Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
PLENTY OF CAPE SHOULD BE REALIZED AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S THIS AFTERNOON AND DEW POINT REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S. AT THIS TIME, THE FRONT STILL LIES NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER, BUT LOOK FOR IT TO DIVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND STALL OUT OVERNIGHT BEFORE BEING PICKED UP AS A WARM FRONT BY A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
AS THE FLAT UPPER RIDGE KEEPS CONVECTION SUPPRESSED IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. THE BIG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HELPING TO SPAWN TODAYS EXPECTED SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IN THE PLAINS STATES WILL PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
616 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS DEEP WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WITH A RESIDUAL VORT LOBE BEING SHEARED OUT ACROSS ND. WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
Water vapor imagery shows the center of a mid level low pressure system currently moving east over the Utah/Colorado border early this morning. At the surface, low pressure continues to strengthen over eastern Colorado with a warm front extending east from the low. As this occurs, warm front will lift to the north of I-70 while the dryline moves into south central Kansas. A Pacific cold front is expected to move out into southwest Kansas to near the Highway 283 corridor this afternoon. As the upper low continues to move east overnight, there will be at least a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms across portions of west central and southwest Kansas later tonight into Wednesday morning associated with the mid level deformation zone.
The high- resolution HRRR/RAP have been showing this for hours and have relatively good trends with current conditions. NW will follow in its wake Thu-Fri as a ridge and subtropical high develops over the Wrn USA. As the low heads toward the upr Midwest. A stronger Canadian cold front will drop to the US border by this time as well. The approach of this low should result in a warm front passing E thru the fcst area Fri. Tue will turn cooler with the rest of the week averaging closer to normal. A few brief hit-or- miss shwrs still look probable with the upr trof Wed. The guidance keeps the low clouds/visibilities through at least mid-morning and have followed that trend as well.
420 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016 An upper ridge will slowly move east across the Southern Plains and into the Southeastern U.
The high temperatures and very low humidiityexpected behind a dryline in northwest Oklahoma will increase fire weather conditions.
355 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016 An unseasonably strong upper level ridge of high pressure will build over the Mid South today and persist through mid week.
Along with the cold front, instability will be present to possibly result in thunder Monday afternoon.
340 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016 High pressure over southern New England will shift southward Monday and remain to our south through midweek.
On Monday, flat ridging aloft will push across the Ohio Valley as an extension of strong high pressure aloft over TX.
Axis of the weak upper trough over the region this morning will shift east.
332 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016 Mild conditions are occurring across the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern Kansas early this morning as a warmer air mass continues to spread into the area. Temperatures are currently in the middle 60s to the lower 70s early this morning, which are close to normal highs for this time of year across the area. 850mb temperatures will warm into the upper teens C this afternoon and then into the lower 20s C on Monday.
A cold front is currently moving through the area, stretching from Central Washington down into Southeast Oregon.
The quiet continues for the next 24 hours as hot and dry to very dry October ridge locks in place across South Texas.
129 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016 Weak upper level trough will continue to weaken and drift south of the area tonight.
With an 850-mb trof shearing as it pushes E into Central KS to induce flow just off the deck to become Swly & greatly increase the setup would be ideal for temperatures to really take off. Record highs are once again very possible in all areas as strong Swly lower-deck flow continues to keep a well-defined thermal ridge positioned from the Panhandles & Wrn KS thru Central & SC KS. This would push a cold front SE that is still scheduled to arrive Central KS Mon Evening then SE KS early Tue morning. The rain should end Wed Night as fairly strong high pressure pushes E/se across the Nrn Plains.
Evening update: the larger swath of precipitation is shifting east as the occluded front moves in and the upper trough starts in. The southwest flow and upper trough, along with embedded instability, will keep some shower threat alive through the night and perhaps some isolated thunderstorms. Winds should begin to pic up in the next hour or three as the upper trough is coming in and that low level wind turns southwesterly.
Colder temperatures begin moving into the area as 700mb temperatures fall below freezing across the CWA.
342 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016 Upper level low center over northwest Georgia was keeping skies partly to mostly cloudy over our eastern counties early this morning, while western counties were mostly clear.
305 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016 06Z surface data has a cold front from central Lake Superior into northwest Kansas. The showers and isolated thunderstorms will slowly end west of the Mississippi before sunrise as the cold front starts moving into the area. The cold front will stall out across the area during the morning and then dissipate during the afternoon. As forcing increases during the evening, isolated showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will develop north of highway 30 near a developing warm front. The warm front will then slowly move north after midnight and confine any rain to the highway 20 corridor. bumped temps and wind up and dropped dew points a bit anticipating we will mix out the very warm temps at 925/850 mb ahead of the cold front progged to move into Iowa during the day.
Mid- to upper-level ridging along with +1 to 2 standard deviations above normal H925 temps over south-central Texas will lead to near record high temperatures this afternoon. A near repeat pattern will occur on Monday with well-above normal temperatures continuing as the ridge and warm low-levels remain intact.
Upper low over the forecast area this morning weakens and drops south and east of the area through the day today and into tonight with upper-level ridging building into the region Monday.
247 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016 A ridge of high pressure extending from southern Virginia to off the Mid Atlantic Coast will drift slowly to the south today and Monday. A weak cold front will move to near the New York.
The swly LLJ and vorticity maximum will move east today with a weak ridge of high pressure to follow. The front will move back north as a warm front tonight as an upper wave moves from the nrn Great Plains to the Lake Superior region.
This will result in strong winds over the ridge lines and mountain tops today reaching 20 to 30 mph sustained with gusts to 65 mph.
Warm and mainly dry weather is expected for the beginning of the work week under high pressure.
A sharp gradient has set up along the Highway 20 corridor and not likely expand much northward as a weak boundary has set up over northern Iowa. Regardless, expanded the Dense Fog Advisory to include the Highway 20 corridor and extended it until 14z. Even with the low stratus hanging around for much of the day, temperatures should have no trouble rising well into the 70s to around 80 today with enough WAA and the warm start this morning.
421 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016 (Today and Tonight) With an upper level high shifting slowly east over Texas, well-above normal temperatures will continue across our area today and tonight. With the 850mb thermal ridge expanding a bit farther east into our area, highs today are expected to be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday.
Strong high pressure will continue across the Carolinas and southeast U. A cold front will move into the Great lakes late tonight and Sunday as an upper disturbance moves across the great lakes. This front will move back to the north as a strong upper ridge builds across our region.
325 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016 The unseasonably warm weather will continue for at least another 2-3 days as mid-level ridging and southwesterly low-level flow prevails.
632 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016 A ridge of high pressure extending from southern Virginia to off the Mid Atlantic Coast will drift slowly to the south today and Monday. A weak cold front will move to near the New York.
The high- resolution HRRR/RAP have been showing this for hours and have relatively good trends with current conditions. NW will follow in its wake Thu-Fri as a ridge and subtropical high develops over the Wrn USA. As the low heads toward the upr Midwest. A stronger Canadian cold front will drop to the US border by this time as well. The approach of this low should result in a warm front passing E thru the fcst area Fri. Tue will turn cooler with the rest of the week averaging closer to normal. A few brief hit-or- miss shwrs still look probable with the upr trof Wed. The higher resolution guidance keeps the LIFR visibilities around through mid-morning, but keeps LIFR to IFR ceilings around for a good chunk of the day at both KEAR/KGRI.
Otherwise, upper level ridge will continue to build across the region tonight into Sunday. Highs will be above normal for this time of year with temperatures in the lower 90s across the Victoria Crossroads to middle 90s over the Rio Grande Plains.
Rain chances shift south this evening with a low chance of coastal showers and isolated tstorms offshore again overnight near another coastal trough axis offshore. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with mild high temps in the lower 80s inland today to upper 70s coast. Low temps tonight will range in the low/mid 60s inland to lower 70s along the St. Upper ridge builds over Southeastern U. Upper ridge intensifies over Southeastern U. High temps will be generally in the low-mid 80s. Upper trough digs toward Southeastern U.
402 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016 Southeast Texas's above normal temperatures will continue for the next several days as mid/upper level ridging builds across the area.
The upper low over the Tri-State region this morning will continue east through the day, with ridging prevailing at the surface. Much of the local area will be on the backside of the low today, with subsidence and drying aloft. The easterly flow will push another trough off the Peninsula of Florida later this afternoon, increasing rain chances across the southeast Big Bend late this afternoon and evening. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s area-wide.
506 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016 Remains of a weak upper level trough will continue to weak and eject out of the region as an upper level ridge builds in this evening through Monday.
The system has become more showery in nature, and a cooler airmass moving in may bring snow levels down to below 7000 feet by later this morning.
Low clouds should mix out from 14z through 16Z over most areas with some lingering MVFR cigs possible over the higher terrain NW of AUS through midday. Warm and dry conditions will continue through the short term under weak ridging aloft.
106 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016 Potent low pressure system across the Pacific NW today with quasi- zonal to slight SW flow across the high plains. Unseasonably warm conditions continue as the low lifts into Canada with southwest flow continuing across the region.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue through Monday.
A short wave trof over Alabama was producing scattered showers and few thunderstorms across east Alabama early this morning. At the low levels, a wedge front has pushed into west Alabama bringing an area of low clouds into central Alabama. The easterly flow behind the wedge front has brought in a more moist air mass with surface dewpoints now in the lower to middle 60s. The short wave trof will push east of Alabama by mid morning today and expect a decrease in coverage of showers. Upper level ridge builds into the region Monday and remains in place through much of the upcoming week with zonal flow to our north. Under the ridge, we'll see south to southeasterly flow and above average high temperatures.
Sunday's weather will be very tranquil with surface ridging briefly nosing across the area. high temperatures will be unseasonably mild in the low to mid 60s. Sunday night through Monday night: As the brief high pressure ridge continues to slide to the east of the area Sunday night, low pressure will slide into central Saskatchewan. Additionally, a warm front to the south of the U. Isentropic ascent, associated with the WAA/warm front sliding into the U. As the aforementioned low pressure system shifts eastward into Northern Ontario, a cold front will shift southeast into the U.
Low pressure aloft will keep conditions unsettled through Monday.
The potential exists for some 50kt gusts to mix down, especially across downsloped northeastern foothills and the Pine Ridge area. Another cold front will also move through behind the trough.
Concur with the GFS deterministic which continues to predict a quasi-stationary upper ridge over the Region. The combination of the upper ridge and below normal PWAT values (general PWAT pattern from deterministic GFS/NAM) will preclude significant precipitation over the CWA/MSA during the period.
A upper level ridge anchored over southeastern Texas and downsloping southwesterly surface winds will help send our temperatures back into the 90s areawide Today. The story doesn't change much on the topic of temperatures but we will see stronger winds across the Panhandles, 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts, as a pre-frontal trough tightens the pressure surface gradient over the area.
344 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016 As previously advertised, our weather will be dominated by the interaction between an upper level ridge to our south and upper level trough on the West Coast. The cold front stalled in eastern NE and across central IA, helping calm the winds and clear the clouds overnight creating ideal conditions for fog. Rain chances for northeastern MO will continue to diminish through 7 am as the stalled cold front retreats back north. Monday will be even warmer and windier than today with highs in the upper 80s, low 90s and wind gusts up to 30 mph for the entire area.
411 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016 High pressure will shift south into the Carolinas by Monday. This high stays situated off the Southeast Coast through midweek bringing much warmer temperatures to the area.
Synoptic Setup: Hot high pressure resides over the Southern US Plains while cool pacific air is moving inland over the Pacific Northwest.
520 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016 A ridge of high pressure extending from southern Virginia to off the Mid Atlantic Coast will drift slowly to the south today and Monday. A weak cold front will move to near the New York.
345 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016 WV imagery shows the upper lvl ridge centered over Texas, which resulted in a record high tie at KMAF yesterday. Unfortunately, the ridge is forecast to develop eastward over the next few days, allowing a slight cooling trend.
A low level ridge of high pressure will remain over the area, with drier ridging building in aloft through at least the middle of the week. 500 mb ridging will return behind the wave from the lower MS river valley through tonight. Clouds may be a bit less tonight under the building ridge but moderating thicknesses will allow minimum temperatures to recover another degree or two in most areas.
Weak high pressure overhead will shift east tonight with an increased pressure gradient developing across the state. Expect a brief period of stronger Coteau downslope winds with the shift to south-westerlies as the low moves over eastern North Dakota Sunday night, but this would last an hour or two before winds continue to round to the northwest. We still have a problem saturating the profile initially but with cooler mid level temperatures the expectation is for a few hundreds of QPF.
Next wave ejecting from west coast trough will track across the central plains.
1158 PM MDT Sat Oct 15 2016 Water vapor imagery shows the strong upper low slamming into the PacNW today. Main concern for these differences relates to just how far east the High Winds will impact. For now, issued the High Wind Watch basically for many locations from the I-25 Corridor from Wheatland to the Colorado border westward, with winds first starting in the wind prone areas along and west of the Laramie Range early Monday morning then spreading elsewhere through the later morning. Windy conditions will continue on Monday, but a fetch of increasing moisture and cooler temps will keep a more localized fire weather threat across Laramie County and into the southern Nebraska panhandle. Dry and a little cooler across the CWA Monday night behind a Pacific front with some breezy areas.
254 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016 Latest surface analysis indicates a cold front was inching its way east through central Iowa with low to mid 60 dew points streaming north ahead of the boundary. Cloud cover once again will pose a problem with afternoon temperatures with most of the forecast soundings indicating some breaks in the clouds by mid to late afternoon, which should allow temperatures once again to climb into the mid 70s far northeast, where the clouds will hold on the longest, to the lower 80s across our south and western counties. Breezy conditions will continue into Monday night with the low level jet remaining rather high.
Southwest flow aloft persists across our region tonight and Sunday as a large-scale upper level low/trough over the Pacific Northwest continues to deepen. At the surface, a low pressure center is progged to develop in the lee of the Rockies over southern Alberta and Manitoba by Sunday morning.
