Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
300 PM MST Sat Feb 10 2018 Cold and dry high pressure with north northwest flow aloft will be over the area tonight and Sunday with some lingering light snow in the far south tonight clearing on Sunday. Temperatures will be coldest in the north with a lee side trough beginning to develop with some warming central areas.
Gusty southwest winds and cooler temperatures will arrive as a cold front approaches Arizona today.
The cold front has moved in northern Llano, Burnet, and Williamson counties, and will continue to progress south ahead of early forecasts. The result should be scattered, light precipitation, but of course, concern about freezing/frozen precipitation.
243 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018 Temperatures this afternoon are around 30 degrees cooler than yesterday behind the strong front that moved through last night. Further to the southeast, freezing rain is possible, but have kept PoPs low.
Should get a renewed push of higher clouds through the southeast half of the area during the afternoon, but in general the albedo impacts of new snow with sunshine should hurt temperature potential quite a bit, but will likely reside on the warmer side of spitting distance of yesterday.
Also went a bit cooler for highs today. Radar mosaic and surface obs show that the patchy freezing drizzle mixed with some light snow was diminishing over east central IL, while a band of light snow north of Peoria will be diminishing too through midday. Temps will rise toward freezing as far north as I-70 while temps struggle to reach 20F nw of the IL river this afternoon. With temperatures well below freezing across most of the area, am expecting some light freezing rain this morning. meaning most of the precip will be in the form of light freezing rain.
The advisory farther south likely will see only light amounts of snow, but given the snow covered roads, and a chance of a bit of freezing drizzle there, I will prefer to ride the advisory out. This will be followed by clearing skies from northwest to southeast as high pressure builds into the cwa.
A deep low near the Hudson Bay, with slight enhancement from a huge blocking high riding off the British Columbia coastline through southern Alaska, has helped place most of the CONUS under the influence of a longwave trough. Within this trough, a narrow PV anomaly has been pushing west to east through Iowa overnight.
1012 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2018 Light freezing drizzle is still expected until noon in some areas east and south of Oklahoma City. Low stratus may erode sufficiently into areas just east of the TX/OK panhandle which would give selected spots a warmer late afternoon.
The showers are associated with a weak upper trough which will push south of the region by early afternoon. A weak upper trough and its associated cold front will slowly pass through the region this morning. The main impacts will be cooler temperatures, down to a few degrees above normal, and increased winds. The next trough will approach the region from the northwest Sunday, with increasing cloud coverage throughout the day.
Have received only a few reports of freezing drizzle causing traffic issues so far. Some light freezing drizzle may continue over far southeast Oklahoma into the early/mid evening hours, but better chances of precipitation should move east. Will continue with another chance of light snow across mainly northern Oklahoma as a trough moves closer to the area late tonight/overnight/early Sunday. Clouds should begin to decrease across western Oklahoma Sunday afternoon as the trough moves east of the area. Circulation around cold high pressure over the upper Midwest/Great Lakes early in the week, will keep temperatures on the cool side with relatively dry air.
Stationary front extends from Low pressure in the Southern Plains thru the Ohio Valley northeastward to New York early this morning. strong high pressure continues to build into the Northern Plains. temps will rebound into the teens across Eastern Upper Michigan and the Straits area and into the low to mid 20s across the rest of Northern Lower Michigan. The last in a series of strung out low pressure systems passing by well to our south will bring chances for light snow across much of northern lower Sunday as moisture appears to make a run farther north.
Heavy rain continues on Sunday, with good jet dynamics, and wave after wave of low pressure moving northeast along stalled frontal boundary, helping to enhance precipitation at times.
1201 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018 Quick update regarding Winter Weather Advisory/snow potential: Much more to come in the main afternoon discussion, but here are the basic changes made since 7AM: - The Advisory has been expanded one row of counties north to include the Highway 6 corridor counties, as there appears to be a greater potential for widespread 2-3" amounts in these counties (highest in southern parts).
