Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
345 AM EDT Thu Aug 25 2022 Weak waves of low pressure and nearby frontal boundaries will continue chances for widely scattered showers this afternoon.
Cooler today with mostly cloudy conditions and highs in the 80s.
By this evening and overnight, a stronger short wave trough (just now entering western WY) will move across South Dakota.
1157 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022 High pressure and dry air remain settled over the area. This combined with slight expansion of the upper level high to the west results in warmer temperatures across the area. High temperatures look to reach the upper 80s into the low 90s to close out the week.
The marine influence will maintain cooler temperatures and cloudier conditions near the coast through the week with periodic coastal drizzle through mid/late week. The increased marine influence has made for a notably cooler afternoon and evening for the more interior locations compared to the last few days.
252 AM EDT Thu Aug 25 2022 High pressure weakens today allowing for a lee trough to develop.
00Z upper air analysis and GOES-16 satellite trends indicate a weak mid-level trough over the Lower Mississippi Valley.
130 AM EDT Thu Aug 25 2022 High pressure tonight, will keep the skies clear with some patchy fog forming again. It will be warmer Thursday with mostly sunny skies.
TFJ The slow-moving upper level low-pressure system now over Washington State will continue to be the main driver for precipitation chances for our area over the next several days.
215 AM PDT Thu Aug 25 2022 Hot and dry weather continues today and Friday, then cooler temperatures are expected over the weekend. Temperatures are running about 4-8 degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago in areas influenced by the Delta Breeze, while elsewhere they are relatively unchanged. More substantial cooling is expected this weekend as a stronger trough affects the region.
For tnt and Friday a broad upper trof situated over the Pacific NW will edge east toward the Northern Plains. A s/w out ahead of that trof will eject into the Western High Plains this evening, and then track across the region through Friday.
Upper trough will move through southern Idaho today as a closed low passes through the Idaho panhandle. PWATs will continuously drop through the afternoon and evening hours as the upper low continues to shift northeastward and westerly flow sets up over southern Idaho and drier air moves into the region. As the low continues to lift into Canada early Friday and drier air continues to move into the region under zonal flow, only slight chances for isolated thunderstorms will return again tomorrow afternoon and evening but further east, along the eastern and southeastern highlands.
This evening, any convection that develops will diminish and temperatures will be in the low 70s again overnight.
601 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022 (Today and tonight) A weak frontal boundary remains draped across the region this morning while an upper trough is over the eastern sections of the country, similar to yesterday and the day before. While showers and storms are again anticipated due to the high moisture over the region and the lack of any capping, the flooding threat will begin to diminish and become more localized.
759 AM EDT Thu Aug 25 2022 Warm and mainly dry weather is expected today under high pressure. Shower and thunderstorm chances return with a Friday cold front. Dry weather is expected to return for the weekend under high pressure. An isold afternoon thunderstorm is possible over the higher terrain of WV as convective temperatures are briefly reached, though warm mid lvl air should limit/cap lifting, limiting this potential. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Friday as this trough and sfc cold front approach the Upper Ohio Valley region.
Convection chances will increase throughout the day and into the evening, across the southwest, as a slow moving upper level low passes through the western Dakotas. Thunderstorm chances will increase Friday as the aforementioned upper low lifts through the central part of the state.
/NF/ Today and Tonight: The troublesome low pressure system which has brought heavy rainfall to the region over the last several days is still lurking near the TX/LA border this morning. 2 inches in the 75th-90th percentile range) in the region, cyclonic flow through the lower levels should still supply ample moisture to any slow-moving showers or storms that develop today.
temperatures are starting off a couple of degrees warmer than the past couple of days. While an upper level ridge remains across the area this morning.
Low pressure over the Idaho panhandle and northwest Montana is pulling moisture up from the southwest this morning. By Friday morning, upper level flow begins to turn northwesterly behind the departing low pressure system.
24hr MinT trends are +5-10F warmer with lows in the 60-70F range (+5-10F above normal). A weak surface cold front pushing southeast from the Lower Great Lakes combined with marginally moist/unstable airmass will likely trigger scattered showers and a few t-storms Friday afternoon/evening. The highest POPs are painted across the northern tier where PMM/mean QPF signal is a little stronger.
333 AM MDT Thu Aug 25 2022 Slow moving upper level low pressure system will continue tracking east along the Canadian border over the next few days. Best chance of precipitation will be Friday afternoon and evening as the upper low moves across southern Saskatchewan. Remainder of the period features slight rebound upper ridge before another low pressure system moves across the Pacific Northwest.
The region remains under cyclonic flow aloft, with the upper level trough to our northeast and weak ridging just offshore. The trough will slowly push off farther to the northeast today, and with the ridge edging closer, and with clear skies and plenty of sunshine, temperatures will remain warm.
