Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A low pressure system is currently just north of St. From now until sunset tomorrow, this closed upper low will get pushed to the northeast until it's over Lake Michigan. Believe with all the low level moisture it will likely be more low stratus with areas of fog, but this is also dependent on where there is extra moisture from rainfall today and areas of clear skies tonight. Expect a foggy start to an otherwise warm, dry, and sunny weekend as high pressure builds into the region.
/Issued 253 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021/ The upper level low that has been persistent to our east has now lifted into the mid-Mississippi valley, with mid level heights beginning to rise over the southern plains.
Ingested the latest temperature and dewpoint obs and interpolated through to 08/12Z, when morning lows will range from the low to mid 60s across the ArkLaTex before rebounding into the lower 90s Friday afternoon.
722 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021 Closed upper level low, currently spinning over AR (per latest watervapor satellite imagery), will get nudged north/northeast over the next couple days. thanks in part to a 300 mb jetlet moving northward in the lee of the low. The low will gradually work into the mean upper level flow, kicking east Friday night. With placement/movement of the low, higher pcpn chances will generally hold across WI. The bulk of the upper level forcing holds there, which will also be fed by the low level jet/moisture transport. Associated warm front looks to push northward across the area later Sat while system's cool front edges in from the west by 06z or so Sun. Could see some shower activity along/north of the warm front.
High pressure over the area will maintain VFR conditions through the forecast period. Mid level ridging will build overhead this weekend, providing a healthy dose of subsidence to the region. At the surface, high pressure will slide off to the east, maintaining an easterly onshore flow.
/28/ Quiet afternoon across the region with no precip and fair weather cu around and temps mostly in the mid 80s with a few locations warmer/cooler. Looks like the deep mixing and warmer afternoons are distributing the boundary layer moisture enough to reduce these chances. For Friday, basically a copy of today but ad a couple degrees on the highs. /CME/ As we go from the end of the week into the weekend, guidance shows a weak upper level trough beginning to break down as it propagates east. This will keep rain chances fairly nonexistent throughout the weekend, while temperatures may be slightly above normal, ranging in the high 80s to 90. Despite the higher temps, dewpoints look to be in the low to mid 60s, so luckily muggy conditions will most likely not be an issue throughout the weekend.
Increasing south winds will push temperatures up into the upper 80s over southeast Kansas and western Missouri and the lower 80s over the eastern Ozarks.
1034 PM EDT Thu Oct 7 2021 High pressure will generally remain in control of our weather tonight. Mainly fair and dry weather with above normal temps can be expected tonight, as high pressure will remain in control of the region. Closed upper level low across northern Illinois on Friday will slowly drift northeast across eastern Michigan through Friday night. moisture starved front through a well established ridge that has been part of a highly amplified pattern for the past several days.
The upper low now centered in central Illinois continues to make northern progress and will transition into an open trough tonight. So far, the highest amounts seen by MRMS has been around 0. A couple isolated, brief showers are possible mainly along the plateau on Friday as the trough axis slides east of the area.
Even with that, broader ridging from the northeast and Atlantic along with lower pressure in the Caribbean has resulted in gentle to moderate easterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. Despite a small low pressure system embedded under ridging over the eastern United States, the local pressure gradient remains moderate.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s. Weak area of low pressure will linger off the South Carolina coast, with E/SE winds over the waters gradually veering overnight and becoming W/SW north of Sebastian Inlet and S/SW across the Treasure Coast waters.
An upper level ridge will continue to build throughout Oklahoma and Texas, which will help promote the dry conditions throughout the region.
615 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021 Another quiet TAF period across the CWA as high pressure remains in control.
These showers are part of a low pressure system that has split off from the front that pushed through the area earlier this week, putting southern Oregon and northern California into a split flow pattern between two areas of low pressure.
739 PM EDT Thu Oct 7 2021 During the next 24 hours an upper lower shifts from the Mid- Mississippi valley to the Great Lakes with troughiness initially over the central Gulf coastal states swinging into the southeast US. Ridging aloft FL and the Bahamas retrogrades westward across the Gulf of Mexico. in New England stretches down the eastern seaboard to FL while an area of weak low pressure drifts off the Carolina coast. High pressure across the waters gives way to a frontal boundary settling south early in the weekend. Then high pressure moves back in.
356 AM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021 The approach and passage of a low pressure system will bring periodic rain chances through Saturday. Persistent upper low will lift toward the western Great Lakes today. Forcing and upper jet dynamics will wane with the weakening low Saturday, which will reduce precipitation chances, but the passage of the trough axis and diurnal heating should still promote sct showers/iso tstm through the afternoon.
Otherwise, the upper low over northern Illinois will continue to lift NE today and should cross Lake Michigan tonight. Weak trofiness will extend SSE across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and a disturbance swinging through the trof this afternoon could spark convection.
Finally the upper level low has exited stage right and honestly is not welcomed back after days of rain and flooding. Drier air has begun to filter into the entire area as upper level ridging builds in the place of the upper trough. For now no thoughts on a dense fog advisory given the lower uncertainty and overall drier air, but will have to monitor trends tonight. The forecast will mainly be a temperature forecast and given the dry air aloft, clear skies, and overall subsidence, this is typically when temperatures tend to end up on the higher side of guidance.
305 AM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021 Mid/upper level circulation over northern Illinois will very slowly open up and advance into southern Lower Michigan by Saturday morning, as the positive tilted longwave trough moves over the Rockies, acting as the kicker. The 850-700 MB theta-e ridge axis overhead will be slowly sliding east, reaching Lake Huron by the end of the day. With the negative tilted trough approaching, and based off the bulk of the CAMs, low categorical pops seem appropriate for today, but plenty of dry periods intermingled as well.
Starting off with Saturday night, showers and thunderstorms are expected as upper low move across the region.
Even though the upper trough we've been dealing with is pulling away from the area, I still think it could tap into the moisture and provide a few showers this afternoon.
A long wave trough was passing through the two state area tonight and the latest ir satl was showing some mid and high level clouds moving into the se portions of the region. A split upper level trough pattern will continue over the region tonight through Friday before the trough moves off to the east on Saturday. The southern portion of the trough will be the dominate feature as it moves into California Friday and then into the Great Basin Saturday. A southwest flow ahead of the trough axis will advect some moisture across far eastern Oregon late tonight and Friday generating a few light showers. A brief ridging pattern will follow the trough passage on Saturday for overall dry conditions. Some areas of near freezing temperatures will be possible again tonight with areas of frost but no freeze warnings expected.
(Today through Saturday afternoon) Quiet and dry weather continues for the region as ridging remains dominant. High temperatures today are expected to be well above normal with heights increasing under the upper level ridge and with the low-level thermal ridge centered over the western part of the region. No precipitation is expected due to subsidence under the ridge. The low-level thermal ridge will shift slightly further east on Saturday and this should help to nudge temperatures a degree or two warmer across the region.
The high-res guidance in hinting at it again, with very light winds and mostly clear skies. Weak ridging is moving ahead of a storm system that will bring a cold front to the region Saturday. but still into the high 70s.
So with loss of daytime heating the activity will diminish and drier air will filter in on the backside of the upper low tonight. However, a majority of the deterministic models develop a warm front along the I-70 corridor Friday and gradually lift it northward. Despite the warm front, surface winds will begin to pickup from the south, thus highs will begin to moderate and will be at least 10 degrees above normal, in the upper 70s to mid 80s on Friday, then in the mid to upper 80s on Saturday. Byrd Latest cluster analysis is indicating a slightly slower, thus warmer solution with this system.
/Issued 253 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021/ The upper level low that has been persistent to our east has now lifted into the mid-Mississippi valley, with mid level heights beginning to rise over the southern plains. Quickly expanding low level thermal ridge into Friday will mark a transition to much above normal temperatures Friday and Saturday both, with some downslope component to low level winds and no substantial increase in dew points expected with sfc ridging over the western Gulf.
Currently, a cold front extended from the Turtle Mountains south southeast to just east of Bismarck. Later this afternoon and this evening, as the front meanders slowly eastward, there will probably be some increase in the shower activity east of the Highway 83 corridor. Lows tonight will range from the lower 40s to lower 50s. It will however, provide sufficient forcing for an area of widespread showers, and possibly some thunder Friday night through Saturday as an upper level trough propagates from the the western U. With the upper low closing off over the forecast area on Saturday, the shower and possible thunderstorm activity will remain over the forecast area through Saturday, and depending on the speed of the upper low, possibly into Saturday night.
1254 AM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021 The approach and passage of a low pressure system will bring periodic rain chances through Saturday. Persistent upper low will lift toward the western Great Lakes today. Forcing and upper jet dynamics will wane with the weakening low Saturday, which will reduce precipitation chances, but the passage of the trough axis and diurnal heating should still promote sct showers/iso tstm through the afternoon.
Temperatures are expected to soar into the lower 90s across the Caprock and near 100 deg F across the Rolling Plains this afternoon, with temperatures upwards of 20 deg F above climatological norms. The PBL will decouple quickly this evening as the low-level jet intensifies to around 45 kt ahead of an approaching mid/upper-level trough pivoting over the western CONUS. Conditions will remain breezy overnight as a result and with a thin cirrus deck streaming over the CWA, radiative cooling processes will be limited with temperatures running a few degrees warmer than the previous nights. The lowering of heights can be attributed to the approaching upper level system but thicknesses will be a touch higher than expected for Friday resulting in even warmer temperatures.
900 PM PDT Thu Oct 7 2021 A Pacific trough of low pressure will interact with an atmospheric river to bring rain, mostly light to moderate, late tonight and Friday.
341 AM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021 High pressure will continue to provide dry and mild weather again today, but low clouds will remain trapped under the high. Despite this mild air mass will produce high temperatures in the low and mid 70s. Highs from the low 60s in the Catskills to upper 60s in the urban valleys and Finger Lakes.
Tonight will be dry, and most models and high res CAMs indicate the daytime hours on Friday will be dry as well, likely due to the the weak ridging over the area, with H7 temps between +4C and +6C (possibly enough of a CAP for this time of year). Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop along the cold front as it pushes across the CWA.
1034 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021 Closed upper level low, currently spinning over AR (per latest watervapor satellite imagery), will get nudged north/northeast over the next couple days. thanks in part to a 300 mb jetlet moving northward in the lee of the low. The low will gradually work into the mean upper level flow, kicking east Friday night. With placement/movement of the low, higher pcpn chances will generally hold across WI. The bulk of the upper level forcing holds there, which will also be fed by the low level jet/moisture transport. Associated warm front looks to push northward across the area later Sat while system's cool front edges in from the west by 06z or so Sun. Could see some shower activity along/north of the warm front.
(Today and tonight) A mid/upper level ridge will strengthen over the area today, resulting in hot and dry weather, with above normal temperatures. Temperatures will range from the lower 90s along the I-10 corridor, to the mid and upper 90s across the Big Country.
BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 61 81 62 82 / 10 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 61 79 60 81 / 40 20 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 77 60 79 60 80 / 30 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 59 77 56 78 / 80 60 30 0 0.
Upper level low pressure continues to pull out of the region.
Upper low currently centered over northern Illinois will transition to an open wave as it continues to drift northeast across the Great Lakes region through the period. Chances for showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm should remain just across far western New York today with very little eastward movement to the upper low and the main moisture axis.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): High pressure continues to build across Deep South Texas into the weekend, as a 500mb trough digs into the Rockies and another works through the Great Lakes. Heat Indices top off in the low to mid 90s Friday and mid to upper 90s on Saturday.
Upper low centered near STL will continue to lift north and away from the area, with the pattern amplifying with upper ridging moving into the region for Friday and Saturday.
331 AM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021 Low pressure will meander north along the Mississippi Valley and into the Great Lakes through Saturday.
143 AM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021 High pressure will generally remain in control of our weather overnight. Mainly fair and dry weather with above normal temps can be expected tonight, as high pressure will remain in control of the region. Closed upper level low across northern Illinois on Friday will slowly drift northeast across eastern Michigan through Friday night. moisture starved front through a well established ridge that has been part of a highly amplified pattern for the past several days.
The upper level low will continue to lift northward today, toward the Great Lakes, as its associated trough axis moves eastward into Georgia by this evening. Northwesterly upper level flow will usher in drier air as high pressure and northerly winds establish themselves at the surface. A dry forecast will continue through Saturday as upper level ridging shifts across the Mississippi River Valley.
Tonight and Friday The upper trough over Southern Illinois is forecast to lift slowly northeast to Lake Michigan by Friday afternoon and produce periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms.
646 AM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021 Periodic showers will increase in coverage early in the forecast with a few embedded thunderstorms possible as vort lobe pivots N to NNW around low pressure centered to the west. Mid/upper level circulation over northern Illinois will very slowly open up and advance into southern Lower Michigan by Saturday morning, as the positive tilted longwave trough moves over the Rockies, acting as the kicker. The 850-700 MB theta-e ridge axis overhead will be slowly sliding east, reaching Lake Huron by the end of the day. With the negative tilted trough approaching, and based off the bulk of the CAMs, low categorical pops seem appropriate for today, but plenty of dry periods intermingled as well.
636 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021 (Today and tonight) A mid/upper level ridge will strengthen over the area today, resulting in hot and dry weather, with above normal temperatures. Temperatures will range from the lower 90s along the I-10 corridor, to the mid and upper 90s across the Big Country.
Water vapor imagery shows high pressure to our southeast with the center of the high over northern Mexico. A trough is beginning to move into the western U. High clouds are moving through thanks to southwest flow out ahead of the trough.
/issued 252 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): High pressure continues to build across Deep South Texas into the weekend, as a 500mb trough digs into the Rockies and another works through the Great Lakes. Heat Indices top off in the low to mid 90s Friday and mid to upper 90s on Saturday.
High pressure will continue to build in from the west bringing dry conditions with high temperatures remaining about about 5 degrees above average for highs and near average for lows with clear skies and calm winds. Upper level trough will slowly move through the Ohio and TN valleys today brining unsettled weather to the southeast and Ohio valley. 591 upper level ridge will remain overhead through the weekend slowly building eastward as upper level trough finally moves off the eastern seaboard on Saturday.
A Pacific storm system will bring much cooler temperatures and a chance of mainly light precipitation today.
1000 AM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021 Periodic rain chances are expected through Saturday with low pressure passage. Ascent will increase as the wave traverses S to NNE starting late this afternoon through tonight, with convergence along this trough providing the main focus for mainly sct showers/iso tstms. Abundant cloud cover will limit instability while jet dynamics wane through the day was the upper low weakens as it lifts farther norther. High pressure to the east and upper ridging will quickly develop behind the exiting trough Saturday night.
One more quiet day is expected across western Kansas as an upper level ridge of high pressure continues over the central High Plains. A weak disturbance moving through the ridge is forcing a weak frontal boundary or wind shift southward through the area. Locations along and just north of the Oklahoma border could top out in the lower to possibly mid 90s as that area could see a return to southerly/southwesterly winds later this afternoon. The upper ridge shifts eastward tonight. An upper level trough currently moving into northern California will continue moving east today while another disturbance on its heels drops into northern California tonight. The initial disturbance will move out of the Rockies into the northern Plains Saturday afternoon and evening with an associated cold front moving south across western and central Kansas Saturday night.
Mid-level ridging over the state of Texas will maintain warm and dry conditions today and Saturday. With weak onshore flow at the surface, moisture will gradually increase in the lower levels. This should begin to lead to conditions favorable for patchy fog this morning across the Coastal Plains , with slightly better chances Saturday morning, as lows dip once again into the low-to-mid 60s inland.
One piece to the evolution of this trough later tonight is the potential for snow down to 6500 feet towards Lemhi County. The weather models have trended a little wetter and cooler with a possible brief, mid- level circulation over Yellowstone by daybreak Saturday.
455 AM MDT Fri Oct 8 2021 At the upper levels, models show the upper trough situated over the west coast, and SW flow aloft our region.
625 AM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021 The approach and passage of a low pressure system will bring periodic rain chances through Saturday. Persistent upper low will lift toward the western Great Lakes today. Forcing and upper jet dynamics will wane with the weakening low Saturday, which will reduce precipitation chances, but the passage of the trough axis and diurnal heating should still promote sct showers/iso tstm through the afternoon.
One differnt piece to the evolution of this trough later tonight is the potential for snow down to 6500 feet in southern Lemhi County. The weather models have trended a little wetter and cooler with a possible brief, mid-level circulation over Yellowstone by daybreak Saturday.
315 AM MDT Fri Oct 8 2021 At the upper levels, models show the upper trough situated over the west coast, and SW flow aloft our region.
736 AM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021 The approach and passage of a low pressure system will bring periodic rain chances through Saturday. Persistent upper low will lift toward the western Great Lakes today. Forcing and upper jet dynamics will wane with the weakening low Saturday, which will reduce precipitation chances, but the passage of the trough axis and diurnal heating should still promote sct showers/iso tstm through the afternoon.
510 AM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021 The approach and passage of a low pressure system will bring periodic rain chances through Saturday. Persistent upper low will lift toward the western Great Lakes today. Forcing and upper jet dynamics will wane with the weakening low Saturday, which will reduce precipitation chances, but the passage of the trough axis and diurnal heating should still promote sct showers/iso tstm through the afternoon.
The axis of an eastern states upper trof shifts east of the forecast area today followed by upper ridging over the Plains building into the lower/mid Mississippi River valley through Saturday. Lows tonight will be in the lower 60s inland with mid to upper 60s at the coast.
West of the TUTT, dry and stable air over the Western Caribbean gives way to deep, mean-layer ridging over the Yucatan and Central America. The 12Z RAOBS from FL noted very little change to the low to mid level heights, although falling heights aloft highlight the approaching long wave trough digging into the southeastern United States and northern Florida. A high pressure cell over the western North Atlantic and New England will weaken gradually today through Saturday. A weak trough of low pressure off the southeastern United States may extend to Florida this weekend, increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
333 PM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021 Quiet weather will persist through the weekend as upper ridging builds into the region from northern Mexico.
343 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021 A weakened low level ridge axis reaches west from the Bahamas across the Florida Keys and South Florida.
A gradual clearing of cloud cover is anticipated late this morning and afternoon across most areas except the high terrain of Eastern Tennessee and southwest Virginia. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 60 81 63 82 / 10 10 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 60 79 59 81 / 30 10 10 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 78 59 79 60 81 / 20 10 10 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 72 59 77 55 79 / 60 30 20 10 10.
A low pressure system moving over the Great Basin will continue to push rain showers northward over portions of the Northern Rockies today. A brief dry and warm spell will develop over the Northern Rockies on Saturday, as high pressure quickly traverses the region.