Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
MVFR ceilings prevail across deep south Texas in the wake of the overnight cold front. /issued 412 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): The cold front has pushed south of deep south Texas overnight and north winds prevail across the area this morning. Brownsville radar is currently showing some light rain and drizzle south of the lower Texas Gulf waters. Winds will veer to the southeast tonight as high pressure moves further east. This will allow warmer Gulf air to move into the region tonight. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower 50s across the ranchlands to the upper 50s at the beaches. Tuesday will be warmer with high temperatures in the 70s with decreasing clouds in the afternoon.
A ridge of high pressure on the west coast into Alaska is weak enough to allow small waves to penetrate it and cross into the Great Basin through the week.
High pressure will prevail this week with only periods of high clouds spilling into the region. With a dry airmass locked in place, seasonable morning temperatures will be followed by afternoon highs warmer than average into the 70s. The SW Conus remains trapped in dampened ridging between deep longwave negative height anomalies covering the eastern Conus and a southern stream cutoff cyclone south of the Baja peninsula.
For today, slightly warmer temperatures are expected with a return to southerly winds. The warming trend will be short-lived as another cold front passes by tonight into tomorrow morning. Currently, there are two periods where light rain and/or freezing rain will be possible. The first period is Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, behind the cold front. The most likely area for an overlap of subfreezing temperatures and rain will be across western north Texas, where colder air will likely advect faster and light rain may persist longer.
Some light freezing rain and sleet will be possible in the John Day Basin and parts of central Oregon where some warmer air is expected to move in aloft.
711 AM EST Mon Dec 25 2017 Low pressure will move rapidly to the northeast today. The best gusts should be on the ridges after some mixing kicks in this morning. Temps will only get into the teens for maxes in the NW, and near freezing in the far SE on Tuesday. An upper level low will move through the Great Lakes and through New York.
/issued 312 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2017/ Yesterday's frontal passage has led to a cooler and drier airmass to envelope the Four-State Region on this Christmas morning.
At the surface, a temperature boundary/front extends from Glacier NP SE to west of Billings, with high pressure building SE out of Canada. MARTIN A persistent upper level low over south-central Canada and an upper ridge over the west coast will dominate the weather pattern through the period.
For the remainder of the week, high pressure will again become the dominate weather feature over the region. Thus, temperatures will remain above seasonal averages and warm slightly through late week when portions of the Central Coast may warm into the lower 70s. SFO Bridge Approach. Weak high pressure will continue off the California coast through Tuesday night.
1040 AM EST Mon Dec 25 2017 Latest WPC surface analysis shows a cold front draped east to west over south central Florida. Light wind this morning will increase by noon to 10 KT as a cold front turns winds to the north- northeast. The dome of high pressure that has been ho-ho-holding in place over the area for the last week is finally beginning to lose its grip, which is allowing the front to slip southward. Along its journey, the temperature gradient will slacken and the boundary will become more diffuse as a ridge of high pressure builds into the southeast states and winds behind the boundary veer to a more northeasterly direction with time.
As high pressure builds in from the west, winds will drop below 10 kts this afternoon, and be light and variable tonight.
With upper level jet remaining across the area there will be gusty winds over the higher passes with blowing snow.
Arctic high pressure and quite cold temperatures will be the rule this week. Gusty winds at the outset of clearing behind the snow shower bands will settle down for a few hours but some gustiness will return late morning, mixing down in subsiding air behind exiting upper trough. The weak surface and upper trough bringing the clouds this evening will yield a swath of light snow across the Ohio Valley late tonight and Tuesday.
SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): The cold front has pushed south of deep south Texas overnight and north winds prevail across the area this morning. Brownsville radar is currently showing some light rain and drizzle south of the lower Texas Gulf waters. Winds will veer to the southeast tonight as high pressure moves further east. This will allow warmer Gulf air to move into the region tonight. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower 50s across the ranchlands to the upper 50s at the beaches. Tuesday will be warmer with high temperatures in the 70s with decreasing clouds in the afternoon.
