Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
217 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015 THE 19Z IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A LINGERING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT 500 MILLIBARS WAS THE CULPRIT TODAY INVOLVING THE INCREASING AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND INTO NORTH ALABAMA.
BUT GIVEN THE LOW THREAT HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE PLAINS STATES TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
SATELLITE SHOWING AN UPPER LOW OVER NW WY WITH A LOBE OF VORT APPARENTLY ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW OVER SW WY. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD OPEN THIS EVENING AND DRIFT EAST THUS EXPECT SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTORMS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS MONTANA OVERNIGHT THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING. UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN ACROSS THE CWA WITH A FEW WEAK STORMS POSSIBLE IN MODEST INSTABILITY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CLEAR OUT FRIDAY EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
359 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
LIKEWISE SUPPRESSING TEMPERATURES KEEPING THEM IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WHILE DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
643 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
141 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE. WHILE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENS. A WEAKENING INVERTED TROF WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE DISSIPATED AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE IT APPEARS MID LVL DRYING ASSOC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION FRIDAY.
551 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015 19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT EXTENDING ALONG A QUINCY TO PARIS LINE. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT A MORE HUMID AIRMASS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE APPROACHING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.
EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE FEATURES AIDED BY MULTIPLE IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING AND SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA. EARLY THIS MORNING A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS PARKED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FORCING NEEDED TO KICK THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH NORTH DAKOTA AS A COLD FRONT.
THE WESTERN RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC.
WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER GIVEN INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED RAIN POTENTIAL. UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEA BOARD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE PLAINS STATES BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING TROUGH WILL CROSS IDAHO INTO WYOMING TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. THE PATTERN SHIFTS TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN.
OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION PUSHED INTO THE TX PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN OK WITH RETURN FLOW ALREADY ALLOWING FOR RECOVERY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT IS SET TO SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRI. WITH THE COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS REMAINING AND ASSOCIATED LIMITED CAPPING. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE OVER THE OZARK REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS UPPER RIDGING FINALLY SETS UP OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
315 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015 19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT EXTENDING ALONG A QUINCY TO PARIS LINE. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT A MORE HUMID AIRMASS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE APPROACHING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.
252 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS A RESULT OF A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY OVER WESTERN WY. THERE IS A CLIPPER IN SASKATCHEWAN AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO NORTHERN MT. THOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME VERY WEAK DIURNAL ACTIVITY OVER OUR WESTERN MTNS AND FOOTHILLS PER WEAK PACIFIC ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BUILDING FLAT UPPER RIDGE.
400 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
431 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
314 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
244 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY.
KEEPING JUST SOME LOW POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS TOWARD MORNING.
WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTING EAST TWD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST.
134 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER, AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER IN FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
Trends over the past hour have been for this activity to weaken as it loses what little instability it had to work with due to the low-level clouds we had through much of the day.
229 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015 225 PM CDT THE FORECAST AREA FINDS ITSELF BETWEEN TWO STATIONARY FRONTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. THIS RIDGE HAS ALLOWED A LAKE BREEZE WITH LAKESIDE COOLING AT THE CHICAGO SHORE ABOUT 14 DEGREES COOLER THAN INLAND AT ORD/MDW AS OF 200 PM. THE FRONT OF INTEREST FOR OUR AREA TONIGHT WILL BE THE ONE TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EASTWARD HAS INFLUENCED A SOUTHEAST FLOW. OVERALL FLOW WILL ALSO THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST EARLY FRIDAY.
LONGER TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MEAN EASTERN TROF AND RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST. WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THERMAL TROF PUSHES EAST OF THE STATE.
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TAF SITES TONIGHT.
TRANSITORY RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH TO IMPACT THE REGION ARRIVES TO WESTERN UTAH. MODELS ARE STAYING CONSISTENT BRINGING THE WESTERN UTAH WAVE ACROSS OUR CWA THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A RE-ENFORCING WAVE THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL HELP CARVE OUT THE TROUGH A BIT.
A cold front will ease south through all area terminals tonight and Wednesday morning.
An upper level disturbance will cross the Central Plains late today as an area of high pressure at the surface builds into western Kansas.
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS TO DECOUPLE FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER MOST AREAS TONIGHT.
THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST WILL REMAIN UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OFFSHORE.
WHILE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO FFG BEING ON THE HIGH SIDE.
a large scale trough will continue to move northeast across the nation's mid section today. Cyclonic flow and low level thermal troughing do not look to relent until late this afternoon and moreso this evening.
LOOK FOR THIS TO MOVE BACK EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND DISSIPATE AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST. THE MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETTING UP ALONG THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN US THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW A COUPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COMING OVER THIS RIDGE AND ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
1116 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 1020 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/ THE COLD FRONT WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA STRETCHES SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN ARKANSAS/WESTERN MS BORDER.
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN STORE FOR KANSAS ON THURSDAY.
219 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016 A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY. COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE AREA. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING THROUGH WESTERN TENNESSEE AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD. STRONG MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WARM IN THE LOW 70S MOST AREAS WITH STRONG SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW/RESULTING WARM ADVECTION. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S.
We'll soon say good-bye to the warm sector and it's early Spring-like temps as the associated cold front barrels east this evening. The extensive wrap around stratus deck will be slow to exit the CWA tomorrow due to the positive-tilted orientation of the departing trough. Gusty northwest winds on the backside of the low will diminish slowly from west to east late tonight. Combo of the clouds and moderately strong cold air advection will keep a lid on temperatures, likely not getting above freezing north of the MO River. The rest of the forecast through the weekend will be marked by a couple of fast moving upper troughs alternating with a flattening upper ridge between systems.
BUT CERTAINLY SUFFICIENT IN THIS HIGHLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT GIVEN A SUFFICIENT STORM CORE.
100 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016 STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TODAY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEB. A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS SD INTO EASTERN MT.
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. ONLY AN INCH OR SO EXPECTED ON THE HIGHER SLOPES. DESPITE DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALL LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. SHOULD STILL SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE HIGHER SLOPES IN THE MOUNTAINS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS GOING TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PICTURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A MEAN RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. EACH OF THE MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THE GFS AND NAM MOVE AN OPEN TROUGH OVER THE STATE WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS TEND TOWARDS A CLOSED CIRCULATION THAT IS A LITTLE SLOWER.
THE COLD FRONT WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA STRETCHES SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN ARKANSAS/WESTERN MS BORDER.
331 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
1047 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE BEST FORCING AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXITED THE AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING AND THE SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF TO VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AS THE LOW DEPARTS THE AREA.
1159 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST KANSAS WITH ASSOCIATED OCCLUSION EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE HIGHEST OF 8 FEET REPORTED IN EUSTIS IN EASTERN FRONTIER COUNTY. A LEE TROUGH FORMS ON THE HIGH PLAINS LATE FOR LIGHT WINDS.
GENERALLY WENT TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE LOWS NORTH OF I-40 WHERE CLOUDS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR AND THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE LOWS SOUTH OF I-40 WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. USED A MODEL BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS WITH A SLIGHT PREFERENCE TOWARDS THE COOLER NUMBERS. THINK HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.
TRAILING THE MAIN COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE STATE YESTERDAY. THIS BOUNDARY IS RESPONSIBLE FOR USHERING IN A NOTABLY COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE STATE. WITH TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK IN THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL BE OVER 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AND MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.
127 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016 STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TODAY.
EXITING THE RIDGES EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CLEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO ACCOMPANY THE COLDER AIR AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AND RIDGES. MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE BASE OF THE MUCH LARGER PARENT TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LARGER TROUGH. THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN PRETTY DRY.
410 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016 A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY. COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL LATE IN THE WEEKEND. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING THROUGH WESTERN TENNESSEE AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD. STRONG MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WARM IN THE LOW 70S MOST AREAS WITH STRONG SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW/RESULTING WARM ADVECTION. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN BECOME COOLER BEGINNING THURSDAY AS THE FRONT IS OFF TO THE EAST.
WINDS WILL ALSO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH.
AS THE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST THIS SNOW ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING AND DIMINISH.
THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS PRODUCING THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION AND HAS RECENTLY PASSED THE NEW ORLEANS METRO. A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS IS PUNCHING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.
411 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016 A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PRETTY POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR AREAS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY AND BE GENERALLY OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. WENT AT AND BELOW THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR BOTH LOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.
Have also increased winds overnight, but still may be on the low side. SHORT TERM: (Through Wednesday) A large low pressure system over the plains will continue lifting northeastward tonight, supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through the late afternoon and early evening hours. A cold front will also progress through the region during this time.
2 to 5 inches are expected with this system with the higher amounts from Western Plumas County northward. Thursday will be dry as high pressure builds over the region.
1124 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST KANSAS WITH ASSOCIATED OCCLUSION EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE HIGHEST OF 8 FEET REPORTED IN EUSTIS IN EASTERN FRONTIER COUNTY. A LEE TROUGH FORMS ON THE HIGH PLAINS LATE FOR LIGHT WINDS.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT KGUY WHILE VFR CONDITIONS EXIST AT KAMA AND KDHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER MOVING IN WITH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH.
A MID- LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND THIS MAY PROVIDE VARIABLE HIGH CLOUD COVER.
GFS STILL HINTS AT QPF FAR OUT INTO THE PLAINS LATE INTO THE PERIOD WITHIN THE N-NW FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A BUILDING RIDGE ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS AND HAVE THUS MADE EFFORTS TO ACCOMMODATE THIS SCENARIO FOR POPS AS WELL. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE REGION FROM LATE SAT THROUGH SUN.
SHORT TERM: (Through Wednesday) A large low pressure system over the plains will continue lifting northeastward tonight, supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through the late afternoon and early evening hours. A cold front will also progress through the region during this time.
An area of high pressure at the surface was in eastern Wyoming. Mature cyclone near Omaha accelerating away from SW KS. Northern areas on the snowpack will fail to reach freezing Wednesday afternoon. Weak high pressure ridge axis approaches on Thursday, allowing afternoon temperatures to moderate back to the mid to upper 40s, except 30s on the melting snowpack.
1102 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST KANSAS WITH ASSOCIATED OCCLUSION EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE HIGHEST OF 8 FEET REPORTED IN EUSTIS IN EASTERN FRONTIER COUNTY. A LEE TROUGH FORMS ON THE HIGH PLAINS LATE FOR LIGHT WINDS.
Surface cold front had made it completely through the CWA ending precipitation chances. With the cloud cover, temps will only fall into the low 30s.
THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING HAVOC TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH.
On Thursday the longwave trough axis will move eastward over the area leading to northwest flow aloft, but westerly flow in the lower levels. This will help advect warmer temperatures into the region causing highs to range from the mid 40s to mid 30s. The cooler temperatures will be in north central KS where there is some snow cover.
As a pair of long wave troughs pass through the region, some clipper-type systems will zip through the Midwest.
Skies will clear out this morning in dry air behind the departing cold front that brought us our rain last night. However the main upper trof will remain well to our west and a secondary surface trof will move in from the northwest this afternoon, bringing clouds back to the area. Definitely cooler than what we've seen the past few days, but normal for this time of year. On Thursday high pressure will nose in from the west and provide us with mostly sunny skies.
FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
326 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016 A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY. COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL LATE IN THE WEEKEND. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING THROUGH WESTERN TENNESSEE AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD. STRONG MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WARM IN THE LOW 70S MOST AREAS WITH STRONG SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW/RESULTING WARM ADVECTION. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN BECOME COOLER BEGINNING THURSDAY AS THE FRONT IS OFF TO THE EAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE MIDSOUTH AT THIS TIME. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE MIDSOUTH BEHIND THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER TROFS WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FIRST TROF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS S TX WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AS WELL. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPS.
324 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016 A cold front continues to sink south through the region tonight and is currently located near the Pecos River Valley at the time of this discussion. The upper trough that has brought us several days of windy conditions will finally shift east tomorrow followed by a brief period of weak upper ridging through Thursday night.
303 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016 The upper level trough that was the catalyst for yesterday's showers and thunderstorms, is swinging through the region this morning. These light rain and snow chances will continue through mid-morning before the upper level trough moves northeast into the Great Lakes region. The high pressure ridge will quickly shift east on Thursday and winds will return out of the southwest.
BUT CERTAINLY SUFFICIENT IN THIS HIGHLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT GIVEN A SUFFICIENT STORM CORE. COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE FINAL WAVE LOCATED COINCIDENT WITH THE COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MARKED BY WIND SHIFT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WORKS EAST AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGIN TO RECOVER. WILL BE A STRUGGLE TO SEE MUCH OF A RECOVERY TODAY AS DEEP SNOW COVER AND COOLER TEMPS LIMIT WARMING.
DRIER AIR WAS FILTERING IN BEHIND THE PRE-FRONTAL TROF IN WRN TN/MS, WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE MS RIVER. COLD ADVECTION WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROF FINALLY TRACKS THRU THE AREA.
WHICH SPEAKS TO THE TRANSITION TO THE LOW-END SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS ALABAMA.
Gusty northwest winds will likely persist overnight on backside of strong low pressure system currently lifting through the Upper Midwest.
EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 20S WITH SO MUCH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND AND THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.
353 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016 FROM THE SATELLITE VIEWPOINT WE FIND AN UPPER LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH A TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND HAS BEEN THE MAJOR PLAYER IN THE CURRENT PATTERN. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND NEAR 15 KNOTS AT THE MARINE STATIONS NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE THE HARBINGER TO PATTERN CHANGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A REINFORCING TROUGH WILL DROP ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE THURSDAY PROVIDING ADDED ENERGY TO THE TROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
227 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016 Primary Short and Medium Range deterministic guidance and GFS Ensemble are in fairly good agreement on slowly moving the leading edge of the trough shear axis through the WFO PAH forecast area this morning, with the main trough axis working through approximately 24 hours later.
EXITING THE RIDGES EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL RUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CLEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO ACCOMPANY THE COLDER AIR AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AND RIDGES. MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
352 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016 (Today and Tonight) Dry and cool weather will prevail today as cold air advection continues behind a cold front that moved south across the area overnight. Despite full sunshine, cold air advection will result in a chilly day, with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 40s north, to the lower 50s south. The colder MET guidance looks reasonable and went close to it for overnight lows, with most areas dropping off into the lower and middle 20s by daybreak Thursday.
WARMER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY EDGE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK ALLOWING FOR SOME MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES.