Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Tonight Through Saturday Latest subjective surface analysis indicates low pressure, centered just west of Memphis, with a cold front extending to the south-southwest to central Louisiana. An associated cold front will provide additional support for convection.
155 AM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021 A cold front has shifted just east of the I-59 corridor, taking the risk of thunderstorms with it. The theta-E ridge that pushes south of us today will pivot back northward rapidly tonight through the lower MS and into the TN valleys. The surface warm front should lift north during the morning, and shift these elevated thunderstorms further north into TN. This will be in advance of an upper trough axis dropping southeast through the upper Midwest into the southern Plains.
A front, on the southern flank of deep low pressure, will plow through the region this morning. Mixing with that feature, along with system speed and an isallobaric acceleration component, wl be the primary damaging threat as the low digs over the Great lakes. Winds will ease as the low exits northeastward this afternoon. Dry weather continues through Saturday as the high moves east.
Then thunderstorm chances increase significantly between 5 PM and midnight, with the majority of the activity expected in association with a warm front near the KS/NE border. this weekend, leaving us with transient ridging and increasing 500 mb heights.
Should see lows by daybreak several degrees cooler than the current temperatures. For tonight, southerly flow is expected to deepen ahead of the next approaching upper trough axis. A weak westward wind shift will move into the western counties Saturday afternoon as the forcing from the upper trough arrives.
Otherwise, expect overnight lows to fall into the low to mid 30s. By Friday, the region will become situated in the warm sector ahead of an advancing cold front. At this time, overall accumulations look to remain less than half an inch, with the highest amounts forecast to occur along and east of I- 29. While temperatures look to be a touch cooler on Saturday behind the aforementioned cold front, expect these values to rebound quickly heading into the new week as upper level ridging builds overhead the region.
313 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Still deepening low pressure center that brought our severe weather last evening will continue rushing northeast well away from the region. A small bubble high pressure will nose into the region this afternoon and provide a brief dry respite as we close out the work week. These parameters combined with the cold front as the lifting mechanism give enough to warrant the Day 2 Slight Risk for the western half of the CWA.
/issued 221 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021/ Today is a brief period between upper troughs. the next upper trough will swing down into AZ Friday and into NM early Saturday.
A cold front is pushing east through the area early this morning, identified by a wind shift and dewpoint drop, nearly along I-75 as of 330 AM. Late tonight, a southerly flow develops as the Atlantic ridge builds across the Southeast, resulting in the warm front pushing northward.
208 AM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Low pressure was moving through IN with weak high pressure building in over our area. For today, will continue to see that weak ridge of high pressure build in with a mix of sun and clouds. Otherwise, plan on high temperature readings in the mid-40s across north central WI to the lower and mid-50s elsewhere. Look for lows tonight in the lower 30s to lower 40s, highs Saturday in the mid-40s to mid-50s, and lows Saturday night in the 20s/30s.
/issued 1044 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021/ Convection has moved east of the area this evening and winds are gradually coming down in the wake of the cold front. Dry weather and only slightly cooler temperatures are expected tomorrow with temperatures warming into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Rain chances do return tomorrow night as the warm front lifts back to the north, but this looks to hold off until after midnight in most areas.
/issued 229 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021/ Weak upper level ridging has built over the region this afternoon with dry west-southwesterly winds. Tomorrow morning the upper flow becomes more southwesterly in response to an upper level trough digging into the Four Corners. Southwest flow aloft Friday night into Saturday will precede a (now quickly) approaching upper level low pressure trough swinging through the southwest Saturday.
1044 PM MDT Thu Mar 25 2021 19z surface analysis had low near the ND/MT/Canadian border with trough into eastern WY. Saturday, upper trough moves into the midwest in response to upper ridge over the west coast.
This will deepen the upper trough axis over the southwest states into Friday, and kick a short wave eastward across the Rockies which should reach western Kansas by tomorrow afternoon. Decent warm air advection north/above surface warm front should give way to elevated showers/storms. Could even see a few surface based storms try and develop where convergence is maximized along surface warm front late in the afternoon. Heading into Saturday the main upper trough will shift slowly eastward across Kansas.
Behind this system, High pressure develops across the eastern U. The sfc and upper level Low pressure system which tracked through the region last night has pushed into the southern Great Lakes this morning. A quiet weather day is in store, as a break between upper level Low pressure systems tilts sw to ne across the region today. Temperatures will be slightly cooler today, with highs reaching the 50s. A substantially deepening trof will invade the central CONUS, and shift eastward through the region.
The thunderstorms were mostly IC lightning in the WA portion of the Lower Columbia Basin, and a landspout touched down in West Pasco. In the wake of the upper wave, a strong upper ridge will gradually build into the area from the eastern Pacific. As this upper ridge builds into the area, a rather noted warmup can be expected.
As the warm front lifts northward, the most favorable area for severe storms will reside across western Kentucky. With impressive SRH values and backed low level flow, initial supercell development will pose a tornado threat, especially along and south of the warm front. Temperatures will remain mild on Friday with southerly winds redeveloping helping to nudge readings into the low to mid 60s. To the south, there is a low pressure system in southern TX with remnants of a stationary frontal boundary arcing northeast to just south of TN. The system to the north has a low near southeast NE, with a warm front develop along the northern edge of the WFO PAH forecast area. Canadian guidance suggests the best expenditure of 600-1400 j/kg2 CAPE will occur along and ahead of the a slowly moving cold front.
138 AM PDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Seasonal temperatures are likely over the forecast area today as upper-level high pressure ridging begins to move inland. A warming trend is forecast to occur this weekend as the ridge builds. Meanwhile, an isolated light shower or two is not out of the question for the Sierra for the early morning hours as the inside-slider trough pushes southward over Nevada. This system will shift further eastward later this morning and allow the East Pacific ridge of high pressure to gradually nudge inland for the remainder of today into the weekend.
Attention then turns to shower/thunderstorm chances this evening across mainly central and northeast Kansas, within a zone of strengthening warm advection north of a sharpening warm front. A cold frontal passage will drop temperatures a few degrees Saturday, especially across central Kansas.
1159 PM MDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Aviation Section Updated A cold front crossing the region will continue to bring snow showers through Friday afternoon.
150 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Low pressure, tracking to our north and west, will bring showers, and a few thunderstorms to the region overnight. A front, on the southern flank of deep low pressure, will plow through the region this morning. Mixing with that feature, along with system speed and an isallobaric acceleration component, wl be the primary damaging threat as the low digs over the Great lakes. Winds will ease as the low exits northeastward this afternoon. Dry weather continues through Saturday as the high moves east.
On Friday, we remain situated between an area of low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes and a developing trough along the lee of the Rockies. Clouds will be on the increase Friday afternoon and evening as moisture begins to stream in ahead of the western CONUS trough. Warm air advection and frontogenesis look to instigate precipitation locally as the 500 mb trough passes across the area on Friday night and Saturday.
202 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021 A weak cold front will impact the region Friday, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. The front will shift back north as a warm front Saturday, with a continued chance of showers and thunderstorms.
All the unsettled weather associated with a cold front moving through AL/GA and the Carolinas will remain well to our north.
The main cold front is now just east of Tuscaloosa to just west of Birmingham.
However, by later this afternoon, this front will become decoupled from the low, and begin retrograding north in form of a warm front. This warm front will pull moisture back into the region, and set the stage for possible severe weather Saturday evening and during the overnight hours. This primed atmosphere will encounter a southeastward moving cold front, which will increase shower and thunderstorm activity throughout the day on Saturday. As the warm front pulls north throughout the day, overnight lows will range from the mid 50s, all the way up to the upper 60s in our southern zones.
southerly winds increase with gusts in the 15 to around 30 mph range which will aid in afternoon temperatures climbing into the low to mid 70s for most locations. The wave out west is progged to push into the Southern Plains Saturday with a cold front forecast to move into the CWA early Saturday afternoon. Continued southerly flow ahead of the cold front will transport low level moisture back into the region with afternoon dewpoints in the 50s to around 60 degrees. This precip should taper off and exit from west to east Saturday evening and exit Saturday night with the departing cold front and the movement of the upper level trof axis through the region.
547 AM MDT Fri Mar 26 2021 12Z TAF CYCLE An upper-level trough over the Great Basin will continue to result in bouts of clouds and showers over far northwest NM today. Southwest winds increase all areas this afternoon, turning light northwesterly around sunset as the associated weak cold front moves through. A weak storm system moving into New Mexico from the northwest will continue providing some valley rain showers and areas of light snow to the higher terrain today. The rest of New Mexico will remain dry with slightly warmer temperatures and breezy west to southwest winds.
945 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Windy conditions are expected today in the wake of a cold front.
GOES satellite imagery reveals low pressure spinning over central Utah, with southwesterly flow in place over much of the western slope. As we move through the early morning hours, the most favorable period for snow accumulations will occur in the higher terrain as lift and moisture are maximized. Precipitation in the lower elevations has primarily been relegated to only light rain/drizzle, except for the US-160 corridor where favorable upslope flow has resulted in better precip rates, cooling, and light snow. The trough of low pressure will slowly translate eastward this evening and overnight, with dry air moving in from the north- northwest. Although surface drying will continue, some upper-level moisture will spill southward on the western fringes of a broad trough over the plains.
An area of low pressure will bring precipitation chances to parts of far southern Nevada into eastern California and Arizona today.
Temperatures today will warm into the mid 70s along the coast to the low 90s out west. Onshore flow will begin to strengthen tonight as a upper level trough digs across the Desert SW. Temperatures will be even warmer on Saturday as winds shift to the southwest at H85 with temperatures in the mid 90s across the Brush Country. Winds will begin shift to the north-northwest Saturday afternoon across the Brush Country as a prefrontal trough develops ahead of our next cold front.
The boundary that brought all of the severe weather across Alabama yesterday will stall across southern AL/MS and should retreat northward as a warm front late tonight into early Saturday morning. Just like the last few events these warm fronts have been pretty efficient rain producers and this particular one will be no exception. The warm front will usher in a moisture rich atmosphere and will also bring some instability with it. Storms should develop on the warm front as it moves north and some large hail will be possible with these elevated storms. The big question as we move into Saturday is how far north the warm front gets into the area as that front will serve focus for additional thunderstorm development on Saturday.
Otherwise the forecast remains on track with slightly warmer temperatures and breezy winds across much of the region this afternoon through tonight.
/issued 402 AM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021/ WV imagery shows the trough that wreaked havoc in the southeast CONUS yesterday and this morning ejecting into the Great Lakes Region, while another trough digs through the western CONUS towards the Four Corners. Thicknesses come down a bit Saturday as the trough moves into the area, but westerly downslope warming will mitigate this somewhat, w/afternoon temperatures most locations similar to today's, if not a degree or two cooler. The NAM12 shows a weak mtn wave signature at best, and 700mb height gradients don't appreciably tighten w/the trough, so high winds are not expected in the Guadalupes attm.
628 AM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021 (Today and tonight) Mid-level ridge will shift eastward away from the area while a mid-level trough digs into Arizona today before beginning to shift east overnight into eastern Arizona/western New Mexico by 12Z/Saturday. This will stay far enough west that we will not see much with this system through 12Z/Saturday, except for the high clouds moving over the area today.
648 AM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Low pressure was moving through IN with weak high pressure building in over our area. For today, will continue to see that weak ridge of high pressure build in with a mix of sun and clouds. Otherwise, plan on high temperature readings in the mid-40s across north central WI to the lower and mid-50s elsewhere. Look for lows tonight in the lower 30s to lower 40s, highs Saturday in the mid-40s to mid-50s, and lows Saturday night in the 20s/30s.
Clouds are expected to increase around sunrise as a warm front advances northward. Low pressure developing across the Texas Panhandle will support a steady onshore flow and increasing lower level moisture through the period. Warm to very warm conditions are expected today with highs ranging from the 70s along the beaches, mid to upper 80s inland and the low to mid 90s across the west under mostly sunny skies. Warmer temperatures continue into Saturday with southwest flow aloft.
A cold front has shifted just east of the I-59 corridor, taking the risk of thunderstorms with it. The theta-E ridge that pushes south of us today will pivot back northward rapidly tonight through the lower MS and into the TN valleys. The surface warm front should lift north during the morning, and shift these elevated thunderstorms further north into TN. This will be in advance of an upper trough axis dropping southeast through the upper Midwest into the southern Plains.
An upper trough is progged to move slowly eastward across Colorado today and tonight. The trough axis will be over the eastern CWA by 12Z Saturday morning. The best energy from the trough should be over the forecast area today, however it is not very strong. Will keep the highest pops going, "likely"s, in the mountains this afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be cooler than normals for highs today, about 3-5 C cooler than yesterday's readings. We'll start off on the chilly side Saturday with a few lingering light snow showers in the high country.
For early morning update, have adjusted cloud cover grids to match the timing of the low clouds. Upper level analysis places split flow over the western CONUS, with modest cyclonic flow over our area just ahead of the trough axis. For today, a rather quiet day is on tap as cooler air settles in behind the aforementioned front and skies remain mostly cloudy. Even with the cooler air behind the front, temperatures will still be a few degrees above average. Tonight, trough pushes east through the area while ridge builds over the west coast, bringing modest precipitation chances to various parts of our area. Northwest flow develops for Saturday as trough pushes to the east. Fire weather concerns become the highlight as we start the upcoming week.
This should break out pretty fast, as soon as the low level inversion breaks.
High pressure offshore will build eastward into Western Washington through Saturday.
The aforementioned trof will cont to dig S/wrd into the far Srn US over NM/TX, retaining a slightly pos tilt. Lingering cloud cover invof the warm frnt may once again inhibit diurnal/radiational heating, however prominent WAA is still progging fcst afternoon T's in the low to mid-70s. Given the displacement of the upper trof relative to the primary low-lvl forcing, mild weaknesses in vertical wind profiles are evident in pt fcst soundings over Srn AR, however bulk shear values of 50-60 kts could still support discrete updraft development.
The boundary is expected to move north into the area as a warm front during the day, however POPs are minimal and not much activity is expected.
The one caveat to temperatures being warmer than anticipated today is if the cloud coverage does not extend as far east as anticipated, then temperatures could rise into the mid 50s as 850 temps will reach 3 to 5 degrees.
/issued 631 AM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021/ While the majority of this TAF period will be spent in VFR conditions, a warm front will move north today and tonight, increasing clouds and ceilings. However, by later this afternoon, this front will become decoupled from the low, and begin retrograding north in form of a warm front. This warm front will pull moisture back into the region, and set the stage for possible severe weather Saturday evening and during the overnight hours. This primed atmosphere will encounter a southeastward moving cold front, which will increase shower and thunderstorm activity throughout the day on Saturday. As the warm front pulls north throughout the day, overnight lows will range from the mid 50s, all the way up to the upper 60s in our southern zones.
1033 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021 High pressure centered over the western North Atlantic near Bermuda stretches west across Florida. Visibile satellite imagery detects thin cloud streets across Florida, curving anticyclonically along the western fringes of the ridge axis. Temperatures are in the lower 80s with dewpoints in the mid 70s.
402 AM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021 WV imagery shows the trough that wreaked havoc in the southeast CONUS yesterday and this morning ejecting into the Great Lakes Region, while another trough digs through the western CONUS towards the Four Corners. Thicknesses come down a bit Saturday as the trough moves into the area, but westerly downslope warming will mitigate this somewhat, w/afternoon temperatures most locations similar to today's, if not a degree or two cooler. The NAM12 shows a weak mtn wave signature at best, and 700mb height gradients don't appreciably tighten w/the trough, so high winds are not expected in the Guadalupes attm.
732 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Windy conditions are expected today in the wake of a cold front.
317 AM MDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Cooler temperatures are expected today behind the cold front that moved through the region yesterday.
631 AM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021 While the majority of this TAF period will be spent in VFR conditions, a warm front will move north today and tonight, increasing clouds and ceilings. However, by later this afternoon, this front will become decoupled from the low, and begin retrograding north in form of a warm front. This warm front will pull moisture back into the region, and set the stage for possible severe weather Saturday evening and during the overnight hours. This primed atmosphere will encounter a southeastward moving cold front, which will increase shower and thunderstorm activity throughout the day on Saturday. As the warm front pulls north throughout the day, overnight lows will range from the mid 50s, all the way up to the upper 60s in our southern zones.
740 AM MDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Updated forecast to include mention of light precipitation across the lower Snake Plain and Magic Valley this morning.
The formation of a weak leeside trough will bring mixing to western areas this afternoon helping push temperatures into the upper 40s but clouds will be more persistent over southeast Montana and this will keep temperatures in the lower 40s. Saturday night a deepening leeside trough will begin to raise winds in gap flow areas.
Later today, a broad upper trof will move over CO, with the main energy associated with this system dropping south into AZ. Overnight the upper trof will slowly move east across the state. This afternoon, showers are expected to spread into the eastern mtns, as well as the high valleys, and over Teller and El Paso Counties. Temperatures will be on the warm side, with highs in the low-mid 50s over the entire area, excluding the mountains.
The poor aviation conditions near the coast is associated with a warm front advancing northward across the Rio Grande Valley this morning. Clouds are expected to increase around sunrise as a warm front advances northward. Low pressure developing across the Texas Panhandle will support a steady onshore flow and increasing lower level moisture through the period. Warm to very warm conditions are expected today with highs ranging from the 70s along the beaches, mid to upper 80s inland and the low to mid 90s across the west under mostly sunny skies. Warmer temperatures continue into Saturday with southwest flow aloft.
Upper level analysis places split flow over the western CONUS, with modest cyclonic flow over our area just ahead of the trough axis. For today, a rather quiet day is on tap as cooler air settles in behind the aforementioned front and skies remain mostly cloudy. Even with the cooler air behind the front, temperatures will still be a few degrees above average. Tonight, trough pushes east through the area while ridge builds over the west coast, bringing modest precipitation chances to various parts of our area. Northwest flow develops for Saturday as trough pushes to the east. Fire weather concerns become the highlight as we start the upcoming week.
High pressure will spread over the area keeping us dry today. To our northwest a cold front will be moving through Missouri during the afternoon and may bring an isolated thunderstorm to our far northwestern areas late in the afternoon.
211 PM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Winds slowly subside behind an exiting cold front today.
A ridge of high pressure continues to build into the region from the eastern Pacific.
1227 PM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021 (Today and tonight) Mid-level ridge will shift eastward away from the area while a mid-level trough digs into Arizona today before beginning to shift east overnight into eastern Arizona/western New Mexico by 12Z/Saturday. This will stay far enough west that we will not see much with this system through 12Z/Saturday, except for the high clouds moving over the area today.