Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
304 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 High pressure still dominating the scene locally as 00z DTX sounding indicated a very dry resident airmass and flow remains light southeasterly. Wind field will veer through the depth of the column today as the low over the northern plains begins the process of shearing northeast allowing warmer temperatures to advect into the area. Given the extent of dry air in the low/mid levels, any diurnally-driven cloud cover will tend to be lower in coverage. Scaled back cloud fraction in the grids and raised high temperatures just a bit into the low 80s, especially over eastern areas which will finally be out of lake shadow effects. Low temperatures will struggle to fall much below 70 degrees tonight as the gradient remains elevated and clouds increase, and dewpoints remain in the low 60s.
An upper high will keep most of the area dry today. However, some waves riding around the upper high could bring a few showers to extreme northwestern sections of the area this afternoon. Confidence in these showers is low though thanks to lower moisture amounts in our area and the proximity of the upper high. This puts highs in the low to mid 80s, which is well above average. If clouds are less than expected, readings could go a couple of degrees warmer some areas.
Ridging over the eastern CONUS will continue to control the weather pattern today and tonight.
303 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 Skies are partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers racing westward near 30 mph over the Lower keys and the surrounding waters, and westward to beyond Dry Tortugas. Surface wise, an expansive continental area high pressure is centered over the northeast and mid Atlantic states, with a ridge extending down the Sunshine State and the southwest Atlantic ocean. In addition, an unusually deep mid and upper level trough will dig southward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, resulting in episodes of large scale ascent.
316 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2017 High pressure across the eastern U.
117 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather through Wednesday.
Nearly stacked low pressure is straddling the MT/Canadian border. Colder air filtering in from the backside of the low will continue through central to eastern MT. Temps are expected to drop below freezing across northeast WY. Wrap around precip associated with the upper low will stay north of the CWA. May eventually need additional freezing headlines for western SD plains where freezing temps have not yet been reached. Dry weather will continue through the middle of the week as weak upper ridging sets up. A secondary upper low is progged to cross the region late this week bringing another round of precip to the area.
300 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 High pressure will bring another sunny and mild afternoon today.
134 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 A fairly stout upper ridge is centered over the eastern third of the country this afternoon. At the surface, winds were relatively light out of the southeast across the lower Ohio Valley. Lows tonight will drop into the low/mid 50s east of I-65, with mid 50s to around 60 along and west of I-65. Tonight through Tuesday, the high amplitude upper ridge is forecast to strengthen. As the ridge builds on Tuesday, low-mid level moisture will get forced to the northwest of the forecast area. Highs Tuesday should be a bit warmer than today, topping out in the low 80s.
1136 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Aviation Section Updated Winter storm continues to impact the region tonight as stacked surface to upper level low/trough remains nearly stationary with axis extending from NE MT into SK tonight before shifting east into ND Tuesday morning. Focus for heaviest additional accumulations will remain across N-central MT, particularly From the Highwood Mtns NE through the Bears Paw Mtns and adjacent areas, including the city of Havre, where heavy snow has already resulted in widespread power outages. Simultaneously, a high pressure ridge at the surface and aloft will gradually settle over our CWA from the north and west. This pattern evolution will allow widespread snow to continue to wrap-around the aforementioned low pressure system and impact the CWA through tonight.
A cold front has pushed through all of eastern Colorado and is now south of the border. The fog should mostly dissipate by mid morning although the low clouds, while lifting, will likely continue for a while after that. The low clouds and fog may make it up into the Upper Arkansas and Wet Mountain Valleys to the base of the Sangre De Cristos but it will likely not get any farther.
402 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2017 Forecast concerns will be ongoing showers and thunderstorms and temperatures/winds at the cold front slowly slides southeast.
Aloft, the area remains under southwesterly flow, set up between high pressure extending north through the eastern CONUS and low pressure spinning over the northern Rockies. The main feature of interest becomes the closed low that developed on Tuesday, located roughly over northern NV by 12Z Wednesday.
