Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures are in the mid to upper 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. A cold front sagging slowly southeast over the Gulf of Mexico and a high pressure system receding to the east over the western North Atlantic support gentle southwesterly breezes across the Florida Keys. Water vapor imagery reveals a long wave trough pivoting east through the Mississippi River Valley. The distinct pinwheel sliding east near the Texas coast and the enhanced drying over Mexico both indicate the trough's progression to the east has begun, corroborated by the encroaching alto and cirro layers spreading east into the Keys. As the ridge complex cedes ground, lower heights, confluent southwesterlies, surface forcing along the front, and a plume of enhanced moisture working northward across Cuba, will result in likely rain and thunder chances for the Keys overnight.
Therefore, have upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for Friday afternoon and evening, and issued a Wind Advisory for the rest of the area where slightly cooler conditions are expected. High pressure drops over the region Friday night, with diminishing wind speeds and cooler temperatures expected. Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s, with highs on Friday ranging from the lower 40s east to the lower 50s west.
258 PM MDT Thu Mar 24 2022 Overview: With ridging aloft over the western CONUS and troughing aloft over the eastern CONUS. NNW-NW flow aloft will prevail over the High Plains. With the above in mind, high temperatures on Friday are anticipated to be ~5-10F cooler than today -- in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
1103 AM EDT Thu Mar 24 2022 A cold front continues to march slowly southeast through the Gulf of Mexico. Across the Keys, breezes are humid and southerly, and temperatures are in the lower 80s. The 12Z KKEY RAOB sampled more moisture in the lower levels, with a lingering inversion based around 650 mb. Breezes will turn to the southwest and diminish this evening as a cold front approaches.
With south winds returning at 5 to 10 mph Friday, temperatures will be warming up into the lower to mid 80s.
Prefrontal trough has passed to the southeast of the forecast area. The better dynamics for stronger storms was ahead of this trough, so the threat for severe storms across the area has ended for Today. With skies beginning to clear from the northwest Overnight, and cooler air advecting over the warm and moist ground, could see some patchy fog developing toward dawn. High pressure will build from the west Friday, but a series of weak dry cold fronts will move southeast across area through the day. Lows Tonight will range from the upper 40s across SE GA, to the lower 50s over SE GA. Highs in the lower to middle 70s will be common.
830 AM PDT Thu Mar 24 2022 Through Friday, inland areas will continue to be warm while weak onshore flow near the coast will bring cooler conditions and times of low clouds and dense fog.
With that, highs will be warmer with temperatures in the lower 80s in the east to the lower 90s in the west.
132 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022 With freezing levels ranging from 2. These showers were coincident with the vorticity axis stretching from the mid-upper level low earlier this morning. Made some short term adjustments to temperatures, dewpoints, winds and cloud cover to reflect the influence of the upper low.
A cold front will continue to march toward and eventually through the region late this evening and overnight. By tomorrow, winds will shift to a northerly direction in the wake of the front and allow a slightly cooler and drier airmass to filter into the region as high pressure begins to settle eastward across the Gulf of Mexico. As a large area of high pressure continues to build into the region from the north, the winds will gradually diminish on Friday night as the pressure gradient begins to relax. This will allow for low temperatures on Friday night to drop into the lower 50s across Glades and Hendry Counties to around 60 across the east coast metro areas. The dry conditions will remain in place for the weekend across South Florida as high pressure remains centered off to the northwest.
957 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022 Precipitation has departed east out of the CWA, while a strong cold front continues to progress across the region. Therefore, have upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for Friday afternoon and evening, and issued a Wind Advisory for the rest of the area where slightly cooler conditions are expected. High pressure drops over the region Friday night, with diminishing wind speeds and cooler temperatures expected. Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s, with highs on Friday ranging from the lower 40s east to the lower 50s west.
The cold front that passed through the CWA this morning is now over the Dakotas. An upper ridge over the West coast will nudge east Friday but abundant Pacific moisture will spill over it resulting in increased mainly high and mid level clouds that last through most of the weekend.
It is actually a good bit warmer for NE TX and Shreveport and we have loaded in latest obs, but no changes needed to expected lows as forecast is looking right on track. Warmer trend coming with maybe some haze. /Tonight through Friday Night/ A reinforcing shot of cool and drier air will move into the region during the short-term in wake of today's cold front passage. Expect flow aloft to become northwesterly this evening, while high pressure builds across the region at the surface. Mid 30s are expected north of the interstate, with a few isolated freezing temps possible.
Chamber of Commerce weather is expected for the northern two-thirds of New Mexico through the upcoming weekend as the pesky storm system finally departs and high pressure builds over the region. Slightly warmer weather is expected for the weekend as a few locations will flirt with or exceed daily records, although an increase in high clouds may limit this potential.
301 PM MDT Thu Mar 24 2022 A 500 DM ridge is pushing over the Great Basin with ridging extending into the state. A weak trof flattens the ridge as it tracks across the northern high plains tonight. This trof will have an associated weak cold front which brushes the northeast plains of Colorado. 700 mb temperatures will increase slightly but with a weak frontal push and slight CAA near the surface from the easterly push, highs on Friday will be in the lower 60s. Conditions will be fairly dry with just some upper level clouds moving over the ridge during the day. This will bring gusty winds to the higher elevations up to 35 mph and the Palmer divide with speeds up to 25 mph with less wind elsewhere.
Through the short-term, a deep diving upper trough, sitting over the Midwest, continues to bring low precipitation chances to the CWA as a couple of vorticity maxes pass through/near the CWA. Tonight, used GFS 1 hour guidance as a starting point (it was the only model with any handle on today's precipitation), but with limited forcing in the low levels, limited precipitation chances to sprinkles in the forecast.
Northwesterly flow is expected aloft through tomorrow following the recent system and ahead of the building ridge in the west.
(The rest of tonight) Cloud cover was still hanging on across the far northeast corner of Oklahoma and also parts of far Northwest Arkansas this evening as the backside of the departing upper level low was trying to clear the region.
Colder than normal temperatures and diurnally (mainly daytime) showery activity will continue into Friday, as a series of mid/upper level lows rotate southeast in a developing northwest flow across the Quad State region. As this upper low moves over and southeast of the area around the midnight hour, rain chances will dissipate across the area. After Friday evening, broad northwest flow will remain as a westwardly tilted ridge axis moves into the area.
A ridge remains across the west producing well above normal temperatures.
The strong cold front that brought multiple rounds of heavy rain and strong thunderstorms across the area this afternoon now lies positioned from Cape Canaveral to south of Sarasota this evening. Although cloudy skies remain tonight behind the boundary, cooler air will push south to the area, with lows quickly falling to the mid 50s to lower 60s. Cold front boundary lies positioned from KTIX to KPGD as of 00Z this evening, with most strong thunderstorm activity now pushed well offshore from land. Cold front will cross the waters this evening with a wind shift out of the northwest increasing 15-20 knots so have headlined a Caution. Drier air will move into the area Friday behind a cold front, with another weak frontal passage reinforcing drier air across the region into the weekend.
646 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022 Upper level ridging will build across the Rockies through Friday. Downstream of this ridge across our area expect dry northwest flow aloft. As this occurs a cold front will dive southeast through the area late tonight. The dry air, light winds and clear skies will allow temperatures to fall into the lower 20s across portions of central into north central Nebraska.
745 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2022 An upper trough. The low tracks into New England coastal waters Fri with the front shifting east and out of the state tonight. High pressure begins to build out of Mexico and into the Gulf by late Fri. The cold front is expected to clear the area before midnight. Cold front has just about pushed through the southern terminals. A cold front exits tonight with some low clouds and light rain or showers behind it that continues over the eastern Gulf overnight. High pressure building in from the west will bring clearing with cooler drier air for Fri that dominates for the weekend.
Quite the nice day today with a weak cold front moving into the area. Temps climbed into the lower 70s across most of the area.
624 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022 Primary impacts in the short term periods will be related to strong winds behind a cold front this evening into Friday. Winds in northwest ND are already gusting to 40kt behind the cold front and as this front arrives in the Devils Lake Basin after 23Z (based on latest short range guidance) gusts around 45 mph would be expected. Confidence is lowered due to temperatures hovering near or above freezing.
It will be another chilly night, but probably a few degrees warmer than last night. /issued 625 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022/ GOES-16 Satellite trends place an upper level low over the Ohio Valley. The aforementioned upper level low will continue to move east over the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will warm into the 60s on Friday with high pressure in place across the area.
Dry weather through Friday with weak ridging building into the area.
623 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022 As an upper level low pressure system moves east away from Arkansas, dry air and high pressure will settle in across the state.
456 PM MDT Thu Mar 24 2022 Overview: With ridging aloft over the western CONUS and troughing aloft over the eastern CONUS. NNW-NW flow aloft will prevail over the High Plains. With the above in mind, high temperatures on Friday are anticipated to be ~5-10F cooler than today -- in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
621 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022 An upper low over north central Missouri will continue to weaken and slowly slide southeast through eastern Missouri tonight. With lingering cloud cover tonight, temperatures will only fall into the low to mid 30s. Latest deterministic models indicate that another deepening upper level low will slide southeast from the Northern Plains into northern Illinois on Friday.
824 PM MDT Thu Mar 24 2022 No updated planned to the current forecast as the upper ridge amplifies over the region bringing well above normal temperatures along with dry conditions through the weekend. Increasing high and mid level clouds ahead of an upper level low pressure trough approaching the coast.
The boundaries are defined by the high surface Theta-e values and moisture convergence on the SPC Mesoscale Analysis page. High pressure will build into the area behind the cold front and cause winds to freshen during the weekend.
748 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022 KEY MESSAGES: -A strong but quick moving trough will push across the area tonight through Friday. -Cooler and dry over the weekend.
457 PM MDT Thu Mar 24 2022 The short term forecast is dominated by the building H5 ridge across the western half of the US. Strong ridging will be in place for the weekend, making for warm and dry conditions across the area.
611 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022 Continued VFR through Friday with light NW winds turning southerly late this evening as high pressure departs into the Gulf.
208 PM PDT Thu Mar 24 2022 Through Friday, inland areas will continue to be warm while weak onshore flow near the coast will bring cooler conditions and times of low clouds and dense fog.
Warmer trend coming with maybe some haze. /Tonight through Friday Night/ A reinforcing shot of cool and drier air will move into the region during the short-term in wake of today's cold front passage. Expect flow aloft to become northwesterly this evening, while high pressure builds across the region at the surface. Mid 30s are expected north of the interstate, with a few isolated freezing temps possible.
Otherwise the forecast is on track tonight with lows reaching the lower 40s with a few spots reaching the upper 30s. This wave and the upper trough shift east quickly on Friday with clouds exiting during the afternoon. Warm advection will redevelop ahead of a cold front dropping southeast through the lower MO valley and Ozarks associated with another strong upper low digging southeast through the Great Lakes.
Primary impacts in the short term periods will be related to strong winds behind a cold front this evening into Friday. Winds in northwest ND are already gusting to 40kt behind the cold front and as this front arrives in the Devils Lake Basin after 23Z (based on latest short range guidance) gusts around 45 mph would be expected. Confidence is lowered due to temperatures hovering near or above freezing.
High pressure builds into the region today through the weekend.
/Friday through Saturday/ Dry, near-seasonal conditions are expected in the next 36 hours as surface ridging drifts around the Ark-La-Tex this weekend. Until then, northwesterly winds will gain some speed by Friday afternoon, as surface ridging to the west shifts towards the Gulf of Mexico, maintaining dew points in the mid-to-upper 30s. Minimum temperatures will fall towards the low-to-mid 40s as a result, which is slightly below normal for this time of the year. Saturday afternoon maximum temperatures will be slightly milder as a result, ranging from the lower 70s in northeastern zones, to lower 80s in Deep East Texas zones.
