Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1105 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 (This evening through Thursday) Tomorrow will be a transition day as the closed-low across Missouri accelerates to the northeast with rising mid-level heights and the eastward expansion of a low-level thermal ridge across the Southern Plains.
148 AM EDT Thu Oct 7 2021 A cloudy and very mild weather pattern by October standards will continue through the end of this week thanks to high pressure at the surface and aloft remaining over the Northeast U.
137 AM EDT Thu Oct 7 2021 High pressure will remain in firm control of our weather through at least Thursday night.
233 AM EDT Thu Oct 7 2021 The short term will start off wet, especially this afternoon and evening as an upper low, seen on H20 vapor imagery over the Ozarks, spins northeast to near St.
342 AM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021 Pattern change is underway across the region as heights rise in wake of departing upper low leading to several days of unseasonably warm temperatures. Otherwise clearing skies and noticeably warmer afternoon area wide. A low chance of elevated convection remains possible tonight on periphery of expanding thermal ridge, however any coverage is likely to remain low.
Conditions will be slightly cooler today compared to yesterday with temperatures battling the showers and clouds and topping out only in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Overnight temperatures dipping into the low 50s to low 60s with elevated dew points would set up a favorable scenario for patchy fog to develop across the region by tomorrow morning. The low pressure system continues on its track to the northeast through the Great Lakes region with a 300 mb jet max around 130 knots on its tail streaming through southern California through the Four Corners Region.
1107 PM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021 A cloudy and very mild weather pattern by October standards will continue through the end of this week thanks to high pressure at the surface and aloft remaining over the Northeast U.
246 AM EDT Thu Oct 7 2021 High pressure brings quiet weather for several days.
1048 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 Closed upper level low, currently spinning over AR (per latest watervapor satellite imagery), will get nudged north/northeast over the next couple days. thanks in part to a 300 mb jetlet moving northward in the lee of the low.
Mid-level ridging will continue to build in from the west across Texas as mid-level troughing lifts to the northeast. At the surface, onshore flow should keep limited moisture in place with dewpoints in the lower 60s inland to the mid/upper 60s near the coast.
/issued 313 AM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): High pressure builds across Deep South Texas as the mid-level trough across the Ohio River Valley continues northward into the Great Lakes. Very comfortable conditions will continue locally through Friday under mostly clear skies due to the subsidence west of the mid level trough and dry air aloft. Dewpoints from the low 50s to low 60s generally rule, with RH values between 30 to 40 percent. Heat Indices top off in the low to mid 90s.
Water vapor satellite imagery reveals an amplified trough that extends from western Canada, south and west towards Hawaii! Thanks to this long southwest fetch over the Pacific Ocean, above average atmospheric moisture is found across much of the southwestern U. There has been a question of how far north will the rain showers make it and it appears that a few of the high resolution models depict showers making it as far north as the southern Mission Valley and Seeley/Swan valleys into this afternoon. This will solidify the trough over the coast and allow for another round of rain showers on Friday.
Today Through Friday Night The upper level low, which brought showers/thunderstorms to the area yesterday, is pulling away from the CWA located in north-central Missouri, moving northward. There are currently some light rain showers hanging around on the southern side of the low for northern AR. High temperatures are expected to be warmer than previous days with highs in the 80s to lower 90s and low temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s. The northeast half of the state looks to see the highest chance of fog development.
610 AM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridge axis building across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours. Lows mainly in the low to mid 60s.
and Friday WV imagery showed an upper low over Missouri, with a plume of moisture wrapping into southern WI. The upper level low will drift northeast, reaching central IL later today, and northern IL late tonight. The upper level low will weaken into an open trough on Friday, and move through the forecast area during the late morning and afternoon.
A Pacific storm system will bring much cooler temperatures and a chance of mainly light precipitation tonight and Friday.
WV imagery shows West Texas and Southeast New Mexico sandwiched between dirty ridging to the west, and an upper trough over MO. This ridge will build into the region today, increasing thicknesses and ramping up highs 10-15F above normal.
Following passage of this boundary, winds shift to out of the north for Thursday and we'll see slightly cooler highs for Thursday and Friday, though still above normal.
Meanwhile, energy pushes down the west side of the upper trough on Friday, and this will bring a chance for rain mainly along the coast and perhaps as far east as Roseburg and Happy Camp Friday afternoon and evening.
81 inches) noted through the lower and mid levels, while drier air was noted in the upper levels which is confirmed by water vapor satellite imagery. It will be an unseasonably warm and muggy day for early October with temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s with dew points in the lower 70s supporting heat indices in the 100-105 degree range during the afternoon, so if you plan to be outdoors make sure you drink plenty of water to stay hydrated. Weak high pressure from the Atlantic across the area combined with a trough of low pressure to the northwest of the area will maintain southeast winds around 10 knots with seas of 2 feet or less over the Gulf waters the remainder of today with an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast during the afternoon.
537 AM MDT Thu Oct 7 2021 A weak upper-level trough has started making its way onshore across the Pacific Northwest. This trough will struggle to move east quickly until a second upper-level trough/low moves in across Central California tonight into Friday. As these two areas of low pressure merge they will become a large open trough engulfing much of the Western US.
702 AM EDT Thu Oct 7 2021 High pressure will continue to provide dry and mild weather through Friday, but low clouds will remain trapped under the high. High pressure across northern New England will give way to an approaching trough of low pressure gradually. The majority of showers associated with the trough of low pressure should still be confined to western portions of NY thanks to some residual influence of the high.
The short term will start off wet, especially this afternoon and evening as an upper low, seen on H20 vapor imagery over the Ozarks, spins northeast to near St. Meanwhile, remnant trough will be pivoting northeast across central Indiana on Friday. Combo of upper impulses around the upper low, moisture and instability will fuel widespread afternoon showers and scattered thunderstorms. The activity will continue over areas near and north of Interstate 74 this evening and overnight as it ends over southwestern sections due to the upper low moving away and drier air moving in. More scattered convection on Friday afternoon, with best chances northeast, as the trough moves through.
725 AM EDT Thu Oct 7 2021 High pressure brings quiet weather for several days. A cold front on Friday will bring a shift toward cooler weather, but it will remain dry through the weekend. High pressure over the area today brings another day of calm conditions. Early morning valley fog will burn off and give way to sunny conditions area wide with temperatures warming into the low 70s. A trough dropping down through eastern Canada will send a cold front southward on Friday. A cooler air mass will be moving in with it.
/Issued 342 AM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021/ Pattern change is underway across the region as heights rise in wake of departing upper low leading to several days of unseasonably warm temperatures. Otherwise clearing skies and noticeably warmer afternoon area wide. A low chance of elevated convection remains possible tonight on periphery of expanding thermal ridge, however any coverage is likely to remain low.
/issued 242 AM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021/ Short wave ridging will move overhead today leading to another fairly uneventful day on the South Plains of West Texas.
The upper level low that has been situated to the northeast over the past several days will move towards the Great Lakes by Friday with a ridge of high pressure moving in behind it.
The large upper low that has plagued the area over the last couple of days continues to slowly move northward this morning.
This will lead to a mostly sunny day on Friday with weak WAA getting underway and upper level ridging building into the region temperatures are expected to warm into the low to mid 80s.
310 AM MDT Thu Oct 7 2021 Today and Friday will be cooler days (i. seasonable temps) with an increasing chance of showers as an upper level trough transitions into the region. Some thunder (lightning) is possible each afternoon, mainly over and near the high country. For today, favorable upper jet dynamics and gradual height falls with the approaching trough will induce lift across mainly our western zones. As this energy exits to the east and diminishes by early Friday, another round of favorable dynamics will move into our area from the southwest and spread over our CWA Friday as a split flow trough transitions over the region. Temps will be in the low 60s west to low 70s east today, and 60s across the region Friday.
212 AM PDT Thu Oct 7 2021 Unsettled weather continues through Friday bringing cooler temperatures, scattered showers, and breezy winds at times. Increased cloudiness is expected today as the main trough advances towards California with generally only light showers expected over the northern Sierra/southern Cascades through the afternoon. The better chances for precipitation will be late Thursday night into Friday as the trough moves inland, with the heaviest precipitation over the Sierra Nevada south of I-80 and Motherlode region. 5 kft, some snow showers will also be possible, with some light accumulations up to around 3 inches, locally higher on the highest peaks.
1048 AM EDT Thu Oct 7 2021 High pressure will continue to provide dry and mild weather through Friday, but low clouds will remain trapped under the high. High pressure across northern New England will give way to an approaching trough of low pressure gradually. The majority of showers associated with the trough of low pressure should still be confined to western portions of NY thanks to some residual influence of the high.
Sfc analysis shows a closed low just to the NW, located over the Dakotas/Montana/Canada borders. Some light troughing from this feature will push through today, bringing a brief spat of clouds, but otherwise just passing through. The clearing will allow for daytime highs to heat up even more than today--into the lower to mid 80s. Again, this is on avg 15 degrees above avg for this time of year! During this time at upper levels, flow will amplify a bit just south and lead to a region of light troughing. This won't last long as a strong trough will begin to work its way west to east just after the short term.
Latest analysis shows the upper level low which has kept our weather unsettled this week is currently over southern Missouri. The upper low is expected to drift north today and open up into a long wave trough late tonight into Friday. Overnight lows in the lower 60s, with some upper 50s possible in the far SW. The trough axis crosses the area during the day on Friday, and likely moves east of the area late Friday night. Scattered showers and storms are expected during the afternoon and early evening, with the highest Pops over far eastern KY. A departing trough of low pressure aloft will allow a few showers and storms to linger across eastern Kentucky going into the upcoming weekend.
The large scale pattern will be characterized by a ridge to our south over northwest Mexico and a developing trough off the West Coast today.
It includes much cooler temperatures than we have experienced in quite some time, including late night and morning readings near or below freezing.
Tonight and Friday The upper trough over Southern Illinois is forecast to lift slowly northeast to Lake Michigan by Friday afternoon and produce periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Friday Night Through Thursday Southwest flow aloft, between an upper trough over the west coast and a ridge east of the Mississippi River, will bring periodic rain chances to the region.
Tomorrow another round of better energy moves into the area as a splitting trough moves through the Northern Rockies.
206 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021 The upper low now centered in central Illinois continues to make northern progress and will transition into an open trough tonight. So far, the highest amounts seen by MRMS has been around 0. A couple isolated, brief showers are possible mainly along the plateau on Friday as the trough axis slides east of the area.
Upper low has now moved to around Saint Louis and will continue to slowly move north northeast through IL this afternoon. 4 inches with the higher axis of 1.
1244 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021 Latest satellite imagery reveals areas of strato cu advecting over portions of NW Iowa and SW Minnesota in response to an upper level low near Missouri lifting northward. Thus, given the increase in cloud cover, have afternoon highs east of I-29 only climbing into the low to mid 70s, with areas elsewhere forecast to climb into the upper 70s. Heading into the afternoon, models continue to hint that light showers may be possible across SW Minnesota and NW Iowa, as the upper level low edges closer to our east. Upper level flow turns more southwesterly by Friday as a weak ridge builds across the area ahead of an advancing upper level trough over the western CONUS.
200 PM PDT Thu Oct 7 2021 A Pacific trough of low pressure will interact with an atmospheric river to bring rain, mostly light to moderate, late tonight and Friday.
253 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021 The upper level low that has been persistent to our east has now lifted into the mid-Mississippi valley, with mid level heights beginning to rise over the southern plains.
306 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021 Upper low currently spinning over central IL will continue to lift north and east this evening and overnight, allowing stratocumulus that has plagued the eastern half of the forecast area today to slowly dissipate and move east.
Currently, a cold front extended from the Turtle Mountains south southeast to just east of Bismarck. Later this afternoon and this evening, as the front meanders slowly eastward, there will probably be some increase in the shower activity east of the Highway 83 corridor. Lows tonight will range from the lower 40s to lower 50s.
Once the sun drops this evening, the precip could dissipate some, but with the upper level low system slowly moving across the area, some precip will remain likely through the night. Dry and very warm conditions are expected through the weekend as ridging builds into the area.
1214 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridge axis building across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours. Lows mainly in the low to mid 60s.
However, surface winds will remain from the south, allowing for a shallow layer of moisture to remain in the lower levels. Lows tonight will range in the low to mid 60s, with afternoon highs tomorrow ranging in the low to mid 90s.
As ridging continues to strengthen overhead, thicknesses will rise and temps will remain 10-15 degrees above average at all locations.
The large upper low that has plagued the area over the last couple of days continues to slowly move northward this morning. Deep upper low is finally pulling off to the north and the deepest moisture has exited Middle Tennessee.
Weak flow and ample low level moisture beneath and to the north of the low has resulted in widespread fog and low stratus from southern MO into west-central IL. Isolated showers and storms may continue to percolate this morning as the low slowly drifts to the northeast while drier air on the backside of the low begins to filter into southwestern portions of the forecast area. The upper low will fully push out of the region on Friday as upper level ridging takes hold across the Great Plains. The influx of warm dry air should push temperatures into the low to mid 80s as any lingering clouds depart from west to east on Friday afternoon.
Mid level ridging will build overhead this weekend, providing a healthy dose of subsidence to the region. At the surface, high pressure will slide off to the east, maintaining an easterly onshore flow.
High pressure and a deep layer of dry air will maintain VFR conditions with winds becoming light out of the east this afternoon and dropping off overnight to become light and variable to calm. /issued 313 AM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): High pressure builds across Deep South Texas as the mid-level trough across the Ohio River Valley continues northward into the Great Lakes. Very comfortable conditions will continue locally through Friday under mostly clear skies due to the subsidence west of the mid level trough and dry air aloft. Dewpoints from the low 50s to low 60s generally rule, with RH values between 30 to 40 percent. Heat Indices top off in the low to mid 90s.
320 PM EDT Thu Oct 7 2021 A low pressure system is currently just north of St. From now until sunset tomorrow, this closed upper low will get pushed to the northeast until it's over Lake Michigan. Believe with all the low level moisture it will likely be more low stratus with areas of fog, but this is also dependent on where there is extra moisture from rainfall today and areas of clear skies tonight. Expect a foggy start to an otherwise warm, dry, and sunny weekend as high pressure builds into the region.
930 AM PDT Thu Oct 7 2021 Mostly cloudy skies with isolated showers will prevail today ahead of a trough of low pressure. The trough will interact with an atmospheric river to bring rain, mostly light to moderate, late tonight and Friday.
Therefore, daytime highs will peak in the upper 80s to lower 90s today and tomorrow while overnight lows cool off into the low 60s for our northern counties and mid to upper 60s everywhere else. Warm Gulf waters will keep coastal/island sites in the lower 70s overnight.
Tonight will be dry, and most models and high res CAMs indicate the daytime hours on Friday will be dry as well, likely due to the the weak ridging over the area, with H7 temps between +4C and +6C (possibly enough of a CAP for this time of year).
343 PM EDT Thu Oct 7 2021 High pressure will continue to provide dry and mild weather through Friday, but low clouds will remain trapped under the high. Slow-moving amplified pattern, will keep our area in a marine- influenced southeasterly low level flow between coastal Carolina low pressure and high pressure centered over northern New England. Those same locations will thus be able to get into the lower 70s, whereas the rest of the region will have highs mostly in the 60-70 degrees range under thicker clouds. At the surface, a ridge will extend from the New England high which will keep moisture rather shallow.
Temperatures are mostly in the low 80s and likely very close to afternoon highs. Dry conditions are expected beginning tonight and continue through the weekend as a transient ridge shifts over the Midsouth.
228 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021 (Issued 228 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021) Tonight through Friday night: An upper level low located near St. With the upper low overhead and a bit of surface heating, suspect we will have a few more thunderstorms in the area compared to today. Rain should end tomorrow evening as the upper low lifts northeast of the area.
An opening upper low over the Mid Mississippi River Valley moves northeast into an upper ridge stretching north along the East Coast. A mean upper trough stretching south over the Mississippi River from the opening low moves east over the Southeast and Tennessee River Valley. Temperatures remain above seasonal norms through the Near Term with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s expected today and Friday and low temperatures ranging from the low 60s northwest of the Alabama River to upper 60s to around 70 southeast of I-65.
A similar setup to yesterday is in place currently, with a nearly stationary upper low spinning over Missouri. So far, cloud cover from this low has helped keep fog from developing. Given a similar setup, highs today will be similar to yesterday, though perhaps a couple degrees warmer as the upper low slowly pulls farther away from the area.
The upper low over the CWA will move NE today into tonight, leading to additional isolated to scattered showers into this evening (mainly over the eastern CWA). An upper ridge will move over the area as a trough deepens while moving into the western CONUS. This will lead to increased SW low level flow, bringing a much warmer airmass into the region.
A broad upper level trough centered over the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin will continue to slowly push eastward through Friday.
153 PM EDT Thu Oct 7 2021 High pressure will continue to provide dry and mild weather through Friday, but low clouds will remain trapped under the high. High pressure across northern New England will give way to an approaching trough of low pressure gradually. The majority of showers associated with the trough of low pressure should still be confined to western portions of NY thanks to some residual influence of the high.
An opening upper low over the Mid Mississippi River Valley moves northeast into an upper ridge stretching north along the East Coast. A mean upper trough stretching south over the Mississippi River from the opening low moves east over the Southeast and Tennessee River Valley. Temperatures remain above seasonal norms through the Near Term with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s expected today and Friday and low temperatures ranging from the low 60s northwest of the Alabama River to upper 60s to around 70 southeast of I-65. The lower conditions will rise to upper MVFR/VFR into mid afternoon, then as drier air moves over the area, general VFR conditions are expected after 06z through the rest of the forecast.
237 PM MDT Thu Oct 7 2021 An elongated trough along the West Coast will engulf much of the Western US tonight into Friday as it slowly translates to the east.
Upper low currently off the coast will briefly form a closed low near San Francisco later today before the whole trough comes inland and through our area Friday.
The large scale pattern has a ridge of high pressure aloft well to our southeast over northeast Mexico and a developing trough of low pressure in the Pacific Northwest.
The low pressure system will continue its northward movement overnight, reaching near the Chicago area by daybreak Friday morning. The low-lvl convergent axis will still be in proximity of our eastern border by evening, and chance POPs are in place for those locations, but chances for showers/storms will gradually subside overnight as the boundary pushes off to our east.
So with loss of daytime heating the activity will diminish and drier air will filter in on the backside of the upper low tonight. However, a majority of the deterministic models develop a warm front along the I-70 corridor Friday and gradually lift it northward.
This Afternoon and Tonight: An strong upper trough is evident over the Mid-Mississippi Valley this afternoon as it transitions to a more open wave system and ejects to the northeast.