Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SHORT TERM Now through Friday): 500mb ridging continues to settle in over our area, favoring hot and mostly dry conditions across the Rio Grande Valley. The ridge will remain in place through the duration of the short term, so the primary feature to focus on for any sensible weather will be the seabreeze during the late morning and afternoon hours both today and Friday. Temperatures through the short term remain above seasonal average due to persistent ridging. Look for highs ranging from the lower 90s at the beaches, to the middle and upper 90s a bit farther inland, to between 100-105 degrees across areas west of I-69C both today and Friday. Overnight lows range from the middle 70s in the ranchlands to the upper 70s and low 80s in the lower Rio Grande Valley.
High pressure south of the region with W/SW wind flow across the area. A mid-level trough, with a surface boundary, and moisture "tail" associated with the remnants of Ida will be sliding down the peninsula. Moisture remains across the are on Friday as the trough and surface boundary lingers just north or across the region to end the week. Models show a stationary, decaying frontal boundary across the FL/GA border, with its parent trough extending across much of the E CONUS. Meanwhile, high pressure centers dominate the GOMEX and the west Atlantic. For the weekend, long range models show fair agreement in developing a mid-upper low near the Bahamas, and bring it westward toward the peninsula.
A ridge of high pressure will keep skies mostly clear across the area through Friday. We should see highs in the mid to upper 70s today and in the upper 70s on Friday for all but a few counties along the Tennessee border, where the mercury could reach the lower 80s. Tonights lows will be the coolest we've had since the spring, with minimum readings in the lower 50s expected for most locations. Upper level high pressure over the western CONUS will extend eastward as a ridge along the Gulf Coast, while general troughing resides over the northeast CONUS. Lobes rotating through the trough will support a couple of cold fronts which will affect our local area.
Another cool night can be expected tonight, but widespread frost shouldn't be a problem outside of the normally cooler higher valleys along the divide and in southwest MT. Weak disturbances emebedded with the southwest flow aloft ahead of the trough will then bring a slight chance of showers on Thursday morning for areas south and east of a Great Falls to Havre, with little to no measurable rainfall expected.
The remnants will be absorbed into the trough that is sitting over the Great Lakes region and move out into the North Atlantic. In the meantime, a ridge that has been over the Desert Southwest has shifted slightly to the east over our area, which is why the next few days will be pleasant across the Mid-South.
41 Friday the upper level ridge over the south central CONUS will continue to amplify.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s, a nice break from the humid conditions we have felt lately! Dry weather will be the main story in the short-term portion of the forecast. However, dewpoints will be tolerable in the low to mid 60s and despite the mostly sunny skies, highs will only climb into the low to mid 80s. Temperatures will already start to increase again on Friday as a ridge centered over the ArkLaTex expands eastward.
Latest water vapor imagery is showing the large ridge over the Plains that the HREF shows building into Missouri and Illinois late tonight and tomorrow. Expect dry weather to hold over our area at least through Thursday morning before the next upper trough approaches the area from the northwest and there is enough low level moisture convergence to keep a chance of showers over northeast Missouri late Thursday night.
A much drier airmass, mainly above 700mb, has filtered into the region due to an amplifying trough along and east of the Mississippi River. The axis of this trough will slide slowly to the east late today through tonight. Highs today will be around 90 with lows tonight in the lower to mid 70s.
Will go with persistence for highs in the lower to mid 90s, with upper 90s north of I-20. Overnight lows will be mainly in the lower 70s.
Winds aloft are south southwesterly as the ridge continues to slide farther east and ample low level moisture sweeps into eastern New Mexico and West Texas. Going into tomorrow, the upper ridge continues to push east with continued southwesterly winds aloft.
447 AM EDT Thu Sep 2 2021 Ridging overhead along with a very dry mid- to upper-level airmass in place is keeping even mid-level clouds at bay early this morning. With ample radiational cooling early this morning, temps have been able to dip into the upper 30s for a few typically-cooler spots. Don't expect a repeat tonight though as cloud cover moves in and moderates temps, especially in the west (so cooler in the east).
As the low level jet increases tonight the increased lift from it should keep showers and thunderstorms going across the western South Plains and southwestern Texas Panhandle through the early morning hours of Thursday. Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity will come to an end after sunrise on Thursday as the low level jet diminishes.
444 AM EDT Thu Sep 2 2021 High pressure will build in today and shift across the region with fair weather expected into the weekend.
High cirrus overspreading the ridge are encroaching on western Minnesota and will continue to increase from west to east across the forecast area overnight. The high clouds thicken through the day on Thursday, which will temper highs--especially in southeast Minnesota. The upper level ridge axis passes east of the region Thursday night, which will allow southwesterly flow to become established by early Friday. A low-amplitude wave follows quickly in the wake of the ridge but quickly lifts north of the region, ushering a weakening lower tropospheric low/front eastward across southern Minnesota Thursday night and across the Mississippi River on Friday morning. There remain timing and strength differences between the GEFS/EPS members given the low predictability characteristics of the wave, but there is a strong non-zero QPF signal within the EPS, so have kept PoPs in the likely category.
356 AM EDT Thu Sep 2 2021 High pressure builds in from the north through the weekend.
652 AM EDT Thu Sep 2 2021 High pressure builds in from the north through the weekend.
Lower chances at DHN and ABY as a weak cold front will push south of those terminals sometime later this morning with a drier airmass filtering in from the north. A much drier airmass, mainly above 700mb, has filtered into the region due to an amplifying trough along and east of the Mississippi River. The axis of this trough will slide slowly to the east late today through tonight. Highs today will be around 90 with lows tonight in the lower to mid 70s.
623 AM EDT Thu Sep 2 2021 High pressure builds in from the north through the weekend.
735 AM EDT Thu Sep 2 2021 As the short term period begins, an upper level trough axis has cleared Georgia and is continuing to push eastward towards the Atlantic coast. Meanwhile, northwesterly flow aloft is setting up on the back side the trough and ahead of a pronounced upper ridge currently positioned over the central CONUS. At the surface, a weak cold front extending from the remnants of Ida is moving southward through the forecast area. The northwesterly flow and influence of the upper level ridge will promote a drier and more stable airmass over north and central Georgia today and Friday. Minimal relative humidity values will fall into the low 40s with some mid 30s across SE GA. The upper level flow will gradually become zonal over the weekend with high pressure along the northern Gulf coast.
625 AM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021 Latest radar imagery showers showers and thunderstorms west of our area beginning to encroach upon the region, with current temperatures hovering in the low to mid 60s. Should see precipitation gradually begin to diminish from west to east heading into the evening and overnight period, as the sfc cold front departs the region. Otherwise, look for dry conditions and seasonably cooler temperatures to prevail during the holiday weekend. Heading into the new week, expect upper level ridging to build over the western CONUS.
416 AM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021 (Issued 337 AM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021) Today through Friday: High pressure will hang on for one more day over the Upper Great Lakes region keeping us dry. Cloud cover will gradually creep into the area from the east during the late morning and early afternoon hours as an area of low pressure approaches from the east. While showers and some thunderstorms should be ongoing around the area of low pressure, as this swath of precipitation moves east into the broad and overall obstinate area of high pressure, which will move into the lower Great Lakes by tonight, the precipitation will encounter some dry air, and it will take some time for the atmosphere to saturate.
With passage of this cold front today, and another wave this evening, expect cooler temperatures the next couple days, with highs today in the upper 70s, upper 60s to low 70s for Friday. Given the increased cloud cover and cooler temperatures today, threat of severe will be low with this second round of storms, though PWATs continue to be above normal.
424 AM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021 A cold front extends from the upper plain states across into the New England states and down towards the Gulf Coast and is the focus of most of the storm activity this morning. In the middle and upper portion of the atmosphere the ridge that has been hanging over Texas is expected to spread into Louisiana and this will lower the chances for storms during the afternoon hours. a small area of low pressure near the coast of Nicaragua is producing some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
High pressure in the Upper Great Lakes and an upper-level ridge building into the Midwest has resulted in clearing skies and below average temperatures. While some daytime clouds are anticipated, dry weather continues today and northeasterly winds will limit highs to the lower half of the 80s once again. Low pressure is expected to form near southwestern Iowa to northeastern Kansas along with the development of a predominantly horizontal cold front across the Central Plains.
703 AM EDT Thu Sep 2 2021 A broad expanse of high pressure reaching down from northern Ontario maintains ideal aviation conditions today. Northerly wind today becomes light and variable tonight as the high moves overhead into Friday morning. * None Geopotential heights are on the rise this morning as synoptic troughing over New England absorbs the remnants of Ida, amplifying and progressing east through the day. This gives room for sharp midlevel ridging to build in locally, the associated subsidence ensuring a very dry column and rising surface pressure. The ridge axis slides overhead tonight with winds becoming nearly calm. The 850mb thermal trough will have largely departed to the east by Friday, but thinking the increased cloud cover will counteract the warming potential to result in high temps tomorrow similar to today's forecast.
Moderately strong northerly flow aloft exists across the Tennessee Valley this morning, in the gradient between a longwave trough over the Eastern CONUS and a strengthening mid-level high centered over the Red River Valley of TX/OK. Winds aloft will veer to the northeast and diminish over the course of the day as a ridge at the 500-mb level expands northeastward into the Mid-MS/Lower-OH Valleys, with mostly sunny skies and dry conditions anticipated for the local area. Highs will range from the lower 80s in elevated terrain to the m-u 80s in valley locations. Consensus guidance from the latest suite of global models continues to suggest that the Southern Plains mid-level ridge will become centered across eastern OK/western AR during the short term period, but should gradually expand eastward to encompass much of the Gulf Coast states.
652 AM EDT Thu Sep 2 2021 Mainly dry and cooler weather will persist through the end of the week and into the start of the weekend as high pressure remains across the Great Lakes. High pressure over northern Ontario will build south across the Great Lakes today and tonight. As the remnant low of Ida merges with the mid-level trough over New England and eastern Quebec late in the week, mid-level ridging will push across the central and eventually the eastern Great Lakes by the middle of the weekend.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to initiate around 1000-1200 LST over mountain peaks and ridges and then move off those terrain features into the later afternoon hours.
An approaching trough continues to bring a southwesterly flow aloft for scattered clouds and a slight chance for a shower or two over the eastern portions of the plains this morning.
A cold front will trail southwest from the low into central NE. 00Z HREF probabilities suggest that locations south of I-80 would be most likely to see the highest rainfall totals (i. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to end from north to south across the area tonight with the passage of the surface cold front.
So we continue to carry increasing PoPs overnight, the highest of which are in the Big Horns region. The broader trough axis aloft will gradually swing through the Rockies and high plains on Friday. The trough axis shifts east Friday night with decreasing clouds and precipitation in the evening.
947 AM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021 (Issued 947 AM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021) The current forecast remains on track as high pressure continues to slowly work its way across the upper Great Lakes today.
1003 AM EDT Thu Sep 2 2021 High pressure will provide a rain-free forecast through the rest of this week, with noticeably cooler and drier air.
604 AM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021 (Today and tonight) Hot and dry today with upper ridging suppressing shower and thunderstorm development. Lee trough along the Texas and New Mexico state line will bring southeast to south winds of 5 to 15 mph.
Clouds gradually increase throughout the day signaling the approach of a trough and accompanying cold front Thursday night. A ridge across the southern CONUS causes the front to stall out somewhere between I-70 and I-44. This ridge then begins to push back against the front shoving it back northward to somewhere between US36 and I-70.
Upper low within the heart of Canada and attendant upper troughing in the Pac NW is expected to traverse and dig into the Great Lakes/ON/QB region as upper ridging presently in the Midwest to Hudson Bay flattens and retrogrades. With the passing of this upper trough, there may be some passing shower activity mainly confined to central MN and LOW area, however much drier air underneath the trough will prevent more widespread precip.
Mid level ridging will continue to influence the weather across South Texas with temperatures expected to warm into the mid-upper 90s across much of the Coastal Plains to temperatures in the triple-digits out west across the Brush Country.
Heavy rain will remain the main threat (not enough instability for more robust storm development), thanks to a very favorable environment with strong southerly moisture transport ahead of an area of low pressure (winds may gust over 30 mph this afternoon across and east of the Prairie Coteau) and PWATs around/in excess of 1. The last upper level low pressure trough to move across the region will be Friday night before the wet pattern changes. The models and ensembles show an upper level high pressure area building up over the southwest U. This will put our region on the eastern/downward side of the upper high with general subsidence, clear to partly cloudy skies along with cooler northwest winds at the surface.
Look for cooler temperatures today with widespread showers and thunderstorms. A cold front across northwestern ND will slowly advance eastward today brining some showers and thunderstorms. Lows tonight may be quite cooler for some areas with 40s and 50s possible for most areas. Upper low well into Canada looks to swing a trough across the area on Friday. Otherwise look for continued cooler temperature for Friday, with perhaps a breezy at times west wind. Labor Day weekend then sees weak to flat ridging across the area.
Upper level trough over the eastern U. shifts offshore today, ushering in an upper level ridge centered over the south-central U. This ridge embeds us within mid to upper level northerly flow. Increased subsidence from the ridge and dry air advected in aloft will help to dry out the atmospheric column. Temperatures climb into the upper 80's and lower 90's today and Friday, with some cooler low temperatures tonight in the middle to upper 60's, and lower 70's along the immediate coast.
651 AM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021 An amplified upper trough currently extends across the Great Basin as an upper ridge extends across TX northward through the western Great Lakes. A cold front will advance eastward this afternoon, and will be an additional focus for thunderstorm development across eastern areas. Did keep temperatures warmest from 80-85 across the southwest where, warmer temperatures aloft to mix down. The next upper trough will move in on Friday,with a chance for showers and thunderstorms across the western Sandhills. Chances increase Friday evening as the upper trough passes through.
A pleasant, seasonable night was unfolding across all of eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois and far northeast Missouri with high pressure fully in control. Will note that per forecast soundings, there is a LOT of dry air to work through in the low-levels, so there is potential precipitation timing could be delayed a bit in subsequent forecasts. With this forecast, have maintained a fairly conservative forecast of around a quarter to half an inch of rainfall across the CWA, with this higher amounts favored to southeast Iowa and northeast Missouri.
958 AM EDT Thu Sep 2 2021 Mainly dry and cooler weather will persist through the end of the week and into the start of the weekend as high pressure remains across the Great Lakes. High pressure over northern Ontario will build south across the Great Lakes today and tonight. As the remnant low of Ida merges with the mid-level trough over New England and eastern Quebec late in the week, mid-level ridging will push across the central and eventually the eastern Great Lakes by the middle of the weekend.
Mid to upper level ridge anchored over northwest TX remains in control while at the surface south to southeast winds bring more Gulf moisture into the region.
These locations will see influence from a low pressure system tracking well south of the region across the state of Wyoming. A warming trend is also expected in the next several days as upper ridging becomes more established over the western U.
/Issued 340 AM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021/ Isolated convection has been maintained over far SE OK early this morning within a corridor of deeper moisture and slightly cooler mid level temps. Near persistent conditions expected Friday while convection edges closer to NE OK late Friday as ridging aloft flattens.
