Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This trough will move into the Four Corners region by Monday morning and then continue to push into the southern High Plains by Monday afternoon. Temperatures on Monday will generally range from the lower 60s across our northern zones to the lower 70s across our southern and eastern zones.
Temperatures in the island communities are in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees, and dew points in the low 60s. Meanwhile, a low pressure off Jacksonville is causing cloudy conditions across most of the Sunshine State.
1246 PM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021 High pressure off the northeast coast will keep dry conditions over the Ohio Valley through Monday.
Temperatures tonight will remain elevated in the upper 30s and lower 40s from east central MN across west central WI where cloud cover will persist for much of the overnight hours, while western areas cool into the low to mid 30s as clearing ensues in the wake of the front.
420 PM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021 High pressure centered near the New England Coast will extend a ridge of high pressure west over the local area through Monday. A warm front will lift north across the area Monday.
139 PM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021 Despite core placement now off eastern seaboard, strong high pressure continues to influence the airspace well through the next TAF period with abundant dry air through the column leading to SKC at least through this evening. * None Deep layer stability held firm within a steadily increasing upper height field and general low level ridging ensures another day of benign weather conditions today. The resident above average thermal profile trending warmer thanks to the underlying increase in mean thicknesses and advent of modest warm air advection in low level south flow. Similar environmental conditions in place Monday, although increasing depth to the south-southwest flow as the upper ridge axis eases eastward allows for an uptick in the advective process.
As the upper level ridge continues moving east, onshore flow will slightly strengthen while ushering in more moisture and advecting warmer air. As a cold front approaches South Texas, it will eject a pre-frontal trough ahead of the cold front tomorrow night. With an increase in moisture and the pre-frontal trough, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible tomorrow night, mainly across the northern half of the CWA and the Coastal Bend. With onshore flow advecting warmer air into South Texas, high temperatures should get into the mid 70s near the coast with mid to upper 80S out west.
A positively tilted trough of low pressure extended from northeastern Montana, southwest into northern Utah and central California. East of this feature, a ridge extended from Northeastern Texas into central Illinois. At the surface, a cold front had passed through the forecast area earlier this morning and currently was oriented from northeastern South Dakota into south central Nebraska and far southwestern Kansas. For tonight, the southern portion of the H5 trough will consolidate as a closed area of low pressure over the Four Corners. Good deformation on the northern and northwestern portion of the low will develop, spreading precipitation into eastern Nebraska. no arctic air is available in this system, feel the NAM12 soln is too cool and have opted for the warmer GFS soln.
358 PM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021 High pressure now centered over the northeastern CONUS continues to bring benign weather conditions over the region today. Slight boost in warm thermal advection with the passage of the mid level ridge axis over the central Great Lakes. This brings temperatures at 850 mb into the 1-4C range this afternoon, which is translating to surface temperatures this afternoon that are climbing well above normal into the low to mid 60s for most locations. A warmer start to the morning will aid high temperatures on Monday coming in slightly higher compared to Sunday.
Temperatures have climbed into the low to mid 60s early this afternoon and we could see an additional degree or two warming before the day is done. A cold front, extending back to the southwest from a low pressure center in Canada and extending back to the southwest to the deepening lee trough, will approach northwest Missouri tonight before stalling as the parent low lifts off to the northeast.
205 PM MDT Sun Mar 21 2021 Lingering snow shower activity will continue across the area as tiny areas of vorticity in conjunction with the trough axis draped across the CWA allows for lift.
Continued quite weather pattern tonight and Monday as mid level ridge axis will be over the forecast area tonight and then shifting slightly east on Monday. At the surface, the low level ridge axis just east of the forecast area resulting in a mainly light to moderate northeasterly flow this morning transitioning to more easterly at times this afternoon through early Monday, then becoming more southeasterly by the end of day on Monday as a storm system develops over the plains states. On Monday, highs mainly in the lower 70s except for a few upper 60s along the immediate coast as the developing onshore flow results in slightly cooler temperatures there.
1246 PM CDT Sun Mar 21 2021 We'll see a cold front track across the forecast area from northwest to southeast. Cooler high temperatures in the upper 50s are expected across our northwestern zones where the front will pass through earlier in the day. Any precipitation should hold off until tonight on the back side of the cold front. A closed upper low will tap into gulf moisture and bring widespread steady rainfall to our area as the low passes just to our southeast.
1239 PM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021 A high pressure area will bring another day with sunny skies and mild temperatures. Winds will increase as the high pressure area moves farther away from the area.
High pressure will remain in control for the weather at the surface with ridging aloft for much of the period. Moisture aloft and surface humidities will start gradually increasing tonight ahead of an approaching trough.
It's not a huge deal at this hour, but current temps in the lower 60s are running about 2-4 degrees below what guidance has for this time frame. Dry conditions and a few clouds linger overnight, with morning lows falling into the lower/middle 40s.
Weak inverted trough and easterly flow around higher surface pressure east of the Appalachians is bringing in low level moisture to southeastern parts of the forecast area this morning. The low relative humidity values should be confined to the northeast today.
The region will become unstable Monday afternoon and evening as an upper low moves east across the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma.
Mostly clear and cool conditions are expected overnight, and patchy frost is likely in the cooler interior valleys early Sunday morning.
This is in response to deepening surface pressure to the northwest ahead of an approaching trough. The global models paint some QPF with this feature, but some of the high-res models continue to show a more robust broken line of convection moving into the area tomorrow evening.
Temperatures have risen to the lower to mid 60s with dewpoints also rising into the 30s to lower 40s most areas with the east to southeast flow. Tonight and Monday will stay mostly clear as the trough shifts east and upper level ridging moves overhead. Followed the colder MET guidance for lows tonight and a blend for Mondays highs which brought lows similar to todays and highs expected to be a couple degrees warmer than this afternoon, mid 60s to near 70.
Highs on Monday afternoon are likely to be similar to this afternoon, as the warmer start to the day is offset by the aforementioned increase in cloud cover and surface winds backing to a less favorable southeasterly direction by late afternoon.
However, the upper-level pattern will begin to change as a robust 500-mb trough digs across the Four Corners region. Clouds will be on the increase Monday evening as the core of a 300- mb jet noses into the Deep South and helps the 500-mb trough lift and pivot into the Ozarks.
1010 AM MST Sun Mar 21 2021 Updated Aviation A series of weather disturbances will affect the region this week bringing frequently breezy conditions and cooler temperatures. Temperatures through much of the week will remain around normal as afternoon highs across the lower deserts top out in the mid to upper 70s.
The GEFS continues to have much higher amounts, and cooler temperatures, than the ECMWF ensemble. Some of the higher resolution guidance, like the NAM do seem to be trending on the lower side of things. Have continued to go on the lower side, which is in line with the NBM and WPC guidance, given some the probabilistic guidance is only giving a 10 to 20 percent chance of exceeding 6 inches around Red Lodge and other foothills locations.
1148 AM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021 Weak inverted trough and easterly flow around higher surface pressure east of the Appalachians is bringing in low level moisture to southeastern parts of the forecast area this morning. The low relative humidity values should be confined to the northeast today.
321 PM CDT Sun Mar 21 2021 A mid level trough across the Rockies into southern California this afternoon with a fetch of mid level moisture streaming into the southern Plains from the Pacific. Tonight a closed circulation within the mid level trough is forecast to develop near the four corners late tonight.
129 PM MDT Sun Mar 21 2021 Mean central CONUS troughing will prevail most of the week with the main storm track west-south of the FA. Splitting upper trough will support a few rain/snow showers Tues over the western third. Otherwise, an ejecting Plains sfc cyclone will remain SE of the FA, with a small chance to clip far Tripp county. Split flow will prevail the remainder of the week with another late week splitting upper trough clipping mainly the western FA, with precip again being mainly instability driven.
A secondary cold front is currently draped southwest from the north central to the west central. The transient high moves east of the area Monday morning, and a warm front lifts from the southwest to north central through the day. As the warm front progresses, clouds will be on the increase across the west through the afternoon and into portions of the central at night.
Regionally, a weak low pressure system remains nearly stationary off the NE Florida coast. A weak cold front extends southwards from the low, clipping the western Bahamas and wrapping around into the Gulf of Mexico through the southern Florida Straits. The low pressure system off Jacksonville is expected to move northeastward during the first half of this upcoming week, away from Florida and the southeast coast of the United States.
301 PM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021 High pressure will remain in control of our weather into the middle of the week with above normal temperatures. High pressure shifts east with a influx of moisture for the second half of the week while very warm temperatures continue.
Beautiful weather abounds across the TN Valley this morning on this second day of Spring, with current temperatures ranging form the middle/upper 40s to the lower 50s at this hour. The only feature of note on visible satellite imagery this morning is a scattered/broken deck of low clouds advecting Wwrd across the area from a departing area of low pressure centered off the Space Coast of FL. As a result, locations in NE AL will likely only see the lower 60s this aftn, which is only a few degrees below normal temps for this time of year (middle 60s). After another clear and dry night, we'll have one more nice weather day on Monday as the center of the high pressure system shifts further to the east, resulting in a prevailing southerly flow.
1130 AM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021 Have updated the forecast to increase pops in far east central sections for the next few hours as showers circulate around the off shore low pressure area. Monday looks to be quite pleasant with mostly clear skies as regime is dominated by upper ridge and lingering hybrid wedge. Max temps today could be a bit more limited in the southeast given aforementioned low and precip, otherwise expect Monday morning lows in the low to mid 40s for most areas and moderating warmer Monday afternoon generally in the upper 60s to low 70s.
High confidence exists for a pacific trough to move southeastward across British Columbia into the Northern Rockies late tonight into Monday. The atmosphere will destabilize Monday afternoon as the upper level trough axis moves overhead.
1113 AM MDT Sun Mar 21 2021 Surface analysis shows the cold front has pushed to the southeast of PHP-IEN and should be completely out of the forecast area shortly after sunrise. High temperatures will be cooler than yesterday, though still near, or slightly warmer than, the average for this time of year. A NE-SW oriented band of -snra has developed in the area of enhanced lift ahead of the upper trough. Mean central CONUS troughing will prevail through most of the week with the main storm track remaining well to the south of the forecast area.
1050 AM MDT Sun Mar 21 2021 Overview: A broad/complex upper level trough over the Intermountain West will slowly shift eastward into the Rockies (Tonight) and central/southern Plains (Mon-Mon night). rounding the base of the broader upper trough. With increasing mid-upper level cloud cover and 'reinforced' northerly flow over the region, expect temperatures cooler than yesterday. ranging from the upper 40s in northeast Colorado to the lower-mid 60s in the far southeast (e. Tonight-Monday night: The aforementioned upper wave and associated surface cyclone in the lee of the southern Rockies will amplify/deepen and track eastward into the Texas Panhandle tonight. Guidance is in general agreement that further amplification/deepening of the upper wave/surface cyclone will occur over the Southern Plains on Monday -- with the ensuing mature /vertically stacked/ cyclone lifting NE-NNE from OK into eastern KS Monday night.
Recent mild temperatures will make it difficult to see significant accumulations for the lower valleys, but several inches are forecast for mountain valleys and the higher terrain.
A series of weather disturbances will affect the region this week bringing cooler temperatures and frequently breezy conditions.
A mid level trough across the Rockies into southern California this afternoon with a fetch of mid level moisture streaming into the southern Plains from the Pacific. Tonight a closed circulation within the mid level trough is forecast to develop near the four corners late tonight.
Winds will increase again Monday from the southwest during the day and a cold front expected Monday evening. Rux PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Clouds will begin to increase tonight ahead of cold front that will move through the area on Monday.
607 PM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021 High pressure will remain in control of our weather into the middle of the week with above normal temperatures. High pressure shifts east with a influx of moisture for the second half of the week while very warm temperatures continue.
712 PM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021 High pressure, located over the northeastern states, will slide slowly eastward through Monday keeping dry weather across the region.
553 PM MDT Sun Mar 21 2021 Light to moderate rain and snow showers continue this afternoon, mostly along the higher elevations of western Colorado. Even with this snow, impacts to travel have been limited given the high March sun angle with webcams showing mostly wet roads. This is all due to the progression of the mid-level Pacific trough eastward across the region. Light shower activity will continue over at least the west-central Colorado mountains into Monday afternoon as the area remains on the backside of the Pacific trough and under the influence of residual moisture and mild instability.
Tonight, lows should not fall more than a few degrees than what was observed as highs, dropping to the low to mid 50s.
Not much accumulation expected across the lower elevations with model soundings showing some drier air initially in the boundary layer. The I-80 Summit and north to northeast side of the Snowy Range have the best chance to see 1 to 3 inches and an outside chance of 4 inches by Monday morning, with less than an inch across the lower elevations from Arlington to Cheyenne. Models continue to show the slow moving upper level trough axis digging south into southern Utah and Arizona tonight and finally ejecting eastward.
645 PM CDT Sun Mar 21 2021 High pressure is moving off to the east and southerly flow is returning.
922 PM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021 Surface analysis this evening shows high pressure off the New England coast with warm southerly return flow in place across Indiana. Given these clouds and the warmer southerly flow in place trended overnight lows slightly warmer than the previous forecast. High pressure will remain in control for the weather at the surface with ridging aloft for much of the period. Moisture aloft and surface humidities will start gradually increasing tonight ahead of an approaching trough.
This trough does take on a negative tilt with fairly strong QG forcing across the Mid- South.
Wind will decrease overnight as the elongated, positively tilted trough closes off over the four corners area and translates eastward into the southern plains.
The winds along with cloud cover will keep temperatures on the mild side, with lows in the lower to middle 40s. Meanwhile, a sfc cold front currently located across the eastern Dakotas will move east into WI tonight.
An upper trough over the Plains and a lack of good mixing on Monday will keep highs in the 50s, which is still 5 to 10 degrees above average for mid to late March. Low pressure will move through the southern plains Monday night.
533 PM MDT Sun Mar 21 2021 Mean central CONUS troughing will prevail most of the week with the main storm track west-south of the FA. Splitting upper trough will support a few rain/snow showers Tues over the western third. Otherwise, an ejecting Plains sfc cyclone will remain SE of the FA, with a small chance to clip far Tripp county. Split flow will prevail the remainder of the week with another late week splitting upper trough clipping mainly the western FA, with precip again being mainly instability driven.
/Issued 320 PM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021/ The upper trough over the southeast coastal states will gradually push eastward off shore overnight. the upper ridge builds over the southeast and a dry and warming trend should dominate the remainder of the short term.
729 PM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021 The center of a +1035mb surface anticyclone is out over the Atlantic Ocean east of Cape Cod while a trough of low pressure is in place across Minnesota southward into the central Plains. High pressure now centered over the northeastern CONUS continues to bring benign weather conditions over the region today. Slight boost in warm thermal advection with the passage of the mid level ridge axis over the central Great Lakes. This brings temperatures at 850 mb into the 1-4C range this afternoon, which is translating to surface temperatures this afternoon that are climbing well above normal into the low to mid 60s for most locations. A warmer start to the morning will aid high temperatures on Monday coming in slightly higher compared to Sunday.
719 PM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021 High pressure centered near the New England Coast will extend a ridge of high pressure west over the local area through Monday. A warm front will lift north across the area Monday.
a 500mb closed low is expected to develop over northwest New Mexico by sunrise Monday morning tracking east toward the Texas/Oklahoma border by the end of the day. The axis of 850-500mb moisture in the precipitation shield wrapping around the upper low will produce high chance to categorical pops across the area during the day. Low temperatures are expected to range from the low 30s along and west of the CO/KS border to the upper 30s near Hill City. The current forecast has snowfall accumulations of a few tenths to nearly 3 inches across the higher terrain of western Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties.
Light rain continues working eastward this afternoon in advance of a cold frontal passage. The wind shift line early this afternoon is just east of the Red River, with the lower dew points still back in central North Dakota. Temperatures following the front will actually rebound a bit higher thanks to clearing skies; however, humidity will fall in response to the lower dew points. Clustered ensemble means are still consistent run to run in depicting a picture of an upper low south to southeast of our forecast area tracking to the northeast.
215 PM MST Sun Mar 21 2021 A series of weather disturbances will affect the region this week bringing cooler temperatures and frequently breezy conditions.
A cold front will swing through on Monday, but only light rain and a dusting of high mountain snow is forecast.
947 PM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021 High pressure will remain in control of our weather into the middle of the week with above normal temperatures. High pressure shifts east with a influx of moisture for the second half of the week while very warm temperatures continue.
912 PM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021 High pressure wedge remains firmly entrenched across northern portions of GA this evening. A low pressure center located off the NE FL coast will continue to move along the eastern seaboard through tonight. /Issued 320 PM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021/ The upper trough over the southeast coastal states will gradually push eastward off shore overnight. the upper ridge builds over the southeast and a dry and warming trend should dominate the remainder of the short term.
Clouds will continue to increase and lower heading into this evening ahead of an approaching weak cold front just now crossing into western MN. Not looking very promising for rain as the front crosses into the area with residual dry air in the low levels. Mostly cloudy skies will keep temperatures a bit cooler with highs in the 50s. By Monday night, the closed low will be ejecting northeastward with a tightening gradient leading to increasing moisture transport pointing into the boundary stalled across the area.
1054 PM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021 High pressure centered near the New England Coast will extend a ridge of high pressure west over the local area through Monday. A warm front will lift north across the area Monday.
Since insanity is often referred to doing the same thing and expecting different results, have opted to lower tomorrow's high temperatures by 2-4 degrees lower than most forecast guidance as This is in spite of weak ridging replacing mid level trough. Winds and seas will continue to subside tomorrow as the low pulls away from the United States and high pressure takes control.
High pressure will be situated east of the region today. Southwest flow aloft will stream in moisture as the low continues to wrap up west of the region.
Late in the period, SHRA/TSRA will approach the state from the west ahead of an advancing cold front.
Overnight lows will be rather mild, as breezy conditions continue with readings dropping into the lower 50s. Slightly cooler temperatures expected behind the front on Tuesday, with highs ranging from the middle 60s in south central Missouri, to the upper 50s in southeast Kansas. Low will drop into the lower to middle 40s.
1246 AM EDT Mon Mar 22 2021 High pressure will remain in control of our weather into the middle of the week with above normal temperatures. High pressure shifts east with a influx of moisture for the second half of the week while very warm temperatures continue.
121 AM EDT Mon Mar 22 2021 High pressure, located over the northeastern states, will slide slowly eastward through Monday keeping dry weather across the region.
242 AM MDT Mon Mar 22 2021 The broad-scale trough remains in place across the US, with smaller scale troughs continuing to rotate through. The next trough begins to impact the state starting this afternoon, with snowfall increasing across the western mountains due to better upsloping. As this trough drop southward across ID and UT tonight, it will bring a cold front southward across the state.