Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
639 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS INTO THE STATE TODAY HAS LED TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION. IT WILL START ACTIVE ON MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CASTS OFF A SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THE BROAD REGION OF ASCENT ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONTINUATION OF RIDGE AXIS NEARBY WILL RESULT IN GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS.
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO KS BY MON MORNING.
1158 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL PROMOTE CALM WIND FROM PTK SOUTHWARD AND ONLY ALLOW A FEW STREAMERS OF CIRRUS COVERAGE TONIGHT OVER ALL AREAS. TONIGHT LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING FULLY ENCOMPASSING SE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. STEADY STREAM OF SMOKE EMANATING FROM WILDFIRES ACROSS MAGNIFIED BY THE LACK OF STEERING FLOW WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE DOME. RIDGE AXIS TENDING TO EASE EASTWARD WITH TIME. NATIONAL WV IMAGERY REVEALS WELL-DEFINED TROUGH ANCHORED BY A CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTING FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO HUDSON BAY THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH A DECENT COVERAGE OF SMOKE MAY LINGER YET DURING THE MORNING BEFORE RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST.
41 UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON AND IS NOW LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN KY/WESTERN VA. AND IS CLOSEST TO THE FORCING PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LOW. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING.
A PERSISTENT WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SUNSHINE STATE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS.
736 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
952 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
/ISSUED 303 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/ FAIRLY QUIET MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMING ESTABLISHED TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK AS A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE UPPER 70S.
THEN A COLD FRONT BRINGING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES MONDAY MORNING. THEN FOCUS WILL TURN TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD BRING A CHANGE TO NORTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING TSRA CHANCES TO EACH SITE. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND THEN IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ON UP INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THIS COLD FRONT.
1146 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS INTO THE STATE TODAY HAS LED TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION. IT WILL START ACTIVE ON MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CASTS OFF A SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THE BROAD REGION OF ASCENT ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
/ISSUED 145 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/ Sub tropical ridge will remain over the area through the week. The center of the upper high was right over the area this morning and will drift down to Mexico and wander around there for the next couple of days. A closed low will move ashore the CA coast by the middle of the week but is not expected to displace the ridge. May see some stratus try to creep into the east again tomorrow morning and expecting a continuation of warmer lows.
/ISSUED 308 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015/ (Tonight and Tomorrow) The forecast area will remain dry through tonight while under a weak positively tilted upper level ridge centered in northern Mexico. As the upper ridge begins to break down tomorrow an area precipitation west of our area will begin expanding eastward. The remainder of the forecast area will continue to by dry with afternoon highs in the lower to mid 90s after Monday morning lows in the lower 70s.
UPPER LOW DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH DEEP MOISTURE MAKING ITS WAY NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE. WOULD EXPECT AN MVFR CEILING WITH SOME MVFR CATEGORY FOG AT THE TERMINALS AROUND 07-13Z AS THE LOW LEVELS BECOME SATURATED LATE TONIGHT.
LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND 70, A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
MEANWHILE A CDFNT HAS JUST MOVED THRU CYS WITH COOLER AIR BEHIND IT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS DUE TO THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH IN NORTHWEST COLORADO AND A MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WE STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AND SPREAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EAST. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT WE WILL HAVE SOME SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPING BEHIND THE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD SOUTH FROM WYOMING THIS EVENING.
1202 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVERNIGHT.
THE EASTERN PENNYRILE AREA OF WEST KENTUCKY AND IN FAVORED PROTECTED AREA OF CROWLEY'S RIDGE AND THE SHAWNEE HILLS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER MONDAY NIGHT/TUE. WE CAN EXPECT MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING TROF.
749 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 WARM BUT INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS SLOWLY PUSHING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING. WITH LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES POTENTIALLY INTERACTING WITH THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WARMER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
949 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT.
853 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. SHOULD START A DRYING TREND OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF MONTANA BUT HEIGHTS ARE SLOW TO REBOUND TONIGHT SO STILL THINK SOME CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
746 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS IT PASSES OVER.
/ISSUED 420 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/ A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WAS LIFTING NEWD INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BUT THE TROUGH AXIS TRAILED SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE NRN COAST OF THE GULF OF MX. THE HIGH INSTABILITY HAS LED TO SOME TALL STORMS AND ROBUST UPDRAFTS. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AREA WARM AND DRY FOR MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE SERN CONUS WHILE A BROAD TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER SW TX WHILE A COLD FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
Guidance is not calling for dense fog at this point, perhaps because of lingering moisture in the low levels that could generate some cloud cover. Southwesterly flow will set up tomorrow ahead of a cold front which will begin to approach the region tomorrow night. Rain chances will be on the increase late Monday night as the cold front nears from the northwest.
740 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON AND IS NOW LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN KY/WESTERN VA. AND IS CLOSEST TO THE FORCING PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LOW. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING.
922 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST STATES KEPT A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MID- LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGHER MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE COAST AND MOVES INLAND THROUGH FRI.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK. A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS RESIDES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS EVENING.
WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP ACROSS THE CONUS FEATURES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE JET STREAM LIES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. WHILE MOISTURE IS DRIVEN UP AND OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AS LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEGUN TO SLOW FROPA DOWN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE.
CONVECTION BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED ACROSS N CENTRAL MN AND ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WAS CURRENTLY FROM SOUTHEASTERN ND TO RIGHT NEAR FARGO UP INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST VALUES ARE STILL ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW AS STORMS REDEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT BEFORE IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF OUR AREA. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR A WHILE OVERNIGHT. ONLY A FEW OF THE MODELS HAVE SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING IN THE WEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN TROUGH. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.
931 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE EAST ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AT MID LEVELS WHILE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. A LARGE RIDGE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE IN OUR REGION THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW WILL DRAW MOISTURE IN ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS THIS LOW APPROACHES. THE MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW (WHICH WAS LOCATED NEAR 33N 133W AT 9Z) VERY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST AND THEN OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY THE END OF THIS WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE EACH DAY WHILE THE UPPER LOW SPINS OFF THE CENTRAL COAST OF CA.
752 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION MONDAY.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY SKY COVER MAKING IT THROUGH WEAK BUT EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. TONIGHT LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING FULLY ENCOMPASSING SE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. STEADY STREAM OF SMOKE EMANATING FROM WILDFIRES ACROSS MAGNIFIED BY THE LACK OF STEERING FLOW WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE DOME. RIDGE AXIS TENDING TO EASE EASTWARD WITH TIME. NATIONAL WV IMAGERY REVEALS WELL-DEFINED TROUGH ANCHORED BY A CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTING FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO HUDSON BAY THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH A DECENT COVERAGE OF SMOKE MAY LINGER YET DURING THE MORNING BEFORE RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH ACROSSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.
744 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE EAST ON MONDAY.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MONTANA SWEEPS SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA BENEATH A GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY 18Z MONDAY.
PESKY UPPER LOW, THAT WASHED OUT SOME OF OUR JULY 4TH FIREWORKS, CONTINUES TO PULL OFF SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST.
SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. PESKY UPPER LOW, THAT WASHED OUT SOME OF OUR JULY 4TH FIREWORKS, CONTINUES TO PULL OFF SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST.
530 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015 CLASSIC MONSOON PATTERN FEATURING HIGH PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST HAS BROUGHT DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREA. LIMITED INSOLATION DUE TO CLOUDS COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD INHIBIT STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING. PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN TROUGH WILL CAUSE FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE WEST.
THEN FOCUS WILL TURN TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD BRING A CHANGE TO NORTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING TSRA CHANCES TO EACH SITE. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND THEN IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ON UP INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THIS COLD FRONT.
TOMORROW, THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION, BUT WILL LEAVE POP'S OUT OF THE TAF'S FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY. /ISSUED 329 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/ POTENT CLOSED UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CHURNING ITS WAY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. UNFORTUNATELY IMPACTS FROM THE CURRENT TROUGH AND YET ANOTHER MOVING IN WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES IN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK ON MONDAY.
1049 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THROUGH TONIGHT.
659 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP ACROSS THE CONUS FEATURES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE JET STREAM LIES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. WHILE MOISTURE IS DRIVEN UP AND OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AS LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEGUN TO SLOW FROPA DOWN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE.
1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 WARM BUT INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
1050 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS IT PASSES OVER.
1135 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015 Some weak convection has developed across southwestern Missouri along an area of weak convergence in the lower atmosphere. Additional activity is ongoing across northern Arkansas in the higher terrain. More pop-up showers and thunderstorms will then be possible on Monday as a weak short wave trough pushes across the area. A cold front will then push southeast into portions of extreme southeastern Kansas and west-central Missouri Monday evening.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND COOLER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. IN MOST CASES TEMPERATURES ENDED UP BEING COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH MANY INLAND SPOTS ONLY GETTING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WHICH IS A DROP OF UP TO 13 DEGREES. THE WARMER THAN NORMAL SEA TEMPS WILL HELP TO KEEP COASTAL SPOTS FAIRLY MILD AT NIGHT.
711 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. SATL AND REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOW UPPER LOW OVR EASTERN KY EARLY THIS EVENING. TO NR 70F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND SWING INTO THE REGION MONDAY. INSTABILITY AND FORCING INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH. I LEANED CLOSER TO SREF AND GEFS POPS WHICH HAVE THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MOST AREAS GETTING WET DURING THE DAY.
647 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015 Some weak convection has developed across southwestern Missouri along an area of weak convergence in the lower atmosphere. Additional activity is ongoing across northern Arkansas in the higher terrain. More pop-up showers and thunderstorms will then be possible on Monday as a weak short wave trough pushes across the area. A cold front will then push southeast into portions of extreme southeastern Kansas and west-central Missouri Monday evening.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER MONDAY NIGHT/TUE. WE CAN EXPECT MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING TROF.
THIS NARROW MOIST LAYER MAY ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF SOME MVFR CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL NOCTURNAL INVERSION FORMS.
UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH PUSHED A TROUGH ACROSS THE SE PRODUCING THE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG CONVECTION EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO THE AREA.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIFTED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 68 88 70 90 / 30 30 20 40 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 66 86 69 88 / 50 30 20 40 OAK RIDGE, TN 67 87 69 88 / 40 30 20 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 65 83 64 86 / 80 40 20 40 TN.
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES IN PROXIMITY TO AN AGGRESSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS. WITH WARMER TEMPS PREVAILING WEST OF THE BOUNDARY.
MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE BUILDING WHILE LIGHT FLOW FROM THE GULF CONTINUES BELOW THE INVERSION. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AT MID LEVELS WHILE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. A LARGE RIDGE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE IN OUR REGION THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR BTWN 09Z-12Z DEPENDING ON WHETHER THE LOW CIGS ARE ENOUGH TO HINDER LOWER VIS.
1034 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION MONDAY.
Soundings show deep mixing through the afternoon with a tight pressure gradient as the low pressure over Wisconsin continues to deepen. The pressure gradient relaxes some after 2-3pm, west to east so the bulk of the highest winds will probably be for the next several hours. Cold front is currently making its way across southern Indiana and central Kentucky, just reaching the I-65 corridor at 07Z. Nocturnal cooling will be limited tonight as the winds stay up, with Thursday looking fairly similar to today, only a bit less breezy and a few degrees cooler.
THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING IS NOW IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTH ALABAMA.
THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOG/DRIZZLE HANGING AROUND THIS MORNING AS WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. ALSO UPDATED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER DUE TO THE EXPANSIVE CLOUD/FOG/DRIZZLE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION BEHIND RETREATING WARM FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THROUGH THE PERIOD ANOTHER TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS AND ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA. COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS IN ADDITION TO PATCHY FOG OVER LAND.
COLD FRONT ALONG A LAREDO TO COTULLA TO COLUMBUS LINE WAS DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH.
BLOCKING PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO SET UP. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST BUT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE EXTENDING BACK INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA TODAY. AND EVEN WITH COOLER 925MB TEMPS COMING IN THE SFC READINGS WILL STAY FAIRLY STEADY AND NOT TAKE A NOSEDIVE. THE INVERTED TROUGH CONTINUES AND WILL SHIFT FURTHER BACK TO THE WEST. BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORY GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND THE SLOW DOWN OF THE SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD SEE SOME DECENT COOLING LATER TONIGHT AND THINK THAT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD BE BELOW FREEZING BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS OFF THE WEST COAST NEAR 130- 140W AND A WEAK UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SPUR EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO MOVE EWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW/GREAT BASIN/CALIFORNIA REGION FRI. THE WEAK UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ON SAT IS DEPICTED TO EXTEND GENERALLY FROM SRN CALIFORNIA NWD INTO IDAHO. AND THE WEAK UPPER LOW IF DEPICTED TO BE OVER SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA.
933 AM PDT WED MAR 16 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
However, MVFR, if not IFR, conditions could affect KMAF after 17/06Z ahead of a cold front. Will forego inclusion of the lower ceilings/ visibility this forecast since they will occur near the end of the forecast period, and may not occur at all if the front proves faster than the latest data suggests. /issued 434 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016/ An upper trough is currently over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest resulting in westerly flow over the CWA. Temperatures on Thursday will cool to near normal values as a cold front moves through the area during the day.
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL VEER THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR TAF SITES. /ISSUED 340 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016/ THE COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS YESTERDAY HAS REACHED THE UPPER TX COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL ALREADY BE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AND THE FRONT WILL START TO RETREAT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
By tonight, a weak cold front will begin to push towards the area, reaching the I-20 corridor from Sweetwater to Abilene after midnight and to near a San Angelo to Brownwood line by sunrise.
SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR WERE ALREADY GUSTING AROUND 40 MPH. SOME WEAK ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW COULD SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS ALONG HIGHWAY 20 DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TIGHT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY DAY. THIS SHOULD BE A COOLER DAY WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ALONG HIGHWAY 20 TO THE MID 50S FAR SOUTH.
/ISSUED 358 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE MOST RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT IN TEXAS ALONG A BEAUMONT TO EDNA TO EAGLE PASS LINE.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL DEFINITELY BE EAST OF I-35 BUT AS THE LOW PULLS OFF AND GRADIENT TAKES ON MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION STRONGEST WINDS MAY EXTEND MORE TOWARDS FORT DODGE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA. THIS PROCESS WILL SWING A TROUGH SOUTH INTO IOWA AND BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE STATE.
This will also likely keep temperatures a few degree cooler than previously forecast.
Pronounced surface pressure gradient around the low will result in 25-30 mph sustained westerly winds. much less warm today with highs ranging from 58 in Galesburg to 65 in Lawrenceville following yesterday evening's cold front. Cooler lows tonight in the upper 30s north of I-72 and lower 40s south of I-72. Strong cutoff low pressure over northern MI tonight will start shifting eastward across the eastern Great Lakes later Thu and Thu night. Highs Thu range from lower 50s from Peoria north to the lower 60s in southeast IL from I-70 south. WNW winds diminish to around 10 mph Thu night as Canadian high pressure noses se toward IL.
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE STATE RIGHT NOW WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NOTING NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING PREVALENT ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A JET STREAK WAS DEPICTED BY MOST NUMERICAL MODELS OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI WHILE A TROF AT 500 MB EXTENDED FROM NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.