Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures will warm into the lower to middle 90s across southern Missouri and southeastern Kansas with heat index values in the 100 to 108 range. Deep layer shear will increase with the approach of the trough and could lead to the potential for supercells. As a cold front sags south this evening into the overnight hours a line of storms may develop as cold pools congeal and if/when this occurs the severe risk will be damaging winds.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 60S UP TO THE LOWER 70S. WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS WILL FOCUS ON THE H5 RIDGE THAT CURRENTLY STRETCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY BEFORE BUILDING NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE BY MIDWEEK IS GOING TO SHIFT THE FOCUS OF EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TO MORE EAST OF THE CWA BY THAT TIME.
327 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015 A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN TROUGH THAT MOVES ASHORE BY MIDWEEK.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND BRING A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHRAS/TSRAS. SO WITH AN INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WARMUP WILL BE AIDED BY A DRIER AIRMASS AS DEW POINTS ONLY EDGE BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S TODAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL ENCROACH ON THE NORTHERN CWA BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB REGIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
COLD FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY. DAMPENING S/W TROF CROSSING AREA AS OF 06Z WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE E AS SURFACE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER OH. ANOTHER S/W TROF WILL BE CRUISING THRU THE OH VALLEY TOWARD EVENING. RAMPED UP POPS AGAIN WITH THIS FEATURE AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT. LEANED TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE TODAY AND COOLER GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT. WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL RESULT IN COOL.
High pressure will begin to weaken, allowing a weak system to pass through Monday.
THIS SHOULD BRING CLEARING SKIES AND SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FOR TONIGHT.
TOPPING ON IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST.
SO WITH AN INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WARMUP WILL BE AIDED BY A DRIER AIRMASS AS DEW POINTS ONLY EDGE BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S TODAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL ENCROACH ON THE NORTHERN CWA BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB REGIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MIN READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S ON TAP.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SFC COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE FA WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING ONGOING. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE FA AS WEAK DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS EXPECTED. DID RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR A SHRA/TS OVER THE CENTRAL BLACK HILLS FOR MID RIDGE/EDDY CONVERGENCE AND STEEP LL LAPSE RATES. LINGERING SHRA/TS CHANCES WILL SHIFT EAST WITH THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH AND WANE TUES NIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY. WARMER DAY IN STORE FOR TUE.
347 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015 AREA REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION.
THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE FOR MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR PRECIP THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR WEST. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE SHIFTING SOUTH SOMEWHAT AND FOR THE MOST PART, PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE CONSIDERABLY FASTER TONIGHT.
AS THE H5 HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS BACK WEST ON MONDAY AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WAS ONCE DOLORES MOVES TO INLAND CALIFORNIA. THE SOUTHERN VALLEY REGIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE INHIBITING MUCH LIFT FROM OCCURRING. THE LATEST FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE BECOMING DISSOLVED INTO THE H5 FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT MEANING THAT THE GJT FORECAST AREA MAY NOT SEE MUCH ACTIVITY AFTER TUESDAY EVENING AS MOST OF THE ENERGY HEADS INTO WYOMING INSTEAD OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.
AT 3 AM AROUND THE MIDSOUTH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE EAST TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE WEST. H5 ANALYSIS DEPICTS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED OVER WEST TEXAS.
545 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT LATER TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW THE SOMEWHAT HIGHER DEWPOINTS JUST TO OUR SOUTH TO ADVECT BACK INTO THE REGION TODAY AND COULD ALLOW FOR ABOUT 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE BY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SLIGHT CAPPING INVERSION. FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWA TONIGHT AND ALLOW SOMEWHAT COOLER AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE.
1231 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015 SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS REACHED KOOCHICHING AND NORTHERN ST. A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE BWCAW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FOCUS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. COOLER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE TOO MUCH COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT. AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE DAKOTAS BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A SHORT WAVE SWINGING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THIS INITIAL SHORT WAVE. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
352 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WAS NEARING FAR NW WI EARLY THIS MORNING. DUE TO UPPER FORCING WITH A WELL-DEFINED S/W TROF IN CENTRAL SD. MODELS APPEAR TO BE A BIT FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY. UPPER FORCING WITH THE S/W TROF AND JET STREAK IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. WHILE LOCATIONS FARTHER SE GET INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
334 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2015 (Today and Tonight) The upper level high will remain centered over Texas today and tonight. Some warming and drying of the low-level airmass is indicated for our area. Expect high temperatures today to be about 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday.
IF TEMPS/DEWS ARE JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN PLACES MONDAY AFTERNOON. /ISSUED 225 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015/ THE PERSISTENT LEE SIDE TROUGH AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ACROSS THE CWA AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS AND RETREATS WESTWARD.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON TUESDAY.
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER DIFFUSE PATTERN IN PLACE WITH A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO BUT RATHER WEAK FLOW ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA. SOME BLOWOFF FROM THIS EXTENDS AS FAR NORTH AS THE LOWER TN VALLEY. 15 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO NORTH ALABAMA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UNSETTLED WEEK WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RETROGRADE AND GET FLATTENED OUT OVER TEXAS WHILE A SFC-500 MB TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. MEAN LAYER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE TO THE SOUTH.
210 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015 UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO MAINTAIN HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN US WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WEST THIS WEEK. ALLOWING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT AND EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HOT HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND A RIDGE JUTS OUT OF THIS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THEN RUNS NORTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. A TROUGH SETS OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA.
THE UPPER RIDGE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS HEIGHTS LOWER SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO A SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD MOVING TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN PROVINCES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN GET HOT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN THE LOWER HEIGHTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AGAIN REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH MID TO UPPER 70S EXPECTED.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OUT IN NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AROUND NOON TODAY. WHICH IS ON THE LOWER SIDE AT 1000 J/KG MLCAPE WHEN COMPARED TO THE 20. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
350 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY WHILE SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH CWA TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ENDING PCPN CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH EVEN DRIER AIR WORKING IN. A SECOND SURGE OF COOL AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXTEND WELL INLAND.
Hail, especially severe hail, looks like a low probability given forecast high freezing levels.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING WEAK TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH SUBTROPICAL UPPER HIGH SLOWLY RETROGRADING BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AT THIS TIME. WITH THE FOCUS OF STORMS TODAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH STORMS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
COLD FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY. DAMPENING S/W TROF CROSSING AREA AS OF 06Z WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE E AS SURFACE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER OH. ANOTHER S/W TROF WILL BE CRUISING THRU THE OH VALLEY TOWARD EVENING. RAMPED UP POPS AGAIN WITH THIS FEATURE AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT. LEANED TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE TODAY AND COOLER GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
COLD ADVECTION LEVELS OFF TODAY IN WAKE OF PASSING COLD FRONT. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES COOLEST ( AROUND 70) ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM DVL TO BJI AND WITH MOIST LAYER AOB 800MB WILL SEE MORE HIGH BASED CU DEVELOPMENT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS AREA. FARTHER SOUTH WILL SEE MORE SOLAR BUT WITH COOLER COLUMN BLO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. SOME MODEST WARM ADVECTION AND RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER EAST TX. AT THE SURFACE, A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM WEST TX THROUGH CENTRAL KS WHILE A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SD INTO NORTH CENTRAL CO. THIS SEEMS TO BE HANDLED REASONABLY WELL BY THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND WOULD ANTICIPATE THE PRECIP WEAKENING TOWARDS THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
230 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BEEN THE FEATURE THAT HAS IMPACTED THE WEATHER OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS THE MOST FOR THE LAST WEEK. THERE IS A COLD FRONT THAT IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING.
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH A PERSISTENT DRY AND HOT WEATHER PATTERN.
ALONG WITH COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST. A WEAK UPPER LOW WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS AGREE THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THEN TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AND END BY TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST TURNS THE FLOW ALOFT MORE WESTERLY. AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN INTERIOR AREAS WHICH WILL PROBABLY SEE A BIT MORE SUN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST AREAS TOMORROW AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS.
HIGH RES MODELS FORECAST SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH MID-MORNING AS A TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA ALONG THIS TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A TROUGH MAY THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS MONDAY THROUGH THE WEEK.
413 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015 UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A PAIR OF SMALL TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES IS TRACKING ACROSS SW KS THIS MORNING COMPLETE WITH A COLD FRONT MOTORING SOUTH THROUGH THE NRN PANHANDLE. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
202 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER AIR. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND ONCE AGAIN BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRESENCE OF A FRONTAL TROUGH FROM THE MID ATLC SEABOARD TO THE FL PANHANDLE WL KEEP THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED SOUTH OF THE REGION.
MEANWHILE, AN H5 VORT MAX IS PROJECTED TO KICK OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AND FURTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S(F) THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS ARE EXPECTED DOWN INTO THE 60S(F) IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT WITH THE LOWER TO MID 70S(F) IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
158 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING. A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE ILN CWA OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE THE CONVECTION HAS CAUSED POCKETS OF COOLER LOCATIONS. THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND WASH OUT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER MONDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND USHERS IN A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS. COLD FRONT TIMING FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS REMAINING ACROSS THE SOUTH.
COLD FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY. STILL LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING AND EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF. DAMPENING S/W TROF CROSSING AREA AS OF 06Z WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE E AS SURFACE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER OH. ANOTHER S/W TROF WILL BE CRUISING THRU THE OH VALLEY TOWARD EVENING. RAMPED UP POPS AGAIN WITH THIS FEATURE AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT. LEANED TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE TODAY AND COOLER GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
VERY WARM CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY WITH TEMPS STILL IN THE MID 80S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 90S AS OF 3AM IN THE DISTRICT. IT APPEARS HEAT INDICES WILL REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN TODAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN WARNING CRITERIA AT DCA IF THE HIGHER MET DEWPOINTS VERIFY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION WHILE A WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
348 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015 A WEAKNESS IN THE H5 RIDGE WILL LIE ACROSS THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST THIS WEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CARVE OUT A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND PINCH OFF AND DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OVER FLORIDA. DEEPER MOISTURE AROUND THIS TROUGH COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH WARMER AIR WORKING BACK INTO THE WEST WHERE.
ALONG WITH THE DRIER AIR WILL COME ELEVATED TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS APPROACHING THE 110 DEGREE MARK FOR THE LOWER DESERTS BY THE WEEKEND. THE CLOUD COVER IS KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER/IN THE LOW 80S AT SOME DESERT LOCALES INCLUDING PHOENIX.
254 AM PDT MON JUL 20 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST CONTINUES TO PULL MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION AND CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BRING MORNING CLOUDS AND PARTLY SUNNY AFTERNOONS MOST DAYS. THE OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE THAT BROUGHT THE HOT WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON IS WEAKENING AND SHIFTING SOUTHWEST. AND AN UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA.
651 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER AIR. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND ONCE AGAIN BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL HAVE NEARLY EXITED THE SERN FA BY 12Z AND PUSH INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY WITH A RETURN OF LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.
631 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY WHILE SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH CWA TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ENDING PCPN CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH EVEN DRIER AIR WORKING IN. A SECOND SURGE OF COOL AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXTEND WELL INLAND.
STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY ON MONDAY WILL BE THE HIGHEST COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS.
LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER SO SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY THEN STILL FAIRLY MILD UNDER THE CLOUDS TONIGHT.
500 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST OVER THE AERODROMES AND SUPPRESS ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MAINTAIN SUBSIDENCE AND STABILITY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOST OF THE MOISTURE REMAINS CONCENTRATED IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH MUCH MORE DRIER AIR ALOFT. THE NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATED SOME BETTER MOISTURE LEVELS ADVECTING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARDS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE LOWER TO MID VALLEY AND AROUND 100 IN THE UPPER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE WEST.
SOME DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THE HIGH-RES ARW AND NMM MODELS INFER SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY INTO MODOC AND SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.
THEN COOLER AND SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN EARLY TONIGHT. MOST OF THE REST OF THIS WEEK WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE EACH DAY.
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SEPARATING THE TWO HOWEVER SATURATION WITHIN THIS REGION WILL COMMENCE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST. START OF EXTENDED WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO IOWA. AS RIDGE BUILDS WAVE WILL PUSH EAST.
GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS HAS BEEN THE WARMEST & MOST HUMID NIGHT OF THE PAST 3-4 DATES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER- MID 80S RESIDING ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF KICT COUNTRY. TONIGHT: THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PROGRESS OF THE AFORE-MENTIONED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRAW THE GREATEST ATTENTION. AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-DECK RIDGE COVERING MOST OF THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE U. WOULD SPELL A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER WEATHER FOR GREAT PLAINS AS THE WORK-WEEK DRAWS TO A CLOSE.
THE FORECAST AREA /WHICH INCLUDES SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO/ WILL BE DOMINATED BY DRY STABLE CONDITIONS AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXTENDS NORTHWARD OUT OF NEVADA. MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS OF DOLORES WILL ADVECT NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN CANADA AND THE PACNW. BUT EXCLUDES THE TREASURE AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS AS THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE RIDGE WILL EFFECTIVELY RETREAT WESTWARD.
/06Z TAFS/ WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA THE ONLY CONCERNS WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH A SHARP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GULF WITH WINDS ACROSS OUR CWA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OVER TEXAS DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN THE HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ADDED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A COLD FRONT POSITIONED FROM DULUTH MINNESOTA STRETCHING SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE MODELS SUGGEST WE COULD SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WILL KEEP HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE 06Z NAM TRIES TO BUILD CAPE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THEY WON/T BE THIS HIGH SO THE CAPE VALUES ARE OVERDONE IN THE NAM. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
322 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015 ANOTHER QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND ON INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY TO REMAIN A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WORKING INTO THE REGION AND THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH.
THE COOLER DAY WAS NOT ABLE TO MIX ABOVE THE NOTICEABLE INVERSION AROUND 550MB SO A MUCH QUIETER EVENING/NITE HAS BEEN THE RESULT. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING AS A SUBTLE TRANSITORY SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD THEN EAST OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CUTTING OF MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH AS A DEEP TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS TROUGH. THIS IS ALL DUE IN LARGE PART TO A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SRN CO/NRN NM.