Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
01Z Surface analysis places a back door cold front over portions of Central Illinois and Southern Indiana/Ohio. An upper ridge is currently building across the region providing a consistent deep southerly flow over the Mid-South. The pattern will remain much of the same through most of the week with the ridge over the east. The ridge over the CWA isn't atypical for the summertime with high temperatures expected to remain in the low 90s every day through the week and lows in the low 70s. Dew points will remain the low 70s throughout the week. Additionally, the next best chance for rain unfortunately looks like it'll be on the 4th of July as a weak trough moves through, but the good news is it doesn't look like it'll be a substantial rainfall at this time.
The convection to our northwest should continue dissipating with the loss of heating and a stabilizing boundary layer but we may see the convection continue and increase in coverage after midnight due in part to a persistent inverted trough axis which as of this evening was located across S TX into SE TX and NW LA.
The upper level trough remains over the west coast keeping temperatures near to slightly below normal.
A persistent eastern Pacific trough will keep the region under a dry southwest flow through much of the upcoming week with occasional afternoon breezy conditions. Temperatures are expected to remain near normal The models are hinting that the trough will weaken toward the end of the week allowing for high pressure to strengthen over the desert southwest. This should help to bring warmer temperatures back to the area, but there is still no sign of any significant monsoonal moisture.
An upper ridge is currently building across the region providing a consistent deep southerly flow over the Mid-South. The pattern will remain much of the same through most of the week with the ridge over the east. The ridge over the CWA isn't atypical for the summertime with high temperatures expected to remain in the low 90s every day through the week and lows in the low 70s. Dew points will remain the low 70s throughout the week. Additionally, the next best chance for rain unfortunately looks like it'll be on the 4th of July as a weak trough moves through, but the good news is it doesn't look like it'll be a substantial rainfall at this time.
929 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019 High pressure will move across the region through Monday.
Rodriguez 419 PM CDT Through much of the upcoming week we should continue to see seasonably warm and humid conditions with at least periodic chances of showers and thunderstorms as the region remains on the periphery of the upper ridge which should move to the southeastern U.
For the work week - On Monday A dry southwest flow aloft increases here on as low pressure deepens over the Pacific Northwest.
642 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Upper level ridging is in the process of flattening and settling back over the Southern Plains. Upper level ridging will remain across the Southern Plains through the upcoming week.
559 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 An upper-level ridging pattern continues to center over the Central Plains area, maintaining dry conditions and persistent hot temperatures. Slightly lower dew point values in the lower 70s compared to the last couple of days have and will continue to bring slightly cooler heat indices today through the early week ahead. While not much change is expected there, heat indices will be around 10 degrees cooler compared to the latest trends, stemming from slightly cooler air temps and drier dew point values.
Quiet conditions anticipated on Monday across the area as low pressure remains off the Oregon coast, with isolated afternoon showers in western Baker and northern Harney counties in Oregon. Temperatures across the area are expected to warm a couple more degrees, with the Treasure Valley anticipated to reach into the low 90s.
Thus far, deep convection has been triggered along the higher terrain and along the sheared vorticity maximum in north AL.
905 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Upper level high pressure ridge over the Central CONUS breaks down on Monday with transition to near zonal flow becoming established over the northern tier of the country.
This cycle features an upper trough retrograding very slowly across the area. Concur with the deterministic runs which maintain a quasi- stationary upper trough over the region during the period.
201 PM PDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Cooler than average temperatures through July 4th.
328 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019 Upper ridging will bring yet another hot and dry day to the area today with temps in the upper 80s across southeast Kansas and the low to mid 90s in south central and central Kansas.
134 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2019 High pressure will remain over the region overnight. A weak area of low pressure will push a warm front across the forecast area on Monday.
Northwest flow aloft, which has characterized the pattern the last 24 hours or so, will give way to increase H5 heights as ridge builds east into the Ohio Valley. It will be another mild night with lows in the lower 70s.
High pressure will follow and remain offshore through the end of the week as chances for rain increase. The front will continue to push south this morning, with weak high pressure then building in this aftn. Lows in the low/mid 70s.
231 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019 Central Illinois will continue to be dominated by an upper-level ridge of high pressure today. Highs will top out in the lower to middle 90s with lows tonight only dropping into the lower to middle 70s.
Weak upper low will approach from the south on Monday with the potential for scattered afternoon showers/thunderstorms across SE OK/NW AR during peak heating. Weak upper low will approach from the south on Monday with the potential for scattered afternoon showers/ thunderstorms across SE OK/NW AR during peak heating. /Issued 250 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019/ A ridge of high pressure aloft extends from NM northeast to the central Plains. To the south of the ridge, upper level low pressure resides over southern TX with a trough axis extending east of the low across the south central states. Scattered showers and storms have developed near the trough axis across central and southern AR and some of this activity will probably move into western AR and southeast OK in the east to southeast flow aloft.
The northeast extent of a large upper level ridge had become a little suppressed as an old boundary remained from Wisconsin into Illinois. Continued concern for heat illnesses with temperatures rising into the lower 90s combined with heat indices rising to near 95, so will continue to mention this in the Hazardous Weather Outlook product.
132 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2019 High pressure will extend from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through the middle of the week. North of this ridge, troughing will be in the forecast area. Strong upper ridging will occur. Low temperatures tonight will be in the low to mid 70s. The backdoor cold front will dissipate in the region. The westerly flow associated with ridging in the Gulf of Mexico will help maintain lee troughing in the forecast area. The models depict building 500 mb ridging. Leaned toward the lower temperature guidance based on the recent bias. The GFS and ECMWF indicate some increase in moisture during the end of the week in a southerly flow on the backside of high pressure off the Southeast Coast. Upper ridging is forecast to continue.
The combination of an unstable air mass and the approach of a weak upper low from the southwest towards the middle of the week, will result in a daily potential for showers and thunderstorms for most of this week. Based on above, will go with chance PoPs today, with the highest PoPs this afternoon. The location of the low level jet today suggests the more organized convection today will remain well to the north, across the Great Lakes. Model data suggest heights will gradually begin to fall starting tonight, as the upper ridge flattens out and a weak upper low over Texas opens up and begins drifting towards the area. Not really seeing anything in the model data to serve as a focus for organized convection over the next couple of days locally, other that the approach of the upper low.
With the upper trough axis across NE TX into NW LA, will likely see redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms across Central/ Southeast Texas with this activity developing and/or moving towards the LFK/TYR and GGG terminals overnight or towards to predawn hours on Monday. The convection to our northwest should continue dissipating with the loss of heating and a stabilizing boundary layer but we may see the convection continue and increase in coverage after midnight due in part to a persistent inverted trough axis which as of this evening was located across S TX into SE TX and NW LA.
Relatively clear skies and light winds have allowed for a noticeably cooler start to the morning across the region.
354 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019 Generally quiet pattern will continue for the next couple days as the mid level ridging currently in place lingers into the middle part of the upcoming week. While southerly flow at the surface keeps the moisture and warm air trickling into the area the mid level suppression associated with the H5 ridge will keep any storm activity at bay. Daytime highs across the region will generally be in the upper 80s with heat indices in the lower 90s for Monday afternoon.
1213 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019 Upper level ridging is in the process of flattening and settling back over the Southern Plains. Upper level ridging will remain across the Southern Plains through the upcoming week.
Overall convective coverage today should be increased over yesterday's, with some potential even spreading outside of the usual higher terrain areas, as upper level low pressure currently over central Texas spreads slowly northward.
The convective complex of showers and thunderstorms stabilized at least the central/eastern portion of the forecast area, but will be keeping a close eye on storms that develop over west/south central MN this afternoon and evening given the high instability that remains there.
For the work week - On Monday, a dry southwest flow aloft increases as low pressure deepens over the Pacific Northwest.
Upper ridging that was anchored over NM since late last week has started to break down as an inverted trough moves west across Texas. This will begin a week where our area sits in a weakness between a building ridge over the Southeast U.
A rather stagnant upper pattern highlights the weather today as broad deep layer ridging prevails across the south central/east CONUS, centered atop the Plains which effectively favors nwly flow across the TN Valley and Southern Appalachians. As for threats, freezing lvls look to be around 15kft (which should inhibit large hail), thus think general thunderstorms will dominate possibly favoring gusty winds and cloud to ground lightning. Otherwise, max temperatures will top out a few degrees above normal levels, which combined with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s could yield heat index values in the mid/upper 90s (especially across the lower valley).
Mid level ridging was beginning to be suppressed southward as strong westerly flow developed in the Northern Plains. Strong convection developed along periphery of ridge axis where mid level temperatures were a bit cooler, from western Nebraska into South Dakota and Minnesota. A cold front was analyzed from northwest Nebraska to the Minnesota and Iowa border, and is forecast to make a slow push southward into northeast Nebraska later this afternoon as heights continue to lower. Fairly high freezing levels should limit large hail potential to only the strongest storms, with damaging microburst winds more likely in collapsing storms.
Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue across the southwest and south central tonight with a series of impulses aloft propagating along the high precipitable water axis. A region of high pressure across Montana into North Dakota remains in place for this afternoon and tonight.
318 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2019 West to northwest low-level flow will be in place today as ridge axis shifts south and west of the region.
224 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019 18Z Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicate a 594 DM H5 ridge remains centered over the Tri State area, leading to widespread clear skies. Temperatures will be slightly cooler tomorrow based on cooling temps aloft, but with the exception of northwestern zones do not expect any big relief from heat just yet. At the start of the period, weak ridging spans across the southern CONUS with zonal flow over the northern Plains. In addition to that, a closed low is centered over Canada and a trough has entered the Pacific Northwest and west coast. This setup leaves the region under a quasi-zonal flow at the northern edge of the ridge.
A deep upper-level low pressure system is spinning off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and resulting in a deep area of troughing stretching down the coast of California. This low pressure system is expected to push inland through the week, though impacts for our area remain the same: a weak southwesterly flow that results in clear, dry conditions.
This moisture isn't going anywhere, which is going to lead to another couple of afternoons with Heat Index values in the low triple digits.
While models have similar solutions on weakened mid level ridge and plenty of moisture to fuel storms, they differ on evolution of mesoscale forcing mechanisms, which will be modulated by location/intensity of daily convection. It is also cooler with west/northwest flow closer to the Southern Plains. ECM trending stronger with building ridge, but with ridge axis far enough west to yield potential for frontal intrusions in Oklahoma.
357 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019 An MCV currently located over central Illinois is embedded the upper level northeasterly flow as it turns anticyclonically around the high pressure centered over southwest Iowa. Monday has the potential to be the toastiest day of the week with temperatures in the low 90s and heat indices peaking in the low 100s across much of the region.
Low temps will hold in the lower 70s. The active jet stream will remain in the vicinity of the northern US border, while subtropical ridging will persist over the Gulf of Mexico and the southern border.
An upper low pressure center should reach the northern Oregon coast by late afternoon Monday.
/Today through Sunday/ Convection riding atop an upper ridge across the eastern Dakotas and Nebraska and across Minnesota and Wisconsin should stay north of the area this morning. low pressure over the Plains and an associated frontal boundary will be a key player in the weather tonight through much of the remainder of the week.
Thanks to the upper low in Texas, the northern areas will be in an easterly flow. Meanwhile, high pressure to our south will provide a westerly flow to the southern counties.
1050 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 An upper-level ridging pattern continues to center over the Central Plains area, maintaining dry conditions and persistent hot temperatures. Slightly lower dew point values in the lower 70s compared to the last couple of days have and will continue to bring slightly cooler heat indices today through the early week ahead. While not much change is expected there, heat indices will be around 10 degrees cooler compared to the latest trends, stemming from slightly cooler air temps and drier dew point values.
1156 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Upper level high pressure ridge over the Central CONUS breaks down on Monday with transition to near zonal flow becoming established over the northern tier of the country.
319 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019 West Texas remains under the influence of broad ridging that will gradually pivot eastward by midweek, when it will be centered over the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile an upper level disturbance will push south out of the Pacific Northwest while the shifted ridge feeds moisture back up to our latitude.
This will leave high pressure to settle in over the southeastern CONUS and also just to the east of Kentucky for today. Model soundings also show generally between 2000 and 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE across eastern Kentucky, with the highest values in the west.
/issued 318 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2019/ West to northwest low-level flow will be in place today as ridge axis shifts south and west of the region.
The front finally pushes off to the south on Tuesday as weak high pressure settles in, bringing drier conditions to the area. Temperatures will be a bit cooler today due to abundant cloud cover, with highs mainly in the 70s. After a mild night with lows in the lower to mid 60s, will see temperatures back up in the 80s on Tuesday.
While much of the area will see 1000+ J/kg of CAPE this afternoon, area with the highest values will once again be from the Red Lodge Foothills down through the Pryor and Bighorn Mountains. An upper trough over the Pac NW will keep the region under diffluent southwest flow aloft.
418 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019 (Today and Tonight) An inverted trough will remain across Texas today and tonight. Highs today will be near seasonal normals, in the low to mid 90s.
Active pattern still expected through the extended, with lower heights and proximity of upper lows over Canada supportive of near normal to slightly below normal temperatures (normal highs near 80, normal lows near 60).
The forecast area remains between the weakness of a departing mid/upper low to the west, and high pressure aloft building into the region from the southeast. Highs this afternoon will top out in the low and middle 90s, with lows overnight falling into the lower 70s. As the upper ridge builds over the region toward the 4th of July holiday and in the days following, this will bring temperatures well into the mid 90s across the region.
/issued 319 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019/ West Texas remains under the influence of broad ridging that will gradually pivot eastward by midweek, when it will be centered over the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile an upper level disturbance will push south out of the Pacific Northwest while the shifted ridge feeds moisture back up to our latitude.
Storms are expected to redevelop this afternoon across the Black Hills, while more storms push into northeast Wyoming from the Bighorns ahead of an upper wave crossing the High Plains. However, better instability is expected Tuesday as warmer air builds back into the region and dewpoints well into the 60s.
High pressure will follow and remain offshore through the end of the week as chances for rain increase. The front will continue to push south this morning, with weak high pressure then building in this aftn. Lows in the low/mid 70s. The mid level ridge responsible for the dry and hot weather will be getting pushed to the south hopefully setting the stage for more showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will develop over the region late in the week and into the upcoming weekend resulting in a gradual inland warming trend. These temperatures are a bit below seasonal averages as a broad mid/upper level trough remains aloft. Little change is anticipated through at least the first half of the week as the mid/upper level pattern will be dominated by the upper level trough lingering over the region. Weather conditions are likely to be seasonable for Independence Day as weak high pressure develops aloft.
High pressure will follow and remain offshore through the end of the week as chances for rain increase. NW to N winds have developed this morning behind a weak cold front. This feature will bring relatively cooler and drier air to the area compared to yesterday, although high temps will still be a little above normal, mostly in the low 90s near the coast and mid 90s inland. Lows in the low/mid 70s. The mid level ridge responsible for the dry and hot weather will be getting pushed to the south hopefully setting the stage for more showers and thunderstorms.
Down along the gulf coast temperatures are rather mild with most sites in the lower 70s and a few locations reporting upper 60s with a bit of fog in cntrl Louisiana. This beats the lower 80s of last week and is a more typical temperature for the gulf coast. We are in the depth of summer with an area of high pressure centered over the gulf. This area of high pressure will migrate around the gulf through this week and into the weekend.
This moisture isn't going anywhere, which is going to lead to another couple of afternoons with Heat Index values in the low triple digits. Afternoon highs should peak on Tuesday, then we'll see a very gradual fall each afternoon back into the low 90s.
Our short lived ridge of high pressure will weaken overnight Monday as a trough off the west coast strengthens and moves east.
As the ridge flattens tonight into Tuesday morning models still hint at the remnants of a MCS exiting the Great Lakes into the Upper Ohio River Valley.
638 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019 Upper ridging will bring yet another hot and dry day to the area today with temps in the upper 80s across southeast Kansas and the low to mid 90s in south central and central Kansas. The upper ridge that has brought persistent hot and dry conditions over the past few days will break down Tuesday.
Thanks to the upper low in Texas, the northern areas will be in an easterly flow. Meanwhile, high pressure to our south will provide a westerly flow to the southern counties. Ridging remains in place across the Southeastern CONUS Tuesday as the upper level low gradually dissipates. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon through the weekend as the high pressure remains overhead.
638 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019 An MCV currently located over central Illinois is embedded the upper level northeasterly flow as it turns anticyclonically around the high pressure centered over southwest Iowa. Monday has the potential to be the toastiest day of the week with temperatures in the low 90s and heat indices peaking in the low 100s across much of the region. Mid and upper level flow will become southwesterly with upper level high pressures flanking the continent. MRM The upper levels become increasingly quasi-zonal with weak flow through the period as the weak low pressure in the southern central US lifts to the northeast. Thunderstorm chances increase over the holiday weekend as a weak cold frontal boundary wavers south through Missouri and Illinois.
620 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019 Generally quiet pattern will continue for the next couple days as the mid level ridging currently in place lingers into the middle part of the upcoming week. While southerly flow at the surface keeps the moisture and warm air trickling into the area the mid level suppression associated with the H5 ridge will keep any storm activity at bay. Daytime highs across the region will generally be in the upper 80s with heat indices in the lower 90s for Monday afternoon. Tuesday should bring more of the same, as the mid level ridge remains firmly in place.
Cooler temperatures will continue along the coast for the next couple of days, with some marine clouds expected to persist. An upper-level trough lies over the West Coast as an upper-level low meanders toward the Oregon coast through Tuesday.
The continued southwesterly flow aloft will also result in slightly warmer temperatures through Tuesday.
624 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019 Central Illinois will continue to be dominated by an upper-level ridge of high pressure today. Highs will top out in the lower to middle 90s with lows tonight only dropping into the lower to middle 70s.
Cold front, which was analyzed just northwest of the state, will be additional focus for showers/storms today.
An elongated upper level trough axis stretches from Northeast Texas into Deep South Texas early this morning.
The sky is clear outside passing wispy cirrus around the front end of a building H5 anti-cyclone. Afternoon highs will be a little warmer than yesterday since H8 values increased by 3C. As the ridge flattens tonight into Tuesday morning models still hint at the remnants of a MCS exiting the Great Lakes into the Upper Ohio River Valley.