Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Having some scattered storms this afternoon seems reasonable given how moist the air mass is and the fact that we should be warmer today vs yesterday. Probably will be mostly focused on the higher terrain as typical for summertime. KTRI will likely see the lowest flight categories. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 92 73 90 72 / 20 40 10 50 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 92 72 90 72 / 10 30 10 60 30 Oak Ridge, TN 70 91 71 90 71 / 10 30 10 50 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 90 68 89 68 / 10 20 10 60 30.
254 PM EDT Tue Aug 2 2022 Sub-tropical high pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain control of our weather pattern for the rest of the week. We can expect predominately afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day with the best coverage generally over the higher terrain. 4 inches, so not anticipating hydro issues outside of any cell which may happen to anchor across the higher terrain. These waves will have to offset a capped llvl profile outside the mtns for convective initiation, while the mtn ridges will remain abv the inversion.
352 PM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022 (Issued 352 PM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022) Tonight through Wednesday night: Look for increasing southerly winds this evening with a tightening pressure gradient due to low pressure approaching from the Northern Plains. The low level jet will be pointing well into northern WI and Upper Michigan, but winds just above the surface in southern WI will be in excess of 40 kt overnight.
Active weather continues for today as monsoonal moisture continues to get drag out of the south by the interaction of the upper- level high and offshore closed low. By Wednesday, latest model agreement sees the descent of a trough out of the Gulf of Alaska that will look to flatten the ridge out for the day. Temperatures should continue to hold in the high 80s to 90s for today and tomorrow with overnight low temperatures in the 50s to low 60s.
Increasing low level southwesterly flow will usher in a surge of low level moisture and instability later tonight into Wednesday with sfc dewpoints into the low-mid 70s. Showers/storms should accompany this wave and associated prefrontal trough from nw to se late Wed aftn-eve given just enough ascent and cooling aloft to push MLCAPE values in excess of 2000 j/kg.
A mid and upper level trough will cross the region tonight with a weak cold front moving through. The upper ridge will remain in place across the Desert Southwest and Four Corners Region. Lows in the lower to mid 60s.
Current temperatures are in the low to middle 90s, probably within a degree or so of afternoon highs.
351 PM EDT Tue Aug 2 2022 High pressure will provide warm and humid conditions tonight. These conditions will continue through Wednesday as the high shifts slowly to the east.
High temperatures Wednesday will still be hot, and above normal in the lower to middle 90s, but certainly a little cooler than today.
If nothing else the combination of the outflow and cold front will allow new thunderstorms to develop by I-96 around noon and those storms may well become severe.
/Updated at 1204 PM CDT Tue Aug 02 2022/ High pressure will remain over the area with diurnal showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower 70s.
Several spots will see triple digit highs today, with heat index values in the triple digits most areas, except for the higher elevations.
Today, ridging in the Gulf of Mexico is brining a weak NW steering flow, allowing both the Atlantic and Gulf sea breezes to push their ways inland. Low temperatures will be normal, mid 70s inland and a few degrees warmer on the coast.
(This evening through Wednesday Night) An upper-trough in the north-central Gulf of Mexico will maintain a somewhat unstable environment across the ArkLaTex through the short-term period allowing for scattered afternoon convection possible across southern Arkansas and north Louisiana on Wednesday. Temperatures on Wednesday will range from highs around 100 across northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma to the low to mid 90s across portions of northeast Louisiana. The higher temperatures across northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma are the result of the increased influence of the upper-level ridge centered across the desert southwest and extending east into Texas. Dew point values in the low to mid 70s on Wednesday morning are forecast to mix out into the mid 60s across east Texas by the afternoon limiting heat index values at or below 105 degrees.
Temps today will be much cooler than yday, with highs in the lower 90s in most low-elevations sites.
Further east in northwest IA and southwest MN, gusty southerly winds may provide some minor relief but still expect stifling humidity with dew points lingering in the lower to mid 70s. Expect highs ranging from the lower 80s (north) to the lower 90s (south). Drier air filters in behind the exiting upper trough to our north, dropping humidity levels to much more comfortable dew points in the 50s.
Our KEY 02/12Z sounding sampled lowering heights, confirming what GOES-16 water vapor is showing, a weakening Atlantic ridge. The weakening of the ridge has lead to light to gentle breezes in the island chain and gentle to moderate breezes on our coastal waters. Through the remainder of the work week and the weekend our sensible weather will be mainly driven by tree factors: 1) weakening and building of the North Atlantic high pressure system; 2) pockets of dry air associated with Saharan Air Layer outbreaks; 3) surges in moisture. However, the quiet weather will end soon, as an upper level low currently east of south Florida mainland will move through the area late tonight.
/Issued 1241 PM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022/ /Through Tomorrow/ The upper level ridge centered over the Desert Southwest will gradually shift toward the Plains through the short term period, resulting in hot and rain-free weather across North and Central Texas.
300 PM MDT Tue Aug 2 2022 Weak showers and mid clouds were gradually shifting south and east this afternoon as a cold front continued to push southeast. Heading into Wednesday, high pressure building over the region will bring temperatures into the 90s once again, with relative humidity down into the teens. STP While upper ridging continues to build into the area, heights get squeezed as a broad upper low tries to also swing south from British Columbia.
Winds will shift to the north and northwest behind the trough/front passage tonight. This will lead to cooler highs overall and even below normal forecast temps in the east with highs only around 80 degrees.
Lows tonight in the low to mid 70s inland and mid to upper 70s at the coast.
1125 AM MDT Tue Aug 2 2022 Most recent upper level analysis shows the upper ridge over the rockies, with northwest flow aloft. Upper ridge axis will slide over our region this morning and afternoon, Bringing hot conditions into the region. High pressure settles in by Wednesday, as upper ridge continues to translate through the northern plains.
Veered low level flow will continue to bring warmer 850mb airmass from the west over the area.
251 PM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022 Upper level ridging remains in control this afternoon with the center of the ridge squarely over the Four Corners region at 18z.
Throughout the period, high pressure will strengthen leading to greater subsidence.
(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Upper-ridge is currently positioned over the AZ/NM border with extension to the east over the western Caprock. A few showers/storms will be possible over the Guadalupe and Davis Mtns this afternoon due to subtle ML-CAPE progged over the higher terrain. This will allow for widespread 100+F outside the higher elevations with even some 110+F down along the RGV. Heat Advisory is in effect for tomorrow afternoon for the lower Big Bend due to the forecasted highs breaching 110.
/NEW/ /Through Tomorrow/ The upper level ridge centered over the Desert Southwest will gradually shift toward the Plains through the short term period, resulting in hot and rain-free weather across North and Central Texas.
Discussion: Moderate warm air advection has helped temperatures climb into the lower to mid 90s early this afternoon. Models seem to be in very good agreement with both the placement and timing of this upper trough. The attendant cold front is expected to move into far northwest Missouri tomorrow morning and work southward through the day.
The longwave trough axis continues to push off the East Coast this afternoon as high pressure starts to build in from the west. A typical summertime weather pattern is expected tomorrow due to more influence from high pressure and weak ridging aloft. Expect highs in the mid to upper 90s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. High pressure will remain in control and any actual flow in the upper levels will remain confined over the northern part of the US.
133 PM EDT Tue Aug 2 2022 High pressure with mainly dry, but warm and muggy conditions. Much drier today across the area with high pressure building into the region. Tonight, with high pressure continuing to build in, and clearing/calm conditions taking hold, expecting widespread fog to form. It will be even warmer and more humid on Wednesday, with frontal boundary lifting north across the area. Heat advisory criteria is looking possible across parts of the lowlands. High pressure, at the surface and aloft will provide dry weather conditions Wednesday and Wednesday night. Temperatures will be around 5 degrees warmer than normal through the period. Some spots across the lowlands can see heat index reaching the 100 degrees Wednesday afternoon. A heat advisory may be needed if dangerous heat index values become more widespread across the lowlands.
This afternoon into tonight, northwesterly flow aloft continues as an upper high remains centered over AZ/NM. While the flow pattern is potentially favorable for convection during the late afternoon and evening, progged soundings are in good agreement that warm temperatures aloft due to the presence of the ridge should keep convection from forming outside of perhaps the extreme northwestern Panhandles.
17z obs are showing a trough and wind shift line in eastern Colorado which is leading to the breezy southwest winds across the region. As the trough moves into Kansas it looks like most of the activity should be focused in northwest Kansas with just some slight POPs included for areas along the I-70 corridor after midnight. Winds will switch to the northwest as the weak cold front reaches to a Liberal to Hays line by morning. Lows will drop to the lower 70s. The northwest winds should bring in some slightly cooler air for most of the area with the exception of the far southeast where heat index values could near 105.
The high-res models were initially mixed on this outcome, but the probability is increasing based on the trends of today. The monsoon ridge is forecast to stay to our northeast, ushering in moist southeasterly flow.
An isolated diurnally driven shower or thunderstorm will be possible in the higher terrain areas of southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas but coverage and overall chance of occurrence is below mentionable levels. This temperature/dew point combination largely supports the existing advisory, although the lower dew points do make some of the values in far southeast Oklahoma more marginal than they were previously.
Precipitation will wrap up later this evening as the cold front pushes through. After the passage of the cold front, temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler than Tuesday. Thunderstorms may initiate over the high terrain during the afternoon with a few isolated storms making it over the plains.
A weak upper level trough continues to make its way just north of the area today, bringing gusty winds to most of North-Central and Southwestern Montana this afternoon. While a surface boundary associated with this trough has brought some additional surface moisture to parts of the area, RH values still remain in the 20s to near 30 percent north of this boundary. Where the boundary has yet to push through, which includes the higher elevations of the Rocky Mountain Front and south of a Great Falls to Lewistown line, RH values remain in the teens, which continues to result in critical fire weather danger.
This activity was moving to the east at about 30 mph, being fed by the low level jet, which will continue to shift eastward through the late afternoon (out of this FA). The true cold front was located from far southwest Manitoba toward the Williston area. By 1 am tonight, the low should be into southwest Ontario, with the cold front nearly through the entire FA. Behind the cold front, Wednesday highs should mainly be in the 70s with dewpoints back into the 50s.
High pressure will keep the area quiet mid- late week.
255 PM MDT Tue Aug 2 2022 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over south central Canada, with a warm front stretching across eastern ND into MN and a cold front across western ND to southern MT. Hot conditions return late week as ridge rebuilds northward over the central/southern Plains and into the northern Plains.
Another feature to consider is a weak inverted trough that passes the area later this evening and overnight, which will provide an opportunity for overnight activity that sweeps east to west across the CWA. The center of this high will migrate west over east-central AZ by this afternoon keeping the area in east to southeast flow aloft.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Mid level ridging will remain in control in the short term period, keeping Deep South Texas hot and dry. Subsidence from this ridge will hinder convective development and help temperatures to climb into the mid 90s to triple digits both this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon (except for along the immediate coast where temperatures will only reach the mid 80s).
142 PM EDT Tue Aug 2 2022 High pressure will build over the East Coast through midweek.
/issued 251 PM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022/ Upper level ridging remains in control this afternoon with the center of the ridge squarely over the Four Corners region at 18z.
So based on current trends, the strong ridging aloft appears to be winning out. Have been toying with the idea of a Heat Advisory for tomorrow given the higher temps, but we could have a bit more mixing so dewpoints (and heat indicies) could be lower than what we currently have in the grids.
After that, mostly dry conditions are expected for the second half of the overnight across the area, as rain-cooled temps settle in the low to mid 70s.
Temps in many places late Tuesday were warmer than the same time 24 hours ago, which will support another warm night with increasing humidity that is already high to begin with. Throughout the period, high pressure will strengthen leading to greater subsidence.
This temperature/dew point combination largely supports the existing advisory, although the lower dew points do make some of the values in far southeast Oklahoma more marginal than they were previously.
/22/ Rain chances will continue through the afternoon into the evening as weak mid-level troughing persists overnight into tomorrow. Overnight lows will range in the lower 70s, while highs on tomorrow will range in the upper 80s to lower 90s. /AJ/ Tomorrow night through Tuesday: Upper ridging over the Four Corners region will gradually shift east into the Central Plains by this weekend. A weakness between this ridge and a stout Bermuda high will initially be in place across the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Otherwise, a persistent cutoff low pressure system offshore will wander away and westward allowing upper ridging over the SW US to re- establish over the area through the rest of the week. The bulk of the moisture appears to get absorbed into the cut-off low.
High pressure will build overhead on Wednesday and introduce a slight drying trend to the region, along with a temperature warmup. Dry air and subsidence under the high will squash convection on Wednesday across the CWA. A few storms will likely develop amongst the higher peaks of the northwest mountains, the eastern San Juans and along the divide.
435 PM MDT Tue Aug 2 2022 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over south central Canada, with a warm front stretching across eastern ND into MN and a cold front across western ND to southern MT. Hot conditions return late week as ridge rebuilds northward over the central/southern Plains and into the northern Plains.
706 PM MDT Tue Aug 2 2022 The cold front has moved to the southeast of the forecast area. Current surface analysis shows low pressure over south central Canada, with a warm front stretching across eastern ND into MN and a cold front across western ND to southern MT. Hot conditions return late week as ridge rebuilds northward over the central/southern Plains and into the northern Plains.
913 PM EDT Tue Aug 2 2022 High pressure will provide warm and humid conditions tonight. These conditions will continue through Wednesday as the high shifts slowly to the east.
1042 PM EDT Tue Aug 2 2022 Sub-tropical high pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain control of our weather pattern for the rest of the week. We can expect predominately afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day with the best coverage generally over the higher terrain. These waves will have to offset a capped llvl profile outside the mtns for convective initiation, while the mtn ridges will remain abv the inversion.
Kept PROB30 groups at the LA sites where convective probabilities are higher, with just VC mention at BPT where the effects of the upper ridge should be sufficient to limit coverage.
Expect warmer temperatures and less thunderstorms through Wednesday, with increasing storm coverage and cooler temperatures for the latter half of the week and into the weekend. The forecast for the remainder of the week will be dependent on the location of the high pressure system currently over the US Southwest. Not seeing too much storm activity on radar this afternoon most likely due to the center of the high positioned directly over central Arizona. According to the GEFS and ECMWF Ensemble, an increasing trend in storm activity and coverage is likely starting Wednesday as the high begins its migration eastward. High temperatures Wednesday will still be slightly warmer than the past week as high pressure strengthens.
753 PM EDT Tue Aug 2 2022 High pressure will provide warm and humid conditions tonight. These conditions will continue through Wednesday as the high shifts slowly to the east.
728 PM EDT Tue Aug 2 2022 Drier and warmer weather returns through midweek apart from isolated showers and storms near the coast.
This trend is associated with the continued weakening of the Atlantic ridge north of the CWA that will keep breezes gentle to moderate tonight and through tomorrow. From synopsis, a ridge of high pressure across the North Atlantic will slowly slide southward through mid-week, resulting in slackening east to southeasterly breezes. The ridge will strengthen late in the week, and the axis will drift back northward.
Warmer temperatures expected tomorrow, with another push of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
645 PM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022 (This evening through Wednesday Night) An upper-trough in the north-central Gulf of Mexico will maintain a somewhat unstable environment across the ArkLaTex through the short-term period allowing for scattered afternoon convection possible across southern Arkansas and north Louisiana on Wednesday. Temperatures on Wednesday will range from highs around 100 across northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma to the low to mid 90s across portions of northeast Louisiana. The higher temperatures across northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma are the result of the increased influence of the upper-level ridge centered across the desert southwest and extending east into Texas. Dew point values in the low to mid 70s on Wednesday morning are forecast to mix out into the mid 60s across east Texas by the afternoon limiting heat index values at or below 105 degrees.
A scattered to broken line of thunderstorms is likely as a cold front moves across the area tomorrow.
Conditions will be hot and humid tomorrow before a front moves in, bringing cooler temperatures and increased rain chances. Current temperatures are in the low to middle 90s, probably within a degree or so of afternoon highs.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 91 73 90 72 / 20 20 10 50 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 91 72 88 70 / 10 30 10 50 30 Oak Ridge, TN 70 91 71 89 71 / 10 20 10 50 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 89 67 88 68 / 10 20 10 50 30.
Water vapor satellite imagery/500mb heights/lightning show several clusters of storms on the periphery of the hot air with the tropical connection and ahead of the trough from Manitoba into the Dakotas. 25 inches pool ahead of the cold front. The low level jet remains strong overnight increasing from 45kts to 50kts through 12Z. then decreasing 35 to 45kts as the low level jet translates southeast of the area later this afternoon. Some patchy fog is possible Thursday morning with the low dewpoint depressions and weak flow. Cooler north flow should have highs from the upper 70s to lower 80s.
241 AM MDT Wed Aug 3 2022 Upper air analysis has northwest flow over the region, with mild ridging over the western CONUS. Boundary is expected to move through the region this morning as high pressure settles in over the Dakotas. As the high slides east of us today, increasing 850mb southerly flow may help spark some showers/storms late afternoon into the evening, however HRRR smoke shows increasing upper level smoke in the region, which may inhibit any development.
The high-res models were initially mixed on this outcome, but the probability is increasing based on the trends of today. The monsoon ridge is forecast to stay to our northeast, ushering in moist southeasterly flow. Thursday looks to have additional lift from an inverted trough and WPC paints a slight risk for excessive rainfall in portions of our area.
Expectations are for coverage to remain sparse and limited to areas east of the Highway 65 corridor. It should be noted that most of the activity will remain sub-severe, with the best chances and SPC marginal severe weather outlook along and north of the Highway 54 corridor. The highest rainfall totals will likely occur across portions of central and south central Missouri. Precipitation and clouds slowly clearing the region will give way to high temperatures likely in the lower 90s.
Heights will rise today as ridging over the southern US amplifies ahead of a trough sweeping in from the Northern Plains. There will be just a few lingering showers overnight as the cold front and trough stall against a strong ridge over the mid- Atlantic. Weak impulses will ripple between the mid-Atlantic ridge and the Central US ridge over the next few days brining diurnal shower/storm chances for part of our area.
Otherwise, the main challenge will be convective chances/trends along/behind the weak cold frontal passage today through tonight. Despite some transient cloudiness thru midday into the early afternoon, temperatures are still expected to soar above 100 degrees over south central and southeast Kansas this afternoon ahead of the cold front.
With the high moisture levels and upper level weakness, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop each day, starting along and south of the coast after midnight, then spread inland during the day before dying out in the evening, with the day's instability used up.
134 AM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022 High pressure provide hot and humid conditions today.