Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
234 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016 The main story in the short term is the arrival of cooler and less humid air. The cooler air mass is arriving in a rather unconventional way, without any easily identifiable cold front. Highs will generally be in the lower 80s Thursday, with lows Thursday night around 60.
208 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016 207 PM CDT Northerly winds today in the wake of this mornings cold frontal passage, have resulted in a transition to a cooler and drier air mass from north to south. As this cooler air mass shifts over the warm Lake Michigan waters, this will likely result in some lake effect cloud cover on Thursday. Otherwise, expect temperatures to be cooler in the low to mid 70s in most areas. KJB 216 AM CDT High pressure builds over eastern Canada and southward over Lake Michigan for dry and sunny conditions with highs in the 70s.
and Thursday Northerly winds will continue to usher in a cooler and drier air mass into the region from today into Thursday as a surface Canadian high pressure ridge builds into the region.
On Thursday the region will be sandwiched between a high pressure to the east and a low pressure to the west.
Lower rain chances will continue for the next few days as a combination of deepening east coast trof and circulation around TS Hermine bring dry continental air to the region into early part of this weekend.
307 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2016 A cold front will cross the region on Thursday.
Temperatures have trended down a little as the mid/upper-level trough of low pressure moves inland into California.
307 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 Cold front slides through tonight. Drier and cooler weather through the end of the week and into the weekend unless tropical storm Hermine takes a more westward track. The other area we are watching is the cold front approaching from the northwest. Behind the front we are looking at much cooler and drier weather.
An upper trof will approach from the northwest today and help to spark scattered showers and storms in 1.
1223 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016 WV imagery this morning revealing a well amplified upper ridge extending nwd from the nrn Rockies into wrn Canada. obs were depicting a cold front arcing from the Dakotas to nrn IA to the wrn Great Lakes. Going highs temps still look reasonable with near normal values in the low 80s today/Thur/Fri. ECM/GFS/CMC advertise pcpn making a return to the central plains in response to upper level ridge axis shift east with several impulses ejecting out of the swrn conus. VFR conditions will prevail through the period as high pressure builds into the region.
Lingering fog across the west and possibly the south if it develops this morning, but the high clouds have mitigated the fog development overnight.
a large upper level ridge will continue to stretch from the desert southwest, north into the northern plains, while weak energy under the ridge continues to drift across Colorado and across the region. Afternoon high temperatures will rise into the mid 70s to lower 80s across the lower elevations.
Much drier air arrives in SW KS, circulating in around a surface anticyclone in the upper Mississippi Valley.
12z upper air plots showed an inverted trof extending from srn Baja NE into far SE AZ.
With 500mb ridging increasing will continue with the idea of a gradual weakening trend as it approaches the western areas of the FA. With ridging through NW MN and easterly flow across eastern ND, RAP/ECAM guidance seem reasonable that any activity will remain in central ND and will continue with a dry forecast. Ridge axis begins to shift east this afternoon with strong southerly return flow setting up over western Dakotas by this afternoon. This will keep overnight lows across eastern ND 3 to 5 degrees warmer than Wed morning lows.
Will mention some patchy fog across the lower RGV late tonight into early Thursday where rainfall fell last night through today. Temperatures will be warmer Thursday compared to today with less cloud cover and convection across the area.
321 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 On the latest surface weather map of interest, 1028 mb high pressure was centered over northern Manitoba. It will be seasonably cool with lows tonight in the lower and middle 50s with highs Thursday in the upper 60s to around 70. High pressure starts off Thu evening over far northern Ontario and Hudson Bay.
Moist and unstable airmass will remain in place today as upper level trough diving south through the Great lakes region begins to push a weak cold front closer to our area later today with some modest height falls spreading into the central plains.
TFJ An upper ridge will continue to build over Eastern Montana and Saskatchewan today. Lee trof begins to strengthen today over Central Montana which will bring breezy southeast winds to the eastern half of the forecast area. The upper ridge moves to the Montana/Dakota border tonight while lee side trough moves to near Havre and Lewistown. The upper ridge moves to the Dakotas on Thursday and the upper trough/low moves inland into British Columbia and Pacific NW. Hot summerlike temperatures will continue with thermal ridge in place.
255 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016 At 2 PM, a short wave trough was moving southeast Minnesota and central Wisconsin. Temperatures were in the lower 70s north of Interstate 94 and and in the mid and upper 70s across the remainder of the Upper Mississippi River Valley.
Light n/ne winds around 5 kts will prevail through tonight, before increasing from the n/ne around 8 kts behind the cold front late Thursday a. However, low level convergence at the cold front will not be impressive with nearly unidirectional and weak surface winds on either side of the boundary. Have left VCTS out at Waco with the cold front being delayed until Thursday afternoon and convective chances being lower.
348 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016 The big picture on the water vapor imagery this afternoon shows the Nation is currently dominated by a high amplitude pattern, with a eastern Canadian trough juxtaposed against our Rocky Mountain ridge, thus leaving the Central Plains under the influence of a northwest flow. Of additional note, a cutoff circulation, that was spinning over the Four Corners region recently, is seen shearing apart across Kansas and Missouri this afternoon as the circulation continues to get absorbed into the mean westerlies that are diving under the Canadian trough. Otherwise, the next few days will see the Rocky Mountain ridge continued to progress east as a large trough makes landfall across the West Coast.
700 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 On the latest surface weather map of interest, 1028 mb high pressure was centered over northern Manitoba. It will be seasonably cool with lows tonight in the lower and middle 50s with highs Thursday in the upper 60s to around 70. High pressure starts off Thu evening over far northern Ontario and Hudson Bay.
232 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2016 A cold front will approach the region today with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected. The front will pass south of the region tonight ushering in cooler and mainly dry weather for Thursday onward into the first half of the upcoming weekend.
The tropical system will be moving into an upper weakness over the extreme southeast states, with the weakness beginning to be absorbed on Thursday by an amplifying longwave trof over the eastern states. Lows tonight will range from the lower 70s inland to the mid/upper 70s near the coast. Highs on Thursday will range from the upper 80s near the western Florida coast to the lower/ mid 90s for much of the remainder of the area.
A broad upper level trough over the West Coast will remain in place through late week and result in dry weather conditions along with temperatures below seasonal averages. Fort Ord profiler shows that it is already starting to rebound as a longwave trough approaches our region.
208 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 Cold front slides through tonight. Drier and cooler weather through the end of the week and into the weekend. The other area we are watching is the cold front approaching from the northwest. Behind the front we are looking at much cooler and drier weather. Cold front moving away Thursday. Then quiet weather settles in, with cooler and drier conditions headed towards the weekend. High pressure will build across the area. Otherwise the focus is on a cold front that will enter the Ohio Valley this evening.
345 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 A cold front will move south of the Ohio River by Thursday morning. High pressure and a dry airmass will then build in through the weekend.
0 inches) continues along and south of this shear axis, which will be shunted very slowly southward Tonight, as upper troughing digs into the Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes.
With cooler temperatures advecting in from the north and the clouds, highs in the low to mid 80s still look good today. Britt Despite the initially warm/humid start this morning, a cold front is on track to move through the region today and ultimately bring an eagerly anticipated cooler/drier air mass into the region tonight. Scattered SHRA/TSRA are expected to develop near and ahead of the front today, especially during the afternoon when an upper trough will be moving across the area. Pcpn will end with fropa, and a much cooler and drier air mass then spreads into the region tonight. Overnight lows will be around 10 degrees cooler than last night. Kanofsky Expect cooler and drier post-frontal conditions for Thu, Fri, and probably most of Sat.
348 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 A slow moving cold front will continue to sag south through New England tonight and will push offshore on Thursday.
Models remain in very good agreement with building an amplified upper level ridge from the Plains to across the Upper Mississippi River Valley over the next few days, while at the sfc its associated high moves overhead Thu afternoon.
253 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 A cold front will sweep southeast the remainder of the afternoon with scattered showers and possibly a rumble or 2 of thunder. Cooler and less humid conditions will settle in for the weekend. Strong cold front was working steadily SE across the forecast area with a broken line of showers and a occasional lightning strike. High pressure will dominate conditions across the region with any major upstream changes hampered initially by remnants of "Hermine" that will likely be raising havoc along the East coast.
Cloud cover and increasing northerly winds will keep temperatures cooler than the last several days; however, low- level moisture will be slow to erode and conditions may still feel a bit muggy through early this evening.
Today there will be a slight increase in rain chances for eastern sites and southern sites as TD 09 begins to track NE and an upper trough in the north begins to translate southward.
IR satellite imagery showing next Pacific low pressure system moving into the PACNW. Ridge axis moves east early this evening.
Beyond these early morning concerns, anticipate quiet/comfortable conditions through the next 24 hours as surface and upper level ridges linger over the region. Temperatures should be near to just above normal for this last day of August, with highs from the upper 70s around the Buffalo Ridge/Iowa Great Lakes, to the mid 80s near and west of the James River.
Isolated showers and storms late this afternoon are expected to end after sunset, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
342 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016 (Tonight and Thursday) Showers and a few storms have developed this afternoon as moist and unstable airmass remains over the area at lower levels despite the ridge aloft. Low level moisture remains high with overnight lows generally in the lower 70s.
1230 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016 Updated aviation section for 18Z tafs The upper level high that was centered over the area for the past few days has shifted westward and is centered over the Tulsa OK area. This upper high will continue to shift further westward today as a weak upper level wave swings down toward us from the north. Given the high PW values, any of the storms that form will be capable of heavy rainfall and possible localized flooding, although mid level lapse rates are rather weak.
As the shower potential moves further south into Kansas by late evening, dry conditions return to central Nebraska as high pressure builds southward. Fog should lift by mid-morning (10am) and dry weather will stick around through the remainder of the day as high pressure remains over the area. Temperatures will drop down into the mid to upper 50s Wednesday night before rising back into the low 80s on Thursday.
317 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016 Band of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move southeast late this afternoon and will be south of the CWA by early this evening as low level winds begin to advect cooler and drier air into the area. Some diurnal cumulus is expect to develop over the northeast half of the CWA by afternoon as a weak mid level trough passes through the area. Expect highs tomorrow to be closer to warmer NAM MOS guidance which has values closer to 80 degrees in most areas. Carney High pressure remains in control of the weather through the weekend.
This morning TD 9 continues to slowly move across the eastern gulf while weak ridging at the surface extends from the Mid-Atlantic across the Mid and Lower MS Valley. This system will be picked up and kicked out by a amplifying upper pattern that will also send a weak cold front to the northern gulf coast.
1003 AM PDT WED AUG 31 2016 A cooling trend and an increase in night through morning low clouds and fog is expected through the weekend as a broad trough of low pressure deepens.
Another complicating factor is a possible weak cold front/surface boundary that slides into the northeastern third of the forecast area by tomorrow morning.
High pressure from the northeast and its drier air in the lower levels starting to undercut what remains of the showers over the area today, with the northeastern counties drying out and the west and south expected to dry out in short order.
1225 PM MDT WED AUG 31 2016 Upper ridging continues across the central CONUS with the main axis sitting across the High Plains. while an upper trough/low is moving into the PacNW.
304 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016 207 PM CDT Northerly winds today in the wake of this mornings cold frontal passage, have resulted in a transition to a cooler and drier air mass from north to south. As this cooler air mass shifts over the warm Lake Michigan waters, this will likely result in some lake effect cloud cover on Thursday. Otherwise, expect temperatures to be cooler in the low to mid 70s in most areas. KJB 303 PM CDT The longer term forecast period will start out with a continuation of quiet weather as high pressure slowly spreads to the upper Great Lakes with a ridge axis extending southwest through the middle and upper Mississippi Valley. The quiet weather will persist through the weekend, with temperatures starting out below seasonal normal levels, with lows in the lower to middle 50s.
/issued 428 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016/ (Today and Tonight) The upper high currently centered over Oklahoma, will expand southwest across the area today. Subsidence associated with the high will not be overly strong and with a moist and unstable airmass in place, isolated to widely scattered showers an a few thunderstorms are expected to develop once again. Will keep POPs on the low side though, ranging from 20 percent across far eastern counties to 30 percent elsewhere.
All of this convection is expected to slowly drift SE as the trough/sfc boundary approach tonight. While most convection will diminish in coverage late this evening, models indicate isolated showers/storms may still continue through Thu morning as the upper trough slowly pushes through the region. Temperatures in the upper trough will be pleasant.
The region will be in transition between the hot ridge of high pressure to the east and an approaching trough of low pressure to the west on Thursday.
142 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 A cold front will cross the area today, bringing a good chance for showers and thunderstorms. After the front travels south of the region tonight, high pressure and a dry airmass will build in through the weekend.
Have backed off on the chance of showers in the Platte River valley, where temperatures are cooler and the airmass more stable. Synoptically, the upper ridge axis will be centered over the state, with more subsident forcing in place. Will keep the plains dry through tomorrow afternoon but hang onto isolated-scattered pops over the mountains, where the heating over the higher terrain will overcome the subsidence. Temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than today as the ridge moves overhead. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be diminishing over the high terrain Thursday evening, though some high clouds will likely remain.
Instability should be less today with cooler daytime highs but upper level trough axis dropping southward will help aid in vertical motion across the region.
East/northeast flow into our area will keep a drier air flow into our area, with the high slow to depart as Tropical Storm Hermine or its remnants track up the southeast U. A gradual warmer and more humid trend will set up during the second half of the weekend, as a prominent upper trough digs along the West Coast this weekend due to this system.
A cold front will sweep across Central Indiana today. Dry weather is expected to return to the state late this afternoon and this evening as high pressure builds across the region from the upper midwest.
400 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016 The axis of an upper level ridge extends from Southern Canada southward along the High Plains lee of the Rockies. A secondary ridge is currently centered in Northern Texas. Latest regional radar loops clearly show convection in Oklahoma and Texas rotating around the ridge. However, additional convection will likely persist ahead of a cold front that is slowly moving southward through Oklahoma and Arkansas.
Upper ridging over the Southern Plains this afternoon will continue to slide towards Southwest Texas on Thursday, but forecast precipitable water values are expected to remain elevated in the 1. While increased subsidence from upper ridging will help limit overall shower and thunderstorm development, expect another day with mainly daytime isolated showers and thunderstorms capable of brief heavy rainfall and highs in the low to mid 90s.
The air mass across the region remains warm and humid with temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Although winds are northerly across the forecast area early this morning, the main cold front lies across far northern Missouri delineating the leading edge of the cooler drier airmass over the Upper Midwest. The clouds and preciptiation will keep temperatures down today with highs ranging from the middle 80s along the Arkansas border, to the lower 80s across central Missouri. With Canadian high pressure settling in across Iowa and Minnesota lows will drop into the 60s and maybe some upper 50s across central Missouri.
357 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016 Afternoon has quieted down with dissipation of earlier area of showers and thunderstorms into the mid James valley, and high pressure axis stretched fairly near the I-29 corridor. Upper-level ridge will continue to take stronger hold on weather for tonight. Different for tonight will be our location somewhat closer to center of mid to upper level ridge, suggesting less potential for any storms to drift southward into the CWA. High pressure shifting eastward Thursday will allow increase in southerly gradient, with winds west of the James River reaching a bit gusty levels of 15 to 25 mph during the afternoon. While the flow around exiting ridge could bring another couple degrees cooling into areas near/east of the James, should be fairly close to today for south central SD.
350 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 Scattered showers with a chance of a thunderstorm will be possible into this evening as a cold front cuts across New York and Pennsylvania.
116 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 Showers and a few thunderstorms are again possible today as a cold front drops southward through the region. Cooler and noticeably less humid air will filter in for Thursday and persist through the weekend.
though locations that received rain today may be a bit warmer tomorrow, and vice versa.
234 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 A cold front will move across the commonwealth late today through early Thursday, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
232 PM MDT WED AUG 31 2016 Upper level analysis has amplified flow with large ridge across the central CONUS and trof across the west coast. At the surface, high pressure is located across Minnesota with low pressure developing across central Montana. Upper ridge axis will cross the Northern Plains with very warm and dry conditions continuing.
558 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 A cold front will move into the coastal waters tonight.
Weak ridging behind this wave has helped to limit development farther west and north. All of this convection is expected to slowly drift SE as the trough/sfc boundary approach tonight. While most convection will diminish in coverage late this evening, models indicate isolated showers/storms may still continue through Thu morning as the upper trough slowly pushes through the region. Temperatures in the upper trough will be pleasant.
Have issued a rip current statement to highlight the high threat of rip currents this evening through Thursday. though locations that received rain today may be a bit warmer tomorrow, and vice versa.
415 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 A cold front will move across the commonwealth late today through early Thursday, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tonight and Thursday The main forecast challenge for the next 24 hours will be cloud trends as the cool air mass moving over the warmer water of the Great Lakes will generate lake effect clouds and even a few sprinkles (showers?) across far northern or eastern WI. The 19z MSAS surface analysis indicated a ridge of high pressure extended from central Canada south into the Central Plains. Northeast WI to remain under a northwest flow aloft tonight with upper ridging over central NOAM and upper troughing over the northeast CONUS. An area of high pressure is forecast to build into the Western Great Lakes on Thursday and veer the winds more to the northeast. Thursday Night Through Wednesday Canadian high pressure will bring pleasant late summer weather to the region through the weekend, along with a gradual warming trend.
Mid TN was experiencing hot and typically humid conditions under a weakening upper level ridge. A trough was beginning to dig over the eastern states with a surface cold front across the midwest. Over the next couple of days, the trough and front will help kick the tropical systems off toward the northeast while bringing some very nice conditions into Mid TN. Temperatures will top out in the low to mid 90s, except upper 80s Plateau.
Light n/ne winds around 5 kts will prevail through tonight, before increasing from the n/ne around 8 kts behind the cold front late Thursday a. However, low level convergence at the cold front will not be impressive with nearly unidirectional and weak surface winds on either side of the boundary. Have left VCTS out at Waco with the cold front being delayed until Thursday afternoon and convective chances being lower. The upper ridge continues to slightly weaken as it slowly drifts southwestward across North Texas and will likely be capable of suppressing most convection this afternoon. Will continue to assess new guidance regarding the additional rain and thunderstorm chances with the weak cold front expected overnight and Thursday.