Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Resident airmass remains largely unchanged from yesterday's, the key changes being better mixing behind the ridge axis and a strong southwest gradient that will advect warm temps into the Thumb. Southwest gradient will continue through tonight as the low lifts toward the U.
657 AM EDT Wed May 17 2017 Main concern will be strong south-southwest winds within decent pressure gradient between high pressure to the southeast and low pressure ejecting from central plains northeast along frontal boundary. As low pressure lifts into northern Great Lakes on Thursday, the frontal boundary will sag south and tightening pressure gradient to the south of front will likely lead to even high gusts, especially KPTK south. Resident airmass remains largely unchanged from yesterday's, the key changes being better mixing behind the ridge axis and a strong southwest gradient that will advect warm temps into the Thumb. Southwest gradient will continue through tonight as the low lifts toward the U.
255 AM MST Wed May 17 2017 A series of low pressure systems will move through the Desert Southwest the remainder of the week, bringing cooler temperatures, breezy conditions, and a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to the higher terrain of eastern Arizona. For today, mostly clear skies are forecast over our area, southeast CA to south central AZ, with a warmer afternoon over yesterday, but still below normal. As it approaches today, a cold front will move into far northern AZ by evening. However, a slight chance of afternoon instability showers or thunderstorms are possible over the highest terrain of zone 24, southern Gila County bordering the White Mtns Thursday afternoon. Therefore afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts today and Thursday will settle in the mid to upper 80s, 6 to 8 degrees below normal.
137 AM EDT Wed May 17 2017 Aviation Unseasonably warm weather will continue through Thursday before a cold front moves through late Thursday.
Upper low will move southeast out of Washington early this morning across Idaho today and to Utah and Colorado tonight and Thursday. A rain shield to the northeast of this low will reach as far east as Chinook, Zortman, and Miles City today. Meanwhile, a tight surface gradient between high pressure in Saskatchewan and low pressure in Wyoming will create gusty east winds today. The east winds will bring very dry low level air which combined with an upper ridge over the area will limit the northeast extent of the rain shield.
An upper level low will pass to our north and east today bringing strong north winds across portions of southern Great Basin, chance for showers in northern Lincoln and Mohave Counties today and tomorrow, and keep temperatures 8 to 10 degrees below normal.
Upper level low pressure system is directly over the central mountains of Idaho area this morning will shift east into Eastern Idaho this afternoon. Showers will continue through Thursday, mainly in the higher terrain of Southwest Idaho as the low slowly moves southeast into Colorado.
The higher LCLs of 1250 to 1500m help limit the tornado threat. The main concern is heavy rain as an inverted trough of low pressure remains stationary over the region. A stationary front as seen in the H925 winds and isotherms will stall out across the region as the low level jet strengthens overnight. By 00Z, the low looks to be near far northwest Iowa with the warm front extending to the northeast. After that front drops through by Thursday, a much cooler several days are expected as we remain in cool northerly flow with a canadian high pushing south into the Upper Midwest. However, the next storm system will be taking shape along the lee of the rockies as a norther deep upper trough pushes through the four corners region.
For today, brisk to breezy east/southeast flow will continue to prevail, thanks in part to the region being under a tight pressure gradient on the southern periphery of high pressure anchored near Bermuda. Brisk to occasionally breezy east/southeast flow will continue into the short term period with little change in the synoptic pattern, as high pressure remains locked in the western Atlantic basin. Strengthening high pressure building near Bermuda will lead to increasing east/southeast winds across the local waters over the next several days. Strengthening high pressure, to the east, is forecast to keep the wind out of the east while strengthening them to around 15 to 20 kts.
Forecast soundings show a fairly well capped atmosphere as the ridge holds firm across the southeastern U. As a low pressure system swings across the Plains tomorrow, tightening pressure and height gradients will lead to stronger southerly winds in the ArkLaMiss.
High pressure will remain in control through the short term for a quiet 24 hours.
High pressure slowly building south will increase gradient forcing overnight so upped winds a bit and continued that trend into Wednesday. Main change for evening update was to add patchy fog generally along and north of Highway 200 as latest run of high res-models continues to indicate some fog developing after midnight as cooler airmass backs its way into the area. Much colder air from Canada will move in and we'll likely see frost two or three nights this week as overnight lows dip in the low 30s.
340 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017 Upper level ridge that was expanded over the Gulf Coast is shifting east. Enhancement of onshore flow is steadily increasing moisture levels with dewpoints rising into the lower 70s.
145 AM EDT Wed May 17 2017 Bermuda high pressure will extend west into the southeastern U. A backdoor cold front will settle south through VA Fri night and into NC on Sat. Min temps will generally be in the mid 60s with lower 60s in the normally cooler locations.
Later on this evening as the dryline begins to retreat west, it will converge and combine with an advancing cold front as the powerful and compact upper level low ejects out of eastern New Mexico across the Texas Panhandle overnight and into the Central Plains by Wednesday morning. Wednesday will provide a break between this evenings upper level low and another that arrives on our doorstep late Thursday.
The low pressure system that brought showers and thunderstorms to the region earlier today continues to push northeast and away from the area, while another is currently intensifying over Colorado. Low pressure will be moving across IA/MN and into Wisconsin Wednesday night through Thursday morning.
413 AM MDT Wed May 17 2017 The low pressure system over southwest Kansas will lift northeastward along a stationary front into eastern Nebraska by late this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will lift out of the forecast area by this afternoon as the low lifts into Nebraska. Additional showers are expected to move into the western sections of the forecast area overnight ahead of the next low pressure system due to move east of the Rockies by late in the week.
Windy conditions are expected to persist through the desert and Kern county mountains through this evening as surface pressure gradients remain strong with high pressure over the Eastern Pacific and low pressure over the desert southwest. Upper level high pressure over the Eastern Pacific will begin to nudge east toward the California coastline Thursday into the weekend resulting in a warming trend.
will remain in a quiet weather pattern for the next 24 hours with high pressure in control.
As upper low rotates north northeastward across the central Plains today, the surface pressure gradient will increase across our area, with southerly winds becoming gusty.
239 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017 Warmer night across the Midsouth. with current temperatures running in the low to mid 70s under mostly clear skies.
1000 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 High pressure will remain over the eastern conus through the upcoming weekend.
A southerly breeze will persist overnight in assoc/w a relatively tight MSLP gradient on the eastern periphery of the lee trough in western KS. With southerly flow /warm advection/ overnight, expect lows Fri morning to be warmer than previous days, ranging from the mid 40s in eastern CO (where the MSLP gradient will be weaker) to mid/upper 50s east of Hwy 83 (where the MSLP gradient will remain tight). Friday the highs will continue to be warmer as warm air advection continues. Friday evening the winds will gradually decline as the surface pressure gradient weakens some ahead of the approaching pre-frontal trough.
Plan on a few passing cirrus, otherwise light southwest breezes will prevail and highs will top out in the lower to middle 70s. Highs today will reach the low to mid 70s, with everyone solidly into the mid 70s Friday.
There will be mid-to-high clouds as the trough off the West Coast feeds moisture into the upper flow.
Afternoon highs will be in the lower 80s with comfortable humidity levels.
1009 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 High pressure will maintain dry weather and warmer than normal temperatures through the weekend. Surface pressure map shows high pressure in place over the Eastern USA with axis from the Southeast USA to just south of New England. Observed temps in the mixed layer this morning support highs in the lower to mid 70s. Strong high pressure centered over the Appalachians will provide bright sunshine. High temperatures are only expected to be slightly cooler.
The current upper level analysis shows split flow over western CONUS as an amplifying trough moves into the PAC NW with a weaker southern stream flow entering the desert SW. The PAC NW trough begins to advance southeast and merge with the southern stream flow on Friday. A strengthening pressure gradient and lee trough will result in breezy to windy conditions across most of the Panhandles Friday afternoon and evening.
Expect scattered showers through this evening as an area of low pressure moves through the region today.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 45 78 48 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 43 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 73 44 78 48 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 73 41 77 43 / 0 0 0 0.
1048 AM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017 Latest satellite imagery showing upper clouds moving in ahead of the incoming trough. The flow aloft will start to increase late this afternoon and tonight as the trough axis shifts eastward across the state. The high will be well above the average of 64 but fall short of the record of 86 for this date. An increasing southwest flow aloft ahead of an upper level trough moving across the Pacific Northwest will bring warm temperatures Friday. A deepening lee side trough will result in windy conditions, mainly over the higher terrain.
933 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 A weak cold front will push across the forecast area this afternoon. High pressure will quickly build back over the area and linger through the weekend. A weak cold front across SERN WI will move across the forecast area this afternoon. High pressure quickly builds back over the forecast area tonight and will remain anchored over the area into weekend. The short term begins with high pressure centered in southwest PA and extending over the Ohio Valley. The airmass will be dry and there will be an upper ridge in place across the region.
1214 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 Surface analysis shows an area of high pressure centered just to our south across the greater Tennessee Valley. Otherwise nearby high pressure will continue to provide clear and calm conditions across eastern Kentucky. Strong ridging will continue to hold over the region through Friday with heights continuing to build. Overnight lows Thursday night will remain chilly with lows into the upper 30s to around 40 with ridges staying closer to the upper 40s. An anomalously strong upper ridge will be over the southeast CONUS as the period starts, providing dry and mild weather for the local area.
Expect isolated showers through this evening as an area of low pressure moves through southern Utah today.
Temperatures have been climbing a few degrees each day the past few days and should reach the low to mid 70s this afternoon. 1028 mb high pressure over the central and southern Appalachians will stay anchored in place through tonight while upper level ridge builds into IL providing the nice weather. A weakening cold front to the NW wavering in the region today. Temps tonight a few degrees warmer than this morning as south/southwesterly flow in the midlevels keeps the warm air advection going.
Dry and mild today ahead of tomorrow's trough and associated cold front.
With high pressure centered just to the east of the area there's not much going on. Expect sunny skies and temperatures warming into the low to mid 70s.
A dry cold front is beginning to march across the Great Lakes as advertised with little in the way of even clouds with it.
710 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather through the weekend. High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather. The building high pressure dome will continue to moderate temperatures through the weekend.
422 AM PDT Thu Oct 19 2017 Increasing clouds and cooler temperatures today. Main frontal band moves through during the nighttime hours tonight will bring a good chance of rain to most of the cwa with snow at the higher elevations. Upper troughing will continue to feed cool air into the region so highs on Friday will range from 10 to 15 degrees below normal.
921 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 A warm front will cross the region today, with a cold front crossing the region tonight.
/issued 410 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017/ Skies were fair overnight with temperatures noticeably warmer overnight with temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s. a ridge of high pressure was over the region with troughing across the eastern and western United States. A weaker short wave trough was moving eastward this morning across New Mexico and extreme west Texas into Mexico. high pressure across the eastern United States was still ridging westward all the way into our area. So, we are generally just expecting a continued warmup today with clouds increasing mainly where the low level moisture gets established into Texas.
/Issued 305 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017/ Strong high pressure ridge continues to dominate the area through the short term, resulting in a very benign forecast period. Upper level high pressure axis will shift eastward through the period, and gradual warming trend is expected with the influence of this dominating feature. Still indicating a few isolated areas of patchy frost in the weather grids through 9 AM this morning, but with morning lows slightly warmer than yesterday and frost potential a bit lower, do not feel it warrants a Special Weather Statement at this time. Do not expect any frost Friday morning with the warmer thermal profile.
GOES-16 clearly showing the lower conditions with rain bands along coastal counties of NE FL and low CIGs Gainesville to Ocala.
1107 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 Mostly clear skies and a warming trend are expected into the weekend, as a dry upper ridge builds across the region.
753 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 High pressure will remain over the eastern conus through the upcoming weekend.
900 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 An upper ridge in the Gulf of Mexico will provide a stable and generally dry air mass for much of the area. High pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley this morning will maintain northeasterly winds today. It will be warm day with the highs 3 to 6 degrees above norm.
745 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 A warm front will cross the region today, with a cold front crossing the region tonight.
531 AM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017 Latest upper air analysis shows the trough beginning to develop over the western CONUS. To the east the ridge was shifting east over the Plains. Highs will increase some from yesterday as warm air advection continues ahead of the approaching upper level trough. Friday the highs will continue to be warmer as warm air advection continues. Friday evening the winds will gradually decline as the surface pressure gradient weakens some ahead of the approaching pre-frontal trough.
Dry and warm with highs in the low to mid 80s. /issued 410 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017/ Skies were fair overnight with temperatures noticeably warmer overnight with temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s. a ridge of high pressure was over the region with troughing across the eastern and western United States. A weaker short wave trough was moving eastward this morning across New Mexico and extreme west Texas into Mexico. high pressure across the eastern United States was still ridging westward all the way into our area. So, we are generally just expecting a continued warmup today with clouds increasing mainly where the low level moisture gets established into Texas.
936 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017 Another cool fall morning with temperatures already rising into the low to mid 50s as of 930AM this morning underneath a high pressure system centered over western NC. Made some minor trend adjustments to the dewpoints and temperatures, but daytime highs in the low to mid 70s with dewpoints in the upper 40s/near 50 are on track.
Otherwise nearby high pressure will continue to provide clear and calm conditions across eastern Kentucky. Strong ridging will continue to hold over the region through Friday with heights continuing to build. Overnight lows Thursday night will remain chilly with lows into the upper 30s to around 40 with ridges staying closer to the upper 40s. An anomalously strong upper ridge will be over the southeast CONUS as the period starts, providing dry and mild weather for the local area.
Pleasant Thursday on tap with mostly clear skies and near normal temps as regime stays ridge dominated. /Issued 734 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017/ Strong high pressure ridge continues to dominate the area through the short term, resulting in a very benign forecast period. Upper level high pressure axis will shift eastward through the period, and gradual warming trend is expected with the influence of this dominating feature. Still indicating a few isolated areas of patchy frost in the weather grids through 9 AM this morning, but with morning lows slightly warmer than yesterday and frost potential a bit lower, do not feel it warrants a Special Weather Statement at this time. Do not expect any frost Friday morning with the warmer thermal profile.
1129 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather through the weekend. Clear skies today will only briefly be interrupted by a weak and dry cold front dragged through by a high latitude system moving east near James Bay. Several models show low-level moisture associated with the weak front, dropping down from the southern Great Lakes this evening, eventually pooling near the higher elevations. High pressure will re-build through the weekend, keeping it warm and dry.
During the evening winds will decrease slightly and shift to the northeast as a cold front moves through the area. It will be followed by a second UL trough which will pass around mid-day Monday.
752 AM EDT Sun Apr 8 2018 Drying will occur this morning with low pressure moving farther northeast and high pressure moving into the region in its wake. Moisture will increase tonight in an easterly flow and ahead of low pressure south of the area.
/EC/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: Latest observational data showing the far northeastern areas have managed to drop to the freezing mark, while further west reading were just above. Thereafter, veering low level winds as high pressure center moves off to the east will begin to bring low level moisture and cloud cover back into the area from the southwest. Model soundings seem to indicate moisture depth with the weak ascent will be sufficiently deep for patchy drizzle in proximity to this low pressure feature which will exit to the east before sunrise Monday.
Flat upper level ridge was over the area with an upper trough over MT and southern ALTA.
Pretty stable looking sounding in the low levels with modified Arctic air in place from surface to 3400 feet. As cold air advection lessens this morning, over-running process will abate but likely regenerate as warm frontogenesis initiates later today into tonight. /issued 419 AM CDT Sun Apr 8 2018/ Upper level trough that brought a cold front and thunderstorm activity to the area yesterday is now east of the area and headed towards the Atlantic coast. Showers will continue lingering across coastal parishes in response to previous cold front gradually lifting back north towards the northern Gulf Coast.
Atmosphere is now warm enough behind this morning's warm front, for all of this precipitation to take the form of liquid rain. This is in association with a baroclinic zone passing across northern Kansas as an upper level trof moves across the greater region. Fire weather conditions look marginal today and the most favorable conditions will be near the Colorado border, where it will be warmer.
1204 PM EDT Sun Apr 8 2018 WPC analysis continues to a depict a weak cold front slowly dropping down from central Florida. The cold front over the panhandle of Florida will gradually push to the south today.
Light precipitation chances then return for Monday with a trough of low pressure. Best coverage will remain north of US-422, but flurries should reach as far south as Pittsburgh and down the PA ridges. Coverage will decrease this afternoon as the mid-level trough axis departs and moisture decreases, but did add a minor accumulation across the northern counties. High pressure should maintain dry weather through much of tonight as it slides E.
Low clouds should linger through the day as low-level moisture remains trapped below warmer air aloft. Elevated nerly winds at issuance time are progged to diminish next few hours as the gradient relaxes on the advance of high pressure. High pressure is moving across the central sections of the country with the ridge expected to be centered over the Ohio Valley by this morning. A ridge aloft is centered over North Mexico and will also build east through today. The ridge aloft over Mexico will build in and exit east through tonight.
Latest Radar imagery showers a few spots of drizzle/sprinkles in the lower clouds but measurable rain chances generally remain below 20% today.
The lower valley shall remain the slowest to clear featuring broken skies with MVFR ceilings into the early afternoon at BRO and HRL.
That being said, am watching the low stratus continuing to recede from our southern counties and parishes, while it skirts around our east Texas counties.
Expect highs in the lower/mid 80s south before convection initiates and range to only the lower 70s along the Volusia coast. Stratus is expected to return tonight to most terminals as the front returns north as a warm front.
Also been adjusting freezing rain or freezing drizzle potential across central SD, which looks to be waning over the next couple hours. High pressure will be attempting to near from the north, but another weak trough will keep a small mention of snow in the forecast overnight.
A chance for snow across parts of central Minnesota today into Monday but otherwise just increasing clouds and just a bit warmer today across the Northland with highs in the mid 30s. Decreasing clouds and warmer on Monday with highs in the upper 30s, which is still around ten degrees below normal for this time of year. A broad area of high pressure builds across the northern Great Plains on Monday leading to clearing skies, though with a lack of a significant airmass change diurnal heating is expected to lead to afternoon cu across much of the Northland on Monday afternoon.
Temperatures through Monday morning are projected to remain above freezing in the 30s, so kept all precipitation in liquid form.
1012 AM EDT Sun Apr 8 2018 Aviation section updated A low pressure system will bring some rain and snow to central Indiana tonight into Monday night. Surface analysis late this morning shows high pressure in place across northern Illinois. Low pressure was found across the western plains along with a warm frontal boundary stretching from Nb in to IA and MO. This appears reasonable given the invading clouds to west along with the approaching warm front.