630 AM EST Mon Dec 25 2017 An arctic cold front will surge offshore early today. Cold high pressure will build into NC from the west today, then settle over the area tonight and Tuesday. The high pressure will settle overhead tonight.
Chilly conditions this Christmas morning as a result from high pressure that entered the region yesterday and brought dry and cold air. But this will be short lived as a coastal trough begins to develop to return moisture to South Texas. For today, things should remain rather quiet, but by Tuesday as the coastal trough becomes better defined and lifts to the north, weak to moderate upglide within the 295K-300K isentropic levels should lead to chances for light rain, with greatest chances across the Gulf waters north toward the Victoria Crossroads.
Temperatures will not be as cold tonight, with lows expected to range from the lower 30s across the far northern and northwestern parts of our area, to near 40 in our far southeastern counties. 19 (Tuesday through Monday) Patchy freezing drizzle possible for the Big country on Tuesday night. After our brief warmup today, another cold front makes its way across the area on Tuesday, continuing the roller coaster of temperature swings.
For the remainder of the week, high pressure will again become the dominate weather feature over the region. Thus, temperatures will remain above seasonal averages and warm slightly through late week when portions of the Central Coast may warm into the lower 70s.
For today, cold air will continue to move in behind the cold front that passed through the region yesterday.
Eastern areas, the cooler airmass will be slow to move east and highs will remain in the 50s. Tuesday we will see another cold front sag into the Permian Basin by mid day then finally pushing the rest of the way through Tuesday night with a secondary surge of cold air. Will have cooler temperatures for the Permian Basin Tuesday with 60s and 70s elsewhere. For areas that drop to or below freezing, freezing drizzle will be possible. For now, will hold off on including freezing drizzle in the forecast until confidence is higher.
Model sounding are still showing a slight chance for freezing rain east of the Cascades Tuesday night.
Since recent high temperature forecasts have trended a little on the low side, opted to slightly increase high temperatures to reflect the ADjLAV which seems to have a better handle on temperatures for today.
Much cooler air is expected to reach I-70 between 2100-0000 UTC, and then surge south during the night.
Nebraska can't escape fast northwest flow as a cold upper low spins over northern Ontario and a ridge builds off the Pacific coast.
Broad 500 mb troughing remains over the area this forecast period with cold air entrenched and lake effect snow continuing as well. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a broad 500 mb trough over most of N. This trough remains over the area through Mon with the cold air remaining as well. With a bitterly cold air mass flowing into the Upper Great Lakes behind a passing cold front, lake effect shsn will become widespread off Lake Superior under w to nw winds. The arrival of the arctic air mass will also result in periods of heavy freezing spray late tonight into mid week. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Tuesday for LSZ162-240>251-263>267.
Remaining cloud cover will be decreasing rapidly this morning behind a cold front as cooler and drier air moves into the area. Expect a mostly sunny day, although high temperatures will be noticeably cooler than yesterday, ranging from the lower 50s across the northwest to lower 60s across the far southeast big bend.
Highs today in Billings will be in the low single digits, and this will likely put it as the 2nd or 3rd coldest Christmas day on record.
323 AM PST Mon Dec 25 2017 A ridge of high pressure will remain over the West Coast for the next several days. A couple of weak weather disturbances will move over the top of the ridge bringing a small threat of High Sierra snow tonight and several rounds of high clouds over the next several days.
Any additional accumulation will be an inch or two across the NW snowbelt, and perhaps an inch on the ridgetops of the Laurels. Elsewhere, one-half of an inch or less will fall across the Central Ridge and Valley region. to the low-mid 30s in the SE. Temps will only get into the teens for maxes in the NW, and near freezing in the far SE on Tuesday. An upper level low will move through the Great Lakes and through New York.
Surface analysis shows the center of the anticyclone over central AR.
Light wind this morning will increase by noon to 10 KT as a cold front turns winds to the north- northeast. The dome of high pressure that has been ho-ho-holding in place over the area for the last week is finally beginning to lose its grip, which is allowing the front to slip southward. Along its journey, the temperature gradient will slacken and the boundary will become more diffuse as a ridge of high pressure builds into the southeast states and winds behind the boundary veer to a more northeasterly direction with time.
534 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2017 The main concern for the upcoming forecast will be the colder conditions for the upcoming week, and the transition comes courtesy of a cold front working through the area toward 10z, generally along a Tracy-Sioux Falls-Pickstown line. Tuesday will be spent under the core of the arctic ridge, and other than a bit better wind due to mixing toward southwest MN and parts of northwest IA, will be a fairly light wind day overall. The ridge lingers enough into Tuesday night to allow for a free-fall in temps especially across northwest Iowa in the evening, and perhaps only a hint of recovery with winds turning light southerly late.
More of a low level easterly flow will develop tonight as the high moves a little bit to the east. Further south to the I-10 corridor, temperatures were in the lower 40s to mid 40s along the coast. warmer southerly flow will develop late this morning into the afternoon which should allow clouds to roll back gradually late this afternoon and increase rapidly tonight into Tuesday as moisture increases over the colder surface. broad troughing covers much of the United States.
WV imagery early this holiday morning depicts a large scale upper trof that extends across most of the Canadian provinces, with lobes of energy rotating around the low. As the reinforcing cold air advection in the low levels continues tonight, lows fall into the single digits north, with teens in our south. The GFS may also be too aggressive on the depth of the lower tropospheric moisture with the NAM depicting what may be a more realistic BL given the dry northeast flow.
An arctic cold front was pushing south across the northern Plains this morning, and will drop down into our area today. Cold high pressure (1045 mb high center) builds over the area Tuesday night, and have lows mainly in the 3 below to 11 below zero range.
529 PM MDT Sat Oct 7 2017 Weak upper ridging sits atop the CWA with mostly sunny skies as the area is inbetween storm systems. The next system will be an upper trough digging into the western CONUS tonight into Sunday morning. Clear skies are expected across most areas this evening, but clouds will increase from north to south as a cold front pushes into the area. Upper trough will deepen over the western CONUS Sunday with forcing aloft increasing as a series of waves cross the area.
652 PM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017 20Z/3 pm surface map shows 993 mb low pressure over west central WI with a cold front thru far eastern IA into far western IL and eastern MO. The cold front is forecast to quickly sweep eastward across central and eastern IL during mid and late afternoon, reaching the IN border by sunset. Cooler lows in the low to mid 50s overnight, mildest in southeast IL.
Attention then turns to the snow event as a strong cold front moves across the CWA Sunday while an upper trough/low dig southward into Wyoming and Utah.
Recent rainfall may aid in patchy fog across NE OK while typically cooler valleys across far NW AR will also be susceptible. /Issued 304 PM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017/ The cold front has now exited the area to the south and east, leaving mostly clear skies in its wake.
The highest wind speeds and rainfall accumulations are expected Sunday afternoon. Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 76 72 83 / 90 100 100 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 78 69 84 / 80 100 100 60 Oak Ridge, TN 69 75 69 84 / 80 100 100 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 77 67 81 / 80 100 100 70 NC.
/Tonight through Sunday/ Deformation area associated with upper low currently across central Iowa with light to moderate rainfall in a narrow band. Thermal ridge will pass into the state on Sunday ahead of surface boundary which will sink into the state by afternoon. /Sunday night through Saturday/ A deep trough will drop through the est and Rockies Sunday into Sunday night which will buckle the flow putting the region in broad southwest flow.
745 PM MST Sat Oct 7 2017 A vigorous low pressure system moving through the four corners will result in breezy conditions and much cooler temperatures as a cold front sweeps across the lower deserts the next several days.
A cold frontal passage with an ongoing wind advisory into early this evening is the main highlight of the short term period. Cold front stretched from southern Manitoba into the Turtle Mountains and across central/western ND. Low level instability/steep lapse rates will continue through the evening as a cold pocket of air at 850mb, reflection the cold front aloft, begins to push across northwest ND. Cooler Sunday with highs in the 50s and northwest winds 10 to 20 mph. There could be a brief shower or two in the north cental and northwest during the afternoon, along and ahead of a secondary cold front.
There is a weak cold front that will move through much of the forecast area late tonight into Sunday. The front should be dry and not even many clouds, but the temperatures in the central part of Nebraska will be a bit cooler than further to the south.
/issued 315 PM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017/ Outer bands from Hurricane Nate are pushing northward from the Gulf Coast at this time while an upper trof is interacting with tropical moisture over the Mid-South. Temperatures in this area have risen into the lower 90s thus expect this band to continue to blossom over the next several hours as it moves northward into the Mid-South. In addition, other development is possible as the upper trof interacts with the tropical moisture during peak heating.
618 PM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017 An upper trough will dig southeastward into the Great Basin through Sunday.
1221 AM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Cold front approaches tonight, with gusty wind and showers.
Could also see some fog development in the lower valley areas across northwest Arkansas with clear skies/light winds.
516 PM PDT Sat Oct 7 2017 An exiting cold front will continue to keep breezy conditions across the Columbia Basin and and a few lingering showers over the Idaho Panhandle. The atmosphere behind the cold front is rather unstable and this will result in scattered showers across portions of the Inland Northwest through Sunday.
With the cooler air in place highs should remain in the 60s with a north wind about 10 to 20 mph as low pressure at the surface gets more organized over Colorado. Clouds will increase on Sunday night out ahead of an upper level trough situated over the Rockies which will move eastward.
Therefore gusty west winds of 25-40kts will likely continue on the ridge tops and higher lee slopes of the Front Range for another couple of hours. Cross sections show some amplification in the mountain wave near mountain top level which should result an increase in winds across the higher mountains and foothills from late this evening though about midnight. with wind gusts to 70 over the higher peaks. the upper level flow aloft becomes more southwesterly as an upper level trough of low pressure deepens over the northern Great Basin. Temperatures on Sunday should be around 5 degrees cooler than today due to increasing clouds. a few showers may begin to move into the very northern sections of the CWA as a strong cold front moves out of Wyoming into northern Colorado.
After that will see some mid deck and the high cirrus/cirrostratus outflow from the tropical system overnight.
1143 PM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017 An upper trough will dig southeastward into the Great Basin through Sunday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the low to mid 50s, although a few low lying locations may drop into the mid to upper 40s. Unseasonably hot temperatures are forecast, with highs mainly in the low 90s.
A cold front will pass through the region tonight with the main impact being increasing cloudiness. Cooler temperatures are expected on Sunday with high in the upper 50s to the lower 60s. These models are showing dew points dropping into the lower 20s.
635 PM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017 A weak cold front moved SE through central sections of AR early this evening.
802 PM EDT Sat Oct 7 2017 Eastern valleys have already decoupled with a 6 to 8 degree ridge valley split already developing. With ceilings still at or above 12kft, it will take awhile for the low levels to moisten up. Did tweak QPF amounts tonight to show the highest in the bluegrass with much less elsewhere as it take awhile to moisten up the low levels. Our streams are at base flow during what is the lowest water level of the annual cycle.
1147 PM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017 The cold front and showers have exited to the east, as drier air blasts across Illinois. Low temperatures look on track to bottom out in the low to mid 50s. 20Z/3 pm surface map shows 993 mb low pressure over west central WI with a cold front thru far eastern IA into far western IL and eastern MO. The cold front is forecast to quickly sweep eastward across central and eastern IL during mid and late afternoon, reaching the IN border by sunset. Cooler lows in the low to mid 50s overnight, mildest in southeast IL.
A positively tilted upper trough extending from S CEN Canada to UT will develop Sun into Mon. There is significant difference in the models regarding the strength of this low with the 12Z NAM being most agressive. The positively tilted nature of the trough will help drive a strong front south ahead of the upr low early Mon.
