Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The highest chances will be along the coast in the Panhandle and Big Bend. Highs will warm to the lower 90s inland and mid 80s at the coast.
A dry cold front will move through the Western Magic Valley early this morning. The skies will remain mostly clear tonight and Tuesday as an upper ridge near the west coast builds into our area. Temperatures will be a little cooler today behind the cold front. A strong upper-level ridge will dominate through the period.
A few showers developed over Wallowa county late this afternoon in response to a weak upper level trough moving across the Pac nw. The trough resulted in breezy west winds today. Upper level ridge starts to build into the area Monday with mostly sunny skies.
Expect additional showers again on Memorial Day with slightly cooler high temperatures.
SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): Elongated upper level low across the Desert Southwest will put South Central TX under diffluent flow aloft while SE influx of moisture across the area. Lean towards the lower end of the guidance. Overnight low temperatures will remain on the warmer side remaining in the upper 70s. Tuesday will be a repeat of the weather pattern as elongated trough almost remains stationary over the Desert SW.
416 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 High pressure will be over the region today into Tuesday.
330 AM PDT MON MAY 30 2016 Very warm weather expected this week as high pressure strengthens. Clear skies across interior NorCal early this morning except for some high clouds spilling over the ridge along 130W. The main weather story for the region this week will be hot weather as the ridge over the eastern Pacific shifts over NorCal to kick off meteorological summer. Warmest temperatures will be around the century mark in the Central Valley as 850 mb temps climb into the lower to mid 20s C and subsidence increases.
626 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 High pressure will be over the region today into Tuesday.
509 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 A weak boundary will give scattered thunderstorms to the ridges this afternoon, otherwise dry and warm under high pressure into the middle of the week. Chance pops across the ridges for showers and thunderstorms were maintained for the afternoon. Clear with near seasonal temperatures tonight under high pressure.
303 AM PDT MON MAY 30 2016 High pressure will bring warm and dry weather to northern California through the week with possible convection by the weekend. Temperatures inland will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday reaching the 80s and 90s. Temperatures along the coast should be warmer as well but more seasonal. Hot interior temperatures will persist through the week as a strong ridge of high pressure moves over the western United States.
The storm activity will then shift to the west and northwest ahead of an approaching upper level short wave trough. Expect the lift to increase during the evening, mainly over the northwest and north central part of the area into the overnight hours before weakening as the short wave trough begins to fill. A ridge is influencing the CWA for the entire period, yet the ridge never fully engulfs the region. There is a fairly pronounced trough in the eastern CONUS that is preventing the ridge from moving east once it reaches the high plains. There is also a closed low over Texas that also helps with inhibiting the eastward movement of the ridge.
This will drag a trailing cold front into the CWA tonight into a moderately unstable airmass. In any event, strongest convection is expected along the cold front this evening and overnight. Region remains in weak, nearly zonal flow aloft with flow becoming more northwesterly by the weekend as ridging builds to our west.
455 AM MDT MON MAY 30 2016 08z surface analysis had low pressure over north central WY with cool front into southern SK and into southern ID. Water vapour showed upper trough over BC / AB moving east. Today and this evening, upper trough strengthens per 90kt jet streak on back side, which spins up an upper low moving into eastern MT this evening. Late tonight, subsidence and drying push most precipitation out of the CWA although leftover showers with some lightning are not out of the question as main bubble of vorticity wraps around upper low. An upper level ridge will build over the western CONUS behind the low, and the cool airmass will move out of the region.
A strong upper level ridge will build into the West Coast today and move across northern California Tuesday. This is inducing a surface thermal trough in northern CA, which is nosing into SW Oregon and leading to offshore flow. Coastal areas south of Cape Blanco will be warmest today with the axis of the thermal trough overhead. The thermal trough will push inland Tuesday and marine air will return to the immediate coast, but it will turn even warmer inland.
223 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 An upper level trough will push across the region tonight and Monday. A ridge of high pressure will build east into Pennsylvania for midweek. A slow moving cold front will likely push into the region from the Great Lakes by late in the week. Further to the west, a weak cold front is pushing into nw Pa. although isold to sct coverage shra/tsra still expected during the aftn/early evening with passage of weak cold front.
While max temperatures still warm into the low and mid 80s, dewpoints in the 50s (perhaps even some 40s across the northern portion of the forecast area) will allow humidity to ease and make for a more comfortable day. High pressure and clear skies tonight will bring the coolest temperatures we have seen in days, but still slightly above normal in the low 50s to low 60s in the Detroit heat island. Upper ridging will build into the area Tuesday into Tuesday night in response to a large upper low digging into the Northern Plains.
438 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 Cold front will finally push across the area today bringing additional showers for today and cooler temperatures for the next few days.
328 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 A warm front will cross the region today. A cold front will move across the area tonight and will be followed by another cold front during the day Tuesday.
High pressure across Indiana overnight will provide for a dry and pleasant Memorial Day. Showers and thunderstorms have exited the county warning area, and drier air will continue to filter in as high pressure strengthens. Expect continued clearing overnight and lows generally in the low 60s. Current temps across the area are generally in the low to upper 70s.
Northwest flow aloft Monday will become mostly zonal Tuesday and weak low level ridging will move into place across the eastern CONUS. Very warm conditions will continue with highs in the low 90s and lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.
342 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016 The CWA is currently under somewhat zonal upper level pattern with a ridge centered over Mexico and troughs on the west side of the Rockies.
616 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 A warm front will cross the region today. A cold front will move across the area tonight and will be followed by another cold front during the day Tuesday.
640 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 High pressure will build across the area today through Tuesday.
405 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016 A surface warm front extends from northeast Nebraska to northeast Missouri early this morning and is moving very slowly to tbe east. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have developed near and east of this warm front from the WAA aloft. The situation with the warm front will likely persist to some degree thru mid-morning, maintaining the threat for isolated showers and thunderstorms in parts of northeast MO and west-central IL. For much of today, should see decent sunshine for most areas with a weak southeast to south flow developing as the surface warm front moves thru. This feature will drive a cold front thru the region Wed/Wed night. Guidance suggests significant troughs dvlpng along the Coasts with a high amplitude ridge aligned along the Rockies over the wknd which puts the.
252 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016 Weak high pressure will move across the area today with mainly dry conditions.
528 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 A weak cold front will push across Pennsylvania this Memorial Day. A ridge of high pressure will build east into the region for midweek. A slow moving cold front will likely push into the region from the Great Lakes by late in the week. Focus will then shift toward weak cold front pushing into the region from Ohio. However, diurnal heating/pre-frontal destabilization should result in sct convection developing along cold front later today. Any lingering evening shra/tsra across eastern Pa should diminish by late tonight, as weak cold front slowly pushes thru. Ridging at sfc and aloft build into central Pa Tuesday, bringing fair and warm wx.
Hot temps continue along with scattered aftn/evening storms over inland areas as ridge axis remains across the forecast area. Max temps still reaching the lower to middle 90s inland with heat indices around 100 degrees and upper 80s along the coast.
A cold front will approach the region from the west Friday and then stall nearby this weekend. Wave of low pressure progged to track NE along this boundary Sun keeps the deep moisture in place while the boundary drifts back north as a warm front. Highs in the low-mid 80s. Frontal boundary moves south into the Carolinas Mon as upper level low spins across srn Canada. Secondary front / trof swings through Mon keeping low chc pops in through mon evening. Lows in the low-mid 60s. Kept Tue / Wed dry attm expecting weak high pressure to build into the area. Low pressure (post-TC Bonnie) remains off the southeast coast of NC and continues to push very slowly NNE. The low gradually pushes offshore late tonight ahead of an approaching cold front.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible over the higher terrain of central and SW MT Thursday afternoon.
415 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms through tonight. This would be in line with the area of strongest convergence in the lower levels and also the path of the supporting energy aloft. Still rather warm Friday as it will take all day for the cooler air to finally move over the area.
These gusts will not last long though as high pressure brings a weakening gradient by early evening. Expect light winds and clear skies thereafter as this high builds into the region. Cold front over western Michigan will continue to work across the state early today. Upper trough will lift out of the Northern Great Lakes today, leaving Southeast Michigan under westerly flow. Ridging at the surface will help keep dry and quiet weather over the area with light winds, although lake breezes will push inland Friday afternoon/early evening.
A 700mb transitory ridge along the western border this morning will translate into central ND this afternoon. Associated with this upper wave will be a weak surface cold front. Low level moisture advection ahead of the cold front will be most noticeable in south central ND where dewpoints are forecast to rise to between 55f and 60f this afternoon into tonight. Adequate 0-6m shear of 30kt to 40kt for most of southern ND with the highest shear residing along the ND/SD border tonight. This secondary surge seems to be tied with the 850mb equivalent potential temperature ridge axis which briefly scoots over far southern/south central ND tonight. The higher resolution NAM12 is trying to develop a mesoscale convective complex tonight with heavier rainfall totals of between 1 and 1.
This brings increased upper support to the Lower Mississippi River, and with that, a better chance of rain to western-most portions of the fa today into tonight. With no upper ridge to add subsidence to the temperature equation, moister parts of the fa will see increased cloud cover, so a bit cooler west is expected as compared to east.
239 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 High pressure will retreat to the east of the area today.
355 AM PDT THU JUN 2 2016 A significant warming trend will take place over the region into the weekend as high pressure builds over Central California. The central California interior is in the midst of a heat wave that will continue for at least a few more days as a strong ridge of high pressure aloft remains firmly entrenched over the state.
631 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms through tonight. This would be in line with the area of strongest convergence in the lower levels and also the path of the supporting energy aloft. Still rather warm Friday as it will take all day for the cooler air to finally move over the area.
453 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 A cold front will move across the area today. Temperatures are expected to be cooler today than the past few days with additional cloud cover in place. Went with high temperatures in the low to middle 80s.
359 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2016 An upper level low pressure area across west Texas will move into central Texas today taking with it the heaviest rainfall and flash flooding potential. The upper low is forecast to stall Friday across central Texas and then move south toward south Texas and northeast Mexico this weekend.
409 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2016 Broad, disorganized and weak high pressure extends from the High Plains through the Mid MO Valley. Streaks of cirrus associated with the northern periphery of a rather large upper trough over TX will prevent us from seeing crystal clear skies.
and slightly stronger low-level flow along the eastern periphery of the TX upper low will provide some enhanced lift as well. A northern stream upper low will shift into the Great Lakes region for the weekend.
Thursday will bring ridging aloft and mostly sunny skies to the area. 850 mb temps will warm through the period resulting in afternoon highs generally in the lower 80s Thursday afternoon. At the beginning of the period there is a defined ridge and trough pattern over the USA; with the ridge in the west. The GFS and Euro still differ on how they are handling the movement of the closed upper level low over California and Nevada, which will impact the chances for precipitation during the period.
A cold front will cross southeast Idaho this morningand bring strong west to southwest winds to the Upper and Lower Snake Plain. High pressure ridge builds in again on Friday, expect some cloud cover but mainly a nice day.
415 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 At upper levels, Kentucky sits in a split flow regime with a upper low in the northern stream lifting east-northeast across the Great Lakes region and a nearly stationary southern stream upper low over Texas. The northern stream upper low is expected to push into Quebec this afternoon, draping a cold frontal boundary somewhere along the northern Kentucky border. At the surface, the cold front will shift towards northeast Kentucky this afternoon providing a focus for potentially stronger storms. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday with afternoon highs in the lower 80s both today and Friday.
Ridging over the Atlantic has some influence over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
230 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2016 A weak cold front/stationary front was bisecting the CWA from southwest to northeast early this morning.
249 AM PDT THU JUN 2 2016 High pressure will produce summer conditions with afternoon highs warming to the low and mid 80s for the Sierra and 90s to around 100 across western Nevada by late week.
139 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 Warm front will move northeast across the area this evening. A cold front will follow closely behind. The cold front will move east of the area Thursday afternoon. High pressure will build in on Friday. Thursday will begin with the cold front across Central Ohio. High pressure builds in from the west Friday as low pressure drops across the Dakotas.
A stalled cold frontal boundary remains across southern MO early this morning. The cloud cover and precip will keep temperatures suppressed and have trended towards the cooler model solutions.
216 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 A ridge of high pressure over Pennsylvania will provide fair and warm weather this evening over most of the area. Increasing moisture will flow northward into Pennsylvania for Thursday and Friday ahead of a weakening cold front moving out of the Great Lakes.
In northern AR, a cold front will slowly sag south and develop isolated showers and thunderstorms over northern TAF sites. Winds will shift to the NW to N over northern AR with the cold front. Otherwise, the cold front over southern MO will slowly sag southeast tonight and into Thursday, and becoming the focus of convection.
Early morning water vapor satellite imagery is showing two separate upper/mid level troughs. One is embedded in the progressive flow across the northern CONUS, while the other trough is slowly moving east across Texas. In the low levels, the sub-tropical ridge axis will continue to extend from the Atlantic across northern Florida today and Friday, resulting in light southeasterly gradient flow over the forecast area, giving way to a sea breeze turning the winds onshore near the coast each afternoon. This will allow for scattered storm coverage across the entire forecast area, although the highest rain chances will remain over the southern half of the forecast area.
402 AM MDT THU JUN 2 2016 A blocky mid latitude weather pattern is setting up with high pressure over the western Atlantic complimenting a building ridge across the Intermountain West to end this week. High pressure amplifies over the desert southwest through the weekend bringing hot and dry conditions to the region.
356 AM MDT THU JUN 2 2016 The cutoff upper low over west central Texas moves slowly into the Gulf Coast region of Texas by Friday night. During this time, the upper ridge amplifies over the western U. , extending northward through the Intermountain region as a short wave trough rides over the ridge and deepens over the northern plains.
Weak high pressure ridge remains in control of local weather pattern, with its broad axis over the central peninsula. The formerly omnipresent mid-upper trough that had been lingering over and just offshore Florida for the past week and change has eased eastward to near and northeast of the northern Bahamas, with a weak mid/upper ridge building toward FL from the eastern GOMEX. A light sultry S to SE flow is keeping temps in most areas in the middle to upper 70s, with a few lower 70s in the normally cooler sheltered spots. Atlantic ridge axis across central Florida late week will gradually shift southward through the weekend as trough aloft drives a cold front into the southeast United States.
Split flow aloft was seen over the central plains per the 07Z water vapor imagery with an upper low north of MN and a second upper low drifting east across TX. Surface obs showed the high pressure system centered over the central plains as it propagates east and south. The deeper low level moisture is also expected to remain mainly to the south of the forecast area as the ridge passes to the east of KS. This is not expected to make a big impact to insolation and with forecast soundings showing the boundary layer mixing to 800MB, highs should be in the lower 80s for most areas.
The forecast area will remain wedged between ridging aloft over much of the Southeast United States and a deepening trough/cutoff upper low over the Southern Plains, through the period. Slightly better rain chances will exist Friday as the aforementioned trough/upper low slides a little further east and closer to the CWA. Then on Friday, highs will range from the low to upper 80s, and fall to around 70 Friday night.
345 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 Under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and a steady east to southeast wind, temperatures are holding in the lower 80s along the island chain. Surface wise, a modest western atlantic ridge is draped across the Florida peninsula and it extends well into the Gulf of Mexico.
A trough of low pressure will bring cooler onshore flow today with a chance of showers. A strong upper level ridge will expand into Western Washington Friday. The ridge will give sunny warm weather through the weekend.
The MCS should sustain itself through the morning hours as it moves eastward, in an increaingly divergent upper level pattern across South-Central Texas east of the approaching upper level low per current RAP analysis and forecast. We continue to stress the high potential for flash flooding and message Turn Around, Don't Drown. Behind the departing MCS, and after recovery, re-development of storms are possible this afternoon back through the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau, closer to the mid level trough axis. May be a brief lull in convective activity after sunset, with possible overnight re-development of isolated to scattered storms closer to the core of the mid and upper level low through central Texas and the Hill Country.
A weak upper level trough was located over Texas. Another upper level trough was located over the Pacific Northwest.
551 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 Aviation A cold front near Detroit will continue to push eastward away from the region today. Meanwhile, an area of high pressure centered over the upper plains will build into the Great Lakes Region. Another cold front will track through Michigan over the weekend.
1035 PM PDT WED JUN 1 2016 A cold front will usher in breezy conditions through much of Thursday.
154 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms through tonight. This appears to be in response to the ridge not breaking down as the majority of the upper level energy will remain to the southwest overnight. This would be in line with the area of strongest convergence in the lower levels and also the path of the supporting energy aloft. Still rather warm Friday as it will take all day for the cooler air to finally move over the area.
An upper level area of low pressure over northern Minnesota will continue exiting the region with winds diminishing through this evening. Thursday should be rather warm as weak upper level ridging slides across the region and southerly flow develops. The placement of the cold front on Friday is a little unclear at this time. Upper level northwest flow will dominate the start of the extended as an upper trough slowly exits the Great Lakes region.
They show a band of deep atmospheric moisture stretching from Texas northeastward across the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley, as well as over the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys.
653 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 A cold front will move across the area today. Temperatures are expected to be cooler today than the past few days with additional cloud cover in place. Went with high temperatures in the low to middle 80s.
311 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 Cold front over western Michigan will continue to work across the state early today. Upper trough will lift out of the Northern Great Lakes today, leaving Southeast Michigan under westerly flow. Ridging at the surface will help keep dry and quiet weather over the area with light winds, although lake breezes will push inland Friday afternoon/early evening.
A building ridge of high pressure over the western United States this weekend will cause temperatures to steadily warm.
A surface trof was just moving through the far northern third of the area with a WNW wind behind it. Ahead of this trof, a WSW wind was found. Plenty of low clouds covered the region with some isolated showers cruising through thanks to positive vorticity advection at the base of the upper low drifting through. As this system continues on its trek through northwest Ontario, surface ridging moves into the region. The deterministic models agree on bringing an upper level short wave trof over the region through the day, only the GFS/ECMWF generate any QPF over the northern third of the forecast area. As the warm/moist air pushes into the area, mid and upper level ridging remains over the region.