Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
333 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017 Strong high pressure ridging will continue to prevail over the region through the period. /15/ The period will start off with ridging across the Southeast CONUS with a respective ridge axis oriented through the Mississippi River Valley in response to a digging upstream trough over the Pacific Northwest.
549 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017 Gusty Southwest winds ahead of a trough will diminish a little after sunset. Winds shift to the West northwest as the trough moves across later overnight. LLWS setup time with some stronger winds remaining aloft associated with a wind max ahead of and slightly behind a trough. Winds shift to the WNW for a time after trough passage, as LLWS diminishes. Then a bubble of high pressure settles in for Thursday morning which slowly shifts off to the east Thursday afternoon. High Gusty SSW winds maintaining low level thermal ridging ahead of approaching trough. Winds shift to the WNW as this trough passes overnight. A bubble of high pressure passes through Thursday with a lighter return southerly flow setting up in the afternoon.
255 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 High pressure remains in control of the weather for much of the rest of the week into the weekend.
153 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017 Overview: 1019 mb high pressure (centered over southwest SD/northwest NE at 19Z) will build southward into the Tri-State region this afternoon through tonight. Through Tonight: Expect 0 chance for precipitation through tonight with ridging aloft and an extremely dry airmass characterized by dewpoint depressions on the order of 60-65F this afternoon.
Thus the low level moisture could mix out quickly in the late morning over the few central counties that see a low ceiling or patchy fog.
High Gusty SSW winds maintaining low level thermal ridging ahead of approaching trough. Winds shift to the WNW as this trough passes overnight. A bubble of high pressure passes through Thursday with a lighter return southerly flow setting up in the afternoon.
259 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017 A cold front moved through the region today, which plummeted high temperatures back down to a mere 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. These winds will keep the airmass mixed and mild across much of sandhills, where some inversions may reform across parts of central and southern Nebraska with lows dropping into the 30's in some of the lower spots.
An elongated high pressure ridge will stretch from the mid Atlantic east-northeast across the Atlantic overnight with low level northeast flow. A mid level trough will push southeast from the southeast Atlantic coast allowing additional drying in the mid-upper levels across nrn sections overnight. Expect more sunshine than recent days with highs into the lower 80s Volusia coast to the mid 80s interior and srn sections.
306 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017 Upper level analysis has fast moving upper trof across central Canada, with ridge rebuilding across the western CONUS. At the surface, high pressure has moved into the Northern Plains, with the weak cold front now well south and east of the area. Lee trof is quickly redeveloping across Wyoming and Montana. Upper ridge will rebuild for the latter half of the week, and strong southwesterly boundary layer flow will help temperatures climb into the 70s and 80s.
131 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 Canadian high pressure building into the Mid-Atlantic states will bring several days of cool, dry weather to the Carolinas. Temperatures should begin to warm up this weekend as the high moves off the coast.
Dewpoints/temps running higher today than yesterday, so should be slightly warmer tonight with less chance for any patchy frost.
248 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017 The cool high pressure that brought the marginally breezy conditions to the area will shift into northwest IA late tonight. This will help keep lows milder, in the lower to mid 40s, in south central SD with mid 30s possible in northwest IA.
Today will be the hottest day of the week, with temperatures 10+ degrees above normal and reaching in the lower to mid-80s. A weak trough axis is currently located from Johnson City to Garden City to Hays, making winds in Southwest Kansas light today (under 10 mph), and in some areas, calm for a few hours this afternoon. Tonight, winds will remain light, with temperatures reaching the lower to mid-40s.
320 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017 Sprawling high pressure centered in western NC was providing sunny skies and southerly winds across the dvn cwa. Mid afternoon temperatures were very pleasant, mainly in the lower 70s.
350 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017 Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure continuing to ridge maintaining a light erly low-level flow. Sfc ridging is progged to slide ewd, allowing a light more serly low-level flow to develop.
/ISSUED 953 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017/ Surface analysis has high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic with a ridge axis stretching back to the SW into E Texas. This has allowed for a cool start to the day but temperatures look on track to reach the low 80s today. Upper level analysis at 500mb shows a weak ridging aloft which will support higher temperatures today going into Thursday.
Decided to included MVFR ceilings in this TAF package, but will continue to monitor the model data to adjust timing of the low clouds or the possibility of removal of the ceilings depending on model trends. With sunny skies today, highs will be be in the lower to mid 80s. The cooler readings (lower 50s) are expected in low-lying areas and along river valleys of some of our eastern and southern counties, where winds will once again become light.
246 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017 Another quiet and cool fall night is in store tonight with a surface anticyclone over the Appalachians keeping the region dry underneath a modified continental polar airmass. So, temperatures should drop off quickly after sunset and reach into the low to mid 40s by Thursday morning. This may occur as a result of warm water interacting with the cooler airmass. Once the fog dissipates on Thursday morning, little change in the weather is expected on Thursday as a synoptic ridge builds from the NW Gulf of Mexico to the Southeast as a pair of troughs amplify over the Intermountain West. Daytime high temperatures may be a degree or two warmer on Thursday with this ridge building and the resultant deep southerly flow.
256 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 A large area of high pressure will remain over the eastern part of the country before slowly sliding off the coast.
300 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017 High pressure has moved well east of the area, yet cloud free skies still prevail for now. Temps back into mainly the lower 80s can be expected Thu and Fri with increased upper moisture and se winds picking up close to 10 mph durg the day. Deep upper trough approaching this wknd with first good chance of rain in a long time and this system shaping up to be more of a two round warm front followed by cold front scenario.
Boundary layer will remain mixed through tonight as the approaching front attendant to the cyclone over central Canada approaches from the west and ensures overnight lows are contained to values no lower than this morning's obs. Minor suppression of the thermal field will primarily influence the northern half of the CWA, where highs will be a few degrees cooler than today in the mid 60s.
225 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017 Breezy west to southwest winds will increase late today and tonight across North Central Montana with windy and warmer conditions returning Thursday.
/issued 903 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017/ Diffuse frontal boundary continues across the area today as high pressure on the eastern sea board extends down over the area. The highest rain chances will be in the far interior and south. High pressure north of the waters will maintain a tight gradient with winds speeds into small craft advisory range.
308 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017 This afternoon a broad upper level trough was translating eastward across south central Canada and the northern plains. A more amplified upper level trough will begin to move onshore across the western US late Tonight as a broad downstream upper level ridge amplifies along the MS river valley. A weak southern stream upper level trough across southern CA and northwest Mexico will be kicked northeast into the four corners region.
In the middle and upper levels(700-200 mb), latest available satelitte imagery overlaid with model streamline analysis as of 200 pm depicts a fairly typical mid-fall pattern which is progressive with low amplitude troughing and ridging across much of the CONUS. At the surface and in the lower to middle levels, (Surface to 700 mb), latest available satelitte imagery overlaid with marine and land surface observations and analysis as of 200 pm detail the center of a typical mid-autumnal sprawling near 1031 mb synoptic scale surface anticyclone centered over the Virginia Piedmont.
159 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 Aviation A large area of high pressure over the Central Appalachians will dominate our weather pattern over the next few days. A weakening cold front moves in from the northwest. Models are in decent agreement in showing the cold front currently in the Upper MS Valley to track southeast today and into the region tonight. Warm condition will prevail today a the low level thermal ridge moves in.
/15/ Strong high pressure ridging continues to prevail over the region today along with a very dry airmass. /15/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: Continued dry and slightly warmer. Early morning surface analysis had a 1028mb high centered over the central Appalachians and ridging back across the Gulf coast states. This will lead to a continuation of dry weather and warmer temperatures today and tonight. Under clear skies and a near calm wind again tonight, strong radiational cooling of our dry airmass will lead to morning lows slightly cooler than normal.
310 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 High pressure will drift off to the southeast tonight and Thursday as a weak cold front approaches from the west.
308 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 A large area of high pressure will remain over the eastern part of the country before slowly sliding off the coast.
1110 AM PDT Wed Oct 18 2017 A moist warm front will move into the region today and bring an moderate precipitation to the region today and Thursday.
In fact, fairly deep high pressure ridging across the region will keep a deep SERLY flow across ECFL.
Drier northeast surface flow across our area, thanks to high pressure over Ontario Canada, was keeping showers at bay just south of the area for now. Stacked/closed low lift north from the Southern Plains Sunday with a respectable slug of moisture transport wrapping toward the area in the afternoon.
Scattered showers will develop across the higher terrain, with isolated showers in the western Snake Plain on Sunday morning, and drying in the afternoon.
conventional and short term models continue to struggle with the evolution of the current upper level low in New Mexico and the convection out ahead in the eastern Plains and Ozarks. Leaning with the slower solutions generated from the ECMWF and NAM keeping the low delayed tomorrow as it moves into central Kansas. So the highest winds may occur outside of convection.
Templer Previous Discussion - Synoptic Setup: Short term begins with a large scale trough over the western half of the CONUS with its axis running up the front range from New Mexico to Montana. To the west a ridge has set up over thew California coast running north into Oregon and then curving back east into southern Idaho. This afternoon into tonight: A lee side mountain trough has laid down across far western zones and this is becoming the focal point for afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms. However, as the axis of this ridge pass through eastern Montana this afternoon chances for rain showers with isolated thunderstorms will again increase.
19z Surface analysis reveals the leading edge of the warm front has pushed as far south as Ardmore, with a broad shield of strato-cu spread across the remainder of Oklahoma and the vast majority of the plains, for good measure.
1009 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 A cold front will move offshore tonight followed by high pressure on Sunday.
The passage of a cold front overnight tonight will bring veering winds and brief MVFR cloud decks. Full VFR will be in effect on Sunday with high pressure building in from the north, allowing for winds to diminish to more moderate levels. /issued 243 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): Strong, dusty, gusty winds will subside by this evening as high pressure behind an approaching cold front fills in the daytime low pressure depression over West Texas. Mdt south southeast winds will continue overnight, however, pretty much until they shift to northwest with the arrival of the cold front.
We expect the strong pressure gradient which developed from the low pressure produced by strong convection ahead of the cold front, and the high pressure of the colder/drier air moving in behind the cold front.
701 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 High pressure will build down into the region from Canada tonight. Cooler temperatures are expected over the area on Sunday. A large strengthening low pressure system over the Ohio valley region will lift a warm front through New England bringing another chance for rain Sunday afternoon and evening. There is definitely some high bust potential with regards to the timing of the warm front and warmer air for Sunday. I continued the trend of staying on the cooler side of guidance because of the winds from the models. Interesting period of weather with warm front Sunday night over the far northern portions of New York and Vermont.
/issued 344 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/ Midday water vapor imagery captured a twin-lobed upper cyclone across NM, and a modest warm conveyor belt of clouds and light rain from the northern Panhandle south to the western Permian Basin. As the upper low tracks from near Ft Sumner, NM to Perryton, TX by daybreak Sunday, mid-level drying will envelop more of the South Plains and Rolling Plains behind the current axis of light rain. Farther NW near the upper low and deformation zone, precipitation should prove more definitive in both time and space. Northwest gradient flow will sharpen considerably by Sun morning as the upper low deepens about 130 meters in 9 hours. By Sunday evening, the upper low responsible for this weekends cool- down should be positioned near the Kansas City Metro area leaving NW flow aloft West Texas.
941 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017 The rapid southeasterly advance of the cold front is certainly doing a number on the (potential) convection this evening as it undercuts the line.
710 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 A cold front will cross the area this afternoon followed by high pressure on Sunday.
Strong high pressure will finally reach the area around the middle of the week. An upper level low continues to move away from the area, now located over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Northerly flow over the region will become more northwesterly Sunday as the upper level low pulls further away from the area. This will push a weak, dry and shallow cold front through the region Sunday afternoon and evening.
Gusty south winds will bring warmer temperatures on Sunday.
Plenty of deep moist convection was occurring across central MO this afternoon in the form of an MCS, while the PAH forecast area was in the warm sector south of a retreating warm front, with low level moisture advection continuing. In the highly amplified pattern aloft, mid level heights over us temporarily rose this afternoon in advance of a large area of low pressure digging through NM. Noticeably cooler temps will prevail behind this system, but not drastically so.
The building humidity will keep the low temperatures rather mild from the mid 60s to lower 70s.
There should also be increasing high clouds over the southern counties as the upper low over the southern Rockies moves out into OK/KS.
The upper level low in the southwest US is forecast to move/develop eastward and deepen across the southern Plains. The models indicate drying at lower levels ahead of this trough. Expecting the highest temperatures Sunday in the northwest (mid 60s) ahead of this trough with southerly winds and driest air allowing good mixing. The lowest temperatures are expected in the James Valley (mid 50s) with northeasterly winds develop in response to the developing southern Plains storm. Fire weather conditions Sunday: With the drying ahead of the advancing trough, expect afternoon relative humidity values to drop below 20 percent along the ND/MT border, with 20 to 25 percent values across much of central ND.
Surface wise, a formidable western Atlantic ridge extends into the gulf coast and southeast United States, with an elongated area of low pressure draped from Texas and into the lower midwest states. Little change in the overall large scale pattern with a massive western Atlantic ridge extending across the gulf coast and extreme southeast United States.
A weakening upper level ridge progresses east across the forecast area tonight as it is quickly flattened by an upstream Pacific upper level trough/jet that moves east across the region on Sunday.
756 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the Atlantic will dominate through Sunday and help keep any thunderstorms mainly associated with heating isolated.
High resolution short range forecast models are indicating that temperatures will indeed fall to near freezing in the Grand Valley overnight, with the coldest temperatures occurring at or around sunrise Sunday morning. An upper-level low pressure system continues to drift slowly south and east through the southern Rockies this Saturday afternoon. Freeze warning has been issued for the Delta- Montrose corridor where confidence is high in sub-freezing temperatures for several hours overnight. By Sunday night, a weak disturbance will round the eastern side of a ridge of high pressure centered over the west coast.
Regional radar shows storms coalescing into a line along the I-35 corridor of central Texas ahead of a cold front. This cold front will accelerate across the region tonight and early Sunday. A cold front is forecast to move through the region resulting in thunderstorms be likely late tonight and through the day on Sunday. Drier conditions will be ushered in behind the cold front on Sunday.
