Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
115 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT. AT THE SFC A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM FROM SRN MI TO NE IL WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY/TNGT AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A STRENGTHENING CDFNT DROPS SE FROM THE UPR MIDWEST INTO OUR CWA. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE UPR TROF/CDFNT IS QUITE DRY.
1250 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 926 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2015/ A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA.
The upper level pattern is similar to yesterday with the ridge centered over South Florida and a trough axis to the west, however the trough axis has shifted further east and is now stretched across the Southeast.
114 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015 THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. AND A SUBTLE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALL CONTRIBUTING TO LIGHT/ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL MAINTAIN COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. LIGHT PRECIPITATION REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
236 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015 THE MIDSOUTH WAS CURRENTLY IN AN AIRMASS SANDWICHED BETWEEN COLD FRONTS. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SQUEEZE OUT THE REMAINING MOISTURE/65F+ DEWPOINTS OVER THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WALLMANN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VERY WARM AFTERNOONS WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
326 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015 12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. 18Z SFC DATA SUGGESTS THE COLD FRONT RAN FROM NEAR KGRB TO NEAR KSUX. DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WERE IN THE 60S AND WERE IN THE 40S AND 50S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE ADDITION OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING MAY ALSO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. BRISK AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL LIFT WITH CURRENT SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH ALABAMA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS ALABAMA WILL HELP TRIGGER SCT TO NMWRS TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. 58/ROSE HIGH RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
OVERALL THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL FOSTER CU AND STRATOCU CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AGAIN LOCALLY ON FRIDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. COOLER READINGS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. COOL START WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES TRAVERSING THE AREA.
THERE WILL ALSO BE AN ADDED TROUGH AXIS THAT PUSHES THROUGH FRI TO HELP INCREASE LARGE SCALE LIFT. THERE MAY BE FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THE HIGHER AMOUNTS BUT A WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
HOT HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND WEAK FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH. MID-LEVEL DRYING WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY SW BY FRIDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE 850-700 MB COLD FRONT.
148 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY SETTLE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. A NARROW WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN DEVELOPING A DEEP TROUGH. WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OF PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE ILN CWA ON FRIDAY.
MODELS INDICATE A BROAD UPPER TROF CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. WITH A WEAK SFC TROF EXTENDING NORTHWEST TO WEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FCST AREA. MODELS SHOW MORE PROVIDING DEEPER LAYER LIFT OVER THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS OF THE SFC TROF. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID 70S COAST. HIGH LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SUPPORTING THE SOUTHWARD SURGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS KANSAS. and drop south with the cold front into northeast Oklahoma towards midnight.
A RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER FLORIDA TO NORTH HALF OF GULF. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE MAIN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST SOUTH OF THE HUDSON BAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS FROM LAKE HURON TO NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND ANOTHER SECOND WAVE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO KANSAS.
410 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A COLD FRONT AND MOVE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A 500MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH 500MB WEAKNESS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BROWNSVILLE RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS THIS MORNING.
THEN A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT.
301 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015 BROAD TROUGH EXISTS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN HALF OF THE CENTRAL US WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COASTS OF US AND CANADA. 77 A WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACT WITH THIS FRONT BEING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE SHORT TERM AS THE FIRST AUTUMN COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TEXAS.
A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SHOWERS BACK INTO NY AND PA THIS WEEKEND. WEAK RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR PARTY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY, WITH PLEASANT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S.
1121 AM MDT THU SEP 10 2015 00Z H5 HAND ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OFF BOTH COASTS WHICH IS ALLOWING A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH TO CARVE OUT OVER THE MIDWEST TO CENTRAL GULF. THERE IS A FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL LAY UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
216 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
COLD FRONT. IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF DIGGING OVER THE MS VALLEY TONIGHT WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. INCOMING COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON TO FIRE OFF A GOOD SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH.
242 PM MDT THU SEP 10 2015 FORECAST AREA CAUGHT IN BETWEEN RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ON FRIDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM LINDA BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE CLOCKWISE FLOW OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND APPROACH THE SOCAL COAST.
311 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
117 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TO SOUTHERN OHIO WILL DRIFT SOUTH TODAY AND DISSIPATE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO WILL DRIFT GRADUALLY EAST INTO NEW YORK TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION WITH A DRIER NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MUCH OF THE HIGH AND MID CLOUDS NOW CONFINED TO EAST OHIO AND EASTWARD WITH CONTINUED MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A LESS HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
LATE MORNING CAPE SOUNDING SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS BUT QUITE MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ALOFT SO SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVE NEAR THE EAST COAST BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MIDNIGHT. TROUGHING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/EASTERN US AMPLIFIES. SHUNTING WHAT IS LEFT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN THE LOWER LEVELS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH NASHVILLE AND IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE PLATEAU.
Focus in the short term will be with potential of a brief period of organized convection tonight as a strong cold front moves into the area. Aforementioned cold front was located well to the north of the area yet. A much cooler and drier air mass from what we have had over the past week will move into the area behind the front. A fairly deep upper level trough will be carved out over the eastern U.
355 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015 A cold front will move south across the area late tonight and Friday morning accompanied by scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Much cooler and drier air will move into the area for the weekend bringing our first taste of fall.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY DRY SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MOST OF NEST WEEK. ON FRIDAY MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH WHILE AIR MASS REMAIN FAIRLY MOST AND UNSTABLE WITH CAPES AROUND 500 TO 100 J/KG AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND AN INCH.
CURRENTLY, THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MANIFESTING AS VERY LOW STRATUS. LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
525 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF PENNSYLVANIA BY TONIGHT. A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.
401 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF PENNSYLVANIA BY TONIGHT. A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.
Friday, the next cold front will move through the area. Have kept highs in the lower to mid 90s for the most part, as the front will be moving through during the late morning and afternoon hours, allowing at least some heating to take place for cooler air makes its way into the region. 20 (Friday night through Thursday) A cold front will be located across the Concho Valley/Heartland late Friday afternoon and evening.
336 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015 THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM ABOUT IRON MOUNTAIN TO WAUSAU EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER ONTARIO AND MINNESOTA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER IN ADDITION TO DRY WEATHER THE HIGH WILL BRING COOL TEMPERATURES AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.
431 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY SETTLE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. A NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP DOWN TO THE MID 50S EAST OF COLUMBUS TO THE LOWER 60S IN PARTS OF THE TRI-STATE REGION. H5 TROF WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND DEEPENING.
Otherwise, main concern turns to possible development over northern sections of the CWA for the afternoon hours with the approach of the cold front/wind shift.
234 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015 FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BE VERY DIFFUSE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA SUGGESTS THAT PERHAPS THE BOUNDARY HAS MIXED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR ATTM. THIS WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. KEPT POPS AT HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY FOR FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE CONVECTION LIKELY DISSIPATING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE COOLER/DRIER AIR FOLLOWING FROM THE NORTH.
MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHEAST. THE ONLY THREAT WOULD BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST WHERE SOME WEAK TROUGHING CONTINUES. A SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA AND THE SETUP MENTIONED FOR LATE TONIGHT WILL JUST STRENGTHEN. THERE IS A RISK OF WATERSPOUTS AS THE COLD AIR FLOWS DOWN THE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
228 PM MDT THU SEP 10 2015 SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL HAVE PUSHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS BY LATER THIS EVENING. STRATUS DECK WILL GRADUALLY ERODE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COOLER AND STABLE AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
1217 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH. WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROF DIGGING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND THEN SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE INITIAL SETUP OF THIS TROF. THEY HAVE BEEN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING A WESTWARD DRIFT OF THE MEAN TROF POSITION OVER SUCCESSIVE RUNS.
403 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 UPSTREAM COLD FRONT HAS REACHED ERN UPR MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU OUR CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE LAKESHORES.
245 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015 19z/2pm surface analysis shows a cold front extending from Lake Superior southwestward into eastern Iowa. Will highlight the I-74 corridor with the highest PoPs early this evening as the outflow boundary becomes active. After that, think additional scattered thunderstorms will develop along the actual cold front and track E/SE into the area from late evening into the overnight hours. Cold front is progged to pass through central Illinois tonight and will be pushing into Indiana by Friday morning. Will need to keep an eye on a deep upper low digging southward late in the day.
FRINGES BECOMING MORE CELLULAR AND AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH LOSS OF HEATING MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING CLEARING ACROSS THE FA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.
THE COLD FRONT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT WE MAYBE SEEING HINTS OF IT ON VIS SATELLITE VIA THE NW-SE ORIENTED CU FIELD OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL INITIATE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE A SLOWER SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION. THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A MORE VIGOROUS UPPER TROF WHICH WILL VENTURE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A RAPID UPGROWTH OF CONVECTION. THE STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING FRIDAY MORNING.
BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. IF WINDS CAN STAY CLOSER TO 6 TO 10 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT THEN LOWS MAY END UP ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES WARMER. COOLEST CONDITIONS FOR THE SHORTER TERM CENTERED ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CORE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA.
FOR NOW WILL GO MORE WITH THE LOW CLOUD REDEVELOPMENT SCENARIO AS PORTRAYED IN PREVIOUS TAFS.
222 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015 There is an upper trough that is centered over southern Canada that has began to deepen over the Upper Midwest today. Precipitation will once again be possible today across the higher terrain, Big Bend region, and the Lower Trans Pecos. On Friday, the previously mentioned upper trough will deepen even more and will send another cold front into the area Friday evening.
BUT DUE TO A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING TROUGH. DUE TO MORE CONVERGENCE AND INCREASED LIFT WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH. TRENDED ON THE COOLER SIDE FROM THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN CHANCES.
202 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF PENNSYLVANIA BY TONIGHT. A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.
420 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE 12Z SOUNDING INDICATING THE 500 HPA TEMPERATURE UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN ANY CONTINUITY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS WILL SLOWLY START TO ERODE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND A LARGE AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD.
330 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY.
254 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 THE COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED JUST SOUTHEAST OF KENTUCKY. A SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WILL GO SLIGHTLY COOLER TONIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THE COLD FRONT PUSHING ON THROUGH.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WV IMAGERY SHOWING BROAD TROFFING ACROSS THE ERN 3/4THS OF THE CONUS. WITH TROF CENTER LOCATED OVR SRN HUDSON BAY. EXPANDING/AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVR THE WRN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM SERN WY TO NCNTRL WY AND INTO CNTRL MT. WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA BEHIND THE FRONT UNDER GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND WEAKENING UPR LVL FLOW. AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE EXPANDS AND APPROACHES THE CWA FROM OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. UPR LVL FLOW CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE NRLY ORIENTED AND WEAKEN AS THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AND THE CNTR/AXIS TRANSLATES EWD FROM THE GREAT BASIN TOWARD WY. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE WEST WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
TOMORROW AN UNSEASONABLE UPPER TROF WILL COME IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
152 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY THEN MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
150 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 A STORM SYSTEM, WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST, THROUGH TONIGHT, BRINGING SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA, AND MOST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK, ALONG WITH COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FRIDAY, WITH A TEMPORARY RETURN TO SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED. OVER THE WEEKEND, SHOWERY WEATHER IS EXPECTED, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER, THE LULL WE'RE EXPERIENCING AT THIS TIME APPEARS TEMPORARY, AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, AND SUPPORTING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, BOTH MAKE THEIR APPROACH LATER TODAY. GIVEN ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S-MID 70S.
ALOFT: A BROAD TROF ENCOMPASSED THE NRN USA FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS OVER NV WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WRN USA. OVERALL THE EXTENDED PERIODS ARE FEATURING PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER WITH COOLER CONDITIONS AT THE ONSET. AT THE ONSET OF THE EXTENDED ON FRIDAY THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE AMPLIFIED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS AND A DEEPENING TROUGH FROM ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY AREA THRU THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RESIDE ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND WE MAY SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER FAR EASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. COOLER DAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH A LOW AND MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WILL LIE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING IN THE AFTERNOON.
659 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND LATER THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY ARE DIMINISHING AS WE MOVE TOWARD SUNSET. CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW AND DEEPENING COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUED MENTION OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS HANGING IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL WILL BOTTOM OUT OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REGION BENEATH A LARGE H500 RIDGE ALOFT. CURRENT WV IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER TEXAS WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA INTO CANADA. DEEP UPPER LOW WAS ALSO LOCATED OFF THE PAC NW COAST LEAVING INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES AND HAVING SOME TROUBLES WITH THE EMBEDDED VORT MAXES THAT WILL BE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE.
625 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
324 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE ERIE. COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE COOLEST AIR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ENHANCING THE COVERAGE AREA OF THE SHOWERS. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUDINESS AS COOLER AIR ON NORTHWEST WINDS STREAMS ACROSS THE LAKES. THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
310 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015 SUBTLE/WEAK UPPER IMPULSES TOPPING THE SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE.
COOLER AIR WILL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.
ALL AREAS WILL SEE ENOUGH CLEARING AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TO ENABLE LOWS INTO THE UPPER 50S- LOWER 60S OUTSIDE CHICAGO AND MID TO UPPER 60S IN AND NEAR THE CITY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY. POSSIBLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF MOIST EAST-SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE LLVLS AS THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION HAS BEEN TIED TO THE TERRAIN ALONG THE CHEYENNE AND PINE RIDGES. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS PLENTY OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN BENEATH THE RIDGE. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ON WED/THU. LESS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS AS H7 TEMPS AS WARM AS +16 DEG C AND SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS COULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK AS RIDGING BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. ALL MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH.
LOW-LEVEL COOL AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT, AND HAS RESULTED IN A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CU FIELD. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE THE COOLER NIGHT WITH A DRIER ATMOSPHERE AND LESS WIND.