Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
252 PM EDT Fri Sep 16 2022 The warm front attached to a low pressure system centered over nw MN remains situated across Lake Superior and the Keweenaw this afternoon. These areas have mostly stayed in the cooler 60s. Patchy dense fog over the Keweenaw could lift some in the next few hours as showers moving over the area stir up the low-levels.
(This evening through Saturday) Showers and isolated thunderstorms have continued this afternoon across interior to coastal SETX due to a weak trough and activity moving inland from a stalled boundary over the coastal waters. By tonight, we will be left with slightly warmer lows in the mid 60s to low 70s along the immediate coast under mostly clear skies. A ridge will begin to build in which will reduce, but not completely prohibit, rain chances. Overnight we will only see temps drop into the upper 60s to 70s while afternoon temps by the end of the short term will be in the low to mid 90s.
This flow aloft will help strengthen the lee trough and associated southerly surface flow this afternoon. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer owing to the warm air advection, so widespread low 70s are likely across the area. Increasing mid-level heights tomorrow will help get highs in the low to mid 90s.
Warm and humid conditions characterize the forecast through the short term with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and peak heat indices near or in excess of 100 degrees for areas primarily along and east of I-35. Very muggy conditions will again be expected tonight and again Saturday night with overnight lows generally in the low to mid 70s.
However, given the magnitude and coverage of fog the last few nights, a slight hold-back to radiative cooling likely won't significantly limit fog potential, especially in rural areas near fields where crop evapotranspiration is maximized, and in low- lying sheltered areas where drainage and locally cooler temperatures occur.
Upper level ridging stretching from Texas across the Deep South and Gulf of Mexico will remain in place through at least tomorrow, keeping our temperatures warmer than normal, and the forecast dry.
Fcst min temps in the 50s are a few degrees warmer vs.
250 PM EDT Fri Sep 16 2022 High pressure will build from Ontario to New England through Saturday, extending southward into the Mid-Atlantic.
102 PM EDT Fri Sep 16 2022 High pressure will maintain dry weather with above normal temperature through most of the weekend.
A closed upper level low will dig southward along the OR/CA coastline Saturday, placing the Northern Rockies under the influence of southerly flow.
1218 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022 (Today through Saturday afternoon) The trough that brought some rainfall across southeast New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin yesterday evening will eject into the Upper Midwest today. A second, much weaker, trough will move into the Central Rockies by this afternoon. Otherwise, heights begin to slowly build as the ridge strengthens, putting an end to precipitation chances on Saturday. Afternoon high temperatures in the low to mid 90s with morning low temperatures in the mid to upper 60s can be expected for much of the area.
1127 AM EDT Fri Sep 16 2022 High pressure will maintain dry weather through most of the weekend.
421 PM EDT Fri Sep 16 2022 High pressure will maintain dry weather with above normal temperature through most of the weekend.
142 PM EDT Fri Sep 16 2022 High pressure will keep our area dry and seasonal into the weekend. High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic and OH River Valley continues to slowly drift over the area in conjunction with a mid-level ridge. Diurnal swing will be quite large with clear skies and low dewpoints overnight, bringing overnight lows tonight into the lower 50s. Such strong radiative cooling will also contribute to patchy dense valley fog especially west of the Blue Ridge Saturday morning. By the second half of the weekend, 500mb flow will become more zonal as upper level ridging begins to build in the central US, before spreading into the Southeast US for the beginning of the work week.
Temperatures this afternoon will top out in the mid 50s to mid 60s for most of the forecast area, although the far southwest will touch the low 70s with clearing skies allowing for a bit more heating. Saturday will be a bit warmer, albeit still below average with most locations struggling to become warmer than the mid 60s. The west will be the exception as the mercury rises into the low 70s due to skies clearing out in the afternoon once again.
An upper trough will move across the forecast area this afternoon through this evening.
