Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
400 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017 Water vapor loop indicated an upper low over western Ontario with short waves over southwest MAN, eastern MAN, western Ontario and western WI. Short waves will rotate around upper low for today and Tue. Upper low over Western Ontario will move into northwest MN Mon night. Upper low will move into IA/southeast MN on Tue and take the showery precip with it. Upper level ridge over the western North America will move over the Northern Plains Wed. Next upper low will move into SASK by 12Z Thu.
332 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017 A weak cold front will approach from the west today and will push east through the region tonight.
634 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017 High pressure will bring drier and cooler conditions for the beginning of the week. High pressure will linger at the sfc tonight keeping the region dry. Lows will drop to the lower to mid 50s. Highs in Tuesday will warm into the lower to mid 70s, before cooling back to the lower to mid 50s.
320 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017 Potent s/wv will move over central/southern Rockies today ahead of main trough, allowing the increase in showers and storms across the region. In the wake of mentioned trough, a cold front will make its way over the region tonight and early Tuesday. In wake of the front, cold upper trough will progress over the Southern Plains which may allow development of showers and isolated storms through Tuesday afternoon mainly over central and southeast portions of Oklahoma, with severe storms unlikely.
303 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017 High pressure responsible for the amazing weather yesterday was starting to slide east of the region. Today will be warmer, however, clouds will be on the increase as our next weather system (cold front and parent upper level short wave) begins to take shape. The Canadian front should slide through the region Tuesday evening/overnight as an upper level low pressure closes off across the cornbelt, amplifying the trough kicking the front southward.
A broad upper level trough over Minnesota will continue impacting the eastern CWA through this evening with mostly cloudy skies and breezy northwesterly winds. The biggest question for tonight is whether or not frost forms in the low lying areas of the James River valley and points east. Several areas west of the Missouri River valley saw low temperatures last night in the lower 30s, which could be possible for the James River valley tonight. High pressure then builds into the region from the west-northwest, drying and warming things up for mid week.
309 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017 WV imagery this morning showing large upper level low pressure currently centered in the vicinity of the western Great Lakes. Height falls associated with large upper level low pressure will spread across the northern/central Plains today. Aforementioned impulses will aid in inducing precip along a relatively weak cold front making a southward dash through the Dakotas. allowing for possible generous rainfall amounts overnight before the cold front pushes south of the CWA. upper low/vort max digs down through the upper Midwest into the Mid MS Valley region.
603 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017 High pressure will move east of the region today.
310 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017 Isentropic ascent in the 300K to 310K layer, ahead of an upper level trough sliding south through Plains, will lead to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms today. But a freezing level of around 8000 ft during the afternoon may enable small hail in the strongest cells. For Tuesday, the upper trough will be situated overhead. Given the cold air aloft, with a freezing level down to as low as 6000 ft, the 200 to 300 J/kg of MUCAPE will likely be enough to get scattered showers and a few thunderstorms again. The strongest cells may be able to produce small hail given the low freezing levels.
This activity is primarily being driven along an axis of 320 to 325K isentropic ascent, assisted by a 500mb short wave trough digging out of the Inter-mountain West. After midnight, as the low level jet increases and boundary layer winds shift more out of the south and southeast, increasing low level moisture, precipitation chances will increase across the Panhandles and western Oklahoma through Sunrise. Lows will be warmer compared to last night. The highest instability with MUCAPE 1000-2500 J/kg is forecast to be over western north Texas and western Oklahoma as well as points west, so these areas have a higher potential for a few severe storms with hail (likely less than golf ball size) and perhaps damaging wind gusts near 60 mph mainly during the late afternoon and evening hours. By Tuesday, cooler conditions are expected.
Monday night and Tuesday, weak high pressure will build across the area, to temporarily bring drier, seasonable weather.
309 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017 High pressure will move east of the region today.
With the lack of flow, it will be hard to displace the current trough in place centered over the Midwest. The slow evolution of the trough will lead to a fairly dismal forecast with plenty of clouds and periodic showers through most of the week.
327 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017 Current radar shows a little convection north of Lea County this morning, but much more is expected later today as an upper level trough dives southeast out of the Rockies. This activity will move east out of the area this evening before the trough pushes a cold front south later tonight with more rainfall expected along and behind this boundary. Clouds and rain kept the high in Midland at an astonishing 71 degrees yesterday, and while it should be warmer today we are still expecting highs to be well below normal again.
The slow moving cold front is now along a line from Murfreesboro SW to around Corinth with scattered showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. This system will move to the NE thanks to SW flow around the parent upper low, and this will translate to showers/storms moving back into the area by Monday afternoon. The parent upper low over the Great Lakes will begin to wobble to the SE, bringing a cold front toward the area on Tuesday. The unsettled weather pattern will continue into the middle of the week as an amplified trough swings across the Midwest and a cold front moves through the TN Valley.
422 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017 The latest surface analysis would suggest a cold front is now bisecting the area from NE to SW. Behind the cold front expect NW winds and high pressure to build east. Meanwhile went cooler in Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland valley locales. A deep long wave trough will be in place across the middle of the country through mid-week.
/Today through Tonight/ Area currently beneath cyclonic flow aloft with lobes of energy rotating south/southeastward down through the region around the main upper trough spinning over western Ontario. This area of high pressure will shift southeastward as a weak developing area of low pressure across the Dakotas slides SE.
316 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017 Low pressure located north of Lake Superior will continue to move slowly east across Canada today. A cold front from this low will push well east of the area this morning. High pressure will cross the Ohio Valley later today and move to the east coast on Tuesday.
The chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist into Tuesday as a more pronounced upper level trof moves through the plains. Severe weather is not anticipated with this activity as instability will be on the low end.
Any showers that do make their way into the area should drift off to the east southeast overnight and by morning things should clear up for a few hours before the next wave approaches and a cold front pushes across the CWA.
This may change later tonight and especially Tuesday as a series of upper level disturbances over the Rockies/Central Plains moves southward through Texas in association with the vigorous upper trough strengthening over the Midwest and Central Plains.
138 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017 Aviation A large upper trough will camp out over the Great Lakes much of this week keeping the threat of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures will remain a bit below normal However, by the end of the week, the trough will move east and temperatures will rise as we head into the holiday weekend. We should see dry weather through Monday before a short wave rotates around the bottom of the upper trough.
Went a little cooler than Superblend across north central Kansas due to expectation of clouds and showers through the morning. Behind the cold front, high temperatures will only reach the low 60s with northwest winds gusting to around 30 MPH. A combination of cold air advection and an amplified upper level low will bring a chance for some light showers, particularly during the afternoon.
136 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017 A cold front will push east from the Ohio Valley and pass through PA on Monday. generally along and east of 35 to 40 kt 850 mb jet and elongated shearing upper trof crossing the region. The showers are butting into the western periphery of sharp upper ridge located just east of the region. Pressure barely dips and does not reach 1012mb along the frontal trough. Chance of a shower in the east Mon eve, then a weak area of high pressure will build in for Mon night into Tuesday - with a cooler morning and maybe some patchy fog in store.
344 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017 The latest surface analysis would suggest a cold front is now bisecting the area from NE to SW. Behind the cold front expect NW winds and high pressure to build east. Meanwhile went cooler in Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland valley locales.
216 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017 Dry weather is in store for today as high pressure tracks across the Ohio Valley.
Monday night and Tuesday, weak high pressure will build across the area, to temporarily bring drier, seasonable weather. The forecast begins with a brief break in the action, as one low rotates away from NY/PA to the east while the upper level trough digs into MN/WI. Southwest flow should result in a mix of clouds and sun with temperatures pushing into the lower or middle-70s.
134 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017 A cold front crosses tonight.
The elevated convection will be shwrs only for KTXK/KELD, but IFR for Monday in cooler air, everywhere along and S of I-20 however we'll see some MVFR or hrs of TSTMS or tempo brief IFR for such. /issued 1018 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017/ The evening sfc analysis indicates that our cold front has slipped S to along the TX Coastal Plains and the LA coast this evening, although the drier air lags the front a ways over Cntrl and Deep E TX into the Srn sections of Ncntrl LA. Given the high FFG values and lack of rain received the last couple of days across much of these areas, will not be issuing a Flash Flood Watch tonight as these areas should have little problem absorbing these rains.
High pressure will then bring drier and warmer conditions into the region on Tuesday.
415 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017 High pressure will bring drier and cooler conditions for the beginning of the week. High pressure will linger at the sfc tonight keeping the region dry. Lows will drop to the lower to mid 50s. Highs in Tuesday will warm into the lower to mid 70s, before cooling back to the lower to mid 50s.
Latest water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicates a broad upper low over the western Great Lakes continuing to lift NE this morning. At the surface, cold front currently extending SW across the Plateau into central Alabama will become nearly stationary along the spine of the Appalachians later today. Models are in fairly good agreement that most of the pcpn associated with this wave will be focused south of the area reaching only into our SW NC counties and the higher elevations of the Southern Appalachians in TN.
They will be short- lived, however, as rain reenters Tuesday with the approach of Mid-Atlantic low pressure. Rapidly drying dewpoints are evident across much of Ohio as a cold front slices through the area early this morning. A digging upper low will linger back toward the Mississippi Valley through mid-week. The lone exception to this may be the ridges.
214 AM PDT Mon May 22 2017 Dry conditions with warmer temperatures are expected under a ridge of high pressure through Tuesday.
Other than a few showers along the Continental Divide this afternoon, the remainder of the region will be warmer than normal by as much as 10 degrees with partly to mostly sunny skies. Tuesday will be an even warmer day as temperatures rise well into the 70s and 80s, generally 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
The showers are associated with an upper level trough that is nearing the area. As the trough gets closer, showers will continue to spread southward through the Panhandles. An associated cold front will speed through the area today as well and will swing winds to the north starting late this morning for northern areas and make it through the southern CWA by mid afternoon. Upper level ridging begins to build into the western CONUS and puts the Panhandles in northwest flow aloft. With little moisture to work with, the mountains in New Mexico will have little to turn into storms that can reach us; thus leaving the Panhandles dry until the end of the workweek when the next upper level trough approaches the area and can bring another chance for precip and another cold front.
359 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017 Weak cold front continues to make its way ewd thru the cntrl TN Valley this early Mon morning, with the only wx of note being some lower cloud cover/convective cu as suggested by GOES-16 IR imagery. Showers/tstms then return to the forecast in earnest later Tonight as a secondary cold front and surface wave develop along the wrn Gulf states in response to an amplifying upper low/trough axis dropping into the srn Plains/Lower MS Valley regions. In any case, the first half of the work week looks to be fairly wet until the passage of this next cold front Wed night.
1149 PM MDT Sun May 21 2017 The early afternoon GOES water vapor animation showed our region wedged between a vigorous upper low over the Upper Midwest and a stout upper ridge off the Pacific coast. High temperatures Monday will be a tad cooler across the northern CWA with the fropa during the morning.
Look for a near repeat tomorrow as high pressure will maintain very warm and dry conditions for inland areas through Monday.
612 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017 Temperatures range from 77 to 80 degrees across the island chain, with cooler conditions in areas where the wind has become calm. Dew points are in the low to mid 70s, and winds generally range from near 0 to 5 mph. The Pulley Ridge Buoy in the Southeastern Gulf reports 2 ft seas. On GOES-16 IR imagery (experimental and non-operational), a 'heat low' appears to be sliding down the western Florida Peninsula near the Pulley Ridge Buoy and is slowly becoming disorganized. High pressure ridging settles across South Florida and across the Florida Keys today, creating very low possibilities for showers. The aforementioned 'heat low' may be a focus for brief cloud cover this morning as it gradually approaches the Lower Keys.
/issued 140 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017/ Shrtwv trof moving across nrn MX along with steep LR/s and ample low level moisture have combined to result in pockets of heavy rain across the Big Bend/Lower Trans Pecos (2. These storms are tracking e and area of heaviest rain confined to the Lower Trans Pecos. By late afternoon Mon/Mon evening steep mid level LR/s within NW flow and surface Td in M50s in alignment with daytime heating along with an identifiable shrtwv trof will be a good set-up for tstms across PB. A cold front will quickly re-enforce outflow winds and brief post-frontal precip will be possible mainly in the morning across the PB and then Lower Trans Pecos/Big Bend region in the afternoon.
341 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017 Aloft, upper low continues to spin over northern Minnesota. Factors in favor of rainfall include strengthening cold front moving into Iowa, a strong short wave dropping out of Saskatchewan providing broadscale upper lift, and potential energy phasing between this short wave and the energy associated with the main upper low. Rounds of showers and storms will continue tonight as the cold front slowly works its way across the area.
In the east - an upper closed low continues to circulate/spin along the Ontario/Minnesota border. The closed upper low in southwest Ontario Monday will begin to sag south Monday night and Tuesday. Warmer afternoon highs can be expected with more sunshine west and north with mid/upper 60s.
251 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017 RAP and IR satellite analysis showed a large upper level low pressure center spinning over the US/Canadian border along the Minnesota state line this morning. This low is large enough currently to be dominating much of the flow in the CONUS minus the extreme western CONUS where a ridge of high pressure is beginning to build. A cold front will be driving southward overnight, and storms are expected to fire ahead of this feature.
A new cold front will be moving into the state Tue afternoon into Tue evening.
400 AM PDT Mon May 22 2017 High pressure aloft will continue the slow warming trend for inland areas through Tuesday.
High pressure continues today, with dry conditions expected.
The upper low over southern Ontario will shift a little to the east today but leave behind an upper trough that extends back over MN. Meanwhile, a weak cold front will track across the Midwest. Ahead of this cold front, southwesterly flow will usher modest low-level moisture into northern IL and southern WI this afternoon. More showers with a few thunderstorms are possible along the cold front as it slides southeast through south central WI in the 6-8 pm time period. Overnight lows should remain elevated in the lower/mid 50s due to cloud cover and lingering showers within the warm sector of the system.
642 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017 Given latest obs showing cooling temperatures and winds veering to the west and northwest suggest the cold front has made it through most the region this morning. The latest surface analysis would suggest a cold front is now bisecting the area from NE to SW. Behind the cold front expect NW winds and high pressure to build east. Meanwhile went cooler in Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland valley locales. A deep long wave trough will be in place across the middle of the country through mid-week.
