Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Much of this mornings convection was over southern AR, associated with the upper low pressure trough as it moves through the region. Tonight, the chance of convection gradually moves southeast, as the upper low pressure trough moves farther to the east, and the upper high pressure begins to build into the region from the west. Temperatures will start below normal then we will see a warming trend as the upper high pressure ridge builds into the region.
Upper level high pressure near the four-corners remains dominant feature. /issued 304 AM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017/ The upper level ridge has been making its eastward expansion overnight, and IR satellite shows this nicely with clockwise flow centered over the Four Corners.
High temperatures this afternoon will range from the lower 80s south of Route 24, to the upper 80s across northwest Indiana. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase later tonight into Friday as a cold front tracks through the area.
721 AM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 High pressure moves offshore today and produces a southerly flow of air, which will introduce more humid air into northern New England this afternoon through tonight.
Generally expect isolated to scattered showers anywhere in the forecast area, with the highest chances along and north of the I-20 corridor. The main trough axis pushes through Central AL on Friday and the weak frontal boundary stalls over the South-Central portions of the state.
Upper midwest in mild and humid conditions with vigorous convection in ND/MN moving southeast ahead of next developing cold front.
100 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Low pressure will track across southern Ohio today with high pressure losing its grip on northern OH/northwest PA. A more significant cold front will move southeast across the area Friday evening. High pressure will build across the Ohio Valley for the weekend. Attention turns though to midwest cold front that is progged to cross the area Friday evening/Friday night. Will go on the milder side of guidance, some of which may be impacted by abundance of convection/convective feedback reserving highs upwards of 10 degrees cooler. Cold front will cross the region Friday night with thunderstorms ending from west to east.
It will be hot again, with temperatures in the low 90s along the coast, and mid to upper 90s across the interior with heat indices of 102-108F across the region.
520 AM MDT Thu Jul 6 2017 High pressure remains centered over the Four Corners through Thursday night. it appears that the high pressure center shifts ever so slightly west today, so forecast highs today are a degree or so below highs yesterday or about the same. On Friday and through the weekend, the center of high pressure shifts westward to be centered over Utah and Arizona, but won't make much if any difference in available moisture.
TFJ Hot and dry conditions expected to continue as upper ridge builds back into western Montana through the end of the week. Yesterdays weak front has settled over central Montana and as Canadian high pressure slides into the northern plains, winds are going around to the east and northeast this morning. This high pressure is also bringing a little cooler air to knock temperatures down a few degrees along with higher humidity. Synoptic Setup: Friday night begins with hot high pressure over the western half of the CONUS and a ridge rising up from it through central Montana and into Alberta and the Northwest Territories. A large closed low sets over the Gulf of Alaska with its sphere of influence spreading into western Washington State and the main bulk of British Columbia.
The upper level trough responsible for the cool, showery weather of the past few days will exit eastward into the Rockies tonight, allowing high pressure to build across the region.
By this afternoon and evening, southeast winds increase ahead of the approaching low pressure.
Modest 850 mb moisture was noted from the Gulf coast up into parts of KS and even up into MN, ahead of the 850 mb cold front. At the surface, a decent cold front continue to push through eastern NE and southwest IA.
The ridge and associated dry air will keep precip chances at bay much of tonight, though approach of a stronger trough into the western High Plains will allow low-mid level boundaries to begin lifting northward again later tonight.
/issued 425 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017/ Warm and dry conditions to prevail over the Midsouth today and Saturday, under the northern periphery of a 5930m 500mb ridge extending from the lower MS River valley to the southern Atlantic seaboard.
An upper ridge will remain in place across the area through tonight.
Behind the front, temperatures are likely to be as much at 10-15 degrees cooler making it highly likely the areas along the I-70 corridor to have early day time highs. Behind the front, temperatures will be much cooler and the winds will pick up significantly.
327 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 High pressure prevails through Saturday.
403 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 High pressure over New England will keep things dry today but clouds will increase. A bit of light rain or drizzle may visit some areas tonight into early Saturday as a warm front passes.
113 PM MDT Fri Oct 13 2017 18z water vapor imagery indicated cwa under fast WSW flow between trough over the PAC NW and southern plains ridge. At the sfc, cold front was well to the south of the area and was located roughly along a KCNC to KPTT line with high pressure building into the area. For tonight, warm air advection will increase as lee trough and low level jet intensify through the evening. On Saturday, cold front will quickly advance across the area during the afternoon hours.
305 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017 A strong upper ridge centered over the SE US is providing a warm and sunny day across the Midsouth. Expect the ridge to remain in place through Saturday with a more enhanced southerly wind and even warmer conditions.
1114 AM MDT Fri Oct 13 2017 Broad upper trough covers much of the western CONUS, with ridging over the east. At the surface, high pressure rests over the northern plains. The upper trough will dig into the Rockies tonight, and a cold front will begin crossing the region. Chances for rain/snow showers will increase early Saturday morning and continue into the afternoon, but dry weather is expected by the evening as the trough quickly moves through the northern plains.
Rain will likely overspread the remainder of the region Saturday night along a cold front.
Dry conditions are expected for Saturday with daytime temperatures one or two degrees cooler than today's highs as clouds remain over the area for much of the morning period.
300 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 A high pressure ridge over the Ohio Valley will weaken Saturday.
227 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 High pressure prevails through Saturday.
1244 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017 A cold front is slowly working through the forecast area this morning, currently stretching from Concordia to north of Hays.
/BB/ Morning update discussion cover through this evening: 12UTC JAN sounding reveals potential for very deep mixing through today as the subtropical ridge further strengthens over the region. /BB/ Prior discussion below: Not much change is expected in our prevailing weather today and tonight as upper ridging has a firm grip over our region(as well as the rest of the southeast United States). Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday and this will be a trend that should continue through the weekend. Moisture will slowly return to the region as dewpoints rise into the lower 60s by this evening, and even some upper 60s in the Pine Belt. Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid 60s across the region tonight.
147 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 High pressure will remain in place over the Ohio Valley through the rest of the week, before moving east of the region going into the weekend.
Expect scattered fair weather clouds to develop by this afternoon with highs once again topping out in the lower 90's. Strong high pressure will hold across the region yielding clear to mostly clear skies. /issued 415 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017/ Deep layer ridging to continue prevailing across the region today, yielding another afternoon of well above normal (and in some cases near record) high temperatures. Global models depict the ridge beginning to erode tomorrow as an upper trof translates through the Rockies and into the Plains, though another afternoon of very warm temperatures is expected SAT afternoon.
Much cooler temperatures have moved in with the first of two cold fronts. This will induce leeside troughing above the remnant shallow cold pool. Much of the high-resolution model solution suite suggest dense fog forming across portions of west central KS where surface winds veer around to the east-southeast in response to the development of the new surface wave as discussed in the previous paragraph.
340 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017 Primary forecast focus is on increasing rain and thunderstorm chances associated with the passage of a cold front tomorrow afternoon and overnight. Currently, the suspect cold front has actually drifted southward into far northwestern Oklahoma, stalling out near Woodward. However, above the boundary layer, the low levels remain dry due to veer of the LLJ. Picca mentioned in his SPC Day One Outlook, the veered profiles through the low-levels will more than likely temper any concern for tornadoes in Oklahoma.
210 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017 An upper level ridge of high pressure centered from east Texas to the Gulf coast states will slowly flatten and move east through Saturday as a large upper level storm system moves across the center of the nation. As the upper system tracks across the rockies and plains a strong cold front will plunge through the forecast area Saturday night. Strong forcing with the upper trough and right rear quadrant of the jet should aid in the development of widely scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the region Saturday night. The most numerous activity is expected to be across the northeast Permian Basin closet to the forcing with the trough and jet.
Much warmer temperatures along with plenty of sunshine is in store for today. This feature will track steadily eastward toward the Great Lakes and push the associated cold front southward across the Ozarks Saturday night.
The breezy southerly winds will remain as upper level southwesterly flow continues and a broad upper level trough movies into the plains through the day Saturday.
200 PM PDT Fri Oct 13 2017 Onshore flow and an upper level trough will bring areas of coastal low clouds tonight.
Surface pressure rises behind the upper level trough moving across the Great Basin tonight and Saturday will result in an increase in north to east winds over interior Norcal.
These thunderstorms will evolve into a line that will then march through Saturday evening into the overnight hours along and ahead of a surface cold front that will have plenty of support from an upper trough rotating through the Plains.
631 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 A high pressure ridge over the Ohio Valley will weaken Saturday.
Palmer Weak sfc ridging remains anchored from the OH Valley SW into extreme Ern TX this morning, and will remain so through tonight before easing E of the area Saturday. Meanwhile, the center of the H850-700 ridge in place across the region will gradually begin to shift E by afternoon, with weak moisture advection expected to shift NE from E TX into SE OK/adjacent sections of SW AR. This low level moisture gradient is evident in the 15Z sfc isodrosotherm analysis, with the tight dewpoint gradient noted from the Red River of N TX into extreme NE TX and along the TX/LA line.
434 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017 Water vapor imagery depicts a broad western trough with multiple impulses flowing through southwest flow over the Northern Plains. At the surface a lee cyclone is centered over southeast Montana with a warm front draped over central and western North Dakota. This evening a jet max rounds the western trough, deepening a low pressure system over the state. As the cold front catches up to the forcing further east, accumulating snow becomes possible. As the aforementioned cold front moves northwest to southeast overnight into Saturday, the surface front will be a focus of rain early Saturday morning through the day as well as high temperatures in the 40s and breezy northwest winds behind the front.
215 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 An elongated trough is stretching from the northern Bahamas, across the Florida Straits, and westward to the Yucatan Peninsula. The stretched and weak trough mentioned above will move little through the short term. Expecting a bit more diffluent flow in the lower levels and for this reason have lower rain chances overnight to a chance of showers, albeit on the high side of chance. Model cross sections suggest drying in the mid levels and aloft through the weekend, but keeps some available moisture in the lower levels and will keep a low end chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the extended.
Expect all terminals to experience restrictions, with the low cloud bank expected to erode to the northeast through the daytime hours tomorrow. So, despite highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s today, it won't feel so oppressive due to the lower dewpoints and humidity. Deep layer ridging will remain draped across the southeast US with a weakening front hanging around today.
Warm front extends to the northeast of the low, generally from Hays toward St. This low essentially moves along the orientation of the warm front through the morning hours, with the western side making more southern progress through the evening hours. Boundary then becomes washed out this evening and retreats back northward overnight in the low level jet regime. On Saturday morning a positively tilted mid level trough lifts northeastward over the northern plains. As the winds in the lowest levels veer to the southwest ahead of the front warmer air will try to erode the stratus. This will likely be associated with any bowing segments that become more perpendicular to the low level shear vector, which will generally be out of the southwest.
323 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 A warm front will move north of the region tonight with some showers expected. A cold front will move into the area on Saturday and stall Saturday night. Strong high pressure located to the east of New England will dominate into early evening. Later tonight a cold front will approach from the northwest and spread clouds and showers into northern and central areas.
Temps are climbing well even with more clouds than expected so will keep the highs we have going. Surface ridging will provide generally quiet weather today and tonight, with not really any impacts expected. Day time temperature will be cooler than yesterday, but still went a bit warmer than guidance considering recent model biases and solar expected.
Expect this to become more widespread after 8 pm as a strong cold front will rapidly pushed by (6 pm to 10 pm). Snowfall amounts in the mountains could reach up to 4 inches while in the lower valley locations through 6 am on Saturday could see a dusting to 3 inches. Prior to the cold front strong gradient winds in the upper Snake Valley have prompted a dust advisory and expect to see these conditions persist through sunset.
The Northern Rockies will continue to be under northwesterly flow aloft on Saturday which in turn keeping a few showers lingering in the higher terrain through the morning hours.
High pressure will maintain its grip one more day, making for a very pleasant start to the weekend.
Otherwise high pressure prevails through Saturday.
425 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 High pressure over the northeastern states will slink off into the northern Atlantic tonight and Saturday.
A large area of high pressure over the Gulf Coast states will keep East Central Florida in deep layer onshore flow. The highest precip chances (40-50%) will be along the coast and dropping off significantly farther inland.
540 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 A weak surface boundary just south of the CSRA will weaken through tonight as ridging overtakes the region. High pressure will be over the region through the weekend resulting in dry weather.
A few light showers or drizzle is possible over the eastern half this evening along and ahead of a cold front. Clouds will then be on the increase Sat ahead of a low pressure system. 500 mb ridge over the sern U. and a trough in the Rockies 12z Sat. Trough moves into the upper Great Lakes 12z Sun and remains through Sun night. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge across the southwestern U. 12z Mon with a trough in the ern U. Troughing moves out into the plains and western U. A low pressure system moving S of the area is expected to bring NE-N Gales to 35-40kts over the eastern half of Lake Superior late Sat night and Sun morning.
238 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 A weak surface boundary just south of the CSRA will weaken through tonight as ridging overtakes the region. High pressure will be over the region through the weekend resulting in dry weather.
1244 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017 High pressure continues over the area.
327 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 High pressure will allow for dry conditions through Saturday night.
258 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 High pressure over the northeastern states will slink off into the northern Atlantic tonight and Saturday.
Surface gradients will be tightening up as a cold front pushed slowly east across the Great Basin with an upper level jet moving overhead. Above normal temperatures expected again today with gridded temps nudged toward warmer MAV guidance.
/issued 524 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017/ Upper level ridge becoming more centralized over eastern Texas and the Deep South today. As the high stabilizes itself over the Gulf Coast an upper level trough begins to dig southeastward towards the area on Saturday. The trough axis will remain just far enough to the northwest to allow a Pacific moisture and a Pacific front to develop ahead of the upper level trough. As the upper level trough continues to drive eastward it will drive a Canadian front which will overtake the Pacific front.
312 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 High pressure centered over the area will move offshore tonight. A cold front will approach from the west later tonight before dropping south into northern New England on Saturday and stalling.
310 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 Unseasonably mild conditions are expected into tonight and Saturday in advance of a low pressure system.
Convergent flow between surface ridging over the Mid-Atlantic and weak low pressure moving into the Gulf, will combine with plentiful moisture and generate a few showers that move into southeast and south-central Georgia from the Atlantic late this afternoon.
323 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 Clouds will be on the increase tonight and Saturday as a cold front slowly moves toward the region.
314 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017 A short wave trough over the Pacific Northwest late this afternoon will be making its way southeast and then east across the Northern Plains through Saturday night. Therefore, with these low clouds along with mid level clouds developing from southwest to northeast with the short wave trough, skies will become cloudy later tonight and Saturday. With deep layer forcing with the advancing short wave trough, showers will spread in from the southwest later tonight and expand through Saturday. The models then show the trough and showers ending quickly Saturday night during the evening across the east. A cold front moving through on Saturday will also bring some breezy northwest winds into the early evening hours.
130 PM MDT Fri Oct 13 2017 18z water vapor imagery indicated cwa under fast WSW flow between trough over the PAC NW and southern plains ridge. At the sfc, cold front was well to the south of the area and was located roughly along a KCNC to KPTT line with high pressure building into the area. For tonight, warm air advection will increase as lee trough and low level jet intensify through the evening. On Saturday, cold front will quickly advance across the area during the afternoon hours.
Most guidance doesn't show much in the way of shower activity, though some of the higher resolution models do hint at scattered thunderstorms developing in the afternoon along and just behind the moisture gradient. Spots in the far northwest may drop in the low 60s since they will still be on the back edge of the moisture gradient by the morning hours.
301 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017 A cold front has slowly pushed into the area today and will back up tonight. Cimarron County may experience freezing temps again, but have held off on a freeze watch for now as it doesn't look like the freezing temps will hit even half of the county.
As the upper high continues to shift eastward, southerly low level flow will increase tonight leading to milder lows tonight compared to this morning. Along with the warmer lows, moisture will be on the increase allowing for more low cloud cover and patchy fog late tonight and into the first part of tomorrow morning.
220 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 High pressure will continue to wedge southward along the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge tonight before eroding by Saturday afternoon.
325 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017 An upper trough and associated cold front will cross the region tonight into Saturday. The main story for our area will be the winds behind the cold front Saturday afternoon and potential fog ahead of the front late tonight into Saturday morning. Low level moisture will increase tonight as the low level flow increases from the southeast ahead of the approaching cold front. Upper trough will be over western Nebraska Saturday afternoon with showers moving to the east ending over the north central as the trough moves to the east.
Aloft - a ridge was centered on the Gulf coast while a trough stretched from western Cuba to far south FL then across the Bahamas. At the surface - a frontal boundary was along the Gulf coast and north FL as high pressure near New England reaches over FL to the Gulf of Mexico. A couple of inverted troughs were over western Cuba and the Bahamas. Temperatures continue to run above normal although the clouds and rainfall will help keep the highs from reaching any record readings.
1105 AM MDT Wed Apr 11 2018 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over northwest MT, with warm front extending southeastward across MT into SD. A large trough sits off the Pacific NW coast. Another very mild day is on tap, especially from northeast WY to southern SD, as warm front remains across northwest through southeast SD through the early afternoon. Breezy west to northwest winds will develop toward the afternoon as the low passes over and east of the area.
Ridge of high pressure currently extending from the Ohio River Valley to Texas will continue to shift eastward today. Low pressure tracking from Nebraska this afternoon to northern Lake Michigan by Thursday morning will remain north of central Illinois. Due to continued strong southerly winds south of the low track, overnight lows will be considerably warmer than they have been in recent nights. with readings remaining in the lower to middle 50s. Breezy and even warmer weather will be on tap for Thursday, as high temperatures soar into the 70s.
233 PM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018 High pressure, warming, and drying trend into the weekend.
The exception will be near Lake Michigan where cooler temperatures are expected.
253 PM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018 High pressure will drift east across the Carolinas today. This high will shift offshore on Thursday, bringing a southwest flow and warming trend, resulting in much above normal temperatures from Thursday into the weekend.
327 PM CDT Wed Apr 11 2018 Broad upper ridging across the area with sunny skies areawide dry air at all lvls, coupled with increased southerly winds, with warming trend underway. Deep upper trough exiting Rockies and moving across central plains thur night with conditions ripening for both severe weather and heavy rainfall as low lvl jet of 50 to 60 kts sets up ahead of storm development. Instability will be fulfilled with any daytime heating between morning low clouds ramping temps to at least 80 degrees and stg upper lvl diffluence out ahead of upper low.