Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure continues to dominate across the region this evening with mostly clear skies to prevail. Chattanooga Airport, TN 77 52 75 57 77 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 75 50 75 55 77 / 0 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 75 49 76 55 78 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 73 44 73 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 0.
Upper level ridging continues across the central United States maintaining the nice weather throughout the region. This blocking pattern halts most weather disturbances from reaching our area. However, the dominant cooler high pressure to our east keeps temperatures relatively low. Most of the influx of warmer air is occurring at mid levels capping our region further curtailing any precipitation development. Long range models hint a pattern shift toward the coming weekend when a large trough digs across the western US. At the moment, models continue holding the ridge over the central US redirecting upper level flow resulting in aerial stagnation on the east side of the Rockies. Guidance shows Beta attempting to migrate west across Texas; however, it is quickly halted by the blocking pattern.
450 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020 Under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and light northeast winds of 5 to 10 mph, temperatures are primarily in the lower 80s along the island chain. A pronounced mid and upper level vorticity lobe extending from a trough of low pressure offshore of the mid Atlantic States, and across extreme South Florida into the Northwest Gulf of Mexico early this morning, will drop southwestward and cross our region late this afternoon through most of tonight.
338 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 High pressure ridge behind an exiting upper level low will bring mainly dry and warm conditions today. Yesterday's upper level low will skirt across the northern part of the state this morning, perhaps brining some clouds and an isolated shower. Weak ridging then builds in behind this feature today and brings dry conditions with warm temperatures in the 70s to low 80s. Dry conditions should continue for tonight under continued weak ridging.
Rainfall rates may not be overly excessive given the low instability, but the high PWAT airmass combined with the long duration lift should result in a general 1-3 inch rainfall event across southeast OK into western AR, with local amounts around 4-5 inches possible.
201 AM MDT Mon Sep 21 2020 Upper ridging dominates the weather pattern through Tuesday, bringing with in downsloping winds that will help to return warm and dry conditions. Temperatures expected to return to the upper 80s and dropping humidities dropping down to the low to mid teens by Tuesday. A weak dry cold front looks to shift downslope winds to the north late Tuesday, but winds with/behind it will be relatively light.
A ridge of high pressure is situated to our east underneath a much broader area of higher pressure aloft.
359 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020 High pressure will provide mostly sunny skies and dry conditions through mid-week. Warmer temperatures and an increasing chance of showers will arrive late this week into the weekend as low pressure approaches from the central U. Lows will drop into the low to mid 40s.
Overnight lows will be a bit warmer tonight, with 50s across the Plains, while the higher mountain valleys fall into the mid 30s to 40s. high pressure over the Desert Southwest will shift northward during the day with weak energy lifting north over Western Colorado by the afternoon.
Temperatures were ranging from the low to mid 70s across most of the area with some locations of far western MO and southeast KS in the upper 70s. Dewpoints were still quite low in the low to mid 50s in most locations. High pressure ridge axis remains over the central U.
After which, high pressure ridging will build over the forecast area beginning tonight continuing into early Tuesday. A cold front will move across the forecast area late in the day Tuesday bringing a wind shift to the north.
Despite fewer clouds than 24 hours ago, temps this evening were running a degree or two warmer. A weak cu field has developed over the area, associated with a weak surface pressure trough. Tranquil weather will persist on Monday as both surface and upper level high pressure remain over the area. Tropical Storm Beta is expected to make landfall along the Texas Gulf Coast Monday afternoon and slowly lift northeast across the Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the workweek.
Locations where any training manages to set up will have the highest risk of flash flooding, and the Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for roughly the southern half of our forecast area.
High pressure remains in place aloft and an upper trough and associated surface cold front will stay north of the area tonight and tomorrow.
