Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
314 PM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018 A cold front was on the move again this afternoon as a second wave of low surface pressure continued to move northeastward across the PAH forecast area. The main mid level trof axis will pass through the PAH forecast area early Fri, delaying clearing of clouds somewhat. The front is progged to sink through our region Sat night, transferring the highest PoPs to the southern half. With time we will see a low amplitude NW flow pattern influenced by energy over the Pacific Northwest that will move southeast, and develop a s/wv trof that should be over the Upper Midwest by 00z Wed.
1229 PM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018 High pressure dominates the northern plains at this time. Precipitation develops along the lower level baroclinic zone from 925-850mb, firmly placed between todays high pressure system shifting to the central plains, and a cold high moving southeastward from south central Canada. Clouds and winds will be on the increase on Friday, especially in the afternoon hours ahead of a strong cold front moving through the area. Further to the east across southwest Minnesota, remaining snow cover and temperatures of 3-5 C will keep highs cooler. Strong cold front will move through the region Friday night.
/Issued 403 AM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018/ Upper trough to track south and east this morning out of the Rockies and into the Plains states.
Lows will be in the 20s to lower 30s at the lower elevations and in the teens in the mountains.
138 PM MST Thu Mar 29 2018 High pressure will build over the region for the remainder of the week supporting a gradual steady warming trend. Afternoon high temperatures near 90 degrees will be common across the lower deserts late in the week. Temperatures continue a slow warming trend with 80s across most of the lower desert this afternoon. High pressure ridge off of Baja coast will slowly nudge its way into the region, pushing heights up and leading to the gradual bump up in temps which will begin to approach the 90 degree level by this weekend.
Cold front translates east as well with the best coverage becoming positioned along and east of I-65 this evening.
As high pressure settles in by 12z Friday, it will be a race between lighter winds and clouds for any fog to develop. At the surface, high pressure centered over the forecast area in the morning will retreat eastward ahead of the next advancing perturbation/speed maxima.
1127 AM MDT Thu Mar 29 2018 Active northwest flow aloft between a central CONUS upper trough and eastern Pacific upper ridge. Skies were mostly cloudy with temperatures from the low 20s to low 30s. Good agreement with the short range model/ensemble guidance progging the upper trough to push east of the Mississippi River Valley Friday. The eastern Pacific upper ridge will drift east toward the West Coast during this time. It will be breezy to windy Friday as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold front.
238 PM EDT Thu Mar 29 2018 A cold front will move across Pennsylvania tonight and early Friday. A weak ridge of high pressure with cooler and drier conditions will build in for the start of the weekend.
The rapid cooling and snowfall expected from Essex to Marias Pass (6 to 9 inches total) may produce a dangerous flash freezing roadway scenario on Highway 2 for a time Friday late afternoon. Wind gusts to 40 mph will be common with this arctic-like blast, extending throughout the Highway 2 corridor Marias Pass to Flathead Valley and over Flathead Lake.
Temperatures will remain above freezing so rain will be the only precipitation type. Temperatures and dewpoints will be mostly in the 40s the entire period helping to melt the remaining snow which is mostly across the higher terrain in the eastern two thirds of the area.
546 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017 /12Z TAFS/ The main aviation concern is with the gusty north winds expected to occur in the wake of a cold frontal passage this afternoon. Winds will shift to the north with the cold frontal passage. Another cold front will push south across West Central Texas today and bring gusty winds from the north.
Strongest winds are expected from 9 am into the early afternoon, with the northwest counties favored for the highest gusts around 40 mph. Tonight, the sky will clear with high pressure and a decreasing wind.
A split flow trough pattern is developing across the center of the country with the sharper portion diving south from Canada into the upper Mississippi Valley. Amplification of both troughs will occur today which will send a cold front across the CWA tonight. The CWA will generally remain under troughing through the rest of this week and through the weekend. This will be the case due to the mid week trough's lack of progressiveness and a deep trough diving out of Canada into the eastern 1/4 of the CONUS this weekend.
Today will be mild ahead a cold front that will move through tonight. In general, expect lows to average in the low 30s, but normally colder valleys will be in the 20s. Clouds will increase tonight as a cold front pushes into the area. Temperatures falling below freezing and potential for light snow accumulation /melting- refreezing may create slick roads and areas of difficult travel late tonight into early Wednesday. An upper level trough will skirt just to the north of Pennsylvania early Wednesday.
Scattered light showers will end across northern Nevada this morning where cooler air will be slower to lift out of northern Elko County. Warmer and drier air will overspread the rest of the state later today into Wednesday as the upper ridge briefly reamplifies over Nevada.
High pressure will bring dry and warmer weather to the area Tuesday and Wednesday.
