Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will end from west to east after midnight as the upper trough and associated front move across. Lows tonight will range from the low 60s inland to mid and upper 60s along the coast. The southwesterly wind flow ahead of the mid to upper level trough will bring low level moisture back into the area after the initial line of storms moves east. MLCapes will rebound to between 1000 to 1500 J/KG this evening, with mid level lapse rates near 7 C/KM, ahead of a secondary round of storms moves in from the west along the cold front. The cold front will sweep through the region late night into Saturday morning. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 60s, with upper 60s along the beaches.
Active weather pattern is expected to bring precipitation chances to the region throughout the mid and long range as a series of troughs move across the Plains.
The cold front that spawned the tornado has since pushed off to the east where it is continuing to produce severe storms across parts of southeast Louisiana into MS and AL. The center of the upper low associated with the front is currently near Monroe, LA and is swinging wrap around cloud cover through the area. The upper low will push off to the east by early tomorrow as upper level ridging builds into area setting up a very pleasant weekend.
Drier air aloft is expected to filter in behind the upper low and cause clouds to scatter out overnight.
646 PM CDT Fri May 12 2017 /00Z TAFs/ Cyclonic north flow aloft will continue in wake of a departing upper trough over the Mississippi/Tennessee valleys. VFR cigs are expected on and off through early afternoon Saturday, before drier air arrives from the west in wake of the departing upper trough. /ISSUED 231 PM CDT Fri May 12 2017/ Cold air advection will continue across the region tonight in the wake of an upper low currently moving toward the lower Mississippi Valley. An amplified ridge of high pressure will build over the state on Saturday and result in a mostly sunny and pleasant day with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 70s to the middle 80s.
724 PM EDT Fri May 12 2017 A ridge of high pressure will slowly build into the Ohio Valley this weekend as it moves in from the Upper Midwest.
914 PM EDT Fri May 12 2017 Low pressure will develop along a stationary front located across South Carolina and move northeast across the central Mid- Atlantic tonight through Saturday.
On Mother's Day, an upper ridge axis will be located just to our west. So, much warmer with highs into the lower and mid 80s. In the ext fcst, upper ridging to control the weather through mid week with 850 mb temps in the 15C-18C degree range. The ridge axis will shift east of the mid state by late in the week.
Some weak showers are developing over the mountain ridges due to daytime heating over the elevated terrain. A few thunderstorms will be possible over the higher terrain for the next few hours. Temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than today. As the axis of the upper-level ridge propagates eastward, mid-level flow will be southwesterly with slightly warmer and drier conditions at the surface. There's a slight chance for lingering showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm Saturday evening on the eastern plains before 9 pm, otherwise mostly clear conditions for the majority of the forecast area with lows around 50 in the plains and 30s in the high country.
With the continuing advance of the mid level trough/surface inverted trough axes, deep moisture may not reach as far north as expected earlier. The southeast ridges still stand to get the most overnight rainfall.
634 PM CDT Fri May 12 2017 The upper level low responsible for the storms the last couple of days has now settled well into AR and continues to move to the southeast. With its exit, temperatures have climbed into the low to mid 70s and skies have cleared with the exception of a cumulus field moving south across MO.
1159 PM CDT Fri May 12 2017 The upper level low responsible for the storms the last couple of days has now settled well into AR and continues to move to the southeast. With its exit, temperatures have climbed into the low to mid 70s and skies have cleared with the exception of a cumulus field moving south across MO.
Southwest flow aloft increases on Saturday as the upper ridge axis shifts eastward. Mountains and adjacent plains should see southwest to southerly winds increase during the afternoon as the sfc lee trof deepens and kicks eastward in response. upper low to maintain some isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon.
High pressure will bring VFR conditions and light winds thru the forecast period. /Issued 921 PM CDT Fri May 12 2017/ Skies have finally cleared out across most of the area in the wake of the departing upper low.
Clouds will lower and thicken Overnight ahead of an approaching cold front. This cold front will cross late Saturday into Saturday night, with showers and storms moving East Northeast across the region ahead of it from late morning on. Southwest winds expected to further increase to 15 to 20 knots overnite as a cold front approaches.
Weak low level low pressure remains over the Great Lakes region this afternoon. with the upper level trough now extending thru Ontario and Lower Michigan into the Ohio Valley. Small area of light rain/sprinkles continues to develop along the trough axis. Area of low/mid cloud along the trough axis continues to slowly push east thru Northern Lower Michigan where moisture is insufficient for any precip production. Low temps tonight will range from the mid 30s in Eastern Upper Michigan to the lower 40s near Saginaw Bay.
The southwesterly wind flow ahead of the mid to upper level trough will bring low level moisture back into the area after the initial line of storms moves east. MLCapes will rebound to between 1000 to 1500 J/KG this evening, with mid level lapse rates near 7 C/KM, ahead of a secondary round of storms moves in from the west along the cold front. The cold front will sweep through the region late night into Saturday morning. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 60s, with upper 60s along the beaches.
614 PM CDT Fri May 12 2017 Very quiet weather expected in the short term, as an area of high pressure edges southeast into the mid-Mississippi Valley. Another cooler night on tap with lows a couple degrees either side of 50, coolest over eastern Illinois.
Water Vapor Satellite trends this afternoon show an upper level low centered over Southwest Arkansas with a 700 mb deformation zone extending northeast into the Mid-South. This has resulted in additional development of showers and a few isolated showers and thunderstorms across the Lower Mississippi Valley as indicated by regional WSR-88D radars. Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will gradually begin to diminish across the Mid-South tonight as the upper level low moves southeast away from the area. Lows tonight will be slightly cooler in the middle 50s near the MO/KY border and upper 50s to lower 60s south.
A weak warm front extended from southern North Dakota through the Fargo/Moorhead area to near Hibbing. Temperatures tonight will be quite chilly again across northern Minnesota with lows around 30 degrees (and a few upper 20s in normally cooler locations).
A line of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the cold front will approach the northern forecast area late tonight.
Very quiet weather expected in the short term, as an area of high pressure edges southeast into the mid-Mississippi Valley. Another cooler night on tap with lows a couple degrees either side of 50, coolest over eastern Illinois.
530 PM update to slow northward expansion of PoPs along the ridges slightly, per radar and hi-res model trends. Mid-level trough and surface inverted trough slowly swing through overnight, with decreasing rain coverage by morning as deeper moisture is shunted east.
Kept pops on the low end, just mentioning isolated showers.
149 PM EDT Fri May 12 2017 We'll experience one more rain-free day, under the influence of high pressure.
WV imagery indicates a closed upper low moving southeast across the Ark-La-Tex Region. Meanwhile, upper level ridging is transitioning eastward across the Central Rockies. Sunshine and warmer temperatures will allow for some drying of this recent wet storm. There remains a flood threat in Trego county along Big Creek and perhaps a little later into Ellis county by tonight, so todays warmer and sunny weather may be welcome. High pressure at the surface will move east of the area by evening and eventual return to southerly flow.
Tonight, temperatures will be noticeably cooler as another night of radiational cooler sets up with lows dipping into the lower 60s inland and in the mid to upper 60s along the coast and the Rio Grande.
For today, expect near normal daytime temperatures and breezy southwest winds as a longwave trough builds across the western United States.
Conditions are expected to improve later this afternoon and evening as the upper level low exits to the southeast. /Issued 1050 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017/ Upper level low currently spinning over extreme southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas will continue to drift to the southeast Today.
High pressure shifts enough east and southeast tonight to allow for weak return flow to develop toward Saturday morning. Thus, should be a slightly warmer night and kept temperatures in the in the upper 40s/lower 50s for the forecast area.
Weather pattern will remain relatively quiet over the next few days as area falls in between upper low pressure currently over Oklahoma and another upper low slowly working ESE into western Ontario. As these upper level features shift into eastern NOAM, expect a general troughiness to expand across the central Great Lakes.
Highs near 80 will occur along the lee of the Buffalo Ridge in west central Minnesota, with 70s elsewhere. The period starts out with mid level ridging overhead, with the area sandwiched in between an upper low over British Columbia and a closed low over the Northeast.
Along and south of the boundary column warmer allowing temperatures to range in the 70s to around 80. Mid level ridge axis shifts the the central Dakotas tonight. A warm front along the dakotas border region will become better organized and lift northward during the day.
Temperatures rebounding nicely and are on track to reach the lower 70s. Meanwhile further northwest, a weak trough of low pressure currently extending from central Wisconsin to eastern Iowa may trigger a few light showers this afternoon. High temperatures will reach the lower 70s. Prevailing upper trough over the Great Lakes will begin to shift eastward over the weekend, resulting in rising upper heights and warming temperatures across central Illinois. A weak wave is expected to slide southeastward along the back side of the departing trough on Saturday: however, any light precip associated with this feature will remain well to the northeast near Lake Michigan.
The snow level will drop strongly behind the cold front, and snow will accumulate. Afternoon highs on Sat will get above freezing enough to melt the snow unless you are higher than 9000 ft elevation.
High pressure to the South will move Southeast Tonight. An approaching cold front will reach SE GA Saturday afternoon.
207 PM CDT Fri May 12 2017 Very quiet weather expected in the short term, as an area of high pressure edges southeast into the mid-Mississippi Valley. Another cooler night on tap with lows a couple degrees either side of 50, coolest over eastern Illinois.
South to southwest winds will increase late Saturday morning as the pressure gradient tightens in response to a developing sfc trof of low pressure over ern CO and ern NM. /Issued 510 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017/ Upper level low pressure system will exit the area today with dry northerly flow in place. Temperatures will continue on the rise over the next few days, as the ridge of high pressure moves over the central CONUS.
A second cluster of showers and thunderstorms is projected to move eastward into our area just ahead of an approaching cold front, starting at DHN and ECP around 09Z. A closed upper low over Oklahoma early this morning will translate east southeastward into northern Mississippi this evening. At that time, the associated cold front will extend southwestward from a low over central Mississippi to the western Gulf.
132 PM CDT Fri May 12 2017 Updated for 18Z aviation discussion 18Z TAF discussion: Expect variable ceilings along with scattered SHRA/TSRA in association with passage of upper low across the forecast area late this afternoon/evening. The primary concern for severe weather potential will be redevelopment of storms later this afternoon and into the early evening as the upper low moves into the ArkLaMiss region.
Upper low is now centered over Muskogee Oklahoma, per data from the GOES-16 satellite (preliminary/non-operational data). Convection will continue ahead of the upper low, with the greatest coverage of precipitation expected across southeast sections. with a deepening upper level trough over the Rockies by Wed.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): The cold front is slowly meandering southward across the CWA, and can be delineated by cloud cover or the lack thereof. Temperatures north of the boundary will fall into the lower 60s in the drier regime, while areas near and south of the front will still reach around 70 degrees. Temperatures will stay similar to today's highs, reaching the low to mid 90s.
Models started out well on the low level thermal but tended to be slightly cool. Ridging aloft will make for dry conditions and warmer temperatures. Ridging aloft moves east of the area as the next storm system digs into the western portion of the country. The combination of the approaching system and the strong flow aloft will cause a lee trough to develop. Deep southwest flow aloft and warm air advection will bring an additional increase in the high temperatures.
Low pressure will develop along a stationary front located across South Carolina and move northeast across the central Mid-Atlantic tonight through Saturday.
327 PM EDT Fri May 12 2017 An upper level low continues to shift into the southern Mississippi river valley this afternoon, with a frontal boundary draped across the Tennessee/Kentucky state line. However, low clouds may linger through most of the night and may actually build down onto the ridges tonight. Thus, will confine the fog to mainly the higher ridges. Fog/stratus will give way to clearing on Saturday as mid level ridging slides southeast over the region. Clear skies and light winds will allow for a cool Saturday night with temperatures into the 40s in most locations (outside of ridges). The period is expected to begin with a trough extending from Hudson and James Bay Regions southeast into New England with ridging from the Gulf of Mexico north through the MS Valley and a large trough encompassing much of the Western Conus.
105 PM EDT Fri May 12 2017 A moisture-rich environment and a low pressure system tracking across the area will result in periods of showers and thunderstorms at all TAF sites through the evening. Most rain should exit around midnight, but as cooler air builds in behind a cold front, low cigs are expected through the night and tomorrow morning.
227 PM CDT Fri May 12 2017 GOES-16 water vapor imagery depicted an upper low slowly spinning through AR. The latest short range and mesoscale models indicate the upper low will be slower and tracking further south into MS and AL tonight into Saturday morning. This as the cold front over northern TN sinks southward. Further south, activity is a bit more conditional as the upper low drops into MS. The NAM in particular shows very little activity in north AL this evening, with the surface/850mb convergence zone activating as the upper low drops into MS. On Mother's Day, highs should reach the u70s-l80s as an 850mb ridge over the Ozark Plateau builds into the southeast U.
Water vapour showed upper ridge pushing into the northern Plains. Upper low spinning off the WA coast. Today, weather will be dominated by upper ridge with temperatures 10- 15F above normal. Saturday, upper low moves onshore into the northwest US/southwest Canada.
However, overall changes will remain minor as the upper level low and deformation zone will move across the area for the remainder of today. Should see a band of shower and thunderstorms develop along the deformation zone north of the track of the upper low invof of the stationary boundary. As the day progresses the airmass will destabilize as the cold air aloft associated with the upper low moves over a relatively warm and moist boundary layer. By late this afternoon as the upper low tracks into NW Mississippi rain chances will diminish across Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Kept fairly high pops going across Northeast Mississippi into the evening hours as the upper low does not exit into Alabama until after midnight.
Forecast for tonight is difficult with many boundaries across the area and an upper low projected to pass over the area. The center of the upper low was currently over southern Arkansas. The upper low center will track eastward overnight and into central Alabama. The higher rainfall chances should be across west Alabama this evening, shifting into the eastern and southern counties after midnight as the upper low moves into the area. A few storms possible across the southeast counties in the morning as a cold front pushes through the area.
The weather highlights the next 24 hours include: warmer highs than yesterday, largely cloud-free skies, and modest southerly breezes. Water vapor imagery depicts a weak closed upper low moving east over OK and upstream a ridge extending from the Southwest US to southern Alberta/Saskatchewan. Another closed upper low is located farther upstream offshore the Pacific Northwest coast. Quiet conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours with the ridge getting displaced eastward some, extending from the Southern Plains to the Canadian Prairies by late tonight. Meanwhile, the mid-level closed low offshore the Pacific Northwest will move onto the coast today and slowly advance eastward. High pressure encompasses the region the next several days bringing a warm and dry weekend.
Phasing of the emerging southern stream low and the Central Canadian to Great Lakes trough is expected to pull moisture into the inverted trough axis later today, which is analyzed from HLG to FKL. Trough axis and the bulk of the deep moisture will shift eastward by early Sat morning.
452 PM EDT Fri May 12 2017 Latest water vapor imagery shows a defined tough draped along the southern CONUS with the tightly wound low pressure center over Arkansas. Surface analysis indicates a cold front stretching from this low southward, towards the Gulf of Mexico.
Southwest flow will increase again starting tomorrow late morning ahead of the cold front, with gusts between 20 and 25 knots likely.
Primary features of interest early this morning were the closed low over OK and the system pushing into the Pacific NW. The closed low over OK should track to the southeast today, while a mid level ridge builds eastward into the northern and central parts of the Plains through tonight. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure will be over the area today. As the high moves off to the southeast, our winds will become southerly. As the pressure gradient tightens on Saturday, with low pressure strengthening over the High Plains, it will become breezy locally.
The cold front should move through the area and winds will shift out of the northwest.
An upper level trough off the Pacific Northwest coast will continue to impact the region over the next 24 hours. The cold front is slowly moving across far eastern Oregon and Washington producing a light steady rain. However, the cool unstable air associated with the upper level low will increase the instability brought on by the heat of the day. Temperatures will continue to be cooler than normal.
248 PM PDT Fri May 12 2017 Cold nights the next two nights with many colder locations dropping below freezing.
Showers and thunderstorms should continue to increase ahead of this low and its associated cold front just northwest of Nashville. Passage of the cold front is expected to occur in the 06Z to 09Z window, followed by the upper trough passage around 12Z, at which time most precip should end. Skies will be mostly clear Saturday evening as weak high pressure at the surface builds in from the NW.
Low pressure will track over the Deep South today bringing showers and thunderstorms late this evening through Saturday morning.
A storm system will bring isolated to scattered rain showers to northern Nevada today along with cooler temperatures and breezy to windy conditions. Even cooler on Saturday with isolated to scattered rain and snow showers over northern Nevada.
An elongated area of high pressure extends from Minnesota down towards the panhandle of Texas.
Temperatures will reach into the low-mid 90s for most locations, which while above normal for this time of year, remains a few degrees below record values. /issued 355 AM EDT Fri May 12 2017/ Today: upper level ridge that has been dominating the weather pattern most of the week across South Florida gradually shifts east into the Atlantic waters this weekend.
540 PM EDT Fri May 12 2017 Low pressure will develop along a stationary front located across South Carolina and move northeast across the central Mid-Atlantic tonight through Saturday.
Dew points in the vicinity of this boundary were in the low to mid 50s with 40s further away from the boundary. Late tonight, dry conditions are expected as high pressure builds into the western Great Lakes. For the weekend, expect a continued warming trend as the upper level ridge builds into the region.
At the surface, an area of low pressure with an associated cold front continues to push toward the southeast. Thus, the highest rain chances will remain from around the I-4 corridor northward. It should also be noted that a strong storm or two remains possible given the cooler temperatures aloft across our northern zones, and this threat is mainly for the pre-dawn into late- morning hours of Saturday.
After a very warm afternoon across northeast Montana, the upper ridge axis will shift east as a Pacific trough deepens and heads for the western CONUS. This will mean a weather pattern shift with predominantly cooler and cloudy conditions with frequent chances for showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm. Latest 12z models do show the influence of that trough starting to reach the area on Saturday with upper level southerly flow residing over eastern Montana.
This activity will continue through much of the rest of the morning as an upper level low over eastern OK moves eastward through AR. Relatively cool conditions can be expected tonight due to good radiational cooling with surface ridging over the area leading to a clear sky, light surface wind, and fairly low surface dew points.
231 PM CDT Fri May 12 2017 Cold air advection will continue across the region tonight in the wake of an upper low currently moving toward the lower Mississippi Valley. An amplified ridge of high pressure will build over the state on Saturday and result in a mostly sunny and pleasant day with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 70s to the middle 80s.
Southwest breezes are forecast over the weekend, with only a sight chance for showers or storms and mainly over the higher terrain.
416 PM CDT Fri May 12 2017 A weak warm front extended from southern North Dakota through the Fargo/Moorhead area to near Hibbing. Temperatures tonight will be quite chilly again across northern Minnesota with lows around 30 degrees (and a few upper 20s in normally cooler locations).
Cool and showery weather will linger over the area through the weekend as an upper low slowly moves inland.