Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
HAVE AN AREA OF RAIN STRETCHING FROM REDIG TO AREAS BETWEEN MOBRIDGE AND PIERRE. ADDITIONALLY GUIDANCE SHIFTS THE WHOLE SYSTEM SOUTH AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR INTRUDE INTO THE NORTHEAST. JONES/LYMAN/STANLEY COUNTIES ARE LIKELY TO SEE THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY EXITING THIS CWA BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPS AND WETTER SNOW SHOULD KEEP ANY BLOWING TO A MINIMUM ONCE THE SNOW STOPS. A WEAK LOW MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY WILL GENERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT WHICH ALONG WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL POP TEMPS BACK INTO THE 50S FOR THURSDAY.
408 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 Today will consist of a variety of weather concerns as a deepening upper low approaches and enters the area throughout the day. The low-level jet which has remained fixed over the Southern and Central Plains will persist ahead of the eastward moving storm system. Once the dryline enters the CWA in the late afternoon and moisture does finally deepen, thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the boundary in the warm sector as a warm front will also lift into southern Iowa.
TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR RANGED FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOW 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE MIDSOUTH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST TO AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST.
406 AM MDT WED MAR 23 2016 STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS RAMPING UP EARLY THIS MORNING AS UPPER LOW LOOKS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF DENVER AREA.
THE TROF IS MOVING EAST AND PRECIP HAS LARGELY ENDED. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST MONTANA, ALLOWING SNOW TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE VALLEYS THERE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH BREEZY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS.
As low level ridging slides off the eastern seaboard this morning, our local low level flow will become from the south. These southern winds will be breezy this afternoon with a tight pressure gradient in place between the developing low and the exiting high pressure.
By 12z the front will be entering our western most counties as the low heads into NW Illinois, with the upper system over NRN Missouri.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOST NOTABLY WARMER RANGING FROM THE LOW-MID 60S OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST TO LOW 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST.
351 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
As winds become light to calm, temperatures will fall into the lower 40s across most of the forecast area under clear skies. A cold front associated with the system will bring rain back to the area Thursday with the front lingering across the CWA through Thursday night. The low level shear with the system is not impressive, only 20kts.
107 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE CONTINUING EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER WESTERN KANSAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
A BROADENING WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SUNSHINE STATE AND WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS INTENSIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A DEEP TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SUNSHINE STATE WILL RETREAT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ALLOWING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITHIN WARM AIR ADVECTION BELOW 700 MB. CONSIDERBLE UNCERTAINTY LIES SINCE BOTH MAV AND ESPECIALLY ECE MOS GUIDANCE HAVE BULLISH POPS WHEN THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF A SUBTLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRUSHES THROUGH WHILE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW DECELERATES APPRECIABLY.
BETWEEN 00Z-06Z THE UPPER LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH DROPS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN AND SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER THE SNOW. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PROGGED TO BRING SUBSTANTIAL SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE SHORT TERM.
STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE OFF THE COLORADO ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING TO WRN KANSAS MIDDAY AND NORTH CNTL KANSAS END OF TODAY. DRYLINE/TROUGH/PACIFIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS. SOME CONCERN INITIALLY THAT LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS TODAY 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY MIGHT LIMIT MIXING POTENTIAL. CANADIAN COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING. MUCH QUIETER PATTERN ENSUES ON THURSDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY AND SERVING TO EASE WINDS ACCORDINGLY.
We'll have another warm and breezy day today as we continue to sit between high pressure off the East Coast and low pressure over the central Plains. Low pressure near Kansas City this evening will advance to the Detroit area by Thursday evening, pulling its cold front through southern Indiana and central Kentucky tomorrow afternoon and evening. Low freezing heights suggest some small hail may be possible as well.
630 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
443 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 A MID AND UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL TRACK EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW COULD BRING SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OR VIRGA SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING.
Arrival of cooler mid-level temperatures will eventually allow for convection to develop along the dryline by late afternoon/early evening across northwest AR into southeast OK. Cooler weather will settled in for Thursday.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LOW WINDING UP OVER ERN EARLY THIS MRNG. UPPER LOW WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EWD TODAY TO NEAR THE NCNTRL KS/SCNTRL NEB STATE LINE BY LATE AFTN. WILL KEEP THE WARNING IN PLACE FOR CAMPBELL COUNTY WY AS WELL AS THE NRN/CNTRL BLKHLS AND NERN FOOTHILLS WHERE TOTALS MAY APPROACH 6 INCHES (HIGHER IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS). DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WAVE BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.
153 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
640 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY. WARM FRONT IS NORTH OF THE FA THEREFORE EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA TODAY.
333 AM PDT WED MAR 23 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER THE HIGH RES SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A FEW HOURS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE.
This low continues to deepen as a strong upper level low pressure system and associated upward vertical motion approaches the High Plains from the west. A strong cold front will be entering far western Kansas by midday and sweeping rapidly eastward through the afternoon hours. Still we could see light rain developing especially in areas closer to the upper low track and behind the cold front. The next shift may want to monitor this trend for any possible extension of the High Wind Warning. There will be a few mild days to round out the week as the High Plains will be in between systems.
LARGE E-W ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM WELL OFFSHORE NC/SC WSW INTO NORTH CTRL FL. WARMER CONDS ON TAP WITH A TAD MORE HUMIDITY IN THE AIR. PCLDY AND WARMER TONIGHT WITH MINS RANGING FROM A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 60F WEST OF I-95 TO THE M-U60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE INTO LATE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.
1126 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016 CLASSIC NEGATIVELY TILTED DIGGING TROUGH WITH JET ON THE BACK SIDE YET WILL CLOSE OFF OVER CENTRAL WYO AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE REDEVELOPING SEWD OVER NE CO WED MORNING. BEST FORCING WILL LIKELY BE ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW AND CENTERED OVER THE WRN END OF ZONE 19. WRN NATRONA AND CPR MTN WILL SEE THE HIGHER AMTS OVER A FOOT WITH PROBABLY MORE IN THE 5-8 INCHES AROUND CPR WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR CPR MTN AND TO THE WEST.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS TODAY. COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWING SOME SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE.
AND THE SECOND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH AND COUPLED UPPER JET TONIGHT.
213 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 5H ANALYSIS DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF WSW FLOW ACROSS THE SRN/SERN US IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THRU THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SFC, LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST TO THE MS RIVER. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS SITUATED FROM THE WRN ATLANTIC BASIN ACROSS FL AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND SUGGESTS A SLOWER COLD FRONT, AND THAT AN INITIAL AREA OF CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY AREA ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER THURSDAY AFTN AND EVENING.
422 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY. WARM FRONT IS NORTH OF THE FA THEREFORE EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA TODAY.
1234 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 LATEST NAM/RAP BUFKIT MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT. FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE HAVE ADDED THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. OBSERVER REPORTED FREEZING DRIZZLE NEAR LANSFORD EARLIER THIS EVENING IN AREA OF ELEVATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA. THE 12 UTC GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE PORTRAYS A SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW INCREASING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR TONIGHT.
118 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL A LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.
MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS REMAIN COUPLED DRAMATICALLY SLOWING THE DROP IN TEMPS OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND SOUTH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LEND SUPPORT FOR PRECIP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WEAK INSTABILITY IS A POTENTIAL AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY.
THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS BOTH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR WEST AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS LATE TONIGHT DUE TO A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL WORK TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE CWA BY TOMORROW MORNING. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD DROP RH VALUES SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE LOW TEENS.
ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT IS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS ACROSS MOST AREAS. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE JUST WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDNIGHT. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN U. WE DO EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT ENTERS AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
THE WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE BEFORE DAWN.
STARTING OUT THE DAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S BODES WELL FOR ANOTHER GOOD WARM-UP TODAY, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S (OR SOME 8 TO 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL). SOUTH WINDS WILL BE GUSTY, JUST LIKE YESTERDAY, AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER TIGHT BETWEEN A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST.
KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND EVEN SOME FURTHER INLAND LOCATIONS. WHILE MOST OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE DRY WEATHER DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.
300 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 THE FORECAST AREA WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING INTO WEST CENTRAL MANITOBA AT 07Z. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT POP/QPF/SNOWFALL GRADIENT OVER NW WI WITH THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH AND THE MOIST AIR TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE FOCUS REMAINS ON PRICE COUNTY WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS/QPF/SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE REST OF THE REGION.
Front will remain stationary early this morning, then will tend to edge back northward a bit as low pressure begins to approach from the west. but will remain in the lower 60s across the far north around Galesburg and Lacon. Low pressure will track from Kansas City this evening to near Moline by Thursday morning. NAM develops a broken line of convection well ahead of the trailing cold front across western Missouri. While primary line of storms will likely weaken and push into Indiana late tonight, the actual cold front will remain west of the Mississippi River until mid to late Thursday morning.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION FOR ONE MORE DAY.
144 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND STALL.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL LIMIT WARMING TODAY BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT 2 TO 4 DEGRESS WARMER THAN YESTERDAY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
Tight pressure gradient remains in place east and south of the low into the Missouri Ozarks where we are maintaining a wind advisory over far western MO and extreme southeast Kansas currently. For today, upper low will continue to track east into Kansas with previously mentioned jet streak beginning to round the base of the low and track northeast across eastern Kansas. Will continue wind advisory/Red Flag warning for the western two tiers of counties today with tight pressure gradient ahead of the low. High pressure will then build into the area on Thursday as the upper wave lifts northeast out of the area. It will turn colder again Thursday night as high pressure builds into the area and have freezing or sub freezing temperatures again across the area.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY RETURN.
343 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WEST THIS MORNING. OVER NORTH DAKOTA HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS PRODUCING AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THIS MORNING TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. WHILE IN THE NORTH THEY WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME OR A LITTLE WARMER.
326 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION AND NORTHERN GULF OF MAINE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHERN MAINE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL KS/CO BORDER WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EAST ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR TODAY AS A POTENT DISTURBANCE EJECTS FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. MOIST RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF CLOUDS THIS MORNING AND MAY MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS ENOUGH TO YIELD SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER/MORE COMPLEX TERRAIN OF WESTERN ARKANSAS TODAY. AND THE DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADO THREAT WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER THE LOWEST PARTS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZE OR NOT.
352 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015 ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z SURFACE DATA SHOWED A WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH FLOW ALONG THE LEE SIDE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN WYOMING.
342 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015 A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD TODAY WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. TO THE LOWER 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION.
ELSEWHERE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. BUT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX BY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FM CO. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1005MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER RIGHT ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI BORDER WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEW ORLEANS TO PENSACOLA FLORIDA.
COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL LOW PATTERN WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. THIS AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH NORTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA.
454 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA WAS UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. REINFORCING THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PULLS ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN TOWARD THE U. FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 40S BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA ON GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AS THE LOW PULLS INTO ONTARIO CANADA. MODELS SHOWING DEFORMATION/WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION SWINGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS LOWS DIP TO NEAR FREEZING/MIDDLE 30S.
334 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015 CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS ALREADY OPENED UP AND IS LIFTING NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF THIS TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST AND DAMPING OUT SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. DECENT 850MB WINDS WILL KEEP THINGS A BIT GUSTY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER SOME OF THE HIGHER RIDGES MAY SEE BRIEF GUSTS STRONG ENOUGH TO KNOCK OVER A TREE OR TWO WITH THE WET SOILS. 20 MAIN COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE CWFA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW. A FEW PLACES EAST MAY GET A TAD COOLER WILL THE COOLER AIR LURKING INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS.
SO PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY STICK TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON DIPPING TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AT MANY LOCATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH ARE STILL IN AN ACTIVE GROWING SEASON.
202 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
Some of the high resolution models even suggest that portions of east central KY will see at least a few hours of dry weather this evening, though where the cutoff will be remains to be seen. A stable layer at the surface should keep the highest winds from mixing down, however.
WE SHOULD SEE SOME CHILLY READINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MANY AREAS AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING.
237 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015 A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A DAMPENED TROUGH IS SHIFTING ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A WEAK FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION BY MID WEEK. WINDY AND WARM TEMPERATURES ARE ONGOING AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARDS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES. A NEAR REPEAT OF CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX HIGHS AND LESS CLOUD COVER GIVEN DRIER VERTICAL PROFILES FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS.
CYCLONE WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. BRISK MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
AND COLD FRONT PUSHES IN AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA TO THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
308 AM PDT TUE OCT 27 2015 SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY UNDER WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE.
637 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015 STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN LATER TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST LIFT REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST AND A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE RIDGES WILL PROVIDE DOWNSLOPING/DRYING ACROSS LOCATIONS TO THE WEST OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE SURFACE FEATURE WILL PHASE WITH AN UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HAVE INCREASED WINDS ALONG AND DIRECTLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP MIXING LAYER AND PLENTY OF WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.
THE PARENT CYCLONE WAS CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA. WHILE A DEEP LAYER MEAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM MEXICO. LOCAL MESOSCALE ANALYSIS -- A CHANNEL OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOUISIANA CYCLONE TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. FORECASTS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT -- WE EXPECT A PRETTY QUICK CHANGE FROM FRESH SOUTHEAST BREEZES THIS MORNING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT AS A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ABANDONED BY BOTH UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND THE PARENT SURFACE CYCLONE.
1109 PM PDT MON OCT 26 2015 More showery conditions are expected overnight across parts of the Inland Northwest before drier and more stable conditions set up for Tuesday with a brief period of high pressure.
A WEAK AND PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE OZARKS WEDNESDAY.
422 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015 A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
126 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE REGIONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE WEEKEND RAIN EVENT SWEEPING NEWD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS WILL FINALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING TO THE LOWER 60S.