Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cold front moves through NE OK terminals and possibly far NW AR terminals late tonight with scattered showers and storms gradually developing. /Issued 259 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021/ It will be another hot and humid day across the region today before a substantial cold front arrives Monday morning. Highs today will be a couple degrees warmer than yesterday with gusty southerly winds ushering in more low level moisture in advance of the front.
609 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 (Today and tonight) Our area remains on the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge, which is centered over the Desert Southwest. With some strengthening of the 850mb thermal ridge, highs today are expected to be 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday.
Low pressure has dug a bit further into northeast SD than originally expected. A low pressure system centered over eastern SD attm will steadily track eastward into southern MN through mid afternoon. Winds should increase from the northwest at 15 to 25 mph through this afternoon, following cold frontal passage. Cooler, drier, and more stable air will steadily filter into the area from southern Manitoba. Otherwise, daytime high temperatures should range from the middle 60s into the lower 70s across he area. expect clearing skies and light northerly winds, with nighttime temperatures cooling into the lower 40s across the area, and with temperatures dropping into upper 30s along the hiline. Daytime highs with range from the lower 60s over the Lake of the Woods and Red Lakes Region to the upper 60s in southeast ND.
Models and latest satellite data show a ridge and associated high pressure located over the NW Atlantic, with the western edge of the reach gradually eroding away and drifting NE, away from the east coast of the Florida peninsula. High temperatures each afternoon will be in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices potentially soaring into triple digits today.
A strong ridge of high pressure will continue to result in excessive heat today. The upper high has shifted southward from the Four Corners into west central Arizona over the last 24 hours. An Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect through 9 PM MST this evening for much of the lower elevations of our forecast area. The models show the upper high will remain anchored across central and southern Arizona through Monday, along with PW values between 0.
Low pressure approaching the California coast on Monday will amplify the onshore flow and help to push cooling farther inland through the first half of the week.
Our much anticipated precipitation will be working its way across the region throughout the day ahead of a strong cold front. Winds behind the cold front will be breezy through the afternoon and into the overnight hours as strong CAA spreads across the area into Monday.
A cold front will move through the Panhandles tonight bringing northeast winds at 15 to 25 knots with higher gusts. This trough should be near a Guymon, OK to Vega, Tx line by late this afternoon. This trough could spark an isolated thunderstorm to two late this afternoon, but it looks like the moisture and lift will be lacking, so we think the better chance of showers and thunderstorms will come tonight with the cold front that moves south across the region. There may be a few lingering showers and thunderstorms across the far eastern Panhandles Monday morning, but for the most part Monday looks dry and much cooler.
The cold front has just pushed through KPHP and is continuing southeastward. Showers will decrease tonight, then dry weather is expected through the first half of the work week, as upper ridging builds in across the western CONUS. Highs on Monday will be similar to today, then warmer weather will return.
A cold front will push southward across the region today in the wake of this wave with soaring hot temperatures just ahead of the front. A welcome relief from the heat will arrive on Monday with much cooler air pushing southward across Kansas, as another upper level wave pivots across Kansas.
A strong cold front will push southeast through the area during the day on Monday.
Concur with the NAM/GFS/ECMWF deterministic runs which predict a weak upper trough with N-S axis over the ERN CWA today, then offshore Monday.
With good moisture across the area, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with below normal afternoon highs and slightly warmer than normal morning lows.
244 AM PDT Sun Jun 20 2021 High pressure over the region will provide another day of very hot temperatures over the Central California Interior.
& 925mb into the low 20 degrees C). This will support highs closer to normals in the low-mid 90s, with areas NW of the Natchez Trace slightly warmer. As a mean longwave trough digs down through south-central Canada, a low pressure system will move across the Great Lakes & drag a cold front through the Great Lakes/mid-MS Valley & Ozarks. Combined with clouds, lows will near or slightly above normal in the low-mid 70s.
Short term guidance is in good agreement depicting the upper level pattern at 12Z Sunday consisting of a 591 dm cut-off ridge over the Desert Southwest/far northwestern Mexico, and broad northwesterly flow across the northern plains southward to the northern edge of the southern plains. Temperatures will rapidly increase into the upper 90s/low 100s ahead of this front, before strong north winds behind the front put a halt to daytime heating and usher in much cooler air. A much more likely opportunity will be later around 06Z Monday through the morning when the low-level jet runs over the 700-mb front within a band of 1500-2000 J/Kg of MUCAPE. Sunday night lows will drop into the low 60s to upper 50s as continued cold advection and potential thunderstorm outflow allow temperatures to plummet.
