Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Higher dewpoints are filtering in from the west with readings into the low 70s from POF to CGI and MVN. This threat appears primarily confined to locations north of a KCGI to KEVV line, with the higher potential to the north and northwest of our cwa.
Another boundary extended from near low pressure over central Kansas into northeast Kansas and this one is forecast to push northward toward the NE/KS/MO border this evening. A mid/upper-level trough axis is forecast over the region during this time-period with amplified ridging over the northern Rockies.
320 PM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021 High pressure drifting across the Canadian maritimes will keep fair weather over our region through Friday.
06z surface analysis shows a cold front currently located from the tip of the Arrowhead to the Brainerd Lakes area. Conditions behind the cold front will be much more mundane compared to current conditions across the area. The remainder of today in northeast Minnesota will be dry as high pressure builds. Friday will be a quiet day across the CWA as high pressure remains over the area. An active weather pattern is likely this weekend as a longwave trough stalls over the northern Plains. Quiet weather for Thursday as high pressure builds in from the west.
Friday will be warmer and dry to end the week. The warming trend continues Friday as the southwest flow continues to bring warmer air into the region. High pressure will still be in place. Upper 70s to mid 80s are expected for the highs on Friday.
ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 87 68 89 71 / 0 0 0 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 88 66 90 69 / 0 0 0 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 63 87 65 89 69 / 0 0 0 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 86 63 88 66 / 0 0 10 20 10.
A series of upper level disturbances/short wave trofs (3 or more of them) will move east into the forecast area as abundant moisture surges northeast and as a front settles over the region.
Again, much of this moisture is confined primarily to the lowest 2-3km of the atmosphere. Further west, a stronger mid level capping inversion and stronger ridging aloft may tend to suppress coverage a bit.
A low pressure system will move east-northeast across Kansas today, dragging along with it a warm front which will settle along the Nebraska/Kansas state line in the evening. As for timing, isolated thunderstorms may develop in the early evening in southwest Nebraska in vicinity of the warm front. However, greater potential for rainfall may be later overnight as surface moisture wraps around the low, an 850 mb trough moves in from the west, and upper level disturbances move in from the Panhandle. Some storms may be marginally severe in the afternoon along the trough in southwest and areas of north central Nebraska, with strong winds and hail being the main hazards.
112 PM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021 High Pressure over the north Atlantic will keep cool northeast maritime flow across the region through Friday. Stagnant pattern to remain in place through Friday with High Pressure across the northern Atlantic resulting in seasonally cool maritime northeast to easterly low-level flow across the region.
Lows have inched upward a few degree or two, so lows in the low to mid 70s look in target. A little warmer across the Big Country where a low level jet will keep mixing up overnight.
The short term period will see mostly dry conditions has high pressure remains the dominate feature over the area. The ridge will become anchored over the southeastern CONUS and should suppress any convection from developing through at least Friday.
255 PM MDT Thu Jun 24 2021 Current surface analysis shows passing cold front overnight has become nearly stationary from central/southern NE through eastern WY and eastern MT, with low pressure along it over far southeast MT. Skies are variably cloudy across the area, Showers and storms have been developing over WY and MT, especially over and near the higher terrain, as well as the Black Hills this afternoon.
Otherwise, a few isolated showers have been attempting to develop but have been kept at bay as subsidence from ridging aloft takes control. Temperatures tomorrow afternoon will be similar to today with highs in the low 90s along the coast to near 100 degrees out west.
A strong upper ridge will build over the region through the weekend.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed ahead of a cold front pushing through western MN early this morning. The cold front will continue eastward this morning, clearing most of the area early this afternoon before additional development occurs. In doing so, the surface cold front will likely drape along this axis for Friday. Low pressure tracking eastward across the Plains will in turn remain well south of our area, so PoPs have been decreased again.
Overnight lows will range from the low to mid 70s.
342 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021 Summary: A cold front over far southeastern portion of the CWA will move southeastward out of the area by this evening.
The models indicate a weak upper trough will move into Colorado this evening and stay over the state through Friday. Save for some thunderstorm outflows, the low level winds should be weak and adhere to normal diurnal wind trends tonight. Temperatures will be cooler than today's readings. Large blocking high will set up over British Columbia and Washington state this weekend. A deep trough will be over the middle of the country with a north/northwest flow aloft over Colorado. Over the higher terrain 500 J/kg of CAPE will prevail, with less across the plains.
1157 AM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021 High pressure maintains dry weather through early Friday. High pressure slowly drifts east but remains in control through the near term. Southerly flow around the western flank of the anticyclone will yield warming temperatures day with highs reaching the mid 80s across much of the lower elevations with mid 60s to lower 70s in the mountains. Weather pattern remains slow with high pressure across the western US, another one off the East Coast, and in between, a slow- moving cold front expected to meander across the mid west Friday through the weekend. It seems like the broad high pressure off the East Coast will maintain its influence over the local region through late Friday with mainly dry weather.
117 PM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021 High pressure will continue to build across the region through the end of the week with gradually warming temperatures and mainly dry weather. Another pleasant day on tap today as high pressure remains situated to our south and east. Highs are expected in the low to mid 80s.
1031 AM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021 The forecast has been updated to add a mention of isolated showers to the coastal plains and portions of the Highway 77 corridor through the remainder of this morning. Subtropical Ridging provides a fairly strong capping inversion to keep mixing with the drier airmass aloft at a minimum today. The Ridge and associated capping weaken a little on Friday allowing heat index values to be a couple of degrees lower in the afternoon keeping them under Heat Advisory criteria. The capping inversion and subsidence under the Subtropical Ridge will generally inhibit showers and thunderstorms.
Warmer with increased humidity levels should commence this weekend, with a shower or storm possible. Quiet conditions are anticipated Friday as high pressure supports another dry day. With the region situated on the wrn flank of broad, ern CONUS high pressure and a digging central Plains trough, a baroclinic zone should develop across the Great Lakes.
Currently, high pressure is situated over western and central ND at the surface. Showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms continues on Friday as upper level troughing lingers over the forecast area. As the aforementioned trough meanders to our east, flow aloft becomes almost straight northerly in response to an increasingly amplified upper ridge across the Pacific NW.
Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s with highs on Friday in the lower to middle 80s. Highs tomorrow should be in the middle 80s with overnight lows in the lower 70s. Overnight lows should start in the lower 70s but then drop into the upper 60s for the last half of the period.
Lows will range from the mid to upper 70s with high temperatures Friday ranging from the lower 90s east to the century mark or a skosh higher far west.
138 PM PDT Thu Jun 24 2021 Building high pressure to the north will bring warming and drying through the weekend.
At this time, the ops models and hi-res models show a short wave trough off to our northwest and one off to our southwest. These will come together over our region tonight into Friday with a 50h low pressure trough axis centered over our region on Friday night. Friday will be cooler across the cwa, especially west in the cwa where mid 70s will be the case with more clouds and rainfall. Mid-level trough axis will be in place across the region through the weekend, with chances for showers and thunderstorms.
300 PM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021 High pressure will provide fair and seasonably warm weather to the region through Friday night. Strong high pressure centered over the eastern seaboard and western Atlantic will remain the dominant weather feature for the area through Friday night with mainly fair and dry weather.
Rinse and repeat for Friday as little if any change will be found with the placement of the upper level ridge axis.
An upper level trough remains over the southeastern U. gradually pinching off a weak upper level low/trough that tracks southwest into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico through Friday while the parent trough weakens and ejects northeastward into the northwestern Atlantic. At the same time, upper level ridging continues to build its way northeast from Mexico, eventually stretching its axis across the ArkLaTex region perhaps into the Ohio Valley. We will remain on the southeastern periphery of the upper level ridge and maintain northeasterly mid to upper level flow. At the surface, high pressure remains rooted across the western Atlantic, with surface ridging extending southwest through much of the southeastern U. Overnight lows will generally dip into the lower 70's to perhaps middle 70's in spots.
Heights aloft will decrease just slightly yet again tomorrow as an upper level trough moves south out of the northern Rockies. With bulk shear values slightly stronger than the past several days, multi-cell clusters should develop along the trough and generate a cold pool.
At the surface, high pressure is centered across the Eastern Seaboard with an E-W front inland along the northern Gulf Coast.
Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid to upper 60s for inland areas, with the coolest temperatures occuring over inland southeast Georgia, and in the lower 70s for north central Florida and along the coastline.
132 PM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021 High pressure will remain over the area through tonight.
Friday through Thursday: An area of high pressure will position itself off the coast of WA and and bring a prolonged and extreme period of record breaking temperatures for the region. The high will block any chance of precip or moisture for the region.
High pressure will remain over the area through tonight.
752 PM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021 High pressure drifting across the Canadian maritimes will keep fair weather over our region through Friday.
Overnight temps will remain warm outside of rain-cooled areas, hovering in the low to mid 70s, potential upper 70s at the coast.
Warmer with increased humidity levels should commence this weekend, with a shower or storm possible. High pressure will result in continued dry conditions and near normal lows overnight. Quiet conditions are anticipated Friday as high pressure supports another dry day. With the region situated on the wrn flank of broad, ern CONUS high pressure and a digging central Plains trough, a baroclinic zone should develop across the Great Lakes.
Current surface analysis reveals high pressure centered along the Mid-Atlantic/East Coast with a couple areas of low pressure centered over the Upper Midwest and the south-central Plains. HREF composite reflectivities suggest this system will similarly weaken as it begins to run into the eastern ridge tomorrow morning, resulting in best chances to see some showers and storms Friday being across southern IN and northern KY. Temperatures will once again be in the 80s across the area with slightly cooler temps over northern portions of the area where cloud cover is expected to be thicker.
On Friday a weak cold front will move into northeastern Utah and northwestern Colorado. The southern edge of the upper trof axis will move over the northern portion of the forecast area. The cold front will focus shower and thunderstorm development as it slowly moves southeast through the day. A large anomalous area of high pressure will develop over the Pacific Northwest stretching into the northern Great Basin and Intermountain West this weekend, with our CWA on the eastern fringes of the better moisture to the east and drier air to the west.
Cooler surface and mid-level air will move over the area starting late this afternoon and into Friday. The trough then digs into the central Rockies Friday with continued instability and moisture over the area, giving rise to showers and isolated thunderstorms with mean northerly flow. The beginning of the period shows a longwave trough stretching from the Dakotas back into northwestern AZ along with a large (596 decameter) high pressure dome centered over southern British Columbia.
Low pressure along the coast is causing temperatures to run a few degrees below normal inland. The center of the low pressure system is hugging the California coastline and will gradually weaken as high pressure builds over the Pacific Northwest. The building high pressure will start to compress the marine layer this weekend. The newsworthy strong high pressure over the Pacific NW has garnered a lot of media attention due to anomalously high temperatures expected across WA, OR, and CA.
A cold front will move through the area this evening. Winds are already somewhat out of the northwest with some pre-frontal troughing, so there will not be much of shift in the wind direction. Temperatures should be significantly cooler tomorrow behind the front.
The stratus deck should begin to develop after 06z and then build down into a mix of IFR and MVFR restrictions with the lowest ceilings expected at KMCB, KBTR, KHDC, and KASD between 09z and 13z in the morning.
740 PM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021 High Pressure over the north Atlantic will keep cool northeast maritime flow across the region through Friday. Clouds also resulting in temps a little cooler than expected at this time, so some tweaks down in that regard as well. Still expecting more clearing of these lower clouds compared to last night, but worried that thin cirrus from the upper Midwest spilling over ridge may be enough to prevent any valley fog formation again. Stagnant pattern to remain in place through Friday with High Pressure across the northern Atlantic resulting in seasonally cool maritime northeast to easterly low-level flow across the region.
Temperatures were near or just above 80 degrees with dewpoints in the lower 70s. The high pressure ridge centered east of New England and wedged southwest east of the Appalachians was slotted by a weak low and trough off the Mid Atlantic/Carolinas. From synopsis, High pressure will build across the Florida Keys marine zones, resulting in freshening east to southeast breezes overnight and into the weekend. The low temperature at Key West International Airport of 73F during a heavy thunderstorm this morning was just 2 degrees away from the daily record low temperature (71F), which was last recorded in 1938.
716 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021 Summary: A cold front over far southeastern portion of the CWA will move southeastward out of the area by this evening.
An inverted trough and moisture axis remain across the area.
928 PM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021 High pressure will remain over the area through tonight.
606 PM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021 High Pressure over the north Atlantic will keep cool northeast maritime flow across the region through Friday. Clouds also resulting in temps a little cooler than expected at this time, so some tweaks down in that regard as well. Still expecting more clearing of these lower clouds compared to last night, but worried that thin cirrus from the upper Midwest spilling over ridge may be enough to prevent any valley fog formation again. Stagnant pattern to remain in place through Friday with High Pressure across the northern Atlantic resulting in seasonally cool maritime northeast to easterly low-level flow across the region.
539 PM MDT Thu Jun 24 2021 Current surface analysis shows passing cold front overnight has become nearly stationary from central/southern NE through eastern WY and eastern MT, with low pressure along it over far southeast MT. Skies are variably cloudy across the area, Showers and storms have been developing over WY and MT, especially over and near the higher terrain, as well as the Black Hills this afternoon.
653 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021 The cold front has moved through most of the forecast area except for southeastern Minnesota and parts of west central Wisconsin. After any storms exit this evening we will be dry through most of Friday before low pressure moving south of the area through Iowa brings back the chance for showers to southern parts of the forecast area Friday night. Temperatures won't change much behind the front with Friday being only slightly cooler than today, but with more comfortable dewpoints for all.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 88 67 89 71 / 0 0 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 88 65 90 69 / 0 0 0 20 0 Oak Ridge, TN 64 87 64 89 68 / 0 0 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 87 61 89 66 / 0 0 0 20 10.
835 PM MDT Thu Jun 24 2021 Cold front has pushed through all but the far south and eastern areas. Upper trough that pushed the cold front along, will continue to work through the area tonight and will keep ascent going. Lowered some temperatures too as cold front and outflow boundaries have cooled things down quickly. A cold front will move through the area this evening. Winds are already somewhat out of the northwest with some pre-frontal troughing, so there will not be much of shift in the wind direction. Temperatures should be significantly cooler tomorrow behind the front.
The surface pressure gradient tightens from the retreating high pressure, which will lead to breezy near-surface winds, especially west of I-71. The environment also appears to be more capped as you progress east- southeast with the presence of a low-level inversion in the lowest 1km.
554 PM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021 High pressure drifting across the Canadian maritimes will keep fair weather over our region through Friday.
Latest satellite and radar images show cumulus cloud buildups over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada, mainly from Fresno County northward.
Cooler surface and mid-level air will move over the area starting late this afternoon and into Friday. The trough then digs into the central Rockies Friday with continued instability and moisture over the area, giving rise to showers and isolated thunderstorms with mean northerly flow.
340 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Concerns/impacts for the period will be associated with shower/weak thunderstorm chances spreading from central ND eastward this afternoon and evening as upper trough approaches. Increasing clouds associated with wave will keep temps a bit cooler today than yesterday with highs in the 70s in NE ND and northern Red River Valley with 80s elsewhere.
Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s with highs on Friday in the lower to middle 80s. Latest CAM guidance suggests the heavier axis of precip stays along and south of I-72 into Friday morning, and this makes sense given the current MUCAPE gradient draped just north of a warm front positioned along the I-70 corridor in Missouri. Highs tomorrow should be in the middle 80s with overnight lows in the lower 70s. Overnight lows should start in the lower 70s but then drop into the upper 60s for the last half of the period.
338 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Today and tonight: Early morning water vapor/RAP analysis showed our CWA on the eastern periphery of 591dam ridge resulting in northerly flow aloft. Early morning surface analysis had a ridge nosing across our CWA from the northeast resulting in a southeast low level flow across our CWA. Most sites reached the lower 90s yesterday. Temperatures are expected to top out slightly cooler today ranging from the upper 80s east to the lower 90s west.
Upper level trough across the area will shift west into the eastern Gulf of Mexico today. a frontal boundary just south of the Ga-Fl line and an inverted trough over the Atlantic waters has resulted in a cool low level wedge building in from the ne this morning. The front will gradually lift back north today as the inverted trough shifts westward across the area. Winds will become southeasterly as the trough axis shifts to the west with scattered afternoon storms spreading inland as daytime heating and increasing moisture destabilizes the airmass. Shower activity will end over the Suwannee Valley early this evening as the trough shifts west of the area.
1117 PM MDT Thu Jun 24 2021 Current surface analysis shows passing cold front overnight has become nearly stationary from central/southern NE through eastern WY and eastern MT, with low pressure along it over far southeast MT. Skies are variably cloudy across the area, Showers and storms have been developing over WY and MT, especially over and near the higher terrain, as well as the Black Hills this afternoon.
A broad upper trough extends from the Desert Southwest through the Central Rockies and Northern Plains into a deep closed low over Hudson Bay Canada. A disturbance ahead of this trough is currently located across the western panhandle and northeast CO, will lift northeastward today and bring likely to categorical chances for showers and thunderstorms to much of the area. Mainly cloudy skies, rainfall and a cold front passage will limit highs today to the upper 60s northwest Sandhills to the mid and upper 70s east and southwest. For tonight, the main upper trough axis will move through western NE, and bring likely chances this evening to the northeastern half of the area, with chance POPs to the west.
840 PM PDT Thu Jun 24 2021 Building high pressure to the north will bring warming and drying through the weekend.
410 AM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021 A weak trough of low pressure moves into the coastal areas Friday morning, then diminishes while pushing inland Friday afternoon and evening. High pressure remains centered well offshore over the weekend, as a weak trough lingers off the southeast coast. Current sfc analysis shows high pressure extending southwest into the Carolinas. A warm front is located along the coast and will move northwest during the day today, with increasing clouds and rain/storm chances. Dew points will be rising into the low 70s behind the front. As the warm front moves across the area, it will provide enough lift for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. High temperatures today will be in the low to mid 80s.
A positively-tilted trough will continue to steer disturbances across the mid Mississippi Valley throughout the short term.
(Today and tonight) Today will be the beginning of a transition to a much more active pattern as a cold front slowly pushes southward into our area later today and begins to stall through the weekend. By late in the afternoon, CAM guidance is in good agreement on extensive thunderstorm development along the length of the cold front from the TX panhandle east-northeastward into northern OK and southern KS.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 67 89 71 88 / 0 0 10 0 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 65 90 69 90 / 0 0 20 0 30 Oak Ridge, TN 87 64 89 68 89 / 0 0 10 0 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 61 89 66 89 / 0 0 20 10 40.
With southerly winds today along with partial clearing, high temperatures will be warmer today and slightly above normal across central and southeast MO and southwest IL.
400 AM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021 High pressure will keep fair weather over our region today.