Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020 A large plume of low stratus continues to cover much of the forecast area, this led to many areas not getting below the freezing mark early this morning. However, a couple models would suggest sfc temps a degree or two colder through the afternoon in central KS which could result a transition to light freezing rain/ freezing drizzle sooner than currently forecast. As surface and low level temps continue to fall, thinking areas transition from mainly freezing rain to mainly snow as cloud ice is acquired. The GFS would keep much of the column near -10C which would increase snow growth potential, while the NAM is warmer (but no >0C nose).
145 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 Weak high pressure and a coastal trough will persist into the weekend. A weak cold front will drop through the area Sunday night, followed by high pressure. Under mostly clear skies temperatures are falling into the lower to mid 60s inland with some fog developing as per surface obs. Weak high pressure will persist to the east on Saturday.
The blanket of cloud cover will set the stage for a Saturday with below normal afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s.
1154 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020 Cold front slowly making progress eastward through the forecast area tonight.
Not a lot of thermodynamics (at least locally) with this system, with the models holding the low level warming/isentropic upglide well south. Cobb output via the NAM is more on the high end, suggesting 3 to 5 inches at RST over its past several runs. The upshot there would be a creep upward in temps - not necessarily seasonable, but warmer than it has been.
Current observation show a cold front stretching from the Great Lakes SSW across Ohio, western KY, and western TN. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 61 75 63 77 / 30 20 10 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 58 75 61 76 / 40 20 10 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 65 57 75 61 75 / 30 20 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 56 72 56 73 / 40 20 20 10 10.
This forcing is associated with an upper low dropping through the western U.
Easterly flow generally continues for the next few days with weak high pressure in place across the area and low pressure over the western Caribbean.
A ridge of high pressure will bring dry weather to the region today, but mostly cloudy skies should prevail. Highs will be in the lower 30s northwest, and middle to upper 30s southeast. The main forcing appears to be tied to an approaching upper level trough, coupled upper level jet streaks and bands of weak mid-level frontogenesis (mainly south). Highs should range from the lower 30s northwest to the middle to upper 30s southeast.
948 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 A weak cold front will bring a chance of showers to the area Sunday. Weak high pressure offshore and southerly flow across the region will bring another day of above normal temperatures in the low to mid 80s today with plenty of sunshine. The next round of weather moves in for Sunday as a cold front approaches bringing cooler weather closer to normal in the mid to upper 70s and chances for rain showers and rumbles of thunder Sunday afternoon.
530 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 A crossing cold front will maintain scattered showers early this morning. Higher chances for rain are expected with early week low pressure. Showers and drizzle should taper off this morning as a cold front completes its passage.
08Z surface analysis pLaces a cold front from Middle/East Tennessee back through Northern Alabama and into Central and Southern Mississippi. This low level moisture combined with northeast winds and cold air advection should result in cloudy skies. As a result, a much cooler day is expected with temperatures only rising slightly today in the 50s compared to temperatures 20-25 degrees warmer just yesterday afternoon. Models begin to indicate southwest mid-level flow beginning to develop across the Lower Mississippi Valley with mid-level moisture beginning to return late Sunday.
MVFR to VFR ceilings prevail this morning, with the lowest cigs (1500 - 2500 ft) at terminals along I-45. Tonight is shaping up to be cooler as light winds and mostly clear skies allow for optimal radiative cooling.
Higher chances for rain are expected with early week low pressure. Showers and drizzle should taper off this morning as a cold front completes its passage.
416 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020 High clouds are beginning to increase from the west as the next trough digs into the northern Rockies and zonal flow extends eastward from its base. The positively-tilted trough will aggressively dig down across the Plains Sunday.
652 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 High pressure centered over the upper Midwest will extend into the area today into tonight. A weak area of low pressure will pass southeast of the area on Sunday and Sunday night.
932 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 A strong cold front moved through the area last night, ushering in a dramatically cooler airmass. Temperatures today will be over 30 degrees cooler than yesterday. An area of high pressure will then move into the region with dry and much cooler weather lasting through the end of the weekend. Southeast of Lake Ontario, expect scattered light showers to last through midday across the higher terrain from Southern Erie and Wyoming counties southward. High pressure across eastern Canada will track east Sunday. Clouds will increase from the south by the afternoon as low pressure tracks along the southeast U.
705 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 Remaining wind gusts will ease this morning as pressure gradient slackens with building high pressure. Drier air will also work into the area with this high and lead to a trend to scattered cu/strato- cu today. Temps start out in mid-upper 30s today, or about 40F cooler than yesterday's pre-frontal afternoon airmass. A well established anticyclone anchored over Iowa and centered in the 700- 650 mb layer has efficiently dried out the mid-levels over SE MI with active subsidence stripping away at lingering moisture trapped near the top of an inversion roughly at 925 mb.
Look for heavier rain to develop along the higher terrain and southwest NC through the remainder of the day. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 62 74 62 76 / 40 30 20 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 59 73 61 75 / 40 20 20 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 67 59 72 61 74 / 20 10 20 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 58 72 55 74 / 30 20 40 10 10.
This pattern will result in a pleasant fall day across West Central Texas, with light winds and afternoon highs ranging from the mid and upper 60s across the Big Country, to the lower 70s elsewhere. Temperatures will be warmer, with overnight lows in the low to mid 50s.
Winds continue from the east and southeast as a ridge continues to erode over the Appalachians, while the broad area of low pressure remains south of Cuba.
426 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020 A cold front moved through the area overnight and continued to move south into the coastal waters this morning. winds were northerly with temperatures across southeast Texas in the lower 60s this morning. That is quite a change compared to yesterday at this time when temperatures were 9 to 16 degrees warmer. temperatures were in the low to mid 60s. Cooler weather is on tap for today with cloudy skies this morning and northerly winds. broad upper level troughing continues across the northern US today with high pressure settling across our area. This will result in surface pressures dropping across the Texas panhandle and a new cold front developing across the central plains on Sunday.
If this trend holds, the lakeshore will stay mostly clear through the early morning hours, while inland locations will remain cloudy Today and Tonight: A ridge of high pressure will arc across the plains states and into the western Great Lakes during the day today.
/NF/ Today and Tonight: A cold front associated with a low pressure system over the Great Lakes has been steadily moving southeast through our forecast area overnight and early this morning.
However, with cooler air aloft recent satellite trends show diurnal cumulus has begun to develop across areas that have cleared. If this trend holds, the lakeshore will stay mostly clear through the early morning hours, while inland locations will remain cloudy Today and Tonight: A ridge of high pressure will arc across the plains states and into the western Great Lakes during the day today.
Showers still holding on in the southeast part of the mid state with the cold front early this morning.
Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 30s, coldest inland. Low confidence in the forecast for Sunday night as models disagree with respect to how far northward precipitation chances from a low pressure system passing southeast of our CWA will extend. Have the highest pops closer to Lake Michigan, but kept them 30 percent or less.
cold front continues to drift south across the CWA this morning. Steady shield of precip early this morning over southern WA and northern OR will expand and drift south through the day, while transitioning from rain to snow in the lower elevations this morning behind the front.
555 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 A weak cold front will bring a chance of showers to the area Sunday. Weak high pressure offshore and southerly flow across the region will bring another day of above normal temperatures in the low to mid 80s today with plenty of sunshine. The next round of weather moves in for Sunday as a cold front approaches bringing cooler weather closer to normal in the mid to upper 70s and chances for rain showers and rumbles of thunder Sunday afternoon.
423 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020 Today and Tonight: A cold front associated with a low pressure system over the Great Lakes has been steadily moving southeast through our forecast area overnight and early this morning.
Rather robust short wave trough across the lower Mississippi Valley seen on water vapor moving northeast. Slow moving cold front extending from eastern Tennessee to central Alabama will move into the Carolina Mountains possibly NC Piedmont this afternoon and become nearly stationary. Southeast moisture flux increases during the evening as weak low pressure and short wave trough approach from GA. Guidance max temps could be a little low given yesterday but with increasing clouds should reach the low to mid 80s. Min temps tonight in the low to mid 60s.
716 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 A strong cold front will track across the region early this morning. An area of high pressure will move into the region and dry and much cooler weather is expected this weekend. Post-frontal showers will continue to track east as a cold front moves into New England this morning. High pressure across eastern Canada will track east Sunday. Clouds will increase from the south by the afternoon as low pressure tracks along the southeast U.
Today Through Sunday Night In the wake of yesterday's cold front, much cooler air and widespread cloud cover are in place and will persist through at least today.
625 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 A weak cold front will bring a chance of showers to the area Sunday. Weak high pressure offshore and southerly flow across the region will bring another day of above normal temperatures in the low to mid 80s today with plenty of sunshine. The next round of weather moves in for Sunday as a cold front approaches bringing cooler weather closer to normal in the mid to upper 70s and chances for rain showers and rumbles of thunder Sunday afternoon.
Snow starting to enter southwestern ND along a frontal boundary setting up ahead of a large upper level trough. Most of the higher accumulations still look to come in the southwest and south central where Winter Weather Advisories remain for 4 to 7 inches of snow.
Today's forecast high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s under partly cloudy skies, with an overnight low in the low 70s except for mid 70s along coastal Martin and St.
622 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020 A large plume of low stratus continues to cover much of the forecast area, this led to many areas not getting below the freezing mark early this morning. However, a couple models would suggest sfc temps a degree or two colder through the afternoon in central KS which could result a transition to light freezing rain/ freezing drizzle sooner than currently forecast. As surface and low level temps continue to fall, thinking areas transition from mainly freezing rain to mainly snow as cloud ice is acquired. The GFS would keep much of the column near -10C which would increase snow growth potential, while the NAM is warmer (but no >0C nose).
A good overrunning setup still seen across the CWA ahead of an upper trough that will dig southward over the western CONUS through Sunday. Best areas for the heavier snow look to be the mtns as well as possibly the Pine Ridge area, though the snow may taper off quicker there. The snow will taper off from north to south late Sunday as the upper trough digs farther sw and dynamics move south into Colorado.
Not a lot of thermodynamics (at least locally) with this system, with the models holding the low level warming/isentropic upglide well south. Cobb output via the NAM is more on the high end, suggesting 3 to 5 inches at RST over its past several runs. The upshot there would be a creep upward in temps - not necessarily seasonable, but warmer than it has been. Conditions deteriorate late tonight/early Sunday morning as snow moves in from the west ahead of low pressure area.
Windy and cooler weather is forecast through Sunday a cold front approaches Arizona.
332 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020 What a difference 24 hours makes? Temperatures are running nearly 35 degrees cooler across the area, in the wake of a cold front. The latest AMDAR soundings show a pronounced elevated inversion across the region, which will keep this low level moisture locked in through at least tomorrow.
In its wake, broad large-scale ascent ahead of another approaching trough and mid-level frontogenesis is supporting widespread light snow this afternoon. Additionally, strong frontogenesis, especially along and south of the SD/NE border will drive areas of heavier snow late tonight into the overnight hours as this upper trough pivots through the region.
446 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 A cold front will sweep well offshore by evening on a gusty westerly wind. High pressure follows the front for tonight and Sunday with cooler temperatures and fair weather.
357 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 High pressure will prevail today before an upper disturbance passes through tonight. A weak cold front will then move through Sunday night, followed by high pressure. High temperatures are expected to range from the upper 70s across the SC Lowcountry to the low to mid 80s across SE GA.
256 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 High pressure in place to the NE and an area of low pressure over the western Caribbean is keeping easterly flow in place across the area.
211 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2020 AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Trough of cold air runs from northern Montana up into the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Farther west a large warm pacific ridge is butting up against the trough over the Pac NW coast. This is constantly pressing on the cold trough to move out. Sunday and Sunday night: Ridge to the West will topple over the front Range over Northern British Columbia and ALberta forming a chinook to the far northeast. The ridge should kick out the cold core trough aloft and start shallowing out the surface cold with a massive inversion forming.
Into Sunday, a positively tilted upper trough amplifies over the Intermountain West. Our surface and low level winds will shift from the east/southeast to more of a northeasterly direction as low pressure in Colorado dives southward into Texas ahead of the upper wave.
This will result in warmer temperatures on Sunday, with highs forecast in the low to mid 80s for most areas.
352 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 A weak low pressure system will bring a chance of showers to the area Sunday.
335 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 As expected surface cold front has essentially washed out.
347 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 A cold front will stall south of the Commonwealth tonight. On Sunday, an area of low pressure track northward along the front, bringing light rain to parts of the state.
Have updated temperatures to reflect a slightly cooler trend and may have to lower high temperatures a bit for much of the area. /EC/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: A cold front associated with a low pressure system over the Great Lakes has been steadily moving southeast through our forecast area overnight and early this morning.
243 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020 Over the next 5 days, two upper level systems and an arctic high pressure system will be the major players in our forecast. The major trough will amplify over the Rockies in positively tilted fashion and this will allow for a strong surge of arctic air in in the lee of the Rockies.
Windy and cooler weather is forecast through Sunday as a cold front approaches Arizona.
A cold front will move into the Carolina Mountains and stall. Above normal temperatures with highs in the low to mid 80s are expected. A weak upper level trough will move away from The Midlands and CSRA on Sunday with a decreasing chance of showers and thunderstorms as the day progresses. It will be cooler than recent days with highs in the mid to upper 70s. High pressure aloft rebuilds across the Southeast U.
No other updates planned as high pressure as high pressure will settle over the region. /issued 426 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020/ A cold front moved through the area overnight and continued to move south into the coastal waters this morning. winds were northerly with temperatures across southeast Texas in the lower 60s this morning. That is quite a change compared to yesterday at this time when temperatures were 9 to 16 degrees warmer. temperatures were in the low to mid 60s. Cooler weather is on tap for today with cloudy skies this morning and northerly winds. broad upper level troughing continues across the northern US today with high pressure settling across our area. This will result in surface pressures dropping across the Texas panhandle and a new cold front developing across the central plains on Sunday.
328 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 Dry and cooler conditions will continues across the area through Sunday.
The temperature forecast tonight through Sunday night also leans on the deterministic short term model blend which is cooler during the day and warmer by night than the guidance blend. If this occurs, the lows near zero in place across that area could easily be 5 or 10 degrees too warm.
A cold front moved through the area leaving behind a lot of low level moisture.
Cold front has progressed to near the I-65 corridor. Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows substantial darkening/drying on the western side of the mid-level trof axis. Surface Based (SB) Cape has risen with 500 to 1500 J/KG nosing northward from the MS Sound up across the Lower Tombigbee River Delta. Sunday's highs range in the lower 70s northwest zones.
While these will wane with the loss in daytime heating this evening, low level flow will veer to the east during the night as expansive high pressure extends across the northern lakes. In light of how cold the low level airmass is and with sfc dewpoints down into the low 30s, nighttime cooling will still support mins well down into the 30s despite some uncertainty in cloud trends.
1216 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020 High clouds are beginning to increase from the west as the next trough digs into the northern Rockies and zonal flow extends eastward from its base. The positively-tilted trough will aggressively dig down across the Plains Sunday.
Low level flow will gradually become easterly and southeasterly this afternoon in response to falling pressure in the High Plains.
Cooler temperature will remain. As such, lows will drop into the 30s tonight with near freezing temperature north of I-80.
water vapor satellite imagery, heights, WSR-88D radar, and observations showed a broad mid-level trough across the northern third to half of the U.
Low level flow will gradually become easterly and southeasterly this afternoon in response to falling pressure in the High Plains. Warmer temperatures expected tomorrow as surface features sharpen ahead of the next approaching upper trough. Strong cold front still on track to move through late tomorrow and tomorrow night. Rain chances will increase Sunday night as better upper support from the approaching trough arrives.
The slow moistening of the lower levels of the atmosphere has meant that it just started snowing at ABR shortly before 1930Z. The highest snow amounts will be over our western-southwestern counties, where storm total snow of 4-7 inches are expected. Expect highs only in the low 20s Sunday, and into the single digits above zero Sunday night.
High pressure will further settle over the area tonight. Sunday will be a warmer day as winds shift southeasterly.
309 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 A cold front will stall south of the Commonwealth tonight. On Sunday, an area of low pressure track northward along the front, bringing light rain to parts of the state.
1211 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 A weak cold front will bring a chance of showers to the area Sunday. Weak high pressure offshore and southerly flow across the region will bring another day of above normal temperatures in the low to mid 80s today with plenty of sunshine. The next round of weather moves in for Sunday as a cold front approaches bringing cooler weather closer to normal in the mid to upper 70s and chances for rain showers and rumbles of thunder Sunday afternoon.
Overnight, ridging moves to our east and shifts the winds more southerly, bringing in moisture up to about 850mb with clearing skies.
Look for heavier rain to develop along the higher terrain and southwest NC through the remainder of the day. AC Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 74 62 76 61 / 30 20 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 73 61 75 59 / 20 20 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 59 72 61 74 59 / 10 20 20 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 72 55 74 56 / 20 40 10 10 10.
On the synoptic scale, upper level negatively tilted trough currently to our west will cross the region tonight and Sunday, shifting snow to our south. Expect overnight lows into the lower single digits across the west and low teens east. Highs will only be in the upper teens to the low 20s. After the current upper level trough passes, the Northern Plains remains in northwest flow into midweek.
A deep mid/upper level low pressure system will drop south into the Four Corners region on Mon/Tue time frame, forcing flow leading into our area to become more swly with time.
223 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 A cold front will sweep well offshore by evening on a gusty westerly wind. High pressure follows the front for tonight and Sunday with cooler temperatures and fair weather.
An additional 2 to 3 inches could accumulate with this band, with the higher amounts closer to the southern border of our CWA.
Cold front continues to trek through the area, moving faster than originally anticipated. Improving conditions by this afternoon as the cold front slides out of the region.
1238 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020 A large plume of low stratus continues to cover much of the forecast area, this led to many areas not getting below the freezing mark early this morning. However, a couple models would suggest sfc temps a degree or two colder through the afternoon in central KS which could result a transition to light freezing rain/ freezing drizzle sooner than currently forecast. As surface and low level temps continue to fall, thinking areas transition from mainly freezing rain to mainly snow as cloud ice is acquired. The GFS would keep much of the column near -10C which would increase snow growth potential, while the NAM is warmer (but no >0C nose).
Very cold overnight temperatures are also expected with most of western Montana to have low temperatures in the low single digits to around negative 10, and widespread single digit lows in central Idaho.
Cooler temperature will continue. As such, lows will drop into the 30s overnight with near-freezing temperature north of I-80.