Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
217 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017 The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Irma will gradually dissipate over the mid Mississippi valley through Wednesday. Weak high pressure will build into the area through the weekend, as Hurricane Jose spins in the Atlantic between the Bahamas and Bermuda. Weak high pressure over the southwestern Atlantic will be in control on Wednesday across the region as the upper low from the remnants of Irma spins over the Mid-Mississippi Valley.
The 9 pm subjective surface analysis showed a quasi-stationary baroclinic trough across south GA and AL, extending westward to the LA coast. There was a confluence zone along a trough over the northwest FL coastal waters, separating west winds to its west from south winds to its east.
A warming trend should get underway in full on Thursday as the system dissipates and the upper low moves off toward the the northeast U. Light west to southwest winds and a return to some sunshine (esp during the PM) should help most locations punch back into the lower half of the 80s. The lowest readings will again be over sw IN and the Pennyrile region of western KY, where clouds should be the slowest to clear.
A band of showers is tracking across the Lower Treasure Valley this morning. A pattern change is imminent, as a upper level trough moves south across British Columbia this afternoon and into the Pacific NW on Thursday. Expect one more warm day today, before a cold front lowers temperatures around 10-15 degrees on Thursday.
Mid level heights were falling across the northern Rockies as an upper trough moves into southern British Columbia. This will lead to high temperatures being 5-10 degrees cooler today compared to yesterday. Much cooler air will push into the area late tonight, and set the stage for a couple of chilly days to end the week. Models were consistent on developing convection over the higher terrain with this wave, and spreading ascent onto the plains. TWH Expecting rainfall to overspread the area Thursday as an open trough starts to work into western Montana.
Aloft we see remnants of Irma to the southeast in MS/AL, upper ridging extending from AZ/NM north through the Rockies/western plains, an upper low pressure system in the Pacific off the coast of CA, and fairly zonal flow across the Canadian provinces. The upper ridge axis begins to break down Thursday as an upper trough digs into the Pacific Northwest. Flow transitions southwesterly ahead of the approaching system and in a tightening surface gradient with a deepening low along the high plains, steady/gusty south winds are expected to develop especially across our southern zones Thursday. We remain in the warm air ahead of the approaching upper system through the end of the week, then the upper trough and cooler air move onto the plains over the weekend.
Am not very confident these storms will move into the the far Southwest Nebraska counties, but upper level short wave trough will deepen some before sunrise, which along with the elevated CAPE may allow the storms to make it into these counties before dissipating completely. sunny skies continue to persist with temperatures ranging from the upper 80s into the lower 90s. with the area remaining between high pressure to the east and a trough over east Colorado. isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed and moved across portions of eastern Colorado near the trough. This is due to ridging over the Southeastern States and troughing over the Pacific Northwest region.
upper pattern starts to change a bit as Irma remnants move into the Ohio valley and California upper low moves ashore and slowly into southern Nevada putting the forecast area under broad upper level ridging. MET/MAV mos, 2m temperatures and bias corrected grids support readings in the low to mid 90s. As a result will be aiming for highs in the low 90s to around 100 degrees. Better chance will be during the evening/early overnight hours as remnants of the upper low lift across the area from the southwest.
For Wednesday and Thursday, the upper level ridge which has been over the area for the last week will begin to weaken as a Pacific upper level trough moves into Calif and eventually into the Great Basin region. The upper level ridge will likely weaken and translate eastward into the plains by Thursday as the flow aloft becomes southwesterly. Expect a higher coverage of showers and thunderstorms for Thursday as the first cold front makes its way through southeast Wyoming, so increased POP between 30 to 60 percent over most locations with values below 25 percent for the lower valleys of Carbon county. Temperatures on Thursday will begin to lower in response to the Pacific upper level trough, with highs likely in the 70's west of I-25 and 80's east of I-25 with temperatures lowering through the afternoon.
1034 PM PDT Tue Sep 12 2017 A cold front passage tonight will bring gusty winds and cooler temperatures for the rest of the work week.
With the extensive cloud cover, not much of a temperature variation overnight, especially across areas east of I-55, with the cooler lows expected across west central and northwest Illinois where the cloud cover won't be as extensive. So light rain chances will linger through Wed afternoon, then drier air will return to the area as the upper trough slowly departs to the east. Highs on Wed will be a little cooler than today E of I-55, with upper 60s in our E-SE counties closer to the upper low/cold pool, and mid to upper 70s along and NW of the Illinois river. The departing surface and upper level low pressure centers will set the stage for a gradual warming trend to close out the week.
Upstream trof is working into the Pacific Northwest with disturbed southwest flow extending into the Northern Rockies. Associated cold front at the surface is pushing into northern MT. Another very warm day expected today with thermal ridge overhead. Cold front will then work through tonight, with thunderstorm activity shifting east of the region by morning. Cooler air will continue to flow into the Northern Plains the next few days as upper trof pushes into the Northern Rockies by the beginning of the weekend.
