Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
227 AM MDT Thu Oct 10 2019 Upper trough/low will be over Montana and Wyoming today which with the help of snow cover will keep very cold temperatures for October in place. High pressure will be over the forecast area tonight with mostly clear skies and light winds which will allow for record cold temperatures in most areas. Meanwhile, the upper low moves into the Dakotas. High pressure and northerly flow aloft will keep Northeast Montana cold and dry for the most part this weekend.
331 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019 As of 730Z the cold front has pushed through the OK Panhandle and is pushing into the northern Texas Panhandle. MOS guidance is on average cooler than most deterministic models for overnight lows and seem to be decently in line with current trends.
207 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019 High pressure over the lower Appalachians will result in southeasterly winds across the Tennessee Valley. Afternoon temperatures are expected to rise above climatological norms into the low to mid 80s. Mild evening in store as overnight lows only drop down into the lower 60s.
Temperatures are starting out in the 50s and low 60s, several degrees warmer than this time yesterday.
Satellite imagery indicates strong subsidence (darkening on water vapor) over NorCal on the backside of the trough as it closes off over the northern Rockies.
439 AM MDT Thu Oct 10 2019 The upper low is now crossing the central Wyoming/Montana border, strong forcing along the southwest flow now pushing across the western CONUS. Upper low will continue to slide eastward into the CWA today with strong upper waves rotating upward through the area. The low pressure system will transition into northern Minnesota as it deepens. The pressure gradient across western South Dakota will steepen on Friday as the low pulls out.
628 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2019 High pressure will continue to be north and west with a low pressure system offshore through Friday leading to a mix of clouds and sun. Our next chance of showers comes from a cold front this weekend. A fairly stagnant pattern will continue as an Omega block with high pressure continues to be north and west of our region through Friday. Some areas of clouds and spotty showers will attempt to move westward into the Southern Catskills and NE PA on occasion from a low pressure system offshore as well.
646 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2019 A dry pressure ridge will dominate through Friday.
Areas that have maintained this cloud cover have remained warmer than previously expected, while northwest Montana is already seeing widespread temperatures in the teens and patchy fog. The mid level cloud cover is expected to erode through the morning, leading to generally sunny skies by afternoon as high pressure builds into the region. As high pressure strengthens over western Montana and central Idaho tonight, many locations (especially across southwest Montana and central Idaho) could actually see colder low temperatures than those experienced this morning.
1039 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2019 Currently - A pressure ridge aligned over the eastern United States is producing light north to northeast breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. A long lower to mid level trough is draped across the Florida Straits. However, convective activity is currently quite muted along the stretch of trough across our area. Temperatures are slowly climbing through the lower 80s with dew points near normal in the mid 70s. The combination of high pressure over the eastern United States and day time heating over South Florida will result in light north to northeast breezes becoming variable over portions of Keys waters.
Meanwhile, local radars are detecting a diminishing area of light rain over the Lower Keys, with scattered patches of light rain on the offshore waters beyond 20 nm south of the island chain. An unusually equatorward mid and upper level trough reaching the extreme Southeast Gulf of Mexico early this morning, will limp east and southeastward into the Straits of Florida and the Bahamas by late today and early tonight. Meanwhile, a massive, continental area of high pressure located over the entire Eastern United States, southward into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico and the northern half of the Florida Peninsula, will build southward later today into early this weekend.
A strong cold front will enter northeast OK later this morning and sweep through the area this afternoon.
Winner has changed over to snow from freezing rain, but expect some freezing precipitation in the far southern portions of Tripp and Todd counties for a few more hours before change over is complete. The upper low is now crossing the central Wyoming/Montana border, strong forcing along the southwest flow now pushing across the western CONUS. Upper low will continue to slide eastward into the CWA today with strong upper waves rotating upward through the area. The low pressure system will transition into northern Minnesota as it deepens. The pressure gradient across western South Dakota will steepen on Friday as the low pulls out.
High pressure over the lower Appalachians will result in southeasterly winds across the Tennessee Valley. Afternoon temperatures are expected to rise above climatological norms into the low to mid 80s. Mild evening in store as overnight lows only drop down into the lower 60s. Another warm day Friday with temperatures climbing back into the 80s before a cold front traverses the area late in the day Friday.
535 AM MDT Thu Oct 10 2019 GOES WV/IR imagery showed the potent upper trough axis from eastern MT through western WY and northern UT. Arctic cold front extended from northwest MN through eastern NE, western KS into south-central CO. There was some light freezing drizzle mixing with the snow as well.
Meanwhile, convection is expected to develop a strong cold front as it moves into eastern KS/northeast OK late this morning, then moves through our county warning area area from 21z/4pm today to around 12z/7am Friday. Discrete convection ahead of the front will be possible (in part left over from morning elevated convection that eventually become surfaced based in the afternoon), and then convection more tied to the actual cold front that will develop and expand with afternoon instability over our western counties.
strengthening southerly flow out ahead of a large mid-latitude cyclone forming in the Northern High Plains will bring above normal temperatures to the region. A cold front will slide through the Midsouth starting late morning in the west and exiting just before sunset in the east. However precipitation will lag behind the front as continued upper level energy rotates around the closed low.
643 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2019 The center of a large high pressure system was over northern Maine early this morning. A developing low was over the High Plains with a tight pressure gradient between these 2 systems. Moisture will continue to spread north from the Gulf as the low moves east.
416 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019 A warm and humid night will give way to drastic changes today as a cold front brings thunderstorms to portions of the area and a much colder airmass in behind it. Near or slightly below freezing temperatures are possible for portions of northwest Oklahoma, but held off on upgrading the Freeze Watch at this time as forecast temperatures are borderline and there is still some lingering uncertainty regarding degree of mixing as winds will stay elevated overnight.
240 AM PDT Thu Oct 10 2019 Gusty east winds over ridge tops and on Lake Tahoe will ease this afternoon as a high pressure ridge builds over California and Nevada. Cool conditions will continue today with widespread freezing temperatures expected again tonight. Gusty east winds over the higher elevations this morning, which are also producing choppy conditions on Lake Tahoe, will ease later today as the cold low pressure trough moves farther east into the central US, while a ridge of high pressure off the west coast begins to move inland.
336 AM MDT Thu Oct 10 2019 GOES WV/IR imagery showed the potent upper trough axis from eastern MT through western WY and northern UT. Arctic cold front extended from northwest MN through eastern NE, western KS into south-central CO. There was some light freezing drizzle mixing with the snow as well.
There is a chance the winter weather advisory will be expanded south and east a few counties to address accumulations of sleet and freezing rain. This decision will depend on the progress of subfreezing temperatures become clear later this morning.
525 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2019 Dry weather and warmer temperatures can be expected through Friday under high pressure.
424 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019 A strong cold front made its way across the local area overnight. likely well below freezing. albeit significant accumulation of freezing drizzle or light snowfall is not anticipated as any remaining light precipitation will be winding down.
345 AM MDT Thu Oct 10 2019 The upper low is now crossing the central Wyoming/Montana border, strong forcing along the southwest flow now pushing across the western CONUS. Upper low will continue to slide eastward into the CWA today with strong upper waves rotating upward through the area. The low pressure system will transition into northern Minnesota as it deepens. The pressure gradient across western South Dakota will steepen on Friday as the low pulls out.
632 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019 Showers/storms moving through the area today, transitioning to sharply colder temperatures with freezing temperatures possible tonight and Friday night. Meantime, the cold front has already arrived in northeast NE and will continue to move through the area today. Thus there could still be some drizzle left over, and where temps fall to near freezing, that could be freezing drizzle. More importantly, the colder air will result in freezing temps, and the existing freeze warning looks good, although we will try to allow for a later start along the eastern periphery of counties.
649 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019 A strong cold front made its way across the local area overnight. likely well below freezing. albeit significant accumulation of freezing drizzle or light snowfall is not anticipated as any remaining light precipitation will be winding down.
Temperatures are starting out in the 50s and low 60s, several degrees warmer than this time yesterday. High pressure remains in control of our weather for a short time longer, ahead of a cold front progged to sweep through the Mid State late Friday. Attention turns to the west on Friday as a cold front marches east, with rain and a couple storms reaching the TN River by midday.
A strong cold front, currently located across Colorado, Kansas and Nebraska, will surge south today and reach the Big Country by early evening, the Concho Valley/Heartland around midnight tonight, and the I-10 corridor around 4 am Friday. Before the front passes through, a strengthening 850 mb thermal ridge should allow highs today to reach the mid to upper 90s.
1026 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2019 Dry weather and warmer temperature can be expected through Friday under high pressure.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 60 84 57 / 0 0 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 80 58 84 58 / 0 0 0 20 Oak Ridge, TN 79 57 83 55 / 0 0 0 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 52 81 58 / 0 0 0 20.
422 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2019 Upper air model analysis this afternoon indicated deepening upper level low approaching the northern plains. Southerly winds ahead of the the approaching low pressure were transporting warm air and moisture in to the region. Temperatures will run above seasonal averages again on Friday but will fall back into the 40s during the late afternoon in the western counties as a cold front pushes into the UP.
High pressure will gradually build into the region through the weekend.
230 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2019 A dry pressure ridge will dominate through Friday.
1039 AM MDT Thu Oct 10 2019 GOES WV/IR imagery showed the potent upper trough axis from eastern MT through western WY and northern UT. Arctic cold front extended from northwest MN through eastern NE, western KS into south-central CO. There was some light freezing drizzle mixing with the snow as well.
244 PM MDT Thu Oct 10 2019 Upper level analysis has deep trof with closed low across the Northern Rockies and Plains, with ridging to the east and west. Upper low located across north central Wyoming with ample cloud cover and precipitation across the Dakotas. At the surface, cold high pressure has settled across central Montana with temperatures mainly in the 20s.
Deep upper low over the MT/WY border continues to slowly shift east at mid afternoon. In the meantime, unstable wrap around right under the upper low is producing some light snow over and near the Big Horns. The storm system departing the region today becomes powerful low pressure over the Great Lakes region on Friday.
An upper level trough over the northern Rockies continues to slowly move off to the east allowing a ridge of high pressure to build into the region from west. This will provide clear skies and a little warmer temperatures today and tonight.
Ahead of the low, a mix of rain, sleet and snow is occurring across eastern SD and west central MN. Could see a few hours of freezing drizzle this evening across the eastern forecast area as models have been consistently indicating another loss of ice in the snow growth region.
Winds should relax this evening ahead of the incoming cold front. Fine line per radar/cold front extends from Snyder to near Abilene to Jacksboro to Ardmore OK. Cold front races on southward tonight and should still be reaching the College Station area 5-7AM and Houston/Palacios 9-11AM and Galveston 11am-Noon. The high temperature will occur in the morning and afternoon temperatures will be falling.
Some of this lower level moisture moving inland from the Gulf was bringing clouds over eastern Mississippi and Alabama. Despite the scattered to broken clouds, high temperatures this afternoon should rise into the lower 80s. Mild evening in store as overnight lows only drop down into the lower 60s. Another warm day Friday with temperatures climbing back into the 80s before a cold front traverses the area late in the day Friday.
249 PM MDT Thu Oct 10 2019 Latest upper air analysis and satellite data show a closed low about to move onto the High Plains. Ahead of the closed low a corridor of frontogenesis continues to move east. As it does so the isentropic lift will weaken as the band moves further from the closed low. Weak WAA will occur during the day, which will allow temperatures to be warmer.
Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower 60s to 70s as a frontal boundary approaches the area. A cold front will approach the area by Friday morning.
257 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019 The cold front that has been forecast to move through the county warning area (CWA) over the last several days has finally crossed through the CWA. The vertical depth of the cold front is shallow, almost similar to depths seen with undular bores. Given the shallow depth of the airmass in the post-frontal environment, a nocturnal inversion is forecast to develop due to strong mixed-layer theta-E advection associated with the low-level jet above the post-frontal airmass.
105 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2019 Dry weather and warmer temperature can be expected through Friday under high pressure.
414 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2019 A slow moving storm system off the eastern seaboard will keep clouds and some light rain flirting with eastern Pennsylvania through Friday morning, while a ridge of high pressure covering the western half of the state maintains fair and dry weather with a light wind.
339 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019 Periods of showers and a few thunderstorms will continue across portions of central Illinois this evening, spreading eastward overnight into Friday as a strong cold front pushes into the area from the west. Areas of showers associated with warm advection aloft continue across west central IL this afternoon, while a cold front currently moving into western IA and MO approaches from the west. Enough elevated CAPE exists for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon, and especially this evening as a weak warm front surges northward across central IL ahead of the cold front. The cold front will bring a strong cooling, making for a cooling trend during the day Friday, reaching 40s by afternoon across the area, despite some areas starting the day in the 60s east of I-55.
scattered convection continued across parts of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas within an area warm advection ahead of the strong cold front currently moving into Osage county of Northeast Oklahoma. The ongoing convection was more elevated as the surface instability axis resided along and ahead of the cold front and west of the current convection. the cold front will continue to slide southeast across the CWA. Behind the cold front. have adjusted hourly pop/wx/temp/dewpoint grids to account for the fast movement of the cold front then originally forecast and the mentioned above.
Behind the cold front precip will linger with rapidly decreasing thunder potential through the night.
318 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019 Convergence along a quasi warm frontal boundary may trigger some weak convection across the Evansville Tri-State through late today. This will be in advance of a cold front (warm sector). It will turn noticeably cooler through the day Friday.
Upper level ridging is moving into the region today, helping to provide sunny skies and warming temperatures. Record lows are likely to occur again tonight, more so in the higher terrain than in the Snake River Plain, where a developing southeast wind will keep temps from really bottoming out tonight.
In the wake of showers and storms this morning, an instability axis has begun to nose north into eastern Kansas and western Missouri ahead of an approaching cold front. Backed surface winds ahead of the westward cold front may induce low-level rotation along the boundary, where LCL heights remain below 100 m. Temperatures Friday morning will dip into the low 30s across northwest Missouri and low 40s across central Missouri.
1213 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019 Showers/storms moving through the area today, transitioning to sharply colder temperatures with freezing temperatures possible tonight and Friday night. Meantime, the cold front has already arrived in northeast NE and will continue to move through the area today. Thus there could still be some drizzle left over, and where temps fall to near freezing, that could be freezing drizzle. More importantly, the colder air will result in freezing temps, and the existing freeze warning looks good, although we will try to allow for a later start along the eastern periphery of counties.
High pressure and northerly flow aloft will keep Northeast Montana cold and dry for the most part this weekend.
However, some high clouds may hang in at times tonight, as ridging remains in place ahead of a deep upper level low across the Upper Plains. This as ridging and high pressure remain in control ahead of a approaching upper level trough and cold front to the west. This system will continue to become vertically stacked across the Upper Midwest Friday night and a cold front will begin to swing slowly east.
Highs were adjusted upward to the lower to mid 40s southwest, while mid 30s north central. Lows from the upper teens to lower 20s west, to the lower to mid 20s east.
As we are enjoying our slightly nicer weekend, a cold front will be stalling over the southeast, well north of the forecast area. High pressure north of the region will keep east to northeast winds in place for the next few days.
1224 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019 A strong cold front made its way across the local area overnight. likely well below freezing. albeit significant accumulation of freezing drizzle or light snowfall is not anticipated as any remaining light precipitation will be winding down.
255 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2019 Mid-level ridging aloft will continue to keep the area dry today and tonight, with low level clouds that should quickly burn off now that afternoon mixing has initiated. High pressure east of the Appalachians should also continue to filter drier area into the forecast area with dewpoints dropping into the mid- to lower-50s into tonight. As the ridge axis moves east of the area tomorrow, skies should continue to remain mostly clear outside a few cumulus and some scattered cirrus with temps increasing into the 80s for all areas outside the higher elevations in the forecast area. Starting late tomorrow night, a cold front extending from an occluded low- pressure in the northern plains is expected to begin entering northwestern Georgia.
Temps are hovering around the freezing mark this afternoon with mostly clear skies and light, variable winds.
The overall pattern of upper and surface ridging will remain across the southern Appalachians/Tennessee valley keeping things dry. By the start of Friday night a significant cold front will be stretched from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast of Louisiana. The deep upper low will be located over the northern Plains.
410 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2019 Dry weather and warmer temperature can be expected through Friday under high pressure.
225 PM MDT Thu Oct 10 2019 Snow has pretty much ended over the CWA this afternoon as the upper trough/low continue to edge east over the high plains.
302 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019 A strong cold front continued to push into the region today, as a deep upper trough moved into the Nebraska panhandle. The best chance for a wintry mix of freezing drizzle, sleet, and snow will also primarily be along and west of this line. A Freeze Watch will remain in effect for the counties that are not expected to reach freezing Thursday night.
Strong front to bring rain, gusty winds and cooler (Tonight) We will be still tracking the progression of the cold front as it moves south across our area. Overnight lows will range from the low 40s across the Big Country, to the mid 40s across the Concho valley and upper 40s to low 50s across the Interstate 10 corridor.
Strong gusty winds are possible Friday with the passage of a cold front along with the chance for storms.
348 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2019 Currently - High pressure across the eastern United States and extending into the Gulf of Mexico is responsible for light north to northeast breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. An elongated lower to mid level trough is draped across the Florida Straits. Forecast - The previously mentioned high pressure system will gradually build southward over the next couple of days, becoming centered off the Carolina coast this weekend. The long trough nearby will remain to our southeast and gradually dissipate. The high off the Carolinas will be reinforced by another high riding eastward over the southern states.
1250 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2019 A dry pressure ridge will dominate through Friday.
253 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2019 A cold front will swing into the area later tonight through Friday evening with periods of rain and gusty winds. Temperatures will remain mild in advance of the cold front, before rapidly falling into the 30s and 40s Friday night. Dry, breezy, and much cooler conditions are then expected this weekend.
Otherwise, VFR conditions with both surface and upper ridging across the Tennessee valley. Surface ridging will keep winds light and generally less than 5kts.
223 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2019 A slow moving storm system off the eastern seaboard will keep clouds and some light rain flirting with eastern Pennsylvania through Friday morning, while a ridge of high pressure covering the western half of the state maintains fair and dry weather with a light wind.
An upper level ridge offshore today will move over Western Washington tonight and east of the area on Friday.
208 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019 Both the surface and upper ridge are now situated east of Middle Tennessee, with an increasing surface flow from the south. A strong cold front remains west of the Mississippi River, and as the front closes in on the mid state, our rain chances will increase, but not until tomorrow afternoon and especially Friday night.
200 PM PDT Thu Oct 10 2019 Building high pressure will bring continued very dry air to the region through Friday.