Clouds should help keep temperatures in the 80s for most cities, though if skies clear, some sites could push into the low 90s. Claudette heads off the east coast Monday morning as the upper trough will be digging deeper across the midwest, sweeping a cold front and storms into the Tennessee Valley by Monday afternoon. While the best potential for the strongest winds will be along the cold front where organized updrafts are more likely to sustain themselves, there could be strong cells intermittently throughout the day. The exact placement of higher amounts will be determined by the speed and orientation of the cold front.
Discrete thunderstorms will begin to develop along the cold front, extending from central Kansas into northern Missouri during the late afternoon and early evening along an axis of significant instability. However, this severe storm threat looks relatively brief as the atmosphere becomes increasingly capped into the late evening and overnight hours, which should lead to a gradual weakening trend as the storms push southeastwards into the Highway 54 corridor. Much cooler and drier air will usher into the area behind the cold front, with high temperatures in the 70s likely occuring early in the morning and temperatures continually dropping throughout the day. Temperatures will continue to cool into Monday night, with lows bottoming out in the low to mid 50s.
Look for very warm/hot and dry conditions as the persistent ridging continues its drift westward shift. A break from the heat may come mid-week when a low pressure system tries to nudge the ridge out of our region.
For the rest of today, a cold front is progged to make its way southeast reaching north central Kansas by early this afternoon. As the cold front marches across the forecast area this afternoon, a weakening cap and increased lift along the boundary will likely lead to convective initiation around 5-7pm. The position of the cold front by late this afternoon will determine which areas will be impacted by storms; at this time it appears the front will be draped from Hiawatha to Council Grove with the best chance for severe storms southeast of this line. Temperatures will be much cooler behind the front with CAA and morning cloud cover keeping highs in the mid to upper 70s.
1015 AM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021 Atlantic ridge axis resides across south Florida this morning with a deep layer of SW flow in place across central Florida as the center of TD Claudette moves across northern GA. Highs this afternoon will reach the low 90s, even as skies remain partly to mostly cloudy. Given the high humidity (dew points in the low to mid 70s) peak heat index values of 100-103 are expected. TEMPO groups were added to all terminals, with the highest impacts likely at MLB/VRB/FPR/SUA. The Atlantic ridge axis is located across south FL today, resulting south to south-southwest winds around 10-15 knots for our local Atlantic waters in Central FL.
Upper ridging over the western/southwestern U. NE Montana will see a flattening of the upper ridge pattern late in the week, with ensembles beginning to show signs of more active weather, but there is large spread in solutions at larger time scales and so it is too soon to determine just when the ridge pattern may break.
611 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 Key messages: - One last hot and humid day (for this stretch anyway) before a cold front moves through tonight, cooling things down through the middle of the week. - Severe storms are possible late this afternoon and this evening as that cold front moves through the area. A strong cold front is expected to move through the area late this afternoon into this evening. Much cooler temperatures will move into the area behind this front with an area of high pressure settling across the middle of the country. The end result of this is that highs on Monday will top out in the low to mid 70s.
The region starts out under northwest flow aloft with a trough over the eastern US and a ridge over the western US.
Temperatures then trend warmer through mid week. Skies will gradually clear overnight as high pressure settles in.
Monday, we will see a mid-level trough axis kick out into the Plains. This will help to send a cold front and low pressure system toward the Ohio Valley. The beginning of the extended looks to be very active, as a potent cold front moves through the area.
Skies will quickly clear out later this evening and overnight, as high pressure begins to build into the Northern Rockies. Warm and dry weather returns across the Northern Rockies Monday, as high pressure amplifies across the region.
Still looking at the potential for some strong to severe storms Monday afternoon and evening ahead of the cold front, with the main threat being damaging wind gusts, but the flooding threat continues to slowly increase.
346 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 (Issued 446 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021) Tonight and Monday: Widespread rain and clouds continue to hold back any potential instability ahead of approaching low pressure and associated cold front. Any showers/storms that do survive through southern Wisconsin are expected to exit to the east by 12 or 1 am as the cold front pushes through. Cooler temps aloft and the lingering clouds will result in temps not getting out of the 60s most locations, though a few places east may crack 70.
Outside of the storms that are developing along the lake-breeze, convection elsewhere will struggle to organize as a thermal ridge shifts eastward across the upper Ohio valley. A strong cold front will push southeast through the area during the day on Monday.
This coupled with a strengthening/digging upper level trough over the central into eastern CONUS Monday will help to drive a "cold" front southeast across the central U. The High Surf Advisory remains in place through this evening for surf heights upwards of 5 to 7ft.
as the mid-latitude westerlies shift northward in response to height rises assoc/w an amplifying ridge over the Desert Southwest, southern/central Rockies, and southern/central Plains.
(This evening through Monday) A cold front will enter northwestern OK later this afternoon and pass through southeastern OK by late Monday afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening in northern OK, given the high temperatures and convergence along the front. These will be aided by the southern edge of a large-scale mid- level trough moving through the upper Mississippi River valley/lower Missouri River valley.
Expect the shower activity to become more widely scattered late this afternoon, and diminish altogether this evening, as the trough moves southeastward out of the area.
251 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 Widespread light to moderate rainfall continues to work its way toward north-central MN on the head of a mid level s/w trough this afternoon. Scattered showers closely follow behind this deformation zone precip, owing in part to the H7 cold front/CAA. A dry, cool air mass moves into the area amidst northerly flow tonight noted by dew points dropping into the lower to mid 30s. CAA from the post frontal air mass will still make for a cool Monday morning with lows in the lower 40s and a lingering breeze.
Forecast Summary: Cold front passing through the area this evening will bring cooler and drier air to the region to start the workweek.
Winds have have shifted to W in the areas behind the low, but a tropical airmass will remain in place through the remainder of the period. On Monday night, an upper level longwave trough and an associated surface front cold front will approach the area from the northwest.
Upper ridging will build over the Northern Rockies tonight through Monday to initiate a dry warming trend.
322 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 Visible satellite imagery is showing clear sky across the majority of the region outside of a narrow scattered cu field focused along the surface cold front over northcentral Kansas into southeast Nebraska. The cold front is expected to continue pushing southward across our area exiting the area early this evening, so in the meantime the area along the boundary, basically southeast of Dodge City will need to be monitored for any surface convergence and heating triggered thunderstorms for which there may easily be a localized hail risk.
1222 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 (Today and tonight) Our area remains on the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge, which is centered over the Desert Southwest. With some strengthening of the 850mb thermal ridge, highs today are expected to be 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday.
A deepening mid/upper trough will bring a cold front toward the region Monday, reaching our Delta counties during the evening.
242 PM MDT Sun Jun 20 2021 Current surface observations across the region show the stationary cold front near the Snowy Range and Sierra Madre Range across southeast Wyoming, with the boundary extending southward along the Front Range foothills across Colorado. This feature will continue digging southeast into southern and eastern Wyoming over the next several hours, which will eventually force the cold front south into Colorado tonight. Monday will be pleasant as a drier and cooler airmass moves into the region. Highs will struggle to reach the mid 70s across most areas with locations along I-80 likely remaining in the low 70s.
Cooler and drier air will then settle in Monday through the middle of the week. A second line of convection is still expected to develop along a cold front in eastern IA/WI this evening, with the bulk of CAMs bringing this east in the 5-9z Monday AM time window. Expectations at this time are for this higher end gusts within the weakening MCS/QLCS to be more isolated and confined to areas mainly west of Interstate 69. A few showers may linger into Monday morning before the cold front exits to the east, especially along/east of I-69. Gusty northwest winds and cooler otherwise into the afternoon.
A cold front pushes through overnight and brings Monday morning showers with a pleasant start to the work week temperature-wise. Today, the upper pattern has slightly amplified with a broader trough east to west across the northern tier of the CONUS. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough is noted across the area from east of Marysville through the Manhattan area and becoming harder to define with daytime mixing taking place. The main cold front is over south central NE extending into north central KS. These likely contain the hail threat too with probably around quarter size hail considering the overall shear is forecast to remain under 40kts and freezing level above 14kft.
To the north, cold front moving across western Kansas and moving south at a decent rate. Decent north winds and a cooler air mass behind the front across Kansas this afternoon, cool enough to have some effect on temperatures north of the front. Gusty north winds and highs in the lower 90s on Monday north of the front, with highs in the mid and upper 90s ahead of the front.
The upper level pattern will bring in an upper level trough on Monday and behind it will be a period of northwest flow before the upper level high that is in the southwest US pushing into the area later in the week, however, it is quickly followed by another trough--not as strong as the one on Monday--comes into the area for the weekend. The cold front will move through the Mid-South beginning Monday afternoon, there may be some showers and thunderstorms developing out ahead of the front Monday morning and Monday afternoon as the front moves through the area. Behind the front the temperatures will be much cooler with some areas on Monday dropping into the 70s from highs in the 80s from earlier in the day.
326 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 Main concern in the short term is the potential for strong to marginally severe convection this evening in the vicinity of the slow moving surface cold front.
High pressure will remain centered over the Desert Southwest today, while a slightly cooler and more stable airmass spreads across northern and central Utah. The persistent ridge has temporarily retreated south into southern portions of the Desert Southwest this morning in a response to a weak and mostly dry front currently parked over southern Utah. As a result, temperatures in those locations will be up to 5F cooler than yesterday, merely very hot instead of in record territory. As the front exits the area and a trough approaches the Pacific coast, the ridge will reamplify over the area for Monday.
