Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures will be very similar to yesterday, maybe a degree or two cooler thanks to cloud cover and that's about it. With the warmer nature of the system, ratios won't be much above 10:1.
149 AM MST Tue Nov 22 2022 Current surface map places stalled backdoor cold front across central South Dakota. A few inches of snow is likely, with a low chance(20-30%) for accumulations greater than 4 inches in the higher elevations. For the plains, the main impact will be strong northwest winds behind the cold front with 3-4mb/3hr pressure rises and 40kt+ winds in the mixed layer. After a dry and cooler Thanksgiving day, warmer than average temperatures will return for the weekend.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed an area of low pressure in the vicinity Hudson Bay with a cold front that extended southwest through east-central WI to the central Plains. A weak area of high pressure was situated over ND. Otherwise, the high pressure is forecast to slide southeast across the region later this evening. Max temperatures should mainly be in the lower 30s north-central WI, middle to upper 30s elsewhere.
1003 PM EST Mon Nov 21 2022 Onshore flow coupled with a moist coastal trough will continue to provide favorable conditions for isolated to scattered shower development tonight, especially over the Atlantic waters and along the coast. The clouds will also help keep temperatures a bit warmer than normal, with overnight lows in the mid 60s to low 70s across east central Florida.
302 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2022 Mid level trough amplification is forecast across the central Rockies Wednesday/Wednesday night downstream of an upper jet streak now diving into the Pacific Northwest. Cloud cover today and tonight will mainly be periodic mid and high clouds associated with the passage of low amplitude northern stream trough. The southerly flow will help drive warmer air into Se Mi today, although a 925mb thermal gradient across srn Mi will support a respectable range in high temps from mid/upper 40s in the south to upper 30s in the north. Mid level heights will then build across Lower Mi Wed into Thanksgiving with the upstream long wave trough amplification. Medium range model solutions have converged on a solution with respect to the long wave trough over the Rockies.
Mostly cloudy, cooler and breezy Thanksgiving Day, but minimal impacts expected for travel.
1056 PM CST Mon Nov 21 2022 (This afternoon through Tuesday) High pressure over the southeastern and eastern US will remain through the short term. Moisture and warmer air will advect into the area. High temperatures will be in the low 50s to low 60s today. Low temperatures tonight will be in the low 30s to low 40s. though the low levels will be very dry and should limit much precip reaching the ground Tuesday afternoon.
Mostly clear afternoon with continued dry high pressure across the region.
115 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2022 High pressure centered south of the area will keep the region dry through Thanksgiving while a warming trend occurs.
Flattened/nearly zonal flow aloft is expected to linger through mid week before a trough begins digging south across the Rockies. The flatter flow will allow temperatures to warm near to slightly above average, compared to the much colder temperatures experienced over the past week with broad troughing. This pattern and associated surface ridging forecast to build across the area will keep fairly quiet and dry conditions in place. Lows will warm from the low to mid 20s tonight to the mid and upper 30s by Wednesday night. High temperatures will warm from the low 50s today to the low 60s for Wednesday afternoon.
There was some light freezing rain over parts of eastern Saskatchewan in the Broadview region but those echoes are moving into SW Manitoba and not affecting ND at the present. The chances for a dusting up to an inch of accumulation will be possible mainly north of the highway 200 corridor. The morning will be cloudy with light snow tapering off on the MN side, but think we should see some sunshine in the afternoon, which will nudge the highs closer or even up to the freezing mark. The pattern initially is progressive with upper ridging over the Dakotas and a vigorous short wave digging in across the Rockies. The pattern then becomes more of a split jet regime as the trof develops into a closed low over the southern Rockies.
1219 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2022 High pressure remains over the area into the middle of the week. Week low pressure slides off the Southeast coast Tuesday night through Wednesday. A deep trough moves towards the area by the end of the week, bringing a chance of rain.
Large area of strong high pressure remains centered over the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Western Great Lakes region early this morning. A look upstream shows a warm front tracking eastward thru the Dakotas. This warm front will lift thru Michigan today into this evening.
304 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2022 Dry and zonal flow aloft will combine with high pressure at the surface to continue a clear and dry stretch for our area.
Zonal flow will advect slightly warmer air into the region resulting in high temperatures in the 30s for the most part.
In addition, dewpoints still look to increase ahead of the next trough, so afternoon relative humidity levels looks to be more in the moderate levels.
1207 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2022 Cloud cover has expanded across the region this morning as a weak cold front pushed through. In areas that do see some clearing lows could dip into the low teens to single digits. Areas near Lake Superior though should only bottom out near 20F given the warmer lake's influence. Tuesday is expected to be the coolest day, with temperatures in the low to mid 30s.
Plenty of sun, slightly warmer 925mb temps near 4C, and a dry ground will boost afternoon highs into the upper 40s and lower 50s. This is a few degrees warmer than yesterday and near the higher end of model guidance.
745 PM PST Mon Nov 21 2022 A weak trough aloft will move over SoCal through Tuesday, weakening the winds, and bringing more high clouds.
947 PM CST Mon Nov 21 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) Current upper trough should transition to the east and flatten over the Southeastern U. Southerly flow in the lower-levels will maintain our warming trend bringing temperatures up to seasonably average for late November, with highs near to lower 60s by Tuesday afternoon. The mercury tonight in areas along and east of the I-44 corridor may rise a few degrees above freezing tonight/early Tuesday. Temperatures across few areas with fog may briefly drop to freezing, so can't rule out embedded freezing fog for a short period in some areas. Although mostly confined to our southern CWA, could also see patchy fog/freezing fog develop across northcentral Oklahoma as well.
Water vapor imagery highlights a mean-layer ridge rooted in the central Caribbean extending northeast into the central North Atlantic. More than 4" of rain fell in Florida Bay, portions of the Middle and Upper Keys, and across large sections of the Straits south of the Seven Mile Bridge, then east-northeast into the coastal waters adjacent to the Upper Keys. High pressure over the southeastern United States will continue to elongate and move into the Atlantic, and the broad area of low pressure over the south central Gulf of Mexico will weaken.
341 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2022 High pressure centered south of the area will keep the region dry into Thanksgiving day while a warming trend occurs.
A cold front will dip down from the north on Thanksgiving bringing locally gusty northeasterly winds and cooler temperatures.
1258 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2022 High pressure brings dry weather and mild days through the middle of the week.
Freezing temperatures in the rural portions of the San Joaquin Valley are expected once again this morning. Near freezing conditions with frost in the valley will continue through the remainder of this week. Warmer than average afternoon highs with dry weather are expected through the weekend.
348 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2022 High pressure will remain nearby through the middle of the week. Low pressure will approach from the south and west this weekend. Zonal flow will persist aloft today, with high pressure shifting just offshore at the surface. Temperatures will moderate to near seasonal normals, with highs in the low to mid 50s in most spots. Wednesday will feature much of the same as today, with zonal flow aloft and high pressure remaining in control at the surface.
1041 PM CST Mon Nov 21 2022 A transitory upper ridge is currently moving onto the Pacific Coast, which places Nebraska in broad northwest flow aloft. At the surface, high pressure controls much of the Plains and Midwest, resulting in fair skies and light winds here. A cold front crosses the forecast area late Wednesday, which will bring scattered snow showers to northwest Nebraska and blustery winds everywhere on Thanksgiving. Weak WAA occurs at H85 overnight with a period of downslope flow and a subtle thermal ridge nearby. Went ahead and sided with the cooler end of guidance for min temps. Forecast lows range from the mid teens in the Platte River Valley to the lower 20s north central. The upper ridge quickly pushes across the Rockies and lines up with the High Plains by early evening.
114 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2022 High pressure brings dry weather and mild days through the middle of the week.
Deeper albeit modest low level moisture flux is expected on Wednesday ahead of the developing upper trof digging across the northern/central Rockies. The main change in the forecast begins on Thanksgiving Day with most guidance now supporting the slower/further southwest development of a closed upper low over the southern high Plains.
