Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Southwest flow aloft will continue through the period as the region remains situated to the northwest of a mid level ridge over the southern Gulf. Overnight lows and dewpoints are forecasted to be in the lower 70s both tonight and Wednesday night, with Wednesday's highs in the upper 80s to the mid 90s. Slight rain chances will return to the region Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night as a weak upper level disturbance tracks across the state ahead of an advancing closed low moving into the Desert Southwest.
223 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2020 Upper low remains positioned just off the California coast this afternoon with downstream ridging over the plains. Only real affect will be lighter winds and with less cloud cover overall, low temps tonight will be a bit cooler, though still well above normal. Light west wind will result in much above, and near record highs Wednesday in many locations before temps turn sharply cooler Wednesday evening. Cooler and mainly dry forecast for Thu/Fri before the west coast trough finally ejects east by the weekend.
Cooler air will filter in Wednesday night behind a cold front, but expect this airmass transition to occur with only a brief period of breezy NE winds overnight Wed night.
Decided to keep the High Wind Warning going through 6 PM this afternoon. A dry cold front begins to move into the area from the northeast Wednesday. bringing cooler air and less wind as the front moves through.
242 PM MDT Tue Apr 7 2020 The main short term forecast concern is the possibility of elevated fire weather conditions ahead of a cold front on Wednesday.
1115 AM MDT Tue Apr 7 2020 Overnight GOES-R WV/IR showed a nearly stationary upper low off the central CA coast, with abundant mid/upper level subtropical moisture spreading north and east across the southern CONUS. Temperatures varied from the lower 30s to mid 40s. Added the South Laramie Range Foothills to the High Wind Warning as strong winds spill out toward the I-25 corridor in Laramie County.
Went with RAP/CONSShort blend to trend in the right direction but thinking a HRRRBC (cooler) might be the more likely outcome given the very deep mixing today with the drier air working in over central KS. While another day of above normal temps are in store tomorrow, a cold front will push south through the region late afternoon and early evening as a deep upper low plunges southeast out of south central Canada.
The lighter mixing winds in the east will yield slightly cooler high temps today (around 60-ish) while the more efficient mixing winds in the west aide in nudging temps up moreso into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. The cold front currently over the eastern part of the area will continue to push eastward, and looks to be east of the area this morning. High pressure will settle in over the Upper Midwest today, with dry conditions expected into this evening. Will also see a fairly tight pressure gradient set up over the area on Wednesday ahead of approaching high pressure, so expecting a windy day. Cooler air then begins to move in, with highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s on Wednesday.
205 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2020 Forecast highlights in the short term period will be diurnally driven rain showers today, breezy winds west today, cold frontal passage tonight, and windy/cooler conditions for Wed along with another round of rain/snow showers. Currently, large upper level low pressure quasi-stationary across south central Canada. Embedded waves rotating around the low coupled with some weak instability and daytime heating have resulted in areas of light showers across the region. A more potent S/WV rotating around the upper low (now approaching western Alberta) will drive a strong cold front south across the region tonight.
246 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2020 The desert southwest upper level low will eventually weaken and head toward Texas late in the week.
A ridge will remain in place over the center of the nation with southwest flow aloft over the Tri-State area on Tuesday. Wednesday will be a cooler day as a cold front moves in from the north during the morning. With cooler air moving in, temperatures expected to cool in the afternoon, and RH values increasing, do not feel fire weather highlights are needed at this point in time. Wednesday night, temperatures will return to normal with lows ranging from the low to mid-30s across the region.
On Wednesday, a cold front will start to approach the region from the north. Temperatures will be warmer on Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 80s. The cold front will move into the region Wednesday night with a better chance of thunderstorms.
Conditions in our far SE will dry out a bit more than previously expected, hence lowered RH's to reach the low to mid 20's for most of the area. A strong cold front will sweep across the forecast area tonight ushering in gusty northwest winds from Yellowstone County eastward with the winds continuing through the day Wednesday. The front will also bring a slight chance for showers tonight into Wednesday morning along with much cooler temperatures for Wednesday.
A cold front will then approach the area late Wednesday afternoon. A cold front with attendant thunderstorms activity will make its way across the Ozarks wednesday evening with breezy condition and rain behind the front as winds shift out of the north.
1104 AM MDT Tue Apr 7 2020 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over northeast SD, with a nearly stationary frontal boundary extending westward through western SD, northeast WY, and northwest into MT. Upper level analysis shows trough over the west coast, with near zonal flow across the northern Plains region. One more warm day for the area, ahead of an approaching cold front. Cold front over MT this afternoon will slide southeast across the area tonight.
152 PM MDT Tue Apr 7 2020 A cold front was dropping south through the area this afternoon producing some popcorn cumulus clouds across parts of the area along with plenty of virga and gusty winds. This will set the stage for a cool day Wednesday with high temps about 10-15 degrees cooler than today.
Then a strong cold front will move through Wednesday night dropping temperatures quickly overnight by 15-20 degrees.
Morning cloud cover will keep afternoon highs a few degrees cooler today, with highs expected in the mid to upper 50s across the lowlands.
The cold front of interest for later tonight is analyzed back over northern Montana at this time. So, later tonight, said cold front will sweep southeastward through the region. Overall, looking at the vast majority of the CWA remaining at or above the freezing mark overnight (lows progged into the 30s and low 40s). Much cooler conditions are in order, though, for Wednesday and Wednesday night, with highs on Wednesday likely only topping out in the low 40s to low 50s, and low temperatures Wednesday night probably dropping into the 20s to around 30 degrees.
A cold front will approach and make passage tonight.
Current WV satellite reveals an upper low off the the California coast with west-southwesterly flow in place over W TX. Tonight, as the surface cyclone becomes centered over SW OK, expect light winds and mostly clear skies. Cold front approaches from the north Wednesday evening.
A cold front will move into northern WY after midnight tonight with a wind shift to the north or northwest. This cold front will sag south and back up against the continental divide on Wednesday.
Overnight lows will range from the lower 60s north, to the mid and upper 60s south. Due to coverage uncertainties, will keep POPs on the low side for now.
This is especially the cast along and north of the Highway 84 corridor. Highs on Wednesday in the low to mid 80s for most of the area, but some upper 70s along the immediate coast.
For tonight, a fast cold front will begin moving through the region after midnight from the northwest to southeast. Cold air advection continues into the evening hours, and with radiational cooling low temperatures will fall to around freezing Wednesday night.
This warming trend will continue through the short term period as southwesterly flow persists ahead of the next Pacifc low pressure system. However, virga will likely dominate with little to no precipitation expected as Bufkit soundings across the southern tier of the forecast area remain dry in the low levels.
Warm air advection all day under upper level ridging has allowed temperatures across Iowa to soar into the 70s with a few sites in southeast Iowa reporting temperatures in the low 80s this afternoon. This will pull a strong cold front across the area tomorrow and leave a large disparity in temperatures tomorrow in Iowa. Across southern Iowa ahead of the front temperatures will warm into the low 70s.
319 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2020 Weak cold front will begin to make it's way into the region by 22z and slowly sink south tonight. Otherwise, another mild night with lows in the low 50s to low 60s. Main cold front will begin to slide south through forecast area Wednesday afternoon.
On Wednesday, modest upper level ridge builds across the srn Rockies as cut-off low over srn California drifts inland. Frontal boundary begins to back westward through the plains Wed afternoon, though any impact will be limited to a shift to more n-ne winds and perhaps slightly cooler high temps, especially near the KS border.
A cold front will approach from the north tonight, under strong west northwest flow aloft. Late Wednesday night a potent cold front will move in from the northwest, possibly bringing more thunderstorms.
Very light rainfall occurred over the far northern portions of Sonoma and Napa Counties earlier this morning as moisture continued to wrap around the mid/upper level low offshore.
This will be the norm this week as warm, high pressure reigns. At night, temperatures will be able to cool into the 20s and 30s most areas, but teens in the higher elevation locations with snow cover.
After 09Z, areas of MVFR CIGS in SCT -SHRASN are expected, especially across northeast WY and northwest SD, as a cold front moves through.
1027 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020 A broad mean layer ridge centered over the Yucatan Channel has shifted to the east over the past 24 hours. The mid-upper level heights sampled by our 00Z KKEY RAOB have increased, although no changes were measured in the lower troposphere. The surface analysis paints a baggy and diffuse high pressure system which straddles Florida.
High pressure will sag south of the peninsula, with persistent westerly winds.
The main short term forecast concern is the possibility of elevated fire weather conditions ahead of a cold front on Wednesday.
Forecast highlights in the short term period will be diurnally driven rain showers today, breezy winds west today, cold frontal passage tonight, and windy/cooler conditions for Wed along with another round of rain/snow showers. Currently, large upper level low pressure quasi-stationary across south central Canada. Embedded waves rotating around the low coupled with some weak instability and daytime heating have resulted in areas of light showers across the region. A more potent S/WV rotating around the upper low (now approaching western Alberta) will drive a strong cold front south across the region tonight.
/Issued 223 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2020/ Upper low remains positioned just off the California coast this afternoon with downstream ridging over the plains. Only real affect will be lighter winds and with less cloud cover overall, low temps tonight will be a bit cooler, though still well above normal. Light west wind will result in much above, and near record highs Wednesday in many locations before temps turn sharply cooler Wednesday evening. Cooler and mainly dry forecast for Thu/Fri before the west coast trough finally ejects east by the weekend.
A slow moving upper level low will continue to bring unsettled weather to mainly central, and some portions of northern Nevada, through mid-week. A dry period will follow with somewhat drier and warmer weather during the late week following the departure of the upper level low.
Really don/t expect anymore overnight even though a few of the higher resolution models show this possibilty.
A low pressure system will bring cooler temperatures, along with chances for rain and high country snow showers from Wednesday afternoon through the remainder of the work week. A downturn in shower activity and warmer temperatures are forecast for the weekend. Satellite and upper-air analysis shows that a closed low remains off the California coast, centered near San Luis Obispo county. Showers associated with this low are impacting areas from San Diego northward to Santa Barbara.
Otherwise the main feature continues to be the increasing northwest winds for Wednesday afternoon along with cooler temperatures. Forecast highlights in the short term period will be diurnally driven rain showers today, breezy winds west today, cold frontal passage tonight, and windy/cooler conditions for Wed along with another round of rain/snow showers. Currently, large upper level low pressure quasi-stationary across south central Canada. Embedded waves rotating around the low coupled with some weak instability and daytime heating have resulted in areas of light showers across the region. A more potent S/WV rotating around the upper low (now approaching western Alberta) will drive a strong cold front south across the region tonight.
High pressure will weaken and slide south/east into Wed allowing winds to become predominantly offshore, though we should eventually see an ECSB at the immediate Space/Treasure coasts. Expect warmer temperatures on Wed with highs near records in the upper 80s to low 90s even along the coast. However, any cig reductions will be short lived as daytime heating breaks up any of this lower cloud cover within a few hours after sunrise. High pressure over the area will drift further south/east into the western Atlc.
/Tonight through Wednesday Night/ An upper level ridge to our south centered over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to be the dominant weather feature across our region through Wednesday. This will help to maintain south to southwest flow in the low levels with unseasonably warm and muggy overnight temperatures averaging near 70 degrees as low clouds will return after midnight. By Wednesday night, a cold front will be entering our far northern zones toward midnight and continue shifting south across the rest of the region through around daybreak. Although widespread showers and storms are not anticipated, isolated to scattered convection is possible with fropa as the cooler air undercuts the relatively warm and moist air currently in place.
