Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
638 AM MDT WED JUN 15 2016 Predawn water vapor loop depicted a large upper low just offshore the WA/British Columbia coast. The large scale high pressure ridge building over the nation/s midsection will be the dominant weather feature through the short term.
Dry southwesterly flow from the Pacific will continue to stream into Arizona with a long wave trough along the west coast and a ridge over the central states.
Surface and upper level low pressure to track from northeast/eastcentral WI at sunset this evening into central lower MI by 12Z/7 am Thu and northeast Ohio by sunset Thu.
/ISSUED / Upper ridging continues to build over Texas early this morning, with this feature expected to anchor itself over the region later today into Thursday.
This activity was associated with the remnants of a convective cluster that affected the High Plains about a day ago. A zonal flow otherwise was in place across the lower-48 this morning, this westerly flow moving south of two upper lows, one west of Vancouver and the other over Newfoundland. Even though shower activity was not affecting the forecast area now, humid conditions prevailed, with overnight lows so far in the low/mid 70s and dewpoints most spots of at least 70. This high amount of moisture, along with some upward motion and more passing disturbances could lead to more shower and thunderstorm activity today and tonight.
Most areas will see highs in the lower 90s with heat indices in the 100-105 range.
958 AM PDT WED JUN 15 2016 A deep low pressure system over the region will continue cool and showery conditions into the weekend. Freezing temperatures will be unlikley tonight as high clouds move into the region but one more night of covering light frost sensitive plants may be needed in the Republic, WA area.
There are even some dewpoints along the coast in the low 80s.
00Z Upper air analysis along with Water Vapor Satellite trends indicate a upper level trough axis extending across the plains early this morning. 00Z upper air sounding from KLZK yesterday evening indicated a capping inversion around 850 MB as a upper level ridge over the Southern Plains has built into southwest portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Main weather story will be the excessive heat over the next several days as upper ridge begins to build into the southern plains.
A line of thunderstorms is likely along a cold front forecast to move through the region late tonight, especially near and north of I-96.
Also, much like the past few days, locally heavy rainfall with localized brief flooding is possible due to the high PWATs, although storm motions will be a bit faster today which may reduce this threat.
It'll continue to shift off to the north and east thru mid morning, with a relative lull otherwise, as main spill of vort energy makes its way across upper Mississippi valley and begins to drive cold front southeastward. In the wake of the front's passage, we'll see strong ridging of high pressure aloft just to our west, and a robust cyclone barrelling down and across the mid/upper Ohio river valley just to our east. We'll be caught in the transitionary nw flow in between, which means drier air works in but not necessarily cooler just yet. Calculated heat indices may reach or exceed headline cats, particularly western counties closer to the ridge.
Showers and thunderstorms in north central ND rapidly dissipated in the last 90 minutes as they propagated into a more stable air mass and increasing subsidence aloft in the wake of the stacked low pressure system centered in west central MN at 11 UTC. Mostly sunny today, then the next wave moves into eastern Montana with convection firing along a lee trough and advancing northeast.
For today, upper level ridging will begin to bring on the heat wave across the Central Plains.
915 MHZ USAF wind profilers show WSW low lvl winds to 10-15 knots in the lowest 4 kft which should keep the sea breeze close to the coast north of the Cape with only slow inland progress from the Cape south into late afternoon. Highs will reach the lower to mid 90s with heat indices from 100 to 105.
Little change in store with upper ridge building over E TX and sinking air spreading in over much of the area. /issued 331 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ A much quieter morning prevailed as compared to recent days, courtesy of the UA trough that brought moderate to heavy rainfall to portions of the region has shifted East towards the SE CONUS. If this precip does indeed come into fruition, it will likely diminish by the afternoon, because an UA ridge across SE TX will amplify and nose into the Four-State region. The presence of the said UA ridge will not only result in an increase in large scale subsidence and subsequently declining chances for precip, but it will also encourage a warming trend throughout the remainder of this week.
958 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 Upper level ridge has become established with afternoon temperatures ranging from the low to mid 90s and heat index values from 104 to 108 degrees. Therefore, upper level ridge from northern old Mexico and Texas is building into the region, and likely helping to preclude any nocturnal development. Over the next few days, the mid/upper level ridge will hold across the forecast area.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 73 96 73 / 60 60 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 71 93 73 / 60 60 10 50 Oak Ridge, TN 88 72 93 73 / 60 60 10 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 68 90 69 / 60 60 20 50.
Bigelbach Previous Discussion: Southwest flow aloft will continue in the short term with an upper trough/low on the Pacific Coast and an upper ridge to the east. A cold front has moved to the south and east of the forecast area early this morning taking the thunderstorms with it. This inverted trough will act as a frontal boundary. Surface based CAPE and instability will be limited both today and tonight with cooler air mass over the area and frontal boundary to the east.
/issued 428 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): Mid level ridging will remain in place over Texas through the forecast period. High temperatures today and Thursday will range from the lower 90s near the coast to the mid and upper 90s across the mid valley to above the century mark across the upper Valley and the West.
Eastward progress of the aforementioned trough should alleviate convection conditions on Wednesday night.
Therefore, upper level ridge from northern old Mexico and Texas is building into the region, and likely helping to preclude any nocturnal development. Over the next few days, the mid/upper level ridge will hold across the forecast area.
Once the last of the rain showers shift out of our far northeast counties, upper ridging aloft will dominate conditions through Thursday, and thus the dry forecast. When the period opens Thursday night, the CWA is under the influence of an upper level ridge that is being slightly displaced to the east, resulting in weak southwesterly flow aloft.
1139 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2016 High pressure will keep the area dry today with above normal temperatures. A few cirrus clouds are present this morning across central NY and northeast PA as we continue to be along the outer edge of the uppr lvl ridge. This system will send an elevated warm front across the region early this morning. There is a slight chance for a rumble of thunder over the region as northern edge of the mid-lvl theta-e ridge pushes into the region, but since the majority of the precip is expected to be rain, left rain showers as the dominant ptype.
Upper air analysis last evening showed a ridge extending from Texas to the Great Lakes with a low over the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, high pressure was centered off to the east and winds were from the southeast. The upper level ridge will remain in place over the middle of the country and the low level flow will continue to be from the southeast during this period. We will issue a heat advisory for this afternoon due to the high heat index.
1059 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 Not much change to the forecast this morning as temperatures are expected to rise into the low-90s east and low triple digits west.
622 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 The NAM and RAP models shows a warm front lifting into Southwestern Nebraska today. The warm front will lift through North Central Nebraska tonight. The RAP and HRRR models shows highs a few degrees warmer but these models mix very deeply.
The low cloud field will break up around mid-morning, with VFR conditions prevailing through the rest of the TAF period. Winds will be mostly from the south, with the higher speeds and afternoon gusts to near 20 knots at KABI. /issued 331 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ (Today and Tonight) An upper level high will begin to build over Texas and the Southern Plains today and tonight. Model indications are for some heating and drying of the low-level airmass to occur with the ridge aloft beginning to build, but this is being countered by ongoing evapotranspiration with moist soil conditions from relatively recent rainfall. At this time, anticipate that dewpoints will drop into the 60s this afternoon across our area, with the higher readings across our eastern counties.
Otherwise a 700mb- 500mb ridge axis cresting over central North Dakota this afternoon will continue to result in plenty of sunshine. Showers and thunderstorms in north central ND rapidly dissipated in the last 90 minutes as they propagated into a more stable air mass and increasing subsidence aloft in the wake of the stacked low pressure system centered in west central MN at 11 UTC. Mostly sunny today, then the next wave moves into eastern Montana with convection firing along a lee trough and advancing northeast.
1100 AM MDT WED JUN 15 2016 Air mass over southern Colorado will continue to dry out and warm up today as upper level ridge builds northward through the central plains. Deep layered SW flow west of the building ridge will transport hot/dry air northward out of the desert sw, with 700 mb temps rising to 16C-18C across the area by late afternoon. High pressure over TX will build northward into NM and SRN CO over the weekend.
Upper level ridging will begin to build into the region today and especially on Thursday.
/ISSUED 322 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016/ Mid and upper level ridging is expected to intensify across the Southern Plains through the end of the week resulting in dry conditions and warming temperatures. Skies should scatter out by midday allowing temperatures to climb into the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s combined with temperatures in the low to mid 90s will yield heat index values late this afternoon and early evening in the 103 to 107 degree range.
1050 AM MDT WED JUN 15 2016 Low pressure to our northwest and high pressure building in over Texas will keep southwesterly flow in the forecast. The low and high pressure don't move much over the next 48 hours so a repeat performance can be expected on Thursday: plenty of sunny skies, dry conditions, and some breezy afternoon winds.
Weak upper level troughing is in place just west of the area currently with a very moist airmass over the southeast states. This airmass combined with weak upper troughing is expected to yield a fairly high coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the area northwest half of the area today. Increased cloud cover is expected to keep high temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday, although it will still feel quite muggy with high dewpoints.
Isolated showers becoming scattered after 18Z, mainly over the higher terrain. Isolated thunderstorms after 18Z over the higher terrain of Southwest Idaho. Large upper level low will continue to spin off the Pacific Northwest coast through the period, which will keep the area in an active southwest flow.
SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): 500mb subtropical ridge across the south central United States today will move little tonight into Thursday as an inverted 500mb trough moving across the southwest Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche today and tonight moves westward into eastern Mexico Thursday.
Any convection will remain very isolated due to the strengthening upper level ridge and will not warrant including any mention in this TAF cycle.
Stacked surface and upper low near the northeast corner of Montana at 09z will move to the east this morning. upper ridge will build into Eastern Montana by afternoon and bring mostly clear skies to the forecast area. Expect warmer temperatures on Thursday as upper ridge axis moves through the forecast area. The ridge moves to the east Thursday Night and flow aloft turns to the southwest ahead of an upper low that moves inland across the Pacific NW.
136 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 A cold front settles near or just south of the area tonight and Wednesday before moving back as a warm front Wednesday night. Low pressure moves across the region on Thursday.
Our area will remain situated underneath a broad upper level ridge over the southern half of the CONUS, along with a lower level ridge over the southeastern states. Overnight lows are expected to range from the upper 60s inland to the lower 70s along the coast. High pressure will remain in control of the local forecast area. Upper level ridging currently sprawled over the Four-Corners region will begin to progress eastward, while surface ridging builds in from the Atlantic. Temperatures will continue to be near normal with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows around 70 area wide.
320 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 A cold front will sag south of the Mason-Dixon line early this morning.
Weak surface ridging lies over the north-central FL peninsula. An expansive area of mid-upper level ridging centered over the southern Plains with ridge axis extending eastward to across the Gulf Coast States will continue to strengthen as it spreads further eastward and across the region. Weak surface ridging will remain aligned east-west across the north-central FL peninsula providing for a continued light onshore flow over ECFL. Axis of low-mid level high pressure ridge is forecast to extend across the area into the weekend with slight weakening occurring SUN-MON.
It will be another day of very warm and dry conditions as a ridge of high pressure dominates the weather for northern and central Nevada.
Lake breezes are expected to move inland today, keeping highs near the Great Lakes in the mid to upper 60s as inland temperatures rise into the low to mid 70s. Wednesday night: A trough digging SE across the Upper MS Valley at the start of the period will interact with an upper jet, and in combination with weak low-level WAA, will produce a band of showers and some embedded storms across northern WI that will bleed into Upper MI.
High pressure builds into the area at the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend.
Confident that much of the southern and eastern zones will achieve triple digits Wednesday, with highs of 100-104 in the lower elevations where downslope compression will be enhanced. Weak cold frontal boundary will arrive in the northern CWA around midday. Moisture and instability increase markedly Wednesday, with CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg forecasted by both NAM/GFS, with GFS forecasting a corridor of strong instability and moisture convergence along the advancing cold front across the northern zones 4-7 pm Wed. Clouds, convection, and reduced thicknesses will "cool" Thursday's highs to the low to mid 90s for many locales.
Weak high pressure returns Wednesday ahead of the next system expected to track through Pennsylvania.
For now a rather strong ridge aloft will be affecting the CWA. A weak cold front will be moving slowly toward far N GA late Thursday night with the ridge aloft get nudged S.
then cool and showery weather for Thu into Fri as an upper low pres moves across the region.
437 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 A cold front will sag south of the Mason-Dixon line early this morning.
416 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 Ongoing storm activity expected to be winding down toward the start of the forecast period shortly after sunrise, as mid level wave riding east along warm front slides east of the forecast area.
320 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 An upper level low will move across our region today. Low pressure will then pass to our south on Thursday perhaps bringing southern zones some showers. High pressure and warmer temperatures move in for the weekend. A short wave trough currently moving through south eastern Ontario will move into New Hampshire and Maine this morning. Ahead of the trough, clouds are beginning to spread into the northern portion of the forecast area. With the very cold air aloft, small hail is possible as freezing levels drop to around 7000ft.
A pressure ridge extending from the Atlantic westward through the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue to limit moisture in the forecast area. Surface ridging to the south will continue to limit moisture in the forecast area. Strong heating south of the front with h85 westerly flow plus recent verification favors the higher temperature guidance today. Leaned toward the higher low temperature guidance tonight because of expected boundary layer wind. The models depict the front remaining north of the area with surface ridging near the Gulf Coast through Thursday. The models indicate building upper ridging which should further diminish the thunderstorm chance. We followed the higher high temperature guidance. The models show the front sinking a little farther southward with somewhat diminished upper ridging Thursday night.
152 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 A warm front will return northward today as low pressure moves toward the area. Potent ridge runner cresting rockies ridge acrs MT attm of which will rapidly eject into the wrn Grtlks wed night. Otrws btr wmfntl push ewd of sfc cyclone shifting out the plains looks delayed til wed evening sw and northeast of there overnight. Aft that rockies ridge expands/shifts east in response to deep nrn stream sw trough that wraps up ewd through srn Canada by lt weekend. Warm front and associated elevated convections will overspread the area from the west aft 15Z.
A warm front will return northward today as low pressure moves toward the area. These storms are expected to produce widespread wind damage by early tonight over the forecast area as a warm front moves northeast.
Beyond that, expect little to no chance for rain as drier air filters into the region under a dominant high pressure ridge aloft.
A weak cold front off the coast will stall today before making its way onshore and bringing light rain to western areas tonight.
Inverted trough from main low over N Central NE extending back into second area of low pressure over Srn SASK. Low pressure will move into northeastern ND by noon time with instability weakening across the north and some instability south of Hwy 2. High pressure slides into ND by 06Z and should see any lingering activity dissipate during the evening hours as winds turn northeast than northerly by midnight. Overnight lows will be in the lower 50s and possibly upper 40s in the far northeast as the drier air sinks in from Ontario. Western zones will see return flow set up in the afternoon, which will keep Thu night lows 5 to 6 deg warmer across the west than across northern MN.
338 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 Broad eastern states trough puts GA in a northwest flow aloft. The upper ridge strengthens over the southeast on Thursday and forecast precipitable water expected to be near an inch or less.
416 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 Weak high pressure will keep the weather dry today. Expect warmer air to overspread the area this afternoon. There still remain questions on the exact track the complex will take, and in turn where the warm front, which will help to guide the system, will setup tonight. Conditions will improve from north to south Thursday afternoon, as a slightly cooler and drier airmass slowly overspreads the area.
An area of strong high pressure centered over the Four Corners region will remain in place through midweek allowing very hot conditions to continue across the area.
The current 305-310K baroclinic zone over far southwest Iowa will advance northward with the low level jet maturation and warm advection surge reaching the northeast third of the forecast area by the late evening and early morning hours. Regarding severe weather potential, damaging wind and large hail would be possible if any convection taps the higher MUCapes in the short term but soundings suggest the later convection would be elevated below a decent inversion precluding much if any wind potential with large hail and heavy rains the primary threats.
245 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 Cold front becomes stationary overnight, before lifting north as a warm front Wednesday. Another cold front crosses late Thursday and Thursday night.
232 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 A hot and humid day is expected across the Mid-South as an upper ridge of high pressure builds over the region. The ridge will suppress diurnal convection from developing. The ridge will begin to break down on Thursday allowing a back door cold front to approach from the northeast.
A deep layer mean anticyclone was centered over eastern Texas, with another, larger, deep layer mean anticyclone centered over the subtropical North Atlantic. A col region between the two systems was present near Florida, while a weak, undulating pattern of easterlies was indicated along the southern flanks of the two anticyclones. A weak to moderate easterly flow regime will prevail with ridging both at the surface and aloft remaining north of the Florida Keys.
Upper level troughing over the northeastern U. Subtropical ridging continues to ridge west over the Bahamas and Florida. Farther west, a broad area of upper level ridging extends from California to the southeast U. The high pressure shifts slightly southward on Thursday and will bring an increase in moisture and rain chances.
327 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 Thunderstorms this morning, then the potential for development along cold front later today, as well as heat ahead of the front, are the primary concerns of the short range forecast. Trailing cold front is forecast to sweep southeast through our area today, reaching Interstate 80 by noon and exiting southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa by 6 PM or so. Mid level heights will begin a gradual increase in the Plains on Thursday as upper trough swings into the Pacific Northwest, effectively pumping up ridge in the central part of the country.
Airmass still too dry for any showers as upper ridge builds into the area from the nw. Temperatures will be back to average or slightly above average with highs ranging from the upper 80s coast to the low/mid 90s inland.
The high res models seem to have a good handle on the current convection and support a chance of showers and possibly a couple thunderstorms through the day, particularly north and east. 500MB heights build during the day as upper ridge moves in from the west with dry conditions expected tonight.
353 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 The broad 595 decameter upper-level ridge over the southern US will continue to expand eastward today. As low-level thicknesses continue to gradually increase temperatures will continue their gradual warming trend and reach the low 90s. Dry conditions should continue on Thursday due to upper-level ridging, a dry air mass, and 700 mb temperatures around +12C.
306 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 The subtropical upper level high will be the dominant player in our weather through the next several days.
417 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 Short version of the forecast, HOT and maybe then rain; long version, really HOT today and some potential for rain in the future! Satellite imagery this morning shows a broad ridge across much of the Nation with the prevailing westerlies located across the Northern Plains. with the Dakotas trough moving east this morning another weak frontal boundary is expected to settle into far northern Missouri late this afternoon and through the overnight hours. Add in the fact that the thermal ridge axis will lay over across the forecast area ahead of the front, and temperatures could reasonably range around 100 degrees; and that's before we factor in the humidity.