Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Current water vapor imagery shows an upper level low moving southward across MN. As the upper low moves southward today, best chance for light showers will continue to be across the east as models indicate. Temperatures begin to moderate on Wednesday as upper level ridging begins to build across the Dakotas and 925/850 mb temps begin to rise.
/issued 239 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017/ The upper level low dominating much of the CONUS weather pattern has moved only slightly southward into central MN this morning. Cyclonic flow was driving a cold front southward through the Rockies and Central Plains, and this feature was just entering the northern TX Panhandle as of this writing. The cold front will be moving through the forecast area this morning, bringing yet another chance of showers and thunderstorms to those who missed out yesterday. Enjoy the cool, somewhat damp day, because as the edge of a ridge starts to build in tomorrow, temperatures will rise quickly.
1210 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017 High pressure centered over Pennsylvania will move off the east coast tonight.
610 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017 WV imagery this morning showing an elongated upper level positive tilt trof stretching from eastern Canada all the way to the southwestern CONUS with embedded circulations. an upstream ridge oriented SW-NE situated from the CA coastline to central Canada.
High pressure ridge will bring mainly clear skies, dry conditions, and above average temperatures in the 60s and 70s for today.
Instability parameters are marginal at best, but the models hint at surface convergence and there will be an air mass change as the upper trough moves southeast through eastern Oregon. The lower conditions will return to the same areas Tuesday evening and will spread into the lower Umpqua Basin Tuesday night. The thermal trough pattern will strengthen with steep seas becoming very steep and gales developing south of Cape Blanco later this morning.
Patchy MVFR conditions continue across areas southeast of the cold front moving through the area today, but this is becoming less of an issue at the TAF sites with the arrival of the front. /issued 509 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017/ A cold front will move through the area this morning. Overall, cooler weather is expected the next couple of days, before warming significantly late this week as upper ridge moves over the Plains.
1032 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017 Weak high pressure resides over the area today. A low pressure system tracks southeast of Long Island late tonight into Wednesday morning.
High pressure will move later today. It will be breezy today across the James Valley as the pressure gradient steepens ahead of the approaching high pressure center. An upper low across southern Canada will pull a cold front through western North Dakota Wednesday Afternoon. Scattered showers will form along the cold front.
706 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017 High pressure centered over the upper Ohio Valley will move off the east coast later Today.
Regional radars support the short term guidance in keeping the higher coverage toward SE OK and eventually spreading into western AR later today.
703 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017 High pressure will result in a period of mainly dry weather through Wednesday.
06Z/12Z guidance including the HRRR indicates a few showers and a thunderstorm or two will be possible across mainly the southeast half of the area through the afternoon, before a lull in activity this evening ahead of the next rainmaker/approaching trough currently over the Southern Plains.
Expect another dry and hot day for inland areas today as the upper ridge axis begins to propagate eastward. Temperatures should be similar to yesterday just but just a few degrees cooler. Looking into the second half of the week, 500mb heights will fall as an upper low from the northwest breaks down the ridge of high pressure. There remains a slight chance for thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon as a weak closed low undercuts the upper ridge and becomes absorbed into the upper level flow. High pressure will build over the weekend as the upper trough tracks over the central United States.
Rains have ended across the forecast area with an upper level disturbance east of the area and a cold front now pushed south into the gulf waters. Rain chances return late that afternoon and through the evening hours as another cold front advances across the area. The main driver for the weather over the next several days is an upper level low over the central US. Cooler and drier air towards sunrise on Wednesday with temps falling into the 50s north of the I-10 corridor and 60s to the south.
1134 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017 Cold front extends from west central Illinois into south central Missouri late this morning. Cold front will very slowly progress southeastward through the day on Tuesday with a continued threat for precipitation. Highest chance of showers and storms because of the timing of the cold front will be across central portions of the forecast area. Coolest locations are expected to be across northwestern sections of the forecast area with highs in the low 60s and warmest areas including portions of southwest Illinois and southeast Missouri topping out in the low 70s. Gosselin Track of the upper low is a little further west today, with it moving down along the Mississippi River on Wednesday.
1000 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017 High pressure centered over the upper Ohio Valley will move off the east coast tonight.
High pressure will shift eastward across the Great Basin Today, then move off to the east Wednesday. A mid level ridge along the west coast this morning is inducing a dry northerly flow downstream across the forecast area. The first as an upper low approaching the British Columbia coastline, while further south another circulation is noted well off the Baja/southern California coast near 130W. The British Columbia low is forecast to dig southeast, eventually carving out a longwave trough across the interior Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies during the day Wednesday, with the associated cold front pushing into northern Utah by late afternoon. As this occurs, the mid level ridge along the Pacific Coast is forecast to shift east and weaken, allowing the southern low to lift northeast, eventually entraining into the larger scale trough.
528 AM MDT Tue May 23 2017 The low pressure system that was located over swrn Ontario yesterday, has dropped southward across Minnesota overnight and is expected to be located in central Iowa by this evening. Have also included a slight chance of showers in those areas until early aftn, although moisture is limited and will become drier this afternoon as the upper ridge builds in from the northwest. Southerly return flow will develop on Wednesday with much warmer temperatures.
1040 AM MDT Tue May 23 2017 Latest upper analysis shows the closed low moving northeast with a ridge approaching from the west. At the surface winds continue to increase as the low level jet over the forecast area begins to mix down to the ground. In fact the low level temperature field was cooler last night over Eastern Colorado and lows only fell into the mid 30s. A warm front will move through the forecast area from the west. At the start of the period, a closed low spins in southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The corresponding trough extends to the southwest of the low, leaving nearly zonal flow across the High Plains. Multiple disturbances pass through the trough during the extended as the low gradually moves across the US/Canadian border.
Shwrs/tstms develop and spread from w to e today, as a cold front moves across the terminals. /issued 306 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017/ Deep longwave trough developing across the middle portion of the country this morning associated with a well defined upper jet structure along the east, south and western flanks of this vigorous trough. The center of this closed low will slowly shift southward today into the Central Plains and as it does, a spoke of PVA will be exiting the OK/TX Pndl and into the Middle Red River Valley of Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas. Splitting upper jet structure in association with this wave in the trough will only serve to enhance upper level forcing as a strong surface cold front accompanies the feature aloft.
900 AM PDT Tue May 23 2017 Today will be another hot day in the valleys and deserts, while the coastal areas will be cooler due to a shallow marine layer.
Stronger westerly winds have begun to develop in the upper levels in response to the base of and upper trough moving in. Reasoning for this is the weak slow moving trough that is currently moving through the area this morning. As long as this trough exists to the west, the potential will exist for quick bursts of heavy rainfall. As the short wave moves through the base of the larger upper trough, it will begin to accelerate in direction to the northeast. As the short wave lifts north and east, the possibility of any severe weather will lower significantly late tonight and by 3am the cold front should start making its way through the area bringing chances of rain downward as well.
700 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017 Large upper low will move southward today along the eastern edge of the forecast area, with an attendant short wave in an east to west orientation moving through this morning. 0-1km ML cape is very minimal, and MU cape is all bottled up in the lowest kilometer with virtually none about 900mb. With a bit of gradient producing modest wind speeds, lows should stay in the lower to mid 40s.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 62 73 55 / 70 60 80 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 60 72 55 / 80 50 80 70 Oak Ridge, TN 74 60 73 55 / 70 60 70 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 71 57 71 54 / 90 40 80 70.
This low will track east and the light pcpn associated with it will end. Wl be hard to rule out an isolated aftn shower or thunderstorm across our CWA but the main rain chances will increase this evening ahead of the next approaching low pressure system. Then as a low pressure system over the Midwest swings southward, a cold front will be pushed through the forecast area this evening into tonight. /NF/ Wednesday through Memorial Day: A cold front will be in the process of exiting the eastern half of the forecast area Wednesday morning. This is due to the closed low continuing to swing east southeast from the Mid-South region through the Tennessee Valley, squeezing out any lingering moisture across the region in the process.
748 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017 A weak frontal boundary stalls south of the area today while high pressure builds to the north. By tonight, a wave of low pressure will move along the frontal boundary south of the region.
636 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017 A sfc cold front extends for central IA into eastern KS. An upper low over centered over the Midwest will move south into northeast MO by 12z/7am Wed. Wednesday: The closed upper low over MO will move sse into TN by Wed night.
612 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017 Deep upper level trough stretching from Minnesota back across the CONUS into the desert SW this morning. Surface map also has an elongated trough from weak low pressure center over southern WI. Cold front across the center of the country back into the Southern Plains. A weak pressure gradient with the actual trough has light and somewhat variable winds over the region. Overnight the lingering showers and thunderstorms will also limit the drop of temps behind the cold front passage, although the winds will come around to more northerly. Wednesday expected to be cloudy and cooler behind the cold front. with low pops for scattered showers again as the upper low is very slow to move out of the region. Models having a hard time with the evolution of the low beyond midweek still.
Deep upper level trough stretching from Minnesota back across the CONUS into the desert SW this morning. Surface map also has an elongated trough from weak low pressure center over southern WI. Cold front across the center of the country back into the Southern Plains. A weak pressure gradient with the actual trough has light and somewhat variable winds over the region. Overnight the lingering showers and thunderstorms will also limit the drop of temps behind the cold front passage, although the winds will come around to more northerly. Wednesday expected to be cloudy and cooler behind the cold front. with low pops for scattered showers again as the upper low is very slow to move out of the region. Models having a hard time with the evolution of the low beyond midweek still.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and into tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. The passage of the cold front tonight will usher in drier/quieter period of weather for the area through the rest of the week. 41 Showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon through tonight ahead of an approaching cold front which should push off the coast late tonight/early Wednesday morning.
1218 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017 High pressure will provide a dry Tuesday with seasonal temperatures, but unsettled weather will return on Wednesday. Model solutions have had substantial difficulty over the past few days managing the depiction of the digging and deepening of the mid/upper lower from the upper Mississippi Valley toward the Ohio Valley.
932 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017 High pressure will provide a dry Tuesday with seasonal temperatures, but unsettled weather will start to return on Wednesday. In general, a partly sunny forecast was thus featured, except in the ridges and points nearby where clouds may be a bit thicker. Model solutions have had substantial difficulty over the past few days managing the depiction of the digging and deepening of the mid/upper lower from the upper Mississippi Valley toward the Ohio Valley.
635 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017 Water vapor imagery early this morning indicated a well-defined upper low across northern Minnesota. The upper low will move southward across Minnesota and Iowa today and into the Mid- Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. A few showers may linger on Wednesday before the upper low slides south and east of the area. However, temps will remain on the cool side with highs in the low to mid 60s.
1004 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017 High pressure gives way to a low pressure system moving south and east today and tonight.
553 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 High pressure today exits tonight. Low pressure drags a cold front across Monday night, followed by arctic air for mid week. Otherwise, gradual clearing today, with warmer temperatures with ample sunshine expected. Most locations should top out in the lower to upper 20s. An upper level low pivots through the midwest and Great Lakes states this period. A lead short wave trough rotating around it, and associated low pressure system tracking north of the area, could push light snow into the middle Ohio Valley on Monday.
939 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 Light lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes will end this morning as high pressure builds into the Lower Great Lakes.
With a ridge of high pressure west of New Mexico, today's high temperatures will generally be a few to several degrees warmer than yesterday.
608 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 Arctic high pressure builds in from the northwest today, then tracks east to a position over eastern Canada Monday.
926 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 High pressure will build southeast across the area today and move northeast to Maine by this evening extending a ridge southwest into the local area.
An upper level trough will bring increasing high clouds through the afternoon. Temperatures are on track to reach the lower to mid 30s across most of the Valley.
A cold front will arrive to northern Oklahoma early Monday morning bringing winds to the north.
The cold front along its southern flank surged well into the western Caribbean overnight, bringing with it cooler, drier weather and gusty northerly breezes. Temperatures bottomed out in the lower to mid 50s across the island chain and have not recovered much since then. We made some minor wind tweaks and lowered highs in the Lower Keys to the mid 60s, no other forecast changes needed.
Additional low lying locations remain in the fog threat this morning, especially the Lower Treasure Valley and portions of eastern Oregon (Burns and Baker City). Dry conditions expected today under the ridge, with the threat of fog returning again tonight. The next forecast challenge is the arrival of the cold front/trough on Monday night.
As this process takes place, a strong cold front will dive south towards the forecast area, arriving during the day Monday. Much of this appears to be overdone as much of the low-level moisture will mix east ahead of the front and we never really saturate the layer from the top down. Temperature profiles by the time this could develop will be below freezing so freezing drizzle or perhaps a few flakes of snow may develop but chances look to be so slim that a dry forecast will continue.
A short wave in the NW flow is situated over AR/MO/NB for the most part and should be clouds only for us, although the high resolution ECMWF has a few hundreths of QPF over SE AR/NE LA while other models remain dry including the HRRR. The cold front will shift our winds to North by late afternoon in SE OK and then across I-30 by early to mid evening.
Latest satellite imagery continues to show stratus clouds across the Northern Rockies and some very light rain/freezing rain is being reported near the Flathead valley this morning. High pressure will continue to build over the region today and breaks in the cloud cover will be possible in some areas this afternoon.
956 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 Canadian high pressure will settle over the eastern U. A clipper system will bring a cold front through the area Tue night. Low pressure will develop offshore Wed or Thu followed by moderating temperatures and high pressure for the late week. Canadian high pressure will continue to settle overhead today. High pressure will remain overhead tonight. There will be some high clouds ahead of an upper-level trough over the Great Lakes into the southeastern CONUS. A potent northern stream system will cause upper-level low pressure to dig into the northern Plains and western Great Lakes Monday. This will continue to carve out an upper-level trough to our west.
635 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 Arctic high pressure builds over the area today, then moves north tonight into Monday.
745 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 High pressure will maintain dry but cold weather today.
941 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 High pressure will shift off to the east of the region today. High pressure will shift off to the east of the region today. Highs will range from the upper teens north to the lower 20s south. The lowest temperatures tonight will be across eastern portions of the forecast area where there will be less cloud cover early in the evening and also where there is the greater snowpack.
308 AM PST Sun Jan 14 2018 High pressure over the region will keep dry weather and milder than normal afternoon temperatures across much of the central California interior through Monday while low clouds persist in the San Joaquin Valley.
637 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 Dry and cool Canadian high pressure will build across the region through Monday.
Temps range from the single numbers near Paris to the lower 20s across the Delta.
841 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018 A cold front and associated snow are quickly pushing south across the area. A cold front across southern Saskatchewan and Alberta as of 09 UTC ahead of the next Arctic high pressure system will rapidly propagate from north to south across western and central North Dakota through the morning.
High amplitude upper ridging is shifting east into the Great Basin this morning as upstream Pacific frontal system approaches.
A more organized low across central Manitoba has a cold front extending southwest near the MT/ND/Canadian border. The highly meridional pattern in place at the beginning of the period will gradually break down as energy over the Pacific Ocean sweeps away the western conus ridge.
With the highly amplified synoptic weather pattern over the large-scale region, moisture, arriving from the lee side of the Canadian Rockies, is interacting with the warm front approaching from the west. As it does, it will encounter the warmer surface temperatures and mix with rain through the mid day hours - mainly near and west of the U-L bend of Fort Peck Lake. Very isolated higher amounts up to 3 or 4 inches might be possible in the higher elevations of western Garfield County but impacts are expected to be minimal. Tonight, that precipitation will quickly diminish and move away toward the southwest as the clearing cold front rushes back over the region from the northeast.
For the rest of the day it will be dry as a sfc lee trough is in place near the foothills. This will allow for downslope low level flow with warmer temps across nern CO. By tonight a cold front will move across the plains with upslope component developing overnight. A strong upper low/trough over the Great Lakes will bring a shallow cold airmass and northerly upslope flow for the plains and foothills of the CWA Monday and Monday evening.
Dry air in the lower levels has been preventing snow from reaching the surface. Otherwise, expect a warmer day areawide with 40s returning this afternoon for most areas outside of northwest AR.
650 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 High pressure will shift off to the east of the region today. The lowest temperatures tonight will be across eastern portions of the forecast area where there will be less cloud cover early in the evening and also where there is the greater snowpack.
1019 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 Arctic high pressure builds to the north into Monday.
1006 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 A large mid/upper-level trough remains over much of the central and eastern U. High pressure to the north of the region will keep a north to northeast wind flow in place across the waters through the next few days.
213 AM PST Sun Jan 14 2018 High pressure will remain over the area through the weekend leading to a continuation of above normal temperatures and dry weather.
656 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 Light lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes will end this morning as high pressure builds into the Lower Great Lakes.
Dry and mild conditions will give way to a cold front that will speed south through the region later this morning through tonight.
1012 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 Dry and cool Canadian high pressure will build across the region through Monday.
Morning temp just dipped to freezing shortly after sunrise at JAX while farther inland across parts of SE GA and the Suwannee River Valley of NE FL min temps fell into the upper 20s to near 30.
405 PM CDT Wed Sep 27 2017 Beautiful early fall weather continues across the region, under the influence of a broad area of high pressure. With decent mixing expected, high temperatures will be mild, in the low to mid 70s. Strong trough digging into the northern Great Lakes on Thursday night will help to reinforce the dominance of the northern branch of confluent flow across the region, and will drive a backdoor boundary poised from eastern SD to southwest MN southward overnight.
Kept the higher pops across the western CWA tonight as mid level drying is expected across the eastern CWA. This is in response to mid level high pressure, currently centered over the NW Gulf, moving slightly farther west tonight/Thu. Kept the highest rain chances across the western CWA tonight and Thu due to continued deeper moisture and proximity to embedded upper level short wave, however QPF values are expected to be much less by Thu. Therefore, kept a 20 pop across the east and over the gulf waters despite the high pressure/drying aloft. Cooler temps expected tonight through Thu night due to the clouds and abundant moisture.
318 PM MDT Wed Sep 27 2017 Upper level low is spinning over northern Arizona this afternoon, and will lift slowly northeast tonight and Thursday. In the mountains, we did lower the snow levels a bit more based on the cold core of the upper level low nudging toward the forecast area.