As of 2 AM most locations were still in the mid to upper 20s except for the typical cool spots currently sitting in the low 20s. Tuesday is expected to be the coolest day, with temperatures in the low to mid 30s.
This scenario should keep overnight a little bit more warmer than the past few days. Lows should be ranging from the upper 50s north to the lower 70s south, a remain trough the end of the week. Plenty of moisture continues to increase in the low and mid levels, resulting in a better chance of showers for Tuesday.
A northwest flow aloft will prevail through Tuesday before the arrival of a Pacific trough Tuesday night. There should be enough clearing for patchy late night trough morning valley fog. Winds will increase in some areas during the afternoon ahead of the trough, but not enough to scour out the inversion. Cooler air aloft and northwest winds will follow a fast-moving low pressure system on Wednesday that will briefly weaken the inversion.
The low stratus off to the north and west is not expected to reach KMSP at this point so have removed MVFR mention.
952 PM MST Mon Nov 21 2022 Mostly clear skies continue today and tonight as large-scale ridging remains over the region. Scattered high cirrus could keep lows a bit warmer, but continued to nudge the forecast towards persistence to capture the much-cooler-than-model-forecast lows that have been observed the past several mornings due to strong cold pools.
Discussion: A weak cold front has stalled near the I-35 corridor and only really distinguishable by the disruption in winds north of the front while southwesterly winds still prevail to the south of the front. The front has not had a noticeable impact to temperatures this afternoon with readings on both sides of the front in the lower to mid 50s. The front will washout by tonight as high pressure moves in overnight. Models are finally trying to settle on a solution of deepening a Pacific Northwest trough over the central Rockies.
334 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2022 High pressure and very dry air will cover the region through Wednesday.
1242 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2022 High pressure will build over the region through mid week while a series of weak low pressure systems move off the Southeast U.
Starting Wednesday morning, the NAM indicates a shallow but saturated layer forms and without cloud ice, it could produce freezing drizzle. The 3km NAM is not as aggressive as the 12km NAM, so have backed off on the longevity of fzdz in our forecast, but still left it in for the most likely period 12Z Thu to 00Z Fri when a trough crosses adding some depth to the low level saturated layer. A brief period of freezing drizzle is possible just prior to and just after the main area of snow moves through due to lack of deeper moisture. Winds will intensify today as the next weak area of low pressure approaches, but for the most part will remain below 20 kts for gusts.
Starting Wednesday morning, the NAM indicates a shallow but saturated layer forms and without cloud ice, it could produce freezing drizzle. The 3km NAM is not as aggressive as the 12km NAM, so have backed off on the longevity of fzdz in our forecast, but still left it in for the most likely period 12Z Thu to 00Z Fri when a trough crosses adding some depth to the low level saturated layer. Winds will intensify today as the next weak area of low pressure approaches, but for the most part will remain below 20 kts for gusts.
Some high cloudiness associated with a trough of low pressure passing through today will give way to mostly clear conditions tomorrow as it tracks east of the area. This uncertainty revolves around the future location and amplitude of a ridge of high pressure aloft over the western United States.
917 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2022 High pressure brings dry weather and mild days through the middle of the week.
Upper level disturbance should move over the region today and into Wednesday, while mid-level high pressure slowly moves off the Eastern Seaboard. Then, upper level ridge of high pressure begins to build from the west bringing lower rain chances just in time for Thanksgiving celebrations. However, humidity values should remain fairly high as moist airmass stays in place, and temperatures warm up as ridge continues to build. This could also mean cooler temperatures behind frontal boundaries associated with the systems.
Model soundings are still showing quite a bit of dry air in the lower levels, so most precipitation likely will evaporate before reaching the surface but still decided to go with some low PoPs with the CAMs pretty adamant on light rain possible. Otherwise still looking partly to mostly cloudy for Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 60s. Highs are forecast in the lower 70s for much of the area under partly to mostly sunny skies. Focus shifts to our west heading into Wednesday night as a longwave trough starts building into the Rockies, which will eventually become our next weather-maker.
