Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Concur with the deterministic NAM/GFS/ECMWF that the upper inverted trough will move westward across the CWA tonight, followed by a upper ridge building over the region from the E/NE Thursday. Thus, the combination of the decreasing influence of the upper trough/increasing moisture will contribute to convection tonight/early Thursday near the coast. Despite the upper ridge, expect moisture to be sufficient for at least isolated convection over the entire Coastal Plains Thursday, especially along the sea breeze.
A cold front was entering our far nw cwa and thunderstorms were rapidly firing in ne IA along the front. Thursday: The front will get a push southward to about I-80 by late afternoon, in response to a deepening trough in the upper Midwest, and deep closed low near Hudson Bay. As of now, SPC has a marginal risk for severe storms ahead of the cold front, with a slight risk in our far south.
935 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021 High pressure will prevail across the area into the upcoming weekend.
A cold front will bring a northerly wind shift through early this evening. /ISSUED 150 PM MDT Wed Aug 11 2021/ Northwesterly flow continues over the Northern Rockies as upper level ridging builds over the Pacific Northwest, and an elongated upper disturbance within the northwesterly flow is helping to push a shallow cold front south across the plains this afternoon into this evening. Some cooler air in the wake of the front will bring a temporary dip in temperatures for Thursday, mostly over the plains.
Yet another wave of strong to severe storms is projected to develop across northern Illinois late in the afternoon ahead of an advancing cold front.
The high resolution HRRR, HREF, and NAM-WRF family of numerical guidance appear to be handling the general timing of the today's MCS's in the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys's fairly well.
550 PM MDT Wed Aug 11 2021 Warm and dry conditions will continue today through Thursday morning as high pressure strengthens over the western CONUS. Wind this afternoon should generally remain below critical fire weather values, but still have low minimum relative humidity across the lower elevations, especially southern areas. On Thursday a weak cold front will try to push in from the northeast. This will lead to slightly cooler temperatures and elevated relative humidity values across areas east of the Divide.
A ridge of high pressure remains in control of the West Coast as triple digit temperatures dominate the Central California Interior. First, the ridge pattern that had been rather stationary for a while will begin shifting east and over the West toward the weekend.
647 PM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021 H5 analysis from earlier this morning had high pressure anchored off the Carolina coast. This area of high pressure extended west across the southeastern CONUS. Northwest of this feature, closed low pressure was located over northern Manitoba with a trough of low pressure extending south southeast into Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. West of this feature, high pressure was anchored off the coast of Washington with a ridge extending into southeastern Alaska. At the surface, a weak cold front extended from the arrowhead of Minnesota, into east central Nebraska and northwestern Kansas. Lows tonight will be seasonal with readings in the lower 60s.
A couple of early evening showers well inland developed along a weak trough axis, and dissipated by sunset. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from 12AM-3AM for inland New Hanover county as high tide will once again bring minor flooding to downtown ILM and the lower Cape Fear. High pressure will remain in control of area weather through the period, resulting in typical summer weather. Mins tonight and Thursday night will fall to the low to mid 70s with highs Thursday in the lower 90s except upper 80s nearer the coast.
(This afternoon through Thursday night) An upper level trough is over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest with upper ridging over New Mexico and Texas. Temperatures today are expected to be cooler than yesterday with highs in the lower to mid 90s across most of the Permian Basin and Southeast New Mexico. Temperatures on Thursday are expected to be a little cooler than today with continuing rain and storm chances across most of the area.
926 PM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021 The mid-level anticyclone remains in place across the the Southeast, maintaining hot and humid conditions throughout the Mid-South. /issued 310 PM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021/ Skies are mostly sunny with temperatures in the low to mid 90s. High pressure remains along the Tennessee/North Carolina border. The high will not move much tonight with dry weather continuing.
High temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s with lows in the low to mid 70s. Low temperatures will generally be in the lower to mid seventies.
807 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021 Warmth, humidity, and periodic showers and thunderstorms can be expected until cold frontal passage late this week.
523 PM MDT Wed Aug 11 2021 Upper air analysis shows an upper low over Manitoba, with the upper ridge over the west coast, and northwest flow aloft over our region. This will lead to slightly cooler temperatures Thursday and a higher relative humidities.
A cold front is in the progress of crossing northeast Wisconsin this afternoon, triggering a round of potential severe weather. Thursday Night Through Wednesday Much quieter conditions will come into place for the extended as high pressure builds in across the region.
A disturbance over southwest Arizona will exit today, allowing the ridge over the western US to build into place.
601 PM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021 (This evening through Thursday) Mainly hot and dry conditions will continue across the area into Thursday as upper level ridging dominates. Showers and thunderstorms may develop across the higher terrain to our south and west late this afternoon and early evening. Otherwise, dry weather will prevail the next 24 hours, with lows tonight in the lower and middle 70s, with highs tomorrow mainly in the upper 90s.
701 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021 High pressure will prevail across the area into the upcoming weekend.
High pressure continues to build across NV bringing hotter weather with above normal temperatures. Moisture will be moved into the region by the high pressure system starting today.
One more day of heat, before cooler and drier air returns. The previously mentioned cold front could provide a focus for thunderstorm development late this afternoon and evening. This will bring heat indices into the upper 80s and 90s, with a few locations feeling like the low 100s.
The highest rain chances will focus along the Treasure Coast and Lake Okeechobee, with slightly lower rain chances across the north.
1106 PM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021 This morning's cold front has cleared the CWA and with it goes the threat for showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will slide eastward south of the forecast area tonight and winds will become more SW, which will increase the moisture slightly into the area before another cold front passes across the forecast area from northwest to southeast overnight into the early morning. Much drier air will move into the forecast area behind the front with dewpoints falling into the 40s by tomorrow night which will set the stage for a very pleasant night, if not a bit on the cool side, with low temperatures in the low to mid 50s for most, with upper 50s for the core Twin Cities metro.
As temperatures climb into the low to mid 90s, this will result in heat indices around 105-110 degrees for a good portion of the forecast area. Lows will drop into the lower to mid 70s.
242 AM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021 Weak cold front crossing the area this hour is clearly depicted on radar imagery and evidenced by push of stronger northerly sfc flow and slightly cooler temperatures.
High pressure moves into the area today with skies clearing.
204 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 Warmth, humidity, and periodic showers and thunderstorms can be expected until cold frontal passage late this week. SB CAPE values in the afternoon look to top the 3500 J/KG range at many spots with dew points topping in the lower 70s at many locations.
Diurnally driven thunderstorm chances exist again today into tonight with similar conditions from yesterday continuing across the high plains. A pool of moisture reinforced by prevailing southerlies will keep surface dewpoints generally up into the lower/mid 60s(F) across central and much of southwest Kansas, providing sufficient instability with MLCAPE values upward of 1500 to 2000 J/kg.
1254 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 Warmth, humidity, and periodic showers and thunderstorms can be expected until cold frontal passage late this week. SB CAPE values in the afternoon look to top the 3500 J/KG range at many spots with dew points topping in the lower 70s at many locations.
/NEW/ /Through Thursday night/ The doldrums of summer will continue across the Lone Star State through Thursday with upper level high pressure remaining in place.
954 PM MDT Wed Aug 11 2021 Warm and dry conditions will continue today through Thursday morning as high pressure strengthens over the western CONUS. Wind this afternoon should generally remain below critical fire weather values, but still have low minimum relative humidity across the lower elevations, especially southern areas. On Thursday a weak cold front will try to push in from the northeast. This will lead to slightly cooler temperatures and elevated relative humidity values across areas east of the Divide.
251 AM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021 A cold front was analyzed from Buffalo WY, through Custer SD and Aberdeen SD. Today, some of the cooler air across the Northern Plains will push into western NE as a cold front advances quickly south this morning and stalls out near the NE/KS border.
