Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Weak high pressure will provide a day and a half of clear skies with warming temperatures through Thu afternoon. This is due to the weak ridge allowing a low to push through western Montana and central Idaho starting Thu afternoon and continuing Fri. The low will trigger slight chance and chance precipitation threat mainly for the ID-MT border and along the southern highlands that border UT. The clouds and a weak cold front will cool temperatures back into the 70s. The low and its cold front will increase the wind into the 15 to 25 mph range with gusts up to 30 mph for the Snake River plain, eastern Magic Valley, and ridges of the mountains and highlands, on both Thu afternoon and most of the day Fri.
(Today and tonight) Another seasonably hot day is expected across Oklahoma and north Texas as a ~595 dam mid-level ridge will be centered across the area.
239 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 A mix of clear to mostly cloudy skies was found over eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois with high pressure building into the area from the northwest. Surface analysis depicted a cold front stretching from northeast Illinois into north central Illinois, with showers and storms ongoing over much of north central into far northeast Missouri. Clouds will be slow to exit, but abundant sunshine is expected by the late morning and afternoon with high pressure building into the Midwest behind the front. With winds become light & variable, lows will be able to fall into the low to mid 60s.
The strong upper level high that has been centered over the Mid South the past few days was in the process of retrograding into the southern Plains this morning. With dew points pooling in the lower 70s ahead of the front, peak heat index values are forecast to range from 100 to 105 this afternoon.
Deep layer high pressure centered across the Mississippi River Valley is still keeping hot conditions going across the area even as of 00Z. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 98 74 95 70 95 / 0 10 10 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 95 71 93 67 93 / 0 20 10 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 96 71 92 67 94 / 0 20 10 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 93 67 88 62 90 / 10 40 20 0 10.
1244 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Key Points: * Thunderstorms are expected tonight as cold front moves through the area.
1130 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chances are likely with a Wednesday cold front. This seems the most reasonable scenario, with a ridge in place. Dry weather is expected to continue tonight with a strong ridge remaining in place. Warm advection with the strengthening ridge will hold overnight lows about 10 degrees above the averages.
A few locations have bumped up into the low 80s this afternoon. In addition to the low/mid- level warming happening Wednesday night, there is some low level moisture return moving up into the region from the south. When those two factors combine with the low level jet progged to form across the Northern Plains Wednesday night, the result is expected to be (iso'd/wdly sct'd) thunderstorm development somewhere between Fargo and Brookings in the far eastern Dakotas and far western Minnesota.
248 AM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022 A cold front arrives today with showers and thunderstorms, possibly with damaging winds and large hail. A cold front will push through the area this afternoon and tonight. The aforementioned cold front will progress through the area Wednesday night, with showers and storms expected to continue ahead of and along the front. High pressure beneath upper ridging then remains over the southern US, while an upper trough will be present in the northeast US.
High pressure will continue to retrograde southwest towards central Texas. The overall flow aloft will shift from southwest to a more westerly flow and while yesterday's surface front is currently south of our area, it is expected to retreat north today as a warm front. There is still some moisture left over that continues to spin around the high, and is expected to impact mainly the northern Panhandles today as far as precipitation chances go. For the rest of the week the high will continue to shift over central TX that will help bring temperatures up each day, especially in the south.
323 AM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022 The Lower Ohio Valley continues to sit under upper ridging and relatively high surface pressure. This has kept the region warm and dry, but expect things to change for many today as a cold front drops south through the region. CIN will begin to quickly erode, and with MLCAPE values ranging between 3,000 to 3,800 J/kg, this will make for an extremely unstable environment, so when a cold front begins working south over southern Indiana early this afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to begin developing.
147 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 The mid-level ridge will shift westward today which will displace the monsoonal moisture plume west and north of the forecast area.
253 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Key Messages: - Less humid, cooler today - Late-week shower and storm chances Cooler and Drier Today: A less humid airmass has spread across the Upper Mississippi Valley in the wake of yesterday's cold front. More seasonable temps in the upper 70s to mid 80s are expected today along with the lower humidity levels.
/Issued 1208 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022/ /Today and Tonight/ Mid level high pressure will be centered over the state and continue to dominate the weather forecast over the next few days, resulting in above normal temperatures and mostly rain-free conditions. The higher humidity values east of the I-35 corridor will yield heat index values in the 102-106 degree range, while slightly drier air west of the I-35 corridor will result in heat index values around 98-102 degrees.
1031 PM MDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Current surface analysis shows weak high pressure over WY and MT, with a cold front to the northeast of the region. Relatively quiet weather is expected through the midweek period as high pressure slowly slides over and east of the area tonight and Wednesday.
255 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees less warm today behind a weak cold front.
