Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A few showers/an isold storm for Eastern Upper Michigan this High Impact Weather Potential. Warm front has reached the southern shore of Lake Superior this afternoon.
Low pressure lifting out of the southern plains will be the impetus for storms development later this evening with current CAM trajectory continuing to indicate the greatest threat northwest of our area. Later in the evening the cold front will move into northwest Iowa with storms developing along this convergent zone. All modes of severe weather are possible on Monday night as the cold front pushes across the area, with hail and damaging winds once again the main concerns.
The cut off upper low will be ejecting into the Dakotas by tomorrow, with plenty of upper forcing across the Northern Plains and strong deep layer bulk shear. With deep layer bulk shear in the 40-50 kt range and the upper low approaching the area, some pretty strong storms are expected and the SPC outlook has been upgraded to moderate. Do expect convection to push north- northeastward through the afternoon and evening as the upper low comes out, then shift eastward Monday night as the system pushes into the Lake of the Woods area.
(Rest of tonight) Cooler conditions were being realized across the greater Tennessee Valley after a seasonably warm start to the week. Highs earlier in the afternoon topped out in the low/mid 80s under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. A loss of daytime heating and resultant instability has lead to the lower clouds dissipating as we roll into the evening. Stacked high pressure along the Mid Atlantic coast was the main feature controlling the areas sensible weather, with a light SE-S flow. Lows should be a bit milder, with lows cooling into the low/mid 60s with light winds.
There is the potential for tornadic development across portions of far north central Nebraska into northeastern Nebraska, where the low level Helicity is the greatest. The second area of focus will be across western Nebraska as the cold front advances eastward. There is some concern however that moisture is a little limited for areas across far western and southwest Nebraska as sfc dewpoints are only in the low to mid 40s, moisture increases to the east. As for Monday, there is the potential for more showers and thunderstorms, with chances lingering through the day as the cold front continues to advance east.
938 PM EDT Sun May 29 2022 Building high pressure will keep the region dry and warm into mid week.
Dry and windy conditions will last into Monday over eastern Arizona continuing the high fire danger.
507 PM EDT Sun May 29 2022 Building high pressure will keep the region dry and warm into mid week.
929 PM EDT Sun May 29 2022 High pressure will dominate over the Mid-Atlantic region through Memorial Day, sliding just offshore through the middle of the workweek.
1050 PM EDT Sun May 29 2022 High pressure across the region through midweek with above normal temperatures.
510 PM MDT Sun May 29 2022 Water vapor shows upper low taking shape near the ID/UT border with distinct short wave ejecting through the Central Rockies and short wave ridge over the Northern Plains. Convection is firing from CO into eastern WY near developing low pressure, with some strikes already across southern Campbell county early this afternoon where MLCAPE has risen to about 250J/kg. Upper low shifts across southern WY tonight, and into the NE panhandle Monday morning and central SD by the afternoon.
934 PM EDT Sun May 29 2022 A ridge of high pressure will bring gorgeous weather through the rest of the Memorial Day Weekend. High pressure ridge will stay in place through the first half of the week with increasing temperatures across the area. Temperatures across the Catskills and the higher terrain across central NY are very quickly dropping off, already in the mid and upper 50s in some spots.
Gusty winds and cooler temperatures continue today as a trough axis passes overhead and pushes eastward.
732 PM EDT Sun May 29 2022 A ridge of high pressure will bring gorgeous weather through the rest of the Memorial Day Weekend. High pressure ridge will stay in place through the first half of the week with increasing temperatures across the area.
939 PM EDT Sun May 29 2022 Building high pressure will keep the region dry and warm into mid week.
Thinking this makes sense as peak daytime heating/instability should be sufficient for isolated showers/storms along the periphery of the high that is centered over the Carolinas and Virginia. In addition, a 500 mb disturbance rotating around the high will provide an impetus for convection across central and western Georgia. /Issued 318 PM EDT Sun May 29 2022/ Broad ridging aloft looks to dominate the near term and should stay mainly convection free this afternoon/evening as deep layer moisture is rather limited. For Monday, the upper ridge pushes a bit more northward allowing for some increased Atlantic moisture to nose into mainly central GA and therefore have some slight to low end chance pops for diurnally enhanced shower/thunderstorm potential.
