Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1136 AM CST Thu Jan 21 2021 Temperatures this morning are quite mild for a January morning, but that will change this afternoon as a low pressure system north of the Great Lakes drags a cold front across the forecast area. The winds will begin to decrease late in the afternoon and continue to decrease overnight as high pressure builds in behind the front. Friday looks to be a beautiful mid winter day with light northwest winds and cold high pressure giving us plenty of sun. Highs will be mainly in the low to mid teens, except near the Buffalo Ridge where some low 20s look possible.
259 PM CST Thu Jan 21 2021 Light rain associated with a cold front sinking south is continuing across our southern counties in MS. High pressure builds in with rain ending by around 17Z Friday.
1137 AM CST Thu Jan 21 2021 A weak cold front is slowly pushing through the area early this morning; however, the front has washed out quite a bit making it difficult to determine its exact position.
1118 AM CST Thu Jan 21 2021 Another dry but weak trough looks to move south across KS today, with compressional heating ahead of the front leading to another above normal temperature day. A reinforcing secondary cold front will move south across the area tonight, which will lead to much cooler temperatures moving into the area tonight into Fri. Warm advection associated with the low pressure area, suggests this will be a rain chance for most locations as surface temperatures climb above seasonal normals.
200 PM EST Thu Jan 21 2021 Upper level low pressure system will continue to slide east across the Great Lakes region into Ontario, with a trailing frontal boundary stretching southwest through the Western Great Lakes. This frontal boundary will arrive across Central Indiana this evening, with high pressure then returning to the Ohio Valley for Friday. This evening will feature a return to more of a quasi- northwesterly flow in the low-levels, with longwave pattern indicating some height falls aloft and weak troughing returning to the Ohio Valley. But with the quasi-zonal orientation to the 500mb wave, expect some surface ridging to maintain minimal cloud cover but with cooler air sinking south from the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest late tonight into Friday.
117 PM MST Thu Jan 21 2021 500mb RAP analysis and satellite imagery showed west-northwesterly flow across the High Plains early this afternoon. A cold front, associated with a system now based in eastern Canada, sags behind across the northern Plains and Rockies. A disturbance and the aforementioned cold front look to push south and east tonight into northern Nebraska. With troughing to our west, southerly winds are forecast at 10 to 20 mph. Temperatures will be somewhat cooler (highs in the 40s) under sunny to mostly sunny skies. Otherwise, temperatures fall into the low to mid 20s Friday night as clouds push in from the west.
As such, temperatures in the sunny northern areas have been able to warm into the upper 40s and lower 50s while areas to the south under lingering cloud cover are in the lower to mid 40s. Across northern portions of the area, skies should remain clearer, with some increasing cloud coverage possible around sunrise as a secondary cold front moves through. By tomorrow afternoon expect sunny skies across the entire area as Canadian high pressure builds in from the northwest. Under steady northwest flow, temperatures will be a bit cooler with highs in the mid 30s over southern IN to the mid 40s over southern KY. The first half of the weekend looks cool and dry as high pressure advances from the Midwest to the Upper Ohio Valley.
Excessive low-level cloudiness has kept much of the CWA on the cooler end of things this morning. Wouldn't be surprised if we stayed on the cooler side of things, especially along the Upper Cumberland where low-level cloudiness will likely persist through much of the day.
A few spots along the highway 20 corridor could have wind chills drop to -10F for a few hours into early Friday morning.
Clouds should also clear from west to east tomorrow, and temperatures rise into the low 70s in the Hill Country and mid to upper 70s elsewhere.
Models bring a dry cold front across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio River valleys tonight. Lows will range from the middle to upper 20s north to right around the freezing mark south. High pressure and dry air building in behind the front will provide sunny skies for Friday, with highs ranging from the middle to upper 30s north to 40 to 45 degrees south.
1030 AM CST Thu Jan 21 2021 Cold front sinking south from north dakota this morning was bringing low clouds along with flurries which were shown on several obs. A fast moving cold front is progged to push into the region from the north later today. Winds will die down this evening shortly after frontal passage, but passage of the cold front will drop our temps greatly for tonight.
128 PM EST Thu Jan 21 2021 Cold front brings reinforcement of cold airmass Friday.
250 PM CST Thu Jan 21 2021 A weak cold front moved through western NE this afternoon with increasing clouds across the panhandle and southwest. Highs will be coldest in the northeast at near 30 degrees, ranging in the lower 40s in far southwest NE. A positively tilted upper trough will extend across the Great Basin into the Rockies as a deep closed low extends over northern Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba. Light snow is forecast to develop ahead of this trough, in west southwest flow aloft from WY into northern NE and SD.
A band of rapidly propagating snow showers along the cold front have dropped visibility below one half mile during their passage. Strong winds enhanced by isallobaric forcing via a 4-5mb/3hr pressure rise bubble behind the cold front have resulted in wind gusts of 30-40 mph with the snow showers.
150 PM EST Thu Jan 21 2021 Cold front brings reinforcement of cold airmass Friday.
Cold front moving south quickly and is near New Rockford to Hillsboro to Bemidji. A cold front will drop quickly south through the area this morning, quickest down thru the Red River valley.
borsum Cold front has moved through the area and this will set up a few colder days ahead. At the same time, an upper low will drop into northern California and push moisture over the top of the colder air. Cold air not tremendously deep, so not expecting a great deal of snowfall here, but enough to accumulate for road impacts, especially with roads possible becoming quite slick with some freezing going on. Looking at generally 1-4 inches, with the higher amounts over the mountains and along the foothills, with the central zones (Billings) likely struggling to get a half inch or so. TWH Ensemble clusters showed a positively-tilted split trough over the western U.
This will finally begin to break by tomorrow afternoon as the deep layer ridge to our south relaxes slightly and a weak upper level trough pushes through the Southeast.
The 12z sounding at KEY continues to show a significant subsidence inversion based at around 930 mb this morning, owing to a dominant mid and upper-level ridge. High pressure centered over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to dominate the weather for the Florida Keys coastal waters.
1033 AM MST Thu Jan 21 2021 Moderate W-NW flow aloft across the region again today as old swrn cut-off low ejects well south of the state.
212 PM CST Thu Jan 21 2021 The upper trough currently over southern Arizona will move over the FA later tonight and will bring a cold front southward into the FA by sunrise tomorrow night. Stratus is expected behind the front and will help to keep temps behind the front on the cool side with current highs ranging from the mid/upper 40s across the southeastern Texas Panhandle to the low 60s across Yoakum county.
The frontal boundary continues to sink southward which will limit chances for rain to our southern counties and will diminish through tonight into early tomorrow morning as high pressure will build in from the north. Most sites are in the low to mid 40s and reporting light fog. Latest surface analysis places a low pressure system over Ontario, Canada with a cold front extending southwest through Michigan and back through southeast Missouri.
Previous discussion: In the near term, the western edge of the cloud shield associated with a low pressure system to the east will swing over the region.
230 PM EST Thu Jan 21 2021 Colder temperatures, chances for light lake effect snow showers, and clouds will return tonight into Friday behind a cold front.
222 PM EST Thu Jan 21 2021 High pressure over the region today will shift eastward as a weak front moves into northern Florida.
Went ahead and cancelled the High Wind Warning early as gradients continue to ease.
Cold front sinking south from north dakota this morning was bringing low clouds along with flurries which were shown on several obs. A fast moving cold front is progged to push into the region from the north later today. Winds will die down this evening shortly after frontal passage, but passage of the cold front will drop our temps greatly for tonight.
1032 AM MST Thu Jan 21 2021 09z surface analysis had high over southern AB with ridge poking into the Dakotas.
251 PM CST Thu Jan 21 2021 This afternoon, satellite imagery shows stratus and flurries spreading in from the southern Red River Valley, associated with a weak disturbance aloft, resolved as a backdoor cold front.
208 PM CST Thu Jan 21 2021 Water vapor imagery shows a mid/upper level low INVOF nrn Baja. In wake of said low/trof an assocd cold front will back door into the ne CWFA between 18Z-21Z Fri and eventually west of MAF/ODO-HOB by 03Z/Fri. Late Sun PM an upper low will be near the 4-Corners and 7h-5h winds will have increased to 30kts-90kts, respectively. There are some indications that the next upper low will be quickly approaching and that may continue the breezy-windy conditions Tue and/or Wed. Warmer signals Thur-Fri, but again may be accompanied by dry winds.
Precipitation along the northern edge (in our area) is not reaching the surface with reflectivity quite high aloft (>= ~15,000 ft AGL) and a relatively dry layer in the low to mid-levels. Since there are indications that cloud cover will remain somewhat persistent for some locations (similar to today), opted to trend toward the cooler end of the probabilistic data for tomorrow's highs.
347 PM EST Thu Jan 21 2021 A dry cold front moving through Friday morning will usher in cooler air, bringing temperatures back to near or below seasonal normals.
Aloft, the deepest part of an upper-level trough is expected to shift to roughly the same location as well through the same timeframe. A cold front will pass through the area early this evening, which will allow for some light snow shower or flurries along with continued cloud cover through roughly midnight. Friday: As the low continues to shift off to the east, high pressure will build eastward from the Plains. High temperatures will be below normal with most locations only warming into the low to mid teens above zero.
Light rain/drizzle has just about tapered off to the SE this late Thu morning following the passage of a cold front. As such, any surge of cooler/drier air behind the exiting front is displaced well to the N/W, in closer proximity to a reinforcing cold front from the OH Valley SW into the Midwest/mid Plains states. In any case, with low level flow remaining out of the SW/W, afternoon highs look to climb mainly into the lower 50s.
237 PM CST Thu Jan 21 2021 Cooler temperatures and flurries highlight the short term. Another cold front will swing through tomorrow morning.
A dry cold front will move through central NC this evening and then strengthen over the Deep South tonight. A secondary dry but stronger cold front will cross the region Friday night, followed by Canadian high pressure that will build across the middle Atlantic this weekend. This is exiting to the east, and with temperatures now warming well above freezing, anything remaining today across central NC should be liquid. This warm SW flow will allow temperatures to rise above average, but they will be kept down somewhat by the widespread mid and high level clouds, so continue to expect highs in the lower-50s north to upper-50s south. A dry cold front will move through central NC tonight, but enough cloud cover will still be around (particularly in the south) to keep lows above average as well, in the mid-to-upper-30s.
1041 AM CST Thu Jan 21 2021 Under quasi-zonal flow aloft and west-southwest flow at the surface and with significantly warmer morning temperatures, today is shaping up to be even warmer than yesterday. A dry cold front will move through the region overnight Thursday, and resulting northwest low level flow will bring stout CAA back to the region.
209 PM CST Thu Jan 21 2021 At 2 PM, a cold front was moving southeast through the Twin Cities. This cold front will move quickly southeast through our area this afternoon and early evening. While skies will be mainly clear tonight, the winds will likely keep the boundary layer mixed, so kept the low temperatures mainly in the single digits above zero. This will be the coldest day since Christmas Eve when the high temperatures ranged from 5 to 15 degrees. Cooler conditions are expected Friday night.
The afternoon and evening commute will need to be closely monitored as temperatures fall below freezing this evening.
Temperatures are trending towards highs about 5 to 10 F cooler than yesterday on the plains, which matches forecast temperatures. The low level wind and thickness fields show a weak cold front to get into the plains this morning/mid day. The low level winds will be upsloping through the day, with southeasterlies this evening before normal drainage patterns kick in by 06Z tonight.
At the surface, a cold front over Nebraska early this afternoon is progged to sink southward across the area tonight ushering in more seasonable air across the area on Friday. Morning clouds and fog were slow to mix out across far southeast Kansas and afternoon dewpoint temperatures around 40 may result in a brief period of fog this evening before the frontal boundary scours out the low level moisture by midnight or shortly thereafter. Light northerly low level flow will become more easterly during the day on Fri before returning to the southeast overnight as a mid/upper trough deepens across the Central Great Basin/Southwest states.
1124 AM CST Thu Jan 21 2021 (Today and tonight) An upper low, which is currently moving across the northern Baja region, will open into a trough as it shifts over southern Arizona/New Mexico this evening. With west-southwest winds, temperatures will be warmer today, with highs expected to be in the lower to mid 60s.
Weak high pressure will build into the area through early Friday.
250 PM EST Thu Jan 21 2021 High pressure over South Florida will drift southward into the Florida Keys on Friday, as a trough of low pressure moves east across the eastern United States and into the Atlantic waters. Lows tonight will be warmer compare to last night due to the south to southwest wind flow. Highs on Friday will also be warmer with upper 70s to near 80 degrees except mid 70s west coast metro areas of South Florida. An area of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern across South florida through the weekend allowing for dry conditions to continue.
Cloud cover will increases from north to south across southern Wisconsin this afternoon and evening ahead of an arctic cold front dropping south from northern Minnesota. However, into the evening we will front from the backside of the low drop through the region. Although the upper levels will lack moisture the low to mid levels are expected to moisten up with cool enough temperatures aloft to reach the DGZ in the low and mid levels. As high pressure pushes in Friday with upper level large scale ridging expect drier conditions Friday/Friday night.
Cold front will sag southward overnight, ending up just north of the I-10 corridor by Friday morning.
Some patches of high clouds will be moving over the area this evening but skies should be mainly clear later tonight with temperatures dropping into the lower to middle 20s.
203 PM MST Thu Jan 21 2021 Water vapor shows broad west/northwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains with upper low just offshore the Pac NW. At the surface, high pressure ridge continues to build into the Northern Plains with gusty northwest winds on the SD plains.
527 PM CST Thu Jan 21 2021 At 2 PM, a cold front was moving southeast through the Twin Cities. This cold front will move quickly southeast through our area this afternoon and early evening. While skies will be mainly clear tonight, the winds will likely keep the boundary layer mixed, so kept the low temperatures mainly in the single digits above zero. This will be the coldest day since Christmas Eve when the high temperatures ranged from 5 to 15 degrees. Cooler conditions are expected Friday night.
604 PM EST Thu Jan 21 2021 Colder temperatures, chances for light lake effect snow showers, and clouds will return tonight into Friday behind a cold front.
257 PM PST Thu Jan 21 2021 A weak storm system will bring areas of light rain and snow across southern Washington and the lower Idaho Panhandle into this evening before departing on Friday.
520 PM CST Thu Jan 21 2021 A weak cold front moved through western NE this afternoon with increasing clouds across the panhandle and southwest. Highs will be coldest in the northeast at near 30 degrees, ranging in the lower 40s in far southwest NE. A positively tilted upper trough will extend across the Great Basin into the Rockies as a deep closed low extends over northern Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba. Light snow is forecast to develop ahead of this trough, in west southwest flow aloft from WY into northern NE and SD.
549 PM CST Thu Jan 21 2021 Mild temperatures return reaching the upper 40s for areas north of US36 and the low to mid 50's for places south. This system will have little impact on our weather thanks to the large high pressure dominating the central CONUS.
Locally, this means dry conditions continuing overnight, with morning lows in the low 50s, except for upper 40s along portions of the inland Treasure Coast. But, with winds remaining around or slightly above 5mph overnight due to the tightening pressure gradient between the front and high pressure, this scenario would favor low stratus development instead. Nonetheless, the highest chances for seeing any fog or low stratus will continue to be across the inland terminals. Favorable boating conditions persisting overnight, as high pressure crosses the peninsula as it moves eastward out of the GOMEX. W winds remaining around 10-15kts overnight, as the pressure gradient tightens between the high pressure and a nearly zonal frontal boundary across northern Florida.
With general high pressure at the surface temperatures today have warmed nicely into the 40s. This pattern shift will be characterized by a prolonged time frame of southwest flow with several low pressure troughs of varying strength moving through the area. This acts to reduce overall snow amounts with freezing drizzle/drizzle in play at times due to lack of ice within the cloud. For now have 1 to 2 inches of snow possible along the Missouri River with reduced amounts to the west where freezing drizzle may cut down amounts.
/issued 208 PM CST Thu Jan 21 2021/ Water vapor imagery shows a mid/upper level low INVOF nrn Baja. In wake of said low/trof an assocd cold front will back door into the ne CWFA between 18Z-21Z Fri and eventually west of MAF/ODO-HOB by 03Z/Fri. Late Sun PM an upper low will be near the 4-Corners and 7h-5h winds will have increased to 30kts-90kts, respectively. There are some indications that the next upper low will be quickly approaching and that may continue the breezy-windy conditions Tue and/or Wed. Warmer signals Thur-Fri, but again may be accompanied by dry winds.
507 PM CST Thu Jan 21 2021 This afternoon, satellite imagery shows stratus and flurries spreading in from the southern Red River Valley, associated with a weak disturbance aloft, resolved as a backdoor cold front.
Satellite shows upstream high clouds are a bit cooler on IR, and may be more dense, which may help preventing more widespread dense fog.
CAA will increase heading into tonight and tomorrow, leading to notably cooler conditions.
A weak cold front is due to pass through tonight, bringing light precipitation.
Temperatures are running at or slightly below compared to this time 24 hours ago as yesterday's ridge axis that was positioned over northern California has come and gone. Upper level low presently centered several hundred miles west of Seattle will drop southeastward over the next 24 hours, and will open the door to a long overdue and welcomed pattern change for northern California.
703 PM EST Thu Jan 21 2021 Cold front brings reinforcement of cold airmass Friday.
402 PM EST Thu Jan 21 2021 Current visible satellite imagery reveals mostly sunny skies across the Florida Keys island chain, although some high-level cirrus clouds have filtered across portions of the Lower and Middle Keys this afternoon. As is often the case this time of year due to the isallobaric effects of locally cooler surrounding coastal waters, numerical guidance struggled with the wind directions today. Winds should finally become east to southeast everywhere and slacken late this evening and overnight as an upper- level ridge continues to settle southeast towards the island chain. The aforementioned ridge will be camped overhead the island chain by Friday afternoon.
I made adjustments to match current trends and to lower overnight lows in line with the lower end of guidance.
518 PM CST Thu Jan 21 2021 A dry cold front will move southeastward through our forecast area this evening, putting an end to our current warming trend.
The exception has been north of Highway 150/24 where a light snowpack has kept temperatures down in the lower 40s. Much colder air arrives Tonight into Friday as a cold front pushes across central IL.
As the main trough drop southward across California tonight and tomorrow, the leading edge looks to break away and pushes northeastward into southern WY.
301 PM CST Thu Jan 21 2021 Cold front will continue to make its way south through the rest of the cwa into the evening hours. Upper teens to the lower 20s in the northeast cwa with lower 30s in the southwest cwa Friday afternoon are expected.
Cooler temperatures and flurries highlight the short term. Another cold front will swing through tomorrow morning.
402 PM CST Thu Jan 21 2021 Today has seen a warm front just to the north as southerly flow off the gulf continues.
/issued 259 PM CST Thu Jan 21 2021/ Light rain associated with a cold front sinking south is continuing across our southern counties in MS. High pressure builds in with rain ending by around 17Z Friday.
655 PM EST Thu Jan 21 2021 Mild high pressure will extend across the Carolinas through Friday. A dry cold front will cross the region Friday night, followed by cooler Canadian high pressure that will build across the mid Atlantic this weekend.
Cold front will continue to make its way south through the rest of the CWA into the evening hours. Upper teens to the lower 20s in the northeast CWA, with lower 30s in the southwest CWA Friday afternoon are expected.
335 PM CST Thu Jan 21 2021 A cold front is sagging south across the area this afternoon and temperatures are dropping into the teens accordingly across central Minnesota.
235 PM PST Thu Jan 21 2021 Weak high pressure aloft will bring dry weather tonight.
827 PM CST Thu Jan 21 2021 Cold front is south of the region this evening. Another upper level disturbance will approach the Lower MS valley overnight and rain will skirt the southern counties of the forecast area roughly south of a line form Clarksdale to Tupelo. /issued 259 PM CST Thu Jan 21 2021/ Light rain associated with a cold front sinking south is continuing across our southern counties in MS. High pressure builds in with rain ending by around 17Z Friday.
835 PM EST Thu Jan 21 2021 A cold front is stalled across the northern FL border.