Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1035 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 The low-level ridge axis remains across South Florida, maintaining gentle to moderate, east to southeast breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. Highs will once again reach the lower 90s under mostly sunny skies. A western Atlantic ridge axis stretching west across south- central Florida will maintain gentle to moderate easterly breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys through tonight.
402 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020 Upper ridging centered over New Mexico to the west, with the Bermuda high to the east. PoPs should be a bit lower than today, with temperatures a bit warmer.
342 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2020 Cold front has pushed through northern and central WY overnight and will bank along the continental divide by late this morning. Cooler high temps today along and east of the divide.
The primary forecast concern will be thunderstorm potential associated with a cold front moving through the area this afternoon and evening. The cold front moves into northeast NE by 18z, then south of the area by about midnight tonight. Highs should reach 87 to 90, with dewpoints still in the lower 70s producing heat index values well into the middle to upper 90s. Behind the cold front, quite pleasant weather is expected for the remainder of the weekend. High temperatures Saturday only in the lower 80s, and dewpoints significantly down in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
341 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2020 Precipitation associated with a cold front over southeast Montana will continue eastward with a few lingering showers possible in the morning along the Montana/North Dakota border. Northwesterly flow behind the front on Friday will quickly transition to a ridge of high pressure over the western half of the US this weekend. High temperatures will generally be in the 80s this weekend and gradually increase well into the 90s through the first half of the week as the ridge amplifies.
952 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020 Cold front is beginning to work into the western portion of the forecast area, noted by the wind shift to the northwest from the south at K9V9 and points westward. We're beginning to see a bit of cloud cover develop as the low-lvl jet increases. Convective chances later today will be driven by an advancing cold front moving southeast by the mid-day hours. The area with the highest potential for development will be in SW Minnesota where PVA is maximized. Temperatures fall into the lower 50s by daybreak Saturday.
Therefore the highest PoPs today will remain over inland portions of Southwest Florida, though with a slightly earlier timing compared to normal as the sea breeze collisions should be earlier as well.
North to northwest flow aloft persists across the region due to the anomalous mid to upper level ridge centered over the southwest CONUS. 850 hPa temperatures will range in the lower 20s Celsius this afternoon; resulting in another hot day. 850 hPa temperatures are progged to be in the lower to mid 20s Celsius.
The cold front is expected to move out of our eastern CWA border by early Saturday morning.
926 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 High pressure will control our weather through Saturday keeping central New York and northeast Pennsylvania generally dry and temperatures near normal.
647 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 With the Bermuda high offshore and a persistent upper level trough in the Lower Mississippi Valley, a moist and unstable air mass will remain across the area into this weekend. Today: Main upper trough axis will still be off to the west of the area through the day. Overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s. Moisture will remain anomalously high once again Saturday as the upper trough approaches from the west, with its axis over the southern Appalachians.
Fair flying conditions for all of Deep South Texas and the three Rio Grande Valley airports as high pressure remains in control. /issued 310 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): Persistence is the best forecast with latest model suite insisting that the position of the 500mb subtropical ridge remains anchored over Arizona extending well into Texas.
Recent water vapor imagery showing an upper trough working its way east across the northern Rockies with an attendant cold front pushing southeast into northern Wyoming. A weak upper wave was moving southeast across southeast Kansas around the periphery of the upper high over the southern Rockies and in concert with mid-level moisture and isentropic lift, scattered convection has blossomed over eastern Oklahoma. Weak surface ridging over Kansas has kept winds light under clear skies creating some concern for radiation fog, however guidance is consistent with enough boundary layer wind for somewhat mixy conditions with crossover temps likely not being met or breached by much.
An upper trough extends from the Great Lakes into the Mid-South this morning. Temps are generally in the lower to mid 70s across the Mid-South. The 500 mb trough axis will gradually shift east today with afternoon convection most prevalent east of the MS River and especially toward the TN River. Convection will diminish this evening with loss of heating and lows overnight will remain mild, in the lower 70s. The 500 mb trough axis will shift east along with most of the rain chances. Expect increasing amounts of sunshine as well which will help temps climb back into the lower 90s across western sections including the Memphis Metro.
641 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 High pressure will control our weather through Saturday keeping central New York and northeast Pennsylvania generally dry and temperatures near normal.
Tranquil boating conditions will continue over the Gulf waters the remainder of today as high pressure remains in control with light winds, slight seas, and an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast during the afternoon.
We're beginning to see a bit of cloud cover develop as the low-lvl jet increases. Convective chances later today will be driven by an advancing cold front moving southeast by the mid-day hours. The area with the highest potential for development will be in SW Minnesota where PVA is maximized. Temperatures fall into the lower 50s by daybreak Saturday.
