Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
459 AM CST Mon Dec 26 2022 (Today through Tuesday) Some cirrus clouds have moved into central and eastern Texas early this morning ahead of a mid and upper level trough that will be moving from the central High Plains into the southern Plains through the day today. The main result will be a northerly wind shift that will last for about 24 hours before becoming southerly again, a final shot at freezing low temperatures for northern and eastern portions of the CWA Tuesday morning, and highs on Tuesday that will be similar or slightly cooler than what is expected for today (mid 50s to low 60s).
As the low dives southeast, the window for snowfall across the eastern portions of our CWA are quickly closing. Any additional accumulations of snow this morning are expected to be little to none for much of the area as the low pressure system begins to exit the Great Lakes Region. High pressure will quickly build in behind this clipper system bringing dry weather and light winds through Tuesday. As the high pressure exits winds will shift to southerly and temperatures will continue to increase as we head into mid week.
641 AM EST Mon Dec 26 2022 Low pressure dropping southeast into the Tennesse Valley today and tonight will clouds to the area.
720 AM EST Mon Dec 26 2022 High pressure builds toward the region starting Tuesday, supporting a gradual warming trend and light winds. Temperatures will be near normal into mid-week, then stronger ridging builds late in the week to support above normal temperatures.
Another system approaches Tuesday morning bringing another chance for wintry mix primarily in the form of freezing rain. Similar to the last freezing rain event on Christmas Eve, there is uncertainty on the impact of a near-surface dry layer which will act to reduce any currently expected accumulations.
915 AM EST Mon Dec 26 2022 High pressure builds toward the region starting Tuesday, supporting a gradual warming trend and light winds. Temperatures will be near normal into mid-week, then stronger ridging builds late in the week to support above normal temperatures.
One more day of this ridge dominating the forecast is in store for your Monday. Light winds and periods of high clouds will accompany this warmer weather trend. Beginning Tuesday, this system will break down the ridge and allow ample moisture to funnel into our region along with breezier winds.
Much warmer than normal temperatures will continue through Tuesday with mostly clear skies and light winds. Significant rainfall is possible with snow over the high peaks.
915 AM EST Mon Dec 26 2022 A weakening Alberta clipper low pressure system will approach the region today and move through tonight. Another night with sub-freezing temperatures forecast for Tuesday night.
824 AM EST Mon Dec 26 2022 Light snow chances are expected today under an area of weak low pressure. Dry, warm weather is expected late week under high pressure and southwest flow.
539 AM CST Mon Dec 26 2022 (Today and tonight) A weak cold front will through the area this morning but will have little effect on our weather, other than shifting winds to the north in its wake.
(Today through Tuesday Night) A low pressure system moving through the Midwest will increase WAA across SE Texas today bringing high temperatures this afternoon into the mid to upper 50s (and wouldn't out-rule a 60 degree reading here and there). This passing low pressure system will usher in a weak/dry cold front tonight bringing us a temporary cool down into Tuesday. Low temperatures tonight will be in the low 30s south of I- 10, upper 20s between I-10 and Huntsville, and then low to mid 20s north of Huntsville. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the low to mid 50s for most of the region. South to southeasterly flow will develop Tuesday night ushering in warmer temperatures compared to tonight with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Some localized areas of mixed valley precipitation is anticipated, especially across valleys of far northwest Montana (Kalispell northward to the Canadian border) where valley cold pools have maintained below freezing temperatures.
535 AM EST Mon Dec 26 2022 Light snow chances are expected today with a weakening area of low pressure. Dry weather an a warming trend is then expected through late in the week under high pressure.
216 PM EST Mon Dec 26 2022 (This afternoon through Tuesday) Most locations besides a few areas across far North GA, where cloud cover has increased, have risen above freezing this afternoon! Current readings range from the low 30s across the north of mid 40s across south-central GA. The 12z sounding for FFC and subsequent forecast soundings still show a good bit of dry air in the low levels so any precip will struggle to reach the sfc. Precip is expected to come to an end shortly after midnight as the main upper trough starts to push through the region.
A coastal trough continues to sit out over the waters, however no shower development is expected with this trough at this time. Another area of high pressure along with a weak cold front will move over the region tonight, which will help to clear out the skies and result in light and variable winds that turn towards the north overnight. This weak front will help push the coastal trough out of the area.
Temperatures ranged from the upper 20s northeast to mid 30s southwest, with the freezing line located roughly along I-24. We will continue to see pockets of light snow or flurries through the rest of this afternoon and evening until a trough axis crosses the area overnight. Also, as we go into the evening and temps slide back into the 20s, refreezing of existing puddles could cause slick spots. Skies will become mostly sunny and temperatures will rise around 10 degrees warmer than today.
1152 AM EST Mon Dec 26 2022 Influence of deep E CONUS trough aloft remains over the region this morning although it is expected to gradually weaken and shift east into the Atlantic by mid week allowing ridging to build over the area during the latter half of the week. At the surface, ridging over the Gulf coast and SE U.
A ridge of high pressure continues to be situated over the area. This will continue to provide tranquil weather conditions through Tuesday with above normal temperatures, with highs in the 70s across most of the lower desert communities.
Also, radar echoes to our west are moving east and may bring a bring a brief freezing rain and/or snow shower today. Another system approaches Tuesday morning bringing another chance for wintry mix primarily in the form of freezing rain. Similar to the last freezing rain event on Christmas Eve, there is uncertainty on the impact of a near-surface dry layer which will act to reduce any currently expected accumulations.
117 PM MST Mon Dec 26 2022 An upper ridge just to our west will flatten a bit tonight allowing mild Pacific air to move into the area.
113 PM EST Mon Dec 26 2022 High pressure to the southwest will remain in control through the week.
A pesky stratus deck has continue to nudge south through the day as an upper level trough shifts off to the east. A surge of high pressure will arrive overnight, leading to a northerly wind shift and drier conditions. Another cold night is in store but temperatures remain above freezing across much of the region. Those across the Victoria Crossroads and Northern Coastal Bend may briefly see freezing temperatures early Tuesday morning but not for a long enough time period to warrant another Freeze Warning. Northerly winds tomorrow in the wake of our high pressure surge will help keep highs a handful of degrees cooler than today with temps topping out in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
959 AM CST Mon Dec 26 2022 Temperatures are rising into the low to mid 30s. Later this evening across northwest Tennessee and the Missouri bootheel some more light snow showers and snow flurries are expected in association with a cold front. The Winter Weather Advisory will be canceled at noon as most areas will be above the freezing mark.
1026 AM EST Mon Dec 26 2022 High pressure to the southwest will remain in control through the week.
1222 PM EST Mon Dec 26 2022 Low pressure dropping southeast into the Tennesse Valley today and tonight will clouds to the area.
Latest satellite and analysis shows a deep upper trough heading eastward across the central Plains toward the Mississippi Valley. Closer to home, a weak cold front has moved through west central Texas, bringing increased northwest winds to the area, but little effect on temperatures. We will see one more night of temperatures below freezing with weak cold air advection overnight behind the front.
Easterly winds around 5 knots this afternoon will become light tonight, then become northerly around 5 knots Tuesday behind a weak surface cold front moving south to the coast late tonight into Tuesday. Most guidance is advertising cloud bases around 5k' behind the front, with a dry airmass below, and a saturated cloud layer below freezing. Temperatures today are expected to top out in the upper 40s to low 50s, with temperatures Tuesday topping out in the low to mid 50s well inland from the coast, upper 50s along and south of I-10. Tonight, the cold front will bring little more than a wind shift.
1202 PM CST Mon Dec 26 2022 (Today through Tuesday Night) A low pressure system moving through the Midwest will increase WAA across SE Texas today bringing high temperatures this afternoon into the mid to upper 50s (and wouldn't out-rule a 60 degree reading here and there). This passing low pressure system will usher in a weak/dry cold front tonight bringing us a temporary cool down into Tuesday. Low temperatures tonight will be in the low 30s south of I- 10, upper 20s between I-10 and Huntsville, and then low to mid 20s north of Huntsville. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the low to mid 50s for most of the region. South to southeasterly flow will develop Tuesday night ushering in warmer temperatures compared to tonight with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.
In addition, a reinforcing cold front will send another chunk of colder air down into the region later this evening allowing temperatures to fall back into the low 20s tonight. Precautions should continue with respect to freezing pipes for at least one more night. Tuesday will feature increasing southerly winds as surface pressures begin to fall throughout the Plains ahead of increasing troughing over the western U. It'll be a little cooler across our eastern areas where highs will remain in the mid/upper 40s. Tuesday night low temperatures will be 10-15 degrees warmer than tonight.
1144 AM CST Mon Dec 26 2022 (Today and tonight) A weak cold front will through the area this morning but will have little effect on our weather, other than shifting winds to the north in its wake.
With blocking to our east fully removed in the next 24 hours, expect a pattern shift to a more chaotic and wet pattern, as the eastern Pacific opens up for at least a week. This storm track will be driven by a southward extension of the polar jet, which has been enabled by the release of the northeast CONUS blocking and the retrogression of the eastern Pacific ridge. Ahead of this pattern shift, the ridge peaks over the region today and allows for a warm and pleasant day, albeit with increasing high clouds. The ridge collapses on Tuesday, with increasing southwest winds, but still relatively mild.
The Keys remain on the eastern envelop of moisture associated with a persistent upper level trough. The lower levels however remain dry as noted on this mornings sounding with a much drier layer below 700 mb. Temperatures continue to be cold with current readings in the lower to mid 50s. Winds should lull briefly mid week as they shift further northeasterly, then refreshen later in the week as the ridge builds eastward into the Atlantic.
John's counties which will see low temperatures just above freezing. Areas on the immediate coast may see temperatures just above freezing despite being in the warning. Johns, but widespread frost is not forecasted there due to warmer temperatures and a light breeze expected.
The other feature noticeable using visible satellite data and surface observations is a cold front pushing across Oklahoma. The cooler spot is going to be areas along and east of Highway 77 where cooler air lingers for a longer period. Southerly flow returns across all areas by Tuesday afternoon into the evening helping overnight lows to stay above the freezing mark and ranging from the mid 30s to low 40s under partly cloudy skies.
These bands are in association with several vort maxes dropping southeast through the region with the digging upper trof and the associated ascent. I can't rule out a few flurries in the evening but in general they should be short-lived as the upper trof quickly exits southeast and heights aloft begin to rise later this evening and overnight.
250 PM EST Mon Dec 26 2022 Cold high pressure will bring dry conditions and well below normal temperatures into mid week.
1235 PM EST Mon Dec 26 2022 High pressure to the southwest will remain in control through the week.
Temperatures have risen into the low to mid 40s, so there's definitely no chance for any wintry weather south of Birmingham until later on after sunset, but even then moisture will be exiting the area and only a few sprinkles or flurries at most are anticipated. There's a chance for a few slick spots on the roads as temps cool back below freezing in some of those areas. Clouds are gradually expected to decrease from west to east during the overnight hours and one more night of freezing temperatures can be expected.
1117 AM CST Mon Dec 26 2022 (Today through Tuesday) Some cirrus clouds have moved into central and eastern Texas early this morning ahead of a mid and upper level trough that will be moving from the central High Plains into the southern Plains through the day today. The main result will be a northerly wind shift that will last for about 24 hours before becoming southerly again, a final shot at freezing low temperatures for northern and eastern portions of the CWA Tuesday morning, and highs on Tuesday that will be similar or slightly cooler than what is expected for today (mid 50s to low 60s).
230 PM CST Mon Dec 26 2022 Key Messages: -Warmer temperatures -A couple minor winter impact events possible (~30% chance) Main concerns will be a couple of light snow, wintry mix, freezing rain potential events (mainly north of highway 2). High pressure is now located south of the region as the warm sector from the first Canadian system approaches the region. The main uncertainty will be if/where the strongest forcing approaching from the west can interact with the low level moisture. Any QPF would be light, but as the temperature aloft rises above freezing a wintery mix (likely sleet given very cold low level airmass still in place) would be likely. This event has a better potential for freezing rain given that the airmass aloft will already be above freezing and the low level airmass will not be quite as cold.
200 PM EST Mon Dec 26 2022 High pressure will bring dry weather most of this week with a warming trend. New Year's weekend will be mild, but could also be rainy as low pressure approaches from the Ohio Valley. Lowered the high temperature forecast for Nantucket to mid 30s. Rather weak high pressure at the surface, so not much synoptic support for precipitation. A gradual warmup is anticipated this week as closed low lifts well into Canada and is replaced by ridging along the East Coast courtesy of the building subtropical ridge.
The rain and cloud cover is once again resulting in a temperature forecast challenge today, with temps remaining on the cooler side of guidance. Temperatures tonight will be warmer than the previous several nights but still below normal, with mid to upper 40s around the lake, to mid and upper 50s for the east coast metro.
A look at national water vapor satellite this afternoon shows an amplified upper pattern, with deep troughing over the eastern CONUS and strong ridging over the western states. This is what pushed this morning's cold front south through our area, bringing a few flurries and a quick 10-15 degree temperature drop.
(This evening through Tuesday) A cold front barreling southward through Kansas has entered north central Oklahoma and will continue southward through the day, resulting in a temperature gradient of coldest northeast to warmest southwest.
115 PM MST Mon Dec 26 2022 A corridor of fog along the leading edge of the cold front has been observed on the Kanorado KDOT webcams. With the colder air pushing in, high temperatures will be much cooler today with most of the area warming into the 30's and 40's. Tomorrow, much warmer temperatures are forecasted with the flow across the area mainly from the southwest and mostly sunny skies. Some 70's also wouldn't be out of the question using the higher guidance 850mb temps which is in the upper teens celsius. Currently don't have confidence for that yet, but am definitely on the higher side of guidance. Otherwise, the next low pressure system is forecasted to take shape just west of the area, but not move through during this period.
(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Mesoanalysis shows the cold front working its way into the Big Bend Area this afternoon, but this is not stopping afternoon highs continuing to recover from the big freeze a few days ago. Tuesday, return flow will increase in the east in response to leeside troughing on the Front Range ahead of the next upper trough. Out west, southwest flow will increase over the higher terrain, developing a modest mountain wave signature over the Guadalupes. Lows will continue to moderate, with most areas staying above freezing for the first time in a week or so.
As this occurs temperatures should rise fairly quickly to the low 40s west of Highway 27 before we lose diurnal heating. WAA and cloud cover will overspread the area overnight, which will help keep low temperatures hovering around the freezing mark over the majority of the western area whereas eastern areas look to fall into the upper teens as they will still be feeling the effects of this mornings clipper system. Into Tuesday, effects of ridging over the western CONUS influence the plains.
222 PM EST Mon Dec 26 2022 Low pressure dropping southeast into the Tennesse Valley today and tonight will clouds to the area.
Lingering cloudiness has kept temperatures on the cool side, but we are still several degrees warmer than yesterday.
1038 AM EST Mon Dec 26 2022 High pressure will bring dry weather most of this week with a warming trend. New Year's weekend will be mild, but could also be rainy as low pressure approaches from the Ohio Valley. Lowered the high temperature forecast for Nantucket to mid 30s. Rather weak high pressure at the surface, so not much synoptic support for precipitation. A gradual warmup is anticipated this week as closed low lifts well into Canada and is replaced by ridging along the East Coast courtesy of the building subtropical ridge.
As a result lows for tonight have been bumped up a couple degrees but it will still be cold with lows in the lower 20s expected in most locations. By Tuesday morning, the trough will be through the region and by Tuesday afternoon a ridge will be building in. Clouds will be gone by late morning and Tuesday afternoon will be sunny and warmer with highs in the lower 40s for most of the Tennessee Valley. Temperatures will be warmer through the latter half of the week, with highs reaching the 60s in the TN Valley this weekend.
234 PM CST Mon Dec 26 2022 18Z surface data has low pressure near KSPI. A cold front ran southwest from the low across southern Missouri and into Oklahoma. Dew points in the teens and 20s ran from the Ohio Valley into the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Plains. Otherwise expect quiet but cold conditions tonight as high pressure moves through the Midwest. Details: Tuesday night through this weekend: Deep trough moves into the Rockies with a southwest flow aloft. This will allow southerly winds to bring a much warmer airmass into the area.
Thereafter, high pressure will build overhead and remain in control through much of the week. Low pressure will track toward the area this weekend. The 12z IAD sounding shows a very dry profile in the lower-middle levels of the atmosphere, with dewpoints currently near zero at the surface. Elsewhere, it will be a cool and cloudy afternoon, with temperatures only making it into the low to mid 30s. By daybreak tomorrow, the upper level trough axis will be situated directly overhead. Large scale subsidence in the wake of the departing trough will encourage clouds to break up, leading to mostly sunny skies tomorrow. Winds will stay light as high pressure remains overhead, and high temperatures will range from the 20s/lower 30s in the mountains, to the lower 40s from the Virginia Piedmont to southern MD.
Highs above normal are expected into 2023, with several days with highs above freezing expected.
1257 PM EST Mon Dec 26 2022 A weakening Alberta clipper low pressure system will approach the region today and move through tonight. Another night with sub-freezing temperatures forecast for Tuesday night.
Easterly winds around 5 knots this afternoon will become light tonight, then become northerly around 5 knots Tuesday behind a weak surface cold front moving south to the coast late tonight into Tuesday. Most guidance is advertising cloud bases around 5k' behind the front, with a dry airmass below, and a saturated cloud layer below freezing. Temperatures today are expected to top out in the upper 40s to low 50s, with temperatures Tuesday topping out in the low to mid 50s well inland from the coast, upper 50s along and south of I- 10. Tonight, the cold front will bring little more than a wind shift.
Still rather cold across the CWA this afternoon, but warmer air is not too far to the west, where the warm front lies. Low-level temps begin increasing as well as the warm front pushes east, and all signs point to rising temps through the overnight hours, with most areas in the teens and 20s by sunrise Tuesday. Looks like we'll finally see CWA-wide milder temperatures on Tuesday as a warmer air mass will be in place. The good: warmer temps as arctic air should be long gone.
643 PM EST Mon Dec 26 2022 Cold high pressure will bring dry conditions and well below normal temperatures into mid week.
739 PM EST Mon Dec 26 2022 Warmer weather is expected mid-week under high pressure and southwest flow.
633 PM EST Mon Dec 26 2022 High pressure will remain the dominant feature through late week. Unsettled weather is possible over the weekend as low pressure approaches from the west. Early this evening: Satellite imagery shows the forecast area situated in the cloud-free zone between the cirrus shield offshore and increasing overcast skies approaching from the west associated with a sharp mid-level trough diving into the Southeast. Trough will advance across the Rockies and into the Carolinas/Georgia region to start the forecast period Tuesday. Way too much dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere to support any sort of precip with the trough. High temps on Tuesday will run similar if not a few degrees warmer than today, upper 40s to lower 50s.
Warmer temperatures will result from this change in pattern as it will dissipate the fog. Latest GEFS and European ensemble models agree that a strong trough will move into our area starting tonight. Both model ensembles strongly agree on the timing and strength of this initial trough. The ensembles also agree on a second strong trough moving in for this weekend bringing a very wet end to 2022. However, the two troughs differ as the first one will pump in warm moist air from an atmospheric river.