Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
556 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Current upper level analysis and water vapor imagery places a mid-to- upper level inverted trough across northeastern Mexico, which is contributing to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity near the Brownsville area. Through the day tomorrow and mid-week, the sub-tropical ridge will strengthen overhead, resulting in temperatures increasing a few degrees and precipitation chances becoming negligible to non- existent. While Tuesday's high temperatures will be running about 1- 3 degrees warmer than Monday, we should still be able to hold off on any heat headlines in the short term.
940 PM EDT Mon Aug 1 2022 The Carolina Piedmont trough, hot temperatures, and isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be the main weather features through the mid-week period. Lows tonight in the lower to mid 70s with a very light SW wind. A broad mid/upper level trough will traverse the region on Tuesday. Drier air will spread into the area within the developing NWLY flow aloft will push the high +2.
/issued 245 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): Mid level ridging will begin to build overhead in the short term as the inverted trough that helped to increase rain chances both yesterday and earlier today pushes further west. Subsidence from this ridge will hinder convective development tonight through tomorrow and help temperatures to reach near normal for the rest of the short term.
Cooler temperatures expected on Tuesday, with values hovering at near- normal values.
Additional morning clouds Tuesday and Wednesday mornings for cooler temperatures.
Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across much of the region, with the highest chances for convention being north and west of the terminals. The highest chances and coverage should be over Inyo County into the Southern Great Basin.
Discussion: The upper level pattern across the region depicts ridging over the western Plains leaving the local area on the leeside of the ridge under weak northwesterly flow. Couple that with dewpoints remaining in the low to mid 70s and heat index values will range from 102-107. WAA is expected to continue tonight out ahead of a cold front only allowing lows to drop into the mid 70s to near 80. This will force a attendant cold front into the area on Wednesday. This cold front will also be moving into a area of extreme instability on Wednesday afternoon/evening where 2000- 3000+J/Kg of MUCAPE will be available.
245 AM EDT Tue Aug 2 2022 The Carolina Piedmont trough, hot temperatures, and isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be the main weather features through the mid-week period. Lows tonight in the lower to mid 70s with a very light SW wind. High pressure will dominate with only a 20-30 percent chance of an afternoon or early evening thunderstorm, mainly in the SE Coastal Plain.
Scattered pulse thunderstorm potential on Wednesday afternoon, east of the Highway 65 corridor.
If that happens we could see high temperatures a couple of degrees cooler than previously thought (especially over the northwest). still looks hot and muggy though with highs in the low 90s for much of the area. Slight ridging in the mid levels could allow for less shower development as we head into Wednesday.
353 AM EDT Tue Aug 2 2022 A cold front will cross the region this morning and may spark a few showers as it passes. Warm and dry weather is expected Wednesday under high pressure. A cold front will slowly cross the region this morning, exiting the southeast by early afternoon. The high is expected to track E of the area Wednesday, with continued dry but warmer weather as wind shifts to the S.
500 mb pattern last evening showed center of ridge (596 DM) over NM with a trough over southwest Canada and the Pacific NW. That trough will move east/southeast today and tonight, helping force a weak cold front across the northern and central Plains.
Once the fog (and any lingering mid/high clouds) dissipates, good heating will commence this morning and into the afternoon as highs return to the low to mid 90s, with high pressure building into the area from the west. There's still plenty of moisture underneath this ridge, however, and expect scattered convection to redevelop later this afternoon.
222 AM EDT Tue Aug 2 2022 High pressure over the western Atlantic will hold over the Florida peninsula today with a weak gradient and light boundary layer flow.
Our area is under the influence of broad mid-level ridging centered over NM and quiet conditions are expected tonight.
403 AM EDT Tue Aug 2 2022 High pressure will build over the East Coast through midweek.
(Tuesday through Wednesday night) Over the course of the short term period, model guidance suggests that steering currents across the local area will diminish considerably, as a subtropical high centered over the southern Rockies strengthens and expands eastward into the Lower MS Valley, while a high of similar magnitude over the central North Atlantic retrogrades into the southeastern Atlantic Coast.
