Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cool and dry weather will continue through Tuesday in the Ohio Valley, as the NW flow on the backside of an eastern CONUS trof gives way to upper ridging building in from the Plains and the Upper Midwest. Expect most locations to bottom out in the lower 40s Tuesday morning, in fairly similar fashion to this morning.
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SUNK DOWN ALONG GULF COAST. UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR TUCUMCARI NEW MEXICO AT 04Z. ENERGY ASSOCATED WITH UPPER LOW HAS FIRED OFF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER TO EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND 40 ON AREA RIDGES. THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK APPEARS RELATIVE COOL AND UNSETTLED AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS STATES SLOWLY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
242 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015 A strong upper level low is currently moving slowly across the southern Plains this morning. Southerly flow ahead of this feature is trying to advect moisture into the forecast area, but persistent northeasterly flow at the surface--courtesy of high pressure over the western Great Lakes--is keeping much of this moisture at bay. Somewhat better chances for showers/isolated thunderstorms will begin to kick in later this afternoon into tonight, as the center of the upper low gets closer to the region. For the rest of the forecast area, a combination of somewhat chilly air aloft and cloud cover moving up from the south will help limit temperatures today and Tuesday, with highs generally around 60 over southwestern Missouri, to the the low to mid 60s over central Missouri, where cloud cover won't be as extensive.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARM UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST BY TUESDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN BACK ONSHORE WITH A MODEST COOLING TREND.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE PACIFIC WILL BRING MUCH WARMER WEATHER TO THE SILVER STATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SOME TEENS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS. MONDAY WILL BE WARMER. AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. IT APPEARS MOST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION AND INSTEAD ARE BACK TO A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING AS THEY CROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD RESULT IS COOLER TEMPS. DRY AND WARMING AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH.
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER WRN WA/OR WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND AMPLIFY EVEN MORE.
617 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. UPDATE 0610 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED WEATHER GRIDS AND POPS TO BETTER FIT AREA OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR NORTHEASTERN NOVA SCOTIA. 10" AT BEST W/THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE ENE SIDE OF MAINE.
156 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
Aloft a large trough will slowly shift eastward across the eastern CONUS. Lows tonight and tomorrow night will be in the lower to mid 40s with a few sheltered locations dropping into the upper 30s. Highs Monday will be in the lower to mid 60s.
THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE THE AVERAGE MARK FOR LATE APRIL WITH READINGS ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE EAST COAST AND PERHAPS JUST ONE OR TWO DEGREES LOWER ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER BY THEN.
TODAY AND TONIGHT STEADY WESTWARD EXPANSION OF LOWER HEIGHTS ATTENDANT TO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC LEAVING SE MICHIGAN NOW FIRMLY WITHIN THE BROAD CYCLONIC WESTERN PERIPHERY.
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH HERE AT THE SHELBY COUNTY AIRPORT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN. BEHIND A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL SEND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES ON MONDAY. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA IN A COOL AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS. THE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED STORMS ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS WARMER AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER PENETRATES INLAND.
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR THE NM/TX BORDER AND SW FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR CIRRUS CLOUDS TO STREAM INTO THE AREA AND KEEP CONDITIONS PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY. AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS EAST THROUGH OK/TX TODAY. WE DONT BEGIN TO SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS UNTIL LATER ON TUESDAY AND SHOWERS SHOULD START IN THE AFTERNOON.
/ISSUED 415 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/ GOES IR/WV IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER. EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE TX MCS WERE FLOWING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW.
335 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE FROM WESTERN HUDSON BAY INTO NEBRASKA WILL MOVE LITTLE TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FROM YESTERDAY.
THIS HIGH WILL LIKELY KEEP THINGS RAIN FREE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SCOOTS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN OUT LEAVING ONLY SOME CLOUDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES. AND LOW PRESSURE IN TEXAS.
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA TODAY. FURTHER SOUTH WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH A IMPROVING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FAVORING THE COOLER 2M NAM TEMPS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA. FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING EAST AND SOUTH OF WESTERN KANSAS.
352 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF TODAYS WEATHER IN WHAT SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY. THEREFORE PREFERRED THE GUIDANCE VALUES WHICH HAD 30S IN THE LOW LYING LOCATIONS FOR NORTHWEST IA. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.
233 AM MST MON APR 27 2015 LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR EAST WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA TODAY AND TUESDAY. WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS APPROACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME. WHILE HEIGHTS ALOFT REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE TODAY AS WE STILL SEE INFLUENCE FROM THE EXITING TROUGH TO OUR EAST. THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL EDGE INTO WESTERN ARIZONA WITH 500MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING 580DM. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE WARMING TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT OVERHEAD. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD PEAK OUT IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE DESERTS.
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE MOVING THROUGH A RIDGE OF A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACNW. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER INTO TOMORROW WITH DECREASING SHOWERS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.
443 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015 (Today and Tonight) A strong upper level low will move east from eastern New Mexico into Oklahoma during the next 24 hours. Highs will range from in the lower 70s across the Big Country to the lower 80s across the Heartland and Northwest Hill Country. For tonight, will continue the highest chances of rain across the northern half of the area due to wrap around moisture associated with the upper level low. Also, a cold front will move south across West Central Texas, with winds becoming north at 10 to 20 mph.
IN A REGION OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND LOW-MID LVL WAA IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. SLIDING EAST WITH THE UPPER LOW. RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF BY TUESDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS TEXAS. FOR TEMPS TONIGHT HAVE TRENDED WITH THE COOLER GUIDANCE IN THE DRY AIRMASS WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM MINERAL WELLS TO EAGLE PASS. THERE WERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE EAST. DURING THIS PERIOD THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ALONG THE RED RIVER REACHING ARKANSAS BY TUESDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A TROUGH TRAILING BEHIND THE LOW FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO THE WESTERN PANHANDLE. THIS WILL BRING COOLER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. SOME 70S ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER AREAS. ANY REMAINING SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY WILL END AS MID/UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
BECAUSE OF THE SURFACE RIDGING AND A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW. AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO WOBBLE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U. THIS TROUGH DROPS A LITTLE MORE SOUTH TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND PUSHING EAST AS A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT 500 MB WITH THE TROUGH AXIS BRUSHING SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AROUND NOON.
\/HODANISH WEAK TROUGHINESS WILL BE OVER THE REGION AS MAIN LOW MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH SOME AREAS ON THE PLAINS TOUCHING THE FREEZING MARK.
658 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015 A TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY.
351 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015 Chilly and dry northwest flow at the surface has kept temperatures in the lower to middle 40s this morning, with scattered clouds. With prevailing surface ridging for the first part of the week, expect the E/NE winds to persist through at least mid week. At this point widespread frost is not anticipated, as temperatures will be too warm, and winds should stay up around 5 kts, but can't rule out a very isolated area of frost or two near the IA/MO border where sheltering from the wind and low terrain could contribute to temperatures in the lower to middle 30s and some very patchy frost. This dry pattern will likely persist until late this week, before the pattern switches back to a potentially active pattern for the Plains and the Lower Missouri River region.
TEMPERATURES WERE A LITTLE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE THE BOOST TO FINALLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. ON MONDAY THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WARMER AGAIN MONDAY IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
THE MODELS THEN SHOW THE ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA TONIGHT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM THE WEST.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND STALL OFFSHORE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EAST. A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON MONDAY WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD REACHING THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE A SECOND UPPER LOW FORMING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY DIVES SOUTHWARD. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER RANGING FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ALONG AND WEST OF I-65.
With the upper level ridge shifting eastward on Tuesday, high temperatures will soar into the 70s to near 80 in some places.
331 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
/15/ CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IS FOR THE UPPER LOW TO OPEN UP AND MOVE EAST OF THE ARKLAMISS.
326 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015 OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS EMERGES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EASTWARD. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST.
1119 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015 THE 00Z NAM HAS JUST COME IN AND IS SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE TOP OF THE LOW THAT IS SHIFTING ONTO THE NEW MEXICO PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY YIELD AREAS OF FOG IN THE LOWER CENTRAL VALLEYS LATER TONIGHT AS DIURNAL COOLING DRIVES TEMPERATURES TOWARD DEWPOINT VALUES. DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY'S. THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL TAKE BETTER HOLD ON TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS WED/WED EVENING. MODELS SHOW THAT THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE FIRST SPLITTING TROUGH WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH ON THU. ALSO SOME LOW PRESSURE ENERGY SPLITTING OFF THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL STRETCH OUT ALONG THE CA COAST.
256 AM PDT Mon Apr 27 2015 High pressure will bring dry weather and above normal temperatures to the area through the week. Ridge axis will shift east across the state and into the Great Basin today into Tuesday.
320 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND BRINGING A WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK.
COMPLEX PATTERN TAKING SHAPE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A STRONG U/L LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RAP AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO OUR AREA. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. AS A RESULT A DEFORMATION PRECIP BAND MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW.
MORE OF A SW COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AN ONSET OF WEAK WAA WL BEGIN TO TAP WARMER AIR OVER THE CNTRL CONUS.
AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP ATMS STABLE ENOUGH TO LIMIT PRECIP TO THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN AREA. UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION. BUT WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED SE TO NW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.
Lows tonight will likely drop back into the lower-middle 50s for most areas, but some of our cooler Bluegrass areas may drop back into the mid-upper 40s once again. High pressure will build back into the region resulting mostly sunny skies for Saturday and mostly clear skies for Saturday night. An increasing southerly flow will allow slightly warmer temperatures with highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s for Saturday.
A cool start to the day today as overnight lows have fallen into the lower 50s for much of the area. On Saturday waves of energy begin to eject out of the southwest US as the main trough lifts northeastward over the central Rockies. Moisture surges northward as the low level flow becomes more southerly out ahead of the system.
A GLORIOUS WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEANS, WITH A COOL, DRY AIR MASS SPREAD ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED JUST TO OUR WEST. THE RIDGE WILL SLIP ACROSS OVERNIGHT, SETTING US UP WITH RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
232 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TODAY WILL BE OVER DELMARVA SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AND COOL AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Will continue to go with a dry forecast today as upper ridge axis moves across the area.
AT THIS POINT ANOTHER HARD FREEZE APPEARS UNLIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH AS THERE ARE ONLY A FEW SPOTS AT OR CLOSE TO FREEZING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OUT OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RISE INTO MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO AZ, LEAVING SOME MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTHERLY FLOW, MOSTLY OVER THE MTNS. TEMPS A BIT WARMER BUT STILL COOLER THAN NORMAL.
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ONE DIFFERENCE TODAY IS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING FARTHER OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. PRESSURE RISES ASSOC/W HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SHOULD RESULT IN A NE BREEZE LATE TONIGHT (06-12Z SAT). -VINCENT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW (CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA AT 15Z) WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE ROCKIES SAT/SAT NIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ ATTENDANT THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION /LATENT HEAT RELEASE/ ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT. WILL AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND RESULT IN ADDITIONAL HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECT LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST. 32/DAVIS /ISSUED 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/ MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1024MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. UPPER HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY BY SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.
143 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OVERNIGHT.
1050 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015 The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. The high CAPE/weak deep layer shear profiles support an enhanced heavy downpour threat for most thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The highest threat areas will be near the Cascades as well as the Lewiston/Pullman region and the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle.
142 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL MID-STATE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG WITH LIGHT SFC FLOW.
243 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA.
419 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING HAS TAKEN HOLD OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY. EXPECT IT TO FIZZLE OUT UNDER THE PRESENCE OF THE STRONG RIDGING. BUT MAINLY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DYING UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND GENERALLY OF THE HIGH CIRRUS/STRATO VARIETY. OTHER THAN THE HIGH CLOUD COVER. STILL LOOKING A DECENT RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING FROM THE 40S OVERNIGHT TO THE LOW TO MID 50S BY TOMORROW NIGHT. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH HEIGHT RISES AND A RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN US INTO THE PLAINS STATES.
244 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015 PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDES SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN TONIGHT WITH THE INITIAL WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA. 19Z NEPHANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS MODEL ANALYSIS OF A LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. FIRST ELONGATED TROUGH IS SHEARING AS IT WORKS NORTH INTO THE MEAN RIDGE ALOFT. MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE LONG WAVE LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE REGION.
Low clouds beginning to erode this afternoon as a warm front lifts north across the CWA. West Central TX will be favorably located in the right entrance region of the a N-S oriented jet streak over the High Plains, enhancing mesoscale ascent over the southern Plains.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS AN ADDITIONAL H5 VORT MAX APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND H25 DIVERGENCE INCREASES AS A STRONG TROUGH DIGS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. TROUGH AXIS TILTS NEGATIVE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE MARINE LAYER IS DEEP ENOUGH AND WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO HANG ON TO THE CHANCE OF DRIZZLE FOR THE WEST PART. THE MAIN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES HEADED VERY SLOWLY IN THE DIRECTION OF THE LOWLANDS. THERE IS STILL TIME FOR THE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE LOWLANDS. BUT I WILL BE CONSERVATIVE AND EXPAND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MORE OF THE LOWLANDS THIS EVENING. THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE WILL SHIFT OVER W WA ON SATURDAY. THE MAIN EFFECT SHOULD BE TO RESTRICT CONVECTION TO THE CASCADES RATHER THAN HAVE CELLS DRIFTING W OVER THE LOWLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE B.
359 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE CLEAR AIR BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH PASSED OVER THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST ARIZONA TO SOUTHEAST UTAH DURING THE NIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO UTAH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXTENDING THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
-HOWERTON LITTLE CHANGE IN LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH PERSISTENT TROUGHING IN WESTERN US AND RIDGING IN THE EAST.
A DOME OF SHALLOW RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. BOUNDARY LAYER ONSHORE FLOW ASCENDING THIS COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO YIELD MVFR CLOUDINESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN SATURDAY MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY RETREATS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. /ISSUED 1031 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/ FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. ALONG WITH WEAK/FLAT RIDGING SLIDING OVERHEAD. THAT WILL CHANGE SATURDAY AS THE FRONT SURGES NORTH THROUGH THE REGION AMID A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP WRN CONUS TROF.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN CONUS. LATEST OBS SHOWED A 100-KT 300-MB JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. AN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE HUDSON BAY WILL HELP MAINTAIN A CONFLUENT ZONE OVER THE NERN CWA.
A weak surface trof will slide southward today, reaching the Ohio River by this evening and then washing out. High temperatures should be in the lower and middle 70s. High pressure will build in tonight, especially over northern and eastern sections of the forecast area. The high will move to the mid-Atlantic coast tomorrow. In the Ohio Valley we will experience light return flow and increasing thicknesses, leading to slightly warmer temperatures.
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WERE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND REACH NORTHERN COLORADO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT.
A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.