Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure overhead this morning will move off to the east today. A trough of low pressure will develop along the MT/ND border under near zonal flow aloft. The pressure gradient will be tight across the region by this afternoon between the high and the low, and 925mb winds approach 40kts by 00Z and 850mb winds get up around 50kts.
A cold front is just to the west of the area with Hurricane Matthew continuing to lift off to the ENE. Behind the front, much cooler and drier air will move into the area as high pressure builds. Highs this afternoon will be in the mid 80s to near 90, and fall into the lower to mid 80s for Monday afternoon. Lows tonight will be in the mid 50s to around 60 north, and in the lower 60s inland to near 70 coastal central and south. The models are in agreement a cooler and drier period with the broad upper high across the southeast U.
This will generate a light southerly flow on the backside of the high and a warming trend will ensue today. By sunset today, 850mb temperatures will be 8 to 10 C warmer than they were overnight. So, even with the cold start in the 30s and frost this morning, a large portion of southern MN will warm into the lower 60s with upper 50s in central MN and west central WI. The second area of cloud cover and precipitation is off to the northwest with a trough embedded in the Polar Jet.
410 AM EDT Sun Oct 9 2016 High pressure across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will yield dry and cool weather through Sunday. Highs later today will rebound into the lower to middle 60s. High pressure will remain over the area for one more night with lows dropping to around 40 to the mid 40s. An upper level ridge will build rapidly northeast Monday as an upper level trof moves east.
The subtropical ridge will build over the lower Mississippi River Valley today, gradually shifting east over the next few days.
Models have been consistent in keeping the low layers dry which should keep any rain on the light side tonight into Monday morning. This will push a cold front across the central and into the southern Plains Tue night through Wed.
649 AM EDT Sun Oct 9 2016 High pressure across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will provide another day of dry and cool weather. Highs today will rebound into the lower to middle 60s. Lows tonight will generally be in the lower to middle 40s.
Expect widely scattered shower and thunderstorms this afternoon, with the highest chances along and northeast of the Mogollon rim.
145 AM EDT Sun Oct 9 2016 High pressure across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will yield dry and cool weather through Sunday. Highs later today will rebound into the lower to middle 60s. Better rebound in temps over wrn zones tied to emerging warm advection yet all warmer than today. Aggressive thermal ridge builds through mid week. peaking Wed ahead of upper trough shifting ewd through cntrl Canada and in advance of surface cold front sweeping through the lakes. As in previous days will again modify mid week temps warmer per favored guidance blend.
344 AM EDT Sun Oct 9 2016 High pressure will build in bringing improving skies and drier air to the region.
248 AM CDT SUN OCT 9 2016 (Today and tonight) An upper level ridge centered over the Texas Gulf Coast extends northward over the eastern half of Texas this morning. The upper ridge will flatten over the Gulf Coastal states through tomorrow. An upper trough now over northern Arizona will move eastward through tomorrow with associated showers and convective activity preceding the upper trough axis through New Mexico and into western Texas. The flow aloft over the forecast area will remain southwesterly as the upper level ridge and the upper trough over the Desert Southwest shifts eastward.
The grids have been retrended based on current observations with lows ranging from the lower to mid 50s for our northeast counties and Hill Country to mid 60s for the Rio Grande Plains. /00z Update/ High pressure will remain over the region with VFR conditions expected through the period at the I-35 sites. Upper air analysis this morning showed a weak ridge building over Texas. At the surface, high pressure was settling in and winds were from the northeast. The upper level ridge will strengthen tonight and then begin to move to the east. The low level flow will continue to be from the northeast to east bringing drier air to the region.
248 AM EDT Sun Oct 9 2016 A cold front will cross the region and gradually push offshore today. High pressure will build in from the west late today through Monday.
High pressure will be in control. The high will be slipping off to the east by tonight, bringing a slightly milder southerly flow, especially above the decoupled boundary layer.
Radar is showing some increased returns over eastern Washington this evening as an upper level trough is dropping down the Canadian coast is helping to enhance the front.
A very dry airmass behind a cold front will allow for clear skies today.
Similar temperatures in the mountains and deserts Monday, but increasing onshore flow will bring gradually cooler conditions west of the mountains.
611 AM EDT Sun Oct 9 2016 A cold front will move offshore early this morning. Low pressure forming near the Mid-Atlantic coast will pull moisture north then track south and east of our region tonight.
00 UTC surface analysis shows a cold front across the forecast area extending just east of Tifton to west of Tallahassee and east of Panama City. Surface winds will stay up behind the front as high pressure is expected to remain back across Southern Missouri. Overnight lows should generally be in the upper 50s across our Northern zones and in the low to mid 60s down in the SE Fla Big Bend. Heights will continue to gradually rise through the period as a deep layer ridge builds across the Southeast.
Winds will generally be from a southerly direction through tonight due to high pressure to the east and a developing trough across eastern Colorado. As for temperatures, highs today look to reach into the low to mid 70s with lows tonight dipping into the low to mid 50s.
Cool and dry high pressure will settle over the region through the week. Dry high pressure continues to build over the region during this period in the wake of departing Matthew. Upper level ridge will build eastward from the Central Plains through Monday with persistent north to northeasterly flow across the region. Temperatures will be above normal Sunday with some downsloping flow helping warm the lower atmosphere with highs ranging from the mid 70s northern Midlands to upper 70s southern Midlands and CSRA. Cooler on Monday with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s and lows Monday night in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
A broad low pressure system over western Montana Sunday morning will bring a warm advection pattern across the region. Tonight will see a cold front begin to move through the northwest and bring a chance of rain.
Light southerly winds and some high cirrus cloud cover streaming over the area will help to keep low temperatures this morning a few degrees warmer in the mid 40s. This high cloud cover will continue to spread over the area, but expect southerly winds to push high temperatures into the low 70s this afternoon. Despite some mid-level moisture, model soundings show dry air in the low-levels, so it may be a question of whether or not the dry air can be overcome to aid in increased coverage of the scattered precipitation. The combination of southerly winds and increased cloud cover will keep temperatures warmer with overnight lows in the low/mid 50s.
High pressure ridge continues this weekend. Cooling trend starts Monday as a trough moves across the Pacific Northwest and weakens the ridge.
although this high will shift eastward over the coming day to allow a more southerly flow to develop and allow increasing high clouds in the afternoon and overnight. although a weak cold frontal boundary settling down from the north may bring some north or northeast directions this afternoon or evening along/north of I-74 as the front pushes into this region and stalls out.
Much warmer temperatures can be expected on Monday.
415 AM CDT Sun Oct 9 2016 Another day of fair weather on tap, but notably cooler thanks to the post-frontal air mass. Dewpoints and RH look to be low today along with temperatures in the lower to middle 80s and relatively light northeast winds. Lows tonight into Monday look to be even a few degrees cooler than this morning, though lows around 70 can still be expected very near the coast. Satellite shows some high cirrus passing over the area, but the radar is clear under a stout upper ridge and decreasing column moisture as precipitable water analyzed around an inch is unanimously progged to fall even lower today. Luchs Current water vapor imagery shows a short wave trough over the 4 Corners Region which will then push into the S Plains on Monday. High pressure over the eastern U.
139 AM EDT Sun Oct 9 2016 High pressure continues to build over the region with drier air mass moving into the area. A rather stable atmosphere was observed on the 12Z MFL morning sounding in the lower and mid levels. Maximum temperatures across the region should top out in the lower 90s, a few degrees above the norm for this time of year. By Monday, cooler weather will be advected into the region along with lower dewpoints in the mid 60s, a short relief from the typical muggy conditions.
High pressure remains intact tonight and with mostly clear skies and decreasing winds, radiational cooling will drop overnight lows into the mid 40s to upper 50s.
