Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
704 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Building high pressure will bring VFR conditions for this forecast period with light east to northeast flow of 10 knots or less tonight into Friday.
1139 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016 Not a lot of changes with the 06Z TAFS from previous as SE TX re- mains under the general influence of the upper ridge over the SRN plains.
900 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016 Northerly winds on the east side of an area of high pressure, centered over the upper Midwest, are transporting cooler/less humid air into the area. Drier air has slowly filtered into west-central Illinois behind the front, as evidenced by mid-afternoon dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s along/west of I-55. Meanwhile further southeast, dewpoints remain in the lower to middle 70s. High pressure at the surface and aloft will drift across the area on Friday bringing pleasantly warm weather to the forecast area along with lower dew points.
Looking upstream, high pressure over the northern Plains is poised to move into the region late tonight. Meanwhile, a pesky low level trough will gradually slide south into southern WI. High pressure will be centered across the region. Warmer highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
1137 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 A cold front extending from Northern Virginia to Northern Kentucky will push south into North Carolina Friday then move into the Midlands Friday night. Freezing level and WBZ heights will be 15 kft and 13 kft respectively and with hot temperatures hail threat will be lowered, however with some dry air remaining in the mid levels the potential for damaging wind gusts exists through the afternoon and into the overnight hours.
Storms have fired along a confluence zone, still ahead of the actual cold front, just to the east of Pike county and a few cells are trying to go into Warrick and Vanderburgh counties as of 1930Z.
732 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Conditions will remain dry and increasingly warm across Western and North-Central New York through this weekend as high pressure will dominate the region.
Other storms remain over the higher terrain and these storms may reach northwest Oklahoma during the overnight hours.
950 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 High pressure will build across the region Friday through the weekend.
846 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2016 A low pressure system will move east across the region tonight and Friday.
937 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Low pressure over the region will begin moving southeast this evening taking a frontal system along with it.
A cold front can now be analyzed generally from just south of the CWA in Ohio to just north of the Mason-Dixon line in Pennsylvania. However, abundant surface moisture and the blocking influence of the ridges will likely keep clouds banked up against the ridges and generate a bit of fog overnight. The aforementioned pool of moisture will likely be slow to erode along and west of ridges going into Friday. Fries By Friday night high pressure will be the dominant feature and will result in dry conditions and a warming trend in temperatures through the weekend.
Weak high pressure across the region has brought a stellar day to the area, with temps in the 70s and lower 80s, and comfortable humidity.
932 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Low pressure and a cold front will slowly push south of the Ohio River tonight. High pressure will gradually build into the region Friday into Friday night.
/issued 304 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016/ Water vapor imagery and upper air analysis shows upper level ridging still in control of the sensible weather for the forecast area. For the end of the week into the weekend, still expect the upper level ridge to hold across the Southern Plains into the Gulf South.
736 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2016 As high pressure builds into the North Country tonight, afternoon fair weather clouds will trend towards clear skies with overnight temperatures ranging from the mid 40s to low 50s. With high pressure dominating through the weekend, warm sunny days and cool moonlit nights will be the rule.
An upper level low currently located off of the coast of Washington is still expected to move almost due east over northern Idaho overnight tonight and into tomorrow morning. However, an associated cold front has moved through the area and high temperatures tomorrow are expected to be around 15 degrees cooler than today. Gusty winds and isolated showers expected with a cold frontal passage early Friday.
VFR conditions for much, if not all of this cycle, as the seasonal subtropical ridge of high pressure resides over the Gulf Coast and mid South region. /issued 250 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016/ Typical summertime weather to continue through the weekend, as the upper level ridge remains anchored over the srn CONUS.
Temperatures are in the lower 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Winds will strengthen a bit further overnight, becoming gentle to moderate east to southeasterlies as a ridge axis firms up across the Florida peninsula.
Aloft, the ridge continues to weaken which is allowing mid-level moisture to increase across the area. Forecast soundings show that there will still be a weak cap in place but shear profiles improve a bit later tonight that may be able to sustain any activity moving in from the higher terrain of New Mexico. The good news is the weakened ridge and increased moisture should keep temperatures high temperatures tomorrow in the low to mid 90s rather than the upper 90s to 101 range. Unfortunately it appears that the ridge will strengthen a bit some and all models are keeping any convection west and north of the forecast area through tomorrow afternoon/early evening.
1018 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Conditions will remain dry and increasingly warm across Western and North-Central New York through this weekend as high pressure will dominate the region.
Drier air has slowly filtered into west-central Illinois behind the front, as evidenced by mid-afternoon dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s along/west of I-55. Meanwhile further southeast, dewpoints remain in the lower to middle 70s. High pressure at the surface and aloft will drift across the area on Friday bringing pleasantly warm weather to the forecast area along with lower dew points.
702 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016 Weak high pressure across the region has brought a stellar day to the area, with temps in the 70s and lower 80s, and comfortable humidity.
An upper level low pressure system is moving overhead tonight, bringing rain showers and cooler temperatures across the region through mid day Friday before conditions start to dry out and warm up for the weekend.
Increase in moisture depth over the CWA has been occurring faster than guidance indicates and has already become sufficient for isolated showers to develop this afternoon across the W Gulf and immediate coastline /development aided by mid and upper level trough and low/. Near seasonable max temps for Friday with min temps Fri night being a few degrees warmer than tonight due to increased moisture depth.
752 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Low pressure and a cold front will slowly push south of the Ohio River tonight. High pressure will gradually build into the region Friday into Friday night.
High pressure will remain south of the area through the weekend.
High pressure will build into the region this evening into the overnight hours. Clouds are expected to gradually decrease as cyclonic flow aloft shifts southeast and the high moves in, they will be stubborn to clear though. Dry and quiet weather is expected across the area during the day on Friday with high pressure in control. This will change Friday night as a warm front lifts into the region as a trough and cold front approach from the west.
728 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 A cold front sinking southward and into Virginia today and North Carolina Friday will move into the forecast area Friday night. Freezing level and WBZ heights will be 15 kft and 13 kft respectively and with hot temperatures hail threat will be lowered.
Update: The going forecast is in good shape depicting showers and thunderstorms pushing in late this evening and overnight from the west as the upper ridge over northeast Montana breaks down.
/issued 304 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016/ Overall, an upper ridge is dominating the forecast area through the short term, but a deepening upper trough over the eastern U. coast will push a cold front into the area from the northeast on Friday. An upper ridge centered over the southern states will continue to produce hot and dry conditions over a large portion of the CWA through the end of the week. Have continued with slight chance to chance pops across far north Georgia tonight, and spread them southward into northern metro Atlanta Friday as cold front pushes into the state from the north/northeast as trough aloft deepens.
High pressure will provide dry weather for the weekend. The first upper trough should exit eastward by sunset. A weak trough aloft and front in the vicinty (probably to our south in the afternoon) will have to work on some slightly drier air.
An expansive upper level ridge that stretches from Texas to the southeast states is keeping our weather dry. No rain is expected through Friday as the ridge remains in place along with drier mid and upper level air, noted by precipitable water values of only 1. Increasing 1000-850mb thicknesses for Friday suggest that highs will be around 2-3 degrees warmer than today. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s, but slightly warmer along the immediate coast.
1154 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Expect VFR conditions throughout the forecast period as high pressure builds into the area. Winds will also remain light, under 10 knots, as this high builds into the area and basically calm by late Friday as the center of this high settles over lower Michigan.
/ISSUED 341 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016/ Expansive upper-level ridging will continue to dominate our weather, at least in the short term. As a weakness in the mid-level ridge develops over the weekend, this upper-low will slowly begin to track northward into the Big Bend of Texas. While surface convergence will remain weak/diffuse, cooling mid- level temperatures and an uptick in lift near the low will provide some opportunities for diurnally-driven convection this weekend.
If the low clouds rotate into the area that would limit the potential for fog development.
The low to mid- level waa and low level moisture advection set-up on a developing low level jet overnight lends support to some isolated to scattered elevated shower and thunderstorm development /accas- type convection/ during the late night/early morning timeframe. The pressure gradient between this high and low pressure to the west will tighten up on Friday. Main challenge then becomes precipitation chances as the low and associated frontal boundary track across the area.
VFR conditions for much, if not all of this cycle, as the seasonal subtropical ridge of high pressure resides over the Gulf Coast and mid South region.
Remaining moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere will help low clouds stick around the northern half of the CWA tonight even after the storms have passed through. Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 95 74 94 / 50 30 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 92 71 91 / 60 30 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 73 93 70 92 / 70 30 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 71 89 65 88 / 80 30 10 10.
Also may be too much subsidence across the area with the upper ridge over much of the sern US. (Issued 629 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016) For 00Z TAFs: A large upper ridge still covers much of the sern US while a cdfnt extends from ern KS to the Ohio Valley.
For tomorrow the upper ridge will remain in place over the southern U. High temperatures should again reach into the lower and mid 90s. A cold front will push into the area right around midnight with northerly winds gusting to 20 to 30 mph across the northeastern plains.
Skies will be clear as an upper level ridge of high pressure expands across the region. Overnight lows will range in the upper 60s to around 70 inland and in the lower to mid 70s near the coast and beaches.
H5 ridging aloft is still in control, supporting broad high pressure at the surface. On Friday, high pressure will continue over the Gulf, supporting moderate and gusty southeast winds again by mid morning. Scattered to broken low clouds will develop by mid morning as well, with a slightly lower, albeit weak, cap due to in part to subsidence under the ridge. Despite this low value, enough low level moisture was in place over the Gulf waters and that was leading to some isolated showers. a weak cyclonic circulation/inverted trough was moving westward over the east coast of Mexico from the western Gulf. As the inverted trough moves inland, subsidence over deep south Texas was decreasing while lift/moisture was slowly increasing.
The 00Z CRP sounding showed a dry mid layer currently in place, however moisture will be on the increase overnight as the upper low over Mex and south of BRO, moves farther NW. Increase in moisture depth over the CWA has been occurring faster than guidance indicates and has already become sufficient for isolated showers to develop this afternoon across the W Gulf and immediate coastline /development aided by mid and upper level trough and low/. Near seasonable max temps for Friday with min temps Fri night being a few degrees warmer than tonight due to increased moisture depth.
722 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Low pressure over the region will begin moving southeast this evening taking a frontal system along with it.
925 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Another very quiet mid summer evening across the Northwoods with high pressure and dry air thru the column firmly in control. with the possibility of a few of the typically cooler areas even dropping into the upper 30s. No real sensible weather concerns tonight as an expansive high pressure area over the Northern Plains continues to build toward the Western Lakes.
The upper ridge rebuilds over the area this weekend, with hot and humid weather continuing.
But this is currently almost entirely focused along and north of the I-40 corridor and the ridge center to the south is protecting our forecast area from southward infiltration of this convection. High pressure aloft suppressed convection today.
Also may be too much subsidence across the area with the upper ridge over much of the sern US.
935 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 Another quiet night as a deep ridging pattern remains firmly entrenched over the FL Peninsula. while the RAP40 analysis shows an H100-H70 inverted trof over the FL Straits. RAP40 also shows H100-H70 mean RH values incrsg from arnd 60-70pct over the CWA to arnd 80pct within the trof axis. High pressure ridge axis over the north FL Peninsula will generate a light to gentle E/SE breeze overnight.
1251 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 High pressure will build across the region Friday through the weekend.
1002 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2016 A low pressure system will move east across the region tonight and Friday.
1151 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016 Northerly winds on the east side of an area of high pressure, centered over the upper Midwest, are transporting cooler/less humid air into the area. Drier air has slowly filtered into west-central Illinois behind the front, as evidenced by mid-afternoon dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s along/west of I-55. Meanwhile further southeast, dewpoints remain in the lower to middle 70s. High pressure at the surface and aloft will drift across the area on Friday bringing pleasantly warm weather to the forecast area along with lower dew points.
Weak surface cold front has made its way through northeast Colorado and is presently spilling over the Palmer Divide as per sfc obs and radar. The likelihood of t-storms is quite low today with additional drying and stabilization behind the trough. it's up near the northeast border late this afternoon with passage of the trough. There may be a few hours of 10-20 mph north winds, but the main change will to bring in slightly cooler air. Upper level ridging over Colorado and the desert Southwest will keep a warm airmass in place at low levels and weak westerly flow aloft over the region. Persistent and weak low pressure at the surface is going to allow low level moisture and instability from the Central Plains to move into eastern Colorado at times.
Max temps from the m80s to l90s, combined with high humidity, will likely push heat index values to the upper 90s across the Lower Susq Valley during the aftn, just shy of advisory criteria.
but not out of the question to see a few elevated light showers develop this morning in the low-level warm air advection zone.
Ridging both aloft and at the surface is starting to gain control over much of Central Alabama this morning. The 12z KBMX sounding this morning presented much warmer temperatures at 850MB as opposed to yesterday. Therefore, have also left the low confidence mention of heat in the HWO for the southern counties.
Hot and humid conditions and lower than normal storm coverage continues as deep layer ridge remains across the region.
/issued 409 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): 500 mb ridging will remain entrenched over the RGV through Friday with a subsident airmass maintaining hot and rain free conditions.
1222 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016 Low pressure will approach the area today then track south of the region tonight.
Expect them to die before they cross the Mississippi River due to the strength of the upper ridge. /issued 305 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016/ Only changes tonight from last night is temperatures are running a degree or two warmer and winds were stronger from the southwest. the upper level ridge over the ARLATEX and Ozarks will shift east over the Midsouth.
Later this afternoon and evening a cold front to the north of the CWA is likely to become active as it drops southward. Potential is there for another MCS to form as a SSW low level jet intensifies into the CWA ahead of the cold front.
901 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2016 Low pressure will approach the area today then track south of the region tonight.
603 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016 The short term concerns today are the severe weather threat and heavy rain threat this afternoon and evening as the upper trough moves through. ahead of the main forcing with the incoming trough and surface boundary. forcing with the incoming trough should be strong enough to generate thunderstorms along the boundary this afternoon and evening. The first chances arrive on Friday as the mid/upper low pivots over the Great Lakes and brings cyclonic flow locally.
Suspect warmer 700mb will suppress thunderstorm activity from forming especially west of I-135/35, with cooler 850-700mb temperatures possibly allowing for isolated afternoon redevelopment generally east of I-135/35. Seasonable temperatures are anticipated through the period with multiple opportunities for deep moist convection as a vigorous mid/upper trough lifts over the Northern Intermountain region and into the Northern Rockies. A weak cold front will slide southward through central Kansas this afternoon, and into south central Kansas tonight, allowing southerly winds to shift to northerly.
but with various models (both deterministic and hi-res) suggesting that at least isolated development could affect mainly the eastern/southern halves of the CWA from late this afternoon into tonight mainly along/just behind an invading weak cold front, wanted to at least cover the small possibility. The same models have an upper level wave that moves through the area today and a cold front moves through the forecast area today.
518 AM MDT THU JUL 7 2016 Early morning WV imagery and RAP upper level analysis shows a zonal pattern across the Central Rockies with an elongated ridge across the southern plains. A stronger trough is digging into the northern plains from the Northern Rockies. With faster trough passage in the northern plains FROPA is now shown to move through our CWA during the day today, with some faster members showing it south of our CWA by midday. Latest trends in short range and high resolution guidance is to keep our CWA dry through most of the day, with better chances late afternoon through the evening as activity along the Cheyenne ridge transitions southeast through the mean flow impacting our north and eventually our east.
Have limited wind forecast for remainder of Mid TX Coast/Gulf Waters to 15-20 knots as upwelling of cooler water temps across the W Gulf should limit stronger wind speeds today. With a pattern dominated by a persistent ridge over the region will keep a hot and humid forecast through the short term period.
1040 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2016 High pressure continues to linger over the region today. Ridging aloft also remains in place over South Florida. A relatively dry air mass will keep rain and thunderstorm activity on the low end with best chances remaining over the western half of South Florida. Moisture will be limited this afternoon and again on Friday, with 00z MFL sounding data showing less than an inch and a half of PWATS, and a dominating dry air mass at the lower atmospheric levels.
Ridging should keep shower and thunderstorm activity isolated today, and mainly south of Interstate 20. The semi-permanent subtropical ridge of high pressure over the southern states will be more firmly reestablished over the vicinity for the short term period. Latest calculations agree with this placement and the advisory will be continued unadjusted (although locations east of the advisory should be only slightly cooler than neighbors further west). The broad mid/upper ridge which has persisted over the Deep South/North Gulf is forecast to break down slightly by this weekend, allowing weak disturbances which were previously being shunted around the CWA to have greater influence through the period.
Seasonable temperatures are anticipated through the period with multiple opportunities for deep moist convection as a vigorous mid/upper trough lifts over the Northern Intermountain region and into the Northern Rockies. A weak cold front will slide southward through central Kansas this afternoon, and into south central Kansas tonight, allowing southerly winds to shift to northerly.
A trough will then settle into the deep south just to the north of the area for Friday, pushing the ridge axis across the area to across south Florida and making for more SW/W flow across the area. Temperatures will be generally in the lower to mid 90s each afternoon and in the lower 70s inland to around 80 coastal Friday morning.
Deep layered ridging extends from the surface through the mid troposphere, where it gives way to and elongated and tilted upper level trough centered over the Bahamas and central Cuba.
With a pattern dominated by a persistent ridge over the region will keep a hot and humid forecast through the short term period.
With wave and inverted trof will likely still see areas of rain/T so will maintain relatively higher pops. Friday will be a bit blustery and overall cooler. High pressure will bring diminishing wind to the region.
However, upper level ridging will keep most convection in check, and probability too low to mention at sites. A few mid 70s were evident in the usual cooler locations such as Jasper and around the Oakdale and Opelousas area. the high pressure center was wobbling towards Shreveport area for today. possibly a degree cooler. the upper level high should retrograde to the west as a series of disturbances chip away at the ridge aloft beginning this weekend.
Ridging aloft also remains in place over South Florida. A relatively dry air mass will keep rain and thunderstorm activity on the low end with best chances remaining over the western half of South Florida. Moisture will be limited this afternoon and again on Friday, with 00z MFL sounding data showing less than an inch and a half of PWATS, and a dominating dry air mass at the lower atmospheric levels.
Our 88D vad wind profiler is seeing SW flow 15-30kts in the lowest levels and with a good day of heating the SW gusts will linger toward sunset.
Dry conditions will dominate the forecast as low pressure across the Pacific Northwest keeps the monsoon flow at bay.