Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL THEN REDUCE RAIN CHANCES SOMEWHAT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BACK INTO THE 60S AT MANY SITES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. HOWEVER OUR ATTENTION NOW TURNS TOWARD THE INVERTED TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. BUT CONFIDENCE IN HOW WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE IS STILL ON THE LOW SIDE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY LIKELY MINUS THE INVERTED TROUGH. INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND WARMER MID-LEVELS.
428 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS INDIANA TODAY.
300 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015 CLEAR SKIES AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WAS LIFTING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING. ALLOWING THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA.
A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS HIGH COULD BE SAID TO CONNECT ALL THE WAY TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHERE RIDGING IS STRONGEST. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. MOVING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 60S. WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 80S (NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS).
157 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THURSDAY.
341 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHER TIER CONUS TODAY.
THE HIGH RES END OF THE GUIDANCE (HRRR/NMM/ARW, ETC) ARE ADVERTISING AN MCS SETTING UP OVER NORTHERN AL TODAY. WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PERSISTS FROM TEXAS. WHILE BROAD HIGH LEVEL TROF ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
353 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 CURRENTLY - A WEAK RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES ACROSS THE KEYS AREA. LOWER LEVEL RIDGING WITH ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR IS ALSO IN PLACE. FORECAST - THE WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE LOWER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO REMAIN CLOSE BY.
509 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 HEAT CONTINUES ON TODAY BEFORE STRONG A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT.
Juicy and boundary-rich air mass remains in place over the Ohio Valley, but some fairly substantial changes are on the way as a cold front pushes ESE from the Upper Mississippi Valley. Later in the day our precip chances really start to ramp up with the approach of the cold front. Heat will likely be a bigger story today, with temps climbing into the lower 90s, and dewpoints solidly in the mid-70s as moisture pools over southern Indiana and generally west of I-65 in Kentucky. The cold front and its associated convection should push south and east of the area overnight, but could hang up just enough to give us an isolated T-storm across south central Kentucky Thursday morning.
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE IMPACTING THE CWA WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S.
300 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015 GENERALLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH IN THE EAST.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN UTAH LATE THURSDAY AND THEN SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN OVER NEW MEXICO AND OUR FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHERLY.
621 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND A DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE WEEKEND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.
1245 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
418 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 HEAT CONTINUES ON TODAY BEFORE STRONG A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT.
318 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015 Upper ridge centered over Eastern OK this morning will begin to shift back to the west as upper trough passing to the north moves over the Northeast.
Summer conditions return to the Inland Northwest as a ridge of high pressure takes control. High pressure is currently anchored off the northern California coast. This area of high pressure will continue to build and expand over the next several days. The other large scale feature worth mentioning is a very broad upper level low over Alaska. Over time, the ridge of high pressure will win out.
TROUGHING THROUGH THE MID LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING TOWARDS FLORIDA WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE SW AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MIGRATES TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BRIEFLY CONSIDERED DIALING BACK THE FLOOD WATCH AREA THIS MORNING GIVEN THE LOWER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT GOT PINCHED OFF THE MID LATITUDE FLOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS WEAKENED FROM ITS EARLIER STATE BUT NONETHELESS IS CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE TROUGH HAS INDUCED LOWER PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AS WELL AND THIS HAS PLACED OUR REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW.
Summer conditions return to the Inland Northwest as a ridge of high pressure takes control. , but overall expect a mostly clear night as high pressure builds into the region. This would be short lived as dry and warmer weather is expected Wednesday as temperatures warm 5 to 8 degrees warmer than today. 06Z TAFS: As high pressure builds over the region, expect VFR condtions at the TAF sites for the next 24 hours.
1118 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015 EVEN WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO 12-15 PERCENT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE BUILDING RIDGE ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDLESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH SUCH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE NORTH AND THE HIGH BUILDING IN THE FROM THE WEST. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT. LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW SWINGS SEVERAL FAST MOVING SMALL WAVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. MOISTURE WRAPPING ACROSS NORTHERN MN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING SCT SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO KINL AND POSSIBLY EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS KHIB.
A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS HUDSON BAY.
340 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015 WEST TEXAS CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS MADE FORECASTING CONVECTION NOT SO FUN. HEIGHT THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD WHICH WILL FURTHER LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND HELP WARM TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO OVER WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY. NWP THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE HIGH WILL STAY OUT WEST FOR THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED. THE ECM AND NAM SUGGEST THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AS THE RESULT OF TRAILING ENERGY FROM A LOW UP NEAR HUDSON BAY.
636 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 HEAT CONTINUES ON TODAY BEFORE STRONG A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow under upper-lvl ridging.
310 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015 A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WILL SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS TODAY. AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN U. STRONG UPPER LOW OVER LAKE WINNIPEG EARLY THIS MORNING ONLY WILL MAKE SLOW NORTHEAST PROGRESS INTO HUDSON BAY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS A BROAD TROUGH ENVELOPS THE MIDWEST. WE'LL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE FRINGE OF THE THERMAL RIDGE THAT AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID- UPPER 80S THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH SOME MODEST COOLING THIS WEEKEND AS THE BROAD TROUGH DIGS FURTHER.
429 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS WILL DRIFT WESTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO TODAY.
216 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
136 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TOMORROW, AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPANDS OFFSHORE EAST OF JACKSONVILLE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO MIDLEVEL TROUGHING STRETCHING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE H5 RIDGE NOW CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH BROAD TROUGHING DOWN THE EASTERN CONUS COAST. IN ADDITION, A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD LEAVING A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO MONTANA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY.
325 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW CIRCULATING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MANITOBA. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA. BRINGING OCCASIONAL LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
Most high res models continue to weaken this area in the near term as it moves farther south underneath mid level ridging. A cold front will move through this afternoon and evening. Winds will be westerly to southwesterly early today becoming northerly with the passage of the cold front this afternoon.
158 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY ALIGNMENT LOOKS GOOD AS THE NRN ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO THE AREA.
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND 500 DAM HEIGHTS SHOWS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST TX AND OKLAHOMA WITH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT CIRCULATION AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE HELPING TO MIX SOME OF THIS LOWER DEW POINTS DOWN TO THE SFC. DO EXPECT DEW POINT VALUES TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S NEAR THE COAST AND NEAR MID TO LOW 60S TOWARDS THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
THEN MUCH LESS HUMID LATER TOMORROW INTO LATE WEEK BEHIND A COLD FRONT. BY LATE TODAY APPROACHING FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO POPS A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA. COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO THE EASTERN STATES NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP LOWER DEW POINTS WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES INTO LATE WEEK.
343 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY.
UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL ALLOW US TO BE IN A MOSTLY UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100. STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 7OS.
WARMER DAY ON TAP AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO MODERATE AND WARM AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
427 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND A DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE WEEKEND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.
A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON THURSDAY. VERY QUIET EVENING WITH WEAK 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERHEAD AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
150 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 AVIATION A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT. PROBABLY DUE TO ITS MOVING INTO THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN ATTM. PCPN SHOULD WIND DOWN BY AFTERNOON AFTER WHICH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE TREND IS TOWARD COOLER AND WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS (NOT SO MUCH THUNDERSTORMS EITHER). IT LOOKS VERY GOOD FOR A UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER LOW TO DEVELOP AND STALL OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. THE NAERFS SHOWS THE RETURN PERIOD OF SUCH AN EVENT (DEEP UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY) TO BE ONE DAY IN 10 YEARS.
300 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 THE SYNOPSIS SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS INDIANA TODAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE QUICKLY ENDING EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY GOING COOLER TONIGHT THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO RAIN-COOLED AIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLING TO THE NORTH WITH FRONT. MAYBE SLIGHTLY WARMER TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER MN/WI WITH WEAK HIGH OVER THE CWA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH WITH PRESSURE FALLS OVER MT/ND RESULTING IN DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS WY INTO THE PANHANDLE. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TIGHTENS UP OVER CWA WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL JET/850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION.
612 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015 A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON TUESDAY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
By the afternoon, the lower atmosphere may become favorable for a few stronger thunderstorms in southwest Montana to the Sapphires.
FOR NOW THE COLD FRONT IS EASING OUT OF OK INTO AR AND IS DOWN INTO AUSTIN IN E TX. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY LAST A DAY OR TWO WITH SOME HELP FROM CLOUDS AND RAIN. LATER IN THE WEEK THE WARMER TEMPS AND MUGGY AIR FLOWING BACK NORTH WILL BRING BACK THE CONVECTIVE AMOUNTS WHICH COULD THREATEN SATURATED AREAS WITH MORE FLOODING.
301 PM CDT Mon May 11 2015 A cold front has moved through the area bringing gusty northeast winds and cooler temperatures to the area. There remains a warm and moist southeast flow riding over this airmass which combined with an approaching weak upper trough will cause convection to expand across much of the area south of I-20 tonight.
607 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015 SUMMERTIME WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL COME TO AN END LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. COOLER.
A FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECAST WITH THIS LOW SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND NORTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ARRIVES. THE LOW CLOUD DECK EXTENDS BACK TO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AT THIS TIME. AND WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH THE LOW. AND AGAIN SKIES SCATTERING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE LOW.
321 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015 UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH RIDGING INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. CLOSED LOW OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH RIDGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ESPECIALLY OVER SHERIDAN AND WESTERN CHERRY COUNTIES WITH THE SNOW COVER. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH AND TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER AS RIDGE BUILDS EAST.
226 PM MDT MON MAY 11 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE RIDGE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ALONG THE WEST COAST. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SOUTH AND EAST ACRS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS ZONES. THERE WAS A SHORT PERIOD THIS MORNING PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION WHEN TEMPERATURES ACRS THE SRN ZONES CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 80S. RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S ACRS ACADIANA TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACRS SE TX AS OF 3 PM. A COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 80S. THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL CHANGE LITTLE WITH SWLY FLOW PERSISTING BETWEEN A MEAN TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS.
COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.
Pre-frontal trough already east of I-65 as of 2 pm, which has been the main show for convective initiation this afternoon. This is largely due to the pre-frontal trough. Along the true cold front, cloud debris, cooler temperatures and slightly lower dewpoints is keeping the environment in check. Once the front passes later this evening, noticeably drier and cooler conditions will push into the region. Tuesday is shaping up to be a pleasant yet breezy day as high pressure begins to push into the area.
1210 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS DEEP 1002MB LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN SD WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT RUNNING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO EASTERN IA. DRAGGING OCCLUSION/COLD FRONT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WI BY 18Z. FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AFTER 18Z AS THE LOW CONTINUE TO TRACK INTO NORTHERN WI. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/SOUTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WI/UPPER MI. LOOKS DRY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TAP OTHERWISE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD CONDITIONS.
344 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING INTO EASTERN TEXAS.
307 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015 UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH RIDGING INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. CLOSED LOW OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH RIDGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ESPECIALLY OVER SHERIDAN AND WESTERN CHERRY COUNTIES WITH THE SNOW COVER. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH AND TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER AS RIDGE BUILDS EAST.
/ISSUED 339 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2015/ SHIFT IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT DIMINISHING TRENDS IN ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACTIVITY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
THEN A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE LATER PORTIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO. MODELS THIS MORNING DO INDICATE SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRECEDE THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHWEST KANSAS, HOWEVER BASED ON TIMING OF THE HIGH CLOUDS THE SKIES OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ON TUESDAY THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CROSSES KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY.
SOME DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MOVING INTO YOUR TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL USHER IN COOLER AND CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPS FOR YOU TUESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THIS HIGH WILL ALSO USHER IN DRYER AIR WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40 TO NEAR 50. TWO THE COLD FRONT AND ANY OUTFLOWS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TOMORROW WITH CLEARING SKIES.
400 PM MDT MON MAY 11 2015 SHORT WAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPE. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN USUAL THOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
141 PM PDT MON MAY 11 2015 BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS LATE TUESDAY AND COOLER AS A WEAK TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION.
TEMPS ARE STILL LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND FREEZING OR EVEN BELOW DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND LOCAL VALLEY EFFECTS. DEBATED ON FREEZE WARNING BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IN WIDESPREAD TEMPS BELOW FREEZING OR IN THE UPPER 20S. ANY INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT COULD KEEP TEMPS MORE IN THE LOW 30S.
334 PM PDT Mon May 11 2015 Cooler and more unsettled conditions expected this week across the interior of NorCal as several weather systems affect the region.
401 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015 STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT KICKING OFF THUNDERTORMS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT TOMORROW. USHERNING IN MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS. COLD FRONT NOW NEAR THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR NEXT FEW DAYS. DEW POINTS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE LOWER 40S TO UPPER 30S. TUESDAY MORNING WILL START OUT DRY BUT COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS IN THE EAST AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
255 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015 A COLD FRONT DELINEATED BY A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF CHICAGO TO JUST EAST OF BLOOMINGTON AND TAYLORVILLE. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL ALONG WITH BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS WERE DECREASING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEST OF I-55 AT MID AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER EASTERN IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
341 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015 LAST NIGHT/S COLD FRONT IS STALLING OUT ACROSS SW AND SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
With cooler air near the surface, isentropic upglide will also be a player tonight and tomorrow for continued shower and thunderstorm activity, especially for locations south of our Interstate 20 corridor.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.
Lows tonight are expected to settle into the lower to mid 40s, and temperatures Tuesday afternoon should not exceed the mid-upper 60s due to limited mixing.
SOME DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MOVING INTO YOUR TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL USHER IN COOLER AND CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPS FOR YOU TUESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THIS HIGH WILL ALSO USHER IN DRYER AIR WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40 TO NEAR 50.
UPDATE: Cold front is moving through St. The trailing cold front stretches from just east of Kirksville to Moberly, to Sedalia and southwest to Springfield at 300 AM.