Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The best chance for rain will be from this afternoon through tomorrow, as a cold front slowly moves across the region. Through out the day today we can expect scattered showers and storms to increase in coverage as a cold front approaches from the north. The most widespread rain is anticipated tonight and Friday, as the cold front moves slowly across the region. Due to the high moisture content of the atmosphere, and the presence of the front, locally heavy rainfall will be possible at times, especially with stronger thunderstorms, or anywhere that multiple storms move repeatedly across the same locations.
125 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017 A cold front will sag southward across the region as low pressure moves eastward across the lower Ohio Valley.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): Mid level ridge builds into the region while an inverted upper trough continues to shift westward across Mexico. Temperatures running a little warmer than anticipated out west today, so bumped up max temps across portions of the upper valley and ranchlands a couple of degrees for this afternoon. RH values fall into the lower to mid 20s across the western zones tomorrow afternoon, but 20 ft winds remain below 15 mph, and should preclude any significant fire weather concerns.
Ridge of high pressure at 500mb entrenched over the western CONUS. This will be the focus for thunderstorms this afternoon as a stronger wave moves around the ridge. Southerly flow tonight over western Nebraska will hold temperatures up in the low 60s.
As mentioned in the previous discussion, high pressure expanded westward early this week breaking off the direct flow of monsoon moisture into the region.
Early morning elevated convection northwest, portions of north central, and south central is the highlight in the near term period.
The upper level trough that brought 1 to 3 inches of snow across northern and east central counties yesterday will amplify across the east central US Today. After a cold morning start, highs should warm into the lower to mid 30s across much of the CWA. Tonight lows in the lower to mid 30s will probably occur just after Midnight.
/ISSUED 341 AM CST THU FEB 5 2015/ THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE CWA. FORTUNATELY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN US QUICKLY AND TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN THE TEENS WILL NOT IMPACT MIDDLE TN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AFTER THE CLOUD DECK MOVES THROUGH. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE BELOW ZERO FOR THE DAY AS WELL. THANKFULLY AN APPROACHING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BRING WAA BY FRIDAY.
405 AM CST THU FEB 5 2015 GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BE USHERING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. BUT THIS SHOULD END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY MID MORNING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE LOWER LEVELS. ALLOWING FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER 60S IN EASTERN AREAS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
349 AM EST THU FEB 19 2015 A PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY.
An upper level ridge of high pressure centered over the Northern Rockies will weaken slightly as a weak weather disturbance moves east across BC tonight through Thursday morning. Will therefore continue the High Wind Warning as is for that area. The gusty winds and high pressure aloft will also keep temperatures mild through Thursday, as temperatures remain 10 to 15 degrees above normal. As the flow aloft becomes more northerly on Friday, the higher chance for rain and snow will be over the plains, due to the better upslope winds. Gusty northwest winds and cooler temperatures will accompany the associated cold frontal passage on Friday, cooling temperatures closer to seasonal averages.
951 PM MST WED FEB 18 2015 AFTER A COOLER START TO THE WEEK. IN THE BIG PICTURE THE WEST COAST RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED INLAND NOW ORIENTED FROM EASTERN CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD TO EASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS RIDGE GETS FLATTENED TONIGHT UNDER ENERGY OFF THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH AT 700 MB FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA FRI NIGHT.
STREAMERS FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THANKS TO THE DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS AND SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE ARCTIC AIR ALOFT EXITS FRIDAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGES MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS GOING IN ERNEST FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY THANKS TO THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST AND THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE HEADING TOWARD THE NJ COAST.
945 PM PST WED FEB 18 2015 NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DIRTY RIDGING ALOFT IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING FROM A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS AND A WEAK TROUGH NEAR 30N AND 130W. THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE AREA. FRIDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH A DEEPER AND MORE WIDESPREAD MARINE LYR. THIS FIRST TROF WILL PASS HARMLESSLY EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT BUT BEHIND IT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A VERY BRIEF NORTHEAST PUSH THAT MIGHT ACTUALLY KILL SOME OF THE MARINE LYR AND EITHER SLOW THE COOLING TREND OR POSSIBLY WARM UP A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS.
