Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
335 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE POISED ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH A COLD FRONT ALIGNED TO THE SOUTHWEST BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A STOUT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ROTATING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPIRALING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED WITHIN THE GULF OF MEXICO. WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGING. WITH TEMPERATURES HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE.
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS EXITING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES NOW. THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS ALREADY DEVELOPING SOME RIDGING INTO THE DAKOTAS/IOWA REGION. AND WILL LIKELY TRAP THIS HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN. AS TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE RIDGE RETREATS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO THE LOWER/MID 60S OVER MN AND TO 55 TO 60 OVER WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
344 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION TODAY AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TONIGHT. A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA ARE UNDERNEATH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS DRY.
CLEAR EARLY TONIGHT UNDER UPPER RIDGE. WEAK COLD FRONT OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL MOVE THROUGH ERN OREGON JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AND WESTERN IDAHO DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
/ISSUED 1034 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015/ HIGH PRES CNTRD OVER THE CAROLINAS CONTINUES TO RIDGE WEST ACRS THE SOUTH INTO TX. WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES IN THE MID-UPR LVLS HELPING TO LIMIT RAIN CHCS TODAY. BRIEF MVFR LIGHT FOG AT LFT OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD BE THE RULE UNDER A CIRRUS CANOPY AS MOISTURE STREAMS OVER A DIRTY RIDGE. A REAL MESS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW U.
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES IN. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER WHICH SOME THOUGHT WOULD KEEP TEMPS COOLER. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. MODELS ARE COMING IN YET EVEN DRIER WITH THIS COLD FRONT PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.
Energy ejecting northward out of the base of the upper trough will enhance lift for showers and isolated storms mainly across north central Kansas westward as well as across southern Nebraska and northeast Kansas. Main moisture advection and lift will remain focused across the eastern Rockies and the western high plains tonight as the upper trough moves slowly eastward. Highs today will be dependent on how far south the front and clouds extend and will range from the mid 70s to the north of the front to the lower 80s to the south. On Thursday the main upper low pressure should be centered over the central Rockies.
231 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. WITH SOME ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AND PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NEBRASKA. WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN AT THE SURFACE. UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING NORTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE LOW WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN SD EARLY THURSDAY ALONG AN AREA OF GOOD Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS FINALLY MIGRATED INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST HELPING BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AFFECTING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE EASTWARD.
403 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE CHEYENNE WYOMING REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING. WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN BEING WEST OF HIGHWAY 14.
214 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CONTROLLING THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONGER TERM.
659 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL CROSS THE 4-CORNERS THU MORNING. HOWEVER SOME TROUGHINESS WILL LAG ACROSS WESTERN CO THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AS THE COLD CORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
PIVOTING TO WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR. THIS MORNING'S SHOWERS MAY HAVE TAPPED INTO THE BEST ENVIRONMENT WITH SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON THE SLIGHTLY FASTER 850 TROUGH. AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEPARTS. THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BRING IN DRIER AND COOLER AIR. BUT SHOULD RELAX AS THE HIGH BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. TOMORROW SEEMS STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH FAIR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.
Even the higher-res models such as the HRRR and Rapid Refresh that show the Iowa convection are not picking up on the showers further southeast.
A SMALL SURGE IN THE LOW LEVEL E/NE FLOW AND INCREASING DEPTH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ATLC SHOWERS. MILD LOWS AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS THU IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WHICH IS CLOSE TO SEASONABLE NORMS. RIDGE WILL PERSIST ALOFT OF EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA. BETWEEN TROUGHS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH AND MID WEST.
240 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRIGGERED BY SRN LOBE OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SRN CANADA UPPER LOW. BUT NRN STREAM LIFT IS NOW GONE AND ANYTHING WITH THE AZ CLOSED LOW WILL MAINLY REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH 12Z. THUS HAVE TRIED TO BRIDGE THE GAP WITH SPRINKLE WORDING FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING TO MUCH OF THE PLAINS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
A large upper level low will slowly spin northeastward from the Four Corners region tonight into the Central Rockies tomorrow. Highs tomorrow will only range from the lower 60s across west central Kansas to lower 70s across south central Kansas due to the mostly cloudy skies.
Moisture and warm air advection will improve early tonight north of a cold front which will briefly drop south into southwest Kansas. Showers and thunderstorms will continue across western and central Kansas through Thursday night as the upper level low/trough lifts northeast across the Western high plains.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION. AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES OVER THE REGION.
