Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1023 AM MDT Wed Apr 28 2021 The upper level trough continues to stretch out and weaken across the forecast area. Snow reports have been scarce, but web cameras show snow covered roads in the higher foothills and mountains. Strong northerly flow aloft on the back side of an upper trough is forecast for the CWA on Thursday.
Highs today will range from around 50 near lake Michigan to the lower 80s in northwest Ohio. Weak frontal zone in assocn/w split flow aloft bookended by sw troughs invof se AZ and sw NU will settle into nrn zones late morning before stalling invof cntrl IN tonight. MCV through wrn WI may provide enough of an influence within slowly destabilizing airmass w/swd extent to conditionally initiate storms by mid aftn mainly south of US30 in relation to newd advecting yet lagging low level theta-e ridge. Vigorous height amplification aloft develops through New England Fri as broad sfc ridging builds across the lakes.
Dense fog has developed overnight across the lower elevations of Converse County. Cold frontal boundary has continued to dig southeast and extends southwesterly through the Midwest as high pressure comes on board and is pushing east across the Pacific Northwest. In the wake of the frontal boundary that dug through the CWA, broad upper level ridging is still on track to push eastward and cover the western portion of the CONUS.
239 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021 An upper level low over southern Arizona will slowly move east over the next several days. Models have come into good agreement with a solution that is deeper and slower with the upper level low as it moves into Texas.
Fairly dry, warm, and breezy day behind the aforementioned sfc trof, with K2WX sitting at near 20% RH and recording gusts over 30 mph last hour. As trof axis shifts ewd tonight, should see gradually clearing skies and waning winds. Ridging remains on track to build over the wrn CONUS thru the end of the work week, bringing warmer and continued dry conditions to the region.
This evening, storms will likely be ongoing across much of the region while a cold front moves through the I-10 corridor. Thursday, the cut-off upper low will slowly be moving east over the El Paso TX region, contiuing to bring moisture up from the south, resulting in continued chances for showers and storms (non-severe). The cloud cover and cool northerly surface winds will result in cooler highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Thursday evening, an upper level low will be centered near the Davis Mountains of West Texas.
Lunchtime temperature observations in the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valley ranged from the middle 70s to low 80s, or about 5 to 10 deg F warmer than this time yesterday. A building upper level ridge whose axis is centered just west of the California coast is responsible for producing these well- above normal temperatures. As this ridge axis passes overhead on Thursday, expect further warming for the region with Valley highs in the upper 80s to low 90.
244 PM MDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Satellite imagery and 500 mb RAP analysis showed southwest flow over the region today, as an upper closed low spun over eastern Arizona and western New Mexico. An upper trough gradually pushed across the High Plains, keeping skies cloudy through the day with light precipitation grazing the northwestern and southeastern zones. Temperatures fall into the mid 30s to low 40s tonight as northwest flow develops aloft behind the exiting trough. A warming trend begins on Thursday, when a broad ridge amplifies over the west coast. Winds taper off and shift towards the south overnight as temperatures fall into the upper 30s/low 40s and the ridge noses into the Plains.
A TUTT-like feature is over Hispaniola, downstream from a sharp long-wave, upper-level ridge axis extending north from Central America to Maine. Meanwhile, a potent cyclone is carving lower heights deep into Mexico. We are tracking clusters of showers across the Straits of Florida which may scrape the Lower Keys in the next few hours. The main features controlling sensible weather elements for the next seven days will be the tenacity of the subtropical ridge and the interaction of the cut- off cyclone over Mexico. Over the next few days, the cyclone will fill and stall. Meanwhile, the mean layer ridge will consolidate over the Gulf of Mexico. From a Keys perspective, breezes will slowly diminish and turn to the southeast as the high erodes.
A more pronounced mid level trough is expected to move through the Northern Great Lakes Region on Thursday. There will also be a secondary cold front that will move into southern Wisconsin from the northwest Thursday afternoon/evening. The bulk of the rain showers from the mid level trough and front are expected to split southern Wisconsin and be in either Illinois or north central Wisconsin. High pressure is then expected to move in from northern Plains Thursday night.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Robust eastern section winds will fade this evening and overnight as a cold front approaches the area. The cold front will reach northern deep South Texas Thursday morning and will push to the coast later in the day, with winds becoming light to moderate northwest and then north. The continued proximity of the cold front near the coast and possible additional Sierra Madre drifters will cause the coverage to fill in. Low temperatures Thursday night will be slightly cooler than tonight with rain showers in the area and the front through most of the area.
There has been some fairly healthy shower activity along the front, although there is at least some virga as the lower layers remain dry. Thursday will be cooler temp wise, although still on the mild side, with breezy north to northwest winds. Cool down will last into Thursday night as high pressure builds in and temps get down into the 20s and 30s. End of the week and into the weekend a ridge builds over the Northern Plains.
