Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
829 AM PDT Sun Jul 2 2017 Building high pressure will bring a warming trend this week. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO With a weak trough aloft and a coastal eddy churning one would have expected a deeper marine layer and more extensive low cloud coverage at sunrise this morning compared to yesterday. Not so; the low clouds still made it into the Inland Empire, but only its coastal corners. High pressure aloft begins to build today and strengthens Monday, squeezing the life out of our weak trough this morning.
754 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 Aviation A cold front will move through this afternoon with a few showers and thunderstorms. Then high pressure will provide fair weather for much of Lower Michigan through July 4th.
The low level lapse rates were marginally adequate for streamer showers to occur this morning.
Temperatures are running several degrees warmer this morning for most locations. Temperatures will be a little warmer today, generally 1 to 3 degrees warmer over yesterday's highs. Yesterday's weak upper trough has pushed east into the Great Basin, with high pressure over the eastern Pacific building into the region and bringing clear skies. Temperatures across the region are generally running a couple of degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Dry weather is expected today across the region and should continue through at least midweek under the influence of high pressure. The overall pattern will see some amplification over the next few days, as high pressure strengthens over the Great Basin, and an upper trough deepens over the northeast Pacific.
Sfc lee trof with upper high center over south central NM. Sufficient moisture for another round of tstms to develop aft 18Z over the higher terrain and move to the east and southeast.
Relaxed deep layer ridging bisecting central FL from west to east will keep flow light and allow sea breezes to shift winds to westerly later this morning and through the afternoon.
931 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 Weak high pressure in control today and tonight.
/ISSUED 421 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017/ Upper ridging making it's presence known with slightly above normal temperatures and little if any rainfall through the 4th of July holiday.
726 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 A weak cold front will move across the region early this morning. Latest weather analysis features weak surface cold front just to the west. Did maintain a slight chance across far southern zones into the overnight, but otherwise partly cloudy and modestly cooler/drier. Compressional heating ahead of the frontal passage will bring highs in the lower 90s on Monday, upper 80s coastal zones.
Hot with Heat Indices near 105 degrees this afternoon and Ridge axis remains south of the region and continues to leave NE FL/SE GA in general Westerly steering flow. Later start to convection again today will support max temps in the lower to middle 90s inland and near 90 at the coast and Heat Indices topping out near 105 degrees in many locations. High pressure ridge axis remains just south of the local waters.
Low level ridge axis remains across the area producing favorable boating conditions.
714 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 Weak high pressure in control today and tonight.
1217 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 Weak high pressure in control today and tonight.
1222 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017 A weak cold moves through this evening and yet another cold front moves across the area Monday evening.
An upper trough has just about exited the area into Idaho this morning and a quiet weather pattern will develop over the forecast area for the next few days. Temperatures today will be similar to yesterday in the Columbia Basin and 3 to 5 degrees warmer in Central Oregon and the mountains. Monday will be a couple of degrees cooler but the Fourth will rebound back to around today's temperatures.
218 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017 Showers and thunderstorms are expected today and tonight with a trough of low pressure.
Under mostly clear skies temps have been holding in the mid to upper 70s through the overnight hours as high pressure noses in from the east. High pressure aloft will hold back development of most storms but a few isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible. 50 inches and winds aloft are indcg the ridge aloft will be over the region. This pattern will continue into Friday and through the weekend with muggy overnight temperatures and afternoon highs xpcd into the lower 90s.
104 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017 The general trend of storms through the afternoon and evening will be an easterly motion with the highest chances of TSRA being at TYS and CHA.
Typical amounts reported so far are as much as a quarter of an inch in the higher terrain of the Coastal Mountains to around a tenth of an inch or less along the coast and in Douglas county.
aforementioned low scoots off to the east though a weak wave moving through very modest cyclonic flow may lead to some showers and possibly a few thunderstorms, though instability looks to be on the low side.
Expect this to be the case the next couple of days with only isolated brief showers possible as Southeast Texas is on the eastern edge of a mid/upper level ridge centered over the desert SW. Expect to continue to see max temps in the upper 80s along the coast and in the low to mid 90s inland through the weekend.
342 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017 High pressure will move east of the region tonight.
A high pressure ridge will persist across the southeast U. An approaching cold front will bring increasing chance of Thunderstorms late Friday through the weekend as it moves towards central Indiana.
Meanwhile, partly to mostly sunny skies have allow temperatures to rise into the lower 80s across the area. The surface and upper low to the north of us in Canada will shift to the east tonight and Friday, keeping the area under west-northwest flow aloft. The sfc features are At this point, the highest precipitation amounts will likely concentrate over eastern SD and west central MN.
Expect that most places will remain dry with warm temperatures through friday with a subtle upper level ridge in place.
Upper level high pressure over Texas and northern Mexico will predominate through the period.
An upper level low was over the Manitoba Lakes region early this morning and will move into northwest Ontario tonight, then continue slowly east Friday. However, this fog should quickly lift this morning as the low flow continues to turn southwest and increase. Winds will be gusty out of the west to southwest today and highs will range from the lower seventies to around eighty. Highs will again range from the lower seventies to around eighty.
Today through Friday night Pattern this morning is dominated by a sprawling ridge of high pressure over the desert southwest / northern Mexico and upper level low pressure moving across central Manitoba.
Our 12z sounding shows a little less PWAT compared to 24 hours ago but a well defined ThetaE ridge was apparent in the 850-700mb layer across the Lower Miss River Valley which combined with daytime heating should result in at least widely scattered afternoon convection. Further south and west into NW LA and much of NE TX, this region is more under the influence of the upper ridge axis and with slightly lower PWATs, do not believe an update for isolated convection is warranted attm.
High temperatures will reach the highest readings so far this year, with several record high temperatures likely during this period.
300 PM MDT Thu Jun 15 2017 Upper low continues to drift across southern Canada north of Minnesota with near zonal flow across the northern plains.
Highs this afternoon will be mainly in the mid to upper 90s, with lows tonight in the lower to mid 70s.
Otherwise, it will be breezy across the high plains with locally windy conditions west of Interstate 25 as gusts around 40 MPH will be possible.
A potent upper level ridge continues to build into the Desert Southwest region with fast zonal flow over the northwest and north central CONUS. Further east, broad weak troughing extends from the Great Lakes region southward into the southeastern U. At the surface, high pressure extends across the central Florida peninsula. For tomorrow, the ridge axis will slip a bit further south. Weak high pressure will ridge across the area through the period.
1110 AM MDT Thu Jun 15 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southern Manitoba, with high pressure over the northern Rockies. Upper level analysis shows low also over southern Manitoba, with weak ridging over the intermountain west.
Temperatures will be a little cooler today with more clouds and rain in the area as highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Temperatures will remain quite warm with lows Friday morning in the low to mid 70s.
1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017 Quiet weather and a cooler and drier night are making for some short- lived windows-open weather. Those storms will move out of the area by around midnight or so, but some models hint at a secondary area of development in northeast NE to northwest IA later in the night on the nose of the low-level jet. Surface winds are progged to be on the weak side, and T-Td spreads may be on the high side, especially if Thursday night storms scour out moisture.
With temperatures cooling a bit aloft, freezing levels have lowered and will allow for a hail threat with any of the stronger storms, especially if any storms can develop any organized rotation. Winds will increase again this weekend as a low pressure system develops over the Upper Peninsula and Lake Superior.
Dry air on water vapor imagery and shown on area time heights will slowly move through the area on the backside of the upper low.
A robust warming trend will continue today as high pressure builds over the southwestern portion of the country. Temperatures will spike upward tomorrow as the ridge rapidly strengthens. As expected, no significant difference this afternoon over yesterday, albeit temperatures are running slightly warmer at the surface. Further north, moisture is streaming into the Pacific Northwest a quasizonal flow, while closer to home, a broad low amplitude high pressure ridge prepared to rapidly strengthen over the four corners region through the coming days. Compared to previous forecasts, the latest model runs are trending warmer for an extended duration. Forecast models show the high pressure ridge over the desert southwest beginning a period of rapid strengthening late tonight into tomorrow morning. The ridge will continue to strengthen and backbuild deeper into California through the weekend which will contribute to continued warming at the surface.
Highs will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, with readings in the 80s to near 90 along the Missouri River Valley. Cloudy skies, and southerly surface winds in the overnight hours will keep the low temperatures mostly in the 60s.
But there is only weak surface ridging over the area and am not seeing any significant subsidence aloft.
Overnight lows in the low-mid 70s. Mid/upper level trough will help to nudge the low level ridge axis a little southward on Fri. PoPs continue on the high side Sat with values just a tad lower versus Friday. A storm system over the Nrn Plains/Great Lakes will combine with an easterly wave that will push acrs the NW Carib and into the GOMex to produce a broad troffing pattern east of the. This feature will keep the wrn flank of the Bermuda Ridge weak and disorganized while simultaneously allowing deep moisture to pool acrs the GOMex/Deep South.
Slow moving low pressure to the north responsible for continued westerly low level flow and cooler temperatures aloft which will result in favorable mixing again today, with BUFKIT mixed winds on the order of 20G30kts. Similar conditions are also expected with low humidity and temperatures in the low/mid 80s. Tonight we will see some weak/mid level isentropic lift west river progressing east towards morning, but this will amount to little more than a mid level deck and the low level environment will support cool and dry overnight conditions.
Maliawco Synoptic Setup: Hot high pressure sets over the Desert Southwest. On top of this a closed low sets over the northern British Columbia with weak ridge running north through the high plains of Montana and Alberta. Closed low has exited into Manitoba and should not have much influence over the area through the short term. Today through Friday: with weak ridge remaining in place and surface and 850 mb Temperatures stalling out in the mid teen Celsius, surface temperatures should remain the same in the mid to upper 70s. This will bring a cold front across Northeast Montana.
323 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017 For the remainder of the afternoon, temperatures will once again rise into the lower 90s across the area as steady warm advection continues. Dew point values have risen into the lower to mid 70s, making for heat indices near the 100 degree mark for areas across eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Fortunately, this transpired only recently as subsidence in the wake of early morning convection helped to temporarily scour out at least some of the low-level moisture content this morning. The warm sector will remain over the region as high temperatures approach the low 90s.
This is located along the intersection of a remnant outflow boundary from the convection last night and a weak cold front. Additional convection may fire further north along the cold front which extends to the northeast across northern KS, southeast NE, and IA. A quasi-stationary cold front will extend from extreme northwest Missouri into the southern plains.
This is mainly over the east slopes in places like Fairplay and Georgetown that are prone to winds descending from the higher mountains.
Temps look pretty similar to today south and in the case of the north a tad warmer Friday vs today.
This includes an atmosphere which will favor increasing thunderstorm coverage owing to a mid-level short wave trough and a strengthening low level jet. We will have to watch for any remaining outflow boundaries, however the presence of short wave ridging should inhibit initiation over most areas.
Upper low is currently situated over southern Manitoba with zonal flow over the central Plains. This will push a cold front across the central Plains, moving through the forecast area Sat night. Well above normal temps are expected to remain in place through Sat, although overnight MCS activity may make the high temp forecast Fri tricky. With very rich low level moisture remaining in place, heat index values will likely be in the 100-105 degree range, with the highest values arriving Sat.
The mid-level subtropical ridge, currently centered over Chihuahua state, will continue to dominate the weather pattern in the short-term.
An upper level low centered across Manitoba with zonal flow across the Central Plains. Skies will become partly to mostly cloudy tonight with lows ranging from the low 50s west to near 60 southeast.
Above normal temps will continue tomorrow, though highs should be a couple degrees cooler due to more clouds and slightly cooler 925 mb temps.
Dew points north of this boundary were in the lower and mid 50s and around 60F south of it. From late Friday morning into Friday afternoon, another short wave trough will move east through the region.
There may be a few storms Friday in the still-unstable atmosphere, but as the upper-level ridge over the southwestern United States begins to expand into the southern Plains, that should provide more and more inhibition.
119 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017 Showers and thunderstorms are expected today and tonight with a trough of low pressure.
319 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017 Showers and thunderstorms are expected today and tonight with a trough of low pressure.
339 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017 AS OF 1830Z THE PESKY UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA CONTINUES TO REMAIN STATIONARY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM SOUTHWESTERN KS INTO NORTHEASTERN NE.
/issued 327 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017/ First up this morning will be most likely the last chance for thunderstorms for the foreseeable future as subtropical high pressure repositions from northern Mexico today to AZ/NM this weekend.
The rain cooled air is in place across that area and current temps are in the lower 70s.
Given deep mixing, favored the higher edge of the 00-03 UTC suites for winds.
325 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017 Today's weather pattern involved upper and lower level troughs acting upon a rather unstable airmass. On Friday, the drier airmass will couple with some upper ridging and will reduce pops to only 20 percent.
Low temperatures tonight are expected to drop into the low to mid 70s. (Friday night through Thursday) An upper level ridge will centered across northern Mexico or the Southwest U.
126 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low over cntrl Manitoba resulting in cyclonic w to sw flow through the nrn plains and Upper MS valley into the nrn Great Lakes. Winds will increase again this weekend as a low pressure system develops over the Upper Peninsula and Lake Superior.
Zonal flow will persist across the northern Rockies and upper high plains the next couple days.
/issued 324 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017/ Upper ridging is over the southcentral part of the country with westerly flow aloft. The dryline is expected to mix further east on Friday with this feature across the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern Permian Basin during the afternoon. Temperatures on Friday are expected to be 100+ degrees across all but the highest elevations in the CWA.
and Friday A weak cold front was moving through western WI early this morning. Less humid and slightly cooler readings are expected tonight and Friday, with lows in the middle 50s to lower 60s, and highs in the lower to middle 80s.
With the late evening storms over eastern KS progressing into Missouri, cooler conditions were left in its wake with early morning temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s with dewpoints dropping into the 50s and 60s across north central to far northeast KS. Models show the stationary boundary lifting northward toward the KS/NE border late morning into this afternoon, allowing the southerly winds and mostly sunny skies to boost afternoon high temperatures into the low/mid 90s with dewpoints rising back into the upper 60s to low 70s across much of the CWA.
Also there is a trough right along the I-20 corridor that could provide additional lift for any storms. In fact a rouge shower has just developed on the southern edge of the trough so that will also need to be monitor through the day.
205 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017 There is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon as a weak trough moves across the area.
In its wake, expecting a dry day with decreasing cloudiness as a weak area of high pressure settles into the mid- Mississippi Valley. High temperatures will be similar to the past several days, in the low 90s for most areas. What will be of more interest for our neck of the woods will be possible convection developing along a weak cold front across southern Iowa westward toward the Missouri River early this evening. Due to the high uncertainty, have only schc to mid chc PoPs, mainly for western and northern CWA late tonight.
The most recent echoes on Doppler radar extend northwestward from the Lower Keys into the offshore Gulf waters, and further to those waters well offshore from mainland Monroe county. A moist and conditionally unstable airmass with generally light flow under a broad by low amplitude mid-level trough will support at least a chance of showers and thunderstorms locally.
With better moisture supply nearer to the upper level low, the northern two- thirds of the forecast area will see partly to mostly cloudy skies and high temperatures in the 70s.
As of 2 PM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South are cooler in the 70s across north Mississippi and West Tennessee near the Tennessee River due to shower and thunderstorms while temperatures have recovered back into the middle 80s to around 90 degrees.
The short term part of the forecast will mainly follow radar and satellite trends for the evening as a vort max crosses the area, and generally follow persistence for late tonight and tomorrow with a weak ridge over the area. A SW storm motion suggests that the central and southern sections of the area will have the highest precip chances through the evening, with locally heavy rain and possible minor flooding issues. Tomorrow should have less activity as a weak ridge will be over the area behind the exiting trough. Most convection should be focused on the higher terrain, and mainly diurnally-driven.
316 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017 The H5 pattern this morning was highlighted by a high over northern Mexico and a closed low over central Manitoba. Across the lower 48. zonal flow extended from the west coast into the Mississippi valley, where a trough was present in association with the upper level low over central Manitoba. East of the low over Manitoba, a ridge of high pressure extended from the mid atlantic north into southern portions of Hudson Bay. At the surface, low pressure was located over west central Kansas with a stationary front extending east northeast into southeastern Nebraska. South of the low a weak cold front extended into the Texas panhandle and northern New Mexico. dew points will reach the lower to middle 60s from Sargent to O'Neill at 18z Friday.
331 PM MDT Thu Jun 15 2017 This morning's H500 hand analysis is showing a much more progressive/zonal pattern across the lower 48 as the jet stream has settled across the northern states. A shift in some of the high latitude energy will allow the jet stream to dip into the Great Plains and Great Lakes region this weekend.
A warm front moving in to our north will likely keep cloud cover in place across the NE CWA. This will send a warm front eastward into Kentucky during the day Friday into Friday night, with the return of southerly winds pulling moisture off of the Gulf of Mexico.
822 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017 Upper level low over Ohio Valley will move east across the area bringing chances for showers and storms through Friday. Well defined upper level vort max rotating through the base of the parent upper low bringing a shield of light rain through the Tri State area and coal fields. With the upper low passing this evening and the 500mb height gradient sharpening in its wake, expecting winds to increase tonight with ridge and mountain top gusts in the 25-35kt range. Temperatures should be significantly warmer over the Tri State and coal fields/southern mountains tomorrow with a better chance to see sun.
Upper level trough, bringing mid level clouds and scattered light showers/sprinkles east in the region this afternoon, will move east into the evening. At the surface, a trough will also push through tonight bringing winds around to the west.
This activity will be associated with a bit stronger vorticity maxima that will eject from the closed upper low in Manitoba.
Also, given the lower wind speed over the Gulf,and that the latest marine model lowers the rip current risk for the gulf overnight, dropped the moderate risk for the Gulf coast beaches. The highest rain chances will migrate to southern interior areas early Friday afternoon due to daytime heating. /issued 734 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017/ A weak cold front is currently moving across South Florida this evening, and will continue to slowly move through during the overnight hours. /issued 334 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017/ A broken line of thunderstorms pushing across South Florida is located just ahead of a cold front this afternoon.
An upper level ridge axis has shifted east into the area today in the wake of the departing closed low. With plenty of sunshine across the CWA, temperatures have already risen into the low to mid 70s. For tonight, low pressure will develop in the plains with a stout southwest to northeast low level jet setting up at 40 to 50 kts. While we can't completely rule out some elevated convection with the low level jet, we are expecting most locations to remain dry tonight.