Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The approaching cold front is well back over Texas with the rain and storms out in advance.
414 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Upper level analysis has strong compact low over the High Plains with ample cloud cover and precip across the area. Rain and snow continues across much of the forecast area with moderate to heavy accumulations across the higher elevations. At the surface, low pressure resides across south central South Dakota with cold front through the western portion of the state. Snowfall totals will end up around a foot in the higher elevations with up to 6 inches in the northern foot hills and much of the central Black Hills.
259 PM PDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Strengthening high pressure off of the Pacific Coast will bring decreasing winds and a warming trend going into the first half of this week. The main change in the weather however looks to arrive toward the second half of the weekend when much cooler temperatures are possible.
Conditions will remain generally quiet overnight, but will we will a weak warm front drift northward into the area overnight and Monday morning.
Dew points remain in the upper 70s with temperatures slowly falling through the lower 80s. A ridge dragging northward through Keys waters will result in continued light southeast to south breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
Will keep the High Wind Warning in effect until 7pm MDT. Highs should reach the lower 50s across northeast Colorado.
812 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Have allowed the High Wind Warning to expire and also cancelled the Red Flag Warning for the Palmer Divide earlier this evening. Will keep the High Wind Warning in effect until 7pm MDT. Highs should reach the lower 50s across northeast Colorado.
Cloud cover will continue to increase from west to east over the next few hours as a cold front approaches the CWA. Deeper low level moisture is currently just south of Interstate 20 corridor through central / eastern TX and will continue to drawn northward ahead of the advancing cold front. Data has remained consistent for several days in developing impressive wind fields across the region tonight including strong shear within the lowest levels. Trends within the past 24hrs have been for a more northward surge of moisture through eastern OK / western AR before the cold front passes. The event should remain rather progressive with the cold front clearing western AR well before sunrise Monday.
323 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Cold trough over Wyoming will be exiting the region today with a somewhat moist northwest flow prevailing across northern Utah through Monday.
Light precipitation will continue along a warm front tonight, mainly in the higher elevations of Baker County and in the West Central/Boise Mountains. Northwest flow aloft will bring a chance of showers across the far north on Monday, otherwise it will be dry and a little warmer with highs slightly below normal.
RAP40 analysis shows a tight low/mid lvl moisture gradient acrs central FL with moisture pooling inside the frontal trof: H100-H70 mean RH btwn 70- 80pct over the Treasure Coast/Lake-O region, decreasing to blo 50pct north of I-4. Temps aloft show a fairly stout thermal ridge in place with H70 temps btwn 10-11C and H50 temps btwn -3C/-5C.
624 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Cold front has begun to move across the area and will clear the area by late this evening leading to gusty NW winds behind the front. /issued 252 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019/ A decent upper level low has been spinning its way out of Wyoming and into Nebraska/South Dakota today. This feature will continue to move eastward this evening, shoving a cold front through most of the forecast area by midnight. Tomorrow is expected to be cooler, especially in the morning, but this is not a particularly strong front, so afternoon temps will top out at just a degree or two below normal.
Winds will gradually decrease this evening becoming light after midnight as a cold front approaches from the north.
805 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019 This evenings convective activity should come to an end by 01z to 02z, as high pressure begins to build over the area. High pressure will begin to build over the area, and tomorrow should be mainly sea breeze driven, with the convection occurring as the breezes collide in the interior. Expect the best chances for showers and storms this evening along the northern portions of SoFlo, especially around the Lake Okeechobee region, then quickly diminishing overnight as the low level jet and mid to upper level support are replaced by establishing high pressure.
947 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 A deep upper low is moving across the Central Plains this evening as a cold front pushes through the Southern Plains. Convection has blown up ahead of the cold front in OK with additional activity along the warm front extending into the ARKLATEX. The warm front extends east into NW MS and will lift north tonight as the cold front approaches. Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms as the warm front lifts through.
600 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Trough continues to move east this afternoon, with the center of the trough located in the far NW Nebraska panhandle. The NW flow regime will continue through the next 24 hours as the trough progresses east, with continued chances for light snow for the western mountain ranges and higher elevations.
High pressure will build across the intermountain West early this week, resulting in a warming trend. Temperatures will peak midweek with highs in the lower 90s across the lower deserts. A return to below normal temperatures is possible late in the week as a low pressure system drops southward through the Rockies. Behind this trough, temperatures and dewpoints across the region have been running a few degrees lower than they were yesterday. A ridge in the eastern Pacific will build eastward early this week.
Upper level analysis has strong compact low over the High Plains with ample cloud cover and precip across the area. Rain and snow continues across much of the forecast area with moderate to heavy accumulations across the higher elevations. At the surface, low pressure resides across south central South Dakota with cold front through the western portion of the state. Snowfall totals will end up around a foot in the higher elevations with up to 6 inches in the northern foot hills and much of the central Black Hills.
331 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Looking aloft, a strong cyclone located over the Nebraska panhandle will continue to move east towards South Dakota. For the rest of today, continued the High Wind Warning through 7 PM MDT / 8 PM CDT tonight, but there is still some uncertainty as to how low the winds will mix to the surface, in addition to, cloud cover. With overnight lows tonight and tomorrow night in the lower 30s.
/issued 624 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019/ Cold front has begun to move across the area and will clear the area by late this evening leading to gusty NW winds behind the front. /issued 252 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019/ A decent upper level low has been spinning its way out of Wyoming and into Nebraska/South Dakota today. This feature will continue to move eastward this evening, shoving a cold front through most of the forecast area by midnight. Tomorrow is expected to be cooler, especially in the morning, but this is not a particularly strong front, so afternoon temps will top out at just a degree or two below normal.
Warmer than normal for the remainder of this week.
748 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Dry conditions will persist through tonight with lows in the lower 50s. Temperatures then turn much cooler behind the front for the remainder of the week. Temperatures have warmed nicely across the area and will not fall off much tonight as influx of warmer air continues. Deepening low pressure will take shape to the southwest and track quickly NE our of Nebraska tonight and to near Lake Superior by Monday night as strong upper level trough continues to cut off and become negatively tilted. A pre frontal trough will quickly spread rainshowers into the area after 12Z, rapidly shifting east by 18-21Z. Strongly forced line of showers and possibly some rumbles of thunder will then accompany the strong cold front set to sweep in and clear the area by 6Z Tues.
534 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Upper level analysis has strong compact low over the High Plains with ample cloud cover and precip across the area. Rain and snow continues across much of the forecast area with moderate to heavy accumulations across the higher elevations. At the surface, low pressure resides across south central South Dakota with cold front through the western portion of the state. Snowfall totals will end up around a foot in the higher elevations with up to 6 inches in the northern foot hills and much of the central Black Hills.
609 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 A wind shift from the NNW will accompany a cold front over the next several hours for all terminals. In addition, thunderstorms are expected to develop along this cold front mainly near OKC/OUN and PNC.
639 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 The cold front continues to push eastward across eastern Nebraska through the overnight.
405 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2019 One low pressure system will move east of NE MT this evening as another weak disturbance drops SE across central Montana overnight bring increasing clouds and a slight chance of rain/snow mixed mainly affecting Phillips, Petroleum, Garfield, and Valley Counties.
No real changes to the forecast except to linger the low clouds a bit longer. The extent of low clouds and rate of dissipation beneath inversion/high pressure ridge axis may impact maxT on Monday. A wave of low pressure is progged to develop along the front near the Delmarva Tuesday evening, which should slow down the system's eastward progression enough to continue rain over the far eastern zones into early Tuesday night. It will turn mostly sunny and cooler for midweek, behind the departing system.
340 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019 A band of showers will overspread the area late morning into early aftn followed by showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening along a strong cold front. Thereafter some recovery likely ahead of strong sfc cold front this aftn. Cams solutions remain adamint on low topped convection developing along cold front w/some suggestion of a thin line event late through nrn IN which within a very strong kinematic wind field would pose some certain svr wind risk. Passage of moist/trailing mid level trough likely to support additional showers north by late morning through mid aftn and bumped pops a bit higher per good consensus signals.
Today-Tonight: Speedy NW flow aloft will prevail over the region, on the western periphery of a full-latitude trough progressing east across the MS River Valley. Tue-Tue night: Expect mostly clear skies, a westerly breeze, and a warming trend associated with H5 height rises in the wake of the aforementioned upper trough. A strong surface midlatitude cyclone sits over Lake Superior as another low pressure system develops over western Canada Tuesday.
The cold front associated with this storm system is pushing into eastern Kansas as of 02Z and should be through the forecast area by mid to late this morning. The far southern portions of the forecast area may climb to the lower 60s, depending on how quickly clouds spread southward and/or if they reach that far south.
1242 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019 The cold front continues to push eastward across eastern Nebraska through the overnight.
352 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019 Today into Tuesday: A vigorous mid/upper-level low pressure system continues to slowly slide northeast over southeast SD/northeast Nebraska. The main concern with this slowly departing system will be strong/gusty northwesterly winds behind a surface cold front that is forecast to surge southeast through the forecast area later this morning. Some uncertainty remains on how far south to take the advisory, and this may need to be modified by later shifts, but we feel we have the bulk of the highest gusts covered in the current advisory. High temperatures will range from upper 40s north to mid 50s south but will feel quite blustery compared to recent warmer days.
As of 0345Z, the cold front has passed the OKC metro and is approaching east-central Oklahoma where the line of severe thunderstorms are currently located from Holdenville-Wynnewood- Ardmore. Overnight low temperatures are expected to drop to the low 40s across far NW OK, the upper 40s across central OK, and low 50s across east-central OK. /issued 609 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019/ A wind shift from the NNW will accompany a cold front over the next several hours for all terminals. In addition, thunderstorms are expected to develop along this cold front mainly near OKC/OUN and PNC.
the exception is over the Pine Ridge area where minor snow accumulations are possible over the next few hours. Upper level analysis has strong compact low over the High Plains with ample cloud cover and precip across the area. Rain and snow continues across much of the forecast area with moderate to heavy accumulations across the higher elevations. At the surface, low pressure resides across south central South Dakota with cold front through the western portion of the state. Snowfall totals will end up around a foot in the higher elevations with up to 6 inches in the northern foot hills and much of the central Black Hills.
335 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019 Showers and thunderstorms ahead of an approaching cold front are beginning to push into the Mid-South at this time. High pressure will settle over the Mid-South for the middle of the week. The ECMWF and Canadian continue to show an upper level low pressure system developing. Although, tonight's run shows the upper low developing further to the southwest near El Paso, Texas.
Wind speeds should begin waning toward afternoon as the closed low to the north pulls away. Light qpf is a possibility in the wrap around on the backside of the low.
As a result, the forecast will delay the onset of categorical PoPs in the Valley until midnight when forcing along the cold front starts to enter the area. The cold front will exit Tuesday morning with advection of drier and cooler air following in the afternoon.
325 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019 Cool/dry conditions expected over the next couple of days behind a cold front that moved through the area overnight.
245 AM MDT Mon Oct 21 2019 Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a large trough over the central Part of Canada and the CONUS. A large ridge is beginning to develop up the west coast from California to central British Columbia. Farther west another trough/ridge couplet lies over the north Pacific. Today through Tonight: Northwest flow will bring dry and warm conditions with a weak mesoscale ridge arriving overnight.
122 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019 Moisture will increase ahead of an approaching cold front on Monday before the front crosses the area Tuesday.
High pressure aloft will expand east and bring drier and warmer air into the Great Basin Monday night through Tuesday.
As the low continues to propagate east, precipitation will refill the gaps. The biggest concern for winds though will be northwest winds on the backside of the low tonight through Monday night. Breezy, gusty northwest winds will linger from the James Valley east on Tuesday in the wake of the departing low pressure system.
The approaching cold front is well back over Texas with the rain and storms out in advance. Winds will increase during the next few hours as a strong cold front approaches the region. Look for thunderstorms to move across the mid state during the late morning and afternoon as the cold front sweeps across the area.
A rather tight pressure gradient develops in the wake of the low, so a breezy day is in store for the region with westerly winds of 10 to 20 mph and occasional gusts as high as 35 mph. Some slightly cooler temperatures are also expected with highs in the lower 60s for the most part, and perhaps near 70 over the far southeast where the cooler air will be last to arrive. Clear and cooler conditions are expected tonight, with lows around 40 and given wester to northwest winds around 10 mph, wind chills will be just in the lower to middle 30s by morning.
Despite a strong upper level trough pushing east across the Upper Midwest, a drier period is likely across western Kansas today through tonight as a much drier air mass is reinforced by a northwesterly downslope flow throughout the Western High Plains. As for temperatures, cooler air will spread southeast into western Kansas today in wake of a departing cold moving eastward across the Central Plains, in turn dropping H85 temperatures into the single digits(C) in central Kansas to around 10C in extreme southwest Kansas by this afternoon. Under mostly sunny skies, look for highs only up into the upper 50s(F) to around 60F in vicinity of the I-70 corridor in central Kansas and west central Kansas with the lower/mid 60s(F) further southeast into south central Kansas.
For the rest of today clouds and winds will increase ahead of deepening upper level trough to the west. Cold front will move into the western counties and KC Metro area this evening through about midnight expect showers and thunderstorms to develop west of area this afternoon and move into far western counties between 7 and 8 pm and affecting the KC Metro area between roughly 8 pm and midnight and then heading east overnight and will be east of the area by the early morning hours. Otherwise just a tad bit cooler Monday and Tuesday to start the work week with highs in upper 50s to near 60 and lows in 40s.
/issued 947 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019/ A deep upper low is moving across the Central Plains this evening as a cold front pushes through the Southern Plains. Convection has blown up ahead of the cold front in OK with additional activity along the warm front extending into the ARKLATEX. The warm front extends east into NW MS and will lift north tonight as the cold front approaches. Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms as the warm front lifts through.
Showers have developed between CRP and VCT early this morning and are expected to continue ahead of the cold front. Cold front is still on track around 15Z at COT and VCT, clearing all terminals by 18Z with north-northeasterly winds behind it. Winds will gradually decrease this evening becoming light after midnight as a cold front approaches from the north.
208 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019 Dry conditions will persist through tonight with lows in the lower 50s. Temperatures then turn much cooler behind the front for the remainder of the week. Temperatures have warmed nicely across the area and will not fall off much tonight as influx of warmer air continues. Deepening low pressure will take shape to the southwest and track quickly NE our of Nebraska tonight and to near Lake Superior by Monday night as strong upper level trough continues to cut off and become negatively tilted. A pre frontal trough will quickly spread rainshowers into the area after 12Z, rapidly shifting east by 18-21Z. Strongly forced line of showers and possibly some rumbles of thunder will then accompany the strong cold front set to sweep in and clear the area by 6Z Tues.
309 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019 Moisture will increase ahead of an approaching cold front today before the front crosses the area Tuesday.
253 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019 A line of showers and thunderstorms has developed along a warm front lifting through southeast Missouri and extreme southwest Kentucky. Surface analysis shows a strong cold front extending from north central Missouri to just east of Springfield into extreme northwest Arkansas. Increasing moisture behind the warm front and favorable wind fields should help thunderstorms keep their intensity as they move across our region. Gusty south winds can be expected ahead of the cold front today, becoming west and tapering off late today into this evening. Dry and cooler conditions can be expected tonight through Tuesday night. As the high moves east, a return of south to southwest winds will result in a warming trend.
421 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019 Under mostly clear skies and a steady southeast wind of 5 to 10 mph, temperatures are uniform in the lower 80s across the island chain. A deep layered western Atlantic ridge will build across South Florida and our region for the next couple of days. The aforementioned western Atlantic anticyclone will lift northward, while a couple of low level undulations associated with higher moisture content track westward and across our region.
108 AM MDT Mon Oct 21 2019 Today-Tonight: Speedy NW flow aloft will prevail over the region, on the western periphery of a full-latitude trough progressing east across the MS River Valley. Tue-Tue night: Expect mostly clear skies, a westerly breeze, and a warming trend associated with H5 height rises in the wake of the aforementioned upper trough. A strong surface mid-latitude cyclone sits over Lake Superior as another low pressure system develops over western Canada Tuesday.
1008 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Trough continues to move east this afternoon, with the center of the trough located in the far NW Nebraska panhandle. The NW flow regime will continue through the next 24 hours as the trough progresses east, with continued chances for light snow for the western mountain ranges and higher elevations.
229 AM PDT Mon Oct 21 2019 Strengthening high pressure off of the Pacific Coast will bring decreasing winds and a warming trend going into the first half of this week.
High pressure over the eastern Pacific will result in a warming trend.
Pacific high pressure will bring mainly dry conditions to the Great Basin this week.
423 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019 Sfc cold front has now passed entirely east of the CWA, which extends out of low pressure centered over SD/NE/IA. CAA as a result of these winds will keep temperatures cooler than the last few days with highs in the mid to upper 50s for most places, up to the low 60s in east central KS. While not as strong as Monday, the pressure gradient throughout the atmospheric profile remains tight as the strong upper low lifts northward into the Canadian provinces.
/issued 307 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019/ An upper level ridge is building in across the region as a weak "warm" front is beginning to lift across the peninsula, leading to increased mid-level cloud cover to start off the day. While a thunderstorm is not impossible today, the likelihood seems low, given the thermodynamics of warm fronts and also the fact that the atmosphere is warm. As Tuesday arrives, another front will be approaching the area, dragged by a trough axis beginning to negatively tilt over the Great Lakes region.
/Issued 325 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019/ Cool/dry conditions expected over the next couple of days behind a cold front that moved through the area overnight.
Sfc cold front has now passed entirely east of the CWA, which extends out of low pressure centered over SD/NE/IA. CAA as a result of these winds will keep temperatures cooler than the last few days with highs in the mid to upper 50s for most places, up to the low 60s in east central KS. While not as strong as Monday, the pressure gradient throughout the atmospheric profile remains tight as the strong upper low lifts northward into the Canadian provinces.
The only exception to warmer and drier weather this week will be a chance of very light showers for Coos and Douglas Counties early Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon accompanying a dissipating cold front. The high will weakly and briefly build into our area today with dissipating clouds and noticeablely warmer temperatures. Attributes emblematic of the weakness of the aforementioned cold front on Tuesday will be the limited coverage of a chance of showers north of the Umpqua Divide, the briefness of an increase of clouds (mainly afternoon and evening for a majority of the area), and generally just a few degrees of cooling of high temperatures on the west side compared to today. Meantime, highs on the east side may not be any cooler at all.