Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The upper low that produced rain and thunderstorms yesterday continues to slowly shift northeastward, with rain showers continuing across eastern SD this afternoon. Skies have cleared with slightly warmer temperatures today for our forecast area. Expect relatively benign weather for the CWA over the next 24 hours, with cooler temperatures expected tomorrow. The lead perturbation has pushed ashore across the Pacific NW, with a northern stream vort max/trough axis currently located across eastern BC and western Alberta. The southern stream vort max is currently moving onshore along the northern CA/southern OR coast and will dig into the southwestern US over the next 36-48 hours, becoming a closed upper low by late Monday night.
158 PM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 High pressure will cover the Mid Atlantic region through Monday as a low moves slowly northeast away from the North Carolina coast. Sun angle is getting lower so making it tougher to mix out the low stuff. High pressure and relatively drier air will wedge south into the area Monday night. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge over the western Gulf will stretch northeastward into the Mid Atlantic region. While under high pressure, the area should not see any rain, but could see patchy to areas of fog in the morning hours.
356 PM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 Upper and sfc ridging west of the stalled low off the NC coast will allow for a dry and benign regime tonight and Monday with only some fair weather cu during the day Monday. Baker As we started the extended, we remain in an active wave pattern in the mid to upper levels, with a cutoff low situated over Wisconsin and a digging trough over the western US, though the southeast is positioned under a narrow stacked ridge. A weak cold front associated with the first of the two upper-level troughs has stalled just to the northwest of the CWA.
VFR will prevail through the period as high pressure remains in control, except conditions are favorable for fog at TYS and TRI again after 10Z. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 82 64 81 64 / 0 10 10 20 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 82 63 81 63 / 0 0 0 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 60 81 63 80 62 / 0 10 10 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 80 56 79 58 / 0 0 0 10 10.
302 PM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 High pressure will extend into the region into Monday.
133 PM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 High pressure will cover the Mid Atlantic region through Monday as a low moves slowly northeast away from the North Carolina coast. Sun angle is getting lower so making it tougher to mix out the low stuff.
315 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 The upper level low presently over northern MN will move into southern Canada overnight. With that, there will be an overall decrease in clouds, though cloud cover will remain through our southeast as an upper level low over the Southern Plains begins to lift northward. The gusty northwest winds we have had through the day will diminish through the evening, becoming light overnight as low pressure pulls away and the surface gradient relaxes. The aforementioned upper level low will track from the Central Plains to the mid Mississippi Valley on Monday, though it appears that any precipitation associated with this feature will remain to our southeast.
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 High pressure will cover the Mid Atlantic region through Monday as a low moves slowly northeast away from the North Carolina coast. While clouds have cleared away to provide some sunshine earlier this evening, the wedge of high pressure remains east of the Blue Ridge. High pressure and relatively drier air will wedge south into the area Monday night. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge over the western Gulf will stretch northeastward into the Mid Atlantic region. While under high pressure, the area should not see any rain, but could see patchy to areas of fog in the morning hours.
/Issued 356 PM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021/ Upper and sfc ridging west of the stalled low off the NC coast will allow for a dry and benign regime tonight and Monday with only some fair weather cu during the day Monday. Baker As we started the extended, we remain in an active wave pattern in the mid to upper levels, with a cutoff low situated over Wisconsin and a digging trough over the western US, though the southeast is positioned under a narrow stacked ridge. A weak cold front associated with the first of the two upper-level troughs has stalled just to the northwest of the CWA.
The low level wind fields have started to rapidly increase and the threat for damaging winds, including a few tornadoes will continue. Instability across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas will also continue to slowly increase in conjunction with the low level jet and therefore the damaging wind/tornado threat will likely persist as the main convective line sweeps through the remainder of the area.
Meanwhile, the upper level low pressure just off the East Coast will continue travel south towards the Sunshine State through Monday, as a broad high pressure ridge builds behind it. High pressure will continue to dominate across the Gulf waters through the period, with east to northeasterly winds prevailing.
Thunderstorms are occurring this evening along the cold front, which extends across eastern Iowa into southeast Kansas. The front will only gradually drift east overnight, but most of our shower/storm chances will come in as low pressure tracks northeast into central Missouri. The second wave would be with the cold front as it moves through during the afternoon. The high shear should be enough to overcome the low CAPE, but what happens in the morning with the first wave is key to how strong storms will be in the afternoon and across the entire area. Tomorrow night lows will be much cooler with temps falling into the 50s by late Mon night.
631 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 The upper level low presently over northern MN will move into southern Canada overnight. With that, there will be an overall decrease in clouds, though cloud cover will remain through our southeast as an upper level low over the Southern Plains begins to lift northward. The gusty northwest winds we have had through the day will diminish through the evening, becoming light overnight as low pressure pulls away and the surface gradient relaxes. The aforementioned upper level low will track from the Central Plains to the mid Mississippi Valley on Monday, though it appears that any precipitation associated with this feature will remain to our southeast.
748 PM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 Aviation - Severe Weather Threat Late Monday as Upper Trough moves northeast out of the Southern Plains- Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm expected tonight as warm advection/isentropic ascent continues across central and northern Lower Michigan.
733 PM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 Upper level trough remains east of the area, while upper ridge begins building in from the southwest. A weak low pressure system will move slowly northeast away from the North Carolina coast. A pressure ridge will dominate across the area and expect warm and mainly fair weather for the next few days. A cold front will move through the area weekend with a chance of showers. Upper level ridge extending from the western Gulf of Mexico northeast across Georgia and the Carolinas. Upper level trough offshore of the Carolinas with closed low setting up off the southeast coast of Florida. Latest deterministic and ensemble mean guidance suggest weak low pressure off the North Carolina coast will move slowly to the northeast due to upper trough along the New England coast.
908 PM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 A few showers continue over the offshore coastal waters in associated with a mid to upper level low pressure situated offshore of the southeast U. Upper low off the se coast will drift to near the southern tip of the Fl peninsula as a deep ridge builds over the se.
642 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 VFR conditions with gusty sely winds to continue ahead of an approaching cold front.
The showers in NW MN are reducing in number but there is still a def zone band of light rain moving back east as the upper low departs. Vertically stacked/occluded upper low remains over our CWA, with deformation zone rain band in our west, clusters of showers still rotating around the center, and more organized convection to our east. The upper low should start to pick up its motion eastward and showers should slowly exit west to east through the evening, with further reductions in coverage/intensity with sunset and loss of daytime heating. Cloud cover should limit diurnal cooling some, so while a few locations may reach the mid 30s, most should remain around 40 or a bit warmer despite cooler temps aloft.
ridge will expand northward over the region Monday as troughing deepens over the central U. High pressure will remain to our east, promoting weak warm/moist advection and resulting in temperature readings 15 degrees above normal (with many sites expected to hit 80). That trough will be the first in a series of waves that attempt to breakdown the upper ridge, but will be relatively unsuccessfully as it weakens while being shunted to our northwest as it heads to Ontario. If showers are able to develop, the best chance will be during the aftn/eve (coincident with peak heating) and favor the I-80 corridor plus the eastern ridges given closer proximity to upper support and a little orographic lift, respectively.
724 PM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 A weak low pressure system will track up the east coast tonight and Monday before an anomalous upper level ridge builds over the eastern seaboard the remainder of the week.
724 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 A weak cold front moving through the Pacific Northwest this afternoon will drift into northern Nebraska Monday and become stationary Monday night. The goal is to take advantage of the radiational cooling tonight and forecast temperatures down into the low to mid 30s across wrn Nebraska. The Pacific front is not expected to produce any cloud cover and once again the temperature forecast uses the warmer guidance blend plus bias correction. The temperature forecast Monday night takes advantage of the winds and uses the warmer short term model blend for lows mostly in the 40s.
1020 PM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 Showers and isolated storms will continue overnight over the Atlantic waters, generated by the mid to upper level low that remains across the region.
626 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue in far NW MO as isentropic ascent and the exit region of the low level jet meet ahead of the front. We are also keeping our eyes on an approaching trough making its way into NW TX and OK through the afternoon. This trough amplifies lift and instability as it moves eastward triggering more widespread showers and thunderstorms throughout the region late this evening. The trough then shifts to a NE track passing though central MO bringing rain to much of the region overnight Sunday into Monday. Around 1"-2" of rainfall is expected for much of the region minus far NW MO where the front may already pass before the axis of the trough reaches the region.
The showers are accompanying a cold front which has advanced into southwest Idaho as of 0230Z and will continue eastward overnight.
733 PM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 A weak low pressure system will track up the east coast tonight and Monday before an anomalous upper level ridge builds over the eastern seaboard the remainder of the week.
Ridging surface and aloft will produce clear sky and calm/light winds overnight. Surface ridging will begin moving east of the Appalachians with winds becoming more southerly Monday but still generally below 10kts. Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 81 66 82 65 / 0 0 10 20 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 82 61 81 63 / 0 0 0 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 60 81 62 80 62 / 0 0 10 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 80 57 78 59 / 0 0 0 10 10.
1036 PM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 Upper level trough remains east of the area, while upper ridge begins building in from the southwest. A weak low pressure system will move slowly northeast away from the North Carolina coast. A pressure ridge will dominate across the area and expect warm and mainly fair weather for the next few days. A cold front will move through the area weekend with a chance of showers. Upper level ridge extending from the western Gulf of Mexico northeast across Georgia and the Carolinas. Upper level trough offshore of the Carolinas with closed low setting up off the southeast coast of Florida. Latest deterministic and ensemble mean guidance suggest weak low pressure off the North Carolina coast will move slowly to the northeast due to upper trough along the New England coast.
