Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
358 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Shower and storm activity continues to dissipate in area coverage this afternoon as the main focus "the upper level low" continues to slowly slide to the east and northeast into the central US. Tomorrow will see temperatures into the lower 70s with a bit of light fog in some areas.
Moist southerly return flow on the western fringes of Bermuda high pressure will support a summer-like pattern for central NC starting today. Because of this very moist air(dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s), MLCAPE values across the southeastern portions of the forecast are already around 1000-1500 J/Kg. Largely driven by heating and the onshore flow, scattered rain chances are expected to spread south to north, The subtropical ridging centered over the SE US should limit convective rain chances somewhat. Generally a persistence forecast will be followed with central NC remaining under the influence of Bermuda high pressure.
Today's high temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s. Breezy and gusty west winds behind the cold front has the Lake Wind Advisory well in place. Upper ridging will extend into the Northern High Plains for the next couple of days with a warming trend in temperatures expected.
1249 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021 A relatively unorganized mid and upper low pressure system is plodding through the ArkLaTex. That said, there looks to be enough instability and forcing from the low pressure system to the south to kick off some isolated shower or thunderstorms during the afternoon.
A trough is on track to push across the central Plains this evening which will aid in isolated thunderstorm development. Quiet weather will then return for the rest of tonight and into tomorrow morning as an upper level high tracks through the upper Plains.
Synoptically speaking for today, the upper level low that has been over Texas the past several days will be lifting to the northeast overnight tonight into Monday.
930 AM MDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Cooler and stable Pacific air has spread over the region since last night's cold front, under zonal flow aloft. Temps today will be significantly cooler than the past few days. JKL A cold front has moved through the entire area, pushed along by an upper trough moving across the state. All of this will lead to a cooler and drier day. Northwest winds will be a little gusty this morning (especially over southeast Montana) behind the cold front. Monday will be dry with slightly warmer temperatures, under a dry southwest flow aloft.
Aloft, ridging is dominating the region, which was reflected in the 00Z KEY RAOB with drier air located in the mid- levels. From synopsis, A dome of high pressure centered over the Atlantic will be the predominant weather feature for the next five days. Winds will trend downwards beginning mid week as the ridge weakens and shifts southwards across northern Florida.
The forecast focus remains on the progression of the upper low through Tues. A moist, almost maritime tropical atmosphere continues to stream into the region as a slow moving upper low continues to spin across southern OK/north TX.
AC Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 81 69 84 70 / 50 70 60 70 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 83 69 84 69 / 40 70 50 70 30 Oak Ridge, TN 68 82 67 83 68 / 40 70 50 70 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 82 66 83 65 / 30 70 40 70 30.
639 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Latest surface analysis shows a weak cold front from near Fargo, ND to Chamberlain to Sydney, NE, evident by a wind shift to the north-northwest. Given very warm temperatures today, nighttime lows will only drop into the upper 60s, but could see some values down to the lower 60s across central SD. Today's cold front re-establishes itself tomorrow as a northward racing warm front as warm-air advection and 500 hPa ridging expand across the immediate forecast area.
The low level southerly flow will strengthen to 30-40 knots tonight. Concur with the deterministic runs that the upper low will continue to lift slowly toward the E/NE during the period, with subsidence over the CWA during the period.
520 PM MDT Sun Jun 6 2021 A slow moving upper low continues its march through the Southern Plains today. The cold front has surged south of the area and extends from far eastern ND through central SD and back along the NE border into central WY. Breezy and cooler conditions today behind the front, although winds will decrease later this afternoon as the pressure gradient weakens. Gusty winds and large hail will be the primary threats, although a tornado is possible closer to the warm front as it pushes northward across the northeastern portions of the CWA/ND border.
548 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through late week. High pressure will continue to be the predominant surface feature through midweek.
622 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through late week. High pressure will continue to be the predominant surface feature through midweek.
GAH AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: Now, into a period of calmer weather for a few days as post- frontal high pressure has pushed away precipitation and most instability. Monday, temperatures rebound back up into the 80s under a re- building ridge of warmer high pressure from the south with no precipitation.
/EC/ Prior discussion below: Tomorrow: A cutoff low is progged to have slowly made its way into southwest Missouri, however, the associated trough axis will extend to the Gulf Coast. High temperatures tomorrow will be governed by cloud cover and coverage of precipitation, but highs will generally range from the low to mid 80s.
535 PM MDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Updated Aviation Discussion Slightly cooler than normal temperatures and periods of gusty west to southwest winds will continue through Monday.
Generally a persistence forecast will be followed with central NC remaining under the influence of Bermuda high pressure.
An upper level trough will stall over the northwest U.
/issued 235 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): High pressure continues to build across Deep South Texas with gusty SSE winds along the coast continuing into Monday night. Slightly warmer temperatures Monday afternoon with similar humidity values will push heat indices to 112 or 113 as well for Zapata and Starr, with another Heat Advisory potentially needed. A Wind Advisory may be needed as well Monday afternoon along the lower Texas coast as the pressure gradient tightens a little more.
/issued 358 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021/ Shower and storm activity continues to dissipate in area coverage this afternoon as the main focus "the upper level low" continues to slowly slide to the east and northeast into the central US. Tomorrow will see temperatures into the lower 70s with a bit of light fog in some areas.
658 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 There is an ongoing increase in mid/high level clouds across Se Mi this evening, associated with a weak upper low over the OK/AR border region. Very warm and increasingly humid conditions will persist as upper ridging remains in place across the region. Low level moisture will increase as upper low pressure over TX/OK drifts north and undercuts this ridge with an appreciable surge of Gulf of Mexico fed moisture working around the east side of this system into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Over the next several days, this low will slowly migrate north and northeast towards the area, developing into an open wave system with time.
The few showers that managed to pop along the ridges and in central Ohio are fading with the loss of daytime instability.
728 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Aviation -Humid with scattered showers and storms this week -Humid with scattered showers and storms this week Closed upper low currently over OK lifts very slowly north over the next few days, reaching nrn Il/srn Lwr MI by midweek. Several vorticity maxima moving northward on the eastern side of the approaching upper low/trough will be impacting srn Lwr MI over the next few days, providing frequent impetuses for scattered showers and tstms. The idea of a backdoor cold front late in the week has been slowly fading but some drier air via a Hudson Bay high could still be seeping in from the northeast by Fri-Sat if/when the persistent upper low finally shears out or departs.
The upper level low slowly weakens and moves northeastward as ridging builds in in northern Mexico and Texas. Guidance does show that the ridge to our southeast will build into the CONUS, but uncertainty remains on how quickly it builds. Also have a warming trend for the high temperatures as the week passes.
A broad upper level trough continues to slowly circulate across the Southern Plains with upper level ridging across Florida. Diurnally driven showers and storms are expected again tomorrow as a series of weak vort maxes move through the more broad trough. Currently expecting little to no shear in the low to mid levels with 0-6km bulk shear vectors around 15-20kts along with marginal ML CAPE that maxes out at around 1000 J/kg with slightly higher values across south central Indiana. The models continue to suggest an upper trough or weak upper low lingering across Indiana and Illinois.
928 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Strong Bermuda high pressure off the southeast coast will dominate the weather through the middle of the week. A cold front will approach from the north and east during the second half of the week. Bermuda high will remain in tact while an upper-level ridge remains along the southeast and Mid-Atlantic Coast.
700 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Summer weather pattern continues with just minimal chances for The overall pattern reflects a couple of low pressure systems to the west. and a closed low was located in the southern plains in eastern OK. As we head into tonight, the souther plains upper low pressure system will continue to gradually lift to the northeast and could see some low clouds work northward from KS.
/issued 322 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021/ GOES-16 Satellite trends place a cut-off upper level low over Eastern Oklahoma.
An upper low over Oklahoma was helping send deep mid/upper level moisture across the Deep South.
Deep southerly flow to continue across the area between an upper low over the Southern Plains and a ridge off the east coast. Highs on Monday will be mostly in the lower 80s. Global models continue to show the majority of the central and eastern CONUS remaining under a long-wave ridge through a good chunk of the week as the jet stream primarily resides across Canada. Southwesterly flow associated with the low will pump in warm, humid air out of the Gulf - providing a tropical-like air mass across the Ohio Valley. A subtle shift in the pattern is expected near the middle of the weekend as a cold frontal boundary drops out of Canada.
604 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Upper level trough will continue to slowly lift northeastward towards forecast area with increasing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico over the next 24 to 36 hours. Better chances of showers and storms Monday afternoon due to peak daytime heating and the upper level trough/cutoff low moving into southwestern MO with the region in a favorable area for increased activity. The majority of the deterministic and ensemble models, have the upper level trough continue to slowly drift and weaken as it moves towards the lower Great Lakes region. As the trough weakens and shifts east of region, the upper level ridge will build in with warmer and drier air advecting in.
High pressure will remain well out in the Atlantic Ocean with the ridge axis to our north through midweek keeping a southeast to east flow across the waters, except shifting to onshore with the sea breeze near the coast during the afternoons. Late in the week the ridge axis will drift south with a more southwest to west flow setting up.
Upper low to our west remains the story, and will continue to be the next bunch of days. This upper low has weakened just slightly, and the center has pushed north, now situated over OK.
853 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through late week. A warm and very humid night is in store with lows ranging from the lower-mid 70s inland with mid- upper 70s at the coast and beaches. High pressure will continue to be the predominant surface feature through midweek.
