Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure will then provide a mostly dry start to the work week, although temperatures will remain below average. Precipitation chances will increase after midnight ahead of a warm front rising north in the Middle Ohio Valley, especially to the south and west of Pittsburgh. Some snow may mix in initially in the higher elevations, with virtually no appreciable accumulation. Model soundings continue to indicate quite stable conditions in the lower levels.
Additionally, the cold front currently through the OK Panhandle has made steady progress this evening and is fcst to continue a pace that pushes the boundary through much of NE OK soon after sunrise Sunday.
813 PM CDT Sat May 8 2021 S/W ejecting out of the Rockies upper low is continuing to support light rain across a good portion of the CWA this evening. An area of low pressure is currently centered across northwestern KS, and a trough of low pressure extends NNW from there across the front range of the Northern Rockies. Any remaining shower activity by 12z Sunday should be confined to a fairly narrow band across portions of central SD, which will eventually be overtaken by drier air as high pressure drops in from the north. As the high moves in, sfc winds shift to the northeast through the day Sunday, and RH drops to 20-25 percent across west central MN during the afternoon.
744 PM EDT Sat May 8 2021 An upper level trough will continue moving into the Atlantic as dry high pressure builds across the area through tonight. High pressure will move offshore on Sunday bringing with it a warmer south/southwest wind flow.
929 PM CDT Sat May 8 2021 High pressure remains in control with dry air keeping rain showers to the southwest this evening. Here in the Northern Plains, we have an upper ridge over us that extends from TX north through the prairie provinces of Canada. An upper level low over the northern Rockies is trying to make progress eastward but is running up against the upper ridge. trough will make it east through the central U. cutting off the ridge/high over the prairie provinces. All that said to make the point that high pressure at the surface will stay in place over Manitoba and eastern ND and northern MN. The high over Manitoba will push south on Sunday and Sunday night, along with a reinforcing shot of cool air.
1020 PM EDT Sat May 8 2021 Showers across northern New York will end this evening with some partial clearing overnight as weak high pressure moves toward the region.
Although the city of Pocatello and Chubbuck may stay near freezing, outlying farmland will likely see temperatures fall below freezing.
It was still in the lower to mid 70's most places with the exception of the far eastern zones, where it was a little bit cooler and drier.
However, things could get a little slick overnight tonight on elevated surfaces (bridges over creeks, for example) for the northeastern half of the CWA and especially in the areas under the Winter Weather Advisory. With the current additional snow forecast (with the current "bullseye" over the Sheridan/Daniels/Roosevelt corner) and temperatures being near of slightly below freezing, feel it's better to let the advisory stick around where it is. Cannot rule out some accumulating snow in the higher elevations of the Little Rockies in Southwest Phillips County, with some spots seeing 2" or more up in elevation. Updated the temperatures to be more in line with CONSShort and RAP13 guidance, which was much cooler (and more realistic) than NBM. Some wrap around moisture will impact our western and southern zones tonight and tomorrow as it follows the Low out of our area.
645 PM EDT Sat May 8 2021 High pressure will move offshore Sunday.
555 PM MDT Sat May 8 2021 Latest analysis places the upper low over Montana. The main band of precipitation, which is occurring in a region of enhanced lift rotating around the upper low, has mainly pushed off to the northeast of the forecast area this afternoon. The upper low will shift very slightly eastward tonight so expect chances for showers to continue, with the greatest QPF expected in a NW-SE oriented band along the eastern edge of our forecast area. Temperatures near the ND border remain only in the lower to mid-30s this afternoon so there could be some light snow accumulation there late tonight into early Sunday. Instability associated with the slowly moving, slowly weakening, upper trough will bring another chance of showers on Sunday.
626 PM CDT Sat May 8 2021 An area of low pressure is currently centered across northwestern KS, and a trough of low pressure extends NNW from there across the front range of the Northern Rockies. Any remaining shower activity by 12z Sunday should be confined to a fairly narrow band across portions of central SD, which will eventually be overtaken by drier air as high pressure drops in from the north. As the high moves in, sfc winds shift to the northeast through the day Sunday, and RH drops to 20-25 percent across west central MN during the afternoon.
1027 PM EDT Sat May 8 2021 High pressure will move offshore Sunday.
545 PM MDT Sat May 8 2021 (09/00Z TAF period) A lingering low pressure system will cause widespread mountain- obscuring rain and mainly mountain snow with mostly MVFR conditions over the plains of north central Montana will gradually transition to all snow with mostly IFR conditions through 06Z. /ISSUED 545 PM MDT Sat May 8 2021/ Upper-level low continues to reside over north-central Montana this afternoon with disturbances rotating around the low pressure system. As this heavy snow over northeast Montana weakens this evening, attention turns to north-central and central Montana this evening into the overnight as a pair of disturbances along with a surface cold front move southeast from Alberta through north-central and central Montana.
Mid to upper level clouds continue to increase tonight which has kept temperatures a few degrees warmer than expected. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 81 62 74 53 / 0 30 90 50 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 80 59 69 50 / 0 30 80 60 10 Oak Ridge, TN 51 79 57 68 48 / 10 30 90 50 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 78 57 67 45 / 0 20 80 50 10.
1038 PM EDT Sat May 8 2021 An upper level trough will continue moving into the Atlantic as dry high pressure builds across the area through tonight. High pressure will move offshore on Sunday bringing with it a warmer south/southwest wind flow.
Updated the temperatures to be more in line with CONSShort and RAP13 guidance, which was much cooler (and more realistic) than NBM. Some wrap around moisture will impact our western and southern zones tonight and tomorrow as it follows the Low out of our area.
627 PM CDT Sat May 8 2021 A few light returns are evident on radar this afternoon along a warm frontal boundary draped across the northwestern fringes of the local area. but continue to expect the radar to get more active over the next few hours as the associated area of low pressure across southeastern Colorado tracks east and a cold front crosses the local area late this afternoon through evening. expect the chance for thunderstorms to diminish rapidly behind the cold front. as a trough aloft continues across the plains with off and on again small chances for light rain showers. expect high pressure to begin to nudge across the area from the west.
High pressure remains in control with dry air keeping rain showers to the southwest this evening. Here in the Northern Plains, we have an upper ridge over us that extends from TX north through the prairie provinces of Canada. An upper level low over the northern Rockies is trying to make progress eastward but is running up against the upper ridge. trough will make it east through the central U. cutting off the ridge/high over the prairie provinces. All that said to make the point that high pressure at the surface will stay in place over Manitoba and eastern ND and northern MN. The high over Manitoba will push south on Sunday and Sunday night, along with a reinforcing shot of cool air.
1047 PM MDT Sat May 8 2021 Latest analysis places the upper low over Montana. The main band of precipitation, which is occurring in a region of enhanced lift rotating around the upper low, has mainly pushed off to the northeast of the forecast area this afternoon. The upper low will shift very slightly eastward tonight so expect chances for showers to continue, with the greatest QPF expected in a NW-SE oriented band along the eastern edge of our forecast area. Temperatures near the ND border remain only in the lower to mid-30s this afternoon so there could be some light snow accumulation there late tonight into early Sunday. Instability associated with the slowly moving, slowly weakening, upper trough will bring another chance of showers on Sunday.
341 AM EDT Sun May 9 2021 Today will warm up as high pressure shifts offshore and a cold front approaches.
329 AM CDT Sun May 9 2021 A mid level trough continues to move eastward across Kansas this morning at 08Z per Satellite and profilers. Surface outflow was moving across southeast Kansas while the cold front was extended from northeast Kansas to south central Kansas at 08Z. Latest trends show the low level jet veering to the southwest with the best moisture transport shifting into Missouri.
129 AM EDT Sun May 9 2021 A weak warm front will lift across the area on Sunday.
307 AM CDT Sun May 9 2021 At 245 AM, skies were mostly cloudy, with a large rain shield just south of the area associated with strong mid-level frontogenesis north of low pressure pushing into Missouri. As the upper level low near Hudsons Bay moves slowly off to the southeast, the upper level ridging over western Canada should slide in behind it and be over the Upper Midwest through the middle of the week. This ridging still looks to be in a decaying stage as it comes in and should dissipate over the last part of the work week allowing a weak northwest flow aloft to set up.
High pressure will then provide a mostly dry start to the work week, although temperatures will remain below average. Models continue to trend north with the low track, now progged to cross north of the Mason-Dixon Line. Precipitation will diminish over the course of the evening as the low exits east.
143 AM EDT Sun May 9 2021 Showers across northern New York will end this evening with some partial clearing overnight as weak high pressure moves toward the region.
Forecast soundings are pretty marginal overall with the lowest 2,000 feet right at freezing for a few hours or so.
307 AM EDT Sun May 9 2021 High pressure will move offshore today.
Beyond Sunday, split upper flow will continue across the lower 48. Temperatures will be cooler through mid week. A wind shift to the northwest is expected tomorrow evening as a cold front moved through JBR, MEM and MKL.
Mid to upper level clouds continue to increase tonight which has kept temperatures a few degrees warmer than expected. A cold front will be moving across KY and TN later today and increasing instability across Middle and East TN during the afternoon hours. AC Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 62 74 53 72 / 30 90 50 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 80 59 69 50 69 / 30 80 60 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 79 57 68 48 68 / 30 90 50 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 57 67 45 66 / 20 80 50 10 10.
/ISSUED 545 PM MDT Sat May 8 2021/ Upper-level low continues to reside over north-central Montana this afternoon with disturbances rotating around the low pressure system. As this heavy snow over northeast Montana weakens this evening, attention turns to north-central and central Montana this evening into the overnight as a pair of disturbances along with a surface cold front move southeast from Alberta through north-central and central Montana.
With these strong southerly winds, expect for things to be much warmer today with highs in the 70s across the area, which is closer to normal than we have seen lately.
VFR conditions are currently found across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas early this morning with MVFR conditions set to become more common Sunday morning as a cold front moves through the region. Additionally, the cold front currently through the OK Panhandle has made steady progress this evening and is fcst to continue a pace that pushes the boundary through much of NE OK soon after sunrise Sunday.
A long wave ridge off the west coast will move slowly east through the weekend with northwest flow aloft over the WFO Medford forecast area. The ridge will build in fits and starts due to weak short waves moving over the top of it.
312 AM EDT Sun May 9 2021 High pressure will build into the region today.
Models hold off on instability for most of the morning but ramps up in the afternoon thanks to the strong southerly winds and approaching cold front. Deep layer shear will be in place, and even some directional shear in the low levels with 0-1 km shear around 20-35 knots.
Northwest flow aloft will remain over the area tonight with an upper level low situated over Montana.
A few light returns are evident on radar this afternoon along a warm frontal boundary draped across the northwestern fringes of the local area. but continue to expect the radar to get more active over the next few hours as the associated area of low pressure across southeastern Colorado tracks east and a cold front crosses the local area late this afternoon through evening. expect the chance for thunderstorms to diminish rapidly behind the cold front. as a trough aloft continues across the plains with off and on again small chances for light rain showers. expect high pressure to begin to nudge across the area from the west.
1212 AM CDT Sun May 9 2021 A warm front will move northward into central MO and southern IL by early evening.
Shallow nature of the moisture layer could limit any further light shower development later today, but with elongated mid-level vorticity sliding into the region from the west-northwest, and many of the high-res model solutions still producing some spotty light QPF, feel continued 20-30 pops are warranted into the early evening hours. Given the dry air in place, did hedge toward colder side of guidance for lows tonight, erring on cautious side given the cooler temperatures would lead to increased frost potential.
(Today and tonight) Strong cold front by May standards will continue to push south/southeast across the area this morning. Otherwise, much cooler temperatures today as highs this afternoon will be in the 70s across much of the area as opposed to the 80s and 90s of Saturday. For tonight, convection is expected to develop across the high plains to our west as minor disturbance along with upslope low level flow aid in its development.
Messy upper trof lingers across the Rockies into the plains for the first half the week.
Towards late afternoon, showers and thunderstorms are expected to be moving along and ahead of the cold front.
A cold front is marching quickly south and east across OK and stretches from near I35 in north central OK to Altus in SW OK. Otherwise the cold front will continue to sweep southeast thru the morning across eastern OK and northwest AR.
1217 AM CDT Sun May 9 2021 Should see prevailing MVFR ceilings across all but the ELD and MLU terminals to start the 06z TAF period with those terminal locations getting in on the lower ceilings in the next 4 hours or so. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop along and in advance of a cold front today that will begin moving into our northwest airspace late this afternoon.
Mid tropospheric trough will continue to move east through the region today, with some spotty light rain. Otherwise, as low pressure moves away from the region, a ridge of high pressure at the surface should build into the area today and tonight.
While temperatures will start out a tad cooler than normal the trend will be to warm through the week and fluctuate between normal highs and lows.
High pressure over the eastern Gulf and low pressure east of the Rockies allowing for tight pressure gradient and breezy southerly winds.
Cooler temps are expected with showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and overnight hours with a possibility of severe storms in the southwest. The cool air mass behind the front will keep highs a bit cooler than climo norms. With the low clouds blanketing the area overnight, think low temps will remain in the 40s.
High pressure will continue to build into the area bringing northerly winds to western Kansas.
339 AM CDT Sun May 9 2021 Will start the day on the backside of a weak upper trough with a flat ridge stretching across the southern half of the country. Will also have an upper low over MT today.
624 AM CDT Sun May 9 2021 Showers continue in the upper low across central SD early this morning. As the clouds clear from north to south, temps will fall quickly tonight into the lower 30s, perhaps even the upper 20s again with H85 temps in the negative single digits. Highs today will be suppressed again given the trough, precip, and cloud cover. Combined with some northerly flow around the exiting upper low, min RH and wind gusts will come close to critical fire danger criteria across far northeast SD and west central MN on Monday. Upper pattern to start off the extended features a trough over the eastern CONUS, and a weak upper high north of a weak upper low just upstream.
Thereafter, quiet weather will prevail, with much cooler readings with highs in the 50s under mostly cloudy skies. A unseasonably cool night is expected, with lows falling into the upper 30s in northeast Missouri to the lower 40s elsewhere. General troughing will persist over the central CONUS through mid- week.
An upper level low pressure system centered over southeast MT will move into northern SD today while an upper trough persists across the Great Basin. With a cool airmass in place and a north to northeast wind 5 to 15 mph, lows will be in the low to mid 50s. For tonight, an upper level trough will remain over the Great Basin. While some clearing is possible across the eastern half of the area, a northern stream trough to our north will bring the potential for increased cloud cover. Used CONSMOS for lows tonight in the low to mid 30s across much of the Sandhills.
As of 12Z, a cold front extends from HOB to near MAF. /issued 339 AM CDT Sun May 9 2021/ Will start the day on the backside of a weak upper trough with a flat ridge stretching across the southern half of the country. Will also have an upper low over MT today.
Current forecast has the lows bottoming out in the 30s, with parts of west central Wisconsin falling to around 30 degrees. On Monday a piece of energy from a sheared out H5 low to our west will get picked up by the upper low spinning north of the Great Lakes. The trend for warmer temperatures remains, as well as chances for showers and thunderstorms.
647 AM CDT Sun May 9 2021 At 245 AM, skies were mostly cloudy, with a large rain shield just south of the area associated with strong mid-level frontogenesis north of low pressure pushing into Missouri. As the upper level low near Hudsons Bay moves slowly off to the southeast, the upper level ridging over western Canada should slide in behind it and be over the Upper Midwest through the middle of the week. This ridging still looks to be in a decaying stage as it comes in and should dissipate over the last part of the work week allowing a weak northwest flow aloft to set up.
A closed upper low & associated short wave trough continues to drift eastward across the northern high plains early this morning, setting the stage for instability driven rain/ snow showers this afternoon and evening. Temperatures today should be considerably cooler than yesterday in the post-frontal air mass with daytime highs unlikely to get much warmer than 50 deg F along and west of I-25. Best guess based on NAM/GFS/HRRR BUFKIT soundings is for snow levels down to around 5500 feet elevation, but profiles even as far east as Sidney quite possibly could support snow with sub-freezing temperatures present just 500-1000 feet off the surface.
625 AM EDT Sun May 9 2021 High pressure will move offshore today. A cold front and upper level disturbance will move into the region from the west Monday, then exit offshore Monday night.
A low pressure system will move across the Ohio Valley today and a zonal flow over the Central CONUS continues to persist for the short-term period ahead of the next trough from the west early in the week.
An approaching cold front will cause some showers and thunderstorms in the Austin Area and for now have covered with VCTS as there is little certainty that these storms will impact the terminal. The dryline tomorrow will march from west eastward while an approaching cold front marches south. By Monday, a stalled cold front near the region and it's associated dryline extending southward could provide a focus area for more strong to severe storms, though there still seems to be a lack of significant forcing.
334 AM PDT Sun May 9 2021 A trough of low pressure across the northern Rockies will maintain onshore flow with periods of gusty westerly winds over the mountains and deserts through Monday.
Overall, a nice, but cooler than average day today with highs mostly in the mid to upper 50s. The upcoming week will feature toward warmer temps and a continuation of precipitation deficits. Upper ridge will be moving over the northern plains Tue, when we will begin our warming trend into the 60s throughout the area. Upstream upper trough will undercut the ridge as the energy remains south over the central plains, where any active weather will remain. By the end of the week though, an area of low pressure and increased moisture will create pcpn chances for Fri and Sat.
The latest runs of the CAMS have been consistent in showing this line weakening and moving southeast of the CWA by 14Z as the low level jet veers and instability weakens. Latest runs of the RAP suggests that this low will move east across the southern part of the CWA around Midday. Forecast soundings are showing a small area of CAPE and the CAMS are showing the potential for showers as a weak trough moves through the area.
452 AM MDT Sun May 9 2021 At the start of the short term period, the CWA has a southwesterly flow aloft as the CWA is underneath the front part of an upper air trough with an upper air low over south-central MT early Sunday morning. On Monday, the upper air low in MT looks to move slightly towards ID as a jet streak moves in from the Pacific Northwest beginning to enhance the upper air trough by the afternoon hours. Overview: A broad upper level trough will amplify over the Intermountain West and central Rockies on Mon/Tue. The aforementioned trough (or broad upper low) will progress eastward across the Central Plains on Wed. characterized by an amplifying ridge over the western CONUS mid-late week.
A few high clouds are sliding south early this morning as the region remains on the backside of the trough to our east, otherwise skies are clear. Amplified upper air pattern continues early this week with troughing to our east and high pressure building off the coast. Combined with the low RH, red flag conditions will persist.
The upcoming week will feature toward warmer temps and a continuation of precipitation deficits. Upper ridge will be moving over the northern plains Tue, when we will begin our warming trend into the 60s throughout the area. Upstream upper trough will undercut the ridge as the energy remains south over the central plains, where any active weather will remain. By the end of the week though, an area of low pressure and increased moisture will create pcpn chances for Fri and Sat.
Aside from a dying front bringing a chance of light rain showers to the area this morning, high pressure will gradually shift over the region through midweek and result in mainly dry weather and warming temperatures.
351 AM MDT Sun May 9 2021 Lingering rain and snow showers continue across NE Montana and will end from northeast to southwest today as low pressure begins to move out of the area. Ensembles point to upper ridging over the western U.