Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
327 PM PDT FRI APR 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
BRISK WEST WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL COOLER ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
BUT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL LIKELY TO DROP BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SHOULD HELP KEEP THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ABOVE FREEZING. VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL MAKE IT VERY HARD FOR RAIN TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE NEEDED TO SATURATE THE LOW-LEVELS.
OVERVIEW: FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING LINGERS OVER EASTERN CANADA. CORE OF COLDEST AIR AND CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NRN HUDSON BAY. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND NOSING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LOCAL SFC ANALYSIS DOES REVEAL WEAK TROUGHINESS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND A THIN CORRIDOR OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER EXPANDING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN DOWN INTO PARTS OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. REALLY NOT MUCH HAPPENING IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT AS HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY. WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION FOR PART OF THE DAY AS WELL AS THICKENING CI/CS SPREADING INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
919 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT.
519 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015 A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM SE OK AND EXTREME NE TX TO JUST SOUTH OF I-20 ACROSS N LA. THE UPPER LOW IS DRIFTING OUR WAY WITH LIGHT SHOWERS BRUSHING OVER OUR WESTERN TIER NOW. THE CORE OF THE STILL CLOSED LOW IS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND MOVING NNE NEAR 20 MPH TO JUST EAST OF MIDLAND. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW IS SLOWLY DRIFTING OUR WAY. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED AND BLENDED WITH NEW MEX WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM PICTURE AMONG THE VARIOUS CONTRIBUTORS WITH MAV A TAD COOLER NORTH WHICH HAS BEEN BLENDED INTO TODAY AND TONIGHT.
1104 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST TONIGHT BRINGING THE SURFACE WINDS AROUND TO AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN AND A SUBTLE WARM FRONT GENERATES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURE RIGHT ALONG THE WEAK WARM FRONT. WITH READINGS LIKELY STAYING WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUD COVER. THE COOLER MOS VALUES STILL LOOK FINE IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE THICKEST. LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER 30S.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHERLY WINDS NOW BEING REPORTED AT KTCL AND KEET.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHERLY WINDS NOW BEING REPORTED AT KTCL AND KEET. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH.
310 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS LOCATED FROM NORTHERN INDIANA BACK THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO WESTERN MN. UNDER THIS RIDGE. TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN UNDER THE THICKET BLANKET OF CLOUDS.
556 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS LOCATED FROM NORTHERN INDIANA BACK THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO WESTERN MN. UNDER THIS RIDGE. TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN UNDER THE THICKET BLANKET OF CLOUDS.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.
1136 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR CEILINGS TO BECOME MVFR/IFR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CREEP ABOVE FREEZING BY 18Z AT THE LATEST WHEN ANY SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO DELAYED START AND PRECIP TYPE CHANGE OVER LOOK TO BE MOSTLY UNDER HALF AN INCH FROM MOBRIDGE TO WATERTOWN.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT AND PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTO SOUTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
110 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. FAST MOVING THROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF EARLIER BROUGHT A SW FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CHANGES ARE IN THE OFFING AS A COLD FRONT NEARS FROM THE NORTH. AN UPPER LOW THAT TOOK UP RESIDENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA EARLIER THIS WEEK. WITH A TROUGH SOUTH OF IT TAKING ON A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT FILLS AND WEAKENS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS MOVE SOUTHWARD. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS (WHICH BROUGHT MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THAT AREA) WILL MOVE EASTWARD. AND CONTINUE A COOLER TREND FOR THE FORECAST AREA. ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS. GENERAL ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY VALUES STAY ON THE LOW SIDE. NO THUNDER WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOWS STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
130 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA. THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST TEXAS THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. /ISSUED 444 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015/ UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO WESTERN TEXAS. AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN TEXAS TONIGHT IT OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH.
As axis of surface and upper level troughs move east of the region Wednesday morning cigs should improve after 12z but some moisture lingers and showers will redevelop Wednesday afternoon with surface winds from the W/NW.
/ISSUED 405 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015/ LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT BISECTING THE MID-SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A LINE FROM JACKSON TN TO TUNICA MS. THE FRONT HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OUT WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.
817 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. FAST MOVING THROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
916 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. FAIR AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING A RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST TODAY.
326 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPR MIDWEST WILL MOVE E-SE TO THE LWR GRTLKS BY THU MORNING PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPILLING OVER THE UPR RIDGE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH CLOUDS MAKING SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS AS PAC NW SHRTWV/HIGH PLAINS RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EAST. EXPECT A COMBINATION OF HIGH CLOUDS AND EASTERLY WINDS/MIXING BEHIND DEPARTING RIDGE WILL LIMIT DIURNAL COOLING TONIGHT TO LESS THAN INDICATED BY LATEST MOS FCSTS.
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF CALM WIND AND CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS MODELS INDICATE 925MB TEMPS BELOW FREEZING.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD FROM WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING TO EASTERN TEXAS BY THIS EVENING. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS LOW, WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES, WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO WESTERN KANSAS TODAY.
1010 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY.
357 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH A SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOWING IT. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S AND WITH A COOLER AIR MASS MOVING IN. STARTING WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITUATED OVER THE BAJA. AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IT WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY ALOFT.
WITH A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION ACRS SRN ARK BACK WEST TOWARD THE METROPLEX. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 70S THIS EVENING. FAIR WEATHER HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL BE BREAKING DOWN OVER THE NEXT 12-24 24 HOURS. CUT-OFF LOW OVER NORTHERN OLD MEXICO WILL TREK NORTHEAST TRANSITIONING INTO AN OPEN TROF AS IT ADVANCES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
121 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. FAIR AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
411 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 NW FLOW IS QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SFC EXTENDS FM NORTHWEST TERRITORIES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BUT THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING FM THE WEST GRADUALLY. BUT THAT IS NOT OCCURRING AS OVERALL THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TOO MINIMAL. TEMPS ALOFT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TUESDAY. MIXING HEIGHTS TO 5KFT SHOULD SUPPORT TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW 40S INLAND. TEMPS ALONG LK SUPERIOR REMAIN CHILLY NEAR 30 INTO THE LOW-MID 30S WITH ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE ICE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK RESULTING IN A SLIGHT WARMING AND DRYING TREND.
VERY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES FROM SOUTH DAKOTA/SOUTHWEST MN INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. THE SFC PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND ALLOW WINDS TO SUBSIDE AND BACK TO THE W/SW. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WED AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT BUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEG WARMER AS WELL WITH AFTERNOON READINGS INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER TO MID 40S.
335 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
1139 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2015 06Z TAF issuance Scattered showers and even an isolated TS continue across the area as the upper low moves overhead.
426 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO WEDGE DOWN THE COAST AND ONSHORE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY. TEMPS WILL BE WIDE RANGING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S AT BRUNSWICK TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS SE GA TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS NE FL. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES AND ALSO ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WEST OF THE AREA AT THE SAME TIME AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COASTLINE.
WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 60S RANGE UNDER SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW. THE THICKER CLOUD COVER REMAINS WELL TO THE W OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. EVEN WITH THE HIGHER CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NNE SHOULD ALSO HELP USHER SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY SWD LATE TONIGHT.
BUT WITH THE HIGH ARRIVING NEAR KHTS BY MORNING. AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN UP AND GET ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLIES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW OCCURRING DUE TO SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR FREEZING AND A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ALOFT.
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH CLEARED THE COAST EARLIER IN THE DAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
THE CLOSED LOW OVER TX WILL WEAKEN AND PROGRESS E INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.
AN UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN PART OF THE BLOCKING PATTERN HAS BEEN SITUATED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND IS NOW POISED TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK TO AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE GARDEN CITY/SCOTT CITY AREAS, WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE THE LOWEST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S EXPECTED FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH.
643 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2015 Strong moisture transport was occurring across the southern Plains this afternoon in advance of a large upper level low pressure system.
Tonight NE winds will diminish as high pressure moves into the area. Areas north of a Boonville, MO to Atchison, KS line will experience below freezing temperatures tonight so, any interests that have put out tender vegetation will need to take precautions to preserve those plants. Tomorrow morning, an upper level trough located across northwestern Mexico today, will pull into the southern Plains. Late Tomorrow night the upper level trough will move south of the area and weaken ending rain chances across the area.
/ISSUED 254 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015/ UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA IN DEFORMATION ZONE.
Strong moisture transport was occurring across the southern Plains this afternoon in advance of a large upper level low pressure system.
346 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
Observing the lowering melting layer in precipitation on the Spokane radar this afternoon has increased confidence for snow over Lookout Pass tonight, so an advisory has been issued. The predominant flow switches to the northwest tonight, bringing cooler air aloft to the Northern Rockies. Local road surface models show that road temperatures could approach freezing early Wednesday at those locations, allowing for possible accumulations.
521 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS CUTOFF LOW OVER MEXICO WITH RIDGE EXPECTING ACROSS THE SOUTHER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS TEMPS HAVE SLOWLY MODERATED INTO THE THE LOWER 50S THIS AFTERNOON RH VALUES HAVE DROPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE COLORADO STATE LINE IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
TODAY AND TONIGHT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MAINTAIN A DRY STABLE AIRMASS. HOWEVER A PUSH OF COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL COUNTERACT SOME OF THIS AS OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TODAY INTO THE EVENING AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THU AM. HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S TODAY WITH CLOUDS KEEPING LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 30S FOR TNT.
729 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY AND A RIDGE FROM THE WRN PLAINS INTO WRN CANADA. AND 850 MB TEMPS IN THE - 8C TO -12C RANGE HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 30S EAST TO THE LOW 40S SOUTH AND WEST.
303 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH A SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BY TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE INITIALLY DRY. A SFC COLD FRONT WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN OUR AREA. BUT WITH LACK OF FOCUS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ALOFT FOR US IN THIS MURKY PATTERN.
525 PM PDT TUE MAR 17 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A COOLING TREND TO THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO HELP TO INDUCE A WELL DEFINED EDDY CIRCULATION ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD TO NEAR THE LOS ANGELES/ORANGE COUNTY BORDER.
725 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. FAIR AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
332 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE PULLS OFF AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE OVER IA. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS HIGHS TO A FEW DEGREES WARMER. THIS RESULTS IN H85/H7 TROUGH REACHING IA THU WHERE FORCING IS SOMEWHAT STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED. THERMAL RIDGE WILL THEN NUDGE INTO IA FRI WARMING THINGS TEMPORARILY BEFORE DROPPING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WAVE REACHING PACIFIC NW FRI NIGHT AND TOPPING RIDGE INTO NRN PLAINS IS NOW HIGHLIGHTING IA AND MN.
338 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE EAST AND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY.
140 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. /ISSUED 444 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015/ UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO WESTERN TEXAS. AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN TEXAS TONIGHT IT OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH.
150 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY AND A RIDGE FROM THE WRN PLAINS INTO WRN CANADA. AND 850 MB TEMPS IN THE - 8C TO -12C RANGE HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 30S EAST TO THE LOW 40S SOUTH AND WEST.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. /ISSUED 351 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015/ TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT AND INTO INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY. WITH 925 TEMPS AROUND -1 DEG C AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WENT WITH LOWS AT THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS CUTOFF LOW OVER MEXICO WITH RIDGE EXPECTING ACROSS THE SOUTHER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS TEMPS HAVE SLOWLY MODERATED INTO THE THE LOWER 50S THIS AFTERNOON RH VALUES HAVE DROPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE COLORADO STATE LINE IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES WILL MAKE ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U. INVERTED TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEY.
633 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST TONIGHT BRINGING THE SURFACE WINDS AROUND TO AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN AND A SUBTLE WARM FRONT GENERATES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURE RIGHT ALONG THE WEAK WARM FRONT. WITH READINGS LIKELY STAYING WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUD COVER. THE COOLER MOS VALUES STILL LOOK FINE IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE THICKEST. LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER 30S.
129 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT WITH COLDER AIR.
112 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA. THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
AS AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROLLS BY THROUGH THE LOWER PECOS VALLEY JUST TO OUR SOUTH. DRIER THAN EXPECTED AIR IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MAY HAVE BEEN THE BIGGEST CULPRIT. MODEL TRENDS AT LEAST HAVE CAUGHT ON TO THIS LOW-PERFORMANCE SYSTEM AND HAVE BACKED AWAY ON ADDITIONAL COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. OF COURSE WE CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON THOUGH MID LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS EAST. HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR WITH THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW PASSING BY SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION.
ALOFT THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER WEST TX WITH SOME LIFT PUSHING NE TO AR.
418 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 A DRY COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO THE REGION FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
HOWEVER WEDNESDAY A LEE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN OFF THE FRONT RANGE. SO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S APPEAR LIKELY ONCE AGAIN ACROSS OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW AR TAF SITES WHERE THE LOWEST CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED. /ISSUED 644 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015/ UPPER LOW IS STILL SPINNING OVER THE BIG BEND REGION OF TEXAS CURRENTLY. THE LOWS FOR TONIGHT WERE TWEAKED UPWARD AS WELL. ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW TAF SITES WHERE THE LOWEST CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED. A WEAKENING UPPER LOW IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION TONIGHT.
255 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015 COOLER AND DRIER ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. WEAK CAA WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE TODAY WITH HIGHS MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. WAA WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS OPENS INTO A WAVE AND MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION. MAINLY AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE HIGHEST COVERAGE/POPS ARE EXPECTED.
321 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015 THE SOUTHERLY UPPER LOW HAS BEEN KICKED OUT AND IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY H10 GEOSTROPHIC WIND VALUES INCREASING FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS 03Z-12Z, INDICATIVE OF A HEALTHY PGF IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL SUSTAIN A DEEP LAYERED DRY AND STABLE PROFILE AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING MIGRATES THROUGH.
DESPITE THIS HIGH BUILDING OVERHEAD UPSTREAM ENERGY IS ALLOWING FOR MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO STREAM SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE LOW 40S NEAR THE LAKE. MID-LVL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PIVOT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BUT ENOUGH RIDGING SHOULD DEFLECT THIS MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF THE CWFA. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S. THEN FRI AFTN/EVE THERMAL RIDGE LIFTS NORTHEAST. ENSEMBLES IN THE LATER PERIODS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEMONSTRATING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING REDEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND ALASKA. WITH TEMPS STILL ABLE TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 50S. THEN BY AFTN TEMPS WILL BE COOLING AS WINDS TURN NORTHERLY AND THERMAL TROUGH OF -3 TO -6 DEG C RETURNS. AND ONLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER MON.
628 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES TODAY.
636 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPR MIDWEST WILL MOVE E-SE TO THE LWR GRTLKS BY THU MORNING PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPILLING OVER THE UPR RIDGE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH CLOUDS MAKING SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS AS PAC NW SHRTWV/HIGH PLAINS RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EAST. EXPECT A COMBINATION OF HIGH CLOUDS AND EASTERLY WINDS/MIXING BEHIND DEPARTING RIDGE WILL LIMIT DIURNAL COOLING TONIGHT TO LESS THAN INDICATED BY LATEST MOS FCSTS.