Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Scattered rain showers will continue across the eastern part of the CWA into this evening before the slow moving system finally begins to exit to the east ahead of approaching high pressure. As the high settles in over the region on Saturday, will see clouds clear and slightly warmer temperatures return. The high will remain through Saturday night, keeping conditions dry.
543 PM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021 An area of high pressure will bring dry and fairly warm conditions across the Commonwealth for the first half of the weekend.
The broad upper-level ridge that has been persistent over the region for the past couple weeks is finally starting to break down or gets shoved off to the east over the Atlantic.
A weak trough which brought mid to high clouds and virga to our region today will exit tonight with clearing skies in its wake. A trough to our north this weekend will spread scattered high clouds across our area with no impacts. An upper level ridge centered to our southwest will create very pleasant conditions over the weekend.
845 PM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021 Dry weather will continue under high pressure through Saturday.
A weak disturbance will approach the region Saturday, bringing the threat of a few showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain. High pressure will build through the weekend.
816 PM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021 Dry weather will continue under high pressure through Saturday.
815 PM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021 Dry and pleasant fall weather continues with high pressure through Saturday. High pressure will continue to provide clear skies and nearly calm flow through Saturday. Any fog will gradually lift into low stratus and then dissipate by 14Z Saturday morning, giving way to another nice, dry day as high pressure and dry air maintain control over the area. Tonight's temperatures will be similar than last nights, generally in the mid 40s northern portions of southeast OH, WV and our northeast mountains, into the low 50s extreme southern WV and southwest VA. Highs on Saturday will reach the lower 80s lowlands, ranging into the mid 60s higher elevations.
545 PM MDT Fri Oct 1 2021 Upper level water vapor depicts the stream of moisture rotating around the northwestern periphery of the low early this afternoon. This morning's attractive cyclone will lift northeast into the Great Plains this evening, as an upstream trough drives into the Pacific NW. The exiting system will also cutoff the West Slope from its source of Tropical moisture and a transitory ridge slides in its place.
Despite this, high pressure remains anchored over the southeastern U.
635 PM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021 An area of high pressure will bring dry and fairly warm conditions across the Commonwealth for the first half of the weekend.
/issued 414 PM CDT Fri Oct 1 2021/ An upper level low pressure system rotating across New Mexico will eject across the northern Texas Panhandle tonight into eastern Kansas late Saturday. As a result, as mentioned in the previous forecast, a short wavelength but high amplitude ridge will be the buffer between a developing low over the SE Pacific and the one over the SE CONUS. Highs will climb slightly above normal late in the week as the ridge axis shifts east of us and a somewhat warmer airmass builds in, out ahead of the Pacific low that eventually gets absorbed by the Polar Jet well to our west and north.
The low and mid cloud cover that was over the Missouri River valley earlier is dissipating/shifting further east. Scattered rain showers will continue across the eastern part of the CWA into this evening before the slow moving system finally begins to exit to the east ahead of approaching high pressure. As the high settles in over the region on Saturday, will see clouds clear and slightly warmer temperatures return. The high will remain through Saturday night, keeping conditions dry.
00Z OUN sounding indicating poor lapse rates for much in the way of thunder, but those lapse rate will increase as lift approaches and cooler temps aloft move in. Diffluent upper flow pattern ahead of southern stream closed low will interact with deep moisture to offer fairly widespread precipitation, including some thunder, later tonight. Dry conveyor belt/subsidence working west to east should delineate the western extent of more contiguous precipitation during the morning, with lingering showers or light rain until the mid-upper low passes later in the morning or midday.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 83 66 78 66 / 0 20 20 70 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 83 63 78 64 / 0 10 20 60 80 Oak Ridge, TN 61 83 64 77 64 / 0 10 20 70 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 81 57 77 60 / 0 10 10 50 60.
Forecast area will remain under a flat ridge of high pressures with varying amounts of high clouds through Saturday. Temperatures will be slightly warmer and winds will be light.
