Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Just as we've seen over the past couple of days, temps will rapidly warm up this afternoon with highs in the mid 80's across the region, with slightly cooler temps along the coast. Atlantic high pressure will continue to ridge into the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the rest of the week with winds holding around 10 knots or less, turning onshore each afternoon with the sea breeze. A weak cold front will wash out north of the waters during the weekend, with winds and seas remaining light.
An low pressure system will move slowly east toward the southern California coast today then move inland tonight.
Short term model guidance continues to trend the bulk of the precipitation further north and east of the area, but have left in low PoPs on the fringes of the CWA to account for the low possibility of some showers skirting the Flint Hills region. During the day on Friday, a broad ridge will slide across the Northern Plains and sink across northeast Kansas. As temperatures in central Kansas drop to near-freezing, rain may transition to a mix or snow in far northern portions of the forecast area.
1041 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020 A surface trof will move through eastern Oklahoma this afternoon to be quickly followed into the area by a surging cold front that will overtake the trof by late afternoon/early evening across southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas.
/Issued 1041 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020/ A surface trof will move through eastern Oklahoma this afternoon to be quickly followed into the area by a surging cold front that will overtake the trof by late afternoon/early evening across southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas.
1112 AM MDT Thu Mar 12 2020 Cold front and upper jet streak exiting the region with snow ending across the SW. The surface cold front that crossed the area overnight has passed off to the southeast of the forecast area followed by breezy to windy northwesterly winds. A relatively tight sfc pressure gradient between the departing low pressure system and high pressure building in from the northwest, along with a period of low level cold advection, will lead to gusty northwest winds today, especially over far northwestern South Dakota were wind speeds may approach advisory criteria. Attention then turns toward the expected digging western CONUS trough.
252 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020 Mid-level H7 trough continues working eastward this afternoon with CAA picking up in intensity as evening approaches.
Still this evening/tonight a minor mid-level shrtwv trof will come out from nrn MX into the Trans Pecos and PB resulting in scattered SHRA/isold TSRA. Fri will be cooler across the PB n of I-20 with highs in the 60s and 70s and then cooler Sun with highs in the 60s, possibly 50s across the northern areas, per NAM12? SW flow aloft is forecast to remain active/wet Tue-Thur.
351 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020 After a cold front swept through the area early this morning, strong northwesterly winds and a field of diurnal CU have been left in its wake on a pattern of cold air advection. As we move through the remainder of the late afternoon into the evening, high pressure will gradually nose into the western Dakotas. High pressure at the surface should give us a partly to mostly cloudy and dry day. Energy digging south along the west coast of the CONUS will provide the bump necessary to push an old southwest upper low east into the Plains.
(This evening through Friday) As of 1930Z, the cold front was located from Hughes to Jefferson Counties. Despite the NNW/NNE-ly winds behind the front, temperatures are mild and range from the low 80s over central/ southwestern OK to the low 70s across NW OK. Tomorrow will be much cooler with highs in the 40s and 50s with rain chances increasing from south to north throughout the day.
315 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020 A warm front was draped across our region at midday. These storms will continue for a couple of more hours, then a cold front will move across our region this evening. Dry and colder conditions will return late tonight and continue through the day Friday as high pressure briefly moves over the region.
Visibility associated to cloud cover has been able to drop below 1/2 mile, but the lower visibility has been fairly isolated. As the cold front progresses eastwards both areas of precip will come to an end. Dry conditions continue to be expected for Friday before the effects of the next upper trough approaches.
Potent upper level trough will dig into the western CONUS this weekend with front side ejecting impulses. This system will eventually support a low pressure system and inverted trough over the region tomorrow into the weekend, with a period of snow developing.
COLD, WIND AND SNOW WILL IMPACT NORTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKENDâ¦ Cooler than normal temperatures with increasing cloudiness will continue over the Northern Rockies this afternoon and evening, but change is coming! The well advertised cold front will begin to affect northwest Montana by 4 to 6 in the morning.
