Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front will sweep across central Indiana tonight and push cooler and drier air into the state. Dry weather is expected in the wake of the front for the second half of the weekend as High pressure builds across the Ohio Valley.
Sunday will see much less chances of convection with decreasing moisture and rising heights as an upper level ridge begins to build into the region.
Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage this afternoon across northeast New Mexico and southeast Colorado as the cold air aloft in association with a short wave trough over Colorado moves over and unstable and moist air mass. A tornado would also not be out of the question as shear increases late this afternoon with the passage of the upper level trough to our north.
A weak trough of low pressure bisects the area this afternoon. Aloft, an upper trough is over the central sections of the country, and a ridge is over the gulf. To the west of the trough a slightly more stable air mass is suppressing activity. Tonight and Sunday the trough will gradually weaken, but with PWATs still remaining around 2" daytime scattered storms can still be expected by afternoon.
Convection has initiated as hinted upon by a number of the higher resolution models. Sunday will see much less chances of convection with decreasing moisture and rising heights as an upper level ridge begins to build into the region.
Lingering thermal trof and weak passing mid-level short wave may cause some cloud redevelopment but low levels do dry out during the late night, adding to a better chance of fog development. Thermal trof and weak 5H wave does pass across srn WI late tonight into early Sunday which may generate more patchy clouds during the late night. High The northern portion of high pressure will build into southern Wisconsin tonight, then slide southeastward a bit on Sunday. Should see skies eventually turn mostly clear this evening into tonight as the high builds in and daytime heating is lost. Seems like just enough wind in the lower levels to keep widespread fog from forming.
Ridging will build in behind the current trough and ahead of the advancing trough from the northern Plains Sunday. A thermal ridge with 925 mb temps of +21 to +26C will push into the area by afternoon, warmest across western MN. Therefore, the high temp gradient probably won't be as extreme as mixing purely from 925 mb would indicate. The trough axis/cold front will be located from north central MN to eastern Nebraska Sunday evening.
Models differ somewhat but the low level moisture may make another run to the northwest, and impact KROW to Clovis area aft 18/06Z with at least lcl MVFR cigs.
914 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 2016 A weak cold front will move slowly move southeast into the region overnight.
We'll stay in the low to mid 70s for the remainder of the night.
Upper level trough and pocket of cold air advancing toward the region this afternoon aiding cumulus development and expansion within steepening lapse rate environment. A weak ridge of high pressure was located over the Missouri River Valley, with a warm front extending across the Northern Plains. Warm air advection aloft commences late tonight on backside of departing ridge, and this will enhance an inversion and likely lead to some fog especially in low lying areas with visibilities potentially quite variable.
652 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016 A cold front over eastern Iowa and northern Missouri will push across the state overnight bringing drier conditions for the remainder of the weekend.
1147 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016 The cold front is continuing to make slow progress across Illinois from NW to SE, approaching the Illinois River Valley around 02z/9pm. A cold front over eastern Iowa and northern Missouri will push across the state overnight bringing drier conditions for the remainder of the weekend.
temps are mainly ranging from the mid 70s to the lower 80s w/ a SSW surface gradient.
/issued 259 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016/ A cold front currently stretches from Dyersburg to Tunica. The trof will help push the cold front out of the CWA. Expect chances for rain to come to an end by Sunday evening as the upper trof moves east of the CWA.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S COAST.
Low pressure noted on visible satellite circulating over northern Lake Superior this afternoon. No real surface cold front to speak of with this system, but the thermal trough aloft, currently supporting stratus/stratocu over MN/IA/WI this afternoon will pivot through the area during the day sunday. Fast quasi-zonal upper-level flow will settle in for early week as the burgeoning subtropical ridge over the southern US expands north against substantial NE Pac jet energy spreading into the northern tier.
728 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 2016 A cold front will push east of the region overnight.
Low temps tonight expected to be in the low to mid 70s and some patchy light fog will also be possible overnight.
Scattered to occasionally numerous showers and a few storms should continue across south central and east central KY through the overnight as we remain in overall SW flow ahead of an approaching trough axis. Look for highs in the low to mid 80s. We'll see cooler overnight lows in the upper 50s to around 60.
747 PM PDT Sat Sep 17 2016 An early Autumn Pacific storm system has arrived with wet conditions, breezy winds and cooler temperatures expected.
1125 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the north will weaken ahead of an approaching cold front.
This wave will move east overnight, and while some of the weather models hint at spotty precip chances moving into the area by late evening, the highres CAMs mostly suggest that the area should remain dry with just an increase in cloud cover. A cold front tries to push into northeast NE by late Sunday afternoon but dissipates quickly Sunday evening.
