Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
117 AM PDT Mon Sep 27 2021 Westerly winds will increase this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. This cold front will pass through Central California late tonight into Tuesday morning. As a result, high temperatures Tuesday afternoon will be eleven to thirteen degrees cooler than this afternoon.
Today will feature the warmest temperatures with highs in the lower to middle 80s. A weak cold front then brings temperatures back to more seasonable levels for the remainder of the week. Lower 20C at 925mb to Weak, dry cold front from northern Upper Great Lakes to drop southeast into CWA this evening/overnight. Backdoor cold front continues southward through CWA tonight. Shallow nature of cold air infiltrating CWA and ridging aloft as centroid of omega block nears as it envelops Upper Great Lakes to Gulf Coastal region through the forecast period.
The only exception will be along the lakeshore, as some cooler air will likely affect the areas near the shoreline after the past couple days of westerly flow.
High pressure currently centered near the Manitoba/Ontario border will drop southeast through the period, moving into the eastern Great lakes by late Tuesday.
Tuesday starts out with the larger upstream trough pushing farther across the PacNW. Anomalous moisture will be in place across our southern mountains and valleys as this system lifts out and a transitory short wave ridge moves overhead through Tuesday afternoon.
230 AM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021 High pressure centered over the region this morning will slide offshore through Tuesday.
An upper level ridge will continue to build northward across the southern and central Plains states through the period while also advancing slowly eastward. With the ridge axis to the west, an upper level northwest flow pattern will continue with continuing high pressure at the sfc. The area of high pressure will move east on Monday with a light southerly flow developing by Monday afternoon continuing into Tuesday.
Drier air is expected to advect into the low levels to limit fog formation. With plenty of sunshine, temperatures Tuesday afternoon will be several degrees warmer than normal.
Weak northwest flow aloft across the Midsouth today will give way to upper level ridging on Tuesday, as an omega blocking pattern rapidly takes shape. Latest medium range model guidance suggests the western leg of the omega block, a trof over the southwest U. This would displace the axis of the downstream amplified ridge slightly further east, opening the window for the low level theta-e ridge over LA and AR to edge deeper into the Midsouth by midweek.
Early morning water vapor satellite imagery shows a fairly similar synoptic pattern compared to this time yesterday, with longwave troughing in the east, weak ridging in the west, and an embedded cut-off low now centered over east-central AZ. At the surface, a 1003-mb lee trough in far southeast CO is fostering southerly winds across southwest KS, and these winds will persist through the day Monday bringing another day of warm temperatures with highs in the low to mid 90s. Skies will be a bit cloudier today as the upper level cut-off low approaches, especially later in the afternoon, and a few of the CAMs are even trying to develop a few showers/isolated thunderstorms west of Highway 83 during the overnight into early Tuesday period.
Discussion: WV imagery and observations show longwave troughing across the Eastern CONUS with an upper ridge extending from TX through the Central Plains. High pressure will result in continued mostly clear sky tonight with light to calm winds.
An upper-level ridge moves past us to the east, keeping temperatures and humidity levels similar to what they have been this past weekend.
Nothing new to mention in the short term with a high pressure system in place. Skies will remain mostly clear until late Monday night when clouds begin to roll into southeast Wyoming from the south with an approaching low pressure system.
231 AM MDT Mon Sep 27 2021 Strong high pressure will continue to dominate our weather in the short term period, but changes are coming. Pacific trof approaching the coast will result in backing mid/upper level winds. Tonight will again be mild with poor RH recovery over the ridges and along the foothills. S-SW flow will deepen ahead of Pacific trof as it moves to the northern rockies on Tuesday. A cold front associated with this trof should move into our western cwa by mid afternoon. Look for the cold front to accelerate and push across our cwa from west to east in the late afternoon and evening. Models show MSLP dropping to 990-995mb Tuesday afternoon along thermal trof.
330 AM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021 Dry weather is expected today under high pressure. Shower and thunderstorm chances return tonight and Tuesday with a a crossing cold front. Dry weather and seasonable temperatures are then expected through the rest of the week as high pressure builds back in. Otherwise, dry weather is expected today as high pressure tracks east toward the Mid Atlantic region. A sufficient pressure gradient between the high, and an approaching cold front from the Upper Midwest/Wrn Great Lakes region, should result in gusty SW wind after mixing begins this morning. High temperatures are expected to be 5 to 10 degrees above average today with the warmer air aloft in place.
An upper-level ridge moves past us to the east, keeping temperatures and humidity levels similar to what they have been this past weekend. Tuesday will be another mild day as the upper-level ridge begins to push out of the area. In its wake, a cold front moves through sometime Tuesday evening/night bringing with it a widespread chance for rain in the lower elevations and potentially some snow for the higher elevations.
Expect overnight lows to be in the low to mid 60s. Fair weather continues with the tri-state area under the influence of deep layer ridging w/northwest flow aloft that becomes easterly near the surface with high pressure centered over the mid-Atlantic states.
Given the low afternoon dewpoints, the previous shift may wind being 1-2 hours too quick with the onset of fog, but feel their overall forecast should wind up being pretty good. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 58 83 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 58 83 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 81 58 83 59 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 79 55 81 57 82 / 0 0 10 0 10.
233 AM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021 An upper level low over the desert southwest, which is stuck under a broader upper level ridge will continue to churn its way slowly to the east today. The upper level ridge will shift over the Ozarks overnight tonight. The upper low over the southwest will work to increase the amplitude of the ridge over the regional it is picked up by additional upper level energy as a trough digs into the southwest.
1221 AM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021 Dry weather is expected today under high pressure. Showers and a few thunderstorms are then forecast Monday night and Tuesday with a crossing cold front, but dry weather and seasonable temperature is forecast for the remainder of the week. High pressure should maintain dry weather overnight as it slides by to our south. Patchy cloud cover will become thicker north of I-80 later in the day as a cold front sinks across the southern Great Lakes. High temperatures on Monday will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer thanks to the ongoing warm advection.
230 AM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021 Well above normal temperatures are expected again today and Tuesday, as an upper level ridge continues to drift eastward across the region.
1001 PM PDT Sun Sep 26 2021 A slow moving cold front will push across the Inland Northwest on Monday. Precipitation will increase along the cold front Monday afternoon and evening.
Quiet conditions continue overnight into Tuesday morning with min temps falling into the low 60s.
With high pressure still in place over the area, fog formation will likely occur overnight tonight and may be a bit more widespread. Otherwise, expect lows to be a tad warmer only dropping into the mid 50s in most areas. The start of the new work week should continue on a dry and slightly warmer trend, as a more predominate SW flow becomes established. High temperatures should rise into the low/mid 80s on Monday, and mid 80s on Tuesday. Lows Mon night should range in the upper 50s/near 60, and in the lower 60s Tue night. The latest run of the GFS takes this feature farther east into Missouri and Illinois, which shoves the upper-level ridge over the Southeast just far enough east to bring a chance for a few showers over NW Alabama.
127 AM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021 High pressure builds across the region tonight and Monday. A cold front is expected to cross the region Tuesday afternoon and evening, bringing a chance for showers and isolated storms.
135 AM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021 Dry high pressure will dominate the region through Tuesday, with warming temperatures.
1017 PM MDT Sun Sep 26 2021 The latest water vapor images and 500-mb analysis showed a broad upper ridge over the northern CONUS, which will continue to affect the forecast area and maintain dry and unseasonably warm weather through Tuesday. On Tuesday (and possibly even tomorrow/Monday), the potential exists for some record warm temperatures with southerly winds increasing ahead of an approaching low pressure system.
Therefore given the warm air aloft and abnormally dry soil moisture, have opted to go closer to the 75th percentile of the NBM for high temps tomorrow, with some locations reaching the lower 90s. Similar conditions are expected for Tuesday as the area remains under the ridge of high pressure.
/Issued 334 PM EDT Sun Sep 26 2021/ Dry high pressure will persist through the short term. The upper ridge centered west of the MS River will keep us in a stable northwest flow aloft. There will be a gradual warming trend as the lower level winds turn more west to southwest by Monday. have undercut the low temperatures a degree or so in most areas. An upper level ridge across the CONUS will continue to funnel dry air into the deep parts of the southeast, reinforced low pressure across the desert SW will continue to funnel dry into the great plains inevitably into the SE.
Afternoon temperatures will remain cooler than average thanks to these two storm systems. The low which brought the rain over the past couple days is centered over east central AZ as clearly seen on water vapor imagery this evening. Precip overnight into the morning will be moving in from the north on the backside of the low over Pima, southeast Pinal, and Graham counties and is expected to remain isolated in coverage. By Monday afternoon, best chances for any showers or storms will be east of Tucson, in areas of closer proximity to the low. The upper low will drift off to the east Monday with any convection confined to east of Tucson, with the main focus closer to the NM border. High Temperatures through Tuesday running 6-9 degrees cooler than average.
311 AM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021 Weak, elongated low pressure and a cold front sit over the forecast area early this morning. Plenty of sun will help to offset slightly cooler 925/850mb temps oozing southward behind the front, so today looks to be another fairly warm day for most. Lows in the low to mid 40s roughly along/north of I-90, low to mid 50s elsewhere. Upper ridging over the nation's midsection continues to amplify heading into Tue as a deepening trough comes ashore the Pacific Northwest.
SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): 500 mb high pressure centered over the western Gulf of Mexico will produce dry weather for the inland portions of the BRO CWFA today and tonight. On Tuesday, isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms will spread inland as the mid-level ridge shifts east to the central Gulf of Mexico and the available deeper moisture moves west.
Slightly cooler temperatures will return for late this week into the weekend. High pressure will continue to dominate the weather across the Southeast today through tonight. The center of the high pressure will move off the coast tonight as light and variable surface winds become more southwest later today into tonight. Boundary layer temperatures are about 1 to 2 degrees warmer today and winds will shift to the southwest by afternoon.
Another tranquil day in store for the Tennessee Valley, as northwest flow persists aloft amid an upper trough exiting off the northern Atlantic coast and a broad upper ridge continues to shift into the Central Plains. Southerly flow will help raise high temperatures into the low to mid 80s this afternoon, but we remain in a dry airmass through the day. Some changes were made to the short term forecast, as models have diverged a bit regarding the evolution of the upper ridge during the early to mid- week timeframe. The GFS broadens the upper ridge over the lower MS River Valley and into the Southeast, while the ECMWF is a little more amplified.
321 AM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021 Upper level low pressure near the Arizona-New Mexico border early this morning will rotate into central and northern New Mexico later today and tonight. RMcQueen An upper low will be just to our west over northern New Mexico by tomorrow morning and will quickly become absorbed into the main flow as it quickly pushes northward through the afternoon. Things will remain quiet through mid week as we remain under the influence of an elongated upper trough across the Rockies with relatively weak upper flow.
1145 PM EDT Sun Sep 26 2021 Low pressure continues to make its way thru the Western Great Lakes region late this evening. and should eventually come to an end overnight as high pressure begins to build into our region. Meanwhile, a weak and moisture starved cold front will move across the region early tonight perhaps accompanied by a couple of showers. Meanwhile, heights aloft slowly rise as a strengthening ridge builds across the Plains.
158 AM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021 High pressure will build over the region today before slowly pushing east into Tuesday. Slightly warmer conditions can be expected today and Tuesday before our next weak cold front pushes through. Another round of cooler air arrives with an area of high pressure building in later in the workweek. Upper-level trough continues to move northeast and flow begins to become westerly again. Expect another clear, sunny, and dry day today with high pressure in control. 500MB pattern amplifies Monday and Tuesday with an upper ridge over the central United States and troughing over the east. The short wave entering trough Monday night rounds the base and is off the coast by Tuesday night.
