Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
an upper level low pressure area was over southeast Colorado early this morning. The low is expected to slowly drift southeast today with increasing upper level heights after midnight. There may be enough moisture near the low to produce a few afternoon non severe thunderstorms south of the interstate and along Highway 27. upper level heights continue to slowly increase as the center of an upper ridge spins over southwest New Mexico. High temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 90s with low temperatures in the low to upper 60s.
625 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020 Thunderstorms across central South Dakota are continuing to weaken as they work east int capped environment with weak shear in response to weak upper level ridging lingering around the region.
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with high pressure in control. Expect VFR conditions across the Rio Grande Valley today through tonight as the 500mb ridge across west Texas and northern Mexico continues to provide subsidence across deep South Texas. /issued 341 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020/ SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): 500mb ridge centered across west Texas and northern Mexico will continue to provide subsidence across deep South Texas today through tonight before the upper level subtropical ridge shifts slightly westward Monday. This will continue to provide hot temperatures across the CWA today but slightly cooler 850mb temps Monday indicates that while highs Mon afternoon will continue to be hot. they will be at least a degree or two cooler tomorrow compared to today.
By Monday, a weak frontal boundary along with a weak upper low will stall near the I-20 corridor, resulting in another wet and unsettled day. With widespread rain and cloud cover, expect cooler temperatures with highs in the upper 80s across the region.
A severe wind threat seems unlikely this afternoon, however we might be monitoring for any enhanced effective shear layer near the highway 83 corridor that might allow for a little better storm organization/life cycle.
Weak upper low continues moving eastward towards the mid state, and with the additional moisture/diurnal assistance, scattered showers and storms can still be expected today.
Will have overall higher POPS Monday as broad mid level low pressure generally meanders eastward over the gulf coast states and positions a bit further northward.
High pressure will keep temperatures several degrees above average this week. The deeper moisture remains south of our area with just enough in place across SE AZ for a few buildups near the higher terrain near the border with Mexico.
Early afternoon temperatures are around 2 to 5 degrees warmer than yesterday, especially in the northern Sacramento Valley thanks to a northerly wind. The upper trough slowly deepening over the area will cool temperatures a few degrees and allow onshore flow to continue through midweek, though dry weather will remain.
High pressure previously centered over the southern Plains has spread eastward over the past 24 hours, effectively cutting off the influx of subtropical moisture from the south. Little changes on Monday as high pressure remains the dominant feature over the area, though a mid-level low pressure trough will be rolling ashore over the West Coast during the afternoon. Models were in good agreement moving the mid-level trough eastward over the western U.
While the low level lapse rates have been high, mid level lapse rates are not as impressive and deep layer bulk shear is around 30 kts max. Tomorrow, the weak surface boundary pushes south and very weak high pressure builds into the CWA. The high pressure will keep best thunderstorm chances mostly to the south and west of the CWA into Monday night, but much can happen in the environment.
Wind and heavy rainfall should be the main threats with fairly dry air in the lower levels and freezing levels around 13000 feet AGL. Not much turning or speed shear in the low levels however so organized wind and tornado threat pretty low.
1156 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020 Thunderstorms across central South Dakota are continuing to weaken as they work east int capped environment with weak shear in response to weak upper level ridging lingering around the region.
258 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020 Flow through the bulk of the troposphere in the local area remains quite weak with the upper ridge axis pushing north into the upper Mississippi Valley and weak and broad high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley.
340 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020 A cold front crosses early tonight accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. Lows range from the mid-upper 50s in the mtns and foothills and in the low 60s srn Nh and the coast. Highs will range from 75-80 across much of ME and the mtns of NH, and will be in the low 80s in srn NH. The resultant clear skies and light winds will allow mins to drop to the low 50s in the N /some upper 40s possible in the colder spots/, and generally 55-60 S of the mtns.
Weak upper trough over the area will promote scattered to numerous showers and t-storms.
Strong to severe storms will develop along and ahead of a cold front late this afternoon/early evening across the far south central and James River Valley.
For the upcoming work week, with the persistent and building upper level ridge over the central and southwest CONUS, each day will become progressively warmer and muggier.
123 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2020 Synoptic Overview: The Tri-State area will remain situated beneath an upper level ridge. aside from a slight amplification of the upper ridge over the Central/Southern Rockies. Expect highs a few degrees warmer than today, in the low-mid 90s.
The pattern will remain status-quo through mid-week as broad ridging remains in place. The pattern appears to change-up by late week as the upper- level ridge becomes more amplified over the Four Corners region, and broad northwest flow encompasses the Central Plains.
A larger MCV over southeastern CO will also move very slowly east- southeast then probably turn more south-southeast this evening around the northeastern periphery of the upper ridge extending west from OK. Apart, the large, weak upper low from LA to OK that has been associated with numerous showers and thunderstorms over AR, LA and eastern OK may affect southeastern OK as well.
Highs today will be slightly cooler with upper 70s to lower 80s with Monday highs in the lower to middle 80s.
Surface ridging to our north will weaken, but subtropical high pressure off the southeast coast will remain. A broad and very weak upper level trough or weakness between ridges will be roughly centered over the lower and mid Mississippi Valley during the period, with features over our area remaining amorphous.
242 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020 The Central Plains region remains on the eastern fringe of the subtropical ridge with weak ill-defined flow and cooler mid-level temperatures allowing for diurnally driven showers and storms to persist across the area.
346 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020 A cold front moving across the northern Plains will help to initiate thunderstorms across North Dakota this evening. Best chance for any locations to see thunderstorms will be across the eastern Panhandle and Pine Ridge region where slightly better instability exists. The cold front will continue to be located across North Dakota and will slowly move into northern Nebraska. Will keep the low chance pops (near 30%) for now through the end of the week. Elsewhere, temperatures remain in the low to mid 90s.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 90 71 86 71 / 20 30 30 80 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 91 70 88 71 / 20 30 20 60 30 Oak Ridge, TN 71 92 70 88 71 / 20 30 20 60 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 90 67 88 67 / 20 40 10 50 20.
1222 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020 During the day today, a 500mb ridge that is currently in place across the central CONUS will retrograde west.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): Currently a 500mb ridge centered over west Texas into northern Mexico and a mid- level weakness/trough over the central Gulf of Mexico. The mid- level ridge is expected to shift sightly west Monday and Monday night as the mid to upper level weakness over the Gulf moves towards the northern Gulf coast. The mid to upper level ridge will provide subsidence across deep south Texas through the period.
821 AM PDT Sun Jul 5 2020 High pressure to the south will continue the warming trend today and Monday.
Low temperatures will be a degree or so warmer tonight, ranging from the upper 60s to the lower 70s in parts of the metros. For Monday, much of the country is covered by H5 broad ridging. However, there is a weak kink the flow over the lower Mississippi Valley. It will be another hot and humid day with highs in the lower to mid 90s. Lows will be in the lower 70s. Forecast continues to plug along with diurnal convection peaking in the heat of the day, highs in the 90s, and lows near 70 or in the low 70s. Trends late in the forecast are for slightly cooler readings that mimic climatology in the mid 80s and mid 60s.
341 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020 A broad upper trough persists over the southeast states through the period. under the upper ridge.
It will prevent dew points from mixing out leading to slightly warmer overnight lows. With increase cloud cover in place on Monday afternoon highs will be a bit cooler across these areas in the mid to upper 90s, rather than close to 100.
The KEY sounding also observed SW winds around 5 knots in the lowest 3,000 ft, which is favorable light and parallel to the narrow island chain for cumulus cloud line development. The abundant mid-level clouds may be delaying this occurrence for now, but it would be difficult to escape the current setup without firing off some cloud line showers and thunderstorms, especially in favored places from Sugarloaf to Big Pine Keys, and over the Bayside waters near Marathon and north of the Seven Mile Bridge. Once the ridge axis move north of the Keys late tonight and Monday morning, the low-level subsidence will end, and a return of weak low-level E-SE flow will occur.
PWATS remain on the higher end with 2. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than the last week given the widespread clouds and rain.
307 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020 Another hot and humid day across the region as temperatures have warmed into the lower 90s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Expect another mild night tonight, with overnight temperatures remaining in the lower 70s. Afternoon convection will be possible across a greater area as compared to today as deeper moisture spreads northward and the higher PWATs push north of the Ohio River.
107 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2020 Mean Pac NW upper trough will continue to support active SW flow over the region, as deep moisture wavers over the area. Diurnal heating will once again lower CIN across the area this afternoon, esp over NE WY and the higher Black Hills where convective initiation is expected. The next impulse emanating from the Pac NW upper trough will push toward the region with increasing support for TS activity. Convection will also develop along the old trough axis, which will be situated across the southern third, while the main impulse will likely support more organized storms across WY, which may grow upscale into an MCS.
Monday will be notably cooler on the back side of the overnight convective systems, and temperatures will take much of the day to recover back into the mid or upper 80s.
1134 AM MDT Sun Jul 5 2020 Current surface map places weak trof across the western Dakotas. Surface trof sets up just east-southeast of the Black Hills this afternoon. Convergence along surface trof with diminishing cap will allow thunderstorms to eventually developing along the surface trof. Persistent pattern of southwest flow aloft and nearly stationary surface trof will bring several rounds of thunderstorms through the week.
Forecast Summary: Breakdown of upper ridge in the Plains will allow storm track to settle south the next several days, allowing systems a better chance to affect eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.
Surface analysis early this afternoon shows high pressure in place across the southern Great Lakes. Aloft water vapor showed a ridge in place across CO. The ridging aloft is expected to flatten out through this period. Meanwhile at the surface strong high pressure remain in place across the southeastern states.
Easterly surface winds will remain light around 5 knots and continue do little in dispersing the lower portion of the atmosphere of the haze stuck in place. This will allow the smoke to mix out of the lower levels, finally giving our area some much needed relief. The weather pattern for the next few days will be dominated by the persistent upper level ridge in place over the central CONUS. Rain chances for the first half of the week will be off and on, as the ridge in place keeps much of the region in a mostly quiet weather pattern.
231 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020 An upper level ridge of high pressure centered across the desert southwest United States will remain a persistent weather feature through much of the week for west Texas and southeast New Mexico. An upper level shear axis/trough across southwest Kansas will rotate southeast overnight around the periphery of the ridge igniting a thunderstorm complex in the Texas Panhandle. The northwesterly steering flow aloft will favor the extreme north/northeast Permian Basin with the highest precipitation chances/totals as the complex moves southeast.
119 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020 Little change in the pattern across the area overnight, with upper level and satellite obs showing ridging continuing as the main feature. This SSW-NNE orientated ridge axis extends from high pressure centered near the AZ/NM/Mex border, set up between a trough making its way through the Pac NW and another just off the East Coast. At the surface, high pressure spread from the Plains through the Great Lakes is keeping the pattern weak.
A weak upper level trough continues to sit over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico with a moist airmass in place over the Southeast. However, due to the high moisture, heat index values will peak near 100, so be sure to remain hydrated and take frequent breaks if spending prolonged time outdoors.
402 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020 A cold front will push off the coast tonight.
Surface analysis early this afternoon shows high pressure in place across the southern Great Lakes. Aloft water vapor showed a ridge in place across CO. The ridging aloft is expected to flatten out through this period. Meanwhile at the surface strong high pressure remain in place across the southeastern states. The jet stream will be displaced well to the north along the U S- Canada border much of this week with an elongated ridge encompassing much of the country from the Baja Peninsula northeast into the Great Lakes. An upper level low will track along the U S-Canadian border late this week which will force a contraction to the ridge with the center refocusing over the southern Rockies.
800 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020 Over the next 24 hours the area will be sandwiched between broad mid level troughiness and a boundary at the surface on the northern Gulf coast and stacked ridging from the Atlantic to the northern Yucatan peninsula. High pressure ridging south of the Florida Keys lifts north into the Gulf by mid week with a relaxing gradient.
/issued 341 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020/ A broad upper trough persists over the southeast states through the period. under the upper ridge.
1052 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020 A cold front will push off the coast tonight.
626 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020 The Central Plains region remains on the eastern fringe of the subtropical ridge with weak ill-defined flow and cooler mid-level temperatures allowing for diurnally driven showers and storms to persist across the area.
757 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020 A stalled, low pressure system is noted from the surface up to the mid levels on radar imagery over the general area of southeast Mississippi between Pearl River and Lamar counties.
Meanwhile, higher elevation exposed ridges and mountains will experience gusty conditions during the afternoon and night, particularly during Monday as an upper disturbance moves east across the region. Little change is expected in the overall pattern this week as large scale troughing over the NE Pacific maintains a moderate northerly wind regime across the NW CA coastal waters, with minor fluctuations as various embedded waves move overhead. Critically low RH values will continue across interior portions of NWRN CA through Monday, with poor recoveries expected within the thermal belt located across mid and upper ridge/mountain slopes. Valley winds will become light and variable tonight, but gusty conditions will be probable over exposed ridges.
The Denver Cyclone, currently, is not as pronounced as it was yesterday at this same time. Models keep flat upper ridging over Colorado overnight, then it builds back into the state by Monday afternoon. The low level winds should adhere to normal diurnal wind trends tonight and Monday. Progs of CAPE show the highest values over the mountains and foothills this evening. CAPE values are less late day Monday with the highest values over the northeast corner. For temperatures, Monday's highs look to be 1-2 C warmer than this afternoon's highs. Monday night the upper level ridge of high pressure will stretch from northern Mexico into the northern Great Plains States with an upper level trough of low pressure centered over the Western U.
For this afternoon/evening, with a trough over the east Pacific Ocean moving over the West, the Zephyr is slightly enhanced by an uptick in winds aloft. For tomorrow afternoon/evening, as the trough axis moves across northern CA/NV, red flag warnings and lake wind advisories are in effect.
1040 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020 An Atlantic ridge extends west southwestward across the Bahamas and into the Florida Straits and Cuba. Lower to mid tropospheric ridging is also a bit south of our area. The combination of day time heating, a weak trough over the south central Gulf coast and nearby Gulf of Mexico has placed a moist confluent flow across our waters. Through the overnight period, the lower level ridge is expected to slip northward a bit. This will bring the ridge axis and some lower level drier air into our area. Expect temperatures to settle downwards into the lower 80s with dew points remaining in the mid 70s. A ridge across the Florida Straits and Cuba will lift northward a bit through the overnight period.
506 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2020 Mean Pac NW upper trough will continue to support active SW flow over the region, as deep moisture wavers over the area. Diurnal heating will once again lower CIN across the area this afternoon, esp over NE WY and the higher Black Hills where convective initiation is expected. The next impulse emanating from the Pac NW upper trough will push toward the region with increasing support for TS activity. Convection will also develop along the old trough axis, which will be situated across the southern third, while the main impulse will likely support more organized storms across WY, which may grow upscale into an MCS.
740 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2020 Today is bit cooler than average.
For Monday, much of the country is covered by H5 broad ridging. However, there is a weak kink the flow over the lower Mississippi Valley. It will be another hot and humid day with highs in the lower to mid 90s. Lows will be in the lower 70s. Forecast continues to plug along with diurnal convection peaking in the heat of the day, highs in the 90s, and lows near 70 or in the low 70s. Trends late in the forecast are for slightly cooler readings that mimic climatology in the mid 80s and mid 60s.
405 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2020 Today is bit cooler than average.
There is also a possibility of severe weather in the arrowhead of Minnesota and NW Wisconsin, where the highest instability (MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg) and upper level forcing is predicted to be.
/issued 231 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020/ An upper level ridge of high pressure centered across the desert southwest United States will remain a persistent weather feature through much of the week for west Texas and southeast New Mexico. An upper level shear axis/trough across southwest Kansas will rotate southeast overnight around the periphery of the ridge igniting a thunderstorm complex in the Texas Panhandle. The northwesterly steering flow aloft will favor the extreme north/northeast Permian Basin with the highest precipitation chances/totals as the complex moves southeast.
Also increased the fog coverage in the Cumberland Valley given the precipitation coverage and cooler temperatures heading into the night. Surface ridging to our north will weaken, but subtropical high pressure off the southeast coast will remain. A broad and very weak upper level trough or weakness between ridges will be roughly centered over the lower and mid Mississippi Valley during the period, with features over our area remaining amorphous.
High pressure will keep temperatures several degrees above average this week. We're still looking at the chance of a more favorable high position with a ridge axis immediately east this weekend. If the ridge sets up a little further east though, all bets are off.
Stalled cold front is lying across these areas and could present enough lift for a strong to severe thunderstorm to get going.
634 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020 A cold front moving across the northern Plains will help to initiate thunderstorms across North Dakota this evening. Best chance for any locations to see thunderstorms will be across the eastern Panhandle and Pine Ridge region where slightly better instability exists. The cold front will continue to be located across North Dakota and will slowly move into northern Nebraska. Will keep the low chance pops (near 30%) for now through the end of the week. Elsewhere, temperatures remain in the low to mid 90s.
401 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020 We generally have weak forcing with light flow aloft and an upper ridge across the center and eastern portions of the country.
Another hot and humid day across the region as temperatures have warmed into the lower 90s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Expect another mild night tonight, with overnight temperatures remaining in the lower 70s. Afternoon convection will be possible across a greater area as compared to today as deeper moisture spreads northward and the higher PWATs push north of the Ohio River.
624 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020 We generally have weak forcing with light flow aloft and an upper ridge across the center and eastern portions of the country.
Flow through the bulk of the troposphere in the local area remains quite weak with the upper ridge axis pushing north into the upper Mississippi Valley and weak and broad high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley.
933 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020 Diurnally enhanced band of tstorms has shifted well offshore of the local Atlantic coast with now just lingering showers/isolated storms drifting ENE across SE GA near a lifting trough axis. Convergence near this next trough axis will bring the best potential for nighttime showers and isolated storms across our Suwannee River Valley zones and near the I-75 corridor.
231 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 06Z surface data has high pressure over the Great Lakes while a cold front ran from northwest Minnesota into northeast Wyoming.
1214 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 We generally have weak forcing with light flow aloft and an upper ridge across the center and eastern portions of the country. We will continue to see general upper ridging through Tuesday night, and thus will keep this period dry and warm things up into the 90s by Tuesday. Precipitation chances are trending up during this period and we could use the moisture as an upper level trough will slide east from the pacific northwest into the northern plains. Forecast models indicate the possibility of more than one system tracking through midweek beneath this upper level trough. An upper level ridge will begin to build across the desert southwest giving us northwest flow and a slight chance for continued thunderstorms as weak systems ride up and over this southwestern ridge.
244 AM MDT Mon Jul 6 2020 Current surface map places weak cold front across central Wyoming through the Black Hills into south central North Dakota. Ridge builds a bit towards the weekend, which should result in a few dry days.