Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
731 PM MST Mon Dec 2 2019 Upper-level ridging is expected to dominate the flow pattern over the Mountain West and the High Plains for the next few days. Afternoon high temperatures will range from the mid 40s to the mid 50s with cooler temperatures farther north and west. Low temperatures tonight will range from the low 20s to the upper 20s. Given more sunshine and good vertical mixing, temperatures will continue to increase with afternoon highs Tuesday ranging from the upper 40s to the upper 50s with cooler temperatures farther north and west. The region is under northwest flow at the start of the period, with an upper trough over the eastern CONUS.
Temperatures are holding steady in the mid to upper 30s for most areas, other than the Plateau where it remains around freezing.
In addition, expect a wind shift across the terminals towards the end of the TAF period as a cold front moves across the region. Protected low lying areas in the Northwest Hill Country may fall to freezing. Farther south, downslope southwest to west winds will allow temperatures to rise into the lower 70s.
Updated forecast earlier this evening to account for development of fog and to add potential for freezing drizzle from Pocatello northward through the evening. Receiving several reports now via social media and calls along with web cam evidence of freezing drizzle. Temperatures also not crazy cold with readings right near the freezing mark and expected to hover near those readings throughout a good portion of the night. However, model sounding show that the low level are very juicy and some of the models are continue to generate qpf. often times an indicator of freezing drizzle. Have decided to extend and expand the current winter weather advisory to account for freezing drizzle. Some spots may remain above freezing, and there is a possibility of this occurring in Pocatello City.
A weak cold front will pass across area terminals in the 18Z-20Z range Tuesday afternoon, bringing with it gusty northwesterly winds. /issued 245 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2019/ A rather bromidic forecast is on tap through the weekend, w/WV imagery showing a large upper ridge covering the srn CONUS.
333 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2019 Short wave trough moving across our region was bringing some good lift across North Dakota and northern South Dakota this afternoon. Otherwise, warmer Pacific air was making it into our western cwa this afternoon and will continue to push east through the night. Although, the snow cover will have aged some along with temperatures around freezing making it more difficult to blow the snow.
In addition, expect a wind shift across the terminals towards the end of the TAF period as a cold front moves across the region. In addition, expect a wind shift across the terminals towards the end of the TAF period as a cold front moves across the region. Protected low lying areas in the Northwest Hill Country may fall to freezing. Farther south, downslope southwest to west winds will allow temperatures to rise into the lower 70s.
Winds have turned southerly and were beginning to increase a bit ahead of a weak trough extending from central IA through MN attendant to a cold front well north into Canada. Weak trough /pseudo warm front/ will also swing through today. Lows look to be above normal and generally in the upper 20s to lower 30s, as cold advection is fairly weak with most of tonight being governed by westerly flow with downslope component and reservoir of warmer air shown around 925 mb. Late tonight some indications a cold front may begin to make inroads into our northern counties accompanied by gusty winds.
206 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2019 High pressure will build in for Tuesday. Light upslope snow and freezing drizzle continues across the northern mountains and Laurel Highlands late this evening, as we lose deep cloud cover. Sampling of IR satellite imagery indicates cloud top temps warmer than -10C over much of the region, suggesting a lack of ice crystals. Low level cold advection will result in overnight lows ranging from around 20F over the northern mountains, to around 30F in the Lower Susq Valley. Skies should be mostly sunny over the eastern half of PA on Tuesday with downslope westerly flow of 10 to 14 kts that will gust up to the low 20 kt range.
A weak cold front will pass across area terminals in the 18Z-20Z range Tuesday afternoon, bringing with it gusty northwesterly winds.
Dry weather will continue today with high pressure as the dominant feature.
1034 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2019 Weak trough working through the area leading to a wind shift from south to west. Gradient increases aloft behind the trough to produce low level wind shear through the night.
These gusty winds will decrease by early evening and light west winds can be expected overnight as an area of high pressure at the surface crosses western Kansas.
