Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
216 PM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 For this evening and overnight, slightly moister air in the vicinity of the southern Bahamas and eastern Cuba will slowly advect into the area on relatively uniform southeasterly flow through the lower boundary layer (lowest 300mb).
A cold front arrives Wednesday morning bringing more gusty winds and isolated to scattered showers for eastern Washington and Idaho. Then, anticipate much cooler fall temperatures for the latter half of the week with spotty light mountain showers in the Idaho Panhandle.
Temperatures are warming into the low to mid 70s across the plains, where elevated fire danger remains a concern for the afternoon. Highs should reach the low 80s for the plains and 60s to 70s for most of the high country. The upper level ridge will continue to be the main influence with a dry, warm and subsident airmass in place. Tonight will remain dry as well, although the ridge that has been over the region, will shift into the Northern Plains by 12z Wed. For Wednesday, an upper level trough will lift north-northeast from the Four Corners region to eastern Wyoming. The trough will be weakening as it moves across Colorado.
Temperatures are tracking well with most locations in the low 70s. Ridging aloft continues tomorrow, but begins to break down late on Wednesday as a cut off low over the south central CONUS drifts northward. Lows Wednesday night will be in the 50s for most, with the Twin Cities Metro area staying in the low 60s.
808 PM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 Isolated showers and thunderstorm chances will continue this week within a warm, humid airmass ahead of low pressure. Dry conditions will prevail tonight with the area under a building ridge. This is in response to a split flow pattern with elongated, southern stream low pressure deepening over the lower Mississippi River Valley. The exception would be across the far sern ridges in WV; where a few terrain-driven showers, due to low- level easterly flow, are possible early this eve. By Wednesday, ridging overhead will begin to erode late in the day as a trough digs across the Pacific Northwest region and shunts the southern stream, closed low farther east.
704 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021 A cut off low in the lower Mississippi River Valley will slowly lift northwest tonight into Wednesday, reaching south central Missouri by late Wednesday afternoon. Isolated showers will be possible this evening manly across the eastern Ozarks, but CAMs models showing more widespread showers/isolated thunderstorms moving into the eastern Ozarks late tonight then spread eastward as the low lifts north. With the clouds and rain temperatures will drop into the upper 50s tonight and into the low to mid 70s for highs on Wednesday.
Closed upper low over western Mississippi will retrograde NW into the Ozarks by Wed evening, with a sfc warm front pivoting N/NW into Kentucky tonight. Later in the night precip will be more focused to the south and west of Bowling Green, directed more in line with the low-level jet. Veering flow is expected on Wednesday, with a vort lobe swinging around the east side of the closed low late.
Fog tonight should be held in check, with the low clouds and some easterly flow. Highs Wednesday should range from the upper 60s near the lake to the lower 70s inland. High pressure will remain east of the region during this period, as a closed 500 mb low shifts gradually northward from northern Mississippi to southeast Missouri.
738 PM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 A weak trough will drift from east to west across the forecast area today. High pressure will build inland later in the weekend. Latest water vapor images show a large mid-level low over the lower and middle Mississippi River Valley this evening. At the sfc, a broad area of low pressure was centered over MS with a weak ridge across the western Carolinas. A large closed upper low will remain over the central United States on Wednesday before slowly lifting north and weakening.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande Valley the rest of tonight into early Wednesday morning as the 500mb low across the lower Mississippi River valley continues to provide subsidence across south Texas tonight with northwest flow aloft. /issued 244 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Due to a stationary low pressure system situated to our east in the SE CONUS, dry air will move into the CWA and eliminate any rain chances through the short term period. As a ridge moves in from the west Wednesday, southerly flow returns with moisture slowly making its way back to Deep South Texas.
624 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021 High pressure both at the sfc and a loft will remain the main weather feature across northern parts of the region through the better part of Wed. Southward, a cutoff upper level low sits across the lower mississippi river valley, but cyclonic flow north of the low will provide steady east/southeasterly flow - along with ample saturation. WED NIGHT-FRI: closed upper level low over TX will get a kick northward, meandering slowly over the western great lakes by 00z Sat, then east as it gets more caught up in the upper level flow and ahead of 100 kt 300 mb jet.
Thunder will likely be limited to southeast Missouri this evening, but with the upper low approaching not willing to remove a mention of thunder from any portion of the area at this time. Upper level energy will rotate NNW around the low and supply the lift necessary for the showers and storms to continue and spread NW across the area through the evening and overnight. Given the close proximity of the low, the chance will continue through Wednesday, though there may be a late night early morning lull working northward in the wake of the initial batch of energy.
Expect a modest increase in cloud cover overnight (especially across western AR) as the upper low wobbles a bit closer to the forecast area.
However given the persistent dry layers in the low and mid levels, this will initially hamper rain chances.
733 PM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 During the next 24 hours an upper low meanders aloft the lower Mississippi Valley. high pressure in New England reaches down the eastern seaboard to FL. and a weak trough was over and just north of the Bahamas.
805 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021 Light showers will continue to move across the area this evening, but dry conditions and lows in the lower 60s should prevail the rest of the night.
Cloud cover was increasing from the east early this afternoon as increased moisture pushes west between high pressure centered to the northeast and a weak low under a modest cutoff low over northwest Mississippi. The increased moisture and cloud cover should lead to warmer overnight period tonight. The upper low retrogrades north-northwest into Wednesday evening and brings deeper moisture into eastern Kansas.
High pressure will build inland later in the weekend. Latest water vapor images show a large mid-level low over the lower and middle Mississippi River Valley this evening. At the sfc, a broad area of low pressure was centered over MS with a weak ridge across the western Carolinas. A large closed upper low will remain over the central United States on Wednesday before slowly lifting north and weakening.
This activity is occurring along an axis of moisture convergence on the east side of an upper level low centered south of Memphis. As the upper low begins shifting northward overnight and Wednesday, several waves of showers and thunderstorms will spread northward across Middle Tennessee through the night and most of tomorrow, while gradually shifting eastward with time.
629 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021 Flight conditions over the next 24 hours will be determined by position of the upper low, which is currently in the vicinity of southeast Arkansas.
Light winds, dry air, and cloud-free skies will result in optimal conditions for efficient radiational cooling tonight, with low temperatures dipping into the low 50s to low 60s by early Wednesday morning. Similar weather is expected tomorrow, as we remain on the western (subsident) side of an upper low. The upper level low to our northeast will continue pulling into the Midwest through the end of the week, and upper level ridging will gradually replace the larger scale pattern.
557 PM MDT Tue Oct 5 2021 Not much to write home about this afternoon as our upper level ridge axis slowly moves east of the forecast area. Highs tomorrow will be a touch cooler, but will still reach 80F for most of the plains.
910 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021 Multiple waves of moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall continue to spread nwd over parts of north cntrl/NW AL this late Tue evening, as an upper low meanders over the lower MS Valley/Mid South areas. The stacked upper low will begin to track north on Wednesday, bringing additional waves of showers and storms northeast.
947 PM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 High pressure will ridge across the region through mid week with a nearly stationary frontal boundary remaining to the south.
617 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021 (00Z TAFS) Light e-se winds will persist into the evening with weak surface ridging. (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Above-normal temperatures during the afternoon will continue the next few days as ridging remains stout as we sit parked between two upper-lows (One over SoCal and another over the Lower Mississippi Valley). Low out west will fade into obscurity as the one to the east slowly exits stage right while the ridge flexes its muscle over West TX. Lows will fall towards normal however, thanks to the abundant dry air nestled in the area as we sit on the subsidence side of the cyclonic behemoth over the Lower Mississippi.
513 PM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 While strong high pressure will remain centered to our north for much of the week, clouds will be slow to clear across the region. A Rex block developing over the center of the country will maintain expansive high pressure that will be centered over Quebec for the next few days. Through this period a closed low will slowly drift northward from the mid Mississippi Valley to the Central Great Lakes as it nears the cresting point of an established upper level ridge of high pressure.
Drier weather is expected late in the weekend as the upper low moves away from the region. Nearly stationary closed upper low over the Lower Miss Valley, with upper ridge offshore. At the surface, high pressure ridging down the eastern seaboard providing an easterly low level flow. With the high amplitude upper level pattern and the cut off low over the Lower MS Valley the synoptic situation will be slowly to change. Current expectation is the moisture associated with the wave will move inland across NC however depending on the upper low to the west this could shift further south and will be monitored.
631 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021 Light showers will continue to move across the area this evening, but dry conditions and lows in the lower 60s should prevail the rest of the night.
increasing mid and high clouds are expected as an upper low currently over the Southern Mississippi River Valley lifts northward into Arkansas. scattered to broken mid and high clouds are forecast over the CWA as the upper low continues to lift northward.
A strong low is shearing northeastward across Arizona ahead of the trough digging down the west coast.
302 PM MDT Tue Oct 5 2021 Not much to write home about this afternoon as our upper level ridge axis slowly moves east of the forecast area. Highs tomorrow will be a touch cooler, but will still reach 80F for most of the plains.
Otherwise, only additional chance for rain will be with isolated showers that are able to push onshore overnight in the low level E/SE flow. High clouds streaming eastward will make for mostly cloudy skies this evening, but this cloud cover should break up some overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s.
734 PM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 While strong high pressure will remain centered to our north for much of the week, clouds will be slow to clear across the region. A Rex block developing over the center of the country will maintain expansive high pressure that will be centered over Quebec for the next few days. Through this period a closed low will slowly drift northward from the mid Mississippi Valley to the Central Great Lakes as it nears the cresting point of an established upper level ridge of high pressure.
656 PM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 High pressure moves into the area today and lasts for much of the coming week.
The upper level trough, over Arizona, will eject rapidly northeast overnight. However, any shower activity from it will be after 12z over the higher terrain Not much to write home about this afternoon as our upper level ridge axis slowly moves east of the forecast area. Highs tomorrow will be a touch cooler, but will still reach 80F for most of the plains.
506 PM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 A closed low will be in place across Arkansas and driving our weather through the short term. This is allowing southerly flow into the region on the east side of the low, advecting moisture northward into the state. These will continue to some degree through the short term as the upper level low remains somewhat stationary, eventually migrating to southern Missouri by Wednesday night. Southerly flow will also keep temperatures above normal as well, with highs in the mid and upper 70s today and Wednesday, and lows staying somewhat mild in the low to mid 60s under mostly cloudy skies.
Flattening upper level high pressure ridge will be moving overhead. A large upper closed low continues to churn over the Lower MS Valley with a resulting zone of dry northerly flow aloft currently positioned over the CWA. The aforementioned upper low will shift slightly northward through Wednesday, with upper winds consequently obtaining more of a westerly component and surface flow becoming more southerly as lee troughing develops over CO.
Satellite imagery showed a large shield of stratus clouds to the north of a cut-off low over the Mid to Lower Mississippi Valley. The big cut- off upper low to our south will edge northward on Wednesday, eventually pulling showers into the region. Heading into Wednesday evening, the spotty showers should lift further north, potentially reaching near or north of the highway 30 corridor.
Quiet weather continues across the region under amplified upper-level ridging.
Upper low remains camped out over MS this afternoon. The favorable moisture channel is setup along and east of the axis which extends north of the low. On Wednesday, some west to east curvature and shear will develop to the east of the upper low.
A Pacific storm system will bring much cooler temperatures and a chance of mainly light precipitation later this week into this weekend.
647 PM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 High pressure builds into the area tomorrow and should persist through the end of the week. The next chance of showers and associated low pressure looks to hold off until this weekend. High pressure is slowly building into the region from the north, however abundant moisture will remain trapped under a subsidence inversion. High pressure will continue to build into the area tomorrow and we should see some clearing from north to south through the day with areas of sunshine. High pressure will keep conditions rather quiet and mild during this period.
By Wednesday, the upper-level low will continue to shift north across the lower Mississippi Valley near Arkansas and Tennessee, continuing to shift northeast at a faster speed as it begins to be returned back into the mean flow by a robust Pacific ridge approaching the Baja California peninsula. Light northerly winds could shift to westerly in northern zones around the Ouachita Mountains, however, the main theme of dry, near-average temperatures continues for Wednesday with afternoon highs in the lower 80s in our northeastern zones and mid-to-upper 80s expected elsewhere.
We still expect a cold front to move into eastern Oregon later tonight and then into southwest Idaho Wed into Wed evening.
513 PM MDT Tue Oct 5 2021 Water vapor shows upper ridge shifting into the Upper Midwest, with strong upper low just offshore the Pac NW. Embedded in the southwest flow in-between, a dry upper low is lifting northeast through southern ALTA, with another upper low over far southern CA. At the surface, fairly broad trof over the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains with very warm and breezy conditions across the area. Breezy southwest winds expected over northeast WY with some modest downslope winds in favored areas of the Northern Black Region as trof deepens in the lee of the Rockies ahead of ejecting upper low currently over southern CA. On Wednesday, lee trof advances into far eastern MT/WY during the afternoon as upper low/trof lifts into the Central Rockies.
738 PM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 High pressure builds into the area tomorrow and should persist through the end of the week. The next chance of showers and associated low pressure looks to hold off until this weekend. High pressure is slowly building into the region from the north, however abundant moisture will remain trapped under a subsidence inversion. High pressure will continue to build into the area tomorrow and we should see some clearing from north to south through the day with areas of sunshine. High pressure will keep conditions rather quiet and mild during this period.
612 PM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 High pressure will ridge across the region through mid week with a nearly stationary frontal boundary remaining to the south.
On the synoptic scale, a midlevel closed low is currently spinning over the Mississippi River delta region. Its impacts for the forecast area should be increased cloud cover that will result in slightly cooler temperatures today (high temps in the mid 70s) in comparison to yesterday.
1032 PM MDT Tue Oct 5 2021 Water vapor shows upper ridge shifting into the Upper Midwest, with strong upper low just offshore the Pac NW. Embedded in the southwest flow in-between, a dry upper low is lifting northeast through southern ALTA, with another upper low over far southern CA. At the surface, fairly broad trof over the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains with very warm and breezy conditions across the area. Breezy southwest winds expected over northeast WY with some modest downslope winds in favored areas of the Northern Black Region as trof deepens in the lee of the Rockies ahead of ejecting upper low currently over southern CA. On Wednesday, lee trof advances into far eastern MT/WY during the afternoon as upper low/trof lifts into the Central Rockies.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 66 76 64 76 / 90 90 70 40 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 77 65 77 64 75 / 90 80 80 60 60 Oak Ridge, TN 76 64 76 63 75 / 90 80 80 70 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 76 62 76 60 75 / 60 70 70 70 80 NC.
343 AM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021 High pressure will slowly begin to build southward into the region allowing for some clearing today. This high pressure system slowly moves eastward through the remainder of the week with a trough of low pressure to our west. This trough of low pressure brings our next chance of showers this weekend. As a result another warmer than normal night is expected tonight with lows in the 50's. Temperatures a bit warmer Thursday with highs in the 70s' with more promise than the clouds break up earlier in the day given more influence from nearby high pressure.
High pressure will build inland later in the weekend. A large closed upper low will remain over the central United States on Wednesday before slowly lifting north and weakening.
1148 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021 Light showers will continue to move across the area this evening, but dry conditions and lows in the lower 60s should prevail the rest of the night. However, a slow moving upper level low will move north into the area and bring the return of pcpn. Overnight lows should fall into the lower 60s, but mid to upper 70s for highs is expected again tomorrow. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue Wed night and then increase in coverage for Thursday as the upper level low continues to affect the area.
With a stalled front to our west and a low pressure system sliding along and ahead of the front, the southerly flow will remain for the time and period of showers and embedded storms will continue through the next 36 plus hours. The main upper low has retreated to Arkansas this morning. With the low further to our west and in the process of opening up before being ejected to the east on Thursday, we do have the potential for some stronger storms in the afternoon.
Upper low that produced the earlier fireworks is over southern Mohave County and progged to continue moving east toward the Four Corner overnight. Very active convective pattern in place through this afternoon as a closed low near San Diego lifts into the Desert Southwest and interacts with anomalous moisture and marginal instability in place. Breaks in the cloud cover and cooling mid level temps with the approach of the closed low suggest additional development will remain possible through this evening, particularly in Northwest Arizona and far southern Nevada. Drier conditions resume Wednesday as the low shifts east, however southwesterly flow aloft will result in increasing mid and high clouds by late in the day spreading in from the west.
238 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 Scattered showers occurred over much of south central Missouri overnight as an upper level low pressure system remained stationary over eastern Arkansas. Given the cloud cover and precipitation today, temperatures will be a bit cooler, with highs in the low to mid 70s. Highs on Thursday will be warmer with mid to upper 70s expected. Deep southwest flow aloft influenced by ridging along the Mississippi River Valley and long wave troughing across the intermountain west.
Except for patchy altocumulus clouds associated with a layer of mid level moisture, an upper level low drifting north up the Mississippi River Valley and an upper level ridge over Mexico into the southern high Plains maintain a dry northwesterly flow aloft. A ridge of high pressure at the surface drifting to the south will settle along and just inland of the Texas coast keeping Gulf of Mexico moisture cut off, though a subtle increase in dewpoints can be expected.
352 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 Upper level ridging will remain in place across the central US through the short term resulting in dry conditions through Thursday. A few isolated locations may even see a high brush the low 80s. Again, these lows will be about 5 to 10 degrees above normal (normals range from the upper 30s across the north to the low 40s south of I-80).
357 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 Today and tonight: A closed mid/upper low remains centered over the Mid South this morning, but it is beginning to slowly pull northward away from our region. However, the low level airmass remains largely unchanged from yesterday morning, with considerable low level moisture across the region.
354 AM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021 Isolated showers and thunderstorm chances will continue this week within a warm, humid airmass ahead of low pressure. A broad ridge riding over top of the lower Mississippi Valley low will begin to get squeezed as the upper low drifts northward. Srn stream low is expected to phase with a deepening west coast trough and lift out of the Mississippi Valley northward toward the Upper Midwest Thursday. This is especially valid for east- central OH; which will be in closer proximity to low pressure, whereas father east, increased mid-level ridging should help inhibit deep, convective development.
The low should fill and get pulled northeast Wednesday night into Thursday. Thursday's highs are currently forecast to climb back into the low 90s.