Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure centered over northern Wisconsin this morning will keep conditions fairly quiet across the Northland today. The high will slip southeastward toward northern Lower Michigan by tonight which will result in a southerly return flow developing near the surface. Temperatures will nudge a few degrees warmer today with abundant sunshine expected.
However it is fairly clear now with temperatures back into the low 80s and dew points in the mid 60s to low 70s. However, the sun will be setting by then and the low level jet and 850mb warm advection is not that impressive. Think most activity will diminish by late evening, but some of the high resolution models show a shower or weak storm lingering into the overnight hours up along the Canadian border. Beyond that, there could be a potential along/north of the highway 2 corridor late tonight into Thursday morning.
High pressure over the Western Great Lakes is expected to remain anchored the next several days. Surface analysis early this afternoon shows strong high pressure in place across Wisconsin. Water Vapor imagery shows large ridging in place aloft over the western United States. The strong ridge aloft to the west will continue to provide lee side subsidence across the region. keeping high pressure in place across Wisconsin and Lake Superior.
Upper troughing will persist across mid state region with little if any sfc features of note after weak sfc frontal passage this afternoon expected. Broke out a late afternoon zone grouping for late afternoon convection mainly across srn and the higher elevations of Cumberland Plateau Region. A second upper low system still looks like it will move across central Canada and keep upper level troughing over the eastern half of the contiguous U. The best chance of shwrs/tstms will be on Sun as it still looks like a weak upper level disturbance moves thru eastern side of trough.
1115 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist today with a slow moving cold front. Mainly dry weather returns for most areas Thursday under building high pressure.
An upper ridge remains parked over the Rockies and Northern Plains with a trough over the eastern Great Lakes.
327 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 Updated at 320 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 A large upper high continues to sit over the southwestern Plains with a large ridge flowing norht of this high. This is providing the Ohio Valley with northwest flow overhead that continues to push the weak cold front through eastern and southern Kentucky. Tomorrow, the north wind from the cold front and heavier cloud cover stretching from the Bluegrass towards the west will help limit temperatures to the low to mid 80s.
355 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 A cold front extending across central Ohio into northeast Kentucky will continue to push slowly east through this evening. The front will stall along just west the Appalachians while high pressure builds into the Great Lakes, keeping most of the area dry from Thursday through the weekend. Despite high pressure and more temperate dewpoints moving in behind the front, should still be some areas of river valley fog after midnight.
Currently, a large area of low pressure is centered across eastern Montana, southern Saskatchewan, and far western North Dakota, with a frontal boundary oriented northeast to southwest. Temperatures along the MT/ND border are in the mid 80s, expected to rise to the low 90s, while low cloud cover across parts of central North Dakota has really hindered daytime heating. On Thursday, the upper-level ridge becomes centered over the Northern Plains with the same frontal boundary from today becoming oriented much more west to east through the center of North Dakota. As upper level ridging continues through the weekend, North Dakota will remain in a pretty typical summer weather pattern with warm temperatures and almost daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.
By the afternoon we're seeing the start of a wave approach from the southwest, rounding the upper high over the 4- Corners region. Elevated convection in the higher terrain west river will drift into the CWA during the evening, but CAMS suggest spotty coverage.
1220 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019 Dry conditions continue into Thursday as high pressure remains centered over Wisconsin. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today as we get into return flow on the western side of the high and winds become southeasterly. More cloud cover is expected today as high clouds develop from a vorticity maxima pivots around the core of the ridge to our southwest. Lingering high clouds should lead to a warmer night across much of central and southern Minnesota with highs generally in the low 60s expected. Do not believe this cloud cover to be nearly as widespread across western Wisconsin, where mostly clear skies and calm winds under the high would allow for lows to drop into the low 50s.
156 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 A cold front extending across the area will slowly move southeast through the day. The front will stall along the west side of the Appalachians while high pressure builds into the Great Lakes. Meanwhile high pressure center will build a little further east into the western Great Lakes. Mid level troughing remains.
A large area of high pressure remains parked over the Great Lakes region, which is also accompanied by a seasonable dry airmass. Temps will be a few degrees warmer than today, with highs around 80 degrees, and middle 70s along the lakeshore. There will also be a slight uptick in moisture, but conditions should remain rather comfortable with dew points in the low to middle 50s.
High High pressure will continue to dominate this period.
218 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 An extended stretch of quiet weather is expected to continue through this weekend as high pressure settles in.
The upper high saga continues. 595dm upper high, now centered over NE NM and the northwestern Panhandles, will continue to head just a bit farther east through Thursday afternoon. Despite the best efforts of the ridge to squash precipitation chances, an area of light showers has developed across SE CO.
/issued 219 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019/ Hot and dry will be the rule through the first part of the weekend as the region remains under the influence of a large upper ridge, currently anchored over eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. The upper ridge and associated easterly to northeasterly flow aloft will mitigate storm chances the next few days (aside from isolated potential in the higher elevations of the Davis Mountains this afternoon), while southerly to southeasterly surface flow will keep low level moisture in place, yielding slightly humid days and mild nights.
812 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 A cold front and upper level trough will move into the area today. The front and trough will then stall in our vicinity for the remainder of the week and into the weekend. The synoptic cold front and upper trough are still to the west, with scattered shower and thunderstorm development noted over West Virginia and Pennsylvania.
Upper troughing will persist across mid state region with little if any sfc features of note after weak sfc frontal passage this afternoon expected. Broke out a late afternoon zone grouping for late afternoon convection mainly across srn and the higher elevations of Cumberland Plateau Region. A second upper low system still looks like it will move across central Canada and keep upper level troughing over the eastern half of the contiguous U. The best chance of shwrs/tstms will be on Sun as it still looks like a weak upper level disturbance moves thru eastern side of trough. There is a low level trough off to our southeast.
Plan view progs show the pesky midlevel deformation axis that was responsible for dense cumulus field today to be shunted to the south of the state line by the high pressure. Given the expected strong marine push as northeast flow fills in tonight around the eastern periphery of building high pressure, it stands to reason that some marine stratus or fog may manifest for areas north of I-69, though confidence is marginal at best. Otherwise high pressure and mostly sunny skies dominate through the end of the work week with temperatures near climatological average values.
Updated at 320 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 A large upper high continues to sit over the southwestern Plains with a large ridge flowing north of this high. This is providing the Ohio Valley with northwest flow overhead that continues to push the weak cold front through eastern and southern Kentucky. Tomorrow, the north wind from the cold front and heavier cloud cover stretching from the Bluegrass towards the west will help limit temperatures to the low to mid 80s.
We are not expecting to see any drier or cooler conditions with the front, but it is helping to provide some focus and lift for much needed for most daytime thunderstorm development. The upper level ridge remains highly amplified over the Rockies with a trough stretched through the Appalachians and East Coast. A boundary associated with the main trough axis will remain stationary across Georgia and Central to Southern AL, providing a general focus for increase rain/thunderstorms each afternoon.
An upper level trough axis will remain west of the region with an upper ridge off the southeast coast and over the Desert Southwest.
High pressure remains in control of the weather across the CWA today. Expect clouds to dissipate over northern Illinois this evening and with light to calm winds forecast, went on the cooler side of guidance for lows tonight. Expect similar highs to Wednesday, with values in the lower 80s area wide. Upper ridge to remain over the four corners region, with the active storm track remaining just to our southwest.
High pressure over the Great Lakes will keep our region high and dry into Thursday night.
Favorable boating conds as a ridge axis over the W Atlc generates a light to gentle E/SE breeze acrs the region. Southeast winds around the Atlantic ridge will become easterly and increase some as a tropical wave axis lifts though the Bahamas.
903 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 A cold front extending across central Ohio into northeast Kentucky will continue to push slowly east through this evening. The front will stall along just west the Appalachians while high pressure builds into the Great Lakes, keeping most of the area dry from Thursday through the weekend. Despite high pressure and more temperate dewpoints moving in behind the front, should still be some areas of river valley fog after midnight.
644 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019 Active weather expected over the next several days as area remains positioned within the confluence of a mid-level high to the west and upper trough over the east.
733 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 A cold front extending across central Ohio into northeast Kentucky will continue to push slowly east through this evening. The front will stall along just west the Appalachians while high pressure builds into the Great Lakes, keeping most of the area dry from Thursday through the weekend. Despite high pressure and more temperate dewpoints moving in behind the front, should still be some areas of river valley fog after midnight.
Latest model guidance shows the large-scale height pattern will change very little during the next seven days, with an upper high centered roughly over New Mexico, and weak troughing taking place over the NERN PAC.
451 PM MDT Wed Jul 31 2019 20Z upper level analysis has ridge over the southwestern and south central CONUS with trofs over the Pacific Northwest and across the Great Lakes area. At the surface, weak low pressure is located across southern Manitoba with trailing boundaries across the central Dakotas and across northern Montana. Upper level pattern varies little over the next several days as high pressure resides across the central and southern Rockies.
848 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 A cold front and upper level trough will move into the area today. The front and trough will then stall in our vicinity for the remainder of the week and into the weekend. The synoptic cold front and upper trough are still to the west, with scattered shower and thunderstorm development noted over West Virginia and Pennsylvania.
