Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Short wave ridge axis will shift east putting fa into mid level sw flow aloft by morning. Surface boundary associated with upstream trough will reach the montana/Dakotas border by tomorrow evening.
901 PM CDT THU SEP 1 2016 High pressure will continue to slowly build into central and southeast Illinois overnight. High pressure will continue to build into the region tonight, with NNE winds throughout the overnight. Tomorrow will be more of the same, with high pressure ridge keeping the winds more northeasterly and mostly sunny with some cumulus across Central Illinois and max temps in the mid to upper 70s. High pressure centered over the Great Lakes is expected to bring some very pleasant weather conditions through the holiday weekend as remnants of Hermine slowly track up the southeast coast this weekend and eventually stalls out just off the East coast Tue.
A cold front will cross the Rockies around midnight and winds will along the slopes will strengthen towards morning. Central and Southwest Montana are underneath brisk, unsettled, southwest flow aloft ahead of a low pressure trof over the West Coast.
641 PM CDT THU SEP 1 2016 It will be dry with pleasant temperatures into Friday as an upper level ridge reaches across the plains and up into the Great Lakes.
/Issued 354 PM CDT THU SEP 1 2016/ Drier air is beginning to filter into the area from the north behind a cold front which is progressing across the area at this time.
Upper trough deepening over the Pacific Northwest this afternoon will continue to bring upper disturbances across Montana through this period. On Friday, some cooler air will seep into the western zones as the upper trough continues to drift east.
A weak front pushing into the region will bring off an on showers, snow to the highest peaks in the Cascades and perhaps a stray thunderstorm or two through Friday.
Significantly drier air filtering into the region behind front across northeast Oklahoma with dewpoints falling into the lower 60s.
High pressure will bring dry and pleasant weather to central Indiana through the upcoming holiday weekend.
This Evening Through Friday Night Upper level analysis has amplified flow across the area with ridging across the central CONUS and trof entering the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, high pressure is located across the Great Lakes region with low pressure over central Montana. Upper ridging remains across the Northern Plains with partly cloudy skies expected overnight. Upper ridge shifts east as western trof digs into the Pacific Northwest. While windy conditions continue on the South Dakota plains, behind the surface trof in WY, winds become gusty out of the southwest, and dewpoints decrease markedly.
1158 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2016 Generally expect VFR conditions throughout the forecast period as high pressure continue to slowly build into area and provide drying low levels. Upper trough axis swinging through the area is helping to kick off a few showers (and possibly some waterspouts over the Great Lakes/Lake St Clair) as it brings in a reinforcing shot of cold air and steepens lapse rates in the low-mid levels.
Diurnal cumulus should dissipate shortly after sunset with broad subsidence in place with Iowa between departing Mid MS Valley/Great Lakes long wave trough and plains upper level ridge. Should be another good radiational cooling night with around 10 degree spread possible between cooler areas and Des Moines heat island. Overall the pattern will change little with slowly progressive, high amplitude flow keeping a western CONUS trough and east coast ridge in place, which will be further slowed by Hermine.
Otherwise, expect a mostly cloudy and damp night with dewpoints remaining in the lower 70s. /ISSUED 350 PM CDT THU SEP 1 2016/ The cold front is difficult to discern as winds are northerly across most of the forecast area, but believe that it extends near a Sulphur Springs to Waxahachie to Coleman line. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s northwest to the lower 70s elsewhere. Most of the weekend forecast looks pretty nice as a weak upper level ridge develops over the Arklatex.
/issued 253 PM CDT THU SEP 1 2016/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): 500mb ridge across northern Mexico and Hurricane Hermine across northern Florida tonight will continue to provide northerly winds aloft across south Texas tonight. The weakness in the ridge across south TX Friday will allow isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop across portions of central and south TX Fri afternoon and this convection will move southward into portions of the CWA.
The large, broad ridge southern extent is currently located over northern Missouri, which has allowed for a very weak pressure gradient across the entire forecast area. One mitigating factor to fog formation is that the aforementioned weak pressure gradient could keep the winds up around 5 mph, which might keep the low levels mixed out adequately; however, should conditions go completely calm then fog formation becomes more likely during the sunrise period on Friday morning.