High pressure and lighter winds will settle in for the rest of the week with a significant warming trend occurring through Saturday. Well above normal temperatures are expected Friday through the weekend with high temperatures mostly topping out in the low to mid nineties across lower desert communities, with a few daily records possible.
1155 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022 An upper low over north central Missouri will continue to weaken and slowly slide southeast through eastern Missouri tonight. With lingering cloud cover tonight, temperatures will only fall into the low to mid 30s. Latest deterministic models indicate that another deepening upper level low will slide southeast from the Northern Plains into northern Illinois on Friday.
Afternoon high temps will generally be in the lower 50s. Best chances for any accumulations by 12Z Saturday will be along the higher elevations above 2k ft, and even that should just be a dusting or so through daybreak and mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces. Overnight low temps will be in the lower to mid 30s.
The focus is mainly the arrival/passage of a weak cold front as it moves through the area today. An H500 trough exiting Canada tracks across Minnesota towards the Great Lakes, and the energy associated with this system pushes a front into northern Oklahoma by mid-morning. Daytime highs will range from the low 60s (northern OK) to the lower 80s (southwest OK and western north TX).
204 AM EDT Fri Mar 25 2022 Warm, dry, and breezy conditions will give way to cooler weather Friday as a dry cold front passes by the region. Additional disturbances will pass over the area this weekend, reinforcing the unseasonably cool air and bringing a chance of light snow showers to the higher ridges of the North Carolina mountains.
Early this morning, a sharp cold front was moving across the central portion of Minnesota.
These will help keep temperatures a bit warmer than what we saw last night, with Friday morning lows expected to be in the low 40s for much of the area. Dry weather through Friday with weak ridging building into the area.
This will increase the winds a bit out of the north, but temperatures should ultimately be a bit warmer than we saw yesterday.
Overview: With ridging aloft over the western CONUS and troughing aloft over the eastern CONUS. NNW-NW flow aloft will prevail over the High Plains. With the above in mind, high temperatures on Friday are anticipated to be ~5-10F cooler than today -- in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
300 AM MDT Fri Mar 25 2022 Current surface analysis shows cold front well south and east of the region, but relatively tight pressure gradient still in place across the area is resulting in brisk winds early this morning to the east and southeast of the Black Hills.
This will push a weak cold front southward across Kansas this morning with northerly winds in its wake.
1225 AM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022 Upper level ridging will build across the Rockies through Friday. Downstream of this ridge across our area expect dry northwest flow aloft. As this occurs a cold front will dive southeast through the area late tonight. The dry air, light winds and clear skies will allow temperatures to fall into the lower 20s across portions of central into north central Nebraska. The upper level ridge axis will remain in place across the Rockies on Saturday.
Satellite imagery may also suggest that indeed the boundary is stalling, while decaying, as the parent low/trough complex is now seen pushing into the NE seaboard. Models depict veering winds to the north behind the FROPA, with the onset of cooler/drier air advection across SoFlo today. Meanwhile, high pressure begins to expand over much of the GOMEX and the peninsula in the wake of the front. Cooler temps are expected today as CCA establishes, with afternoon highs Some 7-8 degrees colder than previous days. But the coldest temps will happen tonight into Saturday, with morning lows in the lower 50s across Glades and Hendry Counties, to around 60 across the east coast metro areas. Even drier conditions expected for Saturday with high pressure well in place across the region.
426 AM EDT Fri Mar 25 2022 Low pressure over the Great Lakes will bring some scattered showers to the region today. It will remain chilly with highs only into the lower to middle 40s.
1033 PM MDT Thu Mar 24 2022 Overview: With ridging aloft over the western CONUS and troughing aloft over the eastern CONUS. NNW-NW flow aloft will prevail over the High Plains. With the above in mind, high temperatures on Friday are anticipated to be ~5-10F cooler than today -- in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Satellite/radar imagery shows an increase in mid level cloud cover across our forecast area this evening ahead of a trough that is translating across southeast LA/MS. A few very light high-based rain showers have developed across portions of southeast MS and southwest AL this evening and may continue to do so across the region into late tonight as the trough axis swings across our area. A northwesterly flow pattern aloft is expected to take shape across our forecast area Friday into Saturday, while westerly to northwesterly flow also prevails at the surface as a ridge of high pressure gradually builds from the Plains to the Mississippi Valley and the adjacent Gulf Coast states. Highs Friday are expected to reach into the lower 70s across much of the area.
The Evening Update: Ridge axis will be shifting Ewd into NV on Fri which should allow for some minor cooling through the Carquinez Strait and into the Delta influenced areas tomorrow due to increasing onshore flow. Numerical temp guidance this evening shows max temps only in the high 70s in the Vly for Fri. JHM Visible satellite imagery indicates high clouds streaming over the region associated with a trough to our northwest. Starting tomorrow, temperatures trend lower into the weekend thanks to an increase in onshore flow ushering in cooler temperatures ahead of an approaching trough off the West Coast. A southwesterly breeze is forecast to increase over the high Sierra Saturday afternoon and into the evening with gusts up to 30 mph or so anticipated.
1100 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022 KEY MESSAGES: -A strong but quick moving trough will push across the area tonight through Friday. -Cooler and dry over the weekend.
Although temperatures will be slightly warmer today and tonight, temperatures will still be cooler than normal. Early morning satellite imagery had the axis of an upper level trough to our east. This trough axis will continue shifting east through tonight and our winds aloft will remain northwesterly. Global models depict a closed low system over the Great Lakes with an amplifying ridge over the western CONUS and a weak trough ejecting out of the east coast off into the Atlantic. This pattern will sustain a warmer and drier airmass over the southeast region, allowing for mostly clear and dry conditions through the first half of the work week.
1141 PM MDT Thu Mar 24 2022 06Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours with clear skies and light winds as a ridge of high pressure builds west of New Mexico. Chamber of Commerce weather is expected for the northern two-thirds of New Mexico through the upcoming weekend as the pesky storm system finally departs and high pressure builds over the region. Slightly warmer weather is expected for the weekend as a few locations will flirt with or exceed daily records, although an increase in high clouds may limit this potential.
1151 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022 Trough axis swinging through the region tried to squeeze out a few showers.
These clouds will move out of the region to the east tonight as the impulse responsible for them moves into TN and dry high pressure in the form of northwesterly flow develops behind it both aloft and at the surface. While skies will be fair Friday through Saturday, a weak cold front will move into northern Arkansas late Friday night into Saturday morning. This cold front will bring a reinforcement of cool air that will keep temperatures near seasonal norms through the weekend despite high pressure building over forecast area. High temperatures Friday afternoon will generally range from the lower 60s over the northern higher terrain to near 70 over the far south. Lows Friday morning will range from the lower 30s over the north to near 40 over the far south.
335 AM EDT Fri Mar 25 2022 Discussion/Marine Patches of drizzle or light snow are floating through the area this morning, a product of lift and low-level saturation below 5,000 feet with the cloud layer out of the DGZ and warmer than -10 C. Precipitation associated with the cold front mid/late afternoon will start off as rain, but will change over to snow showers from northwest to southeast as the evening goes on. Areas of wet snow accumulation on grass and bridges/overpasses late in the evening may trend toward more frozen/icy snow accumulation on bridges/overpasses after midnight as temperatures drop below 32.
1148 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022 (The rest of tonight) Cloud cover was still hanging on across the far northeast corner of Oklahoma and also parts of far Northwest Arkansas this evening as the backside of the departing upper level low was trying to clear the region.
An upper level ridge over the western CONUS will slowly but steadily work east today and through the weekend. The relatively weak surface pressure gradient and resulting light surface winds coupled with mostly clear skies will make for a very nice early Spring day, with highs around 10 degrees warmer than normal.