1048 PM PDT Sun Sep 26 2021 Rain showers are still on track Monday afternoon and night along with cooler temperatures.
345 AM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021 A fairly strong upper-level trough remains in place overhead. It also means slightly cooler morning lows given the light winds and efficient radiational cooling.
High and mid level clouds should be on the increase from south to north through the night as a closed low in the desert southwest moves slowly to the northeast. Monday should be slightly cooler with the winds turning to the south to southeast negating some of the downslope heating along with the layer of high and mid level clouds across the region. Highs should be in the lower to mid 90s. An upper level low will move from Baja California into the Rockies from Monday into Tuesday and then eventually turn into a longwave trough.
For the rest of today, expect another warmer than average day with ridging across the area.
Fire weather conditions are expected to ramp up again this afternoon as temps rise into the low to mid 90s, RH values drop to around 25% and gusty south/southwest winds will increase through the morning. The pattern begins to change as we head into Tuesday as the central CONUS ridge shifts east in response to an upper level low slowly lifting out of the Desert Southwest.
Attention then turns towards mid to late week as an upper trough moves through the PacNorthwest. In addition to the western trough, another trough will be deepening over New England while making very little eastwards progress. As a result, the ridge over the central conus will be squished between these two systems, but will aid in modest moisture transport midweek under modest southerly flow.
101 AM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021 High pressure shifts off the coast through Tuesday.
A moisture-starved short wave trough coming in from the west may bring a few clouds to the region tonight. Under sunny skies, highs on Monday will be near 80 in the east to the lower 90s in the southwest cwa. Tuesday still looks to be the day of the week with the highest temperatures, topping out in the mid 80s to low 90s (lowest over far northeastern SD and west central MN).
(Today and tonight) A mid-level trough will start to move into the Southern Plains today. Temperatures today should be in the low 90s, and lows tonight in the mid 60s across Oklahoma.
This is thanks to surface ridging that will remain centered across the SE US through the short term forecast. The ridge will begin to weaken over the short term though from ~1022 mb to ~1016 mb. Although winds will be light overall, daytime winds will shift from northerly yesterday to southwest today due to some shifting of the ridge center. Our airmass will continue to moderate with slightly warmer temperatures expected today and again on Tuesday.
1229 AM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021 (This evening through Monday) An upper level low, currently over Arizona, will gradually track east into New Mexico by tomorrow afternoon.
1027 AM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021 Dry weather is expected today under high pressure. Shower and thunderstorm chances return tonight and Tuesday with a crossing cold front. Dry weather and seasonable temperatures are then expected through the rest of the week as high pressure builds back in. More sun than clouds will be seen this afternoon as high pressure tracks to our south. Gusty wind of up to 25 MPH will continue this afternoon with a decent surface pressure gradient between the high and an approaching cold front.
435 AM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021 Today: This morning, GOES-E WV imagery & synoptic/RAP analysis indicate cutoff low trough axis situated over Desert SW. Mid-level ridge axis is situated over the S Plains into TX. Tonight: As cutoff low slowly ejects E-NE into Intermountain W, mid- level ridge builds E. As low-level warm front to the SW over the N Gulf builds N-NE, moisture & boundary layer moisture will increase. Might be a tad warmer in the W.
526 AM MDT Mon Sep 27 2021 Upper analysis shows a broad upper ridge over region which will maintain dry and unseasonably warm weather over the forecast area today through Tuesday. On Tuesday, the potential exists for some record warm temperatures with southerly winds increasing ahead of an approaching low pressure system.
There is a pretty consistent model signal for scattered showers and elevated t-storms to develop over parts of central PA late tonight (after 06Z) ahead of a cold front dropping southeast from the lower Great Lakes. Models agree that a cold front will cross over PA during the day Tuesday which will prompt scattered showers and possible tstorms.
As a low pressure system begins to dig southward along the Pacific northwest coast today, western Montana and central Idaho will be placed under southwest flow aloft. Breezy winds are also expected this afternoon as high pressure begins to weaken ahead of an approaching cold front. A big change is still on track as a cold front moves through the region late tonight into Tuesday morning. Precipitation is also expected to develop with and behind the cold front, with the greatest precipitation totals expected through central Idaho and near the Idaho/northwest Montana border.
Well above normal temperatures are expected again today and Tuesday, as an upper level ridge continues to drift eastward across the region.
625 AM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021 High pressure centered over the region this morning will slide offshore through Tuesday.
1018 AM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021 A weak cold front will approach today and slide through the region on Tuesday. Dry weather will then prevail through the rest of the work week as ridging builds into the Ohio Valley. A cold front will push south through the area during the day on Tuesday. Temperatures will be warm in the southwesterly surface flow ahead of the weakening cold front. Model solutions are in fairly good agreement with amplified mid level flow with a deep trof over the northeast and a ridge over the Mississippi Valley.
520 AM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021 Weak, elongated low pressure and a cold front sit over the forecast area early this morning. Plenty of sun will help to offset slightly cooler 925/850mb temps oozing southward behind the front, so today looks to be another fairly warm day for most. Lows in the low to mid 40s roughly along/north of I-90, low to mid 50s elsewhere. Upper ridging over the nation's midsection continues to amplify heading into Tue as a deepening trough comes ashore the Pacific Northwest.
Breezy to windy conditions, due to an approaching low pressure system, will affect northern and central Nevada today. A passing cold front later today through tomorrow will bring increasing chances for light precipitation over the area, along with much cooler temperatures tomorrow.
Today Through Tuesday Night The warming trend continues through Monday, with an upper level ridge building across the region. The upper ridge will slow the progression of an incoming upper level low over the southwest United States the next 24 hours. The ridge will slowly shift eastward as the upper low weakens, becoming an open wave on the west side of the ridge.
935 AM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021 With lower dewpoints, mostly clear skies, and light winds, many locations across east central Florida saw their coolest morning since late May with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s for lows this morning, and a few more rural locations across northern Lake and northern Volusia counties even fell into the low 60s. High pressure across the region will maintain dry conditions today. With the high centered well north of the area, northeast winds increase to 10-15 knots this afternoon.
632 AM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021 Upper level low pressure rotating into west-central New Mexico will move to north-central New Mexico by 12Z Tuesday. /issued 321 AM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021/ Upper level low pressure near the Arizona-New Mexico border early this morning will rotate into central and northern New Mexico later today and tonight. RMcQueen An upper low will be just to our west over northern New Mexico by tomorrow morning and will quickly become absorbed into the main flow as it quickly pushes northward through the afternoon. Things will remain quiet through mid week as we remain under the influence of an elongated upper trough across the Rockies with relatively weak upper flow.
522 AM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021 The Florida Keys are getting a small taste of fall, with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Skies are mostly clear and temperatures are in the lower 80s across the island chain.
628 AM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021 A weak cold front will approach today and slide through the region on Tuesday. Dry weather will then prevail through the rest of the work week as ridging builds into the Ohio Valley. A cold front will push south through the area during the day on Tuesday. Temperatures will be warm in the southwesterly surface flow ahead of the weakening cold front. Model solutions are in fairly good agreement with amplified mid level flow with a deep trof over the northeast and a ridge over the Mississippi Valley.
Thompson (Today and tonight) A mid-level trough will start to move into the Southern Plains today. Temperatures today should be in the low 90s, and lows tonight in the mid 60s across Oklahoma.
614 AM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021 (Today and tonight) An upper level low will move east into central New Mexico this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms had already developed over the Southwest Mountains earlier tonight as the upper low approached. Temperatures today will be a couple degrees cooler over the Concho Valley southward to Ozona and Sonora, where clouds and storms are possible.