Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure will build over the region over the next few days with a warming and drying trend. GOES-16 water vapor imagery shows low pressure dropping south towards San Diego and a large anticyclone (high pressure center) off the Pacific Northwest coast drifting to the south.
351 PM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018 High pressure will continue to drift east over the next couple of days leading to another day of pleasant weather on Tuesday under clear skies.
221 PM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018 The solid wedge of drier and cooler air has effectively erased precipitation from north AL and southern TN. Despite the veering of the low level profile, low clouds look to remain in place through Tuesday night. The 5h ridge will have built from the central Gulf of Mexico into the southeast U.
19Z do show returns starting to fill-in across central IA coincident with the surface inverted trough and better mid-level moisture transport. These rains are expected to move into the area later this afternoon and evening, then quickly exit from west to east overnight with trough passage.
252 PM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Satellite imagery shows deep trough in western US and southwest flow from NM into IA/MO over deep moisture. Convection in isentropic lift over warm front moving over eastern MO and central IL through day today. Toward morning, cold front to be moving into central IL, with the heavy pcpn focus becoming more focused over the southeast parts of CWA, gradually weakening in the northwest 1/2. High pressure begins to build into the northwest sections.
A cold front will turn winds to the NE with a few hours of gusty winds behind the front tomorrow morning. Highs could well remain in the 50s in the OK PH while reaching the low to mid 70s in the south central TX PH.
306 PM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018 At the synoptic level, we will be within southwest flow as a deeply amplified positively tilted trough stretching from eastern Montana to southern California and headed east. Still appears that the mean trough will split as the northern branch takes off across the Northern Plains tonight and the southern part will be a closed low centered somewhere over Arizona. Although the increased wind speed will make it feel quite cool tonight, the increased mixing from the wind along with the continued sky cover will keep minimum temperatures in the lower to mid 30s and probably no colder.
Rain chances will be increasing starting tomorrow (highest POPS to the north to lower POPS at the coast) as the main upper low/ trof approaches the state from the west. Progged PWs up to 2" along with the strong dynamics with the upper low and the cold front all hinting that things are on track for some very active weather. The building upper ridge out west will translate to increasingly NW flow aloft and quieter/drier weather for the end of the week/weekend.
Warmer temperatures will come by Tuesday with highs back into the 50s, but will also be a windy day by the afternoon. Lift with this warm front coming in looks to very weak, so I elected to go with mainly a snow shower forecast for the mountains and sprinkles down in the valleys. /SVH 18Z TAFs: A warm front is beginning to push east of the Cascade Mtns late this morning.
Building high pressure just off of the West Coast will result in a warming trend along with dry weather conditions through late week.
227 PM MDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Tonight a largely dry northwest flow aloft will build in in the wake of an exiting upper trough. Cloud cover will be on the increase, as well potential for showers by Tuesday evening as a cold front pushes through.
310 PM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Low pressure center remains along Kansas/Oklahoma border with warm front extending eastward, mainly along I-70 corridor in MO. Short range models still want to push the warm front north of forecast area by 00Z with warm moist southwest flow continuing aloft. They will remain steady or rise some this evening as warm front lifts north. On Wed, southern stream trough will move east across the southern US with southerly wind ahead, ushering in Gulf moisture.
317 PM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Southwest flow aloft is in place across ND and MN, with a positively tilted trough over western ND. This may quickly dissipate as the main trough axis shifts east and dry/subsident air moves into our CWA this may quickly dissipate.
339 PM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018 High pressure will crest over the area through Tuesday.
We are still going with rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches within the higher band of qpf.
/issued 921 AM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018/ Showers, and a few thunderstorms, continue across northern portions of the Mid-South this morning along and north of an ill- defined warm front. Cool NE surface flow prevails across most of the Mid-South with temps ranging from the upper 30s toward Paris TN to the lower 50s over parts of North Mississippi. Expect scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms this morning as the surface front lifts back north as a warm front. An upper low over the SW US will continue to move east tonight with the upper ridge over the SE US building. Some warm advection showers may develop over western sections ahead an approaching cold front.
