Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A BLEND OF THE 4 GUIDANCE DATA SET PLUS BIAS CORRECTION SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TODAY. THE GFS20 CLOCKS THE COLD FRONT MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH. THIS WOULD BE THE MAX WE WOULD EXPECT ASSUMING A MIXED LAYER FORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE GFS SOUNDINGS FOR NORTH PLATTE SHOW A MIXED LAYER EXTENDING TO 550MB AT 03Z JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH COLLAPSES TO 780MB BEHIND THE FRONT.
726 AM EST THU FEB 18 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL BUILD IN FOR TODAY. BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES AVERAGING SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WITH RIDGING ALOFT. THOUGH MAY BE A COUPLE DEG COOLER AS A RESULT OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
FIRST ABOVE 15KFT AND THEN LOWER TO 6-8 KFT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND A WARM FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY EXITS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. WITH THE POTENTIAL TO REACH FREEZING MARK BEFORE WARM ADVECTION MID/HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN UP. WITH STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES ON HOW ACTIVE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. AND BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET (70 KNOTS) AND SUPPORT FROM HIRES-ARW.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE WARM AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS ARIZONA. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA LATER TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. OVER THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO RETURN OVER THE WESTERN STATES PRODUCING DRY AND WARM WEATHER ONCE AGAIN.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS SHIFTS EAST. IN THE LOW LEVELS A MAXIMIZING AROUND NOON TOMORROW.
A LARGE BROAD UPPER RIDGE CENTERED SOUTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL PRODUCE HEIGHT RISES TODAY AND FRIDAY.
SO THE MORNING UPDATE WILL REMOVE THE WORDING OF FREEZING FOG FROM THE ZFP. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED TO OUR EAST WITH RETURN FLOW NOW PICKING UP. THE DAY BEGINS WITH IFR CONDITIONS WEST OF THE PLATEAU, WITH LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY DENSE FREEZING FOG.
Moderate to heavy snow over the Sierra Cascade range this morning as cold frontal boundary moves through. Expect scattered showers to continue through the day across the forecast area as the upper trough axis now just off the coast, swings inland. Conditions become a bit more stable this afternoon as the upper trough shifts east of the state and high pressure begins to build slightly over the west coast. Upper support has diminished as upper trough pushes in so winds have decreased significantly. Cooler airmasss over the region will bring cooler temperatures today. Another Pacific storm system is forecast to move through Norcal on Friday but this system will be shifted northward by a flat west coast ridge and the far southern CWA might not even see any precipitation.
THE MOD TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IS DUE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS W TX AND ALONG THE ROCKIES. THE WARM/DRY CONDITONS ARE DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING E ACROSS TX.
A LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST. AN UPPER RIDGE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RESULTING IN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND RESULTING CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD TODAY.
A DEEPENING SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN CO AND ERN NM COMBINED WITH A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY WILL RESULT IN DEEP MIXING OF THE ATMOSPHERE SUCH THAT RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS COLD FRONT MAY END UP BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES BY LATE FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS BUT CONTINUED DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS MORNING BEFORE LIFTING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS EVENING.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 58 40 63 48 / 0 0 0 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 51 35 61 46 / 0 0 10 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 51 36 62 45 / 0 0 10 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 46 30 58 38 / 0 0 0 20.
Most of the temperature grid looked on track, however, some of the models aren't mixing out the eastern zones, which may explain the lower values. A cold front will move across the region with much cooler 850-hPa temperatures in its wake.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL PROVIDE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-16 KNOTS THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGHER SPEEDS AND GUSTS OVER EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND IMMEDIATE SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. /ISSUED 254 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016/ UPPER TROF THAT HAS LINGERED OVER THE ERN CONUS FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS FINALLY MOVED OFFSHORE. UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY. RIDGE IS FCST TO FLATTEN FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION BUT STALL IN THE ABSENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL PUSH. AS THE TROF LIFTS INTO ERN CANADA.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE COOLER. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS UNDER A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SOCAL COAST IS WEAKENING THIS MORNING. AND THERE WILL STILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 50 KNOTS WITH MOUNTAIN ROTORS SURFACING IN THE HIGH DESERT. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM FOR THE HIGH DESERTS AND THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST.
