Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1201 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.
A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW INTO THE NORTHERN CWA WILL KEEP THE SUBTROPICAL JET LINGERING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
604 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE.
S/W RIDGING OVER THE REGION SHOULD BRING A MOSTLY DRY EARLY FORECAST TO THE REGION.
359 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
419 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015 OVERALL A FAIRLY QUIET MORNING ACROSS SE TX WITH VERY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE NW GULF COAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS FROM 00Z SUN SHOWS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER 500MB RIDGE OVER SE TX. NAM/GFS/ECMWF PROGS GOING FORWARD FOR THE WORK WEEK HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO DROP S OVER THE N GULF BY WED/THUR WITH THE RIDGE RETROGRADING BACK INTO MEXICO.
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE PAC NW WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAY AS UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS STAYS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE WRF DOES SHOW SOME VERY WEAK ENERGY ACROSS THIS REGION IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS. I DO NOT WANT TO ADVERTISE THUNDERSTORMS OR EVEN DECENT SHOWERS TODAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN AND SUCH WEAK TRIGGERS AVAILABLE. OTHERWISE THE LOW POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN LOOKS GOOD.
331 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015 UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION THE LAST FEW DAYS GETS BEATEN DOWN SOME TODAY AS UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL BE LESS OF A CHANCE FOR RAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHEN MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY OVER THE REGION.
348 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2015 Upper ridge continues to be dominate wx feature for W TX and SE NM. Elsewhere an upper low currently over S NV will shear apart with some energy retrograding back to the west and a new low forming off the coast of California. Eventually this low moves east and may be strong enough to displace the ridge back to the SW. With the upper ridge over the area will continue to have little change in the day to day wx pattern for a few more days. Even with high pressure aloft. However models continue to develop decent amounts of precipitation over the higher elevations so will leave afternoon/evening pops in for the west the next couple of days. Models pull Blanca around the west side of the ridge and up through the Gulf of California.
THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHEARS OUT.
THE GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHEAR OUT THROUGH TONIGHT AS A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ADVANCES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN KEEPING THINGS WARM AND GENERALLY DRY LATELY. THIS TROUGH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
RETROGRADING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY. DID INTRODUCE VCSH FOR LFT AND ARA FOR THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE TRENDS UPWARD. /ISSUED 340 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TODAY KEEPING CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TO A MINIMUM. GUIDANCE HAS THE RIDGE CONTINUING TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND EVENTUALLY REPLACED BY A TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY REGION. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN U. AND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL STRENGTHEN. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS CALM FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
AN EVEN WARMER DAY IS POSSIBLE LATER INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES/TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ADDITIONALLY A BLOCKING MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TX WL EXERT INFLUENCE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE GULF. PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD IN THOUGH OVERALL THE PENINSULA WILL REMAIN IN A FAIRLY NON-DESCRIPT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL NOSE IN TO THE NORTH VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. OVERALL DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTED IN AS FLOW TAPS INTO AIR UNDERNEATH RIDGE.
356 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015 UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES TODAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WHILE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION TODAY. THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FAIR WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTROLS OUR WEATHER. SUGGEST MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MIDDLE 80S TODAY. A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY WILL PUSH THE RIDGE FURTHER TO OUR EAST. THE GFS/ECMWF GENERALLY AGREE THAT A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
MOSTLY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND SIERRA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH MANY DESERT LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
120 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH IN ITS WAKE SUNDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE IN THE LOWER 70S. THE LACK OF ANY SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR THE HIGHEST POPS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY EACH DAY.
BASED ON THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN THIS LEVEL LATE DAY WILL TREND TOWARDS THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND SLIDE SOUTHWARD AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
313 AM PDT SUN JUN 7 2015 WARMING AND DRYING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AND OPEN TODAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE SIERRA ACTING AS AN ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE, CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGH SIERRA MAINLY IN MONO COUNTY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS.
A DRIER AIRMASS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
208 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
328 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST TODAY. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS THE MD/WV RIDGES.
ADDED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF ALOFT WITH CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVR THE DESERT SW. SFC SHOWS COLD FRONT THRU AND OFF TO THE SE INTO NERN CO. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY CAPPED. UPR TROF AXIS CONTINUES EWD.
THINK THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS PORTION OF THE FRONT. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES. THIS WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME SORT OF FORWARD PROPAGATING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) MOVING EAST OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. WITH UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS UNTIL LATE SUN AFTN WHEN SE-MOVG COLD FRONT ENCOUNTERS A MSTR-RICH ENVIRONMENT. THE SITUATION DETERIORATES CONSIDERABLY FROM 08/00Z ONWARD AS THE COLD FRONT DECELLERATES AS IT VENTURES FURTHER TOWARD SE KS.
931 PM PDT SAT JUN 6 2015 Temperatures this weekend will be much warmer than average with afternoon readings in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
545 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST TODAY. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS THE MD/WV RIDGES.
1008 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MONTANA TODAY BRINGING NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. WITH RIDGE STEERING INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEMS AROUND MONTANA.
1215 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.
227 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERNIGHT.
THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WAS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN SHERIDAN COUNTY WHERE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERED.
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION TODAY. THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FAIR WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTROLS OUR WEATHER. SUGGEST MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MIDDLE 80S TODAY. A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY WILL PUSH THE RIDGE FURTHER TO OUR EAST.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER OREGON ON MONDAY BRINGING THE HOTTEST WEATHER OF THE CURRENT WARM SPELL.
AN UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN SEA BOARD AND ACROSS THE STATE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN FOR MONDAY. WEAK PRESSURES IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A TROUGH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE STATE TODAY WILL SHIFT EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE THROUGH MONDAY.
258 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015 LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE PULLING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z LEAVING NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE MID LAYERS DUE TO COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
409 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015 COUPLE ACTIVE DAYS/EVENINGS ON TAP AS H7 THETA-E RIDGE WHICH HAS HELP SPARK CONVECTION IN NM AND FAR WRN PANHANDLE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND INTERACTS WITH A COLD FRONT MVG INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. CONVECTION WILL BE AIDED BY FLATTENING OF THE MID-UPR LEVEL RIDGE AS S/WVS MOVE AROUND A WEAKENING LOW WHICH WILL OPEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS AND HIGHER SHEAR VALUES ASSOC WITH WEAK JET STREAK.
WV imagery shows the SoCal trough has moved a little NE over the past 24 hours, nudging the upper ridge toward the Great Lakes/MS valley region, leaving West Texas and Southeast new Mexico under SW flow aloft. During this time, the SoCal trough remains forecast to move NE and shear out over the Rockies, allowing the ridge to backbuild west to Chihuahua, diminishing convective chances for a couple of days.
239 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH A LONG WAVE TROF BARRELS ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL BREAK OUT AND AS THE FRONT NEARS THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROF WILL USHER THE FRONT ON TO PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT.
135 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY.
A RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ESSENTIALLY THE SAME WEATHER THROUGH 00Z TOMORROW EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF -TSRA IN FAR NW OK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES SHOULD GENERATE A MCS IN SOUTHEAST CO OR KANSAS WHICH WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF ARRIVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA EARLY MONDAY.
SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THIS STUFF COULD MAINTAIN A DECENT BOW-LIKE STRUCTURE AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH A STRONG MOISTURE FLUX AND DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR PUSHING 40KTS. THIS IS WHEN A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON RIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH.
424 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015 UPPER RIDGING TO HOLD FIRM OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS THRU TODAY. WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STILL TRYING TO ENTER AR. AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTH. PEAKING BY MID WEEK WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS ACROSS AT LEAST NORTH LA PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER AREA BY THEN. AS THIS LOW SHIFTS EAST. AS THIS LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY TOWARDS THE GULF. PUTTING AN END TO THE UNSEASONALLY HOT TEMPS SEEN PAST FEW DAYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LVL RIDGING.
While the bulk of this activity, as well as the main risk for severe weather, will be pushed east based on the upper level flow, a southward advancing cold front, which is very likely enhanced by a developing/organizing cold pool will aid in new cells developing progressively south late tonight. However, this cluster of storms will force a cold front into the area tomorrow.
313 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015 FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE GOING INTO THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH. LOWS GENERALLY MILD IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. WARMER. THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
1030 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH IN ITS WAKE SUNDAY.
636 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY.
INCREASED CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THIS WEEKEND. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE EXPECTED ELONGATION OF THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA. AS THIS ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD IT WILL CAUSE A WEAKENING OF OUR PESKY UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE RIDGE AS THE RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES WESTWARD.
321 AM PDT SUN JUN 7 2015 WARMING AND DRYING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AND OPEN TODAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE SIERRA ACTING AS AN ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE, CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGH SIERRA MAINLY IN MONO COUNTY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS.
EXPECT LESS STORMS TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.
1118 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE CHILLY READINGS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CRESTS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY.
900 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015 UPPER TROF SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD. WITH COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO WESTERN NEB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS FLATTENING RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. WITH UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF AND WEAKENING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS TO THE LOWER 80S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
642 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY PCPN IN TAFS ON SUNDAY DUE TO WEAK RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND SLIDE SOUTHWARD AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
THIS PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY BE QUIET AS MEAN DEEP LAYER DRY AIR WILL STILL HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON REDUCING PRECIP POTENTIAL IN CONJUNCTION WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT CONTINUES TO HOLD FIRM. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO SAT WITH A FEW PLACES BEING A BIT WARMER DUE TO LESS CLOUDS. WE WILL SEE THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN SOME AS A DECENT S/WV MOVES THROUGH THE MID SOUTH AND HELPS LOWER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS.
DEESE WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA ON MONDAY.
/ISSUED 403 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015/ CUT OFF CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND UPPER RIDGE OVER EAST CENTRAL TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL TROF OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. POPS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY.
THERE ARE NO CONCERNS UNTIL LATE SUN AFTN WHEN SE-MOVG COLD FRONT ENCOUNTERS A MSTR-RICH ENVIRONMENT. THE SITUATION DETERIORATES CONSIDERABLY FROM 08/00Z ONWARD AS THE COLD FRONT DECELLERATES AS IT VENTURES FURTHER TOWARD SE KS.
345 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2015 (Today and Tonight) The upper ridge over Texas remains in place with little change in our weather through tonight. There will be some slight warming and drying of the airmass as the 850mb thermal ridge over West Texas edges more to the east. Highs today will be around 90 to the lower 90s with upper 60s to around 70 for lows tomorrow morning. For the next few days, ridge of high pressure will remain parked across Texas.
1023 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1022 MILLIBARS) CENTERED NEAR LAKE ONTARIO. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS PRESSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES THIS EVENING WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TO A POSITION OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY DIRECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SINKS SOUTHWARD TO A POSITION OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT. MEAN TROUGH AXES ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE BOTH IN THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CONUSES WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN US. THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS HAS DISSIPATED LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN ITS WAKE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S ACROSS NORTH MS TO MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS TENNESSEE. HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AREA-WIDE CAN BE EXPECTED. A SYNOPTIC-SCALE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE FORCED SOUTH. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE LOW TO MID-90S ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.
AN UPPER RIDGE NOSES SEWRD OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE ROLLS ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO ON MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES RESPOND BY WARMING 3-5 DEGREES FROM TODAY.
WITH THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH SWINGING EASTWARD AND WEAKENING.
1030 AM PST MON NOV 16 2015 A COLD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING A COOL AND BREEZY WEATHER PATTERN TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
353 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
1256 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING ONE MORE QUIET DAY WITH VERY MILD TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
429 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY.
229 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015 A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
1121 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1000 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015/ THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS SHIFTED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THINGS DRY ACROSS THE AREA AND THE ONLY IMPACT WE WILL SEE FROM THESE DISTURBANCES IS THE HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING FROM THE WEST.
JUST THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK RIDGE AXIS TO OUR EAST AND SOME WEAK PVA. UPPER LEVEL LOW RESIDES OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY TEND TO DELAY THE BETTER DYNAMICS FROM REACHING OUR AREA UNTIL LATE TUES NT AND INTO WED MORNING. THE LOW RISK OF TSTMS. SHOWERS WILL END BY WED EVENING AS COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL AIR MOVES IN.
312 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015 An upper level low is currently located across the southwestern U. The upper level low will slowly spread east toward the region tonight and Tuesday, then through the area Tuesday night. Height falls and a warmer more moisture air mass advecting north will allow instability to increase some across eastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri ahead of this line by early Tuesday morning. Given strong wind shear in the low levels, a limited brief isolated tornado risk will also occur with any line segments that can surge to the northeast.
235 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015 WV IMAGERY THIS AFTN SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROF CUTTING DOWN THE ROCKIES WITH A DEEP CLOSED OFF LOW SPINNING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. MODELS PROG THE CLOSED LOW TO RAPIDLY MIGRATE EWD TONIGHT AND REACH THE CNTRL PLAINS SHORTLY BEFORE 18Z TUES WITH INTENSE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT PRECEDING THIS SYSTEM. IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE AND BROAD UPPER TROF ENVELOPING THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN NWLY FLOW WILL PASS THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LATEST MODELS HAVE SHIFT PCPN WITH THE WARM FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH.
341 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015 MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
426 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. PERHAPS LIMITING OUR RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT. WILL STILL GO WITH A MODEST RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IN THE EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SOME GUSTY WINDS ON THE RIDGE TOPS IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
255 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LEAD TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND INITIALLY DISCRETE CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD SUSTAIN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SQUALL LINE INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 4-8 AM TUE MORNING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP WEST OF I-35 TO THE RIO GRANDE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE TUE AFTERNOON.
Then a transition to cooler temperatures, with more rain and snow showers is anticipated for late in the week. Update: The high wind watches for Tuesday have been upgraded to warnings. JW 18Z TAFS: The next Pacific storm will spread thickening high clouds across the region this afternoon followed by a warm front developing this evening from KEAT to KPDT and moving slowly north overnight.
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND PRECIP MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
1101 AM EST MON NOV 16 2015 LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE WEAK SUBSIDENCE SETTING UP WE SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS/ALTOCUMULUS SPREADING WESTWARD UNDER THE INVERSION WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
WARMER TONIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
245 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. PERHAPS LIMITING OUR RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT. WILL STILL GO WITH A MODEST RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IN THE EAST. THIS WILL YIELD SOME GUSTY WINDS ON THE RIDGE TOPS IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.