(Today through Wednesday Night ) High pressure will bring largely dry conditions to the region the next couple of days. As the period progresses, a large trough will form and deepen in the Rockies, with a cutoff low forming in Colorado/New Mexico Wednesday night. A west/northwest flow in prior days will be replaced by a milder southwest flow ahead of the aforementioned trough.
545 AM CST Tue Nov 22 2022 (Today through Wednesday Night ) High pressure will bring largely dry conditions to the region the next couple of days. As the period progresses, a large trough will form and deepen in the Rockies, with a cutoff low forming in Colorado/New Mexico Wednesday night. A west/northwest flow in prior days will be replaced by a milder southwest flow ahead of the aforementioned trough.
559 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2022 High pressure centered south of the area will keep the region dry into Thanksgiving day while a warming trend occurs.
Some areas are even seeing temperatures near or below freezing. This could lead to a few slick spots on area bridges and overpasses so have gone ahead and issued another Freezing Fog Advisory through mid morning. Temperatures will stay above freezing in the fog across Terrell and lower Brewster counties so have a Dense Fog Advisory there. Fortunately, temperatures should stay above freezing for the most part.
Today through Wednesday Night A Pacific Northwest trough and cold front will make its way towards the Great Basin region today bringing increasing cloud cover from the northwest to Nevada. Northwest winds behind a cold front will pick up tonight mainly at higher elevation and mountain areas in Elko county. High temperatures today will rise above freezing in most valley locations with some 50s across northern Nye county. Lows tonight will be less cold as cloud cover moves in but still in the lower teens in most valleys.
Also, a few slick spots may develop on roads, especially bridges and overpasses due to temperatures at or a few degrees below freezing. Otherwise, look for slightly warmer temperatures with highs in the 50s to lower 60s with overnight lows in the 40s.
Meanwhile, a weak sfc lee trough will remain along the front range. For tonight, an upper level trough will approach from the northwest. Lee cyclogenesis will form over southeast Colorado as a surface cold front moves across northeast Colorado during the afternoon.
655 AM MST Tue Nov 22 2022 Freezing for advisory for Bear Lake Valley has been cancelled. Short term impact will be a freezing fog advisory is in effect for the Bear Lake Valley tonight with some visibility of 1/4 mile or less expected this morning. Tonight into Wednesday a Pacific trof will move through eastern Idaho with widespread light snow expected which may cause some minor travel impacts. Will be dry Wednesday night as upper level ridge builds in from the west.
These downsloping winds will help lead to temperatures warming a few degrees more than yesterday into the lower 60s.
448 AM CST Tue Nov 22 2022 Latest satellite imagery is showing mainly clear skies across Missouri and Illinois while the surface analysis showed high pressure centered over the Mid South with a front extending from the northern Plains to along the Iowa/Missouri border northeastward into southern Great Lakes. Britt While there is some differences between the GFS and the ECMWF/ Canadian on how quickly an upper low will move across the area this weekend, overall the models are in better agreement than they were 24 hours ago.
854 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2022 High pressure and very dry air will cover the region through Wednesday.
517 AM CST Tue Nov 22 2022 An upper trough that has brought light snow to eastern ND overnight will continue to exit to the east this morning. Upper ridging will build in over the northern Plains today bringing in warm and dry air. Winds will become more southerly on Wednesday ahead of a weak low pressure system that will move over central SD.
320 AM PST Tue Nov 22 2022 Another cold night/morning with frost and some areas dropping to freezing.
Dry and zonal flow aloft will combine with high pressure at the surface to continue a clear and dry stretch for our area.
542 AM CST Tue Nov 22 2022 Today: With the trough axis situated right along the MS River corridor & continued broad moist isentropic ascent, some light showers are ongoing this morning. For that reason, even with some dryness in the low levels & some trace precip being observed, added some mention of light rain & drizzle through mid-morning before clearing by midday. Highs will be near normal in the low-mid 60s.