730 AM EDT Thu Sep 2 2021 High pressure will provide a rain-free forecast through the rest of this week, with noticeably cooler and drier air.
/issued 424 AM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021/ A cold front extends from the upper plain states across into the New England states and down towards the Gulf Coast and is the focus of most of the storm activity this morning. In the middle and upper portion of the atmosphere the ridge that has been hanging over Texas is expected to spread into Louisiana and this will lower the chances for storms during the afternoon hours. a small area of low pressure near the coast of Nicaragua is producing some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Thunderstorm development should be closer to KLBB/KPVW today however confidence in a thunderstorm occurring within 5 miles of either of these sites still remains on the low side.
Southwest flow will increase on Friday ahead of a Pacific trough located over the Great Basin region by Friday morning.
1053 AM PDT Thu Sep 2 2021 Temperatures will trend warmer the next several days.
Otherwise, expect dry weather the next 24 hours, with lows tonight in the low to mid 70s and highs Friday mainly in the mid and upper 90s.
The colder air associated with the Canadian prairie trough across our north will keep high temperatures below normal on Friday. As that trough axis and stronger energy sweeps through Wyoming and southern Montana, some rain showers seem likely, but most model consensus keep that accumulating rain near or south of Highway 200. By late Friday night, that trough axis will have clear eastern Montana and skies will clear from the west.
The low will continue to press east overnight and looks to weaken and fizzle out as it reaches eastern Iowa/northern Illinois by the afternoon hours Friday. Expecting this time period to see the higher QPF totals but don't anticipate much of a flood threat as rain rates are likely to be 1"/hr or less. Introduced mention of drizzle as the day progresses Friday, especially along the cold front before it completely clears the forecast area by the Friday afternoon. Trended cooler for max temps Friday with cloud cover and rain/drizzle anticipated for much of the day.
A mid-level ridge centered over northern Texas and Oklahoma will continue to give us an easterly flow throughout the column. The best chance for rain will be along the sea breeze and Northern Ranchlands, where they will be a bit closer to the highest PWATs.
Surface temperatures have warmed into the low 80s and may reach the mid 80s in some spots late this afternoon. Mostly clear skies prevail while upper level ridging begins to build into the Southeast.
23 degrees in Elk City, 25 in Polebridge, 29 in Pierce Idaho and also in Seeley Lake. Temperatures also got close to the freezing mark in the low lying locations outside of a few of the major cities in western Montana including Missoula and Kalispell. Frost will be possible again in the high valleys tonight. The Labor Day Weekend forecast will be delightful with warmer temperatures, no precipitation chances and breezy afternoons.
Some daytime destabilization on Friday along with increasing moisture along a cold front present across Kansas into western Missouri is expected to lead to additional scattered showers and thunderstorms, primarily across our northern CWA and potentially any leftover outflow boundaries from the morning convection.
Temperatures range from the low to upper 80s across the area along with plentiful sunshine and comfortable humidity levels. Dewpoints have mixed down into the lower 60s areawide, with only a small cumulus field across the eastern half the forecast area. Ida will finally move off the coast overnight tonight, as the upper low lifts northeast. The current upper level pattern is dictated by a large trough over the PAC NW, a ridge of high pressure over the Central U. , and an upper low over the Northeast. The upper pattern will become more diffuse tomorrow as the ridge flattens out across the interior U. and the trough out west lifts north along the U. The ridge is expected to weaken over the Mississippi Valley and allow several small perturbations to translate through the region this weekend.
1239 PM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021 An amplified upper trough currently extends across the Great Basin as an upper ridge extends across TX northward through the western Great Lakes. A cold front will advance eastward this afternoon, and will be an additional focus for thunderstorm development across eastern areas. Did keep temperatures warmest from 80-85 across the southwest where, warmer temperatures aloft to mix down. The next upper trough will move in on Friday,with a chance for showers and thunderstorms across the western Sandhills. Chances increase Friday evening as the upper trough passes through.