Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cold front crossing the region this afternoon. An impressive cold front was crossing the fcst area. Cold front will continue to drop south and should be down to the NM border around 5 pm. Although Red Flag conditions have technically ceased behind the front (RH > 15%), have decided to keep the Red Flag warning in effect due to the strong gusty, albeit cooler, northerly winds. withe clear skies, light winds and relatively dry air over the plains temps should fall to below freezing most area, withe lows expected to be in the upper 20s to around 30F most of plains. Have issued a freeze warning for those areas which have not reached freezing this Autumn season.
Breezy, mild and sunny weather today as high pressure ridging builds in behind an upper trough departing to the east.
316 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 The area of low pressure will lift north along the coast tonight as high pressure extending from the Western Atlantic ridges into the region through Sunday.
A Pacific trough will bring a change in weather to the area later in the week with increasing clouds and winds, cooler temperatures and a chance of precipitation to parts of the area.
Due to this low stratus, do not have great confidence we will see much warming for much of the area throughout the day. We could see a brief mix of warmer temperatures just ahead of advanced cold front later today, and with a mild start in the 50s, have raised temperatures up a bit today. Broad and transitory ridge/height rises aloft will keep rain chances at bay, and likely until next Saturday at the earliest. Though sunny, temperatures will start coolish Sunday, but the rest of the week is pleasant with highs in the lower/middle 70s in general, or roughly 5-8 degrees above normal afternoon high temperatures on average.
401 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 High pressure will continue north of the area through Sunday.
351 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 A wave of low pressure passes well east of the area this evening, followed by weak high pressure. A cold front approaches on Sunday and passes through the area late Sunday night. High pressure will build over the region for the rest of the week. A broad upper ridge over the Southeast and Mid Atlantic states begins to give way to an approaching upper trough over the Midwest. At the surface, the wave of low pressure that brought rain to eastern portions of the tri-state area on Saturday will pass well east of New England. In its wake, weak high pressure will build across the area tonight. An upper trough and cold front will impact the area Sunday night with increasing clouds and a chance of showers.
258 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017 19Z water vapor imagery shows an upper trough over the central Rockies moving towards the NEB panhandle. At the surface, a trough axis extends from near SLN to MYZ and a cold front was located from HLC to HSI. Precip will come to an end shortly after the frontal passage as much dryer and cooler air advects southeast. Lows are expected to be in the lower to mid 40s. Continued cold air advection through Sunday is expected to keep highs in the lower 60s on Sunday.
636 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 Ridge of high pressure across the area will remain in place providing dry weather through Sunday.
Fair conditions will continue through tonight as high pressure remains in control across the region. Easterly flow along the southern periphery of the high is expected to continue through the period, yielding an increase of low level moisture underneath a robust layer of dry air.
257 PM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017 Water vapor imagery shows an broad upper trough centered across the central third of the COUNS with the main axis now crossing the CWA.
451 PM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017 While the cold front exited our region early this afternoon, breezy to windy conditions have persisted in its wake as the upper level wind gradient remains tight. The forecast area will remain under a significantly cooler airmass, light and variable winds, and clear skies tonight resulting in widespread freezing temperatures. Northwesterly flow will remain in control on Sunday as an area of high pressure builds to our southwest.
This highly anomalous warm and moist environment is already yielding 1500 to 2500 J/kg SBCAPE. The rest of the forecast looks dry with temperatures climbing into the low to middle 70s, which is about 5 degrees above normal for this time of year. In the wake of the storms, with the passage of the cold front, winds will shift to the northwest and increase with 20kt sustained winds likely, and possibly stronger.
The big feature in the short term forecast is obviously, the cold front and its passage. The air behind the front is cooler and much drier.
552 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 Ridge of high pressure across the area will remain in place providing dry weather through Sunday.
405 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 A weak cold front will stall near the coast tonight. This front will move back to the north across the region as a warm front Sunday. A strong cold front will move across the area Sunday night. High pressure will build across the region from the west behind the front for early nest week. A weak backdoor cold front is slowly crossing Swrd into our Rgn from Ern QB.
215 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017 Showers and thunderstorms were currently ongoing across northeastern Kansas and northern Missouri in proximity to the cold front. This activity is expected to move south this evening as the cold front makes its way to the southeast and into the Ozark region late this afternoon into this evening. Some isolated hail to the size of quarters may also be possible with the strongest storms as the freezing level will be fairly low. Cool fall high pressure will be filtering into the region behind the cold front through the day Sunday. With cold high pressure over the region, overnight temperatures will fall into the lower 40s to upper 30s under clear skies. Sprawling high pressure will then linger over the eastern half of the country through the end of the week as upper level flow remains northwesterly.
