Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The surface cold front that had accompanied the upper trough was barely discernible, and NWP guidance frontogenesis fields show almost no trace of the front tonight, as it becomes just a surface wind shift. A deep-layer ridge will quickly build across the Southeast, with fair weather and warm temperatures expected. Lows will be in the low to mid 60s, and highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
1037 PM PDT Sat May 13 2017 Temperatures will be cooler than average for Mothers Day, and there will be a chance of showers over much of the Inland Northwest.
Low temperatures will range from the mid 40s to low 50s in far eastern Colorado to the low to upper 50s east of the CO/KS border. At the start of the period, southwesterly flow continues aloft on the backside of an upper ridge centered over the CONUS. A cold front stalls near northern Kansas Sunday night as a low level jet develops. On Monday, the front lifts north as a warm front and temperatures peak.
1118 PM MDT Sat May 13 2017 Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper ridge centered over western South Dakota with an upper low moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest. There is a long wave trough extending southward from the Pacific northwest low down to the Baja Peninsula. At the surface, there is an area of low pressure just north of the Black Hills with a cold front extending through central Wyoming and a warm front along the North/South Dakota border. For this afternoon and evening, low level instability combined with convergence along and the cold front and eastern foothills will allow some showers and storms to develop. The cold front should move through most of the forecast area overnight.
Deep layer ridging will build in across the region today, with no rain and partly cloudy skies expected.
700 AM EDT Sun May 14 2017 Broad scale high pressure will build over the region today and persist over the region through the work week. This will allow temperatures to climb well above normal and diurnally driven convection to be possible each day, with the greatest chances over the higher terrain. The next 24 hours look rather quiet, courtesy of an upper ridge to our west supporting weak high pressure and a broad WNW flow aloft. As of 230 AM EDT Sunday: the short term fcst picks up at 12z on Monday with broad upper trofing slowly moving off the New England Coast, while steep upper ridging begins to spread over the fcst area from the west.
An approaching Pacific weather system will bring cooler temperatures along with an increase in wind speeds today and Monday.
This will be the last 2 days of the effects of the upper ridge in the southern plains. A large-scale pattern change will occur Monday into Tuesdaywhen the southern plains become subject to the effects of a synoptic-scale upper low and large trough over the western U.
324 AM CDT Sun May 14 2017 An upper level ridge is currently centered over the region early this morning.
328 AM EDT Sun May 14 2017 High pressure and drier air will be dominating the area the next few days. Boundary layer appears slightly warmer than yesterday. An anomalously deep upper low developing off the New England coast and northwest flow aloft continues across the region through Monday. A short wave trough may move through the area during the day but air mass appears dry and with weak instability.
313 AM EDT Sun May 14 2017 Currently, isolated shower activity associated with a weak pre- frontal trough is maintaining most of the activity over the western portion of Collier County and the interior overnight. This pre-frontal trough will continue its forward progression during the night hours before sunrise producing isolated to scattered showers mainly to the west. Ridge settles over the southeast plains with Atlantic high pressure strengthening by mid week.
A broad trough remains along the West coast today but the colder and more unstable airmass has shifted east of the Cascades. The upper level trough is also splitting with a closed low in the southern stream near Sacramento. On Monday, even though the trough axis will have shifted to the eastern third of Oregon, another closed low pressure will move to Vancouver Island. Both the GFS and the ECMWF are consistent on the placement of this low but are slightly slower.
143 AM EDT Sun May 14 2017 Weak low pressure and a cold front will move offshore tonight. High pressure returns and prevails for most of the upcoming week. At the surface, a cold front will be far offshore Sunday morning and high pressure will build across the Southeastern United States in its wake.
1125 PM MDT Sat May 13 2017 Dry and breezy to windy conditions expected over the next couple days as persistent upper trof remains in place along the west coast. All activity winds down during the evening with a mild night in store as lee troffing keeps min temps in the upper 40s lower 50s across the lower elevations with a mix of 30s and 40s for the high country. Sunday should be a few degrees warmer still with south to southwest winds mixing down again during the afternoon.
