Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 49 72 47 / 20 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 47 66 44 / 20 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 64 48 67 44 / 20 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 44 60 39 / 80 30 10 0.
The showers will end tonight as an upper low moves east into the Appalachians and high pressure builds in.
TFJ An upper level low moving over the desert southwest will continue to spin showers northward into southern Montana. The northern stream trof will push a stronger front across the region this afternoon with the potential for a few more showers. A weak ridge sets up over northeast Montana Saturday, bringing drier conditions back to the region with deep westerly flow.
1118 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 A cold front will cross the area through early afternoon. High pressure will prevail over the area through the weekend.
Some patchy drizzle and a few showers will linger this morning as low pressure slowly pulls away. VFR conditions are then expected through Saturday as high pressure builds in from the northwest. forecast confidence is high: Low pressure centered over northern IN and OH this morning will continue to pull away to the east today while high pressure builds in from the northwest. Clouds will hang around through the day, with clearing skies northwest to southeast this evening as the drier air arrives with the high. Temps will be below normal today due to the clouds and a cooler airmass in place. Drier air with high pressure building into the region on Saturday will help to scour out the clouds for much of the day. Temps will be cooler near Lake Michigan due to a lake breeze.
706 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Low pressure will push east across the area this afternoon allowing the chance of showers to persist.
1021 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017 An area of low pressure situated across central Ohio had a cold front extending southward from it, now positioned from east of Columbus OH, Atlanta and Apalachicola. Drier and cooler air filtering to the south, west of the front was coming from high pressure across southern Canada. Somewhat cooler conditions prevailed across the greater Tennessee Valley this morning, with 10 AM temperatures in the mid/upper 50s and west to northwest winds of 10-20 mph. An issue today concerning the local weather regards post system stratus covering an area south and west of the Ohio cyclone. The ridge building over the region will keep dry, sunny, and seasonably warm temperatures for Saturday with daytime highs in the low 70s.
917 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 One cold front moves across this afternoon, followed by another tonight.
610 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Latest water vapor imagery depicts an approaching mid-level ridge over the Central Plains, which will maintain dry conditions throughout Friday and much of Saturday across the area.
632 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2017 A cold front will push south through the region this morning.
/12Z TAF CYCLE/ VFR conditions prevail across the region as the lower stratus deck continues to erode to the south and east this morning. Winds should relax as high pressure settles over the are overnight tonight. Another closed low over the Big Bed region will bring high clouds across the area Thursday but a lack of low level moisture should prevent any rain chances.
The latest surface map features low pressure moving across central Alabama, with another center passing across southwestern Quebec. High pressure is situated near the southwestern CONUS. Aloft, troughing is aligned from the Great Lakes downs across the mid- Mississippi Valley and then into the Desert Southwest. Temperatures have remained well above freezing across most locations in eastern Kentucky, with the exception of the higher elevations bordering Virginia, where light snow is falling close to the 2500 feet elevation mark or just lower. Ground temperatures remain above freezing; however, readings will continue to edge lower towards dawn. Temperatures will be cooler today, with highs ranging from the low to mid 40s, with clouds attempting to partially clear late. The extended looks to start off warm and dry, as a ridge of high pressure should be in place across the region.
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible due to the high shear/marginal instability environment. Main concern will be over the higher elevations of north Georgia where near Wind Advisory conditions are possible. Expected temperatures are slightly warmer than previously forecast as clearing is expected during peak insolation/heating today. Although north Georgia may settle in the 50s, the southern zones could see temperatures in the low 70s. Chilly temperatures return overnight tonight, and the cooler air mass over the area Thursday will keep temperatures in the 50s and low 60s.
402 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017 A sunny and warmer day will occur today. The airmass will continue drying in weak north-northwesterly flow behind the upper low trekking east through the deep south. We continue to favor high temperatures slightly warmer than blended solutions for today.
A weak cold front will progress eastward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. Rain chances will increase this afternoon well ahead of the aforementioned feeble cold front.
This will play out to highs in the lower/mid 40s east of the Interstate 29 corridor to upper 50s over south central SD. What will likely make this warm spell so unique is the overall lack of any strong winds, and extreme nature of the low level thermal ridge. Temperatures will start their jump on Thursday as mid-level ridging with 500 heights 1-2 SD from normal sliding into the central US.
A warm front was extending to the east, roughly parallel to the Intestate 20 corridor, and the cold front was trailing southward along the AL/MS state line. Temperatures may not rise too much today in response to weak CAA, with highs only reaching into the lower 50s. Pleasant conditions will continue through the remainder of the work week as an upper ridge builds into the forecast area. Meanwhile, high pressure will develop along the Gulf Coast and southerly flow will return to the area by Thursday afternoon.
