Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
234 PM MDT Thu Aug 10 2017 A series of cool low pressure troughs moving across the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies and Southern Canada will converge with warmer moist southwest flow on the west side of a flat high pressure ridge over the Desert Southwest and Great Basin, over Wyoming.
At the surface, low pressure was over central Wisconsin with a cold front stretching southwestward. Cooler air will arrive overnight as high pressure over Saskatchewan this afternoon drops southeastward into the upper Midwest. Lows were adjusted from initial Superblend guidance by a degree or two and on the cooler side of available guidance. Meanwhile at the surface a high pressure ridge will build in from the north on Friday night, then shift eastward and remain anchored over the Great Lakes region through the weekend, with Iowa on the western periphery of the ridge.
The high pressure system responsible will move east of the area on Friday, allowing a low pressure system to approach.
/issued 900 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017/ An upper trough and its/s surface reflection over the southern 1/3 of FL and the Bahamas this morning ease westward today. This moisture along with lift from the upper trough and afternoon sea breeze circulations.
A wave of low pressure is expected to move along the old boundary early on Friday.
Will need some convection to fire off over the higher terrain and push east to erode the cap and allow for convection over the plains. This will help provide lift early this afternoon for storms that fire off the high terrain. A cold front will push south across northeast Colorado early this afternoon. Later arrival of the cold front will allow for more heating and a little better instability. High temperatures today are expected to be cooler due to cloud cover and a cooler airmass moving in behind the cold front. Storms will likely initiate off the higher terrain than spread into the adjacent plains.
That said, looking at the models for the short term, see another good chance for some strong to isolated severe thunderstorms this afternoon and a possible MCS development off the high plains.
311 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017 A cold front is moving into far northwestern MO early this afternoon and will continue to move southward through the evening and overnight hours. With drier air moving in behind the front it should be relatively comfortable day with highs in the low to mid 80s and middle 60 degree dewpoints.
Skies will be partly sunny with high temperatures will reach the lower to mid 80s in valley locations.
331 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017 At 3 PM, a cold front extended from Ontongan Michigan to Madison Wisconsin to Kirksville Missouri. These were associated with a low pressure system over northern Wisconsin. 12z models are in agreement that these showers and storms on the southern periphery of this low will gradually sink south into the Interstate 90 corridor late this afternoon and then dissipate with the loss of diurnal heating this evening. On Friday, a trough will move southeast across northern and eastern Wisconsin.
233 PM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 Upper level trough crosses while warmer and more humid air arrives from the south.
At the surface, cold front extends from northern MO and across far northern KS. Storms have developed along the cold front over nw KS, likely aided by upslope processes. Some of this may linger into Sun as the atmosphere remains very moist in the low levels.
Otherwise high pressure builds into the fa for quiet and relatively cool conditions tonight and Friday. High pressure will continue to be in control of the region to start the weekend.
Highs on Friday will be mainly in the lower 80s. The forecast period begins with a cold front near the Kentucky/Virginia border.
Showers, and possibly an evening thunderstorm cannot be ruled out tonight, but the higher PoPs will shift into the eastern reaches of my area, as the moisture convergence heads toward Central Pennsylvania. Low-level convergence will once again develop, but it will be confined to the ridges, between southerly flow around an offshore low and another cyclone over the Great Lakes. Continued with low likely PoPs over the ridges during the afternoon, due to the continued increase in moisture convergence and the intrusion of large scale ascent.
Upper high was located over west Texas with the associated ridge axis southeast to upper Texas coast over northwest Gulf.
Only seeing the occasional lightning strike with the lack of shear, forcing, and higher freezing level heights so we carry isolated thunder wording through the late night hours. Mid-level ridging noses closer and we do decrease PWATs a bit, but don't get your hopes up it'll still feel like you are walking around in a sauna. The High Risk of rip currents and Coastal Flood Advisory also remains in effect through Friday morning.
Meanwhile any storms in the southeast will be a combination of outflow boundaries from Louisiana convection and also focused along a weak warm frontal boundary lifting north through Arkansas today.
232 PM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 High pressure will remain just east of the area through Friday.
Low pressure in W Upper will continue to the east before sagging southeast into N Lake Michigan by 15z/Fri with the 500 mb low chasing it across Lake Superior overnight.
144 PM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 Returning moisture on southerly flow around departing high pressure will combine with a weak disturbance aloft to produce a few showers and thunderstorms today, mainly east of I-71. On Friday, a weak cold front will approach, providing yet another chance of showers and storms as higher humidity and warm temperatures remain.
Look for only minor changes from day-to-day through the forecast period as a trough of low pressure remains off the coast. A weak upper low over extreme NW California has brought convection to our north, with a handful of lightning strikes detected just off the coast of Eureka earlier this morning. This will warrant a shift in the regional syntopic scale pattern as a cooler, deeper, more organized low pressure system descends from the Gulf of Alaska to replace the aforementioned blocking pattern.
306 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017 The latest surface observations indicate the presence of a warm front across north Mississippi this afternoon. Latest H5 analysis depicts the region beneath a trough axis, with an upper low centered over Wisconsin. The upper trough will not move much during the forecast period, providing several chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout. The warm front will lift north across the area tonight ahead of a cold front which will impact the region tomorrow. Highs will be similar to today, with the exception being in northwestern counties as the front will likely keep them a bit cooler.
Scattered thunderstorms will also be possible overnight along a cold front that will move southeast through the area.
1217 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017 Cold front continues to pivot through the area tonight. This front is being driven southward by a well developed upper trough over the eastern Dakotas.
Cool high pressure stretching from north of New England into the deep south will begin to lift northeast this afternoon allowing for the gradient to begin relaxing and thus a decrease in winds.
Wed & Wed Night: Temps will begin to recover as the weakening high pressure center drifts just east of KS to enable southerly winds (albeit 5 to 15 mph) to return. This would drag a cold front SE across most of KS late Sat Night & Sun Morning. Winds will remain gusty throughout the daylight hours, decreasing a bit this evening and especially late tonight as ridge axis gets closer.
Across northeast Kansas, temperatures in the mid-30s have allowed most precipitation to fall in the form of rain or freezing rain as wet bulb temperatures are reached at the surface. Accumulations from a trace to an inch are expected as the system continues to move south out of the area, with the highest snowfall expected in central and east central Kansas where freezing temperatures may catch up to the heaviest precipitation. With freezing temperatures progged to move into the area by sunrise, any wet surfaces may freeze causing slick roads and hazardous travel conditions.
Current temperatures in the lower 30s should fall into the upper teens and 20s by this afternoon. A deep and elongated upper trough will extend from the Great Lakes into the High Plains Tuesday morning. By Tuesday evening the upper trough will be migrating east out of the region. Low temperatures should be a little warmer, especially over far southwest Kansas where the effects of the warm advection will be noticed first.
A clipper type low pressure system will move into the area late tonight and bring some light snow into Tuesday. Not expecting this low level moisture to mix out this afternoon and may expand northward into the Finger Lakes by midday. Weak high pressure overhead this morning as a southwest warm advection flow develops later today into Tuesday ahead of a clipper dropping into the lakes. Prolonged overrunning pattern develops as the positively tilted upper trof is slow to move through. Temps surface and aloft are cold enough for snow, but surface temps will continue to creep up and may approach the freezing mark in some place on Tuesday. Light winds under high pressure today will generally become southerly tonight into Tuesday but with a weak pressure field, will be less than 10 mph.
High pressure will dominate the area today with light northeasterly surface winds and mostly sunny skies. High temperatures are expected to range from the lower 50s across the northern areas to the mid and upper 50s across the southern areas.
There are indications that parts of our northwest and Plateau counties could reach 2 inches, while our far southern counties will tend to be on the lower end of the range. Models have been consistent over the past few days with the approaching cold front and expected snowfall amounts. We do not expect any freezing rain or sleet.
Water vapor loop indicated an upper low over northern MN. The upper low is forecast to move over Lake michigan by 12Z Tue. Tuesday night will see winds turn to the southwest and rising temps overnight as 500mb ridging allows an airmass of pacific origin to move over the northern plains.
540 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018 MVFR ceilings will arrive from the north this morning behind a cold front. /issued 535 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018/ MVFR ceilings will arrive from the north this morning behind a cold front. Later today there remains a chance for light freezing rain, sleet, or snow to change to snow this evening in southeastern Oklahoma as the wave exits that region. The cold front that will pass coincidentally will bring in much colder air today. Maximum temperatures in north central OK will be aroudn 20 degrees while southwest Oklahoma will be just below freezing.
1043 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 Update A slow moving low pressure system will bring occasional snow through Tuesday. Widespread, generally light, snow expected to persist today as upper low currently over MN continues dropping to the south- southeast.
Currently, the center of the arctic high was over central Saskatchewan, with the arctic cold front well south of ND approaching the southern plains states. Temperatures across ND ranged from -15F to -5F, and -30F to -20F in the high center in Saskatchewan. The high continues southeast tonight reaching eastern SD by daybreak Tuesday. Northwest winds should continue across ND today as the high pushes into the state, with gusty northwest winds of around 20 mph in south central ND and the James Valley and east creating more areas of drifting snow and patchy blowing snow. Winds will diminish during the afternoon as the high center approaches western ND. This is a favored position of the high for the coldest period in western and central ND.
A cold front will move southward across the area early Tuesday bringing a chance of light precipitation mainly from Fresno county northward.
958 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 Dry and cool Canadian high pressure will remain in control of the region into Tuesday.
1000 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 Surface pressure gradient will remain tight today with 915 MHZ Cape Wind profilers showing N-NNE winds to 20-25 knots in the lowest 3000 ft. Highs will reach the lower 60s north of Sanford to the mid 60s central and upper 60s across Martin county.
At the surface, high pressure builds over the eastern seaboard and southeastern U.
A strong cold front will bring a shot of snow to several terminals across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through 18-21Z. /Issued 327 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018/ Leading edge of the cold front has pushed to near the KS/OK border with an expansive area of post-frontal precipitation across KS into southwestern MO. HRRR/HRRRX remain consistent in showing the highest snowfall totals across far northeast OK where around 1-2" will be possible with some isolated 3" amounts not out of the question.
537 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018 Strong high pressure is building our way from southern Saskatchewan and northeastern MT, while low pressure continues to exit across WI/IL. This high will sink across central SD around daybreak Tuesday, and keep a ridge over our eastern counties during the day Tuesday while it moves into eastern KS. Have continued their mention in the forecast by keeping an area of higher cloud cover, as well as at least a small area of flurries over eastern Stanley and portions of northern Jones/Lyman Counties, downwind of the warmer open water. However, did break up the WSW and HWO to mention timing of the the lowest/most dangerous wind chill values. Deep trof over the eastern conus gets pushed east as energy crashes the western conus ridge.
859 AM MST Mon Jan 15 2018 Low stratus and freezing fog persist across western portions of the North-central plains this morning. Roads remain icy following last night's freezing drizzle. PN Areas of fog with patchy light freezing drizzle and flurries will diminish this morning, as a Canadian cold front weakens over the region. High pressure aloft will then keep skies mostly clear beginning this afternoon and continuing into Tuesday. The band of freezing drizzle/flurries/low clouds/fog from KCTB southeast through KGTF, KHLN and KLWT as of 12Z will continue to weaken as it moves southwest into the mountain areas of southwest Montana.
With temperatures now below freezing in the wake of the cold front across the region, some slick spots may occur along with some freezing drizzle that may mix in at times. /Issued 351 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018/ Closed upper low over the upper Midwest today will allow for a backdoor cold front to surge south and west this morning across the Panhandles. Light snow or flurries will accompany the low clouds behind the frontal boundary this morning through early this evening with the greatest probability mainly across the western Oklahoma and northwest Texas Panhandles today into this evening before ending later tonight.
and Tuesday An upper low and inverted surface trof will continue to produce steady light snow away from Lake Michigan during the day, followed by a decreasing trend during the late afternoon and evening.
Freezing temperatures will quickly work from North to South during the overnight. In addition our high temperatures will be below freezing for Tuesday conditions will not be quick to improve on those elevated bridges.
1034 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 High pressure persists along the spine of the Appalachians, driving northeast winds and cooler air through the Florida Keys. From synopsis, a ridge of high pressure from eastern Canada to the northern Gulf Coast, will slide east into the western North Atlantic tonight and Tuesday.
Forecasted snow accums from 12z today into Tue AM is 3-7 inches for the lake counties with ern Sheboygan County experiencing the highest amounts. Medium Mid level trough axis shifts to the east.
/Issued 351 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018/ Closed upper low over the upper Midwest today will allow for a backdoor cold front to surge south and west this morning across the Panhandles. Light snow or flurries will accompany the low clouds behind the frontal boundary this morning through early this evening with the greatest probability mainly across the western Oklahoma and northwest Texas Panhandles today into this evening before ending later tonight.
906 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 A clipper will round the Lower Great Lakes today before weakening as it pulls away Tuesday. High pressure from south- central Canada will make its way to the mid-Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys for mid week. Weakening low is slow to exit and toward the end of Tuesday afternoon wrap around moisture/trough will be nearing northwest OH. As far as temperatures go, enough warm advection will bring temperatures up into the lower/mid 20s today. A trough will swing across Lake Erie on Tuesday night with increasing low level moisture. Would expect some snow showers to accompany the trough but Lake Erie is mostly iced over except for the far eastern end so moisture flux will be greatly limited.
Otherwise the region will be under the influence of high pressure today and much of Tuesday. This will also result in inversions in the lower valleys of the NR. The ridge will break down as a weak disturbance passes through the area late Tuesday afternoon and night. This system will weaken as it moves through the ridge.
536 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018 /12Z TAFS/ All 5 terminals will start out at VFR conditions before deteriorating later today as a strong cold front moves through the region. Light rain that transitions to a mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow is possible for all of the terminals. /issued 517 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018/ (Today and Tonight) The main story for today and tonight is the passage of a strong cold front which will bring in much colder temperatures and a chance for wintry precipitation.
/Issued 419 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2018/ Main focus is on the back portion of the fcst period (later Tuesday) given the increasing potential for some light accumulating snow with a fairly deep zone of moisture interacting with another strong cold front and amplifying trough to the west.
411 AM MST Mon Jan 15 2018 Areas of fog with patchy light freezing drizzle and flurries will diminish this morning, as a Canadian cold front weakens over the region. High pressure aloft will then keep skies mostly clear beginning this afternoon and continuing into Tuesday.
High pressure over the region will give way to a weak disturbance brushing the southern Sierra and central Nevada Tuesday with a slight chance of light rain or high elevation snow.
A low pressure system will bring accumulating snow to the area today. High pressure is expected for the mid to late parts of the week. Upper low currently drifting southeast through northern Minnesota is expected to drift into the Great Lakes region by this evening.
655 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 High pressure will linger over the region through Tuesday.
A highly amplified upper ridge presently residing across the western U.
with clouds increasing overnight ahead of a cold front. Chattanooga Airport, TN 46 27 32 13 / 10 10 50 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 42 26 31 12 / 10 10 70 50 Oak Ridge, TN 43 27 28 12 / 10 10 70 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 40 23 35 13 / 10 10 60 50 NC.
535 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018 MVFR ceilings will arrive from the north this morning behind a cold front. Later today there remains a chance for light freezing rain, sleet, or snow to change to snow this evening in southeastern Oklahoma as the wave exits that region. The cold front that will pass coincidentally will bring in much colder air today. Maximum temperatures in north central OK will be aroudn 20 degrees while southwest Oklahoma will be just below freezing.
Most of the area will see highs in the single digits above and below zero today, with western foothills being a bit warmer in the teens and 20s. By Tuesday afternoon ridging continues to build in from the west with warmer air aloft scouring out low level arctic air. However, the ensembles indicated uncertainty with how the system's trough develops and progresses with time, and the GFS and ECMWF also showed differences with the system.
Areas of fog with patchy light freezing drizzle and flurries will diminish this morning, as a Canadian cold front weakens over the region. High pressure aloft will then keep skies mostly clear beginning this afternoon and continuing into Tuesday.
An upper level low is currently spreading south across Minnesota early this morning. Temperatures across southeastern Kansas into far southwest Missouri have warmed into the low to middle 30s, with temperatures in the 20s farther to the east across the area. As the upper level low continues to spread south, temperatures in the lower levels of the atmosphere will cool and the warm nose should go away fairly quickly early this morning. Temperatures this afternoon will fall into the teens with wind chills dropping to around zero as gusty northerly winds occur behind the cold front.
Large pressure/height gradients on the backside of the upper Midwest cyclone will translate to blustery northwest winds today, which in turn will promote continued low-level cold advection. As such, we have trended warmer with overnight lows with values ranging from around -10 near the SD border with -6 to -8 across much of the remainder of our area.
921 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 High pressure north of the region will keep a north-northeast wind flow in place through today. High pressure north of the region will keep a north-northeast wind flow in place across the waters through the next couple of days.
Continued dry and mild today as axis of upper ridge passes directly overhead. By sunrise Tuesday the first of a series of Pacific troughs will move inland to central Oregon with a chance of light rain as far east as Harney County. Forecast temperature profiles support a slight chance of freezing rain in northern Harney County early Tuesday morning, increasing to a chance of freezing rain in northern Malheur County and extreme southwest Idaho by sunrise as the trough moves in. The freezing rain may present travel problems on US 20 in eastern Oregon but will let the day crew decide on a possible winter weather adviroy there.
High pressure will then move into the region allowing for several days of dry weather with a gradual warming trend. We will have a brief lull in the snow across portions of eastern forecast until more snow moves from west to east across the forecast area this afternoon ahead of a cold front. A cold front will move through the area this evening into tonight. High amplitude positively tilted trough will swing across the region early in the period. Thereafter, upper flow will become flatter with ridging developing over the weekend.
445 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018 Light mainly east to southeast winds early this morning will become mainly southeast and increase a bit during the day today as high pressure continues moving off to the east. This flow will bring warmer temperatures, increasing cloud cover and maybe some afternoon and evening showers to the area. The strong arctic cold front will enter our northern counties late this evening (probably before midnight) and will then race to the coast and be offshore before sunrise. Drying can be expected from the north overnight as strong high pressure builds into the area, but there is a risk for the wintry mix to continue across parts of our central and southern counties.
An impressive, cold upper level low pressure dropping south early this morning through MN was driving cold air in the low levels southward. By tonight, clouds should begin to erode from west to east as cold high pressure settles into central SD.
As for the higher terrain areas light snow will focus mainly on the east facing slopes thru midday. Fairly strong northerly flow aloft on Tuesday will gradually decrease becoming weak by Tuesday night as an upper ridge moves into Colorado.
517 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018 (Today and Tonight) (Today and Tonight) The main story for today and tonight is the passage of a strong cold front which will bring in much colder temperatures and a chance for wintry precipitation.