Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Lingering showers through 9 to 10 PM, primarily lifting north into Iowa are possible, with mainly dry conditions are expected as weak high pressure slides west a touch.
High Pressure will continue its firm hold on the weather pattern across the Southeast as hot, dry, and increasing humidity values will be the main weather story.
Skies are mostly sunny and the KBYX radar detects isolated, light rain showers pushing into the Lower Keys. Mean layer ridging spinning over the southeastern United States will persist tonight through Sunday night, losing a bit of its southeastern flank to a weak mid-upper level trough axis pivoting south through the Bahamas.
357 PM CDT Sat May 22 2021 A Canadian cold front has dropped through the Panhandle and part of ncntl Nebraska this afternoon. It is hard to imagine all models are lifting the cold front north as a warm front Sunday; opening up a warm sector for another round of storms Sunday evening. The srn flank of a large upper low stretching from WA to California this afternoon should lift northeast and drive a strong Pacific cold front through wrn and ncntl Nebraska Sunday night.
Upper level ridging is well-established over the area this afternoon per water vapor imagery. Going into Sunday there will be a shallow backdoor cold front that tries to drop south associated with a trough passing well north of the area.
Deep layer ridging is anchored in place across eastern CONUS with the center of high pressure moving into our region. Thus leading to warmer temps, calmer winds, and near zero chances for precip. Expect overnight lows in the mid 60s with daytime highs in the low 90s. With dry air aloft expected to prevail along with weak ridging, rainfall is not expected through most of the upcoming week.
This afternoon, a prominent upper level trough was centered over the Great Basin region with a ridge over the southeast CONUS and nearly meridional flow over the High Plains. A frontal boundary was placed across eastern South Dakota, slowly pushing southeast with a high pressure center shifting eastward in its wake. This upslope flow pattern should maintain or redevelop cloud cover tonight across the region, with reduced visibilities likely in the higher elevations. Following the frontal passage of Sunday night's convective system, moderately strong flow aloft will take over as the upper low closes and tracks over the Northern Plains.
An amplified upper pattern will remain in place across the CONUS this weekend, with upper ridging over the Southeast, and an upper low centered over the Great Basin. Short-range models and the HREF would indicate southeast KS having the higher probabilities today, before a diminishing trend early this evening.
Latest water vapor imagery shows impulse rotating westward into the Interior NW from northern/central ID with a complex upper-level closed low over CA/NV extending into ID.
1245 PM CDT Sat May 22 2021 (Today and tonight) Scattered showers will gradually increase tonight into the morning as the deep moisture plume shifts westward and an upper level disturbance rounds the ridge. With abundant cloud cover, diurnal range will be somewhat limited today as highs are limited to the mid 70s to low 80s (somewhat warmer in northwest Oklahoma where some clearing may occur).
(This evening through Sunday) A weak upper level low/tropical disturbance will track north across our eastern counties late this afternoon and evening. On Sunday, A large upper level low will be located across the western CONUS, while an upper level ridge remain centered across the southeast United States. The position of the upper level ridge will result in increasing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico across the area. Highs on Sunday will range from the mid 70s to near 80 across the eastern half of the area, to the low to mid 80s across the western half of the area.
238 PM MDT Sat May 22 2021 Upper analysis shows a broad low pressure system over the western CONUS, with southerly flow over the northern plains. Cold front is just to the east of our CWA. Temperatures beneath the mostly cloudy skies are still chilly this afternoon, in the low 40s to low 50s. A greater potential for severe weather exists on Sunday, as the upper low moves over the northern Rockies with a 110 kt jet. Southerly winds will increase ahead of the low Sunday morning, advecting in warmer, moist air, with dew points in the 50s to lower 60s.
140 PM MST Sat May 22 2021 A slow-moving low pressure system over the region will eject northeast over the next couple days allowing temperatures to rebound back to near the seasonal normal. Perhaps the most unusual aspect to this weather system is the depth and magnitude of cooler air surging into the region. The aforementioned low pressure system will begin filling and ejecting northeastward Sunday with H5 height rises on the order of 10-15dm. This will result in much weaker winds and temperatures 5F- 10F warmer than today, albeit with readings still lagging several degrees below normal.
128 PM EDT Sat May 22 2021 A large area of high pressure over the Tennessee Valley will drift southwest over the southern Mississippi Valley Sunday.
A large, deep upper trough across the West will slowly move northeast through the weekend. Meanwhile, a weak trough over the western Gulf of Mexico will lift into Texas during the same time. The western trough will keep southwesterly flow aloft across our region while the Gulf system keeps rich, low level moisture in place. Convection will initiate over the next couple of hours off the higher terrain and move east.
Areas of MVFR cigs/vsbys with higher terrain obscured will clear to VFR by mid-afternoon Saturday, except over the coastal waters, where the lower conditions will persist. The lower conditions will spread back onshore Saturday evening and Saturday night, persisting into Sunday morning. High pressure offshore and low pressure inland will persist through the weekend.
130 PM EDT Sat May 22 2021 A ridge of high pressure will remain across the region into the first half of the week leading to dry conditions and hot temperatures.
The high water in the westernmost portion of the Coastal Flood Warning is a combination of tides and water coming down the Amite River basin, so that will be the problem area that will continue to see high water longest since the east winds are persisting and there are no westerly winds forecast to push water out. The good news is there is no rain forecast and winds will be ramping down the next couple days as high pressure builds in from the east.
Similar today, QPF amounts will stay on the lower end, generally less than a tenth of an inch.
A large upper level low continues to spin over the western US bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the region.
129 PM PDT Sat May 22 2021 An extensive low pressure system still covers the western states today, bringing cool weather and a slight chance of showers over the San Bernardino Mountains this afternoon.
A large low pressure system will circulate over our region today with unseasonably cool temperatures, scattered snow showers in the high elevations, and isolated showers and thunderstorms elsewhere.
842 AM PDT Sat May 22 2021 An area of low pressure will impact the region through the weekend.
1017 AM PDT Sat May 22 2021 An area of low pressure will impact the region through the weekend.
There's not much to say about tonight other than it'll be mild, with morning lows in the lower 60s for most spots (with a few upper 50s sprinkled in across portions of NE AL/Srn Middle TN.
Temperatures are in the lower 80s and will continue to climb to near 90 degrees in some spots, but most locations will remain below 90. With the center of high pressure situated closer to the area, winds are noticeably lower today now that the pressure gradient has lessened. 1000-850mb thicknesses will continue to rise indicating potential for even warmer temperatures.
919 AM PDT Sat May 22 2021 An extensive low pressure system still covers the western states today, bringing cool weather and a slight chance of showers over the mountains this afternoon.
Areas of MVFR cigs/vsbys with higher terrain obscured will clear to VFR by mid-afternoon, except over the coastal waters, where the lower conditions will persist. The lower conditions will spread back onshore this evening and overnight, persisting into Sunday morning. High pressure offshore and low pressure inland will persist through the weekend.
249 PM EDT Sat May 22 2021 A ridge of high pressure will remain across the region into the first half of the week leading to dry conditions and hot temperatures.
202 PM CDT Sat May 22 2021 The area continues to be sandwiched between upper level high pressure to the SE and low pressure well to the west. Temperatures this afternoon range from the upper 60s NW to the low 80s SE. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 60s with highs Sunday ranging from the upper 70s W to the mid 80s E.
Some high clouds have advected southward across the area around the northern flank of the upper ridge, while llv fair wx cu has developed as well. Sunday, much the same as today albeit with further suppression of the ridge given a deeper northern stream upper trough digging across eastern Canada, driving a cold front into the northeast CONUS which could cast some additional mid/high clouds southward along the mean flow. Highs on Sunday should be around a degree warmer than that of today, yet once again with sub 90 heat indices, all amidst light nwly flow.
