Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 349 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017/ A deep upper trough centered over AZ this morning will continue to move east today. Weak upper ridging will keep temperatures on the warm side, but winds should remain fairly light through midweek.
Upper trough over the Four Corners region will eject into the Plains this evening into Monday, providing our area a chance for precipitation. Models continue to split apart the upper trough, with one piece of energy tracking into the Dakotas with the other lingering across the Southern Plains and Gulf region.
Based on guidance trends from last night which were too cool, used the lowest three hourly temperatures from guidance for lows at most spots. Monday Night Through Sunday A cold front sweeping through the region on Monday night will bring moderate rainfall as it sweeps through the western Great Lakes.
331 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 A weak cool front will drop south through the region tonight followed by slightly cooler but still mild air.
255 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 An upper level trough will shift off the Carolina coast this afternoon.
1226 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 Low pressure passes well to the north this afternoon as a weak cold front north of the area dissipates. Another cold front moves through the area tonight.
1019 AM MST Sun Feb 19 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over north central MT, with warm front extending east-southeast across eastern MT into northern SD. Upper level analysis shows a ridge over eastern portions of the plains and into the MS river valley, with trough off the pacific NW coast and a cutoff low over the southwest US. Cloud cover and warmer air in place is keeping temps on the mild side, mostly upper 30s to lower 50s. Temps look warm enough for rainfall across much of the area, with a mix possible across the higher Black Hills later tonight before showers exit. Cooler air will filter in, but temps will continue to be well above average, highs in the 50s and lower 60s.
Even warmer temperatures can be expected today as an upper level ridge builds over the region. Persistent southerly winds and more sunshine will support a warmer day. An upper level trough now out west will makes it way eastward. The upper level trough and associated Pacific front will push eastward across the region on Monday. Rising 500 MB heights and a more zonal pattern will follow the passage of the upper level trough.
1217 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 A weak cold front will approach from the north today and will drop south through the region tonight. High pressure will build in from the northwest Monday and will crest over the area Monday night.
Available moisture at this time remains confined to the lower levels thus yielding zero rain chance for today. Deep trof now over the southwest conus and extending south through old Mexico progged to trek east and into the the south plains Monday. High end rain chances continue through Monday night as trof evolves into a closed low over Texas and moves into the western gulf.
Better lift approaches this evening as the main upper level trough approaches. Warm again tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 70s.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): Satellite and radar images indicate showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to develop across portions of northern Mexico northward across portions of southwest Texas and the Big Bend region ahead of the 500mb trough moving eastward across the southwest United States and northwest Mexico this afternoon. Drier air will filter into the western portions of the CWA Monday into Monday night as the flow aloft veers from the south to southwest and eventually west as a cut-off low develops across southwest TX and moves across deep south TX Tues night.
151 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 Ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather pattern over the state through the short term.
950 AM MST Sun Feb 19 2017 Upper level low has lifted into Central Arizona early this morning and will continue drifting northeast this morning into the Four Corners Region where best pressure falls continue. The low will continue to travel northeast in central Colorado by this afternoon as it fills and phases with northern stream energy. Overall warm nature to this system will limit most significant impacts to the nocturnal hours, when temps will be the lowest, allowing slush, ice and snow packed conditions to develop on the higher mountain highways. An upper level ridge axis over the area will be dampened and suppressed southward Monday night as the next upper level trough approaches the West Coast.
130 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 An upper level trough will shift off the Carolina coast by early this afternoon.
123 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 The ribbon of boundary layer moisture is hanging tough across the lower Ohio river valley and is stubborn to disperse in entirety. Additional clouds upstream now moving into AR will begin to make their way into the Quad State Monday, as the upper ridge slides east.
An upper- level disturbance off the Carolina coast continues to track eastward into the western Atlantic, with a weak frontal zone extending south into the local Atlantic waters, as high pressure and upper-level ridging build slowly across the region in its wake. Despite excellent mixing, low-level moisture continues to remain the highest it has been in some time, with a PWAT value off the 12z observed KMFL sounding a little over 1. The short term period will feature dry and tranquil as high pressure continues to ridge in from the north along with upper-level ridging aloft.
/Tonight through Monday/ Low pressure over the lee side of the Rockies combined with high pressure through the lower Ohio Valley have led to an increasing pressure gradient and southerly flow into Iowa. This moisture will continue to surge north overnight as the low level jet intensifies.
but we've seen enough clearing elsewhere for temps to warm back into the lower/mid 70s. Precipitation chances will wind down Monday morning across eastern OK and by late afternoon/evening across western AR as the upper trof axis gradually shifts east.
223 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 Well, the clouds lingered around a bit longer than anticipated today, and robbed us of slightly warmer temperatures. Monday will see the upper ridge axis cross overhead, so temps look to be warmer than today, with most of the mid state seeing low to mid 70s.
Also warmer than normal temperatures early before returning to normal late. The main region with the highest concentration of moisture will be along the Flint Hills region and areas eastward.
Thereafter, slightly drier air will spill in from the north with high pressure building in. High pressure will settle in north of the waters today and tonight, resulting in a light easterly flow.
1213 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 High pressure will build into the region today before sliding east of the Ohio Valley on Monday.
Upper trough is tracking into central Oregon this morning with showers developing across southeast Oregon.
In the low levels, strengthening south winds ahead of a deepening lee trough over the High Plains have hastened the poleward flux of an increasingly moist boundary-layer into the mid MO Valley with 20z dewpoints commonly in the upper 40s to lower 50s. The showers and thunderstorms are expected to shift to the east of the area by late morning or early afternoon with no additional convective activity anticipated along the trailing wind shift/weak cold front which will advance across the area during the afternoon.
/Issued 440 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017/ Short wave exiting the CWA and rapid improvement will occur this morning with an H5 ridge building over the CWA through the short term.
The low clouds have broken up quite a bit across the Plains today, but expecting these to redevelop later tonight as deeper low level moisture begins reaching the area. The low level moisture increase will bring us monthly record lows tonight if we remain warm enough until midnight Monday night.
A cold front is then forecast to move across the TAF sites Monday morning, with northwest to north winds in its wake. The upper level low is located in southwestern Arizona this morning and is expected to track towards the 4 corners. As the upper level low opens up as it crosses the area, the region will be placed in northwest flow.
150 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 An upper level trough will shift off the Carolina coast this afternoon.
1020 AM MST Sun Feb 19 2017 An upper level trof will move northeastward over CO this afternoon and tonight, and will move east of the state for Mon. Temps today will be above average in most areas, with highs in the 60s acrs the southeast plains and in the 40s to lower 50s in the high valleys. By late night, as the upper trof moves ovr far eastern CO, pcpn wl decrease and then end ovr most locations, with maybe just a few lingering showers over some of the mtns toward Mon morning.
The cirrus have been variable enough with the gusty south winds to push temperatures up into the lower and mid 60s. Despite the higher dewpoints and a few more clouds, we are running about five degrees ahead of yesterday. Early morning objective surface analysis indicated the ridge axis now extended over the mid and upper Mississippi River Valley with a lee trough developing from eastern CO into WY.
Temperatures will not be able to fall much tonight, thanks not only to a warm front setting up just to our north, but increased cloud cover. Kept with the idea of gusty winds developing behind the low, with 25kt winds common from 16-23Z.
The positive upper height anomaly associated with the highly split flow currently across North America will consolidate over James Bay the next few days, then rapidly weaken and shift east.
348 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 It's been a warm day across the ArkLaMiss region as upper ridging remains firmly in place over the region. Temperatures this afternoon have warmed into the upper 70s across the Highway 82 corridor and the lower 80s elsewhere.
Weak winds associated with a departing ridge of high pressure will likely lead to fog formation once again tonight, with a potential of some dense fog late tonight into early Monday morning.
1130 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 Low pressure passes well to the north this afternoon as a weak cold front north of the area dissipates. Another cold front moves through the area tonight.
219 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 After some overnight and morning fog in the low lying areas and valleys, most of the area has seen some sunshine this afternoon. Most locations were in the low to mid 70s, with the exception of where the clouds are still holding on, where readings were still in the mid 60s. Upper level ridge axis was transitioning eastward across the area today with some low level warm advection, aiding in the very warm February temperatures. The ridge will depart to the east tonight with a trough of low pressure gradually moving in from the west late tonight into Monday. The trough will gradually push across the area on Monday into Monday night, with most of the precipitation ending by 12z Tue.
1133 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 A weak cold front will cross the area today.
Latest water vapor images show a long-wave upper level trough axis extending from the Intermountain West southeast into the four corners region. Since the upper level trough/cutoff low could be right on top of us during the afternoon hours, decided to keep slight chances for showers and storms mainly east of Highway 183.
/issued 353 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017/ Midlevel clouds associated with a departing upper level low quickly dissipated early this morning. Otherwise, an amplified upper level ridge axis will move over the Midsouth today, with temperatures warming to readings 15 to 20 degrees above normal. The upper ridge lift to Appalachia by Monday, as a phased northern branch and southern branch upper trof approaches from the plains.
217 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 Upper trough over AZ this morning will push east today passing over the region tomorrow. In its wake high pressure will build over the area.
A strengthening area of low pressure west of the region will bring breezy southerly winds and warm temperatures into the area today. While highs on Monday will be cooler, they will still range several degrees above normal.
148 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 The ribbon of boundary layer moisture is hanging tough across the lower Ohio river valley and is stubborn to disperse in entirety. Additional clouds upstream now moving into AR will begin to make their way into the Quad State Monday, as the upper ridge slides east.
Model guidance is in fairly good agreement that widespread showers and storms will develop early this eve well west of SE TX across central/north TX ahead of a slow eastward moving longwave mid/upper level trough. The fairly unidirectional s/sw flow in the low-mid layers of the atmosphere points to the possibility of cell training in this very moist airmass. A trailing mid/upper low that hangs around on Tue and this feature will extend the chc of showers into Tues, but no heavy rainfall is expected with this feature.
Deep layer ridging will prevail overnight, with dry northerly flow gradually becoming more easterly. Lows will fall into the lower 50s region-wide.
157 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 An elongated trough from Montana down through northern Mexico has started to slowly progress to the east and interact with the large ridge currently in place over the midwest. The main areas of lift will split our general area with the cold frontal boundary lifting north and the stronger isentropic accent staying to the south.
Clouds will gradually lift and scatter somewhat this afternoon, but should remain mostly BKN with cigs in the low VFR category through early this evening. SE winds at 5-10 kts on average will prevail through the period and increasing moisture leading to MVFR/IFR cigs returning after 20/06Z with showers and thunderstorms moving into our E TX terminals ahead of a strong upper level trough out across W TX by early Monday morning.
An elongated upper level trough will continue east across the eastern Great Basin today.
249 PM MST Sun Feb 19 2017 Current surface analysis shows weak low pressure over northeast WY, with warm front extending east across northern SD. Upper level analysis shows a ridge over eastern portions of the plains and into the MS river valley, with trough off the pacific NW coast and a weakening low over the Four Corners region. Temps look warm enough for rainfall across much of the area, with a mix possible across the higher Black Hills later tonight before showers exit. Cooler air will filter in, but temps will continue to be well above average, highs in the 50s and lower 60s. Flat ridge will build back into the area Monday night with quiet weather expected.
Upper level ridge building across the Lower Mississippi Valley as the upper level trough that brought us some showers yesterday moves off the Carolina coast. Skies have cleared out this afternoon and temps have warmed into the low to mid 70s. High pressure will continue building aloft and at the surface on Monday, and another warm day expected with temperatures reaching the upper 70s to low 80s.
336 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 Stout southerly flow expected across the area tonight in advance of a cold front approaching fro the west. Have kept lows near record levels for the month of February in the low and mid 50s. Cold front will work its way across the forecast area on Monday. Once the cold front moves through, atmosphere becomes more stable and quickly dries out in the low levels. With clouds hanging tough east of I-29 ahead of the front for a better part of the day, kept temperatures towards cooler guidance values.
259 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 A weak cold front will move farther offshore tonight. High pressure will build in from the northwest Monday and will crest over the area Monday night.
1004 AM MST Sun Nov 6 2016 08z surface analysis had high pressure over the Midwest with lee trough from central MT into eastern CO. Southerly flow east of the trough is bringing a slug of boundary layer moisture north from central KS/NE early this morning. Upper trough depicted on water vapour over WA/OR will zip across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains through Monday, pushing upper ridge east. Weakening upper trough over WY/CO will link up to northern stream feature. Cold front will then sweep through CWA tonight with cooler temperatures for Monday, but readings will still be 10F above normal. Western upper ridge rebuilds over the Northern Plains by mid week, with dry conditions and very mild temperatures continuing.
246 PM EST Sun Nov 6 2016 High pressure will persist across the region into the middle of the week.
1244 PM EST Sun Nov 6 2016 High pressure contiues to slide east allowing for another quiet night tonight.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): Persistent longwave trough continues to slowly progress eastward across the central us, with south Texas on the very base of the trough.
327 PM EST Sun Nov 6 2016 High pressure continues to slide east allowing for another quiet night tonight.
A cold front which moved through western Montana and central Idaho this morning has resulted in breezy conditions this afternoon, particularly across northwest Montana and near the Continental Divide. A ridge of high pressure will begin to build into the area tonight. The one exception is across far northwest Montana valleys (Libby, Troy, Yaak) where today's precipitation and lack of wind has allowed the low levels to become very saturated, favoring potentially more widespread fog. High pressure will become established through at least mid week.
Expect temperatures to be a degree or two cooler than currently fcst at spots that see more opacity, and a degree or two warmer where clouds are thinner. Have blended latest short-term models and come up with a high temperature solution today that's a tad cooler in some spots but, overall, shows very little change from previous forecast--which is always a nice thing to see to bolster forecast confidence.
Latest 06/12Z model and probabilistic data does shows the area of precipitation ahead of the main upper level trough axis moving faster to the east which should clear out precipitation across the region.
