Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
MAIN ISSUE IS THE TIMING OF THE SECONDARY SURGE OF RIDGE WITH WIND SHIFT AND INCREASE OF WIND. BUT REMAIN EAST AT KLRD AS RIDGE DOES NOT QUITE GET THAT FAR WEST. A COLD FRONT. AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVG S OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS S TX IN ITS WAKE. FRI'S HIGHS WILL BE A TAD COOLER BUT GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
/issued 326 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016/ (Tonight and Friday) The cold front has moved south of I-10, resulting in northeast winds, generally between 10-15 mph, across all of west central TX. Temperatures currently range from the mid 50s in the Big Country to the low/mid 60s over the Concho Valley and northwest Hill Country. This will allow temperatures to fall to near or just below freezing across much of the CWA by Friday morning.
349 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016 UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING OVER THE MID SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH CONTINUED COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY.
Unseasonably warm conditions are expected Saturday afternoon with highs in the lower 70s across much of Eastern Oklahoma.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DROP INTO NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE GULF COAST WITH MORE DRY AND COOL WEATHER EXPECTED. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 60S.
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U. WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. DRY, STABLE, AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 60S SOME AREAS. THE RIDGE BECOMES FLATTENED FRIDAY NIGHT AS A PACIFIC UPPER TROF RAPIDLY MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS NEAR GLACIER NATIONAL PARK. THE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
So, the surface pressure pattern will feature ridging spreading into the Tri-State region from the west. The only symptom of the aforementioned trough will be a resultant cold pool aloft that we'll be able to mix into this afternoon.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT COLD AIR AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S BY SUNRISE. UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT. VFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY 14Z. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROF WILL APPROACH THE CWA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY CI CLOUDS ACROSS BOTH TAF SITES.
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL SWITCH BACK TO THE SE.
SOUTHERN STATES HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME OUR PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE THIS WEEKEND.
THE NEXT VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRACKING SE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL AID IN ESPECIALLY IN THE NW ZONES CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE. THE UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FLATTENS/BECOMES MORE ZONAL. A FINAL SHORT WAVE DIGS INTO THE UPPER TROF AND SWINGS INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ON THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT HAD PASSED THROUGH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BRINGING MORE COOL AIR INTO THE REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. FOR SATURDAY WITH WARMER HEIGHTS PUSHING INTO THE ARKLAMISS.
Northwesterly flow aloft remained in place over the region as the main mid-level trough was stretched across the eastern U. An embedded wave within the western edge of this trough was noted on water vapor imagery with low clouds continuing to slide southward across eastern Kansas this afternoon. The combination of light winds and mostly clear skies will lead to decent radiational cooling and low temperatures tonight plunging into the low/mid 20s. Models show another weak mid-level trough skimming across the area tomorrow, however expect nothing more than some mid-level clouds to develop during the day.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
355 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016 UPPER TROF OVERHEAD RESULTING IN SOME SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS. WHICH MAY HAVE A VERY MINOR IMPACT ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. A WEAK SURFACE TROF PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH.
01Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE C PLAINS WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING JUST OFF THE UPPER TX COAST.
TONIGHT-SAT: RAPID/LOW AMPLITUDE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
403 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
812 PM PST THU FEB 25 2016 A ridge of high pressure will deliver one more day of mild conditions. This will result in cooler, wet, and unsettled weather. Scattered mid and high clouds will move across the region tonight ahead of an approaching upper level trough. A weak disturbance over topped the ridge this afternoon and resulted in thickening high clouds this afternoon.
1258 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACCOMPANIED THE PASSAGE OF THE TROF AND CONTINUED IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. THE TROF WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS. MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LACKING WITH THE NEXT TROF. AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE LARGE WITH THE LOW CENTER.
LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VARIABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD. SOUTH WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE WILL THEN DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. IT PROBABLY SHOULD BE PROTECTED REGARDLESS OF WHETHER FREEZING TEMPS ARE FORECAST AT YOUR LOCATION OR NOT. SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOS HAS BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE COOL FOR HIGH TEMPS RECENTLY SO HAVE BUMPED THESE UPWARD INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
303 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016 THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY YESTERDAY EVENING IS FINALLY MOVING THROUGH. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS HAVE HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SO FAR TONIGHT. HOWEVER, LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING TO OUR NORTHWEST AND FOR LOCATIONS THAT HAVE CLEARED TEMPS QUICKLY DROP DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION AND WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY, TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM EACH DAY.
1224 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND EXPECTED. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
244 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016 STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY. /ISSUED 937 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016/ NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH CONTINUING THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AND AS COLD AS THE MID 20S ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR.
THE NEXT VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRACKING SE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL AID IN ESPECIALLY IN THE NW ZONES CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE. THE UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FLATTENS/BECOMES MORE ZONAL. A FINAL SHORT WAVE DIGS INTO THE UPPER TROF AND SWINGS INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WHICH DRAGS A ALTHOUGH THIS FRONT AND MUCH OF ITS MARGINALLY COOLER AIR IS LIKELY TO HOLD NORTH OF NC. WITH SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH CENTRAL NC WED MORNING (ECMWF) OR WED EVENING (GFS). THE OP GFS AGREES FAIRLY WELL WITH THE GEFS MEAN REGARDING TROUGH/FRONT SPEED. SO EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THU. IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
303 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016 TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL LEVELS FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE REGION.
RIDGING ALOFT FLATTENS AND MOVES OVERHEAD. INDUCING A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LEE TROUGH AND PRODUCING A RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT. ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS FROM WHEATLAND TO CHEYENNE WHERE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL. PREFER THE WARMER GFS MOS GUIDANCE AND WILL STICK CLOSE TO THIS.
256 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
149 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016 LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE AREA. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 30S NW TO MID-UPPER 30S SE. THIS HIGH THEN SETTLES ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES THRU THE WEEKEND. A DRY/WEAK TROF MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT AND SAT.
BUT BRIEFLY INCREASES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
/issued 151 PM CST THU FEB 25 2016/ A cold front continues to move through the forecast area this afternoon and is currently located near the Pecos River Valley.
346 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016 THE REGION WILL BE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF OF A RIDGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AS A FAIRLY WEAK SURFACE TROF PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH HELPING TO INCREASE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS BEHIND THE TROF WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER THE TROF SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE IT FIZZLES AS A STRONGER LEE TROF BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH WILL BACK WINDS TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ACROSS THE FA.
COLD ADVECTING TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE INTENSE CYCLONE THAT TRACKED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE CWA FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
THIS TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL KEEP OUR WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO TRANSLATE INTO THE PLAINS BY MID DAY SATURDAY WHICH MEANS LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE A LEE-SIDE TROUGH TO STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THE MODELS SHOW WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS DOMINATING AND BRINGING IN THE VERY WARM AIR. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP QUITE A BIT.
Despite the cloud cover for much of the area for at least part of the night, the low temperatures should still be at least slightly below normal for late February due to the diminishing winds along with relatively low surface dew points dropping into the lower 20s. Winds should be calming down this evening too as the pressure gradient slackens and high pressure drops in over the eastern Plains. Wind will turn to the west-southwest Friday afternoon as the ridge axis passes east of the area helping to push highs back up to near or sightly above normal.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE ONLY AFFECT BEING A FEW CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW LEADING TO ANOTHER BREEZY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. LOWER WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
336 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
Otherwise, plan on steady temperatures in the low 30s with northwest wind 10 to 15 mph. The synoptic pattern this afternoon features an amplified trough across the east coast, with upstream ridging over the West. The clouds should begin to push off to the east by Friday night as ridging builds into the Ohio Valley.
926 PM PST THU FEB 25 2016 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THIS COMING WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS MOVE BY TO THE NORTH.
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC METRO AREAS AND THE LOWER VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING RIDGE CROSSING OVER THE STATE FOR SATURDAY. BUT BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AS WELL AS THE MANY OF THE HIGHER PEAKS.
A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THE SOUTHWARD MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MS RIVER DELTA EARLY SAT WILL MEANDER EWD AND SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE ERN GULF AND FL DURING THE PERIOD.
500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U. WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS TEXAS TODAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
233 AM MST FRI FEB 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
427 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE WILL RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WILL SEE COOLER THAN NORMAL LOWS AGAIN TONIGHT.
NEXT UPPER TROF/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS CASCADES AROUND SUNSET AND PUSH TO EASTERN PART OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ABOVE 5000. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOLLOWING THE TROF WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FRONT/UPPER TROF MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO INCREASE AFTER 21Z AT KBDN. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. ALSO WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA SATURDAY BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. WEAK RIDGING WILL RETURN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
WE HELD WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS FOR NOW EVEN THOUGH RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE KEYS ON THE CLOUD COVER AND ACTUALLY SUGGESTS LOWS WARMER THAN WE ARE ADVERTISING. THAT WAVE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGH- LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
141 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 AVIATION A WEAK COLD FRONT WASHES OUT OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY RESULTING IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER AREAS AND EAST OF LANSING. OTHERWISE IT WILL PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 80S.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDS NORTH FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION AND ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND TOWARD NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG MIXING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S ON SATURDAY.
355 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015 SCTD STORMS WERE NOTED OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TRRN AT 3 PM. ISOLD TSRA WERE OVER THE HIGH VALLEYS. MORE ISOLD PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE REST OF THE HIGHER TRRN AND VALLEYS.
1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015 THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING THE RIDGE AXIS SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER AND OH RIVER VALLEY REGIONS. WHILE LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WAS CONVERGING ON A BOUNDARY/TROF COMPLEX ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES. WILL WALK OUT THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OUT OF THEN THE MODELS ALL SUGGEST UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO ADJUST EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER TO MID MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING. BUT FEEL WITH CAP AND RIDGE ENHANCEMENT FURTHER TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE DVN CWA. CONTINUED UPPER RIDGE AXIS ADJUSTMENT EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD MAKE FOR A FAIR LATE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
617 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK WIND FLOW.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE.
331 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BRING SEASONABLE WEATHER AND SOMEWHAT LOWER HUMIDITY OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF AREA WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. MID TO UPPER TROUGH HANGING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD UP FROM THE BAHAMAS.
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS BEGINS TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD DURING THE SHORT TERM. AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER WEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES BUT LOCATIONS OUT WEST WILL STILL EXPERIENCE HIGH'S NEAR 101 TO 103 DEGREES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE 500 MB RIDGING STARTS TO ERODE AWAY TOMORROW THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES WILL START TO DECREASE AS THE 500 MB TROFFING STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE HIGHS ON SATURDAY TO BE A BIT LOWER VERSUS TODAY. AS THE TROUGH ORGANIZES OVER THE AREA.
325 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK WIND FLOW.
208 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
A highly amplified n-s upper ridge axis over the High Plains will become oriented sw-ne from the the southern Rockies to the Great Lakes over the weekend.
107 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND CREST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE.
HAZY AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERTOP THE GREAT LAKES.
COLD FRONT IS NOW A BIT SLOWER VS PREVIOUS RUNS. THE EAST STAYS A TAD COOLER AND ISNT EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA.
There have below normal temperatures today as a dry upper level low brushes through to the north. Summer heat returns this weekend as Four Corners ridging expands over the region.
305 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015 FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES/EXCESSIVE HEAT POTENTIAL SATURDAY THEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH COLD FRONT. THERMAL RIDGE AXIS NOSES INTO THE WESTERN FA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND IF SOLAR IS NOT LIMITED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS THIS AREA COULD SEE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S. AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FAR NW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NOSE OF ASSOCIATED JET STREAK ALSO UP IN CANADA SO WILL LIKELY NEED FORCING FROM COLD FRONT TO GET ANY STORMS GOING.
245 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK WIND FLOW.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL LIFT INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA THIS EVENING.
158 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK WIND FLOW.
A SHORT WAVE EJECTING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CAREENING THROUGH NORTHERN IDAHO IS PROVIDING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. A SHALLOW SURFACE COLD FRONT NUDGES INTO NORTHERN UTAH BY SATURDAY MORNING DELIVERING A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
325 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. AFOREMENTIONED S/WV ENERGY IS NOW EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE.
FORECAST PERSISTENCE IN THE SHORT TERM WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WITH A TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA CURRENTLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC. WITH EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA. OVER THE WEEKEND A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHEAR OUT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
258 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015 EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WAS COVERING THE FORECAST AREA AT 19Z. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD.
ANY CLOUD COVER FROM CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN U. WILL ERODE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ESTABLISHING ITSELF NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE BOTH MODELS SHOW WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE ALOFT INVOF FL. THE GFS SHOWS A MID LEVEL COL DEVELOPING OVER FL WITH THE ECM SHOWING NO BREAK IN THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT. WEAK TROUGH OFF THE COAST BREAKS DOWN WITH WINDS BECOMING PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS MAIN TROF AXIS AT 500 MB PUSHES THROUGH EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY.
/ISSUED 352 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015/ UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS TO THE WEST.
THER COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES.
1228 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015 UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS. /ISSUED 357 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015/ A DOMINANT MID AND UPPER RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO. AND IS PROGGED TO ROTATE SLOWLY AND STEADILY SOUTH AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND THE BASE OF THE RIDGE.
1247 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY. AM EXPECTING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
430 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 THANKS TO A STRONG STATIONARY CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE 4 CORNER STATES TODAY. AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN A TROUGHING PATTERN WITH NW FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. IT WILL TRANSITION TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL REMAIN OVER KY OR POINTS JUST SOUTH THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. WITH A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT OF AT LEAST 5 DEGREES LIKELY. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
337 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015 SOME MUCH WELCOME HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY AS THE BASE OF THE EAST COAST TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE AREA.
310 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015 THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT PRODUCED A FEW SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. MAIN CONCERN IN THIS TIME FRAME IS THE LOWS CHANCE OF DIURNALLY- DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PLENTY OF CAPE IS AVAILABLE ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS.
125 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BRING SEASONABLE WEATHER AND SOMEWHAT LOWER HUMIDITY OVER THE WEEKEND. AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO OUR NORTH. A FORMER COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A WEAKNESS ALOFT WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.