An upper level ridge offshore with dry northerly flow at the surface will result in a sunny day today.
A southwest flow remains in place aloft this afternoon with troughing to our west and high pressure over the western Atlantic. At the surface, high pressure is centered to our northeast, with a low-level southeast flow in place, although this flow has turned a bit onshore at some coastal sites. with the exception of a strong U/L ridge over the central Atlantic which will extend west across the Florida peninsula. This will aid the downstream U/L ridge to retrograde becoming anchored over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida.
However, MVFR stratus returns overnight as another cold front moves into the area, w/fropa KMAF/KHOB ~ 08-09Z. /issued 407 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2018/ The upper pattern has a broad trough across the center of the country. This trough will sweep east and as it does another upper trough will move ashore the NW Coast.
Near surface temperatures should drop to just below freezing, introducing the potential for sleet/freezing rain or, with the prospect of losing upper- level moisture, freezing drizzle. Icing, if at all, should be light as temperatures will be just a degree or two below freezing and QPF remains very light. Model runs remain in decent agreement with a southeastward trend of higher qpf over the past 24-36hours, and the highest amounts well to our southeast. Cold front will finally slide accross the upper Ohio Valley Sunday night.
/issued 1012 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2018/ Light freezing drizzle is still expected until noon in some areas east and south of Oklahoma City. Low stratus may erode sufficiently into areas just east of the TX/OK panhandle which would give selected spots a warmer late afternoon.
In terms, of tonight think models are in good agreement in seeing another area of low pressure ride north and provide several more shots of rain across portions of eastern Kentucky. The coldest temperatures tonight will reside in the lower 40s north of I-64 tonight compared to lower 50s south of the Mountain Parkway. The cold front will be through eastern Kentucky Sunday evening, leaving a post-frontal upslope regime in place as surface ridging builds across the upper Midwest and approaches the Ohio Valley. Not keen on the idea of freezing rain in this pattern as temperatures aloft will likely not lag as far behind surface temperatures as model soundings suggest. Could still see some freezing of lingering moisture on elevated surfaces, but precipitation should go from rain to frozen hydrometeors.
229 PM MST Sat Feb 10 2018 Latest satellite imagery depicts westerly flow downstream of a long wave trough over the Central Rockies. Water vapor imagery showed higher moisture continuing to advect in over the Central Plains ahead of the trough. During the latter half of the afternoon am still expecting the upper level short wave trough following the snow to split, with one piece moving northeast of the area and the other to the southwest. Sunday southwest winds will bring warmer air into the forecast area. Due to the expected snowfall today, trended the high on the cooler side of most model data.
This system will move east/southeast through Sunday morning with the strongest portion of the short wave trough remaining south of the area. However, since this system is on the stronger side, it will push a weak long wave trough across the region with some embedded weaker short wave troughs. One of these embedded short wave trough will bring a round of weak to moderate pv advection in the 500 to 300 mb layer across the southern sections of the area late tonight. 00Z ECMWF show the potential for a couple of weak short wave troughs to dip far enough south in the zonal flow to possibly produce some light snow.
TFJ Arctic high pressure has brought bitter cold temperatures and mostly clear skies to Northeast Montana overnight. High pressure moves to the east today and a weak wave in NW flow aloft moves through the area. This will bring slightly warmer temperatures along with some clouds. Those cloud will keep Saturday Night warmer with lows near zero. A cold front is expected on Sunday.
1102 AM MST Sat Feb 10 2018 A cold front currently stretching from east to west across southern WY will drop south and through eastern UT and western CO today. Very little precipitation fell over the forecast area overnight, mainly orographic showers over the highest peaks of the northern CO mountains. The front will exit southern CO and the 500 mb troughline will pass through the area by about 09z tonight.
Widespread rain still moving across the area this afternoon, with the highest totals so far over the Cumberland Plateau into Southwest Virginia. Bringing in the abundant moisture is strong winds out of the southwest in the low/mid/upper levels of the atmosphere and forecast soundings are saturated all the way up to 300mb.
Cold air mass banked up against the eastern mountains this morning, with fog/patchy freezing drizzle and flurries across the I-25 corridor and and eastern mountains where cloud layer interacts with rising terrain. Farther north and west, already seeing light snow break out over north central and northwest Colorado as upper trough approaches, with leading edge of light snow reaching the Leadville area by sunrise. Upward motion then increases across the region today and tonight as trough moves through, with east-west oriented band of snow developing around midday along the I-70 corridor, then dropping south across srn Colorado this afternoon and evening. The upper trough axis will be swinging to the south- southeast across the state early Sun, with pcpn quickly coming to an end by late morning.
A mix of freezing drizzle and light snow is impacting areas south of a Macon to KC Metro line. Most of today should remain dry with the best chance for precipitation during the day being the chance for more of a patchy freezing drizzle across the southern CWA. The second wave is expected tonight as a positively tilted upper level trough moves from the eastern Rockies into the Upper Midwest and central Plains.
Any accumulation will be very light and mostly confined to elevated surfaces, including bridges and overpasses. Temps should warm above freezing Sunday morning, ending any ongoing travel impacts.
Steady stream of rain continues to overspread the area, although a slight weakening and veering of the low-level jet has allowed precipitation to taper off somewhat across northwest portions of Middle TN and focus much of the rain across areas further east.
229 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018 Cold front has pushed all the way down into TX with unseasonably cold air continuing to spill-in from the north. This has resulted in pockets of flurries and light freezing drizzle over far se KS, where it's still not cold enough to result in all snow. Models have remained very consistent in tracking this band generally north of I-70 this evening which is where the higher snow amounts should remain with 1-3 inches possible, with slightly higher amounts closer to the Nebraska border.
950 AM MST Sat Feb 10 2018 Current surface analysis shows high pressure centered over north central NE, with arctic boundary well south and west of the region.
1020 AM MST Sat Feb 10 2018 Current surface analysis shows high pressure centered over north central NE, with arctic boundary well south and west of the region.
Clockwise flow around this high will continue to bring breezy southeast flow to South Florida for the remainder of the day. High pressure aloft will provide strong subsidence and generate very warm conditions, at least for this time of year. Maximum temperatures are still on track to reach the low to mid 80s across the entire peninsula by this afternoon. /issued 335 AM EST Sat Feb 10 2018/ TODAY AND TONIGHT: Upper level ridge remains centered across the NW and Central Bahamas this morning with the low level ridge axis stretching across the Florida peninsula. Highs today will continue around 5 degrees above normal in the low-mid 80s, approaching a record high at Naples.
Today Through Sunday Night Well, continuing yesterday morning's theme, only minor changes were Anyway, the surface cold front is slowly making its way into northwest Arkansas while fighting to overcome the elevation of the Ozarks as it does so. As the surface boundary moves south, low pressure will ride along it from west to east. Some light precip or drizzle will remain in place across northern and far western Arkansas after temperatures drop below freezing. Light ice accumulation is still possible with this freezing rain/drizzle setup, but the focus will continue to be limited impacts to mainly elevated surfaces.
338 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018 Nearby high pressure to our south will provide the Northland another mostly clear and cold night. Some cloud cover will spread in from the northwest overnight with an approaching mid/upper level trough. This trough will be associated with a Clipper, which will be shifting from northern Manitoba this evening to far northern Ontario tomorrow. Its Arctic cold front will pass through the Northland Sunday, and brisk conditions are expected in the afternoon.
/issued 405 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017/ A slightly drier pattern continues for a few days as the region sits under the influence of high pressure aloft.
928 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 High pressure will remain in place over the northeast U.
Meanwhile the primary surface cold front is approaching the far northwest tip of Missouri where a rather sharp temperature gradient is separating mid/upper 80s over KS and MO from mid/lower 60s across Nebraska. Some locally heavy rainfall is again possible with this activity especially near the slowly retreating boundary, but the lack of a strong low-level jet should keep the overall heavy rain/flash flood threat on the low side.
19z Non-operational GOES 16 data picking up on two stronger upper lows phased within a longwave trough that digs down through the Four Corners Region. Attendant to the northern low is a decently strong cold front that drapes from north to S/SSW and phases with the southern low. Resultingly, Sunday afternoon looks much cooler as 850mb temps drop a solid 5C. With scattered cloud cover around, highs in the low to mid 70s seems a plausible forecast.
upper level high pressure will generally reside from the Gulf Coast north to the Great Lakes.
High temperatures will run 5-10 degrees below average today with this slightly cooler and dry airmass in place. As it approaches on Sunday morning, isolated convection may fire fairly early in the San Juans and southern Continental Divide regions, especially given sufficient lingering moisture in the lower half of forecast soundings. Convection will come to an end after sunset on Sunday as a weak 500mb trough axis passes east of the Divide.
The HRRR has really only been supported by the WRF-NMM and has been consistent run after run today supporting a cluster of thunderstorms initiating near the cold front-dryline intersection in northwest OK, and moving quickly northeast over the areas of Comanche Barber Pratt and Stafford counties between 4 and 7 pm. There is about 30kts of 0-6 km bulk shear, and and LHP value in the lowest bin (still thinking half dollar or slighlty larger size hail for max size), and possibility of locally severe wind gusts.
Attention then turns to thunderstorm chances late this afternoon and evening along and ahead of a southeastward advancing cold front. Post-frontal warm advection coupled with weak disturbances embedded within moist mid-level flow will support mostly cloudy and cooler conditions Sunday, along with hit-or-miss chances for showers/thunderstorms.
714 PM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017 A broad trough of low pressure over the West Coast will keep a cool air mass in place throughout the coming week.
So with clear skies, high pressure moves across western into central South Dakota overnight. Sunday will see good mixing conditions in a cold airmass with a west breeze, becoming southerly as the high continues southeast.
640 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017 High pressure continues over the area this evening.
This flow should begin to change this evening as upper ridging builds back westward across the gulf into Texas and Louisiana yielding northwest flow over Alabama. Temperatures overnight should be fairly similar to last night with the highest readings/dew points in the south and west.
1150 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017 Afternoon GOES Water Vapor imagery showing a vigorous mid-level trough rotating northeast from the Dakotas into northwest MN. This was driving a surface cold front eastward into the area. main focus will be on convection along/ahead of the cold front pushing through the area. Cooler air filtering into the area after midnight will drop temperatures into the 50s and lower 60s. Cooler/drier air filters into the area Sunday as high pressure builds in. The high will begin to move off to the east Sunday night as a weak mid-level trough ejects northeast out of the Central Plains.
followed by a brief clear period during the morning before diurnal cumulus forms with isolated showers in the ridges.
/issued 221 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017/ This morning an upper trough extends down from MT to CA with a ridge extending from FL to TX.
This feature, tied with a cold front and falling heights aloft, will be the primary focusing mechanism for active convection in the short term.
733 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 A deep layer ridge will bring continued pleasant and unseasonably warm conditions to the North Country during the next 5 to 7 days.
Mid level ridging should lead to the southeast winds being a couple mph less than the previous 24 hours. In addition, we expect any ongoing convection over the lower Trans Pecos region to remain west of Val Verde county.
921 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 Upper ridge dominating forecast area overnight with skies now mostly clear and temperatures now in the mid 60s to mid 70s with light winds.
/DL/ Broad ridging will continue across the area, which will be the contributing factor in our summer-like weather pattern. By mid to late week, an upper trough should move over the region which could increase our chances for shower/storm activity for some locations. However, a rather large ridge builds back in again for the end of the week into the weekend across much of the eastern half of the United States.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s inland and the low 70s for the coast.
712 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017 The approaching cold front has slowed its progression into the forecast area allowing plenty of sun paired with a southerly surface flow to get temps into the upper 80s and low 90s. Temps tonight will be warmer than last night by a few degrees due to the incresing cloud cover overnight and the south wind.
516 PM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017 Upper trough swinging across northern Wy into the northern plains now with energy clipping the north part of the CWA and setting off some showers. Min temps Sunday morning should get close to freezing over parts of the northern and western CWA so have opted to post a frost advy for those typically cool areas for later tonight into Sunday morning.
As of 19z Saturday afternoon, a H5 trough was positioned from the northern Rockies into the central High Plains. At the surface, a center of low pressure resided across the OK/TX panhandle region. A cold front extended northeastward from the low pressure through north central KS. A capping inversion near H8 has precluded thunderstorm development and for that matter a deep Cu field along the aforementioned cold front. At this point, sfc based convection appears unlikely through the afternoon and evening hours along the cold front. As for Sunday, the cold front will become stalled in southeast KS. North of the front, much cooler temperatures are in store with highs Sunday afternoon reaching the middle 70s.
Dewpoints are also remaining elevated this afternoon in the lower to middle 60s, resulting in some increased humdity. The trough of low pressure that has produced the clouds and precip will slide north/northeast across Northern Minnesota into Western Ontario. The wrinkle or challenge for strong development could be the path of the low pressure, which would place the U. by mid- morning Sun, ushering in slightly cooler and more seasonal airmass to the U. A cold front moving in from the west will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms into the west late this evening and into central Upper Michigan overnight. By Sunday morning, expect the winds to pick back up to around 20 to 30 knots as a cold front pushes east across the lake.
942 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 High pressure centered to the east will continue to extend into the Ohio Valley through tomorrow.
With no real upper trough evident overnight, convection may not wane much at all after midnight thanks to the lingering upper jet. SW flow aloft will veer a bit more W-SW on Sunday as an elongated ridge retrogrades from the Gulf to South TX.
735 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 High pressure centered to the east will continue to extend into the Ohio Valley through tomorrow.
1132 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017 The approaching cold front has slowed its progression into the forecast area allowing plenty of sun paired with a southerly surface flow to get temps into the upper 80s and low 90s. Temps tonight will be warmer than last night by a few degrees due to the incresing cloud cover overnight and the south wind.
As the main trough and associated jet streak pivot closer to the region later this afternoon and evening, could see some re-enhancement of showers and storms closer to the boundary across our far southeastern counties in northwest Iowa. With clearing skies, decreasing winds and a chilly airmass now in place, expecting temperatures to fall into the low 40s and perhaps even a few upper 30s out near the Missouri and James River valleys. Mid and long range forecast will be an active one, as a large closed upper level low wobbles over the Pacific northwest, into the northern Plains.
19z sfc analysis shows a moderately strong area of high pressure over eastern Kentucky this afternoon. Ridging will build through the region this weekend, though it is sort of dirty with bits of energy drifting through the higher height fields. Did make some changes to temperatures each night based on terrain anticipating a small to moderate ridge and valley split. Based on the latest model data and the current weather pattern, we should see slightly above normal temperatures with highs in the lower 80s each day and lows in the lower 60s each night.
Dry and quiet to end the weekend with high pressure building in and temperatures warming back up to around the 60 degree mark (possibly mid 60s down south).
At the surface, a cold front stretched from north central KS into the OK/TX panhandles and expect additional storms to develop along the boundary this afternoon. Upper low will continue moving east across the northern plains tonight and Sunday, driving the moisture plume and frontal boundary south into northeast OK and pars of northwest AR with a resultant increase in precip chances later this evening. Deepening upper level trough in the western U.
1009 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 A large ridge of high pressure will dominate our weather for much of the upcoming 7 days.
738 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 High pressure will remain in place over the northeast U.