Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Aloft an flat upper level ridge is projected to produce enough subsidence to keep moisture pooled in the lower levels.
A period of active weather is forecast for this weekend as a low pressure system brings cooler temperatures, rain, and some high elevation snow to northern Arizona.
537 AM CST Sat Feb 11 2017 Update for 12z TAFS Latest satellite image depicts the low clouds south of POF to Madisonville line.
Good chances of sea fog thru early part of the week with the warm/moist airmass flowing over the cooler shelf waters.
Otherwise, gusty southwest winds will persist today ahead of strong cold front, which is expected to push south to near a MLC/FSM line by the end of the TAF period (12Z Sunday). A cold front will move through the region Tonight and into Sunday putting an end to the record breaking heat.
517 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2017 Heights are falling across the Central Plains as the broad upper level ridge lurks eastward.
In fact, a broader look across the lower Ohio/Mississippi river valleys show hardly any radar echoes. An early morning surface analysis showed low pressure across the Oklahoma panhandle with strong southerly to southwesterly flow across the southern Plains into the lower Ohio Valley. Ahead of it, 850 mb moisture transport and isentropic lift will overcome the lower Ohio Valley. It will be quite warm with highs forecast to reach the low to mid 60s despite the increased cloud cover. 00z guidance continued the trend of a faster arrival of the cold front for Sunday, and by sunrise it's expected to be right along the Ohio River. It will also usher in cooler temperatures, and expect highs in the low 60s to occur early in the morning, then fall into the 50s and upper 40s by late afternoon under brisk northwest winds.
Cloud cover and obscured terrain will decrease throughout the day as high pressure builds into north central Idaho and western Montana. One such band has been wavering between Stevensville and Florence so there may be light accumulations on the Highway 93. High pressure will take hold of the region by tonight so showers will come to an end during the day and valley inversions will return for tonight.
High pressure over the area will produce calm winds and clear skies tonight, so expect a chance for shallow fog.
637 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2017 High pressure will build across the region through the weekend.
Lower to mid level high pressure is centered over Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A short wave trough will head eastward out of the Wyoming Front Range today, crossing the Great Lakes and New England through Sunday.
However, best moisture confined to the lowest levels, with a 3C degree cap around 85H or 5500 feet. Forecast time-height sections/soundings indicate the low clouds should continue through today with only a slow rise in ceilings. Other primary issue will be the strong srly winds thanks to a tighter pressure gradient with low pressure passing the Plains as well as higher winds off the sfc mixing down. High pressure remains over the Atlantic and Northeast Gulf this morning while low pressure is moving across the Central Plains. This pattern will continue through today and into Sunday, and with just enough lift with the low pressure over the plains and the warm and moist flow, a few isolated showers will be possible away from the coast.
Colder and drier today through Sunday under northwest flow aloft behind exiting upper trough. Temperature inversion will form in the Lower Treasure Valley with Sunday's highs about 3 degs lower than today.
Record breaking heat continues to be an absolute certainty today ahead of the approaching cold front. Otherwise, gusty southwest winds will persist today ahead of strong cold front, which is expected to push south to near a MLC/FSM line by the end of the TAF period (12Z Sunday). A cold front will move through the region Tonight and into Sunday putting an end to the record breaking heat.
735 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2017 Low pressure will bring rain and warm temperatures for the weekend. Low pressure will bring increasing moisture in southwest flow today, with rain showers developing late afternoon and continuing overnight. Cold front on backside of system will change rain showers to snow showers Sunday night.
Late morning winds should mix westerlies to the surface with dry SSW surface winds helping to dissipate the low clouds for the afternoon/evening. An upper level trough moving east across the northern States will force a cold front into South Central Texas while an upper level low drops southeast along the California Coast to Baja California Norte.
/NF/ Today and Tonight: A broad ridge of high pressure remains in place over much of the CONUS today, with a deepening trough of low pressure noted over the West Coast on satellite imagery this morning. At the surface, high pressure is anchored near Bermuda, and a low pressure center was noted over the High Plains.
However, temps reaching near or just above 80 degrees are expected, as strong WAA in sw sfc flow combined with upper ridging passing ovhd later today overcomes the influence of the clouds. Cold front will make its way through the region Sunday despite ridging aloft, which will usher a much cooler airmass into the region. A few shwrs/isold tstms may affect the region along the front, but coverage/intensity expected to remain on the low end of the scale.
Meanwhile, a ridge of high pressure is centered over Southern Georgia and Florida. Southerly winds on the back side of high pressure is advecting low level moisture up into the Lower Mississippi Valley, resulting in some stratus across much of Arkansas early this morning. As of 4 am CST, temperatures across Arkansas are predominantly in the lower to middle 60s across most areas.
High pressure will return for much of the upcoming week.
An upper level trough moving east across the northern States will force a cold front into South Central Texas while an upper level low drops southeast along the California Coast to Baja California Norte.
but cooler day. As this cooler airmass then makes its way across the local area late in the day. Cooler air will then continue to infiltrate the local area late tonight into Sunday. While expecting dry conditions through the end of the weekend, that disturbance to the northeast does push a cold front south through the region, dropping highs for Sunday back into the mid 40s (still above normal for this time of year).
/issued 340 AM CST Sat Feb 11 2017/ Mid level ridging will continue to build over the Mid South today as strong low level southerly flow advects low level moisture into the region. Temperatures will remain warm tonight as well with lows only dropping into the lower to middle 60s. This will push a strong cold front across the Mid South through the day.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 57 72 37 / 30 30 50 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 56 70 34 / 30 30 50 20 Oak Ridge, TN 59 55 70 34 / 30 30 50 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 50 69 31 / 30 30 50 20.
559 AM CST Sat Feb 11 2017 Cooler air will continue to advect across the local area today with 850 mb temps dropping around 10C lower across the region than yesterday. but cooler day. As this cooler airmass then makes its way across the local area late in the day. Cooler air will then continue to infiltrate the local area late tonight into Sunday. While expecting dry conditions through the end of the weekend, that disturbance to the northeast does push a cold front south through the region, dropping highs for Sunday back into the mid 40s (still above normal for this time of year).
759 AM MST Sat Feb 11 2017 Cold front continues to drop south this morning, currently sitting just north of the Bookcliffs north of Interstate 70. Both models slowly slide a cold front, which is currently located over northwestern Colorado, south across the area today. This cold front will support a possibility of rain in the valleys and mountain snows through Sunday. The timing of the cold front and associated cold air will be critical for snow accumulations today. The current satellite water vapor image is showing a low pressure system centered over Central California with plenty of moisture streaming into our forecast area. A broad ridge of high pressure is also evident over the Central CONUS.
654 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2017 Aviation Expect showers to develop near and south in Interstate 96 by this evening in response to a cold front moving southward through the area from northern Michigan. The overrunning north of that systems warm front will bring rain to areas south of Interstate 96 overnight into Sunday morning.
A cold front will move south across the terminals Sunday morning, The front will affect the KABI terminal around 11Z, with gusty north winds developing. A strong thermal ridge (850 mb temps around 23C) will reside over the area today, with adiabatic compression contributing to hot temperatures by this afternoon. Aforementioned cold front will enter the Big Country just after midnight is expected to reach a San Angelo to Brownwood line by daybreak Sunday.
Elsewhere expect a few mountain showers and cooler conditions today.
One such band has been wavering between Stevensville and Florence so there may be light accumulations on the Highway 93. High pressure will take hold of the region by tonight so showers will come to an end during the day and valley inversions will return for tonight.
321 AM MST Sat Feb 11 2017 Water vapor imagery shows a trough across the western CONUS with 165kt jet streak over the northern plains. a cold front is crossing eastern MT and approaching the CWA. The highest elevations are seeing snowfall with some minor accumulations near O'neil Pass. Return flow sets up across the region Sunday afternoon/evening with warmer air working its way back into the CWA. Strong upper ridging can be expected for much of the work week.
942 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2017 High pressure will remain centered off the coast through Sunday. A cold front with limited moisture will move across the area Sunday night.
A strong thermal ridge (850 mb temps around 23C) will reside over the area today, with adiabatic compression contributing to hot temperatures by this afternoon. Aforementioned cold front will enter the Big Country just after midnight is expected to reach a San Angelo to Brownwood line by daybreak Sunday.
952 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2017 High pressure will build across the region through the weekend.
Both models slowly slide a cold front, which is currently located over northwestern Colorado, south across the area today. This cold front will support a possibility of rain in the valleys and mountain snows through Sunday. The timing of the cold front and associated cold air will be critical for snow accumulations today. The current satellite water vapor image is showing a low pressure system centered over Central California with plenty of moisture streaming into our forecast area. A broad ridge of high pressure is also evident over the Central CONUS.
935 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2017 Low pressure will bring rain and warm temperatures for the weekend. Low pressure will bring increasing moisture in southwest flow today, with rain showers developing late afternoon and continuing overnight. Cold front on backside of system will change rain showers to snow showers Sunday night.
Areas of freezing fog across northern Nevada this morning, while snow showers linger across central Nevada through this afternoon.
Today look for lingering isolated showers and thunderstorms with light high mountain snow mainly over the Central mountains and the Upper Snake Highlands from an exiting upper level low system.
416 AM MDT MON SEP 5 2016 Northern stream upper trough across ID/Wrn MT will eject to the northeast today while more energy drops into the mean trof across the western U. however as the upper trof edges eastward tonight. approaching trof out west may spread isolated showers and embedded thunderstorms into the southwest mountains overnight. Temperatures should be mild again for most areas with lee troffing supporting enhanced south/southwesterly downslope winds for the southeast plains.
322 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2016 Little change in the weather from yesterday as the region remains positioned between western troughing and an upper level ridge centered across the lower Mississippi River Valley.
A upper level trough extending from the northern Rockies south through the Great Basin will move slowly east across the region during the first half of the week.
Warmer temperatures and higher humidities can be expected today with surface/low level winds becoming southerly as the surface/850 ridge shifts east of the region. GKS Warmer and more humid Summer-like conditions can be expected on Tuesday due to continued southerly surface winds along with a mid- upper level ridge building into southeast MO and southern IL.
307 AM EDT Mon Sep 5 2016 High pressure will provide mostly dry weather and a warming trend through midweek. Some patchy valley fog will be seen in the cooler valleys early on today. As the 500 mb trough axis continues its slow march south, Tuesday will again feature plenty of sunshine and even warmer temperatures as 850 mb temps nudge upward. A few high clouds may spill over the ridge starting during the afternoon and continuing during the night.
634 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2016 Fair weather expected to continue through this week, as dry high pressure dominates. Upper and surface circulations, associated with post tropical storm Hermine, will remain offshore the Mid Atlantic and NE US coast, while upper high pressure will remain centered to our west, providing a continued dry northerly flow aloft.
403 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2016 Short Term (Today - Tuesday night): The high pressure which brought us several days of near perfect weather is far enough east of us that we'll lose its influence today. The transition to warmer and more humid conditions will occur today although the humidity levels will be tolerable this morning.
344 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2016 Lower 60 dewpoints and steady SE winds have held sfc temps into the lower to middle 60s. Sfc convergence and initially the best 850mb WV transport highlight Minnesota and Wisconsin for the higher likelihood of thunderstorms.
536 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2016 A blocking ridge aloft will keep central Pennsylvania dry and unseasonably warm, with slowly increasing humidity as the week progresses. High temps will be perhaps 2-4 deg warmer in most areas than today. In the mean time, the upper ridge will keep us fair through midweek before shower chances begin to ramp up along with an increase in the humidity.
438 AM MDT MON SEP 5 2016 Water vapor shows deep upper trof over the wrn conus with main low over swrn MT. Additional shra/tsra development expected this aftn as atmos destabilizes and more energy aloft rotates around the main upper low over MT.
Clear skies across the region early this morning as the weekend trough departs further to the east. Warming returns to the region today as ridging from the eastern Pacific extends into NorCal and mostly light northerly flow develops. The last "little bit" of energy will work southeastward today on the back side of the exiting trough. Heights aloft and thickness rise through mid-week as the ridge builds, and with generally light northerly surface flow, temperatures will continue to warm.
335 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2016 An upper ridge centered over the SE US stretches westward into NM while an upper trough extends from the Canadian border down across the Intermountain West to Mexico. The trough will slowly move east and eventually flatten out the ridge by late in the week.
Dry weather and cooler conditions will persist today before temperatures return closer to normal by midweek.
239 AM PDT MON SEP 5 2016 Cooler air that has moved into northeast California and western Nevada behind a cold front will bring below average afternoon temperatures again today. Freezing temperatures are likely for Sierra valleys through Tuesday morning, with spotty frost for colder western Nevada valleys. Warmer conditions will return for the second half of the week.
526 AM EDT Mon Sep 5 2016 High pressure will provide mostly dry weather and a warming trend through midweek. Some patchy valley fog will be seen in the cooler valleys early on today. As the 500 mb trough axis continues its slow march south, Tuesday will again feature plenty of sunshine and even warmer temperatures as 850 mb temps nudge upward. A few high clouds may spill over the ridge starting during the afternoon and continuing during the night.
High temperatures likely a bit warmer today with deep layer air drying. Another degree or so warmer on Tuesday as well.
136 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2016 Fair weather expected to continue through this week, as dry high pressure dominates. Upper and surface circulations, associated with post tropical storm Hermine, will remain offshore the Mid Atlantic and NE US coast, while upper high pressure will remain centered to our west, providing a continued dry northerly flow aloft.
Upper level trough axis currently in eastern Idaho is exiting east and taking the showers with it.
Low-layer convergence along this trough, coupled with abundant deep layer moisture, were producing bands of very heavy rain this evening. The dry air and subsidence associated with the back side of the trough (and ridge) will lower PoPs to near 0% through the period. High temperatures will climb into the low to mid 90s each afternoon.
127 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2016 A large ridge of high pressure, extending from the Canadian Maritimes into the northeastern states, will keep our weather dry over the next several days. Ridging both at the surface and aloft will dominate over the area through the period resulting in mainly clear skies with dry weather.
349 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2016 Dewpoints have surged into the low 70s and mid 60s across our FA early this morning as a stout LLJ has developed. Temps will be a couple of degrees warmer today as thicknesses continue to increase from east to west.
The 19Z sfc map shows the low over Jackson and Jones Counties in central SD, with the trough extending northeast through far northwestern Brown County. Best chance for us initially will be across central SD, and then firing up the trough. Monday afternoon could bring additional showers/thunderstorms to the southeastern counties as the sfc boundary lingers over southeastern SD and an additional low rides up the trough from NE. The persistent trough will move just to our southeast, into southern MN/northern IA on Tuesday as a ridge attempt to build in from the north. Will still have some pesky lingering showers/thunderstorms southeast through Tuesday afternoon as highs top out in the low to mid 70s CWA wide. A decent mid level trof over the Rockies will shift east as the flow flattens across the CONUS.
Could see a little more patchy fog in the low- lying and typical fog prone areas toward morning. Lows will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s over the Bluegrass region with mid 60s across the Heritage corridor and points west. For Labor Day, upper level ridge will continue to build in from the west.
