Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
555 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016 A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WISCONSIN WILL LEAD TO AN INTERESTING WEATHER WITH A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO THE LOWER 30S BY THURSDAY MORNING. A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FUELED BY A STRONG JET ROUNDING THE BASE WILL LEAD TO A LARGE AREA OF ASCENT ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN DEVOLVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE DURING THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH THESE SHOWERS.
400 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016 HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. LOW PRESSURE IS POSITIONED OVER ILLINOIS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST FROM THE LOW INTO NORTH CAROLINA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
602 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016 COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS MORNING.
136 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016 COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY MORNING.
408 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016 A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WISCONSIN WILL LEAD TO AN INTERESTING WEATHER WITH A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO THE LOWER 30S BY THURSDAY MORNING. A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FUELED BY A STRONG JET ROUNDING THE BASE WILL LEAD TO A LARGE AREA OF ASCENT ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN DEVOLVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE DURING THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH THESE SHOWERS.
1134 PM PDT TUE MAR 15 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE WEDNESDAY THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS WEEK.
358 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
The snow showers are expected to dissipate Thursday night as a ridge of high pressure builds across the region.
THIS LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION AS IT WILL BECOME TRAPPED AS THE INVERSION TONIGHT. FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT ARE STILL SET FOR THE LOW 40S. VERY BRIEF RIDGING LATE TONIGHT AND DRY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE TROF ROTATES EAST AS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THE CWA.
456 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
/QUICK REFRESH OF OBS TO KEEP WITH TRENDS ALONG FRONT/ HIGHER RES MODELS WERE POPULATED INTO THE SHORT-TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT. BUT THIS LOOKS IMPROBABLE GIVEN THE SHALLOW DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WE DO EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A VERY SHALLOW TROUGH ACROSS TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WAS STRETCHED ACROSS NORTH AND WEST TEXAS FROM SHERMAN TO SAN ANGELO TO MIDLAND. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY.
BUT ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEGATIVELY-TILTED S/W TROF THAT WAS MOVG INTO SOUTHERN WI. THE SFC AND UPPER LOWS WILL DRIFT NNE TOWARD NE WI AND THE CENTRAL U. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH LATER THIS MORNING. PCPN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH.
AREA FORECAST DISSCUSSION 316 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016 LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT FROM MILWAUKEE.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADE CREST AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE THIS MORNING, BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE DECREASE TODAY AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE COAST. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH TOMORROW, AND ITS AXIS WILL MOVE RIGHT OVER US. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY, WARMER, AND SUNNIER WEATHER FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO FROM REGION FROM THE THE NORTHWEST. WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST WINDS ADVECTING SLIGHTLY COOLER. LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH. PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTH ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THEY TOP OUT IN THE LOW AND MIDDLE 70S.
418 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016 A COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL LEAD TO DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE COMING DAYS CAUSING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING THIS WEEKEND WHEN THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. LONGER TERM MODELS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES MAY DECREASE EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK TROUGH.
THE CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT IS LOW. A DRY COLD FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AND AT 9 PM.
639 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016 A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY KEEPING WINDS GUSTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
141 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016 A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS LESS AND LESS PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AS MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING.
338 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016 SURFACE COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE STATE RIGHT NOW WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NOTING NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING PREVALENT ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A JET STREAK WAS DEPICTED BY MOST NUMERICAL MODELS OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI WHILE A TROF AT 500 MB EXTENDED FROM NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW IS RIDING OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE FORECAST SO HAVE BUMPED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A DEGREE OR SO. MOISTURE AND A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO RIDE OVER AN OFFSHORE RIDGE INTO THE AREA. TOMORROW AFTERNOON SKIES WILL BEGIN CLEARING AS THE OFFSHORE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE U. CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS BELOW 2500 FEET. LOW TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER DUE TO CLEARER CONDITIONS.
WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ROTATE BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND DOWNSTREAM TROF IS EXPECTED. BUT THEN DRYING IS EXPECTED AS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THE RIDGE WILL NOT STICK AROUND TOO LONG AS ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC CRASHES THROUGH IT BY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK.
SHOW A DEFINITE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE INTO THE LOWER VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH DAWN. BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES AGREE ON THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL LOW ON WEDNESDAY TO FILL INTO THURSDAY AS THE HIGH OVER LOW BLOCK INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO DIMINISHES AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE NORTHERN PLAINS THEREAFTER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALBEIT COOLER THAN SEEN RECENTLY. AT LEAST WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION IS POSSIBLE.
325 AM PDT WED MAR 16 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
HIT AND MISS SHOWERS, CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW IN THE IDAHO PANHANDLE, WILL REMAIN WEAK.
A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE RATHER UNSETTLED. AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK.
12Z MODELS DEPICTION OF CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON HAS DEVELOPED.
1045 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. 10 TO 15 MPH WIDE AREA OF SHOWERS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. AN EXTENSIVE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE REACHES FROM WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WITH A VERY FORMIDABLE REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST.
920 PM PDT Tue May 26 2015 Gradually warmer temperatures this week with some afternoon and evening mountain showers and thunderstorms through mid-week.
/ISSUED 251 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT, HAS KEPT THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA, AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MORE ORGANIZED SHEAR LOOKS TO HOLD BACK FOR THE MAIN LONG WAVE TROUGH CROSSING ON WEDNESDAY.
915 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 ANOTHER QUIET WX NIGHT IN STORE FOR E CENTRAL FL AS A LARGE HI PRES RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC MAINTAINS A DEEP AND STEADY E/SE FLOW ACRS THE REGION. SRLY STEERING FLOW THANKS TO AN H85-H50 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINA COAST. ALL FOUR CLIMATE STATIONS IN E CENTRAL FL HAVE EITHER TIED ARE WARMER THAN THEIR RECORD WARM MIN TEMPS. NO SIG CHANGES WITH THE EVNG UPDATE AS THE HI PRES RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC MAINTAINS A MODERATE E/SE BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC.
715 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015 TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND REPLACED BY HEIGHT FALLS BY WED MID DAY ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PUNCTUATED BY A LARGE PV ANOMALY DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAC NW AND ANOTHER PV ANOMALY MOVING EAST AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN BAJA. LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE LIMITING VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND HENCE MAINLY SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND. INSTABILITY ON WED WILL NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE THOUGH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AS SRLY FLOW INCREASES ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS.
A WEAKENING SURFACE TROF WAS SITUATED FROM WEST OF LOUISVILLE AND NASHVILLE, THEN LOSES ITS IDENTITY FURTHER S INTO MS. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED MORE TOWARD THE LOWER LEVELS. AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE GULF REGION. WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 80S COUPLED WITH LOWS PREDOM IN THE MID 60S. WITH THE LATTER HALF OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A BROAD COLD FRONT OUT OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT PLAINS APPROACHING THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
UPDATED THE HOURLY VALUES TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 67 82 66 83 / 50 60 50 60 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 66 82 64 84 / 50 60 30 50 OAK RIDGE, TN 66 82 65 85 / 50 50 30 50 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 64 80 62 84 / 50 50 30 50.
19Z sfc map shows low pressure across SW WI with a cold front extending southwest into KS. Weds should be dry for the most part as weak ridging moves across the area.
902 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK.
LOOKS LIKE A WARM LATE MAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DIMINISH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BETWEEN 01Z AND 03Z. ANTICIPATE SCT PRECIP ACTIVITY TO START DEVELOPING ONCE READINGS APPROACH THE LOW TO MID 80S DURING LATE MORNING HOURS AND PERSIST UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. A PORTION OF THE EASTERN H5 RIDGE WILL TRANSITION INTO THE NW GULF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT WILL THEN FLATTEN THEN RETROGRADE BACK INTO MEXICO GOING INTO THE WEEKEND ALLOWING THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE NEXT TROF TO DIG INTO TX.
1101 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015 Primary wave rounding an upper trough to our north went through early this morning, however a secondary lobe is swinging into the region late this afternoon and this evening.
TEMPS ARE MUCH COOLER WHERE THE SHOWERS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH SO HAVE ADJUSTED T AND TD GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST/WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE EXTENDED. WHILE LONGWAVE TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. STRONG SW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80 RANGE.
1140 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015 TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND REPLACED BY HEIGHT FALLS BY WED MID DAY ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PUNCTUATED BY A LARGE PV ANOMALY DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAC NW AND ANOTHER PV ANOMALY MOVING EAST AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN BAJA. LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE LIMITING VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND HENCE MAINLY SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND. INSTABILITY ON WED WILL NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE THOUGH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AS SRLY FLOW INCREASES ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DIMINISH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BETWEEN 01Z AND 03Z. ANTICIPATE SCT PRECIP ACTIVITY TO START DEVELOPING ONCE READINGS APPROACH THE LOW TO MID 80S DURING LATE MORNING HOURS AND PERSIST UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. A PORTION OF THE EASTERN H5 RIDGE WILL TRANSITION INTO THE NW GULF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT WILL THEN FLATTEN THEN RETROGRADE BACK INTO MEXICO GOING INTO THE WEEKEND ALLOWING THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE NEXT TROF TO DIG INTO TX.
1037 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE DOWN INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONT NEAR OR JUST OFF THE COAST KEEPING AREA MAINLY DRY THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THIS INVERSION WILL CAP THE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOW STARTING TO INDICATE A BIT MORE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE TERMINAL FORECAST OVERNIGHT TO A MIX OF MVFR/IFR BECOMING IFR WITH THE LOWEST CONDITIONS NEAR SUNRISE. THIS SAME GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS EAST OF THE AREA AND THE STORM TRACK REMAINS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES.
1044 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
927 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP MID SUMMERLIKE WARMTH ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WHILE INCREASING HUMIDITY AND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE INCREASING CHANCES OF SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL THROUGH MID WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
917 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015 A WARMING TREND WILL ESTABLISH THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND FOR TUCSON AND THE LOWER DESERTS.
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN WITHIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN UPPER WAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODEL DATA SUGGEST UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT FOR AWHILE DURING THIS PERIOD BEFORE UPPER RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE STATE OVER NIGHT WITH PREVAILING EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
EAST CENTRAL WI IS BEING DRY-SLOTTED BUT SHOWERS SHOULD RETURN LATE TONIGHT/WEDS AM AS ANOTHER S/W TROF ROTATES THROUGH. LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN TONIGHT. HOWEVER SOME SUN WAS BREAKING OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST IOWA IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY AS 500MB TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA.
A WEAKENING SURFACE TROF WAS SITUATED FROM WEST OF LOUISVILLE AND NASHVILLE, THEN LOSES ITS IDENTITY FURTHER S INTO MS.
847 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015 A slow moving low pressure system will bring scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest through Wednesday.
615 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015 Primary wave rounding an upper trough to our north went through early this morning, however a secondary lobe is swinging into the region late this afternoon and this evening.
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL IDAHO WEDNESDAY.
/ISSUED 241 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015/ Temperatures today are expected to be a little warmer than yesterday and near normal values for this time of year. A dryline is present across the Lower Trans Pecos, eastern Permian Basin, and Western Low Rolling Plains. The NAM12 is showing areas in Terrell County with CAPE values up to 4000 J/Kg of CAPE by 00z today and good bulk shear values with the best values across the Lower Trans Pecos. The NAM12 is showing CAPE values of 4000+ J/Kg across the Lower Trans Pecos and central/eastern Permian Basin.
745 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE PUSHING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK.
1245 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE DOWN INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONT NEAR OR JUST OFF THE COAST KEEPING AREA MAINLY DRY THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD.
932 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
1047 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015 BROAD UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WOBBLE TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WHERE GREATER CLEARING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. FOLLOWED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSMOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WHICH ARE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS SHOULD WARM TO BETWEEN 104 AND 107 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND. MID EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY REVEALS A COMPACT UPPER LOW WEST OF SAN DIEGO. NO PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AT THIS POINT AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE UPPER LEVELS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN WELL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S/.
825 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE DOWN INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONT NEAR OR JUST OFF THE COAST KEEPING AREA MAINLY DRY THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THINK SOME SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY54/400 LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER NRN OK. ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTY INTO OWYHEE COUNTY AS WELL AS THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW CENTER WILL BE OVER LEWISTON.
600 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN TOMORROW BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
AN UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL IMPACT MOST OF UTAH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. AN UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON STATE THIS EVENING WITH THE ASSOCIATED JET ROUNDING ITS BASE INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO. EXPECT CONTINUED ACTIVITY FOCUSING ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SAGS SOUTHEAST.
645 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WITH READINGS CLOSE TO 80 IN THE WARMER VALLEYS OF NE PA.
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO QUICKLY PASS THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
307 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015 AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE THE WEEKEND.
337 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015 COOLER AND DRIER NIGHT FOLLOWS A SIMILAR AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER TO THE NORTHWEST WHERE SKIES CLEAR FASTER.
357 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015 A little break in the stormy pattern will give us a day to dry out, but warmer temperatures and rain chances will return for the weekend. Prevailing pattern across the Nation is dominated by a low amplitude ridge/trough pattern with modest troughs across either coast and a ridge across the Plains States.
Short range models indicate a weak upper level ridge axis transitioning east across the Western High Plains tonight and pushing further east into the Central Plains Thursday. An attendant cold front will push southeast into western Kansas Thursday afternoon which may provide enough forcing to support an isolated storm or two up near the I-70 corridor where upper level dynamics will be slightly more favorable due to a +70kt jet streaming east across Nebraska. Medium range models indicate an upper level ridge of high pressure moving eastward across the Central Plains Friday giving way to a westerly flow aloft across the Western High Plains going into the weekend.
254 AM MDT THU AUG 6 2015 TODAY WILL CONTINUE THE DRYING TREND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WELL. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN BY THE EVENING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT GIVING WAY TO LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO NRN NEVADA AND THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST TX. BEST CHC WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF DENVER BUT A DEVELOPING DENVER CYCLONE COULD ALLOW FOR A SEVERE TSTMS AS WELL.
122 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO GREATER PRECIP CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE CENTER WILL SHIFT EAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH MEAN UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE E CONUS. STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH DURING THE EVENING. UPPER TROUGH AND BEST MOISTURE APPEAR TO SHIFT OFFSHORE. MODELS INDICATE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST SOME. WITH UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE E CONUS.
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL ALTHOUGH THE LOCATION OF THE CLOUD BAND HAS SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST.
HODOGRAPHS AROUND THE WATERTOWN AREA SHOW A NICE CURVE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW SETS UP. THERE COULD BE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA.
THE MAIN WESTERN TROUGH SITTING OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL SWING ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. FRIDAY SHOULD BE QUIET UNDER ZONAL FLOW AS THE NORTHERN TROUGH MOVES EAST.
313 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015 The upper ridge in control of our weather is in the process of strengthening and expanding east across Texas.