Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A strong Pacific weather system and cold front will bring cool and windy conditions along with another round of snow showers today into tonight. Strong upper-level trough with associated upper-level jet streak will impact the region today through tonight. Cold front moves east across the region this morning, which will increase instability across the region and help to mix down strong winds aloft. This is followed by a second stronger cold front Saturday evening into the overnight which is co-located with the upper trough.
623 AM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021 The main forecast challenges this weekend deal with a brief stint of an upper ridge and its breakdown. Temperatures jump today under a strong warm air advection scheme, then fire weather concerns return Sunday as a cold front brings gusty winds. The closed upper low responsible for dreary conditions yesterday continues on its eastward trek toward the Great Lakes. This evening into tonight, the H85 thermal ridge crosses the area and is quickly followed by the cold front. Blended in some cooler guidance for the usual cool spots in the panhandle, Platte River Valley, and Calamus basin. Most spots should bottom out in the lower to mid 30s. With the upper ridge broken down, western Nebraska enters northwest flow aloft, especially with the next closed low swinging down into the northern Plains.
MVFR ceilings - occasionally IFR at times - are beginning to pivot into our area on the back side of an upper low located over eastern KS at the time of writing. Cooler and breezy conditions this afternoon. The next wave is already moving ashore the Pacific Northwest and will drive the next cold front across the region Sunday night. Flow aloft transitions to a sharply amplified ridge over the eastern Pacific with a large upper low becoming near stationary over the western CONUS.
Several bands of showers persist across the area early this morning as the center of an upper low pushes east across northeast Kansas. At least scattered activity will continue through sunrise with decreasing trends this morning as the low moves into Missouri. Some low cloud lingers through the day with northwest winds following leading to modest warm-air advection and highs in the lower 60s. Weak ridging builds in both aloft and the surface tonight with clear skies. Have gone on the lower end of guidance for low temps in this scenario. Overnight 850 mb WAA should lead to a warmer day Sunday with perhaps some thin cirrus.
A cold front will bring breezy conditions across the northern Nevada this afternoon but no precipitation is expected.
The upper trough supporting this front is also moving onshore at this time, with most of the energy well north of the Medford forecast area. It will be cooler, and afternoon highs today will be around 5 to 10 degrees below normal, especially west of the Cascades. Flow aloft will turn northwesterly later tonight as a long wave ridge moves into place offshore. A thermal trough will develop near the coast and low level northeast to east flow will develop. Areas that don't already have clear skies will get them Saturday night, and winds will become gusty over the ridges. A Freeze Warning is now in effect for west side valleys where agricultural interests are now sensitive to freezing temperatures. Humidity recoveries will be moderate over the west side ridges beginning Sunday night, and will remain that way for the next several nights.
742 AM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a weakening mid/upper level low north of Lake Superior and a stronger mid/upper level low over eastern Kansas. At the surface, a weak trough extended southward from central Lake Superior. Today, no precipitation is expected through most of the day as mid level ridging builds over the area. Under cloudy skies, mild conditions will still prevail with highs climbing into the mid and upper 50s with cooler conditions along the Great Lakes. Tonight, expect rain to spread across Upper Michigan with broad area of isentropic lift and fgen associated with the trowal region of the approaching mid/upper level low. In addition, stiff NE flow will probably cause orographically forced rain to hang on to the higher terrain well into the afternoon.
641 AM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021 A cold front is moving across South Texas. The cold front corresponding to the first upper system will continue to move across the CWA early this morning. Only slightly cooler conditions expected this afternoon. Cooler tonight.
The cold front corresponding to the first upper system will continue to move across the CWA early this morning. Only slightly cooler conditions expected this afternoon. Cooler tonight.
803 AM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021 Winds are still expected to peak late morning through midday as mixing increases into stronger belt of northwesterly flow on the back side of departing closed low. Despite continued deepening of mixing this afternoon, the gradient relaxes as the low continues eastward, and less momentum transfer is expected, so winds will decrease. A closed low will make its way southeastward over eastern KS and into western MO around sunrise. South winds will return overnight and increase a bit over NW OK so overnight lows may be a little tricky with a cooler/drier airmass in place.
632 AM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021 Today will be much cooler (afternoon highs in the 50s) and gusty (20-30 mph), with isolated to numerous rain showers (greatest coverage across central MO and lowest coverage along the AR border). This is due to an upper low moving through the northern CWA.
Drier air wl filter into the region through the day and promote a seasonably pleasant day w/ max T's in the lower to mid 60s over the N and lower 70s to the S.
Fairly nice today, then a cooler pattern ahead. Rain showers continued into the predawn hours associated with an upper low pressure system gradually migrating into eastern Kansas. Afternoon low relative humidity falls to the low 20th percentile west of Highway 281, but decreasing wind speeds should preclude fire weather conditions. On Sunday the western upper trough emerges from the northern Rockies and translates across the northern/central Plains, sending a cold front south through our region during the day.
High pressure will remain across the region through today. A dry cold front will cross the state late tonight night into Sunday.
716 AM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021 Aviation - Rain developing mid day, a few storms too - Mild today, then colder -- Rain developing mid day, a few storms too -- Latest water vapor imagery shows a well defined upper low over eastern Kansas moving east. Models have had this well handled for a few days and forecast this low to move toward Michigan tonight/Sunday and become negatively tilted. Showers will decrease in coverage overnight tonight but not completely end due to the presence of the upper low, which remains over the Lower Peninsula through Sunday.
High pressure to the east and lee troughing to the west will bring southwesterly winds to western Kansas through tonight. The wind direction then slides westward tomorrow morning then northerly by tomorrow evening as a cold front moves through the area.
Prefrontal trough and associated convection continues to advance east across the TN Valley this morning. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 72 49 80 54 / 30 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 70 49 76 53 / 40 10 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 51 71 48 78 52 / 40 10 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 68 46 74 50 / 60 10 0 10 10.
The pressure gradient tightens behind the low and moisture increases.
217 PM MDT Sat Apr 10 2021 The upper level ridge that brought the mild temperatures and dry conditions today will slide off to the east as and upper level trough passes north of Colorado on Sunday. This will bring a cold front into northern Colorado around sunrise Sunday morning. It quicky tracks southward bringing gusty north/northeast winds and cooler temperatures. Highs Sunday afternoon will be about 10-15F cooler than today. Cool unsettled weather is expected through much of the period as an upper level trough moves across the Western U.
934 AM MDT Sat Apr 10 2021 Expect a warm and breezy day today ahead of a strong cold front moving into the area starting this afternoon. A broad upper trough moving into the Rockies along the Canadian border will push a cold front across our region late in the afternoon and through the evening.
257 PM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021 Current surface analysis places low over southern Saskatchewan, with a cold front dropping to the south. Upper level analysis places trough pushing into the Rockies, with ridge over our area. Change come tonight as the aforementioned cold front pushes east and aforementioned upper trough pushes east and deepens. With the cooler air pulling in behind the front, a mix of rain or snow is possible. On Sunday, aforementioned upper trough stops and closes off over the northern plains, resulting in likely precipitation over much of our area.
Where we've lost cloud cover sufficiently, temperatures have or will rebound to near 80 degrees, with dew points in the lower and middle 60s, compared to the lower 70s that were widespread ahead of the front.
After a rather intense morning with damaging winds up to 85 mph and hail up to 4 inches, we can finally take a breath as quieter weather is on tap for at least the next 48 hours as the deep upper trough slowly moves across the area. The broader longwave trough is still lingering back over Missouri and will slowly track northwest over the next 24 hours. In association with this trough is a cold front extending southwest across the Mid-Mississippi valley and will slowly progress eastward with the upper trough. A few isolated showers will be possible late tonight as the upper trough and surface cold front move across the area. Luckily dewpoints will be lower behind the cold front leading to not quite as muggy and swampy feeling.
The winds will continue to increase through the afternoon as a cold front moves through the region. An upper trough to our north will bring a few showers to the higher elevations of Baker County and the West Central Mountains, otherwise it will be dry and mostly clear. VFR with increasing surface winds today after a cold front moves through the region.
318 PM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021 Strong gusty winds have developed under a dry slot associated with the low pressure system over the mid Mississippi Valley. Winds will be slow to subside this evening, since the low pressure center is deepening and low level lapse rates are forecast to remain steep well into the night. Highs will range from the mid 60s in parts of sw Indiana to the lower 70s in southeast Missouri, where sun will be prevalent.
Luckily quieter weather is on tap for at least the next 48 hours as the deep upper trough slowly moves across the area. The broader longwave trough is still lingering back over Missouri and will slowly track northwest over the next 24 hours. In association with this trough is a cold front extending southwest across the Mid-Mississippi valley and will slowly progress eastward with the upper trough. A few isolated showers will be possible late tonight as the upper trough and surface cold front move across the area. Temperatures this afternoon will likely be cooler since rain and clouds have kept temperatures down. Luckily dewpoints will be lower behind the cold front leading to not quite as muggy and swampy feeling. Winds will remain light out of the south until a cold front moves through early Sunday morning.
Ridging is currently aligned across the Eastern Seaboard, with an upper level low currently rotating across northeastern Missouri, with additional short wave energy inbound across the northern Great Basin/Rockies region. At the surface, low pressure is centered across west central Illinois with a cold front positioned to the south across western Kentucky/Tennessee and then down into the lower Mississippi Valley. A more subtle pre-frontal trough is also branched southeast more across central Kentucky and through portions of eastern Kentucky/Tennessee.
Pressure rises behind the cold front that has pushed offshore will lead to breezy to windy conditions for a few hours into early this afternoon over the coastal plains. Winds will briefly become SCA for an hour or two after passage of the cold front which is moving through the offshore waters at this time. /Issued 641 AM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021/ A cold front is moving across South Texas. The cold front corresponding to the first upper system will continue to move across the CWA early this morning. Only slightly cooler conditions expected this afternoon. Cooler tonight.
Tonight we can expect clear skies with lows ranging from the upper 40s to low 50s, which is cooler than the last couple of nights we've had. Tomorrow we shall continue this quiet/rain free set up as mid- level ridging settles in.
An unsettled and cooler weather pattern is expected during the coming week. Warm and moist advection will continue through the evening as a warm front approaches from the southwest. The warm front will arrive with jet supported ascent late this evening and into the overnight and provide a more widespread precipitation chance. The closed low will be slow to depart and is progged to slowly transition east across northern IN and OH on Sunday. Sfc temperatures will be cooler behind the front on Sunday but still slightly above normal.
Large scale rotation around the upper low located north of St Louis will continue to bring periodic light rain and drizzle to the region. As the upper low moves northeast the precipitation will follow suit during the mid to late afternoon. Today will be much cooler (afternoon highs in the 50s) and gusty (20-30 mph), with isolated to numerous rain showers (greatest coverage across central MO and lowest coverage along the AR border). This is due to an upper low moving through the northern CWA.
The higher totals through tomorrow are likely across the Huron Mountains where the northeast flow is expected to provide an orographic enhancement.
We do have some wind shear in place along with a warm front lifting into the area, but it just does not look all that impressive of a threat. -- Rain developing mid day, a few storms too -- Latest water vapor imagery shows a well defined upper low over eastern Kansas moving east. Models have had this well handled for a few days and forecast this low to move toward Michigan tonight/Sunday and become negatively tilted. Showers will decrease in coverage overnight tonight but not completely end due to the presence of the upper low, which remains over the Lower Peninsula through Sunday.
Prefrontal trough and associated convection continues to advance east across the TN Valley this morning. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 51 72 49 80 / 70 20 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 53 70 49 76 / 70 40 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 68 51 71 48 78 / 80 40 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 53 68 46 74 / 80 50 10 0 10.
143 PM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a weakening mid/upper level low north of Lake Superior and a stronger mid/upper level low over eastern Kansas. At the surface, a weak trough extended southward from central Lake Superior. Today, no precipitation is expected through most of the day as mid level ridging builds over the area. Under cloudy skies, mild conditions will still prevail with highs climbing into the mid and upper 50s with cooler conditions along the Great Lakes. Tonight, expect rain to spread across Upper Michigan with broad area of isentropic lift and fgen associated with the trowal region of the approaching mid/upper level low. In addition, stiff NE flow will probably cause orographically forced rain to hang on to the higher terrain well into the afternoon.
The higher totals through tomorrow are likely across the Huron Mountains where the northeast flow is expected to provide an orographic enhancement. In addition, stiff NE flow will probably cause orographically forced rain to hang on to the higher terrain well into the afternoon.
Llvl east-southeast flow will maintain this non- precipitating, stratus deck for much of today across Central PA and the Susq Valley, while the far NW Mtns will see some break of sun through the high cloud layer. Prior to the steady rain beginning around midnight tonight over the Southwest half of the state, and well after midnight across the Middle Susq Valley and points NE, we'll see a cloudy and moderately breezy evening with mild temps in the low to mid 60s. Sunday should be the warmest day of the long-range period south and east of the Allegheny Front, where highs should reach the low to mid 70s. Precip should end Sunday night from west to east fairly quickly as the cold front moves off the coast, but the rain chances for the rest of the week are far from over.
Highs in the low to upper 70s are still expected and should favor the west and southwest where the most sunshine will occur. Additionally, most hi-res guidance continues to suggest a line of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to track west to east across the area this evening along/ahead of a cold front. After frontal passage, cooler/drier air will advect into Central Alabama via northwesterly winds.
215 PM MDT Sat Apr 10 2021 A cold front associated with an upper trough moving along the Canadian border will move through the area late in the afternoon and evening.
1156 AM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021 The aforementioned cold front is nearly out of the region, with its current location along a line of just east of Natchitoches northward to near Monroe, LA. Northwest winds in wake of the front will continue to bring in cooler and drier air to the region, with mostly sunny skies and highs today in the 70s.
(This evening through Sunday) Mid-level winds are weakening as a trough continues to move further east away from our area. Through Sunday, forcing with this next trough will remain well north, but it will send a cold front southward into the area by evening. Preceding the cold front, enhancement of downslope flow component will support temperatures nearly 10 degrees above mid- April climo across our area.
1231 PM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021 Winds are still expected to peak late morning through midday as mixing increases into stronger belt of northwesterly flow on the back side of departing closed low. Despite continued deepening of mixing this afternoon, the gradient relaxes as the low continues eastward, and less momentum transfer is expected, so winds will decrease. A closed low will make its way southeastward over eastern KS and into western MO around sunrise. South winds will return overnight and increase a bit over NW OK so overnight lows may be a little tricky with a cooler/drier airmass in place.
With a trough propagating through the south-central CONUS and the dominant area of high pressure off the western Atlantic continuing to push eastward, the overall pressure gradient should continue to weaken throughout the afternoon, resulting in a noticeable reduction in wind speeds. High pressure centered northeast of the Bahamas will continue to slide eastward through the weekend as a trough of low pressure in the south-central United States moves into the Southeast.
As for highs on Sunday temperatures will be cooler across the northern Sandhills with the front pushing through the area earlier and colder air moving in behind. Across southwest Nebraska extending into eastern north central Nebraska temperatures will be slightly warmer with highs reaching the upper 50s to around 60 degrees.
Much cooler with highs 50 to 55. Weakening vertically stacked cyclone carries ewd through nrn IN Sunday. Regardless much cooler underneath cold pocket aloft with widespread light rain for most through the day. Tremendous downstream block persists this period over the n ATL/srn GL of which keeps elongated troughing aloft aligned through the nrn/ern lakes.
401 PM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021 Strong low pressure will track towards the region tonight and then cross the region Sunday.
The upper low over the Mid-Mississippi River valley will move northeast to the Great Lakes region Sunday with another upper low moving into the northern plains. A dry northwest flow aloft will remain over the region tonight with a weak short wave ridge moving into south Texas Sunday night.
321 PM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021 Tonight: Winds should diminish around sunset with ridge axis moving through overnight. Odds favor cooler than expected temperatures (and guidance) as return flow is weak.
1144 AM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021 Large scale rotation around the upper low located north of St Louis will continue to bring periodic light rain and drizzle to the region. As the upper low moves northeast the precipitation will follow suit during the mid to late afternoon. Today will be much cooler (afternoon highs in the 50s) and gusty (20-30 mph), with isolated to numerous rain showers (greatest coverage across central MO and lowest coverage along the AR border). This is due to an upper low moving through the northern CWA.
208 PM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021 The cold front is still located to the west but is starting to nudge into northwest Alabama. The upper level pattern features a deep closed low to the north centered over Missouri. The upper level closed low and cold front will continue to push eastward this afternoon and into the overnight hours. Much drier air advects in behind the cold front tonight. Therefore, expect temperatures will warm quickly into the low to mid 70s on Sunday.
Copious amounts of frontogenetical forcing and moisture were wrapping around the low, leading to moderate and at times heavy rain across the area. In fact, cloud breaks to even all sunshine are expected for portions of east central Iowa tomorrow afternoon as high pressure aloft briefly builds across the area. The higher end of the range is favored in southeast Iowa and northeast Missouri where sun is expected for the afternoon. Broad west to east troughing will set up slightly north of the area, from the Dakotas into the Eastern Great Lakes, keeping the steady rain to our north and east.
229 PM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021 Summary: Cool and damp weather continues as a large area of low pressure moves north through Lake Michigan wrapping around bands of precipitation that will impact the Northland for several days. A large area of low pressure will slide up Lake Michigan into Sunday as it merges with an upper level low and elongates zonally across the Northland.
High pressure has taken up residence over the Southern Plains in the wake of last night's cold frontal passage with a gradually diminishing northerly breeze. High temperatures tomorrow will range between 80 degrees east of I-35 to around 90 degrees near Breckenridge and Graham.
High pressure has taken up residence over the Southern Plains in the wake of last night's cold frontal passage with a gradually diminishing northerly breeze.
The cold front that moved through last night has moved off the coast leaving sunny skies, temperatures closer to normal (but still above normal), and breezy northerly winds in its wake. This is thanks to surface ridging behind the front. 850 mb temperatures continue to show a thermal ridge to the west which should help afternoon highs rebound back into the upper 80s to low 90s area wide.
500mb cutoff low over MO will begin to pivot eastward into the OH valley and as it does so a cold front will move toward the region and through the area early Sunday AM as the upper levels transition from SW flow to a drier WNW flow.
Pressure rises behind the cold front that has pushed offshore will lead to breezy to windy conditions for a few hours into early this afternoon over the coastal plains. Winds will briefly become SCA for an hour or two after passage of the cold front which is moving through the offshore waters at this time. The cold front corresponding to the first upper system will continue to move across the CWA early this morning. Only slightly cooler conditions expected this afternoon. Cooler tonight.
A large cut-off low pressure system will develop and move over southeastern Oregon and northern Nevada to start this coming week.