Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Surface and upper ridging over the eastern CONUS are settling into a somewhat blocked pattern, with partly to mostly sunny skies and temps punching into the 80s across the Ohio Valley. Closed upper low over the northern Plains is currently progged to lift NE into Canada. An impulse pinwheeling NE across the Panhandle region will lift too far north and west to impact the Ohio Valley, as the ridging will not easily budge. Will run on the high end of guidance for max temps as we have overachieved since the weekend upper low departed, but close to consensue for lows.
A ridge of high pressure along with drier, pleasant conditions and rising temperatures will move back over the state for the weekend.
The cold front is currently moving through central KS and will be the focus for storm development around 2 to 3 pm. Hodographs show slight curvature in the lowest levels with the directional shear. Southerly flow will keep dewpoints in the lower to mid 60 range, especially in portions of east central Kansas.
Fog was slow to burn off this morning, but temperatures have still been able to respond nicely, with most locations checking in the lower 70s (as of 19Z), even with the substantial diurnal cu up. If low clouds to not materialize, there is a reasonable shot at 80 degrees tomorrow at Detroit, as strengthening low level southwest flow develops with warm front lifting into northern Lower Michigan, as 925 mb temps progged to rise to near 20 C. Modest instability/sliver thin cape indicated, but appears there will be sufficient low level cap in place during the day, before weakening cap and low level convergence of cold front arrives during the evening hours (reaching Tri-Cities region) and then washes out or stalls, as 6HR height falls struggle to reach southeast Michigan, as max center tracks into northwest Ontario.
Westerly breezes expected to kick in by 14z-15z and scour the low level moisture off to the east. /issued 341 AM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016/ Upper level low pressure continues to spin out to our north through the northern and central high plains early this morning, with an extension of mid and upper level vorticity advection currently crossing the Texas panhandle and northern South Plains. Passage of a Pacific Cold front should not necessarily bring noticable cooling, with the downslope offset, very dry replacement airmass, and full sunshine. Until the weekend, models do agree in pulling back low level moisture into at least the Rolling Plains on Wednesday in response to another long wave trough moving across the Rockies.
927 AM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016 The approach of an upper level low pressure system will keep the airmass unsettled. The cold front associated with this system will cross the region today and most showers and thunderstorm activity will be associated with this front during the afternoon. The airmass will destabilize after 18z as an upper level disturbance and a surface cold front move across the area.
1051 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 High pressure will remain over the forecast area through tonight.
946 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 Atlantic high pressure will prevail today.
GAH While the upper low has moved into North Dakota overnight, the cyclonic circulation associated with the low will continue over the eastern half of the forecast area this morning. To the west, an upper trough currently over the Pacific NW will move into Western Montana this afternoon and bring a frontal boundary into Central Montana. The upper trough moves northeast through the forecast area Saturday afternoon and evening and into Saskatchewan late Saturday Night.
The large scale pattern continues to feature a trough over the Rockies and High Plains, a ridge off the east coast, and a very amplified southerly flow in between.
Highs in the low to mid 80s with limited potential for any showers or storms as warmer air aloft caps convection off. Eastern CONUS ridging is expected to continue today. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon as convective temperatures are reached, though the proximity of the ridge and lack of significant instability should limit this to isolated coverage. The eastern CONUS ridge is expected persist through Saturday, though moisture and instability on the nw periphery of the ridge should result in afternoon/evening shower and thunderstorm chances.
Main feature of interest will be an upper low over the central/southern plains which will slowly eject NE through the weekend. First will be any shra associated with upper low over SW MB. Better chances for rain will be across the SE FA as an impulse ejecting from the central plains upper low lifts NE. Temperatures will hinge on cloud cover but should be able to get into the low-mid 70s most areas. Central plains upper low lifts NE Saturday. Rain chances will likely be confined to the eastern Fa as remnant upper low lifts into the Mn arrowhead by morning. Upper low lifts NE with mid level flow becoming more zonal.
Upper level ridging was over the southeast ConUS, and a large trough over the western ConUS. Near the periphery of the ridge, we are seeing rounds of convection at times. Models suggest convection will initiate with destabilization over the higher terrain of the Appalachians today, and then propagate northward in weak steering currents during the late afternoon and evening. Next, a plume of deeper moisture rotating around the large scale trough to our west will makes its way east across KY tonight and Saturday.
Therefore confidence still remains that isolated to scattered storms will have the best chance to develop along and near the high terrain closer to the TN/VA border. Upper level ridging was over the southeast ConUS, and a large trough over the western ConUS. Near the periphery of the ridge, we are seeing rounds of convection at times. Models suggest convection will initiate with destabilization over the higher terrain of the Appalachians today, and then propagate northward in weak steering currents during the late afternoon and evening. Next, a plume of deeper moisture rotating around the large scale trough to our west will makes its way east across KY tonight and Saturday.
the upper low will move to the northeast of oklahoma later today with diminishing chances for thunder tonight and saturday. /issued 240 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/ After a week, finally today the upper trough that has been to the west of OKlahoma will depart. Nevertheless, instability underneath the core of the low, passing from southeast CO into western Kansas, is expected to be sufficient for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. In the wake of the upper trough, Saturday appears to be the day between the last week and the next with the lowest chance for rain or thunder.
The accompanying thick cloud cover will impact insolation and cooler temperatures are expected today over the western half of our area. High pressure is still expected to hinder convection over east Mississippi where we will continue to leave out mention of rain today. Still expect to see some convection over our northwest sections, but cooler temperatures today should promote more stability and less risk of strong storms. Elsewhere over the region, wedge of relatively dry air continues in the lower levels from south GA/FL westward across south AL and into south MS.
958 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 A warm front will move across the state today. A cold front crosses the area on Saturday with showers and thunderstorms expected across southern areas during the afternoon. Clouds will increase today as high pressure moves to the east of the region and a warm front moves across the state. Low pressure is expected to develop to the north of the state tonight then move away to the northeast Saturday Morning. A cold front is forecast to slide across CWA on Saturday. The lacking factors are the availability of deep moisture through 700mbs and the low/mid level lapse rates are meager w/around 6.
921 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 Water vapor imagery and upper air analysis this morning shows a low entering the Pacific Northwest with another trough moving through the Central Plains, with ongoing active weather in that region. Farther east, the pattern is a bit more complex, with high pressure extending northward over much of the Gulf of Mexico, with its eastern periphery just to the west of Florida, and a weak low centered over the Bahamas. At the surface, high pressure remains anchored over the western Atlantic, extending westward over the U. With high pressure to the north, easterly winds will remain in place for the next couple of days, but will become onshore in the afternoon with the sea breeze.
Mid to upper level closed low per water vapor imagery seen circulating over the Turtle Mountains slowly opens up today and meanders into southern Manitoba this afternoon.
Weak cold front w/northerly wind shift then arrives near/after midnight. /issued 406 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/ Partially stacked upper low over southern Colorado this morning will make slow progress northeastward through the day before relocating to central Nebraska by midnight. A weak cold front already pushing south through the area before dawn is forecast to wash out and be replaced by dry and very breezy westerly flow by midday. Despite cyclonic flow aloft all day and cooling mid- level temps, the nearest upper moisture/saturated ascent will reside well north of the region closer to the upper low and its associated cold pocket. As the upper low pivots northeast tonight, a more definitive cold front will drop south ahead of unseasonably cool lows in the lower 50s for much of the Caprock.
H5 flow is progged to back as the mid/upper trough approaches and when the PV anomaly rotates toward the area late in the period. Most locations are expected to remain dry on Saturday as the mid/upper trough lifts slowly north and east toward the Upper Mississippi Valley area.
Storms to the west now are expected to weaken and dissipate as they move east due high pressure in place over the central Gulf Coast. A deep late season upper trough begins to develop and dig southward by the start of the work week.
A short wave trough will lift northeast from the southern Rockies and into the Central Plains by tonight and will allow the dryline to push east across most of the area this morning and early afternoon.
/Gregoria A weak trough of low pressure extending southwestward from Southern California will move into Southern California and strengthen slightly during the weekend.
Winds are ramping up behind the early morning cold front passage.
/ISSUED 409 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/ Upper low moving across the Rockies this morning will gradually slide east into the central plains through tonight, with an associated increase in synoptic scale forcing during the day today. Instability may be somewhat limited but shear will be enhanced by negative tilt trough passing to our north, thus some severe threatwill be maintained with these storms. Upper low will continue to lift northeast Saturday with mid level heights gradually rising, but moist and unstable airmass will remain in place.
Warmer than expected overnight lows and clouds complicated the hourly temperature and dewpoint trends, so have made some adjustments. Storms to the west now are expected to weaken and dissipate as they move east due high pressure in place over the central Gulf Coast. A deep late season upper trough begins to develop and dig southward by the start of the work week.
Upper level ridge is situated over the southeast U. Convection will become more diurnally driven this weekend as the upper low lifts into the Upper Mississippi Valleys and heights rise a bit.
/issued 406 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/ Partially stacked upper low over southern Colorado this morning will make slow progress northeastward through the day before relocating to central Nebraska by midnight. A weak cold front already pushing south through the area before dawn is forecast to wash out and be replaced by dry and very breezy westerly flow by midday. Despite cyclonic flow aloft all day and cooling mid- level temps, the nearest upper moisture/saturated ascent will reside well north of the region closer to the upper low and its associated cold pocket. As the upper low pivots northeast tonight, a more definitive cold front will drop south ahead of unseasonably cool lows in the lower 50s for much of the Caprock.
An elongated upper level low stretches southeast from just east of Florida to the Western Caribbean near Jamaica. Dry northwesterlies are apparent on water vapor imagery streaking towards the base of the upper level trough. Despite the hostility aloft, the lower troposphere features steep lapse rates and adequate moisture, likely due to a developing low pressure system several hundred miles northeast of the Abacos.
Lift associated with this MCV and an associated wave may be enough to spark an isolated to scattered shower or thunderstorm this morning, but the better chance should be in the afternoon in central South Dakota closer to the stronger forcing and just west of the low level boundary. Saturday has the larger scale appearance of a soggy day over much of the CWA, as a fairly consistent signal of the upper level low pressure lifting from Nebraska to Minnesota. Always the wild card that convection remains much more significant toward I-80 and interferes with more widespread migration/development within deformation zone north and west of the upper low track.
A weakly organized upper low over the caribbean will meander northeastward along the Florida Atlantic seaboard today through tonight, into an upper ridge situated over the east coast. Subsidence on the west and northwest side of this system working with the upper ridge will help to suppress any precip as it brings drier air towards and ultimately over the eastern quarter of the area.
Large scale pattern features a mid tropospheric trough from Manitoba down into the four corners region. Water vapor imagery early this morning showed one closed low over eastern Colorado and another in northern North Dakota. A weak front seemed to extend from another low in northern South Dakota to western Kansas and then down to the low in Oklahoma.
Low level moisture increase will support plenty of fair weather cumulus and partly sunny skies this afternoon but still expecting temps to reach into the upper 80s/near 90 over inland areas while the onshore flow will keep it in the lower/middle 80s along the coast. Temps will fall once again down into the 60s inland and in the lower 70s along the coast. Winds becoming Northeast later tonight and possibly increasing to 15-20 knots with seas building into the 4-6 ft range at least on saturday but all will depend on developing low pressure offshore over the weekend.
However, HRRR is now initiating convection along inverted trough/sfc boundary which shifts slightly north. Main feature of interest will be an upper low over the central/southern plains which will slowly eject NE through the weekend. First will be any SHRAassociated with upper low over SW MB. Better chances for rain will be across the SE FA as an impulse ejecting from the central plains upper low lifts NE. Temperatures will hinge on cloud cover but should be able to get into the low-mid 70s most areas. Central plains upper low lifts NE Saturday. Rain chances will likely be confined to the eastern Fa as remnant upper low lifts into the Mn arrowhead by morning. Upper low lifts NE with mid level flow becoming more zonal.
Low freezing levels around 6000 ft AGL will support possible small hail.
/Issued 338 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/ An upper low will pass by to our north today.
This is due to the main upper level trough shifting east across the region and increasing upper level diffluence and bringing the RRQ of the jet across S TX. The front is progged to begin moving east across the coastal waters by late afternoon into this evening as the upper trough approaches the area. The upper trough and associated cold front are expected to exit the region by Thu morning with drier conditions filtering into S TX. A subsident W to NW flow is expected to dvlp behind the front and combine with clring skies to bring warmer temps to S TX on Thu.
433 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017 A large area of rain and isolated thunderstorms continues to spread northeast across the CWA as an upper trough over Colorado moves into the Plains. The bulk of the precipitation should begin to shift eastward and should begin to diminish across Southeast Oklahoma and portions of East Texas by noon Thursday as the upper trough lifts north.
Given the cloudy start and only weak WAA later in the day, have opted to follow the coolest numeric guidance for highs, with afternoon temps only reaching the lower to middle 40s. Closed upper low currently evident on water vapor imagery over New Mexico will begin to lift northeastward tonight. Copious amounts of Pacific and Gulf of Mexico moisture will get drawn northward ahead of the upper low as it tracks into the Plains on Thursday, with NAM showing near record precipitable water values for this time of year of 1 to 1.
An elongated upper level low pressure, extending from SW KS southwest to NW Mexico, has two embedded PV maxes, one on each end of the broader circulation. The main upper low will lift out of the southwest and into the Plains by Thursday. As the parent upper trough axis swings across the region Thursday afternoon/evening, there is some indication from both the GFS and ECMWF that a few afternoon storms could form in the steep lapse rate environment beneath the -20C 500mb temps. This activity should taper off during the evening as the low becomes an open wave and lifts NE away from the region.
517 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017 IFR conditions will be prevalent through the period, with conditions deteriorating this evening, as a warm front moves into the state. Upper low over the desert southwest will move northeastward and off the front range of the Rockies later today and tonight, and this will send the stalled front back to the north a bit.
The mid level low is progged to shift southeast by late Wednesday morning and building high pressure will help diminish showers as the day progresses. Dry with relatively mild temperatures tonight as a mid level ridge begins to build across the region.
