Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1215 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022 A Wednesday cold front will interrupt the warm and dry weather. Eastern CONUS ridging remains in place today, resulting in continued dry weather.
Lastly the combination of rain and cloud cover has kept the temperatures near steady near 80 degrees today, while dew points have fallen into the lower 70s. An upper level low still remains in place just off the southeast U. Thereafter, an upper level trough moving into the southwest Gulf of Mexico/Bay of Campeche region will help to begin lifting an area of disorganized tropical moisture northeast.
256 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022 High pressure surface and aloft brings mainly dry and warm weather through tonight. A cold front brings the next chance for showers and thunderstorms for midweek. Expanded an isolated shower/thunderstorm mention across NE WV, and along the higher terrain into SW VA based on current satellite/radar trends. The high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will continue to provide dry and hot weather conditions through Wednesday.
114 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022 High pressure surface and aloft brings mainly dry and warm weather through tonight. A cold front brings the next chance for showers and thunderstorms for midweek. The high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will continue to provide dry and hot weather conditions through Wednesday. Upper level ridging contributing to dry weather these past few days will begin to flatten on Wednesday and become displaced to the east. Unsettled weather then pushes back into the Ohio Valley in the form of a surface cold front beginning late Wednesday afternoon into the evening time frame.
901 AM MDT Tue May 31 2022 Temperatures have risen above freezing and therefore the Freeze Warning has been allowed to expire. Midlevel low pressure is currently centered over the Great Basin and will continue to lift over the forecast area today and tonight. Later this evening and tonight the trough lifts overhead providing some lift. A cold front moving southward along the Front Range may allow some moisture to reach the Divide. The Uintas, Elkhead, Park Range, and Sawatch could see a few inches until the low lifts out of the region tomorrow. By tomorrow evening the low is gone leaving quasi-zonal flow in place. The air mass will begin to quickly modifying so highs will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today.
Deep-layer high pressure will largely suppress convection on Wednesday with PoPs of 20% or less for most areas and 30% for the Lower Suwannee Valley.
1246 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022 Updated to lower temps today and to push the higher pops further south. A cold front will be the focus of storms today with very heavy rainfall expected just north of the front and areas south and eastward.
Even with a ridge of high pressure sliding overhead, it probably won't be enough to completely suppress showers or a few storms from developing in the more humid air mass around the region.
Elsewhere, lack of any appreciable forcing along with upr ridge just to our north should limit convection to isolated "pulse" through early this evening. Winds will generally be light/variable but becoming NW after 12z Wed as sfc-850mb high pressure shifts west of the area.
(Tonight) Currently, an outflow boundary extends from southeast Kansas into north-central Oklahoma with a cold front lining up from north-central Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle. A larger cluster of storms is anticipated along the cold front across western Oklahoma. The thunderstorms that develop across western Oklahoma this afternoon/evening will have the potential to move into eastern Oklahoma late tonight if the low level jet can sustain this activity.
151 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022 Dry and very warm conditions will continue today as high pressure moves east.
Some afternoon showers are expected to develop in the higher terrain, mainly in the Smokies and SW NC area. High pressure will bring quiet weather today and tonight with only isolated chances of showers/thunderstorms across the high terrain. Discussion: An upper level ridge currently sits across the Southern Appalachians this morning resulting in tranquil weather conditions. The SW/NE oriented upper level ridge will remain situated across the region today into tonight. Differential heating along the high terrain could result in an isolated shower or thunderstorm this afternoon. Daytime highs will be a degree or two warmer than yesterday with upper 80s common across most locations. Temperatures will be mild with lows ranging from the low to upper 60s.
At the surface, a cold front continues to move through the forecast area this afternoon and should be through the entire area by 00z this evening Scattered diurnally driven clouds behind this have produced a few light radar echoes but do not believe much, if any precipitation has reached the ground.
With a weakening upper trough to our south along 40N and a relative upper ridge to our north, our flow aloft is from the east/northeast where the greater moisture is.
1115 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022 Key Messages: - Storm chances this afternoon/evening shifted further south and east - Cooler and mostly dry conditions for next few days Latest satellite water vapor imagery has a low pressure system rotating over eastern North Dakota. A surface cold front stretches from central Minnesota curving back into eastern Nebraska as depicted by surface observations. MUCAPE values could exceed 3000 J/kg for these areas ahead of the cold front by this afternoon. In wake of the cold frontal passage, cooler temperatures are likely to prevail through the week.
A strong area of high pressure centered over the southern Appalachians will amplify today, resulting in continued mostly clear/calm conditions across the Tennessee Valley. Light southerly flow around the western edge of this ridge will help to advect in/reinforce this very warm, moist air mass. However, the strong subsidence from the ridge will prevent any afternoon convection from developing and thus a dry forecast was maintained.
156 PM MST Tue May 31 2022 High pressure will result in continued dry conditions along with a warming trend through the rest of the week.
1252 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022 (Today through Wednesday) High pressure at the surface and aloft continues to circulate to our east as both temperatures and dew points slowly increase.
The upper high/ridge begins to break down or really move south tonight and this allows a frontal system to move closer to the region on Wednesday.
335 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022 High pressure will generally prevail most of this week.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): The mid/upper level ridge will continue to slide off to the northeast through the short term. Temperatures will remain fairly steady with highs being a degree or two cooler than today.
There will be isolated showers and thunderstorms in eastern nevada this afternoon, otherwise look for fair weather and warmer conditions on Wednesday, with fairly light winds. Tonight through Wednesday night Low pressure is centered over eastern Nevada and is providing some afternoon isolated shower activity over mainly White Pine County along with a few lightning flashes. Elsewhere in the CWA is just seeing some cold weather cumulus and cooler then normal temperatures in the mid 50's to mid 60's with winds on the lighter side. The Low Pressure will open up tonight as it moves east and flat ridging will replace it in the West. This will bring fair weather on Wednesday with fairly light winds and much warmer temperatures.
143 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022 High pressure across the region through mid-week with above normal temperatures.
Warmer temperatures and lighter winds are expected through much of this week. One final s/wv rotating through the long wave trough position to our north will graze the Utah border this afternoon. The long wave trough then ejects eastward and is replaced by zonal flow, with above normal hghts over the southwest.
750 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022 High pressure across the region through mid-week with above normal temperatures.
/issued 235 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): The mid/upper level ridge will continue to slide off to the northeast through the short term. Temperatures will remain fairly steady with highs being a degree or two cooler than today.
even with the advancing cold front from the northwest. Speaking of cold fronts.
1012 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022 High pressure will keep the area in a very warm airmass into Wednesday, with limited storm chances, if any.
706 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022 A slow moving cold front will bring a chance of showers and storms to the area tonight into Wednesday. Drier and cooler conditions are expected into the first half of the weekend. Later this evening, a cold front approaches. Low temperatures are expected to fall into the low to mid 60s in the northwest and settle around 70 in the southeast.
Vertically stacked low pressure continues to pinwheel just north of the International Border. Plenty of clouds and some scattered light rain showers are accompanying this, along with gusty winds due to a tight pressure gradient between low pressure and ridging to the east. The blocking ridge to the east will keep low pressure from drifting east, and it will move north instead.
847 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022 High pressure across the region through mid-week with above normal temperatures.
Additionally, there will be a chance for a passing shower or thunderstorm each day, with the highest chance over Central and Southwest MT. Overall, expect weak upper level ridging, followed by upper level disturbances moving through Montana over the next several days.
602 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022 The upper level low continues to spin along the international border, keeping stratus across the bulk of the region. Could be another chance for light showers on Wednesday as a mid level wave moves across the highway 20 corridor. However, the low to mid levels of the atmosphere are quite dry. If the rain can cool the low levels enough via wetbulbing, then it could reach the surface. Aside from rain chances, Wednesday will be another cool day with highs in the 60s due to cooler 850 mb temperatures around 2 standard deviations below average as per the ensemble situational awareness table.
802 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022 High pressure will keep the area in a very warm airmass into Wednesday, with limited storm chances, if any.
Ridging aloft and surface will continue across the southern Appalachians. Continued surface ridging into the area will keep winds less than 10kts and most of the time less than 5kts. Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 91 70 88 65 / 0 10 10 70 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 89 69 87 63 / 0 10 10 70 50 Oak Ridge, TN 66 88 68 87 62 / 0 10 10 80 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 88 65 85 61 / 0 10 10 70 60.
Ensemble guidance is in good agreement ridging will build over the region tomorrow leading to slightly warmer weather than what we are seeing today with highs in the low to mid 90s for much of the Valley.
/Issued 306 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022/ Fairly pronounced and broad area of high pressure extending from the central Appalachians to the Texas Gulf Coast will dominate our weather over the next 24-36 hours, thus not much in the way of "impact" weather to talk about. Daytime highs on Wednesday could be a few degrees warmer than today as the upr ridge inches south/west across the region.
648 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022 Tranquil weather is ongoing across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon with high pressure promoting mostly clear and dry weather. A strong subtropical ridge of a high pressure situated over the southern Appalachians will remain the dominant weather feature over the Deep South on Wednesday.
A strong subtropical ridge of a high pressure situated over the southern Appalachians will remain the dominant weather feature over the Deep South on Wednesday.
607 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022 (This evening through Wednesday) This afternoon, a broad longwave trough continues to be the dominant feature across the western US, and this will keep west Texas under southwest flow aloft. A surface cold front will become quasi-stationary over the Panhandle overnight, while a low- level jet will ramp up across west central Texas.
405 PM MST Tue May 31 2022 Updated Aviation High pressure will result in continued dry conditions along with a warming trend through the rest of the week.
642 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022 (This evening through Wednesday) The effective cold front has finally stalled from around Cheyenne, to Seiling, to Enid, and Ponca City. Tomorrow's threat and location of severe weather will depend on the progression of the cold front.
Several areas have observations of rain occurring the last few hours, with the higher terrain along I-80 over the Summit reporting light snow and low visibility. Latest water vapor loop was showing the upper level trof continuing to spin across Wyoming and northern Utah. At the base of this trof, there are some subtle jet streaks moving through northern Colorado and the southern Nebraska panhandle.
Onshore flow continues with model guidance indicating some increasing moisture between ridge axis across north Florida and inverted trough off the southeast FL coast. Weak troughiness continues aloft, with weak mid-level low off the FL coast, which could help with convective development tomorrow.
723 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022 High pressure surface and aloft brings mainly dry and warm weather through tonight. A cold front brings the next chance for showers and thunderstorms for midweek. Made some tweaks to the precipitation forecast for Wednesday to clean up some inconsistencies in the isolated to scattered convective activity well out ahead of the surface cold front. Expanded an isolated shower/thunderstorm mention across NE WV, and along the higher terrain into SW VA based on current satellite/radar trends. The high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will continue to provide dry and hot weather conditions through Wednesday.
High pressure will hold north of the area through the next couple days, with east winds turning onshore each afternoon with the sea breeze. Late in the week, an area of low pressure is expected to move northeast into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, with increasing winds and swells possible.
1021 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022 High pressure will generally prevail most of this week.
558 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022 A Wednesday cold front will interrupt the warm and dry weather. A cold front will then settle in from the north during the afternoon and evening, bringing shower and thunderstorm chances back to the forecast. Cooler overnight lows will be realized behind the front, especially north of I-80.
937 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022 (Issued 936 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022) Cold front is working it's way through the area this evening with showers and a few weak thunderstorms ahead of it. Cooler and drier air works in overnight with lows bottoming out in the 50s for much of the area. Also seeing some agitated cu across the northwest, closer to the cold front. Convection will wane late this evening, with drier air filtering into the area from the northwest behind the passing cold front. Lows Wednesday night will fall into the low 50s.
A strong area of low pressure will continue pushing north-northeast, leaving behind cool and breezy conditions over this CWA.
635 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022 (Tonight) Currently, an outflow boundary extends from southeast Kansas into north-central Oklahoma with a cold front lining up from north-central Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle. A larger cluster of storms is anticipated along the cold front across western Oklahoma. The thunderstorms that develop across western Oklahoma this afternoon/evening will have the potential to move into eastern Oklahoma late tonight if the low level jet can sustain this activity.
Frontogenesis and an upper level short wave trough are generating the widespread rainfall over northeast CO.
A warming trend will continue through tomorrow for the interior as high pressure shifts over the West Coast. Widespread rain is looking more likely this weekend as a large trough approaches. High pressure over the West Coast will continue to slowly shift eastward into the latter part of the work week as a mid to upper-level trough approaches. Afternoon highs across the interior will still be warm this afternoon and again tomorrow afternoon with high pressure still in control over the region. A cool down is forecast for the latter part of the work week as the trough nears the West Coast.
Temperatures today will be below average due to an upper-level trough moving through the Northern Great Basin region. This trough will begin to move out of the area tomorrow, which will allow temperatures to warm back up to near normal values for the first day of June. Weak amplitude ridging will build in over the West Coast, enabling temperatures warm up further during the latter half of the week. Temperatures today will be below average due to an upper-level trough positioned over the northern Great Basin region. This trough will begin to lift out of the region tomorrow, allowing temperatures to warm back up to near normal values for the beginning of June.
Wednesday also appears to be mainly dry across the region, as an upper level ridge develops over Idaho, but a modestly unstable flow will still be over our area and could produce a few afternoon showers, mainly over the higher terrain.
645 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022 The main low pressure system is over the Northern Plains with a portion stretching back to the Great Basin. A cold front associated with this system has stretched from the Texas Panhandle to along the central Kansas/Oklahoma border into central Missouri.
Isolated showers were weakening over the Boise Mountains this evening as the upper level low that brought the area so much precipitation over the past several days moves off to the east.
There may be a few spots over Corson/Dewey county that could see the mercury slip down into the upper 30s late tonight (surface dewpoints currently between 32F and 40F over that area), but overall, low temperatures should settle down mostly into the low to mid 40s. A strong area of low pressure will continue pushing north-northeast, leaving behind cool and breezy conditions over this CWA.
737 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022 High pressure will generally prevail most of this week.
726 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022 A weakening cold front will sag southeast through the area late tonight into Wednesday morning. Southeast Michigan firmly entrenched late this afternoon within the higher magnitude warmth offered within existing deeper layer southwest flow fixated along the northwest flank of prevalent southeast upper ridging. Attention directed upstream, as a lingering source of vorticity - likely remnants of convection last night - works in combination with a southeast sagging weak frontal boundary or pre-frontal trough to engage the existing max instability axis draped from northern Illinois northeast across southern/central lake Michigan and far west-central lower MI. The Tri- cities/Saginaw Bay region most favorably positioned to sustain ongoing convection or offer some renewed expansion/organization given proximity to the highest instability, slightly better wind field and earlier prospective timing for activity to arrive.
Localized frost could occur, mainly in the low laying areas in the southwest. Tightly wound stacked low pressure sitting over southwestern Ontario will continue pushing off to the northeast through this evening, while high pressure nudges into the state tonight. The low will then retrograde back to the southwest a bit Wednesday retightening the pressure gradient. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s to the low 40s.
Much cooler and less humid air will then overspread the area behind the front.
Deep-layer high pressure will largely suppress convection on Wednesday with PoPs of 20% or less for most areas and 30% for the Lower Suwannee Valley. Deep-layer ridging north of the area should keep rain chances to a minimum during this period with some isolated storms perhaps forced by the sea breeze.
244 AM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022 A cold front will move through the region on Wednesday and hang up to the southeast keeping showers and thunderstorms in the area through Thursday. A cold front will then settle in from the north during the afternoon and evening, bringing shower and thunderstorm chances back to the forecast. Cooler overnight lows will be realized behind the front, especially north of I-80.
Wednesday we'll start off dry and warm but rain chances will pick back up by late afternoon particularly across northeast AR/MO Bootheel as upper ridging weakens/breaks down. The upper high/ridge begins to break down or really move south tonight and this allows a frontal system to move closer to the region on Wednesday. After the frontal system clears out of the area late Thursday, dry weather will return with some cooler temperatures through the beginning of the weekend.
829 PM PDT Tue May 31 2022 A warming trend will peak this week on Wednesday and Thursday with high temperatures above normal as a ridge of upper level high pressure slides east out of the area. By late week, an upper level low approaches the coast of southwest BC and will bring some cooling conditions as well as increased rain chances for Western Washington.
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Frontal boundary will clear the area overnight Thursday, leaving behind a period of somewhat cooler and drier weather through at least the first half of the weekend.
1010 PM MST Tue May 31 2022 Updated Aviation High pressure will result in continued dry conditions along with a warming trend through the rest of the week.
The upper air pattern remains active and progressive in nature with two upper lows well north of the area - one over central Canada and the other spinning over the northern Pacific.
416 AM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022 A cold front will push through the region today with showers and thunderstorms. High pressure finally builds back in at the end of the week and into this weekend. ***Severe thunderstorms possible today*** Ridge of high pressure that has produced hot and mostly dry conditions over the last few days, will flatten out today. Later this afternoon, another short wave and associated surface cold front approaches the region from the northwest. The cold front will become nearly stationary and slowly drift northward back into our region again for Thursday. Clouds and showers are expected through the day on Thursday and high temperatures will run about 10 degrees cooler than today, with most of the area in the low to mid 70s.
Highs in the 70s on Thursday will reach into the low 80s by the weekend.
An upper level ridge to the northwest of the area will move closer to the area on Wednesday. The upper ridge will weakens somewhat on Thursday as a weak upper trough moves across the Ohio Valley. The weaker upper ridge along with the approaching boundary will likely bring an increase in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms especially across northwest portions of the area by Thursday afternoon.
415 AM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022 An upper level ridge will break down today, allowing a weak cold front to sag across the region this afternoon and remain in the picture through Thursday.
Overnight lows will drop to the lower 70s across the region.
125 AM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022 High pressure will generally prevail most of this week.
Another round of storms will likely develop later in the day along an approaching cold front. Moisture advection ahead of the cold front will increase dewpoints and instability through the morning and early afternoon. Cloud cover and rain will limit daytime heating with highs in the low 80s in most locations. Rain and clouds early in the day will keep highs below normal with temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Cooler temperatures and lower humidity behind the front will make for a pleasant late afternoon/evening.
However, with the Subtropical Ridge overhead, they will be very few in number. A long advertised cold front will approach our area tonight. Again with the Subtropical Ridge nearly overhead, expect isolated to widely scattered coverage.