Warmer temperatures are anticipated overnight with a southerly breeze forecast to continue across most of the area. Temperatures are forecast to be above normal through the whole forecast period as an upper level ridge builds overhead.
Skies are expected to clear overnight, but we'll modify low temps by a degree or two, still dropping down into the low to mid 60s.
Enjoy! (Today through Saturday) High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern through the short term with dry conditions and mostly clear skies.
High pressure is forecast to persist and maintain dominance over our region for the foreseeable future, keeping conditions dry, clear, and calm. Overnight is likely once again to have river valley fog develop, aided by the suppressive ridge and calm winds. Temperatures will continue their slow climb upwards, and will be a degree or two warmer tomorrow. Discussion: A strong ridge centered near TX/AR will keep the region hot and dry this week. At the surface, high pressure over the Southeast will weaken late this week.
(This afternoon through Saturday night) Tranquil weather conditions will be felt all across W TX as ridge center over Chihuahua coupled with deep mid-upper layer subsidence will create an arduous task for any convection to fire this PM. Tomorrow will be a touch warmer as 850mb temps poke a bit higher than today, but chance of precip will be next to nil, so a nice start to the weekend.
(Tonight) High pressure remains in place over the area, with the only sky cover being some scattered bands of Cu that have developed this afternoon.
Water vapor loops suggest the inverted trough has weakened and tracking west which might be the limiting ingredient. Weather pattern remains persistent with exception to the midâlevel inverted trough dampens out and 500mb ridge builds in.
417 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022 Tranquil but very warm weather will continue the rest of today through much of the weekend, as the region remains under the influence of high pressure centered over the central Appalachian Mountains.
Slightly warmer highs expected this afternoon compared to yesterday, with a downward temperature trend returning into the weekend as troughing continues to build over interior NorCal ahead of a storm system.
655 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022 (Tonight) High pressure remains in place over the area, with the only sky cover being some scattered bands of Cu that have developed this afternoon.
A recent surface analysis depicts a stationary front draped from west to east across the northern third of Nebraska, also serving as a cutoff between much warmer temperatures to the south and temperatures in the upper 60s to low- 70s to the north where low cloud cover limited any warming.
Upper-lvl ridge slowly begins to build over the region, thus more subsidence will impact convection initiation/coverage throughout the day. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal with highs mostly from the low to mid 90s.
619 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022 (This afternoon through Saturday night) Tranquil weather conditions will be felt all across W TX as ridge center over Chihuahua coupled with deep mid-upper layer subsidence will create an arduous task for any convection to fire this PM. Tomorrow will be a touch warmer as 850mb temps poke a bit higher than today, but chance of precip will be next to nil, so a nice start to the weekend.
908 PM EDT Fri Sep 16 2022 High pressure will maintain dry weather with above normal temperature through most of the weekend.
Dry conditions persist overnight as high pressure remains to the northeast. Expecting lows slightly warmer than last night but still below normal. Warmer temperatures on Saturday as low level thicknesses and 850 temps increase. Skies are expected to clear overnight, but we'll modify low temps by a degree or two, still dropping down into the low to mid 60s.
Tranquil but very warm weather will continue the rest of today through much of the weekend, as the region remains under the influence of high pressure centered over the central Appalachian Mountains.
544 PM MDT Fri Sep 16 2022 19z surface analysis had lee trough from central MT into western NE, where low pressure was developing. Low will deepen some through the evening hours as it lifts northeast, taking warm front along for the ride. 0-6km bulk shear increasing, forecast to reach 30-40kts this evening near warm front.
Southwest flow over the Panhandles will continue today and Saturday as we slowly build towards a ridge that will be over the area in the extended.
720 PM EDT Fri Sep 16 2022 High pressure will maintain dry weather with above normal temperature through most of the weekend.
A broad trough currently situated over the western CONUS will continue to bring a dry westerly flow through the weekend. With the troughing remaining in place through the weekend, temperatures will continue to run near to slightly below normal with highs across the lower deserts of Arizona ranging between 97-102 degrees while across southeast California it will range in the middle to upper 90s. The dry air mass in place will also allow for more efficient radiational cooling during the night and thus temperatures across the lower deserts outside of the urban corridors will be able to cool down to more comfortable levels, in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.
(Rest of tonight) Quiet/tranquil wx conditions prevail across the central TN Valley this Fri evening, as high pressure remains layered across the middle/southern Atlantic states. An upper ridge also remains in place over the central/eastern Gulf states.
928 PM EDT Fri Sep 16 2022 High pressure will build from Ontario to New England through Saturday, extending southward into the Mid-Atlantic.
Blended most recent T/Td obs into the forecast and made some minor adjustments to sky cover with some low/mid level clouds advecting off the higher terrain of East TN, otherwise, the forecast remains mostly untouched. High pressure is forecast to persist and maintain dominance over our region for the foreseeable future, keeping conditions dry, clear, and calm. Overnight is likely once again to have river valley fog develop, aided by the suppressive ridge and calm winds. Temperatures will continue their slow climb upwards, and will be a degree or two warmer tomorrow. Discussion: A strong ridge centered near TX/AR will keep the region hot and dry this week. At the surface, high pressure over the Southeast will weaken late this week.
Mostly clear skies overnight with lows in the upper 50s for the upper plateau to the lower 60s.
733 PM EDT Fri Sep 16 2022 The warm front attached to a low pressure system centered over nw MN remains situated across Lake Superior and the Keweenaw this afternoon. These areas have mostly stayed in the cooler 60s. Patchy dense fog over the Keweenaw could lift some in the next few hours as showers moving over the area stir up the low-levels. Upper air pattern will consist of a broad 500 mb trough across the western U. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb closed low off the CA coast embedded in a western U. trough 12z Tue with a ridge across the central U. and a trough in New England. The trough in the western U.
Temperatures are forecast to be above normal through the whole forecast period as an upper level ridge builds overhead.
The 00z evening sounding revealed falling geopotential heights aloft, with slightly rising heights in the low-levels. With that said, given the upper-level support for large-scale ascent via a trough in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and a loaded atmospheric profile, all it will take is a trigger for convective initiation and possible explosion. From synopsis, easterly breezes will become gentle to moderate at times overnight through Saturday night, as high pressure moves across the Southeastern United States.
631 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022 (This evening through Saturday Night) A weak upper trough axis is currently moving east across the Plains and approaching the Mississippi River. However, convective coverage should be lower as the upper trough axis will be far to the east and an upper ridge will be building over North Texas. Otherwise, with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies and increasing subsidence from the developing ridge, daytime high temperatures will climb another one or two degrees higher, especially over Louisiana and Southern Arkansas where the amount of cloud cover will be the lowest. Most locations should warm into the lower 90s for daytime highs on Saturday.
649 PM EDT Fri Sep 16 2022 A broad area of high pressure centered over the Appalachians will maintain dry conditions over the area with broad south to southwest flow around this high prevailing. Anti-cyclonic flow in the lower half of the troposphere continues to sustain mild conditions across the southern Great Lakes region. The geopotential ridge axis is loosening grip farther aloft, allowing for moisture transport and cloud development. The longwave ridge will maintain its meridionally upstream tilt with only a slight drift eastward through much of the weekend.
1236 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022 High pressure will continue to influence the weather pattern through Sunday.
An upper low pressure system will close off as it moves southward, ending up off the California coast this weekend.
Dew points in the upper 50s and lower 60s, so temperatures will at worst be that low but more likely lows will be in the lower and middle 60s thanks to the southerly winds.
The strongest convergence will continue to focus over the local coastal waters and near the FL Atlantic coast through the night where showers and isolated storms will be possible, with some inland progress after midnight toward near the FL Highway 301 corridor toward sunrise as the coastal trough persists and sharpens with the approach of the upper level trough axis. Low temperatures tonight will trend near to slightly warmer than last night and range from the mid 60s generally north of Waycross to the upper 70s along the FL Atlantic coast. Onshore East to Northeast flow will continue north of dissipated frontal boundary just south of the local waters, with High Pressure situated north of the waters.
Afternoon temperatures climb to 5 to 10 degrees above normal with mid 90s across the plains and upper 80s across the higher terrain expected. Afternoon temperatures on Sunday may be a touch cooler as increasing high clouds are expected across eastern portions of the area. Temperatures will generally be in the lower 90s and upper 80s.
(Today and tonight) Upper level high pressure dominates the weather pattern today leading to another pleasant day.
An upper level trough is in place, centered over the West Coast, with southwesterly to westerly flow aloft over the Rocky Mountains into Nebraska. Warmer air will be pushed southeast by the front but temperatures will only be slightly cooler behind the trough. Upper level high pressure centered over Oklahoma will amplify during the day as heights rise over Nebraska. Temperatures will be cooler in northern Nebraska thanks to cloud cover and possibly rainfall in the morning.
246 AM MDT Sat Sep 17 2022 An area of scattered showers was moving through NE Montana early this morning associated with a warm front. A short wave ridge will move from the west today and clear skies from west to east during the day today. The ridge will keep skies mostly clear tonight and most of Sunday and bring a warm day to the region on Sunday.
1045 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022 (Rest of tonight) Quiet/tranquil wx conditions prevail across the central TN Valley this Fri evening, as high pressure remains layered across the middle/southern Atlantic states. An upper ridge also remains in place over the central/eastern Gulf states.
High pressure over central Texas will maintain steady southerly surface winds today and tonight through our CWA, gradually veering to the southwest by early Sunday morning.
1009 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022 A broad upper trough in the western CONUS is helping create quasi- zonal flow in the middle of the country. As the low level jet erodes Saturday morning, so will the chance of precipitation.
310 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022 High pressure will extend into central North Carolina into the upcoming week.
357 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022 Upper Michigan remains under a warm, moist airmass early this morning with a warm front extending from northern Minnesota southeastward across Lake Superior.
In the lower levels, high pressure/ridging will reside just to our east through the period, with no appreciable flow of moisture into our area from the gulf or Atlantic. High pressure will bring dry weather and warm weather to eastern Kentucky during the extended.
1008 PM MDT Fri Sep 16 2022 19z surface analysis had lee trough from central MT into western NE, where low pressure was developing. Low will deepen some through the evening hours as it lifts northeast, taking warm front along for the ride. 0-6km bulk shear increasing, forecast to reach 30-40kts this evening near warm front.
238 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022 A weakly amplified upper trough continues to sit over the eastern half of the CONUS, and at the surface, high pressure extends west over southern Indiana and central Kentucky from the mountains of Virginia. This is keeping skies over the Lower Ohio Valley mostly clear and dry. Tonight, upper flow will see the slight amplification over the region fade and become more zonal as an upper high develops over Texas. These will slide to the southeast around the northeastern edge of the aforementioned upper ridge, weakening as they approach the Ohio Valley.
300 AM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022 (Issued 300 AM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022) Today through Sunday: Low pressure will continue to move slowly northeast through the northern Plains. The low level flow becomes more westerly on Sunday with the better forcing shifting to the east.
High pressure with almost a zero percent chance of rain.
Tranquil but very warm weather will continue the rest of today through much of the weekend, as the region remains under the influence of high pressure centered over the central Appalachian Mountains. Sunday will be a few degrees warmer, with maximum temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
302 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022 High pressure at the surface and aloft brings dry weather through the weekend, with high temperatures gradually rising above normal Sunday. Guidance shows broad high pressure at the surface, while ridging at H500 level. Upper level ridging flattens for the end of the weekend ahead of a weak disturbance to open up the work week.
Calm to light southeast winds along with mostly clear skies due to upper-level ridging aloft to prevail through the overnight hours.