High pressure has begun to build into California from the south, bringing clearer skies and forcing the upstream atmospheric river northward. Warm temperatures with mainly dry weather are expected the next couple of days under strengthening high pressure. These forecast high temperatures are 5 to 10 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year, and may be within a couple of degrees of record high temperatures.
A cold front will bring gusty northerly winds to all TAF sites this morning. /issued 242 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017/ Main weather highlights today will be a wind shift associated with a cold front, and at least elevated fire weather conditions behind the front. will amplify as a trough moves across the Midwest and Great Lakes region. With a clear sky and dry air, temperatures will drop to or below freezing by sunrise.
241 AM PST Tue Nov 21 2017 Drier conditions will prevail through Wednesday night as high pressure builds overhead, with light rain possibly returning on Thanksgiving Day for northeast California and far northwestern Nevada. While this is a curious statistic, it doesn't mean much impact-wise as there is little to no forcing to squeeze out the high atmospheric moisture content. High pressure will strengthen over northeast CA and western NV through Wednesday, directing the storm track into the Pacific Northwest and keeping a very mild airmass over the region through Thanksgiving Day (and beyond).
Sfc flow will become gusty as a cold front moves thru the region. Temperatures will warm quickly after sunrise, ahead of an approaching cold front. The cool weather will be short-lived with a warming trend beginning Thanksgiving Day as upper ridging amplifies to the west and slowly shifts east through the weekend.
with high pressure nosing southward into the Plains region thru the day.
Gradient continues to tighten up between a strong ridge exiting to our east and an approaching cold front from the northwest. The increasing gradient has allowed for a nice range in temperatures across east Kentucky early this morning with decoupled eastern valleys sitting in the low to mid 20s and mixed ridges rising through the 40s. Surface moisture will also come up through the day and this could lead to a widely isolated shower in the vicinity of the higher peaks in southeast Kentucky (mainly Black Mountain). The models are in very good agreement regarding the cold frontal passage time and also in keeping eastern Kentucky dry tonight.
A cold front will move into the area later this evening and this may produce a couple of light rainshowers in the south. The boundary will push south across the area tonight with strong high pressure building in behind it.
A strong upper level high pressure ridge along the west coast continues to control the weather across our area with generally dry and mild conditions. The upper ridge is steering a fetch of mid and high level moisture across the region, creating a scattered to broken cloud deck overhead. Models handle the upper ridge similarly through the end of this week. Underneath this high pressure ridge, our temperatures will continue to warm, and afternoon highs will be in record territory on Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day. A more significant trough digging southward from the northeast Pacific will continue to suppress the ridge and shift it eastward through the end of the weekend. Patchy fog in the morning and hazy afternoon skies can still be expected in the San Joaquin Valley from today through the weekend under the influence of the upper ridge.
09z sfc map shows low pressure east of Dryden Ontario.
Surface analysis early this morning places a cold front from the Upper Midwest back through the Northern Plains while a ridge of high pressure is centered over North Carolina. Water Vapor satellite trends indicate some high clouds moving across the Lower Mississippi Valley this morning. This is associated with an upper level trough axis located across the region and upper level ridges over both the Western and Eastern United States.
607 AM MST Tue Nov 21 2017 Water vapor shows trof axis moving from the Dakotas into the upper Midwest, and upper ridge over the western CONUS. Short wave at the base of trof resulting in band of light snow shifting southward through the cwfa. At the surface, high pressure building into the Northern Plains early this morning with brisk northwest winds and much colder temps. Warm advection will return in earnest tonight as lee trof quickly advances into eastern MT/WY. Much warmer temps and dry conditions then expected Wednesday and Thanksgiving as upper ridge axis shifts eastward across the Northern Rockies/Plains.
Milder SE Flow should still be enough along with possibly a few sunny breaks to push temps into the lower to middle 70s and allow for enough instability for some embedded isolated storms. Winds shift back to the Northeast later tonight after first weak wave of low pressure passes off the coast.
/issued 406 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017/ Early morning sfc analysis shows high pressure holding on over the region, centered off the Carolina coast and ridging swwd to the wrn Gulf region. Meanwhile the system crossing the Great Lakes today is progged to drive our next cold front. No significant changes thereafter with our Thanksgiving weather still looking dry but chilly as nrly flow again develops aloft and high pressure builds over the region at the sfc. Morning wake up temps are expected to be around freezing across the nern 1/4 of the area, with readings in the mid/upper 30s elsewhere. In our progressive pattern, high pressure will quickly build past the region, allowing for a brief warmup before another front slides through over the weekend.
With the influx of much warmer air aloft tonight and clouds, low temperatures tonight will be above freezing in the mountains and may not dip lower than the 40s in valley locations. High temperatures on Wednesday will be 12 to 15 degrees warmer than normal as many locations will rise into the 50s. The cold front for Thanksgiving has been trending faster over the last few model runs so it may pass during the afternoon and evening rather than the overnight.
1008 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 A cold front will bring the next chance for precipitation tonight. While full dry adiabatic mixing is not really supported, a good deal of that momentum should be capable of mixing downward, thus wind gusts were increased into the range of 30 kts through the afternoon, with the highest values expected to the north and in the ridges. Fries Cold front will quickly swing through the area this evening and into the overnight hours. Minor snow accumulations are possible, but should be limited mainly to the I 80 corridor and ridges. High pressure will then ensure a dry midweek and Thanksgiving holiday, with sub average temperatures.
317 AM PST Tue Nov 21 2017 High pressure aloft will dominate the weather pattern through Thanksgiving weekend.
Surface analysis this morning shows the high pressure ridge axis nearly bisecting AL as it remains centered over Carolina coast line. West of I 65 has observed temps already in the low 30s. Our gradual warming trend will continue today as deeper southerly flow develops ahead of an approaching cold front, progged to pass through the region early Wednesday. Regardless of the warmer temps and slight moisture return from the south, ridging through around H7 along with a decent subsidence inversion in place will keep rain chances minimal. However, expect that feature to remain east of the CWA as the mid/upper level trough will swing through the area during the afternoon hours. Late Tuesday/early Wednesday timeframe will feature a dry cold front quickly shifting through the area, helping to reinforce some cooler than average temps.
Northerly sfc winds behind a cold front that will move through this afternoon to produce gusts between 20-25 kts at the NE OK sites. /Issued 240 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017/ Cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma around mid morning pushing south to near the Red River by late afternoon.
343 AM MST Tue Nov 21 2017 Moisture flowing the down the back side of the western ridge has led to orographic showers over the northern to central mountains early this morning. Dirty flow on the downstream side of the ridge continues into Wednesday and models want to keep some light precipitation over the northern mountains.
A cold front will bring breezy conditions to all sites this morning with speeds relaxing late this afternoon. /issued 343 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017/ The upper level ridge currently parked over the West Coast will continue to amplify today. High temperatures today and tomorrow will be slightly cooler than yesterday thanks to the cold front but, still warmer than typical November high temperatures. The warmer than normal high temperatures and continued dry environment will make for another elevated Fire Weather day.
High pressure slides southward across the region late this afternoon through tonight. An area of low pressure will cross the region on Wednesday with bring breezy southerly winds along with warmer temperatures.
649 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 A weak wave of low pressure will shift NE from the Gulf of Mexico to offshore the Carolinas, proving a slight chance of light rain this afternoon through early tonight.
The boundary will push south across the area tonight with strong high pressure building in behind it.
Strong cold air advection, and moisture dropping southward behind a cold front was causing snow showers to develop across the region as well. Temperatures ranged from the teens in the far north, to the lower to mid 30s in portions of northwest WI. The best chance of snow showers will be this morning, before the low pressure system pulls rapidly off to the east. High pressure will dominate the weather across the western Great Lakes late tonight and early Wednesday, but the next system will move in rapidly as the day wears on Wednesday.
The warm frontal precip has moved to the north of the region. The cold front approaches the coast this afternoon, with winds increasing through the day. The pressure gradient in the Shasta valley continues to indicate advisory winds later this morning into the evening, and strong southwest 700 mb winds over the east side should bring winds at the higher elevations up to advisory strength. However, the low fog and stratus underneath the strong surface inversion will slow the heating and the decoupled flow aloft will take a while to finally reach the surface and have hedged down the high temperatures a bit to account for this. The front stalls offshore and the bulk of the precip falls near the coast as this system is shunted the north as it hits the upper level ridge over the Pac NW.
Otherwise, light southeast winds this morning will veer to the north by this evening courtesy of a cold frontal passage. However, expect these lower clouds to eventually make it up our way this morning ahead of a cold front still making its way through the Southern Plains. The remainder of the forecast beyond tonight looks dry and quite seasonable for the most part, initially cooler than normal through Thanksgiving Day before a warming trend takes hold this weekend.
Clouds will increase tonight, as a cold front pushes into the area. GFS, NAM and EC all showing a band of 850-700mb fgen forcing within right jet entrance region, resulting in bulk of precip falling in colder air behind surface cold front. However, approach of high pressure and falling inversion heights should result in minimal accums early in the day across the western mountains. GEFS mean 8h temps between -4C and -9C should translate to highs from the low 30s across the high terrain of northwest Pa, to the upper 40s across Lancaster Co.
Early this morning, a cold front has begun to move into northwest Missouri. Behind the cold front, strong CAA will filter into the area as well as broken to overcast clouds. This will make for a much cooler day today with highs in the lower 40s across the north to the lower 50s further south. High pressure remains over the area Wednesday with little mixing keeping highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 40 55 35 / 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 39 53 35 / 10 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 58 39 53 34 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 39 53 28 / 10 10 0 0.
The cold front will retreat quickly this morning. Cold temps to start the day, and some remnant cloud cover will keep temps a bit cooler, with highs in expected in the 40s. Ridging aloft builds in fairly quickly, driving temps into the 60s for Wednesday, and a return of mainly dry conditions. Some moisture and energy will slide up the back side of the ridge Wednesday, bringing a chance of precip to the higher elevations.
This combined with the warm front lifting north will lead to scattered to numerous showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Area of showers ahead of the warm front over southwest and south central Florida early this morning will move north during the day so the best chances will reach central Florida around midday/early afternoon and then the Nature Coast this afternoon. Gradient will relax today as high pressure off the southeast U. East to southeast flow will shift to onshore across the central and southern waters as the warm front lifts north. Winds will remain rather light tonight through Wednesday then begin to increase as low pressure develops over the central gulf and moves east late in the week.
544 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 Increasing clouds today with a chance for a shower this afternoon as a cold front drops through the region.
Surface observations show this morning is much warmer than 24 hours ago with temperatures in the 30s and 40s due to cloud cover and a brisk 30kt LLJ. No significant weather or precipitation is expected over the next 7 days as a large trough remains in place over the eastern US keeping us in dry northwesterly flow aloft. A dry cold front will move across the area tonight into Wednesday, leading to much cooler high temperatures only reaching the 40s and lows dropping back into the 20s by Thanksgiving morning.
736 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 A cold front will bring the next chance for precipitation tonight. Surface winds will increase through the day with occasional strong gusts nearing 30mph as the low-level jet just above the inversion begins to mix down. Clouds will then begin to increase this evening, ahead of the cold front slated to arrive tonight. Cold front will quickly swing through the area this evening and into the overnight hours. Minor snow accumulations are possible, but should be limited mainly to the I 80 corridor and ridges. High pressure will then ensure a dry midweek and Thanksgiving holiday, with sub average temperatures.
This mesoscale activity is partly induced from a weak trough across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, which is producing strong convection with embedded thunderstorms northwest of our offshore gulf waters.
A cold front will move through central Indiana today, bringing a chance for rain and breezy conditions to parts of the area.
Southwest winds will become a bit breezy as a cold front approaches. Tonight expect an increase in cloud cover as a cold front passes through the region during the late evening hours. Despite the sunshine, temps will stay on the chilly side with highs in the low to mid 40s expected.
645 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 Three cold fronts cross through the Mid Atlantic region this week.
A surface cold front associated with this wave will quickly move southeast across southeastern Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks from late this morning into this afternoon. The 00Z GFS spits out some light QPF with this front late this morning and early this afternoon, however inspection of forecast soundings indicates that the low levels will be too dry to support a mention of rain showers. It looks like a rather chilly night under clear skies with lows dipping into the lower to middle 20s. These passing short waves will do nothing more than drag dry cold fronts through the region every three to four days.
No hazards are expected now through mid-week with the only weather highlight being a cold front passage today into early Wednesday. Present synoptic pattern per water vapor imagery and RAP analysis reveals a coupled longwave trough structure over the Great Lakes back to the SW towards the Rocky Mountains. Currently, the more prominent trough is over the Great Lakes with the Rocky Mountain trough in the process of amplifying further across the southern Plains and Texas. Expect cooler surface temperatures but plenty of sun on Wednesday as H925 and H850 temperatures fall. Highs will likely only reach into the low to mid 60s most locations with Hill Country spots remaining in the upper 50s.
However, expect these lower clouds to eventually make it up our way this morning ahead of a cold front still making its way through the Southern Plains. The remainder of the forecast beyond tonight looks dry and quite seasonable for the most part, initially cooler than normal through Thanksgiving Day before a warming trend takes hold this weekend.
Moisture is expected to continue to ride along the ridge through Wednesday, keeping showers possible. Models in decent agreement with the highest liquid amounts over the West Central and Boise Mountains of Idaho, and into Baker County of Oregon.
Eastern Kansas in an area of transition early this morning as weak surface trof bisects the area, with the next surface front on approach from the Dakotas into Nebraska. Daytime highs hold nearly steady to current temperatures with highs in the 40s, and overnight lows fall considerably as the cold advection and light wind settle in with lows forecast from the teens near the Nebraska border to the lower 20s along and south of I-35. Through the upcoming weekend, persistent northwesterly flow aloft between mean midlevel ridging over the central Great Basin and southwest states, and troughing over the East, should maintain dry conditions across the region. A couple of surface fronts are expected to cross the region for the mid/late week timeframe, in association with speed maxima traversing the flow aloft and cyclonic perturbations reinforcing the eastern states troughing.
703 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 High pressure will move off the coast today. A cold front will move through Wednesday morning.
High pressure will strengthen across the region today, and remain in place through the remainder of the week.