247 PM EST Sun Nov 6 2016 A pesky upper trough over the Northeast and Canadian maritimes will continue to provide the North Country with cloudy skies, before high pressure building over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley begins to shift east allowing some sunshine to develop this afternoon.
243 PM MST Sun Nov 6 2016 Dry conditions with unseasonably warmer temperatures can be expected this week.
A large area of high pressure centered over the Great Lakes is responsible for the pleasant VFR conditions. With a little more of a pressure gradient as the high moves off to the east, expect less fog tonight.
1205 PM EST Sun Nov 6 2016 High pressure over the Ohio Valley will move to New England through Monday.
An upper ridge will be over the region through the short term period.
1234 PM EST Sun Nov 6 2016 High pressure over the Ohio Valley will move to New England through Monday.
127 PM EST Sun Nov 6 2016 High pressure will remain in control of the weather through the middle of the week.
While it maybe early November, surface dew points are currently in the upper 40s to the lower 50s. Not much moisture or lift with this feature but will hang onto the low pops/slight chance mention, though NAM profiles are more suggestive of mid clouds/altocumulus.
Am expecting a bit more warming over the next few hours before the cooler air behind the passing cold front moves in by mid afternoon.
243 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2016 On Sunday afternoon, a slow moving upper level low continued to slowly drift toward the east and northeast across eastern Colorado with additional short wave spokes rotating northeast out of north TX and central TX. Another strong northern stream trough was over the Rockies of southern Canada, and will move east over the coming days. Scattered showers have spread across western KS but more widespread activity was spreading north across Oklahoma this afternoon in response to one of the short wave troughs.
/issued 321 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2016/ Upper low to our west has begun its slow trek eastward this morning. Rain chances will increase from west to east through the day today into tonight and Monday as upper trough slides east.
251 PM MST Sun Nov 6 2016 An upper trough over eastern Colorado will continue east into Kansas tonight. Minimum temperatures will be similar tonight to last night, although cooler over the eastern plains by 2 to 6 degrees. High surface pressure will be pushing in a dry cold front in after midnight and into Monday, turning winds northerly. Post frontal airmass will limit max temperatures a few degrees cooler over the plains, with temperatures over the mountains being similar. This week's weather will be dominated by a large blocking ridge over the central Rockies.
Satellite trends indicate progressive subsidence and clearing in the wake of a lead trough responsible for the MCS now entering north TX. /issued 416 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2016/ Upper trough currently over Colorado will continue to move east and open up today but not before bringing us additional rain chances. The trailing edge of the upper level trough will pass overhead this afternoon and evening providing continued lift but weaker than seen early this morning. After the upper level trough axis passes, subsidence will spread overhead from west to east, especially after midnight. Some energy in it's southern flank does in fact spit and shear southeast helping to weakly reorganize the upper trough in our vicinity by late Monday. Aforementioned well- established drying by virtue of being on the back side of the trough passing tonight will continue into Monday.
235 PM EST Sun Nov 6 2016 A high amplitude ridge of high pressure builds across the region tonight through Monday night bringing clear skies and light winds.
Am expecting a bit more warming over the next few hours before the cooler air behind the passing cold front moves in by mid afternoon. The main concern during this TAF cycle will be gusty SW/W winds in the wake of a Pacific cold front that will be moving through today.
1116 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2016 Little change to general forecast trends during the period with timing and potential phasing of northern and southern stream troughs the primary concern as they move across the region. A southern stream trough was located over the southern Rockies this morning with models similar in tracking the system into the southern plains by Monday morning then stalling out during the day Monday. Northern trough meanwhile tracks across southern Canada and the northern plains tonight.
159 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2016 Still looking rainfree and unseasonably warm through Monday as high pressure moves very slowly east toward the eastern seaboard. Positively tilted short wave diving southeast from the Midwest will approach the region with an associated cold front Tue/Tue night.
Water vapor imagery shows a large cyclonic trough centered in the Gulf of Alaska and an upper ridge centered over hudson Bay. So expect slightly cooler temperatures today and a little less sunshine. Templer Previous Discussion - Upper trof lifting across the northern Rockies today will push a cold front through Montana. High pressure will bring a little cooler temperatures on Monday. Upper ridge then rebounds over the northern Rockies for the remainder of the week.
140 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2016 The upper low that brought rain to the area yesterday will move east today and tonight but a secondary part of the trough will dig back to the SW. Not expecting much cooling initially but a stronger surge of cooler air will push down into the area Monday night.
448 PM EST Sun Nov 6 2016 High pressure will remain in control of the weather through the middle of the week.
However, rainfall should increase in coverage from the west overnight as an upper-level trough drifts east across the region over the next several days.
343 PM EST Sun Nov 6 2016 High pressure centered over the Lake Ontario will drift east and then south.