255 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2019 High pressure will bring dry and seasonable weather over the next several days.
1055 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2019 Stratus/stratocumulus continues to march east as a ridge of high pressure builds into the region. Otherwise, a cold front will quickly sweep across Missouri and Illinois during the afternoon with winds shifting from the south to the west. Temperatures will be warmer with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
That said the lows tonight will probably hover around freezing or just above.
1056 PM EST Mon Dec 2 2019 High pressure will build in for Tuesday. Light upslope snow and freezing drizzle continues across the northern mountains and Laurel Highlands late this evening, as we lose deep cloud cover. Sampling of IR satellite imagery indicates cloud top temps warmer than -10C over much of the region, suggesting a lack of ice crystals. Low level cold advection will result in overnight lows ranging from around 20F over the northern mountains, to around 30F in the Lower Susq Valley. Skies should be mostly sunny over the eastern half of PA on Tuesday with downslope westerly flow of 10 to 14 kts that will gust up to the low 20 kt range.
Infrared satellite imagery shows cloud top temperatures still registering on the warmer/lower range of the dendritic growth zone, though just barely, so it is conceivable that some light accumulating snowfall could continue for the next several hours before upper jet support completely shifts east of the area and upper level ridging approaches from the west.
Seeing a few light snow showers/flurries early this morning across NE TN, SW VA, and the higher elevations. The upper level pattern is currently characterized by a closed low near New England with a ridge to the west extending across the Great Lakes. Highs will be in the low to mid 40s for most locations. Lows will generally be in the low to mid 30s for most locations.
356 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2019 Fair and cool conditions today as dry high pressure builds into the area. The air mass will moderate through mid week with slightly warmer than normal temperatures. A low pressure system will move into the region late week with a chance of rain. Deep low pressure system off the New England coast will move to the northeast. Pressure ridge from the gulf coast region will extend into the area. Weak low level warm advection and some downslope flow so favor warmer side of guidance although still a cool day with full insolation with mainly high thin clouds. Short wave trough over the northern Plains will dive southeast across the region later tonight. Some extensive mid and high level clouds expected ahead of the trough. Min temps in the low to mid 30s.
The high will remain over the region over the next couple of days which will bring tranquil weather to the area. Today, cirrus clouds will continue to stream into the area ahead of a developing low pressure system in the Southern Plains. Surface winds will begin to turn around to the south as the high shifts to the southeast. Temperatures will be a bit tricky as the cirrus will limit the sun, which with the low sun angle this time of year could keep temperatures cooler despite the warm air advection. Went with highs in the lower to mid 50s.
824 PM MST Mon Dec 2 2019 Broad upper trof remains across the northern Plains with some very weak waves moving through it. One over eastern WY is bringing mid-level clouds over the forecast area with cooler air moving into the region tonight behind it. With temperatures above freezing today melting some of the snow cover, patchy fog could develop tonight, especially on SD plains below a shallow inversion. Dry northwest flow within broad upper ridging will keep conditions dry for the next several days.
There a number of smaller scale waves within the longer wave trough shifting southeast. Some weak isentropic lift is seen in the low-levels /850 mb, 295K/, but omega profiles are lacking with eastward isentropic surface speed negating parcel motion up the surface /advection/.
High clouds moving into the area will continue through the period, with winds switching from southwesterly to northwesterly as a sfc trof progresses southeast across the region overnight.
High pressure will strengthen over Utah and southwest Wyoming for tomorrow, resulting in dry conditions with temperatures warming at higher elevations.
322 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2019 High pressure will dominate the sensible weather through the short term period. Upper low is situated off the coast of New England this morning with a longwave trough off the east coast. Strong energy continues to rotate through the base of the trough early this morning.
113 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2019 Fair and cooler conditions expected through Tuesday.
Satellite imagery showed some stratus still lingering over our northeast that has slowed cooling there this evening but elsewhere, sites have dropped a degree or two cooler than expected.
The west winds will push into the northwest quarter of Minnesota as well, but the steadiest speeds will stay in North Dakota, especially to the higher elevations west of the Red River Valley.
Winds will pick up a little during the day and will shift to be more westerly to northwesterly in response to a weak passing cold front. Winds up to 10 knots will be common at most TAF sites during the day with gusty winds up to 25 knots possible at KMLC for a brief time after the cold front passes late in the day.
253 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2019 The departing upper trough and rising heights aloft will aid in bumping temperatures up into the 30s today as a warmer airmass out of the Pacific influences the region.
Winds will be light and become more west to southwesterly as a ridge slides east today. Combined with the increase in heights and more sunshine this afternoon, temps will be warmer (but still below normal) with daytime highs mainly in the upper 40s. The previously mentioned ridge will quickly depart as a trough swings through the Great Lakes region. Mostly clear skies and light winds tonight will provide good radiational cooling to have overnight temps dip back into the lower 30s.
321 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2019 A weak trough will approach from the northwest today and pass through the Ohio Valley tonight. Low clouds will break up from west to east this morning but will be replaced by high clouds streaming in from the Midwest ahead of that trough. Lows will be around the freezing mark.
254 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2019 High pressure will build in today bringing sunny skies and seasonable temperatures.
The forecast is currently well prepared for fog, with widespread fog included for the low- lying areas. Drier and warmer conditions remain on tap for Tuesday. An area of high pressure moving over the area will result in reduced boundary layer wind and decreased mixing through the end of the week.
225 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2019 Upper low bringing snow showers to parts of the mid-state now off the US northeast coast. with associated deep trough also well east. Following tonights upper trough, upper flow then dampens into the end of the week as a SFC/LL high pressure move across.
VFR conditions persist through the period as high pressure shifts over the region in the next 24 hours. Expect cooler temperatures to continue tonight, with lows in the 40s for most. Onshore flow will return Tuesday as high pressure shifts to the east.
1044 PM EST Mon Dec 2 2019 Currently - Fresh northwesterlies prevail in wake of the earlier cold front passage. Short Term Update - Winds are likely near their peak as another trough spoke will rotate through later overnight. Warmer gulf waters will hold temperatures up in the Lower Keys in the lower to mid 60s. A cold front blew through the area earlier in the day.
The trough is dropping southward and will arrive in northern Colorado around 12z. This is when the wave exits the region and dry air filters in behind the trough. A transitory ridge builds across the region on Tuesday night ahead of the next low pressure that makes landfall in Southern California. Models show good agreement of an upper level low coming onshore the south-central California coast Wednesday.
Think it will be slightly warmer today across the area with highs, where snow persists, in the mid 40s and 50s expected elsewhere.
337 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2019 H5 analysis from earlier tonight had a closed low off the coast of Virginia. A trough extended south of this feature into the Bahamas. Further west, a closed low was located approximately 500 miles west of San Francisco CA. A trough extended to the south west of this feature and shows up on WV imagery overnight. At the surface, high pressure was anchored across the intermountain west. Mid level hts will rise slightly into the afternoon hours as the trough transitions east. Highs will range from the lower 40s in the north to near 50 in southwestern Nebraska.
By midday, downslope component may weaken with a Longmont anticyclone in the aftn. Hi res data has highs occurring this morning, in some areas, and then cooler in the aftn. Meanwhile, flow aloft will weaken, so winds over the higher terrain will be considerably less than what has occurred this morning. High pressure ridge aloft will build into Colorado on Wednesday as the flow relaxes a bit and shifts more westerly.
338 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2019 (Today and Tonight) A weak cold front will move south across the area this afternoon and early evening, bringing slightly cooler temperatures to the area for tomorrow. Ahead of the front, breezy west to northwest downsloping winds will develop by late morning and will contribute to warmer temperatures across the area today, with afternoon highs ranging from the mid and upper 60s across the Big Country, to the low and mid 70s farther south.
Upper ridge builds in over the Panhandles middle of this week ahead of an approaching southern stream closed upper low from southern California.
Weak upper level troughing is moving across the area this morning which is ushering a surface boundary south through the area. Upper level ridging will re-establish itself across the area on Wednesday however slightly cooler temperatures aloft will lead to cooler surface temperatures mostly in the upper 50's. Surface lee troughing will also develop once again on Wednesday which will lead to some breezy southwest winds. Further west, an upper level low is currently spinning off the central California coast.
from the teens in the river valleys to the lower 40s along the Black Hills in downslope flow.
Lows on Tuesday night will fall into the 30s, remaining well above freezing for most areas.
The west winds will push into the northwest quarter of Minnesota as well, but the steadiest speeds will stay in North Dakota, especially to the higher elevations west of the Red River Valley. Therefore expect a slightly cooler day, but not by much.
Lake enhanced snow showers will come to an end gradually as brief ridging moves in throughout the day. freezing drizzle and light snow in the advisory area of the ridges remains a possibility this morning. For now, still expect snow to be the dominant precipitation form, although drizzle/freezing drizzle could be an issue once again if ice crystals are lacking. A warmer boundary layer will keep a rain/snow mix in the lower elevations initially on Wednesday, before the arrival of cold advection/northwest flow helps to turn over all precip to snow. The ridges may pick up a couple inches, with less elsewhere.
An upper level trough moving across the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes sends a weak front into our area this evening into tonight.
Wednesday brings similar conditions, but with increasing clouds in the afternoon and evening as an upper low currently in the Pacific makes its way across California.
Then late this evening a dry cold front will move through the region and turn the winds to north- northwesterly and drop speeds below 10 kts. An upper level trough moving across the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes sends a weak front into our area this evening into tonight.
A weak trough will approach from the northwest today and pass through the Ohio Valley tonight. Low clouds will break up from west to east this morning but will be replaced by high clouds streaming in from the Midwest ahead of that trough. Lows will be around the freezing mark.
506 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2019 12Z TAF issuance VFR prevails with winds shifting to the north this afternoon behind a weak cold front. /issued 303 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2019/ An upper level trough is centered over Minnesota and an upper low is over the Pacific Ocean off the west coast of California. The upper trough over the Pacific Ocean moves over SoCal on Wednesday with westerly flow over West Texas and southeast New Mexico.
We should see a brief period of cooling by mid morning with the cold frontal passage.
The stratus is thick enough to produce some areas of freezing drizzle. Models show an upper low ejecting across CA/NV Wednesday night, bringing some slight chance PoPs to our Southeastern Highlands and northern Wasatch range.
536 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2019 H5 analysis from earlier tonight had a closed low off the coast of Virginia. A trough extended south of this feature into the Bahamas. Further west, a closed low was located approximately 500 miles west of San Francisco CA. A trough extended to the south west of this feature and shows up on WV imagery overnight. At the surface, high pressure was anchored across the intermountain west. Mid level hts will rise slightly into the afternoon hours as the trough transitions east. Highs will range from the lower 40s in the north to near 50 in southwestern Nebraska.
639 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2019 Fair and cool conditions today as dry high pressure builds into the area. The air mass will moderate through mid week with slightly warmer than normal temperatures. A low pressure system will move into the region late week with a chance of rain. Deep low pressure system off the New England coast will move to the northeast. Pressure ridge from the gulf coast region will extend into the area. Weak low level warm advection and some downslope flow so favor warmer side of guidance although still a cool day with full insolation with mainly high thin clouds. Short wave trough over the northern Plains will dive southeast across the region later tonight. Some extensive mid and high level clouds expected ahead of the trough. Min temps in the low to mid 30s.
433 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2019 Under variably cloudy skies and north to northeast winds of 10 to 20 mph, temperatures vary from the mid 50s in the Upper Keys to the lower to mid 60s elsewhere.
Otherwise, expect a wind shift to a more westerly/northwesterly direction this evening as a cold front pushes through the state. Today Through Wednesday Night Latest satellite imagery continues to depict cloud cover over the northern and central portions of the state, while surface obs show temperatures in the lower to mid 30s with light winds near or below 5 MPH. Temperatures should drop a couple of more degrees through the early morning hours, with lows in the lower 30s and some isolated areas in the upper 20s. This will help advect warmer and more moist air into the state throughout the afternoon hours. Lows overnight will be similar to previous nights, with much of the state dipping into the lower to mid 30s.
914 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2019 High pressure will bring dry and seasonable weather over the next several days.
Upper low bringing snow showers to parts of the mid-state now off the US northeast coast. with associated deep trough also well east. Following tonights upper trough, upper flow then dampens into the end of the week as a SFC/LL high pressure move across.
/Today through Wednesday/ Cold morning to start the day with below to near freezing temperatures across portions of the region. Sfc ridging will continue to shift southeast of our region today, allowing for returning southerly to southwesterly winds at the sfc.
A weak cold front will move through the terminals this afternoon and evening. /issued 338 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2019/ (Today and Tonight) A weak cold front will move south across the area this afternoon and early evening, bringing slightly cooler temperatures to the area for tomorrow. Ahead of the front, breezy west to northwest downsloping winds will develop by late morning and will contribute to warmer temperatures across the area today, with afternoon highs ranging from the mid and upper 60s across the Big Country, to the low and mid 70s farther south.
The latest blend of model guidance and ECM MOS guidance suggests highs in the low to mid 40s across the west today, with highs in the mid 30s to around 40 degrees across central North Dakota where the current snowpack is more significant. Today will be a good day for snowmelt given the above freezing temperatures, sunshine, and breezy conditions.
A low pressure system moving through northern Canada will bring a front through Wisconsin today. There is a decent amount of dry air in the low levels, but can't rule out a few flurries this morning. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected Wednesday with temperatures remaining in the 30s. The latter portion of the workweek looks to be fairly quiet, with high pressure pushing through the southeastern United States.
523 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2019 The departing upper trough and rising heights aloft will aid in bumping temperatures up into the 30s today as a warmer airmass out of the Pacific influences the region. High pressure at the sfc will keep the area dry today and Wednesday.
Today Through Wednesday Night Latest satellite imagery continues to depict cloud cover over the northern and central portions of the state, while surface obs show temperatures in the lower to mid 30s with light winds near or below 5 MPH. Temperatures should drop a couple of more degrees through the early morning hours, with lows in the lower 30s and some isolated areas in the upper 20s. This will help advect warmer and more moist air into the state throughout the afternoon hours. Lows overnight will be similar to previous nights, with much of the state dipping into the lower to mid 30s.
Winds will be light and become more west to southwesterly as a ridge slides east today. Combined with the increase in heights and more sunshine this afternoon, temps will be warmer (but still below normal) with daytime highs mainly in the upper 40s. The previously mentioned ridge will quickly depart as a trough swings through the Great Lakes region. Mostly clear skies and light winds tonight will provide good radiational cooling to have overnight temps dip back into the lower 30s. This will help overnight lows be a tad higher in the low/mid 30s.
A weak trough and associated wind shift will move south through the area this morning.
303 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2019 An upper level trough is centered over Minnesota and an upper low is over the Pacific Ocean off the west coast of California. The upper trough over the Pacific Ocean moves over SoCal on Wednesday with westerly flow over West Texas and southeast New Mexico.
South winds will pickup a bit today and veer to the southwest then west when a weak cold front slides through exiting by early this evening. Surface ridging will build back into the region tonight with clear skies and lows in the low to mid 30s.
614 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2019 High pressure will bring dry and seasonable weather over the next several days.