Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
249 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2017 Latest water vapor imagery shows a deep closed low approaching the Oregon coast.
We opted to remove low order PoPs with the absence of trof and shallowness of mstr Sat AM.
Temperatures are expected to be a little bit warmer than yesterday but still cool with highs in the 30s and 40s across most of the area. The lower clouds in southern portions of the fa will continue to move out of the area this morning and early afternoon with high clouds moving in from the west. /issued 418 AM CST Fri Feb 3 2017/ Cool high pressure, centered over the central Plains, will move east, bringing southerly winds back to Oklahoma and north Texas by Saturday morning. This will, in turn, bring warmer weather into the region.
The only area getting a peak of sunshine is across far western Val Verde county where the western edge of the low clouds has temporarily thinned.
1259 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2017 High pressure will slowly build into the region through the end of the week.
Northwest winds in advance of the ridge should help keep high temperatures a little below normal, with readings around 30 degrees. High pressure dominating the center of the country this morning and a deep upper low off the Pacific coast will be the steering force for the weather through the forecast. Temperatures warmer for Saturday with southerly winds ahead of the front.
Saturday night, a low pressure system passes to the north with light snow into southern Lower Michigan.
354 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2017 Cold high pressure will build into the forecast area from the northwest tonight and dominate Saturday.
/issued 850 AM EST Fri Feb 3 2017/ One short wave trough approaching from the Gulf while another exits NE FL will have little impact. A cold front across far north FL with weak high pressure to the south will slowly drift south. The high is rather relaxed and will allow winds to shift to westerly in an afternoon sea breeze. Relaxed high pressure continuing across the waters today will allow a sea breeze to shift winds onshore in the afternoon. A cold front eases into then exits the area overnight as high pressure builds in behind it.
1202 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2017 Very little change in the forecast through Saturday morning as high pressure that was centered across Nebraska early this morning, moves southeast and keeps the Upper Midwest dry. Winds will gradually shift to the southwest, south and southeast as the center of the high moves over the Ohio Valley.
1247 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2017 A cold front will push just south of the area this afternoon as high pressure ridges in from the north. Much cooler temperatures will follow tonight through Saturday.
300 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2017 Currently - A weak ridge stretches across the Florida peninsula, while a subtle inverted trough is working its way west southwestward across South Florida and the Keys. Ample dry air remains in place aloft as a shallow upper level trough works its way east across the broader area. Forecast - The subtle lower level trough will wash out tonight and Saturday as the ridge to our north is reinforced by a larger high expanding into the eastern United States. Through the remainder of the weekend, the reinforced high to our north will be split in two by a growing inverted trough on the lee side of the Florida Peninsula and a mid latitude trough riding eastwards across the northeastern United States.
345 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2017 High pressure will build east across the area through the day on Saturday resulting in dry conditions and continued below normal temperatures.
325 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2017 High pressure centered over the Mid Mississippi Valley will move across the Upper Ohio Valley tomorrow and move off the Mid Atlantic Coast Saturday night.
212 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2017 A cold front will push just south of the area this afternoon as high pressure ridges in from the north. Much cooler temperatures will follow tonight through Saturday.
448 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2017 Two centers of high pressure encompass the region, one centered in the Atlantic north of the Bahamas and the other in the northeastern Gulf. There is also an elongated cold front across the northern Gulf that is entering the Florida panhandle and then extends northeastward into the the Atlantic off the Carolinas coast. The cold front is forecast to slowly move to the southeast tonight into Saturday while becoming diffuse.
The front is stretches eastward across the gulf, but the progress is decreasing and beginning to buckle as the coastal trough begins to wrap up. The trough will induce weak isentropic lifting areawide starting alter this evening as it strengthens. The trough will drift westward inland tomorrow morning, shifting the better chances for light rain and drizzle to the inland counties, with drier and warmer conditions closer to the coast. With midlevel ridging building overhead from the east, the coastal trough will dissipate Saturday afternoon, with southeast flow returning to the region.
