Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Remainder of today into tonight will see the main upper cyclone over the Desert Southwest slowly fill as a second low forms and then moves into northern Mexico. Initially this will permit an axis of mid level deformation via an inverted trough axis to extend northeast into southwest/central Kansas through this evening. By mid to late evening, the weakening main upper cyclone will result in the deformation zone evolving into a broad trough axis with drier/subsident winds spreading over the region. Sunday into Sunday night will then turn quiet as the upper low over Mexico shifts into the Southern Plains while the next system begins to dig into the Intermountain West.
Another weak vorticity lobe emanating from the southern High Plains trough will approach the lower MO Valley tonight, and combine with continued low-level warm-thermal and moisture advections to support an uptick in precipitation across the area.
114 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017 The remnants of the upper-level trough will continue to move off to the east this morning. High pressure will then build into the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes Region today into Sunday.
This will continue east tonight along with a upper level ridge axis. However, given the lower dewpoints/RH in the day would not be surprised if the eastern valley locales see a quick drop in the evening before thicker clouds move in.
Based on radar trends and short range models, showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to spread north-northeast across western Kansas today as a series of H5 vort maxima cycle northeastward across the high plains within a difluent flow aloft downstream of a closed low anchored across the Desert Southwest. Although instability will remain fairly limited, ample lift present north of a frontal boundary across the southern Texas Panhandle combined with a +70kt jet aloft streaming across the high plains will continue to provide sufficient support for periodic showers with embedded thunderstorms.
154 PM MDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Latest upper air analysis shows the closed low slowly moving east across the Desert Southwest. A weak nose of the low level jet will also develop in the afternoon over the southeast portion of the forecast area, further enhancing the lift. Tonight the precipitation will end from west to east as the closed low transitions to an elongated trough and shifts the lift east of the Tri-State Area.
Much of Sunday will be similar with highs reaching the lower 60s in spots.
1224 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017 A cold front will result in cloudy and, in some places, cooler conditions today with a chance for light rain for areas along and north of Highway 2 - most likely along the north shore towards late- morning. A low pressure developing across central Manitoba will move east Sunday, with the associated cold front approaching from the west.
The large upper low that will bring us some rain was slowly moving across NM late this afternoon.
The southern stream trough will have a bit more moisture to work with and rain showers are forecast to push northward into east-central Minnesota northwest Wisconsin by late Sunday afternoon. Temperatures tonight will trend a little cooler northeast, but milder across our southern zones. Southerly winds will develop behind a weak and diffuse warm front lifting north through the region. Those southerly breezes will keep areas along the North Shore a little cooler, with middle to upper 40s expected. They agree on the upper level trough moving through the western Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a weak surface cold front is moving through Minnesota.
Easterly flow around high pressure over the eastern US will slowly increase moisture levels. Above normal temperatures will persist with highs in the low 80s at the beaches and upper 80s to near 90 degrees over the interior.
229 PM MDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Split flow upper levels continue across the CONUS as a large upper low drifts across the Four Corners. Return flow will continue to bring warmer temps across the area for Sunday with highs in the 50s and 60s.
250 PM PDT Sat Apr 1 2017 High pressure will bring mostly clear skies, lighter winds and warmer afternoon temperatures to the region through Sunday.
This disturbance and associated cold front will help to produce fairly widespread showers, most numerous in central Idaho and across northwest Montana. Snow levels will drop behind the cold front, so mountain passes may see some light snowfall but warm road surfaces should limit impacts.
High pressure returns Sunday with milder weather and partly to mostly sunny skies. The low that has been affecting the area continues to move away and is now located SE of Cape Cod. Behind this wave, a ridge of high pressure begins to build into western NY overnight bringing some breaks in the low cloud cover by morning. Lows tonight will generally be in the low to mid 30s with some upper 20s across the Catskills. However as the ridge builds into the area by afternoon expect partly to mostly sunny skies across the area with highs ranging from the mid 40s over the Catskills to the mid 50s over the Valleys of NE PA as well as the western southern tier. Fair weather continues across the area Sunday night as the ridge crests over the area.
High pressure will briefly settle over the Great Basin through this evening.
616 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Building high pressure should result in dry weather through Sunday. After a quick burnoff of any morning fog, Sunday morning and early afternoon will feature mostly-sunny sky and light wind as high pressure crosses the region. These clouds will be insufficient to prevent ample heating into the low 60s for highs. A closed upper low will eject from the Southern Plains and move slowly newd to begin the week.
The upper low and front will remain near of south of the Red River Sunday and bring more thunderstorms to southern Oklahoma Sunday with lesser chances farther north and west.
A trailing cold front will bring northwesterly winds of 10 to 20 mph to western and central ND Sunday.
605 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017 High pressure building into the region will ensure fair weather through Sunday.
