Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
139 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016 A cold front will be east of the area this morning. High pressure will build southeast out of Canada over the weekend.
Will keep an isolated storm threat in forecast overnight north/west of Interstate 4 given proximity of low pressure. Upper level cyclone will remain quasi-stationary over the extreme NE Gulf of Mexico. CWA will remain in between these features and high pressure ridge across south Florida. General troughiness aloft continues on Mon but gradually weakens by late Tue as this system drifts off toward the north. Afternoon temperatures remain slightly cooler as a result of the clouds/pcpn with generally mild/humid conditions continuing into the night. Deep layer ridging builds back westward across the area through the end of the week. Max temps should average out a couple/few degrees higher than the previous days given the lower coverage of diurnal clouds/convection.
231 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016 Large area of high pressure remains centered over South Central Canada and the Northern Plains. with strong ridging extending eastward into the Great Lakes Region. High pressure slides directly overhead Sunday night, resulting in excellent radiational cooling conditions.
It will continue to be humid in these areas but at least it will be cooler.
For Sunday, moisture convergence should maximize over the ArkLaMiss as northerly flow sends drier air behind a cold front moving slowly into northern portions of the forecast area.
However, with the approach of a weak cold front from the north this afternoon, this is expected to change.
129 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016 Early morning surface analysis with IR satellite imagery identified a ridge of high pressure along the eastern Dakotas up through Manitoba, which matched up with the clear skies and light winds. This high pressure system will move very little over the next 36 hours, which means that the sensible weather of sunny skies and light northwest winds will continue.
801 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 Low pressure will move slowly east across the forecast area through the remainder of the weekend. High pressure will build over the region through the middle part of the week.
Have left in some low 20 pops in for a few hours for the low chances of any lingering showers across now and any lingering by the time this area progresses through the broad upper trough base later tonight. For tomorrow, the higher than normal rain chances remain in the forecast. Problem is where will the highest rain chances be.
557 PM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016 As high pressure slowly flattens out due to a passing trough this evening, moisture will transport into the Four Corners from the west and southwest. That's a huge discrepancy and seems to be an issue with handling the passing trough. Low amplitude high pressure will remain over the southcentral US through the week.
/issued 345 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016/ As of 3PM, temperatures throughout the Mid- South are slightly below normal but humidity values in the low to mid 70s still make it seem quite uncomfortable outside.
A few showers and possibly a thunderstorm will be possible again tomorrow during the afternoon and early evening as an area of weak upper level low pressure meanders across the region. With the slight increase in 850mb temperatures, highs on Sunday should be a bit warmer than today, perhaps a degree or two.
950 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 Upper level ridge continues to slide into the Atlantic Basin as the upper trough digs across the MS River Valley into the Ohio River Valley. A series of short waves rotating through the base of the trough will result in increasing chances of thunderstorms over the next several days. A southwest flow will prevail aloft, between strong ridging over the western Atlantic and a broad upper trough over the western Great Lakes region and Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, a weak trough of low pressure will remain in place at the surface.
1145 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016 Upper level high is centered over the desert southwest while a trough is traversing the Mid-Mississippi Valley this afternoon.
734 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016 Broad mid/upper level troughing remains just to the N of the CWA between two ridges, with one located over the Desert SW and the other over the Atlantic, just off the coast of the SE. The highest PoPs were kept north of I-20 and west of HWY 49 where the highest confidence in storm coverage will exist through 2z.
A low pressure system over the region will move slowly east and will be over the northern Great Basin early Sunday evening. Weak high pressure aloft will prevail over the area Sunday night.
/issued 1022 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016/ Minor changes to pops overnight and tweak a few lows cooler again.
The longwave trough axis will shift through the area on Sunday changing the mid/upper flow from west-southwesterly to northwesterly which should reduce our chances for showers/storms somewhat. There will still be a window of opportunity in the afternoon /most favored in central Ohio/ for diurnally forced showers isold/sct showers and storms before subsidence on the backside of the longwave trough axis shuts things down by Sunday evening.