320 AM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022 A cold front arrives today with showers and thunderstorms, possibly with damaging winds and large hail. A cold front will push through the area this afternoon and tonight.
Tonight and Wednesday A cold front was moving through north central and central WI this afternoon, accompanied by a wind shift to the west. Temperatures were warming into the lower to middle 90s ahead of the front, and dew points in the lower to middle 70s were pooling near the boundary. Despite the arrival of the cold front and MUCAPE of 2500-3500 j/kg, the combination of capping in the 850-800 mb layer, weak/shallow convergence, and minimal upper level support was preventing convective initiation. Cooler and much less humid weather will move into the area overnight and into Wednesday, along with moderate west to northwest winds.
1154 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 (Rest of tonight) High pressure centered over north central Tennessee and abundant sunshine earlier today allowed the temperature to peak at 100 degrees at the Muscle Shoals airport and 97 degrees at the Huntsville International Airport. Models show low level advection of more moist air around the west side of the area of high pressure center into the region this evening. The end result should be very warm overnight temperatures near and west of the I-65 corridor and somewhat cooler lows further east.
116 AM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022 High pressure will prevail before a trough of low pressure develops over the region mid week. A cold front will then stall over or near the area late week into the weekend. The forecast area continues to sit under the eastern periphery of the large upper ridge.
151 AM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022 A warm frontal boundary will remain over our area into Wednesday, while a cold front approaches from the Great Lakes.
High temperatures will be similar to Tuesday, maybe a couple degrees warmer due to less cloud cover and a little bit warmer low levels. Flat upper level ridging spreads across the area tonight and southerly flow will gradually increase from west to east. This will bring warmer air into the region and lows will respond with most locations only falling into the low to mid 60s, the milder readings in central SD.
This will produce breezy winds across the lower elevations, with near windy conditions expected through the Cascade gaps.
(Today and Tonight) Warmer and little more humid this morning across Middle TN. Most models are showing dew points in the low to middle 60s for a good portion of the afternoon.
1025 PM MDT Tue Jun 21 2022 The trough that brought showers and thunderstorms to the region yesterday, has since lifted out into MT, leaving most of WY in clear skies and seasonal temperatures. 70s today across many of the basins and 50s and 60s across the higher terrain will increase by about 10 degrees Wednesday as a ridge tries to build to our south. Fairly weak zonal flow will also occur today and tomorrow, though will be a bit stronger tomorrow as the ridge builds.
The high resolution mesoscale models are hinting at similar weather conditions to yesterday, with showers and thunderstorms developing early today. A robust high pressure anchored in the southeastern United States will slowly filter drier air over most of Florida and the Keys over the next several days resulting in reduced shower and thunderstorm activity late this week.
1215 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 (Tonight through Wednesday) The main feature of note continues to be an upper level high centered over the lower Mississippi Valley. The high is beginning to rotate to a more latitudinal orientation as it begins to retrograde off to the west. Overnight lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s with light winds out of the south and mostly clear skies. Tomorrow will be a near carbon copy to today with highs once again in the upper 90s to low 100s with no real strengthening in the 850 mb thermal ridge expected.
316 AM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022 A cold front will cross the Mid Atlantic region tonight with showers and thunderstorms.
306 AM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chances are likely this afternoon and evening with a crossing cold front.
103 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 A cold front currently across Wisconsin and Iowa will settle southward into central Illinois tonight into Wednesday.
High pressure begins to build into the forecast area, this morning with a little more "cold" advection happening initially.
The POP grids were adjusted slightly to account for the latest 18z trends, which pinpoint the highest probability of precip in the northern and eastern counties tomorrow afternoon and evening. Given the higher afternoon highs however, this dropoff could occur later and may not be as drastic as previous nights. Currently, the forecast area remains under high pressure and will continue to remain under high pressure through majority of the forecast period. Temperatures today will top out in the low to mid- 90s for the entire forecast area.
155 AM MDT Wed Jun 22 2022 At the surface, weak high pressure sits centered over northwestern SD this morning.
Mid level trough then pushes further east this evening with even drier airmass and resulting less cloud cover.
158 AM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Scattered thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday as a cold front moves through the region.
139 AM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chances are likely with a Wednesday cold front. This seems the most reasonable scenario, with a ridge in place. Dry weather is expected to continue tonight with a strong ridge remaining in place. Warm advection with the strengthening ridge will hold overnight lows about 10 degrees above the averages.
1157 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022 High pressure will remain overhead overnight and then slide east of the region through Wednesday.
/NEW/ /Today and Tonight/ Mid level high pressure will be centered over the state and continue to dominate the weather forecast over the next few days, resulting in above normal temperatures and mostly rain-free conditions. The higher humidity values east of the I-35 corridor will yield heat index values in the 102-106 degree range, while slightly drier air west of the I-35 corridor will result in heat index values around 98-102 degrees.
The high resolution ensembles as well as the higher resolution operational models are showing decent instability along with a dry lower atmosphere from the surface up to around 700mb.
344 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 A surface cold front continues to shift southward across the area early this morning. Temperatures will also be cooler today, albeit still on the warm side. However, closer to the lake onshore flow will promote cooler conditions, especially over the IN shores.
531 AM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chances are likely this afternoon and evening with a crossing cold front.
A mix of clear to mostly cloudy skies was found over eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois with high pressure building into the area from the northwest. Surface analysis depicted a cold front stretching from northeast Illinois into north central Illinois, with showers and storms ongoing over much of north central into far northeast Missouri. Clouds will be slow to exit, but abundant sunshine is expected by the late morning and afternoon with high pressure building into the Midwest behind the front. With winds become light & variable, lows will be able to fall into the low to mid 60s. Discussion: Thursday-Thursday night Dry and seasonable conditions will persist through Thursday with surface to mid level ridge remaining dominant while slowly shifting east.
422 AM MDT Wed Jun 22 2022 At the surface, weak high pressure sits centered over northwestern SD this morning. Mild ridging builds over the northern plains later today into Thursday. As the high slides eastward today, return flow moves into the region.
Low temperatures will also be a few degrees warmer in the upper 50s to lower 60s across much of the state later tonight. Zonal flow aloft will transition to subtle ridging by Thursday. In addition to subtle riding a low level thermal ridge will progress through the plains centering over the Northern Plains by Thursday afternoon. A strong upper level low will strengthen east of the Canadian Rockies digging into eastern Alberta by Thursday.
627 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 - Mostly sunny today, west winds become southerly this afternoon - Weather impacts are not expected today - Warmer air moves in by Thursday - Isolated severe thunderstorms possible Thursday evening Quiet weather prevails today with mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s. With the high instability and DCAPE of over 1000 J/Kg, we could see a risk for hail and damaging wind gusts if storms are able to initiate.
An elongating ridge building in from the east has brought a broad favorable synoptic flow to continue to support increasing moisture from the south and southeast (with a weak low upstream providing a modest assist).
437 AM PDT Wed Jun 22 2022 A weak upper level low pressure system will draw mid level moisture northward across the area today with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms with the greater coverage north of San Diego County.
Strong high pressure will continue to dominate much of the south these next several days.
/issued 147 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022/ The mid-level ridge will shift westward today which will displace the monsoonal moisture plume west and north of the forecast area.
651 AM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022 A cold front will cross the Mid Atlantic region tonight with showers and thunderstorms.
Today Through Thursday Night High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern for the Natural State through the short term period.
544 AM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022 An upper level ridge building over the region will result in temperatures rising through the middle of the week and highs will be near record values. Ridging begins slowly retreating on Thursday as a backdoor cold front increases moisture and isolated to scattered showers become possible.
Garcia Previous Discussion: /Today and Tonight/ Mid level high pressure will be centered over the state and continue to dominate the weather forecast over the next few days, resulting in above normal temperatures and mostly rain-free conditions. The higher humidity values east of the I-35 corridor will yield heat index values in the 102-106 degree range, while slightly drier air west of the I-35 corridor will result in heat index values around 98-102 degrees.
With high pressure still anchored over the southern US, it's just strong enough to deflect the storm track off to the north, resulting in mostly clear skies. Thursday will see the initial return of some monsoonal moisture wrapping northward around the ridge into southern WY. At the same time, a midlevel trough will eject across central California into the Great Basin. This will put southern and western WY in favorable location for some midlevel lift ahead of the trough. Add into this an approaching trough, and the possibility of thunder increases, mainly for Sweetwater, Sublette, and Lincoln Counties. Some convection will be ongoing Thursday evening as a Pacific trough and cold front approach the area.
This has been anticipated for the last several days as an area of high pressure to the east and a low to our west force monsoonal moisture into our neck of the woods. An inverted trough is currently rotating around the high pressure and is causing all the overnight convection to our south. While most convection usually dies down after sunset due to increasing stability and lack of daytime heating, short range models are indicating some stronger convection continuing overnight as the trough moves through. Initially, convection will fire over the higher terrain and as the afternoon wears on, one of these waves will cause a slight uptick in coverage with another wave moving through around midnight which looks to bring another round of convection.
Behind the wave, Thursday will be cooler and dry. For Wednesday, the highs will be in the upper 70s and 80s.
Highs on Thursday will be in the low to mid 90s instead of the triple digits.
558 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees less warm today behind a weak cold front.
Southwest flow develops Thursday as an upper trough settles along the Canadian border with a weak cold front pushing into the Northern Rockies.
604 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 - Cooler temperatures today and Thursday - Periods of shower and thunder chances Thursday night through the Weekend.
531 AM MDT Wed Jun 22 2022 A building upper-level ridge should promote a warming trend across southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle through Thurs afternoon. Ridging aloft will very much remain intact.
(This afternoon through Thursday) Hot and dry conditions will remain in place for this afternoon as high pressure remains the dominant feature.
Despite a strong upper ridge over the area, a few showers and thunderstorms may develop or move into parts of northeast Oklahoma near the Kansas border late this afternoon and evening.
So still on the warmer side, but dewpoints should remain in the 50s, making it overall a rather pleasant summer day. Eventually expect enough convergence along a northward- moving warm front for additional storms to develop, most likely south of I-80.
The strong upper level high that has been centered over the Mid South the past few days was in the process of retrograding into the southern Plains this morning.
520 AM MDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Warm and mostly dry conditions are expected today as high pressure remains in control. A cold front will move through Thursday afternoon and evening, which will bring a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms as it moves through.
High pressure will continue to dominate today and most of tomorrow.
The Lower Ohio Valley continues to sit under upper ridging and relatively high surface pressure. This has kept the region warm and dry, but expect things to change for many today as a cold front drops south through the region. CIN will begin to quickly erode, and with MLCAPE values ranging between 3,000 to 3,800 J/kg, this will make for an extremely unstable environment, so when a cold front begins working south over southern Indiana early this afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to begin developing.
Upper level zonal flow this morning will be replaced by weak ridging this afternoon and tonight, with the ridge building even more during the day Thursday. At the surface, high pressure currently over the region will begin to get pushed eastward this afternoon as low pressure approaches from the west. May see a better chance for storms Thursday afternoon as even warmer air gets ushered into the region ahead of the approaching front. High temperatures today will be in the 80s, with lows tonight in the lower to mid 60s. Highs on Thursday will be in the lower to mid 90s.
642 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 A surface cold front continues to shift southward across the area early this morning. Temperatures will also be cooler today, albeit still on the warm side. However, closer to the lake onshore flow will promote cooler conditions, especially over the IN shores. Even cooler weather (in the 70s) is anticipated near the lake, however, due to persistent onshore flow.
505 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 (Today) This morning is a bit warmer and more humid than the previous couple. A cold front dropping southeast through the upper Midwest was producing clusters of thunderstorms in MO into eastern KS. High temperatures will once again hit 100F at KMSL, upper 90s at most valley locations, and upper 80s to lower 90s atop the higher plateaus in our eastern counties.
High pressure continues to persist across much of the southern CONUS. The will be some "cool" spots in the eastern-most counties along the GA line that may only top out in the mid 90s thanks to some cooler northeasterly flow, but even those "cooler" locations will be running above normal for this time of year. With the deep-layer ridging in place and associated subsidence, any showers/storms that do develop will likely be short-lived and remain very isolated in coverage.
Thanks to the overnight cloud cover and additional moisture in the atmosphere, temperatures are noticeably warmer compared to the last couple nights where temperatures at some of the higher elevation locations reached freezing or near freezing levels. The high pressure system over Texas will progress in its journey towards the Southwest Region over the next few days.
Mid level trough then pushes further east this evening with even drier airmass and resulting less cloud cover. Surface ridging in place by tonight with light and variable winds.
- Mostly sunny today, west winds become southerly this afternoon - Weather impacts are not expected today - Warmer air moves in by Thursday - Isolated severe thunderstorms possible Thursday evening Quiet weather prevails today with mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s. With the high instability and DCAPE of over 1000 J/Kg, we could see a risk for hail and damaging wind gusts if storms are able to initiate.
632 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 (Today and Tonight) Warmer and little more humid this morning across Middle TN. Most models are showing dew points in the low to middle 60s for a good portion of the afternoon.
Dew points are forecast to be in the low to mid 60s this afternoon, so no big concern for heat index today as peak values are only in the mid 90s.
525 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Key Messages: - Less humid, cooler today - Late-week shower and storm chances Cooler and Drier Today: A less humid airmass has spread across the Upper Mississippi Valley in the wake of yesterday's cold front. More seasonable temps in the upper 70s to mid 80s are expected today along with the lower humidity levels.
(Rest of Today) High pressure remains entrenched over central Tennessee and northern Alabama this morning. Temperatures after dropping into the mid 60s to lower 70s have climbed into the lower 80s in most locations to around 90 degrees in the Quad cities area at 9 AM.
331 AM MDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Warm and mostly dry conditions are expected today as high pressure remains in control. A cold front will move through Thursday afternoon and evening, which will bring a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms as it moves through.