Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
* TEMPS REST OF WEEK: The passage of an upper level trough Thu will pull some cooler air back across the region - but not that cold. * THU/FRI STORM SYSTEM: hit, miss, glancing blow? The GFS and EC remain in good agreement with lifting an upper level trough northeast out of the desert southwest Wed night, pushing across the mid mississippi river valley by 00z Sat. * ACTIVE START TO NEW WEEK? The EC and GFS both progging an upper level trough shifting from the desert SW to across the nation's mid section on Tue. Winds will then quickly diminish by early evening as a weak cold front approaches, shifting winds around to the west to northwest.
High pressure over Ontario continues to move east. As a result, winds have turned to the southeast and are advecting in slightly higher dewpoints over temperatures in the lower 30s. Temperatures will climb into the 60s today and Thursday before a cold front approaches late in the week.
246 AM MDT Wed Mar 16 2022 Current surface map places cold front across western South Dakota. Dry/warm conditions on tap for the end of the week into the weekend as upper level ridge shifts into the plains.
A cold front was analyzed over the James River valley; headed for the Prairie Coteau of northeast South Dakota. Temperatures throughout the CWA, both ahead of and behind the cold front, were noted in the 30s and 40s.
A long wave upper ridge will build into the west coast tonight into Wednesday. Wednesday high temperatures will be warmer just about everywhere; near normal over the Oregon west side, and near normal to around 5 degrees above normal over the east side and northern California. The ridge will break to the east of the area Wednesday night, and the upstream trough will move in, pushing a weak front onshore Thursday. High temperatures Thursday will be about the same as the Wednesday highs over most of the area, and 2 to 5 degrees warmer over the east side. A weak warm front far in advance of its parent upper trough will move through Thursday night.
340 AM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022 Cut-off upper low over central MS will continue to slowly slide to the east today allowing upper level ridge to build into the region with increasing southwesterly flow. /Canadian border, dragging a cold front eastward, moving into northwestern Missouri by this evening. Otherwise, another dry and well above normal day is expected with highs in the low 60s to mid 70s.
A closed upper low spins over the lower Mississippi River Valley at this hour, and will only slowly move across the Gulf Coast states tonight into tomorrow. Upper low is near Texarkana and heading eastbound to Atlanta, but with no Smokey in pursuit it will go much slower than the Bandit and the Snowman. Meanwhile, an upper level trough upstream swings from the Four Corners region to the southern Plains.
1238 AM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022 High pressure will maintain CAVU through 09Z Thursday 03/17.
132 AM EDT Wed Mar 16 2022 Low pressure passes south of the area Wednesday, with a few showers.
The latest GOES east Water Vapor Imagery shows a cutoff low pressure system churning over southern Mississippi and slowly sliding eastward at this hour. We will see about a 24 hour break from the rain as weak ridging builds in behind the exiting low. A new trough will develop over the Four Corners Region Thursday afternoon and traverse east across the Rockies. The trough will take on a negative tilt as it moves across the Southern Plains Thursday night.
Another day of highs in the lower 70s is expected.
114 AM EDT Wed Mar 16 2022 Low pressure near the Gulf Coast will move northeastward towards the Carolinas tonight, allowing for rain to return into the forecast late tonight through Wednesday.
Discussion: A closed low over MS early this morning will be tracking E-NE through the day, and will be located over NC by the end of this period. After 12Z the stronger QG forcing rotating around the NE side of the low will overcome the downslope winds and spread precip into the northern half of the area. Will include a slight chance of thunderstorms across the southern Valley and SW NC this afternoon, where midlevel temps with the closed mid/upper low will be cooler.
The wind is not expected to be quite as strong across far northwest Oklahoma as the pressure gradient relaxes near a cold front that will be in or closer to northwestern Oklahoma, so Harper County is not included in the Red Flag Warning.
/issued 843 PM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022/ An upper level low pressure system continues to track across the Lower Mississippi River Valley tonight. Currently, low pressure was centered over south Mississippi. As this low continue to moves slowly east along the Gulf coast tonight, areas of light rain will continue to move across the region with the best chance of rain over southern and eastern sections of the Mid- South. Temperatures will remain a few degrees warmer than normal for mid-March with lows Wednesday morning in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Dry weather will continue across the Mid-South for Wednesday night and Thursday as high pressure builds across the region. Temperatures will be a little warmer Thursday with highs in the lower 70s.
Rain will spread slowly from south to north overnight and tomorrow morning as a low pressure system tracks over the region. DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 49 71 50 65 / 50 10 0 10 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 48 69 47 69 / 70 20 0 0 70 Oak Ridge, TN 63 47 70 47 67 / 70 20 0 0 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 47 66 44 69 / 70 40 10 0 50.
Broad, flat mid-level ridging was found across the Upper Midwest early this morning with GOES 16 moisture channels showing a plume of mid/high level clouds streaming across the northern plains to the Great Lakes. 925 mb temps will climb to 10-14C, approximately 5C warmer than yesterday. Thickening mid/high level clouds are expected, although soundings indicate quite a bit of dry air in the low-levels. A cooler day is in store for Thursday behind the front with more cloud cover than today.
333 AM EDT Wed Mar 16 2022 Dry weather is expected today through Thursday as low pressure tracks to the south and east.
While a few sprinkles couldn't be ruled out measurable precipitation appears unlikely tonight and even then due to above freezing surface temperatures (due to insulation from clouds) impacts wouldn't be anticipated. There is a signal for light fog late tonight/Wed AM, but Flow is in a non traditional direction and with low pressure (rather than surface ridging) and insulation from cloud cover confidence is low in more than lighter fog impacts. Temps in that situation are more likely to remain above freezing due to insulation but not be as warm as NBM is showing "dampening" our high forecast a bit. Some models are hinting at that potential along the Canadian border, but the lowest winds should be east of the Red River Valley.
158 AM MDT Wed Mar 16 2022 Weak cold front moves across the area this morning which will bring temperatures down about 10-15 degrees compared to yesterdays warm weather. Upper level ridging moves into the area Thursday and sticks around through the weekend.
404 AM EDT Wed Mar 16 2022 Low pressure passes south of the area today and tonight, with a few showers expected.
Temperatures are a couple of degrees warmer today with 90s out west and mid 80s forecast for the rest of the area. Tomorrow will be warmer, breezier, and more humid than today. An incoming 500mb level trough works its way into northern Texas strengthening the pressure gradient causing our winds to increase making for a breezy day especially for the coastal counties with gusts up to 20-25 mph.
We are expecting lows tonight in the lower to mid 30s. With temperatures near freezing, this could mean icy bridges etc. Dry and mild weather prevails until Thursday night when some light rain showers are possible along a cold front, as a low moves northeast from the Southern Plains. This solution is less amplified than the GFS/GEM with a slower developing positively tilted trough axis.
However, a cold front will begin to move into the area Thursday afternoon, keeping temperatures a bit lower northwest of the Illinois River. Rain will become widespread over the region Thursday night, as the front interacts with low pressure moving put of the southern Plains.
420 AM EDT Wed Mar 16 2022 A chance for showers and thunderstorms return today after a slight break in the weather as the upper level low continues to move out of the area.
1041 PM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022 (This evening through Wednesday) Upper level ridging will keep things stable in the short term.
A cutoff low pressure system is spinning over SW MS/NE LA and is slowly tracking to the east. Expect additional shower development overnight due to synoptic lift along the outer edges of the low pressure system. However, as the upper low lifts northeastward across central AL, a pocket of cold air aloft will lead to modest destabilization during the afternoon hours, during the peak of the diurnal warming cycle. Lingering afternoon convection should end across northeast AL shortly after sunset, as the mid/upper low begins to open into trough and accelerate northeastward into western NC. A low-amplitude mid- level ridge will translate eastward across the region during the morning hours on Thursday, allowing for clearing skies and the potential development of widespread/locally dense fog during the morning hours as a relaxed pressure gradient will favor light/variable flow.
The upper closed low pressure system currently centered over SW MS will move slowly to over central Alabama through noon Wednesday, and then accelerates as it lifts northeastward to over central North Carolina by daybreak Thursday. Steep mid-level lapse rates remain present over the area as the upper low slowly moves across, which may favor hail production in the thunderstorms, and it's still possible that a couple storms could reach sufficient size (quarter sized hail) to warrant severe thunderstorm warning(s). Lows tonight remain on track to reach the lower to mid 50s. Broad/weak surface ridging will stretch across the north central Gulf Coast region Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Today Through Thursday A low pressure system, currently located over central Mississippi, will continue to track away from the CWA during the day today allowing skies to clear and dry weather prevail.
1127 PM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022 (The rest of tonight) Clearing skies in the wake of the upper low moving away from the region will likely set the stage for fog development tonight into Wednesday morning in some areas. The latest short term guidance is pointing to the lower Arkansas and Red River Valleys for dense fog development, with patchy fog possible elsewhere across southeast Oklahoma up into western Arkansas. This area received wrap-around rainfall from the upper low earlier today and has higher dewpoints, so it does make sense. If signal persists in the data this evening, a dense fog advisory may be issued for areas with the highest confidence of dense fog development.
Low pressure system that has been producing the rainfall across Arkansas is not moving very much at the moment, but was slowly wobbling it's way across the ArkLaTex region, and will skirt off to the east tonight. Highs tomorrow will mainly be in the lower 70's with plenty of sunshine, although some 60's will hang on in the southeast where cloud cover may linger a bit. Thursday will be even warmer, with mid to upper 70's across a wide swath of the area.
High rain chances will continue tonight into Wednesday as an upper level low affects the region. For Wednesday, as the upper level low moves closer, some mid-level dry air is expected to move into the area from the southwest, which will likely decrease rain chances across the western portions of the area. Overnight lows tonight are expected to range from the mid 50s to lower 60s with highs on Wednesday mainly in the low to mid 70s. A break in the action is expected on Wednesday night into Thursday as the current systems moves away and the area is in between systems with a brief period of high pressure. Lows are expected to be mostly in the low to mid 50s with highs mainly in the mid 70s.
Showers associated with an upper trough are already developing in southeast Oregon. A weak cold front will also move through tonight. Dry conditions prevail Wednesday through Thursday as an upper ridge off the coast moves into the region. A weak upper trough will bring a slight chance (15-25 percent) of showers to the northern higher terrain Thursday night. Temperatures will be cooler on Wednesday with a slight warmup on Thursday, but both days will remain a little below normal.
Broad low-amplitude ridging and positive 500-mb height anomalies are present across the area. Weak flow will slowly advect warmer plume into our area during the next two days, especially as mean ridging shifts eastward and the next trough approaches. This, combined with slightly deeper mixing will yield slightly warmer temperatures today and tomorrow, with tomorrow being the warmest.
Winds continue to be breezy this afternoon and into the overnight hours as the pressure gradient remains relatively tight ahead of the trough. Gusts 35 to 45 mph in the typical windy spots will be common through sunset, and places like the west side of Clark, WY and Outer Drive in Casper could see gusts in the low 50 mph range. Widespread cloud cover is forecast to persist out west into the day Wednesday, with daytime temperatures on Wednesday being 5 to 10 degrees cooler than those felt today. A quick moving ridge will pass through on Thursday for a dry spell.
144 AM EDT Wed Mar 16 2022 Tonight low pressure will move toward the area with rain chances will increasing through daybreak. Conditions briefly improve Thursday before a cold front approaches to end the work week. High pressure moves in behind the front this weekend. With overcast skies and periods of rain, temperatures will be slow to modify on Wednesday with expected highs in the 60s and overnight lows in the lower to mid 50s. Thursday and Thursday Night: Upper-level ridging moves into the forecast area on Thursday providing a short break in the active weather. Temperatures on Thursday will be above normal with most locations ending up in the lower 70s.
There is widespread dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere therefore not all precipitation is reaching the ground. The warmer air will be short- lived as a cold front is progged to move through the CWA later this evening shifting the winds more westerly/northwesterly. There is a chance of light freezing drizzle/drizzle for some terminals through around 15Z.
Could see areas of fog and IFR CIGs develop late at night or toward dawn north of approaching warm front. Winds will be easterly Tonight, shifting to southeasterly Wed morning and Southerly Wed afternoon as warm front shifts N of TAF sites. Warm front will lift north across the region Tonight. An area of low pressure will track East along the Gulf coast late Tonight, then move across southern GA Wednesday. The cold front associated with the low will move west to east across area Wednesday afternoon. The low will move away to the northeast Wednesday night through Thursday, as a ridge of high pressure builds across area.
212 AM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022 Upper level low continues spinning off to our south this morning with light to moderate rain ongoing across our southwestern two- thirds. Scattered showers will continue today but gradually shift eastward as the upper level low tracks into Georgia and the Carolinas. Dry and warmer conditions will return on Thursday as heights rise in the wake of the upper low, with highs reaching the upper 60s to low 70s.
1154 PM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Current conditions across the region are characterized by mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the low to mid 60s with nearly calm winds. Temperatures will be warmer tonight than last night, with lows primarily in the low 40s. As the closed mid level low currently over Arkansas scoots off to the east tomorrow, west southwesterly mid level flow sets in in response to an approaching trough across the Desert Southwest. As the aforementioned trough further approaches, a cold front will move into the region overnight Wednesday into early Thursday morning.
with low temperatures expected to stay above freezing in all but the typically coldest spots to start the day on Wednesday. While a cold front is then expected to reach central Nebraska by late morning or early afternoon. the upper level flow becomes more amplified with a ridge of high pressure transitioning across the local area through the upcoming weekend.
Temperatures in our CWA could be a tale of two halves with cooler and foggy conditions in eastern maritime locations with high clouds and warmer conditions across the west. NAM soundings show dew point temps creeping above freezing overnight across the west which could result in some shallow advection fog for locations favored by south- southwesterly upslope. Locations favored by southerly downsloping may get even warmer whereas locations downwind of Lake MI may not warm above 40F. A cold front crosses our CWA late Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Conceptually, this front should scour out the low level inversion allowing for decreasing fog coverage and density. Surface ridging builds in Thursday night and persists through the weekend resulting in mostly sunny skies and large diurnal temperature ranges with warm sunny days and cool clear nights.
Cooler air works into the area starting this afternoon as winds gradually become northwesterly. Looking into Thursday, highs will be slightly cooler than today, with highs in the 30s and continued quiet conditions.
A few showers this morning with mainly dry weather today as weak ridging moves across the area.
1243 AM EDT Wed Mar 16 2022 Dry and warmer weather is expected through the end of the week. Will need to keep an eye on Thursday as models are showing a 500mb low undercutting the eastern CONUS ridge. The low will pull moisture northwestward from the Atlantic ocean as it moves toward the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday.
1133 PM MDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Satellite imagery shows high clouds moving across the region generally from west to east ahead of an approaching trough. QPF will be fairly low (traces in valleys with 1/4 in the highest elevations) with the weak and quick-moving system. Even so, the mid elevations will struggle to accumulate an inch of snow with around 2-4 inches in the high country. On Thursday, the low pressure will be lifting out over the northern plains. Temperatures will be slight cooler than tomorrow, but those will begin to moderate as a ridge quickly builds in from the west.
346 AM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022 A cut-off low is slowly meandering across Mississippi and into Alabama early this morning. This will continue over the course of the morning and into the afternoon hours as synoptic lift from this low increases as it pivots into central/south Alabama. Lingering afternoon rainfall/convection will begin to taper off by the evening hours as the upper low finally shifts to the NE into the Carolinas. An upper-ridge axis will briefly shift over the Tennessee Valley on Thursday, giving us some dry and warm conditions given the southerly flow and sunshine -- with highs in the lower 70s.
There is widespread dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere therefore not all precipitation is reaching the ground. The warmer air will be short- lived as a cold front is progged to move through the CWA later this evening shifting the winds more westerly/northwesterly. A cold front is expected to move through the area this this evening switching winds around to the northwest. As the cooler air filters in over the snowpack could lead to developing fog.
557 AM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022 Cut-off upper low over central MS will continue to slowly slide to the east today allowing upper level ridge to build into the region with increasing southwesterly flow. /Canadian border, dragging a cold front eastward, moving into northwestern Missouri by this evening. Otherwise, another dry and well above normal day is expected with highs in the low 60s to mid 70s.
Breezy north winds and slightly cooler temperatures can be expected areawide today, with spotty showers possible this afternoon mainly east of Highway 95.
500 AM PDT Wed Mar 16 2022 The Aviation section has been updated for the 16/12Z TAFs Frankly not much will be going on today as high pressure builds over the region.
Temperatures remain above freezing for most of the area, so melting continues. Cooler air works into the area starting this afternoon as winds gradually become northwesterly. Looking into Thursday, highs will be slightly cooler than today, with highs in the 30s and continued quiet conditions.
12Z TAF discussion: A low pressure system over the region is leading to low stratus and a few patches of BR or FG to start the TAF period. /NF/ Today through Tonight: A vertically stacked low pressure system continues to spin and drift slowly east today. On and off sprinkles will still be possible into the daytime, with the chances gradually following the low to the east. Temperatures should rise generally into the mid 60s this afternoon, but a few spots in northeast Louisiana and southeast Arkansas could hit the low 70s if the clouds thin out heading into the daytime.
1008 AM EDT Wed Mar 16 2022 Dry weather is expected today through Thursday as low pressure tracks to the south and east.
A cut-off low is slowly meandering across Mississippi and into Alabama early this morning. This will continue over the course of the morning and into the afternoon hours as synoptic lift from this low increases as it pivots into central/south Alabama. Lingering afternoon rainfall/convection will begin to taper off by the evening hours as the upper low finally shifts to the NE into the Carolinas. An upper-ridge axis will briefly shift over the Tennessee Valley on Thursday, giving us some dry and warm conditions given the southerly flow and sunshine -- with highs in the lower 70s.
Meanwhile, the upper level low is stacked right on top and semi cut-off from the main flow, which is accounting for its slow movement. Currently seeing gentle to moderate southeast breezes across our waters generally east of the Seven Mile Bridge.
A ridge of high pressure builds in briefly to bring the return of dry and warmer temperatures for today. There might be enough moisture to produce some snow flurry's or drizzle over the higher elevations and increased cloud cover should help cool temperatures a little.
There is also around 40 knots of shear in the lowest 6km present to help sustain updrafts, with ~35kts in the lowest 3km.
A weak cold front will bring a chance of showers and even a thunderstorm, mainly to portions of northern and eastern Arizona, by later today and tonight. Slightly cooler and dry on Thursday.
Afternoon highs are expected to reach around 80 degrees from Kissimmee to Titusville northward, the low 80s for the rest of Osceola/Brevard Counties, and mid 80s for the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County. The large cutoff low across the Deep South will continue lifting north/east away from FL this afternoon, dragging a cold front through Central FL this afternoon/evening. Latest visible GOES imagery shows the leading edge of the cold front over the far eastern GOMEX, west of the Tampa Bay/Nature Coast area. 5C on the XMR sounding, with the freezing level between 12-12. South to southwest winds 10-15 knots today across the waters ahead of an approaching cold front that will move through the area tonight.
Upper level low continues spinning off to our south this morning with light to moderate rain ongoing across our southwestern two- thirds. Scattered showers will continue today but gradually shift eastward as the upper level low tracks into Georgia and the Carolinas. Dry and warmer conditions will return on Thursday as heights rise in the wake of the upper low, with highs reaching the upper 60s to low 70s.
659 AM EDT Wed Mar 16 2022 Low pressure passes south of the area today and tonight, with a few showers expected.
657 AM EDT Wed Mar 16 2022 Dry weather is expected today through Thursday as low pressure tracks to the south and east.