1151 PM CST WED FEB 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ENVELOP UPPER MIDWEST. SUB ZERO AREA WIDE AND WITH STEADY NORTHWEST WINDS ON EAST SIDE OF RIDGE. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF MEAN UPPER TROUGH FURTHER WEST WILL LIKELY PUSH ACROSS NATIONS MIDSECTION CLOSER TO INTERSTATE 70 WHICH COULD SPREAD ANOTHER SNOW THREAT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN CONTINUATION OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. THEN SE 4-8 KTS THURSDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST.
COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.
THEY WILL SWITCH SOUTH SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE INTO THE TEENS WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20KT RANGE BY MID AFTERNOON. WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURES FROM WEST/WARMER/ TO EAST/COOLER/.
A weak weather disturbance moving east across BC tonight will weaken the upper level ridge currently in place over the Northern Rockies. Will therefore continue the High Wind Warning as is for that area. The gusty winds and high pressure aloft will also keep temperatures mild through Thursday, as temperatures remain 10 to 15 degrees above normal. As the flow aloft becomes more northerly on Friday, the higher chance for rain and snow will be over the plains, due to the better upslope winds. Gusty northwest winds and cooler temperatures will accompany the associated cold frontal passage on Friday, cooling temperatures closer to seasonal averages.
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW IS PLANTED OVER ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES WITH A SHARP TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U. WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SE KS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MODELS REMAINING CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW LAYERS SATURATING ALONG WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE RIGHT OFF OF THE SURFACE. SHOULD SEE ALL TYPES OF WINTER PRECIP ON SAT WITH RAIN/FREEZING RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW FIRST OVER CENTRAL KS WITH ALL SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY 06Z SUN. COULD SEE SOME ISSUES SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW AS THE ARCTIC AIR SPILLS SOUTH. -HOWERTON FIRE DANGER ISSUES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL KEEP THE RH'S ON THE HIGHER SIDE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
109 AM EST THU FEB 19 2015 IT WILL BE VERY COLD BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY.
BUT THINK THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING IN SHOULD ALLOW THE WINDS TO EASE ENOUGH TO KEEP WIND CHILLS OF -35 AND BELOW FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION. WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW/MID SINGLE DIGITS (ABOVE ZERO).
BY FRIDAY EVENING WARMER AIR WILL START TO MOVE IN TO THE AREA BUT IT WILL BRING WITH IT CHANCES FOR SNOW AND SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEKEND.
322 AM CST THU FEB 19 2015 FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS: LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES FAR SE KS LATE TONIGHT-EARLY FRI. COULD SEE PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER FAR SE KS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. AS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS.
THE CULPRIT FOR THE WINDS AND COLD AIR IS AN IMMENSE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS MOVED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY HEAD EASTWARD TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL COLD AIR ADVECTING DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS THE WINDS VEER A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH THE AIR WILL BE MODIFIED DUE TO THE WARMER WATERS SURROUNDING FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. THIS COLD OUTBREAK WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING MUCH HIGHER THAN THE LOWER 60S. TO LOW 50S ALONG THE LOWER KEYS. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DIP EVEN FURTHER WITH THE LOWER KEYS IN THE UPPER 40S WITH WIND CHILLS 40 TO 45.
150 AM MST THU FEB 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. YET REMAINING WARMER THAN AVERAGE. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN TODAY WHILE ALSO SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WE SHOULD SEE A COUPLE DEGREES OF WARMING AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.
A WEAK COLD FRONT OR AND THIS IS REFLECTED BY A CHANGE TO NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT OR SFC TROF IS PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS KGUY AND KDHT LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT AND THURSDAY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WAS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO TODAY AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES THAT HAS PLAGUED THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST U. HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS MAINTAINING DRY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY.
344 AM CST THU FEB 19 2015 FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION IN BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING TO OUR WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR EARLY TODAY WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL GREATLY DECREASE THE WINDS. THE WELL ADVERTISED WARM FRONT BEGINS TO NUDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THE LOW LEVELS ARE MOISTURE STARVED TO BEGIN WITH. BUT MEASURABLE POPS WILL BE AT LIKELY IN THIS HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT. TO FREEZING OR ABOVE MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
900 PM PST WED FEB 18 2015 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DIRTY RIDGING ALOFT IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING FROM A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS AND A WEAK TROUGH NEAR 30N AND 130W. THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE AREA. FRIDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH A DEEPER AND MORE WIDESPREAD MARINE LYR. THIS FIRST TROF WILL PASS HARMLESSLY EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT BUT BEHIND IT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A VERY BRIEF NORTHEAST PUSH THAT MIGHT ACTUALLY KILL SOME OF THE MARINE LYR AND EITHER SLOW THE COOLING TREND OR POSSIBLY WARM UP A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS.
BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE EARLY CANCELLATION IN THE WEST AS WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CWA WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PRECEDE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THURSDAY. TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE.
1037 PM MST WED FEB 18 2015 UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA AS LEE TROF DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER AS THE LEE TROF DEEPENS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS SHOULDN'T BE AS STRONG AS LAST NIGHT/S ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH THE UPPER JET SHIFTING EASTWARD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH GENERALLY 30S AND 40S FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. SHEARING OR SPLITTING TROUGHS IN NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEEP TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST. BEFORE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP ARRIVES WITH THE COLD FRONT AFTER 06Z SAT.
/ISSUED 1004 PM CST WED FEB 18 2015/ REINFORCING COLD FRONT NOW CLEARING OUR SWRN MOST COUNTIES IN DEEP E TX WITH ONLY THE SLIGHTEST CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT.
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS AMPLIFIED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES, RESULTING IN THE ADVANCE OF ARCTIC AIR FROM CANADA INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TODAY, RESULTING IN LEE TROUGHING AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HIGH TEMPERATURES, WITH THE NAM/ECMWF COOLER AND RAP/HRRR WARMER FROM DODGE CITY WESTWARD. A COMPROMISE WAS USED BETWEEN THE COOLER ECMWF/NAM AND MESOSCALE MODELS. FORECAST HIGHS SHOW 50S TO LOWER 60S IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS, WITH COOLER LOWER 40S IN CENTRAL KANSAS LOCATIONS LIKE HAYS AND PRATT THAT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE INFLUENCE OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST.
High pressure trying to build into the region on the heels of the exiting storm system. Visible satellite imagery already showing the diminishing cu field and have backed down the clouds accordingly, but not so much over the IN border, nearer to the trof axis. with a slightly warmer trof through the center of the state in the gap of the snow field. Morning upper air continues to show deep major trough over the central and eastern US. Deep arctic air to remain over the region rest of work week as deep upper level trough remains intrenched over eastern half of US.
SKIES HAVE GONE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW MOVING INTO THE MID STATE WITH A CONSIDERABLY WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.
1004 PM CST WED FEB 18 2015 REINFORCING COLD FRONT NOW CLEARING OUR SWRN MOST COUNTIES IN DEEP E TX WITH ONLY THE SLIGHTEST CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT. /ISSUED 333 PM CST WED FEB 18 2015/ LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR REGION AND MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF THE U. TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOME AREAS OF SW AR/SE OK WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY MORNING. WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FREEZING RAIN FOR THESE AREAS. SHWRS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY MID-MORNING.
Some breezy northerly winds will also occur with slightly cooler temperatures. The ridge has flattened out due to a low pressure area that moved through British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest earlier. A ridge will start to rebuild along the West Coast during Friday and a trough will start to dig into the Great Basin.
500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVEN AS A 500MB TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN U. AS THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U. MOVES EASTWARD AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHWEST TX. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST FRIDAY AS A RESULT. EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY.
A FLAT RIDGE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED MILD WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS AROUND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER OVERNIGHT THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.
1105 PM CST WED FEB 18 2015 WINDS CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A COLD NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO WITH SOME PLACES GETTING UNDER -20. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA. WE WILL LIKELY NOT NEED ANY HEADLINES MUCH PAST SUNSET TONIGHT AS WINDS DIE OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERING ITSELF OVER THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS. THE HIGHS SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING. A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS SWINGS INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND WILL LIKELY BRING LIGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL FEEL MUCH BETTER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. YET REMAINING WARMER THAN AVERAGE. WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPS FORECAST DOWN INTO PARTS OF INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA. ARE KEEPING OUR CWA UNDER STRONG RIDGING ALOFT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK. WITH 80 DEGREE HIGHS LIKELY TO RETURN TO THE WARMER LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.
756 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2015 AVIATION AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN AND IT WILL TURN COOLER.
1211 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEKEND. AREA OF CLEARING OVER OHIO BEGINNING TO FILL IN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. FRONT CROSSES AND EXITS THIS EVENING WITH A LINGER SHOWER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.
1045 AM MDT SAT MAR 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY THANKS TO SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR DEVELOPING ALOFT AND LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS. SOME OF WHICH WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE RIDGING TODAY FOR SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON.
705 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
1233 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2015 A COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST ONTARIO THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
1034 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2015 A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER CENTRAL PA EARLY TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BE MORE COMMON THAN SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL ULTIMATELY SHIFT OUR WINDS TO THE NW AND EVENTUALLY BRING SOME DRIER AIR AND IMPROVEMENT. THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS REACHING AROUND 50F FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF WEST TEXAS TONIGHT MOVING CLOSER TO OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY BUT DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD RESULT IN THE RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING TOWARDS THE END OF THE 24 HR TAF PACAKGE WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS LINGERING HOWEVER.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NOW OVER SOUTH AND EAST TEXAS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF NEARS. CLOUDS AND RAINS WILL KEEP THE TEMPS COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. BY LATE ON SUNDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY GET A KICK AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
741 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2015 AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA TODAY AND BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY.
1038 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2015 AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA TODAY AND BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY.
618 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP THE NORTHWEST WINDS GOING IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE. THIS EVENING TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AS THE RIDGE SETTLES MORE FULLY INTO THE AREA.
541 AM MDT SAT MAR 21 2015 UPPER LOW OVER OLD MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO SRN TX BY THIS EVENING ALLOWING FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVER CO. WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD BE A MILD NIGHT AS WELL AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AND LEE TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP ENHANCED WESTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS/I-25 CORRIDOR.
1059 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2015 High pressure across the region will allow for a dry and warm day. An upper level trough will move across the southern plains but should have little impacts for the region. Sunday will see a continuation of the nice Spring weekend as an upper level ridge builds over the western CONUS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER ALL OF OUR CWA AS A PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES INLAND TO THE ENE.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING CENTERED OVER WESTERN CUBA IS KEEPING THE ENVIRONMENT CAPPED WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR ALOFT.
637 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2015 Saturday - Sunday: A pretty nice weekend is in store despite a weak cold front dropping south through northern and central MO today. Inspection of progged soundings shows the low-level warm nose will still be present today but the vertical stratification of the boundary layer winds will likely not support deep mixing. Sunday still looks like the warmest day as warm air advection noses east towards the western CWA and think we should be able to warm into the lower 70s. The northeastern counties won't see this warming as an easterly wind will likely hold temperatures in the lower 60s.
635 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2015 High pressure across the region will allow for a dry and warm day. An upper level trough will move across the southern plains but should have little impacts for the region. Sunday will see a continuation of the nice Spring weekend as an upper level ridge builds over the western CONUS.
919 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2015 A DRY SUBSIDENT AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYERED RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF/WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT AMPLE SUNSHINE AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THE REST OF TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL FILTER COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL RETREAT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF THE REGION. ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS A CONCERN WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHICH WOULD LIMIT PCPN AMOUNTS.
830 AM PDT SAT MAR 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TODAY WILL MOVE EAST AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
1005 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEKEND. AREA OF CLEARING OVER OHIO BEGINNING TO FILL IN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. FRONT CROSSES AND EXITS THIS EVENING WITH A LINGER SHOWER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 68 50 65 48 / 0 20 30 50 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 46 65 45 / 0 10 20 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 66 46 65 45 / 0 10 20 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 64 42 63 40 / 0 10 10 20.
531 AM MDT SAT MAR 21 2015 UPPER LOW OVER OLD MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO SRN TX BY THIS EVENING ALLOWING FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVER CO. WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD BE A MILD NIGHT AS WELL AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AND LEE TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP ENHANCED WESTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS/I-25 CORRIDOR.