Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Northerly flow aloft that brought the arctic air will shift east today and will be gone this weekend as we come under a much warmer, and then wetter, westerly flow aloft over the Pacific.
Temperatures were climbing past 80F with dewpoints steady in the lower 70s. An examination of this morning's Key West sounding indicated little if any 24-hour 500 mb height changes, although a solid 1C warmer.
This is likely being driven by a weak wind shift/convergence zone in the low levels.
/issued 538 AM CST Thu Mar 10 2022/ Expect a cool early spring day for the Mid South today as temperatures rise into the lower 60s.
1028 AM EST Thu Mar 10 2022 High pressure will cross the region later today. Weak low pressure will cross the region later Friday.
(18Z TAFS) A cold front is draped just south and west of the Pecos River with N- NE winds prevailing at all terminals. (This afternoon through Friday night) Current observations show today's cold front made it as far south of Fort Stockton. A mid-level trough digging through southern AZ/NM will provide enough lift to support wintry precipitation Friday morning. The highest confidence for precipitation will be across the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains and adjacent plains in Southeast New Mexico as snow. There is some agreement for a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow across the northeastern and eastern Permian Basin, but confidence in precipitation coverage here is low.
1229 PM EST Thu Mar 10 2022 High pressure will keep dry weather and warmer temperature in the forecast through Friday.
1209 PM EST Thu Mar 10 2022 Cold air will continue to settle over the area behind a cold front that passed yesterday.
(The rest of tonight) Cold front has pushed through most of the area this evening, currently located along a line from Durant to Talihina to near Fort Smith. The trend in a faster progression of cooler temps at the surface and aloft should mean an even shorter transition time between a winter mix and all snow.
Breezy conditions will continue through the afternoon and evening hours through the Mojave Desert as a trough passes over the area.
High pressure returns to end the work week leading to dry conditions before a return to precipitation late this weekend. A return to high pressure is expected tomorrow causing dry conditions to start the weekend. Tomorrow will be dry with highs ranging from the 40s and 50s as winds turn more northwesterly with the approaching high pressure.
345 PM CST Thu Mar 10 2022 A mid level front ahead of an upper level trough will result in areas of light snow through this evening across southwestern Kansas.
Otherwise low pressure will slowly deepen as it moves across Ontario on Fri, with its arctic front passing through srn WI from late morning into the middle afternoon. PVA with the upper trough and sfc convergence and low level instability appears just enough for brief and light snow showers along the front.
Numerous sites consistently reporting sustained winds greater than 30 mph ahead, along, and behind the cold front, which is now located from near Dickinson to the Turtle Mountains. The duration will remain short as the aforementioned cold front dives through the region.
Going into Friday, upper ridge over the western portion of the country will begin to push eastward towards the Rockies. Full sunshine is expected on Friday though which is going to allow the area to see warmer temps than today. Finally, for the first half of the weekend, upper ridge will build off the Rockies and break down some, allowing for northwest to zonal downslope flow.
444 PM EST Thu Mar 10 2022 Dry weather should continue through Friday under high pressure.
The duration will remain short as the aforementioned cold front dives through the region.
835 PM EST Thu Mar 10 2022 Dry weather should continue through Friday under high pressure.
The strongest winds will diminish after sunset but as the aforementioned weather system and associated cold front sweep through the region, there will be just enough moisture and lift for the chance of a few showers this evening into the overnight hours. The mountains will have the potential to see around an inch of snow as the cold front moves through. This will result in cooler temperatures with highs topping out in the mid 60's for Tucson.
551 PM CST Thu Mar 10 2022 (00Z TAFS) A strong cold front will move through the region tonight, accompanied by gusty NE winds. (This afternoon through Friday night) Current observations show today's cold front made it as far south of Fort Stockton. A mid-level trough digging through southern AZ/NM will provide enough lift to support wintry precipitation Friday morning. The highest confidence for precipitation will be across the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains and adjacent plains in Southeast New Mexico as snow. There is some agreement for a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow across the northeastern and eastern Permian Basin, but confidence in precipitation coverage here is low.
