Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS DRY ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO ERODE ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROF THAT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AND WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE AREA. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROF WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LARGE SCALE/POSITIVE TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AROUND 12Z SATURDAY.
217 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE WRN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NRN PLAINS ATTM. OVERALL SURFACE RIDGING IS BUILDING INTO MICHIGAN. WITH A LARGE AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LATEST IR SATELLITE SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS NORTH OF MINNESOTA IN THE VCNTY OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE MARKED BY THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS AND A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO THE LOW TO MID 30S NEAR THE LAKESHORES. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.
945 PM PST FRI NOV 6 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A SHIFT TO ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.
318 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS THIS WEEKEND AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS BY MORNING.
H8 front extends westward over Show Me State and strong upper jet will picks up this ahead of swift moving long wave trough over the center of the nation and push this entire system thru by this afternoon (Bluegrass region last to clear out). Clouds Increase Sunday night ahead of a upper low coming out of the southern Sunflower State.
325 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER LAKE WINNIPEG THAT SHARPENS AND PINCHES OFF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BROAD 500 MB NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AS IT DIGS SOUTHEAST. THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS REACHES LOWER MICHIGAN BY 18Z AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z. QUIET WEATHER WITH BROAD RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL U.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES THIS EVENING INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. /ISSUED 316 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015/ A COLD FRONT NOW STRETCHES FROM SAVANNAH TENNESSEE. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT.
1237 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
327 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015 THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GO BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. AFTER A COLD START TO SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. TONIGHT THE HIGH SLIDES ONTO THE EASTERN PLAINS AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NW.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 50S. OVERALL EFFECTS ON THE AREA WILL BE MINIMIZED INITIALLY WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S MOST AREAS EXCEPT UNDER CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER FLOW OFF THE LAKE. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN STORE WITH HIGHS FROM 50 TO THE LOWER 50S. STRONG/ELONGATED RIDGING BUILDING EWD FROM THE MID MS VLY INTO NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT. STILL SOME MINOR CONCERN FOR LIGHT SHRA MON NIGHT LIFTING NWD INTO ERN/SERN CWA AS WRN EXTENSION OF INITIALLY MOISTURE QUELLING RIDGE DEGENERATES. WHILE DETAILS REGARDING TIMING/TRACK OF NEWD EJECTION OF CYCLONE FROM SRN PLAINS INTO WRN GRT LKS WED INTO THU AM REMAIN MUDDLED AT BEST. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WILL BRING SOME REINFORCING LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND GOOD MIXING.
MODEL TEMPS IN EURO AND GFS CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN REALITY. TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL BE COMMON FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE LONGER TERM WITH DEPARTING TROF AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY. COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN TRAPPED IN THE VALLEYS THEREFORE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THERE AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS READINGS. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST COAST.
SHOULD ONLY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH.
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE REGION WILL FINALLY BECOME SUPPRESSED SOUTH AND EAST THIS WEEKEND AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES WITH SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U. THEN DURING SUNDAY THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHERN CENTRAL GULF. FOR TODAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ON AND EXPECT ONE LAST DAY OF NEAR RECORD WARMTH UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE HIGHEST POPS.
845 PM PST FRI NOV 6 2015 CORRECTED TO ADD MARINE DISCUSSION HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A SHIFT TO ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. ANOTHER TROUGH WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE MODELS SHOW THAT THE COMBINATION OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND AN 850 MB RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD.
318 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WILL USHER IN NOTICEABLY COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. IT WILL ALSO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE STATE BY SUNDAY. DIFFUSE SFC COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF MY SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. AS ITS EASTWARD/SOUTHWARD PUSH IS NOW BEING INHIBITED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A MORE VIGOROUS UPPER TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. A SHARP TROUGH SWEEPS DOWN FROM THE NW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES - BUT THE EFFECTS OF ENHANCED SHOWERS SHOULD NOT REACH THE COMMONWEALTH UNTIL AFTER DARK. LOW PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE OLD FRONT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT PUSH ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP UP INTO THE SE.
However, there is another disturbance riding northeast along the sagging surface cold front. Cold front now generating light showers east and now south of the Louisville area.
SOME MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THERE ARE SOME MID CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WHICH COMBINED WITH CAA BEHIND THE LATEST COLD FRONT. THOUGH A FEW CAVEATS REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT. WHILE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ARE JUST AS LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CIMARRON COUNTY IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM MANITOBA INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE COLD FRONT THAT SWEPT THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY IS SITUATED FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO SOUTHEAST TX WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO SLIDE EAST SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW SEASONAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN BRINGING OUT A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT TIME FRAME. COOLER AIR WILL SPILL ACROSS THE PLAINS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
157 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CLOUDS CONTINUE AS WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS IS ALLOWING FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO FORECAST AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
The deep-layer ridging that has kept us unseasonably warm and humid so far this November will finally begin to break down today, but not before one more high temp record is jeopardized at TLH. The ridge will be impinged upon by a strongly positively- tilted long wave trough trying to nudge toward us from the northwest. The northern part of the trough will race eastward, leaving behind a weak vort lobe from the Ohio Valley to the Central Plains. A cold front currently pushing slowly southeastward extended from eastern Tennessee to coastal Texas at 06Z.
OTHERWISE THE MAIN UPPER TROF IS STILL WELL WEST OF THE TN VALLEY. PCPN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THIS AFTN AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS THE CDFNT/UPPER TROF IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE. TONIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL END BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT A LITTLE SOONER AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 40S.
1059 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015 06Z TAF CYCLE A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS BREECHED NE NM AND IS IN ROUTE FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY. THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL PROBABLY PERSIST IN MANY PLACES TOO. MODELS BREAK THE LOW CLOUDS UP MOST PLACES TOWARD SUNSET. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT.
1019 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015 AN UPR TROF WL CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTH ACRS THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE NIGHT. EXITING THE STATE BY MIDDAY SATURDAY WITH AN UPR RIDGE THEN BUILDING OVR THE AREA. THIS EVENING THERE WL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLD SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR TROF AND INSTABILITY. AND IN THE 40S OVER THE HIGH VALLEYS.
A cold front will move down into the area overnight with the wind coming around to the NE. Said lift is occurring in advance of a cold front which will gradually turn the SE winds to E-NE (in a counter clockwise fashion) between 06Z-12Z. Noticeably cooler high temps (below normal) are expected Sat area-wide. More warming Tue with better lee trof and thermal ridging underneath strengthening SW flow aloft. An upper low is expected to pass to the n of CWFA on Wed and will push a Pacific front across the area. This will favor cooler temps and dry windy conditions (similar to yesterday). This will result in a cool morning Thur with some of the PB near freezing with only slightly warmer temps by Fri.
229 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS TODAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. THE LOWER STRATOCUMULUS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE COLDER AIR BEGINNING TO FILTER IN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SPAWN SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB VERY LITTLE AS THE THERMAL TROUGH POSITIONS OVERHEAD WITH WINDS MIXING DOWN THE COLDER AIR. EVERYWHERE ELSE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE AT LEAST BROKEN CLOUD COVER AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THIS EVENING. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS NORTH OF I-80 AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHUT DOWN PRECIPITATION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TAX UPPER TROUGH/REINFORCING FRONT IS PROJECTED ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
NAM12 & SOME OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS SHOW PRECIP MUCH MORE SCT IN NATURE.
An upper level trough is currently spreading southeast across the plains this afternoon. The trough will continue to spread southeast across the region early Saturday. Highs in the 50s will occur both Saturday and Sunday afternoons with lows in the lower to middle 30s occurring both Saturday and Sunday nights, with a freeze possible both nights. A short wave trough will spread east across the central U.
IN WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WAS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE PROGS ALSO SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE 850MB TROUGH WILL BE WEAK. MUCH COOLER/MORE FALL LIKE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ONCE THE SKY CLEAR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA TOMORROW WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. 16 A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH SATURDAY.
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT EXIT THE REGION AND COOLER.
1253 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS THIS WEEKEND AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS BY MORNING.
353 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015 EXTENSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LARGE SCALE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE BREEZY NORTH WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S WITH EVEN A COUPLE OF UPPER 30 DEGREE READINGS IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES.
322 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015 LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BUT WITH AN EXTENSION EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. OVER E IOWA/W ILLINOIS WINDS WERE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST AND TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FOR MOST AREAS.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PRODUCE TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. WITH SFC LEE SIDE TROUGHING ENSUING LATE TONIGHT. TRYING TO LIMIT WARMER T/S TO WHERE TERRAIN EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED. ONGOING LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL FURTHER BE ENHANCED BY A RIDGE TOPPING IMPULSE IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SPUR DOWNSLOPE MIXING SAT NIGHT.
312 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015 Chilly high pressure will build east across the region this weekend.
KBDE WAS STILL REPORTING SOME LIGHT SNOW SO WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN THAT AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT WE SHOULD BE DONE WITH PRECIP BY 06Z. WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED AS SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS CONTINUE.
1243 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY. WITH THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. 850HPA TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REALLY COOL OFF UNTIL LATER TODAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE IN NORTHERN WV AND THE RIDGES. UPPER TROUGH/REINFORCING FRONT IS PROJECTED ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WV Imagery indicates a broad scale upper level trough of low pressure moving eastward across the Northern Plains. Meanwhile, upper level ridging is pushing ashore into the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure extends from the Northern Rockies southeast into the Rockies of Colorado. The other focus tonight will revolve around how cold temperatures fall and the additional possibility of fog or freezing fog. Overnight lows will be a challenge as high pressure overspreads the areas sending winds calm across much of the region after about 9 UTC. A broad ridge will begin to build into the Central and Northern Plains on Saturday. Temperatures will be just around freezing early in the mornings, with highs in the 50s common through the weekend.
HOWEVER TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 30S OR WARMER SO NO SNOW REPORTED LATELY. WILL ALSO SEE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE PLAINS. TOMORROW RIDGING WILL BUILD FROM THE ROCKIES AND EXPECT A WARMING TREND.
1255 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 INCREASING MOISTURE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING CONTINUED INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE WARMER ATLANTIC WATERS AND ADJACENT EAST COAST WHERE A FEW MAY MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR STEEPING LAPSE RATES AS WEAK TROUGHING SLIPS INTO THE STATE BY SUNDAY. HELPS TAP INTO FAIRLY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF/BAY OF CAMPECHE.
345 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THEN SLIDE EAST ON SUNDAY.
ELONGATED WEAKENING EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BESIDES A FEW MID-HIGH CLOUDS.
AS THE WELL ADVERTISED COLD FRONT BEGINS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD INTO NW AL. IT'S GOING TO BE WET FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND PERIOD BEFORE THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TRANSLATES EWD INTO THE NRN/MID ATLANTIC BASIN. WITH MORNING LOWS XPCTED TO BE CLOSER TO THE 60F MARK THX IN PART TO SOME COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO CROSS NW AL THIS LATE FRI EVENING. OR MAINLY WITHIN THE SHRA ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN SOME OF THE TRAILING LIGHT RAIN/LOWER CIGS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
347 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 (Today and Tonight) As an upper trough axis passes over the forecast area today, an associated Pacific cold front will push south through the CWA. Afternoon highs will range from the mid 50s over the Big Country to the lower 60s along the Interstate 10 corridor.
IS ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE BEHIND THE MAIN UPPER LOW.
1018 PM CST WED DEC 16 2015 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR A COUPLE DAYS.
1141 PM CST WED DEC 16 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 923 PM CST WED DEC 16 2015/ A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT AREAS OF SHOWERS (SOME OF THEM HEAVY) HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AN AXIS OF VORTICITY OVER NW AL AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY SFC COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER THE MS RIVER. ALSO MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURE, SFC WIND, AND DEWPOINT FORECAST GIVEN THE CURRENT OBS AND PROGRESSION OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. IN REGARDS TO THAT COLD FRONT, IT APPEARS THAT FROPA WILL BE AROUND MIDNIGHT OVER NW AL, I-65 CORRIDOR BY 4AM, AND NE AL/FRANKLIN TN BY 6 AM. 77 OSCILLATING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 17/08Z-10Z ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN AS AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS PREVAILS AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING NW AL.
RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE WINTRY WEATHER YESTERDAY WAS POSITIONED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH A GENERAL TROUGH STILL POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. WHICH WAS KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER LEVEL MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR PUSHING BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME THURSDAY MORNING. KEPT TEMPERATURES FAIRLY COOL OVERNIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOW TO UPPER TEENS. WHICH SHOULD FALL TO THE LOWER LEVELS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
316 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 Cold front has passed well east of Illinois early this morning: however, a large area of low clouds behind the boundary is currently filtering into the area from the northwest.
BY THIS EVENING THE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA TO BRING AN END TO SNOW SHOWERS.
1130 PM CST WED DEC 16 2015 As advertised for the last couple of days, much cooler temperatures have filtered into the region behind the cold frontal boundary now located across the midsouth. Temperatures tonight will be relatively cold compared to the past week with many locations dropping into the lower to middle 20s. Thursday will start out mostly sunny, however, clouds will be on the increase as an upper level short wave begins to dig over the high plains.
PRE FRONTAL TROUGH NOW OVER THE PLATEAU WITH THE MAIN BOUNDARY NOW PUSHING INTO WESTERN MIDDLE TN. AS BNA ON WRN FRIDGES OF RAINFALL AREA. AS RIDGING INFLUENCES BUILD INTO THE REGION.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS EVENING. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE RED RIVER AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.
SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION STARTING TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOLER IS A RELATIVE TERM HOWEVER SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN TO AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MID DECEMBER.
347 AM EST THU DEC 17 2015 AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE LATER THIS MORNING AND FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO ALL RAIN WITH THE EXCEPTION TO FAR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THE CHANGE OVER MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER NOON.
COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL OHIO WITH AREA OF RAIN EXPANDING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE RIDGES EARLY EVENING BEFORE COLDER AND DRIER AIR INVADES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
LIGHT WARM FRONTAL RAIN WILL FILTER OVER THE NORTH COAST REGION OVERNIGHT.
407 AM EST THU DEC 17 2015 CURRENTLY - A SURFACE ATLANTIC HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA. RIDGING ALOFT WILL PERSIST.
A weak cold front will sink south through the area today with little fanfare aside from winds veering to the northwest and becoming a bit gusty for a few hours this afternoon, particularly across southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin. The northwest breeze will make it feel a bit cooler, though winds are expected to diminish quickly by late afternoon/early evening as the front becomes diffuse and settles south toward the Rio Grande Valley.
SOME DEEP CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO RE-DEVELOP ALONG SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE ALONG I-65 BY THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS AND EAST FROM A DESTIN TO LUVERNE AL LINE BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. DENSE FOG HAS TEMPORARILY DISSIPATED BUT WILL RE-FORM ONCE RAIN MOVES EAST AND BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PASSES. THE DENSE FOG WILL DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER FROM THE WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. DENSE FOG HAS TEMPORARILY DISSIPATED BUT WILL RE-FORM ONCE RAIN MOVES EAST AND BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PASSES. THE DENSE FOG WILL DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER FROM THE WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR THROUGH SUNRISE AND THEN VISIBILITIES IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WAS NOTED JUST TO THE WEST OF N ALABAMA. HOWEVER MUCH OF THE AREA WILL MODERATE BY A DEGREE OR TWO AND FORECAST HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.