Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
No travel impacts are expected as temperatures remain well above freezing this afternoon. The region remains under the influence of the sizable, lumbering, 500mb trough centered over the Great Lakes. Overnight, temperatures will dip into the mid 20s for most, with minimum wind chill values Saturday morning approaching the low 20s and upper teens. With the exit of the upper low to the east, boundary layer flow will shift more southerly by Saturday afternoon, generally in response to an approaching open short wave off the northern Plains for Saturday Night/Sunday Morning.
Although, with drier air currently present in the lower levels, it is possible that these light showers are having trouble reaching the ground. Colder air is expected to make its way into the CWA behind the boundary as high pressure builds in. The main "threat" in the period will be the below normal temperatures with many locations dropping below freezing during the overnight hours.
However, farther east at central Kansas locations such as Larned and Pratt, away from the effects of downslope flow, highs will only reach the lower 60s. A cold front will knock highs back into the upper 50s to lower 60s for Sunday.
531 AM CST Sat Nov 13 2021 (Today) Temperatures continue to fall off, with a large portion of northeast OK and northwest AR at or below freezing at this time. The forecast area will remain on the backside of the exiting longwave trof across the eastern US, with another day of below normal temperatures expected.
A perusal of Eppley wind roses shows that November is the windiest month of the year's second half and serves as the transition from the warmer months when southerly winds dominate and the winter months when northerly winds are most common.
Overnight lows should remain well above freezing tonight/early Sunday morning.
There will be a cold front that moves in, but the models have some differences in the timing of the front.
237 AM MST Sat Nov 13 2021 A warm front will move to the east this morning. Some rain and freezing rain is occurring early this morning along and ahead of this front. Have a Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 6 am MST in the northeast where temperatures are currently below freezing. A cold front will quickly follow the warm front this morning. Will also issue a Lake Wind Advisory for the northern half of Fort Peck Lake that is not in the High Wind Warning. Winds diminish tonight with a high pressure system that quickly moves to the east Sunday morning. A warm front moves through the area during the day on Sunday which will bring the possibility for a mix of rain and snow in the morning and rain in the afternoon and evening.
941 AM EST Sat Nov 13 2021 High pressure will pass south of the area today and tonight. A cold front will then move through the area Sunday afternoon and evening.
Another fast moving clipper system will advect across the region today and support warmer, but windy conds once again. Cannot rule out a few gusts around 60 mph in the adv areas this evening with the sfc cold front pushing through the area. Winds will peak in the afternoon over NW SD, and this evening most other places with the sfc cold front, waning overnight.
/issued 355 AM CST Sat Nov 13 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): The most recent surface analysis shows a cold front south of the BRO CWFA, with KBRO Doppler radar showing isolated convection moving south and about to cross the Rio Grande River. Overall, dry weather will dominate through the period as 500 mb high pressure builds over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley in the wake of the cold front and an associated deep mid-level trough.
429 AM EST Sat Nov 13 2021 High pressure will pass south of the area today and tonight. A cold front will then move through the area Sunday afternoon and evening.
657 AM EST Sat Nov 13 2021 A dry cold front will sweep across the Carolinas Saturday. Rain-free weather will continue as high pressure across the southern Plains builds eastward.
424 AM MST Sat Nov 13 2021 It'll be a generally quiet and seasonably warm start to the weekend across the Western Slope as high pressure builds off the coast of the southwestern CONUS throughout the day. As the high's center remains situated off the coast of California, northwest flow aloft will keep its hold over eastern Utah and western Colorado. Another factor will be the integration of drier air as a result of the building ridge with HREF guidance showing the persistent low and midlevel clouds beginning to dissipate along the Continental Divide throughout the morning. This will be in response to the aforementioned high pressure center expanding eastward with precipitable water values dropping by at least 0.
Cold front has worked its way through the mid state, and most of the area already in the 30s on the way to freezing temps for most. Drier conditions will move in today in the wake of the cold front, but with high temps struggling to get to 50 for most of the area. The upper trough will continue eastward today, but with cold temps aloft lows tonight will again get to freezing for most, and the mid to upper 20s on the Plateau.
328 AM CST Sat Nov 13 2021 Today and Tonight: Cooler than normal and dry through the period. Early morning surface analysis showed the dry reinforcing cold front south of our CWA with a >1024mb high centered over the southern Plains.
Temperatures at 3 AM range from the upper 30s well inland to the low 60s at the beaches. As the high settles on in during the day today, winds area wide will weaken/relax, and we might see an increase in high clouds moving into the area from the north.
511 AM EST Sat Nov 13 2021 A long wave trough axis stretches from the Great Lakes to the eastern Pacific. Deep southwesterlies continue to stream across the Keys, although the gradient in the lowest levels is flat and weak. Temperatures are in the mid 70s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. High pressure over the southern Plains will slide slowly to the southeast then east over the next couple of days.
316 AM MST Sat Nov 13 2021 High pressure will continue to build into the region through the weekend.
A cold front will push through the Panhandles this evening shifting the winds around to the northwest and north tonight.
High pressure is building into the region and temps have fallen into the 30s with some sub freezing temps across northern parts of the Mid-South. High pressure will shift to the Lower MS Valley which should result in better radiational cooling conds across north MS. Winds will decouple and temps should fall to the freezing mark across much of NE MS and will go ahead and issue a freeze warning for NE NS with a frost advisory for parts of NW MS.
In response to the southwesterly surface flow and associated downslope warming, temperatures this afternoon will rebound above normal into the lower and middle 70s for most, with lower 80s possible through portions of the Rio Grande Valley. Light winds and clear skies overnight tonight will yield another cool night, though lows will be closer to normal in the lower and middle 40s for most, with lower 50s possible across southern and western areas. A weak cold front will sag into the region Sunday with little fanfare aside from a northerly to northeasterly wind shift.
At the surface, ridging extends from central TX into central KS. Upper pattern will remain fairly unchanged to start the work week as lee troughing continues to develop. So once again the main effect this wave will have will be to push a cold front through the area Tue night into Wed morning, providing below normal temps for Wed-Fri. For tonight, a cold front will move south through the region, switching winds to northwest, with gusts once again up to around 20 kts or so.
847 AM CST Sat Nov 13 2021 Sunny skies prevailed across the cntrl TN Valley this Sat morning, as high pressure out of the srn Plains builds ewd into the region. Temps are struggling to climb into the lower 40s, after their lows earlier in the mid 30s/near 40F. Highs later today will do good to reach the 50F mark, as cooler/drier air continues to filter into the area from the NW. Clear skies, light winds, and good long wave radiational cooling should allow night time temperatures to cool to or just below freezing for much of the Tennessee Valley. In these events, some locations especially near large bodies of water and in the higher terrain should remain a few degrees warmer this go around. Another cold and frosty Sunday night with lows in the low/mid 30s.
Will limit pops to chance due to the dry air in the lower levels. A surface cold front quickly moves southeast across the area this evening, and expect a surge of gusty northwest winds behind the front.
Cyclonic flow around the low has led to breezy W to NW winds in E Iowa/NW Illinois, and a continued influx of low stratus. Temps locally were in the low to mid 30s. Sub freezing max wetbulb aloft temps and near freezing surface temps should support snow on the leading edge of the precip for roughly a 1-3 hr window. As the low tracks toward southern Lake Michigan, some wrap around light snow could drop into far NW Illinois after 4 AM and linger into early Sunday AM. Sunday The main story will be windy and cold conditions on the backside of the low.
Overnight, a warm front pushes back into the area, producing areas of rain, snow and a slight chance of freezing rain.
306 AM CST Sat Nov 13 2021 The overall synoptic pattern will remain dominated today by large- scale upper troughing encompassing much of the eastern CONUS. Northwesterly upper flow will therefore persist over West Texas, with a thin layer of upper moisture and associated high cloudiness observed within this flow early this morning rotating up and around upper ridging to our west. Temperatures will be pleasantly warmer today thanks to this dry, downsloping surface flow, with most locations seeing afternoon highs in the low 70s. Mild lows compared to last night are expected tonight as winds remain slightly elevated owing to a residual surface pressure gradient in place as broadening high pressure lingers over the Gulf of Mexico.
Some light rain and snow early this morning across northern sections of the forecast area ahead of strong but mostly dry cold front. A colder airmass behind this mornings cold front Today and tonight. This will bring lows down below freezing areawide. Discussion: At this time a strong cold front was passing through the western part of the forecast area with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies north and partly cloudy to mostly clear south. But the highest peaks could get a half inch or so. Lows will drop below freezing across much of the area. Outside of these areas there is no Freeze Warning because temperatures have already been below freezing at least one time.
Today Through Sunday Night Strong region of high pressure was noted over Nrn TX/Srn OK this AM, w/ subsidence keeping clear skies over the FA, and light N/Wrly winds. Recent mesoanalysis indicated strong H500 troughing extending over the Ern half of the US, w/ the upstream half of this trough positioned over the Natural State. Through the day Sat, high pressure to the west wl meander E/wrd across the AR/LA border region, w/ seasonably cool afternoon high temps in the mid 50s, and low temps Sat night falling back into the upper 30s. High temps Sun afternoon wl top out in the low 60s over Cntrl and Srn AR, w/ cooler temps in the upper 50s over the N/Wrn portion of the FA.
650 AM EST Sat Nov 13 2021 High pressure will pass south of the area today and tonight. A cold front will then move through the area Sunday afternoon and evening.
/issued 306 AM CST Sat Nov 13 2021/ The overall synoptic pattern will remain dominated today by large- scale upper troughing encompassing much of the eastern CONUS. Northwesterly upper flow will therefore persist over West Texas, with a thin layer of upper moisture and associated high cloudiness observed within this flow early this morning rotating up and around upper ridging to our west. Temperatures will be pleasantly warmer today thanks to this dry, downsloping surface flow, with most locations seeing afternoon highs in the low 70s. Mild lows compared to last night are expected tonight as winds remain slightly elevated owing to a residual surface pressure gradient in place as broadening high pressure lingers over the Gulf of Mexico.
/22/ Today and Tonight: Cooler than normal and dry through the period. Early morning surface analysis showed the dry reinforcing cold front south of our CWA with a >1024mb high centered over the southern Plains.
08Z water vapor imagery showed a high amplitude trough moving into the eastern half of the U. At the surface, high pressure was centered over western OK with all of the low level moisture shunted off the gulf coast. In general think high will be in the 50s with parts of north central KS seeing the warmer temps as winds become southerly there sooner in the day. Forecast soundings show plenty of warm air in the lowest several thousand feet near the surface that temps are expected to remain in the upper 30s and lower 40s with precip type as all rain.
At the surface, ridging extends from central TX into central KS. Upper pattern will remain fairly unchanged to start the work week as lee troughing continues to develop. So once again the main effect this wave will have will be to push a cold front through the area Tue night into Wed morning, providing below normal temps for Wed-Fri.
Areas of night and morning dense fog will prevail across the San Joaquin Valley through the weekend as high pressure remains in place.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): The most recent surface analysis shows a cold front south of the BRO CWFA, with KBRO Doppler radar showing isolated convection moving south and about to cross the Rio Grande River. Overall, dry weather will dominate through the period as 500 mb high pressure builds over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley in the wake of the cold front and an associated deep mid-level trough.
945 AM EST Sat Nov 13 2021 A dry cold front will sweep across the Carolinas Saturday. Rain-free weather will continue as high pressure across the southern Plains builds eastward.
1110 AM MST Sat Nov 13 2021 It'll be a generally quiet and seasonably warm start to the weekend across the Western Slope as high pressure builds off the coast of the southwestern CONUS throughout the day. As the high's center remains situated off the coast of California, northwest flow aloft will keep its hold over eastern Utah and western Colorado. Another factor will be the integration of drier air as a result of the building ridge with HREF guidance showing the persistent low and midlevel clouds beginning to dissipate along the Continental Divide throughout the morning. This will be in response to the aforementioned high pressure center expanding eastward with precipitable water values dropping by at least 0.
/Tonight through Sunday Night/ Upper-level ridge across the Rockies to maintain northwest flow aloft across the ArkLaTex through Sunday night supporting mostly clear skies and stable conditions. Overnight low temperatures to fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s, with the warmer temperatures across mainly deep east Texas. High temperatures on Sunday to climb into the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
Otherwise, a line of showers along and ahead of a cold front continues to move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and is approaching the FL west coast as of 10 AM. The forecast is in good shape with the only noteworthy change being extending the higher rain chances (30%) farther east toward northern Brevard based on short- term guidance. As the front passes, west winds will veer north to northwest, ushering in much cooler and drier air beginning in the afternoon. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions with a line of scattered showers moving through the area this afternoon into early evening along and ahead of a cold front. Isolated to scattered showers with a few thunderstorms will be possible through the late afternoon across the local Atlantic waters as a cold front pushes to the southeast.
With skin temperatures expected to be near or below freezing across central and northern interior zones most of the night, we can expect some accums even on paved surfaces, and it may be cold enough across northern zones for some icing up of roads. The f-gen weakens and snow tapers off Sunday afternoon as the low circulation moves east, but northwest flow lake effect snow showers develop on the backside for Sunday night.
it looks like much of north Mississippi and the Memphis metro area will make it into the low 50s, with the largest portion of the Midsouth in the upper 40s. Expect lows in the low to mid 30s. High pressure is building into the region and temps have fallen into the 30s with some sub freezing temps across northern parts of the Mid-South. High pressure will shift to the Lower MS Valley which should result in better radiational cooling conds across north MS. Winds will decouple and temps should fall to the freezing mark across much of NE MS and will go ahead and issue a freeze warning for NE NS with a frost advisory for parts of NW MS.
145 PM MST Sat Nov 13 2021 A windy, warmer patter will continue through the short term forecast.
A cold front Sunday night will bring a reinforcing shot of colder air but little precipitation.
A reinforcing cold front pushed through our region last night and this has allowed cooler, drier air to push into our region. /28/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: Cooler than normal and dry through the period. Early morning surface analysis showed the dry reinforcing cold front south of our CWA with a >1024mb high centered over the southern Plains.
1208 PM EST Sat Nov 13 2021 A dry cold front will sweep across the Carolinas Saturday. Rain-free weather will continue as high pressure across the southern Plains builds eastward.
A cold front, however, will move through the Big Country Sunday morning, along a San Angelo to Brownwood line midday, then stall out along the I-10 corridor late afternoon.
Surface winds don't fully de-couple, so this should allow for warmer low temperatures tonight compared to last night, but still cool. Mixing of the higher momentum aloft downward to the surface will take place late Sunday morning, resulting in a period of breezy southwest winds developing through the Hill Country and I-35 corridor midday before weakening mid to late afternoon as a weak cold front approaches from the north. Global models, and the majority of the high resolution models, including now the 12Z HRRR and 3KM NAM, stall the front weak front near or north of the SJT/EWX CWA border Sunday evening and then wash it out. High temperatures warmer on Sunday, forecast into the upper 70s to low 80s.
As this high pressure system shifts further eastward overnight, a S/SSW wind will develop by tomorrow morning but should remain near or just above 5 knots. Temperatures at 3 AM range from the upper 30s well inland to the low 60s at the beaches. As the high settles on in during the day today, winds area wide will weaken/relax, and we might see an increase in high clouds moving into the area from the north.
VFR will prevail through the TAF period as high pressure builds in from the west. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 32 58 35 53 37 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 31 55 34 48 36 / 0 10 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 30 54 33 49 35 / 0 10 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 27 52 31 45 30 / 0 0 10 0 0 TN.
Most of the area should be as cold or slightly cooler than last night, especially in North Mississippi. Slightly higher dew points along with slightly cooler temperatures should result in more favorable conditions for frost across much of north Mississippi tonight, especially northeast Mississippi.
A cold front will push through the Panhandles tonight. A cold front will push through the Panhandles this evening shifting the winds around to the northwest and north tonight.
151 PM MST Sat Nov 13 2021 Current surface map places low over central North Dakota with cold front through northwest South Dakota/northeast Wyoming. Cold front moves east rapidly this afternoon, with bubble of 3-6mb/3hr pressure rises. Cooler on Sunday, with increasing clouds as warm front lifts northeastward.
(This evening through Sunday) Mostly clear skies this evening and overnight will foster sufficient radiational cooling which will bring the low temperatures down to the lower 40s across the area. A mid-level trough will continue to move across the Midwest this evening and into tomorrow. An attendant surface cold front will move into the area overnight and into the morning. High temperatures tomorrow will be in the low to mid 60s with mostly sunny skies behind the aforementioned cold front.
A short wave trough diving toward the Ohio River valley today will induce enough surface anticyclogenesis over the Central High plains to send a weak cold front across west Texas and southeastern New Mexico Sunday morning, but high temperatures Sunday are forecast to remain near normal.
There will be a very fine line between rain, freezing rain, and snow in places like Libby and if precipitation rates stay high enough, which forecast soundings point to, then snow will be able to last longer before changing to freezing rain or rain.
Gusty nrly winds will continue through the afternoon before relaxing as high pressure builds over the region. Winds will remain light/variable beyond sunrise Sunday as the center of the high passes overhead.
253 PM CST Sat Nov 13 2021 18Z data has high pressure over the Mississippi Valley with a clipper system over northern North Dakota. The exception would be bridges were pavement temperatures would be close to freezing.
823 AM PST Sat Nov 13 2021 High pressure centered off the California coast, will continue to dominate our weather this weekend, with fair skies and very warm days.
(This evening through Sunday) A weak cold front is set to move through eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas late tonight into Sunday morning. In fact, warmer temperatures are anticipated on Sunday.
Water vapor imagery shows an amplified longwave trough digging across the Gulf Coast, with broad, anticyclonic flow in its wake across the Great Plains.
1033 AM EST Sat Nov 13 2021 Composite water vapor imagery highlights a longwave trough along the Gulf Coast slowly pivoting towards the Florida Panhandle, with broad anticyclonic flow over the Great Plains building eastward. The ambient troughing has promoted chaotic skies across the Florida Keys this morning, with stratocumulus low clouds shadowed by cirrus high clouds. From synopsis, as a longwave trough slides off the Eastern Seaboard, high pressure over the southern Plains will continue to build across the northern Gulf Coast this afternoon through Sunday.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night): 500mb trough across the eastern United States and the 500mb ridge across northern Mexico will continue to provide northerly winds aloft across deep south Texas tonight. high pressure across east Texas will settle across the coastal bend of Texas this evening.
We should technically hit highs in the lower 50s, likely directly behind the cold front coming through as we get some enhanced mixing. Increased overall wind speeds ahead of and behind the cold front. There will be a cold front that moves in, but the models have some differences in the timing of the front.
At the surface, ridging extends from central TX into central KS. Upper pattern will remain fairly unchanged to start the work week as lee troughing continues to develop. So once again the main effect this wave will have will be to push a cold front through the area Tue night into Wed morning, providing below normal temps for Wed-Fri. A cold front will sweep southward across the area tonight with main impact a wind shift.
High pressure will build back in by mid week with warming conditions. A couple of dry cold fronts will move through the area during the near term period. The next cold front will move across the area Sunday night, but very little if any moisture is associated with this system.