Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A strong midsummer cold front will move across the Midsouth overnight. Most of the Midsouth will warm into the low to middle 80s. A cold front extends from southwest Missouri across western Arkansas and into northeast Texas. Thunderstorms have developed ahead of the cold front across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. The cold front will move east across the Mississippi River this evening with more thunderstorms expected to move through the region tonight. Temperatures will be a little cooler than the last few days with lows Saturday morning in the lower 70s. The cold front will continue moving slowly east on Saturday and will finally move out of the Mid-South by late afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler on Saturday with the clouds and front with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
558 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020 Some SHRA will remain possible this evening at many sites as a cold front drops SE through the area.
516 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2020 Expanded the heat advisory as we are seeing temperatures near Logan in the low 100s.
Lows will fall to the low/mid 70s. Slow moving upper trough to the west will only make slow progress towards the area on Saturday, with an associated front/trough moving into NW Alabama and Mississippi.
/issued 351 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020/ A short wave is moving out of the Plains and int the Mid- Mississippi Valley with the trough axis trailing down into central Texas.
843 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020 Rain chances will persist through the weekend as low pressure traverses a slow-moving front. Otherwise, a A slightly drier air mass and transient mid-level ridging should keep the overnight period dry.
Quiet weather is expected for the rest of the evening as high pressure begins to build in. Once convection diminished over the southern James River Valley this evening, the remainder of the night, and Saturday looks to be dry, and cooler.
Cooler conditions continue through the weekend, with near seasonable temperatures expected.
At mid evening the area of low pressure continued to slowly shift toward the east with the backside of the low and upper level trof axis remaining over part of Northwest Arkansas. the low ceilings and a few areas of light rain/drizzle remained over parts of Northwest Arkansas. the trof axis looks to slide east of the CWA with the remaining light precip exiting off to the east and northeast. winds becoming light combined with cloud cover possibly eroding long enough could allow for some patchy fog development across parts of far Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas late tonight as temps look to fall into the lower 60s.
640 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020 The upper level low currently centered over Missouri will move slowly eastward tonight. There seems to be two lobes of vorticity within the low based on satellite pics, that are pivoting around each other. Scattered showers continue to be possible across parts of southeast Missouri and south central Illinois though as the upper level trof axis shifts east. Another short wave will be diving into the trough on Saturday night which could bring more showers to parts of central and northeast Missouri late Saturday night.
An upper level low pressure center will continue to drift to the east out of the area this evening. MVFR and brief IFR conditions are expected across northwest AR TAF sites this evening close to the center of the low and in these showers. /Issued 149 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020/ Afternoon water vapor imagery detects a well-defined upper cyclone across southwest MO, with our forecast area under deep-layered cyclonic flow. Cooler/drier airmass will keep temperatures a good 5-10 degrees below seasonal norms through the weekend.
Clouds and moisture will increase ahead of a warm front lifting into SW PA to start the first weekend in August.
NorCal remains in the same pattern that has persisted over much of the past month with the area in southwest flow between upper high over the Desert Southwest and trough along the Pacific Northwest.
633 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020 A slow-moving cold front currently in North Dakota is heading southeast towards the Northland.
/issued 300 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): 500mb trough across the east-central United States will bring a weak cold front into south Texas tonight.
Slightly warmer and drier conditions will continue across the inland areas through the weekend, as high pressure expands from the Desert Southwest. Low pressure off the West Coast will keep near coastal areas seasonable, with persistent overnight marine layer intrusions through the period. Water vapor imagery continues to show our region nestled between a strong ridge of high pressure over the Desert Southwest and a trough of low pressure off the West Coast. The only difference may be with slightly warmer and drier conditions possible across the inland areas, as the Desert Southwest ridge tries to nudge into the region.
There could be some light fog in the low lying areas with more widespread fog in the Wisconsin River Valley. Could see light fog, mainly in the low lying sysceptible areas. Cut-off low pressure over Missouri should get nudged slowly east- northeast tonight and Saturday by an approaching upstream short wave trof, moving southeast from southern Canada. Onshore winds will likely continue on Saturday keeping areas closer to Lake Michigan a bit cooler than inland areas. Lakeshore soundings continue to look too dry for any -shra to develop despite the delta-T around 9-10 degrees as Lake Michigan water temps are currently in the low 70s.
Upper high over the southwestern states Saturday and Saturday night will continue to provide a north northwesterly or northwesterly upper flow across the forecast area.
702 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020 Rain chances will be increasing late Saturday as deepening low pressure over the lower Ohio valley lifts into the southern Great Lakes.
Strong high pressure aloft through the weekend will provide very hot daytime temperatures, with record or near record highs through Saturday. This translates to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along the International border and areas mainly east and northeast of Tucson, particularly the higher terrain. A high pressure ridge will also dominate the southwestern CONUS so expect very hot temperatures to continue through the weekend as well.
Stronger storms were seen near the Highline associated with a disturbance in the NW flow. E flow in the low-levels will keep thunderstorms confined to the high terrain Saturday afternoon. Arthur Thunderstorms associated with a weak wave moving down the east side of a building ridge have generally pushed east of the area. In general, given the higher bases of anything that forms, winds will be the main hazard, but there could be some hail. Going into Saturday this will start to dry out as the ridge dominates the weather over the Northern Rockies. There will be some moisture under the ridge, so could see some isolated showers and thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, but this will mostly be over the high country.
/NEW/ /Through Saturday Night/ The cold front has just about cleared the forecast area to the southeast as of 630 PM, along with its associated convection. Following this uncommon summertime frontal passage, drier air is in the process of filtering into the area, which will make the start of the weekend slightly cooler and significantly less humid.
A surface and upper level low pressure system continue to spin over Missouri producing very heavy rain and some flooding across the lower Midwest. Overnight temps will be a degree or too cooler overnight compared to this morning.
Subsidence under high pressure will restrict convective potential Today, but combination of diurnal heating, trough over SE GA, and east coast sea breeze which will be pinned near the coast, will produce isolated to scattered convection. High pressure ridge will be in place across the region Saturday, but will get pushed northward through the day as Hurricane Isaias approaches from the south southeast. Once again, subsidence under the high will limit convective potential somewhat.
Main weather concern tonight into Saturday night is the passage of a cold front which will also bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
/issued 248 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020/ (Tonight and Saturday) An isolated shower or thunderstorm remains a possibility in the vicinity of the cold front.
950 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020 A slow-moving cold front currently in North Dakota is heading southeast towards the Northland.
Scattered showers and rumbles of thunder could move back in later tonight as pieces of energy continue to rotate through the mid/upper trough over the MS Valley combined with a slight increase in the 850 mb west- southwesterly jet, but nothing very organized is expected. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 90 70 88 68 / 50 50 30 30 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 91 71 87 68 / 60 50 40 40 30 Oak Ridge, TN 71 89 69 87 67 / 50 50 40 30 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 90 69 86 66 / 80 50 40 60 50.
/issued 132 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020/ The upper level flow regime is just west of northerly across the region this afternoon with a high centered over AZ and a trough moving into the Midwestern states. The upper-level ridge will continue to amplify over the weekend, in response to an upper-level trough shifting eastward and a vigorous low pivoting into the Pacific Northwest. The ridge axis is forecast to extend poleward through the Intermountain West and into southern Alberta, with northwest-to-northerly mid- and upper-level flow overspreading the forecast area.
A slow-moving cold front currently in North Dakota is heading southeast towards the Northland.
The modeling really soups up ahead of the Low pressure/trof moving into scntl MO. as the Low moves in and the boundary remains ever present for the focus.
701 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020 Low pressure will pass south of central Illinois over the weekend bringing cloud cover and spotty showers to central Illinois through Saturday.
412 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020 Upper air analysis showed a positively tilted trough axis from Lake Michigan to northeast Oklahoma, a Bermuda ridge over Florida to north central Gulf of Mexico, and Hurricane Isaias over the Bahama Islands. Surface analysis showed a 1008mb low over northern Arkansas with a trailing from cold front to northeast Texas to Big Bend Texas and ridge axis across north Florida over north Gulf of Mexico. Initial precipitable water field showed moisture pooling along the surface front and ahead of the trough axis with precipitable water values of 2. The main trough axis will become neutral this afternoon through tonight. However, the moisture axis will tighten as the main trough pushes southeast tonight into Saturday.
359 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 Northerly flow aloft will continue across the forecast area today as high pressure remains situated across the desert SW with an area of low pressure across the Upper Midwest. The first of which, will be afternoon temperatures will be a bit higher ranging in the low to mid 90's area wide. Overall wind shear is a bit higher compared to previous days aloft which may help a storm to organize however with the high freezing levels and dry sub cloud layer the hail threat should remain low. Appears that convection should once again develop along the higher terrain of New Mexico this afternoon and drift south through the evening.
An upper level trough axis will gradually shift east over our area while a weak front drifts into our area today and dissipates on Sunday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible east of I-35 today and closer to the Coastal Plains on Sunday due to upward forcing ahead of the trough axis.
(Today and tonight) Latest synoptic-scale analysis shows an amplified flow pattern across the country, with anomalous ridging across the west and departing cyclone to our east. Modest moisture and weak instability should result in at least isolated convection along a cold front in Kansas this afternoon.
334 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 Forecast highlights in the short term period will be cooler and drier conditions today and tonight. Currently, northwest flow aloft across the Northern Plains with a high amplitude ridge over the Rockies and a long wave trough to our east.
336 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 At 08Z, a surface cold front was analyzed across northeast into southwest South Dakota. Temperatures across western and north central Nebraska were in the lower to mid 60s. A slight chance for showers or thunderstorms until mid morning across southeastern counties near the passing cold front and weak disturbance. With the cold front passing through by late morning, highs today will be slightly cooler in the upper 70s to around 80 north central to around 85 southwest. ON Sunday, 850mb temperatures will be a couple degrees cooler for highs from 75 to 80. Sunday night, an upper trough is forecast to extend from the Great Lakes through the lower Mississippi Valley with an upper ridge extending over the Great Basin in the west.
This afternoon through Saturday night Over the next couple of days, the forecast area will be in northwest flow as a strong upper ridge remains across the Intermountain West.
An upper level trough moving across the Mississippi River Valley has reached the farthest south that it will go and is going to start lifting northeastward today. That means the frontal boundary associated with the trough will not make it past our CWA. A pre- frontal trough that moved into the forecast area late yesterday will be the focus for convection today with greatest rain chances along/north of I-10.
The moisture and lift feeding the late evening storms is wrapping around the top of the ridge in northwest flow.
Clouds and moisture will increase ahead of a warm front lifting into SW PA to start the first weekend in August. Behind the departing low, the sfc cold front will be slow to clear the area, resulting in possible PM convection.
/Today through Sunday/ Confidence: Medium Our area continues to be sandwiched between a weak cool front/upper level disturbance to the northwest and a departing area of low pressure over Arkansas. Highs today will warm to near 80 north and in the lower to mid 80s central and south. The upper level low over Arkansas is expected to drift north northeast and phase somewhat with the northern stream front. After lows dip into the upper 50s northwest/west tonight with lower 60s east, highs Sunday will be cooler across the board with lower 70s north to the mid to upper 70s in the south.
115 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020 Rain chances will be increasing late Saturday as deepening low pressure over the lower Ohio valley lifts into the southern Great Lakes. However low level focus clearly east along/within sharp low level theta-e gradient amidst sfc warm frontal position. Turning cooler and dry Tue on as sfc ridging expands across the lakes. By sunrise, a slowly lifting upper low from SW IL will be nearing the area. Convection associated with this low will also be lifting NE with time. We should see ceilings drop to MVFR at KFWA around 15z while KSBN may hold just shy of MVFR as models show the terminals remaining more on the backside of the low.
355 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 A broad mid/upper level trough was noted over the Mid Mississippi Valley early this morning.
What is left is scattered t-storms just ahead of the true cold front which is near Bemidji to south of Fargo. Behind the front winds will turn to the north with cooler and drier air filtering into the region as canadian high pressure settles southward.
355 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 The main story today is the passage of a cool/cold front along with associated shower/isolated thunderstorm risk.
/issued 132 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020/ The upper level flow regime is just west of northerly across the region this afternoon with a high centered over AZ and a trough moving into the Midwestern states. The upper-level ridge will continue to amplify over the weekend, in response to an upper-level trough shifting eastward and a vigorous low pivoting into the Pacific Northwest. The ridge axis is forecast to extend poleward through the Intermountain West and into southern Alberta, with northwest-to-northerly mid- and upper-level flow overspreading the forecast area. The steering flow aloft should shift to the northwest heading into Sunday as the ridge axis drifts westward.
Based on mainly DPT gradient, the cold front is still well north of the area and seems to be stalled out as little movement has been noted through the night.
831 PM PDT Fri Jul 31 2020 A weak cold front will produce locally windy conditions to portions of central Washington this evening and trigger isolated thunderstorms in the far north Washington Cascades.
Slow moving upper trough to the west will only make slow progress towards the area on Saturday, with an associated front/trough moving into NW Alabama and Mississippi. Overnight lows are expected to be in the low to mid 70s.
An amplified ridge of high pressure will remain over the region through Sunday resulting in hot and mostly dry conditions.
An upper trough will slowly advance eastward through the near term. As the trough moves east the dry airmass over the area will be pushed east as deeper moisture moves in from the west. The combination of the upper trough and increasing deep layer moisture will lead to an increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Lows Saturday night will be in the low to mid 70s inland to upper 70s along the coast.
As for temperatures today, generally expect highs in the mid 70s-near 80, though areas seeing rain will likely be locally cooler. Scattered activity may linger in our far southeast into the early evening, but overall tonight is expected to be dry most areas, with temperatures falling into the 50s as cooler/drier air mass takes over.
A cold front pushed through the FA last night, but it was not a strong one. As of 3 am, dew points were still in the low to mid 60s over southeast North Dakota into adjacent areas of west central Minnesota, while values in the mid 50s had reached the Devils Lake region. Wind speeds were still light where the higher dew point values were located, but north winds should arrive by sunrise there too. Sunday highs look a few degrees cooler than those expected today, but wind speeds will be lower too.
The high amplitude pattern remains over the U. through the weekend with the ridge of higher pressure extending from the high center over the southwest U. This will bring a series of impulses showing up mainly as diurnally driven convective activity over the Rockies southward along the Front Range and into the western fringes of the High Plains region on Saturday and Sunday. The airmass in place at the surface under the upper high will moderate through Saturday with temperatures warming into the middle to upper 80s. Starting the work week an upper level ridge remains amplified from the Desert Southwest into southern Canada. This ridge will likely diminish any potential chances for precipitation.
Temperatures yesterday warmed to about as expected, into the lower and mid 80s. A ridge remained in place from AZ up through ID. At 850 mb, low pressure was near the AR/MO border, with another low across western Ontario. Cooler air was pushing down from ND behind that low. Surface analysis at 3 am showed a weak cold front dropping south across MN and SD. The cold front moving through the region, in association with a weak upper level disturbance should bring some showers and scattered thunderstorms to eastern NE and southwest IA. Look for highs in the lower to mid 80s. North winds will bring in a slightly cooler airmass, so expect highs Sunday in the upper 70s to around 80.
446 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020 Rain will continue to develop today and spread north as a low pressure area moves northeast from far southern Illinois to southeast Lower Michigan Sunday morning.
An upper level trough will continue to move into the eastern half of the U.
Cavanaugh Some SHRA will remain possible this evening at many sites as a cold front drops SE through the area.
Now seeing the true cold front/drier air mass pushing south and seems to be roughly from Baudette to Grand Forks to Harvey ND based on movement of a few showers that are trying to form along it. Behind the front winds will turn to the north with cooler and drier air filtering into the region as canadian high pressure settles southward.
No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the land areas of the Florida Keys, as the tropical cyclone is anticipated to move east of Andros as the motion gradually gains more and more of a northward component.
A highly amplified flow pattern is in place over the CONUS today, with a deep trough encompassing the central part of the country. The trough axis lies just east of the forecast area with a north to northwest flow prevailing aloft. At the surface, low pressure was sitting over the MO Bootheel with a front extending to its southwest down into the ArkLaTex.
Low pressure continues to slowly move into the region, with forecast exit tonight. This means shower activity will remain in place today, however as the Low tracks through the Ohio River Valley, the majority of showers will be located east of the I-55 corridor.
1235 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 A slow-moving cold front currently in North Dakota is heading southeast towards the Northland. As the cold front moves off to the east, a high pressure in Canada will extend into our area and bring cooler temperatures for the beginning of the week due to northerly flow, before gradually warming as the mid level flow shifts to the south.
Latest runs of the GFS/NAM/HREF support keeping likely PoPs through the morning hours over eastern Missouri into southwest Illinois as weak ascent from the upper low and high PWATs will support showers over these area through the morning hours. Have kept scattered showers going over much of the CWA into the afternoon as the upper trough axis will extend back into central Missouri into the afternoon which will cause enough instability for showers to develop.
Thin, high clouds continue to stream across southern Wisconsin this morning due to a compact low pressure system centered over the southern tip of IL. Weak lobes of vorticity will emanate out of the low and one is expected to spread westward across southern WI this afternoon. Lows tonight will be in the lower 60s with more cloud cover. An upper level low will be parked nearby during the early to middle portion of the week.
A warm start to the weekend can be expected with highs today, Saturday, climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s given the good agreement between the models of the warm 850mb temperatures that will be located along and ahead of a cold front that will be moving south across western Kansas later this afternoon. There also appears to be a chance for a few widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms with this cold front given the moisture and lift ahead of an upper level trough that will be crossing the Northern and Central Plains. As the cold front moves into the Panhandle of Oklahoma and Texas early tonight the precipitation chances will taper off from north to south.
338 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 This morning at 08Z a cold front extended from central Minnesota into South Dakota. Temperatures today will top out in the low to mid 80s with lows tonight ranging from the upper 50s near the Kansas and Nebraska border to the mid 60s across east central Kansas. Sunday will be cooler with highs mainly in the 70s to lower 80s behind the front.
High pressure moves overhead tonight provide mostly clear skies and light winds through a very deep layer,from the surface through nearly 25 kft. Chances for showers last overnight Saturday through Sunday as a cold front moving in from the northwest slowly continues southeastward through the region. Cooler conditions are expected Sunday with the showers and associated cloud cover.
Scattered showers and rumbles of thunder could move back in later tonight as pieces of energy continue to rotate through the mid/upper trough over the MS Valley combined with a slight increase in the 850 mb west- southwesterly jet, but nothing very organized is expected.