Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A sfc warm front is lagging a bit and just entering far Southwest Iowa. The increasing moisture aloft in addition to dewpoints rising back into the lower 70s has led to instabilities increasing with MLCAPES near 2500 J/KG in the vicinity of the warm front. /Saturday through Friday/ The warm front will have lifted through the state by Saturday morning. A cold front will reach Northwest Iowa around 4 pm then move very slowly southeast overnight. Pwat values near 2 inches and relatively slow storm motions of 20-30 mph would suggest some potential for locally heavy rainfall though the warm cloud depths will be a mixed bag with lack of good saturation at the low levels that may leave cloud bases a bit higher and diminishing these depths.
After some areas of dense fog tomorrow morning, warmer and dry conditions are expected through the weekend.
859 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A cold front will drop very slowly south and across the area Saturday.
Clear and cool tonight with upper trough still over our area. Much warmer through the weekend as the trough exits east and a broad upper ridge builds north from the Great Basin.
1002 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A back door cold front will slowly sag south through the region tonight and early Saturday.
903 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 High pressure over the Great Lakes will drift to New England Saturday but will continue to influence weather across the region through Saturday.
The cap has been slow to erode this morning, but with increasing instability this afternoon and warm front retreating north, we should see showers and thunderstorms begin to increase in coverage over the next few hours. Return flow Saturday ahead of a cold front will allow temperatures to climb back into the mid 90s for much of the CWA. Moisture transport will also increase ahead of the cold front as open gulf and additional low level moisture from a western GOM tropical disturbance is drawn northward into the Plains.
802 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather through the weekend. Heights will gradually rise overnight as ridging builds in with clear skies expected. Looking for temperatures to bottom out in the 50s with some 40s across the higher terrain of the southern Adirondacks.
A low pressure system and associated frontal boundary will track across the CWA late tonight and Saturday morning.
/issued 424 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016/ Rest of Today-Tonight: Low level ridge axis is draped across Lake Okeechobee this afternoon, well marked by the direction of shower and storm movement across the Florida peninsula.
(Issued 324 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016) The 20z surface and satellite analysis indicated that temps were ranging from the mid to upper 80s across northeast Alabama and in southern middle Tennessee, to the lower 90s in northwest Alabama.
Otherwise, dry weather will prevail tonight through Saturday night as an upper ridge builds back over the area.
A weak ridge of high pressure aloft will give drier conditions on Saturday along with warming conditions.
Dry westerly flow in response to a trough moving through the northern states will continue to gradually push eastward today and tonight. Daytime temperatures will be at least 5 degrees warmer than average in most locations.
The computer models continue to depict a rather beefy upper level ridge across the southeastern states through the weekend. The upper level high will also help to suppress much convection. However, with conditions getting that hot, a few thunderstorms are bound to form on the edges of the high.
Remainder of the evng looks quiet as the deep ridging pattern that has dominated the recent lcl wx pattern remains firmly entrenched over the FL Peninsula. Bermuda ridge axis over central FL will maintain a light to gentle E/SE breeze overnight.
745 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 A warm front draped across southeast Missouri into northwest Tennessee will remain fairly stationary tonight.
This diurnally enhanced isolated convection is expected to diminish after sunset over southeast IL as short wave trof shears/weakens over central and southeast IL. Another short wave trof over MN and northern IA to track over WI/MI and northern IL by Wed morning. CWA will remain in between the upper level trough to the north and the frontal remnants to the south. So, dry weather is expected across the CWA for Wed night through Thur night, though slight chance of precip will be in the extreme northeast and east Wed night and Thur near the upper level trough.
Weak cold front now roughly halfway across the forecast running roughly from Dubois to Zanesville. The passing front will do little to scour out low-level moisture and with the upper trough approaching and daytime heating scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop again during the afternoon.
Fcst going as expected with main t-storm activity forming in west central MN and far southeastern ND along the main short wave trough.
Despite the high level cloudiness there will likely be at least patchy fog late tonight and early Wednesday morning due to the light surface wind and abundant surface/boundary layer moisture. GKS A scattered diurnally-driven cumulus cloud field covers much of our region, with a thicker mid and high level cloud decks prevailing over areas mainly to the southeast of STL metro, and have kept temps a bit cooler as a result, with readings in the 70s. But for STL Metro and areas north and west, temps have risen into the low-mid 80s.
605 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016 231 PM CDT High pressure is spreading across the region, and the scattered showers east of I-57 will continue southeast. Fewer clouds could lead to warmer temps, while more cloudy conditions may limit surface warming. Dewpoints in the low 70s will result in heat indices around 90.
A weak trough of low pressure across portions of western Kansas this afternoon will retreat back west into Colorado this evening into the overnight period. Lee troughing will strengthen across eastern Colorado tomorrow leading to breezy southerly winds in the afternoon. As for temperatures, lows tonight look to dip once again into the low to mid 60s with highs tomorrow reaching into the low to mid 90s.
1131 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 A weak cold front will drop down through the state tonight and stall along the Maryland border. However, the temperatures will not become all that much cooler. The leading line extends from east central PA southwestward to the Lower Susq River Valley where marginal storms are still occurring at this hour. The key changes include the complete erosion of the subtropical ridge along and off the East Coast and the evolution of a trough in the central United States.
1217 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through Wednesday then weaken.
734 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the Atlantic through Wednesday.
Drier air behind a cold front will arrive for Wednesday. Seasonable temperatures will follow for the rest of the week, followed by warmer and more humid conditions with another chance of thunderstorms this weekend. Forcing associated with a complex low pressure system moving across the Great Lakes and up the St. Best shear is near the low track across our northern zones, while best instability resides further to the south. Still believe there is risk of organized strong to severe storms around the region from about 21Z to 03Z along and ahead of the cold front. Drier/cooler air filters in better tomorrow, so lows tonight above normal in the mid-upr 60s.
Overnight lows slightly warmer than previous nights in the middle 60s, with highs on Tuesday also a few degrees warmer in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
A region of high pressure over North Dakota will keep the short term period quiet through Wednesday. But an approaching cold front will begin an active thunderstorms pattern starting Wednesday night. By Wednesday the high pressure area departs to the east as low pressure in Montana brings return moisture and warmth to the region. An approaching cold front in Saskatchewan will be the focus for scattered thunderstorms by Late Wednesday afternoon Severe weather is not expected Wednesday evening as the better 0-6km shear and cape remain to the north of the region.
Convection should struggle to make it much past the Highway 36 corridor, although it should be noted one CAM does take a weak complex southeast towards the Interstate 70 corridor before dissipating overnight.
Widely scattered tstms over the mtns from a weak upper low over UT will diminish this eve.
Recent satellite trends suggest these clouds persisting into the overnight before the upstream mid level trough shunts them to the southeast of the forecast area. For tonight, skies will go generally clear as weak surface and upper level ridging will be in place. Dew point will increase slightly during the day to the mid to upper 60s with highs in the low to mid 80s leading to capes about 1k-1.
624 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016 An upper level trough is currently pushing across the central US this afternoon. A drier air mass has spread into the region with the trough which is keeping the rain to the south and east of the area. Temperatures will top out in the low to mid 80s this afternoon. Temperatures will drop into the lower to middle 60s tonight into early Wednesday morning. Wednesday will be dry again with temperatures slightly warmer than today as highs warm into the middle to upper 80s.
848 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 The center of deep layer high pressure remains over GA/SC and offshore into the western Atlantic. Deep ridging resides north of ECFL.
Weak ridging to persist across the region into early Wednesday, before trough digs across the northern Rockies to end the week. With the ridging in place tonight, only instability to speak of is over the mountains and will keep an isolated storm there into the evening. Upper flow becomes southwesterly late Wednesday ahead of digging trough sinking south from Canada. Initial cold front drops south through the region Wednesday night, turning winds to the northeast.
During the daylight hours, a weak surface front/trough moves closer to the northwestern counties, but looks like it will stall before making it into the area.
8 pm temperatures were trending warmer than that time yesterday by 1-7 degrees. Temperatures running a few degrees warmer than 24 hours ago with weaker Delta Breeze in place.
Front will remain about stationary overnight while a weakening mid level trough will push into western sections of the Mid-South.
4 pm temperatures were in the lower to mid 80s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Highs will be mainly in the lower 80s. Forecast focus on increasing thunderstorms late in the week with a strong cold front, then a taste of fall later in the extended.
Temperatures will be seasonal with lows from the upper 50s to lower 60s and highs Wednesday from 80 to 85 in southwest Minnesota to the lower 90s in south central SD. Warm front lifts toward the Missouri River Valley Wednesday night, accompanied by a ribbon of elevated instability and modest warm advection into the James River Valley after midnight. Any early morning activity should lift north of the area by mid to late morning, with attention then turning to approaching mid-upper level wave and cold front. Strong thermal ridge works into the forecast area ahead of the front, which should aid in warming temperatures into the lower-mid 90s throughout much of the forecast area.
1126 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016 Tonight-Wednesday: Relatively quiet weather anticipated with passage of upper trough axis.
451 PM PDT Tue Aug 16 2016 High pressure will continue warm and dry weather this week.
753 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016 A quasi-stationary front is draped across the Mid-South this evening downstream of the approaching mid-level trough axis. Front will remain about stationary overnight while a weakening mid level trough will push into western sections of the Mid-South.
At 8 PM MDT upper low was in the northwestern corner of Nevada and moving toward the east-southeast. Isolated thunderstorms were occurring near the low along the OR/NV border but should go no further north as the sun sets and the low moves ESE. Models still have the poorly organized upper low in northern Nevada Wednesday but slightly greater moisture and instability will help generate afternoon and evening thunderstorms in southern Idaho, possibly as far north as the Boise Mountains.
1030 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 A weak cold front will drop down through the state tonight and stall along the Maryland border. However, the temperatures will not become all that much cooler. The leading line extends from east central PA southwestward to the Lower Susq River Valley where marginal storms are still occurring at this hour. The key changes include the complete erosion of the subtropical ridge along and off the East Coast and the evolution of a trough in the central United States.
Winds will become light from the east overnight as high pressure continues to ridge across the area from the Atlantic. High pressure ridging across the area will keep generally light easterly flow over the waters. The ridge axis will sink south through the latter half of the week and allow winds to shift to the S/SE and have a sea breeze develop in the afternoons.
High pressure will build into the region tonight, bringing dry weather and light winds (directly overhead 06-12Z Wednesday). Highs over the southwestern third of the CWA will still rise into the low 90s.
Approaching cold front will move through the forecast area Wednesday, followed by another over the weekend. Cold front crosses the area overnight tonight.
943 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 Low pressure over southern Lake Huron will move to southern Quebec overnight and should reach Maine by Wednesday morning. A cold front trailing the low will drop southeast across the area through the evening.
The area has a few more positives working for it including mixed layer CAPE in excess of 2000-2500 J/kg, DCAPE around 1000 J/kg, a weak surface cold front, and marginal shear around 25-30kts.
Quiet night with mostly clear skies dominating the region with exiting high pressure from the region. Proton A collapsing ridge moves into Northeast Montana today that will generate dry conditions tonight. Temperatures, which were close to normal today, trend warmer for Wednesday, into the 90s. Then there will be a significant change in the weather pattern late Wednesday when a cold front moves out of Canada. This trough has cooler air behind it - all the way into the Arctic Ocean region. Then by early evening a distinct cold front pushes into our northern counties. These initial disturbances, along with a large trough off to the west, will begin generating afternoon thunderstorms that become more widespread in the evening. Winds shift to northerly behind the cold front.
The trough will move east this evening and gradually diminish the thunder threat before midnight in eastern MN and western WI - most locations will be done with thunder well before midnight.
717 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through Wednesday then weaken.
810 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 A unidirectional easterly flow from 1000-500 mb around the high to our north is pushing convection rapidly westward and out of the local KJAX Area Of responsibility.
1002 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 An area of low pressure will pass to our north dragging its associated cool front across the region overnight. Wednesday will feature increasing sunshine and lowering humidity levels as high pressure builds in. The low pressure will continue to move eastward, pressure falls occurrng along the United States/Canada border. As the low moves farther away Wednesday will be have increasing sunshine as the day progresses.
Even though a weak upper level ridge moves back into the area from the east.
On Wednesday, a weak surface front/trough moves in from the north.
Recent satellite trends suggest these clouds persisting into the overnight before the upstream mid level trough shunts them to the southeast of the forecast area. A push of mid level dry air and post frontal mixing has eroded most of the low clouds from earlier today. For tonight, skies will go generally clear as weak surface and upper level ridging will be in place. Dew point will increase slightly during the day to the mid to upper 60s with highs in the low to mid 80s leading to capes about 1k-1.
90 along with increased low level CAPE and slightly cooler mid level temps all point to a continued increase in TSRA activity. The two main atmospheric features are the moisture plume extending north to south across the MS river valley and the Bermuda ridge that stays parked over the region through the end of the week. This ridge is doing a great job of keeping the main axis of moisture north and west of our area through Wed Night. but the ridge weakens as we move through the extended. This ridge eventually allows the deeper moisture to move into our area Thu/Fri and will see increased chances of rain through the weekend.
The low level jet increases this evening across northeast Kansas and this could help promote thunderstorm activity. The pesky trough shifts to the east Wednesday with mid level ridging, thus have a mainly dry forecast and high temperatures in the 80s to around 90.
The next slightly stronger trough works into the Great Basin on Wednesday and into central Utah Wednesday night. 9 inch ahead of this trough and this deeper moisture works into even the northern zones by Wednesday evening.
1145 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016 An upper level trough is currently pushing across the central US this afternoon. A drier air mass has spread into the region with the trough which is keeping the rain to the south and east of the area. Temperatures will top out in the low to mid 80s this afternoon. Temperatures will drop into the lower to middle 60s tonight into early Wednesday morning. Wednesday will be dry again with temperatures slightly warmer than today as highs warm into the middle to upper 80s.
705 PM EDT Tue Aug 16 2016 A weak cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms into Wednesday. Pre-frontal trough front across the area now almost to the ridges with stratiform rain trailing behind. The actual cold front is now entering northwestern PA and will result in another relatively short increase in winds and precipitation later tonight but the threat of further severe weather is low.
Mid/upper level shear axis remains parked just east of the forecast area today however upper ridging across the SE ConUS will slowly build westward tonight, shifting the shear axis back west.
Patchy fog possible further north across NE OK/NW AR, however should be less widespread than last night given the expected cloud cover/warmer temperatures.
Despite abundant moisture across the whole area, afternoon model guidance indicates the highest POPs this evening across SE Texas.
715 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 Low pressure over southern Lake Huron will move to southern Quebec overnight and should reach Maine by Wednesday morning. A cold front trailing the low will drop southeast across the area through the evening.
Weak upper troughing is expected to linger across the area through most of the rest of the week. Band of rain associated with a shearing out upper trough continues to drop southeast this afternoon, while scattered shower activity has been developing back across eastern Illinois and northwest Indiana. These showers appear to be diurnal in nature, and are probably tied to a low level convergent zone left over from yesterday's low pressure system. Model data suggest upper trough will gradually sink towards the Ohio River tonight. Model data indicate a positively tilted upper trough will remain across the local area for most of this period, along with a rather unstable air mass and low convective temperatures.
Main change for the update was to lower overnight minimum temperatures in many locations, especially the higher southwest valleys due to the combination of light winds and low dewpoint temperatures. Broad high pressure aloft will keep a dry westerly flow aloft over the forecast area, for mostly clear skies through around 18Z. A Canadian cold front will also shift winds more northerly from north to south between 16Z and 24Z, bringing a few showers to the Hi-Line after 20Z.
High pressure off the eastern seaboard has limited the eastern progress of this surface boundary. A trough over the Great Basin has kicked off some convection along the higher terrain in Colorado and New Mexico, but this activity should quickly die off as it moves east.
1028 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the Atlantic through Wednesday.
/issued 332 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016/ The weak upper level high pressure ridge extending over the area from a broader ridge over the eastern Pacific Ocean will continue through Wednesday. We would expect a more successful cumulus cloud layer Wednesday afternoon owing to a little more low level moisture, but otherwise will confine the low thunderstorm chances again to the southeast corner.
1003 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 A weak cold front will drop down through the state tonight and stall along the Maryland border. However, the temperatures will not become all that much cooler. the Ridge and Valley region and the South Central Mountains at this hour. This along and ahead of the cold front. The key changes include the complete erosion of the subtropical ridge along and off the East Coast and the evolution of a trough in the central United States.
The latest KBRO reflectivity shows that the current convection is west of Interstate 69C and is moving northwards where the higher afternoon temps is maintaining the instability a little bit longer. Wednesday the upper low weakens and diminishes.
705 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 A push of mid level dry air and post frontal mixing has eroded most of the low clouds from earlier today. For tonight, skies will go generally clear as weak surface and upper level ridging will be in place. Dew point will increase slightly during the day to the mid to upper 60s with highs in the low to mid 80s leading to capes about 1k-1.
/issued 753 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016/ A quasi-stationary front is draped across the Mid-South this evening downstream of the approaching mid-level trough axis. Front will remain about stationary overnight while a weakening mid level trough will push into western sections of the Mid-South.
853 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 A weak cold front will drop down through the state tonight and stall along the Maryland border. However, the temperatures will not become all that much cooler. the Ridge and Valley region and the South Central Mountains at this hour. This along and ahead of the cold front. The key changes include the complete erosion of the subtropical ridge along and off the East Coast and the evolution of a trough in the central United States.
Upper flow over the northern plains is northwesterly as trough shifts out of the region and a weak ridge moves in. Storms will subside early this evening as weak upper ridging moves overhead, and a generally dry night can be expected.
757 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 A weak cold front moving across northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio will cause isolated showers in this area this evening. Otherwise, fair weather is expected tonight as a weak high pressure ridge builds in from the west. A weak upper level trough will move across the Great Lakes on Wednesday, possibly causing a few showers and storms in our area. A stronger cold front is expected to move across the region over the weekend bringing a better chance of rain. A few lingering showers in our south this evening as elongated/positively tilted trough and associated convergent boundary slowly push out of our area.
1019 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through Wednesday then weaken.
There is also a 500mb ridge over the western Atlantic. Models are also indicating an inverted trough at 500mb moving into the region late tonight, maybe tomorrow morning.
Shower and thunderstorm activity will favor the higher terrain.