Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
643 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Low pressure in south central Canada, just north of the Minnesota border will dive southeast into the Great Lakes region tonight into Monday morning. The 500mb low aloft which is driving the surface system will provide the dynamics to drive a cold front south through the CWFA late tonight and Monday morning. Forecast soundings are pretty dry in the low levels though, and MOS PoPs are correspondingly low. Clouds and southerly flow ahead of the front tonight should keep temperatures at least 10 degrees warmer tonight than they were last night.
710 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 A strong upper level trough will pivot northeastward across the middle Atlantic states tonight.
As colder air wraps into the departing system, rain will likely mix with or change to wet snow late tonight into early Monday over the higher elevations of the Alleghenies. Added a few tenths of an inch above 1500 feet to going snow totals there, with some areas see an inch or a little more at the highest peaks. Lows will drop into the lower 30s.
/issued 256 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017/ For tonight, a cold front is expected to enter northwest Oklahoma and progress southward through the morning hours. Behind the cold front, nearly steady temperatures are expected across northern Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon.
Pcpn will start out as a mix of drizzle/freezing dizzle but should begin to change to light snow by 08z near the WY border and then further south towards Denver by 11z give or take an hour. Radars are showing a cold front moving southward from around Fort Collins to Akron. There is an upper trough to our north and northeast. The low level wind progs show all north and northeasterly upslope flow for the plains into the foothills tonight and Monday. Forecast soundings are still showing freezing drizzle a good possibility tonight, with mostly light snow after 12Z Monday morning. The highest pops will be from the divide eastward in the mountains and the foothills.
/issued 241 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017/ Today's warm up will be short lived as the strong, quick moving cold front is still on track for Monday morning.
That cold will allow for some snow accumulation along the higher elevations tonight. Otherwise, the wind advisory remains in effect for the higher elevations. Passage of the trough axis and rapid dry advection will end the snow potential quickly during the predawn of Monday.
Tomorrow a dry cold front will progress through the area, but too little too late to have much of an impact on high temperatures for the day. Highs are expected to range from the lower 60s in the far north to the lower 70s in the far south. The cold front will keep tomorrow night chilly, with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
If the clouds do not move out then overnight temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than current forecast, however confidence is low. Freezing temperatures will likely impact the entire forecast area tonight. Chattanooga Airport, TN 32 63 41 64 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 31 61 40 61 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 30 60 39 61 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 28 58 37 60 / 10 0 0 0 NC.
A cold front will move into North Texas Monday morning and should reach the Metroplex TAF sites around midday with winds becoming westerly around 16Z and north/northwest between 17 and 18Z. Wind speeds will increase through the afternoon as the front moves south and high pressure builds in from the Central Plains.
High pressure builds in over the southeast allowing local winds to diminish some while veering to the north through the day.
High temperatures tomorrow will increase back to near or slightly above normal in the upper 70s and lower 80s as flow aloft becomes more southwesterly ahead of a weak trough that move south and east into the Midwest tomorrow.
654 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Water vapor imagery showing upper trough slowly sliding southeast over northern Minnesota. Meanwhile, farther northwest a few widely scattered/isolated showers have developed under the cooler air aloft. The upper trough is forecast to drop south and east into Monday and this should draw at least some small PoPs into the north by morning.
We will likely see some spotty areas outside of the warning touch around the freezing mark, but it should not be widespread enough to include in the warning at this time. This trend should continue through the afternoon and skies should eventually clear as the upper trough swings across the Appalachians. By later tonight into early Monday morning skies should have cleared and winds should have diminished enough for the lows to drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s across the north. Not much warming has taken place today and there could be some areas on the fringes of the Warning that may reach into the lower 30s tonight.
Medium Southerly flow returning a milder airmass back to the area ahead of a cold front that will swing through overnight. Medium Cold advection regime with lower level thermal trough in place. Good deal of cloud cover expected with cold air aloft/low level thermal trough idea.
Winds will continue to steadily subside through Monday afternoon as high pressure builds in from the west.
1041 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Currently - Cool dry air continues to sweep southeastward across the Florida Keys in wake of an earlier cold front. Temperatures are now in the upper 60s to near 70 with dew point temperatures in the low to mid 50s. Short term Update - The high pressure responsible for the fresh northerly breezes will migrate from the western Gulf of Mexico towards the Florida Peninsula. Expect temperatures to range from around 60 in the extreme Upper Keys to the upper 60s in the Lower Keys. High pressure centered in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico will migrate eastwards toward Florida overnight.
931 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Strengthening low pressure will move north along the Atlantic Coast tonight. A secondary cold front will cross the region late Monday.
At the surface, cold front stretches across southern SD and continues to push south. Cold front is expected to continue tracking south tonight and by sunrise will be approaching the Red River. Broad upper trough will encompass the northern Plains Wed with zonal flow over the central/southern Plains resulting in warming sw downslope winds. A strong cold front will continue blasting south across the region overnight, with breezy north winds and cooler temperatures in its wake.
Based on the overall trends, decided to adjust the forecast accordingly, with a faster west to east progression of ongoing convection and any new showers and storms that form later this morning as a cold front pushes across the area. Temperatures will likely max out today at slightly cooler than normal values in the upper 70s due to widespread cloud cover and precipitation. A warming trend is on tap for Tuesday, with highs forecast to max out in the lower 80s beneath mostly clear skies.
There were several other weak perturbations/vorticity maxima in the flow, as they rotate around the backside of the upper troughing, but any additional rains were very isolated further west. This may be able to provide some spotty light rain, but the better chances for showers and storms comes with diurnal/peak heating this afternoon/early evening, coincident with gradually cooling air aloft with the upper trough axis. What appears to be the last in the long series of short waves rotating around the departing upper level trough moves through on Tuesday.
Low pressure was over the northern great lakes with a cold front extending south across central Indiana. cooler and drier air will spread east across our region tonight. An upper trough move into the great lakes and couple of upper disturbances may produce low chance of thunderstorms over northern portions Monday afternoon and a slight chance of showers over northern and eastern sections Tuesday. High pressure will dominate our weather mid week. cooler and dry weather will occur overnight as a cold front across central Indiana moves on to the east. Models indicate high pressure over the northern plains will build into the middle Mississippi valley by Monday. Lows will range from the upper 50s northwest to the lower 60s south. An upper trough will be across the great lakes Monday and Tuesday.
Today will be dry across the area as an upper level ridge continues to build over the Northern Rockies. Ahead of this, temperatures will once again be in the lower 90s for much of the area. Tomorrow evening a cold front will cross the area, along with some thunderstorms. The low-levels will still be fairly dry, with westerly winds throughout much of the day.
318 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 07Z water vapor imagery shows northwest flow across the central and northern plains with the mid level ridge over the west coast. At the surface, a broad area of high pressure was over the central plains with the deeper moisture shunted south along the Red River and to the south. Highs today are expected to be a little warmer than yesterday based on some weak low level warm air advection. Based on mixing the boundary layer to near 800MB, have highs in the lower and middle 80s. Lows tonight are expected to be in the lower 60s. Some weak southerly winds and warm air moving north is forecast to keep temperatures a little warmer tonight. will still be under northwesterly flow aloft as the mid-level trough continues to shift east of the Great Lakes region.
322 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 The Northland will remain under the influence of a large, vertically-stacked area of low pressure over eastern Canada. This low, which is over northeast Ontario as of early this morning, will lift into western Quebec this afternoon. Highs will range from the low 60s near the Canadian border into the inland Arrowhead, to the middle and upper 60s across the rest of the forecast area. High pressure will build into the Northland Tuesday. The more plentiful sunshine will make for a warmer day. High pressure will bring dry weather to the Northland on Tuesday night, as we remain in northwest flow aloft.
400 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Temperatures will rebound a few degrees today as the upper level jet shifts east and takes some of the cooler air with it. With the loss of this cooler air aloft the hit and miss instability showers and thunderstorms will also be less likely. Will maintain a very small chance along and east of the Buffalo Ridge this afternoon, but with CAPE amounts only about 250-500 J/kg and the freezing level up around 9000 feet, vs 8000 feet yesterday, suspect activity will be isolated and not have any small hail.
High this afternoon will warm into the lower to middle 80s.
354 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Elevated showers were ongoing across northern KS early this morning, associates with a weak mid level warm advection in the base of the upper trough/nose of the westerly jet axis. Models are slightly warmer this morning than MOS, and current trend would seem to support the models low 60s for MinT's a little better. Latest NAM/WRF is a bit warmer in the west for this afternoon's high, indicating low 90s possible for Garden/Liberal/Elkhart areas. Overnight we will see a return of more robust low level moisture, 850 mb dew points and surface values into the low-mid 60s once again all the way west into eastern CO. The higher theta-e airmass should help hold temperatures up a few more degrees as well, supportive of the NAM/WRF's upper 60s low temperatures by early Tuesday morning.
Post cold frontal airmass is notably cooler (70s) and drier (mid 50 dewpoints) than the previous few day, but still enough boundary layer forcing to produce some showers. Cooler air advecting in aloft with 850mb temps falling to around 10C today will produce healthy low level lapse rates in addition to around 500 J/kg of CAPE during peak heating. Lack of shear (sub 20 knots) will prevent storms from organizing but any rapidly developing updrafts could produce some small hail as freezing heights fall to around 700-750mb. Thermal trough slides over on Tuesday with 850mb temps falling further to around 8C. With coldest airmass overhead, expect highs to fall slightly further into the low-mid 70 range Tuesday.
Much of this week, Oklahoma's weather will be dominated by weak upper flow from the northwest inbetween an upper high pressure over AZ/NM and the westerlies belt to the northeast.
High pressure dominates Tuesday and we begin to see a gradient develop in central South Dakota as winds shift to southeast ahead of the next wave.
/issued 356 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017/ Last night's cold frontal passage and today's abundant low clouds was a welcome relief to the recent run of triple digit daytime temperatures. As of mid-afternoon, 24-hour temperature changes per West Texas Mesonet and ASOS/AWOS observations were 20 to 30 degrees cooler areawide than yesterday.
Then guidance indicates a weak lobe of vorticy to pivot southeast along the back side of the 500mb trough axis and help to re-introduce rain around 15z thru Mon aftn/eve. With temps a thermal trough overhead, expect some differential heating within the column to help maringally destabilize and produce some isolated thunderstorms by 18z Mon and persist thru the afternoon. Highs Mon will continue unseasonably cool in the low/mid 60s. Temperatures will start off cooler on Tuesday as we remain north of the jet stream, and then gradually warm to near normal through the end of the week.
Showers/thunderstorms return to the forecast late this week and into the weekend as a cold front eventually drops into the area.
High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s will be a few degrees warmer than today, though.
Upper level ridge continues to build into the region this morning.
Elevated showers were ongoing across northern KS early this morning, associates with a weak mid level warm advection in the base of the upper trough/nose of the westerly jet axis. Models are slightly warmer this morning than MOS, and current trend would seem to support the models low 60s for MinT's a little better. Latest NAM/WRF is a bit warmer in the west for this afternoon's high, indicating low 90s possible for Garden/Liberal/Elkhart areas. Overnight we will see a return of more robust low level moisture, 850 mb dew points and surface values into the low-mid 60s once again all the way west into eastern CO. The higher theta-e airmass should help hold temperatures up a few more degrees as well, supportive of the NAM/WRF's upper 60s low temperatures by early Tuesday morning.
A cold front will cross the area this afternoon with widespread showers and thunderstorms some with damaging winds and heavy rainfall. Weak high pressure will build over the area for the middle of the week. Model guidance show good sfc convergence setting up over the urban corridor, 12-hr height falls in the order of 30 meters, and upper level divergence on right entrance of a 100-kt jet streak on east side of upper level trough over Pennsylvania. Have issued a flash flood watch where models and their respective ensemble means show the highest rainfall totals.
Closed upper low will loiter over the Northland tonight and Monday keeping below normal temperatures and a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the picture. A persistent and slow moving upper low is forecast to gradually slide eastward during the next 36 hours. Monday night we get one last surge out of this upper low we have been under since yesterday. Quieter weather settles in for Tuesday with a ridge axis shifting to just west of the forecast area at the surface, with northwest flow continuing to keep temperatures near to slightly below normal.
Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper ridge parked over southern Nevada and an upper low circulating over Ontario. This low cape/high shear environment may possibly favor isolated low-topped but highly tilted thunderstorms.
02z/9pm temperatures have dropped into the lower 70s. the region is under increasingly northwesterly flow at 500mb as the trough amplifies over the Midwest aloft. highs will set up from the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Dry Monday night with lows a couple degrees warmer than tonight. Tuesday, another quick impulse dives into the northwesterly flow aloft, but the axis of the trough has shifted east slightly.
SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): A strong upper ridge centered over the southwest U.
On Monday, the northwest flow weakens a bit as the ridge nudges eastward across the Rockies. Monday night-Tuesday: Strong upper level ridging helps to keep the area dry Monday night.
416 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected through the morning as a cold front moves through. Less humid and cooler weather is forecast for much of the week. The NAM wants to develop a surface reflection and cold front beneath this wave, while the GFS is showing the wave spinning northward, with little to no activity across the area.
Cooler and drier airmass today following last night's front will lead to a very pleasant evening through Monday morning with continued light winds.
This activity was tied to a subtle trough in NW flow shown best in the 00z RAOB plots from 700-500 mb. We suspect this elevated convection may expand in coverage as the trough impinges on an elevated Fn layer across the southern half of the forecast area. as the trough departs to our SE, followed by a slow erosion of stratus. Stratus is likely to return overnight as even richer dewpoints advect westward, but this improved moisture is a moot point for precip chances as NW flow weakens considerably within a burgeoning upper ridge.
301 AM PDT Mon Jun 19 2017 High pressure aloft over the southwest states will bring well above average high temperatures through mid week.
Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough over northeast ALTA with a jet on the south side. Upper trough/jet streak will move over the Red River Valley Mon evening. Water vapor loop indicated upper level ridge over the Pacific Northwest. Upper level ridge forecast to move east over the area and flatten by Wed morning. Upper level trough off the BC coast will move into the Northern plains/southern Canada Wed night. Cold front moves through Wed. We cannot seem to break away from NW flow aloft as next upper low carves out a trough across the region which continues through the end of the work week into the upcoming weekend.
It will be slightly cooler behind the front, and much drier with dewpoints in the 50s/60s.
Models show weak cyclogenesis occurring over northeast WI as this wave interacts with a weak cold front today. The cooler air mass and associated low wet-bulb zero heights will be favorable for hail development, but weak deep layer shear (20 kts or less) should minimize any severe weather threat.
For Tuesday and beyond remains highly questionable and totally dependent on the possible development of the broad area of low pressure over the NE Yucatan/NW Caribbean sea this morning.
/issued 848 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017/ A southwest flow continues aloft over the region this evening with low pressure to our west and a high to the east. At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis remains across the peninsula, with the pressure gradient tightening as an area of low pressure in the Caribbean Sea moves toward the southern Gulf of Mexico. An area of low pressure in the Caribbean Sea is forecast to move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday, with increasing winds and seas along with numerous showers and thunderstorms.
402 AM MDT Mon Jun 19 2017 An upper level ridge will be centered over the desert southwest today and tonight, with northwest flow aloft over CO. Temps today should be a little warmer than yesterday across the southeast plains, with highs being similar to yesterday across the high valley locations.
With weak subsidence from the strong ridge to our southwest, skies today will be mostly sunny.
Ratzer 228 PM CDT Stratocumulus clouds in the cold advection regime have filled in behind upper level low pressure to our northeast. We remain in northwest flow behind upper level low pressure, a pattern that favors diurnally driven showers, but better shower coverage potential is expected Monday as several models depict a modest wave in the flow. Temperatures look to fall slightly cooler than today's, with readings generally topping out in the mid 70s. KMD 232 PM CDT Northwest flow still expected to be in place at the start of the period, with broad upper level trough across the eastern half of the CONUS. Upper level trough begins to shift to the east by mid week with more zonal flow returning to the region.
High pressure will be east of the region this period with ample moisture and instability to produce convection beginning late this morning. The GFS is still the farthest northeast, stalling 93L south of Louisiana on Tuesday as the disturbance reaches the COL area and begins interacting with the upper low in the western Gulf. The ECMWF is the farthest southwest, interacting with the upper low quicker, and then trapping 93L under the massive heat ridge that extends eastward from the desert southwest. A frontal boundary is forecast to stall across central Georgia on Tuesday, and then push back northward as a warm front Tuesday night.
Surface cold front currently is bisecting the area. For today, surface cold front will continue to move on off to the east. Highs today will range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s in most locations. After morning patchy fog mixes out, sunny skies are expected with highs warming into the lower 80s.
531 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Temperatures will rebound a few degrees today as the upper level jet shifts east and takes some of the cooler air with it. With the loss of this cooler air aloft the hit and miss instability showers and thunderstorms will also be less likely. Will maintain a very small chance along and east of the Buffalo Ridge this afternoon, but with CAPE amounts only about 250-500 J/kg and the freezing level up around 9000 feet, vs 8000 feet yesterday, suspect activity will be isolated and not have any small hail.
347 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 A strong low pressure system over southeast Ontario will move slowly northeast early this week resulting in cooler and less humid air over our area. A couple of troughs rotating around the Ontario low are expected to cause scattered showers and a few thunderstorms in our area today and Tuesday.
An upper trough will pass today and help cool 500 mb temps to -18C.
Temperatures will again rise to the lower 90s. Upper troughiness will generally extend from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast. Locally heavy rain will be a threat given the high PW with any persistent slow moving or training cells.
410 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 A cold front will cross the region today and tonight. After the front passes the region, cooler and unsettled weather will dominate the region through mid-week. Upper trough will still be around with some moisture Tuesday morning, then it will flatten later Tuesday as dry slot also edges north into the area.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper ridge extending from the Great Basin north-northwest across WA/OR. Meanwhile, a large upper low was positioned well offshore from SRN CA. Between the ridge and the low.
220 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 A strong low pressure system over southeast Ontario will move slowly northeast early this week resulting in cooler and less humid air over our area. A couple of troughs rotating around the Ontario low are expected to cause scattered showers and a few thunderstorms in our area today and Tuesday.
110 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected through the morning as a cold front moves through. Less humid and cooler weather is forecast for much of the week. Showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight as a slow moving cold front approaches from the west. The NAM wants to develop a surface reflection and cold front beneath this wave, while the GFS is showing the wave spinning northward, with little to no activity across the area.
1142 PM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017 High pressure with west northwest flow aloft will remain over the area building north from the Great Basin. As this warmer air moves north, temperatures will warm over the area with decreasing wind.