This light wintry precipitation and weak frontal boundary will take some time to work east thanks to an area of high pressure off the eastern seaboard. However, the front will intensify in association with a deepening longwave trough axis associated with it.
407 PM MST Thu Mar 10 2022 20z surface analysis had low near CYDN with warm front into eastern SD and cold front into northern MT. Gusty westerly winds over northwest SD in response to 4mb/3hr pressure falls along warm front. Synoptic forcing weak, but low level baroclinic zone behind cold front will be sufficient to support a few shsn, particularly over far northeast WY into the northern Black Hills. The weekend looks much warmer and mostly dry as upper ridge builds into the area with breezy westerly winds.
However, the front will intensify in association with a deepening longwave trough axis associated with it.
A strong cold front will continue to push southward across the Concho Valley and the rest of west central Texas this evening. Expect temperatures to drop down to the mid 20s across the northern half of the area, to the lower 30s along the I-10 corridor by morning. In addition, an upper level storm system will move across west Texas, with light showers developing overnight, switching to a mix of light freezing rain, sleet, and a bit of snow. However, patches of ice could develop on elevated surfaces, bridges and overpasses for a few hours Friday morning. Precipitation will taper off by the afternoon, but a few flurries will be possible, with temperatures only warming into the lower to mid 30s.
The most recent storm system will continue to shift E and S (eventually becoming a major storm system along the E Coast this weekend) as cold, dry Canadian high pressure becomes more dominant across the region. A swift-moving cold front will move through tonight and provide a reinforcing shot of Arctic air and breezy NW winds for Friday.
115 PM PST Thu Mar 10 2022 A trough moving across Southern California will bring northeast to the mountains and valleys tonight.
trough and cold front will move southward through northern Arizona this evening bringing a period of snow to most areas along and north of the Mogollon Rim, ending early Friday morning in the White Mountains. As the low drops southeastward overnight, pressure gradients will tighten on the back side of the low generating strong northeasterly winds. Warming conditions are expected over the weekend as high pressure returns.
542 PM CST Thu Mar 10 2022 Cold front of interest for tonight is currently making its way southward across western ND and eastern MT.
317 PM MST Thu Mar 10 2022 Current GOES-East water vapor imagery shows a sharp, positively tilted trough pushing across the California/Nevada/Arizona triple point as of early this afternoon. As the trough slides to our south, skies will clear from north to south overnight. Temperatures in the lower/desert valleys will bottom out in the teens and single digits, with single digits above and below zero expected elsewhere. This weekend is shaping up to be quiet and cool under high pressure.
Meanwhile, advancing cold front will provide for a few snow showers over the northeast CWA this evening, with lower vsbys possible for a short duration as the showers move through. Cold front of interest for tonight is currently making its way southward across western ND and eastern MT.
Drier and cooler air filtering in from the north will lead to gradual clearing. 925 hpa temperatures are expected to hover throughout the day around -5 C leading to high temperatures within a few degrees of freezing.
High temps today will generally meet or fall just shy of the freezing mark, leaving any snow melting to the increasingly powerful March sun. Winds will be light and variable as the high pressure ridge slips through the area from north to south. Record lows aren't likely, but will be 25-30 degrees cooler than normal under the waxing moon.
329 PM CST Thu Mar 10 2022 Cold front of interest for tonight is currently making its way southward across western ND and eastern MT.
Near-record cold low temperatures tomorrow morning will be followed by warming conditions going into the weekend as a Pacific ridge builds inland.
415 PM PST Thu Mar 10 2022 A trough moving across Southern California will bring northeast to the mountains and valleys tonight.
445 PM MST Thu Mar 10 2022 Current GOES-East water vapor imagery shows a sharp, positively tilted trough pushing across the California/Nevada/Arizona triple point as of early this afternoon. As the trough slides to our south, skies will clear from north to south overnight. Temperatures in the lower/desert valleys will bottom out in the teens and single digits, with single digits above and below zero expected elsewhere. This weekend is shaping up to be quiet and cool under high pressure.