Concur with the deterministic runs that the upper low will continue to lift slowly toward the E/NE during the period, with subsidence over the CWA during the period.
943 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Although, shower coverage this evening has been sparce, all convective allowing models support increasing coverage overnight as an upper impulse ejects NNE of the southern Plains upper low and across central Indiana. A broad upper level trough continues to slowly circulate across the Southern Plains with upper level ridging across Florida. Diurnally driven showers and storms are expected again tomorrow as a series of weak vort maxes move through the more broad trough. Currently expecting little to no shear in the low to mid levels with 0-6km bulk shear vectors around 15-20kts along with marginal ML CAPE that maxes out at around 1000 J/kg with slightly higher values across south central Indiana. The models continue to suggest an upper trough or weak upper low lingering across Indiana and Illinois.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with a slow moving upper low that has affected the area for the last several days have mostly dissipated as the sun has set this evening.
Latest IR imagery and upper air data indicate an upper level low pressure system over Oklahoma early this afternoon. As this upper level low slowly moves northeast into Missouri over the next 24 hours, we will continue to see periods of shower and some thunderstorms rotate north as we remain on the eastern side of this system. Latest model guidance suggests a fairly prominent short wave trough lifting north into the area during the late evening and early overnight hours. By Monday morning, the main upper level low pressure system will be parked over west central Missouri. This low will slowly move north northeast and be in a weakening state through the day on Monday and into Monday night.
Can't rule out a spotty shower this evening with the juicy air mass in place, but better rain chances return after midnight as the low-level jet cranks up. For now, plan to keep 40-50% PoP coverage for the latter half of the overnight period, with the highest chances generally along and west of I-65. This will push daily dew points into the low 70s and precipitable water values to near 2".
1028 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Upper level trough will continue to slowly lift northeastward towards forecast area with increasing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico over the next 24 to 36 hours. Better chances of showers and storms Monday afternoon due to peak daytime heating and the upper level trough/cutoff low moving into southwestern MO with the region in a favorable area for increased activity. The majority of the deterministic and ensemble models, have the upper level trough continue to slowly drift and weaken as it moves towards the lower Great Lakes region. As the trough weakens and shifts east of region, the upper level ridge will build in with warmer and drier air advecting in.
Continued warm and humid with a chance of afternoon and early Upper level ridging is forecast to remain strong over the SE states through mid-week. The ridge axis runs from SSW to NNE along the coast. Upper ridging will continue in place, but with the ridge axis expected to be over portions SC and eastern NC.
(Today and tonight) The upper-level low that has been in place across the southern and central plains for the past few days will slowly start to move eastward today as a ridge starts to build in over the southern Rockies and High Plains.
Fair and warm conditions are expected overnight across most if not all of the region under anomalous upper level ridge. Min temps tonight should be 4-6 deg F warmer than last night's and will vary from near 60F over the northwest mountains, to around 70F across the Lower Susq Valley. A deep southerly flow between Bermuda High and upper low over the Miss Valley will advect much higher PWAT air of 1.
Although, shower coverage this evening has been sparce, all convective allowing models support increasing coverage overnight as an upper impulse ejects NNE of the southern Plains upper low and across central Indiana. A broad upper level trough continues to slowly circulate across the Southern Plains with upper level ridging across Florida. Diurnally driven showers and storms are expected again tomorrow as a series of weak vort maxes move through the more broad trough. Currently expecting little to no shear in the low to mid levels with 0-6km bulk shear vectors around 15-20kts along with marginal ML CAPE that maxes out at around 1000 J/kg with slightly higher values across south central Indiana. The models continue to suggest an upper trough or weak upper low lingering across Indiana and Illinois.
316 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Quiet conditions continue to prevail across the region in the wake of a departing cold front, with current temperatures hovering in the 60s to low 70s. By daybreak, expect the aforementioned cold front to re-establish itself as a northward moving warm front, allowing mostly sunny skies and quiet conditions to once again prevail throughout the day. While southerly winds should be notably lighter than yesterday, still have highs climbing into the low to mid 90s with the aid of WAA and strong upper level ridging.
There is a small chance that thunderstorms near the high plains favored topographic initiation points could venture into extreme western Kansas late this evening. Highs will vary from the mid 80s in central Kansas to the lower 90s in far western Kansas. North and east of this low, the winds will be more backed to the southeast (upslope) in the afternoons as pressures fall on the higher terrain diurnally, allowing moisture to wrap around the low to the west across western Kansas.
1217 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Summer weather pattern continues with just minimal chances for The overall pattern reflects a couple of low pressure systems to the west. and a closed low was located in the southern plains in eastern OK. As we head into tonight, the souther plains upper low pressure system will continue to gradually lift to the northeast and could see some low clouds work northward from KS.
328 AM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through late week. Today: Aloft, the pattern will look quite similar to Sunday with an upper low to the west and a ridge centered right along the coast from the Mid Atlantic to Florida. The main difference is that the ridge will be nudged a bit further west than yesterday, placing the forecast area more directly under it and with higher heights. Then, with the ridge aloft, this initial activity should wane and then afternoon convection should be more focused across interior southeast Georgia. The forecast area will remain on the western periphery of high pressure through the period. Aloft, ridging will prevail over the Southeast.
Chances of rain should diminish a bit mid week as the upper ridge strengthens and deeper moisture shifts to the north.
especially today when heat index values in the Finger Lakes region will push into the low to mid 90s.
1158 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Latest surface analysis shows a weak cold front from near Fargo, ND to Chamberlain to Sydney, NE, evident by a wind shift to the north-northwest. Given very warm temperatures today, nighttime lows will only drop into the upper 60s, but could see some values down to the lower 60s across central SD. Today's cold front re-establishes itself tomorrow as a northward racing warm front as warm-air advection and 500 hPa ridging expand across the immediate forecast area.
340 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across parts of northeast OK on the southwestern flank of broad upper level low, which was centered near OK/KS/MO borders.
903 PM MDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Forecast area is under southwest flow aloft as upper low approaches WA coast. Gusty winds and large hail will be the primary threats, although a tornado is possible closer to the warm front as it pushes northward across the northeastern portions of the CWA/ND border.
Western Atlantic high pressure ridge axis will continue progressing north of the area today, as moderate 500mb high pressure builds in. Lows falling into the low 70s, but remaining in the mid-70s along the coast.
142 AM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through late week. No significant fog concerns and forecast lows are in the low to mid 70s. High pressure will continue to be the predominant surface feature through midweek.
342 AM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021 The deep upper closed low and trough will expand to the east through the short term.
Still the advection of a warm, moist air mass and potentially a few breaks in the clouds may help to warm highs into the lower 80s. The aforementioned upper low will shift further to the northeast into the Ohio Valley, with its associated trough digging into the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys. The active weather pattern will continue late this week as a perturbation shifting from Ontario into the Mid Atlantic will finally nudge the upper trough and its associated cold front SE through the Tennessee Valley and into Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.
1145 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Mid/high level clouds across Se Mi will prevail into the day Mon, associated with a weak upper low over the OK/AR border region. Very warm and increasingly humid conditions will persist as upper ridging remains in place across the region. Low level moisture will increase as upper low pressure over TX/OK drifts north and undercuts this ridge with an appreciable surge of Gulf of Mexico fed moisture working around the east side of this system into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Over the next several days, this low will slowly migrate north and northeast towards the area, developing into an open wave system with time.
Short wave trough pushing northward into wrn PA is making a good deal of radar returns, but the precip seems to be remaining almost entirely aloft. A deep southerly flow between a Bermuda High and an upper low over the Miss Valley will advect much higher PWAT air of 1. Convection-allowing models indicate initial development will occur along the higher terrain of the Alleghenies during the midday and early afternoon hours, before the chc ramps up acrs the Susq Valley later in the afternoon and evening. The higher humidity will keep it summer-like. Dewpoints will run in the 60s but could touch 70 in the lower Susq. HI will get into the lower 90s in the SE, but stay below 90 elsewhere. Mins tonight will be in the m60s in the highest of elevations, but u60s-l70s everywhere else.
/Tonight/ Much of the isolated to sct convection has diminished with the setting sun this evening, as dry slotting has undercut the closed low which has begun to shift NE into Ern OK/NW AR, with the afternoon convection primarily outflow dominant and driven through diurnal heating. However, seeing a small line of convection that continues to propagate E across McCurtain County OK and eventually into the Nrn sections of SW AR, along the apex of the attendant upper trough which will swing E through NE TX into SW AR overnight. This convection should remain sustained through at least a portion of the overnight hours across SW AR, being sustained by a 20kt Srly low level flow, weak to moderate SBCapes of 1000-1500 J/Kg, and large scale ascent ahead of the trough.
340 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 All the models remain in good agreement with taking an upper level low currently over the southern plains northward today, wobbling it across Ill Tue-Thu.
16 /Updated at 0315 PM CDT Sun Jun 06 2021/ Forecast pattern for the upcoming week remains the same, with an upper low rotating slowly to the northeast through the Lower Mississippi River Valley and into the Midwest, opening with time. This leaves a weak trough across the area and enhanced rain chances for the mid week timeframe. Northwesterly flow develops for the end of the week as ridging expands across the southern Plains.
Although mid-lvl lapse rates 8-9 C/km are forecast, wet- bulb zeroes/freezing levels are high enough that the hail threat will be minimal.