High pressure building into the northern plains will move east across Indiana late tonight.
Axis of high pressure propagates across the region with return flow setting up overnight, and westerly winds become southerly.
High pressure will move across the Central Plains today on it's way to a position over central Kentucky late tonight. Tonight with the high moving into position over us and with mainly clear skies (passing high cirrus could provide some brief cloud cover), we should have good enough conditions for quick drops in temperatures. Highs will be warmer than today, but likely still a little below normal.
1104 AM EST Fri Feb 3 2017 High pressure with quiet and cold conditions into the weekend.
Cloud cover will begin to rebuild over the area this evening as a stream of moisture advects over the periphery of a mid-level ridge centered near the Four Corners Region.
350 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2017 Broad high pressure has settled into the central US this afternoon and looks to migrate to the east coast by tmrw aftn. Temps have ranged from the teens over the upper plain states to the lower 70s along the south Texas coast.
The low will likely occur during the evening with steady or slowly rising temps into the early morning hours.
The pressure gradient between the exiting high and low pressure over western MT will remain through at least 09Z Saturday. Expect the strongest winds across the higher elevations. Expect temperatures to top out in the mid 20s northwest, and in the upper 30s far south as a nose of warmer air slides in ahead of the cold front. Still, most locations will reach the low 30s before cooler northwest winds return to nearly the entire forecast area by 21z.
Canadian high pressure that is currently in control of our weather will begin to slide eastward tonight. With a well mixed boundary layer, temperatures may be a degree or two warmer than currently forecast.
A warm front will push northward from the coast Saturday night and isentropic lift will produce some showers across north Alabama after midnight Saturday night.
The sucker hole allowed the Ark-La-Tex area to warm-up and will also help to keep overnight temperatures from falling to freezing. Saturday, Cloudy conditions with a light east to southwest winds, temperatures will rebound 15 to 20 degrees with daytime highs in the low 50s to upper 40s.
158 PM MST Fri Feb 3 2017 Upper ridging is building across the CWA as the main axis slides across the northern Rockies. Cooler air will slide in behind a weak cold front through the day.
Looking at area observations, windchills out there are at -20F or slightly warmer and should continue warming as the morning and afternoon progresses. All the trees and power lines around the city are covered in thick frost and some ice from previous freezing drizzle. On a recent update to the High Wind Warning, did add potential for power outages around Cheyenne tonight into Saturday morning before temperatures rise high enough to melt the ice/frost off the trees/power lines. Went ahead and upgraded the High Wind Watch across the wind prone areas. Appears the Sierra Madre Range will see the highest snowfall amounts of 4-6 inches.
The higher amounts closer to 4 inches will be in the Panhandle. Showers will continue over the eastern half of the area into Saturday morning as the upper low offshore tracks through. Temperatures aloft will warm ahead of the low with a wintry mix possible over the Upper Columbia Basin and into the Palouse. There will be a freezing rain threat, but will have to take a closer look to see how significant this threat will be as there are model differences with how far north to bring the warmer air. Warmer air aloft is expected result in snow transitioning over to rain at KLWS for the evening with a wintry mix at KPUW. KPUW may see a small chance for freezing rain during this transition period between 01-06Z.
A split trough sitting off the Pac-NW and Canada coasts will be sending moisture into and over the Northern Rockies tonight and this weekend.
224 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2017 High pressure builds eastward into the Northeast Saturday with colder temperatures expected.
Tonight, the low- level jet in the isentropic layers mentioned above increases to near 30 knots bringing in more moisture as PWATs are expected to rise closer to 1. The biggest challenge this forecast cycle is to determine where a coastal trough develops and then how far inland it migrates on Saturday. Still think that the 12km NAM has a decent handle on the shallow nature of this airmass so areas farther inland will more than likely end up 10 to possible 15 degrees cooler than average. Trough may move far enough inland by late evening that eventually it loses support and fizzles. This will also bring in a much moister airmass with dewpoints climbing back into the low to mid-60s.
Upper level ridge axis seen on water vapor imagery laying across western Wyoming this afternoon. Upper low seen just off the Oregon coast moving eastward. Upper ridge axis passes late afternoon and westerly winds really begin ramping up once this happens. Stratus should erode quickly after ridge axis passes as lower level winds become downsloping off the Laramie range. So timing on the high wind onset looking good for the wind prone areas.
/issued 333 AM CST Fri Feb 3 2017/ A cold front continues to move through the coastal waters this early morning. High pressure over the Northern Plains is building in behind the front, providing a northerly flow and much cooler conditions. Rua A rather chilly day is in store for the forecast area, as high pressure will continue to build down from the plains, with northerly flow and cold air advection. High pressure will then move quickly off to the east on Saturday.
An upper level trough in northwest flow aloft is just beginning to exit western Nebraska early this morning. Weak upper level ridging will occur today as an upper level trough moves onto the western U. Highs will reach into the upper 20s north to the lower 30s south as skies remain or become partly cloudy. This will bring warmer temperatures aloft into the region, with 850 mb temperatures from 4c-8c across western Nebraska.
High pressure will move across the area tonight allowing for another chilly night, followed by southerly winds developing Saturday and the start of a gradual warming trend over the weekend.
1205 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2017 A ridge of high pressure will translate south and east over the Middle Mississippi Valley area today.
With the front through the region, modest northeast winds are beginning to develop the low clouds and very light rain just to the north. Less than ideal aviation conditions are occurring right now in the wake of the recent passage of a cold front. /issued 349 AM CST Fri Feb 3 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): A cold front has passed through the entire inland portion of the BRO CWFA and most of the adjacent coastal waters per the most recent surface analysis and the current surface observations. As the inverted trough moves onshore and pushes west through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley on Saturday, the chance of scattered patches of rain will persist. The passage of the aforementioned cold front will hold daytime high and overnight low temperatures at near normal levels for the period.
Saturday night, a low pressure system passes to the north with precipitation mainly remaining north of the region as well.
The 12Z KFGZ sounding showed a cooler profile (1 or 2 degrees C) through 700 mb vs yesterday morning. Expect variable mid and high level cloud cover today as a weakening short wave trough moves through the Great Basin.
/Tonight through Saturday/ A high pressure area currently over eastern Nebraska will slide quickly across Iowa and Missouri through this evening. Of more significant note is that the south, then southwest surface winds will pump milder air into the forecast area, with highs reaching the low to mid 40s across about the southwest half of the area.
/issued 342 AM CST Fri Feb 3 2017/ An upper ridge axis extends up across the Intermountain West this morning with a nearly flat ridge extending eastward across the rest of the country. A couple upper troughs move ashore the West Coast over the next few days but have little impact on the region as they move east. Another trough will move down out of Canada and dig across the Eastern U. and will send a cold front southward. Should be similar to that again today as latest guidance looking cooler than previous runs. Warmer temperatures return Saturday with the return of a south wind.
310 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2017 High pressure continues to build into the Mid-South this afternoon. Skies have cleared, but cold northerly winds have kept temperatures in the lower to mid 40s. The high will shift east on Saturday. Winds should turn around to the south by the afternoon hours allowing temperatures to rebound into the mid 40s to the lower 50s.
1046 AM CST Fri Feb 3 2017 Lingering clouds are quickly breaking up across the Mid-South as high pressure continues to build into the area. Highs will be in the lower to mid 40s. but North wind around 10 mph will advect at least slightly cooler air into the region. Skies should clear today as high pressure shifts over the Mississippi River Valley. Highs today will be mainly in the low to middle 40s with lows tonight in the low to middle 20s. A warmer.
330 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2017 Weak cold advection continues across north Texas on light northeastly winds this afternoon thanks to high pressure over the Central Plains. Skies have generally cleared north of I-20 but this is likely to be as far south as the clearing skies get as winds become easterly and then southeasterly overnight as high pressure begins to move into the Ohio River Valley.
Tonight, snow persists along the divide, with perhaps an inch or two of accumulation over the higher peaks. Over the ern mountains and plains, lee trough deepens with a switch to wly downslope winds, which should end the threat of any stratus and keep mins milder than the past few nights.
Upper trough and cold front are tracking through northern Idaho and NE Oregon this morning. Looking less likely for measurable precip in the lower valleys, especially areas from Boise to Twin Falls. This afternoon snow with a weakening cold front will move south causing areas of MVFR and local IFR conditions in Harney, Malheur, and Baker Counties and the central Idaho mountains.
300 PM EST Fri Dec 30 2016 High pressure will build across our region through Saturday. The geopotential height gradient will weaken the back side of the upper trough that crossed the region this morning, with 150-200m height rises and strong subsidence tonight. High pressure over the NC/SC border saturday morning will quickly shift east offshore, while a closed upper low ejects out of the Southwest US and shears across the central US.
1138 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2016 The high pressure ridge axis is moving over the the region this morning and the winds have lightened up considerably as a result. Ridge of high pressure currently extending from Manitoba southward to Texas will shift into the Midwest today. Gusty southwesterly winds will develop ahead of the front, which will keep low temperatures on the mild side in the lower to middle 30s. A clipper system evident on latest water vapor imagery over southern Alberta/Saskatchewan will track into northern Michigan, pulling a weak cold front into Illinois by Saturday afternoon.
331 PM EST Fri Dec 30 2016 Weak high pressure will build in very briefly tonight and will be followed by another quick-moving and rather dry cold front as a Clipper moves by to the north on Saturday.
A weak disturbance over the Northern Plains will send a cold front south across the Plains tonight. This will usher in cooler air by morning with overnight lows falling into the 20s. Temperatures will be about 30 degrees cooler than Friday, with 30s across the region.
1036 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2016 The high pressure ridge axis is moving over the the region this morning and the winds have lightened up considerably as a result. Ridge of high pressure currently extending from Manitoba southward to Texas will shift into the Midwest today. Gusty southwesterly winds will develop ahead of the front, which will keep low temperatures on the mild side in the lower to middle 30s. A clipper system evident on latest water vapor imagery over southern Alberta/Saskatchewan will track into northern Michigan, pulling a weak cold front into Illinois by Saturday afternoon.
1143 AM EST Fri Dec 30 2016 Low pressure will move northward into eastern Canada today. High pressure will quickly build over the region by early Saturday, followed by a weak area of low pressure passing by Saturday night.
Southerly winds will gradually become southwesterly overnight in the wake of a weak low level trough.
As previous shifts have mentioned, this system remains quite mild with snow levels dropping from 7000 ft to only around 5500 ft, keeping a chance for some mixed precipitation throughout the event for some of the lower elevations. Overnight lows down south will be several degrees warmer than last night as a result of increased cloud cover.
Low pressure will move across northern WI overnight. Winds will pick up again tonight and become gusty, especially in eastern WI, ahead of the accompanying cold front. The pressure gradient will weaken during Saturday evening as high pressure approaches.
Dry weather is expected tonight as central Indiana will be in between high pressure and a frontal system over lake Superior and the central Plains. An associated cold front will stall over Kentucky and as another system develops over rockies and lifts northeast over the great lakes.
After the main snow band exits to the east this evening, light wraparound snow will be possible behind the low as it pulls away but shouldn't amount to much. A little wedge of clearing along a Jamestown to Valley City to Fargo line is progged to fill back in this evening, and along with higher winds, should keep temperatures from dropping off much further than the low to mid teens across the south. Surface ridging extending from high pressure across the central Plains will quickly pass through the area early Saturday before a weak wave clips the far northeast allowing low snow chances to return.
Continued WAA through Saturday will lead to a relatively mild day with mid to upper 40s across the lowlands and 30s along the higher ridges of the mountains. The 00Z model guidance is a bit slower with bringing through the warm front and now is indicating that colder air will likely remain in place in the mountains. However, temperatures across the Lowlands will be plenty warm enough for precip to fall as plain rain.
High pressure is expected to build into the area through tonight. Short wave trough currently dropping southeast through the Canadian Rockies is expected to move across the Great Lakes on Saturday and Saturday night. This does not look like a significant system due to the shearing nature of the upper trough and the weakening of the associated frontal system. Otherwise, model data suggest heights will rise quite a bit over the weekend as upper ridging builds over the southeast parts of the country, while long wave troughing develops over the west.
Even though Livingston and Nye have not yet reached criteria, given that the gradient is not weakening, will continue the High Wind Warning. A cold front still looks on track to move through this morning.
Continued WAA through Saturday will lead to a relatively mild day with mid to upper 40s across the lowlands and 30s along the higher ridges of the mountains.
Late tonight into Saturday morning a cold front will sag south as an upper level disturbance tracks east across the region.
Another cold front tomorrow will bring cold air advection into the Panhandles and allow temps to drop back down to the 40s.
225 PM EST Fri Dec 30 2016 Strong low pressure across eastern Canada will continue to move away today. High pressure well to the west will build in tonight and then move out to sea Saturday evening.
249 PM CST Fri Dec 30 2016 Dry and sunny conditions will hang around for the remainder of the afternoon as the upper ridge slides east. A series of upper troughs as well as broad southwesterly flow aloft will bring in chances for precip starting Saturday and continuing for most of the forecast period through next Saturday. Overnight tonight and into the early part of tomorrow, an upper trough will move east through the Midwest, and allow warm moist air to stream over the region.
A relatively minor cold front will move through Oklahoma and north Texas overnight into Saturday, causing only minor changes in temperature, but will shift winds to northerly and will provide higher relative humidities.
1024 AM MST Fri Dec 30 2016 With strong winds over 60 mph occurring near Arlington, we have decided to include the Arlington and Elk Mountain areas in the high wind warning through 2 pm this afternoon. Our local work height product showing the 850 mb and 700 mb gradients remaining about the same through the early afternoon, so will leave the high wind warning intact as winds should remain near criteria. Relatively mild day on tap with west northwest flow aloft in the warm sector ahead of the next approaching cold front. Cooler temperatures behind the passing cold front with 700 mb temperatures near -4 Celsius yielding high temperatures in the upper 20s to near 40 degrees, along with less wind as the low and mid level gradients weaken considerably.
Increased southwesterly flow at the surface will allow temperatures to rise into the lower 50s across much of the area today. These winds and warmer temperatures will also cause some fire concerns (see below). A weak cold front will track across the region tonight but will be moisture starved, and unlikely to have many clouds associated with it let alone any precipitation.
229 PM MST Fri Dec 30 2016 Winds will continue to gust over the higher elevations for the next hours with the lee trough weakening and moving south with the onset of the cold frontal boundary. Satellite imagery shows the front over Wyoming with the low center spinning over southern California. As the upper trough drops south into the Northern mountains increasing subsidence and NW flow will help to clear out the stratus by the late morning and early afternoon. This will allow enough heating to reach normal temperatures with highs in the low to mid 40s on the plains. The trough will not pack enough moisture to bring precipitation to the plains with only a slight chance over higher elevations of the Park range.
Short lived upper ridge passing through today with eyes on the next short wave trough dropping out of Canadian Prairies. Some hints that ice source could drop out at times as wave passes so kept small risk of freezing drizzle in our far northern areas although confidence in any impact from that is minimal.
Water vapor imagery depicting upper trof axis now along the eastern seaboard as upstream 140kt+ upper jet has fast moving quasi-zonal northern stream flow bringing in 120m 500mb height rises into the region. LLJ increasing to 50kt+ after midnight will bring low level thermal ridge over the area in strong WAA. trailing cold front lagging behind just a bit as frontal wave in southern stream flow slows its eastward progression.