Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
341 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017 (Tonight and Sunday) A weak cold front has move south of the Red River at 3 PM CDT, though winds had already turned light north in a prefrontal trough south along the I-20 corridor. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in the Big Country and Concho Valley as the weak cold front moves through overnight.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening at all three terminals with CDS being favored for the highest chances. /issued 307 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017/ High pressure remains overhead this morning, but with some mid to upper level moisture trapped in it there are some light elevated showers developing across the Panhandle. Conditions will be similar Sunday, although a weakening of the ridge over northeast NM and the northern Panhandle point to the potential for wider coverage there with some potential to make a run at the northern zones Sunday night.
-SHRA will be possible at KLFK this afternoon as scattered showers continue to move across portions of Deep East Texas and Central Louisiana just ahead of a cold front located near the I-20 corridor. /issued 1102 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017/ The majority of the rain is about to move south and out of the CWA, but a few lingering scattered showers will be possible through the remainder of the afternoon, mainly south of Interstate 20, as a cold front slowly moves through the area.
Disturbance moving across the CWA this afternoon has flattened the upper ridge across the area and provided some relief from the searing heat. Sunday will be sunny with generally light winds under the ridge.
1248 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017 /18Z TAFS/ Weak cold front will push through KABI early this afternoon, with winds shifting northeast to east at 9 KTS or less. /issued 424 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017/ (Today and Tonight) The upper high will remain centered across the Southern High Plains again today, with hot temperatures continuing.
307 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2017 High pressure will remain across the area into Sunday with fair and seasonably mild weather.
105 PM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017 High pressure will set up over Northwest Nevada the next few days and dominate area weather. The high will shift east late in the week with moisture increasing. The weakening upper low that moved in continues to affect area weather as isolated convection has continued all morning.
134 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2017 Aviation High pressure from Canada will bring fair weather with low humidity through the weekend.
220 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017 High pressure centered over Wisconsin was pushing dry and cooler air into Middle Tennessee with north northeast breezes. The same high pressure will keep lovely wx across the area through the rest of the weekend. Under clear skies, lows tonight will drop to the lower 60s, except some upper 50s valleys and Plateau. Sunday will bring sunny skies with highs in the low to mid 80s, or around 4 degrees warmer than today.
328 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017 Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a ridge axis to our west, centered over the high Plains of the west, with the attendant downstream trough inducing a northwest flow across the northern and central Plains of the CONUS. And, this nice weather trend will persist through the rest of the weekend and into the beginning of the work week as the ridge axis remains to our west, allowing seasonally cool and dry air to prevail.
Langlieb High pressure ridging aloft will persist through this weekend, resulting in continued hot conditions. High pressure aloft will bring another hot and mostly dry day to North Central and Southwest Montana. Most of the storms are expected to remain over the high terrain.
238 PM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017 Upper level ridge will build in over the region through the week with above normal temperatures expected.
Confidence remains high that below normal temps will remain in place through Tue with highs in the low to mid 80s. Normal highs for this time of year are in the low 90s. The main story through these extended periods will be another cold front set to come through toward the end of the work week. This will allow an unseasonably strong cold front to push- in from the northeast.
122 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2017 Low pressure tracks well south of Long Island today, and well east of the area tonight.
400 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017 A diffuse cold front continues to slowly move south across the area and is still located across East Texas and Louisiana south of Interstate 20. A few isolated showers continue to develop along the front, but overall rain chances are decreasing as an upper trough axis moves farther away from the region.
245 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2017 An upper level trough will cross central NC this evening, and exit the region overnight.
249 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017 The ridge of high pressure over Minnesota and Iowa will continue to influence the weather through Sunday.
333 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017 Benign weather conditions will persist through the weekend, as high pressure remains situated across the Upper Midwest.
249 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2017 A cold front extended from eastern North Carolina to northern Texas this afternoon with a large area of high pressure over the Great Lakes and Upper Mississippi Valley.
Sfc features tonight will include the cold front over southern Carolinas to central GA to south central MS. Good low level convergence and weak areas of low pressure along the front will aid in elevated rain chances.
157 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2017 An upper level trough over the Mid Atlantic states will continue to move to the east.
The cloud cover has kept instability of the lower end, and with shear values low as well, storms have been tempered down somewhat. Cold front still remains to the north and will continue to slowly move southward this afternoon and tonight.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night): Little change in forecast in the short term as the 500 mb ridge over the southwestern US and Texas remains in control. Combination of the ridge and subsidence will lead to the continuation of triple digit heat for most of the Rio Grande Valley and Deep South Texas, with the exception of the immediate coast to areas just east of Highway 77.
Maintaining the low chance PoP for now, as uncertainty is high.
