Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NO LONGER EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WEAKENS AND DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MINNESOTA TO THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE THE COLD FRONT HAD MOVED THROUGH OUR CWA AND STRETCHED FROM CORPUS CHRISTI TO LAREDO AND UP THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE BIG BEND. A SPLIT WILL DEVELOP IN THE UPPER PATTERN WITH A LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH SWINGING DOWN THROUGH NORTHERN TEXAS TONIGHT. FRIDAY A RIDGE WILL BUILD UP FROM THE SOUTH. COLD AIR WILL SETTLE IN TONIGHT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
/ISSUED 318 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/ TEMPS AREAWIDE CURRENTLY AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS. AREAS ALONG INTERSTATE 20 STILL CONTINUING THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SLEET WITH MOST LOCATIONS STILL HOVERING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECTING RAIN TO TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BY DAYBREAK ACROSS THESE AREAS. COULD SEE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WITH ALL OTHER AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION.
508 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015 A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL PASS BY THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST TOTALS STILL ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE LOCALLY A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW TOTAL WILL BE POSSIBLE. RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE FA.
530 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015 WARMING WILL BEGIN SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MOVES EAST. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH AFTER THE EVENING DROP BUT THEY CERTAINLY WILL NOT FALL LATE TONIGHT UNDER THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WARMING. A LITTLE DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL WORK BACK INTO THE REGION. WHILE FAVORING THE WARMER GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER-MID 50S ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.
STILL FORECASTING BELOW GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN OVERHEAD AND ANCHORS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL GET ABOVE FREEZING ON BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND.
WHILE THE MODELS MAY NOT HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW 70S AT MGM AND THE LOW 30S AT HALEYVILLE. THE ONGOING FORECAST ACTUALLY HAS THE PROGRESSION OF THE FREEZING LINE INTO OUR AREA HANDLED PRETTY WELL. STILL THINK THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE WILL REACH THE FAYETTE AND JASPER AREAS BY 12Z. FREEZING LINE WILL PROBABLY PUSH A BIT FARTHER SOUTH FROM THERE. THIS WILL BE THE CRITICAL TIME WHERE FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WOULD MOST LIKELY REACH THEIR GREATEST INTENSITY. OUR CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING AREA COINCIDES PRETTY WELL WITH THIS JUXTAPOSITION OF STEADY PRECIPITATION AND BELOW FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
227 AM PST THU MAR 5 2015 Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather.
GFS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH COLD ADVECTION IN WAKE OF TROUGH PASSAGE WHEN COMPARED WITH NAM/ECMWF AND WILL FOLLOW WITH THE LATER WHICH HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT.
1054 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015 A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
335 AM PST THU MAR 5 2015 Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather.
WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AS 925 MB TEMPS WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. THE ECMWF REMAINS MUCH WARMER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE.
527 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015 WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING WAS SHOWING AN ELONGATED POS TILT TROF EXTENDING FROM ERN CANADA TO THE SRN PLAINS WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WRN CONUS.
WEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BRING THE FOG INTO ALL TAF SITES AFTER 06Z.
610 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015 LARGE SWATH OF PRECIP IS MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MID SOUTH/TN VALLEY REGIONS THIS EARLY THU MORNING. MUCH OF THIS PRECIP IS GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO CHANGEOVER TO A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET FOR AREAS ALONG/W OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. LINGERING UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE NW IS HELPING TO DRIVE MUCH OF THIS PRECIP ACROSS THE SE STATES. WITH A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE XPCTED TO SETTLE INTO THE SE REGION SAT/SUN. HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SE STATES WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE SRN/MID ATLANTIC BASIN INTO MON. ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY A SECOND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES DIVING SEWD INTO THE MIDWEST/MID SOUTH REGIONS.
A WELL-DEVELOPED ANTICYCLONE IS IN CHARGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STRETCHES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S. THE COLD FRONT TRANSECTING THE NORTHERN GULF WILL PRESS SOUTHWARD TODAY. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL ERODE AS IT CONCEDES TO THE LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT. A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. WHILE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
630 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015 A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP LAYER RIDGING BEGINS ITS RETREAT TODAY AS A COOL FRONT APPROACHES THE STATE FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AND MID LEVEL TROUGHING APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S EXPECTED.
A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP A DRY AND COOL NW FLOW OVER THE REGION.
A SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE AS THE HIGH DROPS INTO ILLINOIS. A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES OVER NW WI FRIDAY MORNING.
619 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015 A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
Just a few minor updates were made for the fcst across the region for the rest of today, as the general pattern with the increasing shower activity out ahead of the approaching cold front is fairly well on schedule.
1037 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015 A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING.
WARM AND BREEZY TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHEARED OUT COLD FRONT WHICH WAS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS EAST OVER SOUTHERN AL. TEMPERATURES WERE ON TRACK TO RISE INTO THE LOW 80S INLAND TO UPPER 70S COAST UNDER DEEP LAYER SW FLOW WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE REMAINING PINNED OFFSHORE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AS AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THEN DISAGREEMENT INCREASED SHARPLY REGARDING WHETHER OR NOT A COLD TROUGH WOULD AFFECT THE AREA BEGINNING TUE NIGHT. ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPSLOPE FLOW AND QPF. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF TRANSITIONS TO WEAK RIDGING AND DOES BRING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ON THU.
A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE REACHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. WHILE A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
445 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015 THE WARM-UP BEGINS TODAY AS A LEE-SIDE PRESSURE TROF COMBINES WITH LLVL WAA. A DECOUPLED AIR MASS EAST OF THIS TROF THIS TROF AND CLEAR SKIES/SNOW PACK HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL BELOW ZERO DOUGLAS- CHADRON. LLVL GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED WEST OF THE TROF BOOSTING WIND GUSTS 40-50 MPH. MIXING DOWN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT RESULTING IN TEMPS IN THE TEENS. PRESSURE TROF WILL CONTINUE SLIDING EAST THIS MORNING SO WOULD ACTUALLY EXPECT SOME MODERATION BEFORE SUNRISE.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MINNESOTA TO THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE THE COLD FRONT HAD MOVED THROUGH OUR CWA AND STRETCHED FROM CORPUS CHRISTI TO LAREDO AND UP THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE BIG BEND. A SPLIT WILL DEVELOP IN THE UPPER PATTERN WITH A LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH SWINGING DOWN THROUGH NORTHERN TEXAS TONIGHT. FRIDAY A RIDGE WILL BUILD UP FROM THE SOUTH. COLD AIR WILL SETTLE IN TONIGHT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
Latest high report is 19" at Falls of Rough in Breckinridge County. So far the highest total is 16" in Radcliff, in Hardin county, with several foot+ reports. Skies will clear tonight with winds going light and variable as well as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley. Winds will become more southerly by Friday afternoon, and under a good March sunshine, we should get close to the freezing mark, but given the snow pack in place kept the forecast under for most locations.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT HAS JUST MOVED THROUGH LOWER ACADIANA. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LAKES AREA OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE A WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT RAIN, SLEET, AND PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE INDICATED. WINDS WILL BE REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP WELL BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. A LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROF TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND.
640 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015 COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. A WARM FRONT OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST A BIT THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE TROUGH WEST WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR IN. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN RECENT HISTORY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. SEPARATING COLDER AIR NORTHEAST FROM WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
932 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015 A 1004 MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTN HOURS TODAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION TODAY. WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK THIS AFTN AS WELL WITH GUSTS REACHING ONLY THE LOWER TEENS. A STRONG 185 KNOT 250 MB JET MAX FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. 700 MB DOWNWARD MOTION BECOMES STRONGER BEFORE BECOMING WEAK UPWARD AS A SECOND WEAKER TROUGH MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT. THEN BECOME STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING LATE AS SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE HIGH DROPPING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
645 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015 A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL PASS BY THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST TOTALS STILL ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE LOCALLY A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW TOTAL WILL BE POSSIBLE. RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE FA.
THE WARMUP WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE STATE. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS INTO IOWA PUTTING THE BREAKS ON THE WARMUP.
TODAYS TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE VERY MUCH WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S. TONIGHT MAY SEE A FEW LOCATIONS GET DOWN TO FREEZING. THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR FREEZING TEMPS DUE TO WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED ALONG WITH SCT/BKN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY WILL BE ONLY A TAD WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
Will remain in the freezer today with the Arctic air mass in place and temperatures will struggle to reach the freezing mark. Fair weather high pressure was building into the nation's midsection this morning, bringing cold but stable weather.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
602 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015 COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO FRIDAY.
Although the ridge will retreat to the east and winds will veer around to the south in the afternoon with abundant sunshine. Highs should range from near the freezing mark at Hiawatha to near 40 in the Minneapolis vicinity. the combination of a few mid and high clouds and a persistent southerly wind should help to limit low temps to the low to middle 20s.
Latest high report is 19" at Falls of Rough in Breckinridge county. So far the highest total is 16" in Radcliff, in Hardin county, with several foot+ reports. Skies will clear tonight with winds going light and variable as well as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley. Winds will become more southerly by Friday afternoon, and under a good March sunshine, we should get close to the freezing mark, but given the snow pack in place kept the forecast under for most locations.
THE FORECAST GRIDS WERE MODIFIED TO REFLECT THE HIGHER SNOW FALL AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR NORTH IN RELATION TO A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SNOW THAT MOVED THROUGH THERE OVERNIGHT. FREEZING RAIN.
947 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015 COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO FRIDAY.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. A WARM FRONT OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST A BIT THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE TROUGH WEST WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR IN. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN RECENT HISTORY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. SEPARATING COLDER AIR NORTHEAST FROM WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
We may scattered clouds around 5000-6000 ft for an hour or two after the low clouds break, but otherwise clear skies are expected through the remainder of the TAF period. /ISSUED 349 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2015/ (Today and tonight) A mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow was observed across all of West Central TX yesterday afternoon and evening, but precipitation has really tapered off over the past few hours. The upper-level trough axis remains just to our west as of 3 AM, but the plume of mid /upper-level moisture has been shunted off to the east. The low clouds are beginning to break up from Lubbock to Wichita Falls as dewpoints fall into the teens. Most areas will see overnight lows in the lower 20s, but a few low- lying areas may drop into the mid/upper teens.
Early this morning, high pressure is building into the area from the northwest. High pressure will remain over the area most of today and temperatures are not expected to rebound much as mixing will be weak. Tonight, the much anticipated warm-up will begin as high pressure shifts east of the area and southerly flow begins to increase overnight and into Friday.
545 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION TODAY PROVIDING UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE HIGH SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 30S ON FRIDAY.
THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS SO FAR HAVE OCCURRED ALONG AND NORTH OF I64 AND BETWEEN THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY AND I64 CORRIDOR. THE FORECAST GRIDS WERE MODIFIED TO REFLECT THE HIGHER SNOW FALL AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR NORTH IN RELATION TO A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SNOW THAT MOVED THROUGH THERE OVERNIGHT. THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD WITH TIME. WHILE THE WESTERN RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. RIDGING SHOULD BUILD OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST AND ALLOW DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND APPALACHIANS.
547 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CENTER OF A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. TODAY AND TONIGHT ANOTHER VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH AN EXTENSION OF THIS HIGH EXTENDING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THE ONLY THING STAVING OFF AN EVEN COLDER NIGHT WILL BE A SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH.
/ISSUED 338 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2015/ Upper level trough axis approaching the region with precipitation occurring east of the forecast area across central and east Texas. Have also canceled the High Wind Warning for Guadalupe Pass due to recent trends.
At the surface, high pressure tracking southeast across northwest Iowa will drift across our area today bringing another 24 hours of unseasonably cold weather with afternoon highs struggling through the teens over most of the forecast area, which is about 30 degrees below where it should be for the first week in March. The long wave trough from Lake Superior to New Mexico evident on early morning water vapor imagery will move through the Midwest later today. After that, nice southwest flow should get much of the western half of the forecast area above freezing on Friday.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE FRIDAY AS SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS.
811 AM EDT TUE APR 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA, WITH THE CENTER NEAR BERMUDA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT, BRINGING AT LEAST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
THE TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR CONVECTION OVER THE TN VALLEY AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS EAST. WITHOUT THE PRIMARY MID-UPPER LEVEL PUSH, THE SFC COLD FRONT IN THESE CASES TENDS TO LAG ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FROM THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING GRADUALLY REBUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SPINNING OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF OREGON. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY AND THEN INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OREGON WITH RAIN AND SNOW. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WITHIN THIS TROUGH, CURRENTLY OFF THE NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA COAST, WILL SWING EAST TO NORTHERN NEVADA BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. A DEFORMATION PRECIP BAND MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TONIGHT.
BUT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP IS REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO THE PERSISTENCE OF VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR ONE MORE DAY OF VERY LOW HUMIDITIES ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND PRESSURE FALLS IN ADVANCE OF SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TONIGHT FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IN A NARROW CORRIDOR SOMEWHERE FROM LAKE MILLE LACS OR THE BRAINERD AREAS.
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF OUR AREA AS EVIDENCED BY MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
TEMPS ARE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING AND LIKELY TO STAY SO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. EASTERLY FLOW WEAKENS DURING THE DAY AS AN UPPER TROF LIFTS INTO CANADA. AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HOWEVER AS THE UPPER TROF EJECTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
BUT A COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE ERRATIC WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS ALONG THE KS BORDER TONIGHT. THE PROXIMITY OF A COLD FRONT MAY REDUCE WINDS WELL BELOW THE SPEEDS NEEDED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING.
WITH WARM FRONT AT 00Z EXTENDING THROUGH THE KS/NEB BORDER TOWARD SOUTHERN IA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY ACROSS THE PLAINS. CONDITIONS RIPE AGAIN FOR DENVER CYCLONE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO AT LEAST NORTH DENVER BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE GREAT BASIN PUSHES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH ITS JET MOVING OVER THE STATE. COLDER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH AS THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. MODELS HAVE KEPT WITH THE SAME TRACK OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT SHUNTING ENERGY ALONG THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE JET NORTH OF OUR REGION.
Water vapor imagery shows a subtle mid level wave over the high plains. Low level jet of 35-45 kts at 850 mb was occurring across the area with a warm front set up across central MO. Another warm day is in store for the area on Wednesday with the warm front shifting northward.
1022 AM EDT TUE APR 7 2015 A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SLIP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO OUR NORTH.
AND AS UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST BEGINS TO EJECT EASTWARD. QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH AS IT ENTERS THE PLAINS. ALSO UNKNOWN IS THE IMPACT OF CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME PATCHY SUNSHINE ALREADY IN A FEW SPOTS AND MOST TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EXCEPT NORTH OF I-30 WHERE MID TO UPPER 60S RESIDE.
Meanwhile, a thermal ridge at 850mb will expand into our counties this afternoon and help produce afternoon highs mainly in the 85 to 90 range; that's around 15 degrees above normal highs.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN MICHIGAN TO THE LOW 60S IN CENTRAL INDIANA. CONVOLUTED PATTERN CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING SW OUT OF MICHIGAN. A COLD FRONT SINKING S/SE OUT OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS. KEPT CHC/SLT CHC POPS IN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS IN THE MOIST WEAK WAA PATTERN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. INCREASED POPS AFTER 00Z AS A S/W MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN LAKES AND A 40 KNOT LLJ LIFTS THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD. PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 WITH BROAD LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
1022 AM EDT TUE APR 7 2015 AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW SHIFTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING FOR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TODAY.
THESE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AID IN MAINTAINING A SRLY LLVL FLOW ACROSS S TX WITH WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE WINDIEST OF THE TWO SHORT TERM DAYS.
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED FARTHER SOUTH THAN PROGGED BY SYNOPTIC MODELS.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MID LVLS IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM THE ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS KEEPING THE REGION WARM AND GENERALLY DRY. FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND WED MORNING WITH SEA FOG POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING BY WED AS WELL AS DEWPTS APPROACH THE LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
/ISSUED 811 AM EDT TUE APR 7 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA, WITH THE CENTER NEAR BERMUDA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT, BRINGING AT LEAST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD ARIZONA.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SFC RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC. ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 80S LOOKS ON TRACK. CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING IS LESS THAN YESTERDAY SO MAY GET A LITTLE WARMER. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OUTER BANKS (NC) WITH THE LOWEST PRESSURES OVER WESTERN KS MAINTAINING PERSISTENT SOUTHERLIES ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS. GULF CENTERED UPPER RIDGING.