Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cooler windy conditions remain at play late this afternoon, with temperatures ranging from near 60 over the southern Tug Hill region of upstate NY, to the mid 70s over parts of northeast PA. As the primary upper trough continues to drop SE this evening across New England, a deep NW flow is likely to keep mostly cloudy skies across at least our northern zones, with again, less clouds to the south. Quiet weather continues this period, as the large scale pattern features a dry N-NW flow aloft, between an upper trough near the Canadian Maritimes, and an amplified upper ridge over the middle of the country.
717 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Cooler dry air has moved into the region. We will remain under northwest flow for most of the coming week as a strong ridge builds over central North America. No significant issues with high pressure in dry air mass. A tad warmer than Sunday.
Cooler conditions are forecast for Monday with a chance of thunderstorms, mainly north of I-40.
918 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 High pressure will build over the area for tonight and Monday.
Position of ridge axis will again favor interior sections for late day thunderstorms focused along sea breezes and outflow boundaries. High temperature near the east coast top out around 90 while the interior sections will climb into the low-mid 90s for highs. Developing troffiness aloft over the Gulf with ample feed of moisture over the area. Low level ridge axis will be displaced to the south of the area. with values creeping back up to the high end scattered to likely PoPs through the mid to late week. Onshore winds near sunset from the sea breeze pushing inland will become S/SW overnight as ridge axis begins to shift south. (Previous Discussion) Ridge axis will shift to the south early in the week.
Model guidance not as aggressive with the low cloud forecast as it was with the 00z issuance. /ISSUED / Upper low to trek east overnight. with the highest rain chances to remain across southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas.
Latest aircraft soundings out of MCI again show a little bit of a weakness in lapse rates above 700 hPa, keeping most of the instability based in the low levels and hopefully keeping storms from exploding vertically and resulting in a more widespread damaging wind threat this afternoon.
Meanwhile weak upper level disturbances will continue to move from the northwest to the southeast over the forecast area around a weak upper high pressure area over the Western Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will again develop throughout the day Monday with decreasing stability, with the highest coverage across our western and central zones. Low temperatures tonight will be in the low 70s inland areas with mid 70s along the immediate coastal sections.
This should be the pattern for most of the week as a 500mb trough pushes to the east, and a ridge builds in over the eastern half of the country. Models are indicating a weak 500 mb low will form under the ridge, only help to enhance the convection some for the middle and latter half of the week.
737 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Weather tonight will be quiet as high pressure settles into the region. It will be cooler tonight with lows in the low to mid 50s.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a high amplitude ridge over the middle of the country with weak cyclonic flow under it over Texas. There was a deep trough along the west coast. The upper ridge will push the weak trough to the east tonight and Monday and by Monday night the ridge will re-establish itself over the southern plains.
1031 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Weather tonight will be quiet as high pressure settles into the region. It will be cooler tonight with lows in the low to mid 50s.
Look for the breakdown of the upper level ridge to continue through Monday. Expect slightly cooler air Monday, as dry high pressure settles into the region.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 95 72 92 / 10 30 20 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 91 66 90 / 10 10 20 30 Oak Ridge, TN 69 92 66 91 / 10 10 20 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 86 62 88 / 20 10 10 30.
Minor changes late this evening to lower overnight temperatures and dewpoints slightly but otherwise no other changes were needed as high pressure continues to build in from the west.
Weak high pressure will remain over the area tonight. Quick update to remove thunderstorm chances over the far southeast cwa as cold front has moved through the forecast area.
959 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Cold front continues southward push.
Upper ridge will gradually take over. After tonight and Monday, drier air moves in along with upper ridge and think rain-free conditions will come to the area.
A cool upper trough will slowly cross the Great Basin through Monday.
With surface dewpoints pooling in the lower to middle 70s along the boundary, LAPS data is showing SBCAPE values in excess of 4000J/kg. Monday will feature low pressure moving from northeast Minnesota to northeast Wisconsin, while pulling a warm front half way across Illinois by 00z/7pm. Precip chances will increase Monday afternoon as the warm front creates a trigger in the unstable airmass with 2500-3500 J/kg MUCAPE.
Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s. In the low to mid levels of the atmosphere, an area of high pressure will be centered over the central Gulf of Mexico overnight. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a trough of low pressure will move over the central Bahamas tonight.
423 PM PDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Low pressure will bring mostly cloudy skies to most of the area tonight and Monday along with morning drizzle. Water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon shows a weak upper low over the area. This upper low is resulting in some instability over the mountains. The upper low has also resulted in a deep marine layer that was close to 5000 ft earlier this morning. The low clouds will be stubborn to burn off this afternoon and most areas probably won't see any clearing.
950 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 A weak cold front will move through the region tonight and early Monday. Overnight lows expected in the lower to mid 70s with some possible upper 60s in the far northern Midlands and Pee Dee area where some cooler and drier air may arrive behind the approaching front before sunrise. A secondary cold front/trough will move into or through the area Monday morning. The GFS is more aggressive driving slightly cooler/drier air south of the region than NAM. and this is reflected in the cooler MAV guidance. Weak downslope early and warm advection/upper level ridge/mos cool bias suggest temperatures will only be a little cooler. So continued forecast maximum temperatures in the low to mid 90s as surface winds shift to east.
745 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Cooler dry air has moved into the region. We will remain under northwest flow for most of the coming week as a strong ridge builds over central North America. No significant issues with high pressure in dry air mass. A tad warmer than Sunday.
The bulk of the convection with the main upper low has exited the area. Furthermore the parent weak upper low will continue to slowly trek eastward and further maintain precip chances both late tonight and especially. with the highest chances being over far E OK and western AR.
At the surface, a cold front stretching from a low over southeast North Dakota into western Nebraska as of early afternoon will advance southeast into the mid Missouri Valley tonight before stalling across the area on Monday. Thunderstorms developing along the cold front this afternoon may begin to affect portions of northeast Nebraska this evening. While vertical shear is weak owing to the proximity of the mid-level ridge axis, the presence of inverted-v type thermodynamic profiles will be supportive of locally strong wind gusts. Monday/Monday night, as mentioned above, the surface front will become quasi-stationary across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, beneath ridging aloft.
716 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Cooler dry air has moved into the region. We will remain under northwest flow for most of the coming week as a strong ridge builds over central North America. No significant issues with high pressure in dry air mass. A tad warmer than Sunday.
This Evening Through Monday Night 20z surface analysis had low pressure near K2D5 with cold front to KANW to northern CO. High pressure over southeast MT with northwesterly winds over CWA. A narrow band of 1-2KJ/kg has developed ahead of cold front with some post frontal convection over south central SD. This jet will push tail end of old cold front back into northeast WY under increasing low level southeast boundary layer flow. Monday, upper trough moves toward the plains as a better piece of energy moves from the four corners area into CO and WY and then into the Dakotas late. Suspect about 1KJ/kg MLCAPE will be available along trough that will move from western portions of the CWA to the SD plains Monday night.
A weak cold front offshore will move through Western Washington Monday, with precipitation becoming fairly widespread.
853 PM PDT SUN JUN 12 2016 Low pressure will bring mostly cloudy skies to most of the area tonight and Monday. Water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon shows a weak upper low over the area. This upper low is resulting in some instability over the mountains. The upper low has also resulted in a deep marine layer that was close to 5000 ft earlier this morning. The low clouds will be stubborn to burn off this afternoon and most areas probably won't see any clearing.
Observations show that winds at the coast have switched to become northwesterly (onshore), and this will likely end the heating at the coast due to the thermal trough as it has pushed inland. A cooling trend is expected to occur beginning tonight as the weak ridging breaks down and a low pressure system with several disturbances riding around it approaches the Pacific Northwest. This low will also allow for a marine push to move inland. As a result, there is a slight chance of showers along the coast and for the Umpqua basin on Monday as well as cloudier skies and cooler temperatures areawide. This pattern of cloudy, cooler weather will continue through the week as the low pressure system moves southward from Vancouver Island to our offshore waters.
