Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The upper level low that moved through yesterday bringing light snowfall and a wintry mix at times across the area continues to track east. As the low pulls further away so to will these snow showers. Highs for today will remain below freezing. Knowing this we have adjusted the forecast towards the lower end of model guidance for temperatures tonight. Temperatures begin to bounce back as we start the work week with the high pressure sliding east as it modifies.
236 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022 Tight pressure gradient between a 1035 mb high over south- central Canada and low pressure in eastern Canada has led to gusty NW winds across E Iowa and NW Illinois today. A large area of Canadian high pressure will build into the Midwest tonight leading to cold conditions for late March standards.
Cyclonic flow aloft will hang around for at least Sunday morning before ridging starts to take hold. Gusty winds will linger through the morning before diminishing during the afternoon with high pressure moving in. Opted for a cooler forecast high to account for the clouds.
The eastern half of the CWA from roughly Lacon toward Effingham is blanketed by scattered to broken clouds, which has kept temperatures a little cooler in some of these locations. However, areawide temperatures are quite cool for late March with values sitting in the 30s to middle 40s, or about 15 degrees cooler than normal. Would not be surprised if a few of the usual cooler spots see upper teens. Upper ridging over the western CONUS will shift eastward going into the start of the new week, allowing southerly return flow to set up at the surface.
125 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022 (This afternoon through Sunday) The upper ridge over AZ and NM will continue to drift eastward through the weekend and be associated with hot conditions in southwestern OKlahoma and adjacent parts of Texas by Sunday afternoon. Easterly winds around the base of the ridge will exist over roughly the northern half of Oklahoma tonight and through Sunday. There will effectively by a front in the southern part of Oklahoma with increasing south winds in the south in response to a deepening surface pressure trough east of the Rockies. To the north of this boundary, easterly winds and more humid and cooler air will exist.
Weak cold front sagged into the I-20 area near Sweetwater and Abilene, but is dissipating and temperatures are rebounding quickly. More of the same tomorrow as the thermal ridge builds in even more.
Surface analysis late this morning places a weak cold front over Kentucky and Southern Missouri. GOES-16 Satellite trends indicate a few mid/high clouds moving over portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley with mostly sunny skies prevailing thus far. Overall forecast is in great shape as cooler air will filter in behind a cold front towards tonight. A relatively strong ridge remains in place over the west with 500 mb heights near the 97th percentile over the Desert Southwest. Strong, dry, northwesterly flow between these features will persist across the Mid-South today in the wake of a cold front.
Overnight lows will start off in the 30s mainly above freezing once again. Winds will move more southeasterly by sunrise 10-20mph behind a weak mid level disturbance with will have slightly cooler temperatures mainly in the 60s to low 70s for highs Sunday afternoon.
There may be a slight uptick in intensity this evening as the back edge of the upper trough moves through, but moisture depth is forecast to overall remain shallow. Temperatures so far in southern Michigan have been slow to fall below 32, though the risk for patchy icy spots on bridges/overpasses will increase toward daybreak under spotty bursts of snow as colder air continues to pour in. Where snow showers persist this weekend with temperatures below freezing, icing of pavement can occur most often on bridges/overpasses, and then more easily on the rest of pavement at night. -- Midweek Low Pressure System -- The global model ensembles have been persistent in developing a robust mid-latitude cyclone over the central Plains and Midwest in the middle of the week.
Upper ridging prevails through Sunday night with dry conditions expected Sun.
Lows tonight range from the lower 40s well inland to the lower 50s at the immediate coast. Highs on Sunday range from the lower 70s well inland and also at the coast while over the remainder of the area highs will mainly be 75 to 80.
As of 12z this morning a dry cold front was moving through the region. Models depict high pressure dominating the GOMEX and extending into the Florida peninsula. This will bring back afternoon highs in the low-mid 80s, and Even near 90 values around the Lake region.
1118 AM MDT Sat Mar 26 2022 Overnight GOES-W WV imagery showed the upper level ridge centered over the Intermountain West, with northwesterly flow downstream across the Rocky Mountains and High Plains. There are intervals of mid and high clouds topping the ridge and spreading southeast over the CWA. A weak surface boundary extended northwest to southeast over the high plains, with light northeasterly winds to the east and westerly winds to the west. The surface boundary will move little over the next 24 hours which will keep the cooler temperatures confined north of the Platte Valley with lower to mid 60s this afternoon. High temperatures to the south and west of the boundary will warm into the upper 60s and low 70s for lower elevations, with 40s and 50s for the higher elevations.
230 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022 Tight pressure gradient between a 1035 mb high over south- central Canada and low pressure in eastern Canada has led to gusty NW winds across E Iowa and NW Illinois today. A large area of Canadian high pressure will build into the Midwest tonight leading to cold conditions for late March standards.
High temperatures will peak Sunday, with valley locations reaching into the 70s, perhaps even the low 80s for low elevation areas along the Salmon River in Idaho County.
Otherwise forecast looked fine with highs mostly in the 50s into the 60s with cooler conditions E. Arthur Upper level ridging will prevail over the region through the weekend. Expected mid 60s west to mid 40s east, as ridge builds across the region today.
Cold and clear conditions expected tonight with high pressure set to allow text book diurnally driven radiational cooling overnight. Full to filtered sun expected tomorrow with highs a bit warmer than today with values in the 20s and 30s then lows in the single digits in NW MN to around 20 in SE ND with mixing and increasing clouds accounting for the warmer temps.
These conditions will continue throughout the day as an upper level ridge continues to build over the Intermountain- West and shift eastward towards the area.
1054 AM MDT Sat Mar 26 2022 Current surface analysis shows main frontal boundary remains south and west of the region, along the lee of the Rockies, with general area of high pressure stretching from south central Canada through the eastern Plains. Upper level analysis shows trough over the eastern US, with low pressure over the southern Great Lakes region. Ridge continues to build across the western US, with fast northwest flow starting to shift east of the area. Skies are generally partly cloudy, with some mid and high clouds spilling over the ridge.
As of 3 PM CDT, temperatures range from the middle 50s north, to the lower 60s south. A few locations in West Tennessee near the Tennessee River may reach Freezing towards Sunday morning. However, held off on upgrading a portion of the area to a Freeze Warning due to the limited duration of freezing temperatures late tonight across the aforementioned areas.
308 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022 Looking at quiet and cool early Spring conditions continuing through the remainder of the weekend, as weak high pressure slides east across the region tonight into Sunday. Speaking of dry air, mixing into this dry layer this afternoon has dropped mid-afternoon dew points into the lower single digits in some areas. Not only is this indicative of the dryness which any attempt at light precip would have to overcome, but it also signals a potential for cooler than guidance overnight lows given the light winds within the ridge axis. Highs Sunday will stay on the cool side of normal, with readings topping out slightly warmer than today, in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
244 PM MDT Sat Mar 26 2022 Strong H5 ridge continues to push slowly east across the western US during the next 24 hours, keeping weather tranquil and warm. With H7 temperatures peaking at +5 to +8C tomorrow, high temperatures will soar into the mid 70s for lower elevations, with even the higher mountain peaks approaching 40 degrees. This, along with the warmer temperatures mixing gusts down from aloft, will bring gustier sfc winds.
High pressure will begin to move out of the area on Sunday.
Even though skies are clear temps are slow to rise this morning within the cold air dome of high pressure across the region. High pressure continues to push into the area keeping winds breezy and skies mostly clear.
217 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022 High pressure over southern Canada will keep us dry and cool for the period. In the upper levels troughs will be over both coasts with high pressure centered over the Plains.
Southerly flow will continue tonight bringing warmer, moister air. Low temperatures Sunday morning will be a few degrees warmer than today. The upper level ridge will remain over Texas Sunday. The low level flow will become slightly more southerly, but there won't be significant changes to our weather. Temperatures will be around five degrees warmer than tonight.
233 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022 Tight pressure gradient between a 1035 mb high over south- central Canada and low pressure in eastern Canada has led to gusty NW winds across E Iowa and NW Illinois today. A large area of Canadian high pressure will build into the Midwest tonight leading to cold conditions for late March standards.
1213 PM EDT Sat Mar 26 2022 The light precipitation across our far NE has subsided as the upper low is now off over the eastern Great Lakes. Cool weather continues into the short term period as a tightly wrapped upper level low (ULL) currently spins over the Ohio Valley. An upper level ridge builds east over the Rockies, with cold NW flow persisting locally. High pressure builds southeast toward the region from Canada.
The light precipitation across our far NE has subsided as the upper low is now off over the eastern Great Lakes. Cool weather continues into the short term period as a tightly wrapped upper level low (ULL) currently spins over the Ohio Valley. An upper level ridge builds east over the Rockies, with cold NW flow persisting locally. High pressure builds southeast toward the region from Canada.
CAA will continue behind a second cold front that moved through the region early this morning. A fairly deep trough will push the ridge eastward through the midweek period before it pivots northward late in the week. At the surface the high will move offshore in the mid-week period, while a cold front will stall to north of the area late this week. lows near or just below climo, and highs near or just above climo) as the high remains in control.
Ridge of high pressure stretches from North Dakota into central Missouri this evening and the ridge axis is progged to slowly shift east across central Illinois overnight. Temperatures are on track to fall into the lower to mid 20s tonight. The eastern half of the CWA from roughly Lacon toward Effingham is blanketed by scattered to broken clouds, which has kept temperatures a little cooler in some of these locations. However, areawide temperatures are quite cool for late March with values sitting in the 30s to middle 40s, or about 15 degrees cooler than normal. Would not be surprised if a few of the usual cooler spots see upper teens. Upper ridging over the western CONUS will shift eastward going into the start of the new week, allowing southerly return flow to set up at the surface.
607 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022 Looking at quiet and cool early Spring conditions continuing through the remainder of the weekend, as weak high pressure slides east across the region tonight into Sunday. Speaking of dry air, mixing into this dry layer this afternoon has dropped mid-afternoon dew points into the lower single digits in some areas. Not only is this indicative of the dryness which any attempt at light precip would have to overcome, but it also signals a potential for cooler than guidance overnight lows given the light winds within the ridge axis. Highs Sunday will stay on the cool side of normal, with readings topping out slightly warmer than today, in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
One concern however is eastern Wisconsin remains in the thermal trof overnight, with a reinforcing push of low level cold air. Some of the high clouds over southern MN may also affect a part of the western CWA during the late night as well. Cyclonic flow aloft will hang around for at least Sunday morning before ridging starts to take hold. Gusty winds will linger through the morning before diminishing during the afternoon with high pressure moving in. Opted for a cooler forecast high to account for the clouds.
622 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022 (This afternoon through Sunday) The upper ridge over AZ and NM will continue to drift eastward through the weekend and be associated with hot conditions in southwestern OKlahoma and adjacent parts of Texas by Sunday afternoon. Easterly winds around the base of the ridge will exist over roughly the northern half of Oklahoma tonight and through Sunday. There will effectively by a front in the southern part of Oklahoma with increasing south winds in the south in response to a deepening surface pressure trough east of the Rockies. To the north of this boundary, easterly winds and more humid and cooler air will exist.
442 PM MDT Sat Mar 26 2022 Strong H5 ridge continues to push slowly east across the western US during the next 24 hours, keeping weather tranquil and warm. With H7 temperatures peaking at +5 to +8C tomorrow, high temperatures will soar into the mid 70s for lower elevations, with even the higher mountain peaks approaching 40 degrees. This, along with the warmer temperatures mixing gusts down from aloft, will bring gustier sfc winds.
619 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022 Upper level ridging across the western CONUS will keep northwest flow aloft through Sunday night. Conditions on Sunday will be similar today, however 850 mb temperatures will be slightly warmer across the western CWA as the upper level ridge slowly moves east. Areas to the east, did blend temperatures slightly cooler, as temperatures aloft won't be as warm, generally around 0 to 5 degrees at 850mb and in the upper 40s to low 50s at the sfc.
Colder low pressure away toward the northeast, and warmer high pressure away toward the southwest.
The upper ridge dampens slightly for Sunday and a surface pressure gradient form across the eastern plains creating a SE-NE wind regime.
405 PM MDT Sat Mar 26 2022 Upper ridging will be the dominant upper feature through the short term period. At the surface, a nearly stationary front will be waffling near the Kansas-Colorado border area, separating cooler air to the east and much warmer air to the west. Maintained the trend of a more western location with cooler upper 50s to lower 60s across most of the forecast area Sunday afternoon, but temperatures warming into the upper 60s to lower 70s across far western locations (along and west of Highway 59), with possibly even warmer temperatures there.
508 PM MDT Sat Mar 26 2022 Western CONUS ridge will build and slowly shift east as a deep upper trough digs in the eastern Pac. The exception will be over the WY BH tonight and possibly around the Pine Ridge area late as a stronger round of WAA ensues tonight, supporting isolated rain or snow showers. Upper ridge will shift east and allow warmer conds Sun with temps in the 50s and 60s (possibly lower 70s over far western Campbell county). Thicker cirrus will linger across the area on the front side of the ridge Sunday, limiting insolation and temp rises, esp across NW SD.
Lows tonight should be even warmer than those last night, in the 30s and 40s across the plains and 20s and 30s in the high country. Skies should remain clear enough overnight for cold air to pool in the mountain valleys, and moderate downslope flow will warm the lower foothills and adjacent plains. Heights will continue gradually rising tomorrow as the ridge moves slowly east. Temperatures will be warm, similar to those today, with highs in the upper 70s - maybe some lower 80s - across the plains and 40s and 50s in the high country. The flow aloft will be turning more westerly by evening as the ridge axis moves over western Colorado and the next trough approaches the west coast.
401 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022 Upper level ridging across the western CONUS will keep northwest flow aloft through Sunday night. Conditions on Sunday will be similar today, however 850 mb temperatures will be slightly warmer across the western CWA as the upper level ridge slowly moves east. Areas to the east, did blend temperatures slightly cooler, as temperatures aloft won't be as warm, generally around 0 to 5 degrees at 850mb and in the upper 40s to low 50s at the sfc.
Highlights: ** Continued below normal temperatures, with below freezing temperatures tonight ** Light scattered snow/rain showers to continue through this evening Broad upper level troughing has remained to the NE of Indiana throughout today, and will continue over through most of tonight. These scattered showers have lead to slightly a cooler surface layer, further enforcing precipitation through a shallower PBL. Expect temperatures to be in the low 40s with a significant cool off into the low 20s overnight. Temperatures will be on a warming trend for the first half of the work week as upper NW flow weakens and ridging moves in.
The low moisture content surrounding the region coupled with limited lift and instability will inhibit shower development.
High pressure over the region will bring sunny but cooler conditions over the weekend.
High pressure will result in dry conditions through Sunday with continued record warm temperatures through the weekend.
Upper ridging will be slowly building in from the west will lead to a warmer night and Sunday. In the shorter term dewpoints mixed out with the gusty southwest winds into the lower to mid 40s well inland while near the coast lower 60s held sway.
Breezy winds into early evening ascd with a dry cold front will diminish over the next hour or so, leaving behind clear skies, and cooler than normal temperatures. Upstream high pressure wl build east towards FL. High pressure remains the primary feature locally, maintaining northwesterly winds and transport of very dry air to ECFL. Afternoon highs will be cooler than normal once again, upper 70s to around 80, but with dewpoints dropping into the mid 30s during the afternoon it will feel quite nice. West winds 15-20 knots across the nearshore waters and up to 20-25 knots across the offshore waters tonight as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure developing in the GOMEX and a low off the northeast seaboard.
Tight pressure gradient between a 1035 mb high over south- central Canada and low pressure in eastern Canada has led to gusty NW winds across E Iowa and NW Illinois today. A large area of Canadian high pressure will build into the Midwest tonight leading to cold conditions for late March standards.
During the next 24 hours an upper ridge slips from the Great Basin to anchored by a southwest Quebec, Canada low. At the surface sprawling high pressure centered in the central Gulf of Mexico this evening shifts to the east Gulf late Sun. As the center of the high approaches the gradient relaxes and allows onshore flow to set up. Winds then slowly veer as high pressure moves out of FL and across the Atlantic.
854 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022 Surface analysis this evening shows the frontal boundary which helped usher in some cooler, drier, and breezy conditions today is positioned well to the south over the Northern Gulf of Mexico. High pressure has settled into the area and is centered to our west over the Mid MS valley. Expect a window overnight where temperatures, mainly north of the TN River, will drop below freezing for a couple of hours. Gradient winds will lessen by early morning on Sunday, and the upper trough axis currently sitting over the Atlantic Coast will shift east. A broad upper ridge will slowly stretch east through the Rockies, and moisture return will begin to increase over the ArkLaTex region.
The main concern during the overnight period will be the possibility of frost/freezing conditions as temperatures drop near or below the freezing mark, especially north of the TN River. Despite strong continental flow, afternoon temperatures have risen into the lower 60s across much of the area under abundant sunshine. Gradient winds will lessen by early morning on Sunday, and the upper trough axis currently sitting over the Atlantic Coast will shift east. A broad upper ridge will slowly stretch east through the Rockies, and moisture return will begin to increase over the ArkLaTex region.
536 PM MDT Sat Mar 26 2022 Upper ridging will be the dominant upper feature through the short term period. At the surface, a nearly stationary front will be waffling near the Kansas-Colorado border area, separating cooler air to the east and much warmer air to the west. Maintained the trend of a more western location with cooler upper 50s to lower 60s across most of the forecast area Sunday afternoon, but temperatures warming into the upper 60s to lower 70s across far western locations (along and west of Highway 59), with possibly even warmer temperatures there.
High pressure over southern Canada will keep us dry and cool for the period. In the upper levels troughs will be over both coasts with high pressure centered over the Plains.
Observations are showing significant impacts from reduced visibility and moderate snow showers along the ridges as bands hit the higher terrain and become enhanced. Temperatures will continue to fall through the night assisting in accumulation potential, mainly north and along the ridges. Snowfall accumulations will be more prominent in the higher elevations where thermal profiles and cooler ground temperatures will better support accumulation along with topographic enhancement. Lake enhanced snow showers are expected through the day Sunday with CAA in NW flow, with accumulating snow favoring the I-80 corridor and the higher terrain. Snow showers will slowly diminish southwest to northeast through the day and accumulation of snow will lessen due to increasing high pressure and an intrusion of drier air. By Monday night, High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature with an Arctic airmass in place passing through.
Highs look to rebound back into the lower 40s, maybe a few mid 40s for much of the area on Monday but easterly flow will keep areas near the lake in the 30s. cms Unseasonably cold conditions will continue into Monday on N/NE flow, with highs still struggling to reach the low 40s (mid 30s) in northeast Illinois (near Lake Michigan).
High pressure and a dry airmass will build into the region tonight into Monday.
Northwesterly flow aloft prevails through the near term period as a large upper-level trough over the Eastern US slowly pushes off the coast and an upper-level ridge builds over the central US. At the surface, our region is positioned between high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and another high moving towards the Great Lakes region. Highs on Sunday will range from the low 70s well inland and along the immediate coast to upper 70s to around 80 elsewhere. Highs will increase to the low 80s for most locations on Monday.
Southwest flow opens up today as the ridge begins shifting east. We will see some clouds along with some gusty downslope winds across the Lower Snake Plain and Magic Valley southward. Precipitation amounts look very light, with the highest liquid amounts being across the Sawtooths and Frank Church Wilderness at 0. Some of the highest peaks and ridges should see 1-2", which is supported by the "most likely" forecast and probabilistic snowfall forecasts.