Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
432 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016 QUICK UPDATE TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH 01 UTC OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL ND BASED ON THE LOW-TOPPED/WEAK CONVECTION OBSERVED ON RADAR FROM NEAR CENTER EAST TOWARD WILTON AND TUTTLE AS OF 2230 UTC. THIS STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER FROM LINTON EAST THOUGH OAKES AND NORTH INTO JAMESTOWN. ADDED AREAS OF FOG HERE AND KEPT IT THROUGH THE EVENING UNTIL THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. WHILE EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 30S MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND VERY STRONG JET OVER THE S ROCKIES.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS WEEK.
553 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016 A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD WILL STALL NEAR THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.
Dry weather will continue through the work week as ridge of high pressure builds.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETURN TO THE WEST COAST STATES TUESDAY.
EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO EXIST UNTIL TROUGH WORKS THROUGH IN THE 09-15Z TIME FRAME.
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM THIS AFTERNOON SHOW A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS COLDER AIR MOVES OVERHEAD WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ROAD SFC TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING AT THE MOMENT. SO WE COULD BE LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE ISSUES DUE TO INITIALLY MELTING SNOW REFREEZING ON ROADWAYS THIS EVENING. WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAREST THE COLORADO BORDER. LESS CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY PRECLUDE ADVISORY ISSUANCE. THE REST OF TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOLER IN THE POST-TROUGH ENVIRONMENT.
431 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016 NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NM FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING E AND DEEPEN RAPIDLY DURING TUESDAY. /ISSUED 242 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016/ PATCHY LGT RAIN OVER NORTH LA DIMINISHING AS COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS AREA. DEEP UPPER LOW MOVG INTO DESERT SW SHOWING SIGNS OF ARRIVING SLIGHTLY SLOWER. POSITION OF WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH IN ASSOC WITH THIS LOW WILL DICTATE NWD POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. SATURATED DEEP MOIST LAYERS AND STG UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL HOWEVER BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE TO OVER THREE INCHES POSSIBLE ON BOTH SIDES OF THIS BOUNDARY. WITH HIGHEST TOTALS ACTUALLY POSSIBLE NORTH OF WARM FRONT WITH EMBEDDED ELEVATED TSTMS.
327 PM PST MON FEB 22 2016 High pressure will deliver dry conditions through the rest of the work week.
1034 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016 A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD WILL STALL NEAR THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.
As the storm system gains strength over the lower Mississippi Valley, we should see lowering and thickening clouds.
THE RAINS COME IN EARNEST TOMORROW AS A POTENT COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL STICK AROUND FOR MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW UNTIL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPS THE LOW CLOUDS OUT.
WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS ARE COMING TO AN END WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT ALONG WITH BELOW FREEZING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS BEGINNING TO NUDGE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES CONTINUE AROUND THIS TROUGH. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST. A RIDGE AXIS BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE MORNING AND COULD SEE THE PARTIAL CLEARING CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI.
THIS WILL SQUASH SNOW SHOWER CHANCES TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. AFTER THAT THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WARM AND DRY AS THE WEST COAST RIDGE BECOMES WILL ENTRENCHED. THE RIDGE REMAINS THE MAIN PLAYER THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE 12Z GFS HAS A COLDER SOLUTION WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA AS A TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE HUDSONS BAY LOW. ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THESE SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED AND PRIMARILY UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
558 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016 A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY AS WELL. WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
740 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDLANDS TUESDAY. THE WEDGE WILL WEAKEN TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.
SO CONTINUED TO BLEND UP A RATHER SMALL STRIPE OF SLT CHANCE POPS AGAINST BORDERING CWA'S FOR THIS HIGHLIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREAS TRAVEL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND VERY STRONG JET OVER THE S ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ON THE LOWER DESERTS FALLING INTO THE 70S.
230 PM PST MON FEB 22 2016 DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE PATTERN.
314 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WILL ENSURE DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND SUNDAY.
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS STILL HAS HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS PROVIDED SUCH PLEASANT WEATHER OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS CENTERED OVER THE REGION. ONGOING MCS IN THE MID MS VALLEY THAT DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW TAKING A SOUTHERLY DIVE DOWN THE EASTERN EDGE OF THICKNESS RIDGE THROUGH IOWA AND TOWARD MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. FRONTAL WAVE FORMING ALONG BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXPECTED TO BE FOCUS FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TONIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY ENTERING NW GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP LARGE SCALE FORCING AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP NORTH OF OUR AREA.
325 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PUSH SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH STRETCHES BACK ACROSS THE REGION WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST COAST TODAY. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. WILL PULL WARMER AIR UP INTO THE REGION.
TYPICAL AFTERNOON ZEPHYR BREEZES EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. STRONGER WIND GUSTS NEAR 30-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY NIGHT. DID SLOW THE TIMING OF THE WINDS A BIT AS THE PERIOD OF HIGHER GUSTS IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH THE AXIS OF THE HIGHEST 700MB WINDS. DID ADD A MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY NEAR THE OREGON BORDER AS THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
320 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS WITH ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND WEAK WAVES CIRCULATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE UPPER HIGH AIDED IN SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WE'VE BEEN ACCUSTOMED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE WITH A CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE FLANKED BY TROUGHS TO THE WEST AND EAST.
THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A LARGE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS.
331 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BRING AN ONSHORE WIND AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS THE LOW MOVES INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON.
403 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015 UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TODAY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH KEEPING RATHER MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE MONSOONAL PLUME COMBINES WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
450 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH.
A DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND. BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP SHOWERY AND COOL WEATHER OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
359 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015 DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINAS TO FLORIDA. A FAIRLY SHARP 500 MB RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
/ISSUED 354 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015/ STOUT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUILD E TO THE MS RIVER OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. 850MB RIDGING OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON HAS RESULTED IN A NULL CU FIELD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. RIDGING OVERHEAD SHOULD RESULT IN MAX TEMPS ONCE AGAIN NEARING/REACHING THE CENTURY MARK SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AS THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR SPREADS FARTHER W.
203 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THEN MOVE EAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY IN THE WORKWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL THEN BRING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS BY MID WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATER TONIGHT AND ONLY SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE SUNDAY WILL MAINTAIN COOLER TEMPS AT THE LAKE.
CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE THAN ANTICIPATED AND THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S THUS FAR BUT WE SHOULD SEE THESE RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNSET. THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL REMAIN QUIET AS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S TO THE UPPER 70S WITH THE HIGHER READINGS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE RIO GRANDE. TOMORROW SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY AS 850 TEMPS INCREASE AND MOISTURE SLIGHTLY DECREASES. ANOTHER NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.
An upper level ridge was centered across the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles this afternoon. Temperatures will again be very warm on Saturday, with highs in the low to mid 90s over central and southern Missouri, and the mid to upper 90s over western Missouri and southeastern Kansas.
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP SWD FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. MUCH DRIER AIR IS FILTER IN MID LEVELS OVER GA AND CAROLINAS ON THE BACK SIDE OF TROUGH. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ASSOCD FRONT/TROUGH LOCATED FROM THE WRN ATLC TO COASTAL SE GA THEN INTO SW GA AND CENTRAL AL. MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S TO NEAR 90 MOST LOCATIONS WITH HEAT INDICES NOT AS HIGH AS PRIOR DAYS. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S TONIGHT. RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MS RIVER VALLEY WITH WEAK TROUGHING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
134 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EXTENDS INTO CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON CU WILL LIKELY BE MORE PREVALENT OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT IN A RIDGE OF HIGHER LOW-LEVEL THETA E.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD INTENSIFY AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS AS THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME BRIEFLY STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST.
345 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015 HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA.
BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD INCREASE A BIT TODAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BUILDS INTO THE AREA DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EASTWARD. MODELS HAVE REMAINED PRETTY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
321 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 A COOL AND CLEAR NIGHT WAS FELT ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. GIVEN THE LOWER DEW POINTS COMPARED TO THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES. WE WILL BE ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN WEAK NW FLOW. A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN NW FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO KY ON SUNDAY.
148 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BECOMES BETTER DEFINED AT THE LOW AND MID LEVELS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
339 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
258 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2015 Summertime high pressure over the nation's mid section has temperatures sizzling across the Ozarks.
/ISSUED 222 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015/ Subtropical ridge is centered across the S Plains today resulting in a se-e mid level component which pushes the mid level theta-e ridge axis farther w.
THE RIDGE WILL BUILD FURTHER EAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES LOOK CONFINED TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR NEAR THE BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE REGION.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL BEGIN TO CARVE A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U. ALLOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO SURGE BACK NORTHWARD OVER OUR CWA WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE STILL CENTERED NEAR THE TEXAS-OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION. THE BASIC PATTERN STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA AND LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE PACNW AND BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST.
SURFACE MAP SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERING MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH A RELATIVELY DRY, SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR MASS IN PLACE.
GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN SIMILAR THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH RESPECT TO IMPACTS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA AS REGION REMAINS UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE. AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. RIDGE RETREATS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE.
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR 54N 130W. SW FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW WAS BRINGING RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR INTO THE AREA. AS THIS LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY SE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL ACT TO SHARPEN AND ACCELERATE THE UPPER LOW SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL BE CENTERED NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF SEATTLE. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL ENTER BAKER COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN.
THE TUTT LOW WILL MOVE WEST TO NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THEN TEMPERATURES AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS REGION.
1242 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015 UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER NORTHERN WI THIS EVENING AS AN AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST INTO THE HIGHWAY 53 CORRIDOR. AT MID AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT WAS FROM ABOUT INL TO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MN. WITH A FREEZING LEVEL OF OVR 14,000 FT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH FOR HAIL. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE OUT OF NWRN WI LATER THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY BRINGING DRY AND WARM WEATHER.
THE RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE CNTRL USA THIS MONTH WILL SHIFT INTO THE WRN USA WITH A TROF OVER THE E. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THRU TUE AND THEN TURN A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL WED-FRI. MAINTAINED BY THE LOW-LVL HET. WED: THE COOLER AIR MASS COULD COMBINE WITH SUBSTANTIAL MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN.
321 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.
MORE THAN LIKELY THIS IS FOG FROM THE VALLEYS WHICH WITH A SLIGHT WIND IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A COOL AND CLEAR NIGHT WAS FELT ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. GIVEN THE LOWER DEW POINTS COMPARED TO THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES. WE WILL BE ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN WEAK NW FLOW. A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN NW FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO KY ON SUNDAY.
258 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015 SURFACE COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING STRETCHES FROM NEAR GREEN BAY WI TO OLWEIN IA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID CONDITIONS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
151 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE, WILL KEEP MOST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA, PLEASANT AND DRY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES INDICATED MIDLEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. A SHORT- WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS NRN WY. LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ALSO WAS STRONG OVER WRN SD AND THUS EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST.
High pressure remains in control of our weather this evening. Late evening temperatures were in the mid to upper 70s though the urban centers were still in the lower 80s.
ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE SHORT TERM TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS.
A RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS WRN ND AND SD WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE OVER OUR AREA AS LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR CURRENTLY AROUND 40 KTS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS ND. ALSO ADDED LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST AS HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME WEAK STORMS RIDING OVER THE RIDGE AND CROSS LAKE OF THE WOODS.
330 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2015 (Today and Tonight) Hot and dry continues to prevail across West Central Texas, with the upper high centered just to the west. Models allow 850mb temperatures to climb slightly today, so afternoon highs just a little warmer than yesterday seems reasonable. Lows tonight in the low to mid 70s.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS AND DOMINATING MOST OF THE COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GULF WITH WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA. THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U. THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST COAST. THE HIGHEST READINGS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
220 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING OUT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SUNDAY STILL LOOKS TO HAVE A WASHED-OUT WARM FRONT JUST WEST/SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND WILL PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
A somewhat drier airmass will filter in behind the boundary in the low levels. However, models show significant drying above 700mb as deep layer ridging noses in from the west. Temps will be in the lower to mid 90s.
A 595 DECAMETER UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO/TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS REGION THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS(ALTHOUGH STILL LOW-GRADE) SHOULD BE NOTED OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO A POSSIBILITY.
AN UNUSUAL LATE JULY COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT.
VERY REFRESHING LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST. AND DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE ENE THROUGH THIS LAYER. FAIRLY IN LINE WITH THE TRENDS OF VARIOUS STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WHICH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. -GIH AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.
607 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.
1104 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015 WV IMAGERY SHOWING LOWER AMPLITUDE TROF RIDGE TROF PATTERN FROM W TO E ACROSS THE CONUS. SFC HAS WEAK HIGH P OVR WRN WY WITH WEAK LOW P EAST AND A WEAK TROF/FRONT DRAPED FROM N TO S OVR ERN WY.
335 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE MOVES ENOUGH TO BRING MORE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WHICH WILL SHIFT THE MOISTURE PLUME TO THE EAST AND BRING IN A DRYER AIRMASS FOR SATURDAY.
700 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
643 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PUSH SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH STRETCHES BACK ACROSS THE REGION WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST COAST TODAY. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. WILL PULL WARMER AIR UP INTO THE REGION.
STILL NO OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD COURTESY OF DOMINANT 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LONE STAR STATE AND EXTENDED OVER THE BRO CWFA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SWING SOUTHEAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN DEEPEN AS IT DIGS SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN U. THUS WILL SEE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH TODAY WILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY.
133 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
320 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 WV IMAGERY RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED ZONAL FLOW FROM THE PAC NW TO THE GREAT LAKES ATOP A RIDGE OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. CLEARING WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S OVER THE WEST WITH MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 500- 1000 J/KG RANGE OVER THE FAR WEST. A SHRTWV OVER NRN MN ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT INTO NE MN SUPPORTED SCT SHRA WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. WITH THE COLD FRONT AND SHRTWV EDGING INTO UPPER MI DURING PEAK HEATING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. SUNSHINE AND MIXING WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 16C SUPPORT MAX READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND AND FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
1255 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT AS ACTIVITY ROTATING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL RIDE OVER TOP THE FRONT. SIDED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.