Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Lowered highs a few degrees for today, but still think we will recover nicely from the morning cold, reaching the teens in northwestern MN and near freezing along our western border. High temperatures today will be warmer to the west, with mid- 30s in the Devils Lake Basin, and high teens near the Mississippi Headwaters. Much warmer temperatures are expected Tuesday as southerly winds become southwesterly, then westerly, remaining breezy during the afternoon. The 500mb pattern will initially feature a western ridge/eastern trough. The main challenge will be how fast the ridging shifts east into the Northern Plains.
(This evening through Tuesday) A weakening upper low was over far west Texas just northwest of Odessa this afternoon. The low will move northeast across the northern Big Country early tonight, and to The Red River near Sherman by 6 AM Tuesday. With north winds diminishing, expect temperatures to drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s for lows early Tuesday morning across the western half of our area, and into the lower to mid 30s in our far eastern counties.
/TW/ Prior discussion below: Today through tonight: A cold front will continue to push south across the forecast area today, and eventually move into the northern Gulf of Mexico by this evening, where it is forecast to stall. Rainfall rates are not all that impressive early this morning in the watch area with observations showing up to half an inch/hr at most, but given the high precipitable water airmass (> 1.
310 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021 One cold front has just cleared the region while a second cold front will cross the region later this evening. High pressure will then build in for Tuesday.
As of 1730z/11:30 AM CST, a cold front was positioned west-to-east across the Rio Grande Valley, moving south/southeast. Winds are expected to increase out of the north behind the cold front, with wind gusts around 25 to 30 knots this afternoon. Veering winds and showers will occur at the aerodromes courtesy of the passage of a cold front. /issued 345 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): The most significant event in this portion of the forecast will be the passage of a cold front. Near normal temperatures today will be tempered to below normal levels tonight and Tuesday due to the passage of the cold front.
151 PM MST Mon Mar 1 2021 Current surface map shows this mornings backdoor front shifting back eastward as a warm front. Upper level ridge over the Rockies flattens tonight as clipper moves through southern Canada. Will also be windy across northwest South Dakota Tuesday behind surface trof. Snow cover around the KPHP area will keep that area 5-10 degrees cooler than surrounding areas.
This could keep temperatures a bit warmer than the suggested blends, so have increased lows by a couple of degrees (upper 30s north to around 40 south). On Tuesday, the upper low now entering TX will advance quickly through the lower MS Valley. With the rain and clouds influencing temperatures greatly by offsetting modest warm air advection, will go closer to cooler raw temperature guidance both Tuesday into Tuesday night.
High temperatures tomorrow are forecast to reach into the low 40's for almost the entire CWA with gusty SW winds pushing warm air into the region. With abundant sunshine expected this week, in conjunction with the higher sun angle of March, daily high temperatures much above normal are likely for the entire forecast period, and afternoon high temps may rise above their current forecasted value. With current water surface temperatures around 33 degrees F, afternoon high temperatures will be cooler and overnight lows milder near the lake.
A weak cold front will continue to slide through the area late this afternoon through this evening. Behind this front, high pressure will build back into the area with temperatures through tomorrow remain around normal. High pressure will continue to dominate the weather over the area through most of the week.
Ridge of high pressure over the region this morning with dry southwest flow aloft.
A low pressure will move parallel to the coast today, but looks to stay far enough offshore to keep the coast dry, but close enough to provide weak onshore wind.
The main upper trough is still to the west, entering West Texas now, and as this feature swings across North Texas tonight, we'll likely see additional showers develop across the region. The axis of high pressure will scoot across the region during the day Tuesday with northerly winds becoming more southerly by late in the day.
Infrared satellite imagery showed a crystal clear sky across SW Kansas at midday, as a closed midlevel cyclone passes well to our south into West Texas.
/issued 707 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021/ Mid Level ridging centered near the Yucatan Channel sprawls across the Gulf of Mexico while a ridge axis of high pressure stretches through north-central FL from the Atlantic to the Gulf this morning. These feature ease southward today as a short wave trough moving into the lower Mississippi Valley from the southern plains nudges a frontal boundary into north FL. Winds around 10 knots or so for the next couple of days as high pressure drifts south in advance of a cold front. The front moves south of the state as high pressure builds in by midweek with winds in 15 to 20 knot range possible.
Although wind gusts of greater than 40 knots are not expected to be widespread in the higher elevations, elected to issue a Wind Advisory there into the overnight hours due to the saturated soil making tree fall a bit more likely. Cannot rule out 50 MPH gusts on the highest peaks though. A mostly dry pattern is expected to continue through this period as surface ridging remains largely in control, with our CWA largely remaining between the northern and southern streams.
237 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 Upper level system responsible for today's light precipitation will move into the ArkLaTex leaving west Texas under the influence of a flat ridge. High pressure, developing over SE NM will move southeast allowing winds across the area to become light and variable late this evening.
233 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 Tonight and Tomorrow: A surface cold front has cleared the area early this afternoon with northerly winds and low-level cold air advection observed at all reporting sites. By tonight, a closed low will slide across the Southern Plains and then through the Lower Mississippi Valley tomorrow. 5" with the highest totals along and southeast of the Natchez Trace corridor. Temperatures will be raw with overnight lows dropping into the low to upper 40s and then struggling to rise during the day owing to expansive rainfall and low-level cold advection. High pressure at the surface and upper ridging aloft will prevail across the region through much of the week.
Dry weather will persist into tonight as high pressure settles in. Expect increasing high clouds on Tuesday as a compact upper low approaches from the southern Plains. As the low slides just south of the region, it will bring a slight chance of light rain to southern portions of southeast Missouri and western Kentucky late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Highs should reach the lower 50s on Tuesday, with lows near 30 Tuesday night. The upper levels will be characterized by generally northwest flow forecast to amplify through the week as an upper level ridge builds out west and a trough deepens in the east.
Cold front has pushed into southeast Kentucky this morning with strong cold advection ongoing across much of east Kentucky. Clouds will hold tough through the morning hours, but significantly drier air upstream should help to erode the sky cover this afternoon, especially as surface ridging spreads east into the region.
250 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021 The short term period starts off with a cut-off low over NM/TX/OK, and near-zonal flow aloft across the CWA. For the rest of today, isolated light showers will be a possibility as moisture interacts with a cold front pushing through the area. Tuesday morning lows will be cooler than previous nights -- in the mid-30s to upper 40s.
Ridge of high pressure over the region this morning with dry southwest flow aloft. A ridge of high pressure will be over the area with sct- bkn mid and high level clouds.
The closed low has shifted over southern New Mexico with ridging in place across Colorado. Current model guidance keeps highs in the upper 40s across the lower elevations with 30s in the mountains.
High pressure overhead today will slide southeast and allow winds to turn southerly late this afternoon and evening. Temperatures will reach their lows shortly after sunset, then rise overnight to the upper teens in western WI to around 30 near the Buffalo Ridge as winds increase.
A mid to upper trough to our WSW is currently only producing some clouds extending from west TX through SW OK. Elsewhere, skies will generally remain clear and by Tue morning temps should drop back below freezing along and west of I-44.
An upper trough centered over east-central Canada continues to gradually shift east across the Great Lakes Region early this morning as flow aloft becomes more northwesterly. Precipitation has pushed out of the area, though it is still ongoing further south and east along the system's expansive cold front. Clearing skies and brisk northwest winds has resulted in cooler temperatures this evening. Canadian high pressure sags southward later today, centering itself over northern Illinois/Indiana around midnight. Southwest flow will develop in the low levels and allow temperatures to warm up some by the middle of the week as warmer air advects back north. Highs Tuesday through the end of the week look to be warmer than normal with values in the upper 40s to 50s. Flow aloft becomes northwesterly by the end of the week as a ridge amplifies over the Plains states.
103 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021 A few rain showers will be over the area this afternoon and evening as a cold front moves through the area.
316 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021 Upper ridging now prominent from the southwest Gulf of Mexico into the Bahamas will gradually erode along its northern periphery as upstream troughing progresses from the Desert Southwest into the lower Mississippi Valley by Tuesday. Surface ridging should hold across our area for the short-term period, albeit weakening slightly with time as the trough approaches from the north. Warm temperatures will continue, however with the weaker wind regime inland areas should be a little "cooler" tonight (mid-upper 60s) while coastal areas remain in the lower 70s. This short wave squashes a 500mb ridge that has been over the area as a much broader 500 mb trough is over the eastern US.
Lighter winds and mostly clear skies developing over western counties will lead to a few remote areas of Nrn Val Verde and Edwards counties to see a morning low at freezing. There could be a pockets of the area north of I-10 that could threaten to reach freezing should the dew point temperatures become dry enough. For now, we'll stick to above freezing temps area-wide for Tuesday night.
An upper ridge building over the Intermountain NW will keep clear skies over the region today. Gusty easterly winds will blow along the I-84 corridor from Twin Falls to Baker City in response to high pressure centered over eastern Idaho. Surface winds 10-20kt with gusts to 30kt through the lower Snake Plain and Baker Valley.
1128 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 An upper ridge axis will extend over the Central and Southern Rockies today. Meanwhile, warmer temperatures will build across the northern and central High Plains. Highs were nudged upward a few degrees into the lower 50s across the central sandhills and southwest NE. Warmer 850mb temperatures from 4-8C will reside over the area. Even warmer Tuesday, as a southwest wind veers to the northwest in the afternoon. Highs were nudged to near the NBM 50th percentile with 60 to the low 60s forecast most areas.
Although we started the first day of meteorological spring with slightly cooler than normal air in the region, this wintry chill will be short lived. Southwest winds should cause localized enhancement of gusty winds near the MN Buffalo Ridge early Tuesday, perhaps gusting into the 30s.
An upper trough is approaching the area this morning and gusty winds are expected ahead of it. This trough will split, however, with the bulk of the energy and moisture being directed southward.
1124 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 * Elevated fire weather concerns Tuesday (north-central KS) Water vapor imagery this morning shows a well-defined upper low spinning over southern New Mexico. This low will eventually get kicked out across the Southern Plains later today through Tuesday, passing south of Kansas.
High pressure is expected to hold over the area for the balance of the week. Generally quiet weather expected during this period, as heights rise in response to a developing long wave ridge over the Plains. At the surface, high pressure will slowly drift through the area. A cutoff low, currently moving into west Texas, is progged by the models to stay well to the south of the local area, undercutting the developing ridge. Broad high pressure will be in place through the period with dry conditions expected.
254 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 Surface analysis this afternoon indicates a cold front stretching from the Appalachians back through the Southeast United States and back along the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. An upper level closed off low pressure system will start to approach the area Tuesday afternoon into the evening.
125 PM MST Mon Mar 1 2021 An upper ridge centered over the Rocky Mountains will flatten slightly over the next few days but rebound later in the week.
Conditions will turn sharply colder tonight with blustery northwest winds sending temperatures plummeting into the low teens and 20s with single digit wind chills. In the wake of this mornings leading cold FROPA, a secondary arctic front pushing southeast from the lower Great Lakes will bring the potential for isolated brief snow squalls across the northern and western Alleghenies between 4 and 10 PM. Temps will fall about 15 to 30 degrees from todays highs and bottom out in the low teens and 20s by daybreak Tuesday. Plenty of sunshine and subsiding winds will be provided courtesy of high pressure building into the area from the Ohio Valley.
200 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 (Issued 200 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021) Tonight through Tuesday: High pressure settles in with clear skies and light winds, so a chilly night in store. The high shifts to the Ohio Valley Tuesday as low pressure tracks north of Lake Superior.
High pressure will build across the region through Tuesday.
206 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 March in like a lamb as Canadian high pressure builds into the area from the northwest providing plenty of sunshine, along with northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. High pressure will be situated right over the dvn cwa. Lows will bottom out in the teens north where there is still snow cover, to the lower to mid 20s south with bare ground. Tuesday: The high pressure will shift to our east returning south to southwest winds to the cwa. A prolonged dry pattern continues through the upcoming weekend, as the CONUS will be dealing with a storm track well to the south, and by late week, this becomes a dominant upper ridge pattern over the Midwest.
242 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021 Lows will tumble into the teens tonight as high pressure settles in. As high pressure settles in overnight, nearly overhead, lows will tumble into the teens. With high pressure now to our east, southwesterly winds will provide a nice temperature recovery for the afternoon. Look for highs in the low-40s. Zonal flow aloft will give way to northwest flow locally later on this week as a towering ridge builds over the Rockies.
The dry weather pattern is due to the island chain being under the influence of the western periphery of the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. Temperatures in the island communities are in the upper 70s to the low 80s. Temperatures are expected to rise a few more degrees across the island chain, culminating with highs in the low to mid 80s. Winds are expected to continue to decrease as a trough over the eastern United States pushes the subtropical ridge eastward and causes the pressure gradient to relax. From synopsis, the Florida Keys remain in the periphery of the subtropical ridge.
1155 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 The low clouds in central sd this morning are expected to mix out as they move north into the afternoon. May have to bump the highs down a few degrees. Stratus has set up on the edges of some thermal packing as high pressure builds into the eastern Dakotas this morning. Warm air advection is expected to push in from the west late today as upper ridging builds over the Rockies.
247 PM MST Mon Mar 1 2021 A large scale ridge pattern encompassed areas from the High Plains westward.
Cold front is south of the terminals and over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Tight gradient as high pressure builds in and low pressure develops over the western Gulf. /issued 423 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021/ Cooler air has begun filtering into the region behind a cold front that is now moving off the coast. Temperatures at the start of the shift this morning were in the lower 60s north to middle 70s south, and acrs Acadiana reached the lower 80s by midday. PoPs will decrease from west to east during the day Tuesday as the upper trough axis slides east and drier air spreads into the region.
Winds across the ridges have steadily decreased over the last few hours with lesser mixing, so have cancelled the wind advisory. A mostly dry pattern is expected to continue through this period as surface ridging remains largely in control, with our CWA largely remaining between the northern and southern streams.
314 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 Dry conditions with warmer temperatures on the way. Unfortunately today the warmer temperatures are coming with a brisk south to southwest wind, so the farther north and east you are, the colder it is going to feel today. Low pressure is situated over Alberta Canada with a warm front into southwest North Dakota. We are currently in the lower to middle 50s over southwest North Dakota, west of the front, but still stuck in the teens over the far eastern portion of the CWA with wind chills around zero. The warm front will push through the forecast area tonight so lows over the Turtle mountains will be around 15 to 20 above tonight, instead of 15 to 20 below.
/22/ Tonight and Tomorrow: A surface cold front has cleared the area early this afternoon with northerly winds and low-level cold air advection observed at all reporting sites. By tonight, a closed low will slide across the Southern Plains and then through the Lower Mississippi Valley tomorrow. 5" with the highest totals along and southeast of the Natchez Trace corridor. Temperatures will be raw with overnight lows dropping into the low to upper 40s and then struggling to rise during the day owing to expansive rainfall and low-level cold advection. High pressure at the surface and upper ridging aloft will prevail across the region through much of the week.
416 PM MST Mon Mar 1 2021 Current surface map shows this mornings backdoor front shifting back eastward as a warm front. Upper level ridge over the Rockies flattens tonight as clipper moves through southern Canada. Will also be windy across northwest South Dakota Tuesday behind surface trof. Snow cover around the KPHP area will keep that area 5-10 degrees cooler than surrounding areas.
Otherwise, a cold front moves across the region mid- week, with some showers possible and winds approaching exercise caution levels.
245 PM MST Mon Mar 1 2021 An upper level ridge axis will be moving across Colorado tonight, with flow aloft becoming more westerly by Tuesday. With warmer temperatures of today, followed by the downsloping flow tonight and continued warm advection, will see moderated overnight lows, especially east of the Divide. Light winds, clear skies and the stable airmass will allow for strong inversions in the high mountain valleys. Another sunny day with temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees warmer is expected tomorrow, with stronger winds up near the WY and NE state borders as a weak front pushes down. Some areas of blowing snow are expected in the high mountain passes and down the eastern slopes of the Front Range Mountains and foothills in the morning, but winds will be decreasing through the day as well as the areas of blowing snow.
Conditions will gradually improve tomorrow as high pressure build into the forecast area. near 50 coast so quite a bit cooler than just a day ago. Temperatures on Tuesday will only warm to the mid 50s hampered by the cloud cover and over the west/southwestern areas where the clouds clear earlier highs could reach the lower 60s.
423 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 Cooler air has begun filtering into the region behind a cold front that is now moving off the coast. Temperatures at the start of the shift this morning were in the lower 60s north to middle 70s south, and acrs Acadiana reached the lower 80s by midday. PoPs will decrease from west to east during the day Tuesday as the upper trough axis slides east and drier air spreads into the region.
Cooler during the period, with minimum/maximum temperatures similar to the SREF ensemble mean values.
Synoptically speaking, we have a closed low over southeastern Canada and another just off the west coast. We are directly under a ridge of high pressure and with plenty of subsidence under said ridge, clear skies will continue overnight. For tomorrow, the ridge will shift further east as winds become more southwesterly allowing some warmer temperatures to move in.
Blustery northwest winds will send temperatures into the low teens and 20s with single digit wind chills. Temps will fall about 15 to 30 degrees from todays highs and bottom out in the low teens and 20s by daybreak Tuesday. Plenty of sunshine and subsiding winds will be provided courtesy of high pressure building into the area from the Ohio Valley.
Return flow will increase across the central US tonight, and become gusty tomorrow as a low pressure system moving into the Great Lakes region leads to an increasing gradient across the central Plains.
603 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021 A ridge of high pressure will gradually take control of area weather in the short term. A much cooler air mass will settle over the region tonight, which will make for a very cold night. Light winds and the clearing skies will set the stage for a decent ridge valley temperature split tonight, especially in our deeper and normally colder eastern valley locations. We may experience periods of strong, gusty winds this afternoon from time to time, but these should slacken quickly after sunset and as a cold front continues to pull away to our east.
This afternoon through Tuesday night Ridging will continue to build in today, with dry and warmer conditions persisting as we begin March.
However, an upper low over north Texas, will move through the area tonight and Tuesday.
/Issued 250 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021/ The short term period starts off with a cut-off low over NM/TX/OK, and near-zonal flow aloft across the CWA. For the rest of today, isolated light showers will be a possibility as moisture interacts with a cold front pushing through the area. Tuesday morning lows will be cooler than previous nights -- in the mid-30s to upper 40s.
934 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021 One cold front has just cleared the region while a second cold front will cross the region later this evening. High pressure will then build in for Tuesday.
Showers will increase in coverage roughly 10-12Z from the SW, as a low pressure center approaches the area.