Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
At the surface, low pressure was located in western KS with a warm front extending into north central KS. Storm chances continue into tonight north of the warm front on the nose of the low level jet, with the better focus for these storms to our east. The weather dries out tonight behind a cold front and Saturday will feature dry, but breezy conditions with wind gusts 25-30 mph as mixing deepens behind an upper trough crossing the northern/central Plains.
The storms are expected to be rooted in the layer between 1 and 2 km and may briefly extend southward into portions of south central Kansas where pops were increased slightly although the higher probabilities are expected to remain north of our forecast area. A cold front will usher in more seasonable air across the region on Sat and the better chances for showers and storms are expected to remain south and east of the area along the frontal boundary during the afternoon hours which is expected to be south and east away from the area.
Despite this, temperatures have been cooler than expected in the 30s and low 40s. These scattered showers/sprinkles will remain over western MN for the rest of the day, then expand in coverage and intensity overnight as a cold front pushes into central MN. As the cold front continues southeast Saturday, the two areas of rain will converge across eastern MN and WI. ) The moisture will move out late Saturday and high pressure building in immediately it will clear out the stratus as well.
335 PM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Latest sfc analysis shows our old boundary drifting back nwd as a warm front, currently stretch over the nrn 1/2 of the forecast area (roughly Opelousas to DeQuincey to Beaumont). Water vapor imagery shows ridging in place over the sern CONUS while a deepening trof is noted over the wrn CONUS. As a series of disturbances round and further dig the approaching trof over the swrn CONUS, mid/upper-level lift will begin overspreading the region during the day tomorrow. This feature will also help push our next cold front into the Red River Valley. A weak sfc convergence boundary/pre-frontal trof is noted developing to our north which could help induce a few showers/storms tomorrow afternoon over mainly our far nrn zones.
318 PM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021 With such a fast moving low pressure system (already progressing east of Lake Ontario), expect surface ridging to build in quickly and bring clearing skies (especially after midnight) and light winds tonight.
245 PM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Mean layer analyses and water vapor imagery highlight a sharp and deep mean layer ridge complex across the Western Caribbean. High pressure centered near Bermuda supports moderate east to southeast breezes across the Florida Keys. Temperatures are in the 80s with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. The mean layer ridge will control the weather for the next several days, moving very little and lending support to the Bermuda High.
213 PM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Warm, dry, and windy conditions persist today as high pressure builds into the area.
For tonight, an upper trough will traverse the region in association with a strong H5 low moving across northern Manitoba. This will bring down a surge of cooler air through the overnight hours, with precipitation chances for portions of the area.
As this storm moves north and east the near storm environment should support some increasing moisture and convergence near the low. As the low moves eastward a cold front will sweep across western Kansas around midnight and cold air advection will increase towardsmorning. Saturday we should have a tightening pressure gradient through the day and a longwave trough entering the region towards afternoon.
Low pressure over the lower Great Lakes this morning will bring a period of low clouds to much of the area for a time today before it departs to the northeast. This, along with the approaching upper trough, will pull moisture back north, with showers likely and possibly thunderstorms moving in from the south on Saturday.
236 PM MDT Fri Mar 26 2021 20z surface analysis had a cold front from western MN into southern WY. Water vapour had mean trough from central SK into the four corners area. Tonight, upper trough slowly shifts east as main lift exits the CWA late. Forecast soundings show mainly snow over the higher elevations and mix trending toward mostly snow tonight. Accumulations on the plains will be minimum with a few inches of snow possible over the highest elevations of the Black Hills.
(Tonight through Saturday) An upper trough will shift southeast across the Four Corners area early tonight, and then east across New Mexico to near the TX/NM border by late Saturday afternoon. Our area will have southwest flow aloft out ahead of this trough. Temperatures will be milder tonight, with lows expected to be mostly in the lower to mid 50s. (Saturday night through next Friday) By late Saturday night, an upper-level trough and surface cold front will move into west Texas.
The SPC continues are slight risk for ares mainly in S AR in thei day two for hail and eventually some damaging winds as the cold front pushes back into the warm air with a line developing and a QLCS threat overnight.
Temperatures will gradual warm over the weekend as the upper level ridge amplifies across the Pacific Northwest.
Updated winds and sky cover to keep in line with the cold front pushing through the region. There is a cold front trying to move into Corson county.
Have issued a Rip Current Statement through 7 PM CDT to cover the High Risk for Rip Currents today, and one may be needed tomorrow as well if trends hold. The poor aviation conditions near the coast is associated with a warm front advancing northward across the Rio Grande Valley this morning. Clouds are expected to increase around sunrise as a warm front advances northward. Low pressure developing across the Texas Panhandle will support a steady onshore flow and increasing lower level moisture through the period. Warm to very warm conditions are expected today with highs ranging from the 70s along the beaches, mid to upper 80s inland and the low to mid 90s across the west under mostly sunny skies. Warmer temperatures continue into Saturday with southwest flow aloft.
305 PM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Although scattered radar echoes have appeared across parts of southeast SD for much of the day, the low level dry layer has been slow to erode with little rain being observed at the surface. However, much stronger mixing and steep low level lapse rates introducing weak instability combined with ascent from an approaching longwave upper trough bring potential for an additional round of scattered showers and isolated thunder, or at least increased cloud cover, for Saturday afternoon. Behind the upper trough axis passage, we'll see a period of gusty northwest winds up to 25 mph Saturday afternoon and early evening. Expect temperatures to fall near to below freezing Saturday night.
This front will lift north as warm front tonight, reaching the I-40 corridor by 4AM. A secondary warm front, the leading edge of tropical maritime air, should reach central MS by 4AM and surge north through the I-40 corridor by noon Saturday. As it does, the surface warm front will become more diffuse over northwest TN and northeast AR, and the 925mb jet should weaken considerably from its 40 knot peak earlier Saturday morning. As mentioned above, the warm front will become more diffuse and not likely much of a factor Saturday afternoon.
Still anticipate snow showers moving through the higher terrain and foothills with mainly snow above 6000 ft and rain with a possible rain and snow mix for some lower elevations areas later this evening. An upper trough is progged to move slowly eastward across Colorado today and tonight. The trough axis will be over the eastern CWA by 12Z Saturday morning. The best energy from the trough should be over the forecast area today, however it is not very strong. Will keep the highest pops going, "likely"s, in the mountains this afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be cooler than normals for highs today, about 3-5 C cooler than yesterday's readings. We'll start off on the chilly side Saturday with a few lingering light snow showers in the high country.
125 PM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Deep low pressure will bring very windy conditions today, while showers and thunderstorms move east. Winds will subside later today as cooler and drier air settles into the region with high pressure.
A wintry mix from snow and some freezing rain to just rain will occur with an area of low pressure tonight into Saturday.
The highest potential for heavy rainfall amounts looks to be focused over west Kentucky, where some training could lead to some localized flooding issues.
High pressure out of the Plains states is also building into much of the region following the passage of the cold front last night. The theta-E ridge that pushes south of us today will pivot back northward rapidly tonight through the lower MS and into the TN valleys. The surface warm front should lift north during the morning, and shift these elevated thunderstorms further north into TN. This will be in advance of an upper trough axis dropping southeast through the upper Midwest into the southern Plains.
For later today and tonight, the warm front appears to less sharp and farther southeast, keeping the bulk of the MLCAPE across western and southern locations.
Fire weather remains a concern this afternoon primarily along and west of Highway 75, where the highest wind speeds are expected to be.
334 PM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Winds will slacken tonight as brief high pressure moves across the northeast. A tight pressure gradient behind a strong low pressure system will keep strong winds over the region through the evening hours. A few gusts above 60 mph will be possible over the high terrain of the Central Southern Tier. As high pressure drifts toward the region overnight, winds will slacken.
155 PM PDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Seasonal temperatures are likely over the forecast area today as upper-level high pressure ridging begins to move inland. A warming trend is forecast to occur this weekend as the ridge builds. EPAC ridge will build in over the area and remain nearly stationary through the weekend with dry conditions and above normal temperatures.
Speeds will drop off some mid to late evening, with a shift to a more southwesterly direction mid morning tomorrow in advance of a cold front. Fire weather remains a concern this afternoon primarily along and west of Highway 75, where the highest wind speeds are expected to be.
This should result in cooler temperatures across western parts of the area, as the wind will be lighter for a longer duration. The cold front will continue to move south and east on Saturday ahead of a positively tilted trough to our west. The low level flow will be rather weak, but stronger mid and upper flow may result in a few strong to severe storms across south central and southeast Oklahoma.
High pressure is expected to bring warmer and drier conditions the upcoming weekend. An upper trough remains elongated from southwest to northeast over Utah this morning. A shallow cold front has made it through Cedar City and extends into the Uinta Basin. Next, behind the cold front, the northerly flow is allowing precipitation to become more orographically forced along the I-15 corridor from mainly central through southwest Utah. The low/mid-level circulation center in central Utah is responsible for the third area of more focused precipitation over and around Scofield. Precipitation will remain largely confined to the mountains and south/east as drier and more stable conditions will exist across northwest Utah behind the trough axis. High pressure will build into the area for the weekend, with temperatures trending warmer.
Seasonable temperatures through the weekend, then warmer for the start of the upcoming work week. But the lower amplitude will keep Gulf moisture mainly south of the area, so precipitation totals will likely be AOB normal for the period.
The upper level trough and cold pool aloft is creating some midlevel instability which is borne out with the cellular nature of the clouds seen on visible satellite imagery. By daybreak tomorrow, height rises indicate high pressure moving in as the upper level trough will have shifted east. Anticyclonic flow around the high will keep winds from the north keeping daytime highs a bit cooler than normal.
This should allow for a gradual scattering out of the low cloud from the southwest starting late this afternoon, and continuing tonight, although it may not be until the early morning hours of Saturday before the clearing makes it into the far northern zones. Appears Saturday will remain dry for the most part, with the surface and upper ridge holding. By Saturday night, the next upper trough and cold front are progged to move into the area, probably entering the northwest zones around 280300Z or so. Remnant convection along the cold front may reach the west central or northwest zones by the late evening hours, but may be weakening with a loss of surface based instability.
The higher terrain could pick up to 1 to 5 inches of snow across the divide and higher foothills above 6000 ft where lower elevations areas will see no accumulation. By early Saturday morning models have the low dipping south into the desert southwest with northwest flow dominating the synoptic pattern into Saturday. Ceilings will gradually lessen through the day with some increasing WAA that will help to bring temperatures into the lower 50s across the plains and 30s to 40s in the mountains on Saturday.
236 PM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Still deepening low pressure center that brought our severe weather last evening will continue rushing northeast well away from the region. A small bubble high pressure will nose into the region this afternoon and provide a brief dry respite as we close out the work week. These parameters combined with the cold front as the lifting mechanism give enough to warrant the Day 2 Slight Risk for the western half of the CWA.
243 PM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Weak surface ridging will continue to bring light winds and dry conditions this afternoon and evening, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures should rise a few more degrees by late afternoon, with most places topping out in the upper 40s to near 50, although far north-central Wisconsin may struggle to reach the lower 40s under an area of slowly eroding stratus clouds. Behind this, a larger upper level trough approaching from the west will set off additional shower chances for the afternoon into the evening.
An upper trough swinging across AZ today will move into NM Saturday before passing over the area that night.
Water temperatures are in the mid 70s and with air temperatures in the low 90s I would bet a pretty good seabreeze penetration.
These backed low level winds, along with a strengthening and somewhat veered low level jet will provide a very favorable wind profile to max out shear, especially in the lower levels. That being said, should there be some unresolvable pockets of higher instability a strong storm or two will be possible along the diffuse warm frontal zone, which will set up just north of I-70. A bit of unfortunate news for Saturday, as models have appeared to speed up the cold front a touch, which will have it moving through a majority of the forecast area prior to peak heating. As the cold front interacts with a slightly juicier atmosphere across central Missouri a few showers will form, but the majority of the forecast area will be dry saturday.
1256 PM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Windy conditions are expected today in the wake of a cold front.
As this storm moves north and east the near storm environment should support some increasing moisture and convergence near the low. As the low moves eastward a cold front will sweep across western Kansas around midnight and cold air advection will increase towards morning. Saturday we should have a tightening pressure gradient through the day and a longwave trough entering the region towards afternoon.
358 PM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Winds will slacken tonight as brief high pressure moves across the northeast. A tight pressure gradient behind a strong low pressure system will keep strong winds over the region through the evening hours. A few gusts above 60 mph will be possible over the high terrain of the Central Southern Tier. As high pressure drifts toward the region overnight, winds will slacken.
Despite some clearing in the afternoon, high temperatures will struggle to rise warmer than the mid 50s. High pressure will keep skies clear through Saturday night allowing temperatures to drop into the upper 20s to low 30s.
1254 PM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Low pressure was moving through IN with weak high pressure building in over our area. For today, will continue to see that weak ridge of high pressure build in with a mix of sun and clouds. Otherwise, plan on high temperature readings in the mid-40s across north central WI to the lower and mid-50s elsewhere. Look for lows tonight in the lower 30s to lower 40s, highs Saturday in the mid-40s to mid-50s, and lows Saturday night in the 20s/30s.
156 PM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Quiet tonight ahead of the next cold front which is currently into far NW KS. Current easterly flow along the western Gulf Coast and forecast veering low level winds ahead of the front support shallow moisture return across much of E OK and into the higher terrain of NW AR.
309 PM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Current surface analysis shows a cold front pushing through the forecast area.
Previous discussion: Cooler temperatures are expected today behind the cold front that moved through the region yesterday.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Afternoon composite analysis reveals larger scale low amplitude ridging building through the SE states and into the western Great Lakes. Subsidence and drier air have been steadily building into the region this afternoon and has managed to open up some holes in the low cloud cover, particularly across north-central Lower Michigan, although there remains a fair amount of shallow lake induced/reinforced stratocu streaming off Lakes Michigan and Superior.
343 PM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021 The cold front that aided in last night's severe weather has essentially stalled across central GA, stretching roughly from Columbus to Macon to Warrenton. The aforementioned stationary front will lift northward tomorrow as a warm front, fueling moisture return and WAA across much of the CWA. Coupled with progged bulk shear of 40-50 kts overlying the warm front, organized storms capable of damaging winds and hail will be a concern.
The high risk of Rip Currents continue until 00z Saturday.
616 PM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021 (Tonight through Saturday) An upper trough will shift southeast across the Four Corners area early tonight, and then east across New Mexico to near the TX/NM border by late Saturday afternoon. Our area will have southwest flow aloft out ahead of this trough. Temperatures will be milder tonight, with lows expected to be mostly in the lower to mid 50s. (Saturday night through next Friday) By late Saturday night, an upper-level trough and surface cold front will move into west Texas.
Current surface analysis shows a cold front pushing through the forecast area.
Highs won't be much warmer than today, however, as temperatures aloft don't show much warming until late in the day. The higher terrain could pick up to 1 to 5 inches of snow across the divide and higher foothills above 6000 ft where lower elevations areas will see no accumulation. By early Saturday morning models have the low dipping south into the desert southwest with northwest flow dominating the synoptic pattern into Saturday. Ceilings will gradually lessen through the day with some increasing WAA that will help to bring temperatures into the lower 50s across the plains and 30s to 40s in the mountains on Saturday.
Light SE winds and clear/mostly clear skies will prevail, with low temps trending to the lower/mid 50s at most locations. Surface cold front on track to push through eastern OK and northwest AR mid to late afternoon.
559 PM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Weak surface ridging will continue to bring light winds and dry conditions this afternoon and evening, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures should rise a few more degrees by late afternoon, with most places topping out in the upper 40s to near 50, although far north-central Wisconsin may struggle to reach the lower 40s under an area of slowly eroding stratus clouds. Behind this, a larger upper level trough approaching from the west will set off additional shower chances for the afternoon into the evening.
Cloud cover continues to spread northward in concert with a warm front. /issued 335 PM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021/ Latest sfc analysis shows our old boundary drifting back nwd as a warm front, currently stretch over the nrn 1/2 of the forecast area (roughly Opelousas to Dequincy to Beaumont). Water vapor imagery shows ridging in place over the sern CONUS while a deepening trof is noted over the wrn CONUS. As a series of disturbances round and further dig the approaching trof over the swrn CONUS, mid/upper-level lift will begin overspreading the region during the day tomorrow. This feature will also help push our next cold front into the Red River Valley. A weak sfc convergence boundary/pre-frontal trof is noted developing to our north which could help induce a few showers/storms tomorrow afternoon over mainly our far nrn zones.
High pressure remains centered over the western Atlantic with associated ridge axis across the central/south- central peninsula. A mid-upper-level ridge is present across the southern peninsula/FL Straits. The forecast remains persistent as high pressure continues to dominate the region. We'll see mostly sunny skies as a ridge remains centered over southern Florida. It's likely that we'll once again approach record highs with the warmest temperatures across inland locations and slightly cooler along the coast - thanks to the afternoon seabreeze. Favorable boating conditions are expected as high pressure influences the region.
436 PM MDT Fri Mar 26 2021 20z surface analysis had a cold front from western MN into southern WY. Water vapour had mean trough from central SK into the four corners area. Tonight, upper trough slowly shifts east as main lift exits the CWA late. Forecast soundings show mainly snow over the higher elevations and mix trending toward mostly snow tonight. Accumulations on the plains will be minimum with a few inches of snow possible over the highest elevations of the Black Hills.
925 PM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Winds will slacken tonight as brief high pressure moves across the northeast. As high pressure drifts toward the region overnight, winds will slacken.
A weak area of high pressure will build into the eastern Great Lakes Saturday with dry weather and light winds.
750 PM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Winds will slacken tonight as brief high pressure moves across the northeast. A tight pressure gradient behind a strong low pressure system will keep strong winds over the region through the evening hours. As high pressure drifts toward the region overnight, winds will slacken.
A cold front is expected to move through the early mornings hours with north winds through the day tomorrow.
539 PM MDT Fri Mar 26 2021 An active pattern underway as a trough transitions through the region as we speak. The cold front associated with this trough is currently draped along the Laramie Range, with light snow showers across southeast Wyoming, and a rain-snow mix falling across the west Nebraska Panhandle. Under the heaviest bands, snow has fallen even as temperatures remain above freezing.