Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WHILE BRINGING HOTTER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 24/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS AND RECENT MODEL DATA SHOW RIDGING EXTENDING FROM NEARLY OVERHEAD AND EASTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
/issued 240 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015/ Current observations show the cold front is right about where it was expected to be at this time, right along the I-20 corridor to Pecos, then extending northwest along the Pecos River valley into southeast New Mexico. The remainder of the forecast appears to be a return of what we are very familiar with, an upper level high building over New Mexico and west Texas.
332 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER AT 07Z AND WILL PUSH EAST OF THE RIDGES BY MID DAY. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN NOSE INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGING ENCOMPASSING THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND DESERT SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY TODAY INDUCING A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
547 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
GENERALLY PLEASANT AND WARMER WEATHER TODAY AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WEST. WV/IR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE RIDGE.
435 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2015 AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE BORDERLAND FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
435 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ONCE THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST LATE IN THE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL CLEAR THE EASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE DAYBREAK.
409 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEK, AND PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE NORTHEAST.
207 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING.
140 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE THIS MORNING. AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SAILS SLOWLY ACROSS. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A STOUT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA DOMINATES THE AREA THIS PERIOD. SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT THAT ALL MODELS CONCUR WILL BE E OF THE AREA BY THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO LIFT NEWD WED NT. LOWS ARE NEAR THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE. AS HIGH PRESSURE SAILS SLOWLY ACROSS AMID RISING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS. A TRAILING WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LEFT BEHIND. IN FAVOR OF A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW UPSTREAM. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS MORNING.
630 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ONCE THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST LATE IN THE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL CLEAR THE EASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE DAYBREAK.
219 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE ONTARIO PENINSULA AND LAKE ERIE. SHEAR VALUES INCREASE WITH TIME YET REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND A TOUCH MORE HUMID TODAY. AS AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEWPOINTS BUMP UP INTO THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS /WARMEST DAY OF THIS WORKWEEK/.
A ridge/trough pattern was strengthening over North America as a strong upper low slowly moves through the northern Great Lakes region and an upper level ridge builds over the west. The upper ridge continues to build through tonight with upper level northwesterly flow continuing over the central Plains. This will slowly move east today as the upper level ridge builds. Weak return flow will develop today as the ridge moves east. As the high pressure slowly weakens its grip on the area, high temperatures this afternoon will be a little warmer across western Kansas than on Sunday. Medium range models this morning are in pretty good agreement with previous runs in showing the upper level ridge continuing to build northward and eastward into the Plains states.
918 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.
640 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WHICH WILL BOTH PUSH COLD FRONTS THROUGH AS WELL. WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY MIDNIGHT. GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AT THE LOWER LEVELS FROM OUR SOUTHEAST. WRF & HRRR MODELS BOTH PROJECTS SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN WITH THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATE IN THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. AS THE NORTH WINDS WILL ONLY BRING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR.
1029 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TONIGHT.
557 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH LOW PRESSURE LATE TUESDAY BEFORE A CHANGE TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS ARE EXPD TO INCREASE AGAIN LATER AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS S ACRS THE RGN. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACRS WRN PA TO SE NY TUE NGT. AS THE LOW/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES LT TUE NGT. WITH THE BEST LGT ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS THROUGH THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEK. SHOULD YIELD MIN TEMPS BY EARLY TUESDAY UPPER 30S/AROUND 40 NORTH HALF TO THE LOW-MID 40S SOUTH. VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BEST THETA-E/WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING IN BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUE EVE/NIGHT. AND THE LOW TEMP FORECAST WED MORNING MAY EASILY BUST BY 10-15F ALONG/EAST OF HWY 1.
WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 8 TO 12 KNOTS THEN TO THE NORTHWEST AT 8 TO 14 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. 47 COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY AS DEWPOINTS SLOWLY INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
627 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016 OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 02Z WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, PICKING UP OUT OF THE SE 9-12KTS AFTER 01/15Z ALONG THE EAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEK. DRY AIR WILL BE REINFORCED BY A PAIR OF WEAK COLD FRONTS.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 46 69 39 49 / 0 80 80 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 41 65 37 44 / 0 60 80 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 42 65 37 46 / 0 60 80 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 38 62 36 41 / 0 50 80 30.
EVEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE MID TO LATE MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL EVACUATE THE LOW CLOUDS AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
530 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016 SURFACE RIDGING CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA. LOCATIONS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS LAST NIGHT IN ALBERTA SAW TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE 20S F BELOW ZERO. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
41 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWFA LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE.
A weak cold front will move through the area overnight shifting winds to the north. The cold front will reach the northern terminals around 14Z and the southern terminals around 16Z. Trialing cold front will surge across West Central Texas on Tuesday, reaching the I-20 corridor from Sweetwater to Abilene by shortly after sunrise, San Angelo and Brownwood by mid morning, and into the I-10 locations by noon. Gusty north winds will prevail but with only slightly cooler temperatures.
A WARM FRONT IS BRINGING OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA THIS EVENING TO THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN TUESDAY.
