Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The low stratus and dense fog continues to linger over metro Baton Rouge and parts of the River Parishes and Northshore this morning, but the fog and stratus is expected to clear over the next couple of hours as drier air begins to mix into the boundary layer. Additionally, based on the 12z sounding and water vapor imagery analysis, the highest threat of convective development will be focused over the southern and eastern third of the forecast area including all of coastal Mississippi, coastal Louisiana and the offshore waters through the early afternoon hours.
730 AM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021 High pressure will keep the area dry through the next couple of days with temperatures continuing to warm. By Friday another cold front sweeps through the Carolinas which brings a slight chance of showers.
857 AM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021 Showers and thunderstorms return this afternoon and evening with a cold front. Sfc and coupled upper low pressure will sweep across the Great Lakes toward northern New England through tonight, with the associated cold front moving through the Upper Ohio River Valley this afternoon and evening. A strengthening upper jet as the upper low pivots from a positive to neutral tilt will further support the front in developing showers and thunderstorms.
Forecast Summary: Near or below normal temperatures are still expected through the weekend, with freezing temperatures and areas of frost expected tonight and perhaps Friday night.
700 AM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021 Notably cooler today with nearly steady temperatures.
Dry weather will likely follow the front for the weekend with some cooler temperatures. This high has held PWs down below an inch, but that will be temporary as deeper southwesterly flow is forecast to advect higher PWs into the region. A cold front pushes through The Midlands and CSRA on Friday. High pressure builds into the Southeast U.
709 AM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021 Showers and thunderstorms return this afternoon and evening with a cold front. Sfc and coupled upper low pressure is centered over Wisconsin this morning, beginning to push across the Great Lakes as an associated cold front trails across the Midwest. The Upper Ohio Valley remains in the warm sector, with a warm frontal boundary analyzed well to the north across southern Ontario. Instability continues to be the limiting factor for more than an isolated strong to severe storm threat, though sfc heating may be aided a bit by the general lack of showers through the morning and early afternoon hours in advance of the cold front.
Weak ridging remains over the area today with light winds and as the fog burns off mid morning expect skies to be partly cloudy with plenty of sunshine and allowing temperatures to warm into the mid 80s to around 90 - about 10 degrees warmer than normal. Temperatures will again fall into the lower 70s this evening and anticipate another round of fog over the area.
The post-cold frontal airmass will keep temperatures down near normal, with highs in the 70s across Oklahoma and western north Texas.
Overall, the lower levels will be remain dry so no precip will occur. On Friday, Upper level troughs of low pressure will be over the Eastern and Western portions of the U. with a ridge of high pressure over the Rocky Mountain Region.
Heading into the afternoon, a cold frontal boundary will encroach upon the area from the northwest. The greatest chance for tstms and showers will remain E of I-55, but will most likely diminish by the early evening hours as a cold front makes its way SE through the region. /AJ/ Flow aloft will gradually become more quasi-zonal across the region through the course of the upcoming weekend, as troughing exits and ridging builds in from the west. High pressure at the surface will steadily build east through the forecast area during this time.
After a cold front moved through yesterday, high temperatures struggle to reach the 60s across much of the region. Gusty winds are expected to linger through the morning hours gradually decreasing during the afternoon as a trough moves out of the area. Slight ridging behind the trough clears skies out this afternoon and Friday. Southerly flow returns thanks to a high pressure skidding along the Gulf coast.
1042 AM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021 Over the past 24 hours, the lower-levels have moistened up considerably. High pressure centered off the southeast coast is currently supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east breezes across the Florida Keys coastal waters. With the increase in moisture, dewpoints have risen into the lower 70s, so our brief fall experience looks to have come to an end. As the aforementioned high pressure continues to shift east, winds will take on a more easterly direction which will help shuttle in more moisture. From synopsis, high pressure system off the southeastern United States will move further out into the atlantic over the next couple of days.
