Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WITH THE PATTERN LARGELY AFFECTED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS SPINNING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CANADA. IT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH. CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST.
444 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015 TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH A BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS AGAIN ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH A BIT OF FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE. A COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE HEAD OF THE ATCHAFALAYA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A GENERAL SE FLOW AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
PREDAWN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE LARGE SCALE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
617 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS. TOMORROW AFTERNOON A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA.
As of 17z, cold front was still just northwest of Quincy. Convection will continue to develop today, particularly across northeast and central MO and west central IL as upper level divergence increases with the approach of the broad upper level trough over the northern Plains, and the approach of the cold front. Heavy rainfall is possible with the storms due to high values of precipitable water ahead of the cold front.
LATEST CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING NNE ACROSS AL AND GA. A COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE TO OUR WEST.
222 PM MDT TUE SEP 8 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS NW FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES AND OVER OUR CWA ON WESTERN EXTENT OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH. EARLY IN THE EVENING STEEP LAPSE RATES LEE TROUGH REBUILDS ALONG KS/CO BORDER OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINING HIGH BL MOISTURE IN PLACE. BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN HAVE A SIMILAR UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH A TROUGH SITTING OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE US AND A RIDGE SITTING OVER THE WESTERN US.
Isentropic ascent is aiding in this rain with models showing the bulk of the light rain occurring before noon today as a warm front lifts north of the Canadian border allowing slightly drier air to move in from the southwest. Today's warmer afternoon temperatures and less precipitation should allow the ground to dry a bit.
222 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 A WEAK UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF THE TEXAS LOUISIANA BORDER WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS UPPER LOW HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST TODAY AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF.
EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS IN EASTERN KANSAS. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETTER CHANCES FOR SH AND TS WILL ENTER NW AR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
47 HIGH PRESSURE WAS HELPING TO PRODUCE SUBSIDENCE OVER SE TEXAS AT MID MORNING.
655 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT.
143 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015 MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL EVOLVE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS GOING FROM A BROAD TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE U. TO SHARP AMPLIFICATION OF A TROF ENVELOPING THE ERN CONUS WITH A HIGH PRESSURE DOME OVER THE WRN CONUS.
250 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015 TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S. TOMORROW WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME CHANGES ACROSS THE REGION AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ALOFT AND THE AIR MASS WILL BE TRENDING WARMER AND DRIER OVER THE FEW DAYS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
252 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
321 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COOLER WEATHER INTO THIS WEEKEND. PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL THEN TRANSLATE SLOWLY SE THROUGH THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A WELCOMED SHOT OF COOLER AIR AND DECENT RAIN/ISO THUNDER CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD AND DOMINATE THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
309 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015 COOLER AND DRIER AIR SETTLING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH. BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE HUDSON BAY WILL PLACE THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION WITH A RESULTANT DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER COLORADO.
150 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U. KEPT IN SOME POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND LOWEST IN THE NORTH AND THIS SHOULD MOVE OUT BY TONIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER MOVING IN LATE. BROAD TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
326 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT US THIS RECENT STRONG OF DRY AND VERY WARM DAYS WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST. ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
329 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS. TOMORROW AFTERNOON A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA.
18Z TAFS UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH INCOMING UPPER TROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR 12Z FORECASTS UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHEASTERN U.
257 PM PDT TUE SEP 8 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA THIS WEEK, LEADING TO VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LIGHT WINDS, DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
400 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BROUGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO EASTERN KENTUCKY THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN AND BEGIN MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT. WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. AS TROUGHING WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CONVERGED MORE ON THE SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT LOOKS TO CUT OFF ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE WEEKEND.
250 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015 A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER WAS OFF THE LA COAST WHILE A FAIRLY STRONG CDFNT EXTENDED FROM THE SWRN US THRU THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE ROTATING ARND THE UPPER LOW OFF THE LA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY.
337 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND BETTER THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ALOFT OVER THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL HELP KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING OVERNIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW UP TO ABOUT 700 MB AND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SOUTH OF THE FILLING NORTHERN MANITOBA LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS FROM DAKOTAS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. 8 TO 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO LAKE MICHIGAN. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL PROLONG DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
A cold front will move south into the region Wednesday, but it will be so late in the forecast period will not address this go around.
1238 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015 A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA WAS PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES OUT OF THE REGION.
258 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015 12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF RUNNING FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AN 850MB COLD FRONT RAN FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS HAS OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED CLEARING FROM MINNESOTA INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE MAIN FRONT RAN FROM THE LOW INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROF FROM SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI. COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ON WEDNESDAY AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. A WEAK PROGRESSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SWEEP THROUGH IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S NORTHEAST.