Weak high pressure will build south tonight over the area. However, some convection is expected to form across the High Plains tonight, and may clip extreme southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri tomorrow morning as it pushes southeast along the 925 and 850 MB fronts. The only other hazard overnight will be fog potential, mainly across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks, where temperatures will be somewhat cooler. Dewpoints will be a bit lower over central Missouri, where a secondary cold front will just nose into the region. A period of very warm and humid weather is then expected for most of the workweek, as upper level ridging becomes established across the Southern Plains.
At the surface, high pressure slides off to the east, allowing return flow to usher in warm air advection and southerly flow tonight and Sunday. With southerly winds, lows tonight will be slightly warmer tonight compared to this morning, holding in the 50s.
Quiet evening expected for the area as weak surface ridging exits to the east. Clouds, along with 850 mb warm advection really ramping up towards Sunday morning, will keep low temperatures fairly mild in the low to mid 50s. Deepening low pressure centered across southern Saskatchewan will place the region between systems with a tightening pressure gradient.
703 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016 Low pressure over eastern Lake Superior has continued to produce clouds and scattered showers. This low pressure system should move far enough east tonight to allow a ridge to build in, bringing the showers to an end and clearing skies overnight. Upstream in Canada there were some upper 30s under this ridge, and would not be surprised if some of our cold spots got that cold as well. The warm front moving in will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon in the far northwest from around KINL towards KBJI.
Temperatures will continue to be warmer than normal, lows tonight in the upper 60s/near 70, and highs Sunday in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
/This evening through Sunday/ As upper trough axis finishes pivoting through the region, trailing upper level forcing will continue to keep low stratus, around 1500- 2500ft, across fair portion of northern Iowa into this evening. With clouds unable to break up as quickly as anticipated, temperatures across the north remained on cool side of original forecast highs and could see lows into the lower 50s even with southerly flow returning as clouds eventually clear out. Followed by trough digging across northern plains to end week sweeping cold front through Saturday.
758 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 A slow moving cold front across the Central Lakes will move across the forecast area tonight. High pressure will build across the area Sunday night. Cold front just into NW Indiana. Cooler and drier air move into the area from the West Sunday night as high pressure builds over the area.
Still expect the weather to be dry tonight and tomorrow even though there will be a weak mid level trough move across the area early tomorrow. Generally went cooler than MOS temperatures for lows in most areas tonight based on expected radiational cooling.
Two trough passages bring unsettled weather for the new work week.
After collaboration with surrounding offices, will again opt to hold off on any headlines for now since the lowest humidity values are in a spatially limited area near the South Dakota border. There are still differences in the models regarding thermal profiles with this system, but there is general agreement in higher chances for precipitation and cooler temperatures. A cold front will pass through North Dakota on Sunday bringing gusty winds up to 35 knots at KISN and 30 knots at KDIK.
Under partly cloudy skies, temperatures in the Florida Keys are slowly falling into the lower 80s.
As storms develop in the said favored areas around 21Z they are likely to track E, possibly SE (in the eventual form an MCS?) into the low level moist axis within a region of upper divergence (RRQ of 3h 70-80kt jet). Mid level ridge starts to build in Sunday, but while doing so mid level flow will briefly become NW and there could be an isold pocket of convection across the PB late Sunday PM as SB instability may focus within a small area of high theta-e air at the surface.
901 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016 The cold front is continuing to make slow progress across Illinois from NW to SE, approaching the Illinois River Valley around 02z/9pm. A cold front over eastern Iowa and northern Missouri will push across the state overnight bringing drier conditions for the remainder of the weekend.
716 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the north will weaken ahead of an approaching cold front.
Skies have cleared over most areas and afternoon temperature trends are running several degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Watsonville is 11 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time and is 79 degrees. Given the tightening northerly gradient, expect less inland extent to the low clouds tonight, however there will still be fog and stratus at the immediate coast. High pressure aloft will continue to build in over the area and Sunday is still expected to be the warmest day.
Skies clear for the remainder of the overnight period, with temperatures dropping into the low 50s for most locations. For Sunday, dry weather returns as high pressure builds back into the region.
These should dissipate rapidly by around sunset, as the upper trof shifts east and daytime instability wanes. High pressure will build into north central and central WI late tonight, and the resulting light winds and clearing skies should lead to at least patchy fog in the Wisconsin River Valley. A cooler night is in store, with lows dropping into the upper 40s to middle 50s in most locations.
838 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 Sea breeze and outflow boundary interactions lead to scattered showers and some storms over the region during the afternoon but weak lapse rates and rather warm mid level temperatures (-5C at 500MB) kept storm intensity in check and overall convective coverage on the low side. Similar to last night an onshore sea breeze component along the coast will collapse within the next hour or so as loss of daytime heating continues with a light northeast to east wind flow along with slight seas expected across the Gulf waters the rest of tonight as weak high pressure over the southeastern States remains in control.
An upper level ridge will build across the region Sunday night through midweek.
With no forcing mechanisms and weak ridging aloft, am not expecting the coverage of activity to be all that high. Highs tomorrow will be well above normals in the lower to middle 90s with some upper 90s expected in the southwestern CWA.
Total rainfall amounts of up to a half inch are expected in the higher elevations of Baker County and the West Central Mountains through Sunday.
940 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2016 Mid-level trough of low pressure/steep low level lapse rates producing an extensive field of cumulus/stratocumulus across the region. Clouds will diminish from west to east this evening as the trough exits east of the area and as a weak ridge builds in from the Plains. a fairly chilly night in store with lows ranging from the middle/upper 40s across central WI to the lower/middle 50s elsewhere across the forecast area. Warm air advection and some 850mb moisture transport pushes into the area on Sunday as low pressure tracks across south central Canada. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms moves into areas mainly along and north of I-90 Sunday night as 850mb moisture transport/mid- level instability increases ahead of an approaching cold front dropping out of northern MN/WI.
Expect temperatures to be a few degrees warmer than today for most locations.
1132 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 A moist southerly flow ahead of a slow moving cold front will bring occasional showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the weekend.
955 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 A slow moving cold front across the Central Lakes will move across the forecast area tonight. High pressure will build across the area Sunday night. Cooler and drier air move into the area from the West Sunday night as high pressure builds over the area.
High pressure is in control of the weather and VFR conditions are generally expected. /issued 246 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday night): H5 ridge continues to build aloft as active pattern remains well to the north. Sunday will be similar to today, as the H5 ridge dominates the region.
Tonight, the mid level high pressure system will continue to shift east bringing drier mid levels across S TX.
Otherwise, updated temperatures and dew points based on latest observations with overnight lows falling into the low to mid 70s inland and near 80 along the coast.
922 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 2016 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected until passage of a cold front on Sunday night. POPs may be too high across the south late tonight into early Sunday as mid-level trough may be slower to shift east, but have only trended forecast in this direction for now.
Upper level trof moving across Northeast Colorado this afternoon with a line of storms extending across much of far Eastern Colorado. Behind the trof, decent subsidence and drying developing as noted on layered QG fields. Unsettled weather will return by mid week along with cooler temperatures.
Later this evening into the overnight, expect low stratus and a continued chance of -shra due to the low level streamflow confluence that will continue ahead of the advancing trough axis. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will redevelop during the afternoon along or just ahead of a weak cold front, mainly east of the KHSV area.
759 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 2016 Showers and thunderstorms will move through central New York and northeast Pennsylvania tonight ahead of a warm front this evening. A cold front will then slowly progress through the region late tonight and Sunday, with additional showers and storms likely at times.
Templer Previous Discussion - Synoptic Setup: A ridge lies over eastern Montana and Wyoming. Conditions will remain dry through the afternoon as the ridge aloft collapses to the southeast.
high pressure over northern Utah and northwestern Colorado is in control of the weather with mostly sunny skies and west winds mainly gusting in the teens across the area.
604 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016 After a round of morning fog, skies have become mostly sunny across the area with highs reaching into the low 80s for most locations. Convection has formed across the high plains of Colorado and far western Kansas, and is slowly making its way eastward. On Sunday, not expecting a repeat of the fog given increasing southerly winds through the period, with high temperatures a few degrees warmer today in the middle 80s. Models are in smilier agreement with the main jet stream carrying embedded upper waves across the far northern CONUS while an upper ridge dominates the southern plains and a cut off low rotates off the CA coast.
A cold front will move very slowly across the mid state overnight.
1026 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the north will weaken ahead of an approaching cold front.
Currently, under sunny sky/light wind conditions, temperatures are warming through the 70s, and in some spots up into the low to mid 80s. There is a cold front forecast to sweep through the cwa on Sunday with little fan-fare other than an increase in wind speed to 20 to 30 mph with some higher gusts from the northwest across portions of north central South Dakota by early Sunday afternoon.
1032 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 2016 Showers and thunderstorms will move through central New York and northeast Pennsylvania overnight ahead of a warm front. A cold front will then slowly progress through the region Sunday, with additional showers and storms at times.
