Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1132 PM MDT Sun May 24 2020 A well defined upper-level trough continues to move slowly to the east-southeast over the Northern Rockies this morning. 5 sigma with this system, indicating intensification as cooler air moves in aloft. Low level moisture will continue to impact the northern and central mountains as a cold front exits to the east. Showers wind down this evening as moisture erodes with clearing and cooler conditions settling in for the overnight hours, making a beautiful night sky for stargazing. Mid-level winds will transition from the southwest to the northwest tonight as a strengthening ridge over the West Coast continues to drive the trough away. As a result, drier air and warmer temperatures will move in from the west-northwest as we kick off the new work week.
Meanwhile an upper low was noted over northern WY with a trough axis extending south to NM. Redevelopment should take place along a cold front that was located from south central NEB to southwest KS as the low level jet increases overnight. Highs should be cooler with clouds and precip keeping readings in the 70s for the most part. A northwest wind bringing in some cooler air should lower temps into the mid 50s and lower 60s by Tuesday morning.
Showers will linger over the mountains into early Tuesday before an upper level ridge rebuilds across the Pacific Northwest near midweek. Drier and warmer weather is expected for the second half of the week.
For Memorial Day, a deep upper level trough will slowly migrate east across the Plains, with the 500 mb axis stretching from central North Dakota to west Texas by 00Z Tuesday. That aforementioned short wave trough to our southwest will track up into eastern Kansas by Monday morning. Memorial Day highs should be a bit cooler than what we have seen the past few days with more in the way of cloud cover expected. That main upper level trough axis will move very little through midweek with energy closing off over Texas and the main westerlies retreating to the U.
Temperatures will fall into the 50s to lower 60s overnight as slightly cooler air moves in aloft.
expect ridging to develop across the intermountain west and nudge into the local area through the remainder of the period.
Breezy conditions are expected again this afternoon and again tomorrow afternoon over the ocean, along the coast, and over the higher terrain.
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to spread back into Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas overnight tonight as a low pressure system lifts into the region. The extensive convective complex that did spread into SE OK has also overturned a large portion the low level airmass and an aggressive outflow boundary has further advected notably drier low level air NNW.
A relatively diffuse pressure pattern with weak flow accompanied the low down to the surface. Temperatures today will again be relatively cooler with the low spinning overhead and persistent cloud cover. Height rises develop in the wake of the closed low exiting to the east tonight.
An arm of convection has stretched east into our far western counties though thanks to a warm front lifting north and the LLJ strengthening and nosing into our area. Scattered storms are expected for the afternoon and evening along and ahead of the cold front. The pattern will stay active through the work week as the upper level trough over the plains breaks off from the main flow tomorrow, becomes closed and slowly moves east through the southern plains. This will stall today's cold front in our region as well.
Models were in good agreement today with clouds and cooler air returning to southwest Kansas behind a cold front that will move into Oklahoma and central Kansas early today.
358 AM EDT Mon May 25 2020 High pressure will maintain generally dry and warm weather through midweek, with the exception being a very low chance for afternoon or evening storms. Strengthening eastern CONUS ridge will keep the area warm and dry today. A slow-moving trough in the Srn Plains will enable an ern-CONUS ridge to amplify, with the ridge axis building into the OH Valley. Despite increasing moisture and instability, lack of low-level convergence and broad subsidence, amid the upper-level ridge axis, will suppress a widespread threat of convection. A prominent trough will set up in the upper Great Lakes region late in the week, which will supply a cold front's attendant focus for convective development in an unstable and modestly sheared airmass. Drier and seasonably cool weather are expected in the post-frontal airmass with a persistent ern CONUS trough.
May see a lull in the precip tonight as initial upper wave will continue to lift north of the area and southern part of larger trough will dig south through west Texas.
219 AM EDT Mon May 25 2020 High pressure will cover the region early this week with a continued daily chance of thunderstorms, especially in the mountains.
153 AM EDT Mon May 25 2020 High pressure will maintain generally dry and warm weather through midweek, with the exception being a very low chance for afternoon or evening storms. Strengthening eastern CONUS ridge will keep the area warm and dry today. A slow-moving trough in the Srn Plains will enable an ern-CONUS ridge to amplify, with the ridge axis building into the OH Valley. Despite increasing moisture and instability, lack of low-level convergence and broad subsidence, amid the upper-level ridge axis, will suppress a widespread threat of convection. A prominent trough will set up in the upper Great Lakes region late in the week, which will supply a cold front's attendant focus for convective development in an unstable and modestly sheared airmass. Drier and seasonably cool weather are expected in the post-frontal airmass with a persistent ern CONUS trough.
Coverage may gradually diminish as the wave weakens ever further as it approaches the Hwy 14 corridor this afternoon, but even only a few hundredths of rain, along with more extensive cloud cover and cooler temperatures mainly in the 60s may put a damper on outdoor Memorial Day activities. As mentioned above, instability is rather meager, but with proximity of weak low-level inverted trough in our far eastern CWA, could see slightly better surface warming, and enough elevated instability to support a few storms this afternoon/evening. This along with slight eastward push of the upper trough axis should shift focus for at least scattered showers into the eastern CWA tonight into Tuesday.
Pattern at 500 mb features a trough axis extending from eastern MT down into NM. There was a weak closed low just west of the MT/ND border and possibly two others - one in CO and another in TX. Vort maxes lifting northward ahead of the main trough to our west have been one of the forcing mechanisms over the past 24 hours or so. Models suggest that the closed low to the north will track into southern Manitoba by 12Z Tuesday, with the main trough axis extending down into TX. The more pronounced south to north mid level flow decreases on Tuesday, as the low over TX closes off and starts to become detached. Temperatures are expected to top out in the lower or mid 70s on Tuesday.
324 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020 An upper level low pressure trough stretched through the Rockies will split, with a portion re-centering across the Texas South Plains region later today and tonight. A cold front moving southward out of the Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico will cross most of the area before daybreak. The axis of the upper low will be just to our east by tomorrow morning, but the low will be slow to push eastward.
334 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020 Complex large scale upper trof continues to envelop much of the Central US this morning, extending from the prairies of Montana southward into the Texas coast. The passing of these features, and by the larger upper trof as a whole into Tuesday, will bring continued chances for rain through the short term.
The trough combined with ample low to mid level moisture across the east will be enough to generate showers today, mainly east of the Missouri River. Fewer clouds will mean warmer temperatures for Tuesday, as well, with highs pushing into the 70s.
Extensive cloud cover should hold temps from falling much further with lows remaining in the low 50s within the Devils Lake basin to low 60s in west-central Minnesota. Closer to our area, the trough axis does slowly progress eastward today into tomorrow on the nose of this jet, with perhaps some resurgence to life as it does so. That is until this evening when vort adv moves over the area associated with the trough perhaps phasing with remnant energy from a mesoscale complex moving out of the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest. The rest of Tuesday will be dry with clearing skies as the trough pushes east of the area.
Southerly winds around 10kts may keep temps in the lower 70s.
Interestingly though, diagnosis of mid level RAP fields does show proper placement of the closed low, and positive vorticity advection in the RAP matches well with observed reflectivity. Think clouds will be more prevalent through at least tomorrow morning given the proximity of the closed upper low. The main upper low moves into North Dakota on Monday, leading to some lingering wrap around showers mainly over the central and east. The upper level trough propagates up into Ontario leading to a zonal flow regime aloft, warmer temperatures with highs Tuesday in the mid to upper 70s, and dry weather.
However, tonight through Tuesday, the approach and passage of a cold front will generate scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.
A rainy and muggy start to our Memorial Day, as an upper level low pressure system and warm front continue to bring very moist tropical air into west central and southwest Florida.
215 AM MDT Mon May 25 2020 Upper trough will slowly cross the forecast area today. There is a better chance of showers over parts of south central South Dakota, through this morning and into early afternoon, as a weak disturbance moves up from the southwest, out ahead of the upper trough. High temperatures today will be slightly cooler than average, mainly in the 60s.
315 AM EDT Mon May 25 2020 The next 24 hours is largely a persistence forecast as the Ohio Valley continues to be under the influence of upper level ridging nosing in from the East Coast while mid-CONUS troughing creates a meridional pattern across the lower 48. Our position between the eastern ridge and troughing to our west will result in continued warm, moist southerly flow.
520 AM MDT Mon May 25 2020 Updated Aviation Discussion Dry and seasonably mild conditions are expected today under a ridge of high pressure before breezy to windy conditions a times develop tonight through Tuesday with a chance for mainly mountain showers, though a few lighter showers cannot be ruled out at times elsewhere. Much warmer conditions are expected late this week with summer-like temperatures likely by the weekend. Upper level ridge shifts east across the Northern Rockies and MT today before flattening tonight as a broadening large scale trough moves into western Canada. Breezy to windy conditions continue on Tuesday under under a moderate westerly flow aloft with low pressure continuing east across the Canadian prairies at the surface.
The next 24 hours is largely a persistence forecast as the Ohio Valley continues to be under the influence of upper level ridging nosing in from the East Coast while mid-CONUS troughing creates a meridional pattern across the lower 48. Our position between the eastern ridge and troughing to our west will result in continued warm, moist southerly flow.
For today and tonight, most of the lift associated with the trough will remain just west of the forecast area, and deep layer moisture (precipitable water ~1. Storms will diminish in coverage and intensity during the evening with loss of heating with influence from the trough likely helping to maintain at least lingering shower activity through the night.
524 AM MDT Mon May 25 2020 Overnight GOES-R WV/IR loop showed the upper trough axis along the Front Range, with a short wave over the Central Plains. A Southern Plains cut-off low drifts east toward the Lower MS Valley through late week before weakening. Meanwhile, the CWA will be dominated by an amplifying ridge aloft during the latter part of the week and weekend.
501 AM MDT Mon May 25 2020 Upper trough will slowly cross the forecast area today. There is a better chance of showers over parts of south central South Dakota, through this morning and into early afternoon, as a weak disturbance moves up from the southwest, out ahead of the upper trough. High temperatures today will be slightly cooler than average, mainly in the 60s.
/issued 443 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020/ GOES water imagery showed an upper level trof taking shape over the plains, as depicted by model guidance over the past several days. This feature will evolve into a closed low over TX on Tuesday. This morning's medium range models continued the trend of edging the upper low center to the Arklatex during the midweek. The upper low will gradually wobble over east TX, gradually weakening over the latter half of the week. During this period, the northern branch will amplify, with Great Lakes trof taking shape downstream of a stout upper ridge building through the Rockies.
precipitation chances wind down from west to east today as drier air aloft moves in along an upper level trough axis. Breezy north winds are expected for much of the day with high temperatures in the low to mid 60s. Low temperatures tonight are expected to range from the upper 30s to around 40 in far eastern Colorado to the low to mid 40s east of the Colorado Kansas border.
overcast skies, breezy northerly winds, and below normal highs in the lower 60s. Things begin to turn around on Tuesday as temperatures start to rebound back towards normal with highs in the low to mid 70s, and a few more glimpses of sunshine, though plenty of clouds still linger. With a cutoff low also off the Pacific coast, a blocking pattern emerges as a strong ridge builds over the southwest CONUS. Once the Pacific low begins to move up the coast, the SW ridge will begin to nudge its way eastward which will help to keep us dry for the remainder of the period.
TFJ Low pressure over the northern plains will slowly move off to the east today. As the wet airmass warms, there could be a redevelopment of showers on the edge of the low pressure in the far southeast this afternoon. The remainder of the week will see a ridge building over the Great Basin and into the northern Rockies. Ridge will shift east over the weekend with the Pacific trof moving toward the coast.
Persistent northerly breezes will continue on today, primarily in the lower Colorado River Valley.
301 AM MDT Mon May 25 2020 Low pressure over the northern plains will slowly move off to the east today. As the wet airmass warms, there could be a redevelopment of showers on the edge of the low pressure in the far southeast this afternoon. The remainder of the week will see a ridge building over the Great Basin and into the northern Rockies. Ridge will shift east over the weekend with the Pacific trof moving toward the coast. As the low pressure over the northern plains moves to the east today, skies will be clearing from the west.
500 AM MDT Mon May 25 2020 The mid level trough axis pushing east of the Divide leaves the CWA under strong north-northwest flow aloft. Cooler air tied with this system will be pushed eastward, as a warmer air mass works its way in from the west and a ridge of high pressure builds over the western CONUS. A passing Canadian low, will deamplify ridging over the western CONUS, keeping zonal flow aloft through Tuesday. Mid to high level moisture spilling over the deamplified ridge will result in an increase in afternoon cloud cover.
/issued 412 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020/ A very active weather pattern is set up for this whole week, as an upper level low pressure area slowly moves across the state of Texas.
1020 AM EDT Mon May 25 2020 Complex system impacting the forecast area today as an U/L trough over the eastern Gulf/Florida peninsula and associated weak area of low pressure taking shape near/off the southeast coast of Florida will create numerous showers and a few thunderstorms across west central and southwest Florida. Due to extensive cloud cover, very limited insolation expected today with high temperatures generally in the lower 80s. Large scale ascent ahead of the U/L trough with moist east/southeast boundary layer of the Atlantic is enhancing shower activity this morning mainly over the interior and eastern Florida peninsula.
325 AM MDT Mon May 25 2020 A significant warming trend is expected through the week as high pressure aloft strengthens across the Great Basin.
As the upper level flow flattens in response to this weather system, some breezy westerly winds are anticipated, especially in the higher terrain.
A weak upper level high pressure ridge over our area this morning will be replaced by westerly flow aloft by this evening as a Pacific weather system crosses Washington and northern Idaho. For Tuesday, the current forecast includes a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms in southern Harney and Malheur Counties Oregon and the higher terrain south of the Snake River Valley in Idaho.
412 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020 A very active weather pattern is set up for this whole week, as an upper level low pressure area slowly moves across the state of Texas.
1004 AM EDT Mon May 25 2020 A frontal boundary weakens over the area today as high pressure remains off to the northeast. High pressure remains offshore mid to late week with weak waves of low pressure over the Southeast states leading to summer-like weather with more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Latest sfc analysis shows a weak frontal boundary directly over the area with high pressure off to the NE. Cooler temps today with ENE flow. Typical drop off in convection for tonight with low temps in the low/mid 60s. Very unsettled through the period as low pressure of tropical origin moves up the coast.
NVA/flat ridging aloft today will inhibit convective development, but sufficient low level moisture will be in place for a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. The environment is progged to be very unstable by tonight ahead of a weak cold front. Tuesday will be cooler with clouds eroding and rain ending mainly across the western areas through Tuesday night.
625 AM EDT Mon May 25 2020 A frontal boundary weakens over the area today as high pressure remains off to the northeast. High pressure remains offshore mid to late week with weak waves of low pressure over the Southeast states leading to summer-like weather with more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Latest sfc analysis shows a weak frontal boundary directly over the area with high pressure off to the NE. Cooler temps today with ENE flow. Typical drop off in convection for tonight with low temps in the low/mid 60s. Very unsettled through the period as low pressure of tropical origin moves up the coast.
An upper level ridge over the area will flatten as a front moves inland well to the north today.
The final system from the southern Plains trough will lift north across the region Tuesday. After this time, the trough will cut off over Texas and end the train MCVs. Zonal flow north of the cutoff system midweek will give way to troughing across the north central and northeastern U.
443 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020 GOES water imagery showed an upper level trof taking shape over the plains, as depicted by model guidance over the past several days. This feature will evolve into a closed low over TX on Tuesday. This morning's medium range models continued the trend of edging the upper low center to the Arklatex during the midweek. The upper low will gradually wobble over east TX, gradually weakening over the latter half of the week. During this period, the northern branch will amplify, with Great Lakes trof taking shape downstream of a stout upper ridge building through the Rockies.
A strong area of high pressure will move into the area from the west, leading to a warming trend this holiday weekend. A large scale trough over the northern high plains will continue to push eastward. This will allow for a rather quick transition to being under the influence of a building ridge of high pressure that has already begun expanding into southwestern Arizona.
Complex large scale upper trof continues to envelop much of the Central US this morning, extending from the prairies of Montana southward into the Texas coast. The passing of these features, and by the larger upper trof as a whole into Tuesday, will bring continued chances for rain through the short term.
300 AM PDT Mon May 25 2020 High pressure will continue to build over the region with dangerous heat this week.
320 AM MDT Mon May 25 2020 Overnight GOES-R WV/IR loop showed the upper trough axis along the Front Range, with a short wave over the Central Plains. A Southern Plains cut-off low drifts east toward the Lower MS Valley through late week before weakening. Meanwhile, the CWA will be dominated by an amplifying ridge aloft during the latter part of the week and weekend.
534 AM MDT Mon May 25 2020 The mid level trough axis pushing east of the Divide leaves the CWA under strong north-northwest flow aloft. Cooler air tied with this system will be pushed eastward, as a warmer air mass works its way in from the west and a ridge of high pressure builds over the western CONUS. A passing Canadian low, will deamplify ridging over the western CONUS, keeping zonal flow aloft through Tuesday. Mid to high level moisture spilling over the deamplified ridge will result in an increase in afternoon cloud cover.
713 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020 Cold front has moved through the region and while some low level stratus is evident along the TX/NM state line, VFR conditions are expected to persist outside of convection. /issued 324 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020/ An upper level low pressure trough stretched through the Rockies will split, with a portion re-centering across the Texas South Plains region later today and tonight. A cold front moving southward out of the Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico will cross most of the area before daybreak. The axis of the upper low will be just to our east by tomorrow morning, but the low will be slow to push eastward.
Strong high pressure southeast of Indiana will continue to provide a southerly flow of warm and moist air through the week. Surface analysis early this morning shows high pressure in place across the east coast and broad. poorly organized low pressure over the western plains. water vapor imagery shows a deep trough in place across the Rockies with strong ridging in place across the eastern United States. The blocking ridge was preventing any progress of the approaching trough to the west. with southerly winds around the high persisting. Little overall change is expected this period other than a slow progression of the upper boundary between the ridging to the east and large trough to the west.
The storms will be associated with a weak cold front. NVA/flat ridging aloft today will inhibit convective development, but sufficient low level moisture will be in place for a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. The environment is progged to be very unstable by tonight ahead of a weak cold front. Tuesday will be cooler with clouds eroding and rain ending mainly across the western areas through Tuesday night.
High pressure will generally remain over the area through the middle parts of the week.
1156 AM MDT Mon May 25 2020 Upper trough will slowly cross the forecast area today. There is a better chance of showers over parts of south central South Dakota, through this morning and into early afternoon, as a weak disturbance moves up from the southwest, out ahead of the upper trough. High temperatures today will be slightly cooler than average, mainly in the 60s.
337 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020 Large upper level low pressure area spinning over the western dakotas late this afternoon was shown by the models to move east through the night, weaken and open up into Tuesday. The lift from this trough was bringing some light showers to the east of the Missouri River.