Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
MSAS showing cold front has moved into the NW part of the Neb panhandle. Starting out Tue morning the upper air pattern has an upper low near the MN/Canada border with broad cyclonic flow across the Plains. At the surface, low pressure will be almost stacked with the upper low, while we sit under high pressure. Latest models showing sprinkles or light rain at best with this, which makes sense given how dry the lower atmosphere is expected to be. For the middle of the work week upper ridging tries to edge in from the west and the area will remain dry.
Warmer than average conditions are expected to persist into the Labor Day Weekend. Today through Tuesday: Jet stream positioned over Eastern Washington and North Idaho over the weekend gets pushed away to the north and east as ridging amplifies off the coast and the axis of the ridge moves closer to the coast.
Surface cold front stretches from central ND through south-central SD into the NE panhandle. As the cold front continues to push south and east, northwest flow will dominate the northern Plains this week. Much cooler and breezy weather can be expected for the first half of the week. Dry weather will continue for much of the week with cooler than average temperatures.
229 AM PDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Slightly warmer today across Central California as the upper ridge of high pressure remains in place.
306 AM MDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Moderate northwest flow aloft will continue for the next several days as high pressure remains established over the southwest U. and low pressure remains entrenched over the east. A few weak cold fronts will drop down the west side of the trough and push through the front range and plains. The ridge over the southwest U. will begin sliding east in response to a trough moving onshore on the west coast.
Have 60-70 percent rain chances for this afternoon across the area, with highs reaching into the lower 90s most locations, and some mid 90s inland.
A ridge is building over the Northern Rockies today, which will help temperatures warm up the next few days.
655 AM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019 High pressure remains centered over the Northeast U. An approaching cold front will spread showers in from the west starting Tuesday night.
MVFR ceilings are likely to occur at those two sites as a result, with lingering downslope flow acting to keep ceilings in the low- end VFR range at KTRI.
700 AM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019 High pressure will extend down across the eastern seaboard into central North Carolina through Tuesday morning.
Surface cold front stretches from central ND through south-central SD into the NE panhandle. As the cold front continues to push south and east, northwest flow will dominate the northern Plains this week. Much cooler and breezy weather can be expected for the first half of the week. Dry weather will continue for much of the week with cooler than average temperatures. For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Tuesday Morning Upper trof crossing the northern Plains will keep VFR cigs over the forecast area most of the day with some clearing overnight.
While scattered showers exists along a persistent convergent boundary/weak trough to our north, it is difficult to even locate agitated cumulus within our waters on GOES-East visible imagery. This speaks to the deep layer ridging that is largely in control of our sensible weather in the Florida Keys. 99 inches this morning, which is actually on the high side (3rd quartile/75% moving average). From synopsis: Weak high pressure over Cuba will move slowly northward across the Straits of Florida and the Keys this afternoon and tonight, then shift into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Weak high pressure will build from the Atlantic westward across the Florida peninsula toward the end of the week.
701 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue today and tonight as a cold front approaches the area. followed by cooler and drier weather for the remainder of the week. Low temperatures will range from the lower 60s northwest of the Illinois River. to the lower 70s along/southeast of I-70. The cold front will quickly push into Indiana by Tuesday morning, with any lingering precip coming to an end by early afternoon.
Cloudy skies and showers will continue through Tuesday, with drier and cooler conditions expected through the remainder of the week. Adjusted temperatures down in the east to the lower 70s. As this upper trough lifts ENE across the region through early evening, expect the more widespread showers to also lift east, bringing a short-lived lull in precipitation after about 00-03z. Don't have enough confidence to go completely dry for tonight with the area caught between the upper trough and approaching cold front. Temperatures slightly warmer in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Showers and a few thunderstorms should be ongoing across the area Tuesday evening in association with a cold front pushing east through the upper Ohio Valley.
Surface cold front surged south through all except Carbon County, with winds shifting to a northerly direction and briefly gusting to 25 to 35 mph. Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are forecast this afternoon for much of Carbon County before a reinforcing shot of cooler air arrives later tonight.
Hot, humid conditions will lead to substantial instability (ML CAPE of 2,000-4,000 J/kg) prior to the arrival of a strong cold front from the NW late this afternoon. A return to cooler than normal and drier conditions is expected mid-week. Otherwise, attention turns to showers and thunderstorms, some severe, along a cold front that will move through this evening.
750 AM PDT Mon Aug 26 2019 High pressure over the Southwest will bring warm days and mild nights this week.
735 AM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019 A large area of high pressure centered across southern Quebec will maintain mostly clear and tranquil weather conditions across the North Country through Tuesday.
The exiting cold front was in the Red River Valley. Clouds had already moved into north central and western North Dakota behind the departing cold front.