250 PM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Low pressure center remains along Kansas/Oklahoma border with warm front extending eastward, mainly along I-70 corridor in MO. Short range models still want to push the warm front north of forecast area by 00Z with warm moist southwest flow continuing aloft. They will remain steady or rise some this evening as warm front lifts north. On Wed, southern stream trough will move east across the southern US with southerly wind ahead, ushering in Gulf moisture.
230 PM MDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Just a few rain/snow showers occurring across the CWA this afternoon in association with an upper trough draped ne-sw across Wy. This trough will weaken slowly overnight as energy gets pulled southward to an upper low over AZ so expect pcpn to end and skies to gradually clear overnight. The next upper trough will begin to approach the CWA Tuesday night bringing a cool front into the CWA late and possibly a few snow showers to far northwest parts as well.
As precip moves across the area, dynamic cooling will modify wet bulb temps in the lower to mid levels to near 0C. Even so, more uncertainty exists due to forecast minimum temperatures tonight of 32-34 degrees, so freezing rain is possible. On top of that, even if temps are just above freezing, there is uncertainty about road temperatures due to the recent cold spell. If road surface temps fall below freezing, untreated roads will likely see ice accumulation.
The higher elevations, particularly mountain passes such as Lookout, Lolo and Marias, stand the best chance to see some accumulating snow, mainly in the overnight and early morning hours, both tonight and again Tuesday night.
At the surface, low is situated across south central KS with a warm front into west-central MO. The GFS is much faster with a strong cold front compared to the ECMWF. Will also maintain some fog as cooler air moves south and starts to mix with the higher low level moisture.
340 PM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Cloud cover out ahead of an upper level low approaching from the west and behind a cold front to the east which is draped from northeast Oklahoma down toward the Sweetwater area.
349 PM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018 A deep trough continues to spin over the southwest CONUS with a downstream ridge extending from the Gulf of Mexico into western New England. An attendant warm front has lifted north across the area with gusty south to southeast winds highlighting the warm sector environment across the Mid-South.
Late this evening, a cold front will begin to push through the area into early Tuesday morning. MUCAPE values by that time will have mostly diminished, though marginal values may support the development of small hail as the cold front continues to push southeast. Persistent southwest flow aloft ahead of a digging mid to upper-level trough over the Southwestern CONUS has allowed deep moisture fields to advect into the region. The LLJ ahead of the cold front is progged to position from southwest MO to east central MO. The cold front should also have a reasonable push as it crosses through the CWA, while increased MUCAPE values will coincide with the LLJ axis.
200 PM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018 High pressure builds into the the region through Tuesday.
A back-door type cold front will wash out across the eastern Gulf waters tonight.
Low pressure may return for the weekend with a few light showers, gusty winds and cooler temperatures possible. High pressure settling in over the region will allow the gusty winds over the Sierra Crest to persist into Tuesday morning.
148 PM MDT Mon Mar 26 2018 A large long-wave trough over the western/central CONUS, along with a northern Canada vortex, will dominate the weather through at least the next 7 days. Today's storm continues to wind down as a positively tilted trough over the northern high plains weakens. This trough will move east of the CWA tonight, associated with clearing skies and low-level warm advection.
High pressure nosing down the lee of the Appalachians overnight will continue to reinforce the moist and cool low-level airmass.
349 PM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Afternoon water vapor imagery shows closed upper low over southern CA, with a broad and moist southwesterly flow aloft across the southern and central Plains. Latest mesoanalysis places cold front into northwest Oklahoma, with gusty northwest winds from Medford to Seiling, with a dryline mixing into southwest Oklahoma southwest into Texas.
A cold front will move south into the Big Country Tuesday evening, and make slow progress into our central counties Tuesday night.
