Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
600 PM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 High pressure will remain in control through Tuesday. More unsettled weather is expected mid to late week as a slow moving low pressure system traverses the area. A cold front will push through the area this weekend, with high pressure building in behind it. High pressure will continue to extend over the area from offshore tonight, as low pressure begins to strengthen over TX/OK. Moisture in the low levels remains limited, but very weak southerly flow above the surface inversion could be enough to bring some moisture mixing into the BL as guidance indicated dewpoints rising well into the 30s throughout the night. High pressure slides further offshore, with WAA gradually increasing.
High pressure will slowly move across srn WI and Lake MI on Tue with any clouds dissipating by late morning. A cold front/lake breeze will push southeast and drive the frontal boundary from northeast to southwest through the forecast area this afternoon and evening, bringing an abrupt end to the warmer temperatures. Lows tonight will settle into the low to mid 30s.
401 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 Overall it will be a warmer than normal forecast period with highs generally in the 60s.
609 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) Upper trough overhead will continue to slide east/southeast this evening. Associated surface cold front that is currently across western Oklahoma will be near I-35 corridor by 00Z. The upper low becomes closed off overnight and slowing down, which will keep a chance of at least some light rain across parts of central into southeast Oklahoma tonight and possibly into early part of the day Tuesday.
Today Through Wednesday Night A low pressure system, currently located near the TX/OK/AR border, is expected to make its way into the area today. High pressure then builds back in Wednesday returning dry and calm conditions to the CWA.
Low pressure passes south of the area Wednesday. A cold front crosses near the end of the week, with rain possible. Lows overnight will be just about normal with mid to upr 30's expected in the lowlands and low to mid 30's in the northeast mountains. Highs will climb to near norms for this time of year and top off at around the low to mid 60's in the lowlands and fairly cooler for the mountains at around the low 50's. A northern stream trough emerging from the intermountain west today will brush by the region to the south Wednesday into Wednesday night producing light rain across SW VA, as well as S and E WV.
A cold front will drop into the forecast area Wednesday afternoon. Favorable mixing through much of the day ahead of the cold front should allow highs to reach into the lower to mid 70s across the southeastern half of the forecast area. Winds at this time look a bit light for any fire weather concerns as the front moves through in tandem with the lowest RH.
308 AM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Today is the start of our warm up as afternoon temperatures will reach above freezing in all areas. South winds 10-15 kts along with about a 4C rise in 850 mb temps will bring warmer temps to the area. Exactly how warm it will get as we head into this warmer period is uncertain. so fcst will call for a chance of light rain/freezing rain. For the rest of the area a dry night ahead and for most of the night temps will stay above freezing. but west wind shift for daytime Wednedsday a favorable west wind and 850 mb temps +3 to +6C will bring highs a few degrees warmer than on Tuesday.
Skies remain sunny through the remainder of the afternoon with temperatures running in the low to mid 60s. Low pressure weakens as it drops southeast over the ArkLaTex region tonight. However, there is some dry air to contend with in the lower levels. Temperatures will be warmer tonight due to a light south wind and increase in cloud cover. Southern stream trof digging into the Red River Valley today will close off tonight, and should be a fairly compact "bowling ball" low as it tracks across the Deep South on Wednesday.
1204 AM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Overall it will be a warmer than normal forecast period with highs generally in the 60s.
Dry weather is expected Wednesday when low pressure is forecast to track to the south. Showers return later this week ahead of low pressure advancing from the southwest. Under a south to southwest low level flow, temperatures should rise to the low and mid 60s in most locations. The weak boundary is expected to dissipate by tonight as high pressure centered to the east becomes dominant. Low pressure developing near the gulf coast is forecast to remain far enough south to keep precip out of the ILN area tonight through Wednesday. For Wednesday night, mid level closed low is expected to stay to our south and east.
(Today through Wednesday) In the wake of the spring storm system the cold front is moving through rather weakly in the overnight hours. Most lows will be in the 40s and that should set up for an even warmer afternoon Wednesday. Breezy conditions will combine with dry dewpoints along and west of the Highway 281 corridor will make for some elevated to near critical fire weather conditions today.
This should gradually be overcome late in the night as stronger QG forcing develops on the NE side of the closed mid/upper low.
/issued 854 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022/ An upper level low pressure system will move into the Lower Mississippi River Valley on Tuesday. No freezing temperatures are in the forecast through the weekend. Current temperatures are in the low to middle 60s across the area and may approach 70 degrees this afternoon, though clouds may limit much additional warming.
230 AM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022 High pressure will remain in control today. More unsettled weather is expected mid to late week as a slow moving low pressure system traverses the area. A cold front will push through the area this weekend, with high pressure building in behind it. Latest sfc analysis shows offshore high pressure ridging westward into the Carolinas, as low pressure strengthens over eastern TX/OK. High pressure will continue to weaken across the area today as the low moves eastward, with WAA grad increasing. Offshore high pressure will weaken its hold across the area overnight as low pressure moves through the gulf states. Increasing mid and high clouds overnight ahead of the low should limit radiational cooling, with lows falling into the mid/upper 40s inland and upper 40s/low 50s for the beaches.
328 AM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Warmer temperatures are expected Tuesday with continued dry conditions.
Even as temperatures are currently remaining slightly warmer than the previous forecast trend, temperatures should still drop off to the previous forecast -- or perhaps even a couple degrees cooler than the previous forecast in the eastern sections of the ILN CWA. Previous discussion > Southwest flow will continue across the region tonight as high pressure continues to shift off to the southeast. Lows tonight will range from the mid 30s in the southeast to the lower 40s in the northwest. Temperatures will continue to gradually moderate with highs on Tuesday in the upper 50s north to the lower/mid 60s across the south. Anomalous upper level ridging will be in place over the Ohio Valley on Wednesday while a weak stacked low progresses across the southeast.
Temperatures are nearly steady in the low to mid 50s under overcast skies. An upper low, currently anchored near the ArkLaTex region, will move slowly into the Lower Mississippi Valley through this afternoon. The low is progged to take a east-southeast track through central Mississippi through Wednesday morning. The upper low will lift out the region on Wednesday and upper level ridging will build in behind it through midweek. This will translate to a dry and warmer than normal temperature regime.
344 AM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Moisture advection is slowly ramping up ahead of the trough currently located in the Lower MS Valley is providing mid/high overcast skies. Drier air lingering in the lower levels are keeping much of the precip from reaching the ground, with a few exceptions. With this set up, will also see a gradient of temps, with upper 60s north of the TN River and the lower 60s south of the river. Coverage will slowly decrease as the low moves eastward, however wrap around precip will keep rainfall well into the day on Wednesday (before finally tapering off in the afternoon).
413 AM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Satellite imagery shows a mid-level, cutoff, low-pressure system organized in the eastern Southern Plains, moving into the Mississippi River Valley. things begin to dry out Wed night as a weak high pressure ridge build in for Thu, but this dry spell will be short lived. The GFS opting for a more robust and deeper parent closed low deepening over the Great Lakes and the Euro keeping a more subdued solution taking the low over the Ohio Valley.
255 AM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022 High pressure will extend westward across North Carolina through today.
Temperatures are still holding near or above freezing over parts of the Devils Lake Basin and our far east deeper in the forested areas of MN. The southern stream will be more dominant over the forecast area with resultant warmer temperatures expected during this time frame.
353 AM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Warmer temperatures and mostly dry conditions are expected today.
A weak wave of low pressure will move east and push the boundary farther south today where it will wash out. Another cold front will approach Wednesday night and low pressure will ride northeast along it toward Michigan.
Expect 24-hour snow totals in the 1 to 3 inch range for western valleys, 3 to 5 inch range over Teton and Togwotee passes, and 4 to 8 inches of new accumulation in the high terrain of the Tetons and Gros Ventres. The trough and associated front will continue to slowly move eastward across the region Wednesday. Precipitation will be primarily snow, although with the warmer daytime temperatures, basins will see rain. The snow amounts will remain on the light side, however, the western mountains will see the highest amounts.
1056 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 KEY MESSAGES: - Much warmer temperatures this week with 40s, 50s, and 60s expected. A warm front will lift north Tuesday. Much warmer air will flow northward and the snow-free areas from southern MN and south will allow it to reach the area unimpeded. Highs in the upper 50s are likely, and could reach the 60s on the lee side of the Buffalo Ridge.
Precipitation is advancing through central Oregon this evening ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Will first see a steady rain/snow in advance of the cold front, changing to showers and possible thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon behind the cold front. Decided to include a slight chance of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon when the storm's cold front enters western Idaho, in agreement with SPC's latest forecast.
233 AM MDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Upper ridge will bring warm temperatures and mainly dry weather to the region today. many areas will have highs today in the lower to mid 60s with highs in the 50s in the north. Look for somewhat cooler temperatures and gusty west to NW winds behind the front on Wednesday.
1118 PM MDT Mon Mar 14 2022 A split trough is crossing the central CONUS, with weak upper ridging over the west. At the surface, the CWA sits between troughs to the northwest and southeast. Upper ridge axis will cross the Rockies Tuesday, and warmer air will advect into our area behind a warm front. Tuesday night, an upper trough will approach, and a cold front will sweep through the northern plains. Behind the front, Wednesday will be cooler (highs in the upper 40s to upper 50s), and northwesterly winds will be breezy.
06Z TAF discussion: As a low pressure system moves over the region through the TAF period, SHRA and occasional TSRA will move over the region. A speed max rounding the base of the closed low tonight is expected to help consolidate the convection into a line that will track east across the southern portions of our CWA tonight into Tuesday morning. Additional convection is expected Tuesday afternoon as the nearly stacked low pressure system moves over our CWA. Otherwise, temperatures will be cooler than today across most of our CWA but the south may see a decent amount of insolation after the morning convection ends and top out in the lower 70s. /22/ By Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, rain chances will decrease from west to east as a closed low centered over MS should begin to lift to our northeast.
311 AM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Dry high pressure will remain over the area, before a moist low pressure system advances from the southwest and increases rain chances tonight into Wednesday.
Another storm will bring cooler weather to the region as well as potential for accumulating snow to mainly the north central and northeast.
H85 CAG-CPR gradients should peak around 75 meters early this AM before gradually lowering into the lower 50s by 00z this evening. Certainly possible for high winds to spread into eastern Platte County as well, so have gone ahead & added that zone to the High Wind Warning valid until 06z.
A weak front ran east northeast from the low into lower Michigan. Quiet, dry and warmer than normal conditions will be seen today and tonight across the area.
238 AM MDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Current surface map places weak trof across western South Dakota. With flat upper level ridge over the plains, thermal profiles peak this this afternoon. Quiet weather for the remainder of the week as upper level trof slides east.
Low pressure passes south of the area Wednesday, with a few showers possible. A cold front crosses near the end of the week, with rain expected. Lows tonight are forecast to range from the lower 30s to near 40 degrees. A cut off low pressure system lifts northeast across AL and GA, bringing some moisture and upper level forcing to produce rain showers across the south and east portions of our CWA Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Expect erosion of the low clouds/fog during the morning, but with rather weak boundary layer flow and remaining snowpack inhibiting mixing, the lower clouds could linger longer across north-central WI. 850 mb flow will strengthen in advance of the approaching trough which will support S/SW winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph on Wednesday. Although NAEFS 850 mb temp anomalies aren't overly impressive, there has been very strong consistency for well above average temps - into the 60s for many locations with low 70s not out of the question in warmer locales if deeper mixing occurs and there is little impact from increasing high clouds.
Much warmer southerly low level flow will develop across the area on Wednesday downstream of height falls/troughing over the western conus.
331 AM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022 High pressure over the southeast United States will maintain dry weather through today with temperatures moderating. A low pressure system deepens over the Gulf Coast today, then moves east across the southeastern U. High pressure over the Atlantic Ocean shifts east today as low pressure organizes near Mobile Bay. Temperatures should warm into the upper 50s to low 60s for the mountains, and into upper 60s/near 70 east of the Blue Ridge.
Low pressure passes south of the area Wednesday. A cold front crosses near the end of the week, with rain possible. Lows overnight will be just about normal with mid to upr 30's expected in the lowlands and low to mid 30's in the northeast mountains. Highs will climb to near norms for this time of year and top off at around the low to mid 60's in the lowlands and fairly cooler for the mountains at around the low 50's. A cut off low pressure system lifts northeast across AL and GA, bringing some moisture and upper level forcing to produce rain showers across the south and east portions of our CWA Wednesday and Wednesday night.
359 AM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022 The forecast challenge is temperature within the low level WAA regime today in southwest mixing winds, as well as on Wednesday when low level thermal advection may be described as weak CAA or neutral air advection when mixing winds become northwesterly, and fire weather concerns. This low level WAA sequence will persist throughout today on southwesterly component mixing layer winds. A cold frontal passage is forecast in the middle of tonight, turning winds around to a northwest direction and breezy/windy at times. Mid level ridging is progged to build across the region this weekend as an upper trough shifts onshore and into the southwestern interior of the CONUS.
433 AM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022 A broad, strong area of high pressure situated off the Mid- Atlantic coast has maintained fresh to strong breezes for a majority of the night. A mid-level low over the western Gulf States is moving southeastward, which is causing this area of high pressure to slowly loosen its tight grip across the region. Thereafter, the parent low will lift to the northeast and a low to mid-level ridge will nose its way across the area. Breezes will become light to gentle by Wednesday night as a weak cold front approaches the area before dissipating.
1121 PM MDT Mon Mar 14 2022 Quiet conditions will persist for the next 24 hours, as the transitory ridge proceeds to flatten into the next wave of concern Wednesday morning.
Much of the morning should be dry, but by afternoon additional showers will begin spreading northward into our southern counties around an upper level low passing to our south. These showers will continue northward through most of the area overnight through Wednesday morning as the upper low makes its closest approach, before all activity exits the area by Wednesday afternoon. Despite the precip and increase in cloud cover, both today and Wednesday look to be even warmer than we saw yesterday with highs reaching the 60s to around 70 areawide.
359 AM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Dry and warmer weather is expected through the end of the week.
Lows reaching around the freezing mark of 32F or so will probably gradually increase as one moves eastward into central Kansas while lows closer to 40 should be common. Wednesday afternoon will see the leading edge of the next cold high pressure airmass, with backing surface winds out of the north and northeast, while full insolation continues to warm the afternoon temperatures into the 70s.
(Today) Scattered areas of light rain persist early this morning on backside of upper low, currently moving into the ARKLATX region.
1049 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) Upper trough overhead will continue to slide east/southeast this evening. Associated surface cold front that is currently across western Oklahoma will be near I-35 corridor by 00Z. The upper low becomes closed off overnight and slowing down, which will keep a chance of at least some light rain across parts of central into southeast Oklahoma tonight and possibly into early part of the day Tuesday.
159 AM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022 High pressure will linger over the western Atlantic through Tuesday morning. Developing low pressure will move northeast from the Gulf coast region Tuesday night.
Meteorological Analysis: Water vapor channel imagery early this morning shows a closed low within the southern stream approaching the lower Mississippi Valley region. Persistent southwesterly flow into mid-week will support above normal temperatures, particularly by Wednesday as warmer plume aloft advects in and less clouds will support deeper mixing.
(This afternoon through Tuesday night) A weak cold front associated with an upper level trough is pushing through the region today, cultivating a decent temperature spread for highs this afternoon. Across Southeast New Mexico, low to mid 60s are expected with 70s across the lower Trans Pecos and 80s along the Rio Grande. The highest winds will continue to be in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains where a High Wind Warning remains in effect through late afternoon. With the jet max moving out of our area and the trough passing to our east this afternoon, winds are expected to die out fairly quickly and all wind products will expire by sunset. By Tuesday, the trough will be situated over the Gulf states and weak ridging will return to West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
235 AM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Aviation - Very little precip tonight, freezing rain threat minimal The GFS has trended much drier with the cold front tonight as we expected it would. The chance for travel impacts are expected to be minimal as temperature profiles and skin temperatures are marginal for freezing/frozen precip. The ECMWF has trended east with the low and grazes the southern zones while the GEM is currently a compromise between the two. Northeast winds on the north side are advecting in some low level moisture from Lake Huron and when mixed with the cooler air on that side of the boundary have created some low clouds. Conditions will improve during the afternoon in the wake of low pressure moving across the state.
In the upper levels, a flat ridge will move out of the western U. and into Texas causing flow to become more westerly, also advecting in warmer temperatures.
High pressure was building across the Northland this afternoon in the wake of a frontogenetical snow band that affected the southern reaches of the area last night into this morning. This area of high pressure will keep dry conditions in place for the remainder of today and into tonight. There remains some disagreement with this system as the ECMWF and NAM try to develop some showers along the cold front late Wednesday afternoon while the GFS remains dry. Even warmer temperatures are expected Wednesday with highs in the 40s with some lower 50s across our southern northwest Wisconsin zones.
As the low pushes east, POPs will be slowly on the decline late tomorrow, and warmer and drier air should be on tap for Wednesday.
354 AM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022 The Low is at this writing, spinning along the Red River around ARKLATEX, with its attendant thunder/lightning extending as far north as the Little Rock, AR area. That said, hires modeling produces splotchy pcpn across the FA this morning, as the Low moves toward the MS river. Tonight-Tmrw, the Low further spills southeast-ward as it fills.
The low pressure system that brought cooler temperatures and windy conditions to the region today will move through the southern Plains and towards the Gulf Coast tonight through Tuesday. The upper ridge over the Intermountain region today moves into the Central Rockies and High Plains tonight through early Tuesday and flattens through the day on Tuesday and Tuesday night as a series of short wave troughs embedded in the upper flow move across the western U. That lee trough continues to deepen through the day on Tuesday with the pressure gradient supporting gusty south to southwest winds across the area. Lowest RH values will be over the far southwest corner of the forecast area with the highest winds speeds over far eastern Colorado into extreme southwest Nebraska and far western Kansas.
1256 AM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Dry and warmer weather is expected through the end of the week.
359 AM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022 An area of high pressure will continue to keep conditions dry through Wednesday.
A cold front is sweeping across the area this afternoon. A trof ejecting out of the Denver area this morning is diving southeast and closing off as it approaches the Gulf Coast. Southerly flow and continued clear skies will help propel temps higher for Wednesday with 70s filling in more real estate than on Tuesday, though shifted south ahead of the next cold front.
Upper trough will move through Tuesday morning. Generally weather is expected through the overnight hours as a weak and dissipating cold front nears the area from the west. Ahead of the front, a weak upper level trough with some associated mid level lift will pass through during the early morning hours creating a period of cloudy skies and a few sprinkles/light rain showers. The arriving clouds will also help prevent the more robust radiational cooling that has occurred for the last few days with expected lows in the low to mid 40s. Sporadic light rain and sprinkles will be possible through the early portion of the day tomorrow as the aforementioned cold front stalls and becomes diffuse. Expect that lows will fall into the low to mid 40s across central Indiana.