Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Today will remain warm ahead of this system, but temperatures lower and snow levels drop significantly Friday evening into Saturday as a cold front passes. Winds will be gusty overnight as the front works into the area, particularly on ridge tops.
Today will be fairly mild in most areas under weak high presure but an upstream trough seen in water vapor breaking across the top of the upper ridge near 140W will be heading into the PacNW with additional eneergy and moisture later today through Saturday.
Additional, but smaller, bands continue to slide across Southern Middle TN and NE AL and has produced a dusting to less than an inch, especially in the higher terrain. The increase in pressure gradient will increase the CAA and breezy W/NW winds ~10kts will keep daytime highs in the lower 40s. Despite that, lows tonight should chill into the lower 30s.
Warmer weather will return for Saturday as mid-level heights rise in the wake of the exiting upper trof.
High pressure aloft over the eastern Pacific will keep Utah under a moist northwest flow today. A cold upper level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest Friday night, then settle into The Great Basin with some rain and snow and colder temperatures this weekend. This continues to support high-density mountain snowfall along with strong ridgeline winds, while snow levels have risen above 6000 feet across most valleys. Low amplitude mid level ridging will briefly build across the forecast area late this afternoon into this evening.
249 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2020 Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a broad trough dominating the Nation, keeping a northwest flow in place locally across our section of the Lower Missouri River Basin.
325 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 Upper level ridge remains locked in place downstream of the Sunshine state with a persistent upper level trough almost seemingly locked in place across the eastern U. Upstream of this dynamic duo, the next ridge is beginning to move ashore across the west coast of the U. Closer to home, a cold front continues to move through the area with some lingering showers still present over the Middle and Upper Keys as well as the Florida Straits. The stratus associated with the front is slowly marching east with some filtered sunshine starting to make a return in the Lower Keys. Lower dew points are moving into the area with dew points already dipping below 60 across the Lower Keys.
For tonight, look for chilly and mainly dry conditions with lows in the low to mid 20s. For tomorrow, warmer weather is expected with highs in the 40s.
243 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2020 GOES water vapor/RAP 500mb analysis this afternoon showing a large long wave upper trough carved out across most of the CONUS. Meanwhile, a weak embedded short wave trough was progressing southeast across IA. Plan on lingering clouds/scattered flurries to continue tonight as the mid-level trough works through the area. High pressure builds in Saturday for increasingly sunny skies but highs will be a bit on the chilly side with readings only topping off in the teens and 20s.
Without much sunshine and a little snow on the ground, temperatures will only climb into the low and mid 30s today.
Winds will veer around to the N/NE after 08/09Z as a weak cold front moves into the area. /issued 427 AM CST Fri Feb 7 2020/ A large upper trough is over most of the country with West Texas and southeast New Mexico on the backside of the trough. The upper trough will move eastward and weaken on Saturday with the CWA under westerly flow aloft.
Surface temperatures above freezing and light snow rates have kept any potential accumulations near zero, but a very light dusting of snow could occur in some of the heavier showers. Road temperatures are above freezing, so impacts to roads should be low. Snow shower activity should gradually end west to east tomorrow, and may transition to rain showers as temperatures warm well above freezing.
While the trough continues to move through the area, several vort lobes will continue to provide slight chances of snow showers and flurries to continue into the early afternoon. Upper level trough continues to swing through, producing scattered snow showers across the area this morning. Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 31 49 30 57 / 30 20 30 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 38 30 45 28 55 / 50 10 40 20 0 Oak Ridge, TN 38 29 45 28 54 / 40 10 30 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 26 42 27 51 / 80 20 30 30 0 TN.
258 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2020 (Tonight and Friday) Quiet and warmer weather through Saturday. Highs for the southern half of the area will warm into the low to mid 70s, and into the mid 60s near and south of I-20, and upper 50s to low 60s for the area that will still have some snowcover after today.
/issued 707 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2020/ Last night's cold front and associated showers/storms is now well east and southeast of the area and will continue to move away. a mid level trough swings across the eastern states with an embedded short wave trough producing some slowly clearing cloudiness. High pressure building into the Gulf will maintain winds in the small craft advisory range.
The WAA will allow highs to be 10-15 degrees warmer than today. After midnight a cold front will move in from the northwest.
208 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 Diminished wind will occur farther behind the strong cold front and in a weakening pressure gradient ahead of the approaching pressure ridge tonight.
212 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2020 After today's weak cold front a few patches of fog will be possible Sat AM around sunrise.
Low pressure will track across southern South Dakota/northern Nebraska Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.
305 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 Mostly cloudy skies expected to break up this evening allowing temps to fall to the low- to mid-30s tonight and tomorrow morning. With temps just above the surface below freezing this means winter precip will be involved, and even though QPF is expected to be low, it will be enough with an approximate 7. Embedded in colder temps, areas of NW Georgia could see 1-2 inches, with higher elevations along the spine and mountaintops of the GA Blue Ridge mountains could see up to 4 inches in some isolated locations.
A cold front is still slated to move into the area by Saturday morning, which will move east through the forecast area through Friday afternoon. Widespread precipitation on Saturday, with snow level 4500 ft MSL lowering to the valley floors in the afternoon following a cold front.
-Mottice Low cloud with occasional light snow or fog will persist around the Yellowstone valley through the morning on the edge of the cold northern plains high pressure. Upper wave crossing the region today will at least partially clear out the low clouds, and shift the boundary a little to the east.
While the trough continues to move through the area, several vort lobes will continue to provide slight chances of snow showers and flurries to continue into the early afternoon. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 31 49 30 57 47 / 20 30 10 0 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 30 45 28 55 43 / 10 50 20 0 70 Oak Ridge, TN 29 45 28 54 44 / 10 50 20 0 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 26 42 27 51 38 / 10 30 30 0 70 TN.
High pressure over the Gulf will continue eastward, settling across the area overnight. Min temps by daybreak will fall to the low to mid 40s over much of the area. High pressure along the eastern seaboard will produce breezy east winds. A broad mid level ridge will build over the Florida peninsula throughout the week. At the surface, the strong Atlantic high pressure ridge will prevent any cold frontal passages until possibly Fri at the earliest.
220 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 While high pressure will briefly overtake the region tonight, a cold front will bring a quick chance for showers Saturday evening.
The GFS stays on the high end, although has shifted its heavier pcpn line south of I-90.
255 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2020 Much of the snow that fell this morning continues to melt as temperatures rise above the freezing mark.
The pleasant weather will be short-lived, however, as high and mid level clouds move in later this evening in advance of a cold front expected tonight into Saturday. A cold front will push through the waters tonight.
1200 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 A trailing cold front will cross central NC today. High pressure will follow and build across the Southeast tonight and Saturday, ahead of a fast-moving frontal system that will cross the region Saturday night.
1003 AM MST Fri Feb 7 2020 Amplified flow pattern over the CONUS with a deep upper trough axis centered from the northern Great lakes south into the southeastern US. At the surface, a cold front has slowly moved southeastward and is currently located from eastern MT through western SD into south-central SD.
Amplified flow pattern over the CONUS with a deep upper trough axis centered from the northern Great lakes south into the southeastern US. At the surface, a cold front has slowly moved southeastward and is currently located from eastern MT through western SD into south-central SD.
Winds should gradually decrease through the afternoon as high pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico shifts eastward. Lows tonight should fall into the 50s to the lower 60s at the beaches, with increasing clouds after midnight. Another warm day is expected on Saturday with high temperatures in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
Afternoon WV/IR imagery revealed little change in the large scale pattern with upper ridges off both coasts and a upper trough over the Eastern CONUS. An early afternoon sounding indicated a moist profile up to 500mb with weak instability in the low/mid levels. Occasional light snow will persist for the lower elevations along and west of the Laramie Range through this evening.
318 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2020 Wx map shows weak high pressure over the NE Gulf of Mexico, with a weak cool front over NE TX and the ArkLaTex, moving southeast towards the region. Still a little cooler over Central and Southern Louisiana with temperatures in the lower to mid 60s where this area remains closer to the cooler air mass.
A broad upper level trough was centered over the eastern half of the CONUS today. Strong northwest flow extended from the northern Rockies into the central and southern Plains on the backside of the upper trough. trough lifts out and another storm system digs into the western states. The zonal flow pattern will force lee side troughing along the eastern slopes with an increasing pressure gradient across western Kansas resulting in gusty southerly winds developing by midday Saturday. Low level warm advection will bring warmer temperatures to the area Saturday afternoon with highs expected to rise into the lower to middle 50s. The northern stream wave will force another cold front south through western Kansas late Saturday night.
With light winds, wind chills should remain warmer than 20 below.
Cold, dry air from a high pressure system over Ontario is then expected to move into the region overnight. Locations in central and east- central Wisconsin will be slightly warmer ranging from the single digits above zero to the lower teens above zero. An additional inch of snow is possible by Saturday evening, mainly right along the lakeshore, as the moisture aloft will be fighting with dry air from a high pressure system to the south and east of the region. Saturday's high temperatures will be slightly cooler than Friday's, mainly in the lower to middle 20s, due to the high pressure bringing in some cooler air.
Mostly cloudy skies expected to break up this evening allowing temps to fall to the low- to mid-30s tonight and tomorrow morning. With temps just above the surface below freezing this means winter precip will be involved, and even though QPF is expected to be low, it will be enough with an approximate 7. Embedded in colder temps, areas of NW Georgia could see 1-2 inches, with higher elevations along the spine and mountaintops of the GA Blue Ridge mountains could see up to 4 inches in some isolated locations.
Snowfall of 1 to possibly 2 inches across the highest elevations can be expected. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 31 49 30 59 47 / 30 50 10 0 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 30 44 29 55 44 / 10 40 10 0 30 Oak Ridge, TN 29 45 28 56 44 / 10 30 10 0 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 26 42 27 53 39 / 30 30 30 0 20 NC.
/issued 258 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2020/ (Tonight and Friday) Quiet and warmer weather through Saturday. Highs for the southern half of the area will warm into the low to mid 70s, and into the mid 60s near and south of I-20, and upper 50s to low 60s for the area that will still have some snowcover after today.
Much of the snow that fell this morning continues to melt as temperatures rise above the freezing mark.
527 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2020 Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a broad trough dominating the Nation, keeping a northwest flow in place locally across our section of the Lower Missouri River Basin.
Temperatures will remain warm with highs in the lower/mid 70s. We should get a brief break from things Sun evening, but showers and (isolated) thunderstorms are set to return with the approach/passage of a cold front overnight Sun/very early Mon (09-12Z). Where this line ends up will have impacts (with the potential of possible heavy rain and even temperatures) Tues/Weds with very slow approach of the next upper trof/closed low from the west. For now, will keep the high POP numbers in place as we await the next runs. we should see all this unsettled weather settle down by Thurs as the main upper trof finally move across the region.
Water vapor imagery showing upper trough and secondary extension continues to drop southeast across the eastern CWA.
307 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2020 Recent water vapor imagery shows northwest flow over the western half of the CONUS with an upstream trough over the Gulf of Alaska. A modified cold front has recently pushed southeast of Kansas early this afternoon with residual low-level moisture and deep mixing keeping some lower cloud in place for much of the day, though this moisture and steeper lapse rates has given rise to very weak instability and spotty showers in central portions of the state, west of the local area. South winds will respond to lee troughing and should help push temps back into the mid 40s to around 50.
Otherwise, warmer temperatures are expected Saturday afternoon as a surface cyclone develops in the lee of the Rockies.
Saturday will be milder as frontal boundary moves east of the area as a warm front.
305 PM PST Fri Feb 7 2020 Slightly cooler temperatures this weekend.
310 PM MST Fri Feb 7 2020 Afternoon WV/IR imagery revealed little change in the large scale pattern with upper ridges off both coasts and a upper trough over the Eastern CONUS. An early afternoon sounding indicated a moist profile up to 500mb with weak instability in the low/mid levels. Occasional light snow will persist for the lower elevations along and west of the Laramie Range through this evening.
Still expect up to an inch accumulation with the highest amounts over our Illinois counties. Ridge will begin to slide off the east Saturday night as next system approaches region. Lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s. Will see some light snow at onset, especially along and east of MS River, then quickly transition to all rain as warmer air moves in.
The overnight flow from the north, even though it will be short-lived, it will help for temperatures to drop to the lower and mid 40s.
312 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2020 As an upper level ridge builds across the Rockies tonight, temperatures aloft will rise across the area. This will also push a stationary front northeast as a warm front overnight. Highs from the lower 50s southwest, and upper 40s western Sandhills to near 40 northeast. Northern Nebraska will primarily be affected as a cold front sweeps southeast overnight.
733 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 While high pressure will briefly overtake the region tonight, a cold front will bring a quick chance for showers Saturday evening.
Ridging will dominate the Mid-South with quiet weather and temperatures gradually warming through the weekend. The ridge will begin to push east Saturday evening as a front pushes into the region.
Snowfall of 1 to possibly 2 inches across the highest elevations can be expected. Chattanooga Airport, TN 31 47 30 59 47 / 30 70 10 0 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 30 43 29 55 44 / 10 60 10 0 30 Oak Ridge, TN 29 45 28 56 44 / 10 40 10 0 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 26 41 27 53 39 / 30 50 30 0 20 NC.
Warm and dry trend through Saturday as high pressure shifts over Central California.
Lowered min temps along the border into the lower 20s below zero as a result. A weak low over southern MN will continue to move south this afternoon and tonight, with high pressure across the Northern Plains into Ontario. Favored the lower edge of forecast guidance given the good setup for radiational with widespread lows in the -10 to -20 range from the Brainerd area to the international border.
400 PM PST Fri Feb 7 2020 Warm and dry trend through Saturday as high pressure shifts over Central California.
701 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 Diminished wind will occur farther behind the strong cold front and in a weakening pressure gradient ahead of the approaching pressure ridge tonight.
532 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2020 As an upper level ridge builds across the Rockies tonight, temperatures aloft will rise across the area. This will also push a stationary front northeast as a warm front overnight. Highs from the lower 50s southwest, and upper 40s western Sandhills to near 40 northeast. Northern Nebraska will primarily be affected as a cold front sweeps southeast overnight.
For now will likely issue a SPS highlighting the potential for some light snow impacting secondary roads as well as bridges and overpasses.
557 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2020 GOES water vapor/RAP 500mb analysis this afternoon showing a large long wave upper trough carved out across most of the CONUS. Meanwhile, a weak embedded short wave trough was progressing southeast across IA. Plan on lingering clouds/scattered flurries to continue tonight as the mid-level trough works through the area. High pressure builds in Saturday for increasingly sunny skies but highs will be a bit on the chilly side with readings only topping off in the teens and 20s.
A weak cold front will bring a northeasterly wind shift 09-12Z. /issued 212 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2020/ After today's weak cold front a few patches of fog will be possible Sat AM around sunrise.
334 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2020 A weak low over southern MN will continue to move south this afternoon and tonight, with high pressure across the Northern Plains into Ontario. Favored the lower edge of forecast guidance given the good setup for radiational with widespread lows in the -10 to -20 range from the Brainerd area to the international border.
An essentially dry cold front will pass through northern, and then central Nevada during the late morning through early evening on Saturday.
/issued 318 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2020/ Wx map shows weak high pressure over the NE Gulf of Mexico, with a weak cool front over NE TX and the ArkLaTex, moving southeast towards the region. Still a little cooler over Central and Southern Louisiana with temperatures in the lower to mid 60s where this area remains closer to the cooler air mass.
