Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AND COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND LOW PRESSURE RETROGRADING WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN CA BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK/INTO THE WEEKEND. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS DEVELOPING UPPER LOW CENTER.
410 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015 MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE C PLAINS WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ALONG THE NW GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING FROM THE S PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND FOR DRY WEATHER.
730 AM EST THU DEC 31 2015 LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD MOVES EAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS HIGH THEN BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DRY AND SEASONALLY COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A LARGE SCALE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO HOVERING AROUND FREEZING IN THAT AREA. THUS SOME FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DISTRICT THROUGH NEW YEARS DAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST.
653 AM EST THU DEC 31 2015 LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD MOVES EAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS HIGH THEN BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
702 AM EST THU DEC 31 2015 A BROAD WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY.
VALLEY TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN MERCED COUNTY AND WHEREVER SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY IN MADERA COUNTY AND FRESNO COUNTY THIS MORNING. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY PARKED OFF THE PAC NW COAST WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW RESIDES OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN CANADA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RETROGRADES INTO NORTHERN CA AND FORMS A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
630 AM EST THU DEC 31 2015 CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST TODAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.
AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A RTN TO CVS LINE MAY SEE CIGS BEGIN TO LOWER AGAIN INTO MVFR TO IFR LVLS AFTER ROUGHLY 21Z BEHIND A RATHER DIFFUSE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO USHER DENSE FREEZING FOG WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE WEST SOUTHWESTWARD TONIGHT WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO MANY CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LOCATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN AS FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT FROM DUNKEN NORTHEASTWARD TO SAN JON.
LIGHT RAIN WILL FAVOR THE COASTAL BEND AND COASTAL WATERS TODAY WHERE COAST AS COASTAL TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED. INSENTROPIC LIFT AND COASTAL TROUGH PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AS PW VALUES CREEP CLOSER TO 1. MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE ON FRIDAY AS REINFORCING SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE COAST WHERE TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. RE-ENFORCING SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S (COOLEST N/NW). IN THE LOWER 30S (RURAL AND LOW LYING AREAS NW PIEDMONT) TO MID/UPPER 30S (SE). -VINCENT A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
919 AM EST THU DEC 31 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY TODAY.
BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT WITH NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT WCTRL GA TO SE AL. SUPPORTING COLD FRONT SEWD MOVEMENT. GENTLE S TO SW WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
647 AM EST THU DEC 31 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY TODAY.
A COLD NORTHEASTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY AS AN ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WASHINGTON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY BY THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. FOR THIS MORNING HAVE KEPT PATCHY FREEZING FOG AND ISOLATED SNOW FLURRIES FROM CENTRAL OREGON AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON TO THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS WHERE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT.
429 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015 FREEZING FOG HAS DROPPED VISIBILITIES AROUND ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WITH SOME PLACES DROPPING BELOW ONE HALF MILE. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND BRING NORTHERLY WINDS AS WELL AS MAINTAINING CLOUDS. WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. ISENTROPIC UPLIFT AND MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC WILL ALLOW THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT.
THIS LOWER CLOUD COVER WILL LIFT AND BREAK UP INTO LATE MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES. WESTERN EXTENT OF DEEP ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER TODAY EVEN AS IT BEGINS A SLOW EASTWARD RETREAT INTO TONIGHT. VERY WARM CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S TODAY. LITTLE CHANGE THRU SUNSET AS A DEEP HI PRES RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC/E GOMEX MAINTAINS THESE FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS. A WEAK FRONTAL TROF EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE NE GOMEX WILL NUDGE ITS WAY E AND GRADUALLY ERODE THE WRN FLAK OF THE RIDGE. PGRAD NOT EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE TROF.
503 AM EST THU DEC 31 2015 SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. COLD FRONT REMAINS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH NETWORK WSR-88D RADARS CONTINUING TO SHOW EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE. OVERNIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH POPS SLOWLY DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S. COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING INTO THE EASTERN US.
1007 AM EST THU DEC 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
548 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015 Very little to talk about this morning as region remains under the influence of sfc ridging which extends into our area from the northwest.
But a clearing trend and plummeting temperatures across southern Canada suggests that subsidence (sinking air) associated with building high pressure is quickly taking hold behind this feature and will overspread the Northern Rockies throughout the day. This will lead to minimal warming later today and ultimately set the stage for very cold Friday morning low temperatures, not to mention the long anticipated development of freezing fog.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE COAST BEGINS TO FOLD OVER INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN IDAHO TODAY.
As temperatures slowly drop this morning, areas of freezing fog will be possible, especially for locations across the Big Country, although some freezing fog is possible farther south into the Concho Valley. Trends will be monitored this morning and this advisory may eventually need to be extended or a Freezing Fog Advisory may be necessary if freezing fog becomes more widespread.
As high pressure slides off to the east of the region today, short wave energy will push a warm front associated with a system over the plains eastward across the area.
