Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. A STATIONARY FRONT LIES ALONG THE SC AND GA COASTS AND A WEAKENING INVERTED TROUGH STILL LIES OVER THE EASTERN TN VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY BUT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE SOUTH AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
909 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
A STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY. A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS AND SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO REBUILD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
629 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
12Z RAOB SHOWING A STRONG INVERSION IN THE LOWEST 5KFT WHICH DOESN'T BODE WELL TO OUR LIKELIHOOD OF BREAKING THIS CLOUD COVER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE WATERS LATE SAT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NNE INTO SUN AND A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ELEVATING WINDS TO 15-20 KTS.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE/BIG BEND REGION. EAST FLOW CONTINUES, STILL LIGHT ENOUGH TODAY THAT GULF COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT PICKING UP LATER THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH PASSES TO OUR SOUTH AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION MOVES IN. BETTER RAIN CHANCES (30-40%) OVER ATLANTIC AND EAST COAST TONIGHT WITH TROUGH/WAVE.
UPPER LEVEL LOW AXIS IS SWINGING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. MODELS ARE INDICATING THE TROUGH WILL SPLIT AND THE SOUTHERN BRANCH WILL MOVE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES AND VERTICAL PROFILES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN THE HIGHLIGHT FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND BROAD RIDGING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. NEXT EMBEDDED S/WV LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIP TYPE TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE ABOVE FREEZING AND SFC TEMPS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 32F.
531 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 AN ANOMALOUS AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN U.
THE UPPER LOW HAS MOVED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH HEIGHTS RISING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NUDGES IN FROM THE WEST. AND WITH THE COOL AIR MASS THE SHASTA AND SCOTT VALLEYS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT SLIDES DOWN THE BACK OF THE UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE IS VERY EARLY MORNING.
LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND WILL NUDGE SLOWLY NORTH AS FRONTAL TROUGH FROM THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WEAKENS. WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE NUDGING NORTH. LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND WILL NUDGE SLOWLY NORTH AS FRONTAL TROUGH FROM THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WEAKENS.
DUE TO A PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING ACROSS FLORIDA. SHORT TERM UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON) - RIDGING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. DUE TO RIDGING TO OUR NORTH. WINDS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH IS REINFORCED BY ANOTHER HIGH CELL DESCENDING OUT OF CANADA.
General ridging at the surface and aloft will keep the weather quiet through mid week.
628 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEK.
UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS NEAR THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS DIMINISHED WHILE SHIFTING NORTHEAST AND AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS QUICKLY BUILD IN OVER THE AREA.
COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK AS A COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN SLOWLY MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. A COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT PASSED OVER THE REGION YESTERDAY HAS DEPARTED INTO THE GREAT BASIN LEAVING NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA IN DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW AND A COOLER AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S AT SOME VALLEY SITES IN NORTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TONIGHT AND PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER BY EARLY WED MORNING. SO IT WILL TAKE OVERNIGHT LONG WAVE COOLING FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO BE REALIZED. WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS FOUND SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO.
935 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST COAST AND A WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE WEEK.
633 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE WEDGE CONDITIONS LINGERING WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTH.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEVADA. ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND MOISTURE SHIFT FURTHER INLAND TODAY. WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS ALOFT. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE RUNNING IN THE LOW 50S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS. YET TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER GIVEN LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND THAT THE COLDER AIR MASS WILL HAVE SETTLED INTO THE REGION.
WEAK AND MOIST NORTHERLY COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE WAKE OF THE RAINY WEEKEND SYSTEM HAS PROVEN TO BE A GOOD RECIPE FOR DOGGED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS REGIME SHOULD BE ONLY SLIGHTLY MODIFYING THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE INSTIGATING THE AFOREMENTIONED MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW RETREATS TO THE NORTH.
401 AM PST TUE NOV 3 2015 Scattered showers along with cool temps linger across portions of the Sierra today while the remainder of interior NorCal will see a little warmer temps along with breezy north winds. The main part of the cold upper trough shifts east over the Great Basin and Rockies today as ridging over the eastern Pacific begins to return over NorCal.
1046 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 AN ANOMALOUS AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN U.
650 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN AN EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY VICINITY OF CENTRAL GA SHOULD KEEP THAT AREA IN SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR.
AFTER THE PLENTIFUL RAIN AND SNOW THE PAST 30 OR SO HOURS, ROADS ARE WET AND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING, THEY MAY BE SLICK EVEN IN THE LOWEST WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS. THE COLD AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TODAY, THOUGH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SLIDING SOUTH AND EAST AS THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY EXITS THE REGION.
700 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 AN ANOMALOUS AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN U.
