Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OFF THE COAST INCREASES ONSHORE FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER BY FRIDAY EVENING WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER NEVADA.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
245 PM EDT THU APR 21 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. THE UPR LOW/TROF. AND IT/S ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT. THOUGH SHOWER CHCS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE UPR TROF AXIS MOVES E OF THE AREA SAT MRNG. BUILDING RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
LATER TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SWING INTO THE REGION. BUT LOOK FOR SHOWERS TO AGAIN DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND CIGS TO LOWER (LIKELY TO IFR) IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
351 PM MDT THU APR 21 2016 A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE IS MAKING IT/S WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TODAY. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE ROCKIES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS OUR NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM SPREADS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS.
244 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016 WV IMAGERY SHOWS SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTN. WILL CONTINUE DIVING DOWN THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND WILL REINFORCE THE COLD FRONT AND FORCE IT THROUGH OUR REGION.
249 PM EDT THU APR 21 2016 KBYX DETECTS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER KEYS. AS WELL AS OVER NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING THE LOWER KEYS. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN RAIN COOLED AREAS TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ELSEWHERE.
MAIN FOCUS ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN FAR WESTERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA AS WELL AS UPSTREAM NEAR THE UPPER LOW. ARC OF STORMS ONGOING CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW FROM WATERLOO IOWA TO MOLINE TO WEST OF SPRINGFIELD IL. WITH SLOW FALL OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN AND LINGER FRIDAY. GIVEN UPSTREAM TRENDS UNDER THE UPPER LOW WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND. LUCKILY THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL IN BETWEEN WAVES.
1225 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016 Tight vort max in the center of a larger-scale closed upper low will drop out of southeast Iowa into northern Missouri through the day today. It wouldn't be surprising to see a few cold air funnels across far northern/northeast Missouri either, given the vertically-stacked nature of the upper low, very weak shear and the cold-core nature of the mid-level low. Precipitation will clear out to the east toward late afternoon and early evening as heating is lost and the mean trough axis pushes east of the area. Quiet weather moves in for the remainder of the week as broad ridging builds into the central U.
VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites as weak high pressure builds in from the west. Stable conditions over the forecast area will preclude any chance for a shower before subsidence kicks in behind the trof axis. /ISSUED 359 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016/ Isolated showers will remain possible this morning as upper trough axis passes however given recent trends in all data the overall coverage of measurable precip will remain very low.
A COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OFF THE COAST INCREASES ONSHORE FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COAST THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY AND BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD TODAY DUE TO INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW. COOLER AIRMASS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE PASSING SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE BAY AREA. STEADIER RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW WITH BETTER ASCENT FROM THE COLD FRONT AFTER 06Z. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BAY AREA 12-18Z FRIDAY. FREEZING LEVELS ALSO DROP TO NEAR 5K FEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. GIVEN THE LOWERED FREEZING LEVELS SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
352 PM EDT THU APR 21 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
326 PM MDT THU APR 21 2016 UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS NEXT UPPER MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AND MOST MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT. WITH 80S ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY.
226 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016 The cold front and outflow boundary associated with last night's storms has made it to the Rio Grande Valley, with cooler air filtering into the region from the north. Highs this afternoon are on target to reach the middle 70s north to the lower 90s across the Rio Grande Valley. There could be some lingering showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening from the eastern Permian Basin down through the Big Bend Area, though the best chance looks to be across the Lower Trans Pecos and higher terrain along the Rio Grande in the vicinity of the diffuse boundary. On Friday, brief ridging will develop over the region, with near normal temperatures expected as winds veer around to the southeast.
240 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR WEST WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF CHANGE IN WEATHER FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE REASONING BEHIND THIS DECISION IS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK STEERING FLOW.
/ISSUED 901 AM EDT THU APR 21 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY. AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA. THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY KEEPING THE HIGH RISK OF RIP GOING.
240 PM MDT THU APR 21 2016 UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 323 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016 925-850 MB MOIST LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. BUT COLDEST VALUES IN THE INTL FALLS AREA WITH 20S WHILE REST OF THE AREA STAYS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. FRIDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LIGHT WINDS AS WELL AS A GOOD DEAL OF SUN.
WARM AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER UTAH TODAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING PACIFIC STORM. MORNING WATER VAPOR AND H5 ANALYSIS INDICATE THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH /WITH CORE NEAR 140W/ CONTINUES TO CARVE TOWARDS TO PACIFIC COAST. DEBRIS FROM THIS TROUGH IS SCATTERING SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THIS TO REMAIN THE NORM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FURTHER ENCROACHMENT OF THE TROUGH TOMORROW WILL ENHANCE BOTH THE MSLP GRADIENT IN PLACE AND FLOW ALOFT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING E-SE FROM IA/MO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AND HEATING AND FALLING MIDLEVEL TEMPS UNDER THE 500 MB TROUGH. ANY RAIN CHANCE SHOULD END WHEN THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO OUR EAST.
THIS IS DUE TO PRE FRONTAL TROUGHING OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. THAT MAIN COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH AROUND 12Z AND THUS.
623 PM EDT THU APR 21 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. THE UPR LOW/TROF. AND IT/S ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT. THOUGH SHOWER CHCS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE UPR TROF AXIS MOVES E OF THE AREA SAT MRNG. BUILDING RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
634 PM EDT THU APR 21 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
225 PM EDT THU APR 21 2016 MOISTURE INCREASING AS COLD FRONT/UPPER LOW APPROACHES FOR A BRIEF UNSETTLED PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A 500 MB DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH WILL GENERATE ISOLATED SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT STALLS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER ACROSS THE UPPER VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. A WEAK GRADIENT ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A cooler airmass was spreading across the area, which will lead to a chilly night. We will also keep the forecast dry as an upper level low pressure system finally exits to the east. An upper level ridge of high pressure translates across the nation's midsection, bringing sunny skies and temperatures near 80 to the Ozarks.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM IOWA THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER LEVEL THROUGH MOVES EAST AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
356 PM EDT THU APR 21 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR/DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
HRRR RUNS CONTINUE THE EXPANSION OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE MORNING. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 11 UTC AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PROPAGATED THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 50S AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AND RETURN FLOW KICKS IN. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH COMPRESSIONAL WARMING TO PRODUCE TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
259 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016 THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT THE MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IS FINALLY MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA INCREASED THE CLOUDINESS TODAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.
WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING THROUGH FRIDAY.
210 PM EDT THU APR 21 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL SHOWERS INTO NY AND PA TONIGHT, BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
Ridging continues to break down as the trough axis translates east. Lows will be in the lower 60s which is about 58 degrees above normal for this time of year.
Anyway, observations upstream shows that moisture will be returning to our neighborhood, at least in the lowest levels by late this evening. There is nice agreement on the latest large scale models concerning the formation of low pressure northeast of the Bahamas, strengthening toward the southeast coast of the US over the next 36 to 48 hours. But moisture will be returning in the lower levels. Moderate easterly breezes will steadily slacken over the next couple of days as developing low pressure northeast of the Bahamas erodes the high pressure currently stretched off the southeast coast.
Lighter winds and slightly cooler temperatures will be the rule for Friday. An upper level low just south of the Four Corners will lift into southeastern Colorado by morning. Dry southwesterly winds aloft will return for the weekend as another trough digs into southern California and cuts off. The upper low will be mostly dry as it finally passes to the south of the area mid-week. A few isolated thunderstorms (possibly dry lightning) may affect the higher terrain of the Gila Region as a weak cold front drifts in from the north. Upper low will be moving through the four corners region this evening with westerly flow setting up behind it.
Northwesterly flow aloft persists over Northern California today, with high pressure over the eastern Pacific and an upper trough centered near the Four Corners region. Mostly clear skies prevail across the lower elevations. An upper trough will pass through the Pacific Northwest Friday, and form a weak upper low over central and southern California over the weekend.
132 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 High pressure will remain nearly stationary over the southeastern U. Temperatures will remain well above normal with highs in the lower or middle 80s and lows in the 60s. High temps today will once again push the lower to mid 80s.
359 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 Strong troughing across the southwest conus and ridging for the southeast conus has led to SW to NE flow aloft across the mississippi and Ohio River Valley. High pressure will take hold, generally to our southeast, leaving southerly flow across the region. High pressure will remain in control tomorrow. We begin the period more influenced by the upper level ridge extending west out of the Mid Atlantic Coast, while upper level closed low resides in the Central Plains states.
210 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 High pressure will remain over the forecast area through Friday. Moisture will increase over the weekend associated with low pressure nearing the southeast coast. Ridge of high pressure remains in control of the region with weak winds through the upper levels. Models continue to show surface ridging coming on off the Atlantic. This low will track westward through the period.
Latest analysis showed upper level ridging over the southeast US while a trough remained across the central Plains. Impulses lifting out of Texas northeast toward the lower Great Lakes have sparked several complexes of showers/storms on the periphery.
Friday begins relatively calm and mild under the aforementioned upper ridge, and much like today expect some afternoon convection to break out as the stalled front to our south overnight shifts northeastward as a warm front.
A weather system and associated cold front will shift across Orofino and Grangeville later tonight and then across western Montana Friday.
a closed low resides over over northeast montana and western North dakota. Behind this a meso-ridge resides over western Montana and southern Alberta. Farther West a large trough runs from the Oregon Coast northward into northern British Columbia. South of most of these feature zonal to southwest flow resides over the lower Intermountain West. The closed low over the area will tighten up this afternoon and then scurry northeastward during the evening hours leaving dry conditions by the early morning. the meso ridge to the west will move in Friday and begin clearing skies and partially warming the surface layer.
400 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 Bermuda High pressure will remain across the region through the weekend.
308 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016 High pressure centered over Alabama will gradually weaken over the next several days as an upper trof over the central plains states shifts slightly eastward and an upper low lifts northwest towards the Carolinas.
409 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 Weak disturbances aloft in an upper level ridging pattern.
Another impulse is progged to move off upper low as it moves further east tonight. Tomorrow confidence is a little better as upper low lifts northeast over the panhandles.
Dry and very warm conditions were continuing across the forecast area this afternoon with temps ranging from the mid to upper 80s in southern middle Tennessee and northeast Alabama to the lower 90s in northwest Alabama.
The arrival of a cold front tonight will bring cooler and breezy conditions for the Memorial Day weekend, along with a good chance for showers over the Idaho Panhandle and the mountainous portions of Washington. Expect increasing clouds through the day as an area of low pressure and associated cold front sweep down from BC.
as the long wave trough over the western U. 00z runs and latest RAP solutions with the low- level moisture transport convergence evolving northeast tonight. the low-level moisture transport convergence also is focused south of I-80 feeding a SEWRD propagation per Corfidi vectors. Long wave trough over the southwest U.
Otherwise, dry conditions with lows in the lower to mid 60s inland and around 70 along the coast.
Went ahead an increased the chance for rain and thunderstorms as well as QPF overnight as the models hinting that while the better instability and severe threat will be to the south in the afternoon and early evening, as the main wave lifts north overnight the low level jet will increase substantially with the main focus looking to take place along and west of Interstate 29.
619 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 Bermuda High pressure will remain across the region through the weekend.
Bermuda high pressure will extend over the area through Friday. The approach of another disturbance (responsible for the convection crossing the lower oh valley this afternoon) may trigger a few showers overnight across the far northwest-northern Piedmont. The continued modification of the low level atmosphere along with patchy mid level cloudiness will support mild overnight temperatures. A narrow ridge of high pressure aloft will extend west-east across central NC. The main forecast concern for this period continues to be the potential tropical/sub-tropical development of an area of low pressure between the Bahamas and Bermuda this weekend. The upper level ridge responsible for the recent quiet weather will break down as the coastal low develops. To the west, an upper level trough will linger for the weekend.
334 PM MDT THU MAY 26 2016 Showers and thunderstorms developed across the forecast area as a low pressure system moved over the four corners today. By late evening the chance for thunderstorms will quickly end as the low center shifts east. On Friday, a transient high pressure ridge will move overhead. Temperatures will warm a little on Friday as the high pressure moves overhead. The long wave trough will reload along the west coast during the weekend as the next low pressure disturbance develops over southern California. Models show this low weakening as it gradually tracks east early in the work week. As both of these features head east, high pressure will develop along the west coast. Then the west coast ridge will strengthen and move into the Great Basin for warmer and drier conditions midweek and beyond.
223 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016 Warm front was located across northeast Kansas at 19z with a large area of convection blooming on either side of the front.
/Issued 740 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016/ A broad upper ridge should persist over the southeast during the short term. with ridging dominating the remainder of the area. Upper low and surface reflection really do not make it further west than the Carolina/ Georgia coast or maybe the Carolina low-country.
324 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 High pressure will extend over the area from offshore through Friday night.
247 PM MDT THU MAY 26 2016 Longwave trough across the Intermountain West comprised of two low pressure areas. Satellite pix show one of these low pressures spinning into North Dakota, while the second one was beginning to lift northeast into Colorado from the four corners area. The low pressure area moves very little, located near the CO/KS stateline by Friday afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler Friday with highs only reaching into the 60s with perhaps a few 70s in the western Nebraska Panhandle. Cooler temperatures will keep any severe weather threat at bay for Friday.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): 500mb trough and upper low is centered over the 4 corners with subtropical high centered over southern Mexico. High pressure to build northward into Deep south Texas Friday night as the upper trough lifts northeast. Rain chances continue on the low end of chance the next 24-36 hours as the trough axis remains to the west of the area. For Friday the entire CWA is in a marginal risk as the upper trough swings through the state. most of the significant energy is depicted to move north of our CWA so the lower end pops still looks good at this time.
1239 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016 Showers continue to develop over southwest North Dakota early this afternoon and wrap around upper low located along the North Dakota/Montana border. Only some patchy fog continues to linger over northern portions of the area, though the low cloud cover has been a bit reluctant to lift and dissipate. Along and north of the trough light showers continued. Just behind the trough low stratus and fog have developed. As the upper level low begins pushing eastward today additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across western North Dakota and spread eastward.
/issued 942 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016/ The pattern aloft this morning features troughing over the western half of the nation with a ridge building over the Gulf of Mexico. The Florida peninsula resides along the eastern periphery of this ridge with a weak low to our east over the Bahamas and western Atlantic. At the surface, high pressure remains anchored just east of the U. east coast with a weak area of low pressure situated between Bermuda and the Bahamas. High pressure will remain north of the area for the next couple of days, keeping an easterly wind flow in place except for a turn onshore with the sea breeze circulation each afternoon.
415 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 High pressure over the southeast United States will result in continued southwesterly flow across the upper Ohio Valley through the holiday weekend. If a thunderstorm develops over any one area, readings will bottom out several degrees cooler - locally.
High pressure will remain over the area through the end of the week.
An upper trough is over Arizona putting the area under southwest flow aloft. The upper trough will progress closer to the region today with the dryline expected to be across the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern Permian Basin this afternoon. The best chance of storms and severe weather will be across the Lower Trans Pecos, eastern Permian Basin, and Western Low Rolling Plains. Temperatures this afternoon are expected to be cooler than yesterday and closer to normal values. The upper trough will move over the Central Plains on Friday and the dryline is expected to move to the east of the CWA during the afternoon.
235 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 High pressure will remain nearly stationary over the southeastern U. Temperatures will remain well above normal with highs in the lower or middle 80s and lows in the 60s. Opted to keep PoPs on the low side given low predictability of mesoscale features with synoptic scale support displaced well off to west-northwest.
In addition, mean 925mb temps are trending slightly cooler than yesterday, and as a result surface temps are running about 3-5 degrees cooler respectively. Warm air advection on Friday behind warm front which continues to move northward.