Expect a break in the action for all but the far south of Lower Michigan this afternoon then one more round of storms is expected along the cold front tonight.
A trough of low pressure will move by to the north which will swing drier and cooler air southward in its wake. Along and just ahead of this surge of cooler and drier air there is a small wedge of elevated moisture around 10 kft which could squeeze out a sprinkle or very light shower, with the better chances closer to highway 14 this morning.
1245 AM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021 (This evening through Thursday) Mainly hot and dry conditions will continue across the area into Thursday as upper level ridging dominates. Showers and thunderstorms may develop across the higher terrain to our south and west late this afternoon and early evening. Otherwise, dry weather will prevail the next 24 hours, with lows tonight in the lower and middle 70s, with highs tomorrow mainly in the upper 90s.
More cloud cover in western sections will keep highs cooler.
The pattern begins to change tomorrow however as mid level flow becomes more amplified and the upper ridge begins to break down. An upper trof will begin to dig across the Northern Plains and into the Great Lakes Region, allowing a frontal boundary to sag south across Kansas by tomorrow afternoon.
1037 PM MDT Wed Aug 11 2021 Upper air analysis shows an upper low over Manitoba, with the upper ridge over the west coast, and northwest flow aloft over our region. This will lead to slightly cooler temperatures Thursday and a higher relative humidities.
Cancelled Coastal Flood Advisory for the Lower Cape Fear Minor Coastal Flooding. 5 ft MLLW threshold for minor coastal flooding along the Lower Cape Fear River from ILM south, will not be met at the high tide early this morning. A couple of early evening showers well inland developed along a weak trough axis, and dissipated by sunset. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from 12AM-3AM for inland New Hanover county as high tide will once again bring minor flooding to downtown ILM and the lower Cape Fear. High pressure will remain in control of area weather through the period, resulting in typical summer weather. Mins tonight and Thursday night will fall to the low to mid 70s with highs Thursday in the lower 90s except upper 80s nearer the coast.
High pressure will continue to build over the northern Pacific today. Expect similar temperatures as Wednesday over western Montana but a couple degrees warmer in north-central Idaho.
Not real confident on the later redevelopment, but will keep the low PoPs in for later tonight but will bump the chance PoP areas in the mountains down to slight chance. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 73 92 73 92 / 40 20 50 20 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 93 73 91 72 91 / 40 20 50 20 70 Oak Ridge, TN 92 72 90 71 90 / 40 20 50 20 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 70 90 69 89 / 40 20 50 30 80.
945 PM MDT Wed Aug 11 2021 Cold front has moved through Billings and is heading into the foothills at this time. BT Cold front is heading this way, just about to move through Great Falls at this time. Thursday will be dry and much cooler with temperatures in the 75 to 85 degree range. Chambers Ridge of high pressure moves in from the west and brings back the heat with it.
427 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 Warmth, humidity, and periodic showers and thunderstorms can be expected until cold frontal passage late this week. SB CAPE values in the afternoon look to top the 3500 J/KG range at many spots with dew points topping in the lower 70s at many locations.
1216 AM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021 H5 analysis from earlier this morning had high pressure anchored off the Carolina coast. This area of high pressure extended west across the southeastern CONUS. Northwest of this feature, closed low pressure was located over northern Manitoba with a trough of low pressure extending south southeast into Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. West of this feature, high pressure was anchored off the coast of Washington with a ridge extending into southeastern Alaska. At the surface, a weak cold front extended from the arrowhead of Minnesota, into east central Nebraska and northwestern Kansas. Lows tonight will be seasonal with readings in the lower 60s.
Muggy conditions, with nearly warm night time lows in the low/mid 70s are expected.
349 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 High pressure remains anchored off the Mid Atlantic today. A cold front will drop south across the area over the weekend. That said, the upper ridge will be a tad stronger and closer to the local area today which will result in another extremely hot and humid afternoon with high temps in the mid to upper 90s. Weak subsidence associated with the upper ridge is expected to keep a lid on convection today with only slight chance PoPs across the far western counties.
A cold front pushing south into the region late this afternoon and evening, will bring a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall.
If this scenario does play out, debris clouds could blanket our southern counties by early afternoon, but unless we have more widespread storms earlier in the afternoon, the air mass should be such that we'll still have several places that will get into the low triple digits and very close to criteria.
124 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 High pressure will prevail across the area into the upcoming weekend.
/issued 926 PM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021/ The mid-level anticyclone remains in place across the the Southeast, maintaining hot and humid conditions throughout the Mid-South. /issued 310 PM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021/ Skies are mostly sunny with temperatures in the low to mid 90s. High pressure remains along the Tennessee/North Carolina border. The high will not move much tonight with dry weather continuing.
228 AM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021 In the wake of the cold front passage last evening, weak energy dropping into the area in northwest flow has allowed isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to develop over areas east of Billings this morning. Otherwise, today will be much cooler than yesterday, with highs from 75 to 85 degrees, with lighter easterly winds for most locations.
High pressure will remain to the east of AR, providing S/SW winds on Thursday.
Based on 925 mb temps the high temps will end up closer to normal.
/Issued 1115 PM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021/ /Through Thursday night/ The doldrums of summer will continue across the Lone Star State through Thursday with upper level high pressure remaining in place.
Mean layer ridging is currently extending acorss the Gulf Coast states, which is supporting moderate northeast to east breezes across the island chain and surrounding coastal waters. 89 inches which is the highest we have seen since yesterday morning. A few showers have been able to capitalize on the ample CAPE and negligible inhibition this evening, especially near the Lower Keys and in the Straits of Florida despite the drier air. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s, with dewpoints in the mid 70s. Ridging will be the main influence on our weather through tomorrow.
Although the upper ridge will begin to slowly weaken over Alabama in the short term, weak flat ridging currently persists. SE to S flow continues in the lower levels as the last bit of W Atlantic surface ridging will be slowly degrading as Fred gets closer to the E Gulf of Mexico.
GOES IR shows the longwave trof continuing to spin across south central Canada with one front strung across the southern portions of the CWA with some convection firing at the moment. The rest of the CWA will be cooler. FRIDAY, THE WEEKEND and BEYOND The cooler and drier air will have finally engulfed the entire CWA and all can anticipate pleasant highs in the 80s with dewpoints in the 50s and 60s.
High pressure will be dominant over the region during the short term period.
A cold front pushing south into the region late this afternoon and evening, will bring a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall. Some lingering showers or storms are possible on Friday, but a trend to drier and cooler weather will be underway, as high pressure builds in from the northwest to start the weekend. 2 am surface map indicated a pre frontal trof from southeast WI into south central IA. It will be another hot and humid day, though debris clouds give some uncertainty to the high temp forecast. The next good chance for storms will be tied to the cold front, pressing south into east central IA and northwest IL late this afternoon. This, along with highs in the low to mid 80s signal the start of a more comfortable weather pattern.
-Kredensor A cooler airmass will hold temperatures into the 70s and 80s across North-central Montana today.
Cooler weather arrives for the weekend Temperatures were mild early this morning with most locations in the upper 70s to lower 80s with a steady south wind. By Friday morning, a cold front will likely be somewhere near or just north of the CWA. High pressure then builds down into the Great Lakes region for the weekend with northeast surface winds ushering in lower dewpoints.
649 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 High pressure remains anchored off the Mid Atlantic today. A cold front will drop south across the area over the weekend. Temperatures remain quite warm in the low to upper 70s. That said, the upper ridge will be a tad stronger and closer to the local area today which will result in another extremely hot and humid afternoon with high temps in the mid to upper 90s. Weak subsidence associated with the upper ridge is expected to keep a lid on convection today with only slight chance PoPs across the far western counties.
A trough of low pressure will move by to the north which will swing drier and cooler air southward in its wake. Along and just ahead of this surge of cooler and drier air there is a small wedge of elevated moisture around 10 kft which could squeeze out a sprinkle or very light shower, with the better chances closer to highway 14 this morning. High pressure settles south tonight and will bring a much cooler morning on Friday morning. With lighter winds and mostly clear skies lows in some of the lower spots around the area could sneak into the upper 40s, but overall looking at lows mostly in the lower to mid 50s. Upper level ridging will gradually build into the area which will bring increasing warmth and humidity.
Up next, we're seeing increasing confidence in another inverted trough scenario this weekend. As the current high east of the area breaks down under the broad trough digging into the Midwest, A strong ridge will develop through the Great Basin with a new high center consolidating over Nevada and Utah. First, it will make for favorable conditions for strong organized outflow from the Mogollon Rim through eastern areas and into the lower deserts.
The synoptic cold front should enter the area around midday, but depending on the timing and intensity of the outflow boundary, we may struggle to destabilize ahead of it for the afternoon. The CAM guidance is not bullish on redevelopment along or ahead of the cold front in the afternoon, but the synoptic guidance has more development. The cold front should clear the entire area Friday evening.
(Today through Friday afternoon) WV imagery shows the upper-level ridge extending from the PacNW down through Texas and through the Gulf Coast states. almost an inverted trough. Area radars show weak convection ongoing this AM, and trough placement will favor NW zones through at least Friday. Attendant w/this increased rainfall and cloud cover will be cooler temperatures, in line w/decreasing thicknesses that have been well- advertised in the models this past week or so, and in keeping w/the non-summer West Texas and Southeast New Mexico has had so far.
Diurnally driven thunderstorm chances exist again today into tonight with similar conditions from yesterday continuing across the high plains. A pool of moisture reinforced by prevailing southerlies will keep surface dewpoints generally up into the lower/mid 60s(F) across central and much of southwest Kansas, providing sufficient instability with MLCAPE values upward of 1500 to 2000 J/kg. Another round of diurnally thunderstorms will be possible Friday as medium range models indicate an upper level perturbation within the larger scale trough across the Great Lakes dipping southeast across the Upper Midwest, in turn helping nudge the near stationary frontal boundary situated across western/central Kansas a little farther south toward the Oklahoma border.
Surface analysis this morning places a cold front from the Great Lakes Region back through the Upper Midwest and into the Rockies. Meanwhile, GOES-16 Satellite trends continue to indicate an upper level ridge axis centered over the Southeast United States. A warm and moist airmass remains present over the Lower Mississippi Valley as low level moisture is advected up from the Gulf of Mexico on the back side of the upper level ridge axis. Another hot day is expected across the Mid-South today as the upper level ridge axis remains in place across the region. Short term models indicate the aforementioned cold front over the Upper Midwest will drop into the Lower Mississippi Valley Friday night. Thankfully, slightly cooler air is anticipated to alleviate any heat headlines for now during this period.
404 AM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021 High pressure will be dominant over the region during the short term period.
Upper level high pressure centered off the NC coast will continue as a dominating influence on our weather through tonight. An impulse will move through a broad upper level trough over the north central and northeast CONUS and will drag the trough slightly southward, impinging on the high. This will support a southward moving cold front which should be approaching the Ohio River at the end of the day. Weakening of the upper high could allow for a bit more in the way of scattered showers/thunderstorms to develop. To start the period, a northern stream trough will position itself over the Upper Great Lakes while a ridge continues to dominate the western portion of the CONUS. At the surface a cold front stretching from the Northeast back towards the Middle Mississippi Valley will make its way toward the Commonwealth.
79 Previous Discussion: /Through Thursday night/ The doldrums of summer will continue across the Lone Star State through Thursday with upper level high pressure remaining in place. The upper level ridge will continue to weaken as a trough slowly dig into the Southern Plains. /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ The low level jet is a bit weaker tonight than it has been the past several nights.