255 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016 SPLIT FLOW INITIALLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH BECOMING DOMINATE AS WE GO THROUGH THE WORK WEEK BUT BY WEEKEND WE SEE DEEP UPPER LOWS AT BOTH ENDS OF THE CONTINENT.
like SPCs slight severe risk over southeast Kansas into portions of western Missouri as convection redevelops in advance of the approaching cold front later this afternoon. Seasonably cool conditions will prevail early in the work week followed by a warming trend as a wave digs into the desert southwest and a ridge builds across the plains.
The first is an UA trough coming ashore this morning over S CA. Winds will become gusty late this morning, especially across the higher terrain. The dryline will retreat into the Permian Basin this evening, but the greatest lift associated with the upper trough will pass well to our north.
127 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THRU THE EASTERN GRT LKS. WE WILL BE A TAD WARMER THAN TODAY. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE MID TO LOW LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL PRECEDE AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE 12Z TO 18Z IN THE LOWER SUSQ. MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FROM THE NW MTNS TO THE LOWER SUSQ AND MIN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL ONLY BE FREEZING OR LOWER ALONG THE NEW YORK BORDER. THOUGH SOME FREEZING RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW MTNS DEPENDING ON THE TIMING BUT IS MARGINAL AT BEST.
347 AM PDT SUN APR 10 2016 A low pressure system will bring showers to the north state thru the weekend with isolated thunderstorms possible. NorCal on the backside of a broad upper low centered over Socal and extending up into the Great Basin. The center of the low is forecast to shift east into Arizona today with decreasing precipitation across NorCal by midday.
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEK.
358 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016 WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MAN. CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST AND OPEN UP. ANOTHER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN SASK WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ON MON. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE. COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY.
651 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE AND A FRONT WILL RETURN MOISTURE QUICKLY BACK INTO PARTS OF THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH AND HEIGHTS RIDE OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY BUILD OVER CENTRAL NC FROM THE OH VALLEY AND WINDS ARE STEADILY BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM. THE HIGH WILL BE VERY PROGRESSIVE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE LOW MS VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL CROSS NC THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL PICK UP ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY/MID MS VALLEY. IN THE LOW-MID 70S.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON.
AND BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DESPITE THE THE COLD FRONT PASSING. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AND FEW SPOTS MAY BE WARMER.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE PATTERN TO REMAIN UNSETTLED ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AND BRINGS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED MOVING IN LATE IN THE DAY.
327 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE AND A FRONT WILL RETURN MOISTURE QUICKLY BACK INTO PARTS OF THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US. COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY BUT STILL OPPORTUNITY FOR DOWNSLOPE WARMING UNTIL MIDDAY FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.
UA ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK RIDGE CROSSING TX WITH ANOTHER LOW FURTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING SRN CA/NRN BAJA. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH ARCING NW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TOWARD ERN KS. LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ACRS TX AS THE UPR TROUGH ENTERING THE SW MOVES EAST TOWARD THE SRN ROCKIES. DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING.
TSRA chances will increase ahead of a cold front late this evening, especially after 06Z at the NE OK terminals and 09Z at the far NW AR terminals. A northern stream wave up near the Great Lakes will send a cold front south over the Plains. A dryline will extend south of the low. The event will come to an end by midnight Monday night as the cold front pushes south of the forecast area. Some cooler more tranquil weather will prevail midweek. A deep western CONUS trough is forecast by all of the numerical models late this week.
Near term models were all in good agreement with a surface cold front moving to the Oklahoma border between 21z Sunday and 00z Monday. At this time based on the location of this surface cold front at 00z Monday any storm that does develop is expected to be located along and south of the Oklahoma border in south central Kansas as well as east of Barber county. Early tonight the precipitation chances will expand across south central Kansas and even spread into western Kansas by midnight as moisture, warm air advection, and isentropic lift improves north of the cold front.
349 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SEWD AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION BY DAYBREAK.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S TODAY BUT MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION LINGERING AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. RANGING TO THE LOWER 70S IN SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IA. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT AND MONDAY KEEPING PRECIP SOUTH OF THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT COULD DROP TO FREEZING OR JUST BELOW FOR A FEW HOURS NORTHERN HALF. HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY FLOW GIVES US ANOTHER COOL AND BREEZY DAY MONDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD.
HOWEVER BULK OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT APPROACHES. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE CARRIED.
A northern stream wave up near the Great Lakes will send a cold front south over the Plains. A dryline will extend south of the low. The event will come to an end by midnight Monday night as the cold front pushes south of the forecast area. Some cooler more tranquil weather will prevail midweek. A deep western CONUS trough is forecast by all of the numerical models late this week.
636 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY.
WINDS WERE ALSO GUSTY DUE TO TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA ALONG THE BORDER AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST.
