttime low temps in the low to mid 70s, approaching upper 70s along the coast where warm minimum records lay at risk. (previous) The axis of the Subtropical Ridge remains north of the local waters with deep onshore flow across the entire area.
648 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 An upper level wave in the right entrance region of the jet will shift southeast through the evening, allowing a ridge of cool high pressure at the surface to shift south. Along with clearing skies the lighter winds care of the high pressure will support a good radiational drop in temperatures tonight. Thursday should prove to be a very nice day as high pressure remains in place just east of the area.
742 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019 A cold front will drop south through the region tonight with chances for showers and thunderstorms along it.
No changes were needed to temperatures that will bottom out near normal Thursday morning in the low to mid 70s. Lows tonight will generally be in the lower to middle 70s.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible for some areas, with the highest chances generally along and north of I-40 into tomorrow afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the surface boundary across our north, especially as the low level jet strengthens overnight.
421 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 A persistent pattern remains in place aloft with high pres from the SW into TX as well as acrs FL, with a general weakness in between these features acrs LA and the lower MS valley. At the sfc, high pres continues to ridge acrs the northern Gulf, with a light onshore flow maintaining an influx of low level moisture.
An upper level trough is currently located off the coast of the Pacific Northwest.
Kept temperatures at or above last nights values along and east of the Highway 83 corridor, with highest readings far west. The strongest winds are expected across the higher terrain of southwest North Dakota.
High pressure northwest of the Great lakes will slowly move over the area through Thursday night.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 92 73 86 / 20 30 30 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 89 70 84 / 30 50 40 70 Oak Ridge, TN 72 89 71 84 / 30 60 40 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 86 67 82 / 30 60 50 80.
Slightly drier air and weak subsidence are expected to continue today following the passage of a weak meso-low pressure system that is continuing to the northeast. Highs in the 90s expected this afternoon, with lows in the lower 70s tonight. Broad upper-level troughing will begin to get more zonal tomorrow with southwesterly low-level flow continuing to increase moisture in the region. 8" expected by tomorrow afternoon which will aid diurnally-driven convection, with the highest Pops expected over North Georgia. Highs in the 90s once again expected tomorrow afternoon, with lows in the lower 70s tomorrow night. BDL A moist and unstable air mass will continue under the flat ridge aloft. a broad trough moving across the Great Lakes this weekend should push a frontal boundary into GA.
1023 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019 High pressure in the Atlantic will direct a moist, south flow into the forecast area through the rest of the workweek. By this weekend, an upper-level low will cross north of the area, helping to drag an associated cold front into the forecast area. in the low to middle 70s.
A trough will move across the Northern Rockies Thursday with the associated cold front pushing into northern Utah Thursday morning then reaching central Utah by evening.
Three TUTT-like weaknesses in the mid-upper level ridging are spinning near Bermuda, over the Bahamas, and west of the Yucatan Peninsula. The last visible images this evening placed a broad inverted trough over the Bahamas, collocated with generally diffluent upper-level flow near the Bahamian TUTT. The NHC gives this disturbance a 20% chance of formation into a tropical cyclone over the next five days as it drifts WNW toward Florida. The NHC gives the disturbance over the Bahamas a 20% chance of formation into a tropical cyclone over the next five days as it drifts WNW toward Florida. From synopsis, a ridge axis will reach west across northern Florida tonight through Thursday night.
818 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019 A warm front will cross the region overnight. A cold front will cross the area Thursday.
/issued 229 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019/ There have been no significant changes to the previous forecast with weak upper ridging expected to remain over the region the next several days.
High pressure will continue to ridge across Florida and into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico into the weekend, with generally southeasterly winds turning onshore with the afternoon sea breeze.
High pressure is in place over the deep south this afternoon.
Lows tonight in the lower 70s inland closer to mid 70s coast.
A temporary southward encroachment by a trough over the Pacific Northwest will bring some cooling to near and slightly below normal levels through Thursday. However, as the trough to the north slides northeastward up and over the large semi- permanent ridge that has resided over the southern conus for the last month or so, will allow ridging to begin once again retrograding back into the region.
154 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 A cold front will drop south through the region overnight with chances for showers and a few thunderstorms along it.
1233 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 [Through 06Z Friday] western Atlantic ridge axis will extend into the eastern GOM through this period. West and north of the ridge axis, enough moisture may lead to isold convection in the late afternoon hours at most sites. Across AL and GA convection is initiating along a convergent axis at the western periphery of surface ridging. A mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic will continue to nose its way across the Tri-State region into Thursday.
The combination of winds and clouds should keep temperatures cooler for this time of the year for much of the area with highs ranging from the upper 70s around Hays to the mid 80s for areas along the Colorado and Oklahoma borders. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop mainly along and east of the highway 183 corridor and moreso along and east of the highway 281 corridor. It is still uncertain how far east the storms make it as the CAPE values drop through the night but it appears at least from the Colorado border to the highway 83 corridor will have a decent chance of rain.
After a cool start, Thursday should be another nice, but cool, day with highs in the low to mid 70s under sunny skies and light winds. On Friday, warmer air moves northward and should result in mid to upper 70s for highs.
/issued 247 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019/ (Tonight and Thursday) Models this forecast cycle still present data which indicates the ridge aloft will continue to weaken, over the next 24 hours.
Taking a look at the big picture, the 500mb ridge stretching from CO through the western Dakotas and Manitoba will slowly push east, and slide over the forecast area from 03Z-15Z Friday. Southwesterly flow will return at 500mb Friday afternoon, as the ridge moves across MN and the next 500mb trough that's across the Pacific Northwest early this morning moves across MT/WY, with unsettled weather returning to the forecast area. At the surface, we're starting off with the large Canadian high extending a ridge across far eastern SD and much of MN. Friday night we have our initial, negatively tilted trough, passing very slowly across the Dakotas.
Today Through Friday Night The heat is going to take a break in the near term as a big ridge of high pressure builds well to the west, and a weak cold front sags into Arkansas from Missouri.
At the surface, high pressure was pretty much in control across the Northern and Central Plains as well as the Upper Midwest.
High pressure ridge remains across n Fl today similar to yesterday. A little higher areal coverage of storms are expected over interior se Ga where higher moisture values and less subsidence will exist north of the ridge axis. Afternoon temperatures will reach the lower 90s with heat indices in the 100-105 range. Convection will die out early this evening with lows tonight in the low 70s inland and mid 70s coast.
247 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019 Cooler conditions are on tap across central Illinois through the weekend, though today will still be rather humid in areas near and south of I-72. High pressure over the Great Lakes will keep our weather dry from Friday through the weekend. Cooler and less humid weather is on tap with a persistent east/northeast flow. The focus for any rain will involve the upper trough currently seen in the Pacific Northwest on water vapor imagery.
128 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 High pressure in the Atlantic will direct a moist, south flow into the forecast area through the rest of the workweek. By this weekend, an upper-level low will cross north of the area, helping to drag an associated cold front into the forecast area. in the low to middle 70s.
Ahead of this trough southwest will increase across this afternoon over northern UT and CO. Friday will bring less wind and the trough will be east of the area and high pressure builds back over the western U. High temperatures will lower a few degrees behind the trough, but still be above normal. High pressure will build back over the western U. and bring the high temperatures back to 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
As the low-level jet weakens toward mid-morning, the expectation is the coverage of convection to decrease for a few hours.
1227 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019 Only real concern for the update would be the temperature trends in the southwest where southeasterly flow is keeping temperatures in the low 60s. Kept temperatures at or above last nights values along and east of the Highway 83 corridor, with highest readings far west. The strongest winds are expected across the higher terrain of southwest North Dakota.