Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Meanwhile, weak upper ridging moves east into the region through today and persists through Monday. At the surface, ridging expands over the southeast CONUS through tonight with high pressure over the Great Lakes region moving east-southeast into the Ohio River Valley during this time. By Monday afternoon, the surface ridging over our region begins to weaken and flow begins to transition to a very weak southerly flow.
Winds should remain breezy the rest of the morning due to a decent pressure gradient between high pressure to our west and a low pressure system to our east. As the low pressure center moves farther east today, winds will gradually decrease by this afternoon. The eastern trough will gradually give way to a quasi-zonal pattern across the region on Monday.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will bring a much nicer day to the quad state region.
Quick update to the forecast this morning to hold on to cloud cover for a few hours that is sticking in place on the north side of the Blue Ridge. On Monday, high pressure remains dominant over the region and will bring another beautiful day. RW Extended models show a trough moving through the southern Plains and Ohio Valley by the middle to end of the week. Discrepancies noted between models by mid week, however models agree on increasing Gulf moisture across the area ahead of the amplifying trough to our west.
403 AM MDT Sun May 30 2021 A cool & dreary Sunday for much of southeast Wyoming & the western Nebraska Panhandle w/ deep moist low-level upslope in place across the high plains. Could see a couple of inches of snow above 9000-9500 feet elevation with H7 temperatures falling to near freezing. A warming trend will commence by Tue as significant upper-level ridging builds across the western CONUS.
Otherwise, mostly sunny skies with light, mostly east to southeast winds and temperatures risinig slowly through the lower to mid 80s were noted across the Keys. Dewpoints were in the lower 70s. As the upper trough continues to approach from the northwest, changes were noted on this morning's Key West sounding. While the approach of the cooler trough aloft will likely increase instability, deep moisture will remain lacking through much of the day. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage later this evening and tonight, as high pressure building across the Mid Atlantic freshens east winds.
Trough over the Dakotas will shift east with strongest forcing remaining north in Canada. Still positive vorticity advection will be rotating over our CWA and steep mid level lapse rates should support redevelopment of showers and possible thunderstorms this afternoon/evening before the trough shifts east and dry/stable/subsidence air mass overspreads our CWA. There should be enough clearing, combined with westerly BL flow to support warmer temperatures in the 70s and based on bias corrections towards the 50th percentile of guidance upper 70s are possible this afternoon and likely Monday. Dry conditions and even warmer temperatures are possible Monday and warmer locations may reach 80F.
This is bringing renewed lift to central and eastern areas with drizzle redeveloping over the central and south central mountains after a few hour lull, while focusing highest POPs/rain chances over eastern and especially southeast parts of my area this morning, while the steadiest and heaviest rain remains east of the Lower Susq River Valley.
For today through Memorial Day, an upper level trof of low pressure is forecast to develop over the southwest states.
633 AM EDT Sun May 30 2021 Upper low finally departs today. High pressure will build from the northwest on Sunday and become centered across the area on Monday. Upper low still poised for a slow exit, and will do so with low level drying later this afternoon and evening. POPs effectively come to an end over the next few hours with this drying and high pressure building in with a very short period of upper level ridging. Temperatures continue a slow improvement today and Monday, but the increase in the low level temps at 850mb is modest each day.
Temperatures will begin to moderate later today with warmer highs expected, albeit still below normal, with surface winds becoming southeasterly and 850 mb winds becoming southerly. Low temperatures will also be warmer tonight with increasing cloud cover.
950 AM EDT Sun May 30 2021 A cold front will continue to push offshore today. High pressure will build behind the front early in the week then slide offshore mid to late week. Cold front has cleared the coast and will cont to slowly move further offshore today. High pressure takes control for the first half of the week.
Air temps this morning are very nice in the low to mid 50s in S AR and NE LA, with mid to upper 50s edging south of I-20 now in E TX. As the clouds further increase overnight we will be a little warmer, but still below average. The cirrus anvils will be growing thicker catching more sunshine, but E/SE winds will help make for a warmer day.
A highly amplified pattern exists across the East CONUS this morning, with a deep trough axis extending roughly SSW-NNE from the NE Gulf Coast into Southern Quebec. Northerly low-lvl flow along the western flank of the trough has brought seasonably cool temperatures to the region. Temperatures at 3 AM this morning were generally in the low/mid 50s across the area, with dew point temperatures in the mid/upper 40s. A long swath of stratus clouds has been moving across the area overnight and keeping temperatures slightly warmer than they otherwise might be. The eastern trough will gradually give way to a quasi-zonal pattern across the region on Monday.
558 AM EDT Sun May 30 2021 High pressure anchored near Lower Michigan will preserve a stable atmosphere with just a FEW afternoon cumulus clouds as light surface flow gradually veers southeast and high VFR cirrus cloud streams in aloft late tonight. Deep layer stability held firm within a gradually increasing upper height field and general low level ridging ensures another day of benign weather conditions today. The resident below average thermal profile will inch higher today under increasing thickness readings, but with the lack of meaningful warm air advection given weak gradient flow placing a ceiling on this warmer trend. Otherwise, similar environmental conditions in place Memorial Day, but with increasing depth to the south-southwest flow as the upper ridge axis eases eastward providing an uptick in the warm air advective process.
/issued 350 AM CDT Sun May 30 2021/ SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): 500mb ridge to build over the region today and Monday replacing the low pressure trough that brought the CWA another round of beneficial rainfall yesterday. Tonight and Memorial Day rain chances look to drop to 10 percent as subsidence increases and surface moisture becomes a bit more shallow as the 500mb ridge becomes more establish over South Texas. Maximum Temperatures for the rest of the holiday weekend should be near seasonal norms with upper 80s to mid 90s, but with dew points in the lower 70s under light to moderate southeast winds heat indices to approach 100 degrees.
507 AM PDT Sun May 30 2021 Our cooler than average Spring weather will persist today as onshore flow and a deep marine layer prevail west of the mountains. Gusty late day and evening westerly winds will continue through the passes and into the deserts one more day, even as the high deserts begin to warm. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO A healthy marine layer and onshore flow persisting this morning, and an upper level trough is slowly exiting to the east this morning. The temperatures today will be on the relatively cool side once again, although we'll start to see some warming move into the Mojave Desert today, firstly, as the upper level high pressure ridge begins to nose in across the north.
As of 08Z Sunday morning, a midlevel ridge axis continues to extend from the Great Lakes region through eastern KS. However, the stubborn mid and low-level ridge has been slower than originally depicted in its eastern movement and has slowed the return of WAA.
1010 AM EDT Sun May 30 2021 Expect below normal temperatures today and tonight due to a cold upper level low pressure system that was centered over the Mid- Atlantic region that will linger today, resulting in considerable cloudiness and isolated showers.
Clear skies cover interior NorCal early this morning except for a bit of thin cirrus spilling through the eastern Pacific ridge and some stratus along the western boundary of the Delta.
740 AM EDT Sun May 30 2021 A strong upper level trough will move through the middle Atlantic region today and will exit the area tonight.
Showers and storm coverage will decrease over land areas past midnight, but lingering S/W trough across the region may continue to develop scattered showers and isolated storms over the waters overnight.
618 AM EDT Sun May 30 2021 Impactful weather: Frost/freezing conditions this morning. Pattern synopsis and forecast: Upper troughing was over the eastern states and in central Canada down through the nrn Plains early this morning, while a narrow upper ridge western Quebec through the western Great Lakes and midwest. At the sfc, a large expanse of high pressure and loads of dry air (PWATs around 0. The upper troughing over the eastern states will shift northward through tonight, impacting the mid Atlantic into New England, while the Canadian and nrn Plains troughing squashes the ridging over nrn Michigan, and also pushes it east. High temperatures today will be in the upper half of the 60s to around 70F, cooler in coastal areas. Lows tonight will largely be in the low to mid 40s.
209 PM EDT Sun May 30 2021 Expect below normal temperatures today and tonight due to a cold upper level low pressure system that was centered over the Mid- Atlantic region that will linger today, resulting in considerable cloudiness and isolated showers.
A low pressure system currently over Virginia will continue to lift north and east. A pleasant end to the Memorial Day weekend and the start of a shortened work week as ridging across the Southeast CONUS begins to amplify.
Slightly warmer/more humid conditions are in the forecast tomorrow as the weak surface boundary washes out and elevated PWs begin to spread back across the CWA. Not going with any significant precip/activity tomorrow as the upper ridge holds on just a tiny bit longer.
302 PM EDT Sun May 30 2021 An upper level trough will slowly pass through the area early this evening before moving off to the east tonight. High pressure will return for Memorial Day before moving offshore during the middle and latter portions of the week. An upper-level trough axis will pivot across our region early this evening before becoming negatively tilted overnight to our northeast. The northerly flow around the low pressure system will become more northwesterly tonight as well with winds diminishing overnight. Cooler than average temperatures still linger. High pressure will build into the region Monday and Monday night. Plenty of sunshine and warmer temperatures are expected during the day and milder temperatures Monday night with a few clouds around.
/Issued 1013 AM EDT Sun May 30 2021/ Quick update to the forecast this morning to hold on to cloud cover for a few hours that is sticking in place on the north side of the Blue Ridge. On Monday, high pressure remains dominant over the region and will bring another beautiful day. RW Extended models show a trough moving through the southern Plains and Ohio Valley by the middle to end of the week. Discrepancies noted between models by mid week, however models agree on increasing Gulf moisture across the area ahead of the amplifying trough to our west.
Skies are clearing early this afternoon as mid-level ridging and subsidence continue to produce stable conditions across the region. Highs will range from the lower 70s north to lower 80s south, generally a few degrees warmer than yesterday in most spots due to rising heights with the building ridge. There will be more of a southerly component to lower-level winds tomorrow as the ridge axis shifts eastward which will bring temperatures more in line with seasonal averages with mostly sunny skies. Models in good agreement through midweek with moderating temperatures and an eventual moisture return as fairly flat ridge will lie just to our south. and next trough begins to move out of the Rockies. Trough sharpens a bit midweek.
243 PM EDT Sun May 30 2021 High pressure will continue to build into the region, then slide offshore mid to late week. Latest sfc analysis shows 1026mb high pressure centered over the Great Lakes, with cold front just off the SE coast. While aloft the upper low continues to spin over the Mid-Atlantic, grad shifting ENE and up the Mid-Atlantic coast overnight. High pressure takes control for the first half of the week.
Focus shifts to two areas of potential precip on Monday, although chances remain on the low end at best and most of the area stays dry.
Ketcham Ridging over the Rockies will lead to a warming trend for the end of the work week as southerly winds return to the plains. Some uncertainty on how the end of the week will play out when it comes to pops, as the GFS shows the Rockies ridge breaking down for the end of the week. While the ECMWF suggests that the ridge will break down as well, but shows a southern stream system moving north into the KS for the weekend.
(This evening through Monday) Convection forming on the High Plains this afternoon and evening will make a run east toward the forecast area this evening and affect the area overnight into tomorrow.
High pressure will be over the area with much lighter winds. Anomalous upper ridging currently builing in the West and its building dome of heat is expected to advect into the Northern Plains as the ridge builds eastward across the region.
249 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021 Main focus on the short term is the chance for afternoon thunderstorms, with the low possibility of seeing a funnel cloud or even a weak landspout. While that is not a lot of CAPE, vast majority of it is in the lowest 3 km, which could lead to enhanced stretching potential as thunderstorms start to initiate.
1208 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021 Warmer temperatures and light winds are expected today as highs reach around 70 degrees this afternoon.
Latest run of the HREF is showing that this trough will move across Missouri and Illinois tonight while a second trough will drop out of the northern Plains and move across the Upper Midwest on Monday. Highs tomorrow will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s given the warmer start tomorrow morning.
Warmer temperatures and increasing for rain will develop midweek and beyond. Large mid level trof centered over Western PA to continue migrating slowly east departing the region. As the low pulls east the low level flow over the are will back from northeast to northwest. Expect lows from the lower 40s northeast to the middle and upper 40s west. Temperatures will warm with Monday's highs in the lower and mid 70s.
At the surface there is low pressure over the Mid Atlantic with a cold front stretching southward just off the coast and through FL before turning westward across the Gulf of Mexico. A large center of high pressure is. The center of high pressure then shifts off to the east by the end of the short term. With expected clearing and high pressure centered directly over the area stayed closer to the lower percentile of NBM temperatures for the overnight before tweaking a bit cooler in our colder valley locations.
With dry air in place in the low levels, don't think we will see much more than virga and mid level clouds.
1058 AM CDT Sun May 30 2021 Warmer temperatures and light winds are expected today as highs reach around 70 degrees this afternoon.
123 PM MDT Sun May 30 2021 Strong upper level ridge has built over the West and will slowly migrate eastward through the upcoming week.
Tonight should be notably cooler as a result, with only a few high clouds possibly late. For Memorial Day, expect dry weather with only a few clouds as high pressure builds in, and temperatures much warmer than today. Precipitation chances increase mid/late week as slow moving upper trough intrudes. Dry air in place Monday night with high pressure to our southeast. Mostly clear with lows in the low to upper 50s.
The low humidity will continue with another cool night tonight.
Tonight temperatures will hover in the lower 40s with overcast skies. Cheyenne, Laramie, Kimball, and Sidney are the cities with the highest chances of receiving any precipitation.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 52 83 61 86 65 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 81 59 84 63 / 0 0 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 49 81 57 84 62 / 0 0 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 78 53 82 60 / 0 0 0 10 10.
301 PM EDT Sun May 30 2021 Wedge front that pushed through the area today has mostly modified this afternoon in the sun and is blending together with the airmass that was already in place behind the cold front. High pressure at the sfc will continue to shift east, bringing winds from the east and a slow return to the moisture for later in the week. /Issued 312 AM EDT Sun May 30 2021/ Extended models show a trough moving through the southern Plains and Ohio Valley by the middle to end of the week. Discrepancies noted between models by mid week, however models agree on increasing Gulf moisture across the area ahead of the amplifying trough to our west.
A weak cold front plus west to southwest winds helped to produce some morning showers in the Gulf.
For Monday, the showers should keep the temperatures a little on the cooler side, especially in north central Kansas. Central Nebraska should see a little bit of sunshine and they could be a little warmer.
316 PM EDT Sun May 30 2021 Look for abundant sunshine with high temperatures into the lower to middle 70s for Memorial Day.
Upper low finally departs today. High pressure will build from the northwest on Sunday and become centered across the area on Monday. Upper low still poised for a slow exit, and will do so with low level drying later this afternoon and evening. POPs effectively come to an end over the next few hours with this drying and high pressure building in with a very short period of upper level ridging. Temperatures continue a slow improvement today and Monday, but the increase in the low level temps at 850mb is modest each day.
153 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021 With high pressure dominating the atmospheric column, northeasterlies were drawing in a nice cool/dry airmass with dew points in the 30s and lower 40s this afternoon. As high pressure moves east with time, the low level anticyclonic flow around the high will veer winds a little more for the PAH FA, and a dew point recovery closer to 50F will be realized by tmrw at this time. Memorial Day temperatures will move closer to seasonal norms in the lower 80s, but likely still fall just shy, in the upper 70s, despite another day of good sunshine.
1248 PM EDT Sun May 30 2021 High pressure remains in full control of aviation conditions in SE MI today. Wind becomes light and variable while high pressure drifts slowly eastward tonight. Deep layer stability held firm within a gradually increasing upper height field and general low level ridging ensures another day of benign weather conditions today. The resident below average thermal profile will inch higher today under increasing thickness readings, but with the lack of meaningful warm air advection given weak gradient flow placing a ceiling on this warmer trend. Otherwise, similar environmental conditions in place Memorial Day, but with increasing depth to the south-southwest flow as the upper ridge axis eases eastward providing an uptick in the warm air advective process.
259 PM EDT Sun May 30 2021 Pretty quiet weather in the short term as high pressure at the surface and aloft controls the area. Memorial Day brings more dry conditions with warmer temps in the mid to upper 70s.
Today Upper trof has moved east of the forecast area this morning, with clear skies behind it.
(This evening through Monday) At this hour, an upper-level ridge was breaking down across much of west Texas while an upper trough was digging in over Baja California. An area of low pressure is expected to develop in the lee of the Rockies overnight and push southeastward toward Wichita Falls. While a marginal wind threat is possible in the morning with any bowing segments, the bigger threat will be heavy rain as it moves slowly southeastward through the morning with the cold front.
Light east to southeast winds were noted over the islands, with distinct ridging well northeast of the Bahamas and over the Midwest. An upper trough slowly progressing eastward through the eastern Gulf is expected to detach from its northern stream parent and cut off near the Florida Peninsula or northern Bahamas over the next 36 hours. The trough is accompanied by cool 500 mb temperatures in the minus-11 to minus-12 C range. Thus, the convection may initially be very outflow-boundary driven (first from the mainland), some mix of island convergence, then becoming more street-like as the lower tropospheric flow increases by Monday night.
At the surface, high pressure over the Ohio River Valley continues to ridge down to the Gulf Coast, while aloft, a broad ridge is beginning to flatten out across the southeastern US. High pressure at both the surface and aloft has provided a very pleasant, dry day across the CWA this afternoon, with afternoon highs topping out around 80 degrees. By mid-day tomorrow, high pressure should be well to our east with winds returning to a southeasterly flow overhead. Although tomorrow looks to remain dry, an increase in cloud cover, slightly warmer afternoon highs, and warming dewpoints can be expected, as onshore flow once again brings moisture back into the region. Southerly flow becomes well established by tomorrow night, bringing an end to the "cooler" and drier weather as we head towards the mid-week.
In the wake of the morning thunderstorms, skies will stay overcast through the day as moist easterly/southeasterly upslope flow is maintained across southwest KS owing to a weak surface cyclone over far southeast CO. A thermal boundary extending east from this low is draped across far southwest KS, roughly from Johnson City to Pratt, and this will bring about a dichotomy in afternoon high temperatures today. Skies will remain overcast during the day Monday, and combined with the weak cold advection north of the boundary, afternoon highs will be limited to the low to mid 60s.
This shows how unseasonably cold the airmass has been as lows this morning in the 30s most locations with a few below freezing. 12z DTX sounding show an incredible surface inversion with temperatures about 30 degrees warmer 400 ft above the ground. High pressure and upper level ridge overhead will slide east tonight. Mid level trough over the upper Midwest will weaken as it sweep across the northern Great Lakes Memorial Day.
Thermodynamics aren't impressive, but considering the progged instability and weak convergence/shear combined with weak forcing supplied by the upper trough, we could see isolated thunderstorm development, possibly even a broken line, into central MN.
234 PM MDT Sun May 30 2021 The short term continues to be dominated by a building ridge.
Upper flow aloft will become more southwesterly by Monday Night as an upper trough begins to dig in the Central and Southern Plains.
1135 AM MDT Sun May 30 2021 A cool & dreary Sunday for much of southeast Wyoming & the western Nebraska Panhandle w/ deep moist low-level upslope in place across the high plains. Could see a couple of inches of snow above 9000-9500 feet elevation with H7 temperatures falling to near freezing. A warming trend will commence by Tue as significant upper-level ridging builds across the western CONUS.