18Z surface data has high pressure running from the upper Great Lakes into the southern Plains. Quiet and cool conditions will be seen across the area tonight and Friday as high pressure remains over the Great Lakes.
09 (Issued 642 PM CDT THU SEP 1 2016) (Issued 244 PM CDT THU SEP 1 2016) With a hurricane and approaching cold front, it definitely looks like September on the surface analysis. Closer to home, there is a cold front draped roughly along I-40 in Tennessee; it is tough to pinpoint with surface obs, and best detected with the isolated convection on radar/satellite. The rest of the weekend will be dry but increasingly warm as mid- level ridging builds in the wake of the departing Hermine.
954 PM MDT THU SEP 1 2016 Upper ridge axis has shifted to the northeast, with southwest winds over forecast area. Lee trof remains over eastern MT-WY with winds still gusty from the SE over forecast area. Friday through Friday Night Upper ridge shifts east as western trof digs into the Pacific Northwest. While windy conditions continue on the South Dakota plains, behind the surface trof in WY, winds become gusty out of the southwest, and dewpoints decrease markedly.
1142 PM CDT THU SEP 1 2016 High pressure will continue to slowly build into central and southeast Illinois overnight. High pressure will continue to build into the region tonight, with NNE winds throughout the overnight. Tomorrow will be more of the same, with high pressure ridge keeping the winds more northeasterly and mostly sunny with some cumulus across Central Illinois and max temps in the mid to upper 70s. High pressure centered over the Great Lakes is expected to bring some very pleasant weather conditions through the holiday weekend as remnants of Hermine slowly track up the southeast coast this weekend and eventually stalls out just off the East coast Tue.
high pressure will build in behind the exiting frontal boundary and we will be transitioning into a quiet weather pattern with light winds and VFR conditions for Friday.
This will result in drier air, cooler than normal temperatures, and otherwise clear and pleasant weather. An upper level trough will settle into the western CONUS this weekend, with lee trough development across the Central Plains.
642 PM PDT Thu Sep 1 2016 Cooler weather will arrive for the Labor Day Weekend. The arrival of a cold front tonight will bring eastern Washington and north Idaho a good chance for rain showers.
702 PM EDT Thu Sep 1 2016 Dry high pressure will maintain seasonably cool weather through the weekend.
Lower levels are scouring out with still some moisture as the cold front is knocking on the back door now. /issued 408 PM CDT THU SEP 1 2016/ This afternoon an upper level rough of low pressure extended Southwest across Southwest Arkansas and into North Central Texas and was nudging a cold front into the Four State Region.
1140 PM CDT THU SEP 1 2016 Quiet, tranquil, beautiful weather continues through Friday with a high pressure ridge across the forecast area. The upper ridge does begin to shift east Friday night resulting in southwest flow developing aloft.
Mid/upper level ridge moves on top of the area though early tomorrow. Initial impressions are that the models are drying out the low levels too much today. Do not expect the stratus to hinder the warmup since do expect decent mixing as gradient increases due to lee trough development. Expect breezy to low end windy conditions as a strong lee trough should develop in the southwest flow aloft.
The upper level ridge axis was centered over the Dakotas. Again, high pressure and light wind should produce similar temperature to early this morning. Slightly warmer 850mb temperatures will allow mixing to the surface and highs tomorrow should be about 2 degrees warmer than today. This change evolves around the continued slower movement of the mean Upper Ridge moving eastward across then Northern Plains, and Upper Midwest.
High pressure over the Great Lakes builds in earnest tonight and will maintain control through the rest of the short term. Max temps on Friday could be a tick warmer than today, but a respectable NE gradient will keep a 10-15 mph breeze for much of the day.
Temperatures much warmer than past nights. Short wave ridge axis will shift east putting fa into mid level sw flow aloft by morning. Surface boundary associated with upstream trough will reach the montana/Dakotas border by tomorrow evening.
Afternoon surface analysis showing most sites coming in with north to northeast winds this afternoon, and this will continue to advect cooler and dryer air into the region through the period. That said the upper level trough axis will lag behind a bit, but is expected to swing into the area tonight into Friday. This as Tropical Storm Hermine tracks northeast into the gulf coast and eventually Carolina's by Friday afternoon, and the aforementioned trough will limit any of the affects from this system on eastern KY. Also helping at the surface will be a broad area of high pressure that will continue to build south and east.
1138 PM CDT THU SEP 1 2016 Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows upper level ridge over the southern Canadian Prairies into the the Northern Plains and upper level trough over the eastern Great Lakes Region. as surface/upper level ridge dominates the Upper Great Lakes Region.
/ISSUED 350 PM CDT THU SEP 1 2016/ The cold front is difficult to discern as winds are northerly across most of the forecast area, but believe that it extends near a Sulphur Springs to Waxahachie to Coleman line. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s northwest to the lower 70s elsewhere. Most of the weekend forecast looks pretty nice as a weak upper level ridge develops over the Arklatex.
(Issued 244 PM CDT THU SEP 1 2016) With a hurricane and approaching cold front, it definitely looks like September on the surface analysis. Closer to home, there is a cold front draped roughly along I-40 in Tennessee; it is tough to pinpoint with surface obs, and best detected with the isolated convection on radar/satellite. The rest of the weekend will be dry but increasingly warm as mid- level ridging builds in the wake of the departing Hermine.
High pressure to the east and lee low development to the west will allow for low level jet formation overnight with 850mb wind speeds increasing to around 40kts.
This wave is expected to pass through the forecast area tonight with moisture continuing to deepen out ahead of the main longwave trough that approaches the Great Basin by early Friday morning. Also added gusty winds to the evening convection as we still need to saturate the lower levels. This will also cool max temps on Friday and the cooler GFS numbers are preferred.
Clear skies and light NE winds will prevail tonight, and with cooler air associated with the building high pressure and longer September nights taking hold, when it moves over the rivers whose water temp is mainly in the upper 70s, it will also promote a better scenario for steam fog creation. Another repeat on Friday of what it did today, with diurnal cumulus clouds with the heating of the day, and what should be our coolest day of this stretch, thanks to a cooler start in the morning and even greater influence from the high pressure system to our northeast, with maxes in the mid to upper 70s. TES High pressure centered over the Great Lakes Friday night remains in control of the weather through the weekend.
1043 PM CDT THU SEP 1 2016 Under strong ridge of high pressure aloft, have seen a scattered afternoon cumulus field along and east of the I-29 corridor which will gradually dissipate by early evening. Friday night looking fairly quiet as south to southeast flow in the low levels keeps the environment pretty stable through the night. The low to mid level winds weaken a touch and back around to the south and southeast again so once again not anticipating much of a threat for thunderstorms during the day.
Cold front is crossing southeast Oregon this evening with gusts to 35 mph along the I-84 corridor in Baker county and gusts of 15-25 mph across Harney and Malheur counties. Have updated wind forecast for the rest of tonight with regard to the frontal passage (mostly to bump up gusts in the lower Snake Plain).
Data from the Key West evening radiosonde balloon shows a significant drying in the lower and middle troposphere. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico beyond five fathoms, as well as Hawk Channel and the lower Straits of Florida, west of the Seven Mile Bridge. A high pressure area will build westward over the Straits of Florida on Friday.
657 PM CDT THU SEP 1 2016 High pressure will continue to build into the region tonight, with NNE winds throughout the overnight. Tomorrow will be more of the same, with high pressure ridge keeping the winds more northeasterly and mostly sunny with some cumulus across Central Illinois and max temps in the mid to upper 70s. High pressure centered over the Great Lakes is expected to bring some very pleasant weather conditions through the holiday weekend as remnants of Hermine slowly track up the southeast coast this weekend and eventually stalls out just off the East coast Tue.
Friday should see temperatures a bit warmer as we should clear out earlier in the day as dry air continues to work into the region.
949 PM PDT Thu Sep 1 2016 Cooler weather will arrive for the Labor Day Weekend. The arrival of a cold front tonight will bring eastern Washington and north Idaho a good chance for rain showers.
Water vapor imagery and 02/00Z upper-air plots show high pressure well to our southeast over the general vicinity of the southern Gulf of California, with the ridge axis extending north across New Mexico and into eastern Colorado and the central plains. Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure resides over the west coast. As of 04Z (9 PM MST), temperatures across the region ranged from the lower 70s to the mid 80s.
have backed off the high level OVC conditions. Low level thetae progs showing a boundary or a cold front currently residing across Central AR. Lower levels are scouring out with still some moisture as the cold front is knocking on the back door now.
Surface cold front still on target for Friday with strong winds developing across most of the region behind the front. The low pressure disturbance currently near the south coast of British Columbia is expected to swing through Washington and the Idaho Pan handle, then lift northeast. Energy on the upstream side of the broad trough continues to dig the trough southward.
Light northeast winds of 5 to 10 mph tonight will become east Friday as a weak cold front dissipates over the region. (Friday Night through Thursday) In general, as Hermine moves northeast an upper level ridge will take hold over the Gulf Coast, with the ridge extending back into Texas. West Central Texas will remain on the edge of the ridge, and in general, better rain chances will remain farther west. However, with the ridge wobbling around, on afternoons where the ridge is a little farther east, isolated showers and storms will be possible.
The weather for Friday looks great, with another day in the low to mid 70s. The quiet weather will persist through the weekend, with temperatures starting out below seasonal normal levels, with lows generally in the lower to middle 50s, though the Chicago urban heat island will remain a bit warmer with overnight lows in the lower 60s.
Dry and slightly cooler air will start to work its way down into the Arklamiss Delta tonight but the main impact of the better air mass will come tomorrow when high temps in at least the northwest half of the forecast area will mainly be in the upper 80s. /issued 352 PM CDT THU SEP 1 2016/ The only break from typical summertime weather for the ArkLaMiss (hot and periodic chances for showers or thunderstorms) will be with a cold front expected to move through the region tonight into tomorrow.
It looks like the cold front is finally all the way through the mid-state at forecast time -- or at least, it's very, very close. Looking upstream in KY, dew points in the low to middle 60s are on our doorstep. This is exciting because it means much drier air and cooler temperatures are only a sunrise away. Winds have increased today, and will further increase tomorrow owing to Hurricane Hermine to the south and high pressure to the north.
1129 PM CDT THU SEP 1 2016 Fairly benign weather is anticipated for the next 24 hours as the region sits under an upper level ridge. The ridge is forecast however to build east, allowing for a possible change. Friday the low pressure system will deepen over northeastern Montana with winds increasing atop the central plains.
619 PM CDT THU SEP 1 2016 Fairly benign weather is anticipated for the next 24 hours as the region sits under an upper level ridge. The ridge is forecast however to build east, allowing for a possible change. Friday the low pressure system will deepen over northeastern Montana with winds increasing atop the central plains.
642 PM CDT THU SEP 1 2016 Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows upper level ridge over the southern Canadian Prairies into the the Northern Plains and upper level trough over the eastern Great Lakes Region. as surface/upper level ridge dominates the Upper Great Lakes Region.
It looks like the cold front is finally all the way through the mid-state at forecast time -- or at least, it's very, very close. Looking upstream in KY, dew points in the low to middle 60s are on our doorstep. This is exciting because it means much drier air and cooler temperatures are only a sunrise away. Skies are mostly clear this hour with a strong pressure gradient force owing to Hurricane Hermine to our south and high pressure to the north.
Lows tonight will be in the lower 70s inland ranging to mid 70s near the coast. Highs on Friday will be in the lower 90s except for upper 80s near the immediate coast.
1030 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 High pressure will remain centered well off the mid Atlantic and southeast coast through Wednesday.
Persistent frontal boundary remains off to our west this morning with the ridge slightly more off shore in the Atlantic this morning. With less influence from the upper level ridge, convection should be more robust today as the frontal boundary slips just into western Kentucky.
539 AM MDT TUE AUG 16 2016 12Z TAF CYCLE A trough axis approaching from the west will result in greater coverage of shra/tsra aft 20Z.
/issued 324 AM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016/ (Today and Tonight) The upper level trough that has been oriented southwest to northeast across our forecast area for the last few days will remain nearly stationary again today. As would be expected, showers and thunderstorms have developed east of the this trough, which has been east of our CWA for the most part. Temperatures will continue to be below normal through tonight with highs ranging from the lower 90s in our partly cloudy northwestern counties to near 80 degrees for southeastern areas under mainly cloudy skies with the possible rainfall.
Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase as the afternoon progresses with available low level instability and increasing shear in the low levels, as shown on the KILN sounding. Tightening pressure gradient from Michigan low pressure will give gusty winds this afternoon.
Sunny skies and temperatures in the low to mid 80s are expected today.
Warmer temperatures will be on tap for today and Wednesday.
1030 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 Seasonably warm conditions will prevail through mid week as a Bermuda ridge keeps a hold of the area.
932 AM PDT TUE AUG 16 2016 Warm again today, with inland temperatures still several degrees above seasonal averages, then gradually cooler for the second half of the workweek.
This unsettled pattern will continue with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected each afternoon, generally over the higher terrain.
This moisture combined with daytime heating, a persistent mid level trough and upper difluence will result in numerous showers and thunderstorms Today. Expect a little less coverage of showers on Wednesday as moisture decreases slightly and the mid level trough retreats into the Texas panhandle.
High pressure aloft will keep conditions warm and dry with light winds.
The latest water vapor loop also shows a mid and upper trough to our west, while an upper low is noted over the western Gulf of Mexico.
909 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 Low pressure in Michigan will exit the region to the northeast and trail a weak cold front through the Ohio Valley. This front will wash out this evening and then a weak upper level trough will cross the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley late Wednesday. Weak high pressure will then settle over the region for the end of the work week in a continued moist airmass. The cold front washes out this afternoon and is not discernible in the pressure fields after 0z tonight.
Northwest flow aloft will be maintained today as an upper trough moves into the Great Lakes Region. the highest pops near 30 percent to be across northern Sheridan and northwest Cherry county, downstream of the Black Hills Region.
Latest CAMS have a consistent idea that convection should be flaring up with a trough rolling thru ern OH attm. Will leave the heat advy in place due to uncertainty of showers/timing and the high dewpoints already in place. Stronger deep-layer shear/500mb flow arrives late in the day as the cold front reaches northwest PA. The high moisture content airmass will also support heavy rainfall rates, but storm motions should be progressive. Lastly, HX values should reach the low 100s in the Harrisburg/York/Lancaster metro areas and therefore issued a heat advisory 16-23z. Scattered showers along the Allegheny front around 00-03z should gradually fade to the east of the higher terrain as low-level flow shifts more to the west.
Stronger deep-layer shear/500mb flow arrives late in the day as the cold front reaches northwest PA. The high moisture content airmass will also support heavy rainfall rates, but storm motions should be progressive. Lastly, HX values should reach the low 100s in the Harrisburg/York/Lancaster metro areas and therefore issued a heat advisory 16-23z. Scattered showers along the Allegheny front around 00-03z should gradually fade to the east of the higher terrain as low-level flow shifts more to the west.
Upper level low over northern California moving east over Northern Nevada with isolated thunderstorms along the Nevada border this afternoon with a better chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. The disturbance will slow down and weaken in Nevada on Wednesday while a weak upper trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. Moisture will spread further north for a slight chance of showers and afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain, mainly in the Boise/West Central Mountains and along the Nevada border. As a strong upper level ridge builds over the Pacific Ocean, a northwesterly flow will set up over the region. Two cold fronts will transition across the region within this pattern in an effort to bring in cooler, drier air.