The upper level pattern impacting the central Gulf coast region will be a large mid/upper level high centered in the Four Corners to southern Rockies region and a shear axis/trough extending from the eastern U. states to a meandering upper low over the north central/central Gulf of Mexico. Confidence in subtle day to day changes in rain chances is not too high with the weak northerly flow aloft and the trough/shear axis that will drift from just east of the forecast area to over eastern portion of the area at times through the weekend.
925 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019 Some shower and thunderstorm activity has developed across SW MO this evening on the periphery of the upper ridge.
The high pressure system responsible for this monsoonal flow of moisture into the southwest is expected to move eastward. As such, this moisture will move into our forecast area by late tonight/Thursday contributing to more widespread showers and storms as the flow moves north while sliding further eastward around the high.
Have also lowered temps to reflect the cooler temps in place from the afternoon convection. Generally easterly flow in place for the next few days as weak high pressure ridges across the area.
628 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019 High pressure centered over the upper peninsula of Michigan today will migrate slightly southeastward over the upcoming day, maintaining the relatively dry air mass and subsident circulation aloft over central IL for dry conditions. Temperatures will also be slightly below normal, especially at night, when clear skies, low dewpoints, and light winds will allow the lows to fall efficiently. High Thursday expected to reach the low 80s across central and southeast Illinois. High pressure should remain through the weekend with a stationary frontal zone draped from the central Plains to the lower Mississippi valley keeping associated convection closer to that zone and away from central IL.
739 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 An extended stretch of quiet weather is expected to continue through this weekend as high pressure settles in.
High pressure centered over the upper peninsula of Michigan today will migrate slightly southeastward over the upcoming day, maintaining the relatively dry air mass and subsident circulation aloft over central IL for dry conditions. Temperatures will also be slightly below normal, especially at night, when clear skies, low dewpoints, and light winds will allow the lows to fall efficiently. High Thursday expected to reach the low 80s across central and southeast Illinois. High pressure should remain through the weekend with a stationary frontal zone draped from the central Plains to the lower Mississippi valley keeping associated convection closer to that zone and away from central IL.
/issued 319 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019/ Despite the fact that we are pretty much under the center of the ridge, and will be for the next few days, a CU field has developed thanks to moisture trapped in the H7-5 layer and afternoon heat.
However it is fairly clear now with temperatures back into the low 80s and dew points in the mid 60s to low 70s. However, the sun will be setting by then and the low level jet and 850mb warm advection is not that impressive. Think most activity will diminish by late evening, but some of the high resolution models show a shower or weak storm lingering into the overnight hours up along the Canadian border. The high resolution models have some convection entering the KDVL area later in the evening, which makes sense given cells starting to form in southern Manitoba.
Mostly clear skies are expected tonight into Thursday morning, with high pressure overhead. Highs Thursday should be in the lower 80s inland, with upper 70s lakeside. High High pressure will continue to dominate this period.
The high pressure system responsible for this monsoonal flow of moisture into the southwest is expected to move eastward. As such, this moisture will move into our forecast area by late tonight/Thursday contributing to more widepsread showers and storms as the flow moves north while sliding further eastward around the high.
A cold front has finally almost made it across Middle Tennessee, as winds have turned north and lower dew points are filtering in. There is a low level trough off to our southeast.
402 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019 Active weather expected over the next several days as area remains positioned within the confluence of a mid-level high to the west and upper trough over the east.
/22/ Late afternoon through Thursday: The low level trough axis across northern portions of the forecast area has provided sufficient moisture convergence/focus for isolated to scattered storms to develop this afternoon in spite of an increasingly harsh environment in the mid levels associated with the strengthening subtropical ridge. For Thursday, the greater diurnal convective precipitation coverage will shift slightly farther east/south in association with the low level trough, and there may be a fairly sharp gradient on the northwest side of this coverage given the influence of a strengthening subtropical ridge over the ArkLaMiss Delta region.
929 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 A cold front settles into the region overnight, then weakens and stalls over the region for the latter part of the week. Remaining unsettled through the forecast period, as the upper trough lingers to the W, with the ridge offshore.
A nearly stationary mid and upper level low over the east central Gulf of Mexico, while a tropical wave over the central Bahamas moves slowly west northwestward and across our region this afternoon through Friday, before exiting into the Southeast Gulf of Mexico Friday night. This low pressure systems will be lift northeastward into the northern half of the Sunshine State early this weekend. In wake of low pressure lifting northeastward and offshore of the northeast Florida coast, a high pressure cells will build across South Florida and our region through the period.
335 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019 A large upper level ridge of high pressure currently centered across the southern rockies and high plains will be the main weather influence for west Texas and southeast New Mexico through Friday.
315 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019 An upper high has settled overhead and will bring with it continued thickness increases and hot temperatures. Tomorrow's highs will be a degree or 2 warmer despite the high beginning its retreat westward (though not far westward).
Latest water vapor imagery showing the Four Corners high over the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle this afternoon with ridge axis extending up into eastern Colorado up into eastern Montana.
The upper level ridge remains to the west of the area this afternoon, leaving the region in an upper level northwest flow pattern. Cloud cover has limited heating across much of the area, with temperatures currently in the lower to middle 80s across much of the area.
Light north to northwesterly winds today will usher in dry Canadian air, and temperatures will be several degrees cooler, with valley highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. We'll see the sfc anticyclone centered over the northern Great Lakes region build eastward, yielding synoptically quiescent conditions through the near term period and PoPs NIL. Likewise, temperatures will be cooler than recent days and very near seasonable levels for Aug 1st; valley highs will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s this afternoon. With sfc anticyclone translating ewd to nrn NY during the pre- dawn hours Friday, will see light and variable winds and excellent radiational cooling tonight. Lows in the low-mid 50s for the Champlain Valley and St.
1159 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019 Active weather expected over the next several days as area remains positioned within the confluence of a mid-level high to the west and upper trough over the east.
A surface frontal boundary marked the southern extent of the high, extending from near Lake Winnipeg southwestward across northwestern ND to southeastern Montana, then turning northwestward to southern Alberta. At upper levels, the apex of a large ridge extended into the western Dakotas/eastern Wyoming and Montana, into the Canadian Prairie provinces. Meanwhile various upper level impulses are forecast to move eastward through the upper ridge. As upper level ridging continues through the weekend, North Dakota will remain in a typical summer weather pattern with warm and humid conditions and periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms.
However, the ridging that's been in control the past few days will begin to move away to our south and east. This means less dry air aloft today and thus should not see as dry conditions this afternoon (RH around 35% at the driest rather than in the low to mid 20s% like yesterday). Upper pattern consists of a 500 mb trough on the west coast, a deep trough over the eastern U. and a ridge across the Rockies and plains 00z Fri. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a deep trough over the ern half of the U. and a ridge across the Rockies 12z Sun.
340 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 A cold front will stall across SE New England today before washing out. High pressure will build into the region tonight and Friday with much lower humidity.
Presently forecasting highs in the lower 80s, though if cloud cover is more extensive than expected, could see temperatures a little cooler than this.
High pressure will continue to dominate the areas weather with dry conditions tonight. and adjusted the overnight temperatures that are forecast to fall into the 60s with 50s in the higher elevations and some 40s.
246 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 High pressure will build in from the west today and will shift offshore southeast of the region on Friday.
However, the ridging that's been in control the past few days will begin to move away to our south and east. This means less dry air aloft today and thus should not see as dry conditions this afternoon (RH around 35% at the driest rather than in the low to mid 20s% like yesterday). As has been well-advertised, blocking ridge centered over the Southwestern U. Sporadic PoP chances persist into the weekend, again mostly being driven diurnally as one weak perturbation after another rides the periphery of said ridge.
/Issued 925 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019/ Some shower and thunderstorm activity has developed across SW MO this evening on the periphery of the upper ridge.
254 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019 High pressure bringing another night of clear skies and light winds with early morning temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Today and tonight: High pressure will remain anchored from the Great Lakes into IA and IL. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s. As the ground dries out from lack of rain the prospects of warmer/cooler during the day/night over what the models indicate will slowly increase. high confidence Quiet, dry and warm conditions will be seen across the area as high pressure remains over the Great Lakes.
143 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019 A cold front will stall across SE New England late tonight and Thursday before washing out. Showers confined to south of New Eng this evening and CAMs indicate risk for a few showers overnight will be along the south coast as weak cold front moves to SE New Eng. Thursday the trough axis crosses SNE and the cold front hangs up near Cape Cod as it becomes parallel to the zonal steering flow.
Sunny skies and calm winds are expected to continue for today and Friday as high pressure remains over the area. Expect highs to be in the low 80s with 70s closer to Lake Michigan.
Tonight: Most areas should see a quiet night, albeit a bit warmer. It's possible given cooler southeast wind fetch, that any stratus develop could hamper temperatures further. Also to note is the split in model guidance with several models featuring much cooler temperatures likely due to increased moisture. Again, it's likely that PoPs are much too broad given the setup, but given the high moisture content and weak stability, the exact forecast placement of precipitation development is low.