Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
It's a breezy and mostly sunny afternoon with highs expected to peak in the mid to upper 50s along the coast and up to the lows 70s in the more interior valleys.
Current radar is showing showers over the Blues headed NE into Wallowa and a few showers in the lower Basin. As the day progresses, the trough off of the PacNW coast will deepen and begin to split pushing more moisture into the SW portion of the CWA as well as the OR/WA Cascades. Highs will be in the 50s to 60s in the Basin and Central OR and 40s in the higher elevations.
Another beautiful day is on tap across the Tennessee Valley, with an area of high pressure promoting a clear sky and light winds once again. Winds will veer to the south, today which combined with the abundant sunshine will make for a warmer day today, with temperatures climbing into the upper 70s by the afternoon. A few locations across portions of the valley could creep into the lower 80s. Despite the higher moisture content, the upper level ridge will move into the area and should prevent any showers or precipitation from forming overnight. Lows will also be warmer tonight in the low to mid 50s for most locations. A warm front will lift northwards through the area on Friday and there are a few models that hint at a few light showers developing along this boundary.
323 PM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022 Fair weather will persist through early Friday as high pressure moves overhead and off the coast. A warm front will approach from the southwest Friday, resulting in increasing cloud cover and the threat for showers this weekend. High pressure that provided dry weather Thursday will move east and off the coast tonight. A warm front will approach from the southwest Friday introducing increasing cloudiness and the opportunity for late day showers. Friday is expected to be a day of variable, or increasing cloud cover as a warm front approaches from the southwest.
Guidance differs not necessarily on the general pattern, but the reach and strength of the high pressure.
High pressure to the north is building into the area today and will continue to build in and remain in place across the area through the period. The high center will shift offshore of the SE US and so our local winds will shift from the NE that they are now, to the east tonight and southeast by the weekend, with evening easterly surges for the next couple of nights, and afternoon sea breezes near the coast each day through the period. High pressure will continue to build in over the waters and remain in place through the period.
255 PM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022 Dry and cooler conditions will continue again today as high pressure remains over the area. High pressure centered to the north of the forecast area will continue to shift closer to the area this evening as winds decrease. Temperatures expected to be a few degrees warmer tonight than last night with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Southeasterly surface flow has begun this afternoon as the ridge of high pressure has become centered off to our northeast early this afternoon. It will also feel more like summer tomorrow as well, with temps able to rise into the low to mid 80s and dewpoints rising into the 60s.
We might even get a brief spin-up along the stationary boundary, especially with the low-shear environment. We could also stand a chance at some short-term near-critical fire weather issues in at least our Kansas counties as the dry air surges north ahead of the cold front. Cold front surges through and still a strong signal for near-high wind criteria wind gusts near 60 mph from the northwest, especially near and west of tri-cities.
1134 AM MDT Thu Apr 28 2022 18Z TAF CYCLE Increasing sw-wly winds aloft through 29/12Z then becoming nwly as an upper trough passes north of NM. Southwest flow aloft will trend up today, with a deepening lee side trough as an upper level trough races east from the west coast toward the Great Basin and Desert Southwest. Locally windy conditions will persist overnight as the upper level trough continues east toward the southern Rockies. Winds will pick up quickly on Friday as strong westerlies are steered over northern New Mexico with the upper level trough ejecting out of the Rockies and into the plains. Temperatures will drop a few degrees Friday given weak cold air advection with the trough passage, but will still be above normal most areas.
252 PM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022 An omega block will remain in place through the upcoming weekend, with an upper low parked east of New England and upper ridging slowly approaching from the Great Lakes.
High pressure will continue to slide eastward tonight and bring the low level flow from the east to the southeast through tomorrow.
The lower conditions at night are primarily due to clouds, but light patchy fog may bring the VSBY down to MVFR at times as well toward early Friday morning. In the low levels, breezier SE flow will keep PWATs around 1/4" above normal for late April, yet thermal profiles will become too hostile for precip thanks to a stronger EML from 850-700 mb.
Once the upper ridge amplifies overhead on Friday would expect any showers to end by Friday afternoon and much of the thicker cloudiness may dissipate as well. It will be a few degrees warmer Friday but winds will be a bit stronger too.
A dry reinforcing cold front will push south across the area before sunrise. Aside from some cirrus this morning, skies should remain sunny and highs are expected to reach the low-mid 70s for most locations, warmest across the SC Pee Dee region. High pressure will build south from the Great Lakes tonight providing light and slowly veering winds. Models have trended slightly drier here though and given that the mid level ridge axis is still nearby to our west that seems plausible.
We should see another decent rad cooling night tonight, but with warmer lower levels and some return flow underway, readings will hold in the lower/mid 50s. Friday will be warmer than today and a bit more moist in the low levels, but still relatively dry. These waves are expected to remain north of the area as the Lower Mississippi Valley will reside on the poleward side of flat upper ridging extending across the Gulf of Mexico. As the aforementioned waves pass by to our north, associated cold frontal boundaries will encroach on the area. The most likely scenario is no vis restrictions and some MVFR ceilings in the 14-16z time during the early morning as initial warming gets underway and initial mixing of the lower 0-2 kft distributes moisture sufficiently to support clouds.
The most likely scenario is no vis restrictions and some MVFR ceilings in the 14-16z time during the early morning as initial warming gets underway and initial mixing of the lower 0-2 kft distributes moisture sufficiently to support clouds. /CME/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: Today: Per 00Z UA & RAP analysis, low-level ridge axis is centered over TN Valley, with mean mid-level ridge axis further W. Efficient mixing is expected & based on how well the humidity mixed out yesterday into the low 20% RH, similar RH levels are anticipated today.
347 PM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022 A broad 1030 mb high pressure resides across the Great Lakes and Ontario today with a very dry airmass in place. An upper ridge axis will be moving into the western Great Lakes throughout today and is pulling warmer air into the forecast area compared to yesterday's very cold airmass. Though, the dry airmass will support another round of below freezing temperatures for tonight into tomorrow morning.
Dry weather will continue through Friday with high pressure in control of area weather. However, the high will shift off to the east and southerly flow will set up on Friday. Models have trended slightly drier here though and given that the mid level ridge axis is still nearby to our west that seems plausible.
Models prog ridging aloft behind the short wave tonight with drier mid/upper levels filtering across the area. With the drier airmass comes less clouds and warmer temps for Friday with highs in the mid 90s west to mid 80s east.
As of 07z, the lowest temps across the fcst area are at RAWS sites, Doe Lake and Baraga Plains at 14F and Stonington at 10F. Temps will trend up into the low/mid 50s F across portions of the w where se downsloping will aid warming. The Upper Great Lakes will remain under a progressive pattern through the extended, ridge, trough, ridge, trough.
Temperatures should be in the upper 70s to low 80s with overnight temperatures into the low 60s. Upper level ridging breaks down as a stacked low pressure system moves from the Plain states to the Upper Great Lakes.
314 PM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022 Cool high pressure will build over the area through late week. A warm front will move slowly north into the area over the weekend. Quiet and cool weather continues tonight as high pressure ridges in from the north. Favorable conditions for radiational cooling this evening and through much of the overnight justify lows on the cooler side of guidance, with a few locations inland possibly reaching into the upper 30s - still too warm and dry for frost.
Radar returns across central ND continue to advect east with short wave trough passing across the northern plains.
Mostly dry conditions tonight and on Friday with warmer temperatures. Discussion: The short term period will continue to be a quiet one as an area of high pressure continues to move off to the northeast while upper level heights begin to rise across the Tennessee Valley. Conditions should remain dry overnight with lows several degrees warmer than the previous night. On Friday, an upper level ridge is expected to build across the Tennessee Valley as an upper level disturbance digs into the plains. High pressure lifting northeast will allow low level winds to veer toward the southeast. This will not only advect warmer temperatures on Friday, but also increase dewpoints. Highs on Friday will be a few degrees warmer in the mid to upper 70s.