/issued 340 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019/ (Today and Tonight) An upper level high pressure ridge will remain across the Southern Plains today.
Cooler but drier weather conditions are expected for Tuesday as high pressure settles over the region, though do expect breezy conditions to continue and thus future shifts may need to assess Lake Wind Advisory potential again.
542 AM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019 High pressure will gradually loosen its grip on the region as a weakening front approaches from the west.
Northwest winds today will become light Tuesday under building high pressure.
711 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Upper level trof continues to slowly track to the east across forecast area as of 08z Monday. Warm front associated with system will lift north of forecast area by midday today with showers and storms exiting.
Multiple swirls are located within an elongated trough that stretches across most of the Mississippi River Valley. On Tuesday, upper flow revolves around a large low pressure system slowly moving east through southern Canada. Impacting southern Indiana and central Kentucky will be a cold front stemming from the larger low pressure system.
955 AM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019 High pressure remains centered over the Northeast U. An approaching cold front will spread showers in from the west starting Tuesday night.
1030 AM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019 High pressure will extend down across the eastern seaboard into central North Carolina through Tuesday morning.
A strong ridge of high pressure will result in mostly clear skies and hot temperatures through the middle of the week.
Dry stable northwest flow over the region with sunny skies with a strong ridge off the coast. Expect the ridge axis to build overhead by Tuesday.
there is some ridging at 500mb, but it is fairly weak, and should do little to inhibit convection.
/Issued 320 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019/ Current satellite and model analysis has an upper level trough axis running from the Saskatchewan Province in Canada down through the Upper Great Plains with a somewhat of negative tilt. High pressure is dominating the Southwest CONUS all the way from southern California east into west Texas. As this upper level trough deepens today, an associated surface cold front will enter the CWA from the north this afternoon. Daytime temperatures on Tuesday will be a bit tricky as the existence of clouds could cause temperatures to be cooler than what guidance is suggesting. Temperatures are looking to stay in the low to mid 80s everywhere in the combined Panhandles.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours as mid level ridging builds into the region. /issued 436 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Mid level ridging will build into Texas through the period. Hot and humid conditions are expected Today and Tuesday with afternoon high temperatures ranging from the low to mid 90s near the coast and 100 to 105 degrees inland. High pressure across the eastern Gulf combined with a thermal trough of low pressure across west Texas will support breezy southeast winds along the coast this afternoon. Low temperatures tonight are expected to be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
The temperature forecast looked very nice with the east to west gradient projecting a little warmer afternoon in the downslope and drier look to northern parts of the Great Valley with the cloud and rain cooled western region.
SHRA/TSRA will return to the forecast late this evening into the overnight period as a cold front drops south into the state. Chances for precip will decrease today as this trough continues to shift east. a cold front will drop SE into the state.
A subtle low level trough feature extending from south FL and across the eastern Gulf is forecast to drift eastward over central FL into late afternoon. This trough combined with inland moving sea breeze boundaries and deep moisture should lead to a high coverage of showers and storms developing across the interior into late afternoon and evening.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Mid level ridging will build into Texas through the period. Hot and humid conditions are expected Today and Tuesday with afternoon high temperatures ranging from the low to mid 90s near the coast and 100 to 105 degrees inland. High pressure across the eastern Gulf combined with a thermal trough of low pressure across west Texas will support breezy southeast winds along the coast this afternoon. Low temperatures tonight are expected to be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
1136 AM MDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Moderate northwest flow aloft will continue for the next several days as high pressure remains established over the southwest U. and low pressure remains entrenched over the east. A few weak cold fronts will drop down the west side of the trough and push through the front range and plains. The ridge over the southwest U. will begin sliding east in response to a trough moving onshore on the west coast.
Northwest flow aloft will persist as the high pressure center retrogrades towards southern California. Radiational cooling will remain efficient in this dry air mass so low temperatures are forecasted to range from the lower 60s to the mid 30s. As the upper ridge migrates westward moisture works into portions of the southwest United States.
This should keep precip chances to a minimum before the cold front moves through tomorrow. For the most part just expecting more showers through the afternoon and evening with the cold front.
North and west of the disturbance a north to northwest flow exists between a ridge over the Baja and a trough that stretches into the upper plains. At the surface a ridge of high pressure stretches from the Atlantic into the northern gulf which is keeping the onshore flow in place. A cold front is stretched across the central plains into the upper midwest. Rain chances will be higher in Acadiana in the higher PWATs which may reduce temps a degree or two, however western LA and SETX may have spotty 107-109 readings again.
255 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019 High pressure will gradually loosen its grip on the region as a weakening front approaches from the west.
133 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Expect rain chances to increase tonight as a warm front lifts across the upper Ohio Valley.