320 AM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022 The subtropical ridge remains anchored over the Four Corners this morning, extending east-southeast across the northern Gulf of Mexico and immediate Gulf Coast areas. A trough is moving through the Upper OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic states with only a modest jet downstream of the trough axis. Temperatures will warm into the low/mid 90s across the Mid-South with afternoon dewpoints generally in the mid 70s.
With the upper-level ridge centered well to our west, and weak flow over our forecast area, expect another round of showers and thunderstorms to develop across the region by late morning today.
238 AM MDT Tue Aug 2 2022 Cold front has pushed into western and central zones and will advance through the rest of the state this morning. TWH While upper ridging continues to build into he area, heights gets squeezed as a broad upper low tries to also swing south from British Columbia.
In the vicinity/north of an advancing warm front overnight, thunderstorms are likely to develop over WI/upper MI as midlevel lapse rates steepen above a 850-800 mb layer of moisture transport. When an upper level anticyclone is not well established in the region and our upper levels are more influenced by a trough moving through the northern Great Lakes, this is a plausible "heat advisory bust" scenario.
1255 AM EDT Tue Aug 2 2022 A cold front will cross the region this morning and may spark a few showers as it passes. Warm and dry weather is expected Wednesday under high pressure. Scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm remain a risk overnight as the pre-frontal trough crosses the area. The high is expected to track E of the area Wednesday, with continued dry but warmer weather as wind shifts to the S.
Weak upper level ridging extending from the four corners region over much of Texas will provide very limited subsidence that will result in slightly fewer storms developing over southeast Texas compared to south central Louisiana.
- A brief relief from the heat arrives Wednesday with a cold front and scattered showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening. This should bump high temps into the low 100's, resulting in heat indices from 105 to 110. Otherwise activity sags southeast along with the boundary through the afternoon, dropping temps into the low 90s near the NE border. Effective shear however is fairly weak (less than 30 kts) while DCAPE could be on the higher side for isolated severe wind gusts and hail potential through early evening.
(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Currently, there is an upper level high centered near the Four Corners region of the southwestern United States. Unfortunately models are showing this high slowly moving back east towards the Central Plains over the next few days. A weak upper disturbance will round the high and get pulled back west into southeastern New Mexico Wednesday.
High pressure moving through the Great Lakes today will keep things seasonable; highs in the 80s and not too humid with dew points in the 60s. Dew points will rise well into the 70s paired with highs in the low-90s. Needless to say, this environment will be plenty unstable for late afternoon/evening thunderstorms ahead of an approaching cold front. Forward progress of the cold front slows Wednesday night such that there is a non-zero risk of training thunderstorms.
A weak upper trough pushed quickly through the area today. This lower cloud layer will stick around for a few hours before retreating back to the coast, around 17. High pressure will remain offshore this evening with lower pressure inland through Tuesday.
A cold front extending to the south of this low will move across NE Montana in the late morning and early afternoon. Gusty west winds will develop this morning that will turn NW behind the cold front today. Temperatures will only be slightly cooler today with highs in the 90s. High pressure moves in tonight with diminishing winds.
The dry and hot conditions will persist with the upper level ridge overhead.
Upper level ridging is building into the region and a front extends across much of central and eastern Nebraska. Tuesday, the upper ridge continues to build and another surface disturbance will move through, albeit a weaker one. Wednesday, high temperatures will be in the low 90s as the upper ridge flattens out some over the area and the area sees northeast winds along another front rotating into the area Wednesday.