356 AM MDT Tue Oct 3 2017 There is a strong southwest flow aloft across Colorado today with one exiting upper low entering the Dakotas while another low is forming over Northern California. Temperatures will be a little warmer today with more sunshine expected, especially over northern sections and readings expected to be in the mid to upper 50s. A disturbance in the southwesterly flow aloft on Wednesday, combined with moisture southeasterly surface flow will bring warmer temperatures and scattered showers. A few thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon over the high terrain, then as the wave passes further east, a few weak thunderstorms may push northeast over the plains during the early evening.
223 AM MDT Tue Oct 3 2017 Line of showers and thunderstorms along the cold front will exit the forecast area by 12z. Satellite however shows the low clouds lingering well behind the front, and latest HRRR shows a slow north to south progression of the clouds today.
Upper trough over the interior west will close off a low in ne Calif/wrn Nevada today. Clouds and pcpn will moderate diurnal temperatures on the Idaho side with milder lows tonight and cooler highs Wednesday.
414 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather through Wednesday.
340 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2017 Another quiet morning across the Mid-State, as we continue to enjoy the comforting protection of an upper level ridge. Expect upper level ridge axis to retrograde through Wednesday, with our southerly surface flow becoming east to northeast during the day on Wednesday.
346 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 Canadian high pressure has built south into the area and will control the weather through work week. Lawrence Valley into northern New England ridging south into the Mid-Atlantic region. Aloft, mid- upper level ridge axis remains oriented just to the west.
but there is also a weak short wave trough dropping southeast across the region. This weak trough.
with 6-10 Wahpeton/Breckenridge to Fergus Falls/Wadena then toward Alexandria. The next chance for snow comes Mon afternoon through Tue morning as a lee cyclone moves into the Northern Plains. Tue would likely be coldest in the wake of departing system with fresh high pressure dropping south. Gusty winds should gradually shift from northwest then west and decrease late this evening and tonight as high pressure moves over the region.
A ridge of high pressure currently over the Appalachians will move east of the area today, but still provide fair weather. Meanwhile, aloft, the flow will be fast and progressive, and carry a cold front into the region from the northwest tonight with another round of rain.
818 AM EDT Sat Mar 31 2018 Dry weather is expected through most of the day under building high pressure. Precipitation chances return tonight with the passage of a cold front. Dry weather through most of the day as high pressure slides east across the region. Increasing wind is expected this afternoon as the surface pressure gradient tightens between the exiting high and the approaching cold front. The cold front is progged to cross late tonight. What will need to be watched in future model runs is how far south and east tonight's cold front pushes on Sunday. At this time, the greatest threat for advisory level snowfall would be south of I-70 and particularly over the ridge counties.
927 AM MDT Sat Mar 31 2018 The cold front has pushed through Northeast Montana well to the southwest. This high will also tend to diminish winds through the day. There are still a few areas of light snow early this morning as a cold front departs northeast Montana. By this afternoon, skies will clear from the north as a high pressure ridge moves through the area.
728 AM CDT Sat Mar 31 2018 Heavy snow continues early this morning along and north of I-94, with precip turning to rain south across east central MN and west central WI due to slightly warmer air up to 5000 ft.
/Issued 647 AM CDT Sat Mar 31 2018/ For the 12Z TAFs, a cold front will move thru the TAF sites this morning with gusty north to northeast winds in its wake. /Issued 449 AM CDT Sat Mar 31 2018/ Temps today will be similar to slightly warmer than yesterday. A cold front will push through today but the cooler air behind it will lag enough to allow us to reach into the 60s and 70s. While the Panhandles are busy seeing clouds on Sunday, a closed low in the mid levels begins to swing southward and approach the Pacific NW while another low pressure trough invades southern California.
Temperatures will be several degrees cooler than yesterday with highs mostly in the 50s.
There's pretty good agreement on this scenario so forecast follows suit with a quick uptick in PoPs with maybe a few inches of new snow at the highest elevations. The rest of the CWA will be very similar to Saturday with some breezy conditions and still warmer temperatures as winds become more southwesterly. blocking up the pattern across the higher latitudes of NOAM.
Cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma this morning and progress somewhat slowly southward through the day with predominately strong northeast winds developing behind the front.
Conditions will deteriorate later this afternoon as a cold front moves into the area. While a few showers will be possible across parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas today, the better chances for showers and thunderstorms will be near and after sunset along and north of a cold front that will move south across the area. The shallow cold air will take its time moving across the higher terrain of far southeast Oklahoma, so Sunday will see a wide range of temperatures, with temperatures falling to near freezing in the afternoon in parts of northeast Oklahoma, while the far southeast will remain in the 60s.
Lingering showers will move east of the area early this morning, before a cooler air mass spreads into the region. The low pressure system will continue to work its way east through Iowa and Minnesota today. As it passes, this system will continue to drag a fairly strong cold front through the forecast area.
Southerly winds will increase resulting in warmer temperatures. A cold front will move into the Midsouth tonight, but mid to upper level steering flow will become zonal.
1109 AM EDT Sat Mar 31 2018 A weak cold front will pass through tonight and early Easter morning. A low pressure area will develop along this front over the Tennessee Valley and move through the Mid-Atlantic Sunday night.
745 AM EDT Sat Mar 31 2018 Building high pressure will lead to a quiet day on Saturday with clear skies and seasonal temperatures.
Indeed, the near term pattern is relatively stagnant with weak flat ridging over the west coast. Variations in the sensible weather will be driven by weak short waves riding over the ridge. The main effects of the wave will be to weaken the surface thermal trough along the coast, which will in turn weaken the northerlies over the coastal waters, and support a marine push into the coast and Umpqua Basin. The thermal trough will weaken further so marine winds will continue to diminish. Increasing cloud cover will make for cooler conditions Sunday with inland highs around five degrees cooler than the Saturday highs.
Deeper mixing behind the cold front will allow winds to gust to 45 mph at times later this morning as well. Lighter amounts and warmer temps should lead to a sharp decrease in amounts to the south. Did not make any changes to the Wind Advisory for southeast Minnesota/northeast Iowa with south winds becoming northwest behind the cold front and potential for some gusts to 45 mph with tightening gradient/cold advection. Sunday will be dry and mostly sunny as high pressure builds across the region.
Otherwise, two features near the area are the most notable, while central IL will largely be influenced by dry conditions and mostly sunny skies associated with weak high pressure lingering over the area. Second, a few showers or thunderstorms could develop as far north as I-70 associated with a broad trough over the southeast as diurnal heating takes place this afternoon. Weak high pressure remained in control of the weather pattern overnight. As we've seen the past few nights under this ridge, patchy fog has once again developed.
Temperatures will be near average levels with southeasterly winds increasing on Sunday as high pressure builds to the north tightening the pressure gradient.
A weak ridge of high pressure was situated across eastern Kansas tonight with light winds and clear conditions. This lead to some decent radiational cooling with predawn temperatures below normal with values in the low to mid 60 for most areas.
(This evening through Sunday) 500 mb heights increase through Sunday as the upper ridging expands slightly over the Plains.
1152 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020 Another quiet weather night is occurring tonight, albeit slightly warmer than the last night. A weak ridge of high pressure will extend from the TN/OH Vlys east to the Ozarks and southern Plains.
139 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020 Visible satellite continues to show a well defined circulation over northwest AL beneath the trough axis.
Otherwise, a mid level ridge continues to strengthen overhead which will generally yield VFR conditions and light winds across all TAF sites through the period. Mid level ridging continues to strengthen overhead leading to mostly sunny skies.
1140 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2020 Overnight WV/IR imagery showed the strong upper high centered near the Four Corners of the Southwest CONUS. The clockwise circulation around the high was advecting smoke from Western CONUS wildfires into the CWA. Persistence will be the operative word this weekend with the continuation of hot daytime temperatures and low humidities as the upper high remains parked over the Four Corners. Fortunately, winds will be relatively light under the influence of the ridge aloft. The upper ridge axis will flatten and weaken as a upper trough tracks east from the Pacific Northwest across the international border during the upcoming week.
340 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2020 Short-term forecast period continues the recent trends of building the western Atlantic upper ridge back into the region. Subsequently, we continue to lose the influence of the upper trough to the west. The Bermuda ridge is forecast to expand and the track of Laura looks to be farther to our west.
This instability along with weak upper support and a sfc inverted trof will lead to widely scattered to scattered shower and thunderstorm development. The H5 trof will continue to fill this evening. Lows will drop back to the lower to mid 60s. Highs will once again push into the lower to mid 80s. The slightest inflection remains in the 500mb trough Sunday night with any lingering showers fading by the late evening.
Tonight into tomorrow, upper ridge will build back over the region, with warm up back into the mid 80s to lower 90s for afternoon highs starting tomorrow.
The upper-level anticyclone that is centered over the Four Corners is gradually drifting east, which will result in a transition to more equatorward flow aloft and therefore eliminating the potential for convectively- induced precipitation across the forecast area.
Southwest flow aloft will continue in the short term as a strong upper level ridge remains over the Four Corners region.
At the surface, high pressure is lingering across the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures will continue to notch a few degrees warmer on Sunday with 850-mb temps of around 20 Celsius mixing down to the surface.
A tightening pressure gradient between Tropical Storm Marco, currently in the Yucatan Channel, and the Atlantic subtropical ridge will result in an uptick in wind speeds tonight.
Visible satellite continues to show a well defined circulation over northwest AL beneath the trough axis.
In some ways Sunday will be similar to Sat, although it should be a little warmer, and there will likely be more coverage. Looking at the large scale patterns we see not much change, the week will start with a generally zonal flow across our area with a ridge over the western CONUS.
Otherwise, building upper ridging will support above normal afternoon highs in the 90s for most. Model consensus retrogrades the current southeast CONUS upper low northward into Mid-America by mid to late week, which should tend to temper high temperatures a few degrees.
855 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2020 Update: A cold front this evening has turned winds to the north across the NW half of the forecast area. Winds will turn to the NE and then east overnight and Sunday morning as high pressure moves into the area.
The ridge is helping to push the surface boundary northward which is promoting the expansion of muggy air to the north. The convection is pulsing, as the rising heights aloft and warmer air aloft has created a a cap which is limiting the vertical extent of the storms. Hires models are showing additional activity firing overnight along the northward drifting warm front, so have included slight chance to low chance PoPs overnight. Otherwise, the low-level disturbance south of our region today will continue north into the Ohio Valley and prompt scattered, mainly diurnally- supported, showers and thunderstorms.
/issued 345 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020/ Showers continue to develop across areas of West Tennessee near the Tennessee River and Northeast Mississippi thanks to a weak upper level low pressure system that is moving through the Tennessee River Valley. The upper low will move off to the northeast tonight.
529 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2020 Hot, dry and hazy conditions are expected to continue through the short term period with the upper high pressure area expanding across the U. Models are trying to latch onto diurnally driven short waves with convection developing over the high terrain moving across the plains late each evening with some near surface convergence locally enhancing the lift in the vicinity of the surface through that waffles over eastern Colorado the next few days.
Warming trend will continue into Sunday with high temperatures back into the lower to mid 90s across eastern Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas.
/Issued 254 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020/ 1830z WV satellite reveals an upper high over the Four Corners, open trough swinging eastward over the southeastern CONUS, and resulting northerly flow aloft over the Panhandles.
A cold front will move southeast through South Dakota, approaching northern Nebraska. Today and tomorrow, the upper level ridge will continue to migrate north. The upper level ridge will further establish itself over the Western U.
A cold front will continue to work its way east across southeastern Montana this evening and overnight. Tomorrow will bring cooler temps but will still remain above normal. With the lower temps tomorrow and similar dew points, RH will be slightly higher than what we saw today. High temps will reach the low 90s tomorrow.
The large scale pattern doesn't look to change much until the end of the week, when the ridge is finally suppressed and heights fall more substantially as the trough re-amplifies over and just east of our region.
A cold front in Montana will move into western North Dakota tonight. It should be cooler across the north on Sunday, with highs there around 80, to the lower 90s south. The broad features in the h500 pattern continue to persist, with a strong h500 upper high across the southwest US, with a band of moderate westerly flow over the top of the ridge into the northern plains.
However, there is a slight chance for precipitation over northern portions of the forecast early Sunday morning due to a weak cold front. Dry and warmer weather expected for the remainder of the day with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Otherwise, blend was a bit too warm for overnight lows next couple of nights as we remain under the ridge with light winds, so went with the lower end of guidance for lows tonight and Sunday night.
Highs are moving into the low 90s for most locations. with the Highway 81 corridor slightly cooler (mid-upper 80s). This is not uncommon for the high crop areas. Sunday: Another hot day as the upper ridge over the Southwest continues to build. Upper ridging will continue to build in and shift eastward with its axis over the middle of the country for the first half of the work week. An upper disturbance looks to move around the upper level ridge from the Texas Gulf Coast that will help to break down the ridging.
There could be enough daytime heating and instability tomorrow for mainly late morning through afternoon storms inland, but will keep rain chances on the low side mainly for locations near and south of the Interstate 10 corridor.
/Issued 340 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2020/ Short-term forecast period continues the recent trends of building the western Atlantic upper ridge back into the region. Subsequently, we continue to lose the influence of the upper trough to the west. The Bermuda ridge is forecast to expand and the track of Laura looks to be farther to our west.
A northerly influx of tropical moisture on Sunday will bring an increasing chance of thunderstorms to mainly the higher elevations. Four Corners mid level ridge of high pressure has drifted east enough to get our temperatures back to normal.
The high pressure center is forecast to remain over the Four Corners through midweek, with east through south mid level flow expanding across most of Arizona. This is a more typical monsoonal pattern, thus expect scattered afternoon and evening storms across the high country and isolated coverage elsewhere. Fair weather btwn 04z-18z Sunday then scattered storms again across the high country.
An upper level ridge was located over the western states and into the eastern Rockies. For tonight and into Sunday dry weather is expected to continue with the upper high gradually building eastward into the Plains. Highs on Sunday in the low to mid 90s are forecast with the warmer readings near central Kansas. Afternoon dewpoint temperatures in the low to mid 60s when combined with the 90s temperatures will yield heat indices in the mid to upper 90s.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms over the lower Ohio Valley this afternoon are associated with a 500 mb trough that is lifting northeast from the Tennessee Valley. On Sunday, the 500 mb trough will be less of an influence as it continues weakening and lifting north. Overall, it will be a little warmer with more sunshine than today.
The upper ridge persists over the rockies, with a 500mb high sitting over the 4 corners region. Expect our dry and warm conditions to persist into Sunday afternoon, with highs in the low to mid 90s this afternoon and Sunday. The western CONUS upper level ridge is still propagating over into the central CONUS when the period opens.
Water vapor imagery and upper analysis reveals low pressure spinning over the mid-Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley. Highs are forecast to reach the low to mid 80s. Upper trough axis, which has been bringing our damp weather the last couple of days, will be right over the region Sunday night, on its way slowly eastward.
This makes sense as the trough axis heights have been on the increase. This trend will continue into Sunday as the trough begins to open up a but more.