There gusty west winds of 25-40kts will likely continue on the ridge tops and higher lee slopes of the Front Range for another few hours. Cross sections show some amplification in the mountain wave near mountain top level which should result an increase in winds across the higher mountains and foothills from late this evening though about midnight. with wind gusts to 70 over the higher peaks. the upper level flow aloft becomes more southwesterly as an upper level trough of low pressure deepens over the northern Great Basin. Temperatures on Sunday should be around 5 degrees cooler than today due to increasing clouds. a few showers may begin to move into the very northern sections of the CWA as a strong cold front moves out of Wyoming into northern Colorado.
725 PM EDT Sat Oct 7 2017 Aviation A cold front cross Lake Michigan this evening will produce a line of showers and thunderstorms, some of which may produce winds to 50-60 mph. Winds will diminish and skies will clear later tonight as high pressure builds into the region.
That forcing should end early Sunday morning, but then round two will come in the form of the decaying Tropical Cyclone Nate.
Uncertainty in the overnight forecast as enhanced coastal convergence may develop after midnight along and offshore of the coastal counties of west central Florida from mainly Pinellas county north to Levy county as the low level winds over the land back a bit to the southeast.
Look for dry and mild conditions on Sunday with windy conditions developing ahead of an approaching cold front.
Tonight and Sunday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show low pressure centered over northeast Iowa, with a stationary front extending northeast across north-central Wisconsin early this afternoon. Periods of rain continue to lift north ahead of the low and mid-level dry slot, which is sliding into southwestern WI. As the low moves to the northeast, precip trends is the main forecast concern. Other than a moisture starved trough providing scattered clouds over central and north-central WI, the rest of the area should see mostly sunny skies with a breezy south wind.
945 PM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017 At 3 PM, a low pressure area was located between Waukon, IA and Caledonia, MN. Thunderstorms were occurring near and ahead of this low pressure area. In the wake of this low pressure area, the deformation band will move quickly east across the area. On Sunday afternoon and night, a Canadian cold front will move southeast through the region.
853 PM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017 The cold front and showers have exited to the east, as drier air blasts across Illinois. Low temperatures look on track to bottom out in the low to mid 50s. 20Z/3 pm surface map shows 993 mb low pressure over west central WI with a cold front thru far eastern IA into far western IL and eastern MO. The cold front is forecast to quickly sweep eastward across central and eastern IL during mid and late afternoon, reaching the IN border by sunset. Cooler lows in the low to mid 50s overnight, mildest in southeast IL.
1053 PM EDT Sat Oct 7 2017 A weak cold front will bring showers to the region tonight and early Sunday.
850 PM EDT Sat Oct 7 2017 Cold front approaches tonight, with gusty wind and showers.
Warm and dry conditions across the region today will give way to a strong cold front on Sunday.
625 PM MDT Sat Oct 7 2017 The high wind warning for south/east central areas has been allowed to expire. Strong west flow aloft will be ahead of an incoming Pacific cold front and low pressure trough. As the cold front approaches later tonight, light snow showers will develop across the north. Winds will shift to the north northeast and gradually decrease behind the cold front.
953 PM EDT Sat Oct 7 2017 Update A cold front cross Lake Michigan this evening will produce a line of showers and thunderstorms, some of which may produce winds to 50-60 mph. Winds will diminish and skies will clear later tonight as high pressure builds into the region.
An approaching Pacific trough and associated cold front will drop down into the northern Great Basin Sunday afternoon, increasing southwesterly flow over our forecast area. This will result in dry and breezy conditions ahead of the front with the lowest relative humidities and gustiest winds expected in the Four Corners region. The cold front will begin to infiltrate our northern areas Sunday afternoon with scattered showers developing along and behind the boundary.
647 PM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017 Just a few showers remain across the eastern CWA this afternoon, as a cold front continues its progress across the region. Highs on Sunday will be around 80 degrees, with dewpoints in the mid 50s north and west of Springfield; values will then increase into the low 60s closer to the southeastern corner of the forecast area.