555 PM MDT Sat Apr 29 2017 An upper-level low pressure system continues to drift slowly south and east through the southern Rockies this Saturday afternoon. Freeze warning has been issued for the Delta- Montrose corridor where confidence is high in sub-freezing temperatures for several hours overnight. By Sunday night, a weak disturbance will round the eastern side of a ridge of high pressure centered over the west coast.
636 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017 Really not many changes to the ongoing TAFS other than to slightly tweak timing of, what's expected to be, a thin line of shra/tstms that'll be moving thru SE Tx later this evening and overnight ahead of a cold front.
Vfr operations should prevail through the remainder of the forecast period awaiting the arrival of Plains cold front Sunday evening.
1048 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the Atlantic will dominate through Sunday and help keep any thunderstorms mainly associated with heating isolated.
The frontal boundary near I-70 extends sw across southeast MO to 999 mb low pressure in central Texas. Highs Sunday range from mid to upper 60s nw of the IL river, to the mid 70s to lower 80s in eastern IL with the lower 80s over the Wabash river valley.
At upper levels, ridge will remain over the Eastern Pacific, maintaining a northwest flow pattern aloft over the district. As for temperatures on Sunday, weak onshore flow will return on Sunday, so coastal and coastal valley areas should be cooler (especially along the beaches) while interior sections actually warm a few degrees.
Low level Atlantic ridge axis was north of the area providing a broad southeast flow to the region. Moist low level SE flow will probably bring in patchy low clouds again overnite while high clouds will stream in from the gulf on the western edge of the upper ridge. Low level Atlantic ridge axis will remain north of the waters through Sunday.
The 00Z NAM shows some differences compared to its 18Z and 12Z runs, but still show a strong low pressure system impacting much of the Northland. High pressure ridging will loiter over the Northland this evening and Sunday morning with thin cirrus and light winds expected until late tonight. With clouds slow to expand northward tonight, lowered minimum temperatures in the Arrowhead into the middle to low 20s, a bit cooler than consensus guidance.
1133 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017 Cold front and associated line of shra, and a few embedded tsra along the Highway 59 corridor should continue moving se at a pretty good clip. /ISSUED 950 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/ The rapid southeasterly advance of the cold front is certainly doing a number on the (potential) convection this evening as it undercuts the line.
The main threats in association with the approaching cold front will be damaging thunderstorm winds and hail. /ISSUED 636 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/ Really not many changes to the ongoing TAFS other than to slightly tweak timing of, what's expected to be, a thin line of shra/tstms that'll be moving thru SE Tx later this evening and overnight ahead of a cold front.
This activity is tied to the main lift ahead of the upper trough axis and this lift will progress east across the area overnight. The NAM brings the center of the low aloft out of the Southern Rockies and into the Southern Plains by sunrise Sunday morning. For Sunday, look for: 1) lots of sunshine, 2) winds from the northwest, and 3) much cooler afternoon highs, mainly in the 65 to 73 range.
As this front develops and pushes slowly east toward the Tennessee Valley, this may affect the evolution of the pre-frontal trough axis on Sunday and how far east it initially develops. These operational models hold off shower and thunderstorm activity with the prefrontal trough axis until between 4 PM and 8 PM in northwestern Alabama and continue this activity through the overnight hours.
The NAM brings the center of the low aloft out of the Southern Rockies and into the Southern Plains by sunrise Sunday morning. For Sunday, look for: 1) lots of sunshine, 2) winds from the northwest, and 3) much cooler afternoon highs, mainly in the 65 to 73 range.
725 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 High pressure will build down into the region from Canada tonight. Cooler temperatures are expected over the area on Sunday. A large strengthening low pressure system over the Ohio valley region will lift a warm front through New England bringing another chance for rain Sunday afternoon and evening. There is definitely some high bust potential with regards to the timing of the warm front and warmer air for Sunday. I continued the trend of staying on the cooler side of guidance because of the winds from the models. Interesting period of weather with warm front Sunday night over the far northern portions of New York and Vermont.
/issued 131 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/ upper level trough that has brought a sudden change in the wx passing over NM today and the Panhandle tonight. Sunday the low will move northward across KS as high pressure slowly builds in from the west as the region remains on the east side of a West Coast trough. Strong cold front blew through the area overnight. Based on latest guidance plan on dropping some of the zones out of the watch since does not look like much of that area will fall to freezing tonight. and Marfa Plateau to a Freeze Warning tonight as expect these locations will reach freezing and this will be the last freeze of the season.
The strong upper low will continue to ever so slowly shift east in into North central Texas tonight. There will still be some clearing over the western part of the area later tonight and even with the other factors it will be more than a little below freezing. Mid level subsidence associated with weak ridging aloft.