Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Thus, with clear skies in place, expect overnight lows to once again fall into the low to mid 40s with the aid of efficient radational cooling. By Monday night, should see upper level ridging over the Rockies begin to push eastward across the central CONUS.
This smoke should get pushed to our south when a dry cold front moves through tomorrow afternoon. -Bernhart PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Upper ridge over the Pacific Northwest will spread east over the next few days bringing warmer temperatures to the region. This will be short lived as a Pacific low moves onshore and suppresses the ridge.
lows overnight should be a couple degrees warmer than they were to start the day today in this weak downslope flow. expect the upper level low visible in satellite across Iowa this afternoon to gradually shift east and into the Great Lakes region over the coming days. with high pressure building aloft across the local area.
1103 AM MDT Sun Sep 11 2022 Mean upper ridging will persist through Wed, with a transition to semi-active SW flow the remainder of the week. The only weather feature to speak of the next couple days is a backdoor cool front that will slide into the region Monday night and support slightly cooler conds Tues (mainly across the northern half) before another round of WAA Wed. Semi-active SW flow aloft coupled with monsoon moisture (and the remnants of Kay) will support rain chances once again the later half of the week as a series of impulses cross the region, in addition to slightly cooler but seasonal temps.
There should be a bit more mixing than last night and a higher starting point thanks to warmer highs. South to southeasterly winds will pick up a bit tomorrow as a trough moves into western ND.
1126 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 (Today through Monday night) 08z WV satellite shows an upper trough digging over MN/IA/MO and northwesterly flow aloft over the Panhandles. Disturbance in this flow aloft and low level saturation in the wake of our recent cold front have combined to generate some light showers with a couple rumbles of thunder overnight. Monday, the transient upper ridge that had been progged to slide overhead has trended weaker over the last few model runs.
Some of the normally cooler locations will likely see lows in the 40s by tomorrow morning. Mid level heights begin to rise tomorrow and through the rest of the week along with high pressure remaining nearby at surface keeping drier air in place through much of the work week. Many locations will see highs in the 90s for much of the week as the upper ridge doesn't budge. The upper ridge may shift far enough south and west to allow for a weak boundary to approach the area this weekend and bring potential for a few isolated showers at best.
400 PM EDT Sun Sep 11 2022 An upper level low will continue to deepen to the west of the area tonight, pushing a cold front across the area into tomorrow.
Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis at 1715Z indicates and upper level ridge is located over the Great Basin, with a strong cut-off low over the Midwest. Short range guidance is in agreement suggesting these features will move slowly east through the period while the ridge dampens.
19Z water vapor imagery showed a closed low over the upper MS river valley with upper level ridging from the southern to the northern Rockies. Surface obs showed a high pressure system centered over western KS which is responsible for the fall like airmass today. Surface ridging is progged to weaken as it passes south of the central plains.
417 PM EDT Sun Sep 11 2022 RAP analysis and GOES 16 water vapor imagery highlights broad troughing extending south out of Hudson Bay into the Central Plains. Highs so far have only reached the low to mid 60s. The low S of the forecast area - that is the primary focus to start off this forecast period, with the question lingering of how far N and W the precip shield will get. In other words, expect gradients for both the precip and temps tonight, dry and cool in the W, not-so-dry and warmer in the E, the former temps-wise due to radiational cooling while the latter temps-wise will be due to moderation.
1217 PM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 (Today and tonight) With the cold front through northern Texas, northerly winds and cold air advection at the surface will continue through Sunday. Morning and nighttime lows will range from the low 50s across northern Oklahoma to the low 60s in southern Oklahoma and western north Texas.
1149 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 (The rest of today and tonight) The back edge of the dense low cloudiness behind last night's cold front is slowly making southward progress across the area, with eastern Oklahoma likely to see faster clearing than points adjacent in western Arkansas. With the drier air, clearing skies and light to near calm winds expected with surface ridging overhead, it will be a chilly start to the work week Monday morning. The typical cooler valley locations are likely to drop into the 40s, with 50s elsewhere.
258 PM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 Highlights: 1) Nice and seasonal normal highs on Monday 2) Warmer for rest of week (back into 90s) The low pressure system that moved through yesterday is now over the Mississippi River Valley. Meanwhile a ridge off to the west will build back in to the Plains.
Upper low pressure is still over far eastern Iowa this afternoon. the upper low will slowly shift to the east and as it does, a short wave will wrap around the backside and through eastern Iowa. Have very low chance for light rain east of Waterloo but with luster forcing and a lack of moisture in the lowest 12 kft, the potential of rain is minimal at best. Elsewhere, where skies remain clear across western Iowa, low temperatures are the forecast challenge, especially through Nishnabotna Valley and some of the lower elevations into northwest Iowa. Lows in the low 50s will be more common under the mid-level cloud cover east. A warming trend will occur early this week as the upper low departs to the east and the upper ridge progresses eastward.
As the aforementioned system moves eastward, a cold front at the surface will dive southeastward, pushing through the local area late tonight and Monday. After its passage, a much drier and slightly cooler air mass will begin filtering into our region. Through this evening, PoPs will gradually increase by the mid to late afternoon hours as moisture values increase out ahead of the approaching cold front. With the front pushing through the area on Monday, highs will range from the low 80s over our northwestern counties to the mid to upper 80s elsewhere.
Today through Monday High pressure will dominate the forecast today and tomorrow. The ridge will continue to build this morning. This will help to push the dense, cooler air out, and resultant highs this afternoon will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s across the basins. Monday, the ridge continue to intensify, increasing 700mb temps to +12 to +14C. Otherwise, the ridging will keep clear skies and light winds (<15 mph) over the region through Monday afternoon.
(This afternoon through Monday night) Underneath nw mid-level flow aloft the cold front has pushed into the Trans Pecos where the best SB instability is found this afternoon. A quick warm up will occur Mon as signaled by MSLP falls and low-level thermal ridging with highs close to normal.
149 PM MDT Sun Sep 11 2022 Latest satellite and upper air analysis show dry air moving in behind the exiting closed low. To the west a stout upper level ridge was slowly building eastward. Rounding the ridge was smoke from the various wildfires in the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures will gradually warm as the cooler air mass accompanying the closed low continues to move eastward. Given the slow movement of closed lows, decided to slightly cool highs for Monday.
The upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico continues to bleed northeast into the Appalachians. Meanwhile, water vapor imagery highlights a northern-stream trough sliding into the Mississippi River Valley. Mean layer ridging will take back some real estate across the Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days. As for steering flow and moisture, through the next few days steering will be light and northeast at times, favoring convective cloud lines along the Lower Keys, followed by storms rolling off the Mainland.
1213 PM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 (Today through Monday afternoon) An upper level trough is centered over the Upper Midwest with a cold front currently pushing through West Texas. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are developing and moving across portions of the Permian Basin and Southeast New Mexico in response to the cold front. The cold front will continue pushing through the area today with high temperatures generally ranging from the 70s across Southeast New Mexico, much of the Permian Basin, and most of the mountainous terrain to the 90s along the Rio Grande. Upper ridging will build over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico on Monday.
259 PM MDT Sun Sep 11 2022 Widespread high pressure continues to dominate much of the region, from the Pacific Northwest through the Great Plains, as it continues to push the frontal boundary further eastward towards the east coast.
(Tonight through Monday night) A southward moving cold front along with daytime heating and a weak mid-level disturbance has produced some isolated convection from the southern Edwards Plateau southward into the Rio Grande plains. With mostly clear skies in store overnight and some drier air filtering in from the north, we will see lows drop into the low/mid 60s in the Hill Country to the lower 70s along the Rio Grande. Overnight lows Monday night will fall into the lower 60s across the Hill Country and favored cool spots along the I-35 corridor near Austin.
Drier and cooler air moving in post-front during Monday. Discussion: A large low pressure system near Lake Michigan will remain nearly stationary overnight then drift northeast. This system will pull a cold front through our area tonight. Hi-res CAMS also show very little stronger convection (and coverage is not that extensive overall either), so will have no more than slight chance of thunder overnight to go with the high chance/likely PoPs. Cooler and drier airmass behind a cold front with end of showers by Monday evening.
(This evening through Monday Night) A weak surface cold front continues to linger near the coast this afternoon, with dry air advection in its wake as well as efficient daytime mixing dropping dew point values into the mid-60s at most locations this afternoon. Continued CAA will provide some additional relief in the form of lower temperatures on Monday night, with inland lows in the 60s to near 70 and coastal lows in the low to mid 70s.
Additional showers or possibly even a storm will be possible ahead of the advancing cold front this afternoon into the evening. Tonight the cold front will sweep through the area setting up a string of dry and slightly below normal days as high pressure lingers over the area.
Once this front moves through the area tonight, the next 7 days look spectacular for September! (Today through Monday) Our eyes are back to the northwest waiting for the much anticipated cold front to move through our area today. More showers and storms will develop this afternoon ahead of the cold front. Afternoon mlCAPE values will be around 1000 J/kg, but shear will be on the low side with effective bulk shear around 15-20 kts this afternoon. Showers will shut off from west to east after 00z tonight with cooler and drier air filtering into the area from the northwest.
/NEW/ /Through Monday night/ Breezy and pleasant conditions continue this afternoon in the wake of this morning's cold front. Afternoon temperatures will stay in the low/mid 80s across North Texas and upper 80s to near 90 degrees across Central Texas.
211 PM MDT Sun Sep 11 2022 High pressure will continue to prevail over the region into Monday. Unfortunately, westerly flow under the ridge will allow wildfire smoke to invade our CWA again. We do have a weak disturbance aloft rounding the upper ridge late Monday. This will pull down some cooler air from Canada into eastern Montana Monday evening.
305 PM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 Today and tomorrow: An upper trough that has brought moisture into the region over previous days will begin to exit the ArkLaMiss area over the short term period. Overnight, a surface front will begin to push into the northwest as the upper trough axis lifts towards the eastern CONUS.
Smoke will continue through at least Monday in our CWA as an upper ridge passes overhead today and is still in eastern Idaho Monday.
352 PM EDT Sun Sep 11 2022 Showers and some thunderstorms will move across the area ahead of a cold front that will move through tonight.
1213 PM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 (Today and tonight) Cooler temperatures extend from the upper plain states south into Oklahoma this morning. This is the first true cold front as current temps are in the 40s in the Dakota's with 50s across Kansas into Oklahoma. The cold front is approaching northeast Texas and northwest Louisiana this am.
High pressure parked overhead has valleys under light winds and mountain locales seeing a few terrain driven gusts that will sit down after dark. A narrow band of moisture advecting in from the tropical remnants of Kay has allowed a storm or two to develop over the San Juans amongst a very localized cumulus field anchored to the higher terrain there. A few mountain valleys will see localized pockets of freezing temperatures, but a widespread freeze is not expected at this time. Any showers or storms that manage to form will do so upon the higher terrain during afternoon heating. Storms that do form will remain anchored to their points of origin and dissipate as they drift over the valleys, riding the light steering flow still in place under the retreating ridge of high pressure.
409 PM EDT Sun Sep 11 2022 RAP analysis and GOES 16 water vapor imagery highlights broad troughing extending south out of Hudson Bay into the Central Plains. Highs so far have only reached the low to mid 60s. The low S of the forecast area - that is the primary focus to start off this forecast period, with the question lingering of how far N and W the precip shield will get. In other words, expect gradients for both the precip and temps tonight, dry and cool in the W, not-so-dry and warmer in the E, the former temps-wise due to radiational cooling while the latter temps-wise will be due to moderation.
/Issued 1253 PM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022/ /Through Monday night/ Breezy and pleasant conditions continue this afternoon in the wake of this morning's cold front. Afternoon temperatures will stay in the low/mid 80s across North Texas and upper 80s to near 90 degrees across Central Texas.
This activity will linger into the evening hours supported by a weak mid level short wave trough. Mid level drying and subsidence will move into the area behind the weak short wave trough on Monday as the upper level ridge remains over the southern Rockies into northern Mexico for the short term period.
In the coming hours, it will continue pushing southeast through the Lower Ohio Valley. Tonight, as rain showers end, northwest to west flow will bring in cooler temperatures. With skies clearing from west to east, lows will drop into the low 50s across southern Indiana and slowly warm to the mid 50s along the eastern Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions. Highs will reach into the low to mid 70s for most. Parts of Jefferson County, Indiana may not get warmer than the upper 60s.
Temperatures will cool into the low 50s to upper 40s tonight under a mostly clear sky and cold air advection. Temperatures will begin to warm under the influence of insolation and modest warm air advection from the low-level ridge, but remain below normal for another day. MRM A mid-level ridge will move into central CONUS during the first half of the work week and strengthen through the remainder of the period. Conditions under the ridge will be largely dry through the end of the work week in the absence of significant lift. Confidence is low at this point regarding what impacts will be felt if the trough manages to move through the mid- Mississippi River Valley.
Former Tropical Storm Key is now a closed off upper level low off the coast of southern California. We will see a few short waves spin off of this upper level low today as moisture builds north. The upper level low will become an open wave tomorrow and that will continue to push moisture north and will keep shower chances in the forecast.
-Stalley Previous Discussion: /Through Monday night/ Breezy and pleasant conditions continue this afternoon in the wake of this morning's cold front. Afternoon temperatures will stay in the low/mid 80s across North Texas and upper 80s to near 90 degrees across Central Texas.
559 PM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 (This evening through Monday) Pleasant, early Autumn-like weather is ongoing across the Southern Plains in the wake of yesterday's cold front. The lowest temperatures are expected across north central Oklahoma (in closest proximity to the ridge). Temperatures across the west/southwest may quickly cool-down after sunset and the become steady-state later tonight as winds increase from the south as the ridge moves to the east.
Temperatures will cool into the low 50s to upper 40s tonight under a mostly clear sky and cold air advection. Temperatures will begin to warm under the influence of insolation and modest warm air advection from the low-level ridge, but remain below normal for another day. MRM A mid-level ridge will move into central CONUS during the first half of the work week and strengthen through the remainder of the period. Conditions under the ridge will be largely dry through the end of the work week in the absence of significant lift. Confidence is low at this point regarding what impacts will be felt if the trough manages to move through the mid- Mississippi River Valley. Cooler temperatures will allow some steam fog to build over rivers late tonight into the morning hours.
Have updated the POPs over the coastal waters for the next few hours as a line of storms moves through, with light winds continuing for the next couple of days as the boundary to the NW lingers and weak ridging remains.
613 PM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 (Tonight through Monday night) A southward moving cold front along with daytime heating and a weak mid-level disturbance has produced some isolated convection from the southern Edwards Plateau southward into the Rio Grande plains. With mostly clear skies in store overnight and some drier air filtering in from the north, we will see lows drop into the low/mid 60s in the Hill Country to the lower 70s along the Rio Grande. Overnight lows Monday night will fall into the lower 60s across the Hill Country and favored cool spots along the I-35 corridor near Austin.
624 PM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 (This afternoon through Monday night) Underneath nw mid-level flow aloft the cold front has pushed into the Trans Pecos where the best SB instability is found this afternoon. A quick warm up will occur Mon as signaled by MSLP falls and low-level thermal ridging with highs close to normal.
(Rest of tonight) A broken line of showers can currently be seen along a cold front stretching south from Lexington, KY to just east of Florence. Cooler temperatures and drier air will filter in amid the northwest flow behind this front, and it will feel like the first real taste of fall weather we have had across the southeast. Early morning lows will fall to the upper 50s/lower 60s across the area, about 10 degrees cooler than we saw last night.
553 PM MDT Sun Sep 11 2022 The axis of a mid to upper level ridge will move from the Nevada/Idaho area towards western Colorado tonight and into Monday. There is QG descent associated with ridge with very dry air within it. Warmer 700 mb temperatures will move over our forecast area as highs will warm around 10 degrees above today's highs. The highs across the plains will be in the mid 80s to low 90s with Denver reaching 88. Despite this, fire weather conditions will be on the lower side due to relatively light winds.
The axis of a mid to upper level ridge will move from the Nevada/Idaho area towards western Colorado tonight and into Monday. There is QG descent associated with ridge with very dry air within it. Warmer 700 mb temperatures will move over our forecast area as highs will warm around 10 degrees above today's highs. The highs across the plains will be in the mid 80s to low 90s with Denver reaching 88. Despite this, fire weather conditions will be on the lower side due to relatively light winds.
Stratus from low pressure centered over southeast Lake Michigan this evening will likely buoy temps in the 40s with a few upper 30s in northwest Wisconsin. Portions of northeast Minnesota, particularly climatologically cooler locations, will dip to between 30 and 34 degrees overnight. There is still a potential for fog development, which would likely keep temps a little warmer than currently forecast.
Will carry a slight chance for showers or thunderstorms a little longer into the "tonight" period - through around Midnight - as a cold front moves southeast through the area. /NF/ Today and tomorrow: An upper trough that has brought moisture into the region over previous days will begin to exit the ArkLaMiss area over the short term period. Overnight, a surface front will begin to push into the northwest as the upper trough axis lifts towards the eastern CONUS.
A cold front across central Kentucky and Tennessee continues to move east with a line of showers along it. Drier and cooler air moving in post-front during Monday. Discussion: A large low pressure system near Lake Michigan will remain nearly stationary overnight then drift northeast. This system will pull a cold front through our area tonight. Hi-res CAMS also show very little stronger convection (and coverage is not that extensive overall either), so will have no more than slight chance of thunder overnight to go with the high chance/likely PoPs. Cooler and drier airmass behind a cold front with end of showers by Monday evening.
Water vapor analysis shows that a weak upper level low currently located near the Bahamas is advecting towards our CWA from east to west. In addition, we are under the influence of a weak mid to upper level ridge, therefore, the light northeast to east winds. Throughout the night, the aforementioned upper level low will continue its track towards us.
600 PM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 (This evening through Monday Night) A weak surface cold front continues to linger near the coast this afternoon, with dry air advection in its wake as well as efficient daytime mixing dropping dew point values into the mid-60s at most locations this afternoon. Continued CAA will provide some additional relief in the form of lower temperatures on Monday night, with inland lows in the 60s to near 70 and coastal lows in the low to mid 70s.
1048 PM EDT Sun Sep 11 2022 A cold front will move through the region late Monday with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected ahead of the front.
545 PM MDT Sun Sep 11 2022 Widespread high pressure continues to dominate much of the region, from the Pacific Northwest through the Great Plains, as it continues to push the frontal boundary further eastward towards the east coast.
603 PM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 (This evening through Monday) Tranquil weather will prevail across West Central Texas the next 24 hours, with warmer temperatures beginning tomorrow. Some mid and high level clouds will affect mainly the Big Country overnight, otherwise skies will be clear to partly cloudy, with light winds and overnight lows mainly in the lower 60s.
Cooler temperatures will continue through midweek with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. A southerly flow continues over Arizona today in between the remains of Kay off the southern California coast and high pressure stretching from the Great Basin through New Mexico. Isolated to scattered storms have managed to develop so far this afternoon over the higher terrain mainly from the Mogollon Rim eastward. In addition, a band of enhanced mid- level flow on the eastern periphery of the trough will provide increased wind shear and the potential for better storm longevity and organization.