547 PM CST Thu Mar 10 2022 An elongated mid/upper trough axis stretched from the Central Great Basin area across the Rockies and into the Northern Plains early this afternoon.
Tomorrow, temperatures will rise into the upper 50s to mid 60s as southerly flow increases ahead of an approaching cold front.
A mid level front ahead of an upper level trough will result in areas of light snow through this evening across southwestern Kansas.
310 PM MST Thu Mar 10 2022 The upper level trough that brought the snow and cold will slide southeast of the region tonight and Friday. A few snow showers will be possible through early evening over the higher terrain south of I-70. Northerly flow behind the exiting trough will keep the warming trend slow. It will be chilly Friday with highs in the lower to mid 30s across northeast Colorado.
522 PM CST Thu Mar 10 2022 (Through tonight ) Cold front currently aligned near the Interstate 44 corridor across NE OK will accelerate southward overnight and clear NW AR and far SE OK early Friday morning.
The good news is that high pressure is gradually beginning to build over the area and this will keep things dry, while also allowing temperatures to begin to moderate over the days ahead. Upward temperature swing begins tomorrow as high pressure continues to amplify with daytime highs likely 7-10 degrees warmer than Thursday, but still running on the cold side of normal.
A cold front will continue to make its way through central Arizona tonight bringing region-wide cold temperatures and gusty northeast winds as precipitation tapers from west to east. Light to moderate snow showers continue across north- central Arizona this evening, but according to current radar returns, snowfall intensity and coverage are beginning to decrease as the trough and associated cold front push their way through central Arizona. Also had a bit of convection about 20 miles north of Winslow around 5 PM MST today as the leading edge of the cold front pushed its way through from the north. As the low drops southeastward overnight, pressure gradients will tighten on the back side of the low generating strong northeasterly winds. Warming conditions are expected over the weekend as high pressure returns.
1109 PM CST Thu Mar 10 2022 An elongated mid/upper trough axis stretched from the Central Great Basin area across the Rockies and into the Northern Plains early this afternoon.
334 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 The trough that has largely sat over the western U. The cold front associated with the trough has moved into central Indiana from the NW earlier tonight and will continue to push precip across the area into tonight.
Current GOES-East water vapor imagery shows a sharp, positively tilted trough pushing across the California/Nevada/Arizona triple point as of early this afternoon. As the trough slides to our south, skies will clear from north to south overnight. Temperatures in the lower/desert valleys will bottom out in the teens and single digits, with single digits above and below zero expected elsewhere. This weekend is shaping up to be quiet and cool under high pressure.
1050 PM CST Thu Mar 10 2022 (The rest of tonight) Cold front has pushed through most of the area this evening, currently located along a line from Durant to Talihina to near Fort Smith. The trend in a faster progression of cooler temps at the surface and aloft should mean an even shorter transition time between a winter mix and all snow.
Conditions may improve briefly Friday afternoon, but another round of numerous to widespread showers and storms (some potentially strong to severe) will develop as a strong cold front moves through the region late Friday night.
1235 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 Dry weather today under high pressure.
Every bit of the heat was felt, thanks to dewpoints in the lower 70s and mainly gentle breezes. High pressure will continue to maintain gentle to light breezes across the island chain through the night.
930 PM PST Thu Mar 10 2022 A trough moving across Southern California will bring northeast to the mountains and valleys tonight.
221 AM CST Fri Mar 11 2022 Cold front that pushed through the area yesterday was moving even faster south as a reinforcing shot of cold air moved into the upper Mississippi River valley. High pressure will build into the area, leading a well below normal low temperatures today and tonight. These winds and cooler temps will add a bite to the air for the middle of March across the area.
Pops will quickly be at zero percent for much of the day as cool high pressure prevails across the greater region. The main exception is went with cooler highs over the higher snowpack across the northern counties.
