Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
545 AM CST Mon Jan 1 2018 The low cloud layer has further eroded to the west, but remains tucked along the New Mexico-Texas state line with MFR ceilings reported in that area. Not expecting this layer to move back in, but enough moisture remains that we could see a few clouds from time to time at both KLBB and KPVW, in addition to the high clouds streaming overhead. The stubborn upper ridging that had been over the west coast of the United States will move over the Rockies this week.
High temperatures will likely struggle to get above freezing area-wide and windy conditions will make it feel 10+ degrees colder all day.
436 AM CST Mon Jan 1 2018 10Z / 4 AM surface analysis showed the center of a 1050 mb Arctic high pressure ridge centered near Omaha. The cold front that represented the leading edge of this Arctic airmass had passed through most of the Gulf of Mexico. The surface pressure ridge will expand eastward today, lowering the central pressure, and will reach the I-70 corridor of MO by sunrise Tuesday.
220 AM PST Mon Jan 1 2018 High pressure aloft will maintain fair and mild weather this week, with periods of high clouds, as patchy fog visits the coast each night.
The high will continue its slow progress southeast this evening and tonight and should be centered over central Missouri by 12Z Tuesday morning.
630 AM EST Mon Jan 1 2018 Aviation A strong area of high pressure in the Central Plains will build east today and up the Ohio Valley on Tuesday.
Since temperatures are below freezing over most of this area, think more icy conditions could occur, although accumulations will be on the light side. The High Wind Warning and Wind Chill Advisory will both remain intact. The lower clouds should erode from north to south thereafter. Expect the main forms of precip will be freezing rain and sleet due to an elevated warm layer. Latest model guidance is showing high winds through Guadalupe Pass lasting until around mid morning so have extended the High Wind Warning for the Pass until 15z. Temperatures today are expected to remain below freezing for areas along and east of the higher terrain with highs only in the 20s across the Permian Basin. Areas to the west and south will warm up above freezing on Tuesday.
550 AM CST Mon Jan 1 2018 Arctic high pressure remains over the region at 08Z with temperatures in the -10 to -20 range this hour. As the high moves off to the southeast Tuesday and Tuesday night another cold front moves through the area Tuesday night.
With an upper level ridge to our west, we will see a strengthening inversion in the valleys through the short term period. A few areas of low cloud are forming this morning, mainly in the Lower Treasure Valley, but also just getting into the Western Magic Valley.
504 AM EST Mon Jan 1 2018 Canadian high pressure will maintain very cold conditions through the week.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 26 10 30 15 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 23 5 27 11 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 25 5 26 11 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 20 2 24 7 / 10 0 0 0 NC.
633 AM EST Mon Jan 1 2018 Canadian high pressure will maintain very cold conditions through the week.
A cold front drops south across the eastern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon.
Temperatures will struggle, even with some sunshine through the high clouds, to climb out of the teens.
The slight lift is only in the lower 1500 feet of the sounding. High temperatures will likely struggle to get above freezing area-wide and windy conditions will make it feel 10+ degrees colder all day.
Radar shows precipitation from Central Texas to Western Texas and along the Highway 90 corridor to the Big Bend. Upper air soundings of last evening and forecast for today indicate a deepening below 0C layer in the lower levels from cold advection with a drier mid level with temperatures up to 5C, then a more moist below 0C layer above. Lacking a sufficient troughing, suspect warmer models will probably verify.
Affects from the 1050+ MB Alberta/Arctic high pressure has filtered into middle Tennessee.
A ridge will build near the area by mid-week resulting in a warming and drying trend.
An upper level ridge axis will remain nearly stationary over the central and northern Rockies overnight and Friday. NAM, GFS, and ECMWF all showing another upper level wave rotating around this upper ridge axis and out into the Central Plains on Friday, however subtle differences on timing and track does exist. Highs in the 80s still appear reasonable with the cooler temperatures in far southwest Kansas.
Slightly cooler temperatures are forecast for Friday and Saturday as a weak upper trough approaches the northern California coast.
Upper level ridge was over the area with short waves moving through the flow.
330 AM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017 High pressure aloft will continue dry weather today with near to slightly above average high temperatures.
925 hPa temperatures by 00Z tonight are around 1-2 degrees Celsius lower than yesterday, so afternoon highs should be a few degrees cooler, topping out in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows will drop into the lower to mid 50s.
645 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017 Today through the weekend looks mostly rain free, as high pressure builds down from Canada into the Great Lakes. Most lows will be in the low 60s. Saturday increasing sunshine with highs in the low and mid 70s.
Winds from the northeast will gradually shift from the east by early evening as this high pressure shifts eastward. With skies mostly clear overnight, diurnal cooling will drop low temperatures into the low to mid-60s.
Return flow around the high will be found across eastern Colorado, and this is where afternoon thunderstorm development is expected.
213 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017 The cold front has pushed into extreme southern Illinois early this morning. Despite this, not much further progress is anticipated today, as the partly-mostly cloudy skies at times will keep the lower levels from fully mixing out. A pretty quiet period is shaping up, as broad scale troughing stays in place over the eastern U. A gradual modification in air mass will result in temperatures returning to near normal after a few cooler days.
High pressure at the surface will be in the driver seat for the overnight and Friday.
In its wake mostly clear skies and cooler temperatures have settled in across the region. High pressure will bring comfortable temperatures and low humidities as highs are only forecast to top out in the middle to upper 70s with dew points in the 50s. This high will bring a cool night to the region as overnight lows sink into the lower to middle 50s, with a few readings in the upper 40s possible across far north- central Wisconsin. High pressure stays in control of the western Great Lakes on Saturday with pretty much a carbon copy of today. The main differences will be highs may be a degree or two warmer with less clouds as afternoon cumulus are expected to be less of an issue given a shallower mixing depth.
High temperatures this afternoon will warm into the upper 70s to low 80s, except cooler along the Great Lakes shorelines.
327 AM MDT Fri Jul 28 2017 High pressure ridging aloft will rebuild over Montana today and remain in place through this weekend.
549 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017 Most areas should be dry through this evening with continued below normal high temperatures only in the lower to mid 80s. An upper level ridge over the desert southwest is resulting in northwesterly mid to upper level flow across the central plains. Fairly strong influence of the upper ridge will be in place over the weekend.
SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): Latest model trends remain on track with the mid and upper level ridge indicated to expand across Texas the next 24-36 hours and beyond. As the atmosphere drys out and the ridge axis builds more directly overhead heights and thicknesses increase and 850mb temperatures inch upward into the 22-24C range which will translate to many locations exceeding 100 degrees both today and Saturday.
A cold front will press southward into Arkansas today, ending the chances for rain in the Ozarks. Look for cooler temperatures today with highs only making it into the middle 80s. For tonight, cooler weather is expected with lows falling into the middle 60s.
Water vapor imagery shows the weak upper low has drifted more to the west-northwest rather than west-southwest today. The mid to upper level ridge axis is expected to build southward into the region through the period.
Surface analysis reveals a weak 1012mb low over the border of northern OH/IN with a trailing NE-to-SW oriented cold front across the upper midwest. Closer to home, a warm front has moved east of the area resulting in the region being in the warm sector. Temperatures have varied a bit, with cooler temperatures in southern IN and northern KY in the low 80s where clouds and light showers have persisted through the day. and warmer temperatures down near the TN border where low 90s are being observed under a mix of sun and clouds. The cold front will begin entering northwestern portions of the CWA by tomorrow morning, and should clear the region by late afternoon.