This weather system will bring a prolonged period of showers and cooler than normal high temperatures to the Ohio Valley. Dry weather and warmer temperatures are forecast to arrive for the weekend as high pressure settles over the region. As a result, highs will range from the mid 60s southwest to the lower/mid 70s east. With the low level jet shifting east overnight, widespread showers should taper off from west to east, leaving cloudy skies by morning. Low temperatures will be pretty uniform, ranging from the upper 50s to the lower 60s. This will result in cool highs in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
411 AM MDT Wed Sep 13 2017 A Canadian cold front is slowly moving southward through the region today. As a result, it will be quite a bit cooler this afternoon over North Central MT and not as hot over Southwest MT.
For tnt, some of the low level moisture from the remnants of Irma will spread into se WI.
In the short term with ridge across the central Rockies. Temperatures will rise into the 90s this afternoon and with heating of the day and weak impulse moving through the upper atmosphere storms expected to fire along the trough axis and move across western Nebraska through the evening.
/issued 222 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017/ An upper low is over the southeast part of the country, and another upper low is just off the coast of California. Upper ridging is over the southwest part of the country, and the CWA is under north to northwest flow aloft. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms across the higher terrain Wednesday afternoon. On Thursday, the upper trough over the western part of the country strengthens, and an upper ridge is over the south central and southeast part of the country. A few storms are possible Thursday afternoon across the higher terrain.
130 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017 The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Irma will gradually dissipate over the mid Mississippi valley through Wednesday. Weak high pressure will build into the area through the weekend, as Hurricane Jose spins in the Atlantic between the Bahamas and Bermuda. Weak high pressure over the southwestern Atlantic will be in control on Wednesday across the region as the upper low from the remnants of Irma spins over the Mid-Mississippi Valley.
Cooler weather can be expected today given abundant cloud cover and light rain. High temperatures by the weekend will rise into the lower 80s. A second band should move into the area later today before the upper low lifts northeast.
Cyclonic flow and plenty of cloud cover will keep winds mostly northeasterly, becoming lighter and more variable as the low center finally moves out to the east later today. Beyond Wednesday, a weak ridge returns to the region. Thursday starts a slow warm up under the ridge.
401 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 High clouds this evening have kept our temperatures warmer tonight in comparison to these last few nights, with current temperatures in the upper 50s/ lower 60s in our northern zones ranging into the upper 70s closer to the coast.
1126 PM MDT Tue Sep 12 2017 Water vapor imagery shows compact upper low centered across western SD pushing E/NE. Activity tonight will continue to slide eastward as the upper low moves into the central and eastern Dakotas overnight. Flat upper ridging will continue across the region through Wednesday with the next upper wave bringing additional chances for storms Wed afternoon and evening.
338 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Fall-like weather is expected again today thanks to the remnants of Irma, which is currently being stretched from SW to NE along the lower Mississippi Valley. Otherwise, stayed pretty close to MAV guidance for forecast highs today which should be in the low to mid 80s.
1226 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 219 PM CDT Deterministic NAM/GFS/ECM are in reasonable agreement regarding the track of the stacked low pressure system associated with the remnants of Irma through late Wednesday. All three show a closed upper low lifting into the Ohio Valley with the surface center opening into a weak trough over southern Illinois. Considerable cloudiness across the southeast half of the forecast area will flatten the diurnal temperature curve tonight and tomorrow, keeping that area warmer overnight and cooler tomorrow than areas to the northwest. Lenning 150 PM CDT Expect the remnants of the upper low from former Hurricane Irma to open up and get caught up in the westerlies allowing upper ridging to become re-established across the Great Lakes region Wednesday night into Thursday.
Am not very confident these storms will move into the the far Southwest Nebraska counties, but upper level short wave trough will deepen some before sunrise, which along with the elevated CAPE may allow the storms to make it into these counties before dissipating completely. sunny skies continue to persist with temperatures ranging from the upper 80s into the lower 90s. with the area remaining between high pressure to the east and a trough over east Colorado. isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed and moved across portions of eastern Colorado near the trough. H5/H7 ridging over the area will give locales highs around or in the 90s thru the period.
340 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Mid level ridging will hold east of Florida today and Thursday as a deep trough lifts from the southern Mississippi River Valley into the northeastern CONUS. At the surface, weak high pressure will continue to build across the area through Thursday. Dry air is continuing to work into the region on the southern side of the trough, which will keep rain chances rather limited once again today. However, as the trough lifts away on Thursday, moisture will gradually increase, allowing for more scattered to numerous storm coverage. Hurricane Jose and associated upper trough features to remain in the Western Atlantic through mid week.
Cooler weather can be expected today given abundant cloud cover and light rain.
657 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017 A blocking upper ridge of high pressure keeps New England under a mostly clear sky with warm temperatures for the next few days. 7 am Update: Fog has formed in the CT River Valley otherwise clear skies elsewhere under the ridge of high pressure. Previous Discussion: The blocking surface and upper ridge of high pressure remains over the region so another mostly sunny and warm day. Some high clouds may spill through the ridge at times over southern areas. Tonight will be mostly clear but mid/high clouds well in advance of the remnants of IRMA over the midwest will spill through the upper ridge axis over the region later tonight.
The trough, currently in British Columbia, is on track to move into the Pacific Northwest on Thursday. A cool easterly flow is forecast to bring easterly winds and much cooler temperatures ahead of and with the trough.
A pressure ridge will be just off the Southeast Coast through Thursday. Ridging is forecast to extend through the forecast area over the weekend with Jose well off the coast. High pressure just off the coast will mainly dominate through tonight. Moisture here should remain limited with surface ridging just south and east.
A low pressure system will move into the region tonight through Thursday bringing an increased chance for rain showers and thunderstorms along with breezy and cooler weather on Thursday. High pressure will encompass much of the four corners region today with a closed low pressure center off the central California coast keeping Arizona in a southwesterly flow.
302 AM PDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Low pressure along the central California coast along with above normal moisture will produce showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. The first cold front of the Fall season will bring gusty winds Thursday along with another chance for showers or storms.
Upper level high pressure is building into western Colorado today. A weak upper level disturbance will move through the ridge to bring isolated showers and storms to the region this afternoon and evening. The high resolution models don't really favor any one location over another today, showing the usual development over the mountains in the afternoon but then also bringing some activity eastward across the plains later in the day into the evening. Models continue to support a pattern change ongoing through the end of the work week and into the weekend, as the persistent upper ridge across the Rockies breaks down with a series of embedded disturbances within increasing southwesterly flow aloft across the region.
Upper low now just to the southwest of Monterey Bay. Thunderstorms have been firing early this morning around the low center just offshore, and across the northern San Joaquin Valley and Sierra to the northeast of the low. Current temperatures are running around 3-10 degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago and range rom the mid 40s in the mountain valleys to the 60s to mid 70s in the Central Valley. The thunderstorm threat will continue from about the Sacramento region southward this morning as the upper low tracks onshore into central California. The low will shift east tonight as a trough moves into the Pacific Northwest.
137 AM MDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Water vapor imagery shows compact upper low centered across western SD pushing E/NE. Activity tonight will continue to slide eastward as the upper low moves into the central and eastern Dakotas overnight. Flat upper ridging will continue across the region through Wednesday with the next upper wave bringing additional chances for storms Wed afternoon and evening.
The overall warmer air over the area will also account for increasingly warmer lows overnight than we've seen in recent days especially across the lower plains.
Weak high pressure builds for the weekend with slightly more humid air.
Smoke models suggest a return later today with west to southwest flow aloft and weak cold air advection as a cold front drops down from the north. Upper flow becomes increasingly southwest tonight and Thursday as a trof digs south from BC. The cooler air will help with low level humidity recovery, so could see some showers producing measurable rain by Thursday morning.
Rain and drizzle will gradually end from southwest to northeast late tonight into Thursday an upper level low over our western counties gradually shifts northeast of our area. As the upper low exits the Tennessee Valley, heights aloft will rise dramatically the rest of the week into the weekend as an upper ridge builds over the region and 500 mb heights reach up to near 590dm.
Deep layer southwest flow will continue through Thursday night with low level ridging to our east and an upper level short wave trough over the north-central Gulf. Temperatures will be slightly below normal with highs in the mid 80s and lows ranging from the low 60s to low 70s.
This weather system will bring a prolonged period of showers and cooler than normal temperatures to the Ohio Valley. Dry weather and warmer temperatures are forecast to arrive for the weekend. This low will continue to weaken and track slowly north into western KY by Wednesday morning. Showers may continue Wednesday evening before the center of the upper low moves east to Ohio later Wednesday night, allowing a decreasing trend in forcing and shower coverage. The period begins with the remnant low pressure center of Irma close to the eastern edge of the fa. Temperatures will remain on the cool side, with highs in the lower 70s.
1125 PM MDT Tue Sep 12 2017 Afternoon convection has developed as expected today with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms being confined to the higher terrain, though a few storms may drift off into the lower valleys. For Wednesday, a closed low will slowly meander across southern California flattening the weak upper level ridge over our forecast area. The aforementioned closed SoCal low is projected to become an open wave on Thursday, shunted by the arrival of a broader upper level trough diving in from the Pacific Northwest. The first trough and associated cold front will trek across our forecast area late Thursday and bring with it numerous showers and thunderstorms ahead and along the boundary.
300 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Weak high pressure will build across and offshore the Carolinas through this afternoon, while a weak area of low pressure tracks northeast across central and eastern VA. Isentropic upglide, as per 00Z 850mb analysis, helping to maintain a few showers along and north of the sfc warm front, stretching from the Triad to near Raleigh to Halifax. Lows in the lower to mid 60s. Increasingly sheared remnants of IRMA'S mid/upper level vorticity center will drift northeast and then linger across the Mid-Atlantic region through the weekend as as an upper level ridge over the western GOM builds slowly northeast into the region. Winds may lessen and become calm during the next several hours, however, as high pressure builds across the Carolinas.
/22/ Today and Tonight: Warmer and drier through the period.
Given the lingering cloud cover for the eastern half of the area, kept temps slightly cooler there with max values in the mid/upper 70s with 80s expected farther west. Upper ridging then builds from the west with gradually rising surface pressures and a return to southerly surface flow for the last half of the period. Given this pattern, expecting a return to quiet weather with temperatures increasing markedly by Thursday afternoon as highs climb into the mid and upper 80s with some locations in western AR possibly reaching the low 90s.
Temperatures have been steady in the lower 80s. The higher concentration of activity beyond this morning should be north of the area as land/sea interactions drive much of the shower and storm activity across the Florida peninsula. Lows tonight will be in the lower 80s for the area except the upper 70s in the Upper Keys. Weak ridging will be in place, but this should not inhibit rain chances and will keep 30s/40s in the forecast for much of the period.
347 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Today and Tonight: Warmer and drier through the period.
Low ceilings, relatively light winds, and patchy fog are present with temperatures as of 3 AM CDT in the lower 60s at most locations. Highs today are anticipated to moderate into the lower 70s west of the Mississippi River but remain in the middle 60s near the Tennessee River. Models indicate mid/upper level ridging will gradually build into the Lower Mississippi Valley for the remainder of the week into the weekend.
Today, sunshine, warmer temperatures, and light surface winds can be expected.
358 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017 The very broad circulation associated with the remnants of Hurricane Irma is slowly tracking northward with the center of the low pressure crossing through the Tennessee Valley early this morning. The low pressure is set to track east by Thursday night as another upper ridge settles overhead. Surface pressure high pressure is forecast to reside over the eastern Great Lakes putting Michigan in light southerly surface winds for the weekend.
Low pressure moving through the area today and Thursday will bring showers and thunderstorms to parts of the area.
South Central Texas remains under northerly flow aloft due to the ridge across the western US and the upper low associated with the remnants of Irma across the Tennessee Valley. Surface flow will become more southerly Wednesday afternoon, which will help usher in warmer temperatures. The ridge across the western US will gradually shift east, putting the region firmly under its influence.
351 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Weak high pressure will build across and offshore the Carolinas through this afternoon, while a weak area of low pressure tracks northeast across central and eastern VA. Isentropic upglide, as per 00Z 850mb analysis, helping to maintain a few showers along and north of the sfc warm front, stretching from the Triad to near Raleigh to Halifax.
The rain will end from west to east during the late morning and afternoon as the upper low lifts northeast from Kentucky into Indiana this afternoon.
A dry upper trough will move slowly southeast into the region today, for partly to mostly sunny skies and near normal temperatures.
While the western counties will switch around to southerly winds and mix into slightly higher temperatures than today into the upper 80s to near 90, the eastern counties may get one more day in the low to middle 80s as the warmer temps aloft move eastward later in the day. Lows tonight fall into the lower 60s.
202 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017 A warm front crosses the region tonight into Wednesday morning as the remnants of Irma lift northeastward into the Ohio Valley. The upper level trough associated with Irma tracks across the Mid-Atlantic Thursday.
Southwesterly flow at the surface and aloft, combined with a seasonally warm thermal ridge should result in temperatures 10 or more degrees above normal in many areas.
Model forecasts pick up on at least three short waves in association with the deep low pressure system. As the upper low gets picked up in the main westerly flow, it will gradually shift east through the short term increasing the chance for a shower across Central East Tennessee from mid day into the afternoon. Southwest Virginia and Northeast Tennessee will probably not see any rain until late in the day and more likely, tonight with the eastward migrating low pressure system. Deep moisture with the upper low keeps western sections a few degrees cooler.
349 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Remains of Irma were located in the vicinity of West TN this morning as it was part of a broad trough over the lower MS Valley. The better moisture associated with the weakening cyclone should remain over northwest GA. Temperatures should recover some today and will be warmer on Thursday.
Severe parameters looks rather unimpressive, as there are no vort maxes passing by and model derived 500 mb temps appear warmer than -6 C.
333 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017 High pressure continues to dominate the weather over the North Country today with mainly dry and seasonably warm temperatures.