Upper low continues to spin over the Four Corners, and water vapor imagery shows it slowly moving toward the Central Plains. Without a good mechanism for forcing at the surface and the better upper level support still to our southwest, have gone with a dry forecast until the upper low inches into our area. Additionally, forecast soundings only show deep saturation through the profile for short periods of time during the day with CAPE up to 1000 J/kg at most, although this is on the high end with many places at 500 J/kg or less.
728 PM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021 An area of high pressure will bring dry and fairly warm conditions across the Commonwealth for the first half of the weekend.
853 PM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021 An area of high pressure will bring dry and fairly warm conditions across the Commonwealth for the first half of the weekend.
705 PM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021 VFR conditions will hold throughout the forecast as high pressure drifts to the middle Atlantic coast tonight. Low pressure to the west will advance into the western Great Lakes on Saturday with cirrus thickening during the day. Lower clouds will hold off until Saturday night when showers will also develop as the low encroaches on the region. Lower amplitude upper ridging will continue to mark conditions tonight and early Saturday, as the mean ridge axis only slowly exits eastward in response to pending height falls timed to arrive for the back half of the weekend.
Current temperatures are in the low to middle 70s. More widespread showers and storms are expected on Saturday as an upper trough ejects to the northeast. A slow moving cold front will move across the Southern Plains on Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will continue Saturday night as the cold front reaches western Arkansas.
High pressure centered over the Carolinas extends along the Atlantic coast of FL, maintaining deep easterly flow across the region. Overnight lows will trend warmer, with brisk onshore flow keeping lows in the mid to upper 70s at the coast, lower 70s inland. (previous) High pressure along the mid Atlc coast will build over the local waters and tighten the pressure gradient.
512 PM MDT Fri Oct 1 2021 Issued at 230 PM MDT Fri Oct 1 2021 A pleasant and mild weekend is in store for our CWA as an upper-level ridge begins to push towards our region.
414 PM CDT Fri Oct 1 2021 An upper level low pressure system rotating across New Mexico will eject across the northern Texas Panhandle tonight into eastern Kansas late Saturday. As a result, as mentioned in the previous forecast, a short wavelength but high amplitude ridge will be the buffer between a developing low over the SE Pacific and the one over the SE CONUS. Highs will climb slightly above normal late in the week as the ridge axis shifts east of us and a somewhat warmer airmass builds in, out ahead of the Pacific low that eventually gets absorbed by the Polar Jet well to our west and north.
515 PM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021 Dry weather will continue under high pressure through Saturday.
1140 PM MDT Fri Oct 1 2021 Upper level water vapor depicts the stream of moisture rotating around the northwestern periphery of the low early this afternoon. This morning's attractive cyclone will lift northeast into the Great Plains this evening, as an upstream trough drives into the Pacific NW. The exiting system will also cutoff the West Slope from its source of Tropical moisture and a transitory ridge slides in its place.
Very warm and dry conditions will continue through the weekend, though cooler temperatures are expected for coastal areas with some marine layer clouds and dense fogat times.
Showers are also occurring over parts of the Northern Plains and is in response to an upper level trough/forcing per water vapor satellite imagery.
More clearing expected tonight with fairly light winds, so we should drop down into the low to mid 40s, with some patchy fog again not out of the question.
an upper level low was making its way eastward into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles with showers and convection wrapping around on the eastern side of the low center. a decrease in mid level moisture into Eastern Oklahoma was noted by the higher cloud heights. the upper level low is expected to continue its easterly movement into Western Oklahoma by Saturday morning. As the upper low approaches late tonight and into Saturday morning.
With the upper level ridge axis now well east of the forecast area, CAMs are in strong agreement that the amalgamation of precipitation currently forming in central Iowa should spread NNE with the upper level forcing and impact the western half of the forecast area before sunset. NCAPE profiles are rather low through tonight and thus the thunder potential is on the lower side as well. An upper-level closed low scoots to our south Saturday night, as another barrels south out of Canada.
341 AM EDT Sat Oct 2 2021 Dry weather will continue under high pressure for one more day. Rain chances return tomorrow with an approaching low pressure system and cold front. Broad high pressure has remained over the area keeping clear skies in place. The light winds and cooler temps have resulted in some fog development over most locations, especially the river valleys. The ridge axis of high pressure weakens a bit and slides east allowing for the frontal system to push into the region.
This is ahead of an upper level low pressure area that should reach southeast Colorado by midnight then into the Dodge City, Kansas area by sunrise Saturday morning. Low temperatures are expected to range from the low to mid 40s across far eastern Colorado (away from the better rain chances and less cloud cover) to the upper 40s to low 50s elsewhere. rain chances continue to decrease from west to east during the day as the upper low moves toward the Topeka area. High temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 70s.
128 AM EDT Sat Oct 2 2021 Dry weather will continue under high pressure through Saturday.
Today and tonight: A vigorous mid/upper-level low observed over the central/southern High Plains early this morning will evolve into an open wave while translating east-northeast into the lower-MO Valley and Ozarks by tonight.
Sct convection may develop late this afternoon through the evening over SE OK/adjacent SW AR into NE TX, ahead of a weak cold front that will approach the area from the NW after 06Z. Additionally, moisture trapped beneath the low-level inversion will allow for widespread low clouds tonight.
1126 PM MDT Fri Oct 1 2021 Issued at 230 PM MDT Fri Oct 1 2021 A pleasant and mild weekend is in store for our CWA as an upper-level ridge begins to push towards our region.
Warm and humid today with isolated showers in the afternoon, mainly in the higher elevations. Discussion: In the upper levels, a ridge is centered over the Mid-Atlantic today and a trough is moving into the Mississippi Valley tonight. At the surface, high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic is weakening and drifting eastward as low pressure is strengthening near the Great Lakes. A cold front will be near the Mississippi River late tonight. Another warm day is expected with highs in the lower 80s in the valley. Tonight, another chance for showers is expected after midnight with the best chance in the early morning hours as the best forcing (upper trough and low level cold front) move eastward toward the region.
Above normal temperatures continue today with highs near and around 80 degrees, but trending cooler into the work week. Ridging overhead breaks down this morning as vorticity from the west and southwest moves in along with the low level jet from the west.
Lower CIGS have already started cropping up over our northern CWA tonight and combined with clearing skies, light winds and the low dewpoint spreads, the prospects of patchy fog will prevail across these locations through the early morning hours.
The trend has been for the upper low to track a bit further south than forecast so some of our northwest counties may not see as much rain as advertised.
252 AM MDT Sat Oct 2 2021 Across the region this morning, much of the area remains cloudy due to the slow passage of an upper low, which is moving slowly eastward from extreme southwest Kansas. Light rainfall continues to pinwheel around the northern periphery of the upper low, bringing light scattered showers to mainly areas south of the Interstate. Going into today, the influence of the upper low and associated light showers will wane from west to east as the morning progresses with only a few showers in the far east by midday. The arrival of the ridge and subsequent cooler airmass will give the CWA highs only into the lower and mid 70s.
Middle Tennessee continues to be influenced by the upper ridge, but that changes today as the ridging weakens and slides east ahead of an upper low in the Central Plains that will open up and move toward our area. Rain chances will increase this afternoon with the upper trough getting closer. Rain chances really ramp up overnight as the trough axis approaches the Mississippi River.
1216 AM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 For the 06Z TAFs: Main concern for this cycle is the low cloud and fog potential here during the next several hours. Low pressure system continues to spin up moisture over the Panhandles as it approaches from NM. The low will lift to the northeast Saturday evening and give way to a building ridge, which should result in continued warm and dry conditions.
Otherwise, today will see mostly sunny skies return as high pressure builds again over the region with highs in the 70s.
McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 66 78 66 77 / 20 20 70 80 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 63 78 64 77 / 10 20 60 80 80 Oak Ridge, TN 83 64 77 64 75 / 10 20 70 80 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 57 77 60 75 / 10 10 50 60 80.
225 AM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 Weak lift ahead of an upper level low pressure system forced scattered convection across the region overnight. 65 inches of precipitable water, therefore, additional heavy downpours are likely today as the upper level low approaches from the west. Meanwhile, with the upper low getting closer, deep shear increases between 30 and 40 knots.
Mostly clear skies elsewhere have resulted in cooler temperatures tonight with values hovering right around normal for early October. As far as high temperatures go, it'll be a warmer (though still seasonable) day across the western slope in response to mostly sunny skies with upper 60s to mid 70s expected for most valley locations.
1127 PM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021 An area of high pressure will bring dry and fairly warm conditions across the Commonwealth for the first half of the weekend.
350 AM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 The upper-level ridge that has been positioned over the Midwest the last couple of days is beginning to shift further eastward as the Southwest cut-off low begins to eject into the Great Plains. Forcing from weak, subtle vorticity maxima ahead of the approaching cut-off low has utilized the moist, weakly unstable air mass over the CWA to produce scattered showers and a brief thunderstorm or two this morning.
An upper level low is currently moving across the region early this morning. There is a small concern if small showers will develop in the wrap around signature of the low. Since the low will move quickly to our east, do think that highs today should be able to rebound back into the 70s. Have gone with a slightly warmer solution for highs in considering the subsidence that is expected to develop in the wake of the departing synoptic low. High pressure will sink southward across the region this evening.
143 AM MDT Sat Oct 2 2021 An upper level ridge continues its development across southeast Idaho which keeps conditions dry, skies clear, and winds light and variable.
256 AM EDT Sat Oct 2 2021 Upper air pattern consists of 500 mb trough over the Rockies and a ridge over the ern half of the U.
Overall, little to no hazards are expected for the rest of today once the low clouds and fog burn off, and really through the remainder of the short term we are not expecting any hazardous weather either. An H5 closed low over the Panhandles will exit east today, and in the wake we will have 500mb height rises over the Panhandles with northwesterly flow.
We may see a slightly better chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms over northwest IA by the later afternoon as weak instability develops and some influence is realized by another upper level low lifting into the Central Plains during this time frame. There may be a break in the clouds over the western CWA by afternoon, and this will allow temperatures to reach the lower 70s over that area.
High temperatures will be slightly cooler than they have been in recent days.
334 AM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 The highlights for this forecast package are rain and thunderstorm chances today, followed by pleasant fall-like weather for much of the next workweek. Through the day, the low will progress east-northeast through the region.
344 AM EDT Sat Oct 2 2021 High pressure will extend into the region for much of today, then shift offshore this afternoon and tonight. A cold front will approach from the west early in the upcoming work week as an upper level low develops and lingers across the eastern U. The high is expected to move offshore during the afternoon. Highs will likely rebound into the lower to mid 80s. Dry conditions will continue tonight with high pressure settling offshore. Heights begin to fall from the west as the mid/upper trough develops from the Plains into the Mississippi Valley. High pressure will be centered offshore and there will be a well established WAA pattern.
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 The trend through the short term portion of the forecast will call for clearing skies and drier, warmer conditions. This high drifts slowly eastward through the remainder of the weekend.
The catalyst for these storms will be a closed upper level trough that is evident early this morning on satellite imagery over the Panhandles of OK/TX. This upper level trough today will move to central Kansas. By this evening, the closed upper low is forecast to open up into a more progressive trough which will move through the CWA tonight, continuing shower and thunderstorm chances.
201 AM EDT Sat Oct 2 2021 Weak upper level ridge across Gulf of Mexico and Florida to shift south this weekend as a closed low near the Oklahoma Panhandle opens up and moves east.
