Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
502 AM EST Tue Feb 7 2017 A strengthening low pressure system will move into Lower Michigan today, causing unseasonably warm temperatures, areas of fog, showers, and a few thunderstorms across our area during this time frame. Much colder temperatures will move into the area by Wednesday, along with a chance of snow, as an upper level trough moves through the area.
729 AM EST Tue Feb 7 2017 Update/Aviation A low pressure system will deepen as it tracks through the region today. Another low pressure system tracks up the Ohio Valley on Wednesday and could clip Southern Lower Michigan with some light snow.
Snow levels rise as the warm front and precipitation band shoots north, and by afternoon in most areas will range in the 5500-6500ft. We are going to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for the higher elevations of the south-central highlands AND the Magic Valley. For the highlands, this is above 5500ft and north toward the Lava Beds in the Magic Valley. The higher up you go, the higher the wind. A broad upper ridge over the west will do little to curb precip Wed night thru Thu night as Pac moisture continues to stream in. The ridge will keep temps up.
The tightening gradient between high pressure across the western Atlantic and an approaching strong cold front will provide a warm southwest flow to the area today. out ahead of an approaching short wave trough. A southerly flow will continue through tonight veering to the southwest Wednesday as a cold front approaches the area.
Rain chcs will decrease during the late aftn and evening as the trough moves east and drier mid level air filters into the region. A cold front will approach the region but gradually stall and weaken as flow aloft becomes parallel to the boundary. The next cold front will finally move into the area late Wednesday, but enough drier air in the mid-levels will limit shower development. Northwesterly flow aloft will deepen as a trough digs over the eastern CONUS, helping to push the front through the area Wednesday night.
The passage of the dry line later this afternoon along with the mid-level trof will help to produce a deep W/SW flow at the lower levels. Also of concern will be the lower RH levels as the dry/warm air mixes down to the surface. The drying airmass along with a strong CAP should prevent the de- velopment of significant POPS with the passage of a cold front on Weds night. Slightly cooler temperatures are progged for Thurs as offshore winds develop. This (generally) light CAA will be short- lived as the associated upper trof moves off quickly to the east. The upper level ridging across Central U. (in the wake of the front) is expected to break down over the weekend as the next upper trof (storm sys- tem) moves in from the Pacific and begins to deepen in/around the California Baja.
527 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2017 Regional obs this morning showing a cold front situated from about cntrl MN to n-cntrl Neb to nern WY.
As the high pressure shifts eastward away from the Keys this afternoon and tonight, winds will veer from the southeast to south and continue to veer on Wednesday and become light and variable by Wednesday night.
Record breaking temperatures are expected this afternoon as readings to rise into the mid to upper 70s before a cold front arrives around sundown.
257 AM PST Tue Feb 7 2017 A weak trough will continue periods of light rain over and west of the mountains today with showers becoming more sparse tonight.
407 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2017 Today will be much warmer than average again, as colder air remains north of Oklahoma. A colder airmass centered over western Canada will shift southeast, and a cold front marking the leading edge of the ridge will enter northern Oklahoma overnight/early Wednesday.
Brushed back the high at BRO just slightly due to likely formation of a sea-breeze later this afternoon.
Depending on the arrival of the warmer temps. snow and freezing rain could become significant and widespread across the east slopes of the washington cascades and ykm/kittitas valley and the adjacent areas.
Initial rain today will be focused along the northward surging warm front extending from Plains-to-Great Lakes low pressure. Used the high res model template to reconstruct POPs for the near term period given the superior performance overnight. In short, categorical showers, with possible elevated thunder, are expected to give way to a break/intensity reduction as the warm front develops north of the area. Coverage and intensity should reescalate as the systems cold front is pulled into the area this evening.
The cold front has moved through the forecast area, with ample moisture moving into eastern Oregon. Moisture with this system will spread north through the morning and afternoon, with above freezing temperatures noted for much of the area today.
651 AM EST Tue Feb 7 2017 High temperatures will increase to well above normal through Wednesday with high pressure off the Southeast U. An approaching cold front will bring the risk for showers and thunderstorms.
/issued 407 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2017/ Today will be much warmer than average again, as colder air remains north of Oklahoma. A colder airmass centered over western Canada will shift southeast, and a cold front marking the leading edge of the ridge will enter northern Oklahoma overnight/early Wednesday.
The rain is shifting NE along the warm front, which extends from the Midwest to the Great Lakes. Concerns for the day are focused on possible damaging wind gusts - especially over the ridges - given the strength of the wind field and expectations of a higher temperature and deeper, surface- based mixing layer.
A warm front is bringing moderate to heavy snow to much of Southern Oregon high terrain and areas east of the Cascades this morning. The warm front is not making much northward progress this morning, so snow levels will make it up to about 5000 to 6000 feet this morning and not much higher before precipitation begins to diminish. Blowing and drifting snow can be expected in many areas, especially in the higher terrain and in northern Lake and Klamath Counties.
424 AM MST Tue Feb 7 2017 Warmer than average temperatures, for the most part, are expected into the middle of the week along with mostly dry conditions. The upper trough currently moving through the region continues eastward across the plains today with zonal flow aloft becoming more amplified by Wednesday as a ridge builds over the western U. and a series of fast moving short wave troughs moves across the high plains mainly north of the forecast area through the middle of the week. As a result, a backdoor cold front pushes from northeast to southwest across the forecast area by late this afternoon. Temperatures over the eastern sections of the forecast area on Wednesday will be nearly 20 degrees cooler than today with highs in the lower 40s as the cooler area of high pressure pushes deeper into the plains states.
UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE WSW AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL HELP TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY. ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH.
630 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016 Quiet weather will continue over the next several days as upper- level ridging continues to dominate the pattern across the central U. In the short term, a weak cold front will slide through the region tomorrow morning, slightly reducing temperatures and veering and increasing winds; but without any moisture, skies should remain clear and allow temperatures to still warm into the mid to upper 60s throughout the forecast area.
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BRING MID-CLOUDS FROM 10KFT-15KT OVERNIGHT.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 51 70 46 61 / 0 40 30 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 50 66 45 57 / 10 60 50 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 51 67 46 57 / 10 60 40 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 48 64 43 54 / 10 60 60 50.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SW DURING THE DAY BEFORE BECOMING NW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
534 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016 AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO RUN WARMER THAN NORMAL BUT NOT BY AS MUCH AS CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR RESULT IN STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR WED WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS.
1017 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016 06Z TAF CYCLE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE PANHANDLES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS 25-30KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY AND DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. LN /ISSUED 300 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/ THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRY AIR ADVECTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AIR COLUMN BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB BECOMING SATURATED BY 03Z AS LIFT INCREASES ALONG DEEPENING WEDGE OF COOLER AIR BEHIND SURFACE FRONT.
Temperatures tonight are expected to be in the lower 50s, with upper 40s in river valleys in southern sections including the Llano, San Saba, and Pecan Bayou. However, temperatures will be 5 to 7 degrees warmer than today, with full sun and little cold advection. Highs in the lower 80s are expected. 04 (Wednesday night through Tuesday) Ridging aloft will prevail through the end of the work-week, maintaining warm and dry conditions across the Southern Plains.
THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY REMAINS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
A few showers are moving through the area along a weak cold front this afternoon but will not impact any TAF sites.
756 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LGT/VAR WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT WESTERLY FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. AS THE RAIN FALLS FROM THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER 8000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WE WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. ANOTHER NICE DAY IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. ESSENTIALLY ACTING AS A BLOCKING RIDGE BETWEEN THE EAST AND WEST COAST TROUGHS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL UNDERGO A SLOW WARMING TREND BENEATH THE RIDGE.
846 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 A SERIES OF MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. L/W TROUGH BEGINS ITS AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE EASTERN U. WITH FREEZING LEVEL BETWEEN 8500-9500 FT. SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY UNDERNEATH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH.
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH COOLER HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE. /ISSUED 539 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/ WX MAP SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS TX INTO LA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO USHER COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA WITH COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DRY WX WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
1231 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.
THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE RISING HEIGHTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A AMPLIFIED RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL WARM TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. THUS PROMOTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S CWA WIDE.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. WAS CONCERNED THAT SOME HAIL WOULD DEVELOP TODAY DUE TO THE LOW WET BULB ZERO AND FREEZING LEVELS SEEN ON THE 12Z GRB AND INL SOUNDINGS.
Based on the continuing favorable environment for organized convection, and the fact that the surface cold front has yet to move through our forecast area, we extended this afternoon's severe thunderstorm watch (#141) through midnight EDT. After this time we expect the buoyancy to diminish enough for an end to the organized severe storm threat (though an isolated strong to severe storm can't be ruled out ahead of the southeastward-moving cold front).
946 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST AND COVERS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND THE NORTHEAST. THERE WAS ALSO SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG REPORTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS.
848 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 A SERIES OF MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. L/W TROUGH BEGINS ITS AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE EASTERN U. WITH FREEZING LEVEL BETWEEN 8500-9500 FT. SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY UNDERNEATH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH.
THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND A RISK OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH ARE IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A LONGWAVE TROF THAT WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE TO THE COAST.
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH OVER NEXT FEW DAYS. WILL SEE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE MAINTAINS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THU. MAIN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA OVER NRN CALIF. SO MON WILL BE BIT COOLER.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE DESSERT SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG MERIDIONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION WILL BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY. COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
WE WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. ANOTHER NICE DAY IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. ESSENTIALLY ACTING AS A BLOCKING RIDGE BETWEEN THE EAST AND WEST COAST TROUGHS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL UNDERGO A SLOW WARMING TREND BENEATH THE RIDGE.
912 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AN EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE AREA. PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BUILD DOWN THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS. A RAINY EVENING IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST MAXIMIZES.
850mb temperatures will warm about 4 degrees Celsius tomorrow, which will support surface temperatures in the afternoon generally in the lower to mid 70s (with some upper 70s farther south closer to the Oklahoma border).
High amplitude upper level ridging will begin to build into the area late this week and into the weekend, bringing above normal temperatures back to the region. For the latter half of the weekend, the ridging will begin to break down as an expansive upper low approaches from the west.
1030 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016 FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE ON COLD FRONT. DRIER AIR MASS AND SOME DECREASE IN WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S MOST AREAS. RELATIVELY QUIET START TO THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED WITH UPPER TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS. WITH BLOCKING PATTERN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ADVANCE INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGING ENCOMPASSES THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THIS EVENING. DOWNSTREAM FROM AN UPPER TROUGH SITUATED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS RIDGE BROUGHT DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND A RISK OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAVE BLANKETED THE REGION THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY IF NOT A FEW DEGREES WARMER WHICH IS LIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE DISTRICT. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH ALL INDICATIONS OF THE TROUGH FORMING A CLOSED LOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING VERY SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WYOMING KEEPING CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
/ISSUED 344 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/ COLD FRONT THAT MOVED OFFSHORE IS JUST NOW PUSHING SOUTH OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. LONG WAVE TROUGH MARCHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL DIG AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THIS WEEK.
951 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 UPDATE A COOLER SHOWERY PERIOD IS EXPECTED BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND PUSH EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
451 PM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016 High pressure will begin to slowly shift east over the next couple days allowing more moisture into the region.
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AIDED BY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FROM SHARP MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND LEFT EXIT REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING. STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SURGE EXPECTED BEHIND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THIS EVENING BRINGING A LINE OF SHOWERS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME OF THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHEN THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
618 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016 An amplified longwave RIDGE was located over western North America with a TROF over the east, leaving N-NW flow over our region. It will be accompanied by a surface cold front. Min temps tonight will range from the lowest values--in the mid to upper 40s--in southeast MO where the skies will remain clear the longest, to the low-mid 50s for areas further north where clouds and a late FROPA will keep the temps from dropping off too much.
1119 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016 An amplified longwave RIDGE was located over western North America with a TROF over the east, leaving N-NW flow over our region. It will be accompanied by a surface cold front. Min temps tonight will range from the lowest values--in the mid to upper 40s--in southeast MO where the skies will remain clear the longest, to the low-mid 50s for areas further north where clouds and a late FROPA will keep the temps from dropping off too much.
620 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016 THE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIODS REMAIN QUIET WITH RISING HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS. WHILE UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. UPPER LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRANSLATE TO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY SETTING UP AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK. WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW TO THE WEST IN THE PACIFIC. OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY/MILD CONDITIONS. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 70S STILL LOOK ON TRACK.
625 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 300 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/ THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRY AIR ADVECTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.
/ISSUED 539 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/ WX MAP SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS TX INTO LA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO USHER COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA WITH COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DRY WX WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
1027 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016 SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS SHEARS OUT. BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH AXIS ROTATING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING.
GREATEST CHANCE SHOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO LOUISVILLE LINE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THREATS /GIVEN DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY LOW FREEZING LEVEL/. IMPRESSIVE COLD CORE ALOFT FOR EARLY MAY FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH AND AMPLIFY QUICKLY WITH THE CLOSED TROUGH.
PARENT SHORT WAVE WAS JUST DROPPING THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES WITH DEEP FORCING AND COLD FRONT ALOFT AIDING LIFT. ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NOTED ALONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL MN AT 19Z. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT OVERNIGHT LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS AS WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW.
936 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
1026 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
621 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016 THERE IS A NARROW RIBBON OF WARM ADVECTION RIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA BY THE EVENING AND THE RESULT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER TOMORROW.
PLAN ON OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BUT WE WILL STAY IN A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO AROUND 60 OVER NORTHEAST IOWA.
Showery and Cooler Through Mid Week. Look for a cold front and upper low to dive into our region for tomorrow. This is a potent upper low with good forcing for ascent. Wed night/Thu we'll see lingering shower activity on the NW side of the upper low mainly focused east of I-65 on Thurs. Temps will stay on the cool side with Wed night/Thu night lows in the low to mid 40s and Thu highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
735 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.
THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IS ALSO A BIT DRIER THAN EXPECTED WHICH HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO COOL SLIGHTLY FASTER. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BRING MID-CLOUDS FROM 10KFT-15KT OVERNIGHT.
1225 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CLOUDS THAT ARE ROTATING ARND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.