High temperatures will be several degrees warmer today thanks to the increased sunshine and modest WAA developing at H85. This warmer air will not mix to the surface until boundary layer mixing ensues during the day Friday. Then Friday, as the mixing increases, temperatures will warm quickly as the warmer air aloft descends to the surface. A series of troughs will cross the country within a progressive upper level flow.
Southwest flow aloft will keep warmer temperatures around Thursday. A departing ridge will be replaced by a trough later in this afternoon into Friday. On Friday, another mild day is expected with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s across Humboldt county with slightly warmer condtions throughout the rest of the region.
The precipitation associated with the cold front has shifted southeast of our forecast area, but wrap-around type low level cloudiness on the backside of the low pressure system will advect south-southeastward into much of our forecast area today. This cloud cover, along with gusty northwest winds and cooler temperatures will make it seem much more like a Fall day, especially compared to the unseasonably warm conditions yesterday. GKS Will see the coolest low temperatures Friday night across northeast MO and west central IL just behind the cold front sagging southward into the area.
Readings should continue to slowly warm into the low 40s by this afternoon. Temperatures range from the low to upper 20s across much of our CWA, with temps right at 30 in our far east where ti too longer for mid level clouds to clear. Lingering high clouds are having little impact on radiational cooling and temperatures are in the low to mid 20s across our northwest and still falling out of the 30s further south as lower clouds clear. Relatively quiet today with less wind and cooler highs in the 40s as northerly flow maintains the cold air mass aloft. The clouds associated with this wave may limit radiational cooling and where it tracks lows may hold just below freezing rather than the 20s which are still likely where it remains clear.
High pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain east to southeast winds around 10 knots or less with slight seas over the Gulf waters the remainder of today with a weaker pressure pattern supporting an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast during the afternoon.
337 AM MDT Thu Oct 21 2021 Ridging surface and aloft continues to dominate the weather across SE WY and the Nebraska Panhandle this morning. Milder weather ahead as we begin transitioning into the early weekend, as the ridge of high pressure remains in place across the western CONUS, effectively cutting off any significant weather into the area. Should see mostly clear skies with above normal high temperatures Friday in the upper 60s east of I-25, and slightly cooler off to the west.
505 AM MDT Thu Oct 21 2021 Ridging surface and aloft continues to dominate the weather across SE WY and the Nebraska Panhandle this morning. Milder weather ahead as we begin transitioning into the early weekend, as the ridge of high pressure remains in place across the western CONUS, effectively cutting off any significant weather into the area. Should see mostly clear skies with above normal high temperatures Friday in the upper 60s east of I-25, and slightly cooler off to the west.
Quiet weather will continue across the central plains as high pressure prevails across the region. The lowest readings are expected along the Arkansas River basin. For tomorrow, a light southerly wind is expected as high pressure shifts off to the east. Normal highs are about 10 degrees cooler.
139 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021 Notably cooler today with nearly steady temperatures.
It remains chilly on Friday with highs only into the lower to middle 50s.
Ridging will develop over the central Rockies on Friday. As the ridge axis passes east into the high plains on Friday night, faster southwest flow aloft will move in from the west.
Tonight may be the coldest night if the clouds keep to the north with lows getting down into the low 20s giving us a hard killing freeze. There is an area of stratus north of the border that is trying to creep south as it rotates around a large area of low pressure south of Hudson Bay, but daytime heating has helped mix the layer some. The weekend should be fairly nice as high pressure builds overhead. High pressure builds for the weekend.
311 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021 Another cold front will sag south across Illinois this evening and overnight bringing patchy drizzle to central Illinois.
248 PM MDT Thu Oct 21 2021 Quiet autumn weather is expected through the end of the work week, as a ridge of high pressure moves across the Intermountain West. Mostly clear skies continue this evening and overnight, and given the higher than usual geopotential heights (signifying a warm air mass), temperatures will be relatively mild despite clear skies. Most lower elevations east of the Divide stay above freezing. Friday is forecast to have very similar conditions to today, with temperatures two to three degrees warmer. The ridge aloft will begin to move east of the region, allowing an increase in high clouds moving in from the southwest.
