Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
611 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022 (Today through Monday afternoon) Numerous storms dumped quite a bit of rain yesterday as a mid- level trough pushed moisture into the region, meeting up with a stalled front to the north. Rainfall is currently tampering off, but storms are expected to redevelop across much of the region by late morning as the trough moves further east. By Monday, the trough will continue its eastward movement with the greatest lift and heavier rainfall well to our east.
The clouds have been filling in across the local area, roughly in the counties along and east of the Mississippi River as they spiral in from the northeast on the backside of an upper low located across NE Illinois. Also updated sky grids to go more pessimistic with the Low stratus across much of the cwa. A few brief showers are possible this afternoon, wrapping around from the north on the far western periphery of the upper low, but most of the outlook area will stay dry.
1040 AM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022 Mean layer ridging over the western North Atlantic is potmarked with upper level lows retrograding towards the Bahamas and the Greater Antilles. Highs this afternoon will reach the lower to mid 90s. High pressure over the western North Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh easterly breezes across the Keys coastal waters today and tonight, with breezes expected to lull this afternoon and surge tonight.
High pressure will move into and over the region, ushering in warmer temperatures along with a brief reprieve from storms as they become isolated in nature.
(Now through Monday) Potential Tropical Cyclone 4 has moved inland, and the National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on this system. However, scattered to numerous breezy showers with embedded isolated thunderstorms are currently raging over the lower Texas coastal waters, and remaining deep tropical moisture in the wake of Four may produce additional isolated to scattered convection over the BRO CWFA today. However, for tonight and Monday, 500 mb high pressure building overhead, coupled with waning tropical moisture, will produce dry weather.
Impacts in the short term will remain minimal with quiet weather and light winds as high pressure remains in place across the northern plains. Will see morning fog in the southern valley and lakes country burn off quickly with abundant sun allowing temps to climb into the low 80s today. Monday afternoon will see a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm in the Devils Lake basin as weak trough approaches from the north. Long range models have suggested the lower levels bringing southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of systems.
451 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022 Summary: After a foggy start this morning, expect quiet weather today as well as Monday morning with mostly sunny skies and near seasonal temps as high pressure remains over the area.
With upstream surface temps in the lower 60s and lake temps near 70f, there is a possible lake contribution to our ongoing coastal showers. But land temps rising well into the 70s, combined with an upper trof slowly crossing the area, will generate Cape over land again today. Instability will be highest in southern portions of the forecast area, closer to the upper low passing to our south.
The low clouds will begin to lift and shift eastward through the morning with the departing upper low, with clearing skies this afternoon. Winds in the lowest 4-kft of the troposphere look to stay under 10 kts with MRi values well into the climatologically favorable regime to support dense valley fog into the main Mississippi River channel.
614 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022 (Today through Monday) Showers and thunderstorm coverage will be on the rise today and tonight as an upper level low rotates through the Ohio Valley and sends a cold front south through Middle TN.
High pressure surface and aloft will hold over the region today and Monday with strong subsidence persisting over the region. Weak high pressure will hold over the waters with winds less than 15 knots and seas less than 3 feet through the period.
632 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022 (Now through Monday) Potential Tropical Cyclone 4 has moved inland, and the National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on this system. However, scattered to numerous breezy showers with embedded isolated thunderstorms are currently raging over the lower Texas coastal waters, and remaining deep tropical moisture in the wake of Four may produce additional isolated to scattered convection over the BRO CWFA today. However, for tonight and Monday, 500 mb high pressure building overhead, coupled with waning tropical moisture, will produce dry weather.
This ridge is expected to shift further east later in the day. Aloft a ridge of high pressure across the intermountain west is expected to gradually shift east over the next few days. As this ridge pushes east.
An upper ridge will extend from the Desert Southwest into the Northern and Central Plains, while an upper trough will extend south from the eastern Great Lakes into the Midwest. Warmer air aloft and mainly sunny skies today. Sunday night and Monday, the upper ridge will continue to build into the region. Highs were raised above the latest model blend closer to the warmer MAV guidance. Highs forecast to reach the low to mid 90s.
High pressure will ensure mainly dry weather through the week ahead. An upper-level trough centered well offshore is forcing a few thunderstorms early this morning, beyond about 132W longitude. That system will however begin to put a dent in the upper-level ridge centered off the southern California coast, allowing for modest 'cooling' of inland temperatures back a bit closer to late August normals through Monday. Stratus and fog is mainly limited to the immediate coastal plain, with very little inland extent, while temperatures across the coastal mountain ridges are running 10 to 15 degrees warmer than yesterday morning.
High pressure builds over Nevada today pushing temperatures near record highs through midweek. With a dry airmass in place, overnight temperatures will still cool to the low to mid 60s in western Nevada valleys. Typical afternoon breezes can be expected through the week with gusts 20-25 mph as high pressure remains over the Silver State.
1043 AM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022 Showers and thunderstorms will occur as low pressure tracks across the region today and tonight. Even with the low just east of the area on Monday, there will still be additional showers and thunderstorms.
645 AM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022 Low pressure moves east into the mountains by Monday. High pressure builds in behind it for midweek Update to increase rain chances faster over the southern forecast area as energy aloft works an area of convection across central NC toward southside VA between 11-14z/7am-10am. 5h trough extending from the Great Lakes to the lower Ohio Valley pivots east into the central Appalachians late tonight. An upper level trough over the Ohio Valley will propagate east through the Mid Atlantic during the beginning of the week.
636 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022 Overall the short term looks pretty quiet given the broad ridging aloft over the region. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure out west on Monday could spark isolated convection toward evening, but mainly west of the ABR CWA, so will keep forecast dry for now. The GFS is weaker with the system later in the week and warmer vs. the cooler and wetter Ecmwf.
Drier conditions works its way into the area as a ridge of high pressure continues to dry out the mid and upper levels. Northern and central Nevada will be sitting under a ridge of high pressure, while a short wave trough moves across the Pacific Northwest states.
656 AM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022 Showers and thunderstorms will occur as low pressure tracks across the region today and tonight. Even with the low just east of the area on Monday, there will still be additional showers and thunderstorms.
Weak high pressure will hold over the waters with winds less than 15 knots and seas less than 3 feet through the period.
326 AM MDT Sun Aug 21 2022 Upper ridging continues across the western CONUS and NW flow over the region. At the surface, high pressure remains over the upper Midwest while low pressure drifts over eastern MT through WY. A gradual shift in the pattern is then expected through the rest of the week, as the ridge breaks down and a series of waves push through the region.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 69 84 67 87 / 70 70 30 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 69 84 66 86 / 60 70 30 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 81 69 83 65 85 / 70 70 30 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 67 82 62 84 / 60 60 50 10 10.
236 AM PDT Sun Aug 21 2022 Increased onshore flow and cooler, but still warm, temperatures today. The upper level ridge axis that was over NorCal yesterday is shifting eastward this morning as an upper trough moves towards the PacNW. This afternoon, highs will be anywhere from 5 to 15 degrees cooler than yesterday, with the biggest cool off around the Delta and Delta influenced areas.
1005 AM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022 More showers and thunderstorms expected today as low pressure to our west inches closer to the Lower Lakes.
241 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022 A subtle wave and cold front moved through the area yesterday ahead of a weak ridge which has turned upper level flow northwesterly bringing relatively cool and pleasant conditions across the area for the next few days. High temperatures hover in the low to mid 80s for the next few days. Orographic descent across the foothills of the Rockies combined with diurnal heating and blocking warm front across the Gulf keeps temperatures quite nice over the next few days. The high across the SW CONUS expands eastward midweek nudging the warmer air eastward which could push highs toward the 90s.
On Monday, an area of low pressure will move into western South Dakota with southeasterly flow bringing LLM into the CWA.
Given very low LFCs and rich surface vorticity near the low, it's not out of the question for this environment to support brief non-mesocyclonic tornadoes. Later this evening, surface ridging and NE winds should shove the low south of the region ahead of very low stratus with light showers and/or drizzle at times. Off the Caprock, it's unclear how much convection can redevelop tonight ahead of a shallow mid- level trough in NW flow, but some models depict substantial rainfall once again.
1149 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022 Summary: After a foggy start this morning, expect quiet weather today as well as Monday morning with mostly sunny skies and near seasonal temps as high pressure remains over the area.
205 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022 (Issued 205 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022) Tonight through Monday night: Should see a gradual clearing this evening with high pressure building in. The high should dominate Monday with an onshore flow and then linger through Monday night with some additional fog potential.
High pressure will continue to dominate as we begin the week, with easterly flow remaining in place. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices in the triple digits.
1227 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022 Upper low crossing the southern Great Lakes will continue to spark showers and storms at times through Today.
There are a few showers/storms occurring in vicinity of the upper low over the Rockies.
1203 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022 (Today through Monday afternoon) Numerous storms dumped quite a bit of rain yesterday as a mid- level trough pushed moisture into the region, meeting up with a stalled front to the north. Rainfall is currently tampering off, but storms are expected to redevelop across much of the region by late morning as the trough moves further east. By Monday, the trough will continue its eastward movement with the greatest lift and heavier rainfall well to our east.
Cooler/less buoyant air as a result of the morning clouds have worked to limit much in the way of convective initiation, although a thin band of showers/tstms over the southern half of west TN is moving towards NW AL. Convective mixing in the lower levels should help with breaking the stagnant inversion, as this activity moves into the area heading into the early afternoon hrs. Given the cloud cover/rainfall, afternoon highs will also struggle to climb past the lower/mid 80s for most spots.
