Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
324 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2017 An upper level trough across southwest Canada will dig southeast into the northern and central high plains by 12Z SAT. The low-level cold air advection will only allow highs to reach around 40 across the northern counties with mid 40s across the southern half of the CWA. Tonight, As the upper level trough approaches the central high plains, an increase in frontogenetical forcing will cause an area of snow to develop across western NE, that will move southeast through the night and may reach the northern counties of the CWA by 12Z SAT. Most forecast soundings show the low-level dry air remaining in place across the southern half of the CWA, therefore precip may not begin in the southern counties until after 12Z SAT.
In this area, the low level jet has increased the low-level shear values just enough to support organized updrafts in the storms as the the front makes its way through. Pretty quiet for the next 12 to 15 hours as a cold front will begin to slide into the region.
Classic case of a "dirty ridge" over Norcal with WAA interacting with a swath of Pacific moisture with values over 180-190% of normal, perhaps resulting in light showers/sprinkles over the Nrn mtns and Nrn Sac Vly. RH progs suggest some thinning of the high clouds Fri evening. JHM High pressure will remain in control of NorCal weather through the weekend, bringing dry and mild weather. Models continue to advertise a shower or two across northern Shasta county mountains through Friday over the ridge, but won't amount to much.
239 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2017 High pressure was centered over west central Manitoba early this morning with the ridge axis into the eastern Dakotas. This has led to warmer temps due to less radiational cooling which in turn has kept the wind chill values in the respectable range. The high center will be nearly stationary today through Friday.
The surface cold front was just entering northwest TN and will arrive between 12-15Z through the forecast area. Temperatures may fall a bit late this morning, then recover back into the lower to middle 50s for afternoon highs as sunshine returns.
This is all due to a ridge of high pressure over the western CONUS advecting in some drier and warmer air.
Mid level frontogenesis has developed across the highway 14 corridor and will sink south into the I90 corridor over the next few hours. Much cooler and drier air will begin filtering into the region from the north overnight. Temperatures will cool into the single digits for much of the region, and the lower teens in south central. Snow will spread across the area on Friday night as the low levels saturate and isentropic lift increases on the 290-295K surfaces.
In the northern stream, an upper level trough will move south across the area Sun night and bring another shot of cold air to the area.
Best PoPs during the day will continue to lie east of Pittsburgh with terrain enhancement aiding snow shower coverage, with best accumulation along the higher ridges southeast of the city. Upper troughing pattern will continue through the weekend with well below normal temperatures.
In this area, the low level jet has increased the low-level shear values just enough to support organized updrafts in the storms as the the front makes its way through. This convective activity is well ahead of a cold front and winds will not swing around to the north until around 17-18z.
240 AM EST Fri Mar 10 2017 Much below normal temperatures are in store from today through the weekend as a broad ridge of Canadian high pressure settles into the region.
1150 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017 This Evening: The only reason for the update was to remove thunderstorms from Southeast Labette County as the SE-moving cold front has pushed all convection SE of this area. Northeast winds will increase to above 15 mph overnight as a cold front continues to slide southward. Much cooler temperatures are in store for tomorrow with highs only reaching into the upper 40s to lower 50s.
The low-level cold advection in conjunction with increasing clouds will result in highs on Friday ranging from the upper 20s north to upper 30s south.
1123 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017 For the 06Z TAFs, sfc cold front will continue moving across the forecast area with northeast winds in its wake. /Issued 545 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017/ For the 00Z TAFs, a surface cold front will move across the terminal sites this evening and tonight with north to northeast winds behind this boundary.
1126 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017 A cold front will sag south into northern Nebraska this evening, then continue south and stall late tonight across northern Colorado and Kansas.
A cold front extending from SE OK into Cntrl AR should continue to drift S to near the Red River of extreme NE TX/SE OK into SW AR by 12Z, with sct convection ongoing attm along the front expected to weaken with time as it approaches the region, but could redevelop and affect Scntrl AR/Ncntrl LA.
317 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2017 Much cooler temperatures are expected across central and southeast Illinois through the period.
A strong cold front will eventually push thru mid state region tonight. This will set the stage for bringing in a significant CAA pattern to the mid state region Fri and into the weekend, as strong Canadian high pressure builds into the mid state region.
A cold front lies across our eastern plains with widespread stratus around 1000 feet AGL behind the cold front.
In the ridges, precip is not expected to changeover to snow until very late.
Opted to go on the cool side of guidance today with 40s for highs, with the coolest readings in the lower to mid 40s along a Dodge City to Scott City corridor. Current thinking is that cloud cover in this area should preclude the rain from freezing upon impact.
Cold front was settling southward across central MO and southern IL with a very cold airmass to follow. 3 pm temperatures in the dvn cwa ranged from the upper 30s along Highway 20 to the lower 50s in our far south. Tonight: There may be scattered sprinkles late this afternoon and early this evening coming out of a mid deck as the low levels are quite dry. Otherwise, the cold front will continue to push southward as strong (1050 mb) arctic high pressure builds out of Manitoba Canada.
This is partly in association with lift from a backdoor cold front.
256 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2017 Cold front from last evening has pushed well east of the forecast area as of 08Z, with clear skies and brisk northwest wind in its wake.
1123 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017 Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into this evening in advance of a cold front that will approach and move through the region tonight. The cold front and storms are expected to move south of the area fairly quickly, exiting the region by midnight. Temperatures Friday night will drop in earnest as the Canadian/Arctic air slides south across the Plains as a ridge develops over the Rockies.
316 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2017 Cold front currently across the Texas Panhandle will push south into the Permian Basin today and into the mountains by early this evening, aided by strong pressure rises behind it. There will be a significant temperature gradient by this afternoon with temperatures in the lower 60s in the extreme western Low Rolling Plains behind the front to near 90 along the Rio Grande River.
1208 AM EST Fri Mar 10 2017 Weak high pressure will build over the area overnight.
Changes in our weather pattern are occurring as a middle/upper trough is developing over south central Canada and the Dakotas and will move southeast through the Upper Great Lakes tonight into the Upper Ohio Valley by tomorrow morning. Low pressure develops over southwest Indiana this evening and move eastward allowing high pressure and colder air to move in overnight and Friday. Surface analysis shows low pressure associated with this wave over western Kentucky. Cold High pressure was found across the northern plains. Excellent cold air advection begins tonight as colder air arrives associated with the high pressure over the northern plains. As low pressure moves eastward and high pressure builds in from the northwest ending the precipitation from northwest to southeast going through the early hours of Friday morning.
1028 PM MST Thu Mar 9 2017 A cold front will move southward this evening into southeast CO, bringing northerly winds that may be gusty for a little while. The HRRR and GFS are not showing the low levels being as moist as the NAM. It will be cooler on Fri acrs the southeast plains. Even with the front moving thru the area, temps are expected to be above average on Sat, with highs in the upper 50s through the lower 60s acrs the high valleys and southeast plains.
236 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2017 Backdoor cold front has moved through all but the far southwest Texas Panhandle early this morning.
Expect gradual clearing by this afternoon as the cold front currently extending SW from central West Virginia into NW Tennessee finally pushes east of the area by afternoon. Temperatures will then begin to fall by this evening, dropping to near and below freezing under clear skies across much of the area. Elsewhere temperatures will teeter near freezing in a light overnight breeze. Guidance is split at around the freezing mark for the southern half of the area, therefore went with consensus for current fcst.
411 AM EST Fri Mar 10 2017 Building high pressure will bring much colder temperatures for today. High pressure will begin to build from the nw today, but H8 CAA should lower lapse rates and aid in the develop of stratocu this afternoon. They will range from the lower 30s in the north to a around 40 in nrn KY. High pressure will continue to settle down into the region from the northwest tonight. Due to the unseasonably warm temperatures of the past several weeks, some vegetation may be vulnerable to the freezing temperatures.
1101 PM EST Thu Mar 9 2017 Weak high pressure will build over the area overnight.
Guidance and model forecast soundings have also backed off of the lower conditions. The models were differing on the timing of the cold frontal passage. Some of the high resolution models now bring the front into the area during the afternoon tomorrow (Friday) from the northeast. /ISSUED 913 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017/ At 6 PM, a weak trough of low pressure extended from about Ponca City OK to Lubbock.
A warm front continues moving north with decreasing areal coverage of rain this evening across the Lower Columbia Basin and the Foothills of the Blue Mountains in Oregon.
A cold front will push through the forecast area during the day with winds shifting to the north.
340 AM EST Fri Mar 10 2017 Cold front exits east across the eastern mountains by mid morning. A cold front will exit east of the eastern mountains by mid morning.
A weak cold front will move into West Central Texas tomorrow morning, from the north, and produce lingering MVFR ceilings, at Abilene and San Angelo, until late afternoon. A weak cold front will move into our northern counties between 3AM and 6AM. Friday, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible tomorrow as the cold front stalls near central portions of our forecast area, and have kept the inherited rain chances for most of the area. The cold front, along with additional cloud cover will result in cooler temperatures tomorrow, especially north of a Sterling City to Brownwood line. 20 (Friday Night through Thursday) A weak cold frontal boundary expected to stall over the northern CWA Tomorrow will retreat northward as a warm front Friday night.
200 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2017 Storms are about to exit Middle Tennessee as a cold front sweeps through the mid state. Look for skies to begin clearing out from NW to SE as we head toward morning, with mostly sunny skies today in spite of significantly cooler temperatures.
Models, even the high resolution output, is having a hard in pin pointing the position and movement at this time. For late this afternoon into tonight the backdoor cold front moves through the entire area gusty winds behind this front especially in the northern portion of the area. The combination of cloud cover and winds from a neutral to slight upslope direction, bringing in recycled cool air, should make for a cooler day. So again went with a blend on the temperatures which leans toward a warmer solution. At this time the dewpoints appear to stay high enough and will keep relative humidities above 20 percent despite the high wind speeds.
1126 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017 A surface cold frontal boundary crossed through our cwa overnight/this morning. In the cooler airmass, afternoon temperatures were running nearly 10 degrees cooler than yesterday with readings ranging from the upper 40s in our northern zones to the mid 60s in the south. The low clouds will mix out in the west in the return flow on Friday with mid/high clouds remaining prevalent. Temperatures will trend below seasonal normals with highs averaging in the low 30s to mid 40s (northeast to southwest).
Signal of sharp pressure trough indicated on all guidance, and while moist layer remains fairly shallow, would expect enough convergence with temperatures slipping into a favorable ice generation range to at least see scattered flurries, mainly for areas near and east of a KHON to KFSD to KCIN line. If anywhere was more likely to see a meager measurable snowfall amount, it would likely be near the Buffalo Ridge from later tonight through Wednesday morning.
Tonight looks to be quiet as well, with above average low temperatures, but cooler weather will move in with the arrival of the cold front/stationary boundary which will impact the mid state over the next few days. As the broad upper trough slowly moves eastward in southern Canada, cold air will shift southward over the eastern CONUS.
The quiet and mild conditions will continue through the morning as a cold front approaches the area.
205 AM EST Wed Feb 1 2017 A weak cold front crosses later today.
Temperatures in western Nebraska ranging in the lower to mid 20s. An upper level trough extending from northern Washington and Northern Montana will move slowly eastward today. The highest chances near 80 percent this morning across northern Sheridan and northwest Cherry county. Much cooler air already in place across the region, with daily highs already having occurred at midnight most locations. Daytime highs from the lower 20s northwest to the the upper 20s southeast. The above mentioned synoptic features will persist, as an upper trough moves into the West Coast.
The pattern aloft featured northwest flow across the interior conus, a deep low pressure system over the Hudson Bay, an upstream trough in the Pacific Northwest with additional energy rotating around the upper low across the central Canadian provinces into the Dakotas.
The polar jet remains north of the area and an upper level ridge of high pressure remains over the Great Basin and California. The ridge to our west will break down late this week and open the door for a more active period.
High pressure will build in through the rest of the week.
354 AM CST Wed Feb 1 2017 Cold front is dropping south across the northern CWA early this morning, with moderate cold air advection behind it and a switch from northwest winds to more northerly winds. Highs today will be much cooler than recent days, with highs in the teens. Lows both tonight and tomorrow night were dropped a few degrees, and tended to lean on the cooler guidance numbers, especially in the James valley.
Temperatures at 3 AM range from the mid to upper 50s well inland to the lower to mid 60s at the coast.
On Wednesday, a cold front will push south into our northern counties during the morning, reaching KABI around 17Z. On Wednesday, a cold front will move south into our northern counties during the morning, reaching KABI around 17Z. Overnight temperatures will be a little warmer tonight, with lows ranging from the mid 30s across the I-10 corridor to the mid 40s along the I-20 areas. Cold front will move across West Central Texas on Wednesday, although for areas south of a San Angelo to Brownwood line the front will arrive after peak heating. In these areas, afternoon highs will climb into the lower 70s and lower 80s. Cooler temperatures across the Big Country with afternoon highs in the mid and upper 60s. 07 (Wednesday night through Tuesday) A cold front will move south of West Central Texas by late evening Wednesday.
322 AM CST Wed Feb 1 2017 Back door cold front poised just to the north of the forecast area at 09z with temperatures falling off into the single digits and teens north of the front. As such, have sided towards cooler guidance values, but did not go as extreme as the ADJMAV guidance.
1121 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2017 The view from satellite imagery this afternoon shows the nation under the influence of a modest ridge-trough pattern, though the amplitude is low enough to locally result in a shallow northwest flow across the Central Plains.
316 AM CST Wed Feb 1 2017 Surface boundary is working its way southward through Middle Tennessee early this morning with rapidly dropping temperatures and a cooler air mass spreading in behind the front.
1256 AM EST Wed Feb 1 2017 Weak low pressure slowly moves east of Long Island tonight. Another area of low pressure moves across New England Wednesday.
1258 AM EST Wed Feb 1 2017 Low pressure will lift northeastward from our area through tonight.
A strong cold front is swiftly dropping southward into Central WI/southern MN early this morning. The snow showers may drop through the area this morning before the low-levels dry out behind the front and skies clear.
Moisture levels will increase ahead of a cold front that is expected to traverse the region tonight and early Wednesday morning. Fog, mist, and light freezing drizzle will become a possibility around or just after midnight as sharply cooler air combines with the increased moisture in the region. Temperatures will fall into the lower 20s tonight. Highs on Wednesday will struggle to climb into the lower 30s and we may only see upper 20s in many locations where thick cloud cover remains in place all day. The overall H5/H7 flow over the Central Plains from the latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF does favor mainly zonal flow with some ridging building over the area towards the latter half of the weekend.
Radar is showing off this boundary as generating very light snow across the region and AWOS observations are helping to extrapolate the gaps on this low stratus slightly over the Yellowstone Valley. GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: Broad upper trough lies over the eastern two-thirds of Canada and the northern states. With a ridge over the Gulf of Alaska, northerly flow is occurring over western Canada. Some overrunning moisture that drops south through Alberta dissipates as it runs into the high.
A weak cold front that slowly moved into our CWA late last night/early this morning has temporarily become quasi-stationary from NE-SW across western Kentucky and far southeast Missouri. The front is expected to show little to no movement through Wednesday morning, then will get pushed further south and east of our area as high pressure filters in. High pressure slowly overspreading the area in the wake of the front should keep the region dry through the end of the short term period. The latest blend has come in warmer but still well below ECMWF or GFS MOS guidance.
The low level moisture remains early this afternoon, but dries early in the evening, with mostly clear skies expected. A cold front brings a reinforcing shot of cold air, with falling temperatures by afternoon. Wind should pick up, as the pressure gradient tightens due to strong high pressure building towards us from the northern Rockies and Great Plains.
A secondary cold front to our north is expected to shift through the northern counties later this afternoon and the rest of the forecast area overnight.
Another trough will slide across the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday. High pressure will gradually move from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley for the remainder of the week. Temperatures will slowly cool in the wake of the low with precipitation taking its time transitioning back to all snow. The highest amounts will be in the snowbelt but should only add up to 1 to 3 inches. This would mainly be across the higher terrain in Geauga County and NW PA. Most locations will drop just below freezing overnight so areas of ice may be an issue for the morning commute.
/issued 942 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2017/ 9 PM CST surface map showed a pressure trof roughly parallel to and just north of the I-40 corridor. The cold front is expected to stall just south of the CWA late tomorrow, providing a focus for additional light rain showers through the remainder of the work week.
/ISSUED 905 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2017/ At 8 PM, weak low pressure was located near Lubbock with high pressure over the north central Gulf.
High pressure will build into the region beginning tonight and remain the primary influence on our weather into the first part of the weekend with cold and dry conditions.
Even if snow does reach the ground tonight/Wed morning, temps will be just above freezing so not expecting any impacts. Mild and dry weather continues on Wednesday, but a weak cold front pushing south of the region will knock Wednesday night mins back in line with climo.
High pressure will dominate our weather with the storm track remaining north of the area through this weekend.
/JPM3/ High pressure at the surface and quasi-zonal flow aloft will continue to overall maintain quiet conditions across the forecast area tonight into Wednesday afternoon. However, a weak cold front will try to sink south into the far northern quarter of the CWA late Wednesday afternoon. Then for Wednesday afternoon, with a gradual increase in clouds through the day, we should still warm pretty decently ahead of the boundary with highs ranging from the low to upper 70s.
Drier, but cooler conditions can be anticipated for late week. Areas north of I 80, where temperature is hovering around the freezing mark may still experience an inch or so before this system exits. With strengthening upslope on Wed mrng, have upped POPs and accumulation amounts on the ridges where a quick couple of inches are anticipated.
otherwise arctic air will ooze south into the area behind a cold front, with highs only in the 20s Wednesday.
With the clouds and temperatures being on the cooler side, there could be an outside chance for a couple of flurries. With a north wind, that will feel cooler.
302 AM CST Wed Feb 1 2017 An upper level trough will dig southeast out of central Canada into the Great Lakes States and amplify a longer wave-length trough across the east central US.
/issued 339 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2017/ High pressure will continue to linger across South Florida in one form or another through the week.
1129 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2017 The cold front near the Missouri border will move slowly south through Wednesday. Expect more clouds over the area Wednesday as the cold front moves further south.
Mesoscale models like the HRRR and RAP13 continue to show some patchy fog developing over far west central Kansas for a few hours around and shortly after daybreak before diminishing so am still looking for some patchy fog to develop mainly along the Highways 96/50 corridor west of Scott City and Lakin. With cold air advection continuing, high temperatures today will top out several degrees cooler than on Tuesday. Surface winds become more easterly with time tonight, especially over central and western parts of the forecast area which could aid in the development of some patchy freezing fog and freezing drizzle generally west of a Wakeeney to Elkhart line.
An approaching cold front will increase mid and eventually low level clouds during Wednesday afternoon and winds will slowly increase to around 10 KTs.
1045 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2017 Winds will generally be below 10 knots and variable prior to the arrival of a cold front early Wednesday morning. A back door cold front will slowly work its way south through the Panhandles region from NE to SW during the day tomorrow.
Otherwise, skies should partially clear this afternoon with max temps from the lower 40s to lower 50s from north to south across the CWA--still about 5 degrees above average.