Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper trough of low pressure will maintain the persistent marine influence along the coast while providing clouds, isolated showers, and cooler temperatures to much of northwest California for the next few days. The upper trough over the E Pacific and west coast of the U. The latest models are keeping zonal flow in place longer before upper ridging returns. Thus, it was a little difficult to identify marine clouds on satellite until the higher clouds started shifting away from the coast. At this point, model guidances differ in the low cloud forecast at ACV and CEC terminals tonight and Wednesday morning, although lingering pockets of marine clouds may easily resettle across ACV and CEC during the much of the period which seems like the more probable scenario.
/Wednesday night through Tuesday/ As promised, a more active and temporarily warmer weather pattern is on the way.
High pressure extended from southwest Saskatchewan into Nebraska north of the surface boundary. High pressure builds into the lower Missouri Valley tonight into Wednesday with the surface boundary across Kansas indicated by models to be primary focus for isolated convection late this afternoon and tonight. As the high shifts east on Wednesday return flow increases over western parts of the region with convergence also increasing along the Kansas boundary.
Cool weather and a periodic chance of showers constitute the forecast through the end of the week as a large trough of low pressure over the NE Pacific sends a series of disturbances ne across the Pacific NW.
330 PM EDT Tue May 30 2017 Weak low pressure will form over the region tonight, and linger tomorrow near the mouth of the Potomac.
Finally, a cold front will move southeast across VA and NC late Wednesday and Wednesday night. This precipitation is associated with a shearing short wave trough. The air mass south of the front is characterized by surface dew points in the lower 70s with dew points in the mid 60s just north of the front. Further aloft, the pattern features a 592 dm ridge off the southeast U. coast and a broad upper level trough centered across the Great Lakes and extending south into the MS valley. The additional clouds will hold highs back into the lower to mid 80s which will support weak to moderate MLCAPE values on the order of 1000 to 1500 J/KG across the east and less to the west. Lows tonight will range in the lower to mid 60s.
234 PM CDT Tue May 30 2017 An upper level trough is over the Great Lakes area and another upper trough is over Northern Mexico/Southern California with west to southwest flow over the CWA. The upper trough out west will gradually move eastward bringing increasing upper lift over the area tonight into Wednesday. Expect temperatures to be even cooler on Wednesday with the increase in moisture and cloud cover.
314 PM CDT Tue May 30 2017 An upper level trough across the Great Lakes Region and an upper ridge over the Rocky Mountains will persist through Wednesday. A warm front aloft will lift northeast late tonight, a will be favorable for isolated shower development late tonight after 09z. On Wednesday, elevated showers and thunderstorms should increase in coverage during the morning with the higher 30 pops in the central forecast area.
An upper level low will remain northeast of the area as upper level ridging remains to the west of the area.
Big picture across the Nation is dominated by an amplified pattern with a large low spinning over the Hudson Bay and a high amplitude ridge over the mountainous west, leaving our section of the Central Plains under a northwest flow. Closer to home, we can see a weak cold front, that settled through the region earlier in the weekend, remains stalled out from southeast Kansas through central Missouri. Expect afternoon highs to range around the upper half of the 70s into the lower half of the 80s this week despite the northwest flow aloft as the prevailing jet stream remains anchored just to our north; thus keeping the cool air to our north.
1244 PM CDT Tue May 30 2017 A large upper level low continues to spin over Ontario with a vort lobe rotating through our northeastern CWA this morning. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure continues to build east and is forecast to remain over the area into Wednesday giving the area continued dry conditions. At the same time, several weak mid-level impulses will be drifting southeast through the area in northwesterly flow as mid-level ridging builds over the Rockies.
High pressure is reaching its peak today and temperatures are on track to be quite warm this afternoon. North-central Idaho will have cooler temperatures while much of western Montana will have similar, if not warmer, temperatures on Wednesday when compared to today.
In addition, a few storms may also form in the higher terrain across eastern Colorado and trek eastward in to far southwestern Kansas. Weak northwesterly flow continues through mid week then the upper level ridge pushes eastward overhead as the next upper level trough digs into the western United States.
Broad scale upper pattern features a eastern CONUS trof and a western ridge, with an upper disturbance undercutting the ridge.
Mid level trough from the Great Lakes into the southeast states will have just enough southward extent to keep high pressure ridge and associated subsidence shunted south and east of the local area. Given the cooler temps aloft and still some lingering mid level dry air, a few strong storms with frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds up to 50 mph are expected again.
Continued seasonably cool and breezy weather will continue along with a chance of showers tonight into Wednesday as an upper trough moves through.
Surface ridging will become prevalent Wednesday with less wind and less cloud cover expected. A few vorticity maximums will move across central and srn WI this afternoon and tonight as they rotate around the large low pressure area over nrn Ontario, Canada. Temps will be several degrees cooler than yesterday with 1000-500 mb thicknesses only from 546-549 DM.
Water vapor imagery showing upper ridge just moving into western Wyoming this afternoon. Upper low that was over the Great Lakes area yesterday, slowly moving north northeast. Upper ridge axis overhead for Wednesday with 700mb temperatures climbing to +8C.
The first is along a boundary stretching west to east along our southern counties and the second is along a weak trough and moisture gradient extending northeast from east-central New Mexico in the western Texas Panhandle. As the upper-trough slowly pivots over the region Wednesday and Wednesday night, precip chances for our area should increase but will likely strongly depend on the evolution of the overnight and early morning convection in the western Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico.
Mid/upper level low continues to be anchored over southeast Ontario. In addition, there is a weak mid level trough over the southern High Plains. Will raise the high today a couple more degrees based on this morning's upper air. Area will continue to be under the influence of mid/upper level trough/cyclonic flow aloft.
The highest Pops(Likely) will be across the western 2/3 of the Concho Valley, Northern Edwards Plateau and Northwest Hill Country.
642 PM EDT Tue May 30 2017 A weak trough of low pressure over the midwest will move will move across the area on Wednesday.
A trough of low pressure is allowing for rain and thunderstorms to stream into KLFT and KARA. and then southeast Texas where pops will be the lowest.
we will see another good chance of rain Wednesday even though there may be some weak high pressure aloft to our west.
An upper trough will push across the area tonight and Wednesday and bring cooler temepratures along with day of unsettled weather on Wednesday.
As for temperatures, warm air advection brings temperatures into the low 80s today with low temperatures tonight dipping back into the mid to low 50s.
251 PM MDT Tue May 30 2017 Less convective activity today over the plains and northern mountains with a warmer and drier airmass in place. High pressure ridge axis will be over Western Colorado on wednesday afternoon with even warmer temperatures expected. Scattered thunderstorms over the high terrain will be decreasing Wednesday evening, as a slight chance of storms pushes out over the eastern plains due to enough moisture advecting in from the east southeast.
The low-level moisture return will continue today, more notably across the southern half of our area with east winds becoming southeast.
The region will, in the bigger picture, be under the influence of an upper ridge through the end of the week. Energy from an upper trough currently just off the CA coast will dig into the southern end of the ridge allowing for enough weakness for the trough to slowly bring lift into the region. The frontal boundary may aid in more precip even as an upper ridge begins to build back overhead.
Broad upper low continues to spin just south of the Hudson Bay with cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes/Midwest. and northwest flow on the backside of the low across the Dakotas. A high amplitude ridge sits across the western CONUS ahead of the next incoming trough. Upper ridging will remain across the western to central CONUS through the end of the work week as the overall upper pattern is slow to change.
137 PM MST Tue May 30 2017 Warm and dry conditions will persist through the weekend across the lower deserts.
Looking at the big picture, upper air analysis along with water vapor imagery showing closed low over northern Ontario with troughing over the eastern third/half of the CONUS. A high amplitude ridge prevails over the Rockies with the next upstream low approaching the Pacific NW coast. Thu should be quiet as the upper ridge noted above slides over us.
330 PM EDT Tue May 30 2017 Southeast Michigan firmly entrenched under the broad upper troughing emanating from a stacked low pressure system now anchored over north- central Ontario. One final wave will drive the mean trough axis across the lower peninsula on Wednesday. A period of weak cold air advection accompanying the trough passage will ensure highs hold mainly in the 60s.
An upper trough will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms this evening.
An upper level low over Ontario will continue to affect the Northland weather today and tonight, before moving out of the region on Wednesday. The rain showers will decrease from west to east tonight, with high pressure moving in on Wednesday. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s, with highs on Wednesday ranging from the mid 60s to the lower 70s.
323 PM EDT Tue May 30 2017 Cold fronts cross late Wednesday.
Ridge axis shifts east of us Wednesday afternoon but again just maybe a subtle disturbance or two in the flow.
A mid-level short wave trough will move into the region from the west starting later this morning. A second area to watch for shower and thunderstorm development will be across the I-70 corridor as another short wave trough drives a surface cold front south through that region. Areas that see more sunshine should have no problem hitting the 80 degree mark while areas that see more clouds will see highs in the lower to middle 70s. We will hang onto some low-end PoPs overnight with weak convergence present in the low-levels of the atmosphere.
330 PM EDT Tue May 30 2017 The next in a series of troughs and cold fronts will arrive for Wednesday.
NW flow slowly shifts east of the area early Wed, with gradually increasing mid level heights and a return to warmer southerly flow for Wed through Fri. This return moist flow will lead to increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms first on Wed, as a warm front will be located across Central KS for Wed afternoon and Wed evening. Could see a lull in the showers for most of Thu, as the warm advection pushes the warm front well northeast of the area. A cold front looks to drift south into Central KS for early Sat, with the front lingering across the area for Sat. A weak cold front will move south into central Kansas by early this evening, before weakening/becoming non-descript overnight.
252 PM PDT Tue May 30 2017 Cooler today and Wednesday. Dry and warmer for the remainder of the week. Model upper level analysis data showed a weak trough pushing into northern California this afternoon, with the main area of subsidence on water vapor imagery taking a negative tilt towards the extreme northwest portions of California and Oregon. Even some light rain may reach Sacramento and southward, but confidence is lower in occurrence in the lower Sacramento and San Joaquin Valley. With the passing trough in combination with orographic effects, confidence is higher for measurable precipitation for the foothills and mountains. Because the main lift associated with the trough will remain to the north and lingering high level cloud cover, not expecting the development of thunderstorms as in previous afternoons.
A surface trof was just exiting the far eastern edge of the Wisconsin forecast area. Meanwhile, a second trof was found over western Lake Superior into northwest Douglas county. Embedded pieces of energy were rotating around the upper low and across the region. Thereafter, the showers will decrease as the upper low begins to depart and with the loss of diurnal heating. After 06Z Wednesday, drier air arrives ahead of upper level and surface ridging over the Dakotas. The ridging will be just off to the west. Have lowered max temps a bit on Wednesday with these cooler temps aloft.
1255 PM CDT Tue May 30 2017 An upper low churning over the western Great Lakes will cause a wave of energy and a weak cold front to progress across Illinois this afternoon into evening. Upper low continues to spin just north of Lake Superior this morning, with several waves rotating southeastward toward the Great Lakes region. With cooler air aloft now in place, highs should largely be in the mid-upper 70s vs.
Upper ridge building in over the region. Wednesday, upper ridge axis drifts slowly northeastward, and ends up roughly along a line from northwest to southeast Colorado. Light flow under the ridge will allow for slow moving, meandering storms.
Region will be in cyclonic flow aloft, with surface ridging propagating in from the west as the upper low propagates eastward today. The Baudette area (and adjacent portions of NW MN) will be close enough to the upper low for clouds and isolated showers.
237 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 Widespread thunderstorms will occur ahead of a cold front late this afternoon into this evening. Quieter, cooler and drier weather conditions return for Wednesday and through the rest of the week. Cold front moves ewd across the area overnight and should start clearing trend and westerly wind shift areawide by 04Z or so. Isold additional showers are possible Wednesday as trailing upper level trough makes its way ewd across the North Country. Will be noticeably drier with dewpoints falling into the low-mid 50s by Wednesday morning. Likewise, temperatures on Wednesday will be about 10 degrees cooler than Tue, much closer to seasonal normals (mid-upr 70s).
237 PM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017 Stable conditions from high pressure over the northern Rockies. As high pressure shifts eastward on Wednesday, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible in north-central Idaho and southwest Montana by late afternoon.
Dry and cooler than average weather is expected the rest of the week. Hail is a low threat as well given freezing level heights and position of -20C isotherm. Previous Discussion below: Model progged wind profiles, increasing shear values, and building daytime instability continue to look favorable for severe thunderstorms with the approach and passage of the pre frontal trough. The severe weather potential is expected to end with the passage of the pre frontal trough by early evening, though with cold frontal passage progged later in the evening/overnight, shower/thunderstorm chances will continue until FROPA. A cold front will move through this evening, with thunderstorms numerous this afternoon and evening. With passage of an cold front this evening, general VFR can be expected for the remainder of the week.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): 500mb ridge across northwest Mexico and the 500mb inverted trough across the southwest Gulf of Mexico will provide a northeast flow aloft across the lower Texas coast tonight into Wednesday. The remnants of Harvey will move into the Bay of Campeche tonight and possibly redevelop into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday. Will likely see isolated to scattered convection continue to develop offshore the lower Texas coast tonight and some of these showers will move across the coastal sections of the CWA late tonight into Wed morning.
233 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 High pressure centered off the coast will continue to ridge into the area tonight.
552 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017 A cold front trailing the showers and storms that went through the Ozarks earlier today, will make its way through the region this evening and into the early overnight hours. Behind the front, a cooler and drier airmass will make its way into the area overnight. The overall pattern will transition from northwesterly flow over a ridge over the western U.
High pressure will be to the East of NE FL this afternoon, with weak troughing over SE GA. The subsidence under the ridge will limit convective potential over NE FL, but will continue to see development over SE GA. Region will be between high pressure ridge to the Southeast and a trough approaching from the North. Expecting a weather scenario on Wednesday that is very similar to Today, with subsidence under the ridge restricting convective potential over NE FL, while convergence along trough provides focus for convection over SE GA.
1225 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017 Updated aviation section for 18z taf issuance Our attention now turns to a rather strong cold front pushing southeast through the Midwest and Plains this morning.
252 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 High pressure is centered well off the North Carolina coast. A cold front over western Ohio will track across the Mid- Atlantic tonight into Wednesday morning.
1141 AM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017 High pressure remained overhead early this morning while low pressure continued to circulate over southern California early this morning. Meanwhile, to the south residual moisture is expected to fuel another round of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the higher terrain. High temperatures will be cooler today in response to increased cloud cover and showers/thunderstorms, most noticeably across the south.
649 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 A cold front will sweep through the area tonight with strong to severe thunderstorms affecting portions of the region through this evening.
With high pressure today expect sunny skies with temperatures rising into the lower 80s. With return southerly flow temperatures slightly warmer in the upper 50s.
234 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017 Cold front continues to slowly move south this afternoon, and the afternoon convection has already developed along the front in southwest Oklahoma and the southeast Texas panhandle.
153 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level trough from the srn portion of Hudson Bay through nw Ontario to the Upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front extended through the cntrl U. from low pressure over ern Lake Superior. Even with lingering clouds and wind, temps over the interior west should drop off into the mid and upper 40s while readings in the lower to mid 50s prevail closer to the Great Lakes and over the east.
High clouds shield also working on exiting the forecast area with some brief low sct-bkn decks showing up just as the high clouds clear out. Otherwise drier air pushing in from the northwest fast with dewpoints already in the upper 50s in NW IA, and into the lower/mid 50s across SE SD and SW MN. Otherwise high pressure from the northern high plains will build southeastward through the day to dominate the forecast area tonight. This will result in clear skies, light winds and temperatures dropping into the lower to mid 50s for lows.
Relatively dry conditions late this afternoon across South Florida as the trough of low pressure remains to our east over the western Bahamas. The trough will slowly make its way towards South Florida tonight, ushering in a wet and stormy period which will likely last through the end of the week (and maybe beyond).
Areas of possible development would be from Deep East Texas across Lower parts of Northwest and North Central Louisiana this afternoon and early evening before dissipating, that will be associated with an inverted trough of low pressure from low pressure system in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Looking to the North, a cold front will be moving into the Four State Region along and North of Interstate 30 during the late afternoon and overnight, which will provide convection for KTXK and KELD during the late afternoon, bur more likely overnight and then across the remaining terminals during the morning and afternoon Wednesday.
247 PM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017 Upper level ridge will keep the weather mild and mostly dry through Wednesday night.
Surface wise, a subtle trough is located within our area with a weakening area of high pressure offshore of the southeast United States coast. A subtle trough will linger near the Florida peninsula, southeast Gulf of Mexico and our region for the next several days.
244 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 A strong cold front will move through the region late today and early tonight. Much cooler and drier conditions will return for the second half of the week. But a cooler and drier AM Wednesday. It will also be significantly cooler.
138 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017 137 PM CDT Drier air continues to spread southeastward into the forecast area on breezy northwest winds as a cold front continues southeast. MDB 246 AM CDT By Wednesday morning, a strong upper long wave trough for late summer will have taken shape over eastern Canada into the Great Lakes region.
A cold front will push through the area late tonight/early Wednesday.
331 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017 A cold front has made its way through Kansas and inhibited the chances of any thunderstorm activity. In the mid and upper levels, a trough is positioned over the Great Lakes into Hudson Bay while a ridge is over the western half of the CONUS. The above mentioned trough over the Great Lakes brings a secondary wave which will likely stay east of the area for Wednesday.
240 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017 18Z surface data has a cold front from lower Michigan into southeast Kansas while high pressure was over the Plains. Quiet and pleasant conditions will be seen from late this afternoon through Wednesday as high pressure moves through the Midwest.
323 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 A cold front will sweep through the area tonight with strong to severe thunderstorms affecting portions of the region through this evening.
Bits of lingering fog/low clouds around the highway 20 corridor through northwest Iowa will flush out as secondary boundary moves through in the predawn hours. Under high pressure tonight, winds will quickly diminish, especially through the I-29 stretch from KFSD southward through northwest Iowa.
1133 AM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017 High clouds are streaming into the region through northwest flow, as an upper level ridge builds over the northwestern CONUS. Upper ridge will keep weather mild and mostly dry through Wednesday. Highs today will be in the low to mid 80s, with highs Wednesday warming near 90.
318 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 An unseasonably strong cold front has moved through Southwest Michigan early this afternoon.
An upper level trough is currently moving through the Northern Plains. This trough is expected to continue to deepen and close off today which will push the surface front through the area this afternoon. A cooler and drier air mass will then move in with the frontal passage dropping lows tonight into the upper 50s over most locations. As an upper level ridge develops over the intermountain west. Surface winds will become light out of the north this afternoon behind a passing cold front.