Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Strong high pressure will build over the region through the rest of the week bringing a warming trend. Strong high pressure continues to build into the western CONUS this evening while downstream, Utah remains in a northwesterly flow aloft. With a drier and more stable airmass associated with the building ridge, expect a period of quiet and warm weather which will continue through late this week. Some enhanced northwesterly flow will continue through late this evening, especially across the eastern valleys, behind the cold front associated with the trough which is now moving across Colorado.
852 PM EDT Tue May 2 2017 A reinforcing cold front will pass through tonight.
Much drier air in the low to mid levels will keep skies mostly clear from the Orlando area northward with clouds lingering across srn areas overnight.
1014 PM EDT Tue May 2 2017 Marine Lingering light rain showers and sprinkles will taper off late this afternoon and early evening as the upper level low pressure system moves further away from our region. High pressure will build in overnight and it will be cool with low temperatures in the middle 30s with some patchy frost. Fair and seasonably cool weather will then continue Wednesday with high pressure in control.
1035 PM EDT Tue May 2 2017 A reinforcing cold front will pass through tonight.
/issued 326 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017/ Messy pattern continues, with ample moisture remaining over the state as high pressure builds into the region from the south/east over the next few days.
High pressure is skirting by the north coast of Superior, with ridging extending south toward eastern Iowa. The high shifts to Georgian Bay on Wednesday, with warm advection getting underway. Max temps Wednesday mainly 70s, with the TVC area poking up into the lower 80s.
932 PM PDT Tue Aug 15 2017 A trough of low pressure along the west coast will bring another cooler than average day Wednesday.
/Issued 1245 PM PDT Tue Aug 15 2017/ Weak trough across the west will allow for light winds as well as temperatures near to slightly above average through the week.
Strengthening ridge over FL/GA will start to build west Wed night and should move directly overhead Thu. With the ridge still off to the east, ample moisture to tap into, and maybe even some weak support from a s/w moving northeast through TX we will see scattered to numerous storms again tomorrow. Convection should quickly come to an end as we head into the evening hours as the ridge really begins to shift towards us.
1157 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 A weak and almost exclusively dry cold front will drift south across Central PA tonight before dissipating as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes region.
723 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 High pressure brings drier weather on Wednesday but unsettled pattern returns to end the week with another cold front. High pressure pushes down this evening and will keep us mostly dry through Wednesday.
Morning lows will likely be slightly warmer than yesterday. Broad upper level ridging along the Gulf Coast today will build northward into portions of the Mid South on Wednesday. This should allow temperatures to warm back to near normal with highs mainly in the lower 90s.
919 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 An area of high pressure will build into the region tonight through Wednesday night.
The threat for rainfall will be pretty slow to exit on Wednesday as the upper level trough of low pressure is just moving east of Interstate 29 by about 21z.
1043 PM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017 As of 19z this afternoon, the axis of a 500 mb trough is analyzed just west of the Green River valley in central Utah. This trough axis will pivot eastward through the remainder of the day, crossing the CO/UT border by 0z and exiting the forecast area east of the Continental Divide after 06z tonight. Low level dry air with notably lower PWAT values continue to round the base of this trough and advect into the southern half of Utah and Colorado. partially aided by positive vorticity advection on the leading side of the trough axis. Given the dry air and light flow aloft, thunderstorm chances in the higher terrain will be quite low, and valley locations will see a dry, mostly sunny afternoon with temperatures running right around seasonal averages.
75 inches across much of the region, and potentially up to near an inch across west central Minnesota (closer to the deformation zone as main mid/upper low propagates through on Wednesday).
Temperatures forecast to climb into the low to mid 90s on Wednesday as surface and upper-level ridge become better established across the region. Cloud-cover, enhanced winds, and proximity of the ridge will all play into whether conditions will warrant a heat advisory.
Broad upper level ridging along the Gulf Coast today will build northward into portions of the Mid South on Wednesday. This should allow temperatures to warm back to near normal with highs mainly in the lower 90s.
Subjective 12Z upper-air analysis indicates continued rather weak upper-level flow and features, with a ridge axis from IA through MN, upper-level low centered in northern ON, and weaker upper-level low over AB, with trough axis extending through MT/ID/NV/CA.
Will not carry the lower conditions at this time due to usual uncertainty of the timing, but have a general trend towards mention of -SHRA and VCTS as the morning progresses towards midday. Strengthening ridge over FL/GA will start to build west Wed night and should move directly overhead Thu. With the ridge still off to the east, ample moisture to tap into, and maybe even some weak support from a s/w moving northeast through TX we will see scattered to numerous storms again tomorrow. Convection should quickly come to an end as we head into the evening hours as the ridge really begins to shift towards us.
Overnight, skies become partly cloudy and once again a little warmer than the night before.
