Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the Atchafalaya Basin ATTM which has allowed a slightly drier nerly sfc flow to develop. Ridging is beginning build across central sections of the country this morning, however the area remains on the edge of an upper low that is centered over deep South TX. Through early to mid week, an upper ridge will build across the central sections of the country which will serve to decrease pops and increase temperatures. The ridge is expected to be centered roughly over the Ozarks which is just enough removed from the northern gulf coast to allow the potential for isolated diurnal storms.
Pre-frontal trough which had provided for much of the active wx yesterday has pretty much now diminished/washed out over n cntrl AL/GA, giving way to slightly drier around H5 mixing into the lower levels. With some moisture still in place below H7, some convective activity should also begin to form within the next few hrs, although the lack of a real focus mech may keep most of the coverage in the iso cat over the w and in the low sct cat to the e, aided by some orographic lifting. Otherwise, the morning forecast package looks to be fairly reasonable for later today, as afternoon temps warm into the lower 90s and associated heat indices climb well into the upper 90s. The best chance of thunderstorm development should take place along the higher terrain in the southeast portion of our forecast area.
1102 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016 Another weak front washes out across the area this afternoon, followed by weak high pressure tonight.
646 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016 High pressure ridge well off to the east this morning as the next weather maker/storm system continues to move through the Upper Midwest. The generally stable airmass in place in the wake of the ridge will continue to erode the east and southeast propagation early, but outflow from the storms will move across the state this afternoon.
631 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016 /12Z TAFS/ No concerns the next 24-30 hours, as a broad upper ridge and associated subsidence over the Southern Plains maintains dry conditions at all airports. /ISSUED 304 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016/ The storm track will remain well north of the region for the foreseeable future as an upper level ridge builds overhead and intensifies during the upcoming week. The ridge will be centered just north of the region over Oklahoma and Kansas, which is likely the area that will see the hottest conditions over the next several days.
Farther north, mid and high level clouds advancing south from southern Manitoba are associated with a weakening cold front. low precipitation chances will linger over northern portions of the area as weak cyclonic flow remains over the area while ridge starts to intensify to the lee of the Rockies. Upper level high intensifies over the southern plains with broad ridging over our area.
748 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016 Aviation High pressure will move east today and thunderstorms will move in from the west this afternoon.
Fog potential tonight looks a little lower due to less precip coverage expected, and slightly warmer temperatures.
830 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016 Showers and thunderstorms are likely with a Monday cold front. No changes were needed for the dry and warm forecast of today as high pressure slides across the region. Warmer overnight temperature can be expected as the dew point increases with developing southerly flow. The aforementioned front and associated mid level trough are progged to complete approach Monday morning, and cross by late Monday night. Timing of storm initiation and encroachment of a severe-favorable deep layer shear profile with the mid level trough are also questionable, so changes to the overall outlook should be anticipated for these eventualities.
Low pressure aloft will prevail over the region through midweek for somewhat unsettled weather. Meanwhile, low pressure aloft will prevail over the region today. Light and variable flow aloft will become more southerly late today due to the eventual development of an upper level low off the WA/OR coast.
Dewpoints rapidly increasing along/ahead of the line into the lower 60s. OK/AR centered mid tropospheric ridge strengthens in tandem with Northern and Canadian Plains low amplitude ridging. more likely to provide increasingly hot/humid/mid level capped environment until ridge weakens/flattens amid more progressive downstream and active upstream mid/upper flow pattern. High pressure was over the area with mostly clear skies and light winds at the start of the TAF period.
This leaves us under flat ridging with building heights today. Warm front will lift thru the area tonight which along with some moisture return and increasing elevated instability may be enough for isolated tstms. Today ridging will begin to build into much of the central US including into Montana. However with a weak low pressure system still lingering over western Montana and up into British Columbia, some weak energy will move across the area. With the ridge really beginning to assert itself, temperatures will be well into the 90s. The main ridge axis just to the east of the area, flow will still be able to tap into a little bit of moisture.
1007 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016 High pressure into tonight.
Few changes were made at this time with the inherited forecast in very decent shape depicting warmer temperatures and largely dry weather conditions. to the south a high pressure heat dome has formed over the Four Corners and Intermountain West. To the north a weak ridge runs into British Columbia and Yukon Territory. to the east zonal flow resides across Montana while to the west a large trough sets off the coast of the Pacific Northwest with a portion of the trough moving inland over Washington. Tonight through Monday: trough off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will dive south forcing a ridge response over Montana. monsoonal moisture will get trapped in the axis of this ridge. As the ridge passes through northeast Montana a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms should pass with it but impacts should be minimal.
1233 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016 Another weak front washes out across the area this afternoon, followed by weak high pressure tonight.
