Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
257 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 A weak cold front is currently moving south across the area this afternoon. So, highs today and Tuesday will be in the middle to upper 80s with heat index values in the lower to middle 90s. The upper level ridge of high pressure will setup to the west of the area during the middle of the week into the weekend. A cold front is currently located across central Missouri into southeastern Kansas and will move south through the area this afternoon.
306 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Dry weather will gradually give way to more humid and warmer conditions mid and late week, as a slow moving cold front inches toward the area.
303 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 The subtropical ridge remains anchored over the Four Corners with northwest flow aloft across the MS Valley feeding into weak trough over the eastern CONUS. The cold front will be sagging slowly south on Tuesday and will serve as a focus for additional convective development.
The main upper level ridge is expected to meander across the southwest through much of the extended periods. with weak ridging locally giving way to multiple passing waves bringing small chances for showers and thunderstorms to the local area. The best chances look to be closer to day break and early morning, along with the lowest cigs we will see (still VFR).
The cold front is out of Lake Michigan at 300pm and should surge east this evening. MUCAPE values are on the lower side of the spectrum, around 1000 j/kg, but sufficient enough for storms. Beyond Tuesday, the forecast looks dry from mid week into the weekend with northwest flow aloft downstream of a plains ridge.
213 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019 20z surface analysis had weak high pushing into the eastern Dakotas and lee trough from central MT into eastern CO.
1224 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 At 2 AM, skies were rapidly transitioning to clear over the region as the trough that brought rain/storms yesterday continued to move eastward. Isolated areas of haze and fog were occurring along and south of Interstate 80, but this should mix out over the next couple hours as a secondary cold front continues to surge southward. Afternoon highs should be in the low to mid 80s.
Stagnant upper air pattern will persist as center of the upper high edges eastward toward the Panhandle toward midweek.
Through tomorrow Upper high, now centered roughly over the center of the Four Corners, will continue to dominate our weather in the short term as it slowly migrates eastward. Coupled with mostly clear skies, decent radiational cooling conditions will be present, allowing our temperatures to bottom out in the low to mid 60s. Tomorrow, the apex of the upper high will reach E NM.
307 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Updated at 305 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019 SW flow ahead of an approaching cold front has heated up the Ohio Valley with SDF currently at 94F and plenty of others at least touching 90. Could see some re-development by daybreak as the upper trof axis swings through on Tuesday. Look for POPs to taper off from NW to SE during the afternoon as a bubble of high pressure builds in from the Upper Midwest. Updated at 238 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Showers and storms will gradually exit the region Tuesday night ahead of a cold front. Thereafter, the pattern is mainly characterized by ridging across the western CONUS and troughing across the eastern CONUS. Upper trof swinging into the area could regenerate convection toward Tue morning.
Will likely see thunderstorms develop across the High Plains this afternoon, progressing into western Kansas this evening, although expecting this activity will likely remain west/northwest of the forecast area. Temperatures Tuesday will be 1-2 degrees warmer than today. Kleinsasser The forecast area will remain under the eastern periphery of a stout elevated mixed layer this week, as upper high pressure remains anchored over the central/southern Rockies. Thinking the highest chances will be across northern and eastern Kansas.
354 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019 High pressure remains centered over the New Mexico/Colorado border bringing plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures to the region. By tomorrow, the high pressure will slowly shift to the east which will tap into moisture down south and start bringing it northward. Ridge of high pressure to our south will continue to advect monsoonal moisture into the region through mid week.
A cold front and upper wave will move through central Indiana Tuesday and bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the area tonight. Then, high pressure will bring dry weather to the area through the rest of the week and weekend. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will be possible through the overnight hours as a cold front slowly sags through central Indiana. A weak cold front and upper trough will approach from the northwest tonight. Models in agreement that high pressure will build in from the northwest, and along with a dry column, bring dry weather and little cloud cover to the area through the entire short term. Ensembles indicate weak upper troughing will hold across the Ohio Valley through the extended, as upper ridging continues over the Rockies.
650 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Upper level pattern of ridge over the Rockies and trough to the east is in place. A consistently forecast vorticity maximum is expected to round the upper ridge late tonight into Tuesday, giving us a shot at some precip. This pattern will be stable for the rest of the forecast for the most part, with near to below temperatures and periodic small chances of rain as minor disturbances in mid-levels are allowed over our area as they round the ridge to the west.
High pressure will bring quiet weather for most of the week. Lows tonight should be in the middle to upper 50s west to the lower 60s near the lake. Highs will be cooler Tuesday, mainly in the middle 70s.
An Upper Level high pressure system will build in across the southwest CONUS mid-week through the weekend, keeping us in a generally northwest flow aloft.
/Issued 400 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019/ An upper level ridge located over the desert southwest is bringing northwesterly flow aloft across eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas. There is also a notable cold front set up northeast to southwest over northeastern Oklahoma slowly moving to the southeast. The aforementioned cold front is currently located from Nowata county southwestern through northern Tulsa county, and through Creek county. This cold front will be the focus for additional shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon and evening.
536 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019 High pressure remains centered over the New Mexico/Colorado border bringing plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures to the region. By tomorrow, the high pressure will slowly shift to the east which will tap into moisture down south and start bringing it northward. Ridge of high pressure to our south will continue to advect monsoonal moisture into the region through mid week.
727 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Dry weather will gradually give way to more humid and warmer conditions mid and late week, as a slow moving cold front approaches the area. In addition to adding some mugginess this will also keep Tuesday night's lows a few degrees warmer than tonight.
602 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Dry weather will gradually give way to more humid and warmer conditions mid and late week, as a slow moving cold front approaches the area. In addition to adding some mugginess this will also keep Tuesday night's lows a few degrees warmer than tonight.
515 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019 20z surface analysis had weak high pushing into the eastern Dakotas and lee trough from central MT into eastern CO.
726 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Mostly VFR through this taf cycle as a weak cold front approaches from the west.
629 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 A few wrap around showers are littered across the Northland mainly north and east of Duluth this afternoon as a low pressure system that impacted the area yesterday continues to lift to the northeast.
High pressure ridge axis shifts slightly eastward bringing dry southwest flow across the region. While there is still some moisture sticking around in the lower levels, the chances for thunderstorms will be fairly low the next few days. Looking towards midweek and into weekend, the high pressure ridge may build back westward across the Sierra and western Nevada.
/issued 205 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019/ Subtropical ridge was developing ewd and is forecast to be INVOF nw- n NM by 00Z/Tue. Across SE NM/PB ne mid-level has developed and a near stationary boundary was draped across the nrn CWFA that was juxtaposed with the mid-level theta-e ridge axis. Subtropical ridge will maintain a similar location Tue/Wed and as the chance of rain diminishes high temps will trend up, U90s-N100 most areas by Wed. By Thur-Fri 7h temps will be 2-3C warmer across SE NM and Upper Trans Pecos than the PB, still with mid-level ridge centered to the n high temps will not get too out of hand, U90s-103 PB/SE NM, of course hotter along the Rio Grande.
644 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows upper level trough over Ontario Canada and Upper Great Lakes Region. Temperatures currently are ranging from the lower 70s to the middle 80s across the forecast area.
Our rain chances will increase as the upper trough enters the mid state late tonight and through the morning, with convection diminishing during the afternoon as the surface front ushers in drier air.
956 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows upper level trough over Ontario Canada and Upper Great Lakes Region. Temperatures currently are ranging from the lower 70s to the middle 80s across the forecast area.
Southern Montana will be just on the periphery of the Great Basin ridge over the next several days.
Remainder of forecast looks fine as cold front continues to move southeast through the area. Latest surface map shows the wind shift with the cold front has reached near the I-55 corridor, however the drier air lags behind a bit in Iowa. The upper ridge over the Rockies will amplify as the week progresses, keeping the hot weather well to our west. While the highs gradually recover late this week, humidity levels are not expected to be excessive. The upper ridge will be far enough west that the nocturnal MCS's that develop are expected to remain west of the Mississippi River. Winds will be light and variable this evening with all sites except CMI behind the cold front.
Morning lows in the low 70s across the interior, approaching the mid 70s along the coast and urban locations.
A few showers have built in across portions of Central South Dakota this afternoon, but shouldn't last too long as they track further into an area of high pressure. Meanwhile, a weak disturbance riding southeast over a ridge of high pressure aloft will drop into South Dakota late tonight. By Tuesday afternoon, southeast winds will prevail, and could gust to 20-30 mph as the pressure gradient tightens some as the high pressure center shifts towards Lake Superior.
621 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Latest surface map shows the wind shift with the cold front has reached near the I-55 corridor, however the drier air lags behind a bit in Iowa. The upper ridge over the Rockies will amplify as the week progresses, keeping the hot weather well to our west. While the highs gradually recover late this week, humidity levels are not expected to be excessive. The upper ridge will be far enough west that the nocturnal MCS's that develop are expected to remain west of the Mississippi River. Winds will be light and variable this evening with all sites except CMI behind the cold front.
Showers and thunderstorms start to pop up again Tuesday afternoon for central Idaho, mostly in the higher elevations.
For the rest of tonight, cooler temperatures with lows in the 50s and 60s are expected along with some high clouds. This in response to a weak impulse riding over the top of the 4 corners upper high. Similar setup on Tuesday but the upper high looks to strengthen a bit over the area with convection looking more confined to the mtns near the Colorado border Tuesday afternoon as some warming at mid levels hinder development. Monsoonal moisture should begin returning more in earnest Weds and persist through the weekend as the upper high meanders around the 4 corners area.
An upper level trough currently located over the far eastern Pacific is not expected to budge much through the work week. This will cause temperatures much cooler than this past weekend across interior NorCal. Today's temperatures are running around 5 to 20 degrees cooler than yesterday, with the most significantly cooler temperatures in the Delta influenced areas. Valley and foothill temperatures will remain in the high 80s & 90s, and the mountains will remain in the 70s to 80s.
This will continue to edge across I-20 by daybreak as the cold front edges closer. /Tonight through Tuesday night/ Showers and thunderstorms to continue along a weak upper-level disturbance ahead of an approaching cold front this evening. Otherwise, high temperatures on Tuesday to range from the lower 80s across north Louisiana where rainfall is expected, to the lower 90s elsewhere. Low temperatures both tonight and Tuesday night to fall into the lowers 70s.
651 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 A weak cold front is currently moving south across the area this afternoon. So, highs today and Tuesday will be in the middle to upper 80s with heat index values in the lower to middle 90s. The upper level ridge of high pressure will setup to the west of the area during the middle of the week into the weekend.
638 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Cold front sinking southeast across forecast area. As of 19z, the cold front had moved through KUIN and KCOU.
1020 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Convection continues to wind down across the TN Valley and Southern Appalachian region tonight, all while a cold front approaches the OH/MS valley and a prefrontal trough moves across middle TN/KY. Per latest guidance, the front and trough axis are still progged to slide east on Tuesday, possibly slowing/stalling across the Plateau Tuesday night. Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 89 69 88 / 20 50 30 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 86 68 85 / 20 50 50 50 Oak Ridge, TN 69 86 68 86 / 20 50 40 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 85 65 84 / 10 50 50 60.
/issued 303 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019/ The subtropical ridge remains anchored over the Four Corners with northwest flow aloft across the MS Valley feeding into weak trough over the eastern CONUS. The cold front will be sagging slowly south on Tuesday and will serve as a focus for additional convective development.
821 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019 Unusually quiet this evening across the much of Southeast with weak high pressure situated over the region.
ridge into the western sections of the forecast area will limit the more broad scale lift necessary for widespread convection for this Tuesday morning and afternoon for the Pennyrile and southwest Indiana counties of the WFO PAH forecast area. by Tuesday evening, the main trough axis and frontal boundary will be east of the region, effectively shutting down any precipitation chances. Slight variations of the high resolution and medium range model guidance suggest some retrograding of the ridge axis and effective trough axis westward over the WFO PAH forecast area, allowing for some renewed convection over eastern sections of the WFO PAH forecast area.
337 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019 A quiet pattern will ensue through at least late week as the upper level high moves back overhead.
Still looking like roughly 800 mb to the surface will be more influenced by the high pressure to the east and remain somewhat dry and stable.
342 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019 A stalled frontal trough will provide the weakness over the area today to help focus better than average chances for precip. There are no indications that the upper level high will nudge too far east at this point, but it normally does about this time of year for a week or two. High pressure will dominate the northern Gulf, and this will result in light and variable winds of 10 knots or less through the period.
This area remained slightly unstable, with surface temps prevailing 5 to 10 degrees warmer than out west over the delta. /issued 303 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019/ The subtropical ridge remains anchored over the Four Corners with northwest flow aloft across the MS Valley feeding into weak trough over the eastern CONUS. The cold front will be sagging slowly south on Tuesday and will serve as a focus for additional convective development.
Despite the strengthening high pressure system that is meandering around the four corners region, the cloud cover across north central Nebraska will help keep temperatures cooler than the rest of the area on Tuesday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Portions of southwest Nebraska will begin to feel the effects of the high pressure system on Tuesday as highs will be in the lower 90s.
Remainder of forecast looks fine as cold front continues to move southeast through the area. Latest surface map shows the wind shift with the cold front has reached near the I-55 corridor, however the drier air lags behind a bit in Iowa. The upper ridge over the Rockies will amplify as the week progresses, keeping the hot weather well to our west. While the highs gradually recover late this week, humidity levels are not expected to be excessive. The upper ridge will be far enough west that the nocturnal MCS's that develop are expected to remain west of the Mississippi River.
305 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019 Skies are cloudy across much of the Mid-South early this morning with temperatures mainly in the low to mid 70s. A cold front currently extends from northwest Indiana through southern Missouri and into the Texas Panhandle. The cold front will continue to move south into the Mid-South later today. Temperatures will be a little cooler than yesterday with more clouds and the cold front passing through. The cold front should be moving out of the region tonight. High pressure will start to build into the region bringing dry weather for tonight.
453 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019 Along the Florida Keys, skies are mostly clear to partly cloudy with temperatures averaging in the lower 80s thanks to a light east to southeast wind of around 10 mph. An unusually deep mid and upper level trough digging equatorward into the east central Gulf of Mexico will move little, while a western Atlantic high pressure cell holds firm across the southern half of the Sunshine State.
High pressure will begin to drift eastward Tuesday but not before providing another hot day across the region.
The upper level trough axis to our west will shift east over our area during the short term period. The weak cold front will draw closer but will likely stall near our western border.
152 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019 A cold front will slowly move southeast across the region into Tuesday night. Clouds and pcpn will keep temperatures down in the lower 80s. High pressure will begin the period as it strengthens over the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes.
The northwest extent of the subtropical ridge will remain suppressed due to the influence of a deep trough extending from the Great Lakes through the Mississippi Valley.
250 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019 A large and nearly stationary upper level ridge of high pressure from the the Rockies to the western high plains will be the main weather influence for west Texas and southeast New Mexico the next several days.
A few wrap around showers are littered across the Northland mainly north and east of Duluth this afternoon as a low pressure system that impacted the area yesterday continues to lift to the northeast.
126 AM MDT Tue Jul 30 2019 Mean central Rockies ridging can be expected in the period with the upper jet and general fast flow expected over the region. Mean NE PAC trough will direct impulses into the northern periphery of the ridge, supporting unsettled flow over the region.
240 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019 High pressure centered in ND with ridge extending into eastern KS. Today and tonight: High pressure and a very dry airmass will bring clear skies and very comfortable temperatures and humidity to the cwa.
1147 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 A weak cold front is currently moving south across the area this afternoon. So, highs today and Tuesday will be in the middle to upper 80s with heat index values in the lower to middle 90s. The upper level ridge of high pressure will setup to the west of the area during the middle of the week into the weekend. Some patchy ground fog will be possible early in the period but with slightly drier air moving in behind a weak cold front, it should not be widespread.
236 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2019 For the short term, mid level ridge centered over the southwest CONUS will continue to expand to the north and east. Ring of fire short waves will continue to top this ridge and move across the region through the next couple days.
Upper level trough axis will be situated over the Central Great Lakes late this afternoon/evening, but the mid levels are not terribly cold, -11 C at 500 MB and 6 C at 700 MB.
The high will filter into the area through today behind the cold front that made its way through the Ozarks overnight. Mostly clear skies will occur today and through most of tonight with afternoon highs in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s thanks to a cooler and drier airmass.
Quiet conditions will continue today with clouds slowly increasing this morning in association with increased moisture in the low levels. This will bring a mostly cloudy day with high temperatures only into the low to mid 70s. With high pressure pushing in as well as the upper level ridge today is expected to be dry with potential for a bit of a lake breeze but overall no concerns are expected.
1159 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 The cold front has become rather diffuse this evening with light to calm winds across a good portion of the immediate area. Glass Cold front sinking southeast across forecast area. As of 19z, the cold front had moved through KUIN and KCOU.
South winds on the backside of the departing high pressure system will aid in mixing and keep temps up into the 50s for most tonight. The exception will be across the eastern forested areas where high pressure ridge axis may linger with calm winds allowing for a few upper 40s.
Early morning analysis places well-advertised and expansive low level ridging nosing into our area but centered over the Northern Plains/Manitoba/Saskatchewan. Not much to stop it from overtaking the area today and sticking around through late week as low level ridging very slowly meanders through the region.
A broad upper level ridge of high pressure was in place over the central and northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this morning.
1109 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019 20z surface analysis had weak high pushing into the eastern Dakotas and lee trough from central MT into eastern CO.
Northern and eastern areas (Ord to Osceola to York) may remain in the upper 70s, but portions of northern Kansas could reach the low 90s.
356 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019 Pattern in the short term period defined by large upper trough over the eastern CONUS with weak flow at the base of the trough over the southeast states.
1113 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019 High pressure remains centered over the New Mexico/Colorado border bringing plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures to the region. By tomorrow, the high pressure will slowly shift to the east which will tap into moisture down south and start bringing it northward. Ridge of high pressure to our south will continue to advect monsoonal moisture into the region through mid week.
A cold front, and its parent upper level trough, will move across the region today and tonight.
1229 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019 Dry weather will gradually give way to more humid and warmer conditions mid and late week, as a slow moving cold front approaches the area. In addition to adding some mugginess this will also keep Tuesday night's lows a few degrees warmer than tonight.
1138 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019 A few wrap around showers are littered across the Northland mainly north and east of Duluth this afternoon as a low pressure system that impacted the area yesterday continues to lift to the northeast.