Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
603 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2015 High pressure will move over central Illinois from the northern Plains tonight bringing a decrease in wind speeds as well as decreasing high cloudiness. Temperatures will cool quite substantially in a very dry atmosphere and clear skies, so expecting lows to reach close to the freezing mark. High pressure will settle over Illinois on Sunday, providing subsident air and dry conditions.
Gusty north winds that followed behind a cold front will diminish around sunset tonight. Clouds have also developed along and just behind the cold front along the I-10 corridor this afternoon as well. Lows tonight will drop into the low to mid 40s.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 49 72 43 75 / 40 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 43 66 38 72 / 60 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 43 68 38 72 / 60 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 42 62 35 70 / 60 0 0 0.
651 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2015 Lingering rainfall across far southern Missouri along the Arkansas border will come to an end by late afternoon as a positive tilt upper level trough axis migrates slowly to the southeast. Cloud cover will gradually erode through the night in the wake of the exiting trough. Good 500 MB height rises and warming 850 MB temperatures along with nearly full sunshine will result in much warmer temperatures.
Associated light winds and clearing skies will move over central Illinois tonight pushing the high clouds streaming over southern Illinois southeastward as it moves in. The clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to drop close to freezing tonight. High pressure will move over central Illinois from the northern Plains tonight bringing a decrease in wind speeds as well as decreasing high cloudiness. Temperatures will cool quite substantially in a very dry atmosphere and clear skies, so expecting lows to reach close to the freezing mark. High pressure will settle over Illinois on Sunday, providing subsident air and dry conditions.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD WARMTH SUNDAY.
929 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THINK THAT CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS FAIRLY THIN AND MAY SEE SOME STARS THROUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THICKNESS VALUES ALSO SUPPORTING INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS E ACROSS THE AREA. WILL SEE A SFC TROF MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING MORE WESTERLY WINDS. WITH SOME LOCATIONS REACHING THE LOW 70S. COOLER AIR IS LAGGING MUCH FARTHER NW BEHIND THE SFC TROF.
TO OUR SOUTHWEST THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER OLD MEXICO CONTINUES TO DRAW MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS CLOUD SHIELD WILL RIDE UP AND OVER A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL US. SCT STRATOCU HAVE MOVED NORTH THIS AFTN LEAVING SKIES RELATIVELY CLEAR IN THE LOWER LVLS. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO A WEAK TROF THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE INCREASE MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THE TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BE ABLE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY PULLING A FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE U. THIS HAS AIDED IN PULLING THE LOW OVER ARKANSAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO KENTUCKY AND IS HELPING TO FINALLY CLEAR THINGS OUT ACROSS ALABAMA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH PART OF THE STATE. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE SINKS FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AS SKIES SHOULD CLEAR UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE.
UPPER LOW OVER ARKANSAS WILL LIFT/SHEAR OUT BY 00-06Z.
627 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
EXTENDING BETWEEN A STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES. THOUGH FURTHER WEAKENING/DEFORMING AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BRIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL RELAX TONIGHT AND REMAIN WEAK INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH SANDY SOILS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES MAY EVEN SEE A FEW 20S TO START SUNDAY.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO FINALLY MOVED THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN STEADILY BUILDING IN.
WEAK TROF AXIS SITS OVER THE AREA WITH NWLY WINDS AT AEX/LCH/BPT TRYING TO BRING SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. TO OUR SOUTHWEST THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER OLD MEXICO CONTINUES TO DRAW MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS CLOUD SHIELD WILL RIDE UP AND OVER A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL US. SCT STRATOCU HAVE MOVED NORTH THIS AFTN LEAVING SKIES RELATIVELY CLEAR IN THE LOWER LVLS. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO A WEAK TROF THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE INCREASE MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THE TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Fog is possible tonight across the southern part of the CWA where the following factors favor radiational fog formation: recent rainfall (increased ground and low level moisture), persistent cloudiness for most of the day (limited mixing keeps the BL moist) followed by partial clearing after sunset (allows for nocturnal cooling), and the arrival of an E-W oriented ridge axis by 12z Sun (decreasing wind speeds overnight).
WEAK COLD FRONT BISECTING THE REGION MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHWRS OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE FROM CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LOW WERE MOVING NE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF TO THE EAST COAST. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING TO THE ENE ACROSS WESTERN/MIDDLE TENNESSEE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A NE-SW ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE RIDGE WAS FLANKED BY TROUGHS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND GREAT LAKES.
700 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015 MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NWD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MOST TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. /ISSUED 348 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015/ WARM SPRING AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S (ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER UNDER THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE PARTS OF CWA). LARGE/BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED NEAR CABO. EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROF EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF.
THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WARMER/DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. NEW MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER AND WARMER SUNDAY AFTERNOON THAN PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS.
An upper level low pressure trof over the Eastern Pacific continues on its way east and moisture ahead of this system is spreading across Western Montana and the Rockies. Current forecast on track and the High Wind Warning and Winter Storm Watch will be continued. Strong surface winds will slowly decrease overnight as trough of low pressure extending south from AB into central MT gradually weakens. A surface cold front will push south into the KCTB and KHVR terminals late Sunday afternoon/evening bringing a wind shift to the N/NE with MVFR/IFR conditions developing in widespread precipitation at those terminals, spreading south into central MT late Sunday evening.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY PULLING A FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE U. THIS HAS AIDED IN PULLING THE LOW OVER ARKANSAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO KENTUCKY AND IS HELPING TO FINALLY CLEAR THINGS OUT ACROSS ALABAMA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH PART OF THE STATE. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE SINKS FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AS SKIES SHOULD CLEAR UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TODAY WITH BACKSIDE MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST FLOW INTO MIDDAY. LOW CHC POPS FOR A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER MAINLY ACROSS I-80 INTO THE RIDGES WILL END BY AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR WRAPS INTO REGION. THAT UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT SHALLOW CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EARLY SUNDAY AS IT DIGS EASTWARD. NONE OF THAT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AND WILL BE SUPPRESSED VIA BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WIND GUSTS WERE THUS ADJUSTED WITH 35 TO 40 MPH ANTICIPATED ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
The 7 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a weak, slow-moving cold front extending from a weak low just east of Columbus, GA, southward through Apalachicola, and into the Gulf of Mexico. The airmass behind this front wasn't noticeably cooler, just a little drier.
BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BE ABLE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH CLOUDS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ARE MASKING THE EXTENT OF THE LOWER CLOUDS.
620 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015 A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CONUS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS GOING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH THE ONLY ISSUE BEING TEMPS AND WIND. WHICH LOOK MUCH MORE REASONABLE THAN COOLER MET GUIDANCE.
MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. A WEAK LOW- LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH CAUSING NORTH WINDS NEAR 10-15 MPH. A THERMAL TROUGH AND SHALLOW CYCLONIC LOW IS NOTED ON VISIBLE/NWP OUTPUT OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS. THIS THERMAL TROUGH WILL PIVOT SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER H925 TEMPS INTO THE EAST HALF OF THE REGION. THESE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLER TOMORROW VS. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT 3-8F DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY.
806 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WEAK COLD FRONT BISECTING THE REGION MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHWRS OVERNIGHT. /ISSUED 638 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015/ UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SPIN IN THE VICINITY OF NE TX/SW AR AND NW LA THIS EVENING. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE TROUGH IS PULLING UP SOME DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA THIS EVENING WHICH HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS TO CLIMB ABOVE 3KFT. UNDERNEATH THE TROUGH.
A WEAK MID LEVEL TROF TO OUR NORTH MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OUT OF THE MOISTURE BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. LINGERING SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN/NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST BY ALL GUIDANCE TO BUILD OVER THE ARKLAMISS AS THE ANOMALOUS CUT-OFF LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA MOVES WEST.
SOME PATCHY SHALLOW FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE NIGHT WHERE THE LOWER CLOUDS MOVE OUT. FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECASTS A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED THROUGH CKV AND WAS MOVING THROUGH BNA BEFORE 00Z. MET GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT ARE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MAV, SO WILL AT LEAST TREND ABOVE THE MAV FOR TEMPS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED NORTH THROUGH OUR WESTERN ZONES AS OF THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT. A NICE PUSH OF WARMER AIR WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 925MB WINDS FROM 45 TO 50 KNOTS WILL USHER IN THE WARMER AIR AND 925MB TEMPS AT 12Z ARE EXPECTED FROM +9C TO +12C OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE WILL SEE COOLER READINGS DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND LATE SUNDAY.
1027 PM MDT SAT MAR 14 2015 THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS ALSO CAUSING RIDGING TO TILT OVER OUR CWA. LITTLE CHANGE SUNDAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED AGAIN WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOME AREAS IN THE CWA SEEING HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. FLAT RIDGING WILL BE BREAKING DOWN THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A SERIES OF PACIFIC WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.
638 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SPIN IN THE VICINITY OF NE TX/SW AR AND NW LA THIS EVENING. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE TROUGH IS PULLING UP SOME DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA THIS EVENING WHICH HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS TO CLIMB ABOVE 3KFT. UNDERNEATH THE TROUGH.
/ISSUED 700 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015/ MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NWD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MOST TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. /ISSUED 348 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015/ WARM SPRING AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S (ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER UNDER THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE PARTS OF CWA). LARGE/BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED NEAR CABO. EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROF EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF.
932 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WHILE A TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
AND EVENTUALLY THE LOW CLOUDS AS WELL AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.
THE SE OK AND NW AR SITES STAND THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEEING MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRES WILL BRING -RA AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.
GIVEN HOW QUICKLY THE LOW LEVEL POOL OF COLD AIR IS DEFLECTED TO THE EAST. ONE ADDITIONAL ISSUE THAT HAS POPPED UP THIS EVENING DUE TO STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS INCREASED VERTICAL MIXING OF HIGHER FLOW FROM ALOFT INTO THE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. FRIES THAT UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT SHALLOW CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EARLY SUNDAY AS IT DIGS EASTWARD. NONE OF THAT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AND WILL BE SUPPRESSED VIA BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WIND GUSTS WERE THUS ADJUSTED WITH 35 TO 40 MPH ANTICIPATED ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE IS A BIT DIRTY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS SET TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES TO THE REGION. PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS DIE OFF AND HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS EAST. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.
1135 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW ACROSS MIDDLE TN TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD. OCCASIONAL LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS POSSIBLE AT ALL 3 AIRPORTS THE REST OF TONIGHT BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR LONGEST LASTING IMPACTS WILL BE AT CSV.
FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECASTS A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED THROUGH CKV AND WAS MOVING THROUGH BNA BEFORE 00Z. MET GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT ARE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MAV, SO WILL AT LEAST TREND ABOVE THE MAV FOR TEMPS.
WITH SLIGHT DRIER AIR AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN WAKE OF WEAK COLD FRONT.
A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRES WILL BRING -RA AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.
733 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WHILE A TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTH. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SECONDARY PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE BACK TOWARD THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LEANED TOWARD THE NAM GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WITH WARMER TEMPS FOR THE BRUSH COUNTRY.
VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWED A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS ROTATING THRU NE WI AROUND A MID-LEVEL UPR TROF THAT WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES. THE PROMINENT UPR TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES WL CONT TO SHIFT EAST AWAY FROM NE WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW THE RDG OF HI PRES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR TNGT. PROGS HAVE COME TO AGREEMENT WITH NO PCPN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS DO CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE STATE EARLY THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS THEY TURN S/SE IN THE AFTN IN RESPONSE TO LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. EXTENDING BETWEEN A STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES. THOUGH FURTHER WEAKENING/DEFORMING AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BRIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL RELAX TONIGHT AND REMAIN WEAK INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH SANDY SOILS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES MAY EVEN SEE A FEW 20S TO START SUNDAY.
1034 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
1139 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2015 Throughout the short-term period, the forecast area will continue to be ruled by dry, benign, and warmer than normal conditions. As the pressure gradient tightens on the backside of the high, southwesterly winds will pick up, along with the diurnal heating of the day.
WITH A PINCHING COLD CORE UPPER LOW WHICH IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN OLD MEXICO. SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS ARE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF VERY DEEP AND WARM RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER CARIBBEAN SEA. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER GEORGIA. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO SLIDE DOWN A BIT MORE JUST TO THE KEYS. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 87 DEGREES.
THIS WILL ALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING TO GRADUALLY TAKE HOLD. HIGH BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF WEAK VORT AXES SLIDING THROUGH IN THIS FLOW.
GIVEN HOW QUICKLY THE LOW LEVEL POOL OF COLD AIR IS DEFLECTED TO THE EAST. FRIES THAT UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT SHALLOW CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EARLY SUNDAY AS IT DIGS EASTWARD. NONE OF THAT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AND WILL BE SUPPRESSED VIA BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WIND GUSTS WERE THUS ADJUSTED WITH 35 TO 40 MPH ANTICIPATED ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
545 PM MDT SAT MAR 14 2015 DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES OVER THE PLAINS.
An upper level low pressure trof over the Eastern Pacific continues on its way east and moisture ahead of this system is spreading across Western Montana and the Rockies. Current forecast on track and the High Wind Warning and Winter Storm Watch will be continued. Strong surface winds will continue through this evening then slowly decrease late tonight as a trough of low pressure continues to extend south from AB into central MT. Strongest winds in excess of 50kts will be along the Rocky Mtn Front as well as over the ridgetops of SW MT this evening. A surface cold front will push south into the KCTB and KHVR terminals Sunday afternoon bringing a wind shift to the N/NE with MVFR/IFR conditions developing in widespread precipitation at those terminals, spreading south into central MT Sunday evening.
CURRENTLY PARIS TN IS REPORTING THE LOWEST VISIBILITY OF A HALF MILE. UPPER LOW OVER ARKANSAS WILL LIFT/SHEAR OUT BY 00-06Z.
/ISSUED 239 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015/ MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA CONT TO FILL.
FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL GA AND SRN SC. LOWS TONIGHT COMFORTABLE BUT MUGGY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. SLY FLOW IS ANALYZED AROUND 15 KNOTS BUT MAY INCREASE A BIT FURTHER AND THEN DECREASE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SWD AND PRES GRADIENT LOOSENS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.
1206 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 A MOISTURE LIMITED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
UPPER RIDGING IS STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN NM INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH LEE TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUN WITH SURFACE LEE TROUGHING SLOWLY INCREASING OVER FAR WESTERN KS/EASTERN CO. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MON AS UPPER ENERGY TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN CANADA. WILL SHIFT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY. WITH LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 11-25MPH RANGE WITH THE HIGHER SPEEDS OVER CENTRAL KS.
909 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING.
1145 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015 A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CONUS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS GOING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH THE ONLY ISSUE BEING TEMPS AND WIND. WHICH LOOK MUCH MORE REASONABLE THAN COOLER MET GUIDANCE.
810 PM PDT SAT MAR 14 2015 WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE LOW CEILINGS SHOULD BE GONE BY 14Z SUNDAY.
251 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THIS WILL TRIGGER AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO FORM OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND CROSSES THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MAY ACTUALLY BE WARMER GIVEN DOWN SLOPE FLOW.
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THIS EVENING YET BEFORE THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
WILL INCLUDE PATCHY DENSE FREEZING FOG. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE A DRY. SUNNY AND WARMER DAY. VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE DOES NOT SUPPORT ANY SNOW UNTIL THE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE MAYBE A PERIOD FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY MORNING.
941 PM PST FRI JAN 16 2015 After a brief break in the rainy and snowy weather tonight, a wet and warmer storm system will arrive Saturday and persist through Sunday delivering valley rain and mountain snow. Locally heavy snow is possible over the higher mountains.
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE INTO THE PACIFIC NW TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SAT. FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MON FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TUE AND WED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWED A TRANSITORY 500 MB RIDGE GETTING FORCED TO THE EAST AS A FAIRLY STRONG JET STREAM PUSHES TO NEAR 130W AS EVIDENCED BY A NICE DARK SLOT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TODAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST.