Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A STRONG TROUGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE ONLY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INVOLVES THE DEVELOPMENT OF LEE-SIDE TROUGHING AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS AND BACKS.
A slight cooling over the weekend with a threat of afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain.
610 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015 EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS TODAY. /ISSUED 324 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015/ COLD FRONT APPROACHING I-40 WILL CONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
803 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
WE ARE STARTING TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS IN THE VICINITY OF LFK AND THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR. MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT. WHICH MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF SOME MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WAS LOCATED AS OF 14Z NEAR A JBR. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY ACROSS THE REGION BUT GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FOUR STATE REGION DURING THE DAY PROVIDING COOLER AND DRIER AIR.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY FOR VERY WARM WEATHER WITH A VERY LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN SATURDAY WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING AND WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY.
831 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. THE LOW WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT. THE LOW WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY.
GENERAL TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. TDA WILL BE BIT OF TRANSITION DAY AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS DOMINANT. BUT INCREASINGLY SHARP M/ULVL TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES DIGS INTO TN VLY. AS RIDGE WEAKENS. DEEP TROUGH OVER TN/OH VLYS BECOMES EVEN DEEPER AND CLOSES INTO H5 LOPRES.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE THEN FORECASTING A BREAK TO DEVELOP. A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM ABOUT JOPLIN MO TO ARDMORE OK TO CHILDRESS. DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY WORK INTO SE TX ON SATURDAY AND DEW PTS WILL LOWER INTO THE 50S NORTH OF I-10 DURING THE AFTN BUT REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
THIS MOIST AIR IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND BY THIS EVENING WILL BEGIN A SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE THROUGH SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A BROAD TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY WITH TWO AXES. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. DURING THIS PERIOD THE SECOND TROUGH AXIS WILL ROTATE DOWN THROUGH TEXAS.
1012 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 CORRECTED FOR AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING. A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE AREA UNDER ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW WAS POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND SLOWLY PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST. WHILE THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH INTO MINNESOTA BY TONIGHT. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER IN WESTERN WI UNDER THE MORE DENSE CLOUD COVER. WITH THE LOCALLY COOLER SPOTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S. IT WILL BE A COOL START ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
A MVFR STRATUS DECK IS FILLING-IN BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND WILL IMPACT KLVS AND KTCC THIS MORNING. A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH RAPIDLY INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS CENTERED WEST OF JAMES BAY WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING INTO SD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH JET ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL JET WILL NOSE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTENSIFY A SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/GREAT LAKE STATES TODAY THROUGH SAT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE SAT.
THIS MORNING'S UPDATE REVOLVES AROUND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL ACCOMPANY IT. AND DON'T FORGET ABOUT THE WRAP AROUND ACTIVITY SATURDAY DUE TO THIS SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DIVE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER SATURDAY MORNING. BUT ADDITIONAL CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION.
A cold front at the surface has pushed southward to around I-64 however convergence aloft due to the interaction of the above features is triggering numerous thunderstorms across central IL. Highs today will only reach the lower 70s given the cooler post frontal air mass which has moved in. Much cooler temperatures expected this weekend due to strong upper level trof/low pressure digging southward from the western great lakes into IL/IN and ohio river valley through Saturday.
1012 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA IS RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS FOR VALLEY AND SURROUNDING REGION. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS CENTERED WEST OF JAMES BAY WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING INTO SD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH JET ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL JET WILL NOSE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTENSIFY A SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/GREAT LAKE STATES TODAY THROUGH SAT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE SAT.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 351 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE TO CONTINUE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
245 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015 An ongoing area of heavy rainfall across the eastern portion of the forecast area this afternoon will continue to translate eastward as an upper low pulls away from the area.
302 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015 A DOMINANT UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS AND CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE MOVING EAST ALONG THE OKLAHOMA-KANSAS BORDER. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND IS GENERATING STRONG SURFACE WINDS IN GRAHAM. BRECKENRIDGE. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST WHICH IS GENERATING RIDGING INBETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA. MOMENTUM INCREASING OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LEESIDE TROF INTENSIFYING AND PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN KIDA AND KLWT ALREADY 20MB. WINDS SHOULD STAY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 10 TO 14Z. MODELS HINT AT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING BUT THESE WILL ONLY PRODUCE A BIT OF MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ACTUALLY BRING INCREASED PULSES OF WINDS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
134 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
418 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA. PRONOUNCED AND DEEP LL MERIDONAL FLW TRAJECTORIES HOLDING BTR MSTR/THETA-E WWD TWD THE MS VALLEY AS LL ANTICYCLONE STILL HOLDS FIRM ACRS THE ERN LAKES. DROPPED MOST POP MENTIONS TONIGHT IN REFLECTION OF RATHER COMPELLING SUBSIDENCE DVLPG DOWNSTREAM OF SHARP/SLOW SFC FNTL ZONE WORKING EWD ACRS IL AND WWD PLACEMENT OF LLJ/LL THETA-E RIDGE. AN UPPER LOW WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE WEDNESDAY.
