Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WIDELY SEPARATED STRONG-SEVERE SURFACE-BASED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH AXIS. A 35-40 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THERE MAY BE ONGOING CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF THE TURNPIKE THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET. HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY COULD WEAKEN/DISSIPATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET BACKS TO MORE SOUTHERLY WITH THE UPGLIDE SHUTTING DOWN. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT FROM A STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH.
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEVADA. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN APPROACH 90 DEGREES ON FRIDAY BUT A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY DROPPING AFTERNOON HIGHS BY 10 DEGREES MOST AREAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SHIFT WEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WEST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY FRI/FRI NIGHT. WITH CENTRAL NC BECOMING SITUATED ON THE FAR NE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. ENHANCING THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST AND TIPPING THE FLOW INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS WELL AS NUDGE THE PERSISTENT SURFACE TROF OVER THE AREA OFFSHORE.
340 AM PDT FRI JUL 10 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EXIT THE REGION THIS FRIDAY. YET CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OF THE SIERRA WILL CONTINUE. MAINLY OVER THE HIGH COUNTY OF THE SIERRA NEVADA. THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE WEST COAST. WARMING OF TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW UNDER THE TROF BEFORE THE RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE WEST. THE RIDGE/S INFLUENCE WILL BE FELT BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. MODELS ATTEMPT TO INTRODUCE YET ANOTHER TROF OVER THE WEST COAST.
HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN WYO AND DOWN INTO NERN UT AND NWRN CO.
348 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTABLY LESS HUMID WEATHER WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN.
130 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 COLD FRONT RETURNS. ALONG WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR. WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS.
AREA TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON RANGE FROM THE LOW 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 80S OVER THE HIGHER HILL COUNTRY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS PATTERN IS THANKS TO BUILDING MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STRETCHING INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS.
THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN THE MAIN WEATHER PRODUCER OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS SHIFTED SLOWLY NORTHEAST OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH ITS CENTER NOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY. THIS DISTURBANCE AND THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE SHIFTING INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SUNRISE. UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER NORCAL TODAY PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO UTILIZE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE REGION FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WITH COOL AIRMASS UNDER THE LOW AND CLOUD COVER. THE UPPER LOW OVER NORCAL IS PROGGED TO FILL AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY LEAVING A WEAK TROUGH JUST OFF THE COAST. LESS CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR WARMER DAYS BUT STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
401 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. 850-HPA TEMPS RISING UP TO ABOUT 15C YIELDING HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
253 AM PDT FRI JUL 10 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
142 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
625 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL NEED TO BE SCOURED OUT BY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING INTO OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKY CONDITION.
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WE START TO SEE A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN SATURDAY AS A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST COAST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS TROUGH WILL ACT AS A KICKER FOR THE LOW THAT BROUGHT THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE AIR TO THE AREA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH COMING TO THE COAST. THE AXIS OF THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS TO THE COAST AROUND 00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
431 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH DRY WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER THE AREA. WHICH ALONG WITH AN UPTICK IN 925 MB TEMPS OVER THE REGION WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 80S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE LAKE BEFORE THE LAKE BREEZE KICKS IN THIS AFTERNOON. TROUGH AND REACHES WESTERN MN/IA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
SHOWERS APPEARING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY. WHETHER IT BE FROM AN OSCILLATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS ALOFT FORECAST FOR LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
214 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING FAIR SKIES AND CLEAR WEATHER. DRY AIR ADVECTION AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER BY MID MORNING, BRINGING A PLEASANT SUMMER DAY AND A CLEAR OVERNIGHT. AS RIDGING BUILDS IN BOTH SFC AND ALOFT FRI-SAT. AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
352 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 One more fairly active day expected today before upper ridging brings an end to rain chances through the remainder of this forecast package. Southwest flow aloft will persist today with a rich mid level theta-e ridge oriented across the region. Expect thunderstorm activity to wane fairly quickly tonight as upper ridging slowly edges westward into the region.
620 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED.
THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD COUNTER THIS SOMEWHAT. GENERAL TROUGHINESS HANGS TOUGH WITH A TROUGH AXIS CENTERED ALONG WESTERN CALIFORNIA.
UPPER RIDGING IS STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SAT AND RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY SUN WHICH WILL KEEP THE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMUP EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE FOR MON WITH THE UPPER RIDGING REMAINING PLANTED OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION BELOW CLIMO LEVEL WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SOAR INTO THE MID-UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHER DWPTS WERE STILL IN THE LOW-MID SUS VLLY OF PA AND SHUD ADVECT NORTHWARD WITH SRLY WINDS. AS RIDGING BUILDS IN BOTH SFC AND ALOFT FRI-SAT. AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
In this flow a surface lee trough will be established across eastern New Mexico. The greatest concern with these storms will be locally heavy rainfall and the possibility of localized flash flooding in the Guadalupe Mountains and portions of the southeast New Mexico plains and possibly the Van Horn Highway 54 corridor, where a mid level theta e ridge is forecast to become established in weak flow aloft through Friday. The forecast for this weekend through the end of the next work week looks to be very warm and dry as a sprawling upper level ridge is forecast to become established over the region.
