Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
However, surface visibilities remained on the low end thanks to the snow pack. WAA will continue aloft and at the surface with a light southerly flow, which will bring moisture across the area ahead of a trough in the Great Plains. Highs should be a bit warmer vs.
1144 AM CST Sun Jan 3 2021 (Today and tonight) Dense freezing fog over southeast Kansas has been showing minimal expansion to the west and southwest over the past hour or two. we are retaining the mention of freezing fog over much of north-central and central Oklahoma for now. Temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer than yesterday.
These clouds should clear the area by evening with mostly clear skies and light winds again leading to some freezing fog potential tonight. High-res models remain quite bullish on widespread fog development, but proved to be overdone this morning and given that potential may be even lower across our area tonight, have opted to downplay this and stay with the idea of patchy or areas of freezing fog with no advisory planned at this time. Warmer temps expected the next couple of days with NBM likely showing its typical cool bias with daytime temps in these situations.
Have continued with the cooler temperatures as snowfall across portions of the central Sandhills and into north central Nebraska continue to linger. Elsewhere, highs will rise into the low to mid 40s on Monday.
Looking at LAPS soundings, the lowest 1000 ft are above freezing with sfc wet bulb temperatures around 35 or 36 degrees. MVFR cigs look to dominate, with periods of VFR and even IFR on the low end possible before VFR conditions for KBNA/KMQY/KCKV move in by late afternoon.
High pressure will build into Central and southeast Illinois through much of the week. With overnight temperatures mostly in the 20s, some ice depositian on untreated surfaces, particularly bridges and overpasses will be likely adding to the hazardous conditions. Have reduced temps several degrees in areas that received 4"+ snowfall amounts last night as any solar heating will go into melting the snow and keep temps from climbing much above freezing. Southern stream wave digs into the lower Mississippi Valley while northern stream races east into Ontario.
331 PM EST Sun Jan 3 2021 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Much of the 7 day forecast on track to be uneventful - Low clouds and fog expected tonight - Weak trough Monday night to bring some light snow -- Much of the 7 day forecast on track to be uneventful -- Most of the 7 day forecast period will feature split upper flow with no major systems expected to impact the forecast area.
Cooler/drier air is gradually spreading into the cntrl TN Valley from the WNW this Sun morning, with cloud cover diminishing across parts of NW/north cntrl AL. Temps have also been slow to rebound from their earlier morning lows mainly in the upper 30s, given the influx of cooler air, with current trends still in the upper 30s/near 40F. However, there is another upper level low that will move through the Tennessee River Valley tonight. With temperatures down near freezing for lows, patchy freezing fog will be possible as well. The dry airmass will remain in place but the broad trough aloft will lead to the possibility of passing mid to high clouds. High pressure builds into the region from the west Monday night with lows down into the low to mid 30s.
1229 PM EST Sun Jan 3 2021 A mid level low pressure system over the region this morning will move off to the northeast through the day. High pressure will build in tonight and then move off to the east on Monday. A weak cold front will cross the area Monday night followed by another high pressure system. Upper low center near west central Ohio will move northeast, tracking across the northern forecast area for the remainder of this morning. Cannot completely rule out a brief period of freezing drizzle in some locations as temperatures cool ever so slightly later in the night.
CMiller (Issued 339 AM CST Sun Jan 3 2021) Today and Tonight: Weak low pressure tracking across northeast IL overnight is enhancing the low clouds over southern WI. Thus we are seeing reports of freezing drizzle and flurries across southern WI. The low-level temperature profile is right hovering on that line of ice crystals vs. However, high pressure and subsidence will keep the low level moisture locked in place under a strong inversion through tonight, so it's quite possible that we will see another round of dense freezing fog develop this evening.
Between the turbulence over the CONUS and the fair weather to the south, a nearly- stalled cold frontal boundary is about 20 miles to the northwest of the Dry Tortugas, stretching to the northeast to near Fort Myers. Temperatures this afternoon squeaked into the lower 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s, at times as high as 74. Gentle northerly breezes Monday morning will clear out the low level stratus or sea fog, and will introduce a slight rain chance for the island chain.