As it pulls away, a weak ridge builds over Deep South Texas as drier air returns to the region with mid-level RH values dropping back below 45%. However, an elevated mixed layer (EML), or warmer temperatures a few thousand feet above our heads, moves overhead and should limit rain coverage. Not a whole lot of change is expected for overnight temperatures with lows in the lower to middle 70s the next couple of nights. Daytime highs Friday should be a degree or two warmer than today due to some of the drier air mentioned above limiting cloud coverage and rain chances.
That cool start with dry advection and light wind as the high settles will support a radiative night, and overnight lows at, or below freezing are again anticipated.
Temperatures will be close to freezing across central Ohio, however at this time expect them to be just above freezing. Warmer temperatures will be in place for Friday with highs in the 60s.
Models are still very much at odds regarding the cap strength, but many of the high-res CAM solutions are developing isolated, strongly rotating storms along the dry line and moving them east across parts of NE OK. Later Friday night, a cold front will eventually overtake the dry line resulting in an increase in storm coverage. Much of the weekend still appears quiet as we remain on the cooler and more stable side of the front.
1248 PM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022 A dry and stable low level environment maintained within expanding high pressure ensures benign weather through tonight. Sprawling high pressure (1030 MB) established over the Great Lakes region/Ontario this morning providing optimal radiating conditions (outside of some high clouds earlier across the far southwest part of CWA/Lenawee county). The very cold airmass (also indicated by yesterday's daily record low 850 MB temp of -11 C per 12z DTX Raob) will be slowly moderating today and Friday (full/near full insolation allowing temps to rise into the 50s), with building upper level ridge axis moving over the Central Great Lakes on Friday night.
At this time, much of the area is in the low to mid 50s, with some still in the 40s! We also have a breezy east to southeast wind, which doesn't make these conditions any more pleasant. Weak upper ridging seen today will slowly push east, as a weak storm system makes its approach. With dense cloud cover and warm advection picking up through the night, temperatures will be quite mild, generally ranging in the low 50s. Weak boundary that has been sitting over our south for the last 24 hours will slowly push north and out of our area, as the low pressure ejects off of the Rockies and pulls a warm front north towards our area.
This will bring with it much warmer and drier air to west central Texas, with highs in the 90s and Relative Humidity values in the mid teens and single digits over our western most counties.
Even warmer temperatures are expected tomorrow as an upper ridge builds northward from the Gulf Coast.
High pressure will continue to build north of the region this afternoon with breezy winds 15-17 knots with gusts 24-28 knots at the coastal TAF sites KSSI,KCRG, KSGJ and also KJAX with slightly less wind at inland sites KVQQ and KGNV 12-14 knots gusting to 20 knots. Winds will gradually lighten after 02Z this evening and become easterly with only a few high clouds overnight as high pressure settles northeast of the region. Temperatures will be mild today with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s, cooler at the coast and warmer inland. Overnight lows tonight will range from the lower 50s in inland SE GA to the lower 60s in north central FL. Lows will be slightly warmer in the middle 60s along the coast.
407 PM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022 Low pressure will slowly move east across the Bay of Fundy through the overnight.
We should see another decent rad cooling night tonight, but with warmer lower levels and some return flow underway, readings will hold in the lower/mid 50s. Friday will be warmer than today and a bit more moist in the low levels, but still relatively dry. These waves are expected to remain north of the area as the Lower Mississippi Valley will reside on the poleward side of flat upper ridging extending across the Gulf of Mexico. As the aforementioned waves pass by to our north, associated cold frontal boundaries will encroach on the area.
