Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The synoptic pattern this morning is characterized by a 500mb ridge over the central and northern High Plains with a trough extending from Virginia westward to the Mid-South region. As the 500mb trough to our north continues to move southward, so will the area of high pressure and shallow cold advection regime. Part of the upper trough is expected to be left behind and become closed off tonight into Sunday over North AL/GA. The low clouds are expected to create quite a temperature gradient from west to east across the CWA on Sunday.
1233 PM EST Sat Nov 12 2016 High pressure will build across the eastern U.
Once again, collaborated with FSD to lower MinT tonight in the James valley where it still appears the trough axis (light winds) will be located around 12Z Sunday morning.
Winds will remain light today at less than 10 knots as high pressure remains over the area. A dry front approaches the area later today/early Sunday and will tighten the pressure gradient with high pressure to the north which will increase the winds to around 15 knots, and some stronger gusts over the northern waters.
On the surface, high pressure over Florida will keep dry conditions over the area through Sunday. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees below average for tonight with overnight lows in the low to mid 50s over the inland counties and low to mid 60s along the coast. A weak cold front will be approaching from the north late Sunday bringing increasing moisture to the area. Zonal flow aloft over the region will transistion to an amplified upper air pattern as an upper level trough develops and amplifies over the eastern U.
1001 AM PST Sat Nov 12 2016 A cold front will produce gusty southwest winds today and bring a chance of showers this morning.
SYNOPTIC SETUP: Short term begins with high pressure aloft centered over the Montana/Dakota border which has spread its influence back into southern Saskatchewan. This evening through Sunday: Ridge axis to the east will topple over as the trough exits the front range and forms up a cold front. Cold front will move through overnight but also run into a surface inversion.
The overall pattern aloft shifts east by Sunday as a trough moves east of the Rockies and high pressure moves into the southwest U.
Main forecast concern in the short term lies with widespread freezing temperatures tonight as chilly high pressure settles in over the forecast region. Will go with freeze advisory entire region for several hours of sub-freezing from midnight to around 8 or 9 AM Sunday. This high pressure system will continue to control the region for the remainder of the short term, and temperatures should moderate a bit each day.
Weak upper level low pressure over Tennessee River Valley region today will drift east to northern Georgia tonight. As a result, a little more sunshine is expected today with slightly warmer temps (yesterday many locations did not get out of the 60s). At the surface, southern periphery of dry high pressure centered over the midwest states will persist. Low temperatures tonight ranging from the lower 40s over northern interior zones (which will be deeper into the dry high pressure ridge) to the mid 50s near the Gulf coast.
131 PM EST Sat Nov 12 2016 A pressure ridge will extend through the Ohio River Valley tonight and direct cold air into the forecast area. A pressure trough will develop off the Georgia and South Carolina coast tonight and remain in the area through Sunday.
1130 AM CST Sat Nov 12 2016 High pressure will continue to build over Arkansas. (ISSUED 1050 AM CST Sat Nov 12 2016 ) Dry air continues to move into Arkansas with high pressure.
For the overnight, MOS and SREF guidance hold temperatures across southern half of East Tennessee Valley well above freezing. Given development of upper level low over West TN and some increasing moisture aloft ahead of it as it tracks eastward tonight, felt radiational cooling would struggle to drop temperatures below freezing in these areas. Went with frost advisory for those areas and continued with freeze warning in drier air and region outside the immediate effect of the upper low. For Sunday, model handling of this upper low brings some slight chance POP over extreme eastern portion of the area. Although unlikely as it seems given the incredibly dry conditions in the low levels that need to be overcome, felt that there may be enough moisture introduced in the lower to middle levels that those areas may see some brief period of precipitation.
Upper level low near El Paso will lift out to the northeast today and Sunday with little fanfare as it has limited moisture to work with.
358 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2016 A weak cold frontal boundary sliding off the coast this afternoon with a light northeast breeze and increasing mid to upper level cloudiness from the southwest. The weak upper low over the Texas Panhandle is modeled to develop into an open wave trough tomorrow. this trough deepening over the eastern U.
346 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2016 Upper level low has continued weakening though current IR SAT shows the center has not progressed as far eastward as last couple model runs have suggested. Overnight lows tonight will be a little more mild with increased dewpoints and ridging aloft filling in behind the exiting low. Height rises and downsloping of westerly component winds will also help lift temps up into the upper 60s on the Caprock and into the low 70s across the Rolling Plains.
Overall the latest model guidance depicts this well and have sided with the cooler end of bias correct guidance. Updated low temperatures for tonight/Sun morning look to be below freezing in almost all locations.
High High pressure will continue to head southward tonight into Sunday as a trough approaches.
A weak storm system and associated cold front continues to move through north central Idaho and western Montana this afternoon. The system will exit tonight, with a weak ridge of high pressure building in its wake.
High pressure aloft centered over the Montana/Dakota border spreads its influence back into far southeastern Alberta this morning. This is creating dry conditions and clear skies and delaying an incoming trough over Idaho until later tonight. The high cloud deck associated with the incoming trough should be visible by the end of the day when it starts to firm up a cold front for overnight passage in the lee of the front range. GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: The upper flow pattern this morning over Northeast Montana consists of an upper-level ridge with westerly winds aloft. There is a large trough/storm system located in the Gulf of Alaska. This wave will ride over the ridge, flattening it late tonight. Then the upper ridge rebounds from the west late Sunday.
\Meanwhile, a weak col on the back side of this blocking high will remain over the forecast area.
246 PM EST Sat Nov 12 2016 High pressure will build across the eastern U.
However, high density snow and surface temperatures still above freezing in many mountain areas likely not allowing much accumulation until later this evening when the Winter Storm Warnings go into effect. Max temperatures Friday are expected to moderate to above normal at most locations within our CWA ahead of the cold front. Cold front still looks to enter NW corner of our CWA in NE Utah Friday afternoon and then gradually spread southeast across our CWA through Friday evening.
529 PM CST Thu Dec 15 2016 Sfc ridging has moved well east of the Four State Region and as a result. Sly flow has returned across much of TX/OK to our w, and will spread ewd into our region this evening and overnight, as low pressure deepens across the Southern Plains. Temperatures will top out some 15-20 degrees warmer for Friday, as strong WAA continues ahead of an approaching upper disturbance.
916 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2016 Building high pressure should end any remaining snow showers north of Interstate 80 tonight, with dry weather elsewhere. A wintry mix of precipitation is expected with weekend low pressure. Any remaining snow showers north of I 80 should diminish this evening with building high pressure and backing winds. Otherwise, mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and some decrease in wind should result in cold temperatures tonight, with some locations already below zero in the ridges SE of PIT. Warm advection is projected to intensify late Friday ahead of a digging trough over the Upper Midwest, which will cause snow chances to increase as the warm front extends across the Upper Ohio Valley.
/issued 236 PM CST Thu Dec 15 2016/ There is a weak upper ridge over the western half of the country with northwest flow over West Texas and southeast New Mexico. Temperatures today are expected to be cooler than yesterday with highs ranging from the 40s across the Western Low Rolling Plains to the 70s across the Presidio Valley and Van Horn area. The eastern portion of the CWA is expected to remain cloudy today so will be cooler than the rest of the area. There is a chance of patchy drizzle and fog across the Lower Trans Pecos and Permian Basin tonight and Friday morning.
1026 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2016 High pressure over the Ohio Valley will build into Pennsylvania tonight.
310 PM MST Thu Dec 15 2016 Upper level analysis has broad trof across the east with broad ridge across the west. Another trof is diving south off the coast of BC. At the surface, arctic high resides across the Northern Plains and Midwest, with weak low pressure across the central and northern Rockies.
Dew points are in the low teens and skies are clear so temperatures will likely continue to fall slowly through sunrise. Morning lows may get to 15 in the coldest locations with most of us in the low to middle 20s. Latest surface analysis depicts strong arctic high pressure centered over northern Missouri, with resulting northerly surface flow over the local region. 21z H5 analysis depicts a longwave trough axis extending from eastern Canada southward along the Atlantic seaboard, with a ridge axis over the western half of CONUS. This will allow temperatures on Friday to be nearly 20 degrees warmer than Thursday highs.
524 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2016 Building high pressure should end the snow showers north of Interstate 80 tonight, with dry weather elsewhere. A wintry mix of precipitation is expected with weekend low pressure. Snow showers near and north of I 80 should diminish this evening under building high pressure and backing winds. Otherwise, clearing this evening and some decrease in wind should result in cold temperatures tonight, with some locations already below zero in the ridges SE of PIT. Warm advection is projected to intensify late Friday ahead of a digging trough over the Upper Midwest, which will cause snow chances to increase as the warm front extends across the Upper Ohio Valley.
The low levels in particular are drier than they have been during the previous few nights, which will prevent fog and low stratus from returning. High pressure is filling in north of the state in the wake of the recent cold front, allowing building northerly winds turning to easterly by Friday morning.
MVFR CIGS should prevail for much of tomorrow as a warm front moves onshore.
618 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2016 Cold high pressure will settle over the region tonight and Friday bringing well below normal temperatures. Moisture will increase Friday night into the weekend as a warm front develops and lifts northward bringing increased chances of precipitation.
Expect MVFR conditions to prevail this evening before IFR conditions develop late tonight into early Friday morning as a weak coastal low develops along the lower Texas coast/northeast Mexican coast allowing lower ceilings to develop as well as reduced visibilities with mist/light drizzle. With weak surface coastal troughing and overrunning, coverage should continue into the evening hours across mainly the Lower Rio Grande Valley as 850mb winds out of the south increase tonight atop northerly winds at the surface.
An upper level trough which originated This has resulted in tight southerly gradient and windy conditions over our CWA through this afternoon. There is still a window this afternoon when WAA increases that high temperatures above freezing can be achieved but the western 2/3 of our CWA appears likely to remain at or below freezing. Tonight-Friday: Upper level trough shifts eastward and pushes an arctic front south towards the plains by Friday morning. This results in a huge temperature spread with midday highs in the lower 30s in our north and lower 60s in our south, and falling temperatures by the mid afternoon. Cloud cover will also once again complicate high temperatures, and this lowers confidence in daytime high temps (particularly in our north and east). This layer is not deep enough for drizzle consideration, but freezing fog may develop.
1042 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2016 An upper-level composite analysis this evening reveals a deep layer mean anticyclone centered over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, with a ridge extending northward over the Rocky Mountains. An arctic high pressure area has shifted quickly eastward over the continental United States during the last 24 hours, and currently is centered over the Ohio Valley. A weak cold front will move through the Florida Keys overnight, and dissipate over the Straits of Florida on Friday.
645 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2016 High pressure over the Ohio Valley will build into Pennsylvania tonight.
A mid- to upper-level trough over BC and the Pac NW will continue moving eastward and its axis should extend southwestward from Central MB and over North-Central MT to Southwest ID by nightfall tomorrow. Lift and sufficient moisture ahead of this trough will allow periods of snow to persist, especially over Central and Southwest MT. Here, low- to midlevel frontogenesis ahead of the approaching trough combined with sufficient moisture and perhaps instability may yield one or several localized bands of heavy snow on Friday. At the surface, an arctic high pressure ridge will build south- southeastward from the Alberta plains into our CWA this evening through Friday, resulting in a reinforcing shot of frigid air.
High clouds streaming over the area may help hold temperatures up a few degrees, and so far a few spots are slightly warmer than forecast.
1017 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2016 High pressure over the Ohio Valley will build into Pennsylvania tonight.
Some relief from these cold temperatures is on the way tomorrow when this high pressure slides off the Atlantic seaboard and starts us into a strong southerly flow.
