Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
an upper level trough really looks moisture starved. In theory it may be cold enough over the highest elevation to have all snow flurries.
335 AM CDT Wed Nov 3 2021 Little in the way of appreciable weather over the next several days as the area remains under the influence of a sprawling area of high pressure over the eastern U. A return to southerly flow will nudge temperatures up a few degrees from yesterday, but still in the lower to middle 40s which is slightly below average.
High pressure remains to our north with a stationary front to our south. Meanwhile a low pressure system in eastern Texas will slide slowly southward through the day into tonight.
1035 PM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021 A deep long wave trof centered through the eastern NOAM will dominate the large scale flow regime effecting our region through Thursday. Banded rain is underway across northern OK and southern KS in response to large scale forcing via a migratory short wave trof moving through the cyclonic flow within the base of the upper trof, mid level frontogenetic forcing, and divergence aloft within the ULJ entrance region. Glass The eastern CONUS upper trof will begin to shift east on Thursday as a pattern change begins to take shape.
High pressure builds in with drier, cooler weather. Upper level troughing will exist to our west, however the area will get to endure drier and slightly cooler weather today with partly cloudy skies until the clouds roll back in by late afternoon courtesy of the aforementioned feature and a disturbance to our south. Thereafter, clouds will make a relatively mass exodus and allow temperatures to radiate down to freezing for the entire area with most locations below hovering into the 20's. The forecast period begins with the tail end of an upper level jet and the base of an upper trough swinging through the Central Appalachians with high pressure parked at the surface. High pressure will hold steady over the forecast area while a developing low develops off the Carolina coast.
447 AM EDT Wed Nov 3 2021 A weak mesoscale inverted trough lingered over Miami and the Upper Keys and produced shallow convection and clouds. The trough is progged to slowly move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today.
Rains start to come in tmrw aftn/ eve timeframe as upr lvl trof swings mid lvl moisture down into the northwest gulf region. Today was the last warm and mostly sunny day of the short term period before cloud cover increases (tonight into tomorrow morning) ahead of a cold front. Aforementioned cold front is expected to sweep south into our area tomorrow afternoon starting in SETX and into tomorrow morning exiting the lower Acadiana parishes. Forecast soundings are also drier in the lower levels and heavy rainfall / flash flooding is not expected. Rainfall totals over this period range from three quarters of an inch to a trace, with the highest amounts expected in SETX.
That being said, LNP up in Wise county VA is already reporting freezing temps, and higher elevations elsewhere are probably seeing similar values. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 52 44 53 39 58 / 20 40 20 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 41 52 36 57 / 10 30 30 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 51 38 53 35 56 / 10 20 20 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 37 50 31 55 / 0 20 30 10 10 TN.
1007 PM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021 Despite the continued cooler than normal conditions, a mostly sunny sky coupled with light winds has brought a subtly milder afternoon than yesterday. There is not expected to be ice introduction into the saturated layer nor are any model solutions showing wet bulb temps dropping below freezing coinciding with precipitation, so am not expecting any snow/ice related impacts. Thus brought lows a touch warmer for that period to account for increased cloudiness. On Thursday, upper ridging and WAA advance into the Central U.
An upper level trough axis will be east of the area by Wednesday evening with rapid drying out of the mid and upper atmosphere. Upper ridging will quickly move in with rising heights beginning on Thursday. Surface ridging will begin to ease on Thursday moving eastward with clearing skies by the afternoon. This will essentially bring us weak lee troughing each afternoon.
214 AM EDT Wed Nov 3 2021 A weak and moisture limited cold front will cross the area overnight allowing colder air to overtake the region on Wednesday.
Otherwise high pressure will remain in control, with temperatures staying below normal through the end of the work week.
A trough extends from eastern Canada into the OH valley, another trough in northwest flow was moving east across the southern Plains, and a ridge stretched from off the coast of Baja up into western Saskatchewan. At the surface, high pressure was in control over much of the region, but winds locally were from the south or southwest.
