Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
WEAK UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL SONORA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING FROM TUCSON SWD/SEWD TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THRU AT LEAST FRI AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS NEAR THE WEST COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE WEST OF 130W. AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE 16/06Z GFS AND 16/00Z CMC WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS SUN INTO MON.
1010 AM CST MON FEB 16 2015 COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND IS APPROACHING THE US 59 CORRIDOR AT MID MORNING.
Accumulations will remain very light, with most areas experiencing a dusting at best, with the most likely areas being the higher terrain over the western Big Country and Concho Valley (i. Any snow that develops will come to an end by mid/late morning with skies clearing from west to east as large scale subsidence overspreads the area in the wake of the departing trough. Johnson (Tuesday Night through Monday) A large upper trough will dominate the eastern half of the CONUS through the end of the week as an upper ridge builds over the southwestern CONUS.
338 PM EST MON FEB 16 2015 LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER ALABAMA WILL TRACK OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP/HRRR HAS TRACKED SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND FARTHER TO THE WEST WITH THEIR DEFORMATION ZONES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOULD OCCUR IN THE WV/MD RIDGES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WARMER.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS WITH SOME LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER KLAMATH VALLEY AND ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST. EAST OF THE CASCADES, HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S IN THE NORTH NEAR CHEMULT AND FORT ROCK TO THE LOW 60S IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NEAR ALTURAS.
WINDS BECOME SW AND INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA.
321 PM EST MON FEB 16 2015 INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF LABRADOR TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
This system exits the area by noon while another short wave trough.
945 AM PST MON FEB 16 2015 High pressure will dominate the weather through much of the week.
A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING CURRENTLY FROM NEAR RIO GRANDE CITY TO NEAR BAFFIN BAY WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 2 TO 4K FEET MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE ALONG WITH FULL SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO SPIKE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE VALLEY. BROWNSVILLE BETWEEN 5 AND 6 PM AND OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AROUND 7 PM.
342 PM EST MON FEB 16 2015 BUSY WEEK AHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, CURRENTLY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH, WILL MOVE EAST NORTH EAST AND EMERGE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY TOMORROW MORNING, AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER. THERE WILL BE A DECREASING TREND IN DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, WHICH INDICATES A DRIER AIRMASS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AT TAF SITES DUE TO A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE NEAR 130W. THE DRIER AIR AND A WEAKER INVERSION TONIGHT WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD FORMATION OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS.
A STRONG RIDGE WAS LOCATED FROM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST UP INTO THE YUKON. WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE FROM OUR AREA NORTHWEST INTO CANADA.
TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW 70S AND DEW POINTS ARE NEAR 60.
WITH ANOTHER RIPPLE QUICKLY FOLLOWING BEHIND IT AND THEN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER TROUGH ON THAT FEATURE/S HEELS. STILL SOME HINTS OF PERHAPS MODERATING THE FLOW TO A LESS SHARP TROUGH/MORE ZONAL CONFIGURATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM WEST. THERE WILL BE VARIOUS BITS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING THROUGH THE TROUGH.
400 PM CST MON FEB 16 2015 FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME LINGERING RAINFALL STILL OVER MUCH OF N LA AND EXTENDING WWRD ACROSS PARTS OF E TX SOUTH OF I-20. POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES HAVE HELD NEARLY STEADY ALL AFTERNOON FROM NEAR FREEZING OVER OUR FAR NORTH TO MOSTLY THE MID AND UPPER 30S FARTHER SOUTH. BRISK NW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT SFC MOVING INTO NRN/WRN TX.
321 PM CST MON FEB 16 2015 THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE COAST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
AND ANOTHER 10 DEGREES LOWER FURTHER W ACROSS SE TX/C LA WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW FREEZING BY DAYBREAK IN THIS AREA. ANY REMAINING MOISTURE ON ELEVATED ROADWAYS/BRIDGES MAY FREEZE IN A FEW SPOTS.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 24 35 21 32 / 80 10 20 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 20 30 16 25 / 90 10 20 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 20 30 16 25 / 90 10 20 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 21 27 14 21 / 100 10 20 40 NC.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ALSO CONTINUES OVER MOST AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LARGE LOW OVER HUDSON BAY SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. LOOKING AT HIGHS TODAY OF AROUND 10 ABOVE IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
1155 AM CST MON FEB 16 2015 COLD FRONT HAS NOW CLEARED ALL OF OUR REGION EXCEPT FOR THE VERY EXTREME SERN CORNER INCLUDING GRANT AND LA SALLE PARISHES. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES AS TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR THE FREEZING MARK WITH VERY LIGHT AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY. RAIN/OCCASIONAL FREEZING RAIN MIXING WITH SLEET SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS.
357 PM EST MON FEB 16 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA.
12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HUDSONS BAY WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARD SOUTHEAST CANADA. THIS SETS UP ALMOST A DUE NORTH FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL ALLOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW TO COME ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL GIVE US A CLASSIC SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN PROFILE FOR MOST OF THE THESE AREAS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN ALOFT AND CHANGE THE SLEET/FREEZING RAIN OVER TO SLEET AND SNOW. TEMPERATURES ALOFT /THANKS TO A BACKED SURFACE WIND/ SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING IN ALL BUT THE FAR ELEVATED PLACES ABOVE 1000-1500 FEET SUCH AS SIGNAL MOUNTAIN/MONTEAGLE MOUNTAIN. WITH LIGHT ICE/SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE. SOME ICING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THESE AREAS. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 37 24 35 21 / 100 80 10 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 32 20 30 16 / 100 90 10 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 30 20 30 16 / 100 90 10 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 29 21 27 14 / 100 100 10 20 NC.
/ISSUED 413 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2015/ A strong cold front continues to move south across the area and is just about to make it to the Rio Grande. Much colder air (more so than models have indicated) has filled in behind the front with most of the Permian Basin and SE NM below freezing. Some of the precip has switched over to light freezing rain and freezing drizzle across the central and northern Permian Basin.
AS WEAK FRONT AND THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. UP TO AN INCH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES AND LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE.
THE LOW WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH FOR WED KNOCKING TEMPS BACK DOWN ~5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE MORNING KBOI SOUNDING SHOWING COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN ALOFT OVER THE LAST 24H. THIS HAS ALREADY TRANSLATED TO THE SURFACE WITH COOLER MORNING LOW TEMPS AND WILL CONTINUE TO THIS AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST OFF THE COAST WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN AMPLITUDE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 30S AND BELOW FREEZING ON THE PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY.
ALSO OPTED FOR PATCHY FOG FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING FROM TUCSON SWD/SEWD TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE UPPER PATTERN THRU FRI WILL BE CHARACTERIZED WITH A RIDGE NEAR THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS.
WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK OFF TO THE WSW. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ROTATING THROUGH IL. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH AXIS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THINK THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT SOME POINT AS THE LOW LEVELS GRADUALLY SATURATE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH OF I-64. WITH DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES LOOKING MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE LACK OF ICE. ANY MINOR GLAZING WOULD LIKELY BE RESTRICTED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH THE WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING.
619 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015 AT H5 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH WEAK TROUGHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVERNIGHT IS A PRODUCT OF THE WARMER MAV NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AS THE MET HAS SHOWN A RECENT COLD BIAS. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. AT NORTH PLATTE THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A LOW IN THE LOWER 20S. BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR.
826 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015 A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE MO/AR AND KY/TN BORDERS AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST OHIO THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS. BEHIND THE COLD DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH LOWS MONDAY MORNING MAINLY IN THE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY KEEPING THINGS DRY AND SEASONABLE OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
RIDGE AXIS THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST TONIGHT. AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MIN TEMPS WITH PERHAPS THE BANANA BELT WARMTH ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR NOT AS APPARENT. WITH MAX AFTN TEMPS COMPARABLE TO TODAY DUE TO A COOLER START AND LESS WIND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE RAPID FORMATION OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z. AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS THE I-59 CORRIDOR BY 09Z.
BUT WINDS ARE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA WHICH IS HELPING TO RELAX THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT TONIGHT WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING. THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS THEY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE FA AS CAA WITH THIS FRONT HAS BEEN WEAK AT BEST. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE BY MID MORNING AS A LEE TROF DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST.
1054 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH MONDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST.
BUT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LATER TONIGHT AS MODEL TIME HEIGHTS/FCST SOUNDINGS AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST FOG FORMATION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. /ISSUED 403 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015/ VERY NICE SPRING DAY ON TAP AS TEMPS CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS.
STILL EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES EAST IN THE CWA TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
THESE INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATE MONDAY NIGHT. LARGE SCALE PATTERN AT 500 MB AT 12Z FEATURED A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A FAIRLY WEAK TROUGH FROM MINNESOTA DOWN INTO TEXAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS STATES INTO THE PLAINS.
WARMER AIR WILL RETURN TOMORROW WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN APPROACHING RECORDS BUT LOOKS LIKE MOST PLACES WILL COME UP A FEW DEGREES SHORT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.
THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THE HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE TOPPING THE RIDGE AND MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET AND TURN WEST. BUT THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL REVERSE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL KANSAS AS A COOLER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS STATES AND A COLD FRONT BACKS INTO THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RESIDE IN THE WEST WHERE DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S.
623 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015 LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LINGERED ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING VERY LIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE NORTHEAST.
THUS FAR, IT'S BEEN WINDY MAINLY AT THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE SISKIYOUS, WITH GUSTS AT SQUAW PEAK IN THE 80S AND IN THE 40S AT THE MOUNT ASHLAND LODGE.
Southeast winds will keep cooler low to middle 30s temperatures in place across the county warning area.
1042 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY.
INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS BEGINNING TO ADVECT A NOTICEABLY COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE EXTENDED SOUTHWEST INTO TX. WHILE THE COLD FRONT CURVED BACK W AND NW ACROSS CENTRAL MO INTO NEB AND SW SD. THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE ADVANCED TO ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM INDEPENDENCE THROUGH MUSCATINE TO GALESBURG. A DEEP LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION FLOW WILL ADVECT AN AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 20S AND EVEN A FEW TEENS OVER WI INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT UNDER THE INCREASING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AT THE SURFACE.
