Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Concerns and impacts in the short term will be rainfall chances as upper trough slowly advances east today.
The upper level trough will continue to sharpen today and tonight from the northern Plains south-southwest through New Mexico, and remain there through the short-term. An upper level low and associated tropical wave over the north-central Gulf of Mexico today will continue westward through the short-term.
The region remains under southeast flow at the mid levels as the area is between an inverted trough over the Gulf and ridging off the Carolina coast. The inverted trough retrogrades westward tonight into tomorrow with ridging building in across the region. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the lower 70s.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected along the high terrain this afternoon and into the evening. A few cumulus clouds have begin to develop across the high terrain over souther Yavapai and along the Mogollon Rim. PoPs were updated this morning to include the high terrain of southern Yavapai County to mention showers. Storm motion is most favored to be south- southeastward today as Arizona is situated between building high pressure over the Pacific Northwest and a deep open wave trough over the Front Range / Central Plains. The primary storm hazards today will be moderate rainfall immediately under any storms, gusty outflow winds due to the higher-based nature of any showers or thunderstorms and cloud to ground lightning strikes. Storm and shower coverage is most likely to linger into the evening for areas south of the high terrain in east-central Arizona.
On Sunday, the upper level trough doesn't move 'that' much but it does look to move just enough to the south and east to keep convection over and near Vail Pass and the San Juans. These storms will likely remain tied to the higher terrain, at least for the early part of the week. Later in the week, as the ridge continues to break down and the trough shifts a bit to the east, models are hinting at a return of deeper moisture further north.
338 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 The forecast in the short term is primarily being driven by northerly flow on the downstream side of an anomalously strong PAC NW upper level ridge. The CWA sits under a plains trough with the main surface feature of note well south of the CWA. Showers have been noted on the KLNX radar much of the day with now some deeper convection being noted off the Pine Ridge and southeastern lee of the Black Hills. More of the same for Sunday as the region sits under the influence of broad troughing. In the extended there's fairly good agreement that the highly anomalous PAC NW Ridge will largely remain in place, though weaken slightly through the forecast period.
Large omega blocking pattern will cause no major changes to the upper flow regime for the Ohio Valley in the short term. Strong high pressure dome over British Columbia has resulted in a large area of Excessive Heat headlines where forecast temperatures threaten all- time records for the Pacific Northwest US. For tomorrow, the Central Plains trough will remain to our north and west, but we could have some diurnally driven isolated or scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder within the deep SW flow.
Ridging continues to expand with temperatures a degree or two warmer than yesterday. With minimal instability and weak mid-level lapse rates, convection is forecast to be limited with only 10 to 20 PoPs across the higher elevations and adjacent areas. In the upper levels, a ridge remains over the East Coast and Southeast. A trough is over the Central U. At the surface, high pressure will be over the East Coast and Southeast. Dew points will start to get into the mid and upper 60s late this afternoon and evening in the lower elevations of the Tennessee Valley.
A long wave trough axis stretches southwest from near Bermuda to eastern Cuba. Over the Gulf of Mexico, a mid to upper level cyclone has induced a weak surface feature sliding west along the cyclone's eastern flank. There may be occasions of DCVA as a piece of the upper low near Bermuda meanders west across Florida and wobbles over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, although the complex cellular nature to the upper level pattern leaves little confidence in timing these episodes of lift. The second feature of synoptic importance will be the inverted trough sliding west towards Florida.
241 PM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021 Atlantic high pressure will direct an onshore flow into the area. Since there is some increased ridging aloft as the primary ridge shifts west slightly, there is limited instability due to additional capping and subsidence that should suppress any widespread strong convection, despite heating and PWATs near 2 inches. Afternoon high temps expected to reach the mid- upper 80s with overnight lows only falling into the low 70s. An upper ridge centered near the Mid Atlantic coast will extend into the southeastern states. The lower moisture and lack of a trigger should result in lower rain chances.
High pressure continues to build into the area today from the northwest, which is resulting in northerly winds across the area, along with some fair weather cumulus to pop up across the area. As this high pressure builds in, expect temperatures to be similar to where they were yesterday or just a few degrees warmer. Expect another similar day on Sunday as the high pressure system remains overhead, with temperatures just a touch warmer, with most areas in the 80s. As we head into the work week, a strong, slow moving upper level ridge will push into the area, which will lead to a prolonged heat wave across the state.
324 PM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021 Large omega blocking pattern will cause no major changes to the upper flow regime for the Ohio Valley in the short term. Strong high pressure dome over British Columbia has resulted in a large area of Excessive Heat headlines where forecast temperatures threaten all- time records for the Pacific Northwest US. For tomorrow, the Central Plains trough will remain to our north and west, but we could have some diurnally driven isolated or scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder within the deep SW flow.
405 PM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021 Latest analysis shows a positive tilted trough over the central part of the country with a surface front stretching from the southern plains up to the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile to our east, an upper level high continues to build in from the east. Forecast soundings show plenty of dry air at the low levels and aloft so it will be tough for any convection to develop, but do have pops around 10% this evening to account for the small possibility.
332 PM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021 Latest analysis shows a positive tilted trough over the central part of the country with a surface front stretching from the southern plains up to the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile to our east, an upper level high continues to build in from the east. Forecast soundings show plenty of dry air at the low levels and aloft so it will be tough for any convection to develop, but do have pops around 10% this evening to account for the small possibility.
This afternoon's water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough extends across the Northern and Central Plains while a ridge is located off of the East Coast. On the southwestern periphery of the ridge, an inverted trough is progressing westward along the northern Gulf Coast. At the surface, the pressure gradient between high pressure along the East Coast, a low over the Upper Mississippi River Valley, and a low over west Texas is resulting in steady south to southeast winds across South Texas. PWATs this high fall between the 75th and 90th percentile of the KCRP sounding climatology for the end of June. Meanwhile the inverted trough will continue to progress westward and approach the Middle Texas Coast.
The large upper-level ridge over the western Atlantic will try to build across the region, and high temps will be slightly warmer as a result.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): An inverted 500mb trough across the west-central Gulf of Mexico tonight will move westward across the western Gulf of Mexico Sunday. Will mention a slight chance of thunderstorms across deep south Texas on Sunday and a better chance of thunderstorms Sun night as lapse rates steepen across the area with the inverted upper level trough/low moving across the lower Texas coast Sun night. Afternoon temperatures Sunday will a couple of degree cooler compared to today as the increase in cloud cover and rain chances limits diurnal heating somewhat.
344 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 This Evening through Tomorrow: Looking at water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon, an upper- level low pressure system can be seen sliding west across the Gulf of Mexico. Between this feature and an upper-level ridge over the eastern CONUS subsidence aloft and meager mid-level lapse rates are limiting thunder potential in our forecast area.
Ridging continues to expand with temperatures a degree or two warmer than yesterday. With minimal instability and weak mid-level lapse rates, convection is forecast to be limited with only 10 to 20 PoPs across the higher elevations and adjacent areas. VFR conditions expected through the period with ridging across the area resulting in a sct cloud deck around 5-6k ft and predominantly dry weather this afternoon. Predominant winds remain light from the S/SW with high pressure centered to our east. In the upper levels, a ridge remains over the East Coast and Southeast. A trough is over the Central U. At the surface, high pressure will be over the East Coast and Southeast. Dew points will start to get into the mid and upper 60s late this afternoon and evening in the lower elevations of the Tennessee Valley.
A broad area of high pressure anchored off the U. Anticyclonic flow around the broad ridge is leading to SE-SSE winds here at the sfc. Troughing and generally weak mid-lvl vorticity stretching to the NE of this feature will cross the area today and provide some focus for shower/thunderstorm activity, though it is expected to be isolated in coverage. A typical summertime pattern is forecast during the short term period with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and overnight lows in the lower 70s.
Deeper moisture will move into the area from the east tomorrow afternoon and evening in association with a westward moving mid/upper low. Expect max temps to be a little bit cooler as well with more cloud cover across the area Sunday afternoon.
With an elongated upper trough stretched from the upper Mississippi basin to the western High Plains, the region remains well within the moisture rich warm sector. The upper trough remains stalled to the west, still oriented from the Plains to the headwaters of the Mississippi. At the same time, the surface front that passes tonight, will stall along the Ozark Plateau, with guidance suggesting it lifting back north as a warm front towards mid-Missouri by the evening.
/Tonight through Sunday Night/ Upper-level trough across the northern Gulf of Mexico to migrate westward through the short-term period ending Sunday night. Increased instability associated with upper-trough and approaching cold front from the northwest to allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the region on Sunday. Fairly stable conditions expected through the overnight hours with low temperatures forecast to fall into the low to mid 70s.
Temperatures are currently in the lower 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s this morning. Upper level high pressure prevails across the region. Upper level high pressure will strengthen slightly from the east.
0-3km SRH off the KGRR VWP has jumped to 359 m2/s2 as the low level jet has strengthened.
Into the evening and overnight hours, expect showery activity to continue as the low pressure system lifts northeast and drives assent over much of the state. The cold front will pass overnight and during the early morning hours, although an overturned atmosphere ahead of the front will likely keep the frontal passage free of any appreciable precipitation. For the day on Sunday, the low pressure will exit to our northeast and a lack of wiggles aloft will likely keep us dry throughout the day, save for the southeast where some lingering post-frontal omega may bring about some scattered light showers in the afternoon. CMiller (Issued 257 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021) Sunday night through Saturday: The blocking pattern will continue with the trough over the central CONUS with ridges over the eastern and western CONUS.
For the boundaries, dryline located over eastern New Mexico and cold front near a Lubbock to Childress to Enid OK line. Mild lows for tonight and cooler weather for Sunday but still humid in the morning. (Sunday night through next Saturday) Sunday night, a weak cold front will remain stalled just to the north and west of our forecast area.
The Upper Ohio River Valley is under the influence of a rain- suppressing high-amplitude ridge over the ern CONUS with troughing over the Midwest.
The area is between an inverted trough just to our west over the Panhandle and into central Georgia and ridging coming down the Atlantic coast. Convection should die off early this evening as the trough continues to shift to the west and drier air begins to advect into the area from the east. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s.
1252 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 Active weather will continue through the short term as an upper level trough pushes across the central Plains. This trough will support some isolated convection this afternoon and evening. As the trough deepens across the High Plains, forcing will increase leading to convective initiation. Otherwise, clouds and rain will keep temperatures on the cooler side of guidance.
A look at GOES water vapor imagery shows the positively-tilted upper trough continuing its very slow progression northeastward, as it lessens its grip on the local area. Going forward into the early work week, we continue to sit at the base of positively-tilted mid-level troughing.
A weak frontal boundary will remain in the vicinity, with an upper trough just to our west.
Saturday morning, an upper trough will be in place over Southwestern Colorado with an amplifying ridge over the PAC NW. Cooler air filtering into the region will result in below normal temperatures for this time of the year, with highs primarily in the 70s Saturday afternoon. Sunday, the trough remains stuck over the Tri-State area with southwest flow over much of the area. The ridge will shift slightly east over Eastern British Columbia. High temperatures will be a touch warmer in the east, with several areas returning to the low 80s. At the start of the period, a weakening upper trough extends from the Upper Midwest to the High Plains, with a ridge to the west. In addition, an area of high pressure prevails over the east coast.
Wind will be southerly and breezy this afternoon as high pressure sits off to our east.
243 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 The forecast area remains wedged between persistent troughing over the Upper Midwest and a ridge located over the southeast/Mid- Atlantic CONUS. Otherwise, it will be another warm and muggy night, with lows in the lower to middle 70s and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.
satellite imagery shows a longwave upper trough stretching from the Northern Plains, southwest into the Desert Southwest. not anticipating a lot of change to the upper pattern, with the elongated upper trough from the Northern Plains into the Desert Southwest. However, a few thunderstorms could be possible along the I-25 corridor as storms roll southeast off the higher terrain.
though in a weakening state as the low level jet was exiting off to the northeast. Also at mid morning surface temps ranged from the lower 70s behind the surface boundary to the low/mid 80s southeast of the boundary.
High Sunday will range from the lower 70s to lower 80s. The upcoming work week then sees a strong ridge of high pressure build across the western US. This ridge looks to bring warm and dry conditions across the state as it builds north and eastward.
Water vapor imagery and 500 mb height analysis indicate that an inverted mid level trough is progressing westward across the north central Gulf of Mexico late this morning, while a deep layer ridge of high pressure continues to extend from the western Atlantic through the Eastern Seaboard and Appalachian Mountains region. 9 inches over most of our area along the northern and eastern periphery of the trough axis this afternoon.
The pattern will remain blocky through midweek with an elongated upper trough over the upper midwest. While there is no good synoptic trigger to trigger any widespread heavy rains, the downstream side of the trough will keep the chance for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through midweek, with the best chances sliding a little to the east each day as the trough does the same. If it is able to move far enough west precipitation chances would remain through the weekend, but with the strong western ridge slowly advancing eastward it looks like the cutoff low would stay to far east to affect us much. The main change was the lower chances for thunder.
Today-Tonight: Positively tilted mid/upper trough extends across our CWA with eastern axis over our east supporting ongoing showers and possible isolated thunderstorm activity. Near the subsident region of the trough good clearing has supported destabilization ahead of the next mid level impulse rotating through northwest flow on the backside of the midlevel trough over central ND. This lowers confidence in any severe potential, though there may be enough instability for a few stronger updrafts capable of small hail/brief gusty winds. Sunday: A stronger period of positive vorticity advection on the back side of the mid level trough may support better shower and thunderstorm coverage, initially developing upstream over Saskatchewan or northwest ND. The positively tilted trough will remain stagnant over our area, blocked by two high pressure systems to our west and (eventually) east.
The overall pattern of a 500mb ridge west, and trough over the Central and Northern Plains up through Hudson Bay remains.
Overhead a longwave trough has been steadily pushing in while anomalously high moisture (PWATs up to 2 standard deviations above normal) flows over a stalling front.
The forecast area remains under the influence of a stalled trough, stuck between a record setting ridge along the west coast and the sub-tropical ridge to the east. Temperatures tonight will be noticeably cooler than last night, dipping into the upper 50s.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande Valley the rest of the afternoon into this evening as a 500mb ridge across south Texas and an inverted 500mb trough across the central Gulf of Mexico continues to provide subsidence across deep south Texas. Dry and hot conditions will once again occur today as 500 mb high pressure shifts west and away from the BRO CWFA. Tonight, and especially on Sunday, precipitation will reenter the forecast as an inverted 500 mb trough with embedded closed mid-level low approaches from the east as precipitable water simultaneously and gradually increases to around 2 inches.
200 PM MDT Sat Jun 26 2021 WV imagery this aftn depicts a highly amplified ridge over the wrn CONUS, which is contributing to record heat over the Pac NW. Along the periphery of the ridge, several weak waves continue to carve out a broader trof over the cntrl CONUS. This trof and its embedded waves are leading to continued unsettled conditions over our region, with iso/sct showers/storms ongoing across the area this aftn.
High pressure will be in place across the waters through the period.
Higher rain chances are expected on Sunday as lift increases on the east side of an inverted trough axis that is pushing west.
Latest analysis shows a positive tilted trough over the central part of the country with a surface front stretching from the southern plains up to the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile to our east, an upper level high continues to build in from the east. Forecast soundings show plenty of dry air at the low levels and aloft so it will be tough for any convection to develop, but do have pops around 10% this evening to account for the small possibility.
High pressure will continue to dominate with sly flow prevailing through the period. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 89 71 91 70 / 30 30 10 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 89 70 91 69 / 20 30 10 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 69 88 69 91 69 / 10 30 10 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 88 66 89 65 / 20 30 10 30 10.
/EC/ This Evening through Tomorrow: Looking at water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon, an upper- level low pressure system can be seen sliding west across the Gulf of Mexico. Between this feature and an upper-level ridge over the eastern CONUS subsidence aloft and meager mid-level lapse rates are limiting thunder potential in our forecast area.
/issued 250 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): An inverted 500mb trough across the west-central Gulf of Mexico tonight will move westward across the western Gulf of Mexico Sunday. Will mention a slight chance of thunderstorms across deep south Texas on Sunday and a better chance of thunderstorms Sun night as lapse rates steepen across the area with the inverted upper level trough/low moving across the lower Texas coast Sun night. Afternoon temperatures Sunday will a couple of degree cooler compared to today as the increase in cloud cover and rain chances limits diurnal heating somewhat.
Little change in sensible weather is expected across the forecast area as we move into Sunday as the diffuse frontal boundary remains draped over the area keeping the higher pbl moisture along and east of the Kansas Turnpike. Very little change is expected in the large-scale pattern as we move into the early portion of the week with a persistent mid/upper trough remaining nearly stationary across the Central High Plains and a mid/upper ridge helping to funnel deep tropical moisture over the central CONUS. The mid/upper trough may edge slightly closer to the area bringing increasing chances for more widespread precipitation to the region. The mid/upper trough over the Northern Plains is progged to move eastward toward the middle of the week, while plentiful low level moisture remains entrenched across our region.
The primary updates to this forecast involve tweaking the highest POPs according to the above expectations and increasing QPF to the northwest of I-44 through 06Z and near the I-44 corridor and into far northwest Arkansas from 06Z to 12Z. A weak frontal boundary will remain in the vicinity, with an upper trough just to our west.
/EC/ Prior discussion below: Tomorrow: the weather will be similar, except our forecast area will be on the back side of the trough with better moisture in place and possibly better coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
The regional satellite imagery depicts an upper level low south of Louisiana on a westward track. The Florida Keys are in the western periphery of a broad area of high pressure, resulting in moderate to occasionally fresh southeast breezes. However, an upper tropospheric ridge over western Cuba is limiting the vertical development of the convection, resulting is mostly showers.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected along the high terrain this afternoon and into the evening.
844 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 A warm and humid night is in store across central Illinois with low temperatures only dropping into the lower to middle 70s. The subtropical ridge does look to start to break down by the end of the week, allowing the upper trough to finally progress into the eastern CONUS by the weekend. If this occurs, a break from the humidity should result as northwest flow sends cooler and drier air southward.