Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A weak cold front will move south into the area late tonight and become diffuse Tuesday. Instability appears moderate with the highest ML CAPE values north at around 2500 J/kg. Temperatures are on track this afternoon and should max out in the lower to mid 90s. Overnight lows in the lower 70s.
Areas along and in the northeastern-half of this area have the higher chances of severe weather. Tomorrow, dryer and warmer conditions are expected to prevail over the Tri-State area, as high pressure moves in over the Tri- State area. Daily highs will climb up into the low to mid 90s. A ridge sits over the central U.
Mid to upper level trough over the northern Rockies deepens as it moves east-southeast into the Dakotas on Tuesday evening. This trough in combination with an upper-level jet moving overhead will provide enough synoptic ascent and destabilization to produce thunderstorms across the region.
Areas along and in the northeastern-half of this area have the higher chances of severe weather. Tomorrow, dryer and warmer conditions are expected to prevail over the Tri-State area, as high pressure moves in over the Tri- State area. Daily highs will climb up into the low to mid 90s.
Ridging aloft will amplify slightly and shift eastward over the region tonight and Tuesday.
An upper level low will shift east of the Cascades today bringing shower activity to an end. A weak ridge will move across the area tonight and early Tuesday, giving dry weather.
1221 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019 Dry and much less humid conditions will persist through Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 80s.
123 PM PDT Mon Jul 8 2019 Cooler onshore flow will allow for below average temperatures through Tuesday.
High pressure will hold across the area through Tuesday night. In the wake of this front, high pressure will build back in for the later parts of the week.
209 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019 High pressure will maintain dry and much less humid conditions through Tuesday night.
In addition to the MCV, large scale ascent is overspreading the area as an upper trough approaches from the west. Storms should continue to develop near the MCV late this afternoon and evening, with additional thunderstorms forming across the western High Plains as the upper trough approaches. The upper trough tracks eastward across the Central and Northern Plains Tuesday. A cold front will develop southwest from the low and track into northwest Nebraska during the late afternoon hours. Warmer and drier weather is expected by the middle and end of the work week. The GEFS and ECMWF build upper level ridging into the four corners region and much of the Central and Southern Plains.
Rainfall rates will be intense given the high PWAT environment. Upper low propagates into central North Dakota by Tuesday afternoon.
Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s with clearing skies. The upper trough that will ultimately be responsible for any tropical development in the Gulf is currently situated over central GA, and will continue to track south towards the FL panhandle/northeast Gulf coast. Meanwhile, the upper level ridge will continue building eastward over the TN Valley through the first half of the week, keeping high temperatures in the low to mid 90s and dew points in the low to mid 70s.
looking at surface based CAPE values on the order of 4000 J/KG out near Bridgeport. Do expect severe storms to be on the low end though this afternoon. Showing a surface boundary pushing southeast out of north central Wyoming Tuesday afternoon with upper level trough moving through late afternoon.
Tonight the upper low will become vertically stacked over western North Dakota, which will in turn drive widespread showers and thunderstorms across much of Northeast Montana through the day on Tuesday. Tuesday evening the upper low pushes out from west to east, allowing precipitation to taper off, and upper ridging to return to the region. This will set the stage for a general warming trend through the weekend, with periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms as weak disturbances push through the ridge. An upper level low moves into Montana tonight with widespread rain and low clouds that will continue into Tuesday. An stacked upper level low will slowly drift through tonight into Tuesday. This low has the potential to combine with ample low level moisture to create the potential for heavy rainfall from showers and thunderstorms.
The wet pattern we are in is is courteous of a trough of low pressure that will be sliding south into the northeast Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday with the subtropical ridge holding to our east. As of this afternoon, the National Hurricane Center in Miami has an 80% of this low developing into a tropical system within the next 5 days as it gradually moves west into the warm Central Central Gulf. This is due to a broad area of low pressure expected to form over the northeast Gulf of Mexico by mid week and this low has an increasing chance for some tropical development as it moves into the North Central Gulf.
Cotton farmers will like to hear that a ridge of high pressure will be building over the next few days.
1216 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019 Upper level ridge amplifies and shifts east of the region today, as a trough over the Pacific Northwest advances over the northern Rockies. A few isolated or scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through mid morning in south central SD on the nose of the low level jet. Temperatures will be a little warmer today than yesterday, with highs in the 80s, but with dewpoints increasing into the mid 60s to lower 70s, it will feel muggier.
Upper level trough is moving across the Pacific NW today, with the axis across eastern OR at this time. Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed across much of the area this morning east of the trough axis, with more coverage than previously anticipated. The backside of the trough will move across the Owyhees and Treasure Valley this evening with isolated thunderstorms near this feature. Drier air will move into the region on Tuesday with warmer temperatures.
A well defined marine layer will be in placed along the coast with cooler than normal temperatures expected. However, tomorrow begins the shift to warmer drier weather, as temperatures increase each day to more seasonal levels for the remainder of the work week. The passing upper level trough gives way to zonal flow aloft over the next 24 hours. The clouds will help keep temperatures on the cooler side and sub-seasonal. However, tomorrow also begins the building of high pressure in the Desert Southwest. An upper level ridge will gradually build over the western CONUS for the remainder of the work week.
1237 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019 Large scale pattern has amplified over the last 24hrs going from near zonal over the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest to a ridge extending into Canada. Upstream closed circulation was centered along the BC/WA border with a deep trough extending down the western U. Meanwhile, the Central Plains was under the influence of high pressure centered over the western Great Lakes.
Convection associated with this trough is already breaking out over the Plains but is moving north/northeast and should stay west of the forecast area through most if not all of tonight.
Current surface analysis has this front nearly stationary across middle TN, as evident from dew points in the low 70s in N. Confidence is not high enough at the moment to go above 20 PoP given mid/upper ridging becoming more stacked over N.
114 PM PDT Mon Jul 8 2019 High pressure will gradually expand westward across southern California this week.
much drier air is filtering in from the West behind the passing trough. By this evening winds will relax as skies clear and this should lead to a much cooler night than the past few. With this ridge bulging into the CWA. dry and warmer conditions will come with it and we will see these above normal temperatures stay for much of the week.
Convection over the Dakotas associated with the trough will approach from the west overnight, and spread eastward across the forecast area on Tuesday. Given the cold front is expected to reach western Minnesota by peak heating, additional development (of strong to severe cells) could spark over the area on Tuesday afternoon/evening.
With abundant cloud-cover from a moisture-laden airmass, low temperatures should remain in the low to mid 70s tonight. Tomorrow should be a different story, as the upper ridge shifts into west Texas and NVA settles in across the area. 850mb temperatures will approach 26-28 deg C, which would normally support surface temperatures in the lower 100s.
1124 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2019 Drier air will move into the UT and western CO from the west behind a broad trough that will continue traveling through the area this morning. After cloud cover from the passing trough moves through eastern UT, drier air and stronger southwest winds aloft and at the surface will spread across the area from west to east.
156 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019 Heat and humidity roll on into mid-late week, but a weak cold front expected to dip down into the area late week may bring some small relief to our oppressively humid airmass. This will occur as weak upper ridging settles on the mid-south, and remains here at least until Wed evening. Late Wed upper ridge breaks down and by early Thu, upper trough axis set to push down across the mid-state. While this is occurring, pcpn expected to be minimal across our area through the weekend as building upper ridging holds.
Overall, looking at a dry night with high pressure still an influence across our area. Tuesday through Tuesday night, a surface warm front will push east into the area.
308 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019 Partial clearing will continue to work southward this evening, as weak high pressure over the Great Lakes builds southward.
A band of thicker stratus pushing south of Campbellsville into the Lake Cumberland region has kept temperatures 3-6 degrees cooler than areas north and south of these clouds. Sitting along the north side of the low sits a very weak cold front that is running through southern Kentucky. Updated at 320 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019 Tuesday still looks like dry and typically warm summer day, as high pressure aloft is centered over the Tennessee Valley.
323 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019 Surface ridging in place over central and eastern Missouri producing surface flow out ot fhe southeast across the forecast area. Good area of surface convergence along the southern and western periphery of the ridge is where scattered thunderstorms have developed this afternoon. Expect rain to remain in the area off and on through the morning, mainly in response to mid level troughing upstream.
Low pressure will move through the Northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. A strengthening high pressure ridge will provide more stable conditions, although a few ripple of energy may result in some isolated showers and storms, especially over the mountains. The strengthening ridge will also result in warmer temperatures to the region the rest of the week. The ridge will weaken later this weekend with a low pressure trough amplifying over the pacific northwest. Thunderstorms continue to build ahead of an approaching low pressure system, currently centered in central Washington. The low pressure center is forecast to move through Idaho and western Montana tonight providing shower and thunderstorm chances through the night. Drier air associated with high pressure will decrease precipitation and cloud cover during Tuesday.
334 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019 Surface data still shows high pressure center over central MI, with easterly surface winds over IL region. High pressure expected to drift off to the east, allowing the surface winds to shift to southeast on Tuesday. Models are not doing well with the next system, as upper ridge is built briefly over IL, with next short wave progged to approach region Tuesday afternoon, triggering chance POPS moving into the western parts of area.
Forecast confidence is high: High pressure will bring continued pleasant weather to southern Wisconsin through Tuesday. Approaching low pressure is expected to hold off long enough to keep Tuesday quiet with plenty of sunshine and near normal temperatures.
"Dirty" upper ridge axis extended from east Texas into the upper Mississippi Valley with several areas of convection along its western flank. Precipitable water values are progged to push to around 2 inches though the low-level jet is modest. Modest low-level WAA may bring warmer and nearly as humid day with heat index values likely topping triple digits, though a wetter regime will keep excessive heat in check.
An upper level short wave ridge over our area now will shift off to the east for Tuesday and think coverage of storms will be slightly higher.
/Issued 730 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019/ The weak upper low over GA should drift to the south today. The upper ridge builds to the east over our area through Tuesday. The surface boundary and upper low may provide some focus.
436 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019 Current surface analysis shows the slow-moving front, now a cold front, has moved south of the Commonwealth this afternoon. Upper level ridging aloft has also been building over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and will continue through Tuesday night. After highs around the mid 80s today, highs in the upper 80s are likely tomorrow afternoon as high pressure takes hold.
249 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019 Convective initiation has begun on the warm front in North Dakota, a few hours earlier than depicted in the model runs. On Tuesday, winds will shift to the west northwest behind a cold front and could be briefly strong behind the precip.
10-15kt southerly winds, and 2-4 ft seas will continue over the next few days, with low pressure west of the area and high pressure east of the area.
Temps have warmed into the 70s for the high valleys as of 3 pm, and into the 80s to lower 90s for the plains. Clearing skies tonight will allow temps to drop into the upper 30s to mid 40s for the high valleys, and 50s to near 60F for the plains. Max temps tomorrow will heat up into the 80s for the high valleys, and upper 80s to mid 90s for the plains.
A weak ridge will move across the area tonight and early Tuesday allowing dry weather to continue.
614 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019 Surface ridging in place over central and eastern Missouri producing surface flow out out the southeast across the forecast area. Good area of surface convergence along the southern and western periphery of the ridge is where scattered thunderstorms have developed this afternoon. Expect rain to remain in the area off and on through the morning, mainly in response to mid level troughing upstream.
931 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019 Kept the haze associated with the smoke in the forecast into mid morning Tuesday as winds remain light with high pressure east of the area.
Diurnal High Plains convection initiating near the lee trough and aided by subtle perturbation aloft may move into western Oklahoma and western north Texas by evening and could persist further east later in the night.
Surface trof draped across western SD is drifting slowly eastward. Thunderstorms are developing over the northern BH along the trof where CAPE values are 3000-4000k j/kg. Strongest storms this afternoon and evening will be across northeastern WY and northwestern SD where CAPE will be the highest, but will quickly decrease after midnight. As upper trof moves across the northern Plains Tuesday, light showers/thunderstorms will persist across northeastern WY, northwestern SD, and the BH. Temperatures will be cooler with gusty northwest winds as momentum transfer reaches 40 kt.
As the atmosphere recovers from earlier convection, we are still in a prime area of upper-level support as lobes of vorticity pivot around the area of troughiness wedged between ridges to our east and west. Southwesterly transport of moisture in the low- levels will be the main catalyst to prime the atmosphere for new convective initiation.
759 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019 High pressure will maintain dry and much less humid conditions through Tuesday night.
Have updated the forecast to drop mention of pops overnight as subsidence beneath the upper ridge in place will prevail with the loss of heating. Have also toned down the sky grids a bit to mostly clear as the low stratus remains progged not to develop/advect into Lower E TX until by/shortly after daybreak Tuesday.
A weak ridge will move across the area tonight and early Tuesday, giving dry weather.
Mostly prevailing VFR conditions result of building high pressure influences sfc/aloft.
611 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019 Surface data still shows high pressure center over central MI, with easterly surface winds over IL region. High pressure expected to drift off to the east, allowing the surface winds to shift to southeast on Tuesday. Models are not doing well with the next system, as upper ridge is built briefly over IL, with next short wave progged to approach region Tuesday afternoon, triggering chance POPS moving into the western parts of area.
Convective initiation has begun on the warm front in North Dakota, a few hours earlier than depicted in the model runs. On Tuesday, winds will shift to the west northwest behind a cold front and could be briefly strong behind the precip.
816 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019 High pressure centered near Lake Huron and slowly heading eastward will bring mostly clear skies over central IL tonight after diurnal cumulus dissipate this evening. There will be a general light easterly low level flow around the southwest portions of the high pressure system. Surface data still shows high pressure center over central MI, with easterly surface winds over IL region. High pressure expected to drift off to the east, allowing the surface winds to shift to southeast on Tuesday. Models are not doing well with the next system, as upper ridge is built briefly over IL, with next short wave progged to approach region Tuesday afternoon, triggering chance POPS moving into the western parts of area.
GOES-17 satellite shows a broad upper low spinning its way inside 140W this afternoon with a plume of moisture in advance of it rooted around 30N north of Hawaii. This is a strange time of year for the CWA to be impacted by an atmospheric river, but that's what will happen Tuesday as the offshore low wraps a warm front north over the region. Tuesday will be 10-15 degrees cooler than normal.
Upper level ridging is beginning to shift in from the eastern Pacific as the upper trough that has brought cooler temperatures exits eastward. Current temperatures are generally 4 to 8 degrees cooler than this time yesterday. The High Resolution Ensemble Forecast suggests there could be a return of some scattered low clouds tomorrow morning, but this should be localized to the Sacramento area again. Tuesday highs will be a few degrees warmer than today, but will remain seasonably cool. Upper level ridging centered over the 4 Corners area will begin to expand westward into the area mid to late week, bringing more warming.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 94 74 93 / 10 20 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 91 70 90 / 10 20 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 71 92 70 90 / 10 20 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 89 68 87 / 10 20 10 20.
400 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2019 A weak cold front will cross northern Utah through this evening. High pressure will build into the region through the remainder of the week.
A weak cold front will move into the area tonight and become diffuse Tuesday. Temperatures tonight still forecast to drop into the lower 70s.
723 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019 Current surface analysis shows the slow-moving front, now a cold front, has moved south of the Commonwealth this afternoon. Upper level ridging aloft has also been building over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and will continue through Tuesday night. After highs around the mid 80s today, highs in the upper 80s are likely tomorrow afternoon as high pressure takes hold.
306 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019 High pressure over the Great Lakes will build southward into Pennsylvania tonight and Tuesday.
Dry slot will spread north/east this evening/tonight bringing a break in activity to all but the DVL basin which will see more steadier rain closer to the upper low. Position of the developing upper low in central/north central ND later today puts SE ND into the RRV in a favorable location for low topped supercells, if we can get some sfc heating.
An upper low currently moving into Montana from the west will become vertically stacked with a surface over western North Dakota this morning. The upper low moves to the east this evening which will allow the rain to end from west to east.
Sunshine should be the case for most of the area with highs in the low to mid 90s.
412 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019 The weak upper low over GA should drift to the south through the period as the upper ridge builds to the east over our area.
The upper trough will move east tonight followed by an upper ridge on Tuesday for dry weather and warmer temperatures.
210 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019 High pressure over the Great Lakes will build southward into Pennsylvania tonight and Tuesday.
After that fog burns off, high pressure to our northeast will give us at least one more dry day. That should also mean a warmer day today as well, with highs a degree or two warmer than Monday. For tonight, we should start seeing dewpoints creep back up again as moisture starts to pool ahead of our next upper trough to move in for midweek.
114 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019 High pressure will maintain dry and much less humid conditions through Tuesday night.
1125 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019 Surface ridging in place over central and eastern Missouri producing surface flow out out the southeast across the forecast area. Good area of surface convergence along the southern and western periphery of the ridge is where scattered thunderstorms have developed this afternoon. Expect rain to remain in the area off and on through the morning, mainly in response to mid level troughing upstream.
148 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019 As high pressure aloft ridges across the Mississippi river valley, it will likely cap most convection. However, the models suggest a hint of moisture advecting on the west side of the ridge, close to the return flow southerlies.
Thick cirrus is moving into the region ahead of the approaching cold front. GOES-17 satellite shows a broad upper low spinning its way inside 140W this afternoon with a plume of moisture in advance of it rooted around 30N north of Hawaii. This is a strange time of year for the CWA to be impacted by an atmospheric river, but that's what will happen Tuesday as the offshore low wraps a warm front north over the region. Tuesday will be 10-15 degrees cooler than normal.
A weak cold front will move into the area tonight and become diffuse Tuesday. Convection focusing in the Newberry area near theta-e ridge and convergence. Low temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
1134 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019 High pressure centered near Lake Huron and slowly heading eastward will bring mostly clear skies over central IL tonight after diurnal cumulus dissipate this evening. There will be a general light easterly low level flow around the southwest portions of the high pressure system. Surface data still shows high pressure center over central MI, with easterly surface winds over IL region. High pressure expected to drift off to the east, allowing the surface winds to shift to southeast on Tuesday. Models are not doing well with the next system, as upper ridge is built briefly over IL, with next short wave progged to approach region Tuesday afternoon, triggering chance POPS moving into the western parts of area.
300 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019 Upper level ridge axis moves east of the area today with a weak wave expected to move across the region.
Forecast is on track with light NE winds with cooler airmass in place due to a 1020 mb High Pressure (still hit 90 in SDF) over the Great lakes. Ridging aloft will amplify slightly and shift eastward over the region tonight and Tuesday.
332 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019 Rain and thunderstorms this morning, another chance this afternoon and tonight, then cooler temperatures for a couple of days, are the primary highlights of the forecast.