Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This clearing is caused by the main upper-level trough moving eastward into the eastern CONUS. High pressure quickly dominates as a surface and mid-level high drapes over South Texas. Thanks to the dry air advection, clear skies, and very light winds, temperatures will be cooler today and tonight with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the mid to upper 50s. High pressure shifts further south by Wednesday, causing surface winds to become light out of the west-southwest. This slight change in wind direction, will bring dry but warmer air into the region.
A weak cold front will back in from the north and northeast late this afternoon/early evening shifting winds to the north and northeast. For Wednesday, high pressure ridging will remain just to the west of Montana resulting in a northwest flow aloft across our forecast area. Northerly breezes behind this evenings front will allow temperatures to be much cooler with most locations in the 60s. However, with the cooler temperatures and humidities expected to be above 20 percent for most of the day, fire concerns are low at this time.
A strong and highly amplified 2+ height anomaly ridge with a 5 to 10 year return interval will remain stationary over the W coastal states into Old Mexico through the short-term forecast period. The strong ridge and periods of downslope winds will result in a dry air mass, but fortunately the Ely winds will weakening today with relatively a light wind regime through the rest of the forecast period. Humidity recovery will remain poor to moderate over the higher terrain due to a strong subsidence inversion.
558 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Today is looking to warm up a little more than yesterday as the deep longwave trough over midwest starts to shift to the east allowing some ridging and WAA to move into the area. The warm up will continue into Wednesday, but mostly south of HWY 36 as a dry cold front pushes into the area from the north. This will keep northern Missouri slightly cooler, and definitely drier as dewpoints will fall into the 30s by the afternoon.
Forecast Summary: One day of above-normal temperatures today will be followed by cooler-than-normal temps through the weekend as a couple of shots of cooler air plunge through the Plains.
/issued 409 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020/ Fall will be in full effect this week as another cold front will move through the region to usher in a reinforcing shot of cooler air later on this week. The upper trough pushes east on Wednesday and SW surface flow develops resulting in milder temps with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
As predicted yesterday, a secondary trough and closed low is making its way down across eastern Iowa and western Illinois at this time. The main difference from yesterday is that the upper low will slide southeast and be situated just to our north later today, instead of further west as was predicted yesterday. While a few sprinkles are possible just about anywhere today, guidance is hinting at the possibility of a few showers in our eastern sections this afternoon with instability due to afternoon heating and the placement of the upper trough at that time. The upper trough moves east this evening and northwesterly flow commencing behind it with moisture profiles drying out a bit. An 850mb temperature ridge slides south into the area for Wednesday.
and Wednesday An upper level trough will stay entrenched across the western Great Lakes region through the middle of the week.
Anticipating enough partial heating for forecast high temperatures in the lower-mid 80s to be realized Today. SSW winds will increase to Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) levels this afternoon over the outer waters ahead of an approaching cold front with afternoon thunderstorms moving offshore of the local coast into the early evening. The cold front will press south across the local waters this evening trailed by a wind shift to the NW and continued SCEC conditions over the outer waters with winds strengthening over the near shore waters trailing the front to SCEC as well.
640 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020 A mid/upper trough over the Middle Mississippi Valley area tonight will move over the Ohio Valley area later today while NNW mid/upper flow prevails across the Central Plains states. Moderating temperatures are expected again for much of southern KS on Wednesday, although an approaching cold front may keep highs in the 70s across portions of central KS.
539 AM PDT Tue Sep 29 2020 High pressure will be anchored over the West this week bringing our region a prolonged period of warm and dry weather.
409 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Fall will be in full effect this week as another cold front will move through the region to usher in a reinforcing shot of cooler air later on this week. The upper trough pushes east on Wednesday and SW surface flow develops resulting in milder temps with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
1030 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Morning showers along the coast, followed by showers and TSTMs late today and tonight as a cold front moves through. High pressure in wake of this front, will bring cooler and drier air through the remainder of the period. Cold air advection already underway before daybreak Wednesday and min-T will be notably cooler at sunrise, widespread 60s. Very quiet weather expected for the end of the work week as deep mid level troughing will dominate across the eastern third of the conus.
Cool, dry northwesterly flow aloft remains in place as a strong ridge continues to build in from the west. Wednesday, exactly the same thing as the high continues to build in. High pressure remains in control with warm temperatures still in the forecast.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): High pressure at both the low and mid levels will continue to build across western and central Texas with pleasant and dry conditions. Continued northerly flow into Tuesday night will allow for cooler temperatures to remain in place with highs today in the low to mid 80s with overnight temperatures falling into the 50s.
Our forecast has changed very little as the models continue to forecast a high amplitude ridge over the western U.
Stronger cold air advection is expected overnight tonight behind a cold front leading to an increase in winds after midnight.
628 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Morning showers along the coast, followed by showers and TSTMs late today and tonight as a cold front moves through. High pressure in wake of this front, will bring cooler and drier air through the remainder of the period. Cold air advection already underway before daybreak Wednesday and min-T will be notably cooler at sunrise, widespread 60s. Very quiet weather expected for the end of the work week as deep mid level troughing will dominate across the eastern third of the conus.
/EC/ Today through tonight: The anomalous weather pattern in the near term will feature a highly amplified western CONUS ridge and eastern CONUS trough. Clear skies and light wind tonight will result in rather ideal nocturnal cooling conditions and this should send temperatures down to the upper 40s for the normally cooler spots.
High pressure building over the region will result in a gradual warming trend through the middle of the week, with dry weather persisting through the upcoming weekend.
305 AM MST Tue Sep 29 2020 Dry conditions and clear skies will continue this week as strong high pressure remains entrenched across the Western United States. This is associated with a sprawling ridge across the intermountain West and a trough across the eastern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure across the southern Rockies has tightened the local pressure gradient. Breezy conditions will be the main weather story today across the lower deserts with occasional wind gusts of 20-25 mph into the early afternoon. Given the stronger winds in the lower levels, it is not entirely surprising both the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles show a relatively large spread in temperatures. Latest models remain in good agreement indicating the anticyclone across Arizona will weaken through midweek, only to be reinforced by another broad anticyclone across the western states into the weekend.
High pressure will push temperatures back to near record levels the second half of the week into the weekend. Our weather will be dominated by a strong ridge of high pressure from the west coast into the Great Basin and desert southwest for the next 7 days.
628 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020 A slow moving cold front will stall over NY and PA today, bringing steady rain to our region. Cooler, seasonable temperatures will arrive by Wednesday. A cold front will stall across the I-81 corridor today. Cold front will be well to our east by Wednesday evening, but but deep upper trough will be digging into the region.
424 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 08z surface analysis had warm front from central ND into southern WY. Water vapour loop depicted upper ridge over the western CONUS with upper low spinning north of the Great Lakes. Today/tonight, warm front moves through the CWA with modest low level warm air advection and some high clouds zipping through. Tonight, a dry cold front moves into the CWA late. Wednesday, gusty northwest winds expected given tighter gradient behind cold front and sustained, but modest cold air advection. Temperatures will be 10F cooler than today.
An anomalously strong high pressure ridge persists aloft over much of northern CA.
838 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Strong high pressure aloft will dominate our weather today. Lee side troffing allowed foothills winds to increase last night, and gusts are still exceeding 30 mph at Big Timber and Harlowton. A weak cold front will back in from the north and northeast late this afternoon/early evening shifting winds to the north and northeast. For Wednesday, high pressure ridging will remain just to the west of Montana resulting in a northwest flow aloft across our forecast area. Northerly breezes behind this evenings front will allow temperatures to be much cooler with most locations in the 60s. However, with the cooler temperatures and humidities expected to be above 20 percent for most of the day, fire concerns are low at this time.
Temperatures will trend noticeably cooler today and remain below average into the weekend. Rain tapers to scattered showers from west to east late tonight into Wednesday morning, as the cold front reaches the Mid Atlantic coast. Temperatures will trend noticeably cooler behind the front and will even drop a few degrees this afternoon (non-diurnal trend with morning highs in the Alleghenies). Highs will be 10 to 20 degrees cooler (24hr change) from yesterday ranging from the mid-upper 50s over the Alleghenies to the low 70s in the far southeast. Amplifying upper trough over the Great Lakes/Midwest will maintain broad cyclonic flow through midweek. Cooler air aloft will provide instability for scattered showers near and downwind of Lake Erie.
A decent cold front will race south late tonight into early Wednesday morning making for a cooler day with breezy north northwest winds around 20 to 25 mph gusting to around 30 mph. Temperatures although cooler will not be too bad, from the upper 60s in Ord, to the lower 70s along I-80 and upper 70s over north central Kansas. This is when the heart of the cooler air will settle across our forecast area.
530 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Expect dry weather conditions to prevail over the next several days as high pressure builds across the Pacific Northwest.
High amplitude troughing now entrenched throughout the central U. Southeast Michigan will maintain a position within the immediately downstream flank of the mean trough axis today, leaving low to mid level southwest flow to govern conditions during the daylight period. An area of convergence will emerge late today, as the pressure gradient responds to height falls associated with the inbound trough axis. A deeper layer of cold, moist cyclonic flow derived from the resident upper trough axis will then define conditions Wednesday. The strongest updrafts may offer a few instances of lightning, small hail and gusty winds given the magnitude of lapse rates, suppressed freezing levels and a very dry sub-cloud layer.
(Today and tonight) It's a chilly start to the day across West Central Texas, with temperatures as of 400 AM in the lower to mid 40s. Our area will remain under deep northerly flow aloft this afternoon, between an upper level high over the Four Corners region and an upper level low over the eastern CONUS.
Issued by National Weather Service Glasgow MT 422 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Expect dry weather conditions to prevail over the next several days as high pressure builds across the Pacific Northwest.
1046 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020 A tenacious low-level ridge axis persists across South Florida, despite the approaching cold front over the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle southeast breezes will become southerly this afternoon and tonight as a cold front approaches from the Gulf of Mexico.
Rain chances will steadily increase throughout the area as the day progresses with the highest PoP chances (70 to 80 percent) occurring in Lake, Orange, Seminole, Volusia, northern Brevard, western Osceola, and northwestern Okeechobee counties. Max temps will be in the upper 80s, with an overnight low in the mid to upper 60s from a line extending from Titusville to Lake Kissimmee northward, and in the low 70s from that line southward. Numerous showers and lightning storms expected today ahead of an approaching cold front. The high chance of additional local rainfall today may impede, or preclude expected drainage.
Aloft, the mid level trough axis extends southward from the upper MS Valley toward the NW Gulf, roughly along the back edge of a band of altocu. A dry airmass on the backside of the trough will continue to spread into the region early this morning, with skies expected to clear areawide around or shortly after daybreak. As of 4 AM, temperatures range from the upper 50s acrs interior SE TX and cntl/western LA to the lower to middle 60s south. 24 Cool and dry conditions will persist for the next several days as a mid and upper trough remains over the cntl and eastern CONUS.
Wednesday night, the upper level trough will deepen, bringing a cold air mass south into the Northland.
Temperatures in the lower atmosphere will warm considerably through the day. Min temps are expected to be about 4 to 8 degrees warmer than this mornings low temps, with lows expected to be generally in the 40s most of the plains with a few 50s on the east slopes of the s mtns.
Dry conditions and clear skies will continue this week as strong high pressure remains entrenched across the Western United States. This is associated with a sprawling ridge across the intermountain West and a trough across the eastern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure across the southern Rockies has tightened the local pressure gradient. Breezy conditions will be the main weather story today across the lower deserts with occasional wind gusts of 20-25 mph into the early afternoon. Given the stronger winds in the lower levels, it is not entirely surprising both the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles show a relatively large spread in temperatures. Latest models remain in good agreement indicating the anticyclone across Arizona will weaken through midweek, only to be reinforced by another broad anticyclone across the western states into the weekend.
201 AM PDT Tue Sep 29 2020 High pressure will be anchored over the West this week bringing our region a prolonged period of warm and dry weather.
VFR/MVFR expected at TYS through morning amidst shra, MVFR/IFR at TRI persisting through much of the morning/afternoon with shra before the upper trough moves east allowing for further drying at all terminals. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 49 73 56 73 / 30 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 49 70 54 70 / 70 20 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 65 47 71 54 70 / 50 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 48 66 51 67 / 90 40 0 0 10.
VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours with high pressure in control. /issued 430 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): High pressure at both the low and mid levels will continue to build across western and central Texas with pleasant and dry conditions. Continued northerly flow into Tuesday night will allow for cooler temperatures to remain in place with highs today in the low to mid 80s with overnight temperatures falling into the 50s.
644 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020 (Today and tonight) It's a chilly start to the day across West Central Texas, with temperatures as of 400 AM in the lower to mid 40s. Our area will remain under deep northerly flow aloft this afternoon, between an upper level high over the Four Corners region and an upper level low over the eastern CONUS.
1010 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020 A slow moving cold front will stall over NY and PA today, bringing steady rain to our region. Cooler, seasonable temperatures will arrive by Wednesday. A cold front is across the middle of the CWA now. Temperatures on the east side in the low 70s while behind it 50s to low 60s. A cold front will stall across the I-81 corridor today. Cold front will be well to our east by Wednesday evening, but but deep upper trough will be digging into the region.
643 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Showers will continue today as a cold upper trough slides across the Upper Ohio Region. Rainfall is not expected to be problematic as per eastward trough progression and the influx of drying mid level air. The trough axis/cold front and associated precipitation will shift eastward by Wednesday morning.
1021 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Showers will continue today as a cold upper trough slides across the Upper Ohio Region. Rainfall is not expected to be problematic as per eastward trough progression and the influx of drying mid level air. The trough axis/cold front and associated precipitation will shift eastward by Wednesday morning.
624 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020 VFR conditions to prevail through the terminal forecast period due to high pressure becoming firmly established across the region. Temperatures to range from highs in the low to mid 70s today and lows in the lower 50s tonight. Highs on Wednesday to climb into the lower 80s.
Northwest flow as the result of a large ridge in the Rockies and a large trough in the Mississippi river valley will continue across the central plains throughout the day on Tuesday. Overall winds at the surface will also be out of the northwest and with plenty of sunshine and warmer air downsloping from the northwest we should see highs get into the lower 80s. With the trough hanging out in the eastern portions of the country and the ridge in the west we will continue to see periodic shifts between cooler and warmer air masses. Wednesday we should see highs get back into the 80s before a cold front moves through western Kansas during the afternoon hours.
A brief and robust warm up will occur tomorrow ahead of the next cold front which will pass Wed afternoon / Wed evening.
/issued 624 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020/ VFR conditions to prevail through the terminal forecast period due to high pressure becoming firmly established across the region. Temperatures to range from highs in the low to mid 70s today and lows in the lower 50s tonight. Highs on Wednesday to climb into the lower 80s.
SW surface winds early this afternoon will become more westerly by late afternoon, then northwesterly Tonight and northerly Wednesday, reflecting the passage of a cold front Tonight. Anticipating enough partial heating for forecast high temperatures in the lower-mid 80s to be realized Today. SSW winds will increase to Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) levels this afternoon over the outer waters ahead of an approaching cold front with afternoon thunderstorms moving offshore of the local coast into the early evening. The cold front will press south across the local waters this evening trailed by a wind shift to the NW and continued SCEC conditions over the outer waters with winds strengthening over the near shore waters trailing the front to SCEC as well.
Otherwise, unseasonably cool conditions continue with lows tonight in the upper 30s to mid 40s and highs Wednesday ranging from the lower 50s to lower 60s.
1150 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020 (Today and tonight) It's a chilly start to the day across West Central Texas, with temperatures as of 400 AM in the lower to mid 40s. Our area will remain under deep northerly flow aloft this afternoon, between an upper level high over the Four Corners region and an upper level low over the eastern CONUS.
258 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 A strong ridge of high pressure will persist over the West at midweek. The high described in the short term discussion persists through the end of the week, so dry conditions with warm sunny days and clear and cool nights will continue.
A large scale ridge continued across the western CONUS. Areas along the Oklahoma border may see upper 80s to near 90F as a thermal ridge noses east-northeast ahead of the front.
A south wind and an increasing thermal ridge in the mid levels will start the warming process for us Wednesday ushering in above normal temps with highs in the upper 80's and we may even see some low 90's.
Isolated to scattered showers and sprinkles have also developed along a weak trof oriented across SW Indiana and W Kentucky. With H5 heights about 15 dm higher, high temperatures will be noticeably warmer than today's values. Forecasting the highest values (in the lower 80s) over SE Missouri.
1228 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020 A mid/upper trough over the Middle Mississippi Valley area tonight will move over the Ohio Valley area later today while NNW mid/upper flow prevails across the Central Plains states. Moderating temperatures are expected again for much of southern KS on Wednesday, although an approaching cold front may keep highs in the 70s across portions of central KS.
Early tomorrow morning, winds will start turning around from the southwest, which will start to bring in slightly warmer air.
The difference today will be that temperatures will be warmer than yesterday, with above normal highs common in most areas. A weak back door cold front will then approach the area and move into northern Wyoming tonight and into Wednesday. It will be enough to bring some cooler temperatures though, especially to northern Wyoming.
359 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020 The forecast area remains within northwesterly flow between an amplified trough over the eastern half of the CONUS and a ridge expanding over the Pacific Northwest into the southwestern US. This will give us a quiet and seasonable evening as temperature advection becomes more neutral overnight and clear skies allow enough radiational cooling to fall back to the low 50s by sunrise. For Wednesday, recent models suggest the cold front dropping south from NE during the mid to late morning, which is earlier than previous models had indicated. For now, have highs in the low 70s near the KS/NE border and mid to upper 70s along and south of I-70, but could see these become cooler if the front indeed moves through the area faster.
957 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Expect dry weather conditions to prevail over the next several days as high pressure builds across the Pacific Northwest.
High pressure has settled in across south-central TX per RAP analysis. Given models generally underperformed with this morning's lows, have again gone closer to the low end of guidance tonight. On Wednesday the high will shift to our east and allow for winds to become southwesterly/southerly, though they'll remain light. Should see a warmer day as a result with highs into the mid 80s to lower 90s. Slightly more moisture will be able to work into the area, and tomorrow nights lows will also be a little warmer, mainly in the 50s.
Deeper mixing has promoted a stronger push of dry air downward, along with much warmer temperatures. Tonight: A secondary cold front will move through later tonight, and should drop our temperatures into the 50s. Warmer readings may persist along the MO River valley into Wednesday morning. Wednesday: High pressure begins to move down the Front Range on Wednesday, enhancing the surface pressure gradient over the Plains, and pulling much colder air southward.