Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
142 AM EST Thu Feb 18 2021 Another low pressure system will bring wintry precipitation to the region through Thursday night. Looking at the large scale pattern, deep and broad upper-level troughing exists over the central CONUS, with the Upper Ohio Valley region placed downstream in deep southwest flow. At the surface, strong, cold high pressure currently lies across the northeast CONUS while the first of two surface perturbations is expected to move from the Gulf Coast towards the Mid-Atlantic this morning underneath the right entrance region of a ~180kt anticyclonic jet streak. A winter weather advisory (warning for the WV ridges) is in place.
Outside of the potential for morning freezing fog and low clouds, the next 48 hours is relatively quiet. In fact, we will finally get above freezing Friday afternoon for most--if not all--of the Panhandles. This will put an end to nearly two weeks of below freezing temperatures for some areas. Amarillo will have gone 8 consecutive days below freezing, which will end up being tied for 4th all time (records go back to 1892). When coupled with light wind speeds and areas of snow pack, this may result in patchy areas of freezing fog this morning potentially bringing visibilities to 1 mile or perhaps less. Some areas in the east may struggle to reach the 40s, but the chance for nearly the entire Panhandles to get above freezing is high.
We are seeing some additional development over Arkansas and that area of snow and possibly freezing drizzle will move through the forecast area this morning. High pressure build into the area tonight into Friday.
341 AM MST Thu Feb 18 2021 The broad central US trough will be shifting east today (finally), bringing a brief stop to snowfall across western and central WY. The northwest flow aloft will help bring warmer temperatures to areas east of the divide Friday, with widespread 30s to near 40 degrees for most lower elevations.
448 AM EST Thu Feb 18 2021 The warm front is just to the north of the area this morning, with weak ridging from the Atlantic building in across the peninsula. An area of low pressure will track NE across the FL panhandle and southern GA today, with the cold front then moving through the local area tonight and Friday.
Will keep pops on the low side area wide with the slightly higher pops near the lake. near the lake, there should be persistent convergence in the low level winds which could give us light lake effect snow showers. A potent upper low with a digging trough will swing across WI this evening. There should be enough synoptic forcing to squeeze out light snow over northern and central WI, and perhaps southern WI, although forcing is a little weaker down here away from that upper low and also we are battling dry air.
By Friday, much of NE Montana will see daytime highs above freezing.
Rain has already been observed in the Big Bend where temperatures are above freezing, however a transition to all snow is expected between 12Z-15Z, therefore went ahead and added the Chisos Basin, and Lower Brewster County to the Winter Weather Advisory. Patchy freezing fog will also be possible. High temperatures in the Permian Basin are expected to rise above freezing for the first time in several days.
An upper trough will move through the region today and latest satellite showed it over the eastern Dakotas. Soundings across much of the Northland continue to show a saturated area on the lower end of the DGZ so some larger flakes and better chance for at least some light accumulation is expected. The upper trough will exit late tonight into Friday morning and much of the light snow is expected to diminish or end.
/Issued 415 AM CST Thu Feb 18 2021/ Warmer temperatures are imminent, but first it appears that much of the forecast area will spend one more day at or below freezing. A few places that see the most sunshine may try to creep just above freezing briefly this afternoon, but most of us will have to wait until Friday.
This subsidence is associated with an upper level ridge entering western Montana but it's amplitude is decreasing as it enters the state. Expect a drier day across the region with increasing pressure gradients along the foothills as a leeside trough develops. Have winds decreasing Friday evening as the main leeside trough moves off the Front Range. Other noticeable feature Friday will be the much warmer temperatures which could climb above freezing for most of the area. This will also support warmer temperature Friday night.