143 AM EDT Sun May 14 2017 High pressure and drier air will be overtaking the region tonight.
248 AM EDT Sun May 14 2017 Upper low, now rather sheared in appearance on Water Vapor imagery, will continue to shift southeast through Ontario, brushing north of Lake Huron this morning. Same basic premise as yesterday's forecast remains in play as weak back door cold front, assisted by diurnal release of Lake Huron marine layer this afternoon, maintains a cool temperature bias, particularly through the northeast quadrant of the forecast area. This will essentially set up an afternoon temperature gradient from the low 60s Thumb (50s along the immediate lakeshore) to 70 south of Metro Detroit. Relatively thick band of mid level cloudiness associated with broad jet funneling down the backside of this upper low and weak warm air advection will also influence the temperature profile today.
After an early morning shower, dry conditions are expected today as heights rise behind an exiting trough. Most of the warm air advection will be confined to the west and far south as cooler air continues to rotate around the persistent eastern upper level low. Western trough is projected to amplify and drift toward the Central CONUS by late in the week, pushing upper ridge from Mid-West to Eastern CONUS. Much warmer temperature and dry weather may be anticipated for much of the period. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through Sunday night as surface ridging slowly builds in, though crossing mid level clouds and a few diurnal cu are expected on the wrn side of the low. Restrictions are possible with the approach of a late week cold front.
216 AM CDT Sun May 14 2017 The eastern flank of a synoptic scale amplified ridge will prevail across the Southeast today. Meanwhile, a pair of troughs on each side of the CONUS will be deepening over either seaboard showing evidence of a developing Omega block pattern later in the week. After overnight lows in the upper 40s/low 50s, sunny conditions will act to warm temperatures rapidly today with daytime highs rising into the low to mid 80s. Typical diurnal to nocturnal transition in temperature will prevail tonight as the aformentioned ridge prevails through the short-term.
A cold front will continue to push through the CWA overnight. Lows will be in the 40s inland and in the lower to mid 50s along the coast.
Water vapor imagery depicts the exiting upper level low to our southeast.
The low dew points in place and diminishing northerly winds should allow for a cool night, with lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s Wednesday morning. The only thing that could prevent it from getting a little cooler are the high clouds that will be streaming across the region through the first half of the night. Elevated fire weather conditions may occur across portions of the far western CWA, near the Rio Grande, Wednesday afternoon as southerly winds resume and become gusty and RH values dip into the lower teens.
638 PM EST Tue Mar 6 2018 Low pressure passes tonight.
With mostly sunny skies allowing for some snowmelt today, am still a little concerned about the freezing fog potential overnight. Hickford Flow aloft over Northeast Montana is northwest due to a split trough arrangement, with a closed low over northern Alberta and Saskatchewan, and the large stacked low centered over the Great Lakes tonight. There will be an upper ridge located along the West Coast.
635 PM EST Tue Mar 6 2018 A cold front will move through the forecast area tonight.
Most likely sprinkles or very light rain as there remains plenty of dry air in the low levels. Scattered showers will spin around a large low pressure system advancing from Illinois this evening to Pennsylvania by Wednesday evening. Soundings suggest the showers would be in the form of rain this evening, transitioning to light snow showers overnight even in places that stay above freezing at the surface thanks to high RH in the DGZ and steep lapse rates. Low temperatures tonight should be in the lower and middle 30s. Road temperatures are forecast to remain above freezing, with the possible exception of bridges on lightly traveled roads. Went on the cool side of guidance for highs, mostly in the lower 40s.
With the timing of this being in the afternoon, with some diurnal effects, but a greater influence from the PV anomaly itself, the low to mid- level response has been to steepen lapse rates to nearly dry adiabatic through about 700mb. With temperatures in most of the area near or above freezing and individual snow showers lasting only tens of minutes in a given location, there has been minimal impact except for the rapid deterioration in visibility.
427 PM MST Tue Mar 6 2018 20z surface analysis had low over northern IL with stacked upper low spinning through IA into IL per water vapour loop.
With temperatures at or above freezing, no significant accumulations are expected, but some reductions in visibility can certainly be expected within the heavier bands of snow. Heading into this evening, light snow is expected to fill back in across the region as the main upper level trough swings across.
Have increased PoPs into the Likely category early this evening with mdls depicting the upper low dropping thru the CWA. That said, coverage shud diminish quickly mid to late evening as the upper low pulls out of the area. With temps still above freezing across the area, any snow that has fallen will melt somewhat. Bridges/overpasses may accumulate some snow, but given how slowly temps shud fall this evening, the wind may evaporate any water before it can freeze. Believe diurnal CU will form and become at least broken in coverage, helping to keep temps cooler.
The next shift may be able to cancel the High Wind Warning early.
Winds will drop off more later this eve to the south, however, cirrus cloud cover may be a little greater, while more mixing from nw winds exist to the north, but with thinner clouds and dewpoints into the teens to allow temps to still fall to near freezing, mainly north of Interstate 30. The winds will keep up decent speeds for the overnight, but diminishing gusts can be expected right around sunset as high pressure noses down the front range. Loads of wind to our North under the upper low over the mid MS valley under the clouds. We will be going below average for a day and half as this high pressure sets up shop down in our neck of the woods.
An upper level low currently across the Mid- Mississippi River Valley will dive southward late tonight into the Tennessee River Valley with clouds increasing. A cold front associated with this system will lead to increasing winds with westerly winds gusting into the 25-30 kt range at times after 12z.
Visible satellite imagery has a great depiction of the closed low to our NW and the frontal boundary that moved through last night. The low will push a cold front through the area tonight. These winds and increasing low/mid level clouds will prevent temps from falling much below the low to mid 30s tonight. Some of the breezier spots may be the higher terrain in southern middle TN and NE AL where a few gusts of 30-35 mph are possible. Cloudy and cool start Wednesday as the core of the upper level low will be just to our NE. The closed low phases with another system dropping south out of Hudson Bay, which will end up keeping the closed low over situated over the eastern Great Lakes region.
917 PM CST Tue Mar 6 2018 North winds will continue to diminish overnight as temperatures dip several degrees below freezing.
The models are still in agreement that some light snow may occur after midnight with the lower cloud cover, so will keep small pops in. The lower clouds could affect the temperature forecast, keeping temps slightly warmer than they would be with the fresh snowpack.
Scattered showers will spin around a large low pressure system advancing from Illinois this evening to Pennsylvania by Wednesday evening. Soundings suggest the showers would be in the form of rain this evening, transitioning to light snow showers overnight even in places that stay above freezing at the surface thanks to high RH in the DGZ and steep lapse rates. Low temperatures tonight should be in the lower and middle 30s. Road temperatures are forecast to remain above freezing, with the possible exception of bridges on lightly traveled roads. Went on the cool side of guidance for highs, mostly in the lower 40s.
the winter weather will wind down as the upper low continues east. I have stuck some in there in the far east, but this may need to be backed up a bit further west if the low does not make it far enough east.
The going forecast is in line with the latest data, with clearing skies, subsiding winds and rather chilly lows expected by morning as high pressure builds into Oklahoma tonight. Most areas should fall below freezing by daybreak Wednesday. These very strong winds are associated with a large upper cyclone moving into northern MO this afternoon. Weather will be quieter tomorrow and cooler, with much less wind.
Upper level ridge currently over the area. An upper low is located well offshore. As the low nears the coast Wednesday skies will become partly to mostly cloudy.
Airmass will be mainly dry tonight and Tuesday as ridging aloft builds west of Colorado with decreasing northwest flow aloft. Temperatures will be warmer on Wednesday with warm air advection and rising heights. Mostly clear conditions will continue Wednesday night with slightly warmer temperatures due to the warm advection and weak downsloping westerly winds. Decreased minimum temperatures over the high mountain valleys however due to the clear skies and lower wind speeds.
Wind advisory was considered for Wednesday, but only for the highest terrain of N GA where wind gusts will bring us just barely into criteria.
/issued 344 PM CST Tue Mar 6 2018/ Impressive gradient winds between high pressure over Texas and a deep low over the Midwest have been observed across the Midsouth today. Temperatures are in the low to middle 60s. A dry cold front will move quickly across the Midsouth tonight. low humidity and relatively light wind will allow temperatures to fall into the low to middle 30s.
Cold front stretches from central IL southwest through eastern OK. Meanwhile, a strong upper level trough axis will amplify and push across the mid state after midnight. After lows tonight in the lower to mid 30s, the mercury will hold in the 40s for Wed and Thu. Freezing temps are on tap for Wed nt and again on Thu night.
These very strong winds are associated with a large upper cyclone moving into northern MO this afternoon. Weather will be quieter tomorrow and cooler, with much less wind.
857 PM EST Tue Mar 6 2018 An active weather pattern continues through the week as rounds of low pressure bring periods of rain, snow, and mixed precipitation. Outside of several inches on the higher ridges, light snow accumulation is expected. 00Z sounding shows a good deal of cooling aloft as the upper low nears the forecast area. Save for the higher ridges of Garrett and Tucker where snow and the winter weather advisory will continue, accumulations will mostly be held in check by the increasing March sun angle and temperatures rising to 40 or higher.
~90kt westerly winds are in place at this level and above as the base of an upper level trough tracks across the region. /issued 342 PM CST Tue Mar 6 2018/ Cold front has moved well into the Gulf of Mexico and cooler/drier air continues to move into the area.
The lingering energy behind the low in the central plains has finally started to move farther east into the Dakotas, so show in the eastern Montana has moved out. Some of the high-resolution models continue to some fog developing this evening.
COOLER AND BREEZY WEDNESDAY WITH DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER Prefrontal showers and thunderstorms have largely dissipated as they pass over the region with the Gulf precipitation remaining maritime based and making little progress inland. A brief band of low cloudiness between 3 and 5 kft will accompany the cold front as it sweeps east overnight and possibility a brief shower.
The cold front has just about exited the region as it only has Eufaula to go at 2 pm. A few isolated areas may dip into the freezing mark, but not widespread enough at this time to issue a freeze warning.
908 PM CST Tue Mar 6 2018 A cold front has pushed into the Mid-South this evening. Lows will drop into the lower to mid 30s. /issued 344 PM CST Tue Mar 6 2018/ Impressive gradient winds between high pressure over Texas and a deep low over the Midwest have been observed across the Midsouth today. Temperatures are in the low to middle 60s. A dry cold front will move quickly across the Midsouth tonight. low humidity and relatively light wind will allow temperatures to fall into the low to middle 30s.
For tonight, minimum temperatures will drop into the teens across the plains with teens and single digits over the higher terrain.
924 PM CST Tue Mar 6 2018 Forecast looks on track for quiet and cool weather for the next couple of days as high pressure builds into the region. A reinforcing dry cold front latter this evening will briefly strengthen these ongoing northerlies. Look for a decent temperature drop overnight with caa continuing as high pressure makes its way further south into the region. Mostly sunny, dry but cooler conditions should prevail Wednesday with ridging in control.
There could be some locally heavy rainfall amounts up to one to two inches and isolated lightning strikes with stronger convection that is forecast to occur mainly along and just ahead of the low level frontal boundary. Lows will range from the upper 50s far north to the lower 60s central and srn zones. Long period northeast swells to 10-12 ft offshore this evening will combine with increasing winds ahead of the cold front to raise combined seas further late tonight and Wednesday morning, especially offshore.
632 PM EST Tue Mar 6 2018 Low pressure crossing Ohio tonight will bring rain changing to snow.
512 PM CST Tue Mar 6 2018 A deep occluded low pressure system will advance eastward across northern Illinois this evening. Gusty southwest winds of 20-30 mph will linger into early evening, mainly south of I-72 a little further south of the low pressure track. Winds will weaken near the low track, and become west- northwesterly in the wake of the low. The center of the cold pool is expected to rotate through Illinois with the upper trough axis Wed night, dropping between -12C to -14C range.
An upper level low pressure trough was moving southeast into Illinois this afternoon. Tonight high pressure builds southward into the Plains and into Oklahoma on Wednesday. Lows tonight will dip down into the low to mid 20s. Highs on Wednesday are expected to warm into the lower to upper 40s.
With that said, it is entirely possible the models are overestimating the low level moisture, and hence cloud potential. Conditions are expected to go VFR by late afternoon into tomorrow evening as high pressure makes inroads to the area.
931 PM EST Tue Mar 6 2018 Low pressure passes tonight.
Tonight is mostly clear and cold under a building ridge. Mostly clear tonight ahead of an upper level ridge. High clouds increase Wednesday into Wed night as the ridge axis moves east.
Issued by National Weather Service TUCSON AZ 815 PM MST Tue Mar 6 2018 Varying amounts of high clouds are expected across the region this week as weak high pressure builds across the area. A flat upper ridge was situated over the desert southwest this evening, with dry westerly flow aloft dominating our weather pattern. The high temperature in Phoenix today reached 80 degrees; this was a couple degrees warmer than expected and likely due to the combination of sunny skies and VERY dry air that is now in place over the lower deserts. Dirty ridging will remain the dominant theme the next few days with varying amounts of cloud cover forecast each afternoon along with above normal temperatures. Consequently this should also result in warmer temps with lower 80s common across most of the metro.
Temps should remain above freezing. Dry weather Wednesday through Wednesday night as high pressure starts to build into the area.
524 PM CST Tue Mar 6 2018 Massive upper level low dropping south with snow and blowing snow coming to an end. Will maintain the low chances across the area as accumulations are not very likely. Mostly clear skies will develop on Wednesday night as cold high pressure settle south.
The 00Z KTBW sounding from this evening shows a moistening environment ahead of the approaching cold front currently located across the Panhandle. A progressive cold front will move through overnight into the early part of the morning.
High temperatures will be in the mid 20s, or a few degrees warmer across the forested areas of Minnesota, where cloud cover will be less extensive during the day.
North winds have remained strong on the backside of the low, which was over Illinois as of 21z. Have all snow chances out around 00z as drier air moves in at the low levels and isentropic upglide wanes. Wind will also lighten after sunset due to the departing upper low and PV anomaly, weakening pressure gradient, and boundary layer decoupling. The upper ridge pushes east with the axis bisecting the Great Basin while the closed low pushes into Lower MI. This setup keeps Nebraska in northwest flow aloft as high pressure slides south across the Plains at the surface. Cool air revolving around the low (H85 temps around -7C) continues to influence north central Neb, and with a somewhat of a snowpack, highs will struggle to leave the 30s.
513 PM CST Tue Mar 6 2018 Water vapor imagery showing the center of the closed upper low continuing to push slowly southeast through Iowa. Things quiet down tonight with main upper level moving well to our east and ridging beginning to move in from the west. The ridge noted above is progged to build into the western half of the CONUS while troughing sets up in the east. Long range models have been showing a clipper system moving over the ridge and through the central Plains by the weekend, but the timing and intensity have not been very consistent with past few model runs.
Intense wnw winds are occurring over the area today as low pressure along the se IA/ne MO border moves southeast into IL.
The lower clouds could affect the temperature forecast, keeping temps slightly warmer than they would be with the fresh snowpack.
/issued 238 PM CST Tue Mar 6 2018/ (Tonight and tomorrow) A reinforcing cold front will continue to exit the southern counties through the evening. Decided to factor in the possibility for overnight cirrus and kept temperatures slightly warmer. Temperatures will be at or slightly above freezing across the area tonight. Wednesday continues to look cool with lows near freezing to start, and highs from the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Area now under a dry northerly flow through the low and mid levels, trending westerly aloft.
1023 PM EST Tue Mar 6 2018 Low pressure crossing Ohio tonight will bring rain changing to snow.