Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Through the remainder of today: Cooler air on the backside of a cold front that moved through last night is pushing into the region. The accompanied dry cold front continues to make its way through the area this morning. Northerly winds will usher in cooler and drier air today. Highs in the 50s today will be about 10-15 degrees cooler than yesterday.
340 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level trough over the wrn CONUS and a trough from nrn Quebec into the Ohio Valley resulting in nnw flow through the wrn Great Lakes.
Gusts will subside right around sunset, with sustained winds gradually diminishing through the night as the ridge progresses east. For now, will lean on a blend of raw model and MOS guidance for overnight lows which yields temperatures in the low to mid 30s across the entire region.
1030 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017 Gusty northwest winds continue across the Mid-South this morning in the wake of the overnight cold front.
In the low levels, winds will back to westerly today, allowing for downslope-induced warming to erode the cooler air mass which filtered into the region behind yesterday's (Mon) cold front. Tonight into Wednesday, the next strong cold front (associated with the disturbance mentioned above) will advance through the northern Plains and mid-MO Valley. Additionally, we could see a brief window of elevated fire weather conditions along the Kansas border Wednesday afternoon where a favorable overlap of strong winds and warmer/drier air will reside.
It will be considerably cooler today as CAA continues upon northwest low level flow. The surface flow will back tonight, ahead of a mid level wave and low pressure ending up over the Upper Midwest by 12z Wednesday. As the features move southeast, expect gusty southwest winds and warmer temps Wednesday.
301 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017 The main concern for the short-term forecast continues to be the high fire danger for tomorrow. Conditions will become windy, both ahead of a weak front/trough and even more so in the wake of that feature.
Strong high pressure will remain in place through much of the week and result in dry weather conditions along with above average daytime temperatures. A strong, upper level ridge remains parked over the West Coast and has been largely responsible for the extended streak of the dry conditions. With the exceptionally dry air mass in place and long December nights, expect another chilly night again with many North Bay valley locations falling back to near freezing. The upper level ridge will remain over the West Coast through the end of the work week.
Temperatures on the Plateau are finally falling towards freezing, but as we get later in the morning, the forecast soundings start drying out rather rapidly. This the result of dry nwly flow aloft and building sfc ridging influences. As sfc ridging influences become more sly orientated, nwly sfc winds at 12/18Z will begin backing to the sw after 13/06Z.
07 inches on this morning's sounding, sunny conditions and light winds are expected under prevailing ridge.
Breezy northwest winds will usher in cooler drier air tonight into Wednesday as high pressure builds in from the west. Broad upper level troughing extends over the northeast U. At that time upper high ridging strengthens over Cuba and extends northwest over Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico.
Cooler and less breezy than yesterday, Tuesday has remained calm, with afternoon temperatures slowly creeping into the lower 50s through 2 PM.
Falling temperatures and melting followed by re-freezing also remains a concern in areas that warmed up near or above the freezing mark. No changes to snow accumulations through tonight with the highest amounts north of the NY Thruway. The flow shifts as the trough shifts east. Temperatures recover only slightly into the low and mid 20s but with strong winds, wind chills will be mostly in the single digits.
The low wind speeds, clear skies and relatively dry air will allow for temperatures to drop from the 30s to around 40 degrees across the region.
254 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017 Nice winter day across the region with temperatures in the low to mid 60s with strong sun.
1029 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017 Cold and breezy conditions will take place today behind yesterday's cold front. Mostly sunny conditions can be expected due to the high pressure, however a few cloud bands can be expected at times due to lingering cyclonic flow aloft. Cold advection will cause temperatures to rise only a few degrees from current temperatures, only reaching the mid to upper 20s along I-74 to the low 30s from Springfield to Lawrenceville southward. Cooler air moving into the region right now going to keep much of the area below freezing today.
Arctic air continues to spill southward with temps bottoming out overnight in the low to mid teens, which should push wind chills down in the 0 to -5 degree range most areas (colder WV mountains).
Cold front moving through the state will bring drier and cooler air to the state into late week.
A clipper-type system will dive southeast across the northern plains overnight and push a cold front across the CWA but only effect will be a breezy to windy day across the plains Weds with max temps about 10-15 degrees cooler than today.
Winds will gradually subside this afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes and high pressure moves into the area. Winds will become southwesterly at the I-35 sites (and SE at DRT) tomorrow around 10 knots ahead of a pre-frontal trough. /12Z TAFS/ Surface ridging behind this morning's weak cold front could send sustained winds to near 15 knots over Central TX with some afternoon gusts over 20 knots possible. An upper level trough moving across the Great Lakes and Mississippi into Ohio Valleys will drag a cold front across our area early this morning.
352 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017 Scattered snow showers were ongoing over the eastern portion of the forecast area late this afternoon in upslope cold air advection, but the back edge of the activity was shifting eastward as drier air advected into the area and the low level moisture mixed away. Clouds were already diminishing from west to east as well late this afternoon, and this trend will continue through most of the night as surface ridging builds in from the west and low level cold air advection eases, and warm air advection begins. The low will pass to our north on Wednesday night, and all significant precip associated with the system will be to our north. However, the trailing cold front will bring another quick burst of colder air to the region beginning late Wednesday night.
235 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017 A surface cold front pushed southeast through the state earlier today ahead of a longwave upper level trough that is swinging east across the Deep South region this afternoon. With a brisk northwest flow aloft and under clearing skies with decreasing winds, expect a freeze areawide overnight with lows ranging from the lower 20s far north to around 30 across our southeast counties. Temperatures will range from the upper 40s northeast to the mid 50s south and west on Wednesday as the low-level advection pattern becomes more zonal.
Model soundings don't show a great potential for freezing precipitation, but temperatures may be just below freezing at times, so left the mention in as was indicated by the in-house model blend.
233 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017 A deep mid-upper level trough extending from the northern Great Lakes all the way down to the Gulf of Mexico is dominating the eastern half of the CONUS while an impressive ridge continues to sit over much of the west. Highs this afternoon are expected to be cooler than yesterday across the CWA, though still an above average day for the month of December.
255 PM MST Tue Dec 12 2017 Upper level analysis has highly amplified flow with a trof across the East Coast, and large ridge across the western CONUS. At the surface, low pressure is located across south central Canada, with the warm front through the eastern Dakotas.
358 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017 A strong cold front will push offshore tonight. Latest sfc analysis shows ~996 mb low pressure centered over NY state with an attendant cold front stretching south through the middle of the fa.
This afternoon, temperatures will warm into the 30s and low 40s, which is about 15 degrees cooler than yesterday. Regarding the upper level pattern, not much has changed with the persistent ridging over the western US and troughing in the eastern US.
Snow is expected to linger into Wednesday evening over eastern Wisconsin as a clipper low pressure system tracks southeast of the area.
303 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017 The overall pattern shows a persistent mid-level ridge located over the western US, with a deep trough over the Great Lakes region. A cloudless sky tonight will aid low temperatures dropping near freezing. Highs wil be above normal Wednesday reaching into the upper 50s near central Kansas, towards the low 50s in far northeast Kansas.
With decreased radiational cooling assoc/w increasing wind, expect warmer lows than in previous nights, ranging from the upper 20s to mid 30s. With CAA in the morning, expect cooler highs in the mid/upper 50s. Even though the models are showing a couple of upper level troughs, with their associated surface fronts, moving across the region over the weekend; the environment is too dry to support any significant impact other than an increase in cloud cover.
This still looks to spread mainly snow along the northern flank of the low, with western WI in the most favorable location to see 1 to 3 inches of snow. Farther south, mid level drying leads to limited icing aloft and hence the forecast of freezing drizzle.
1125 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017 Gusty north winds this afternoon should be tapering off by early this evening as high pressure builds into the region. High temperatures with cold advection over the area should still reach the low to mid 60s.
218 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017 High pressure and reinforcing cold air will be moving into the region this afternoon through Wednesday.
343 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017 A cold front has pushed through the region and expect a brief period of cooler temperatures.
Reinforcing dry cold front currently approaching a JAX-GNV- CDRF1 line. Front will sweep southward across ECFL through late this evening, with cooler/drier air quickly scouring out any residual cloud cover that linger past sunset. Temps will drop into the U30s to L40s across all but the immediate Treasure Coast, which will be a few degrees warmer. Stronger low level westerly flow to 20-25 knots at H9 across nrn sections will keep the low levels more mixed with lows in the U30s-L40s.
Lows in the low to mid 30s are expected, with some isolated pockets of upper 20s in drainage areas of the Hill Country.
Light snow should develop this afternoon; however, a warm tongue of +5 C air at 850 mb will likely cause freezing drizzle or freezing rain over central/north central Minnesota where up to a tenth of inch of a glaze can be expected. Elsewhere, the low tracks south down the spine of MN which will cause a favorable fetch for lake effect snow on the north shore, so snowfall amounts may be enhanced there with 3-5" possible. A sharp upper level vort max and short wave are causing this low to deepen as it moves through the forecast area hence this package has a little heftier QPF amounts.
If this turn to the southwest happens earlier, it will be warmer in the morning. Later turn? Then it will be cooler.
319 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017 Quiet weather tonight with west southwest winds ahead of a strong cold front that moves into the area on Wednesday as an Alberta clipper moves out of the northern Plains.
this morning as upper high pressure remains firmly in control of the weather across the Rockies.
The persistent upper level ridge over the western U.
/BB/ Through the remainder of today: Cooler air on the backside of a cold front that moved through last night is pushing into the region. The accompanied dry cold front continues to make its way through the area this morning. Northerly winds will usher in cooler and drier air today. Highs in the 50s today will be about 10-15 degrees cooler than yesterday.
/issued 1030 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017/ Gusty northwest winds continue across the Mid-South this morning in the wake of the overnight cold front.
Warmer temperatures are then expected this weekend with highs in the mid to upper 30s. Brief lake response will commence in the wake of the low, much closer to the lake this time around.
328 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017 A strong cold front will push offshore tonight. Latest sfc analysis shows ~996 mb low pressure centered over NY state with an attendant cold front stretching south through the middle of the fa. A cold front crosses the area this aftn with west winds gusting in its wake tonight and Wed. Gale warnings remain in place through Wed afternoon due to the forecasted period of elevated winds behind todays arctic cold front.
1114 AM EST Tue Dec 12 2017 Dry cold front will cross the forecast area late this morning with high pressure and reinforcing cold air moving into the region this afternoon and tonight.
High pressure parked across the western United States will result in dry and quiet weather through the weekend.
Northeast Montana will see warmer air ahead of this wave today with continued dry weather. This wave will dive southeast across eastern Montana tonight with a dry cold front. The cold front will be a few hours ahead of the wave and move through the forecast area in the late afternoon and early evening. The ridge axis will be pushed back to the Pacific Coast on Wednesday with Montana in NW flow aloft and a somewhat cooler air mass over the region. The next wave on NW flow aloft drops SE across the region Wednesday Night with another cold front Another wave comes through late Wednesday night.
/issued 410 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017/ (Today and Tonight) Another cold front will push, from north to south, across West Central Texas today. This front will bring winds from the north, along with cooler temperatures.
303 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017 Atmosphere will undergo a significant change from the blocking pattern over the western Conus that we've seen for the past few days with a more progressive pattern evolving.
The result will be cooler temps this afternoon, reaching the low 50's inland and upper 50's to around 60 along the coast.
250 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017 Beautiful yet cooler conditions today compared to 24 hours ago with afternoon temperatures still just a few degrees shy of 60 degrees. For this reason, have undercut MOS temps overnight for most areas which should result in near freezing temperatures for most areas overnight. Another dry cold front will be approaching the I-30 Corridor after sunset Wednesday Evening with the front expected to push through our region Wednesday Night.
1042 AM MST Tue Dec 12 2017 Northwest flow continues over the northern plains, with a persistent upper ridge to the west and trough to the east. A band of low clouds and a warm front stretch from north to south across the central/eastern Dakotas.
Our area remains in the N to NW flow on the back side of the deep eastern CONUS longwave trough. Northwest winds will gradually back to the west and lessen as the day progresses, as surface ridging builds into the region. /Issued 309 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017/ The initial cold front that passed through the region yesterday has worked well south into TX. The cool weather will be short-lived as winds quickly become south/southwest on Wednesday ahead of yet another cold front. The warmer temps. The aforementioned cold front will push through the area on Wednesday.
If cloud ice is lost, some freezing drizzle is possible. Winds will be another concern as the low passes off to the southeast on Wednesday.
Strong cold air advection behind a cold front will continue this evening. The combination of winds and cold temperatures will push wind chills in the higher elevations into the -10 to -20 F range. Warm air advection can be expected on Wednesday as a warm front lifts northward.
A ridge of high pressure remains over the region much of the week, although a weak disturbance will move across the top of the ridge today.
A strong cold front will accompany this feature. One night of near freezing mins is expected Wednesday morning.
1019 AM MST Tue Dec 12 2017 High amplitude upper level pattern remains in place across NOAM with a Western States ridge transitioning to a deep trough across the East. This lead wave will have little impact to our region but it pull along some high level moisture over the ridge going into Wednesday. This wave will push mid level temperatures down a bit by tomorrow afternoon so slightly cooler in the northern CWA due to this and some cloud cover.
Strong and persistent high pressure aloft will remain the dominant weather feature across the western states through the end of the work week. Strong high pressure remains over much of the western CONUS this morning, leading to persistent low level inversion conditions across Utah.
Patchy to areas of freezing fog and low stratus continues to be the biggest impact for the next 12-18 hours. A weak disturbance moves over the top of the ridge Wednesday morning bringing some light precipitation to portions of west central Montana into southwest Montana.
The better warming will be realized over our west, and with possible afternoon sunshine highs will make it into the lower 50s over south central SD, to mid/upper 40s through the James River and MO River Valleys. This will pull a cold front through our area by Wednesday morning.
Weak Cold Front Moves Through The Lower Rio Grande Valley. SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): The cold front has passed through the region earlier this morning, but there was minimal visible signal to its passing. Skies will remain mostly clear tonight, and with dewpoints falling into the 30s, expect lows tonight to be about 5 degrees below this mornings low, generally in the low 40s areawide. Lows will still fall into the lower 50s with clear skies.
Strong cold air advection behind a cold front will continue this evening. The combination of winds and cold temperatures will push wind chills in the higher elevations into the -10 to -20 F range. Warm air advection can be expected on Wednesday as a warm front lifts northward. High pressure builds into the area on Wednesday bringing any remaining mountain snows to an end. As the high builds in, winds should diminish allowing the wind chill advisories to come to an end as well.
Limited returns across the Smoky Mountains, but clouds remain, so would expect light snow/flurries still possible over the higher elevations. For tonight, continued brisk winds and very cold temperatures will produce dangerously cold wind chills across the higher elevations. For Wednesday, ridging and dry northwest flow will produce sunny sky and milder afternoon temperatures.
The closed mid-level ridge over Nevada is expected to slowly fill and migrate west.
136 PM MST Tue Dec 12 2017 High pressure parked across the western United States will result in dry and quiet weather through the foreseeable future.
As the low system that brought the strong gusty winds yesterday pulls ewd out of the region, winds will diminish thru the morning and gradually become wly. With few clouds expected today, have trended twd the warmer guidance despite the nwly winds. Still, with the dry air expected across the region, have trended twd the cooler guidance expecting temps to drop quickly this evening especially in sheltered areas. While relative humidity values will drop into the lower 20 percent or even into the teens, conditions are not as extreme as yesterday with much lighter winds anticipated today. Tilly Warmer temperatures on Wednesday due to low-mid level warm air advection and southwest surface winds during the morning.
1120 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017 Today: A mid-upper deck longwave trough, deeper than the Marianas Trench, is situated from the Great Lakes all the way to about Mississippi, while an ultra-high amplitude upper-deck ridge covers western North America from Baja CA all the way to the British Columbia/ Alberta border. Airmass in wake of trough passage becomes dry adiabatic early Wed afternoon & with excellent momentum transfer windy & warmer weather results for all areas. The mid-upper wave will kick a weak cold front SE across KS Sat Night. Since the front is fairly weak, temperatures won't cool that much from Sat to Sun with Sun's highs in the lower 50s. Mon will be warmer as lower-deck flow backs toward the west which would enable highs to reach back into the mid 50s.
At the surface, a large high pressure ridge extended across the Northern Plains and was exerting its influence across northeast Kansas in the form of a modest northeasterly wind. Continued CAA ahead of the advancing high pressure cell resulted in lowering max temps for tomorrow a few degrees from the going forecast.
Right now, expect mostly MVFR ceilings, and although some IFR ceilings can't be ruled out, probability of the lower ceilings is low enough that will keep MVFR in general.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 73 53 59 / 70 80 50 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 68 50 55 / 80 80 50 50 Oak Ridge, TN 59 68 50 55 / 90 80 40 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 63 47 53 / 60 90 50 40.
A complicated system of weak ridges and troughs will cross the Great Basin this week.
The low level dry advection is expected to erode the lingering stratus on the east side overnight. Low level cyclogenesis tonight will be fairly weak, but still perhaps sufficient enough for development of patchy drizzle or even freezing drizzle across far west-central KS in the 06-12z time frame tonight.
downstream from short wave ridging along the Pacific coast. Broad high pressure will remain across the Great Lakes through Tuesday bringing a bit of a lull in the weather.
Also increased the extent of patchy freezing fog, especially in the Southwest MT valleys. Jaszka High pressure will drift southeast across the region tonight for clearing skies and generally light winds, which will allow temperatures to fall rapidly this evening with many locations seeing temperatures fall to single digits above and below zero.
Cloudy skies to persist tonight with lows in the low 30s far north to the mid 40s far south. A high pressure center over the central CONUS will keep the active frontal zone well to the south of the area. Models are in better agreement today compared to yesterday regarding the track of a disturbance moving from the Pacific Northwest into the southeastern CONUS and the speed of an upper trough passing through the Great Lakes towards the end of the week, and only minimal effects from these features are expected across the LSX CWA. Kanofsky A cold front currently located over the Missouri bootheel will MVFR conditions from interstate 70 north.
High res models on track with peak snow coverage occurring past few hours and expected through 21Z before chances quickly dissipate thereafter from north to south as the cold/dry high pressure develops southeast into western ND and across our local area this evening. Canadian high pressure over the state tonight will result in light winds and a clear sky. Coupled with snow cover many areas, we expect temperatures to quickly drop this evening with overnight lows sub-zero many locations, at least in the lower single digits above. High pressure slowly moves southeast into eastern South Dakota on Tuesday. Not as cold but still well below normal as a steady southwest wind brings in a slightly warmer airmass.
Later into the week, a more deeply amplified trough will allow the boundary to shift southward closer to the region, providing for an increasing chance for rain to close out the week. This will slightly change late in the week into the weekend as the presence of the mid to upper level trough will provide additional instability over the region.
However, scattered to numerous showers may persist into overnight hours, eventually shifting to the south and east after midnight as a reinforcing cold front moves through the CWA. This cold front will continue south on Tuesday, allowing a cooler continental air mass to filter into Mid-South.