319 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017 H5 pattern across the CONUS today has an elongated area of high pressure extending from Texas west to California. A low amplitude ridge of high pressure was located across the western CONUS with a closed low over New Brunswick and a trough of low pressure extending south into the Carolinas. Within the low amplitude ridge, numerous weak disturbances were noted and have led to convective development across the central and southern Rockies this afternoon. By late afternoon and evening, thoughts here are to shift the highest threat for thunderstorms to the northwestern forecast area.
/issued 309 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017/ Ridge aloft will remain situated generally over west Texas through Sunday resulting in little in the way of clouds and temperatures remaining near if not slightly above normal across much of the area.
The "cold" front could bring temperatures one or two degrees lower than today's highs with the exception of the Rio Grande, which are anticipated to be warmer.
West- northwesterly winds will shift to north- westerly and northerly this afternoon with the passage of the cold front which is triggering the showers and thunderstorms.
Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicates a trough along the Carolina coast with northerly to northwesterly flow aloft across the forecast area. The northwesterly flow in the low levels has also lead to some clouds from orographic lift along the mountains. The cooler and drier air will continue to advect in overnight with forecast lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Therefore, expect cooler than normal conditions with mostly sunny skies. Longwave troughing across the East Coast will bring a dry northerly flow across the Southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley early this week.
Otherwise expect upper ridge to continue to slowly build across the region over the next several days. Trend continues in amplifying ridge axis through mid week, but mainly west of East Idaho.
High temperatures this afternoon will warm into the upper 70s to low 80s, except cooler along the Great Lakes shorelines. Nam shows a 500 mb ridge over the western U. and Rockies with a trough in the ern U. The upper pattern evolves into a trough across the upper Great Lakes and northern Plains by 00z Wed. Best chance for rain would be Tue afternoon with a weak cold front and lake breeze convergence occurring along with peak heating and would be chance pops at best. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge over the western U. 12z Wed with a trough over the upper Great Lakes which remains into Thu. VFR conditions and light winds will continue at all sites through most of the forecast period as high pressure remains centered over the Upper Great Lakes.
Sunny and warmer. Stagnant synoptic pattern of a polar low near Hudson Bay and an unseasonably strong upper ridge near San Diego/Baja California will not change through this weekend, and dry benign NW flow aloft will continue over Kansas. Even dry cold frontal passages/wind shifts and temperature flucuations will be lackluster, with cold Canadian air continually being directed to the Great Lakes and NE U.
1125 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017 H5 analysis from earlier this evening, had a low located over western Hudson Bay with a trough extending south into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. West of this feature, a low amplitude ridge of high pressure extended from central California north into southwestern Canada. Winds will shift around to the southwest this afternoon, pushing warmer air into the forecast area. This coupled with clear skies, will lead to lows in the lower to middle 20s. Warm air advection will also allow surface temperatures to rise into the low 60s on Monday. Low pressure will track across southern Canada and the northern Great Lakes region on Monday night. This low will drag a cold front across the region.
High pressure centered near DFW is quickly building into Middle Tennessee behind last evening's fropa.
A band of clouds associated with a weak cold front is shifting down the central Gulf of Mexico and Central Florida. Temperatures are in the upper 70s to near 80, and dew points are in the low to mid 60s. The main concern in the short term portion of the forecast will be the timing and impacts of the incoming cold front, which should begin to reach our coastal waters in the pre-dawn hours Monday morning. The frontal boundary will drift southward and stall across the island chain Monday afternoon before retrograding back northward as a warm front Monday night.
358 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 High pressure will build overhead late tonight and Monday.
A few normally colder location could briefly approach freezing. With the center of the high progged to be a little to the north, the boundary layer may not fully decouple, which will limit the potential for widespread frost.
The high cloud cover should keep temps fairly mild overnight as we keep a light breeze as well. For right now went pretty optimistic on highs and leaned towards warmer end of guidance.
151 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017 150 PM CST High pressure is centered over the southern Great Plains this afternoon with ridging extending into the Upper Midwest. Ridge axis will gradually traverse the CWA this evening and tonight with winds backing to the southwest behind. Expect highs right around 50F during the day Monday with mostly sunny skies and breezy southwest winds on the backside of the ridge which will settle across the Tennessee Valley. Deubelbeiss 121 AM CST The general idea is high pressure will shift across the Great Lakes, then shift off to the Ohio valley and mid Atlantic regions with some regularity throughout the extended. A series of clipper like systems will bring occasional wind, clouds and cold spells, followed by warm ups as each high pressure departs east.
Highs will be cooler today with mainly 50s state wide. The high center is fcst to shift EWD, passing ovr AR tngt. As the high shifts further to the E, south winds/milder air wl return for Mon and Mon Night.
Expect plenty of sunshine, with highs in the low 50s. It'll be quite a bit warmer than tonight, however.
High pressure aloft will remain over the region today. A weak weather disturbance will graze northern Utah on Monday, followed by the return of high pressure by midweek. A very weak wave moving through the ridge in place is resulting in some high clouds over northern and central Utah and little else.
As of 14 UTC, a surface warm front had propagated into eastern North Dakota. A very mild day is expected across the west and south cental with highs in the 40s to the lower 50s with favorable downsloping westerly winds. Across the far north central and the Turtle Mountains, mixing will be less where the front stalls, thus, highs today will be much cooler, only in the 20s and 30s. Upper level analysis places broad ridge over the western United States. For today into tonight, ridge will continue to gradually push towards the east bringing milder temperatures to the area along with quiet weather. Ridge passes over the area early Monday bringing one more mild day before a clipper passes through the region.
256 PM MST Sun Nov 19 2017 Current surface analysis shows weak low pressure over south central Canada, with warm front north and east of the area. Upper level analysis shows large scale trough over the eastern US, with broad ridge covering the western US. Warmer air has pushed into the area, with temps in the 50s across the plains, 40s over the Black Hills. High clouds are spilling over the ridge to the west, with some filtered sun at times in most areas. The main weather feature for the next several days will be a passing cold front Monday afternoon and evening, bringing a chance of rain and snow showers over parts of the area.
A weak mid and upper level trof will develop and migrate east across the central and southern Plains tonight into Monday.
214 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 Ridge of high pressure dominating period as it slides southeast into the region. With gradient winds set to lax overnight under clear skies, the radiational cooling component will take over from the advection process and allow for widespread locations reaching the freezing mark. With this shift in the low level fetch and a quick transition from NW flow aloft to amplifying SW flow east of a developing northern Gulf trough, we should see some moisture return off the Atlantic coast Monday night, which should allow for a low level cloud deck pushing in across the southern majority of the area after midnight. Shifting high pressure will bring winds quickly to the east after 13z and southeast by 17z tomorrow.
200 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 High pressure will build overhead late tonight and Monday.
With the high moving away from the region, winds will be light during the overnight hours and this will help keep temperatures from dropping into the upper 20s, that much of the area saw this morning. The quiet and fall like weather will continue tomorrow with much of the area seeing temperatures in the low to mid 60s under mostly sunny skies.
410 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 Dry and cool high pressure will build across the area through Monday. Moisture will return mid to late week as the weak low pressure develops over the Gulf of Mexico. An upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS will move offshore tonight. A dry air mass combined with diminishing winds and clear skies will allow temperatures to cool into the low to mid 30s. Dry and cool air mass over the area Monday with temperatures ranging from the upper 50s north to the lower 60s south.
1125 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 High pressure will build over the region today through Monday, before moving off the coast Monday night.
High pressure will keep most of the next 7 days dry.
Another chilly night will follow tonight though most spots will be several degrees "warmer" than this morning.
416 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 Snow showers will diminish after midnight as the upper low moves east. Dry and seasonal conditions are expected through midweek before another cold front crosses. The aforementioned high pressure will help to shunt moisture below efficient snow growth, thus, with minimal accumulation expected after midnight.
1006 AM MST Sun Nov 19 2017 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the western CONUS with NW flow across the Northern Plains. Broad trof at the surface over the Northern Plains with dry w/sw flow. Persistent upper ridge over the western CONUS expected through the week, bringing mainly dry and mild conditions to the region. One exception to this will be a clipper system that drives a cold front through the cwfa late Monday.
Northern and inland areas will be close to freezing before sunrise Monday so patchy frost is possible in sheltered, low lying spots.
Will also keep the high temperatures closer to the mid 30s with plenty of clouds, raw model output colder than guidance and the cooler trend in that guidance. High pressure ridge folds over Lower Michigan this evening which will not only end the cyclonic flow but also introduce some drier air in the boundary layer. Southwest gradient strengthens as the high moves east and the next potent system heads toward the northern Great Lakes.
Satellite imagery shows this as well and water vapor imagery showing a weak short wave trough enhancing the cloud cover. High pressure over Texas today will move east over the Tennessee river valley tonight. Axis of high pressure will still support calm winds tonight. Cirrus may be an issue for the low temperature forecast but do not think it will be that thick enough to make an impact.
253 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 A strong cold front has moved through New Hampshire and western Maine with a cold west wind behind it.
1143 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017 Temperatures remain on track for highs in the low to mid 30s this afternoon. Expect this trend to slowly continue eastward, but low clouds will be slower to clear in the east due to lingering thermal trof in this area through 12Z. Despite the return of some sunshine, a cold day lies ahead with lingering WNW winds and daytime temps only rising to the low to mid 30s. Daytime temperatures will be at least 10 degrees warmer on Monday. Medium Decent uptick in temps as gusty southwest winds pull in warmer airmass with low pressure passing to our north.
1242 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 A cold front located offshore will continue moving east as high pressure builds in from the west. A dry and cooler air mass will overspread the area through Monday. Moisture will return mid to late week as the weak low pressure develops over the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level trough moving thru the eastern CONUS today. Surface cold front just east of the Midlands will move offshore this morning. Stayed on the cooler side of Mos. Overnight low temperatures near freezing especially in the north and west Midlands/CSRA. Dry and cooler air mass over the area Monday with temperatures ranging from the upper 50s north to the lower 60s south.
Much of the area will experience near or below freezing temperatures tonight.
1133 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017 High pressure building into the midsection of the country this morning as the storm system from yesterday moves out over New England. 09Z/3 am surface analysis shows a strong and still deepening 983 mb low pressure just east of Lake Ontario while 1033 mb high pressure was over the central Rockies and ridging into the central and southern plains. The latest HRRR and Hi Res Rapid Refresh model runs are similar in handling these low clouds fairly well, and gradually decrease these clouds from west to east from mid morning into early afternoon as deep upper level trof over eastern parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio valley pulls further away from IL into the Atlantic states by sunset.
A weakening disturbance moving out of the Gulf of Alaska will continue to flatten the upper ridge over the Pacific Northwest today. Still expect precip to spread across the region tonight as the weak disturbance pushes a wet, but weak, cold front into the area. A moist southwesterly flow will persist across the region through the period on the back side of an upper level ridge centered over nwrn Mexico.
The cirrus is moving to the ESE in the base of the long wave with a fast short wave ridge over W TX right now. Look for the coldest temps East of the ridge axis for our North and East early tomorrow. /issued 418 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017/ Cold front which brought the recent air mass change has now pushed into the northern Gulf with very dry and cool W/NW flow aloft. This has enabled temperatures to really plummet as our extreme NW zones are near freezing while our remaining locations remain in the lower to mid 40s with a few more degrees yet to fall before sunrise. Sunny skies are expected today in this increasingly dry air mass, giving way to a pleasant Sunday with afternoon highs climbing back into the lower to mid 60s.
With high pressure in control, clear skies and light winds are expected.
A beautiful fall day today as high pressure encompasses the region.
Temperatures are running a couple of degrees warmer than expected so have raised forecasted high temperatures accordingly. /issued 157 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017/ Canadian high pressure will settle over the Mid South today. Highs will range from the middle 40s across northwest Tennessee to the lower 50s over north Mississippi. High pressure will move overhead tonight. This will mean a cold night ahead with widespread freezing conditions expected. Low temperatures will range from the middle 20s in the Tennessee Valley to around freezing in downtown Memphis. High pressure will move east on Monday with return southerly low level flow advecting warmer air into the region.
once the ridge axis slips to the east. High pressure will keep the Midwest dry through Monday. even as the temperatures warm slightly with the more southwesterly flow ushering warmer temps into Central IL. setting up a more amplified flow aloft and a temperature rollercoaster btwn dry cold fronts and short warming trends. Still spawning a piece of that energy down into the southeastern CONUS, NAM stronger with a closed low.
On Monday the pressure gradient will tighten across northeast and east central Kansas as the high Plains low pressure trough deepens.
This won't last long, tho, as the high is slated to move east with onshore flow returning late tonight into Monday. Deep moisture in the lower levels is expected to be slow to return but be sufficient enough for isolated shower activity mainly across the waters for Monday and Monday night. This should be aided by mid level lift from an approaching long wave trough and nosing in of the upper jet from the west. Temperatures are expected to be warmer for Monday, with highs reaching into the lower 70s across most locations, with a few locations still near the upper 60s especially farther north along the coast toward Port O'Connor and Port Lavaca.
1131 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017 Today: Ridge axis will move across the forecast area during the day with winds increasing/backing. This could keep maxes shy of full potential, but still prefer to hedge warmer than initialization given the otherwise classic set up for warmer than anticipated temperatures.
This has impacted the CWA, keeping moisture in the form of low clouds across the region as well as some sprinkles (and flurries in the highest terrain) throughout the morning and early afternoon. Made adjustments to the valley winds and temps, lowering them based on the decoupling that is likely to take place with high pressure overhead, especially Monday night under the more southerly flow. The period will be dominated by a general longwave trough over the eastern CONUS, and periodic impulses rotating through to affect the trough's amplitude and position.
The 19z MSAS surface analysis indicated the ridge axis extended from the Mid-MS Valley northward along the MN/WI border into the southwest corner of Ontario.
1135 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017 At 2 AM, a band of MVFR clouds associated with a short wave trough was moving southeast through western Wisconsin.