Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Increased cloud-cover and instability associated with the nearby disturbance will limit afternoon high temperatures to the lower to mid 90s on Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, with a fairly relaxed pressure gradient across the region and high pressure to the north, slightly cooler conditions to prevail areawide.
323 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 Another beautiful day for the Mid-South today with highs in lower 90s and lows tonight in the low 70s. Highs tomorrow will be in the low 90s with lows in the low 70s. By the holiday weekend, rain chances will increases each afternoon as our current ridge breaks down. Highs through the weekend will be yet again in the low 90s and lows in the 70s.
Most of the period we will be under a flat ridge pattern across the Cowboy State.
This is the result of the tropical disturbance over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and subtropical ridging centered just east of the Bahamas both of which are driving south-southeasterly flow with PWATs near or above 2 inches across most of Central AL, especially south.
50 inches of rain over the service area, with the highest amounts being northeast of a Quitman Co (GA) to Lafayette Co (FL). High temperatures for today will be in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows for tonight will be in the low to mid 70s. Upper level ridging is forecast to remain in place across the southeastern conus through the middle of the next work week. The biggest driver for this weeks upcoming weather, will be a Bermuda high pressure system that will keep a steady southerly to southeasterly flow pattern over the region during this time frame.
An upper trough off the West Coast will strengthen over the weekend.
A warm front and corresponding envelop of deeper moisture have pushed farther inland and now encompass more of the forecast area compared to the last couple of days.
/issued 412 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022/ Aloft, northern stream has become somewhat more progressive with upper ridging moving east of the Rockies and troughs along the west coast and moving across the Great Lakes and Appalachians toward the east coast. To the north of that boundary, high pressure extended from New England to Oklahoma with dew points mainly in the 50s and lower 60s. An area of low pressure continues over the western Gulf of Mexico, drifting westward.
Forecast remains unchanged for this afternoon with showers and thunderstorms becoming more scattered and for the most part confined to south of I-40 and the higher elevations of the Southern Appalachians where there is better moisture and terrain forcing respectively. McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 88 70 86 70 / 10 40 20 60 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 90 69 88 69 / 10 30 20 50 20 Oak Ridge, TN 69 90 69 88 69 / 0 30 10 50 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 89 66 86 67 / 0 20 10 50 20.
A cold front will slowly be settling into northeast NE Thursday afternoon, and then through the region Thursday night. Before the storms arrive, high temperatures should reach the lower to middle 90s.
Westerly flow will bring dry conditions and cooler temperatures today as a trough moves across southwest Canada.
Ahead of this front, stronger south-southwest winds and rising low-level thicknesses/850 mb temps should lead to a warmer night tonight and daytime Thursday with little cloud.
Further Details: An area of high pressure at 500mb will slowly migrate eastward through tomorrow night. Its not until Thursday night we start to see clouds increase from the north/northwest as a prefrontal trough swings through. Models vary with the handling of the prefrontal trough axis and whether or not it stalls before reaching the Panhandles. Same can be said about the cold front trailing behind the trough.
1127 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2022 Current surface map places trough across western South Dakota. with weak cold front sliding into western South Dakota late in the day.
We will stay in a deep tropical air mass owing to deep high pressure centered over the SE CONUS/western Atlantic and a developing low pressure over the western Gulf.
149 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 Another spectacular late June afternoon today with temps in the mid 80s and dewpoints mixing down into the low 50s amid light and variable winds. However by early tomorrow morning the ridge axis that has separated drier low level air from the more seasonable humidity will break down and shift to the northeast.
Inverted trough lies across the local coastal waters and south FL this afternoon accompanied by some mid-level troughing across the southern peninsula. A trailing ridge axis will remain just north of FL keeping an E-SE wind flow across the area.
/issued 1023 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022/ Disturbance over the Gulf remains poorly organized as it heads steadily westward toward the Lower TX Coast, but it is helping to generate a fair amount of shower/TSTM activity over the coastal waters this morning. A few showers are starting to pop up/spread into the Lower Atchafalaya Basin, and expect additional development across the area this afternoon into this evening.
This should help eventual instability build the area ahead of the sfc trof/cold front as low level moisture advects into the area. It will take this and also high temps in the low 90s to have a chance for rising air parcels to break the surface cap and generate t-storms. Otherwise cooler with NW winds. The system triggering convection will shift east along with the surface trof and cooler air will wrap behind the system as it departs.
Lows should fall into the lower to middle 70's for most locations.
In its wake, deeper moisture is streaming into the cntrl/nrn Plains ahead of elongated nwrn CONUS/wrn CN troughing, supporting the development of isolated to scattered convection across much of WY, UT, and nrn CO. At the sfc, a trof is in place across wrn SD, with an evident moisture/mixing boundary extending north and east of the Black Hills. Breezy to windy conditions continue ahead of the boundary/trof across s cntrl SD, where some gusts have approached 50 mph today. As the mid-to-upper trof shifts ewd tonight into early tomorrow, drier midlevel air will sink swd into the nrn Plains. However, its swd progression will be shunted somewhat by a building ridge over the Rockies and associated low-to-midlevel theta-E advection.
130 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 High pressure, dry conditions, and warm temperatures persist through Thursday.
212 PM MDT Wed Jun 29 2022 A cooler and drier airmass was entering the N part of the forecast area at 19z. A secondary push of cooler air will dive S through the area overnight. Thursday looked dry, breezy in the E, and cooler, under zonal flow giving way to upper ridging.
Have lowered overnight lows in some of the normally cooler locations, with the rest of the forecast on track at this time.
Thu-Thu night: The Tri-State area will remain situated on the northern periphery of a broad upper level ridge -- at the far southern fringe of the mid-latitude westerlies. perhaps assoc/w a subtle change in the orientation/magnitude of the upper level ridge over the 4-Corners and stronger flow aloft (at/above 300 mb) over the Intermountain West/northern Rockies bringing small amplitude waves in closer proximity to the central Rockies.
During the post-midnight hours, with an inverted trough over the nearby ocean, coastal convergence and isentropic ascent increasing, this will lead to the formation of isolated to scattered showers and t-storms moving onshore. The highest chances in the 30-40% range will be over the coastal corridor, where we find the greatest MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Dew points depressions are close to zero as of late Wednesday, so temps overall won't drop much more, falling to 70-74F inland from US-17, and a bit warmer near the coast and in downtown Charleston. The region will remain under the influence of mid to upper level ridging, while a trough over the New England states gradually shifts eastward.
/issued 323 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022/ Another beautiful day for the Mid-South today with highs in lower 90s and lows tonight in the low 70s. Highs tomorrow will be in the low 90s with lows in the low 70s. By the holiday weekend, rain chances will increases each afternoon as our current ridge breaks down. Highs through the weekend will be yet again in the low 90s and lows in the 70s. SWB 00Z TAFs A warm front to the southeast will progress northwestward through the forecast area tonight and Thursday.
Winds will vary through the period as low pressure developing over the western Gulf influences wind fields.
/issued 220 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022/ Much drier air has begun to infiltrate the mid and upper levels as upper level ridging over the Four Corners region gradually expands eastward. Upper ridging will flatten somewhat as it shifts further overhead tomorrow, with continuing subsidence allowing warm and dry weather to continue. /DWK Very few forecast challenges are evident in the extended realm as a zonal ridge axis tends to linger over or near our area for much of the time. The dry layer aloft currently over most of the southern Great Plains is scheduled to slowly modify through the end of the week as mid-level winds turn more easterly immediately south of the flat ridge axis.
By tomorrow afternoon, a scattered CU field will develop over SE AR and a mid- high cloud shield will back into the state from the SE in advance of a warm front pushing north.
755 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure still in firm control of the weather through eastern Kentucky. Currently temperatures vary from the low to mid 80s most places to the mid 70s in the already shaded valleys. This high pressure will continue to remain in place through the remainder of the afternoon and into the overnight hours. High pressure continues into the day Thursday before a weak system skirts the area for Thursday afternoon.
Scattered thunderstorm development has begun across the high terrain slowly spreading into the lower elevations and the northeast as forecast this morning. Now is the time to head home and move indoors as coverage increases, especially across the high terrain.
Mid level trough continues to exit east of the area and clouds continue to partially scour out across the region. An upper trough will remain over the area tonight and Thursday with west to southwest flow aloft and low level onshore flow. Low clouds at times tonight and Thursday morning with the lowest ceilings likely Thursday morning. Onshore flow will continue for the next several days with high pressure offshore and lower pressure inland.
346 PM MDT Wed Jun 29 2022 Cloud cover this morning inhibited thunderstorm development earlier today but, once that cleared, thunderstorms quickly fired over the higher terrain. The progression of the area of high pressure over the Four Corners area earlier today has allowed monsoon moisture to stream in from the southwest. While activity generally looks to remain stratiform into early Thursday, as we head into the late morning and early afternoon hours stronger thunderstorms will develop as the trough passes overhead. Surface dewpoints will climb into the low to mid 40s as a result.
851 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 A large area of high pressure will drift east off the Carolina Coast and create a southwesterly flow of increasingly warmer and more humid air.
An upper trough off the West Coast will strengthen over the weekend for a chance of showers--mainly in the Cascades.
Expect a quiet night as temps cool into the low to mid 60s. Low-level ridging shifts east of the region tonight, allowing southerly return flow to develop. It will be quite warm and more humid with afternoon highs topping out in the lower 90s in most places.
622 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 Upper ridging building in from the west along with persistent southerly flow will support above normal temperatures Thursday in the 90s to near 100 degrees, warmest west of I-135.
Thursday will be even warmer, with lower elevation highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s as the upper ridge axis shifts over the area. Dry weather will begin the short term period Thursday night ahead of an approaching cold front moving southeastward from the Great Lakes.
with the high based storms moving over the Panhandle.
748 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 High pressure will remain over the area through Thursday before shifting to the East Coast.
727 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 High pressure, dry conditions, and warm temperatures persist through Thursday.
Low pressure was located in the Central and Northern Plains with high pressure over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
906 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 High pressure will remain over the area through Thursday before shifting to the East Coast.
712 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 High pressure shifts east away from the Mid-Atlantic region tonight into Thursday.
1036 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 A large area of high pressure will drift east off the Carolina Coast and create a southwesterly flow of increasingly warmer and more humid air.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to ramp up by 17/18z as the low pressure in the gulf approaches South Texas. Satellite imagery shows disorganized convection over the northwest Gulf of Mexico on the eastern side of the low pressure area. Latest tropical model guidance shows the low will continue westward this evening and then turn northwest overnight. Most of the models show the low pressure area moving northward on Thursday and moving inland over the northern Coastal Bend and Mid-Coast region late Thursday afternoon or early Thursday evening. This latest forecast track of the low will push the higher moisture toward the Mid-Coast. Scattered convection will affect the coastal plains Thursday into Thursday night as the low moves northward and a mid level low drifts inland.
515 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 High pressure shifts east away from the Mid-Atlantic region tonight into Thursday.
854 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 High pressure off to the northeast along with a developing area of low pressure to the west directs an east-southeasterly flow across the Florida peninsula over the next few days. Tomorrow, temperatures rise into the low 90s.
The rising heights are indicative of a filling (weakening) low pressure area, as high pressure over the east-central Atlantic continues to build westward towards the Florida Peninsula. Easterly breezes will freshen Thursday and Thursday night, then peak and lull through the weekend, as high pressure builds westward into the Southeast United States.
615 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance Another spectacular late June afternoon today with temps in the mid 80s and dewpoints mixing down into the low 50s amid light and variable winds. However by early tomorrow morning the ridge axis that has separated drier low level air from the more seasonable humidity will break down and shift to the northeast.
The steering flow is still weak due to the High Pressure Center influence. The High Pressure will move to our east and the longwave trough will move into the Pacific Northwest.
544 PM MDT Wed Jun 29 2022 Cloud cover this morning inhibited thunderstorm development earlier today but, once that cleared, thunderstorms quickly fired over the higher terrain. The progression of the area of high pressure over the Four Corners area earlier today has allowed monsoon moisture to stream in from the southwest. While activity generally looks to remain stratiform into early Thursday, as we head into the late morning and early afternoon hours stronger thunderstorms will develop as the trough passes overhead. Surface dewpoints will climb into the low to mid 40s as a result.
Meanwhile, a surge of moisture will advect into the area from the southeast ahead of an inverted trough.
In its wake, deeper moisture is streaming into the cntrl/nrn Plains ahead of elongated nwrn CONUS/wrn CN troughing, supporting the development of isolated to scattered convection across much of WY, UT, and nrn CO. At the sfc, a trof is in place across wrn SD, with an evident moisture/mixing boundary extending north and east of the Black Hills. Breezy to windy conditions continue ahead of the boundary/trof across s cntrl SD, where some gusts have approached 50 mph today. As the mid-to-upper trof shifts ewd tonight into early tomorrow, drier midlevel air will sink swd into the nrn Plains. However, its swd progression will be shunted somewhat by a building ridge over the Rockies and associated low-to-midlevel theta-E advection. Gradually cooler and more moist air will continue to push into the region this evening.
Stratiform rain with a few embedded thunderstorms are continuing across Yavapai County, and will likely last for several more hours as they appear to be supported by a weak wave moving through the anticyclone in southern Arizona. Scattered thunderstorm development has begun across the high terrain slowly spreading into the lower elevations and the northeast as forecast this morning. Now is the time to head home and move indoors as coverage increases, especially across the high terrain.
228 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Upper ridging will take even firmer control of the weather today, resulting in the troposphere further warming and drying. Even the extremely isolated showers yesterday afternoon/evening look unlikely this afternoon locally as the ridge exerts itself.
Enough dry air is expected to persist in the low levels to maintain dry weather through the night, though southerly flow behind the retreating high pressure will transport increasingly warmer and moister air into the area. Warm air advection will allow temperatures to rise above normal, reaching highs in the upper 80s to low 90s in the lowlands and mid 70s to 80s in the higher elevations. Overnight temperatures will be mild, with lows in the mid 60s to around 70 in the lowlands and low to mid 60s for the higher elevations. Dry weather will begin the short term period Thursday night ahead of an approaching cold front moving southeastward from the Great Lakes.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today, with the highest chances along the mountains and southern TN Valley. A midlevel ridge is currently over the area this morning, and will drift east through the day. With the trough axis positioned across our southern sections tonight, and continued moisture advection through the column, some showers will likely persist through tonight.
152 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2022 A weak cold front has pushed across much of the area with stable conditions and no precipitation expected over the northern third of the area today.
This TAF package has not diverted much from the previous TAF forecast, and there is still some uncertainty as to how the low pressure located over the western Gulf of Mexico will evolve in the next day or so. Activity is expected to increase and move further inland during the day as the low pressure approaches the Mid to Upper Texas Coasts.
Temperatures were between 2 to 7 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago across the forecast area with readings genereally in the mid to upper 60s. Dew points were generally still in the low to mid 50s over the area. Otherwise HI values will be around the high temperature which will be from the upper 80s to low 90s.
203 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022 High pressure shifts east away from the Mid-Atlantic region tonight into Thursday.
Upper level (250 mb) low will remain nearly stationary over the Straits of FL while its mid level (500 mb) reflection, in the form of a trough, extends across central and SW FL.
High pressure at the surface will be situated to our east inducing a southerly flow across the region, reinforcing this warm, moist air mass. With plenty of moisture underneath this ridge, residual outflow boundaries from yesterday's convection will serve as a focus for scattered showers and storms once again this afternoon and evening.
An inverted trough over the nearby ocean, coastal convergence and isentropic ascent increasing, this will lead to the formation of isolated to scattered showers and t-storms moving onshore. The highest chances in the 30-40% range will be over the coastal corridor, where we find the greatest MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Dew points depressions are close to zero as of late Wednesday, so temps overall won't drop much more, falling to 70-74F inland from US-17, and a bit warmer near the coast and in downtown Charleston. The region will remain under the influence of mid to upper level ridging, while a trough over the New England states gradually shifts eastward.
312 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Current surface analysis reveals elongated area of high pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic region and extending back across the Commonwealth and into the mid MS Valley. To our south, a warm front is draped across the lower MS and TN Valleys. Under clear skies and calm winds, another night of good radiational cooling has allowed temperatures to drop into the lower to mid 60s for most, although a few locations remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s. As the weakening warm front lifts northward into southern KY, expect warm and moist air to pump into the region, with PWATs increasing into the 1. Otherwise, expect another dry day for much of the area with afternoon temperatures warming into the lower 90s.
(Today and tonight) Warm and dry conditions are expected again today with high pressure continuing to build over the region. Overnight lows tonight will remain in the lower to mid 70s.
/issued 1024 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022/ A warm front is lifting north across north MS bringing more humid air back into the Mid-South. The warm front will continue lifting north overnight and as result lows will be quite a bit milder than last night. /issued 323 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022/ Another beautiful day for the Mid-South today with highs in lower 90s and lows tonight in the low 70s. Highs tomorrow will be in the low 90s with lows in the low 70s. By the holiday weekend, rain chances will increases each afternoon as our current ridge breaks down. Highs through the weekend will be yet again in the low 90s and lows in the 70s. SWB 06Z TAFs A warm front will continue to progress northwestward through the forecast area overnight and Thursday.
Zonal flow is in place over the forecast area today with a closed upper low over northern Canada. A cold front is expected to swing in from the northwest later today.
Western terminals will see greater cloud cover tonight and Thursday morning before isold-sct afternoon tstms develop by 18Z-21Z over the high terrain.
216 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022 A large area of high pressure will drift east off the Carolina Coast and create a southwesterly flow of increasingly warmer and more humid air.
123 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Weak high pressure will bring partial clearing and cool temperatures tonight. A warm front will then move northeast across the region Thursday, ushering in above normal temperatures to end the week.
A weak Pacific cold front moving through the nrn high Plains should back into wrn and ncntl Nebraska today with northeast winds developing late this afternoon as the front becomes stationary across nwrn KS and sern Neb. The RAP and HRRR suggested highs around 100F south but the forecast assumes cloud cover will disrupt the heating cycle for slightly cooler highs.
1024 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 A warm front is lifting north across north MS bringing more humid air back into the Mid-South. The warm front will continue lifting north overnight and as result lows will be quite a bit milder than last night. /issued 323 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022/ Another beautiful day for the Mid-South today with highs in lower 90s and lows tonight in the low 70s. Highs tomorrow will be in the low 90s with lows in the low 70s. By the holiday weekend, rain chances will increases each afternoon as our current ridge breaks down. Highs through the weekend will be yet again in the low 90s and lows in the 70s. SWB 00Z TAFs A warm front to the southeast will progress northwestward through the forecast area tonight and Thursday.
437 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022 High pressure will slide off to the east with a southerly flow developing.
Broad, but messy, upper level ridging stretches across much of the southern CONUS this morning. A tropical disturbance rotates off the Texas coast, and a weak upper level trough axis stretches from this disturbance to the northeast toward the southern Appalachians.