Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
If the clouds hang on long enough, they could even keep temperatures a little cooler than forecast. Temperatures are still expected to be hot today, mid 90s to near 104, as the upper high remains just to our west. Outflow boundaries remain across the region and will aid with development of additional convection again this afternoon and evening across the FA as another weakness moves around the upper high. Additional convection may come from the higher terrain of NM as the region remains under northerly to north-northwesterly flow aloft.
/issued 325 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020/ A cold front is currently pushing through north Mississippi at this hour. Temperatures will fall into the lower 60s areawide tomorrow morning as cool Canadian high pressure builds into the region.
There is a minor midlevel short wave with an associated sfc cold front draped across our north.
Otherwise started a mention of VCTS Monday morning for stations farther south as weak cold front and upper disturbance moves through. /issued 243 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020/ (Tonight and Monday) An upper level ridge will remain over the Desert Southwest through Monday. SPC has our region in a Marginal Risk for severe weather due to the high amounts of instability and dry-low layer, which could result in damaging wind gusts. Expect lows tonight in the low 70s. With weakening of the 850 mb thermal ridge expected and a cooler northeasterly flow, expect Monday highs to be several degrees cooler (92-98 F). For the rest of week, a strong upper level high pressure ridge(596 to 600 DM heights) will be located over the western CONUS. Expect upper level northerly flow on the east side of the ridge over West Central Texas.
The Atlantic ridge axis will remain shunted south/east of the area as a weak, quasi-stationary, frontal boundary remains draped across the Gulf Coast States. An upper trough will lie across north FL and the northern Gulf with models indicating some "cooling" aloft at 500 mb with temps potentially in the -7C to -8C range during the afternoon. Cooler aloft as well with some mid-level energy traversing the peninsula during the afternoon.
458 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Forecast remains largely on track with expansive dome of high pressure firmly entrenched over the SW US. Upper level ridge axis extends through the Rockies up into western Canada. Dry, west-northwest flow will persist through much of the week as western ridge lingers. With the ridge axis remaining off to our west, it's expected that embedded waves will round the top of the ridge and yield chances for isolated storms each day this week. Expect most likely areas for an isolated storm or two to be across the higher terrain in Wyoming and the Black Hills.
Updated with a discussion for the 17/00Z TAFs VFR conditions will prevail through the PD as high pressure settles over the region following the FROPA earlier Sun afternoon. As high pressure becomes centered over the state Mon, winds will be VRB, with Wrly motion over Nrn AR, and N/Erly motion for terminals along and south of I40.
500 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020 A pretty typical late summer flow pattern is in place across the US, with mid/upper level ridging centered across the western US and a relatively quiet northwest flow pattern across the Midwest. Over the next 24 hours, predominantly tranquil weather will continue with little change in the upper flow pattern and surface ridging approaching from the northern plains. Some recent high res models have indicated a few showers later on overnight into WI, so have brought low chance north and eastward, but the highest likelihood looks to be across northeast IA.
722 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Thunderstorm chances will remain at more typical levels through Monday, then increase through the week as an upper level trough becomes well established.
825 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Upper ridge was building strong over the central and northern Rockies. Monsoon moisture was getting wrapped up in the ridge and flowing into western Montana. As with the low couple of nights, have dropped mins a couple of degrees over the west to account for light winds and low dewpoints.
High pressure will settle in over the region, resulting in slightly more pleasant seasonable conditions.
Left the higher PoPs over the western half of the CWA to account for this. Rua A short wave dropping down between the southwest US upper level ridge and the east coast trough, will help push a weak surface frontal boundary into and though the forecast area tonight. With the high instability levels, some of the storms could become rather robust, with profiles suggesting strong downburst and outflow winds.
Otherwise, expect light n to nely winds in the wake of a rare summer cold front to continue through the pd. Different story expected on Monday and Monday night with dry high pressure becoming better established across the region. Expect high temperatures in the lower 90s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to near 70.
Temperatures today started to rise as high pressure built over the Great Basin, with a few daily records falling this afternoon, including at Bryce Canyon, Cedar City, Kanab and Ogden.
Scattered thunderstorm activity is expected this afternoon and evening along the periphery of this ridge, and perhaps more importantly to this area will be a focus of some low level convergence across central and eastern Nebraska. The upstream ridge (currently located over the northern Plains) will build southward through the day on Monday, which will introduce a weak boundary into the area. The highest PoPs will be across northeastern MO, into EC MO, a little closer to the stronger mid level jet. This frontal intrusion will reset the mechanism for the weather across the area, with a formidable ridge remaining in place over the upper midwest, and the immediate forecast area through the bulk of the upcoming week. Going into tomorrow morning, the region finds itself between two high pressure systems.
1015 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Expect a day or two of drier conditions as high pressure builds across the area. Mid level troughing will remain in place across the Eastern U.
559 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020 In the wake of yesterday's cold front clear skies, low dewpoints, and below normal temperatures have made it a phenomenal summer day across our CWA. The high responsible for much of today's astonishingly nice weather will shift a bit to the southeast over the afternoon and evening, and the surface flow will back to the west by the evening in response. This westerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front will keep temperatures 3-5 degrees warmer tonight than last night, with lows in the low to mid 60s. Behind the front temperatures will cool once more into the low to mid 60s Monday night.
Strong high pressure aloft centered over the Great Basin will maintain hot temperatures and dry conditions across the region through midweek.
642 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Much drier today with mid day dewpoints in the 50s and pleasant with temperatures in the low to mid 80s. A weak cold front will move through late in the day, possibly bringing some chances for rain. Weak low pressure and a trough will increase west to northwest winds somewhat late in the period.
As high pressure slides east of the CWA, winds will back to the west-southwest overnight. Latest guidance hints at slightly-higher thunderstorm potential in western Illinois and eastern Missouri as a cold front drapes south tomorrow afternoon. MRB In the wake of yesterday's cold front clear skies, low dewpoints, and below normal temperatures have made it a phenomenal summer day across our CWA. The high responsible for much of today's astonishingly nice weather will shift a bit to the southeast over the afternoon and evening, and the surface flow will back to the west by the evening in response. This westerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front will keep temperatures 3-5 degrees warmer tonight than last night, with lows in the low to mid 60s. Behind the front temperatures will cool once more into the low to mid 60s Monday night.
745 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Expect a day or two of drier conditions as high pressure builds across the area. A rare August cold front is making its way off the coast, helping sustain a line of showers and embedded thunderstorms. Mid level troughing will remain in place across the Eastern U.
Upper level flow will become more northerly throughout the week as a large upper level ridge spins over the western United States. Light SE winds to begin the TAF period this evening, will trend light and variable, and then NWly toward morning, as a weak cold front slides through the airports. Behind the cold front daylight Monday, a light NEly wind will prevail with no convection expected.
The air across eastern parts of the forecasta area is very moist with dew points in the low to mid 70s. Forecast soundings show steep mid level lapse rates, and as a result instability will be on the higher side today.
A weak cold front will ooze into the area over the next 24 hours, barely perceptible save for a wind shift and a couple of degrees of cooling. /issued 201 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020/ The chance of rain is increasing for this afternoon and Monday with cooler temperatures behind a weak cold front. There is also a weak cold front moving south across the TX Panhandle and Oklahoma. Storms will also form along the cold front east of Amarillo and move southwest within the flow aloft. More showers and storms are possible Monday as the cold front sinks further into the region. Areas that see substantial rain today or tonight may see even cooler temperatures. The upper ridge to our west will amplify by midweek keeping northerly flow aloft across the area.
Surface analysis depicts a very weak pressure pattern across our area, with the subtropical ridge over the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico split by a weak thermal trough over the Florida peninsula. Aloft, the Keys lie at the western end of a strong lower to mid level ridge over the western Atlantic and the Bahamas, while a persistent upper level low spinning over central Cuba is having no appreciable impact on the sensible weather for the Keys. The ridging and dry air aloft should keep coverage of any such redevelopment low.
The dominant western H5 ridge will generally remain centered over SW UT/Eastern NV through the remainder of the upcoming week. Pacific moisture will continue to get drawn around the ridge, dropping across the state.
A frontal boundary has cleared the area and is ushering in cooler and drier air.
944 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Drier and cooler conditions will prevail overnight. /issued 325 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020/ A cold front is currently pushing through north Mississippi at this hour. Temperatures will fall into the lower 60s areawide tomorrow morning as cool Canadian high pressure builds into the region.
954 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020 The thicker area of high clouds has shifted a bit east this evening as the 500 mb heights rise and trough moves east. CAMs are still showing light showers/weak thunderstorm activity possibly developing late this afternoon ending before sunset, but considering the lower instability (ML CAPE less than 250 J/KG) and less organized forcing, combing with higher mixed layers lowers confidence in more that very light amounts where this would track. Loss of daytime heating should help stabilize the low levels and activity should fall apart. Ridging continues to amplify/shift east tonight into Monday with dry weather favored. Regarding temperatures: Lingering cooler air mass and good radiational conditions should support 50s for most with cooler spots in the upper 40s tonight.
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon/evening along a weak cold front moving south through the area late this afternoon into the evening evening. The region remains in persistent northwesterly flow aloft with a strong ridge of high pressure to our west and persistent troughing to our east. At the surface, high pressure remains centered over central Missouri with southerly low-level return flow extending across central/western KS and Neb. Within this low- level return flow resides a moist airmass with 850mb dewpoints near 14-15C in central Nebraska contributing to an increase in instability to our west and more specifically, across northeastern Nebraska nearest to the surface front where a narrow axis of 65-70F surface dewpoints have pooled.
Waves of low pressure may develop around the boundary, bringing unsettled conditions through mid-week.
For today, look for temperatures to warm into the upper 80s in most locations, with a few spots touching the low 90s. This will keep dry and slightly cooler than normal temperatures going with little to no rain chances through the next 7 days.
1149 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Much drier today with mid day dewpoints in the 50s and pleasant with temperatures in the low to mid 80s. A weak cold front will move through late in the day, possibly bringing some chances for rain.
314 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2020 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected today, mainly north of Pittsburgh, with a weak crossing cold front. Generally dry and seasonable weather is then expected through much of the week under high pressure.
A strong 600dm 500mb ridge will be parked over the western U. S, while downstream troughing exists across the eastern CONUS. After a cooler night tonight in the low to mid 60s, temperatures will rebound into the upper 80s to around 90 on Monday. A reinforcing short of cooler air arrives for Tuesday, with highs only in the lower half of the 80s. A strong upper high pressure center will remain in place over the desert southwest and that will keep troughing in our vicinity. Initially, the primary trough line will be just southeast of the four state region and our entire region will remain dry.
The upper high over the Four Corners region will continue to dominate into the weekend. Even with that the forecast will remain mostly on the dry side as rain chances will depend on weaknesses rotating around the upper high in addition to a surface lifting mechanism.
The H850 trough and warm air advection causing the convection will shift south of the region later this evening while another weak "backdoor" boundary drops south southwest into northeast Iowa and then heads south overnight. This will result in cooler temperatures over the north/northeast while the far south continues milder overnight. Lows tonight will drop to the upper 50s to 60 north and in the lower to mid 60s in the south. Some clouds will linger into early Monday morning before high pressure over Minnesota drops south into southern Minnesota by 00z Tuesday. Highs Monday will be about 5 degrees cooler than today with the clouds and southward advection of cooler air.
Current temps range from the mid 60s to a few readings in the lower 70s. Today is looking tranquil as weak high pressure controls our weather. Cape to cap ratios are minuscule and subsidence in the lower and mid levels shall prevail. Drier and slightly cooler air will follow for Tues nt and into Wed. Look for highs in the lower to mid 80s with 60s for dewpoints. In the ext fcst, still looking at a persistent troughing pattern through the period. Despite the troughing, thermal troughing intensity lags a bit and 850 mb temps are still chiming in at around 16C or so. However, model dewpoint depressions do support the relatively drier air attempting to work into the lower levels.
Strong upper level ridge over the Great Basin is bringing hot temperatures to portions of southern Idaho and SW Oregon. Extensive cloud cover for most of the morning has kept temperatures cooler from Rome, OR to Stanley, ID.
145 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2020 Thunderstorm chances return to typical mid-August levels today through Tuesday, then increase through the rest of the week as an upper level trough becomes well established. Continued dry advection pushes residual moisture out of the higher terrain on Monday, but there is some rebound in instability in piedmont areas with variable to southerly surface winds.
Have made a few updates through the evening, mainly to POPs as the storms evolved through the evening, but temperatures and dewpoints were adjusted downward as well in areas where the much cooler thunderstorm outflow areas. Finally, upslope flow across the High Plains is resulting in convection in the Texas panhandle.
The surface cold front is just behind these showers, with lower dewpoints behind it that should result in less fog than last night. Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 67 89 67 88 / 0 0 10 10 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 65 86 65 86 / 10 0 20 10 60 Oak Ridge, TN 87 66 85 65 87 / 0 0 20 10 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 60 83 62 83 / 10 0 20 10 60.
403 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2020 A weak trough of low pressure will swing through the area tonight through Monday, resulting in a few showers and isolated thunderstorms. Dry and quiet weather returns for the middle of the week as high pressure drifts over the region. A trough will slide through the eastern border of our forecast area early this morning with scattered showers. Thereafter, clouds will begin to break during the late morning as a cold front approaches from the west. Clearing skies late Tuesday night with cool high pressure building into the region.
Aloft, a trough extending into the region from the Canada will provide some mid to upper level support for an unsettled pattern to kick off the week. Temperatures will again reach into the lower to mid 90s today with heat index values reaching into the triple digits. For Tuesday, the pattern remains similar with light flow but the ridge axis may shift enough to allow a growing south-southwesterly flow to spread across the area. Temperatures will remain in the lower to mid 90s on Tuesday as well.
Canadian high pressure will back into wrn and ncntl Nebraska tonight and Monday and then move east Monday night with return moisture developing. A warm front stretching north and south across wrn Nebraska will accompany the moisture return. The models are generally quiet in terms of thunderstorm development along the warm front but the NAMnest suggested isolated showers Monday night and the NAM12 shows about 1000J/KG of elevated CAPE which could support thunderstorm development. This forecast presents temperatures that are slightly warmer during the day and cooler at night than the short term model blend. The warm front developing across western and north central Nebraska Monday night will continue to drift east and could be the focus for thunderstorm development Tuesday evening. A very strong subtropical ridge across the southwest U.
416 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2020 A weak trough of low pressure will swing through the area tonight through Monday, resulting in a few showers and isolated thunderstorms. Dry and quiet weather returns for the middle of the week as high pressure drifts over the region. A trough will slide through the eastern border of our forecast area early this morning with scattered showers. Thereafter, clouds will begin to break during the late morning as a cold front approaches from the west. Clearing skies late Tuesday night with cool high pressure building into the region.
133 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2020 Scattered showers are expected with and behind a cold front this evening and Monday. Isolated showers continue to cross the region with a crossing cold front. Advancing dry air under an elongated upper-level trough will keep weather quiet and near the climatological average Tuesday.
Current temps range from the mid 60s to a few readings in the lower 70s. Today is looking tranquil as weak high pressure controls our weather. Cape to cap ratios are minuscule and subsidence in the lower and mid levels shall prevail. Drier and slightly cooler air will follow for Tues nt and into Wed. Look for highs in the lower to mid 80s with 60s for dewpoints. In the ext fcst, still looking at a persistent troughing pattern through the period. Despite the troughing, thermal troughing intensity lags a bit and 850 mb temps are still chiming in at around 16C or so.
Scattered thunderstorm activity is expected this afternoon and evening along the periphery of this ridge, and perhaps more importantly to this area will be a focus of some low level convergence across central and eastern Nebraska. The upstream ridge (currently located over the northern Plains) will build southward through the day on Monday, which will introduce a weak boundary into the area. The highest PoPs will be across northeastern MO, into EC MO, a little closer to the stronger mid level jet. This frontal intrusion will reset the mechanism for the weather across the area, with a formidable ridge remaining in place over the upper midwest, and the immediate forecast area through the bulk of the upcoming week. Tomorrow, the area finds itself between two high pressure systems resulting in accelerated winds around 10-12kts.
1038 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Forecast remains largely on track with expansive dome of high pressure firmly entrenched over the SW US. Upper level ridge axis extends through the Rockies up into western Canada. Dry, west-northwest flow will persist through much of the week as western ridge lingers. With the ridge axis remaining off to our west, it's expected that embedded waves will round the top of the ridge and yield chances for isolated storms each day this week. Expect most likely areas for an isolated storm or two to be across the higher terrain in Wyoming and the Black Hills.
Today Through Tuesday Night An upper ridge is centered over Utah will continue to provide northerly flow over the Plains. This ridge will remain stationary through Tuesday and the pattern will remain the same over Arkansas.
/issued 944 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020/ Drier and cooler conditions will prevail overnight. /issued 325 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020/ A cold front is currently pushing through north Mississippi at this hour. Temperatures will fall into the lower 60s areawide tomorrow morning as cool Canadian high pressure builds into the region.
129 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2020 Expect a day or two of drier conditions as high pressure builds across the area. Mid level troughing will remain in place across the Eastern U.
230 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2020 Will be under a northerly flow through the short term period on the eastern periphery of a large ridge centered over the Great Basin which is not going to move at all.
A somewhat tricky forecast for South Texas through the short term period as the area remains situated between an upper level ridge to the west and a trough deepening across the east. Temperatures on Tuesday may run a few degrees cooler than today.
Upper pattern remains quite similar to the past several days with north-northwest flow though no apparent waves downstream of the ridge axis over the western states.
Otherwise started a mention of VCTS Monday morning for stations farther south as weak cold front and upper disturbance moves through. /issued 243 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020/ (Tonight and Monday) An upper level ridge will remain over the Desert Southwest through Monday. SPC has our region in a Marginal Risk for severe weather due to the high amounts of instability and dry-low layer, which could result in damaging wind gusts. Expect lows tonight in the low 70s. With weakening of the 850 mb thermal ridge expected and a cooler northeasterly flow, expect Monday highs to be several degrees cooler (92-98 F).
With the cooler 850/925 temps working in tonight across the lake could see some lake clouds work into the area. Quiet conditions expected Tuesday with high pressure expanding across WI from Iowa and Minnesota as the day wears on.
We need to get the rain today because an upper high to the west will build back over West Texas this week that will reduce rain chances once again. Only the higher elevations and adjacent plains from the Davis Mountains to the Guadalupe Mountains will have a chance for rain after today as subsidence increases.
1124 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Scattered showers are expected with and behind a cold front this evening and Monday. Isolated showers continue to cross the region with a crossing cold front. Advancing dry air under an elongated upper-level trough will keep weather quiet and near the climatological average Tuesday.