An upper level trough and the corresponding cold front will create a frontogenetic line which will move through the region this evening.
Current radar trends and these model solutions suggest the snow bands in northern Oklahoma to reach the I-40 corridor in the next few hours, with the highest totals somewhere east of I-35 and north of I-40. The synoptic scale models are in less agreement, with the NAM solutions showing the highest amounts near the OKC metro, while the GFS solutions are completely dry near the metro.
A strong cold front will shift winds around to the north, with deteriorating ceilings late tonight into Friday morning. Most areas will see MVFR cigs by sunrise, with patchy light sleet, light snow, and light freezing rain across the area.
151 AM MST Fri Mar 11 2022 Western CONUS ridge will shift east this weekend, allowing for much milder air to push back into the region. Cold front and associated upper trough has pushed through the region. Western ridge will shift east this weekend with WAA spreading into the region via breezy westerly winds. There are some indications that enough WAA upglide may develop late tonight into Sat morning ahead of the warm front to support some flurries or light snow across NE WY into NW SD.
1029 PM CST Thu Mar 10 2022 (06Z TAFS) A strong cold front moving through the region tonight will result in gusty NE winds, with gusts 25-30kt common at area terminals, with intermittent higher gusts possible, particularly at HOB/MAF. (This afternoon through Friday night) Current observations show today's cold front made it as far south of Fort Stockton. A mid-level trough digging through southern AZ/NM will provide enough lift to support wintry precipitation Friday morning. The highest confidence for precipitation will be across the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains and adjacent plains in Southeast New Mexico as snow. There is some agreement for a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow across the northeastern and eastern Permian Basin, but confidence in precipitation coverage here is low.
1000 PM MST Thu Mar 10 2022 20z surface analysis had low near CYDN with warm front into eastern SD and cold front into northern MT. Gusty westerly winds over northwest SD in response to 4mb/3hr pressure falls along warm front. Synoptic forcing weak, but low level baroclinic zone behind cold front will be sufficient to support a few shsn, particularly over far northeast WY into the northern Black Hills. The weekend looks much warmer and mostly dry as upper ridge builds into the area with breezy westerly winds.
High pressure returns for today and tomorrow, bringing dry conditions and warmer temps.
The sun angle this time of year is quite favorable to help melt snow off hard surfaces (like roads); however, prolonged overnight sub-freezing temperatures and lingering cloud cover means it will take until at least late morning to early afternoon to start seeing its effects. Behind the snow, a large push of cold dry air makes its way into the region keeping highs in the low to mid 30s. This begins the rebound of warmer temperatures.
High temperatures Saturday afternoon, in the low to mid 30s across the east and low to mid 50s across the west, will have rebounded ~40 to 55 degrees from the morning, and ~30 to 35 degrees from Friday's highs. When the period opens Saturday night, a low pressure system is moving down through northwest flow, bringing precipitation chances to, mainly, North Dakota and Minnesota.
434 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 Cold air will continue to settle over the area as a low pressure area moves along a front and brings accumulating snow to the forecast area. Highs will be in the lower to mid 30s today and only around 25 Saturday.
410 AM MST Fri Mar 11 2022 Aviation Section Updated Warmer temperatures will move into the region today, along with an increase in westerly winds.
Although conditions will be dry today, the exception to this may be the northern Elkheads and Park Range where a brisk northwest flow and 90 kt jet streak moving overhead with the departing trough may be enough to squeeze out the last little bit of moisture that is left with some light snow flurries and trace amounts at the higher peaks. Temperatures tonight will not be nearly as cold as temperatures moderate with a ridge of high pressure moving in Saturday and some warm air advection taking place. Temperatures rebound under high pressure by about 10 degrees Saturday afternoon from today's forecast highs, but still a good 10 degrees below normal.
Regional mid-level water vapor imagery shows a slow moving trough axis moving toward western KS. That trough will move eastward across KS through the day. Cloud cover will stay in place ahead of the trough until dry air on the western side of the axis arrives later today. A cooler air mass continues to filter into the area, so well below average temperatures remain in the forecast. Warmer weather is on the horizon and will be realized as mid-level ridging and southerly low level flow return late this weekend.
A warming trend continues across the Northern Rockies today as a ridge of high pressure amplifies across the region. A wintry mix of rain and snow, with isolated pockets of freezing rain is possible for valley locations below 3,500 feet.
The sun angle this time of year is quite favorable to help melt snow off hard surfaces (like roads); however, the prolonged overnight of sub-freezing temperatures means it will take until at least mid morning to start seeing its effects. Behind the snow, a large push of cold dry air makes its way into the region keeping highs in the low to mid 30s. This begins the rebound of warmer temperatures.
Building high pressure will result in a gradual warming trend through Saturday as conditions remain dry.
427 AM MST Fri Mar 11 2022 Western CONUS ridge will shift east this weekend, allowing for much milder air to push back into the region. Cold front and associated upper trough has pushed through the region. Western ridge will shift east this weekend with WAA spreading into the region via breezy westerly winds. There are some indications that enough WAA upglide may develop late tonight into Sat morning ahead of the warm front to support some flurries or light snow across NE WY into NW SD.
A low pressure system developing to our south will bring a significant snowfall to most of the area tonight and Saturday.
So, a good 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. High pressure continues to build in from the west bringing overall dry conditions, overall light winds, and warmer temperatures. By Saturday high pressure builds in even more causing temperatures to become near normal, especially for our western areas.
422 AM CST Fri Mar 11 2022 A cold front will bring a late season accumulating snow event this evening into Saturday morning. We will struggle to get much above freezing, but the good news is the sun should be out melting the snow.
315 AM CST Fri Mar 11 2022 Key Messages: - Light snow possible with cold frontal passage today. - Cold Saturday morning, but warmer weather is just around the corner. An area of low pressure was located over southwest Ontario early this morning with a cold front extending south across Minnesota. The low will progress pretty quickly to the east today allowing the cold front to push across the local area this morning. Compared to climatology, the NAEFS would peg these 850 mb temperatures in the lower 0.
Surface WAA advection ramps up Saturday as the high pressure system moves off to the east.
The 500 mb vort max and 500 mb trough is moving toward Kenora at 09z and there is a nice spin noticed on IR satellite as well with an area of clouds and very light snow from Winnipeg and SE Manitoba advecting south into Pembina, Cavalier, Hallock and Roseau. Not looking for a big increase in winds this morning as cold advection push has left the area and was associated with the cold front earlier last evening. A cold night tonight and wind chill advisories may be needed once again as high pressure slides west and south of the forecast area keeping winds up. Gusty south winds ahead of the low combined with winds will bring some blowing snow.
A warm front will move through the region tonight, keeping temperatures from falling much (if at all) overnight, and in some spots rising. It'll definitely feel a lot warmer across Northeast Montana on Saturday. However, the winds will crank up across the area ahead of a relatively weak cold front that moves through in the afternoon and evening. The higher elevations of the Little Rockies and the Big Sheeps should see the strongest winds.
525 AM CST Fri Mar 11 2022 (Today and tonight) Early this morning, a strong cold front had pushed just south of the Interstate-10 corridor, bringing temperatures down to the low to mid 30s and wind chills in the teens and 20s. To the west, an upper-level trough was over the Desert Southwest and moving eastward. Minor disturbances in the upper level flow ahead of the main trough will help to generate wintry precipitation chances across most of the area this morning. The main trough axis will push through the area this afternoon, bringing precip chances to an end, with a few breaks in the clouds possible. Regardless of precipitation, the overcast skies, stout inversion, and northerly surface winds of 20 MPH will cause temperatures to generally maintain a flat-line trend today, holding in the low 30s.
Tomorrow will be much warmer as high pressure transitions south of our area and southerly flow returns, with highs generally in the mid 20s to low 30s.