Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
We are forecasting a record low max temperature at Norfolk today, but as expected, temperatures at both Lincoln and Omaha were 1 degree too warm to beat the low max record at these locations. Arctic high pressure continues to build across the region tonight.
Although last night's arctic cold front has pushed into southern Idaho, a rather tight surface pressure gradient remains across western Montana, resulting in some rather brisk wind chill readings this morning in Kalispell and Missoula.
This is expected to lead to very chilly temperatures overnight with a fresh snowpack as well as strong high pressure pushing in. Temperatures are forecast to hit the low to upper single digits with the lake keeping temperatures along the shoreline a tad bit warmer.
This is expected to lead to very chilly temperatures overnight with a fresh snowpack as well as strong high pressure pushing in. Temperatures are forecast to hit the low to upper single digits with the lake keeping temperatures along the shoreline a tad bit warmer. High pressure will build in during the day Monday this should gradually shift the snow south.
No weather impacts in the short term as upper ridging builds in over the Pacific Coast. Expect to see cooler temperatures today with some slight warming tomorrow.
Winds will increase from the southwest today, with a shift to the northwest and north late with the passage of the cold front.
339 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2019 The center of surface arctic high pressure will slide across southwestern North Dakota through the day, promoting decreasing clouds, very cold temperatures, and a favorable setup for light lake effect snow southeast of Lake Sakakawea through at least the early afternoon. Highs will struggle to make it out of the lower to mid teens this afternoon as a broad upper level ridge starts to deamplify across the western US and slowly move towards the Northern Plains.
854 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 High pressure continues to ridge over the area producing pleasant weather with sunny skies and mild temperatures this morning. Temperatures will steadily warm up through the day topping out in the low to mid 80's. Easterly winds in the 10-15 knot range and seas 2 feet or less will persist through Tuesday as high pressure ridges across the Florida peninsula and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A cold front will move southeast through the waters Tuesday and Tuesday night, with increased rain chances and winds turning to northerly and northeasterly behind the front.
Expect MVFR to IFR cigs to develop this morning as a strong arctic cold front sweeps through the region. Light freezing rain could develop this morning for the northeast OK sites, with a light wintry mix working farther south and east through the day before tapering off late in the day. /Issued 442 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2019/ Early morning surface analysis places strong cold front just south and east of Tulsa, from Jay to Porter to Shawnee. It looks like surface freezing line may not arrive in Tulsa til around mid day which means most precipitation south of a line from Tulsa to Bentonville will be all rain this morning.
/issued 533 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2019/ Ceilings have dropped to MVFR range at all three TAF sites behind a strong cold front and will remain in the MVFR category most of the morning. The other issue with this cold front will be the low stratus and resulting precipitation. Also, temperatures may drop quick enough for some light freezing drizzle in the southwestern Texas Panhandle before shutting down this afternoon. Surface lee troughing will develop in response to a weak short wave moving across the Intermountain West shifting surface winds back to the southwest.
421 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2019 The cold front has through the northwestern half of Oklahoma by 3AM, still set to clear the state before noon. There will be a small window where some drizzle or light rain falls with surface temperatures below freezing over northern and possibly central Oklahoma this morning. By late afternoon, there only remains a slight chance for light freezing drizzle over southeastern Oklahoma before the much drier air moves across that area.
335 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2019 Current observations show the cold front is approaching Lubbock and will be entering our CWA within the next few hours. The biggest change in the models has been a more southerly track to an upper level low near Baja Mexico. This will cause the greatest precipitation chances and QPF amounts to be associated with the frontal passage today, and not with lift from the low tonight. That means most of the precipitation will fall as rain today with lighter amounts of freezing rain and sleet expected overnight, mainly in the Big Bend. Any precip that falls after surface temps drop below freezing will be either freezing rain, or less likely, sleet.
404 AM MST Mon Nov 11 2019 The freezing drizzle from late last night has transitioned over light snow overnight and has become widespread along the Front Range and northeast plains. The mostly clear skies should allow for a cold night across the plains with temps falling into the low lower to mid teens. Colorado will quickly rebound on Tuesday away from Winter, and back towards a dry and much warmer pattern.
An anomalously cold trough digging into the central US is brining increased north to northeast flow to NorCal. The strongest winds will be over wind prone ridgetops and canyons into the early afternoon. High clouds are starting to push into the northern part of the CWA and we will continue to see high clouds today across the area as a short wave trough passes to our north. High cloudiness will continue on Tuesday as the short wave trough pushes east through the PacNW.
A ridge of high pressure will remain over California for the next few days with above normal temperatures and dry conditions with hazy skies in the San Joaquin Valley.
449 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2019 (Today and Tonight) A strong cold front will move rapidly south across West Central Texas this morning, bringing much colder temperatures and strong north winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph through this evening. Also, light winter precipitation, freezing rain and sleet, is possible across the southern half of the area mainly late this evening and a few hours after midnight. Lows will be in the lower to mid 20s.
High pressure weakens by mid-week leading to increased cloud cover and cooler daytime temperatures for the end of week.
310 AM MST Mon Nov 11 2019 High pressure will return to area beginning this afternoon, and result in a warming trend through midweek.
Highs in the low 20s in the valley and E ND and teens in the MN pines are expected.
Further west, temperatures will gradually increase after midnight with some areas warming to near freezing by sunrise along and just east of the Laramie Range.
Areas of light snow, sleet and freezing drizzle continues across portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. The highest snow/sleet accumulations are still expected across far northwest Arkansas in the higher terrain, where up to an inch is possible before precip shifts east early this evening.
An upper level ridge centered off the coast has begun to shift inland which will strengthen the subsidence inversion impacting the forecast area into Tuesday. This will make the max temperature forecast tricky as areas that do not mix out will remain cooler. WWinds will remain fairly light but will see an increase of southerly winds late today and overnight over the higher terrain and especially in the southern Grande Ronde Valley.
Synoptically-driven snow bands have departed the forecast area with an area of N-to-S oriented HCR CU noted ahead of the H700-500 trough axis just entering north-central Kansas. The center of the high passes south of the forecast area with the ridge axis bifurcating the forecast area at sunrise. Return flow sets in on the backside of the ridge on Tuesday afternoon under clear skies, but temperatures will be slow to respond and highs will still linger in the 30s.
The latest surface analysis shows the cold front just about reaching Paducah this hour. The arrival of a strong cold front during this taf period will bring rain, transitioning to light ice pellets/snow along with gusty winds.
Lows are expected to fall into the low teens area wide.
The latest surface analysis shows the cold front just about reaching Paducah this hour. Increasing sfc pressure gradient influences 11/18Z onward per passage of sfc cold front will support gusts to 25kt at times as winds veer NW/N behind frontal passage.
Snow summary and Rest of Today Snow reports this morning have largely come in in the 1 to 2 inch range, with the highest totals north of Interstate 80. Tonight Arctic high pressure continues to build across the region tonight.
341 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 Water vapor imagery highlights a stalled mid-upper level low near the Baja Peninsula, cutoff from the polar energy diving south through the Front Range of the Rockies. Mean-layer ridging stretches east from Central America to the western North Atlantic.
1019 AM PST Mon Nov 11 2019 A cold front will usher in drier and cooler air under breezy northerly winds tonight and Monday.
High pressure also slated to become the main weather feature by mid week, with dry and quiet conditions expected into the weekend.
1019 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 High pressure centered over Bermuda stretches west to the northern Gulf Coast.
Widespread MVFR ceilings behind a cold front will continue through this evening. /issued 335 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2019/ Current observations show the cold front is approaching Lubbock and will be entering our CWA within the next few hours. The biggest change in the models has been a more southerly track to an upper level low near Baja Mexico. This will cause the greatest precipitation chances and QPF amounts to be associated with the frontal passage today, and not with lift from the low tonight. That means most of the precipitation will fall as rain today with lighter amounts of freezing rain and sleet expected overnight, mainly in the Big Bend. Any precip that falls after surface temps drop below freezing will be either freezing rain, or less likely, sleet.
A long wave ridge off the coast will move onshore tonight. A short wave moving up the back side of the ridge will push a surface front onshore Tuesday.
158 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019 Light snow ended behind a departing upper trough axis this morning. The airmass moderates (west/east) heading into Tuesday in rising heights aloft behind the departing upper trough. The gusty winds and low RH in the low/mid 20th percentile in our southern zones will need to be monitored for near critical fire weather conditions.
Until the deeper colder air aloft arrives, thermal profiles within the saturated airmass will support a liquid or a mixed precip type, especially where temperatures drop below freezing by sunrise across portions of south central Kansas and the Flint Hills. The potential for freezing drizzle or very light freezing rain will expand across southeast Kansas later in the morning, before ending as a brief period of light snow or flurries by early afternoon. The core of the Arctic high pressure will drift across the area tonight with clear skies and light winds providing ideal radiational cooling with lows near record levels over central Kansas.
104 PM MST Mon Nov 11 2019 An upper ridge remains over the Western U. Tuesday, the ridge will nose eastward with an upper trough coming ashore over the Pacific Northwest. Winds will become southwesterly overnight, allowing for some warmer air to filter into the area Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to be much warmer, with highs ranging from the upper 40s to the mid-50s.
828 AM MST Mon Nov 11 2019 A combination of much cooler overnight temperatures and widespread snow on the ground will result in cooler temperatures across the area today, so lowered todays high temperatures. Highs in Livingston are expected to be near 40 degrees, around freezing in Billings, and only teens in Baker. Upper level ridging will be moving into the region, bringing about drier conditions.
TFJ High pressure has moved into NE Montana overnight with bitter cold airmass. The high moves to the east today and while there will be warm air advection, a bitter cold start along with snow cover will keep temperatures very cold for mid November with highs only in the teens in most areas and 20s in the southwest. While temperatures on Tuesday will be much warmer today, snow cover and low level inversions will limit highs to the 30s in most areas.
Afternoon high temps will return to the low 80s this afternoon. (previous) Generally favorable boating conditions for Veterans Day as ridge of high pressure remains the dominant weather feature.
/issued 854 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2019/ High pressure continues to ridge over the area producing pleasant weather with sunny skies and mild temperatures this morning. Temperatures will steadily warm up through the day topping out in the low to mid 80's. Easterly winds in the 10-15 knot range and seas 2 feet or less will persist through Tuesday as high pressure ridges across the Florida peninsula and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A cold front will move southeast through the waters Tuesday and Tuesday night, with increased rain chances and winds turning to northerly and northeasterly behind the front.
221 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 A predominant zonal flow continues today and early Tuesday keeping seasonal temperatures and rain-free conditions over the area before the next significant trough approaches the eastern U.
Many locations have light freezing drizzle or miss now, with cold enough air aloft (near the top of mixed layer) moving in to support some fine snow flakes. Given the thermal structure aloft, even when cold enough air aloft for snow moves in, low level saturation will still support freezing drizzle so we went with that for ptype at all sites. /issued 421 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2019/ The cold front has through the northwestern half of Oklahoma by 3AM, still set to clear the state before noon. There will be a small window where some drizzle or light rain falls with surface temperatures below freezing over northern and possibly central Oklahoma this morning. By late afternoon, there only remains a slight chance for light freezing drizzle over southeastern Oklahoma before the much drier air moves across that area.
High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature over Utah and southwest Wyoming for much of the week. A broad ridge continues to be centered off the California coast this morning. On the front end of the ridge, a weak disturbance brought a mostly dry front across Utah and southwest Wyoming overnight. As a result, maxes today will be running 5-10F cooler than what was observed yesterday, right around seasonal normals. High pressure will build back over the forecast area to start the week, resulting in a steady warming trend through midweek.
These mechanisms, in combination with weakening low to mid level flow as the ridge axis shifts over the region, will bring an end to the lake effect snow ongoing over the southeast side of Lake of the Woods. Winds will shift to the south by mid morning and begin advecting warmer air into the region through the day Tuesday.
Northwest flow aloft will weaken today as the upper ridge rebuilds over the area. The upper ridge will rebuild over the inland NW late today into Tuesday.
225 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019 The center of surface arctic high pressure was over the western Dakotas this afternoon. The high center will slide southeast into the central plains tonight, and our surface winds will become light. Our low temperatures tonight could occur this evening or just after midnight, then begin rising towards daybreak as southerly winds begin to mix the lower atmosphere. On Tuesday, we can expect fairly decent warm advection behind a warm front, allowing temperatures to rise into the 20s over north central ND and the James River Basin.
Northerly winds will be channeled down the lower Colorado River Valley today and Tuesday. Both the lake wind advisory and red flag warning will be going into effect at 10 am and continue to look reasonable, but will be on the low end for winds.
Lows are expected to be in the low teens to single digits.
Recent snow cover will tend to limit the extent of the warming, so will keep the forecast temps cooler than the guidance numbers.
Northerly winds diminish into the evening hours down the lower Colorado River Valley.
Temperatures will drop to the lower to mid 60s. A cold front will approach the local area late Tue, bringing a few showers with no major impacts at least through the end of this TAF period. As a high pressure moves away from the local waters, light to gentle breezes will turn from the south tonight to southwest by early morning.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer tonight with most of us in the low to mid 60's. /issued 221 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2019/ A predominant zonal flow continues today and early Tuesday keeping seasonal temperatures and rain-free conditions over the area before the next significant trough approaches the eastern U.
Dry weather will continue through the week as a strong ridge offshore blocks storms from reaching the North Coast. The chance for rain late this week continues to steadily fade with each new run of the global models, as is to be expected in a pattern dominated by a long wave blocking ridge.
High pressure will be centered over the middle of the country this evening, bringing the coldest air of the season so far to the area. The high will gradually slide southeast of the region late tonight, with southerly WAA developing. This warmer flow will continue through the day Tuesday, before a frontal boundary approaches Tuesday night and tracks across all but the far eastern part of the CWA. Highs on Tuesday will range from the mid 20s northeast to the lower 40s southwest, with lows Tuesday night in the 20s.
642 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019 Arctic high pressure will move south of Nebraska tonight leading to lowest temperatures before or around midnight. The temperature forecast Tuesday uses the cooler deterministic model blend forecast for highs in the 30s, 40s and near 50. This is several degrees cooler than the blended guidance and several more degrees cooler than the bias corrected guidance blend.
Lower cloud layer was just clearing KLBB, and the high cloud deck will thin and edge southeast later in the evening leaving clear skies. Lows are expected to fall into the low teens area wide.
High pressure weakens by mid-week leading to increased cloud cover and cooler daytime temperatures for the end of week. Little change in our day-to-day weather continues as an upper level ridge remains positioned across the western U. We will also maintain a prolonged period of high clouds across the region as upper level moisture from a low north of Hawaii streams across the periphery of ridge across through the west coast.
606 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019 Clear skies this evening with the arctic high pressure departing the region. This will allow the evening temperatures to fall initially, followed by some non-diurnal temperature trends later tonight as strong warm advection begins in return flow around the high. The center of surface arctic high pressure was over the western Dakotas this afternoon. The high center will slide southeast into the central plains tonight, and our surface winds will become light. Our low temperatures tonight could occur this evening or just after midnight, then begin rising towards daybreak as southerly winds begin to mix the lower atmosphere. On Tuesday, we can expect fairly decent warm advection behind a warm front, allowing temperatures to rise into the 20s over north central ND and the James River Basin.
413 PM MST Mon Nov 11 2019 GOES-17 upper level water vapor imagery highlights last night's trough digging east and south impacting the northern Plains and the Great Lakes. Westerly winds and strong downsloping will quickly increase temperatures starting early tomorrow morning making for a much warmer day.
The dry air in the lower levels has led to a lot of virga, but when the snow does reach the ground it can be briefly intense. Given the low dew points and an already very cold start, sided toward the colder side of the envelope, but if winds decouple there could be some areas that get several degrees colder still - especially across southern MN where there remains a decent snowpack. Winds will shift southerly Tuesday, but decent warm air advection will wait until Tuesday night to reach the area with the flow initially coming from the high.
/issued 221 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2019/ A predominant zonal flow continues today and early Tuesday keeping seasonal temperatures and rain-free conditions over the area before the next significant trough approaches the eastern U.
Cold front pushing through the Mid State now, approaching CSV in the next hour or so.
252 PM MST Mon Nov 11 2019 A flat upper level ridge will build across the Central Rockies through Tuesday. Most of Denver should reach 60F or more, with slightly cooler readings away from the foothills with less downslope component. Potential we could see somewhat warmer readings as 700mb temps warm to +5C, and the liquid content of this morning's snow was rather meager.
303 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019 If you have been outside since this morning, you have felt the cold front and strong winds. There is a pronounced warm nose about 2 km aloft so the main precip types look to be freezing rain with possibly some sleet. It is possible to see a light glaze of icing on elevated surfaces as well as bridges and overpasses south of I-10.
529 PM MST Mon Nov 11 2019 Valley stratus and recent snowfall kept high temperatures cooler than forecast along the divide and in the Missoula, Bitterroot, Mission, and Flathead valleys earlier today.
High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature over Utah and southwest Wyoming for much of the week.
252 PM MST Mon Nov 11 2019 GOES-17 upper level water vapor imagery highlights last night's trough digging east and south impacting the northern Plains and the Great Lakes. Westerly winds and strong downsloping will quickly increase temperatures starting early tomorrow morning making for a much warmer day.
406 PM MST Mon Nov 11 2019 The trough has swung through the Rockies and any lingering moisture is being replaced by much drier air. The question is how thick will the high cloud cover be that is spilling over the ridge upstream of us. The next system to plow over the top of the Western Ridge makes into into the northern Rockies tomorrow night.
317 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019 High pressure will be centered over the middle of the country this evening, bringing the coldest air of the season so far to the area. The high will gradually slide southeast of the region late tonight, with southerly WAA developing. This warmer flow will continue through the day Tuesday, before a frontal boundary approaches Tuesday night and tracks across all but the far eastern part of the CWA. Highs on Tuesday will range from the mid 20s northeast to the lower 40s southwest, with lows Tuesday night in the 20s.
314 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019 Arctic high pressure will move south of Nebraska tonight leading to lowest temperatures before or around midnight. The temperature forecast Tuesday uses the cooler deterministic model blend forecast for highs in the 30s, 40s and near 50. This is several degrees cooler than the blended guidance and several more degrees cooler than the bias corrected guidance blend.
Light offshore flow through Tuesday is expected to reduce night and morning fog and low clouds, and result in warmer temperatures, especially near the coast. High pressure over California will weaken by the second half of the week, resulting in cooler temperatures and more cloud cover. Afternoon satellite shows much of the low cloud cover has diminished or pushed away from the coast. Many locations around the region are running 10-15 degrees warmer than yesterday afternoon.
333 PM MST Mon Nov 11 2019 The trough has swung through the Rockies and any lingering moisture is being replaced by much drier air. The question is how thick will the high cloud cover be that is spilling over the ridge upstream of us. The next system to plow over the top of the Western Ridge makes into into the northern Rockies tomorrow night.