Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE WEAK 500MB LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
In addition to the isolated storms, excessive heat will also be a concern this afternoon as dewpoints have risen into the lower to even mid 70s, combining with temperatures in the 80s to low 90s and bringing heat indices into the upper 90s to lower 100s area- wide.
103 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015 EXPECTED SMALL DOSE OF COOLER ADVECTION OF NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW HAVING LITTLE IMPACT AS TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE EXPECTED LEVELS. /ISSUED 311 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/ QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN.
240 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015 A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S TO MID 90S.
WITH A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS A STRONGER UPPER WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND THE DAKOTAS. THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. RIDGE BY MID WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 12 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH THE WARMEST IN THE HAYS AREA.
1205 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYER THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS.
400 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015 ANOTHER WARM DAY EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS EVENING.
318 AM PDT THU OCT 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL LEAD TO WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW CROSSING THE DESERT SW AS THE NRN BRANCH OF THE JET CROSSES OVER THE NRN CONUS.
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLED INTO THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START IMPACTING THE REGION TOMORROW.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
1016 PM PDT WED OCT 7 2015 Drying is expected Thursday and Thursday night as high pressure builds back into the region. Evening update: The warm front that brought widespread light rain to the region has exited the area. Models continue to show a trend towards drier conditions through the night as boundary layer winds become light and the lower level saturated air mass begins to become more shallow. Lows in the lower to mid 50s for most towns will end up being 7-15 degrees above normal for this time of year. JW 06z TAFS: Abundant low level moisture and weak upslope flow into the higher terrain of northern Washington and Idaho is expected to result in abundant stratus tonight including KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW with a mix of IFR and MVFR conditions.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY AND TONIGHT.
356 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PASS TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
352 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT TO NEAR THE COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MAIN FEATURE DURING PERIOD WILL BE NRN STREAM SHRT WV TROF DIGGING INTO AREA LATE FRIDAY. WITH SRN PORTION OF TROF BECOMING CUT OFF.
149 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND BRING QUIET WEATHER. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE REGION. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY DRIFT OVER THE REGION THURSDAY RESULTING IN A DRY AND COOL DAY. THE COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH AND THEN BACK WEST OF THE AREA. WE WILL SEE A DECREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. WE'LL SEE SOME WRAP-AROUND INFLUENCES NORTH OF THE LOW AS OUR FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES EASTERLY TODAY AND FRIDAY. AS A STRONG WEST COAST RIDGE BUILDS INLAND. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH UNDER THE CONSOLIDATED HIGH CENTER.
THE OVERALL RIDGING PATTERN DOES BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT NOTED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS ALL IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. 39 MODELS DIFFER IN LATEST RUNS SLIGHTLY ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THE WEEKEND.
501 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 CURRENTLY - A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND SUBTLE LOWER PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS DRIVING A WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE KEYS. THIS HIGH AND THE LOWER PRESSURE IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL RESULT IN WEAKENING MOSTLY SOUTHEAST BREEZES. HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW CHANCE TONIGHT AS A MORE SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW AND INCREASING DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PUSH SOME ACTIVITY ORIGINATING OFF OF CUBA INTO THE ISLAND CHAIN. A MID LATITUDE TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND RIDGE FROM WEST GULF TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTHEAST CONUS TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH BUT PW VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 1. 5 INCHES DURING THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH. INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL BE MARGINAL WITH 400 TO 600J/KG CAPE VALUES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CLOSE TO NIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT MORNING SHIFTING WINDS BACK FROM THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR SAT NIGHT.
222 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.
As low level high pressure continues to push southeastward, low level flow will become more easterly and begin to return some moisture from over the Atlantic. With partly cloudy skies, temperatures will warm into the low to mid 80s once again.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY.
312 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW ATOP THE SONORA/CHIHUAHUA BORDER IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MORE OR LESS EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SHARPEN AND WILL ENHANCE LIFT LATE THIS EVENING. AS AN UA TROUGH SWINGING ESE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AIDS IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING.
302 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.
CONCUR WITH THE DETERMINISTIC NAM/GFS/ECMWF THAT THE UPPER LOW (WITH 500MB CENTER JUST WEST OF ELP PER MOST RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/STREAMLINE DATA) WL MOVE S/SW ACRS NWRN MEXICO DRG THE PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE MSA IN RESPONSE TO THE FOREGOING UPPER LOW/JET EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCEC.
407 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE.
Numerous to widespread showers and a few storms will then translate east across the CWA through the afternoon and evening hours as the upper system and associated cold front slide through.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL ANALYSIS HAD A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CWA RESULTING IN WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OVER THE ARKLAMISS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WAS OBSERVED OVER AROUND THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. 7 INCHES AS WELL AS A THATAE RIDGE AXIS AND SOME LOW TO MIDLEVEL LIFT. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING AS WE LOSE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DAYTIME HEATING AS WELL AS THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVING WEST OF CWA. FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER THE LOW TO MID LEVEL JET ENERGY WILL BE WEAK.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING TROUGHS OVER THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AS WELL AS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS WEAK FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES INTO OLD MEXICO AND PAC NORTHWEST SYSTEM CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY.
WITH MEAN TROUGHING EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK SHEER AND MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOWER OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALOFT. THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THURSDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE WEST. THE PATH OF THE TROUGH HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER THE LATEST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE DECREASED THE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THE FIRST ROUND WILL DEVELOP AS THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR SUNRISE WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW 40S FOR THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE AREA.
AS PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN OVER OUR REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO/SRN AZ/NM. DESPITE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW. OUR REGION REMAINS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WITH IT WILL COME A COLD FRONT AND SOME LOW-END CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS DURING FRIDAY.
242 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015 A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHEAST ARIZONA/SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER NORTH TEXAS WAS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTED TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY AND REACH THE BAJA PENINSULA SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. CURRENT UPPER AIR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT FOLLOWING BEHIND IT. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD NORTH TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL U.
627 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.
112 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY IN STORE BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH CLOUDS LATE TODAY AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SLOW THE FRONTS EXIT FRIDAY EVENING.
556 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
427 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015 THE UPPER CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AMPLE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. EVEN THOUGH THE PANHANDLES WILL BE ON THE VERY EDGE OF IT'S INFLUENCE THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE PRODUCED BY THE CLOSED LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TODAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT.
A cold front will move into Oklahoma from the north late in the forecast period, increasing thunderstorm chances at Northeast Oklahoma sites. /ISSUED 345 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015/ A very warm and somewhat humid day is in store today ahead of a cold front that will sweep across the area tonight and early Friday.
LARGE CUT-OFF LOW CENTERED OVER NRN MEXICO NEAR THE SERN AZ/SWRN NM BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT S/SW TOWARD THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH FRIDAY. COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES SHOULD DECREASE AS THE UPPER LOW CURVES MORE WESTWARD TOWARD THE PACIFIC. LIGHTER AMOUNTS BELOW 1/4 INCH ARE EXPECTED FARTHER EAST TO THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR.
245 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015 RATHER MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AT 07Z.
418 AM MDT THU OCT 8 2015 SADDLE POINT OR COL REGION OF THE UPPER TROUGH WELL TO OUR SOUTH WAS NOW PASSING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. A COLD FRONT MARKED BY RESPECTABLE PRESSURE RISES ACRS SERN MONTANA AND NERN WYOMING IS PROGGED BY MOST MODELS TO SLIP INTO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO AROUND 21Z TODAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE A WEAK WAVE RIDES OVER THE BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT.
319 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.
551 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.
AN U/L RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U. AND WESTERN CANADA TODAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL INDUCE AN EXTENSIVE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTH TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST U.
203 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH A FEW SPRINKLES OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH QUIET AND DRY WEATHER BEFORE A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON FRIDAY.
A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO BE DRAPED ACROSS WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST OREGON. WE WILL BE UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY BUT CONTINUE TO SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS. A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AS ENERGY FROM DYING HURRICANE OSO SWINGS INTO THE THROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THUS WILL SEE DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS THURSDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER. THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACNW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ON FRIDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF PACIFIC COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES FRIDAY.
700 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE OUR STRETCH OF QUIET AND DRY WEATHER FOR TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND THOUGH, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. STILL SEEING SOME BROKEN CLOUDS LINGERING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THE OVERALL TREND FOR TODAY WILL BE TOWARDS SUNNIER SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS OVERHEAD.
240 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015 ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLED INTO THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START IMPACTING THE REGION TOMORROW.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA TODAY RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR THE DISTRICT. BUT AS THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS SOMEWHAT DURING THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL ROTATE SOUTH AND THEN WEST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MID LEVEL RIDGE HAS SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL GULF AND NORTHERN GULF COAST WHILE 500MB LOW CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN AZ AND NM AT THIS HOUR. NO CHANGES TO THE LOWS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL FOCUS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 19Z. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE CLOUD COVER EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO ND FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL COVER THE REGION THURSDAY. THE NORTHLAND WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
342 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015 ANALYSIS AT 2 AM CDT DEPICTS A MODEST UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK INTO COLORADO. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT STRATUS SHOULD COVER MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING DUE TO DECENT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION.
ANOTHER DISTINCT FEATURE IS STRONG RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF BILLINGS ARE GOING TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS GOING TO CAUSE SOME MINOR UPSLOPE WHICH WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING LONGER. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND DOWNSLOPE SURFACE WINDS BRING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.
422 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.
A high pressure ridge will develop today and bring drier conditions however some clouds will linger over the region.
A STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW ALOFT APPEARS TO BE DRAWING WEAK DISTURBANCES IN FROM FAR SOUTH TX (AS PER WV LOOPS FROM AROUND THE BASE OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AROUND FAR WEST TX). WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. FROPA WILL BE AIDED BY THE RE- DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE (INCREASINGLY NWLY FLOW ALOFT) AS THE MAIN CLOSED LOW SLIDES BACK TO THE WEST. MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROF (EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NW- LY FLOW ALOFT) AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FCST SET TO MOVE IN TO SE TX AROUND NEXT TUES. 41 A LIGHT WIND REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.
355 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
619 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
450 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015 (Today and Tonight) Models are in good agreement this morning as to the track of the upper low now over the Desert Southwest. The center of the upper low is now moving south from southeastern Arizona into northern Mexico west of the Big Bend area. By tomorrow morning the center of the upper low will be over the southern portion of the Gulf of California. Precipitation associated with the upper low now extends over eastern New Mexico and the western Panhandle south into West Texas.
337 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015 ONE MORE DAY OF WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE UNUSUAL FOR MID-OCTOBER WITH A CUTOFF LOW SPINNING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
The proximity of the high along with a moist low level airmass will again result in patchy fog late tonight and early Thursday. An upper level trough axis will swing across the region Friday as the upper pattern amplifies. This allow Canadian high pressure to build southward in the wake of the exiting cold front. This will result in a considerably cooler day Friday.
316 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY IN STORE BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH CLOUDS LATE TODAY AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SLOW THE FRONTS EXIT FRIDAY EVENING.
A WARM FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE 3-8 DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN ON WED. AND WE WILL SEE TEMPS ANOTHER 5-8 DEGREES OF WARMING AS WE REMAIN UNDER A RIDGE ALOFT.
A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY TONIGHT THOUGH AS CENTER OF GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. AFTERNOON SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND THESE WILL BE CROSSED OVER TONIGHT ADDING TO POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. AN AMPLIFYING POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
312 AM MST THU OCT 8 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SINK SOUTH INTO MEXICO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LATEST WV IMAGERY AND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SONORA. RISING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL TRANSLATE INTO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REGION TODAY.
325 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE OUR STRETCH OF QUIET AND DRY WEATHER FOR TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND THOUGH, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. STILL SEEING SOME BROKEN CLOUDS LINGERING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THE OVERALL TREND FOR TODAY WILL BE TOWARDS SUNNIER SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS OVERHEAD.
THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN SASK WITH A LEE SWD THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS AND A CDFNT SW INTO ERN MT. WEAKEST STATIC STABILITY WILL BE ACROSS THE WRN CWA WHERE WE EXPECT THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP TO RESIDE AND WILL INCREASE POPS INTO THE HIGH CHC CAT THERE.
509 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015 LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS. WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST REGION. IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK INVERTED SFC TROF HAS PUSHED WWD INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL LA. CENTERED MOSTLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA INVOF OF WHERE THE WEAK SFC TROF AND HIGHEST PWATS WILL RESIDE. QUICK SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND.
626 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY IN STORE BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH CLOUDS LATE TODAY AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SLOW THE FRONTS EXIT FRIDAY EVENING.