Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 336 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017/ A strong trough continues to dig over the western CONUS early this morning with a ridge building over the southeast. The southerly flow on on the eastern flank of this low will continue to advect deep moisture into the Mid-South today. The increase in moisture will bump heat indices up into the lower 90s across much of the area this afternoon. The primary concern would be brief heavy downpours given the high PWATs and slow storm motions.
However, latest parameterized model guidance is suggestive that a weak mid-level impulse over the lower CO Valley early this morning will track northeast into the central High Plains by evening. Mid-level ridging will begin to shift east of the area on Monday in deference to the progression of an upper low through the Interior West. In the low levels, a lee cyclone will correspondingly deepen over eastern CO while an associated surface front lifts north through northern NE.
As an upper level trough and closed low across the western U. Upper level diffluent southernly flow streaming across eastern Montana out ahead of the closed low Monday afternoon, centered over Idaho, will enhance forcing for ascent. Upper low will be rotating into the Great Basin before lifting northeast across Montana during the early part of the week.
The gradient between this boundary and the high will keep breezy conditions in place today.
It will be a bright and warm to hot day as the upper ridge builds over the eastern US. High temperatures a few degrees higher along with dewpoints also nudging slowly upward will yield heat indices in the low to mid 90s over much of my SERN forecast area.
738 AM EDT Sun Jun 11 2017 Bermuda high pressure will remain anchored off the coast through the middle of this week. A trough and cold front will approach the region late this week. High pressure both at the surface and aloft will be in full control of our weather today. While a few passing high clouds are possible from time to time, strong subsidence from the highs just mentioned will keep our weather dry.
654 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017 Currently residing in southwest flow on the west side of an upper level ridge.
A low pressure system that brought the recent unsettled conditions was over northern California, and will continue moving southeast for a decreasing threat of showers. Weak high pressure will prevail on Monday.
934 AM EDT Sun Jun 11 2017 A large ridge of high pressure will continue to build across the Great Lakes and Ohio valley through this week.
Another active afternoon today with isolated activity expected near coastal sites late morning through early afternoon, then the higher chances for showers and storms will shift to inland sites mid to late afternoon.
946 AM EDT Sun Jun 11 2017 Bermuda high pressure will remain anchored off the coast through the middle of this week. A trough and cold front will approach the region late this week. indicating today will be a degree to 3 degrees warmer than yesterday. A 591 DM upper level high will be cresting over our area early Monday morning with a dry forecast expected Monday. 850 MB temps are about 1 degree warmer than this afternoon. This warmer air aloft will push highs into the lower 90s inland to middle to upper 80s at the beaches. A large high pressure system both aloft and at the surface will be in control of our weather.
Upper level low over northern California this morning will be the main focus for widespread precipitation across the region through Monday. Showers have developed in vicinity of the low center across Southeast Oregon as well as across South Central Idaho where a strong upper level jet is located. As the upper level low moves south-southeast into northwest Nevada this afternoon precipitation will coverage will increase across the forecast area. Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to impact many of the terminals today and this evening in response to an approaching low pressure system.
907 AM EDT Sun Jun 11 2017 High pressure has brought dry and warm weather for the start of the new week. High temperature for today was also bumped up slightly given continued warm advection and full insolation under strong high pressure. Broad high pressure aloft and southerly boundary layer flow will maintain dry weather and more humid warmth through tonight.
Isolated showers continued across the southeast early this morning as a cold front continued to move out of the area. High pressure over the region today will confine shower and thunderstorm chances to the higher terrain across the south. Showers and thunderstorms begin to overspread the area tonight into Monday as an upper low moves into the Great Basin putting the Northern Rockies under diffluence aloft. Showers and thunderstorms will continue over the area, gradually lifting north Monday night as the upper low tracks into northern Wyoming. With strong forcing from the low and ample moisture over the region Monday into Monday night, models continue to prog heavy precipitation amounts over the area.
This will lead to the potential for convection in northern Iowa later tonight as the low level jet intensifies.
Inverted surface trof moving north across the eastern Gulf this morning creating some unsettled weather over the Gulf. Low temperatures tonight moderating slightly over past several nights, ranging from the lower 70s over interior locations and mid 70s over coastal areas.
PWAT image shows an axis of much drier air from off the lower Texas coast extending north-northwest into the Coastal Bend.
1030 AM EDT Sun Jun 11 2017 Early visible satellite photographs show skies are mostly cloudy with temperatures in the lower 80s along the Florida Keys. Surface wise, a large western Atlantic ridge extends across the southeastern United States and down the Sunshine State. With the close proximity of the deep layered ridge axis, expect the dry air below 700 mb to remain, hence, only low chance pops which may be generous will be kept.
Upper flow over the local area remains modest from the southwest with an upper low over the Pacific Northwest and weak low over southeastern Texas. At the surface, a stationary front was draped west-to-east over the northern Plains with a lee trough in eastern Colorado. Models are fairly similar in low levels warming a bit with a slightly tighter pressure/height gradients leading to a slightly warmer and windier day.
/issued 439 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017/ TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY: The larger synoptic pattern remains fairly typical for summertime with the western Atlantic ridge axis extending across Central Florida both at the surface and aloft. The feature to watch over the next two days will be the upper level wave currently rounding the base of the ridge across Cuba and the Bahamas. 500mb temps are forecasted to dip to -8C to -9C as the upper level low transits later today and tomorrow.
/Today through Tonight/ Excessive heat and severe weather potential the focus in the short Large-scale features include a longwave trough associated with a deep upper low located near the Hudson Bay. This trough digs down through the Ohio Valley region for most of the week. A thermal ridge looks to extend northward through much of Canada, nearing the arctic circle. This setup will ultimately sandwich Iowa in westerly to NW flow aloft as the thermal ridge ever so gradually crashes down over the state.
/issued 330 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): 500mb ridge across the southwest United States will continue to flatten out through the period and spread eastward, keeping the CWA between it and an inverted 500 mb trough across eastern and northern Mexico. Models show drier air continuing to infiltrate the lower to mid levels, with a nice dry pocket from about 850 to 600 mb or so, especially evident this afternoon and into Tuesday.
1102 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017 A few showers have tried to get going in the ACCAS field just ahead of the cold front in southeast NE and southwest IA. Just slightly cooler today behind the cool front, but still toasty warm in the mid to upper 90s in southeast NE ahead of it, with heat index values near 105 there for a period this afternoon. Strong to severe convection was over eastern Iowa in advance of a warm front from northwest into east central Iowa. PoPs will increase for northern parts of the area tonight as short wave energy tracks east across the region and low level jet kicks in with convection late tonight as surface boundary, now a warm front lifts to the north.
Currently, northwest flow aloft with a broad upper level ridge over the Rockies and deep low pressure to our northeast over Hudson Bay. A mid level S/WV impulse undercutting the ridge is moving east across southeastern Montana, and is generating some light radar returns in its vicinity. Thermal ridge over eastern MT with 925mb temps of 30-34C extending into western ND coupled with decent mixing will see daytime highs near 100 far west to low 90s central. Ridge axis flattens and pushes east across the Northern Plains later today ahead of an advancing S/WV trough. Current models suggest lingering showers and/or storms along the trough axis during the morning and afternoon, most likely elevated, with best chances for strong to severe surface based storms to our north and east.
Cold front in the vicinity late in the week into the weekend.
The surface analysis indicated high pressure ridging across north AL through the central Appalachians lending to a calm or light easterly component to the flow. Dew points should drop off again into the lower 60s during peak mixing later today. The upper ridge will continue to build into the area overnight and southerly flow will persist across the region. 6 inches) on Tuesday and, along with weak subsidence from the upper ridge, keep rain chances at bay for at least one more day.
Deep layer ridging from the Atlantic extending across Fl and the Gulf of Mexico early this morning slowly lifts north.
The low-level ridge axis lies across the central peninsula early this morning and remains forecast to lift slowly northward over the next 24 hours. 2C which is a bit cooler. MOS high temps are mostly in the lower 90s due to the rather high POPs and associated cloud cover.
/issued 307 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017/ The upper ridge that has controlled the weather across our area over the past month will continue to do so through at least this forecast period. This boundary has pushed into the higher terrain this morning and may become a focus for storms this afternoon. This will be the only play today for storms as the ridge expands east over the region and keeps most locations dry. Dry and hot conditions continue into midweek before an inverted trough over E TX and moves west underneath the ridge.
1130 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017 High pressure centered near Bermuda will bring fair and mainly dry weather for the bulk of today. Mainly dry, and slightly cooler weather will arrive for the weekend. High temps will be slightly above normal - ranging from the upper 70s across the highest terrain of the north and west.
High pressure will continue to dominate today with VFR conditions forecast throughout the TAF cycle.
Also, a second batch of convection in the high country is becoming more likely this evening with the jet max to our north. The upper level high will flatten some today thru tonight allowing for the flow aloft to become more wly albeit weak.
An inland warming trend is then forecast late in the week and into the upcoming weekend as high pressure build back toward the California coast.
Early morning thunderstorms in eastern Valley County, ID, have moved out to the northeast, but isolated thunderstorms are expected again later today in northern mountains as a Pacific upper trough comes inland. Trough will bring cooling to all areas and breezy west or northwest winds today and Tuesday. A cold front will continue to move through the area this morning. Similar to the last few days, afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible, mainly across the higher terrain of central and northern Idaho. This front will precede the arrival of a Pacific trough early Tuesday morning. Again, this system will cause temperatures to cool further, with values in the low 90s expected Tuesday afternoon.
Mesoscale models show a loosely organized center of mid level high pressure wobbling around Chama, which should send storms slowly toward the south and west off the high terrain this afternoon and evening. Mid level high pressure will be parked over the four corners region today. A short wave trough well to our north will flatten the high pressure area Tuesday, pushing the high center a little to the south.
739 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017 High pressure centered near Bermuda with a ridge extending into the Mid Atlantic Region will bring fair and mainly dry weather for the bulk of today before an area of slowly weakening showers and thunderstorms arrives from the Ohio valley and Great Lakes region tonight. Humidity and the likelihood of showers and scattered afternoon thunderstorms will increase Tuesday as a slow moving cold front slides southeast across the region.
Given the high instability and observed 700-500 mb lapse rates over 6C/km, there could be a couple of strong to locally severe storms this afternoon, which is typical of summer. Mid level trough across the Appalachians will slowly lose its hold across the Tri-State region today as the western Atlantic ridge begins to build in from the east. Storms will also fire on the western periphery of the Atlantic ridge in the FL Big Bend counties and SW GA. Highs today will reach the lower to middle 90s.
GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: The strong upper ridge that has persisted across the area will begin to translate east today, leaving one more day with temperatures in the 90s and very low RH values below 20 percent this afternoon and evening. Latest 00z models show a weak trough over the area on Tuesday which will bring a reprieve from the heat with highs in the 80s on this day thanks to lower 500mb heights, and enough forcing for ascent to maintain isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm for this period as well.
Weak Ridge axis remains across the area. Ridge axis will build northward across the coastal waters through the period and the South Flow 10-15 knots and seas 2-4 ft will slowly become more E/SE through the week with No headlines expected.
A weak upper trough will move into the area today, deepening the marine layer and cooling highs a few degrees. A weak upper level trough and onshore flow is spreading clouds into Western WA this morning. The trough and clouds will keeps temps down today, closer to normal. Onshore flow will continue through midweek with an upper level low spinning off B. The upper low off B.
The start of this week will be slightly cooler in comparison to the end of the weekend. The highest potentials will be concentrated along the Continental Divide and Southern/Caribou Highland locations. The trough responsible for this activity will be positioned over Oregon by the evening hours, where it will stay through the middle portion of this week before flattening under building high pressure from the east.
Kept the reasoning for a chance of afternoon thunderstorms with the weak flow aloft and the drifting upper level low. have trimmed a few degrees from the high temp forecast but went above latest MOS guidance.
948 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017 High pressure centered near Bermuda will bring fair and mainly dry weather for the bulk of today. Mainly dry, and slightly cooler weather will arrive for the weekend. High temps will be slightly above normal - ranging from the upper 70s across the highest terrain of the north and west.
1111 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017 High pressure will give us one more dry day today. Low pressure will move into the area from the Great Lakes and bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms for tonight into Tuesday night.
Broad ridging remains overhead between two main highs, one positioned across the Four Corners and the other across the Gulf. That does lead to slightly lower heights along the Texas coast, but again, overall, under broad ridging. As for temperatures, maintained warm to hot conditions, with daytime temperatures in the low to mid 90s generally east of Highway 77 and upper 90s to near 100 degrees west of Highway 77.
A cooler day today, with perhaps some patchy drizzle this morning on the north Oregon/south Washington coast and in the Cascade Foothills.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 68 93 72 / 0 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 67 91 69 / 0 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 89 67 91 69 / 0 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 63 88 67 / 0 0 10 10.
High pressure rebuilds later this week for warmer weather.
Strong to severe convection was over eastern Iowa in advance of a warm front from northwest into east central Iowa. PoPs will increase for northern parts of the area tonight as short wave energy tracks east across the region and low level jet kicks in with convection late tonight as surface boundary, now a warm front lifts to the north.
1017 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017 Upper-level ridge to build east today across the southern plains allowing for drier conditions across the region. Otherwise, afternoon high temperatures to climb into the lower 90s areawide.
2) along and north of the warm front. There could be more interaction between the features, and a lot will depend on just where the nose of the low level jet points. Center of this high is overhead late tonight, with light winds and mostly clear skies expected.
By tonight, surface front will strengthen over portions of the Mississippi and Tennessee valleys as an upper level trough deepens over desert southwest. This looks to be very temporary as high pressure at the surface quickly transitions east to the Carolinas while upper level energy begins to stream in off the gulf.
Mid level subsidence will then act to erode the low end VFR deck during the course of the morning. Upper level wave/circulation tracking through northern Ohio Valley early this morning, just not far enough north to getter better moisture/rates into southeast Michigan, and accumulations appeared to have come up on the lower end. It is this northern Stream Wave, which looks to become the more dominant player, as 6 HR height falls merge over the Midwest Tonight, although not all the upper level energy/PV from the Four Corners region ejects northeast, and thus one of the reason why the low tracking through/near Pittsburgh PA on Wednesday is not expected to deepen fast enough to have a significant impact on our weather.
1055 AM EST Tue Feb 6 2018 Morning Cape sounding shows significant dry air in the low and mid levels with some upper level moisture supporting some cirrus.
Freezing Rain expected across Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and Northwest Tennessee Tonight. Temperatures may actually drop to freezing across Randolph and Lawrence Counties by 00Z(6 PM CST). With temperatures dropping to freezing around 00Z (6 PM CST), expect a changeover from rain to freezing rain to occur across Randolph and Lawrence Counties. By 6-9Z (midnight to 3 AM CST) the freezing line will drop to around Jonesboro up to Union City, TN changing rain over to freezing rain. Accumulations will occur on trees and elevated surfaces(bridges and overpasses) first. Can't rule out rain changing to freezing rain near Paris before it comes to an end.
High pressure over the eastern Pacific will continue to result in dry weather conditions across the region through the forecast period. Upper level high pressure continues to remain off the West Coast. The orientation of interior high pressure and coastal low pressure has led to very gusty winds over the Bay Area Hills.
/Issued 324 AM CST Tue Feb 6 2018/ An upper trough over the Great Basin region will approach the Panhandles today as a moist upslope northeast to east surface flow prevails. Surface dew points currently in the low to mid teens but should continue to climb into the upper teens to lower 20s today. Expect some light snow flurries or possibly some light freezing drizzle may develop this morning by 18Z across mainly the western and central portions of the Panhandles. Expanded the area of freezing drizzle or snow flurries westward today and removed any wintry precip tonight as decreasing cloudiness expected across all of the forecast area by sunset or shortly after sunset this evening.
In the low levels of the atmosphere, an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across North Florida this afternoon. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across South Florida today.
An area of high pressure was located in eastern Nebraska with low pressure and a frontal system in Texas extending eastward across Arkansas. QPF amounts have been diminishing over our area the past several model runs as the low track is further south and this trend continued this morning. Thermal profiles would suggest rain or snow early on with the snow to the north and rain to the south, but heading into the evening, we begin to lose cloud ice and a good portion of the area will switch to drizzle/freezing drizzle. Areas further northwest will have more freezing drizzle with much less ice.
The base of the secondary trough will push eastward across Utah and western Colorado later today. Stubborn arctic front is still nearly stationary along the Laramie Range, but is showing signs of retreating eastward as Laramie and Vedauwoo show winds shifting into the west and slightly warmer temperatures compared to last night. Although some drier air will push into the area, there should be enough instability and llvl moisture to initiate late morning and afternoon snow showers across most of southeast Wyoming including the higher ridges across extreme western Nebraska today. The arctic front will not be too far north of Lusk and Douglas, so expect cooler temperatures north of a line from Douglas to Chadron Nebraska as the position of the front fluctuates.
Early this morning, the cold front was located near a Brady to Big Spring line. Temperatures will be freezing or a few degrees below by this evening for the possibility of light freezing rain across the Big Country. Right now, looks like the impacts will be minimal, with slick bridges and overpasses possible. Across the remainder of the area a slight chance of rain or freezing rain after midnight.
640 AM EST Tue Feb 6 2018 High pressure will move off the coast today. A cold front will bring widespread showers late tonight into Wednesday night. Unsettled weather is expected again over the weekend as another cold front crosses the area. High pressure ridging into the area from the Mid- Atlantic region will shift off the coast today.
Good thing about this light snow event is that wind speeds will stay on the lower end.
The RAP shows a wedge of southerly surface winds developing along the increasing surface gradient by the afternoon, which should draw warmer air into the High Plains. By midday, 850 mb temperatures near the freezing point will be near the KS/Co line, with continued warm advection persisting into the evening over the central High Plains.
Any patchy freezing drizzle that develops should be confined to far southeast Kansas late this afternoon into the early evening hours but confidence remains fairly low and with temperatures hovering just below freezing, any light freezing drizzle is expected to have a minimal impact at this time. A ridge of high pressure will build south across the area into early Wednesday. As this ridge translates eastward over the Middle Mississippi Valley area during the day, southerly flow will return to much of central KS.
Winds will become slightly more south of east today as high pressure to our north moves offshore, allowing some of the boundary's associated low level moisture to creep back north.
Highs should still reach the lower-mid 70s this afternoon for most of our area under partly cloudy skies. Low level high pressure will move off the eastern seaboard today with zonal flow prevailing aloft.
523 AM CST Tue Feb 6 2018 Areas of marine fog continue to form as the remnant warm front pushes northward. An old dissipating frontal boundary/trough currently across the coastal waters expected to lift further northward today. The best chances of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday with the next cold frontal passage.