The cold front will move from northwest Missouri at 00Z down to near the I-70 corridor by 06Z. Carney Cold front will continue to track slowly through the area Monday. though the low level jet should be weakening somewhat as high pressure starts nosing into northwest Missouri. Rain should finally come to an end from northwest to southeast as this high pressure system pumps dry air into the Mississippi Valley. Remainder of the forecast still looks relatively cool and tranquil as a high amplitude blocking pattern develops over the CONUS.
IT MOVED SOUTHEAST AND EXITED THE LOWER KEYS. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO DROP TO THE LOW 70S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN COAST OF UNITED STATES THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE. WILL TILT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
Satellite imagery indicates low clouds were forming over the Lower Trans Pecos at 10/04Z, and spreading northwestward. Since low level winds are expected to veer to the south, if not southwest, overnight, will wait and see how much the low clouds fill in before including in area terminal forecasts.
314 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016 07z/2am surface analysis shows 1028mb high centered over the eastern Great Lakes into the Appalachians, while a warm front is draped from eastern Nebraska to Arkansas. As the high shifts further away from the region, the warm front will gradually lift into central Illinois today, triggering showers and a few thunderstorms. Aside from the rain chances, it will be a windy and warmer day. Cold front will settle southward into central Illinois tonight, bringing widespread rain. The front will drop south of the Ohio River Monday night, as Canadian high pressure builds in from the north. After that, high pressure will dominate the weather for the remainder of the extended.
346 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD OF TODAY WITH FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER EXPECTED. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH SUBTLE COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/WV TROUGH MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LATE AFTN STORMS.
A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL MIGRATE FURTHER EAST TODAY. MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LOW CENTER WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
AND MENTIONABLE CHC IS ANTICIPATED NORTH OF I 80 WHERE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MOIST ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY TONIGHT WITH A LLVL JET DVLPG AS THE MS VALLEY TROUGH/CDFNT SLIDE RAPIDLY EWD.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE SENT NORTH BY A STRONG UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
SO AT THIS TIME HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE I80 CORRIDOR AND DOWN TO THE COLORADO BORDER. THERE COULD BE A BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER DISCERNIBLE TREND IS THE MODEL ARE COMING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER WHICH MAKES THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LESS AND LESS LIKELY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WARMING IS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
454 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016 (Today and Tonight) The WV imagery was showing a well defined upper level low just of the southern CA coast. The low clouds will begin to break up this afternoon across at least the western 2/3 of the area. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s.
534 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016 A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING WARMER AIR. CDFNT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM TROF MOVG THROUGH THE UPR GRTLKS SHOULD BE EXITING OUR CWA MONDAY MORNING, HWVR, SRN STREAM SHRTWV EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE FROM THE SRN PLAINS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE DAY CAUSING FRONTAL RAIN SHIELD TO EXPAND BACK NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA, BUT PROBABLY NOT AS FAR NORTH AS NW PORTION OF OUR CWA. THIS RIDGE EXPECTED TO BECOME STNRY OVER THE GRTLKS TUE-SAT AS A STRONG SHRTWV DIGS INTO THE SWRN CONUS EVENTUALLY CUTTING OFF AND BUILDING DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE MS VALLEY/UPR GRTLKS. A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED 13-16Z BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTN/EVE.
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS TO BE MOVING INTO THE REGION A BIT MORE QUICKLY THAN PROGGED. COOLER AIRMASS. WITH COOLER TEMPS EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR A DEVELOPING DRYLINE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING HOURS ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPS TO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH SOME LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 50S ON MONDAY. WHERE THE WARMER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH BRINGING IN COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY AS A NEARLY ZONAL 500 MB FLOW PREVAILS OVERHEAD WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 322 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION TODAY. A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. THE WARM FRONT MOVES FARTHER NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
UPPER LVL LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL OPEN TO A TROUGH AS IS MOVES EASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. TODAY WILL BE WARMER WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LVL FLOW. BRINGING EVEN HIGHER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS MUCH OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND WESTWARD.
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA LINE. THE TEMPERATURE AT CHATTANOOGA IS STILL IN THE UPPER 30S AND SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK NEAR SUNRISE BUT THE OUTLYING AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WILL START THE DAY BELOW FREEZING. HIGH CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ALSO BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST OPENS UP TO A TROUGH AND MOVES SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS ON MONDAY FORCING A DRYLINE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO NEAR I-35.
Neither of these solutions seem indicative of strong/severe storms, so will continue to downplay the risk for this afternoon and evening as storms attempt to redevelop along a southeastward moving cold front. Precipitation chances will still be highest along our southeastern border where the cold front slows, moisture is the highest, and timing of the frontal passage is more coincident with upper forcing; however storms will likely still be elevated as the 700-850 hPa thermal ridge continues to bulge into the region. Rain and a few isolated storm chances will linger near the stalling frontal boundary in far southeastern portions of the CWA tonight and into early Monday, then drier, cooler air will push in and end any lingering precipitation chances by midday Monday.
356 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL OFFSHORE TONIGHT.