420 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017 Early morning sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the nrn Gulf, maintaining a light mostly srly low-level flow across the region. Today looks like one last dry day across the forecast area as the ridge attempts to hold on, especially across the wrn portions. Expect some convection to develop to our northeast as capping begins to weaken thanks to the deepening ern CONUS trof, but for now have kept minimal POPs out of the area. Combined with dewpoints in the lower/mid 70s, expect heat index values to approach but stay just below the 108F advisory criteria.
422 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017 Most areas should be dry through this evening with continued below normal high temperatures only in the lower to mid 80s. An upper level ridge over the desert southwest is resulting in northwesterly mid to upper level flow across the central plains.
428 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017 An upper high over the Panhandles will remain through the weekend.
Period begins with the region under NW flow as the ern trof deepens and the upper ridge remains locked in place over the Southern Plains. NW flow is expected to continue thru the end of the forecast period as the upper ridge is slowly broken down by a number of s/w that round the top of the ridge. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: Still a challenging ceiling forecast tonight due to lingering low- level moisture near a passing cold front.
High pressure to expand across Deep South Texas the next 24 hours increasing subsidence and gradually drying out the atmosphere. /issued 241 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): Mid level ridge builds into the region while an inverted upper trough continues to shift westward across Mexico. Temperatures running a little warmer than anticipated out west today, so bumped up max temps across portions of the upper valley and ranchlands a couple of degrees for this afternoon. RH values fall into the lower to mid 20s across the western zones tomorrow afternoon, but 20 ft winds remain below 15 mph, and should preclude any significant fire weather concerns.
1125 PM MDT Thu Jul 27 2017 There is a weakly unstable air mass in place across the central High Plains today in the wake of yesterday cold front. The missing ingredient for thunderstorms is forcing, with no surface features and ridging aloft. Nonetheless, might see a few storms drift into northeast Colorado later tonight off the Cheyenne Ridge, however they will be weakening by that time and will dissipate after midnight. Will go ahead and carry some patchy fog overnight and early Friday morning with the high dew points and light upslope winds. On Friday, the upper ridge retrogrades just enough to allow the central Plains to get under more of a northwest flow aloft.
While temperatures in the northern half of the state will be cooler today, the cooler and drier air is still well north of Arkansas.
/Issued 827 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017/ A cold front continues to sink southward through the Ohio Valley this evening into the overnight hours. Convection will increase again across north GA after daybreak as the aforementioned cold front approaches north GA. A more active day is expected on Friday as the aforementioned cold front approaches the region. This cold front will bring increasing thunderstorm chances especially across the northern half of the area as it moves southward. Short wave moving across southern Canada will dig into the eastern trough and develop a closed low over the Delmarva Peninsula. This will push the cold front into south Georgia by Saturday.
A beauty of an inverted trough generated an impressive convective complex over southern Sonora last night, now reinforcing a nice surge up the gulf this morning. We'll see a complex in northern Sonora late today and this evening with outflows pushing into our area as the inverted trough lifts a little further north.
The main "cold front" is stalled further north, into southern Kansas where temperatures drop from high 80s into the 70s. Showers and thunderstorms will continue in the forecast through the extended as the upper level high begins to reform further to our west with a more pronounced trough over the eastern half of the CONUS.
One more day of showers and storms is in store for the region, then a change to cooler and drier weather for the weekend. The cold front bringing this change is currently just to the north of the forecast area, stretching across central IN. Dewpoints will fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s tonight with lows in the lower to mid 60s. Aloft we will have ridging to the west and troughing to the east.
Slightly cooler temperatures are forecast for today and Saturday as a weak upper trough approaches the northern California coast.
The cold front itself should come thru central AR around daybreak, and will start to usher in the cooler and drier air we have been mentioning for several days. Certainly a nice cool down for late July, and this will be especially apparent with the lower dewpoints, although the driest air will not arrive until the extended term.
504 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017 Hot & mostly dry wx will persist going into Saturday with upper ridging remaining in control. Lower PW's and warmer 850/700mb temps should keep rain chances quite limited. Similar conditions are expected Saturday, with temps maybe a degree or two warmer considering a llvl sw flow in place.
