Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1210 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015 TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S THIS MORNING. SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING HAS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN WI WITH CLEAR/CALM CONDITIONS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. PLAN ON INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS. FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH A DECENT PUSH OF 700-300MB PV-ADVECTION AND 850MB MOIST TRANSPORT. HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
1233 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015 RIDGE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ACROSS IOWA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND WAA HELPING TO WARM TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST LATE IN THE PERIOD.
350 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. CLOSEST TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT AS WELL AS THE RIDGE AXIS. AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO BOUNCE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS UP AROUND 70 IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH.
630 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED A LEE SIDE TROUGH INTO THE FA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WHICH WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED TROUGH. DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH THE INCREASING LSA PER THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS ALONG THE STALLED LL TROUGH. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE STALLED TROUGH. MAIN IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT A LL TROUGH THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT. UPPER TROUGH AND LL REFLECTION WILL SHIFT EAST THURSDAY. HOWEVER LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOWS HAVE A HABIT OF MOVING SLOWER THAN FORECAST MODEL PROGS.
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE PERIOD, CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LOWER HUMIDITIES. AS THE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 40S MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S LOWER ELEVATIONS CENTRAL AND SOUTH. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK THURSDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WITH DRY AIR AND HIGH SUN ANGLE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S MOST LOW ELEVATIONS AND 70S MOUNTAINS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH THE TROUGH GAINING A NEGATIVE TILT THIS EVENING AND THE FLOW ALOFT GOING SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL FORM OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST OF PT ARENA ON THU WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION.
627 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
Rainfall rates have generally been decreasing this morning with the rain bands wrapping around low pressure stalled around Moses Lake. The rain bands should become less organized this afternoon and this evening as the 500mb vorticity maxima (over wrn Montana at 11 AM) continues to pull east of our resident upper low. The center of low pressure is parked near Moses Lake with bands of light to moderate rain pivoting into northeast Washington, along the East Slopes of the Cascades, and north Idaho. Spokane and Coeur D'Alene should also experience an increase in the low cloud deck as afternoon heating produces lifts stratus into a mid-layer cumulus deck. Widespread improvement in the low ceilings should occur between 00z-06z as low pressure shears apart and lifts north.
215 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY.
348 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT.
WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
233 PM MDT WED MAY 13 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROF NOW OVER CENTRAL COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST AND NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TROF AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MIDNIGHT WITH DECREASING TREND OF SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS NOW OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS JUST AHEAD OF CYCLONE AND CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WHICH HAS SHIFTED INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT WILL SHIFT OVER COLORADO LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OFF CALIFORNIA COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON THURSDAY WITH MORE HEATING.
PATCHY GROUND FOG HAD DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT FROM FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TONIGHT TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN. WITHIN THERMAL RIDGE AND STRONG INSOLATION/POOLED SFC DPS IN UPR 60S/NEAR 70.
A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE BORDER SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD REACH GREAT FALLS AND LEWISTOWN IN THE 3 AM TO 6 AM TIME FRAME. A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THRU NORTH CENTRAL MT THIS MORNING. THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS A BROAD, UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME AVAILABLE MOISTURE TUESDAY WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 50 BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY ABOVE. A BIT OF A JET WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN HEIGHTS ALOFT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES BY WEDNESDAY.
400 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WILL CLEAR MOST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TO BE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AT 2 AM. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE NWRN THIRD OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE THOUGHT LINE OF U60S IN THE FAR NW AS 8H TEMPS DIP TO +10 AND EARLY CLOUDS/RAIN WILL KEEP IT COOLER THERE. MOST WILL BE DRY AND CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE OCCURS POST-TROUGH-AXIS PASSAGE. VERY MINOR RIDGING AT THE SFC WILL PROVIDE JUST 18 TO 24 HRS OF DRY/NO RAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S FOR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS.
429 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015 THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEYS STRETCHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID SOUTH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS APPARENT FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THESE STORMS WERE DEVELOPING NEAR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM DAYTIME CONVECTION AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT REMAINS FROM NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO ARKANSAS. ALL MODELS LEAVE ENERGY BEHIND OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AS THE MAIN TROUGH EXITS NORTHEASTWARD.
/ISSUED 307 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015/ PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE. THE COLD FRONT STRUGGLES TO GET TOO FAR S AND NOT VERY FAST AND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL GA AREA. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING WESTWARD INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD SO REDUCED POPS STILL LOOK OKAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. 41 MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CARVE OUT AN UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED RIDGE AXIS CONTINUED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE LARGE SCALE RIDGING WILL NOT CHANGE ITS POSITION OR STRENGTH MUCH TODAY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS (50-55 PERCENT) ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR WHERE THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND STRONGEST WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE.
AS THE LOW OUT IN THE PACIFIC MOVES INLAND. THE MAIN AND STRONGEST PART OF THE LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA. WITH A WEAKER TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD AND SWINGING ACROSS THE STATE. WITH THE LATTER BEING THE LOWEST THREAT AT THE MOMENT. 80S AND LOW 90S ARE ON TAP ONCE AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS TODAY WITH 70S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. TOMORROW WILL BE COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER.
344 AM PDT TUE JUN 9 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST WILL BRING A NORTHWARD SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BLANCA TODAY.
435 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015 DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL MOISTEN SOME TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER NEW MEXICO AND DRAW UP MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS AND REMNANTS OF TD BLANCA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETREATS BACK OVER MEXICO AS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ONSHORE OVER CALIFORNIA.
MODELS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FOR POPS/QPF. WEDNESDAY WILL TURN A LITTLE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT.
241 AM PDT TUE JUN 9 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND ENTRAIN MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BLANCA.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY TO THE WEST TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE RED RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE ANY STORMS DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. BRIEF QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE AREA. BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN IN THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
329 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015 OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDING DATA SHOWS DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S THIS MORNING SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION IN THE EARLY MORNING DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH/DECREASE IN MIXING RATIO WITH HEIGHT. CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U. AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.
628 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT COMPLETES PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. WHAT'S LEFT OF THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING. UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS SAGGING SE INTO AR. MAIN UPPER LIFT DOES PUSH EAST OF AR AND HENCE THE LOWER POP FOR AR. /ISSUED 637 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015/ COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH WITH SOME TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT.
321 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015 QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT NOW AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IR SATELLITE SHOWING SCATTERED ALTOCUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO 850-700MB ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT ALONG THE US/MT/ND BORDER.
301 AM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER COLORADO TODAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER CONDITIONS WITH IT. MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A CLOSED LOW WILL BE OVER CA/NV WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER CO. THE TROUGH WILL OPEN UP.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY KEEPING THINGS DRY OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SLIP INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN WASH OUT ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/TROUGHING FROM THE MORNING'S CONVECTION SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AMIDST 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND PW OF 1. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THICKNESSES ARE ABOUT 5 METERS HIGHER TODAY AND HIGHS SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER FOR MOST AREAS. A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIP INTO THE AREA ESSENTIALLY MERGE WITH THE LEE TROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE WASHING OUT ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS 500MB RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE WEAK 500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ALLOWING SHALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE 500MB RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST THROUGH MID WEEK AS MID LEVEL WEAKNESS DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
356 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. TONIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REACHING QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT UPPER LOW SPINS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS AND NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. VERY WARM AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK CANADIAN TROUGH. WHICH WILL THEN SWEEP A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND UPPER LOW EJECTS ENERGY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS IT MOVES ONSHORE.
119 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. 5H TROF AXIS SWINGS INTO CENTRAL PA BY 12Z TUE. MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH THROUGH THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE/PWATS ARE FORECAST TO HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY IN THE DAY SO THE POTENT TROUGH WILL BE WORKING ON AN INCREASINGLY DRY AIRMASS. HIGHS IN THE LOWERS 70S TO LOWER 80S FROM NW TO SE WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE. AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY LATER TUESDAY.
Upper ridge will remain in control with abundant high clouds expected through the period. The upper ridge centered over Northern Mexico extends northward across NM and W TX while a closed low spins off the coast of CA. As this low swings east the next few days the ridge will be displaced back to the SW. Went under guidance today for the west but warmer than yesterday as cannot count on the clouds hanging in all day.
123 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. FOCUS OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACTIVITY AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT. UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.
WV IMAGERY SHOWED A S/W TROF MOVG ESE THROUGH SASK/MANITOBA. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD WSTRN LK SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. CAUSING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO NORTHERN WI. THE THREAT OF TSTMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT CLEARS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT. LEADING TO A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE WEAK 500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ALLOWING SHALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE 500MB RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST THROUGH MID WEEK AS MID LEVEL WEAKNESS DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
359 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2015 (Today and Tonight) Still quiet for most areas of West Central Texas, with the Upper Level Ridge of high pressure extending from Mexico northward across the Southern Rockies.
154 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN THE REGION TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH WEST TO EAST ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ONE LAST COOL NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL BE FOUND TUES NIGHT. THEN RETURN FLOW PERMITS INCREASED MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION. WED HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS KEEPING ABOVE 65 DEG WILL OCCUR AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT STRETCHES OUT AND DRAPES W-E ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS 500MB RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS 500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WEAK H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOVER ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND NE MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS START TO CHANGE TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE GETS SHOVED TO THE WEST BY THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A LOBE FROM THE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO TX LATER TOMORROW. LESSENED RIDGING ALOFT AND WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE ONSHORE.
137 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. BEFORE 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTH.
346 AM MDT TUE JUN 9 2015 BROAD/FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN US TODAY. A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LLVL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTN.
WHICH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF T-STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THERE AGAIN MAY JUST ENOUGH WEAKNESS IN THE NE SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO ALLOW SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. TO NEAR 70 IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS.
206 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 SHOWERY PERIODS WILL LAST THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS IS FORECAST REASONABLY WELL BY LATEST GUIDANCE TO ADVANCE ON OUR AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH EXPECT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL THERMODYNAMICS AND A CONTINUATION OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. SYSTEM FINALLY PUSHES OUT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY PERIOD SETTING UP INTO FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES IN.
/00Z TAF UPDATE/ UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM SW TX TO THE NRN ROCKIES WILL KEEP WINDS MAINLY BELOW 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIODS. MODEL TIME SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY LAYER AT 5000-1000 FT AGL TO HELP WITH RAPID MIXING OF THE LOW CIGS WELL BEFORE NOON TUESDAY. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS WITH A TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR GALVESTON AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR CWA WAS FAIRLY LOOSE WITH LIGHT WINDS TURNING FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS WILL ERODE THE RIDGE A BIT OVER OUR EASTERN AREA.
A ridge of high pressure will make the Northern Rockies hot again today, though no records are expected to be set. Some southwest moisture will work its way under the ridge and cause thunderstorms across portions of central Idaho and southwest Montana this afternoon. Lemhi county, ID, Anaconda and across the Continental Divide, including Butte, have the highest chance of thunderstorms today. On Wednesday the ridge breaks down with a weak cold front causing a cool down, though temperatures will still remain above average.
615 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
352 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015 A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY.
WE SHOULD SEE A NICE RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S.
Otherwise, its a dry forecast through the short term as NW flow aloft today gets shunted north in response to a building upper ridge from the south by Wednesday. The upper ridge builds in by Wednesday with a noticeable increase in H85 temps and 1000-850 mb thicknesses.
AN UPPER TROUGH TRACKS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW TONIGHT. KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVERNIGHT. THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SHIFTING TO THE CENTRAL ID MTNS AND S-CENTRAL ID. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DRIER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL CUT OFF PRECIP DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF SE OREGON /NV BORDER REGION THE EXCEPTION/ WITH A DIMINISHING CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST IN IDAHO ZONES.
The upper ridge centered over Northern Mexico extends northward across NM and W TX while a closed low spins off the coast of CA. As this low swings east the next few days the ridge will be displaced back to the SW. Went under guidance today for the west but warmer than yesterday as cannot count on the clouds hanging in all day.
THIS TROUGH HAS PROVIDED JUST ENOUGH VERTICAL ASCENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EARLY MORNING ALONG A WEAK FRONT OVER SRN AR. SEVERAL OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SHORT-TERM MODELS INDICATE THE MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME TODAY MAKING THE FRONT MORE DEFINED.
322 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. BILLINGS WRIGHT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES TODAY BEFORE FLATTENING OUT AS THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA COME ON SHORE AND MOVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL CONUS. DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE WEAK TROUGH SUPPORTS A CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE. THE MODELS SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT. LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS BASED ON THE SURFACE FEATURE AND UPPER TROUGHING. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAYED H5 RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS POPS WERE 10 TO 30 PERCENT DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGH VALUES MAINLY EARLY WITH H5 RIDGING NOT QUITE AS STRONG.
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOTED STRETCHING THROUGH WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO SOUTHEASTERN ALBERTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA.
ACCORDING TO THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. SAVE FOR RIGHT ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER OVER THE RATON RIDGE SOUTH OF TRINIDAD.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WITH BROAD NW FLOW ACROSS WRN CNDA/NRN PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS ND TODAY AND INTO NW SD LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS TREND OF WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY CONTINUES WITH LATEST GUIDANCE. THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BREAK DOWN AS IT PUSHES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. CLOSED 700/850MB LOW WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS WITH STRONG MOISTURE INFLUX AND UPPER AIR FORCING.
402 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015 A RIDGE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY FOR OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
338 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW IN CENTRAL MANITOBA SOUTHWESTWARD TO ANOTHER LOW NEAR THE BORDER OF SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA.