Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Late afternoon surface observations show a weak cold front in place from just north of Giddings to just north of Pleasanton. This should keep the higher rain chances east of the I-35/I-37 corridors tonight. The warm air advection pattern strengthens on Tuesday as an upper level low pressure system approaches from the west. Highs will also be cooler with lower 50s in the Hill Country to lower 60s in the coastal plains. For late Tuesday afternoon and evening, we can't completely rule out a strong storm or two across the coastal plains with a lingering frontal boundary and some lift associated with the upper level trough.
A low pressure system currently moving into the Missouri Valley will be the main focus early in the forecast period.
202 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017 The upper low that brought the rain to the area has moved off. Now a secondary trough digging across the 4 corners region will develop a cut off low along the US/Mex border tomorrow that will wander northward.
While some current surface observations are reporting snow, temperatures will hover near freezing for the remainder of the afternoon. This will lead to the chance for some freezing rain/ice pellets/sleet to mix into the snow. As low pressure slides northeastward, precipitation will quickly end from west to east. Overnight low temperatures drop into the low to mid teens. Pine Ridge region could drop into the single digits as clouds clear out overnight up there. Dry conditions continue through Tuesday as high pressure builds across the northern Plains.
Mild conditions will continue across the forecast area today with highs again warming into the low and middle 70s and lows tonight ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s. Ridging aloft built into the region from the southeast, will cause an upper level low to lift northeast from the Southern Plains towards the Great Lakes region through tonight. During this time, southwest flow aloft will increase across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. This low will also drag a cold front towards, and eventually into, the northwest portion of the forecast area late tonight into early Tuesday morning. It doesn't look like the better rain chances will move in from the west until late this afternoon and overnight, when the cold front approaches and moves into the forecast area from the northwest.
1218 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 High pressure will move east today as low pressure tracks north of the region. A weak cold front will then cross the state tonight. High pressure is expected to build back across the region on Tuesday.
An upper level ridge brought in the sunshine today with light winds. The result was a day that was generally warmer than normal, except for the river valleys where there was no wind to scour out the lower layers under the snowpack caused inversion. Tonight a weak disturbance moving into BC from the Gulf of alaska will begin to knock down the ridge, resulting in a Chinook and increasing temperatures.
This afternoon, both Winter and Spring conditions are evident across the CWA as a warm front bisects the CWA. Temperatures south of the warm front have risen into the mid 50s to lower 60s with temperatures in the mid 30s to lower 40s north. The system that brought the weekend rain and freezing rain is still to west of us in the formed of the stacked low across east central Kansas. This low will move into northwestern Missouri this evening and through northern Missouri tonight bringing the likely chance for rain across northern Missouri.
Only minor tweaks to the forecast this morning mainly to remove fog mention and to match current trends with the approaching trough and cold front. As the front approaches the region this evening, wind shear may strengthen with the low level jet mainly from 03Z-12Z, but did not put in mention in the TAF just yet. Cigs will lower into the evening and overnight hours as shower activity moistens the low levels.
Temperatures should reach the teens for most of these valleys but otherwise are not expected to mix out with warmer air aloft. VFR conditions across the area through 18z Tue as flow aloft transitions from an upper ridge to increasing westerly flow.
239 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 Transition to southwesterly upper flow is in full-swing as the upper ridge axis shifts to the east coast.
305 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017 Closed upper low responsible for this weekend's ice and rain is currently rotating over central Kansas this afternoon. As the upper low passes, residual low stratus and some patchy fog continues through the evening. Weak winds however and little change in airmass with respect to temps brings highs Tuesday above freezing form the middle 30s to lower 40s.
An upper ridge has moved into Western Montana which developed a dry northwesterly flow aloft locally. A review of MSLP reveals high pressure, which will develop limited winds. Templer Previous discussion - Synoptic Setup: short term begins with a trough over the Dakotas running into Wyoming and then down toward the Four Corners region. A large Pacific Ridge nudges onshore over Washington and passes over British Columbia, cresting into a Chinook over the Alberta Frontrange.
and Tuesday The main forecast issue was evaluating the likely precipitation type with the incoming cyclone, and discerning the impacts that are likely to result from it. Since sub-freezing ground temperatures will result in icing on the ground where there is little difference in impact between a few hundreths of an inch of glaze and a quarter inch of glaze, the best course of action seemed to be to go with a Winter Weather Advisory rather than a Winter Storm Warning.
Roads and other surfaces refreezing for the upcoming overnight period is a concern. Closed low was near the Oklahoma and Kansas border. Will drop any headlines here shortly for areas near the Missouri border where temperatures have been in the lower to mid 30s. Any measurable precipitation should end by midnight or 1 am, but can not rule out a bit of drizzle or patchy freezing drizzle after that.
230 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017 A compact upper cyclone was across northeast KS this afternoon with a well-defined dryslot stretching across southern/eastern OK into southwestern MO.
The mid to upper low continues to lift northeastward this morning over KS. Mentionable PoPs will only linger for another 30-60 min across northern OK as a dry slot, and subsidence in the wake of the low, impact the region.
113 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 Warm frontal boundary lifts north today and tonight for warmer temperatures and rain showers. Cold front Tuesday night. Shower activity will increase across the region tonight and on Tuesday, as a low pressure system across the central U. A cold front crosses Tuesday for another half to an inch of QPF area wide.
201 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2017 Warm air advection will increase aloft across the area tonight and at the surface on Tuesday as an upper ridge builds over the region.
High pressure aloft will settle over the Great Basin for the first half of the week. High pressure continues to build over the Great Basin this morning, contributing to more and more stable conditions across Utah and southwest Wyoming. That said, a few pockets here and there have broken out into partly cloudy skies, but with most model guidance performing poorly or too coarse to make out the low level details, persistence should generally remain the best forecast across the area in the short term.
1227 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017 Temperatures are expected to hover at or just above freezing this afternoon across central Kansas along and north of I-70, so let the long duration ice storm warning expire at noon. There is some concern that some patchy light drizzle or some freezing drizzle could develop toward of after dark this evening over some of the area. However, areas of freezing rain and freezing drizzle, and perhaps some sleet, will persist for locations generally northwest of Pratt-Lyons-Salina where temperatures are at or just below freezing. Otherwise, with the exception of a cooler Tuesday, quiet weather and above normal temperatures will prevail this week.
1115 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 Rain will remain likely this afternoon, especially across far northern Indiana and southern lower Michigan where a period of freezing rain is still possible through early afternoon. Rain will become more widespread tonight into Tuesday morning as temperatures warm well above freezing and low pressure lifts into the Great lakes.
Can't rule out a few showers lingering a bit longer in Park county where flow does turn a bit more easterly under the shearing trough and deformation zone. With some melting and still relatively high dewpoints in most areas this afternoon, expect patchy dense fog to develop in the favored low lying areas, including the high mountain valleys and South Platte River valley northeast of Denver. Other than patchy morning fog on Tuesday, look for drier and warmer weather with a return of warm advection and sun filled skies. A Upper level low is over northern New Mexico putting northeast Colorado in a dry easterly upper level flow.
249 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 High pressure will build over the area through tonight. A stationary front over the southern mid-Atlantic states will move north as a warm front Tuesday.
Temperatures should reach the teens for most of these valleys but otherwise are not expected to mix out with warmer air aloft.
Still believe the greatest upward motions will occur in the best H50 diffluence region over wrn KY, and that is where the highest rain amounts will be placed. High pressure moving in behind this system will be of Pacific origin, so should stay with above normal temps as we head into Tue/Wed time frame. At the same time, the dominate ridging aloft along eastern Canada/U.
1226 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 Rain will remain likely this afternoon, especially across far northern Indiana and southern lower Michigan where a period of freezing rain is still possible through early afternoon. Rain will become more widespread tonight into Tuesday morning as temperatures warm well above freezing and low pressure lifts into the Great lakes.
Only minor tweaks to the forecast this morning mainly to remove fog mention and to match current trends with the approaching trough and cold front.
136 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 A warm front will bring warmer temperatures today, with increasing rain chances tonight and Tuesday.
VFR otherwise, especially in the higher elevations above the inversion layer. Continue dry and cold with upper ridge passing through and maintaining the surface-based inversion through early Tuesday. Ridge will shift southeast out of our CWA tonight allowing moist westerly Pacific air to flow inland.
/issued 1131 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017/ Low level capped inversion continues to be prominent in the 12z sounding, with most of the moisture trapped in the lower levels and easterly flow dominating through the lower levels.
Much of the CWA is transitioned to snow where precipitation is falling with occasional reports of mixed sleet and freezing rain. Temperatures will hover in the lower 30s for the most part with upper 20s in the northwestern portions of the CWA.
While mid level cold core low continues moving northeast toward the upper MS valley, its weak attendant cold front looks to poke into the northwest third of the forecast area after midnight tonight.
/Today through Tonight/ The freezing rain/ice storm event is well underway with widespread ice totals of 0.
1131 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 Low level capped inversion continues to be prominent in the 12z sounding, with most of the moisture trapped in the lower levels and easterly flow dominating through the lower levels.
Upper low currently lifting through the Central Plains will be staying well to our south and east tonight. The models are all in fairly good agreement with high pressure to the southwest tonight. Tomorrow, the trough over southern Canada deepens, with southwesterly winds picking up throughout the day. With some decent mixing, along with sunshine in the afternoon, highs should be again a few degrees warmer than today in the 20s to low 30s.
319 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 Weak high pressure remains over the local area through tonight. A warm front lifts north through the area Tuesday morning.
1107 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 High pressure will drift east and off the Mid Atlantic Coast today.
VFR conditions will prevail into tonight, however, late this evening, a cold front will begin to move into the area.
A weak trough has made it through the forecast area. Northwest flow behind the trough was enough to help bump temperatures up at Bismarck today. Upper level ridging remains over the area with a very slowly increasing surface pressure gradient. Generally leaned toward cooler side of guidance tonight, however we will likely see another wide range of temperatures depending on elevation and winds. Overall though, our cooler areas continue to trend warmer and perhaps most areas will remain above zero. Thus highs Tuesday are expected to be warmer, in the mid 20s to mid 30s. We did not go as high as most guidance and again leaned toward a blend of the cooler consensus of the raw model guidance, which has performed well lately, with our give SuperBlend.
Some light rain/freezing rain and/or drizzle/freezing drizzle will be possible until mid evening.
321 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 A ridge of high pressure will bring fair weather through Tuesday morning.
/issued 415 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017/ The nagging upper level low currently in the eastern Texas Panhandle will continue to spin northeastward away from the region. Surface ridging will work in tonight from the northwest tonight possibly accompanied by additional low stratus. Better agreement this morning that an upper trough developing along the Baja coast will develop at least minimal closed contouring tonight and Tuesday while a disturbance will rotate around the bottom and into west Texas late Tuesday.
306 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 A low pressure system moving ENE through the upper Midwest will drag a cool front through the area Tues.
1150 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017 Currently MVFR CIGs across the I-35 TAF sites as the cold front has become quasi stationary east of the Interstate 35 corridor leading to overcast skies and scattered showers. Isolated to scattered showers will remain possible as the front retrogrades westward before pushing south out of the region as a cold front Tuesday morning.
248 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 A weak cold front will then cross the region late tonight. High pressure is expected to build back across the region on Tuesday.
134 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2017 Latest water vapor loop was showing the intense upper level low continuing to spin to the northeast. This closed low is showing signs of blocking the upper level ridge from building into the Rockies and slowing down the erosion of the cloud cover and subsidence.
The upper trough over Oklahoma will continue to quickly eject northeastward through the evening and this should allow activity to briefly wane once again. What will follow is a series of weak upper level disturbances wrapping around a larger upper level trough moving out of Baja, mexico tonight.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): Latest surface analysis indicates a weak cold front draped across the central portions of the forecast area. Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley Tuesday and Tuesday night as another weak cold front approaches the area.
1001 AM MST Mon Jan 16 2017 09z surface analysis had weak trough/cold front from north central ND into eastern WY. Upper low spinning over western OK pushing a band of mixed precipitation to the SD border in south central SD. Temperatures will be cooler over the higher terrain today, but slightly warmer over the plains given boundary layer mixing. Tonight and Tuesday, upper ridge builds into the CWA with lovely warm air advection.
131 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 High pressure along the mid Atlantic Coast will keep partly to mostly cloudy skies and a little cooler air over the forecast area through tonight. The high will move away from the region on Tuesday with southerly flow on the backside of the high bringing warmer weather back to the area.
112 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 Weak high pressure remains over the local area through tonight. A warm front lifts north through the area Tuesday morning.
442 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 A warm front will bring warmer temperatures today, with increasing rain chances tonight and Tuesday. The main event will occur after midnight, as a strong push of isentropic lift arrives with the warm front, bringing more widespread rain.
Closed upper low will devolve to an open-wave trough while lifting out of the lower Missouri valley this afternoon and emerging near Lake Erie on Tuesday. Our primary concern during this period is with freezing rain chances into tonight. On a positive note, warm air pushing in from the south has brought air temperatures across much of the forecast area to near or above freezing. Temperatures in our far northwest have struggled to reach freezing, and pavement temperatures will likely take a while to warm. Will keep the Winter Weather Advisory for our north going for now, with the option for later shifts to cancel early once the threat of additional freezing rain/light icing has ended.
Satellite water vapor imagery shows upper low continuing to pull out and was located over northeast KS at 19Z. 1023 mb high pressure in NW Neb resulting in decent pressure gradient across NE & KS and winds have picked up some the past few hours. Temps continue to hover right around the freezing mark, give or take 2 degrees. If it were two degrees cooler near the surface, the impact would have been much worse. With the upper low progressing northeast, am having doubts about receiving much in the way of measurable snow. By Tuesday evening, the low pressure system currently affecting us should have filled a bit and be located over the Great Lakes region. It will take a while for the moisture return and thus not expecting any precip with this low in our area.
Reducing pops from nw this eve into Tuesday, with front returning just slightly nwd on Wed as upper low approaches. This low will reach the OK/KS area by early Thur, with tight gradient suggesting stg mid/upper lvl flow around base of low.
1234 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 Quiet weather is expected today with high pressure over the region.
443 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 Warm front will continue to push northward this evening. A cold front will move through on Tuesday.
227 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017 Large scale lift to the southeast of an upper level low pressure system moving northeast across the Middle Mississippi Valley tonight will overspread the Mid South later this afternoon and tonight. Temperatures should remain mild ahead of a trailing cold front that will move into northwest portions of the area late tonight. This front will slowly sag southeast through the day as the upper low lifts out to the northeast. but slightly cooler to the north.
Arctic high pressure is currently centered over eastern Missouri and central Illinois.
Temperatures this afternoon were cooler than expected and with light winds and clear skies expect good radiational cooling over the snow pack. The snow, especially areas of deeper snow depth will remain below freezing for highs on Monday. Have trended a degree or two cooler than guidance for Mondays highs generally in the upper 20s to around 30.
Subjective 00Z upper-air analysis indicates deep upper-level trough over the eastern half of the CONUS, with a southwestern US trough also in place. Coldest air at 850mb was centered over ONT, with the central Plains on the western edge of the thermal trough.
Another cold night in store for our region with many spots already in the 30s to the lower 40s. Only change was to keep San Francisco out of the product since lows will generally be in the mid 30s to the lower 40s through The City.
Made some upward adjustments to min temps in some of the lower valleys where dewpoints are relatively higher. The current satellite water vapor image is showing a ridge of high pressure positioned over the Eastern Pacific with a low pressure system moving into the Gulf of Alaska. Additionally, a trough of low pressure is beginning to cut off just off of the Southern California Coast. These two forecast models are suggesting mostly dry weather through the first part of the week as the previously mentioned low pressure system continues to push through the Gulf of Alaska passing well north of Colorado Monday night.
Hedged forecast cooler over higher snow accumulations.
1228 AM EST Mon Dec 19 2016 High pressure well to the west will begin to ridge across our area overnight and Monday and remain in control of the weather into the middle part of the week.
however lingering snow cover combined with the low sun angle favors shaving a few degrees off of those projected highs.
354 AM CST Mon Dec 19 2016 We will start off this period between high pressure across IL and low pressure across southern Manitoba with the parent low over British Columbia.
South to southwest winds overnight will be at around 10 mph as a trough of low pressure at the surface along the lee of the Rockies develops. At this time the latest 12z guidance currently appears to be coming around to the cooler solutions that the previous forecast had of temperatures falling back into the zero to near 5 degree range by early Monday morning.
1132 PM CST Sun Dec 18 2016 Quiet but very cold weather will persist across central and southeast Illinois overnight as Arctic high pressure builds across the area. As the high shifts eastward, southerly winds will begin to bring warmer air into the region beginning Monday afternoon when high temperatures rise into the teens and lower 20s.
MOS reflects this with a 10- 12F difference between the GFS and warmer NAM values at some stations. Examination of current obs vs MOS and raw guidance suggests that the cooler side of the envelope is preferred, which makes sense considering snow depth north and snow above a minor ice coating south.
Enough cooling should be made in enough time after sunset to bring temps into the low teens across most of the FA with some single digits across our northwestern zones. Overall highs will be in the mid to upper 30s and possibly the low 40s.
Strong arctic high pressure centered along the MO/IA border will move very slowly southeast over the next couple of days. The CONUS scale longwave trof will slowly weaken/flatten.
/Issued 600 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2016/ Tight temperature gradient present across the area today as the cold front settles over the CWA. Temperatures will rebound into the 40s across the north, but as the front continues to sag southward into south GA by tomorrow afternoon, the high temp will occur early with decreasing temps through the day.
Cold front will slowly move Southeast across the region Today, with strong high pressure building to the Northwest through Tonight.
A ridge of high pressure will keep conditions dry through Monday. Slightly cooler temperatures across the eastern panhandle are expected with lows between zero and 5 below zero. Plenty of sunshine will allow temperatures to warm into the low to mid 30s.
Therefore we still reside in the weak gradient side of the high and many sites showing winds out of the north and northeast this hour. That combined with the low stratus deck is keeping temps fairly uniform and perhaps a couple of degrees warmer in the valleys. The low level stratus is expected to hang in for a good portion of the day based on the forecast sounding data and therefore kept the clouds closer to the MOSGUIDE. Right now was a bit more conservative given the high placement and dependency on the clouds particularly in the SE portions of the CWA.
/Issued 402 PM CST Sun Dec 18 2016/ Large upper level trough over the CONUS has nearly all areas inland of the coast under pretty cold temperatures. High pressure from the Pacific will attempt to build over the area in the coming days, but will be suppressed by multiple systems swinging across the northern states. Models also show a cutoff upper level low off the southern CA coast, that will linger and help to advect warmer air from the south to our area.