Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
For the overnight hours, an area of high pressure will quickly move south through the area, bringing light winds, and a handful of hours under mostly clear skies before mid/high clouds begin moving in later tonight. May see hourly temps steady out or even climb a few degrees towards sunrise as we get the influx of clouds and warmer temps in the lower levels.
An incoming low pressure system will bring widespread rainfall to parts of the Mojave Desert and Northwest Arizona on Saturday afternoon and overnight, mainly south of Las Vegas.
343 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 (Issued 343 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022) Tonight through Saturday night: Still expecting a round of rain showers into early this evening as low pressure moves through. It's taking a while for the precip to overcome the drier air in the low levels, but model soundings suggest things will saturate enough this afternoon for some light rain. A decent amount of sunshine is expected Saturday as high pressure to the south brushes the area. Temps will remain below normal, with breezy westerly winds keeping it feeling even cooler.
201 PM MDT Fri Oct 14 2022 Deep upper low (524dm low at 500 mb; corresponds to around a -34-36dm height anomaly) continues to churn across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes this afternoon. Looking further upstream, another weak wave is dropping through northeastern Montana this afternoon with additional areas of vorticity rotating along the northwestern periphery of the low. At the surface, a cold front has settled into central SD, stretching from eastern MT through the far northern forecast area into southeastern SD.
Upper-level northwest flow will maintain mostly clear skies on Saturday with temperatures forecast to climb into the lower 90s.
138 PM EDT Fri Oct 14 2022 Dry weather remains in place today under building high pressure. A trough moves through on Saturday providing some showers. The mentioned cold front is progged for a Saturday passage, though with a lack of significant moisture maintained only a slight to low chance for a shower with its passage. A sfc wave of low pressure is expected to develop along the front across the TN Vly region Saturday night as the longwave trough persists, with scattered showers returning as this wave tracks across the OH Vly/Mid Atlantic region. The series of trough passing through the area will keep the chance of showers in the forecast through Saturday night before the next disturbance approaches from the southwest.
In addition, tonight's lows (in the 60s) will be much warmer than this morning's readings where some locations got as cool as the lower 40s. Temperatures will also be a few degrees warmer with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
The forecast focus in the short term will be a cold frontal passage Saturday. This disturbance will also bring a cold front through the area. Compared to today, this will bring cooler highs to the west (62 to 72) and warmer to the east (63 to 69).
Saturday: Synoptic & sfc pattern will remain stagnant, but there may be some slight E propagation of the mean trough axis over the Great Lakes & OH Valley & cold core cutoff low more into Baja Peninsula/S California. Low-level ridging building to the SE will aid in WAA in the low-level thermo. /DC/ An upper low pressure system across the Great Lakes region will drive a deepening a mid-level trough through the ArkLaMiss region.
248 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 The huge upper level low pressure over MN into the Great Lakes was allowing colder air to filter into the region. Northwest flow will weaken tonight as the upper level low shifts northeast and flow turns more west to southwest. Saturday night into a stronger jet max wraps around the west side of the slow moving upper level low dragging colder air south.
(Through Saturday) High pressure has set up shop over the southeast US, giving us crystal clear skies today.
The highest rain chances will be over southwest Florida around KRSW/KFMY/KPGD, but isolated showers farther north cannot be ruled out. High pressure will continue to build in from the north through the weekend, with generally easterly winds around 15 knots or less and low rain chances.
(This evening through Saturday) Calm weather conditions and clear skies will be on tap for north and central Georgia as dry air continues to be ushered in to the forecast area from the low pressure system over the Great Lakes Region throughout the short term forecast period.
Temperatures generally range from the upper 30s to low 40s, and are expected to fall into the low 30s (with a few pockets of upper 20s) late tonight, especially as skies start to clear close to morning. Boxell (Issued 343 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022) Tonight through Saturday night: Still expecting a round of rain showers into early this evening as low pressure moves through. It's taking a while for the precip to overcome the drier air in the low levels, but model soundings suggest things will saturate enough this afternoon for some light rain. A decent amount of sunshine is expected Saturday as high pressure to the south brushes the area. Temps will remain below normal, with breezy westerly winds keeping it feeling even cooler.
(Tonight through Saturday) High pressure remains situated across the East Coast and extends well into the lower Mississippi Valley in association with a longwave trough firmly in place across much of the central and eastern CONUS.
A deep upper low was located over the Upper Midwest, bringing widespread accumulating snow (light amounts) to parts of NE Minnesota into central and northern Wisconsin. On the southern flank of the upper trough, across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois, a tight pressure gradient has led to increasing WSW winds early this afternoon.
602 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 The huge upper level low pressure over MN into the Great Lakes was allowing colder air to filter into the region. Northwest flow will weaken tonight as the upper level low shifts northeast and flow turns more west to southwest. Saturday night into a stronger jet max wraps around the west side of the slow moving upper level low dragging colder air south.
659 PM EDT Fri Oct 14 2022 High pressure will extend across the region through the weekend.
High pressure continues to be in control. High pressure is centered just off the Oregon/California coast bringing light northwesterly flow aloft over our area today.
744 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 A weak cold front will swing through central Illinois this evening triggering scattered rain showers. The showers will quickly come to an end before midnight followed by clearing skies and colder weather overnight with lows ranging from the lower 30s along/west of I-55 to around 40 degrees far SE. Chilly weather will be on tap for Saturday with highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s until high pressure tracks east of the region and southerly return flow resumes ahead of the next approaching cold front. The light southerly winds and increasing cloud cover will keep lows Saturday night several degrees warmer than tonight in the lower to middle 40s.
1025 PM EDT Fri Oct 14 2022 High pressure will extend across the region through the weekend.
415 PM MDT Fri Oct 14 2022 Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon for a large part of the CWA as a cold front approaches from the north and northeast. Cold front lays across extreme northeast Nebraska. afternoon humidity has fallen into the low to mid teens. Pretty cold 700mb temperatures fall from the low single digits to -2 to -3C Saturday afternoon.
744 PM EDT Fri Oct 14 2022 (Through Tonight) High pressure will build overhead from the northwest through Tonight. Lows Tonight will range from the lower to mid 50s across inland SE GA to the lower to mid 60s over coastal NE FL.
610 PM MDT Fri Oct 14 2022 Pleasant fall weather will continue through the weekend, though it will be a bit cooler in the wake of a cold front that will push through the region overnight tonight and tomorrow morning. Overall temperatures trend about 10-15 degrees cooler for Saturday, closer to climate normals.
611 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 A weak cold front will swing through central Illinois this evening triggering scattered light showers. The showers will quickly come to an end before midnight followed by clearing skies and colder weather overnight with lows ranging from the lower 30s along/west of I-55 to around 40 degrees far SE. Chilly weather will be on tap for Saturday with highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s until high pressure tracks east of the region and southerly return flow resumes ahead of the next approaching cold front. The light southerly winds and increasing cloud cover will keep lows Saturday night several degrees warmer than tonight in the lower to middle 40s.
Satellite imagery shows a trough slowly dropping to the south across the Upper Midwest into the Mississippi River Valley. Otherwise temperatures bottom out in the low to mid 50s tonight.
605 PM EDT Fri Oct 14 2022 (Through Saturday) High pressure has set up shop over the southeast US, giving us crystal clear skies today.
453 PM MDT Fri Oct 14 2022 Deep upper low (524dm low at 500 mb; corresponds to around a -34-36dm height anomaly) continues to churn across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes this afternoon. Looking further upstream, another weak wave is dropping through northeastern Montana this afternoon with additional areas of vorticity rotating along the northwestern periphery of the low. At the surface, a cold front has settled into central SD, stretching from eastern MT through the far northern forecast area into southeastern SD.
A slight chance of sporadic showers, mostly near I-80, may occur late morning this morning with lingering vorticity advection embedded within the trough and increase frontogenesis prompting lift.
A high amplitude blocking ridge remains anchored off the Pacific Coast around 130W. Temperatures should dip again into the low to mid 30s in the Snake Plain, giving us frost/freeze conditions once again this morning.
Large upper low pressure over western Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes States will be sending energy southeastward across the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. Temperatures should warm up with highs in the lower 60s or lower 70s. Midday Saturday a cold front moves southeast into Nebraska , bringing with it increasing clouds and cooler temperatures. Deep upper trough continues dropping southeast into Lower Great Lakes and resulting in more reinforced shots of cold air to move into the area.
337 AM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 High pressure in the area for the weekend will lead to continued dry weather across the area.
-- Relatively dry Saturday night into Sunday -- While we remain in the upper trough during this period, heights will be on the rise as the upper trough lifts out just a bit.
This will bring surface cold front south toward the area today. Meanwhile, a piece of energy will lift northeast around the closed low to our southwest toward the southern Plains.
(Today through Sunday) The start of the short term period will remain fairly quiet as high pressure sits just to our east and a large stable and dry airmass remains in place aloft.
1028 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 The huge upper level low pressure over MN into the Great Lakes was allowing colder air to filter into the region. Northwest flow will weaken tonight as the upper level low shifts northeast and flow turns more west to southwest. Saturday night into a stronger jet max wraps around the west side of the slow moving upper level low dragging colder air south.
(Today and tonight) One last warm and dry day across West Central Texas ahead of the the front bringing cooler and wetter conditions starting on Sunday. Temperatures starting off this morning 10-20 degrees warmer than yesterday, so afternoon readings pushing near the 90 degree mark this afternoon looks reasonable. Cold front moves south across the Red River Valley tonight, likely reaching near I-20 from Sweetwater to Abilene by sunrise Sunday morning. Front doesn't arrive in enough time to have much in the way of an effect on temperatures yet so lows in the low to mid 60s looks on target.
High pressure will continue to build in from the north through the weekend, with generally easterly winds around 15 knots or less and low rain chances.
400 AM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 A dry cold front will move across the area tonight.
328 AM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Discussion/Marine - Break In Precip Today - Showers will come to an end this morning as a cold front with its associated showers swing east. Conditions should stay generally quiet today but cooler with highs peaking around 50.
Saturday: Synoptic & sfc pattern will remain stagnant, but there may be some slight E propagation of the mean trough axis over the Great Lakes & OH Valley & cold core cutoff low more into Baja Peninsula/S California. Low-level ridging building to the SE will aid in WAA in the low-level thermo. /DC/ An upper low pressure system across the Great Lakes region will drive a deepening a mid-level trough through the ArkLaMiss region. As the trough swings through, there will be enough breaks in within the trough for a cold front to push through Sunday.
112 AM MDT Sat Oct 15 2022 A cold front that is now moving through Montana will enter northern Wyoming early this morning and drop southward across the state. This will usher in some cooler but not cold air to the area through the day. It will feel a lot cooler today through, especially given the wind and the recent above normal temperatures. The rest of the period will feature quiet weather as a strong upper level high builds over the northern Rockies and brings some delightful autumn weather with plenty of sunshine and mild temperatures. Sunday will still be cooler, especially across eastern areas but less wind and more sunshine should make it feel warmer.
417 AM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Dry high pressure will reside over the area through the weekend.
The associated cold front will move through the area during pre-dawn hours and will bring the chance for precipitation, particularly in our northern counties. This energy will buckle mid- and upper-level flow and induce a cold front late in the day.
235 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Though cooler today, temperatures will still climb above climo across the area. A secondary upper trof will slide southeastward across the Upper Midwest tonight. This will send a secondary cold front south across the area with even cooler air for Sunday closer to mid-October climo. The RAP seems to be a reasonable compromise of the NAM/GFS, depicting weak to modest elevated instability along/south of the highway 54 corridor.
1042 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 Water vapor imagery is showing a strong short wave diving south- southeast through the eastern Plains and Upper Midwest this afternoon this short wave is propelling another cold front thorough Iowa into Missouri and Illinois. The clouds and light precip should move out of the area by midnight or shortly thereafter, and a weak high pressure system will dip into Missouri late tonight into early Saturday morning. The clear/mostly clear sky should provide excellent radiational cooling conditions, and temps will dip into the low to mid 30s across parts of northeast Missouri with mid 30s to low 40s in most of the rest of the area. Temperatures on Saturday will be cooler behind the cold front. Next weeks weather will continue to be dominated by the stacked closed low/long wave trough over eastern North America.
High pressure will continue through at least the end of the up coming week.
1232 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 (Tonight through Saturday) High pressure remains situated across the East Coast and extends well into the lower Mississippi Valley in association with a longwave trough firmly in place across much of the central and eastern CONUS.
343 AM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 High pressure will extend across the region through the weekend.
Winds are becoming southeast across Southeast Texas, still east to variable across Louisiana but expected to become southeast later this afternoon as the high moves east. The mid to upper level pattern will continue to be dominated by a large trough/cut off low over the Central and Eastern U. By Sunday, a weak upper level disturbance ahead of the next significant cold front will give low chances of showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm, generally in the 20-30% range.
Not much change to large scale flow over the last 24 hours as water vapor imagery still showing a well defined deeply amplified trough extending from Canada into the southeastern CONUS.
A slight chance of sporadic showers, mostly near I-80, will occur from dawn to late morning with lingering vorticity advection embedded within the trough and increase frontogenesis promoting lift. The same low pressure system that brought the first snowfall to the Upper Midwest traverses the northern periphery of the Ohio Valley, generally quiet weather is expected through Sunday night. Low pressure emerging from the same Upper Midwest location may bring the first snowflakes to the season as it develops coincident with jet support and vorticity advection. Models also indicate frontogenesis may assist in the lower levels.
112 AM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 High pressure will extend across the region through the weekend.
(Today) Water vapor imagery shows an upper trough shifting east through the Great Lakes. A cold front was dropping southeast into southern IN through southeast MO into central OK this morning. Otherwise, expect another warm day with highs in the lower 80s.
(Through Saturday) High pressure has set up shop over the southeast US, giving us crystal clear skies today. (Saturday night through Sunday night) High pressure is forecast to settle over the area through Sunday with easterly to southeasterly winds in place over the area. Sunday night, the area of high pressure begins to slide eastward into the Atlantic with moisture increasing across the region. High temperatures on Sunday are forecast in the mid to upper 80s with low temperatures in the 50s Saturday night warming into the low 60s Sunday night.
On Saturday, the cold front is expected to slow as it pushes into extreme southern KY and central TN. Temperatures on Saturday will vary from north to south with the positioning of the front: expect mid-60s for highs across southern IN, highs around 70 across north central KY and highs in the low-to-mid 70s across southern KY. Much of this rain will form in response to modest isentropic lift along ~300K surfaces ahead of a cold front, with the greatest moisture depth in the column generally across Tennessee and southern Kentucky.
Have again edged to the higher end of temperatures and winds, and lower end on dew points. Cooler air will be right on the doorstep, with a cold front sinking south in the evening. An upper low to the east will continue to dominate the flow, with upstream ridging and steering flow out of Canada, resulting in this period of below normal temperatures.
357 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Forecast highlight in the short term period will be chances for rain west this morning, windy conditions today, followed by widespread freezing temperatures tonight. Currently, large area of upper level low pressure remains off to our east, keeping a strong north/northwest flow aloft regime over the Northern Plains. A cold front will approach from the north today, with a tight pressure gradient ahead, resulting in gusty northwesterly winds developing this morning into the afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler north near the FROPA in the mid/upper 40s, and milder south in the mid 50s. Cold FROPA pushing south across the region Sat night will bring cooler daytime temperatures to the area for Sunday, with highs mainly in the 40s.
732 AM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Aviation - Break In Precip Today - Showers will come to an end this morning as a cold front with its associated showers swing east. Conditions should stay generally quiet today but cooler with highs peaking around 50.
958 AM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 A dry cold front will move across the area tonight.
Forecast highlight in the short term period will be chances for rain west this morning, windy conditions today, followed by widespread freezing temperatures tonight. Currently, large area of upper level low pressure remains off to our east, keeping a strong north/northwest flow aloft regime over the Northern Plains. A cold front will approach from the north today, with a tight pressure gradient ahead, resulting in gusty northwesterly winds developing this morning into the afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler north near the FROPA in the mid/upper 40s, and milder south in the mid 50s. Cold FROPA pushing south across the region Sat night will bring cooler daytime temperatures to the area for Sunday, with highs mainly in the 40s.
612 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 (Today and tonight) One last warm and dry day across West Central Texas ahead of the the front bringing cooler and wetter conditions starting on Sunday. Temperatures starting off this morning 10-20 degrees warmer than yesterday, so afternoon readings pushing near the 90 degree mark this afternoon looks reasonable. Cold front moves south across the Red River Valley tonight, likely reaching near I-20 from Sweetwater to Abilene by sunrise Sunday morning. Front doesn't arrive in enough time to have much in the way of an effect on temperatures yet so lows in the low to mid 60s looks on target.
642 AM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Dry high pressure will reside over the area through the weekend.
536 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Though cooler today, temperatures will still climb above climo across the area. A secondary upper trof will slide southeastward across the Upper Midwest tonight. This will send a secondary cold front south across the area with even cooler air for Sunday closer to mid-October climo. The RAP seems to be a reasonable compromise of the NAM/GFS, depicting weak to modest elevated instability along/south of the highway 54 corridor.
It's still worth noting the high today would tie the latest 90 degree day on record for Medford. By Sunday, the thermal trough bringing all the heat to the region will move farther eastwards into the day. A warm front and deep upper level low will approach the coast by late Sunday evening. Areas farther inland might see some upper level clouds ahead of the warm front. A deeper upper low and strong cold front will likely kick through the Pacific Northwest sometime between the 22nd and 23rd. We're also looking at the potential for rain in our region as this low moves through.
925 AM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 High pressure will extend across the region through the weekend.
On the synoptic scale, There is a high amplitude trough residing over much of the eastern CONUS, with the island chain at the base of the trough. To the north of the Keys, cutting across the I-4 corridor on the peninsula, is a slowly dissipating cold front, with dewpoints north of the boundary in the 50s and 60s, and 70s to the south of the boundary. Flow in the lower boundary layer is fairly non-existent, along the lines of 1 or 2 knots of average flow in the lowest 10 kft. Cumulus cloud lines developing along the islands this afternoon may spawn some nearshore showers, especially along the Lower Keys, with a slight chance of a thunderstorm or two developing along the cloud lines.
While the area of low pressure to our southwest, that has remained fairly stationary, finally begins moving eastward. By Sunday morning, enough moisture will have streamed up from the south and lift provided by the low pressure will allow some showers to form over the southern valleys and San Juans. Still not expecting anything drastic QPF-wise, just some light rainfall as the low passes to our south. As far as temperatures are concerned, Saturday will see warmer than seasonal averages though areas who see more cloud cover might see a few degrees drop from what was seen yesterday.
715 AM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 High pressure will extend across the region through the weekend.
Warmer than normal temperatures can be expected today thanks to an approaching cold front.