Relief will arrive in the form of a cold front later tonight. Models show the front backdooring into the northwestern CWA and funneling down through the higher terrain and western mountain areas by early tomorrow. Models are all over the place with regards to high temperatures tomorrow afternoon, but the good news is the new guidance has come in with cooler temperatures across the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period as high pressure continues to build across the Rio Grande Valley. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours as mid level ridging builds into the region. /issued 436 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Mid level ridging will build into Texas through the period. Hot and humid conditions are expected Today and Tuesday with afternoon high temperatures ranging from the low to mid 90s near the coast and 100 to 105 degrees inland. High pressure across the eastern Gulf combined with a thermal trough of low pressure across west Texas will support breezy southeast winds along the coast this afternoon. Low temperatures tonight are expected to be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
Ridging tries to build back in towards the weekend, leading to warmer temperatures after off and on (mostly on) cooler than normal temperatures. Even though the strongest winds will be in the east, they should be strong enough in Petroleum County, combined with the low RH values expected tomorrow afternoon, to get approach critical fire weather conditions.
A cold front is on its way out of South Dakota at this hour, and northwest winds continue to increase behind it. The winds will be more of a concern Tuesday, with the ridge strengthening to our west and low deepening to near 993mb across Ontario.
310 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019 High pressure will gradually loosen its grip on the region as a weakening front approaches from the west.
1250 PM PDT Mon Aug 26 2019 High pressure over the Southwest will bring warm days and mild nights this week.
139 PM MDT Mon Aug 26 2019 An upper trough covers the northern plains, with a 100 kt jet moving over the region. The upper trough will shift east on Tuesday, as a ridge builds over the western CONUS.
1037 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 A cold front is on its way out of South Dakota at this hour, and northwest winds continue to increase behind it. The winds will be more of a concern Tuesday, with the ridge strengthening to our west and low deepening to near 993mb across Ontario.
Otherwise more concerted secondary band of rainfall expected to develop late tonight along trailing height fall axis of departing wave and ahead of incoming cold front.
On Tuesday a line of showers and thunderstorms will push through the region during the afternoon ahead of a cold front. Drier and cooler conditions are then expected through the remainder of the week. Adjusted temperatures down in the east to the lower 70s. As this upper trough lifts ENE across the region through early evening, expect the more widespread showers to also lift east, bringing a short-lived lull in precipitation after about 00-03z. Don't have enough confidence to go completely dry for tonight with the area caught between the upper trough and approaching cold front. Temperatures slightly warmer in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Showers and a few thunderstorms should be ongoing across the area Tuesday evening in association with a cold front pushing east through the upper Ohio Valley.
One more very hot afternoon, then cooler temperatures on the way for the remainder of the week. The much anticipated cold front will enter NE OK late afternoon or early evening, with storms expected to develop and back build into the area ahead of the front.
154 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Gusty northwest winds behind the cold front continue this afternoon with peak wind gusts around 30 mph. A reinforcing cold front will sweep across North Dakota late Monday night and Tuesday morning.
This is primarily due to large scale, deep layer ridging that will be slow to erode over the next 48-72 hours. PoPs will gradually increase to near normal values as ridging erodes and more seasonal convective mesoscale interactions take back over.
A cold frontal boundary has pushed its way through much of the CWA as seen on radar with stronger north to northwest winds expected behind it. The pressure gradient will relax overnight as high pressure builds into the high plains keeping winds 10-15 mph into the morning hours for Tuesday. Winds will remain on the light side 5-15 mph turning out of the southeast later in the afternoon bringing back in the humidity and warmer temperatures pushing into mid week until the weekend when another strong cold front looks to push across the CWA.
Northwest flow aloft has brought a cold front through a majority of the area this afternoon. Most will only notice the cold front through the stronger winds today.
339 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 The large low pressure system, currently straddling Manitoba and Ontario, will be drifting east through Tuesday. Cooler temps aloft and diurnal heating have allowed for relatively steep low level lapse rates, and instability showers/storms have developed this afternoon in response.
344 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 An unseasonably deep upper low will lift from southern Manitoba to northern Quebec this week. This feature will remain sufficiently broad to result in northwest aloft across the Midsouth, which will aid in a surface cold frontal passage late tonight. The drier air will allow for overnight lows to cool as the low as the upper 50s in the valleys near the TN River. This secondary MCS would have a synoptic cold front on which to focus convection initially.
CAMs continue to show decreasing shower coverage as the day progresses, with mainly isolated to scattered showers through the mid afternoon and a brief break in rainfall tonight before the cold front tomorrow. Tricky part of the forecast is temperatures today as any increase in shower coverage will prevent highs from getting into the 80s, and if showers move out faster there may be enough warming to get most of the area into the low 80s.
A dry cold front will linger near central Utah through the day.
Chances for precip will decrease today as this trough continues to shift east. a cold front will drop SE into the state.
Model solutions not all on the same page for Tuesday with indication of weak lift with an impulse prior to the approach of the main upper trough and cool front toward evening.
Hot, humid conditions will lead to substantial instability (ML CAPE of 2,000-4,000 J/kg) prior to the arrival of a strong cold front from the NW late this afternoon. A return to cooler than normal and drier conditions is expected mid-week. The current thought is for a cold front to race across southwest Missouri, bringing heavy showers and thunderstorms, and thus, lowering flight categories into the MVFR range.
1206 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Upper level trof continues to slowly track to the east across forecast area as of 08z Monday. Warm front associated with system will lift north of forecast area by midday today with showers and storms exiting.
245 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Very warm temperatures around 700mb (+15-18) will likely delay and limit thunderstorm coverage late this afternoon/early evening, despite a cold front moving into northern/western Oklahoma.
232 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Expect rain chances to increase tonight as a warm front lifts across the upper Ohio Valley.
The Subtropical Ridge remains centered over the Southwestern states and extends into Texas with a slight weakening trend indicated as a cold front drops south through Northern and Western Texas. The thermal ridge weakens a little with slightly lower high temperatures on Tuesday.
With a bit more sun expected early on Tuesday, highs should be warmer than today, making it into the lower to mid 80s.
332 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019 The 500mb trough that entered the region today has weakened and will move off to the east this evening. On Tuesday a cold front will approach from the west and move through the middle Ohio Valley during the late afternoon/evening hours. Sfc cold front is forecast to push east of the area Tuesday night.
122 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Expect rain chances to increase tonight as a warm front lifts across the upper Ohio Valley.
The current thought is for a cold front to race across southwest Missouri, bringing heavy showers and thunderstorms, and thus, lowering flight categories into the MVFR range.
CAMs continue to show decreasing shower coverage as the day progresses, with mainly isolated to scattered showers through the mid afternoon and a brief break in rainfall tonight before the cold front tomorrow. Tricky part of the forecast is temperatures today as any increase in shower coverage will prevent highs from getting into the 80s, and if showers move out faster there may be enough warming to get most of the area into the low 80s. A large area of mainly light covers Middle Tennessee this morning as an upper trough moves across the mid state today.
A slow moving upper trough will bring a bit of mvfr flight weather to cha today due to a little lower ceiling with a visibility reduction in light rain.
301 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 A closed upper low will remain across southern Manitoba Canada tonight. Lows tonight will be on the cool side ranging from the upper 40s western Sandhills to the lower 50s elsewhere. On Tuesday, a disturbance will rotate through the upstream side of the upper trough. A reinforcing cold front during the day and considerable cloud cover will limit highs to the low 70s.
/Tonight through Monday/ Deep low and upper trough swinging through the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Central Plains which is driving a cold front through the state this evening. Low cloud cover has led to cooler temps and has not allowed us to destabilize much. Tuesday the upper trough develops a closed low with a secondary trough dropping through the region.
A line of convection is expected to develop later this evening along a cold front which will move southeastward through our forecast area tonight. Most of this convection should shift southeast of the forecast area by Tuesday morning with gradually clearing skies as drier air filters into the region behind the cold front.
138 PM MDT Mon Aug 26 2019 The Tri-State area remains under northwest flow aloft this afternoon as an upper ridge is situated over the western U. and an upper trough digs southward into the Dakotas. The cold front moved through the area earlier this morning and winds have not mixed down as much as anticipated.
333 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 A surface cold front is moving eastward across the forecast area this afternoon. Surface ridging will commence following fropa, and winds will quickly relax by this evening.
VFR TAF elements to prevail into the evening across the NE OK and NW AR sites when thunderstorm chances will increase in association with a passing cold front. One more very hot afternoon, then cooler temperatures on the way for the remainder of the week. The much anticipated cold front will enter NE OK late afternoon or early evening, with storms expected to develop and back build into the area ahead of the front.
With that said, there is still strong upper level flow moving into the area associated with an upper trough moving across the northern Plains. This upper system will push a cold front through the area later this afternoon and this evening.
With the trough sitting off the eastern seaboard, what ridging is left over the area is ill-defined at best. There is a weak lower tropospheric ridge axis along the northern coast of Cuba at present. This will be pinched off overnight by the deepening trough off the southeast coast, leaving a weak anticyclonic area in the southeastern Gulf.
We thankfully have a chance to dry out the next couple of days as high pressure sets up across the area. Skies should also continue to clear as we head into the overnight hours with temperatures cooling down into the low to mid 50s.