Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ON MONDAY. A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A MODEST WARM UP BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GRADS FLIP ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE EXITS AND A TROF APPROACHES. AS A TROF AND A WEAK FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE OJAI VLY IS IN JEOPARDY OF SEEING FREEZING TEMPS AGAIN AND A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA FOR THIS POTENTIAL. THE TROF AND THE RAPIDLY DISINTEGRATING FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL COAST. THE TROF WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR AND MAX TEMPS WILL FALL. YET ANOTHER NORTH WIND EVENT WILL FOLLOW THE ON THE HEALS OF THE TROF.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FROM THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUING THE DOMINATE THE WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE PATTERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CRP CWFA RIGHT NOW. INDICATING A POSSIBLE WARMTH SPIKE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MILD H5 RIDGING.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR SUN NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WEST TX TO MOVE INTO THE IA/IL/WI AREA BY 06Z TUE AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z WED. A WEAKER UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN BEHIND AND MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR TUE AND WED AND PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SNOW FOR THE AREA. 5 INCHES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEVELOPING A STRONG WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION.
THE NAM IS ALSO STRONGER WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. ENOUGH COLD AIR IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER THAT REFREEZING WOULD OCCUR. WITH MODELS FAVORING NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST. TONIGHT AND MON MORNING AS DRIER/COLDER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
BEFORE FINALLY BECOMING OCCLUDED BY A NEW COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE CWA.
409 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015 STRONG UPPER LOW NOW OVER WRN TX WHILE A CDFNT EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES THRU SE MO AND INTO CENTRAL TX. TONIGHT WILL BE WHERE BIG CHANGES IN THE WX WILL BEGIN AS THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY STARTS TO MOVE NE. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NE IT WILL DRAG A QUICK MOVING CDFNT ACROSS THE CWA.
722 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015 EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE AREA AND EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ADDED TO THE MIX WAS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WEST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO WHICH WAS PROVIDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FLOW HELPING WITH LIFT AND INSTABILITY. THIS WILL KEEP THE FRONT FROM MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS THE WARMER AIR SPREADING INTO THE GULF WRAPS NORTH.
/ISSUED 433 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015/ EARLY THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF EL PASO DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. DEEP MOISTENING ON THE NORTHWEST/WEST SIDE OF THE CLOSED LOW (WESTERN EXTENT OF TROWAL) LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT SHOULD PERSIST AND GIVE MUCH OF THE AREA ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS EARLY MONDAY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST.
645 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015 CIRCULATION AROUND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL HOLD A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL THROUGH MID-WEEK. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WHICH INDICATED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT OR DEVELOPING WARM FRONT SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE DEEPENING MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.
THE UPPER LOW. DRY SLOTTING WAS PACKING A PUNCH WELL INTO THE PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. MOISTURE WILL FILL BACK OVERHEAD LATER THIS MORNING RESUMING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO EJECT OUT TO THE EAST.
534 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015 A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
550 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE PATTERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /ISSUED 316 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. ANOMALOUS DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO DOMINATE SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER. THE COLD FRONT/STORM SYSTEM THAT IS BRING SEVERE WEATHER AND SNOW TO TEXAS WILL REACH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT. ITS QUITE POSSIBLE THIS HIGH RISK MAY EXTEND INTO MONDAY.
Mid/upper level low is nearly stationary in the vicinity of El Paso. freezing rain. The western portions of the CWA (Southeast New Mexico and west of a Wink to Alpine line) is close enough to the upper low to not be affected by the dry slot. The mid/upper level low will finally begin to move east today. The low is forecast to be near Ozona by 00Z and near Comanche TX by 06Z. As the low moves east snow will spread east over central/eastern portions of the CWA by mid morning. Another trof. An example of the vagarities of weather in the High Plains.
638 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015 A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EAST TOWARD THE PAC COAST THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND OVER OUR AREA TOMORROW. WITH LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY ALONG THE SNAKE RIVER ALL THE WAY INTO THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY. WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
WILL SEE SOME CEILING IMPROVEMENTS BY TONIGHT AT DRT WITH DRY AIR WORKING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. WITH THE UPPER LOW SLOWING MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDINESS BUT AM OPTIMISTIC THAT WILL SEE SOME VFR CEILINGS AT SAT/SSF/AUS BY LATER TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF EL PASO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BIG BEND TODAY TO NEAR DEL RIO EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRODUCES STRONG UPWARD FORCING ON RESIDUAL MOISTURE. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. FAIR WEATHER RETURNS ON MONDAY AS THE LOW SPEEDS AWAY FROM OUR AREA. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT.
AN INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY MORNING. VERY COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH A HARD FREEZE IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. IT IS UP TO 15 DEGREES COOLER IN THE KERN COUNTY DESERT WHERE THE WINDS ARE MUCH LIGHTER TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA ARE UP 20-30 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS MOVED OVERHEAD FOR WARMING ALOFT. IN ADDITION TO THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE WILL NOT BE AROUND LONG AS IT SHIFTS EAST TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/WV TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA.
The clouds will be steadily increasing as a trough of low pressure digs along the western coast. This trough appears to dig farther to the south than previously forecast so the progression of precipitation into the Northern Rockies will be slower.
THINK THE HIGHER POPS TONIGHT WILL BE OVER WESTERN AREAS AND UP ALONG KENTUCKY BORDER. THIS PLACES MID STATE WELL WITHIN WARM SECTOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH COLD FRONT SWEEPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE DAY. BASICALLY AM EXPECTING A LINE OF CONVECTION NORTH TO SOUTH BACK IN ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL WORK EASTWARD INTO FAR WESTERN AREAS OF THE MID STATE AROUND 15Z MONDAY MORNING AND ALONG INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR BY 18Z AND WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES UP ALONG THE PLATEAU AROUND 21Z. UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH A GOOD SHOT OF VORTICITY SWINGING THROUGH. VERY ACTIVE AND FAST PATTERN WITH UPPER RIDGE IN THE EAST AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN U.
AS FOR THE REST OF TODAY ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED AS DRY SUBSIDENT MID LEVEL AIR (VIA 12Z RAOB DATA) ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A TIGHT ENOUGH GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STORM SYSTEM OVER TEXAS AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST SHOULD MAINTAIN ONGOING WIND AND SEAS CONDITIONS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT IS ALONG A HBV TO APY LINE WITHIN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CRP CWFA RIGHT NOW. INDICATING A POSSIBLE WARMTH SPIKE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MILD H5 RIDGING.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF EL PASO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BIG BEND TODAY TO NEAR DEL RIO EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRODUCES STRONG UPWARD FORCING ON RESIDUAL MOISTURE. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. FAIR WEATHER RETURNS ON MONDAY AS THE LOW SPEEDS AWAY FROM OUR AREA. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT.
426 AM MST SUN DEC 27 2015 THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TAKE ITS NORTHEAST TRACK INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA/SOUTHWEST MISSOURI MONDAY. BY MONDAY EVENING THE LOW SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHCENTRAL IOWA.
351 AM PST SUN DEC 27 2015 SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY WITH WEAKER WINDS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. ANOTHER COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BRINGING COOLING.
COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING NORTHWEST PA AND INTO EASTERN OHIO WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND FRONT AND MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT IN THE WARM SECTOR. RAIN WILL END NORTH TO SOUTH LATE DAY WITH RAIN CONTINUING TO LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES AND SOUTH OF I-70 INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVERNIGHT. THIS MEANS BASICALLY EVERYWHERE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WELL-ABOVE FREEZING.
Northwest Montana will continue to see snow showers as well, especially closer to the ID border and along the higher terrain north of Seeley Lake including Marias Pass.
1032 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015 LATEST SURFACE AND LOW TO MID LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE WELL IN PLACE AND IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. PLENTY OF SUN TODAY ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPELL A DRY AND WARM DAY IN STORE FOR US TODAY OUTSIDE VERY BRIEF SPOTTY SHOWERS IF ANY. /ISSUED 636 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. BASICALLY NO CHANGE IN THE CURRENT PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA AND EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS. IN ADDITION A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA THIS PERIOD.
THIS IS LIKELY TO BE THE MAJOR SNOW PRODUCER FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, WHILE THE WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST SIDE WAS THE PRIMARY PRODUCER FOR THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD TODAY, RESULTING INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. THE COOLER AIR MASS WILL KEEP SNOW LEVEL RIGHT AROUND THE 1000 FEET MARK, SO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW TODAY, ALTHOUGH DAYTIME WARMING COULD PUSH THE SNOW LEVELS ABOVE THE VALLEYS A BIT HIGHER, AND PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS A MIX, OR BRIEFLY EVEN AS ALL RAIN.
This would result in very light freezing drizzle or rain across north central areas through mid morning. After sunrise, with the approach of the trough axis, moisture fills in aloft transitioning precip to light snow.
Temperatures will bottom out near or slightly below freezing freezing along the northern extent of the fog, thus a brief period of freezing fog and light frost accum is possible across northern and western portions of the KC metro.
636 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. BASICALLY NO CHANGE IN THE CURRENT PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA AND EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS. IN ADDITION A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA THIS PERIOD.
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE INLAND THIS MORNING.
DEEP LAYER RIDGING EAST OF THE AREA WILL DOMINATE TODAY WITH A STABLE WARM AND GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS WITH PREVAILING SOUTH- EASTERLY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN SE TO SOUTH WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY.
As of 3 AM, a weak upper level short wave trough was quickly moving east across the central Plains. We should see a pretty mild day with highs ranging from the middle 50s around Rolla to the lower 60s across far southwestern Missouri. As this event gets going, it is quite possible that we see a fairly narrow focus for the heavy rainfall as deep tropospheric ascent will be absent outside of the low level frontal zone.
AS THIS DEEPER MOISTURE SATURATES THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WINDS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST DURING THE PERIOD DO NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF SEA FOG.
CHANGES TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES WERE BASED OFF A BLEND OF THE HIGHEST PERFORMING BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE DURING THIS PAST PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY. A COLD UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED OFF THE CENTRAL OR COAST NEAR 45N/127W WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING. 06Z WRF INDICATING THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH INTO THE YOSEMITE PARK AREA AND MERCED COUNTY BY 700 AM PST AND PUSH SOUTH OF FRESNO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND.
Thereafter, should see forcing weaken and the best lift shift westward as the upper ridge over the western Atlantic begins to build to the west.
Westerly flow will back to the south, except KMAF/KHOB, where a weak cold front will backdoor today. A large upper trough will take shape across the western U.
ANY STRATUS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE TEMPO IFR CONDS THROUGH AT LEAST 13Z WITH GRADUALLY LIFTING AND BREAKING UP OF THIS LOWER CLOUD DECK INTO LATE MORNING.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR HUDSON BAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER OR HOW FAR THIS SCOURS OUT THE LOWER STRATUS WITH ITS PROGRESSION NORTHEASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND JAMES VALLEY TO THE LOWER 20S IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY. HOWEVER IN THE SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 30S. LATE TONIGHT A COLD FRONT ENTERS NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH MORE STRATUS CLOUDS BEHIND IT AND MUCH COLDER AIR.
A large upper trough will take shape across the western U.
NEAR A WARM FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO MIX BACK N INTO E TX/N LA. VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME THIN CIRRUS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MVFR CIGS BEGINS TO SPREAD N ACROSS E TX/NW LA AND INTO SW AR THIS EVENING WITH THE NWD ADVANCING WARM FRONT. BUT AT BEST IFR CIGS WITH REDUCED VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE REGION.
POPS REMOVED EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.
THE LOWS SO FAR HAVE REMAINED IN THE HIGH 70S. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND MODELS KEEP SHOWING IT LINGERING IN PLACE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTENSIFIES AND LIFTS NORTH TODAY AND TOMORROW.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COVER MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH CHRISTMAS. THE WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO BRING A WET SPELL TO INDIANA WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL SYSTEMS DOMINATING THE WEATHER. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE REGION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES. LOW PRESSURE IS APT TO RETURN TO OUR STATE TOWARD MIDWEEK.
456 AM CST THU DEC 24 2015 (Today and Tonight) Temperatures will be slightly cooler during the next 24 hours, as a weak cold front moves south across West Central Texas. Thus, highs along our Interstate 10 corridor will be close to persistence, mainly in the lower to mid 70s.
Meanwhile, a stronger upper level trough is digging southeast across the Pacific Northwest. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure is centered across the Colorado Rockies. With a cooler airmass in place, highs are only expected to reach into the mid to upper 40s.
FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT AND THIS WILL INCREASE POPS FOR MID STATE AND HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER. ON FRIDAY MODELS HAVE INVERTED TROUGH ON FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
TROUGH ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH RIDGE BUILDING AHEAD THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS. AT THE SURFACE STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO LOUISIANA. HIGHS OVER THE SNOW FIELD IN THE LOW 30S AND UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 FROM SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL. MODELS ARE SHOWING A TROUGH DIG INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY FRIDAY.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT. STEMMING FROM DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ONTARIO. DEEP TROUGHING RULES ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT GETS SHEARED OUT. PASSING HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. PWATS ARE EXTREMELY HIGH AND ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD CERTAINLY BRING TOTALS MORE TOWARDS THE HIGHER END. WITH READINGS MORE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE HOLIDAY.
516 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015 A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO FRIDAY. DIMINISHING WINDS AND MAINLY DRY THIS PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION UNDER PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY GIVEN SHALLOW INFILTRATION OF MODIFIED POLAR AIR. RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE GRTLKS FRI IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SHRTWV MOVG INTO THE PAC NW THIS MORNING DIGGING FURTHER INTO THE SWRN CONUS.
CHRISTMAS DAY STILL LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.
09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE BACK THROUGH NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING AND SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH LATE TONIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND MAY BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO THE OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL AND SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO THE EVENING AS A SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS IS A PRECURSOR TO THE MAIN EVENT TODAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE NW.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
TREND SHOULD BE FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND DECREASING WINDS/BLOWING SNOW OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS AS WELL THROUGH THE MORNING. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN U. AND FAVORABLE LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH COUNTRY DESPITE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN ADVISORY WOULD BE WARRANTED FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 73 60 73 62 / 50 80 70 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 70 57 70 60 / 70 80 70 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 69 61 69 60 / 50 60 70 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 69 56 68 56 / 80 80 70 40.
BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC SHIFTS OVER THE ALEUTIANS WITH A SHORTER WAVELENGTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM LONG WAVE RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER WESTERN CANADA BY DAY 8.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S. IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY OVER ANDROS ISLAND TODAY.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE DOWN TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH BY THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO WESTERN MISSOURI.
456 AM CST THU DEC 24 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING OUT OF THE DISTURBANCE IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA. SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THE FRONT TODAY AND SOME THICKENING OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER TONIGHT AS WELL YET ALSO STILL ABOVE NORMAL. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGING THIS WARMUP WILL BE STERNLY UNDERCUT BY A STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTING SOUTH ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND GREAT PLAINS.
COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
537 AM CST THU DEC 24 2015 12Z TAF CYCLE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE THREE TAF SITES BY 12Z TODAY ALLOWING FOR NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHEAST BY 18Z TODAY. /ISSUED 330 AM CST THU DEC 24 2015/ A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. SO WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINNING TO DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THIS MORNING.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND MOST LIKELY NEAR NIL WITH SUMMER-LIKE BERUMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE E/SE WITH MAIN PRECIPITATION AREA REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING MAX TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WRN MT INTO THE DAKOTAS WITH SWRLY WINDS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NE WY INTO THE BLKHLS. UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN CHRISTMAS MORNING WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY SWRLY ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. MODELS THEN SHOW THIS LOW SWINGING INTO CNTRL NEB FRI NIGHT AS STRONG WAA SURGES INTO THE MIDWEST. STRONG OVERRUNNING AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS SD LATE FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH IS JUST BEGINNING TO MAKE IT ONSHORE THE WRN COAST WHERE BETTER UPPER AIR SAMPLING CAN BE TAKEN.
317 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015 THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB AT DEPICTING THE CONVECTIVE LINE COMING OUT OF MISSISSIPPI AND ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA. ON SUNDAY THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AND PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
551 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIDWEEK. 545 PM UPDATE: QUICK UPDATE TO TAKE OUT ANY MENTION OF THE LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING AS THEY HAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST. THE SECOND UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SWING JUST N OF THE CWA TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSES N OF THE CWA AROUND MIDDAY. TO THE LOW 80S IN SRN NH AND INTERIOR SW ME.