The slowly sagging cold front is now over our far eastern and southeastern counties, with winds shifted our of the north and northwest behind the front. The low to mid clouds have been the theme over our area, with more cu development east of the cold front. Will continue to monitor the potential for evening showers before introducing fog, given the low confidence and low impact. The cold front sagging through our southeastern counties will return as a warm front, with winds again shifting out of the west and southeast through the day.
Radar shows some thunderstorm activity moving northward through Wyoming along a warm front boundary but airmass is more stable north of the front so initial push of this activity into southern Montana will be pretty weak. Temperatures on Sunday will be in the lower 60s most areas with a few 70s over eastern Montana. The movement of the upper low becomes more easterly as it reaches southern Canada which brings a front across the area by afternoon.
A large, broad area of high pressure is anchored just east of the region this morning, centered over the southern Appalachians.
Cold front is still orientated from southeast ND across into north central MN with very slow progression southeast. Look for increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms today along a stalled cold front. Additional thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast for Sunday as an upper low approaches the region. High temperatures for Sunday range from the low 60s to the upper 70s.
1225 PM CDT Sat May 22 2021 A weak upper level low/tropical disturbance is currently located near New Braunfels. Farther west, highs will top out in the lower 80s, where afternoon sunshine will be more prevalent.
With that, expecting dry conditions through the overnight and into Sunday, as persistent mid/upper level high pressure over the Mid-South stretches southward towards the Florida peninsula. Morning lows will be a bit cooler from previous days, in the low to mid-60s, except for upper 60s along the coast. The dominant upper ridge across the southeast early in the week will advance seaward on Tue and then weaken further through midweek.
301 PM EDT Sat May 22 2021 High pressure is ridging across the area from the NE at the surface with upper ridging to the NW.
140 PM EDT Sat May 22 2021 High pressure shifts east, allowing for thicker cloud cover. Showers and a few storms possible across the north as the high shifts farther west Sunday. Broad high pressure at the surface and aloft will shift slowly southwest, allowing an H500 short wave trough to drop south southeast across our northeast quadrant of our CWA tonight. High on Sunday will climb into the upper 80s, reaching 90 at some spots across the lowlands, ranging to the mid 60s highest elevations.
331 PM EDT Sat May 22 2021 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Thunderstorms with locally heavy rain possible Sun - Organized storms possible later Tue into Tue night - Steadier rain for the end of the week? - Thunderstorms with locally heavy rain possible Sun A back door cold front will be dropping south southwest through the CWA mainly Sunday afternoon and evening.
A strong, broad area of low pressure has continued to dominate the weather across northern Arizona today with gusty southwest winds and critical fire weather conditions. The base of the trough is rotating through the area this afternoon helping to keep the pressure gradient tightened especially across eastern Arizona. As expected, the highest wind speeds have been in this area where gusts between 50-60 mph have been reported. A very dry airmass in place, clear skies, and weakening winds will result in freezing temperatures across much of the high country overnight into Sunday morning. Area gardeners especially across the high country will want to continue to take precautions by covering sensitive vegetation or bringing it inside.
Moderate strong easterly winds have persisted today thanks to a deep area of low pressure over eastern Oregon and a ridge of high pressure situated over north-central Montana. A mid-level circulation will form under the large-scale upper trough over the western US, somewhere between West Yellowstone and Lemhi County by daybreak Sunday.
Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery and upper air analysis shows a very amplified pattern over the CONUS, with a deep trough in the west and a ridge in the east. In response, a weak surface cyclone in eastern CO will deepen slightly, maintaining south to southeast winds over southwest KS that will continue to advect warm, moist air poleward. Overnight lows will stay slightly above average in the low 60s as at least modest winds and cloudy skies inhibit appreciable radiational cooling. Sunday will see similar conditions as Saturday, with mostly cloudy skies, south to southeast winds, and afternoon highs in the low 80s. This will introduce a more westerly component to the mid/upper level winds over the central plains, and therefore a greater probability of thunderstorms forming over the higher terrain in eastern CO making it into western KS.
The upper level pattern continues to be dominated by a large ridge of high pressure over the eastern half of the United States with a large upper low over the western CONUS. Convection is mainly confined to areas sandwiched between the upper low and upper high, or through the Great Plains region. The aforementioned ridge of high pressure will continue to heavily influence our weather over the next several days.
Have kept temperatures a couple of degrees cooler on Sunday due to the increased cloud cover and better chance of rain.
The forecast area does remain under cyclonic flow aloft as an unseasonably deep closed upper low is centered over the Great Basin. Quieter weather will start on Sunday as the upper low drifts northward and eventually phases in with the westerlies.
320 PM CDT Sat May 22 2021 Synopsis: A large upper trough continues to spin over the western CONUS while a large upper ridge remains over the eastern US. At the surface, low pressure continues to extend near the Four Corners region while a quasi-stationary cold front extends northeastward into northwestern Neb. Much more active weather will be well to our west across eastern CO/WY and into western Nebraska in closer proximity to the western trough. Risk for strong to severe storms will shift a bit east on Sunday as the upper trough moves northeast toward MT by tomorrow evening. This will send an impulse into the High Plains but the best low/mid level lapse rates will remain to our west.
A large high pressure ridge continues to sit over the area and will provide dry and mild conditions through tonight and tomorrow. Some high clouds have advected southward across the area around the northern flank of the upper ridge, while llv fair wx cu has developed as well. Sunday, much the same as today albeit with further suppression of the ridge given a deeper northern stream upper trough digging across eastern Canada, driving a cold front into the northeast CONUS which could cast some additional mid/high clouds southward along the mean flow. Highs on Sunday should be around a degree warmer than that of today, yet once again with sub 90 heat indices, all amidst light nwly flow.
Scattered showers are expected to develop late tonight, with more robust coverage of showers and thunderstorms mid day into the afternoon as the cold front arrives from the northeast.
A ridge of high pressure extending from surface to aloft continues to maintain rather quiet conditions across the area this evening. Only scattered high clouds, rotating anticyclonically around the ridge, showed up on IR imagery this evening.
Synopsis: A large upper trough continues to spin over the western CONUS while a large upper ridge remains over the eastern US. At the surface, low pressure continues to extend near the Four Corners region while a quasi-stationary cold front extends northeastward into northwestern Neb. Much more active weather will be well to our west across eastern CO/WY and into western Nebraska in closer proximity to the western trough. Risk for strong to severe storms will shift a bit east on Sunday as the upper trough moves northeast toward MT by tomorrow evening. This will send an impulse into the High Plains but the best low/mid level lapse rates will remain to our west.
820 PM EDT Sat May 22 2021 Strong omega-block ridge will remain as dominating feature thru the fcst period. Main focus is of course on the abnormally warm temps as we should moderate even higher for Sunday afternoon as most of the area looks to reach the low 90s.
Warm road temperatures have minimized the threat for accumulating snow at the highest peaks of the San Juan Mountains this afternoon, and this trend is expected to continue into the overnight hours as shower coverage gradually diminishes down south. This downward trend of shower activity will occur from southwest to northeast as a dry slot settles over the region as the broad area of low pressure lifts northward. As the previous forecaster mentioned, critical fire weather conditions look to spread across a good portion of the lower elevations during the afternoon hours. High temperatures on Sunday will run 7 to 14 degrees cooler in the wake of the low with another round of below normal readings expected Sunday night.
An upper low continues to spin over far Eastern Oregon this evening, providing enough energy for showers over Klamath, Lake, and Modoc Counties. Tomorrow will feature a warming trend everywhere in the forecast area as high pressure moves overhead from the west.
924 PM EDT Sat May 22 2021 High pressure will continue to dominate across the region tonight. Expect temperatures in the lower to mid 60s tonight. Deep layer ridging is anchored in place across eastern CONUS with the center of high pressure moving into our region. Thus leading to warmer temps, calmer winds, and near zero chances for precip. Expect overnight lows in the mid 60s with daytime highs in the low 90s. With dry air aloft expected to prevail along with weak ridging, rainfall is not expected through most of the upcoming week.
632 PM CDT Sat May 22 2021 The area continues to be sandwiched between upper level high pressure to the SE and low pressure well to the west. Temperatures this afternoon range from the upper 60s NW to the low 80s SE. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 60s with highs Sunday ranging from the upper 70s W to the mid 80s E.
731 PM EDT Sat May 22 2021 Aviation - Thunderstorms with locally heavy rain possible Sun - Organized storms possible later Tue into Tue night - Steadier rain for the end of the week? - Thunderstorms with locally heavy rain possible Sun A back door cold front will be dropping south southwest through the CWA mainly Sunday afternoon and evening.
A slow-moving low pressure system over the region will eject northeast over the next couple days allowing temperatures to rebound back to near the seasonal normal. Perhaps the most unusual aspect to this weather system is the depth and magnitude of cooler air surging into the region. The aforementioned low pressure system will begin filling and ejecting northeastward Sunday with H5 height rises on the order of 10-15dm. This will result in much weaker winds and temperatures 5F- 10F warmer than today, albeit with readings still lagging several degrees below normal.
852 PM EDT Sat May 22 2021 A large area of high pressure over the Tennessee Valley will drift southwest over the southern Mississippi Valley Sunday.
Thereafter, winds gradually lessen as high pressure responsible for elevated winds for much of the past week gradually sinks south over the area allowing the gradient to relax.
Otherwise, nighttime microphysics shows some strato- cu, associated with the showers, moving into the Upper and Middle Keys, while mostly clear across the Lower Keys. High pressure across the southeast U.
Will maintain a low pop for a shower later tonight and then low pops for shower or a t-storm Sunday as warm front lifts north. A cold front has pushed south and is no over west central MN up o near Bemidji. Effective shear is around 30-35kt as well immediately along the frontal zone, but in absence of stronger forcing activity may struggle to organize under mid level ridging. There is a signal a warm front to lift northward and additional clearing may reinforcing daytime heating within RRV may support pockets of instability could still support a a few showers or weaker thunderstorms as this front lifts northward. Main mid level trough axis should be west, but there is enough forcing to support at least showers and storms within the cluster holding together as it moves east overnight Sunday.
Onshore breezes will keep coastal areas much cooler.
Afternoon temperatures will be warming esp interior with highs reaching the upper 80s to near 90 well inland and holding in the lower 80s along the immediate coast (beaches). VFR conditions prevailing, as high pressure remains over the local area.
615 PM CDT Sat May 22 2021 (This evening through Sunday) A weak upper level low/tropical disturbance will track north across our eastern counties late this afternoon and evening. On Sunday, A large upper level low will be located across the western CONUS, while an upper level ridge remain centered across the southeast United States. The position of the upper level ridge will result in increasing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico across the area. Highs on Sunday will range from the mid 70s to near 80 across the eastern half of the area, to the low to mid 80s across the western half of the area.
Although we are initially cooling quicker than what we had in the grids, I am hesitant to lower the mins too much due to the high cloudiness moving across. Nonetheless, I did lower the low temperatures a tad for the overnight hours. Temperatures are in the lower 80s and will continue to climb to near 90 degrees in some spots, but most locations will remain below 90. With the center of high pressure situated closer to the area, winds are noticeably lower today now that the pressure gradient has lessened. 1000-850mb thicknesses will continue to rise indicating potential for even warmer temperatures.
729 PM EDT Sat May 22 2021 A large area of high pressure over the Tennessee Valley will drift southwest over the southern Mississippi Valley Sunday.
611 PM CDT Sat May 22 2021 A Canadian cold front has dropped through the Panhandle and part of ncntl Nebraska this afternoon. It is hard to imagine all models are lifting the cold front north as a warm front Sunday; opening up a warm sector for another round of storms Sunday evening. The srn flank of a large upper low stretching from WA to California this afternoon should lift northeast and drive a strong Pacific cold front through wrn and ncntl Nebraska Sunday night.