Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(This evening through Saturday) The upper ridge currently over northern Mexico will be further suppressed tonight through Saturday as a series of short waves move across the western and central CONUS. Because of this, we will see surface lee cyclogenesis and pressure troughing from eastern Colorado through eastern New Mexico shifting east during the day. The pressure trough will enhance low level convergence especially from the South Plains through the central Texas Panhandle.
Then the focus turns toward late Saturday night when the HREF is showing an upper trough approaching the area from the west. Lows Saturday night will be slightly warmer with winds out of the south and more clouds.
(This evening through Saturday) Temperatures will peak in the 90s this afternoon as an upper level ridge passes over.
Broad troughiness over the eastern US will lead to scattered afternoon and evening showers with a few thunderstorms possible. General troughiness over the eastern half of the U. With the Bermuda high well off to our east and continued general troughiness aloft, each afternoon/overnight period will present an opportunity for at least a few folks to see a shower or thunderstorms.
335 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022 (Issued 331 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022) Tonight through Saturday night: High pressure will sink southeast this evening promoting quiet dry conditions.
Lows tonight are expected to be a touch warmer areawide in the low 70s with light winds generally shifting to the south overnight. The upper high that has had an influence on our pattern will weaken tonight and be pushed south into Mexico as a trough axis begins to sink south out of the central plains and into the Texas Panhandle by sunrise tomorrow. With the trough axis over this area by the afternoon, this may also help provide some lift for initiation.
123 PM MDT Fri Aug 26 2022 Slow moving upper low has made its way into southern Alberta early this afternoon. Rotation around the low was swinging in some slightly drier air aloft over western into central Montana. The upper low moves into southern Saskatchewan early Saturday and this sweeps the deep monsoon moisture into the Dakotas as the flow becomes zonal. Downslope flow increase and with deeper mixing of drier air aloft, dewpoint temperatures should tumble into the lower 40s. A deep upper low will drop into north central Montana Saturday afternoon, sending energy into the forecast area.
Flow ahead of this wave is a bit unfocused with a broad southerly flow in the lower levels.
1226 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022 (Today through Saturday afternoon) The upper ridge centered along the AZ/Mexican border this morning stretches along the southern tier of states from the Pacific to the Atlantic. A trough moving over the Northern Rockies will pass onto the plains Saturday and keep the ridge from becoming too strong over the region. Temps today should be similar to yesterday in the upper 80s to lower 90s, Saturday a couple degrees warmer.
1126 AM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022 Marine Latest surface analysis shows a cold front extending from near Detroit southwest to Coldwater. Bufkit RH progs show drier air advecting into the CWA today and we'll see a return to sunshine by the afternoon as high pressure noses in from the west behind the cold front.
As the upper level wave lifts into Canada, a trailing cold front will still be stretching southwestward across the far east.
The longwave trough situated near the Great Lakes region finally begins to shift eastward as weak upper ridging begins to build over the south central US. At the surface, the frontal boundary stretched across the Southeast US continues to wash out as the low over the ArkLaTex region broadens out and weakens. With this occurring, some weak surface ridging from the Western Atlantic will attempt to build into the Southeast US. Coverage should not be as widespread as previous days, thanks to the ridge building overhead, however, with abundant moisture still in place, maintained elevated PoPs of around 50-70 percent during the afternoon. Lows tonight will be in the low 70s, with mid to upper 70s along the coast.
149 PM PDT Fri Aug 26 2022 A drier and cooler trend is expected this weekend.
Overnight lows will generally be in the middle to upper 60s except a bit warmer along the river and over metro concrete locations. A few degrees warmer than today.
GC Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 90 72 89 72 / 30 30 10 40 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 90 70 91 70 / 30 30 10 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 68 89 70 91 70 / 20 20 0 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 88 65 89 67 / 30 30 10 30 10.
On Sat, a cold front will add to the mix of weather, with the strongest wind seen in quite a while, after two monsoonal push events.
1242 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chances return today with a crossing cold front. Dry weather is expected to return for the weekend under high pressure.
258 PM MDT Fri Aug 26 2022 Numerous showers and some storms have developed over the higher terrain this afternoon now spreading eastward onto portions of the plains. High coverage showers continue over the high country this afternoon. Instability will be limited, but enough to support isolated to scattered showers and storms in the afternoon over the higher terrain. Warming in the temperatures aloft will bump up highs a degree or two with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s across the lower elevations, 60s to 70s for the mountain valleys/foothills, and 50s to 60s for the mountains.
High pressure was located over Wisconsin this afternoon with low pressure across south-central South Dakota. The upper trough will have shifted into western Ontario by this time, so lack of a trigger may keep storms from forming in this area of instability. Large hail and damaging winds look to be the primary hazard in any storms that can get organized, but an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out as well given looping hodographs in the low levels and SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2.
349 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022 A cold front will depart to the southeast tonight while high pressure builds into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
232 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022 A weak upper low will continue to drift off to the east northeast and eventually up the Red River Valley through the rest of today, bringing with it light to moderate rain over our far south central and southern James River Valley. Low temperatures tonight will be a touch warmer than last night, mainly in the mid to upper 50s. On Saturday, the trough moves out to the east and quasi-zonal flow will setup across the area most of the day. Later in the afternoon, some low amplitude ridging will move into the west. This pattern will mean a mostly sunny sky through the afternoon and much warmer temperatures with highs back into the lower 80s to lower 90s.
This clouds were associated with easterly flow bringing cooler air to the area overnight. H85 WAA will lead to warmer temps across the region tomorrow with dewpoints in the 60s. This means that even with highs in the 80s, Tds across the east may drop into the low 60s tomorrow leading to pleasant Saturday.
119 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chances return today with a crossing cold front. Dry weather is expected to return for the weekend under high pressure.
148 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022 Aviation Latest surface analysis shows a cold front extending from near Detroit southwest to Coldwater. Bufkit RH progs show drier air advecting into the CWA today and we'll see a return to sunshine by the afternoon as high pressure noses in from the west behind the cold front.
Temperatures will warm up Saturday, out ahead of another trough, with highs in the 80s.
Ridging builds aloft Saturday, so probably a less convectively active day overall, though warmer. Daily scattered chances for showers/storms with better rain chances midweek as a cold front approaches.
Tonight, southerly low level flow will be in place and it should be a bit warmer than last night - with lows in the mid 60s to around 70.
(Through Saturday) Weak high pressure will be over the region this period.
(This evening through Saturday) Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows an area of low pressure centered over cntl LA with a trailing frontal boundary swwd to the nwrn Gulf and a stationary boundary along the cntl Gulf Coast. Meanwhile high pressure continues to ridge over the nrn Gulf, maintaining a light srly flow ahead of the frontal boundary.
CAM guidance has shown consistent trends pushing storms along the trough's trajectory as the system slides southeast across the area. Then, subsidence in the wake of the trough will result in clearing conditions from northwest to the east- southeast. Therefore, do not anticipate much nocturnal convection tonight, as the trough is progged to move east of the Divide by midnight. Temperatures trend upward on Saturday, under the influence of ridging.
Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 70s with daytime highs in the upper 80s.
Saturday night will be dry again but a few degrees warmer, with low temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Cliff PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Today: An upper level Low will move across southern Saskatchewan, weakening to an open wave as it does so by this afternoon.
Moderate instability with 1000 J/kg of CAPE along with low level lapse rates of near 7 C/km and dewpoints in the low 60s will be able to support some stronger storms. Cloud cover and ongoing rain across north central and into south central Nebraska will keep temperatures tomorrow in the low to mid 80s. Elsewhere to the west, peeks of sunshine followed by clearing clouds by peak heating in the afternoon will still allow temperatures to rise easily into the low 90s. Overnight low temperatures remain near normal in the low to mid 60s for tonight and Saturday night.
1239 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022 (Through Tomorrow Night) 925-750mb trough/low over east Tx will move westward today. We'll be situated in a general weakness aloft - between some ridges to our ese & wsw.
333 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022 Low pressure moving east across the Maritimes overnight will bring a cold front across the Gulf of Maine.
Skies are mostly sunny across the Florida Keys, and the bountiful solar insolation allowed temperatures to top out in the lower 90s.
(This evening through Saturday Night) A milder than normal weekend is on the way for the Ark-La-Tex area as broad ridging to our west, and troughing to our northeast leaves diurnal-heating and instability as the main drivers of precipitation. That said, minimum temperatures will remain in the lower 70s as light easterly winds wane to become variable overnight. Slightly milder minimum temperatures are expected tomorrow night in the low to mid-70s with light southerly winds.
An active afternoon/early evening within southern Mohave County and the lower Colorado River.
655 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022 Dry weather is expected to return for the weekend under high pressure.
717 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022 (This evening through Saturday Night) A milder than normal weekend is on the way for the Ark-La-Tex area as broad ridging to our west, and troughing to our northeast leaves diurnal-heating and instability as the main drivers of precipitation. That said, minimum temperatures will remain in the lower 70s as light easterly winds wane to become variable overnight. Slightly milder minimum temperatures are expected tomorrow night in the low to mid-70s with light southerly winds.
959 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022 Dry weather is expected to return for the weekend under high pressure.
Reblended these temps into the overnight lows while keeping the lows steady. Cliff MORNING DISCUSSION: Today: An upper level Low will move across southern Saskatchewan, weakening to an open wave as it does so by this afternoon.
553 PM MDT Fri Aug 26 2022 Numerous showers and some storms have developed over the higher terrain this afternoon now spreading eastward onto portions of the plains. High coverage showers continue over the high country this afternoon. Instability will be limited, but enough to support isolated to scattered showers and storms in the afternoon over the higher terrain. Warming in the temperatures aloft will bump up highs a degree or two with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s across the lower elevations, 60s to 70s for the mountain valleys/foothills, and 50s to 60s for the mountains.
Showers and thunderstorms decrease in probability on Saturday as a ridge builds in. Ridging builds aloft Saturday, so probably a less convectively active day overall, though warmer. Daily scattered chances for showers/storms with better rain chances midweek as a cold front approaches.
718 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022 (This evening through Saturday) Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows an area of low pressure centered over cntl LA with a trailing frontal boundary swwd to the nwrn Gulf and a stationary boundary along the cntl Gulf Coast. Meanwhile high pressure continues to ridge over the nrn Gulf, maintaining a light srly flow ahead of the frontal boundary.
The main trend indicated by the latest guidance is more of a split in the upper trough passing through on Saturday, with the wind speeds not as strong as previously projected across northeast CA- western NV. We'll still have elevated breezes today and Saturday, but gusts more likely in the 25-35 mph range, with Sierra ridge gusts up to 50 mph. Another effect of this split trough will be a more modest cooling trend this weekend, with highs easing back into the lower 90s for most lower elevations/lower 80s for Sierra valleys.
711 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022 A cold front will depart to the southeast tonight while high pressure builds into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
603 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022 (This evening through Saturday) The upper ridge currently over northern Mexico will be further suppressed tonight through Saturday as a series of short waves move across the western and central CONUS. Because of this, we will see surface lee cyclogenesis and pressure troughing from eastern Colorado through eastern New Mexico shifting east during the day. The pressure trough will enhance low level convergence especially from the South Plains through the central Texas Panhandle.
A drier and cooler trend is expected this weekend.
Air temperatures are around 80 degrees this evening with a light easterly wind if any and dew points in the low to mid 70s. Overnight lows are on track to the lower and a few mid 70s.
603 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022 (This evening through Saturday) Temperatures will peak in the 90s this afternoon as an upper level ridge passes over.
Tomorrow looks pretty quiet with high pressure still largely in control of our sensible weather. A lake breeze will hold lakeside temperatures in the mid 70s, with inland temperatures warming back through the low to mid 80s. Carlaw A broad mid-level trough stretching along the northern CONUS will pick up a convectively enhanced mid-level wave lifting out of the central High Plains on Saturday.
A wave of low pressure will advance through the area on Saturday, which has trended further north than past model runs. While cooler temperatures are still anticipated as a result of this system, shower and thunderstorm activity is now generally confined to the central Idaho mountains. A dry cold front will cross the region Saturday, causing surface winds to increase to W-NW 15-25 kts. A slight chance of thunderstorms over the west central ID mountains Sat afternoon behind the cold front.
(Tonight) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this evening as high pressure at the surface promotes a mostly clear sky and light winds.
Saturday night will be dry again but a few degrees warmer, with low temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. On Sunday, a mid-level trough will dip into the northern Great Plains, and the forecast area will see SW mid-level flow begin and increase in intensity. At the surface, the frontal boundary will retreat to the north in response to increasing warm advection into the Lower Ohio Valley. High temperatures Sunday will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s, but dew point temperatures will climb into the lower to middle 70s. Small PoPs will linger into Sunday night with overnight low temperatures in the lower 70s.
While the activity will largely end for the overnight hours tonight, the convection will become generally more scattered in coverage for Sunday due to the approach of closed 500 mb low pressure from the east.
Then the focus turns toward late Saturday night when the HREF is showing an upper trough approaching the area from the west. Lows Saturday night will be slightly warmer with winds out of the south and more clouds. Britt There continues to be good agreement on Sunday between the GFS/ECMWF/CMC with a upper trough shearing out as it moves across the Midwest.
Some of the CAMs really take off in UH tracks later tonight as the low level jet gets going. As the upper level wave lifts into Canada, a trailing cold front will still be stretching southwestward across the far east.
(Today through Sunday Night) Expect a fairly typical summertime Saturday today as a weak upper level ridge builds over the area. The exception to the high temperatures would be where temperatures get cooled due to the scattered showers and storms. Temperatures tonight will be in the mid to upper 70s for most of the area and into the low 80s along the coast.
Temps will be near normal under light southerly low level flow, with dewpoints creeping back up into at least the low 60s.
Behind a passing cold front, things turn drier and cooler for this weekend as temperatures become more seasonable.
These are in association with the expected forcing for ascent ahead of the incoming trough axis, centered over eastern Colorado at midnight. The trough axis rather slowly crosses SW KS daylight Saturday, with a midlevel cloud deck expected to prevail. Instability and shear will be highest across the southeast half of the CWA, with CAPE to near 2000 J/kg and increased westerly momentum in the midlevels associated with the trough's passage. Subsidence behind the departing trough axis will clear the sky quickly Saturday evening.
Rainfall has been intermittently heavy through the overnight period along and just ahead of a warm front. Warmer air, along with additional moisture, will continue working into the area today. Any storms that develop today will favor west-central Minnesota, where a trough axis remains in place. This will provide an axis of development along the associated cold front expected to traverse the area during the afternoon and evening. Another round of strong to severe storms will be possible, with the highest chances remaining east of the Red River.
(Today through Sunday afternoon) The upper ridge today will extend from the Atlantic westward across TX and NM to CA as a trough moves across the Central Plains. On Sunday another trough will pass across the Northern Plains but the ridge will remained centered over Nrn Mexico. Temperatures will be warmer today into the mid 90s and then a degree or two warmer on Sunday.
This clouds were associated with easterly flow bringing cooler air to the area overnight. H85 WAA will lead to warmer temps across the region tomorrow with dewpoints in the 60s. This means that even with highs in the 80s, Tds across the east may drop into the low 60s tomorrow leading to pleasant Saturday. That said, always pause when sfc warm front is in the area. Will need to keep an eye on CAMs, in respect to sfc warm front and any CAPE/deep shear space that may develop. The wave for Sunday will drive a cold front through the area that stalls south of the area.
The low-level subsidence layer has kept the weather calm early. The shower activity could spread in the nearshore and offshore waters and reach the Lower and Middle Keys portions.
That push of warmer 700mb air continues east overnight.
1017 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022 (Tonight) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this evening as high pressure at the surface promotes a mostly clear sky and light winds.
A system will slide out of Canada this afternoon with an associated cold front. The cold front is not very remarkable, other than it will lower temperatures to climatic normals or possibly a degree or two cooler.
Tonight, skies should clear rapidly around sunset with lows reaching upper 50s to lower 60s most areas in a drying air mass behind last night's cold front. A warm front is expected to lift northward across central IL Sunday, driven by the circulation around low pressure moving eastward through southern Canada and the northern Plains.
320 AM EDT Sat Aug 27 2022 Discussion/Marine A dome of high pressure has settled over the Great Lakes and is producing mostly clear skies. Humidity will increase Sunday as the high drifts east and south flow strengthens.
Otherwise, weak flow aloft, dry air in the mid levels of the atmosphere and a moist, decoupled boundary layer will result in a mostly clear, calm and humid night with lows in the lower and middle 70s. Saturday will be seasonably hot and humid with highs in the lower and middle 90s.
123 AM EDT Sat Aug 27 2022 Aviation -- Dry weather through Sunday morning -- High pressure working through the Great Lakes region will bring dry weather tonight, Saturday, Saturday night and into Sunday.
1104 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022 (This evening through Saturday) Temperatures will peak in the 90s this afternoon as an upper level ridge passes over.
Tonight, southerly low level flow will be in place and it should be a bit warmer than last night - with lows in the mid 60s to around 70. The main mid level trough axis shifts off to the east by daybreak Sunday.
Upper level troughing over the eastern CONUS gradually ejects to the northeast during the near term period. Upper level ridging over the western Atlantic noses southwest deeper into the southeastern U. Lows tonight and Saturday night will be in the low 70s, with mid to upper 70s along the coast.
1224 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2022 (This evening through Saturday) The upper ridge currently over northern Mexico will be further suppressed tonight through Saturday as a series of short waves move across the western and central CONUS. Because of this, we will see surface lee cyclogenesis and pressure troughing from eastern Colorado through eastern New Mexico shifting east during the day. The pressure trough will enhance low level convergence especially from the South Plains through the central Texas Panhandle.
Rain/storm coverage looks to be considerably less today than yesterday which will likely allow temperatures to get a few degrees warmer than yesterday, too. Sunday should be similar, with only isolated to widely scattered rain chances and temperatures running into the low 90s.
Have KTRI with the lowest ceilings/vis due to rainfall from yesterday, and MVFR conditions at KTYS/KCHA, but am less confident at these airports. Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 72 91 73 90 / 20 10 30 10 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 70 92 71 91 / 20 0 20 10 40 Oak Ridge, TN 90 69 91 70 90 / 20 0 20 10 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 66 90 67 90 / 30 0 20 10 30.
221 AM MDT Sat Aug 27 2022 Today and Sunday: A fast moving upper level ridge will warm things up to start the day with upper 80s to lower 90s expected. However another upper level Low will drop down from British Columbia and track along the Canadian border by this afternoon bringing another cold front with it. During the overnight hours and into Sunday evening as the Low passes the area, the rest of the CWA will see precipitation chances as wrap around moisture moves through.
H500 flow will become more amplified on Sunday in response to a trough moving from the Central Plains toward the Great Lakes. Chances for precip will be a bit higher and temperatures may be a few degrees cooler.
Today Through Sunday Night An upper ridge continues over the middle of the country this morning with an upper trough over the Rockies. This ridge will move to the east today and the upper trough will move into the Plains this afternoon. By Sunday night, the trough will extend from the upper Midwest to the Southern Plains. Moisture will increase over the state on the back side of the high and rain chances will return to south Arkansas this afternoon.