WINDS IN THE LOWEST 2000 FEET OR SO ARE FROM THE SOUTH AND THEN SWITCH AND BLOW FROM A PREDOMINATELY WEST DIRECTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPOSPHERE.
High pressure to the east of the region will provide light south to southwesterly flow, which will increase low level moisture over the next couple of days.
TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING AROUND 70 DEGREES UNDER SKIES RANGING FROM MOSTLY CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE LOWER KEYS. A WEAKENING WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS DRAPED ACROSS THE SUNSHINE STATE AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
701 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
AND A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND TRAIL SOUTHWARD INTO TX. WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH GENERALLY DURING THE DAY. LOCAL HI-RES WRF GUIDANCE KEEPS DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA. EVEN WITH THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT.
405 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016 COLD FRONT HAS DISSECTED THE CWA TODAY WITH COOL 30S NORTH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WHILE SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA HAS WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. HOWEVER A TROUGH STRETCHES TO THE SW. COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. COOLER AIR FILLS IN BEHIND THE WAVE TOWARDS MORNING AND COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX BEFORE PRECIP ENDS. AGREEMENT FOR THE RIDGE TO DOMINATE THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PUSHED THROUGH THE KVTN TERMINAL AS OF 18Z. THE COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING.
A cold front will interact with returning Gulf moisture to produce thunderstorms across E OK & NW AR later tonight.
1059 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016 LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AHEAD OF AN ARRIVING CIRRUS SHIELD WILL LEAD TO A CALM NIGHT EVIDENCED BY A RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT. VALLEYS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOW 30S WHILE RIDGE LOCATIONS ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW-MID 40S. CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO ENCROACHING CIRRUS LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SET TO ENTER THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE RIDGES AND OPEN TERRAIN WILL TEND TO REMAIN MIXED OR REMIX DURING THE NIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD.
WINDS WILL BE S/SE NEAR 10 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KDRT AROUND 16Z AND THE I-35 SITES 19Z-21Z. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THIS LOW IS DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. BEHIND THIS LOW. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH AND WILL BE NEAR INTERSTATE 20 BY 12Z. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM TOMORROW. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR THE HILL COUNTRY TO NEAR 50 FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN IA. WE WILL QUICKLY GET BACK TO NW FLOW ALOFT FOR TUE-WED WITH YET ANOTHER IMPULSE EXPECTED TO DIVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z THU. THESE WARMER TEMPS ARE SUPPORTED BY 850MB MIX DOWN TEMPS ALONG WITH GOOD DOWNSLOPE. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS ARE FORECASTING A MORE ROBUST TROUGH TO DIG OVER THE WEST COAST STARTING SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN A MUCH WEAKER IMPULSE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN. LAWSON A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM NORTH CENTRAL KS TO SOUTHWESTERN KS EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING.
710 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TONIGHT.
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IS MOVING INTO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SO DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW WITH TRACE AMOUNTS. WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. A RETURN TO ABOVE FREEZING HIGHS IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WEST.
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY SUNRISE. MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL SLIGHTLY COOLER. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MAINTAINS A POSITIVE TILT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. BUT DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER MIDDAY AS THE FRONT USHERS IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS.
FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET) BRIEFLY POSSIBLE PRIOR TO CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. A SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH AND BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. WEAK PGRAD AS A HI PRES RIDGE REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA.
510 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016 COLD FRONT HAS DISSECTED THE CWA TODAY WITH COOL 30S NORTH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WHILE SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA HAS WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. HOWEVER A TROUGH STRETCHES TO THE SW. COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. COOLER AIR FILLS IN BEHIND THE WAVE TOWARDS MORNING AND COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX BEFORE PRECIP ENDS. AGREEMENT FOR THE RIDGE TO DOMINATE THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS TO THE KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
REMNANTS OF DEPARTING TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EAST. THE REST OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY A TEMPORARY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL WARM FRONTAL FEATURE THAT MOVES OVER THIS AREA TUESDAY THAT MAY BRING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS NEAR STANLEY AND GALENA SUMMIT DURING THE MORNING.
Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of a cold front that is expected to move into northern Oklahoma around 2 am Tuesday morning.
528 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016 AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING FOLLOWING THE STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUE/WED. A RATHER SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS THEN FORECAST FROM FRI INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE STRONGEST SURGE OF WARM AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS FRI NIGHT AND SAT.
923 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016 OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.
ON THAT NOTE, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT. WITH A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FROM THE OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE MID TN AREA. AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
638 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH LOW PRESSURE LATE TUESDAY BEFORE A CHANGE TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS ARE EXPD TO INCREASE AGAIN LATER AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS S ACRS THE RGN. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACRS WRN PA TO SE NY TUE NGT. AS THE LOW/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES LT TUE NGT. WITH THE BEST LGT ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS THROUGH THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
645 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWFA LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE.
MODELS ALSO SUGGESTED VALUES WOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER.
The marginal risk for hail still looks like a good play given the mid level lapse rates, dry mid levels and low freezing level. An upper level trough will dive south across the central Plains tonight sending a cold front to the southeast. A cooler air mass will then overspread the area behind the cold front on Tuesday with highs close to 20 degrees cooler than those that are occurring this afternoon. Highs Tuesday are expected to be in the middle 40s to the lower 50s.
THE WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS.
WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF TSRA FOR C LA FOR THE AFTERNOON.
917 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH LOW PRESSURE LATE TUESDAY BEFORE A CHANGE TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENSION AND DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS PREVENTING PRECIPITATION FROM DEVELOPING ALONG WEAK COLD FRONT. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACRS WRN PA TO SE NY TUE NGT. AS THE LOW/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES LT TUE NGT. WITH THE BEST LGT ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS THROUGH THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA CONTINUES TO PREVAIL.
GUIDANCE IS STILL PRETTY INSISTENT ON STRATUS AND FOG FORMING LATE TONIGHT FOR W ZONES AS MOIST AIR OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES OVER THE COOLER LAND SFC.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE PENINSULA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE SUGGESTS WE WILL SEE A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AROUND DAWN. THE ONSHORE WIND WILL KEEP THE COASTAL AREAS AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER (BUT STILL COMFORTABLE). HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.
651 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016 CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO ENCROACHING CIRRUS LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SET TO ENTER THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE RIDGES AND OPEN TERRAIN WILL TEND TO REMAIN MIXED OR REMIX DURING THE NIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT OR AT LEAST KEEP FOG MORE PATCHY IN NATURE ACRS ALL BUT THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN WHERE FOG MAY BE A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT. WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF TSRA FOR C LA FOR THE AFTERNOON.
For tonight, went with slightly cooler guidance for lows as the low dewpoints (dry atmosphere) continues.
As of 06Z the cold front was progessing through the western part of the area and had just moved through Dothan.
SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE SURFACE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. DIFFLUENT FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS WESTERN IOWA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM SUBSTANTIALLY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MN AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN CO. BRINGING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. COOLER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE WEST TO THE LOWER 70S FARTHER EAST.
329 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 A low pressure area will push through the Great Lakes region today and drag a cold front across the northern half of the state. The big issue with today's forecast is the very tight pressure gradient that is created with the cold front moves through the area. As the ridge axis slides over the region, winds tonight decouple and bottom out at the surface, allowing for very efficient radiational cooling. Overnight lows at or below freezing will damage tender early vegetation.
Warm up will be somewhat tempered with the passage of the cold front causing a wind shift and onset of weak cold air advection.
315 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH SUNDAY.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S. WINDS WILL EASILY MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA IF NOT FLIRT W/WARNING CRITERIA THIS AFTN ESP SRN/ERN ZONES WHERE MORNING ISOLATION MAY YIELD A BIT WARMER SFC TEMPS. BRIEF BUT QUITE FVRBL WINDOW OF LK EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL FOLLOWS LT THIS AFTN AND EVENING AS LL THERMAL TROUGH MAXIMIZES OVR THE AREA. HWVR LL FLW BACKS AND INVERSION CRASHES OVERNIGHT TIMED W/VRY DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ON BACKSIDE OF UPR TROUGH. GFS AND EC IN LOCK STEP W/ONE ANOTHER IN CARVING OUT A DEEP/VRY COLD TROUGH OVR THE ERN US BY LT PD IN RESPONSE TO PARADE OF SEWD DIGGING DISTURBANCES DROPPING OVRTOP UPR RIDGE ACRS WRN CANADA. THIS ALSO MARKS THE HIGH POINT TEMP WISE ON WED W/MUCH COLDER WX PRECEDING AND FOLLOWING THIS SYS.
VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT PASSED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGHEST WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN WILL GENERALLY OCCUR THIS MORNING IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE RISES. BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS INITIALLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS 850MB TEMPS DIP TO BETWEEN -8C AND -12C ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI. WITH THE LIFT AND SATURATION FOCUSED ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW. INCLUDED LOW END POPS IN PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL WI AS THIS AREA MIGHT BE GRAZED BY THE PRECIP WITH THIS LOW.
333 AM MDT SAT APR 2 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES RIDING OVER THE TOP AND DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. MODELS DRAGGING SOME CLOUDS THROUGH AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS.
MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY BUT A BIT COOLER TODAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WED AND THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS AGAIN.
SOME CLOUDS LOOK TO CREEP IN FROM THE NORTH WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BUT SHOULDNT STICK AROUND VERY LONG. AND POSSIBLE FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. BUT ENHANCED MIXING MAY BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE BIG QUESTION CURRENTLY IS IF WINDS WILL DIE DOWN ENOUGH TO DECOUPLE THE LOW LEVELS FOR TEMPS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING. THERE WONT BE MUCH STOPPING TEMPS FROM HITTING THE LOW 30S.
320 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL OUT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
BUT APPROACHING RIDGE WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING WINDS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. RAZOR SHARP RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH VERY ABRUPT TRANSITION TO RETURN FLOW BY MIDNIGHT. INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW MAY ALLOW SOME COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT COOLER FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST. WARMER THAN NORMAL SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW.