Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cirrus from this low pressure system was observed over southern and eastern North Dakota, slowly eroding from the northwest with the track of the trough. Skies should become mostly clear tonight, while a west breeze develops under ridging aloft. Westerly flow with warm air advection in the lower levels, along with mostly sunny skies, will bring seasonably warm temperatures Saturday, especially southwest with the lack of snowpack.
Converted the High Wind Watch to a Wind Advisory for Ern Tucker county WV, per coordination with surrounding NWS offices. The systems sfc cold front is projected acrs the Upr OH region on Saturday afternoon and early eve. Temperature will climb well into the 60s across much of the region within the low's warm sector, possibly nearing record highs in a few instances.
It may struggle for surface temperatures to fall below freezing before the snow ends. One limiting factor for how warm it gets could be the low clouds. The low cloud cover would limit the mixing heights and ultimately the max temperatures for the day. The lower cigs will be followed by rain showers and moving from the southwest to northeast. as a rapidly deepening low pressure system tracks through the zones.
Precip will be mostly over by Saturday, with decreasing cloud cover, and steady or falling temperatures (back into the 40s) in the wake of a strong cold front. In response, high pressure aloft the southern U. will begin to ridge and increase upper heights across the Mississippi valley, including overtop the PAH FA. Due to the strength of the high pressure, the bulk of the week looks dry. However, by late days 6-7, the axis of the high shifts east and moisture return around it in the warm advection pattern supports increasing rain chances in the forecast.
1151 AM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 (Today and tonight) Strong southwesterly flow will continue across west and northwest Texas today in response to a low pressure system developing in the lee of the Rockies and will push across Kansas through the day. As a result, we'll see another day of high temperatures in the low 80s, which would break or tie the daily record highs. A cold front will push through the region overnight, shifting winds around to the north and dropping temperatures to around 40 for most locations.
250 PM EST Fri Dec 10 2021 A ridge of high pressure positioned across the Central Gulf of Mexico and Florida will gradually slide eastward, this weekend ahead of a cold front which is progged to approach the Panhandle of Florida tomorrow. In the mean time, high pressure and its associated anticyclonic flow will continue to promote fair and stable weather conditions across southern Florida and the Keys through Saturday morning.
Cirrus shield from trough to the south covers most of North Dakota this morning, and will exit from northwest to southeast through the day, remaining over the southeast through the evening. An upper level trough that is currently located over the northern Rockies will continue to dig as it approaches the northern Plains. Highs will be around normal for this time of year today, in the lower 20s across the Turtle Mountains to the mid 30s over the southwest.
1231 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 Key Points: * Warm front is expected to lift into the region today leading to significant difference from north to south today in terms of high temperatures. * Strong cold front working through the region tonight will lead to brief cool down tonight into Saturday.
The cold front is currently tracking southeast through central Kansas at the current hour, shifting winds to the northwest at 15 to 20 mph.
Freezing temperatures are expected across much of the San Joaquin Valley tonight with sub freezing conditions in the Kern Desert.
Temperatures were in the 40s to around 50 early this morning and are only warming slowly due to the lower clouds and light rain. Lower elevations should see highs around 60 with the plateau in the lower 60s, possibly mid 60s. The low ceilings will spread north into TYS. At TRI, MVFR conditions will remain then improve by late this evening with downslope winds off the mountains clearing our the low clouds. The low-level jet will eventually mix to the surface late in the forecast period with southerly winds becoming gusty to 25kts+.
1117 AM EST Fri Dec 10 2021 Low pressure approaches from the west bringing warmer temperatures and a chance for showers today. Showers/storms are likely on Saturday as a cold front passes through the area. Abundant moisture moving ahead of low pressure over the plains will keep clouds streaming overhead through tonight. Shower coverage is expected to increase this afternoon as a stronger wave moves away from the center of the low. A cold front approaches and passes through the region on Saturday bringing likely showers/storms area-wide. Went with a High Wind Watch for the higher terrain of Pocahontas/Randolph counties for Saturday afternoon/evening.