It will remain mild with highs today in the lower 40s and lows tonight in the lower 30s. A bit warmer still on Thursday with highs 45 to 50.
/issued 359 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): 500mb low/trough across the southwest United States/northern Mexico early this morning will move eastward today. Rain chances will increase tonight into early Thurs morning as the upper level trough moves eastward across northwest TX and the stationary frontal boundary draped across the area provides a focus for elevated convection along and north of the front.
906 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 Low pressure passes well south of the region today.
This broad low pressure system is expected to remain over the area until Thursday morning as weak ridging moves in from the west.
Storms seem to be moving along a stalled frontal boundary that may be slowly moving north as a warm front. Another short wave trough axis may push through early Thursday morning prompting a line of storms to form on the slow moving front.
Some of this low cloudiness will decrease by afternoon, but mid and high level cloudiness will begin to move in at that time.
619 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 Upper level low keeps clouds in place today.
Patchy to areas of fog will persist through this morning particularly on the higher terrain due to stratus build down. Otherwise expect clouds to persist today as an upper low pressure system lifts northeast from the Texas Big Bend region.
Closed upper low pressure will dig across the region this morning accompanied by clouds, drizzle, and scattered showers. The low is progged to shift southeastward by late morning and building high pressure will help diminish showers as the day progresses. Dry with relatively mild temperatures tonight as a mid level ridge begins to build across the region.
630 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 Low pressure passes well south of the region today.
High pressure remains anchored to the northeast of the Bahamas, with upper-level ridging aloft. Today, the high pressure will gradually weaken during the day today and shift slightly west, with a light south/southeast flow across the region. Temperatures will continue to run around 5 degrees above normal for January, with highs reaching into the lower 80s for most areas. Dry and pleasant weather will continue through the short term period as high pressure and upper-level ridging aloft remain anchored over the region.
1002 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 Weak high pressure will be over the region this afternoon. Morning sounding indicates fairly dry airmass above the low level inversion, so expect the remaining stratus and fog to dissipate this morning, with sunshine for the afternoon.
A large area of rain and isolated thunderstorms continues to spread northeast across the CWA as an upper trough over Colorado moves into the Plains. The bulk of the precipitation should begin to shift eastward and should begin to diminish across Southeast Oklahoma and portions of East Texas by noon Thursday as the upper trough lifts north.
916 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 A ridge of high pressure will be building northeast up the Ohio valley this afternoon through Thursday.
Meanwhile, a warm front noted from near IAH to JAS, to just S of AEX as of 1130Z will continue to slowly lift N today, reaching the Lower Toledo Bend Area of Deep E TX into Ncntrl LA this afternoon. Should see additional SHRA with embedded TSRA redevelop overnight mainly from Deep E TX NE across N LA/Scntrl AR ahead of the main upper trough as it begins to kick E across the Srn Plains. A large area of rain and isolated thunderstorms continues to spread northeast across the CWA as an upper trough over Colorado moves into the Plains. The bulk of the precipitation should begin to shift eastward and should begin to diminish across Southeast Oklahoma and portions of East Texas by noon Thursday as the upper trough lifts north.
The system's warm front and associated precip is now affecting Union and Wallowa counties only. This warm front should exit the area within the next couple of hours. Will still see freezing rain at areas in the basin below around 1800 feet over in the east and below around 2500 feet in the west. Precip will continue over the higher terrain into tonight. Thus the threat of freezing precip in the mountain zones will end as snow becomes the main precip type. Still expect the warm air to mix into the Basin and eventually into the Yakima and Kittitas valleys, as well as the Gorge this afternoon, but will have to keep some mention of light freezing rain in these areas.
915 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 Upper level low keeps clouds in place today.
539 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 Low pressure will redevelop off the mid Atlantic coast early today.
Eastern edge of the valley typically the coldest with the S to SW sfc winds will be the slowest to warm but still expected to get to the low 30s. Upper level ridge over SASK will shift east and build over central Canada while an upper low over NM will move northeast and undercut the ridge and eventually rotate up the west side of the ridge and over the forecast area by the end of the period.
Morning observations suggest the low level moisture is enough to support some fog and sub 500 ft ceilings. Pronounced Upper level ridge axis (500 mb heights between 564-566 DAM) will be overhead tomorrow, and NAM soundings still maintaining low clouds, but with the inversion based around 1 kft, will favor the low clouds mixing out and dissipating, although forecasted 950 mb RH still muddled when comparing the GEM/GFS/NAM. Assuming the low clouds clear out, there should be an increase in high clouds as the elongated upper level low currently over the Four Corners Region advances northeast into the Central Plains.
In the low to mid levels of the atmosphere, an area of high pressure will be centered over the southern half of the Florida peninsula this afternoon. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a ridge of high pressure will be located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico today.