Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
646 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017 Warm air advection ahead of a deep upper trough to the west produced several areas of showers through the day today, but this activity is finally clearing out as the best mid-level moisture shifts into Iowa. Additional showers and storms will likely develop later tonight ahead of a slow-moving cold front advancing across Nebraska. Upper trough to the west will gradually become more sheared in nature and edge eastward through the middle of the week which will allow the boundary to the west to slowly edge southeast into our area.
Most sites should improve into at least the low end of VFR by 02/17z.
/issued 234 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017/ Starting to see some echoes forming across our eastern most zones this afternoon and this is in response to daytime heating and a tongue of increased moisture in association with an easterly trough of low pressure present in the 700-850mb layer field. Rapid increase in dewpoint temperatures this afternoon as this higher PWAT atmosphere retrogrades westward into our region overnight which will result in warmer overnight temperatures areawide.
1045 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 High pressure extending into the area from the northeast will shift slowly to the east over the next few days.
A broad upper level trough was located across the central Rockies and will remain stationary as a shorter wave-length trough along the OR and northern CA coast digs southeast into the base of the broad upper level trough across the four corners region by Monday afternoon. The higher grid resolution models show a line of scattered thunderstorms developing across west central KS through the evening hours, then lifting northeast across north central KS during the early morning hours of Monday. Monday, as the west-central conus trough amplifies the cold front will begin moving north and northwest across eastern NE into northwest KS. Monday night, an amplified positively tilted trough is seen over the northwestern and north central US with a large ridge over the East.
Snow has picked up across the high country as the lift increases. On the plains, a cold front has dropped down out of Wyoming, bringing northerly winds and cooler temperatures. Much cooler temperatures are also expected through tomorrow.
1136 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 High pressure will bring moderating temperatures and dry weather for the new work week. Many of the zones/counties across the north and west have reached freezing last night - a list is included below in the climate section. Temperatures will also continue to moderate as the high moves off to the NE and we start to see a milder southerly flow develop.
should kick in late tonight as the upper level trof continues to dig across the northern Rockies. Stagnant rex blocking pattern across the west coast of North America will yield a cooler than normal week ahead along with periodic bouts of shower chances. Trough that brings widespread precipitation to the region Sunday/Monday will be depart Monday night, with lingering precipitation dissipating overnight west-east.
Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the lower to mid 70s. Mid/upper level ridging will hold over the eastern U. and Florida for the first half of the week then the ridge shifts west with troughing moving in from the southeast. At the surface a large area of high pressure will over the northeast U. will continue to ridge south into the region with a breezy east to northeast flow persisting.
We will have an overall break in precipitation chances the next couple of days until a cold front brushes up near the Panhandles before stalling.
851 PM MDT Sun Oct 1 2017 Deepening upper trough has settled into the northern Rockies. This will bring cooler and wet weather the next couple of days.
839 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warmer weather through the first half of the week. Another mostly quiet night in progress as upper ridge axis trudges across the Ohio Valley, but did make some minor changes. Upped cloud cover slightly through the night as cirrus spilling over the ridge moves across the CWA from west to east. Also, given the low dewpoints and generally clear skies, did lower temperatures in a few locations, mainly across southern counties. However, temperatures are running a few degrees warmer as compared to last night, and the cirrus and warm advection aloft will add further minor impediments as well. High pressure will result in continued dry weather through the period with a warming trend in temperatures.
/28/ Tonight and Tomorrow: The ArkLaMiss will remain on the western periphery of a steep upper ridge that is positioned over the eastern half of the US. A disturbance in the lower and mid levels will begin to approach the region overnight from the SE. Best chances for showers tomorrow will exist in the southern portions of the region where moisture will be the highest.
735 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warmer weather through the first half of the week. increased cloud cover slightly for the evening with cirrus ahead of approaching upper ridge axis. High pressure will result in continued dry weather through the period with a warming trend in temperatures.
Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower 40s northwest to the mid 50s east. High temperatures on Monday will be in the lower to mid 60s as cooler air settles in behind the exiting frontal boundary. We will start this time period with what we've been dealing with for quite some time now, a 500mb ridge over the eastern U. and a significant trough over the rest of the nation.
VFR this period as the south flow continues ahead of Plains low/trough. Airmass is dry in the lower levels, but a few sprinkles mainly northwest of madison this evening. The pressure gradient will tighten up a bit between the high to our east and the low to our west. Medium A steady south/southeast wind will prevail this period between departing high pressure through the eastern Lakes and a trough of low pressure in the northern/central Plains. Nevertheless temps should reach well into the 70s with cooler readings near the lake due to an onshore component there.
A robust high pressure is centered over the northeast US, with a weak trough across central Florida. A weak low over the central Gulf of Mexico, is attached to the tail end of the weak trough across Florida.