An upper low was positioned offshore from SRN CA this afternoon. Lobes of ascent were rotating around the low, with one lobe approaching NRN CA. Elsewhere, periods of marine stratus will linger near the coast, favoring cooler highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. A northerly wind regime is expected to remain in place for much of the week as high pressure continues to build over the NE Pacific with occasional periods of southerly winds close to the coast S of promontories.
632 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2020 Weak cold front will begin to make it's way into the region by 22z and slowly sink south tonight. Otherwise, another mild night with lows in the low 50s to low 60s. Main cold front will begin to slide south through forecast area Wednesday afternoon.
836 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020 Low pressure over the upper midwest will track across northern Pennsylvania tonight, then high pressure will build into the state Wednesday.
The low pressure system off the California coast will continue to work slowly south down the coast this evening. This low pressure will turn east into the desert southwest and bring somewhat cooler and wet conditions to the area midweek.
623 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2020 The desert southwest upper level low will eventually weaken and head toward Texas late in the week.
345 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2020 Near or below freezing temperatures continue early this morning across much of western and central North Dakota. Late tonight into Wednesday morning near or sub- freezing temperatures are likely once again, this time with less cloud cover expected.
1228 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2020 A strong 1040 mb hybrid Pacific-Polar high pressure system has formed across British Columbia. The attendant cold front is advancing south through the Nrn High Plains this afternoon. The high pressure system will drop south through the nrn High Plains tonight and settle across ern WY-nern Colorado by Wednesday morning. All of the models indicate significant cloud cover will continue Tuesday night blocking any sort of radiational cooling for widespread frost. In fact, given the expected cloud cover, the forecast lows below freezing across northwest Nebraska Tuesday night might be too cool and later forecasts might raise these lows a few degrees. The models are in very good agreement developing a deep upper low across the srn Rockies Tuesday.
434 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2020 High pressure sits off to our east over the Piedmont. Temperatures have dropped into the lower 60s for most of our valley locations while remaining in the mid to upper 60s along the thermal ridges. Heights continue to rise through the period as high pressure strengthens across the deep south. Thus most heating must be taking place further aloft, suggesting afternoon highs Wednesday afternoon may be similar if not just a degree cooler than this afternoon, despite increasing heights aloft. This system has managed to produce some early season snow in the higher elevations out west.
236 AM MDT Tue Sep 8 2020 08z surface analysis had low over northwest CO with inverted trough into eastern WY. Water vapour had upper low spinning into northern UT with departing jet streak across the northern plains. Frost/freezing temperatures continue to look probable, but will hold off on headlines for two reasons. One, winter headlines for snow imply freezing temperatures.
832 PM PDT Mon Sep 7 2020 Winds will decrease overnight as the cold front exits the region. The cooler temperatures will persist through Tuesday with patchy frost possible in the sheltered northern valleys. The other issue that should not be ignored is the potential for some frost overnight into early Tuesday over the sheltered valleys of northeast WA, the north and central ID Panhandle and even possibly the higher Palouse. /Cote' 00Z TAFS: Wind will continue be the main problem this afternoon in the wake of a strong cold front.
A cold front is due to arrive near and after 09/00Z today with thunderstorms and strong winds behind it. /issued 245 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2020/ WV imagery shows the upper ridge now lies along the west coast, resulting in balmy temperatures and hazardous fire weather conditions there, courtesy of a trough just leaving Canada and digging down into our nrn Rockies. Closer to home, despite the ridge displacement west, afternoon highs are still set to top out a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday's.
This low is forecast to continue on a southerly trajectory overnight before stalling across east central Utah during the day Tuesday, as the frontal boundary surges through the remainder of Utah overnight. Away from the Wasatch Front, could see stronger winds along the Highway 6 corridor from Price to I-70, in addition to northern portions of the Uinta Basin, as well as through gaps/downslope areas of Washington County, where hi-res guidance all suggests strong winds develop overnight into Tuesday. Additionally, with the upper low closing off and stalling over east central Utah, upslope flow along the north slopes of the Uintas will result in a favorable setup for heavy snowfall, which could push upwards of a foot of accumulation by Tuesday night.
Convection has wane with the loss of daytime heating, which coincides with the onset of a building ridge. Mostly dry and well above normal temperature is expected Tuesday and Wednesday as upper ridging builds over the region in response to a rapidly digging low developing over the Four Corners Region.
Usually the second night in these cool snaps is colder, as the high settles over our eastern FA. However, the coldest 925mb temperatures are right now, and by 12z Wednesday they are generally 2-4C warmer. Most impactful weather will be coming on the weekend as a cut-off low intensifies and moves through our area.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): A strong 500mb low dives into the Desert SW through the day today, as the resulting trough stretches northeastward through the Great Lakes. Weak mid level low pressure from West Texas through northern Mexico is pulled northeast today into the southwesterly flow aloft, potentially enhancing convective development late this afternoon into this evening across Deep South Texas.
Temperatures are running a few degrees warmer in most places compared to 24 hours ago. A few warmer upper 80s are also expected. Tuesday morning lows will be similar to this morning's lows, mostly in the low to mid 60s. The light S wind may keep temps a few degrees warmer in the typical warm spots, while valleys will decouple. With dew points expected to stay just under 70F, heat indices should remain in the lower-mid 90s, certainly making for a hot and muggy Wednesday.
Pleasant weather conditions will continue across the TN Valley overnight, as the region will remain along the western edge of a mid- level subtropical ridge centered over the western North Atlantic. Although moderate southeasterly flow aloft will exist in this regime, surface observations indicate that the boundary layer has already decoupled from the lower troposphere across much of the CWFA, with light-calm winds and clear skies expected to support radiational cooling overnight. A stacked high/ridge will be located over the eastern CONUS into the southeast U.
254 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2020 Other than some possible valley fog early this morning, a dry atmosphere will keep our skies mostly clear while high pressure over the Appalachians provides us with a light south breeze today. Lows will be just a few degrees warmer than normal in the 60s.
Temperature contrast either side of the cold front today will pose a challenge, as we expect the cold front to stall/slow down with daytime heating over southern Kansas. Meanwhile anticipated environment ahead of the cold front in southeast Kansas, MLCAPE in the 2000-3000J/kg range with surface front parallel to wind shear vectors favors linear/multi-cell storm mode.
420 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2020 500mb analysis shows high pressure centered across west central TX with a ridge stretching into the Great Lakes. High pressure across the western CWA has retreated west a bit as compared to yesterday, while an inverted trough remains situated across the SE coast of the US. The high pressure ridging will remain west of the CWA through the period, and the inverted trough will move inland through Wednesday. More tropical-like dewpoints in the lower 70s will return for Wednesday.
311 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2020 High pressure east of the area allows very warm weather this week.
Todays temperatures will be slightly warmer than yesterday but still well below normal before reaching record lows for the second night in a row tonight. High temperatures today will remain in the upper 40s to low 50s before warming into the low to upper 60s.
HRRR sfc temp progs indicate the two areas of sub freezing temps right where the freeze warnings are out. Given that some spots in our northwestern counties got into the upper 30s even with cloud cover last night, getting down into the low 30s or even upper 20s seems reasonable in our cold spots. Split flow aloft for tomorrow with the southern branch upper low well to our southwest and the northern branch over our area. Cold air aloft should help develop some decent stratocu again tomorrow, as temps heat into the low to mid 50s.
At the same time, an unseasonably strong polar front continues to surge south across the high plains with strong isallobaric forcing centered over eastern CO. Areas along and west of US 75 appear to have the best shot at seeing much cooler temps during this time frame, with points east most likely staying on the warm side.