201 AM EDT Tue Aug 2 2022 The Carolina Piedmont trough, hot temperatures, and isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be the main weather features through the mid-week period. Lows tonight in the lower to mid 70s with a very light SW wind. A broad mid/upper level trough will traverse the region on Tuesday. Drier air will spread into the area within the developing NWLY flow aloft will push the high +2. Aloft, weak west/northwesterly flow will continue Wednesday morning before transitioning to southerly flow Wednesday afternoon as a mid- level ridge builds back across the Atlantic. At the surface, weak high pressure will transit our area on Wednesday promoting subsidence.
(Tonight through Tuesday Night) The evening convection over N LA and SCntrl AR has finally begun to wind down in response to decreasing instability, although isolated convection continues along Nwd propagating within the higher instability air. Otherwise, AC cigs have begun to expand back W across SW AR and portions of extreme NE TX and NW LA, which should continue to fill E with the thinning convective debris along a weak upper trough axis that still lingers over these areas. Isolated to widely scattered convection will again be possible during the afternoon across from the Lower Toledo Bend Country NE across NCntrl and NE LA, possibly affecting the MLU terminal for the mid and late afternoon hours.
(Tonight through Tuesday Night) The evening convection over N LA and SCntrl AR has finally begun to wind down in response to decreasing instability, although isolated convection continues along Nwd propagating within the higher instability air. Otherwise, AC cigs have begun to expand back W across SW AR and portions of extreme NE TX and NW LA, which should continue to fill E with the thinning convective debris along a weak upper trough axis that still lingers over these areas.
High pressure over the Desert Southwest will expand eastward during the short term period resulting in subsidence and soaring temperatures across Texas. With mostly sunny skies, temperatures today will range from the low 90s to around 108 out west.
Warmer temperatures and fewer thunderstorms are expected through mid week with increasing storm coverage for the latter have of the week. High pressure will shift to the west over the next day or two before starting to shift back to the east after mid week. While the high is shifted to the west, we will see less storm activity and warming temperatures. As the high shifts back to the east, storm coverage will increase across the region. Isolated thunderstorms are expected Tuesday across the high country with an increase in activity for Wednesday.
It will be another muggy night with lows generally in the lower 70s. Weak flow aloft associated with slight mid-level ridging will provide us with a mainly dry day. With dew points in the mid 70s and highs expected in the low 90s, we could see heat indices near to around 100.
Tuesday will show a higher chance for precipitation as the high pressure influence decreases throughout the forecast area. Day time highs on Tuesday will be in the lower 90s, with rain and showers offering brief cool downs as they move through. Otherwise, expect highs generally in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows generally in the mid 70s.
High pressure in the middle layers of the atmosphere is becoming more in control of the region, and as a result, VFR is forecast at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. /issued 245 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): Mid level ridging will begin to build overhead in the short term as the inverted trough that helped to increase rain chances both yesterday and earlier today pushes further west. Subsidence from this ridge will hinder convective development tonight through tomorrow and help temperatures to reach near normal for the rest of the short term.
Above-normal temperatures will prevail again today as the upper-level ridging pattern strengthens across the southern High Plains and central/southern Rockies.
18z data has the cold front running from upper lower Michigan southwest across Illinois and into northern Missouri. Even through storms will be moving quickly, locally heavy rainfall is possible due to the high moisture levels in the atmosphere. Skies will clear and both temperatures and humidity levels will be on the increase as brisk south winds push a warm front into the area. If the nocturnal storms exit the area sooner than expected then temperatures 'may' be warmer than forecast.
129 AM EDT Tue Aug 2 2022 A cold front will cross the region this morning and may spark a few showers as it passes. Warm and dry weather is expected Wednesday under high pressure. Scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm remain a risk overnight as the pre-frontal trough crosses the area. The high is expected to track E of the area Wednesday, with continued dry but warmer weather as wind shifts to the S.
1122 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022 Upper ridging will overall continue to build over the region through tomorrow before being influenced by a progressive northern Plains/southern Saskatchewan trough late Tuesday into Wednesday. As the northern Plains/southern Saskatchewan trough continues east, its trailing cool front will bisect central KS by Wednesday evening. Late week, upper ridging will quickly return, building nearly overhead.
Temperatures will warm into the mid- and upper 80s north of Interstate 94 and into the lower and mid-90s for the remainder of the area. The trend of having the cold front move across the area quicker still looks to be on track. A positive tilt trough is expected to move across southern Canada with the most equatorward embedded short wave trough to track across the northern sections of the Upper Midwest.
Having some scattered storms this afternoon seems reasonable given how moist the air mass is and the fact that we should be warmer today vs yesterday. Probably will be mostly focused on the higher terrain as typical for summertime. Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 72 92 73 90 / 40 20 40 10 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 70 92 72 90 / 30 10 30 10 60 Oak Ridge, TN 87 70 91 71 90 / 40 10 30 10 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 67 90 68 89 / 20 10 20 10 60.
1021 AM EDT Tue Aug 2 2022 High pressure will build over the East Coast through midweek.
Slowed as it encounters the wrn periphery of a strong and persistent mid-latitude ridge over the w-cntl N. Atlantic, a positive-tilt, synoptic trough stretching from the nrn Mid-Atlantic to the lwr MS Valley will edge east of the Appalachians this morning and into VA/NC this afternoon and evening. At the surface, a broad trough stretching across the Piedmont of the srn Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas is forecast to sharpen today and drift east across cntl NC during the afternoon and overnight, with following light nly flow likely throughout cntl NC by 12Z Wed. As such, generally persistence temperatures are expected today, except slightly hotter over the srn/wrn Piedmont, owing to a slightly drier and more-deeply mixed boundary layer behind the surface/Piedmont trough. High pressure will dominate with only a 20-30 percent chance of an afternoon or early evening thunderstorm, mainly in the SE Coastal Plain.
By Wednesday and Wednesday night, high pressure is expected to remain over northern Arizona, with the best chances for convective activity forecast inc central Nevada, with maybe isolated coverage further north along I-80.
The center of this high will migrate west over east-central AZ by this afternoon keeping the area in east to southeast flow aloft.
/issued 320 AM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022/ The subtropical ridge remains anchored over the Four Corners this morning, extending east-southeast across the northern Gulf of Mexico and immediate Gulf Coast areas. A trough is moving through the Upper OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic states with only a modest jet downstream of the trough axis. Temperatures will warm into the low/mid 90s across the Mid-South with afternoon dewpoints generally in the mid 70s.
Models have the upper ridge to flatten a bit this afternoon/evening as a weak upper trough pushes eastward to our north. That thing allows for a weak cold front to push southward across the plains late this afternoon and evening. Wednesday will be a bit cooler behind the weak front, but not enough to keep temperatures from flirting with 90 degrees.
A cold front propagates sewd across the OH Valley this morning, behind it dropping dew points and clearing sky. High pressure will keep the area quiet mid- late week.
725 AM EDT Tue Aug 2 2022 High pressure over the western Atlantic will hold over the Florida peninsula today with a weak gradient and light boundary layer flow.
Otherwise, a persistent cutoff low pressure system offshore will wander away and westward allowing upper ridging over the SW US to re-establish over the area through the rest of the week. The bulk of the moisture appears to get absorbed into the cut-off low.
533 AM MDT Tue Aug 2 2022 Most recent upper level analysis shows the upper ridge over the rockies, with northwest flow aloft. Upper ridge axis will slide over our region this morning and afternoon, Bringing hot conditions into the region. High pressure settles in by Wednesday, as upper ridge continues to translate through the northern plains.
The synoptic pattern remains dominated by a high pressure ridge centered over the Four Corners region and an upper low spinning offshore northern California. Little changes are expected over the central California interior for the next several days as monsoonal moisture will continue to be funneled up from the south due to clockwise flow around the Four Corners high and counterclockwise flow around the offshore upper low.
Current temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s, with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Our sensible weather will continue to be dominated by the now weakening Atlantic ridge and the mid level dry air. From synopsis, A ridge of high pressure across the North Atlantic will slowly slide southward through mid-week, resulting in slackening east to southeasterly breezes. The ridge will strengthen late in the week, and the axis will drift back northward.
647 AM EDT Tue Aug 2 2022 High pressure will build over the East Coast through midweek.
306 AM MDT Tue Aug 2 2022 Most recent upper level analysis shows the upper ridge over the rockies, with northwest flow aloft. Upper ridge axis will slide over our region this morning and afternoon, Bringing hot conditions into the region. High pressure settles in by Wednesday, as upper ridge continues to translate through the northern plains.
Some channelling vorticity topping the ridge is redeveloping convection just to our north, but the CAM modeling suggests it will mostly stay north, then dissipate as it nears us toward daybreak. Due to the high instability, pulse strong to potentially severe storms with isolated damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out. A brief lull in overall convection is expected Wednesday with the ridge at peak strength, to be followed by another uptick in chances beginning Wednesday night and continuing through the remainder of the period as the ridge shifts east and some upper level energy drops down a cold front approaching from the north.
Today Through Wednesday Night Upper level ridging is positioned across the Southwestern region of the CONUS w/ northwesterly flow aloft over Arkansas. On Wednesday, the upper level ridge across the Southwestern region of the CONUS begins to elongate encompassing a greater area in which the eastern periphery of the ridge will be placed just to the west of the CWA across Oklahoma and Texas. At the end of the short-term forecast period, a weak cold front will be approaching the CWA from the northwest, thus Wednesday night will see elevated rain chances across far northern Arkansas.
350 AM MDT Tue Aug 2 2022 A dry, windy cold front will move across the Northern Rockies today. There will be a few showers and weak thunderstorms that develop ahead of the cold front, however there are low expectations for beneficial rainfall. Temperatures this afternoon will be 10-20 degrees cooler than recent days, snapping what has been a particularly historic heatwave.
Based on current observations, the subtropical ridge axis is situated right over the Treasure Coast, indicating that sea breeze development will begin at the Treasure Coast first and will form north along the rest of the coast later. Another hot day for the area, with temperatures climbing into the low 90s along the coast and the mid 90s over the interior.
210 PM EDT Tue Aug 2 2022 Dry tonight and Wednesday with high pressure, but warm and muggy conditions. Much drier today across the area with high pressure building into the region. Tonight, with high pressure continuing to build in, and clearing/calm conditions taking hold, expecting widespread fog to form. It will be even warmer and more humid on Wednesday, with frontal boundary lifting north across the area. Heat advisory criteria is looking possible across parts of the lowlands.
238 PM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022 Rain chances will continue through the afternoon into the evening as weak mid-level troughing persists overnight into tomorrow. Overnight lows will range in the lower 70s, while highs on tomorrow will range in the upper 80s to lower 90s. /AJ/ Tomorrow night through Tuesday: Upper ridging over the Four Corners region will gradually shift east into the Central Plains by this weekend. A weakness between this ridge and a stout Bermuda high will initially be in place across the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Otherwise high pressure aloft will continue to suppress shower and thunderstorm development.
Another hot and dry day is occurring across the Northern Rockies today, however still a bit cooler than the daily high temperatures we've experienced the past few days.
458 PM EDT Tue Aug 2 2022 Dry tonight and Wednesday with high pressure, but warm and muggy conditions. A Heat Advisory has been issued for tomorrow from noon to 8PM across much of the lowlands due to progged heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s. Much drier today across the area with high pressure building into the region. Tonight, with high pressure continuing to build in, and clearing/calm conditions taking hold, expecting widespread fog to form. It will be even warmer and more humid on Wednesday, with frontal boundary lifting north across the area. Heat advisory criteria is looking possible across parts of the lowlands.