Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Our region is located in the north northwesterly flow on the leading edge of the the upper level ridge feature. A minor short wave trof progresses through this pattern, with the associated surface front moving through the area and leaving some moisture across portions of the region. An approaching North Pacific Trof absorbs the Omega Block western low, allowing the trof to deepen. In response, the ridge portion of the Omega Block strengthens and an upper level closed area of higher heights forms over Washington State.
Behind this cold front tonight, a hard freeze is expected for most locations north and east of Fort Peck Lake.
The highest PoPs are located across Martin and Okeechobee counties.
A cold front will be held up along the lower OH River Valley west through the I-40 corridor into OK. Afternoon highs will reach the low to mid 80s before cloud cover begins to increase later this afternoon due to isentropic lifting.
617 AM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 (Today and tonight) Mostly clear skies with a dry airmass will prevail today with high pressure across the area. High temperatures today are expected to reach the low to mid 80s. Overnight low temperatures are expected to range from the lower 50s across the normally cooler inland locations to the low to mid 60s along the coast.
(Today and tonight) Mostly clear skies with a dry airmass will prevail today with high pressure across the area. High temperatures today are expected to reach the low to mid 80s. Overnight low temperatures are expected to range from the lower 50s across the normally cooler inland locations to the low to mid 60s along the coast.
438 AM MDT Sat Oct 15 2022 A cold front that is now moving through Montana will enter northern Wyoming early this morning and drop southward across the state. This will usher in some cooler but not cold air to the area through the day. It will feel a lot cooler today through, especially given the wind and the recent above normal temperatures. The rest of the period will feature quiet weather as a strong upper level high builds over the northern Rockies and brings some delightful autumn weather with plenty of sunshine and mild temperatures. Sunday will still be cooler, especially across eastern areas but less wind and more sunshine should make it feel warmer.
Upper level energy associated with wide trough moving into the East Coast, combined with stalled boundary south the area and lingering moisture should support isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms today. On Sunday, weak high pressure builds across the Southeast and drier airmass settles into the area.
955 AM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 High pressure in the area for the weekend will lead to continued dry weather across the area.
639 AM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 High pressure in the area for the weekend will lead to continued dry weather across the area.
613 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 (Today) Water vapor imagery shows an upper trough shifting east through the Great Lakes. A cold front was dropping southeast into southern IN through southeast MO into central OK this morning. Otherwise, expect another warm day with highs in the lower 80s.
638 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 (Today through Sunday) The start of the short term period will remain fairly quiet as high pressure sits just to our east and a large stable and dry airmass remains in place aloft.
A dry cold front has pushed through the forecast area with winds out of the west-northwest around 10-15mph. Long wave trof remains over Southern Canada and the Eastern CONUS. Lows to range from near 40 to the lower 40s.
313 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Breezy and mild weather is expected across central Illinois on Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front.
Blocking pattern along the west coast will continue to produce dry weather through the short term.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) Tonight through Sunday night, an upper level low will be moving across Baja Mexico and into Arizona, with strong moisture advection ahead of the low and isentropic lift bringing scattered to numerous showers and storms into the region tonight through Sunday morning.
1247 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Though cooler today, temperatures will still climb above climo across the area. A secondary upper trof will slide southeastward across the Upper Midwest tonight. This will send a secondary cold front south across the area with even cooler air for Sunday closer to mid-October climo. The RAP seems to be a reasonable compromise of the NAM/GFS, depicting weak to modest elevated instability along/south of the highway 54 corridor.
Chilly with brisk NW winds Sunday Discussion: Tonight, a weak cold front will move across the CWA with winds diminishing and becoming northwest this evening. We will be on the periphery of cyclonic flow to the NE and high pressure building into the MO River valley. Temperatures will struggle to reach the low 50s along Highway 20 with mid 50s to near 60 south of Highway 30.
102 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Dry high pressure will reside over the area through the weekend.
1249 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 (Today and tonight) One last warm and dry day across West Central Texas ahead of the the front bringing cooler and wetter conditions starting on Sunday. Temperatures starting off this morning 10-20 degrees warmer than yesterday, so afternoon readings pushing near the 90 degree mark this afternoon looks reasonable. Cold front moves south across the Red River Valley tonight, likely reaching near I-20 from Sweetwater to Abilene by sunrise Sunday morning. Front doesn't arrive in enough time to have much in the way of an effect on temperatures yet so lows in the low to mid 60s looks on target.
Outside of this potential, a beautiful afternoon and evening will continue across the Tennessee Valley as breezy southwest flow keeps warm temperatures over the area and highs top out in the low to mid 80s.
1223 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 High pressure will extend across the region through the weekend.
Warmer west to southwest winds behind a passing weak frontal boundary have also pushed temperatures back into the 50s to low 60s, although with low dewpoints this has led to near elevated fire weather concerns over portions of the area. Changes are afoot as a Canadian airmass is dislodged south as a deep upper low digs into the Great Lakes Region, which will give way to our coldest stretch of weather yet this fall season. Cold front crosses the forecast area this evening into tonight.
121 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Aviation - Break In Precip Today - Showers will come to an end this morning as a cold front with its associated showers swing east. Conditions should stay generally quiet today but cooler with highs peaking around 50.
309 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Currently, broad troughing exists from mid-America through the eastern CONUS. Meanwhile, a cut-off low continues to dwell over Baja.
Today will be another day of dry and warm conditions as an upper ridge remains centered to our west. Breezy east-southeast winds will develop during the afternoon in response to a thermal trough to the west and high pressure to our east.
Meanwhile, surface analysis late this morning places a cold front from Lake Erie back through Kentucky and into Northwest Tennessee, Northern Arkansas, and Oklahoma.
High pressure ridging builds overhead tonight through the middle of the coming week for mild and dry weather. Much cooler, wetter, and windy weather would accompany this potential change. Although the potential still exists for the high pressure ridge to hold on with mild and dry conditions, the more likely scenario is a major pattern change.
328 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 High pressure will provide dry and cool weather tonight.
132 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 High pressure in the area for the weekend will lead to continued dry weather across the area.
A cold front is expected to push through the CWA tomorrow and will be accompanied by a relatively thin channel of moisture, which together with an upper-level speed max will generate isolated to scattered showers across portions of north Georgia Sunday evening into the overnight period. Some locales across north Georgia could be a tad cooler tomorrow thanks to increased mid-level and upper-level cloud cover associated with the front.
(This evening through Sunday night) A cold front has pulled up stationary west to east across the Texas Panhandle just north of the Canadian River this afternoon. Low pressure was found over the southwest Texas Panhandle. The cold front surges southward overnight and this will likely trigger additional thunderstorms. Added lift from an approaching closed upper level low will also help to bring showers and thunderstorms, especially to the southern Texas Panhandle late tonight through Sunday. The upper level low continues to slowly track this way and the persistent lift from this low may produce more showers into Sunday night. The high temperature forecast for Sunday remains tricky.
While this cu should diminish by or shortly after sunset, elevated cigs will increase this evening and overnight from convection that will develop along and just S of a cold front over Nrn OK and NCntrl AR.
230 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 (Issued 230 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022) Tonight through Sunday night: A cold front will swing through the area tonight. Once the cold front moves through there will be a period of caa that'll persist into Sunday. With low pressure strengthening to our east into Sunday night the cold advection/low level thermal trough will be amplifying across the area.
Water vapor loop continues to show large upper low rotating over Ontario. Continued to keep some chance to likely POPs late this afternoon and evening, with decreasing showers later tonight and into tomorrow as the upper low begins to pull further away from the region and high pressure builds into the Northern Plains. Highs tomorrow will be a bit cooler than today, with some spots across the north not getting above 30 degrees.
Look for widespread Sunday morning lows near or below freezing. Sunday through much of the week, upper ridging from the west will maintain mainly dry weather conditions over the region and a rebound in temperatures.
Clear skies offering abundant sunshine today and through the entire weekend under a dry west- northwesterly flow aloft and influence of surface ridging. An onshore breeze will commence along the First Coast amid slight tightening of the local pressure gradient this afternoon as high pressure builds along the GA/SC coast. The onshore winds blowing across cooling nearshore waters (SSTs in upper 70s) will keep the beaches cooler this afternoon with highs in the low 80s.
151 PM MDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Latest upper air analysis shows a ridge over the Great Basin and a trough over the Midwest. Both the trough and the ridge appear to have a closed center, indicating both these features will be quite slow advecting downstream. Satellite imagery shows mid and high clouds over the Northern Plains between the ridge and the trough. At the surface a weak cold front had moved through the forecast area. However am expecting highs to be cooler than today. The cooler air and lower dew points will allow lows to fall into the mid 20s and low 30s across the forecast area. Given the cooler temperatures coming in, have issued a freeze watch for the entire forecast area.
As the same low pressure system that brought the first snowfall to the Upper Midwest traverses the northern periphery of the Ohio Valley, generally quiet weather is expected until Sunday night.
(This evening through Sunday) Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected tonight and tomorrow as a strong cold front approaches the CWA from the north and then sweeps south through West Texas. Rain is expected to form in two general areas tonight; one in southeast New Mexico forming under a corridor of stronger upper level winds and the other along the approaching cold front in the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle. After the passage of the cold front, strong deep-layer isentropic ascent will overtake the CWA and allow for continued precipitation through the end of Sunday afternoon.
More widespread thunderstorms are expected to develop during the evening in response to the approaching stronger cold front. Deep layer moisture will continue to increase overnight in advance of the line, given the influence of the flow around the upper low in the southwestern United States.
148 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 (Today and tonight) Mostly clear skies with a dry airmass will prevail today with high pressure across the area. High temperatures today are expected to reach the low to mid 80s. Overnight low temperatures are expected to range from the lower 50s across the normally cooler inland locations to the low to mid 60s along the coast.
330 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 High pressure will lead to dry weather this weekend.
(This evening through Sunday) Strong to marginally severe storms are expected to develop north of I-40, along a cold front that is slowly moving southward. Steep mid-level lapse rates will help foster moderate CAPE values this afternoon ahead of the slowly-advancing cold front. High temperatures tomorrow afternoon behind the cold front will be in the upper 60s for most of the area, as cloudy skies will likely stick around through the day.
It will still remain mild in the high mountain valleys with minimal influence from the cold advection and clouds along/east of the Front Range. Low temperatures should be down to the low 30s across most of the plains, and upper 20s in the low-lying cold spots. Through about mid week, there will be a generally north- northwesterly, decreasing flow aloft over Colorado as the ridge continues to build over the western states and the deep upper low stays over the Great Lakes.
242 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Dry high pressure will reside over the area through the weekend.
/22 (Now through Sunday) A dry zonal flow pattern aloft will persist across our region through the weekend along the base of a broad upper level trough that will continue to extend across the eastern CONUS. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 50s over interior areas and in the upper 50s to mid 60s along the immediate coast and beaches. The rip current risk is borderline on the LOW-MODERATE threshold along area beaches today, especially on the FL panhandle side given the elevated swell period and outgoing tide this morning. Think the overall rip current risk trends down later this morning and through the weekend so we will keep the LOW risk advertised for now.
253 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 High pressure centered over the southwest corner of Indiana will gradually weaken and drift east over the next 12 hours. Meanwhile, an upstream short wave which is currently moving south through the Upper Midwest will continue its dive and phase up with another wave moving through the High Plains. The combined wave will push a cold front through Missouri and Illinois late tonight into Sunday morning. The front initially hangs up over the Ozarks Sunday morning, and deterministic guidance shows weak to moderate moisture convergence above it at 850mb due to southerly flow on the western side of the ridge over the Southeast U.
An upper ridge of high pressure will then move into the Northern Rockies later tonight into the upcoming week. This ridge will bring dry and mild weather to the region under partly to mostly clear skies.
As aforementioned midlevel trof digs SE of the area tonight into early tomorrow, low-level CAA will increase, particularly across the ern half of our area. Though thermal trof will be along/east of the Red River Valley by midday/aftn tomorrow, cooler temps should extend far enough west to bring 5-15 F lower highs over the wrn/cntrl SD plains tomorrow.
312 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 High pressure will build in through the weekend.
upper ridge and an eastern U. trough will maintain a northwest flow through the short term period. A cold front has moved through the forecast area. Cold high pressure traverses the forecast area on Sunday. ridge and eastern U.
347 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Northwesterly flow aloft persists across the area driven by an upper level low over the Great Lakes region extending a trough across most of the eastern CONUS. Another low is making its way across the desert Southwestern United States, and high pressure is moving across the northwestern United States. At the surface, northwesterly winds are moving into the area extending from high pressure diving southeast across Alberta/Saskatchewan into the north central Plains, and that is what is bringing gusts this afternoon into the 20 to 30 mph range. The main story will be the high extending further south, advecting cold air further into the area. As the high shifts over, northwesterly winds will increase to around 15-20 mph.
231 PM MDT Sat Oct 15 2022 The CWA remained wedged between a deep expansive upper trough over the eastern CONUS and high amplitude upper ridge to the west. Northwest winds will be breezy at times over the high plains Sunday afternoon. More widespread freezing temperatures are forecast east of the Laramie Range Sunday night with minima from 26F to 32F. Most of these zones have already experienced freezing temperatures.
High pressure over the southeastern CONUS will begin to sag towards the southeast in response to a trough digging into the great lakes states tonight into tomorrow. With the ridge moving farther to the southeast, winds will freshen out of the northeast this evening through Sunday in response to the tightening gradient.
The mid to upper level pattern will continue to be dominated by a large trough/cut off low over the Central and Eastern U.
We are looking for much of this activity to generally form in association with the cold front, which will be moving into the Big Country during the morning hours. Some minor flooding issues in the low lying areas and flood prone locations seem like the most likely issues we may see.
605 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 High pressure centered over the southwest corner of Indiana will gradually weaken and drift east over the next 12 hours. Meanwhile, an upstream short wave which is currently moving south through the Upper Midwest will continue its dive and phase up with another wave moving through the High Plains. The combined wave will push a cold front through Missouri and Illinois late tonight into Sunday morning. The front initially hangs up over the Ozarks Sunday morning, and deterministic guidance shows weak to moderate moisture convergence above it at 850mb due to southerly flow on the western side of the ridge over the Southeast U.
638 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 (This evening through Sunday) Strong to marginally severe storms are expected to develop north of I-40, along a cold front that is slowly moving southward. Steep mid-level lapse rates will help foster moderate CAPE values this afternoon ahead of the slowly-advancing cold front. High temperatures tomorrow afternoon behind the cold front will be in the upper 60s for most of the area, as cloudy skies will likely stick around through the day.
Today and Tonight: An amplified upper ridge will extend from the eastern subtropical Pacific through the Pacific Northwest States and southwest Canada. Meanwhile a closed upper low will move onshore over northern Baja. At the surface, weak upper troughing will exist just offshore from CA and this will induce a more southerly wind component across the area for today.
702 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Dry high pressure will reside over the area through the weekend.
633 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 (This evening through Sunday night) A cold front has pulled up stationary west to east across the Texas Panhandle just north of the Canadian River this afternoon. Low pressure was found over the southwest Texas Panhandle. The cold front surges southward overnight and this will likely trigger additional thunderstorms. Added lift from an approaching closed upper level low will also help to bring showers and thunderstorms, especially to the southern Texas Panhandle late tonight through Sunday. The upper level low continues to slowly track this way and the persistent lift from this low may produce more showers into Sunday night. The high temperature forecast for Sunday remains tricky.
549 PM MDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Latest upper air analysis shows a ridge over the Great Basin and a trough over the Midwest. Both the trough and the ridge appear to have a closed center, indicating both these features will be quite slow advecting downstream. Satellite imagery shows mid and high clouds over the Northern Plains between the ridge and the trough. At the surface a weak cold front had moved through the forecast area. However am expecting highs to be cooler than today. The cooler air and lower dew points will allow lows to fall into the mid 20s and low 30s across the forecast area. Given the cooler temperatures coming in, have issued a freeze watch for the entire forecast area.
An area of high pressure will begin to move into the area overnight, helping keep conditions dry and skies clear. Temperatures are expected to cool off into the mid to upper 60s west of I-95 and the low 70s along the coast. Beautiful weather is expected on Sunday, with PoPs less than 10% and skies remaining clear as an area of high pressure continues to move slowly eastward towards the Atlantic.
644 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Currently, broad troughing exists from mid-America through the eastern CONUS. Meanwhile, a cut-off low continues to dwell over Baja.
We had multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms move across the Florida Keys, especially the Lower Keys.
This afternoon through Sunday night A cold front continues to rush southward this morning and could reach Rock Springs/Green River by midday. High pressure over the PACNW today will shift further east toward the Northern Rockies Sunday.
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX 638 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 (This afternoon through Sunday night) Tonight through Sunday night, an upper level low will be moving across Baja Mexico and into Arizona, with strong moisture advection ahead of the low and isentropic lift bringing scattered to numerous showers and storms into the region tonight through Sunday morning.
703 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 High pressure will build in through the weekend.
These storms are expected to continue and to grow greater in coverage as the low level jet cranks up overnight and a stronger frontal boundary approaches form the north.
510 PM MDT Sat Oct 15 2022 The CWA remained wedged between a deep expansive upper trough over the eastern CONUS and high amplitude upper ridge to the west. Northwest winds will be breezy at times over the high plains Sunday afternoon. More widespread freezing temperatures are forecast east of the Laramie Range Sunday night with minima from 26F to 32F. Most of these zones have already experienced freezing temperatures.
811 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Breezy and mild weather is expected across central Illinois on Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front.
(Rest of tonight) The local forecast area will remain under the influence of broad scale cyclonic flow aloft overnight, to the south of an upper low over eastern Ontario. Temps will be a bit warmer compared to previous nights, with lows ranging from the mid 50s (SE) to u50s-l60s (NW).
621 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 (This evening through Sunday) Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected tonight and tomorrow as a strong cold front approaches the CWA from the north and then sweeps south through West Texas. Rain is expected to form in two general areas tonight; one in southeast New Mexico forming under a corridor of stronger upper level winds and the other along the approaching cold front in the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle. After the passage of the cold front, strong deep-layer isentropic ascent will overtake the CWA and allow for continued precipitation through the end of Sunday afternoon.
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX 640 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 (This afternoon through Sunday night) Tonight through Sunday night, an upper level low will be moving across Baja Mexico and into Arizona, with strong moisture advection ahead of the low and isentropic lift bringing scattered to numerous showers and storms into the region tonight through Sunday morning.