Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
906 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 A cold front from the northwest will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region today with the potential for some storms to be severe.
Overnight into Saturday, convection off the high plains of Colorado should work out over western KS into central KS with the aid of a weak wave and follow the low to mid level theta-e gradient along the lingering boundary through the region. Saturday during the day, temps should reach the low 90s as the boundary layer mixes with weak return flow.
A cold front will drop southeast of central Indiana tonight which will put a brief end to the unsettled weather.
18Z surface data had the cold front from northwest Indiana into southern Kansas while the dew point front ran from the Chicago area into central Missouri. After sunset and continuing through Saturday, dry and pleasant conditions will be seen as high pressure moves through the Midwest.
1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017 It took quite a while, but convection along the prefrontal trough draped along our southern tier has finally dissipated. The slow motion of the trough/shear axis combined with some outflow boundary complexity to produce some prolonged rainfall in the Albertville area. The cold front should continue to push swd thru the area during the day Sat. Slightly cooler/drier conditions will then develop Sat night, as cloud cover diminishes with the cold front moving S of the local area. Quiet and near seasonal temps then finally return heading into the latter half of the weekend period, as a strong area of high pressure out of the nrn/mid Plains builds sewd into the region.
901 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 A cold front will cross through the region Saturday morning.
730 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 A cold front will move south across the area this evening.
848 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 Update Cooler air will briefly return to Lower Michigan tonight through Saturday night behind a cold front that is moving south across southern Lower Michigan.
929 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017 High pressure extending from central Alberta/Saskatchewan southeast through North Dakota will maintain mainly clear skies and and dry weather over the region tonight and Saturday. Bowman radar shows scattered showers along the warm front. High pressure will slide off to the east Saturday and warm air advection will kick in across western North Dakota.
/issued 343 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017/ The current upper level height pattern with a ridge centered over the western CONUS and a longwave trough over the eastern CONUS is forecast to persist through the weekend.
Our dry break will be interrupted later tonight and Saturday, as a cold front drops southward over the area, bringing along some isolated to scattered thunderstorms. The cold front, which was just south of St. Rather quick moving line of shwrs/tstms associated with summertime cold frontal passage will traverse mid state generally 08/07Z NW to 08/16Z SE.
649 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017 Surface analysis this afternoon shows a long cold front from central Quebec province extending southwest thru lower Michigan into central Missouri and Kansas. The center of expanding high pressure resides over lower Saskatchewan province into the Central Plains. Aloft, the Upper Mississippi Valley region is squarely placed within northwest flow aloft between a large ridge out west and a longwave trough centered over the Appalachians. This activity is expected to be weak and short-lived as the synoptic features move east through this evening, allowing the high pressure system to the northwest to spread into the north-central CONUS tonight thru tomorrow. Highs will again reach the lower 80s like today while lows early tomorrow morning bottom out in the lower 50s to lower 60s.
1140 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017 High pressure continues to build into the area with winds at many locations already becoming light and variable/calm. Temperatures continue to be on track other than some isolated obs dropping into the low to mid 50s already across portions of the far east that will need to be watched. As for any fog potential, guidance still isn't showing much, even with light winds, clear skies, and high pressure overhead.
1045 PM MDT Fri Jul 7 2017 More convection under the big ridge through this evening. So the lower atmosphere is moistening as expected and this trend will continue through Saturday night.
Kept overnight low temperatures untouched though the prevailing east winds along with thicker clouds could hold readings a few degrees warmer than forecast. /448 PM MST Fri Jul 7 2017/ Increasing Monsoon moisture will become more notable by Saturday, as PW values during peak mixing should easily exceed 1 inch across most of the lower deserts. The midlevel cyclone positioned to the north will weaken, but still maintain general easterly flow across Arizona/New Mexico.
A weak backdoor cold front is expected to approach North Texas from the northeast Saturday. This should allow a backdoor cold front to approach the region during the day.
Other than a slight eastward expansion Four Corners-centered upper ridging.
831 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 Cold front crosses Saturday morning.
637 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017 Initial cold front has passed through Decatur and should soon be in Champaign, although the drier air is lagging behind and the dew point drop is closer to I-80. Drier northwest flow will prevail overnight into Saturday, as high pressure settles into the mid-Mississippi Valley.
Other than a slight eastward expansion Four Corners-centered upper ridging. /ISSUED 348 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017/ Surface observations across SE Texas showed temperatures in the low/mid 90s and heat index values from 95 to 105F except for the rain cooled areas from Bay City to Wharton. Upper level ridging tries to build but the ridge remains over the Rockies with a inverted trough over Mexico.
The upper level ridge that is in place over the Great Basin has shifted westward enough to allow for a few perturbations to move into NE Colorado. Increased moisture from earlier today has allowed for better instability and cooler temperatures on the plains for this afternoon. QG ascent will also be more stable for the lower elevations so only expect a slight chance of storms. Conditions will be more favorable for the higher terrain and Palmer Divide areas where storms could bring gusty winds, small hail and lightning by Saturday afternoon.
Maliawco Previous Discussion: Upper ridge continues to dominate the weather pattern with hot and mainly dry weather. With the ridge axis moving over the area, expect very hot temperatures Saturday, with temperatures ranging from the mid 90s to the mid 100s.
923 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 Showers with the chance of thunderstorms will move through overnight into Saturday morning in association with a cold front.
The 7 pm surface analysis showed the western extent of the Bermuda Ridge across the northeast Gulf of Mexico. In the upper levels, our forecast area was in the base of an upper trough, though the main belt of westerlies associated with this trough was well to our north.
High pressure will ridge across the waters for the next several days keeping light winds with the afternoon sea breeze dominating the flow each day with scattered thunderstorms.
828 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 A cold front from the northwest will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region today with the potential for some storms to be severe.
This heated and moistened airmass is in place ahead of approaching cold front, seen by wind shift extending across ncntl IL. Dew points should be falling into the low to mid 60s, and more or less staying there, thru the remainder of the weekend. Dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s will cause heat indices to flirt with 100 mainly Wed and Thu. All the models showed an initially somewhat amplified western ridge/eastern trof pattern gradually flattening as the western ridge expanded eastward. A cold front was moving southeast into southern IL and southeast MO as of 23z.
/issued 231 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017/ A weak cold front will approach/enter northern Oklahoma late this afternoon and evening. More numerous storms are expected to develop over the high plains of eastern Colorado and New Mexico. Clouds from convection overnight and lingering showers should keep temperatures cooler on Saturday, especially the northern half of Oklahoma. Better rain chances Saturday afternoon and evening will be across the eastern half of Oklahoma where cooler 85-7h temperatures will be along with better near surface moisture.
Focus for any additional storms expected to shift more into southeast OK as a weak cold front moves south. /Issued 418 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017/ This afternoon a cool front was located from Southwest Kansas through the Midwest and the Great Lakes region to a low pressure system positioned across Eastern Canada. Increasing cloud cover overnight should keep low temps tonight in the lower 70s south of I-40 and upper 60s/low 70s north of I-40 with the front/precip moving into the region. Temperatures behind the front look to be a few degrees cooler with forecast highs in the upper 80s/low 90s possible.
720 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 A cold front moving through the region this evening will trigger showers and thunderstorms. Saturday will be cooler and breezy with scattered showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder.
/ISSUED 348 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017/ Surface observations across SE Texas showed temperatures in the low/mid 90s and heat index values from 95 to 105F except for the rain cooled areas from Bay City to Wharton. Upper level ridging tries to build but the ridge remains over the Rockies with a inverted trough over Mexico.
953 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 Under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, temperatures are in the lower 80s along the Florida Keys. Surface wise, a persistent western Atlantic ridge extends across the northwest Bahamian chain and into north Florida. Without any discernible low level disturbance, a decoupled deep tropospheric flow combined with only a light to gentle easterly flow should limit wet convective coverage into the low chance category.
Rather quick moving line of shwrs/tstms associated with summertime cold frontal passage will traverse mid state generally 08/06Z NW to 08/15Z SE.
/issued 422 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017/ Latest IR imagery from this afternoon shows broad troughing over the Ohio Valley and elongated upper level high pressure aloft dominating South Florida.
Our dry break will be interrupted later tonight and Saturday, as a cold front drops southward over the area, bringing along some isolated to scattered thunderstorms. The cold front, which was just south of St. Rather quick moving line of shwrs/tstms associated with summertime cold frontal passage will traverse mid state generally 08/06Z NW to 08/15Z SE.
A brief dry period currently lingers across the mid state before a cold front moves through the area tonight.
1158 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 Aviation Cooler air will briefly return to Lower Michigan tonight through Saturday night behind a cold front that is moving south across southern Lower Michigan.
1057 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017 Surface analysis this afternoon shows a long cold front from central Quebec province extending southwest thru lower Michigan into central Missouri and Kansas. The center of expanding high pressure resides over lower Saskatchewan province into the Central Plains. Aloft, the Upper Mississippi Valley region is squarely placed within northwest flow aloft between a large ridge out west and a longwave trough centered over the Appalachians. This activity is expected to be weak and short-lived as the synoptic features move east through this evening, allowing the high pressure system to the northwest to spread into the north-central CONUS tonight thru tomorrow. Highs will again reach the lower 80s like today while lows early tomorrow morning bottom out in the lower 50s to lower 60s.
The convection building south out of the Ohio Valley is behaving in a manner similar to the higher resolution modeling for the event. Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 88 67 87 / 10 40 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 85 65 85 / 20 40 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 72 86 65 86 / 20 30 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 85 61 83 / 40 40 10 10.
As for any fog potential, guidance still isn't showing much, even with light winds, clear skies, and high pressure overhead.
Upper level ridge over the West continues to impact the region. Diurnally driven thunderstorms have generally been south and east of our forecast area, associated with the center of the ridge. Saturday looks to be slightly warmer as the upper level ridge expands over the area with near record high temperatures in some locations. Thunderstorm chances will be slightly higher on Saturday afternoon and evening over the higher terrain as the center of the ridge approaches the region, especially south of the Snake Plain.
Another round of thunderstorms to be anticipated Saturday, with daytime temps a few degrees cooler.
530 PM MDT Fri Jul 7 2017 Current surface map shows weak high pressure across the Dakotas.
716 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 Strong high pressure building over the North Country today will dominate the regions weather through the weekend with dry conditions above normal temperatures expected.
1051 PM MDT Fri Oct 20 2017 Current surface analysis shows lee trough over the Black Hills area, with trailing cold front from eastern MT through central WY. Upper level analysis shows southwest flow over the area, ahead of large trough over the west coast and the Great Basin. Cold front will track across the area during the evening and into the overnight hours, exiting east of the CWA late tonight. Cooler air filtering in will drop lows into the upper 30s and 40s. Much cooler air will be in place across the area for Saturday, with highs only in the 50s and lower 60s.
Scattered showers will continue this evening as the upper level trough moves across the region. Satellite imagery at 02z shows the back edge of the trough over Harney county. The trough is expected to exit the region by midnight MDT ending the showers. Precipitation will spread eastward along a warm front Saturday morning reaching Burns, Oregon around 13z, Baker City around 17z and Southwest Idaho around 19z. Temperatures will reach the mid to upper 40s Saturday in the lower valleys. Isolated to scattered showers across the higher elevations through 12Z, mainly over the central Idaho mountains. An incoming warm front will spread precipitation across the region as early as 12Z in SE Oregon and 15Z in SW Idaho.
Cold front will shift surface winds from southwest to northwest around 16z at DHT and GUY, and around 19z at AMA, with continued veering, trending to north by late afternoon. Vigorous upper level short wave trough over the northwest U. A cold front will push through the region Saturday afternoon and early evening bringing north winds in the 20 to 30 mph range with higher gusts.
A passing system will bring cooler temperatures Saturday and Saturday night.
Dew points have recovered into the lower 70s, and overnight cloud cover will be mostly thinner, higher based clouds, so the ingredients seem favorable for fog.
A cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma after 19Z Saturday. For Saturday afternoon, a cold front is expected to enter northwest Oklahoma by early to mid afternoon a as mid-level trough ejects into the Plains. Thunderstorms along the cold front are expected to quickly grow upscale into a quasi-linear convective system as it shifts southeastward into central Oklahoma due to strong, linear forcing and shear vectors becoming parallel to the front. Nearly all convective-allowing models (HRRRX/NSSL WRF/HRW WRF- ARW/HRW NMMB) do initiate convection along this trough axis, ahead of the cold front. Any cells that develop along the trough across southwest Oklahoma/western north Texas have the potential to remain discrete/supercellar longer before becoming undercut by the cold front.
759 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 High pressure will shift off to the east through the weekend.
Another cool night in progress across the Mid-State, as patchy cirrus wafts northward along the back side of an upper Ridge that extended from Georgia to West Virginia early this evening. Cirrus clouds are spreading across Middle Tennessee this evening as high pressure continues to slide off to the east.
724 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 Strong high pressure building over the North Country today will dominate the regions weather through the weekend with dry conditions above normal temperatures expected.
807 PM MDT Fri Oct 20 2017 Pcpn was increasing across wrn CO and will gradually move into the mtns as mid lvl qg ascent associated with the upper level trough moves across overnight. Snow amounts over the higher mtns will range fm 2 to 6 inches. Late today into tonight, the higher mountains are forecast to reach 45 kts, especially across the northern mountains and Wyoming border. Highs Saturday will remain cooler, only expected to reach 50-60 on the plains and 30-40 across the higher terrain. Strong northwest flow overnight and a surface lee trough will result in strong downsloping winds over the foothills. While the rest of the plains will likely hit freezing or below, areas in and along the foothills will remain warmer.
924 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 High pressure will extend across the eastern United States through the weekend. High pressure at the surface and aloft will maintain dry and seasonable conditions across central NC tonight. Gradual modification of antecedent dry airmass in place is currently underway, particularly along and west of the Triangle, where sfc dewpoints this evening are running 3 to 6 degrees higher than this same time yesterday, which should translate into warmer overnight lows. Lows ranging from mid 40s in the cooler locations to upper 40s- lower 50s elsewhere. The high pressure system will remain in control of our weather Saturday into Saturday night.
1003 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 High pressure will remain anchored over the Upper Ohio Valley through the weekend.
515 PM MDT Fri Oct 20 2017 Current surface analysis shows lee trough over the Black Hills area, with trailing cold front from eastern MT through central WY. Upper level analysis shows southwest flow over the area, ahead of large trough over the west coast and the Great Basin. Cold front will track across the area during the evening and into the overnight hours, exiting east of the CWA late tonight. Cooler air filtering in will drop lows into the upper 30s and 40s. Much cooler air will be in place across the area for Saturday, with highs only in the 50s and lower 60s.
644 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017 20Z/3 pm surface analysis shows 1025 mb high pressure along the OH/WV border and ridging from the eastern Great Lakes to AL/GA. Dry weather to continue through Saturday as mid/high clouds continue to increase from the SSW ahead of a short wave trof in Texas and nw Gulf of Mexico. Milder lows tonight in the lower 50s in eastern IL and upper 50s from Peoria and Springfield west.
The strong cold front that passed through Utah today will exit the four corners region by late this evening.
GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: An upper-level trough and cold front sweep across the Northern High Plains this evening. Wind continues, veering more to the northwest, through Saturday, as the main trough axis and energy moves over NE Montana, another similar round of light rain showers is expected, mainly near and north of Hwy 2. With the push of much cooler air, highs Saturday should become very close to seasonal norms.
Current observations show the cold front has just pushed through the Rawlins area and is quickly moving eastward. Strong cold front blasts eastward across our counties this evening with strong cold air advection all night. Winds aloft increase to near 45 knots and with downward vertical motion and cold air advection, some locations may approach high wind criteria after cold frontal passage, though we feel the strong winds will be rather isolated, thus have held off on a high wind warning for the overnight. Quite windy and much cooler day in the wake of the cold front and with 700 mb temperatures progged near -6 Celsius, high temperatures will be in the mid 40s at lower elevations west of Interstate 25, with 50s east of I-25.
746 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 High pressure will remain anchored over the Upper Ohio Valley through the weekend.
/issued 346 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017/ Models in general agreement with the pattern as a upper level high pushes to the east as a large amplitude trough pushes towards the Mid-South. Late on Saturday the upper level trough splits and closes off a low that is generally south of the area and this stalls precipitation across the Mid-South providing even more than just with the frontal passage assoicated with the upper low trough. However, this closed upper low gets absorbed into the large upper trough and allows even a colder air mass into the area midweek.
With the high over the same area for the next 24 hours, will expect that the return flow will continue over Michigan keeping the heat going for another day, and beginning to moisten the low levels as the moisture moves north out of the Gulf of Mexico.
801 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 A large and persistent area of high pressure at the surface and aloft will remain over the eastern CONUS through the upcoming weekend.
1120 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 A large and persistent area of high pressure at the surface and aloft will remain over the eastern CONUS through the upcoming weekend.
Benign wx in the evening is expected, but will keep an eye on a line of shra and tstms associated with a cold front moving toward northern parts of the area well after midnight. As a upper trough moves out of the Rockies and into the western Plains tomorrow.
744 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 High pressure will continue to keep our weather pattern dry heading into and through the weekend.
715 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 High pressure will extend across the eastern United States through the weekend. High pressure at the surface and aloft will maintain dry and seasonable conditions across central NC tonight. Min temps lower 40s cooler locations to the upper 40s-lower 50s elsewhere. The high pressure system will remain in control of our weather Saturday into Saturday night.
926 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 A large and persistent area of high pressure at the surface and aloft will remain over the eastern CONUS through the upcoming weekend.
1018 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 High pressure will continue to keep our weather pattern dry heading into and through the weekend.
645 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017 At 6 PM CDT a cold front extended across eastern Montana and will move into western North Dakota this evening. Tonight, an upper level trough begins an eastward progression across the Northern Plains. A strong associated cold front will move east ahead of the upper trough into western North Dakota tonight, then into central ND by 06Z Saturday. A series of upper level troughs are forecast to move across the Northern Plains through the extended.
658 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017 The main weather story over the next day or so is the upper ridge exiting the Plains and the associated surface cold front sweeping across the region. However, the overall moisture profile is lacking with bouts of dry air either in the low or mid levels. Max temps split MAV/MET, but temps could be underdone depending on sky cover, downsloping winds, and a hint of a weak thermal ridge riding off the Rockies late in the day.
Temperatures are in the lower 80s. In the low levels of the atmosphere, an area of high pressure will be located over the Mid-Atlantic United States overnight. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, an area of high pressure will be centered over the southeastern United States tonight. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a ridge of high pressure will pass eastward across the Florida peninsula overnight.
High pressure aloft will remain centered over forecast area. high pressure will remain centered north of forecast area.
Dewpoints are a little higher allowing mins to be a bit warmer overnight. Chattanooga Airport, TN 48 79 56 77 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 77 52 78 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 47 78 51 77 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 42 78 47 76 / 0 0 0 0.