1115 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016 Showers and thunderstorms are likely with a Monday cold front. In general, a dry and warm forecast for today as high pressure slides across the region. Warmer overnight temperature can be expected as the dew point increases with developing southerly flow. The aforementioned front and associated mid level trough are progged to complete approach Monday morning, and cross by late Monday night. Timing of storm initiation and encroachment of a severe-favorable deep layer shear profile with the mid level trough are also questionable, so changes to the overall outlook should be anticipated for these eventualities.
955 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016 SE-ESE flow has deepened over the area past 24 hours as deep layer ridge drifts slowly northward. Morning Cape Canaveral sounding a little warmer at mid levels with 500 mb temp of -6. Generally favorable boating conditions continue with the low-level ridge axis moving slowly north of ECFL over the next 24hrs allowing onshore flow to continue to deepen.
The east coast sea breeze will move inland a little faster today across northeast Florida due to the ridge axis pushing northward to near the FL/GA border. Drier air was located over the Atlantic waters and across south/central Florida, and this is forecast to rotate northward into north central Florida later today around the ridge. Temperatures will rise into the low to mid 90s, with heat indices in the 102-107 degree range.
The PAH forecast area will be initially under slightly anti- cyclonic flow aloft in the short term, under the influence of an expansive mid/upper ridge over the southern CONUS. Dewpoints in the lower 70s ahead of a surface frontal boundary will be a contributing factor to instability, and a few tstms may become strong or severe, with damaging winds the main concern.
Many areas will likely struggle to reach the much more than the lower 80s. OK/AR centered mid tropospheric ridge strengthens in tandem with Northern and Canadian Plains low amplitude ridging. more likely to provide increasingly hot/humid/mid level capped environment until ridge weakens/flattens amid more progressive downstream and active upstream mid/upper flow pattern. High pressure was over the area with mostly clear skies and light winds at the start of the TAF period.
Upper ridge is draped somewhere across the state with deeper moisture across the southern third of the state and down along the Gulf coast. These will also be slow-movers but likely short-lived due to upr ridge placement.
610 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2017 High pressure centered over the Mid Mississippi Valley will move across the Upper Ohio Valley tomorrow and move off the Mid Atlantic Coast Saturday night.
Coastal trough to try to move inland drng the day.
These cigs should gradually lower through the morning and afternoon Saturday, as low level moisture begins to deepen in response to a deepening SSWrly low level flow on the backside of sfc ridging that will shift E over the SE U. The sucker hole allowed the Ark-La-Tex area to warm-up and will also help to keep overnight temperatures from falling to freezing. Saturday, Cloudy conditions with a light east to southwest winds, temperatures will rebound 15 to 20 degrees with daytime highs in the low 50s to upper 40s.
900 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2017 High pressure will build east across the area through the day on Saturday resulting in dry conditions and continued below normal temperatures.
958 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2017 Cold high pressure will build into the forecast area from the northwest tonight and dominate Saturday.
921 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2017 High pressure ridging over the area at the surface up through 700 mb will help to keep dry conditions in place through the remainder of the tonight. An analysis of the 00Z 850 mb surface showed a moisture axis setting up across the lower Rio Grande Valley. Overnight tonight the 850 mb ridge axis will drift eastward of the upper Texas coast. Think better chances will occur Saturday night as the warm front moves northward over the area. Also may see visibility restricted as warm front pushes north and an increase in showers.
A small craft advisory is now in effect for the coastal waters of Alabama and Northwest Florida out to 60 nm including the lower end of Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound east of Pascagoula until 7 am cst saturday. Cold front has pushed southward well into the northern Gulf. Lowering heights and a backing wind profile in the boundary layer, noted in forecast soundings tonight, signal a more established cold air advective process with overnight lows sinking into the lower to mid 30s interior. A few of the usually colder spots over the interior may see lows close to freezing if winds lower enough.
638 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2017 Cold high pressure will build into the forecast area from the northwest tonight and dominate Saturday.
316 PM MST Fri Feb 3 2017 Height falls have begun over the central Rockies as the axis of a weak ridge at 500mb shifts into the high plains. Some light snow will spread across the higher terrain of northeast Utah and northwest Colorado by midnight. Winter Weather Advisory continues between 8pm tonight and 2pm Saturday in the northern mountains - a general 5 to 8 inches in the Parks/Elkheads with up to 6 inches in the higher elevations of the Flat Tops.
This drier airmass is also a bit colder as a strong high pressure building over the Ohio Valley will allow for an advective freeze setup overnight with temps dropping into the mid 20s for the north and into the mid to upper 30s central. This high pressure ridge eventually setup into a wedge like situations but its dry for Sat. Cold front continues to push across south Georgia, with the back edge of lower (MVFR) clouds approaching a KCSG to KMCN line.
The low ceilings and visibilities are expected to clear out of the area around 18z. We opted to remove low order PoPs with the absence of trof and shallowness of mstr Sat AM.
/ISSUED 330 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2017/ Weak cold advection continues across north Texas on light northeasterly winds this afternoon thanks to high pressure over the Central Plains. Skies have generally cleared north of I-20 but this is likely to be as far south as the clearing skies get as winds become easterly and then southeasterly overnight as high pressure begins to move into the Ohio River Valley.
GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: A split trough sitting off the Pac- NW and Canada coasts will be sending moisture into and over the Northern Rockies tonight and this weekend.
/issued 448 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2017/ Two centers of high pressure encompass the region, one centered in the Atlantic north of the Bahamas and the other in the northeastern Gulf. There is also an elongated cold front across the northern Gulf that is entering the Florida panhandle and then extends northeastward into the the Atlantic off the Carolinas coast. The cold front is forecast to slowly move to the southeast tonight into Saturday while becoming diffuse.
Latest upper air analysis showed northwest flow over the Mississippi Valley with the main trough axis east of the forecast area. The associated ridge axis will remain extended from this high to northwest Gulf of Mexico through Saturday.
Also may see visibility restricted as warm front pushes north and an increase in showers.
Though the high pressure center will not directly move over the area tonight, this dry air will still help the boundary layer decouple enough for winds to lessen and temps to bottom out in the 20s and 30s by Saturday morning.
629 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2017 High pressure will build east across the area through the day on Saturday resulting in dry conditions and continued below normal temperatures.
546 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2017 Sprawling ridge of high pressure currently extending from western Canada southeastward to the Gulf Coast will provide clear skies and chilly conditions across central Illinois tonight. As the high shifts to the east and a weak upper-level wave approaches, mid/high clouds will increase from west to east late tonight into Saturday morning. As high pressure moves off to the east, southwest sfc flow will return to the area, bringing the return of warmer temps and an increase in moisture.
/issued 350 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2017/ Broad high pressure has settled into the central US this afternoon and looks to migrate to the east coast by tmrw aftn. Temps have ranged from the teens over the upper plain states to the lower 70s along the south Texas coast.
/issued 310 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2017/ High pressure continues to build into the Mid-South this afternoon. Skies have cleared, but cold northerly winds have kept temperatures in the lower to mid 40s. The high will shift east on Saturday. Winds should turn around to the south by the afternoon hours allowing temperatures to rebound into the mid 40s to the lower 50s.
Winds are northerly this evening with the passage of the cold front early today. Latest upper air analysis showed northwest flow over the Mississippi Valley with the main trough axis east of the forecast area. The associated ridge axis will remain extended from this high to northwest Gulf of Mexico through Saturday.
745 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2017 A weakening cold front will move into the region tonight and eventually dissipate over the area during Saturday. Strong high pressure behind the front will bridge the boundary establishing a general north to northeast flow through the weekend with a shift to north to northwest near the coast as the sea breeze develops during each afternoon.
505 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2017 High pressure providing ample sunshine across the area this afternoon, but fairly chilly. High pressure drifts across the region tonight with increasing high/mid clouds after midnight as warm air advection kicks in. Warm air advection/isentropic lift increases across the area Saturday as low pressure moves toward the region from the Northern Plains. Snow chances continue into Saturday night as the low and cold front make passage through the area. Could be some loss of cloud ice as well for a transition to some light freezing drizzle.
828 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2017 The cold front has pushed through most of the CWA except for portions of the Big Bend where CTY still has southwest winds but should move through there in the next couple hours. At 1 pm a surface cold front extended from southern SC through central GA, through the FL Panhandle, and into the western Gulf of Mexico. The cold front will continue moving slowly southeastward overnight, but skies will be slow to clear. The clouds and non-zero wind speeds will prevent temperatures from getting too cold, and we are forecasting lows generally in the lower to mid 40s, which is near average.
625 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2017 High pressure centered over the Mid Mississippi Valley will move across the Upper Ohio Valley tomorrow and move off the Mid Atlantic Coast Saturday night.
This should continue overnight as sfc ridging remains anchored from the Midwest SW into E TX, but 11-3. These cigs should gradually lower through the morning and afternoon Saturday, as low level moisture begins to deepen in response to a deepening SSWrly low level flow on the backside of sfc ridging that will shift E over the SE U.
619 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2017 High pressure will move from northern Missouri to southern Ohio tonight causing clear skies and cold temperatures across our area. A weak low pressure system will move across the upper Great Lakes over the weekend causing increasing cloudiness and warmer temperatures across our area, but no precipitation.
845 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2017 Cold front moving into northeast Florida this evening, with winds shifting to the northwest behind the front. Temperatures will be warmer across northeast Florida tonight due to cloud cover moving in behind the front, and cooler across southeast Georgia compared to last night due to cold air advection.
A cold frontal boundary lies across north Florida this evening moving southward. High pressure will build into the area on Sat behind the front.
531 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2017 High pressure builds eastward into the Northeast Saturday with colder temperatures expected.
915 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2017 Tonight will be a few degrees cooler than this morning's lows with less clouds and lighter winds. High pressure center is across northern MO this evening.
The high will slowly shift a bit east of the area on Saturday and southerly flow around this feature will allow warmer air to move in with continued scattered high clouds and light wind for Saturday. no updates anticipated Chattanooga Airport, TN 25 51 37 56 / 0 0 30 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 23 47 34 54 / 0 0 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 22 49 34 54 / 0 0 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 18 45 25 52 / 0 0 20 20.
Exception is across the W Brush Country where drier air in the lowest 100mb should result in some cooling.
927 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2017 High pressure centered over the Mid Mississippi Valley will move across the Upper Ohio Valley tomorrow and move off the Mid Atlantic Coast Saturday night.
547 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2017 A warm front currently located across southwest Nebraska into northern Kansas, will lift north tonight as a strong southerly low level jet develops. Snow covered areas will be a bit cooler, in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
614 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2017 Cold high pressure will build into the forecast area from the northwest tonight and dominate Saturday.
427 PM MST Fri Feb 3 2017 Upper ridging is building across the CWA as the main axis slides across the northern Rockies. Cooler air will slide in behind a weak cold front through the day.
430 PM MST Fri Feb 3 2017 Height falls have begun over the central Rockies as the axis of a weak ridge at 500mb shifts into the high plains. Some light snow will spread across the higher terrain of northeast Utah and northwest Colorado by midnight. Winter Weather Advisory continues between 8pm tonight and 2pm Saturday in the northern mountains - a general 5 to 8 inches in the Parks/Elkheads with up to 6 inches in the higher elevations of the Flat Tops.
Also made some updates to the overnight temperatures in Palm Beach County and portions of the interior where lower dewpoints continue to persist and temperatures could be a few degrees cooler than forecast previously. /issued 448 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2017/ Two centers of high pressure encompass the region, one centered in the Atlantic north of the Bahamas and the other in the northeastern Gulf. There is also an elongated cold front across the northern Gulf that is entering the Florida panhandle and then extends northeastward into the the Atlantic off the Carolinas coast. The cold front is forecast to slowly move to the southeast tonight into Saturday while becoming diffuse.
The high will slowly shift a bit east of the area on Saturday and southerly flow around this feature will allow warmer air to move in with continued scattered high clouds and light wind throughout the day.
915 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2017 High pressure builds overhead through Saturday.
Looks like the region will probably see the low temperatures this evening with steady to slowly rising temps through the night.
1022 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2017 Under partly cloudy skies with a gentle to moderate northeast breeze, temperatures in the Florida Keys are in the lower 70s.
410 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016 Main short term concern is timing of secondary wave of thunderstorms tonight which will be associated with the sharp cold front. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continued to develop ahead of a sharp cold front across the eastern Dakotas. The cold front will have moved through the forecast area by tomorrow, shutting off the precip and introducing slightly lower dew points and temperatures across west central MN. However, the low level thermal profile immediately behind the front won't be all that much cooler, which explains why we still expect highs in the mid 60 to near 70 across most of the area.
402 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2016 High pressure centered in the northeastern states will keep dry weather in place through the end of the week.
400 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016 (Tonight and Wednesday) A broad upper-level trough will occupy the western and central CONUS through tomorrow. An upper-level closed low over the northern Rockies will lift north over Canada by tomorrow while another upper-level low will move southeastward out of the Pacific Northwest and reinforce the deep upper-level trough over the western CONUS. Morning lows will again be in the upper 60s across the area with afternoon highs tomorrow in the lower 90s.
Meanwhile, the cold front was still poised to our west across central NE. Models are in good agreement strong upper level low and sfc reflection will quickly lift thru the Dakotas with trailing attendant cold front slowing down then becoming quasi-stationary late tonight.
Although this line of activity has been weakening throughout the day, it will begin to ramp up again this evening as the surface cold front moves into the area. Expect dry and warm conditions for Wednesday during the day with highs in the low 80s. In the afternoon, a warm front will begin to push north into Iowa and stall out.
607 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2016 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather for much of the week.
/issued 1039 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2016/ Southwest flow aloft ahead of an upper-trough across Central Texas to support scattered cu field across the region this afternoon.
313 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2016 500mb upper low continues to spin over eastern Montana this afternoon as seen in IR imagery. Upper ridge through the GreatLakes. Cut off low over Pennsylvania and closed low moving off the Gulf of Alaska into the western Canadian Provinces. At the surface, low pressure will follow a similar track to the upper level closed low, this will allow the pressure gradient to relax with backing light winds to the west expected overnight.