Synoptically, the region remains under the influence of the WWD extension of a SW Atlantic Ridge. A weakening surface cold front tries to approach the region from the northwest late in the period and may force a few light rainshowers tomorrow afternoon north of Highway 84 (and generally west of I-65). Lows overnight will range in the lower 60s deg(F).
Upstream cold front just beginning to move into far southwest Wisconsin. Low pressure over northern Wisconsin will continue to track northeast and deepen, dragging this cold front across southern WI late this afternoon and evening. The showers and isolated storms farther to the south over central IL are weakening which should allow less of an interrupted flow of deeper moisture into southern WI as the front and low pressure trof move through. Drier air should overwhelm the low clouds resulting in more widespread clearing later tonight into early Friday. A breezy and cooler day lies ahead for Friday with more sunshine than clouds expected.
The mid level ridge over the area will shift to the east into the Gulf of Mexico Friday as the mid level low over southern California opens up into a short wave trough over the Four Corners region Friday afternoon. This short wave trough will continue to shear apart as it moves into the southern high plains Friday night.
High pressure influence continuing. High pressure aloft building over the Gulf of Mexico will continue warm and dry conditions. Highs climbing to the mid 80s for interior locations, while an afternoon seabreeze caps coastal areas to the low 80s. Warm and dry conditions expected as high pressure ridge aloft builds over the Gulf of Mexico. In the low levels, the Atlc ridge axis will be draped across central FL and produce light winds.
Initially will see showers and storms develop just after sunrise as low level moisture increases on nose of low level jet along warm frontal boundary over portions of central Missouri and spread east and northeast. As for the activity in the warm sector, mid level lapse rates between 7 and 8 degrees, MU CAPES between 1500 and 2500 J/kg, 0-3km SRH around 400 m2/s2, as well as hodographs indicating strong speed shear (30 to 40 kts) in the lowest 1 km and strong directional shear, are good indicators of discrete supercell development with the main threats being tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail. Lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s.
354 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020 Split upper-level flow persists across the CONUS with the short wave that produced a few thunderstorms this morning progressing across the mid Mississippi Valley and an upper low remaining just off the southern California coast. The cold front has made its way through the area which has increased winds and shifted them to the northwest.
The most exciting activity is off to our north though along the warm front in the Mid-Mississippi Valley. However, as the low in the Great Lakes continues it push northeastward, the boundary will lose its forcing and begin to dissipate going into tomorrow afternoon. With scattered showers and cloud cover in the northern portions of the CWA, temps will be cooler with highs only reaching into the 60s. A ridge is progged to remain centered over the central Gulf of Mexico with prolonged perturbed southern stream flow from the Southern Plains into the southeast states. However, locations on the cool side to the north of the boundary will be cooler with highs topping out in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Significant changes in the weather pattern will take place late Friday and Friday night as an arctic cold front drops down over the forecast area.
411 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2020 Surface ridging will persist to the north of the forecast area through the remainder of this week into this weekend. Light to occasionally breezy easterly flow, peripheral to this ridge, will maintain a similar pattern of westward-moving scattered stratocumulus clouds. A cold front is forecast to approach/enter northern and central parts of Florida by early/mid week, in association with a low- amplitude midlevel perturbation advancing eastward from the northern Gulf.
Upstream an upper level low is slowly moving across Manitoba into Ontario, with a trough extending poleward into the upper Mississippi River Valley.
1211 PM MDT Thu Mar 12 2020 Overnight WV/IR imagery depicted a split pattern with a upper low offshore of CA and an active west to northwest flow aloft across the northern half of the CONUS. The High Wind Warning was cancelled earlier for the I-25 corridor from Cheyenne to Wheatland and South Laramie Range Foothills where winds had subsided. Winds will diminish this morning as the cold front sinks further south.
Cooler temperatures will arrive Friday and persist into the weekend. Cold front will sweep through and bring gusty winds and falling temps overnight into Friday.