As the low pressure system continues to lift out and away from our region, higher pressures quickly approach from the west as a prolonged period of NW flow aloft sets up over the area beginning tonight.
A trough of low pressure is currently racing east through Wyoming and away from our area. Otherwise, a ridge of High Pressure will gradually build across the west through early week, bringing a gradual warming trend to SE Idaho.
Sunday will start out partly to mostly cloudy ahead of cold front with showers and a few thunderstorms developing during the afternoon. The showers will continue overnight as the cold front moves through.
Main issue today is heightened fire weather concerns with gusty northerly winds behind an upper trough departing to the east.
412 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017 A line of convection lifting northeast remained ongoing this afternoon from Northwest Oklahoma through Eastern Kansas and into Northern Missouri ahead of cold front located from Southwest Kansas through Northeast Missouri slowly pushing east southeast. the cold front is expected to enter Northeast Oklahoma around 00z this evening and quickly move southeast reaching a line near Okfuskee county to Benton county around 06z tonight and exiting the CWA by 12z Sunday. A small severe potential window looks to be possible this evening mainly northwest of Interstate 44 during the 00z-04z timeframe before convection begins to become more elevated with the speed of the cold front undercutting the storms. a much cooler airmass with temperatures around 20+ degrees cooler compared to today are forecast across the region.
329 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 High pressure remains anchored from north Georgia up to the mid Atlantic region. A light easterly flow around the High has helped maintain a large area of low clouds across much of north & central Georgia.
Latest satellite loops continue to show better clouds and moisture advecting in from the east, mostly associated with an inverted trof tracking west over the central and lower gulf combined with a weak seabreeze circulation developing along the immediate coast later in the day. An upper ridge will remain in place over the area through tonight. At the surface, high pressure will continue to ridge into the area from the east. A deep layer subsident airmass under this upper ridge will keep the area dry today. With the upper ridge overhead, temps will remain well above normal with highs in the upper 80s to around 90.
622 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 A wave of low pressure passes well east of the area this evening, followed by weak high pressure. A cold front approaches on Sunday and passes through the area late Sunday night. High pressure will build over the region for the rest of the week. A broad upper ridge over the Southeast and Mid Atlantic states begins to give way to an approaching upper trough over the Midwest. At the surface, the wave of low pressure that brought rain to eastern portions of the tri-state area on Saturday will pass well east of New England. In its wake, weak high pressure will build across the area tonight. An upper trough and cold front will impact the area Sunday night with increasing clouds and a chance of showers.
VFR conditions will prevail areawide this afternoon and tonight, until a strong cold front brings gusty northerly winds, a chance of thunderstorms, and perhaps MVFR ceilings late tonight and Sunday morning. /issued 341 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017/ Looking at one more summer-like day before a strong cold front arrives tonight with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. A large upper ridge was centered over the central Gulf Coast this morning with our region on its western periphery. Temperatures will be hot for mid October as a mid level thermal ridge sets up over the area.
647 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 A warm front crosses the region tonight allowing a warmer and more moist southwest flow to develop over the area. Low pressure will track east through southern Canada on Sunday and drive a trailing cold front through the region Sunday night.
/issued 814 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017/ With high pressure building to the north, the east wind flow is forecast to continue today. So, have adjust PoPs and the weather forecast, based on the current runs of the Hi-Res models, which just tweaks PoPs and locations a bit, which looks to more or less limit the higher PoPs to more confined areas. The higher PoPs closer to the Atlantic coast, then migrating inland through the afternoon, and the Gulf coast by the evening hours. Broad high pressure over the Southeast Plains will slowly weaken today into Sunday as it moves over South Florida.
303 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 The focus of the short term is the cold front that will move across the area on Sunday.
The trough and low move out across the Plains on Sunday bringing a cold front across our area. Upper level dynamics pass well north of our area as an upper level ridge axis remains over our area making the front the only forcing mechanism. Then, moisture convergence weakens during the morning as slightly drier north winds bridge the front causing the line to break apart.
210 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017 The main forecast challenge for the short term is the passage of the strong cold front Sunday and its associated weather.
A cold front will approach the region tonight, but before it arrives CIGs will drop to IFR in San Antonio and Austin by around 09Z and at DRT by around 12Z. Highs are expected to range from the mid 80s across the Hill Country to the lower 90s east of Interstate 35 and the southwest part of South Central Texas. Clouds return this evening as well as patchy to areas of fog in advance of a cold front coming into our area from the north. The cold front is expected to arrive between 6 and 7 am Sunday to the northern part of the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau. All HiRes models bring a broken line of showers and thunderstorms across the area with activity decreasing as it pushes to the south and dry and cooler airmass mixes down.
436 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 Strong high pressure will remain offshore of New England this evening as a trough of low pressure slowly weakens along the coast. This area of high pressure settles off the Mid Atlantic coast late tonight into Sunday.
302 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 The low clouds will begin to break up today as high pressure moves off into the northern Atlantic and a southerly flow develops ahead of an advancing cold front. The cold front will push through later Sunday.
A strong cold front will swing through later tonight into Sunday morning with gusty winds and chances for rain showers.
315 PM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017 While the cold front exited our region early this afternoon, breezy to windy conditions have persisted in its wake as the upper level wind gradient remains tight. The forecast area will remain under a significantly cooler airmass, light and variable winds, and clear skies tonight resulting in widespread freezing temperatures. Northwesterly flow will remain in control on Sunday as an area of high pressure builds to our southwest.
340 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017 Satellite and models showed that the ridge was still over SE Texas at mid afternoon. Over the next 24 to 36 hours, a cold front will move across the state and into the forecast area. A prefrontal trough will push through the area Sunday morning with the front following during the afternoon. Most of the high resolution models have at least isolated coverage over the land areas especially ahead of the prefrontal trough in the morning in the northwestern set of counties. The global models, especially the GFS, had better coverage with the cold frontal passage during the mid day and afternoon period. Leaned toward the higher resolution models and kept the afternoon coverage isolated.
1128 AM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017 Main concerns for today include expected Red Flag conditions and strong winds, and for tonight the potential for freezing temps over portions of the southeast plains. An upper level trof will move across CO today and this evening, then exiting the state overnight. The forecast models keep the weather dry across southeast and south central CO, however they do show some showers getting close to the higher elevations of Lake county. Strong winds are currently being reported over the high mtn areas and passes, but later this morning gusty winds will work their way down into the lower elevations, especially over the I-25 corridor and the high valleys. Then as the upper trof moves acrs the area, the winds will become northwest and north, and will be quite strong this afternoon and evening.
316 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 Low pressure continues to spin off of the northern Outer Banks this morning as high pressure builds over central NC.
346 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017 All of the excitement is in the first 24-36 hours of the forecast which features the chance of a few strong/severe thunderstorms, a stout cold front (and associated gusty northerly winds) and a potential frost or light freeze. However, the better storm chances will be later this evening into very early Sunday morning as a strong cold front (associated with an upper trough currently emerging over the central and northern High Plains) plunges southward. Shear and instability will be sufficient to support a few strong to marginally severe storms, though the quick moving cold front will quick undercut any updrafts.
357 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 The low clouds will begin to break up today as high pressure moves off into the northern Atlantic and a southerly flow develops ahead of an advancing cold front. The cold front will push through later Sunday.
319 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 A warm front crosses the region tonight allowing a warmer and more moist southwest flow to develop over the area. Low pressure will track east through southern Canada on Sunday and drive a trailing cold front through the region Sunday night.
Another cold front, this one likely the strongest one so far this Fall, will push across West Central Texas tonight. A cold front will move into the area after midnight, reaching ABI around 07Z, SJT/BBD around 09Z and SOA/JCT near 12Z. /issued 416 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017/ (Today and Tonight) A cold front and associated good chance of thunderstorms are the main concerns for the short term forecast. We should see temperatures climb into the lower 90s, with breezy afternoon conditions. A cold front will then move southward quickly late tonight, bringing a good chance of thunderstorms, with a few marginally severe across the northern Big Country. Behind the front, we will see cloudy skies, strong north winds, and noticeably cooler temperatures in the 50s.
A strong cold front will move south across West Central Texas, arriving at the I-20 corridor around 07Z and south of the I-10 corridor by 13Z. Temperatures will be much cooler Sunday(at least 20 degrees) due to low level cold air advection. The Highest Pops(Cat to Lkly) across the northern half of the area for late tonight.
242 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 Ridge of high pressure across the area will remain in place providing dry weather through Sunday.
Focus this evening through overnight will be on passing cold front and widespread showers and thunderstorms. Area temp / dewpoints all running 3 - 5 degrees higher than this time yesterday continuing the trend of warmer temps and increasing moisture.
Expect to see a little more filling in across west central Minnesota, and most of this activity will stay south of the highway 200 corridor. Strongest forcing will likely remain near and south of the ND/SD border (water vapor imagery indicates upper level trough/circulation over Idaho (09z), propagating eastward). As the main upper level trough progresses eastward Sunday large scale subsidence is expected across the area, giving way to clearing skies from west to east throughout the day.
Models keep slowing the cold front down, it looks like TS/RA may move into GLH after 18z and slowly track southeast through the evening. High pressure at both the surface and aloft, will yet again yield quiet conditions over the forecast area as we begin the weekend.
140 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 High pressure will continue north of the area through Sunday.
The focus of the short term is the cold front that will move across the area on Sunday.
1123 AM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017 Positively-tilted upper trough is pushing into the Rockies, and satellite is showing an increase of clouds across the region. Precipitation and gusty winds are expected today as the trough quickly moves through the region. Behind this trough, broad upper ridging will build over the western and central CONUS, and then transition into zonal flow midweek. Some snow will occur over the higher elevations.
High pressure parked over the Great Basin will bring a continuation of above normal temperatures to the district during the next several days. An influx of monsoonal moisture this weekend could increase the chance of thunderstorms over the higher terrain. A strong upper level ridge of high pressure centered over the Four Corners region will keep California in its grip for several more days. This ridge will keep skies mostly clear over the central California interior through at least Friday with generally light winds and little diurnal change in temperatures. The heat will get turned up a bit over much of the Golden State this weekend as the center of this high pressure ridge shifts westward.
Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s. By tonight, a cold front will begin to approach the Mid-South from the north.
Expect storms to continue through the evening and overnight hours as wave slides southeast on the edge of the upper high across eastern Kansas and theta advection into east central Kansas will keep the potential for locally heavy rainfall through the night. Temperatures today are expected to be cooler than the last few days especially anywhere north of the frontal boundary ranging from the mid 80s north to the mid 90s south of the front.
939 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Under variably cloudy skies and mostly east winds of 10 to 15 mph, temperatures are averaging in the lower to mid 80s along the Florida Keys.
1043 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Oklahoma and north Texas remain under a ridge aloft, which is providing generally clear skies (except for a few mid-clouds in the north), warm and humid conditions, and relatively light south to southwest winds. A cold front over Kansas will drift very slowly south today, and may provide a focus for storm initiation later today. We could see some storms move into northern Oklahoma late tonight associated with the upper trough pivoting southeast into Kansas, but it looks like the majority of the convection will stay northeast of the area.
A weak upper level impulse rotating through the messy upper level ridge will aid in initial development around mid day, with most activity occurring across the west and north today. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s.
For today, extension of high pressure overhead will keep us under weak northerly flow with cool 850mb temperatures, and low humidity. High pressure moves east overnight, and while we will begin to see south/southeast low level flow develop across western South Dakota with a tightening gradient, most of the area will see ideal radiational conditions. The upper ridge continues to build in, folding over across the east.
734 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Aviation A cold front will move through the area this morning ending the threat of thunderstorms by mid morning. It will still be warm today with highs in the mid 80s but it will be much cooler Friday with highs only in the 70s.
Friday should be the warmest day as a large upper level ridge builds to the east of the region.
/issued 308 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017/ Wx map shows similar conditions the last few days, the surface Bermuda high ridging westward across the Gulf, providing a light south to southeast flow across the region. High pressure aloft covers most of the Midwest into the Gulf states region.
1106 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Update issued to increase POPs/chances for convection over the inland areas today, based in part on radar trends but also models showing a nice moist mid-level theta-e ridge over that area this morning through mid afternoon, providing moisture good advection. Inverted upper level trough will still be located to our west today. Upper level trough moves farther west/northwest of the area on Friday.
950 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Fog has diminished through the lower terrain in the past few hours as the diurnal heating cycle kicked in. Slow moving upper level low to our east will continue cloud cover over the James River Valley through most of the day as previous forecast looks to be on track. Currently, northwest flow aloft with a building upper level ridge over the Northern Rockies and a closed upper low over northern Minnesota. At the surface, a high pressure ridge extends south across most of North Dakota. Fog potential remains across most of central ND primarily outside of the low clouds with low/zero T/Td spreads currently. Closed upper low/upper trough over northern Minnesota is slow to move east today. Farther west, thermal ridge starts to develop/strengthen underneath the amplifying ridge across central Montana.
An upper level low near Del Rio, TX moving away from the region and high pressure to our northwest should inhibit scattered showers through the TAF forecast period. The majority of North TX remains under influence of the upper ridge with subsidence in control.
1209 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Rain chances will continue, and escalate into Friday as a cold front slides toward the Upper Ohio Valley Region. Upper-level low will push southeast through the day, with the surface cold front dragging through in the afternoon. Nevertheless, SPC has outlined the Ridges in a day 2 Slight Risk. High pressure will build in behind the cold front, bringing a drying trend heading into the weekend. An approaching trough will return low shower/storm chances for Mon before a large upper high drifts E from the Plains and Midwest. largely east of the ridges by noon.