Highs today in the lower 90s, with humid conditions pushing heat indices into the 102-107 range. This activity is expected to decrease into the afternoon hours, with the highest coverage across inland portions of east central Florida.
SPC mesoanalysis had a weak area of low pressure over NE Iowa and SW Wisconsin with a corridor of low-level (sfc-925mb) warm air and moisture advection juxtaposed to the south/southeast. Today: Warm and humid conditions are expected with highs in the low to mid 80s and dewpoints well into the 60s. A weak cold front or wind shift will work through the area early, taking the better chances for afternoon/evening storm redevelopment to our south and southeast. There is still a low chance (15-20%) for an isolated shower or storm to pop up during peak afternoon heating, favored along the highway 20 corridor in association with a weak secondary wind shift. Tonight: High pressure will build in resulting in quiet conditions and light winds.
538 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022 A cold front will spread into the area today, bringing scattered showers and storms. High temperatures will warm into the middle to upper 80s today ahead of the front before slightly cooler air filters in behind the front for Friday. Surface analysis depicts an area of low pressure working into the Great Lakes Region this morning with it's associated cold front stretched southwestward through central Wisconsin into eastern Iowa. Temperatures on Friday will be slightly cooler than normal with values in the low to middle 80s. Northwest flow aloft will be overtaken by an upper trough moving into the Plains states going into this weekend.
A front moves across Friday and Friday night bringing showers and storms areawide, then much warmer into the weekend. Southerly flow increases today in advance of a weak cold front slated to approach the region Friday morning.
Less cloud cover from the decreased moisture overhead will result in slightly warmer temperatures, with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s both Thursday and Friday. Although the highest moisture has shifted outside of North & Central Texas, there will be a slight increase in low level moisture again Friday across East Texas. PoPs at 20-30% have been included Friday afternoon to account for the low potential of additional widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, but most will remain rain-free.
Cooler today with mostly cloudy conditions and highs in the 80s. Southerly flow returns on Friday and with it comes hotter temps, highs will reach back into the low 90s in portions of the western and south central plains.
The low is progd to move east today with very little shear associated with it. High pressure will build in behind the trailing cold front tonight, but there isn't much cold air behind it. Thus, temperatures Friday will be similar to today, if not a tad warmer.
On Friday the low is still in the same general vicinity but we will see a frontal boundary approach form the north that will help increase the coverage during the afternoon.
632 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022 (Today through Friday afternoon) Upper ridge over the SW US extends across NM and TX. The ridge will be centered over Srn AZ tonight and Friday as a trough rides over the top of it traveling along the US/Canadian border. W TX and SE NM trending warmer and dryer. Highs in the upper 80s again today, lots of places in the upper 80s on Friday too but more climb into the lower 90s.
With a fairly overworked atmosphere, even with the high moisture, we expect to see a decrease in convection Friday. Cloud cover today and Friday will lead to continued cooler temperatures.
550 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022 (Today) The weak mid level area of low pressure that has been talked about the past couple of days resided a little further southeast. while some mid clouds wrapping around the low were still spreading over parts of far Southeast Oklahoma. With this weak area of low pressure and deeper moisture further east and southeast today. There could be a couple isolated showers and or thunderstorm in the higher terrain of far Southeast Oklahoma this afternoon.
The high res guidance has a pretty good handle on this general idea although not so much on the exact location of the clusters of storms. Jones (Today and tonight) A weak frontal boundary remains draped across the region this morning while an upper trough is over the eastern sections of the country, similar to yesterday and the day before. While showers and storms are again anticipated due to the high moisture over the region and the lack of any capping, the flooding threat will begin to diminish and become more localized.
Partly to mostly sunny across northern NV today with highs in the low to mid 90s.
630 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022 (Today and tonight) No significant change to the weather pattern today as Oklahoma and north Texas will be between a mid-level trough to the southeast and a mid-level ridge to the west. The sensible weather impact will be a continuation of typical, late August weather with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s and diurnally-driven cumulus clouds. With the trough/mid-level weakness still in close proximity, isolated convection can't be ruled out once again this afternoon across southern Oklahoma and north Texas--but coverage should be even less than yesterday (if any convection does develop).
With the increased moisture and cloud cover, expect highs today will only climb into the low to mid 80s.
By this evening and overnight, a stronger short wave trough (just now entering western WY) will move across South Dakota. The Dakota short wave trough will lift northeast through Friday while another vort max strengthens over eastern Colorado.
628 AM EDT Thu Aug 25 2022 High pressure weakens today allowing for a lee trough to develop.
Highs Friday will be in the lower 90s in far western Kansas, with slightly warmer mid 90s in central Kansas.
The lowered cigs at KLLQ will begin lifting to VFR conds by 26/16Z.
Overnight Friday a weak trough moves out of the central and northern Plains and into the Midwest.
Most sites are in the low to mid 80s, but some warmer temps near 90 are north of our I-30 corridor.
The upper low producing the storms today will linger on Friday before being kicked out of the state, bringing more storms to the area, especially in SE Montana. Vertz A deep upper low swings across the forecast area this weekend.
101 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2022 Warm and mainly dry weather is expected today under high pressure. Shower and thunderstorm chances return with a Friday cold front. Dry weather is expected to return for the weekend under high pressure. An isold afternoon thunderstorm is possible over the higher terrain of WV as convective temperatures are briefly reached, though warm mid lvl air should limit/cap lifting, limiting this potential. High pressure will keep mainly clear skies overnight but upper level cloud cover is expected to on the increase overnight ahead of an approaching cold front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Friday as this trough and sfc cold front approach the Upper Ohio Valley region.
Overnight, as the low departs to the east-southeast, a cold front is progged to pass over our CWA. However, even with the passage of the cold front, light winds will struggle to advect a drier air mass south quick enough to clear out lingering low lvl moisture. By tomorrow morning, high pressure should settle in over the area, clearing out skies and lead to drier conditions amid mild temps.
Highs tomorrow behind the front will be a few degree cooler but still close to normal.
Looking at the upper- levels, current analysis shows a 40-50kt 300mb jet over east- central AL, ejecting northeastward as it moves within the eastern periphery of an upper-level trough. Moving into the lower levels, a weakening low is located over the ArkLaTex region, with an associated, stalled synoptic boundary draped southeastward across the Deep South. In fact, we have already seen reports of roadways being flooded this morning in portions of Mobile and Baldwin counties due to the high rain rates and saturated antecedent conditions.
Lows in the lower to mid 70s are forecast Tonight, with highs ranging from the mid 80s north and coast, to the lower 90s inland.
244 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022 18Z surface data has weak low pressure near KMTW. A front ran southwest from the low into far northeast Missouri and then west into southern Nebraska. After sunset, quiet and dry conditions will be seen through Friday night as high pressure moves into the eastern Great Lakes.
220 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2022 High pressure tonight followed by a cold front Friday and Friday evening. Southerly flow increases today in advance of a weak cold front slated to approach the region Friday morning. Cold front crosses Friday evening with associated showers and storms waning with loss of heating. S/W ridging builds in for the weekend with mainly tranquil weather expected.
Starting to see convection materialize across the higher terrain of Clark, Nye, and Inyo counties late this morning with additional thunderstorm development likely to pick up in adjacent high terrain areas shortly.
238 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2022 High pressure tonight followed by a cold front Friday and Friday evening.
(This evening through Friday night) Weak high pressure to the south of the Four Corners will transition northerly flow into a more zonal flow heading into Friday afternoon and evening.
Timing the highest potential will be the main forecast challenge the next few days, with temperatures a secondary concern.
------BMickelson Previous discussion: Slow moving upper level low pressure system will continue tracking east along the Canadian border over the next few days. Best chance of precipitation will be Friday afternoon and evening as the upper low moves across southern Saskatchewan. Remainder of the period features slight rebound upper ridge before another low pressure system moves across the Pacific Northwest. PATTERN: Slow-moving low pressure system continues to push bands of low-level clouds and scattered to isolated thunderstorms through portions of our region.
Currently, an upper level low is situated over the Pacific Northwest and is expected to slowly sink southeast over the next several days.
301 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022 A cold front across central Illinois will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon and evening. Slightly cooler air Friday will result in high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. A cold front resides just north of I-72 this afternoon, with widely scattered thunderstorms expected to develop near the front. A bit cooler temperatures are forecast for Friday as the slightly cooler air mass and morning cloud cover hold highs down to the lower to mid 80s most places.
Highs should be a little warmer, in the mid 70s to around 80.
237 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2022 Surface cold front, currently from northern Lake Michigan to northwestern Illinois to the Missouri and Iowa border, will move southeast across central Indiana overnight and Friday.
Friday, another axis of weak convection may form during the day from west KY back into SEMO, maybe the southern tip of IL as another wave moves across the area and through a zone of moisture south of advancing high pressure.
1225 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022 (Today through Friday afternoon) Upper ridge over the SW US extends across NM and TX. The ridge will be centered over Srn AZ tonight and Friday as a trough rides over the top of it traveling along the US/Canadian border. W TX and SE NM trending warmer and dryer. Highs in the upper 80s again today, lots of places in the upper 80s on Friday too but more climb into the lower 90s.
A low pressure center currently spinning over eastern Washington and the northern Idaho Panhandle will continue to pump moisture over the Northern Rockies from the southwest today. While we are not expecting a big severe weather outbreak, there could be an isolated storm or two that could become severe, especially for areas in western Montana along and east of the Highway 93 corridor. As the low slowly moves to the east across northwest Montana this evening, we expect showers and thunderstorms to continue to some degree overnight for northwest and west-central Montana.
1203 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022 (Today and tonight) No significant change to the weather pattern today as Oklahoma and north Texas will be between a mid-level trough to the southeast and a mid-level ridge to the west. The sensible weather impact will be a continuation of typical, late August weather with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s and diurnally-driven cumulus clouds. With the trough/mid-level weakness still in close proximity, isolated convection can't be ruled out once again this afternoon across southern Oklahoma and north Texas--but coverage should be even less than yesterday (if any convection does develop).
259 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2022 With the low-pressure trough finally making inroads into western Montana, the region atmosphere is responding with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, for now mainly for NW Montana and SE Montana, with a few isolated rain showers near and along Fort Peck Lake. Later on Friday, as the main trough axis finally slides through eastern Montana, better chances of showers and thunderstorms move from west to east through our CWA.
Temperatures should be warmer on Friday as southerly flow returns, especially near and west of the James River.
(The rest of today ) Current observational and upper air data supports a forecast of warmer temps this afternoon along with lower precip chances compared to the past couple of afternoons.
Several weak disturbances will move through the upper level trough across the area through tomorrow evening, and there will continue to be abundant moisture to tap into this evening through tomorrow evening.
102 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2022 Weak upper ridge is currently sitting on the lee side of the Rockies this afternoon, and an upper low over the pacific NW. Warmer temps advect back in for Friday, as southerly flow returns into the region.
A morning analysis shows a vertically stacked deep layer mean anticyclone centered just north of the Bahamas. A low-level ridge extends westward across the Florida Peninsula and most of the Gulf basin. Sprawling, weak high pressure over the central North Atlantic will continue to be disrupted by a trough over the Mid- Atlantic states.
Highs will start to creep up tomorrow afternoon with temperatures areawide reaching into the low to mid 90s.
While today's highs will be a bit warmer than yesterday with low 90s areawide, the exception will be the far eastern zones where widespread cloud cover is keeping the temps in the low 80s. Otherwise, Friday's high temperatures will stay again in the low to mid 90s.
/Updated at 126 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022/ Mid level troughing is over the Southern Appalachians while we continue to experience a few disturbances moving east over the area aloft. Sufficient moisture convergence in the lower levels continue to support an area of heavy rainfall from Selma east through the Montgomery Metro area where rain rates are averaging from 1-2 inches per hour. Little change to the overall pattern is forecast through the short-term period as we remain beneath broad troughing with some weaker disturbances aloft will continue to ripple east over the area tonight through Friday. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s.
An upper ridge over the Wyoming Black Hills will continue to break down through the rest of today and overnight with zonal flow setting up over the High Plains.
325 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022 The current surface map shows high pressure over ND extending a ridge over much of our area, as an elongated area of low pressure remains to our southwest. The highest area for instability remains over the western third of the state, with even ML CAPE values diminishing quickly and retreating to WY and the southwestern corner of SD overnight. Daytime heating will help spark a additional showers, with increased shear helping to sustain them longer than what we've seen over the last couple of days, along with a trough moving in at the surface. Overall through, the northern half of South Dakota has the highest chances of seeing measurable rain through Friday night.
138 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2022 High pressure will slide offshore tonight.
1209 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022 (The rest of today ) Current observational and upper air data supports a forecast of warmer temps this afternoon along with lower precip chances compared to the past couple of afternoons.
Mean layer ridging persists across the western North Atlantic, Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. Low-level ridging stretches across Florida which supports easterlies from the SFC to 600 mb. A fresh batch of east to southeast winds overnight should erode the low level inhibition which likely originated from Cuban shadow this afternoon. Boaters and residents should plan for the return to higher amplitude tides, with more scope needed in spring and dock lines, and less clearance available under the lowest bridges during high tide. Sprawling, weak high pressure over the central North Atlantic will continue to be disrupted by a trough over the Mid- Atlantic states.
802 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2022 Aviation -- Rain showers and a slight chance of storms tonight -- An area of low pressure centered over Central Lake Michigan at 300pm will slowly move through the area and off to the east tonight. The low will bring occasional light rain showers through the evening which should gradually come to an end overnight per the 12z run on the HREF.
A mix of dry and wet storms is anticipated with wet storms generally relegated to the high terrain while the valleys observe dry storms.
TFJ With the low-pressure trough finally making inroads into western Montana, the region atmosphere is responding with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, for now mainly for NW Montana and SE Montana, with a few isolated rain showers near and along Fort Peck Lake. Later on Friday, as the main trough axis finally slides through eastern Montana, better chances of showers and thunderstorms move from west to east through our CWA.