Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
617 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018 Pleasant, spring-like weekend for the local area as high pressure at the sfc and a loft meanders across the region. Clouds, any lingering pcpn across the south will exit south/southeast early this morning as the parent low pressure system spins toward the ohio river valley. Temperatures look to top out 5 to 10 degrees above the mid March normals - with some locations warming into the lower 50s. Cooler, Canadian air works in starting Mon, and temps back to the seasonable normals are expected into mid week. Good southerly fetch ahead of the trough will supply plenty of moisture to fuel pcpn development. An area of dry, Canadian high pressure will settle south into the area for today and tonight. Winds are going to be light with the center of the high nearby or overhead.
High pressure is sitting over the area with perfect boating conditions today and tomorrow.
No major changes to the current temperature forecast with a lean toward the BC Consall forecast that is slightly warmer than MOS guidance most places.
934 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 The axis of high pressure remains centered over the area this morning with light and variable winds in place.
1036 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will provide dry weather tonight. A weak cold front will push through the area Sunday.
654 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018 Low pressure moving into the Tennessee Valley will continue to drag stratus southeast in its wake tonight. Meanwhile, guidance is showing ridging building aloft and forecast soundings indicate a strong subsidence inversion due to this ridge. This stratification will likely allow little chance for the low level stratus deck to mix out, especially given that our forecast area will remain in weak cold advection at least into early Sunday morning. However, with the thinking that those clouds will stick around for much of the morning and perhaps into early afternoon, think the colder side of guidance in the low to mid 50s for highs Sunday is appropriate.
Min temps slightly warmer than last night, approaching near average in the mid to upper 50s tonight. (prev discussion) A weakening surface front will stall just north of the state tomorrow as low pressure pushes off the Carolina coast. (previous) Tranquil conditions as high pressure settles to our east.
Areas of fog and stratus will expand across the region again tonight with ample moisture in the lower levels. A piece of energy from a large upper level trof will move push into western Montana through late this evening, bringing a round of snow to our mountains and areas north and west of Livingston and Roundup through the weekend. This system lifts north toward eastern zones on Sunday evening, impacting the east, while main trof axis shifts into the west.
A cold front nearly bisects the Mid-South, south and nearly parallel to I-40. Behind the front, drier and cooler air will filter into the entire Mid-South through the evening hours.
A weak short wave an associated cold front will move across the Tennessee Vally this evening. The cold front will move into central/south GA Sunday, however as the next short wave moves into the Mississippi Valley, the front will move north as a warm front. Significant isentropic lift along the warm front will bring increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms to the western part of the CWA late Sunday afternoon and across the entire CWA Sunday night.
726 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 Weak low pressure across the Ohio valley will slide southeast off the mid Atlantic coast as high pressure builds southeast across the Great Lakes region tonight.
A lake breeze will return Sunday afternoon with a back door cold front sweeping through Sunday evening.
Skies will remain clear through tonight, followed by increasing clouds from the west on Sunday as an upper-level trough ejects eastward off the Rockies.
Main focus of the extended is weather associated with an upper trough that continues to sit and spin over the intermountain west, ejecting a wave into the plains Sunday night. Thus, precipitation type will be mainly determined by temperatures in the lowest few hundred feet, which are also hugging the rain/snow threshold.
High pressure will shift S and E of the waters during the weekend. A series of low pressure systems will track to the north of the waters.
Needed to lower overnight temperatures in some eastern areas into the low to mid 20s due to favorable radiational cooling conditions. The light winds will turn back to the east to northeast Sunday afternoon, and increase Sunday night after a cold front sweeps through. A lake breeze will return Sunday afternoon with a back door cold front sweeping through Sunday evening.
Cold front is working its way through the mid state, and just passed through the Nashville metro area within the last hour.
Minimal forcing within the enhanced band of moisture with the only precip possible expected to be some drizzle or freezing drizzle in the parts of northern Minnesota Sunday. Temps will be cooler for the eastern areas with clouds limiting daytime heating and for those along the sun covered valley temps will be similar.
Temperatures were much cooler across the north as a result of the cloud cover and continued 850mb cold air advection. A large upper level low moving across the Western US will be our next precip maker for the area. Temps will slowly drop into the 30s tonight as high pressure slides north of the area. As the main upper low and a stout 130kt upper level jet approaches Sunday night, additional showers will develop and move through the area.
1001 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 Low pressure system brings rain and storms across the WV/VA/KY borders this evening.
Most of the high resolution guidance suggests light fog development later tonight, with pockets of locally dense fog. Ridging at the surface and aloft over the Plains this afternoon, keeping a northerly component in the winds over the forecast area. Cooler air filtering into the region, but the stubborn stratus associated with the low passing through the Midwest into IN this afternoon is slow to erode. Lighter winds in the overnight combined with llvl moisture still trapped in the low levels may slow the progression of the low clouds to the southwest.
950 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 A very cold night is on tap tonight in the wake of a cold front for tonight. One or more low pressure systems are expected to develop off the mid Atlantic coast midweek and currently look to pass far enough south of our area to keep us dry. the cold front extended from the gulf of Maine through southern New England. especially across northern and eastern sections in proximity to the upper low.
Cold front will arrive this evening with shra/tsra along and ahead of the front now through next few hours.
Upper low overhead continues to produce rain and snow showers this evening with snow level 3000-3500 feet MSL. The upper low will shift to eastern Idaho by Sunday morning while slowly filling.
1046 PM MDT Sat Mar 17 2018 The low pressure trough and cold front that has brought widespread snow showers to western Wyoming today will move through the area this evening with moisture and instability decreasing. The trough and cold front will spread showers across the south first then over much of the area east of the Continental Divide with rain snow mix changing to snow this evening.
Have not seen observations trending towards dense fog as of yet, and with the low stratus already in place, northeast Montana may just continue to see low stratus and just patchy fog the rest of the night. We still expect a mix of light snow and freezing rain/drizzle mainly west of Glasgow overnight, then the second round further eastward toward the North Dakota border Sunday. Hickford Multi-lobed upper low pressure complex over the PacNW and the northern Rockies continue to spin and rotate multiple smaller low pressure disturbances through our region of northeast Montana.
The amount of cloud cover expected on Sunday and the fact that the warm front has pushed so far south will definitely limit instability over eastern Oklahoma for tomorrow.
1027 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 Currently - A pressure ridge extending across central Florida is gradually settling southwards. Short Term Update - The ridge axis will continue to slip into southern Florida through the overnight period. High pressure migrating down the Florida Peninsula will keep winds light out of the east to southeast.
Winds will remain out of the north for most of the day on Sunday keeping temperatures cooler than they were today, but we should still warm into the upper 60s. By the afternoon hours a warm front will lift north bringing an increasing chance of showers and eventually thunderstorms to the mid state.
/issued 417 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018/ A cold front has become stationary around the Interstate 30 corridor this afternoon, but with a strong cap in place, precipitation development will be limited. However, a strong upper trough continues to dig southeast towards the Southern Rockies and a weak upper disturbance is currently passing over Texas strengthening southwest flow aloft. As the previous mentioned trough moves into the Rockies, the stalled surface boundary will move back north as a warm front and large scale ascent will spread over the area.
1256 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 Weak low pressure across the Ohio valley will slide southeast off the mid Atlantic coast as high pressure builds southeast across the Great Lakes region tonight.
744 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 Dry conditions can be expected through the remainder of the weekend as a ridge of high pressure controls the weather across the region.
1158 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018 Low pressure moving into the Tennessee Valley will continue to drag stratus southeast in its wake tonight. Meanwhile, guidance is showing ridging building aloft and forecast soundings indicate a strong subsidence inversion due to this ridge. This stratification will likely allow little chance for the low level stratus deck to mix out, especially given that our forecast area will remain in weak cold advection at least into early Sunday morning. However, with the thinking that those clouds will stick around for much of the morning and perhaps into early afternoon, think the colder side of guidance in the low to mid 50s for highs Sunday is appropriate.
This was occurring where dewpoints were lingering in the lower 30s with enhancement from the patchy snow cover from Saturday morning and proximity of the slowly retreating stratus deck over northeast MO into extreme southeast IA Have updated the forecast to bring fog in a bit earlier and linger into mid morning over this area and made the coverage area a bit more expansive.
Tonight, warmer and more moist air starts to be advected in. With temperatures in the critical threshold of mid 30s there could be mix of rain, freezing drizzle and snow Sunday afternoon and evening.
After the showers depart in the early evening will be looking for the Pacific cold front/pre-frontal trough to swing winds to the west around 08z at IAH with the potential for SHRA again. On Sunday, capping should limit precipitation to just some weak showers in the morning but fcst soundings show the cap weakening between 18-21z, convective temps in the lower 80s and PW values increasing to 1. The drier air will allow for some cooler temps over the western half of the CWA.
927 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 Weak low pressure across the Ohio valley will slide southeast off the mid Atlantic coast as high pressure builds southeast across the Great Lakes region tonight.
514 PM MDT Sat Mar 17 2018 Persistent western CONUS trough will finally shift east, splitting in the process, with the strongest impulse expected on it's southern periphery into the central/southern plains. Quiet weather will then prevail mid-week as another round of deep layer ridging commences, supporting dry weather and warmer temps. Western CONUS upper trough is in the process of ejecting into the central CONUS, with WAA to its NE over the region. Any precip that will develop will be in the form of liquid, which would be freezing rain where temps fall back to below 32. Light rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow will be possible with any precip that develops in this FGEN zone.
The arrival of the highest winds has slowed with the latest models and looks to hold off at LBB until at least 5 PM, but any additional slowing of the parent storm would cause further delay. Surface pressures will fall Sunday afternoon and evening and a Pacific Cold front will push through as well late Sunday.
A narrow corridor of surface dew points in the upper 40s advects northward ahead of the surface cyclone into central and southwest KS by Sunday afternoon. It appears convection could initiate in the vicinity of the surface cyclone and then weaken as it progresses eastward given the narrow zone of positive buoyancy. There is still slight discrepancy regarding the track of the midlevel low pressure Sunday night.
The highest risk for storms with the second round will generally be from I-40 northward.
724 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 A very cold night is on tap tonight in the wake of a cold front for tonight. One or more low pressure systems are expected to develop off the mid Atlantic coast midweek and currently look to pass far enough south of our area to keep us dry. the cold front extended from the gulf of Maine through southern New England. especially across northern and eastern sections in proximity to the upper low.
For SUNDAY, upper level trough will slowly move east and become negatively tilted as it moves across the central and southern Rockies.
Low pressure area has shifted east of the mountains and weak front over southern areas will shift southward and eastward overnight.
737 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 High pressure will begin to build into the region tonight.
On Sunday, capping should limit precipitation to just some weak showers in the morning but fcst soundings show the cap weakening between 18-21z, convective temps in the lower 80s and PW values increasing to 1. The drier air will allow for some cooler temps over the western half of the CWA.
739 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will provide dry weather tonight. A weak cold front will push through the area Sunday.
Low pressure near Vancouver Island and will slowly move south to off the Washington and north Oregon coasts tonight and Sunday.
656 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018 Ridging at the surface and aloft over the Plains this afternoon, keeping a northerly component in the winds over the forecast area. Cooler air filtering into the region, but the stubborn stratus associated with the low passing through the Midwest into IN this afternoon is slow to erode. Lighter winds in the overnight combined with llvl moisture still trapped in the low levels may slow the progression of the low clouds to the southwest.
Towards the surface, lee troughing will strengthen tonight with southeasterly winds across western Kansas. Meanwhile, the area of low pressure across eastern Colorado will slide eastward into far western Kansas in the afternoon. As for temperatures, lows tonight are expected to dip into the mid to upper 30s with highs tomorrow ranging from the low 70s across far western Kansas with mid to upper 60s elsewhere.
648 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018 High pressure will gradually build eastward into portions of the Central Great Lakes by Sunday Night, while an inverted trough develops over the Central Dakotas due to a developing Colorado Low. This will allow for strong radiational cooling before clouds move in, so overnight lows are a few degrees cooler than the previous forecast. Lows range from the teens across Inland locations, to the low to mid 20s along the Lake Superior Shoreline. With the increased cloud cover, expect cooler temperatures in comparison to today, but it still will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than normal.
708 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 High pressure to bring SKC conditions with light/variable wind into Sunday and a shift to north/northeast late in the forecast period. The central Great Lakes will be influenced by a high amplitude upper level ridge and its remnants in the coming days. Evolution of pattern late this weekend is one for the ridge to break down as fresh jet energy becomes reintroduced in the southern stream just south of Arizona. Thus, a pattern of deep column stability and surface ridging is favored. Models show surface ridging in control with full sunshine. Another day of moderation, 850mb temperatures a 2-3 degrees C warmer than Saturday, should allow temperatures away from the larger bodies of water to warm to near 50 degrees.
The current storm remains on track with an associated cold front pushing from west to east across Arizona overnight.
1025 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 High pressure will begin to build into the region tonight.
Aloft - A complex trough from the Northwest Pacific coast-Northern pushing a ridge from Mexico to south-central Canada toward the Mississippi Valley. A short wave trough over the Ohio Valley exits off the southern Mid-Atlantic coast. The axis of Atlantic high pressure extending over the Gulf of Mexico shifts south. mainly in the lower levels. Relaxed high pressure drifts south over the waters with light mainly southwest to west winds for the next couple of days. Then dry air filtering in behind a cold front will drop the min RH down to or below critical levels for the end of the week.
704 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 Low pressure system brings rain and storms across the WV/VA/KY borders this evening.
Aloft - A ridge centered over the western Gulf of Mexico and extending to many of the Gulf coastal states along with Hurricane Jose well offshore Cape Hatteras are providing northwesterly flow above the area. Surface - High pressure stretching down the Appalachian Chain into the Gulf of Mexico and Jose in the Atlantic result in low level north to northeast flow. As Jose moves toward New England the Gulf ridge flattens and builds eastward while the Appalachian high pressure settles down into the Gulf and across FL. High temperatures will be above normal by perhaps 2 to 3 degrees while the lows hover within a degree or two of normal.
857 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 High pressure settling in over the region will support pleasant dry weather across the forecast area the remainder of today.
Strong High pressure is expected to redevelop across the area by mid-week. Surface analysis early this morning shows weak high pressure in place across the upper midwest and the deep south. Ample moisture remains in place across the area and Time heights show lift toward 12Z and good saturation within the lower and middle levels. with attainable convective temperatures in the lower 80s and again near 1500 J/KG of CAPE.
The subtropical jet is expected to weaken and shift south of our area while the polar jet carves out a deep trough over the western CONUS.
651 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017 219 AM CDT High pressure will build across the western Great Lakes today while the cold front that passed over the region yesterday settles over the Ohio Valley. East to northeast flow will help temper afternoon highs today, especially near Lake Michigan where onshore flow will keep temperatures only in the low 70s. Much better chances will be well to our west on the nose of the low level jet over the mid Missouri Valley overnight. Deubelbeiss 219 AM CDT Expect a warm pattern throughout much of the extended time frame as an increasingly amplified ridge takes hold over the Great Lakes and eastern CONUS.
1142 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 A decaying cold front could bring isolated showers this afternoon. Clouds associated with an approaching cold front are slowly making their way east. The weakest cap resides over the high terrain due to the elevated heat source and north of I-80. With the upper level pattern favoring ridging in the east and Jose moving closer to the coast, as well as deepening troughing in the west, fairly high speed SW flow will exist through most of the Midwest. One weak wave in the high speed flow will attempt again to impinge upon the region late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Fries A deepening upper trough in the west and retreating remnants of Jose will allow for heights to go through the roof in the eastern CONUS for the balance of the week.
Otherwise, the past few hours have been mainly dry as the cold front has moved southeast of the area, and there is no low level jet or upper level disturbance to concentrate forcing over the area. Later this morning, the front will move back north as a warm front. The chance will slowly decrease to slight chances overnight as the front moves off to the north and the upper trough moves east leaving the area under weak forcing.
Going to paint the higher rain chances to the north and south, where the forcing is more evident, lowering a bit between these. The GFS and EC are still in lock-step when it comes to the overall upper level pattern - carving out a long wave trough over the western U. with ridge building across the east. Stepping back a bit, there is a warm front with this system too, and it moves northeast across WI Tue night. For Thu, the models favor lifting the Wed night front northward as a warm front as the west coast trough continues to deepen. A short wave trough will bring a round of showers northeast through the region this morning and early afternoon.
Isolated convection will develop this afternoon mainly over E TX/N LA/SW AR, but the highest confidence attm to include VCSH is at LFK after 19Z, with any convection expected to diminish by early evening with the loss of heating. /issued 431 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017/ Water vapor imagery shows the upper ridge axis shifting east this morning with convection firing along a weak surface boundary still northwest of our region across central Oklahoma southward into extreme north Texas. This boundary is not expected to shift much more in our direction before slowly retreating northward as a warm front later today. The upper ridge axis will re-orient itself back across the region by late week and will keep daytime temperatures in the lower 90s for nearly all of the region.
1025 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017 A cold front is stalled out over the southeast corner of the forecast area this morning with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms just outside the forecast area. Highs today should range from 78 in Galesburg to 86 in Lawrenceville due to cloud cover and the slightly cooler air mass north of the front. Cooler and drier air has settled into the northwest tip of the CWA, with dew points near Galesburg down to 49 degrees, but still 58 at Peoria. An upper ridge over the eastern U. With the building ridge, precipitation chances will be shutting down. Any lingering showers/storms from Tuesday's upper wave will be diminishing by evening, then the ridge will start to build in earnest.
Whether the highs can reach the 70s or not will be dependent on how much sunshine can filter through times of cloudiness. Maliawco Previous Discussion: Synoptic Setup: Short term begins with a Ridge over Wyoming, eastern Montana, and Saskatchewan and a large trough over the coasts of British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest. Today: Ridge will exit eastern Montana allowing a clear to partly cloudy morning to turn into a mostly cloudy afternoon with mild to warm and dry conditions. Tonight through Tuesday: Ridge axis exits into the Dakotas by midnight allowing the trough to the west to gain influence. Highs by Tuesday should settle back into the 60s or about 10 degree cooler than today.
Based on the various model sounding forecasts from the GFS and NAM late today the highs this afternoon should be mainly in the 85 to 90 degree range. Early this evening there will be a slight chance for thunderstorms, mainly east/southeast of Dodge City based on instability and lift ahead of an upper level trough crossing western Kansas late today and north of a warm front that will be lifting northeast into southern Kansas.
Quiet weather remained in place over SoCal, with a broad longwave trough over the Western US.