Warm temperatures will continue today with the mid level ridge over the region.
That does not mean strong to severe thunderstorms will not occur later tonight, especially after sunset as surface cold front pushes southeast across mid state region first into northwest portions of the mid state region early evening and then potential spreading southeastward as the late evening into the overnight hours progress as more favorable upper level dynamics and low level jet structure come into play.
Temperatures will continue to run 10 to 15 degrees above normal with high temperatures in the low 80s and low temperatures in the mid to upper 60s.
Total rainfall amounts with this batch of showers along the cold front is anticipated to be light, with most locations receiving less than a tenth. Models have a very low amount of instability pooling along the cold front, but the overall threat for thunder/lightning is very low. Winds: West to northwest winds will increase this afternoon and evening behind the cold front with gusts up to 35 mph possible. Friday Cooler and breezy conditions are expected with highs in the mid 40s northeast to near 50F southwest.
Upper trough over central Canada is leaving northeast Montana in a NW flow this afternoon.
The best chance of rain and storms however will be after midnight, especially in the Big County, Concho Valley and Heartland as stronger lift comes in, and a weak cold front moves through. Friday afternoon, there is also the potential for an isolated severe storm, mainly along and northwest of a Sterling City to Sweetwater to Haskell line, with afternoon heating in the vicinity of the dissipating cold front. It will be cooler with highs in the 60s in the Big Country tomorrow, with 70s to the south. Showers and thunderstorms will likely increase across the area tomorrow night, as lift increases and interacts with a warm front that will lift north across the Big Country during the overnight hours.
337 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020 Breezy northwest winds are expected to decrease tonight as pressure gradient slackens and high pressure builds into the Central Plains.
330 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2020 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine/Hydro - A period of showers this evening - Windy late tonight and Friday - Lengthy dry period starting Friday -- A period of showers this evening -- Narrow cold frontal rain band comes through later this evening leading to a 2-3 hour period of showers for many locations. -- Windy late tonight and Friday -- Gusty winds will accompany the cold frontal passage later this evening/overnight, with gusts of 35-40 mph from the west.
Meanwhile, upper level ridge is moving in from the west and is evident from the high cirrus that is streaming in with the northwest flow aloft. Upper level trough continues to shift east and is now centered over Hispaniola. Daytime highs will be in the lower to mid 80s with overnight lows in the mid 70s.
239 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020 At 2 PM, a cold front extended from Diamond Lake WI to Oelwein IA. On Friday, high pressure will build across the region.
/issued 456 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020/ Temperatures are mild across the area this morning with readings in the lower 50s to lower 60s. Latest surface analysis places a warm front nearly parallel to the I-40 corridor at this hour with a low pressure system over western Kansas. The aforementioned warm front is expected to lift through the entire Mid-South by early afternoon, establishing a warm sector. With high temperatures climbing into the low to mid 70s this afternoon areawide, instability is expected to swell above 1000 J/kg across the entire area. Storms are expected to fire up over Southern Missouri along or just ahead of the cold front shortly before sunset. The cold front is expected to push into and stall out over north Mississippi by early Friday morning.
335 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020 A cyclone was in the development phase across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes today. It brought precipitation across the region, which was followed by northwest winds and cooler air. On Friday high pressure will build across the region. High pressure will keep the forecast area dry over the weekend.
Overnight, the surface level stationary front will transition to a cold front bringing a line of showers and possibly some isolated thunderstorms into North Georgia in the early morning. In general, the greatest rain chances will be across North Georgia in closest proximity to the passing upper-level disturbances and farther from the influence of high pressure across the Gulf.
Weather this weekend will be dominated by a large area of high pressure slowly building southeast out of Canada.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday night): Low to mid level moisture will continue to move across north Texas tonight around the northern periphery of the 500mb ridge across the western Gulf of Mexico and south Texas. Subsidence will continue to prevail across deep south Texas tonight into Friday even as the upper level ridge shifts slightly eastward across the Gulf of Mexico Fri afternoon. the pressure gradient will increase across the lower Texas coast Fri afternoon and this will provide breezy conditions across the CWA especially across the coastal sections.
The mid-latitude cyclone in the upper Great Lakes is undergoing cyclogenesis and will swing its sfc cold front across the region quickly overnight resulting in the chance for showers.
228 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2020 A fast moving cold front will move across central Pennsylvania Friday morning. A gusty northwest flow of much drier air will follow the cold front Friday morning.
251 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020 Partial clearing has allowed temperatures to warm into the lower to mid 80s, with lower to mid 60s dewpoints situated across far southeast OK into western AR. A ribbon of SBCAPES around 1000-2000 J/kgs is expected to develop by late afternoon ahead of a southward surging cold front. The cold front should become stationary across northern TX, with the bulk of showers/thunderstorms remaining generally south of I-40 into Friday morning.
Synoptically, region remains under the influence of the WWD extension of a SW Atlantic Ridge. A weakening surface cold front tries to approach the region from the northwest late in the period and may force a few light rainshowers tomorrow afternoon north of Highway 84 (and generally west of I-65). Lows overnight will range in the lower 60s deg(F).
A warm front extends across Southeast Missouri, into Western Kentucky and into Middle and East Tennessee. A trailing cold front extends southwest into Eastern Oklahoma and into the Red River Valley of Texas. Regional WSR- 88D radar trends indicate the showers and thunderstorms that developed along and just ahead of the warm front have since moved north and east of the area. Short term models including Convective Model Allowing solutions (CAMs) indicate the aforementioned cold front will drop southeast into the Mid-South tonight.
1024 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2020 Water vapor imagery highlights a large mid-upper level ridge complex reaching north from Central America. The lower tropospheric ridge axis stretches west across Florida. A western North Atlantic ridge axis extending across Florida will be maintained over the next few days.
651 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020 A cold front will continue moving southeast through Arkansas tonight.
The more impactful weather concern tonight is a cold front draped across W Kentucky and E Arkansas that is expected to reach NW Alabama around midnight and continue to move south and east through the early morning hours. The aforementioned cold front will continue to track southward on Friday with zonal flow aloft. With ongoing scattered showers and drizzle, morning temperatures near 60 will fall to the low 50s by the evening. Meanwhile, an intensifying sub-tropical jet will pull the cutoff low over the Baja Peninsula into the Southern Plains as it becomes an open wave trough.
530 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020 At 2 PM, a cold front extended from Diamond Lake WI to Oelwein IA. On Friday, high pressure will build across the region.
1044 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2020 A fast moving cold front will move across central Pennsylvania Friday morning. A gusty west flow of much drier air will follow the cold front.
We will continue to monitor this area during the next hour or so, but we may end up issuing a freezing fog advisory before midnight as upslope flow strengthens ahead of the upper level trof.
Warm and dry conditions continue as surface Atlantic high pressure extends over the Florida peninsula and a mid/upper ridge builds northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico toward the region. Meanwhile, a weakening cold front across the Tennessee river valley moves south into Georgia and Alabama on Friday. Above normal temperatures continue with lows tonight in the 50s and highs tomorrow in the low to mid 80s.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected through tonight as a low pressure system moves across Arizona.
Split upper-level flow persists across the CONUS with the short wave that produced a few thunderstorms this morning progressing across the mid Mississippi Valley and an upper low remaining just off the southern California coast. The cold front has made its way through the area which has increased winds and shifted them to the northwest.
A cold front is moving east through the region, with low level frontogenesis supporting scattered drizzle and light snow showers from the Minnesota Arrowhead through northern Wisconsin. Behind the cold front, partly to mostly cloudy skies with any leftover precipitation changing to snow as colder temperatures move into northern Minnesota. Overnight low temperatures will be in the mid teens to lower 20s, with slightly warmer temperatures over northern Wisconsin from the lingering cloud cover. High pressure moves into the region overnight and a broad ridge will keep skies partly cloudy on Friday.
602 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020 Breezy northwest winds are expected to decrease tonight as pressure gradient slackens and high pressure builds into the Central Plains.
1022 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2020 A fast moving cold front will move across central Pennsylvania Friday morning. A gusty west flow of much drier air will follow the cold front.
After a cold front swept through the area early this morning, strong northwesterly winds and a field of diurnal CU have been left in its wake on a pattern of cold air advection. As we move through the remainder of the late afternoon into the evening, high pressure will gradually nose into the western Dakotas. High pressure at the surface should give us a partly to mostly cloudy and dry day. Energy digging south along the west coast of the CONUS will provide the bump necessary to push an old southwest upper low east into the Plains.
728 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2020 Aviation - A period of showers this evening - Windy late tonight and Friday - Lengthy dry period starting Friday -- A period of showers this evening -- Narrow cold frontal rain band comes through later this evening leading to a 2-3 hour period of showers for many locations. -- Windy late tonight and Friday -- Gusty winds will accompany the cold frontal passage later this evening/overnight, with gusts of 35-40 mph from the west.
East Central Florida Forecast Discussion 823 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2020 High pressure located proximate to the local area has led to an early collapse of diurnal winds. High pressure aloft building over the Gulf of Mexico will continue warm and dry conditions. Highs climbing to the mid 80s for interior locations, while an afternoon seabreeze caps coastal areas to the low 80s. Favorable boating conditions continue as high pressure dominates the area.
Ongoing convection is expected to remain south of KMLC and KFSM as the cold front continues to push southeast through the region this evening. /Issued 251 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020/ Partial clearing has allowed temperatures to warm into the lower to mid 80s, with lower to mid 60s dewpoints situated across far southeast OK into western AR. A ribbon of SBCAPES around 1000-2000 J/kgs is expected to develop by late afternoon ahead of a southward surging cold front. The cold front should become stationary across northern TX, with the bulk of showers/thunderstorms remaining generally south of I-40 into Friday morning.
A narrow line of showers was accompanying the cold front that was pushing east, roughly along the MS River at 6 pm. Total rainfall amounts with this batch of showers along the cold front is anticipated to be light, with most locations receiving less than a tenth. Models have a very low amount of instability pooling along the cold front, but the overall threat for thunder/lightning is very low. Winds: West to northwest winds will increase this afternoon and evening behind the cold front with gusts up to 35 mph possible. Friday Cooler and breezy conditions are expected with highs in the mid 40s northeast to near 50F southwest.
Short wave ridging breaks down on Friday ahead of a deep trough digging south from BC. The trough closes off into a deep closed low by Friday night and will drift slowly southward off the coast through the weekend. This anomalous cold upper low will bring the potential for widespread precipitation, heavy mountain snow, gusty winds, and significantly cooler temperatures this weekend.
Most of the high resolution model simulated composite radar reflectivities indicate occasional snow showers passing through far southwest North Dakota mainly between 05z-10z Friday.
545 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2020 A poorly defined warm front is trying to progress north through KY late today. The main limiting factor is the degree of instability, and the fact that it is not surface based north of the warm front. It's looking like instability over east KY will be fairly weak tonight, but could become nearly surface based before the low passes by to our north and its cold front arrives late tonight. Once the cold front passes, rain will taper off from northwest to southeast late tonight, followed by decreasing clouds on Friday. Surface ridging behind the front will keep us dry through friday night. An area of low pressure aloft approaching from the southern Plains may bring widespread rainfall to eastern Kentucky over the weekend.
952 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020 Cold front has cleared all but far southeast Oklahoma at this time.
Slow moving low pressure off the southern California coast will bring rain and a few thunderstorms to areas along and southeast of a line from Death Valley to Rachel through Friday.