While the ascent disappears soon after the frontal passage, so do some the low-level winds.
320 PM EST Sun Jan 3 2021 High pressure will build over the region today and Monday.
Lows tonight are expected to range in the lower to mid 30s along and north of I-10 and in the upper 30s to lower 40s along the immediate coast. Highs Monday will be a few degrees warmer than today, with readings in the lower to mid 60s across most locations. The HIGH risk of rip currents was lowered to MODERATE along the Alabama beaches today based on lifeguard observations and decreasing swell. Rip currents were observed to be a little stronger and more frequent along the western Florida panhandle, so the HIGH rip current risk continues along those beaches through 6 PM CST.
Between the turbulence over the CONUS and the fair weather to the south, a nearly-stalled cold frontal boundary is about 50 miles to the northwest of the Dry Tortugas. From synopsis, gentle breezes will become southwest this afternoon in advance of a cold front that will slowly approach from the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
So, they were added on to the High Wind Warning anyways. GAH MORNING DISCUSSION: Another cold front will bring stronger winds through Central and Eastern Montana this afternoon. Although last night started off with boundary layer decoupling, winds started ramping up after midnight to quickly mix out the cooler air. Highs are expected to be in the 40s to lower 50s across the area and with temperatures expecting to be warmer than yesterday, more widespread lower 50s is a possibility and Glasgow Airport could break the previous record high of 50 degrees. A progressive weather pattern is in store beginning with an amplified ridge on Monday with some sun, however, temperatures will not be enhanced by downsloping and will be end up being about 5 to 10 degrees cooler.
Temps will cool off no more than 5 degrees from today's highs across PB/SE NM, and Trans Pecos high temps may even be a few degrees warmer. Residual snow cover across e- se may continue to result in locally cooler temps. There will be a nice warm-up Tue ahead of the next mid-level trof and assocd cold front, 60-65 most areas. Aforementioned trof/front will pass thru the area Wed AM before sunrise and tightest MSLP gradient will be around 12Z Wed. There will be a bit of a secondary surge of cooler air Thur as a deep cold closed low drops s into MS Valley and even into Fri surface ridging will maintain a cool ely low-level component.
That said, am seeing a few locations over the Plateau reporting light snow flurries given surface temperatures in the low/mid 30s. Otherwise, all light rain outside of the higher peaks/ridgetops (gte 3500ft) across southwest VA and East TN where flurries could also occur. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 32 55 38 54 / 20 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 31 51 37 49 / 20 0 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 45 30 51 36 49 / 20 10 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 29 46 34 45 / 30 10 10 20 10.
Then around 08Z or so winds will become northwesterly again as a cold front pushes in. /Issued 308 AM CST Sun Jan 3 2021/ An upper level short wave trough will move northwest to southeast across Kansas today with little fanfare for the Panhandles. A weak cold front will move through the Panhandles Monday morning in association with a short wave trough the moves across the northern Plains. High temperatures on Monday will be about the same as today as the cold air advection is lacking behind this cold front.
A fast moving cold front has swept across the forecast area overnight and will be exiting far eastern Oregon into Idaho this morning. Will still see some snow in the higher elevations through the morning with winter weather advisories still in effect until 10 am. The next system is expected to arrive overnight as a warm front begins lifting northward across the forecast area.
325 PM EST Sun Jan 3 2021 High pressure will remain over the area through the middle of this week.
A fast moving cold front has swept across the forecast area overnight and will be exiting far eastern Oregon into Idaho this morning. Will still see some snow in the higher elevations through the morning with winter weather advisories still in effect until 10 am. The next system is expected to arrive overnight as a warm front begins lifting northward across the forecast area. All sites will rebound back into VFR territory after the warm front passes through the area, with C.
High pressure will build into Central and southeast Illinois through much of the week. With overnight temperatures mostly in the 20s, some ice deposition on untreated surfaces, particularly bridges and overpasses will be likely adding to the hazardous conditions. Have reduced temps several degrees in areas that received 4"+ snowfall amounts last night as any solar heating will go into melting the snow and keep temps from climbing much above freezing. Southern stream wave digs into the lower Mississippi Valley while northern stream races east into Ontario.
Widespread snow/rain will wrap up near I-80 in the next hour as a low pressure system advances to the northeast. There is a slight chance for pockets of freezing drizzle overnight in the ridges, where temperatures fall below 32F, and drier air in the mid-levels negates ice in the clouds.
947 PM EST Sun Jan 3 2021 Weak low pressure trough across the Mid Atlantic will continue to produce spotty light snow and some drizzle and freezing drizzle into Monday. The greatest chance of freezing drizzle and some light icing will be mainly across the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier.
601 PM EST Sun Jan 3 2021 A cold front will push off the coast this evening. High pressure will gradually build over the area from the west Monday through mid week.
603 PM EST Sun Jan 3 2021 High pressure will remain over the area through the middle of this week.
A mid level closed low will begin to cross into the MidSouth over night, dragging a weak surface front toward the ArkLaMiss by tomorrow. Expect lows to fall into the low 40s in the west and mid 30s in the east. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than today.
659 PM EST Sun Jan 3 2021 High pressure will build over the region today and Monday.
Cold fnt associated with this trof is currently analyzed from srn MB swwd into MT and ID, with a prefrontal trof analyzed from the wrn Dakotas swd along the High Plains. Closer to home, it's a pleasant early January day at the moment, with temps generally in the 40s and 50s aside from cooler conditions in portions of the Black Hills and nern WY.
Therefore, added freezing fog for tonight into tomorrow morning over a portion of northern and central Oklahoma. Thompson (This evening through Monday) Freezing fog may develop once again tonight--especially in areas where snow cover kept temperatures cooler this afternoon. Would anticipate any freezing fog to be patchy, but observation trends will have to be monitored tonight. Otherwise, warmer weather will continue on Monday as remnant snow cover continues to melt. Temperatures may still be a few degrees cooler here than surrounding locations tomorrow afternoon.
520 PM CST Sun Jan 3 2021 (This evening through Monday) Visible satellite early this afternoon showed sunny skies across the region, while water vapor satellite showed an upper level trough moving across eastern OK/eastern KS. This stronger thermal ridge and warm downsloping west surface winds were resulting in 12 pm temperatures which were 5-8 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Expect highs this afternoon mainly in the low to mid 60s. With weaker winds overnight and mostly clear skies, expect enhanced radiational cooling area-wide, resulting in cooler lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. A weak and dry cold front will move through the region Monday morning through the afternoon hours.
754 PM EST Sun Jan 3 2021 Weak low pressure trough across the Mid Atlantic will continue to produce spotty light snow and some drizzle and freezing drizzle into Monday. The greatest chance of freezing drizzle and some light icing will be mainly across the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier.
/issued 253 PM EST Sun Jan 3 2021/ The cold front is pushing across the southern zones this afternoon, with just a small area of light showers remaining along the boundary. High pressure builds into the area and will remain in place over the region as the center gradually shifts east through the week.
The low clouds and fog hung tough across much of central and east central WI under the strong inversion, with temps struggling to climb into the middle 20s. Warmer readings are expected over Door County. Then attention turns towards the upper level trough and surface cold front.
Tonight: Warm air building into CWA this afternoon and has allowed most locations to sneak above freezing.
Meanwhile, mixing associated with the trough passage managed to scour the low stratus layer from the eastern Uinta Basin. However, clouds will be increasing Monday night ahead of the next trough to impact the area.
Warm upslope flow continues to spread across Kansas as a dry mid level trough axis translates through southern Kansas. As a result, high temps have varied greatly from the near 50 degrees in north central Kansas to the low 30s under snow covered eastern Kansas. Areas of dense fog develop once again this evening as the low stratus builds back westward under light winds and melting snowpack. Lack of CAA as high pressure builds into the afternoon along with sunny skies translates to highs in the 40s for most areas, allowing much of the snow to melt.
Further west a trough is over the northern/central Great Plains moving east. With ridging approaching our winds are light from the west. The low levels remain moist, and with the ridge axis moving over our CWA, visibilities are expected to go down once again, with dense fog expected west of a line running from McHenry County to Ford County starting around 6 PM and going until mid morning Monday. Winds will back to southwesterly ahead of the trough, and a little breezy in the northern counties. The trough reaches our region Monday afternoon, with some light precipitation expected. Atmospheric profile lowers the atmospheric column temperature below freezing with arrival of this system, so precipitation is expected to be light snow, with little accumulations expected at this time.
(This evening through Monday) Freezing fog may develop once again tonight--especially in areas where snow cover kept temperatures cooler this afternoon. Would anticipate any freezing fog to be patchy, but observation trends will have to be monitored tonight. Otherwise, warmer weather will continue on Monday as remnant snow cover continues to melt. Temperatures may still be a few degrees cooler here than surrounding locations tomorrow afternoon.
An SPS was issued to cover freezing drizzle chances in eastern Tucker County. Previous Discussion: Widespread snow/rain will wrap up near I-80 in the next hour as a low pressure system advances to the northeast. There is a slight chance for pockets of freezing drizzle overnight in the ridges, where temperatures fall below 32F, and drier air in the mid-levels negates ice in the clouds.
No precipitation is anticipated with this low as most of the moisture will be south of the area, and forcing is weak. Despite the clouds, some fog or freezing fog could develop, with the highest chances in the Ozarks and the I-64 corridor. Lows tonight are forecast to be a little below freezing. Tomorrow night, lows near freezing are now forecast, shifted up a couple degrees as models have pulled back some on the southern extent of the trough.
Tonight, temperatures will fall into the mid 50s in the Lower Valley to mid 40s in the northern Ranchlands. Monday, expect light south to southeasterly winds and high temperatures in the low 80s for most locations.
Light northwest flow expected over the forecast area, with clear to mostly clear skies expected under the cool dome of high pressure. High pressure builds into the region in the wake of the cold front advecting in cooler, drier air.
424 PM MST Sun Jan 3 2021 Water vapor imagery shows a trough axis across western MT into central ID. This trough will push across the forecast area this evening. Will keep the high wind warning for Natrona County ongoing through 5 PM as winds still remain near high wind. A transitory ridge is expected tonight into Monday morning, but still expect very light snow/flurries mainly in the far western mountains. At the same time a trough will push into the West Coast.
701 PM EST Sun Jan 3 2021 High pressure will build over the region through Monday.
High pressure that has built over the region will continue to decrease winds and waves throughout today into the evening.
511 PM CST Sun Jan 3 2021 High clouds are moving out of our airspace but will be back late tonight from the west briefly ahead of a cold front that will begin moving into our airspace early on Monday and through the day Monday. Under mostly clear skies, temperatures overnight to range from the lower 30s across southeast Oklahoma to the lower 40s across north Louisiana. High temperatures on Monday to climb into the lower 60s.
The low clouds have eroded further than initially projected, as far north as around Decatur and Paris. Surface obs showing the fog is fairly widespread west of a La Salle to Jacksonville line, and the high-res model guidance shows it becoming widespread over most of the area, though the areas near I-70 are more questionable. With overnight temperatures mostly in the 20s, some ice deposition on untreated surfaces, particularly bridges and overpasses will be likely adding to the hazardous conditions. Have reduced temps several degrees in areas that received 4"+ snowfall amounts last night as any solar heating will go into melting the snow and keep temps from climbing much above freezing. Southern stream wave digs into the lower Mississippi Valley while northern stream races east into Ontario.
With winds decreasing in Natrona County, we allowed the High Wind Warning to expire. Water vapor imagery shows a trough axis across western MT into central ID. This trough will push across the forecast area this evening. Will keep the high wind warning for Natrona County ongoing through 5 PM as winds still remain near high wind. A transitory ridge is expected tonight into Monday morning, but still expect very light snow/flurries mainly in the far western mountains. At the same time a trough will push into the West Coast.
At this time, it looks like this will be a mainly light event, save for the immediate MT/ID border and some of the higher terrain of Gallatin and Madison Counties. My main concern as of this update is the possibility for brief periods of heavy snow, especially as the cold front pushes through the area tomorrow night.
Morning lows warm slightly as well, but will still be chilly, generally in the low 40s. The weather this week will likely be a classic example of why so many people flock to the lower deserts each winter. After one more day of seasonal temperatures, with highs in the mid-60s, temperatures will rise several degrees with low to mid level warming as high pressure builds into the Desert Southwest during the early week. There will also be little change in the sensible weather conditions through the week with a mix of sun and high clouds, light winds, low humidity, and morning lows in the low 40s with afternoon highs in the upper 60s to low 70s across the lower deserts.
A mix of breezy winds, showers, and periods of sunshine will continue behind todayâs cold front. Showers during the daytime do not appear to have much impact, but Monday evening and overnight will need to be monitored for changing conditions with the next cold front passage.
Temperatures range from the lower 50s to upper 40s with a light southerly winds.
A weak trough of low pressure will move through western Kansas this evening shifting southwestern winds to the northwest. Lee troughing then develops tomorrow shifting winds back to a southerly direction. As for temperatures, lows tonight look to range from the upper 20s to low 30s with highs tomorrow reaching into the low to mid 50s.
High pressure at the surface centered over the Gulf South this evening with light south flow around it occurring over the forecast area. A weak cold front will move across during Monday afternoon. High pressure is moving across Louisiana this afternoon and is roughly centered near the Baton Rouge area.
709 PM EST Sun Jan 3 2021 Aviation - Much of the 7 day forecast on track to be uneventful - Low clouds and fog expected tonight - Weak trough Monday night to bring some light snow -- Much of the 7 day forecast on track to be uneventful -- Most of the 7 day forecast period will feature split upper flow with no major systems expected to impact the forecast area.
920 PM EST Sun Jan 3 2021 A cold front will continue to push off the coast this evening. High pressure will gradually build over the area from the west Monday through mid week.
Morning lows will warm slightly as well, but still be chilly generally in the low 40s. The weather this week will likely be a classic example of why so many people flock to the lower deserts each winter. After one more day of seasonal temperatures, with highs in the mid-60s, temperatures will rise several degrees with low to mid level warming as high pressure builds into the Desert Southwest during the early week. There will also be little change in the sensible weather conditions through the week with a mix of sun and high clouds, light winds, low humidity, and morning lows in the low 40s with afternoon highs in the upper 60s to low 70s across the lower deserts.
618 PM CST Sun Jan 3 2021 The extent of fog and potential impact of freezing fog is the short term forecast challenge. An additional concern will be temperatures dropping below freezing toward morning resulting in the potential for some slick roads during the morning commute. The split upper flow will merge to form an upper level ridge forming over the Rockies on Monday. Locally this will result in south winds ushering in a return of warmer air.
While it has become rather breezy across the west, the cold front and strongest pressure rises remain well back into central and even western Montana. Forecast highlights in the short term period will be gusty winds associated with a cold frontal passage mainly this evening, along with slight chances for some light precipitation. Mid level wave will advance east across the Northern Plains tonight, dragging a cold front through western and central ND this evening, and eastern ND overnight. High pressure builds into the region from west to east overnight through Monday morning, clearing the sky and resulting in diminishing winds. Cooler for Monday but still mild with highs from the 30s north and east to the mid 40s southwest.
Running 2-5 degrees warmer, as of 2 pm, versus 24 hours ago with high clouds passing through.