915 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 Low pressure will move slowly east across the forecast area through the remainder of the weekend. High pressure will build over the region through the middle part of the week.
1049 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 Showers and thunderstorms were spotted over the Florida Straits earlier this evening, followed by the development of more thunderstorms over the Lower Keys and moving west. Temperatures were in the low 80s with light winds from the east-southeast and mostly cloudy skies. A mid to upper level trough will swing west over the Florida Keys and south Florida overnight into Sunday. At the surface, a ridge will extend westward across the Florida Peninsula, keeping surface winds from the east to southeast through most of the work week.
Have left mention out of KDHT for the possibility of convection due to low confidence on timing and storms holding together as they move off the higher terrain. However, the upper flow pattern looks to change a bit as flat ridging encompasses the southern half of the CONUS. As is common this time of year, northwest sections of the CWA will have the best chances for convection and eastern areas the lowest chances. Temperatures will return to the mid to upper 90s after our brief reprieve of highs "only" in the low to mid 90s.
Precip that fell today in some valley locations, increased the low level moisture, which may result in some fog development.
635 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016 It's another beautiful Saturday afternoon across the local area, with plenty of sunshine, breezy winds and temperatures only climbing into the lower 80s.
A few weak low pressure systems will track along the boundary, bringing periods of showers and thunderstorms.
The deeper marine layer will also moisten up the airmass on the lower slopes in the Santa Lucia Mountains.
802 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 Upper level ridge continues to slide into the Atlantic Basin as the upper trough digs across the MS River Valley into the Ohio River Valley. A series of short waves rotating through the base of the trough will result in increasing chances of thunderstorms over the next several days. A southwest flow will prevail aloft, between strong ridging over the western Atlantic and a broad upper trough over the western Great Lakes region and Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, a weak trough of low pressure will remain in place at the surface. While most of the convection should dissipate after midnight, will hold on to a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Midlands, supported by some of the high resolution mesoscale models.
1040 PM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016 As high pressure slowly flattens out due to a passing trough this evening, moisture will transport into the Four Corners from the west and southwest. That's a huge discrepancy and seems to be an issue with handling the passing trough. Low amplitude high pressure will remain over the southcentral US through the week.
1022 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016 Minor changes to pops overnight and tweak a few lows cooler again. Due to the placement of the trough, most of the convection is confined along and north of I-30 but some additional showers and storms have developed farther south across east Texas and north Louisiana. The upper ridge along the Gulf coast will become more influential on Sunday with mostly diurnal convection during the afternoon and early evening hours, mainly in south Arkansas and north Louisiana. The strengthening upper ridge across the region will spell hotter and drier conditions for the upcoming week.
1144 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 High pressure will build across the region through tonight, then move east on Sunday.
Persistent low amplitude longwave trough remains over the western Great Lakes and looks to stay that way until it releases eastward Sunday and Sunday night. This region had been advertised by most models to be favored for the next round of thunderstorms this evening as the next wave ejects out of the base of the trough, but now looks to be stable aloft and looks like the jet streak is aiming a bit further south as well.
This will favor storms moving into the lower elevations south of the Mogollon Rim late in the day.
Increased moisture and cooler temps aloft associated with passing wave through South Florida should generate higher coverage of showers and storms through Treasure Coast and interior areas south of Orlando. Highs will continue to reach the low to mid 90s with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Temperatures aloft will be slightly cooler for enhanced destabilization.
A weak dry cold front will move through overnight and Sunday morning, bringing slightly cooler air to the region. Smoke layers with MVFR visibilities will continue in the Lowman area and surrounding valleys.
An area of low pressure will track along the front on Sunday.
An approaching cold front will turn the wind more southerly this morning, then southwesterly by this evening. However, weak ridging over our CWA will keep conditions rather benign for the remainder this morning. Dewpoints have held steady in the lower 70s. The highest chances of precip will reside along the east coast metro. Temperatures this afternoon will once again max out in the low to mid 80s, which is around 6 to 9 degrees above normal for this time of year. Tonight into Wednesday, southwesterly flow will develop as the aforementioned high pressure cell continues its journey east.
As for today, the dry airmass remains in place but the generally west-northwesterly flow and mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to once again rise into the lower 80s across most locations. A cooler airmass will slide into the region allowing for another night of overnight temperatures in the low 50s to upper 40s. H925 temperatures drop to near 8-10C which should translate to temperatures for Wednesday being cooler in the 60s.
For 12z Aviation discussion below Precipitation continues to shift east and northeast of the forecast area this morning for the most part, but given lingering patches of freezing drizzle and slick spots on a few area roadways, will leave the winter weather advisory going until it's scheduled 6 a. We will be stuck in the low clouds and fog for awhile, but the next new concern will be related to the increasing northwest winds. As the mid/upper trough dips across the Great Lakes tonight and scrapes the eastern portion of the forecast, we could see scattered flurries over west central Wisconsin.
Cold high pressure will begin to build into the region this evening, with winds picking up and becoming more northwesterly after sunset, as overnight lows will generally be in the 30s and 40s. High pressure will keep conditions dry on Wednesday, when the sun could make a rare appearance for many locales as clouds clear.
/Issued 422 AM CST Tue Jan 3 2017/ The much anticipated Arctic cold front had entered into Northeast Oklahoma early this morning with breezy northerly winds. The cold front will continue to move through the CWA during the day today as the parent low pressure system currently over the Northern High Plains pushes toward the Great Lakes region. This will help to create wind chill values in the single digits near the Kansas border to the lower 20s near the Red River Wednesday morning. Attention then turns to the second half of the week as a wave drops south out of Western Canada and a closed low currently off the coast of the Pacific Northwest approach and move through the region.
Another warm day is expected although a bit cooler than yesterday due to increased cloud cover. Winds ahead of an approaching cold front will remain southerly over the coastal waters through late Wednesday. With the warm moist southerly winds blowing over the cooler coastal waters, some patchy sea fog will be possible today.
Today warm temperature across the ARK-LA-TEX due to compressional warming ahead of a cold front.
706 AM EST Tue Jan 3 2017 Rain will accompany crossing low pressure today. No major changes were needed to the near term forecast for the dawn update as low pressure will spread widespread rain over the region today. Showers, especially in upslope areas in lee of the lakes and over the ridges will continue into Wednesday, but with a phase change to snow with encroachment of the colder air.
A persistent westerly flow aloft will lead to periods of considerable cloudiness over the region through much of the week while significant snowfall will be possible in the higher elevations of the Sierra.
Additional showers and isolated storms ahead of cold front will move across the area this afternoon. The cold front will move across the area tonight but temperatures will still remain above normal through Wednesday. A cold front will move through the region tonight. A cold front will push through the waters late tonight with winds shifting to the northwest.
West to northwesterly downslope winds in the low-levels combined with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies will push afternoon highs into the 70s for most of south central Texas today. By early evening, winds will begin to shift to the north across the Hill Country as a cold front moves into central Texas. The front will continue to move southward this evening, with northerly winds and cooler air reaching the coastal plains shortly before midnight.
An upper trough over the Pacific Northwest will continue to elongate westward well off the Oregon coast. A more significant precipitation event is on tap for late tonight and Wednesday as warm front lifts into southeast Oregon and far southwest Idaho. Greatest QPF/snow amounts will fall across southern Harney and Malheur counties eastward into the higher terrain of southwest Idaho south of the Snake Plain through Wednesday evening. For this event the West-Central mountains will see the lowest snowfall totals in the forecast area.
This will likely keep overnight lows a bit warmer for these areas, though even a short period of clearing could cause a rapid drop in temperature.
These winds are being driven by a ridge axis extending across South Florida and the Keys. Forecast - Winds will weaken significantly today as the ridge across our area retreats eastwards and the mid latitude low continues to deepen. Rain chances will start out slim to none but edge up to low chance by tomorrow night as a swath of lower level moisture rotates around the lingering lower level ridge and a dying cold front arrives in South Florida and the Keys.
533 AM CST Tue Jan 3 2017 The cold front has moved through the forecast area ushering in plenty of cold air advection. The snow could very well be glazed over with all of the freezing drizzle on top of it lately.
12z KEY and MFL soundings show steep low level lapse rates and a lack of strong winds along the lower levels of the column to disrupt potential waterspout development. These winds are being driven by a ridge axis extending across South Florida and the Keys. Forecast - Winds will weaken significantly today as the ridge across our area retreats eastwards and the mid latitude low continues to deepen. Rain chances will start out slim to none but edge up to low chance by tomorrow night as a swath of lower level moisture rotates around the lingering lower level ridge and a dying cold front arrives in South Florida and the Keys.
A cold front will move through the region Wednesday. As low pressure develops in the Gulf of Mexico.
626 AM EST Tue Jan 3 2017 A cold front crosses late Tuesday. Cold air arrives Wednesday and remains into the weekend under high pressure. Low pressure tracks northeast along the Ohio Valley today and drags a cold front across the region late tonight. Cold front arrives this evening and we will see shower activity pick up again. A cold front should be along the Appalachians by 06Z Wednesday.
Quite a contrast in airmasses over the West Coast this morning with cold air trapped over Oregon and Washington and much warmer air to the south under as strong westerly flow. Lodged between low pressure west of the Pacific Northwest coast and a ridge of high pressure well southwest of San Diego lies a very moist fetch of air emanating from about 25 north and pushing due east into California.
courtesy of the W/SW flow ahead of the cold front later this afternoon. Not expecting a lot with this FROPA in terms of precipitation but the Canadian air mass in the wake of this front will bring cooler temps tonight and tomorrow/Weds. As the associated low pressure system moves further to the ENE. Cold front pushes off the coast tonight and northerly flow ramps up and reaches SCEC 6-10hrs and probably SCA at least for a few hours.
as weak low pressure tracks northwest of the region. A cold front will move through the region Wednesday. As low pressure develops in the Gulf of Mexico.
Showers and IFR-MVFR cigs this morning ahead of a cold front will lift to MVFR-VFR between 15-18Z with northwest winds picking up as the front comes through.
503 AM EST Tue Jan 3 2017 Band of showers and thunderstorms will move east of the region this morning as weak low pressure tracks northwest of the region. A cold front will move through the region Wednesday. As low pressure develops in the Gulf of Mexico.
422 AM CST Tue Jan 3 2017 The much anticipated Arctic cold front had entered into Northeast Oklahoma early this morning with breezy northerly winds. The cold front will continue to move through the CWA during the day today as the parent low pressure system currently over the Northern High Plains pushes toward the Great Lakes region. This will help to create wind chill values in the single digits near the Kansas border to the lower 20s near the Red River Wednesday morning. Attention then turns to the second half of the week as a wave drops south out of Western Canada and a closed low currently off the coast of the Pacific Northwest approach and move through the region.
A warm front will lift northward across the state for tonight, bringing heavy snow to northern Utah and southwest Wyoming. A cold upper level trough will then swing south across the region during the latter half of the week.
A backdoor cold front will move through area terminals this evening, accompanied by an easterly/northeasterly wind shift that will reach MAF by around 02Z, and CNM and FST by around 09Z.
/issued 642 AM CST Tue Jan 3 2017/ For the 03/12Z TAFs, VFR conditions will continue through today with abundant high clouds streaming in from the west followed by mid clouds later this morning and through the afternoon as a cold front shifts into the region. Today warm temperature across the ARK-LA-TEX due to compressional warming ahead of a cold front.
518 AM CST Tue Jan 3 2017 A cold front moving through the forecast area this morning will see winds veer to the north. /issued 320 AM CST Tue Jan 3 2017/ The change to a colder pattern is literally at the doorstep this morning as the initial cold front is moving southward through the Panhandle, oriented WNW-ESE along a south of Dalhart to near Childress line at 08Z. The high temperature forecast will be tricky with uncertainty regarding frontal progression and duration of stratus. The best push of cooler air will be southward through the Rolling Plains, although there will be some push into the South Plains. For now have trended toward a consensus of short term guidance which is generally toward the lower end of the range in the objective guidance.
530 AM EST Tue Jan 3 2017 Approaching low pressure will provide a period of rain today. Colder temperatures and potential for snow showers will return by Wednesday behind a cold front. Activity will become more showery this afternoon as isentropic lift begins to fade and cold front extending from the northern Great Lakes low approaches from the west. As moisture starts to peel off in the post-frontal environment, upslope areas will continue to be enhanced, but it will take until close to midnight for the ridges to approach freezing and for cloud temperatures to be conducive to snow crystal growth.
642 AM CST Tue Jan 3 2017 For the 03/12Z TAFs, VFR conditions will continue through today with abundant high clouds streaming in from the west followed by mid clouds later this morning and through the afternoon as a cold front shifts into the region. Today warm temperature across the ARK-LA-TEX due to compressional warming ahead of a cold front.
628 AM CST Tue Jan 3 2017 A cold front that extended just southeast of a KF00 /Bowie/ to Breckenridge /KBKD/ at 12z will continue to move southeast through North and Central Texas today. /ISSUED 349 AM CST Tue Jan 3 2017/ A cold front will move across North and Central Texas today and bring an abrupt end to the very warm temperatures we have been experiencing since Christmas.
The surface cold front is clearly marked by a line of showers just ahead of it, which extended SWWD from Fitzgerald, GA to near Mexico Beach, FL at 14z.
931 AM EST Tue Jan 3 2017 Low pressure will track northeast through Ohio today. Drier and much colder conditions will arrive on Wednesday as high pressure builds west of the region.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 44 48 30 / 20 20 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 43 47 27 / 40 30 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 64 42 47 28 / 40 30 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 42 47 25 / 40 60 20 10.
634 AM EST Tue Jan 3 2017 Low pressure will track northeast through Ohio today. Drier and much colder conditions will arrive on Wednesday as high pressure builds west of the region.
1036 AM EST Tue Jan 3 2017 A cold front crosses late Tuesday. Cold air arrives Wednesday and remains into the weekend under high pressure. Rain lifting north with the upper level low bringing less coverage of showers in from the south. Low pressure tracks northeast along the Ohio Valley today and drags a cold front across the region late tonight. Cold front arrives this evening and we will see shower activity pick up again. A cold front should be along the Appalachians by 06Z Wednesday.
By Wednesday temps will be cooler with highs in the mid 40s.
354 AM CST Sat Dec 17 2016 An arctic cold front is slowly pushing south and west across the southern and southwestern Texas Panhandle and extends at 0930Z from between Wellington and Memphis to Amarillo and then to near Nara Visa New Mexico. Considerable low clouds are quickly moving in behind the cold front with some patchy fog being reported at KDHT. Cannot rule out some light freezing drizzle across the Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandles early before snow develops by around mid to late morning.
404 AM EST Sat Dec 17 2016 Cold high pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast will continue to ridge into the Carolinas and Georgia into this morning. A warm front will develop to our south and move northward through the during this afternoon.
It looks like we still have enough ice in the dendrite region, so threat of freezing drizzle looks very low. The main upper trough moves through this afternoon and tonight, providing some mid level frontogenesis that will re-enhance the snow across southern Wisconsin.
Very similar conditions expected during the daytime hours on Saturday as a strong cold front approaches our region from the northwest. We have updated hourly temperature grids with HRRR to better reflect the current chill still North of I-30 give or take, as this warm front will clear all of the area by daybreak.