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 The ridge over the eastern CONUS will continue to break down today as a potent trough moves through the Southern Plains.
355 AM EDT Sat Oct 2 2021 High pressure will move offshore later today.
1143 PM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021 VFR conditions will hold into Saturday evening before low level moisture returns on south/southwest flow in advance of the next approaching low pressure system. Lower amplitude upper ridging will continue to mark conditions tonight and early Saturday, as the mean ridge axis only slowly exits eastward in response to pending height falls timed to arrive for the back half of the weekend.
521 AM MDT Sat Oct 2 2021 Across the region this morning, much of the area remains cloudy due to the slow passage of an upper low, which is moving slowly eastward from extreme southwest Kansas. Light rainfall continues to pinwheel around the northern periphery of the upper low, bringing light scattered showers to mainly areas south of the Interstate. Going into today, the influence of the upper low and associated light showers will wane from west to east as the morning progresses with only a few showers in the far east by midday. The arrival of the ridge and subsequent cooler airmass will give the CWA highs only into the lower and mid 70s.
Ridging overhead breaks down this morning as vorticity from the west and southwest moves in along with the low level jet from the west. Forecast confidence degrades as the interaction between the individual waves is handled differently in the models as the upper low stalls nearby. As such, cannot completely rule out a shower through the upcoming work week, but it is expected to be light as columnar moisture underneath upper lows are generally dry. At least 50 percent cloud cover can be expected to continue with the forcing for the upper low remaining nearby.
641 AM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 Weak lift ahead of an upper level low pressure system forced scattered convection across the region overnight. 65 inches of precipitable water, therefore, additional heavy downpours are likely today as the upper level low approaches from the west. Meanwhile, with the upper low getting closer, deep shear increases between 30 and 40 knots.
The highlights for this forecast package are rain and thunderstorm chances today, followed by pleasant fall-like weather for much of the next workweek. Through the day, the low will progress east-northeast through the region. Long range models are in agreement with one another on an upper low becoming cutoff over the lower Mississippi River Valley early this week.
Really though, warm and dry conditions are forecast through the weekend with mostly clear skies due to an upper level high pressure system sitting over Wyoming.
328 AM PDT Sat Oct 2 2021 A warm weekend is in store with mostly sunny skies as light offshore flow persists thanks to high pressure over the Great Basin.
(Today through Sunday afternoon) An upper trough is centered over the Central/Southern Plains with West Texas and Southeast New Mexico at the base of the trough. The previously mentioned upper trough moves eastward on Sunday and expands to include the Midwest region.
The temperature forecast today leans on the warmer guidance blend for highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. An upper low across wrn KS this morning will move east and nearly full sun conditions should develop across wrn and ncntl Nebraska this afternoon.
Middle Tennessee continues to be influenced by the upper ridge, but that changes today as the ridging weakens and slides east ahead of an upper low in the Central Plains that will open up and move toward our area. Rain chances will increase this afternoon with the upper trough getting closer. Rain chances really ramp up overnight as the trough axis approaches the Mississippi River. Rain chances will decrease Sunday evening as the trough axis moves east of the area. However, large scale troughing over the Great Lakes down into the Deep South will remain.
The trend through the short term portion of the forecast will call for clearing skies and drier, warmer conditions. This high drifts slowly eastward through the remainder of the weekend.
The upper level low is located out west near the four corners region. Through this weekend, the low is expected to track towards the region passing just to the north of state around Sunday morning.
The bright side of all of this rain and thick cloud cover, our high temperatures will remain in the mid 80s to the low 90s today. We will begin to see some breaks in the clouds later Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front, so we will warm up a degree or two warmer than today.
Overall, little to no hazards are expected for the rest of today once the low clouds and fog burn off, and really through the remainder of the short term we are not expecting any hazardous weather either. An H5 closed low over the Panhandles will exit east today, and in the wake we will have 500mb height rises over the Panhandles with northwesterly flow. Sunday afternoon a few places might get into the low 80s.