A cold front will bring a few showers to Del Norte and northern Humboldt counties late tonight and early Saturday, followed by cooler weather with some gusty winds during the day Saturday. The Pacific ridge will break down late tonight and into Saturday as a trough and associated frontal boundary digs southward. Cloud cover will further increase late today from N to S as the cold front approaches the area. Cooler air will filter in behind the cold front and bring afternoon and overnight temperatures down a few degrees starting on Saturday. Northerly winds will increase behind the front, particularly across exposed ridges and the usual coastal headlands. A quiet weather pattern will return late this weekend as high pressure builds back into the region.
Recent water vapor imagery shows northwest flow over the western half of the CONUS with an upstream trough over the Gulf of Alaska. A modified cold front has recently pushed southeast of Kansas early this afternoon with residual low-level moisture and deep mixing keeping some lower cloud in place for much of the day, though this moisture and steeper lapse rates has given rise to very weak instability and spotty showers in central portions of the state, west of the local area. South winds will respond to lee troughing and should help push temps back into the mid 40s to around 50.
An upper low and trough will move southeast out of western Canada across western Montana and Idaho and into the Great Basin area. It will sweep another cold front across the area as it passes through. Lift associated with this low will be over the eastern portions of Montana. This will be where the best chances for several inches of snow accumulation will be likely, as well as the higher elevations from the Beartooth Foothills east across southern Big Horn County.
As the low moves southeast along this front, warmer air will be drawn northward into Petroleum and portions of Garfield Counties.
723 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 While high pressure will briefly overtake the region tonight, a cold front will bring a quick chance for showers Saturday evening.
546 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2020 A weak low over southern MN will continue to move south this afternoon and tonight, with high pressure across the Northern Plains into Ontario. Favored the lower edge of forecast guidance given the good setup for radiational with widespread lows in the -10 to -20 range from the Brainerd area to the international border.
A cold upper level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest tonight, then settle into The Great Basin over the weekend.
For now will likely issue a SPS highlighting the potential for some light snow impacting secondary roads as well as bridges and overpasses. Expect snow showers for the higher elevations and included some -SNSH from 14Z to 17Z.
Dry advection in sfc ridging and backing wind should generally hamper snow efficiency later tonight as moisture depth through the boundary layer decreases, with snow showers becoming more isolated in nature. Deep troughing across the Great Lakes should flatten in response to an upstream Pacific NW low, with rising heights yielding a more quasi- zonal flow and gradual temperature moderation. In the system's wake, high pressure will build into the region as a strong wave digs swd along the west coast. Warm air aloft will be more than ample to ensure all rain during this time, with any changeover to snow limited to lingering precipitation immediately behind the cold front. Otherwise, brief sfc ridging should result in VFR conditions through Sat morning.
Broad upper trof still located over much of the eastern conus will continue to shift eastward through tonight. Near the base of the trof a weak mid level impulse will approach the forecast area from the west early today combined with sufficient moisture in the boundary layer allowing for a short period of light rainshowers moving southeastward across much of the forecast area mostly from late morning through early afternoon. Highs today will range from the lower to middle 60s for most inland areas and the middle 60s near the coast. Lows tonight will range from the lower to middle 40s for most inland areas and the middle 40s to near 50 near the immediate coast.
This boundary will be the focal point for heavier rain through the week, as upper low across the desert southwest opens and takes several days to move into the southeast US. Another upper trough will pass on Sat. Expect snow showers for the higher elevations and included some -SNSH from 14Z to 17Z.
Another dusting (1/2 inch) of snow is still possible especially across the higher elevations. Still expect most of the accumulations to be on grassy and elevated surface but the higher terrain could experience some travel issues. Chattanooga Airport, TN 31 47 30 59 47 / 30 70 10 0 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 29 42 29 55 44 / 10 60 10 0 30 Oak Ridge, TN 28 45 28 56 44 / 10 60 10 0 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 26 41 27 53 39 / 30 50 30 0 20 NC.