Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Current temperatures and dewpoints are in the lower 70s. Highs will be in the mid 80s and lows in the lower 70s. A cold front is forecast to approach the Florida Peninsula between Saturday and Sunday. Yet, the cold front will dissipate before reaching the Florida Keys. In association with this cold front we may see a slight increase in POPs (20 percent) and slightly lower dewpoint (near 70). Through the extended, the ECMWF is suggesting that a second cold front can be near our area by the end of workweek. We will have to wait and see if this cold front is the one that brings a taste of Fall weather to the Florida Keys. Light breezes will prevail today and tonight, followed by a return to northerly breezes on Sunday as a weak cold front bleeds into the Keys.
1001 AM CST Sat Nov 12 2022 Snow showers and flurries on track today with northwest flow/cyclonic flow related to trough energy rotating through the area.
1113 AM MST Sat Nov 12 2022 Updated Aviation Discussion Satellite imagery this morning shows an upper level low centered over SW OR spreading some high clouds into western and central MT while a weak upper level ridge downstream of the low extends north into central MT.
Undercut guidance a bit for low temperatures, with most locations dropping below freezing Sunday morning. All of our counties experienced temperatures at or below freezing this morning, so not anticipating issuing another Freeze Warning for the overnight period.
1040 AM MST Sat Nov 12 2022 A midlevel ridge will quickly move over the area today, and as a result some locations will see a rise in temperatures. This will mainly occur in the higher elevations by about 5 to 10 degrees. The next low pressure begins to move over the Great Basin, and by tomorrow becomes centered over Nevada. Breezy conditions will develop in the southwest flow ahead of this system, but mainly in the higher elevations. Late tomorrow the low pressure passes just southwest of the Four Corners. The bulk of snow should occur between sunset and sunrise with the highest amounts in the West Elks and San Juans.
949 AM CST Sat Nov 12 2022 The cold front has surged through the area, and temperatures are chilly this morning in the low to mid-30's.
Very weak WAA in place with highs just a tad warmer than today, in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
Early afternoon satellite imagery showed a low pressure system positioned over SRN Oregon with attending cloud cover spreading NE across SRN Idaho. In addition, a second low pressure system was noted over NE Alberta.
Visible satellite imagery and streamline analyses place a low level anticyclone over the western North Atlantic. The western flank of the ridge becomes diffuse near the Bahamas and the Keys. A cold front is pressing southeast into the Gulf of Mexico, with the leading edge of cooler and drier air nearing the mouth of the Mississippi. Light breezes will prevail today and tonight, followed by a return to northerly breezes on Sunday as a weak cold front bleeds into the Keys.
1258 PM MST Sat Nov 12 2022 Satellite imagery shows flat ridging over the region as an upper low drifts slowly from OR to the western Great Basin. Snow cover and very limited mixing will prevent us from getting much warmer today despite the warmer air aloft.
1210 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2022 Snow showers and flurries on track today with northwest flow/cyclonic flow related to trough energy rotating through the area.
The cooler air though has finally arrived out of the NNW, with current temps falling into the upper 30s/mid 40s. Abundant cloud also remains in place in the wake of the frontal passage earlier, aided by a broad upper trough axis that continues to gradually traverse eastward over the Midwest/OH Valley areas into the western/central Gulf states. As such, temps may not deviate much from their current trends, with temps later today hovering around the lower/mid 40s.
With the upper flow over North America containing several cut-off lows, Sunday's disturbance will combine with one over the Great Lakes and form over the Northern Plains.
(18Z TAFS) A strong cold front moving across the forecast area at this time will bring low end MVFR CIGS with local upper end IFR levels this afternoon into tonight. A surge of cooler air overnight between 07z-13z may bring LLWS values approaching 20kts, but guidance has been generally on the low side so have not added wording to the forecast. /16 (Now through Sunday) A strong cold front is moving across the forecast area at this time, reaching the I-65 corridor by 18z. Sunday, a day of temperatures around 10 degrees below seasonal norms is expected, topping out in the low 50s over the northwestern quarter of the forecast area to around 60 along the coast.
A low pressure system will move over the forecast area tonight into Sunday, resulting in increased north winds Sunday afternoon. Upper low near the triple point with Nevada/Oregon/California still forecast to drop southeast across Nevada tonight-Sunday morning before continuing east into Arizona Sunday afternoon. Cold front will be progressing south overnight, expecting frontal passage in Las Vegas Metro between 6 am and 9 am Sunday morning. Breezy behind the cold front across much of the area Sunday with gusts generally 20-30 mph.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) Have a weak ridge over the region but a strong upper low over OR/Nrn CA this afternoon will dive down across NV tonight. This low will move into AZ Sunday and into NM Sunday night. Had freezing temperatures across much of the area this morning, Tatum was the lowest at 18 degrees. Tonight should be several degrees warmer but should still see freezing temperatures across SE NM, Nrn Permian Basin, and the higher elevations. Late Sunday night may see high wind in the Guadalupes as the upper trough approaches.
Otherwise, weather will be quiet today with temps in the 30s close to the foothills and over higher ridges, but only 20s w/ poor mixing elsewhere. The small scale ridge that will provide dry weather today, will gets pushed southeast by an approaching upper low from the north that will slide into northeast Montana late tonight, then across southeast Montana Sunday. TWH Overall the pattern in the extended remains the same, with a high amplitude ridge over the west coast, and troughing over the central plains.
200 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2022 (Today and tonight) High pressure will dominate our weather the next 24 hours, with below normal temperatures persisting. Temperatures as of 3 AM were in the low to mid 30s and with several more hours of cooling, most areas should see temperatures dip at or just below freezing prior to sunrise. Skies will be mostly sunny today, with afternoon highs only in the low to mid 50s.
Current surface analysis shows high pressure now centered over south central Canada into the Dakotas, with frontal boundary along the lee of the Rockies. A dry, but cold, weekend is in store as high pressure slowly moves over and east of the region. The ridge will help to bring slightly warmer air to much of the area later today, with highs in the 30s from northeast WY to the Black Hills area and southwest SD. A passing cold front late tonight into Sunday will bring some colder air back to most of the area, with highs in the 20s and lower 30s, some teens across far northern SD. The upper level pattern will remain quite stagnant, with large trough covering the central into eastern US and a couple of systems moving across the region from western Canada.
1142 AM CST Sat Nov 12 2022 (Today and tonight) High pressure will dominate our weather the next 24 hours, with below normal temperatures persisting. Temperatures as of 3 AM were in the low to mid 30s and with several more hours of cooling, most areas should see temperatures dip at or just below freezing prior to sunrise. Skies will be mostly sunny today, with afternoon highs only in the low to mid 50s.
A weak pre- frontal trough will shift southeastward across the Florida peninsula this afternoon, bringing increased moisture to east central Florida. Afternoon highs will be a little warmer than normal for this time of year with highs in the low 80s across the north and low to mid 80s across the south. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s.
However, there is not expected to be a significant increase in wind speeds until mid to late Sunday morning when cyclogenesis in southeastern Colorado increases in response to the next upper level low to traverse the 4- corners region. Low level warm advection on the strength of the breezy south winds late Sunday morning through afternoon will help push temperatures a couple degrees warmer than today's highs, the increase limited in part to increasing cloud cover with bases around 5,000 ft AGL.
1024 AM MST Sat Nov 12 2022 Not too much change today as ridging will be over the area today and bring mainly quiet weather. However, it should be a couple of degrees warmer with the air mass slowly modifying.
Average highs around this time of the year are in the low 40s and average lows in the low 20s.
851 AM MST Sat Nov 12 2022 Satellite imagery this morning shows an upper level low centered over SW OR spreading some high clouds into western and central MT while a weak upper level ridge downstream of the low extends north into central MT.
238 PM EST Sat Nov 12 2022 Unseasonably mild southwesterly flow will occur ahead of a cold front that will move east across the Carolinas this evening.
Regardless of if the snow amounts end up being at the higher or lower end of the broad probabilistic spectrum, we believe some travel impacts are likely-- particularly during the late night and early morning period when temps are coldest and where the heaviest snow bands set up and persist. The deepening upper level trough will sweep across the state Saturday into Sunday. This will give better fetch and elongate the time of the colder air over the warmer lake. A trough of negatively tilted temperatures at 850 mb could bring as low as -12C air into the region. So expect 1 to 3 inches in Kalamazoo County with the highest amounts the further west you go over the totality of the event.
Clouds and a few showers will proceed and accompany the front, followed by some slightly cooler drier air as high pressure builds in.
even fog With weak high pressure over the FA, there is not much hope for a change in the persistent features, meaning seeing a break from the clouds and flurries. Wind speeds will remain on the lower end, which would minimize impacts.
255 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2022 The highlight of the short term portion of the forecast is trying to time the clearing across the Quad State tonight possibly into Sunday morning. Flurries will be possible until the low clouds exit. Now that all of the higher clouds have exited the area, satellite clearly shows solid overcast conditions throughout the region this afternoon, with little sign of a bonafide clearing trend. Very steep low-level lapse rates are supporting some scattered flurries from the low cloud deck, so a chance of flurries was inserted to the forecast through the evening.
1154 AM CST Sat Nov 12 2022 (Today through Sunday afternoon) Pretty chilly morning on tap for all of W TX and SE NM as temperatures already at or below freezing for many locations as of 0730z. Despite some higher clouds moving overhead, radiational cooling pattern has been suitable to dip temps down to the freezing mark for areas north of the Pecos river. Tatum, NM has already hit the low-20s, the coldest spot currently in the our region. No precip expected as surface ridging and zonal flow aloft will dictate the short term pattern.
(This afternoon through Sunday Night) Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows an upper-level trough over the Great Lakes region with drier air rounding its base pushing into TN. Much colder air is certainly in place today in the wake of last night's cold front, and temperatures at this hour are still in the 30's areawide. That aforementioned trough will exit to the NE late tonight, and cloud cover will slowly clear out, leaving behind mostly clear skies for Sunday.
Freezing fog will be possible, with the highest chance over western Corson County. Elsewhere, we start to lose some of the lower level moisture after daybreak Sunday. While to low itself will be sinking south from CO to NM, a trough will extend across our area during the day Sunday. It will shift over our eastern counties Sunday night, enhanced by the 500mb trough sinking across eastern MT and through the Dakotas.
Hazardous road conditions are likely to develop across northwest Indiana and southwest Michigan overnight tonight as temperatures drop well below freezing.
Will need to keep an eye on the potential for fog/freezing fog tonight as temperatures fall into the low to middle 20s.
1129 AM CST Sat Nov 12 2022 The cold front has surged through the area, and temperatures are chilly this morning in the low to mid-30's.
This afternoon, breezy southwesterly winds continue as a cold front approaches the area from the west.
Some partial clearing in the wake of this wave will allow temperatures to fall into the mid to upper 20s area-wide tonight as the cold air mass assoicated with the main upper trough deepens over the area.
Overall, this will keep temperatures slightly warmer compared to previous mornings. As the mid/upper level low shifts inland over Nevada on Sunday, brief offshore winds will develop over the higher terrain of interior portions across the Bay Area.
(Tonight) Lingering cloud cover prevails over the central TN Valley this Sat afternoon, as a broad upper trough pattern continues to traverse eastward into the Midwest/lower MS Valley regions. NNW winds are also entrenched across most of the region in the wake of the frontal passage earlier this morning, which is aiding the influx of cooler/drier air into the mid TN Valley.
Sfc temperatures currently in the mid 30s with even warmer ground temperatures, so any flakes that do make the journey to the ground will melt on impact. Low temperatures tonight will fall into the lower to upper 20s with wind chills as low as the mid-teens in some spots, proving tonight to be about 15-20 degrees below-normal since normal climatological low temperatures for this time of year are in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
As temperatures broadly warmed up into the 40s and 50s across the high country, with 60s in the low deserts, a cold front lurked upstream. This incoming cold front is tied to a weak area of low pressure that is forecast to invade Arizona tomorrow. High temperatures Sunday will be cooler than Saturday's, except for the valleys near the Little Colorado River and Chinle Wash.
Stable high pressure to keep temperatures cooler than average. One caveat will be across the Mission Valley where existing moisture in the lower levels could allow for very light snow. With the northerly flow on Sunday, the thinking is that the low clouds will persist over northwest Montana, possibly improving in the Flathead Valley in the afternoon.
825 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2022 It's a cold evening across the area with temperatures mainly sitting in the low 30s. (This afternoon through Sunday Night) Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows an upper-level trough over the Great Lakes region with drier air rounding its base pushing into TN. Much colder air is certainly in place today in the wake of last night's cold front, and temperatures at this hour are still in the 30's areawide. That aforementioned trough will exit to the NE late tonight, and cloud cover will slowly clear out, leaving behind mostly clear skies for Sunday.
A low pressure system will move over the forecast area tonight into Sunday, resulting in increased north winds Sunday afternoon. This system and associated cold front move into our area overnight and tomorrow morning. Some light snow is possible tonight in the high terrain of northwestern Inyo and Esmeralda Counties, and tomorrow across northeastern portions of Lincoln and Mohave Counties. Upper low near the triple point with Nevada/Oregon/California still forecast to drop southeast across Nevada tonight-Sunday morning before continuing east into Arizona Sunday afternoon. Cold front will be progressing south overnight, expecting frontal passage in Las Vegas Metro between 6 am and 9 am Sunday morning. Breezy behind the cold front across much of the area Sunday with gusts generally 20-30 mph.
*Wind chills approaching around 15 below zero by end of week The latest model runs have trended to a little quicker on the progression of the frontal passage across the northwest Sandhills resulting in cooler air infiltrating this area sooner. Southerly winds ahead of the front should advect some warmer air from the south into the area prior to the frontal passage thus most locations should warm into the upper 30s to low 40s Sunday. If the front is slower to move through then could see temperatures across southwest Nebraska reach near 50, however a quick advance of the front could keep temperatures considerably cooler.
Cold west to northwest wind and a crossing trough of low pressure will spread scattered snow showers across the region through Sunday.
148 PM PST Sat Nov 12 2022 Cool conditions with increasing onshore winds will prevail as an upper low moves across the area tonight into Sunday.
Temperatures should warm into the low to mid 50s deg F, which is ~10 deg below average for mid-November.
Hazardous road conditions are likely to develop across northwest Indiana and southwest Michigan overnight tonight as due to the combination of lake effect snow showers and temperatures dropping below freezing.
424 PM EST Sat Nov 12 2022 Late this afternoon, an upper level low was centered over the southern Jame Bay vicinity with an upper level trough axis extending into the western Great Lakes to MS Valley. An upper level ridge axis meanwhile extended through the southern Rockies while a closed upper level was over the western Conus. However, the axis of the trough remains to the west of the area. This evening and tonight, the axis of the 500 mb trough will continue to move to the east and northeast and move east of the area near sunrise on Sunday. No accumulation should occur outside of a dusting in the highest elevations of Pine Mountain, Black Mtn, and the Flatwoods area of Pike County where a quarter of an inch could fall.
900 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2022 Trying to figure out a reason why the low clouds across much of the Mid-South will clear out overnight. The 850 mb thermal trough over the region attm will slowly move east overnight as upper ridging builds into the area.
Areas that get in the upper 20s will experience longer duration sub-freezing temperatures and thus greater impacts. For tomorrow, model guidance show high pressure building over the area. In response to this, dry conditions will allow for afternoon temperatures to climb into the high 40s to mid 50s.
A weak low pressure area will be moving through the interior this evening bringing a chance of showers. The low will move into Nevada late tonight with lingering light snow showers near the crest.
604 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2022 (Tonight) Lingering cloud cover prevails over the central TN Valley this Sat afternoon, as a broad upper trough pattern continues to traverse eastward into the Midwest/lower MS Valley regions. NNW winds are also entrenched across most of the region in the wake of the frontal passage earlier this morning, which is aiding the influx of cooler/drier air into the mid TN Valley.
Flurries are continuing under portions of the low- level cloud deck as well, with the only area of clear skies being across south central SD at this time. Increasing southeasterly winds and high cloud cover will develop through the Sunday morning hours, as high pressure drifts further east. Freezing fog will be possible, with the highest chance over western Corson County. Elsewhere, we start to lose some of the lower level moisture after daybreak Sunday. While to low itself will be sinking south from CO to NM, a trough will extend across our area during the day Sunday. It will shift over our eastern counties Sunday night, enhanced by the 500mb trough sinking across eastern MT and through the Dakotas.
553 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2022 (This afternoon through Sunday Night) Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows an upper-level trough over the Great Lakes region with drier air rounding its base pushing into TN. Much colder air is certainly in place today in the wake of last night's cold front, and temperatures at this hour are still in the 30's areawide. That aforementioned trough will exit to the NE late tonight, and cloud cover will slowly clear out, leaving behind mostly clear skies for Sunday.
Early morning water vapor satellite imagery is showing a band of moisture pushing southeast through the Florida Peninsula ahead of a cold front. The cooler and drier airmass behind the front will mainly be noticeable from around Interstate 4 north today, tonight, and Monday, while temperatures will only drop slightly over southwest Florida.
Modestly warmer conditions expected today as light southeast winds return ahead of upper storm system currently digging over central California.
205 AM EST Sun Nov 13 2022 Clearing skies along with much cooler and drier weather will be over the region through Monday.
Cooler than average temperatures and dry conditions will be in place over the next couple of days as the Canadian air mass shifts across the state. Beginning as rain across west AR during the day Mon, precip will expand across the state by Mon evening, turning to a wintry mix and eventually snow, as temps drop below freezing. For now, forecasting rain transitioning to a rain/snow mix, then snow (where surface temps drop below freezing). High pressure and dry conditions are forecast to return following this system.
High temperatures will be slightly warmer than yesterday in the mid to upper 50s, approaching 60 degrees. Overnight lows will be warmer than the past couple of nights thanks to the increasing moisture, the associated cloud cover, and continued elevated wind speeds. An upper level low, currently located in the Intermountain West, will work its way east through the Desert Southwest through the day today, approaching the West Texas area by early Monday morning. As synoptic lift increases ahead of this upper low, we may see some light shower development, primarily in our southern and eastern counties between 10-12Z Monday.
A subtle trough embedded in the flow has generated some cirrus over TX/OK and is drifting eastward. Our ongoing Freeze Warning remains in place through morning, and anyone with outdoor pets and sensitive plants should bring them inside as temps will drop below freezing. Areas that get in the upper 20s will experience longer duration sub-freezing temperatures and thus greater impacts. For tomorrow, model guidance show high pressure building over the area. In response to this, dry conditions will allow for afternoon temperatures to climb into the high 40s to mid 50s.
Satellite imagery showing weak upper level low has exited Southeast Oregon and will continue south-southeast this evening through Sunday morning. Stratus/fog may also form north of Jerome after midnight and in the Lower and Upper Treasure Valleys though confidence is lower across Southwest Idaho. Upper level ridge will keep colder conditions and the inversion in place across much of the area especially Southeast Oregon.
Sfc temperatures currently in the mid 30s with even warmer ground temperatures, so any flakes that do make the journey to the ground will melt on impact. Low temperatures tonight will fall into the lower to upper 20s with wind chills as low as the mid-teens in some spots, proving tonight to be about 15-20 degrees below-normal since normal climatological low temperatures for this time of year are in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Afternoon highs Sun will struggle to reach the upper 40s, before a veering low level flow allows highs to climb into the lower/mid 50s later in the day Mon.
Otherwise, relatively benign short term forecast for now with a brief lull in activity has high pressure quickly pushes north across the area post-front.
The pattern then turns dry for Sunday and Monday as temperatures remain 10-15 degrees cooler than normal.