Weak low pressure will move across California on Monday, bringing cooler conditions and stronger onshore flow through the middle of the week. There is weak SW flow aloft over the area this morning as a little ridge pushes off to the east and a weak trof approaches from the west. Not much if any low level moisture with this system but it looks like there is enough instability to warrant a slight chc of showers over the higher mtn elevations.
Winds will be much lighter tonight into Monday, as upper level ridging over the southeast strengthens. Models do bring some high clouds into the area ahead of an upper level trough axis over the Mid-western states. Thus, expect warmer daytime temperatures (highs around 80 degrees.
329 AM CDT Sun Oct 9 2016 Benign weather continues across the region as high pressure continues to slowly slide into the Ohio Valley this morning. another beautiful fall day is in store for the region as most locations warm into the lower 70s this afternoon under partly cloudy skies.
653 AM EDT Sun Oct 9 2016 High pressure will build in bringing improving skies and drier air to the region.
At the surface, a surface boundary near the Kansas/Nebraska border will eventually move north as a warm front. Lows tonight will be noticeably warmer than the past couple of nights and we will continue on the warming trend with additional sky cover with temps generally bottoming out in the lower to mid 50s. The main trough is still to the west of the forecast area Monday morning and there is an upper level wave moving through the area.
The short wave trough aloft over southern California today lifts through the southwest U. A surface lee trough also deepens along the front range through the day on Sunday. As a result the increasing surface pressure gradient over the central high plains, southerly winds are expected to become gusty during the day with return flow around the high pressure area in place over the eastern plains transporting additional low level moisture into the region by mid day on Sunday with dewpoints increasing into the lower 50s.
Temperatures are in the lower 80s. A trough of low pressure will progress southward down the Florida peninsula today. This trough of low pressure will pass through the Florida Keys tonight. A large area of high pressure over the northeast United States will build southward down the Florida peninsula Monday and Monday night.
225 AM CDT Sun Oct 9 2016 Expansive high pressure remains in control across the region this morning. Early morning temperatures have fallen into the mid 40s, and by daybreak, should range from the low 40s east to mid to upper 40s west.
Stacked westerly flow occuring across the northern Rockies in response to an upper trof dropping across southern BC this morning. Lee side low developing in southern Alberta with warm front lifting through eastern Montana. The Alberta low and upper trof begin to shift east later today with cold front dropping into Montana.
Collab consensus yields a preference for CONSMOS to the Blend, early in the forecast, namely, slightly warmer daytime and slightly cooler night-time temps.
557 AM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016 High pressure over the region will result in VFR conditions through the period. Cloud cover associated with the trough remnants will also make progress farther south compared to yesterday combined with a diurnal component in coverage.
A warm and somewhat moist airmass will remain in place before an upper trough brings cooler temperatures back to the area midweek.
233 AM EDT Sun Oct 9 2016 High pressure building down from Canada will bring cooler temperatures to NY and PA today.
359 AM MDT Sun Oct 9 2016 An upper trough over northern AZ will gradually slide northeast and over the area today and tonight. The moisture and lift associated with the trough will move east of the area tonight with just a few lingering showers over the mountains near the Continental Divide south of Interstate 70. By Monday morning, the wave mentioned above will have shifted to the east but little reprieve as an elongated trough starts to drop down from the Pacific Northwest. Ahead of this trough, a 90kt jet streak will set up over the area.
318 AM CDT Sun Oct 9 2016 Weak cold front was located along Highway 30 and was slowly sagging southward. 3 am temperatures ranged from the lower to mid 40s north of the front to the upper 40s to lower 50s to the south. Afternoon maximum temperatures will range from the lower to mid 60s north to the lower 70s south. This will be a warmer night with lows ranging from the mid 40s to the lower 50s.
337 AM CDT SUN OCT 9 2016 A short wave trough will track east across the Panhandles today and tonight. Upper trough to eject east of the Panhandles Monday allowing for drier conditions as zonal upper flow prevails early this week.
High pressure was building into the forecast area at 19Z with dry air eroding some of the cloud cover. The high pressure will drift east of the region Sunday afternoon. Gusty winds will hold off until afternoon when the pressure gradient tightens up between the departing high and low pressure in south central Canada. South/southwest low level winds on the back side of the departing ridge axis will allow for warming temps within the building warm sector on Monday ahead of the next front.
/issued 746 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016/ The only real update will be to allow the high rip current risk to expire at 8 PM.
600 AM EDT Sun Oct 9 2016 A cold front will cross the region with a few showers before gradually pushing offshore today. High pressure will build in from the west late today through Monday.
505 AM EDT Sun Oct 9 2016 A cold front will move offshore early this morning. Low pressure forming near the Mid-Atlantic coast will pull moisture north then track south and east of our region tonight.
309 AM MDT Sun Oct 9 2016 Split flow exists over the western CONUS with a southern stream trough lifting northeast across AZ and NM and a deeper northern stream trough over British Columbia. Southern stream trough will pass well south of the CWA today, with just some mid and high clouds. It will be warmer today with 700mb temperatures 7-8 deg C. A strong cold front surges south across the CWA Monday night with a wind shift to the north-northeast.
Weak upper level ridging to build over the mid state through Monday. Looks like an influx of some high cloudiness by Mon nt as the aforementioned upper ridge shifts east and an impulse upstream approaches.
Cloud cover associated with the trough remnants will also make progress farther south compared to yesterday combined with a diurnal component in coverage.
Fair weather will continue through the beginning of the week with upper level ridge overhead. A reinforcing surge of high pressure will push into the region today, with drier air continuing to enter South Texas.
322 AM CDT SUN OCT 9 2016 The cold front is now well south and east of the forecast area.
A longwave mid/upper level trof moving into the New England states this morning will move on off the coast and into the north Atlantic tonight as mid/upper level ridging develops over the southeastern states.
551 AM EDT Sun Oct 9 2016 High pressure will build in bringing improving skies and drier air to the region.
140 AM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016 Aviation High pressure will continue to build in tonight through Sunday and Monday and bring fair weather with seasonable temperatures.
Temperatures will climb quickly after sunrise, and aside from a few upper 70s across the northwestern-most locations, highs in the lower to mid 80s will be the norm this afternoon. disturbance passes discreetly overhead on Monday, a much stronger northern branch trough will swing eastward across the Central Plains around mid week.
A cold front from east of the Continental Divide slipping in under the atmospheric river will make much of the precipitation in the Bob Marshall wilderness and Glacier National Park fall as snow, with some high elevation locations receiving around a foot of snow! Locations south of Missoula in Montana won't see much rain until late tonight, and will receive much less in general, with most locations getting less than 0.
The first will be Monday night as a short wave trough slides across the Upper Midwest. The models have been trending weaker with this short wave trough and also a little farther south when looking at 500 mb. 00Z NAM and GFS still suggest a significant portion of the short wave trough will track across the area. However, with the short wave trough bring disjointed, neither model suggests it will produce much pv advection with just some very weak pv advection in the 500-300 mb layer coming across late Monday afternoon and early in the evening. A stronger short wave trough will be moving across Canada, so the axis of moisture transport will be through the region and focused ahead of this wave.
The back door cold front will lift east as low pressure deepens across the Nrn High Plains. Southwest winds in advance of a cold front will help warm and dry the lower troposphere on Monday. Will have to watch RH values closely as the large scale pattern undergoes a ridge breakdown across the plains with the eastward advance of a northern Rockies mid-level trough. It is common to see large range fire growth during the final breakdown phase of the upper ridge during the Fall months.
A mid-level trough axis extended from southern Utah southward into southeast AZ early this morning. This trough axis will move ewd into the central/southern Rockies later today.
436 AM EDT Sun Oct 9 2016 A cold front trailed from New England to Florida this morning.
With a slowly moderating airmass, low temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than lows this morning. As the west southwest flow aloft strengthens, the surface lee troughing will also strengthen and the airmass will warm even more with downslope west winds. A weak cold front will slowly move south across our lower elevations east of Interstate 25, though will still be a relatively mild night for mid October.
Back to the east, temperatures will be a little cooler - lower to mid 70s.
Gusty northeast winds will develop and keep temps cooler through. Noticeably cooler and drier air will be felt behind this boundary, with L-M80s for maxes for all but the interior/southern CWA (U80s) under sunny to mostly sunny skies. A fairly large spread in min temps is expected tonight as stout winds moving over the still tepid Atlantic keep coastal areas up to 10F warmer (L70s) than inland (L-M60s) areas.
344 AM EDT Sun Oct 9 2016 The short term will be dry as an upper ridge builds across the southeast. 41 Mid level ridge axis will extend up Eastern Seaboard. while at the sfc a ridge will extend down the Appalachians into Ga as high pressure centers over New England.
Sprawling area of high pressure stretches from the Canadian Prairies into the lower Mississippi Valley early this morning and will gradually build into the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Monday. Dry airmass and building upper ridge will provide mostly sunny skies through most of the day.
Today Through Monday Night A big area of high pressure centered over the Great Lakes will build toward New England the next couple of days. The expanse of the high will blanket much of the eastern half of the country, and will keep Arkansas dry through the near term.
/Issued 342 PM CDT SAT OCT 8 2016/ Upper level trough expected to bring rain chances to most of the Panhandles evident on regional Water Vapor satellite imagery south of Arizona/New Mexico. The moisture plume associated with this trough has already spread over the Panhandles with echoes starting to be evident on local radar. Storms will be on the decline Sunday afternoon/evening as the upper trough becomes more positively tilted and starts to move east of the area.
Temperatures this afternoon range from the mid 60s to lower 70s in the wake of the cold front that passed through yesterday. Winds will then become light overnight as high pressure builds in from the north. Low temps tonight will be significantly cooler, dropping into the 40s.
High pressure will build from the Northwest Today, with drier air advecting in. The high pressure ridge will be to the North Monday, beginning a period of onshore flow.
312 AM EDT Sun Oct 9 2016 High pressure building down from Canada will bring cooler temperatures to NY and PA today.
319 AM MDT Sun Oct 9 2016 Upper level analysis has broad flat ridge over the western CONUS with trof across southwest Canada. At the surface, high pressure is located across Minnesota with low pressure across north central Montana. Temperatures at 3am across the CWA range from the 30s across central SD to the low 50s in Northeast WY. Dry weather will continue as upper ridge axis passes over the northern plains. Mid level flow will become southwesterly, and warmer air will advect into the region. Tight pressure gradient between exiting high in Minnesota and approaching low pressure in Montana will result in gusty southerly winds across central SD in the afternoon. Upper ridge will shift into the Great Lakes region as SW Canadian trof digs into the Northern Rockies.
A west-east oriented cold front remains situated to our north. Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees cooler on Monday. Gusty southwest winds will develop this afternoon in the higher elevations and continue ahead of the cold front through Monday.
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather once again today. Latest satellite images show a low pressure system around 35N/140W, or several hundred miles off the coast of southern CA. On Columbus Day, short-term models show this low moving onshore over the central CA coast and over our forecast area. This feature may produce enough instability for a few showers over the mountains, including the highest peaks of the Sierra Nevada, mainly around Kings Canyon and southward, as well as the Kern County mountains, especially around Frazier Park.
419 AM EDT Sun Oct 9 2016 A cold front will pass to the east today.
329 AM CDT Sun Oct 9 2016 Weak upper level ridging to build over the mid state through Monday. Looks like an influx of some high cloudiness by Mon nt as the aforementioned upper ridge shifts east and an impulse upstream approaches.
133 AM EDT Sun Oct 9 2016 High pressure over Missouri will continue to build across the region tonight.
A cooler and drier air mass will advect into the region from the northwest tonight and Wednesday.