High pressure will be building over northern and central New Mexico today.
Temperatures will turn briefly cooler as an upper trough digs into the great lakes.
An associated surface wave cyclone and trailing cold front are moving eastward across the Deep South and Gulf of Mexico at this hour, with slowly developing southerly low-level flow across the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters. Forcing for ascent associated with the large-scale trough will remain strongest well north of the Florida Keys, and actually will begin diminishing slowly by midday at this latitude. A weak cold front will have enough momentum in the boundary layer to reach the Keys by tonight, likely preceded by a few broken, but fast-moving shower lines. An outside chance for a thunderstorm remains, but any isolated storms likely would develop over warmer water offshore, south of the Keys island chain.
501 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017 Upper level trough continues to pull out of the region with plenty of wrap around moisture and low clouds still blanketing our CWA early this morning. This low cloud cover has resulted in areas of patchy light rain and drizzle persisting overnight and will carry this chance into the mid to late morning hours across most of our eastern zones. A warming trend will begin taking shape beginning Thursday with upper ridge setting up over the region.
A cold front will push across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula today with a broken band of showers and a few thunderstorms moving across the forecast area.
/issued 359 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017/ Low level clouds remain entrenched across the area this morning as the cold front that brought the squall line yesterday has moved into the Florida panhandle. Thursday looks very pleasant as high pressure settles over the region.
Very warm airmass will be enhanced by downslope flow with the ridge moving east.
Local radar imagery and surface observations show the cold front extending roughly along a line from east of Camden to near Atmore and Bay Minette to east of Mobile as of 4 A. Much cooler temperatures are anticipated in the wake of the frontal passage today. Highs should range from the lower 60s west to the mid to upper 60s east. Lows tonight are forecast to range from the mid to upper 30s inland to the lower to mid 40s near the immediate coast.
The ridge currently over the northern Rockies will remain the dominant feature affecting the weather across the central high plains region over the next couple days. The apex of the upper ridge in the northern branch of the upper flow translates over the northern plains and decreases in amplitude while a low center in the southern branch emerges over west Texas by late Thursday.
We will see a return to dry and seasonably cool conditions today/tonight as an area of high pressure works slowly east from the Plains. However, what looks to be the start of a major warming trend will get underway on Thu as the high sinks southward toward the Gulf Coast and surface winds become more southwesterly. Mid/upper level ridging will build east into the region by late week, assuring a continuation of the dry and unusually mild weather conditions.
We are generally looking at afternoon temperatures ranging from the upper 40s over the eastern Ozarks to the lower 50s over western Missouri and southeastern Kansas. The well-advertised warming trend will commence on Thursday as upper level ridging begins.
The cold front came through late yesterday evening with limited precipitation, but wind gusts did briefly peak out in the 30 to 40 MPH range during the passage. Large upper level low slow to exit off the New England Coast on Thursday, and low level thermal trough over Lower Michigan looks to persist (925 mb temps of -5 to -7 C), keeping maxes near normal in the lower 30s.
Today and tonight: Cooler and drier. Early morning surface analysis had a 1004mb low just east of Columbus Mississippi near the Alabama state line with a cold front extending south off the Mississippi coast. Cooler and drier air will continue to filter into our CWA today in the wake of the cold front but a few sprinkles will be possible until after mid morning. Despite some afternoon insolation, temperatures will be held below normal today with highs from the mid 50s north to the lower 60s southeast. Near calm wind and mostly clear skies will allow for near freezing temperatures in the east to mid 30s elsewhere.
545 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017 Forecast area currently between departing mid-level trough over the Great Lakes and ridge of high pressure building in from the Western CONUS. Mid-level ridge and warming Plains air begins to move into the area Thursday with highs expected to to top off in the 30 to middle 40s.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 32 56 35 / 40 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 29 53 35 / 60 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 50 27 54 34 / 40 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 26 48 30 / 80 0 0 0.
Little change with clear skies and light northwest flow as high pressure moves in. Upper ridging to move in late this week bringing more dry weather the next several days with warmer temps into the 50s and 60s for highs this weekend. mostly sunny to sunny and cooler but still slightly above normal most locations. Highs in the middle 30s far north and northeast into the lower 40s most locations in the southwest 1/2 to 2/3 of the forecast area. Lows in the lower 20s north and east to the middle/upper 20s south and west with a light to moderate frost expected toward morning most locations by daybreak. If anything the models are playing catch up with the high temps and could be even higher than what is currently forecast.
Issued by National Weather Service Shreveport LA 940 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017 Water vapor imagery shows a trough of low pressure moving across the Eastern half of the US this morning. with the associated cold front pushing south along the gulf coast. cooler and drier air will filter into the region today. with temperatures running 10 to 18 degrees cooler today than those of yesterday. believe most areas will dip to around freezing tonight.
Upper ridge is beginning to give way as the developing storm over the eastern Pacific approaches NorCal.
High pressure will then build in for the beginning of the weekend with drier and warmer conditions expected. The cold front crossing the ridges is helping to produce brief rain/snow showers. A deepening upper low projected to cross into New York this evening will reinforce colder air across the area. The combination of colder air with sufficient moisture in the low levels will assist generating more snow showers across the favorable upslope areas. Given the quick breakdown of the inversion height from model soundings as high pressure is progged to build late tonight, snow accumulation should overall remain below advisory criteria. Building high pressure should end the snow showers later on Thursday and keep temperatures slightly cooler than average.
Southwest winds will increase to 20 to 25 knots today ahead of an approaching cold front and preceding band of showers and storms.
SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): Mid level ridge will continue to build over South Texas today and Thursday as upstream trough deepens significantly as it dives south across NW Mexico. High pressure builds over South Texas tonight with a clear and cool night in store with model guidance suggesting 40s for all areas with exception to the immediate coast where lower 50s prevail. Temperatures recover into the low to mid 70s but with the light nature of return flow humidity to remain on the lower side. A gradual increase in mid and high level cloudiness is expected through the day as next upstream mid level trough digs into NW Mexico.
Good radiational cooling expected tonight with light winds and mostly clear skies, which will allow temperatures to fall into the low to mid 30s by daybreak.
One more dry and warm day is expected as high pressure begins to break down. The first in a series of low pressure systems will bring unsettled weather beginning Thursday, lasting through the weekend.
High pressure will then build in for the beginning of the weekend with drier and warmer conditions expected. Cold front bi-secting the area will stream brief showers through the area. This could generate a few light snow showers north of Pittsburgh and eventually into the Ridges as moisture pools southward and inversions deepen. Northwest flow established under the broad trough will persist through the balance of the work week. Highest amounts call for about 1-3" in a 12 hour period for the high elevations and northern tier of counties.
530 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017 Early morning analysis showed a weak cold front moving south across the area. Satellite imagery is showing broken-overcast cirrus over the southeast half of the CWA which is occurring on the north side of the upper low currently near the Bootheel. These upper clouds are shifting southeastward as the upper low moves east.
/Issued 333 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017/ An upper ridge will build in from the west through Thursday with a closed upper low forecast to dig south today over northwest Mexico and then track east across Mexico Thursday.
/Today through Tonight/ No Hazardous WX Impacts Expected Confidence: High 09z Water vapor imagery picking up on a well-defined upper low spinning in Canada just east of the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a huge thermal ridge that extends well into Canada has been building over the intermountain west. a solid 5 or so degrees cooler than yesterday morning. Temps have been trending warmer and warmer with each model package, so have jumped ahead and upped temperatures over guidance by a few degrees. Though we won't fully mix this high, given that we hit 52 degrees in Des Moines yesterday with 850mb temps near +0C, it is looking like Thursday will begin our first day of what could end up being upwards of 6-8 days in a row of temperatures in the 60s in Des Moines.
/issued 501 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017/ Upper level trough continues to pull out of the region with plenty of wrap around moisture and low clouds still blanketing our CWA early this morning. This low cloud cover has resulted in areas of patchy light rain and drizzle persisting overnight and will carry this chance into the mid to late morning hours across most of our eastern zones. A warming trend will begin taking shape beginning Thursday with upper ridge setting up over the region.
321 AM PST Wed Feb 15 2017 High pressure will bring dry weather and mild afternoon temperatures to the district today with night and morning fog in the San Joaquin Valley. The upper ridge axis is centered over central California this morning with some high level clouds spilling into the ridge. The ridge will shift east tonight as the first in a series of storm systems approaches from the northwest.
An area of high pressure currently over the tri-state region of ND, SD, and MN has produced light and variable winds. A backdoor cold front, currently along the Missouri River, will push east of the region as low level winds become southwesterly. The winds will draw warmer air into the region with high temperatures reaching the 40s and 50s for most locations. Warmer temps will continue to filter into the region on Thursday with highs climbing into the 50s and 60s. Thursday is when an upper level ridge is located over the region with 850, 700, 500 mb temps at or above the 99th percentile.
The upper level ridge will transition to southwesterly flow over the region with the next weather system approaching from the west. Precipitation will expand eastward during Thursday which will mostly be rain, but there is still a chance for freezing rain in valley locations. Confidence is fairly low on freezing rain since model guidance either show temperatures rising above freezing during the rain or do not produce precipitation until later in the day. The cold front is forecast to pass Thursday night so snow levels will drop and there may be an intensification in precipitation as the atmosphere destabilizes.
615 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2017 Low pressure moving into the forecast area this morning will merge with a cold front and move off the coast this afternoon.
