Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
With high temperatures forecast to mainly be in the low 90s across the area and the deep atmospheric moisture, there will be ample instability for the development of thunderstorms this afternoon and into the evening. On Saturday, the Bermuda High will begin to shift eastward as an upper trough approaches the area from the midwest. The influence of the high will serve to slow the advancement of the trough as it approaches.
257 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021 Skies are partly cloudy across the Mid-South with temperatures in the lower 70s to upper 80s. Temperatures will remain on the warm side with lows Saturday morning in the lower 70s. A cold front will be approaching the region from the north on Saturday. Temperatures will be cooler on Saturday with the clouds and rain in the area with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Thunderstorms will continue into Saturday night as the cold front moves into northern sections of the region.
148 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 A cold front over the eastern Great Lakes will drift very slowly to the south tonight through the upcoming weekend as several weak waves of low pressure ride northeast along it.
1100 AM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021 An area of high pressure was centered over northern Wisconsin early this morning. While the center of the high looks to drift slowly east through the overnight hours, the overall ridge axis looks to remain nearly stationary.
Deep layer ridging and some mid-level air will continue to build in from the east through Saturday. Lows tonight in the lower 70s with highs in the lower to possibly mid 90s.
The cam models indicate a general slow eastward progression of the convection across the lower Ohio Valley through early this evening. Overnight lows will again be in the lower 70s, with very humid 70 degree dew points. On Saturday, the axis of the 500 mb trough will push farther east. The afternoon hours should be relatively quiet compared to this afternoon, since the trough axis will be to our east. However, the remnants of a diffuse frontal boundary will be stalled across the lower Ohio Valley.
The weekend will be predominantly influenced by a very broad area of high pressure at the surface. This high will be centered Wisconsin, with its southern periphery down toward the I-44 to I-40 region, with steady light NE winds in the area. The return flow on the western flank of the ridge will see the return of some rain chances through the week, mainly across the far southwestern zones, where the boundary will be more prevalent. The mid level pattern through the week will be heavily influenced by upstream mid level ridging, which will see some spread eastward and become more of a player for our local weather regime.
Low-level ridging stretches west across northern Florida which supports moderate east to southeast breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys.
The upper levels feature a lower amplitude mean ridge over the western US with troughing over the northeastern states. At the sfc, high pressure has moved into Great Lakes and upper Midwest. The northwest flow in the mid/upper levels continues to advect some wildfire smoke into the region although the forecast of vertically integrated smoke appears to keep the highest concentrations to our north and west. First, the upper level ridge is expected to build and gradually expand eastward this weekend.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): Weak ridging aloft will build into the CWA through the short-term part of the forecast. Afternoon highs on Saturday should also be slightly warmer than today's observed highs given the drier conditions and weaker onshore flow.
1200 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021 Updated aviation section for 18z taf issuance A slow moving surface front and upper level trof will be pushing slowly southeast into the mid Mississippi River Valley today, providing a focus for more shower and thunderstorm activity along and south of the surface boundary. Depending on the amount of solar heating and instability that can be generated this afternoon (with surface dew points from near 70 to the lower 70s), we could be looking at a few stronger storms to monitor, especially along and north of the Ohio River closer to the weak surface front.
304 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021 (Issued 304 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021) Tonight through Saturday night: High clouds will gradually thin over southeast WI and shift to the east overnight as low pressure over Ohio moves out. High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will bring a picture perfect summer weekend to southern WI.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 87 71 85 70 / 30 60 60 80 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 87 70 83 69 / 20 60 60 80 40 Oak Ridge, TN 71 85 70 82 68 / 30 70 60 80 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 87 68 81 66 / 20 70 70 80 40.
Additional forcing will be provided by a wave passing across the area as it rotates around the southern periphery of the ridge today into tomorrow which will help facilitate storm activity. The latest ensemble means supported an active weather pattern across the Desert Southwest as the upper high amplifies and becomes centered over the four corners region this weekend. Min RH values will be in the 25-35 percent range at the lower elevations, with higher values in the mountains.
228 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021 High pressure at the surface will keep relatively cooler and more stable air in place tonight into Saturday.
The weak mid level ridge will be over the coastal plains of south Texas tonight and Saturday. 7 inches with an area of even drier air off the lower Texas coast. A very weak mid level trough axis will be moving south through south- central Texas Saturday night.
If there's any upside, temperatures should be in the low to mid 80s for highs both days this weekend.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop later this afternoon on the high plains, then move to the southeast during the evening hours.
Have maintained thunderstorm coverage in line with blend of the high-res models for the afternoon, with coverage dropping off after sunset.
1143 AM MDT Fri Jul 16 2021 A hot, but generally unsettled weather pattern should prevail over much of the region over the next several days as large scale upper level ridging remains in control w/ numerous disturbances expected to traverse the flow along the edge of the ridge.
331 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 The upper ridge over the western Atlantic and the southeast states persists through the night. The upper ridge begins to break down overnight as An upper trough deepens into the southeast states over the weekend. have left the highest pops across the northern third of the forecast area Saturday and Saturday night.
The large scale upper pattern across the United States will be dominated by a strong anticyclone over the Intermountain West. Downstream troughing will consolidate around 75W during the early part of the period. There was considerable discrepancy among the medium range models on how deep/strong the trough will be by the end of the period. and Saturday A broad, weak anticyclone will linger in the Lake Superior region throughout the short-term portion of the forecast.
As a result temperatures are still only around 80 degrees, but with increasing sunshine the next few hours they should rebound to the mid 80s, a few degrees warmer on the southwest edge of the CWA.
340 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 High pressure in control of the Great Lakes today through the duration of the short-term period will allow for these very quiet weather conditions to continue. The high has been suppressing even much in the way of the diurnally-driven CU field for most of the U. Expect not much of a change for tomorrow's weather as upper ridging builds in. Ridging looks to dominate this weekend as a high pressure block over the Desert Southwest slowly progs northward.
Current temps have rebounded into the lower 80s for most spots this late Fri morning, from their earlier lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s. However, a broad upper trough in place over much of the Midwest/OH Valley states may provide for some minimal dynamic lift in addition to buoyant energy and translate into perhaps iso/sct showers/tstms later today. Models continue to bring a pretty amplified longwave trough axis and associated surface front southeast into the area late tonight into Saturday. With all the cloud cover and higher precipitation chances, highs in the lower to mid 80s look reasonable.
255 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021 Upper level ridge will continue to expand and lift north across the FA overnight and through Saturday as thicknesses increase.
Will keep some PoPs going through the day Saturday and on into Saturday evening, to cover the passage of the surface front, and for a lingering upper trough that will be sinking southward from the Great Lakes.
(This afternoon through Saturday night) Upper ridging is centered over Arizona and New Mexico and an upper trough extends from the Great Lakes southwestward to Oklahoma. The previously mentioned upper ridge will expand over Texas on Saturday. Temperatures on Saturday will be slightly cooler across most of the area.
300 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 High pressure along the Carolina Coast will start to weaken over the weekend as a slow-moving cold front approaches from the north and stalls over the area early this week. High pressure will continue to ridge into the area to a degree tomorrow as a decaying upper level trough pushes into the area from the northwest. Later in the afternoon, weak forcing from the upper level trough will increase convective activity over the coastal plain (and farther west), and have chance PoPs across those counties, while farther to the east conditions will become mostly dry.
For tonight, most models are suggesting that convection may be well west of the area, although the Highres FV3, RAP, and NAM still indicated some potential in northeast NE.
Mid level trough will also continue to slide southeast tonight and while overall forcing will not be as strong tonight, persistent warm advection and moisture transport will continue to interact with the above mentioned boundary.
MLCAPE values will be locally as high as 1700-2200 J/KG once again on Saturday, which could act in combination with the high PWAT airmass to result in localized wet downburst potential, but the synoptic scale pattern does not support organized severe convection. Lows tonight mainly in the lower 70s inland but mid to upper 7s closer to and along the immediate coast.
207 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021 Benign weather is expected this period as we remain under the influence of high pressure centered over the Great Lakes. It's a couple of degrees warmer than today, which makes sense as little in the way of airmass change is expected, which means we'll just be slowly warming things up on a daily basis.
125 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show low amplitude ridging over the Rockies into s central Canada and low amplitude troffing over the Upper Mississippi Valley and Plains. Ridging looks to dominate this weekend as a high pressure block over the Desert Southwest slowly progs northward.
Storms are expected to develop along the higher terrain of eastern Colorado and then slowly propagate to the south or perhaps south-southeast. Have the highest pops during the evening across Hamilton and Kearny counties to account for this anticipated storm evolution. For Saturday, a mid level ridge starts to amplify across the Central Rockies.
Upper level high near the four corners region beginning to strengthen today with the ridge axis extending north into Montana.
However, with the axis of a positively-tilted trough extending back into our CWA and some lingering instability in the area, we could still see a few stray diurnal showers and perhaps a thunderstorm during the late afternoon into early this evening. High temperatures by late this afternoon will top out 5-10 degrees below average, generally around 80 degrees to the low 80s.
237 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021 Some lingering rain showers in the Rolling Plains this afternoon associated with a slow-moving MCV will exit the forecast area leaving weak subsidence in it's wake as heights build slightly on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge centered over the Desert Southwest. Orographically-forced convection in the higher terrain of New Mexico will be more sparse today, and the light W-NW mid-level flow will be less conducive to carry any of the activity out into the plains this evening. The upper ridge should maintain it's sway over the area during the day Saturday with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the lower 90s on the Caprock, and mid to upper 90s in the Rolling Plains.
131 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 A cold front over the eastern Great Lakes will drift very slowly to the south tonight through the upcoming weekend as several weak waves of low pressure ride northeast along it.
326 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 A cold front approaches the area on Saturday with more numerous thunderstorms.
Will maintain a 15-20% probability for thunderstorms in central KS for late tonight into Saturday morning, although better chances for storms should be over the High Plains.
349 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 A cold front will slowly cross the area this evening before stalling to the south this weekend.
235 PM MDT Fri Jul 16 2021 Current surface map has an area of lower pressure over eastern Montana with a trough/dry line extending southward along the Wyoming/South Dakota border. On Saturday, expect to see another impulse round the upper ridge in the afternoon and evening. Initially, expect some high based showers/storms form over the hills and along the lee trough in the afternoon and evening.
Some activity may linger at TXK/ELD after sunset as an upper trough moves into the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley.
(This evening through Saturday) Afternoon water vapor imagery shows the center of the upper level ridge over Arizona and western New Mexico. The continued influence from the ridge has kept our area mainly dry although a few isolated showers moved across Haskell and Throckmorton counties this morning. Otherwise, the quiet conditions will continue tonight and into Saturday as the upper ridge nudges a little bit further east into west Texas. Temperatures tonight will again be on the mild side, with lows generally in the lower to mid 70s. An upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to strengthen over the Four Corners region this weekend, with the extension of the ridge extending east across West Texas. This will result in dry conditions, with slightly warmer temperatures, but still near normal for this time of year.
The outlook for the weekend remains hot, dry, and smoky under building high pressure.
1051 AM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021 Current temps have rebounded into the lower 80s for most spots this late Fri morning, from their earlier lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s. However, a broad upper trough in place over much of the Midwest/OH Valley states may provide for some minimal dynamic lift in addition to buoyant energy and translate into perhaps iso/sct showers/tstms later today. Models continue to bring a pretty amplified longwave trough axis and associated surface front southeast into the area late tonight into Saturday. With all the cloud cover and higher precipitation chances, highs in the lower to mid 80s look reasonable.
/issued 237 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021/ Some lingering rain showers in the Rolling Plains this afternoon associated with a slow-moving MCV will exit the forecast area leaving weak subsidence in its wake as heights build slightly on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge centered over the Desert Southwest. Orographically-forced convection in the higher terrain of New Mexico will be more sparse today, and the light W-NW mid- level flow will be less conducive to carry any of the activity out into the plains this evening. The upper ridge should maintain its sway over the area during the day Saturday with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the lower 90s on the Caprock, and mid to upper 90s in the Rolling Plains.
/Issued 331 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021/ The upper ridge over the western Atlantic and the southeast states persists through the night. The upper ridge begins to break down overnight as An upper trough deepens into the southeast states over the weekend. have left the highest pops across the northern third of the forecast area Saturday and Saturday night.
Upper level ridge will continue to expand and lift north across the FA overnight and through Saturday as thicknesses increase.
High pressure over NM weak, causing storm motions to be erratic and slow-moving, creating locally heavy rainfall in addition to gusty downburst winds. More of the same Saturday despite the upper high becoming centered over the 4 corners and strengthening a bit. The upper high continues to degrade this evening before strengthening and taking firmer shape overnight. As such, concentrated PoPs early along the high terrain with anticipation showers and thunderstorms would later migrate and/or initiate in these favored areas. Influence of the upper high will once again plague storm motion, causing erratic and slow movement. Given the high PWATs, locally heavy rainfall will be possible and a Flash Flood Watch may be warranted in future updates.
514 PM MDT Fri Jul 16 2021 Current surface map has an area of lower pressure over eastern Montana with a trough/dry line extending southward along the Wyoming/South Dakota border. On Saturday, expect to see another impulse round the upper ridge in the afternoon and evening. Initially, expect some high based showers/storms form over the hills and along the lee trough in the afternoon and evening.
The frontal boundary is expected to be stretched across central Ohio with the highest moisture (PWATs) across the south. Thunderstorms will struggle to deepens due to the lower instability and less heating, however, the abundant moisture will still be in place, especially across southern Ohio/northern Kentucky.
545 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021 High pressure at the surface will keep relatively cooler and more stable air in place tonight into Saturday.
The combination of these factors will keep milder overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Overall this activity will keep highs in the low 90s with heat indices just over 100 degrees, especially in areas that do not receive rainfall. Saturday night conditions will also be similar to tonight's, with dew points above the 70-degree mark areawide and wet soils from afternoon rainfall securing muggy conditions and mild lows in the low to mid 70s.
1053 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 A cold front will slowly cross the waters overnight before stalling to the south this weekend.
1034 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 Low to mid level ridging remains in place across the western north Atlantic with an extension west-southwest across north Florida. Aloft, water vapor imagery confirms an anticyclone over the eastern Gulf with a tropical upper trough east of the Bahamas. Guidance also suggests deeper moisture will be carried through the Bayside/Gulfside waters, hence higher coverage was mention Given the low coverage the slight chance pops will continue to work overnight. High pressure over the North Atlantic with a ridge extending over the Florida Peninsula will maintain moderate east breezes tonight.
Benign weather is expected this period as we remain under the influence of high pressure centered over the Great Lakes. It's a couple of degrees warmer than today, which makes sense as little in the way of airmass change is expected, which means we'll just be slowly warming things up on a daily basis.
A cold front will move to near the Missouri border Saturday afternoon.
Amplified pattern continues across the CONUS, with a strengthening ridge across the Rockies and a mean trough over the east. A cold front will continue to drop southeast, reaching the Ohio River by the start of the extended.
945 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 High pressure along the Carolina Coast will start to weaken over the weekend as a slow-moving cold front approaches from the north and stalls over the area early this week. High pressure continues to ridge in from offshore. High pressure will continue to ridge into the area to a degree tomorrow as a decaying upper level trough pushes into the area from the northwest. Later in the afternoon, weak forcing from the upper level trough will increase convective activity over the coastal plain (and farther west), and have chance PoPs across those counties, while farther to the east conditions will become mostly dry.
Current forecast has the highest POPs across northern most counties but if current trends continue these may need to be increased especially in the 09-15Z time frame. Mid level trough will also continue to slide southeast tonight and while overall forcing will not be as strong tonight, persistent warm advection and moisture transport will continue to interact with the above mentioned boundary.
629 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 High pressure along the Carolina Coast will start to weaken over the weekend as a slow-moving cold front approaches from the north and stalls over the area early this week. High pressure will continue to ridge into the area to a degree tomorrow as a decaying upper level trough pushes into the area from the northwest. Later in the afternoon, weak forcing from the upper level trough will increase convective activity over the coastal plain (and farther west), and have chance PoPs across those counties, while farther to the east conditions will become mostly dry.
958 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 Strong high pressure centered just off the Southeast coast will extend over the Carolinas into Saturday. A cold front and pre- frontal trough will approach from the northwest Saturday afternoon and evening.
Hennig (This afternoon through Saturday night) Upper ridging is centered over Arizona and New Mexico and an upper trough extends from the Great Lakes southwestward to Oklahoma. The previously mentioned upper ridge will expand over Texas on Saturday. Temperatures on Saturday will be slightly cooler across most of the area.
/issued 257 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021/ Skies are partly cloudy across the Mid-South with temperatures in the lower 70s to upper 80s. Temperatures will remain on the warm side with lows Saturday morning in the lower 70s. A cold front will be approaching the region from the north on Saturday. Temperatures will be cooler on Saturday with the clouds and rain in the area with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Thunderstorms will continue into Saturday night as the cold front moves into northern sections of the region.
Temperatures are steadily falling with a couple spots running a degree cooler from earlier rain.
(Today through Sunday afternoon) A subtropical ridge located over NM is set to move over the Four Corners this afternoon. Convection will stay confined to the western portions of the CWA, southeast NM and the higher terrain of West Texas. The subtropical ridge will continue northward reducing mid lvl heights over the region. Therefore, Sun temps are likely to be a degree or two cooler.
The upper high continues to degrade this evening before strengthening and taking firmer shape overnight. As such, concentrated PoPs early along the high terrain with anticipation showers and thunderstorms would later migrate and/or initiate in these favored areas. Influence of the upper high will once again plague storm motion, causing erratic and slow movement. Given the high PWATs, locally heavy rainfall will be possible and a Flash Flood Watch may be warranted in future updates.
H5 trough axis will be located over the area today, and will help provide increased convective coverage by this afternoon and certainly into the evening.
241 AM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021 The atmosphere continues to moisten especially over Central/South FL with broad weak ridging over the region.
1139 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021 A cold front will stall in southern Missouri tonight.