Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1147 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015 AT H5 TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, STRONG BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FLOW FROM DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM MAINE TO NEW YORK TO KENTUCKY THEN SOUTHWEST TO THE TEXAS COAST. STRONG 130KT+JET DIGGING TROUGH TO THE WEST FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE INITIALLY WITH MOIST LOWER LAYER AND DRY AIR ABOVE. HAVE SKEWED THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AGAIN TO THE SNOWLESS GROUND BUT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST HAVE KEPT HIGHS MAINLY AROUND FREEZING WITH UPPER 20S OVER SHERIDAN AND WESTERN CHERRY COUNTIES AND SOME MID 30S OVER THE SOUTHWEST. CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.
An upper level ridge is situated over the Atlantic while the SE remains in Southwesterly to Southerly flow. For low temperatures tonight, went on the warmer side of guidance and with clouds expected tonight, may still be a tad bit low.
TO THE LOWER 80S. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF VFR FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND FRONTS. /ISSUED 507 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015/ WAVY COLD FRONT DRAPED OVER THE ARKLATEX FROM NEAR LUFKIN. THIS WILL KICK OUR SOUTHERLY WINDS IN GEAR AND PUSH THE WARM FRONT QUICKLY TO THE NORTH ALONG THE I-30 CORRIDOR. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL REDEVELOP ON THE NEW APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS IT SLOWLY WORKS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
COLD FRONT THIS MORNING STALLED ACROSS THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY. AND IS CURRENTLY LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING FOG CONTINUES NORTHERN FLINT HILLS INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS.
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING SO PCPN TYPE SHOULD MAINLY RANGE FROM RAIN AROUND OSH TO A MIX OF R/S AT GRB TO ALL SNOW OVER NC WI. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT SO WOULD NOT BE TOTALLY SURPRISED TO SEE A WINTRY MIX OR SOME FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.
257 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CREST OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
Freezing fog is also likely to develop in many of these areas, with it lifting and dissipating late in the morning or during the afternoon.
ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA KICKING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST US EARLY THIS MORNING AND ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT FREEZING FOG FOLLOWING IT. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 700 MB LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING. UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOWER LEVELS TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE.
GRADUAL NORTHWARD DRIFT SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF DEEPENING WESTERN UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE MORE RAIN TODAY WITH THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR THE EAST CENTRAL CORNER. STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING THE THE WESTERN GULF FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY.
After midnight, we should see the boundary return as a warm front slowly but surely. Where will the boundary be? The synoptic models suggest it will set up somewhere along the lower OH by early pm, but they could contain the same bias and thus it be actually 50-75 miles south of there, or, just entering the FA. Either case, rain should pick up to categorical tmrw, as the warm front lifts thru the region. Some low layer mucape is present as well, so we'll include a chance, or slgt chance, thunder, with the lift thru of the warm front.
BROAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE CROSSES THE REGION AND THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OVER THE AREA AS RIDGING INCREASES OVER THE NORTHEAST.
LIGHT RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES CLIMBING SLOWLY SO FAR TODAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS EVENING THEN REMAIN STEADY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THEN ON SATURDAY WITH HELP FROM A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH.
1127 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TODAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.
SEE SOME THREAT FOR FREEZING AT ONSET AND TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENT. WITH THE SNOW AND POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION.
123 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL KEEP UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM NEAR 40 NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE SHIFTING NORTH WITH THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT. THIS ALLOWS SFC WAVE TO RIPPLE NE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP SE THRU ILN/S FA SUN AFTN.
THE MAIN QUESTION FOR TONIGHT WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL STAY TOGETHER ONCE THE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH. WITH PW VALUES NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND A NICE LOW LEVEL JET SHAPING UP BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.
214 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLE WARM WEATHER IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
COLDER SUB-FREEZING MAX TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WI THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON THE SFC TEMPERATURES. WARMER MAX TEMPERATURES ALOFT COMBINED WITH A MIXTURE OF ICE/NO ICE IN THE -10 TO -20 CELSIUS LAYER FAVORS A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY MORNING. SFC TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE FREEZING MARK.
404 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLE WARM WEATHER IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
/ISSUED 430 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015/ The main forecast concerns with this forecast package deal with the longwave trof that continues to dig southeastward over the Western Conus this morning.
920 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015 TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR ZERO F ACROSS MOST OF NORTH- CENTRAL MT AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES FURTHER THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE STATE. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. UPDATED 1150Z A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS MOIST AND UNSETTLED THROUGH THE DAY.
A PREFRONTAL TROUGH RAN SOUTHWESTWARD OF KSGR. THE TROUGH AND FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM EAGLE LAKE TO NAVASOTA TO TRINITY. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES PREVAIL THIS MORNING AND IT WON'T TAKE MUCH HEATING TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 80S. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO TEXAS LATE SAT NITE.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT SWITCHING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND THEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AND SHIFT NORTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE BULGES BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING THE THE WESTERN GULF FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK.
LIFT WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES EWD. DID NOT LINGER ANY MENTION OF PCPN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
302 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015 SW flow aloft across the central plains this afternoon continues east of large upper trough over the desert southwest. Based on current and expected temperatures, much of the forecast area should remain above freezing tonight except the northwest corner where temperatures near freezing should persist. Will change the precipitation from liquid to freezing/frozen in the northwest Saturday.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT OVER THESE LOCATIONS AS SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL LIKELY FALL BENEATH TRAINING CONVECTION AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IS MAINTAINED AND VEERS. A COOL AIRMASS HAS BECOME REINFORCED AS NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND ADVECT COOLER AND DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD. UNDER RIDGING ALOFT.
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS TODAY, THEN BREEZY NORTH WINDS ON SATURDAY AS STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER. UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH. DUE TO THE INSTABILITY WITH THE TROUGH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION AND REMOVE THE FOG. THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH BUILDS INTO THE PACNW ON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ALLOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO REDEVELOP IN THE LOWER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
253 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015 STARTING TO SEE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AS UPPER TROUGH/DIFFLUENCE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE PLAINS.
HAVE BUMPED UP THE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BUT MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER. A SHARP 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL DIG SE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.
THE STRONGEST LIFT THEN TRANSITIONS INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING WHERE THE MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS FROM 00-06Z. HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE 3-6 INCHES ARE SHOWN.
A strong cold front will arrive at CNM and HOB at the end of this TAF period so went ahead and introduced the wind shift attm. It will be mild and dry this Christmas with southwest flow aloft ahead of a deepening trof. Water vapor imagery is showing a deep trof centered over the Rockies. As the trof continues to deepen and move slowly east a cutoff low will develop over the triple point of SW New Mexico/SE Arizona/ Northern Mexico Saturday.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL SOON BEGIN TO RETURN NWD AS A WARM FRONT WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A STG COLD FRONT AND APPROACHING VERY DEEP CLOSED LOW FROM THE WEST.
ACTIVITY REALLY RAMPS UP ON SATURDAY AS THIS MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. BUT THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND UP INTO EASTERN SD AND SOUTHERN MN BY TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP A BIT ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW PASSES BY.
I WOULD EXPECT SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WINS OUT AND THIS BOUNDARY FINALLY LIFTS OUT TO NORTH.
MERRY CHRISTMAS! FELIZ NAVIDAD! IT IS ANOTER WARM ONE AS A STRONG ATLANTIC RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FL. THIS WARM, HUMID PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH YEAR'S END AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE. THIS WILL KEEP COLD FRONTS FROM ENTERING OUR AREA.
WV Imagery indicates a broad upper level trough of low pressure digging southeast across the Great Basin into the Desert Southwest. Near the surface, a large area of high pressure is drifting eastward across the Upper Midwest. A strong cold front will pass across western Kansas late tonight. Steady or falling temperatures can be expected on Saturday in the wake of the cold front.
Precipitation coverage and intensity will increase during the day Saturday as a cold front moves into the area from the west.
THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH MORE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ONCE THIS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT.
348 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015 The quiet weather over Christmas Day will begin to transition to more active weather as a significant trough begins to dig into the Desert Southwest overnight. This trough will translate into the Southern Plains before ejecting northward towards the Mississippi River Basin and Great Lakes region. If the system can pull in colder air, the NW portion of the CWA could see several inches of snow, however, If the temperature profile remains warm in the mid-levels but a shallow layer of cold air works in at the surface then freezing rain could pose issues.
229 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015 Strong upper trough over the SW US will cutoff with the low moving along the US/Mex border and then swinging across the area. Once this low swings northeast out of TX another upper trough will quickly follow it down into the area.
ELEVATED SRLY WINDS LOOK LIKELY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MEXICAN PLATEAU TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT OVER THE WRN GULF REGION.
1145 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015 TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR ZERO F ACROSS MOST OF NORTH- CENTRAL MT AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES FURTHER THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE STATE. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. UPDATED 1745Z A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.
A COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
1246 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. DRY AIR ACCOMPANYING THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SCT TO BKN CIRRUS MAINLY ABOVE 20KFT TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EXPAND INTO LOWER MI TODAY AMIDST MID LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND PERIODIC HIGH CLOUDS GIVE JUST ENOUGH PAUSE FROM GOING TOO OPTIMISTIC ON AFTERNOON SKY COVER. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR FROM THE TX GULF COAST INTO THE MID MS/OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER LOW ROTATING INTO THE SWRN US.
COULD HAVE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE HOWEVER. SATURDAY MORNING A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM EAGLE LAKE TO NAVASOTA TO TRINITY. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES PREVAIL THIS MORNING AND IT WON'T TAKE MUCH HEATING TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 80S. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO TEXAS LATE SAT NITE.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
A RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS ON TOP OF EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA AND THIS IS GIVING US OUR CLEAR SKIES. WINDS TODAY WILL SWING OUT OF THE SOUTH AND WE SHOULD SEE DEW POINTS CREEPING BACK TOWARDS 60 AS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S ONCE AGAIN.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Cold front to move through forecast area today, mainly bringing an increase in mid and high clouds as low level moisture is fairly limited. As for high temps, will range from the low 70s far north to mid 70s to low 80s elsewhere.
