Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Models try to hint a weak weave pushing through the ridge axis providing a little support for a few isolated showers Sunday afternoon. Should be a bit warmer on Sunday as boundary layer turns a bit warmer, but still should be a pleasant day with low humidity. The period is expected to begin with a closed low off the northeast US coast with an upper level ridge from Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico north into the MS Valley and western Great Lakes with a trough over the western Conus. Meanwhile an upper level low is expected to be approaching the Pacific Northwest. The upper level low is expected to drop south and southeast to the Four Corners region from the start of the period through midweek before opening up and meandering into the Plains at the end of the period.
115 PM EDT Sat May 13 2017 Aviation Weak low pressure with move through today with only a slight chance of showers.
/issued 1059 AM CDT Sat May 13 2017/ No significant changes to the forecast, but minor adjustments to the high temperatures and sky cover.
/Issued 1051 AM CDT Sat May 13 2017/ Current forecast for Today is on track as high pressure reigns supreme.
/issued 400 AM CDT Sat May 13 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): 500mb ridge across the central United States today will move eastward tonight into Sunday.
359 PM EDT Sat May 13 2017 Low pressure across eastern Wisconsin will track southeast across northwest Pennsylvania early Sunday morning.
609 PM EDT Sat May 13 2017 Low pressure across eastern Wisconsin will track southeast across northwest Pennsylvania early Sunday morning.
258 PM CDT Sat May 13 2017 This afternoon a broad upper level trough was located across the western US, while an downstream upper level ridge was located across the plains. The upper trough across the western US will shear apart with the northern section of the upper trough lifting northeast into west central Canada. The southern section of the upper trough will dig southeast across CA. The upper level ridge across the plains will slowly shift east into the MS river valley after 00Z MON.
But, sunny skies continue Sunday as a ridge of high pressure aloft flatten's as upper level low pressure approaches from the West Coast.
1254 PM CDT Sat May 13 2017 After some isolated morning fog in a few areas, the sun will again dominate the region with high pressure in firm control. As the high moves off to the East, the pressure gradient will tighten up some allowing the winds to kick around to the South as the next short wave approaches the region.
But, sunny skies continue Sunday as a ridge of high pressure aloft flattens as upper level low pressure approaches from the West Coast.
The cold low pressure system, currently centered in southwest Washington, has and will continue to have a strong influence on the weather in north-central Idaho and western Montana through Sunday. Temperatures near or below freezing are again in the forecast for Sunday morning, and afternoon temperatures remain 10-15 degrees below average.
H5 ridging overtop the central CONUS this weekend will continue to slowly shift east the rest of the weekend. Strengthening high pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico should tighten the pressure gradient across the CWA tomorrow afternoon resulting in breezy afternoon winds of 15-20 mph across the western third of the area.
212 PM EDT Sat May 13 2017 Low pressure continues moving across the region and will move through the Midlands late this morning and offshore this evening. This will keep showers and thunderstorms over the area today with high pressure and drier air overtaking the region tonight.
551 PM EDT Sat May 13 2017 Low pressure will continue to move away from the area this evening, with high pressure and drier air overtaking the region tonight.
Winds should weaken and turn onshore tonight as upper level disturbances off the PacNW coast consolidate tonight forming an an upper trough along the N CA coast. Models in decent agreement moving the trough onshore through the Bay Area Sunday.
Relative Humidities are dropping down into the lower 20s at this time across the southern RRV, and should bottom out soon. Mid level ridge axis to shift over the forecast area today. On the surface, warm frontal boundary currently along the ND/SD border into west central Mn expected to lift north to near the highway 2 corridor by evening. North of the boundary cooler but still seeing highs in the 70s. Thermal ridge axis ahead of surface boundary reaches the western fa by tomorrow morning. Region shifts into mid level sw flow Sunday as upper ridge shifts east.
552 PM EDT Sat May 13 2017 Low pressure will move northeast off the Jersey shore tonight and to the southern tip of Nova Scotia by late Sunday night.
