Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures are already in the low to middle 70s. but a cold front is moving into East Arkansas and will bring cooler air into the region this afternoon. Low pressure was centered over southwest Missouri with a cold front extending south from the low into extreme western Arkansas. This cold front will move rapidly east today reaching the western edge of the forecast area shortly after sunrise and reaching the Tennessee River by this afternoon. Behind the cold front, gusty north winds are expected to blow mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will be much cooler tonight with lows Thursday morning with low to mid 40s. Temperatures will remain below normal on Thursday with highs in the low to mid 60s.
605 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017 Water vapor imagery shows a potent upper low spinning over south central Kansas with the wrap around precip affecting most of northeast and south central KS. Upper low is expected to rapidly lift northeast and will be over northern MO/southern IA by the late afternoon. Frost still looks possible early Thu morning with central KS having the best shot to see temps fall into the low 30s. By Thu afternoon the broad/deep upper low will encompass the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley with nw flow aloft over the Plains. We will finally get back into more spring- like pattern for Fri, with warmer temps and gusty south winds.
In addition to the winds, chances of rain showers will continue Today as the upper level low associated with the surface feature continue to impact the area.
Cooler but dry conditions expected with highs in the mid and upper 60s. (Thursday through Wednesday) Warming trend continues into the weekend, with temperatures warming back into the 80s for the weekend, as an upper level ridge passes across the Southern Plains.
That lull will come to an end over the next couple hours as the deformation precipitation wrapping around the western periphery of the mid/upper low moves through eastern Kansas and western Missouri. At the surface a deepening cyclone will cause winds to pick up as the center of the cyclone pushes into the Mississippi River Valley.
712 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017 A warm front will extend through the forecast area today. The front will lift north of the area tonight ahead of a strong cold front. The cold front will move through the area late tonight. Also, there may be a prolonged period of thunderstorms along the warm front this afternoon into the evening resulting in excessive rainfall.
SFC analysis showing trough axis moving toward the TN river now, with surge of 60+ dews ahead. After 18Z, scattered TSRA will develop as a low pressure system moves along the Ohio Valley and a trailing cold front moves into Mid Tn. For tonight, MVFR cigs with -SHRA will develop as moisture wraps around the low pressure system.
1226 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017 A warm front will extend through the forecast area today. The front will lift north of the area tonight ahead of a strong cold front. The cold front will move through the area late tonight. Also, there may be a prolonged period of thunderstorms along the warm front this afternoon into the evening resulting in excessive rainfall.
A large upper level low in the Gulf of Alaska has several waves rotating around it and a front along the coast.
/Issued 337 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017/ The main upper level low pressure system that helped to produce Christmas in April across the northwestern Panhandles has now moved well east of our region into SE Kansas and SW Missouri.
945 AM PDT Wed Apr 5 2017 Mostly sunny and warm today with high pressure over the region.
A high pressure ridge will move east over the region, allowing mid and (mainly) high clouds to pass overhead. A strong high pressure ridge will gradually be forced east across Montana through Thursday by an approaching low pressure trough from the Pacific Ocean, keeping most of North Central and Southwest Montana dry. Mainly high level cloudiness will move through the ridge today and tonight, but clouds will be fairly thin today, yielding a mostly sunny sky.
Effective warm front roughly positioned from northern Sumter County northeast across southern Bibb County east across southern Talladega County and into southern Cleburne County. The airmass is continuing to rapidly destabilize south of the warm front with temperatures in the low to mid 70's along the U. Highway 80 corridor along with dew points in the lower 70's across our southern tier of counties. We continue to monitor the potential for large hail with thunderstorms near and north of the warm front and for the increasing potential of all convective hazards to the southwest across southern Alabama. The environment remains supportive of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes south of the warm front.
High surface pressure currently extending across south Florida will ease southeastward today and tonight as a cold front advances east/southeastward through the Gulf of Mexico. Although the early morning local sounding indicated an increase in moisture, we remain relatively stable under a low amplitude mid/upper ridge. A cold front will cross the waters surrounding the Florida Keys on Thursday.
Expect this line to continue to move east as the low level jet veers and the best low level moisture convergence pushes east. The upper low which is causing all of this rain will begin to lift out of the area by tonight, causing the showers to end from west to east. Temperatures will drop tonight behind a cold front with lows in the upper 30s. Lows Thursday night may be near the freezing mark in the colder locations.
619 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017 High pressure building behind a cold front that moved across the region overnight will allow for west to northwest winds to increase to around 15 to 20 knots with gusts between 25 to 30 knots this afternoon. The leading edge or surface cold front is punching into the heart of the ArkLaTex right now with NW 12G23KT as of this writing here in SHV.
A cold front will stall and weaken over Western Washington today allowing light rain to continue through tonight. An upper level trough will move across the area Thursday morning extending the rain into early afternoon.
931 AM MDT Wed Apr 5 2017 Upper ridge is building in from the west, with some high cloud spilling into our western cwa. A strong ridge will build over the region leading to a substantial warming trend. Aside from a slight chance of showers in the high country late Thursday night, conditions should be be dry.
Meanwhile, an upper ridge builds over the western CONUS. Upper ridge will move over the Rockies on Thursday. At the surface, high pressure will slide south across the eastern Dakotas, and return flow will set up across western SD.
Threat for a few fast-moving strong to severe storms late Morning Cape sounding shows quite dry airmass in the low and mid levels with some high level moisture which is borne out by the thin cirrus streaming overhead. We are solidly in the warm sector with S/SW flow and strong sfc heating will send high temperatures into the lower 90s areawide before a sea breeze develops, first along the Treasure coast then zippering northward. No changes to current thinking on evolution/timing of prefrontal band of convection toward morning assocd with approaching strong cold front. Breezy southwest flow overnight with fast moving showers/isolated storms 08z-15Z ahead of a cold front.
646 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017 Upper level low will move across the region today with winds increasing to 20 to 25 knots with locally higher gusts from the west to northwest. MVFR ceilings will predominate most of the day but VFR conditions and lighter winds are expected tonight as high pressure builds in. Latest water vapor imagery shows a rather vigorous upper trough over the nations mid section with some rather chilly temperatures aloft. In fact, the NAM is cold enough that a snow flake or two can not be ruled out across the higher terrain but surface temps would not support any issues. Northwest flow will continue on Thursday but high pressure will be building in to provide a dry day with warmer temperatures. The high pressure will dominate through the remainder of the period.
After 18Z, scattered TSRA will develop as a low pressure system moves along the Ohio Valley and a trailing cold front moves into Mid Tn. For tonight, MVFR cigs with -SHRA will develop as moisture wraps around the low pressure system.
1010 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017 Latest surface analysis shows the cold front in the vicinity of the Atchafalaya Basin extending southwestward into the outer coastal waters. Behind the front, temperatures have dropped into the low to mid 60s and a reservoir of air in the mid to upper 60s lies further to the northwest in TX. A cold front will sweep across the area this morning with skies then rapidly clearing. /issued 523 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017/ Temperatures around the region are holding in the lower 70s ahead of the latest front that is expected through southeast Texas well before the noon hour and exiting south central Louisiana coast by the afternoon hours. Lafayette will be a bit warmer today than most locations as the front will take a bit longer to push through.
Cold front still expected to bring a threat of strong to severe storms tonight. Next impacts will be the potential for some low clouds again around PGD, RSW, and FMY later tonight, and thunderstorms associated with a strong cold front after 06Z for TPA, PIE, SRQ, and LAL. A strong cold front may be preceded by strong to severe storms, followed by gusty winds from the northwest.
Effective warm front was recently analyzed moving north into southern Sumter County east across central Chilton County further east into central Randolph County. The atmosphere will continue to destabilize from south to north as the warm front lifts further northward. For the next few hours will continue to monitor for a primary hail threat and secondary damaging wind threat along/north of the effective warm front as it moves into our northern counties. Sounding data from 12Z was incomplete due to convective activity that disrupted the latter portion of the flight, however sampling near the warm front at that time yielded 45 knot 0-3 km bulk shear values along with surface to 1 km storm relative helicity values of 381 m2/s2.
This watch will not remain active long and will be canceled once the cold front passes through the watch area eliminating any hazardous wx risk. /issued 353 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017/ Cold front is progressing east this morning and is moving through the Shreveport and Houston areas at the moment. The first is the polar jet with the cold front the second is the subtropical jet with the warm front. As the cold front moves through the area, it will dry things out and send any possibility of a severe wx risk eastward. The trough that is associated with the cold front is relatively broad. Basically, there will be a period of about 2 hours while the trough is moving through that winds will fall below advisory criteria before the stronger west to northwest winds move in.
A warm front is accelerating northward in far South Alabama this morning, which has caused elevated supercell development. This batch of storms will probably exit into Georgia around Noon or 1 PM, leaving being somewhat cooler air across East AL and West GA which may play a crucial role in tornado potential later in the afternoon. Another round of severe storms should initiate around 3-4 PM along the cold front from Northwest AL southward to around Demopolis.
1040 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017 Base of the upper trof making its way across our area this morning. Otherwise, deep low pressure at the sfc to our nw making for a very tight pressure gradient, and therefore winds are quite gusty. /issued 619 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017/ High pressure building behind a cold front that moved across the region overnight will allow for west to northwest winds to increase to around 15 to 20 knots with gusts between 25 to 30 knots this afternoon. The leading edge or surface cold front is punching into the heart of the ArkLaTex right now with NW 12G23KT as of this writing here in SHV.
/issued 311 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017/ An upper level trough is over the central part of the country with west to northwest flow over the CWA. A cold front is moving through the area with northerly winds. The upper trough will move toward the east coast on Thursday with southerly winds returning to West Texas and southeast New Mexico.
Clearing thereafter with lighter winds and few clouds as upper ridge builds over NM.
634 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017 Gusty northwest winds will persist today behind last night's cold front. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail as upper level ridging builds in from the west. /ISSUED 313 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017/ The cold front has cleared all of North Texas early this morning as evidenced by a wind shift to the northwest, much cooler temperatures, and a broken line of precipitation now to the southeast of the region. High pressure will build into the Southern Plains today and will be centered over Texas tonight. Lows tonight should fall into the low/mid 40s areawide with a few outlying spots falling into the upper 30s.
The low pressure system has moved off to the east ending most of the snow showers over the region. Behind it upper level ridging will increase with QG subsidence increasing. Temperatures for today will be in the lower 50s under partly cloudy skies.
High clouds are wrapping around the western edge of the low while additional low clouds are moving south out of Colorado and Kansas this morning. There will likely be a few spots that could briefly hit freezing but temperatures upstream show that most areas are holding in the mid to upper 30s. Any location across the forecast area will have a chance to hit freezing especially if the wind goes totally calm which a few models are hinting at. The best chances for this are across our usually cooler northwestern quarter of the forecast area and have undercut guidance lows across this area accordingly. Upper ridging will build eastward out of the Rockies late week before yielding to southwest flow aloft ahead of broad troughing moving through the Intermountain West this weekend.
Building upper ridge from the west will skies mostly clear for most of today. Temperatures will be somewhat warmer than yesterday. Upper ridge into eastern Montana tonight and Thursday. Will see some mid and high clouds tonight as a warm front moves through the area. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees warmer on Thursday. Dry weather will continue into Thursday Night with upper ridge over the area.
Low pressure was centered over southwest Missouri with a cold front extending south from the low into extreme western Arkansas. This cold front will move rapidly east today reaching the western edge of the forecast area shortly after sunrise and reaching the Tennessee River by this afternoon. Behind the cold front, gusty north winds are expected to blow mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will be much cooler tonight with lows Thursday morning with low to mid 40s. Temperatures will remain below normal on Thursday with highs in the low to mid 60s.
A 105-kt upper-level jet streak still was digging behind the low. 0C+ moisture extended east of the low across eastern KS to southeast IA, but 8C+ dewpoints were a long ways south, in southern to eastern TX and along the FL-GA border into FL. Main forecast concerns are potential for showers and isolated storms this afternoon, along with exiting rain associated with the upper low. Showers and any isolated thunder will diminish in the early evening hours, with clearing (!) from west to east as the upper-level low pulls away and mid-level ridging approaches. Temperatures will be on the chilly side tonight, with near-freezing lows possible in northeast NE. Latest coordination indicates the area is not susceptible yet to temperatures near or just below freezing, and so these temperatures will go without any frost or freeze headlines.
Mostly cloudy and 7-12 degrees warmer today than yesterday under the influence of southerly winds.
A cold front will move through the area from the northwest beginning at 05/15Z and exiting by 06/00Z. Meanwhile, a strong cold front will move across the area today.
At the surface, a few showers are noted along the Florida east coast this morning where easterly flow from the Gulf Stream is lifting over the cooler waters nearer to the Florida coast. Expect highs in the lower to middle 80s, which will be a little cooler than recent afternoons.
110 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 A warm front will move north of the forecast area this evening. A cold front will begin to move toward the region Wednesday night and across the forecast area Thursday.
With clear skies and dry air in place, a large ridge valley split has developed with a few valley locations near 50 degrees while ridge tops remain in the mid 60s. High pressure will remain in control today with good mixing and continued southwest flow. This will once again allow temperatures to shoot into the low 80s for much of the area this afternoon, again threatening record highs. These clouds will gradually build down overnight tonight into tomorrow morning as the cold front approaches Kentucky.
402 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 A cold front just to our north will stall today as low pressure moves northeast out of the central Plains to the central Great Lakes. The low will continue northeast tonight dragging the cold front through the region overnight into Thursday.
The low level flow will weaken over the Victoria Crossroads before daybreak.
642 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 High pressure over the Carolinas provides a warm southwest flow through tonight. A cold front crosses Thursday.
1105 PM MDT Tue Nov 1 2016 The approaching splitting trough has left general instability across the region today and a weak cold front moving west to east through Utah. Left the mention of tstorms out but we could get a couple of isolated strikes as the trough approaches. The deformation zone between the split trough will remain over eastern Utah and western Colorado on Wednesday. In the meantime, the southern split of the trough will develop into a 570 mb H5 low over Arizona by midday Wednesday. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will wrap into the closed low over Arizona on Thursday, then shift northward toward the Four Corners.
Pattern synopsis and forecast: Pretty quiet night in the north woods, with much drier air in place behind a cold front that was settling in srn lower michigan. This energy was working primarily along/north of the cold front back in the Iowa/MO border. The fog across the M-55 corridor may thin to some degree over the next few hours as the near sfc layer dries further as the cold front dips a bit further south. Pattern synopsis/Expected evolution: Amplified upper pattern across the CONUS for the end of the week, with a secondary cold front and associated vorticity maxima bringing a quick shot of seasonably cool air the Great Lakes. Rising heights and upper ridging gradually builds into the Great Lakes over the weekend, with dry conditions and moderating temperatures.
Medium A broad positive tilt mid level trough will shift from northern WI into the OH Valley by days end. Any precipitation associated with this trough is proggd to be to our east or northeast. Weak cold advection is proggd with a glancing shot of the low level thermal trough.
Upper air analysis last evening showed a ridge over the eastern half of the country and a trough from the northern Rockies to Baja California. Models are in good agreement of an upper level high closing off over the Gulf and a low closing off over the southwest. Beneath this pattern a cold front will move through west Texas today and reach our northern border by Thursday morning and move through our CWA during the day.
Cloud cover will likely keep temperatures from dropping as low as last night, with tonight's lows generally ranging from the lower-mid 60s across our area. This will increase the low level easterly flow advecting more moisture in from the Atlantic. For Wednesday night through Thursday night, the upper pattern transitions to become highly amplified with a ridge building over the western 2/3rd of the CONUS and a deepening trough down the eastern seaboard. This pattern change will send a cold front down into our region but little or no rain is expected with the front at this time. Also, the cooler and much drier airmass won't arrive until beyond the short term period. Look for a continuation of above seasonal temperatures with highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows from the upper 50s to lower 60s.
/issued 830 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016/ A quiet evening with high pressure ridging over the state and easterly flow continuing.
352 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 High pressure will build over the region through mid week.
649 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 A warm front will lift northeast through Pennsylvania today. A cold front will push southeast across the state on Thursday.
404 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016 An upslope sfc regime has enveloped the Four-State region the last few days, resulting in dewpoints surging into the lower-middle 60s early this morning. The UA ridge that was once a dominate synoptic feature for the region the last few days is now centered across the southeast CONUS, courtesy of an UA low across the Desert southwest. Concurrently, a broad UA trough translating across the Great Lakes region and the northeast CONUS will send down a cold front tomorrow.
At the surface a weak cold front was moving southeast across Eastern Colorado and Western Nebraska. During the overnight and into the early morning hours moisture advection across the northeast quadrant of the Tri-State Area combined with strengthening lift from a 600mb short wave trough may lead to some isolated storms developing. With a slightly cooler air mass in place, highs for today will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday. This evening drier air will accompany the upper level trough axis moving across the northern half of the plains. Lows will be a few degrees cooler than last night due to the cooler air mass in place and favorable environment for radiational cooling.
Weak surface ridging will move across the area into Thursday morning, bringing light winds to most locations through the night.
141 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 Southerly flow in advance of a cold front will continue through Wednesday evening. A cold front will move through late Wednesday night into Thursday. Mid level ridge to continue to build over the region overnight into Wednesday. With high pressure off to the east southerly flow will continue into the overnight hours. Rain showers will move into the region beginning Wednesday night in advance of a cold front. The cold front will move through late Wednesday night into Thursday.
Upper ridge will continue to build today, resulting in mostly clear skies. The ridge will shift east tonight as a southwesterly flow aloft sets up over the region through Thursday.
Some stratus or/and patchy fog now looks less likely near and east of Dodge City towards morning as moisture advection is very weak near a stalled out cold front. Highs today look to be in the upper 60s to around 70, with warmer mid to upper 70s in parts of south central Kansas from Ashland to Pratt.
/issued 923 PM CDT Tue Nov 1 2016/ Expect quiet weather overnight as high pressure remains in control. Dry weather and above normal temperatures will continue to prevail across the forecast area over the next 24 hours, as high pressure at the surface and aloft remain in control of our weather. Lows tonight will also be a tad warmer than previous nights as temperatures range from the mid 50s to lower 60s.