203 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022 Showers and thunderstorms will occur as low pressure tracks across the region today and tonight. Even with the low just east of the area on Monday, there will still be additional showers and thunderstorms.
We have cold front that is seen nicely on our visible satellite loops (narrow convective line seen) from near Ludington to just north of MKE at 11 am. Weak upper-level ridging on Monday will tend to warm up the mid levels and put a lid on convective chances, more so in western parts of the lower peninsula.
Northern terminals will likely return to VFR conditions by this evening as clear skies return behind the cold front.
Isolated thunderstorms are still expected to develop in central Idaho this afternoon associated with a weak upper trough over eastern Idaho. The remainder of SE Oregon and SW Idaho will be dry as an upper ridge builds over the area. It will be another hot day with highs around 100F in the lower valleys, including the Treasure Valley.
A cold front will move through the region overnight and bring cooler conditions to start of the work week.
Temperatures have climbed into the lower to mid 70s and with a light north breeze. Surface ridging will remain overhead tonight and will allow for a chilly night especially across the interior with clear skies and light winds.
The mid/upper ridge is progged to remain anchored across the Central Great Basin area while an upper level trough moves over the Great Lakes area.
From a flood threat perspective, far southern portions of Choctaw County have seen amounts on the low end of that range and this is the same area that is most likely to see notable additional totals late tonight and into Monday morning. Depending on if the higher clouds clear out, portions of northwest Arkansas could see patchy dense fog develop late tonight, especially at KFYV which had the heavier rainfall early this morning.
(This evening through Monday) Current water vapor imagery shows broad upper level troughing across the central Plains and the Rockies. A flat upper level high extends from the Gulf of Mexico eastward across south Texas and northern Mexico.
This break will be short lived as upper ridge moves back east mid week to bring a return of the monsoon flow to NV.
While temperatures region-wide are forecast to be cooler compared to yesterday, the day-to-day change will be less pronounced farther away from the Delta. Eastern Pacific ridge re-establishes itself on Monday, and will likely result in weakened onshore flow.
236 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022 Upper level trough in the Ohio Valley has triggered a few showers in eastern IL otherwise in the dvn cwa skies were partly sunny. High pressure settling into the area will bring calm to light winds, and clear to partly cloudy skies.
Thunderstorms over the southwest mountains not persisting away from the higher terrain yet. Monday will be similar to today, although the eastward shift of the ridge and monsoon moisture will bring thunderstorms closer to the CWA by evening. Upper low sits over the Pacific Northwest through midweek, helping to pull monsoon into eastern Montana for better chances of rain and cooler temperatures. Hot and dry day expected with upper ridge over eastern Montana/western North Dakota. With increased upper level moisture, scattered high clouds can be expected today with a stray thunderstorm possible this evening over the higher terrain around the Little Rockies. A cold frontal passage Monday night may trigger a few thunderstorms and set the stage for a cooling trend midweek.
This was due to a H700 theta-e gradient that setup over this region as the main low pressure system moved east across the Texas South Plains, and in a-way, pivoted over this region with good rainfall. The second location was just south of the CWA where good H850 theta-e advection was in place as the low pressure system progressed eastward. Some residual showers may linger across the far southern TX Panhandle on the backside of the main departing low pressure system, but should remain very light.
314 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022 High pressure is building across the Mid Mississippi Valley on the heels of last night's frontal passage. Clear to relatively clear sky with light wind should provide good radiational cooling so I'd expect temperatures to cool down to near the dewpoint in the low to mid 60s. Guidance has come in a little warmer toward the end of the week than previously forecast. long wave trough a bit farther to the east which allows the western ridge to build closer to the Mid Mississippi Valley.
Surface ridging will remain overhead through Monday morning, yielding light winds.
CAMs are in good agreement with ISO-SCT storms later this afternoon and evening focusing over the South Plains and departing southeast of our area by sunset ahead of surface ridging and moist NE winds.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 84 67 87 68 / 70 30 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 84 66 86 66 / 70 30 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 69 83 65 85 66 / 70 30 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 82 62 84 62 / 60 50 10 10 0.
The rest of tonight will be quiet as the cold front clears the area. Low temperatures will fall into the lower to middle 60s. The remainder of the forecast period will be dry as high pressure settles southward from the Central Plains and brings cooler/drier northerly surface flow.
305 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022 Temperatures currently range from the low to mid 80s across much of the forecast area. The latest surface analysis places a 1013mb low near Cleveland, Ohio with an attendant cold front extending southwest along the Kentucky and Indiana stateline and back into the Missouri Bootheel. The front will eventually stall near the Tennessee and Mississippi border, as the main trough lifts out of the region. Increased cloud cover and scattered showers and storms will keep much of north Mississippi cooler than normal throughout the week as well. CAMs are indicating scattered showers this evening ahead of a cold front that will move into the area overnight.
500 mb analysis this morning showed weak trofiness over far SE AZ and a mid-level high centered off the srn CA cst. This puts the western half of the forecast area under N/NE flow aloft which will transition east across the area today as the above mentioned weak trof moves east into srn NM. For today, looking at the latest CAMs this morning there is the potential for storms to develop over the higher terrain and propagate to the S/SW across the lower elevations later this afternoon into this evening.
122 PM MDT Sun Aug 21 2022 Satellite imagery this afternoon shows the upper ridge sitting over the lee side of the Rockies and northern plains, with the upper trough over the Great Lakes region.
1115 AM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022 Low pressure moves east into the mountains by Monday. High pressure builds in behind it for midweek Heavy rain for parts of the forecast area. Upper level short wave trough is passing overhead. This feature was embedded within a much larger long wave trough which was slowly moving east through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. and Rockbridge counties in VA where upwards of 2. 5h trough extending from the Great Lakes to the lower Ohio Valley pivots east into the central Appalachians late tonight. An upper level trough over the Ohio Valley will propagate east through the Mid Atlantic during the beginning of the week.
The overall synoptic pattern will undergo very little change over the next 24 hours, though heights begin to rise Monday as an upper level ridge once again becomes established over the Desert Southwest. For Monday we trended the forecast toward the warm side of the ensemble envelope, which suggests highs in the lower to mid 90s. As for the precipitation chances for this evening, trapped within the building ridge is a decaying mid-level low currently analyzed over far western Colorado. This low will bring weak dynamic lift to the high country and work on lingering monsoonal moisture for storm development. Steering levels across the High Plains are weak and once the storms move off the higher terrain, they should encounter a much drier atmospheric environment in far northeastern Colorado.
(Today through Monday) Showers and thunderstorm coverage will be on the rise today and tonight as an upper level low rotates through the Ohio Valley and sends a cold front south through Middle TN.
Discussion: Upper-level low from the last few days can be seen moving over the Great Lakes Region today on GOES-16 satellite imagery with wrap around clouds, that filtered back in overnight, continuing to lift and push eastward as the low continues to move eastward this afternoon. After a foggy and mostly cloudy morning, sunshine started to return to much of the area around midday as high pressure conditions started to move into the state. Winds out of the north have also kept cooler temperatures around today, albeit a few degrees warmer than yesterday with the slightly increased sunshine.
Although there will be a transition to low level warm air advection overnight, temperatures will remain on the cooler side for this time of year with lows mainly in the 50s. Warmest readings will reside over south central SD where highs will climb into the lower 90s, with cooler temperatures to the east - topping out around 80 over southwestern MN and northwestern IA. With the warmer thermal profiles, lows will not be quite as cool as the past couple of nights, dropping into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
In terms of temperatures, highs in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s. Increasing moisture is expected across the region as upper level low pressure approaches the Eastern Seaboard. High pressure continues to dominate weather conditions over the Gulf waters through Monday. Then, an approaching area of low pressure is expected to increase showers and storms coverage. High pressure remains in control across fire districts through most of the period. Minimum humidities are expected to increase over the next few days as an area of low pressure approaches the region.
At 230 PM, high pressure was producing an excellent Sunday in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. Winds were light from the northeast and temperatures were in the lower 80s. Dense fog will be possible with the core of the high over central Iowa tonight and Monday morning. A weak warm front should move north into Nebraska Monday afternoon.
200 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022 Key Messages: - Dry and pleasant start to the work week - Rain chances to round out the new week * DRY, SUNNY START TO THE WEEK Low stratus will continue to exit south/break up as the afternoon wears on, with weak high pressure building in later tonight - holding into Tue. Thanks to the high, Monday will bring the sunshine and dry conditions many hoped the weekend would have.
As ridging and dry air move in across Upper MI today, expect mostly cloudy skies to become sunny from west to east, with a couple of isolated rain showers and thunderstorms possible in the far east.
1246 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022 (Now through Monday) Potential Tropical Cyclone 4 has moved inland, and the National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on this system. However, scattered to numerous breezy showers with embedded isolated thunderstorms are currently raging over the lower Texas coastal waters, and remaining deep tropical moisture in the wake of Four may produce additional isolated to scattered convection over the BRO CWFA today. However, for tonight and Monday, 500 mb high pressure building overhead, coupled with waning tropical moisture, will produce dry weather.
Areas of dense fog will again be a concern tonight as skies clear and winds turn light beneath high pressure. Temperatures on Monday will warm into the low 80s beneath mostly sunny skies. A relatively benign forecast is in place through midweek as a broad ridge of high pressure works to pacify thunderstorm activity.