Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
547 AM MDT THU AUG 25 2016 Upper low spins over southern Manitoba, with trough stretching across much of the ConUS. At this surface, high pressure is moving into the region from the northwest. Initial trough will dissipate into westerly flow today, while a secondary trough sets up over the Rockies. Cool 850 mb airmass will keep highs below average today, ranging from the 60s across the Black Hills and northeastern WY to the lower 70s across south central SD. Chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms will increase tonight, as upper trough begins to move across the northern plains. Thermal ridge will start moving toward the region, and temperatures will warm slightly into the 70s.
1040 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 A slowly approaching cold front, will bring a couple of rounds of showers and thunderstorms, one this morning, and another this evening.
1046 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 An upper level ridge of high pressure will allow for warm temperatures and minimal rain chances through most of the upcoming seven days. This is the result of subsidence under the mid level ridge that has been steadily working its way north from the Gulf Coast. Primary weather highlights this period are maximum temperatures a few degrees above normal, small rain chances, and a fairly comfortable air mass as dewpoints hold in the lower 70s compared to middle and upper.
Canadian surface cold front pushes into northern portions of the forecast area after 18Z with low- to mid level ceilings and some light rain showers.
Then we have spotty diurnal convection still on tap for this afternoon, mainly focused across the higher terrain. Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 74 93 73 / 20 10 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 72 93 71 / 20 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 91 73 93 71 / 20 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 68 92 67 / 20 10 10 10.
1040 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016 Cold front currently across southeast Kansas into northwest Oklahoma will begin to stall out this afternoon as it moves into the far northern reaches of northeast Oklahoma.
The thermal trough will continue to drive north winds in the coastal waters. Low pressure moves out over the waters Friday through the weekend with winds and seas lowering.
748 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 High pressure will remain southeast of the region today through tonight. A cold front will cross the region Friday.
836 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 High pressure to the north will keep a generally east flow over SOuth Florida through the TAF period. Currently the National Hurricane Center gives this tropical wave a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next two days and high chance over the next 5 days.
Satellite shows upper trough west of the four corners. Upper forcing ahead of the trough will allow for convection over the higher terrain by the afternoon and continued showers on the plains through the evening. Upper level trough over eastern Colorado will move east of the state this morning. Subsidence behind the trough is resulting in clearing over much of Colorado this morning. Westerly flow aloft will prevail through tonight behind the exiting trough over the Central Plains and the approaching trough currently over southern Idaho. Models in decent agreement that scattered thunderstorms will form over the higher terrain ahead of the trof and move eastward through the afternoon and evening hours. Lift associated with the trough is expected to produce scattered showers and few thunderstorms through the evening and overnight hours, so will keep the pops going through the night.
Temperatures will climb into the low 90s and dew points are back in the 70s. High pressure at the surface and aloft will keep good flying weather on going through the next 24 hours with only a slight chance for a thunderstorm at the terminals.
630 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016 It's looking a bit wet for the next several days across the Lower Missouri River Valley as the broader pattern across the Nation keeps the potential for thunderstorms persisting through the weekend in our section of the country. Big picture; water vapor imagery shows the Nation dominated by a bit of an amplified pattern with a trough extending from the Hudson Bay southwest across the Western United States and a ridge spinning over the Deep South, along the Gulf Coast.
547 AM MDT THU AUG 25 2016 A mid/upper trough axis stretched NE-SW from Hudson Bay Canada through North Dakota, Montana, Idaho and Oregon. Another trough extended N-S from eastern Colorado through southern New Mexico. A ridge was centered over the southeast CONUS. The short range model guidance consensus progs the mid/upper trough axis to the west to gradually shift east across the northern/central Rockies and plains during the next 24 to 36 hours. Cannot rule out a few strong thunderstorms producing hail up to one inch and strong/gusty winds across the high plains. Shower/thunderstorm coverage decreases markedly Friday night with passage of the trough and influx of drier/more stable air.
Temperatures will run slightly warmer than average today and are expected to return to around average on Friday and into the weekend. The trough will move into N CA this afternoon and settle over CA Friday. A mid level flow from the NW should keep much of Cedar fire smoke out of the valley advecting it E towards the high desert. Additional smoke may push into the valley Friday as wind flow aloft turns S to SE as the trough settles over the area. Isolated thunderstorms may be possible Friday afternoon over the high sierra as models show some instability and light winds along the Sierra Nevada.
The h5 trough extended from the lowest pressures over Manitoba southward toward Colorado and back toward Idaho. The latest runs on the hires models continue to support the highest pops through tonight near the Kansas border and more isolated showers toward I80. As the trailing trough deepens Friday, south flow increases and the h85 front lifts northward. Cooler temperatures with highs in the 70s.
709 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 Showers and thunderstorms are likely today as a cold front moves east across the area. Highs today will be in the upper 70s to middle 80s, with lows tonight in the lower to middle 60s. Upr level trof over the nrn plains will move east to the upr grtlks today and to Quebec tonight. Post-frontal high pressure should build into the area tonight providing fair wx after perhaps a few lingering showers/storms se early. Temps should just cool back to normal with lows in the l60s and highs in the l80s, warming slightly Sat as the ridge moves east and wk waa develops.
WX pattern similar to recent days as a strong high pres ridge over the Deep South/Mid Atlc maintains a deep and steady E/NE flow acrs central FL. 25" over south FL where a theta-e ridge is positioned.
Water vapor satellite loop shows a large amplitude mid/upper level ridge of high pressure near 150W, which will keep northerly flow aloft over the Pacific Northwest today.
A mid/upper trough axis stretched NE-SW from Hudson Bay Canada through North Dakota, Montana, Idaho and Oregon. Another trough extended N-S from eastern Colorado through southern New Mexico. A ridge was centered over the southeast CONUS. The short range model guidance consensus progs the mid/upper trough axis to the west to gradually shift east across the northern/central Rockies and plains during the next 24 to 36 hours. Cannot rule out a few strong thunderstorms producing hail up to one inch and strong/gusty winds across the high plains. Shower/thunderstorm coverage decreases markedly Friday night with passage of the trough and influx of drier/more stable air.
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours as a mid level ridge continues overhead and provides subsidence across deep south Texas. Water vapor imagery continues indicated a mid to upper level ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico with large scale subsidence over the area this morning.
Further south, highs will mainly be in the lower to middle 80s, but will reach the upper 80s to around 90 south of I-70 where sunshine will be prevalent throughout the day. Latest model guidance does not push the cold front as far south as previous runs, and already begins to lift it back north as a warm front on Friday.
High pressure stretches west into the southeastern United States, supported by a deep, mid-upper level anticyclone centered near the southern Appalachians. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure is nearing the Turks and Caicos Islands in the southeastern Bahamas. Additionally, convection over South Florida will move west-southwest this evening, potentially racing through the bay and gulf side waters towards the Lower Keys. An area of low pressure (99L) is approaching the Turks and Caicos Islands.
/issued 620 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016/ Terminals slow to deteriorate this morning, likely due to the high level cloudiness streaming across the Four-State region. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon-into early evening, courtesy an upper level high pressure streaming in low level moisture thus making way for sea-breeze convection. We look ready set go to see some decent coverage of rain again today with a tropical plume of moisture overhead rotating in under the Bermuda ridge. The GFS and Euro are similar on any path with Euro still much deeper and stronger on the low.
The low clouds will dissipate around mid-morning. /issued 344 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016/ (Today and Tonight) The upper level high over the southeastern CONUS will essentially remain in place, but the center of the high will shift slowly northeast across the Tennessee Valley. Expect less of a diurnal cumulus field today with a little drier air in the lower levels by this afternoon. With a slight climb in 850mb temperatures, highs today should be about a degree warmer than yesterday. A weak upper level low over the Texas coast will drift into South Texas as well, aiding lift across the area.
536 AM MDT THU AUG 25 2016 A mid/upper trough axis stretched NE-SW from Hudson Bay Canada through North Dakota, Montana, Idaho and Oregon. Another trough extended N-S from eastern Colorado through southern New Mexico. A ridge was centered over the southeast CONUS. The short range model guidance consensus progs the mid/upper trough axis to the west to gradually shift east across the northern/central Rockies and plains during the next 24 to 36 hours. Cannot rule out a few strong thunderstorms producing hail up to one inch and strong/gusty winds across the high plains. Shower/thunderstorm coverage decreases markedly Friday night with passage of the trough and influx of drier/more stable air.
There is increasing confidence in a dry Friday, as all models now push dying cold front southeast of the region by 12Z Sat. Main effect of fropa will be to lower humidity, as GEFS 8h temps remain above normal behind front, likely supporting max temps from the low 80s across the nw mtns, to around 90F in the Susq Valley. Center of subtropical ridge over the southeast conus is progged by all models to migrate northeast to the Mid Atlantic by this weekend.
Upper high is currently centered over MS/AL and will be the main feature of our forecast for the next few days.
The forecast period allows for more decent weather for flight across the region with a ridge positioned over the Southeastern United States. Some deeper moisture will be moving around the periphery of the ridge today and while there could be widely scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the higher terrain features, the probability appears to be too low for a mention in the terminal forecast.
Heat Indices already running a few degrees warmer than yesterday across the Delta. Water Vapor Satellite/WSR-88D Vad Wind Profiles center an upper level ridge over Middle Tennessee and Northern Alabama early this morning. Low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is advecting north on the back side of the ridge up into the Lower Mississippi Valley. This is resulting in a continuation humid air and surface dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s. Southerly winds on the back side of high pressure will continue to bring moist air up into the Mid South today.
645 AM MDT THU AUG 25 2016 Upper level trough over eastern Colorado will move east of the state this morning. Subsidence behind the trough is resulting in clearing over much of Colorado this morning. Westerly flow aloft will prevail through tonight behind the exiting trough over the Central Plains and the approaching trough currently over southern Idaho. Models in decent agreement that scattered thunderstorms will form over the higher terrain ahead of the trof and move eastward through the afternoon and evening hours. Lift associated with the trough is expected to produce scattered showers and few thunderstorms through the evening and overnight hours, so will keep the pops going through the night.
Temperatures will average near to a bit cooler than normal with typical summer-time seabreezes expected. Currently temperatures are running a few degrees cooler than 24 hours ago, with readings mainly in the 50s. High pressure aloft over the Eastern Pacific will weaken as an upper trough edges southwestward from the Northern Rockies. As a result, today will be warm like yesterday, but slightly cooler temperatures are expected beginning on Friday.
646 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016 An upper level low/trough will lift east-northeast from southern Manitoba and the Northern Plains to northern Lake Superior and Ontario today. Expects gusts to around 20 mph, and highs ranging from the lower 60s across northern central Minnesota to the lower 70s across northwest Wisconsin. High pressure will move into the Northland, providing and clearer and cooler night. Southwest flow will develop Friday, bringing warmer air back into the region.
1029 AM MDT TUE JUL 12 2016 08z surface analysis had low near CYDN with trough into northeast MT. Water vapour had upper low spinning over southeast SK. Today, surface and upper low move little, but they will spin a trough into far northern reaches of the CWA late. Temperatures will be 5-10F warmer than yesterday with downslope flow. Wednesday, slightly cooler temperatures expected.
Gilchrist Previous discussion: Stacked low pressure system over southern Saskatchewan with only a few showers along the Canadian border in the wrap around flow. The cool airmass remains in place today with the continued cyclonic flow behind the low pressure system. Gradient expected to ease tonight as the low pressure moves into Manitoba, allowing winds to drop below lake wind criteria in the evening.
Not getting any reports of this activity reaching the ground at the moment and not expecting much in terms of rainfall across the region today as an upper ridge continues to build eastward into the region.
Deep layer ridge continues draped across the area. slightly cooler along the coast.
Wrapped up 990mb low over southern Manitoba with a cold front now well to the east will result in westerly flow in the low levels.
1032 AM MDT TUE JUL 12 2016 Little change from day to day as broad high pressure remains to our south and pieces of energy bring some precipitation to the northern Rockies.
957 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016 Warmer and more humid weather this week with increasing showers and thunderstorms. Cold front crosses late in the week.
1119 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016 A weakening upper trough stretches from Southwest Kentucky into Mississippi this morning. /issued 310 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016/ Current water vapor satellite imagery depicts a weak upper level low over Northeastern Arkansas. This low is less organized than it once was as it continues to shift east. Closer to the surface, a broad area of high pressure centered over the Atlantic is resulting in southerly flow and warm overnight temperatures. Drier conditions will prevail as the day continues and the weak upper low continues to lift out of the area. There will be a lull in active weather on Wednesday as zonal flow aloft sets up and high pressure filters in at the surface.
/issued 317 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016/ (Today and Tonight) An upper ridge stretching from northern Mexico to East Texas will bring dry and hot weather to the forecast area through tonight. 15 (Wednesday through Tuesday) Large upper ridge across the southwest into west Texas will remain the dominant feature through the week and into the weekend. Will see afternoon/evening storms to the west of the area off and on in the higher terrain, which may bring a few clouds over the area.
721 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016 A weak upper trough remains over the lower Mississippi and western Tennessee Valleys. Another weak wave from this trough will move across the area later today.
An upper low continues to spin over southeastern SK this morning. An upper wave rotating around the low is pushing north across MN this morning. The main upper low will drift east across southern SK and into MB. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to in the vicinity of the low today. enhanced by a weak wave rotating eastward around the low across northern ND and into northern MN. Temps will be in the low to mid 70s north to low 80s south this afternoon.
This seems reasonable with upper trough axis running north to south down through our area.
Ridge axis should keep the conditions fairly dry today, but a surge of low-level moisture could generate a few showers/thunderstorms along the ridges this afternoon. Dewpoints are hanging around the low 60s currently, but RTMA data show mid to upper 60s dewpoints in central and southern WV will be creeping northward. The temperature profile this morning was several degrees warmer than 24 hours ago.
/issued 228 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016/ Models prog a slight expansion of the upper ridge northeastward with slight strengthening over the forecast area. The complication of the boundary suggests temperatures on the caprock will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday.
533 AM MDT TUE JUL 12 2016 08z surface analysis had low near CYDN with trough into northeast MT. Water vapour had upper low spinning over southeast SK. Today, surface and upper low move little, but they will spin a trough into far northern reaches of the CWA late. Temperatures will be 5-10F warmer than yesterday with downslope flow. Wednesday, slightly cooler temperatures expected.
for 12z Aviation discussion below The surface cold front that contributed to development of severe thunderstorms yesterday has not entirely exited the area as of yet, and could fuel a few thunderstorms near the southeastern border of the forecast area this afternoon. Temperatures, although cooler, will still top out around near normal values in the low to mid 80s, under mostly sunny skies and breezy westerly winds.
1007 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016 A warm front slowly lifts through the area today through Wednesday night.
Weak high pressure will build across Central and Southwest Montana today.
Surface wise, a weak Western Atlantic ridge extends across the northern half of the sunshine state, resulting in east to southeast winds of around 10 knots except slightly higher on the outer Florida Straits. Ample intense insolation within a light to gentle east to southeast wind will allow temperatures to climb into the lower 90s.
A large upper ridge over the sern FL coast will keep the chc of pcpn across much of the sern state to a minimum today. The remnants of a weak mid level trough was evident as per IR satellite imagery, extending eastward from west through east Tennessee. Have lowered pops into the lower chance/slight chance category across the forecast area today. The models are still indicating that the remaining influence of the mid level trough should be waning by this afternoon. The low level southwest flow will continue through Wednesday across the region with mainly afternoon widely scattered/low chance pops expected mainly along and east of Interstate 65 toward the higher terrain areas due to orographic lifting.
Freezing level is just above 15000 feet so even small hail will be hard to get to the surface.
A cold front is also expected to move across Southeast Oregon late this afternoon and Southwest Idaho this evening.
Have maintained the TEMPO for KDRT for the lower 2000 ft SCT stratus clouds deck to be a possibility through 15-16Z.
726 AM EDT Tue Jul 12 2016 High pressure over the eastern seaboard this morning will continue to dominate the North Country's weather through the first half of Wednesday.
1025 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016 A weak surface boundary over the northern Midlands of SC will shift a little farther north into NC today, while an upper ridge of high pressure to our south builds north into our region through Wednesday. The upper ridge will weaken some late week into the weekend, as a weak upper trough and surface boundary or two move into the region, along with some increase in moisture. Upper ridge centered to our SE over the Bahamas, with ridge axis extending NW towards SC, appears will build slightly into our region from the south today.
High pressure will persist through the end of the week. (Today and Tonight) Pretty quiet weather pattern today with high pressure continuing to build across the region.
Main threats will be locally heavy rainfall, given the high PWAT airmass. Longer-wave pattern continues to show ridging over the eastern CONUS, and so far that ridging continues to win the battle with a remnant MCV and pooled moisture along a decaying sfc boundary in the Tennessee Valley. Even with the low-level jet cranked up to 30 kt, the convection advertised by the hi-res models is still failing to materialize over western Kentucky, so forecast confidence actually continues to decrease. Dewpoints rising into the lower 70s will push afternoon heat indices near 100.
Early this morning an upper level trough was lifting northeast across the eastern plains into the upper midwest. A combination of lift from the departing H5 trough and convergence ahead of the front has lead to the development of scattered strong storms across northeast and north central KS. Highs Today will be slightly cooler with lower to mid 90s, though the dewpoints may rise to into the mid 70s along and south of the front across east central KS. On Wednesday another cold front will approach the forecast area from the north as a mid level trough tracks over southern Canada.
Temperatures will warm to slightly above normal away from the coast by the middle of the week as high pressure aloft builds into the region. Low pressure aloft may build back into the West Coast this upcoming weekend, supporting cooler conditions.
625 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016 Convection continues to develop slowly south along a weakening cold front early this morning as it pushes east across southern parts of the area at 07z. Boundary in the south basically washes out by evening with remaining convection shifting east across Missouri as weak mid level wave moves across the lower Missouri Valley. Focus for storm development shifts back north by Wednesday morning as next cold front approaches the northeast Nebraska border then tracks toward the southeast Nebraska border during the day. More thunderstorms are possible for the area with this boundary as it works south across the area during the day with support from an amplifying upper trough moving into the upper Midwest.
627 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016 An upper low continues to spin over southeastern SK this morning. An upper wave rotating around the low is pushing north across MN this morning. The main upper low will drift east across southern SK and into MB. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to in the vicinity of the low today. enhanced by a weak wave rotating eastward around the low across northern ND and into northern MN. Temps will be in the low to mid 70s north to low 80s south this afternoon.
Shower chances return as an upper trough approaches for the weekend. Have made a quick update to account for the showers over the Cascades having pushed east as the trough axis nears.
/issued 440 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016/ High pressure will continue to dominate through the weekend. Temperatures remain quite warm, mainly in the lower 80s, and low temperatures may again near record warm levels today.