Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cool and dry conditions continue across the local area through the near term as high pressure settles into the eastern CONUS. Low temperatures tonight dip into the low to mid 30s inland and upper 30s to low 40s along the coast. Locations closer to the coast could see some patchy frost as well, though more limited to elevated surfaces due to the slightly warmer temperatures.
High pressure will build across the state during the short term while a broad trough persists aloft. The main concern with this forecast cycle is the expectation of another night of freezing temperatures for a portion of north GA. morning lows for Saturday look borderline freezing for most of the area north of Atlanta to Athens.
234 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019 High pressure is settling in and will turn the winds light overnight.
Tonight will not be as cold as this morning with low temperatures at all locations expected to stay above freezing. A weak cold front will work its way through the area overnight and will help to reinforce the cool and dry airmass already in place. After morning lows ranging from the mid/upper 30s inland to the low/mid 50s at the coast, nearly full sunshine can be expected during the day with temperatures warming up into the low to mid 60s. Temperatures Saturday night will be very similar to the lows we see tonight due to the weak, but reinforcing cold front that pushes through tomorrow.
High pressure will continue to provide clear skies, and frosty/freezing conditions remain in the mix for most of the area.
250 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019 High pressure will build across the region through Saturday.
342 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2019 Weak instability associated with upper level trough moving through has resulted in light scattered showers across the region. Temperatures still remain shy of seasonal norms, especially in the high temperatures.
/Tonight through Friday/ An upper level trough will continue to sweep across the region tonight.
A weak cold front was working through east-central Kansas early this afternoon, though the temperature gradient along the wind shift was quite broad and temperature readings only differed by a few degrees on either side of the boundary. A band of weak elevated radar echoes attendant with an approaching H500 trough was skirting the KS/NE border, with little if any rainfall reaching the surface given a modest influx of low-level dry air. WAA gradually takes place on Saturday afternoon on the backside of the ridge axis, helping nudge highs back into the lower 50s. Broad longwave troughing persists over northern North America through midweek, gradually shifting northeast as a stagnant blocking ridge just off the west coast of North America breaks down.
Westerly to northwesterly winds will reinforce the cool air in place, with lows falling into the lower 30s areawide - nearly 10 degrees below normal. Southerly winds will return highly modified Gulf moisture back into the central CONUS by mid- week, and an approaching upper trough and associated cold front will pass through the region Wed/Thu timeframe. Cooler temperatures for the remainder of the work week will follow with the frontal passage.
302 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2019 A 500 mb trough over the region will bring light pcpn over the Dakotas through this evening. With temperatures in the low 40s, the p-type will be rain. An area of high pressure south of the region on Saturday will bring westerly winds to the CWA with slightly warmer temperatures possible. Highs on Saturday should warm into the low to mid 40s.
249 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019 High pressure will build across the region through Saturday.
Isolated snow showers in the early morning hours would quickly change over to rain by late morning as temperatures rise above freezing.
A ridge of high pressure will remain across the Northern Rockies through the weekend.
257 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2019 Upper level blocking pattern will keep the central and eastern United States within an overall longwave trough, which will continue to keep us on the cool side for this time of year. At the surface, any cumulus/sprinkles should clear shortly after sunset as dry and cool air settles in post cold front. Lows near 20 to the mid 20s for lows and highs tomorrow will be in the lower to mid 50s as I increased temps a bit with loss of snow cover and plenty of sun.
WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO Clear skies and warmer weather today as high pressure aloft warms our air mass a bit. The first week of November has an upper level pattern featuring a ridge of high pressure over the West Coast, but with some weak low pressure systems that will bring slight variation to SoCal weather from time to time. A low pressure system to our south will spread a few altocumulus clouds across our sky Saturday.
Temperatures bottomed out in the 20s in the high desert, upper 20s but mostly 30s in the valleys. Tonight will feature a couple spots in the valleys achieving freezing temps, but we'll avoid a freeze overall. The first week of November has an upper level pattern featuring a ridge of high pressure over the West Coast, but with some weak low pressure systems to our west and southwest over the ocean that will translate through SoCal occasionally. A low pressure system to our south will spread a few altocumulus clouds across our sky Saturday morning.
Locally, gentle northeast breezes prevail across the Florida Keys, with temperatures in the lower to mid 80s and dew points in the mid 70s. With the meager northeasterly flow, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are working their way to the west-southwest through the southeastern Gulf of Mexico north of the Lower Keys. From synopsis, a cold front will stall over South Florida and the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight.
A cold front is projected to move through early Saturday switching surface winds back to the north. /issued 257 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2019/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night):The 12Z NAM and 12Z GFS currently indicate a weak coastal trough developing across the western Gulf of Mexico tonight with low to mid level moisture across the western Gulf moving towards the lower Texas coast late tonight into early Sat morning. The reinforcing cooler air will provide temperatures in the lower to mid 70s Sat afternoon. Lows Sat night will be cooler than tonight especially across the northern ranchlands.
Tomorrow will provide sunny skies and afternoon highs just a few degrees warmer than today, so if you liked today, you'll love tomorrow.
604 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2019 A dry sfc cold front extends from IA into eastern KS.
809 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2019 A weak cold front is just entering Osage county at the time of this writing. The cold front will clear the area by early tomorrow morning. This cold front will also bring slightly cooler temperatures Saturday than what was seen today across the area, but still not a bad day overall.
622 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2019 Upper level blocking pattern will keep the central and eastern United States within an overall longwave trough, which will continue to keep us on the cool side for this time of year. At the surface, any cumulus/sprinkles should clear shortly after sunset as dry and cool air settles in post cold front. Lows near 20 to the mid 20s for lows and highs tomorrow will be in the lower to mid 50s as I increased temps a bit with loss of snow cover and plenty of sun.
Stratiform cloud cover has developed along the southern Foothills and western portions of the Palmer Divide due to moisture evaporating off the snowfields on the plains being pushed against the terrain by a low-level anticyclone that has developed today. Temperatures aloft will be warming on Saturday, leading to a warmer day. Skies should be mostly sunny but temperatures will still be slightly cooler than normal due to the snow cover which will be decreasing through the day.
643 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2019 A weak cold front will move through central and eastern Illinois tonight bringing clouds and only spotty light rain and light snow. Cooler temperatures can be expected Saturday due to clouds and a brisk westerly wind.
Seasonably cool conditions are expected to be reinforced on Saturday with the encroachment of another cold front.
928 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019 High pressure will build across the region through Saturday.
820 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2019 A weak cold front will move through central and eastern Illinois tonight bringing clouds and only spotty light rain and light snow. Cooler temperatures can be expected Saturday due to clouds and a brisk westerly wind.
830 PM MDT Fri Nov 1 2019 Current surface analysis shows high pressure extending across ID and WY. Temperatures Saturday will be near guidance with breezy spots over the higher Black Hills and open plains.
A weak cold front will move across the area this evening and overnight. Another cold front will push across West Central Texas tonight. lows tonight will be in the 30s, and highs on Saturday will be much cooler than usual early November highs. Both bring an upper trough in the northern Baja California area by mid week.
/Issued 357 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2019/ A weak cold front will move across the area tonight, which will result in slightly cooler temperatures Saturday than those seen today.
Quiet weather is going to continue across NorCal this weekend as we remain under an upper level ridge.
652 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2019 Weak instability associated with upper level trough moving through has resulted in light scattered showers across the region. Temperatures still remain shy of seasonal norms, especially in the high temperatures.
The low in the Rex will remains a non-player and will not get swept out of the Baja region until mid-week and then stay to our South as it shears apart. Will make some adjustments and lean back toward the warmer guidance for tomorrow and see what happens.
A 500 mb trough over the region will bring light pcpn over the Dakotas through this evening. With temperatures in the low 40s, the p-type will be rain. An area of high pressure south of the region on Saturday will bring westerly winds to the CWA with slightly warmer temperatures possible. Highs on Saturday should warm into the low to mid 40s.
Cold front making steady progress south/southeast and should arrive near CLL 12z and IAH/HOU 16Z. Tonight will not be as cold as this morning with low temperatures at all locations expected to stay above freezing. A weak cold front will work its way through the area overnight and will help to reinforce the cool and dry airmass already in place. After morning lows ranging from the mid/upper 30s inland to the low/mid 50s at the coast, nearly full sunshine can be expected during the day with temperatures warming up into the low to mid 60s. Temperatures Saturday night will be very similar to the lows we see tonight due to the weak, but reinforcing cold front that pushes through tomorrow.
/issued 307 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2019/ After a brief warmup today for most of the area (although still below average), our next cold front is already making progress through northwestern Oklahoma and will bring a renewed push of colder air.
843 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2019 Another quiet and cold night is in store for the Tennessee Valley, as high pressure results in sustaining cool temperatures and weaker gradient winds. However, it appears as if dewpoints may not quite as low as previously thought -- and for that reason it may be a couple of degrees "warmer". Thus, have held off on a Freeze Watch for Saturday night, given the more sporatic nature of the subfreezing temperatures and it being more borderline.
A cold front will move through the area between 06Z and 08Z, shifting winds to the NNW, but remaining under 10KT overnight. We included G21KT at KDRT there according to model projections and proximity to a local pressure gradient resulting from the cold air mass blocked by the higher terrain in Mexico.
Low temperatures tonight will be several degrees warmer than last night for most locations as air mass continues to modify. Evidence of the temperature inversion could be seen this afternoon with high elevation sites as warm or warmer than lower valleys.
A dry dome of high pressure will provide us with a clear and chilly night tonight with light winds and low temperatures mostly in the 25-30 degree range. On Saturday a weak cold front will push through the region from west to east.
Some models suggest that the low level moisture that produced the cloudiness earlier today will still be lingering overnight, so grids show a bit of scattered clouds mainly over the Valley beginning late tonight. We should stay under the influence of the upper trough throughout this forecast period, that sends several reinforcing shots of cold air our way, keeping temps at or below seasonal normals through the period. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 32 58 34 58 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 31 55 33 55 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 31 55 31 55 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 30 54 30 53 31 / 0 0 0 0 0 NC.
Upper level trough over the north central U. and associated weak cold front at the surface were producing an area of light rain across central Iowa reaching into northeast Iowa early this afternoon. A weak warm front reaching out ahead across eastern Iowa, and west to southwest winds, had warmed temperatures into the mid 30s to mid 40s across the local forecast area. There may then be a secondary area of lift in the northwest flow behind the passing trough that may trigger a few flurries or very light snow.
747 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019 Longwave trough over much of the U. Cold front stalled over S FL while high pressure from Mid Atlantic region extends down into the Deep South keeping cooler NE low level flow in place over the local area. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with temps dropping overnight below 60 in Levy Co, and into the lower to mid 60s most other areas, except around 70 at the coast from Pinellas Sward and in our southern FL zones.
Cold front passage this morning has banked some llvl moisture up along the I-25 corridor this afternoon, with a smattering of clouds at around 3-4k across the plains. The exit of the upper low pressure system to the east, combined with high pressure over the desert sw, will result in lighter northwest flow aloft persisting across the region.
Slightly warmer as gradient winds increase from the south.
Surface winds will trend to a more northerly direction early Saturday morning as a cold front moves in from the north.
A cold front will move through the state between 10z-16z Sunday morning. Tonight Through Sunday A large upper trough will move through the Plains and eastern U. A cold front will move through Arkansas tonight without precipitation.
248 AM MDT Sat Nov 2 2019 Current surface map places high across the central plains with lee side trof over Montana into Wyoming. located between upper trof from Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes and upper ridge over the eastern Pacific.
A surge of high pressure will be over the area by daybreak leading to breezy northerly flow across the Coastal Plains. Winds will become easterly Sunday, leading to slightly warmer temperatures and another slight increase in moisture.
No significant changes, overall, and have kept the High Wind Warning in effect where previously issued for the wind prone areas. Plenty of sunshine has finally broken through the persistent cloud deck allowing for daytime temperatures to reach above freezing in the high plains and upper 20s in the western portions of the CWA. As a region of high pressure settles in across the region west to northwest flow will take hold on Saturday with stacked height gradients across the Craig to Arlington line. Main threat will be the high sustained winds between 40 and 45 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.
A shallow warm layer near the surface hints at possibility for freezing rain for north central SD in the early Sunday hours.
Frontal boundary loses defintion Tue PM as low-level thermal ridge amplifies across the wrn areas signaling warmer afternoon temps there, e of thermal ridge low-level mstr will be on the increase. Meanwhile a slow moving upper low will have moved into nrn Baja-sw AZ area. By Wed AM upper low will start to move ewd as 70kt 3h jet develops just s of the low. Model concensus is that highest PoPS will be across the nrn CWFA just ahead/e of the mid/upper level shrtwv trof. Into Wed night-Thur AM a cold front will move s in wake of mid/upper level shrtwv trof which will gradually shift SHRA/TSRA e and s. Definitely turning cooler Thur, probably 15-20 degrees cooler wrt high temps.
Temperatures will climb only into the lower to mid 60s today. High pressure will settle over the area for tonight and Sunday.
1135 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2019 A dry sfc cold front extends from IA into eastern KS. This front will move through and shift winds to the northwest tonight with slightly cooler/colder temperatures expected for Saturday/Saturday night/Sunday morning.
High temperatures are forecast to reach the low to mid 60s. Dry weather conditions are expected for Sunday with highs reaching the mid to upper 60s across the Hill Country to the low 70s across the Rio Grande and coastal plains areas.
A crossing cold front will provide a light dusting of snow north of Interstate 80 tonight. High pressure and drier weather return Sunday. An associated cold front will pass through during the late afternoon/evening hours. This is mainly due to the expected generally unfavorable W to perhaps briefly WNW flow in the low levels. Also, low-level ridging will become established again fairly rapidly behind the front, helping to cut off any non lake-related precipitation. Another cool afternoon is figured, with far northern and ridge locations possibly not reaching 40 during the day.
416 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019 A cold front is currently situated in south Florida helping to bring us some more seasonable temperatures. As we go throughout the day we will continue to have partly to mostly cloudy skies with temperatures still slightly above average with highs in the low to mid 80's. By Sunday the cold front will push farther south which will allow the temperature and humidity to drop a little more allowing for a great days.
343 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019 A broad upper trough will prevail over the southeast through tonight with the flow becoming more zonal on Sunday. but temperatures at or below freezing look borderline for north GA. A small area in the far northeast looks most likely for freezing. There is the possibility of some isolated spots of freezing fog across the far north this morning.
An upper level wave, from the deep trof of Low pressure in Canada, shifted through the region early this morning. Heading into the end of this weekend, High pressure will lift northeast through the Tennessee Valley into the Ohio Valley.
310 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2019 A weak cold front was just entering far west/northwest portions PAH forecast area at 08z, and will move just east of our area by around 12z. High pressure will slide just south of our region tonight then well east of our area on Sunday. A return of southerly winds will help temperatures rebound about 5 degrees warmer for Sunday.
The upper trough swings east of the region tonight with persistent northwest flow flattening out across the region somewhat as additional weak waves move through the upper flow and form a broad trough over the bulk of the U. An area of high pressure at the surface moves across the high plains tonight with a trough deepening in the lee of the Rockies by late Saturday in response to the flattening upper flow. High pressure keeps the region dry with a periodic increase in clouds as the weak upper short wave troughs move across the area.
An broad upper trough will move across central Indiana today and bring with it clouds and some flurries or sprinkles.
An upper level ridge will remain offshore keeping the region under a cool but dry northwest flow.
1135 PM MDT Fri Nov 1 2019 Current surface analysis shows high pressure extending across ID and WY. Temperatures Saturday will be near guidance with breezy spots over the higher Black Hills and open plains.
A huge longwave trough will remain anchored over the eastern two thirds of the US and Canada, while blocking high pressure over the Gulf of Alaska and stationary cutoff low over of Baja keep the western third dry.
1043 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2019 Weak instability associated with upper level trough moving through has resulted in light scattered showers across the region. Temperatures still remain shy of seasonal norms, especially in the high temperatures.
An upper trough over Minnesota will continue to progress eastward this morning and through the day Saturday. The long wave trough that progresses over the forecast area has now become laminar enough that models have removed the precipitation mention. This is a bit surprising given the 1000-500 mb relative humidity is still around 70%, and there will likely be subtle short wave troughs progressing over the forecast area in the flow.
Models are indicating the development of a weak coastal trough over the western Gulf waters later this morning along with the advection of some shallow, though sufficient moisture to support slight chance PoPs over the extreme southeastern portion of our CWA and Gulf waters. Tonight, temperatures will be slightly cooler than last night, but still remain in the upper 40s to lower 50s range.
303 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2019 Early this morning, a dry surface cold front had already pushed through all but the far southeastern portion of the CWA with winds shifting to the northwest and bringing a slightly cooler airmass behind it.
Surface winds will turn westerly by noontime, and temperatures should rise to the upper 30s to around 40 with some warmer areas possible where breaks in sky cover persist long enough for additional heating.
1151 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2019 A weak cold front will move through central and eastern Illinois tonight bringing clouds and only spotty light rain and light snow. Cooler temperatures can be expected Saturday due to clouds and a brisk westerly wind.
318 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2019 Currently at 08Z, a broad upper trough remains in control from the northeastern CONUS through the Great Lakes region with the southern extent of the trough axis now advancing itno the Mid MS Valley region. The westward extent of the broader longwave trough is observed to be situated over the Pacific northwest / northern Rockies regions. Surface frontal boundaries -- weak as they are -- are trailing the upper trough and decaying and becoming more diffuse over the Mid MS Valley region into portions of the southern central Plains region. Otherwise, H85 temps warm slightly with low level WAA into the afternoon as southern Plains surface ridging expands into the region backing winds to a more southwesterly component into the afternoon.
The coldest temperatures are once again in the Golden Triangle where readings are close to freezing in some spots. Most sites areawide are running close to yesterday or a degree or two warmer. This high will trek east through the day and should become elongated and centered across the Mid-South tonight. Low temperatures tonight will once again drop into the 30s, with the lowest being in the northeast corner of the forecast area. Still think that temperatures will flirt with freezing in some locations but remain above that mark and will not issue any freeze warnings at this time. However, I will consider issuing a limited risk for freezing in this area for now.
Cold front making steady progress and should still arrive around 12-13z CLL and 15-17z IAH though as the high sags southward into the western portions of the state and ridging over SETX/LA weakens will likely see winds become northerly just prior to 12z across much of the area. Gusty winds should be the most notable change with the cold front persisting until late afternoon inland and may continue for a few more hours at GLS. Temperatures overnight will be a bit higher than yesterday given today's eastward shift in winds, bottoming out in the upper 30s across northern zones, low to mid 40s around the metro area, and the low 50s near the coast.