High pressure aloft from Nevada to western Montana was being suppressed to the south. Winds should decrease some this afternoon as the low level stable layer eases, but increase again tonight as this stable layer returns. Would not be surprised to see a couple 60 degree highs today, but guidance did come in a little cooler. Thursday will be mild again, but 700mb temperatures do cool a touch, so highs should be similar to today, if not a couple of degrees cooler. A weak cold front will push through the area Thursday night as heights fall and fragmented energy streams across western and central zones.
Slight cold air advection associated with a sharp trough over the Great Lakes region has allowed temperatures to drop slightly over the area this morning. Warm air advection will be underway shortly as an amplified upper ridge over the western states builds toward the central US.
546 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017 A ridge of cold high pressure is settling into the forecast area this morning on the heels of yesterday's cold front passage. Highs today to get into the high teens and 20s for most locations, but probably the coldest day of this work week. Upper level ridging will start to impact the Northland starting Thursday night, with the upper level ridge remaining dominant into the first part of the weekend.
435 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017 The upper low has filled and is moving east of the area taking the precipitation with it, so quieter weather is expected for a couple of days.
Water Vapor satellite trends early this morning place an upper level low over the Mid-South. As of 3 AM CST, temperatures across the Mid-South are predominantly in the lower to middle 40s. KNQA WSR-88D indicates a few residual rain showers on the backside of the upper level low this morning.
with winds becoming light and variable overnight as high pressure settles across the state. Southerly winds will return for Thu as the high shifts east.
323 AM MST Wed Feb 15 2017 An amplified ridge over the Intermountain West continued to bring drying to the area overnight. Strong radiational cooling resulted in temperatures which were, on average, about 5 degrees cooler than the night before. The ridge axis will drift eastward today bringing a couple of degrees of warming at the 7H level. The same holds true for Thursday as the flattened ridge axis moves overhead bringing another degree of warming at 700 mb. However, GFS MOS does appear to be on point with sub- freezing highs in the Gunnison Basin as the stagnant, snow covered valley continues to radiate energy away tonight.
Pacific high pressure will quickly build in tonight and slide east placing Middle TN back in southerly sfc flow by Thursday afternoon.
High pressure aloft will maintain dry and mild conditions across the region today.
Mostly clear skies and dry conditions will be found across western Kansas through tonight as an upper level ridge builds over the western United States and high pressure dominates the Central High Plains at the surface. Winds will start out from a westerly direction this morning shifting to the southwest by this evening as a trough of low pressure develops across eastern Colorado. Winds then shift back to a westerly direction by sunrise tomorrow as this trough slides eastward. Highs today look to reach into the upper 50s with lows tonight dipping to around freezing.
Temperatures holding nearly steady in the lower and middle 20s with weak cold air advection continuing through mid afternoon.
A bit warmer over the non-snow covered far southern RRV and then over central ND where warmer air is moving in. For today there is considerable high cloudiness upstream and do look for that to drop south-southeast over the area as 925-850-700 mb warm advection moves in east of the building 500 mb ridge. Still expect to see some sun through the high clouds though with with enough wind developing this aftn should see enough mixing to allow temps to recover into the upper 20s in the far east to low 40s southwest.
Cool and dry airmass in place for the short term as high pressure moves into the area. Did cool temperatures further heading into tonight as the high settles and winds become light. Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue through today, gradually weakening from north to south this afternoon and evening as high pressure begins to settle into the region.
High pressure will then build in for the beginning of the weekend with drier and warmer conditions expected. Showers will continue to stream just north of the area this morning as a cold front descends through the Great Lakes. This could generate a few light snow showers north of Pittsburgh and eventually into the Ridges as moisture pools southward and inversions deepen. Northwest flow established under the broad trough will persist through the balance of the work week. Highest amounts call for about 1-3" in a 12 hour period for the high elevations and northern tier of counties.
420 AM MST Wed Feb 15 2017 Dry and warmer weather returns today as the upper ridge continues to nose over top east-west oriented trof across the southern U. Exception will be the San Luis Valley and southwest and central mountains where temperatures will be similar to a degree or two warmer. Should be warmer tonight along the lee of the mountains were lee troffing and some enhanced westerly drainage flow will continue.
524 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017 Sharp ridge over the western CONUS between Aleutian low and upper low over the Great Lakes. Ridge extends over western Canada and north to the Arctic Circle. Strong upper level ridging across much of the western US will keep conditions dry across Nebraska through the end of the week and into the weekend.
/issued 402 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017/ A sunny and warmer day will occur today. The airmass will continue drying in weak north-northwesterly flow behind the upper low trekking east through the deep south. We continue to favor high temperatures slightly warmer than blended solutions for today.