A warm front will push into west central MN this afternoon and evening, and could be the focus for some convective development. There is already quite a bit of shower and thunderstorm activity developing already over eastern SD and western MN to our south, and most model solutions lift this northeastward into our southern counties later this morning as the warm front pushes north. CAPE values could get as high as 2500 J/kg if this occurs, with deep layer bulk shear around 45 to 50 kts and plenty of low level helicity to work with as the warm front moves into the area. The period starts with zonal flow aloft as the upper level ridge weakens due to a series of impulses propagating through the flow.
Blended most recent T/Td obs into the forecast and made some minor adjustments to sky cover with some low/mid level clouds advecting off the higher terrain of East TN, otherwise, the forecast remains mostly untouched. High pressure is forecast to persist and maintain dominance over our region for the foreseeable future, keeping conditions dry, clear, and calm. Overnight is likely once again to have river valley fog develop, aided by the suppressive ridge and calm winds. Temperatures will continue their slow climb upwards, and will be a degree or two warmer tomorrow.
1221 AM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022 (This afternoon through Saturday night) Tranquil weather conditions will be felt all across W TX as ridge center over Chihuahua coupled with deep mid-upper layer subsidence will create an arduous task for any convection to fire this PM. Tomorrow will be a touch warmer as 850mb temps poke a bit higher than today, but chance of precip will be next to nil, so a nice start to the weekend.
1209 AM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022 (This evening through Sunday) An upper ridge continues over the eastern U. with an upper trough over the Plains. The upper trough will move through Arkansas tonight. However, ridging will return for Saturday and Sunday. High pressure will provide subsidence over the area resulting in no rain chances expected through Sunday. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 60s and in the mid to upper 60s Saturday night.
(Today and tonight) Quiet conditions continue across West Central Texas with upper level high pressure parked across the area.
(Today through Sunday) Across the country this early this morning shows weak high pressure across the northern Gulf area from Texas over into the southern Appalachians with a deep upper trough approaching the Pacific NW. This trough out west will continue to dig south, which in turn will build the ridge over Texas this weekend and lead to a hot and dry weather pattern.
443 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022 High pressure will maintain dry weather with above normal temperature through most of the weekend.
100 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022 High pressure north and west of the region will slide offshore by Sunday.
Subtle mid level trough currently extending through west TX will lift northeastward through the day with a glancing influence across NE OK.
Another strong midlevel anticyclone "heat dome" is progged by all guidance to begin taking root over the southern plains Sunday, with rising heights expected over SW KS.
This activity is expected to stay over the offshore waters through much of the overnight period, but an isolated shower or storm can't be ruled out over coastal portions of the area during the early morning hours as the low level moisture begins to increase. The broad upper ridging will generally keep storms suppressed across the area, but a few isolated to perhaps scattered cells could develop within an area of moisture convergence along the sea-breeze during the afternoon hours. The highest rain chances on Saturday are focused over coastal Mississippi, coastal Alabama, and the northwest Florida Panhandle. By Sunday, upper level ridging will quickly amplify over the South Central US. The surface ridging along the East Coast will also nudge further south causing drier air to gradually filter back into the area from the northeast.
1136 PM EDT Fri Sep 16 2022 South to southwest flow around large high pressure off to the southeast of the region will provide VFR conditions for the most part. Anti-cyclonic flow in the lower half of the troposphere continues to sustain mild conditions across the southern Great Lakes region. The geopotential ridge axis is loosening grip farther aloft, allowing for moisture transport and cloud development. The longwave ridge will maintain its meridionally upstream tilt with only a slight drift eastward through much of the weekend.
1255 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022 High pressure will maintain dry weather with above normal temperature through most of the weekend.
500 mb heights will build over our region today in response to a large upper low along the west coast. For Sunday, ridging and SW flow increases and will mean somewhat warmer temps in the 70s to lower 80s.
1225 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022 High pressure will build across the region into Saturday.