Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS EARLY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING SWITCHING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME CIRRUS IS SEEN IN IR SATELLITE LOOP ASSOCIATED WITH GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING MEAN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON AT SOME LOCATIONS. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH PUSHING QUICKLY EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY INITIALLY BE A WEAK SURFACE RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF A LEE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES THIS AFTERNOON. THE COOL SURGE WITH THIS SECOND TROUGH PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
1246 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND.
A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 11-15 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL SATURATE THE LOW ATMOSPHERE AND RESULT IN CIGS BECOME MVFR FROM 07/09Z ON. AS THE COLD FRONT PROVIDING FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL RECEIVE A SECOND PUSH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
123 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS.
At the surface , pacific high pressure continued to spread eastward form the west into the central Plains. The other focus on tonight will revolve around how cold temperatures fall in additional to possibility on and fog or freezing fog than may possibly develop. Overnight lows will be a challenge as high pressure overspreads the areas sending winds calm across much of the region after about 9 UTC. A broad ridge will begin to build into the Central and Northern Plains on Saturday. Temperatures just around freezing early in the morning to just warmer to highs in the 50s will be common through the weekend.
259 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015 AN UPR TROF WL CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTH ACRS THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE NIGHT. EXITING THE STATE BY MIDDAY SATURDAY WITH AN UPR RIDGE THEN BUILDING OVR THE AREA. THIS EVENING THERE WL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLD SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR TROF AND INSTABILITY. AND IN THE 40S OVER THE HIGH VALLEYS.
331 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NOW WILL USHER IN A COOLER BUT MORE SEASONAL WEATHER PATTERN. COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM KBFD-KPIT AND MOVING STEADILY INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. A SHARP TROUGH SWEEPS DOWN FROM THE NW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES - BUT THE EFFECTS OF ENHANCED SHOWERS SHOULD NOT REACH THE COMMONWEALTH UNTIL AFTER DARK. LOW PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE OLD FRONT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT PUSH ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP UP INTO THE SE.
237 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS THIS WEEKEND AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
Said lift is occurring in advance of a cold front which will gradually turn the SE winds to E-NE (in a counter clockwise fashion) between 06Z-12Z. Noticeably cooler high temps (below normal) are expected Sat area-wide. More warming Tue with better lee trof and thermal ridging underneath strengthening SW flow aloft. An upper low is expected to pass to the n of CWFA on Wed and will push a Pacific front across the area. This will favor cooler temps and dry windy conditions (similar to yesterday). This will result in a cool morning Thur with some of the PB near freezing with only slightly warmer temps by Fri.
1110 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
1249 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOLER.
1102 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS ENDING. FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. FIRST WIND SHIFT NOW CROSSING THE RIDGES WITH MAIN FRONT INTO CENTRAL OHIO. COOLER 850MB TEMPS LAG MAIN FRONT. AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL END ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.
150 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND OVER OUR CWA. AXIS OF H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS HAVE RESULTED IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER THE WBZ HEIGHTS ARE AND LOWER THE CHANCE FOR SNOW TO REACH THE SURFACE. AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST. CONSIDERING FORECAST TEMPS THIS WOULD LEAD TO FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL AND SLICK ROADWAYS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH GFS/ECMWF WHICH INDICATE DRY ADVECTION WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LATE TONIGHT SHOULD LIMIT ANY FOG POTENTIAL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS.
1156 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. SATURDAY WILL SEE MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
935 AM PST FRI NOV 6 2015 OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY CANYON WINDS.
UPPER RIDGE TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVING IN THE REGION. OTHERWISE EXPECT A SLIGHT UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE TURNS TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF EARLY WEEK SYSTEM.
117 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOLER.
1257 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
1238 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 A longwave trough centered across the middle portion of North America will slowly shift east through the period as a ridge begins to build across western North America. Once this wave passes later on today and tonight, we will see a reinforcement of high pressure and cooler air tonight. We expect another night of sub-freezing temperatures, perhaps over a larger area.
331 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE REGION ATTM. A LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS OFF THE NAM AND GFS ARE ONLY SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S SO WILL TREND HIGHS DOWN A TAD.
307 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE OVERALL. COLD FRONTS WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 314 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, THEN MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
/ISSUED 1009 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015/ A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. /ISSUED 411 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015/ A COLD FRONT IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE MIDSOUTH. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW ITS PROGRESS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO IT.
407 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL PULL A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THE COLD FRONT HAS SLOWED.
1120 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1030 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015/ COMPLICATED SCENARIO WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A DEEP LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND SE TEXAS. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND SOME INCREASED UPPER LEVEL FORCING LATER AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES NW ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON.
316 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 A COLD FRONT NOW STRETCHES FROM SAVANNAH TENNESSEE. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT.
1151 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 Quite a few light showers are developing just ahead of the cold front near the KY/TN border, so have introduced a slight chance of showers to that region through the afternoon. Cold front will push through the forecast area by around noon. Cooler conditions will filter in overnight and last through the weekend as high pressure presses east into the Ohio Valley.
Clear and cooler today, with a light northeast wind. The cold front has stalled across southeast Oklahoma and into western Arkansas.
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 60S. BUT FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS WILL DROP NEAR FREEZING. WITH INFLUX OF COOLER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREE COOLER.
COMPLICATED SCENARIO WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A DEEP LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND SE TEXAS. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND SOME INCREASED UPPER LEVEL FORCING LATER AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES NW ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHRA AND TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH -RA BECOMING WDSPRD THIS EVENING.
315 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 High pressure has built across Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Today in the wake of the cold front that moved through the region last night. Cooler temperatures will be on tap tonight especially across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas where temperatures will fall into the upper 30s and lower 40.
AND 00Z NMM APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON COLD FRONT POSITION /CURRENTLY NW WEBB COUNTY EASTWARD TO NORTH OF FREER.
1121 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 Expansive ridging building in behind last night's cold front has brought rapid clearing to the region, with mostly clear skies expected most of the day today across the region. Northwesterly winds will keep temperatures about 10 to 14 degrees cooler than yesterday, but still right around average for early November with highs in the upper 50s. The passage of a weakening upper-level trough axis will bring an increase in clouds overnight along with the possibility of a few light rain showers or sprinkles, mainly across far northern Missouri.
305 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
922 AM MST FRI NOV 6 2015 THE SHORT WAVE TROF WHICH BROUGHT A COUPLE OF INCHES TO THE ABSAROKAS/BEARTOOTHS LAST NIGHT HAS ALREADY MOVED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. I REMOVED MOST OF THE POPS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY ON THE UPDATE THIS MORNING. SUSPECT 90 PERCENT OF ANY ONGOING PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DISSIPATING BY DAYBREAK SO A DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS LOOKS GOOD WITH THE MOUNTAINS DRYING OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON. ABNORMALLY STRONG NORTHERLY JET STREAM BEHIND THIS WAVE IS STEERED QUICKLY TO THE WEST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A VERY ENERGETIC FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC FORCES A WEAKENING RIDGE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
140 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2015 LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS EXITED THE REGION TO THE EAST IS NOW USHERING IN DRIER AIR AND CONTINUED COOLER TEMPERATURES.
1159 AM CST FRI NOV 6 2015 RAIN AND COLD FRONT HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE DVN CWA TOWARD EASTERN ILLINOIS. COOLER TODAY BUT MORE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S WITH LIGHT WINDS AS 850MB HIGH BEGINS TO NUDGE INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THURSDAY. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.
442 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015 AN ACTIVE DAY WITH NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING HAS QUIETED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MCS/SQUALL LINE HAS MOVED EAST INTO A STRENGTHENING RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE TO THE EAST.
322 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
350 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA MINIMAL. HAVE OPTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS.
WITH COVERAGE INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHED. WHEN THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST.
A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH LATE WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW A VORTICITY MAX AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHING THE OH RIVER AROUND 00-06Z. THERE MAY BE A REPRIEVE POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS MUSCLE BACK INTO THE REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF FORCING.
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE. ML CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE.
121 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
216 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW A VORTICITY MAX AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHING THE OH RIVER AROUND 00-06Z.
220 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THE LOW LEVEL PROFILE HAS GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR, HOWEVER, SPEED SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ALONG WITH THETA-E ADVECTION. THE EC MOS WAS USED FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH HAD SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH IS LIKELY IF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND PART OR MOST OF THE DAY.
THE LARGE RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST STATES REMAINS THE MAIN PLAYER THIS AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT ONE MORE GASP OUT OF THE RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE OVERNIGHT BEFORE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BEFORE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS DISPLACED.
AS A NORTHERN STREAM LONG WAVE TROF/SPEED MAX BARRELS ITS WAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR CANADIAN PROVINCES EN ROUTE TO THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY CLOSER TO US WITH TIME.
THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION HAS ERODED ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH LOW-CLOUDS GENERALLY MIXED OUT. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 83 65 86 67 / 40 30 50 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 84 65 84 66 / 20 30 30 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 82 66 84 65 / 20 30 30 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 84 61 82 62 / 20 20 30 30.
A very slow moving low pressure system is spinning over the Northern Rockies.
155 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015 BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A SHRINKING MARINE LAYER INTO THE WEEKEND.