Upper level analysis shows a broad trough still covering much of Canada and the US, with a ridge along the Pacific NW coast. The gradual warming trend will continue late week and into the weekend as upper trough gradually shifts east and ridging slides across the western US. We will finally see temps at least approach the freezing mark on Friday in most areas, with highs expected to be in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
near the lake, there should be persistent convergence in the low level winds which could give us light lake effect snow showers. A potent upper low with a digging trough will swing across WI this evening. There should be enough synoptic forcing to squeeze out light snow over northern and central WI, and perhaps southern WI, although forcing is a little weaker down here away from that upper low and also we are battling dry air.
306 AM CST Thu Feb 18 2021 At 2 AM, flurries and light snow were still falling across some areas along and east of the MS River, with visibilities between 2 and 5 miles, as a upper level trough was moving eastward across the area. Today, high pressure will be building in from the west. Lows tonight will be in the lower single digits above and below zero with light west winds.
At 2 AM, flurries and light snow were still falling across some areas along and east of the MS River, with visibilities between 2 and 5 miles, as a upper level trough was moving eastward across the area. Today, high pressure will be building in from the west. Lows tonight will be in the lower single digits above and below zero with light west winds.
The upper wave slides off to the east tonight, leaving weak ridging overhead on Friday. High temperatures today will be range from the teens east to the lower 20s west, with lows tonight in the single digits either side of zero. Warmer air will begin to infiltrate into the area as this frontal boundary passes through during the course of the upcoming weekend.
434 AM MST Thu Feb 18 2021 The broad central US trough will be shifting east today (finally), bringing a brief stop to snowfall across western and central WY. The northwest flow aloft will help bring warmer temperatures to areas east of the divide Friday, with widespread 30s to near 40 degrees for most lower elevations.
Observations are king and I am impressed with the amount of moisture coming out of Mexico on WV as well as the low cloudiness in our southwest. Seminole has seen light snow, reported to be grainy, and given the northward advancement of the low level cloudiness, have little reason to not buy into some light snow down that way. We should see some clearing this afternoon once again before conditions go downhill tonight with a focus on freezing fog.
Cross barrier flow increases to 40-50kt Friday morning, but looks like the strongest winds would remain across the higher elevations as parameters not conducive to an amplified mountain wave due to strong shear and upstream mountain moisture. Warmer again as 700mb temperatures climb to about - 7C which will result in temperatures back into the 40s.
Cold front is still expected to push through the area late tonight through early afternoon tomorrow. /issued 448 AM EST Thu Feb 18 2021/ The warm front is just to the north of the area this morning, with weak ridging from the Atlantic building in across the peninsula. An area of low pressure will track NE across the FL panhandle and southern GA today, with the cold front then moving through the local area tonight and Friday.
541 AM CST Thu Feb 18 2021 The mid/upper trough across the central CONUS continues to shift slowly eastward.
Current surface analysis places high generally across the northern CONUS, though a weak little trough is meandering across the northern plains. Upper level analysis places trough through the eastern plains into the midwest, with ridge pushing over the Pacific coast. Over our little corner of paradise, some light snow has developed with the aforementioned trough which is now pushing east through south central North Dakota into the James River Valley. For today, temperatures will remain similar to yesterday with a northwesterly breeze on the backside of the aforementioned trough.
Aside from chances for snow/flurries, today will be slightly warmer than it was yesterday with afternoon highs getting into the mid teens to lower 20s. For Friday, surface winds turn southerly during the morning hours, and with the help of weak ridging aloft leading to warm air advection, we will likely see afternoon highs in the upper teens with areas along and west of the James River Valley likely getting up into the mid twenties.
Soundings show that there be be just enough saturation in the lower levels to interact with the steep lapse rates after surface heating. Another trough will be right on the heels of these showers tomorrow.
550 AM CST Thu Feb 18 2021 TAF issuance 18/12Z Showers with possible freezing rain will be affecting areas near AEX, clearing out by 18Z. Amid this cloud cover and ongoing CAA, temperatures will struggle to rise much today, and have tilted them toward the lower end of guidance. The mean upper trof axis will traverse the region tomorrow leaving a relatively flat westerly flow aloft in its wake.
No Wind Chill Advisories are anticipated due to the low coverage/impacts. A ridge builds into the region through the early weekend, with a progressive pattern setting up across the central United States. Over the weekend a ridge translates across the Northern Plains, with a trough digging into the northern Rockies. On the western side of the ridge westerly flow brings temperatures above freezing to end the weekend.
Flurries have been very easy to come by given the temperatures being in the dendritic zone within this low cloud deck. There have been breaks in the low clouds and if the models are correct these breaks should become more numerous by afternoon. It will still be rather cold today, but warmer than it has been as highs get into the 20s for most locations.
Unfortunately, another widespread deep freeze is expected for tonight into Friday morning as an arctic high pressure will be moving over Texas, bringing in even colder air to the area.
352 AM CST Thu Feb 18 2021 As of 10Z Thursday morning, a large scale midlevel trough remains across the Central US. Areas with overcast skies have remained much warmer than previously anticipated with temperatures in the mid-teens. Highs this afternoon should reach the low to mid 20s.
530 AM EST Thu Feb 18 2021 While weak low pressure will pass well to our south and east through tonight. our region will pick up some nuisance light snow and possibly some freezing drizzle.
503 AM CST Thu Feb 18 2021 Water vapor imagery and RAP 500 mb analysis indicated a weak upper level trough scooting across eastern IA early today while a more prominent trough was situated across ND. Surface ridging will build in from the west, sliding overhead Friday night.
Afternoon high temperatures will top out in the lower 20s. Once the light snow ends, mostly cloudy skies will prevail for the balance of the day with high temperatures topping out in the lower 20s. High pressure will provide partly to mostly sunny skies on Friday, with highs in the teens and lower 20s. As the high shifts eastward, increasing cloudiness and a light southerly flow should prevent temps from plunging Friday night.
As of 10Z Thursday morning, a large scale midlevel trough remains across the Central US. Areas with overcast skies have remained much warmer than previously anticipated with temperatures in the mid-teens. Highs this afternoon should reach the low to mid 20s.
We thought about going into coastal Lake County for an advisory as well but the low level flow becomes more shore parallel this morning there. An upper trough will move through the region today and latest satellite showed it over the eastern Dakotas. Soundings across much of the Northland continue to show a saturated area on the lower end of the DGZ so some larger flakes and better chance for at least some light accumulation is expected. The upper trough will exit late tonight into Friday morning and much of the light snow is expected to diminish or end.
The highest totals look to hug the eastern lakeshores and Detroit/St. This consolidates into a longwave trough overhead and is accompanied by a reinforcement of arctic air. The broad cyclonic flow and cooler air mass keep a chance for some snow showers Friday afternoon.
Lift from the trough will combine with increasing moisture, and below freezing temperatures from the surface through the upper levels, to bring light to moderate snowfall to the Northern Edwards Plateau, Concho Valley, and Northwest Hill Country Thursday (which are the regions where models indicate deeper moisture and better lift).
Highs today are expected to get to around 20 across the north, with highs in the lower to middle 20s across east- central and northeast Wisconsin. The flow will turn more northwesterly on Friday as ridging builds in across the western Great Lakes region. Highs on Friday will be a bit cooler, ranging from the middle to upper teens across the north, with highs around 20 across east-central and northeast Wisconsin.
651 AM EST Thu Feb 18 2021 While weak low pressure will pass well to our south and east through tonight. our region will pick up some nuisance light snow and possibly some freezing drizzle.
Additionally, areas of freezing fog will be possible through mid morning across many New Mexico locales which may reduce visibility to less than one mile at times.
Amid this cloud cover and ongoing CAA, temperatures will struggle to rise much today, and have tilted them toward the lower end of guidance. The mean upper trof axis will traverse the region tomorrow leaving a relatively flat westerly flow aloft in its wake.
347 AM CST Thu Feb 18 2021 Current surface analysis places high generally across the northern CONUS, though a weak little trough is meandering across the northern plains. Upper level analysis places trough through the eastern plains into the midwest, with ridge pushing over the Pacific coast. Over our little corner of paradise, some light snow has developed with the aforementioned trough which is now pushing east through south central North Dakota into the James River Valley. For today, temperatures will remain similar to yesterday with a northwesterly breeze on the backside of the aforementioned trough.
Travel could be difficult in some spots, especially from Kerr to Bexar to Atascosa counties where the higher ice and snow accumulations may occur. The final disturbance in the base of the trough will swing through the region today. We have so far seen a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and graupel stretching from the Rio Grande through the I-35 corridor. Snow pack could influence temperatures cooler than what guidance is indicating, especially across the western CWA where heavier snow falls today.
/issued 448 AM EST Thu Feb 18 2021/ The warm front is just to the north of the area this morning, with weak ridging from the Atlantic building in across the peninsula. An area of low pressure will track NE across the FL panhandle and southern GA today, with the cold front then moving through the local area tonight and Friday.
314 AM CST Thu Feb 18 2021 Water vapor imagery and RAP 500 mb analysis indicated a weak upper level trough scooting across eastern IA early today while a more prominent trough was situated across ND. Surface ridging will build in from the west, sliding overhead Friday night.
Precipitation, mainly snow, possibly freezing drizzle will linger through the morning. The H7 trof axis should be across the area by 18z, pushing best moisture to our east and ending precipitation this afternoon.
415 AM CST Thu Feb 18 2021 Warmer temperatures are imminent, but first it appears that much of the forecast area will spend one more day at or below freezing. A few places that see the most sunshine may try to creep just above freezing briefly this afternoon, but most of us will have to wait until Friday.
310 AM CST Thu Feb 18 2021 Precipitation, mainly snow, possibly freezing drizzle will linger through the morning. The H7 trof axis should be across the area by 18z, pushing best moisture to our east and ending precipitation this afternoon.
951 AM EST Thu Feb 18 2021 While weak low pressure will pass well to our south and east through tonight, our region will pick up some light accumulating snow and possibly some freezing drizzle.
Cold and dry weather is expected today, with warmer daytime temperatures Friday.
Late tonight, freezing fog is expected to develop as warmer air starts to overspread the snow pack. Observations are king and I am impressed with the amount of moisture coming out of Mexico on WV as well as the low cloudiness in our southwest. Seminole has seen light snow, reported to be grainy, and given the northward advancement of the low level cloudiness, have little reason to not buy into some light snow down that way. We should see some clearing this afternoon once again before conditions go downhill tonight with a focus on freezing fog.
Thompson (This evening through Friday) Persistent cloud cover across parts of western Oklahoma, is expected to gradually decrease late this afternoon/evening as the low level flow becomes westerly.
210 PM CST Thu Feb 18 2021 Upper trough swings across TX today and pushes off to the east.
Chances for light snow and freezing rain will continue through the day, with a glaze of ice and a half inch or even up to an inch of additional snow will be possible. Temps will be above freezing at higher elevations on the Plateau but the rest of the mid state looks to remain below freezing with little peeks at the sun, so road conditions will likely remain slick with hazardous travel through the overnight hours.
At the surface, a trough is passing through the area from west to east, bringing stronger west to northwest winds behind it.
/issued 550 AM CST Thu Feb 18 2021/ TAF issuance 18/12Z Showers with possible freezing rain will be affecting areas near AEX, clearing out by 18Z. Amid this cloud cover and ongoing CAA, temperatures will struggle to rise much today, and have tilted them toward the lower end of guidance. The mean upper trof axis will traverse the region tomorrow leaving a relatively flat westerly flow aloft in its wake.
Highs will be near records today as they reach the low to mid 80s over much the area.
The lower MVFR ceilings will continue overnight tonight. TD Chattanooga Airport, TN 44 28 43 22 47 / 60 20 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 42 28 39 20 41 / 90 40 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 41 27 40 18 42 / 70 40 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 30 38 19 37 / 100 50 10 0 0.
Afternoon high temperatures will top out in the lower 20s. So bright that sunglasses may be necessary with the high reflectivity of widespread snow cover. Temperatures will be a tad warmer today with highs in the low 20s except for areas northwest of the Illinois River Valley which will only reach the upper teens again today. Once the light snow ends, mostly cloudy skies will prevail for the balance of the day with high temperatures topping out in the lower 20s. High pressure will provide partly to mostly sunny skies on Friday, with highs in the teens and lower 20s. As the high shifts eastward, increasing cloudiness and a light southerly flow should prevent temps from plunging Friday night.
Today's high temperatures will continue to be below freezing, with 20s expected region wide. Another round of freezing fog, favoring the western Panhandles, is expected overnight tonight under fairly light winds. On Friday, skies should clear out completely as ridging aloft moves into the region. Have opted to go with the lowest guidance, especially along the I-40 corridor, in order to account for the melting snowpack regions.
Otherwise mid level trough axis will be the catalyst for a few light snow showers or flurries mainly across northwest and northern portions of the cwa this period. Another wave rounds the base of the trough on Friday afternoon.
Meanwhile, satellite shows cloudy to mostly cloudy skies across the reigon, with snow producing mid and high clouds above the low stratus clouds. This snow is associated with an upper level trough which is currently moving across the region. A Winter Weather Advisory continues for Irion County and the I-10 corridor and by early this evening, the trough axis will be east of our region, with any lingering snow showers across Kimble/Sutton counties dissipating by mid evening. This, in addition to sunny skies and warming at 850 mb, will help bring warmer temperatures Friday, with highs in the mid to upper 40s.
Chances for light snow and freezing rain will continue through the day, with a glaze of ice and a half inch or even up to an inch of additional snow will be possible. Temps will be above freezing at higher elevations on the Plateau but the rest of the mid state looks to remain below freezing with little peeks at the sun, so road conditions will likely remain slick with hazardous travel through the overnight hours. VIS and CIGS are showing signs of improvement, but there is still the possibility for IFR and even LIFR through this evening as light drizzle or freezing drizzle with light snow showers can be expected.
258 PM CST Thu Feb 18 2021 A possibility of fog in the west and relatively warmer temperatures tomorrow highlight the short term forecast. Warmer temperatures expected Friday with low level warm air advection gradually taking place.
We continue to experience periods of drizzle and freezing drizzle across the region this afternoon. Once this wave passes and the seeder-feeder process ends, we lose ice in the clouds again and thus should see more freezing drizzle overnight into Friday morning.
With cold air at the surface, and warm advection occurring aloft, the WV ridges could see a transition to light freezing rain particularly this evening. As the jet streak propagates to the east, wind will back and the aforementioned surface cold frontal passage is likely late Thursday night into Friday morning coincident with large scale subsidence. The Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisories for the Laurel Highlands and WV Ridges have been maintained for additional 2-4 inches of snow accumulation, and ice accumulation of a light glaze possible.
Skies will clear midday tomorrow from east to west and highs near the hi-line south may even break above freezing which has not occurred since the third this month. By Friday, much of NE Montana will see daytime highs above freezing.
Radar returns increasing this morning in advance of an upper level low pressure trough with light snow at Aberdeen. The upper wave slides off to the east tonight, leaving weak ridging overhead on Friday. High temperatures today will be range from the teens east to the lower 20s west, with lows tonight in the single digits either side of zero. Warmer air will begin to infiltrate into the area as this frontal boundary passes through during the course of the upcoming weekend.
The trough axis will be east of our CWA by the start of this period and precipitation will have moved off to the east. In the wake of this trough colder air will move in. High pressure will build over Texas Friday bringing dry weather. Skies will be mostly sunny and temperatures will climb above freezing. Low temperatures will be warmer than tonight, but still very cold ranging from the upper teens to near 30.