Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Zonal flow aloft will gradually give way through the near term and into the short term period to an upper level ridge as it progresses over the central CONUS. Model guidance suggests this will continue into Thursday as well, with dew points dropping at least into the lower to mid 30s. Current temperatures are in the lower 70s across the local area. Lows tonight will be slightly warmer than last night as temperatures will likely only drop into the lower to mid 40s for most locations.
Areas of cirrus is expected to gradually increase later this afternoon and especially this evening across the region, ahead of a weak upper trough that will enter NW TX. While some elevated AC cigs may accompany the cirrus, this elevated moisture field will linger overnight, before diminishing from NW to SE with the passage of the trough by mid to late morning Thursday. The water vapor imagery does continue to depict a weak closed low over Srn NM this morning, which is progged to open up this afternoon as it enters NW TX.
Winds will be WSW under 10KT, except for CKV where a dry cold front will shift winds to NW around 15Z.
(This afternoon through Thursday night) Next 36 hrs will be pretty tame with ridging across west TX and adjacent NM keeping temps at or above normal the next few days. Lows tonight will be about 5 or so degrees warmer than the previous few periods with morning temps likely in the U30s and 40s for much of the forecast area. Increase in high clouds expected tomorrow thanks to SW flow aloft ahead of a mean trough entering the SW US. Temps will rebound back into the 70s once again despite the cloud cover thanks to warming boundary layer temps under the ridge. Winds will be a bit breezier tomorrow out of the south, but will not be anything we don't normally see out here in the high plains.
(Thursday night through next Wednesday) Both the ECMWF and GFS develop a trough across the western U.
The upper ridge and a deepening offshore trough are well defined in morning satellite imagery. Strengthening upper level ridge across the Intermountain West today will keep the deep plume of moisture well north of the forecast area. This should provide for less cloud cover today should allow temperatures to reach the low 60s in the valley. Models remain in good agreement with large trough splitting as it moves inland on Thursday with a large closed low forming off the southern California coast.
1010 AM EST Wed Mar 2 2022 High pressure along with drier air will build into the region.
Many locations dropped down into the low and mid 30s last night and are now already well above 70. I've bumped high temps up already, as the very dry airmass continues to easily warm temps toward the higher end of guidance. We'll see a similar radiational cooling night tonight as we saw last night, but will be a few degrees warmer.
254 PM EST Wed Mar 2 2022 A cold front will drop south across the region Thursday.
Light southerly-southeasterly surface winds continue across the area this afternoon, as we continue to feel the effects of the backside of a surface anticyclone centered just to the south of the Louisiana Gulf Coast. Most areas should top out in the low-mid 70s, with some locations in the Rio Grande Valley and Winter Garden Region reaching the upper 70s. Under the influence of a subtropical ridge passing overhead, mostly sunny skies will prevail after the fog dissipates. Locations in the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country will be slightly cooler with highs in the low-mid 70s.
1036 AM MST Wed Mar 2 2022 Most of the forecast area remains clear this morning as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west. Warm advection will continue under the ridge so highs may be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Some high clouds will spread over the highway 40 corridor today as moisture spills over the northern periphery of the ridge. Additional cloud cover is expected tonight ahead of a trough approaching the West Coast. The ridge will slide east of the Divide tomorrow as the trough continues eastward, allowing southwest flow to become established. The higher end of the guidance is still shy of record temperatures tomorrow afternoon, which could be due to the expected cloud cover.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night): 500 mb ridging will prevail over the region throughout the short term period with a weak embedded short wave moving over the top of the ridge. This ridging will maintain steadily warming temps over the next 24-36 hrs. In addition to the cld cover the low level moisture advection will combine with fairly light surface winds to allow some patchy fog to form up tonight and Thurs Night.
VFR is expected to prevail past the duration of this period, thanks to a high pressure over the region.
1012 AM EST Wed Mar 2 2022 High pressure builds in across the local area today, with a weak trough lingering offshore through the afternoon. However, the lingering trough is expected to continue to generate showers offshore today. Showers will remain possible into this evening, due to a weak trough just off of the coast.
