Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The latest global spectral model solutions continue to indicate that flat ridging will prevail from roughly West Texas through the Four Corners region.
1121 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016 A weak cold front will give showers and a few thunderstorms south and east of Pittsburgh into the evening. A second front Tuesday will bring scattered showers, followed by cooler and less humid conditions through the middle of the week. Showers and storms will wane quickly tonight in the ridges as the initiating boundary and most of the low-level moisture shift southeastward.
The highest PW values should remain along and south of I-40 today, while shallow sfc moisture has made it as far north as Page this morning. On Tuesday, high pressure aloft will become centered near the Four Corners.
Hot and dry high pressure scenario continues over the Great Basin region. Water vapor imagery shows an upper-level inverted trough over Baja California. the a southerly flow east of the trough will advect deeper mid-level moisture into southern Nevada during the day on Tuesday. Increased instability and intense daytime heating will likely fire off a few convective cells across the higher terrain of White Pine and northern Nye counties.
We start out with an upper high moving to the west and allowing northwest flow to dominate the pattern for the rest of the week. On the forward edge of the high pressure system is a cold front which will slowly travel south across the Mid-South today into Tuesday.
The cold front stalling and dissipating south of the waters will allow for one day of onshore NE winds at 10-15 knots and seas 2-4 ft. Then as a ridge settles south of the waters expect S to SW flow from Tuesday through the remainder of the week generally at 15 knots or less with seas of 2-4 ft continuing with no headlines expected.
Water Vapor imagery shows a trough/low pressure center over Ontario with an impulse moving into North Dakota. This impulse will merge into the base of the trough and result in the trough digging southward across the Great Lakes region. Temperatures today will generally be a couple degrees cooler than yesterday. However, due to dew points still in the low 70s, heat indices could rise to or just above 100 degrees in a few locations this afternoon.
717 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016 Aviation A cold front will track southward through the region today and tonight. A cooler airmass will then filter in from central Canada. As for rainfall the cold frontal passage is expected to be dry for most locations. The low level thermal trough arrives for Tuesday evening.
1210 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016 A cold front will be nearing northwest Ohio this evening and will cross the area tonight.
/issued 410 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016/ (Today and Tonight) A weak upper low over our southwestern counties early this morning will sag to the south and will be over the eastern boundary of the Big Bend region by mid-afternoon. An upper ridge will build southeastward over the forecast from its parent upper high centered over the Four Corners area through the remainder of the day. Afternoon highs today will be in the low to mid 90s as clouds decrease. Morning lows tomorrow will be mostly in the lower 70s.
1108 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016 Update/Marine A cold front will track southward through the region today and tonight. A cooler airmass will then filter in from central Canada. As for rainfall the cold frontal passage is expected to be dry for most locations. The low level thermal trough arrives for Tuesday evening.
1148 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016 Gradually weakening influence of the upper ridge continues over the region late this morning, and this trend should lend itself to more diurnal convection this afternoon and on through Tuesday with a weak frontal boundary advancing south into the area.
This activity was associated with a mid/upper level low that has been lingering in the region (to our south) the past few days. The 500 mb low is progged to open to an inverted trough and translate slowly westward through Far West Texas over the next 24 hours as an upper high amplifies over the Four Corners. Rain chances will decrease this evening as the lower atmosphere stabilizes and the weakening upper level disturbance shifts further off to the southwest. However, additional convection from eastern Colorado into central Oklahoma (associated with a backdooring cold front and perturbed northwest flow aloft) could edge toward our northeastern zones late tonight.
/issued 322 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016/ Sub tropical ridge stretches from the Pacific to the Atlantic this morning and is centered over the 4 corners region. Upper low over the region that brought heavy rain to some parts of the area yesterday will continue to slowly drift west today. An east coast trough is expected to increase over the Eastern US but the ridge will remain entrenched over the west. Temperatures should be warmer today and slowly increase each day rising to the upper 90s by late in the week. Believe the upper low centered over Permian Basin as of 08z. Have the chance for additional rain today mainly over/near the higher elevations.
Meanwhile, upper ridging stretches from the southwest CONUS into the southern Rockies. At the surface, a cold front extends from the western Great Lakes, through MN and across southern SD Areas of fog quickly developed in Saline County around 6 AM where visibilities have been as low as 1/2 mile. Higher chances for storms today will be over western Nebraska/northeast CO/NW KS where the western edge of a cold front will combine with good upslope processes. Therefore, will carry the highest pops tonight generally west of I-135.
