Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Weak surface ridging is currently sliding in behind the front. Flow aloft is largely northerly as an amplifying upper level ridge sits just west of the area over the Intermountain West. Persistent northerly flow during the day Sunday will lead to below average temps as well, with highs largely expected to remain in the mid to upper 70s and lows overnight falling into the low to mid-50s.
203 PM MDT Sat Aug 1 2020 Satellite and 500mb RAP analysis showed a ridge building into the Rockies early this morning, with a trough extending from the Upper Midwest to southern Plains. Temperatures warm into the upper 80s to low 90s today as a cold front approaches the area from the north. It also looks as though storms may take a more southerly track along the eastern periphery of the ridge rather than easterly. Upper ridge centered near the Four Corners to start the period will slowly shift eastward and be centered over the central plains by the end of the period.
254 PM MDT Sat Aug 1 2020 Forecast concerns include the possibility of thunderstorms across the eastern sections of the forecast area this afternoon and early evening and a possibility of showers and thunderstorms transitioning further to the south and west over the next couple of days as a cold front pushes deeper into the central High Plains region. The high pressure area aloft over the southwest U.
Recent surface analysis indicates a weak cold front is draped near the KS/NE border owing to an upper level disturbance over central NE. Sunday will be slightly cooler thanks to the previous day's frontal passage, with areas near I-70 struggling to reach 80 to mid-80s near the KS/OK border. A better chance of thunderstorms exists late Sunday afternoon through the evening as thunderstorms that form over the higher terrain in CO track east.
This Evening Through Saturday Upper ridge remains to the west of forecast area with weak wave sliding down ridge across WY. Cool air advection remains through Sunday as ridge slides to the east and winds shift to the southeast, so temperatures will be about the same as today.
An upper level trough currently extending from the Great Lakes region southwest into the ARKLATEX region will slowly advance eastward as it digs into the lower MS River Valley through the rest of the weekend. At the surface, high pressure will largely maintain its hold over the central Gulf of Mexico while a weak cold front slowly progresses over the ARKLATEX region and Tennessee Valley closer to the local area. Deeper moisture moves into the area ahead of the encroaching upper trough and pushes the drier air that moved into the area yesterday off to the east. Lows tonight remain in the lower to mid 70s inland and upper 70s near the coast. Highs Sunday afternoon are likely to be similar to today, but with some areas a touch warmer, running in the low to mid 90s across much of the area.
244 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 As of 2 PM, an upper level trough axis extended from the Great Lakes through southeastern Missouri and into eastern Texas. Some isolated shower activity has occurred as far west as the Highway 63 corridor. Upper level short wave energy and an approaching surface cold front may spark an isolated shower or thunderstorm across this area before sunrise. This puts most areas in the lower to middle 60s. That cold front will then move southeast across the Ozarks on Sunday. Despite the scattered storms, most areas should manage to warm into the lower 80s.
Next up is another round of showers and thunderstorms associated with the next disturbance rounding the trof just to our west. Thereafter, took a leap of faith with the high res guidance and brought down POPs somewhat for late afternoon. Will then maintain VCTS through the remainder of the TAFs as a sharp upper trof approaches the area along with a cool front. support for storms was provided by an upper level low over MO w/ the trof axis extending back into west Texas. SE Vernon parish and central Jasper county has seen the highest rainfall totals three to four inches.
1235 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 At 08Z, a surface cold front was analyzed across northeast into southwest South Dakota. Temperatures across western and north central Nebraska were in the lower to mid 60s. A slight chance for showers or thunderstorms until mid morning across southeastern counties near the passing cold front and weak disturbance. With the cold front passing through by late morning, highs today will be slightly cooler in the upper 70s to around 80 north central to around 85 southwest. ON Sunday, 850mb temperatures will be a couple degrees cooler for highs from 75 to 80. Sunday night, an upper trough is forecast to extend from the Great Lakes through the lower Mississippi Valley with an upper ridge extending over the Great Basin in the west.
1208 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 (Today and tonight) Latest synoptic-scale analysis shows an amplified flow pattern across the country, with anomalous ridging across the west and departing cyclone to our east. Modest moisture and weak instability should result in at least isolated convection along a cold front in Kansas this afternoon.
253 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 The slow-moving closed low which brought us rain for the past couple of days is slowly shifting eastward across the Mississippi Valley. Further north, another short wave centered over the Hudson Bay is digging southeast into the Upper Midwest, and these two systems will come into phase over the next 24 hours, generating one long wave trough over North America extending from Hudson Bay to the Gulf of Mexico. As this occurs, ridges of high pressure will strengthen to the west and east of the trough. This high amplitude blocky pattern will be with us for much of the week. Noticing a few showers back over central Missouri as well which are likely being generated by instability where there are breaks in the overcast and helped out by the vortmax rotating around the low.
Expect the activity to continue throughout the afternoon as the cold front pushes into the mid state, then diminishing quickly after 00Z.
317 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 19Z water vapor imagery showed an upper trough from the Hudson Bay extending south through the lower MS river valley. An upper ridge was centered over southern CA/AZ with another upper trough over the Gulf of Alaska. At the surface, low pressure was over northern KY with ridging along the lee of the central Rockies. For Sunday a cooler and dryer airmass is expected to move in as high pressure builds south through the plains.
An offshore upper level trough will slowly shift onshore by Sunday night. Onshore flow will support a typical pattern of morning clouds and cooler temperatures today and Sunday. The upper level trough will bring a slight chance for rain with the upper level trough.
Upper ridge remains in place to our west with disturbances moving through the northwest flow.
Recent surface analysis indicates a weak cold front is draped near the KS/NE border owing to an upper level disturbance over central NE. Sunday will be slightly cooler thanks to the previous day's frontal passage, with areas near I-70 struggling to reach 80 to mid-80s near the KS/OK border. A better chance of thunderstorms exists late Sunday afternoon through the evening as thunderstorms that form over the higher terrain in CO track east. An upper level ridge over the desert southwest will slowly weaken as it gradually moves east. Concurrently, an upper level trough over the Great Lakes/southeastern Canada will slowly lift northeastward. At the surface, high pressure will build in behind today's cold front and move slowly east throughout the period.
1041 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 Mostly cloudy skies prevailed across the cntrl TN Valley this late Sat morning, as a weak cold front over the Mid South region gradually approaches NW AL. The better mid/upper forcing looks to be displaced just to the N/NE, as an upper trough axis begins to rotate ewd thru the Midwest/OH Valley states. Thus stayed with dry weather, with highs in the mid 80s, and lows in the mid 60s, thanks to unseasonably deep troughing in place.
Upper trough over MS Valley is producing narrow bands of convection over the Plateau and TN Valley presently, bands that are oriented SSW-to-NNE and moving NNEwd.
As high pressure expands from the Desert Southwest, slightly warmer and drier conditions will continue across the inland areas through this weekend. Low pressure off the West Coast will keep near coastal areas seasonable, with persistent overnight marine layer intrusions through the period. Water vapor imagery shows that a strong ridge of high pressure remains over the Desert Southwest this afternoon and a trough of low pressure over the northeast Pacific. The ridge has just enough of influence of the region that is has squashed the marine layer to roughly 1000 ft deep, and most areas are running 2 to 5 degrees warmer today than yesterday. This trend with our shallow marine layer and warmer conditions, especially across the inland areas, will continue through tomorrow.
/issued 803 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020/ Atlantic high pressure stretching across the area and out over the Gulf of Mexico will begin to weaken later today and tonight. Weak high pressure continues across the waters today with winds/seas not higher than 15 knots/2 feet.
In fact satellite imagery suggests either we are either recirculating moisture or advecting it under the ridge. Strong heating and orographic circulations have once again popped storms on about every ridge line with storms drifting southward. A rinse and repeat scenario though the ridge axis is shifting closer and the drier air the previous discussion was mentioning is likely to mix in. More confident in the much above normal high temperatures remaining in place with continued triple digit readings over much of the lower desert valleys.
224 PM MDT Sat Aug 1 2020 Only notable change to forecast was to add a slight chance of convection from Northern Park to Wheatland county early this evening as models are picking up a weak impulse under the ridge axis moving through central Montana. Otherwise, axis of strong high pressure is right over the northern Rockies this weekend. Sunday should be just slightly warmer than today. Despite the above normal heights, east winds will keep us cooler than locations west of the divide where the heat is much more significant.
Given the low probability of storms forming and the isolated nature should any manage to develop, have opted to leave out this weather element from this forecast issuance at this time.
A secondary cold front is currently tracking south across the local area this afternoon.
Temps closer to 75-90th percentile for most areas, especially near KFSD where downsloping off the ridge will likely be in full force.
Thunderstorms will gradually weaken and taper off this evening as low pressure initially over southern Indiana pulls off toward Lake Erie. Tomorrow an upper trof and weak surface boundary will be just off to our west from the Great Lakes to Texas. Once the morning clouds break up, many locations will have a decent afternoon between the hit-and-miss showers with highs in the lower 80s, dew points in the mid 60s, and a west breeze. Sunday night begins with the axis of a large upper trough digging south from the southern tip of Hudson Bay in Canada all the way down to Houston, Texas.
Will see winds decrease also with lows expected to fall into the low to mid 50s. The cold front in the Upper Midwest currently extends from Lake Superior southeast across MN and through Sioux Falls.
620 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 Surface observations and satellite imagery show a cold front pushing south across the Central Plains this afternoon. Despite cooler temps aloft, lapse rates are on the weaker side and, combined with lower dewpoints, may only support modest destabilization ahead of the front (1000-1500 MLCAPE). Initially, convection should be confined to the High Plains, with stable/drier air remaining over central/eastern KS.
The mid-level trough axis will continue to move east across the region and into the coastal waters through Sunday morning, where isolated showers/storms will be possible near the coast Sunday morning. Drier air will build into the region through Sunday night behind the exiting trough.
An offshore upper level trough will slowly shift onshore by Sunday night. Low-level onshore flow will support a typical pattern of morning clouds Sunday with cooler temperatures. The upper level trough will bring a slight chance for rain mainly along the coast and Olympic Peninsula.
/Issued 331 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020/ An upper trough from the Great Lakes into the mid MS Valley will deepen across the southeast through the period. This area will be on the southern fringes of a closed low moving northeast through the OH Valley.
Low temps look to bottom out in the lower 60s, with some light fog possible as temps cool to the dewpoint late tonight. After a brief lull in precip chances, a cold front currently extending from Lake Superior to southeast Nebraska will approach from the northwest and trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area by Sunday afternoon.
530 PM MDT Sat Aug 1 2020 Forecast concerns include the possibility of thunderstorms across the eastern sections of the forecast area this afternoon and early evening and a possibility of showers and thunderstorms transitioning further to the south and west over the next couple of days as a cold front pushes deeper into the central High Plains region. The high pressure area aloft over the southwest U.
/issued 352 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020/ Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the wrn Gulf maintaining a general wrly low-level flow over the forecast area, while a weak front is noted just to our north. Water vapor imagery shows troffing in place from the Great Lakes sswwd to the wrn Gulf Coast/srn TX with a series of weak disturbances noted passing through it.
926 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 19Z water vapor imagery showed an upper trough from the Hudson Bay extending south through the lower MS river valley. An upper ridge was centered over southern CA/AZ with another upper trough over the Gulf of Alaska. At the surface, low pressure was over northern KY with ridging along the lee of the central Rockies. For Sunday a cooler and dryer airmass is expected to move in as high pressure builds south through the plains.
Visible satellite imagery this afternoon shows a well defined area of low pressure currently lifting NE through Middle TN. Surface analysis shows the attendant cold front stretching from the Middle TN area SW through North and Central MS. With the frontal boundary shifted south of the area and another surface based system to our west, cooler and drier air will settle over the area.
As of 8PM CDT, low pressure was moving up the Ohio Valley with a trailing cold front extending down into Middle Tn. Slight relief from the muggy pattern was already being felt with 10-20 mph west breezes starting to bring drier and cooler air.
Sunday will be a degree or two cooler than today and we thought about ending the current heat advisory tonight.
An upper level ridge stretching from the southwestern US through Saskatchewan will keep the area warm and dry through the rest of this weekend.
As of 2 PM, an upper level trough axis extended from the Great Lakes through southeastern Missouri and into eastern Texas. Some isolated shower activity has occurred as far west as the Highway 63 corridor. Upper level short wave energy and an approaching surface cold front may spark an isolated shower or thunderstorm across this area before sunrise. This puts most areas in the lower to middle 60s. That cold front will then move southeast across the Ozarks on Sunday. Despite the scattered storms, most areas should manage to warm into the lower 80s.
Hot temperatures cover the Northern Rockies again today with many areas in the lower 90s. Some of our lowest valleys in Northwest Montana and the lower Hells Canyon in west central Idaho will approach the 100 degree mark.
Cold front moving through the region at 20z is helping to trigger a few showers and thunderstorms across the region. And a reinforcing lobe of cooler temps aloft on Sunday, wouldn't be surprised if isolated instability showers develop along and east of the Missouri River Sunday afternoon. Cooler than normal temperatures on average 10 degrees below climatology will continue through the middle of the upcoming week.
A cold front is still located in middle Tennessee late this evening, but it will move east into the forecast area overnight and should be on the Carolina side of the Appalachians during the day tomorrow. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 89 69 91 68 / 10 20 30 30 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 87 69 89 67 / 10 40 40 40 20 Oak Ridge, TN 68 87 67 89 67 / 10 30 30 40 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 85 66 84 64 / 20 50 50 70 30.
Surface analysis showed a 1008mb low over southern Indiana with a trailing from cold front to northeast Texas to Big Bend Texas and ridge axis across north Florida over north Gulf of Mexico. Initial precipitable water field showed moisture pooling along the surface front and ahead of the trough axis with precipitable water values of 1. However, sinking air ahead of trough and drying in the mid layers have diminished most convection this afternoon. The trough axis and moisture axis will linger over the forecast area through early Sunday as the trough lifts northeast.
If anything this inversion will tend to strengthen a bit tonight into Sunday as ridging builds from the southwestern United States, even while another trough tries to clip our area. Still think most coastal areas will see some afternoon sun, though with warmer mid- level temps and a slightly stronger inversion, there will still be a tendency for localized stubborn stratus, particularly right near the ocean waters. This will be a result of a pattern shift, as ridging shifts from the Southwest toward the mid-section of the United States, and gives way to more troughing dropping toward the Pacific Northwest.
635 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 The slow-moving closed low which brought us rain for the past couple of days is slowly shifting eastward across the Mississippi Valley. Further north, another short wave centered over the Hudson Bay is digging southeast into the Upper Midwest, and these two systems will come into phase over the next 24 hours, generating one long wave trough over North America extending from Hudson Bay to the Gulf of Mexico. As this occurs, ridges of high pressure will strengthen to the west and east of the trough. This high amplitude blocky pattern will be with us for much of the week. Noticing a few showers back over central Missouri as well which are likely being generated by instability where there are breaks in the overcast and helped out by the vortmax rotating around the low.
The upper level trough is finally slowly exiting the area as a surface cold front begins pushing into northwest Iowa.
This evening a cold front was positioned across Kansas from west to far northeast and then extended northeast into the Upper Midwest. the cold front is progged to continue its southeastward movement and push into Northeast Oklahoma late tonight and far Northwest Arkansas Sunday morning.
853 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 A rare early August cold front is currently progressing through northeast Alabama, where better daytime heating has resulted in the formation of a line of showers. Limited radiational cooling due to cloud cover will keep lows from dropping near forecast dew points in the low 60s. With the frontal boundary shifted south of the area and another surface based system to our west, cooler and drier air will settle over the area.
The strength of the gusts accompanying these showers has decreased as of late and see no reason why that trend would not continue as the low-level flow continues to decelerate.
320 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 High pressure slowly builds in today from the west. Low pressure to the east will cause the Northland to be pinched in a pressure gradient that will keep winds elevated above normal speeds today and out of the north. Skies should be mostly sunny across Minnesota, but due to flow off of Lake Superior and the lingering low pressure system to the east - Wisconsin should have a fairly cloudy day with some potential for lingering shower activity with light QPF amounts (<0.
A rare early August cold front is currently progressing through northeast Alabama, where better daytime heating has resulted in the formation of a line of showers. Limited radiational cooling due to cloud cover will keep lows from dropping near forecast dew points in the low 60s. With the frontal boundary shifted south of the area and another surface based system to our west, cooler and drier air will settle over the area.
146 AM PDT Sun Aug 2 2020 Above average temperatures to continue today as ridging remains overhead. Cooling trend to occur this week as upper troughing takes hold. Triple digit heat will continue today in the San Joaquin Valley south of Merced County as the desert southwest ridge remains in place. Later today and into this evening, upper trough in the Pacific northwest will begin to push through, which will start to flatten the desert southwest ridge tonight.
328 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 After a start with temperatures in the mid 50s, continued cooler temperatures with isolated showers are what's in store for today. Wind direction will shift towards an east/northeasterly direction overnight, with temperatures dropping down into the lower 50s.
245 AM MDT Sun Aug 2 2020 Current surface analysis shows high pressure centered over the Dakotas, with nearly stationary frontal boundary stretching from the lee of the northern Rockies through southern portions of the central Plains. Upper level analysis shows ridge axis still in place across the northern Rockies to the Great Basin region.
251 AM MDT Sun Aug 2 2020 Early morning satellite imagery shows a high amplitude ridge over the northern Rockies with cooler northerly flow over the north central U. There are some high clouds spilling over the ridge in our area but conditions are dry. Temps today should max out in the low-mid 90s most places.
The broad circulation is seen on KAMX radar slowly moving to the NNW and will continue to be steered and sheared by the upper trough moving through the Mississippi River Valley today and tonight.
As high pressure expands from the Desert Southwest, slightly warmer and drier conditions will continue across the inland areas through this weekend. Low pressure off the West Coast will keep near coastal areas seasonable, with persistent overnight marine layer intrusions through the period.
311 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 Upper ridge centered along the AZ/Mexico border this morning will shift east the next few days becoming centered over NM and TX by midweek. Even looking out 240 hrs shows the ridge in the same location. perhaps a degree warmer.
354 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020 An upper level trough extends across the entire country from the Great Lakes to the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and will generally remain in that position through the first half of this upcoming week. That means the frontal boundary associated with the trough will not make it past our CWA. Near normal highs expected today, which is on the high side of guidance.
Highs will be in the low to mid 80s for much of the region with some along the Plateau seeing highs in the upper 70s. As the upper- level trough continues to dig into the eastern half of the U.
Forecast on track with skies clearing and temps falling into the low 60s already in a few spots. Will see winds decrease also with lows expected to fall into the low to mid 50s. The cold front in the Upper Midwest currently extends from Lake Superior southeast across MN and through Sioux Falls.
149 AM MDT Sun Aug 2 2020 Forecast concerns include the possibility of thunderstorms across the eastern sections of the forecast area this afternoon and early evening and a possibility of showers and thunderstorms transitioning further to the south and west over the next couple of days as a cold front pushes deeper into the central High Plains region. The high pressure area aloft over the southwest U.