Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
That will continue to be the case today as we remain under the northern extent of a ridge that extends from the desert southwest. Friday will be a transition day as a cold front sweeps across the area. Besides cooler temperatures, breezy to windy westerly winds will have the strongest gusts of up to 30 mph east of the Cascades. Also, the east side will have the highest probability of late day showers or a few thunderstorms.
Near seasonal temperatures expected today and Friday before a frontal system brings a return of cooler and wet weather for the weekend.
Highs should be in the low to mid 80s. Storms are also forecast Friday before dry and somewhat cooler conditions prevail this weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible again on Friday as a weak northern stream wave brings a cold front through the area.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): 500 mb mid-level ridging centered across northern Mexico will continue to strengthen and expand into Texas over the next few days. The northerly mid-level flow around the ridge will continue to advect dry air aloft across the region.
Max temps have been trended downward by a degree or two due to cloudy conditions and precip, but any brief breaks in the clouds could warm temps into the low 80s.
Everything looks to be on track with chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, with the highest chances across portions of northern Georgia where SPC has included a Marginal Risk for gusty winds. Region remains under a weak upper-level trough through the short- term forecast period.
Turning cooler and breezy for the weekend with a chance of afternoon thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada. The central CA interior will remain under the influence of a ridge anchored across the SW. Water vapor images show a cut off trough off the SCal coast with a dry slot moving into central CA. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon along the Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains as the trough pushes through SCal.
Cooler weather with some chances for showers and thunderstorms Friday through the weekend. The upper level pattern continues to have an upper low off the coast of southern California, while Four Corners ridging extends over NorCal, bringing hot and dry weather. Temperatures fall back to near normal values Friday as a trough begins to approach the West Coast Friday, bringing cooler and wetter weather for the weekend. Precipitation chances begin Friday night in the northern mountains and far northern Sacramento Valley as a cool upper low from the Gulf of Alaska approaches.
513 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020 Latest WV imagery and UA analysis shows a weak trough aloft over the SE CONUS with ridging building from N Mexico into far W TX. Drier air associated with this high is beginning to spread into E TX/W LA, with deeper moisture further east. At the sfc, high pres continues to ridge west acrs the northern Gulf coast, with light/near calm winds over the region. Conditions remain warm and quite muggy this morning, with temperatures in the lower to middle 70s. A weakness aloft will linger acrs the SE CONUS while ridging over W TX will build east acrs the southern plains.
Region remains under a weak upper-level trough through the short- term forecast period.
An upper trough will move over the area for the end of the week with another round of cool showery weather through the weekend.
Everything looks to be on track with chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, with the highest chances across portions of northern Georgia where SPC has included a Marginal Risk for gusty winds. /Issued 725 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020/ Region remains under a weak upper-level trough through the short- term forecast period.
319 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020 As of 20Z Thursday afternoon broad WNW midlevel flow was present across the Central Plains with an amplifying ridge across the SW US.
Breezy today with winds easing through evening and overnight as flow aloft weakens and shifts more WSW/SW in preparation for tomorrows low pressure system.
For Friday the upper level ridge in the southwest slowly starts moving towards the central plains. The upper level ridge over the southern Rockies will build northeastward into the central Plains on Friday in response to an upper level low pressure system digging into the Pacific Northwest.
306 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Quiet day today with ridging aloft over the western CONUS and high pressure spinning over the southwestern CONUS, leaving us in northwest flow aloft. High pressure at the surface today helping to keep winds fairly light. The high pressure and a warmer airmass coupled with clear skies is lending itself to highs in the 80s and lower 90s. Tomorrow mainly high pressure again at the surface with highs slightly warmer in the 90s.
1232 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 As the upper level trough currently entering the Great Lakes region continues east, its associated front will advance through the CWA. As the progressing trough deepens over the eastern CONUS, a ridge will build in the west. In the lower levels, cooler, drier air will advect in as high pressure builds into the region. The disparity between the cool nighttime air and warmer water temperatures will favor the development of river valley fog tonight.
Weaker warm air advection at 950-850mb should keep overnight temperatures slightly warmer than the previous night. As we mix through the deeper nocturnal inversion Wednesday amidst a very dry airmass, expect a slightly warmer day than today with highs likely to peak in the 90s along the Missouri River Valley and 80s elsewhere.
238 PM MDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Water vapor imagery shows strong ridging across the western CONUS, and west/northwest flow over the northern Great Plains. Upper ridge will remain nearly stationary through the rest of the week, with continued dry weather and above average temperatures. Temps will be slightly warmer than today, reaching up to the mid 90s in some spots.
Just enough lingering low- level moisture and cyclonic flow aloft with trailing upper trough may be enough to spark a brief shower passing over a TAF site, but too brief in nature to include or have much of a significant impact. Gradual building of high pressure and loss of daytime heating allows for clearing into tonight, with renewed scattered coverage of cu around 5 kft Wednesday afternoon. Conditions today governed by higher amplitude troughing, as strong height falls commence south of a closed mid level low pivoting across Hudson Bay. Attendant cold front arrives locally early today, ushering a modestly cooler but notably much drier airmass for the afternoon period. Deeper layer stability held within prevailing mid level northwest flow and encroaching high pressure points to dry conditions with limited diurnal cu development Wednesday.
Temps will be a couple degrees warmer tomorrow than today with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid 50s.
257 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Current surface analysis shows the cold front that moved through this morning has now exited the area. Diurnal cumulus may develop again tomorrow with convective temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Plentiful sunshine and low dewpoints will lead to efficient heating with highs in the low 80s tomorrow.
We did skew overnight lows slightly on the cooler side of guidance due to radiational cooling expected from clear skies and calm winds.
A disturbance along the periphery of the upper ridge will continue to cross north over eastern Oregon today, generating isolated thunderstorm activity among the virga showers.
The orientation of the upper ridge over the western United States has effectively ended the Monsoon for the foreseeable future. Additionally, the strength of the high will lead to lower elevation heat concerns for the next several days.
240 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 A cold front has settled to our south while high pressure is building into portions of the middle Mississippi Valley today and tomorrow. A modest northwest breeze will provide some relief from the heat and humidity with highs only in the lower to mid 80s again tomorrow.
1248 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 (Today and tonight) Currently a weak cold front/surface boundary is stalled across central Kansas, but expected to be pushing into the Southern Plains later today.
Will continue to carry scattered POPs across much of the CWA for to- morrow even as the upper low (that helped with today's rains) moves further SW of the region.
1223 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Forecast is on track with minimal weather concerns or impacts today as high pressure and sunny skies dominate the Northern Plains. Clear skies are prevailing and ideal radiational conditions resulted in some locations cooling into the 40s this morning (most other s were in the low to mid 50s as originally forecast). Large scale ridging is continuing to build to the west while the upper low has transitioned further east over Ontario, with very dry/stable northwest flow over our CWA. As temperatures are slowly moderating aloft and good mixing is anticipated we should see highs in the 80s from the RRV to the west (70s to the east) and a few degrees warmer on Wednesday with even less cloud cover due to stronger influence of the building ridge.
339 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 A mid-level trough over the east coast is expected to lift out of the Mid-Atlantic the next couple days while a strong persistent ridge remains over the west. High pressure moves into the Midwest with the surface cold front passing through Western Kentucky this morning. Winds will be light as the high pressure moves through, with the ridge building into the Midwest.
122 PM MDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Western and central Wyoming continues to be influenced by upper- level high pressure over the western United States. Some cumulus are building over the higher terrain and Uinta County this afternoon, but it will be limited due to the dry layer RH. The pattern continues into Wednesday with the ridge axis extending from central Utah into western Montana. A couple of models are suggesting a low chance of showers over the eastern Bighorns Wednesday morning due to a very weak wave rounding the ridge and some moisture from the northern Plains.
/issued 1212 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022/ A mid level trough is swinging through the Ohio Valley. The trough axis has moved east of the Mid-South along with its associated lift. Short range models show a bit of a lull after this last bit of showers pass, then scattered showers will push through this afternoon as a cold front dives from the north into the region.
A mid level trough is pushing through the OH Valley this afternoon.
102 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022 In the wake of a cold front, high pressure over the Midwest will bring a drier, cooler northwest flow to the Ohio Valley.
1045 AM MDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Current upper air analysis and WV imagery shows ridge in place over the western CONUS with light northwest flow over the northern plains. A trough sits over the Great Lakes region with the upper low centered over central ON. A cold front drapes across MI and dips southwestward into MO and KS. Warmer and dry today with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. An upper ridge will dominate the western US through most of the week, bringing some light northwest flow over the northern Plains. The winds will remain fairly light under the ridge but the temperatures will rise through the week.
328 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Isolated showers along a upper trough axis and attending cold front will fade very quickly early this evening as this feature pivots off to the east. High pressure ridging will then build into the area in the wake of this system will relatively cool conditions persisting through mid-week.
Current surface analysis shows the cold front that moved through this morning has now exited the area. Diurnal cumulus is likely to develop again tomorrow with convective temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Plentiful sunshine and low dewpoints will lead to efficient heating with highs in the low 80s tomorrow.
An upper-level anticyclone currently positioned near the Four Corners Region is forecast to expand west and north across the WRN CONUS during the next seven days.
957 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022 In the wake of a cold front, high pressure over the Midwest will bring a drier, cooler northwest flow to the Ohio Valley.
741 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022 In the wake of a cold front, high pressure over the Midwest will bring a drier, cooler northwest flow to the Ohio Valley.
840 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 A cold front is on the northern doorstep to the Mid-South at this time and will move through the CWA during the overnight hours.
Aloft, the upper level (250mb) trough digging further southward across the Eastern U. with a building mid to upper level ridge over the Western U.
1 is beginning to better capture the thermal belt affect that will cause notably warm overnight lows at higher elevations, causing poorer humidity recoveries, and allowing for even warmer day-time highs. This has resulted in more warmth in the higher elevations in the more interior areas expected for the end of the week.
Temperatures are a bit warmer than previously forecast this evening, so they were raised slightly during the first half of the night. This will move east this evening with ridging and subsidence increasing from the west. This drier air aloft will arrive prior to the low-level cold front tonight. High pressure at the surface and aloft will result in a clear sky and light northerly winds on Wednesday. Northerly flow and drier air arriving from the north will result in cooler temperatures and low humidity for a beautiful late summer day.
/TW/NP/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Wednesday: An upper longwave trough will be moving across the eastern CONUS tonight into Wednesday. While the jet axis will remain well north of our area, height falls and a a wind shift aloft will likely signal the progress of the trough which will be just northeast of our area by midday Wednesday. Temperatures tonight fall to near seasonal averages in the lower 70s F. Highs will rise into the lower 90s F across the area Wednesday.
625 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 (This afternoon through Wednesday night) The swirl of the upper level low centered over the Permian Basin is evident on both radar and satellite this afternoon. Abundant moisture and the spin of the upper low are good ingredients for cold air funnels which at least one has been observed near Midland/Odessa. A cold front moved through the area last night bringing northeasterly winds and much cooler temperatures. The low will still be close enough to the CWA to cause more showers and storms to develop tomorrow. The low will drift off to the west so the best rain chances will be west of the Pecos River, particularly the Davis Mountains and Big Bend, though the entire area will have one more day of decent rain chances.
(Tonight) Analysis this evening shows a cold front moving into NW portions of the area, although the drier, continental air mass is lingering a bit behind.
Mean layer ridging straddles Florida, with weaknesses noted over the east-central Gulf and Cuba on water vapor loops. The low level anticyclone is centered near Bermuda, which supports gentle southeast breezes across the Florida Keys.
640 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 High pressure remains locked over the region. This should be more likely at the usual cool spots from Hettinger through Glen Ullin, but the more widespread possibility is there with many current observations showing dew points in the low 40s. This update nudged forecast lows down blending the lowest of available guidance with the NBM. We did skew overnight lows slightly on the cooler side of guidance due to radiational cooling expected from clear skies and calm winds.
High pressure remains locked over the region. This should be more likely at the usual cool spots from Hettinger through Glen Ullin, but the more widespread possibility is there with many current observations showing dew points in the low 40s. This update nudged forecast lows down blending the lowest of available guidance with the NBM. We did skew overnight lows slightly on the cooler side of guidance due to radiational cooling expected from clear skies and calm winds.
713 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Mostly dry conditions will persist for several days under high pressure.
Strong high pressure will be bringing a period of warm to hot temperatures and dry weather to northern and central Nevada. Main story will be strong high pressure building over the area through the short term and beyond. Highs will be in the 90s to the low 100s while overnight lows will be in the 50s and 60s.
A large 1022 MB high pressure was sprawled out over the northern and central Plains extending eastward into the MS River valley region. Tonight, high pressure will build eastward over the area resulting in clear skies and light/calm winds. Wednesday, high pressure will be over the region with blue skies and a lighter WNW breeze. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s along Highway 20 and east of the MS River, with upper 80s to around 90 in SE Iowa and NE Missouri.
524 PM MDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Western and central Wyoming continues to be influenced by upper- level high pressure over the western United States. Some cumulus are building over the higher terrain and Uinta County this afternoon, but it will be limited due to the dry layer RH. The pattern continues into Wednesday with the ridge axis extending from central Utah into western Montana. A couple of models are suggesting a low chance of showers over the eastern Bighorns Wednesday morning due to a very weak wave rounding the ridge and some moisture from the northern Plains.
Quiet weather prevails tonight as high pressure dominates the region. Temps will be a couple degrees warmer tomorrow than today with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid 50s.
932 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Little changes to the forecast as a cold front has cleared the area. Given the low winds and clear conditions, could see some patchy fog develop overnight, especially in areas that received rainfall earlier today. Somewhat cooler conditions expected tomorrow with plenty of sunshine.
/TW/ Tonight and Wednesday: An upper longwave trough will be moving across the eastern CONUS tonight into Wednesday. While the jet axis will remain well north of our area, height falls and a a wind shift aloft will likely signal the progress of the trough which will be just northeast of our area by midday Wednesday. Temperatures tonight fall to near seasonal averages in the lower 70s F. Highs will rise into the lower 90s F across the area Wednesday.
Isolated showers along a upper trough axis and attending cold front will fade very quickly early this evening as this feature pivots off to the east. High pressure ridging will then build into the area in the wake of this system will relatively cool conditions persisting through mid-week.
508 PM MDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Upper ridging out west will keep dry weather and clear skies over the area tonight. upper high on Wednesday sending a cold front through the area in the afternoon. Thunderstorms will develop along this front in the early afternoon for northeast areas and translate southward across the remainder of the plains through the evening as outflow boundaries reinforce the cold front. -KT Convection will shift off to the east and southeast Wednesday night as the upper trough departs.
847 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 A cold front has settled to our south while high pressure is building into portions of the middle Mississippi Valley today and tomorrow. A modest northwest breeze will provide some relief from the heat and humidity with highs only in the lower to mid 80s again tomorrow.
High pressure over the Atlantic will keep light south to southwest flow in place for the next few days, with the afternoon seabreeze increasing the onshore component each day.
626 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 A cold front has settled to our south while high pressure is building into portions of the middle Mississippi Valley today and tomorrow. A modest northwest breeze will provide some relief from the heat and humidity with highs only in the lower to mid 80s again tomorrow.
There is some very weak instability over the higher terrain and the Palmer Divide but only shallow cumulus have developed as they struggle to overcome an inversion aloft. The low temperatures will be well above normal as Denver may bottom out in the mid 60s. At the surface, a weak cold front will push across the northeast plains adding low level convergence for the initiation of storms. Forecast ensembles have remained quite consistent showing a dominating upper level high parking itself over the Great Basin. With the upper high to our west, northwest flow aloft across the High Plains will allow a couple of weak backdoor cold fronts to push across the area.
708 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Quiet weather prevails tonight as high pressure dominates the region. Temps will be a couple degrees warmer tomorrow than today with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid 50s.
521 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Mostly dry conditions will persist for several days under high pressure.
Quiet day today with ridging aloft over the western CONUS and high pressure spinning over the southwestern CONUS, leaving us in northwest flow aloft. High pressure at the surface today helping to keep winds fairly light. The high pressure and a warmer airmass coupled with clear skies is lending itself to highs in the 80s and lower 90s. Tomorrow mainly high pressure again at the surface with highs slightly warmer in the 90s.
801 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022 A cold front will work its way east across the area through tonight. High pressure builds into the region from the northwest Wednesday, bringing lower humidity. There are some lingering showers just ahead of the actual cold front over WV and into far western VA, but these showers are expected to fade as they pass over the mountains. The actual surface front will cross the forecast area overnight, skies clearing, but in may take until deeper mixing commences Wednesday to scour the low level moisture associated with the boundary layer.
Hot temperatures and dry conditions will continue across most of the region into the Labor Day weekend as a dome of high pressure settles over the southwest. Subsidence inversion from our upper air sounding continues to strengthen under building ridge. Unseasonably hot through the holiday weekend as massive ridge stays camped out over the Great Basin. Temperatures will run several degrees above normal this afternoon as a dome of high pressure builds over the southwest.
447 PM MDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Water vapor imagery shows strong ridging across the western CONUS, and west/northwest flow over the northern Great Plains. Upper ridge will remain nearly stationary through the rest of the week, with continued dry weather and above average temperatures. Temps will be slightly warmer than today, reaching up to the mid 90s in some spots.
1229 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022 High pressure will filter into the area behind a cold front.
The reprieve from the rain will be short lived as returning mid level moisture along with a developing upper level trof over southern Oklahoma and Arkansas will prove very favorable for the return of widespread daily convection to end the week.
343 AM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022 Mostly dry conditions will persist into the weekend under high pressure.
947 PM MDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Upper ridging out west will keep dry weather and clear skies over the area tonight. upper high on Wednesday sending a cold front through the area in the afternoon. Thunderstorms will develop along this front in the early afternoon for northeast areas and translate southward across the remainder of the plains through the evening as outflow boundaries reinforce the cold front. -KT Convection will shift off to the east and southeast Wednesday night as the upper trough departs. Thursday will be slightly cooler with increasing southerly surface flow through the afternoon.
1155 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Mostly dry conditions will persist into the weekend under high pressure. for several days under high pressure.