THIS MAY WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH GUSTY RIDGETOP WINDS ARE LIKELY. THE LOW CENTER WILL BE OVER THE PANHANDLE REGION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT PROVIDED BY 20-30 KT WINDS AT RIDGE LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SNOWFALL OVER THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS PAST SUNRISE. THE OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTOR AS WEST WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH BUFFET THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A WARM FRONT. PRECIP WILL INCREASE ALONG A COLD FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. CONTINUING MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF INCOMING COLD FRONT. FAST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN NW TO SE BRINGING A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEGINNING AT KBNO-KBKE AFTER 06Z/WED. WARM FRONT BROUGHT LIGHT SNOW TO BURNS. WARM FRONTAL LIFT WILL KEEP SNOW GOING ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS TODAY. A FAST MOVING STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP NW TO SE FROM SEATTLE AND PORTLAND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NE OREGON ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND TO ALONG A FAIRFIELD-KUNA-BURNS JUNCTION ZONE AROUND 5 AM WEDNESDAY. HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPOSED RIDGES.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP DEEPEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT SPREADS FROM OKLAHOMA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS EVEN STRENGTHEN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS AND GUSTS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OKLAHOMA WAS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN. 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THEN. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE EARLY AND MID MORNING BEFORE THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM BRINGS MORE RAIN TO THE AREA.
146 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO OUR NE THRU TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION THU.
231 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015 Temperatures are much cooler today behind the front with highs in the Permian Basin only expected to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. High winds at the base of the upper trough are moving over the region resulting in a tight pressure gradient and strong winds at the surface. Surface winds will begin to weaken this evening as the upper trough over the OK and TX panhandles moves northeastward. Temperatures will likely get to freezing or below across the higher elevations, southeast New Mexico plains, and parts of Gaines County. A broad upper level trough will be over the northcentral conus on Wednesday with west to northwest flow over the CWA.
A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE LAND AREAS BY THIS EVENING. SEASONAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL FCST TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. CLOUDS GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A WEAK WARM FRONT IMPACTS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. EXPECTING WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM.
218 PM MST TUE NOV 17 2015 THE UPPER LOW IS RAPIDLY MOVING AWAY. IN FACT WESTERLY WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO BLOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. WE WILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE IN THE FLOW SO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW GUSTS IN THE LOWER 50S NEAR BOULDER AND JEFFCO. TOMORROW THE COMPETING FORCES OF WESTERLY FLOW AND SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL RESULT IN WARMER MAX TEMPERATURES AT FORT COLLINS AND GREELEY.
Overall severe chance is low, but we will monitor, in case the low trop thermal profile and lapse rates end up more favorable than what is forecast. Dry and cooler Wednesday night. A 500 mb trough will be carved out across the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region over the weekend.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT NOW LIES WELL OFFSHORE AND CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA ENTIRELY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS MAY ALSO PLAY HAVOC WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA BY NOT LETTING AS MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCUR THOUGH WITH A COOLER STARTING POINT AND DRIER DEWPOINTS NOW IN PLACE LOW TO MID-40S STILL LOOK VERY POSSIBLE. HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER-70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH A FEW COOLER SPOTS POSSIBLE WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF DEEPER MIXING AND A WETTER GROUND.
MODELS INDICATE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON BUT IF IT STAYS MORE PARTLY CLOUDY THAN MOSTLY CLOUDY WILL HAVE TO BUMP UP THE HIGHS. THIS TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AFTER 00Z.
200 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015 GOING TO STAY WET TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH/NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO CANADA. MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL HELP ERODE OUR RAIN CHANCES A BIT. THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHOULD KEEP ITS DEFORMATION REGION MOSTLY WEST/NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WED/WED NIGHT.
1245 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE. SURFACE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AFTER 06Z, BRINGING ISOLATED -SHRASN VCNTY KCTB/KGTF/KHLN THRU 12Z.
315 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015 THE UPPER LOW WAS MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT MID AFTERNOON WITH THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF TEXAS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAD ALREADY MOVED EAST AND OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. LINGERING RAIN CHANCES WILL END DURING THE EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. FOLLOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
309 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 A STRONG TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PULL NORTHEAST DURING THE SHORT TERM. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A WEDGE PATTERN.
WITH A RETURN OF AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT IS STILL BRINGING ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE DESERTS GIVEN 925MB TEMPS AROUND 10C. THE REGION WILL STAY ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE. UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE FOOTHILLS/HIGHER TERRAIN.
259 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN EXIT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
227 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A MILDER RETURN FLOW RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THEN TODAY.
334 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015 THE LOW HAS STARTED PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO THE WRAP AROUND PRECIP MOVING INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. THE WINDS WILL START CALMING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THE SNOW SHOULD CEASE ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SNOW LEAVES THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AS THE LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
247 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING STRONG UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN OKALAHOMA AND KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. WE SHOULD INCREASING RAIN SHOWERS AGAIN LATE EVENING AND EARLY WED MORNING AS THE TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE AREA. THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDER AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. THE TRANSITION PERIOD WILL OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTN/EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT TO GENERATE A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW. THAT WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR IN COOLER THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO PRODUCE SNOW AT THE SFC WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING.
314 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015 GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CENTERED OVER SRN KS AND NRN OKLA. IN THE LOWER 50S. WITH LOWS NEAR OF SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPROCK. TROUGHS OF VARYING AMPLITUDES PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL SERVE TO DISLODGE UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR. THE FIRST INSTANCE OF THIS IS SCHEDULED LATE WED NIGHT AND WILL PALE IN COMPARISON TO A STRONGER COLD FRONT ABOUT 48 HOURS LATER.
1145 AM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN EXIT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE HIGH CLOUDS. SO DID NOT INCREASE THE HIGH TEMPS. A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER WRN OK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL DRAG A CDFNT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY AFTN.
Mid and high level cloudiness spilling SEwd into Norcal from the Pac NW as anticyclonic flow on the east side of the Pac ridge strengthens. Can't rule out a chance of light precip across the far Nrn mtn zones into Wed with warm frontal precip today. a weakening cold front dropping south of the CA/OR border later tonite and Wed morning. Milder daytime temps are expected due to strengthening high pressure.
145 PM PST TUE NOV 17 2015 OFFSHORE WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH INDIANA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT THE HOOSIER STATE IS GOING TO BE IN A PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COLD FRONTS TAKING TURNS AFFECTING OUR WEATHER.
425 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST WILL EJECT NORTHWARD TO THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY AS IT WEAKENS AND ALSO EJECTS NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL SEE A COLD FRONT MOVE EAST AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT THE WARM AND MOIST PUSH TO GET WRUNG OUT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EAST AND WRING OUT THIS MOISTURE AS IT CROSSES. AND THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT COLD PUSH BEHIND IT WITH BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SITUATED WELL INTO CANADA OVER JAMES BAY. JUST COOLER AIR.
254 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 CURRENTLY - A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. FORECAST - THE SPRAWLING HIGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE UNITED STATES AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRYS MID SECTION.
1133 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015 GUSTY WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. KWWR AND KGAG HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR MVFR CEILINGS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA NEAR THE MID/UPPER LOW AND EVEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. COOLER.
1133 AM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 UPDATE UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS STATES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. BEGINNING TO CREATE BOW SEGMENTS AS IT MOVES EAST OF I-49 CORRIDOR AND INTO WARMER AIR. POST TROUGH WINDS AT KTXK. RADAR MOSAICS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A STEADY PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EDGING TOWARD TERRELL TEXAS NOW AND SHOULD BE INTO TYLER FOR THE MORNING RUSH TO WORK AND SCHOOL. BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE THE REAL DIFFERENCE ON TEMPS AND A LIGHT JACKET IS A GREAT IDEA ESPECIALLY FOR THE SCHOOL KIDS.
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TREKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. VERY DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW HAS RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES /IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S AS OF 20Z/ AND AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF BREEZINESS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
335 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PLEASANT LATE FALL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.
421 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY.
/ISSUED 536 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015/ 12Z TAF CYCLE LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION AROUND A MID AND UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL IMPACT THE THREE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 00Z TO 05Z WEDNESDAY.
1216 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015 THE SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM 06Z SHOWED A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN EXTREME NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE PUMPING MOIST AIR TOWARD THE FRONT. A WARM NOSE DEVELOPS WHICH WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SLEET AND PERHAPS FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGEOVER OCCURS. A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A BAND OF ELEVATED FRONTOGENESIS FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
258 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015 A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH DRIFTS NORTHEAST. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS BACKED IN THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. THIS WOULD BRING A SMALL WINDOW WHEN SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS FREEZING RAIN. BOTH THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND THE LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS HINTING THAT THE SATURATION WILL TAKE PLACE A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HAVE SHIFTED THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS IN THIS DIRECTION.
252 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015 Water vapor imagery showing well defined upper level low over the panhandle of Oklahoma, with dry slot pushing into eastern Oklahoma and eastern Kansas. This low will continue to lift northeast into Kansas tonight. Will continue to see Moderate to heavy rainfall early this evening, mainly east of the highway 65 corridor. cannot rule out shower chances through at least the morning hours Wednesday as moisture wraps around the low, but models consistent in keeping this north of the area, so went with only 14 percent probabilities. We should finally see improvement as high pressure begins to build westward into the region which will continue into Wednesday night.
1232 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 AVIATION UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS STATES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE ANTI-CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE POSITIVE-TILT RIDGE AXIS TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTHWEST OF UTAH LEFT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS MIDWEEK SUGGEST A BIT COOLER AIR MAY SETTLE INTO THE NORTH WITH SOMEWHAT IMPROVED BAROCLINIC STRUCTURE AND MORE PRECIP.