Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
722 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2020 High pressure will shift slowly east of the region through the end of the weekend, leading to a gradual increase in high level cloudiness.
This high, in concert with troughing over the High Plains, has established strong gradient flow from the Southern Plains into the Upper Midwest, resulting in breezy conditions across the region. These southerly winds will also continue to advect warmer temps into the region, with forecast highs about 5-10 degrees warmer than what we're seeing this afternoon.
312 PM MST Sat Mar 7 2020 A strong thermal ridge remains over the region this afternoon. A cold front will cross northeastern Wyoming and far western South Dakota on Sunday morning, and will reach south central South Dakota early in the afternoon. The front will be followed by cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity.
153 AM EST Sun Mar 8 2020 A large ridge of high pressure will build east and become centered over the Commonwealth tonight and Sunday.
417 AM EDT Sun Mar 8 2020 The large scale pattern is dominated by deep ridging over much of eastern North America this morning.
349 AM EDT Sun Mar 8 2020 Today will be much warmer with westerly winds in place.
The work week will be mainly dry, with periods of mountain showers but towards the end it will get cooler and more showery again. A splitting upper level trough is evolving with the axis off the Pacific coast.
A really nice day is coming to a close with high pressure sitting to our north.
311 AM EDT Sun Mar 8 2020 Circulation around high pressure over the Carolinas will bring warm air into the region on south breezes today. Though there should be a fair amount of cirrus overhead, will still go on the warm side of guidance and call for highs in the lower and middle 60s. Tonight the high will drift only slightly eastward while a cold front crosses the Midwest and central Plains.
955 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2020 High pressure will continue to settle across the area tonight and Sunday.
1142 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2020 There will be an increase in the low level wind field overnight. The onset of daytime heating on Sunday will transition the low level wind shear to low level mechanical mixing with sfc wind gusts likely topping 25 knots Sun afternoon.
High pressure remains in control and some high clouds move overnight. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 40 65 54 66 / 0 0 0 80 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 37 65 53 64 / 0 0 0 80 90 Oak Ridge, TN 62 38 64 52 64 / 0 0 0 90 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 34 63 49 63 / 0 0 0 70 90.
156 AM MST Sun Mar 8 2020 Water vapor shows upper ridge axis shifting into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes with large trof over the western CONUS. At the surface, cold front (associated with northern stream short wave over the northern Rockies) has pushed into far southeast Montana. Cold front will move quickly through most of our zones this morning, reaching far south central SD around noon. Gusty northwest winds and cooler temps will be found behind the front, but highs will likely reach near 70 over far south central SD before the front arrives.
Some mid level Gulf moisture will be trapped underneath the ridge leading to a few passing clouds during the day today, but no rain is expected.
/Tonight/ The evening sfc analysis indicates sfc ridging has shifted E into the OH valley SW to the Sabine River Valley.
High pressure remains in control and some high clouds move overnight. High pressure is in control and will allow for VFR conditions through the period at all terminals. Chattanooga Airport, TN 33 63 40 65 54 / 0 0 0 0 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 31 62 37 65 53 / 0 0 0 0 80 Oak Ridge, TN 31 62 38 64 52 / 0 0 0 0 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 26 61 34 63 49 / 0 0 0 0 70.
/Issued 700 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2020/ Dry conditions will prevail through the short term as ridge of high pressure shifts eastward over the eastern US.
1017 PM MST Sat Mar 7 2020 A strong thermal ridge remains over the region this afternoon. A cold front will cross northeastern Wyoming and far western South Dakota on Sunday morning, and will reach south central South Dakota early in the afternoon. The front will be followed by cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity.
High pressure has moved to the Atlantic Coast this morning with the flow locally becoming onshore, albeit light at the current time. Low pressure has also moved into the northern plains. Aloft the ridge has also shifted east and a trough is moving into the Pacific Coast with the southern jet streaming moisture into the Baja across Mexico and into West Texas. Tomorrow moisture will continue to increase as the high departs and low pressure moves across the plains. A cold front will move into North Texas, North Louisiana, or South Arkansas and stall early in the week which will keep temperatures mild/above average for the period. The subtropical jet is expected to remain in place with no real push to drive a cold front through the north gulf coast this week.
1217 AM EST Sun Mar 8 2020 Mostly clear skies can be expected this weekend as a ridge of high pressure remains over the region. Winds will become south on the back side of the high and allow temperatures to rise above normal Sunday with highs near 60.
1034 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2020 Currently - The Keys remain in a cool and windy post cold front flow. Northeast breezes are being driven by a strong high pressure cell aligned over the mid Atlantic states. Short Term Update - The eastern United States high pressure system will push southeastwards towards the Carolina coast overnight, maintaining its strength.
Mid/high clouds were increasing and spreading west to east ahead of the next Pacific trough and cold front moving through the Intermountain West. Temperatures in the 70s out in the Panhandle with 1PM humidities in the low teens east of the Laramie Range. our next cold front is currently located along western Idaho.
A return Srly flow has commenced this evening, with the low level moisture return expected to commence by/after 18Z over ECntrl TX and Srn/Cntrl LA.
1108 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2020 A large ridge of high pressure will build east and become centered over the Commonwealth tonight and Sunday.
144 AM EST Sun Mar 8 2020 High pressure will continue to settle across the area tonight and Sunday.
845 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2020 High pressure is centered over the Appalachians this evening. As a result, expect lows to be a tad warmer with readings in the 30s everywhere except Downtown Memphis. Temperature are in the low to mid 50s as of mid- day. Winds remain light with high pressure overhead.
1233 AM EST Sun Mar 8 2020 High pressure will bring fair weather and rising temperatures this weekend.
1248 AM EST Sun Mar 8 2020 High pressure will shift slowly east of the region through the end of the weekend, leading to a gradual increase in high level cloudiness.
Mid to upper level ridging will remain over the local area as it slowly moves east through tonight. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Carolina's will move east off the southeast U. Local winds will swing around to the east and southeast resulting in an increase in moisture along with afternoon temperatures on the order of 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday's.
Moisture will return late Sunday on southwest flow aloft, spreading showers mainly into the higher terrain.
Strong southerlies will reinforce the warmer air mass hroughout southwest and central Kansas today resulting in above normal temperatures this afternoon. For tonight, expect lows down into the 40s(F) in west central Kansas as a cold front begins to push into the area toward daybreak.
High pressure will reach the Carolina coast and winds will veer more Easterly. Max temperatures will moderate into the low 70s area wide. While a period of lower sea heights in nearshore waters by early Sunday, seas again increase later in forecast period as large swells begin to propagate into the local Atlc waters from the intense cyclone off the Canadian maritimes.
345 AM CDT Sun Mar 8 2020 West to southwesterly flow is now standard at 500mb, as a strong low and associated trough move into the west coast. Expect the low to sink southeast, and stretch from the southwestern to northeastern corners of the cwa by 15Z, before moving just to our southeast by 21Z. Fire weather concerns will not be as pronounced, although grassland fire danger index values will be in the high to very high category near and west of the Missouri River.
A warm frontal boundary extends across the central valley from south central North Dakota into Kittson County.
1129 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2020 Strong south winds gusting 30 to 35 mph and dewpoints in the lower 20s have resulted in another day of critical fire weather conditions. Unlike today, high pressure over the Southeast will shift slightly more to the east tomorrow allowing the Gulf to open and low-level moisture to finally begin to advect northward through the day.
In wake of this undulation, a massive and sharp ridge will emerge over the entire eastern United States equatorward into the Gulf of Mexico. This deep troposheric anticyclone will translate into the western Atlantic ocean early this week.
309 AM CDT Sun Mar 8 2020 An impressive upper level ridge will linger over the area for one more day, keeping temperatures 20 to 25 degrees above normal.
Temperatures will be well above average today, with the warmer conditions lingering into the week ahead. High pressure continues to rule the weather pattern across much of the eastern US. As the High lingers today, winds will continue to be ushered into the Midwest from the SSW.
946 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2020 Definitely a taste of spring across the region this weekend with plentiful sunshine and steady southerly flow ushering in a progressively warmer airmass. Meanwhile low pressure developing over eastern Montana will slowly drift into the Dakotas. This strong mixing, combined with rising 925mb temps (almost +10C across our far southwest) and a strong early-March sun angle, has already bumped several locations into the low to mid 50s early this afternoon.
1032 PM MST Sat Mar 7 2020 A moderate southwest flow regime will continue over the area ahead of an elongated upper level trough moving east over the Great Basin tonight. Temperatures will remain warmer than normal and snow levels high.
Weak upper level trough moves across Florida later today and tonight. Upper level ridge strengthens across area for the rest of the week keeping cold fronts north of the area.
/issued 845 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2020/ High pressure is centered over the Appalachians this evening. As a result, expect lows to be a tad warmer with readings in the 30s everywhere except Downtown Memphis. Temperature are in the low to mid 50s as of mid- day. Winds remain light with high pressure overhead.
745 AM EDT Sun Mar 8 2020 A large bubble of high pressure centered over the Carolinas will keep our weather fair and increasingly warm for today and Monday.
Mid/upper level flow continues to become more southwesterly across the central Plains as a large upper ridge moves well off to our east. Otherwise, temperatures are expected to be much above normal once again with strong low-level mixing ahead of an approaching cold front. This should push highs into the lower 70s with some mid-upper 70s possible across northeast Nebraska where strongest mixing will occur ahead of the approaching cold front. The highest precipitation amounts will extend across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa where around 0. The first round will be a period of isentropic upglide in the warm air advection zone ahead of the approaching cold front with the second round coming as post-frontal showers lingering well into Monday morning.
The highs today will be warmer than yesterday although staying below normal by a couple of degrees or so. High pressure north of the waters will keep a combination of advisory and caution winds in the forecast this morning. The high pressure eases east during today with winds diminishing and veering.
Circulation around high pressure over the Carolinas will bring warm air into the region on south breezes today. Though there should be a fair amount of cirrus overhead, will still go on the warm side of guidance and call for highs in the lower and middle 60s. Tonight the high will drift only slightly eastward while a cold front crosses the Midwest and central Plains. An approaching upper level trough will set the stage for cloudy and wet weather Monday. Southerly to southwesterly flow will pick up ahead of a cold front associated with the trough, which will aid in the advection of GoM moisture poleward.
404 AM MDT Sun Mar 8 2020 Satellite and 500mb RAP analysis showed a large ridge spanning the central CONUS today. Southwest flow aloft continues across the region overnight as the ridge shifts east towards the Upper Midwest. A cold front is also anticipated to sweep through the area Sunday night, with breezy north winds behind the front as it moves through. Temperatures fall into the low 30s to low 40s under mostly cloudy/cloudy skies.
The best timing for showers still looks like tonight, as the upper trough moves across West Texas.
The midlevel trough axis over the Great Basin will track overhead today and provide increased forcing. There was a midlevel cap yesterday that delayed precipitation development and limited the coverage, but the cap should fully erode today with the passage of the trough. Temperatures will run 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday mainly due to clouds and precipitation. The 700 mb temperatures will begin to drop as the trough moves over the area. The coverage and intensity of showers do not look to support much more than perhaps 2-4 inches in the highest elevations.
* None The large scale pattern is dominated by deep ridging over much of eastern North America this morning.
As a cold front approaches this afternoon, the pressure gradient will begin to relax and allow wind speeds to decrease by afternoon and evening. I do think that the timing of the cold front appears to be favorable for some compressional heating just ahead of the front and I have boosted temps up in our central/northwest with this in mind. If it didn't look like a significant amount of increasing and thickening clouds were moving in from the southwest, I would have gone a few degrees warmer. But still, I am favoring the warmer MAV guidance over cooler guidances, and even overshooting MAV guidance for some spots.
Still the potential for a few embedded thunderstorms with initial activity, however surface based instability will likely lag the main precipitation and reside in a narrow corridor directly ahead of cold front Monday afternoon.
By sunrise Monday, the POPs will be generally east of I-35 as the system moves out, while a weak cold front across the Central Plains will be getting ready to move into northwest Oklahoma.
An upper level trough will slowly move east across the region today through Monday. A chance for showers will continue today on the periphery of a departing cold front over the Oregon Cascades, while elsewhere stabilizing air will minimize any continued chances for showers.
The forecast is already at the warmest MAV guidance for temperatures and with the low end of dewpoint guidance employed the forecast should be about as low as we can go for relative humidity.
If we mix higher, and have a superadiabatic layer at the surface, we could see even warmer temperatures. Later this evening a cold front will move across the region, and bring northwest winds and cooler temperatures for Monday.
608 AM EDT Sun Mar 8 2020 Dry high pressure over the area will move slowly off the coast through Monday.
West to southwesterly flow is now standard at 500mb, as a strong low and associated trough move into the west coast. Expect the low to sink southeast, and stretch from the southwestern to northeastern corners of the cwa by 15Z, before moving just to our southeast by 21Z. Fire weather concerns will not be as pronounced, although grassland fire danger index values will be in the high to very high category near and west of the Missouri River. Temperatures should fall into the 20s tonight, and rise back into more seasonal values Monday as a dry ridge of high pressure moves overhead.
High pressure should be well offshore by Monday night as a frontal boundary moves into the Mississippi River Valley.
501 AM MDT Sun Mar 8 2020 Water vapor shows upper ridge axis shifting into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes with large trof over the western CONUS. At the surface, cold front (associated with northern stream short wave over the northern Rockies) has pushed into far southeast Montana. Cold front will move quickly through most of our zones this morning, reaching far south central SD around noon. Gusty northwest winds and cooler temps will be found behind the front, but highs will likely reach near 70 over far south central SD before the front arrives. Cooler temps expected Monday with highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
633 AM EDT Sun Mar 8 2020 High pressure will bring warm temperatures and dry conditions today through Monday.
Highs will be rather uniform in the lower 70s, but cooler along the Volusia coast, around 70.
914 AM EDT Sun Mar 8 2020 Dry high pressure over the area will move slowly off the coast through Monday.
Deterministic runs predict a flat upper ridge over the CWA today. Low SREF visibility values add credence to the low risk for fog tonight.
An exiting upper level trough may allow for some isolated showers but otherwise dry conditions expected today and Monday.
A weak disturbance will bring a chance of light showers and cooler temperatures today.
729 AM EDT Sun Mar 8 2020 High pressure will move overhead with beautiful weather expected Sunday into Monday.
532 AM EDT Sun Mar 8 2020 A large bubble of high pressure centered over the Carolinas will keep our weather fair and increasingly warm for today and Monday.
Moisture will continue to stream northward on Monday ahead of a cold front located from NE Kansas stretching southwest into central Kansas Monday morning. As the cold front moves across the area a few rumbles of thunder are possible near the cold front as weak instability develops during the afternoon hours mainly from the Missouri River southward. By Monday evening the cold front moves south and east of the area with showers ending.
WV imagery shows the upper ridge covering the ern CONUS, w/a fetch of subtropical moisture streaming across Baja del Sur and into the region. This moisture is forecast to increase over the next 24 hours, w/ensembles increasing PWAT anomalies to 4-5 std devs above normal over the higher terrain by 00Z Mon. Meanwhile, an upper trough over the Pacific will approach Baja del Norte, making landfall Thu night, and resulting in increasing chances of convection Thu/Fri. This will meet up w/a cold front moving into the area Thu night, courtesy of a trough moving into the Great Lakes region. As the trough moves thru Fri, models even try to develop a dryline as westerlies push off the higher terrain. The cold front will take temps down to normal Fri/Sat.
642 AM CDT Sun Mar 8 2020 An impressive upper level ridge will linger over the area for one more day, keeping temperatures 20 to 25 degrees above normal.
GOES-16 Satellite trends/00Z upper air analysis indicates a ridge of high pressure present over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Surface and upper level ridging will remain in place across the Lower Mississippi Valley today resulting in another day of rain free weather. Highs this afternoon will be warmer and spring-like in the 60s to approaching 70 degrees. Short term models indicate the upper level ridge axis will shift east tonight with southwest flow aloft returning to the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Strong southerlies will reinforce the warmer air mass hroughout southwest and central Kansas today resulting in above normal temperatures this afternoon. For tonight, expect lows down into the 40s(F) in west central Kansas as a cold front begins to push into the area toward daybreak. Drier air spreading into the high plains of western Kansas in wake of a cold frontal passage early morning will preclude precip chances for the most part.
639 AM EDT Sun Mar 8 2020 A large bubble of high pressure centered over the Carolinas will keep our weather fair and increasingly warm for today and Monday.
However, latest RAOBs show that model initialization was on the high side. Even if the model values are too high than what will be observed today, they are still in the highest percentiles compared to climatology.
Highs today will reach the lower 70s at most locations, while Monday will see a further rise into the mid to upper 70s as winds shift further southward. Elevated surface moisture, a long southerly fetch, and water temperatures in the low 60s will provide favorable conditions for fog development beginning on Monday morning in the bays and across the coastal waters.
959 AM EDT Sun Mar 8 2020 High pressure over the Carolinas will move offshore tonight. Southerly winds will bring warmer temperatures beginning Monday.
1010 AM EDT Sun Mar 8 2020 High pressure centered over the region this afternoon will slip to the SE coast tonight, then offshore Monday.
730 AM EDT Sun Mar 8 2020 High pressure centered across the Carolinas will move offshore on Monday.
The next low pressure system will deliver a mix of rain and snow, with light amounts of total precipitation, on Monday.
230 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2020 Upper ridging is over the eastern half of the country with southwest flow over West Texas and southeast New Mexico. Temperatures today will be cooler than yesterday with the increase in cloud cover and moisture.
This will lead to modest ridge/valley split on temperatures tonight.
332 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2020 Tonight through Monday: As strong high pressure gradually shifts east, the dry airmass will slowly moisten overnight, but expect a much more dramatic moisture increase during the day Monday with precipitable water values rising to near 1.
1142 AM MDT Sun Mar 8 2020 Water vapor shows upper ridge axis shifting into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes with large trof over the western CONUS. At the surface, cold front (associated with northern stream short wave over the northern Rockies) has pushed into far southeast Montana. Cold front will move quickly through most of our zones this morning, reaching far south central SD around noon. Gusty northwest winds and cooler temps will be found behind the front, but highs will likely reach near 70 over far south central SD before the front arrives. Cooler temps expected Monday with highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
216 PM EDT Sun Mar 8 2020 High pressure will bring warm temperatures and dry conditions through Monday.
Could see another couple of bands of precip develop and move northeast across the area overnight as main trough progresses east into the central and southern Plains. A surface cold front will also enter northwest Oklahoma by morning and will push through the area during the day. However, thermal ridge out ahead of this front and more sunshine will likely result in warmer temps across much of the area compared to Sunday.
204 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2020 Upper ridging has flattened a bit although heights are rising.
310 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2020 The main concern in the short term is with precipitation chances and winds along the cold front.
Our area is now within the cooler air behind yesterday's cold front. Moisture from an upper low off California will spread into our area tonight and Monday with light pcpn expected mainly on Monday. Pcpn will exit to the southeast Monday night with dry and gradually warmer weather the rest of the work week.
158 PM EDT Sun Mar 8 2020 High pressure will push south of the area tonight and Sunday. A warm front lifts north of the region on Monday, continuing a warming trend.
308 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2020 High pressure will be progresing eastward through the area today and Monday causing lower rain chances.
243 PM EDT Sun Mar 8 2020 Dry high pressure over the area will move off the coast tonight.
248 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2020 A mild night is ahead tonight as south winds will stay up some as the boundary layer will not completely decouple and the surface pressure gradient remains fairly tight with height and pressure falls ahead of an approaching upper level short wave trough and jet streak.