Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
222 AM MDT Sun Sep 12 2021 The latest water vapor images and 500-mb analysis shows wavy zonal flow across the northern CONUS, with a flat high pressure over the southern CONUS. Q-G forcing with this wave is fairly weak, which is consistent with the wave moving through a long-wave ridge.
An expanding upper level ridge will keep conditions dry and quite warm for mid September, with highs getting into the upper 80s to around 90. The main issues center around how far south the progressive flow pattern will extend from across the northern 1/2 of the nation, as well as what an upper low does that comes onshore across the Gulf Coast states.
(Today through Monday afternoon) No significant changes to the short term as the upper level ridge has flattened out, leaving us in zonal flow.
After a fantastic streak of days in the low to mid 80s, it looks like that trend is finally going to come to an end today and tomorrow as an upper level ridge builds into the region.
Meanwhile, an upper high was centered to our W. In a nutshell, Sun looks to be another dry day with high temps close to todays readings, ranging fm the mid 80s to the lower 90s.
Upper level high pressure over the Southern Plains shifts east to over the Tennessee river Valley, with an upper trough over the Southeast shifting south to over the Northern Gulf of Mexico into Sunday. An upper low over the Bay of Campeche moves north along the Mexican/Texan Gulf coast Sunday into Monday night with some organization possible (Nicholas?) as the Southeast upper ridge builds south over the Gulf of Mexico. High temperatures in upper 80s to low 90s Sunday will see some cooling over western portions of the forecast area Monday due to the higher rain coverage.
An upper level ridge centered near northeastern New Mexico will move very little, and remain the main influence on our weather for tonight into Sunday. Tonight's lows should be similar to the last couple nights, dropping into the low to mid 60s, with a few upper 50s possible in our valley areas.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 65 89 67 87 / 0 0 10 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 65 89 67 89 / 0 0 10 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 86 63 88 66 87 / 0 0 10 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 62 88 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 10.
As of 2pm, a cold front is evident on surface analysis just edging into northwestern portions of the forecast area. With relatively dry air in the low to mid-levels, I expect this activity to be pretty-high based and many locations will not receive anything measurable. The cold front will push through most of the area by Sunday morning, but confidence is increasing that it will stall out in our northern Kansas.
1115 PM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021 High pressure will bring sunny and dry weather over the weekend.
High temperatures are expected to be a few degrees cooler than yesterday, especially across western parts of the forecast area with a less intense lower level thermal ridge forecast. Like yesterday, the stronger winds will be seen over the higher terrain of western Oklahoma.
Highs today will range form the low to mid 60s around the Turtle Mountains, to near 80 far southwest. Tonight, a deepening upper trough to our north and a strong jet tracking across the central Rockies and into the central Plains will induce cyclogenesis over the northern and central Plains and produce sufficient forcing to moisten an initially dry atmospheric column over North Dakota, resulting in rain showers developing after midnight late Sunday night, into early Monday morning.
Seasonable temperatures and breezy afternoon winds will continue into Monday under a weak trough of low pressure.
As expected, convection has broken out across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado in association with a weak cold front. Another weak trough might just clip our WY/CO border late Sunday night into Monday morning.
Otw, upper high will be building across the mid state during the taf period. At the surface, high pressure is also in control but will slowly move east of the area.
316 AM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 The surface map has a high pressure along the Carolina's coastline with a ridge axis west through north AL into TX. Temperatures and dew points were a bit warmer this morning, and will provide a head start to another warm and dry day. As the upper ridge shifts east tonight into Monday, low to mid level flow will become more southerly allowing moisture to increase.
132 AM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 High pressure will bring sunny and dry weather, with a gradual warmup and building humidity in the upcoming week.
355 AM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 High pressure will remain anchored offshore through much of the week.
236 AM MDT Sun Sep 12 2021 Very brief upper ridging taking place through most of today, bringing about clear skies for us and keeping temperatures at to every so slightly above normal. Cooler temperatures and some rain showers will move in behind the front, but little precipitation accumulation expected. Expect light winds the next two days, and pleasant temperatures in the low to mid 70s for Monday.
254 AM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 High pressure will continue to bring dry weather with warmer temperatures through early this week. A pressure gradient between the aforementioned high pressure and low pressure moving north of the area should allow for some gusty winds within the CWA starting this morning. With continued southerly flow, temperatures are expected to warm above normal during the day with highs in the mid 80s to around 90 in the lowlands and 70s to low 80s in the mountains. Tonight's low temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s in the lowlands and low 60s in the mountains. A high pressure system will remain over the area for Monday and Monday night. A southerly wind flow will allow moisture to increase as the high pressure system slides off to the east.
The upper level ridge which has brought above normal temperatures to the area the past few days will continue to remain the dominant feature over the area today as it slides east. The upper ridge coupled with modest WAA will allow highs to rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s despite insolation from smoke aloft.
128 AM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 High pressure and drier air will spread across the region through the weekend with dry and seasonable temperatures expected through the weekend. High pressure will remain dominant over the region overnight as it slides to the coast. Radiational cooling conditions have been good again tonight however with dewpoints a couple degrees warmer than yesterday expect overnight lows to be slightly warmer with upper 50s to low 60s Upper ridging will strengthen over the area with temperatures climbing with highs once again in the upper 80s to low 90s. Similar conditions expected Monday as upper ridging remains over the area with highs in the low 90s and PWATs still only around an inch.
(Today and tonight) Our area will remain under the influence of broad ridging aloft today and tonight.
333 AM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 Key Messages: 1)Increased heights aloft and high pressure at the surface will continue to bring dry weather and warming temperatures for today. Discussion: Mid and upper level ridging is expanding across the region this morning as troughing continues to lift into the western Atlantic. High pressure has settled across the Mid-Atlantic and into the southeast. The combination of increasing heights and high pressure anchored across the region will bring dry conditions and warmer temperatures today and overnight tonight. The center of a mid level ridge will remain overhead the area tonight continuing to favor mostly clear skies and moderating temperatures with lows in the lower to mid 60's.
The high pressure ridge builds more toward the northeast Monday, as an inverted trough develops along the Atlantic coast. Models diverge as to the location, and strength of this troughing.
Afternoon temperatures today will be near 100 along and south of the front from Dodge City south and eastward and several degrees cooler north of the front in Garden City, Syracuse and Scott City. The frontal boundary will be in a similar position Monday with hot air to the south and slightly cooler and more humid air to the north.
The high level smoke from the western US and Canadian fires will inhibit full solar insolation so high temperatures may be a couple of degrees cooler than model guidance. GKS The warm weather pattern will continue on Monday as the weak front near the MO and IA border lifts back northward as a warm front and south-southwest winds persist over our area.
253 AM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 High pressure will bring sunny and dry weather, with a gradual warmup and building humidity in the upcoming week.
350 AM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 High pressure will prevail through the middle of the week. Today: Aloft, ridging will strengthen across the region as the center of the anti-cyclone shifts eastward across the Tennessee Valley towards the southern Appalachians. At the surface, high pressure will be centered to the east over the Atlantic, extending westward into the Southeast coast. The combination of the ridge aloft and deep dry air (precipitable water values less than an inch) will result in a dry forecast for the forecast area.
1051 PM MDT Sat Sep 11 2021 Water vapor shows upper low along the MT/Canadian border with decent moisture plume extending into the low from the Desert SW. Instability remains fairly limited this afternoon, but with continued heating there may be a few storms that develop closer to the cold front from northeast WY into southwest SD.
411 AM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 A frontal boundary will continue sagging southward as a wave of low pressure moves off to the east this morning. It will be notably cooler today with the frontal boundary to our south. Highs will range from the low/mid 70s around the Niobrara river to the middle 80s near Imperial.
High clouds increased in Baker County and northern Harney County ahead of an approaching weak cold front. Clearing and cooler in all areas tonight then sunny with normal temperatures Monday.
/Issued 404 AM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021/ Quiet weather continues today through tomorrow as an upper level ridge remains in place over much of the southern CONUS.
Pleasant late summer weather will continue across eastern KY today and Monday as high pressure off the coast and another weaker area of high pressure over the southern Appalachians remains in control. To our north, there is a frontal boundary that stretches from Nebraska to the northern OH valley and over to the northeast, with several areas of low pressure along the front. The flattening ridge covering much of the southern US will help keep this boundary well north of our area through Monday. Remaining mostly clear overnight with low temps in the low to mid 60s. Initially, we will see a large ridge of high pressure parked over the southeastern CONUS.
The surface map has a high pressure along the Carolina's coastline with a ridge axis west through north AL into TX. Temperatures and dew points were a bit warmer this morning, and will provide a head start to another warm and dry day. As the upper ridge shifts east tonight into Monday, low to mid level flow will become more southerly allowing moisture to increase.
and Monday The cold front that came through mostly dry yesterday has moved to near the Illinois border as of 09z. With an easterly wind component, high temperatures will be slightly cooler near the lake, despite the still mild water temperatures.
633 AM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 High pressure will continue to bring dry weather with warmer temperatures through early this week. A pressure gradient between the aforementioned high pressure and low pressure moving north of the area should allow for some gusty winds within the CWA starting this morning. With continued southerly flow, temperatures are expected to warm above normal during the day with highs in the mid 80s to around 90 in the lowlands and 70s to low 80s in the mountains. Tonight's low temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s in the lowlands and low 60s in the mountains. A high pressure system will remain over the area for Monday and Monday night. A southerly wind flow will allow moisture to increase as the high pressure system slides off to the east.