With that being said, given the much more moist environment sampled earlier in the 12z sounding, a few cloud streamers, especially along and north of the Lower and Middle Keys, may produce a few quick showers for the remainder of the afternoon. A dome of high pressure continues to reside in the Central Atlantic near Bermuda. This is resulting in broad ridging across the island chain.
TD Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 72 89 69 80 / 40 10 70 90 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 71 89 67 77 / 20 10 60 90 60 Oak Ridge, TN 88 71 88 65 77 / 20 10 60 90 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 66 88 65 75 / 20 20 50 80 60.
Monday, we will see a mid-level trough axis kick out into the Plains. This will help to send a cold front and low pressure system toward the Ohio Valley. After a soggy Monday night, lingering shower/storm activity, associated with the previously mentioned cold front, is expected to clear the I-64 corridor around sunrise and continue tapering southeastward, ending in the far southeast around or shortly after midday.
Expect cooler temperatures today and tomorrow under upper level northwesterly flow over Montana. To the west, a ridge builds in lee of a rex block just off the west coast. Temperatures will warm up this week and towards midweek, the ridge will broaden and flatten as the blocking pattern sets into place over the coast, thus the overall mid latitude synoptic flow will be slow to change.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): Upper level moisture courtesy of of Tropical Depression Dolores and a 500 mb trough will continue to provide a chance of showers and thunderstorms across central and eastern portions of deep south Texas this evening. The 500 mb trough that is draped across east Texas will begin to shift eastward tonight into Monday and slightly drier air will begin to filter in. Monday night, a cold front will move into central Texas, but remain well north of the CWA. Overnight conditions tonight and Monday will remain sultry with lows generally in the low 80s.
114 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 The main forecast challenges to start off the week include another round of moisture this evening into tonight and a big swing in temperatures with a cold front passage followed by a building ridge. A strong cold front quickly drops through the forecast area this morning, resulting in a switch to northerly winds and a quick uptick in speeds. As of 09z, the front was crossing the Black Hills and encroaching on the Pine Ridge. Throughout the day, a longwave trough digs into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. The wave will greatly increase forcing in the mid levels, while some upslope flow at H85 provides some lift in the lower levels. A large upper ridge dominates the synoptic pattern mid to late week for most of the central US.
1230 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 Key messages: - One last hot and humid day (for this stretch anyway) before a cold front moves through tonight, cooling things down through the middle of the week. - Severe storms are possible late this afternoon and this evening as that cold front moves through the area. A strong cold front is expected to move through the area late this afternoon into this evening. Much cooler temperatures will move into the area behind this front with an area of high pressure settling across the middle of the country. The end result of this is that highs on Monday will top out in the low to mid 70s.
250 PM MDT Sun Jun 20 2021 Current surface analysis shows one cold front well south of the region, with a secondary cold front moving into northern portions of the area now. Upper level analysis shows trough moving through the Northern Plains, with upper level jet from the Northern Rockies into portions of SD and NE. Much cooler air has settled across the area, with temps in the 60s and lower 70s. Cooler conditions will prevail through Monday as Canadian high pressure slides southeast over the area. Lows will drop into the 40s in many areas, with some 30s over the higher Black Hills.
VFR conditions are expected to continue through tonight with MVFR conditions becoming more prevalent behind a cold front that will be working across the area late tonight into Monday as widespread showers and storms develop. Cold front moves through NE OK terminals and possibly far NW AR terminals late tonight with scattered showers and storms gradually developing. /Issued 259 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021/ It will be another hot and humid day across the region today before a substantial cold front arrives Monday morning. Highs today will be a couple degrees warmer than yesterday with gusty southerly winds ushering in more low level moisture in advance of the front.
307 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 The much advertised cold front is still on track to bring much cooler.
Later tonight/early Monday, low clouds will increase as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
a re-enforcing cold front is forecast to drop south into the Plains overnight, ushering in moist upslope flow across the Plains. Much cooler air will filter in behind the frontal boundary as well. Overnight lows will be cooler, with 50s across the area. Areas across the Plains will be significantly cooler, with highs int he 60s to lower 70s.
220 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 A cold front was located over eastern Nebraska into western KS. Main focus in the short term will be with shower and thunderstorm chances later tonight into Monday and with cooler temperatures moving in. South central MO will have the highest readings around 80 before the front moves through. The rain should exit the area by Monday evening and with the cooler and drier air mass continuing to move into the region, temperatures will dip into the upper 40s to low 50s for lows.
Upper level trough will pass to our northeast today bringing breezy northwesterly winds and slightly cooler temperatures. Near record temperatures and a slight chance for thunderstorms expected on Monday with the ridge building in tonight.