1030 PM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022 An omega block will remain in place through the upcoming weekend, with an upper low parked east of New England and upper ridging slowly approaching from the Great Lakes.
It's a breezy and mostly sunny afternoon with highs expected to peak in the mid to upper 50s along the coast and up to the lows 70s in the more interior valleys. KSFO Bridge Approach.
High pressure situated north and northeast of the area will shift further southeast tonight keeping dry conds and the onshore flow going. High pressure will build to the north northeast through the night.
723 PM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022 Cool high pressure will build over the area through late week. A warm front will move slowly north into the area over the weekend. Quiet and cool weather continues tonight as high pressure ridges in from the north. Favorable conditions for radiational cooling this evening and through much of the overnight justify lows on the cooler side of guidance, with a few locations inland possibly reaching into the upper 30s - still too warm and dry for frost.
753 PM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022 Dry and cooler conditions will continue tonight. High pressure centered to the north of the forecast area will continue to shift closer to the area.
An upper level trough moving across the region will maintain a chance of showers in the forecast today.
By Friday morning, skies should be clearing briefly as high pressure builds in. In addition, there is a strong cold front associated with this wave.
1038 PM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022 Fair weather will persist through early Friday as high pressure moves off the coast. A warm front will approach from the southwest Friday, resulting in increasing cloud cover and the threat for showers this weekend.
This will support radiative cooling overnight, and lows at, or below freezing are anticipated. There is some uncertainty in whether southwestern portions of the region, particularly east-central OH and northern WV, will dip below freezing; clouds have been aggressive in their northward advance affiliated with a frontal system to the south. If these clouds do persist, they will limit cooling efficiency and result in warmer overnight lows.
High pressure NW of the area will ridge SE, imparting a weak onshore wind overnight. Dry weather will continue through Friday with high pressure in control of area weather. However, the high will shift off to the east and southerly flow will set up on Friday. Models have trended slightly drier here though and given that the mid level ridge axis is still nearby to our west that seems plausible.
705 PM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022 Cool high pressure will build over the area through late week. A warm front will move slowly north into the area over the weekend. Quiet and cool weather continues tonight as high pressure ridges in from the north. Favorable conditions for radiational cooling this evening and through much of the overnight justify lows on the cooler side of guidance, with a few locations inland possibly reaching into the upper 30s - still too warm and dry for frost.
746 PM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022 Fair weather will persist through early Friday as high pressure moves overhead and off the coast. A warm front will approach from the southwest Friday, resulting in increasing cloud cover and the threat for showers this weekend. High pressure that provided dry weather Thursday will move east and off the coast tonight. A warm front will approach from the southwest Friday introducing increasing cloudiness and the opportunity for late day showers. Friday is expected to be a day of variable, or increasing cloud cover as a warm front approaches from the southwest.
510 PM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022 An omega block will remain in place through the upcoming weekend, with an upper low parked east of New England and upper ridging slowly approaching from the Great Lakes.
525 PM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022 An omega block will remain in place through the upcoming weekend, with an upper low parked east of New England and upper ridging slowly approaching from the Great Lakes.
Temperatures are forecast to dip into the low to mid-30s across our central OH counties, with warmer temperatures near the mid to upper 40s around the Tristate. Warmer temperatures will be in place for Friday with highs in the 60s.
723 PM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022 An omega block will remain in place through the upcoming weekend, with an upper low parked east of New England and upper ridging slowly approaching from the Great Lakes.
Friday should be dry and warmer featuring highs in the low to middle 80s. Temperatures should be in the upper 70s to low 80s with overnight temperatures into the low 60s. Upper level ridging breaks down as a stacked low pressure system moves from the Plain states to the Upper Great Lakes.
Upper ridge will continue to build across the southern Appalachians the next 24 hours. Surface ridging will continue to move east of the area with return of southerly flow for Friday. Plenty of high and mid-level clouds will spill over the ridge across the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians. Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 81 59 82 62 / 0 10 10 30 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 79 58 81 62 / 0 10 20 30 40 Oak Ridge, TN 51 78 56 81 61 / 0 10 20 20 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 73 54 77 57 / 10 10 30 50 30.