COULD SEE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE W HALF TONIGHT. WITH TEMPS FALLING TO FREEZING OVER THE INTERIOR W LATE TONIGHT. NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS POKING INTO THE ROCKIES AND A DEEP AND BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U. THE RIDGE AND TROUGH MOVE VERY LITTLE ON FRI AND FRI NIGHT AND THEN THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z SUN WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE ERN U. ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U. COOLER AIR ALOFT MAY RESULT IN SOME GRAUPEL DURING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AFTN AND CIGS MAY APPROACH HIGH END MVFR DURING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. WEST WINDS 15-25 KTS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON THIS MORNING AS COLD FRONT CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR.
149 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL WORK FROM KENTUCKY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT WILL WORK EWD FROM THE MS VALLEY TOWARDS THE FA. THURSDAY STARTS OFF WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE WORKING IN ON FRIDAY FROM NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE PLAINS. THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD FRIDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WAS EVIDENT IN THE WIND FIELD FROM ABOUT MARSHALL TO DULUTH AT 3AM. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY AND A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. MIXED DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 20S. HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH CENTER STILL TO THE WEST WINDS FROM THE JAMES EAST WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH WITH ENOUGH MIXING TO STALL THE TEMPERATURE DROP FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS. THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY FRIDAY PM.
ABOUT 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY LATER TODAY WHILE MOSTLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE JUST AFTER SUNSET. LARGER IMPACT BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL BE A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES. A GOOD 20-25 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN BEGIN THE WEEKEND BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
AS FOR RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND FRIDAY AND INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINING WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SET OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS TODAY ACROSS THE LOWER AND MID VALLEY REGION WITH DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS.
Continued dry and near normal temperatures are expected as the atmosphere moderates warmer through the weekend.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT KEEPING THINGS DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE 70S.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CENTER OVER NORTH DAKOTA BY FRIDAY MORNING. AN H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. WHILE IT IS REPLACED WITH A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOIST AIR TO WORK WITH IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH AN 85H RIDGE SHUTTING DOWN ANY RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF.
348 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WITH THE COMBINATION OF 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG THE FRONT. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT USHER IN COLD AND DRY CANADIAN AIR.
422 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING BELOW NORMAL.
548 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S WITH A FEW OF THE LOCALLY COLDER SPOTS IN THE UPPER 30S.
639 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. LATE TODAY CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST BRINGING THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WHICH COULD BE MIXED WITH WET SNOW ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
1115 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2015 UPR RIDGING WL BE FOUND OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAINLY IN THE LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS INCLUDING THE ALAMOSA AREA. WL PROBABLY SEE A 2-3 HOURS PERIOD OF SUB FREEZING TEMPS AND THUS WL LEAVE THE FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT. AS LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS WL MOSTLY STAY ABOVE FREEZING. IT MAKES THE HIGH TEMPS FORECAST A LITTLE CHALLENGING. WHICH WL BE COOLER THAN TODAY BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE. WHILE GENERALLY COOLER CONDITIONS MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
1101 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2015 12Z H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS EXTENSIVE PHASING OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF NOAM TRANSITIONING TO STRONG RIDGING OFF THE THE LEFT COAST. THE REX LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN UNDER THE RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. THE STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING UP FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS PHASED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES OUR AREA.
SHARP UPPER RIDGE WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE WILL DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
337 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S AND THUS EXPECT PATCHY FROST EARLY THIS MORNING. SUNSHINE AND WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL HELP QUICKLY WARM THE ATMOSPHERE. LEANED A LITTLE TOWARD WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR TODAY. COLD FRONT MAKES IT INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA BY EARLY EVENING THEN CROSSES THE REST OF THE CWA TONIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL THEN SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW SPOTS COULD EVEN DROP CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY A S/WV WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND MIDWEST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY RE-ENFORCING TROUGHING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AFTER ANOTHER WARM DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS AGAIN APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS (SRN AREAS). WILL SEE HIGHS SOME 25 DEG COOLER ON FRI DUE TO CAA AND CLOUD COVER. MOS LOWS LOOK TOO COLD TONIGHT ESP WHEN COMPARING TO RAW MODEL TEMPS WHICH TYPICALLY HANDLE FIRST CAA NIGHT BEHIND COLD FRONTS BETTER. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY NIGHT FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
305 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY CREST OVER THE AREA TODAY BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED.
259 AM PDT THU OCT 15 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. THIS LOW ALONG WITH A SUBSEQUENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RIGHT BEHIND IT WILL PROVIDE US WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER, DECREASING TEMPERATURES, AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. FOR TODAY, THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST WILL STEADILY MOVE INLAND AND CONTINUE TO KEEP INCREASED CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINING NEAR THE SIERRA FROM TAHOE SOUTHWARD, AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN WESTERN NEVADA.