Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
402 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2016 Water vapor imagery this morning exhibits several mid level perturbations across the central CONUS while a stronger upper low enters the Pacific Northwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will linger into the afternoon as the upper trough slowly shifts towards western MO. For highs, due to the denser cloud cover and lingering precip, have lowered temps to the low 80s, perhaps mid 80s over northern areas where dry conditions persist.
They all depict broad ridging through the southern half of the nation with significant pockets of moisture and energy stuck under this key feature.
Depending on how far south these storms make it and the strength of the ridging across most of Texas, the western extent of this line may make it into the eastern portion of the CWA.
127 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2016 High pressure will build in from the west overnight. A weak trough of low pressure will cross the region on Monday. High pressure will crest over the region Monday night and will push offshore southeast of the area on Tuesday.
400 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2016 High pressure from the Great Lakes will cross our region today and move offshore Tuesday.
It will not be very humid today but highs will be in the mid to upper 80s with lows tonight in the low to mid 60s.
Weak high pressure ridging will develop over the area on Monday, but there will still be a somewhat unstable southwest flow aloft in place.
An upper low will slowly shift east of the area over the next couple days with showers gradually decreasing.
Tuesday through the end of the week, the trough to the east will gradually spread west. This high moisture content airmass and lack of cap will allow for scattered to perhaps numerous showers and storms this week with highest chances across Acadiana and eastward where moisture will be higher. This weekend the subtropical ridge over Atlantic pushes toward the area shoving the upper low over SE LA and S MS to the west. It gradually shears out over the weekend over LA as the ridge builds. Mainly light winds and low seas are expected as very weak surface ridging remains over the local waters, however thunderstorms are expected.
The models are mainly keying on convection forming over the highest terrain in our eastern CWA Tuesday afternoon.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM PINELLAS COUNTY TO SARASOTA COUNTY Aloft - An upper level low sprawled across the southeastern states. Surface - Broad low pressure was centered in the east Gulf coastal states while Atlantic high pressure ridged across southern FL to the Gulf. The upper low eases westward. Given the deep moisture along with energy provided by the upper low anticipate scattered to widespread showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms.
Upper low in northwest Washington this morning will slowly move east to the Idaho Panhandle by Tuesday evening. Clouds, showers, and thunderstorms with this system will likely stay very close to the low center, and will just brush the northern parts of the forecast area near Baker and McCall this evening and Tuesday. Temperatures will continue to cool as the low drifts by, dropping temperatures more than ten degrees below normal on Tuesday. Northwest surface winds will be enhanced in the Snake River plain during the day, and over the ridgetops in Oregon during the evening and overnight hours.
650 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2016 High pressure will continue to extend into the region today. A trough of low pressure will track east to west across the area tonight and Tuesday. High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will continue to influence the region today keeping a relatively drier air mass in place. Inverted trough along the western slopes of the Appalachians will move west across the region tonight and tomorrow. a weakening mid level disturbance will be lifting northeast from Illinois into the lower Great Lakes on Tuesday.
345 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2016 06Z surface data has high pressure over the Great Lakes with a frontal boundary running from the southern Plains into the deep South. Quiet and dry conditions will again be seen today and tonight across the area as high pressure slowly moves into the eastern Great Lakes. At 12Z Tuesday the upper level pattern has a trough just onto the west coast with the upper low centered over Washington and Oregon. At this time ridging is starting to build into the central part of the country. This will change through the day though as the upper level system moves eastward causing a low level trough to develop on the lee side of the Rocky Mountains leading to southerly flow to become dominant for the plains and Mississippi River valley.
232 AM PDT Mon Aug 8 2016 A deep and slow moving low pressure system will move into the area over the next few days. This low will bring cooler temperatures and the threat of showers and thunderstorms. Today and Tonight: The weather will be dominated by a slow moving upper level low. For today the low center will gradually wobble over from western Washington to the Cascades and remain parked through the afternoon and evening hours. Aside from the Cascades and possibly the Okanogan Highlands, the rest of eastern Washington and north Idaho should stay fairly dry for the afternoon with breezy southwest winds and increasing clouds due to the slower track of the low.
A weak upper level trough along the West Coast will continue to maintain mild temperatures through most of the week.
Northwest flow will switch northerly over central and northern Montana through the afternoon in response to exiting low pressure over the Dakotas and new lee side trough development over south central Montana. Tuesday, lee side trough develops in the afternoon over northern WY and southern MT. Strong easterly low-level flow out of the Dakotas ahead of the low will bring higher surface dewpoints over Fallon, Custer, and Rosebud counties.
the eastern CWA is quite contrasting with respect to instability, so feel confident that we will see isolated to widely scattered coverage this afternoon, with the higher terrain just to our east being the main trigger.
Short term models signal another 35-40 knot southerly low-level jet developing this evening, feeding moisture transport northward into central/eastern Kansas within the high precipitable water plume.
337 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2016 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a mid/upper level low centered along the WA coast, a ridge over the western Plains to Alberta and a trof over se Canada. Southerly winds on the backside of the high will work to limit lake breeze off Lake Superior on Mon. With 850mb temps roughly 2C higher Mon aftn than this aftn, there should be less cu development, and high temps for most locations will likely be 2 to 5F degrees warmer than today. upper low moving across northern Ontario into Hudson Bay will push a weak cold front southward across Lake Superior by late in the day.
400 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2016 It's another tranquil morning with an expansive area of high pressure centered over the Great Lakes. Fog is indeed patchier this morning than yesterday thanks in part to the warmer temperatures. Today will be slightly warmer than yesterday as WAA begins to strengthen a bit on the backside of the high.
219 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2016 High pressure will build in from the west Monday into Tuesday.
102 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2016 High pressure moving from the upper Great Lakes to New England will bring fair weather Monday and Tuesday. Warmer and more humid conditions will return for the mid to late week period, along with the chance of showers and thunderstorms. Monday and Tuesday, high pressure should bring mostly sunny skies. Highs on Monday and Tuesday forecast to be in the 70s in the higher terrain to 80s in the valleys.
Low clouds are spreading northeastward slowly early this morning and there is a chance for the low stratus and patchy fog to stick around until mid morning. Cloud cover this morning will keep temperatures warmer this morning and then help keep them cooler through the day. Think highs into the low 80s are good for today. Weaker, broad high pressure remains in place across the Southern Plains through the southeastern CONUS, while low pressure spins over the Pac NW. A warmer air mass building back into the region will result in a bump up in temperatures compared to today, with Tuesday's highs currently forecast to reach the upper 80s-lower 90s. Late in the day, and more into the evening/overnight hours, upper level flow starts to turn more southwesterly, as that western CONUS trough digs further south.
Even as the center of the high pulls away, weaker ridging will linger across the western Lakes into mid-week.
140 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2016 High pressure over the Great Lakes will continue to provide fair weather across our area over the next couple of days. Warmer more moist air will overspread the area by midweek bringing a low chance of thunderstorms.
This may be due in part to a capping inversion of warmer air at the lower levels preventing convection from igniting. In addition, lack of convection may allow for much warmer temperatures in some counties, thus may have to expand the Heat Advisory north this afternoon. The best chance for widespread precipitation will arrive towards the end of the week as a cold front makes its way toward the region.
Very little if any in the way of upper support as ridge axis is directly over the high plains. Westerly flow aloft will begin to progressively become a bit more southwesterly Monday night and into Tuesday as high pressure slides east and a closed H5 low moves into the Pacific Northwest. A cold front will work eastward along a trough that will be pulled eastward as the closed low moves further inland.
Just some stratocumulus over the Cascades in response to onshore flow with upper low moving into the Pacific northwest. Low temps a little cooler than the past few night with 40s and 50s. The upper low will move slowly east into the forecast area Monday. Temps at 500mb are -19C at the center of the low so a fair amount of instability expected during the afternoon. Increasing clouds Monday as low pressure system moves into the region.
Water vapor imagery and streamflow analysis depicted a weak upper ridge centered over north Alabama, and upper lows in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and another north of the Bahamas. Convection near the inverted trof axis in northeast AL and northwest GA appeared to be in a slow dissipation phase with stratiform rainfall persisting in GA.
An upper low will meander across the northeast GOMEX through the period. a low pressure system will meander across the panhandle of Florida. Broad low pressure system will stall west of the CWA through the week, with tropical airmass keeping anomalously high moisture over the area.
The 12 km NAM shows a wave moving around the ridge storms breaking out across western Kansas. The 4 km NAM has evening storms tied closer to a warm front across the southern zones this evening. But give the CAMs and the high moisture content, decided to broadbrush the region with slight pops. For temperatures, the NAM is considerably cooler than the other models. Didn't go as quite as cool, but gone with a slightly cooler solution given recent verification trends, moisture fluxes, and potential cloud cover. Warmer highs are anticipated with values in the 90s.
Upper trough still lingering over the Pacific coast anchored by deep low over the Puget Sound.
302 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2016 Sprawling high pressure now centered over Lower Michigan this morning will continue to be the dominant feature for the forecast. While all of the models are in agreement with this feature, it is the low level moisture profile from 850 mbs and below where differences are noted. 00z NAM brings this moisture as far north as the ridgeline in Southeast MI while all of the others keeps it in Northwest and North Central OH. Even without the high pops of the NAM.
Very little if any in the way of upper support as ridge axis is directly over the high plains.
415 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2016 High pressure will continue to extend into the region today. A trough of low pressure will track east to west across the area tonight and Tuesday. High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will continue to influence the region today keeping a relatively drier air mass in place. Inverted trough along the western slopes of the Appalachians will move west across the region tonight and tomorrow. a weakening mid level disturbance will be lifting northeast from Illinois into the lower Great Lakes on Tuesday.
341 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2016 High pressure over the Great Lakes will move east off the Mid Atlantic Coast by Tuesday.
600 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2016 High pressure centered to our north will continue to hold over the Great Lakes for the next 24 hours before edging off to our east on Tuesday. As a result, temperatures may be a few degrees cooler than over east central Illinois this afternoon with highs expected to range from the lower 80s far southwest to the mid and possibly upper 80s over the east and southeast counties. 00Z forecast models continue to expand the subtropical mid/upper level ridge across the southern states, northward over IL through mid week. Tropical heat and humidity will be pushing northward with this ridge into central and southeast IL on Tue and especially by Wed.
312 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2016 Weak high pressure will pass north of the region.
The first major impulse from the stalled low pressure system well to our west has pushed through most of northeast Montana as of late last night through early this morning. Today, models are in fairly good agreement building in a short- wave high pressure ridge and keeping chances for precipitation away from most of northeast Montana. Tuesday, the low pressure center finally makes a sharp turn over the Columbia River basin and accelerates toward the northeast.
355 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2016 High pressure will build in from the west today and crest over the area tonight. The high will move south of the region on Tuesday.
1124 PM MDT SUN AUG 7 2016 Upper level analysis has broad ridge across the central CONUS with closed low over the Washington coast. At the surface, high pressure resides over Minnesota with lee trof developing across central Montana and Wyoming. The upper ridge will rebound over the northern plains on Tuesday as the west coast upper low/trough begins to move eastward.
and Tuesday Canadian high pressure covered the western Great lakes early this morning. Although the high is expected to shift east the next couple days, the western periphery will remain over eastern WI and keep the region dry. Have removed the small pops over northern WI on Tuesday, as models show rain staying northwest of GRB CWA, closer to the cold front that moves into western Lake Superior late in the day.
No significant change in conditions over the next 36 hours, as the upper level ridge dominates conditions over Texas.
This will bring some higher dew points into the region for today, although decent mixing should temper the increase a bit, and will hold in the lower-mid 60s through the afternoon.
high pressure will begin to build across Colorado into the central plains, while embedded energy in southwest flow lifts across the region. High temperatures this afternoon will generally be in the mid to upper 80s across the lower elevations. high pressure will shift east into the central plains with drier southwesterly flow working into Colorado late.
402 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016 An upper level ridge will provide dry conditions this weekend. Highs today will range between the low 70s to low 80s, with Sunday a few degrees warmer.
Later tonight a surge of cooler air will arrive as winds shift to northwest. Upper low and associated trough/cold front will traverse the Plains Saturday night into Sunday. The cold front will be just east of the CWA by Sunday morning with strong CAA in the wake of the front as we head through the day on Sunday.
Lows tonight will fall to the low to mid 40s over the interior central and east. The trough moves east into the upper Great Lakes Sun night into Mon and then moves into the lower Great Lakes Mon night. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF are showing much better agreement at 96 hours with both having a closed 500 mb low east of Lake Superior in Ontario 12z Tue and ridging into the Rockies and southern plains. By 12z Wed, the trough is over the lower Great Lakes and the ridge is into the Plains. The 500 mb ridge then builds into the upper Great Lakes 12z Thu into Fri.
319 AM MDT Sat Sep 24 2016 As upper low moves northeast today and tonight. and do not expect it to be any warmer tonight. The elongated upper trough stretched north to south across the state will push east Sunday with dry northerly flow left in its wake. There may be a few light showers in the high mountains in the early morning hours, but these should dissipate quickly. High surface pressure will keep cool northeasterly flow into the state to produce highs a few degrees cooler than today under mostly clear skies.
Although we are now to the point in the year where freezing temperatures become common for many valleys, those with any remaining sensitive vegetation will want to take precautions Sunday morning. A ridge of high pressure begins building over the Northern Rockies Sunday, with temperatures climbing to near seasonal normals.
217 AM MDT SAT SEP 24 2016 Low pressure will move away from the region today. Expect quiet weather with a gradual warmup into mid week as high pressure settles over the region.
555 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016 A very amplified long wave trough was evident across the western United States with an Upper Ridge centered across the mid section of the nation. Due to the amplified long wave trough and boundary layer winds nearly parallel to the mean upper winds, precipitation may linger in eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin longer.
304 AM MDT SAT SEP 24 2016 Upper low is now centered over southern Wyoming, with leading edge of forcing (associated with jet streak) over western Nebraska/Kansas. Subsidence/deep dry air is building eastward around the southern part of upper low into our western CWA. At the surface a cold front is already moving towards the Colorado border and should be through our CWA by sunrise. Today-Sunday: As upper low continues to shift towards the northern plains large scale subsides as a result of ridging in the west will spread eastward.
356 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016 An upper level trough presently over the eastern Rockies will push out onto the Northern Plains for today and tonight, bringing increasing rain chances to our area during the period. A surface cold front is currently analyzed through west central SD and NE, with showers and thunderstorms streaming northward along this boundary. Cooler air will begin to filter into the area behind the boundary, and looking at lows in the lower to mid 50s overnight. Large closed upper level low continues to swing northeast into south central Canada on Sunday, transitioning the region into cool and brisk northwest flow.
Expect dry, mild and locally breezy north to northeast winds today and Sunday as high pressure builds in over the western states.
617 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016 Slightly drier air will filter into the area for today as an upper-level ridge builds over the region.
This will allow showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon along a cold front moving over our eastern counties.
625 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016 An upper level ridge will provide dry conditions this weekend. Highs today will range between the low 70s to low 80s, with Sunday a few degrees warmer.
An amplified ridge of high pressure remains in place over much of the eastern half of the U. this morning, with a weak upper level low developing along the eastern periphery of the ridge. Overnight lows will fall into the low to mid 70s.
649 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016 A weak cold front will push south across the Ohio River today. High pressure will build into the region tonight, and will remain across the area on Sunday.
An upper level trough will move slowly northeastward from the Rockies and into the Central and Northern Plains today. An associated cold front will move into western Kansas and stall out near Dodge City. Highs today will be cooler with the expected cloud cover and frontal boundary with highs from the low to mid 80s. For tonight, as the upper trough moves northeast, much of the rainfall and storms will be east of Dodge City with a stronger push of cold air after midnight and towards morning. Lows will be in the lower 50s near Garden City and west and mid 50s around Dodge, with low 60s around Medicine Lodge.
113 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016 A weak cold front will drop south across the area tonight into Saturday.
The upper low across the northeast Gulf is forecast to remain in place on Saturday. However, with upper level trough bypassing the SE to the north into the east coast as we head into the middle and latter part of the week and moisture remaining at or above normal levels, rain chances will remain enhanced.
220 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016 A mainly dry cold front will pass through overnight. Fair weather with seasonably cooler temperatures is expected over the weekend. Another cold front will push through early in the new week and could make some rain. A very weak and moisture starved cold front extends east-west just south of a line from Wellsboro to Bradford and westward. Model data pushes cold front all the way through central PA tonight. Although cooler air will begin flowing in on a northerly breeze, that band of clouds along and just behind the front will keep things mild tonight - especially over the south - with mins between u40s in the northern mtns to around 60F in the south.
THE HUGE STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED ON EAST AND IS BEING REPLACED BY A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. TONS OF GROUND MOISTURE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW PATCH FREEZING FOG TO FORM IN SOME VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST AND EASTERN NEVADA SATURDAY MORNING. A DRIER AND WARMER ATMOSPHERE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. Upper low is departed and upper ridge is trying to build over the Great Basin. Previous forecast had areas of freezing fog in northeast and eastern Nevada this morning. With ragged clouds and dewpoints up higher than freezing in some spots, have changed wording to patchy freezing fog. Warming and drying occur under the ridge through the short term.
An upper low situated over the Colorado and Utah border this morning will eject into the northern plains later today. With the ridge still in place overhead, today will once again be a warm day with highs well above normal and generally in the low 90s. Sunday will be slightly cooler as the upper trough approaches and the ridge loses influence across the region, but still above normal and especially so in the delta region of the state. Mid 80s are expected in the northwest on Sunday, but low 90s will be seen in the lower terrain of eastern and southeastern Arkansas Sunday afternoon. However, despite increasing PoPs rainfall amounts still look to be on the low side for this event.
354 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016 High pressure will give dry weather and seasonable temperatures for the weekend. Cold front is crossing into northern West Virginia at 07z and will continue to shift south this morning. High pressure will bring clear skies tonight through Sunday, with seasonably cool temperatures across the I-80 corridor closer to the core of cooler air aloft.
315 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016 Part of a strong western trough/low will move across the northern Rockies and Plains today. Meanwhile, the trough moving across the northern Plains will continue east into the Great Lakes region. This will help push a cold front across Oklahoma and north Texas.
Aloft a ridge remains in place, however it is centered over the NE gulf coast and is gradually weakening.
SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): 500mb ridge across the southeast United States will move eastward today as the 500mb trough/low across the western U. Moisture will pool across northwest TX tonight into Sunday along a weak cold front draped across that part of the state.
258 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016 A cold front continues moving south of the area early this morning.
212 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016 A weak cold front slides into the area on Saturday.