Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
150 PM MDT Mon Jul 6 2020 Mean Pac NW upper trough will continue to support active SW flow over the FA through Tuesday, as deep moisture wavers over the area. Main chunk of the Pac NW upper trough will eject east Tues with WAA/moisture advection spreading over the region. Cool front will push through the area Tues night with slightly cooler and drier conds expected Wed most places, except for far eastern scentral SD where frontal convection will be possible in the afternoon. Critical fire weather conds will be possible Tues afternoon as winds shift SW and increase behind a trough. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to around 30 mph are possible with RHâs of 5 to 10 percent on the backside of the trough. The timing of this trough is still unclear.
A weak low across North Texas and a weak boundary extending from this low southwestward through the Hill Country and toward Del Rio has helped to generate an MCV type feature with a line of showers across the Hill Country and isolated light showers both out ahead of and behind this small line. Otherwise, it is hot across South Central Texas, with most locations in the low to mid 90s as of 2 PM (already 101 at Del Rio and may break another record today).
1112 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 Early onset of convection and substantial cloud cover playing havoc with temperatures once again today, with current readings anywhere from the lower 70s to mid 80s. The activity is developing on the western side of a broad upper trof that remains the dominant synoptic feature across the southeastern U. Said trof is providing a slow, but generally uniform southeastern motion to the convection. The pattern will remain fairly uniform into Tuesday as the upper trof continues to provide enhanced precipitation across the region.
Looking at the latest guidance, still favoring some weak sely H85 downslope flow across the terrain this afternoon as low pressure remains southward across AL/GA beneath the weak upper disturbance. Otherwise, did lower max temps a degree across the lower Valley, while also increasing around a degree further north in the wake of the more favorable downslope flow. Moving into Tuesday, featured PROB30s for TSRA at all sites as upper ridging is weaker therefore more widespread coverage of convection is expected. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 87 71 90 73 / 30 60 30 50 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 87 70 90 71 / 20 60 30 50 20 Oak Ridge, TN 70 88 70 91 71 / 20 60 20 50 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 85 66 87 68 / 20 50 30 50 20.
2" PW's, low/mid level troffiness situated across (mainly northern) parts of the region, and the typical daytime heating/seabreeze across southern parts. The second half of the work week into the weekend looks even warmer with above average temperatures and minimal rain chances across the region.
Thunderstorm chances hang around Tuesday with that washed out cold frontal boundary/mid-level trough overhead. Tuesday night is looking quiet overall as upper level ridging re- establishes itself over the region. May still see a few showers/storms sneak back into western potions of the area in warm air advection/moisture transport ahead of low pressure over the Northern Plains.
1140 AM MDT Mon Jul 6 2020 Flow around a broad area of high pressure sprawled across the Southwest has a allowed drier air to spread across the region over the past 24 hours. Flow aloft shifts to the southwest and winds pick up on Tuesday as a mid-level short wave trough ejects from the long wave trough over West Coast.
Modest lower- and mid-level warming leads to an environment less conducive to precip for Tuesday so have gone along with guidance with no precip mention and slightly warmer surface temps.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): High pressure remains generally in control across most of Texas and the Gulf of Mexico through the short term as low pressure across the northern Gulf of Mexico gradually moves further east. A weak coastal trough of low pressure between the ridges building across West Texas and the central Gulf of Mexico and a slight boost in available moisture may have helped a few isolated showers develop this morning into this afternoon, mainly offshore.
208 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 A upper level ridge currently centered over the four corners region is bringing NW flow aloft to the forecast area. The ridge is expected to shift slightly east this afternoon placing the area into more of a northerly flow. As the ridge moves east, the surface flow is expected to veer some, allowing for some weak upslope flow. Winds aloft will remain northerly, which will again limit any storms that form due to the low level upslope flow over in New Mexico. An upper level ridge will rapidly build over the southwestern US for the second half of this week.
Warning and drying conditions continue, becoming progressively more acute by the day as a ridge deepens over the Four Corners. Per SPC, we are in a marginal risk area across the High Plains tomorrow, though moisture will be limited at best.
Storms will form across the higher terrain in central and southwest Montana during the afternoon hours and will progress eastward into Northeast Montana.
We're seeing another modest moisture push into the lower deserts from the gulf, with the Yuma dewpoint up a few degrees and the current KYUX wind profile showing a southerly flow up to 3k feet.
Temperatures are cooler today with higher dewpoints/low level moisture. An upper low will move across southern Canada during the day which will sweep a cold front across the forecast area.
903 AM PDT Mon Jul 6 2020 High pressure will continue the hot inland weather today.
This has left a cold front wallowing up north across the Dakotas, leaving eastern Kansas and Missouri well on the warm side of the front.
212 PM MDT Mon Jul 6 2020 19Z Water vapor imagery/RAP analysis indicated weak westerly flow across the CWA as it was on periphery of large H5 ridge across southwest CONUS. At the surface, trough axis was apparent on sfc winds and cumulus fields was draped from roughly KMNH to KIMB. Otherwise, expect another area of thunderstorms to roll off of the higher terrain and impact northwest corner of CWA.
High pressure will be over MN on Tuesday morning. Upper ridging will exist as well, before an upper wave moves into the area Tuesday night. Ongoing convection Wed AM should shift to the east during the afternoon, as a cold front moves slowly through the valley into Minnesota. Upper ridge will once again build our way by Sat, increasing humidity and chances for TSRA by then. A cold front is moving through the region and prevailing wind directions should eventually shift to the west then northwest but remain 4-7kt.
At the surface, a large area of low pressure is forming over the southeastern United States.
Upper low remains weak, but is just overhead. Showers and storms will continue again tomorrow afternoon as the weak upper low moves eastward.
The pattern will change very little through mid-week as broad ridging remains in place across the central CONUS.
3", which is not far off from the highest for this date.
A cold front will begin to make its way across the Northern Rockies late tonight, impacting north central Idaho after midnight. The cold front will also bring gusty westerly winds to the region as it passes through. Daytime temperatures on Tuesday will be around 10 degrees cooler compared to today.
Diurnal mixing will again support highs on Tues into the low 90s. The northern lakes short wave energy is forecast to drive a backdoor cold front into Se Mi Tues night, likely weakening as it advances inland from Lake Huron. A building of the ridge across the srn and ern lakes will then take hold Wed into Thurs. More significant mid level height falls are forecast to overspread the Great Lakes late Thurs into Fri as a more amplified mid level trough traverses the region.
Upper level ridging, currently over the southwest, will slowly expand eastward into throughout the work week. Some short wave troughs will push through the northeast side of the ridge through the area, aiding in the development of showers and thunderstorms, mainly during daytime heating.
206 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 Upper ridge centered over NM/AZ today is expected to move little during the week only becoming stronger. Actually this ridge looks to hang around through 240 hrs as summer is in full force.
259 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 An upper level ridge continues to dominate our weather with mostly sunny conditions and hot temperatures around 90 F. Tuesday Another hot and humid day on tap with highs in the lower 90s for much of the forecast area, and upper 80s far north and west.
241 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020 A weak area of low pressure is developing over the southeast U.
Tuesday continues our stretch of heat and humidity with highs reaching the lower 90s. Dewpoints will remain in the lower 70s creating high humidity and a heat index hovering around 100.
1110 AM MDT Mon Jul 6 2020 Current surface map places weak cold front across central Wyoming through the Black Hills into south central North Dakota. Ridge builds a bit towards the weekend, which should result in a few dry days.
As this feature slowly tracks eastward, scattered showers and thunderstorms will once again be in the offing by early afternoon into the evening as oppressive dewpoints stream into eastern Kentucky on the northwestward side of the Bermuda ridge.
/Tonight through Monday/ There is certainly no break in our pattern through the valid period and beyond with varied degrees of upper level ridging across the western CONUS. Although moisture levels are comparable, temps are several degrees cooler behind the boundary which has apparently been sufficient to reduce cumulus development and precip potential there, at least temporarily.
/issued 238 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): High pressure remains generally in control across most of Texas and the Gulf of Mexico through the short term as low pressure across the northern Gulf of Mexico gradually moves further east. A weak coastal trough of low pressure between the ridges building across West Texas and the central Gulf of Mexico and a slight boost in available moisture may have helped a few isolated showers develop this morning into this afternoon, mainly offshore.
While the lower level ridge is located over South Florida and the Keys and winds should be light out of the south, copious convection over the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico and South Florida this afternoon resulted in a prevailing east northeast flow across our area. This allowed for the development of showers and thunderstorms over the Lower and Middle Keys through the evening hours. Short Term Update - Lower level ridging will remain just north of our area through the overnight period. Outside of areas recently cooled by heavy evening rains, overnight lows will be in the lower 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. A ridge axis will remain just north of Keys waters.
Quick moving upper level trough will push through NorCal this afternoon and evening. Much cooler overnight temperatures under the onshore flow with lows from the mid to upper 50's in the Valley.
An upper level ridge continues to dominate our weather with mostly sunny conditions and hot temperatures around 90 F. Tuesday Another hot and humid day on tap with highs in the lower 90s for much of the forecast area, and upper 80s far north and west.
Temperatures to range from the upper 70s near the coast to the lower/mid 70s north. Less rain and clouds means warmer temperatures, with readings areawide expected to climb into the upper 80s to near 90. This warming trend will accelerate THU as the trof axis is gradually filled by the merger of the ridge over the NW Gulf and another S of the Four Corners. The latter will become the dominant ridge center and the primary influence on our weather FRI and through the weekend, with temperatures increasing into the mid/upper 90s by SAT. Areawide dry weather is expected THU and FRI, but disturbances rounding the eastern flank of the ridge will yield at least small rain chances over east and south central LA SAT through MON.
/Issued 308 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020/ Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms continue to increase across the area this afternoon as a small area of low pressure continues tracking north-northeastward into central Georgia. Weak low pressure at the surface and aloft will persist on Tuesday along with aforementioned deep, rich moisture.
HRRR and NAMNest have storms firing up in the higher terrain of southern Montana near the Wyoming border in the middle of the afternoon and moving northeastward, with the HRRR being more agressive with the development and movement of these storms. Storms will form across the higher terrain in central and southwest Montana during the afternoon hours and will progress eastward into Northeast Montana.
Underneath this strong west-southwest flow, along with ample moisture being advected across the state due to the broad low pressure system over GA/AL, there is little in the way to prevent these showers and storms from continuing through the remainder of the evening. The exception is across the Nature Coast, closer to the influence of the low.
We're seeing another modest moisture push into the lower deserts from the gulf, with the Yuma dewpoint holding close to 50 instead of mixing lower this afternoon.
KTUL, KRVS, and KBVO may be lucky enough to escape shower/storm activity tomorrow as a ridge of high pressure slowly builds over the area thus have opted to exclude VCTS wording in their TAFs.
Otherwise for tonight, look for partly to mostly cloudy skies with lows falling into the low and middle 70s. Troughing across the region will persist into Tuesday.
High pressure will be over MN on Tuesday morning. Upper ridging will exist as well, before an upper wave moves into the area Tuesday night. Ongoing convection Wed AM should shift to the east during the afternoon, as a cold front moves slowly through the valley into Minnesota. Upper ridge will once again build our way by Sat, increasing humidity and chances for TSRA by then.
Winds will be light SW Tuesday in advance of the trough and veer to W with its passage during the afternoon. Diurnal mixing will again support highs on Tues into the low 90s. The northern lakes short wave energy is forecast to drive a backdoor cold front into Se Mi Tues night, likely weakening as it advances inland from Lake Huron. A building of the ridge across the srn and ern lakes will then take hold Wed into Thurs. More significant mid level height falls are forecast to overspread the Great Lakes late Thurs into Fri as a more amplified mid level trough traverses the region.
/issued 208 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020/ A upper level ridge currently centered over the four corners region is bringing NW flow aloft to the forecast area. The ridge is expected to shift slightly east this afternoon placing the area into more of a northerly flow. As the ridge moves east, the surface flow is expected to veer some, allowing for some weak upslope flow. Winds aloft will remain northerly, which will again limit any storms that form due to the low level upslope flow over in New Mexico. An upper level ridge will rapidly build over the southwestern US for the second half of this week.
We will see general upper level ridging through Tuesday night, and thus will keep this period dry and warm things up into the 90s. An upper level trough will slide east from the pacific northwest into the northern plains.
Cold front currently in central Oregon will bring gusty west winds and cooling to our CWA later tonight.
Skies will thin in clouds with low temps in the lower-mid 70s.
539 PM MDT Mon Jul 6 2020 Mean Pac NW upper trough will continue to support active SW flow over the FA through Tuesday, as deep moisture wavers over the area. Main chunk of the Pac NW upper trough will eject east Tues with WAA/moisture advection spreading over the region. Cool front will push through the area Tues night with slightly cooler and drier conds expected Wed most places, except for far eastern scentral SD where frontal convection will be possible in the afternoon. Critical fire weather conds will be possible Tues afternoon as winds shift SW and increase behind a trough. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to around 30 mph are possible with RHâs of 5 to 10 percent on the backside of the trough. The timing of this trough is still unclear.
/issued 206 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020/ Upper ridge centered over NM/AZ today is expected to move little during the week only becoming stronger. Actually this ridge looks to hang around through 240 hrs as summer is in full force.
Tomorrow should see more scattering of the low cloud especially just inland from the coast.
902 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 An area of low pressure tracking into the Southeast from the GOM has generated widespread showers and thunderstorms in areas mainly well to our south and east today, while mostly warm conditions and a lack of activity has occurred across the central Tennessee Valley. However, a weak, low-level speed max on the northern flank of the low appears to be causing some isolated showers to develop in parts of NE Alabama this evening.
VFR prevails outside low stratus/BR near dawn with the highest probability of MVFR to IFR conditions across western/northern terminals.
1121 PM MDT Mon Jul 6 2020 Mean Pac NW upper trough will continue to support active SW flow over the FA through Tuesday, as deep moisture wavers over the area. Main chunk of the Pac NW upper trough will eject east Tues with WAA/moisture advection spreading over the region. Cool front will push through the area Tues night with slightly cooler and drier conds expected Wed most places, except for far eastern scentral SD where frontal convection will be possible in the afternoon. Critical fire weather conds will be possible Tues afternoon as winds shift SW and increase behind a trough. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to around 30 mph are possible with RHâs of 5 to 10 percent on the backside of the trough. The timing of this trough is still unclear.
Across northern Utah, weak cold front will push into the area, leading to a few degrees of cooling.
A narrow, and weak ridge axis extending across extreme South Florida will slowly splinter on Tuesday night, with little change expected thereafter.
Upper level pattern has an split pattern, with an upper level ridge north of the Mid-south. In the southern US, there is an upper trough just out the east of the Mid-South and an upper high to the west. The upper low to the east will slowly move east during the rest of the week, however, it also broadens out. The upper high doesn't move much. Yet, the northern branch is progressive and late in the week the upper level ridge has moved east and an upper low will push to the north and then dig south when it gets closer to the east coast.
Tuesday will be breezy and cooler following the passage of a cold front.
1151 PM MDT Mon Jul 6 2020 19Z Water vapor imagery/RAP analysis indicated weak westerly flow across the CWA as it was on periphery of large H5 ridge across southwest CONUS. At the surface, trough axis was apparent on sfc winds and cumulus fields was draped from roughly KMNH to KIMB. Otherwise, expect another area of thunderstorms to roll off of the higher terrain and impact northwest corner of CWA.
357 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020 The upper level pattern today remains very similar to that of the last several days with the CWA sitting in a region of weakness between 2 ridges with ample moisture in place.
The surface boundary should remain in place throughout the day, along with the upper-level trough. By tonight, the upper trough will shift southeastward while the upper ridge starts to build in from the west. Temperatures will continue to be very mild in the low to mid 70s overnight.
The upper ridge will begin to flatten by Tue, which will support glancing blows from embedded troughs in the flow while maintaining the ongoing heat. Storms each day likely will begin along the ridges by early-mid afternoon before developing farther west amid continued heating and lingering outflow from prior day's storms. Forecast maxima in the low 90s persist, with minima in the upper 60s-near 70 each night. The upper ridge yielding the prolonged heat will transition to troughing late in the week as moisture increases. Thu convective potential is the lowest of the medium-range period as the region will be located between Nrn-Plains troughing and an inland-moving trough in the Carolinas. Fri and Sat will feature stronger waves embedded in the flow around the ewd-advancing Nrn Plains trough, and attendant broader coverage of thunderstorms before temperature transitions toward average in the mid-upper 80s.
A dry cold front will work its way through the region this morning followed by a modest mid-level trough. This afternoon, along the upper trough, expect to see some showers and isolated thunderstorms in the Central Mountains and the Island Park area.
The upper level ridge continues to flatten across the northern tier states, making for gradually more progressive west-to-east flow across the area. However, a plenty moist environment remains in place over nearly the entire WFO MPX coverage area ahead of the cold front as PWATs are nearly 1. The cold front will then settle over the MN/IA border into far southwestern MN Tuesday and Tuesday night, leaving far southern MN into southwestern WI to have the best chances for isolated to scattered showers/t-storms tomorrow and tomorrow night. Coverage will again be rather sparse with the lack of appreciable upper level support and the cold front displaced to the south before another system approaches from the west tomorrow.
Hot and humid conditions continue across central Indiana with weak upper level ridging slowly breaking down over the next few days ahead of an upper level low pressure system.
An area of low pressure tracking into the Southeast from the GOM has generated widespread showers and thunderstorms in areas mainly well to our south and east today, while mostly warm conditions and a lack of activity has occurred across the central Tennessee Valley. However, a weak, low-level speed max on the northern flank of the low appears to be causing some isolated showers to develop in parts of NE Alabama this evening.
The spine of a mid level ridge will extend over southwest Kansas today. At the surface, the lee trough will deepen slightly.
The weak upper low responsible for this shower activity is expected to slowly drift eastward today and weaken further. Models suggest precipitation chances today will be confined to southern and southeastern Oklahoma closer to the center of the low.
Low pressure is well to our north, transiting Hudson Bay. An associated cold front drapes down across central Superior and western upper MI. ) Another place convection could briefly fire this afternoon is in eastern upper MI, south of M-28, as a secondary trof/low-level convergence axis develops. Max temps will be somewhat cooler today in eastern upper and nw lower MI, ranging thru the 80s. Still toasty in ne lower, near 90 to the lower 90s. Activity could linger as late as mid-evening near Saginaw Bay, but otherwise briefly cooler, drier, and more stable air will be in place across northern MI tonight. Min temps tonight a little cooler, upper 50s to mid 60s.
Onshore flow with low clouds late tonight through Tuesday morning as an upper trough moves across the area. An upper disturbance will cross the region tonight and Tuesday, bringing a round of widespread showers and cooler temperatures.
328 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020 Today-tonight: With exit of upper trough, only minor 300MB diffluence, and warming 500MB temperatures, would expect storms to be less numerous today. While there is a fair amount of difference between models on 850MB moisture, it appears that at least southeast KS may hold onto the higher dewpoints another day.