Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper level low currently over northeastern New Mexico will slowly move into the northern Texas Panhandle this afternoon and then into southwestern Kansas this evening. With the proximity of the low to the region, we will be under strongly meridional flow aloft. Additionally, a short wave will be rotating around the base of the trough this afternoon. Furthermore, temperatures are expected to be a few degrees cooler today with expected cloud cover. Deep layer shear will also be a bit weaker with the close proximity to the upper low.
But with the cold front moving across the west late tonight, can't rule it out further south also. Winds are expected to diminish late this afternoon ahead of and advancing cold front. The mid and upper level forcing from this system might be enough to produce a few showers behind a cold front that pushes through western and central ND late tonight through Wednesday morning. On Wednesday the aforementioned cold front stalls over south central into northeast-east central ND. Temperatures Wednesday will range form the lower 70s northwest to mid 80s east.
Expect this activity to continue through the rest of the the morning before diminishing from east to west this afternoon and evening as H5 heights increase from a retrograding ridge.
Surface dewpoints in the lower 60s reflect a slow stream of moisture from the southeast.
Otherwise, expect highs in the low to mid 70s today.
The upper level feature will move through the area today with an area of low pressure sliding through western Kansas.
A strong high pressure system is positioned over the Mid-Atlantic states and a storm system is affecting the south-central United States, causing strong to severe weather conditions across eastern Texas and western Louisiana.
The high centered over Virginia continues to provide onshore flow at the surface. Temperatures a degree or two higher than the previous day with highs in the low 80s. High pressure will deepen overnight and the ridge axis will remain stationary across the Ohio River Valley.
337 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021 The upper level low pressure area spinning over New Mexico this morning will be the main influence in the short term weather along with the developing western U. large upper level low pressure area. The models and satellite show the first short wave trough over the central plains this morning lifting slowly northward across our region through tonight.
422 AM EDT Wed May 19 2021 A weak disturbance will offer a slight chance of storms this afternoon before high pressure and a southerly flow provide warm and mainly dry conditions through the end of the week and into the weekend.
243 AM EDT Wed May 19 2021 High pressure dominates the local weather into the weekend.
Previous Discussion: Dry, quiet weather will continue to prevail under high pressure.
ridge. This is due to the fact we are very close to the mean ridge position and there is a lack of a trigger both at the surface and aloft.
348 AM EDT Wed May 19 2021 High pressure from the Northeast to the Lower Great Lakes will bring summer-like temperatures through the end of the week.
Issued by National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 357 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021 A cold front remains just west of the CWA this morning. Showers and thunderstorms are expected along and just ahead of the front as a pre-frontal trough is located east of the front.
236 AM EDT Wed May 19 2021 High pressure will bring summer-like temperatures and mostly sunny skies to NY and PA through the next few days.
137 AM EDT Wed May 19 2021 High pressure will bring summer-like temperatures and mostly sunny skies to NY and PA through the next few days.
Skies are expected to be pretty cloudy for pretty much all day today, but maybe we can get enough thinning/partial clearing south of the warm front, in the warm sector (nrn lower), for stronger heating and destabilization for some pop-up showers. Again, lesser chances for showers tonight, especially south of the warm front (nrn lower). High temperatures today will be in the upper 60s to around 70F in eastern upper, and largely in the low to mid 70s in nrn lower Michigan, cooler near the lakeshores. No big changes in the weather setup over the next few days with a large summerlike upper level ridge parked to our south (centered across the Tennessee Valley).
The overhead ridge will continue to build this afternoon, resulting in height rises and afternoon temps maxing out in the upper 70s and low 80s. Overnight temps will drop to the low to mid 60s, just a few degrees warmer than normal. Unseasonably warm and dry weather is on tap for most of the next 7 days as an amplified upper ridge dominates.
East of the Mississippi River, sharp ridging dominates, with additional troughing found across the western Atlantic, and yet another cut off low meandering over Nova Scotia. At the surface, high pressure is centered across the Carolinas, with modest low pressure seen across the southern Plains. The models are in excellent agreement through the short term, with an omega block pattern becoming established, as cut off lows eventually reside across the western CONUS and Atlantic, while a strong ridge centers over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. At the surface, high pressure will gradually strengthen across the Eastern Seaboard through the period. Partly cloudy skies can be expected today, with temperatures rebounding into the lower 80s for most locations.
Mid level ridging from the east will quickly diminish the convection after sunset resulting in a warm humid night with minimums only falling into the mid to upper 60s.
321 AM EDT Wed May 19 2021 Diffuse lingering warm front difficult to pick out early this morning, but all indications are this front will lift northeast of central Indiana early today. Resultant showers will lift northeast and end this afternoon as upper eastern ridge retrogrades towards the Ohio Valley. The upper ridge of high pressure will continue to expand to the west.
The Mid-South remains on the western periphery of an upper level ridge axis stretching from the Great Lakes Region south into the Southeast United States.
102 AM EDT Wed May 19 2021 High pressure dominates the local weather into the weekend.
(Today and tonight) Upper level trough will settle across the area this afternoon and this evening. Otherwise, highs in the 70s & 80s this afternoon and lows tonight in the low to mid 60s.
326 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021 Recent water vapor imagery showing the southwest upper low nudging northeast with another low over the Pacific Northwest and ridging over the Ohio Valley and southeast states.
otw, look for a mostly cloudy but warmer day today.
Meanwhile current satellite water vapor imagery shows upper level low pressure center over central New Mexico.
221 AM EDT Wed May 19 2021 A Warm front will lift from south to north across the region overnight, allowing for warm moist air to lift into the region. Isolated showers with a thunderstorm possible for Wednesday, after which high pressure builds in and a warming trend with dry conditions expected for the end of the week. Weak warm front stretching from SW Indiana through eastern Kentucky to lift north overnight, under an overall upper level ridging pattern, with some weak echoes near the frontal boundary. Expecting winds to remain slightly elevated overnight, as well as some high based clouds, so not expecting much in the way of patchy fog overnight, though certainly increases in low level moisture with overnight lows in the lower 60s in the southwest and upper 50s further east.
658 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021 Throughout today, a mid-level convectively induced perturbation is anticipated to traverse the eastern Central Plains as it navigates upper-level southerly flow between a building upper-level ridge positioned across the Southeast to Great Lakes and an upper-level trough near the front range of the Rocky Mountains. Although mid- level height rises tied to the building ridge will likely act to suppress much of the lift ahead of the mid-level perturbation, modest daytime instability may aid in development of isolated to widely scattered showers by late morning into the afternoon, mostly in central and northeastern MO. As with today, the highest chances of precip will be across central and northeastern MO, where instability will be greatest. Therefore, high temps on Thursday will be warmer and slightly above average.
653 AM EDT Wed May 19 2021 High pressure from the Northeast to the Lower Great Lakes will bring summer-like temperatures through the end of the week.
Recent water vapor imagery showing the southwest upper low nudging northeast with another low over the Pacific Northwest and ridging over the Ohio Valley and southeast states.
909 AM EDT Wed May 19 2021 Strong high pressure is well established over the mid-Atlantic states and continues to ridge over Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. Strong high pressure over the mid Atlantic states ridges into the Gulf of Mexico and will keep gusty easterly winds around 20 knots through the end of the week, which has warranted the extension of the Small Craft Advisory.
528 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021 An amplifying mid-level ridge extending from the FL Peninsula into the central Appalachians will continue to build northward into eastern Ontario/western Quebec this morning, downstream from a deep upper low off the coast of British Columbia. The height gradient aloft across the local area has contracted between the ridge to our east and a weaker upper low situated across southeastern CO/northeastern NM, with a deep layer of moderately strong SSE flow and related moisture advection maintaining light shower activity across the region early this morning. With a fairly tight surface pressure gradient expected to be maintained by a strong ridge centered over VA/NC, southeasterly low-level flow could be gusty at times today, with sustained speeds around 15 MPH and gusts up to 25 MPH expected for much of the late morning/afternoon period.
High pressure returns today with temperatures warming back up to slightly above normal levels through Thursday.
533 AM MDT Wed May 19 2021 Satellite imagery shows just a few low/mid level clouds near the high terrain in the central portions of the forecast area early this morning. The low pressure system to our southeast will continue to slowly move northeast today and become abosorbed into the flow across the plains.
623 AM EDT Wed May 19 2021 High pressure dominates the local weather into the weekend.
952 AM EDT Wed May 19 2021 High pressure dominates the local weather into the weekend.
623 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021 (Today and tonight) Upper level trough will settle across the area this afternoon and this evening. Otherwise, highs in the 70s & 80s this afternoon and lows tonight in the low to mid 60s.
Gusty southwest winds will increase today and especially Thursday ahead of a cold low pressure system dropping down from the Pacific Northwest.
Further south, a bowing line of tstms will be moving eastward and off the lower Tx coast this morning.
Otherwise, expect highs in the low to mid 70s today. Highs are forecast to range from the low 80s east (where there is little to no precip forecast) to the mid 70s west half.
Expect this activity to continue through the rest of the the morning before diminishing from east to west this afternoon and evening as H5 heights increase from a retrograding ridge. There may be just enough weakness in the ridging to allow for a stray pop- up thunderstorm Thursday afternoon in the Ozark Foothills.
Dry weather will continue today under high pressure. High pressure will remain in control Thursday/Thursday night.
Diffuse lingering warm front difficult to pick out early this morning, but all indications are this front will lift northeast of central Indiana early today. Resultant showers will lift northeast and end this afternoon as upper eastern ridge retrogrades towards the Ohio Valley. The upper ridge of high pressure will continue to expand to the west.
Increased pressure gradient around high pressure to the north will produce a windy/gusty day.
Satellite imagery is showing an upper level low developing over teh Pacific Northwest. This low will cutoff from the main flow and circulate over the Northern Rockies for the next 3-5 days bringing periods of rain and snow. While precipitation is expected across the entire Northern Rockies, the majority of the higher precipitation amounts will be across central Idaho, West central and Southwest Montana and along the Continental divide.
An amplifying mid-level ridge extending from the FL Peninsula into the central Appalachians will continue to build northward into eastern Ontario/western Quebec this morning, downstream from a deep upper low off the coast of British Columbia. The height gradient aloft across the local area has contracted between the ridge to our east and a weaker upper low situated across southeastern CO/northeastern NM, with a deep layer of moderately strong SSE flow and related moisture advection maintaining light shower activity across the region early this morning. With a fairly tight surface pressure gradient expected to be maintained by a strong ridge centered over VA/NC, southeasterly low-level flow could be gusty at times today, with sustained speeds around 15 MPH and gusts up to 25 MPH expected for much of the late morning/afternoon period.
This impulse is expected to continue to lift northward through Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas today while the main area of low pressure remains out west over Eastern New Mexico and The Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. the main low out west is forecast to finally begin weakening as heights start to rise with a ridge of high pressure over the Eastern CONUS trying to expand westward.
336 AM MDT Wed May 19 2021 An upper level trough and closed low pattern will continue to deepen across the western U. This will set the stage for a cooler, wetter weather pattern late this week into the upcoming weekend.
The upper level low pressure cyclone will continue to drift eastward into the Texas panhandle Wednesday, before eventually lifting northward out of the region sometime late Wednesday/Thursday. Upper level support should increase with the gradual shift eastward of the upper level cyclone, and there's a chance some of these storms that develop may become marginally severe, with a main concern of hail and strong winds.
652 AM EDT Wed May 19 2021 A weak disturbance will offer a slight chance of storms this afternoon before high pressure and a southerly flow provide warm and mainly dry conditions through the end of the week and into the weekend. Mid-level ridging begins to retrograde west into the Ohio Valley tonight and Thursday with several degrees of warming at H7.
This afternoon, upper level ridging to our east will begin to expand westward, pushing the upper level impulse track westward and limiting rain chances to less than 10 percent through Thursday. Highs today and Thursday will be in the low to mid 80s, with lows tonight in the 60s.
609 AM EDT Wed May 19 2021 High pressure will bring summer-like temperatures and mostly sunny skies to NY and PA through the next few days. High pressure and rising heights will make the next two days feel summer-like. Temperatures will rise into the lower 80s Wednesday under mostly sunny skies.
Mid level ridging from the east will quickly diminish the convection after sunset resulting in a warm humid night with minimums only falling into the mid to upper 60s. /GG/ Thursday through Wednesday: The forecast period starts off tomorrow with stout ridging centered over the Appalachians and a series of disturbances across the Southern Plains. Further west, a more pronounced closed low and associated trough is forecast to be located over the Pacific Northwest. This synoptic setup will continue to foster anomalous moisture transport across the ArkLaTex as the Lower Mississippi Valley remains situated between the two aforementioned synoptic features.
Going into the latter morning and early afternoon hours, these light rain showers will gradually lessen in coverage as a series of very weak waves move along the more broad trough. Diffuse lingering warm front difficult to pick out early this morning, but all indications are this front will lift northeast of central Indiana early today. Resultant showers will lift northeast and end this afternoon as upper eastern ridge retrogrades towards the Ohio Valley. The upper ridge of high pressure will continue to expand to the west.
403 AM MDT Wed May 19 2021 Satellite imagery shows just a few low/mid level clouds near the high terrain in the central portions of the forecast area early this morning. The low pressure system to our southeast will continue to slowly move northeast today and become abosorbed into the flow across the plains.
Breezy southerly winds will prevail today, with the warm front lifting north of Illinois. Highs in the low to mid 80s are on tap Thursday.
856 AM EDT Wed May 19 2021 High pressure will bring summer-like temperatures and mostly sunny skies to NY and PA through the next few days. High pressure and rising heights will make the next two days feel summer-like. Temperatures will rise into the lower 80s Wednesday under mostly sunny skies.
An upper level low currently over northeastern New Mexico will slowly move into the northern Texas Panhandle this afternoon and then into southwestern Kansas this evening. With the proximity of the low to the region, we will be under strongly meridional flow aloft. Additionally, a short wave will be rotating around the base of the trough this afternoon. Furthermore, temperatures are expected to be a few degrees cooler today with expected cloud cover. Deep layer shear will also be a bit weaker with the close proximity to the upper low. Weak upper level ridging moves over the area as the upper low responsible for our recent rain showers and thunderstorms pulls our of the area and weakens.
Satellite imagery is showing an upper level low developing off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. This low will cutoff from the main flow and circulate over the Northern Rockies for the next 3-5 days bringing periods of rain and snow.
400 AM PDT Wed May 19 2021 Next weather system approaches today bringing cooler temperatures. The higher elevations will see some late season snowfall accumulations. A patch of subtropical high clouds is moving across central California early this morning, and a band of high clouds are beginning to spread into far northern California as the next upper trough approaches. Dry weather will continue today, though temperatures will be around 5-10 degrees cooler from a combination of increased onshore flow and synoptic cooling associated with the incoming trough.
The Upper level low will progress into the High Plains today, becoming more of an open wave trof as it moves northward. An upper level closed low moves into the western CONUS Thursday and a upper level high develops across the southeast CONUS with a ridge developing over the Plains.
Marena mesonet has recorded the highest amount at 0. Initial thoughts are greatest mesoscale forcing and rain coverage will continue to be upstream and east of MCV tracks, and later today ongoing activity near the close mid/upper low near Lubbock may enhance activity across our west (particularly across our Texas counties). The upper level low pressure cyclone will continue to drift eastward into the Texas panhandle Wednesday, before eventually lifting northward out of the region sometime late Wednesday/Thursday. Upper level support should increase with the gradual shift eastward of the upper level cyclone, and there's a chance some of these storms that develop may become marginally severe, with a main concern of hail and strong winds.