A few tweaks were made to the rain chances for the rest of evening to shift the highest coverage closer to the west coast. VFR conditions are then expected to hold through early Friday afternoon, when another round of thunderstorms are expected to develop with the highest rain chances over southwest Florida near KRSW, KFMY, and KPGD. High pressure will continue to build in north of the waters through the rest of the week, with generally easterly flow continuing.
From synopsis, High pressure building over the western North Atlantic is creating light to gentle east to southeast.
1042 PM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022 Cool high pressure will build over the area through late week. A warm front will move slowly north into the area over the weekend. Winds continue to weaken with high pressure settling into the region this evening, and temps continue to steadily fall.
645 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022 Pressure falls continue over the northern and central High Plains this evening, in advance of a strong upper level trough moving into the Northern Rockies tonight.
1056 PM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022 An omega block will remain in place through the upcoming weekend, with an upper low parked east of New England and upper ridging slowly approaching from the Great Lakes.
727 PM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022 A dry and stable low level environment will persist into Friday as large high pressure remains positioned over/east of the area. High based clouds will skirt around this high tonight into Friday, but any cigs will be aoa 8-12kft. A broad 1030 mb high pressure resides across the Great Lakes and Ontario today with a very dry airmass in place. An upper ridge axis will be moving into the western Great Lakes throughout today and is pulling warmer air into the forecast area compared to yesterday's very cold airmass. Though, the dry airmass will support another round of below freezing temperatures for tonight into tomorrow morning.
Once the front passes later tonight, cooler but dry weather settles in.
High pressure over the eastern US will push offshore from the Carolina coast in the afternoon and continue to move eastward. Thus, the highest chances for precip (50-60 percent) will be across the Treasure Coast, with 20-40 percent from Titusville to Sanford southward.
Mostly dry conditions today with warmer temperatures. A chance of showers tonight northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia Discussion: The short term period continues to be quiet as an area of high pressure will move to the northeast while upper level heights rise across the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. Tonight the upper level ridging continues over the forecast area but a warm frontal boundary will be lifting north and give the northeast part of the area a little better chance of showers, about a 20 to 40 percent chance of a few showers.
An upper trough will continue to support showers overnight, although the coverage will decrease overnight as it continues to move eastward.
Large area of high pressure remains centered from Quebec and Eastern Ontario thru much of the Great Lakes region into the Mid Atlantic states early this morning. These clouds mark the far eastern edge of increasing moisture associated with developing low pressure over the Central Plains. low temps range from the lower 30s across our Eastern CWA where arrival of clouds will be delayed to the lower 40s in our far SW CWA where clouds will arrive during the evening.
305 AM EDT Fri Apr 29 2022 Dry weather is expected through Saturday under high pressure.
As a warm front will be draped north of middle TN there could be a few showers overnight in the CKV area. The lower atmosphere is quite dry so don/t really expect any precipitation to hit the ground. In response to the upper level system and the warm front mid and high clouds will be on the increase.
Dew points are into the 50s in our south and west, just ahead of a warm front that will move north through the course of the day today. Both the surface and parent upper Lows wind their way into IA by Saturday morning, with a trailing cold front across MO.
This will support radiative cooling overnight, and lows at, or below freezing are anticipated. There is some uncertainty in whether southwestern portions of the region, particularly east-central OH and northern WV, will dip below freezing; clouds have been aggressive in their northward advance affiliated with a frontal system to the south. If these clouds do persist, they will limit cooling efficiency and result in warmer overnight lows. High pressure is projected to slide slowly across the ern CONUS Friday and Saturday, thus maintaining dry and warmer weather across the Upr OH in advance of deep, Midwrn low pressure.