A large upper level low will slowly spin northeastward from the Four Corners region tonight into the Central Rockies tomorrow. Highs tomorrow will only range from the lower 60s across west central Kansas to lower 70s across south central Kansas due to the mostly cloudy skies. Showers and thunderstorms will continue across western and central Kansas through Thursday night as the upper level low/trough lifts northeast across the Western high plains.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM LOUISIANA TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A LOW CENTERED OVER ARIZONA. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST AND WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE MAIN TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO TEXAS. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
Lows will generally be in the low to mid 60s, with some upper 50s possible across southeast Alabama.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THIS AM. MIXED DOWN WINDS POTENTIALLY PEAK MID DAY AROUND 20G30KT WITH A WEAKENING GRADIENT THEREAFTER AS THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
300 PM MST WED OCT 21 2015 A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.
414 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
230 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
354 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE POISED ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH A COLD FRONT ALIGNED TO THE SOUTHWEST BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A STOUT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ROTATING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPIRALING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED WITHIN THE GULF OF MEXICO. WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGING. WITH TEMPERATURES HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM FDL TO MSP. WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS NOTED NORTH OF THIS FRONT OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. EXPECT A BREAK WITH THE PCPN FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE EAST FOLLOWED BY THE CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ITS POSSIBLE THE BRUNT OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE THE AIR MASS IS A BIT MORE UNSTABLE IN THE H850 WARM PROD REGION. BUT THE COLDER AIR ON NORTHWEST WINDS MAY PRODUCE A BIT MORE LAKE CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH UNTIL THE RIDGE AND DRIER AIR SETTLES IN.
/ISSUED 1032 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY.
234 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING GORGEOUS WEATHER TO MIDDLE TN. OCTOBER! THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL BREAK DOWN BY THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH CAUSING ALL OF THE RAIN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL EJECT SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OUT TOWARDS THE MIDWEST.
218 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AHEAD OF THE LOW SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WERE ROTATING AROUND IT NORTHWARD. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WAS ADVANCING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES EAST.
COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE THE LOW POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA UNTIL EARLY EVENING. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. A BIT WARMER LAKESIDE. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS. A BIT COOLER LAKESIDE.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH A BETTER THREAT OF SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE MILDER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. SOME BREAKS/CLEARING IN CLOUDS ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH LIFTS NORTH. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA TONIGHT RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S. CLOSED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL PUSH WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN THE MID 20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EXPECT A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 2000FT.
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES IN. STAYED CLOSE TO THE WARMER MAV MOS HIGH TEMPERATURES.
332 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 AS LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR EXITS TO THE EAST AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AND STRENGTHENS. LATE THURSDAY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. CLEARING HAS BEEN SLOWLY SPREADING EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE LOW. TEMPS WILL FALL TO NEAR FREEZING IN LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR OUT. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS.
531 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 SHOWER CHANCES RETURN WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A THURSDAY COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SE CONUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER MOST OF TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. A RAPID CLEARING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
645 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION TODAY AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TONIGHT. A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THE SOUTHWEST STATES UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA. HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE TONIGHT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MANITOBA. WITH SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY MORNING. LEADING TO A CHILLY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING.
600 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH RAIN SHIELD OVER ARIZONA NEW MEXICO COLORADO TEXAS KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. BUMPED LOWS TONIGHT A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. CURRENT THINKING IS HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND OVERCAST SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER ACROSS THE CWA. MODERATE RAIN DURING THE DAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL AT THE SUSRFACE AS MOSTLY EASTERLY WINDS HAVE KEPT THE MAJORITY OF MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND ONLY ALLOWED A SLOW UPWARD CREEP IN DEWPOINTS ELSEWHERE. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE LOW WILL OPEN UP WITH THE MAIN PORTION OF ITS ENERGY LIFTING OUT TO THE NE THURSDAY INTO FRI. AS MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER.
THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING WILL MAKE A NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE GREATEST LIFTING WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE CLOSED LOW CROSSES OVER COLORADO WITH H7 TEMPS OF 0C TO 1C. PRECIPITATION LOOKS PROBABLE IN MUCH OF THE ELEVATED AREAS OF WESTERN COLORADO ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE PASSES AND EJECTS THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL BE FILLING AND LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEAST AND OUT INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPSTREAM KICKER DIVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
318 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 TONIGHT AND THURSDAYS WEATHER WILL BE PRIMARILY WATCHING THE PROGRESSION EASTWARD OF THE LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
149 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH. THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR IS LEADING TO CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE AREA SO EXPECT TO SEE SUNSHINE TODAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES TURN TO THE SW WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO MODERATE. SO EXPECT TO SEE MOST AREAS TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S TODAY. ANTHR MSTLY SUNNY BUT COOLER DAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA LATE THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORN.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. SFC WARM FRONT IS STILL DRAPED ACROSS THE NRN CWA AND SFC ANALYSIS SHOW A WEAK SFC WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SLOW ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESS INITIALLY. AS THE SFC CYCLONE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY, THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS ARIZONA WILL RESULT IN DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA BY THURSDAY.
Overnight low temperatures will once again be on the mild side, with readings remaining in the lower to middle 50s.
319 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 UPPER LOW OVER WILL SPIN OVER ARIZONA OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO ON THURSDAY. THE MODELS HAVE HAD THE GENERAL IDEA OF DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW INTO COLORADO. AS THE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST. STILL KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO LIFT FROM THE LOW PASSING OVER THE REGION. WITH TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MONTANA AND WYOMING BORDER GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD TODAY AND EXPANDS TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME BREEZY LATE MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ALSO BE A BIT COLDER THAN RECENT MORNINGS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVERHEAD AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT.
THE LOW SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE OVER MARICOPA COUNTY AT THIS TIME AND MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND EAST. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE'LL CLEAR OUT PRETTY QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH. CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A LONE CELL NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN CLOSER TO THE CITY.
402 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH A BETTER THREAT OF SHOWERS.
338 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 DEEP UPPER LOW OVER AZ NOTED IN THE WV THIS AFTN IN SHARP CONTRAST WITH THE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SERN CONUS. THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW OVER AZ IN PREPARATION FOR OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN SEVERAL MONTHS. THE UPPER LOW IS FCST TO BEGIN TO OPEN AND PIVOT NEWD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
343 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TEMPS WILL ALSO START AN INCREASING TREND TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 5 DEG WARMER AND HIGHS THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. 01 HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA THIS MORNING AND WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S NORTH OF A BLACK RIVER FALLS WISCONSIN TO CHARLES CITY IOWA LINE AND INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK TO NORMAL AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS WE ARE STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.
FOG IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN DID NOT BREAK UNTIL A LITTLE PAST NOON TODAY. THURSDAY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW IN ALBERTA AND TRAILING INTO THE SNAKE PLAIN. ANY SHOWERS WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS AROUND BEAR LAKE AND POSSIBLY THE RIDGE LINES OF THE SAWTOOTH NORTH OF SUN VALLEY.
319 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER ARIZONA OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO ON THURSDAY. THE MODELS HAVE HAD THE GENERAL IDEA OF DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW INTO COLORADO. AS THE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST. STILL KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO LIFT FROM THE LOW PASSING OVER THE REGION. WITH TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THROUGH THE WEAK. OFFSHORE FLOW REMAINS STRONGLY IN PLACE WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD PLUS WARMER THAN NORMAL 850 MB TEMPS. QUIET WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN.
127 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 DRY COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND WASHES OUT.
Temperatures will once again be near-to-below freezing, making it a frosty start to the day Thursday.
404 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING LIGHT SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA.
255 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH. THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR IS LEADING TO CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE AREA SO EXPECT TO SEE SUNSHINE TODAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES TURN TO THE SW WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO MODERATE. SO EXPECT TO SEE MOST AREAS TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S TODAY. ANTHR MSTLY SUNNY BUT COOLER DAY.
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE POSITION ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.
WESTERN HALF OF THE US WAS UNDER SPLIT FLOW WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER EASTERN ARIZONA. AND A FLAT RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OVER MONTANA. THE FLOW BACKS THURSDAY AND THIS ALLOWS SOME MOISTURE TO GET PULLED INTO THE EASTERN ZONES FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW.
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE DESERT SW THE LAST FEW DAYS BEGINS TO ACCELERATE NORTHEAST.
348 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A COLD FRONT INTO WEST TEXAS. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA.
145 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 700-550 MB LAYER WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND WOULD POINT TO COOLER HIGHS. A FEW MORE FRAGMENTS OF ENERGY TO PASS TROUGH THE STATE TODAY AND WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS STATIC STABILITY REMAINS LOW.
Conditions Thursday will be similar but with more upper-level cloud cover, keeping temperatures a degree or two cooler and limiting the potential for convection along the stalled, weakening boundary.