Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
526 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018 Building high pressure should maintain mainly dry weather through the weekend. Low pressure passing well south of the region could bring a rain or snow shower to the southern border of the forecast area. Models continue to trend southward with Saturday-Saturday night low pressure.
However, a strong thermal ridge will form over the eastern panhandle border area by late afternoon, and the strong winds will be a near given.
304 AM MDT Fri Mar 23 2018 A large Pacific storm system will continue to move inland for unsettled and cooler conditions through the upcoming weekend. Large upper low off the PacNW coast continues to spin in place overnight/this morning, while pronounced upper ridging persists over the Dakotas and Saskatchewan. With neither feature moving much, an upper disturbance with surface warm front continues to produce a persistent area of rain, with wet snow mainly north of US Highway 2 toward the Canadian border. This precipitation will end from west to east this morning as some drying moves in behind the exiting disturbance and the downstream ridging begins to move east. The greatest shower coverage may end up being from Bozeman to Lewistown where the low/mid level flow is more convergent.
336 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018 Today: Main concern is thunderstorm potential in the vicinity of cold front in central KS late this afternoon.
Elsewhere, look for more sunshine and warmer temperatures.
Areas of rain will diminish by midday as a trough quickly moves through the region. This will remain the case through mid morning as a trough and associated cold front cross the region. Precipitation will diminish by late morning as the trough quickly moves through the region.
Conditions are generally drying behind last night's cold front, but scattered rain and snow showers can be expected through this morning. West- central Montana will also likely see snow with the cold front passage during Saturday, but impacts to paved surfaces appear unlikely with the snow expected during the day.
The long wave trough to our east will move quickly away today allowing a ridge to approach from the west.
There may be some spotty shower/isolated thunderstorm activity later today and tonight across eastern sections as a cold front pushes across the area. Poor fire weather conditions will persist into Saturday as drier air arrives and north winds kick up behind the cold front.
A short wave trough will move across the region today while at the surface ridging begins to build in from the west. Temperatures will run below normal by around 5 degrees with highs from the lower 30s to lower 40s with some upper 20s across the highest terrain above 2500 feet in the western Adirondacks, eastern Catskills and southern Green Mountains.
An H100-H70 anticyclone centered over the lower MS Valley will drift east in the wake of a nor'easter lifting into the Canadian Maritimes.
337 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018 Low pressure will track across Newfoundland today. An upper level low from northern Quebec will cross the region on Saturday.
332 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018 To begin this forecast the central United States is under the influence of large-scale ridging with troughing along the west and east coasts. This light rain, which for the most part isn't reaching the ground, is the result of modest warm-air advection underneath the main ridge axis. Mid-level ridging returns temporarily late Saturday night before southwest flow aloft begins, signaling the beginning of a fairly cloudy and unsettled weather pattern.
/issued 931 PM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018/ High pressure will continue overnight. /Issued 309 PM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018/ Benign fcst period on tap with ridge-dominated regime under NW flow. Temps should stay above freezing tomorrow morning for areas aside from the NE mtns.
As a low level ridge of high pressure slides into the southeast overnight, expect lighter winds and mostly clear skies. Upper level trough axis is situated to the east with an upper level ridge building into the central CONUS. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure slides across the area on Friday with moisture increasing on Saturday as the center of the high shifts into the Atlantic and low level winds become southerly.
1013 PM PDT Thu Mar 22 2018 The threat of precipitation will ease from west to east this as a cold front moves through tonight. The air mass behind the cold front will be considerably colder and unsettled with a chance of rain and snow showers each day through the weekend. /Pelatti 06Z TAFs: Cold front passage allowing drier conditions to move into the aviation area.
117 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018 Building high pressure should maintain mainly dry weather through the weekend. Low pressure passing well south of the region could bring a rain or snow shower to the southern border of the forecast area. Models continue to trend southward with Saturday-Saturday night low pressure.
This all due in part to sfc cyclogenesis in the lee of the Rockies and high pressure across the southeast Conus. Looking aloft, upper ridging will begin to flatten late today into the overnight hours across the Southern Plains in response to a deepening trough across the Pacific Northwest. A weak disturbance across the Central Plains will allow for a cold front to move into eastern Oklahoma Saturday morning but the airmass in the wake of this boundary is shallow and thus it will likely remain hung up in the Ouachitas to our north and west during the day Saturday.
416 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018 Moderating high pressure settled over the Deep South this morning will move east through Saturday with onshore flow becoming better established over the central Gulf Coast region through the weekend. Upper ridging to the west will present a northwest flow regime into the Lower Mississippi Valley that will usher a frontal boundary into the mid-section of the Gulf States but stalling north of the forecast area.
High pressure is centered over Alabama this morning and will remain over the Southeast through the afternoon. The high pressure system will slide east of the area by Saturday morning. This will allow the next storm system to push into the Plains and push/develop a warm front through the northern portions of the area after Midnight.
345 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018 Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows upper level ridge over the central United States and upper level trough over the western United States. Latest 07z surface analysis indicates high pressure over northern Minnesota and and northern Wisconsin with the metars reporting temperatures in the teens to lower to middle 30s across the area.
Then chances for light precipitation will increase by late afternoon Saturday as a low pressure system moves through the region.
All models agree that clouds will be increasing today, and precipitation will be moving in tonight as an area of isentropic lift develops north of a warm front moving in from the south.
This will draw much warmer air into the high plains with H85 temperatures climbing into the lower to mid 20s(C). With any early morning cloud cover expected to scatter out through the day, look for widespread 80s(F) for highs this afternoon with the lower 90s(F) a distinct possibility in some locations. A cold front will push through western Kansas Friday night allowing cooler air to filter down into western Kansas. Dry conditions will persist through the weekend as weak upper level ridging moves out of the Central/Southern Rockies into the Central Plains during the period.
Through the overnight hours and into the day on Friday, high pressure at the surface will drift east and moisture will increase across the region. By Saturday morning, the developing low will have made its way east toward southern Missouri with a cold front trialing to the southwest.
310 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018 Low pressure will continue to shift off to the east today and tonight. A trough of low pressure will will drop south through the region on Saturday and saturday night.
239 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018 Extensive surface ridging will remain entrenched over the area as strong high pressure builds through Ontario in Quebec this weekend.
411 AM MDT Fri Mar 23 2018 Current obs across the area show pretty mild temperatures for 3 AM with most locations above 40 degrees, with even a few places in the lower 50's. Gusts are now between 40 to 50 mph, and if they continue to weaken, may end up cancelling the High Wind Warning for that area before noon today.
The highest gusts of 25-30kt are expected at CNM/HOB, though gusts to 20-25kt are likely elsewhere, with gusts diminishing areawide after 24/00Z. /issued 344 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018/ Mid level ridge axis will move off to the east on Friday, with southwest flow aloft developing in advance of a upper level trough developing along the West Coast. Dry conditions continue this weekend, with slightly cooler temperatures.
A cold upper low will produce showers and scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening with small hail possible.
Otherwise, temperatures are just above freezing for most of the area. Looking at Aberdeen/Watertown, once the column saturates we go to snow, with surface temperatures around/above freezing. We then lose saturation within the dendritic growth zone once the best forcing moves northeast, while surface temperatures hover at or just slightly above freezing. So, to reiterate all the uncertainties with this system: it will take a little while to saturate down, ground and air temperatures are right around freezing if not just a little above which will have little effect on snow accumulation but will probably keep the ice issues to a minimum. Depending on time of day and surface temps, some of the "rain" chances could end up turning into freezing rain chances.
400 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018 Broad upper level trough was over the eastern Pacific and western US. An upper level ridge was over the Northern Plains. Thermal ridge will shift east across the area today and produce warm advection precip today and tonight. Departing snow in the east with light freezing rain or rain west of the valley possible Saturday as winter storm impacting region in the short term pulls out of the area.
353 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018 Satellite imagery this morning shows a large ridge axis extending north across the front range of the Rockies, leaving a northwest flow in place across our section of the Plains. This will help enhance the return flow from the Gulf today, sharpening up a warm front wallowing across western Missouri, likely bringing a lot of cloud cover to our region as isentropic upglide ramps up across the warm front this afternoon, along with the potential for some drizzle. Showers will be rather wide spread across northern Missouri later tonight as the trough moves across the Plains, though heaviest rainfall amounts will likely be in areas of northeast to eastern Missouri late tonight into Saturday morning.
133 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018 An approaching pressure ridge will extend through the forecast area tonight. The ridge will move off the Southeast Coast Saturday with a warm front moving just north of the area. The boundary will become diffuse over the weekend as high pressure tries to ridge into the forecast area from the north.
The mild airmass with deep moisture has been shunted to the south and east by yesterday afternoon's cold front replaced with a colder and drier airmass. Current temperatures are running 10-20 degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago, and DP's are running 15-30 degrees lower. The next cold front will drop south tonight bringing showers to the Sacramento region and renewed snowfall to the northern Sierra Nevada.
Unseasonably cold weather continues with a persistent northerly flow and a larger upper trof. Much colder air follows the low and despite the late season, to looks to be cold enough to activate the lake resulting in scattered snow showers and flurries tonight into Saturday. Yet another upper low drops in Saturday night enhancing the chance for snow showers, especially over the Catskills. Saturday a weak ridge of high pressure will be over the area.
/issued 617 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018/ Upper level high pressure ridge overhead this evening will shift east with increasing southwest flow aloft - and increasing high level clouds. Models remain in good agreement with upper level ridging shifting to the east of the region early Friday being replaced by southwesterly mid to upper flow as an upper level trough dives down the West Coast into the desert southwest. Friday still looks to be the warmest day with record warmth likely and the possibility for wind advisory level wind speeds across the northwestern zones in response to a low amplitude short wave trough translating across the Rockies.
Temperatures will remain below normal and cooler than today with more clouds which will be low. Best chance as usual in the eastern Finger Lakes to north branch Susquehanna across the higher terrain. On Friday an upper level closed low will drop through the area with some added low level moisture and lift. Friday night snow showers tapering off as the low level flow shifts to the northeast and the cold air advection ebbs. Saturday a weak ridge of high pressure will be over the area.
145 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018 High pressure in place tonight and exiting Friday. Another low pressure system this weekend. Have hemmed and hawed about removing the flurry potential in the highest ridges of the northeast mountains for the rest of today given the moisture depth issues, but have left them in for a few more hours with the stubborn stratocu over that area. No real chances for temperature recovery from the cold week going into Friday, but there will be modest increases with some of the lowland areas topping the 50 degree mark. Low pressure, and its attendant upper level short wave trough, tracks east-southeast, and pass of the area, late friday night through Saturday.
* Low for cig aob 5kft Extensive surface ridging will remain entrenched over the area as strong high pressure builds through Ontario in Quebec this weekend.
634 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018 Low pressure will track across Newfoundland today. An upper level low from northern Quebec will cross the region on Saturday.
The associated cold front will then sweep through the region around sunrise Saturday morning, pushing any lingering showers and thunderstorms out for the rest of Saturday.
438 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018 High pressure today. High pressure to end the weekend and start the next work week with a warming trend. A beautiful end to the work week with weak high pressure nosing in from the north. I do expect a pretty decent fall in temperatures this evening, with light flow and very dry air in the low levels. Models showing a low pressure system moving south of the area Saturday and Saturday night. With all this uncertainty, will only issue a winter storm watch in the higher elevations of eastern Raleigh and Fayette counties where confidence is highest. A high pressure system will build in for the end of the weekend and the beginning of the next work week. As the high slides off to the east milder temperatures can be expected across the area.
409 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018 Building high pressure should maintain mainly dry weather through the weekend. Low pressure passing well south of the region could bring a rain or snow shower to the southern border of the forecast area. Models continue to trend southward with Saturday-Saturday night low pressure.
There is still a concern some lake induced clouds will develop along the North Shore down into far western Lake Superior as the low level flow becomes more easterly tonight. Surface and upper level ridging will cover the forecast area tonight and Friday. Upper level ridging remains over the forecast area Friday evening. However, an approaching upper long wave trof, with embedded pieces of vorticity, will move into western Minnesota late Friday night and linger Saturday morning. The upper trof washes out by Saturday afternoon allowing ridging to rebuild across the region.
227 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018 High pressure will be over the area today with dry conditions. The ridge will move off the Southeast Coast Saturday with a warm front and showers moving in to the north.
422 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018 (Today and Tonight) Expect warmer than normal temperatures again today with gusty south winds across the entire region. (Saturday through Friday) Significant changes to the weather are expected through the next 7 days as an upper level low pressure system develops across the western U.
A mid-to-upper level ridge will allow warmer than normal weather with little to no precipitation to continue through the weekend as the atmosphere will continue to remain strongly capped. Temperatures are remaining in the low to mid 60s across the region due to these low clouds, but they should begin to lift and become more broken early this afternoon to allow temperatures to climb into the 80s again.
425 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018 Under clear skies and surging north to northeast winds off the south Florida mainland, temperatures range from the upper 50s in the Upper Keys to the lower to mid 60s in the Lower Keys. Surface wise, an expansive ridge of high pressure covers the entire Eastern United States with a ridge axis reaching across the Sunshine State.
Winds gradually increase into the 20 to 30 mph range across the west by noon slowly veering to the west then northwest in the afternoon as a cold front moves through. Afternoon temperatures look to range from the low to mid 70s along and north of the KS/NE border to the low to mid 80s south of the interstate. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and behind the cold front. Low temperatures range from the low/mid 30s west to low 40s east.
429 PM MST Sun Dec 3 2017 Southwest flow aloft has developed over the Central High Plains ahead of a deepening trough over the northwest US. A warm front is in the process of passing over our CWA, while opaque high cloud cover has dampened radiational heating so far this afternoon. Tonight-Monday: A strong cold front is still expected to move across our CWA late tonight through Monday as the upper level trough in the northwest US transitions east. A strong lobe of vorticity along leading edge of trough axis will pas over our CWA during the day Monday, however moisture advection remains cutoff and a deep dry layer should keep conditions dry. Northwest locations could be below freezing by the later part of the afternoon. 5 anomaly passes over our our CWA by midday Monday with main upper level trough.
GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: An upper trough is moving through the western CONUS and into Montana this afternoon. Skies have been cloudy all day, but precipitation has had to struggle through drier air in the lower atmosphere to reach the ground. Skies will briefly clear some overnight after the trough passes through, allowing temperatures to drop to the lower teens along the Canadian border by Monday morning, as well as some gusty north winds.
510 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2017 Overall, the synoptic scale still appears similar with strong cold front associated upper trough over the intermountain west shifting east into the plains. Cold front is expected to work through the area in the morning hours with temperatures falling behind the front.
We continue to carry the highest PoPs across the eastern third, again along the coastal convergence zone and sea breeze circulation. Temperatures will be warmer with a little less cloud cover and rain.
Cigs will improve after 12-14Z as lower level flow veers ahead of approaching and fast moving cold front. Southerly winds will continue to transport moisture northward across the region tonight into Monday ahead of a cold front. The cold front is expected to move into NW Oklahoma mid to late Monday morning moving across the rest of the area by Monday evening. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon/night as the cold front moves into the better moisture of SE portions of the fa. Colder and drier air will move into the area behind the cold front on gusty NW winds.
400 PM PST Sun Dec 3 2017 Strong high pressure will build over the region this upcoming week. The upper trough has pushed east of the region with drier north-northwest flow moving in behind it. JW Persistent long wave pattern shows a high amplitude blocking ridge over the western US through the week.
/issued 243 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2017/ The upper trough over the Rockies will amplify as it moves east through the week. Downsloping northwest winds will keep temperatures warm for one more day, with highs ranging from the low 60s northwest to the upper 70s in the Rolling Plains tomorrow.
/issued 330 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2017/ Water vapor imagery continues to shows a dirty ridge of high pressure over the region this afternoon, with southwesterly flow aloft. For this reason, temperatures are running similar too or slightly warmer than this time yesterday. The main focus of the forecast continues to be with the approaching cold front.
524 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2017 High pressure remains in place through Monday.
Strong high pressure aloft will cover the western states through the upcoming week.
445 PM MST Sun Dec 3 2017 Broad upper ridging covers the central CONUS, and the next trough to affect the region is pushing numerous clouds into the northern plains. Wintry weather will arrive abruptly tonight as the upper trough crosses the Rockies. A strong cold front will sweep through the region tonight, and precipitation (rain changing to snow) will expand from west to east. A secondary wave associated with the upper trough will slide through the area Monday night, bringing another round of upslope snow to the northern Hills, and a reinforcing shot of cold air.
An upper level trough and associated cold pool is exiting the area to the east this afternoon.
633 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2017 Dry high pressure building across the region will move offshore late Monday.
828 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2017 A little surface boundary is in place across the northern half of the area this evening with high pressure to the north. The boundary will wash out overnight with ridging remaining across the state from the north and northeast as the high center moves off to the NE.
Cold front has moved east of the area and drier air is moving into the region.
1002 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2017 High pressure and light winds tonight will be a good setup for patchy fog once again like last night.
526 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2017 Dry high pressure building across the region will move offshore late Monday.
250 PM PST Sun Dec 3 2017 Strong high pressure will build over the region this upcoming week. The upper trough has pushed east of the region with drier north-northwest flow moving in behind it. JW Persistent long wave pattern shows a high amplitude blocking ridge over the western US through the week.
On Monday, with dry air still filtering in, expect another benign weather day with maximum temperatures in the low 80s, a couple degree above seasonal norms.
Broad upper ridging covers the central CONUS, and the next trough to affect the region is pushing numerous clouds into the northern plains. Wintry weather will arrive abruptly tonight as the upper trough crosses the Rockies. A strong cold front will sweep through the region tonight, and precipitation (rain changing to snow) will expand from west to east. A secondary wave associated with the upper trough will slide through the area Monday night, bringing another round of upslope snow to the northern Hills, and a reinforcing shot of cold air.
SCT STRATOCU HAVE MOVED NORTH THIS AFTN LEAVING SKIES RELATIVELY CLEAR IN THE LOWER LVLS. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO A WEAK TROF THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE INCREASE MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THE TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
553 PM MDT SAT MAR 14 2015 AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A NE-SW ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE RIDGE WAS FLANKED BY TROUGHS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND GREAT LAKES.
851 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING.