Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THERE ARE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS THIS EVENING FROM LEFT OVER INSTABILITY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. EMBEDDED IN THIS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON. MODELS SHOW THIS LOW MOVING OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS IN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ON FRIDAY. LOOK FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING.
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. LOOK FOR THE COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND USHER IN A COLDER AIR MASS. LEADING TO SNOW IN THE LOWER PASSES.
138 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015 WARM TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. FRIES COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LOWS WILL DIP DOWN BELOW FREEZING FOR SOME LOCATIONS TONIGHT. CREATING A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL ALSO CREATE A NICE DEFORMATION ZONE. AREAS ACROSS OUR CENTRAL NEBRASKA COUNTIES WILL SEE THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS.
153 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015 LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS EVENING TRACKS EAST AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR RAIN AND MODERATING TEMPS INTO FRIDAY. COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.
429 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015 WARM TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA.
507 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015 CIRCULATION AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION INTO FRIDAY.
345 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015 MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TODAY. AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 80S EAST AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S INTERIOR AND WEST. AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD.
343 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015 PRECIPITATION IS ON THE WANE AS A RIDGE SLIDES ALONG FRONT RANGE AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY.
FORCING THE ATTENDANT DEVELOPING COLD FRONT SEWD INTO OUR REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
AND AN APPROACHING STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF. THE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF. WILL RACE A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD TODAY. TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AS LOWS RETURN TO THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. BUT ALSO THE LOW CONFIDENCE OF THE OCCURENCE OF THE EVENT IN GENERAL. THEN MODELS SUGGEST A DIGGING TROF OVER THE WESTERN U.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH AND DRIVES A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING IS TIED TO A SURFACE BASED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA. UNDER SUBSIDENCE FROM THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE AND LIMITED MOISTURE. EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. ON FRIDAY THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN THE WAKE.
348 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS TODAY. COOLER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR A FEW DAYS.
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT BRINGS PRECIP TO THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LARGE UPPER LOW THAT MOVED BY TO OUR SOUTH YDAY IS NOW HEADING INTO THE PLAINS. TODAY WE WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER WASHINGTON.
DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY, KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND LIMITING RAIN CHANCES.
430 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015 EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST RIDGING WWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG TROF DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING. IN THE SHORT TERM THE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. POPS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIP SWD THROUGH THE AREA AT THAT TIME.
335 AM PDT THU APR 9 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR TODAY.
237 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015 WARM TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA.
131 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015 CIRCULATION AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION INTO FRIDAY.
338 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015 CIRCULATION AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION INTO FRIDAY.
136 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015 A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL COMBINE TO KEEP MOIST AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. PUSHING ITS SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. MAY BE A RELATIVE LULL FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AS ANY MORNING CONVECTION MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND MAIN FORCING WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ARRIVE TOWARDS EVENING. CONSIDERING THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND STRENGTH OF COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
1218 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015 SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN FALLING IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SD THIS EVENING HAS ACCUMULATED TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF INCH AT PIERRE AND MOBRIDGE. RADAR ECHOES IN WESTERN SD AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LIFT FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN. WILL STAY WITH THE HIGH POPS FOR TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND OVER IOWA BY THURSDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SEASONAL LOWS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
357 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015 FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA ON FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE ON THE LOWER SIDE. NAM IS LOWER AROUND THIS TIME AND DEPICTS THE HIGHER VALUES EARLIER IN THE NIGHT AND AGAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. EXPECT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND EVEN THOUGH THE SHEAR IS ON THE LOWER SIDE.
WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND REACH WESTERN KY BY 06Z FRIDAY. LATEST GFS40 FORECAST HAS THE COLD FRONT ENTERING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION AS THE PERIOD STARTS.
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS A GOOD KICKER MOVING TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE NOW AND A DEEPENING TROUGH HEADED SOUTH QUICKLY IN IT/S WAKE. THE LONGER RANGE IS SPREAD OUT WET AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS SLOWLY BACK NORTH UNDER A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW.
FURTHER SOUTH THE LOW LVL FLOW WILL BE MORE NNWLY SO PCPN CHANCES SHOULD BE LOWER FROM DENVER SOUTHWARD. AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S OVER NERN CO.
THE H5 TROUGH/COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION IS KEEPING WIDESPREAD GUSTS TO 30 AND 40 MPH GOING THROUGHOUT EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO. ALLOWING LOW TEMPS TONIGHT TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 20S AT MANY LOCATIONS AND A HARD FREEZE FOR THE LOW VALLEYS. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING AFTER THE COOLER WEATHER OF TODAY AND THU.
TEMPS WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 50S. INCREASING DEWPOINTS TOMORROW COUPLED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S SHOULD MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING SNOW IN AREAS SOUTH OF US 6 WHERE THERE ARE ONLY A FEW INCHES REMAINING.
THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE 2 PM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S AT FREEPORT TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED A SPLIT FLOW WITH A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHILE A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG. THE RESULT WILL BE A WARMER NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH. THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO BE SUNNY ALL DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WITH BARE GROUND AND A SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DESPITE A WIND SHIFT TO WESTERLY (DOWNSLOPING). WHICH SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. AND THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN DRY.
THE WARM FRONT IS ROUGHLY BETWEEN I-10 AND U. AREAS OF SEA FOG CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS THE HIGHER TEMP/DEWPT AIR IN THE 60S AND EVEN 70S MOVES OVER SHELF WATER TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S. THE UPPER LEVEL AND SFC TROF IS EXPECTED TO SLOW IT EASTWARD PROGRESSION TUE INTO WED. DML SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. WATER VAPOR SHOWED ABUNDANT MOISTURE FLOWING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THIS TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN INTO THE MIDSOUTH. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE AND A SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA.
314 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE COAST BY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BY TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING SOME OVERNIGHT LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.
IN RESPONSE TO WARM FRONT MOVG NWD AS UPPER TROUGH HAS BEGUN TO EJECT AND MOVE ACROSS THE TX BIG BEND. NORTH OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT THAT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT N INTO DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
133 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015 18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH 1. 5 PVU SURFACE INDICATING ANOTHER TROUGH SLIDING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. BIAS CORRECTED FIELDS THOUGH DO SUPPORT A FEW READINGS IN THE LOW 70S SO PLAN TO KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS VALUES. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW H5/H7 RIDGE FLUCTUATING FROM THE WEST COAST ON INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ROCKIES. WILL ALLOW FOR THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE. RIDGE AXIS WILL NOSE OUT OVER THE PLAINS REGION FOR POTENTIALLY THE WARMEST PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED.
550 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
207 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT BRINGS RAIN TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BY MIDWEEK. FOLLOWED BY A LOW PRESSURE LATE WEEK. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. CAN NOT RULE OUT WATER PROBLEMS IF THE HIGHER END AMOUNTS ARE OBSERVED. WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 50S TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MOST IF NOT ALL OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS OUR TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THAT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR REGION.
104 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL RETURNS AFTERNOON WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION, BUT BRING COOLER AIR WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION, BUT PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IN WINDS GENERALLY 5KTS OR LESS. EXPECT RESIDUAL RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND MAIN ENERGY OF THE NORTHERN SYSTEM BEING FAR TO THE NORTH TO KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY. THIS NORTHERLY SYSTEM TRACKING OVER JAMES BAY WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION.
1202 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2015 We're watching moisture transport across Oklahoma and Arkansas this morning in advance of a quasi-cutoff trough of low pressure. Highs on will range from the lower 50s over the eastern Ozarks, to the middle 60s across the Osage Plains.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT ALONG WITH SLOWLY INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP TEMPS MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT. WENT WARMER THAN MOST MODELS FOR HIGHS TOMORROW. KEPT HIGHS COOLER IN THE SOUTH WITH THE DEEPER SNOW PACK.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BENEFICIAL RAIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND IS NEARING VAL VERDE COUNTY. HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING NEAR THE LOW CENTER IN THE EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME CAPE UNDERNEATH THE LOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER AS WELL.
The models were also depicting some upper level divergence this afternoon and tonight over much of our area ahead of the approaching upper level trough and in the right entrance region of an upper level jet streak over the Great Lakes region.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND FAVORABLE AIR TRAJECTORIES HAVE ALLOWED ISLAND AIR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S. THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THIS HIGH CELL.
337 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.
MID/UPPER FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SW THIS EVENING AS SHRTWV ENERGY EJECTS FROM A PERSISTENT UPPER TROF OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH WED NIGHT.
THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE ROCKIES. WITH A TROUGH MOVING THRU THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. A TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND A MILD AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE. THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY AND WARM FOR TUESDAY WITH H85 TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 60S TO THE LOW 70S. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP NEAR 20 PERCENT OR IN THE LOW 20TH PERCENTILE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. THE PATTERN CONTS BONE DRY AND SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER THAN NORMAL. COOLER. SUN: BREEZY AND MUCH WARMER.
109 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT BRINGS RAIN TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BY MIDWEEK. FOLLOWED BY A LOW PRESSURE LATE WEEK. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL TODAY WITH RELAXED WINDS AND DRY WEATHER. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO INCREASE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MOST IF NOT ALL OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS OUR TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
TUE SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH BUT STILL ABOUT THE SAME ACROSS THE SOUTH.
12Z SUBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED A SPLIT FLOW WITH A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHILE A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG. THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING ELONGATED WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING FROM WEST-TO-EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AND ACTIVE TROFFINESS OVER THE GRT BSN AND SW PLAINS. BUT UPSTREAM SECONDARY UPPER TROF CURRENTLY ACRS UT/WEST CO WILL LOOK TO SCOOT ACRS WESTERN IA BY TUE MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH THICKENING HIGH CLOUD SHIELD ACRS AT LEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA OFF LOWER MS RVR VALLEY PASSING LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX. WILL MAKE FOR LOWS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE SOUTH TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH WIND TO MAINTAIN ENOUGH ALONG WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS/CIRRUS TO LIMIT MUCH OF ANY FOG THREAT LATE TONIGHT.
241 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015 UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT. SOME SHOWERS COULD CLIP THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE FROM THE SHIELD OF RAIN THAT KEEPS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY HAVE MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST. BUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER WEST TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL DROP INTO THIS UPPER TROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FINE EARLY SPRING WEATHER IS IN STORE THROUGH TUESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTING FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS TODAY BRINGING ABOUT A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
303 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015 QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN US. EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST WED NIGHT WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. SHOULD SEE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. BUT IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET MUCH WARMER THAN THE MID 50S IF THE GFS/NAM VERIFY WITH H7 TEMPS AROUND -2 DEG C. WARMEST DAY WILL BE WED WITH DOWNSLOPING AND GOOD SUBSIDENCE WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD.
SOME PESKY MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN INTO WISC SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS WEAK AND BAGGY MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN AND IT IS HARD TO SEE MUCH CLOUDINESS ANYWHERE LATER THIS EVENING OR TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING CENTRAL CANADA TONIGHT WILL DRAG A WEAK FRONT SOUTHWARD.
301 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2015 Low pressure currently over south Texas will begin to lift northeastward tonight, reaching the Arkansas/Louisiana border by 12z Tue. Deep trof over the central US will continue to be the trigger for a couple of waves that will lift out of the southern Miss valley and lift into the OH valley over the next 7 days.
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL REMAIN IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS, RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF LIGHT WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WINDS. WE WILL BE STAYING IN THE SAME AIRMASS WITH ESSENTIALLY NO ADVECTION GOING ON WITH SUCH LIGHT WINDS AND AN AMORPHOUS TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FIELD IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE.
332 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC RESULTS IN RAIN ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INCREASE MOISTURE THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
240 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015 AN H5 TROUGH IS SWINGING OVER THE BIG BEND. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG FARTHER SOUTH AND BRING MORE ACTIVITY TO NORTHEASTERN MEX THAN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
131 PM PDT MON MAR 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING SOME OVERNIGHT LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.
An upper level trough lies over the SWrn states with a +PV anomaly over W TX. Low level isentropic lift along the Gulf coast east of the warm front will keep much of the area cloudy today, but despite this cloud cover we are on track to reach highs in the 70s.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN RUNNING ON THE HIGH SIDE THE PAST FEW DAYS FOR DEWPOINTS.
1131 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
1222 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015 18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH 1. 5 PVU SURFACE INDICATING ANOTHER TROUGH SLIDING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. BIAS CORRECTED FIELDS THOUGH DO SUPPORT A FEW READINGS IN THE LOW 70S SO PLAN TO KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS VALUES.
658 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST OF THE STATE THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. THE PLAINS WILL SEE READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WHILE THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE 40S AND 50S.
NORTH OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT THAT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT N INTO DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WARM FRONT MAY APPROACH SOUTHERN CWA BY LATE AFTN. SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION POSSIBLE NEAR WARM FRONT.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEST COAST RIDGE WITH DRY W/NW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. WITH TEMPS VERY NEAR IF NOT A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A HARD TIME RESOLVING THE LOW DEWPOINTS ACRS THE REGION.
247 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.
STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS REDUCED. A 591 DM H5 RIDGE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
WITH SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS COOLER THU. PREFER THE WARMER ECMWF THAT HAS BEEN THE BEST WITH THIS VERY WARM REGIME WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW LEFT. 925MB TEMPS ARE ABOUT 5C WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. SO AREAS IN THE VALLEY SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 50S. GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 30S.
319 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
Passing upper trof through the day Tuesday should boost highs out west near 70, although cooled east just a degree or two for less mixing and a few more clouds.
351 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ON THEIR WAY TO THE LOW TWENTIES THIS AFTERNOON /POSSIBLY TEENS IN SOME AREAS/. ALTHOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER AS COMPARED TO MONDAY.
107 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1022 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/ THE 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WAS EXTENDING NORTHEAST OUT TEXAS.
OVERNIGHT FORECAST IS A CHALLENGE AS REINFORCING RIDGE PUSHES IN AND USHERS IN DRIER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE.
612 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE COAST BY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BY TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.
252 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.