A low pressure system will move across Arizona today and Tuesday, bringing colder weather and a chance for rain and snow showers. A low pressure trough is approaching Arizona this morning and will move into the state later this afternoon.
Low level flow will still be cross terrain tomorrow which should produce highs notably warmer than today, with some mid 60s possible for areas northeast of Knoxville to around the Tri- Cities area.
Weather begins to go downhill on Tuesday with the approach of the upper level low and the frontal boundary. Cooler northern areas on Tuesday due to the greater cloud cover. Less wind Tuesday night should be temperatures being a tad cooler but still warm and humid.
Rain chances will be increasing starting tomorrow (highest POPS to the north to lower POPS at the coast) as the main upper trof approaches the state from the west. Progged PWs up to 2" along with the strong dynamics with the upper low and the cold front all hinting that things are on track for some very active weather. The building upper ridge out west will translate to increasingly NW flow aloft and quieter/drier weather for the end of the week/weekend.
Trough across the desert southwest is allowing abundant moisture to stream northward into the Southern Plains allowing scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning and early afternoon. Additionally, a cold front is slowly sagging southward and will move into the area by Tuesday morning.
242 PM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Warmer temperatures are expected this week. Sunny conditions this afternoon are expected to persist into the evening as the upper-level ridge axis passes overhead. Strong southeasterly flow will bring clouds, and cooler temperatures along the eastern facing slopes of the higher elevations. Meanwhile, clouds associated with the warm front will move into upper Ohio Valley. At this time, expecting precipitation associated with the warm front to be predominatly rain, beginning in the pre-dawn hours. As a result, confidence remains too low to issue any Winter Weather Advisory for patchy light freezing rain near dawn Tuesday. The first such break should come Tuesday evening/night in the wake of the lifting warm front.
Upper trough gradually working its way east across the region. Temperatures at 850mb remain well above freezing through most of the night with some instability indicated in the progs.
640 PM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018 High pressure will control our weather through Tuesday morning. High pressure will keep fair weather over the region through Tuesday afternoon, before a frontal system sliding into the Great Lakes brings increasing clouds and rain showers to the region. While all places should start as rain in the afternoon a change to freezing rain can not be ruled out in spots by the evening particularly east of Binghamton.
148 PM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Upper trough coming in from the west will slowly progress east the next couple of days.
1255 PM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018 A wet day is expected as closed low pressure across southwest KS opens and moves northeast, becoming an inverted trough/surface cold front through the day. We finally get to see the sun again on Tuesday with decreasing clouds, northwesterly surface winds, and highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s high high pressure moving in.
Expect fair weather with above average temperatures through the holiday weekend as a high pressure ridge is maintained along the west coast. Arizona remains under a northwesterly flow with high pressure over the west coast and a large scale trough draped across much of the central U.
438 PM MST Sat Dec 23 2017 Upper level analysis has large trof across much of the CONUS thanks to a stationary deep Hudson Bay low.
In addition, some freezing fog/dz/br and -sn will be possible. Any precipitation should be short lived, but confidence is fairly high that temperatures should remain at or below freezing from OUN northward. A cold front will result in a brisk wind shift from the north from 09-12Z for all terminals.
While the weak surface wave associated with troughing aloft passes to our south, the combination of jet-level divergence juxtaposed with modest 600-800 mb frontogenetic forcing and moisture within the dendritic growth zone should allow for light snow to clip our southeast during the late morning to early afternoon tomorrow. Deep mid level trough to swing through this period with some jet dynamics at play.
Water Vapor Satellite shows cyclonic flow aloft as a ridge builds into the West Coast. Mountain ridges continue to gust strongly aided by the aforementioned mid level subsidence inversion. A longwave trough encompasses much of the CONUS this afternoon, while a mid level ridge remains in place just off the Pacific Coast. The models continue to sweep a warm front from west to east across the forecast area late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Will likely need a winter wx advisory for the higher terrain and potentially far northern valleys as well.
Strong high pressure aloft was centered west of northern Baja California near 30N/125W this afternoon, and a ridge axis extended northward adjacent the West Coast. Broken mainly cirriform clouds were moving over the ridge axis and spilling southeastward into southeast Arizona.
Light south to southwest winds will turn northerly with a passing cold front. /issued 217 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2017/ (Tonight and Sunday) Temperatures have rebounded nicely today after a cool start with most of west central Texas getting down to less than freezing this morning. This will drive a strong cold front through the area during the day tomorrow. No precipitation is expected with the cold front as it moves through, but we may see some low clouds along and behind the front for an hour or two, mainly in the Big Country. Highs will be 10 to 20 degrees cooler tomorrow than what we see this afternoon. The coldest morning looks to be on Christmas with lows in the lower to mid 20s, due to excellent radiational cooling and a dry airmass, behind a strong cold front.
As an upper level low spins over extreme northeastern Manitoba, the region will remain in a cyclonic flow regime. These light snow showers will continue through the evening and overnight hours ahead of an arctic cold front that will push into North Dakota from Canada on Sunday.
644 PM EST Sat Dec 23 2017 Cooler air behind a cold front tonight and Sunday. Strong upper level trough reinforces cold air for Christmas eve/Christmas, with a quick dose of snow. Moderate to heavy rainfall is pulling out of the region with cold front pressing through. Tomorrow will be cooler with mostly quiet conditions early, then upper trough approaches tomorrow afternoon with rain and snow showers developing.
530 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2017 Tranquil early winter night on tap as broad North American upper trough continues to establish itself. With weaker short wave trough dropping south, associated front will be working closer and closer. Main arctic cold front will move through the area on Christmas eve.
Second, strong LLWS will overspread the region this evening at all TAF sites ahead of a strong cold front. Third, this cold front will move through the area around 12-14Z Sunday morning bringing a wind shift to the north-northeast with sustained speeds between 18-24kt. A cold front associated with a disturbance translating from the northern Rockies into the Central Plains will plunge through the South Plains early Sunday morning. Some form of cyclonically curved northwesterly to westerly flow aloft will then persist across the central and eastern states through the remainder of the forecast, with ridging out west.
917 PM EST Sat Dec 23 2017 Cooler air behind a cold front tonight and Sunday. Strong upper level trough reinforces cold air for Christmas eve/Christmas, with a quick dose of snow. Moderate to heavy rainfall is pulling out of the region with cold front pressing through. Tomorrow will be cooler with mostly quiet conditions early, then upper trough approaches tomorrow afternoon with rain and snow showers developing.
VFR conditions will prevail as high pressure begins to take control of our weather. Winds have already started to decrease across the low Rio Grande Valley and should remain rather light and variable through the remainder of the period. The ridge spreads east Sunday with very light winds, continued dry conditions and warming temperatures.
The cold front is moving into the far northern Red River Valley, but is a fairly slow mover.
709 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2017 Adjusted POPs for snow showers moving south along and ahead of the cold front dropping south. The cold front is moving into the far northern Red River Valley, but is a fairly slow mover.
600 PM EST Sat Dec 23 2017 Its shaping up to be a white Christmas as low pressure takes aim on the region Christmas Eve with light snow continuing into Christmas morning especially in the mountains. Temperatures likewise are falling to near freezing as within the last couple of hours of precipitation so grassy light accumulations are becoming common basically from Pittsburgh northward. There is still a minimal potential for freezing drizzle in the ridges as deeper moisture exits to the east and upslope flow continues. The moist depth does decrease fairly markedly after 00z everywhere, including the ridges, which brings the top of the moist layer down to roughly -8C or so. While this won't facilitate dendrite growth, some inefficient ice processes may continue to favor irregular crystal growth over freezing drizzle.
Light and variable winds overnight will become gusty NW to N in the wake of a dry reinforcing cold front during the day Sunday. High temperatures so far this afternoon range from the lower to mid 50s inland to the upper 50s at the coast. Slightly warmer temperatures can be expected tomorrow ahead of the next cold front with a majority of the area (especially central and south) reaching the lower to mid 60s.
Restricted accumulations to mainly the higher elevations with this update and removed accumulations from the valley. Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 51 26 40 / 0 20 20 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 39 51 25 38 / 10 20 40 10 Oak Ridge, TN 39 52 24 38 / 10 30 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 38 48 23 34 / 10 30 50 10.
The ridge of high pressure over the southeastern half of SD early this afternoon will slowly exit the weather picture as a trough of low pressure currently just north of the U.
Otherwise, light winds tonight to become northwest at 15 knots and gusty on Sunday as high pressure rebuilds across the region. /issued 357 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2017/ A chilly day under the low clouds for most of the cwa. The clouds will linger and continue to slowly move Eastward overnight with more in and out with another cold front on approach for Sunday.
Once this trough axis passes through the northern reaches of Utah and Colorado this evening, snow will gradually come to an end as the weak Pacific moisture connection is shut off for the time being. Precipitation should come to an end around Midnight in most locations, with the highest elevations along the Park and Gore range holding on to a few snow showers ending around dawn Sunday.
1016 PM EST Sat Dec 23 2017 Mild night will continue in southwest flow ahead of a slow moving cold front. SREF probabilities for dense fog have come down a bit and are now more in the 20-50% range with the higher probs along and west of the I-75 corridor. MVFR ceilings are still possible on Sunday ahead of a slow moving cold front.
A cold front will make its way south through the southeast plains tonight. MOS guidance has been showing some strong winds behind the cold front and we currently have 40-45 mph winds in the forecast.
Worthy to note, latest model guidance does support some areas of light valley freezing fog, especially in and around deeper valleys of Meagher and Broadwater Counties.
Cold front has finally cleared the mid state with high pressure now building in from the northwest. High pressure will remain situated to our west for the foreseeable future so that the cold air will be reinforced beginning tomorrow night as lows drop well into the 20's.
543 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2017 A weak cold front slides south across northern Minnesota today bringing another round of clouds and light snow today into this evening for parts of northern Minnesota. Mostly cloudy overnight as the cold front slows down, though as it crosses the international border from the north tonight there may be clearing skies for parts of far northern Minnesota. High pressure builds in from the northern Plains east into the Upper Midwest on Sunday leading to partly sunny skies.
Upper ridge remains in place with dry and mild conditions, although abundant high clouds are streaming over ridge. Frontal system over the eastern Pacific will begin moving through the ridge Sunday. Ridge will restrengthen into early week with dry conditions and mild temperatures. Skies will be mostly cloudy at times as high clouds continue to stream through ridge.
Light north winds will become variable tonight as the weak high pressure ridge will be along the coast. Winds will become light southwest to west on Sunday in advance of the next cold front.
A high pressure ridge sagging into south Florida will produce a light southwest low level wind flow, except light/variable in the south near the ridge axis. Boundary layer flow may pick up close to 10 mph in the north, ahead of a cold front moving slowly across the Florida panhandle. The HRRR model has only been indicating patchy fog, so confidence is not high enough to pick which interior terminals will be most significantly affected, though KLEE should have the highest chance for IFR-LIFR. Boating conditions look good as the axis of Atlantic high pressure ridge extends across our southern waters.
Sfc obs trends showing lows around the Nashville Metropolitan Area may be slightly warmer than previously anticipated. Looks like there could be some accumulations across the Upper Cumberland Region, approaching up to around one half inch across the higher elevations of the northern portions of the Upper Cumberland Region during the evening hours. With main upper level trough passage not expected across region until after 24/24Z. Initial light N sfc winds are expected, but as high pressure influences become more sly based, a switch to SW to W direction is anticipated.
Winds will decrease overnight tonight but increase again tomorrow afternoon as a second cold frontal boundary approaches.