Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Lake enhanced diurnal cu field is beginning to erode over southwest Lower Michigan in response to building high pressure. Although NW to NNW flow will persist through tonight, 1032mb high pressure becoming centered over southern Lower combined with the loss of a diurnal heating component will limit overnight clouds to nothing more than a few stray filaments supported by Superior-Michigan. Diminishing wind, particularly over the SW half of the CWA will allow for favorable diurnal cooling into the low 30s. Further east and north, increased cloud potential and a stronger gradient further from the center of the high may keep temps slightly elevated, but still in the 30s. Diurnal cu-up by Tuesday will be substantially reduced with low- level high pressure firmly in place.
1247 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 A dry cold front will sweep south across the area tonight.
High pressure will strengthen across the Great Basin through mid week. This ridging will spread into the Great Basin later tonight thru Tue and will limit the srn extent of the influence of the upstream ejecting wave. The ridge shifts east Thu but the airmass stays mild and developing south winds will bring better mixing keeping surface temps warm.
the short term remains quiet and relatively benign as strong ridging dominates the region. While resultant temps look cooler than today. given the dry antecedent conditions have gone slightly warmer than model blend for highs and cooler for lows to widen the diurnal spectrum and radiational contribution. While the warmer overnight lows may be east central GA Tuesday AM.
An upper low off the Pac NW coast was advecting moisture and energy through the southwest flow and over the Northern Rockies.
1032 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 A dry cold front will move through from the north overnight followed by high pressure through mid week.
Guidance differs greatly on the track of the low for being just 24 hours out. The track of the low will greatly affect chances for thunder later in the short term.
537 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016 High clouds streaming across the CWA in southwesterly upper flow ahead of a large upper trof off the west coast. Any snow will be confined to the highest mtn tops with lack of any real cold air.
724 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 A dry cold front will sweep south across the area tonight.
1044 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 A cold front will move through the forecast area tonight with a reinforcing shot of cool air through Midweek. The cold front in the north part of the forecast area at 1000 pm will push south of the area around 200 am. A broad upper ridge will build over the Southeast. High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north at the surface. Slightly below normal high temperatures are forecast, in the lower to middle 70s. An upper-ridge over the center of the country will promote northwesterly flow aloft over the southeastern states through midweek.
932 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 High pressure will keep dry weather over the region tonight through Tuesday night.
848 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 A cold front will move through the forecast area tonight with a reinforcing shot of cool air through Midweek. A cold front will move south and through the region during the 02z-06z time frame. A broad upper ridge will build over the Southeast. High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north at the surface. Slightly below normal high temperatures are forecast, in the lower to middle 70s. An upper-ridge over the center of the country will promote northwesterly flow aloft over the southeastern states through midweek.
Have retained slgt chc pops across the eastern OK Panhandle and extreme northeast Texas Panhandle Tuesday evening as there may be just enough lift in close proximity of sfc trof to cause an isold tstm or two to form in that area before heading into OK and KS. Otherwise, no pops through next Monday as an upper level ridge of high pressure will generally dominate the weather across our fcst area. There will be a couple dry cold frontal passages durg this 7 day period.
1257 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 A cold front will move through the region tonight, followed by high pressure into the middle of the week. A weakening cold front should approach late in the week followed by more high pressure for the weekend. The cold front is just north of the forecast area early this morning and is on target to push south through sunrise. Tuesday: Dry/cooler high pressure will build over the Southeast behind a cold front departing offshore. Aloft, the axis of a longwave trough will begin shifting off the Eastern Seaboard, further supporting cold air advection over the Southeast throughout the day. Overall, high temps will be cooler than previous days with afternoon highs peaking in the low/mid 70s in Southeast South Carolina and mid/upper in Southeast Georgia.
Mid-level ridge axis should slowly translate across the Great Plains tonight, with a northwest flow regime overhead this evening.
1223 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 A cold front will move through the forecast area tonight with a reinforcing shot of cool air through Midweek. The cold front was pushing into the central Midlands at midnight and will move south of the CSRA around 200 am. A broad upper ridge will build over the Southeast. High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north at the surface. Slightly below normal high temperatures are forecast, in the lower to middle 70s. An upper-ridge over the center of the country will promote northwesterly flow aloft over the southeastern states through midweek.
627 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016 Latest water vapor imagery in addition to 12z upper air analysis shows a weak ridge axis moving across the High Plains this afternoon. A warm front is forecast to extend southeast into western Missouri with near 60 degree dewpoints in the warm sector. Upper ridging will build east toward the area by late in the work week with temperatures returning to above normal.
/ISSUED 334 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016/ Mid afternoon temperatures across Southeast Texas under partly cloudy skies range from the lower to mid 80s inland to around 80 at the coast. Still looking for mainly partly cloudy skies over the next several days with low temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s well inland to the lower 70s at the coast and high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. Mid/upper level ridging then builds across the state from the west and southwest toward the middle to end of the week and on into the weekend. This feature will keep a majority of Southeast Texas on the dry side with steadily warming and unseasonably warm temperatures (lows in the lower to mid 60s and highs in the mid to upper 80s.
A weak cold front is pushing through Middle Tennessee. Dewpoints have dropped into the lower 40s across the northern counties while dewpoints are still in the lower to mid 50s across southern Middle Tennessee. High pressure will build in tonight and Tuesday. Another beautiful day on tap for Tuesday with plenty of sunshine, light east winds and just slightly cooler temps.
The 00z BRO sounding shows plenty of dry air at the lower and mid levels of the atms which is resulting in VFR conditions this evening for all three RGV airports. A fairly dry and stable 500 mb ridge will persist over the region over the next 24 hours which will maintain VFR conditions. The ridge aloft continues to keep drier air in place generally from about 6000 feet upwards, which is capping off any significant vertical development to the CU field trapped underneath.
Expect scattered showers and thundertorms to move from west to east tonight as low pressure moves through the northern Great Basin. Dry and warmer conditions will develop on Tuesday and continue for the next several days. As high pressure develops from Tuesday afternoon and the following few days, dry conditions with well above normal daytime temperatures will again dominate the weather across the Grand Canyon State.
1051 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016 Latest water vapor imagery in addition to 12z upper air analysis shows a weak ridge axis moving across the High Plains this afternoon. A warm front is forecast to extend southeast into western Missouri with near 60 degree dewpoints in the warm sector. Upper ridging will build east toward the area by late in the work week with temperatures returning to above normal.
This will maintain the dry conditions with warmer temps as upper heights increase.
1144 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016 High pressure will continue for the rest of day with the development of a trough in the lee of the Rockies on Tuesday.
846 PM PDT Mon Oct 24 2016 The low pressure system responsible for the scattered showers and thunderstorms is moving east tonight.
High pressure still remains over the Southeastern United States holding our winds to a Northeast to East pattern. On this date in Keys weather history, in 1923, the low temperature in Key West dipped to 64 degrees.
A warm front will continue to lift northward through the overnight hours. The net result is a warmer night with mins in the lows 50s northwest to upper 50s southeast. SREF probabilities are the highest across northwest Kansas. Otherwise, for the rest of tomorrow, we will see warmer highs with the continued warm air advection. Highs should peak in the lower 80s.
A weak and cloud free cold front was sagging southwest from the MO bootheel through southern TN to near CHA. Ridge tops may experience winds of 5-10 mph most of tonight. Temperatures should drop into the lower to middle 40s in valley, and remain a bit warmer over and adjacent to area lakes and on ridge tops. We will go closer to the warmer NAM values in the l-m80s. So going with lows slightly above guidance in the west, but going a bit cooler than guidance in our typical drainage cooling valleys in our east.
but drier low level air from the lower MS Valley will begin to advect back W thus limiting cu development over Scntrl AR/N LA like what was observed this afternoon. Nw flow trough passing north of area will bring a few showers to far northern cwa on Wed, although moisture will be meager, a rumble or two of thunder is possible. Extended these isold pops a little further south into extreme north central LA Wed eve as trough digs a little on backside of broad upper low movg across great lakes. Upper ridge reestablishes and continues thru the weekend and beyond.
Then with mostly sunny skies expected Tuesday afternoon, highs will top out in the low and middle 80s.
Given the low temp/dewpoint depressions and light winds.
633 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016 An upper level ridge continues to provide nice weather across North and Central Texas this evening.
716 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 High pressure surface and aloft.
The upper ridge axis has drifted east somewhat, which has allowed the southwest flow aloft to channel more mid-to-high clouds over Northeast Montana. The closed low off of the Pacific Northwest is sending southwest flow aloft over the region, sending the upper ridge further downstream. Tuesday will offer drier weather but another weak upper level impulse will move across southern Montana and northern Wyoming ahead of the Pacific trough, with an additional shower possible over the western zones.
649 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016 High pressure over the Northland will result in another night of mostly clear skies and light wind speeds, so it will be another cold night. There be enough relatively humidity amidst the strong radiational cooling later tonight, and light enough wind speeds, to result in patchy fog for the lower-lying areas of northwest Wisconsin and the Arrowhead and Iron Range. Otherwise, easterly flow will develop overnight with the passing high pressure, and the flow will pick up in speed during the day Tuesday. Strong east to northeast flow will develop over western Lake Superior during the afternoon and going into the evening, in response to the approaching low pressure, and that wind will translate to the Twin Ports area. This area of low pressure will be bringing our next round of rain.
One of the rain bands spiraling around the low is moving through Western Washington this evening, bringing rainfall amounts mostly ranging from a few hundredths of an inch to around a quarter inch.
Will see little change in the weather pattern through the next 24 hours as high pressure remains in control.
A relatively mild overnight is expected with lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s with continued southeasterly flow beneath mid to upper level cloud cover ahead of low pressure across central Montana into eastern Wyoming.
A weakening cold front is moving through central and north central Oregon bringing scattered showers to central Oregon and the Lower Columbia Basin of Oregon and Washington and numerous showers to north central Oregon. Brief wind gusts to around 45 mph are possible in the heavier showers ahead of the cold front until around 2-3 AM.
718 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 A dry cold front will move through tonight followed by high pressure through the middle part of the week.
1031 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 A dry cold front will sweep south across the area tonight.
1036 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 A cold front will move through the forecast area tonight with a reinforcing shot of cool air through Midweek. The cold front in the north part of the forecast area at 1000 pm will push south of the area around 200 am. A broad upper ridge will build over the Southeast. High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north at the surface. Slightly below normal high temperatures are forecast, in the lower to middle 70s. An upper-ridge over the center of the country will promote northwesterly flow aloft over the southeastern states through midweek.
641 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016 High pressure will continue for the rest of day with the development of a trough in the lee of the Rockies on Tuesday.
837 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016 A weak cold front is draped across the area from west to east just south of the AL/TN border. These winds will help to advect some drier and slightly cooler air into the region. With clear skies forecast tonight, expecting slightly better radiational cooling and nudged temps down a degree or two in the cooler locations of the area. Lows overnight will be in the low to mid 40s with a few locations in our TN counties dipping below the 40 degree mark. We will go closer to the warmer NAM values in the l-m80s. So going with lows slightly above guidance in the west, but going a bit cooler than guidance in our typical drainage cooling valleys in our east.
30 /ISSUED 633 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016/ An upper level ridge continues to provide nice weather across North and Central Texas this evening.
750 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 High pressure through mid week.
838 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016 The cold front has moved through much of the CWA as of this evening. Expect high temperatures ranging from the low/mid 70s north of I-40 to the upper 70s and lower 80s farther south.
High pressure extends across the southeastern states and into the Florida peninsula.
/issued 838 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016/ The cold front has moved through much of the CWA as of this evening. Expect high temperatures ranging from the low/mid 70s north of I-40 to the upper 70s and lower 80s farther south.
19z sfc analysis shows a dry and mostly cloud free cold front settling through eastern parts of the state. The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term as they all depict a broad trough lifting northeast and out of the area.
The 12Z U/A H5 hand analysis is verifying the deep trough that models have been advertising off the NOAM left coast. Temperatures will be cooler behind the trough by some 7 to 12 degrees but still ending up above normal. Dry and warm conditions move back in for the mid week period as the ridge rebounds back over the Intermountain West to the Canadian Rockies.
746 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 A trough of low pressure will progress Southeast across the region Overnight, with high cloud cover continuing to move Southeast over the area. High pressure will build to the North behind this feature.
642 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016 Quiet weather is expected overnight as surface ridging continues to depart. Convection will develop as forcing increases by late afternoon in the west ahead of the low and also in the north near the baroclinic zone.
1002 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 A cold front will move through the forecast area tonight with a reinforcing shot of cool air through Midweek. The cold front in the north part of the forecast area at 1000 pm will push south of the area around 200 am. A broad upper ridge will build over the Southeast. High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north at the surface. Slightly below normal high temperatures are forecast, in the lower to middle 70s. An upper-ridge over the center of the country will promote northwesterly flow aloft over the southeastern states through midweek.
An upper level trough over the Mid-Atlantic region will move offshore tonight, with a ridge starting to build over the southeastern CONUS. At the surface, a weak cold front will slide southward across our area tonight, but with ample dry air in place no precipitation is expected. With scattered high clouds in place, radiational cooling will be less efficient than the last few nights, so low temperatures should be several degrees warmer across our area. Expect lows in the lower 50s inland, and mid 50s to near 60 along the Gulf Coast.
Will see little change in the weather pattern through the night as high pressure remains in control. Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 77 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 44 73 45 74 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 45 74 45 74 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 38 69 38 71 / 0 0 0 0.
At the surface, high pressure remains, but is slowly moving east toward the Southeast US. Models are in good agreement with developing a low pressure over the central Plains and moving it toward the Great Lakes with only slight differences in location and strength. A cold front associated with this low will approach the Central Gulf Coast drawing moisture northward over the area.
Temperatures were slightly cooler than expected, but still warmer than the past few nights. Then with mostly sunny skies expected Tuesday afternoon, highs will top out in the low and middle 80s.
1029 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016 High clouds streaming across the CWA in southwesterly upper flow ahead of a large upper trof off the west coast. Any snow will be confined to the highest mtn tops with lack of any real cold air.
but drier low level air from the lower MS Valley will begin to advect back W thus limiting cu development over Scntrl AR/N LA like what was observed this afternoon. Nw flow trough passing north of area will bring a few showers to far northern cwa on Wed, although moisture will be meager, a rumble or two of thunder is possible. Extended these isold pops a little further south into extreme northcentral LA Wed eve as trough digs a little on backside of broad upper low movg across great lakes. Upper ridge reestablishes and continues thru the weekend and beyond.
Late tonight/overnight, computer models hint at a cold front impinging on the terminals leading to a gusty wind shift to the north, as well as chances for -SHRA/-TSRA ahead and along the front. /issued 412 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017/ Strong southerly flow today has provided ample deep layer moisture coupled with weak upper trough advancing into the region to induce scattered showers over much of the region. So far, no thunder has been observed with any of this convection but still cannot rule out a stray storm or two across our eastern zones later on this afternoon into early evening ahead of an approaching cold front out over the Plains. Northwest winds will be gusty around frontal passage but will subside later in the day as high pressure quickly builds in behind the front.
822 PM MST Mon Mar 6 2017 Cancelled the High Wind Warning that was in effect until 2000 this evening. Mountains ridges and along the east slopes of the foothills may continue seeing gusty winds all night. The upper level trough will transition eastward with the upper level jet moving north into Wyoming.
1010 PM EST Mon Mar 6 2017 High pressure will push off the east coast tonight and Tuesday. A cold front will sweep southeast across the region late Tuesday.
639 PM EST Mon Mar 6 2017 High pressure will cross the region tonight. A warm front will cross the region Tuesday.
Only challenges tonight will be timing the cold front into the area and any brief convection and MVFR cigs just before and after FROPA. With a capping inversion and dry air ahead of the cold front, it's quite possible most convection will be elevated and post-frontal. Either way, with the best forcing remain well north of the area and the rapid southeast movement of the cold front, any line of showers and storms will be skinny and fast-moving. An upper trough moving through CO this afternoon will slowly shift eastward overnight tonight. Models are relatively consistent with the cold front entering our NW counties around or just after midnight. Front slows down a little during the day tomorrow as the upper trough lifts northward, so we may have some lingering rain in our SE counties through the early afternoon.
A cold front will push quickly across the region Tuesday evening and overnight. High pressure of mild Pacific origins is forecast to arrive behind the front for the balance of the week. The trailing cold front is expected to push east through the region Tuesday night.
Flattening ridge has brought us an unstable northwest flow pattern today. Weak ridging then sets up for the central half of our CWA on Tuesday.
High pressure will gradually build in from the west this week.
Wind and Winter Weather Highlights continue through early Upper trof is pushing eastward and tight surface pressure gradient is expected to relax through the evening. It will remain windy all night across the higher mountains. Will have to watch this potential closely however as the latest hrrr run tries to spread some strong gusts down into the higher elevations of the rampart range towards 15z. though western parts of Pueblo county and eastern Fremont county will also hit criteria on the west side of the surface lee trof.
/issued 314 PM EST Mon Mar 6 2017/ High pressure will continue to shift off to the Northeast tonight and through the early part of this week.
A squall line ahead of a cold front in the central Plains will develop across portions of IA/MO/IL this evening and push toward the east. The decaying squall line and associated cold front should push past the CWA by 21-23z tomorrow afternoon. Air mass behind the cold front has Pacific origins and mellows out by the time it reaches us, so won't see a big cool down with it.
So, some excellent shear with directional shear in the lowest 1 km.
An upper-trough passing across the central plains has brought a strong middle-level jet streak across the southern plains and Texas Panhandle today. The winds will decrease this evening as the speedmax shifts E-NE, but a cold front will drop south through the area tonight in the wake of the exiting wave.
641 PM EST Mon Mar 6 2017 High pressure off the coast will move farther out to sea on Tuesday.
Southerly winds will continue to be brisk with 15-25 knots common and gusts around 30 knots, eventually shifting to the northwest during the afternoon Tuesday as a cold front moves through the region.
322 PM MST Mon Mar 6 2017 Ginormous trough extends across W. NOAM which transitions to an eastern state ridge then another deep low over the Canadian maritimes. A very strong upstream polar jet is digging through the base of the trough this afternoon and the trough is taking on a bit of a negative tilt. At the moment most models and ensembles are favoring the highest peaks of the Gore/Park Range and to a lesser extent the Flat Tops and Sawatch/Mosquitos. The jet and hence the storm track will be lifting north meaning a drier and warmer forecast to end out the week.