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST ARE PRODUCING BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING SLY BL FLOW ALONG WITH THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
316 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FURTHER INTENSIFY/BUILD OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY. WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS. MODELS FIRE CONVECTION ALONG THE EDGE OF THE HIGH AND A STATIONARY FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CENTERED TO OUR SE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND PUT US IN MORE OF A NW FLOW AS UPPER TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS OUR AREA. SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A SHORT WAVE ROLLS ACROSS JUST TO OUR NORTH.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U. AND NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING WILL AMPLIFY AS IT SLOWLY RETROGRADE WEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A TUTT LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS SPINS IN PLACE JUST OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST OF CUBA. BUT DRIER MID LEVEL AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE TUTT LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON THE LOW SIDE BOTH DAYS WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED RANGE POPS (20 TO 30 PERCENT) EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND AREAS. WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST.
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER. ODD PATTERN FOR JULY CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHLY UNUSUAL 572 DM CLOSED LOW SPINNING SW OF TONOPAH.
149 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
Deep layer ridging will continue over the region today. With the upper ridge centered right over the area and 850-mb temps rising slightly, we will begin to see a subtle increase in temps today.
NOCTURNAL STRATUS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND THE BIG COUNTRY.
201 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTABLY LESS HUMID WEATHER WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN.
311 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 06Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
402 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. 850-HPA TEMPS RISING UP TO ABOUT 15C YIELDING HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
358 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 DIFFUSE WARM FRONT LYING NORTH OF PANHANDLES EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD TODAY. MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES.
FAIRLY FAST SWLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED OVER SE ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NRN CALIFORNIA. AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW IS PROGGED TO BECOME GENERALLY SLY THIS WEEKEND AS THE WRN CONUS TROUGH WEAKENS. AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WWD INTO TEXAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. OR PERHAPS A FEW DEGS WARMER.
634 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR REGION WILL LEAD TO A GENERALLY DRY AND HOT PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND. EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS REVEALS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE CORE OF THE WESTERLIES WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND.
208 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR AND VWP DATA FROM 0815Z SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE TROF WHICH IS LARGELY DRIVING THE RAIN SHIELD IS LOCATED FROM FAR EASTERN MO INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MO.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS CONV IS FIRING IN A BROAD INVERTED 500 MB TROUGH AXIS THAT IS PUSHING INTO THE MEXICO COASTLINE TODAY. AS THIS OUTFLOW DRIVEN CONV PUSHES FURTHER NORTH EXPECT SOME OF THE CONV TO DIE OFF AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO THE NORTH OF TROUGH AXIS. LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY EXPECT THIS TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE FURTHER INLAND OVER MEXICO AS THE 500 MB RIDGE TO OUR EAST BUILDS WEST AND STABILIZES THE ATMS.
142 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW TO OUR SW WILL SEND A PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS SW IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE AN ARC OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW FROM BURNS TO STANLEY NORTHWARD.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY MORNING AND STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS PUSH THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN CANADA.
250 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH SW DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A RIDGE OVER THE SE US HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST TOWARDS EASTERN TX. WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF ACROSS THE CWA BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. LOW LEVEL VEERING ALONG WARM FRONT COULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE CWA WHICH WILL SUPPORT HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 OVER A LOT OF THE AREA.
THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN SUGGESTS GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD. HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION.
340 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
557 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND OVER THE REGION TODAY AND SATURDAY. BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTABLY LESS HUMID WEATHER WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RIDE FROM THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATER TODAY INTO SATURDAY.
403 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING INTO OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKY CONDITION.
1009MB LOW PRESSURE WAS A BIT SOUTH OF BUFFALO. SURFACE RIDGING WAS BUILDING NORTHWARD INTO WI/CENTRAL UPPER MI. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. SOME -SHRA WILL BE SUPPORTED ALONG A WARM FRONT ADVANCING EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO. AND SURFACE DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S. WITH THE REST OF AREA IN THE LOWER 50S. MOST PROMINENT FEATURES DRIVING OUR WEATHER WITH BE LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING. ESSENTIALLY HELD IN PLACE BY STUBBORN TO YIELD NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND NORTHEAST CANADA TROUGHING. WEAK WAVE WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH THROUGH OVERHEAD RIDGING LATER THIS WEEKEND.
OVERVIEW: LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN CANADA THIS MORNING WITH ONE SHORT WAVE/ASSOCIATED SHOWERS MOVING EAST THROUGH ONTARIO.
ONLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTED OVER CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING SATURDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
A WEAK TROUGH SHIFTS N-S ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. BRINGING A QUICK PUSH OF BETTER CLOUD COVER ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT TROUGH. SW FLOW INCREASES ON FRI AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE W. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORES TO THE LOW-MID 80S INLAND. SOME COOLER AIR COULD RETURN EARLY/MID WEEK. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS INTO THE LO/MID 50S OVER THE SCENTRAL CLOSER TO HI PRES IN THE LOWER LKS/WEAKER PRES GRADIENT. A STRONGER NNE FLOW WL ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE TIME EARLY TO MID WEEK. LOCATIONS NEAR LK SUP E OF THE KEWEENAW HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIER PRES IN ONTARIO ALLOWING FOR MORE LK INFLUENCE.
136 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT AND SUNNY SKIES FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO MID SUMMER HEAT. HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IS OF MID CONTINENTAL ORIGIN. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS THIS WEEKEND WILL NOSE NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTHWARD A BIT ON FRIDAY.
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. A RIDGE BRINGING A DRYING TREND AND SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED LOW PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND IT. THOUGH SOME ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL UTAH. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN UTAH AND THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF UTAH.
359 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 A DRY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PROVIDE A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH INCREASED SUNSHINE. WITH SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES SATURDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE OVER BEHIND EXITING WAVE.
LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOLER WEATHER CONTINUING ELSEWHERE.
ESPECIALLY WHEN THE PROGGED 594-596 DAM 5H RIDGE PLANTS ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. WITH AFTERNOON MIXED OUT DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES /20 POPS/ FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR/. UPPER RIDGING LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TODAY WILL BUILD FARTHER WEST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
127 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 A DRY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PROVIDE A DRY DAY WITH INCREASED SUNSHINE. WITH SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES SATURDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE OVER BEHIND EXITING WAVE.
336 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2015 (Today and Tonight) Upper level high pressure building in from the east, will bring quiet weather to West Central Texas for the next 24 hours.
345 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL BLOCK THE LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA FROM ADVANCING EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LOW OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NW WILL DISSOLVE INTO GENERAL TROUGHY FLOW BY SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ORIGINATE OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ONCE AGAIN AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST US AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS WEST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION FOR A PRETTY MAJOR DOWNTURN IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. PERIODIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM THE WEST COAST LONG WAVE TROUGH.
348 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW DRY AIR MOVING ACROSS THE KEYS AREA AS THE TUTT CELL NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE MID LAYER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC COMBINE. ONE MORE DAY OF FRESH WINDS TODAY AS THE RESILIENT ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
608 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING FAIR SKIES AND CLEAR WEATHER. DRY AIR ADVECTION AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER BY MID MORNING, BRINGING A PLEASANT SUMMER DAY AND A CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTS WESTWARD BUT STILL REMAINS EXTENDED OVER THE SOUTHERN U. WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AT THE SFC REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL FL.
1210 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2015 WE ARE STARTING TO BE MORE IMPACTED BY THE ANOMALOUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. WE ARE UNDER THE DIFFLUENT REGION ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
355 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT TO OUR SOUTH TODAY.
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER. /ISSUED AT 207 PM / ODD PATTERN FOR JULY CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHLY UNUSUAL 572 DM CLOSED LOW SPINNING SW OF TONOPAH.
1204 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 827 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015/ A LARGE UPPER HIGH COVERS MUCH OF THE SERN US WHILE A CDFNT EXTENDS FROM NRN TX THRU SRN MO AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. CLOSER TO HOME HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR ANOTHER MILD/HUMID/DRY NIGHT.
632 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL NEED TO BE SCOURED OUT BY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING INTO OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKY CONDITION.
/ISSUED 343 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015/ MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST /GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 90S/. 31 /ISSUED 343 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015/ ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST ON POPS/WEATHER FOR PERIOD AS MORE ACTIVE PERIOD STILL ON TAP WITH RETURN OF UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST CONUS PLACING THE CWA IN NW FLOW AND SUSCEPTIBLE TO MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BERMUDA LIKE RIDGE CONTINUING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WEAKENING SLOWLY.
315 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING FAIR SKIES AND CLEAR WEATHER. DRY AIR ADVECTION AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER BY MID MORNING, BRINGING A PLEASANT SUMMER DAY AND A CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
356 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 340 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015/ AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS TX.
343 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 IT IS A TYPICAL MIDSUMMER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WITH DEW POINTS ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER. MAYBE A DEGREE WARMER ON AVERAGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AGAIN.
310 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 THE 00Z 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD. WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO ONLY MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER 70S. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
340 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS TX.