This complex was likely influenced by a weak upper wave traversing ewd on the N side of the ridge pattern in place over the ern Gulf of Mex. Very warm to hot, unsettled weather will continue into the mid and latter half of the work week, as high pressure east of the region brings a southerly flow across the southeast CONUS.
/issued 339 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017/ Numerous showers and thunderstorms ongoing this afternoon as expected with the highest coverage across acadiana.
A drier airmass will advect into North Carolina tonight and Wednesday as a back-door cold front progresses southward into the Mid-Atlantic.
Despite an associated shield of mid/high clouds, diurnal heating and surface dew points in the lower 70s has resulted in MLCAPE values in excess of 2000 j/kg over much of southern Kansas ahead of the mid-level feature. Late tonight chances for convection are expected to increase further north across central Kansas as forcing for ascent increases ahead of the main upper trof moving into the central Rockies. For now will plan on the front being situated along the turnpike corridor at late afternoon which should focus the higher PoPs across the Flint Hills/southeast Kansas during Wednesday evening.
though there is a vague consensus of the area developing north/northeast through the late evening/overnight while the main trough continues to increase from the west. but afternoon as the entire trough slides east the likelihood of showers/thunderstorms will be higher. /Wednesday night through Tuesday/ Surface cold front tied to the aforementioned trough will move across central Iowa Wednesday night with showers and storms preceding the front.
809 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 Ridging aloft. The Atlantic subtropical ridge across south FL early this evening. The ridge axis bisecting the area Wed will result in morning showers/storms moving inland from Tampa Bay northward. Atlantic high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico.
617 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017 A large 500mb trough was set up across the western half of the nation, with a ridge across MN and down through IL, leaving us in southwesterly flow aloft. An initial embedded trough currently over western WY will swing over western SD Wednesday morning, and exit across the eastern half of the state through the afternoon hours. We are currently stuck between exiting high pressure across the Great Lakes region, and low pressure nearing from western SD/NE.
521 PM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017 As of 19z this afternoon, the axis of a 500 mb trough is analyzed just west of the Green River valley in central Utah. This trough axis will pivot eastward through the remainder of the day, crossing the CO/UT border by 0z and exiting the forecast area east of the Continental Divide after 06z tonight. Low level dry air with notably lower PWAT values continue to round the base of this trough and advect into the southern half of Utah and Colorado. partially aided by positive vorticity advection on the leading side of the trough axis. Given the dry air and light flow aloft, thunderstorm chances in the higher terrain will be quite low, and valley locations will see a dry, mostly sunny afternoon with temperatures running right around seasonal averages.
A cold front will approach from the northwest Wednesday night.
Tonight and Wednesday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show high pressure centered over Lake Superior and extending southward over the Badger State. High pressure will be sliding east across the region tonight. High pressure will slide to the eastern Great Lakes, while the flow aloft will turn to the south and southwest.
1259 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 High pressure will slide from the northern Great Lakes to the eastern Great Lakes today. Adequate low level moisture to support some renewed diurnal cu growth as this airmass overturns, with a particular focus from the eastern thumb down through the Ohio border within a couple regions of enhanced low level troughing/ convergence. Influx of lower theta-e air commences through tonight, as low level flow turns northeasterly within the eastern flank of expanding high pressure centered over lake superior. This high will govern conditions through Wednesday, eventually taking residence across northern lake huron by late in the day. Existing airmass will moderate minimally under this pattern, pointing to a very seasonable mid August day with highs peaking in the lower 80s.
The building ridge is in response to the departure of Hurricane Gert as she accelerates northeast into the North Atlantic away from the Florida Peninsula. As the mean layer builds north, the low level axis will creep northward across Florida, slowly freshening the east to southeast breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. The deep, rich tropical air across the Western Caribbean will follow the ridge northward. By Wednesday early afternoon, the northeast wind flow will aid in the development of clouds and showers over the island chain, mainly over the Lower Keys.
Otherwise, expect temperatures near or slightly cooler than average August temperatures. (Tomorrow night through Tuesday) West Central Texas will remain in southwest flow aloft Wednesday evening as an upper level trough remains across the western CONUS and an upper level ridge remains across the Southeast United States. Upper level ridging will slowly build into West Central Texas for the latter part of the work week, decreasing rain chances.
A weak inverted trough remains rather stagnant across SE LA overnight and this in combination with higher PWAT values in our SE zones and a persistant theta-e ridge in the 850-700mb layer suggests we could see some isolated convective redevelopment towards sunrise.
Expect dry conditions and warmer temperatures for Wednesday.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 92 75 91 / 30 30 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 89 72 90 / 30 30 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 71 89 72 90 / 20 30 20 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 86 68 88 / 20 20 20 30.
1015 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 High pressure brings drier weather on Wednesday but unsettled pattern returns to end the week with another cold front. Upper 60s in the lowlands a better bet than the mid 60s from the previous forecast. High pressure pushes down this evening and will keep us mostly dry through Wednesday.
533 PM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over northwest NE, with warm front extending east across northern NE and cool front south and west of the area. Upper level analysis shows low pressure across southwest SK, with upper trough now extending south across the Northern Rockies into the central Rockies. Temps range from the 60s over northeast WY and the Black Hills to the low to mid 80s across south central SD.
The early morning upper air observations show an upper trough in place over the western U. The heat combined with a continued moist southeasterly flow in the low-levels will result in elevated heat index values Wednesday afternoon and early evening.
1159 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017 A fairly active 24 hour period shaping up for the lower Missouri Valley as at least 2 rounds of convection are possible before through tomorrow evening. Latest model trends have delayed the departure of this first round of convection Wednesday morning, which leads to significant uncertainty for redeveloping convection later in the day out ahead of the main cold front that is expected to move through the region through the afternoon and evening hours. Precip to come to an end through Thurs morning as high pressure begins sliding east from the Plains.
/issued 242 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night): No significant changes to the short term forecast as a strong H5 ridge remains perched over much of the Southeastern U. While it is doubtful that any precip will form due to the exceedingly dry air aloft and lack of forcing, the moisture could raise dewpoints enough at the surface on Wednesday to be concerned about warmer heat index values.
A strong upper level trof across UT/NV this afternoon will approach Nebraska overnight lowering heights aloft, steepening lapse rates and forcing thunderstorm development. The model consensus shows a sfc cold front drifting southeast overnight with a large warm sector opening up across Ncntl Neb. The rain activity is expected to shift east Wednesday morning with cooler temperatures and northwest winds.
Look for a gradual warming trend through late week as high pressure builds over the region. With this, temperatures are generally running a few degrees warmer compared to this time yesterday. This slight warming trend is also a result of warming temperatures aloft as high pressure builds in from the west. The building ridge is then forecast to be replaced by another mid/upper level trough that will drop southward toward the Pacific Northwest late in the weekend.
An upper level trough of low pressure track eastward across Quebec and swing a cold front through the North Country overnight.
1054 PM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over northwest NE, with warm front extending east across northern NE and cool front south and west of the area. Upper level analysis shows low pressure across southwest SK, with upper trough now extending south across the Northern Rockies into the central Rockies. Temps range from the 60s over northeast WY and the Black Hills to the low to mid 80s across south central SD.
Lows tonight will drop into the 60s, with highs on Wednesday in the low to mid 80s.
Model guidance is lacking clarity although generally confirms a mainly eastward movement favoring the Texas Panhandle closer to upper support provided by a mid level short wave trough. Otherwise VFR with modest south winds backing slightly toward southwest Wednesday morning as the upper trough swings across the High Plains. Once the trough axis lifts out of southern New Mexico into the Central Plains through the course of the day tomorrow, we'll see high pressure, currently across the southern Gulf States attempt to inch westward.
Convection has cleared out of much of the area with some remaining across the Lower Trans Pecos and in/around southeast New Mexico. /issued 150 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017/ Today have an upper ridge centered over FL with a broad trough over the western US.
A cold front is expected to enter northwest Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front toward the the end of the TAF period. One of the stronger waves passes overhead tomorrow and tomorrow night, bringing the highest rain chances to the area, along with a risk of additional severe storms.
931 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 Upper level ridge remains across Florida this evening.
1114 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 A weak and almost exclusively dry cold front will drift south across Central PA tonight before dissipating as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes region.
621 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017 A fairly active 24 hour period shaping up for the lower Missouri Valley as at least 2 rounds of convection are possible before through tomorrow evening. Latest model trends have delayed the departure of this first round of convection Wednesday morning, which leads to significant uncertainty for redeveloping convection later in the day out ahead of the main cold front that is expected to move through the region through the afternoon and evening hours. Precip to come to an end through Thurs morning as high pressure begins sliding east from the Plains.
Mid/upper level ridging will hold across Florida through the period with the subtropical ridge axis drifting north into central Florida during Wednesday. Temperatures will remain near to a couple of degrees above normal with overnight lows in the mid 70s to around 80 and daytime highs mostly in the lower to mid 90s.
844 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 A weak and almost exclusively dry cold front will drift south across Central PA tonight before dissipating as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes region.
If the high clouds thin out quicker, fog becomes more likely.
The majority of the convection looks to be tied to the higher terrain, but a few isolated cells have formed over the plains of south central Montana this afternoon, so will keep low PoPs early this evening. Wednesday looks warmer and drier with less cloud cover. An isolated shower or thunderstorm can not be ruled out over the higher terrain and along the foothills, but that should be the extent of the activity.