The water vapor imagery does continue to depict a weak closed low over Srn NM this morning, which is progged to open up this afternoon as it enters NW TX.
High pressure with light winds and SKC thru tonight will give way to stronger SW flow aloft and thicker cirrus on Thursday. It's the calm before the storm, rather before the storms! A ridge of high pressure to our west will slide over NM today and tonight. Caught within the high is a weak upper level low sitting over NM, which is generating some high level clouds.
159 PM EST Wed Mar 2 2022 Upper level ridging in the western Gulf of Mexico will traverse eastward through the week and into the weekend.
(The rest of today ) Current temps running a few degrees warmer compared to 24 hours ago. This along with 12z sounding support high temps a bit warmer today as forecast.
1039 AM EST Wed Mar 2 2022 Temperatures were on the cooler side of the forecast this morning with dew points slightly higher than forecast.
Tonight and Thursday Light precipitation will come to an end late this afternoon into early this evening behind a cold front exiting the region. Satellite imagery shows clearing behind the departing front, which should advect in from the northwest throughout the overnight hours as high pressure builds in across the northern Plains. High pressure will then build in across the western Great Lakes region on Thursday, keeping the weather dry across the region. Highs on Thursday will be cooler today, generally rising into the 20s. Thursday Night Through Wednesday Potential for significant snowfall and freezing rain this weekend is the focus of this forecast.
243 PM CST Wed Mar 2 2022 A dry cold front will move through the entire region late tonight into very early Thursday.
1118 AM MST Wed Mar 2 2022 There is a bit of, mostly, upper level cloudiness moving across the CWA in the upper ridge now in place. High pressure ridge aloft holding firm just west of Colorado with a light west to northwest flow aloft.
1135 AM CST Wed Mar 2 2022 KEY MESSAGES: - Scattered, light freezing rain and snow showers early this morning.
A pattern shift is then on the horizon as an upper ridge over the western CONUS begins to translate eastward and large scale troughing takes its place. (For the period Fri through Wed) Best chances for impactful weather come Sat afternoon and night, with light snow and the possibility for some freezing rain south.
101 PM EST Wed Mar 2 2022 Milder weather continues on Wednesday before a cold front moves through Wednesday night, which will provide a few light rain showers. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler on Thursday behind the front, but will quickly rebound heading to the weekend. As this boundary interacts with a warmer and slightly more saturated air mass, a few sprinkles or light rain showers may work their way across a number of our counties. This will set us up with notably cooler daytime highs, only allowing temperatures to climb about 5 degrees during the daytime hours. Highs will be near the freezing mark in our far northern counties in west-central OH, increasing to the upper 40s towards northern KY. Mid level ridging will be moving across the area to start the period.
1111 AM CST Wed Mar 2 2022 (The rest of today ) Current temps running a few degrees warmer compared to 24 hours ago. This along with 12z sounding support high temps a bit warmer today as forecast.
A weak trough continues to linger offshore, producing isolated to scattered showers. Dry conditions are then expected through Thursday, as the trough washes out.
348 PM EST Wed Mar 2 2022 A crossing cold front will spawn rain, and then snow showers tonight before dropping temperature back below the averages for Thursday. No appreciable changes were needed for the late aftn update and dry and warm weather will deteriorate tonight with the advance of fast- moving low pres and the associated cold front. The upper level pattern will slow a bit as it becomes more amplified as ridging builds upstream over the central CONUS. Troughing takes place downstream over the East Coast.
In doing so it's beginning to usher in a cold front with winds developing from the northwest.
Breezes will become moderate to fresh by Thursday night, as a second area of high pressure slides into the southeastern U. and merges with the aforementioned high pressure.
245 PM EST Wed Mar 2 2022 A cold front will pass through the region late this evening and into Thursday morning. High pressure will build over the region Thursday evening and remain nearby through the middle parts of this weekend.
We continue to use the lower percentiles for the official forecast.
Snow levels will trend down with the arrival of a cold front on Thursday bringing light to moderate snow accumulations to our high elevations.
This dropped MinRH values into the 25 to 30 percent range across much of the forecast area, with the higher terrain being a little higher thanks to cooler temperatures. They won't approach wind advisory criteria, but combined with the low RH values they could present some elevated fire danger. Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 44 73 44 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 45 70 40 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 71 43 71 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 40 65 37 66 / 0 10 0 0 0.
A building upper ridge will help to stall the advance of the cold air that has crept southwest today with a swath of low stratus. Lack of moisture in the snow growth region on the edges of the precip band could lead to some freezing drizzle mixing in at times, as well. Warmer and drier air will push in from the southwest by Thursday night.
Surface ridging centered over the lower Mississippi Valley will continue to expand eastward across the Gulf states tonight.
207 PM CST Wed Mar 2 2022 Temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 70s early this afternoon under sunny skies. Made some minor adjustments to go slightly cooler than model guidance tonight. Dewpoints have been lower than forecast and should also allow for lows to be on the cooler side of model guidance.
506 PM CST Wed Mar 2 2022 A dry cold front will move through the entire region late tonight into very early Thursday.
However satellite imagery also shows a large mass of clouds just off to the north associated with a cold front that will be dropping down tonight. This shallow boundary layer moisture was associated with areas of fog, freezing fog, and some patchy precipitation. Guidance temperature profiles are a mixed bag but based on upstream performance last night and arrival of cloud cover will be leaning toward some of the warmer numbers. Having said that, temperatures tonight will still be around the freezing mark for most of the region. It may well turn out to just be a frosty windshield situation but will have patchy fog/freezing fog mentioned across most of the area with some patchy freezing drizzle to the northeast up near the Niobrara valley.
600 PM CST Wed Mar 2 2022 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: VFR and light winds throughout under a very dry airmass and a persistent ridge over the Gulf Coast. We continue to use the lower percentiles for the official forecast.
Latest surface analysis is showing that a cold front along the Missouri/Iowa border that the HREF has been consistent moving south across the CWA tonight. This will cause winds to shift to the north and bringing in cooler air into the region. Highs on Thursday will be much cooler than today with northeasterly winds, but will still be above normal. Global models and their ensembles are in general agreement that the upper pattern will start out with a ridge over the central CONUS and mean trough over the West Coast.
Cliff PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Precipitation along a boundary is expected to continue at times today in the form of light freezing drizzle and/or a wintry mix. Precipitation is expected to intensify along the front tonight as snow and freezing rain become primary concerns. In some places, there may be a pause in the precipitation for a time today, but starting the advisory now simplifies the messaging, and, any freezing drizzle at all should it occur today would have an impact.
913 PM EST Wed Mar 2 2022 A cold front will move through the region tonight bringing some scattered precipitation to the area.
442 PM MST Wed Mar 2 2022 High pressure remains in control today as some high clouds drift across the area. High temperatures continue their warmer than average streak as most highs look to reach 5 to 10 degrees above those averages. Tomorrow, the ridge axis will pass to our east and this will cause winds to become more southwesterly. This would explain why guidance shows high temps a few degrees cooler than today. Perhaps it seems more so, because we've had long durations of quiet high pressure parked overhead this winter.
A look at GOES water vapor imagery this afternoon shows northwesterly mid/upper flow over the area with ridging in place over the western CONUS. The timing of the any precipitation looks to be just before to right around when air temperatures fall below freezing, limiting any widespread concerns about any slick surfaces as road temperatures may lag slightly behind surface temperatures on the warm side. Going into Thursday, temperatures will be on the cooler side of what we've seen the last few days, but will range from the upper 40's to lower 50's.
High pressure remains over the forecast area this evening with clear skies and light winds.
Like previous mornings, pockets of ice may form on paved surfaces early Thursday morning where sub-surface temperatures remain below freezing.
Temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 70s early this afternoon under sunny skies. Made some minor adjustments to go slightly cooler than model guidance tonight. Dewpoints have been lower than forecast and should also allow for lows to be on the cooler side of model guidance.
625 PM EST Wed Mar 2 2022 A cold front will move through the region tonight bringing some scattered precipitation to the area.
Plentiful sun and the presence of the ridge will then allow readings to climb into the 70s (with a few lower 80s in the west) on Thursday.
Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 40s. Overall went on the cooler side of guidance for lows given this morning, however do expect to see additional clouds tomorrow morning.
438 PM MST Wed Mar 2 2022 High pressure remains in control today as some high clouds drift across the area. High temperatures continue their warmer than average streak as most highs look to reach 5 to 10 degrees above those averages. Tomorrow, the ridge axis will pass to our east and this will cause winds to become more southwesterly. This would explain why guidance shows high temps a few degrees cooler than today. Perhaps it seems more so, because we've had long durations of quiet high pressure parked overhead this winter.
602 PM EST Wed Mar 2 2022 A crossing cold front will spawn rain, and then snow showers tonight before dropping temperature back below the averages for Thursday. No appreciable changes were needed for the late aftn update and dry and warm weather will deteriorate tonight with the advance of fast- moving low pres and the associated cold front. The upper level pattern will slow a bit as it becomes more amplified as ridging builds upstream over the central CONUS. Troughing takes place downstream over the East Coast.
By Thursday, the front will be weakening as the upper level flow begins to split as another closed low swings towards California.
/issued 159 PM EST Wed Mar 2 2022/ Upper level ridging in the western Gulf of Mexico will traverse eastward through the week and into the weekend.
Surface temperatures are well warm enough south of the cold front to support rain, while steepening low tropospheric lapse rates behind the cold front is good enough to support sporadic snow showers. A wind shift will occur with the cold front passage with north northwest wind of 12 to 22 knots. A polar circulation over northern Quebec then rotates eastward into Newfoundland and Labrador as upstream ridge axis is nudged into the central Plains. Southern edge of vicinity thermal trough makes further inroads early with H8 temps trending into the negative teens. Cold resident airmass keeps highs generally in the mid-upper 20s, with colder spots along the Huron shoreline and near-freezing closer to the MI/OH border.
517 PM CST Wed Mar 2 2022 As high pressure dominates the area, VFR conditions will prevail through the period under clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds.
408 PM EST Wed Mar 2 2022 A cold front will move through the region tonight bringing some scattered precipitation to the area.
814 PM EST Wed Mar 2 2022 A cold front will pass through the region late this evening and into Thursday morning. High pressure will build over the region Thursday evening and remain nearby through the middle parts of this weekend.
329 PM CST Wed Mar 2 2022 A cold front will push southward through the area this evening, bringing colder temperatures and blustery northerly winds.
553 PM CST Wed Mar 2 2022 A cold front will push southward through the area this evening, bringing colder temperatures and blustery northerly winds.
541 PM CST Wed Mar 2 2022 High pressure will continue to dominate through the period with widespread VFR conditions expected.
Winds are generally light for now, but areas to our north are showing signs of becoming gusty again in advance of a cold front that will move through tonight. As the cold front passes, precipitation forecasting has become rather tricky. With that, some areas may see a few flurries especially with how low the stratus should be, perhaps isolated areas of freezing drizzle, and there is also the small chance for patchy fog and freezing fog if that layer of stratus ends up lowering all the way to the ground.
845 PM CST Wed Mar 2 2022 Quiet and seasonably mild wx conditions prevail across the cntrl TN Valley this Wed evening, as high pressure remains layered over the Gulf Coast states. Temps have fallen mainly into the 50s for most spots, and with an optimal radiational cooling pattern in place, overnight lows look to fall predom into the lower 40s.
As high pressure continues to slide east, onshore flow is slowly returning and helping to increase temperatures and humidity. Temperatures and dewpoints will also increase slightly with daytime highs expected to reach the mid 70s again and overnight lows cooling down to the low to mid 50s.
Otherwise, low dewpoints, light winds, and clear skies will allow temperatures to bottom out in the low to mid 40s across the interior and around 50 at the coast. Surface ridging centered over the lower Mississippi Valley will continue to expand eastward across the Gulf states tonight.
Dewpoints from the lower Mississippi river valley eastward through Tennessee and the southeast are all in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
The low stratus will be lacking cloud ice, therefore any precipitation that develops would be liquid. Winds are generally light for now, but areas to our north are showing signs of becoming gusty again in advance of a cold front that will move through tonight. As the cold front passes, precipitation forecasting has become rather tricky. With that, some areas may see a few flurries especially with how low the stratus should be, perhaps isolated areas of freezing drizzle, and there is also the small chance for patchy fog and freezing fog if that layer of stratus ends up lowering all the way to the ground.
259 PM MST Wed Mar 2 2022 High pressure remains in control today as some high clouds drift across the area. High temperatures continue their warmer than average streak as most highs look to reach 5 to 10 degrees above those averages. Tomorrow, the ridge axis will pass to our east and this will cause winds to become more southwesterly. This would explain why guidance shows high temps a few degrees cooler than today. Perhaps it seems more so, because we've had long durations of quiet high pressure parked overhead this winter.
A wind shift will occur with the cold front passage with north northwest wind of 12 to 22 knots. A polar circulation over northern Quebec then rotates eastward into Newfoundland and Labrador as upstream ridge axis is nudged into the central Plains. Southern edge of vicinity thermal trough makes further inroads early with H8 temps trending into the negative teens. Cold resident airmass keeps highs generally in the mid-upper 20s, with colder spots along the Huron shoreline and near-freezing closer to the MI/OH border.
305 AM EST Thu Mar 3 2022 Discussion/Marine - Weekend low pressure system - A low pressure system over the central Plains states will strengthen as it moves east northeast to near Sault St.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 40s by sunrise.
High pressure currently sits over the Red River Valley still, and areas in northwest Minnesota are managing to hit Wind Chill Advisory criteria. High pressure remains centered over Manitoba into the northern Red River Valley. A pattern shift is then on the horizon as an upper ridge over the western CONUS begins to translate eastward and large scale troughing takes its place. (For the period Fri through Wed) Best chances for impactful weather come Sat afternoon and night, with light snow and the possibility for some freezing rain south.
(Today and tonight) Short wave ridging aloft will dominate Oklahoma's weather through tonight. At the surface, a lee trough over eastern Colorado and New Mexico will continue to strengthen and increase south winds in western Oklahoma today.
100 AM EST Thu Mar 3 2022 A crossing cold front will spawn rain, and then snow showers tonight before dropping temperature back below the averages for Thursday. No appreciable changes were needed for the late aftn update and dry and warm weather will deteriorate tonight with the advance of fast- moving low pres and the associated cold front. The upper level pattern will slow a bit as it becomes more amplified as ridging builds upstream over the central CONUS. Troughing takes place downstream over the East Coast.
914 PM CST Wed Mar 2 2022 A cold front will push southward through the area this evening, bringing colder temperatures and blustery northerly winds.
Dry with above normal temperatures Discussion: A weak and dry cold front will sag south into and through the area today, and will likely stall near our southern border by tonight. Just some mainly scattered clouds will be noted during the period as moisture will be very limited, and the slightly cooler air moving in behind the front will just serve to hit pause on the warming trend for today although temperatures will still be well above normal and not far from yesterday's highs. Will highlight the low RH values in FWF.
947 PM MST Wed Mar 2 2022 High pressure continues to dominate today with the ridge axis just to the west over eastern Idaho and high- and mid-level clouds streaming over the top side mostly into northern Wyoming. Breezy west to southwest winds also persist with wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph in the typical favorable locations of the higher terrain and across much of central WY. As the 500mb high moves from AZ into NM tomorrow, the ridge axis will slide over the forecast area and strengthen as an upper-level low approaches the CA coast.