Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
321 PM MDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Upper level analysis has large ridge to the west and trof to the east with fast northerly flow aloft across the northern Plains. Skies are mostly clear across the area with just some high clouds spilling over the western ridge. At the surface, warm frontal boundary continues to slowly shift east across the forecast area this afternoon, with west to northwest boundary layer flow present.
1137 AM MDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Updated to add light freezing drizzle to zone 58 for this morning. This has helped keep overnight temperatures in the lower 30s across much of the Plains. an upper trough over the Missouri Valley will continue east away from Colorado while high pressure builds along the West Coast. With clearing skies tonight, temperatures will likely fall into the lower to mid 30s across the region.
Could see a few spots hit the freezing mark but just briefly over our northern tier of counties/parishes.
600 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 High pressure remains in place across the region keeping conditions dry and quiet. Temperatures for Saturday night will be chilly again, although, warmer than the previous couple nights. Expect lows in the low to mid 30s. Highs on Sunday will range from the low 50s along the South Dakota border to the upper 60s south of I-80. The large scale pattern remains highly amplified early Sunday night and will feature a 500 hPa longwave trough dominating much of CONUS with a closed low near extreme southwest Ontario. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge will have broken down in the west with a mid-level low moving onshore to southern CA. The large scale upper-level trough will then broaden across the CONUS over the next 48 hours with cyclonic flow prevailing aloft.
245 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Main concerns in this forecast cast cycle are first period freezing temperatures over most of AR, with a freeze warning in effect Saturday night to Sunday morning.
234 PM MDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Based on web cameras, it appears most of the freezing drizzle has ended in the mountains. Below about 10000 feet temperatures have climbed above freezing, so if drizzle is still occurring, it is not freezing. Ridging in the northwest flow aloft will shift off to the southeast Sunday morning. A cold front will enter northeast Colorado during the afternoon.
Broadly speaking, a somewhat amplified mid level pattern continues across the conus, with ridging over the western conus, and troffing in the central and east. Warm air aloft and near or slightly below freezing temps at the sfc late tnt may set up a brief period of sleet/freezing rain over the northeast part of the cwa. An upper level trough will dominate the weather picture for the central and eastern U.
356 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 A relatively nice afternoon is being observed across the local area as light westerly winds have developed and begun advecting warmer air in from the west. expect a cold front to rapidly approach from the north during the late morning hours. where cooler air should begin filtering in before the time of peak heating. Cool air is expected to filter in behind the aforementioned cold front Sunday night.
1226 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 The strong upper level positively tilted trough which brought the first freeze to the region this morning will be moving off to the east. Temperatures will be warmer today but the extent of cloud cover over the area may keep temps down some. Late evening and into the overnight time frame, another cold front will move through the region bring the temperatures back down. This will allow this next cold front to come through the region dry.
/Issued 1137 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017/ Deep longwave troughing is evident in upper level water vapor imagery this morning. which is helping to push a sfc cold front across the region. 15z obs (ASOS & RAWS) indicate the cold front lies in the vicinity of a Summerville to Dalton line. Expect a non-diurnal trend in temps this afternoon for all locations except central and east-central CWA as the cold front pushes thru. /Issued 328 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017/ A cold front is about to enter far nw GA and is forecast to move across the area today and this evening. With increased winds tonight, freezing temperatures or frost are not likely.
1116 AM MDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Cloudy conditions over the CWA under a northerly upper wind flow between an upper ridge over the western CONUS and a large upper trough from the Great Lakes area into the southern plains. Expect the clouds to hold across the CWA for most of the day today with even a few snow showers possible over the higher mtns as a weak impulse drops south across the CWA. Warmer today but favored the cooler guidance given the ample cloud cover expected. Sunday will start off mainly clear then the next cold front will pass across in the afternoon.
/Issued 339 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017/ /Today and Tonight/ Today should be a fantastic but cool day across North Texas as the large upper trough continues to move east of the area and strong height rises spread through the southern Plains. This will make temperatures in the 50s feel a little cooler, although full sun will help. By tonight, the high will shift south and east of the area with light southwest winds prevailing across the region.
High pressure will settle into the region with light winds and VFR conditions prevailing. VFR will prevail through the period due to high pressure dominating the weather. /issued 356 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): Even after an adjustment earlier, temps still running a few degrees warmer than forecast at this hour in the mid-Lower RGV, mainly due to some stubborn mid- level clouds. With nearly ideal conditions for radiational cooling in place, low temperatures for Sunday morning will fall to the low-mid 40s, except on the barrier island.
Temps tonight should mostly fall into the lower and mid 30s across the plains and the upper Arkansas River valley, with the San Luis Valley mainly seeing los in the 20s. Temps on Sun will be warmer than today. The high valleys should see highs in the 60s on Sun.
157 PM MDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Large scale trough over the eastern US and ridge across the western US remain in place, with northerly flow across the Plains (including our CWA). At the Surface a trough axis currently bisects our CWA, with a stalled front near the Colorado border. Surface winds shift to the west overnight with increasing WAA through the night, and most locations should see overnight lows above freezing for the first time in several nights. This trough will push a cold front towards our CWA, and current guidance has this passage late enough in the afternoon to allow for a good window of WAA over at least the southerly half of our CWA. This will again depend on the timing of the cold front (the earlier the stronger the winds).
Main concerns in this forecast cast cycle are first period freezing temperatures over most of AR, with a freeze warning in effect Saturday night to Sunday morning.
658 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 As of mid-afternoon, a surface analysis had low pressure near Mackinac Island, Michigan while yesterday's cold front was now along the spine of the Appalachians. Visible satellite imagery showed a blanket of stratus wrapping around the low from the Upper Midwest through the lower Ohio Valley. For this evening and tonight, plan on mostly cloudy to overcast skies with the moisture remaining trapped in the low-level inversion. Moisture time-height analysis across the area shows little erosion or drying of the moisture overnight and this increased cloud cover combined with a steady wind should preclude widespread freezing or sub-freezing temperatures. For tomorrow, plan on mostly cloudy to overcast skies in the morning then some improvement west to east in the afternoon as the upper level trough axis moves east of the area.
The aforementioned westerly downslope flow will draw warmer air into the region tonight helping to raise H85 temperatures up by roughly 10C. Should see lows only down into the 30s(F) across central Kansas tonight with the lower 40s(F) possible in extreme southwest Kansas. Another fairly strong cold front will be pushing through western Kansas Sunday Night, but with the associated jet north across Nebraska, it will be another dry front for our part of the world.
228 PM MDT Sat Oct 28 2017 High pressure aloft will bring breezy west winds and dry conditions to the forecast area this evening before a strong Canadian cold front moves through the region overnight.
132 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 After morning lows in the low to mid 20s across the area and the first hard freeze of Autumn across the CWA, temperatures have rebounded into the upper 30s to low 40s early this afternoon. The cooler readings were over the eastern CWA, which remained on the western edge of the large stratus deck today. Good radiational cooling will set up, especially across the eastern CWA, which will likely have lows in the low 20s. Further west, temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s are expected and a south wind will begin to set up overnight with the ridge axis shifting east. Southerly winds will set up across the entire area on Sunday along with rising upper heights as the trough shifts east into the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio valley.
328 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 A large area of high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will move over the east coast and remain through midweek.
Very little change anticipated in the weather pattern over the next few days as the region remains between a building ridge over the eastern Pacific and a trough to our east.
WV imagery shows the upper trough has moved into Canada, with its replacement digging SE out of BC.
415 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 A ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather of eastern Kentucky for the foreseeable future. Day time highs are expected to top out at or slightly above normal today and tomorrow, with max readings in the low to mid 70s forecast for today and the mid to upper 70s for Monday. The mid level ridge will peak by mid week over the Southeast while deep and broad troughing pushes through the Bitterroots and into the Northern Plains.
with afternoon temps once again warming into the lower/mid 80s.
A trough continues to move southeast today, spreading cooler air across the area.
An upper level trough will linger over the area today then sink south tonight. Dry north flow will develop on Monday and continue through the week with a ridge over the area. A broad upper level trough remains over the western U. Temperatures will continue to trend a few degrees cooler than normal with highs near 60. The forecast is looking dry for the workweek as an upper level ridge starts to build inland. The low level flow is also turning offshore for less cloud cover.
225 AM PDT Sun Oct 1 2017 A strong cold front moves through today.
A slow moving cold front will drift into the Ohio Valley for the second half of the week. bringing an increasing chance for rain along with cooler temperatures. Another cool early morning in progress across central Indiana as high pressure remains centered over the eastern Great Lakes. 07Z temperatures ranged from the mid 40s to the lower 50s.
351 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 High pressure centered over New York State will drift very slowly off the east coast by mid week.
Sly low level flow around the high over the Mid Atlantic states will then bring a surge of 925-850 mb dewpoints late tonight with bkn stratus expected.
348 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 Dry conditions are expected through the middle of the week as high pressure influences the weather across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
The heaviest snowfall totals will fall in the Flat Tops and Park Range, where as much as 20 inches could be seen in the highest and most favored terrain. This will push a cold front through the northern half of western CO and eastern UT through Sunday night. The cold core at 500 mb of the this low will reach about minus 25 degrees with 700 mb temperature falling below zero late tonight over northern areas. By Monday morning the cold front should be stalled over the Bookcliffs area by it may move further south or remain further north. The rest of the week the forecast area will be under the influence of the strong trough over the Great Basin.
330 AM EDT Sun Oct 01 2017 Canadian high pressure will extend into central North Carolina from the north and northeast through mid week. The column will remain dry and quite stable, with one exception: At 850 mb, an anticyclone centered near Toronto/Buffalo this morning will slide southward to the Mid Atlantic region by this evening, resulting in a weak jetlet from the E and SE drawing moisture into central NC in the upper reaches of the mixed layer. Lows should be a few degrees warmer than this morning, 49-55, although if model trends and observations later today suggest greater cloud cover overnight, these readings may be a tad too low.
Maximum temperatures will approach the low 90s across the western peninsula and upper 80s for the east coast metro region, typical for this time of year. Through mid week: By Monday, models begin to build a dominant high pressure cell over the eastern CONUS and mid Atlantic waters, tightening surface pressure gradients, and increasing easterly flow over South Florida.
639 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 Slowly evolving upper air pattern will leave high pressure anchored immediately east of the area through the forecast period.
a surface boundary associated with low pressure over SE Sask. Main upper level trof is over the intermountain west with primarily southwest flow aloft.
An upper level ridge will build over the OH/TN Valley Regions. Our latest standard model blend brings some small rain chances late week with the approach of a cold front. Confidence in pops and possible cooler temps late week is low. The ridge may hold and the front may not approach at all this week.
118 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period with high pressure remaining in control.
529 AM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017 Easterly wave/inverted trof over the NE Gulf progged to continue WWD over the next couple of days. Expanding deep layer ridge over the Mid Atlantic will aid in shunting MSTR off to the west and allowing drier air to intrude from the east late TUE into WED, with rain chances rapidly decreasing as a result. Greater uncertainty creeps into the forecast for the late week period and beyond, but the general consensus of the global models and their respective ensembles is for upper ridging to build over TX, maintaining mostly dry and warm conditions. Checking on latest tidal guidance, still think we are ok to hold off on a Coastal Flood Advisory for the high tide cycle late tonight into early Monday, but of course the day crew will evaluate this further.
and Monday High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will slowly shift east during the period, as a cold front approaches from the Northern Plains. Mostly cloudy and breezy conditions are anticipated on Monday, with highs in the lower to middle 70s.
418 AM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017 Early morning satellite imagery with GFS 500mb heights and winds showed a strong, negatively tilted longwave trough across the Pacific Northwest angling southeast toward the High Plains of Nebraska. A powerful upper level jet will round the base of the trough leading to a prolonged period for synoptic scale ascent, clouds, and precipitation.
119 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 Low pressure departs as high pressure builds from the west overnight and Sunday. This high pressure over the northeast builds slowly east through the upcoming week, moving offshore by mid week as a cold front approaches from the west.
342 AM PDT Sun Oct 1 2017 A low pressure system developing over the interior western states will bring stronger onshore flow with periods of gusty west winds in the mountains and deserts.
237 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 The first of October is starting off seasonably cool with a surface analysis showing high pressure centered over western New York state. By dawn, expect most if not all locations to dip into the low to mid 40s, outside of the Louisville metro where upper 40s are likely. For today, the high pressure will continue moving east over the Northeast and a easterly to slight southeasterly wind will develop over Kentucky and southern Indiana. The air mass will moderate compared to yesterday, so plan on highs to reach the middle 70s with the typical warmer spots in the upper 70s.
Forecast temperatures are now hovering around the freezing mark in the early morning hours rather than well below it.
301 AM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017 With the upper ridge now to our east and an upper trough deepening over the west, flow from the low to mid levels has become southerly. But with a tightening pressure gradient from a strengthening lee side trough, surface winds will be on the increase.
451 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 Under partly cloudy skies and east winds of 10 to 15 mph, temperatures are in the lower 80s across most island communities. Surface wise, a large area of high pressure is centered over upstate New York, with an extensive ridge axis damming southward east of the Appalachian chain. Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure is located from the Yucatan peninsula to across northern Florida.
140 AM EDT Sun Oct 01 2017 Canadian high pressure will extend into central North Carolina from the north and northeast through mid week. Lows ranging from mid 40s in the typically cooler locations to upper 40s/lower 50s elsewhere.
A broad upper-level trough across the western half of the country helped amplify a ridge from the Gulf up into the Great Lakes. Daytime highs will be in the upper 70s in NW AL and in the lower 70s in NE AL. More confident this will occur in the early afternoon hours with the passing of an inverted trough feature. The ridge will continue to shift eastward with models showing a disturbance moving into the northern periphery of the ridge in our area on Monday.
647 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 High pressure builds across the region today. This high will remain over the region into mid week providing fair weather and gradually warming temperatures.
with short wave energy dumping into the PAC NW and an emerging deepening trough across the western CONUS. and downstream ridging advancing across the western Great Lakes. Trough west/ridge east looking to once again to dominate at least for the first half of the week.
Biggest question is how long will the low clouds persist across the Caprock and models have done a pretty poor job with this the past couple of days. However, the biggest concern is that models are pretty abruptly eroding the low clouds around 18Z but this will likely be a more gradual process so the exact timing remains uncertain.
Max/min temperatures will trend warmer/above early Oct. Abundant warmth and dry wx will continue through midweek given well above normal upper ridge/heights. There remains a good deal of model variability concerning the northern stream flow which should suppress the anomalous ridge and send a cold front through the area toward the end of the week. Timing of the late-week front and low pressure system tracking through the Great Lakes over the weekend remains uncertain - and therefore will utilize multi-model blend. Sub-freezing temps over the northern tier producing a widespread frost, with patchy frost impacting deeper valleys of central/southern mountains.
Slightly above normal temperatures expected this afternoon before temperatures decrease 10 to 12 degrees on Monday due to a passing cold front.
/issued 330 PM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017/ Models show the upper low moving closer into the Yucatan Peninsula by Sunday helping push the plume of moisture into the Gulf waters extending into northeast FL. High pressure over the western Atlantic begins to build over the region, which will return the easterly flow across the peninsula by Sunday afternoon. As ridge begins to build over along the east, surface gradient tightens increasing easterly flow over South Florida. Maximum temperature lower slightly along the east coast metro region into the mid 80s, a couple degrees cooler than normal for this time of year. Sunday, ridge begins to build over the region and strengthen the pressure gradient. Conditions begin to deteriorate into Sunday with high pressure building over the region and tightening the surface gradient.
The region will be situated between high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west tonight, with a fairly tight pressure gradient likely keeping wind speeds in the 15 to 25 MPH range overnight. As the low and its associated frontal boundary reach the western part of the state late tonight, a 40-50 knot LLJ will aid in the development of precipitation, mainly across the central and eastern portions of the CWA. By 00Z Monday the 500mb weather pattern shows the main low situated across MT, with a trough extending from off the west coast through the western two-thirds of the nation. While the northern extent of the low moves poleward from Manitoba Monday evening, the southern end of the trough remains in place or even retrogrades slightly westward.
338 AM MDT Sun Oct 1 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southern SK, with cold front now moving southeast into northwestern portions of the forecast area. Upper level analysis shows large scale trough continuing to dig south across the western US, with strong jet from the WA/OR coast to the Four Corners area. Cold front will move from west to east across the forecast area through the morning and midday hours, exiting south central SD early to mid afternoon.
249 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 Canadian high pressure remains established over the region into the middle of the upcoming workweek. High pressure is going to keep our area mainly sunny today with low humidity. Tonight, as the flow turns more northeast to east, a few low clouds may shift into the area and/or form near the Blue Ridge, but overall airmass stays dry enough that scattered clouds are all that is forecast. Temps staying cool although a few degrees warmer than this morning. Lows in the lower to mid 40s in the west and into the upper 40s in the Piedmont and foothills.
High pressure brings fair weather through the middle of the week. Tonight wl once again see a return of patchy frost, tho mins will be warmer than this mrng due to cld cvr associated with weak front dropping out of Quebec. High pressure will continue to dominate the region's weather early this week.
Multiple mid level waves are forecast to propagate across western and central North Dakota Sunday morning and through the afternoon out of the larger trough across the northern intermountain west. The question is how much instability can build ahead of the cold front that will occlude with the stationary front across central into eastern North Dakota this afternoon given expected cloud cover.
628 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 High pressure draped across New York State will slowly drift east and off the Atlantic coastline through midweek. high pressure will remain anchored directly overhead today with attendant strong subsidence and plentiful dry air supporting nearly full sunshine. with readings peaking in the lower to mid 60s in most areas. With overnight lows should be a category or so milder and range from the lower 40s across the lake plains to the mid 30s across interior portions of the Southern Tier and North Country. The dominant weather feature this week will be a strong surface and upper level ridge over the eastern CONUS, providing a continuation of fair and dry weather.
For 12z Aviation discussion below Early morning satellite imagery with GFS 500mb heights and winds showed a strong, negatively tilted longwave trough across the Pacific Northwest angling southeast toward the High Plains of Nebraska. A powerful upper level jet will round the base of the trough leading to a prolonged period for synoptic scale ascent, clouds, and precipitation.
By this afternoon an area of low pressure and cold front will begin working across the region.
637 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 Dry conditions are expected through the middle of the week as high pressure influences the weather across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.