552 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2022 High pressure and very dry air will cover the region through Wednesday.
Mid level trough amplification is forecast across the central Rockies Wednesday/Wednesday night downstream of an upper jet streak now diving into the Pacific Northwest. Cloud cover today and tonight will mainly be periodic mid and high clouds associated with the passage of low amplitude northern stream trough. The southerly flow will help drive warmer air into Se Mi today, although a 925mb thermal gradient across srn Mi will support a respectable range in high temps from mid/upper 40s in the south to upper 30s in the north. Mid level heights will then build across Lower Mi Wed into Thanksgiving with the upstream long wave trough amplification. Medium range model solutions have converged on a solution with respect to the long wave trough over the Rockies.
High pressure today will begin to weaken ahead of an approaching weather system off the Pacific northwest coastline. With inversions in place, a wintry mix of precipitation (snow, rain and freezing rain) is expected. However, the general pattern recognition leans towards the potential for freezing rain or drizzle, particularly with and behind the cold front when the dendritic layer dries out late tonight into Wednesday morning.
Overnight lows once again in the low to upper 60s.
518 AM MST Tue Nov 22 2022 A weak upper ridge sits over the Northern Rockies and will be broken down a bit with the next system as it moves east from the Pacific Northwest today. Incoming upper trof will begin to develop a Canadian low tonight. Warm front overriding any lingering cold air could produce some light precipitation in the southwest late tonight, but there will be a slightly better chance on Wednesday as a cold front drops south. For this reason have decided to include freezing rain possibility for Wednesday morning although impact should be limited.
357 AM CST Tue Nov 22 2022 Latest satellite imagery is showing mainly clear skies across Missouri and Illinois while the surface analysis showed high pressure centered over the Mid South with a front extending from the northern Plains to along the Iowa/Missouri border northeastward into southern Great Lakes. Britt While there is some differences between the GFS and the ECMWF/ Canadian on how quickly an upper low will move across the area this weekend, overall the models are in better agreement than they were 24 hours ago.
For the rest of today we expect temperatures to be near normal with highs in the low to upper 30s across central MN and western WI this afternoon. Further south, temperatures could warm into the lower 40s along the Interstate-90 corridor in southern MN. Temperatures will drop back into the mid to upper Teens overnight but a quick rebound is expected Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 40s.
Currently - High pressure aligned from Texas to the off the Mid Atlantic coast is driving gentle to moderate northeast to easterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters this morning. The lower tropospheric Atlantic ridge reaches westward across the southeast and Florida resulting in a moderate easterly steering flow with weak lift at best. Latest satellite imagery indicates precipitable water may have has begun to fall, with most of this drying occurring through the lower levels.
622 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2022 High pressure brings dry weather and mild days through the middle of the week.
Winds will turn more south to southwest tonight into Wednesday, with even warmer 850mb temperatures building in. Think with several days near the freezing mark, some crusting of the current fluffy snowpack will occur.
407 AM MST Tue Nov 22 2022 Current surface map places stalled backdoor cold front across central South Dakota. A few inches of snow is likely, with a low chance(20-30%) for accumulations greater than 4 inches in the higher elevations. For the plains, the main impact will be strong northwest winds behind the cold front with 3-4mb/3hr pressure rises and 40kt+ winds in the mixed layer. After a dry and cooler Thanksgiving day, warmer than average temperatures will return for the weekend.
402 AM CST Tue Nov 22 2022 An upper trough that has brought light snow to eastern ND overnight will continue to exit to the east this morning. Upper ridging will build in over the northern Plains today bringing in warm and dry air. Winds will become more southerly on Wednesday ahead of a weak low pressure system that will move over central SD.
Short term impact will be a freezing fog advisory is in effect for the Bear Lake Valley tonight with some visibility of 1/4 mile or less expected this morning. Tonight into Wednesday a Pacific trof will move through eastern Idaho with widespread light snow expected which may cause some minor travel impacts. Will be dry Wednesday night as upper level ridge builds in from the west.