Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
208 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Quick northwest flow develops over the area today as a deep upper trough slides across Saskatchewan and Manitoba. High temperatures will be warmer, with highs around 90 degrees.
Dew points will remain in the lower to middle 70s, so heat index values will reach 100-104 degrees at most locations west of our eastern Plateaus/Mountains, possibly hitting 105 briefly at HSV/DCU/MSL. Suggested blends lower our PoPs into the lower chance range which look more reasonable at this time.
An inverted trough is now the main forcing mechanism for these ongoing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in east-central Arizona. Expect coverage to gradually shift west to northwestward by early across mainly central Arizona by Tuesday morning as the trough rotates over the state. A weak ridge will remain in place across the region through at least the middle of the week. By late week, an inverted trough may set-up to our east, increasing moisture flow and bringing more favorable dynamics into the region.
The aforementioned disturbance over southeast AZ moves northward into central NM on Tuesday as a upper-level trough tracks through the central Rockies.
High temperatures are forecast in the low to mid 90s tomorrow afternoon with heat indicies potentially reaching the 100-105 degree range. High pressure over the Gulf is allowing for light surface winds and therefore little steering flow for these storms. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with dew points and low temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
Temps are in the low to mid 90s, while dewpoints are in the 70s, making for a rather hot and humid afternoon. Highs in the low to mid 90s are once again expected tomorrow and Wednesday, which in combination with dewpoints in the 70s will result in apparent temps upwards of 100 degrees.
High pressure in control today will keep things very quiet. By Wednesday, we'll see an increase in surface and mid-level moisture as a weak inverted trough approaches the coast.
425 AM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021 After a quiet evening, right entrance dynamics in the upper jet segment in advance of the sharp trough across western ND early this morning has finally spurred development of isolated very high-based convection from the James River westward. Wave which will kick the current trough out of the northern Plains by later today will settle southeast into the region by late night, pushing yet another frontal boundary southward to near I-90 by daybreak.
Latest sfc analysis shows a fairly disorganized pressure field over the local area with Bermuda high pressure well offshore and low pressure over the northern Plains states.
524 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Midlevel cloud cover as well as a few light returns on radar have prevailed overnight in response to the departing midlevel trough trekking into the Northern Plains. The gradient aloft will decrease this afternoon as the aforementioned trough exits to the northeast, though locally breezy conditions will redevelop with gusts of 25 to 30 mph possible. CAM guidance continues to hint at the development of isolated convection over the higher terrain this afternoon but little to no precipitation is expected with gusty outflow winds being the primary threat given the dry low levels. Wednesday will see high pressure begin to rebuild over the Great Basin, allowing temperatures to slowly climb across the area. As a result, expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, focused along the higher terrain of the San Juan Mountains.
Ensemble models are persistent in forecasting a large ridge of high pressure building over the West Coast this week.
852 AM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Seasonable warmth, humidity, and periodic showers and thunderstorms can be expected until cold frontal passage late this week.
Highs today and Wednesday will range from the lower 90s near the coast to around 100 near Falcon Lake. A weak mid level inverted trough is expected to develop over the western Gulf of Mexico tonight into Wednesday.
With high pressure now east of the area again, a deep southerly flow has returned to SE AZ. 8 inches in the lower deserts.
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible in the higher elevations of the Sierra Wednesday into the weekend. The heat continues over the West as the region remains under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure.
Winds will diminish quickly after sunset as surface heating and mixing is lost, and as the upper-level trough continues to move well east of the high plains. Forecast guidance indicates a gradual return to ridging over the western CONUS from Wednesday through the weekend. Southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska will remain on the eastern periphery of this ridge setup, resulting in mainly dry and light northerly flow throughout the period.
High temperatures in the low-mid 90s and overnight lows in low-mid 70s. The western portions of the FA may have higher convective coverage this afternoon due to higher atmospheric moisture and possibly a weak short wave on the western periphery of the ridge. High temperatures will be in the low 90s with lows in the low to mid 70s.
Cooler weather arrives by the end of the week. Have opted to allow the heat advisory to expire (temporarily) tonight with temps falling into the low 70s and cooler.
GOES-16 Satellite trends early this morning depict a broad 250mb upper level trough over the Southern Plains into the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valleys while a mid-level ridge remains in place across much of the Southern Untied States. Regional WSR-88D radar trends indicate some scattered showers and thunderstorms occurring over portions of Southeast Missouri on the northern periphery of the mid-level ridge axis.
The weak ridge is breaking down early this morning across the Central Plains and Mid-Mississippi Valley with the main closed upper low positioned near the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border in southern Canada.
943 AM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021 High pressure will influence the weather through late week. A cold front will approach the area this weekend. Should be another quiet night with high pressure in control. By this weekend, a weak cold front will move into the area, bringing with it an increase in rain chances.
Hot and humid conditions will persist across the forecast area today, as both high pressure aloft and at the surface remain in control of our weather. /19/ Continued warm and humid conditions will continue this week as an upper ridge builds over the region and southerly flow pumps in moisture. Dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s will combine with temperatures reach into the lower to mid 90s to produce heat indices of around 100-105 degrees most locales. Convection should diminish through the evening hours leading to muggy conditions overnight and lows in the lower to mid 70s.
High temperatures today will generally be 8 to 14 degrees warmer than yesterday. The warming trend continues on Wednesday as high temperatures will be 4 to 7 degrees warmer than Tuesday. In fact, low 100s will return to the low valleys of north-central Idaho.
Dry and breezy conditions prevail as temperatures trend warmer.
1038 AM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Currently - A surface through mid level ridge extending west southwestward across northern Florida and along the Gulf Coast, resulting in gentle to moderate easterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. Short Term Update - The ridging to our north will persist through the afternoon, maintaining gentle to moderate easterly breezes. A ridge across northern Florida will maintain gentle to moderate easterly breezes on Keys waters this afternoon.
920 AM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Temperatures are warming quickly this morning with most locations already in the low to mid 80s under sunny skies. Temperatures will continue to warm today into the upper 80s to mid 90s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. However, there is no real lifting mechanism to speak of with weak flow and broad ridging aloft.
644 AM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridging will remain in place across the area today and tonight.
628 AM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Warm and humid conditions with gradually increasing rain chance can be expected until cold frontal passage late this week. Additional convection is likely later today as the upstream trough encroaches.
643 AM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021 After a quiet evening, right entrance dynamics in the upper jet segment in advance of the sharp trough across western ND early this morning has finally spurred development of isolated very high-based convection from the James River westward. Wave which will kick the current trough out of the northern Plains by later today will settle southeast into the region by late night, pushing yet another frontal boundary southward to near I-90 by daybreak.
953 AM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Update - Strong/Severe storms still possible this week - Cooler and much drier this weekend Earlier we updated the forecasts to reflect higher waves given the incoming data.
This moisture and instability combined with daytime heating will lead to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing along the sea breeze and outflow boundaries during the afternoon with an easterly steering flow favoring the highest pops and best convective coverage setting up along and to the west of the I-75 corridor during the late afternoon and evening hours. Tranquil boating conditions will continue on the Gulf waters the remainder of today as high pressure remains in control with light east southeast winds and slight seas with an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast during the afternoon.
647 AM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021 High pressure will influence the weather through late week. A cold front will approach the area this weekend. Latest analysis shows offshore high pressure in control as upper ridge strengthens over the SE US. Should be another quiet night with high pressure in control. By this weekend, a weak cold front will move into the area, bringing with it an increase in rain chances.
341 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Dry and breezy conditions prevail as temperatures trend warmer.
An upper level ridge is building across Tennessee and so is the heat. Max heat index values will be in the 100-105 range this afternoon, except 90s for the higher elevations of the Cumberland Plateau.
1002 AM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021 A deep layer of E/ESE flow has become established this morning, per 915MHz profilers, now that the Atlantic high pressure ridge axis has lifted into northern Florida. Atlc ridge axis will continue lifting northward.
/issued 338 AM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021/ The forecast area will remain on the western end of a sub-tropical upper level ridge that will stretch eastward to the southeastern CONUS.
Hot interior temperatures will return today and continue through the rest of the work week as high pressure builds in.
Some locations across central and north central South Dakota will likely top out in the low to mid 90s this afternoon. There are a couple of cold fronts sweeping southeast through the region in the short term period. Some of the latest hi-res CAMs are hinting at the potential for a couple of brief sprinkles or perhaps a very light rain shower to pass through the region (mainly the northeast corner of SoDak/wc MN) overnight in association with that cold frontal passage. A dry, high pressure day ensues for Wednesday.
(This afternoon through Wednesday night) An upper level trough is over the northern Plains with upper ridging over Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. Temperatures today are expected to be a little cooler than yesterday.
144 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Aviation - Strong/Severe storms still possible this week - Cooler and much drier this weekend Earlier we updated the forecasts to reflect higher waves given the incoming data.
306 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Skies are mostly sunny across the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures in the low to mid 90s. High pressure is currently over southeast Georgia. This high will move north tonight while keeping the Mid-South with dry weather.
Synoptic & sfc analysis indicate persistent S-SW return flow of deep moisture across the region, while deep trough is well of to the N. 12Z upper air analysis indicates trough axis extends down into the mid-South & N MS.
Temperatures are warming quickly this morning with most locations already in the low to mid 80s under sunny skies. Temperatures will continue to warm today into the upper 80s to mid 90s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. However, there is no real lifting mechanism to speak of with weak flow and broad ridging aloft.
409 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021 High pressure will remain anchored off the Mid Atlantic coast this week, resulting in typical summer conditions.
Temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s are yielding SBCAPE values in the 3000-4000 J/Kg range. The upper level pattern features a trough to the north moving eastward across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Closer to home, broad ridging is expanding across the Southeastern U. At the surface, high pressure is centered to the northeast of the area across the southern Appalachians. Overnight lows will drop down into the low to mid 70s.
An inverted trough now crawling west through the central Gulf of Mexico will increase PWATs early Wednesday morning, with the best chance of rain Wednesday being over Gulf waters.
An elongated mid level ridge that stretches over our area will allow for another hot and humid day is in store across the area today with heat indices already well into the 90s for many across E OK and parts of NW AR.
High pressure aloft will gradually build in through the week. A warming trend will establish as onshore flow weakens pushing warmer valley highs into the lower triple digits as soon as Wednesday.
Winds will increase ahead of the cold front Wednesday then switch to the north by evening which could make it troublesome for any fires.
Beginning this evening, a cold front will drop through the state from the northwest, with a line of scattered showers possible along the frontal passage.
The cold front at 20z, as expected, is really becoming less defined, and likely dissipating. As a result, dewpoints will likely be cooler than previously expected tomorrow as winds shift to the northwest.
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible in the higher elevations of the Sierra Wednesday into the weekend. Rex Block pattern over the EPAC will break down, as weak upper low center off the NRN CA coast will retrograde under a strong area of high pressure in the NRN EPAC.
This afternoon through Wednesday night Cyclonic flow will continue over the forecast area today, as a broad trough is in place over central Canada. Winds will be lighter, as the gradient from the Canadian trough weakens.
The low clouds should mix out to VFR conditions by the afternoon. Subtropical ridge axis remains from the western Atlantic across the southeastern states to along the Red River Valley. Subsidence under the ridge and capping warm temperatures aloft will keep rain out of the forecast for most areas today through Wednesday. The exception being near the Coastal Plains to US 77 corridor where an inverted mid level trough, the seabreeze, and heating may generate a few showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon.
Rain free conditions and typical early to mid August heat across the region today as modest sub-tropical ridging sits overhead with 592 to 594 dm heights. Low clouds develop late tonight with overnight lows falling into the low to mid 70s. Not much change expected across the region for Wednesday into Wednesday night, however, the presence of a weak inverted trough moving across South Texas could help to provide the opportunity for isolated shower/storm or two across the coastal plains associated with the afternoon seabreeze.
1241 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridging will remain in place across the area today and tonight.
1205 PM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Midlevel cloud cover as well as a few light returns on radar have prevailed overnight in response to the departing midlevel trough trekking into the Northern Plains. The gradient aloft will decrease this afternoon as the aforementioned trough exits to the northeast, though locally breezy conditions will redevelop with gusts of 25 to 30 mph possible. CAM guidance continues to hint at the development of isolated convection over the higher terrain this afternoon but little to no precipitation is expected with gusty outflow winds being the primary threat given the dry low levels. Wednesday will see high pressure begin to rebuild over the Great Basin, allowing temperatures to slowly climb across the area. As a result, expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, focused along the higher terrain of the San Juan Mountains.
But given the low confidence, will not add any mention at this time. High pressure in control today will keep things very quiet. By Wednesday, we'll see an increase in surface and mid-level moisture as a weak inverted trough approaches the coast.
Expect some more fog in the morning with KTYS/KTRI having the highest chance of fog. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 92 73 93 73 / 30 30 20 50 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 92 73 93 73 / 20 40 20 50 20 Oak Ridge, TN 71 91 72 92 72 / 20 30 20 50 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 88 69 90 69 / 30 50 20 50 30.
Chambers Quick northwest flow develops over the area today as a deep upper trough slides across Saskatchewan and Manitoba. High temperatures will be warmer, with highs around 90 degrees.
Meanwhile, the latest water vapor loop was showing the upper level trof with a potential vorticity anomaly pivoting through the base of it. As this potential vorticity anomaly shifts east and northeast it should allow for the upper level trof to kick east and cause the mid and upper level flow to turn more towards the northwest over Wyoming. Wind speeds will also be on the decline as the trof shifts to the northeast. This trof will be followed by the influence of the upper level ridge in the western U.
The warming trend continues today into the weekend with high temperatures being several degrees warmer than yesterday.
136 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Seasonable warmth, humidity, and periodic showers and thunderstorms can be expected until cold frontal passage late this week.
Warmer temperatures expected today, with near normal values expected.
With the CWA remaining on the western periphery of the deep/strong ridge over the SE CONUS, the persistent onshore flow will continue tonight through tomorrow/Weds night. Of interest for coastal loca- tions (into the eastern half of the CWA) will be the likelihood of scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow/Weds with the arrival of slightly deeper moisture and a weak inverted trof (and possibly combined with the seabreeze). but we'll need to keep eyes on heat index values given the higher moisture/RHs.
Albeit the subtropical ridge remains strong over the southeastern CONUS on Wednesday, low-level Gulf moisture will gradually begin to increase on Wednesday.
Temperatures at 850mb will be slightly cooler tomorrow, so afternoon highs should mainly range from 95-99 degrees for most of the area. For tonight, expect warm and muggy conditions, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Broad upper level ridge will remain anchored over the southern CONUS the rest of the week.
226 PM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Upper air analysis shows a strong upper low across central Canada, with cyclonic flow across the Dakotas. Cooler air will filter into western SD later tonight, but. warmer air advection will overtake tomorrow morning. The next weak front will slide in Wednesday night, and this time the cooler air will stick around a little longer.
The summer time pattern continues through the period as mid to upper level ridging remains in place over much of the Southeast. On Wednesday, a surge of moisture rounds the southern periphery of the ridge causing PWAT's to increase to around 2. Lows tonight will generally be in the low to mid 70s inland and low to mid 80s along the coast. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s.
Better chances that we could see some dew points drop down into the lower 50s, or even some upper 40s across the west and north. Broad upper trough will be the prominent feature across the northern Plains throughout the remainder of the work week.
Even with clouds and some precip, the cold front should bring enough CAA to drop lows into the 50s, with a few 60s near the SD border. Northwesterly flow aloft, induced by a longwave trough moving eastward over the Canadian prairies, will be the name of the game through the end of the week and into the weekend.
The high res models seem to locking on to the storms in IA building and expanding northeast into southeast WI and eventually southwest Lower MI. The broad mid level trough sinks south Wed into Thu.
High pressure will remain in control of area weather through the period, resulting in typical summer weather. Mins tonight and Wednesday night will fall to the low to mid 70s with highs Wednesday in the lower 90s except upper 80s nearer the coast. Moist low levels will be topped by dry air aloft as mid level ridging remains in place. Piedmont trough at the surface will be the focus of isolated convection each afternoon mainly near and west of I-95. High temps in the low 90s with heat indices in the triple digits. Low temps in the low 70s.
Given the higher levels of moisture and cloud coverage, temperatures will be cooler this week. With high pressure now east of the area again, a deep southerly flow has returned to SE AZ. 8 inches in the lower deserts.
1243 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021 After a quiet evening, right entrance dynamics in the upper jet segment in advance of the sharp trough across western ND early this morning has finally spurred development of isolated very high-based convection from the James River westward. Wave which will kick the current trough out of the northern Plains by later today will settle southeast into the region by late night, pushing yet another frontal boundary southward to near I-90 by daybreak.
Expect wind gusts of 30 to 45 mph to continue through around 8pm, with winds weakening and turning northerly as a weak and dry cold front slides into the area. Another cold front is expected to arrive Wednesday night. Tomorrows cold front is expected to be dry as well. Chambers Cooler conditions and easterly winds build into the area behind the Wednesday night cold front.
242 PM PDT Tue Aug 10 2021 High pressure will build back over the region with drier and warmer weather this week.
304 PM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Weak flow aloft will prevail through Wednesday with an upper level trough off to the northeast. Could see a few high based showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain south of I-70 and over the eastern plains.
Isentropic forcing for ascent ahead of the next cold front will present a chance of scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two tonight into Wednesday morning as it scoots eastward across northern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. These fronts will usher in drier and slightly cooler air in their wake. High temperatures will be in the middle 70s in north- central Minnesota to the low 80s in northwest Wisconsin.
649 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Seasonable warmth, humidity, and periodic showers and thunderstorms can be expected until cold frontal passage late this week. If models are depicting the overall pattern correctly, this wave will weaken and be forced northward this evening as upper level height rises ensue in the wake of today's trough.
It does look like we'll be under mostly clear skies though, so if winds go calm we could see temperatures dip a few degrees cooler than currently forecast.
/issued 306 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021/ Skies are mostly sunny across the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures in the low to mid 90s. High pressure is currently over southeast Georgia. This high will move north tonight while keeping the Mid-South with dry weather.