Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Following this weak theta-e ridging at 700mb suggest this feature will continue to weaken towards midnight as it moves eastward but could strengthen once again across portions of S AR and N LA. Temperatures are obviously cooler across the northern half of NE TX where we have seen rainfall this evening with those temps pretty close to forecast mins. A quick check at the 700mb theta-e sfc showing an area of lift along a ridge axis across NE TX into SW AR and that is exactly where convection continues to develop early this evening. The 18z NAM shows this ridging quite well even though it is void of QPF output.
1036 PM EDT Sun Apr 10 2022 A rapid warming trend will occur to start the week as an upper level ridge builds over the area.
442 PM MDT Sun Apr 10 2022 Current surface analysis shows low pressure centered over central Wyoming, as well as a low level wave moving through eastern SD. Upper level analysis shows mild upper trough over the Northern Plains, with flow becoming more zonal this evening and Monday. Models are fairly consistent with moving the upper low out of the Pacific Northwest and pushing it into the Intermountain West as a closed low. Model agreement is coming into place showing the highest potential snowfall north of our forecast area, however significant snowfall is still expected along for our northern tier counties.
743 PM EDT Sun Apr 10 2022 High pressure will bring dry conditions and rising temperatures through the middle of the week.
512 PM EDT Sun Apr 10 2022 Ridging at all levels of the atmosphere will be slipping away to the east tonight, while a surface cold front progresses southeast through the Midwest. The upper level pattern will start with broad troughing over the western CONUS and a 528 dam closed low over the northern Rockies. Weak ridging/quasi-zonal flow will cover the Southwest and northward through the upper Great Lakes. During the next 24 hours or so the trough will dig southeast, amplifying the overall pattern across the CONUS.
1009 PM EDT Sun Apr 10 2022 Currently - A healthy surface anticyclone moving east off of the Georgia/Carolina coast is producing moderate to fresh northeast to east breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. Temperatures remain in the lower 70s with dew points rising to near 60. This is consistent with lower to mid level ridging now in place across the area. Short Term Update - The high cell will nudge a bit further east through the overnight and will try to push breezes further easterly across the entirety of the forecast area. A ridge off the Carolina coast will maintain moderate to fresh northeast to easterly breezes on Keys waters through the overnight period.
Short Term (Rest of Today and Monday): High pressure with a benign weather pattern as we end the weekend and move into Monday. As we move into Monday, the high pressure will slide east of the peninsula with easterly flow re-established across South Florida.
Much warmer weather can be expected this week. By Tuesday morning, any lingering rain will be south of Pittsburgh, and will end as the cold front sinks south of our region. Another brief dry interlude will follow for Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening with transient mid-level ridging. The mid-level ridge axis exits the region Tuesday night.
Snow will also impact much of the region and the approaching low pressure system is already producing snow at low elevations in Oregon. The track of the low remains favorable for impactful snow throughout most of Idaho County, southern Ravalli County, Lemhi County, and Granite/Deer lodge/Powell/Silver Bow counties, which all have either a winter storm warning or winter weather advisory in effect from this afternoon through Tuesday morning. Low pressure will pass to the east during Tuesday, leaving most places with high temperatures in the low 30s or colder and decreasing snow showers. A closed low pressure system will track across eastern Oregon this afternoon, reaching north-central Idaho by 12/0000Z.
Warm front today. Weak cold front Monday night, quickly returning as a warm front Tuesday.
155 AM EDT Mon Apr 11 2022 High pressure slides off the Southeast coast Monday into Monday night.
1250 AM PDT Mon Apr 11 2022 Precipitation is likely in most of Central California today and tonight ahead of and along a cold front.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 57 76 60 80 / 30 40 20 20 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 74 56 75 58 80 / 20 40 30 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 71 55 75 58 79 / 30 50 30 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 73 49 74 53 79 / 20 40 30 10 20.
Southerly winds around the western periphery of the high pressure will continue to usher moisture into the region through the period. Mild temperatures continue into Monday night as lows fall into the lower to mid 60s. By Tuesday, southwesterly flow aloft takes hold due to an upper level trough digging across the Pacific Northwest and into the north central Plains. At the same time, upper level ridging over the southern Gulf begins to amplify into the western Atlantic.
300 AM EDT Mon Apr 11 2022 Rain chances increase today with a crossing warm front, and continue tonight with a cold front. Dry and warmer weather is expected by Tuesday afternoon. A clearing trend is then expected under building high pressure.
Key Points: - Very high fire danger until around sunset today - Active Tuesday with fire weather and severe weather Cold front has been pushing across the area throughout the day and is on the Topeka doorstep as of 2:30 PM.
The placement of the high will allow for an easterly or southeasterly return flow across the area. This will support the warmer temps this afternoon across southwest Florida and may somewhat limit the inland extent of the Gulf Breeze. Moving forward through the short term into tonight and especially into Tuesday, upper level flow begins to transition from a progressive/zonal flow to a dry northwest flow as an upper ridge develops over the southern portions of the Gulf of Mexico.
1108 PM EDT Sun Apr 10 2022 Mainly clear skies will be found across the region overnight with a widespread frost expected in the morning as high pressure moves directly overhead.
Tomorrow thicknesses increase as the upper flow becomes more zonal in response to a deepening upper low over the western CONUS. 28 Tuesday will begin the transition out of high pressure. Ridging remains in place for the first half of the week keeping most of the SW dry.
228 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022 Spring has returned! This cool air that we've been experiencing the last several nights has finally exited the region and temperatures are considerably warmer this morning.
We have had several reports of 55-70mph winds, and had to expand the High Wind Warning to additional forecast zones this afternoon. Further to the north, we will have the upper level low slowly moving to the east and northeast, causing light rain/snow showers to occur through this evening. Winds will be breezy across the higher terrain by Monday afternoon. Dry slotting will likely limit precipitation totals for the majority of the CWA, but especially across the high plains east of the Laramie Range where westerly downsloping flow should help keep things on the dry side. South to southwest winds of 25-35mph across the lower terrain with min RH near 20 percent by Monday afternoon across the Southern Nebraska Panhandle.
High clouds also moved in for the early afternoon, which should start to curb the temperature rise with highs this afternoon settling in the upper 50s in the warmest spots, possibly cresting into the low 60s. As we progress into the evening, gusty winds will continue through the evening, ahead of a weak cold front that will cross the region. Went with warmer guidance fr Monday, as the returning sunshine, warm start to the day, and gusty winds from the west-southwest will likely make for a warmer day than today.
The high pressure and cooler air has caused a robust subsidence inversion at 850 mb, and limited low level lift and will keep rain chances at nil today and through the middle of the week. High pressure will move east of Florida this morning and cause breezy conditions this evening.
This is approximately 20 to 30 degrees warmer than yesterday morning. A cold front located across MO/OK this morning will drift southeastward towards the Tennessee Valley by this evening.
a cold front stretched from northern Missouri to far southeast Kansas into northeast Oklahoma. The interaction of this feature with lift along the slowly moving cold front will aid in the anticipated storm initiation across northern/northeast Oklahoma over the next hour or so. The cold front and or surface outflow boundary is forecast to push into east central Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas by 12z Monday.
A lee trough will help enhance the downslope warming for the urban corridor. Unsettled weather returns Monday night into Tuesday across the high country ahead of an approaching trough axis. Most of the snow should be light/moderate, with the potential for a heavier band along the cold front sometime Tuesday. Over the plains, the main question will be the timing of the cold front Tuesday. As the trough passes to our north overnight Tuesday the flow transitions to the west-northwest. There should be sufficient moisture for at least some light snow to continue across the favored aspects in the high country while the plains sees a cool but breezy (again) day.
1201 AM EDT Mon Apr 11 2022 High pressure will bring dry conditions and rising temperatures through the middle of the week.
Short range guidance is in good agreement suggesting the next upper level trough will dig into the Pacific Northwest daytime Monday. Later tonight, as the surface cyclone continues to deepen to <990-mb, the strong south/southeast winds will be maintained and spread east, encompassing our entire CWA by 06Z Tuesday.
1102 PM EDT Sun Apr 10 2022 Mainly clear skies will be found across the region overnight with a widespread frost expected in the morning as high pressure moves directly overhead.
304 AM EDT Mon Apr 11 2022 High pressure pushes offshore this morning.
1029 PM MDT Sun Apr 10 2022 Current surface analysis shows low pressure centered over central Wyoming, as well as a low level wave moving through eastern SD. Upper level analysis shows mild upper trough over the Northern Plains, with flow becoming more zonal this evening and Monday. Models are fairly consistent with moving the upper low out of the Pacific Northwest and pushing it into the Intermountain West as a closed low. Model agreement is coming into place showing the highest potential snowfall north of our forecast area, however significant snowfall is still expected along for our northern tier counties.
Cooler with a few showers around the area Tuesday. Dry and warmer the second half of the week with some breeziness at times. A broad trough over western states will gain some inflection as a storm system near the Pacific Northwest digs into the Great Basin today. A trailing cold front will pass through SE AZ Tuesday afternoon, but for the most part virga or sprinkles for our area.
Strong westerly winds aloft this morning are pushing into NW NV ahead of a cold front that will spread south and east across the Great Basin the rest of today. Most precipitation will be along and north of the Highway 50 corridor, with minimal snowfall impacts in most valley areas.
925 AM EDT Mon Apr 11 2022 High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern across South Florida. The placement of the high will allow for an easterly or southeasterly return flow across the area. This will support the warmer temps this afternoon across southwest Florida and may somewhat limit the inland extent of the Gulf Breeze. Moving forward through the short term into tonight and especially into Tuesday, upper level flow begins to transition from a progressive/zonal flow to a dry northwest flow as an upper ridge develops over the southern portions of the Gulf of Mexico.
Scattered showers and isolated t'storms will move across the area throughout the day, with the highest chances at CKV.
522 AM EDT Mon Apr 11 2022 Rain chances increase today with a crossing warm front, and continue tonight with a cold front. Dry and warmer weather is expected by Tuesday afternoon. A clearing trend is then expected under building high pressure.
They should be rain with surface temperatures above freezing, even with 850mb temps below zero.
725 AM EDT Mon Apr 11 2022 Rain chances increase today with a crossing warm front, and continue tonight with a cold front. Dry and warmer weather is expected by Tuesday afternoon. A clearing trend is then expected under building high pressure.
429 AM MDT Mon Apr 11 2022 Snow has already formed over the far west in a moist westerly flow ahead of the main trough/upper low pushing into the Pacific Northwest. This mid-level upper low is expected to push slowly into southern Idaho by around 06Z Tuesday. Ahead of this trough there will be strong QG forcing and dynamics associated with the left-exit region of an 120kt upper jet. This low will finally push out of the area late Tuesday afternoon/evening with the associated forcing lifting away from the area.
Highs will be mainly in the lower to mid 90s, except in the upper 80s in the Big Country where slightly cooler air will advect in.
521 AM EDT Mon Apr 11 2022 Rain chances increase today with a crossing warm front, and continue tonight with a cold front. Dry and warmer weather is expected by Tuesday afternoon. A clearing trend is then expected under building high pressure.
537 AM MDT Mon Apr 11 2022 Upper low moving into the Pacific Northwest west will swing through the northern Rockies tonight, spinning up a lee low in Colorado. Tight gradient with the inverted trof extending north from the Colorado low will bring strong enough winds for Blizzard conditions for portions of southeast Montana and western North Dakota.
520 AM MDT Mon Apr 11 2022 Snow has already formed over the far west in a moist westerly flow ahead of the main trough/upper low pushing into the Pacific Northwest. This mid-level upper low is expected to push slowly into southern Idaho by around 06Z Tuesday. Ahead of this trough there will be strong QG forcing and dynamics associated with the left-exit region of an 120kt upper jet. This low will finally push out of the area late Tuesday afternoon/evening with the associated forcing lifting away from the area.
Spring has returned! This cool air that we've been experiencing the last several nights has finally exited the region and temperatures are considerably warmer this morning.
359 AM MDT Mon Apr 11 2022 Upper low moving into the Pacific Northwest west will swing through the northern Rockies tonight, spinning up a lee low in Colorado. Tight gradient with the inverted trof extending north from the Colorado low will bring strong enough winds for Blizzard conditions for portions of southeast Montana and western North Dakota.
Due to this, decreased the high temperatures by a few degrees. A cold front located across MO/OK this morning will drift southeastward towards the Tennessee Valley by this evening.
mainly in the southwest part of the area where dew points are rising as warmer and more moist airmass is being advected northeastward. Did not change high temperatures from highs in the lower 70s most lower elevation sites.
This system shifts northeast of the area and upper level ridging builds in tonight into Tuesday morning. With ridging moving in overhead and loss of daytime heating any lingering showers or storms should diminish in coverage after sunset. Temperatures should stay in the lower to middle 70's today, dipping into the lower to middle 60's tonight.
A longwave trough over central and western Canada will dominate the weather across the U. Ahead of the trough southwest flow will bring warmer air into the region along with periods of rain.
1106 AM EDT Mon Apr 11 2022 Mean layer ridging across the region remains in control of our sensible weather for the Florida Keys. Otherwise, high pressure will maintain breezy conditions at times across the island chain and surrounding coastal waters.
Winds weaken tomorrow, but usher in much cooler temperatures. Start time for the high wind warning for the eastern Sierra and Owens Valley has been bumped up to the current time. During this time, a 500mb jet max will be pivoting around the base of the trough, impinging on our area and setting the stage for strong downslope winds. A cold front is expected to push through overnight, shifting winds to the northwest and bringing an end to the strongest winds.
(This evening through Tuesday) Temperatures were a bit cooler in the Big Country this afternoon behind a weak cold front. South of the front winds were out of the west allowing temperatures to climb into the lower 90s.
A strong cold front continues to move rapidly through south-central Idaho this afternoon, accompanied by isolated thunderstorms, gusty winds, and brief moderate to heavy snowfall. Instability associated with a deep upper low over the PacNW was supporting snow showers over eastern Oregon. The snow showers will continue with the upper low as it moves across our area tonight. The low will be well to our east on Tuesday as another upper low approaches the PacNW. Snow showers will continue through Tuesday and Tuesday night, mainly over the higher elevations. Some of the snow showers will produce moderate to heavy snowfall, mainly over the higher elevations. Light snowfall accumulations are likely for portions of the lower elevations.
A few areas will likely see the lower 60s before we get past peak heating this afternoon. As WAA increases again aloft ahead of the approaching low pressure system, clouds will return by mid Tuesday morning, leading to a fairly cloudy day Tuesday. Temperatures will once again be fairly warm, with highs in the lower 50s to lower 60s. A few showers could develop by the late afternoon, meriting some low pops early in the day, but most of the precipitation will likely hold off until the arrival of the cold front Tuesday evening. Tuesday Night Through Monday Heavy rainfall and severe weather potential with a strong low pressure system during the middle of the week will be the main forecast concern.
This shift has led to more southeasterly winds today and thus moderating conditions, with high temperatures topping out a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Over the next few days, upper ridging will build over the local area in response to a trough to our west. This ridge will also keep us dry through mid-week.
Data fm our 20z RAOB here at LZK shows that the low lvl capping inversion has all but eroded.
457 PM EDT Mon Apr 11 2022 A frontal boundary is laid out from northeast TX to the lower Great Lakes late today, heading southeast toward KY. Ridging aloft is then induced over our area as a large trough deepens over the western CONUS. Despite warm/moist advection and the front in the area, the ridging aloft will act to suppress precip, and precip will probably dry up in the afternoon and evening. The upper level ridge shifts east of the area on Tuesday night. Models depict a short wave trough riding up the east side of the approaching synoptic scale trough late Tuesday night.
Clouds will filter into the region Tonight as an upper low moves through.
992mb low pressure is north of Superior, with an associated cold front about to move off of ne lower MI. This is a brief intrusion of cooler air, with 850mb temps hovering near 0C thru tonight. This will suppress the cold front and zone of active wx further south, and mid/high clouds will thin and diminish with time. Eastern upper MI, a little deeper into cooler/relatively moist low-level, will see some stratocu arrive toward midnight.
This strong gradient is the result of a powerful low-pressure system moving east in northern Oregon.
349 PM EDT Mon Apr 11 2022 A low pressure system will bring some showers to the area tonight into Tuesday morning, with drier and warmer weather developing Tuesday afternoon.
1123 AM MDT Mon Apr 11 2022 Snow has already formed over the far west in a moist westerly flow ahead of the main trough/upper low pushing into the Pacific Northwest. This mid-level upper low is expected to push slowly into southern Idaho by around 06Z Tuesday. Ahead of this trough there will be strong QG forcing and dynamics associated with the left-exit region of an 120kt upper jet. This low will finally push out of the area late Tuesday afternoon/evening with the associated forcing lifting away from the area.
Also noted is next feature of concern in the way of a large upper low situated over the Pacific NW. Ahead of the dry line dew points are progged to reach the lows 60s. By early Tuesday evening, a cold front drops out of SD into the CWA, boundary layer moisture convergence will aid with storms transitioning to linear mode/QLCS with the primary threat becoming straight line winds mainly south of the I-80 corridor. Tuesday morning some light precip with maybe a few rumbles of thunder may accompany a warm front lifting our of KS and into the southern CWA.
High pressure will be passing just to our south overnight tonight which should keep conditions quite into Tuesday morning. Low pressure will be moving from the Central Plains toward the Midwest on Tuesday. Areas closer to the lake are expected to remain cooler tomorrow with increased cloud cover and winds off the lake.
The drier southeast CWA has trended to the lower RH values and is still supportive of the current Fire Danger Statement. Otherwise trended some slight pops in the far NW Tuesday night with possible amplifying trough west of the area and enhanced moisture.
Dry and warmer weather is expected for Tuesday. The forecast trend remains on track and changes for the near term period were not appreciable as showers will become more widespread tonight with improving moisture supply, jet-supported ascent, and cold frontal lift. A clearing trend is then expected under building high pressure.
317 PM EDT Mon Apr 11 2022 Weak cold front tonight, quickly returning as a warm front Tuesday.
High pressure will continue to slowly move eastward over the next few days.
A benign weather pattern with high pressure continuing to dominate through the early part of the week. With the high being locked into the western Atlantic, winds will remain east to southeasterly throughout the short term.
236 PM EDT Mon Apr 11 2022 Weak cold front tonight, quickly returning as a warm front Tuesday.
HREF shows the higher elevations experiencing wind advisory criteria winds through early morning.
On Tuesday, a deep closed low will lift into southeast MT. This will drive a strong cold front into the area. Windy conditions ahead of and behind the cold front. Highs are forecast to reach the lower 70s to around 80 ahead of the front. Ascent is forecast with the advancing upper trough with very limited moisture. The potential for thunderstorms exists with MUCAPEs from 250 to over 1000 j/kg across Boyd, Holt, Garfield and Wheeler County late afternoon just ahead of the cold front.
504 PM EDT Mon Apr 11 2022 A frontal boundary was laid out from northeast TX to the lower Great Lakes late today, heading southeast toward KY. Ridging aloft is then induced over our area as a large trough deepens over the western CONUS. Despite warm/moist advection and the front in the area, the ridging aloft will act to suppress precip, and precip will probably dry up in the afternoon and evening. The upper level ridge shifts east of the area on Tuesday night. Models depict a short wave trough riding up the east side of the approaching synoptic scale trough late Tuesday night.
633 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) Temperatures were a bit cooler in the Big Country this afternoon behind a weak cold front. South of the front winds were out of the west allowing temperatures to climb into the lower 90s.