The elevated smoke layer appears to be thin enough this afternoon to allow temperatures to already warm into the low 70s, have nudged up highs slightly to account for any additional warming this afternoon. Petr 324 PM CDT Persistent eastern CONUS ridging and the presence of Tropical Storm Beta in the northwest Gulf will continue to limit moisture return into the upper Midwest through most of the forecast period.
355 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 Warming trend is in store for the upcoming week, as southerly surface winds push some warmer and moister air into the area.
The main weather pattern continues to be a large upper level ridge over the central U. At the surface, a trough sits over western Nebraska, which will remain in the area through Tuesday. The upper level ridge pattern will maintain its strength over the area through the rest of the workweek. Temperatures will be in the 80s for most of the area, possibly the low 90s in southwest Nebraska.
RAP analysis had an upper ridge extending from the Southwest U. Southerly winds between 10-20 mph are expected as low pressure tracks across southern Ontario.
523 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020 Influence of a strong high pressure system will maintain VFR conditions today while winds turn SSE to S, around 10 knots this afternoon. A large high pressure system centered to the east of the area will settle/reform to the south and provide a lengthy period of south to southwest flow this week. For today, southeast flow will persist with the high still off to the east. This will lead to the "coolest" day of the week with the highs around 70 (warmest conditions should set up from the Flint area on into the Saginaw Valley and also far southeast portions of the area away from Lake Erie.
855 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020 Dry weather with gradually warming temperature can be expected this week under high pressure. Previous Discussion: High pressure across most of the Eastern CONUS should maintain dry weather and sunny skies today. High pressure is progged to move south across the Ohio and Tennessee valley region through mid week, maintaining dry weather and mostly clear skies.
A robust mid/upper ridge is positioned over the Ohio Valley, and the 12z ILN sounding shows a substantial warm nose/subsidence inversion between 800-700 mb.
High pressure ridge behind an exiting upper level low will bring mainly dry and warm conditions today. Yesterday's upper level low will skirt across the northern part of the state this morning, perhaps brining some clouds and an isolated shower. Weak ridging then builds in behind this feature today and brings dry conditions with warm temperatures in the 70s to low 80s. Dry conditions should continue for tonight under continued weak ridging.
1043 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020 High pressure will allow dry weather with a gradual warming temperature this week. High pressure centered over southern Quebec will slowly start to build south and westward through the next 24 hours.
Temps will be above average again, with highs in the 80s to lower 90s across the southeast plains, with mostly 70s in the high valleys, and upper 60s to lower 70s in Teller County. Overnight low temps should be in the upper 40s and lower 50s over the plains, with upper 30s and 40s in the high valleys.
642 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020 High pressure will provide mostly sunny skies and dry conditions through mid-week. Warmer temperatures and an increasing chance of showers will arrive late this week into the weekend as low pressure approaches from the central U. Lows will drop into the low to mid 40s.
However, this will most likely remain confined to the higher terrain along the CO/WY border.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 77 51 76 57 77 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 75 48 74 55 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 75 48 75 55 77 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 74 42 74 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 0.
This weather pattern will allow a slight increase in PWAT values, resulting in orographic convection over the higher terrain in the afternoon hours. Afternoon convection will gradually diminish over the higher terrain around sunset. With additional moisture, MLCAPE values will creep upward to around 300-700 across the higher terrain, and convection will likely get off to a slightly earlier start on Tuesday. Up to a tenth of an inch of liquid or so will be possible in the higher terrain. Some shower activity may make it into the lower valleys by the late afternoon and early evening as well.
Highs today will be in the low to mid 70s. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, rising slightly above normal, into the low to mid 70s. Overnight lows will still be cool, but also warmer, in the mid 40s. The upper ridge holds on for Tuesday, though a very weak northern stream cold front attempts to break through.
639 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020 High pressure over New England will ridge westward across the region through the day.
330 AM MDT Mon Sep 21 2020 Warming trend begins today as high pressure builds over eastern Idaho. Not expecting much in the way of cloud cover as high temperatures in the lower 80s are expected across the Magic Valley and lower Snake Plain with mid to upper 70s across upper Snake and highlands.
upper ridging from the Great Lakes to the Gulf will continue to give our area dry weather through the period. Cooler temperatures and low dew points will be maintained by low level easterly winds ridging down the eastern seaboard and along the Appalachians.
644 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020 High pressure will allow dry weather with a gradual warming temperature this week. High pressure covering the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic will bring fair weather today.
On the last full day of Summer, strong Canadian high pressure extending down much of the Eastern Seaboard will continue to result in Fall-like weather conditions. The center of the high pressure will begin to weak tonight as it builds southward, becoming centered over the central and southern Appalachians Tuesday morning. Upstairs, dry NWLY flow aloft will continue as a pair of mid-level anticyclones merge over the Deep South. Lows in the lower to mid 40s north to upper 40s south. High pressure along the east coast will slowly weaken, but remain locked over the Appalachians and TN/OH Valley region.
Dry and pleasant conditions will continue today and tonight as high pressure remains centered east of our region.
It will be a little cooler than normal through Tuesday, with greater coverage of coastal clouds nights and mornings.
Overall instability is weak, however, may still see some high based showers and isold storms, mainly over the higher terrain, along and south of I-70 this aftn.
This too should transition eastward trailing upper low in Manitoba. Concerns and impacts for the short term will revolve around upper low lifting NE across Manitoba today. Winds will decouple quickly with sunset with a weak ridge of high pressure moving across the northern plains overnight. Upper 40s and low 50s expected by Tuesday morning before another day of full solar and waa/thermal ridge axis brings temps into the 80s for much of the area.
906 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020 A large area of dry high pressure will cover much of the eastern United States tonight through Tuesday.
High pressure continues to dominate the area with no rain to be had.
Dry weather is on track for most of the week, the next chance of showers will be late Tues in the far west as an upper trough advects across the region with an associated sfc cool front.
The central part of the CONUS remains under a mid-level ridge, placed between Tropical Storm Beta off the TX coast and a trough in the Northern Plains and southern Canada. Could see temps being a few degrees cooler than currently forecast since 850mb temps in OK are cooler and that air gets advected north with continued southerly flow; however 850mb flow weakens slightly into the daytime hours so this should only be a minor impact.
332 AM PDT Mon Sep 21 2020 Continued dry and slightly warmer through Monday then little changes are expected through the rest of the week, with temperatures near seasonal averages.
On Tuesday, the front will start to return north as a warm front with some increase in LLM and also instability.
634 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 Warming trend is in store for the upcoming week, as southerly surface winds push some warmer and moister air into the area.
954 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020 High pressure over New England will ridge westward across the region through the day.
536 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020 Dry weather with gradually warming temperature can be expected this week under high pressure. High pressure across most of the Eastern CONUS should maintain dry weather and sunny skies today. High pressure is progged to move south across the Ohio and Tennessee valley region through mid week, maintaining dry weather and mostly clear skies.
Winds continue to be elevated, especially with the forecast area between Beta and high pressure to the north and surge values continue to hold at between 2 and 3 feet at both Sabine Pass and Calcasieu Pass.
Expect isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms mostly over the higher terrain of northern Arizona both Monday and Tuesday.
This high was cold and dry for mid to late September with temperatures in the lower 20s over portions of NY, VT, and ME even at 10z (before daybreak). The high extended down the eastern seaboard deep into Florida and the NE Gulf of Mexico. The high will continue to dominate with cool and dry weather today and tonight. High pressure along the east coast will slowly weaken, but remain locked over the Appalachians and TN/OH Valley region.
Cooler temperatures will exist off the caprock due to the increased moisture. Upper ridging will continue to be the main story for the west Texas region during the forecast period. The remnants of Beta will stay mostly to the east of the FA going into mid week as ridging sets up from southwest to northeast across the central US.
TS Beta is expected to continue moving WNW into the mid to upper TX coastline as 500 mb ridging prevails over the central and eastern Gulf. Since the low level winds will generally blow out to the W-NW with the center of Beta positioned to our NE.
313 AM MDT Mon Sep 21 2020 Upper ridging across the region will lead to a return to dry and warm conditions through the midweek. Ensemble guidance is suggestive of the ridge shifting downstream late in the week, allowing a more active weather pattern to potential set up as a new trough arrives from the west.
644 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020 A large area of dry high pressure will cover much of the eastern United States tonight through Tuesday.
Concerns and impacts for the short term will revolve around upper low lifting NE across Manitoba today. Winds will decouple quickly with sunset with a weak ridge of high pressure moving across the northern plains overnight. Upper 40s and low 50s expected by Tuesday morning before another day of full solar and waa/thermal ridge axis brings temps into the 80s for much of the area.
The upper ridge that has been dominating the weather picture over the central Rockies and Plains has been flattened out by a strong disturbance upper disturbance moving east out of the northern Rockies. A general weakening of the upper ridge was also occurring across the southern Plains as Tropical Storm Beta moves onshore.
Temps will generally be in the lower 70s. The upper level remnants of Beta will be absorbed by a developing upper low over the southern plains that will track through the Mid-South Wed/Thu.
Lack of steering flows should keep convection anchored to the higher elevations with little propagation. weak energy drifting under building high pressure over the Four Corners region will continue to spark showers and thunderstorms over the Mountains into this evening. Overnight lows will fall into the 50s across the Plains, while the high valleys see upper 30s to 40s. high pressure will shift eastward throughout the day with more southwesterly flow aloft filling in across Colorado by the afternoon.
Dew points were still in the low to mid 50s. Upper level ridge was centered over the Tennessee valley, but extended back to the northwest into the forecast area.
301 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020 Canadian high pressure will slowly moderate the next few days. The center of high pressure will begin to draw nearer on Tuesday allowing the winds to ease.
123 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020 High pressure will continue to dominate the region, providing dry and cool conditions through the middle of the week.
Weak ridging aloft will bring another warm day on Tuesday with southerly flow averaging 10 to 15 mph, a few gusts around 20 mph.
Persistent wind gusts into the mid to upper 20 mph range and RHs tanking into the low teens and double digits will aid in any fire spread this afternoon as the atmosphere takes a zonal ride through the region.
Very subtle low pressure area was over extreme SW AZ early this morning, with clouds and radar returns gradually increasing on its eastern side. There is some disagreement among the high resolution models whether any storms will be able to pop farther west over the Mojave Preserve and/or the Spring and Sheep Range, so painted small PoPs there.
947 AM MDT Mon Sep 21 2020 Lift on the tail end of a short wave trough over Nebraska and weak low level converge is producing some showers over eastern Colorado. Overall instability is weak, however, may still see some high based showers and isold storms, mainly over the higher terrain, along and south of I-70 this aftn.
Weak lee troughing will continue through the overnight period. For Tuesday, the lee troughing pattern will continue.
134 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020 Dry weather with gradually warming temperature can be expected this week under high pressure. Another pleasant day is underway across the Upper Ohio River Valley and Allegheny Mountains region with high pressure in place. Most of the area will fall into the lower 40s and upper 30s. NWP guidance is slightly warmer than previous nights, so chose not to issue a frost advisory tonight. A gradually warming trend is likely as weak warm advection resumes on the west side of high pressure in the low- levels, with each subsequent day likely being a slightly warmer than the preceding day.
312 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 (Issued 315 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020) Tonight through Tuesday night: This period will remain quiet with the high pressure in the northeast US weakening and thus decreasing the pressure gradient across the area and in turn weakening our winds. However winds will remain southerly with weak high pressure remaining over the Ohio River Valley region. This will bring mostly zonal flow through Tuesday morning with the ridge starting to build back in by Tuesday night.