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SE TEXAS WAS BETWEEN A DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE SE LA COAST AND AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA LOCATED NEAR FAR WEST TX. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF WILL SHEAR OUT AS THE RIDGE OUT WEST WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND A WESTERLY TROUGH DEEPENS INTO THE GULF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.
530 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT US THIS RECENT STRONG OF DRY AND VERY WARM DAYS WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST. ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
Showers/thunderstorms will increase in coverage across northeast Oklahoma later this afternoon as a cold front gradually approaches. Expect an increase in coverage later this afternoon as cold front/outflow boundaries eventually work farther south into northeast Oklahoma.
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DISPLACED FARTHER WEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER/MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BUT THE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD WILL LIMIT OVERALL RAIN CHANCES SOMEWHAT. AS FOR THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK. DEEP LAYER RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK.
256 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT US THIS RECENT STRONG OF DRY AND VERY WARM DAYS WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST. ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
247 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015 THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HOLD STRONG THROUGH THE SHORT TERM KEEPING HIGHS RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO AVERAGES. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL NUDGE OUR SOUTHERN CWA THOUGH MODELS STILL DIFFER GREATLY WITH REGARDS TO PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM.
329 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015 An upper level trough was moving across the Northern and Central Plains this afternoon. Upper trough axis moving through could touch off some showers and storms behind the surface front and along the 850 mb front this evening and will keep a small chance of precipitation for the north this evening. Lows tonight will fall into the 60s for lows with cooler highs in the lower 80s on Wednesday.
SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG A PACIFIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS N CNTRL LA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HRS RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT TO CATCH UP WITH DRY LINE LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS ACROSS THE REGION BECOMING NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK.
511 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 The latest Aviation Discussion is included below, as is an update to let the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory expire. A cold front will drop south through the region tonight, but aside from shifting surface winds to the north, little else is expected. Will allow the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory to expire at 03/00Z since winds will begin to decouple and surface speeds decrease.
TRANSITORY RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH TO IMPACT THE REGION ARRIVES TO WESTERN UTAH.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH AMPLE SNOWMELT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN COMING INTO THIS EVENT SHOULD LIMIT THE QPF/RUN OFF POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLOODING CONCERNS. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE/MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEASTERLY MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTION WHICH WOULD PREFER A CRITICAL LEVEL ABOVE THE RIDGELINE HEIGHT. GUSTS WILL STILL BE LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. JUST NOT THE BREAKING WAVES INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTMORELAND/FAYETTE COUNTIES. COLD AIR DAMMING-TYPE SETUP WILL DELAY THE CROSSING OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KNOTS SLAMS INTO THE RIDGES OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW AND LINGERING MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED FOR GOOD CU DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COASTAL RANGES WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE WEATHER INTO WEDNESDAY AS WE REMAIN ON ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE RIDGE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH, KEEPING THE FORECAST RELATIVELY DRY AND SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED, THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S OVER THE INTERIOR/GULF COAST AND LOW 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE HIGHER THAN NORMAL LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR FOG IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT, AND POSSIBLY AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE FINAL WAVE LOCATED COINCIDENT WITH THE COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MARKED BY WIND SHIFT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
TO THE WEST THE MAIN UPPER TROF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE TX COAST THIS AFTERNOON PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH FORECAST AREA EARLY WED. THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN 150 KNOT UPPER JET IS ALSO NOTED OVER TEXAS PROGGED TO SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE LOWER MS RIVER BY 12Z WED. THE FOG THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER MOST INLAND AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING THOUGH MAY REDEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO THE FOG CONTINUING OVER THE COOLER NEAR SHORE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE WARMER MOS NUMBERS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.
627 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016 A DEEP CYCLONE OVER NORTHERN KANSAS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT CAUSING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LYRD CYCLONE OVR NRN KS THIS AFTN WILL OPEN EWD AND DEAMPLIFY SHRT TERM. SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING AS THERMAL TROUGH ADVECTS OVER THE AREA AMID LINGERING MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW. WINDS BACK TO THE SW BY THURS AFTERNOON WITH LOWERING INVERSION AS MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD. SOME LATE DAY WAA SHOULD PUSH HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOW 30S.
A DEVELOPING CYCLONE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH PRESSURE IS BEING CONVINCED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE CYCLONE'S TRAILING FRONT AND THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS FRESHENED BREEZES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND AREA COASTAL WATERS. WHILE LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE 5 KNOTS LESS DUE TO THE STABILIZING EFFECT OF COOLER SHELF WATERS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.
SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG A PACIFIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS N CNTRL LA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HRS RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST.
631 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION LATER TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AS H5 RIDGE AXIS CROSSES INTO EASTERN PA. THE COLD FRONT/OCCLUSION WILL BE ENTERING THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVER OVER 40 MPH POSSIBLE ON THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE LAURELS AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS. LONGWAVE TROF PATTERN IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES EARLY IN THIS WEEK. THE TROF IS FORECAST TO BE PROGRESSIVE.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE JET SUPPORT WHICH EXTENDS TOWARD WESTERN CANADA WILL PROVIDE FOR NEAR FREEZING CONDITIONS FOR ONE MORE NIGHT BEFORE THE RIDGE AXIS MOVE OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE WEST COAST.
609 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST KANSAS WITH ASSOCIATED OCCLUSION EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE HIGHEST OF 8 FEET REPORTED IN EUSTIS IN EASTERN FRONTIER COUNTY.
A COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING ACADIANA WILL MAINTAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SECONDARY SURGE OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO MOVE DOWN ON WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT BRINGING A SURGE OF COOLER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE HILL COUNTRY. WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THIS LOW INTO THE ARKLATEX WITH A PREFRONTAL SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. BELIEVE MANY AREAS WILL STILL REACH THE LOWER 60S. WITH THE SKY REMAINING CLEAR, FREEZING TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. /DL/ THE GENERAL POSITION OF THE UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL TEND TO ANCHOR A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS OVER THE ARKLAMISS FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
/ISSUED 312 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/ SURFACE MIXING HAS BEEN UNDERWAY FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW ACROSS THE REGION MIXING ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS RESULTED IN FAIRLY GUSTY WINDS TODAY. THE COLD FRONT IS AT THE EDGE OF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS OF 20Z. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT MAKING WAY FOR HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL CALM WINDS A GOOD BIT WITH THE LIGHTEST WINDS OCCURRING ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. LOWS BY TOMORROW MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S AREA WIDE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHICH WILL SEE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.
609 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE WEATHER INTO WEDNESDAY AS WE REMAIN ON ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE RIDGE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH, KEEPING THE FORECAST RELATIVELY DRY AND SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED, THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S OVER THE INTERIOR/GULF COAST AND LOW 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE HIGHER THAN NORMAL LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR FOG IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT, AND POSSIBLY AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
549 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST KANSAS WITH ASSOCIATED OCCLUSION EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE HIGHEST OF 8 FEET REPORTED IN EUSTIS IN EASTERN FRONTIER COUNTY.
MAIN ISSUE LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHT UPTICK WITH WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE SECOND COLD FRONT TOMORROW MORNING. WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW MIXING IN LOW DEWPOINTS (DOWN INTO THE TEENS) AND TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. COLD FRONT SWINGS EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS EVENING AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE KS/OK/NWTX THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ARRIVE IN SETX AROUND 2 AM WEDNESDAY NEAR CLL AND BE OFF THE COAST BY 8 AM OR SO.
COLD FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH MISSISSIPPI WILL APPROACH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK ACROSS FLORIDA. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE FRONT AND RIDGE WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST THAT CAN MAINTAIN AN ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW MAY EVEN STAY IN THE LOW 70S. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE FL PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TAKING A NEGATIVE TILT AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES. THE STRONG CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT BASED ON VIS/IR SATELLITE DATA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. A SNOW BAND MOVING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 ALONG HIGHWAY 283 COULD ALSO BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW UP TO AN INCH FOR NORTON AND HILL CITY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LOW CENTER MOVES EAST ENOUGH TO END THE SNOW THREAT.
900 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016 A COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS SLOW MARCH EAST TOWARD THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BLUE RIDGE AND GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAINS OF EAST TENNESSEE THROUGH 15Z. BEFORE THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT IN A 06-09Z TIMEFRAME ALONG THE PLATEAU. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 59 62 35 49 / 100 80 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 60 63 35 45 / 100 90 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 59 61 35 46 / 100 80 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 52 60 34 44 / 90 100 10 10 NC.
350 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TAKING A NEGATIVE TILT AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES. THE STRONG CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT BASED ON VIS/IR SATELLITE DATA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. A SNOW BAND MOVING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 ALONG HIGHWAY 283 COULD ALSO BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW UP TO AN INCH FOR NORTON AND HILL CITY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LOW CENTER MOVES EAST ENOUGH TO END THE SNOW THREAT.
629 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016 A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY EVENING.