Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Otherwise, thru Sat evening, expect a dry period across the mid state region as high pressure influences from the upper midwest build into and move across the mid state region, and generally a quasi dry nwly flow pattern aloft prevails. Apex of sfc ridging influences will become most pronounced on Fri night with lows generally 20 to 25 degrees.
After a warm afternoon with just a few showers, we expect generally fair weather tonight, as any ascent associated with an approaching cold front will remain to our north.
Cold front has pushed thru the entire region, and the gusty north winds across E OK will gradually subside as the gradient weakens. Dry air in the low levels will keep cigs up in the VFR range. /Issued 258 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2017/ The cold front has clear the forecast area.
Have kept the trend of slightly warmer max temps in the Uinta and upper Gunnison basins today and overnight tonight.
/issued 300 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2017/ Surface ridging will continue to build into the forecast area today. Without significant cloud cover will run toward the warmer end of MOS range. Friday opens with a diffuse front waffling from NW-SE over the forecast area, before pressing farther SW Fri evening as cool surface ridging re-exerts more dominance. Some low clouds behind the boundary could expand this high temp range, but low level moistening is still progged to be a bigger factor beginning Fri night as a fetch of modified Gulf moisture arrives isentropically and breeds abundant stratus through early Sat morning.
Highs slightly cooler Friday with low 70s central to upper 40s mountains.
Cooler temperatures will be expected tonight behind the front.
A cold front stretches from deep South Texas to the East Texas Lake Region and eastward across CenLA to the Carolinas.
However, a weak cold front will move through KDHN and KABY Friday morning, which will keep IFR cigs there through 18 UTC. The 7 am regional surface analysis showed an area of high pressure centered over northeast FL, and a strong temperature gradient along the northeast Gulf coastal waters. There was a weak, positive-tilt trough over much of the Gulf Coast, and it appears that the interaction of this feature and the aforementioned thermal gradient to our south was producing some showers over the FL Panhandle coastal waters.
1047 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2017 A cold and dreary morning has occurred thus far across the Mid-South as gusty northerly winds continue behind the slow departing cold front. A weak low pressure center has developed along the front, as a result, a large area of rain has pushed into much of North Mississippi. /issued 318 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2017/ Current cold front has worked its way into central Mississippi leaving the Midsouth mostly cloudy with a zone of showers hugging the 850mb upper front along the TN/MS border. to the low 50s across the far south.
223 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2017 Early this afternoon, the cold front that passed through our area yesterday is approaching the Texas coast and extends westward through the Rio Grande Valley. This is occurring ahead of a deep closed low off the California/Oregon coast.
1244 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2017 Clear and cool conditions look to continue throughout the day with temperatures rising to the high single digits in the northern and western regions of the CWA, and low teens in the southeastern CWA where there is less snow cover.
/ISSUED 938 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2017/ Updated most forecast elements today to account for location of cold front now pushing across southeastern TX.
1006 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2017 High pressure building into the region resulting in a clear sky and a steady west-northwesterly wind. High pressure remains in control across eastern Montana and the Dakotas this morning. This will force the low level clouds/flurries over the west central into the south central farther south today, and will slowly diminish the winds as the pressure gradient decreases.
Clearing is expected to continue but cold air will linger today for little change in temperatures across the south where clouds are keeping readings warmer. Cold high moves off to the southeast tonight with ridge sliding across the Rockies. Warmer air spilling east of the divide will make slight inroads into eastern Montana on Friday but will be short lived with lee side low developing over Wyoming.
The much drier airmass and approaching high pressure make tonight's temperature forecast an interesting one. Short wave trough energy will also progress east out of Colorado as the night progresses. There is some dry air in the low levels to overcome, but not super-dry, so believe the combination of weak frontogenesis, weak CSI and decent moisture could result in light snow showers or flurries mainly near the NE/KS border. Any of this activity should weaken and end by late morning with highs again creeping up into the low/mid 30s with light winds.
/issued 1047 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2017/ A cold and dreary morning has occurred thus far across the Mid-South as gusty northerly winds continue behind the slow departing cold front. A weak low pressure center has developed along the front, as a result, a large area of rain has pushed into much of North Mississippi. /issued 318 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2017/ Current cold front has worked its way into central Mississippi leaving the Midsouth mostly cloudy with a zone of showers hugging the 850mb upper front along the TN/MS border. to the low 50s across the far south.
Today Through Friday Night The SFC cold front has moved south of the CWA early this morning. with some moisture lifting north over the cold front to the south. the chances for precip do shift south over time as the cold front continues to drift slowly south. and with the highest winds only over portions of the central into ERN portions of the CWA.
244 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2017 NW winds, preceding arrival of Canadian high pressure, brought colder temps to E Iowa/NW Illinois today. This Evening and Tonight: High pressure moving into the Plains and Upper Midwest setting up a seasonably cold night in the 10s most locations, with upper single digits in the counties along highway 20. And coupled with partly to mostly sunny skies, highs should be a few degrees warmer than today (Thursday).
As this upper level disturbance moves into the Mississippi Valley late Friday an area of high pressure at the surface will build across the Northern and Central Plains.
301 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2017 A cold front remains located from near Atlanta, Georgia to Natchez, Mississippi. Showers associated with a weak low pressure center that developed along the front continue to impact Northeast Mississippi. Highs will be similar to today with readings in the lower to mid 40s.
Northwest flow will remain in place meaning cooler temperatures across the region. If winds go calm could see temperatures cooler than currently forecast, especially across southwest Minnesota.
With less cloud cover across the area tonight, have cooled lows especially along the highway 14 corridor where decent radiational cooling will exist.
08Z water vapor imagery shows broad cyclonic over the northeast and Great Lakes with a closed upper low over the Hudson bay. A low amplitude ridge was noted over the intermountain west with another closed upper low off the coast of northern CA. At the surface a cold Canadian high pressure system continues to build south through the plains with the cold front pushing into east TX. Cold air advection through the day should limited afternoon highs to the lower and middle 30s. Have trended lows tonight slightly warmer with upper teens to around 20 degrees thinking increasing cloud cover should re-radiate IR energy back to the surface.
Strong Pacific disturbance off the Pacific NW coast has induced an inland ridge. This ridge will slide east but flatten as it moves into Montana Friday.
Moisture looks to remain quite sparse north of the low level ridge axis, which remains situated from northwest South Dakota into eastern Nebraska as the wave passes through the region. Temperatures will remain on the cool side Friday, but given lack of appreciable snow cover, have hedged toward the warmer guidance solutions with highs in the 20s most areas.
Even though a positively tilted upper trof drops through the region tonight, there is no moisture to work with to generate any snow, or cloud cover.
Otherwise similar, though warmer, quiet weather is anticipated.
354 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2017 The cold front that crossed the Middle Atlantic region this afternoon will move offshore tonight.
The rest of the winter headlines for tonight are still in effect, but they are for the high elevations and are not going to impact any of the passes, at least in Northern Cal, so suspect these will get canceled as well, but we'll take a closer look at this and any changes will be addressed in the afternoon forecast. Throughout the forecast area, partial terrain obscurations are expected today, mainly on the higher peaks of the Marbles, Siskiyous, Cascades, and East Side.
Northerly flow in response to the high pressure system will allow for weak CAA into the region.
1116 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2017 Clouds will be on the increase to end this week as a high pressure systems builds to the Northeast and East of the region. The high pressure that will be in MO and parts of AR will be relatively slow to move out as a new but rather weak weather system will come off the Rockies.
Weak 1000-850 mb cold advection will continue into Friday keeping temps on the cooler side of average with highs today in the teens to low 20s and lows once again tonight in the single digits above and below zero. Temps on Friday will likely be a few degrees warmer than today as 925 mb temps slowly warm.
Canadian high pressure continues to build into the region early this morning with a west-northwest flow aloft. Some showers were occurring to our south along the cold front. For Friday and Friday night, the center of high pressure will be slightly to our east, but will mainly be across the CWA with highs again only reaching the 30s and lows from the teens in the east to the mid 20s west, which should start to see some southerly winds return late Friday night.
In spite of mostly sunny conditions today, temperatures will only warm into the 20s, and with a continued breezy northwest wind, wind chill readings will likely remain in the low to middle teens.
A potential for some showers pushing ashore continues over the next several days as high pressure keeps a generally easterly flow across the area.
However, as warmer air aloft shifts across the area late Friday and Friday night. some of the snow may change to light freezing rain or ice pellets (Orofino, Grangeville, Missoula, Bitterroot valley).
Otherwise, high pressure will continue to build into the region from the west today. Friday and Friday night: Northwest flow aloft and Canadian high pressure will bring cold temperatures to the area.
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather across the area Friday night as the upper level pattern becomes more zonal/northwest flow for the weekend.
/18Z TAFS/ Post frontal air is turning out to be colder and denser than advertised and is leading to limited mixing in the low levels and a hesitation in the mixing out of mvfr cigs. A cooler airmass will spread across the area as northerly winds dominate with highs near climate normals with lower 60s over the Hill Country and mid 60s along the I-35 corridor. Clouds return tonight across most areas as a shallow cooler airmass remains near the surface and isentropic upglide takes control above that layer. Cooler temps are also expected with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
Flow aloft will remain zonal progressive with weak ridge aloft moving across the Rockies tomorrow followed by also weak short waves the remainder of the period. Gradients aloft slowly strengthen which in turn contributes to deeper lee cyclone generation to the northeast.
218 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2017 Back to reality today behind a strong cold front that moved through overnight.
Radar/web cams/obs suggest fairly dense fog and occasional freezing drizzle/flurries mainly across Pueblo/El Paso/Ern Fremont counties, with lowest vis and most significant precip from Colorado Springs northward to the Palmer Divide. Lesser threat of freezing/frozen precip across the plains as t/td spreads remain just wide enough to keep lower layers from saturating, limiting the threat of dense fog and light precip. Over the mountains and interior valleys, a few snow showers will develop over the high terrain north of Monarch Pass in the afternoon as weak energy brushes by to the north, though snowfall amounts will be light. Max temps over the higher terrain will be similar to yesterday most locations.
/issued 648 AM EST Thu Feb 2 2017/ High pressure over the region will keep a light and variable wind through the morning hours. The high does weaken tomorrow, as a cold front pushes into north Florida, and possibly Central Florida.
A few light showers are possible Friday through Friday night as a trough moves by to the north, skimming Southern California.
At mid morning, a cold front was located south of Tn, with cool, dry high pressure moving in from the northwest. Dry high pressure will approach from the northwest, resulting in north surface winds near 10kt.
200 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2017 Cooler than average temperatures will carry into the weekend.
1237 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2017 High pressure will slowly build into the region through the end of the week. Ridging will continue to work into the area through the period.
337 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2017 With dry high pressure over the upper midwest tonight and Friday should see very little in the way of clouds. There is an upper level trough that will be moving through the Arrowhead this evening and across northern WI overnight, but with such a dry air column, not expecting any precipitation nor much in the way of clouds. High pressure will bring quiet weather to the Northland Friday night, but the next round of precipitation will bring increasing clouds as the night wears on.
Thereafter, the surge of moisture southward should result in predominantly MVFR ceilings through around 1500 UTC Friday when drier surface air erodes the low cloud deck. /ISSUED 359 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2017/ As of 3 AM, a cold front had moved through all but the southeastern-most part of the forecast area, extending southeast of a Quitman to Hearne to San Antonio line. Moisture is expected to wrap around a low pressure system over East Texas today. As is indicated by the high resolution models, this should result in an increase in cloud cover and some drizzle/sprinkles developing later this morning into the afternoon across the northeastern half of the region. Overnight lows will range from the lower 30s across the northwest to the mid 40s across the southeast.
This coincides with a cold front continuing to seep slowly southward into Toledo Bend Country and across central Louisiana. The forecast remains on track with cooler conditions today through the weekend.
High pressure sliding in from the north through this time will keep temperatures seasonably cool with highs in the upper 20s/lower 30s and low in the upper teens/lower 20s.
The h5 pattern has closed low pressure centered over Hudson Bay with a broad trough into the northern third of the U. and ridging over parts of the western U.
An upper level trough extending from northern Montana into southern Saskatchewan will drop southeast today and tonight. this will provide some weak upper level divergence near and ahead of the upper level trough tonight.
High pressure building east into the Northern Plains, resulting in a clear sky and a steady west-northwest sfc wind. Increasing clouds for Friday with return flow developing and as upper level moisture streams through a flat ridge over the Rockies.
Upstream RAOB from KMPX was quite dry aside from some moisture in the low levels. Upstream observations show a dry atmospheric profile aside from some limited moisture in the low levels. The brisk winds are occurring due to a modest pressure gradient between High pressure over the Great Plains and low pressure over Hudson Bay Canada and James Bay Canada. The mid levels are dry, but there is some moisture in the low levels with scattered to brief broken more diurnal type stratocumulus expected.
Wednesday will bring a little more sunshine than today, and warmer temperatures.
The aforementioned upper level low drifts into the Central Plains on Wednesday. Strongest forcing, in the way of midlevel isentropic lift and frontogenesis will be located across our southeast, so have highest pops through the lower MO River Valley/northwestern IA/and portions of our lower MN zones. With the clouds and shower it will be generally cooler on Wednesday, with highs in the upper 40s over northwestern IA to the mid 50s through the Chamberlain to Huron corridor.
Temperatures will be warmer with highs reaching the 60s most locations.
335 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017 The northland will be under the influence of high pressure at the surface and aloft while a deep long wave trough affects the southern portion of MN and WI. Moisture streaming northward ahead of this low will provide more clouds to the northland which will in cooler temperatures.
VFR conditions are expected elsewhere until a warm front, currently over southern Arkansas,lifts north.
346 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 Low pressure will pass to our south tonight. Behind this system, a northwesterly flow will introduce cooler and drier air into the region for the second half of the work week.
Precipitation chances continue tomorrow as the upper low slowly moves over the area.
258 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 A cold front will cross the area tonight.
300 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017 19z/2pm surface analysis shows ridge of high pressure extending from Hudson Bay southward into the Mississippi River Valley. Despite the presence of prevailing high pressure, boundary layer moisture remains trapped beneath a subsidence inversion. Forecast soundings show the low-level moisture remaining in place tonight, so am expecting cloudy skies to continue through Wednesday morning. As the high shifts off to the east and the New Mexico low begins lifting to the northeast, increasing warm advection will lead to the development of scattered light showers across the western half of the KILX CWA on Wednesday. The upper level trough over the Southwest U. today will be over the central Plains by Wednesday evening with a low level jet strengthening in the lower Mississippi region helping to enhance severe thunderstorms ahead the cold front.
Surface analysis this morning shows a weak cold front pushing into far NW AL at the moment.
631 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 Weak low pressure will cross the area this evening.
With less cloud cover, temperatures will be cooler than last night, around 50 in most locations and in the mid to upper 40s in the Smokies. Cooler temperatures combined with residual boundary layer moisture from the rain should aid in fog formation tonight and areas of fog are possible across the area tomorrow morning. After sunrise, a ridge will build overhead throughout the day and keep skies mostly sunny. A ridge through the mid and upper levels will be over our area to start the period, while at the surface, low pressure will be tracking slowly east- northeast from the southern Plains to the Ozarks.
250 PM MDT Tue Mar 28 2017 Widespread rain continues for areas east of the Laramie Range as the midlevel vort max approaches from the south, especially for areas along the sfc boundary situated roughly along the WY/NE border and the Cheyenne Ridge. Road condition reports up at the I-80 Summit are mainly of slushy but slick roads early this afternoon, and air temperatures are right around freezing. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the low 30s roughly above 4500ft across the plains, so rain should change to snow at these locations with little to no accumulation anticipated. For areas near Cheyenne proper and along and west of the Laramie Range, roads could get pretty icy tonight as temperatures drop below freezing and wet roads freeze over.
236 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 An area of low pressure will move along the Mason-Dixon line through tonight.
202 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 A cold front will move through the area tonight and stall near the CSRA.
As a deep upper level low approaches the region, a dryline is expected to push into the western CWA tonight. Kept the higher pops across the northern CWA where the cap is weaker and upper dynamics are better. The CAPE is mod to strong and CIN/cap decreases across the eastern CWA coincident with the dryline bdry and an embedded short wave tracking around the SE periphery of the low. Wed night, the upper low will move east across TX and push a weak cold front through the CWA. The cold front will bring slightly cooler temps to the area Wed night.
150 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 Aviation One area of low pressure will track up the Ohio Valley today. An area of high pressure in the upper plains will track east tonight and Wednesday scattering the clouds out.
302 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017 The slow moving upper level low will move out of New Mexico tonight and into the Southern Plains tomorrow.
342 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017 A strong closed southern stream trough navigates the Central/Southern Plains over the next 24 hours.
206 PM PDT Tue Mar 28 2017 Weakening offshore flow and ridging aloft will bring a warming trend through Wednesday.
In fact, the destabilization and re-moistening of the lower trop looks to be on similar track as well, and the wind fields aloft too look similar. Adjusted highs/lows to collaborate with slightly warmer readings with our eastern neighbors (LMK), and slightly cooler west (SGF/LSX), on a couple time periods. With the latest deterministic runs of the 12z Tuesday GFS and the 00z Tuesday (12z coming in at this time) ECMWF, both guidance models take the current closed low south of the Four Corner's region in the desert Southwest U.
There appears to be a cold bias in the guidance and the warmer temperatures tonight would likely preclude any kind of mix of rain and snow across Wrn Neb tonight.
High pressure will quickly begin to build over the area Wednesday as the storm system spills out into the Great Plains.
With the cloud cover and flow off the lake have trended cooler, more towards 3 hourly MOS and Superblend, with the NAM mos looking better towards the lake.
Currently, we are beginning to see the low clouds erode across the Rio Grande plains. For the early evening hours, the Pacific cold front will overtake the dryline across west central Texas, including the Edwards Plateau.
325 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017 Current WV and VIS imagery show and upper low digging into the Southern Rockies over New Mexico. As this low pulls out of the region it will undergo further cyclogenesis over the Southern Plains into the Central Plains overnight tonight. With cloud cover only increasing, expect that temps only dip into the low to mid 40s over the area. As broad scale lift and the warm front approach from the south, expect showers and rain to lift into the area from the southwest. From here, the upper low will slowly pin-wheel through the area into the Mid and Southern MS Valley regions with rain wrapping around behind the low itself creating a band of low to mid level frontogenetical response in the deformation zone.
1248 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017 Low stratus was in place over the Ozarks this morning as an upper level ridge moves over the Ozarks. The ridge will bring a dry day to the area with temperatures rising into the middle 60s for most of the region with near 70 degrees in extreme southwestern parts of the area. Despite the ridge over the area, cloud cover will be stubborn with only a few peeks of sun expected. The ridge will begin to shift east this evening and overnight as a strong storms system moves out of the four corners region and takes a similar track as this past weekends system.
427 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 High pressure will build in Wednesday providing dry weather.
401 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 A cold front will move through the north country overnight with a chance of rain or snow showers. There will be a slight chance for rain and snow showers on Wednesday, mainly over the high elevations of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains.