Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Clear skies and seasonable warmth continue this afternoon with only meager upslope Cu forming in elevated terrain as a quick ridge keeps a lid on the regions weather today. Tomorrow, ridge will begin to break down and 500mb heights fall as a cooler airmass approaches, but not before another day of plentiful sun and warmth at the lower levels.
rare summer cold front has ushered in some cooler air and lower humidity readings across the entire CWA. A cold front is working its way through the Bluegrass region as it pushes a line of showers east out of central Kentucky. This clearing trend will continue as northwest surface winds bring in high pressure behind the front. Skies will begin to slowly clear and slightly cooler temperatures will be felt. Expect winds to be between 10-15 mph for most of the day, so highs in the upper 80s to low 90s will hopefully feel a little cooler than the past few days.
500 mb ridging anchored in place over the RGV is maintaining a very stable atms over the region. 500mb subtropical ridge across New Mexico and northwest Texas will move little tonight through Sat night and will continue to provide subsidence across south Texas through the short term.
Current temperatures are generally running at or several degrees warmer compared to this time yesterday. A broad upper level ridge located in the Southwestern US will be largely responsible for the widespread and persistent above normal temperatures for much of the Golden State. The strength and scale of this ridge is impressive; most forecast models are advertising geopotential heights at 500 millibars maxing at 600 decameters over New Mexico, and heights at/above 590 decameters over nearly all of California by Saturday.
947 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 The cold front will push to the east this evening.
724 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 The weekend is expected to be cooler, with highs rising into the low to mid 80s.
This will be several degrees cooler than what we saw this morning and should set us up to see cooler Apparent Temperatures tomorrow afternoon, but it will certainly feel hot if you're standing outside in the sun.
Quiet weather through Saturday as high pressure builds into the region.
308 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020 An upper vort max working in tandem with a cold front fired up thunderstorms across the eastern zones this afternoon.
538 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020 The upper ridge over the region will continue to shift eastward as an upper trough approaches from the west. At the surface, an area of low pressure has developed over northeastern Wyoming, with an inverted trough extending northward into eastern Montana. Destabilization is occurring across northeastern Wyoming ahead of a quickly moving cold front in eastern Montana and a dryline in northeastern Wyoming. Saturday will be slightly cooler than today.
635 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020 High pressure will bring quiet and cooler weather to central and southeast Illinois tonight. High pressure currently over MO will slide southeast to the mid Mississippi Valley tonight. With a dry column and light winds, overnight lows will be cooler than the last several, ranging from the lower 60s in east central IL, to the upper 60s in west central IL. Shower and thunderstorm chances linger late Saturday night with the passage of the mid level trof.
with one shower just north of Chattanooga the others mainly in the mountains ahead of weak cold front that will move across the region between now and around midnight. A few showers and thunderstorms were still moving across east Tennessee early this evening mainly northeast Tennessee ahead of a cold front moving into eastern Tennessee.
High pressure ridge then brings warming and dry conditions for Saturday. Anglin High pressure brings sunny and warmer conditions across the region on Saturday.
739 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 The cold front will push to the east this evening.
Temps wee in the 90s across all of the plains, with temps approaching 100F along the lower elevations of the I-25 corridor region. Later this evening higher dwpt air to our east will likely work back westward to the mountains, and min temps will only fall into the 60s across most of the plains, with a 70 or to possible along the lower ark rvr valley. It will be a few degrees cooler across most of the plains tomorrow, and I do not think any of the plains will see temps reaching into the 100s. A relatively flat ridge of high pressure will continue across the desert southwest, stretching east across TX and OK through the period.
745 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon/evening as a cold front approaches. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue overnight as the center of a low pressure system lingers over Lake Erie. By early Saturday morning, the low pressure system mentioned above will swing across I-80 and morph into a weak trough.
This is due to the 500mb positive vorticity advection associated with the low pressure moving from northern North Dakota into southwest Wisconsin late this afternoon. Along the low pressure system's track will be a moisture and instability gradient with CAPE values around 3000 J/kg west and south of Madison and lower amounts as you head north and east. Shear will also increase as the low approaches with 30-40 knots mainly west and south of Madison. Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the 70s.
Today: Upper wave will continue to drop into southeastern North Dakota by daybreak, potentially inducing a few more scattered storms in the lower Red River valley. Further west, slightly cooler air today is expected, and dew points should begin to mix down into the 50s by late afternoon. Sunday: High pressure will keep light winds light and variable on Sunday.
236 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 The weekend is expected to be cooler, with highs rising into the low to mid 80s. Post-frontal airmass bringing less humid conditions and more comfortable temperatures to the area to begin the short term with morning lows in the low-mid 60s.
An unsettled pattern for the weekend with a mid-level trough sitting over the region. At the surface, a trough over the Atlantic and another off the Gulf coast are providing some lift for convection this morning.
316 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 A cold front will bring another round of scattered showers and storms today, along with relief from the heat. Low pressure over the western end of Lake Erie will swing northeastward today, accompanied by a 500mb trough axis and a weakening frontal boundary. Support for lift from the trough and front will bring scattered to numerous rain showers and a few thunderstorms today, with the best coverage to the north and east of Pittsburgh where better upper divergence is indicated. Precipitation will end during the evening hours as the trough and front pull off to the east, with a good portion of the overnight hours remaining dry.
High pressure will remain across the region through the weekend. A weak dry cold front will move into northern Utah late Sunday, bringing a slight cooling trend to the north with continued hot temperatures across the south to begin the new week. High pressure centered over southern AZ/NM this evening will continue to strengthen tomorrow, leading to a continued warming trend across the area.
Strong upper level ridging, generally centered over New Mexico, will dominate area weather and bring continued hot and dry conditions. However, due to the expected duration of the higher ambient temps and broad geographic scale, in coordination with surrounding offices have issued another one for Saturday.
An upper low just west of the tri-border point of ND/Sask/MB (over Estevan, Sask) sinks southeastward through the CWA this morning and exists the southeastern zones by mid- to late afternoon. Cooler H500 lows vcnty of the upper low could help produce some small hail with the stronger storms. Cloud cover and a slightly cooler airmass should limit afternoon highs to the upper 70s to right around 80 for most of the area.
Cooler morning temperatures are anticipated Sunday as a result of the drier dew points, but the clear skies will promote ample daytime warming, with highs generally 1 to 4 degrees above normal today and Sunday. Even with highs in the mid to upper 90s over middle Georgia, the lower humidity will mitigate any Heat Advisory concerns.
Low pressure will then track southeast across the region on Sunday.
225 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2020 High pressure today will bring mostly clear skies to NE Montana. An upper ridge will build over Montana today with warmer temperatures. The ridge will move to the east on Sunday and temperatures will warm into the 90s in most areas ahead of a cold front that will move through the forecast area Sunday afternoon and evening.
102 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 A cold front will will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms today, but will cool temperature back to seasonable levels.
1238 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020 After a quiet day today and just a tad cooler and less humid, CAMs continue to indicate development of an MCS either over southern South Dakota or northern Nebraska by this evening. Byrd Sunday will be a bit cooler and drier as weak cold front exits the forecast area. Otherwise, attention turns to the strong upper level ridge that will build east/west across the southern half of the U.
Areas near the lake will be a little warmer with lows in the low 60s. Enjoy the more comfortable conditions! On Sunday, north to northwesterly flow aloft will be in place over the Northland as an upper level ridge begins to push in from the west.
1149 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon/evening as a cold front approaches. Area of upper divergence ahead of the approaching trough axis is continuing some showers across southern portions of the CWA at this time. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue overnight as the center of a low pressure system lingers over Lake Erie. By early Saturday morning, the low pressure system mentioned above will swing across I-80 and morph into a weak trough.
Meanwhile an upper ridge remained centered over NM and the southwestern U. At the surface, a mesoscale high pressure system associated with convection was building into southeast NEB and an outflow boundary has moved into north central KS. The cold front should eventually push through this evening bringing an end to precip chances and lows in the 60s.
winds on the increase once again as another low pressure system tracks into northwestern Wyoming.
WV imagery shows a strong upper ridge centered over NM, w/both KABQ and KEPZ raobs coming in w/500mb heights of 600dam, and KMAF just under. Heights begin decreasing after today as the ridge begins shifting east, but thicknesses are forecast to slowly increase thru Mon/Tue, when warmest temps are anticipated. 24 hours ago, models re-centered the ridge later in the week over the ArkLaTex, but latest runs keep it more over central Texas, which will necessitate hiking temps a degree or two in the extended. Either way, no relief is in sight until Wed, when thicknesses begin coming down as the ridge repositions east. Chances of rain look slim-to-none in the short term, but isolated convection will be possible beginning Tue night over the higher terrain out west as the ridge shifts east.
Northwesterly mid-level flow will persist through the rest of the period as upper ridging remains anchored across the Southwest. The evolution of this feature will have significant bearing on temps through the day -- while hot/humid weather is nearly guaranteed based on abundant moisture and our proximity to upper ridging, precip and cloud debris very well may foul the forecast for central and southern Arkansas.
with one shower just north of Chattanooga the others mainly in the mountains ahead of weak cold front that will move across the region between now and around midnight. VFR will prevail through the next 24 hours as the cold front shifts south tonight allowing drier air and high pressure to work in from the west. RG Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 70 91 71 91 / 0 10 50 40 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 69 89 69 88 / 0 10 50 50 20 Oak Ridge, TN 91 68 89 68 88 / 0 10 50 40 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 65 87 66 85 / 0 0 50 50 20.
/issued 235 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020/ The large, in charge upper ridge centered over the region will continue to control the weather for the foreseeable future.
Today will be warm and dry with some fair weather cumulus clouds as the region is dominated by a ridge. Sunday a trough moves through the area. The trough will cause breezy conditions with winds gusting over 20 mph in many areas Sunday evening. A ridge will affect the region today causing VFR conditions with some fair weather cumulus clouds. As the ridge starts to break down this evening there will also be an increase in high clouds with southwest flow aloft.
342 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020 Early this morning a cold front, currently just east of Bismarck, was moving east across North Dakota. An upper-level ridge will build over the northern Plains Sunday as a longwave trough approaches from the west. A cold front should arrive in the west Sunday evening.
125 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2020 Active westerly flow will persist through most of the period as mean upper troughing continues over the NE Pac.
H5 s/w trough axis is currently shifting east across the CWA. A cold front will approach Sunday as another s/w amplification occurs with the mean upper trof. There may be some morning showers to contend with, otherwise, the main forcing will arrive later in the day and early evening with the s/w trof axis and associated surface front.
341 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020 A weak cold front will push southward into the southern plains through tonight. Temperatures will be several degrees cooler by Sunday in the wake of the front, with highs in the lower to mid 90s. With upslope flow across western Kansas and northwesterly mid and upper level flow, thunderstorms may develop on the high terrain and move into far western Kansas Sunday night.
Additional convection is developing closer to the trough axis, where stretching deformation forcings is the primary actor.
A weak cold front will bring scattered showers mainly Saturday night into Sunday.
Models prog the center of an upper level high pressure currently over NM to move east today with S TX expected to be very hot once again. Dewpoints are progged to be a tad lower, but with the higher ambient temps, heat indices will once again reach 110 to 114. As the high pressure center moves over W TX and the TX Panhandle Sunday, max temps across S TX are expected to be even hotter. This should lead to min temps also being a couple of degrees cooler, but still humid. With the upper high shifting east, the surface gradient across S TX will be more relaxed, thus lighter winds for today through Sunday.
For the start of the work week, the heat will be slightly suppressed as low-level flow is still mainly influenced from a relatively cooler and drier airmass that moved into the region over the weekend. So while temperatures may climb to around 90, dew points will still be in the low to mid 60s.
This will push the higher moisture into the Florida Big Bend and eastward. With suppressed convection, temperatures are expected to be warmer than today with mid to upper 90s across most of the area.
A cold front will bring breezy winds late Saturday and throughout Sunday. Temperatures on Sunday will be almost 15 degrees cooler. Transient ridging has moved over our area this evening bringing light winds and clear skies. This ridging will certainly help goose up daytime temperatures on Saturday where Spokane International Airport could see it's first 90 degree reading of 2020. Ridging won't last long as an upper level trough brings in a strong cold front Saturday afternoon/evening. Cooler, though still breeze weather is on tap for Sunday. Wilson 06Z TAFS: A robust cold front will move through all TAF sites Saturday afternoon/evening bringing gusty westerly winds. No precipitation is expected with the cold front and ceilings will stay in VFR territory.
However, it appears the outflow boundary from the lead convective cluster will move south of the I-70 corridor of central Kansas to perhaps as far south as the highway 50 corridor before dawn. In the absence of additional convective development further south into Kansas this morning, the effective surface cold front should set up from south central into east central Kansas during the day.
Otherwise, expect dry weather for the remainder of the day with temperatures only slightly cooler after the passage of a cold front overnight.
326 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020 A ridge remains anchored across the Southwest with a trough across the east coast, keeping NW flow aloft in place. Daytime highs will reach the upper 80s to the lower 90s. A cold front moving in Sunday night will keep a few showers and thunderstorms around a little bit longer, but quickly diminish as drier air filters in.
Storms will taper off overnight as a weak cold front moves through. Cooler temperatures will follow for the weekend. Cold front is pushing across the area this evening with some showers and thunderstorms along and in advance of the front. Will update the forecast to better handle pops this evening as the cold front pushes across the area. Models show strong upper level ridge building into the region although there are some model differences with how fast heights rise and the amplitude of the ridge.
Based on available boundaries (synoptic-scale cold front, lee-side surface trof, OFB's), synoptic-scale set up with a notable s/w moving out of Montana, and a formidable upper jet streak in play (underneath the left exit region on an upper level 100+ knot speed max), this evening into the overnight certainly looks like a candidate for some significant severe weather (likely discrete very large hail producing supercells that eventually turn into prolific wind producers). The mid-level s/w trof generating tonight's convective activity is still progged to take a jog southeastward on Saturday and pass over/near the northeast corner of SoDak/wc Minn, bringing additional chances for less-impressive looking convection on Saturday mainly east of the James River valley over into western MN. Aloft, ridging builds in as a warming air mass moves into the western CWA.
328 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 In the wake of yesterday's frontal passage, seeing a slightly cooler and drier airmass in place, with temperatures already falling below yesterday morning's lows, into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Precipitation chances will then begin to increase from northwest to southeast into the evening and overnight hours as subtle disturbances move through the eastern CONUS trough ahead of an approaching system.
This airmass will also be slightly cooler, making conditions feel more comfortable.
The tail end of this trough could help initiate showers and thunderstorms over Yellowstone and the far northern end of the Absarokas this afternoon and evening. As the ridge over the southwestern CONUS refuses to budge, the hot and dry weekend will continue on Sunday.
The lower dew points may allow temperatures in a few locations such as Nashville reach as high as 94 or 95.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): Dry weather with limited cloud cover will continue to prevail during the period as a result of a broad 500 mb dome of high pressure dominating over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.
H5 s/w trough axis is currently shifting east across the CWA. Models show strong upper level ridge building into the region although there are some model differences with how fast heights rise and the amplitude of the ridge.
The upper level ridge centered over NM and AZ, and overall pattern will change very little today. Very dry, subsident air can be seen moving into the area around the upper level ridge.
On the larger scale upper low over northern ND slowly moving northeast with its own associated cluster of storms. Next anomalous upper low moving onshore over southern BC, while an equally impressive upper ridge builds across the Great Basin and southern Rockies with 40-80m height rises noted across the west. upper ridging briefly builds into the High Plains as the next upper low pushes onshore. In response to lowering heights across the northern Rockies, return flow will set up across the High Plains bringing higher theta-e air into the Panhandle region and will at least allow for some destabilization by late afternoon although short range models differ on the handling of this.
Not expecting any restrictions to ceilings or visibility as high pressure at the surface and aloft dominates the region. Area will remain between strong high pressure aloft centered over the four corners area, and a persistent low pressure trof over the eastern CONUS. A warming subsident northerly flow will thus remain, while surface dewpoints will trend on the high side.
Expect daytime radiational heating getting most areas near normal in the low to mid 90s for highs this afternoon. Cooler morning temperatures are anticipated Sunday as a result of the drier dew points, but the clear skies will promote ample daytime warming, with highs generally 1 to 4 degrees above normal today and Sunday. Even with highs in the mid to upper 90s over middle Georgia, the lower humidity will mitigate any Heat Advisory concerns.
Area will remain between strong high pressure aloft centered over the four corners area, and a persistent low pressure trof over the eastern CONUS. A warming subsident northerly flow will thus remain, while surface dewpoints will trend on the high side.
dry conditions are expected to prevail as weak ridging aloft begins to amplify across the area. Dry weather is expected to round out the weekend as high pressure continues aloft across the region.
While the low-level cyclonic circulation is now east of the CWA, a few lagging deformation showers will persist for a few more hours before drier conditions are realized area-wide. Winds aloft align from the W/NW today on the periphery of an inbound ridge axis. Outdoor conditions will feel more comfortable given a 3-5 C drop in 850 mb temperatures this afternoon and dewpoints in the low-mid 60s paired with a light breeze. Overnight lows return to normal, in the low 60s with partly clear skies. While the disturbance primarily remains south of the Michigan border, there may still be enough PVA to facilitate some lift as the wave flattens and pivots into the ambient downstream synoptic trough fusing with what remains of Tropical Depression Fay. 00 inch mark with moisture convergence ahead of a slowly southward propagating cold front.
520 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2020 Sunny skies will allow for warmer conditions across much of the state today. A cold front pushing across the state on Sunday will bring a cool down for central and western Montana.
No severe weather is expected with this system as the high-res models show that MLCAPE will be low (around 500 J/kg) as this system moves through. Sunday, the Northland should be under the influence of an upper level ridge for a quiet weather day.
942 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 An exiting low pressure system will bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to portions of the region today. Morning Update: Lower the high temperature near the I-80 region. Previous Discussion: A low pressure system over Lake Erie will swing northeast today, accompanied by a 500mb trough axis and a weakening frontal boundary. Support for lift from the trough and front will bring scattered to numerous rain showers and a few thunderstorms today, with the best coverage to the north and east of Pittsburgh where better upper divergence is indicated. Precipitation will end during the evening hours as the trough and front pull off to the east, with a good portion of the overnight hours remaining dry.
404 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020 Chances for thunderstorms will increase this afternoon into evening and continue overnight as an upper level disturbance and cold front move into the area. Temperatures will be slightly above normal today with highs in the upper 80s, cooling slightly into the low to mid 80s Sunday behind the cold front. Temperatures should be quite warm today, generally reaching the upper 80s, then cooler air behind the cold front should result in mid 80s and some lower 80s Sunday.