Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A low pressure system tracking across the upper Great Lakes region today will bring a cold front toward our area by the evening. Isolated to scattered showers may be possible in the morning, but the main period of storms will begin in the early afternoon as a pre-frontal trough moves into the Cumberland Plateau, with peak forcing in the 18-22Z time frame as the upper jet dips into KY/WV. Precip chances will decrease in the evening as the upper level forcing exits, with isolated to scattered storms possible until the surface cold front exits around 06Z.
Temperatures will be considerably warmer than those of Thursday based on airmass modification and more sunshine expected.
650 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017 A strong area of low pressure will push a cold front through the area later today and this evening. High pressure will bring cooler and drier air for the weekend. Also, the upper low pulls northeast so the forecast area slowly loses the favorable jet.
411 AM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017 Canadian high pressure will drift southeast of the region today, bringing mostly sunny skies and cool temperatures. Highs will range in the mid 70s, to the lower 80s.
346 AM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017 Current surface analysis places broad high pressure over the northern and central plains. Upper level analysis places a ridge over the Pacific and low over western Wisconsin. Northwest flow remains over our area, though a compact low/trough sliding through the flow is now passing over Alberta. This will result in a bit warmer temperatures, though still below average. Upper trough continues its approach with chances for showers and thunderstorms increasing overnight over western/southern portions of the area. Instability remains on the lower side over our area so any thunderstorms that develop should remain tame. Chances for precipitation remain through the weekend as trough settles over the area and opens keeping broad cyclonic flow over the area.
Temperatures will continue near seasonal normals, with highs today mainly in the lower to mid 90s and lows tonight mainly in the lower to mid 70s.
Synoptic Setup: A hot high pressure heat dome lies over the western third of the CONUS and southern British Columbia. A much cooler trough drops down from the Hudson Bay through the northern plains and great lakes.
A stout mid level wave over the Upper Mississippi River Valley will force a surface cold front into northern portions of the forecast area by this afternoon.
For today, the Great Lakes trough will move eastward during the day, and drag a cold front through the region.
As each day passes more drier air is expected to be advected into the region due to the parent low pressure system off the California coast.
By late tonight and early Sat latest model guidance shows another round of precip forming near the coast mostly in response to the another weak impulse moving around the base of the main upper trof over the Mississippi river valley stretching east over the eastern conus. Lows tonight will range from the lower 70s for inland areas mostly north of the I-10 corridor and the middle 70s further south stretching to the immediate coast.
255 AM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017 The cold front which pushed through the CWA last night has allowed northwest flow to take hold. Friday night, the high will push off to the east and Southerly flow will return.
306 AM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017 Early morning water vapor imagery clearly shows the center of the upper low over northern Wisconsin, with very little progress of the western extent of the clouds overnight. The upper low will make progress eastward by late morning and pull the cloud cover and associate showers with it to the east. Breezy northwest winds of 10-15 MPH are expected for today, but 850H temps will warm to 8-10C as 500H heights continue to rise as the low pushes east. So, with mixing heights around 850H, highs today in the low 70s should be common for most, with a few spots getting into the mid 70s. Another cool night in store with lows in the low to mid 50s. Thus, keeping our region slightly cooler than normal and mainly dry.
An upper level low pressure system digging across the Great Lakes today will help to advance a surface cold front across the area. The cold front should push south of the region by this evening with a cooler and drier airmass filtering south.
324 AM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017 Cold front over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois will continue moving away from the area. Strong cold advection behind the front will bring below normal temperatures as much as 10 to 15 degrees cooler than Thursday's highs. High pressure centered over central Nebraska will move southeast through the period. The center of the high should move across the southern 1/2 of the forecast area between 06-12Z tonight.
305 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017 Showers and thunderstorms are expected later today with a crossing cold front.
152 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017 A cold front will approach the region from the northwest on Friday and bring a good chance for showers and thunderstorms to the region, especially west of the Blue Ridge, late Friday afternoon into Friday night. High pressure will then bring fair and somewhat cooler weather for the first part of the weekend.
314 AM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017 The cold front was just entering the northwest border of our region as of 08Z.
308 AM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017 Blocking pattern over the wrn CONUS continues to keep us under nw flow aloft. Upper low over nrn MI will continue to dive sewd today, trailing a cold front into our region. Front is fcst to stall today, as the upper low quickly departs and the front loses its swd push.
610 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017 Much cooler and drier air will overspread the area today as an intense upper level disturbance pivots through the northern Great Lakes. Cold frontal boundary currently bisecting the cwa sw-ne and will continue ewd through nw OH by mid morning. Lake based thermal trough maximizes this aftn and given residual low level theta-e/lake based instability contribution will reinsert tsra mention. Otherwise broad sfc ridging follows across the srn lakes through mid period as seasonably cool temps persist within larger scale w-nw flow regime aloft.
Closer to the ridge axis locales are mainly calm with the aforementioned partly cloudy to clear skies. A lee-side trough will set up over the Front Range.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to push south today across eastern Oklahoma with cold front.
526 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017 A deep layered ridge of high pressure is dominating much of the South Florida and the Keys this morning. Forecast reasoning has not changed much over the past couple of cycles, with the Western Atlantic ridge of high pressure remaining across central Florida today, keeping the Keys on the southwestern periphery.
551 AM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017 Early morning water vapor imagery clearly shows the center of the upper low over northern Wisconsin, with very little progress of the western extent of the clouds overnight. The upper low will make progress eastward by late morning and pull the cloud cover and associate showers with it to the east. Breezy northwest winds of 10-15 MPH are expected for today, but 850H temps will warm to 8-10C as 500H heights continue to rise as the low pushes east. So, with mixing heights around 850H, highs today in the low 70s should be common for most, with a few spots getting into the mid 70s. Another cool night in store with lows in the low to mid 50s. Thus, keeping our region slightly cooler than normal and mainly dry.
Upper low centered over Wisconsin this morning will start to edge east later today.
The cold front remains in southern Missouri but is expected to move south tonight and Friday. A cold front continues across northern Oklahoma and southern Missouri.
231 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017 A cold front will push through the area today, bringing showers through the area, with a chance for thunderstorms in especially the eastern forecast area.
112 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017 VFR conditions are expected to continue through the night and morning, with the chance of thunderstorms increasing at all sites in the afternoon as a cold front approaches the area from the northwest.
/Issued 306 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017/ High pressure persist over the western CONUS and broad low pressure remains over the eastern CONUS. Convection is increasing along a stalled cold front now located just north of the I40 corridor. Latest mesoanalysis does suggest a swath of MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg along the front, and 500mb temperatures are cooler at around -8 degrees C, so can't rule out some isolated low end severe hail producers with any storm that is able to become multicellular or with any brief mesocyclonic development. There may be a lull in activity on Friday except for any isolated convection that moves off the higher terrain into our western zones in the evening and any left over convection from the overnight activity in the southern/eastern zones in the morning.
202 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017 Much cooler and drier air will overspread the area today as an intense upper level disturbance pivots through the northern Great Lakes. Cold frontal boundary currently bisecting the cwa sw-ne and will continue ewd through nw OH by mid morning. Lake based thermal trough maximizes this aftn and given residual low level theta-e/lake based instability contribution will reinsert tsra mention. Otherwise broad sfc ridging follows across the srn lakes through mid period as seasonably cool temps persist within larger scale w-nw flow regime aloft.
329 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017 A strong area of low pressure will push a cold front through the area later today and this evening. High pressure will bring cooler and drier air for the weekend. Also, the upper low pulls northeast so the forecast area slowly loses the favorable jet.
403 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017 A strong area of low pressure will push a cold front through the area later today and this evening. High pressure will bring cooler and drier air for the weekend. Also, the upper low pulls northeast so the forecast area slowly loses the favorable jet.
A mid level ridge at 500 mbs will extend from far south FL to the NW Bahamas with southwest flow aloft across the forecast area. Highs will reach the lower 90s coast to lower to mid 90s for the interior. The Atlantic Ridge set on being bullish and territorial over the weekend with assistance from ridging aloft. The axis of the low level ridge will stay north of Central FL early to mid week. SE/S flow to 10-15 knots around the Atlc ridge expected with seas 2-3 ft. Winds will be S/SSE 10-15 knots as flow curves around western periphery of the Atlantic Ridge. A general persistency to the low-level synoptic pattern will offer prevailing SE winds 10-15 knots and reinforced seas up to 4 ft.
This system has sent a cold front southward into our area.
A cold front will move across the area late tonight.
1101 PM MDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Western CONUS upper ridge is putting the northern plains in northwest flow, and an upper low as pushing into the Great Lakes. Winds are generally northerly around 10 kts, and temperatures behind yesterday's cold front are only in the 60s. Temperatures will warm into the lower 80s.
400 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017 Two distinctive factors impacting todays weather across the forecast area, stalled frontal boundary across south Georgia and the cold front approaching from the northwest. Not a whole lot of upper support across the north as the main short wave remains well north of the region, however the associated cold front is still expected to move into north Georgia by late in the day.
321 AM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017 Awesome weather expected today with high pressure across the area. High pressure shifts to the east tonight allowing return southerly flow to develop.
Breezy northwest winds in the wake of departing strong low pressure will keep high temperatures today more typical of mid to late September than early August.
254 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017 Scattered showers and thunderstorms today, some strong, out ahead of a cold front. Cooler and less humid for the weekend behind the front. An upper trough, and strong cold front, across central IL at 07Z, will move into the region today, with showers and thunderstorms developing across the area, particularly this afternoon and evening during peak heating hours.
522 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017 Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase later today with a crossing cold front.
558 AM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017 Current surface analysis places broad high pressure over the northern and central plains. Upper level analysis places a ridge over the Pacific and low over western Wisconsin. Northwest flow remains over our area, though a compact low/trough sliding through the flow is now passing over Alberta. This will result in a bit warmer temperatures, though still below average. Upper trough continues its approach with chances for showers and thunderstorms increasing overnight over western/southern portions of the area. Instability remains on the lower side over our area so any thunderstorms that develop should remain tame. Chances for precipitation remain through the weekend as trough settles over the area and opens keeping broad cyclonic flow over the area.
For today, drier and warmer air aloft will be coupled with warmer low level air returning on southeast winds over the plains.
With relatively dry air and near calm winds due to resident high pressure, potential exists for some fog formation in the early morning hours. Winds will decrease under the high but currently thinking they might stay up just enough to inhibit any fog development following the area's recent rainfall. Depending on how much winds die down, temperatures could drop a bit lower than currently forecast also (down into the upper 40s), especially across central and eastern North Dakota closest to the main ridge axis. High pressure will remain in control of the region on Friday with plenty of sunshine (especially early) with highs reaching into the 70s. Long wave ridge off the west coast shifts onshore. Long wave trough retrogrades slightly over eastern North America. Cold front is expected to move through Tue.
203 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017 A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread slowly E overnight in response to available moisture and increasing overall ascent on the eastern flank of the eastward digging upper trough moving into Wisconsin. The upper trough's associated cold front will increase shower/storm chances during the day as it approaches.
512 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017 Warm and more humid conditions will prevail today until a strong cold front moves through tonight, bringing cooler and drier conditions for the weekend. Storms may persist after dark (00-06z Sat) given degree of large-scale ascent with vigorous upper level system and seasonably strong surface cold front. Models are in good agreement with an unseasonably strong cold front on the doorstep of western PA by late Friday afternoon. The area is outlooked for a SLIGHT risk of severe storms, and at first glance it looks like the main cold front will be entering the region after max heating with waning instability. But the guidance is hinting at a pre-frontal trough developing over west-central PA which is used to act as a focus for developing convection during the afternoon.
Highs near previous forecast from the lower 80s western sandhills, with upper 70s from the central sandhills to the northeast. This area will be in closer proximity to the high plains storms developing early evening, and where the best instability (0-3km CAPES) reaches 500- 1000 j/kg in the western Sandhills by late evening.
651 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017 Brief deterioration in cigs to MVFR possible along a cold front this morning before cold advection deepens the mixed layer. Last evening's convection in advance of potent early August cold front and upper wave was diminishing in intensity early this morning. Additional thunderstorms continue to develop on the outflow of this convection and then back toward the actually cold front and upper wave in northwest Lower MI. Chance POPs for showers look good for this time period with the highest across the Tri Cities and Thumb Region.
That being said, the wave will contain a decent amount of QG forcing this evening as a strong cold front drives through to generate a round of showers and thundestorms. Ahead of this front, today will be warmer and drier with humidities falling into the upper teens to lower 20s.
130 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017 After scattered diurnal thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, a cold front will bring more numerous thunderstorms Friday into Friday night. Cooler and less humid for the weekend. For Friday, models are in pretty good agreement on a significant cold front headed our way.
342 AM MDT Fri Aug 4 2017 Another Canadian cold front will drop south through the area this weekend, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms and gradually lower temperatures from north to south.
/Today through Tonight/ 7z surface analysis shows a zone of high pressure located over Nebraska with a deepening low pressure over northern Lake Michigan. Otherwise, the day will start with plenty of sunshine and scattered fair weather cumulus will develop later this morning through the afternoon as high pressure slides southeastward into the Ozarks today. Winds will lessen this evening as the high shifts from the Ozarks into the Lower Ohio Valley.
Northwest flow will be found above western Kansas with an upper level low over the Great Lakes and an upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest and Mexico. Towards the surface, a dome of high pressure will slide east of the area this morning shifting winds from the northeast to south southeast by this afternoon. As for temperatures, highs today are expected to rise into the low 80s with lows tonight dipping into the low to mid 60s.
On Friday, warmer and somewhat drier conditions spread across the region as low level southerly flow strengthens by midday, especially across the eastern plains. Tsra chances over the far sern plains look rather low, though one or two storms could fire along the lee trough just east of I-25 by early evening. Friday evening most of the thunderstorm activity will be over the mountain areas though a few my drift off into the adjacent plains and may fire along the surface trof axis.
Today it is indicating convection firing over the central and southern mountains between 11 am and Noon MDT with activity increasing through the afternoon hours over most of our ridges.
156 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017 A weak low pressure trough will linger over the area tonight, then dissipate Friday.
Strong low pressure will continue to push east of the area today. Moisture wrapping around the low will keep a mix of IFR/MVFR CIGS across the area into the early afternoon. Breezy northwest winds in the wake of departing strong low pressure will keep high temperatures today more typical of mid to late September than early August.
Expect this trend to continue as increasing southwesterly flow spills over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys downstream of a potent upper low churning across central Wisconsin. A cold front was stretched from the eastern shores of Lake Michigan southeast to Saint Louis as of 4 a.
Strong high pressure surface and aloft will continue to hold over west central and southwest Florida through the remainder of the week.
/issued 350 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017/ (Tonight and Thursday) Southwest flow aloft will prevail across the area the next 24 hours, ahead of a large upper level trough over the southern Rockies. 24 (Thursday night through next Wednesday) By Thursday night an upper low will be moving south over northern New Mexico resulting in a southwest flow aloft over the forecast area.
KVCT may flirt with some TEMPO IFR cigs after midnight given how much cooler they have remained all day/lower inversion starting point. As the first upper low kicks out across the Upper Midwest tonight, the next deeper upper low over the Intermountain West will move toward the Four Corners region Thursday and Thursday night. But the GFS shows a mid level thermal trough at 70H moving into the Brush Country Thursday afternoon. Models indicate a weak short wave trough moving out of northeast Mexico during the afternoon. Winds will increase over the coastal plains Thursday as low pressure area deepens over the southern plains.
1141 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017 The first of two upper level lows is currently tracking northeast across the region. Rain is covering much of the Sandhills and north central NEB this afternoon in deformation area on immediate west side of the upper low which is centered in eastern Nebraska. As the low tracks northeast away from the area this evening, drier air in the mid levels will end the precipitation early. Otherwise, the next upper low will be centered across northern Utah by early Thursday morning and will move slowly to near the the CO/UT border by late afternoon. This will keep the surface flow from the northeast, which will advect cooler air in from the northern plains.
Rain will change to snow across the higher elevations of the Black Hills, but accumulations tonight will be minimal. Lows will range from the lower 30s in the Hills to the lower 40s across south central SD. On Thursday, western low pressure system will shift into CO. As cooler air wraps into the region Thursday night, lows will dip into the lower 30s across northeastern WY and the Black Hills, and the continuing precipitation will mix with and change to snow.
/issued 335 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017/ A potent upper level low pressure system continues to lift northeast towards the Upper Mississippi River Valley this afternoon. The upper level ridge of the southeastern U. states will attempt to rebuild northwestward on Thursday behind the departing upper low.
551 PM MDT Wed May 17 2017 A strong upper level low pressure system will move southward from southern Idaho into northern Utah tonight.
A more robust warming trend will take place through late week and into the upcoming weekend as high pressure builds along the coast.
Although, a more consolidated area of moderate to heavy rainfall moving out of FSD's CWA will likely affect the southeast counties later this evening as the low continues to move north-northeast.
Forecast highlights in the short term period will be cooler temperatures with frost tonight, and mainly dry conditions. Tonight the dry high pressure center moves south, with the dry air with dewpoints in the 30s moving south into North Dakota. Clearing skies, light northeast/north winds and dry air moving in will allow temperatures to drop into the low to mid 30s over western and most of central North Dakota.
815 PM EDT Wed May 17 2017 High pressure will maintain dry weather and above normal temperatures through the remainder of the work week. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase by late in the weekend as moisture increases ahead of an approaching cold front. An upper level ridge will remain over the area tonight. Upper level ridging will continue to extend across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the western Atlantic, as Bermuda high pressure remains firmly in place at the surface.
Low level high pressure ridging is in place over the southeast and mid-Atlantic states, with local low level flow from the southeast.
04 Cloudy skies w/ southerly winds through the overnight hours around the backside of the ridge. this should hold morning lows in the low to mid 70s. Have seen rather breezy southerlies and that will remain the case over the next few days as the surface pressure gradient remains tight between strong high pressure ridging across the southeast CONUS and low pressure redeveloping along a stalled boundary over the south plains.
South winds that gusted up to 30 knots this afternoon will only slowly subside tonight thanks to the upper level low that was moving from the northern plains toward the Great Lakes.
After potentail convective severe event this afternoon and evening, a reprieve with cooler conditions on Thu. Then the next main upstream large cut-off upper low will roll out to the upper Midwest for a wet end to the week and start to the weekend.