346 PM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021 High pressure will prevail through Thursday.
Persist warm advection atop this boundary has maintained showers and storms southeast of Interstate 44 through the day with more scattered convection occurring further northwest nearer the synoptic cold front. Further north nearer the cold front isolated occurrences of funnel clouds have been reported within the a corridor low level vorticity and ample low level instability. This zone will become less favorable by evening and severe weather potential continues to appear low along the advancing cold front later tonight.
By Thursday morning, the upper trough will separate a bit to have a strong closed low over western TX, and a progressive trough over the Midwest. The cold front associated with the Midwest trough will be off to the northwest, and looks to move through the area during the afternoon as the Midwest trough continues eastward. Some instability will be in place ahead of the cold front, so some thunderstorms may be strong to severe with damaging winds as the primary threat.
Dry weather returns the rest of the week as a strong ridge of high pressure brings a rapid warming trend with temperatures approaching records going into the weekend. Otherwise, expecting mostly sunny skies with temperatures much warmer than yesterday. Temperatures will rebound back to normal today as the upper low that was over our region moves away across southeast Arizona. North to northeast winds on the back side of the system will lead to gusts of 25-35 mph across much of the region today, with the highest speeds along the lower Colorado River Valley near Laughlin-Bullhead City and southward.
An upper low west of El Paso will continue to move eastward today, providing lift to the region. While most of the convective models indicate storms in the Big Country to weaken this morning, with additional storms will be developing mid afternoon along the cold front. (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Thursday evening, an upper level low will be centered near the Davis Mountains of West Texas.
Despite the approach of the cold front and a persistent moist southerly flow over the area, subsidence effects - and lingering subsidence effects - associated with the ridging aloft maintains a dry forecast through Thursday. Clouds begin increasing again over the region tonight helping to blanket the area and keep temps warmer. Thus, expecting lows tonight to range from the low to upper 60s across the region.
Positive-tilted trough axis will finally move east of southwest Kansas during the Short Term period, but given the anticyclonic wave- breaking nature of this particular system, a remnant upper low will linger well to our south across southern New Mexico into Southwest Texas (which may have implications on the weekend forecast).
High pressure has begun to gradually move toward Wisconsin from the Northern Plains which is playing a roll in the drier weather today. The cooler temperatures and cloudy conditions are expected to continue today Patterson (Issued 235 AM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021) Today through Thursday: Cooler airmass will be in place today with surface front to our south with low pressure moving along it. A more pronounced mid level trough evolves for Thursday. However there will still be a secondary front/trough that is proggd to kick off some shra so will have some pops for this.
445 PM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected with a cold front tonight and Thursday, with strong storms and heavy rainfall possible.
139 PM MDT Wed Apr 28 2021 The H5 ridge continues to build into WY during the next 36 hours, continuing the tranquil and nearly clear skies. H7 temperatures currently right around 0C will increase as the ridge moves in tomorrow, increasing to 3 to 7C Thursday afternoon. Lows will remain in the 30s and 40s for all but the highest elevations.
227 PM MDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Stratocumulus across the plains and isolated showers in/near the higher terrain south of I-70 will dissipate this evening with the loss of daytime heating and further drying/stabilization. A ridge axis will be shifting across the area through Thursday. This will bring mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures, with a gorgeous spring day shaping up for the forecast area. Thursday night should be mild as the ridge continues to build across the area.
304 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Temperatures this afternoon range from mid 50s to upper 60s, with areas which were stuck under the lingering stratus remaining on the cooler side. Lows tonight fall into the lower to mid 40s. A ridge, albeit somewhat flat, builds in from the west late this week into the early part of the weekend.
Tomorrow will be another few degrees warmer, but winds will not be quiet as gusty.
Southwest flow continues in the low levels and all deterministic guidance shows strong 850mb moisture convergence across southern Missouri and Illinois into tonight. The warmest temperatures of the day in the low 70s will likely be in those areas that see afternoon sunshine. Carney High pressure will build across the Midwest behind the cold front on Thursday night.
Additional thunderstorms developing along a cold front over eastern Kansas this afternoon will also push southeastwards through the area this evening and tonight. Given these additional rounds of storms through tomorrow morning, additional forecast rain amounts of 1-3 inches are possible along and south of the Interstate 44 corridor, with the highest amounts generally south of a Neosho-Springfield-Rolla line. Some strong storms may also develop along the cold front over western Missouri and southeast Kansas this evening, again with isolated large hail and gusty strong to marginally severe winds possible.
For today and tomorrow, expecting temps to remain 5-10 degrees above average with most of the area reaching into the low to mid 80s and parts of the southern CWA even making it into the upper 80s. Pattern change Thursday evening into the overnight hours as an elongated cold front enters the CWA, increasing PoPs to low-end chance across north Georgia.
255 PM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Cold front late Thursday, followed by high pressure into the weekend. On Thursday, a cold front will slowly progress eastward towards the area and eventually move through late in the day. Showers and storms will be ongoing across the area Thursday evening as the cold front crosses.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 84 60 73 50 / 0 40 70 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 82 57 70 47 / 10 50 80 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 63 82 56 71 46 / 10 60 80 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 80 55 67 42 / 10 50 80 30 10.
Overnight lows will drop into the low 40s. Isolated showers are possible overnight into tomorrow morning as a weak cold front drops through the area. Skies will clear out behind the front, with sunny skies expected to warm temperatures into the low to mid 60s.
259 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Shower and storm chances will continue tonight, with the higher chances shifting southward with time.
Phillips County Stratocumulus across the plains and isolated showers in/near the higher terrain south of I-70 will dissipate this evening with the loss of daytime heating and further drying/stabilization. A ridge axis will be shifting across the area through Thursday. This will bring mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures, with a gorgeous spring day shaping up for the forecast area. Thursday night should be mild as the ridge continues to build across the area.
These showers are expected to continue on and off for the remainder of the afternoon ahead of a cold front progged to move through the CWA late this afternoon. Any activity that develops ahead of the cold front will be be capable of producing a few tenths of an inch per hour of precipitation. Late this afternoon as the cold front slides through the CWA an upper low over far west Texas will move eastward, providing broad lift to the region. Tonight into tomorrow rain showers with weak embedded thunderstorms will continue as the upper level low slowly ejects eastward.
Dry weather returns Thursday with temperatures rising into the weekend as high pressure nudges toward the Southwest.
1033 AM MDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Current surface analysis shows low pressure now across KS, with rainfall southeast of the area. Ridge is building along the west coast.
Thereafter, expect warming trend into the weekend ahead of upper low lifting from Mexico towards the central plains.
541 PM MDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Satellite imagery and 500 mb RAP analysis showed southwest flow over the region today, as an upper closed low spun over eastern Arizona and western New Mexico. An upper trough gradually pushed across the High Plains, keeping skies cloudy through the day with light precipitation grazing the northwestern and southeastern zones. Temperatures fall into the mid 30s to low 40s tonight as northwest flow develops aloft behind the exiting trough. A warming trend begins on Thursday, when a broad ridge amplifies over the west coast. Winds taper off and shift towards the south overnight as temperatures fall into the upper 30s/low 40s and the ridge noses into the Plains.
636 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021 The cold front continues to push through the southern part of the state. A cold front will continue to make its way eastward through the state this afternoon into early tonight, providing a slight chance for light rain as the moisture has to make it through a dry boundary layer. Northwesterly winds and clouds will increase again during the day tomorrow ahead of a secondary, back door cold front. Expect warmer overnight temperatures in the mid 30s to low 40s for Thursday night with increased cloud cover.
Water vapor shows a positively tilted trough stretching from the Upper MS Valley all the way into the Desert SW. The upper trough axis remains close enough to the area that we're still seeing some iso shwrs/weak storms this aftn, mainly S of I-80 and E of Hwy 281. Temps jump even more for Sat as lee trough deepens and pulls low level thermal ridge squarely into the CWA. Upper trough that cuts off over TX next 24hrs looks to eject NE Sun-Sun night, with next cold front entering the CWA Sun aftn-eve.
302 PM MDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Residual moisture and instability within the upper trough axis across CO has triggered another round of showers across the mountains this afternoon, with snow falling across the higher elevations above 8500-9000 feet. Overall should see a downward trend in pops late this afternoon and evening as focus for showers pulls southward in better proximity to the upper low to our south. Additional local accumulations of up to 2 inches will be possible across the higher elevations with any embedded convective showers. Thursday will be dry and warmer across southern CO with temperatures rebounding into the 70s across the plains and 50s and 60s for the mountain/valley communities.
Dry weather returns the rest of the week as a strong ridge of high pressure brings a rapid warming trend with temperatures approaching records going into the weekend.
620 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Temperatures this afternoon range from mid 50s to upper 60s, with areas which were stuck under the lingering stratus remaining on the cooler side. Lows tonight fall into the lower to mid 40s. A ridge, albeit somewhat flat, builds in from the west late this week into the early part of the weekend.
613 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Ridge axis across the CWA with northeast winds for the far eastern CWA and westerly flow across the north central CWA.
644 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Small compact upper low, likely being partially influenced by last nights convection and left over MCV, continues to drift slowly southward across far southwest Nebraska this afternoon. Should see a substantial rise in temperatures Thursday as a plume of warmer air (H85 temps of 10-12C) spread across the area.
612 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue tonight, with the higher chances shifting southward with time.
High pressure will bring dry weather through Thursday, along with a warming trend.
257 PM PDT Wed Apr 28 2021 High pressure will result in warm and dry conditions through Thursday, with temperatures peaking in the mid 70s to lower 80s.
A ridge of high pressure will lead to warm and dry weather through the rest of the week, with milder conditions along the coast. High pressure aloft has started to gradually move off to the east. Thursday the ridge continues to shift east and the marine layer will deepen.
519 PM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021 A warm front over the region will bring some showers and thunderstorms through this evening. The unsettled weather will continue into Thursday as a low pressure wave impacts the region with widespread showers.
Showers and thunderstorms continue to shift east along the cold front this afternoon. These storms have helped to push the cold front southeast a bit faster, with the front now located over Franklin and Coffey Counties. Winds will become nearly calm Thursday night as high pressure moves overhead.
A few sprinkles remain along the northern periphery of the area and will continue to diminish with upper ridging building in. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 83 60 76 51 / 0 40 70 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 82 57 73 46 / 10 40 80 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 61 82 56 73 46 / 10 60 80 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 81 54 69 41 / 10 40 80 20 0.
1024 PM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Unsettled weather will continue into Thursday as a wave of low pressure tracks along a frontal boundary resulting in widespread showers.
/issued 239 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021/ An upper level low over southern Arizona will slowly move east over the next several days. Models have come into good agreement with a solution that is deeper and slower with the upper level low as it moves into Texas.
Ridge axis across the CWA with northeast winds for the far eastern CWA and westerly flow across the north central CWA.
This evening, storms will likely be ongoing across much of the region while a cold front moves through the I-10 corridor. Thursday, the cut-off upper low will slowly be moving east over the El Paso TX region, continuing to bring moisture up from the south, resulting in continued chances for showers and storms (non-severe). The cloud cover and cool northerly surface winds will result in cooler highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Thursday evening, an upper level low will be centered near the Davis Mountains of West Texas.
Stratocumulus across the plains and isolated showers in/near the higher terrain south of I-70 will dissipate this evening with the loss of daytime heating and further drying/stabilization. A ridge axis will be shifting across the area through Thursday. This will bring mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures, with a gorgeous spring day shaping up for the forecast area. Thursday night should be mild as the ridge continues to build across the area.
High pressure will keep winds light, less than 10 mph.
328 PM MDT Wed Apr 28 2021 The H5 ridge continues to build into WY during the next 36 hours, continuing the tranquil and nearly clear skies. H7 temperatures currently right around 0C will increase as the ridge moves in tomorrow, increasing to 3 to 7C Thursday afternoon. Lows will remain in the 30s and 40s for all but the highest elevations.
752 PM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Warm and dry into Thursday as an offshore high pressure system continues breezy southerly flow into the region.
Expect the bulk of thunderstorms to exit southeast OK/northwest AR after 07-08Z, with winds becoming northernly as a cold front pushes south. Persist warm advection atop this boundary has maintained showers and storms southeast of Interstate 44 through the day with more scattered convection occurring further northwest nearer the synoptic cold front. Further north nearer the cold front isolated occurrences of funnel clouds have been reported within the a corridor low level vorticity and ample low level instability. This zone will become less favorable by evening and severe weather potential continues to appear low along the advancing cold front later tonight.
751 PM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021 High pressure continues to hold across the area, with warm and dry conditions persisting today.
A more humid pattern is now in place as a cold front is taking shape off to our northwest.
705 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Cold front with north winds gusting to 25 to 30 mph in its wake continues its slow march south this evening. There has been some fairly healthy shower activity along the front, although there is at least some virga as the lower layers remain dry. Thursday will be cooler temp wise, although still on the mild side, with breezy north to northwest winds. Cool down will last into Thursday night as high pressure builds in and temps get down into the 20s and 30s. End of the week and into the weekend a ridge builds over the Northern Plains.
627 PM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected with a cold front tonight and Thursday.
The main concern through is the threat for strong to marginally severe storms through the remainder of the afternoon and evening along and ahead of the sfc cold front steadily moving through the area. As of 1945Z the cold front bisects the area in a line from about Emporia KS to just west of Winfield KS. Ample bulk shear running parallel to the cold front will continue to support broken lines of convection as it continues to move southeast this afternoon and evening. Weak upper ridging is progged to remain overhead through much of the weekend brining warm and dry conditions back across the area with temps in the mid 70s to low 80s.
With winds expected to lighten through the evening ahead of the cold front, temperatures should cool to near dew point values after midnight. Temperatures this afternoon range from mid 50s to upper 60s, with areas which were stuck under the lingering stratus remaining on the cooler side. Lows tonight fall into the lower to mid 40s. A ridge, albeit somewhat flat, builds in from the west late this week into the early part of the weekend.