1215 AM CDT Wed Nov 3 2021 116 PM CDT Tue Nov 02 As we remain on the western side of broad upper-level troughing across the Great Lakes, no impactful weather is expected through the next 48 hours. Clearing skies, slackening winds, and a resident dry airmass will allow for the coldest night of the year thus far with lows in the 20s areawide and near freezing along the Lake Michigan shore. Continued influence from a large high pressure center will keep the area dry with more sun than clouds on Thursday.
Clouds and fog will clear through the mid-morning hours Wednesday with a warmer and mostly sunny day Wednesday. Warmer and drier for Wednesday with 700mb temperatures climbing above 0C after 18Z and even up to +3C by Wednesday evening. Ridge axis passes through CWA Thursday afternoon with increasing westerly winds as the axis passes east.
Expect dry but cooler weather for the remainder of the week. However, with weak upper-level wind pattern from the NW and dry air from high pressure over the Ohio River Valley, the chances are low that precip will venture too far inland.
/issued 609 PM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021/ Much cooler temperatures should be expected across the Mid South for the rest of the week as a front is expected to move across the region late tonight into Wednesday. Cooler and much drier will quickly move into the region and should erode the northern extent of the rainfall. Now, the bigger impact will be freezing temperatures and frost for the Mid South starting Thursday morning through the weekend. High pressure will move in and allow for pretty good radiational cooling for a few mornings.
Highs will be primarily in the upper 40s, though they could eek into the lower 50s late, if/where breaks occur earlier. If skies can clear and remain clear, many locations on the Caprock could drop to or below freezing. Given this, we have gone with lows near the freezing mark for most spots north and west of Lubbock. Further east, the stratus may hold firm much/all of the night and keep temperatures several degrees warmer. That said, we will advertise the possibility of sub- freezing temperatures through other avenues. An upper-level ridge will slide east across the southwestern CONUS Thursday, increasing heights over the region.
As the upper wave helps usher high pressure east, southwest flow over the exiting cold dome will keep some lower cloud in place for at least western areas, and some brief patchy drizzle can't be ruled out there into the mid afternoon though forecast soundings show moisture depths being quite shallow under the dry air aloft. Temps remain fairly cool today though at least some cloud lingering into the night and modest south winds should keep lows in the lower to middle 30s. Warmer conditions continue to be expected Thursday into the weekend on fairly persistent warm-air advection.
238 AM MDT Wed Nov 3 2021 08z surface analysis had high over the Midwest with developing warm front from central MT into eastern CO. Water vapour had upper ridge over the northwest CONUS moving eastward toward the northern Plains. Today through Thursday, upper/thermal ridge builds into the northern plains.
Wednesday sees weak upper level ridging build in overheard, while a light southerly flow develops at the surface. Ridging should limit the cloud cover on Wednesday as well. Wednesday night through Thursday sees the upper level ridge move more overhead.
High pressure now over IA will continue to set up southwest winds into the forecast area, resulting in the start to a warming trend that will continue through the remainder of the week. Clouds in the far east should move out of the region by mid-morning, giving the area a slightly warmer start to the day. However, the higher winds will be across eastern ND, and increased mixing as well as a sunny day will lift daytime highs into the mid to upper 40s, with lower 40s in northwest MN. This will keep overnight lows a few degrees warmer than this morning, but still in the 20s. Temperatures across eastern ND will be around 50 or into the lower 50s in the warmest areas, with upper 40s east of the Red.
Temperatures will be similar to the previous night or maybe a bit cooler to the northwest if the cloud cover clears faster than expected. Guidance has suggested that while the upper levels will dry out, moisture may linger in the lowest 1km and provide shallow cloud cover or maybe even some fog through the day. However, by the evening and nighttime hours, skies should be relatively clear and allow for cooler nighttime lows near 30.
The forecast area is generally near the inflection point of the upper trough over the Great Lakes/ eastern Canada and the upper ridge that is building over the Intermountain West and the Northern/Canadian Rockies. High clouds steaming over the southern half of the forecast area early this morning will help keep temperatures from falling much below freezing south of the Missouri River. Overall, temperatures will be cooler than normal though with highs in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees. For the later half of the week, we'll start to be under the influence the upper ridge that is expanding eastward.
1043 PM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021 An upper level low in eastern Canada continues the cyclonic flow aloft into today. Otherwise, high temperatures remain in the 40s today and lows tonight will primarily be in the low to mid-20s, with some portions of central Wisconsin dipping under 20 degrees. The broad longwave trough at 500mb covers much of the central and eastern U.
358 AM CDT Wed Nov 3 2021 An upper level ridge axis will try to nudge in from the west today and tonight as it starts to deamplify. Highs will be a touch warmer than yesterday, ranging from the lower 40s over the Turtle Mountains to the lower 50s across the southwest. Lows tonight will mainly be in the 20s, but a couple areas southwest and south central may see lows in the lower 30s.
Expect dry but cooler weather for the remainder of the week. Weakening mid-level winds and dry air from building high pressure over the Ohio River Valley, will keep shower activity focused north or near I-80.
401 AM EDT Wed Nov 3 2021 Zonal flow continues aloft over the region today with a weak surface boundary across the peninsula and high pressure to our north. For Thursday, a trough will amplify across the central part of the country, with a surface front leading to higher rain chances across the local area.
Synoptic scale mid to upper pattern across the United States includes a trough to the east and amplifying ridge to the west, putting us within a region of northwest flow aloft. We do have some weak warm air advection and some saturation occurring in the lowest levels, with limited lift and turbulent mixing in the stratus layer. The models that do advertise potential drizzle keeps it liquid for the most part, and do not see much of a risk of freezing drizzle with this scenario, as the sky cover and moisture increase should keep temps up enough to keep us from getting freezing temperatures. Dry for Thursday with short wave ridging.
Temperatures have dropped down to freezing or below in most locations this morning. If there are any locations left in the frost and freeze program then an additional freeze warning will be needed for Wednesday night as temperatures are expected to drop below freezing areawide. Temperatures will be similar on Thursday to Wednesday, just a couple degrees warmer in some spots. Highly amplified mid and upper level flow pattern with mean trof over New England and a ridge over the Plains.
The remainder of the region can expect temperatures to be considerably warmer than yesterday and persist for the rest of the week.
Darmofal There is better consensus in the medium range with an upper ridge building over the area by early in the weekend.
Meanwhile, a broad upper trough will extend across the East.
An additional inch of snowfall may accumulate along the higher terrain of the Gogebic Range. As we head into Thursday and upper level ridge begins to push in from the west bringing warmer temperatures back across the region.
1052 PM MDT Tue Nov 2 2021 A low-amplitude trough across the forecast area early this afternoon will continue to shift away from the area early tonight. In wake of this feature, a strong mid to upper-level ridge will be in place Wednesday. High temperatures on Wednesday look to be 4 to 8 degrees warmer than today in most places. Thursday will start off dry with temperatures above normal as the H5 ridge reaches its peak over the area. Gusty winds are likely along the Wind Corridor as the surface pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching trough and cold front.
345 AM EDT Wed Nov 3 2021 Broad troughing remains over central/eastern Canada which extends into Great Lakes keeps southeast Michigan under the influence of cyclonic flow through tomorrow. Persisting cold airmass offers high temperatures this afternoon in the low to mid 40s. The cold thermal trough is slow to exit to the east with the mid/upper level trough. Temperatures at 850 mb on Thursday will be very similar to today, so temperatures will also be similar or a degree or two warmer for afternoon high temperatures.
Temperatures are very marginal for freezing drizzle. In fact, the short term models keep ncntl Nebraska above freezing tonight. Once the clouds move in, the radiational cooling process will be halted and given the warm ground with soil temperatures in the lower 40s according to the Nebraska Climate Office, the cooling process could even reverse with warming occurring. This forecast is near the 50th percentile of the NBM which is cooler than the guidance blend by a few degrees.
High temperatures today will occur early this morning, with slowly falling temperatures throughout the day, as cold air advection continues behind the cold front that passed through the area. Temperatures at daybreak will range from the upper 40s across the Big Country, to the lower 50s around the I-10 corridor. Temperatures will remain nearly steady this evening, then fall into the low to mid 40s towards daybreak Thursday.
Rain chances increase from northwest to southeast late tonight into Thursday as a cold front moves through the region.
942 AM EDT Wed Nov 3 2021 Strong high pressure continues to ridge over the southeast U. Temperatures were very comfortable around sunrise this morning, but have already warmed up into the low 70's. This warming pattern will continue through the day with above average temps in the low to mid 80's expected this afternoon. High pressure over the southeast U.
Rain showers increase tonight across SE TN and SW NC associated with a low pressure system to our southeast. Clearer late tonight across the northern plateau and SW VA where additional freezing temperatures are forecast. Discussion: Troughing across the Great Lakes southward through the Ohio Valley and Southern Appalachians is resulting in colder temperatures across the region today. While not much precip is expected, we could have some light precip along the TN/NC mountains with a dusting to a few tenths of an inch of snow possible across the highest peaks generally at or above 5000 feet elevation. Temperatures will quickly drop in these clearer areas with several hours of at or below freezing temperatures forecast.
1035 AM EDT Wed Nov 3 2021 High pressure will build eastward from the Midwest through Thursday.
A ridge of high pressure will be the dominant feature over the Northern Rockies today. Plenty of high level moisture will be streaming over the ridge which will keep temperatures on the slightly cooler side. A cold front pushes through the region on Thursday bring widespread precipitation. Snow levels will be remaining relatively high for this time of year, so any snowfall will be limited to the higher terrain.
501 AM MDT Wed Nov 3 2021 08z surface analysis had high over the Midwest with developing warm front from central MT into eastern CO. Water vapour had upper ridge over the northwest CONUS moving eastward toward the northern Plains. Today through Thursday, upper/thermal ridge builds into the northern plains.
318 AM MDT Wed Nov 3 2021 An upper air ridge will bring dry and tranquil weather to the Northern Rockies through Thursday. Such low amounts are expected due to appreciable westerly winds in the 850-700 mb layer that will produce downsloping and associated drying in the lower levels.
High pressure builds over Idaho and shifts east tonight. Some of the low stratus across the Upper Plain and eastern highlands will remain place into the afternoon hours.
Have also added patchy freezing fog to the CT river valley and LEB keeps going in and out of fog. An area of clouds off shore is associated with low pressure that will remain well east of the region. This puts lows into the low 20s north and below freezing all the way to the coast. Thursday high pressure will hold over the region, with light winds.
Max temps again in the low-mid 80s. Favorable boating conditions continue today as high pressure located well to the north of our area maintains NNE to NE winds at 5-10 knots across the local waters. High astronomical tides, occurring at the same time as strong northeast winds that develop behind the cold front, could lead to coastal flooding in some locations this weekend.
340 AM PDT Wed Nov 3 2021 High pressure will build back into the region today.
With temperatures in the valleys some 5 to possibly 10 degrees cooler than other sites, there's very efficient generation of steam fog from the relatively warmer river. The forecast area is generally near the inflection point of the upper trough over the Great Lakes/ eastern Canada and the upper ridge that is building over the Intermountain West and the Northern/Canadian Rockies. High clouds steaming over the southern half of the forecast area early this morning will help keep temperatures from falling much below freezing south of the Missouri River. Overall, temperatures will be cooler than normal though with highs in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees. For the later half of the week, we'll start to be under the influence the upper ridge that is expanding eastward.
These will likely fall as snow in the higher elevations with freezing levels just off the deck this morning. Have also added patchy freezing fog to the CT river valley and LEB keeps going in and out of fog. An area of clouds off shore is associated with low pressure that will remain well east of the region. This puts lows into the low 20s north and below freezing all the way to the coast. Thursday high pressure will hold over the region, with light winds.
Highs will be primarily in the upper 40s, though they could eek into the lower 50s late, if/where breaks occur earlier. If skies can clear and remain clear, many locations on the Caprock could drop to or below freezing. Given this, we have gone with lows near the freezing mark for most spots north and west of Lubbock. Further east, the stratus may hold firm much/all of the night and keep temperatures several degrees warmer. That said, we will advertise the possibility of sub-freezing temperatures through other avenues. An upper-level ridge will slide east across the southwestern CONUS Thursday, increasing heights over the region.
/issued 401 AM EDT Wed Nov 3 2021/ Zonal flow continues aloft over the region today with a weak surface boundary across the peninsula and high pressure to our north. For Thursday, a trough will amplify across the central part of the country, with a surface front leading to higher rain chances across the local area.
Expect dry but cooler weather for the remainder of the week.
The main upper trough axis will move across the area this evening into the overnight hours and this will drive a cold front south through the area. Thursday night may still see readings drop into the mid/upper 30s along/north of the Highway 82 corridor where skies will be clear with diminishing wind.
Today Through Thursday Night Northwest flow aloft continues over Arkansas on the south side of an upper low pressure area with an upper ridge over the west coast. The upper trough will move east today as the ridge moves into the Rockies and into the Plains Thursday. Some light snow may mix with rain in the higher elevations of northwest Arkansas early this morning. As high pressure sinks south into Arkansas this afternoon there will be a southerly push to the precipitation. Cooler temperatures will continue through Thursday. Lows tonight will be in the lower 30s north to the upper 30s south, and in the lower to mid 30s Thursday night.
Quiet weather under high pressure is expected today.
601 AM CDT Wed Nov 3 2021 Little in the way of appreciable weather over the next several days as the area remains under the influence of a sprawling area of high pressure over the eastern U. A return to southerly flow will nudge temperatures up a few degrees from yesterday, but still in the lower to middle 40s which is slightly below average.
Slightly warmer than average temperatures are expected through the weekend. A little cooler today in the wake of a weather system that passed by yesterday. Otherwise, a ridge of high pressure aloft will shift over the region later today and remain through the weekend as a couple of systems skirt well north of the area.
If there are any locations left in the frost and freeze program then an additional freeze warning will be needed for Wednesday night as temperatures are expected to drop below freezing areawide. Temperatures will be similar on Thursday to Wednesday, just a couple degrees warmer in some spots. Highly amplified mid and upper level flow pattern with mean trof over New England and a ridge over the Plains.
212 PM CDT Wed Nov 3 2021 Broad upper level trough will move through the Ohio Valley through tomorrow. Embedded is a short wave trough to the south that is providing some very light showers across portions of Middle TN. This trough is brining with it the advertised colder air.
200 PM CDT Wed Nov 3 2021 200 PM CDT Wed Nov 03 Our cool spell continues in the short term, although temperatures tonight should end up a few degrees "warmer" than they were this morning thanks to an anticipated thickening stratus deck with time. Things will clear out through Thursday afternoon and overnight yielding another seasonably cool night with sub-freezing temperatures nearly area-wide.
223 PM CDT Wed Nov 3 2021 Large upper ridge still over the western US, with the trough in our east that is relatively stationary. This will provide us with some weak warm advection overnight, keeping the clouds around and allowing temperatures to stay a little warmer than they were last night. Upper level flow will be northwesterly, as the ridge in the west slowly begins to break down and sag southeast. With weak warm advection in the lower levels, we will likely see another day with a mix of clouds and sun. With increasing southerly flow in the low levels, we can start to see some gustier winds, as we begin to mix in winds from aloft. Upper ridge moves over the region and also starts to deteriorate, as a potent little wave moves in from the northwest.
Upper level troughing extends southwest through the central U. to a weak area of low pressure near Texas.
1255 PM PDT Wed Nov 3 2021 High pressure will build back into the region today.
317 PM CDT Wed Nov 3 2021 The extent of clearing tonight presents the biggest forecast problem with respect to freeze headlines and also possible fog/freezing fog development.
The timing of clouds clearing will have an impact on temps with many areas possibly dipping to near/below freezing.