Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
241 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Strong upper low is pushing along the MT/ND/Canada border. Surface analysis showing high pressure quickly building across the region. Dry weather will continue Sunday as high pressure crosses the region. Rockies high pressure ridge will remain southwest of the region, with the northern plains on the northern periphery with fast flow aloft. This will support periodic disturbances into the area as general east upslope flow remains in place in the low levels.
320 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016 The major concern for this afternoon/evening, as has been well- advertised, is the threat for more severe storms as the primary upper wave and approaching cold front interact with a very unstable airmass with sufficient deep layer shear for supercells. As a closed upper low moves into Ontario, one more cold front will move through the forecast area.
Patchy fog development will be possible late in the period across parts of NE OK should the lower clouds begin to break. /ISSUED 341 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016/ An upper low over Texas will continue to move slowly south over the next couple days. A cold front will sweep across the area Saturday, and its passage will bring an end to the prolonged period of unsettled weather we have seen.
Mostly clear skies continue across Northern California with an amplifying ridge of high pressure across the Western US. Temperatures are running considerably warmer than yesterday, as the marine layer has nearly vanished.
Atlantic high pressure will continue to ridge into the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend, with winds and seas remaining below headline criteria.
Low pressure will cross the E Dakotas today /currently stretching from SW SD through N Central SD and Central ND/ will slowly slide E and consolidate over N MN this evening. Most fcst solutions concur on the idea of a sizable break to the wet weather from around 16-19Z, before daytime heating and influence of the 500MB trough over E ND allow for more widespread shower and thunderstorms to develop once again over the E half of the forecast area. Kept the mention of a few stronger showers and thunderstorms in the HWO along near the exiting cold front.
an upper low remained across Central/Eastern Texas while a second upper low with an associated frontal boundary dropped east southeast into the Northern High Plains. Southerly upper level flow on the eastern side of the Texas upper low continued to stream moisture into Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. the upper low in Texas is expected to begin to sag southward as it gets a push from the upper low over the Northern High Plains.
High pressure will remain in place across the region through the upcoming weekend resulting in dry and increasingly warm conditions. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are in place across much of Utah and southwest Wyoming this morning, with a ridge of high pressure amplifying over the Great Basin. Dry, stable conditions will continue under this ridge through today and the weekend, with temperatures rising from "above normal" to "much above normal.
845 AM PDT FRI JUN 3 2016 High pressure aloft will bring hot weather inland today and Saturday with temperatures some 15 to 20 degrees above average. The marine layer and onshore flow will keep coastal areas cooler with areas of night and morning low clouds and fog.
947 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016 Slow moving cold front will keep in the risk for showers and storms mainly south and east of Pittsburgh this afternoon. Rain will return once again on Saturday as low pressure will keep most of the weekend wet. Most showers with wave are now east of the ridges. Do expect scattered showers and storms to re-fire this afternoon east of Interstate 79 and south of State Route 422 with best pops toward the ridges.
745 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016 Moisture will circulate into the forecast area on the backside of high pressure centered off the southeast coast and ahead of a cold front slowly approaching from the west.
Overall, expect the coverage of afternoon showers and storms will be less than yesterday but still have 30-50 PoPs this afternoon with best coverage across the higher elevations where the terrain will supply additional lift. Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 70 86 69 / 40 30 70 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 67 85 67 / 50 40 60 70 Oak Ridge, TN 86 67 85 68 / 50 40 70 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 64 84 65 / 50 40 50 60.
Some dry air was wrapping into the low and causing some partial clearing of low clouds. The upper level flow around a developing ridge over the southwest states will force our low pressure system and associated showers and storms south of the area Saturday.
918 AM PDT FRI JUN 3 2016 The coastal marine layer will persist with high pressure overhead into Saturday for fair skies inland and hot conditions.
Overall dry and relatively stable today with a few light rain showers in the high country this afternoon. Upper level trof will sweep across the Northern high plains today with an associated weak cold front which will move across the Northeast plains of Colorado this morning. An upper ridge over the western states and an upper trough over the Great Lakes region will put north-northwest flow over the state this weekend. A cold front will bring cooler surface temperatures Saturday along with stability to the plains. Some instability over the high terrain will allow for diurnal convection.
As any remaining thunderstorms diminish overnight, some breaks in cloud cover may result in patchy fog formation with the low dewpoint depressions and moist topsoils (where rain occurs). One challenge within the mesoscale environment and potential for vort maxes ejecting off TX upper low as it moves south is the possibility that a couple of rounds of storms may occur.
/Issued 407 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016/ Latest WV satellite imagery shows well-defined (nearly cut-off) upper level low spinning across central Texas. Northern stream energy diving across Montana and the Dakotas will be our next weather maker this weekend as upr trough digs across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region. In response to these two upper level features, a sub-tropical ridge of high pressure will build slightly across the Southeast region today and tonight. Northern branch of upper level trough begins to merge with southern stream energy, resulting in a pronounced southwest flow across the area. High temps will be several degrees cooler than today due to more clouds and potential coverage of showers/storms. Midwest trough will begin moving east as a Canadian short wave drops into the trough.
625 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016 325 AM CDT Weak high pressure over the region this morning will move slowly east today with light gradient expected to allow a healthy lake breeze to develop this afternoon. Cold front will move across the area Saturday night bringing an end to precip chances and ushering in a cooler and drier air mass.
912 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016 12Z sounding this morning showed warmer temperatures aloft with the freezing level climbing to over 14. It will be hot and humid today with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat indices around 100 degrees.
The cold front is steadily moving south across Wyoming early this morning. Temps will certainly be cooler today in the post frontal environment, perhaps as much as 10F cooler across portions of the Nebraska panhandle. Saturday will be dry and continued cooler as high pressure builds into the forecast area both at the sfc and aloft.
1135 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016 Slow moving cold front will keep in the risk for showers and storms mainly south and east of Pittsburgh this afternoon. Rain will return once again on Saturday as low pressure will keep most of the weekend wet. Most showers with wave are now east of the ridges. Do expect scattered showers and storms to re-fire this afternoon east of Interstate 79 and south of State Route 422 with best pops toward the ridges.
649 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016 Widely scattered SHRA continues to rotate north up into the state due to the upper level low across central TX. Ascent associated with the upper level low has kept widespread showers over the state during the overnight. the cutoff upper level low should retreat back to the south along the Texas coastline as another storm system moves across the northern Plains. This second system will help drive a a stronger cold front through the state late on Saturday.
413 AM PDT FRI JUN 3 2016 Upper level high pressure will strengthen through the end of the week with hot temperatures away from the coast into Saturday.
Forecast area currently resides between an upper low spinning over Texas and an upper-level ridge axis over Georgia/South Carolina. Temperatures have warmed quickly this morning into the low to mid 80s as of 10 AM due to plenty of sunshine with a cumulus field just now starting to develop. Relatively greatest chances of scattered convection will be across West Alabama today where the highest PW values will be as mid and upper level flow gradually strengthens ahead of the Texas upper low. Further east chances will be more isolated closer to the upper ridge and where drier air is expected to mix down causing a decrease in dewpoints.
1234 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016 High pressure will maintain light winds through the TAF period. These clouds will be more widespread in and around MBS due to the heating off the higher terrain to the north and enhanced lake breeze convergence off Saginaw Bay. * None SE Michigan remains positioned within the southern expanse of broad high pressure centered across central Ontario over the next 24 hours. Overall thermal profile across the top of the mixed layer /850-800 mb/ roughly 2-3 degrees cooler than readings noted yesterday. This favors high temperatures arriving a touch cooler today under full insolation, with readings generally in the vicinity of 80 degrees.
728 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016 Slow moving cold front will keep in the risk for showers and storms through much of the day. Rain will return once again on Saturday as low pressure will keep most of the weekend wet.
1249 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016 Moisture will circulate into the forecast area on the backside of high pressure centered off the southeast coast and ahead of a cold front slowly approaching from the west.
/issued 350 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): Closed low spinning over Central Texas to track steadily South the next 24-48 hours moving over Deep South Texas. Models suggest a little less mid level moisture in the region since we are on the south side of the low which might reduce overall coverage of thunderstorms today. Eastern areas will see the best chances as the low gradually moves south and better moisture convergence develops along the low pressure trough axis that splits the CWA. As the low approaches and moves over our region tonight and Saturday the combination of increasing upper support/diffluence, cold pool aloft and deepening moisture should lead to likely to widespread convection. Lows will fall once again into the lower 70s maybe the upper 60s northern reaches due to rain cooled air.
A high pressure ridge is building over Central and Southwest Montana and the airmass will be warm and dry today.
The central peninsula remains under the influence of broad ridging through the column. As noted by the morning shift, cannot justify PoPs much different than yesterday, especially considering there has been slight amplification of the mid/upper level ridging. Slightly warmer mid level temps and weaker lapse rates should mitigate the threat for strong to marginally severe storms. Atlantic ridge axis across central Florida will gradually shift southward through the weekend as trough aloft drives a weak cold front into the southeast United States.
Water vapor imagery shows the upper low near Austin with vorticity lobe rotating south-southeast through the Hill Country. The vertically stacked low is expected to drift south tonight and be south of San Antonio by 12z Saturday maintain the threat for locally heavy rainfall near and to the east of the low.
An inverted trough is beginning to set up over Middle Tennessee that extends from a strengthening surface & upper low centered over Texas.
A building upper ridge will bring sunny skies, and warm temperatures several degrees from yesterday.
1113 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016 Moisture will circulate into the forecast area on the backside of high pressure centered off the southeast coast and ahead of a cold front slowly approaching from the west.
Subsidence from the building upper ridge likely the main reason. Broad upper level ridging across much of the srn U.
For Saturday, an approaching low pressure system will turn winds more southerly.
801 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 High pressure will build into the area overnight and Saturday. Water vapor imagery showing short wave pushing eastward into the eastern great lakes while surface analysis has cold front moving through the Ohio valley. Visible satellite indicating diminishing trends in stratocu cloud cover and expect this to continue as high pressure builds into the region.
846 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 Weak cold front brings isolated showers or storms this afternoon.
/issued 214 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016/ A midlevel ridge is centered over TX to dominate our weather through this holiday weekend.
Convective chances are once again limited on Saturday as the dry stable air mass will remain across most of Southeast Oregon and Southwest Idaho, except along the Nevada border and the higher terrain north of Baker City and McCall.
for 06z aviation discussion below With high pressure overhead this afternoon, abundant sunshine, light winds, and dry air remain in place across the Upper Midwest this afternoon. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the lower Great Lakes on westward to southern Minnesota and then curve down into Nebraska.
1139 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 A cold front will pass over the area overnight into early Saturday, before stalling across North Carolina.
/issued 226 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016/ We are getting to the summer doldrums which means high pressure is the dominant weather feature. All models are showing an upper high either overhead or very close by giving us hot and mostly dry weather with the exception of a few storms mainly over the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains.
929 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through the weekend while a weak trough develops inland.
718 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 A pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through Independence Day. A weak pressure trough will linger in the forecast area. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s. The models displayed surface ridging extending from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico. North of the ridge a frontal zone was shown remaining north of the forecast area with weak lee- side troughing in the area. Expect thunderstorms mainly associated with heating and convergence into the trough or into a possible seabreeze front that may move well inland. Leaned toward the higher high temperature guidance because of the recent bias. The GFS and ECMWF displayed surface ridging extending from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through the medium-range period.
842 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016 Surface analysis as 0f 8:30 PM places a cold front just south of the MEG CWA. Surface analysis this afternoon places a weak cold front from Huntingdon, Tennessee back through central Arkansas.
917 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 A warm front will lift across the region tonight followed by a cold front on Saturday.
Synoptic pattern keeps some weak troughing at 500 mb with onshore flow in place through much of the long holiday weekend.
These clouds are associated with an upper level trough moving into british columbia and the pacific northwest over the weekend.
1253 AM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through the weekend while a weak trough develops inland.
905 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 An area of high pressure resides over the Western Atlantic Ocean this evening. The axis of the ridge will stretch across South Florida and near the Keys. The Atlantic ridge will be the main player in the forecast with a brief interaction with a TUTT, Tropical Upper level Tropospheric Trough, that will pass across Cuba, well south of the Keys area Saturday and Saturday night. The chance for lifting will be better during this time and hence the higher chance of showers. Thereafter the Atlantic ridge, and an upper level ridge will dominate the forecast with drier air.
801 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 as expansive high pressure over the Upper Mississippi Valley will gradually build across the Ohio Valley. Cold front will continue to cross the region early this evening with a few isolated thunderstorms that will diminish with the loss of daytime heating this evening. the cold front will exit the region while expansive high pressure over the Upper Mississippi Valley will gradually make its way across the mid Western states. the large area of high pressure centered over the Mid Western states will expand across the Lower Great Lakes. A slow moving 500mb low over Quebec and ridging over the Northern Plains states will yield a confluent flow over the Lower Great Lakes region through the remainder of the extended Independence Day Holiday weekend.
A midlevel trough with its axis across eastern Utah this evening continues to slowly exit the area this evening. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to focus across far southeastern portions of the forecast area near the trough axis for the next few hours. Although a ridge is building into the western Great Basin, a convective complex currently moving south across southern Nevada has its eastern periphery into far west-central and southwest Utah.
735 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 A cold front will push southeast of the region this evening, allowing showers and thunderstorms to come to an end. High pressure will build into the Great Lakes, offering dry weather Saturday.
Upper ridge continues to keep convection well to the northwest-northeast of the area with large-scale subsidence over north Texas. /ISSUED 336 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016/ Upper level high pressure will remain in place across the region through Saturday and result in seasonably hot and rain-free weather. There are some subtle weather changes expected late in the holiday weekend as a short wave trough and cold front enters the region from the west.
744 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 A pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through Independence Day. A weak pressure trough will linger in the forecast area. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s. The models displayed surface ridging extending from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico. North of the ridge a frontal zone was shown remaining north of the forecast area with weak lee- side troughing in the area. Expect thunderstorms mainly associated with heating and convergence into the trough or into a possible seabreeze front that may move well inland. Leaned toward the higher high temperature guidance because of the recent bias. The GFS and ECMWF displayed surface ridging extending from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through the medium-range period.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 93 68 96 / 10 10 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 89 65 92 / 10 10 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 68 89 66 92 / 10 10 10 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 86 61 89 / 10 20 20 50.
An upper level low in the Gulf of Alaska is expected to move east into southern British Columbia during the Independence Day holiday weekend. Satellite imagery shows an upper low in the Gulf of Alaska near 55N/149W with westerly flow aloft running under the low.
Tried to blend the higher PoPs where I could see the best near and short term model consensus and felt it was warranted to include mention of sprinkles around those areas to account for the model uncertainty. the models are very similar in the location of the low and the general areas of the showers and thunderstorms. As the low deepens east of the Rocky Mountain Front from Montana into Wyoming on Saturday, there's a better chances of showers and thunderstorms, with strong storms producing gusty winds.
High pressure aloft will keep central and southwest Montana mostly clear to partly cloudy tonight.
649 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016 /00Z TAFS/ A large upper ridge will remain centered over the southern plains through Saturday. The upper ridge will keep all disturbances and associated convection shunted northwest to northeast of all the airports.
/Issued 312 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016/ Upper level high will translate across the panhandles through tonight. This will allow an upper level short wave trough to move across the region on Saturday and Saturday night.
for 00z Aviation discussion below With high pressure overhead this afternoon, abundant sunshine, light winds, and dry air remain in place across the Upper Midwest this afternoon. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the lower Great Lakes on westward to southern Minnesota and then curve down into Nebraska.
S/SW flow continues across the area with high pressure ridging across southern Florida. An upper trough will move over the state overnight and keep a few showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for the northern zones overnight. Temps are on track to fall into the lower to mid 70s inland, mid 70s to around 80 near the coast.
920 PM PDT FRI JUL 1 2016 Main thunderstorm complex developed over the higher terrain of central NV and propagated southward into southern NV this evening. Hohmann An upper low will continue to bring the threat for thunderstorms Saturday before drier conditions return for the remainder of the holiday weekend. /Issued 225 PM PDT FRI JUL 1 2016/ An upper low approaching the Sierra will bring thunderstorms this evening main to areas southeast of I-80. The low only slowly pulls east Saturday with more storms possible. If anything, it looks less, and more confined to the southeast as warmer air aloft moves in over the Sierra Front.
954 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 High pressure will build into the Great Lakes, offering dry weather Saturday.
828 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will exit this evening as a cold front finishes moving through the area.
1018 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 A pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through Independence Day. A weak pressure trough will linger in the forecast area. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s. The models displayed surface ridging extending from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico. North of the ridge a frontal zone was shown remaining north of the forecast area with weak lee- side troughing in the area. Expect thunderstorms mainly associated with heating and convergence into the trough or into a possible seabreeze front that may move well inland. Leaned toward the higher high temperature guidance because of the recent bias. The GFS and ECMWF displayed surface ridging extending from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through the medium-range period.
840 PM MST FRI JUL 1 2016 A combination of lingering monsoon moisture and weak weather disturbances moving eastward across the desert southwest will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight across southwest and south-central Arizona, and on Saturday, over the higher terrain of eastern Arizona.
809 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 A lee trough resides across the Piedmont this afternoon will slide east this evening. A cold front will approach from the northwest late this afternoon, and pass over the area overnight into early Saturday, before stalling across North Carolina.