721 PM EST Fri Dec 10 2021 Stacked ridging over the region will keep the warm temps and high dew point airmass in place through the night and into the weekend.
The systems sfc cold front is projected acrs the Upr OH region on Saturday afternoon and early eve. Temperature will climb well into the 60s across much of the region within the low's warm sector, possibly nearing record highs in a few instances.
317 PM PST Fri Dec 10 2021 High pressure brings dry and cold morning temperatures on Saturday.
The well advertised cold front looks to be on schedule with it expected into northeast OK by 00Z then northwest AR by 03Z and through the southern portion of the area by midnight.
This activity will come to an end later this evening as the cold front just now moving into Osage and Pawnee Counties sweeps through the region.
CAMs suggest the initial wave of supercells will basically form into a line of organized storms along/ahead of the actual cold front overnight. Expect temperatures to bounce back to the lower 70s by midweek.
Behind the cold front, the severe weather threat will come to an end by early Saturday afternoon as winds shift to the northwest.
Lesser wind gusts, but also variable snow intensity, will also be present for much of the lower elevation population centers of northwest and west central Montana.
The cold front will dive SE through the state overnight.
446 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 The cold front continues to progress through east central and northeast KS. The cold front is currently tracking southeast through central Kansas at the current hour, shifting winds to the northwest at 15 to 20 mph.
549 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 West winds will persist through the early evening in advance of a cold front pushing southward through the Texas Panhandle. /issued 234 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021/ A sharp upper level low pressure trough and associated very strong layered flow and surface winds will cross east of the area late this afternoon and early this evening. A surface cold front will shove southward with a northwest to northerly wind shift, and cooler air will settle across the region. Highs Saturday are expected to top out in the lower to mid 50s.
Weak ridging builds over the area later tonight into Saturday morning before a more westerly dry and warmer flow develops Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Areas that received new snow will be a bit cooler on Saturday, while areas that did not receive snow will be about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than those that did. Low temperatures tonight will be in the teens, with highs on Saturday ranging from the lower 30s across the eastern and southern CWA, to the mid 30s to lower 40s across much of the western and central CWA.
the upper trough that is currently producing some light rain and snow across parts of the area early this afternoon will continue to the east and out of the area shortly after midnight. On the backside of the trough axis appears to be a small weather disturbance per 850-500mb relative humidity that moves out of eastern Wyoming and into areas generally along and north of Interstate 70. broad upper level ridging redevelops over the area.
(Today) The cold front has made it through the forecast area early this morning, with breezy northwesterly winds observed across the region.
A trough off the west coast will create a strong southwest flow across the region. This will bring in drier air for most of the forecast area, with warmer temperatures for the weekend and the start of the work week.
1043 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 (This evening through Saturday) Gusty southwesterly flow will persist through early this evening, along with ongoing dry and warmer than normal conditions as the low pressure system continues to progress eastward. A cold front will push through the region overnight, shifting winds around to the north and dropping temperatures to around 40 for most locations. High temperatures on Saturday are expected to be cooler due to the cold front passage overnight, ranging in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
Weak ridging builds over the area later tonight into Saturday morning before a more westerly dry and warmer flow develops Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Areas that received new snow will be a bit cooler on Saturday, while areas that did not receive snow will be about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than those that did. Low temperatures tonight will be in the teens, with highs on Saturday ranging from the lower 30s across the eastern and southern CWA, to the mid 30s to lower 40s across much of the western and central CWA. Perhaps some cooler readings will stick around in spots that have residual snow cover on the ground.
An intense upper level trough and attendant surface cold front continue their march across the central Plains and Great Lakes states. By late morning into early afternoon, the cold front will progress across the CWA bringing with it a forced line of thunderstorms. Sunday high pressure settles in at the surface and we return to dry weather and sunny skies with near seasonable temperatures in the upper 50's to lower 60's for most locations.
313 AM EST Sat Dec 11 2021 A strong cold front that has caused widespread severe weather across Tennessee, Kentucky, and Indiana will continue to march east through the weekend. Ridging in the Gulf of Mexico will keep us dry but also warm with highs remaining in the low to mid 80's. The only chance of rain will be a few showers in our northern waters on Sunday with a weak cold front.
A High Wind Watch has been issued for the lower elevations of Natrona county, which is the populated area most likely to see gusts over 55 mph.
(Today and tonight) Synopsis: Yesterday's cold front will bring much cooler, near average temperatures for today. Meteorological details: A much cooler air mass has advected into the Southern Plains in the wake of a cold front.
The cold front is currently near a Jay,Oklahoma to Ada, Oklahoma line.
the upper trough that is currently producing some light rain and snow across parts of the area early this afternoon will continue to the east and out of the area shortly after midnight. On the backside of the trough axis appears to be a small weather disturbance per 850-500mb relative humidity that moves out of eastern Wyoming and into areas generally along and north of Interstate 70. broad upper level ridging redevelops over the area. the broad upper ridge axis moves across the area with the flow aloft backing to the southwest ahead of a large upper trough off the west coast.
The cold front is currently over the western CWA and will clear the eastern CWA early this morning.
Temperatures will get warmer overnight as southerly winds increase near the surface.
Otherwise, remaining mostly dry as a high pressure ridge axis stretches from the western Atlantic into the local area. Lows tonight remaining in the low to mid-70s, with upper 60s possible along the far southern Martin County coast. The lowest visibility reductions look to remain around and inland from the KMLB area, but could see similar reductions at KVRB/KFPR, where lowered VIS has already been briefly reported this evening. Favorable boating conditions continue, as high pressure remains draped over the local area.
1037 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 Southward moving cold front has cleared KCDS and KPVW and will pass through KLBB around 06z. /issued 234 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021/ A sharp upper level low pressure trough and associated very strong layered flow and surface winds will cross east of the area late this afternoon and early this evening. A surface cold front will shove southward with a northwest to northerly wind shift, and cooler air will settle across the region. Highs Saturday are expected to top out in the lower to mid 50s.
Upper level ridging will quickly rebuild giving way to well above average temperatures returning for the first half of the work week. Sunday could see another fire risk along with gusty conditions due to lee troughing.
By mid morning Saturday, most locations should return to MVFR ceilings and visibility prior to the approach of our next cold front. An intense upper level trough and attendant surface cold front continue their march across the central Plains and Great Lakes states. By late morning into early afternoon, the cold front will progress across the CWA bringing with it a forced line of thunderstorms. Sunday high pressure settles in at the surface and we return to dry weather and sunny skies with near seasonable temperatures in the upper 50's to lower 60's for most locations.
At the surface, the ~1030 mb anticyclone continues to expand across the western High Plains region, and is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day into central and northern Texas. Subsidence behind the departing mid/upper-level trough will inhibit the depth of vertical mixing, with the PBL top ascending to 1-km AGL, resulting in temperatures peaking in the lower-middle 50s across the Caprock and Rolling Plains. Breezy, southwesterly winds will persist overnight as a low-level jet re-develops beneath the right-entrance region to the departing mid/upper-level trough.
The cold front continues to progress through east central and northeast KS. The cold front is currently tracking southeast through central Kansas at the current hour, shifting winds to the northwest at 15 to 20 mph. Sunday should be warmer with the southerly flow return as readings spring back into the upper 50s.
253 AM EST Sat Dec 11 2021 The severe threat will continue this morning ahead of a strong cold front coming in from the west. The cold front will cross the region over the course of the morning and will exit southern Indiana and central Kentucky by lunch time, ending the storm threat. Tonight should be clear with light winds as high pressure builds from Texas to Kentucky. The upper pattern becomes more zonal into mid-week as a ridge develops over the Gulf of Mexico (a bit father south than what was advertised earlier this week).
Not too surprising though as we remain under the influence of a rather large ridge of high pressure. This ridge extends from west-central Gulf of Mexico, across the Sunshine State, and over the western North Atlantic. Meanwhile, a surface reflection of this ridge is centered just to our northeast. This wind direction was responsible for the higher dew points we experienced earlier in the day. Deep layer ridging will hold firmly for the overnight keeping conditions dry with gentle easterly winds. Said front will then slide into the southwestern North Atlantic with a strong high pressure building in its wake.
For the rest of today, mostly to partly sunny skies and warm S/SSW winds will potentially give us the warmest day yet this week with high temps in the low-mid 80s. A weak cold front will then move through central FL Sunday with a few showers possible by late Sunday morning/afternoon, primarily north of MCO.
947 AM EST Sat Dec 11 2021 CIMSS steering winds shows a high pressure centered over the western Atlantic waters. The high pressure will continue to influence the local weather over the next 24 hours. High pressure will continue to hold over the local water the next 24 hours, resulting in gentle to moderate easterly breezes for the Keys coastal waters.
455 AM EST Sat Dec 11 2021 An approaching system will bring a cold front through the area today. Strong southwest flow will continue as showers and thunderstorms develop and move northeast in the warm sector ahead of the approaching cold front now over the MS Valley. Building high pressure and cold and dry advection will alleviate all the unseasonable weather on Sunday with highs only reaching the low 40s.
A cold front was currently moving across southeast Missouri and into north central Arkansas. As the cold front moves through the region this morning, more thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front. Temperatures will turn colder behind the cold front with highs today ranging from the lower 50s to around 70 degrees. High pressure will build into the region from the west tonight bringing a return to dry weather. high pressure will be centered over the Mid-South with dry continuing. Temperatures will be close to normal on Sunday with highs in the low to mid 50s.
A cold front will progress through the region overnight with gusty N-NW winds to follow. Temperatures will remain fairly cool this afternoon due to the cooler air advected into the region from the aforementioned front.
This pattern will promote above average temperatures with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 20s across the Turtle Mountains to the lower 40s southwest. The ridge will start to flatten and deamplify tonight as the axis approaches western North Dakota.
With mainly clear skies tonight, we would ordinarily expect temperatures to bottom out with fresh snow cover, but with winds remaining moderate and becoming southwesterly as surface ridging to our south moves off to the east, temperatures will remain in check.
Gusts up to 60 mph are expected across the higher elevations and mountains.
Aloft today we will be in northwest flow with the departed trof to our east with breezy westerly winds at the surface around 15-20 mph.
453 AM CST Sat Dec 11 2021 (Today) The cold front has made it through the forecast area early this morning, with breezy northwesterly winds observed across the region.
552 AM EST Sat Dec 11 2021 Showers/storms are likely across the region today as a cold front moves through.
402 AM EST Sat Dec 11 2021 Showers and thunderstorms will continue this morning ahead of a cold front moving through the Ohio Valley. A drier and cooler airmass will spread into the region this afternoon into tonight. In continued southwest low level southwest flow, temperatures have climbed into the low to mid 60s across much of our area with dewpoints into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Pcpn chances will continue across our area until the cold front moves east through late morning.
356 AM PST Sat Dec 11 2021 Dry conditions and slightly warmer temperatures are expected for today. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO Weak ridging is developing over the southwestern United States. Clear skies and light winds will allow for patchy frost to develop in portions of the inland valleys and the High Desert this morning.
/issued 313 AM EST Sat Dec 11 2021/ A strong cold front that has caused widespread severe weather across Tennessee, Kentucky, and Indiana will continue to march east through the weekend. Ridging in the Gulf of Mexico will keep us dry but also warm with highs remaining in the low to mid 80's. The only chance of rain will be a few showers in our northern waters on Sunday with a weak cold front.
405 AM EST Sat Dec 11 2021 Yet another unseasonably warm and muggy December morning across the Florida Keys, with temperatures hovering in the mid 70s and dew points in the lower 70s at most island communities. For the Keys, this means the cold front attached to the trough will not push through South Florida. Yet another potent ridge will build across the eastern half of the United States, which will bottleneck the jet stream and all large-scale disturbances all the way up in Canada.
The temperature forecast respects the snow cover across nrn Nebraska and leans on the cooler 25 percentile NBM for highs in the 30s today and around 40 Sunday. The temperature forecast tonight continues to lean toward the lower percentiles of the NBM.
This activity is ahead of a strong cold front that will move across the area later this morning.
638 AM EST Sat Dec 11 2021 Showers and thunderstorms will continue this morning ahead of a cold front moving through the Ohio Valley. A drier and cooler airmass will spread into the region this afternoon into tonight. In continued southwest low level southwest flow, temperatures have climbed into the low to mid 60s across much of our area with dewpoints into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Pcpn chances will continue across our area until the cold front moves east through late morning.
411 AM MST Sat Dec 11 2021 Clear skies and cold temps across the region early this morning in the wake of yesterday's trough passage, and many high mountain and interior valley locations have dropped below zero as of 11z. Tonight, lee troughing persists as mid/upper level flow slowly becomes more wly. Moderate gap flow winds again look likely, with more widespread wly downslope flow over lee mountain slopes leading to warmer mins in many locations.
Ridge builds into the Northern Plains, with a WSW flow bringing warm air advection in eastern ND and western MN. Snowpack keeps temperatures near the surface cooler enhancing the warm nose aloft. Temperatures warm to the 20s this afternoon, with the lower 30s possible closer to central ND. Saturation riding along the ridge moves in through the mid and higher levels bringing patchy clouds at times by the overnight hours. Cloud coverage continues to increase Sunday afternoon as further moisture aloft moves along the ridge.
Cold front still well to the west, roughly from Chicago to Little Rock, and some isolated weak convection has been moving across southern Illinois just ahead of it. The severe threat will continue this morning ahead of a strong cold front coming in from the west. The cold front will cross the region over the course of the morning and will exit southern Indiana and central Kentucky by lunch time, ending the storm threat. Tonight should be clear with light winds as high pressure builds from Texas to Kentucky. The upper pattern becomes more zonal into mid-week as a ridge develops over the Gulf of Mexico (a bit father south than what was advertised earlier this week).
545 AM CST Sat Dec 11 2021 Key Points: * Strong gusty northwest winds are expected to decrease throughout the day as deep area of low pressure lifts northeast into Great Lakes Region. Strong northwest winds behind a cold front have lead to a precipitous decrease in temperatures overnight. Clear skies should allow the surface to decouple from atmosphere aloft, allowing temperatures to fall to near freezing Sunday morning despite increasing southwest winds aloft.
As for the rest of the forecast, moist westerly flow will result in some persistent oragraphic snowfall develop on west facing slopes in the higher Beartooth/Absaroka mountains later today.
Have added both Cheyenne and Laramie to the High Wind Warning with GFS soundings showing a very sharp mountain-top inversion and 55 to 65 knot flow just below the inversion layer with steep lapse rates & strong subsidence present in the lowest 2k feet AGL.
Low pressure was located over northern Illinois early this morning with a trough extending into northern Wisconsin and the western upper Michigan.
401 AM CST Sat Dec 11 2021 Key Points: * Strong gusty northwest winds are expected to decrease throughout the day as deep area of low pressure lifts northeast into Great Lakes Region. Strong northwest winds behind a cold front have lead to a precipitous decrease in temperatures overnight. Clear skies should allow the surface to decouple from atmosphere aloft, allowing temperatures to fall to near freezing Sunday morning despite increasing southwest winds aloft.