This upper level ridge will be the dominant feature over the next 36 hours, bringing us dry weather and above normal temperatures. Ridge axis will shift east as Pacific wave lifts into western MT Friday night.
The wave will move eastward across the area today, and heights will begin to rebound from ridge to our west. Otherwise, expect high pressure to build into the region and dominate over the area through Friday.
The current ridge does break down during the afternoon Fri, and by late Fri night the threat of precipitation arrives in the extreme western edge of the forecast area.
239 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021 High clouds are a bit slower and thinner than expected today but northwest winds and cool high pressure were still keeping temps in the mid 50s to near 60 this afternoon.
352 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021 Showers and a few thunderstorms will accompany a cold front across the region this evening. No changes were needed for the early eve update as low pressure is on track to dig across the Great Lakes and drag a cold front acrs the Upr OH this eve.
Clouds will ride along a building upper ridge today as the air mass continues to warm. Increasing cloud cover today ahead of the next trough for Friday.
Otherwise, temperatures are expected to be a little bit warmer with lows tonight mainly ranging from mid 40s to mid 50s and highs on Friday ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s.
A broken band of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected along and just ahead of the frontal boundary with the highest rain chances along and north of I-20 and east of I-55. Dew points will range from the low 40s over northern portions of the area to low 60s over the far south where the front ultimately stalls. Morning lows are forecast to drop into the low 50s north to low 60s south. In fact, westerly 850mb flow in the base of the mean trough will be oriented parallel to the thermal gradient with no noticeable change in low-level temperatures from today.
1150 AM MDT Thu Oct 21 2021 NW flow prevails in the upper levels with ridging aloft this morning. Slightly cooler highs may result if this cloud deck persists. Overall, the lower levels will be remain dry so no precip will occur. On Friday, Upper level troughs of low pressure will be over the Eastern and Western portions of the U. with a ridge of high pressure over the Rocky Mountain Region.
136 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021 A cold front is slowly working its way across Middle Tennessee, and a well-defined line of showers has formed along the boundary and is beginning to increase in coverage and intensity, which is what the HRRR has been suggesting. The retreating cold front will be replaced by high pressure and cooler, drier air, but only for a couple of days.
As the upper low moves east into the Great Lakes region, an upper level ridge builds over the Intermountain West, slowly moving east. Some upper level clouds may build tonight as moisture advection at upper levels occurs ahead of the ridge. Meanwhile, high pressure builds at the surface. A backdoor cold front will move in from the northeast into Nebraska on Friday night.
252 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021 We will see some lingering clouds this afternoon to early evening associated with the low that provided yesterday's rain. With high pressure moving in now the forecast is trending towards clear sky and light winds with little chance for any precipitation. With both overnights expected to have temperatures fall near to below freezing.
Today Through Friday Night The most prominent weather feature in the near term is a cold front passing through the region early this morning. High pressure will build over the area from the Plains on Friday, and will bring tranquil conditions. The high will make a hasty retreat to the east Friday night.
1042 AM MDT Thu Oct 21 2021 NW flow prevails in the upper levels with ridging aloft this morning. Slightly cooler highs may result if this cloud deck persists. Overall, the lower levels will be remain dry so no precip will occur. On Friday, Upper level troughs of low pressure will be over the Eastern and Western portions of the U. with a ridge of high pressure over the Rocky Mountain Region.
347 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021 Stratus has been slow to clear today, lingering across far southeastern SD, southwestern MN, and points southeastward, with high pressure sliding in. Temperatures have warmed into the 40s to lower 50s, leading to a cooler fall day with northwesterly winds around 10 mph. Expect temperatures to fall into lower 30s, which is slightly cooler than the previous forecast.
Highs will climb into the low to middle 80s for Friday.
The stratus/fog will scatter/lift Friday afternoon, which in combination with modest southerly breezes, will allow highs to reach the lower to middle 80s for most locations. Low-amplitude ridging will continue to shift eastward throughout the weekend as an expansive, positively-tilted trough pivots into the western U.
Cool and quiet day with some high clouds and temps finally reaching the low 40s in most places this afternoon. Not much in the way of surface features expected overnight with high pressure remaining over the area. Mid and high level moisture is plentiful, but the low levels less so and will continue to be undercut by dry northeasterly winds. Temps should be a degree or so warmer than today, but still below seasonal averages.
247 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021 A low pressure system to the southeast of the area brought light rain and drizzle to the area this morning. Northerly cold air advection will decrease 850mb temperatures to below freezing tonight. That in addition to the scattering of clouds will drop temperatures to the high 20s and low 30s overnight. Chilly broad cyclonic flow persists aloft through the end of the week as a deep upper low wobbles over the southern James Bay area.
High pressure over the Atlantic will maintain an east-southeast wind flow over the forecast area through Friday.
1239 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021 Showers and thunderstorms return this afternoon and evening with a cold front. Sfc and coupled upper low pressure will sweep across the Great Lakes toward northern New England through tonight, with the associated cold front moving through the Upper Ohio River Valley this afternoon and evening. A strengthening upper jet as the upper low pivots from a positive to neutral tilt will further support the front in developing showers and thunderstorms.
114 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021 For the 21/18Z TAF period, VFR conditions have returned at all TAF sites this afternoon as a healthy cu field continues to lift above 3Kft along and ahead of a weak cold front. For the rest of today, expect a weak cold front to continue its southward push into the region as it moves south of I-20 this afternoon.
High pressure ridge will move east of the region through Tonight, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Tonight and Friday will be warmer than normal. Cooler air will advect in for Friday night following the front, with lows ranging from the middle 50s across inland SE GA, to the middle 60s along the coast.
315 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021 A cold front will exit the region this evening allowing much cooler air to filter in to close the work week.
308 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021 Low pressure will track north of Pennsylvania through tonight, dragging a cold front through the area. This will result in showers and a few thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening, followed by cooler conditions this weekend.
A narrow high pressure ridge will move into the area tonight, which will help keep the area mostly clear as winds only slightly decrease, keeping lows mostly in the 30s. The ridge will start to exit the area on Friday as a deepening low pressure trough moves on to the Pacific coast. The Pacific trough will drive a change in the weather pattern across the area through this period.
335 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021 Cold front currently stretching from the central Great Lakes down through the Lower Mississippi River Valley. High pressure will build in behind the front later on Friday. Not much cooler air behind the front.
1125 AM MDT Thu Oct 21 2021 Ridging surface and aloft continues to dominate the weather across SE WY and the Nebraska Panhandle this morning. Milder weather ahead as we begin transitioning into the early weekend, as the ridge of high pressure remains in place across the western CONUS, effectively cutting off any significant weather into the area. Should see mostly clear skies with above normal high temperatures Friday in the upper 60s east of I-25, and slightly cooler off to the west.
313 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021 Latest surface analysis places a cold front pushing towards the Tennessee River. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 40s with high temperatures tomorrow warming into the low 70s. By the weekend a warm front will lift northeast from Texas through the Mid-South.
Marine observation platforms are recording winds ranging from 13 to 20 knots, with the highest winds being in the western waters. High pressure centered in the western Atlantic will continue to shift eastward, which will cause the gradient to relax across the area tonight.
849 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021 Showers will persist for the next couple of days as upper low pressure encroaches over the region. The overall forecast trend remains on track as low pressure continues to across the Great Lakes - dragging a cold front acrs the Upr OH this eve.
Ridging and southwest flow aloft will keep the warmer temperatures around tomorrow afternoon.
744 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021 Low pressure will track north of Pennsylvania through tonight, dragging a cold front through the area. This will result in showers and a few thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening, followed by cooler conditions this weekend.
A cold front is slowly working its way across Middle Tennessee, and a well-defined line of showers has formed along the boundary and is beginning to increase in coverage and intensity, which is what the HRRR has been suggesting. The retreating cold front will be replaced by high pressure and cooler, drier air, but only for a couple of days.
841 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021 Another cold front will sag south across Illinois this evening and overnight bringing patchy drizzle to central Illinois.
843 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021 The cold front has cleared the Mid-South and precipitation has shifted well south and east of the CWA. /issued 313 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021/ Latest surface analysis places a cold front pushing towards the Tennessee River. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 40s with high temperatures tomorrow warming into the low 70s. By the weekend a warm front will lift northeast from Texas through the Mid-South.
625 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021 Another cold front will sag south across Illinois this evening and overnight bringing patchy drizzle to central Illinois.
Satellite and Nighttime Microphysics show a swath of mid- level and upper-level clouds moving east over the Lower Keys, making their way to the Middle and Upper Keys as the night progresses. High pressure centered over the western Atlantic is continuing to move east resulting in winds decreasing to near 15 knots over our eastern marine waters, while the western waters still remain slightly elevated with our marine platforms at Smith Shoal Light and Sand Key still showing sustained winds of 15 to 20 knots. From synopsis, a high pressure system over the western Atlantic will continue east into the central Atlantic for the next several, resulting in a continual decrease of winds tonight.
547 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021 Stratus has been slow to clear today, lingering across far southeastern SD, southwestern MN, and points southeastward, with high pressure sliding in. Temperatures have warmed into the 40s to lower 50s, leading to a cooler fall day with northwesterly winds around 10 mph. Expect temperatures to fall into lower 30s, which is slightly cooler than the previous forecast.
A weather system moving ashore has spread BKN- OVC clouds at 7K-15K over the area this afternoon ahead of a cold front.
In addition, a N-S oriented trough axis over the WRN Gulf of Mexico is predicted to enter the coast Friday.
Ludwig 545 PM MDT Thu Oct 21 2021 (22/00Z TAF period) VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours as an upper level ridge moves overhead. A narrow high pressure ridge will move into the area tonight, which will help keep the area mostly clear as winds only slightly decrease, keeping lows mostly in the 30s. The ridge will start to exit the area on Friday as a deepening low pressure trough moves on to the Pacific coast. The Pacific trough will drive a change in the weather pattern across the area through this period.
High clouds are a bit slower and thinner than expected today but northwest winds and cool high pressure were still keeping temps in the mid 50s to near 60 this afternoon.
440 PM MDT Thu Oct 21 2021 Quiet autumn weather is expected through the end of the work week, as a ridge of high pressure moves across the Intermountain West. Mostly clear skies continue this evening and overnight, and given the higher than usual geopotential heights (signifying a warm air mass), temperatures will be relatively mild despite clear skies. Most lower elevations east of the Divide stay above freezing. Friday is forecast to have very similar conditions to today, with temperatures two to three degrees warmer. The ridge aloft will begin to move east of the region, allowing an increase in high clouds moving in from the southwest.
Increasing cloud cover tonight and light rain showers ahead of a cold front that will cross southeastern OR Friday morning and southwestern ID Friday afternoon. Surface winds: mainly southeast to southwest 5-15 kts, increasing to 10-25 kts Friday afternoon with gusts up to 35-40 kts as a cold front crosses the region.
505 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021 A low pressure system to the southeast of the area brought light rain and drizzle to the area this morning. Northerly cold air advection will decrease 850mb temperatures to below freezing tonight. That in addition to the scattering of clouds will drop temperatures to the high 20s and low 30s overnight. Chilly broad cyclonic flow persists aloft through the end of the week as a deep upper low wobbles over the southern James Bay area.