902 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION IN ITS WAKE.
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WITH NW FLOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS CONTINUING ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AND IF THIS OCCURS MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY END UP BEING COOLER THAN FORECAST OVER THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. LINGERING SHALLOW LAYER OF COLDER TEMPS OVER NW SD MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. SREF SUGGESTS BULK OF FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL EXIT N/E OF THE CWA BORDER THOUGH IT MAY CREEP INTO PERKINS/ZIEBACH COUNTIES.
640 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2015 WHICH WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AND PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AND AS USUAL THE NAM IS AT THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE.
AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER TROUGH WEST OF THE NORTHERN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BEING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
THE LOW WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES BY. AT THIS TIME THE DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK OFFSHORE WILL COME INTO PLAY AS THE EASTERN ANCHOR LOW ACTS TO PUMP UP A LONG WAVE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST.
952 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2015 ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 216 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015/ A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO QUIETLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE BEING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH.
640 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL PUSH ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND INTO NORTHERN INYO AND MUCH OF ESMERALDA COUNTY TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY ON THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WEAK AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THEN LOWS MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER MONDAY NIGHT.
At 500mb, a weak trough will sharpen overnight as it quickly moves southeast over the Commonwealth. Low pressure will also move across southern Indiana early this evening, dragging a cold front south of the Ohio River shortly after midnight. Under light winds, lows will fall to the lower 20s.
WITH PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MIXED IN AT TIMES THIS EVENING. THERMAL PROFILES IN THE BL ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AND SHOULD WEAKEN TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST. AS THE DRY AIR MOVES IN WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. AN EMBEDDED S/W WILL RIDE EWD ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE DAY AND ACT TO TRIGGER A FEW FLURRIES OVER NE MN. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA.
A cold front moved through the area this morning, and winds were from the north at 10 to 20 mph. The lows will mainly be in the 40s with a few upper 30s possible.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY ON THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WEAK AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THEN LOWS MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER MONDAY NIGHT.
Temperatures will remain well above normal in the mid to upper 70s and lower 80s through the early part of the week as a week upper ridge moves over the area.
NW flow aloft will dominate as the region sits on the periphery of upper-level trough after trough that rotates down from Canada, through the Great Lakes region, and the Northeast. Behind the weak front that came through today, temperatures tonight and tomorrow will be cooler than what was observed this weekend.
AND RAP/NAM/HRRR MODEL FORECASTS ALL BACK THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOGGY CONDITIONS TO THE WEST TO ABOUT ORD-KEARNEY-SMITH CENTER AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER TROUGH WEST OF THE NORTHERN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BEING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS DRAPING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF IT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH BETWEEN 12-15Z MONDAY BUT THE UPPER TROUGH LAGS AND LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH BETWEEN 18-00Z.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST OHIO THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS. BEHIND THE COLD DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH LOWS MONDAY MORNING MAINLY IN THE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY KEEPING THINGS DRY AND SEASONABLE OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
BUT SLIDING THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON TUE. WILL TREND POPS HIGHER IN THE NORTH WITH THIS HIGH CONSENSUS. AND POSSIBLY FARTHER SOUTH IF THE FREEZING PCPN IS REALIZED AND RESULTS IN IMPACTS TO TRAVEL. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT POST THE LOW FOR WED SHOULD RAMP WINDS UP. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM FROM TUE. SHOT OF COLD CANADIAN AIR ACCOMPANIES THE HIGH. THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO STICK AROUND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
710 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2015 SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH ALONG A STALLED FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
810 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION FOR THE COUPLE OF DAYS RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WILL BE COMMON BEFORE A SLIGHT COOLING TREND BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AND GIVE WAY TO DRY WESTERLY FLOW AS A SERIES OF PACIFIC DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
448 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015 COLD FRONT WAS NEAR A HRO.
SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWING MAJORITY OF LIGHT SHWR ACTIVITY SHOULD FORM E OF I-65 COORIDOR AND MAINLY DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS WHEN BEST MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS MOVE ACROSS THIS PORTION OF MID STATE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM 06Z-12Z WITH SSW WINDS BECMG NNW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GUSTY AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WE'LL REALLY BEGIN TO FEEL THE COOLER AIR MASS MONDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND 30 DEGREES.
EVEN AS LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR WITH A DEEP DRY LAYER UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE.
553 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2015 Cold front continues to sag slowly southward through central Illinois this afternoon, with 20z/2pm analysis placing it just south of the I-72 corridor. End result will be a cool/overcast night with low temperatures ranging from the lower 20s far north around Galesburg to the lower 30s south of I-70.
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 50 57 33 50 / 60 30 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 49 55 32 46 / 60 40 10 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 49 54 31 46 / 60 40 10 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 46 54 29 44 / 60 60 20 0.
805 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2015 NEAR RECORD WARMTH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE REGION.
645 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2015 WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
ALTHOUGH PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE COAST TONIGHT. BUT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH AND INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS BY 10Z-11Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN DURING THE DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION.
BEFORE CIGS LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS NEAR MIDNIGHT AS -RA MOVES IN AHEAD/ALONG OF A COLD FRONT.
547 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS TONIGHT.