Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Weak lift associated with the upper low centered over central Missouri early this morning is leading to very isolated pockets of very light showers. Isolated diurnal shower activity--and perhaps a few thunderstorms--will be possible today given some weak instability, with the highest thunderstorm chances over the eastern Ozarks. Lows tonight will generally be in the low to mid 60s.
High pressure will gradually ease its grip heading into mid-week.
1052 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Bermuda high pressure extends into the the area for most of the week. A cold front approaches from the north this weekend. Bermuda high pressure/ridging across the east will continue to dominate the weather pattern through midweek. A mild/muggy night is expected for tonight with lows in the low to mid 70s. Very little rain chances on Tuesday with high pressure building further to the west, but still cannot rule out a stray afternoon shower or storm. Another hot day Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 90s. Lows Tuesday night will range from the low to mid 70s once again.
633 AM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 The vertically stacked system centered overhead will continue to slowly move out of the region over the next 24 to 36 hours, as the upper level closed low opens up and lifts out towards the Great Lakes. As for high temperatures today they will remain about 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year, in the low 70s to low 80s. Then on Tuesday, most of the low level moisture and forcing will be well east of the forecast area.
Temperatures will cool in the SJV from north to south each day this week as the ridge shifts southeast and weakens. Ensemble guidance from both the ECM and GFS are progging the high pressure center, that has brought us the heat wave over the past few days, will be drifting southeast and weakening. A trough of low pressure is forecast to develop off the CENCAL coast tomorrow and increase the onshore flow through the Delta.
645 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 A strong Bermuda high pressure over the western Atlantic will bring a warm, and moist southerly flow across NC through late week.
639 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Bermuda high pressure extends into the the area for most of the week. A cold front approaches from the north this weekend. Bermuda high pressure will continue to build across the local area today, leading to a very warm and mainly dry day across the area.
/Issued 302 AM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021/ An upper level high was centered over southern Nevada. An upper level low was centered over northeast Missouri. The upper level low will slowly move northeast and will get caught up in another upper level trough moving across the northern plains by tonight, meanwhile, the high will not move much. On Tuesday, the flow aloft becomes northwest as the upper high breaks down some, but the flow is so weak, that the mountain convection may not make into our area before it falls apart with the setting sun.
758 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Typical summer time pattern continues with the Bermuda High will ridging into the forecast area during the week. A weakening upper trough will linger over the MS Valley as an upper ridge builds into the Mid Atlantic. At the surface, Bermuda high pressure will continue to ridge into the southeastern states. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with overnight lows in the low 70s.
503 AM MDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Current surface analysis shows warm front over western SD, with low pressure over eastern MT and a cold front stretching back to the west-southwest across southern MT. Cold front over MT will move slowly southeast across the area later today and tonight.
/issued 304 AM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Subsidence continues across Deep South Texas with strong mid-level ridging occurring over the southwestern US and the western Atlantic. For Tuesday, the combined influences of a mid-level longwave trough moving across the Mississippi Valley and an inverted mid-level trough over northern Mexico will lead to some mid-level disturbances developing over the Gulf.
616 AM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 A low pressure system continues to slowly make its way across eastern MO. A large high pressure across the southeast CONUS is impeding its exit. A separate high pressure builds across the Great Plains pushing the low out of MO during the day today. Light showers continue to rotate around the low with much of the activity being concentrated to areas east of I-35. Thanks to this ridging across the area, we will be given a couple days to dry out.
Chances for storms will increase this afternoon as a warm front moves north.
717 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over the central Mississippi River valley.
There is less cloud cover to the southeast of Pittsburgh, but this area is further under the mid- level ridge. Eastern ridge will amplify over the region today. These height rises will work to nudge the warm front further north. This would place the highest probability for convection this afternoon in portions of Ohio and northern PA. The ridge will hold in place on Tuesday which will push the deepest moisture north and west of the region.
526 AM MDT Mon Jul 12 2021 At the beginning of the short term period, the CWA has a northerly flow aloft due to an upper air ridge to the west and an upper air trough to the east. During the day, the trough moves eastward which will turn the flow over the CWA north-northwesterly as the influence of the ridge increases. The high looks to move a bit eastward during the day turning the winds southeasterly. Monday's daytime high temperatures look to be a bit warmer than the previous weekend highs as they range from the upper 80s to the lower 90s. On Monday night, models show the upper air ridge increasing its control over the flow aloft which changes to a more northwesterly direction overnight. Monday night's low temperatures are expected to be in the lower 60s.
414 AM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 An upper level low continues to spin over the region today and will bring more showers and storms to the Mid South. Expect more of the same for Tuesday, and we finally will see a small decrease in rain chances by mid week as the upper low pulls away.
