Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
600 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018 332 AM CDT As the center of high pressure settles over the Middle Mississippi Valley this morning, clear skies and light winds have developed overnight. Temperatures should drop into the middle 20s by daybreak, with a few isolated locations possibly dipping into the lower 20s, while the urbanized areas of the Chicago Metro remain a bit warmer. With upper ridging building across the region today, temperatures should be able to climb in to the 50s today. However, a light pressure gradient and strong differential heating between the cold lake and warmer land should be sufficient to generate a lake breeze. So, while much of the CWA sees temps climbing into the 50s, the lakefront may only reach the lower to middle 40s, before dropping back into the upper 30s as the lake breeze pushes inland.
1211 AM MDT Sun Mar 18 2018 A complex storm system will moving through the area this weekend bringing areas of snow and freezing drizzle. At lower elevations, the precipitation type will fluctuate between snow and freezing drizzle. An upper level low, clearly visible on satellite imagery, is lifting NE through SW MT at this time. North of the low, low clouds and fog continue to cause reductions to VIS/CIGs, as well as mtn obscurations. As the low pulls away from the area, lingering moisture and some weak instability will allow the precip to become more showery in nature.
141 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 High pressure will bring a dry and pleasant day to the region. Main theme though will be ridging sfc and aloft building across the wrn OH valley on Sunday yielding the mildest day of the upcoming week. Primary notable trend is with significant height suppression within deep nrn stream upper troughing over ern Canada steering deep cyclone spinning up over wrn KS late Sunday south of the OH river Mon-Tue. Otherwise within suppressed height field aloft, cool thermal troughing will persist and actually intensify some Wed-Thu with well below normal temps through the period. High pressure overhead will lead to light winds and clear skies.
408 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 Weak low pressure will move across the central Great Lakes today with a cold front crossing the region this evening. High pressure will then ridge into the area from Ontario as low pressure tracks eastward between the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys Monday and Monday night.
Towards the surface, lee troughing will strengthen tonight with southeasterly winds across western Kansas. Meanwhile, the area of low pressure across eastern Colorado will slide eastward into far western Kansas in the afternoon. As for temperatures, lows tonight are expected to dip into the mid to upper 30s with highs tomorrow ranging from the low 70s across far western Kansas with mid to upper 60s elsewhere. The remainder of the week looks dry as an upper level ridge builds over the western United States with high pressure being the dominate feature at the surface.
One or more low pressure systems are expected to develop off the mid Atlantic coast midweek and currently look to pass far enough south of our area to keep us dry.
Low pressure off the coast will maintain showery and cool weather over the region today into Mon. But, as the low moves farther south, will see drier weather for later Mon into Tue.
Low pressure will deepen tonight and Monday across the Central U.
609 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 An unseasonably cold air mass will remain in place across the region through early this week as high pressure slowly builds to the south of the area.
1223 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018 High pressure will gradually build eastward into portions of the Central Great Lakes by Sunday Night, while an inverted trough develops over the Central Dakotas due to a developing Colorado Low. This will allow for strong radiational cooling before clouds move in, so overnight lows are a few degrees cooler than the previous forecast. Lows range from the teens across Inland locations, to the low to mid 20s along the Lake Superior Shoreline. With the increased cloud cover, expect cooler temperatures in comparison to today, but it still will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than normal. This will bring low chances of snow and freezing drizzle along the International Border. The Colorado Low previously mentioned will eject into the Lower Mississippi River Valley on Monday, while the inverted trough over the Dakotas slides eastward.
Afternoon composite analysis reveals northern Michigan remains sandwiched between deep troughing/cold air across Ontario/New England and warmer air/ridging through the central CONUS. only to return once again on Sunday as the low departs to the SE. and potentially some shallow SCT-BKN stratus development with the front Sunday as the low departs to the SE. aforementioned cloud cover issues and slightly stronger low level winds makes that problematic and statistical guidance sources certainly are running warmer with tonights lows as compared to last nights. High pressure begins to build in north of the backdoor cold front and wedges the front south and west into the forecast area by Monday morning.
350 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 Weak high pressure will move from the Plains into the Ohio valley today while low pressure ripples along a polar front stalled over the northern Great Lakes. Low level temperature fields in the models indicate the flow will build the thermal ridge into central Lower Michigan early in the day and expand it southward through the afternoon. The NAM and GFS are closer to 850 mb which is the difference between high temps in the lower 50s versus the mid 50s suggested by the RAP. Prefer to lean the forecast toward the warmer end of the spectrum considering how temperatures responded to full mid March sun yesterday afternoon once the high clouds exited the region.
High pressure will result in dry conditions with temperatures warming through tomorrow.
A strong cold front over far western MN to near the NE/IA border into eastern KS will push east into nw/west central IL around 12Z/Sun and push into nw IN and se IL by 00Z/7 pm Sunday. Mild lows tonight in the lower 60s. Highs Sunday range from lower 60s by Galesburg to the low to mid 70s in eastern IL.
310 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 A large area of high pressure centered over Pennsylvania and eastern Virginia this morning will drift slowly to the east over the next few days, providing us with a spectacular Autumn weekend to enjoy the fall foliage that will be near its peak color. A high-amplitude and cold upper trough will become carved out across the eastern U.
Question will be how much of the forecast area experiences freezing/sub freezing temperatures. For Sunday am expecting afternoon temperatures to peak in the low 70s under a generally sunny sky. Sunday night, expecting further ridging building into the area allowing for sunny skies and breezy winds up to 35 mph.
317 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017 As for this afternoon, the main severe weather threat should be to the east of our area, as the cold front should be just east of the Barber/Pratt county area by the time of convective initiation. Models are running much warmer than the group of various MOS output, especially the EKDMOS and ECMWF mos products which would reach even hard freeze type lows in the far western counties.
However, high pressure ridging will be the dominant feature beginning Sunday and continuing for the next several days.
318 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 High pressure over the Middle Atlantic will continue to shift offshore the eastern US through Sunday. Precipitation chances will begin to increase, especially from the west, Sunday night as a cold front approaches from the Lower Mississippi River Valley.
1102 AM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Upper trough is crossing the central to northern Rockies into the High Plains. Surface analysis shows the cold front now crossing south central SD approaching KICR. Upper trough will quickly push through the area today with the line of showers transitioning eastward into central SD by mid to late morning. Warmer temperatures will move back into the area with highs reaching into the 60s to mid 70s. Upper ridging over the region will weaken as a series of upper waves push into the northern Rockies and Plains. A cold front will cross the CWA Sunday night with a few showers possible. Strong ridging will then develop over the western half of the CONUS through the first half of the work week bringing another stretch of dry weather.
Near-normal temperatures will make a brief return this weekend, before a strong area of high pressure builds over the Western U. Very hazy looking skies today over some of the lower deserts today including metro Phoenix.
410 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017 A couple of lingering showers and thunderstorms very late afternoon, but progression of trough will end things quickly this evening and bring clearing into the area. Influx of much drier air and weakening gradient overnight will allow temps to fall into the 30s overnight, with a few readings around 40 for the Buffalo Ridge where winds may stay up a bit better.
Think the showers will continue to lift northeastward through the next few hours, while another band of light rain with the main trough axis moves only slowly east from central ND. Tonight, skies will clear off as the cold front pushes the rest of the way across the region.
A new area of showers and thunderstorms was now moving toward the extreme southwest border, in the vicinity of the strong cold front moving across western Minnesota. Temperatures were generally in the lower 60s across the region. The cold front will continue to barrel eastward across the region as the night wears on. The Northland can expect a much cooler week ahead, in comparison to the near-summer-like weather we had this past week.
Cooler temperatures will prevail tonight and tomorrow as a weak trough has brought somewhat fall-like weather to the area. This will be short lived however as a strong ridge will allow temps to return to the mid and upper 90s by the middle of the week. A slight cooldown is forecast once again late in the week as a trough sweeps through Utah into New Mexico. For the first time in a few weeks, it actually feels "normal" outside as cooler air has settled into the region. The reprieve from the heat will be short lived as ridging will return tomorrow and will last through most of the upcoming week.
414 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 A ridge of high pressure will bring dry and warmer than normal weather to eastern Kentucky through early Sunday evening. Tonights low will also be warmer than normal, with minimum readings ranging from the upper 40s to the mid 50s across the area. Cloud cover will finally begin to increase Sunday evening, as a large trough of low pressure aloft, and its attendant surface cold front, begin moving across the region. At the surface, an area of low pressure is expected to be approaching from TN Valley region.
552 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Most recent model guidance is hinting at somewhat stronger gradient winds tomorrow as the low pressure and cold front approach. Looks as though we will be transitioning into a wet pattern during the short term as a deep mid/upper level low pressure system and it's associated cold front move ever so slowly through the MS River Valley. Some rains will also linger behind the cold front Sunday night, but the heavier rainfall should shift just east of the region after midnight.
The Atlantic ridge will hold strong over the mid-atlantic states through Sunday resulting in a generally nice albeit warm and humid finish to the weekend. Moisture will be on the increase on Sunday as a cold front moves southeastward toward the western Gulf.
An upper level trough and associated cold front will be the main focus in the short term, with the potential for some severe storms later this evening. At the surface this afternoon, a cold front was moving south and currently located across the southern Panhandle into northwest Oklahoma. At the upper levels, a strong trough was located across the central and southern Rockies, with large scale ascent starting to increase across the Southern Plains. The Hi Res models(HRRR, Texas Tech WRF) indicate scattered storms developing along the cold front and moving east across parts of the Big Country this evening. After midnight, a line of storms are likely along the cold front across the Heartland and Northwest Hill Country.
405 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Latest WPC surface analysis shows a strong 1029 mb cell of high pressure over the mid Atlantic region, with a weak stationary boundary draped across the Bahamas. 7", with a majority of the moisture located in the lower and upper levels of the atmosphere. Mid range models prog a low pressure trough to deepen over the Ohio valley, dragging a sharp cold front southward over the Gulf.
High pressure will build over the southwest through mid week with above average high temperatures. Another cold front could impact the area late this week. High pressure will start to build over The Southwest tonight.
High pressure over the region will gradually shift east.
The bigger forecast focus is the approaching cold front overnight tonight that will trek across Texas and reach the northern CWA likely just before dawn. These should die down by the evening and allow for a very favorable radiational cooling set up with high pressure, light winds, and clear skies.
The low and mid levels are dry. Tonight, the cirrus will stick around with light southerly flow around 5 mph to keep temperatures in the mid 50s to 60 which is warmer than last night. Sunday, a deep sharp trough and cold front will approach the region from the west.
251 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Some lingering clouds and light snow continued into the early afternoon behind the latest cold front and trough passage along the northern and central divide mountains, with not much impact. Skies were mostly clear aside from that with much cooler temperatures this afternoon than 24 hours ago, on the order of 20 degrees cooler. Expect these clouds and light snow showers to dissipate late this afternoon as high pressure builds to the west and the trough shifts further eastward.
159 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Thunderstorms should develop in the 2:30-4:00 PM timeframe across parts of northeast KS, along a cold front and pre-frontal confluence axis -- within a corridor centered from Seneca toward Council Grove. The front should clear the forecast area by 9 PM with a few lingering showers in its wake tonight, and winds becoming northwesterly in its wake with cooler temperatures anticipated into Sunday. The next storm system by weeks end looks to bring much cooler temperatures and the possibility of wintry precipitation. The upper level trough responsible for today's thunderstorm activity will continue its trek eastward, away from the CWA.
The models show very good agreement now from even the previous run with the upper level flow and short wave troughs affecting our region from Sunday night through Saturday.
214 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017 As of 2 PM, a cold front extended from eastern Nebraska through central Kansas and into the Oklahoma Panhandle. The cold front will be in the process of moving through the Ozarks during the first half of day Sunday.
An area of low pressure was located over south central Canada at 07Z. A cold front extended south from the low through the central Dakotas, while a quasi-stationary front was north of the Minnesota/Canada border. A stiff southerly flow of air/moisture was working its way into the area ahead of the low on a strong low level jet. The cold front begins to move into the western third of the forecast area by 00Z, and reaches the far eastern edge of the region by 12Z Sunday. The front pushes out of the region Sunday morning accompanied by a sharp upper level trof. Some rain will linger from the Arrowhead into the Hayward Lakes area and points east in the morning due to their proximity to the departing front and the upper trof.
Low temps will range from near 30 in the mountains to near 40 in the lower valleys. Sunday will be warmer than today with highs 45 to 55 in the mountains and 55 to 65 in the lower valleys, warmest in southern Malheur County.
551 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather through Sunday.
Sfc cold front has made it through western and central ND. Forecast highlights in the short term period will be gusty westerly winds over the next 12-14 hours along with cooler daytime highs. Currently, upper level trough extends from the southern Rockies northward over the Northern High Plains region with south- southwest flow aloft over the Dakotas. Cold front over central ND ahead of the trough continues to move eastward. For today, winds remain breezy across the local region, especially the higher terrain of the southwest where BUFKIT analysis continues to suggest 35-40KT winds within the mixed layer. Much cooler today behind this morning's front with highs mainly in the 50s.
In addition, MET and MAV guidance showing winds in excess of 30 knots during the day, so with all factors considered, we feel fairly confident that stronger winds aloft will be able to mix down to the surface, and thus we have expanded the high wind warning to include Douglas, Rawlins, Laramie, Wheatland and Cheyenne after 9 am, continuing through the afternoon. Fortunately, temperatures will be warmer as the airmass moderates. Strong winds may continue over our wind prone locations based on strengthening 500 mb winds, though the 700 mb gradient weakens, and therefore, we will not extend the high wind warning at this time.
119 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Strong high pressure will shift offshore this weekend.
300 PM MST Sat Oct 21 2017 Near-normal temperatures will make a brief return this weekend, before a strong area of high pressure builds over the Western U. Very hazy looking skies today over some of the lower deserts today including metro Phoenix.
A strong ridge of high pressure will build along the West Coast, and bring in much warmer and drier air to the area.
308 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Early afternoon satellite imagery, surface observations and radar returns all point at a large trough, who's axis is currently swinging through the Rocky Mountains into the Northern Plains, is helping push a strong cold front quickly east this afternoon. A little scattering in the skies ahead of the front has allowed surface temperatures to climb into the low to mid 70s just ahead of the front this afternoon, resulting in surface CAPE values in between 1500-2000 J/KG. However, there will be some cooler temperatures later this week as a prevailing northwest flow dominates our section of the Plains States, allowing temperatures to roller coaster up and down a couple times this week. MVFR clouds currently prevail ahead of a cold front that will sweep across the terminals this evening, roughly between 6 and 8 PM.
Confidence is high that showers and storms will blossom eventually due to the deep convergence and deep, strong thermodynamic and kinematic forcing with the long wave trough passage, but less so with respect to intensity. Skies should clear into tomorrow as the system departs with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today.
High pressure will begin building over the region Sunday and then remain in place through much of the upcoming week.
1244 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Steady south winds and mid level cloud cover were keeping temps about 5-10 degrees warmer than this time last night. While not a great setup for large hail, steep lapse rates and lowering freezing levels due support a large hail risk, mainly early on in the event.
210 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017 The cold front continues to progress southward this afternoon across northwestern OK, with a few elevated showers quickly lifting northeast ahead of it. Tomorrow will be quiet with much cooler and drier air moving into the Southern Plains.
By 00Z this evening, the base of the trough will be fully into North Dakota to be followed by a weak ridge over the Montana prairie tonight. Winds will be diminishing as clearing skies allow for airmass to decouple and the ridging weakens the winds aloft. Expect most lows to fall into the 30s due to the much cooler air in place. Near term models indicate that ridge tops across the remainder of Phillips county will likely see gusts to 55 or 60 mph, so will expand warning into all of Phillips County. The clipper system expands into a deep trough as it heads towards the Great Lakes.
320 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather through Sunday.
Cold front has moved through Amarillo and as it pushes southward expect storms to become more numerous across NTX tonight.
The low levels of the atmosphere continue to moisten up with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. No rain expected overnight due to dry air mass in place, but moisture will increase rapidly after sunrise Sunday as strong upper trof approaches the Mississippi River.
due to the thin cirrus and cooler than expected hourly values. Main high pressure ridge is weakening and loosing its grip on the southeastern U.
Ceilings to begin to deteriorate to MVFR around 22/06Z ahead of an approaching cold front.
One place to watch will be LBF where guidance is showing lows a cool as the lower 20s. A transitory ridge will build across the western States resulting in dry and warm conditions for Sunday. A westerly component of the lower tropospheric wind will help push highs back into the 70s for most locations. The warm temperatures will allow for near critical relative humidity with readings in the lower 20s over most places.
Main thing will be the breezy wind speeds behind the cold front today with KGUY and KDHT already behind the front with KAMA expected to have the front pass soon. The cold front is currently moving through central KS/CO and should be to the OK Panhandle by 13-15z and then to Amarillo by 18-19z. The cold front will move quickly through the area today and be south of the fcst area by around 00Z this evening. Rather dry air will invade the OK and TX Panhandles behind this cold front. The combination of clear skies, dry air, and light winds late tonight into early Sunday morning will result in temperatures falling into the lower to middle 30s across much of the OK Panhandle and western half of the TX Panhandle.
253 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Cold front at 19z extended from Onawa, IA southward into the Omaha metro area, and southward toward Beatrice, NE.
154 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 High pressure centered along the Atlantic Coast will keep dry weather over the Ohio Valley today and Sunday.
Further east, strong mixed west winds will spread across the lower elevations on Sunday, with expectation of widespread 40-55 mph gusts. Temps will be warmer Sunday with highs in the 60s to near 70 degrees.
Some of this could linger across eastern portions of area into the aftn hours, depending on the trough beginning to close off as it moves east across northern AR.
The high pressure at the surface and aloft over the region will be shifting east during the period, with moisture starting to increase ahead of the next system. At the start of the period the deep trough axis will be located generally over Missouri and Arkansas with the associated cold front approaching Middle Tennessee.
508 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 A large area of high pressure centered over Pennsylvania and eastern Virginia this morning will drift slowly to the east over the next few days, providing us with a spectacular Autumn weekend to enjoy the fall foliage that will be near its peak color. A high-amplitude and cold upper trough will become carved out across the eastern U.
257 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Upper trough across eastern CO is currently pushing into the central plains with dry air spreading in behind. Given clearing skies and cold airmass over the area, should see a clear cold night across southern Colorado with temperatures dropping into the teens across the high mountains and valleys and 20s to lower 30s elsewhere. Surface lee trough deepens along the I-25 corridor and adjacent plains which should help mix down some breezy west to northwest winds into the valleys and lower elevations of the southeast mountains by afternoon. Elsewhere winds will remain light with a good warm up as temperatures across the lower elevations return into the lower 70s.