1030 AM EST THU FEB 18 2016 CURRENTLY - A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINA COAST.
604 AM EST THU FEB 18 2016 DRY AND MILD HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
Very mild conditions are ongoing across the region early this morning with temperatures still in the low 40s to low 50s which is much closer to normal highs than lows for this time of year. Upper level ridge continues to nudge eastward towards the region and starting to see pressure gradient tighten across the Plains just to our west. RH values have not recovered much yet tonight across the western CWA and we are expecting humidity to drop into the lower to middle 30 percent range during the afternoon. Plenty of sunshine is expected today and with the strong low level warm advection and upper ridge moving into the area, will likely see afternoon highs from the mid 60s east to mid 70s west.
513 AM EST THU FEB 18 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TODAY. BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES AVERAGING SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
511 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016 A strengthening storm over the Pacific Northwest will move further onshore today, which will continue to push a mid-level ridge over the Central Plains. The main concern for today and Friday is fire weather danger as a very strong low-level jet develops underneath the ridge from central Texas spreading northeast into the forecast area this morning. A cold front will sweep through the area beginning Friday morning.
UPPER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE LATE WEEK WEATHER PATTERN.
High pressure is centered over the Northeast today.
Temperatures today will be unseasonably warm with afternoon highs mostly in the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows will mostly be in the lower 50s, with upper 50s expected over the Big Country.
The strong southerly flow will help to continue the recent warming trend with high temperatures this afternoon reaching well above the seasonal average with highs in the low to upper 70s forecast. however with the abundant dry fuels and the strong winds/warmer temperatures.
A PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKS OFF OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND.
450 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016 A LARGE BROAD UPPER RIDGE CENTERED SOUTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL PRODUCE HEIGHT RISES TODAY AND FRIDAY.
A FAST MOVING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
924 AM EST THU FEB 18 2016 DRY AND MILD HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
1017 AM EST THU FEB 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES AVERAGING SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
630 AM EST THU FEB 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
932 AM EST THU FEB 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
638 AM EST THU FEB 18 2016 DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE MOVING OUT TO SEA TODAY. ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN FRIDAY ALLOWING A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
734 AM EST THU FEB 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMP TRENDS ARE NEAR/JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. FREEZING FOG DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR HINDRANCE AT THIS POINT. THE PROB FOR SOME BRIEF/PATCHY FREEZING FOG MAY STILL LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST 6 AM OR SO. AS HIGH PRESSURE LAYERED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC/OH VALLEY STATES CONTINUES TO DRIFT EWD. WEAK UPPER RIDGING SHOULD ALSO TRANSLATE EWD OVER THE SE REGION LATER TODAY AND INTO FRI.
913 AM EST THU FEB 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE LATEST PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS WILL HELP TO REDUCE RUN OFF INTO AREA RIVERS. THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATEST SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INLAND OVER THE PAC NW. IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. EVEN AFTER TODAY/S COLD FRONT.
HAVE MAINLY MID LEVEL CEILINGS IN THIS AREA BUT HAVE HAD A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF MIXED PCPN DESPITE THE HIGHER CEILINGS. OTHERWISE WILL BE STARTING OUT MILD HOWEVER WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FA AND CLOUDS A FACTOR AGAIN TODAY. AM EXPECTING ONLY A MODEST RECOVERY BUT STILL SHOULD GET ABOVE FREEZING WITH LACK OF SNOW COVER. LACK OF DEEPER LAYERED RH WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT AS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. CONFIDENCE ON PCPN POTENTIAL FRIDAY CONTINUES ON THE LOW SIDE SO DID NOT INCREASE POPS. ANY PCPN ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LIQUID.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. BENEATH HEIGHT RISES ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LIFTING AWAY OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST. AT THE BASE OF A STRONG MID- UPPER LOW FORECAST TO SHEAR QUICKLY EASTWARD FROM OFFSHORE THE PAC NW COAST THIS MORNING TO EASTERN CANADA BY SAT MORNING. WARMER AND DRY THIS WEEKEND.
1036 AM EST THU FEB 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
521 AM EST THU FEB 18 2016 DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD FOCUS NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
633 AM EST THU FEB 18 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL BUILD IN FOR TODAY. BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES AVERAGING SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
/issued 312 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016/ An upper level ridge will push east of the area today and be replaced by a west to southwest flow aloft regime through the weekend.
DRY AND STABLE 500 MB RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF TX THROUGHOUT TODAY AND FRI WHICH WILL MAINTAIN NEAR ZERO POPS AND TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE FEBRUARY. A 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL DIG ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS STATES THROUGH TODAY AND FRI. THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE PGF WHICH WILL MAINTAIN BREEZIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE INCREASE MID LEVEL RIDGING IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE VERY WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION.
SKIES ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE MERCURY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 80S MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE RIDGE THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN US INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF AND FL. THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP ANY MEANINGFUL TROUGHS AND FRONTS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST LATE WEEK AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST.
BUT THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN VERY MOIST. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WERE PREVALENT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. BEFORE DRY AND MILDER HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS AND REMAINS INTO THE WEEKEND. EXTENDED THE NC PIEDMONT ADVISORY FROM LINCOLTON TO STATESVILLE WHERE TEMPS HAVE NOT APPRECIABLY RECOVERED ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST SPOTS. A POTENT SECOND WAVE WILL ROUND THE EASTERN TROUGH AND CROSS THE APPALACHIANS CIRCA 00Z THIS EVENING.
455 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016 LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY EXIT OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. QUIET WEATHER WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
1136 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016 LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. ALSO THERE ARE NOW A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE THE THE SNOW STARTS. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH HEIGHT FALLS CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA. MODELS TRACK THE LOW ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY 06Z AND INTO EASTERN WV BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAS THE HIGHEST QPF TOO FAR NORTH INTO THE COLDER AIR. SNOW WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AS THE LOW QUICKLY TRACKS INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN UTAH BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE PASSES EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS ALOFT BACKING TO SW AND INCREASING. THE NEXT TROUGH DAMPENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BARELY REACH FREEZING. AS THE LOW LIFTS TO OUR NE OVERNIGHT. EVEN IF TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. THE PERSISTENT TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN U. WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. WITH THE LOW WELL SOUTHWEST TRACKING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. HOWEVER LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH THE TROUGH.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EWD AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES IN A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WHICH ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (1000 MB) IS LOCATED OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. WITH A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE HOLDING FIRM ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA. WITH THE HIGHER WINDS ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWING DOWN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY BUT MODELS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS BOUNDARY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST WITH RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY BUILDING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST PUSHES THE FLORIDA RIDGE SOUTH.
1144 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016 /06Z TAFS/ A cold front will bring north wind gusts of 20 to 23 KTS at KABI and KSJT beginning late morning/noon. A cold front will bring north winds, with gusts up to 20 KTS at KABI towards noon, and KSJT and KBBD early to mid afternoon.
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT IN THAT AREA.
THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR MOST OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE WARM FRONT. BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG WINDS TO OCCUR WILL BE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.
Another upper level trough embedded in the northwesterly flow aloft across western SD will dig southeast into western MO by 12Z TUE. Tuesday, The upper trough will dig southeast into the mid and lower MS river valley. Northwest winds will increase behind a surface cold front that will move southeast across the CWA during the early morning hours. The resulting low-level CAA will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler on Tuesday afternoon with highs in the mid 40s in extreme northeast KS to mid 50s across the southwest counties. By Tuesday night into Wednesday, the region will be under meridional flow with the mid-level trough to the east and a mid-level ridge to the west. The mid-level ridge will advance into the central U.
DEWPOINT TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG A CORPUS NAS TO BAFFIN BAY LINE. ALI AND CRP WILL BE ON THE BORDER ON WHETHER THIS HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REACH THIS AREA FOR DENSE FOG TO FORM.
WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT LAGGING BEHIND THE PRECIP LINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION.
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TOMORROW. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES.
336 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016 THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. WITH MOST READINGS IN NORTH DAKOTA HOLDING IN THE UPPER 20S AND SEVERAL IN THIS CWA IN THE LOWER 30S. THERE IS A WARM LAYER ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE PCPN WHICH COULD PRODUCE FREEZING RAIN. THE GFS ALSO SUPPORTS FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THERE IS A LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT. WILL ADD PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATER TONIGHT.
913 PM PST MON FEB 15 2016 HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
344 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016 WE CAN TAKE A BREATHER FOLLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN/THUNDERSTORM COMBO WEDGE EVENT. NOW FINALLY ERODING TO ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NE AND PRECIP PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA WITH THE DEPARTING LOW EARLY THIS MORNING. FOR NOW THE THERMAL COLUMN LOOKS A BIT TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN SHOWERS THOUGH A MIX TO SOME LIGHT SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE LATE THIS EVENING /NO IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IF IT DOES MIX FOR A FEW HOURS/.
AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE REGION. INVOK APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL PLAINS.
These areas will see reduced vsbys but also, may have slick spots on area roadways where temps at/below 32F, esp bridges/overpasses. The exceptions will be early in the day, where it may be freezing rain in locations where surface temp is 32F or lower, and may mix with sleet/or snow in far northwest. Max accums of freezing/frozen look to stay below 1" and thus below any headline necessity.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SET TO EJECT NE AS THE ATTENDANT 500MB TROUGH NEGATIVELY TILTS ONCE IT MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. OVERALL THE MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED BETTER QPF TO THE SOUTH AND GOOD CLUSTERING IS TAKING PLACE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH REGARDS TO THE LOW TRACK.
BUT WITH WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS TURNING WEST/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE THROUGH DEVELOPING QUICKLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BEGINS MOVING EAST. THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUE AS BROAD H5 RIDGE SEEN EARLIER IN THE WEEK BEGINS TO BREAKS DOWN/FLATTEN ALLOWING FOR ZONAL FLOW OVER THE PLAINS/ROCKIES REGION.
A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA.
342 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016 An upper level ridge along the west coast will move east toward the forecast area today and Wednesday.
HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS WELL AS WINDS DIMINISHING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BUT ANOTHER IS FAST ON ITS HEELS AS CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM DROPS RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
/ISSUED 946 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016/ DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING BEHIND TODAY/S COLD FRONT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES TO LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. /ISSUED 347 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016/ LATEST 21Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONT BASICALLY AT THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM 12Z SHOW A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD DROP INTO THE MAIN TROUGH TOMORROW AS IT PUSHES INTO THE TENNIS'SVALLEY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NOW OVER THE PACIFIC COAST SHOULD START TO MOVE EAST TOMORROW.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND POSSIBLY A FEW CLOUDS BUT SHOULDNT RESULT IN ANY IMPACT TO ANY TERMINALS.
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE THE AREA TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALOFT - A SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH. WAS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SURFACE - A LOW IN NORTHERN GA TRAILED A COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE AND OUT OVER THE GULF. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN EXITING FL DURING THE AFTERNOON. THROUGH WED THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN STATES ALTHOUGH IT DOES SHIFT EASTWARD. AS AN UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
238 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. SURFACE WEDGE FINALLY BREAKING DOWN ACROSS THE CWA AS WARM FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING NOW ACROSS THE CWA. PLENTY OF RAINFALL PUSHING ACROSS THE CWA AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN RATHER BROAD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID-WEEK.
INVOK APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL PLAINS. /ISSUED 839 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016/ COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT CONVECTIVE RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER ALL BUT OUR ERN TAF SITES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE REGION. MOIST SOILS FROM MORNING RAINFALL COMBINED WITH THE LOW LEVEL PROFILES SUPPORT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DESPITE DRIER AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST IS GOING TO SEE SOME IN AND OUT SMALL AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE.