Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 323 AM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021/ SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): Deep South Texas will remain under a slight weakness in the mid to upper level ridge over the next couple of days, allowing for weak subsidence over the area. At the surface, high pressure will try to close in behind Nicholas, allowing winds to remain generally light and variable through the period. With fairly deep column moisture remaining over the northwest Gulf and at times over the coastal portions of our eastern counties, these areas will have a slight chance to chance of showers and thunderstorms through the period, with diurnal heating enhancing PoPs each afternoon across the Lower RGV.
801 AM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021 High pressure extending into the region from offshore will weaken over the next couple of days as moisture increases from the Gulf Coast Region. Further north, a cold front was extending from northeast Illinois through Missouri into southern Kansas. Meanwhile, over our area high pressure remains in control but is expected to weaken today.
Temperatures will then trend downward going into the weekend as multiple weak troughs brush the region leading to breezy afternoons.
630 AM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021 Clouds will decrease from northwest to southeast today as a cold front exits the region. Cooler and less humid conditions can be expected today with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
/Issued 303 AM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021/ An upper trough will track east and south across the Panhandles today and then into western Oklahoma by late today and this evening. The NAM and GFS hinting at the possibility for some convection to develop today and also tonight as the upper trough or closed upper low remains in or close to the Panhandles.
The upper level pattern transitions to more southwesterly flow today and continues through tomorrow as broad troughing develops over western US. However, conditions be dry and sunny with warmer than normal temps continuing. Slightly cooler tomorrow as a weak, dry cold front flips the region, with highs in the upper 70s to 80s.
436 AM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021 Current surface analysis places low over northern Alberta with trough dropping down along the lee of the Rockies, while high lingers over the central plains into the midwest. Upper level analysis places trough sliding through the midwest, while broad ridging noted over much of the western CONUS, though a potent short wave is noted pushing into the ridge over the Canadian Rockies into the Pacific northwest. Rather dry air is already in place, with even drier air advecting in as the trough pushes east. Southwesterly winds will switch westerly by mid-day with the approaching trough, and be on the increase. For tonight, cooler air starts to work into the area, while upper flow shifts southwesterly as aforementioned upper trough to the west broadens out and starts spreading easterly.
Interaction between a couple weak MCVs (one entering far west central Oklahoma, and the other between Dodge City and Wichita) are currently not handled well by most of the CAMs, with there being increased flow and impact from the upper trough seen on the VWPs of area WSR-88Ds. Any precipitation is expected to end by Wednesday afternoon/evening, with cooler, near average temperatures expected.
Cooler and more temperate conditions will end the work week.
Temperatures will then gradually decrease to near normal levels by the weekend as a trough of low pressure passes north of the region. A sunny sky and temperatures only a degree or two lower than yesterday can be expected across the region today as we remain under a broad area of high pressure over the southwest states.
No surprise then to find a swath of showers blanketing the Lower Keys and coastal waters to the southeast and northwest of the Lower Keys, but at this time the Middle and Upper Keys remain relatively free of convection with only a few isolated showers. This could be an indication of sort of a precipitable water gradient with slightly drier air to the east of the Lower Keys. Regardless, a cooler rainy day over the islands is certainly welcome in mid-September. VCSH remains in the forecast this morning as residual showers, mainly in the Lower Keys, stream near the island terminals.
High pressure centered over the Missouri River Valley was providing mostly clear skies and seasonably cool conditions across the area early this morning. Temperatures were mostly in a range from the mid 50s to around 60 with dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s. These clouds were streaming off showers and thunderstorms occurring along yesterday's cold front which stretched from southern KS across Mo into southern IL. Quiet weather will continue today through tonight as high pressure passes through the area. Tonight, clear skies and continued weak wind fields behind the high departing to the east will allow temperatures to cool into the 50s and possibly into the upper 40s in northwest Illinois.
703 AM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021 The slow passage of a cold front through the day will produce showers and some gusty thunderstorms, especially from the Genesee valley to the Finger Lakes and North Country.
1016 AM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021 915MHz profilers still showing 5-10 kt of easterly flow in the low levels this morning, which has resulted in showers occasionally making it onshore along the east central Florida coast.
259 PM MDT Wed Sep 15 2021 After a gusty day today, a cooler day is expected across North- Central and Southwestern Montana with high temperatures generally in the 60s area-wide. After a breezy day today as a weak disturbance passed to our north, tomorrow will be a noticeably cooler and calmer day as a high pressure system moves over the area. The cooler, quiet weather will not last for long, however, as a potent upper level trough and associated atmospheric river will crash into the Pacific Northwest.
high pressure looks to set up over the Southern Plains with the upper level jet over the northern CONUS.
Tonight and Thursday High pressure continues to skirt eastward through the evening. Otherwise, southerly will increase across northern WI into Thursday as a upper-level trough and a deepening low work their way across central Canada. Looking at warmer temps as well with highs topping off in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.
Cold front is poised along the southern Canada Rockies and will quickly dive southward into our area late this afternoon into mid evening, with a shift to northerly winds and cooler temperatures for tomorrow. Chambers During the day today, compressional heating ahead of a cold front will raise temperatures into the 80s. Humidity will drop into the low to mid teens with winds increasing into the afternoon with gusts 25 to 35 mph. A cold front will move into the area this evening, switching winds to the north. Above normal temperatures Wednesday will lead to below normal temperatures Thursday as a trough digs into the area.
223 PM MDT Wed Sep 15 2021 Satellite and 500 mb RAP analysis showed a ridge building over the Desert Southwest today, placing weak northwest flow over the region. At the surface, a lee trough formed along the Front Range. Flow aloft turns nearly zonal tonight as the aforementioned ridge gradually moves east into the southern/central Plains, leading to continued dry weather. Meanwhile, a trough traverses the western Canadian border and northern Rockies. Another warm day is forecast on Thursday with highs in the low 90s. The lee trough prevails, aiding the development of some gusty south winds, particularly in northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska. Fortunately, the gustier winds are not collocated with the lowest humidities. The Canadian border trough pushes east Thursday night and a cold front is expected to push into the High Plains, including our area.
Tweaks were made to hourly temps this morning to account for cooler conditions under the precip shield and the slower to warm. In terms of threats in our area from the rainfall, nothing has changed and following trends, our far S/SE tier of counties look to be the best locations to "add up" totals for the event, but rain rates have been on the low side so it's taken many hours to reach the 2-3 inch totals.
1142 AM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021 The slow passage of a cold front through the day will produce showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially from the Genesee Valley to the Finger Lakes and North Country.
152 PM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021 An area of low pressure in the vicinity of the Bahamas continues to disrupt the western Atlantic ridge from building into Florida. The Florida Keys and coastal waters are currently sandwiched between this area of low pressure, and the remnants of Nicholas over the northwestern Gulf states. This moisture should remain through tomorrow before beginning to lift northward as the low near the Bahamas lifts northward and the remnants of Nicholas become more disorganized. However, the winds over the area will remain light until the low over the Bahamas lifts farther northward and the ridge can again build over Florida beginning this weekend.
344 PM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021 High pressure will build across the area on Thursday.
Synoptically, an upper-level ridge will be the main feature through Thursday evening, which should allow for clear to partly cloudy skies with warm temperatures during this time. Clear skies and light winds will result in seasonal low temperatures tonight in the mid 60s, followed by highs tomorrow in the low 90s.
Additionally, the SW to NE oriented cold front is located around the southern portions of IL/IN/OH and northern KY. KS Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 80 67 82 68 / 40 50 20 60 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 83 67 84 68 / 40 40 20 50 20 Oak Ridge, TN 66 82 66 84 68 / 40 40 20 50 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 81 64 83 64 / 40 40 20 50 20.
206 PM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021 A chance for showers and thunderstorms will linger ahead of a southward sinking cold front, diminishing by early evening as the cold front pushes south of the region.
145 PM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021 (Issued 145 PM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021) Tonight through Thursday night: High pressure will shift through the eastern Great Lakes tonight. The low level thermal ridge will be in place across the area with 925 temps nearing 20c.
227 PM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021 Showers and a few thunderstorms continue this afternoon along a surface boundary and trough overhead. Activity should diminish this evening, with only a few CAMs showing additional development ahead of a cold front later this afternoon/early evening in the northwest. This will allow for some diurnal convection in the late morning through the afternoon, especially in the east and south where proximity to the low may help out a bit more to get some showers and storms going.
302 PM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021 A few showers moved across the Thumb region this afternoon in response to the weak surface and upper trough. In general, high pressure with drier air moves over nearly all of the forecast area overnight. With the dry air advecting in and the clear skies, will lean toward the cooler guidance numbers for low temperatures.
With moisture in the low-levels remaining higher to our east, we should see another round of morning low clouds over the coastal plains into the Highway 77 corridor. Temperatures should manage to warm into the lower 90s to near 100 along the Rio Grande.
1122 AM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021 High pressure extending into the region from offshore will weaken over the next couple of days as moisture increases from the Gulf Coast Region. As the low clouds that were in place this morning mix out with daytime heating, expect cumulus to begin to develop with increased moisture across the area.
249 PM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021 Showers and thunderstorms will end this evening with the passage of a cold front.
301 PM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021 Visible satellite shows what is left of the cold front that came through yesterday situated down across southwest OK where some towering CU is starting to build. By Sat, upper ridging will continue to build from the Desert Southwest into the Southern Rockies which will continue a warming trend across the Southern/Central Plains. Normal highs for this time of year are in the low to mid 80s. There is good agreement between the GFS and ECMWF in a robust upper trough moving through the Central Plains on Tue. Regardless of which model verifies, the main affect this system will have will be to bring much cooler temps for Tue and especially Wed, maybe even something "fall-like".
406 PM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021 Showers and a few thunderstorms will accompany a cold front across the region this evening. Showers and a few thunderstorms can be expected until passage of the upper trough/cold front later this evening.
124 PM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021 Clouds will decrease from northwest to southeast today as a cold front exits the region. Cooler and less humid conditions can be expected today with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
A strong dry cold front is now moving across western Montana. Thursday morning will start off pretty chilly across the valleys of northwest Montana with lows in the lower to mid 30s.
1204 PM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021 (Today and tonight) An upper level ridge centered across the Desert Southwest/northern Mexico will continue to dominate the weather across West Central Texas. High temperatures will be near seasonal normals, in the low 90s.
248 PM MDT Wed Sep 15 2021 Flat wly upper flow across the area overnight gradually bends back toward the sw on Thu as s/w trough moves through the nrn Rockies. At the surface, lee trough slowly slides eastward from the I-25 corridor onto the plains Thu, with deepening La Junta cyclone in the afternoon. Humidity will certainly be low enough for an increase in fire danger across the region Thu, however, surface winds appear to stay under 25 mph at most locations, with just some brief 25-30 mph gusts over the higher peaks of the central mountains late in the afternoon.
Diffuse surface ridging remains over the region tonight before weak troughing replaces this throughout the day on Thursday.
This has led to the redevelopment of the leeside trough and thus a return of the breezy south winds. As 850mb temperatures continue to warm, we will see resulting surface temperatures warmer tomorrow vs.
233 PM MDT Wed Sep 15 2021 High pressure has begun to push eastward towards the Great Lakes, with a cold frontal boundary hanging up and becoming nearly stationary across the Pacific Northwest.
The higher PWs will also result in more shower coverage for tomorrow.
A few showers and lower ceiling become focused east of the terminal corridor as this moisture both mixes out and get pushed east of the area as high pressure builds in from the IA vicinity. The result is decreasing coverage of broken VFR cumulus from NW to SE during the afternoon and additionally this evening with the loss of daytime heating and before the low level flow veers easterly after midnight. Southeast Michigan lies immediately downstream of an inbound mid level trough axis early this morning. Definitively drier post- frontal environment now noted within modest northwest flow, although higher magnitude deep column drying will await the passage of the trough axis and increasing diurnal mixing later today. Generally benign weather conditions tonight and Thursday as high pressure builds across the region with the backdrop of gradually increasing geopotential heights.
With aided diurnal enhancement in the high PWAT airmass, we can expect scattered to numerous showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms each day.
At the surface, a trough of low pressure was steadily deepening across the northern plains while surface ridging over the upper Midwest weakened. For tonight through Thursday night, the forecast is for dry and mild weather to continue while broad mid level ridging remains over the forecast area.
Expect mainly clear skies for much of tonight, with increasing higher clouds toward morning from the west as warmer air with increasing return flow begins to overspread the area.
1136 AM MDT Wed Sep 15 2021 08z surface analysis had high over KOAX and lee trough/developing warm front from central MT into central WY. Water vapour loop had upper trough over BC/AB with jet extending into the northwest CONUS. Today/tonight, upper trough moves into south central Canada pushing warm front through the CWA with trailing cold front dipping into eastern MT/WY overnight. Low level thermal ridge expands into the region. Thursday, cold front moves through the CWA. Highs Thursday will be in the 70s behind the cold front and 80s ahead of it.
Models show a tongue of moisture pushing into the lower RGV tonight, but are not very aggressive with PoPs for tomorrow.
After a cold front moved through the region yesterday, temperatures are more seasonable with highs in the low 80s. Broad upper level ridging keeps the calm weather around for a few days. This limits the flow of warmer more humid air into the region.
223 PM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021 There are a few areas to watch for thunderstorm initiation this afternoon into tonight 1: the higher terrain of New Mexico, 2: a defuse boundary over the northern South Plains leftover from earlier thunderstorms, and 3: the edge of the Caprock escarpment. A few weaknesses are expected to form within the periphery of the ridge to our west and move over the higher terrain of New Mexico and the boundary over the northwestern CWA. A cut-off low is expected to form within one of the aforementioned weaknesses in the ridge to our west and be located over northwestern Oklahoma by sometime tomorrow morning.
(This evening through Thursday) Lingering cloud cover from this morning's MCV should linger around central OK through the early afternoon, keeping temperatures a little cooler.
Surface winds: variable 10 kt or less, becoming W-NW 5-15 kt this afternoon with gusts to 25 kt along a weak cold front later this evening.
High pressure will slowly erode tonight as a cold front approaches from Canada Thursday. Meanwhile a warm front will lift north through Minnesota tonight bringing some scattered showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm. The real show sets up with the cold front as a buoyant air mass will combine with strong flow aloft to create an environment conducive to strong to severe thunderstorm development. There is some question as to how much debris from the warm front will remain and inhibit insolation Thursday morning, the fact that upper level forcing remains disjointed from the best thermodynamics, and there will be a moderately strong cap that needs to be broken. Despite this, rich moisture advection in the presence of strong shear and cold frontal forcing may squeak a few cells past the goalie to get some CI started by mid to late afternoon.
317 PM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021 Late summer upper level ridging will prevail over the Midsouth into the early weekend, but the weather won't be as hot and dry as that ridging might imply. As the remnants of Tropical Depression Nicholas lift east along the gulf coast, tropical moisture, as represented by precipitable water values of 2+ inches, will build north from the central gulf coast in advance of a weak upper low over east Texas.
Previous discussion: A cold front pushing across the region today will lead to increasing northwest winds in the presence of dry fuels and low relative humidity. Look for markedly cooler temperatures on Thursday behind the frontal passage.
The low level circulation remains displaced and over SW/S-central LA and has some diurnal type precip activity associated with it. /CME/ Tomorrow night through Wednesday: The forecast period starts off tomorrow night with broad/flat upper ridging extending across the southern CONUS. Within this ridge, a weak upper low over the Southern Plains is forecast to close and become cutoff from northern stream flow and slowly drift southeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. This moisture combined with forcing from the upper low and remnant low of Nicholas will continue to foster scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms each day through the period.
321 PM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021 Showers and thunderstorms will diminish ahead of a southward sinking cold front, diminishing by early evening as the cold front pushes south of the region.
Skies are clearing from the northwest as mid and high cloud associated with the weak upper trough axis and jet streak shuttle east/southeastward, and expect mostly clear skies across the area by late this afternoon into this evening. Despite what should be full sun tomorrow, preferred the ever so slightly cooler MOS blend for highs tomorrow with damp ground, a lack of strong low level mixing, and low level thickness progs only modestly higher by the afternoon. Still should see the low 80s for most areas. Min temps tomorrow night will recover back into the 60s as we get on the backside of the high and winds begin to veer back to the southeast/south.
235 PM MDT Wed Sep 15 2021 Latest upper analysis shows westerly flow aloft over the region this afternoon with an upper low moving from northern Alberta into northern Saskatchewan and an E-W oriented upper trough dropping southward toward the international border. At the surface, a N-S trough extends across the central Dakotas into swrn Neb. A cold front will swing across the region on Thursday accompanied by breezy to windy conditions. Highs on Thursday will be in the 70s behind the cold front and 80s ahead of it.
243 PM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021 The cold front is now south of the forecast area and has left cooler temperatures and mostly clear skies in its wake with high pressure building in from the northwest. This may set the stage for a little fog development, especially in SE MO and southern IL given their proximity to the center of the high and slightly richer moisture.
Winds have died down for the evening and the cooler temperatures behind the front are allowing for a recovery in the humidity so have gone ahead and cancelled both the Red Flag Warning and Lake Wind Advisories for the evening.
Latest upper analysis shows westerly flow aloft over the region this afternoon with an upper low moving from northern Alberta into northern Saskatchewan and an E-W oriented upper trough dropping southward toward the international border. At the surface, a N-S trough extends across the central Dakotas into swrn Neb. A cold front will swing across the region on Thursday accompanied by breezy to windy conditions. Highs on Thursday will be in the 70s behind the cold front and 80s ahead of it.
730 PM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021 Showers and a few thunderstorms will accompany a cold front across the region this evening. Showers and a few thunderstorms can be expected until passage of the upper trough/cold front later this evening.
814 PM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021 Showers and thunderstorms will diminish ahead of a southward sinking cold front, diminishing by early evening as the cold front pushes south of the region.
950 PM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021 (Issued 947 PM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021) Low winds and clear skies have allowed temperatures to drop fairly will in some locations over southern Wisconsin with a few inland spots in the low 50s. CMiller (Issued 145 PM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021) Tonight through Thursday night: High pressure will shift through the eastern Great Lakes tonight. The low level thermal ridge will be in place across the area with 925 temps nearing 20c.
Warm and dry air mass currently over the western half of ND is noted by temps in the low to mid 80s and widespread RH values at or below 25 percent. A cold front moves through from the northwest tonight into early tomorrow.
After a gusty day today, a cooler day is expected across North- Central and Southwestern Montana with high temperatures generally in the 60s area-wide. After a breezy day today as a weak disturbance passed to our north, tomorrow will be a noticeably cooler and calmer day as a high pressure system moves over the area. The cooler, quiet weather will not last for long, however, as a potent upper level trough and associated atmospheric river will crash into the Pacific Northwest.