/Today through Tonight/ Message of the Day: Warmer, with filtered sunshine Hazards: None Forecast Confidence: High 08z water vapor imagery clearly depicts upper low spinning along the Arizona/New Mexico border. Meanwhile, 08z Sfc analysis shows broad area of high pressure centered over NW Iowa. This anticyclonic flow has served to advect dry air in the low levels throughout much of the CWA, relegating any precip to virga, and keeping the gulf moisture advection associated with the low in Texas. As hinted at earlier, dry air through the low levels will largely relegate any precip to virga. Breaks/clearing in our northern/NE tier of counties support relatively warmer temps across this area versus Des Moines and SW Iowa.
/Issued 358 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017/ High pressure will build over the CWFA through the short term period. Winds will remain out of the NW today, but switch over to the NE overnight as high pressure shifts eastward.
300 PM MDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Current llvl Water Vapor satellite loop shows the upper level low near the Arizona/New Mexico border this afternoon. This low has moved very little over the last 24 hours from a position just south of the four corners region yesterday. However, with south winds across the high plains, there is some concern for fog along the Pine Ridge and Cheyenne Ridge. High res models are in agreement with fog along I-80 from the Summit eastward to Sidney in addition to the Pine Ridge from around Lusk eastward to the northern NE panhandle late this evening and tonight. Sunday will be relatively quiet and slightly warmer, with highs in the 50's to low 60's.
315 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017 A dry cold front will surge south through NC this evening and overnight. Pacific high pressure will shift southeast from the Midwest across NC on Sunday and then offshore Sunday night.
111 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017 High pressure will pass through from the northwest this weekend.
109 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017 High pressure building into the region will ensure fair weather through Sunday.
The upper level ridge over the region is weakening which will allow a weak cold front to pass over the forecast area this afternoon and evening.
Locations west of the Mississippi river still look favored for the highest coverage of showers and average QPF.
1117 AM MDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Latest upper air analysis shows the closed low slowly moving east across the Desert Southwest. A weak nose of the low level jet will also develop in the afternoon over the southeast portion of the forecast area, further enhancing the lift. Tonight the precipitation will end from west to east as the closed low transitions to an elongated trough and shifts the lift east of the Tri-State Area.
344 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017 High pressure will provide fair weather tonight into Sunday with lows in the 30s tonight and highs near 60 degrees tomorrow.
600 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017 High pressure builds in later tonight into Sunday.
Trended slightly warmer for tonight with winds becoming more sly. Also trended warmer on Sun with sely winds and WAA.
Have adjusted grids to reflect a somewhat cooler scenario for today, especially this morning, and a somewhat more gradual clearing/thinning of clouds from the south. VFR conditions are expected to continue thereafter, although cirrus clouds are forecast to increase late tonight and Sunday morning, ahead of a low pressure area over the Southern Plains.
545 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance As expected, the low clouds have cleared over a good bit of the area, with the exception being the Evansville Tri State area where the low-level flow is cyclonic.
233 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Low pressure south of Cape Cod will track out to sea. High pressure will build overhead tonight into Sunday.
A low pressure system will bring a few showers to the area this afternoon.
244 PM MDT Sat Apr 1 2017 A transitory positively tilted ridge is providing sunny skies and somewhat milder temperatures currently.
High pressure returns Sunday with milder weather and mostly sunny skies. This is falling as mainly snow over the higher elevations with rain or mixed rain/snow being seen in some of the lower elevation stations. Expect at most an inch or two of wet snow this morning mainly over the higher terrain before steadier precip ends by midday. For this reason, allowed Winter Weather Advisory to expire as we don't see the threat of freezing rain at this point. A problematic low-level temperature profile over our eastern counties will keep the threat for some light freezing rain and snow in the forecast through early morning. High pressure will bring milder temperatures and mostly sunny skies to the region on Sunday.
Should see a good deal of sunshine along with some high thin cirrus clouds over northern and central zones the remainder of the day where the driest air will reside, while a bit more clouds and a low chance for a few afternoon showers will be possible over southwest Florida where deeper moisture and then remnants of a frontal trough resides. It will be a very warm day with afternoon temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to around 90 over interior locations, but cooler readings (lower 80s) along the coast due to a developing onshore flow. Winds and seas continue to diminish and subside this morning as high pressure builds in with tranquil boating conditions expected through Sunday.
Upper low continues to spin over the Four Corners region, pushing clouds and precip into southern SD. With high pressure at the surface, winds are light and variable. Precip will end this morning as upper low begins to shift eastward and drier air moves into the region. Highs will range from the lower 50s across northeastern WY and the Black Hills to the mid 60s across central SD.
Looking at forecast low level thickness changes, highs today should only be 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday. Temperatures tonight will be warmer as low level flow becomes easterly with southerly winds closer to 850 mb.
330 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017 High pressure will build across the region tonight.
Water vapor imagery shows the upper low over New Mexico near Albuquerque with a secondary vorticity lobe rounding the west side of the low over east-central Arizona. This low will kick out to the northeast across the Big Bend Sunday morning into the Edwards Plateau by early Sunday evening.
As the low passes east high pressure will build in behind it.
Some peeks in the low cloud seen in some locations early this afternoon but east winds keeping temps from rising much. Have kept highs in the low to mid 60s given overnight WAA.
Dry west-northwest flow at mid-levels will gradually give way to slight ridging through the period as a potent upper level low digs southeastward across AZ/NM and into far west Texas today. Given the drier airmass in place behind yesterday's cold front, 30+ degree temperature swings from this morning's lows will be common, as afternoon highs are expected to reach the mid to upper 80s.
A weak cold front will move through the area tonight, pulled through by upper divergence as one jet streak kicks northeast and a new Pacific jetlet dives just southwest of the area. By mid day tomorrow inverted surface trof will become a focus for shower development from near Billings east into the Miles City area, with a slow progression eastward into Sunday night.
High pressure is building to the north of the area, as a weak boundary over the area, continues to dissipate today. The high, to the north, will gradually sink to the southeast, turning our wind flow more to the southeast and even south over the next several days.
323 PM MDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Satellite images this afternoon were showing the upper low centered over west central NM. Radar has been showing bands of snow rotating around the upper low into sern CO, and spotter reports indicate moderate to heavy snow under these bands with quick accumulations of one to three inches. The upr trof wl continue its eastward movement acrs NM and CO tonight. The central mtns will likely have the best chances for some afternoon showers, ahead of an approaching upr trof. Temps on Sun wl be warmer, with mainly 50s in the Upper Arkansas and San Luis Valleys and in the mid 50s to lower 60s acrs the southeast plains.
250 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017 As expected, the low clouds have cleared over a good bit of the area, with the exception being the Evansville Tri State area where the low-level flow is cyclonic.
235 PM MDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Light precipitation continues to lift northward across the area, associated with the upper low moving into the southern plains. The precipitation will gradually end tonight as the upper low moves into Texas.
The high will then move east of the area on Sunday allowing for warmer temperatures.
No complaints from us! Water vapor satellite this morning shows and upper level low over New Mexico and Arizona. 00Z models continue to indicate a piece of energy will break away from this upper level low and track northeast across the region Sunday afternoon and evening. The low level warm air advection ahead of the wave should produce 3 to 6 ubar/s of up glide on the 290K isentropic surface Sunday afternoon and into the early evening before this moves off to the east of the area.
351 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017 (Tonight and Sunday) A cold front has moved south into the far northwestern part of our forecast area this afternoon. The cold front will continue to advance slowly to the south across the northern and western parts of our area through late this evening. An upper level low over the Arizona/New Mexico border this afternoon will drop south into northeastern Mexico tonight, then lift northeast into west central Texas by Sunday evening. Temperatures will be much cooler on Sunday, as the cold front continues to move slowly south.
256 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Building high pressure should result in dry weather this afternoon through Sunday. Despite overcast conditions all day, building high pressure and limited dry advection aloft should result in a clearing trend tonight. After a quick burnoff of any morning fog, Sunday morning and early afternoon will feature mostly-sunny sky and light wind as high pressure crosses the region. These clouds will be insufficient to prevent ample heating into the low 60s for highs. A closed upper low will eject from the Southern Plains and move slowly newd to begin the week.
Upper low now entering western new Mexico progged similarly by models to track east then northeast across Texas. Intensifying low pressure advancing across the south plains will bring strengthening southerly winds through Sunday with widespread showers and thunderstorms developing. Rain chances will diminish going through Sunday night while winds weaken and become westerly with the passage of a cold front.
Early Saturday morning, a large closed upper low was centered just south of the Four Corners. Then expect a bit of a lull for much of the day as we await the next short wave impulse of energy to eject from the large trough. By Sunday morning, models show the closed mid-level low over New Mexico becoming an open-wave trough as it advances into Texas. A northern stream wave within this trough will track across the region through the day on Sunday, bringing ongoing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms before the system exits to the east Sunday night.
126 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Light rain should end this morning as low pressure exits. Building high pressure should result in dry weather this afternoon through Sunday. Several crossing low pressure areas will keep periodic rain chances for the upcoming work week. Although rain is exiting the region amid building high pressure, cloud cover will remain through most of the day, limiting temperature increases. Dry weather is expected to continue Sunday,though some increase in clouds is expected in the afternoon in warm advection ahead of approaching low pressure.
Some weak warm air advection showers should begin to develop around 09z and gradually expand in coverage as a warm front slowly moves north. /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017/ Surface analysis has 70 F dew point air moving due north from the lower Rio Grande with a stationary boundary laying across the Hill Country. As the upper low churning eastward into New Mexico digs down into northern Mexico through early Sunday morning the upper levels will become more diffulent over eastern Texas. There is a vort max that appears to be rounding the base of the upper low that the models are taking into west Texas overnight Sunday morning.
1248 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017 High pressure will move east of the area today and moisture will return on the back side of the high. Expect clouds to increase overnight as low pressure approaches from Texas. (ISSUED 548 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017 ) The low MVFR CIGs remain just outside the NRN terminals this morning. Dry conditions will be seen today as upper level ridging transitions to SW flow aloft. and especially by Sun afternoon as a SFC warm front lifts north into SRN AR. Multiple upper level disturbances will lift north over the warm front late Sun into Sun night. primarily across the SRN third of the state along and south of the warm front in the warm sector.
Ridging across the area today will bring clear skies, light winds and warm temperatures. Highs today in the low to mid 80s for most locations (some upper 70s right along the coast however).
Temperatures will rebound back into the upper 70s Sunday afternoon as upper ridging moves east and surface winds turn out of the south.
257 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017 High pressure builds in later tonight into Sunday.
315 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2016 Very warm and humid conditions along with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are expected until the passage of a Friday night cold front.
Temperatures will be on the hot side again today with highs in the low to mid 90s. Temperatures will be even a little warmer with highs in the mid to upper 90s. A weak cold front will start to approach the region from the north which may trigger a few thunderstorms over northern sections of the forecast area.
Rain chances return tomorrow as an upper level low moves over the area.
A weak upper level ridge will move across the area today. An upper level low will move toward the region on Friday.
Upper air analysis last evening showed the subtropical ridge firmly in place over the southern half of the country. At the surface, high pressure over the Gulf was keeping winds from the southeast. The subtropical ridge will continue to dominate for more hot and dry weather for most of the CWA.
The focus for showers and thunderstorms is expected to be near the frontal boundary, so kept the highest pops in the southern portion of the forecast area.
the vigorous upper level low was centered over southwestern Manitoba, with upper level energy impulses rotating around the low. A cloud shield rotating around the low pressure system was along and behind this secondary cold front. Meanwhile scattered showers and thunderstorms were rotating around the Canadian low pressure system. The aforementioned cold front that was over southern Manitoba/Saskatchewan is progged to sweep southeast across ND today. Along with the winds, a cloud shield rotating around the Canadian low will also follow the cold front and move across ND. Thus, a windy day with partly to mostly cloudy skies - and much cooler. The low pressure system moves east across southern Canada, reaching central Ontario this evening. The pressure gradient relaxes as dry high pressure continues pushing into the state.
All the models are indicating that we will mix out into the 60s for dewpoints by 21Z and may put a lid on the convection as well as the higher heat indices. So for this update the highest pops are actually right at 10am to Noon and then chances drop at least north of I-85.
137 AM EDT Thu Aug 4 2016 High pressure over the region both at the surface and aloft will continue to provide the North Country with dry weather, and a warming trend right through Friday. A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the entire area Friday night, with cooler weather expected for the weekend.
436 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2016 High pressure slowly slides offshore through Friday.
407 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2016 High pressure, along the east coast, will keep our weather seasonably warm, and rain free, into Friday.
A strong ridge of high pressure is firmly planted over Texas and it will continue to dominate the weather through the period. High pressure is dominating the north Gulf and is supporting light to moderate onshore flow. A weak inverted mid level trough appears in the NAM from Thursday to Thursday night, moving overhead from east to west, which could enhance Thursday night streamer showers, but for now not going above silent PoPs, though future shifts may want to keep an eye on it.
312 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016 The summer heat will continue across the entire region through the weekend as upper level high pressure remains parked over the state. Large scale subsidence under the ridge will keep clouds and rain chances at a minimum overall.
With the upper westerlies displaced almost clear to the Canadian border, the main weather player in the Ohio Valley today will be a weak upper low currently near the southern tip of Illinois. All that said, still expect at least scattered T-storms to develop as the day progresses, especially across south-central Kentucky, as we'll become moderately unstable under the upper low. Friday will be a bit of a squeeze play, as the upper trof lingers over eastern Kentucky and keeps things a bit unsettled in the higher terrain, while areas along and north of the Ohio River will start off dry, but see chances creep up later in the day as a cold front slowly drops SE across Illinois and Indiana.
320 AM MDT THU AUG 4 2016 A strong cold front continues to track across southeast WY and the western NE Panhandle early this morning. H7 temps are progged to fall below +10C over the high plains by 21z, and good saturation in the H7-H3 layer suggests persistent mid level cloud cover, and limited surface heating.