Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Saturated southwest flow continues to drift south over the CWA tonight ahead of approaching trough axis. Cold front will drop south tonight through tomorrow morning and will switch rain over to snow across the valleys. Temperatures tonight into tomorrow morning will drop quickly behind the frontal passage and mins will dip below freezing except in far southern reaches.
Building heights Friday due to a large 588+ dm H5 ridge over Mexico will allow for temperatures to increase a few degrees compared to today, especially if cloud cover exits a bit more progressively as indicated in low level GFS moisture profiles. This should be the last day of morning low cloudiness and elevated dewpoints before an approaching cold front comes through over the weekend.
901 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 High pressure will build into the region tonight through Friday.
The leading edge of slightly cooler and drier air is making its way southward through the Nature Coast and will continue to push slowly southward tonight. A large area of high pressure building slowly southward through Friday should keep clouds more scattered in nature, with most areas becoming mostly sunny. Temperatures will range from 75 to 80 north to south, and the humidity will remain on the low side.
409 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017 A warm front was located roughly along Interstate 20 and will continue to make slow progress northward. These strong winds combined with enhanced warming ahead of the next cold front will lead to very warm temperatures.
A low to mid level high pressure ridge will dominate the weather pattern with breezy northeasterly flow through Friday night.
The low stratus and reduced visibilities towards the sfc persist until enhanced low level mixing in the afternoon shifts the main precipitation eastward. Temperatures ahead of the trough and eventual strong cold front Friday evening are on abnormally warm for this time of year with readings in the middle 50s this afternoon, falling to the low and middle 40s tonight with the overcast skies.
Otherwise, temperatures across the area are already in the low to mid 30s, near forecast lows for tonight, and this looks good as well as light southeast winds and cloud should keep temperatures relatively steady. A narrow ridge of high pressure is located over IL and the Mississippi River Valley this afternoon/evening. The high pressure and relatively subsident air effectively trapped a layer of moisture over the region, resulting in a more cloudy day in the northern half of the state. By morning, winds come around to more southerly behind the ridge as the next front moves into the Midwest.
551 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017 A narrow ridge of high pressure is located over IL and the Mississippi River Valley this afternoon/evening. The high pressure and relatively subsident air effectively trapped a layer of moisture over the region, resulting in a more cloudy day in the northern half of the state. By morning, winds come around to more southerly behind the ridge as the next front moves into the Midwest.
301 PM MST Thu Nov 16 2017 An upper level trof will move through the region tonight. Afternoon temperatures will be a few degrees cooler on Friday as well.
A Cold front will usher in cooler temperatures for the weekend. Upper level trough moving across the northern Great Basin through the short term. Associated moisture tap will slide across the southern Sierra tonight, so expect another round of heavy snow for the higher elevations and increasing clouds as the plume sinks to the south of the Sierra Nevada, leading to increasing moisture and cloud cover for the rest of the region. Gusty winds today will only increase tomorrow as the trough tightens up and potent upper level jet shifts southward across the area.
The low level flow becomes more southerly with time so expect temperatures at least a couple of categories warmer on Friday afternoon.
Models bring a decent cold front across sometime in the afternoon.
Therefore, winds will turn north through the night with cooler and drier air for Friday pushing in from Canada. For Friday, an elongated upper level low pressure trough from the west will be moving towards our region. With upper forcing from the trough, expect areas of light rain to develop across the north central by Friday afternoon and slide/develop south into central South Dakota into the evening. The period begins with a broad upper level trough crossing the region with light pcpn possible, mainly in south central South Dakota.
The push of warmer air behind the warm front will complicate the forecast as far as p-types are concerned. RAP soundings indicate a warm layer of roughly 1 to 2 degrees Celsius at around the 800 mb level, with perhaps even warmer maximum temperatures possible. This would support a range of p-types, including snow, rain/snow mix, drizzle, freezing drizzle, and sleet. Overnight, temperatures should remain cold enough through the atmospheric profile to support mainly snow, with some isolated drizzle/freezing drizzle. The p-types become more eclectic just in time for the Friday morning commute, with drizzle, freezing drizzle, sleet, and snow all possible during that time. The good news is that the freezing precipitation will diminish by Friday afternoon as temperatures look to warm up to the lower to middle 30s across the area, with most locations seeing temperatures above freezing.
/issued 409 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017/ A warm front was located roughly along Interstate 20 and will continue to make slow progress northward. These strong winds combined with enhanced warming ahead of the next cold front will lead to very warm temperatures.
A strong cold front will approach the region Fri night with precipitation chances increasing from N to S as the front approaches.
An upper level trof will move through the region tonight. Afternoon temperatures will be a few degrees cooler on Friday as well.
944 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 Dry weather will briefly return with Friday high pressure.
High pressure will bring drier conditions to the area this weekend. In addition, surface frontal analysis is showing the cold front stalled out over Northern California and has kept the district under the warm sector. Surface observations from across the Sierra Nevada support this high snow level which is expected to lower after cold frontal passage later tonight. While models show precipitation spreading down to the Tulare/Kern County line of the Sierra Nevada, models have also shown a lack of precipitation over the lower terrain and into the valley.
A weakening cold front is forecast by models to continue to push south and bring drier air into northern Alabama. However, the lower 30s dewpoints are still well north in southern Kentucky. The low level flow becomes more southerly with time so expect temperatures at least a couple of categories warmer on Friday afternoon.
557 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017 A stalled frontal boundary and stubborn stratus have led to a much cloudier and cooler day for portions of Minnesota and Iowa today. Temperatures have been struggling to reach the freezing mark in a few locations. Meanwhile, south of the warm front across south central SD and NE, temperatures have soared into the 50s and even 60s.
Short range models indicate weak upper level ridging shifting eastward across the Central Plains tonight as an upper level trough begins to push ashore into the Pacific Northwest. Should see highs ranging from the mid 70s(F) to the lower/mid 80s(F) Friday afternoon. A prevailing westerly downslope flow ahead of the approaching boundary will dry out the lower levels limiting instability across much of western Kansas. However, the GFS/ECMWF/GEM show a strong +130kt upper level jet core downstream of the trough ejecting out of the Central and Southern Rockies into the high plains in conjunction with the frontal passage, not to mention significant post-frontal H7 frontogenesis developing briefly across western Kansas.
715 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 Weak cold front now east of the area will continue moving off shore this evening. High pressure builds back into the area tonight.
Highs Friday afternoon should top out in the lower and middle 60s most areas. Still looks like a strong cold front will push toward our area Friday night, with southerly winds increasing and pre-frontal warm advection helping to produce steady or slowly rising temperatures overnight.
The area of high pressure will slide off to the east tonight and Friday allowing the pressure gradient to tighten across the area. A warmer air mass will advect north into the area tonight and Friday ahead of the approaching system.
409 PM MST Thu Nov 16 2017 Latest SFC analysis shows a warm front extending from a low pressure center in central Montana to just north of the Black Hills and then arcing to the northeast toward Faith. High temperatures have reached the lower 70s on the plains of southwestern South Dakota. Tonight, the upper ridge will continue to shift off to the east of the forecast area as the upper trough drops southeastward toward the northern plains. On Friday, the upper trough will continue to move southeastward across the northern Plains as the main cold front crosses the forecast area. A narrow band of moderate to strong 850-700mb frontogenesis is forecast to cross the region rather rapidly behind the cold front.
) This will combine with the low level moisture to produce patchy to areas of fog, especially from after midnight to sunrise. The short wave trough associated with a storm system moving into the Pacific Northwest will amplify as it moves eastward across the US this weekend.
734 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 Behind a cold front that will cross NC early tonight, high pressure will build into NC from the northwest through Friday, before moving offshore Friday night.
900 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017 Latest surface observations show temperatures in the low 70s and dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s.
High pressure will remain in control for the period.
610 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017 Gusty southerly winds have taken hold across the area under weak ridging in the mid and upper levels. With some lingering cloud cover, I would tend to favor the low-end of guidance, but even that is in the 60s for most of the area.
523 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017 Forecast Highlight: 1: Strong cold front still scheduled to plow through KS late Fri Night & early Sat morning. The trof will move slowly E & should extend from eastern Nebraska to western KS by which time it will have broadened. With the surface trof remaining well to the west of KICT Country, pronounced lower-deck moist advection would commence this evening & continue thru Fri. The slow eastward trek of the trof would likewise push the lower- deck moisture axis east Fri afternoon. Fri Night & Sat: A strong, positively-tilted upper-deck trof that this afternoon is situated just off the WA/OR coast will surge E/SE, reaching from central Canada to the Central/Southern Rockies Fri Night. The wave will kick a strong cold front SE across KS.
754 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 High pressure will build across the state through Friday.
910 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 Dry weather will briefly return with Friday high pressure.
An upper trough moving ashore from the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies will result in the development of a lee trough across the area tomorrow, along with increasing westerly to southwesterly winds. Given the downsloping winds and favorable location of an 850mb thermal ridge across the region, near record and record highs in the 80s and lower 90s are expected areawide.
942 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 High pressure builds back into the area through Friday.
812 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 High pressure from the Ohio Valley to the northern Gulf coast west of the region will build slightly eastward overnight.
A moist air mass will be over the region with the warm front remaining stalled near the southern edge of the forecast area through the night. However, given high dewpoints, temperatures will likely only fall into the lower 70s. Weak upper troughiness to remain over the region. Surface front appears will shift north some as a warm front. Little overall change, with upper troughiness over the E CONUS.