112 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Bermuda high pressure extends into the the area for the rest of the week. A cold front approaches from the north late this weekend. Bermuda high pressure/ridging across the east will continue to dominate the weather pattern through midweek. A mild/muggy night is expected for tonight with lows in the low to mid 70s. Very little rain chances on Tuesday with high pressure building further to the west, but still cannot rule out a stray afternoon shower or storm. Another hot day Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 90s. Lows Tuesday night will range from the low to mid 70s once again.
1151 AM MDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Its been a quiet and slightly cooler night across the Western Slope with current temperature trending up to 3 degrees cooler than this time yesterday across the north and by as much as 15 degrees down south. This afternoon will see the dominating area of high pressure persist with its center drifting further southwest towards SoCal by the day's end. Conditions will improve as we reach midweek thanks to increased moisture and the breakdown of the upper level ridge.
1115 AM MDT Mon Jul 12 2021 At the beginning of the short term period, the CWA has a northerly flow aloft due to an upper air ridge to the west and an upper air trough to the east. During the day, the trough moves eastward which will turn the flow over the CWA north-northwesterly as the influence of the ridge increases. The high looks to move a bit eastward during the day turning the winds southeasterly. Monday's daytime high temperatures look to be a bit warmer than the previous weekend highs as they range from the upper 80s to the lower 90s. On Monday night, models show the upper air ridge increasing its control over the flow aloft which changes to a more northwesterly direction overnight. Monday night's low temperatures are expected to be in the lower 60s.
An intensifying subtropical anticyclone centered near Bermuda will accelerate gradient flow east to west, from the Turks and Caicos to the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
1229 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Weak lift associated with the upper low centered over central Missouri early this morning is leading to very isolated pockets of very light showers. Isolated diurnal shower activity--and perhaps a few thunderstorms--will be possible today given some weak instability, with the highest thunderstorm chances over the eastern Ozarks. Lows tonight will generally be in the low to mid 60s.
226 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 A surface boundary will combine with short wave energy rounding the top of the western ridge to generate some scattered showers/thunderstorms near the Black Hills tonight.
The warm front is advancing nicely through the area at this hour. Any lingering showers and storms from Tuesday afternoon will diminish overnight as the trough aloft finally exit.
An upper trof which extends from Texas to the intersection of Wisconsin/Illinois/Iowa gradually weakens while advancing slowly eastward to extend from the lower Mississippi River valley to the Great Lakes. Expect that strong storms will be possible along and ahead of the outflow boundary, with severe storm potential contingent on whether or not the higher instability values are achieved.
The forecast remains largely unchanged for the short term with mid- level high over the Western CONUS, Low pressure over the Mississippi River with troughing extending into Southeast Texas. The trough will extend close enough to our area for promote general instability.
A few stronger storms cannot be ruled out as an upper low east of the area drifts westward with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures. Overnight lows tonight will generally be in the lower 70s.
1227 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Current satellite shows the upper level low moving off to the east this morning. This orientation will provide another day with light northerly to easterly winds with warmer temperatures but remaining below normal for this time of year. Rain chances for the short term look to remain minimal as ridging will be building into the region as the low pressure system exits.
Extensive cu field remains across portions of northwest AR and far northeast OK this morning as the upper low remains over northern MO.
So far the low clouds have limited the destabilization today.
Smoke will keep temperatures from reaching their full potential, but hot temperatures are still forecast with highs reaching 100 to 105 in the lower valleys. An upper trough moving by to our north will push a weak front through tonight. Temperatures on Tuesday will be a couple degrees cooler with increased northwest winds.
This is due to a wind shift behind the dry sfc front and upper trough marching through the Dakotas today and tonight. On Tuesday the ridge aloft will briefly regain some prominence before it is suppressed by an upper low Tuesday night. Given the timing of the ridge, expect temperatures to warm into the 80s to lower 90s on Tuesday afternoon.
Increasing moisture today will lead to an uptick in monsoonal thunderstorm activity beginning later this morning over the high terrain. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm coverage then increases into the lower elevations by mid to late afternoon per continued high resolution model guidance. The forecast period will feature a significant uptick in monsoon activity as high pressure weakens and ample moisture surges in from the south. Expect more widespread thunderstorms along the Rim and pushing into the lower elevations compared to yesterday. Due to continued hot temperatures while the high pressure breaks down, the potential for severe thunderstorms will continue with damaging winds and hail as the primary threats where stronger storms set up. Convective activity will redevelop over the high terrain today then move southwest into the lower valleys through the late afternoon and early evening.
Tomorrow should be slightly warmer as an upper level low shifts off to the north.
Temperatures along the boundary are in the low 80s with dew points around 60.
Given the high based nature of these showers, little in the way of precipitation is anticipated. Cloud cover will help keep temperatures slightly cooler on Tuesday, but only by a few degrees.
High pressure aloft will extend slightly eastward tonight and into tomorrow morning. High pressure aloft will dominate much of the forecast area. The lee trough will deepen slightly through the day. With a low level warm air advection in place, expect highs to be warmer tomorrow.
1102 AM MDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Current surface analysis shows warm front over western SD, with low pressure over eastern MT and a cold front stretching back to the west-southwest across southern MT. Cold front over MT will move slowly southeast across the area later today and tonight.
With the closed upper cyclone centered to the west, broad scale ascent will remain in place across the TN Valley region through the afternoon/evening. An upper low remains just westward which places the region in the favorable area for sct/num convection this afternoon/evening. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 85 70 89 70 / 60 60 40 40 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 86 68 87 69 / 40 60 40 50 20 Oak Ridge, TN 69 85 68 88 68 / 40 60 40 40 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 87 66 86 65 / 40 70 50 50 20.
The low level flow also turns more easterly so some of these storms could move southeast to northwest.
The cold front is just arriving in the Bismarck area, with winds at the ASOS shifting to northwest and getting a bit breezy. This in response to a mid level short wave trough and a surface cold front crossing the area. For tonight, surface ridging from the northwest but the mid level flow is a bit wavy and so scattered mid level clouds should be expected to be passing through. Guidance remains consistent in that the higher chances for rain are south, and highest into northern South Dakota where an MCS could very well form.
Some CU have formed over the higher terrain and with a weak wave moving through there is still a chance for some shower and thunderstorm development through this evening.
Upper low along the east central Fl coast will continue to drift north reaching the Carolinas on Tuesday. Convection should end this evening over land but may continue over the coastal waters as the low traverses the area. An east to southeast steering flow will continue on Tuesday as the subtropical ridge axis remains to the north.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer on Tuesday with the lack of rain showers and decreasing clouds during the afternoon, but still around 5 degrees below normal.
1230 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 A low pressure system continues to slowly make its way across eastern MO. A large high pressure across the southeast CONUS is impeding its exit. A separate high pressure builds across the Great Plains pushing the low out of MO during the day today. Light showers continue to rotate around the low with much of the activity being concentrated to areas east of I-35. Thanks to this ridging across the area, we will be given a couple days to dry out.
That flow, on the wrn periphery of a wrn Atlantic/E Coast ridge, will continue to support isold to sct convection this aftn and eve as weak shrtwv ripples move through the flow. Better coverage can still be expected from the I 80 corridor and nwd where a warm front is indicated extending frm Great Lakes low pres. A closed upper low, currently over Missouri, will begin to fill and lift towards the Great Lakes tonight and into Tuesday. In response, the ridge on the Atlantic Seaboard will strengthen a bit, which will also edge the frontal boundary further north into Michigan and New York State.
On Tuesday, lingered a chance of showers and storms during the morning until the upper trough moves far enough away.
A broad belt of modest SSW flow on the east side of a large upper level low has resulted in effective bulk shear values of 20-30kts, so a few stronger to marginally severe storms will be possible today, particularly in advance of areas that see ample clearing that results in localized instability maximums. By Tuesday, our persistent upper level low (ULL) will get picked up and carried off to the northeast as a broad trough approaches. By Tuesday evening, scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to wane with the setting sun and as the upper level trough axis edges east of our area.
Latest guidance hinting at possible light fog redeveloping across the higher terrain of AR around daybreak and added a mention of MVFR conditions to latest TAFs based on MOS and gridded data. Extensive cu field remains across portions of northwest AR and far northeast OK this morning as the upper low remains over northern MO.
South winds will pick up a bit on Tuesday as pressure falls occur across the high plains, especially across the west.
A nearby upper low continues to spin away in MO which will bring continued chances for showers across parts of NE OK and NW AR this afternoon. Coverage is expected to be lower than yesterday given that the low is starting to weaken and is slowly moving away. Storms appear to be less likely than yesterday thanks to the upper low weakening/mid levels starting to warm.
356 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Atlantic high pressure will extend across the area through this weekend. Late Afternoon: Aloft, water vapor imagery depicts an upper lvl low, centered off the eastern Florida/Georgia coast tracking slowly north- northwest along the periphery of a ridge extended across the western Atlantic. As the low begins to approach the area, dry mid-upper lvl air will be replaced with greater moisture advecting across the region.
140 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over the central Mississippi River valley.
That high pressure will begin to loosen its hold on the region as the deep low pressure along the Mississippi River ejects out. This will allow for a more zonal flow to setup across the mid-latitudes, suppressing the high to the south.
307 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 The mid and upper-level trough just northwest of the area has led to convective development late this morning, mainly east of the Mississippi, and that activity will continue to work north and east through the EVV Tri State through sunset. A trough will move eastward into Ontario Canada Tuesday, and as it does so it will draw most of the energy from our trough northward.
Due to this southerly wind shift, dewpoints tomorrow afternoon will fall into the mid 50s and cause temperatures to increase about 5 degrees warmer than previous days.
The overall synoptic picture is painting a scenario where a blocking ridge across the western Atlantic and East Coast continues to mitigate much movement of a pinched off upper level low over the middle-Mississippi River Valley. Tonight though, as the low finally devolves into an open wave and begins riding the ridge top, expect cloud cover to increase in the south and east. Given the slightly warmer airmass and partly cloudy to clear skies over the west and central, expecting highs to climb into the low to mid 80s.
246 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 An upper level low over west central Illinois will continue to drift off to the north. The upper level low will continue to move off to the north tomorrow resulting in less influence over the Midsouth. However, temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer resulting in one more day of enhanced afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
400 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Offshore high pressure will extend over the region through most of this week. Lows in the low/mid 70s interior to mid/upr 70s coast. 596 dm ridge expected over E NC, limiting shower/storm development once again. Otw, partly cloudy skies and hot/humid conditions again with highs in the low 90s interior to 85-90 near the coast.
314 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 A persistent upper low with cold air aloft continues to produce scattered small showers, especially over the southeast half of the cwfa. The slow moving upper low and trough axis over MO will finally kick east late tonight and Tuesday with rising heights and warmer air moving in from the west. After a cool start in the low/mid 60s highs should reach into the 80s.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): Ridging at the midlevels across the western Atlantic and the southwestern US will continue to keep conditions dry through this evening with light to moderate southeasterly winds. Late tonight into Tuesday, a midlevel trough will move through the Mississippi Valley and an inverted midlevel trough will develop over northern Mexico into the western Gulf bringing back a chance of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially along the coast, into Tuesday night.
Subtropical high pressure centered over the North Atlantic Ocean will build westward across the Florida Peninsula this afternoon through Tuesday, resulting in moderate to fresh breezes across Florida Keys coastal waters.
Meanwhile, a ridge will build north into British Columbia.
306 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Recent upper-level water vapor imagery showing the upper low making eastward progress out of the Missouri Valley with dry air across much of Kansas. Weak to moderate warm air advection around 850 mb tonight into early Tuesday for a warmer afternoon.
A few chances of showers and thunderstorms midweek before we head back into the weekend with warmer temperatures. A cold front over eastern South Dakota into north central South Dakota will continue to move eastward developing showers and thunderstorms along it later this evening around 00Z. As the cold front moves eastward into more stable air, it is likely that the showers and thunderstorms will begin to dissipate not making it to the Duluth area. Another chance of showers and thunderstorms come back Tuesday afternoon as that cold front continues to move through the central and eastern portions of the CWA.
Looks dry for the rest of tonight and Tuesday, as high pressure aloft starts to have a bigger influence on shutting down precip chances. Less cloud cover and more sun for Tuesday means a little warmer temperatures. Highs mainly in the low to mid 90s.
The area of low pressure currently exiting the Upper Mississippi River Valley will continue northeastward, further into the Midwest, carrying the air mass and attendant frontal boundary back north with it. Afternoon highs in the lower 90's are likely tomorrow with more isolated, diurnally-driven convection and less cloud cover to inhibit temperatures. Tuesday night lows and dew points will approach the lower 70s, however, slightly stronger winds may reduce the chance of patchy fog in our northern zones.
Low level high pressure will begin to build into Wisconsin on Tuesday, which will keep conditions dry. The high pressure will move through Wisconsin quickly with another wave of low pressure quick on its heels.
Chances for storms will increase this afternoon as a warm front moves north. a warm front continues to move north through central Indiana and is located just south of our CWA at this moment. Dew points are rising nicely toward 70 degrees immediately ahead of this warm front. Storms are expected to develop in the wake of the warm front where instability is more favorable (when compared to this morning's cloudiness).
a warm front continues to move north through central Indiana and is located just south of our CWA at this moment. Dew points are rising nicely toward 70 degrees immediately ahead of this warm front. Storms are expected to develop in the wake of the warm front where instability is more favorable (when compared to this morning's cloudiness).
With the closed upper cyclone centered to the west, broad scale ascent will remain in place across the TN Valley region through the afternoon/evening. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 70 85 70 89 / 70 70 60 40 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 69 86 68 87 / 60 50 60 40 50 Oak Ridge, TN 83 69 85 68 88 / 50 50 60 40 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 66 87 66 86 / 70 40 60 50 50.