Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
619 AM CST Sat Jan 7 2017 Ridge of high pressure extending from central Oklahoma northeast through Missouri into Illinois will drift eastward over the next 24 hours. Light west wind will prevail today as the ridge axis transits into the Ohio Valley. This reinforcing shot of cold air will dump temperatures into the low teens and single digits once again tonight.
As a result, the northern half of the area will be lucky to see temperatures rise above freezing today. Low temperatures should range from the mid teens North to the lower 20s south.
Flurries look to be possible with lower ceilings over the higher elevations, but as the upper low moves further to the east skies will clear rapidly behind. Even though skies will be clear, temperatures will only get into the low to mid 20s for most of the mid state thanks to cold air lingering aloft and CAA at the surface.
Patches of freezing fog have developed over the Flathead/Mission Valleys and valleys of central Idaho early this morning.
Cold high pressure is building into the region early this morning, with temperatures falling through the single digits below zero and teens below zero. But looking at the areal coverage, and the fact that winds may drop off even more this morning as the high moves in, has led to no issuance of headlines at this time. Temperatures will certainly remain cold once again today as the high moves across the region.
Snow showers are possible tonight into Sunday morning with the passing of an upper level disturbance, with most confined to the north and ridges. The lowest H8 temps cross over the region tonight with the reinforcing shot of arctic air. The pressure gradient will be modest thanks in large part to the departing cyclone off the east coast. This will result in wind chill values dropping into the advisory range /-10F to -24F/ and higher elevations teetering with wind chill warning numbers /-25F or cooler/. Wind chill advisory for the higher elevations of West Virginia and Maryland remains in place. Kept the highest PoPs for areas north of I-80 while leaving numbers alone elsewhere. Subsidence inversion ahead of incoming anti-cyclone will shut off lake effect snow later Sunday.
However, with lesser winds and some warming temperatures across southeast Wyoming, wind chill temperatures are warmer than the -20 to -30 degree range. Difficult temperature forecast and even the models are having trouble with the NAM MOS 14 degrees warmer than the GFS at Douglas, 7 degrees warmer at Laramie and Torrington, 9 degrees warmer at Cheyenne, Alliance and Chadron, and 14 degrees warmer at Scottsbluff.
406 AM CST Sat Jan 7 2017 High pressure over the region has brought clear skies and light to calm winds overnight. A reinforcing round of high pressure will aid in keeping temperatures cold today. This will allow temperatures to climb above freezing Sunday afternoon.
Highs should still make it into the lower 20s near the Nebraska border to near 30 in the southeast counties, under mostly sunny skies and light north winds. Temperatures tonight fall toward the lower teens, with an increase in cloud cover and surface winds shifting around to the southeast toward morning.
for tonight, freezing rain continues to be a potential problem with the warm air aloft coming in first in an overrunning situation. The warm air should reach the surface by Sun morning in the eastern Magic Valley and lower elevations of the south central highland zone, possibly parts of the lower Snake River plain. Todays high will likely occur tonight, with temperatures continuing to warm on Sunday with many low elevations getting above freezing for at least a short period of time.
515 AM CST Sat Jan 7 2017 Quiet weather today as high pressure settles over the forecast area. High pressure shifts east tonight with surface flow returning to the southeast then south on Sunday.
Temperatures will be similar or slightly cooler than yesterday, with highs from around 10 above, to the upper teens. As wave pushes by, cold front will settle across the area later Sunday afternoon and Sunday night, allowing a shallow ooze of colder air back into the area.
1036 AM EST Sat Jan 7 2017 Arctic high pressure will build over the region tonight and Sunday as a low pressure system tracks northeast away from the Mid-Atlantic coast. OVERVIEW: THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING HEAVY PRECIP AND WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER OVER NORTHERN GA/UPSTATE SC AND MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY ~100 NM SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR AT 15Z THIS MORNING.
For tonight and Sunday, skies will be clear to partly cloudy as a ridge builds into the region. Low pressure will begin to organize in the central and northern Rockies early in the period, resulting in WAA later Sunday night.
Winds across northwest zones have hovered just below 10 mph on the periphery of high pressure centered over the Big Spring area off to our south.
Mixed wintry precipitation may occur Saturday night and Sunday morning that includes snow and possible freezing rain.
Strong cold front is now across the extreme southeast zones where a few to scattered showers exist.
610 AM CST Sat Jan 7 2017 High pressure over the region has brought clear skies and light to calm winds overnight. A reinforcing round of high pressure will aid in keeping temperatures cold today. This will allow temperatures to climb above freezing Sunday afternoon.
Significant Pacific storm will begin affecting the region today with a warm frontal passage. That could be on the high end for snow amounts though as this system is support by a 115 kt 300 mb Jet which should push the front through rather quickly. Forecast is more complicated for Sunday as warm Central Pacific air associated with another warm front over runs cold arctic surface air beginning.
Sub-zero low temperatures early this morning with light winds will produce wind chill values that dip into the lower 20s below zero. The upper ridge over the Intermountain Region and Rockies today broadens over the high plains as the trough over the Mississippi Valley area continues east. High pressure at the surface moves east as a lee trough deepens along the Front Range from eastern Wyoming through eastern New Mexico tonight and Sunday.
Current surface analysis places cold high pressure stretching throughout the Great Plains. Upper level analysis places modest ridge over the Northern Rockies into the Great Basin while low loiters through western Ontario. Warmer air tries to push in on Sunday, though cold airmass at the surface remains quite entrenched over the area and will be quite reluctant to warm up much.
The wind shift to the northwest associated with the cold front is expected to occur around around 3 pm, or possibly a short while later in the upper Keys. A recently updated zone forecast had that wording in addition to the higher likelihood of precipitation. A cold front due to pass through the Florida Keys late this afternoon will begin a period of possible MVFR ceilings and potentially IFR visibilities in brief showers, and some temporarily conditions may become necessary for the terminal forecasts.
If the increase in cloud cover is delayed until late evening then cooler readings might develop.
There has been an initial wind shift with band of showers and storms moving through central portions of the area currently, but actual cold front is just now beginning to move into northern Lake and Volusia counties late this morning. Otherwise numerous to widespread showers will continue to cross the region with drier conditions building in from north to south as cold front shifts southward through the day. Otherwise farther north, temps are at or near they maximum values for today with temperatures expected to fall into the 50s this afternoon behind the strong cold front. Overall MOS temps came in a degree or two cooler, primarily owing to surface/BLYR winds being a bit stronger. Otherwise numerous to widespread showers along and ahead of the cold front will produce tempo IFR/MVFR conditions through much of today.
/Today through Tonight/ Subjective analysis shows weak trough/front with clouds and flurries translating across Iowa now. the clouds now over the state have prevented lows from crashing so far and the resultant small benefit of that will allow for slightly warmer afternoon highs today when sunshine returns. H850 temperatures today will be roughly 5 to 7C warmer by 00z Sunday than at 00z Saturday over the central and southwest.
512 AM MST Sat Jan 7 2017 Deep NE Pac upper trough will support downstream ridging into the Northern Plains in the period. This will support a WAA regime over much of the region, esp affecting the higher terrain areas. Cold high pressure is now skirting the region, with a quasi- stationary frontal boundary over the fa separating arctic air from CP air. Deep upper trough will shift east Sunday and support a strong WAA/FGEN response aloft. WAA will begin to affect the high terrain with NE WY and the Black Hills seeing the warmest readings, with rising temps expected tonight. Warmer conds on track for Sunday, with most of NE WY and locations in and around the Black Hills rising above freezing for the first time a long while.
A trough moving across northern Wisconsin will produce an increase in cloud cover for areas north of Interstate 90 and tighten the pressure gradient slightly. High pressure then builds in tonight setting the stage for another bitterly cold night.
In the upper levels, a trough engulfs much of the eastern CONUS, while ridging is beginning to take over western parts of the CONUS. High pressure will continue to build in over western parts of the CONUS which will put us in a quiet northwesterly flow aloft.
A mid level deck near 120 will move into KFMN and KGUP with some virga possible around the high terrain.
Regarding temps, highs today wl be mainly in the lower/mid 30s, with mid 30s to lower 40s common Sun.
625 AM EST Sat Jan 7 2017 Low pressure southeast of the area moves off to the east this morning.
Highs Sunday still rather cold in the lower to mid 40s.
An upper trough over the lower Great Lakes/Ohio will keep the mention of lake effect snow showers in the far NW mountains, but with accums generally an inch or less. Gusty winds should drop wind chills below zero across the Alleghenies and into the single digits over the Lower Susq Valley.
449 AM MST Sat Jan 7 2017 With an upper level ridge over the area today, the weather will be dry acrs southeast and south central CO. Westerly winds increase ovr the mtns and nearby lower elevations tonight and this will help keep temps a little warmer in these locations.
Highs this afternoon will be in the low to mid teens.
With sunshine and temperatures above freezing by the afternoon, a good amount of melting can be expected. However, through sunset, temperatures will drop back below freezing, dipping into the teens for lows. This is likely to result in refreezing of melted snow/ice on roadways, leading to the redevelopment or slick spots on roadways, primarily secondary roads and side streets. Into Sunday, a shallow ridge will continue to build from the west, with a return to south/southwesterly flow.
503 AM CST Sat Jan 7 2017 Arctic high pressure ridging will slowly slide south today and allow a weak trough to move into the area from the northwest. An area of cloud cover is associated with this trough and observations and radar trends show some flurries or light snow occurring with the eastern part of the batch of clouds. Once the trough pushes east of the area late this afternoon, the arctic high pressure ridge will return to the area for tonight. High temperatures should be a tad warmer than yesterday, though areas where clouds linger longer may not get as warm. Quiet weather through Sunday is anticipated for Central Illinois as a high pressure ridge shifts through the area with light winds slowly becoming more southerly by the end of the day, signaling the beginning of a significant warming period.
JEE 326 AM CST A large high moves over the region Sunday, and at the same time the upper level trough and its cold air finally shift east. South winds help warmer air move in. Local climo suggested high temps should be a bit warmer than currently forecast so raised high temps into the low 20s. The high shifts east Sunday night and an upper level vorticity streamer moves over the region.
457 AM PST Sat Jan 7 2017 A weak low pressure system moving into California will bring a period of light precipitation to Southern California this morning. Warmer and dry for Sunday with weak high pressure.
545 AM CST Sat Jan 7 2017 For the 07/12Z TAFs, VFR will prevail with SKC conditions as cold arctic high pressure spills deeper into the region. Much quieter weather expected but cold conditions is not to be ignored in the near term, followed by much warmer temps and chances The tail-end of an ul longwave trough which brought in all of the wintry weather of yesterday, is well east of the Four-State Region early this morning. Subsequently, temps have cratered into the lower to middle teens /with a few single digits/ across southeast OK, northeast TX, portions of deep east TX and southwest OK to lower 20s elsewhere. However, wind speeds appear to be staying up just enough to mitigate this issue, though still quite cold with wind chill readings in the lower teens.
Ice on the other hand continues to be an issue this morning as temps from Cleveland to Griffin and Pine Mountain are below freezing at this hour and much colder air in the lower to mid 20s pours into North GA. wind chill temps will drop into the low single digits requiring a wind chill advisory for the northern tier.
1054 AM EST Sat Jan 7 2017 Low pressure will move across north Florida early this morning and into the Atlantic Ocean later today.
The thermometer readings will be in the lower 40s over most locations this afternoon under sunny skies. Clear skies and light winds are expected tonight into Sunday which means good radiational cooling in place for another cold night and freezing conditions areawide.
the cold front is expected to slowly progress across Northeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas and through Southeast Oklahoma overnight tonight. Increasing instability combined with the warmer temps ahead of the front could allow for a limited severe potential into the evening hours. Behind the cold front.
Our weather maker in the form of an upper trough centered across SE LA early this morning will make very slow progress north and west into our region over the next 48hrs. A southwest to northeast oriented shear axis in advance of a positive tilted upper level trough across the Southern Plains will also result in higher pops overnight across our extreme northwest zones as well.
Cold front entering northwest Oklahoma at this typing will move across all terminals by 18Z with primarily light northerly winds behind front although could see brief gusts near 20kt for a few hours after fropa.
Showers and thunderstorms on Saturday will be mainly confined to the southwest mountains and Big Horn Mountains with broad cyclonic flow over the region beginning to shift east as weak ridging starts to build in from the west. Temperatures will range from the low 80s today with slightly warmer high temperatures expected on Saturday.
If clouds are thicker and rain more prevalent the highs many locations could be too warm by 2 to 5 plus degrees. Mins mostly in the mid to upper 60s with lower readings in the lower 60s possibly in nw 1/3 for later shifts. consistent pattern with highs in the lower 80s most locations through the period. Mins mostly in the lower to middle 60s with risk of being too mild for later shifts to reassess. As the low shifts east tonight there may be a brief period of improving conditions, but given the amount of moisture in the air, fog could develop and limit vsbys overnight as well.
Excessive heat conditions are likely to impact portions of the lower to middle Susquehanna Valley through the upcoming weekend. Apparent temperatures will soar above 100F across much of the lower to middle Susq River Valley.
High pressure will continue to dominate the areas weather with dry conditions and above normal temps today.
The short term period begins with an H5 trough across the region and northwest flow over most of North Dakota.
KRM Temperatures early this morning range from the low 80s at Memphis International to the low 70s near the Tennessee River. Morning lows will likely be in the low to middle 70s across the majority of the region. but over the next 48 hours we are expecting to see a weak trough dig to our West and gradual weakening of the Bermuda High to our East. A cold front will approach the Midsouth Saturday afternoon. one just to our North in South Central Missouri along the cold front and another beneath the Cutoff low in South Louisiana. A weak broad trough is expected to shift from the Plains across the Mississippi River valley.
A modest warming trend is expected to begin this afternoon and continue Saturday as upper level high pressure builds over the area and compresses the marine layer.
Warming trend will continue today and Saturday as upper ridge along the coast builds inland.
The main upper trough extending southward from the upper low moving across southern Canada sweeps across the forecast area today. The ridge in place over the west coast today moves inland on Saturday with the northwest flow between these two features bringing a short wave trough across the central high plains region Saturday night.
1044 AM MDT FRI AUG 12 2016 A much drier airmass has moved over the state, best depicted by the lower precipitable water values at Steamboat Springs and Arapahoe Basin. Still have a band of light rain showers across Lincoln county associated with exiting trof and jet streak. Temperatures will also be cooler today following the yesterdays cold front. Lower elevations look to be in the lower to mid 80s. Appears focus for storms today will initiate over higher terrain of East slopes, CYS ridge and and Palmer divide regions with enough ample heating and lingering moisture.
A ridge stretching from a high pressure in the Atlantic, will extend westward and sit over central Florida today and tonight, lifting north towards the southeast coast of Georgia on Saturday.
Behind the surface front that triggered the storms and is now reinforced by convective outflow and moving away across Missouri, light north northwest winds will prevail today with somewhat cooler temperatures than the past couple of days.
734 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2016 Aviation A slow moving cold front and associated wave of low pressure will track eastward through the Great Lakes region today and tonight.
water vapor imagery showing a positively tilted trough moving through the Northern Plains. with a slow moving cold front now extending from Central Kansas northeast into the central Great Lakes. expect a gradual lull in activity after sunrise before convection redevelops later this morning and afternoon as the cold front ever so slowly works through the area. cooler 850 temps. Precip chances to largely come to an end later this evening as frontal band sinks south of the forecast area and high pressure begins building in from the north. This will mark the beginning of a pleasant weather pattern for the upcoming weekend with northeast low-level flow allowing for lower humidity and cooler temps.
1002 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2016 Low-level southeast flow continues over the region as the western flank of Atlantic high pressure exerts more influence on the local weather pattern. Ridge axis just north of the area will produce S/SE winds over the waters up to 10-15 knots.
Surface map at 06Z shows high pressure situated off to the east with a low pressure center over the Louisiana coast and a cold front extending from the Great Lakes to the central Plains. The NAM brings the system almost due north to near MEM by 18Z Saturday and merging with the cold front as it approaches from the northwest. The GFS, on the other hand, carries the low center farther west owing to the strength of the Bermuda High, and merging with the aforementioned cold front to form a quasi- stationary boundary to our northwest.
High pressure and relatively drier air will spread across the region.
907 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2016 12Z sounding this morning indicated a very high freezing level of 17kft. Drier air made its way into the mid/upper levels due to the upper level ridge nudging into the region from the east and northeast. Highs today will be in the lower 90s with heat indices of 100-105F.
Many southern areas will have temperatures reach the low to mid 90s. Will once again have a high heat advisory until 7pm for southern NH and extreme southwest ME as temps reach the lower to mid 90s with heat index temps reaching around or just above 100 degrees. The first of several short waves will be traveling around the northwest periphery of the large upper ridge. As the short wave exits it will drag south a cold front that will move south into southern areas by Saturday. Models show another wave of low pressure to develop along it and thus allows another round of heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms Saturday.
Latest surface observations indicates a cold front that has been augmented by outflow from convection to the north continues to move southward. Relatively cool stable air mass behind the front will limit convective development this afternoon and so the highest probabilities have been re-oriented to the south in our latest update. This morning's sounding at Norman shows slightly stronger/deeper southwesterly flow in the low levels than has been seen in recent days, and a slightly drier low level profile. We have also trimmed the northern end of the Heat Advisory based on the above mentioned trends with the advancing cold front/outflow. Cold front entering northwest Oklahoma at this typing will move across all terminals by 18Z with primarily light northerly winds behind front although could see brief gusts near 20kt for a few hours after fropa.
Drier and warmer weather is expected over the next several days as high pressure builds into the Pacific states and Arizona.
Thunderstorm chances will increase across the Metroplex terminals this afternoon and evening as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The cold front should reach the Metroplex terminals between 05Z and 06Z but may not make it to Waco until after 12Z Saturday. /ISSUED 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016/ The much anticipated mid-summer cold front continues to make steady southeastward progress early this morning. The prospect for an isolated storm this morning and then greater coverage this afternoon throws a wrench in the forecast for what could otherwise be a very hot day as thicknesses get a bump out ahead of the cold front. For now, decided to side with the warmer guidance numbers for today, but these could still be underdone.
1008 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2016 High pressure ridge continues to dominate the weather across the region. With ridge axis still cutting the CWA in half, expect orographic lift to continue to play a part in diurnal convection this afternoon and evening. Chattanooga Airport, TN 94 75 93 75 / 20 20 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 93 75 92 73 / 30 20 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 94 75 93 73 / 20 20 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 93 70 91 69 / 40 20 20 20.
The upper level ridge center located off of the Carolina coast will continue to keep convection disorganized across our area through the first half of the weekend. The higher resolution models had a good handle on the convective outcome from yesterday afternoon, so have sided with these solutions through the short term, given the continued pattern. On Saturday, the upper level ridge will get nudged a bit more off to the east with the approach of a trough moving in from the northern plains. Highs may be just a touch cooler in the northwest given the additional cloud cover, with similar readings across the southeast.
A warming trend will begin today into Saturday as high pressure builds over the area compressing the marine layer.