Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
708 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015/ THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND DIG SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EVENING HOURS. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA JUST AFTER 18Z. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY SATURDAY MORNING AND PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE MARITIMES ON SATURDAY.
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER EAST COAST METRO AREAS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL DEEPEN TODAY INTO SATURDAY PUSHING THE HIGH SOUTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS UPPER TROF. COMBINED WITH AN UPPER TROF SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE AT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK TROF AXIS EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE LOW WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SO DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER RETURNS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ALONG A COLD FRONT. THINK THAT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LESS GIVEN THE LOWER INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 94 72 85 63 / 50 70 80 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 92 71 82 61 / 40 70 80 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 91 70 81 62 / 50 80 80 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 88 70 80 56 / 50 80 80 30.
928 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015 WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WEAKENING TODAY. /ISSUED 324 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015/ A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL DEEPEN TODAY INTO SATURDAY.
THE COLD FRONT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. 17 EXTENDED PERIODS MARKED WITH MORE DYNAMIC PATTERN AS UPPER TROUGH RETURNS TO THE AREA. AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE SATURDAY.
440 AM PDT FRI JUN 26 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS TODAY.
THIS IS BACKED UP BY A FEW OF THE HIGHEST RESOLUTION MODELS HAVING PATCHES OF VERY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE INTERIOR. NAM SHOWS A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI 12Z SAT. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON WITH A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS THE RIDGE A BIT ON TUE WITH TROUGHING STILL REMAINING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGHING MOVES TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED. HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO WINDS STAYING BELOW 20KTS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
1238 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015 THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS HELPED PUSH TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 100. CONVERGENCE INTO THE HEAT TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION. SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-RIDGING SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST AS CONVECTION COMES TO AN END BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHEASTWARD SURGING CONVECTIVELY INFLUENCED COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION. LOW AND MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOULD INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE THAT SHOULD RACE EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT FROM EASTERN MISSOURI ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED STORMS SHOULD SWEEP SOUTH TO FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE WITH ALL AREAS DRY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
632 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015 SPOTTY SHOWERS AROUND LAST NIGHT CREATED SOME COOLER AREAS. AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WESTERN U. WHAT EVER ACTIVITY DOES FORM THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING AS SHORT LIVED UPSTREAM RIDGING MAKES FOR A QUIET START TO WEEKEND. LONGER TERM CONCERNS STILL FOCUS ON PARADE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND BRING A SLOW WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT ALL SITES BY 02Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOCATIONS NORTH OF A CHEYENNE TO STILLWATER LINE FAVORED NEAR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MAINLY FOCUSED ON THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON SATURDAY. WITH UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE TN/OHIO VALLEYS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
1136 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015 MINOR CHANGES TO THE HIGHS FOR TODAY FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS AND DEW POINTS. THEN LIKELY INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN UNTIED STATES PLACING THE HIGH PLAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WINDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY SHIFTING TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BUT STILL WARM OVERNIGHTS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS CENTERED OVER FAR NRN ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH 00Z KFGZ SOUNDING DATA SAMPLING H5 596DM HEIGHTS AND CALM WINDS WITH KTWC DEPICTING 593DM UNDER 5KT OF EASTERLY FLOW.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY.
Temperatures may get a little warmer than previously expected along the AR/southeast KS borders. Otherwise will keep the lower to mid 80s going for max temperatures. Much drier conditions are expected for Saturday as high pressure spreads southward from the upper Midwest.
A WIDE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SUNSHINE STATE AND NEAR THE NORTHERN WATERS OF OUR AREA. WITH A BROAD WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE REACHING ACROSS MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NEAR OUR AREA. MOSTLY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ON THE OUTER STRAITS AWAY FROM THE RIDGE AXIS.
653 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015 08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE NEAR KANSAS CITY. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY. SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A CORRESPONDING DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST.
Cold front still is lagging behind this system across northern MO, and with a low-level jet nosing into the area it's conceivable that a few more storms could pop up this morning until the front comes through.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND APPARENT TEMPS (HEAT INDICES) IN THE 98 TO 104 RANGE. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE RAIN AND IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
/ISSUED 436 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015/ SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE UNDER A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TODAY. OVER THE WEEKEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DRIFTS NORTHWARD.
FOR LATER TODAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE NNW BY LATE AFTN INTO TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS HELPED PUSH TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 100. CONVERGENCE INTO THE HEAT TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION. SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-RIDGING SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN STATES. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST AS CONVECTION COMES TO AN END BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
A CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE DURING THE DAY AND DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
1104 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
829 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY BRINGING DRY COOL AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN, KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LOW HUMIDITY.
933 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN AND BE REPLACED BY A LARGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT INTO THE WEEKEND.
1007 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD OF SE TEXAS WILL KEEP SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE TODAY. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
1212 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 HYDRO HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SEVERAL MORE DAYS OF FAIR WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND MUCH OF A CONTRIBUTION TO ANY WEATHER WE MAY GET AS THE CWA WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE SUBSIDENCE ZONE TO THE WEST OF THE LOW CENTER. IN THE LOWER LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED IN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. A SLUG OF MID 60S DEWPOINTS OVER S AL WILL MOVE ACROSS S MS IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TODAY.
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA.
A MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.
1033 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2015 High pressure ridge still keeping the sunny and warm conditions over Central Illinois this morning. By 15z have warmed a few degrees over same time yesterday, but aloft is a degree or so cooler, so expect a little offset as we mix out today. Dry origins of this low level easterly flow and general subsidence associated with the high and a building ridge over the middle of the U.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. QUIET AND WARM REMAINS THE STORY WITH NIL WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED.
UPPER LOW BRINGS MOUNTAIN MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL AGAIN LEAD TO RIVER VALLEY FOG LATER TONIGHT. BUT IT MAY NOT BE AS INTENSE IN EXTENT AND DENSITY AS IT WAS THIS MORNING DUE TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LACK OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE. THE WEAKNESS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FIELDS CREATING THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHEN THE DOMINANT LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. UNTIL A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR GIVING VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT IN RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT WHERE IFR FOG IS PROBABLE IN THE 09Z TO 14Z TIMEFRAME.
1118 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOST LOCATIONS TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
900 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2015 SOME LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ADVANCING UPPER LOW. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS PUSH THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR ABERDEEN INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 09Z-12Z AND WEAKEN THEIR INTENSITY AT THE SAME TIME.
ACTIVITY MAY NOT DIMINISH TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH WILL PROVIDE INGREDIENTS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION WITH VFR CONTINUING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS GIVING US PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK BUT WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS AND FINALLY A CHANCE AT SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINS.
824 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN BETWEEN MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S COAST TO THE MID/UPPER 80S INLAND. WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF MVFR AT SGJ/CRG/SSI.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS PUSH THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR ABERDEEN INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 09Z-12Z AND WEAKEN THEIR INTENSITY AT THE SAME TIME.
UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO HOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. KEEPING RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. THE HIGHEST TEMPS.
1104 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2015 A PLEASANT FIRST DAY OF FALL IS UNDERWAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF OUR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ALREADY RUNNING IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AREA WIDE AND EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. /ISSUED 408 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2015/ RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL KEEP BENIGN CONDITIONS IN PLACE TODAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. AS THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES SW. A SECOND UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SERN CONUS.
Scattered to broken high level ceilings and east to southeast winds are expected again through the taf period across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas as a ridge of high pressure remains over the Plains. Amplified upper ridging will extend through the Plains with any rain chances expected to remain north and west of the area. Lower dewpoints are currently spreading into SE OK and this drier air will push westward as sfc ridging strengthens to our east and northeast.
455 AM PDT WED SEP 23 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BROAD SFC/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING FOR DRY CONDITIONS THRU THU NIGHT. AS RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT GRADUALLY WEAKEN. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE USHERED IN INTERACTING WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES DURING THE DAY ON FRI AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE FRI NIGHT. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE ON FRI AND POTENTIAL RAINFALL KEEPING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY AND THURSDAY. WHERE HIGHS ON FRI ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S. A WEAK MID/UPPER TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL LIFT NNW ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
1122 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY BRINGING DRY COOL AIR. A BAND OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE NOW REACHING THE ST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN, KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LOW HUMIDITY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CONTINUE PROVIDING FAVORABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS AT ALL LOCATIONS. TODAY AND TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE RESIDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL BE REINFORCED BY A RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA TODAY. THE TWO FEATURES WILL MERGE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WASHES OUT NEAR THE STRAITS/FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT DUE TO A COMBINATION OF DIURNAL PRESSURE RISE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING AND CONTINUED BUILDING OF THE LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 40S IN THE TYPICALLY COOL SPOTS INTERIOR THUMB.
WITH UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING FROM TX INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS TODAY SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TUE. EVEN AT SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BUILDING UPPER RIDGING FROM THE DESERT SW INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
832 AM PDT WED SEP 23 2015 Milder temperatures continue across the region today, then warmer conditions return Thursday and continue into the weekend. Temperatures are considerably cooler than 24 hours ago (5-15 degrees lower) across the Central Valley and surrounding terrain and generally range from the 40s in the mountain valleys to the 50s and lower 60s elsewhere.
SATELLITE AND REGIONAL 88D WINDS AND UPR-LVL OBS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM WRN NEB INTO CO/NM.
923 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 MORNING MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST U.
MODIS IMAGERY SHOWING WATER TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S NEAR THE SHORE TO MID 50S NEAR THE OPEN WATER WHICH IS WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF FORECAST DEW POINTS. BUT ALL IN ALL THE DRY LOW LEVEL E-SE FLOW WITH SFC/850 ANTICYCLONE WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY LOOK.
935 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTH SURFACE WINDS. THE 500 MB RIDGE AMPLIFIES IN THE WESTERN US WITH CORRESPONDING LOWERING HEIGHTS IN THE EASTERN US AND THE REGION UNDER AN AREA OF NORTHWEST FLOW.
AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL. OUR WEEK OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY. WHILE THE HIGHER TERRAIN REACHES THE UPPER TO LOWER 70S. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BEHIND THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
THE MOST RECENT LOOPS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW AN ELONGATED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DUG DEEP INTO EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE IS WEAKLY LINKED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. RESULTING IN AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE TROPICAL EASTERLIES. THE MOST ACTIVE AREAS HAVE BEEN WEST OF THE LOWER KEYS AND SOUTH OF THE UPPER KEYS. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL FLUCTUATE IN POSITION AND INTENSITY.
1050 AM MDT WED SEP 23 2015 VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW STRATUS DECK OVER THE PLAINS HAS BEEN STEADILY ERODING SINCE MID MORNING. WITH THE LOW LEVELS GRADUALLY DRYING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 15-18Z. INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG TO ALL OF THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH 12Z WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST THEREAFTER. QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER TODAY AS UPPER- LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
1238 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 TRANQUIL WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WITH A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE THE MAIN INFLUENCE. TODAY AND TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE RESIDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL BE REINFORCED BY A RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA TODAY. THE TWO FEATURES WILL MERGE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WASHES OUT NEAR THE STRAITS/FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT DUE TO A COMBINATION OF DIURNAL PRESSURE RISE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING AND CONTINUED BUILDING OF THE LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 40S IN THE TYPICALLY COOL SPOTS INTERIOR THUMB.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD THIS MORNING AS A TROUGH EXITS THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FUEL FOR A BIT OF CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS CURRENTLY.
1033 AM MDT WED SEP 23 2015 THE STRATUS DECK IS DISSIPATING OVER THE METRO AREA RIGHT NOW AND THE CLOUD SHIELD FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER IS MOVING EASTWARD. THE LATEST MODELS STILL HAVE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL FOR THE HIGH COUNTY LATE IN THE DAY. BUT THOSE TOO WILL BE ENDING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH GLIDES TO THE EAST. LOW LEVELS ARE MOISTENING WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF SURFACE CYCLONE. BUT MOST FOG WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER RIDGES AS SURFACE T/TD SPREADS ARE MARGINAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.
703 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTH SURFACE WINDS. THE 500 MB RIDGE AMPLIFIES IN THE WESTERN US WITH CORRESPONDING LOWERING HEIGHTS IN THE EASTERN US AND THE REGION UNDER AN AREA OF NORTHWEST FLOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BEHIND THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO DESPITE A S/W TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND DAMPENING THE RIDGE AND A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SE CONUS. RED TIDE CONDITIONS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND COASTAL BEND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWN THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND IMPACT BEACHES AT SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AS WELL AS BOCA CHICA BEACH.
1019 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE WEEK. MID MORNING UPDATE TO REMOVE VALLEY FOG AS SUNSHINE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
Dry origins of this low level easterly flow and general subsidence associated with the high and a building ridge over the middle of the U.
THEREFORE WILL BEGIN TO TRIM BACK ON THE HIGH PCPN CHANCES WE HAD FOR TODAY TO A MORE ISOLATED/SCATTERED VARIETY. TEMPS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER AGAIN.
/ISSUED 251 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2015/ SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST U. THIS HIGH WILL STAY PRETTY MUCH OVER THE SAME AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
1016 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 DRY, RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER, IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN CONTROL. A GREAT STRETCH OF EARLY FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
1242 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE 500 MB RIDGE AMPLIFIES IN THE WESTERN US WITH CORRESPONDING LOWERING HEIGHTS IN THE EASTERN US AND THE REGION UNDER AN AREA OF NORTHWEST FLOW.