Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
640 PM EST Thu Dec 16 2021 Look for increasing clouds on Friday with highs in the lower 40s.
/issued 352 PM CST Thu Dec 16 2021/ A cold front currently bisects the forecast area at 3PM. Temperatures have already fallen into the low to mid 50s behind the front, with mid to upper 60s ahead of the front. An upper trough over the California coast will continue to dive south into Baja California over the next 36 hours or so. As it does, expect the stalled front to lift back as a warm front during the day on Friday.
822 PM CST Thu Dec 16 2021 A cold front is currently over the forecast area this evening. This front will stall over north Mississippi and will move back northward as a warm front Friday. We should catch a break in the rain as the warm front gets north of the forecast area.
Cold front passed through the region today bringing a round of light snow to the area. Base of an upper level trough will pass through tonight. Better accumulations may still be found on the higher passes and near ridgetop level where an additional 3 to 5 inches is still possible. Snow should end Friday morning with somewhat breezy conditions continuing across the high country, lower Snake Plain and Magic Valley.
313 PM CST Thu Dec 16 2021 Low pressure is analyzed around 970 mb early this afternoon over James Bay.
18z data has an intense low near James Bay Canada with a cold front running through the Ohio Valley and into the big bend of Texas. High pressure was located over the central and northern Plains. Winds will continue to slowly decrease late this afternoon as the storm system moves further into Canada and high pressure moves east from the Plains. Tonight and Friday will be quiet and dry with temperatures near normal as the high moves toward the Ohio Valley.
Aloft, mid-level ridging sprawled across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through central Florida, with pockets of moisture mainly confined along deep east-southeast flow over the Straits. Continuing from the previous synopsis, an expansive high pressure over the Eastern Seaboard and the Western North Atlantic will support fresh to strong east breezes tonight through Friday.
1038 PM MST Thu Dec 16 2021 WV imagery this aftn shows the cyclone responsible for yesterday's windy conditions and snow well into nern CN, with trailing vort lobes over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions. Predominant upper flow across the nrn Plains is westerly on the downstream side of a fairly broad, shallow trof across the wrn CONUS. Much cooler temperatures are present over nrn MT/srn SK, with single digit readings above and below zero.
216 AM CST Fri Dec 17 2021 High pressure blanketed areas from the Upper Great Plains into the Southeast U. High pressure returns for the beginning of the weekend with northwest flow keeping chilly, seasonable December weather in place. Look for highs ranging from the low to upper 30s.
In response to an upper trough moving out of the Rockies and weak surface cyclogenesis across the Red River Valley the stalled front will lift north as a warm front today. Weak low pressure will track along the stalled front tonight as the upper trough pushes into the upper Midwest.
315 AM EST Fri Dec 17 2021 Look for increasing clouds today with highs in the lower 40s.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 58 69 40 49 / 30 50 90 60 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 56 68 39 47 / 50 40 90 70 0 Oak Ridge, TN 65 56 67 37 46 / 70 30 90 60 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 49 66 36 43 / 70 20 80 80 10.
VFR conditions will return to all terminals during the afternoon hours, with a cold front shifting winds to the north during the late evening. This will help keep the area a little warmer than the previous night. A cold front will move through the region late tomorrow afternoon and could bring a low potential for light precipitation over the far southeastern Rolling Plains. Downstream from these two troughs will be a jet streak, the core of which will extend across southern Ontario and southern Quebec, but the tail of which is progged to be over the South Plains/Panhandle region. The interaction of the cold front into fairly good low level moisture for mid-December, possibly aided by upper support from the entrance region of the jet streak, will support the continuation of a slight chance mention for thunderstorms.
230 AM CST Fri Dec 17 2021 Early this morning, a narrow ridge of high pressure extended from the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley and southeast U. Upper air analysis shows a broad positive tilt trof out west.
1000 PM MST Thu Dec 16 2021 Dry and briefly cooler conditions are expected before temperatures warm back up late in the weekend.
230 AM CST Fri Dec 17 2021 Quiet weather continues today with seasonable high temperatures in the low 20s to low 30s. An upper-level trough continues to approach the area from the west, pushing upper-level moisture along with it.
