Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
IT LOOKS IT WILL BE WARMER TONIGHT. THE MODELS/SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE CWA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN LIKELY CHANGING OVER TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AROUND 18Z. ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT THE WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TO SHOW THE RAIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST ZONES A LITTLE SLOWER. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SLEET WL BE PSBL AROUND 12Z AT GLH AND GWO BUT THE GREATEST CHC OF FROZEN PCPN IN THE NORTH WL BE AFTER 21Z MONDAY AFTN.
THOUGH THE HIGH PRESSURE IS KEEPING A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN PLACE. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT LARGE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND SOME MESOSCALE BANDING OF PRECIP IN THE CAA PORTION OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO PUSH INTO NW GA EARLY THIS MORNING. STILL THINKING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FT IN FAR NORTH GA WILL HAVE BEST CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AND MAY HAVE A FEW SLICK SPOTS.
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW W-NWLY WINDS ON RIDGETOP AND EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE STEADILY INCREASING THIS MORNING AS THE MTN WAVE DEEPENS. COULD SEE GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH OUT ALONG THE WYOMING/NEBRASKA BORDERS AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WASHINGTON COUNTY SUCH AS AROUND AKRON. MAX TEMPS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH 30S THE RULE. SO BACK TO THE LOW POPS UP THERE OVERNIGHT. AND TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY WITH A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER MAX TEMPS WERE NUDGED TOWARD THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR MOST AREAS ON THE CAPROCK GIVEN LINGERING SNOW COVER AND MORE TOPSOIL MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE ROLLING PLAINS.
SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH RISING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE RIDGING IN THE CONTINUING NORTHWEST FLOW. SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY.
The cold front has passed through the area with clouds lingering in its wake.
615 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. WE'LL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TODAY. MEANWHILE WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TODAY IS THE LAST CHANCE AT ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UPPER LEVEL TROF ALSO CROSSES THE AREA DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH SOME DECENT VORTICITY ADVECTION. MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
Warm air advection ahead of this system should allow temps to climb into the low to middle 50s across most areas today. however cold air advection on the backside of the low combined with increasing moisture aloft may result in a RA/SN mix for portions of north-central MO after sunrise Sunday. the other main story will be the much cooler forecast as models have trended cooler. a fairly quick return to warmer weather is anticipated as heights begin building as West Coast upper ridging breaks down and shifts east. Upper low across Baja California still forecast to traverse the crest of the ridge before ejecting east into the Plains by midweek.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS SKIES CLEAR OUT AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND SOME MESOSCALE BANDING OF PRECIP IN THE CAA PORTION OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO PUSH INTO NW GA EARLY THIS MORNING. STILL THINKING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FT IN FAR NORTH GA WILL HAVE BEST CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AND MAY HAVE A FEW SLICK SPOTS.
TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY WARMER ENOUGH TO PERMIT FULL MIXING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA SO RAISED WINDS THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES. BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE RIDGE START TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY WILL BEGIN THE WARM UP THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE BRINGS IN WARMER WEATHER. THE DOWNSLOPING WILL HELP TO BRING THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES DOWN.
646 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NC OUTER BANKS CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD WITH RAIN ACROSS THE AREA DIMINISHING.
A MODIFIED ARCTIC COLD FRONT SITUATED ALONG THE CANADIAN/U. A WEAK S/W TROF WAS MOVG THROUGH NORTHERN WI AND THE WSTRN U. THE COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH THE INCOMING CLIPPER SYSTEM TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY THE SW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE.
THIS GENERATED SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND WAS ABLE TO CONTINUE THE LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE MAIN WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST DEEPENS A BIT MORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE CANADIAN TROUGH. AS WARMER AIR RESIDES. IT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS UPPER TROUGH BRINGS STRONGER FORCING AND COOLING TO THE AREA.
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
326 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015 THE FAMILIAR PATTERN OF A WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH THIS WINTER REMAINS IN PLACE THE 00Z HAND ANALYSIS CHART. THIS TROUGH GETS RE-ENFORCED BY ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH TOPPING THE RIDGE AND DROPPING INTO THE MIDWEST. THE JET TRANSLATING EASTWARD WILL PULL THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER INLAND. A CLOSED LOW SITUATED NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD. BUT ENCOUNTERS THE STRONG RIDGE AXIS THAT COVERS UTAH AND COLORADO. RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION AND ANY QPF WILL BE LIGHT.
300 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015 BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
WIDELY SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE HAVE INCREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND PORTIONS OF FAR NW LWR MICHIGAN PER LATEST BASE REF IMAGES. SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND MINNESOTA ATTM. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 30S NEAR SAGINAW BAY. SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU OUR CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT 09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AB WITH TROUGH INTO EASTERN WY AND COOL FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MT.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE AS STRONG SURGE BEHIND COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.
PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC WILL SEND ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS NRN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY WARMER MINS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER THOSE OF THIS MORNING. THE PRESENCE OF THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD HELP MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL SATURATION AND FOG DESPITE SOGGY SOIL CONDITIONS.
LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WITH SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE SOUTH SUNDAY AM FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. MINIMAL COOLING BEHIND THE LOW AND DEGREE OF CLEARING AND POTENTIAL SNOW COVER WILL GOVERN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
546 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THIS MORNING.
651 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WITH SOME SUN FELT THAT GOING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WARMER GUIDANCE WAS PRUDENT.
This storm is wetter and will deliver high mountain snow and valley rain with some remaining isolated pockets of freezing rain through this morning.
THIS WILL ALSO DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE THIS AFTN. THE MODELS SUGGEST HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS ON SUN AND MON. A POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR FOR TEMPS WILL BE ANY HIGH CLOUDS THAT MAY ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE AXIS. CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER FOR HIGHS ON MON.
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH LEADING TO SOME PATCHY FOG AND TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND SUB FREEZING TEMPS COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY BLACK ICE THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. AIRMASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM IS NOT TOO COLD AND HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LIGHT WSW WIND. LATEST MODELS ARE DEPICTING A MORE POTENT UPPER TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SE INTO MIDDLE AND EAST TN BY SUNDAY EVENING.
335 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND.
BEHIND IT, COOLER WEATHER AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. STILL EXPECT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY OR ROUGHLY FROM NEAR WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON, SOUTH AND EAST.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THE FLORIDA KEYS AT OR AROUND THE NOON HOUR. MODEST ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THESE STORMS IS BEING PROVIDED BY THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THEY WILL REQUIRE THE ADDITIONALLY PUSH FROM THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT TO PUSH THE REST OF THE WAY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE KEYS.
417 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015 A broad upper trough is over the eastern conus and Upper Midwest with a closed low strengthening off the coast of Mexico south of California this morning.
TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THE SHORT TERM MODELS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGES WERE INDICATING THAT THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z TODAY. AND INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION BY 12Z SUNDAY.
421 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015 FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WEST. WE REMAIN CONCERNED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN DESPITE AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S OVER WESTERN OBSERVATION SITES. ROAD SFC TEMPERATURES ARE SUB-FREEZING SO ANY RAIN THAT FALLS WILL LIKELY FREEZE CREATING ICY TRAVEL CONDITIONS UNTIL SOLAR RADIATION WARMS THE ROAD SURFACES QUICKLY BY MID MORNING. WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL ERODE AS THE DAY GOES ON SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE FREEZING RAIN PROBLEMS AFTER SUNSET WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW THIS EVENING. AND THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR ALL RAIN WILL BE SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 40S ARE FORECAST.
A large upper level trough will encompass the eastern half of the CONUS today, keeping northwest flow over the area this weekend. Weak downsloping west to northwest surface winds will contribute to warmer temperatures today with afternoon highs in the upper 50s areawide. It will be a little warmer tonight with overnight lows in the low to mid 30s.
519 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015 An upper level trough is pushing off to the east towards the east coast early this morning. Behind the trough mostly sunny and warmer conditions will occur today. Highs will range from the lower 50s across the eastern Ozarks to upper 50s across portions of extreme southeastern Kansas this afternoon. The better moisture and energy with this system will remain to the east of the area, but there should be enough lift across the eastern Ozarks to squeeze out some sprinkles or light rain on Sunday as the trough moves through the area. Temperatures will be a little cooler on Sunday with an increase in cloud cover and the light rain moving through the area. Also, a cooler air mass will start to spread south later in the day as the trough passes through the region.
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER SOLUTIONS IN THE SREF/ECMWF/RUC FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY. THIS AREA IS A LITTLE TRICKIER WITH MODELS HOLDING ONTO SOME LOW STRATUS THAT IS FURTHER EAST THAN WHAT THEY ARE DEPICTING AND THUS HAVE COOLER TEMPS FORECAST. FOLLOWING THE LOW.
Thus far, most valleys of northwest Montana have remained in the mid 30s overnight limiting the freezing rain threat but freezing rain has been reported along US-2 from West Glacier to Marias Pass. Isolated pockets of light freezing rain remain possible this morning thus the Winter Weather Advisories will continue as road conditions will be changeable and slippery at times. High pressure with significant warming in the terrain and higher valleys can be expected Sunday through early this week. Forecast tools that compare this upcoming high pressure with those for this time of the year in the past point to a rare amount of warm air for late January.
TODAY AND TONIGHT DOWNSLOPING SURFACE WINDS AND NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY.
GUSTY EAST WINDS SATURDAY WITH WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
642 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THIS MORNING.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF A 500MB CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA.
/ISSUED 417 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015/ A broad upper trough is over the eastern conus and Upper Midwest with a closed low strengthening off the coast of Mexico south of California this morning.
638 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. WE'LL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TODAY. MEANWHILE WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TODAY IS THE LAST CHANCE AT ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UPPER LEVEL TROF ALSO CROSSES THE AREA DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH SOME DECENT VORTICITY ADVECTION. MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LOWEST CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE IN THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD. AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION DRIES THINGS OUT.
STILL SHOULD BE SOME ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 46 32 54 36 / 20 0 50 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 43 31 50 35 / 40 10 40 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 44 31 50 35 / 30 10 50 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 41 27 50 34 / 70 10 50 70 TN.
536 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015 A weak surface trof is expected to push across the area this morning switching our winds more into a west to northwest direction. Have trended a bit higher with qpf over central IL Sunday along with cooler temps Sunday/Sunday night and bringing chances of snow further south with the cooler air/further south track of storm system. Light snow could mix with light rain late tonight north of I-74, but most areas should be rain overnight with lows in the low to mid 30s. A winter weather advisory may eventually be needed in ne counties but will issue SPS for now due to models shifting track of low pressure past few runs.
330 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BRING WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EAST- CENTRAL OREGON AND WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO TODAY. BUT AS THE INVERSION STRENGTHENS WOULD EXPECT THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN AND OTHER LOW ELEVATION SPOTS IN SE OREGON TO SEE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
325 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES TODAY.
945 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD WITH RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGION DIMINISHING BY MIDDAY.
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
1022 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING. DRY AND MUCH COOLER AIR MASS SHOULD THEN FILTER ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING TO THE EAST COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND EXITING THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY MORNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND.
A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING TO THE EAST COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND EXITING THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE WAVE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST DURING THE EVENING. AN ANALYSIS OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THIS WILL BE A RAIN OR SNOW EVENT WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE FOR SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT SUSPECT THAT SNOW WILL START FALLING OVER MAINLY SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DURING THE EVENING AS COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTLE IN NEAR FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE. WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH AND EAST TO THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR. A LITTLE COOLER ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
942 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT. THE LOW WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
830 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND.
ALSO WITH COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FAR NW FA WHERE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF TEMPERATURE RECOVERY EXPECTED. LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WITH SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE SOUTH SUNDAY AM FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. MINIMAL COOLING BEHIND THE LOW AND DEGREE OF CLEARING AND POTENTIAL SNOW COVER WILL GOVERN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
848 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD WITH RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGION DIMINISHING BY MIDDAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS WE REMAIN ON THE LEE SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
AT 250 MB THIS MORNING A LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WITH SOUTHEAST TEXAS AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SWING TO THE EAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR BEAUTIFUL WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. 850 TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY RIGHT AROUND FREEZING AND WITH FULL SUN THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S.
AFDSGX AFDSGX 834 PM PST TUE FEB 17 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAIR AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WITH A SHARP LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND DOWN TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A COUPLE OF VORT MAXES ARE TRACKING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA/CENTRAL KS. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM EASTERN MO INTO SW KS. AS THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY FRI MORNING BEFORE TEMPS QUICKLY WARM LATE FRI MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SO RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE THE PREFERRED PRECIP TYPE. KETCHAM FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL KEEP THE RH'S ON THE HIGHER SIDE WHICH WILL KEEP THE FIRE DANGER IN CHECK THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. WITH THE FARTHER WESTWARD TRACK OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE FORCING SHOULD DROP OFF PRETTY QUICK AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES PAST THE AREA AND EXPECT THAT BY 12Z THE SNOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY, AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND BEGINS TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. AS THIS WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST A NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
327 AM EST WED FEB 18 2015 A SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING AND STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND BELOW ZERO IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
/ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA/ UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVHD THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. SHORT TERM PROGS SHOWING THAT THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH AXIS AND THIS LIFT/PRECIP COULD HOLD TOGETHER THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE DISSIPATING AND/OR QUICKLY EXITING TO OUR NORTH AND EAST LATE TONIGHT. LARGE UPPER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
903 PM MST TUE FEB 17 2015 COOLER AND DRY AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE REGION AND WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT.
The highest snowfall totals are expected to reside over EC KS into WC MO, where up to two inches of snow are possible, primarily between 4-7pm.
ON THE LOW END. ON THE HIGH END. FRIGID ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. WEAK OVERRUNNING SHOULD BEGIN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS HIGH AS AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE SHOOTS SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. AS THIS HIGH DRIFTS FARTHER TO THE EAST AND MID LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY (THEN SOUTHWESTERLY)WE WILL BE ABLE TO BEGIN TAPPING INTO SOME GULF MOISTURE. THE MOST DIFFICULT SOLUTION WILL BE DETERMINING WHERE THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL SET UP. THE 12Z ECMWF IS STILL FARTHER N/W THAN THE GFS AND HENCE WARMER.
/ISSUED 1050 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2015/ UPPER TROF AXIS SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING HAS HELPED GENERATE A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EXTREME SE OK AND MUCH OF THE STATE OF AR. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER OVER OUR SW AR COUNTIES BUT PROFILES DO SUPPORT AT LEAST A -RA/-SN MIX SO HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW OVER OUR AR COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE THIS BAND GRADUALLY DIMINISHES. OVERNIGHT LOWS HAVE ALSO BEEN TWEAKED BASED ON CURRENT OBS AS WELL AS SKY COVER TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE PASSING TROF.
UNLIMITED VSBY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO TEXAS. WINDS DIMINISH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE TEXAS COAST. /ISSUED 157 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2015/ SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS TX/LA AND NW GULF THIS AFTERNOON.
LIMITED AMOUNT OF SNOW COVER WILL CAP COOLING POTENTIAL AND HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE TO THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
330 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2015 Northwesterly flow in the wake of a departing upper level low will yield mostly clear skies and temperatures above normal the remainder of the week. Things begin to change over the weekend as an upper ridge becomes amplified off the west coast opening up the central U.
THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF THE TN RIVER.
258 AM CST WED FEB 18 2015 A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WILL PROVIDE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH TEXAS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.