817 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017 A cold front in the forecast area today will stall just off the coast tonight.
Current (08Z) obs range from the low to upper 60s under clear skies across the TN Valley. These are 5-10 degrees cooler than 24 hrs ago thanks to the cold front passage yesterday and radiational cooling. Daytime highs will reach the low/mid 80s and you will be able to feel a difference with those lower dewpoints in place! Mostly clear skies will help temps fall into the lower 60s and even the upper 50s in southern middle TN tonight. Winds will become northeasterly and temps just a tad warmer.
Recent water vapor imagery shows upper ridge still in in place over the Rockies with a weak wave making northeast progress through it in northern Arizona. The upper wave shifts southeast into Oklahoma tonight while weak convergence along a developing lee trough may generate some thunderstorms over northwestern Kansas and southwestern Nebraska, but still expect dry air to keep anything more than an isolated shower or two from reaching here.
This as low pressure aloft remains over the region and a weak frontal boundary slips south over the area. Temperatures across central Louisiana and the lakes region of southeast Texas are in the lower 70s while temperatures along the coast are in the middle 70s with a light north wind.
816 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017 A weak cold front is expected to generate some spotty showers today with much cooler than normal temperatures. Weekend weather will feature cool and dry conditions with high pressure. Rapid cooling in the mid levels combined with diurnal heating should allow for shower development as the mid- level trough swings across the area. Fries A broad upper trough in the ern CONUS will dominate the wx pattern through much of the remaining forecast as an upper ridge amplifies in the central CONUS. An upper trough could also result in isolated to scattered showers this afternoon. Clouds should scatter out tonight as the trough exits. No widespread restrictions expected under high pressure.
939 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017 Clear skies and tranquil wx conditions prevail across the cntrl TN Valley this Thu morning, as temp trends rebound into the lower 70s from their earlier lows ranging mainly from the upper 50s/lower 60s. Strong area of high pressure is currently making its way ewd into the Midwest/OH Valley states, and should continue to result in fair wx conditions later today. Mostly clear skies will help temps fall into the lower 60s and even the upper 50s in southern middle TN tonight. Winds will become northeasterly and temps just a tad warmer.
1025 mb high pressure over western Ontario and ridging southward into eastern IA/MO and west central IL will drift into Lake Superior and WI by sunset and continue to ridge into IL providing fair weather and fairly light north to northeast winds under 10 mph. Some mid level/sprinkles to the NW running into a ridge and a very dry airmass per the 00Z ILX sounding.
A lingering low pressure system over southern California continues to slowly move to the east. Moisture streaming ahead of a low pressure system in the eastern Pacific slides ahead of an upper level front draped off the coast of northern California. A building high pressure will approach the Great Basin Friday and will keep any unsettled weather and moisture from impacting the region.
Temps to top out a bit cooler than earlier in the work week. Farther S along the cold front FG is down to a 2 to 3 mi. With enhanced cloud cover and a cooler airmass advecting south across the region, high temperatures today to climb into the mid to upper 80s.
518 AM MDT Thu Aug 24 2017 An upper level ridge covers the western 2/3 of the CONUS, with the next wave to affect the region pushing into western WY. At the surface, a trough continues to stretch across eastern MT/WY. Winds are generally southeasterly around 10 kts, and temperatures are in the lower 60s. The upper ridge axis will shift over the central states today as the Canadian trough moves through the Pacific Northwest.
The strongest cells are currently favoring the Gulf waters immediately north of the Lower Keys, and in the waters well offshore from Mainland Monroe county. Thanks to the axis of the weak trough aligned just to the west of the island chain, most of the activity is pushing northward close to 10 knots. The weak trough lingering near South Florida and the Keys will keep gentle south to southwest breezes across the coastal waters surrounding the Keys island chain over the next several days.
High pressure aloft will gradually strengthen across the Great Basin over the next several days. Moving forward a drying/stabilizing and warming trend will become the focus as high pressure amplifies over the Great Basin Region for the remainder of the forecast period.
/issued 453 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017/ (Today and Tonight) A weak upper level ridge to our west will weaken further, and tropical cyclone Harvey in the Gulf of Mexico will move slowly to the northwest.
A cool and dry airmass was in place under Canadian high pressure reaching from WI to MO. KDVN showed a few very weak showers, likely just sprinkles reaching into east central and southwest IA, rapidly weakening as they moved away from the upper level support and into the drier air under the low level ridge. Given the cool start and less sunshine in a similar airmass, today should be cooler in most areas than the past couple days and have held highs to the lower 70s north, and mid to upper 70s from the central to the far south.
1039 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017 High pressure and a seasonably cool airmass will be in place across the region through the end of the week. Temperatures will be seasonably cool today with highs mainly in the low to mid 70s.
1258 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017 A cold front in the forecast area today will stall just off the coast tonight.