An upper low over west Texas and deep moisture (PWAT ~ 2" at DRT) are responsible for the continued rainfall. The upper low is forecast to move westward through the day. TUTT low centered over the lower Pecos Valley has generated heavy rainfall over northern Val Verde County over the last few hours with radar estimates showing up to 6. The low is forecast to slowly weaken today as it drifts to the southwest and then dissipate over the Big Bend later tonight into early Tuesday. Subtropical Ridge centers over the Four Corners and the Arklatex regions bridge together today with subsidence taking hold over most of South Central Texas.
1054 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible into early afternoon as a weak cold front pushes south through the region.
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR LATE-DAY THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TUESDAY. IT ALSO INDICATES THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING SW MONSOON IS SPREADING WESTWARD AND IS NOW OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE HOT WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE MOST OF THE WEEK, THOUGH SOME MODERATION WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR LATE-DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA BEGINNING TUESDAY.
A weak upper trough will move through the area today.
1215 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016 High pressure over the area will gradually move offshore today.
Overnight, thunderstorms developing over the high plains of Nebraska will move southward across Kansas approaching north and northwestern Oklahoma.
The first cdfnt or prefrontal trof extends across KS/MO and into the Great Lakes. Since freezing/wet bulb zero levels are arnd 14000 ft, hail does not look that good.
Moisture has increased in the upper and lower levels resulting in a precipitable water value above 2 inches as the trough of low pressure begins to drop into our area causing the ridge of high pressure to retrograde to the west. Lapse rates are weak and shear values are low with a freezing level above 15000 feet. It looks like we will have one more day of warmer temperatures today before the high pressure starts to give way to a frontal boundary that will push southward over the southern United States by Tuesday.
1040 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016 Early visible satellite photographs show skies are mostly cloudy in the Lower and Middle Keys and partly cloudy in the Upper Keys. Meanwhile, local radars are detecting a shrinking area of light rain and sprinkles over the Lower Keys and the adjacent nearshore waters.
Upper ridge over the northern Rockies will help to nudge this system east today. TFJ Synoptic setup: A large trough runs northern from the eastern half of the CONUS into a cooler arctic airmass over the the Hudson Bay. Hot high pressure sits over the the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West with a ridge jutting north into the western half of Canada. a large closed low resides over the Gulf of Alaska. Today through Tuesday night: flow pattern will remain the same with the ridge to the west gaining influence and raising temperatures slowly.
A much cooler Canadian air mass found on the back side of an upper lever low currently seen in WV imagery approaching James bay Ontario will push into the northland today. Overnight lows will generally be the 40s, with warmer values near lake superior.
648 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016 An area of showers associated with an upper level low over southeast Saskatchewan has been tracking slowly southeast this morning.
Upper air maps this morning placed upper high over southern Utah with easterly flow over the area.
Today through Tuesday night Intensity of the slow moving convection continues to wane at this time as the low levels continue to destabilize. As a result of these increased rain chances and cloud cover, temperatures will actually be cooler than what has been seen of late, especially across the north. The well advertised cold front will be located along the Missouri border by Tuesday morning and forecast to move through the state during the day with a secondary boundary on its heels. Temperatures should continue in the mid 80s to mid 90s on Tuesday with cooler and drier conditions on their way in the wake of the second boundary.
730 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016 Break down of the upper ridge continues with northwest upper flow already beginning to evolve over the region. Should see more widespread convection developing today over the forecast area as the low-level flow transitions to southwesterly replacing the more stable easterly flow. H5 trough over the eastern U.
The upper ridge shifts further westward and an upper trough swings into the Great Lakes region keeping/leaving weak flow aloft over the state while a few weak to moderate vort maxes continue to periodically wrap overhead.
1040 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016 A cold front moves through the area today kicking off heavy rain showers. A reinforcing cold front moves through Tuesday. Cooler and drier remainder of week. Trailing cold front will move through the region.
High pressure ridging will begin to briefly build across the forecast area today then get flattened somewhat as a disturbance moves over the area Tuesday. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies will prevail today along with slightly warmer temperatures in the lower to middle 80s.
1103 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016 A cold front will move slowly across the area today and Tuesday. High pressure will bring a period of drier weather for mid week. This is pretty typical of the first front coming through a ridge.
Overall, this should act to limit convective coverage compared to yesterday with the highest PoPs along the Florida sea breeze this afternoon. A decaying frontal boundary extends from the offshore low and wraps around the high pressure across southwest Georgia and up to the southern Appalachians. As the upper level low supporting this system sags southward over the Atlantic ocean, the front too will gradually sag southward as it decays, bringing much drier air to our southwest Georgia counties and suppressing convection there. Temperatures will likely be slightly cooler than the past few days, though they will still be quite warm, peaking in the mid 90s.
Scattered to widespread -TSRA will develop by the early afternoon as a cold front moves into the region after 18Z.
A series of cold fronts will keep in the risk for showers and storms through Tuesday evening. Cooler temperatures are expected by the middle of the week. Its very possible that there could be a redevelopment of convection along the front later this morning, particularly over the southern half of the area, as it will be running into more unstable air in the lower levels, which advected in overnight. Showers and storms will wane quickly Monday night in the ridges as the initiating boundary and most of the low-level moisture shift southeastward.
A cluster of showers and storms has developed near the Ohio/Breckinridge/Hancock county confluence over west central KY. Conditions were quite muggy with dewpoints in the low 70s. The weak surface convergence associated with the front along with weak height falls on the periphery of the upper level trough will provide forcing for ascent for storm development.
637 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016 Closed low over the Gulf of Alaska with sharpening ridge over the western CONUS as desert southwest high builds. Upper trough extending into the Great Lakes from low over northeast Canada. Highs today in the low to mid 80s Precipitation chances continue through the night mainly south. Periods of thunderstorms are possible with northwest flow aloft and several wave or trough passages. Blended slightly toward MAV/MEX guidance as it's the warmer solution. Despite continual precipitation chances and cloud cover, any sunshine combined with H85 temps of 18-20C will allow for sfc temps to reach the lower/mid 80s. Given the possible cluster/linear convective mode and the influence of the low level jet, which the NAM and GFS show H85 speeds up to 40kts, damaging winds will be just as large a threat.
1224 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016 Latest surface analysis show a frontal trough sagging along the KY and TN border with an upper disturbance firing convection along the trough axis. but the approaching trough and frontal boundary will just help keep convection going well into the evening and possibly overnight for at least parts of north GA. warranting the higher pops there. /Issued 730 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016/ Break down of the upper ridge continues with northwest upper flow already beginning to evolve over the region. Should see more widespread convection developing today over the forecast area as the low-level flow transitions to southwesterly replacing the more stable easterly flow. H5 trough over the eastern U.
1011 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016 Clouds are still expected to move in from the north late this morning into the afternoon as a cooler airmass pushes in behind a departing trough. Temperatures are already approaching forecast highs, but should level out as the cooler temps aloft begin to arrive and clouds eventually slide in. Clouds will move through this evening and tonight (possibly MVFR at times) with a shower or two in the east as a trough swings through. Should see clearing skies later tonight into Tuesday morning as high pressure builds in. Northwest winds will usher in a reinforcing shot of cooler air, beginning mainly in the afternoon.
1006 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016 A cold front will approach from the west this morning and progress across Central NC this afternoon.
/issued 353 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): Summertime doldrums continue today with the dissipating upper low to the northwest and Gulf moisture trapped near the sfc areawide.
936 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016 High pressure over the area will gradually move offshore today.
TUTT low centered over the lower Pecos Valley has generated heavy rainfall over northern Val Verde County over the last few hours with radar estimates showing up to 6. The low is forecast to slowly weaken today as it drifts to the southwest and then dissipate over the Big Bend later tonight into early Tuesday. Subtropical Ridge centers over the Four Corners and the Arklatex regions bridge together today with subsidence taking hold over most of South Central Texas.
1247 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016 A hot, dry, and mainly sunny afternoon can be expected before a secondary cold front swings through tonight bringing cooler air in for Tuesday. A much cooler airmass on Tuesday will only allow afternoon temperatures to reach the 70s. A strong cold front for late June will move across the region tonight. Much cooler and drier air move across the area tonight with lows dropping to around 60 degrees. Much cooler air will be spreading over the area Tuesday. Highs Tuesday will be 15 to 20 degrees cooler than today. A series of short wave trofs will move southeast out of Canada this week and amplify the long wave trof over the eastern CONUS.
935 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016 Sending a forecast update this morning to increase PoPs areawide as the upper low and daytime heating continue to generate widespread showers and thunderstorms.
as several prefrontal trough axis are evident over the southeast this morning. These are all south of a stronger cold front, which is moving southeast into southern Iowa and eastern Michigan. The second trough axis extends from southern Missouri east into Kentucky. Mesoscale models forecast this second trough axis and convection along it to continue to push south through the day. Based on current temperatures raised highs a tad in northwestern Alabama into the lower 90s. This combined with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s could allow heat index values to climb to between 100 and 103 degrees there.
834 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016 A cold front will move slowly across the area today and Tuesday. High pressure will bring a period of drier weather for mid week. While the cold front is not accompanied by much of a temperature change, it is being accompanied by a narrow ribbon of anomalous PWAT over 2 inches, or some 1-3 std dev above normal. Models show the cold front slowing to a crawl as it moves over central Pa tonight and Tuesday. This will be near normal over the SE, but several degrees cooler than normal over the NW.
854 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016 A cold front will be nearing northwest Ohio this evening and will cross the area tonight.
Hot and dry high pressure scenario continues over the Great Basin region. Water vapor imagery shows an upper- level inverted trough over Baja California. a southerly flow east of the trough will advect deeper mid-level moisture into southern Nevada during the day on Tuesday. Increased instability and intense daytime heating will likely fire off a few convective cells across the higher terrain of White Pine and northern Nye counties.
1020 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016 A cold front will move slowly across the area today and Tuesday. High pressure will bring a period of drier weather for mid week. This is pretty typical of the first front coming through a ridge.
Upper low currently over northern Arizona will wobble slowly to northern New Mexico by Saturday afternoon. Vorticity lobe rotating around the main upper low will provide synoptic scale lift for precipitation, which will overspread the area from southwest to northeast tonight. Saturday night: Upper low will continue to transition eastward with rain/snow activity ending west to east with best chances still in the evening period.
206 AM MDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Upper low continues to spin over the Four Corners region, pushing clouds and precip into southern SD. With high pressure at the surface, winds are light and variable. Precip will end this morning as upper low begins to shift eastward and drier air moves into the region.
232 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Water vapor satellite this morning shows and upper level low over New Mexico and Arizona.
358 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017 High pressure will build over the CWFA through the short term period. Winds will remain out of the NW today, but switch over to the NE overnight as high pressure shifts eastward.
Slightly cooler and drier air now moving into the area behind cold front. Winds will be lighter today as weak high pressure builds in and pressure gradient relaxes.
Cirrus will begin to return areawide by late Saturday morning ahead of the deep upper trough out west along with some CU around 4Kft during the afternoon hours.
The effects of the high were noticeable across the Upper Mississippi Valley where the low-level stratus have cleared out/pushed southward. Sfc temps in E Iowa/NW Illinois were in the lower to middle 30s, and the only clouds were mid/upper level cirrus streaming from west to east through the region.
350 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Low pressure off the New Jersey coast early this morning will pass south of Nova Scotia this evening, and continue east tonight.
349 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017 The main upper level low pressure system across eastern Arizona continues to meander to the east and be the main focus of the near/short term forecast. In- conjunction, a surface front that has cleared the Panhandles is now ushering in some much cooler air with a northeasterly flow as seen by the latest observations. With the exception of the far northwestern Panhandle where temperatures near freezing may have precipitation as a rain/snow mix for parts of the early morning, rain and some isolated thunderstorms will continue through the day on Saturday.
Proton Previous Discussion: Weak upper troughing moves out tonight with weak upper ridging moves in Saturday before flow becomes zonal. Pressure gradient tightens up as low pressure over southern Alberta moves into Sask and should help move/disperse any fog Saturday morning. Sunshine will help push temperatures into the low-mid 60s.
349 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017 The light rain associated with a departing cold frontal boundary has ended across the region this morning. Increasing southerly winds tonight as the high moves east should not favor fog formation assuming the inversion has been washed out which the models show.
414 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Short wave ridging over the forecast area this morning, which is helping to keep the lull in the precipitation going through at least most of the day today. At the surface a ridge of high pressure is dominating the area, bringing steady northeast winds and cool air.
402 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Warmer temps return today with the sfc pattern responding to the approaching storm system currently over the southern Rockies. Eastern Oklahoma will have a higher chance of precip tonight as the initial round of convection lifts northeastward as the closed upper low separates into an elongated open wave.
For tonight, the upper low will continue to pull slowly away from the region with showers pushing out of the eastern sections of the forecast area. Lows look to drop into the lower 40s in many areas. For Saturday and Saturday Night, high pressure will continue to nose in from the north/northwest. Skies should continue to scour out Saturday night with lows dipping into the upper 30s to the lower 40s.
420 AM MDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Upper low continues to spin over the Four Corners region, pushing clouds and precip into southern SD. With high pressure at the surface, winds are light and variable. Precip will end this morning as upper low begins to shift eastward and drier air moves into the region.
/Issued 1025 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017/ Forecast on track for this near term as high pressure continues to build in and mostly clear skies prevail aside from far north GA with lingering stratocu. this is not an April Fools joke! It will be beautiful with light west winds and temperatures rebounding into the mid 60s across the higher elevations to around 80 across central GA.
148 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017 High pressure building into the area tonight will prevail through the weekend.
The partial sunshine in the north should help warm temperatures into the lower 60s. Southern areas will still be mild, but slightly cooler in the mid-upper 50s.
expect skies becoming mostly fair with mild seasonal temperatures today as high pressure and subsidence prevail.
Surface winds over the CWA will become more easterly through the period as high pressure shifts east of the region. Meanwhile aloft, a ridge axis will likewise shift east through the region. Tonight, a digging and deepening storm system moving into the Southern Plains, will result in increasing southerly flow aloft across the Lower Mississippi River Valley.