(Issued 241 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016) Welcome rainfall is occurring today and expected to continue into tomorrow as the last summer cold front approaches the TN valley. The main mitigating factors with the thunderstorm threats are the weak lift and the low amount of instability after sunset. In addition, the hi-res models may be under-playing the highly saturated environment with PWATs close to 2. As alluded to earlier, post-frontal showers and thunderstorms are possible due to elevated instability and lift from the passing trough. Once shower activity has slowly ended on Sunday night, cloud cover should also recede with temperatures expected to drop into the low to mid 60s and possibly some fog formation.
Overnight lows will dip into the low to mid 70s. This was occurring in a region of weak large scale ascent, likely associated with a weak mid level trough over coastal LA. Although that system is expected to weaken, another trough will approach from the northwest, maintaining weak synoptic scale lift overnight.
824 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 2016 Showers and thunderstorms will move through central New York and northeast Pennsylvania tonight ahead of a warm front this evening. A cold front will then slowly progress through the region late tonight and Sunday, with additional showers and storms likely at times.
759 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 2016 A cold front will move slowly to Central Ohio tonight, continuing the threat for showers and a few thunderstorms.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 85 69 89 / 50 60 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 82 66 85 / 50 60 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 69 82 67 86 / 60 70 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 79 63 83 / 20 60 40 10.
253 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016 The cold front is moving southeast through the area, although a prefrontal trough has stolen much of the surface convergence. The combination of this prefrontal trough, lack of significant moisture and some stronger CIN, look to keep the precipitation chances and coverage a lot more muted than previously thought. Will keep the highest pops southeast.
318 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016 An inverted trough of low pressure across southern MN today continues to produce widespread showery activity with isolated thunder embedded in a few of the taller showers. This trough will very slowly work its way east through tonight, and we'll see a gradual clearing trend this evening across western MN, and through eastern MN and into western WI later tonight. On the east side of the trough, we expect patchy fog development tonight with our western WI counties to be the most susceptible to fog development. By Saturday night, a cooler set-up is expected with high pressure building across the Upper Mississippi River Valley.
Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s for much of the region. Temperatures will continue to be a bit cooler with highs across the region in the lower to mid 80s. On Sun the upr ridge pushes back into the area from the west as a new upr trof moves into the Pacific NW. Sun afternoon and evening it looks like mainly isold showers/tstms wl be possible ovr the hyr trrn, with dry weather at the lower elevations. The upr ridge wl still be ovr the area on Mon and it looks generally dry, but some isold storms will be possible ovr the hyr trrn. Temps on Mon should be a little warmer.
With the decrease and westward shift in the highest rain chances, the area of rain-cooled air shifts west.
Modest warming is expected for Saturday as upper level high pressure continues to build over the area and further compress the marine layer.
Excessive heat conditions will impact the lower to middle Susquehanna Valley through the upcoming weekend. Convection will diminish after sunset with a warm and muggy night as area remains under influence of ridging. Broad upper troughing will continue to move eastward across the Upper Great Lakes while losing amplitude with time to the more confluent flow aloft. A very moist airmass will remain in place ahead of the cold front with PW values of 2+ inches or near record values based on SPC sounding climatology.
Temperatures will trend a bit cooler today and Saturday with highs holding in the 80s. The next chance at thunderstorms will be Saturday afternoon over Colorado as a weak mid level trough moves toward the Central Plains in NW flow aloft.
251 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016 Surface front has made its way across much of the forecast area this afternoon, while the broader upper trof moves eastward across the state. Incoming dewpoints in the 60s bring some relief from the high humidities of recent days on Saturday. Overnight lows fall into the 60s with daytime highs in the low to middle 80s. Weak upper trough will linger across the region this weekend however aside from some mid cloud don't expect any precip given the low level frontal position well southeast of the area.
302 PM EDT Fri Aug 12 2016 High pressure remains over the western Atlantic through the weekend.
Excessive heat conditions will impact the lower to middle Susquehanna Valley through the weekend. Convection will diminish after sunset with a warm and muggy night as area remains under influence of ridging. Broad upper troughing will continue to move eastward across the Upper Great Lakes while losing amplitude with time to the more confluent flow aloft. A very moist airmass will remain in place ahead of the cold front with PW values of 2+ inches or near record values based on SPC sounding climatology.
Subtropical high pressure is centered off the East Coast, ridging westward over the southeast CONUS. The flow around the highs has a deep, moist, tropical air mass in place locally. This high block keeps a cold frontal boundary and any significant forcing west of the area, in the vicinity of the western Kentucky/S Illinois/S Indiana through mid week. This trough will act as the kicker to the front and help push it through Kentucky.
On Saturday, a cold front which is currently located along a Midland to Abilene line will move southward into west central Texas. This should keep the higher rain chances farther north into the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau on Saturday. Meanwhile, the upper low currently over southern Louisiana will move westward toward Texas.