219 PM CDT Sat May 13 2017 Area of high pressure currently southwest of Illinois will settle into the lower Mississippi Valley overnight, resulting in winds swinging around to the southwest with time. The upper ridge over the Plains will slowly build eastward, and keep our area mainly clear into Sunday.
Warm dry weather is expected this weekend and through the early part of the week with high pressure over the area. Kept highs in the lower 70s over west sections to middle and upper 70s far west. Very few forecast challenges through the short term as high pressure remains the primary influence into the early part of the week. Low pressure will dive out of the Great Lakes this evening and into western Pennsylvania by daybreak Sunday. Track of the low and primary forcing aloft remaining northeast of the region will keep any impacts limited to lingering clouds this evening over northeast portions of the forecast area. Central Indiana will remain in a general northwest flow aloft on Sunday with the upper ridge axis remaining to the west.
214 PM MDT Sat May 13 2017 Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper ridge centered over western South Dakota with an upper low moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest. There is a long wave trough extending southward from the Pacific northwest low down to the Baja Peninsula. At the surface, there is an area of low pressure just north of the Black Hills with a cold front extending through central Wyoming and a warm front along the North/South Dakota border. For this afternoon and evening, low level instability combined with convergence along and the cold front and eastern foothills will allow some showers and storms to develop. The cold front should move through most of the forecast area overnight. Temperatures will remain above normal behind the front, but will be about 10 cooler than Saturday.
On Sunday, a back door cold front will push across the plains in the early morning hours. Eventually, a small theta-e ridge and convergence zone is expected to develop late in the afternoon from Denver eastward. Highs will be a few degrees cooler but still above normal with most of the plains reaching the upper 70s.
318 PM EDT Sat May 13 2017 Low pressure will move northeast off the Jersey shore tonight and to the southern tip of Nova Scotia by late Sunday night.
108 PM EDT Sat May 13 2017 A cold front will push off the coast today. A weak and dry cold front will move through from the north Sunday night.
1123 AM MDT Sat May 13 2017 18Z TAF CYCLE SW winds will be breezy to windy today as the upper low moves into the PACNW.
140 PM EDT Sat May 13 2017 Low pressure and a trailing cold front track east off the SC coast this afternoon. Weak high pressure will build over NC.
128 PM EDT Sat May 13 2017 A cold front will push off the coast today. A weak and dry cold front will move through from the north Sunday night.
The remnant trough will continue to push slowly southward, promoting numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms along and ahead of it during the morning. Models are in good agreement the trough should be approaching the southern tip of the Florida peninsula by mid afternoon, limiting the best chances for rain to that part of the region late in the day. Behind the trough, however, sufficient moisture may remain for additional isolated showers at peak afternoon heating Sunday. Over the coming work week, a mostly quiet and dry weather pattern will be in place as a deep ridge of high pressure settles over the southeast states.
240 PM EDT Sat May 13 2017 High pressure will build east across NC tonight and Sunday.
A large closed upper level low pressure system continues to sit over the region. The center of the low is over Portland but sill slowly move eastward Washington late this afternoon and overnight. Have not mentioned thunder in the TAFs due to the low probability of one passing over a TAF site.
A narrow ridge of high pressure will set up across WI later in the night. Medium to High Surface/850 ridge axes proggd to shift east of the area with a return waa signal setting up in the afternoon. Not overly pronounced but some inference of a surface warm front in the wind field/isobars across sc WI.
1207 PM CDT Sat May 13 2017 Amplified upper level ridge remains the dominant feature over the next few days as it slowly traverses eastward across the center of the country.
216 PM EDT Sat May 13 2017 Low pressure will continue to move up the Atlantic seaboard through Sunday.
/issued 632 AM CDT Sat May 13 2017/ Continued VFR with light southerly winds under an upper ridge.
358 PM EDT Sat May 13 2017 Low pressure passing off the New England coast will result in breezy conditions through Sunday. After a breezy couple of days, High pressure will build across the area with the weather pattern becoming more summerlike heading into midweek. Sharp upper level trough is digging southeast from eastern Canada and into New England. Current thinking is very little of this activity will penetrate east of the Blue Ridge per the strong downslope northwest flow, but certainly can't rule out a stray shower albeit brief for Mother's Day.
High pressure at the surface and a ridge aloft will be building into the area through tonight and tomorrow.
221 PM CDT Sat May 13 2017 A ridge of high pressure over the nations mid section will remain the dominate weather feature in the short term. A weak wave will temporarily flatten the ridge top tonight.
Surface analysis places a 1016 mb ridge of high pressure over portions of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valleys and the Central/Southern Plains. An eastward moving upper low is situated over NW Alabama. Cooler air is filtering into the region behind this upper low.
/Issued 341 AM CDT Sat May 13 2017/ Upper level ridging will lead to a warm day across the Panhandles. As the day progresses we will see the ridge axis shift was of the Panhandles.
218 PM EDT Sat May 13 2017 Low pressure over the southern Appalachians will deepen as it reaches the mid Atlantic Coast this evening and then move up the East Coast on Sunday. A weak cold front will drop across the lower Great Lakes tonight.
1139 AM MDT Sat May 13 2017 One more warm to hot day is in store for the forecast area today as a ridge of high pressure currently in place over the Rocky Mountains gets displaced by an approaching trough of low pressure. Southerly flow will increase ahead of this trough of low pressure resulting in breezy conditions beginning this afternoon persisting into the early evening hours. However, model soundings are suggesting that the lower atmosphere will be much to dry to support any measurable precipitation. On Sunday 500mb heights will fall some as slightly cooler air moves into the area. The current satellite water vapor image is showing a ridge of high pressure positioned over the Rocky Mountains sliding to the east into the Great Plains. A low pressure system centered over the coast of Washington and Oregon is also evident.
Air temperatures in Keys island communities range between 85F and 90F, with dewpoint temperatures in the lower 70s. However, an approaching large-scale trough, weakening as though it may be, will provide sufficient forcing for ascent to destabilize the atmosphere enough for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms between late tonight and through the day on Sunday.
Temperatures have climbed into the low to middle 70s with a nice breeze. If you like it warmer, I've got the forecast for you.
Models try to hint a weak weave pushing through the ridge axis providing a little support for a few isolated showers Sunday afternoon. Should be a bit warmer on Sunday as boundary layer turns a bit warmer, but still should be a pleasant day with low humidity.
355 PM EDT Sat May 13 2017 High pressure will build in from the west tonight, then slide south Sunday. A weak and dry cold front will move through from the north Sunday night.
Warming in the mid-levels will occur as subsidence aloft sets in across the area and this will generally suppress convective chances for most of the period as the layered ridging becomes fairly deep. At the surface, high pressure will build off of the mid Atlc coast by early Tue with high pressure remaining stationed across the western Atlc into late week. The highest threat for this will likely be across the Treasure Coast. With rain wetting and a weakening frontal trough sagging into northern sections, there could be some stratus developing late, but haven't included that yet in the TAFs. Breezy southwest winds 15-20 knots will occur and necessitate exercise caution statements offshore into evening, then the pressure gradient will gradually slacken as a weakening frontal trough sags towards the waters.
242 PM CDT Sat May 13 2017 Strong upper ridge over the middle of the country will keep the area dry for the rest of the weekend into the beginning of the work week. The high pressure that's currently moving through will shift to the east of the area by tomorrow.
Nice weather expected today across central and southeast IL with a fair amount of sunshine and warmer highs in the upper 70s to around 80F and low humidities. Models have trended a few degrees warmer today from 76-81F with westerly winds 7-14 mph, ample sunshine and dry airmass.
305 PM MDT Sat May 13 2017 Dry and breezy to windy conditions expected over the next couple days as persistent upper trof remains in place along the west coast. All activity winds down during the evening with a mild night in store as lee troffing keeps min temps in the upper 40s lower 50s across the lower elevations with a mix of 30s and 40s for the high country. Sunday should be a few degrees warmer still with south to southwest winds mixing down again during the afternoon.
