Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As the low pressure area moves east of the state by late afternoon/early evening, the chances of showers and storms should dissipate across most of the area. Overnight lows will be cooler than past several days as cooler air advects into the region from the northwest. Seemingly endless parade of upper lows to continue over the next several days. Upper level trough currently coming onto the Pacific Northwest coast will deepen and cut off over Nevada this afternoon, with the low slowly weakening after passing the Four Corners region.
344 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a closed low over central Kansas with a trough extending south into northern Mexico. Downstream of this feature, low amplitude ridging extended from northern Georgia into the LP of Michigan. West of the closed low, A ridge of high pressure extended from Utah into Wyoming. West of this ridge, a trough of low pressure was present off the coast of Washington and Oregon. At the surface, low pressure was present over eastern Kansas. A warm front extended east of the low with a cold front extending south of this low into eastern Texas. For tonight, an upper level trough of low pressure will track across Nevada, closing off over the four corners by 12z Friday.
311 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017 The low pressure center that brought scattered storms to the area last night will make its way slowly across the Ozarks region during the day today. As the low tracks over the area, scattered showers are expected to occur through the morning and into this afternoon. The low will keep the region under cloudy skies and have knocked high temperatures for today down as a result of the combination of precipitation and cloud cover. The low will track east of the area tonight bringing the rain chances to an end for a few days. Temperatures will fall into the lower 40s as skies slowly clear.
An upper level low pressure system moving on shore over central Oregon early this morning will dig south into Nevada by this afternoon. At the same time a mid-level circulation will develop north of the main upper low, bringing with it an area of heavier precipitation. Tonight cooler air will be brought into the Northern Rockies via persistent easterly flow aloft. And steady drying throughout the atmosphere will gradually end showers by Friday morning and the sky start to clear in response to developing high pressure.
The deep upper closed low over the southern plains will be the weather maker south of the northland the next couple of days. A ridge of high pressure originating over Hudson Bay has been building into northwest MN where clearing has been occurring. Expect this high to aid in overnight clearing across at least northeast MN and maybe far northwestern WI. But the low to south will keep clouds lingering over much of the rest of northwest WI.
1209 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017 Water vapor imagery clearly illustrates the upper low rotating over central/eastern Oklahoma this afternoon, with ample moisture streaming northward into the area. Temperatures will lower into the low/mid 30s tonight, with lower 40s to lower 50s common for highs. Lingering clouds across the southeast one half of MPX forecast area should remain due to moisture/cyclonic flow from the departing upper low. Slowly, as the system departs Friday/Friday night, a ridge of high pressure will provide a couple of days of dry and mostly sunny conditions.
630 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 A warm front lifts through today, followed by a cold front tonight into Friday.
229 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017 Most of the area will be dry and mild today with an upper level ridge centered on North Dakota through the early afternoon. By the afternoon hours rain showers may develop across western North Dakota as the ridge flattens out and pushes east and an upper level wave approaches. Temperatures today should be similar to or slightly cooler than yesterday.
/issued 450 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017/ High pressure continues to bring quiet, dry weather to South Florida tonight through Friday morning. On Friday, a cold front will move into the area. Once the front goes through, high pressure will rebuild over the area.
500 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 Scattered showers across the area will become more numerous this morning as a low pressure system approaches from the Southern Plains. Thunderstorms are also possible as the low moves through. Showers will taper off from west to east Friday as the low departs.
WV imagery indicates a strong closed off upper level low moving slowly east across the plains of eastern Kansas. Near the surface, a strong area of low pressure is shifting slowly east across eastern Kansas as well. As for temperatures, lows tonight look to range from around freezing across west central Kansas to low 40s across south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow look to range from the low 50s across central Kansas to mid 60s across far southwestern Kansas. One upper level low will move over Kansas with the other sliding well south into the Southern Plains.
A cold front is currently pushing off the Middle Texas Coast as of writing with NW surface winds developing in its wake. Some mid and upper level cloudiness /associated with an approaching H5 trough axis and 105kt H25 jet currently overhead/ are expected to persist through much of the morning with clearing skies this afternoon as the upper level jet shifts east and the H5 trough axis pushes through. Continued low humidity and cooler temps than Wed /still in the 80s this afternoon across many areas/ should make today feel rather nice. Breezy to windy conditions are expected during the day along with significantly warmer temps.
Upper trough currently moving inland from the Pacific will dig south today into the desert southwest and become a closed low this evening over either southern Nevada or northern Arizona. Southwest to southerly flow aloft ahead of this trough will extend into Montana today and tonight bringing moisture into the state.
/issued 213 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017/ Looks like above normal temperatures are in the offing Thursday and Friday as surface lee troughing and low level thermal ridging develop ahead of the next Pacific upper level storm system. As the upper low approaches Friday afternoon high winds will be possible in the Guadalupe Mountains.
Showers are continuing this morning behind the departing cold front. Showers should taper off through the day and come to an end by this evening as high pressure builds into the region. The front itself was not a major wind producer, but high pressure to our north and west and low pressure to the south and east will produce a tightened gradient, and cold air will spill into the region. Clearer skies and a cooler air mass are expected to produce cold morning lows Friday, and frost is possible in the West Side valleys.
Severe potentially damaging winds later today and this evening For today a deep low pressure trough moving across the Great Basin will bring strong and potentially damaging west winds to the mountains and deserts. Cooler Friday behind the trough with winds shifting to the northeast.
SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): A weak cold front will move through the CWA this morning reinforcing the drier air across the western portions as well as bring slightly cooler air into the area as high pressure builds across deep south Texas in the wake of the front. Isolated convection across northeast Mexico may approach the extreme southeast portions of the CWA this morning before the front moves through but rain chances will be confined to offshore waters of the lower TX coast this morning. Some patchy fog may develop across the lower Rio Grande valley late tonight into early Friday morning.
343 AM MST Thu Mar 30 2017 A strong low pressure system will produce windy conditions today along with much cooler temperatures Friday.
Expect to see a mix of clouds and sun today, with highs just a little cooler than yesterday. Bigger effect will be more cloud cover in the west and therefore a little cooler temps there too.
Upper level ridging ahead of a strong trough should keep most of us warm and dry on Thursday, although increasing mid and high level clouds may temper our forecast highs just a bit.
The cold front which is noted this morning moving into the northwest portions of the area and approaching BPT.
And we could see a few readings near freezing before daybreak. Temperatures will be warmer tonight, with lows mainly in the 40s.
The upper low responsible for the precipitation has been moving through Kansas today and will continue through the night. As the low moves further to the east, the precipitation should become a little more spotty during the evening. The next upper level low will start to affect the area Friday night.
414 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 A warm front lifts through today, followed by a cold front Thursday night and Friday.
310 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 A strong low pressure system is marching northeastward across the Central Mississippi Valley with a frontal zone stretching from Iowa to the mouth of the Mississippi River. High pressure is sliding east of South Florida ahead of the approaching front. As the low pressure over the Mississippi Valley moves to the northeast today, expect the high pressure currently off the east coast of Florida, to move further to the east, while the pressure gradient builds on the western flank of this ridge. The low will continue to march through New England today like Washington and Rochambeau.
Weak high pressure will remain over the area for the next 24 hours, keeping conditions dry across the region. Will start off Thursday night with a 500mb ridge temporarily in place, squeezed between lows across NV and MO.
The low centered over southern Kansas will continue to pull away to the northeast tonight. The northern TX and OK Panhandle will likely clear out last as the center of the low will still remain fairly close in proximity tonight. Winds will be out of the south and will draw up warmer air. NAM model is not as aggressive with the the warmer air, and in fact, keeps the OK Panhandle quite cool on Friday.
Today a cold front will move off of the coast this morning. Cooler and drier conditions will affect the forecast area behind the front with near normal high temperatures expected.
This trof will kick the KS low to the E while the ridge moves overhead today and tonight. the upstream trof will dig today. Surface: Occluding 1001 mb low pres was over Ern KS with its associated warm and cold front well E and S of the FA. This high will gradually increase its influence over the FA into tonight.
Early this afternoon, an area of low pressure was located just south of Wichita, with a warm front lifting north through southwestern Missouri. We will need to be especially mindful this afternoon of the position of the surface warm front, as the tornado threat will be maximized with any supercell that is able to move parallel to the boundary.
414 AM MDT Thu Mar 30 2017 Upper high pressure ridge over Colorado early this morning but will be shifting east into the central plains tonight. Despite the ridge, moisture is already advecting into the the mountains and western colorado while stratus deck looms just east of the Colorado/Kansas border. Warmer across the plains today with readings back up into the 60s. As the upper low moves closer to Colorado late today expect increasing ascent as noted in layered QG fields for later this afternoon and tonight. With this flow expect a denver cyclone to also develop after midnight tonight with possible stratus/fog over the Denver area and points north to the Wyoming border.
08z Thu water vapor imagery easily picking up upper level low spinning over northeastern Kansas and slowly propagating to the northeast. Additionally, water vapor imagery picking up on a longwave trough coming onshore along the Pacific coast and digging its way through California. This trough is progged to strengthen into a closed low by Thursday night and will help push our Kansas upper low east of the region. As the core of the low propagates across north-central Missouri, best band of 950- 800mb frontogenetical forcing and instability axis will remain in Missouri, perhaps barely clipping our far southern/SE CWA between 15z and 18z today.
Evening update: Steady rains have ended with the passage of the cold front. Satellite reveals a deep cold core trof moving inland. Breezy SW winds blowing into this higher terrain looks to be the main source of lift yet satellite and radar also reveal a vort max drifting through Lincoln County at this hour which brought passing showers to Ephrata earlier. /sb 06Z TAFS: An upper-level trof is ushering a cold front through the region at this hour resulting in showers across the eastern terminals.
326 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017 Upper closed low was positioned across eastern Kansas this morning with dry slot evident in water vapor imagery extending from east Texas north into western Missouri. A few showers will be possible across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as the low moves east. The trough will take a dive into the Great Basin before moving over the Southern Rockies and ejecting out onto the Southern Plains this weekend.
forecast confidence is high: Low pressure will slowly move by to the south today and tonight, bringing continued rain to southern Wisconsin. Models then show another round of steady rain moving in mid to late afternoon, with the highest amounts occurring in the eastern forecast area. Highs will be on the order of 10 degrees below normal today, which will feel even cooler when you factor in the rain and breezy east winds. Winds will continue to be brisk out of the north-northeast, so high temperatures in southeast WI will only be in the lower 40s.
WOW! This storm continues to show an impressive upper low spinning over Kansas, with a dry sloT positioned from south central Iowa through much of Missouri and Arkansas as of 2 AM. Temperatures should remain in the 40s to low 50s today, as the air will remain close the wetbulb temp, and any rise will be due to the low moving up closer to our southern counties. By late morning, a transition from strong east winds to lesser north winds is anticipated as the low moves into central Illinois. Models are split on whether mid level moisture will be sufficient for light rain on the back side of the low, this could either be spotty light rain or drizzle.
318 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017 Upper ridging looks to develop overhead today and with modest southwest winds returning at the surface, a considerable warmup is expected today with highs generally in the 80s. We could have some weak upper forcing available from the approaching upper low so there may be potential for one or two late night thunderstorms.
A cold front located ovr WRN AR will eventually push EWD thru the rest of the state by midday. Latest surface analysis indicates low pressure centered to the east of Wichita. A warm front extends from the low center, southeast to just north of Batesville. Expected western portions of the warm front to be first to focus convective development, with development along the dry line nextas it accerlerates eastward. Some precipitation will affect mainly northern areas during the day on Thursday, in association with the slow moving upper low now over Kansas.
622 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 Showers and thunderstorms are expected in the area today and tonight as a low pressure system approaches from the Southern Plains. Showers will taper off from west to east Friday as the low departs.
The low pressure center that brought scattered storms to the area last night will make its way slowly across the Ozarks region during the day today. As the low tracks over the area, scattered showers are expected to occur through the morning and into this afternoon. The low will keep the region under cloudy skies and have knocked high temperatures for today down as a result of the combination of precipitation and cloud cover. The low will track east of the area tonight bringing the rain chances to an end for a few days. Temperatures will fall into the lower 40s as skies slowly clear.
402 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 Today-Tonight: One more relatively quiet day across South Florida as the ridging at the surface and aloft begin to break down.
A long wave trough will move across the two state area with clouds and showers expected today. As the trough moves across the region this afternoon. A dry ridge of high pressure will dominate our entire areas weather into Friday.
354 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 Another warm, dry day expected across the area as high pressure remains in control of our weather. Overall, there should be enough suppression from the ridge to keep rainfall out of the forecast once again. Temperatures will remain on the warm side with middle to upper 80s expected, a bit cooler at the coast courtesy of the seabreeze. On Friday, a mid/upper level trough will dig into the SE U. Progressive pattern continues with upper low over the NE US moves into the Western Atlantic as upper ridging builds from the N Carib through the region.
330 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017 An upper level trough extended from far western Lake Superior to a low centered in Kansas early this morning. In the lower levels, a ridge of high pressure was over much of northern Minnesota. As this upper trough moves through Wisconsin today, there will be a chance for light precipitation over mainly portions of Price, Sawyer, and Iron Counties. We don't expect the lake breeze to be quite as strong as yesterday but it will still keep lakeside areas cooler. The upper trough will depart tonight and clouds will gradually decrease through the night. High pressure will keep the Northland dry on Friday under partly to mostly sunny skies. Highs will range from the lower forties close to the lake to the upper forties to mid fifties elsewhere.
This will also have an impact on temperatures today, with cloudy areas staying cooler than non-cloudy areas. MaxT grid for today reflects this, with warmest temps around 60 degrees in north central SD, and cooler readings in the upper 40s in the Watertown area. Temps overall today look to be a few degrees cooler than yesterday.
411 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 Wrapped-up low pressure will bring rain showers to the upper Ohio Valley late today through Friday. Much of the region should remain dry until late with the exception of the counties north of I-80, where moisture spilling over the ridge and isentropic ascent support some rain showers by mid morning through the afternoon. Better support for rain is expected tonight as the filling low pressure system takes on a slight negative tilt, supporting an area of diffluence and upper level lift over the region in most of the deterministic guidance. Rain showers will continue early Friday as the upper low moves overhead.
Short term models are in pretty good agreement that redevelopment of thunderstorms will occur along the cold front roughly around 1-2 PM CDT.
348 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017 The deep cyclone centered over eastern Kansas this morning will continue to move away today. Friday will be warmer, with winds turning to southeast and increasing again, in advance of the next storm system.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST TODAY AS MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TONIGHT (STILL MVFR) AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS WINDS RELAX AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
555 AM MST Thu Nov 24 2016 Updated forecast to cancel Freezing Fog Advisory and issue Dense Fog Advisory. Latest obs showing temps for the most part above freezing. There still could be a few isolated spots below freezing for the next hour or so. but overall trend is go above freezing as morning progresses.
512 AM CST Thu Nov 24 2016 Showers associated with a passing cold front have come to an end across central Illinois early this morning: however, cloud cover continues to blanket the area. As a result, have gone with a cloudy forecast today with chilly highs in the lower to middle 40s. A vigorous wave apparent on water vapor imagery near the Aleutian Islands will pivot S/SE around a deep upper low anchored off the coast of British Columbia.
Weak high pressure will lead to dry conditions and locally breezy north winds through this afternoon.
/Issued 434 AM CST Thu Nov 24 2016/ A short wave trough will push across the Panhandles today and usher in a cold front from northwest to southeast by mid to late morning and then continuing through the afternoon hours. Lack of any low and mid level moisture will preclude any precipitation with the front and upper trough.
522 AM EST Thu Nov 24 2016 High pressure will crest over the region today and move east tonight. Low pressure will approach from the west Friday.
an upper level trough extended from Alberta across eastern MT and WY. However in eastern ND, winds were northeasterly in response to the departing low pressure system over the Great Lakes. and there is a threat of light freezing drizzle.
832 AM MST Thu Nov 24 2016 Let the High Wind Warning expire on I-80 Summit this morning. The main concern today is the high wind and snow potential this morning mainly between Laramie and Rawlins. As a result, we have decided to cancel the high wind warning and issue and winter weather advisory instead since the visibility continues to be near a quarter of a mile and wind speeds are around 30 to 40 mph. Tonight-Friday night: The upper level ridge is expected to build over the area and allow for moderating temperatures.
/Issued 337 AM EST Thu Nov 24 2016/ For the first time in a while, a pronounced low level southerly flow ahead of weak surface-850mb trough exists across north/central Georgia.
441 AM MST Thu Nov 24 2016 The main concern today is the high wind and snow potential this morning mainly between Laramie and Rawlins. As a result, we have decided to cancel the high wind warning and issue and winter weather advisory instead since the visibility continues to be near a quarter of a mile and wind speeds are around 30 to 40 mph. Tonight-Friday night: The upper level ridge is expected to build over the area and allow for moderating temperatures.
Weak high pressure will build over the region through Friday and provide dry weather.
Isolated/scattered showers will persist over coastal locations where moisture is deepest and sfc warm front is expected to stall this afternoon. Patcy fog is also possible as winds relax ahead of the next cold front.
Latest radar imagery shows the back edge of shower activity associated with a warm front lifting up across the forecast area over eastern Ohio. Have included mention of patchy drizzle through the period behind the front given the progged depth of the low level saturated layer.
Not alot of variance in the model lows tonight, however MOS products are generally cooler in the teens across the higher elevation far western counties. Between the ECMWF and GFS there appears to be a general agreement on a large trough developing in the west, and a closed low most likely to move into the Northern Plains around the end of the weekend. This won't rule out our area for seeing clouds and even a possibility for precipitation, however the main forcing mechanisms near the warm front would be too far north in the upper midwest with these model runs.
A cold front will move south into the region tonight with winds shifting to the north behind it and becoming gusty after 25/02Z north, and 25/06Z south. enjoy the sunshine and warm temperatures! An upper level trof will move across the the Central Plains today. In its wake a cold front will drop south thru the CWA tonight and Friday. Have opted to continue the High Wind Watch at Guadalupe Pass for this evening thru Friday morning for gap winds as the front moves thru. Have kept it cooler than the different MOS guidances due to cloud cover and colder airmass. Dry weather will be the rule for the upcoming busy travel weekend with ridging overhead.