Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Low pressure north of the Bahamas continues to generate isolated to scattered showers across the Atlantic waters this evening. Considerably less lightning than this time last night due to warmer temperatures aloft. However, cooler 500mb temperatures estimated to be as low as -8 to -8.
Amplifying high pressure centered in the region, in response to western CONUS troughing, will maintain dry and warmer weather heading into the coming day. An upper level trough will be lifting northeast but a dry mid layer will inhibit any cloud cover, let along any precip. Sheltered valleys and low lying areas will be much colder than ridges and urban areas.
Lows will only drop to the lower 50s in many areas.
(Today) Gusty south winds have persisted overnight in response to approaching upper low moving through the Great Basin this morning. Kiamichi RAWS reporting gusts to 47 mph at ridgetop level in southeast OK reflecting strength of low level jet in place. Increased mixing after sunrise will support increasing winds with gusts in the 40-45 mph range likely across much of eastern OK and northwest AR, and at least on the ridgetops in southeast OK.
416 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022 (Today through Monday) Continued dry regime dominated by upper and sfc ridging with only just some cirrus skirting across the area through today into tomorrow. Max temps today should be right around climo norms with much of the area in the low to mid 70s, then warm up to a few degrees higher even for highs Monday at mainly the mid to upper 70s.
This will be ahead of a large trough of low pressure that will deepen over the Rockies and Plains the next couple of days. By Monday morning, a cold front will approach, and will extend from the upper Midwest to west Texas.
In light of the mixing, overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s as forecasted overnight and even warmer tomorrow night as the deeper low level moisture piles in the higher dew points ahead of our big storm late on Monday.
High pressure will build back over the area early in the week and linger into the middle of the week. Low pressure offshore of the NC coast will lift northward tonight through Monday spreading clouds and isold/sct showers mainly along and east of I-95. Weak low pressure will dissipate Monday as it moves inland. Sfc ridging will persist through mid week before negatively tilted trough and associated low pressure approach from the OH Valley.
1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 (Tonight) Upper level ridging will slowly build over the eastern CONUS for the later half of the weekend, and thus have seen an increase in tropical moisture across areas just to our west. The southerly fetch will keep warmer conditions in place overnight compared to a few nights previous, with lows only dropping to the low 50s and upper 40s.
A strong Pacific Northwest trough is currently digging into southern Idaho, with mountain snow and valley rain falling across the west. The trough will continue to dig south and east on Sunday, with the 500mb low centered over Wyoming.
(Today through Monday) Slight ridge building across the southeastern US.
355 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Some thicker high clouds are moving through eastern Kentucky early this morning but a moderately large ridge to valley temperature split is underway, nevertheless. Current surface analysis still has a 1025mb high off to our southeast and that will continue to provide mostly clear skies and warmer temperatures for today and tomorrow. However, as the more potent longwave trough situated over the Central Rockies ejects into the Plains, that weak maxima will be absorbed into the flow and track to the N/NE. Otherwise, Sunday will be very similar to today but with warmer temperatures due to a lack of plummeting overnight temperatures.
Temps at 850 mb and 925 mb looks a bit cooler than the last two days, so highs today should fall a little short of Fri/Sat highs. Winds will have more of a southeasterly component today, so temps will be a little cooler near the lake, especially northward towards Sheboygan. A few showers will likely linger into early Monday, with shower chances gradually increasing from the west through the day as a cold front approaches. Temps will be a little cooler Monday because of the expected showers and clouds, though highs will likely pass the 70 degree mark most places again.
At 09Z (4 AM CDT), an amplified mid-level trough was moving eastward from the Intermountain West toward the Northern Plains. A cold front will progress eastward across KS late today and tonight as the aforementioned system moves northeast into the Dakotas. Hi-res model solutions show around 500 J/Kg of MUCAPE, and an enhancement in the lower atmospheric wind fields this evening would increase low level shear that could support supercellular structures. A more widespread batch of rainfall is expected to move into eastern KS tomorrow as the main upper level trough approaches. The higher QPF still looks to be south and east of the Kansas Turnpike where around one inch of rain is possible.
445 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022 08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure holding on to the east of Kentucky with low pressure found to the west. Although a passing mid level impulse is pushing some variably thick high clouds through the area early this morning, the ridge to valley temperature split is still pretty large. Readings currently range from the upper 50s on the hilltops to the low and mid 40s in the most sheltered spots. They all depict ridging building over eastern Kentucky through Monday in the wake of the weak wave passing this morning. This ridge becomes briefly strong in response to a deep diving trough over northern Texas Monday evening. At night we will continue to see a rather large ridge to valley temperature spread and limited fog development.
Discussion: Early this morning a upper level trough is digging through the central Rockies. This WAA will again allow temperatures to rise into the low to mid 80s. Tonight, the upper level trough will extend from the northern Plains into the Four Corners region. A closed low over western SD ill lift northeast and weaken late Sunday night into Monday morning sagging a cold front into the area. A few strong thunderstorms may develop out ahead of the cold front as it sags into the area tonight. By Monday morning a upper level low will develop in the base of the trough over the Four Corners region. During the day Monday this upper low will move into the southern High Plains.
(Today and tonight) Breezy to windy today as the lee trough along the Texas and New Mexico state line develops today. Temperatures will be a couple degrees cooler today with increasing cloudiness late afternoon, with approach of a strong upper level trough.
This was evident on satellite imagery this afternoon as a cumulus field was along and north of I-59 on the backside of the high. The latest Water Vapor imagery has cirrus spilling over the upper ridge to our west and entering Central Alabama. Cirrus may have some local influences on lows, but overall, still expecting the west to east gradient again but a few degrees warmer than last night. The slight increase in low level moisture today will be replaced by much drier air in the low levels Sunday.
215 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Low pressure off the coast will start to lift northeastward Sunday.
342 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Dry conditions were seen across the region, although an area of low pressure is beginning to take shape over the WY/NE border region.
High pressure centered over the Appalachians will move very little the next several days resulting in a continuation of the fair dry conditions. Low pressure off the Mid Atlantic will bring a few extra clouds and showers to far eastern Virginia today into Monday impacting areas mainly east of Interstate 95. High pressure is centered over our immediate region and will move very little in the near term. There is an area of low pressure centered near the Mid Atlantic Coast but this feature is expected to move north with impacts mainly to the tidewater. Winds are expected to remain light and variable, with the piedmont favoring a northeasterly breeze courtesy of the low pressure system moving up the coast. High pressure across the region will slowly move eastward Monday into Monday night.
-Rain and much cooler temperatures are in the forecast Monday. The strong upper trough now digging into the central Rockies will continue to deepen low pressure across the central high plains overnight. energy in the trough will split with the northern stream energy forecast to emerge into western Nebraska/SD region where HT falls will maximized. Highs will be much cooler in the 50s and 60s.
There will be more sunshine than we had yesterday as a building upper level ridge pushes the thicker high clouds out of the area. This lower humidity, along with a few wind gusts to 15mph, will enhance the on-going drought related fire danger.
Today will see cold northerly flow aloft as the deep upper low slowly drifts to our east. Transient ridging in the northwest flow builds in tonight as the low continues to push away. Monday looks to be slightly warmer but still quite cool and dry as the ridging passes overhead in the northwest flow. Will see an increase in clouds across the north later in the day, as the next upper trough pushes into the PacNW. Nighttime temps will be a bit warmer with lows in the 20s to mid 30s.
A low pressure system will bring showers to the Ohio Valley by midweek. Slightly cooler conditions are expected toward the end of the workweek. Otherwise, persistent southwest flow should keep overnight temperatures a few degrees warmer than last night, with lows from the low-mid 50s in the west to the mid-upper 40s in the east. The Ohio Valley remains sandwiched between high pressure over the eastern seaboard and low pressure over the Plains on Monday and Monday night. Persistent southerly flow in this synotpic setup will help keep temperatures above average with highs in the upper 70s and lows in the lower/middle 50s. A sharp anomalous upper level ridge will also be centered over the region Monday/Monday night keeping conditions mostly dry.
Upper level trough to our east will remain trapped in place while an upper level ridge holds fast across northern Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico through the next several days. An attendent cold front will accompany this next low but will get orphaned as the parent low quickly becomes absorbed in the northern jetstream. Daytime temperatures will generally stay in the lower to mid 80s.
1151 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2022 00Z upper air analysis places an upper level low off the Northeast Florida coast, an upper level low in the Pacific Ocean near Southern California and zonal to southwest flow aloft over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, at the surface southerly winds on the back side of high pressure are present across the region.
Other inland areas will have low temps in the lower to mid 50s with coastal areas being in the lower 60s.
Showers will linger through this morning then taper off early this afternoon as the upper trough continues to shift eastward and weak ridging builds into the region. This is expected to keep overnight temperatures from dropping into the lower/mid 30s for most areas west of the Southern Oregon Cascades. Depending on how quickly clouds spread inland, may see temperatures lower into the low/mid 30s in valleys in Siskiyou County though, including the Shasta Valley.
Water vapor imagery highlights the northeastward progression of the mean layer ridge, with the upper trough axis to our east receding deeper into the western North Atlantic. Temperatures across the island chain are in the mid to upper 70s, on their way to the lower 80s.
