Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
135 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 AVIATION FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AS THE CENTER OF AN UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE SRN PLAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTING FROM THE OH/TN VALLEY TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE TAIL END OF THE TRAILING FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD HANG UP OVER NORTH FLORIDA. THIS BOUNDARY AND LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL SHIFT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWARD AND LEAD TO A DEEPER/STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FL FRI-SAT. ON SAT THE HIGHER MOISTURE BAND SHOULD REACH THE AREA AS FRONTAL TROUGH DROPS INTO NORTH FLORIDA.
AS THE LOW APPROACHES WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLOUD OVER WHICH WILL KEEP THE LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE LOW WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
WITH INCREASED CLOUDS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER TOMORROW.
THIS STORM IS INTERACTING WITH A VERY TIGHT INSTABILITY GRADIENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SHARPLY LESS INSTABILITY OVER THE HIGHWAY 81 CORRIDOR THAN POINTS WEST. COOLER AND DRIER NIGHT FOLLOWS A SIMILAR AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER TO THE NORTHWEST WHERE SKIES CLEAR FASTER.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MAINLY DRY/STABLE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL HOLD FIRM TODAY IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ESE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG A LEFTOVER BAROCLINIC ZONE. BULK OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED UNDER BENIGN NW FLOW TONIGHT WITH SEASONABLY COOL/DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. DRY/STABLE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WX ACROSS OUR AREA. THERMAL TROF FOLLOWING LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA KEEPING TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.
UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA OVERNIGHT AND DRAG A RELATIVELY DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER US FRIDAY. MODELS SUGGEST SOME RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE EAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW MAY OPEN UP AND WEAKEN SOME AS IT APPROACHES.
249 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2015 A STORM SYSTEM IS MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE JUST TO THE NORTH OF IT DOMINATING MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
344 PM MDT THU AUG 6 2015 THE TUG OF WAR BETWEEN THE WEST COAST UPPER LOW AND THE WEST TEXAS UPPER HIGH CONTINUES.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST. WITH AXIS OF TROUGH EXITING BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY. AND WHILE INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK WILL NOT RULE OUT THUNDER AT LEAST EARLY AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS.
352 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY.
1145 AM MDT THU AUG 6 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WAS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GLACIER COUNTY SO HAVE RAISED THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THAT AREA FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING AND ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER.
305 PM PDT THU AUG 6 2015 PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY.
MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEGINNING TOMORROW.
AS A RESULT, SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENSION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL HOLD FIRM PROVIDING GENERALLY FAVORABLE RADIATING CONDITIONS. PERPETUATION OF LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC/EASTERLY FLOW WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHERN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SUSTAINING A DEEP LAYERED DRY/STABLE PROFILE. A GENERAL INCREASE IN MEAN THICKNESSES WITH TIME WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT UPWARD TREND TO THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA.
1216 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2015 A little break in the stormy pattern will give us a day to dry out, but warmer temperatures and rain chances will return for the weekend. Prevailing pattern across the Nation is dominated by a low amplitude ridge/trough pattern with modest troughs across either coast and a ridge across the Plains States.
250 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2015 THE FULL INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE FELT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MEANDERS AROUND THE REGION.
226 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2015 THE 19Z IR/VISIBLE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A WEAK UPPER LOW WAS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WAS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. THE SHORT TERM MODELS PROGRESSIVELY MOVE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THE WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DECENT DRYING IN THE LOW TO MID LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND WILL DROP MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THE NORTHWEST LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION.
540 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO FRIDAY. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY WITH THE TROUGH RUN FROM CENTRAL NEWBERRY COUNTY THROUGH BURKE COUNTY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH. HOWEVER WITH LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH HIGH MOISTURE IN PLACE EXPECT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MORNING.
AXIS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROF IS WELL EAST BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND UPSTREAM UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES STAYING WELL TO OUR NORTH.
253 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.
REGIONAL OBS INDICATE A MAIN SFC CONVERGENCE AXIS ALONG THE SW FLANK OF THE DEPARTING UPR TROUGH (CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH ERN KY). CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR PUSH THROUGH THE AREA.
1245 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2015 CLOSED LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A BROAD TROUGH INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PRAIRIES OF CANADA WITH A STRONG WAVE MOVING UNDERNEATH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. CONVECTION BEING AIDED BY THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 40 TO 45KTS. WAVE OVER MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A 700MB CLOSED LOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE 700MB TROUGH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND 80S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH A 90 FOR KVTN.
