Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
a bit windy, but otherwise nice featuring mostly clear skies and highs in the low to middle 80s. A warm front in oriented just East of the Mississippi River and will shift off to the Northeast this evening. Dew points behind the front are in the low to middle 60s setting the stage for a round of thunderstorms tomorrow. Afternoon instability ahead of a cold front will approach 1500 J/KG across West TN and the Missouri Bootheel. Northwest Flow will be in place as a ridge strengthens over the Plains.
145 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017 High pressure over the region this morning will move offshore this afternoon.
temperatures remain a bit cooler than expected and have updated the forecast for lower highs. Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 55 78 54 / 10 10 50 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 53 73 48 / 10 30 60 80 Oak Ridge, TN 64 54 73 49 / 10 30 60 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 49 69 45 / 10 50 50 80.
Cold frontal boundary currently moving through southern MN will continue to sink southward and get hung up across Iowa Tuesday.
A short wave along a cold front will continue to track across the Ohio Valley today. as the cold front advances towards the Southern Appalachian Region.
350 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017 Another very warm day across the Panhandles region today as our area is sitting under a ridge of high pressure.
High pressure anchored across the southeast CONUS continues to provide for a pleasant and dry day across South Florida. With high pressure overhead, winds in the interior should decouple tonight, with isolated areas of patchy fog possible. Low temperatures will be chilly across the region again tonight, although a few degrees warmer than last night but still generally in the 50s for most areas, except low 60s in the east coast metro. High pressure will continue to dominate through the short term period as the flow becomes light with the center of the high overhead.
137 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017 Pacific high pressure will continue to build into Western and North Central Nebraska today. This will be quite necessary given the dry air at the lower levels. The snow accumulation process will have to overcome ground temperatures in the lower 40s which suggests no significant travel hazard other than accumulations of slush on the roads.
No major air mass change has occurred, so temperatures will still be much warmer than average. Tuesday will be a very challenging high temperature forecast due to the low clouds impact on highs.
Issued by National Weather Service Topeka KS 358 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017 Latest surface analysis had the cold front south of the forecast area, extending from central Illinois to south central Kansas at 19Z. Models show an area of frontogenetic forcing developing north of of the Highway 36 corridor northward into Iowa. Lows tonight will range from near 40 along the Iowa border to the lower 50s south. Highs on Tuesday will be cooler than today with readings in the 50s amid clouds and northeast winds.
Winds will pick up around 10 to 15kts after 15Z with a cold front and be out of the northeast. /Issued 400 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017/ An upper ridge will prevail across the Panhandles today through Tuesday before the upper ridge shifts off to the east of the forecast area by mid week.
245 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017 Current visible satellite imagery is showing cumulus developing in the higher elevations from the Guadalupe to the Davis Mountains this afternoon.
306 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017 High pressure over the region this morning will move offshore this afternoon.
Temperatures will remain warm through the period as ridging is maintained aloft. Moisture will be limited despite the persistent onshore flow but noticeable in the lower levels with morning clouds that will lift and erode through the day with heating.
340 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017 High pressure will prevail across the area tonight into Tuesday.
A short break in precipitation is expected for Tuesday afternoon into most of Tuesday night before low to mid-level WAA increases ahead of a strong trough progged to move into the Great Basin later this week.
333 PM MDT Mon Mar 20 2017 Rain and snow showers over the central and southwestern Montana counties will diminish tonight through early Tuesday morning as upper ridging builds overhead and the mid-level frontal energy splits apart.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. WITH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
TRACKING THE UPPER LOW THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL KANSAS AND REALLY LIMITING ANY PRECIP THREAT TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WITH ECMWF THE FARTHEST NORTH SOLUTION WITH THE UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
215 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016 WV imagery shows an upper trough digging over the Four Corners region this afternoon. Moisture has begun to surge back west across the area in response to height falls associated with the upper trough. The best chance for storms comes later tonight as the dryline retreats west and large scale lift arrives with the upper trough.
S/WV ridge will move NE of the area with mid level energy moving NE from the southern Plains toward the area Friday.
/ISSUED 1102 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/ REALLY WARM START TO THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. AND THAT IS THE FOCUS FOR THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES TODAY.
/ISSUED 1036 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES OVER MOST OF THE CWA WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S. CURRENT UPPER LEVEL IN IOWA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE FILLING AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OZARKS.
1220 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016 UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO TREK EAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AS UPPER LOW WORKS TO THE EAST. COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE. OUR NEXT WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LOW BEGINS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER AS EARLY AS FRIDAY IT APPEARS. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE IN GOOD TYING IT WITH A SECONDARY UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THEREFORE BASICALLY A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS CARVED OUT OVER THE ENTIRE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WHERE WE ADDED A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO THE HIGHS BECAUSE OF DRIER AIR.
UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY INTO SOUTHWEST COLORADO BY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS THE 500- 300 MB AND 700-500 MB QG FORCING OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY INTO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
At the surface, an occluded front extends southeast from this storm center to a triple point in southwest IL, where a cold front extends further south from there and a warm front extends east from the triple point. Temperatures were in the 60s ahead of the cold front in southern IL, and have fallen into the 50s elsewhere. The surface triple point is expected to move out of the forecast area into east-central IL by 12z this morning, taking the other fronts out of the forecast area as well, leaving westerly flow in its wake, and a surface TROF just to our north in southern IA and central IL.
222 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016 THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE WEAK COLD FRONT HAD MOVED THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. TEMPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WERE IN THE LOW-MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS WERE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND INTO THE UPPER 70S. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO S OK TOMORROW MORNING. AREAS S OF THE WARM FRONT. THINK HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO GOOD HEATING IN A DRY AIRMASS. THOUGH THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY WILL STAY OVER THE PANHANDLES. THE MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL BE INTO THE SOUTHWEST ZONES AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING CYCLONE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. AND ALSO ACROSS NORTH TEXAS NEAR THE WARM FRONT. WHERE WILL THE WARM FRONT BE LOCATED.
PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WERE ROTATING NWWD FROM THE LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH FINALLY PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES EAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THEN WARMER AS WINDS SHIFT TO BECOME OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
RIDGE AXIS CLOSER TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE HAS PRODUCED A S/SW FLOW THAT HAS LED TO SLOWER DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THIS AFT. MOS POPS INDICATE COVERAGE WILL STILL BE ON THE LOWER END WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FORECAST. 6 INCHES WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH. AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH FRI AS A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL WASH OUT BY SAT BUT HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING BEHIND IT WILL INDUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SUN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SETTLING CLOSER TO THE WATERS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE OVER THE WATERS MON-TUE AND PRODUCE ABOUT A 10 KNOT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WIND.
CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AXIS AND THIS IS AN AREA WHICH IS HINTED AT FOR INITIATION BY MANY OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NWP SOLUTIONS. THE THETA-E RIDGE HAS BECOME A BIT MORE N/S ORIENTED AND WHILE THE ORIENTATION OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS NOT NEARLY AS NORMAL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS GIVEN PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT RELIEVING THE AREA OF DRY CONDITIONS WEST OF THE DRYLINE. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO THIS WEEKEND.
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE 800MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF COMBINED WITH A GRAVITY WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS TO THE AREA. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS WESTERN IOWA THIS MORNING WILL BE DAMPENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WHILE NEXT SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO KICK NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
At 12z Thursday on upper level low was located over western Iowa while another upper level low was centered over west central Arizona. At the surface earlier this morning an area of low pressure was located over eastern New Mexico with a surface boundary extending east southeast across the Panhandle of Texas.
This afternoon's showers/tstms will quickly move east early this evening, with weak high pressure bringing us dry weather tonight through Friday evening. Friday night low pressure entering the Ozarks will set up a warm front reaching east into Kentucky while a low level jet revs up over the lower Mississippi Valley.
A BAND OF MID CLOUD WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED SHOWERS THAT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS THEN CENTRAL CO AND UT EARLY THIS MORNING. FRIDAY NIGHT THE LOW CENTER WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND NORTHWESTERLY OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS DOMINATING PRECIPITATIONPRODUCTION AND LOCATION. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME CAUGHT BENEATH A COL BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS DAYS' LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE PLAINS AND A CLOSE LOW THAT DROPS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN FROM THE NORTH.
402 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS EAST OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS MORNING'S SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA. THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING MOHAVE COUNTY, BUT SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE LOW CENTER - PRIMARILY ACROSS COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
Clouds currently across northern Missouri and central Illinois will slowly move south through the night as the low moves to the east. Lows tonight will be slightly cooler than MOS guidance, particularly where clouds have kept temperatures down today.
304 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016 A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT WHICH MAY LIFT AS FAR NORTH AS I-40 OR SLIGHT FURTHER NORTH IN OKLAHOMA. THE HIGH STORM CHANCES WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHEAR EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED THUNDER FOR MAINLY WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE UPPER TROUGH/MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET.
LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER IA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN AND SNOW HAVING MOVED WEST INTO CENTRAL SD. BUT WATCHING THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AND MOVING WEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN.
FORECAST - THE RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL LOOSEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE PRESSURES FALL IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM TO NONE AS WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK RIDGE BACKING OFF TO OUR NORTH AS IT IS REINFORCED BY A CONTINENTAL HIGH.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT. THEN BEGIN WEAKENING AND MIGRATING E AS A TROUGH/LOW COMPLEX DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL U. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS SHOWN ON LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS MOVING INTO THE SE STATES AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA ON FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH/LOW COMPLEX DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE TROUGH/LOW COMPLEX OVER THE CENTRAL U.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES LATE FRIDAY.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ROUGHLY LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTH RIM OF THE GRAND CANYON. THE LOWEST REPORT OF SNOW OCCURED AT THE SOUTH RIM OF THE GRAND CANYON AT ABOUT 6600 FEET. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT, EXITING NORTHERN ARIZONA FRIDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT OF THE LOW TRACK AND DECREASING INSTABILITY, SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY, WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ONLY OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
154 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
THE LARGE UPRIGHT UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS CLOSED LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA IS STILL FORECAST TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE 4- CORNERS REGION OVERNIGHT WITH THE 500MB SITTING OVER SWRN COLORADO BY 12Z/FRIDAY ACCORDING TO A MODEL CONSENSUS.
317 PM PDT THU APR 28 2016 CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
110 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 LOW PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTH OF THE OHIO BORDER DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BROAD BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS MOST CONCENTRATED OVER MBS. VFR WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY EVEN AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES IN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS BY MID MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH NORTHEAST WINDS KEEPING COOLER AIR LOCKED IN. A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO FAR NWRN KS WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW CENTER.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT IN NORTH TEXAS WILL COMBINE WITH SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
610 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TODAY INTO TOMORROW.
AS SW FLOW ALOFT OVERTAKES THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NRN AZ. WARM FRONT CURRENTLY JUST TO THE S OF OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE PUSHING NWD TONIGHT AND BEGIN INTERACTING WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SET UP SOMEWHERE IN THE I-30 CORRIDOR. AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW ACRS SRN MN WILL TRANSLATE ACRS SRN WI TNGT WITH MORE SHRA CHCS.
Temperatures this week will be in the 60s and lower 70s, which are a bit warmer than average.
The front situated across TX will begin to lift north later today as a warm front. This will bring the higher dewpoints farther north as well. A strengthening low-level jet along with improving isentropic lift will result in convection along and north of the warm front. The degree of northward progression of the warm front remains in question on Friday. and this activity will eventually spread across the forecast area Friday evening/night as the surface cyclone lifts into northwest OK and the dryline/Pacific front surges east. although this could change if the warm front lifts farther north thus resulting in a larger warm sector across parts of the forecast area.
However, we will be cooler as we move forward through the next few days and the potential for thunderstorms will return for Friday and the weekend.
LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH A DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL IDAHO IN THE DIRECTION OF STANLEY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN SOUTHERN UTAH APPEAR TO BE ROTATING A LITTLE SHORT OF IDAHO.
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT CLOSED LOW ACROSS MN/IA BORDER CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TODAY. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE KEPT IN COOLER AIR ACROSS THE CWA. WITH SOME OF THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NW SD WHERE SNOW COVER CONTINUES THOUGH MELTING. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO END ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THEN EXT UPPER LOW NOW SITTING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE INTO COLORADO FRIDAY WITH WRAPAROUND PRECIP MOVING INTO ERN CO TO THE NEB PNHNDLE. COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE HILLS WILL BE BETTER FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE PERIOD.
231 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016 (Tonight and Tomorrow) Synoptically, an upper level low is centered over the four corners area this afternoon with a Pacific front bisecting New Mexico as it moves to the east.
WITH LOW EXITING MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE FA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR SKC TONIGHT OVER THE NORTH THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP AROUND FREEZING. WITH A BIT MORE UNFILTERED SOLAR EXPECTED FRIDAY TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
303 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THIS TIME.
SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA IN RESPONSE TO A STUBBORN UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN STATIONARY OVER THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER TODAY. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND EAST PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WHERE LIVINGSTON AND BAKER ARE IN THE LOWER 40S WITH AREAS IN BETWEEN ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. MODELS KEEP THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SATURATED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
330 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE IA/MN BORDER WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER CANADA WILL AID IN BLOCKING MOISTURE FROM EXTENDING TO THE NORTH.
603 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS EAST OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST.
125 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TODAY INTO TOMORROW.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS WEAKENING CLOSED LOW ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. WEAK RIDGING IS LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WITH ANOTHER CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED IN WESTERN IOWA WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW/SHEAR ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST. UPPER LOW AND RESIDUAL SHEAR ZONE WILL FURTHER WEAKEN. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER LOW CROSSING THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID DAY FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.
320 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS AND CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE AN MID-LEVEL LOW ALONG THE MN-IA BORDER AND AN UPSTREAM CYCLONE OVER THE LOWER CO VALLEY. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL BUILD THROUGH THE N-CNTRL U. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL WIND MAXIMA FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO ERN NE/KS AND WRN MO.
146 PM PDT THU APR 28 2016 LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PRODUCE LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
256 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN IOWA EMBEDDED IN A TROUGH ACROSS THE CORN BELT. THE CLOSED LOW HEADS INTO SOUTHERN MN BY THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVES INTO LOWER MI BY FRI MORNING AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY FRI AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES INTO THE HALF INCH (WEST) TO NEAR ONE INCH (EAST) RANGE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA FROM SOUTHERN UTAH. PLENTY OF LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO. PRECIPITATION WATER VALUES REMAIN IN THE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH RANGE AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERN WI HAS REMAINED DRY SO FAR DUE TO ITS CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A VERY DRY HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE OF WISCONSIN TONIGHT. CHANCES OF PRECIP LOOK TO END LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. DESPITE THE UPPER LOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION TO THE EAST.
THE NICE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE DESPITE THE APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED THROUGH MS. DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION AND DECREASES CLOUD COVER ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER 80S. JMS A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING NW AL AND WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
Will see considerable height rises with upper level ridging building into the area in advance of the southwest upper low. There should be plenty of sunshine today, with a cooler airmass, especially in the northern CWA. High pressure will continue to build in at the surface tonight with a return flow beginning to set up around 850 mb. As the upper low shifts into the Plains on Friday night, good diffluent flow sets up over the area with low level jet impinging on the area as well.