Quick update to remove thunderstorm chances over the far southeast cwa as cold front has moved through the forecast area.
1004 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016 High pressure will build over the area for tonight and Monday.
As of mid afternoon, a surface analysis showed high pressure centered over Lake Michigan with a frontal boundary dropping south across south-central Illinois, southern Indiana, and southwest Ohio. Ahead of it across central Kentucky and southern Indiana, temperatures have warmed into the low 90s with dewpoints running in the mid 60s to low 70s in places. The front will push through central Kentucky during the overnight as high pressure continues to nose down from the north. The front will make enough southward and southwestward progress to provide the region with cooler air on Monday, lower dewpoints and a dry forecast. Look for highs to top out in the low/mid 80s across the Bluegrass to near 90 west of I-65.
An active weather pattern expected to develop Monday as a robust mid and upper level trof approaches and advances across the area.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH TODAY BEFORE STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP MIDWEEK BRINGING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
342 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
STILL APPEARS THERE MAY BE A LULL FROM MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE WARM FRONT BEGINS LIFTING NORTH ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONGER UPPER WAVE. DIFFICULT TO SEE MUCH WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH SO PERHAPS A LULL MIDDAY BUT WITH SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON NOW THAT THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. WITH THE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 70S TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS AT THE LAKE WITH EASTERLY FLOW.
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT.
The main show is set to occur later this afternoon and evening across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as thunderstorms develop along the Dryline across central Oklahoma as the main trof associated with the mid-level low over the northern Plains moves across the area.
250 AM MST MON MAY 9 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEK FOR A GRADUAL.
This trend will likely continue through most of the morning hours as the RAP and the SPC HRRR is showing additional thunderstorms developing along and north of a warm front this morning. This front will move north of the CWA by this afternoon in response to an approaching upper level trough from the Central Plains. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop over Missouri this afternoon as strong ascent increases ahead of the trough at the same time there will be strong low level moisture convergence over the area.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA NOW WILL WEAKEN AND CONTINUE PUSHING EAST OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
AS GREATER HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD FROM THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING MID LEVEL TROUGHING AND A BELT OF DEEP LAYER WINDS AROUND 40 KTS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATE DAY STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IN THE PRESENCE OF A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE CHARACTERIZED BY SBCAPES POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG AND WEAK CAPPING.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TONIGHT GIVING THE REGION MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S. THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST AFFECTING THE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BE LINGERING ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS.
THE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND INTO MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER. A brief bout of thunderstorms containing small hail are possible along the cold front this afternoon, most likely occurring over the Butte/Blackfoot Region.
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK.
150 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH MICHIGAN AND THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THEN LIFT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
The boundary extended west into a Central Plains low that was associated with a large H5 low, trof over the Central Rockies. Given the unsettled SW flow pattern aloft and northward lifting warm front, will keep PoPs going today, chance N and NW, slight chance SE. And the low trop stabilizes fairly quickly through the evening. Never the less, high chance to low end categorical PoPs for convection as a mid level trof moves NE across the area.
240 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
351 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016 LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE NEBRASKA/COLORADO/WYOMING BORDER WILL IMPACT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THE UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
157 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 A COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY WHILE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS GA/FL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 80S COAST WHERE A MIDDAY SEABREEZE WILL FORM.
THEREAFTER, AN INCOMING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, INTO MID WEEK.
122 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 A FRONT STALLED NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY.
200 AM PDT MON MAY 9 2016 High pressure will bring drier and warmer conditions this week. Expect a pleasant week with temperatures generally trending warmer. Aside from light northwesterly breezes this afternoon due to an approaching shallow, but dry, backdoor cold front, conditions will be benign.
238 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
416 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016 EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL MAINTAINING A SRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND MAINTAINS A GOOD GRADIENT OVER THE REGION.
105 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT BECOMING STATIONARY TO THE SOUTH. IT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST MUCH OF THIS WEEK. SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK.
342 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 A WARM FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY.
139 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TODAY.
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WARMING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
132 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 A STATIONARY FRONT SITUATED OVER NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL THEN DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TODAY FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
346 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016 AT H5 RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. TROUGH INTO MONTANA AND NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHARP RIDGE FROM ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WILL DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WITH COLD POOL ALOFT. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST THROUGH MONTANA.
335 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM LIFTING BACK NORTH THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE HAS SET UP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MANY LOW SPOTS IN THE LOWER 50S WHILE RIDGES ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S.
Stacked high pressure remains in place over the southeast today, with a deep upper level low over the central Plains. Highs will peak in the low to mid 80s in southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle and peak in the mid to upper 80s in southwest Georgia and the Big Bend.
CONFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE LARGE WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO STREAM MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOIST AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE ZOOMS INTO OUR AREA TOMORROW MORNING AS THE LARGE TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS.
THERE IS A FEW EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH IN ARIZONA AND NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO WHICH IS AIDING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA. SNOW IS FALLING OVER THE HIGHWAY 191 SUMMIT BUT SO FAR ONLY SOME LIGHT SLUSH MIGHT BE AFFECTING TRAVEL. UPPER LOW GETTING KICKED OUT OF OUR AREA ON MONDAY BY ANOTHER UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST. EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY TO BE AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AT MANY LOCATIONS. SOUTH OF LEADING EDGE OF BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA. THEN A VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL LIKELY BE SWINGING MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF I-70 IS PUSHED EAST OF OUR CWA.
A SHARP AND FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD IN THE UPPER TROUGH. ON TUESDAY THE FIRST LOBE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND EXIT TO THE EAST.
346 AM PDT MON MAY 9 2016 After some lingering clouds today, dry and warmer weather is expected this week. Temperatures will warm to around 5-10 degrees above average by mid-week as ridging over the eastern Pacific moves onto the West Coast.
128 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY.
UPPER TROUGH WORKS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS COLORADO TODAY. ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN WARMING AND DRYING CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO EASTERN OREGON. A THERMAL TROUGH AND OFFSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AT THE COAST LATE TODAY AND MORESO TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER AT THE COAST AND MOST OF THE WEST SIDE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
332 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SURROUNDING WATERS WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST-WEST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND TENNESSEE.
LOW PRESSURE OVER W KS WILL SLIDE SLOWLY E ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN ADDITIONAL LOW OVER E MT EARLY THIS MORNING PUSHES A TROUGH ACROSS W AND CENTRAL SD BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. BASICALLY MAKING ONE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM FAR E MT THROUGH W SD TO OK.
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OVER NW CA WILL BRING A WARMING TREND INLAND AND DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AT THE COAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH MID-WEEK.
458 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 CHANGES TO FORECAST -- THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS DISCONTINUED FOR ALL BUT THE LOWER STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
WE HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HIGH SIERRA TODAY AND TUESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PAC NW TODAY. ONCE IT CLEARS THE ROCKIES THE EPAC RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISING THROUGH THE WEEK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR.
633 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
605 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2016 CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE TODAY INTO TOMORROW IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. WITH HIGHS RANGING BETWEEN THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S TODAY AND THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S ON TUESDAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY REACH THE LOWER VALLEY LATER TONIGHT OR OVERNIGHT. BUT NOT LIKELY FOR THE LOWER VALLEY AND TAF SITES. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY. AN EMBEDDED S/W TROUGH WILL HELP DEVELOP CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WHICH SOME WILL MOVE INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING UNTIL THE S/W TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH AND DRY AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND IT.
THE H5 PATTERN HAD CLOSED LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING WITH A LOBE OF ENERGY LIFTING NORTH ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. A SECOND AREA OF H5 LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES BACK TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA. WITH THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS. THIS IS SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT CLOSED LOW TRACKS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.