525 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WITH BROAD RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE NATION. RIDGING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A RETURN FLOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF STRATUS AND DENSE FOG ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS ILLINOIS. WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION AND LOW SUN ANGLE IN EARLY NOVEMBER. THE QUESTION ON WEDNESDAY IS HOW EXTENSIVE WILL THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG BE ACROSS THE AREA. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
WENT MUCH WARMER FOR TNT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ON WED WITH THE THICKENING CLOUD CVR.
601 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST COAST AND A WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE WEEK.
544 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 OVERALL WARMING WILL PICK UP TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. MID AND UPPER LEVELS EVEN DOWN PARTLY INTO THE LOW LEVELS LOOK TO STAY FAIRLY DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION INVOLVES THE LOWEST LEVELS OF MOISTURE. BELIEVE THE HABITUALLY APPEARING OVERDOING OF THE LOW LEVEL RH BY THE NAM COULD BE RELATED TO THE WEAK DIURNAL WARMING BY THE MODEL WHICH I HAVE NOTICED ON OCCASION. STRATUS ALL DAY WOULD LIKELY LEAD TOWARDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
538 AM MST TUE NOV 3 2015 STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS UTAH TODAY AND REACH THE WESTERN SLOPE THIS EVENING. BUT COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN DROPPING SNOW LEVELS TO 7K-8K BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER GIVEN THE AIR MASS CHANGE. ENERGY FROM THE BACKSIDE OF ELONGATED TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS COINCIDES WITH MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.
However, all indications suggest this is still just a foretaste of what's to come today as a consolidated upper level low pressure system lifts northeast out of Nevada, tracking across Idaho and Montana through tonight. The higher terrain will see widespread 4-6 inch amounts, with some of the peaks measuring up to 10 inches! Snow showers will taper off overnight and come to an end by midday Wednesday.
941 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE WEDGE CONDITIONS LINGERING WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTH.
BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BACKING OUT TO THE NORTH LATER TODAY AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS JUST EAST OF FLORIDA. THEN GRADUALLY BACK OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
625 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 DRY AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR SKIES.
THINK THE THINNER CLOUDS/FOG ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR WILL ERODE. THEREFORE WHERE EXACTLY THE CLOUDS/FOG ERODE AND CLOUDS HOLD WILL PLAY GREATLY INTO THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST. BAROCLINIC ZONE CONTINUES ACROSS THE FA SO WILL AGAIN SEE A RESPECTABLE THERMAL GRADIENT WITH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOLAR/WARMER COLUMN ACROSS THE SOUTH. ARC OF PCPN AROUND THE LOW REMAINS TO OUR NORTH SO MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST. ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT BISECTS MN FROM N-S WITH 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS LIFTING INTO THE SE.
1036 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE LOWEST SURFACE VISIBILITIES HAVE REMAINED IN MORE RURAL LOCATIONS WHILE LOW CEILINGS ARE MORE OF AN ISSUE IN THE URBAN AREAS. WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPING. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/WESTERN NEVADA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.
A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WITH A TROUGH DRAPED FROM THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN THE HIGHLIGHT FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND BROAD RIDGING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. NEXT EMBEDDED S/WV LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIP TYPE TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE ABOVE FREEZING AND SFC TEMPS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 32F.
524 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 A WESTERN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EVOLVING INTO A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA EXTENDING FROM COLORADO THROUGH NORTHWEST MINNESOTA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AND THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS AT OR LESS THAN 1KM IN NAM SOUNDINGS AT THIS POINT.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTH OREGON COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY.
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD OVER NORTH FLORIDA TODAY.
1037 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST TODAY WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHWEST. A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PERIODIC CHANCES OF QPF AS DISTURBANCES RIDE ATOP THE RIDGE. HOWEVER THE GREATEST CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN COLORADO/WYOMING AND THE WESTERN PANHANDLE.
630 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015 CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REGION BENEATH A LARGE H500 RIDGE ALOFT. CURRENT WV IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER TEXAS WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA INTO CANADA. DEEP UPPER LOW WAS ALSO LOCATED OFF THE PAC NW COAST LEAVING INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES AND HAVING SOME TROUBLES WITH THE EMBEDDED VORT MAXES THAT WILL BE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE.
A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS STILL TO OUR WEST AND COULD SEND A FEW WEAK WAVES THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW. MARINE LYR AHD OF THE LOW WILL CONT TO PROTECT THE FCST AREA FROM CONV. UPR TROF CONTS TO DIG AND DEEPEN INTO THU. THEY WILL BE ASSISTED BY WEAKER WV ROTATING THRU THE TROF AS IT DEEPENS. TROF AXIS PASSES EAST OF THE AREA THU MRNG FLWD BY DRIER AIR AND SLOWLY RISING HGTS ALLOWING TEMPS TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT AND LIMITING THE DVLPMT OF SHWRS.
GIVEN THE DRY AIR STILL IN THE LOW-LEVELS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD OF THE WEST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NM/TX WILL TURN FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY WILL BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE FIRST MAINLY TO MOHAVE COUNTY TODAY.
SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AND AN UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
1018 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
1059 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND LOW SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY MID WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SE OF PIT ALONG A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT. EXPECTING BROKEN CU/STRATOCU TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN BROAD UPPER TROUGHING.
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH SUPPORTIVE OF CU DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION AS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
634 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015 MOIST AND COOLER NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EVEN WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERHEAD. /ISSUED 332 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015/ UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ZONES BY TONIGHT. RMCQUEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MIGRATE WEST THIS WEEK AND EVENTUALLY PARK NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
/ISSUED 425 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015/ COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS ALSO A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL GA. THE TROUGH AND FRONT SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCI FOR CONVECTION TODAY. WHERE CLOUDS BREAK OUT IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AND/OR FRONT IS WHERE STORMS SHOULD INITIATE TODAY.
/ISSUED 344 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015/ 06Z POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT IS ROUGHLY LOCATED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL BE MOVING IN.
632 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH DAKOTA. THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
738 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 AVIATION/HYDROLOGY COOLER AND LESS HUMID DAY TODAY WITH A FEW BRIEF POP UP SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
701 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THIS MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SO EXPECT OUTFLOWS FROM CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO HELP PRODUCE SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. MAY BUMP UP POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN A LITTLE MORE WHERE CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WITH WK MID LVL FLOW OVER THE AREA. ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A POSSIBLE WK DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTN. EAST OF THE MTNS THE LOW LVL FLOW WILL INCREASE FM THE SSE AS A TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPS DUE TO LOW PRES OVER THE MTNS AND HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER COLORADO.
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OFF OF THE WEST COAST. A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE LATE IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES WEST OF THE OREGON COAST THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK.
COLD FRONT IS NOW APPROACHING NORTHERN TENNESSEE EARLY TODAY AFFECTING TRI WITH IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY.
RADAR SHOWS A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA AT THE MOMENT BUT COLD FRONT STILL SET TO MOVE THROUGH TODAY WHICH WILL SPARK UP ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 89 68 86 65 / 30 10 10 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 86 67 83 62 / 30 10 10 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 87 66 83 62 / 30 10 10 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 83 62 81 59 / 30 10 10 0.
656 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015 07Z/2AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT SETTLING SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ALLOWING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS TO TRICKLE INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST KILX CWA. CU-RULE SUPPORTS SCT DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOPING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS. OVERALL TREND HOWEVER WILL BE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S.
1252 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
940 AM PDT TUE AUG 11 2015 A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW TODAY WITH STATUS PERSISTING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID MORNING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED 300 MILES OFF OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EDGE WESTWARD MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
1211 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 THE COLD FRONT IS STARTING TO PUSH INTO FAR NORTH GA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE STORM ANYWHERE TODAY AHEAD OF THAT COLD FRONT. /ISSUED 425 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015/ COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS ALSO A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL GA. THE TROUGH AND FRONT SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCI FOR CONVECTION TODAY. WHERE CLOUDS BREAK OUT IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AND/OR FRONT IS WHERE STORMS SHOULD INITIATE TODAY.
1046 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY.
515 AM PDT TUE AUG 11 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SHRINK THE MARINE CLOUD LAYER AND BRING A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY THIS WEEKEND. BUT THE REAL WARMING WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO PUSH WESTWARD.
1032 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND LATE THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT MID MORNING THE COLD FRONT WAS STILL WEST OF HARRISBURG MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS COLD/DRY ADVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND THE RAP INDICATES WE WILL SEE LAYER AVERAGE NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO OVERCOME SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW POSSILBE INVERTED V PROFILE IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE INDICATING POSSIBLE MICROBURST WIND THREAT WITH ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP. THE TREND THEN IS FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. EVEN WITH THE HIGH HEAT. THE SUBSIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA DRIFTS OUT OF CENTRAL TX INTO THE PANHANDLE. AS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA DRIFTS INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
831 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 A COLD FRONT APPROACHING TODAY WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE HIGH- RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SCATTERED COVERAGE. WE USED THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDINESS DURING MOST OF THE DAY. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT SUPPORTS A CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCE TONIGHT. CLOUDINESS AND MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT FAVORS THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. THE COLD FRONT MAY STALL IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. BUT REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
946 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THROUGH TODAY WITH THE RIDGE REMAINING TO OUR WEST. MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS JUST EXTENDING OVER FAR SOUTH FLORIDA.
603 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015 /12Z TAFS/ A weak cold front will slowly move through the area today. A weak cold front will slowly move south through the Big Country today. This will result in slightly cooler temperatures across the Big Country, with highs generally in the upper 90s.
1005 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
617 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015 MODELS IN AGREEMENT NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH AS AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE WRN/CNTRL CONUS AMPLIFIES FURTHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SITUATED WELL WEST OF THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING THIS TIME.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO STILL BE RATHER HUMID UNTIL THE SECONDARY BOUNDARY PASSES.