321 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2016 A complex pattern exists over the eastern CONUS this morning with a cut-0ff cyclone over the Mid-Atlantic states merging with Post- Tropical Cyclone Hermine. A sharp mid/upper-level ridge has build on the western flank of this storm, extending north across the eastern Great Lakes. As Hermine moves slowly east, we'll see the subtropical ridge expand over the Mid-South. Coverage should remain limited, and like yesterday, shouldn't prevent temperatures from warming into the lower 90s. The combination of the dry air to the east and the large-scale subsidence associated with the upper-level ridge should limit rain chances a bit as we move into the mid-week period.
The trough supporting post-tropical Hermine will continue to push eastward across the Atlantic today, with deep layer ridging beginning to build over the southeast. Moisture and weak convergence will still present at the low levels along the northern Gulf coast, but drier air can already be seen creeping into the mid levels on our 00Z TAE sounding.
/Issued 406 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2016/ The Panhandles will remain in an area of SW flow aloft between mid-a upr lvl high center across the deep south and a trough w/ base digging into NV. H7 theta-e ridging across the wrn 3rd indicates bit of a monsoon connection there while low level SFC to H85 gulf moisture is more evident across the east (hence the mid-upr 60s dewpoints). By Tuesday the upper trough to the west will weaken, but also draw nearer to the area placing the Panhandles near the SERN edge of a jet streak with diffluence aloft noted. Deep layer moisture will increase as H85-H5 thete-e ridging develops due to a tap into tropical moisture across the ERN Pacific and continued SRLY low level flow below.
427 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2016 A blocking ridge aloft will keep central Pennsylvania dry and unseasonably warm, with slowly increasing humidity as the week progresses. High temps will be perhaps 2-4 deg warmer in most areas than today. In the mean time, the upper ridge will keep us fair through midweek before shower chances begin to ramp up along with an increase in the humidity.
Next wave rounding trough seen in IR over wyoming. The overall synoptic pattern will undergo little change on Tuesday as an upper level trough over the intermountain west feeds a steady stream of enhanced southwesterly flow across the Rockies and onto the central/northern Plains. elongated low pressure extends from SE Colorado northeast into central Nebraska with a inverted trough extending northward into southern Minnesota. The models are keying on a disturbance from the southwest sparking off the convection as heights begin to slow fall across northern Colorado with the approach of the parent trough.
As the Pacific trough continues to move across the area this morning, some light showers remain. With the reduced rainfall and cloudiness, have temperatures a little warmer today.
Temperatures will remain cooler than average until midweek when temperatures will begin warming to near normal. Satellite imagery shows the upper level trough now pushing into Southern California and a rather pronounced north to northwest flow into Central California.
The main low pressure center, with the current weather system, has been ramping up its presence early this morning. Moderate to heavy showers are following the low pressure center between Lemhi County Idaho and Butte. The trough will then pass through the rest of the region by late Tuesday bringing rain chances for most into Tuesday night.
Latest water vapor imagery with 500 mb heights showed a trough across the northern Rockies and off the NC coast along with post- tropical system Hermine. An area of upper ridging extended from the Gulf Coast northward toward the Great Lakes. For today, Labor Day, plan on another dry and warm day thanks to the influence of ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface. For Tuesday, upper ridging builds more across the region which will continue the stretch of dry weather.
125 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2016 A blocking ridge aloft will keep TS Hermine offshore, though it will linger off the NJ coast through midweek.
144 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2016 Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine will continue to lift slowly northeast along the East Coast through late week as high pressure persists over the Southeastern States. Will hang on to a slight chance PoP through the evening NE sections/Outer Banks then indicate gradual clearing as weak high pressure continues to build over the area. High pressure surface and aloft will continue to exert it's influence on the area with partly cloudy skies and warm temperatures. Highs will be in the lower 80s.
217 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2016 AT 200 am under clr skies temps were mainly in the low to mid 70s with mid 60 dewpoints. Whats left of Hermine is now along the NE coastline, while an upper high builds across much of the sern US.