MODELS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE LIMITED AS 850MB RIDGING LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE.
347 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE AREA. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EDGING EAST OVER THE SOUTHWEST. DEVELOPING PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS. WITH ENERGY ALOFT MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
254 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES FOLLOWED BY WARMER TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
407 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING.
234 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES (ABOVE 6C/KM) ARE ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS, AS THE AIR IS ROTATING AROUND THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS EXTENDING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC GENERATING A LONG FETCH OF EASTERLY WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC. THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AS THE HIGH SHIFT A LITTLE BIT SOUTH. /ISSUED 939 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A SHRINKING MARINE LAYER INTO THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE CLOSER TOWARDS THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE STATE REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SE US AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARM TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 90S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LOWS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN THE MORNING.
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER NORTHERN ID.
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMES TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER BAJA WILL CONTINUE MOVING INLAND.
337 PM PDT Wed May 27 2015 Gradually warmer temperatures through the end of the week.
COLD FRONT ENTERING WESTERN SIDE OF LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. WARMER WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO OUR NORTH WITH MOVE BY TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION (HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH A FEW AROUND 80 READINGS FAR SOUTH).
A THETA-E RIDGE RUNS NORTH TO SOUTH FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE TO THE CONCHO VALLEY. MLCAPES WITHIN THIS RIDGE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE. UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK MID-LVL RIDGING OVER WEST TEXAS. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A LEAD WAVE FROM THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. WITH UPPER-TROUGHING STILL PRESENT AND S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINING A RICH MOISTURE INFLUX. GUIDANCE TEMPS DO SHOW SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.
We will see a transition back to a familiar pattern as a longwave upper trough moves into the Rockies and High Plains Thu/Thu night and sw flow aloft becomes reestablished over the area. The aforementioned upper level trough will weaken as it moves east through the Plains Fri/Sat.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING. RIDGING WILL MOVE IN AND ALLOW FOR QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH ON THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. SUBTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S. SO MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE LAKE. THEN SPREAD POPS ACROSS SRN WI WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WESTERN CWA.
204 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
1237 PM CDT Wed May 27 2015 Weak ridging and slight drying in the low-levels looks to keep instability and storm chances on the low side today.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SAME OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD (ALTHOUGH MAYBE A BIT WEAKER/FURTHER EAST) AND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE H85 CLOSED LOW WITH SFC REFLECTION TRANSLATES INTO FAR NW MINNESOTA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS FROM ROUGHLY MASON CITY TO BURLINGTON BY 12Z THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE PASSES TONIGHT.
Highs Thursday should be a touch warmer than today, given the less coverage of storms.
WITH PLENTY OF SUN ALLOWING TEMPERATURES AT MOST SITES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST UNTIL TONIGHT. DRIER AIR AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A DRY THURSDAY BEFORE THE STORMY PATTERN REASSERTS ITSELF WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO START THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA FAIRLY EARLY IN THE TONIGHT PERIOD. THIS WAS A BIT COOLER THAN CONSENSUS IN THE NORTH BUT THOUGHT IT FIT BETTER WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. UPPER RIDGING WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR A DAY.
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN THURSDAY.
LATE TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
WITH A MIXTURE OF LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES AND WEAK THETA-E RIDGING POOLING MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS SUPPORTING FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT MID MORNING.
112 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015 WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVING INTO IDAHO AND ANOTHER WEAK LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA INTO ARIZONA. CENTRAL CALIFORNIA HAS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE CREST OF THE SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ENSEMBLES REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHIFTING THE LOWS EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BEGIN BUILDING INLAND.
AN UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL IMPACT MUCH OF UTAH THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.
423 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
440 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
345 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015 WEAK RIDGING FOLLOWING LAST NIGHTS SHORT WAVE WAS KEEPING CONVECTION RATHER ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE COASTAL STRATUS HUGGING THE COAST AND CUMULUS BUBBLING UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA REMAINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE SUNNY SKIES WITH MAYBE SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS AROUND ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND COASTAL STRATUS WILL HUG THE COAST AGAIN.
THE LOW LEVEL PROFILE HAS GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR, HOWEVER, SPEED SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ALONG WITH THETA-E ADVECTION.
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH INCREASED MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
TONIGHT AN UPR LOW AND TROF ARE FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM ID AND SOUTHWARD OVR THE GREAT BASIN. THAT UPR TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ON THU.
IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW. HIGH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO RATHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.
247 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015 19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM DANVILLE TO NEAR SAINT LOUIS. A SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY TRICKLE IN FROM THE WEST.
WILL HAVE HIGHEST CHANCES OF STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
241 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.