806 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 High pressure extending into the area from the northeast will shift slowly to the east over the next few days.
/Issued 800 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017/ A light south to southeast breeze will keep overnight temperatures warmer than the past couple nights.
943 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 A weak back door cold front will cross the region from eastern Quebec overnight. High pressure will then continue build across the region through mid week. 930 PM Update: Minor forward adjustments were again made to the tmg of the cld field sliding Swrd from Ern QB prov into Rgn alg a backdoor cold front currently arriving into far Nrn ptns of the FA. Orgnl Disc: A weakening cold front will move south across the region tonight. High pressure will build across the region Monday with mostly sunny skies. High temperatures Monday will range from the upper 50s to around 60 north to the lower to mid 60s Downeast. Cool high pressure builds in Monday night with another chilly night. Right now, looks like a solid frost but unsure if it will get to freezing.
Lows will be a little warmer, with lows mainly in the mid 60s.
809 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 Dry conditions are expected through the middle of the week as high pressure influences the weather across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
Upper pattern features broad troughing over west half of Conus with strong ridge over eastern half of Conus.
At this time cannot rule out the possibility of very localized areas of heavy rains given the high PWs/slow storm motions, but the lack of specific focusing mechanism should prevent widespread heavy rains. POPS will then be tapering off Weds as moisture levels decrease/ upper ridge begins building in from the east. Drier/warmer temps are expected during the second half of the week as the ridge settles over the area. 41 Roughly easterly flow continues across the Gulf between high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic and low pressure over the Bay of Campeche, and will continue for some time.
806 PM EDT Sun Oct 01 2017 Canadian high pressure will extend into central North Carolina from the north through mid week. However, given the aforementioned cloud expectations, readings could be a little warmer than they otherwise would be under clear skies and light winds. Ridging both sfc and aloft will continue right through this part of the forecast.
These regions still covered quite well in precip chances overnight, though expected to decrease in coverage, not enough confidence under influence of trough to decrease forecast significantly. Will also leave Freeze Warning in place, with most valley temps below 40 already with exception of windier Magic Valley, don't see much of a stretch in reaching freezing temps by morning.
/10/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Tomorrow: The ArkLaMiss will remain on the western periphery of a steep upper ridge that is positioned over the eastern half of the US. A disturbance in the lower and mid levels will begin to approach the region overnight from the SE. Best chances for showers tomorrow will exist in the southern portions of the region where moisture will be the highest.
KCDS broke out this afternoon and the lower clouds will stay mostly to the west overnight, however MVFR will be possible between 12-16Z.
A break in the rain will probably occur for a good part of the morning Monday but given the low and mid level frontal boundary draped across the area, will leave some mention of showers.
959 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 Dry conditions are expected through the middle of the week as high pressure influences the weather across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
931 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 High pressure will be in control of our weather for the next several days, bringing sunny days and clear nights with valley fog. Mainly clear skies will continue Monday night though not as cold with lows in the lower to middle 40s.
337 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017 Low pressure will lift northeast from the southern Plains today to the western Great Lakes tonight likely causing showers and possibly thunderstorms to spread into the area by late tonight.
Well below normal temperatures can be expected today as colder air surges southward into western Kansas in wake of the cold frontal passage yesterday, dropping H85 temperatures to around 5C across central Kansas to a little above 10C along the Colorado border. Considering cloud cover may linger through much of the morning, look for highs only up into the 50s(F) across central Kansas to possibly the lower 60s(F) in extreme southwest Kansas where clouds are likely to scatter out earlier in the day. Expect lows down into the 30s(F) in central Kansas tonight with the lower 40s(F) possible in far southwest Kansas.
358 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017 Today & Tonight: During the night, a DEEP upper-deck long wave trof that played vital role in severe thunderstorm development across primarily OK continued to move E. The ewd-moving long wave will continue to push a strong, but slow-moving, cold front SE with the front not expected to reach the Lwr-MS Valley until this eve. As the cold front continues to push SE, inverted lwr-deck ridging will punch S. Sat-Sun: We're in for a sopping wet weekend as the afore-mentioned upper- deckcyclone moves in a more Ely manner across Southwest KS & the Panhandles Sat Night. With the intense mid-upper cyclone tracking E/NE across Wrn OK late Sat Night rainfall intensities would increase. Scattered light showers are expected overnight into midday Wednesday as the upper trough pushes through the Central Plains.
201 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017 Col between systems gives way to southerly flow on Wednesday, ahead of a cold front that will weaken as it crosses Thursday night. As the upper level low over the Carolinas moves northeast off the Atlantic coast, winds aloft will decrease and back from the west southwest, ahead of an approaching cold front. A brief high pressure builds over the OH Valley Wednesday providing dry conditions from tonight through Wednesday night. The next cold front approaches Thursday with chance for showers or storms ahead of the front. S/W ridging breaks down Thursday with a subsequent front entering into the area during the evening hours. There looks to be some convective activity in the afternoon with a prefrontal trof crossing.