426 AM MDT Mon May 22 2017 Very well-defined short wave trough pushing eastward across southern Colorado this morning, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continuing across the eastern half of the region as of 10z.
1244 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017 A persistent band of strato-cumulus clouds will continue to erode from south to north as the upper low in N Minnesota lifts farther away into Canada. Skies will clear from south to north this evening with loss of daytime heating, and the upper low currently over northern Minnesota edges northward. A piece of energy from an upper low over northern Saskatchewan tonight, and will swing southeast around the Minnesota low on Monday.
They will be short- lived, however, as rain reenters Tuesday with the approach of Mid-Atlantic low pressure. A cold front has finally started to edge into the CWA early this morning with dewpoint falls evident right on the doorstep of Zanesville and New Philadelphia as of 3 AM. A digging upper low will linger back toward the Mississippi Valley through mid-week. The lone exception to this may be the ridges.
644 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017 Dry weather is in store for today as high pressure tracks across the Ohio Valley.
locales are seeing a psunny/msunny mix with temperatures ranging in the 60s to the lower 70s with a light west/northwest wind. looking for overnight lows to drop into the lower and mid 30s.
A cold front will also swing through, and will enhance low level convergence. The closed upper low in southwest Ontario Monday will begin to sag south Monday night and Tuesday. Warmer afternoon highs can be expected with more sunshine west and north with mid/upper 60s.
locales are seeing a psunny/msunny mix with temperatures ranging in the 60s to the lower 70s with a light west/northwest wind. looking for overnight lows to drop into the lower and mid 30s. Chc PoPs remain in the forecast Monday night as an upper low moves southeastward into the southern Great Lakes region, extending a trough to the southwest.
a weather disturbance and its associated showers/isolated thunderstorms rotating around a low pressure area over Minnesota this morning will be nearly out of the area by 18z with decreasing cloudiness behind it. Lows should range from the upper 30s to around 40 in far eastern Colorado to the low to mid 40s elsewhere. Upper level ridging tries to move in from the west for the rest of the period with no chance of precipitation. Currently have high temperatures in the low to mid 60s with lows in the mid 30s to low 40s.
/12/ Prior discussion below: up across central Mississippi late this afternoon as a line of strong to severe storms has formed along a weak cold front that will drift southeast through the remainder of the CWA this evening. This activity should end well before midnight but the cold front will stall just south of the CWA. As the upper trough lingers over the region, another round of rain will be possible for the southern sections of the CWA on Tuesday given an atmosphere characterized by PW of 1.
145 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017 Low pressure over the northern Great Lakes will drift across eastern Canada through Monday. The associated cold front will slide across the area tonight. High pressure will cross the Ohio Valley Monday and move to the east coast on Tuesday.
641 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017 A weak cold front will approach from the west today and will push east through the region tonight.
633 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017 Weak cold front exits the eastern mountains this morning.
200 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017 A cold front will move east through the area tonight. High pressure will build in for the beginning of the week offering drier and cooler conditions. Cold front will continue to move east through the remainder of the eastern half of the CWFA through 06Z, or 2 am. Skies should become partly cloudy behind the front with drier and cooler air filtering into the region. This high will offer drier conditions and temperatures a little below normal. Mondays highs to range from the upper 60s north to the lower 70s south. Spawned from an upper low moving from northern Ontario to northern Quebec, a secondary upper trough (and eventually a closed low) will move south through northern Mississippi Valley region, as southwesterly flow aloft becomes more established over the southeastern states.
Weak cold front will shift surface winds to north by 18z at northern terminals, and around 21z at AMA. Stronger cold front arrives shortly after 06z Tuesday, just beyond the scope of this forecast. An upper trough tracking east out of the central and southern Rockies will allow for isolated to widely scattered convection mainly over the northwestern portions of the Panhandles early but then spreading south and east across the remainder of the forecast area by 12Z Monday. The cold front will track across the Panhandles Monday night as convection lingers across much of the Panhandles through Monday night.
337 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 The MCS that pushes through this morning threw a wrench in the forecast for the day by providing a large area of relatively stable cooler air over the region. The focal point for this development is going to be an elevated warm frontal boundary around that is currently setting up right along the I-70 corridor. This synoptic setup looks to break the area into two different threats for the CWA with the first one being flash flooding near the KC Metro area and the second being severe weather near the KC Metro and south into the warmer stable air near the surface warm frontal boundary. 0", storm motion mostly parallel to the warm frontal boundary, and the quasi-stationary nature of this boundary for 6-9 hours this evening.
223 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 A warmer and more humid airmass will work into the region on southerly winds as low pressure in the northern Great Lakes region drapes a cold front southwest towards Texas on Friday.