Otherwise, looking at temperature trends, did have to make some adjustments to overnight lows based on current obs and accounting for the northward advancing warm front.
The far southwest has been a bit warmer in the lower 20s than anticipated. This should begin to drop off over the next few hours as the cold front arrives and rapidly drops off temps to within expected parameters. Temperatures rebound a bit for the weekend as a stronger ridge moves into the area. Becoming NW at 15 to 20 knots early Friday Morning with the passage of a cold front.
/issued 822 PM CST Thu Dec 16 2021/ A cold front is currently over the forecast area this evening. This front will stall over north Mississippi and will move back northward as a warm front Friday. We should catch a break in the rain as the warm front gets north of the forecast area.
Highs will still be on the warmer side of things today and tomorrow, with the area remaining in the 60s.
Cold front remains just to our west with rain showers expected near the front this morning. Discussion: Water vapor imagery places a deep trough across the Rockies this morning with subtropical ridging extending across the GoM and western Atlantic.
1054 PM CST Thu Dec 16 2021 (This evening through Friday) At 3 pm, the cold front had just moved through San Angelo and was still inching it's way to the south, but it should not make much more progress before it stalls out this evening. Aloft, some weak lift in the southwest flow downstream of large trough across the west should interact with moisture flowing into the elevated frontal zone to kick off some showers and thunderstorm activity across the area Friday. Rain chances will initially be highest across the north and east, but will begin to shift south Friday evening as a stronger cold front moves through the area.
Dry weather and slightly warmer for this weekend. Thursday afternoon discussion: Longwave troughing will be replaced with ridging Friday through this weekend, allowing for slightly warmer temperatures and offshore flow to develop.
153 AM MST Fri Dec 17 2021 Dry and briefly cooler conditions are expected before temperatures warm back up late in the weekend.
1034 PM CST Thu Dec 16 2021 Very weak ridging will move through overnight with a small wave expected to move into the Northern Plains late tonight into Friday. The low levels are a bit on the dry side.
1215 AM EST Fri Dec 17 2021 Look for increasing clouds on Friday with highs in the lower 40s.
400 AM EST Fri Dec 17 2021 Ridging aloft over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida early this morning shifts eastward and begins to flatten out through the next several days. At the surface, high pressure centered to our northeast will hold through the weekend, with east winds becoming southeasterly.
This warm advection is brought to us by a mid-lvl trough beginning to move into the Northern Rockies this morning. TODAY: Light snow may begin to develop along the Highway 14 corridor this morning, but is expected to shift further north as 850 mb front surges towards the northern portions of the state. TONIGHT: An inverted trough will slide eastward this evening, allowing colder air to begin to filter southeast through the night.
Scattered snow showers associated with an upper trough will continue this evening and gradually taper off by early Friday morning as the trough moves further east. Snowfall possible over the higher elevations with mostly dry conditions elsewhere. Temperatures in the valley have warmed above freezing melting off much of the low elevation snow pack. Baker Valley, Burns and the Lower Treasure Valley have the highest probability of fog tonight. Upper level ridge builds over the region Friday setting up a weak inversion.
This positively tilted feature will generate an area of light snow along a warm front across northeast South Dakota later this morning. Low temperatures will range from slightly below zero in the northwest to the low teens in the southeastern part of the forecast area.
234 AM PST Fri Dec 17 2021 After a damp night west of the mountains, offshore flow under an approaching ridge aloft, will bring dry and warmer weather into the weekend. Developing low pressure off West Coast will steer Pacific moisture inland later in the week, with increasing chances for rain. The sfc pressure gradient from the high desert areas has been trending offshore. A weak trough is exiting the region today as a ridge builds aloft through Saturday. The surface response is building high pressure over the Great Basin, and offshore flow over SoCal. This will scour out the marine layer clouds, and leave a fair and warmer afternoon. It will be a bit warmer on Saturday as well, as the weakening Santa Ana pattern continues.
516 AM CST Fri Dec 17 2021 Quiet weather continues today with seasonable high temperatures in the low 20s to low 30s. An upper-level trough continues to approach the area from the west, pushing upper-level moisture along with it.
628 AM EST Fri Dec 17 2021 Look for increasing clouds today with highs in the lower 40s. Cold air advection this morning gives way to warm air advection this afternoon as heights rise aloft and a warm front approaches from the south. North of US 30, and toward the Michigan state line, a period of wintry mix is expected at some point early Saturday morning, but its duration will be dependent on how quickly the warm front lifts from south to north. This pattern will generally keep high temperatures in the 30s to near 40 this week with lows in the low-and-mid 20s.
Mesoanalysis data and WV sat imgry indicate broad, pos tilted troughing extending over the Wrn coast, w/ the main trof axis entering the Wrn periphery of the Four Corners region, and a long fetch of upper lvl S/Wrly flow positioned over the Srn Cntrl US. By Sat, aforementioned longwave troughing is expected to overspread the Cntrl US, w/ a fetch of N/Wrly upper flow aiding in driving a cold frnt through the Plains and into the Srn Cntrl US. As drier and cooler air filters in, PoPs will dwindle in coverage and magnitude from N/W to S/E.
As for the rest of today another unseasonable warm day is shaping up with temperatures again climbing into the lower to mid 80s during the afternoon. High pressure over the region will maintain tranquil boating conditions on the Gulf waters the remainder of today with east to southeast winds around 10 knots and seas of 2 feet or less.
In response, a broad axis of low pressure, oriented nw/se, has set up across portions of WY, NE and SD. A push of CAA on the backside of the low by this early evening then steepens lapse rates and leads to additional generally light snow shower development across the CWA.
The southwest will be a little warmer and relative humidity will drop below 30 percent. The area most likely to have the strongest winds at the lowest relative humidity will be a small part of the southwest. A cold, high pressure system moves into the area on Saturday. There will also be a little breeze which will make it feel cooler.
The resulting increased low level westerlies will begin to dry out the lower atmosphere and scour out low cloudiness by early afternoon. A cold front will descend southward through the TX Panhandle late this evening. Outside of this small area of mentionable PoPs, the frontal passage will be dry, with impacts confined to a northerly wind shift and the entrance of a much cooler air mass into the region. Cooler temperatures will persist through the weekend following a cold front early Saturday morning. However, this will not last for too long as a trough moves overhead late in the weekend.
402 AM CST Fri Dec 17 2021 A surface-850mb level trough will be poised to spread east across the areas this morning, turning winds for west to east out of the north and breezy. A generally homogeneous airmass should warmup to around the low to mid 50s temperature (F) area. Some cirrus may be accompanying an advancing cold front tonight, but won't likely have measurable impact on crashing temperatures in the evening and overnight. Cooler airmass settles over the region, but it's a glancing shot of cooler air as opposed to very strong cold ir advection that might hang around and influence the daily highs for days. There is a deep positively tilted upper trough that will be progressing eastward across the Great Plains on Saturday.
515 AM CST Fri Dec 17 2021 Early this morning, a narrow ridge of high pressure extended from the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley and southeast U. Upper air analysis shows a broad positive tilt trof out west. This evening into tonight, the front to our south will lift back north as a warm front, as a surface wave develops over the southern Plains and moves northeast. The activity will wind down from west to east Saturday, as the wave of low pressure heads northeast away from the area, dragging a cold front back through the region.
High pressure blanketed areas from the Upper Great Plains into the Southeast U. High pressure returns for the beginning of the weekend with northwest flow keeping chilly, seasonable December weather in place. Look for highs ranging from the low to upper 30s.
Winds also continued to diminish as high pressure approached from MN. A short- wave trough will bring a good chance of light snow, especially across northern WI.
314 AM MST Fri Dec 17 2021 An upper trough/clipper system is crossing the western CONUS, with the main energy pushing across the northern Rockies. A cold front will also cross the CWA today, with strong cold air advection. to the low to mid 30s over SC SD. Strong high pressure builds in for Saturday, bringing a warming trend through the weekend.
655 AM EST Fri Dec 17 2021 High pressure will move off to the northeast today.
Cold front remains just to our west with rain showers expected near the front this morning. Discussion: Water vapor imagery places a deep trough across the Rockies this morning with subtropical ridging extending across the GoM and western Atlantic. An area of low pressure lifts into the Ohio Valley tonight and into Saturday dragging a cold front westward.
This will lead to near freezing temperatures in rural areas of the San Joaquin Valley Friday night and Saturday night.
an upper level trough is currently moving across the region which has led to the light snowfall along the Continental Divide this morning. On the Plains, a weak cold front will drop south this morning which will help keep afternoon high temperatures in the 40s to lower 50s. For tonight, the upper trough will shift east of the area, while high pressure builds to the west. Another weak cold front will bring a re-enforcing shot of colder air into the Plains overnight.
a cold front will move through the area today bringing with it northwest winds gusting 25 to 35 mph with a few gusts to 40 mph possible. cooler temperatures are expected with high temperatures in the lower 30s to lower 40s.
642 AM EST Fri Dec 17 2021 Aviation -- Light Snow Saturday -- After a mostly sunny Friday with lighter winds and some high clouds streaming through, clouds increase Friday night as a low pressure system develops near the Ohio River valley. There remains some lower-probability solutions (about 10 percent) of near zero QPF on the low end to over 0. 3 inch QPF on the high end.
(Today and Tonight) Above normal temperatures will prevail across the area today, ahead of a strong cold front that will move across the area this evening and overnight.
630 AM CST Fri Dec 17 2021 (Today and Tonight) Above normal temperatures will prevail across the area today, ahead of a strong cold front that will move across the area this evening and overnight.
Mid-level ridging across the Florida peninsula early in the period will shift eastward into the western Atlc. While east-west oriented surface ridging remains north of the area, the trend is for gradual weakening as the center pushes further into the western Atlc. Weak east-west oriented surface ridging continues north of the local waters.
427 AM EST Fri Dec 17 2021 A low pressure system approaches the Ohio Valley from the southwest today into Saturday bringing rain.
Today Expansive long-wave ridging maintains a dominant footprint over the Florida peninsula. Embedded within this larger scale feature is a weak inverted trough characterized by an airmass bereft of moisture.
QG forcing is also waning so with limited upper level support, favorable orographics and lift from the trough will have to provide the ascent to keep snow going. High pressure builds in Saturday but as wind flow will remain from the north through northwest, cold advection will continue keeping high temps on the cool sides of things.
A cold front will push from northwest to southeast today, with the back door segment of the cold front pushing southward across the plains this afternoon.
337 AM MST Fri Dec 17 2021 An upper trough/clipper system is crossing the western CONUS, with the main energy pushing across the northern Rockies. A cold front will also cross the CWA today, with strong cold air advection. to the low to mid 30s over SC SD. Strong high pressure builds in for Saturday, bringing a warming trend through the weekend.
High temperatures today will range mostly in the lower 40s, still about 5 degrees above normal. The blustery air overspreads the area tonight as the cold front moves in.
The longwave upper trough will continue towards the Four Corners today and cross the Rockies and into the Upper and Central Plains Saturday with a weak extension of the trough getting cutoff near Baja Cali as the remainder of the wave pushes east this weekend.
Despite this, we'll manage to break into the low to mid 70s this afternoon, over 10 degrees above normal. Today will be the last warm day through the weekend as a massive trough progresses across Central CONUS this afternoon, pushing a very strong cold front through our area overnight. Rain is expected to remain along and south of the Lower Trans Pecos, and not much accumulation (less than 0.
/issued 400 AM EST Fri Dec 17 2021/ Ridging aloft over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida early this morning shifts eastward and begins to flatten out through the next several days. At the surface, high pressure centered to our northeast will hold through the weekend, with east winds becoming southeasterly.
527 AM CST Fri Dec 17 2021 For the 12Z TAFs, a cold front will move across the terminal sites today with winds becoming north in its wake. The longwave upper trough will continue towards the Four Corners today and cross the Rockies and into the Upper and Central Plains Saturday with a weak extension of the trough getting cutoff near Baja Cali as the remainder of the wave pushes east this weekend.
242 AM MST Fri Dec 17 2021 A cold front is moving through the forecast area early this morning. High pressure moves in tonight which will clear the skies. Temperatures rebound on Saturday as an upper ridge moves through the area.
With a positively tilted trough axis spread across the western US, satellite imagery shows mid to high-level clouds streaming over portions of Arizona early this morning. This theme continues as the pattern slowly drifts eastward, eventually splitting into a cut-off low that develops over the weekend just south of the border.
A cold front will pass through the area late this evening, bringing a northerly wind shift to all terminals before midnight tonight. The resulting increased low level westerlies will begin to dry out the lower atmosphere and scour out low cloudiness by early afternoon. A cold front will descend southward through the TX Panhandle late this evening. Outside of this small area of mentionable PoPs, the frontal passage will be dry, with impacts confined to a northerly wind shift and the entrance of a much cooler air mass into the region. Cooler temperatures will persist through the weekend following a cold front early Saturday morning. However, this will not last for too long as a trough moves overhead late in the weekend.
A surface-850mb level trough will be poised to spread east across the areas this morning, turning winds for west to east out of the north and breezy. A generally homogeneous airmass should warmup to around the low to mid 50s temperature (F) area. Some cirrus may be accompanying an advancing cold front tonight, but won't likely have measurable impact on crashing temperatures in the evening and overnight. Cooler airmass settles over the region, but it's a glancing shot of cooler air as opposed to very strong cold ir advection that might hang around and influence the daily highs for days. There is a deep positively tilted upper trough that will be progressing eastward across the Great Plains on Saturday.
In response to an upper trough moving out of the Rockies and weak surface cyclogenesis across the Red River Valley the stalled front will lift north as a warm front today. Weak low pressure will track along the stalled front tonight as the upper trough pushes into the upper Midwest. By late tonight the front will start pushing SE as a cold front and showers/thunderstorms will start spreading across the Mid-South again. The upper support quickly lifts NE as a weakening cold front progresses across the Mid-South. Expect early morning highs as much cooler air will filter into the region on brisk north winds by the afternoon.
Clouds will decrease through the day with surface ridging building in from the west.
1102 AM MST Fri Dec 17 2021 18Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the next 24 hours with the main notable weather feature coming in the form of a cold front that will sag into New Mexico from the north today and tonight.
A cold front will arrive at the N terminals by 18/06Z followed by the remainder of the TAF sites by 18/09Z. Despite this, we'll manage to break into the low to mid 70s this afternoon, over 10 degrees above normal. Today will be the last warm day through the weekend as a massive trough progresses across Central CONUS this afternoon, pushing a very strong cold front through our area overnight. Rain is expected to remain along and south of the Lower Trans Pecos, and not much accumulation (less than 0.
1136 AM CST Fri Dec 17 2021 (The rest of today ) Warm front in the vicinity of the I-40 corridor will advance slowly north into the afternoon before stalling. Axis of heavier rainfall likely not to push too much further to the northwest this afternoon given the expected warm frontal movement. Cold front will move through tonight as an upper trough axis passes to the north.
349 PM EST Fri Dec 17 2021 A low pressure system will bring precipitation to the region through Saturday.
151 PM CST Fri Dec 17 2021 GOES water vapor imagery shows a broad trough across the northern Rockies and high plains early this afternoon. Lift associated with the approaching trough will increase this evening and tonight. However, much of the lift will go into gradually saturating the low to mid-levels. The highest chances for light snow still remain across north-central WI late tonight into Saturday morning with not much more than perhaps some flurries farther south. High pressure will slowly build east into the area on Saturday with modest cold advection through the day limiting highs to the 20s to low 30s.
The DGZ will not be saturated all of the time, so there is the potential for some light freezing drizzle. Temperatures are expected to be very marginal for impacts (around 30F) so we are not expecting too many issues from either the snow or the freezing drizzle. Some either some very light lake effect or light drizzle/freezing drizzle.