Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
We'll see a few sites rise into the low 50s before we start to cool. Overnight lows tonight should be several degrees warmer thanks to increasing southerly winds and clouds over the northwest.
328 PM CST Wed Jan 13 2021 Key Points: -Fairly significant change in the weather is expected tomorrow as a strong cold front works through the region early on Thursday.
726 PM CST Wed Jan 13 2021 With strong winds gusting around 60 mph just west of the CWA and with gusts over 40 mph in the forecast area, started the High Wind Warning at 7 pm CST/6 pm MST for counties west river, which is two hours earlier than before.
Cold front is expected to surge through the forecast area tonight and am anticipating an initial brief increase in winds right along the front, generally in the 08z- 12z time frame. Outside of a few flurries the main impact this wave will have will be to keep cooler temps in place through the weekend. Strong northwest winds and low level wind shear are the main concerns late tonight through Thursday behind a cold frontal passage.
Point forecast soundings continue to indicate a pronounced warm nose aloft and high potential for evaporative cooling below the cloud base, so we do expect sleet to occasionally mix with the light rain (especially beneath the higher reflectivity cores). Mid/high-level cloud cover will gradually clear this evening in the wake of the disturbance, leading to an environment conducive for the development of freezing fog once again. However, conditions may not be quite as favorable for radiational cooling given a light but persistent SSW flow, and for this reason we expect the coverage of freezing fog to be more patchy and confined to wind-protected valley locations. This will ultimately carve out a broad longwave trough over the central CONUS, with deep-layer WSW flow expected to strengthen across the local area and lead to a fairly warm afternoon with highs in the mid 50s.
The surface reflection of the upper low will drag a cold front through the forecast area on Thursday.
623 PM MST Wed Jan 13 2021 With increasing wind gusts in the Nebraska Panhandle, we decided to start the High Wind Warnings at 23Z with RAWS sites gusting at 60 MPH already. The sustained winds and wind gusts were updated to reflect the High Wind Warning. With the potent cold front and associated upper level trough still forecast to push across that area sometime late this evening and overnight, decided to add them to the HW Warning since there is a good chance they will hit criteria sometime tonight or Thursday.
In its wake, high pressure will build back into the area through the end of the work week.
635 PM EST Wed Jan 13 2021 Dry weather is expected tonight and Thursday as high pressure persists to the south.
With the potent cold front and associated upper level trough still forecast to push across that area sometime late this evening and overnight, decided to add them to the HW Warning since there is a good chance they will hit criteria sometime tonight or Thursday.
/issued 142 PM EST Wed Jan 13 2021/ A mid-level trough over Louisiana will continue to move eastward through the rest of the day as a frontal boundary remains south of the region. This set up will continue to bring some light showers moving over the area from the Gulf, although rainfall totals will be on the low side again.
450 PM MST Wed Jan 13 2021 Slightly warmer across most of the region this afternoon in response to increased cloud cover ahead of an approaching trough. The Craig area reached above the freezing mark for the first time in a week with low temperatures this morning at areas such as Meeker, Gunnison and Rangely climbing some 10 degrees from what was experienced yesterday morning. The base of the aforementioned trough centered over the Northern Plains will brush northwest Colorado this evening. Previous forecast accumulations remain on track with generally 1 to 4 inches expected in the higher elevations and half an inch or less in the adjacent high valleys. Even though precipitation totals won't be overly impressive in our region with this system, we will see other impacts as the upper level gradient tightens significantly with the trough's passage.
A strong cold front will move through the TAF sites tomorrow morning, with gusty northwesterly winds developing later Thursday morning. This wave will aid in driving a cold front through the region tomorrow with strong post frontal winds expected.
635 PM EST Wed Jan 13 2021 Weak low pressure will move across tonight.
1213 AM EST Thu Jan 14 2021 A mix of rain and snow is possible early this morning, mainly north of Pittsburgh, with a fast moving trough. Dry weather and a warming trend is then expected before low pressure returns rain and snow to the region Friday through the weekend. Ridging and prevailing SW flow will keep the region dry and warmer than average overnight; temperatures are expected to be 10 degrees above the climatological average.
/issued 253 PM CST Wed Jan 13 2021/ Breezy west winds have developed across many areas today resulting in a quick warm up for most with afternoon temperatures already a good 5-10 degrees warmer than what we saw yesterday. Temperatures overnight will be warmer tonight than previous nights with lows generally ranging from the mid 30s to low 40s. A dry cold front will move through the region Thursday, with gusty north winds persisting much of the day. Cooler temperatures will stick around into Friday as another cold front Friday morning reinforces the cool and dry airmass.
959 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE.
753 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS EVENING. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE EARLY THIS WEEK. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS EVENING. AN UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS CHANCES IN THE AREAS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW ACROSS THE TN/MS VALLEY REGIONS.
UPDATE: Upper LOW churning over extreme south-central MO this evening has ejected an upper level disturbance to the northeast of the LOW center, near KMDH in southern IL, and has resulted in light rain with some measurable. This situation is expected to continue until late Monday morning when the LOW finally pulls away.
757 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
AS THE TROUGH AS MOVED CLOSER TO THE AREA. /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/ UPPER TROF OVER ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER.
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEEPEST LATE IN THE WEEK. SOME WARMING IS POSSIBLE BY NEXT SUNDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. WITH SOME STRATUS/FOG MAKING IT INTO PARTS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING IN.
1155 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVERHEAD THROUGH MONDAY. AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITS INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC. WITH THE LOWEST READINGS OVER THE W THIRD OF UPPER MI.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROF OVER ARKANSAS. THIS TROF IS FORECAST TO BECOME A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DRIFT EASTWARD THIS WEEK. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CUT-OFF FROM THE MAIN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES AND THERE IS NO UPSTREAM KICKER TO DISLODGE THE SYSTEM.
850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE BACK INTO THE TEENS /ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN OTHER MODELS/. MODELS HINT AT PERHAPS SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM FROM 500 MB RIDGE AXIS THAT STRETCHED ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO UP TOWARD SOUTHERN ALBERTA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. SURFACE WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE H5 RIDGE SHIFTS INTO NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO THROUGH MONDAY AS A MID TROPOSPHERIC TROF MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST. THE H5 RIDGE STRETCHES FROM NEW MEXICO INTO NEBRASKA. THERE IS VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED. THE MAIN ISSUE IS A SLOWLY MOVING WEAK COLD FRONT THAT TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL BE RUNNING INTO A FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. MAKING THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE APPROACHING FRONT AND THE HIGH A GRADUAL ONE.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE PLAINS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS SHOULD SHIFT FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
720 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS IN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A DRY EAST FLOW OVER THE AREA THAT WILL KEEP THE DEW POINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S. BECAUSE OF THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. ONLY EXPECT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AS IT PASSES BY.
A COOLER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE OFF THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND IF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HOLD TOGETHER INTO THE WEST THIS EVENING. EASTERN CWA WITH MORE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW AND COOLER AIR REMAINING IN PLACE SHOULD SEE THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S BY EARLY MONDAY.
ALSO ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPS DOWNWARD FOR THIS EVENING AND LOWERED THE OVERNIGHT MINS SLIGHTLY IN SOME LOCATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COOLER TEMPS THIS EVENING. ALL AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AND THE MID/UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST THROUGH THE REGION.
745 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVERHEAD THROUGH MONDAY. AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITS INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC. WITH THE LOWEST READINGS OVER THE W THIRD OF UPPER MI.
A NE-SW ORIENTED MEAN LAYER 1000-500 MB RIDGE AXIS PERSISTED ACROSS COASTAL SE GA AND NE FL THIS EVENING WHICH KEPT CONVECTION TAME AND NON-EXISTENT. WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE ST.
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN TOMORROW WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST AGAIN AS THE LOW CENTER TRACKS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH TO ALABAMA.
For tonight, look for patchy fog with overnight lows falling into the low to mid 50s.
COOLER TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST. THE CHANGE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES IS ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH PACHECO PASS NOW 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY TO PLACE THE AREA UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE LOW END (AROUND 1000 J/KG) WITH A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY RUNNING COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE NORTH AND EAST BAY WHILE COASTAL AND SOUTHERN SPOTS ARE ABOUT THE SAME. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE EVENING WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF ASSOCIATED PRECIP TO OUR NORTH. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TOMORROW BEHIND THE FRONT. IN FACT 850MB READINGS DROP 3 TO 5 C WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME INLAND LOCATIONS 3 TO 7 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY. QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT WAS CENTERED OVER SERN ARIZONA PER 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDING ANALYSIS WITH WIDESPREAD H5 HEIGHTS MEASURED AT 589DM.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
STILL A RATHER NICE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE ROTATING NORTHEAST WITHIN THE OZARKS UPPER TROUGH/LOW. BELIEVE A GOOD PORTION OF THIS WILL SURVIVE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE VIEWING AREA OVERNIGHT BUT MAY FADE TO A CERTAIN DEGREE AS IT CONTINUES EAST SO WILL KEEP THE HIGH CHANCE THROUGH LIKELY POPS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT WILL TRIM POP BACK A BIT FOR EASTERN SECTIONS FOR THE LATE LATE NIGHT PERIOD. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 67 82 65 80 / 70 70 40 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 81 63 79 / 60 70 50 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 67 81 63 79 / 60 70 50 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 62 83 62 77 / 50 70 60 30.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP LIGHT FLOW OVERNIGHT AND DAYTIME SEA BREEZES DOMINATING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
Weatherwise, it will be a quiet and cool night with lows in the lower 50s. If a few breaks in the clouds can occur over east central Kansas into west central Missouri where readings can efficiently cool where the highest moisture resides, there may be some patchy fog overnight. Upper level ridging will build into the region early this work week, keeping the appreciable weather relatively tranquil.
941 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
1000 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
834 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS EVENING. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE EARLY THIS WEEK. BULK OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE RIDGES WITH WEAK PRE- FRONTAL WIND SHIFT. AN UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS CHANCES IN THE AREAS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW ACROSS THE TN/MS VALLEY REGIONS.
/ISSUED 958 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/ UPPER TROF STILL SITTING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE REGION WITH ISOLD SHWRS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SRN AR AND N CNTRL LA. ALONG WITH SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER OVER OUR WRN/SWRN SECTIONS WITH TEMPORARY CLEARING ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST.
/ISSUED 215 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/ CLOUDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CONT THIS AFTN ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE FA. THE MODELS SHOW THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. MODELS ALSO SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO PARTS OF THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS EVENING PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN AROUND THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE AREA. THE DRY AIR AND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSIST TOMORROW AND KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET. AS HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY PLANTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES GRADUALLY LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE NORTHLAND WEATHER.
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY.
949 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE RIDGES. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE EARLY THIS WEEK. COLD FRONT NEAR KDUJ TO KLBE TO WEST OF KMGW. BULK OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE RIDGES WITH WEAK PRE- FRONTAL WIND SHIFT. AN UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS CHANCES IN THE AREAS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW ACROSS THE TN/MS VALLEY REGIONS.
748 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
944 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
1246 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVERHEAD THROUGH MONDAY. AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITS INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC. WITH THE LOWEST READINGS OVER THE W THIRD OF UPPER MI.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERATE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS UTAH THROUGH MONDAY THEN A PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST UTAH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THEN PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A DISTURBANCE MONDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS.
AT 23Z A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR LONDON, KY TO NEAR NASHVILLE AND CORINTH, MS.
The sun has come through increasingly throughout the afternoon though, and temperatures have warmed into the upper 60s with expectation to still reach the low 70s for most of the forecast area. Tonight, southerly return flow will continue across the High Plains and central KS. Monday night scattered convection off the high plains will progress eastward into central KS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH EASTWARD REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE THE WEATHER FEATURE TO DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS PER LATEST MSAS/LAPS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
THE REST OF OUR CWA WAS CONVECTIVELY QUIET TODAY DESPITE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER OUR CWA WILL MOVE EAST LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH COMES IN ACROSS OREGON. AND CLOUDS AND THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL MAKE MONDAY COOLER THAN IT WAS TODAY.
