Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
619 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 Main challenge is the position of the weak cold front on Saturday which will impact where the most intense daytime heat will reside. General short term model consensus suggests only a slight southward move of the effective cold front on on Saturday just south of the I-70 corridor, perhaps as far south as the highway 56 corridor in central Kansas by peak heating Saturday. As per the past few days, some elevated convection originating tonight over the high Plains may wane as it moves southeastward into portions of central and eastern Kansas Saturday morning.
952 PM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022 High pressure will build to our north today.
642 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 (Tonight) As the trough over the eastern Great Lakes lifts through the Northeast, the vast ridge dominating the western half of the CONUS starts to slide eastward.
512 PM MDT Fri Jul 15 2022 Upper ridge axis extended from eastern MT to the southern High Plains.
Upper level ridging building into the area tonight into tomorrow will limit the development of afternoon thunderstorms tomorrow. At the surface, broad, but weak high pressure extending across much of the gulf of Mexico will maintain light, generally southerly winds.
943 PM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022 High pressure over the Great Lakes will build southeast across Pennsylvania through tonight.
600 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 (Through tonight ) Expansive high pressure ridge centered near Kenton, OK will maintain unseasonably dry and warm conditions overnight. A few mid and high level clouds are rotating south along the periphery of the ridge and a broad cu field has developed across far east and southeast OK into western AR this afternoon.
Radar indicated small thunderstorms developing along the trough axis across the north central zones, in response to the super heated boundary layer. Leeside troughing over eastern Colorado will give way to downslope southwest low level flow seeing wind gusts up to 20-30 mph for much of the CWA.
Expect daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms, especially across the higher terrain. Anticipate a daily chance for afternoon storms, especially for the higher elevations along with a risk for flash flooding. The highest potential for convection will be INVOF INW.
703 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 (This afternoon through Saturday Night) Nashville has once again hit 90+ degrees today tying the 6th longest streak of consecutive 90 degrees or warmer days. The high resolution models have additional isolated showers moving into the area from the north overnight ahead of a weak disturbance, so a small slight chance PoP was included. Saturday will be a similar day today with highs in the low to mid 90s.
Temperatures will be a couple degrees warmer on Saturday as highs will be at or above 100F in the lower valleys, including the Treasure Valley.
653 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 The center of upper level ridging is located across the TX/OK panhandle region this afternoon. The center of upper level ridging retrogrades westward into the Four Corners region though much of the upcoming week.
(Rest of tonight) A tranquil night in store as dry air continues over the area in the wake of a cold front. Overnight lows will range from the upper 60s across the higher elevations to low 70s across northwest and north central AL.
730 PM MDT Fri Jul 15 2022 EVENING UPDATE: 0100Z A quasi-cold front is moving west to east across the area and leaving a narrow 40 mph wake behind it. Early afternoon development over the higher terrain of central Montana is indicated by the convective allowing models, with activity spreading east/northeast before exiting into North Dakota late in the evening.
/33/ (This evening through Saturday Night) With upper-level ridging now centered just north and west of the Llano Estacado, the Ark-La-Tex will sit on the eastern periphery in dry northerly flow through the next 36 hours. Until then, minimum temperatures tonight are expected in the mid-70s, with dew points remaining in the lower 70s. With dew points remaining in the low 70s, heat indices will approach the 105 degree mark, yet remain too marginal for Heat Advisory issuance. That said, Texas zones will remain warmer with highs at or near the triple-digit mark, and subsequent forecast packages will have more detailed guidance for hazard issuance.
High pressure has built back into Northern Michigan early this morning. in the wake of an upper level wave/trough axis and surface reflection that moved thru the Western Great Lakes yesterday. Synopsis/Forecast: Current anomalously strong ridging (+1 to 2 St.
1136 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 Main challenge is the position of the weak cold front on Saturday which will impact where the most intense daytime heat will reside. General short term model consensus suggests only a slight southward move of the effective cold front on on Saturday just south of the I-70 corridor, perhaps as far south as the highway 56 corridor in central Kansas by peak heating Saturday. As per the past few days, some elevated convection originating tonight over the high Plains may wane as it moves southeastward into portions of central and eastern Kansas Saturday morning.
Expect daily showers and thunderstorms, especially across the higher terrain. Anticipate a daily chance for afternoon storms, especially for the higher elevations along with a risk for flash flooding.
Highs today will reach the lower to middle 80s where showers and storms form, with near 90 degrees elsewhere. Sunday looks much warmer than today, with widespread 90s from the Red River Valley westward.
The broad upper ridge that has dominated the regional weather pattern will remain entrenched over the southwestern CONUS, extending eastward across the South Plains. Increasing subsidence beneath this ridge will maintain dry conditions region-wide this weekend, with any showers/thunderstorms expected to remain well to the south and west of the area. Temperatures today will be a degree or two warmer than yesterday for most, with highs in the upper 90s and lower 100s across the plains and upper 80s and lower 90s across the mountains. While a weak cold front is progged to sag slowly southward across the Panhandle Sunday, it does not look to reach the Permian Basin.
Today: Weak low pressure will slide through central/southern Illinois and central Missouri today, slowly pulling away from the local area. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s.
1210 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 (This evening through Saturday Night) With upper-level ridging now centered just north and west of the Llano Estacado, the Ark-La-Tex will sit on the eastern periphery in dry northerly flow through the next 36 hours. Until then, minimum temperatures tonight are expected in the mid-70s, with dew points remaining in the lower 70s. With dew points remaining in the low 70s, heat indices will approach the 105 degree mark, yet remain too marginal for Heat Advisory issuance. That said, Texas zones will remain warmer with highs at or near the triple-digit mark, and subsequent forecast packages will have more detailed guidance for hazard issuance.
With the further push of the drier air, we will mix out during the afternoon and see readings in the low 90s today and low to mid 90s on Sunday. Generally 20 to 40 percent chance each day with the highest in the south/southeast.
This low is expected to bring rain to roughly the southern third of the forecast area with scattered showers north of there.
342 AM EDT Sat Jul 16 2022 High pressure over the Great Lakes will build southeast across Pennsylvania through tonight.
1059 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 Spotty short-lived showers have been occurring across parts of far NEMO and WC IL for the past few hours to the north of a warm front located in the vicinity of the MS River. By Saturday morning, precipitation will diminish across the CWA as heights briefly rise on the eastern side of an upper level ridge. Rain will move out of the region Sunday as ridging builds into the region and heights begin to rise.
1251 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 The center of upper level ridging is located across the TX/OK panhandle region this afternoon. The center of upper level ridging retrogrades westward into the Four Corners region though much of the upcoming week.
254 AM EDT Sat Jul 16 2022 High pressure over the Great Lakes will build southeast across Pennsylvania through tonight.
We'll have a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms today as a weak upper level disturbance moving off the high plains moves across the region. Due to the increased cloud cover today, temperatures will not be as hot as they were yesterday, and should actually be below normal for most area in the lower to mid 80s, but closer to normal in the upper 80s in southeast NE.
1226 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 (Rest of tonight) A tranquil night in store as dry air continues over the area in the wake of a cold front. Overnight lows will range from the upper 60s across the higher elevations to low 70s across northwest and north central AL.
228 AM MDT Sat Jul 16 2022 Another hot day on tap as an upper level ridge remains in place over the region. On Sunday things are expected to be considerably warmer with widespread triple digit high temperatures expected, with a few record highs being possible.
At the surface, low pressure will be over northern portions of the OH valley with a trailing frontal boundary that will slowly approach the area from the NW. Didn't stray too far from the NBM for high temps on Sunday which is advertising middle 80s, however timing of precip could keep temps a bit cooler than that.
This will keep temperatures within a few degrees of Fridays high temperatures, in the low to mid 90s.
- Increasing chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening/night, with cooler conditions on Sunday. Upper trough dives southeast across the area on Saturday, with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms - especially Saturday night. Quasi-stationary frontal boundary near the Interstate 70 corridor will keep readings cooler over northern Missouri on Saturday. Little change to the overall pattern expected for the upcoming work week as the upper ridge builds back into the region.
334 AM EDT Sat Jul 16 2022 High pressure will build over the region today. On Sunday, a weak cold front will cross the region.
218 AM MDT Sat Jul 16 2022 07z analysis had diffuse trough from eastern MT into southeast WY/western NE. Sunday, upper ridge amplifies over the northern plains with subsidence/drying.
1133 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 (This evening through Saturday) An upper level ridge is forecast to remain centered near the Four Corners region through Saturday, resulting in hot and dry conditions across West Central Texas. Overnight low temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s.
With high pressure building in on Sunday, skies will be mostly sunny. Warmer air moves in aloft from west to east through the day, with the upper-level ridge axis.
An upper level ridge persists over the southwestern CONUS with another upper ridge over the western Atlantic, essentially keeping the local area within weak mid to upper level flow. This pattern will remain over the weekend, especially over the eastern half of the forecast area, but the ridge to the west will be gradually building eastward and into our area. High temperatures on Saturday will be slightly warmer than they were today, mainly in the lower 90s inland and the upper 80s near the coast. Lows Saturday night should be in the lower 70s inland and middle to upper 70s near and along the coast.
The latest RAP upper air analysis early this afternoon shows the center of the H500 high pressure system is currently located over northeastern NM early this afternoon. Upper level high shifts a bit further east to just over some areas of the Panhandles during the day tomorrow. A subtle upper level disturbance traversing around the high pressure aloft will move across the higher terrain to the west tomorrow. Muscha A weak cold front is expected slip southward across the Panhandles on Sunday.
This system will also keep increased cloud coverage over our region tonight, and temperatures are running several degrees warmer than last night.
Upper ridge axis extended from eastern MT to the southern High Plains.
Another hot day is on tap for much of southwest Kansas (especially for areas along and south of highway 56) as a weak cold front will be inching southward during the day from the I-70 corridor to close to highway 50 by late afternoon.
I'm grasping at straws when it comes to ways to mix up my discussions with these summer ridge patterns. "Ridge, hot, no rain. Upper-level ridging will hang on strong over the next 36-hours, with temperatures reflecting as such. Precipitation also looks to be a figment of ones imagination, as subsidence with the ridge will damper this activity. /44/ (Sunday Night through Saturday) Northerly flow on the eastern periphery of an upper-level ridge centered over the Four Corners Region will slowly push a cold front south across the Plains and towards the forecast area.
343 AM EDT Sat Jul 16 2022 An upper level trough will remain along the east coast through the short term. Atwell By Sunday Night, a mid level low pressure system is situated across the central Great Lakes. A broad, flat, trough stretches down through the TN valley. The weakness between the sprawling high pressure to the west and the Western Atlantic high still exists across the CWA and Deep South.
135 AM EDT Sat Jul 16 2022 High pressure over the Great Lakes will build southeast across Pennsylvania through tonight.
Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 60s, with highs on Sunday reaching the low to mid 80s.
1130 PM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022 High pressure over the Great Lakes will build southeast across Pennsylvania through tonight.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 72 92 73 86 / 10 10 40 40 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 71 90 71 84 / 20 10 50 50 70 Oak Ridge, TN 90 70 89 71 81 / 10 10 50 50 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 66 88 68 81 / 20 10 50 40 70.
Tonight Through Sunday The upper ridge continues over the Rockies and the upper trough has moved to the east coast. The upper ridge will expand eastward through the weekend. Abundant cumulus and cirrus continue over the state on the periphery of the high pressure. Expect the high clouds to dissipate late this evening. A cold front will approach the state Sunday.
High pressure was in control across the Northland early this morning with patchy areas of dense fog, especially across parts of northwest Wisconsin.
444 AM MDT Sat Jul 16 2022 Another hot day on tap as an upper level ridge remains in place over the region. On Sunday things are expected to be considerably warmer with widespread triple digit high temperatures expected, with a few record highs being possible.
Monsoon moisture persists, bringing the potential for thunderstorms with gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall to the region, favoring the higher terrain. Isolated thunderstorm activity will continue this afternoon, but will favor the higher terrain due to orographics and surface heating providing the bulk of the lifting mechanism. Surface dew points of 50-55 degrees F this morning are about 10 degrees cooler than 24-hours ago, with precipitable water values between 1. Though it is an outlier of the high-resolution models, the 00Z HRRR hints at a thunderstorm complex over Sonora/northern Mexico that will push an outflow northwestward into the lower Colorado River Valley after sunset tonight. Widespread "Moderate" HeatRisk with "High" values in the lower valleys expected this weekend, so recreation outdoors in places such as Lake Mohave, Lake Havasu, and Death Valley is ill-advised during the hottest parts of the day.
expect instability to build and for a stronger wave rotating around the upper level ridge to provide better forcing for a line of strong to marginally severe storms to develop across central Nebraska near 00Z. high pressure aloft is expected to strengthen. along with a brief cool down associated with a dry cold front expected mid week.
228 AM PDT Sat Jul 16 2022 A warm/hot and dry weekend on tap with Saturday being slightly warmer. Today high pressure strengthens a little and 850 mb temperatures warm while flow through the Delta will end up being a little weaker.
This will cause the high pressure to shift ever so slightly westward towards the Four Corners. With the repositioning of the high and departing wave northwest flow will develop in the mid levels. Still expecting storms to form on the higher terrain around mid day and drift out over the valleys through the afternoon and dissipation in the evening. Tomorrow the high nudges back eastward as the next system moves into the Pacific Northwest.
A few thunderstorms or showers may develop this afternoon, mainly southeast of the area, along this trough axis. Otherwise, temperatures are expected to reach highs in the lower 90s east to middle 90s west this afternoon.
South southwest winds of 5 to 15 knots through today before a weak cold front turns winds to the north at DHT/GUY late tonight around 04z-05z.
A moisture rich environment coupled with a low to mid level inverted trough moving through the region has allowed for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm. The big winner has been in the Lower Keys, specifically from the Saddlebunch Keys to Key West where a quarter of an inch to about four-tenths of rainfall has occurred. The aforementioned inverted trough will continue to slide west through the day today. Regardless, the best moisture and lift, from speed convergence, should be this morning and therefore are carrying the highest chances this morning through mid-day.
1044 AM EDT Sat Jul 16 2022 Most of the island chain picked up accumulating rains overnight as the confluent eastern flank of an inverted trough pushed across the Keys. Temperatures are hovering in the lower to mid 80s, with dewpoints in the lower 70s. From synopsis, high pressure centered over the western North Atlantic will maintain gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys.
518 AM MDT Sat Jul 16 2022 07z analysis had diffuse trough from eastern MT into southeast WY/western NE. Sunday, upper ridge amplifies over the northern plains with subsidence/drying.
/issued 436 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022/ SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): High pressure situates itself back over the Central Plains for the Short Term period. As the ridge continues to build, pressure gradient tightens and breezy southeast winds will prevail with gusts up to 30 mph possible. Due to the subsidence associated with the ridge, high temperatures will begin to climb back up over the weekend. Tonight will be a bit cooler in the mid 70s due to mostly clear skies. As for tomorrow, similar forecast except high temperatures will be 1 to 2 degrees warmer.
SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): High pressure situates itself back over the Central Plains for the Short Term period. As the ridge continues to build, pressure gradient tightens and breezy southeast winds will prevail with gusts up to 30 mph possible. Due to the subsidence associated with the ridge, high temperatures will begin to climb back up over the weekend. Tonight will be a bit cooler in the mid 70s due to mostly clear skies. As for tomorrow, similar forecast except high temperatures will be 1 to 2 degrees warmer.
There is an upper ridge with a lot of dry air from California and offshore this morning. With the approach of the next trough over the Pacific Northwest, the afternoon breezes will be a little higher than Saturday.
/Issued 343 AM EDT Sat Jul 16 2022/ An upper level trough will remain along the east coast through the short term. Atwell By Sunday Night, a mid level low pressure system is situated across the central Great Lakes. A broad, flat, trough stretches down through the TN valley. The weakness between the sprawling high pressure to the west and the Western Atlantic high still exists across the CWA and Deep South.
Tonight the marine layer is expected to be fairly similar or possibly a bit shallower as the high pressure builds in.
629 AM EDT Sat Jul 16 2022 High pressure will build over the region today. On Sunday, a weak cold front will cross the region.
This activity should diminish arond 00Z as we will be under a mid/upper ridge axis with no synoptic support to maintain convection overnight. Tomorrow, a low pressure system will be tracking across the lower Great Lakes region. The northern sections will be on the higher end of that range, and with some weak shear present, that area will have a chance of seeing a few strong to marginally severe storms.
Heat index values will be even warmer as moisture pools near the boundary.
(This evening through Sunday) The upper level ridge of high pressure will stubbornly sit over the Four Corners region this evening and tonight before slowly drifting towards central Texas tomorrow.
A mean northerly to northeasterly flow aloft prevails across the forecast area this afternoon along the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge of high pressure stretching from the Four Corners to the southern Rockies/Plains and Mississippi Valley region. Moisture convergence along the trough axis will result in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms over southern portions of the area this afternoon, while other isolated showers and thunderstorms will also be possible over interior areas. Lows tonight range from around 70 degrees to the lower 70s over inland locations and in the mid to upper 70s along the immediate coast and beaches. Highs Sunday will range in the lower to mid 90s inland and in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.
The strong upper-level high pressure currently centered over the Four Corners region will inch further east through the day Sunday, resulting in increasing heights and consequently warmer temperatures across south-central TX.
The 850 mb theta-e ridge axis will remain well off to the northwest in west central Nebraska into central South Dakota. One more day of near normal highs for Sunday as the upper ridge starts to build in from the west again and regain prominence. Upper level ridge builds in even more for some hot weather for the rest of the week.
Temperatures are on track for maximums in the mid-to-upper 90s in most areas, with elongated ridging suppressing convection for a dry afternoon. I'm grasping at straws when it comes to ways to mix up my discussions with these summer ridge patterns. "Ridge, hot, no rain. Upper-level ridging will hang on strong over the next 36-hours, with temperatures reflecting as such. Precipitation also looks to be a figment of ones imagination, as subsidence with the ridge will damper this activity. /44/ (Sunday Night through Saturday) Northerly flow on the eastern periphery of an upper-level ridge centered over the Four Corners Region will slowly push a cold front south across the Plains and towards the forecast area.
A weak surface boundary remains positioned near the lower Missouri River Valley, with locations south able to bake in the available sunlight, with highs pushing the mid to upper 90s. Later tonight, an approaching open short wave traversing the larger trough into the region will provide ample forcing for ascent across the region for the development of showers and thunderstorms across the region. The lingering surface boundary will also provide an anchor for development with the short wave's arrival and the increase in the low level jet from the southwest.
A low pressure center is moving southward down the British Columbia coast, that will move into the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. As the low moves into the Northern Rockies Sunday night, additional storms are expected with the main focus shifting to northwest Montana.