819 PM EDT Sun May 29 2022 High pressure across the region through midweek with above normal temperatures.
Afternoon WV/VIS imagery showed the upper level low over eastern ID.
711 PM EDT Sun May 29 2022 High pressure remains centered over the Mid-Atlantic tonight. This area of high pressure then moves offshore Memorial Day and becomes centered over the western Atlantic through the middle of the week. An area of high pressure became centered over the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon. There may be a few spots in the northwestern Piedmont that get a bit cooler with temperatures dropping into the mid 50s.
624 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022 (This afternoon through Monday Night) Per continuance of ridging influences surface and aloft, dry conditions should continue to prevail through Monday night.
624 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022 (Tonight) A very benign pattern continues today as a stacked ridge over the Carolinas establishes southerly flow across portions of the Southeast, as evidenced by dew points rising into the low to mid 60s. Scattered cloud cover and a southerly breeze 5-10 mph make for a pleasant afternoon as ambient temperatures reach the low to mid 80s.
634 PM EDT Sun May 29 2022 A ridge of high pressure will bring gorgeous weather through the rest of the Memorial Day Weekend. High pressure ridge will stay in place through the first half of the week with increasing temperatures across the area.
Thinking this makes sense as peak daytime heating/instability should be sufficient for isolated showers/storms along the periphery of the high that is centered over the Carolinas and Virginia. In addition, a 500 mb disturbance rotating around the high should provide an impetus for convection across central and western Georgia. /Issued 318 PM EDT Sun May 29 2022/ Broad ridging aloft looks to dominate the near term and should stay mainly convection free this afternoon/evening as deep layer moisture is rather limited. For Monday, the upper ridge pushes a bit more northward allowing for some increased Atlantic moisture to nose into mainly central GA and therefore have some slight to low end chance pops for diurnally enhanced shower/thunderstorm potential.
623 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022 (This evening through Monday) South winds of 20 to 30 mph were gusting over 40 mph at times this afternoon, with the higher gusts in the Big Country. Breezy south winds will continue overnight into Monday, with a lee trough remaining along the Texas and New Mexico state line. Gusty south winds tonight will keep the atmosphere mixed and overnight lows in the lower 70s.
Temperatures were much warmer today as compared to yesterday, and resulting dewpoint depressions are several degrees higher. Fog will be a possibility again tonight, but couple the higher T/Td spreads with a relatively sunny day across the CWA today and I think it will be less prevalent than last night. With KTRI being almost 10 degrees warmer than yesterday, believe dewpoint depressions may be too high for fog development overnight so have cut that from the TAF there. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 88 67 90 67 / 0 10 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 87 65 89 67 / 0 10 0 20 0 Oak Ridge, TN 63 87 65 89 66 / 0 10 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 87 62 87 63 / 0 10 0 20 0.
An upper level low over the area tonight will move south into Oregon Monday.
Webcams and satellite derived dust products continue to indicate widespread area of dust/haze across the high desert of San Bernardino County this evening.
Lows will be in the lower to middle 60s. (This afternoon through Monday Night) Per continuance of ridging influences surface and aloft, dry conditions should continue to prevail through Monday night.
/Issued 318 PM EDT Sun May 29 2022/ Broad ridging aloft looks to dominate the near term and should stay mainly convection free this afternoon/evening as deep layer moisture is rather limited. For Monday, the upper ridge pushes a bit more northward allowing for some increased Atlantic moisture to nose into mainly central GA and therefore have some slight to low end chance pops for diurnally enhanced shower/thunderstorm potential.
333 PM MDT Sun May 29 2022 Afternoon WV/VIS imagery showed the upper level low over eastern ID.
410 PM MST Sun May 29 2022 Updated Aviation A series of low pressure systems across the intermountain West will bring cooler and windy conditions to the Desert Southwest through Monday. High pressure will then build east of the region, resulting in seasonably dry conditions along with a warming trend.
A series of low pressure systems across the intermountain West will bring cooler and windy conditions to the Desert Southwest through Monday. High pressure will then build east of the region, resulting in seasonably dry conditions along with a warming trend.
524 PM MDT Sun May 29 2022 Afternoon WV/VIS imagery showed the upper level low over eastern ID.
A warming trend will kick off tomorrow as high pressure shifts toward the West Coast. A cooler airmass has settled over Northwest California in the wake of an upper-level trough. Cooler temperatures will persist today as the aforementioned trough shifts southward and high pressure nudges toward the West Coast. Temperatures will start to warm tomorrow and this trend will continue through midweek as high pressure moves over the West Coast. Winds will continue to be breezy along the coast and across interior ridges. The combination of drier northerly flow and and breezy ridgetop winds will lead to some elevated conditions for fire weather in eastern Lake County.
Standing upper level trough across the western US will send periodic waves of weather into the plains over the next few days. Ahead of this low, strong southerly flow is expected with 40-50 knot low level jet feeding northward to the warm front extending across central Nebraska northeast into Minnesota. Weak short wave is expected to rotate around the upper low tonight leading to waves of convection along the warm front overnight. Strong area of low pressure is expected to lift north across the eastern Dakotas on Monday. Attendant cold front/dry line will serve as additional focusing mechanisms for rounds of thunderstorms across central and eastern Nebraska. As the main cold front moves through the area on Tuesday, looking at a renewed chance of severe weather as the atmosphere re- destabilizes.
(Today) Temperatures are several degrees warmer than this time yesterday morning. Dewpoints have also crept up into the low to mid 60s for most locations. The upper level ridge is centered across the Carolinas with the ridge axis extending northwestward into the Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure continues to shift further eastward across the Atlantic leading to southerly flow in the low-levels. Temperatures this morning will start off in the low to mid 60s for most locations. Some of the models have a slower progression of this trough as well.
237 AM MDT Mon May 30 2022 Current surface map places stalled front over the eastern Dakotas with pressure falling across the high plains in response to upper low moving across the central Rockies.
343 AM EDT Mon May 30 2022 A backdoor cold front pushes slowly south towards Maine today, then moves southwest through the state tonight into Tuesday morning.
Afternoon WV/VIS imagery showed the upper level low over eastern ID. Favored the wetter ECMWF with likely to categorical PoPs (NAM and GFS place the low further to the east, which would keep much of the southern and western CWA drier).
A broad trough over the Great Basin region continues to impact western Colorado and eastern Utah today. Much cooler temperatures and numerous showers continue to move south across the forecast area this afternoon. As the colder air spread over the area, overnight lows will drop into the low 30s across the northern and central valleys of western Colorado with below freezing temperatures expected over the mountain locations. The first wave will rotate east into Wyoming by Monday morning with the broad trough remaining over the Intermountain West region. Instability showers can be expected across the north and over the higher terrain Monday afternoon and early evening with dry and seasonably cold conditions elsewhere. Another round of cold temperatures are expected for Monday night as the next wave drops into the main trough over the Great Basin by Monday night.
331 AM EDT Mon May 30 2022 Warm and dry weather will persist today through Tuesday in the circulation around high pressure centered to the southeast.
1252 AM EDT Mon May 30 2022 High pressure will keep the region dry and warm into mid week.
416 AM EDT Mon May 30 2022 High pressure moves offshore today and becomes centered over the western Atlantic through the middle of the week. The upper-level ridge has build over the Mid-Atlantic and has become a close anticyclone. Temperatures will be slightly warmer today, near 90F along the I-95 corridor and mid-80s closer to the bay and ocean (upper 70s to near 80F at the beaches) with a southeasterly wind off the ocean/bay.
352 AM EDT Mon May 30 2022 High pressure will dominate over the Mid-Atlantic region through Memorial Day, sliding just offshore through the middle of the workweek.
1256 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022 (This evening through Monday) South winds of 20 to 30 mph were gusting over 40 mph at times this afternoon, with the higher gusts in the Big Country. Breezy south winds will continue overnight into Monday, with a lee trough remaining along the Texas and New Mexico state line. Gusty south winds tonight will keep the atmosphere mixed and overnight lows in the lower 70s.
(Today through Tuesday) The mid to upper level subtropical ridge will remain over Texas through the short term period. The low level flow will continue to be from the southeast keeping a warm, moist airmass in place across South Central Texas.
246 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022 This afternoon and tonight: The building ridge appears to be winning out as elevated showers/storms are struggling to extend south out of southern Wisconsin early this afternoon. Upper ridging will be firmly entrenched across the CWA, keep any subtle mid-level waves and associated elevate showers/storms well to the northwest. Erosion of the western edge of the ridge will be underway by daybreak Tuesday, with a low chance that rapidly decaying convection could near the far west around sunrise.
Core of upper level ridge will drift a little closer to us, resulting in warmer temps for Memorial Day compared to today as highs approach 90 degrees in some locations. High pressure aloft and in the lower levels will keep the weather hot and dry through Tuesday. 588 dam mid-level ridge retrogrades westward across the Ohio Valley, while a potent low pressure system moves northeast over Minnesota. The trailing cold front is forecast to cut southwest through the Upper Midwest and southern Plains. We'll see warm southerly flow between the Minnesota low and low- level ridging centered over the Carolinas.
300 AM EDT Mon May 30 2022 Dry and warm conditions today as upper ridging remains over Central Indiana. Dewpoints will recover back into the low to mid 60s overnight as deeper moisture moves in. A similar weather pattern is likely for Tuesday as high pressure persists. Warmer 850mb temperatures being mixed down will lead to slight warmer surface temperatures with highs near 90 in most locations.
Thinking this makes sense as peak daytime heating/instability should be sufficient for isolated showers/storms along the periphery of the high that is centered over the Carolinas and Virginia. In addition, a 500 mb disturbance rotating around the high should provide an impetus for convection across central and western Georgia. Broad ridging aloft looks to dominate the near term and should stay mainly convection free this afternoon/evening as deep layer moisture is rather limited. For Monday, the upper ridge pushes a bit more northward allowing for some increased Atlantic moisture to nose into mainly central GA and therefore have some slight to low end chance pops for diurnally enhanced shower/thunderstorm potential. Baker Upper ridging will extend across the region at the start of the forecast period on Tuesday.
1248 AM PDT Mon May 30 2022 A warming trend will begin as high pressure builds over the forecast area, although highs will remain at least a few degrees below average today.
427 AM EDT Mon May 30 2022 High pressure across the region through midweek with above normal temperatures.
A strong upper level high pressure system is expected to maintain its hold from the Virginias and Carolinas southwestward to LA and eastern TX through Memorial Day and Tuesday. A weak cold front trying to creep slowly southeast into the upper ridge later Tuesday night could bring a few showers and isolated thunderstorms to portions of se MO/srn IL.
230 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022 Warmer weather is expected to start off the new week with high temperatures nearing 90 degrees both today and Tuesday. Shower and storm chances hold off until Tuesday evening as a cold front works into the area. Temperatures today will be slightly warmer than yesterday with highs peaking in the upper 80s to near 90. The strong low over the central Plains will lift into the Upper Mississippi River Valley and then eventually into ONtario on Tuesday with an associated cold front stretched southward from there.
1010 PM MST Sun May 29 2022 Updated Aviation A series of low pressure systems across the intermountain West will bring cooler and windy conditions to the Desert Southwest through Monday. High pressure will then build east of the region, resulting in seasonably dry conditions along with a warming trend.
This will keep temperatures warmer than the last few evenings, especially with a slightly mixed boundary layer and higher dewpoints.
1231 AM EDT Mon May 30 2022 A backdoor cold front pushes slowly south towards Maine late tonight and Monday, then moves south through the state Monday night into Tuesday morning.
353 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022 Dry, confluent upper level flow will cover the area today behind the upper low that will be spinning into the northern plains.
Under sunny skies, mid aftn readings were in the lower and mid 80s. Summerlike conds are expected to cont thru much of the PD as a mid lvl ridge axis rmns situated acrs the SE half of AR.
233 AM EDT Mon May 30 2022 High pressure remains centered over the Mid-Atlantic tonight. This area of high pressure then moves offshore Memorial Day and becomes centered over the western Atlantic through the middle of the week. An area of high pressure became centered over the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon. There may be a few spots in the northwestern Piedmont that get a bit cooler with temperatures dropping into the mid 50s.
349 AM EDT Mon May 30 2022 Another dry day is expected for the North Country as high pressure remains over the region. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday. Tuesday will also start out dry, but a backdoor cold front will move into the area from the northeast and bring cooler conditions along with the potential for some light rain showers.
The forecast remains on track this evening as a weak upper level low lingers over the local area. By Monday, the upper low is expected to dissipate as the area becomes situated along the southwestern periphery of an upper ridge centered over the eastern CONUS. By Tuesday, the upper level ridge over the Appalachians begins to build southwestward over the local area and into eastern Texas. Surface ridging over the western Atlantic will also nudge into the region, causing a southeasterly surface flow to persist. Could see a few stronger thunderstorms if cells are able to merge, but given the presence of an upper level ridge and bulk shear values of 25 knots or less, not expecting any organized severe weather. Lows tonight and Monday night will fall into the mid 60s inland to the lower 70s at the beaches.
353 AM EDT Mon May 30 2022 High pressure will keep the region dry and warm into mid week.
221 AM MDT Mon May 30 2022 Deep upslope flow has developed under strong diffluence aloft, as the upper low moves across Wyoming. Numerous showers are expected to continue today, giving way to more scattered showers this evening, as the upper low proceeds into the Dakotas. The much cooler temps will stop the high elevation snow melt, but expect to see rain on snow at the mid elevations (roughly at the 6500-8000 feet layer). Gilstad Quieter weather is in store for the middle of the week as current system exits and is replaced by rising heights and building ridge over western MT.
445 AM EDT Mon May 30 2022 Increased rain chances over the next few days as ridging aloft to our north over the E CONUS and surface ridging over the W Atlantic provide moisture influx via E/SE flow across the peninsula. Increasing late afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms expected during the first half of the week with high pressure over the Atlantic favoring southeast and east flow over the waters.
High pressure remains overhead through Tuesday, with hot temperatures expected across the area. Rain showers and thunderstorms return midweek, with cooler temperatures into the weekend. High pressure will continue to build into the area today, bringing mostly sunny conditions and temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s. High pressure will remain overhead, allowing for overnight patchy valley fog and hot temperatures during the afternoon. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than Memorial Day, topping out in the upper 80s to low 90s.
320 AM EDT Mon May 30 2022 Warm high pressure will persist over our region through most of the week.
/issued 944 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022/ An upper ridge generally remains the dominating synoptic feature of the weather in our area, which should continue to keep conditions benign through the overnight hours. The ridge will move farther east as a broad longwave trough digs into the Rockies, and the flow aloft will become increasingly southwesterly.
Dry and windy conditions will last into Monday over eastern Arizona continuing the high fire danger. For Tuesday through the end of the week, expect lighter winds and warmer temperatures as high pressure returns. The dry and windy conditions continue across most of northern Arizona this afternoon and evening as the trough continues to move over our area. The trough moves out of the area late Tuesday, with a ridge of high pressure building in right behind it.
Southerly flow continues into Monday as upper troughing digs in over the Rockies, with upper high downstream across the Midwest. Temperatures in the upper 80s Monday afternoon with some spots touching 90, then again on Tuesday before the western CONUS trough moves east and upper ridging flattens and shifts into the southwest CONUS.
1113 PM EDT Sun May 29 2022 Building high pressure will keep the region dry and warm into mid week.
An upper low over the area tonight will move south into Oregon on Monday.