High pressure will keep light winds and seas over the coastal waters for Friday and Saturday, with no headlines expected.
/Today through Tonight/ Very little going on in the short term today with high pressure dominating the area through the period. Slightly cooler temperatures in place aloft today, so expect highs to top out a few degrees cooler.
Fair skies over the CWA this morning under upper southwest flow between high pressure aloft over the southwest U. and weak trough off the north coast. Upper trough forecast to lift to the northeast today. Upper ridge over southwest U.
Temps will reach the mid 90s in the lower valleys today, and settle in around 100 tomorrow. There is sufficient moisture and instability for isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, and again tomorrow, mainly over the higher terrain.
253 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017 One more day of showers and storms is in store for the region, then a change to cooler and drier weather for the weekend. The cold front bringing this change is currently just to the north of the forecast area, stretching across central IN. Dewpoints will fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s tonight with lows in the lower to mid 60s. Aloft we will have ridging to the west and troughing to the east.
Today through the weekend looks mostly rain free, as high pressure builds down from Canada into the Great Lakes. Most lows will be in the low 60s. Saturday increasing sunshine with highs in the low and mid 70s.
1112 PM MDT Thu Jul 27 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over eastern MT, with frontal boundary stretching southeast into far western SD. Weak high pressure is centered over northeast ND. Upper level analysis shows weak ridging over the high plains, with trough off the pacific NW coast. Skies are variably cloudy across the area with temps mostly in the 80s over areas where it has been dry, cooler over rainy areas.
528 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017 The cold front has pushed into extreme southern Illinois early this morning. Despite this, not much further progress is anticipated today, as the partly-mostly cloudy skies at times will keep the lower levels from fully mixing out. A pretty quiet period is shaping up, as broad scale troughing stays in place over the eastern U. A gradual modification in air mass will result in temperatures returning to near normal after a few cooler days.
204 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017 A cold front will sag southward across the region this evening as low pressure moves eastward across the lower Ohio Valley.
215 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017 Upper level high pressure centered across the southern high plains and southern rockies will remain nearly stationary and be the main weather influence through Saturday night. High temperatures are expected to be a few degrees above normal with the upper ridge dominating through Saturday.
In the forecast area, showers have struggled to move south of the Highway 82 corridor as mid level ridging continues to have the strongest influence. Expect better moisture/flow to shift south later this afternoon and tonight into the ArkLaMiss region ahead of a cold front, and this will support the potential for multicell storms with a few strong/severe storms as hot/humid air provides plenty of instability in spite of ordinary mid level lapse rates. /EC/ A cold front will continue its southward trek through the forecast area during the course of the day on Saturday.
246 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017 216 AM CDT Weak secondary cold front will continue to move slowly south across the area this morning, with some models hinting at some isolated showers or sprinkles south of the Kankakee River this morning. Otherwise, modestly brisk northerly winds are expected today with dewpoints a good 10F+ lower than yesterday with temps in the same ballpark or a bit cooler.
High pressure will build into the region, resulting in a beautiful end to the work week.
558 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017 216 AM CDT Weak secondary cold front will continue to move slowly south across the area this morning, with some models hinting at some isolated showers or sprinkles south of the Kankakee River this morning. Otherwise, modestly brisk northerly winds are expected today with dewpoints a good 10F+ lower than yesterday with temps in the same ballpark or a bit cooler.
High pressure remains in control through the weekend with dry weather and seasonably cool temperatures expected. Clouds will be on the decrease all day with high pressure ridging into the North Country. Going into the overnight, upper level low pressure digs southeastward from the Great Lakes, remains well south of our area. Will again see fog formation overnight with surface ridging continuing and setting us up for a decent radiational cooling night, despite some high clouds possible in our Southern zones. Lows Friday night will be a bit cooler than seasonal normals, mainly 50s. More surface ridging for Saturday, as well as some upper level ridging will provide mainly sunny skies after morning fog lifts and temps a bit warmer than Fri, generally lower to mid 70s.
Blended current obs with high res forecasts yielding overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. At the surface, low pressure continued to develop in the Lee of the Rockies, with high pressure over Manitoba, the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. Earlier development in southeast MT and northeast WY was associated with the latter cluster of impulses, and recent development from southeastern Montana through northeastern Wyoming to the Black Hills of South Dakota was tapping into the higher CAPE and bulk shear, along with enhanced mid-level lapse rates.
This will be a very progressive upper flow pattern, with most of the rainfall associated with lift ahead of the upper trof axis. The cool front will lag the upper trof axis with the actual surface front not forecast to move into the northern counties of central Alabama until the 9 pm to midnight time frame. Widespread rainfall expected across areas along and north of I-20 today due to PWAT's over 2 inches and forcing ahead of short wave trof, but the models are showing a wide range of QPF amounts.
An upper level trough over the NE Pacific will maintain onshore flow with areas of low clouds night and morning low clouds, especially near the coast and locally inland, through much of the weekend. An upper level ridge over the southwest U.
Showers and thunderstorms with the low combined with the East coast sea breeze will keep the highest rain chances in the eastern third of the CWA. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s away from the coast. The weakness that has been situated over the area the past few days will wash out as an upper low over the Great Lakes region slides southeast. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s.
The northeast flow across lake Michigan will diminish somewhat late as the center of the high builds in.
Storms will refocus on the Pine Ridge later this morning and into the afternoon. timing of the next wave to come across the ridge to the west is main focus. Mostly cloudy today with cooler temperatures than yesterday. Upper level ridge axis will slowly migrate westward from the central Rockies to the Great Basin this weekend. This will largely allow for northwest flow aloft across the high plains, which is shown to at times direct weak disturbances through. At the surface, high pressure will dominate the Great Lakes and Missouri Valley with general easterly to southeast flow for much of the Sandhills region.
Cote' 06Z TAFS: A cold front exits east in the westerly flow, while a a couple weak disturbance ride in from the west.
After 6Z, a fairly weak LLJ and theta-e ridge may be enough to develop elevated convection across the western CWA. Another round of LLJ/theta-e ridge showers and thunderstorms could again occur overnight into Saturday morning.
The cold front that tracked through central Indiana yesterday will move farther southeast into the Tennessee Valley today. However, there will be some lingering showers and thunderstorms this morning until the associated upper low moves east of the forecast area.
333 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017 The period begins with an upper level trough continuing to dig SE across the east coast through a good portion of the week. The best reflection of below normal heights for this time of year reside in the 700 to 850 mb levels at 3 plus standard deviations below normal giving way to the aforementioned cooler temperatures, and lesser but still noticeable at the 500 mb level at around 2 standard deviations below normal. Also a upper level trough will sink SE toward the Ohio Valley leading to better chances of POPs.
1217 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017 203 PM CDT One more afternoon of muggy conditions will come to an end as a large area of high pressure builds southeast into the midwest tonight. Ahead of the high weak upper level forcing atop the moist low level airmass has led to a few showers this afternoon along and north of the surface boundary across central IL, with some occasional gusty winds. KMD 1219 PM CDT High pressure expected to slowly build across the region through the weekend. Rodriguez High pressure will remain anchored over the western Great Lakes with little movement over the next 24-30 hours resulting in fairly steady state conditions across northern Illinois and northwest Indiana. High pressure will finally build overhead, allowing the northerly winds to diminish through the remainder of the weekend.
343 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017 A cold front will approach from the northwest tonight, and cross our region late Friday night. The 00Z GFS/NAM continue to indicate a solution in which the upper level low stalls/meanders along the Carolina/Mid-Atlantic coast for the remainder of the weekend.
At the surface, high pressure was over the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota, with broad low pressure in the Lee of the Rockies from Alberta/Saskatchewan south to Colorado.