Kuroski (Issued 351 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020) Today through Tuesday: Quiet weather will continue through Tuesday under the influence of high pressure will to the east. Southerly winds on the western side of the high will continue to bring a milder airmass into southern Wisconsin the next couple days, with highs into the upper 70s by Tuesday.
137 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020 High pressure will provide mostly sunny skies and dry conditions through mid-week. Warmer temperatures and an increasing chance of showers will arrive late this week into the weekend as low pressure approaches from the central U. Very quiet weather continues under sprawling high pressure centered over New England. Strong diabatic heating of a very dry boundary layer will push temperatures into the lower and middle 70s, with dewpoints mixing back into the middle and upper 30s later this afternoon. Lows will drop into the low to mid 40s.
This will lead to slightly warmer overnight lows than last night. Forecast lows in the lower 50s are at the low end of guidance, but close to climatology for late September. Dry and warm weather will continue for most of the workweek, followed by low chances for rain with a cold frontal passage over the weekend.
A few storms may move off the high terrain across northeast NM by the late afternoon. A weak weather system moving through New Mexico today and Tuesday will increase the chances for a few showers and thunderstorms near the higher terrain.
113 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020 High pressure over New England will ridge westward across the region through the day.
321 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 The nearly zonal upper flow pattern currently over the region will give way to weak ridging late tonight into the day Tuesday before a more zonal flow returns Tuesday night. At the surface, weak high pressure will remain over the area tonight and Tuesday. A low pressure system and associated frontal boundary will then approach, with the low becoming centered over the South Dakota by late Tuesday night. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 50s, with highs on Tuesday in the 80s.
On Tuesday, high pressure will then stack at the mid and lower levels with upper ridging extending northward from Fl.
High pressure continues to dominate the area keeping sunshine present and temperatures comfortable. As the low deepens, a moisture and kinematic boundary forms across the central United States, enhanced by the attempted westward movement of the remnants of TS Beta. A cold front pushes through the area over the weekend bringing our next chance of precipitation and resetting temperatures and dew points to fall like levels. This trough will push in another round of calm weather and cooler temperatures into the region.
Geopotential heights at 500 mb were at 592 dam over middle TN this morning, indicative of a seasonally strong ridge (500 mb heights > 90th percentile). This ridge will weaken over the next 24 hours, allowing TS Beta to eventually lift northeast toward MS later this week. This trend will continue on Tuesday as warm, moist air lifts poleward over the cooler surface air mass. The cloud cover and light rain will depress max temperatures with highs generally in the lower 70s.
250 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 With H5 high pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley, and continued advection of a drier airmass, a very pleasant night is in store for us with clear skies, calming winds, and comfortable temperatures that will fall into the 60s shortly after sunset. Will need to enjoy this first taste of fall while it lasts, as a warmer and more humid airmass will soon be on its way. The persistent high pressure aloft will begin to break down and will slowly drift southeast, and remnants from Tropical Storm Beta will begin to move north from the Texas Gulf Coast toward the Mississippi River.
On the last full day of Summer, strong Canadian high pressure extending down much of the Eastern Seaboard will continue to result in Fall-like conditions. The center of the high pressure will begin to weak tonight as it builds southward, becoming centered over the central and southern Appalachians Tuesday morning. Upstairs, dry NWLY flow aloft will continue as a pair of mid-level anticyclones merge over the Deep South. Lows in the lower north to upper 40s south.
1123 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020 High pressure will provide mostly sunny skies and dry conditions through mid-week. Warmer temperatures and an increasing chance of showers will arrive late this week into the weekend as low pressure approaches from the central U. Very quiet weather continues under sprawling high pressure centered over New England. Strong diabatic heating of a very dry boundary layer will push temperatures into the lower and middle 70s, with dewpoints mixing back into the middle and upper 30s later this afternoon. Lows will drop into the low to mid 40s.