257 PM CDT Sat May 13 2017 Today's surface analysis at 19Z was fairly simple with broad weak high pressure over much of the Plains into Texas. Upper level analysis has ridging aloft over much of Texas and the Plains for that matter.
155 PM EDT Sat May 13 2017 Low pressure and a trailing cold front track east across SC this afternoon. Weak high pressure will build over NC.
644 PM EDT Sat May 13 2017 Weak low pressure and a cold front will move offshore tonight. High pressure returns and prevails for most of the upcoming week. The axis of heaviest rains has shifted offshore, but with the trough still hanging back to the west per experimental GOES-16 mid-level water vapor channel, will need to hang onto slight chance to low-end chance pops for a few more hours. Some clearing is beginning to work into the area from the west, but expect low-clouds to fill in later this evening once the low- level flow begins to back. At the surface, a cold front will be far offshore Sunday morning and high pressure will build across the Southeastern United States in its wake.
Highs should top out in the low to mid 90s out west with upper 80s across the Victoria Crossroads. Concur with the GFS/ECMWF/NAM deterministic which predict the upper pattern to shift EWD during the period with a N-S upper ridge axis to move east of the CWA/MSA while a high amplitude upper trough builds over the WRN CONUS.
Temperatures today will be in the lower 80s across the region with light winds which makes this a great day for outdoor activities.
An area of low pressure will track East across the region this afternoon, with showers and storms expected. A cold front will move Southeast into SE GA this evening, then slowly move across NE FL overnight into Sunday morning.
243 PM EDT Sat May 13 2017 Current surface analysis reveals a very broad 1016mb high pressure system over southwestern MO influencing central KY and southern IN with no significant fronts/boundaries in sight. Not expecting any precipitation to fall from the clouds as strong subsidence associated with the high pressure will keep vertical growth of clouds limited. Anticyclonic flow around the high pressure will keep winds light out of the west and northwest through most of the day Sunday. Temperatures Sunday afternoon will be 5 to 8 degrees warmer than today's afternoon temperatures as some warmer air advects in aloft. High-amplitude ridge over the central Plains will begin to slowly propagate toward our region through much of the early to mid-week period.
745 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated confluent mid/upper level flow through nrn Ontario into the nrn Great Lakes between a trough from Quebec into nrn New England and a ridge from IA into the ern Dakotas. Today, ne flow CAA will drop 850 mb temps to around -12C and keep temps below normal with highs from the mid and upper 20s north to the lower 30s south. A weak upper level trough will bring an increase in mid-level clouds Tue into Wed but low-level dry air in a ne flow circulating around a Hudson Bay high should ensure dry conditions.
A line of showers along the first of two cold fronts should briefly impact BPT-LCH- AEX beginning around 13-14Z, then shifting eastward into LFT-ARA by 15Z. The gusty winds will diminish Tuesday evening as high pressure begins to settle over the region setting up a beautiful mid week forecast with seasonal temperatures and plenty of sun. A cold front will move through the area during the day ushering in drier air which will allow this fog to dissipate.
Perhaps the lowest ceilings will develop at cha during the day but would expect they will remain vfr. The worst flight weather will occur later this afternoon into the evening hours as a strong low pressure system drives east across the Lower Ohio Valley. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will develop ahead of a cool frontal boundary associated with the low, dropping flight weather into the mvfr, and possibly briefly into an ifr category for a few hours between 00z-05z. Drier air will build into the region breaking the lower ceilings.
Road temps will be above freezing all day in the valley as snowfall rates will be too light to overcome the warming of the pavement from solar insolation. Upper level ridge was over the area this morning ad will shift east.
749 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 A warm front will be south of the forecast area today. The front will lift northward and into the area tonight ahead of approaching low pressure.
633 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Stacked upper low currently resides along the southern Kansas and Oklahoma border this early morning. Meanwhile a swath of elevated showers and thunderstorms associated with the upper low forcing is lifting north and east from south central Kansas. These showers are progged to enter southern portions of the area in 1-2 hours with a weakening trend anticipated as updrafts encounter a cooler and more stable airmass. Rain showers may mix with snow for areas north of Interstate 70 as sfc temps fall into the low 30s. With morning temperatures starting in the low/mid 30s, a brief rain/snow mix may be possible before transitioning to rain. By mid-week, a broad mid-level ridge will become centered over the Rockies and gradually shift further toward the central CONUS.
Increasing cloud cover is expected today as the area of high pressure over the region begins to erode and a mid-level disturbance moves across the Southeast United States. On Tuesday, an area of low pressure will move across the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys with the associated front pushing across the southeastern states.
Look for dry weather conditions and slightly warmer temperatures for the start of the workweek.
Winds will be rather strong out of the west at 25-35 kts with gusts over 45 kts at times as the cold front is making its way through the region. /Issued 258 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018/ Upper level low over northwest Oklahoma will continue to move east away from the Panhandles today. A cold front is moving southward in its wake across the region.
Over AR, a cooler and moist airmass was seen, with temperatures and dew points mainly in the 50s, and with some fog being reported. Near the surface and upper lows, a low chance of scattered light showers and some elevated thunder may be seen, mainly over northern AR. Today Through Tuesday Night The SFC warm front remains south of the CWA early this Mon morning. but some strong winds may also be seen along the SRN edge of this line as the warm front to the south begins to lift north over time. the focus for convection will shift to the NRN/NERN sections of the state just ahead of the upper closed low. This area will be north of the SFC warm front. Behind the convection and SFC cold front. but the cooler temps expected will keep RH values elevated.
Current satellite observations are showing a few clouds over the area with a cloud shield associated with a low pressure system to the west over the pacific ocean. The higher resolution models are showing this as well, and have increased the precipitation chances over portions of the coastal range and the Umpqua divide for this afternoon. A closed upper level low will offshore at 130W will slowly fill and move onshore this evening bringing light showers late this afternoon as temperatures near normal. And, for northern California, the lower to mid 50s. " Showers will continue overnight into Tuesday as the upper low opens and an upper level trough moves through the area.
Latest CAMS and new NAM12 suggest upper trof approaches late this morning and afternoon, thus providing more emphasis to shove snow band east into the James valley. A vigorous upper level low pressure system currently over northern Oklahoma, along with a weak system over southern Alberta, will bring light precipitation to the region. Surface temps around freezing could limit the snowfall amounts. However a weak upper level trough will cross the region on Tuesday with additional light pcpn possible. The models show a weak short wave trough leaving the region to the east on Tuesday night with some residual chances of rain/snow for this time.
623 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018 A vigorous upper low will track east across southern Missouri today bringing widespread showers and some thunderstorms. Steep 500 MB height falls and cooling aloft will aid in the destabilization of the lower atmosphere. The more significant rainfall will end from the west as the day progresses but patchy light rain and drizzle will persist into tonight as we remain in a deep cyclonic flow in the wake of the passing upper low. Cooler temperatures will settle into the region for Tuesday while cloud cover persist in the wake of the exiting storm system. An upper ridge will build into the region by late week as low level warm air advection increases.
High temps this afternoon should reach the lower 80s north and 85-87 degrees across the srn counties.
522 AM MDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Conditions are favorable for some light freezing drizzle over northwestern parts of the area, including the northern Black Hills, so have updated the forecast to include that through this morning. Precipitation has transitioned to snow across most of the CWA, although there was some spotty freezing drizzle. Tuesday will see some warming at 850-mb, which should translate to slightly warmer weather than today (although still tempered by snow cover).
1010 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Cooler day with brisk northeast winds, especially near lake Michigan. Another round of small craft advisory conditions are expected late in the week with a strong low pressure system moving through the region.
924 AM MDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Sent an update this morning to adjust overnight low temperatures based on latest warmer observed temperatures and blended that into the forecast high temperatures for today. Additional light snow is expected tonight into Tuesday morning as a weak front and the remnants of the upper trof push through the state.