A BROAD UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THERE COULD BE SOME FOG FORMING LATE TONIGHT BUT DON'T EXPECT IT TO BECOME LOCALLY DENSE WITH SO MUCH MID DECK BUILDING IN WITH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UPPER TROUGH.
AND H25 TROUGH AXIS IS PROG TO SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNRISE.
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES TROF OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MONTANA/WYOMING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING INTO WESTERN DAKOTAS.
958 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 UPPER TROF STILL SITTING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE REGION WITH ISOLD SHWRS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SRN AR AND N CNTRL LA. ALONG WITH SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER OVER OUR WRN/SWRN SECTIONS WITH TEMPORARY CLEARING ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST.
ELSEWHERE DRY AIR ACCOMPANYING THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROF AXIS NOW LYING BASICALLY OVERHEAD HAS KEPT CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM THIS AFTERNOON. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVE CARBON COPY OF TODAY AS THE TROF ALOFT PUSHES SLOWLY EWD AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE MID-SOUTH.
957 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A DISTURBANCE MONDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS.
635 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 230 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ON EITHER SIDE N AL/S MIDDLE TN DUE TO EARLIER CLOUD COVER SUPPRESSING SB INSTABILITY AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE NW QUADRANT (GA/E TN) OF THE RETREATING RIDGE.
THEN THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE WESTERN TO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. STILL MAY SEE A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ACROSS EAST-SOUTHEAST ZONES INTO THE EARLY EVENING ALONG TRAILING 700 MB TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST MONDAY EVENING AS UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST.
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THIS LOW IS RATHER LARGE. A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TAKES PLACE. THIS WILL CAUSE THE DISTURBANCES IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO TRAVEL ALONG THE RIDGE AND REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO CAUSE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO INCREASE. ONE NOTE ABOUT THE FORECAST IS THAT IF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOT AS STRONG AS CURRENTLY FORECAST. KRC RIDGE BUILDING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND.
The sun has come through increasingly throughout the afternoon though, and temperatures have warmed into the upper 60s with expectation to still reach the low 70s for most of the forecast area. Tonight, southerly return flow will continue across the High Plains and central KS. With slight movement in the ridge placement through out the day the better moisture, steeper lapse rates, and low level jet should all be focused further east towards our area. Most likely weakening in the process though especially given some drier air in the lower levels.
/ISSUED 327 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/ CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW ALONG MO/KS BORDER HAS HELPED MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND RESULTED IN SOME SPOTTY SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. MORE SUN EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS A BIT FARTHER EAST. UPPER LOW WILL TEMPORARILY CUT OFF ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THROUGH ABOUT MID-WEEK BEFORE DRIFTING FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE SE ATLANTIC STATES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR UPPER RIDGING/RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION.
TONIGHT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE TROUGH AND WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ELSEWHERE DRY AIR ACCOMPANYING THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROF AXIS NOW LYING BASICALLY OVERHEAD HAS KEPT CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM THIS AFTERNOON. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVE CARBON COPY OF TODAY AS THE TROF ALOFT PUSHES SLOWLY EWD AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE MID-SOUTH.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. PRESSING A SHORT WAVE RIDGE EASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GENTLE EAST- SOUTHEAST BREEZES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S. THE HEATING OF THE NEARBY LANDMASSES CREATED ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO GIVE THE KBYX RADAR LITTLE TO DO ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
1229 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
FURTHER FROM THE LOW. THINK THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST. WHILE THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY WITH THE TRACK OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO EITHER CUT OFF ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO OR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. SHARP WARM UP EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE MONDAY. WARM FRONT FEATURE SEEN ON ALONG THE 295-300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE ROUNDS THE RIDGE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.