A cold front will sweep across the region on Thursday with high pressure briefly building in behind the front. Weak high pressure over the region overnight. Expect lows from the mid/upper 50s west to the lower 50s east. Upper level ridging will sharpen along the western edge of the Appalachians with southerly low level flow increasing during the day. A cold front will move through on Thursday. Temperatures will begin to cool during the afternoon hours as cooler air works into the region.
454 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017 High pressure will prevail across the region today and tonight.
252 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017 Light snow or flurries over western Nebraska early this morning are expected to end by sunrise as the upper closed low over the Dakotas shifts east.
Only light amounts of precipitation are expected across the region into this evening as the system slides down in west-northwest flow over the eastern Pacific ridge. Snow levels will be above 8K feet through the event, so little or no impact to travel expected through the higher northern Sierra passes.
134 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017 Low pressure in the central plains will move northeast to the western Great Lakes by Wednesday evening. A cold front will extend south to the texas coast. The low will continue northeast into Canada Thursday which will force the cold front east across the area.
417 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017 Biggest issue in the short term is the approaching cold front which will move through the area late this afternoon into this evening bringing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Behind the front a brief reprieve with slightly cooler and drier air filtering into the region Thursday. High pressure quickly scoots off to the east though veering winds back to the south and ushering in much warmer temperatures and dewpoints.
The cold front will then slowly begin to move from w-e across srn WI thus more areas of showers and possibly a tstorm will occur. For tnt, the strong upper trough currently over the srn Rockies will track to TX then swing newd to IL by 12z Wed. The low will track from srn IL to nrn Lake MI.
1116 PM MDT Tue Apr 25 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southeast WY, with frontal boundary south and west of the forecast area. Upper level analysis shows low pressure over the Black Hills, starting to move eastward. Large trough covers the western half of the US. Skies will become partly cloudy with high temperatures in the 40s, some upper 30s across the higher Black Hills.
The guidance remains optimistic and given the higher heights think this is reasonable. During this time, the models are in fair agreement as a trough and surface cold front advances east but it being sheared out against stout blocking just off the East Coast. A possible scenario could be the best convection farther to the north into OH and PA with the low.
A Frontal system will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight into Thursday followed by cooler temperatures. Plains cyclone will have continued gradual veering of winds from SE to S and low levels will respond with modest warm air advection. although thermal ridge axis and associated mid-trop height rises will focus to the east of our area. expect little response in boundary layer moisture as dewpoints only gradually respond up into the low to mid 50s. Upper trof over the Rockies will amplify as jet dynamics impinge on the backside.
531 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017 High pressure provides sunshine and very warm temperatures today. Thereafter, quiet weather is anticipated through tonight as a 500 mb ridge ambles across. Heights will rise in response to a digging trough across the Plains, leading to a significant warmup today. Readings will be some 10 to 20 degrees warmer than yesterday, with many locations reaching or topping 80 degrees. Main event this period is still the ejection of the Plains trough into the Great Lakes by Thursday afternoon. Given afternoon temperatures in the lower to mid 80s across much of the area with upper 50s dewpoints, think that instability may be sufficient to overcome mid-level capping, which could be mitigated by mid to late afternoon anyway as cooler 700 mb temperatures arrive.
1235 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017 Latest water vapor imagery showed cyclonic flow prevailing over the western and central CONUS with a mid-level closed low evident over eastern WY. Upper level trough over WY to the Four corners will move east to the Upper Midwest-Southern Plains tomorrow.
Tranquil weather will continue in the near term dominated by high pressure ridging both at the surface and aloft. The region will be between a developing storm system across the Lower Mississippi River Valley and a ridge of high pressure east of the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. It will also be warmer with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s over inland areas.
Will see how this develops over the next several hours as upper low is forecast to propagate from western SD this evening, into north central SD around midnight, and then move slowly into northeast SD through through midday Wednesday. Collaborated with WPC and surrounding offices, and the overall assessment is that the NAM12 holds merit with regards to large scale forcing/ascent, but mesoscale processes associated with the high qpf/snowfall has enough uncertainty at this time to question its validity. Latest suite of satellite imagery shows a mid/upper level closed low circulating over eastern Wyoming.
Elongated area of low pressure extends from Eastern Iowa thru Missouri into the Southern Plains early this morning. ranging from the 40s downstream of Lake Huron to the Lower 60s along the Lake Michigan shoreline thanks in part to downslope flow. Low pressure will continue to lift NE thru Wisconsin today and into Eastern Upper Michigan and Eastern Lake Superior tonight. to the low to mid 70s across much of Northern Lower Michigan away from Lake Huron. Low pressure finally moves across the region and drags a cold front across the area by afternoon.
A mid level ridge of high pressure over Florida and the southeastern CONUS today will gradually shift east into an Atlantic through Thursday as a broad trough swings through the southern Mississippi River Valley. At the surface, Atlantic high pressure ridging across the southern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula will edge slightly east on Thursday, keeping dry and stable conditions in place with rain chances remaining minimal. Highs on Thursday are forecast to top out in the mid to upper 80s along the coast, and in the low to mid 90s inland.
349 AM MDT Wed Apr 26 2017 After a period of warm weather and the emergence of new spring vegetation across the area, temperatures around freezing are expected again after midnight tonight through the early morning hours on Thursday. With a period of mostly clear skies and light winds after sunset, expect temperatures in the lower to mid 30s overnight with areas of frost developing.
417 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017 A strong upper-level trough will take a swipe at the region late tonight as the trough base swings from the Ark-La-Tex toward the Ohio Valley. The 500mb trough axis is now expected to flatten as the strongest forcing brushes by to our northwest. This type of trough evolution along with 500mb winds becoming more westerly, will be favorable for the QLCS to transition into a broken line of bowing segments and supercells as it moves across the CWA.
Temperatures today and Thursday will run about 10 degrees below average as a trough sets up over the Northern Rockies. After today's rain, a reinforcing shot of cooler air will move in from the northwest, bringing snow showers during Thursday morning for locations above 3000 to 3500 ft.
1138 PM MDT Tue Apr 25 2017 Current LAPS surface analysis shows a cold front sliding southward into Colorado this afternoon with a band of convection just along the boundary. Temperatures will not rebound all that much as another round of convection is expected in the afternoon once the ridge axis moves into the plains.
641 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017 Aviation A low pressure system developing in the Southern Plains will take a track through the Western Great Lakes region on Thursday. with the highest pops closer to the lakeshore.
This is where the highest potential for any mixed pcpn will take place in the next 24 hours. A ridge of high pressure extending from Canada will remain across northeastern SD and west central MN through much of the period. This will be while the 500mb trough set up from the eastern Dakotas down through OK exits only slightly to the east.
Expect warmer low Thu night (mid 60s) in assoc/w low-level moisture advection from the SW and likely development of low stratus during the pre-dawn hours. -Vincent Classic summertime pattern emerges for late week and into the weekend under the influence of a strengthening ~590 dm H5 ridge over the western Atlantic.
Warmer and drier weather will return to the region this afternoon and on Thursday.
450 AM MDT Wed Apr 26 2017 Upper level analysis has large trof over the central CONUS with weakening closed low over the Dakotas. At the surface, Canadian high pressure has moved into western areas with boundary layer winds out of the north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Broad upper trof over the Front Range and High Plains expected to remain in place through the end of the week.
The flow over central CA is due to a northeast Pacific ridge and the broad upper trough in the interior west.
Broken line of ongoing convection across Eastern Oklahoma will continue to shift eastward into Northwest Arkansas overnight tonight and into Wednesday as a cold front makes its way through the region. Have also lowered overnight low temperatures given the magnitude of the cold air spreading south across Kansas behind the cold front.
635 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017 High pressure over the Atlantic will build in this afternoon through the weekend bringing above normal temperatures and below normal rain chances.
Mixed precip will continue to switch over this morning as warm temps aloft fall below freezing which occurred early this morning at BJI. Went ahead and added OT and Wadena counties for accumulating mix of freezing rain and ice this morning. Will need to monitor trends under the highest reflectivities to see how the forecast can be improved/updated.
First, freezing rain is possible early this morning before the column becomes completely saturated. Second, as temperatures rise this afternoon snow may mix with rain and surface temperatures may rise briefly above freezing.
354 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017 A low pressure system off the North Carolina coast will move slowly northeast through Wednesday. Improving conditions develop Wednesday afternoon and especially into Thursday as a ridge of high pressure moves into the region.
Low pressure will continue to lift up the eastern seaboard from the mid Atlantic region today and tonight with Atlantic ridge building across the FL peninsula next 24 hours. High temperatures will climb into the mid 80s inland but top out in the lower 80s near the coast with the onshore flow developing early in the afternoon. Mostly clear skies tonight but rising dew points in the S-SW low level flow will help hold min temperatures in the low/mid 60s.
122 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017 Low pressure will move further away from the area tonight, allowing for weak high pressure to return in its place. High pressure will prevail across the region Wednesday.
204 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017 A low pressure system off the North Carolina coast will move slowly northeast through Wednesday. Improving conditions develop Wednesday afternoon and especially into Thursday as a ridge of high pressure moves into the region.