Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1038 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 High pressure over our forecast area will exit across New England through tonight. High pressure will then generally remain in control of our weather into the start of the weekend.
Meanwhile low level southwest flow will tap into the fringes of heat associated with a scorching upper ridge parked over the Desert Southwest. Our area does not look slated to turn hot per se (highs of mid 80s to eventually some low 90s), but persistent warm air advection will provide a stretch of warmer than normal, slightly muggier conditions that will leave us more prone to periodic small shower/storm chances as occasional weak forcing traverses the region. Warmer and a tad humid for Friday with highs in the 80s for the entire area.
Water vapor imagery shows the mid/upper-level trof axis remaining in place over swrn MS/sern LA. Rain chances increase later this afternoon as the mid/upper-level trof continues drifting back wwd toward the forecast area while the sfc boundary lifts nwd just onshore. best POPs remain across the sern zones where moisture is a little better, plus proximity to the low aloft. Friday looks like a general repeat of today, albeit with maybe a tad lower POPs as the trof begins to weaken.
928 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 The Florida peninsula remains pinned between high pressure ridging over southern Florida and troughing extending southward through the central Gulf of Mexico. Interaction between high pressure over southern Florida and a trough of low pressure extending through the central Gulf of Mexico continues to produce south-southwest winds over the gulf waters for the next couple of days. The ridge lifts north by late Friday and into the weekend allowing for the winds to shift to the east- southeast.
expect some convection to initially develop across the high plains and spread southeastward. the flow aloft begins to change as the upper level ridge shifts eastward.
High pressure will be in control of the area today. but very little if any diurnal convection is anticipated this afternoon with subsidence in the wake of a weak S/WV trof. S/WV trof tracking along the Nrn periphery of ridging aloft will help force some convection that will weaken with time. SW flow in the low to mid levels and increasing WAA will support temps warming well into the 80s S of any advancing front. A weak upper trough centered across the Mississippi Valley will weaken and be replaced by rising heights and zonal flow. Increasing cloud cover and warmer temps will keep any valley fog less widespread tonight. High pressure in control of the coastal waters with winds and seas remaining below SCA thresholds.
950 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 High pressure over Pennsylvania this morning will move off the southern New England coast tonight. Low pressure approaches the area Friday and passes north of the region over the weekend.
637 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 High pressure will allow for dry conditions today. The region will experience another day with below normal temperatures and dewpoints in the 50s, as high pressure stretches from the Ohio Valley to New England. Some scattered high clouds will drift across the region today ahead of a deep H5 trof over the Mississippi Valley. Tonight, the high will begin to retreat to the east. Meanwhile additional upper level moisture will lift north as the upper trof develops a closed low down over Louisiana. Lows tonight will be a few degrees warmer, ranging from the upper 50s in the northwest to the lower 60s in nrn KY. This will provide some weak upper support as the low level instability increases. High temperatures will continue their warming trend, pushing into the lower to mid 80s.
The Excessive Heat Warnings remain in effect for the lower elevations of northern Arizona through this evening.
The overall upr lvl pattern has rmnd stagnant, with a persistent rdg acrs the Wrn States, and an elongated upr trof situated ovr the MS River Valley. There have been an incrs in clouds acrs Ern AR overnight, as moisture rotates arnd the trof. With the aforementioned upr trof expected to meander in the region, cannot rule out some diurnally driven convection ovr the Ern part of the FA. Kept PoPs in the chc category as the primary lift/ instability axis wl be situated on the Ern side of the trof axis.
Cloud cover sneaking into the area should mitigate more widespread fog this morning ahead of the upper low.
High pressure will also be meandering around northern Arizona through the weekend putting southeast Arizona in favorable easterly flow aloft.
Tightening mid level gradient has subsequently increased mid/upper winds this morning, as the Atlantic ridge presses closer to the FL peninsula and little shift in the position of the mid level trough down the Gulf of Mexico. Morning sounding from XMR a bit warmer aloft than this time yesterday, but may not have much of a hindrance in convective development today. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s, lows in the low/mid 70s.
Stout upper level ridging continues across the western CONUS and in response, deep troughing is occuring across much of the southeast.
/issued 239 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020/ A large upper level high pressure area centered near the four corners region will move little the next several days and will be the main weather influence across west Texas and southeast New Mexico.
Lower dewpoints upstream indicate a potentially drier day, so now looking at humidities getting down to the mid teens before the cold front moves through. Vertz Upper level ridge is getting knocked down a little at a time by upper level disturbances. One of these waves is moving through early this morning, another will push through late morning, and a strong wave moves into western zones late this afternoon and moves across the area tonight pushing a cold front through. Tonights disturbance and associated cold front will clear the area early Friday morning with drier air building in behind it as it flattens out the upper ridge. Cooler air aloft will translate to high temperatures closer to normal for this time of year in the upper 80s to lower 90s with a fresh northwesterly breeze in the afternoon.
345 AM MDT Thu Aug 20 2020 The general weather pattern over the next 24-48 hours is likely to remain characterized by broad upper-level ridging over much of the western CONUS. Today should feature the best chance for widespread precipitation as a substantial mid- level short wave is progged to traverse the edge of the ridge this afternoon. MRGL risk remains in place from SPC with a dry boundary layer likely to promote strong outflow wind gusts, especially with LCLs well above the freezing level.
653 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 High pressure over our forecast area will exit across New England through tonight. High pressure will then generally remain in control of our weather into the start of the weekend.
702 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 High pressure will settle south of the region with return south to southwest flow increasing today (especially in best gradient flow KFNT/KMBS). Otherwise, mid deck of clouds aoa 10kft will have trouble settling south into upper ridging with perhaps a period of isolated diurnal cumulus this afternoon.
We'll see upper level flow remain out of the west and southwest for the majority of the day with some of the low level winds out of the northwest during the afternoon. Eventually, a strong short wave and cold front will swing through the area during Friday. The flow then turns offshore west of the Cascades as a thermal trough builds along the coast.
Temperatures today will be a little cooler in most locations, though still well above normal. Temperatures today will be a little cooler in most locations, though still well above normal. Trough energy continues to approach from the Pacific NW, which will push the recent ridge further to the SE. The result will be slightly cooler (though still well above normal high temperatures) today and Friday.
A very weak trough swings through the area today suppressing the Great Basin ridge ever so slightly southward for the next few days. As we move into the weekend, temperatures look to warm once again as H5 heights begin to rise again as the ridge across the Great Basin amplifies a bit more.
A strong high pressure ridge will bring continued dry weather today and for most of central Indiana on Friday.
A cold front is visible on satellite imagery and surface pressure fields early this morning, strewn across eastern Washington and central Oregon.
941 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 High pressure will allow for dry conditions today. Tonight, the high will begin to retreat to the east. Meanwhile additional upper level moisture will lift north as the upper trof develops a closed low down over Louisiana. Lows tonight will be a few degrees warmer, ranging from the upper 50s in the northwest to the lower 60s in nrn KY. This will provide some weak upper support as the low level instability increases. High temperatures will continue their warming trend, pushing into the lower to mid 80s.
Most of the short term will feature another pesky, slow moving mid level trof which will start off near the northern Gulf Coast today, then nudge it way north toward the TN/OH Valley region with time. For today, a good portion of the region will be dry, with the trof off well to the south.
/Issued 240 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020/ Quiet/seasonally mild weather will continue, with the forecast area remaining in northerly flow aloft between the western states ridge and MS valley trof.
This will result in afternoon temperatures just a touch cooler than today.
645 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020 Upper ridge will remain centered over the southwest CONUS with modest northerly flow aloft across the Plains the next few days.
613 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020 High pressure will continue to provide pleasant summer days the rest of this week.
In its wake clearing skies will again allow temps to warm into the low 90s in E ND and upper 80s valley and mid 80s NW MN.
around an upper level high pressure area centered over the Arizona/New Mexico border. High temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 90s with low temperatures in the low to mid 60s. High temperatures continue in the low to mid 90s with low temperatures in the 60 to 65 degree range.
Used a blend of the warmer guidance to account for early filtered sunshine, a deep mixed layer, and weak WAA at H85 under southerly flow. The jet quickly weakens when a trough ejects off the higher terrain. Made little change to forecast min temps in the lower 60s west and mid 60s east. Again, depending on cloud cover, H85 temps in the mid 20s C should translate to highs in the lower 90s regionwide.
A slight cooling trend will continue across northwest California through Friday as the influence of an upper trough shunts a midlevel high eastward.
Temperatures today will be a little cooler in most locations, though still well above normal. Trough energy continues to approach from the Pacific NW, which will push the recent ridge further to the SE. The result will be slightly cooler (though still well above normal high temperatures) today and Friday.
07Z water vapor imagery continues to show a blocking pattern with high pressure centered over the four corners region. Meanwhile upper troughs over the lower MS river valley and the Gulf of Alaska have not moved much. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Great Lakes continued to ridge into eastern KS. Highs today should be about the same or a degree or two warmer than yesterday's. The blocking pattern is progged to persist through the weekend.
646 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 High pressure will bring in quiet and fall-like weather today.
A large area of low pressure aloft, spinning across Gulf Coast states, will provide the lift and flux of low level moisture needed to spark showers and storms across the area. This same scenario will be in place on Friday as well, but we should see higher rain chances and more extensive coverage of showers and storms, as the low pressure mentioned earlier inches a bit further north on Friday. Extensive cloud cover and repeated rounds of afternoon and evening precipitation should help keep temperatures below normal to finish out the week, along with northeasterly and easterly winds north of the low. We can expect highs today in the lower 80s, and in the upper 70s to lower 80s on Friday. Tonights lows should be quite comfortable, with min readings in the low to mid 60s on tap.
723 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 Dry and seasonable weather is expected today under high pressure. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected south of Pittsburgh Friday, and for the rest of the area over the weekend, with a crossing trough of low pressure. High pressure should maintain dry weather and mostly clear skies today.
Temperatures are slowly expected to moderate as 850-hPa temperatures climb back above +15C and the aforementioned ridge slowly weakens. However, the closed midlevel low across the lower Mississippi Valley is forecast to be a bit slower to move northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley.
530 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 Dry and seasonable weather is expected today under high pressure. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected south of Pittsburgh Friday, and for the rest of the area over the weekend, with a crossing trough of low pressure. High pressure should maintain dry weather and mostly clear skies today.
614 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 High pressure centered along the New York, Pennsylvania border this morning will maintain and dry weather through Friday with temperatures trending above average into the weekend. High pressure and associated dry air mass will bring mainly clear skies and light wind overnight.
The model spreads are widely varying due in large part to when it develops and then where it responds to the upper trough over the Lower Mississippi Valley before lifting out and the residual shear axis over TX all as the upper ridging in the Atlantic edges westward.
Despite the presence of a broad, elongated mid-level low pressure zone over the Lower MS Valley, widespread convection over S AL and the N Gulf have inhibited convection locally (likely the combination of debris cirrus and somewhat-limited moisture). Also not helping: cooler-than- normal temperatures, which as of 19Z are only in the mid 80s, with dewpoints in the mid 60s. The weak trough/shear zone/low pressure area will remain parked over the area heading into the weekend.
Upper trough over the MS valley is in place but amplification expected to hold off until tomorrow. Increased southerly flow in low levels and proximity to upper level low position will result in VCSH most locations 21/03Z-21/11Z, with potential of sct/numerous shwrs/tstms developing thru 21/18Z.
With the increasing moisture, high temperatures will be cooler and below excessive heat criteria.
While this is not as low as last night, tonight's lows are about 2-5 degrees cooler than normal. River fog has been observed the past couple nights along the mainstem rivers, but with warmer temperatures overnight there is some uncertainty as to whether it will form again tonight. As the low-level ridge weakens and shifts eastward overnight flow will turn southwesterly, advecting warm air into the region and moderating temperatures. The 850 temperatures will warm into the mid teens by Friday afternoon, and so Friday's high will be a couple degrees warmer than today with highs in the mid 80s.
1211 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020 (Today and tonight) An area of showers and a few thunderstorms over the eastern TX panhandle and western OK is expected to drift slowly south around the eastern edge of the large upper high over the western U. Plentiful mid-level moisture moving south through the high plains will keep more high and mid cloud over western OK than areas farther east, but by afternoon, skies are expected to clear sufficiently for temperatures in the mid and upper 90s.
WV imagery shows the ridge centered over ern AZ this afternoon, maintaining meridional flow over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Friday, convection looks confined to the higher terrain during the day. Over the weekend, the ridge will meander NE, settling over the Four Corners by 00Z Mon, and leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico high and dry into the extended. Regarding temperatures, Fri still looks to be the hottest day, w/probably a few Heat Advisories needed for the higher elevations. Thicknesses drop off over the weekend as the ridge moves to the Four Corners, w/most locations seeing highs below the century mark by Mon afternoon. Temps should remain above-normal, but cooler than they have been lately, into the extended.
What a difference from yesterday! Temperatures have already climbed warmer than some of the highs from yesterday! The Mid-South remains in a broad scale upper trough today. Broad upper troughing will continue to remain over the Mid-South for the next several days. However, by the afternoon cloud cover and rain chances will increase with the best chance for rain and storms East of the MS River given placement relative to troughing. Given enhanced southwest flow aloft and cooler temperatures aloft some organized convection, damaging winds and small hail are possible this afternoon.
Weak cold front continuing across Southeast Oregon this morning and will move across Southwest Idaho by early afternoon.
234 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020 High pressure will dominate the region through the weekend. Low pressure over the southeast U.
Low temperatures tonight will be in the 70s inland and in the low 80s along the coastal regions. With the upper level trough still lingering over the Lower MS Valley, a very similar weather pattern is to be expected Friday. [Friday Night through Thursday] Initially Friday night light southerly flow will be in place with an increase in moisture in the lower levels and what could be a scattering of showers and thunderstorms to the west and northwest of the area that could be drifting southeastward and probably weakening.
226 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020 Upper trough situated over the MS valley this afternoon. Low level 850 mb trough axis extends northeast across the mid state with a decent cyclonic flow but weak directional convergence. The upper trough will feature more of a closed low on Friday as it works slowly northward.
201 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020 (Issued 201 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020) Tonight through Friday night: Quiet weather will continue through Friday as high pressure centered to the southeast slowly pulls away.
Satellite imagery shows an upper level jet streak moving toward the region on the west side of the upper trough axis from Louisiana into the northwest Gulf of Mexico.
1107 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 High pressure centered along the New York-Pennsylvania border will maintain and dry weather through Friday with temperatures trending above average into the weekend. After the coldest morning in about 2 months in many areas of CPA (34F at Kane), expect abundant sunshine and pleasant conditions for the rest of today with highs trending a few degrees warmer than yesterday. There is decent agreement among medium range guidance that the remnants of cut off upper low over the southern Miss Valley will drift northeast into the Ohio Valley/Mid Atlantic by the weekend.
339 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 High pressure centered over northern Pennsylvania will continue to move slowly east and then off the New England Coast overnight. However a ridge of high pressure will persist across the region into the weekend.
Meanwhile aloft, the area will be in the col region of strong southwest ridging, troughing over eastern Canada, and a weak mid- upper low lifting north from the Gulf Coast.
137 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 High pressure over our forecast area will exit across New England through tonight. High pressure will then generally remain in control of our weather into the start of the weekend.
1241 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020 Upper ridge will remain centered over the southwest CONUS with modest northerly flow aloft across the Plains the next few days.
1207 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 High pressure centered along the New York-Pennsylvania border will maintain and dry weather through Friday with temperatures trending above average into the weekend. After the coldest morning in about 2 months in many areas of CPA (34F at Kane), expect abundant sunshine and pleasant conditions for the rest of today with highs trending a few degrees warmer than yesterday. There is decent agreement among medium range guidance that the remnants of upper-level low pres over the Lower Miss Valley will drift northeastward and over the Ohio Valley by this weekend.
119 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 VFR flying conditions will continue to prevail through the entire period with broad high pressure maintaining a strong influence across the region. Return southwest flow on the western flank of the high will occasionally gust 10-20 knots this afternoon, strongest at KFNT and KMBS.
236 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020 Upper level high pressure remains to the west of the forecast area which will maintain northerly flow across the region today.
209 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 Upper level ridging continues to ridge through the Florida Straits while upper level troughing extends south through the Mississippi River Valley and into the central Gulf of Mexico. The troughing digs further south by early Friday morning as a closed low develops in the base of the trough over MS on Friday.
129 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 High pressure centered along the New York-Pennsylvania border will maintain and dry weather through Friday with temperatures trending above average into the weekend. After the coldest morning in about 2 months in many areas of CPA (34F at Kane), expect abundant sunshine and pleasant conditions for the rest of today with highs trending a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Variable clouds with increasing low level moisture Friday night will support warmer min temps in the mid 50s north to mid 60s in the southeast.
The hot and muggy conditions remain in place, but there may be a slightly better trigger moving in, in the form of a cold front. However this cold front looks pretty weak, reflected by a poor surface wind field and weak 850mb cold advection. The southwest ridge looks to stay in place over the weekend and should begin to drift eastward, which will introduce zonal flow in the upper levels, moving in to the work week.
Afternoon high temperatures will be cooler than we have experienced in the last 5 days with readings in the 80s. There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms over the north Cascades this afternoon mainly over the high terrain under a moist difluent flow. Friday looks a bit warmer with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. The arrival of a more vigorous cold front late in the day will produce gusty south winds in the afternoon across central Washington including places like Moses Lake, Grand Coulee, and the Okanogan Valley where pre-frontal winds will gust in the 20 to 30 mph range. /GKoch 18Z TAFS: Light rain showers in far eastern WA and the ID Panhandle will conintue moving northeast and dissipate this afternoon with some clearing skies from the west as the cold front pushes eastward.
108 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 High pressure centered over northern Pennsylvania will continue to move slowly east and then off the New England Coast overnight. However a ridge of high pressure will persist across the region into the weekend.
This is making for south to southeast winds through the lowest 2 km of the atmosphere.
/Issued 1109 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020/ Surface ridging remains in place through the forecast area today, though the axis has shifted to the east slightly from the previous couple of days. A strong mid level anticyclone remains anchored across the Southwestern US with strong mid level northerly flow over the Plains. /Issued 240 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020/ Quiet/seasonally mild weather will continue, with the forecast area remaining in northerly flow aloft between the western states ridge and MS valley trof.
1051 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020 High pressure will continue to provide pleasant summer days the rest of this week.
As the low-level jet ramps up, this should lead to the development of a few scattered showers and storms over southern Minnesota/northern Iowa. The heat and humidity returns for Friday as southerly winds continue to pull in warmer temperatures and more moisture.