Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure will then dominate the weather during the day on Thursday with mostly sunny skies expected. Overnight into early Friday morning, low temperatures will decrease into the low to mid 60s. A mid to upper level ridge building in over the area along with southwesterly surface winds will aid in bringing afternoon high temperatures well into the 80s.
308 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020 Showers and thunderstorms return today through part of Friday with a trough of low pressure.
Scattered low-level cumulus has developed across the higher terrain over the past hour or two, but GOES-16 visible satellite imagery shows very little in the way of vertical development. In general, upper-level ridging will support a trend toward warmer/drier weather through Friday. Best chance will be along & immediately adjacent to the higher terrain.
Ridging aloft continues to build across FL, leading to deep easterly flow that will strengthen through the afternoon. Onshore winds will offer a gradual relief to hot temperatures, with afternoon highs peaking in the low 80s at the coast, but still reaching the mid 90s across the far interior, where the moderating effect of oceanic air won't arrive until later in the day.
Highs are forecast to reach the mid and upper 80s with dewpoints remaining in the low 70s.
Quiet conditions are expected for tomorrow and Friday as high pressure moves through the region.
A mid to upper level ridge has kept a lid on convection through the afternoon and evening, and activity over GA has remained to our south. Chattanooga Airport, TN 94 74 94 74 95 / 20 20 50 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 93 74 93 73 93 / 20 20 60 30 60 Oak Ridge, TN 93 73 92 72 93 / 20 20 60 30 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 91 70 89 69 89 / 30 30 80 30 70.
Issued by National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1126 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020 A closed low was over central Manitoba this afternoon with an upper trough extending south across the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes. A disturbance embedded within the upper trough was indicated across central MT into western WY and is forecast to move east southeast into western Nebraska tonight. A warm front will setup across northern Nebraska in the afternoon, with a chance for thunderstorms to develop. A subtropical ridge will remain centered across the Southern U.
Meanwhile, the higher dewpoints and very warm air ahead of an advancing front will lead to strong instability by late afternoon/evening. Lastly, temperatures today will be warm, but even warmer come Friday ahead of the cool front.
Deep layer ridging will prevail today, with convection being forced along the seabreezes and a moisture gradient. Through the morning hours, steering flow will remain southerly on the back side of the departing low pressure. Flow will become more easterly later in the day as ridging builds down the Eastern Seaboard. Due to the slightly drier air, the warmer temperatures won't have much of an effect on heat indices compared to yesterday.
Increased ridging in response to a digging Midwest trough will support warm and dry weather tonight; however, with the development of swly flow in the wake of the crossing ridge-axis, further advection of warm, moist air should be anticipated. Forecast soundings suggest additional severe potential should be largely hampered with this second wave given aforementioned ridging and unfavorable timing. Neutral temperature advection in westerly flow in the wake of the cold front passage will support slightly cooler, yet continued above average high temperature on Friday. Model ensemble solutions continue to indicate an upper high persisting across the southern half of the CONUS through the period. Showers and thunderstorms will move in from the west ahead of low pressure early Thursday afternoon, generally from 18Z on, while diurnal heating and orographic lift create isolated chances over the eastern ridges.
The implications of said trough will be minimal, save some isolated precipitation in the form of showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and tonight in far northwest Montana along the Canadian border. Temperatures on Friday will be a few degrees cooler than what we experience today, with breezy conditions continuing in the afternoon. The Canadian trough will then amplify over the Alberta- Saskatchewan border, but moisture stays north of the border for the most part as flow aloft flattens and shifts to the west.
At the same time, a cold front will progress southeastward into our region tonight into tomorrow. The cold front is now expected to make it through the majority of the region on Thursday, with model guidance indicating a mostly dry day cross much of the region. After a very warm night with temperatures in the mid 70s in most locations, tomorrow looks to be somewhat cooler. Those readings combined with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, will still push heat index readings into the 95 to 105 range.
Surface observations are showing temperatures generally in the lower to mid 80s across the area.
Daytime high temperatures will trend slightly warmer going into the weekend. Southwest California remains between two parked upper level highs, one centered near Texas and the other off the northern California coast. The low clouds and fog are starting to push ashore, albeit a little later than it did last night.
Low pressure over Illinois this morning will quickly push across Indiana and exit the state this afternoon. High pressure is then expected to build across Indiana tonight and persist across the area into the weekend. Surface analysis early this morning shows low pressure in place over Eastern Illinois. A MCS was found on the south side of the low progressing southeast.
High pressure will continue to produce dry weather today. This will provide breezy conditions for Friday afternoon with slightly cooler temperatures through the weekend.
This is due to high pressure overhead/light wind, clear skies, and a very damp lower boundary layer. Otherwise, a decent Thursday setting up as that high pressure slides slowly southeast. A mid-level trough (evident on water vapor over Manitoba/Dakotas presently) will rotate east pushing a weak cold front across northern MN into northern WI this evening. Friday will see warm air advection across the area in increasing southerly flow ahead of low pressure over the Plains.
Ridge of high pressure will continue over the are tonight as an upper level trough approaches western Canada. This trough will flatten the ridge on Thursday allowing a little more westerly wind to develop Thursday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will remain hot Thursday but with a little cooling occurring along the east slopes of the Cascades as the westerly winds brings some cooler air over the Cascades. Flow backs to more westerly tonight in advance of approaching front/trough that will swing through the region tomorrow. Cooler with highs in the 80s to low 90s.
303 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020 (Today and Tonight) Today, the core of a upper level ridge will remain over West Central Texas, while the 850 mb thermal ridge weakens a little further than where it was yesterday, with 850 mb temperatures lowering to 24-28 deg C. The upper level ridge will continue to suppress any potential showers/storms. Tonight, lows will be in the low to mid 70s as dewpoints increase back into the mid to upper 60s in southerly low-level flow. (Friday through Thursday) The high pressure ridge is expected to remain in place leaving hot and dry conditions across the region.
Issued by National Weather Service Rapid City SD 339 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020 Latest upper level analysis has a long wave trough over the Central Plains extending from a closed low over over central Manitoba as a ridge builds over the western High Plains and northern Rockies. On Friday, warmer temps move into western and central Nebraska. A subtropical ridge remains centered across the Southern U.
1021 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020 KLSX radar and GOES IR imagery showed a linear convective complex dropping slowly south through western KY at 10 pm - one of four MCS rotating clockwise around the perimeter of an upper level height ridge centered over TX.
933 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2020 The longwave trough to our north will keep dry westerly flow over the area through Thursday. Concurrently, ridging to our south will aid in bringing warmer temperatures back today and tomorrow, with highs Thursday peaking into the mid to upper 90s east of the Divide.
A weak cold front was over extreme southern Illinois across northwest Arkansas and into northwest Texas. The cold front will move slowly south today and will move into northern sections of the Mid-South. Temperatures will remain quite warm today with highs in the low to mid 90s. Temperatures will remain quite warm with highs in the low to mid 90s.
/Issued 950 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020/ Weak cold front extends across southern Missouri and northern Oklahoma this evening. Precip chances also across nern OK late tonight as ongoing convection in the High Plains spreads eastward overnight.
From that low a cold front drapes south and westward along the Ohio River. Lows tonight heading into Friday morning should stay in the low 70s, but those in southern Indiana and along the Ohio except for Louisville will likely see the 60s. What's left of Thursday's cold front will have settled into southern Kentucky on Friday. Upper ridging sprawling across the southern half of the United States will give us a hot and humid weekend with widely scattered primarily diurnal storms. Highs both days will be in the lower and middle 90s with heat index readings peaking around 100.
Today through Friday night Pattern this morning is dominated by a broad mid level ridge which covers the majority of the central and southern conus. Position of this anticyclone has pushed the overall storm track across the central plains and into the Ohio Valley. With the center of the high over central Texas, numerous upper impulses will travel along the northern periphery of said feature. High temperatures Friday will be just a touch cooler over the northeast with increased pops and cloud cover but remain hot elsewhere. Ridge will begin to expand over the area as the period ends.
/issued 1021 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020/ KLSX radar and GOES IR imagery showed a linear convective complex dropping slowly south through western KY at 10 pm - one of four MCS rotating clockwise around the perimeter of an upper level height ridge centered over TX.
1239 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020 Short wave trough still looks to bring some showers/storms later tonight to mainly northeast sd and west central mn. Heat index values, assuming there is no morning convective debris or any other atmospheric weirdness that would affect the high temperature forecast, will be up into advisory territory. Shear is also marginal (0-6kt about 30-35kts), so the severe weather risk is mostly dominated the high CAPE values.
High pressure will expand west into the Great Basin heading into the upcoming weekend. Cooler and more stable air resides north of this boundary where max temps once again remained just a bit below climo along the Wasatch Front. Meanwhile just enough mid level moisture rotating around the periphery of the upper ridge allowed for a cluster of high based convection across the central mountains late this afternoon into this evening.
217 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2020 An upper ridge will move across the area on today with a high pressure system. An upper trough moves into the area on Friday with a cold front. It will be a hot day ahead of the front with highs in the lower 90s mainly south of the Missouri River.
But overall, temperatures will likely be a bit warmer today than yesterday.
An elongated anticyclone centered over the Southeast United States will expand and slightly strengthen over the next several days. Thereafter, high pressure will remain well north of our area, resulting in a gentle to moderate easterly flow. With a deep layered western Atlantic ridge axis aligned across the Gulf coast region, a moist gentle to moderate easterly flow will reach well into the troposphere.
Hot and muggy conditions expected Friday and through the weekend, as the upper ridge remains locked in across the southern CONUS.
Highs will be a couple degrees warmer than yesterday speaking in the mid 80s with eh afternoon sun after the morning cloudiness.
Tonight Through Friday An upper level ridge of high pressure will remain in place across the area thru the short term.
East of this low. dewpoints in the upper 50s being reported in the Panhandle with low 30s west and south of the low. Surface front extends from the low. attention turns to fire weather as a low pressure system track across southern Alberta and northern Montana.
Today, the surface cold front stretching from the Great Lakes low to the southwest will stall out just south of the Ohio River as high pressure passes to the north. As a result, shower and storm activity today will be limited to the south of the front, with the highest chances in the southern Kentucky Pennyrile. Tomorrow, a warm front associated with a low in the Northern Plains will help lift the stalled out front northward to near the Ohio River which will increase shower/storm coverage relative to today from a middle Mississippi Valley disturbance.
337 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020 A ridge of high pressure extending from the Canadian maritimes southward across eastern New England will provide fair weather today. A warm front will approach tonight into Friday and may aid in the development of showers and a few thunderstorms. At 06z a 1030 millibar ridge extends from the Canadian maritimes southward through eastern New England. the warm front pushes east across the area with clouds and a few showers and thunderstorms. Dangerous heat levels possible this weekend into early next A warm front will continue to cross the region Friday evening, allowing few a few thunderstorms.
Our foggy morning is thanks to yesterday's rain and high pressure moving through the region.
/issued 422 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020/ SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): A strong 500mb ridge anchored over northern TX/southern OK will continue to provide very warm to hot conditions across the CWA through the short-term period. An inverted mid-level trough, currently over the northeast Gulf of Mexico, will retrograde west-southwestward today into Friday. This mid-level feature is expected to approach the lower Texas Friday afternoon. Better rain chances are expected on Friday as deeper moisture arrives and the approach of the inverted mid-level trough. High temperatures today and Friday will generally range from the low to mid 90s near the coast to the 102 to 106 degrees across the west, near Falcon Lake and Zapata County.
Light/variable winds and breaks in the high cirrus have allowed for decent radiational cooling and areas fog. Areas further to the northwest have a little drier air, but have been clearer, and are cooler. Rising heights and building H85 thermal ridge will bring hot temps to the area Fri and esp Sat. Sun afternoon through Tue night continue to look cooler and more active as several disturbances track across the northern CONUS. This will result in cooler mid level temps (less capping) and probably a series of boundaries in or near the area.
Given the enhanced WAA across the region, expect temperatures to climb into the upper 80s to low 90s, with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s.
High pressure aloft continues to keep the area dry and mostly clear today and Friday.
For today, satellite and upper-air analysis shows a large ridge of high pressure centered over Texas, with a closed low centered off the coast of SoCAL. Mid and low level water vapor imagery shows a plume of atmospheric moisture and clouds rotating around the high, stretched across New Mexico and eastern Arizona.
328 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2020 Weak ridging aloft will build over the area today bringing mostly sunny and dry conditions to the area.
553 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2020 Current surface map places weak trof across northwest South Dakota into northeast Wyoming. Surface trof settles across central South Dakota this afternoon. Low level thermal ridge peaks across the area Friday, pushing temperatures into the 90s.
Will continue to refine forecast if necessary to pin down the areas with the higher chances, which as of right now appears to be across far NW AR and along the KS/MO borders. Hot and muggy conditions expected Friday and through the weekend, as the upper ridge remains locked in across the southern CONUS.
An upper-level area of low pressure will be located just offshore of Southern California today through Friday morning. This cyclone aloft will retrograde westward Friday afternoon and Friday night. A ridge of high pressure will build westward over California this weekend.
325 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2020 High pressure aloft continues to keep the area dry and mostly clear today and Friday.
Continued night through morning low clouds and fog will push into coastal areas and the lower valleys. The latest water vapor imagery indicates a weak upper-level trough of low pressure just west of the Channel Islands this morning, and an upper-level ridge of high pressure centered over north Texas. Onshore flow will continue to weaken over the coming days as the weak trough wobbles northward and is displaced by the ridge to the east builds westward.
When combined with highs generally in the lower 90s, heat index values Friday afternoon will increase to 98 to 103 in most areas.
302 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2020 Current surface map places weak trof across northwest South Dakota into northeast Wyoming. Surface trof settles across central South Dakota this afternoon. Low level thermal ridge peaks across the area Friday, pushing temperatures into the 90s.
534 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020 Showers and thunderstorms return today through part of Friday with a trough of low pressure.
Southerly flow has allowed for additional moisture to return to the region, and this morning most areas in the western third of the mid state are showing dewpoints in the low 70s. That trend looks to continue today as dewpoints in the low to mid 70s will spread eastward, and with temperatures just as hot as yesterday, heat index values will exceed 100 degrees and get around 105 degrees for areas west of the Plateau today. MLCAPE remains high thanks to the high moisture and temps at around 1500-2000 J/kg, however shear is quite weak. Soundings show high PWAT values around 2 inches from this afternoon through Friday afternoon, which is around the 95th percentile for this time of year, and along with slow storm motions and a high freezing level, heavy rain and isolated flooding is also a possibility.
SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): A strong 500mb ridge anchored over northern TX/southern OK will continue to provide very warm to hot conditions across the CWA through the short-term period. An inverted mid-level trough, currently over the northeast Gulf of Mexico, will retrograde west-southwestward today into Friday. This mid-level feature is expected to approach the lower Texas Friday afternoon. Better rain chances are expected on Friday as deeper moisture arrives and the approach of the inverted mid-level trough. High temperatures today and Friday will generally range from the low to mid 90s near the coast to the 102 to 106 degrees across the west, near Falcon Lake and Zapata County.
Vertz Weak ridging aloft will build over the area today bringing mostly sunny and dry conditions to the area.
High pressure will weaken today and shift to the north. Convection will remain limited under the high pressure's influence, but an isolated thunderstorm could be possible along the seabreeze this afternoon. An upper level low will travel west over the Gulf, which will lead to an inverted trough over the area Friday.
539 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020 Showers and thunderstorms return today through part of Friday with a trough of low pressure.
1052 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020 A sprawling area of high pressure centered near the Northeast United States stretches southwest into the northern Gulf of Mexico. What used to be an undulation in the easterlies along the southern flank of ridge a few days ago (see San Juan's sounding history), has deamplified and transitioned to just broad curvature. Although there is a small swath of drier air near and WNW of Andros Island, we see no reason to sway from the higher than normal PoPs given the profile and the weak low-level cyclonic convergence. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes will prevail across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys through the forecast period as high pressure persists to our north.
624 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020 Latest upper level analysis has a long wave trough over the Central Plains extending from a closed low over over central Manitoba as a ridge builds over the western High Plains and northern Rockies. On Friday, warmer temps move into western and central Nebraska. A subtropical ridge remains centered across the Southern U.
/issued 303 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020/ (Today and Tonight) Today, the core of a upper level ridge will remain over West Central Texas, while the 850 mb thermal ridge weakens a little further than where it was yesterday, with 850 mb temperatures lowering to 24-28 deg C. The upper level ridge will continue to suppress any potential showers/storms. Tonight, lows will be in the low to mid 70s as dewpoints increase back into the mid to upper 60s in southerly low-level flow. (Friday through Thursday) The high pressure ridge is expected to remain in place leaving hot and dry conditions across the region.
These recent rainfall episodes in the OK Panhandle and northern TX Panhandle may put a dent in the forecast highs for today by keeping this area slightly cooler compared to the south central and southeast TX Panhandle. Otherwise, for today and tonight, the upper level ridge of high pressure meanders around just to the east of the forecast area. Southwest flow aloft around the northwest periphery of this ridge may drag some showers and thunderstorms into far northwest sections generally along and northwest of a KGUY to KDHT line late this afternoon and evening. On Friday and Friday night the rather broad upper level ridge of high pressure remains over the region, with pops restricted to the western OK Panhandle and far nwrn TX Panhandle Friday evening.
401 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020 A cold front will move through the area early this evening. A cold front will move across the area through early evening. Front will stall out just to the south of the CWA on Friday, with a small bubble of high pressure overhead. Dry forecast continues Friday night, although high pressure will already be retreating to the east with a return flow beginning to set up. Westerly mid level flow which across the Great Lakes with a ridge axis to our south centered from the lower MS VLY thru the TN VLY this weekend.
The upper ridge is boss across the region this forecast period.
304 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020 As the upper level trough passes overhead, the surface boundary continues to edge SE through central KY. Mild morning min temps in the upper 60s to low 70s will give way to afternoon highs in the low 90s. Dew points in the low to mid 70s will push Heat Indices into the upper 90s with some possibly hitting 100.
Sunny and warmer today and a little warmer again Friday before a cold front Friday night.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 94 75 94 74 / 20 40 20 40 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 74 93 73 92 73 / 20 50 20 40 20 Oak Ridge, TN 74 92 73 92 72 / 20 50 20 40 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 71 89 69 89 69 / 20 60 20 50 20.
Cloud cover has lingered across east central Kansas keeping highs a bit cooler in the low to mid 80s. Have maintained low POPs tonight into Friday morning across the western and northern portions of the area as showers and storms that form in the High Plains overnight may progress into these areas before dying out.
Currently, there is a ridge of high pressure over much of the eastern half of the CONUS but by early Friday morning, it will continue its easterly transition with the high pressure still remaining in control for the next few days which will result in hot/humid temperature values.
The trend toward warmer & drier conditions will persist for the remainder of the period w/ widespread highs in the 90s to near 100 F along/east of the Laramie Range.