834 PM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 Upper level trough remains east of the area, while upper ridge begins building in from the southwest. A weak low pressure system will move slowly northeast away from the North Carolina coast. A pressure ridge will dominate across the area and expect warm and mainly fair weather for the next few days. A cold front will move through the area weekend with a chance of showers. Upper level ridge extending from the western Gulf of Mexico northeast across Georgia and the Carolinas. Upper level trough offshore of the Carolinas with closed low setting up off the southeast coast of Florida. Latest deterministic and ensemble mean guidance suggest weak low pressure off the North Carolina coast will move slowly to the northeast due to upper trough along the New England coast.
345 AM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021 The upper level ridging over the region has slowly given way to an advancing 500mb trough/upper low. However, the upper low associated with this system moves northward and into the Midwest quickly. Max heat indices get into the low to mid 90s from the I-55 corridor to the Delta. Better chances for severe storms is to the north of the forecast area, in proximity to the upper low. In the afternoon, the low tracks north and the gradient relaxes, winds decrease. Cooler air filtering into the region behind the boundary results in overnight lows ranging from near 60F in the northwest to low 70s south of I-20.
134 AM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021 Aviation - Severe Weather Threat Late Monday as Upper Trough moves northeast out of the Southern Plains- Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm expected tonight as warm advection/isentropic ascent continues across central and northern Lower Michigan. Strong, mostly unidirectional shear profiles with some backing of winds in low levels suggests linear storm mode with embedded mesocyclones along with a few discrete rotating updrafts. A break in the action follows for mid-week then some rain and possibly thunder possible by the end of the week as another trough moves out of the western U.
S/W ridging over the region will bring mostly sunny skies and milder temperatures to the area today, with temperatures likely exceeding normal highs by a few degrees.
A deep trough dug into the western US overnight last night, and a closed low pressure system is developing over southern Idaho this morning in the base of that trough. As that closed low develops, it will cause moisture to converge and be lifted in the cold air mass to the north of the low pressure. Several inches of snow are likely at the high elevations of Lemhi Counting, ID and southwest Montana including Anaconda to Butte and over Homestake pass.
Closed upper low will track east across northern Arizona and the Four Corners region tonight through Tuesday morning. The closed upper low then lifts north and east across the central U.
The forecast remains on track as high pressure continues to build into the region. Tonight, mainly clear skies and temperatures in the low to mid 60s are forecast. There could be some patchy ground fog in SW GA but confidence is on the lower side for that. As an approaching trough continues NEward it fails to deamplify, or even budge, the well established ridge over eastern CONUS, thus we can expect mostly clear skies and dry conditions to continue to prevail.
Weak upper level ridging builds in behind this system for late Monday into Tuesday with highs in the 70s both days.
A strong upper level trough is currently extending from Oklahoma into New Mexico. This has a strong cold front currently causing the active weather around OK.
256 AM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021 A weak low pressure system will track up the east coast tonight and Monday before an anomalous upper level ridge builds over the eastern seaboard the remainder of the week.
1128 PM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 A weak low pressure system will track up the east coast tonight and Monday before an anomalous upper level ridge builds over the eastern seaboard the remainder of the week.
1205 AM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021 A weak cold front moving through the Pacific Northwest this afternoon will drift into northern Nebraska Monday and become stationary Monday night. The goal is to take advantage of the radiational cooling tonight and forecast temperatures down into the low to mid 30s across wrn Nebraska. The Pacific front is not expected to produce any cloud cover and once again the temperature forecast uses the warmer guidance blend plus bias correction. The temperature forecast Monday night takes advantage of the winds and uses the warmer short term model blend for lows mostly in the 40s. Rapid north and east upscale growth should occur Tuesday night as a warm front lifts through wrn and ncntl Nebraska.
1111 PM MDT Sun Oct 10 2021 The primary focus in the short term is on the strong low pressure system moving through the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. Wind speeds are expected to be mainly light tonight with skies becoming mostly clear as an exiting upper trough is replaced by short wave ridging overnight into Monday ahead of the stronger incoming system.
409 AM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021 Upper level trough remains east of the area, while upper ridge begins building in from the southwest. A cold front will move through the area weekend with a chance of showers. Morning lows will drop into the low 60s and possible upper 50s in north-western CWA. Today and Tonight: Surface ridging along the eastern seaboard remains entrenched despite a weak offshore low pressure center. A vigorous low pressure to our northwest will try to push a cold front into the area by late overnight, but the forcing will lift north and no precip is expected. With dew points in the low 60s, overnight low temps will again stay slightly above average. Upper ridge centered across the Gulf of Mexico will extend northward across the area through the period.
336 AM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021 High pressure will keep it fair and dry today and Tuesday.
Temps on today will also be much cooler in most locations, with highs ranging from the upper 70s north of Interstate 30 to the mid 80s across Deep East Texas/Central Louisiana. Dry conditions to continue overnight into Tuesday morning, with cooler conditions moving into the region. However, the front looks to return northward as a warm front on Tuesday, with rain chances returning areawide by the afternoon. Should also see a return in southerly winds along with warm and humid conditions, as the warm front lifts through the region.
255 AM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 The primary focus in the short term is on the strong low pressure system moving through the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. Wind speeds are expected to be mainly light tonight with skies becoming mostly clear as an exiting upper trough is replaced by short wave ridging overnight into Monday ahead of the stronger incoming system.
126 AM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021 Surface and upper level ridging will be in place over the region through Tuesday. This will lead to sunnier and warmer days through this period with dry weather.
1106 PM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 A weak low pressure system will track up the east coast tonight and Monday before an anomalous upper level ridge builds over the eastern seaboard the remainder of the week.
Cooler air briefly follows on Tuesday. Wind shear is our most abundant severe weather ingredient in this case, while MLCAPE is favorable to start (1,000+ j/kg) but waning as the jet arrives overhead and the trough axis nears. Deep mixing is found in forecast soundings suggests not only a breezy afternoon (wind gusts to 30-35 mph in the west), but shows the risk of our forecast dew points in the low-and-mid 60s mixing out a few detrimental degrees lower. SRH is maximized along the cold front which arrives after 00z, but this is when lapse rates fall to about 5-6C/km. Cooler and still a bit breezy behind the cold front on Tuesday.
250 AM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021 Strong upper low over the Plains will work its way to the northeast today, and bring chances for showers and a few thunderstorms later in the afternoon through the evening hours. Strong to severe thunderstorm chances has weakened slightly, but a few strong storms will be possible late this afternoon and evening ahead of the cold front. Models weaken instability quickly towards and after sunset, but deep layer shear will remain strong with the upper low nearby.
402 AM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021 A weak low pressure system will track up the east coast tonight and Monday before an anomalous upper level ridge builds over the eastern seaboard the remainder of the week.
156 AM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021 High pressure will extend into the region into Monday. A weak cold front will push east across the area Monday night into Tuesday. Mid-level ridging will continue to build into the Ohio Valley overnight. Mid level ridge will move east on Monday as an embedded s/wv ejects northeast from the southern/central Plains to the middle Mississippi/lower Ohio River Valleys. It will be another unseasonably warm day with highs in the lower to perhaps mid 80s. An associated cold front trailing from low pressure will move east into our region. Lows will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s. On Tuesday, the cold front will move east through the remainder of our area.
On Monday night, the closed low will open up and move away from the region. On Tuesday, upper level ridging will quickly build across the area.
High pressure will result in another dry day with above normal temperature. A weak trough will transition over the area Tuesday, however, with minimal moisture and weak dynamics have maintained a dry forecast.
418 AM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021 High pressure and southerly winds provide another warm and dry day today before a weakening frontal system brings a chance of precipitation tonight.
1024 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 The upper level low presently over northern MN will move into southern Canada overnight. With that, there will be an overall decrease in clouds, though cloud cover will remain through our southeast as an upper level low over the Southern Plains begins to lift northward. The gusty northwest winds we have had through the day will diminish through the evening, becoming light overnight as low pressure pulls away and the surface gradient relaxes. The aforementioned upper level low will track from the Central Plains to the mid Mississippi Valley on Monday, though it appears that any precipitation associated with this feature will remain to our southeast. By Tuesday night, a deepening upper level trough begins to lift out of the central Rockies toward our area.
241 AM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 A deep Pacific trough/upper low will bring a more active pattern into the region the next few days. Southerly flow ahead of the trough will bring moisture into the area with increasing clouds today along with chances for rain mainly in the south today. The trough becomes a stacked low tonight and Tuesday as it moves through the Central Rockies.
Ridging surface and aloft will produce clear sky and calm/light winds overnight. Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 66 82 65 84 / 0 0 20 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 61 81 63 82 / 0 0 20 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 81 62 80 62 82 / 0 0 20 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 57 78 59 79 / 0 0 10 10 10.
924 PM MDT Sun Oct 10 2021 AFTERNOON UPDATE: With the afternoon package there have been a lot of minor changes while the overall picture remains the same for the incoming fall low pressure storm.
141 AM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021 A weak low pressure system will track up the east coast tonight and Monday before an anomalous upper level ridge builds over the eastern seaboard the remainder of the week.