Broad upper level ridge across the Desert Southwest and stretching into Texas will continue to amplify the next few days. Easily shattered the high temperature records at Amarillo (88) and Dalhart(87) today, with temperatures in the low to mid 90s this afternoon. Hot and dry weather with breezy southwest winds will continue as the thermal ridge sets up over the western half of the Panhandles Sunday, and shifts eastward on Monday. Winds will increase further on Monday as the leeside trough deepens, with gusts near 35 to 40 mph are possible across the Western Texas Panhandle. Chose to err on the high side of any guidance for winds as a stout pressure gradient and potential for deep mixing exists both days. Upper level ridge axis shifts east on Monday as an upper level trough arrives along the Pacific Northwest coast.
A low level ridge of high pressure will remain over the area, with drier ridging building in aloft through at least the middle of the week. Otherwise, light precip has largely abated over the lower piedmont as upper level Q-vector convergence moves southeast of the area along with a passing upper trough axis. 500 mb ridging will return behind the wave from the lower MS river valley through tonight. Clouds may be a bit less tonight under the building ridge but moderating thicknesses will allow minimum temperatures to recover another degree or two in most areas. At 200 AM Sunday: On Monday morning and upper ridge will extend from TX to Hudson Bay, while an upper trough will be over the Western USA.
636 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016 Remains of a weak upper level trough will continue to weak and eject out of the region as an upper level ridge builds in this evening through Monday.
At the surface, high pressure extending from the mid Atlantic coast into the northern Gulf will retain our light east to southeasterly flow. Mid to upper 80's can be expected in far southwest AL and southeast MS, where high pressure aloft is building in from the west and fewer clouds are expected.
A cold front has moved to the southeast of the forecast area today. Behind the front there is warm advection and increasing moisture in the lower levels. The low clouds and fog will linger much of the morning before moving out similar to this morning. The lingering clouds will keep the temperatures a little cooler in the northeast than in the remainder of the area. The cold front will move through the area mostly during the afternoon on Monday.
Scattered showers and storms will continue north and east of STL this morning, but should shift east of our forecast area by afternoon as the low level jet shifts into the Ohio Valley region and a weak frontal boundary shifts north of our area as a warm front. GKS RIDGE aloft is expected to persist over the south-central and southeastern CONUS into the middle of the week.
A notable temperature gradient exists across the CWA, with upper 60s in NW MO to the lower 80s in central MO. The highest probability of thunderstorms will be across the northeast quarter of the CWA, closest to the greatest lift and instability. As the cold front approaches and stalls, winds will relax in this region with dewpoint depressions approaching zero.
600 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016 Mild conditions are occurring across the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern Kansas early this morning as a warmer air mass continues to spread into the area. Temperatures are currently in the middle 60s to the lower 70s early this morning, which are close to normal highs for this time of year across the area. 850mb temperatures will warm into the upper teens C this afternoon and then into the lower 20s C on Monday.
357 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016 Thermal ridge will remain across the region today, with another very mild day expected. The warmest readings will reside west of a line from Valentine to North Platte, where a drying downslope wind help boost highs into the lower and mid 80s. This will keep highs cooler and have lower to mid 70s for these areas. Weak upper level ridging will keep dry conditions and warmer temperatures in the forecast for Monday. High temperatures Monday will range from the low 70s across Sheridan county to the low 80s across the southeastern forecast area.
A weak ridge moving across the Pacific NW Wed may provide a brief respite from the active weather pattern midweek.
344 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016 Deeper moisture having a tough time displacing the ridge over the area but it will win out eventually today.
Quieter weather is expected most of the upcoming week as high pressure builds overhead.
Warm front will move into the western counties mid to late afternoon, with gusty southerly winds out ahead of the front. Main thing to watch will be the warmth over central SD combined with the drying air near and behind the warm front as it finally moves into the western CWA by mid to late afternoon. Strongest winds are actually expected ahead of the warm front, with slightly lighter winds behind the front. There may even be a lull for a time directly under the trough axis.
444 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016 Upper anticyclone poised over the Permian Basin this morning will edge eastward today downstream of broad troughing across the Intermountain West. Although the gustiest surface winds and thermal ridge will unfold to our north, deeper mixing than yesterday alone could certainly put record highs in jeopardy at Lubbock and Childress. One more warm day will be in store for Monday as the ridge shifts off to the east but we keep decent southwesterly flow at the surface to provide enough downslope warming component to keep highs in the low to mid 90s.
The next in a series of systems with a surface cold front is approaching the area to bring additional precipitation and wind for Sunday afternoon. Shear looks rather strong, but the timing of the cold frontal precipitation band is not favorable for strong storms, though, as it moves through too late in the afternoon. Winds will decrease early this evening behind the cold front.
An upper level trof of low pressure will move through the region today, producing a few showers along the Rocky Mountain Front and a better chance for widespread rain/snow south of a line from Lima to Bozeman to Lewistown.