1204 PM MDT THU AUG 6 2015 MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD BANDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA AND LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH COMING ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
559 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2015 A STORM SYSTEM IS MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE JUST TO THE NORTH OF IT DOMINATING MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
226 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO FRIDAY. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS ONE BAND OF SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST S/W APPROACHING THE COAST AND ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME HAIL WITH COLD POOL/STEEPING LAPSE RATES APPROACHING WITH TROUGH. UPPER TROUGH. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW LIKELY RANGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. THINK UPPER LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH HIGH MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MORNING.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS A BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. STARTED TO LOWER POPS IN NW AL AROUND 21Z AS THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS NW AL. MANY SITES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR PUSH THROUGH THE AREA.
404 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2015 CURRENT SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS INDICATES A LOW MOVING TO THE EAST ACROSS EASTERN SD WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHED OUT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. WITH A COUPLE HEALTHY MESOCYCLONES. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING AND SHIFT THE CONVECTION FARTHER EAST INTO WISCONSIN.
200 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH FRIDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. MINS WILL BE MILDER AND RANGE FROM THE MID 50S CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S LOWER SUSQ. AS CENTRAL PA WILL BE IN REGION OF LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE ON EAST SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE OVR THE MISS VALLEY.
SIGNS OF SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO AGAIN BUILD ALOFT ARE PRESENT IN THE ELEVATED INVERSION AT 500 MB. WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE LESS COVERAGE OF SH/TS AFTER TODAY AS A STACKED RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE HEAT BACK WITH IT. BUT THIS TIME DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER. THERE IS ALWAYS A TRADE OFF AS HIGHER DDEWPOINTTEMPS DOES NOT ALLOW FOR EXTREME HEATING BUT COOLER DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL.
1231 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2015 A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT.
AND IS CURRENTLY IN A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST LINE ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE HIGHER CLOUD TOPS TO THE EAST. AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST.
The persistent sub tropical ridge is centered over New Mexico and will slowly edge east the next couple of days.
Gusty winds across the Northern Rockies will diminish after 2100 as low pressure in Canada and its associated front move east of the divide resulting in weaker pressure gradients. Weak high pressure establishes itself overnight. The cooler, drier, stable air mass will help to form some valley inversions which in turn will contribute to a chilly start to Friday. Some of the lower valleys, like the Bitterroots, Missoula, Seeley/Swan valleys could approach 40 degrees.
414 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY CENTER OVER EAST TEXAS DURING THE WEEKEND.
THE LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND REACH SOUTHERN IDAHO LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL DRAW MOISTURE NORTH FROM ARIZONA AND INTO UTAH BEGINNING TONIGHT.
359 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST OHIO WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THIS EVENING. THIS TROF WILL ATTEMPT TO TOP THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEAST. THE TROF SHOULD THEN MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BECOME REESTABLISHED OVER THE FRONT RANGE FROM COLORADO WELL NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN INTERIOR. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSIT THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER AND THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF RAIN OR SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
129 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WITH READINGS CLOSE TO 80 IN THE WARMER VALLEYS OF NE PA.
AN ANALYSIS OF THE 850MB 00Z CHART DEPICTED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR EAST. WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING. THE 500 MB CHART ALSO DEPICTED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION. AS WELL AS AN AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS AROUND A DEEPENING TROUGH NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE 850 MB LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
258 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.
208 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. A NARROW WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. THOUGH THE EXTRA SUN ALONE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH MODEST INSTABILITY. THERE IS STILL A TORNADO THREAT WHERE THE WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT. SEEMS THE GENERAL TREND IN THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS TO SEE A QUASI-FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION BECOME A RATHER AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. BUT COOLER TEMPS LIKELY RESIDE OVER THE CWA IN THE FRONT END OF THE OUT PERIODS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
458 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO FRIDAY. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS ONE BAND OF SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST S/W APPROACHING THE COAST AND ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME HAIL WITH COLD POOL/STEEPING LAPSE RATES APPROACHING WITH TROUGH. UPPER TROUGH. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW LIKELY RANGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. THINK UPPER LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH HIGH MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MORNING.
415 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 AN LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL PULL EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT.
WEAK RIDGING HAS PRODUCED WARM AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY PRODUCING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INTERIOR AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS APPROACHING THE AREA WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LATER TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE MOVING AROUND AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN MENDOCINO COUNTY. FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
245 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS LOW PRESSURE A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE CWA WHILE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW A BOUNDARY WAS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL SD AN INTO THE WESTERN CWA. FRIDAY SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 MPH AND SEASONAL HUMIDITY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
917 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
1031 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT LEAVING THE AREA IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS FOR SUNDAY.
634 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015 WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OVER MN AND WI PUTS THE CWFA SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE UPPER 70S THIS MORNING. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A STRONG WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE DAKOTAS. GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY ALREADY IN PLACE. A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. AS THE COLD FRONT ENHANCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW.
1204 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SE ALABAMA REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHEAST US AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. VERY MOIST AIR REMAINS TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE UNDERNEATH THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS THE LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CONTROL WX AT BOTH TAF SITES.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL NOSE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY, RESULTING IN A MOSTLY DRY NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE REGION. THUS SHOULD SEE GENERALLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH WARMER HIGH TEMPS. A WEAK WAVE WITHIN THIS FLOW MAY CAUSE A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP IN LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN WALLOWA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.
804 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THIS WEEKEND.
BUOYS SHOWING 10-15 MPH NORTHEAST WINDS MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WALLMANN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KGUY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015/ UPPER HIGH TO BUILD WEST TODAY TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES MAINLY LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE SUNDAY.
637 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015 MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION IS FORECAST BY SHORT TERM MODELS TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AND AMPLIFY TODAY. WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION WILL STRENGTHEN/VEER TO THE NORTHWEST -- WITH AT LEAST A MINOR INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL ASCENT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE REGION AS A DISTURBANCE RIDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS MAY LEAD TO A GREATER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION AND HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LOW CHANCE RANGE FOR THIS REGION. VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED IN THIS REGION.
High pressure remains centered over the southern states. Highs today will be near seasonal values ranging from the low to mid 90s. the combination of a tropical air mass and recent rains will keep dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s creating very humid conditions with heat index values across the region ranging from 99 to 109 degrees during the afternoon hours. The highest heat index values are forecast along the Kansas-Missouri border on into central Missouri. Highs will be a degree or two warmer and should be in the mid 90s across the entire area. With dewpoints continuing in the low to mid 70s. it will suppress the upper level ridge just enough to allow a surface boundary to move into the region on Sunday.
1036 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSING INTO THE AREA WILL MAKE FOR THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 100S. HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTH. AND EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA.
1101 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND THE CATSKILLS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL TOP 90 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES DUE TO THE HIGH HUMIDITY. THE INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE STRONG STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. DID LITTLE WITH TEMPS, WITH MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE 90-92 RANGE, AND ELEVATIONS 84 TO 88.
958 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015 UPPER LOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. WITH A WIDESPREAD AREA OF FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S THIS MORNING.
705 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK. MIXING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON MAY CAUSE THEM TO DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S. GIVEN HOW GREEN AND MOIST IT IS AT GROUND LEVEL CANNOT SEE TEMPS GETTING WARMER THAN GUIDANCE NUMBERS TODAY. BETTER CHANCES WILL COME SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ESPECIALLY THOSE AFFECTED BY THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. TO THE LOW/MID 70S ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. THIS IN TURN IS GOING TO SET UP THE AREA FOR YET ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90F AS REGION IS STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD H5 RIDGE STRETCHING OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. A PROGGED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SINK SOUTH THRU THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECTING TRW CONDITIONS TO BEGIN TO WANE BY 06Z- 08Z SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WORKING OVER AREA.
745 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THIS WEEKEND.
TODAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER MID 90S INLAND OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND IT WILL EASILY BE VERY HUMID. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT COMES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BRING YET COOLER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE OF THIS COMING WEEK. IT WOULD SEE WE DO HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT GIVEN THE COLD FRONT IS COMING THROUGH.
ATLC RIDGE AXIS OVER S FL WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK FRONTAL TROF OVER N FL TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE S/SWRLY BREEZE OVER THE LCL ATLC.
823 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT LEAVING THE AREA IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS FOR SUNDAY.
758 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO BRING INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO THE AREA. FOR TODAY THE BERMUDA RIDGE/INLAND TROUGH SUMMERTIME PATTERN BEGINS TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH LIFTS AND DISSIPATES. AT THE UPPER LEVELS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL DIVE OVER AN H/5 RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S FOR MOST PLACES. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE.