Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
201 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY.
Tonight, the next wave of upper-level support will move across the High Plains.
245 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WITH A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN PLACE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 70S AND HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR EASTERN LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES SINCE MOISTURE IS NOT TOTALLY SCOURED OUT.
146 PM MST SUN JUN 14 2015 THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GILA COUNTY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEK LEADING TO SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS. STABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE BIG STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE THE RETURN OF 110+ DEGREE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
144 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SURGE OF THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND SO GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING I WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED OUR CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEGINNING AROUND 22Z. SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE PRETTY ACTIVE WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THIS LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND PASS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AREA SLOWLY TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS STACKING EFFECT OF HIGH PRESSURE IS LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS THE MID STATE AS THE RIDGING EXPANDS OUR WAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES PICK UP WEST OF US ACROSS TX AS WELL AS THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEYS. MRH FIELDS WILL STILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE WITH HIGH PRESSURE STACKED JUST TO OUR EAST.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXPECTED TOMORROW IN GREATER COVERAGE AS AN UPPER TROUGH SITS OVER THE PLAINS AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGES INLAND OVER THE TX COASTAL BEND. AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE GULF.
The second half of the week will be breezy and cooler with showers remaining over the mountains. High pressure moving down from Alberta east of the Rockies will set up a decent east-to-west pressure gradient.
1043 AM PDT SUN JUN 14 2015 A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SLIGHT COOLING IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH. THE BEACHES AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN A JUNE GLOOM TYPE PATTERN FOR TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA AND CLAMPS DOWN ON TOP OF THE MARINE LAYER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING A WARMING TREND.
MONDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
300 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015 DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE EARLIER DEVELOPMENT AND A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THEY NOW ALL SHOW THE RIDGING A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIAL THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH WITH THE TRAIN OF WEAK ENERGY WAVES STAYING FURTHER NORTH THAN LAST NIGHT/S VERSION.
Temperatures near to slightly warmer than normal will be common during this time across the entire region.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER BETWEEN 06Z-09Z WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. QUASI-ZONAL/CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA.
153 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015 AVIATION LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW MOVES EAST ON MONDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TO NEAR JACKSON. THE LOW SHOULD PIVOT EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME ADDITIONAL AIRMASS RECOVERY POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT CONVECTION.
414 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 THE PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS WITH A SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER LOCKED IN OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND GENERAL TROUGHING OVER THE WEST GULF. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND A BIT MORE TO THE WEST AND HELP TO SHIFT THE DEEP MOISTURE CHANNEL AND GREATER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE FARTHER WEST. TROPICS/LONG RANGE UPDATE: CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE ARKLAMISS WILL BE UNDER SUFFICIENT INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ANTICYCLONE TO AVOID THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN TX INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION - BUT WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS SEVERE WEATHER THREATS IN LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MS RIVER UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE APPARENT THAT THE CONSENSUS FORECAST SOLUTION WILL VERIFY.
WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER, DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION STARTING MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
AND OKC IN AREAS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE AND SUBTLE YET DEEP CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW.
THOUGH THE COAST IS COOLER WHERE ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME MARINE CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE COAST RANGE MON MORNING AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH THE LOWER GAPS IN THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST RANGE.
THE ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT IS HELPING DRIVE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE AIRMASS BECOMING UNSTABLE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER AND MID 70S.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EXPECT MAINLY FREEZING RAIN IN THE GORGE AND A MIXTURE OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL OREGON. I CHANGED START TIME OF THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN COLUMBIA GORGE TO CURRENT TIME TO MATCH THE ADVISORY FOR THE WEST SIDE.
1227 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID WEEK.
1200 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT PARTS OF WESTERN VERMONT THIS MORNING OTHERWISE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND PERSIST RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
Low temperatures will be a bit warmer than previous nights given increased cloud coverage and southeast winds. Mid and high level moisture will be on the increased, but there is a pronounced dry layer in the low levels that will need to be overcome. Model soundings do work on this low level dry layer as lift spreads over the area, but it never really erodes. Concerns for freezing drizzle are lower given the low level moisture profile and have lowered the mention of light freezing rain to just slight chance. Temperatures warm above freezing by the mid morning hours. Highs will reach the low 40s (give or take) during the afternoon. An upper level trough will be in the process of moving into the plains as we head into Wednesday night.
VIS SATELLITE IS SHOWING A CLEAR MOISTURE BOUNDARY IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Strong high pressure now centered near Pittsburg combined with developing low pressure over the western Plains is providing the area with south-southeast flow today.
WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EXPECT MAINLY FREEZING RAIN IN THE GORGE AND A MIXTURE OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL OREGON. I CHANGED START TIME OF THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN COLUMBIA GORGE TO CURRENT TIME TO MATCH THE ADVISORY FOR THE WEST SIDE. FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN. FREEZING FOG WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBY HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT KPDT AND KYKM.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FL STRAITS-BAHAMAS REGION. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES POSITIONED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WILL BE GOOD AND WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE IN PLACE AND BROAD SCALE LIFT, THERE LOOKS TO BE A FOCUS OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.
1206 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
1214 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION TODAY.
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN OUR NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.
The ridge axis extended from East Texas through the Ohio Valley to New England. This will open up the gulf and transport warmer moist air into the heartland ahead of the next system.
328 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS TODAY AND WILL DO SO TOMORROW AS WELL. LOW TEMPS WILL BE AROUND FREEZING TONIGHT FOR ONE MORE TIME THIS WEEK. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A QUIET DAY AS WELL WITH TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER AND CLOUD COVER INCREASING.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE FROM THE SW WHILE THE LOWER CLOUDS ARE STUCK OFFSHORE IN THE MARINE LAYER. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APEX IS NOW EAST OF THE AREA AND WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS STRONG ENOUGH TO STILL HAVE IMPACTS ON THE AREA IN THE FORM OF SUBSIDENCE AND COLDER TEMPS NOTED TODAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT SOUTH OF THE ERODING RIDGE OVERHEAD AND THEN MAINLY COASTAL PARISHES AS THE TROUGH MOVES CLOSER DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUBFREEZING WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR PATCHY FREEZING FOG INTRODUCED.
AN UPPER LOW OFFSHORE WILL BRING A LITTLE RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRIER WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A PRECIPITATION TYPE OF RAIN/SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. COULD SEE PATCHY SLICK SPOTS ON OVERPASSES/BRIDGES AND ELEVATED SURFACES FROM THE PATCHY OFF-AND- ON LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE.
1014 AM MST TUE JAN 5 2016 TEMPS WARMING RATHER QUICKLY THIS MRNG ACRS NERN WY THROUGH FAR WRN SD/BLKHLS WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD (ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY). TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK TROF ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
AS A BROAD AND SHALLOW NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U. AS THE LOWER LAYER UNDERNEATH AN 85-95H INVERSION SATURATES UP.
As a result, valley temperatures in western Montana could quickly drop into the single digits, aiding in the development of patchy freezing fog. Some of the higher valleys above 3500 feet could see a mix of rain and snow.
1235 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
346 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR TONIGHT WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST TONIGHT. LEAD WAVE FROM WEST COAST TROUGH WILL LIFT NE WEDNESDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE LATE WEEK. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (1040+ MB) OF ARCTIC ORIGIN EXTENDED INTO OUR REGION FROM NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN PROBLEM TONIGHT WILL BE THE LOW TEMPERATURES WITH REGARDS TO HOW LOW WILL IT GO? IT DOES APPEAR THE PIEDMONT WILL HAVE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY BUILDS WEST OVERNIGHT TOWARD THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY 12Z/WED. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ARE EXPECTED FROM FAYETTEVILLE AND CLINTON TO GOLDSBORO. NW ZONES SHOULD STAY SUNNY UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS.
WITH MANY LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS. WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. STILL ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
1055 AM MST TUE JAN 5 2016 TEMPS WARMING RATHER QUICKLY THIS MRNG ACRS NERN WY THROUGH FAR WRN SD/BLKHLS WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD (ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY). TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK TROF ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
MORNING WATER VAPOR AND H5 ANALYSIS INDICATE A WEAK TROUGH CONTINUING TO MINOR OUT OVER NORTHERN UTAH. 12Z KSLC RAOB HAS SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT EROSION OF THE LOW LEVEL WARM NOSE OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. BUT ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS ARE STILL NOTED BETWEEN 850-800MB WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE LOWEST VALLEY AREAS DUE TO PERSISTENT VALLEY INVERSIONS. WET SLEET AND POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN FROM NORTH SALT LAKE THROUGH DAVIS COUNTY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NOTED ON THE HIGHER BENCHES. STILL POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLICK DRIVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWEST VALLEY BOTTOMS OF THE NORTH THROUGH MID MORNING BUT CONTINUED EROSION OF THE WARM NOSE. FOCUS SHIFTS UPSTREAM TO THE NEXT TROUGH OF THE SERIES CURRENTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.
BUT LEFT THIS OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW AS SURFACE WINDS COULD KEEP THE LOW-LEVELS MIXED. IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH H7 TEMPS ABOUT 2-4 C LOWER THAN TODAY. FRAGMENTED NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUGGESTS POOR DYNAMICS AND ONLY LOW-END CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.
AND THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW WILL KEEP THINGS STRONG AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
1220 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED ITS PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
312 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
843 AM PST TUE JAN 5 2016 Light snow and a bit of freezing rain will be possible this morning with the passage of a weak upper level disturbance. Another system tonight into Wednesday morning will have the potential to bring another round of freezing rain in the Columbia Basin into the Spokane area.
1231 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION TODAY.
428 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL SLOWLY MODERATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SLIDES TO THE EAST.
THAT BEING SAID, HIGH LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL STILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND PEAK TONIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN.
1225 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES (BELOW 20000 FEET) LOOKS TO REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THROUGH TOMORROW.
INITIAL S/WV ENERGY ALF FROM AN UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE MIDWEST WILL ARRIVE DURING THE DAY SAT.
A southerly wind around 10 mph can be expected through the night, which will keep overnight lows about 4-5 degrees warmer than last night.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY AND ADJUSTED HIGHS A LITTLE UPWARD.
1244 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER TODAY.
142 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016 RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION WAS PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COOL TEMPS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S WITH VERY LOW DEWPOINTS. FOR TONIGHT EXPECT COLD TEMPS AGAIN WITH MRNG LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 20S UNDER CLR SKIES. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE TN VALLEY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW TO SET UP ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AND LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE LOWER 30S.
DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT.
929 AM MST TUE JAN 5 2016 A WEAK AND VERY SHALLOW COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE CENTER OF THE 1040+ ARCTIC ORIGIN HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER NY STATE LATE MORNING. HIGHS ARE STILL FAVORED TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S N-NE ZONES TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. THE SLP GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGER TO THE EAST AS AN INVERTED TROUGH HUGS THE COAST. A CONTINUATION OF FAIR BUT CHILLY WEATHER FROM THE NEAR TERM ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.
330 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INLAND THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. THE TROUGH WILL LINGER AS IT TRANSFORMS INTO A STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH LATE WEEK.
High pressure in the Upper Ohio Valley will slowly drift eastward, which will increase our southerly wind flow through the afternoon. The upper level high pressure ridge will cross east of central IL by afternoon allowing some periods of high clouds to move into the area. despite starting the day a bit cooler. Southerly component already in the winds across the region as the ridge pulls off to the northeast.
212 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SE US THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
346 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016 (Tonight and Wednesday) Currently, an upper level trough moving northeast across eastern NM and west TX is resulting in showers northwest of our area. The next trough in the train of waves that will affect our area is moving into the southern CA coast. Lows tonight will be warmer across the area in the 40s for most locations with clouds and moisture increase. Highs tomorrow could be a few degrees warmer even with cloud-cover and rain chances due WAA from continued southerly flow.
Think some drizzle (freezing drizzle too) could be materialized. The highest temperatures readings are expected in the southwest zones where the downslope plume is the stronger.
230 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA WITH LOW SPINNING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TROUGH DROPPING TO THE SOUTH. PASSIVE UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST WITH UPPER FLOW STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AS INITIAL SHORT WAVE EJECTING OFF PACIFIC SYSTEM STARTS ITS APPROACH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING RAIN.
With temps near or just below freezing at the surface, and a possible small warm nose at times, precipitation chances will remain in the form of light amounts of snow, sleet, drizzle and/or freezing drizzle. It is possible that freezing drizzle advisories may need to be issued tonight for the early morning hours over portions of the area, but right now will let the evening shifts evaluate a little further before making a final decision.
339 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016 CURRENTLY A VAST AMOUNT OF DRY AIR BELOW 500 MB IS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WITH THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE BEING THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN ALL POSSIBLE WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THRU 12Z. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER TONIGHT THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. FREEZING DRIZZLE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE SW THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL RESULT IN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS WELL AS LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WITH MANY VALLEYS SEEING TEMPS IN THE LOW TEENS. AND MOST RIDGES STAYING AT OR JUST BELOW 20 DEGREES. AS WE ARE IN THE HEART OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF TO THE E/NE AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DAMPENS. HOWEVER GIVEN THE WARMER ADVECTION IN PLACE. PERIOD WILL START QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE PARKED TO OUR NORTHEAST.
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE NRN PLAINS. WITH TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. LOW IS LOCATED OVER ERN WY WITH TROF EXTENDING EWD INTO SCNTRL. AND COOLER ON THE SD PLAINS. MANY OF THE HI RES SOLUTIONS SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE WEAK N/NE FLOW.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. AS A BROAD AND SHALLOW NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U. AS THE LOWER LAYER UNDERNEATH AN 85-95H INVERSION SATURATES UP.
325 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016 WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL BREAK DOWN QUICKLY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ENERGY BEGINS EJECTING EAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER WARMER AIR INTO SOUTHERN WI OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.
KEEPING TEMPS A BIT WARMER OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION TOMORROW. HOWEVER A SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT EJECTS FROM MAIN UPPER TROFF MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. A SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
359 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016 CRYSTAL CLEAR SKIES ARE UPON MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH MAINTAINS CONTROL.
AT LEAST HAD AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AT THAT TIME. A FAIRLY LOW AND SHALLOW WARM LAYER WILL MEAN THE START OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE A MIXTURE OF SLEET SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN/RAIN. WEDNESDAY LIKEWISE WILL NOT SHOW MUCH WARMING WITH HIGHS AT MOST A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FREEZING.
This activity will encounter a sub-freezing airmass once it reaches eastern KS and western MO, but also a much drier one particularly just above the surface. Given the dry air above the ground, yet relative saturation above this layer, precipitation may take more of a light snow/sleet/snow grain mix as opposed to freezing rain or freezing drizzle. Have therefore reduced the chances for any freezing precipitation since the chances for any impactful icing appear low. Any light wintry precipitation Wednesday morning will gradually change over to rain by late morning and early afternoon as temperatures rise above freezing.
207 PM MST TUE JAN 5 2016 WATER VAPOR SHOWING CIRCULATION WITH UPPER TROF ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A BIT OF CLOUD ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW ACROSS LINCOLN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES BUT THAT WOULD BE ABOUT IT. FOR TONIGHT JUST ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROF. NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AGAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING NORTHEAST OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
1005 AM MST TUE JAN 5 2016 ADDED FREEZING FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION FOR TONIGHT AND WED MORNING. BASED ON MOISTURE PROFILES FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE A POSSIBILITY.
326 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016 Active pattern will persist through the weekend with longwave trough remaining over western and central U.
232 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016 COLD HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST WITH WINDS ACROSS THE REGION BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST. CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S OVERNIGHT.
1046 AM MST TUE JAN 5 2016 ADDED FREEZING FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION FOR TONIGHT AND WED MORNING. BASED ON MOISTURE PROFILES FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE A POSSIBILITY.
321 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WITH A DEVELOPING WEAK COASTAL TROUGH. THE BROAD 5H TROUGH ADVANCING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL PLACE EASTERN TEXAS IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE NEXT DAY AND A HALF.