Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 929 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022/ A warm front along a line from near Lufkin to Tyler to Sulphur Springs has brought a near 10 degree dewpoint gradient across east Texas. Overnight low temperatures to range from the low to mid 60s west of the frontal boundary, which would include Tyler, Longview and Lufkin, to the mid to upper 50s across the remainder of the ArkLaTex.
We should see another decent rad cooling night tonight, but with warmer lower levels and some return flow underway, readings will hold in the lower/mid 50s. Friday will be warmer than today and a bit more moist in the low levels, but still relatively dry.
334 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022 Upper troughing off the New England coast and over the Intermountain West. At the surface, high pressure extended from eastern Canada into the Carolinas with a westward extension across much of the eastern half of the Gulf Coast. Low pressure was developing near the Kansas-Colorado border. Across the Pearl River Basin and much of southwest Mississippi, temperatures were in the lower 50s at 3 AM CDT, but areas with more clouds, or winds blowing off warmer water, had temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to upper 60s.
At this time, much of the area is in the low to mid 50s, with some still in the 40s! We also have a breezy east to southeast wind, which doesn't make these conditions any more pleasant. Weak upper ridging seen today will slowly push east, as a weak storm system makes its approach. With dense cloud cover and warm advection picking up through the night, temperatures will be quite mild, generally ranging in the low 50s. Weak boundary that has been sitting over our south for the last 24 hours will slowly push north and out of our area, as the low pressure ejects off of the Rockies and pulls a warm front north towards our area. a progressive, negatively tilted trough is progged to move across the area.
While Friday's highs will only be in the lower 60s, expect widespread 70s to start the weekend.
Upper ridge will continue to build across the southern Appalachians the next 24 hours. Surface ridging will continue to move east of the area with return of southerly flow for Friday. Plenty of high and mid-level clouds will spill over the ridge across the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians.
Today's RH values should be slightly greater than yesterday with some moisture recovery since yesterday, but most locations will likely bottom out in the 30-40 percent range as temperatures climb into the lower- to mid-80s. Warmer than normal temperatures will continue overnight with lows running about 5-8 degrees above normal for late April. As this low slowly tracks northeast, a cold front will push through portions of the Midwest and Mid-Mississippi Valley.
Most of the state should remain dry through this evening as weak upper ridging moves overhead. Even with this ridging. This will allow for somewhat increasing moisture across the state ahead of an approaching cold front. The aforementioned cold front will drop SE into the state on Sat into Sat night.
A look at the broader picture shows an upper-level ridge over the Midwest, building up toward the southern reaches of Hudson Bay with a progressive, open wave moving across the central and northern Rockies. The ridge will be the primary player today, suppressing rain chances across the Mid-South as the aforementioned stalled front lifts back to the north. Temperatures today will climb into the lower 80s in most areas with south winds increasing to 10-20 mph, gusting over 25 mph at times. A vertically-stacked cyclone will be lifting northeast across the Corn Belt, focusing most of the synoptic lift well to our north. However, 500-300 mb Q-Vector progs suggest a more subtle PV anomaly rotating around the base of the trough across the lower OH Valley.
A strong Pacific cold front across the wrn U. By 00z this evening, a closed upper level low will be entering wrn Nebraska. This threat is associated with ongoing convection and the arrival of a Pacific cold front. A strong Pacific cold front moving through the wrn U.
1133 PM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022 High pressure will provide clear skies below 8-12kft with just mid/upper moisture skirting southwest of this high overnight into Friday. A broad 1030 mb high pressure resides across the Great Lakes and Ontario today with a very dry airmass in place. An upper ridge axis will be moving into the western Great Lakes throughout today and is pulling warmer air into the forecast area compared to yesterday's very cold airmass. Though, the dry airmass will support another round of below freezing temperatures for tonight into tomorrow morning. The negative tilt of the associated trough will increase the southerly flow into Michigan with 850 mb temperatures climbing to 7-10C by later in the day.
As this occurs it will open the door for another round of strong northwest winds on the backside of the low Saturday. Winds toward the higher end of this range are most likely in northeast Nebraska.
Weak ridging embedded within a generally zonal flow pattern aloft is expected to continue across the region through Friday afternoon. Low level ridging will also extend across the eastern/southeastern U. Highs Friday and Saturday are forecast to range in the lower to mid 80s over interior parts of the area and in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees closer to the coast. Lows Friday night should range in the lower 60s inland and in the mid to upper 60s along the coast.
With the warmer temperatures also comes breezy conditions. We will have a negatively tilted trough with plenty of upper level divergence, a strong LLJ, and decent cold front; all of which support storm development. Strong to severe storms are possible west of HWY 65, with the highest chance for severe weather being along and west of the MO/KS border. It'll be breezy again, but slightly cooler on Saturday behind the front.
Given enough sunshine, high temperatures nudging into the lower 60s would be pretty close to normal for this time of year. -- Weekend -- A large and occluding low over the central Missouri river basin on Saturday will increasingly affect us on Saturday as the upper- level ridge axis slowly translates through and east of Michigan. By evening, thunderstorms are possible beginning in southwest Lower Michigan as the low-level jet ramps up.
Pressure ridge across the area. Weak warm advection should result in slightly warmer temperatures today than yesterday. Mid-level ridging will stretch across the eastern US for much of the day Saturday while southerly low level flow will continue to drive PWATs over 1. Despite moisture availability, only weak isentropic lift across the area will not offset the suppressing impacts of the mid level ridging. So precip chances have continued to trend down for Saturday while the ridging aloft remains in place; only slight chance pops are forecast across the northwestern forecast area. Some cu will develop as the low level isentropic lift and strong heating continues but high temps will still reach into the low-mid 80s for most locations.
We might even get a brief spin-up along the stationary boundary, especially with the low-shear environment. We could also stand a chance at some short-term near-critical fire weather issues in at least our Kansas counties as the dry air surges north ahead of the cold front. Cold front surges through and still a strong signal for near-high wind criteria wind gusts near 60 mph from the northwest, especially near and west of tri-cities. Saturday looks like a quite windy and potentially damp day with wrap around moisture on the backside of the low.
125 AM EDT Fri Apr 29 2022 Fair weather will persist through early Friday as high pressure moves off the coast. A warm front will approach from the southwest Friday, resulting in increasing cloud cover and the threat for showers this weekend.
Compact/deep upper trough ejecting out of the Rockies this morning. Morning convection and associated lead impulse will depart with a brief period of limited shower activity until the main upper trough and diurnal heating supports widespread showers later this morning and afternoon. A winter weather adv could be needed for the northern BH if amounts trend toward the higher end.
A semi-zonal upper level flow is expected to continue through tomorrow afternoon as a weak upper level ridge begins to approach the region Saturday evening. With southerly flow advecting a warmer airmass into the region, high temperatures today and tomorrow are expected to range from the lower to mid 80s near the coast to the mid to upper 90s from the Coastal Plains to the Rio Grande Plains. Low temperatures Friday night are expected to remain mild with most of the CWA in the lower to mid 70s.
218 AM EDT Fri Apr 29 2022 An omega block will remain in place through the upcoming weekend, with an upper low parked east of New England and upper ridging slowly approaching from the Great Lakes.
Pressure falls continue over the northern and central High Plains this evening, in advance of a strong upper level trough moving into the Northern Rockies tonight. A few areas in the west could see a few snowflakes with the 850mb temperatures dropping below freezing in the wrap around. Surface temperatures mostly likely will stay above freezing, so very little snow accumulation if any is expected. As mentioned above, uncertainty still remains in the timing and location, especially as the low exits the region.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): Weak 500 mb ridging will persist over the Lone Star State, placing the BRO CWFA in a northwest-to- southeast mid-level flow.
Pressure falls are intensifying across western KS and mark the onset of influence from the approaching mid level trough.
(Today and tonight) Early this morning, an upper-level trough was moving eastward through the Great Basin and Intermountain West. This low will push into western Kansas by early afternoon and help to turn winds out of the southwest across west Texas. The dryline will mix eastward during this time, which will allow much warmer and drier air to intrude into western portions of the CWA this afternoon.
This low will dissipate today as it gets absorbed into a developing low over Colorado. Upper trough will move through Montana today with deep moisture over the southern half of the state. An upper low will develop today at the base of the trough over either Colorado or Nebraska this afternoon and the system moves to the east tonight which will take the moisture with it. Upper ridge on Saturday will bring dry and warmer weather.
Upper level energy over the Intermountain West is forecast to carve out a deep upper trough/low as it digs into the central Plains through Saturday. Initial warm advection ahead of the low will result in the potential for light showers tonight into Friday, especially across northern and western portions of the forecast area. As a warm front lifts north by Friday afternoon, much of the area should be dry with a capping inversion in place in the warm sector south of the warm front. The approach of the cold front on Saturday will provide the focus for shower and thunderstorm development by Saturday afternoon and evening. The combination of this instability with modest deep layered shear may allow for the development of isolated/scattered thunderstorms out ahead of the cold front Saturday afternoon.
Otherwise, surface ridging will keep southeasterly winds at all sites throughout the period.
A cold front will approach from the west by early Saturday.
An upper ridge will bring a short dry spell to Western Washington on Friday before the next frontal system moves through Friday night into Saturday.
A strong upper level trough will strengthen into a closed low above Nebraska today. As this occurs, an area of low pressure at the surface will be strengthening across western Kansas as the day progresses with a cold front moving through the area late this afternoon into this evening. An associated dry line will extend south from this low and be positioned across eastern portions of the CWA by this afternoon. High pressure builds into the area tonight with continued strong northwesterly winds and mostly clear skies. As for temperatures, highs this afternoon look to soar into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees with lows tonight ranging from the low 40s across west central Kansas to low 50s across south central Kansas.
Once the upper ridge amplifies overhead on Friday would expect any showers to end by Friday afternoon and much of the thicker cloudiness may dissipate as well. It will be a few degrees warmer Friday but winds will be a bit stronger too. -- Rain Saturday Night -- Dry conditions continuing into Saturday morning followed by an increased risk for for some measurable showers in the afternoon as the ridge upper axis departs to the east.
Temperatures are forecast to dip into the low to mid-30s across our central OH counties, with warmer temperatures near the mid to upper 40s around the Tristate. Warmer temperatures will be in place for Friday with highs in the 60s. For Saturday, a dampening ridge pattern will continue to shift east of the region as a strengthening upper level s/wv pushes through the central plains into the MS valley. The daytime will begin with showers oriented near the NW to SE running warm frontal boundary extending from the western Great Lakes extending SE toward the Appalachians.
A cold front passing through will bring northerly winds today, with most areas seeing lighter speeds than yesterday. High temperatures today will be similar to yesterday, then warmer weather is expected for much of the weekend and upcoming week.
The majority of winter driving conditions will take place at the higher elevations such as Georgetown Lake, Homestake and MacDonald Passes. Snow shower activity will decrease by the late morning hours as the low moves into eastern Montana.
1109 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022 Key Messages: - Warming into the 60's tomorrow - Widespread rain this weekend with the chance for a few stronger storms Saturday afternoon Tonight through Friday: Mid/upper level ridging will build across the Upper MS Valley through Friday ahead of a deepening trough approaching from the central Rockies. Confidence in showers is lower into at least the first half of Friday with the building mid-level ridge, but given the broad isentropic lift/warm advection, a few showers couldn't be ruled out. Despite the clouds, warmer temps are expected on Friday, but southeast winds could gust in the 30 to 40 mph range by afternoon as diurnal mixing taps into strengthening low-level flow.
Friday should be dry and warmer featuring highs in the low to middle 80s. Temperatures should be in the upper 70s to low 80s with overnight temperatures into the low 60s. Upper level ridging breaks down as a stacked low pressure system moves from the Plain states to the Upper Great Lakes. This will bring a cold front to the area Saturday evening. Out ahead of the cold front Saturday afternoon showers and thunderstorms could develop across Arkansas and Missouri Bootheel.
Southeast breezes kept the lower trop mixed overnight as temperatures were generally in the mid to upper 50s. Wind gusts could exceed 30 mph at times today as a tight surface pressure gradient exists with the low approaching from the west. The region will be under the inflection of a passing upper level trough while a ridge builds across the central and northern Plains.
349 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022 Currently, western and central North Dakota is situated under southwest flow aloft as a potent trough approaches from the west. Precipitation will increase to the north and west of this low as a deformation band develops. Highs today and Saturday will remain cool for this time of year, mainly in the lower 40s to lower 50s.
However, do expect to see these dissipate later this morning as some mid level ridging builds in from the west. However, a chance of showers will begin to work back into our southwest late in the day as some mid level short wave energy pushes east across the lower Ohio Valley. Mid level ridging will briefly build back in across the area Saturday morning so will taper back pops to a lower chance later Saturday morning and into early afternoon. A warm front will lift northeast toward the region through Saturday afternoon with some better instabilities developing northeastward into southwest potions of our area.
The high resolution models show these moving north and east this morning leaving behind some mid and high clouds with VFR conditions.
A cold front will move closer to the state tonight. Most of the state should remain dry through this evening as weak upper ridging moves overhead. Even with this ridging. This will allow for somewhat increasing moisture across the state ahead of an approaching cold front. The aforementioned cold front will drop SE into the state on Sat into Sat night.
High pressure extending down across most of the Eastern Seaboard is continuing to build into the region, and winds are gradually increasing in response. From synopsis, High pressure building over the western North Atlantic will result in freshening east to southeast breezes for the Florida Keys coastal waters.
Surface ridging will keep southeasterly winds at all sites throughout the period. /issued 334 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022/ Upper troughing off the New England coast and over the Intermountain West. At the surface, high pressure extended from eastern Canada into the Carolinas with a westward extension across much of the eastern half of the Gulf Coast. Low pressure was developing near the Kansas-Colorado border. Across the Pearl River Basin and much of southwest Mississippi, temperatures were in the lower 50s at 3 AM CDT, but areas with more clouds, or winds blowing off warmer water, had temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to upper 60s.
934 AM EDT Fri Apr 29 2022 Dry weather is expected through Saturday under high pressure.
914 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022 After some early morning clouds and a few areas of light rain, starting to see more clearing from west to east across the Valley as an upper ridge resides over the eastern CONUS. The seasonably warm pattern will continue thru tonight aided by a persistent low level southerly flow coupled with the upper ridge pattern in place. The upper ridge axis will then begin to translate east going into the day Sat, as an upper low/trough lifts into the Great Lakes. Afternoon temps look to remain seasonably warm both Sat/Sun, with highs again in the upper 70s/lower 80s, while lows Sat night trend in the lower/mid 60s. Overall temps look to remain fairly stagnant as well, with highs mainly in the lower/mid 80s while overnight lows again fall into the lower/mid 60s.
A warm front is moving northward through the region today. TD Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 59 82 63 80 / 10 10 20 40 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 58 82 62 78 / 10 10 20 30 80 Oak Ridge, TN 77 57 81 61 78 / 10 10 20 30 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 73 52 79 57 77 / 10 30 40 20 90.
Mid level ridging will briefly build back in across the area Saturday morning so will taper back pops to a lower chance later Saturday morning and into early afternoon. A warm front will lift northeast toward the region through Saturday afternoon with some better instabilities developing northeastward into southwest potions of our area.
An exiting trough of low pressure will permit lower winds from the northwest across much of the area today.
Today through Saturday: A low amplitude upper ridge will prevail today with upper troughing passing to our north on Saturday. A cold front attendant to the upper trough should dissipate across the area on Saturday while serving as little more than a wind shift boundary.
As the upper ridge becomes re- established later this morning, any of these lingering rain showers will dissipate, and dry conditions will return for the afternoon. Weak WAA in association with a Plains low entering the Lower Midwest will help push highs into the mid to upper 50s today across the interior and west, but the southeasterly component will keep them from soaring much higher than that despite some isolated gusts up to 20 to 25 mph. Elsewhere, the Keweenaw and lakeshore areas will be cooler with high temperatures in the 40s to low 50s. Ensembles indicate three separate low pressure systems tracking northeast across the Great Lakes region.
A ridge of high pressure has moved to our east and we are seeing a southerly/southeasterly flow across the area. Highs today will be in the low to mid 80s, with overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Since most of the activity will be in the afternoon, highs will still be able to reach the low to mid 80s areawide.
/issued 331 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): Weak 500 mb ridging will persist over the Lone Star State, placing the BRO CWFA in a northwest-to- southeast mid-level flow.
Weak high pressure will give way to a front tonight and Saturday morning.
Weak ridging embedded within a generally zonal flow pattern aloft is expected to continue across the region through this afternoon. Low level ridging will also extend across the eastern/southeastern U. Highs today and Saturday are forecast to range in the lower to mid 80s over interior parts of the area and in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees closer to the coast. Lows tonight should range in the lower 60s inland and in the mid to upper 60s along the coast.
Today and Saturday will be warmer as a transient ridge moves over the region.
Trough axis and cold front have cleared the CWA this AM, with strong west winds continuing from the ern Magic Valley east toward Pocatello.
514 AM EDT Fri Apr 29 2022 Dry weather is expected through Saturday under high pressure.
Southern Oregon and northern California will largely be under the influence of a weak troughing pattern which will allow for disturbances to move through the region with brief breaks in between. Snow levels will generally start off around 7000 feet and fall to around 4000 feet after the front (although it may take a while to drop this low). Ensembles continue to show good chances for post-frontal showers as the low pressure system this front was attached to meanders across northwest to southeast Oregon as a modified slider.
A warming trend will continue today with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s. Today's RH values should be slightly greater than yesterday with some moisture recovery since yesterday, but most locations will likely bottom out in the 30-40 percent range as temperatures climb into the lower- to mid-80s. Warmer than normal temperatures will continue overnight with lows running about 5-8 degrees above normal for late April. As this low slowly tracks northeast, a cold front will push through portions of the Midwest and Mid-Mississippi Valley.
Currently, western and central North Dakota is situated under southwest flow aloft as a potent trough approaches from the west. Precipitation will increase to the north and west of this low as a deformation band develops. Highs today and Saturday will remain cool for this time of year, mainly in the lower 40s to lower 50s.
Strong upper trough and rapid cyclogenesis over the western Midwest states this afternoon and tonight will slow its eastward progression or any chance for a front moving closer to the area in the short term period. Eventually we get into SW flow aloft as ridge axis passes late Sat with increasing low level moisture, which should also preclude any fire danger issues.
906 AM PDT Fri Apr 29 2022 Weak ridging will lead to a warming trend for today and Saturday before winds turn back onshore later on Saturday.
215 PM EDT Fri Apr 29 2022 A weak front will slowly lift north of the area during Saturday with high pressure situated off the Carolina coast. 18Z surface analysis showed high pressure extending from the Great Lakes southeastward across the Mid-Atlantic and offshore of the Carolinas.
Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s across the island chain, and dewpoints have been in the mid to upper 60s today. High pressure will continue to build into the region overnight, and winds will increase in response. Have maintained the slight chance PoPs (10-20%), with the higher values and a mention of thunder in the Upper Keys, however, there is some uncertainty in this.
Dewpoints increase late, into the low-mid 50s, but marginal instability still remains elevated in nature.