Model agreement sees zonal flow begin to die out Monday night as a new trough and its associated week cold front begin to pass through northern and central Nevada.
This convection looks to be much less widespread than yesterday, favoring the higher terrain and less so the valleys and should be over shortly after sunset. On Monday, some energy will round the base of a low amplitude trough and bring some precip to Wyoming.
Early this morning an upper level ridge axis extended northeast from southern NM into southern KS and southern MO. An upper level trough was moving east across the northern Plains. At the surface a weak cold front extned from northern IA, southwest across south central NE into northwest KS. There continues to be pockets of high altitude smoke trapped under the upper ridge axis. Today through Monday night, a series of low amplitude H5 troughs will lift east-northeast across the northern and central Plains. A more amplified upper trough will move east into the western US Monday night. As the upper ridge dampens a bit on Monday, highs will be a few degrees cooler.
More widespread rain is likely with a mid- week upper trough passage. Broad ridging over the southern CONUS will continue today, with the Upper Ohio River Valley sitting within the warm sector of a low positioned over the western Great Lakes.
649 AM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 (Today and tonight) Our area will remain under the influence of broad ridging aloft today and tonight.
Key Messages: 1)Increased heights aloft and high pressure at the surface will continue to bring dry weather and warming temperatures for today. Discussion: Mid and upper level ridging is expanding across the region this morning as troughing continues to lift into the western Atlantic. High pressure has settled across the Mid-Atlantic and into the southeast. The combination of increasing heights and high pressure anchored across the region will bring dry conditions and warmer temperatures today and overnight tonight. The center of a mid level ridge will remain overhead the area tonight continuing to favor mostly clear skies and moderating temperatures with lows in the lower to mid 60's.
The high chance of precipitation and associated significant cloud cover will result in near to below normal temperatures for this time of year.
622 AM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 A frontal boundary will continue sagging southward as a wave of low pressure moves off to the east this morning. It will be notably cooler today with the frontal boundary to our south. Highs will range from the low/mid 70s around the Niobrara river to the middle 80s near Imperial. By Monday a flat trof will pass by to our north with accompanied by a deamplifying upper level jet streak while the lingering frontal boundary remains draped across the area at the surface.
524 AM MDT Sun Sep 12 2021 The latest water vapor images and 500-mb analysis shows wavy zonal flow across the northern CONUS, with a flat high pressure over the southern CONUS. Q-G forcing with this wave is fairly weak, which is consistent with the wave moving through a long-wave ridge.
1001 AM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 High pressure will prevail through the middle of the week. Today: Aloft, ridging will strengthen across the region as the center of the anti-cyclone shifts eastward across the Tennessee Valley towards the southern Appalachians. At the surface, high pressure will be centered to the east over the Atlantic, extending westward into the Southeast coast. The combination of the ridge aloft and deep dry air (precipitable water values less than an inch) will result in a dry forecast for the forecast area.
448 AM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 A frontal boundary will continue sagging southward as a wave of low pressure moves off to the east this morning. It will be notably cooler today with the frontal boundary to our south. Highs will range from the low/mid 70s around the Niobrara river to the middle 80s near Imperial. By Monday a flat trof will pass by to our north with accompanied by a deamplifying upper level jet streak while the lingering frontal boundary remains draped across the area at the surface.
508 AM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 High pressure and drier air will continue to keep calm weather locked in across the region through the remainder of the weekend and early in the week. Little change in the sensible weather for Sunday with surface ridging still in control. Another good radiational cooling night is again producing morning low temps in the low 60s and upper 50s. With the slow increase in moisture, overnight temps heading into Monday will be a few degrees warmer than the past few nights, in the low-mid 60s.
Late tonight through Monday night, another, low pressure trough from Canadian Rockies will sweep over the region.
539 AM MDT Sun Sep 12 2021 Latest radar shows scattered line of showers from Pine Bluffs, WY northeastward towards Bridgeport, NE this morning as frontal boundary begins to stall over the region. Cooler temperatures today from our previous 90s with many in the upper 70s and low 80s.
951 AM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 High pressure will bring sunny and dry weather, with a gradual warmup and building humidity in the upcoming week.
/issued 231 AM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021/ Upper level ridging has flattened considerably over the past few days, with the main ridge axis now effectively spreading across the entire southern CONUS. The upper pattern will not change much during the short term, with an active northern wave train keeping flat upper ridging overhead through tonight.
431 AM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 A frontal boundary will continue sagging southward as a wave of low pressure moves off to the east this morning. It will be notably cooler today with the frontal boundary to our south. Highs will range from the low/mid 70s around the Niobrara river to the middle 80s near Imperial.
High pressure across the Desert Southwest will bring near record high temperatures to portions of southeast Arizona today and tomorrow, especially across the lower deserts. As the ridge breaks down we'll see a weak zonal westerly flow with temperatures slowly sagging a few degrees as heights and thicknesses fall.
616 AM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 The strong mid and upper level ridging along with high 850mb temperatures will hang around for another day.
628 AM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 High pressure and drier air will continue to keep calm weather locked in across the region through the remainder of the weekend and early in the week. Little change in the sensible weather for Sunday with surface ridging still in control. Another good radiational cooling night is again producing morning low temps in the low 60s and upper 50s. With the slow increase in moisture, overnight temps heading into Monday will be a few degrees warmer than the past few nights, in the low-mid 60s.
742 AM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 High pressure will prevail through the middle of the week. Today: Aloft, ridging will strengthen across the region as the center of the anti-cyclone shifts eastward across the Tennessee Valley towards the southern Appalachians. At the surface, high pressure will be centered to the east over the Atlantic, extending westward into the Southeast coast. The combination of the ridge aloft and deep dry air (precipitable water values less than an inch) will result in a dry forecast for the forecast area.
More widespread rain is likely with a mid- week cold front. Broad high pressure over the central CONUS will maintain dry weather for most of the Upr OH Valley Region today. The caveat will be over the I 80 corridor where isolated to scattered showers and storms remain a possibility during the late afternoon to evening hours due to the encroachment of a cold front from digging low pressure over Quebec.
Today Through Monday Night A dominant area of high pressure remains anchored the SE CONUS on Sunday.
An upper level high was moving into the Ohio Valley early this morning. During the day today, the upper high will continue across the Ohio Valley. The upper high and warm mid levels will keep the area dry. Quiet weather will continue tonight with the upper high in place. The upper high will get pushed south and east on Monday, but it will still be close enough to keep the area dry and warm. But once beyond Fri, there is some indications of a returning ridge and dry stretch for the Ohio Valley for mid-Sept.
A strong, sharp ridge will continue to build across the Atlantic, with the axis penetrating the southeastern United States. The ridge will then weaken and retrograde eastward into the Atlantic. This high daily rainfall value was attributed to Tropical Storm Sally passing by to the north of the Keys earlier in the day and then Cuban thunderstorm outflow surging northward across the Straits of Florida that evening. During the late evening hours a thunderstorm over the Lower Keys produced 3.
An east/west frontal boundary south of the area, along with a broad trough, upper level jet is producing light showers and a thunderstorms, mainly along and south of Highway 14. Weak ridging develops later this evening over the western Dakota with some WAA as well. On Monday, an area of low pressure and associated warm front will track across the region, bringing widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms. The convection associated with the warm front could push into western MN during the mid afternoon hours, with perhaps a few hours of heating possibly over the western CWA. If this happens, then the cold front may have enough instability and shear to produce a few strong storms. As of now, most models suggest mostly showers, and a few weak thunderstorms with the cold front.
244 PM MDT Sun Sep 12 2021 Scattered convection across the higher terrain will be winding down this evening with most areas shutting down for the night. Monday is setting up to see another round of isolated convection along the ridges that will again dissipate into the evening hours as they move off and over the valleys.
A Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Watch have been issued for the lower Texas coast. The high chance of precipitation and associated significant cloud cover will result in near to below normal temperatures for this time of year.
It will remain warm with upper 80s to around 90 for much of the region, a bit cooler in southern Lower Michigan with lower to middle 80s expected.
(This afternoon through Monday night) A rather benign short term is on tap, as upper-level ridging persists. Decreased thicknesses today will yield highs a few degrees cooler than yesterday's, and a degree or so cooler Monday than today. An increase in low-level moisture Monday night should keep mins a few degrees warmer than tonight's. Rain chances look slim-to-none under the ridge, and bone-dry CAMs agree.
/Issued 1027 AM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021/ Surface dewpoints have increased a few degrees since this time yesterday, with afternoon high temperatures likely to run a little cooler than those observed yesterday. Upper ridging will continue to lose influence over the next few days as the pattern flattens.
246 PM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 High pressure continues to dominate our weather through at least midweek.
Rainfall amounts through tomorrow night should remain mostly below an inch for our area with the higher totals in the southeastern CWA. Highs tomorrow will range from the middle 80s to middle 90s with lows tonight and tomorrow night mostly in the lower 70s.
By the middle of the week, temperatures could cool a bit from troughs passing to the north.
Widespread rain showers are likely with a mid-week upper trough passage. Convection will continue to stay to our north, given the placement of the sfc boundary and ridging to our south.
Cooler lows ranging from the low 40s north to mid 50s south. Highs will be mainly in the low 70s. Monday Night Through Sunday A warm front will lift north Monday night, as low pressure moves into north central WI and the Upper Peninsula.
A low pressure system will bring cooling for the latter part of the week, with temperatures dropping to a few degrees below normal.