Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Expect today's highs to climb into the lower 50s across central Missouri to near 60 along the Arkansas/Missouri border. For tonight, expect lows to fall into the middle 30s, with the valleys reaching closer to freezing. An associated low pressure system will develop to the northwest of the region and slide southeast through the Ozarks. Temperatures will fall overnight Wednesday to around freezing (31 to 33 degrees). Guidance continues to suggest that the higher terrain east of Springfield, mainly along or near the Highway 60 corridor, will see the best chance of light accumulating snowfall.
558 AM CST Tue Jan 5 2021 High pressure will build into the region today, which usually signals plenty of sunshine. Forecast soundings indicate a robust low level inversion will trap abundant moisture in the lowest 100 mb of the boundary layer over the next 2 to 3 days. The Bufkit soundings show some omega in that moisture layer below the inversion at times, which could spell drizzle or freezing drizzle at times. Any sunshine today would melt some of the snowpack and add even more moisture to the boundary layer, since low level winds will be light and variable under advancing high pressure.
450 AM EST Tue Jan 5 2021 Cooler weather has arrived this morning in the Florida Keys following the passage of a relatively weak cold front for early January. Temperatures range from the lower 60s across the Upper Keys to the mid 60s elsewhere.
(Today and tonight) Early morning water vapor imagery shows zonal flow aloft across West Central texas with an upper level trough approaching the Four Corners Region. Lows will range from from the 30s across the far western counties to the lower 50s across the Hill Country.
Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Eastern A disturbance is expected to move east through the area this morning with a cold front. Temperatures aloft will generally be above freezing until the cold front brings cooling aloft this afternoon. Temperatures in the eastern 2/3rds of the forecast area are below freezing at 2 am and are cold as the lower 20s in the NE corner of the state. This will cause any precip that falls to be in the form of sleet and/or freezing rain. Will keep Winter Weather Advisory in effect in the east for the sleet/freezing rain mix. After the cold front moves to the east this afternoon, gusty west to NW winds will develop and skies will clear. With good mixing expected, temperatures should rise into the 40s even with cooler temperatures aloft.
438 AM CST Tue Jan 5 2021 Upper level ridge will build into the Mississippi river valley today bringing high and dry conditions with temperatures rebounding to above normal and continuing through tomorrow. Upper level trough will dig through the Plains on Wednesday bringing an associated cold front out ahead of it into the forecast area by late Wednesday.
Light and variable wind this morning will become southerly by midday before a cold front blows in tonight. /issued 254 AM CST Tue Jan 5 2021/ Today looks to be the warmest day of the week as ridging and southerly surface flow combine to give us a beautiful afternoon.
A cold front, however, will move through West Central Texas late tonight and Wednesday, bringing drier air and sunny skies into the region, along with gusty northwest to north winds. Temperatures will be cooler Wednesday with highs ranging from the mid 50s in the Big Country to lower 60s along I-10 and the Northwest Hill Country.
This front will also drop temperatures back to seasonal normals, in the low to mid 50's.
A cold front has just about made it all the way through Middle Tennessee, with light showers pushing off to the east and plenty of low clouds still to rotate through the mid state.
1137 AM CST Tue Jan 5 2021 (Today and tonight) Early morning water vapor imagery shows zonal flow aloft across West Central texas with an upper level trough approaching the Four Corners Region. Lows will range from from the 30s across the far western counties to the lower 50s across the Hill Country.
The weak flow and moisture being trapped in the low levels, combined with some clearing of skies resulted in the areas of dense fog. The ridge is building into the area, however 500mb heights are falling across the Rockies. Forecast soundings across parts of WI/IA supports areas dense fog with the inversion in place trapping the low level moist layer. High pressure works in for the end of the week, continuing the mainly dry and relatively mild weather with highs in the upper 20s to low 30s and lows in the teens and 20s. The low level flow remains light, however we have cirrus already beginning to increase toward KRST and ceilings around fl150 coming into KFSD. In addition, the low level jet to the west will influence areas near KRST with a little stronger mixing.
High pressure will follow for the mid week period, with another storm system possible heading into the upcoming weekend. H5 analysis indicates that the mid level trough axis of the progressive short wave which passed northern/central portions of the area early this morning has now shifted downstream, with current location roughly placed along the UT/CO border. The going Winter Weather Advisory for the northern mountains will be able to be expired on time and at noon, but at this time the only lingering impacts moving forward are for spotty and light snow accums on the highest mountain canyons/summit roads over the next hour or so.
130 PM EST Tue Jan 5 2021 Aviation - Icy travel possible for the morning commute today - Risk for Freezing fog later tonight We dropped the Winter Weather Advisory going on 900am this morning. Temperatures are quite marginal for freezing drizzle (around 30F). - Risk for Freezing fog later tonight Bufkit overviews and High Res models show a low potential for thicker fog later tonight mainly for our southwest counties. A ridge of high pressure is forecast to remain in place across the Great Lakes through the end of the week continuing the subsidence inversion, which in turn holds in the clouds.
Tamed southerly flow this afternoon will veer around to SW prior to a cold front moving into the area. /issued 254 AM CST Tue Jan 5 2021/ Today looks to be the warmest day of the week as ridging and southerly surface flow combine to give us a beautiful afternoon.
High pressure and mostly sunny skies prevail across the ArkLaMiss this morning. /15/ Prior discussion below: High pressure will build in behind the weak cold front, resulting in a mostly sunny day across the region. Overnight the ridge axis slips to the east. and drier and cooler air work into the region. Overnight lows will drop below freezing again tonight in the northeast and east central MS.
1041 AM EST Tue Jan 5 2021 Cooler temperatures and clear skies were the story this morning across east central Florida. Our official sites and observations reported by the Cooperative Network showed low temps ranging in the lower 40s with some mid 40s in urban areas and lower 50s for southern Treasure Coast. For tonight, as a weak, dry cold front moves through the area, drier air will move in with winds returning to flow from the north. Cold air advection will bring temps down again to the lower 40s with some rural locations possibly dropping to the upper 30s for 1-3 hrs just before sunrise. As a low pressure exiting the northeast U. extends its trough towards the FL peninsula this afternoon, winds will slightly increase to 15-20 kt for the waters east of Volusia and Cape Canaveral late this afternoon.
Longwave trough is currently making its way through the Rockies with a couple of different disturbances embedded within it. Model forecast soundings largely show profiles hugging the freezing line in the lowest 3-5 kft with a subtle warm nose at times. Meanwhile, surface temperatures will be sitting a couple degrees either side of freezing. With this said, it is completely feasible that we could see at least a couple hours of light freezing rain or just plain cold rain for most, perhaps longer for some locations. Locations around Sioux City stay very near the freezing mark through the morning hours Wednesday and may be the last to make the switch to all snow. Additionally, SLRs will be on the low side which should also work to keep snow amounts in check.
Behind this low cloud shield, skies are generally clear aside from some wispy high cirrus. Temperatures will likely be similar to yesterday, ranging from the mid 30s to near 50 degrees with mild temperatures along and south of I-70, and cooler temps to the north.
Expect slight cooling and breezy winds today behind a dry cold front.
Tomorrow appears to be a rinse and repeat of today as upper-level ridging remains over the area. Despite some cloudiness tomorrow, expecting temps to be a few degrees warmer than today.
In the wake of a weak cold front that passed through the region this morning, we can expect breezy conditions to wind down to light winds by sunset. Although this cold front didn't bring anything in the form of precipiation, it did bring in a reinforced shot of cool air, which when coupled with clear skies tonight will lead to a chilly morning on Wednesday.
Aloft, a brief period of ridging will move across the northern Gulf coast later this evening and through Wednesday.
Broad mid-upper level troughing remains over the eastern U. with the base of the trough extending south along the eastern seaboard. Some cooler, slightly below seasonal temperatures are being advected on the back side of this trough into Florida through Wednesday.
A pocket of amplified flow at 700mb in the southwest corner of San Miguel county alongside a deepening lee-side trough could allow gusts near 50 mph to mix down for a couple hours this afternoon. The ridge of high pressure is exiting NM early this morning with the next upstream short wave trough moving across the state today with increased winds but no precipitation. A ridge of high pressure will approach Wednesday resulting in less wind, but cooler temperatures behind the trough passage.
A transitory ridge of high pressure is over the forecast area this morning providing mostly clear skies. This will again mainly be a low elevation rain event and snow in the mountains with some low end snow accumulation advisories in the higher elevations.
Moisture lingers into the evening in the lowest levels near 925mb and below with northwest flow prevailing. The environment is conducive for freezing drizzle if precip occurs during this time. However, it looks like the only potential would be in the highest peaks with confidence too limited for messaging or any mentionable PoPs. Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 30 50 34 48 / 10 0 0 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 47 29 46 30 46 / 40 10 0 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 46 28 46 30 46 / 30 10 0 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 42 29 42 27 47 / 70 20 0 10 10 TN.
201 PM CST Tue Jan 5 2021 As a mid-level trof moves e-se of the Rocky Mtns this evening an assocd cold front will be pushed swd initially arriving in the far nwrn CWFA around 06Z/Wed and then the far swrn reaches before 15Z/Wed. GFS has trended back farther s and it now has an open wave similar to the 00Z/Tue and 12Z/Tue ECMWF depiction of a sharp positively tilted open mid-level trof.
/Tonight through Wednesday Night/ Pattern to transition overnight as a cold front approaches the region from the west. Increased southerly flow combined with thickening ceilings will allow for a warmer night with overnight temperatures forecast to range from the upper 40s across east Texas to the mid 30s across north Louisiana.
307 PM EST Tue Jan 5 2021 A high pressure ridge builds from the west and north through Wednesday. This ridge then persists over northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania through this weekend. At the surface, a ridge builds slowly from the west and north through the period. These low clouds will tend to be warmer than -10C and thus too warm to support ice nucleation and snow production. Thus, the potential of drizzle or freezing drizzle through Wednesday night appears to be minimal.
Ceilings will increase in coverage across the area from west to east ahead of a cold front, however conditions will remain VFR. As the cold front works into the area, showers can be expected. Winds will remain light and gradually veer to a more erly direction by 12z Wednesday as high pressure pushes ewd past the region. Otherwise return flow starts tonight ahead of the next cold front that will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to the area Wednesday into Wednesday night. In the wake of this system Drier and cooler weather can be expected through the end of the week and into the weekend. The ECMWF, CMC and GFS have all trended south with the low and the CMC and ECMWF are slower with the progress of the system than the GFS.
Most of the moisture will fall below the DGZ, thus any precipitation observed could vary between snow/rain or some patchy freezing drizzle at times.
Some increase in mid and high clouds from the west will occur during the afternoon/evening ahead of a trough moving out of the Rockies. The highest chances look to be near/east of the MS River where higher cloud cover is likely to be thinner. The low level flow remains light, however we have cirrus already beginning to increase toward KRST and ceilings around fl150 coming into KFSD. In addition, the low level jet to the west will influence areas near KRST with a little stronger mixing.
Winter weather advisory has expired for portions of SW MT and areas along the divide where widespread snow has ended, but some snow showers will linger through this morning across the mountains in somewhat unstable westerly flow aloft before drier and more stable conditions develop this afternoon with upper level ridging building in from the west. Hoenisch Areas of light snow in southwest Montana and over the western mountains will taper off this morning as high pressure builds in from the west.
323 PM EST Tue Jan 5 2021 Dreary January conditions will persist through the next several days with mostly cloudy skies and chances for flurries and freezing drizzle expected. Some chances for light snow/flurries are possible as spokes of moisture continue to pivot westward associated with the area of low pressure located within the Gulf of Maine. Soundings are tricky to discern whether there will be enough cloud ice to produce flurries, therefore have mention of both flurries and freezing drizzle possible through Wednesday night. In this in mind, the upper level pattern is quite chaotic with no less than 5 different troughs/ridges over the CONUS on any given day.
Paired with temperatures below freezing, some slippery spots are possible into Wednesday morning. An elongated trough is currently moving through the region, preceded by areas of fog and freezing fog. However, with high pressure rapidly returning in the wake of the trough, a subsidence inversion will keep moisture trapped near the surface, and low clouds and mist will prevail through the day.
The eastern extent will be problematic however as the system stalls and the primary PV anomaly support surges south into the Lower MS Valley. There are thermal questions reducing confidence as well, with a warm layer around 1km possibly flipping p-type to freezing rain or a wintry mix at times into Wednesday before column temps eventually cool sufficiently for mainly snow. A MS Valley surface theta-e ridge just ahead of the system may also be just sufficient for a period of rain initially along the last tier of western counties near Denison. There will also be the potential for a light freezing rain or sleet wintry mix over that entire area at times.
1245 PM EST Tue Jan 5 2021 A trough will move east across the area on today, while another weak ridge of high pressure will arrive on Wednesday. High pressure will stay over the region through weekend with seasonable temperatures and quiet weather. These low clouds will tend to be warmer than -10C and thus too warm to support ice nucleation and snow production. Thus, the potential of drizzle or freezing drizzle the rest of today through Wednesday appears to be minimal, even after evaluating 12Z/Tue model sounding data. Afternoon highs should reach the lower to mid 30's.
If we see less cloud cover, won't rule out some patchy fog in mainly our fog prone areas near rivers/lakes/valleys, and if that is able to develop, it would become freezing fog as the temps fall below freezing overnight. High pressure will remain the dominant feature on Wednesday, keeping conditions dry throughout the day. Daytime highs will be a tad warmer, reaching the lower 50s. This is all ahead of our next system, a deepening upper level trough that will dig into the Lower MS Valley Wed night into Thurs before reaching the Central Gulf coast by Thurs night.
1154 AM CST Tue Jan 5 2021 Western CONUS upper trof will move eastward across the Rockies today, before emerging across the central/northern high Plains this evening. Stronger southerly low level flow will develop across the area, ahead of the deepening lee side surface trof and cold front. The mid and upper level trof is still expected to dig southeastward across Kansas on Wednesday with a closed tropospheric low forming across eastern Kansas.
1237 PM EST Tue Jan 5 2021 A weak upper level low will remain parked over New England through Wednesday, supporting abundant cloud cover and occasional flurries and light snow showers with spotty minor accumulations.
At the moment the latest guidance keeps the heaviest snow potential in and around the James Valley in the axis of the trough. Tossed the RAP out for this forecast area given its penchant for too much fzra even with moisture in the snow growth region and profiles all below freezing by late evening. Southerly flow ahead of the low has primed the region with increasing mid level moisture. Prior to full saturation at the lower levels there could be some freezing drizzle that mixes in, especially along the I- 90 corridor. As the snow exits from north to south on Wednesday, there could be some periods of freezing drizzle mixed in.
(This evening through Wednesday) Unseasonably warm today followed by a cold front with rain chances (mainly eastern Oklahoma) tomorrow. A cold front will move into northwest Oklahoma before sunrise tomorrow morning, clearing most of the state by noon.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): The most significant event during this portion of the forecast will be the approach and Wednesday passage of a cold front.
1040 AM MST Tue Jan 5 2021 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southeast Alberta, with warm front extending southeast through eastern MT and into the Black Hills area. Pacific cold front extends south from the low across western MT into far western WY. A quick 1 to 3 inches of snow will likely fall over the northern Black Hills this afternoon, especially the higher elevations. The trough is expected to deepen as it shifts south and east of the region later tonight.
The ridge will continue to shift east of the area on Wednesday and the surface flow will become more then southeasterly during the afternoon hours.
While the potential for 60+ MPH gusts will be fairly short lived with the wind shift and cold frontal passage expected by 18z or so, gusty winds in excess of 45 MPH will persist. The potential exists for 2-4 inches of snow on some of the higher ridges in the North Snowy Range Foothills. This continues to support the High Wind Warning/Winter Weather Advisory combination, valid through this evening. Winds should diminish quickly by mid/late afternoon as the cold front passes. The combination of snow and wind may yield near-blizzard conditions in the high country.
Increasing WNW flow and forcing on the SW-side of upper trough supports max POPs over the NW Allegheny Plateau down into the Laurel Highlands where HREF mean shows highest probs for a fresh coating to 0.
Temperatures will remain locked in the lower to upper 30s today with skies remaining overcast. Might still observe some misty conditions tonight with the low-level moisture remaining in place. High pressure settles in across the Midwest Wednesday morning. An H5 low will traverse the lower CONUS Wednesday night.
Recently reinforced high pressure over the Mississippi River valley maintains cool and dry northerlies across the Florida Keys, at times gusting to around 20 mph.
Low level ridging over the MS Valley will slide east-northeastward through tonight, moving into the OH Valley early Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, weak upper level ridging will slide eastward along the northern Gulf coast through tonight leaving clear or mostly clear skies.
Reinforcing cold front is moving across the area this morning and will exit the eastern border by midday. This will usher in cooler temperatures for today and tonight, with lows reaching the mid 30s Wednesday morning.
This was a result of high pressure moving into the area, with light and dry west winds shunting the low-level stratus deck well into northern and central Illinois. Many sites saw temperatures this afternoon rise well above freezing, especially along and south of Interstate 80. Looking ahead, storm track looks to be displaced well into the lower Mississippi River Valley as the upper level jet stream shifts south.
Moisture lingers into the evening in the lowest levels near 925mb and below with northwest flow prevailing. The environment is conducive for freezing drizzle if precip occurs during this time. However, it looks like the only potential would be in the highest peaks with confidence too limited for messaging or any mentionable PoPs. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 30 50 34 48 / 10 0 0 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 47 29 46 30 46 / 40 0 0 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 46 28 46 30 46 / 30 10 0 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 42 29 42 27 47 / 70 10 0 10 10 TN.
148 PM EST Tue Jan 5 2021 A weak upper level low will remain parked over New England through Wednesday, supporting abundant cloud cover and occasional flurries and light snow showers with spotty minor accumulations.
Some light snow accumulations, generally less than an inch, still appear likely south of the Minnesota River valley, with pockets of light freezing drizzle/rain still a possibility at the onset and cessation of activity as the column saturation fails to extend into sufficiently cold temperatures for ice crystal development. On the temperature front, expect continued warmer than average temperatures with highs in the 20s to near freezing in some areas and lows in the teens. This might not sound warm, but January averages have highs in the low 20s and lows in the single digits. Looking beyond this period Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlooks continue to suggest better chances for warmer and dryer than normal weather.
Patchy freezing drizzle thru tonight may cause some slick spots on area roads. Most of our area is now above freezing. but this will be short-live as temps begin to dip to and eventually below freezing with sunset this evening. certainly cannot rule out continued small chances of light snow and/or patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle thru this evening as this weak wave swings thru our CWA. This may cause a few slick spots on area roads later this evening once temps have dropped below freezing. Surface ridging will build into the Western Great Lakes on Wednesday to provide a precip-free day.
The cold front has passed through most of the forecast area with the exception of mainly Tripp county with southerly winds still reported at ICR. The cold front will pass through that area and completely to the southeast of the forecast area over the next couple of hours. Much of the areas showing radar returns at this time are dry enough in the lower levels that no precipitation is reaching the ground.
While confidence is low, there will also be a chance for freezing drizzle in and around the Flathead Valley, so the morning commute could be slick in isolated areas.