640 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017 At 3 PM, a cold front extended from Ontonagon Michigan to Madison Wisconsin to Kirksville Missouri. These were associated with a low pressure system over northern Wisconsin. 12z models are in agreement that these showers and storms on the southern periphery of this low will gradually sink south into the Interstate 90 corridor late this afternoon and then dissipate with the loss of diurnal heating this evening. On Friday, a trough will move southeast across northern and eastern Wisconsin.
549 PM MDT Thu Aug 10 2017 Storms have fired this afternoon over the higher terrain, with the northern and central areas seeing the best coverage. This is due to a weak disturbance moving through the westerly flow on the northern periphery of an area of high pressure sitting well to our south. This area of high pressure is expected to slide eastward over Texas on Friday, thanks to an upper level trough moving inland along the Pacific Northwest coast.
Partly cloudy to mostly clear skies will hold on through the first half of the night, and this will set up fog development with light southerly flow at the surface, and relative subsidence aloft, following the exiting short wave trough to our east. Highs on Friday will be mainly in the lower 80s. The forecast period begins with a cold front near the Kentucky/Virginia border.
1017 PM MDT Thu Aug 10 2017 Broad upper trough continues across the eastern half of the CWA with upper ridging/rex block centered across the Pac NW.
935 PM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 High pressure extending into the area from the north will shift east and off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight. A stalled front to our south will lift northward into the area as a warm front on Thursday.
625 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017 A cold front is moving into far northwestern MO early this afternoon and will continue to move southward through the evening and overnight hours. With drier air moving in behind the front it should be relatively comfortable day with highs in the low to mid 80s and middle 60 degree dewpoints.
Could see a shower Friday afternoon with a mid level trough over the Upper Great Lakes. Mid/upper level trough axis has moved east ending the thunderstorm chances. Could see a shower Friday afternoon with a mid level trough over the Upper Great Lakes. Could see a shower or sprinkle tomorrow as the cooler air aloft moves through, but most places will remain dry. Below normal temps are likely on Friday, with mostly cloudy skies lingering much of the day and the cooler airmass aloft moving through.
Cold front has pushed through most of the plains, except over southern Lincoln County at this time. Storms pushing off the higher terrain and over the urban corridor have begun to erode the cap, and are gaining strength. Since the cold front is pushing south, the best chance for a spin-up may end up south of our forecast area. Expect slightly higher temperatures Friday as the upper ridge builds north a bit and allows for some warm advection. West to northwest flow aloft will continue through the weekend with high pressure to the South and upper troughing moving South out of Canada.
Slightly cooler conditions and higher rain chances are expected over the next few days. /issued 633 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017/ The latest surface observations indicate the presence of a warm front across north Mississippi this afternoon. Latest H5 analysis depicts the region beneath a trough axis, with an upper low centered over Wisconsin. The upper trough will not move much during the forecast period, providing several chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout. The warm front will lift north across the area tonight ahead of a cold front which will impact the region tomorrow. Highs will be similar to today, with the exception being in northwestern counties as the front will likely keep them a bit cooler.
/issued 336 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017/ (Tonight and Friday) Mid to upper level high pressure will remain in control over west central Texas tonight and into Friday. Thunderstorms developing across the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma this afternoon and evening are forecast to remain north of the Big Country overnight with the aforementioned ridge in place.
Look for only minor changes from day-to-day through the forecast period as a trough of low pressure remains off the coast. Weak upper level troughing continues over the Central California Coast, with modest onshore flow occurring at the surface.
A weak cold front will back into KCDS around sunrise Friday with winds shifting to the N/NE. Friday's weather should be fairly similar to today, with the most of the forecast area remaining warm and dry while our northern counties, being on the northern periphery of the upper ridge, and having the possibility of an outflow boundary bringing in moist, northeasterly flow, will maintain the chance of t-storm activity.
It appears that most of the convection has slipped south and east, but since the mid-level trough has not passed yet, still reluctant to completely remove chances for later tonight. The pattern aloft continued to feature a northwest flow regime across the Central Plains with an upper trough in the southern Great Lakes region, an upper ridge in the Pacific northwest and closed low undercutting the ridge in northern California. At the surface, a cold frontal boundary was advancing south from southern Nebraska and the boundary is expected to slowly progress south into central/southern Kansas heading into tonight. There is some concern for fog to develop tonight due to recent rain and a cooler post frontal airmass, but this may be offset by the drier air/lower dewpoints advecting in overnight.
GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: The persistent upper-level pattern of a ridge to the west and a long-wave trough to the east continues through the short-term period. Tonight, in advance of yet another short- wave trough dropping out of Canada, expect the mild, high pressure conditions of today to remain. With forcing from the trough, expect rain showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop. Before the wave fully enters the local area, some warmer air does filter in from the west raising highs closer to normal. Friday night, as the base of the trough swings through the local area models show a better chance for rain to develop.
Thunderstorms formed over the higher terrain this afternoon with light steering flow aloft, mainly across the Owyhee and Boise Mountains and eastern Oregon. Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop on Friday afternoon, mainly across the higher terrain.
18Z surface data has a cold front running from central Wisconsin into far northern Kansas. The cold front will sweep through the area this evening. On Friday, dry conditions will be seen across the area as high pressure builds into the area.
A weak area of low pressure offshore of the central Florida Atlantic coast will drift northwest tonight. Surface observations indicated a slight tighter pressure gradient over the local waters on the northern side of this low, and thus updated the forecast leaning toward the NAM12 winds which resulted in forecast winds of 10-15 kts this evening, relaxing to 5-10 kts and backing NNE after midnight as the low drifts northward toward the local waters.
917 PM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 High pressure will remain just east of the area through Friday.
/issued 306 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017/ The latest surface observations indicate the presence of a warm front across north Mississippi this afternoon. Latest H5 analysis depicts the region beneath a trough axis, with an upper low centered over Wisconsin. The upper trough will not move much during the forecast period, providing several chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout. The warm front will lift north across the area tonight ahead of a cold front which will impact the region tomorrow. Highs will be similar to today, with the exception being in northwestern counties as the front will likely keep them a bit cooler.
944 PM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 High pressure will remain just east of the area through Friday.
Otherwise, mostly cloudy overnight with lows in the lower to mid 70s.
A weakening line of storms cluster continued along the Highway 190 corridor from Merryville to Opelousas. A weak area of low pressure is moving away from the region this afternoon across the delta region. Deep moisture is still being pulled from the gulf into the low, however with the low moving east the highest moisture is removed from the local area. High pressure aloft will shift over the region, however the area will remain on the edge. The higher chances will be from across CenLA through the Atchafalaya Basin and east. A weak pressure gradient will remain across the area with a ridge centered to the east.
903 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017 Mid/upper level trough axis has moved east ending the thunderstorm chances. Could see a shower Friday afternoon with a mid level trough over the Upper Great Lakes. Could see a shower or sprinkle tomorrow as the cooler air aloft moves through, but most places will remain dry. Below normal temps are likely on Friday, with mostly cloudy skies lingering much of the day and the cooler airmass aloft moving through.
Little lighting activity has been observed so far as an upper trough keeps moving through SoFlo, except for a large thunderstorm near Fort Myers, outside of our area of responsibility.
1030 PM MDT Thu Aug 10 2017 A series of cool low pressure troughs moving across the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies and Southern Canada will converge with warmer moist southwest flow on the west side of a flat high pressure ridge over the Desert Southwest and Great Basin, over Wyoming.
1039 PM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 A weak trough of low pressure was near the Ohio Pennsylvania border this evening. A slow moving cold front will move across the area Friday. Drier conditions should return for the rest of the weekend as high pressure moves from the upper midwest to the eastern Great Lakes. Dew points have risen into the 60s in most areas and it will be warmer than last night with lows in the 60s. The trailing cold front will approach the area early Friday morning and slowly make it's way east during the day. The boundary will push east Friday night followed by cooler and dry air for the weekend.
It has been interesting to note backed flow ahead of this feature such as 15012kt at GRR which reflects the influence of the earlier mid level mesocyclone. Low pressure over Wisconsin will push a cold front through Lower Michigan tonight and Friday. Sfc analysis shows low pressure over central Wisconsin with a trailing cold front across eastern Iowa. We'll keep the chance of pcpn going through Friday morning before the cold front moves through.
Storms have fired this afternoon over the higher terrain, with the northern and central areas seeing the best coverage. This is due to a weak disturbance moving through the westerly flow on the northern periphery of an area of high pressure sitting well to our south. This area of high pressure is expected to slide eastward over Texas on Friday, thanks to an upper level trough moving inland along the Pacific Northwest coast.
A weak trough moving northwest by later tonight and tomorrow may cause activity to persist into the overnight hours. An inverted trough that caused the MCS last night will start to slowly move northwest tonight and north on Friday in response to deepening low pressure over the northern Great Basin.
A back door cold front will push southwestward through the E plains tonight into Friday morning, allowing low clouds with IFR and MVFR conditions into the NE quarter of the state.
Wind fields will be light over land so there will be weak low level convergence, but with the high moisture, we will need a small chance for showers through the night along the coast.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 86 72 87 / 30 70 30 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 84 69 86 / 30 70 40 30 Oak Ridge, TN 70 85 70 87 / 30 70 40 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 83 66 84 / 30 60 50 50.