The upper trough remains over the Northern Rockies this morning with considerable showers ongoing. Most snow accumulation has been above 4000 feet but heavier showers this morning will bring the potential for a light dusting in the lower valleys (3000 feet and above) across north-central Idaho and west- central Montana. Synoptic lift will diminish as the trough axis moves southeastward into Wyoming this afternoon with a gradual reduction in showers.
Temperature observations showed morning lows ranging from the lower 50s north to the mid 60s south. High pressure remain over the region with generally light E/NE winds for the next few days.
08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure holding on to the east of Kentucky with low pressure found to the west. Although a passing mid level impulse is pushing some variably thick high clouds through the area early this morning, the ridge to valley temperature split is still pretty large. Readings currently range from the upper 50s on the hilltops to the low and mid 40s in the most sheltered spots. They all depict ridging building over eastern Kentucky through Monday in the wake of the weak wave passing this morning. This ridge becomes briefly strong in response to a deep diving trough over northern Texas Monday evening. At night we will continue to see a rather large ridge to valley temperature spread and limited fog development.
High pressure will build back over the area early in the week and linger into the middle of the week. Locations to the east of the Blue Ridge will see chances for showers from mid-afternoon into this evening. Low pressure offshore of the NC coast will lift northward tonight through Monday spreading clouds and isold/sct showers mainly along and east of I-95. Weak low pressure will dissipate Monday as it moves inland. Sfc ridging will persist through mid week before negatively tilted trough and associated low pressure approach from the OH Valley.
Breezy north winds and cooler conditions today in the wake of the cold front.
Highs in the lower 80s coast to near 85 across warmer interior locations.
At 09Z (4 AM CDT), an amplified mid-level trough was moving eastward from the Intermountain West toward the Northern Plains. A cold front will progress eastward across KS late today and tonight as the aforementioned system moves northeast into the Dakotas. Hi-res model solutions show around 500 J/Kg of MUCAPE, and an enhancement in the lower atmospheric wind fields this evening would increase low level shear that could support supercellular structures. A more widespread batch of rainfall is expected to move into eastern KS tomorrow as the main upper level trough approaches. The higher QPF still looks to be south and east of the Kansas Turnpike where around one inch of rain is possible. A cold front will approach from the west late this period.
239 AM PDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Dry and chilly conditions will prevail today following yesterday's cold front passage. Clear skies have allowed temperatures to quickly plummet this morning, with widespread sub-freezing temperatures anticipated through the remainder of the morning. North to northwest flow will promote cooler temperatures overall today. Even the warmer valleys of western NV will only see highs top out in the low 50s.
Baker (Today through Monday) Continued dry regime dominated by upper and sfc ridging with only just some cirrus skirting across the area through today into tomorrow. Max temps today should be right around climo norms with much of the area in the low to mid 70s, then warm up to a few degrees higher even for highs Monday at mainly the mid to upper 70s.
1037 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Mild and dry weather is expected for much of the upcoming week with temperatures above normal, thanks to high pressure. Low pressure off the Mid Atlantic will bring a few extra clouds and showers to far eastern Virginia into Monday. High pressure is centered over our immediate region and will move very little in the near term. There is an area of low pressure centered near the Mid Atlantic Coast but this feature is expected to move north with impacts mainly to the tidewater. Winds are expected to remain light and variable, with the piedmont favoring a northeasterly breeze courtesy of the low pressure system moving up the coast. High pressure across the region will slowly move eastward Monday into Monday night.
224 AM PDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Continued cooler temperatures today along with dry north to east winds.
339 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Southwesterly flow aloft today as the upper-level trough approaches the region. Timing of cold front passage continues to be around sunset into a few hours following. Winds aloft continue southwesterly into Monday before the upper- trough axis moves through Monday evening/night.
621 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 (Today and tonight) Breezy to windy today as the lee trough along the Texas and New Mexico state line develops today. Temperatures will be a couple degrees cooler today with increasing cloudiness late afternoon, with approach of a strong upper level trough.
High pressure will maintain dry and warm conditions today with daytime highs forecast around 10 degrees above normal across the region. Sheltered valleys and low lying areas will be much colder than ridges and urban areas.
550 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Southwesterly flow aloft today as the upper-level trough approaches the region. Timing of cold front passage continues to be around sunset into a few hours following. Winds aloft continue southwesterly into Monday before the upper- trough axis moves through Monday evening/night.
900 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Low pressure will linger off of the east coast through early this week, as a ridge of high pressure holds over Pennsylvania.
712 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Low pressure will linger off of the east coast through early this week, as a ridge of high pressure holds over Pennsylvania.
615 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 (Today) Gusty south winds have persisted overnight in response to approaching upper low moving through the Great Basin this morning. Kiamichi RAWS reporting gusts to 47 mph at ridgetop level in southeast OK reflecting strength of low level jet in place. Increased mixing after sunrise will support increasing winds with gusts in the 40-45 mph range likely across much of eastern OK and northwest AR, and at least on the ridgetops in southeast OK.
The marine platforms are averaging 7 to 14 knots, while temperatures across the island chain are in the lower 80s. Mean layer ridging rooted near Mexico and the western Gulf will fend off two attempts at Gulf Coast clippers, instead shunting them northeast into the Ohio River Valley. Both of these systems will orphan their cold fronts, which will go to die over the Gulf. At the surface, high pressure will steadily sag southward into Florida and the Keys over the next few days.
210 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Mild and dry weather is expected for much of the upcoming week with temperatures above normal, thanks to high pressure. Low pressure off the Mid Atlantic will bring increasing clouds to eastern Virginia into Monday.
An upper level trough currently resides over the U.
- Much cooler (closer to seasonal normals) temperatures expected for the work week.
322 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022 The region remains between high pressure over the Mid Atlantic and low pressure moving from the Rockies toward the Upper Midwest.
246 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022 (This afternoon through Monday) An upper level ridge continues to intensify over much of the Southeast CONUS. Temperatures will gradually climb under the ridge, with afternoon highs mostly in the upper 70s today and upper 70s to low 80s on Monday. An upper level trough currently positioned over the Rockies will amplifying as it moves into the southern Central plains tomorrow.
A warm front ran east and then southeast from the low to near KFSD and then into northeast Missouri. A cold front ran southwest from the low into northeast Colorado. Dew points were in the 50s from the upper Midwest and Great Lakes into the lower Mississippi Valley. Dew points in the 30s and 40s were behind the cold front and low center. The warm front will sweep through the area tonight. After midnight a lull in precipitation should be seen as the cold front moves into the western half of Iowa. On Monday the cold front will move into eastern Iowa by late morning. Cloud cover and eventual rain will keep temperatures cooler but still well above normal for late October. The main rain shield will move from west to east across the area Monday night with the cold front.
1257 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022 The region remains between high pressure over the Mid Atlantic and low pressure moving from the Rockies toward the Upper Midwest.
-Cooler with a chances for showers on Monday, with the best chances across the eastern half of the area. An intense upper level trough was lifting northeast across the high Plains. Otherwise, the better chance for storms may come as the surface cold front pushes southeast across the CWA later Tonight. frontogenesis northwest of the surface front, along with DCVA ahead of the H5 trough axis will provide periods of showers on Monday into Monday night across the CWA.
(Today through Monday) Continued dry regime dominated by upper and sfc ridging with only just some cirrus skirting across the area through today into tomorrow. Max temps today should be right around climo norms with much of the area in the low to mid 70s, then warm up to a few degrees higher even for highs Monday at mainly the mid to upper 70s.
the area saw anywhere from a few hundredths of an inch of rain to around a third of an inch (mainly in the higher elevations. The main concern and forecast dilemma is whether or not we will see freezing temperatures in Central Siskiyou County and South Central Siskiyou County. A cold front is forecast to pass through the area tomorrow afternoon. A cold front will reach the waters early Monday morning with the strongest southerly winds and steep seas north of Cape Blanco.
High pressure will maintain dry and warm conditions this afternoon with daytime highs forecast around 10 degrees above normal across the region. Sheltered valleys and low lying areas will be much colder than ridges and urban areas.
An elongated area of low pressure currently is situated from south- central SD to north-east CO. Temperatures have responded, warming into the 70s and dew point temperatures have seen a nice recovery with readings currently in the low to mid 50s. Warm air advection will continue this evening across our east/southeast ahead of a cold front. As low pressure winds up and occludes as it moves into ND overnight into Monday morning, rain chances will increase across our western zones and over the Missouri Valley. Windy conditions and much cooler temperatures on Monday will make for a blustery day. The highest chances for any measurable pcpn look to be around Wed night/Thu as a trof aloft tracks through the central CONUS, but QPF amounts look low.
244 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Summary: A deep and expansive low pressure will lift north through Minnesota bringing strong winds and some thunderstorms. Warm weather will last another 36 hours or so before a cold front passes, but before that occurs thereâs plenty of weather to happen. A large and expansive area of low pressure will lift north from the Central Plains and pass through the Red River Valley before exiting into Canada Monday. A deep upper low taps into the subtropical jet and advects a lot of tropical moisture northward.
Mid-level longwave trough dropping from the Pacific Northwest will absorb the Baja closed low and the remaining energy from Hurricane Roslyn to further amplify over the Central US while it pushes a cold front through the Mississippi Valley.
(Through Tonight) High pressure ridge will be over the region through Tonight. A weak trough to the east of the area this afternoon, will move to the south of the area this evening. Lows Tonight will range from the lower 50s inland, to the lower 60s coast.