Temperatures will remain a bit cooler today with increasing cloud cover.
1100 AM EDT Wed May 19 2021 High pressure from the Northeast to the Lower Great Lakes will bring summer-like temperatures through the end of the week.
with a trough to the west. and ridge to the east of the state. Latest data suggests the WRN portions of the CWA remain in the higher confidence area of seeing more organized convection. the upper ridge to the east will begin expanding west. with AR becoming under more influence of the upper ridge. With the ridge expanding west. to the low 70s to mid 80s for Thu afternoon.
205 PM EDT Wed May 19 2021 High pressure builds through the end of the week, yielding increasingly summer-like conditions. High pressure begins to shift west this weekend with precipitation chances returning.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night): A strong line of thunderstorms, originating in northeast Mexico overnight, pushed through all of Deep South Texas this morning and continues to move through the lower Rio Grande Valley as of 2:30 PM. A pretty significant wake low developed near the coast behind the convection, producing wind gusts to near 50 mph, mainly across the lower RGV and coastal locations. The cooler airmass behind the this morning's convection will keep temperature rather comfortable, with lows forecast to drop into the mid-upper 60s overnight. The mid-level trough axis that brought us today's rain will push eastward tonight and Thursday. Slightly warmer temps expected on Thursday night as cloud cover increases through the night. Anticipate lows reaching the lower 70s.
Coverage and precipitation intensity will continue to increase as the low pressure intensifies and cuts off from the main flow overnight. One change from the past 24hrs has been the increasing confidence for the lower valleys in west-central Montana to see accumulating snowfall overnight. The mountains and mountain passes along the Continental Divide (Marias and MacDonald Passes) are still expected to see the highest snowfall amounts of up 12 inches possible. The mountains will continue to see periods snowfall through the weekend, as the low pressure system lingers just to the south of Montana.
High pressure and ridging results in dry weather and warming temperatures. Discussion: High pressure across the area will result in light winds and a dry airmass. Upper and mid-level ridging increases tonight and Thursday with subsidence keeping things dry. With 850mb temperatures expected to increase 1 to 2 deg C on Thursday, max temperatures are forecast to be 1 to 3 degrees warmer on Thursday.
10 inches, with nearly nothing south of Mobridge to Bowdle, and west of Miller. A synoptic-scale cold frontal boundary is positioned just off to the north/west of the CWA.
An upper level closed low will develop today and bring widespread precipitation to all terminals over the next 24 hours. Satellite imagery is showing an upper level low developing over teh Pacific Northwest. This low will cut off from the main flow and circulate over the Northern Rockies for the next 3- 5 days bringing periods of rain and snow. While precipitation is expected across the entire Northern Rockies, the majority of the higher precipitation amounts will be across central Idaho, west central and southwest Montana and along the Continental divide.
Ridging at the surface and aloft will result pleasant conditions especially through this evening. Readings will drop down into the 50s overnight with some increase in cloud cover late with the approach of a short wave over the top of the ridge. The region will remain under northwest flow with the upper ridge axis to our west with a weak diffuse N-S boundary oriented boundary across western New England. Short waves will ride overtop the ridge resulting in the threat for isolated to widely scattered convection across the area beginning Thursday afternoon.
High amplitude ridge was centered over VA/WV/NC region and covered much of the eastern U. The upper ridge will gradually retrograde westward into the Ohio valley on Thursday, but we'll probably continue to see some scattered showers across the area, with the best concentration of rain again over the western CWA. Highs on Thursday will be slightly warmer than today with near normal readings in the mid 70s over most of the area.
These storms are likely diurnally driven by daytime heating/instability with a little help from weak upper level troughing overhead. With the upper level trough axis finally moving east of the forecast area tomorrow, expect a mainly dry forecast for Thursday.