450 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020 (Today and Tonight) Very hot and dry conditions will continue across West Central Texas again today, as strong upper ridging remains in place. The low level thermal ridge will be a bit stronger today, so temperatures this afternoon will be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday.
MOS guidance suggests significantly cooler temps behind the front for this afternoon with highs near 90 at PVW. While temps may be a few degrees cooler, cooling on the order of 10+ degrees doesn't seem extremely likely. Even highs yesterday behind the front in the northern Texas Panhandle were much warmer. The one thing that could keep highs on the cooler side would be convection. Convection is possible this afternoon into the evening as a weakness rotates around the upper high that is currently to our west. The current upper level ridge over New Mexico will be centered over Arizona on Saturday and will then scoot to the north this weekend to the Great Basin.
Temperatures will be warmer today compared to yesterday, but readings should continue to be around 5 degrees below normal for this time of year. The ridge of high pressure is still on track to build over the western part of the United States this weekend.
/issued 450 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020/ (Today and Tonight) Very hot and dry conditions will continue across West Central Texas again today, as strong upper ridging remains in place. The low level thermal ridge will be a bit stronger today, so temperatures this afternoon will be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday.
/issued 339 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020/ An upper level high continues to exert its influence as sunny skies and subsidence create another day of oppressive heat. Today will be the hottest day of the week with temperatures exceeding 100 degrees across all but the highest elevations in the CWA; 105 will be exceeded across the Permian Basin and southeastern New Mexico so a Heat Advisory continues. Tomorrow may be a little cooler, though still quite hot, as the high and subsidence weakens and temperatures drop a few degrees.
724 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 Dry and pleasant conditions with near seasonable temperatures will be the rule the next several days as high pressure dominates.
A cold front will dive south from the Nrn Plains to begin the weekend. Cooler air will not arrive during the short term period.
654 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 A weak mid level low pressure system will track across the region today into Saturday.
A midlevel trough is shifting across the Mississippi River and will likely be oriented along the Tennessee River/Alabama State line this evening. An upper trough extends from the Great Lakes into the Mid-South this morning. Temps are generally in the lower to mid 70s across the Mid-South. The 500 mb trough axis will gradually shift east today with afternoon convection most prevalent east of the MS River and especially toward the TN River. Convection will diminish this evening with loss of heating and lows overnight will remain mild, in the lower 70s. The 500 mb trough axis will shift east along with most of the rain chances. Expect increasing amounts of sunshine as well which will help temps climb back into the lower 90s across western sections including the Memphis Metro.
With heights and mid level temps a little cooler today, look for more widespread shower and tstm coverage by this afternoon.
A prefrontal trof that passed through earlier has triggered a weak line of a few storms in the southeast CWA and into Omaha's CWA. The prefrontal trof may have aided in eroding the cap slightly which would then aid in the development of convection. Kept highs pretty consistent with the previous forecast, with mild lows tonight in the 50s and 60s and more seasonable highs tomorrow in the lower to mid 80s. Upper level ridging amplifies over the western CONUS as the center of the upper level high back tracks to the northwest. With this pronounced ridge in the west and broad troughing in the east, we end up sandwiched between the two. Even though this means we would be subjected to any ridge running short waves, the likelihood looks slim at this point.
One concern is how this region of rain cooled recovers this afternoon before the main line of convection initiates off the approaching cold front. There is a good consensus between the high resolution convective allowing models (CAMs) to have the convection fire off the cold front oriented north to south across Minnesota nearly aligned with I- 35. A pretty static large scale flow pattern with ridging over western North America giving way to northwest flow and troughing in the east.
Strong area of high pressure will expand across most of the western U.
/EC/ AS steep upper ridging continues to build over the western US, an upper level flow pattern will remain over the MS River Valley as a result.
By early this evening, the main upper trough will be east of the area, as a weakening upper level ridge moves southeast into the area. The deeper moisture will move out as the trough moves east, so any lingering showers and thunderstorms during the evening hours will be in our far eastern sections. Saturday still looks rather dry with weak high pressure building in, despite the small chances the NBM continues to paint in our eastern counties.
Hot and humid conditions will persist into Saturday for much of the area ahead of a cold front, which will move into northeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas Saturday afternoon.
Will start the near term period with a weakness in the geo-potential height aloft characterized by a broad synoptic scale trough draped from the OH River Valley to the central Gulf coast. Embedded in the mean northwesterly flow aloft between the trough and the nose of a deep layer ridge over TX, satellite shows a notable area of cold cloud tops/enhanced lightning dropping southeast into the MS Valley of eastern AR/northwest MS. To aid in ascent is the presence of a broad surface pressure trough along the I-65 corridor.
The second line further north toward Norfolk was associated with the cold front, and consisted of more surface based convection. This Evening & Tonight: We will continue to monitor the potential for severe weather with a cold frontal passage this afternoon and evening. Bulk shear profiles meanwhile should remain sufficient for a couple supercells (25 to 35 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear), but lacking in the lowest 1-3 km.
1244 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020 Cold front is beginning to work into the western portion of the forecast area, noted by the wind shift to the northwest from the south at K9V9 and points westward. We're beginning to see a bit of cloud cover develop as the low-lvl jet increases. Convective chances later today will be driven by an advancing cold front moving southeast by the mid-day hours. The area with the highest potential for development will be in SW Minnesota where PVA is maximized. Temperatures fall into the lower 50s by daybreak Saturday.
Synoptic forcing for ascent and moisture content are both too minimal in Pennsylvania this evening, but in OH and WV isolated thunderstorms are possible, though unlikely, where moisture is plentiful and thus level of free convection is attainable with developing low pressure in the vicinity. Aforementioned low pressure that is propagating eastward and is supported by jet circulation will provide broad support for ascent across the area early Saturday, with mostly cloudy skies and light precipitation expected for Pittsburgh and south throughout Saturday. As the center of low pressure passes to the South, WV and southern PA counties have the most potential to pick up quite a bit of rain, with some spots seeing an inch or more.
Have removed mention of showers/storms from the forecast this afternoon with the exception of isolated coverage in the ridges.
At the surface, low pressure with an unseasonably strong isobaric gradient is analyzed near the intersection of the Dakotas and Minnesota borders. Given the presence of around 500-1000 J/kg SBCAPE, along with lower freezing levels and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles, a few stronger storms may produce small hail and gusty winds. Broad synoptic scale surface ridging will build across the region tonight and Saturday as flow aloft remains northwest.
The low-level ridge axis stretches west across South Florida. Temperatures are in the lower 90s under mostly sunny skies. The low-level ridge axis will sag southward tonight and Saturday. Thereafter, a mid-upper level trough will scour lower heights out across the Gulf of Mexico. We have retained the higher than normal rain chances for days six and seven, and the digital grids indicate breezy southeasterlies taking over the extended. A western Atlantic ridge axis stretching west across south- central Florida will maintain gentle to moderate easterly breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys through tonight.
Up in northeast South Dakota over into west central Minnesota, skies are partly to mostly cloudy while winds continue to switch around to the northwest behind a cold frontal passage positioned roughly from Lake City to Carpenter. At that point, the severe weather (and tornado) threat transitions east of the CWA as well, and just dealing with the mixing out of post-cold frontal stratus/strato-cu for the rest of daylight hours.
134 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2020 Upper trough axis continues to shift eastward with convection ongoing across the Upper Midwest. Cooler air has settled into the forecast area this afternoon behind cold front. Warm air advection overnight will bring warmer air to the region for the weekend. Upstream, upper ridge axis will slowly spread eastward resulting in warmer and drier weather for the Northern Plains through at least the first half of the week. Longer range ensembles hint at the continued influence of upper level ridging across the western half of the country.
306 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020 Warm front extended from southern MN to eastern MO with a cold front from eastern SD to nw KS. Dewpoints were pushing into the lower to mid 70s west of the warm front, as indicated by plenty of cumulus seen on visible satellite loops.
136 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 High pressure will control our weather through Saturday keeping central New York and northeast Pennsylvania generally dry and temperatures near normal.
The high retrogrades on Saturday with the center moving over southern Nevada late in the day.
Continued Increased Risk of Flash Flooding this Afternoon into Upper level PVA east of the slow progression trough and diurnal destabilization will aid widespread/numerous convection this afternoon into evening, and such upper level forcing will continue for scattered shower/storm potential into overnight as well. While WPC has Marginal/Slight Risk for Excessive Rain across parts of north GA, the high 2 plus inch PWATs and tropical airmass spans the entire CWA so localized heavy rain and flooding threat from very efficient precip could occur anywhere.
249 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020 The weather across the area today is dominated by a warm and muggy airmass characterized by temperatures in the upper 80s and dewpoints in the lower 70s. Today should be the last day of real summery type conditions across the area for at least a few days, due to a cold frontal boundary, which will move into and through the area over the next 24 hours.
128 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 Upper trough continues to slowly amplify weak cyclogenesis across the lower TN Valley this morning which is promoting weak moisture advection northward across the southern Valley/Plateau, all beneath synoptic lift consequent of 300mb jet divergence. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 86 70 90 69 / 60 50 10 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 84 69 87 69 / 60 70 10 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 71 84 68 88 67 / 60 60 10 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 81 65 83 64 / 40 80 30 20 10.
230 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020 A cold front will push across the state on Saturday, bringing a chance for scattered thunderstorms.
301 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020 Pesky upper trof finally departs the region tonight. Ongoing sct convection, mainly over western KY/far southern IL should diminish with setting of the sun as the trof shifts east.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): 500 mb high pressure centered over the Desert Southwest will continue to be extended over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the period. After holding at near to below normal levels in the wake of Hurricane Hanna, temperatures are beginning to creep into above normal levels due to the presence of the 500 mb ridge and the steady drying of previously-soaked and flooded soils from Hanna rains.
Hot and dry conditions will continue through the short term as the mid/upper level high pressure remains stationed over the Southwestern United States.
1225 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2020 Cold front has pushed through northern and central WY overnight and will bank along the continental divide by late this morning. Cooler high temps today along and east of the divide.
Quiet forecast for the next 36 hours as high pressure builds over the region. borsum Combination of a strong trough moving through E MT on water vapor imagery and a coupled jet, produced bowing segments of thunderstorms across northern areas overnight. Axis of the trough was progged to be right along the MT/Dakotas border at 12Z and jet divergence will be in the Dakotas. Saturday will be a little warmer under a continued flat NW flow.
1233 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 High pressure will control our weather through Saturday keeping central New York and northeast Pennsylvania generally dry and temperatures near normal.
Showers will decrease in coverage after sunset tonight and push east overnight tonight as the upper level trough axis swings across the Tennessee Valley.
257 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 A trough of low pressure will persist inland, while high pressure remains over the Atlantic through Saturday.
253 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020 The weather across the area today is dominated by a warm and muggy airmass characterized by temperatures in the upper 80s and dewpoints in the lower 70s. Today should be the last day of real summery type conditions across the area for at least a few days, due to a cold frontal boundary, which will move into and through the area over the next 24 hours.
VFR conditions and light winds to prevail in ridging/high pressure environment.
124 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 Dry and seasonable weather will persist into the weekend with high pressure in control of the region.
We'll see temperatures tomorrow a few degrees cooler than today's scorchers. The upper ridge of high pressure responsible for the resent string of very hot days is forecast to retrograde west to the Four Corners/ Great Basin region while a mean trough develops along the Mississippi River valley.
301 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 High pressure will keep in dry weather tonight with only a slight chance for some isolated showers Saturday.
VFR will continue to be the rule at the aerodromes courtesy of high pressure at the surface and in the middle layers of the atmosphere. Fair flying conditions for all of Deep South Texas and the three Rio Grande Valley airports as high pressure remains in control. /issued 310 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): Persistence is the best forecast with latest model suite insisting that the position of the 500mb subtropical ridge remains anchored over Arizona extending well into Texas.
For Saturday the upper ridge begins to retrograde further to the west. With the thermal ridge not quiet as strong across the area temperatures should be at least a few degrees 'cooler' compared to today.
A cold front extended to the southwest, and this will be the main focus for surface-based convection. High pressure will build across the region in the wake if this cold front. That will lead to clear skies with cooler temperatures and lower humidity values.
Low pressure lifting off to the northeast left a westerly flow and lingering trough just north of forecast area. Shwrs and tstms located along the trough running from west to east just north of area, should begin to spread southward along outflow from storms into this evening and will continue to see convection aligned with sea breeze closer to the Cape Fear coast. Winds will start picking up through Sat into Sat night as mid to upper trough pushes eastward and front reaches into the Carolinas.
330 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020 Little change in the forecast to note as models remain consistent in advecting an upper trough eastward along the Canadian border into the Great Lakes sending an attendant cold front southward through Missouri on Saturday.
After sunrise, we will see the low clouds/fog dissipate once again once the boundary layer mixes out. This wave will continue east today and force a cold front south into central and southwest Kansas later this afternoon and evening. The cold front moves to the south of the area by Saturday morning. Another weak disturbance moves around the northern periphery of the upper level high pressure system over the western states and out over western Kansas during the day Saturday with showers and thunderstorms develop again during the day. Through the next several days, the upper ridge over the western states builds even more with meridional flow aloft developing over the central High Plains. This pattern will keep temperatures a little cooler than normal in the 80s with numerous opportunities for showers and thunderstorms across the region.
242 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020 Clusters of thunderstorms tied closely to the slowly moving mid-upper trough axis (with weak surface reflection) and daytime heating should diminish early this evening. Much of the central and western part of the forecast area may be completely dry on Saturday in the wake of the trough passage.