Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW 90S OR NEAR 90 THROUGHOUT THE MID-SOUTH. ALL THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE REGION. THE REST OF THIS WEEK SHOULD SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE HIGH REALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE WEST AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE EAST. THE MID-SOUTH WILL SEE A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE. THE WEAKENING RIDGE ALONG WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO THE REGION. YET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN TO THE REGION WITH SIMILAR STRENGTH HAS IT HAD YESTERDAY.
1021 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, KEEPING IT DRY AND QUIET. 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER GEORGIAN BAY WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH TONIGHT, KEEPING OUR WEATHER QUIET. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TONIGHT IT WILL BE CLEAR ONCE AGAIN WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SLIDE EAST OF CAPE COD BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO INCREASE BOTH OUR MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST FRIDAY.
WL UPDATE FCST TO INCLUDE ISOLD SHOWERS WITH 10 POPS FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS TDA OWING TO EVIDENCE OF ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS/INCREASING MOISTURE PER GOES SOUNDER DPI TPW (ISOLD SHOWERS WITH 10 POPS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN UPPER RIDGE AND MOISTURE. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ACROSS TEXAS WITH SUBSIDENCE KEEPING DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
1050 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. TURNING WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING.
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL ALLOW LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA TO SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TROUGH SAGS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH AND HAS A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT GENERATES ENOUGH LIFT THAT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND MAGIC VALLEY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY.
1000 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST TODAY.
1003 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE CREST OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AS COLD AS THE LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS TO MOVE IN. COOL AND DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA. AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL BRING SOME COOLING TO THE AREA ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CASCADES.
916 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW YORK TODAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE TODAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE TODAY WITH JUST A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS INLAND FROM THE LAKES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS TO FORECAST AREA. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND CROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING 45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS WILL WANE FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY IN A MUGGY AIR MASS IN WAKE OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.
WARMER ON FRIDAY. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS DRIFTED EASTWARD TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED TWO DISTINCT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. THE SECOND WAS A BROAD CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA BEING DRIVEN NORTHEASTWARD AROUND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS. HIGHS WARMER IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AT THE VERY START OF FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT.
/ISSUED 429 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER EAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER REMAINING SUPPRESSED OVER EAST TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
REACHING MID 80S WITH LIGHT S-SE BREEZES 10-15 MPH DEVELOPING AND MORE HUMID AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE OF WI BY DAWN FRIDAY AND PUSHES WARM FRONT EAST OF IL BY THEN. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRI-SAT OVER MAINLY AREAS FROM I-74 NE AS MORE SHORT WAVES RIDE OVER TOP OF SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
1032 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE COOS BASIN HAVE DISSIPATED ALREADY THIS MORNING.
WITH THE NAM BEING ON THE HIGH END AND THE GFS BEING ON THE LOW END. MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BACKING INTO THE SOUTHWEST AS A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR MOVES TOWARDS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. WILL SEE SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. KEPT POP AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT.
609 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 255 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015/ AT 245 AM TEMPS WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO ARND 70. AT 5H THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WAS OVER TX. AS THIS UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD THRU THE WEEKEND. NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN AS HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 90S TODAY AND MID/UPPER 90S FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS RISE TO THE LOWER 70S AND ALONG WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 100 DEGREES IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET THAT A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE WEEKEND.
GOOD CONVECTIVE INHIBITION CONTINUES DUE TO UPPER RIDGING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MEANDERING ABOUT THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WILL HOWEVER BEGINNING ADDING SOME LOW END POPS AS RIDGE GRADUALLY RETROGRADES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN AN OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NORTHWEST GULF INTO THE NEW WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES BUILDING IN FROM THE SRN PLAINS WILL ALSO AID IN ESTABLISHING A CAP TO PREVENT ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IN THE LOW 90S. GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
749 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WEATHER WILL THEN BECOME MORE ACTIVE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ON FRIDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TOWARDS OUR FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES REMAIN LOW WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN CSRA WITH INTERACTIONS WITH THE TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE UPPER RIDGING SHIFTING FARTHER WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
714 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015 AVIATION A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NEW ENGLAND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
733 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WEATHER WILL THEN BECOME MORE ACTIVE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ON FRIDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TOWARDS OUR FORECAST AREA.
729 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2015 High pressure remains over the area. Highs for today and Friday are expected to be in the lower 90s with afternoon heat index values ranging from the upper 90s to near 100. Conditions are expected to remain hot and dry through the weekend as the upper level ridge remains in place over the area.
1019 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY.
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WITH THE RIDGE NOT CENTERED OVER THE AREA AND REMAINING A BIT WEAKER THAN WE MIGHT EXPECT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SEA BREEZE.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. PWATS REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH UNDER THE RIDGE. A WEAK AND RELATIVELY DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
Northwest winds behind the front will usher in cooler and slightly drier air into the region today.
407 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015 SE TEXAS WAS IN THE WEAKNESS AREA OF A RIDGE THAT EXTENDED FROM THE ROCKIES TO TEXAS TO ACROSS FL. OTHER WEATHER FEATURES OF NOTE EARLY THIS MORNING WERE A 200 AND 300 MB LOW LOCATED OFFSHORE OF THE S TEXAS COAST AND A COLD FRONT THAT WAS THROUGH THE PAN HANDLE ACROSS N TEXAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE MORE ISOLATED DUE TO TRAINING OF STRONGER STORMS ALONG EITHER THE COLD FRONT OR ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT MOVE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWED THE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DO LIKE THE ASSESSMENT GIVEN THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTHWARD.
448 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN SOME AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD NORTHEAST OHIO THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION.
SEASONAL RIDGE AXIS. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S (BIG PINE KEY) TO THE LOWER 80S.
154 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015 COLD FRONT MOVING INTO/ACROSS WKY AT THIS WRITING. WHILE THIS WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO COOLER/DRIER AIR COMING IN ITS WAKE. COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WITH THIS COOLER HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR A QUITE PLEASANT NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MEAN ENERGY IN THE GREAT LAKES LOW SPILLS AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF AND SHOULD LEAD TO A MORE SCATTERED MID TO HIGH CHANCE POP FOR US AS ITS ENERGY PINWHEELS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
320 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING NE ACROSS OH WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING TN THROUGH THE DAY. AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PROVIDES SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE. THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
The historically warm air mass and strong high pressure will begin to reach its peak today and Sunday across the Northern Rockies. Records are expected to be broken starting today, with temperatures trending even warmer on Sunday.
649 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
350 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD TODAY.
328 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY AND TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT. H5 RIDGE WL BE HOLDING TIGHT SAT EVNG AND FLATTENING AS LEAD S/WV HEADS NORTH INTO MAINE BTWN 06Z AND 12Z. ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH NEW YORK STATE AS A SECONDARY LOW ON SUNDAY FORMS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.
HIGH RES MODELS SUGGESTING VERY STRONG OUTFLOWS WILL BE GENERATE FROM AFTERNOON STORMS IN ERN PIMA COUNTY AND SENT W-NW INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. A FINALLY THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WILL BE THE FOCUS OF STORMS TODAY LIKELY GETTING A LITTLE HELP AS A WEAKENING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AREA.
236 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015 COLD FRONT MOVING INTO/ACROSS WKY AT THIS WRITING. WHILE THIS WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO COOLER/DRIER AIR COMING IN ITS WAKE. COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WITH THIS COOLER HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR A QUITE PLEASANT NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MEAN ENERGY IN THE GREAT LAKES LOW SPILLS AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF AND SHOULD LEAD TO A MORE SCATTERED MID TO HIGH CHANCE POP FOR US AS ITS ENERGY PINWHEELS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A COLD FRONT IS MAKING PASSAGE ACROSS THE TERMINALS AT THIS WRITING.
311 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015 THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY HAS BECOME ONE OF A STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND A FAIRLY ACTIVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
HOT DAY HAS BEEN REPLACED BY MODERATE DELTA BREEZE SRN SAC VALLEY WITH TEMPS COOLER TEMPS. REDDING WAS JUST TWO DEGREES OFF AT 111 AND DOWNTOWN SACRAMENTO MISSED BY 1 DEGREE WITH 105 AS THE HIGH. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND SURGES OF MONSOON MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THIS RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL USHER IN SOME COOLER AIR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SOME 3-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT.
COLD FRONT WILL BE SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO WEAKEN FURTHER LATE IN THE NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN COOLER LOW LYING LOCATIONS. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD.
AS THE 500 BM TROFFING DIGS OVER THE MID MISS RIVER/OHIO RIVER VALLEY SAT AND SAT NIGHT AN AREA OF PV WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX WITH SOME BETTER MOISTURE VALUES ALSO ADVECTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TEMPS WILL GO WITH A LITTLE WARMER TEMPS TODAY VERSUS SUNDAY SINCE THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ON SUN WILL RESULT IN A LITTLE LOWER HIGH TEMPS.
OTHERWISE THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN WITH BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U. AND DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN U. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE WARM IN THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. THE DEVELOPING PATTERN LOOKS LIKE LAST SUMMER WITH RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.
125 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 UNSEASONABLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. THE TIMING OF THAT FEATURE WITH WARM FRONT POSITIONING AND PROLONGED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NORTH AND EAST OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS. AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH ARE PROJECTED FOR THE HIGHER TOTALS. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER VALUES ESCALATE IN VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.
THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HAS SLIPPED A LITTLE SOUTH AND IS NOW DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH FL EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER NEAR THE COAST WITH A FEW MID 90S POSSIBLE BEFORE THE ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. HAVE DRAWN SCATTERED POPS (30-50 PERCENT) ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE LOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGHER CHANCES ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE. A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER THE PENINSULA ON MON WHICH WOULD BRING SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION TO THE AREA.
UPPER RIDGE IS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF THE FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FAR EAST-CENTRAL NV THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHIFT IS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTH INTO NRN CA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AND THE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND THE RESULTANT CLOUD COVER.
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO ERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND. BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NW CARIBBEAN WILL BRING DEEP SWLY FLOW OVER THE PENINSULA.
311 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015 LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THERE WILL BE LOTS MORE SUNSHINE. COOLER TEMPS FOR TONIGHT.
330 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015 High pressure will dominate the region today and keep things generally dry. However, there could be a few stray showers or storms during the afternoon as a subtle vort max swings through on the back side of a Great Lakes upper trough.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE TODAY.
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
430 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015 THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FIRMLY PLANTED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH ITS AXIS ALONG THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BE PRESENT MOST OF THE WEEK.
WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD EXPECTING THIS UPPER LOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST IN NEW ENGLAND. HERE IN EASTERN KENTUCKY WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NE INTO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS IT BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. THIS WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT WE WILL HAVE A APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN COOLER AND DRYER WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH A RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. AS SOME TEMPORARY RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. BEFORE TROUGHING AND PASSING SHORT WAVES TAKE OVER THEREAFTER.
THE WARM FRONT STILL REMAINS PARKED OVER THE OH RIVER AREA DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN KY. THE COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE COOLER AIR BEHIND BEING A RATHER UNSEASONAL CHANGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. COOLER TEMPS WILL BE IN PLACE AND MORE SUBSIDENCE AS WELL. WITH A RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. AS SOME TEMPORARY RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. BEFORE TROUGHING AND PASSING SHORT WAVES TAKE OVER THEREAFTER.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE LOWER 20S CELSIUS, WHICH WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN. OTHERWISE, HIGHS WILL BE WARMER THAN COMPARED TO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S.
High pressure and cooler temperatures will push into the region for Saturday, and quiet conditions are expected to continue at least through Sunday morning.
1247 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015 ALOFT: AMPLIFICATION WAS UNDERWAY WITH AN ANOMALOUS /+2 SD/ RIDGE AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE WRN USA. THIS TROF WILL ESTABLISH DRY NW FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AS IT DEPARTS TO THE E TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SINK S AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS IN STORE WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST. ALTHOUGH OUR CHANCES FOR RAIN APPEAR SCANT WITH THE STRONG INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN RIDGE. ESPECIALLY TOWARD MID-LATE WEEK WHEN IMPULSES MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES HELP BREAK DOWN THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE A BIT. WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
621 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TO THE REGION.
202 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MOIST UNSTABLE AIR HAS ROTATED INTO OREGON AND WASHINGTON AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. THIS HAS KEPT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN EXPECTED. WITH THE WARMER START EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE RECORD LEVELS AGAIN TODAY.
HOWEVER -SHRA THREAT DWINDLING AS DRIER LOW TO MID LEVEL AIR CIRCULATING AROUND LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL GTLAKES SPREADING ACRS SE WI.
410 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 UNSEASONABLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. THE TIMING OF THAT FEATURE WITH WARM FRONT POSITIONING AND PROLONGED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NORTH AND EAST OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS. AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH ARE PROJECTED FOR THE HIGHER TOTALS. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER VALUES ESCALATE IN VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.
126 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 THERE WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE LOW LAYERS REMAIN VERY MOIST AND AN AREA OF STORMS OVER MIDDLE TN WILL MOVE IN. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND SHIFTS WINDS TO THE WEST.
647 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN SOME AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD NORTHEAST OHIO THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETAIN ITS STRONGHOLD OVER THE GREAT BASIN. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN/CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A POSSIBLE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE TO MORE ZONAL FLOW TOWARD THE END. THE RIDGE AXIS IS NOT STABLE AND WILL WOBBLE.
346 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN TODAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL TIGHTEN A BIT.
205 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AREAS OF POST RAIN DENSE FOG FORMING IN BREAK BETWEEN IT AND NEXT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL FILL IN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AND LAST INTO SAT. AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN OHIO. LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BE EXITING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MUCH COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA.
550 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD TODAY.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS THAT STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. OTHERWISE ANOTHER SEASONABLY MILD DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S (COOLER NEAR LAKE HURON IN NORTHEAST LOWER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE WINDS). A THIN RIBBON OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. /ISSUED 341 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015/ THE SHORT AND MID RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH DURING DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE STORM THREAT WILL QUICKLY END BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. 39 EXTENDED PERIODS MARKED WITH MORE DYNAMIC PATTERN AS UPPER TROUGH RETURNS TO THE AREA. AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.