Falling temperatures will result in impacts to roadways over the higher passes soon if not already an issue. However, high density snow and surface temperatures still above freezing in many mountain areas likely not allowing much accumulation until later this evening when the Winter Storm Warnings go into effect. Max temperatures Friday are expected to moderate to above normal at most locations within our CWA ahead of the cold front. Cold front still looks to enter NW corner of our CWA in NE Utah Friday afternoon and then gradually spread southeast across our CWA through Friday evening.
Active aviation weather period this evening, freezing drizzle will continue for the first 2 to 3 hours of the period across central Oklahoma, impacting both KOKC AND KOUN. With south winds increasing overnight, temperatures will steadily climb back above freezing across the region, with drizzle and MVFR fog remaining possible. Freezing drizzle may develop later tonight at KPNC as well, as moisture increases. Kept temperatures in north central Oklahoma a bit cooler to account for lingering cloud cover.
531 PM CST Thu Dec 15 2016 Cold and mostly cloudy conditions continue across the region this afternoon, as Canadian high pressure slowly moves east into the lower Ohio River Valley. Winds will begin to increase this evening as that high moves further to the east and low pressure starts to deepen across the eastern plains of Colorado. Temperatures tonight will be several degrees warmer compared to this morning, especially over southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri, where readings will likely only fall to around 30 degrees. In addition to the (relatively) warmer temperatures and increasing southerly winds, moisture will slowly increase as well overnight into Friday morning. The good news is that at this juncture, it looks like temperatures will be above freezing on Friday morning before any precipitation starts to fall.
801 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2016 The 00Z MFL sounding showed northernly flow with limited moisture in the lower levels and dry air residing aloft. This afternoons surface analysis indicated a weak cold front draped east to west across the southern tip of Florida. As a drier and cooler airmass advects into the region, low temperatures will drop to around 70 degrees along the east coast metro and down to the upper 50s further west in Glades, Hendry and Collier counties.
A sharp drop in temperatures will follow, bringing sub-freezing temperatures across much of the Mojave Desert by the end of the weekend.
Latest hourly MOS Guidance is also showing warmer temperatures overnight and updated forecast to reflect warmer readings and increased cloud cover.
High pressure that led to a wind chill advisory this morning across the CWA was sliding to the east of the area today. With the ridge axis being east of the area, warmer air started to move into the area ahead of a winter storm for this weekend. Below zero temperatures have increased into the lower teens for the CWA. H5 flow turns zonal to southwest through the period advecting warmer air and a wave into the CWA.
959 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2016 Cold high pressure will settle over the region tonight and Friday bringing well below normal temperatures. Moisture will increase Friday night into the weekend as a warm front develops and lifts northward bringing increased chances of precipitation.
The 00Z sounding showed a dry and very stable atmosphere with a strong inversion in place in the lower to mid levels.
529 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2016 High pressure over the Ohio Valley will build into Pennsylvania tonight.
511 PM MST Thu Dec 15 2016 Upper level analysis has broad trof across the east with broad ridge across the west. Another trof is diving south off the coast of BC. At the surface, arctic high resides across the Northern Plains and Midwest, with weak low pressure across the central and northern Rockies.
406 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016 Low/mid level ridging will dominate area wx for the next several days bringing continued hot temps & minimal rain chances.
340 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 Low pressure wave will continue to move north and east through the mountains overnight with showers and a few heavy downpours. High pressure will bring dry weather for the remainder of the week. Mesoanalysis in the low to mid-levels show a lobe of precipitable water values above 1. Latest radar trends and mesoscale models indicate rain lingering in the higher terrain of WV until as late as noon Monday afternoon. Upper level ridge builds over the region through the short term period.
Closed low remains positioned over the Carolinas into mid-week. After a bit of relief yesterday with highs (Atlanta only made it to 78!) the warmer temperatures resume today. Lows will be a degree or two cooler Tuesday than today with mid to upper 60s across the CWA.
332 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 A weakening cold front settles over the local today.
416 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2016 A cold front will continue east clearing the Northland this morning. We limited the mention to just chance at this time, but some of the high resolution models show the showers more widespread and later updates may have to increase. Weak high pressure will lead to mostly clear skies tonight with lows into the forties with a few upper thirties possible. The west coast long wave trof will be the focus for our weather the next 7 days.
507 AM EDT Mon Sep 19 2016 Clouds and rain chances are expected to persist until final passage of a cold front later today. The convection-focusing front was analyzed as a semi-stationary boundary from Lake Erie, across Central Ohio, southward to the Lower Mississippi Valley this morning.
Have not mentioned VCTS in the SHV and E TX terminals as of yet given the low confidence.
256 AM MDT MON SEP 19 2016 A ridge of high pressure centered over New Mexico and Texas will continue to allow for dry and unseasonably warm temperatures over Colorado. Southwest flow aloft will prevail around an upper level ridge centered over Texas Tuesday. Moisture will start to increase late Tuesday as a short wave trough nears Colorado. This wave will bring moist air and the upper levels of the atmosphere, however the lower levels will remain dry and make it difficult for precipitation.
139 AM EDT Mon Sep 19 2016 Moisture associated with weak low pressure will move east tonight.
319 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2016 06Z surface data has a cold front running from northern Minnesota, into southeast South Dakota, and then across northern Nebraska. Based on projected temperatures/dew points, convection should initiate sometime between 2 and 5 PM along the cold front. However, data through 08z does not show this low having developed across Nebraska. This low is important in regards to the overall threat for any isolated tornadoes. Tonight, the cold front moves through the area.
High pressure over the region will maintain light flow with diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms over the next couple of days.
cooler temps aloft and low level trough axis from Coastal SE GA to the FL Big Bend will lead to a good chance of showers and storms again mainly during the aftn hours.
Temperatures will also be slightly cooler today than yesterday. The more active weather is expected to begin by midweek, when a larger scale upper level trough currently over British Columbia digs south and closes off over the Pacific Northwest.
However, we do expect the wind to shift through the day in response to the position of this low, from southerly early this morning, to westerly by mid morning, to northerly by early afternoon, easterly by this evening, and then southeasterly as we near dawn on Tuesday morning.
214 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 A deep plume of moisture will provide for clouds and showers lasting into Monday until the weak upper trough moves to our east. A large ridge to our southwest will slow provide above normal heights and temperatures to the region. Most of the week will be dominated by this ridge. The higher probability of rain/showers shifts eastward overnight.
As for temperatures much of the area dropped into the mid 70s before 7z and with dewpoints still in the lower to mid 70s not expecting temps to drop much more. The s/w currently moving through the region will push into the extreme sern CONUS eventually forming a closed low over GA and SC. This will send a backdoor cold front through the area late today or tonight. At the same time a ridge will build over TX and the srn Plains while also nudging into the Lower MS Valley. When this front drops into the region don't look for much in the way of cooler air, infact highs will still be very much summer like in the lower 90s.
/Issued 246 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016/ An upper level ridge will build over the panhandles early this week, keep temperatures above normal.
High pressure should build into the Carolinas late in the week, bringing dry weather and seasonable temperatures.
An upper level ridge of high pressure to the west of the state will expand over the next few days.
343 AM EDT Mon Sep 19 2016 High pressure will bring dry weather and above normal temperatures this week. Pcpn has ended as a H5 trof has pushed PVA into West Virginia. The boundary that the convection formed on will continue to weaken as a high pressure ridge builds into the region. With the sunshine, temperatures will warm to above normal with highs in the lower 80s.
149 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 Aviation A weak cold front will cut across the region Monday night.
1119 PM MDT SUN SEP 18 2016 High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern over the forecast area in the short term with mainly clear skies through the short term period. Heights will rise slightly through Monday as the ridge of high pressure slowly builds to our east.