Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THERE IS ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID AND UPPER 90S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. A MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.
Strong upper level flow is confined across the northern tier of states with much weaker flow in place along the Gulf Coast, highlighted by a weak upper low over the Florida Panhandle. At the surface, sprawling high pressure (1030mb centered over southern Canada) covers much of the eastern CONUS with a weak trough just off the Carolinas. The upper low will remain generally stationary over the region today. However, with the low being weak (and no well defined surface boundaries), forcing is expected to remain weak as well. Best rain chances expected to be on the eastern flank of the upper low with the southerly mid-level flow.
559 AM MDT WED SEP 23 2015 THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION. AND OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHERN MEXICO RETROGRADES TONIGHT AND BECOMES PART OF THE RIDGE THAT AMPLIFIES AND EXTENDS FROM BAJA.
905 AM MDT WED SEP 23 2015 QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. BUT STILL EXPECTING OUR EAST TO REMAIN CAPPED WITH WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS.
INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG TO ALL OF THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH 12Z WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST THEREAFTER. QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER TODAY AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO SOUTHERLY.
1-4 DEGS COOLER TODAY THEN 3 TO 7 DEGS WARMER THURSDAY UNDER DRY SWLY FLOW ALOFT.
617 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 252 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2015/ AT 5H THERE IS A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM TX TO THE MIDWEST. WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE PANHANDLE OF FL. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL START TO MOVE FROM GA TO THE TN VALLEY. THIS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S. SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP MRNG LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
747 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN AND BE REPLACED BY A LARGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT INTO THE WEEKEND.
/ISSUED 408 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2015/ RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL KEEP BENIGN CONDITIONS IN PLACE TODAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. AS THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES SW. A SECOND UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SERN CONUS.
1027 AM MDT WED SEP 23 2015 CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE DISSIPATING AND SLIDING EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AS THE TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT SLIDES EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION AND RADAR RETURNS BOTH INDICATING A SMALL CLOSED LOW CENTERED A LITTLE EASTWARD OF MONTROSE THIS MORNING. MORE SHOWERS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE NE STILL FAVORING SOUTHERN AREAS. A SLIGHT DOWNTICK IN PRECIP FOR THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH ALLOWING PRECIP TO GET GOING AGAIN FOR THE SAN JUANS.
1015 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 13Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH GENERAL LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK SO FAR THIS MORNING AS THEY REBOUND FROM THE PRE DAWN LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND NEAR 60 ON THE RIDGES TO MORE UNIFORM MID AND UPPER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS CURRENTLY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TODAY MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW MEANDERS AROUND THE AREA OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ONLY MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PRESENT ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES CENTERED PRESENTLY NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO VENTURE FAR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW AROUND IT AND ONLY ISOLATED STORMS. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES MAY BE A TAD WARMER WITH LESS ACTIVITY EXPECTED. BUT SHOULD STILL RUN IN THE LOW/MID 80S.
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DRIFT WESTWARD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE. UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF TODAY PROMOTING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE LOWER 80S. WITH MANY AREAS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER 70S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN SOME THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
15Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION TRAPPED BETWEEN TWO FEATURES OF NOTE: A WEAK/ELONGATED CUTOFF LOW EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO NORTH GEORGIA, AND BROAD RIDGING CENTERED OVER TEXAS. MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IS TRAPPED IN BETWEEN, AND DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S, A CUMULUS FIELD HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP MRNG LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DRIFT WESTWARD FOR THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF TODAY PROMOTING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE LOWER 80S. WITH MANY AREAS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER 70S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN SOME THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
649 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015 MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. /ISSUED 215 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015/ AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BEEN THE FEATURE THAT HAS IMPACTED THE WEATHER OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS THE MOST FOR THE LAST WEEK.
07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WITH ALL OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHIFTED WELL SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MO/CENTRAL IL. SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW RUNS FROM THE U. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST 5-10 DEGREES COOLER MOST AREAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH WITH THIS.
713 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HAVE BLOOMED WITH TOWERING CUMULUS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY. BUT THERE IS A WEAK 700-500MB TROUGH MOVING BY TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT. ALTHOUGH PINPOINTING EXACT DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IS TOUGH BUT IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE AROUND THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA UPPER RIDGE IS POSSIBLE AND WE ARE DEFINITELY HITTING THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION TEMPS LATELY FOR CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL START THE BEGINNING OF FLATTENING OUT THE RIDGE AND FORCE IT TO RETREAT WESTWARD AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK. EVEN THOUGH THE SHIFT IN THE RIDGE.
AS WARMER 850 MB TEMPS ADVECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. A SHOWER OR STORM COULD NOT BE RULED OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT.
EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS AND RETREATS WESTWARD.
1019 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
CAN SEE THAT CU IS ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON VIS SATELLITE JUST AHEAD OF THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.
NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LVL RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD. /ISSUED 212 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015/ UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD MAINTAINING MAINLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE NEAR THE ID/NV BORDER WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT E-SE TODAY. DRIER AND WARMER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEST-EAST ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE SOUTH AND BRING STABLE CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND TRANSITION TO A ZONAL FLOW ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER TODAY AND A FEW MORE DEGREES WARMER ON MONDAY.
OFFSHORE FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OFF TO THE WEST LEAVING NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING. A SMALL IMPULSE ON THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TOWARD MENDOCINO COUNTY THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS WEST.
1015 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT THE TRACK OF THIS AS THE HIGH- RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING IT VERY WELL. 500 MB HIGH SITTING OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND GENERAL TROF FROM THE NRN PLAINS BACK INTO THE SWRN CONUS. TONIGHT COOLER AS A FRONT SETTLES INTO THE REGION AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE NRN HALF OF THE STATE.
WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over the ArklaTex, and extending across the entire southern CONUS. Area radars show earlier convection over the higher terrain is all but diminished, and expected to redevelop this afternoon on the edge of a theta-e ridge running thru wrn NM.
HOWEVER, THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD ALSO DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY SO STORM MOTION WILL BE LESS THAN 5MPH. A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL GET CARVED OUT ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH TROUGHING DEVELOPING OFF THE SE U.
1015 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY SOME WHICH MAY BE SEVERE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTERIOR MAINE. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.
745 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTING OVER OK AND AR IS ORIENTING THE RING OF FIRE FROM THE TX PANHANDLE ARCING AROUND NORTHERN MO-SOUTHERN IA INTO OHIO. STORMS THIS MORNING IN NORTHERN MO ARE FORMING ALONG CONVERGENT 850 MB BOUNDARY WHILE A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA. KEPT POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE AT THIS POINT. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT TAKING THE EDGE OFF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPERIENCED THE PAST FEW DAYS. I AM INCLINED TO KEEP POPS IN THE LOWER END OF CHANCE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH ENDING ANY RAIN THREAT.
A DEEP RIDGE COMPLEX STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE LOWER PORTIONS HAVE FRACTURED INTO TWO PIECES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S.
1036 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015 ANOTHER HOT AFTN ON TAP AS LARGE DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER THE REGION. THE CWA REMAINS ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND THIS IS ALLOWING FOR BETTER MOISTURE TO STREAM ACRS THE AREA ON ELY WINDS ALOFT. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION MINIMAL ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF OVER THE AREA. AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSURING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE. LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WEST ACROSS THE GULF WATERS.
/ISSUED 345 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015/ A STAGNANT PATTERN UNDER UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN THE CARDS TODAY WITH NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS FORESEEN. THIS RIDGE WAS BUSY WARDING OFF T-STORMS FROM OUR REGION AS THE NEAREST PRECIP WAS FOUND JUST NORTH OF I-40 FROM TCC TO AMA.
We'll see an active pattern over the next few days with the upper ridge flattened or shifted west and a quasi-stationary boundary across the area. So afternoon highs in the low 90s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s yield heat indices at or greater than 105 from Linn county, KS through Henry county, MO. High pressure building into the north should help to dry things out. Although this is all relative this year and dewpoints will likely remain in the 70+ range until the high is nearly directly overhead.
830 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY SOME WHICH MAY BE SEVERE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTERIOR MAINE. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.
AS IF THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES COULDN'T RISE ANY HIGHER. TEMPERATURES IN THIS LOW MIXING ENVIRONMENT SHOULD EASILY REACH MID TO UPPER 90S AND PRODUCING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 108-118 RANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS.
SW WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEK AS ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH STALLS TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION MOVING EAST THROUGH NORTHWEST WY EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION MONDAY. INITIALLY MAINLY OFFERING A WIND SHIFT AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS IN EASTERN MT. SHORT WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ENHANCE THE LEE SIDE TROUGH.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY, BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INLAND LATE THIS WEEK CAUSING THESE NORTH WINDS TO WEAKEN. A RATHER STATIC WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHEAST PACIFIC RIDGE.
1027 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
913 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
DID BUMP UP SKY COVER A BIT ALONG A SFC COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALTHOUGH DID NOTICE A FEW OF THE HIGH RES MODELS WANTED TO GENERATE SHOWERS.
A TROUGH OVER THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA AND A WEAK LAND BREEZE BOUNDARY OFFSHORE HAVE ENCOURAGED THE MORNING CONVECTION.
/ISSUED 305 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015/ LATEST AVAILABLE MODELS HAVE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. THE RIDGE CENTER LOOKS TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD THE NEW MEXICO AREA. 42 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE AIRMASS IS GENERALLY DRY UNDERNEATH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
SUPPORTING LL THETA-E RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED LSA. SHRA/TS CHANCES WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A PASSING NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE WITH AN ASSOCIATED LL TROUGH AND STRONGER JET STREAK TO THE NE OF THE FA MAY SUPPORT A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS ACROSS NW SD TONIGHT. WHERE WEAK LL FLOW WILL SUPPORT STRONG MID RIDGE CONVERGENCE BY AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW CLD COVER WILL LINGER ON THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WILL THEN START TO IMPROVE AS THE DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MIXING KICKS IN. 500 MB RIDGING WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER TX THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WHICH WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY STATUS QUO CONDITIONS THROUGH MON. A LITTLE MORE CLD COVER FOR MON MAY HOLD DOWN THE HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO.
IN GENERAL, DEW POINTS IN THE 50'S EXIST ACROSS THE REGION, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60'S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY.
STORMS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND MAINLY NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE HIGH PW VALUES IN PLACE. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND MAINLY NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SOME STORM BEING HEAVY RAINERS.
1132 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY SOME WHICH MAY BE SEVERE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTERIOR MAINE. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL START THE BEGINNING OF FLATTENING OUT THE RIDGE AND FORCE IT TO RETREAT WESTWARD AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK. EVEN THOUGH THE SHIFT IN THE RIDGE.
THE WAVE WILL ALSO CAUSE THE THERMAL TROUGH WEST OF THE CASCADES TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST TODAY.
TOMORROW STORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER EXPECT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH OF THIS BNDRY AS WELL. AS FOR TEMPS READINGS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH READINGS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE ARKLATEX TODAY WILL STILL SUPPORT 500MB HEIGHTS OF 594-595 DM. /ISSUED 305 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015/ LATEST AVAILABLE MODELS HAVE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. THE RIDGE CENTER LOOKS TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD THE NEW MEXICO AREA. 42 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
Broad upper level high, currently centered over the ArkLaTex region, will remain over Texas today and tonight. Temperatures are expected to be a little hotter today, as the 850mb thermal ridge strengthens over our area.
1131 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. /ISSUED 632 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015/ VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
1040 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TODAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
12Z OHX SOUNDING APPEARS TO HAVE A LITTLE LESS INSTABILITY THAN YESTERDAY AS MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST PEAKS WILL STILL BE BELOW FREEZING FOR A WHILE. WILL UPDATE TO ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 60 38 56 35 / 20 0 10 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 55 32 52 30 / 50 20 10 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 56 32 52 30 / 50 20 10 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 52 29 43 24 / 40 30 10 0 NC.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGH SIERRA. WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH HAS SHIFTED INLAND WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.
Brong Low pressure over southern California will bring a chance of showers and possible thunderstorms later today, with a cooler and wetter pattern continuing through this weekend.
957 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS IS ALL AHEAD OF A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH EASTERN ILLINOIS AND INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE EVENING.
NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BC COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN MAN/NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY SAT NIGHT.
COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE AREA. /ISSUED 342 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016/ REINFORCING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOOKS READY TO ENTER THE EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH FAIR CONDITIONS.
A DEEP DRY WEST-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REINFORCED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SHIFTS EASTWARD. A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS OF CANADA AND THE U.
A WEAK AND INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIND COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM KESF TO KHOU TO KARM.
UPPER LVL RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WITH A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND A SECOND TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH HIGHER MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER/AND POTENTIAL RAIN SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS GETTING PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO MOVE ONSHORE IN SOUTHERN CA. AT THE SAME TIME A SECOND CLOSED LOW STARTS TO APPROACH SOUTHERN CA AND ABSORB THE FIRST. BUT HAVE NOW COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL BE A SECOND CLOSED LOW. A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER TODAY THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. TONIGHT AND SATURDAY THE SECOND CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST.
LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DICTATED BY A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WILL EXPERIENCE WINTER-LIKE CONDITIONS, FLORIDA WILL BE ON THE DRY AND PLEASANT SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
938 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING COLD TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY. NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION IN THE COLD NW FLOW UNDER/BEHIND THE PROGRESSING TROUGH AXIS OVER THE REGION. ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES. FOR THE RIDGES. CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE INCRSG UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MIXING LAYER UNDER THE CROSSING MID-LVL THERMAL TROUGH TO SUPPORT MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WILL AGAIN BE IN THE RIDGES. HENCE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COUNTIES NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AS WELL AS THE RIDGES.
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING.
OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN MEXICO AND POSSIBLE SUBSEQUENT APPROACH TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. GRADUALLY FLATTENING UPR RIDGE OVERHEAD AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD YIELD MAX TEMPS JUST A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL. MAIN FCST CHALLENGE OF THE SHORT-TERM INVOLVES WHETHER CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN MEXICO FRIDAY EVENING WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF AND PROPAGATE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE CWFA. WITH LOW-LEVEL DRYING AND REBOUNDING RIDGING ALOFT ENDING PRECIP THREAT. TEMPS ON SAT WILL BE A FEW DEG COOLER VS FRI.
slightly cooler temperatures can be expected today over what was observed yesterday with less wind speeds in the lower levels limiting mixing. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase later this weekend as the next upper system and cold front approach the plains.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCING NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION NORTH INTO UTAH TODAY.
The high pressure should keep the region dry and cool from tonight through Saturday evening.
/ISSUED 417 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016/ UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE BAJA COAST CONTINUING TO SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL SHIFT EAST AND GIVE WAY TO LEESIDE TROUGHING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
631 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TO THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMING NORTHEAST. A WEAK AND INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIND COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM KESF TO KHOU TO KARM.
/ISSUED 413 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016/ SHORT WAVE RIDGING CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING UPPER FLOW TO BACK. THIS UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL TODAY UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY WHEN A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. UPPER LOW PRESENTLY OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL KEEP UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWING OVERHEAD AND WILL ADD SOME MID LEVEL MOISTENING TO THIS TODAY. SURFACE RIDGING HAS ALLOWED DRY LOW LEVEL AIR TO PUSH INTO A LARGE AREA OF TEXAS CUTTING OFF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
/ISSUED 347 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016/ AN UNUSUALLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROF WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY. A REINFORCING ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH LATE TONIGHT. LONGWAVE TROF WILL LIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. ALLOWING SOUTHERN BRANCH ZONAL FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.