Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
345 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2016 Central Florida finds itself under a weak mid level trough between two dominant ridges, one centered over Texas and the other over the western Atlantic. Closer to the surface, the subtropical ridge axis has shifted toward south Florida, inducing offshore flow across the region. 0") combined with weak mid level troughing should portend a higher coverage of showers and storms across east central Florida today. With a more defined southwest steering flow in the low to mid levels, anticipate a somewhat delayed development of the east coast sea breeze with ample low level convergence in the form of boundary collisions later in the day.
357 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016 Upper short wave trough on satellite imagery this morning is currently rotating into the southern Manitoba province. In it's wake, a cold front will surge southeast across the western high and central plains regions through the afternoon and evening. Lapse rates in the low levels are dry adiabatic with ample dry air towards the sfc as dewpoints mix to the upper 60s.
Have the highest pops (likely) in this area as well. Again, have the highest pops roughly from Liberal to La Crosse and points to the northwest. Will all this precip, highs could be a little cooler in the NW zones with 80s and then 90s elsewhere.
Carrying POPs in the 30 to 50 percent range today with lower POPs in the west where some influence of the upper ridge can still be felt. Moving into the weekend, rain chances should be on the increase as the upper ridge shifts westward.
Ample moisture will prevail across southeast Arizona today as strong high pressure aloft remains anchored over Texas, and upper level troughing develops along the California coast.
625 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2016 A cold front will push across the area Friday night.
112 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2016 High pressure across New England will remain in control of our weather through Friday.
An upper low will spin into the Pac NW during the period and will cover the entire west coast with a progressively sharper trof.
411 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016 A short wave and associated low pressure system will exit the northern Rockies overnight creating a strong southerly push of warm air and rising heights over the midwest ahead of a cold front. This warm air advection in the low levels will mix down to the surface creating an area of high temperatures and dewpoints. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid 90s with dewpoints in the low 70s which push heat indices into the 105-107F range. This heat will not last long as a cold frontal boundary makes its way into the NW portions of the CWA Thursday night into Friday morning. The upper level jet remain mostly zonal along the northern US leading to this cold front becoming a stationary boundary quickly as it's parent low moves off to the east.
237 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2016 High pressure across New England will remain in control of our weather through Friday.
We did leave off our far eastern zones given the slight chance of storms in the afternoon and slightly cooler temps forecast (hence lower heat indices). Generally, mid to upper 90s is favored west of the Highway 65 corridor with lower to middle 90's expected east. Going into Friday, rain and storm chances will begin to gradually increase as a series of upper level disturbances move generally eastward on the north side of the upper high.
A cold front was movg through far northwest MN and eastern SD early this morning. Models generally agree that additional convection will develop along and ahead of the cold front this afternoon and evening, with enough instability (CAPE 1500-2500 j/kg) and deep layer shear (35 to 40 kts) to support a severe thunderstorm threat. After muggy highs in the 80s to around 90 today, the arrival of a Canadian air mass will result in highs about 10 degrees cooler on Friday, and much more comfortable humidity levels.
A cold front will move south through the area during the day interacting with the northward moving moisture to produce showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures should range from the low to upper 80s in far eastern colorado with mid 80s to mid 90s east of the CO/KS border, hottest ahead of the front.
At the surface, high pressure is spreading down the Eastern Seaboard and forcing a weak area of low pressure into the Deep South. From there, a combination of outflow and forcing from the weak area of low pressure should result in a quite active afternoon. Expect the highest PoPs along and east of a line from Albany through Panama City, though once things become primarily outflow driven it's certainly possible that a decent coverage of storms may be realized west of this line as well.
Morning soundings, upper air analysis, and water vapor all show the subtropical ridge planted over the Lone Star State. Southeasterly winds continue to bring in a bit of moisture at the surface, but the high pressure is drying out the mid and upper levels. The ridge will continue to be the controlling factor in our weather leading to hot and sunny days with partly cloudy and mild nights.
A cold front will then drop through the region Friday into Friday night, with additional thunderstorm chances. The cold front will drop toward the region Friday morning and move through the area Friday into Friday evening. Both the GFS/ECMWF close in agreement with mid level ridging over the central U. with an upper low over the extreme NWRN U. and a trough over the NERN U.
A weak backdoor cold front extending across the central Midlands will continue to slowly sink southward before stalling. Lows are forecast to be in the lower to mid 70s across the area.
That said, the environment remains very favorable for development and intensification, especially as the cold front progresses east. Watching progression of cold front this afternoon as it moves east across the western Dakotas. Plenty of moisture and instability ahead of the front and also noting the approach of a potent upper level trough. On Thursday, much drier air will be moving in behind the departing cold front. Dewpoints will drop back into the 50s with high temperatures cooling down into the low to mid 80s. High pressure settles into the region Thursday night and remains in control through the day Friday. Low temperatures early Friday morning are forecast to bottom out in the low to mid 50s for most areas. Between those troughs, an upper ridge will stretch from the Northern Plains to the lee of the Canadian Rockies.
The cold front has just entered nw mn. After the passage of the cold front today, wrap around showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop along the border region. High temperatures today will range from the upper 70s to the lower to middle 80s with high humidity continuing, especially ahead of the cold front.
By tomorrow night, the cold front will have moved east of Minnesota, but we did continue low end PoPs for parts of western WI in case it is not east of there yet.
On Friday surface ridging continues to settle into the region. The cold front which will swing through our area today will be laying over southern Kansas at that point, with a mid level boundary situated through southern Nebraska.
Upper level flow aloft is currently shifting to the southwest this morning in response to a developing upper level trough off the northern CA coast.
Main focus is Thu afternoon and evening when an upper low will move into far western Ontario and drag a cold front into western Upper Michigan. With the upper trough slightly lagging the cold front, and overall instability waning with the loss of daytime heating, convection should gradually decrease in both coverage and intensity while moving eastward through the night.
Midlevel ridging overhead remains strong through Thursday keeping rain chances low. Fog development may also allow temperatures to cool further into the lower 70s in those low lying areas and for locations in-between.
Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows sprawling upper lvl ridge over the srn plains east toward the lower MS Valley. a weak ridge of subtropical high pres continues acrs the nrn Gulf, with lt s/sw or near calm winds noted over the region early this morning. Few changes to the fcst as the upper ridge remains the primary influence on our weather in the near term. With dewpoints fcst to remain in the lower to middle 70s acrs much of the area, resultant heat index values will be between 103 and 108 degrees in many locations. The upper lvl anticyclone will move little through the weekend, keeping hot humid conditions in place over the area and limiting daily convection.
A similar scenario is expected on Friday with any convection likely focused to north of the forecast area along the slow moving cold front.
After the passage of the cold front today, wrap around showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop along the border region. High temperatures today will range from the upper 70s to the lower to middle 80s with high humidity continuing, especially ahead of the cold front.
401 AM EDT Thu Aug 4 2016 High pressure east of Long Island will move further off the coast Thursday.
The early morning timing is not favorable for severe weather as the low level jet is forecast to weaken after sunrise which will decrease the low level shear and in theory should minimize the wind threat. However, as of right now the highest risk for severe weather appears to be across southern MN as the aforementioned complex moves eastward and could intensify later today. Later today the upper level wave will drive a cold front through the region which will end the rain chances and bring in cooler, drier air.
444 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2016 A ridge of high pressure overhead will keep it mainly dry and seasonably warm into Friday.
A cold front in Kansas may help generate storms over Kansas tonight into the weekend.
Models continue to pick up on an area of low pressure that will finally enter southern Colorado by this afternoon. The models also continue highlighting a somewhat disorganized upper level trough moving through this evening and continuing into the overnight. The upper level trough will slowly move across our CWA tonight and both NAM and GFS keep rainfall over much of the area. By Friday, the trough will have shifted to our east but ample moisture will remain in the atmosphere and will continue to cause more showers and storms.
Water vapor shows a subtle upper level low spinning over the Four Corners region - temporarily shifting the flow more northwesterly across the Panhandles.
A cold front poised to the northwest at 07z from extreme northwest NE through eastern ND will continue to make progress into the forecast area today and then settle south of the region through the weekend. Will have rain chances increases today as the front moves in, which will also delineate cooler and below normal temps behind the front, but still hot and quite humid ahead of it.
350 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2016 A cold front will push across the area Friday night.
As for pcpn chances drier air in the lower levels will advect across the plains with a stable airmass thus expect no tstm activity except possibly over the palmer divide where an isold storm could dvlp. East of the mtns the low lvl flow will become more ese tonight with some increase in low lvl moisture. An upper level trough will move over the state on Friday combining with increase SW flow. This combined with the moisture and cooler temperatures will hinder vertical updraft development and keep conditions more of a stratiform rain event with increased cloudiness. Temperatures will continue to be cool with highs only getting into the lower 70s.
327 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2016 High pressure slowly slides offshore through Friday.
VFR conditions will continue to dominate under a strong ridge of high pressure. The 500mb meter height is basically unchanged and the freezing level is now up near 17kft.
This is quite high, and although much of northern Arizona remains cloudy, forcing from the low will combine with high moisture and modest instability to cause another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms. This is slightly faster than yesterday due to tightening gradients ahead of a deepening West Coast trough. In addition, a West Coast trough is forecast to cause a drier southwesterly wind to setup over the region.
Otherwise, upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather across much of the area through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Exception will be northwest Oklahoma, where slightly better flow and cooler mid-level temperatures may result in a chance of precip almost every day.
600 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016 A short wave and associated low pressure system will exit the northern Rockies overnight creating a strong southerly push of warm air and rising heights over the midwest ahead of a cold front. This warm air advection in the low levels will mix down to the surface creating an area of high temperatures and dewpoints. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid 90s with dewpoints in the low 70s which push heat indices into the 105-107F range. This heat will not last long as a cold frontal boundary makes its way into the NW portions of the CWA Thursday night into Friday morning. The upper level jet remain mostly zonal along the northern US leading to this cold front becoming a stationary boundary quickly as it's parent low moves off to the east.
Expect coverage to increase from west to east this afternoon as the low moves closer to our area, with convection starting in earnest across Middle Tennessee and the plateau and moving slowly eastward.
The leading edge of thunderstorms that was producing winds has moved off to the east, but there continues to be some non-severe storms back behind the cold front currently crossing the Red River. Will keep the low POPs we have going for a short period this afternoon. Behind the cold front, there should be some fairly strong westerly winds this afternoon. Winds will drop off quickly after sunset as high pressure builds into the area.
A ridge of high pressure will be building over the Northern Rockies today into Friday morning. A warming and drying trend is associated with this ridge so temperatures should be 10 to 15 degrees warmer compared to yesterday. An upper level low pressure system will sit over the Olympic Peninsula of Washington through the weekend. The location of this low transitions the upper level flow to be more southwesterly over the Northern Rockies.
Warm and humid weather continues through the short term as a high pressure ridge remains over Texas.
The second round looks to develop along the cold front this afternoon. The cold front looks to enter the northwest portion of Iowa b/t 18- 21z and transition southeast through the afternoon hours and by around 00z Friday it looks to be located from near Cass County to Black Hawk County.
220 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2016 High pressure, along the east coast, will keep our weather seasonably warm, and rain free, into Friday.
SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): Broad 500 mb high pressure will remain centered over the Lone Star State and extended over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley throughout the forecast period.
A cold front will then drop south across northern Nebraska this evening bringing the next chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the low to mid-80s across the forecast area.
An isold tstm was located S of CNM early this morning as a satellite shows a weak shrtwv trof drifting sw.
140 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2016 A ridge of high pressure overhead will keep it mainly dry and seasonably warm into Friday.
For the most part though, convection will be isolated today and Friday as broad scale subsidence beneath the persistent ridge has finally dried the column to PWs less than 2 inches over the northwest half.
At the surface, high pressure will settle over eastern Montana in the afternoon setting us up for some easterly return flow late in the day and through tonight. For Friday, the ridge axis slides a bit east and allows some weak monsoonal impulses to reach the southern portion of our CWA. left the low PoPs for Friday night in these areas, but did limit them a bit more from much eastern progression.
An area of low pressure that was left over from a complex of thunderstorms that formed and died over the Missouri and Illinois yesterday, will be moving slowly eastward across the Ohio Valley region today through Friday. This small scale area of low pressure will provide the lift necessary to spark additional showers and storms west of our area early this morning. The area of mesoscale low pressure that spawns todays precipitation will become much less energetic tonight once the heat from the sun is gone.
345 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016 The primary focus with the short term forecast is on the cold front currently sliding across nw and northern Nebraska. Highs today will be noticeably cooler with upper 70s across our north.
Synoptic Setup: Cool air lies spilled over the high Plains of Montana, the Dakotas, and the Canadian Plains behind and exiting trough. A large hot high pressure heat dome is building over Intermountain West with a ridge starting to develop over the Pacific Northwest. North of this a closed low is meandering down the British Columbia Coastline. Today through Friday Night: Ridge to the west will continue to develop as and slowly shallow out the cool air across the region starting today. The encroaching ridge will generate stable and dry conditions for the next 48 hours.
147 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2016 High pressure near the coast of southern New England will result in dry conditions across the area through Friday.
However, with temps a few degrees lower than what was previously forecast, the lower 70 min temps will likely be realized. Patchy fog is also possible, given the higher soil moisture.
Upper Ridge has centered itself over central TX with a weakening ridge axis across central CA. Weak upper low off Eureka CA is progged to move inland later this morning with an associated trough moving through Central CA this evening. The trough pushes through with strong onshore flow and cooler temps across the region on Friday. Some gusty winds are possible with the trough. However the real noticeable factors will be cooler temps and better air quality in the SJV.
Given the surface boundary in place across central Georgia and development of a weak low pressure area along it, the highest POPs are concentrated in southern zones for the remainder of the day. A wedge feature will build in from the northeast as well on Thursday, which may serve to provide a slightly cooler and more stable airmass a bit in the northeast portions of the area. While scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible anywhere across the area on Thursday, the highest coverage is again expected to be focused around the lingering surface boundary in central Georgia, where likely POPs are forecast.
150 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2016 High pressure over the area will result in continued dry conditions tonight. Hot and humid conditions will continue Friday and a cold front moving across the area will bring increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms. Dry and cooler weather will follow the front this weekend as high pressure builds in. An upper level trof will top the upstream ridge and then move east across the Great Lakes Region Friday. However, concern that some capping in the low levels will limit storm coverage. Otherwise, cooler and less humid air will be over the area this weekend along with dry weather.
Weak high pressure will be suppressed south with a weak southwesterly wind flow and coastal storms in the morning with the possibility of another round of storms later in the day.
357 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016 (Today and Tonight) Not much change to the ongoing forecast, with the upper level high still in place.
Strong mid/upper ridge will remain across the southern plains today.
532 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2016 Very warm and humid conditions along with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are expected until the passage of a Friday night cold front.
As showers end to our east we will see subsidence spread over our west as main upper trof remains well to our west and off the Pacific coast. This will bring our next period of showers and isolated thunderstorms beginning in our west Saturday afternoon and tracking eastward across the lower elevations after 00z with a frontal passage.
230 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016 Main forecast focus in the short term is the pesky upper low and its journey back north-northwest toward the area. The highest likelihood for any rain will be primarily across WI, with chances diminishing greatly west of the Mississippi River. Model solutions have been very similar and consistent for the last several days on this scenario, but have differed somewhat on just how much rain will actually manifest as the system battles the drier air in the ridge axis.
There is a short wave trough within this moisture flux but will weaken or be non-existent by the time it reaches West Texas. Surface cyclogenesis over eastern Colorado will lead to surface lee troughing and bring winds back around to the south this afternoon. A weak impulse beating over the top of the ridge Saturday could provide a few light showers as noted above.
Upper level low will remain nearly stationary to our northeast. Some models are trying to produce a little rain on the backside of this upper level low in northeast portions of the state.
Highest pops (likely) will be over sw IN and nw KY, closest to the upper low. Upper low finally begins to lift off to the north-northeast on Saturday.
A few high clouds may spill over the upper ridge west of the James River, but today should be basically sunny with little in the way of cumulus development seen on the various model BUFKIT soundings after the very shallow early morning fog is heated out. Temperatures still look to reach 70 or a tad warmer today. The low level moisture is shown on all model solutions spreading from the east at least to the Interstate 29 area during the coming night. Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 40s west to the lower 50s east.
415 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016 Fair and dry weather continues as high pressure over Quebec remains over the North Country. A closed upper low over the Ohio valley will linger there through Saturday.
Another unseasonably warm day ahead albeit a few degrees cooler compared to yesterday given the greater coverage of clouds in association with sub- tropical moisture plume. De- amplifying ridge overhead along with a developing lee-side pressure trough will be enough for mainly mainly mountain afternoon/evening weak convection. Did spill convection chances into the Laramie Valley and in the vicinity of the Cheyenne Ridge Saturday evening.
223 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016 The deep upper low has not moved much over the last 24 hours and remains centered over central Kentucky. This has helped provide the area with the cooler temps yesterday and the cooler overnight lows. As of 2 am, parts of central middle TN were in the upper 40s while northern AL was in the lower 50s. Have kept the northern half a bit cooler today to account for this. Overall, highs will be in the lower to middle 70s. Similar conditions from the past two nights will exist tonight with lows in the lower 50s.
1111 PM MDT Thu Sep 29 2016 Current surface map places trof over central Montana into eastern Wyoming. Strong upper ridge axis will cross the central CONUS Sat, bringing continued warm and generally dry weather -- except for isolated afternoon storms over the BH.
425 AM MDT FRI SEP 30 2016 Chances for showers and thunderstorms ramp up today as the upper trof lifts out across CO. By afternoon showers and thunderstorms will re-develop across the mountains as trailing portion of the upper trof axis moves across. Temperatures today should be a couple degrees cooler across the plains given more clouds today. to a couple degrees cooler across the east. Lows tonight should be a tad cooler than this morning.
Not much going on in the short term with high pressure to the east and a broad area of low pressure to the west resulting in southerly flow and some gustiness with about a 12MB gradient across the state. The period begins with high pressure over the region with a large upper level low pressure area moving into the west coast.