Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Old trough remains draped across the forecast area this morning. but plenty of moisture remains north of the trough and diffluent upper flow still dominates the region. Trough settles into Central Georgia tonight and Wednesday with continuing chance POPs across the southern half of the forecast area and only slight chances at best across the north as drier airmass eventually works into that region. The eastern H5 trough will continue to have weak short waves moving rapidly through the flow. As the eastern trough flattens this weekend. a ridge of high pressure will build into the Gulf of Mexico spreading moisture into the Southeast U.
Within this unsettled pattern, a weak and diffuse surface trof oriented generally east-west over the forecast area is replaced by a weak cold front approaching from the north which moves into the area this afternoon, then moves to near the coast overnight. Highs today will be mostly in the lower 90s, except for around 90 well inland and near the coast. Lows tonight will be mostly in the lower 70s.
As upper ridging amplifies across the western CONUS the resultant pattern does raise potential for thunderstorm complexes spreading southeastward into the area.
736 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016 A cold front will approach from the northwest through Wednesday, then stall across the area into the weekend.
1228 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016 Hydro A northerly flow of cooler air will prevail today here in Michigan as low pressure pulls off to the east. Tonight the clouds will thin out leading to a much cooler than normal night.
The mid/upper level ridge centered over the 4 corners will build to the SE at the end of this week and become centered over Texas.
Rest of the forecast is on track as we are still expecting scattered thunderstorms to develop across most of North and Central TX with the highest coverage expected to be along and south of I-20.
There will be a tendency for a low end VFR to be more persistent at DTW due to downsloping off the ridge, although a few patches of MVFR stratocu could make it in there as well. Daytime heating will then help lift ceiling during the afternoon before high pressure provides a clearing trend toward evening. The combination of forcing from the upper trough, moisture sliding into place, and steepening lapse rates will provide a small chance for showers early this morning and into the afternoon. Moisture axis will also shift east with the exiting upper trough axis this evening, allowing skies to clear overnight. Most noticeable difference in sensible weather today will be cooler temperatures in the post-frontal airmass.
NW wind will veer to northerly as high pressure builds in. The combination of forcing from the upper trough, moisture sliding into place, and steepening lapse rates will provide a small chance for showers early this morning and into the afternoon. Moisture axis will also shift east with the exiting upper trough axis this evening, allowing skies to clear overnight. Most noticeable difference in sensible weather today will be cooler temperatures in the post-frontal airmass.
602 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016 Thunderstorms have developed early this morning across south central NE/north central KS in the vicinity of an elevated cold front that stretches from northern KS into central MO.
High pressure over the region will result in continued very warm and dry inland conditions through midweek. A 595 DM high pressure ridge centered over the 4 corners region will result in another round of warm inland temperatures today. These above average temperatures come despite the region at the onset of a cooling trend today as the synoptic pattern dominated by the aforementioned high pressure ridge begins to weaken. Temperatures today should run a few degrees cooler than yesterday for most areas.
CAMS still keep the activity just to the west, but with the ridge axis shifting a bit further east could see an isolated storm make it into west central/SW Iowa.
Upper level high pressure centered over southern Utah early this morning with low pressure moving south into the Great Lakes.
Currently the National Hurricane Center gives this tropical wave a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next two days and high chance over the next 5 days.
Over the next seven days larger scale surface pattern will be dominated by broad area of low pressure covering the Great basin and southern Rocky Mountain region and large area of high pressure to the east.
0 inches) can be seen on water working up from Mexico into the southern Great Lakes between a large upper high over the southeastern U. and an upper trough sinking from central Canada into the Northern Plains. Some of the higher-res guidance then suggests that instability will struggle to recover enough to support much in the way of thunderstorms later in the day, while other runs support enough recovery for strong storms. This should allow for an increase in mid/high level cloudiness by late in the day, with GFS/NAM model forecast soundings keeping the lower levels dry.
315 AM MDT THU AUG 25 2016 While moisture remains about average for this time of year, an upper level trough will continue to slowly move over the area. This trough will bring some cooling aloft which will cause some destabilization this afternoon and evening so expect another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The trough doesn't move much and will remain the focus of our weather into Friday with more of the same expected.
Line of showers associated with pre-frontal trough will move across the Alleghenies early this morning before weakening to the east of RT 219/I-99. There is increasing confidence in a dry Friday, as all models now push dying cold front southeast of the region by 12Z Sat. Main effect of fropa will be to lower humidity, as GEFS 8h temps remain above normal behind front, likely supporting max temps from the low 80s across the nw mtns, to around 90F in the Susq Valley. Center of subtropical ridge over the southeast conus is progged by all models to migrate northeast to the Mid Atlantic by this weekend.
403 AM MDT THU AUG 25 2016 Broad upper trough over the area today, with additional energy dropping into the Great Basin this afternoon poised to swing eastward toward the state tonight. The trough over the Rockies will continue to bring us unsettled conditions through the early part of the weekend. then expect a gradual drying and warming trend as high pressure builds from the west. Temps over the Plains will slowly be rebounding into the low to mid 80s for Fri, and possibly into the mid-uppr 80s by Sat.
High High pressure will likely bring pleasant weather to southern Wisconsin on Friday.
A cold front will move through on Thursday but upper support is weak.
325 AM MDT THU AUG 25 2016 A mid/upper trough axis stretched NE-SW from Hudson Bay Canada through North Dakota, Montana, Idaho and Oregon. Another trough extended N-S from eastern Colorado through southern New Mexico. A ridge was centered over the southeast CONUS. The short range model guidance consensus progs the mid/upper trough axis to the west to gradually shift east across the northern/central Rockies and plains during the next 24 to 36 hours. Cannot rule out a few strong thunderstorms producing hail up to one inch and strong/gusty winds across the high plains. Shower/thunderstorm coverage decreases markedly Friday night with passage of the trough and influx of drier/more stable air.
Low temperatures will be similar to last night perhaps a few degrees warmer. Strong upper ridge centered offshore will result in continued northerly flow aloft Thursday with sunny skies. Scattered cumulus will develop over the higher terrain again during the afternoon.
Upper air analysis last evening showed south to southwesterly flow over Texas with a ridge to the east and a trough to the west. Water vapor satellite imagery showed mid-level moisture moving into Texas around the back side of the ridge over the southeast. At the surface, high pressure over the Gulf was keeping winds from the southeast. In the short term the upper level ridge over the southeast will shift to the northeast, but heights over Texas will stay about the same.
Repeated upper-level troughs that emerge from the northern and Canadian Rockies will keep the relatively cooler air mass in place over northeast Montana over the next few days. The next most prominent trough passage expected to bring some precipitation to the area will be on Friday.
The low over eastern Idaho will continue to weaken and slide east through tomorrow. Another round of isolated showers and storms is possible again tomorrow due to what's left of the trough remaining over the state.
159 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 Showers and thunderstorms are possible through Thursday ahead of a slow moving cold front as weak upper level systems move across the area. Lows tonight will be in the lower to middle 70s with highs Thursday in the upper 70s to middle 80s.
Today Through Friday night An upper ridge centered over the central Gulf Coast will continue to weaken today, allowing a plume of tropical moisture. Between the moisture-rich atmosphere and the weakening ridge, showers and thunderstorms over central and southeastern parts of the state seem to be a lock.
1205 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016 Well-advertised cold front is currently draped across southeastern NE into west-central IA, aiding in blossoming up convection. Ridging to the south and east is allowing for perturbations to ride its periphery right across the local region and southerly to southwesterly flow to allow for a continued source of moisture advecting in.
Locations near Lk Sup wl be even warmer. Skies will clear through the day as warmer and drier air moves in. Expect winds to veer to the W following a cold frontal passage tonight, with wind speeds over the W half up to 25 to perhaps 30 kts on Thu.
Currently temperatures are running a few degrees cooler than 24 hours ago, with readings mainly in the 50s. High pressure aloft over the Eastern Pacific will weaken as an upper trough edges southwestward from the Northern Rockies. As a result, today will be warm like yesterday, but slightly cooler temperatures are expected beginning on Friday.
An unseasonably cool upper trough was swinging through the northern Rockies/Plains this morning.
Water Vapor Satellite/WSR-88D Vad Wind Profiles center an upper level ridge over Middle Tennessee and Northern Alabama early this morning. Low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is advecting north on the back side of the ridge up into the Lower Mississippi Valley. This is resulting in a continuation humid air and surface dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s. Southerly winds on the back side of high pressure will continue to bring moist air up into the Mid South today.
Guidance temps were good mid 70s/lower 90s, the east may be warmer, but drier air was moving into the area, dewpoints will be on decline through Friday so will hold off any heat advisories.
The high pressure over the southeast will weaken the trough moving through and it will become very diffuse on Friday as it slips south toward the Mason Dixon line. Temperatures and humidity will be on the rise with 90F heat likely returning to the Lower Susquehanna Valley by Friday and through the weekend.
A low pressure trough will drop out of the Pacific northwest and into the northern Great Basin on Thu.
304 AM MDT THU AUG 25 2016 Upper level trough over eastern Colorado will move east of the state this morning. Subsidence behind the trough is resulting in clearing over much of Colorado this morning. Westerly flow aloft will prevail through tonight behind the exiting trough over the Central Plains and the approaching trough currently over southern Idaho. Models in decent agreement that scattered thunderstorms will form over the higher terrain ahead of the and move eastward through the afternoon and evening hours. Lift associated with the trough is expected to produce scattered showers and few thunderstorms through the evening and overnight hours, so will keep the pops going through the night.
/Issued 342 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016/ 500MB high pressure centered near the MS/AL border is expected to drift up the Appalachians this short term period. With the upper high drifting up the Appalachians on Friday.
Storm motions on the low end though this afternoon, generally under 10kts, so we could see some moderate to heavy rain showers at some location. But forecast soundings and latest HRRR output keeping stratus chances on the low side.
However, due to the low probability for convection today, kept any mention out of the forecast.
Broad high pressure is over much of the Gulf. The ridge will remain in control through the short term, though it may weaken slightly and shift northeast a bit on Thursday.
Additional showers and thunderstorms approaching the western and north central counties as another larger wave lifts northeast ahead of the main upper trof. Have leaned toward the lower amounts but worth noting here of the risk of some locally higher amounts.
We look ready set go to see some decent coverage of rain again today with a tropical plume of moisture overhead rotating in under the Bermuda ridge. The GFS and Euro are similar on any path with Euro still much deeper and stronger on the low.
/issued 226 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/ An upper trough is over the southern Rocky Mountains with upper ridging over the southeast conus. The upper trough lifts slightly northward on Thursday resulting in a little less lift over the area and less low level moisture. Precipitation will mostly remain confined to the higher terrain and surrounding plains with highs perhaps a couple of degrees cooler than the previous day.
/issued 900 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016/ High pressure surface and aloft to the north of the state will maintain a moderate northeast to easterly wind flow over the entire forecast area the remainder of tonight. High pressure north of the waters will maintain a northeast to east wind flow over the Gulf waters the remainder of tonight with winds in the 10 to 15 knot range near shore and around 15 knots offshore with seas of 2 to 4 feet.
A ridge of high pressure will remain over the Southern Appalachian region today. The position of the surface through 85h ridge will allow for the advection of higher dewpoint air into the forecast area. However, the best chance for a cooling shower or thunderstorm will be over the higher terrain on the plateau and over the mountains bordering North Carolina with little chance for rain across the Great Valley.
High pressure will keep dry weather over the area through the first part of the period. A few showers developed this evening in northeast Louisiana on the back side of the high pressure area. An upper level ridge axis. A cold front will approach from the northwest on Friday.
148 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 Aviation A low pressure system moving slowly through the Great Lakes region will bring scattered showers and a few thunderstorms through Thursday afternoon. High pressure will build in and bring fair weather Thursday night through Friday night.
This looks to continue into the early evening hours before an increase in moisture moves across the southern half of the area from southern Colorado around midnight associated with the approach of an upper trough. On Thursday the upper trough and better moisture slowly move east through mid to late afternoon before ending late in the day. If it verifies temperatures across the southern half of the area would be much cooler given extensive low cloudiness and a bit better chance of precipitation. H5 trough digs in across the region Thursday night, bringing slgt chc PoPs to the CWA overnight into Friday morning.
651 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 A slowly approaching cold front, will bring a couple of rounds of showers and thunderstorms, one this morning, and another this evening.
850mb pocket of cold air +6C now moving into the base of the trough. An upper trough within the northern stream currently located over central Alberta is moving southeast with time.
216 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 High pressure will give way to a storm system sliding out of the Great Lakes. The cold front will only slowly slide across the FA through Thursday evening, keeping a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms across most of the region through early Friday morning. Cold front will be departing early on Friday with models showing some discrepancy in the timing by 12Z.
With the upper level ridge shifting slightly to the north, higher moisture over the western Gulf of Mexico will move into the area over the next couple of days. Low level flow will be more easterly each day and should lead to slightly cooler maximum temperatures for coastal areas.
658 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 A slowly approaching cold front, will bring a couple of rounds of showers and thunderstorms, one this morning, and another this evening.
149 AM MDT THU AUG 25 2016 Upper low spins over southern Manitoba, with trough stretching across much of the ConUS. At this surface, high pressure is moving into the region from the northwest. Initial trough will dissipate into westerly flow today, while a secondary trough sets up over the Rockies. Cool 850 mb airmass will keep highs below average today, ranging from the 60s across the Black Hills and northeastern WY to the lower 70s across south central SD. Chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms will increase tonight, as upper trough begins to move across the northern plains. Thermal ridge will start moving toward the region, and temperatures will warm slightly into the 70s.
/Issued 346 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016/ Upper air analysis shows a shear axis/trough roughly situated across the Interstate 20 corridor this afternoon. Even though the airmass will remain very moist, high pressure aloft and at the surface will dominate the weather pattern. Long range models still in good agreement through Friday with a strong mid to upper high pressure ridge dominating the southeast.
536 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 Another active night for the waters near the Florida Keys, as showers and thunderstorms have been developing south of the Lower Keys and north of the Middle Keys. A high pressure in the mid levels over southeast United States and stretching at the surface from the southeast to the northwest Atlantic this morning has kept winds from the northeast locally, bringing with it moisture and an upper level trough instability.
Sunshine to give way to increasing mid and high level cloud cover Friday as next short wave trough moves into the area.
Otherwise, drier and cooler conditions will be expanding across the state. Low pressure will move along the U. The associated trough axis will extend southwest back towards Nevada. The axis of the trough will limit the northerly flow of moisture. The low pressure trough will shift east and shut off the moisture supply to central Nevada.
300 AM PDT THU AUG 25 2016 High pressure aloft combined with low level offshore flow will produce unseasonably warm dry weather through Friday.
This will manifest itself into lesser chances for showers this afternoon and temperatures running a few degrees warmer, though still well below normal for late August. Additional warming is anticipated on Friday with a few late day showers along the Continental Divide as the upper level trough exits the region.
308 AM PDT THU AUG 25 2016 High pressure aloft will keep mostly clear skies and near normal temperatures over the region today, followed by cooler temperatures into the weekend as a weak upper level trough of low pressure moves in.
344 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016 (Today and Tonight) The upper level high over the southeastern CONUS will essentially remain in place, but the center of the high will shift slowly northeast across the Tennessee Valley. Expect less of a diurnal cumulus field today with a little drier air in the lower levels by this afternoon. With a slight climb in 850mb temperatures, highs today should be about a degree warmer than yesterday. A weak upper level low over the Texas coast will drift into South Texas as well, aiding lift across the area.
359 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016 An upper level low/trough will lift east-northeast from southern Manitoba and the Northern Plains to northern Lake Superior and Ontario today. Expects gusts to around 20 mph, and highs ranging from the lower 60s across northern central Minnesota to the lower 70s across northwest Wisconsin. High pressure will move into the Northland, providing and clearer and cooler night. Southwest flow will develop Friday, bringing warmer air back into the region.
Latest upper air analysis shows that the center of the mid/upper level ridge as move to the northeast some and is over northern Mississippi/Northern Alabama area. Water vapor imagery shows moisture increasing over the forecast area as an easterly wave is moving westward around the ridge. Rua The upper level ridge will continue to move off to the northeast today into the weekend before becoming anchored over the Mid- Atlantic region. This will allow a series of easterly waves/upper level disturbances to move around the ridge into the forecast area.
An elongated 500MB trough extends all the way from northern Quebec through the northwestern corner of MN, to southern ID and northern CA.
Locations near Lk Sup wl be even warmer. Nam shows a deep trough over the western U. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the upper Great Lakes 12z Sun. A 500 mb ridge starts to build into the upper Great Lakes 12z Tue with a sfc front over the area 12z Wed. Expect winds to veer to the W following a cold frontal passage tonight, with wind speeds over the W half up to 25 to perhaps 30 kts on Thu.
Line of showers associated with pre-frontal trough will move across the Alleghenies early this morning before weakening to the east of RT 219/I-99. The high pressure over the southeast will weaken the trough moving through and it will become very diffuse on Friday as it slips south toward the Mason Dixon line. Temperatures and humidity will be on the rise with 90F heat likely returning to the Lower Susquehanna Valley by Friday and through the weekend.
Northerly flow continues into Friday as an upper trough remains positioned over the northern Rockies. Friday is dry and 2-5F degrees warmer across all of southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho.
Main feature tonight is the mid level low pressure creating widespread clouds and scattered showers. Wrap around moisture associated with the upper level low across southwest Manitoba will remain across western and central North Dakota through the evening and into the early overnight.
The showers are along a slow moving cold front with a vorticity maximum aloft. Thus high temps will be in the lower 80s. Weak cold advection will then prevail tonight with high pressure moving from the northern Great Plains to the Upper MS River Valley. Lows will range from the middle 50s nw CWA to the lower 60s in far se WI. High High pressure will likely bring pleasant weather to southern Wisconsin on Friday.
Its back to summer as high pressure aloft builds over the region. under the building upper high and warming aloft. look for warm and muggy conditions with lack of convection as the warm upper high continues to build. with upper ridging across the eastern U. with best chances across the higher terrain counties. Stubborn high pressure continues though begins to erode as a tropical system slides westward into the Gulf of Mexico. Maintained schc to chance PoPs for the dirty ridge.
Latest model guidance does not push the cold front as far south as previous runs, and already begins to lift it back north as a warm front on Friday.
In addition, a cold front in northwest Oklahoma is expected to slowly shift southward today; the cold front should enhance the convective potential in its vicinity. Heavy rainfall/localized flooding will also be a hazard as thunderstorms may train over the same locations as mid-level flow is expected to be quasi-parallel to the cold front. Beyond today, the mid-level/500 mb ridge is progged to stay to our east through the forecast period.