Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Have kept temps as is for the most part this afternoon but adjusted hourly trends to reflect cooler morning temps due to the clouds. A low pressure system over southern TX is forecast to lift towards the region tonight. As the low arrives expect SHRA to increase in intensity with cigs possibly dropping down to IFR. Thunderstorms will likely accompany the arrival of the low but the overall coverage remains uncertain at this time. The cold front will move through after 18Z Friday but there is some suggestion that fog may develop Friday night.
108 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 Drier and warmer weather is forecast for today and most of Friday. Mostly sunny skies are expected for the rest of the day under high pressure. Areas along the ridges will see more in the way of cumulus clouds. CL Upper level ridge will build over the Upper Ohio Valley tonight and slowly move eastward through Friday. Model guidance seems to agree on timing but the northern extent of precipitation still differs, mainly due to differences in the transfer of energy to a coastal low as the upper trough deepens. Generally stayed close to a pop forecast inherited from the previous shift, which emphasizes the highest pops from I-70 on south.
/Issued 549 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016/ 12Z TAF CYCLE An upper trough will move across the Panhandles today bringing an end to any lingering showers. Subsidence will prevail behind the departing upper trough with IFR to MVFR ceilings becoming VFR by 18Z to 20Z today at all three TAF sites. /Issued 421 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016/ An upper level trough is pushing through the area today and bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms today. Mid level height rises Friday bring quieter weather as ridging sets in briefly as an upper level low dives south over the western conus. This low will lift a bit and slide east through the weekend.
the large closed low pressure system along the west coast will usher in precip from the south, impacting central Idaho and southwest Montana in the morning and gradually lifting northward.
Ceilings will lower overnight as next low pressure system approaches from the SW. TYS may also get to MVFR before end fcst period based on progression of the low center.
On Friday the low level flow will once again shift from southerly to more southwest to west with the west coast sea breeze moving well inland.
As the upper level trough approaches the area tonight.
607 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 A weak upper level low will cross the area tonight.
Trough aloft will move across the southeast states on Sat and we will still have considerable moisture and instability for scattered showers/storms.
302 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 High pressure will continue to provide fair weather into tonight and Friday, with lows tonight in the mid to upper 40s and highs on Friday near 70 degrees.
Temperatures this afternoon will continue to be well above normal, but much cooler air will move in for Friday and the weekend. A large upper level low pressure system over the PAC NW is pushing a cold front through our cwfa this afternoon.
Overnight, an upper level short wave trough over the central Plains will swing eastward, developing a new frontal system out ahead of it. The stalled frontal boundary along our western zones will weaken overnight as this developing system moves across the lower Mississippi valley.
250 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016 High pressure ridge drifting eastward this evening, and light and variable winds will slowly become more east/southeasterly overnight. Upper level heights will begin to build in response to upstream troughing over the West Coast.
147 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 An upper trough of low pressure will move across the region today and Tonight, producing showers and scattered thunderstorms.
/issued 347 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016/ Broad region of convection ahead of an approaching upper trough has begun to slowly move into central TX. Gradually tapering pops from the west durg the day Friday and upper ridge allowing for partly sunny skies and fairly seasonal temps thru wknd.
100 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016 Southerly winds will increase slightly today as high pressure over the Great Lakes slides east.
247 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 High pressure building southeast into the region will bring a clear to partly cloudy and chilly night tonight.
305 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016 Scattered showers and thunderstorms have at this point stayed over the higher terrain due in part to large amounts of CIN over the plains and calm transport winds. Models still indicate large CAPE over the mountains and into the higher foothills. Most cells will not move over the urban corridor as cells seem to die once they move off the higher terrain. Storms over the higher terrain will die off by 6 pm with clearing on the plains. With the ridge moisture is more limited for Friday but there is still a chance of scattered thunderstorms over the mountain with CAPE values of 1000+ j/kg with a slight chance on the plains by the late afternoon. Upper level low will be over the northwest part of the country while a ridge resides over the central states.
153 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 High pressure builds today giving a brief dry period.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): Upper trough centered over SE CO and NE NM will be lifting Northeast across the Central Plains during the short term period.
with high pressure regaining control to end the week.
329 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 High pressure will build over the region Tonight and Friday which will end any lingering shower activity early this evening. This high will bring spring temperatures back to the area for Friday with lots of sunshine.
Patchy fog will also be possible due to the wet ground and the high amount of low level moisture in the atmosphere. /issued 211 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016/ Precipitation chances will end in the short term tonight through Friday night as an upper level trough across Texas pushes east of the region. In its wake upper ridging will take place allowing temperatures to rebound to more normal values by Friday afternoon under sunny skies.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a trough over NM with southwesterly flow over Texas. There was a weak ridge behind it over the southern Great Basin. At the surface, a trough was moving across our eastern counties and a stationary front was stretched along the coast from Houston to Corpus Christi and then inland to Zapata. The upper trough will move across Texas tonight. Most of the area should be dry Friday as the upper trough and surface front move away.
149 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 An upper level low will keep the chance for an isolated shower or two over central NY and northeast PA this afternoon. High pressure will build over the region on Friday bringing spring temperatures back to the area.
240 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 High pressure will build over the region Tonight and Friday which will end any lingering shower activity early this evening. This high will bring spring temperatures back to the area for Friday with lots of sunshine.
307 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 High pressure will build over the area through Friday morning.
315 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016 Closed low over the Pacific Northwest. Ridge from the northern plains into central Canada. There is closed low over the northeast conus with an upper trough along the eastern seaboard. With instability some increasing moisture along the trough will keep thunderstorms in the forecast.
Approaching upper low will continue breezy conditions through Friday.
A weak ridge across the Florida Keys is broadening north and northwestward this afternoon as a low pressure system in the north western Atlantic lifts out northeastward.
1205 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016 Today will start sunny, and it will be rather nice throughout the day into the evening hours, but a trough starting to eject from the Desert Southwest will spread a bit of moisture north today into tonight kicking up the cloud cover across the region as well as bringing us the remote possibility of rain late tonight. Models runs have been trending the track of the ejecting Desert Southwest trough further south over the past several runs, taking the focus for rain late tonight and shifting it south.
249 PM PDT THU MAY 19 2016 Cooler than normal temperatures in store through the weekend, along with mostly cloudy skies and rain showers.
211 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016 Precipitation chances will end in the short term tonight through Friday night as an upper level trough across Texas pushes east of the region. In its wake upper ridging will take place allowing temperatures to rebound to more normal values by Friday afternoon under sunny skies.
Dry conditions and increasing temperatures are forecast through the end of the week as weak high pressure builds across the area. Low pressure will return this weekend resulting in breezy conditions along with slightly cooler temperatures. Dry air remains clearly evident on water vapor imagery this afternoon as low pressure continues to slowly move into the central plains. This isn't much of a surprise given surface dewpoints in the mid 30s and temps in the low to mid 80s.
High pressure over the Great Lakes and low pressure developing in the lee of the northern Rockies will maintain a southerly flow across western and central ND today. Tonight, a ridge aloft becomes pinched off over the northern plains but this will for the most part suppress convection across the region.
318 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 A weak upper level low will cross the area tonight.
A large upper trough cutting off over the pacific nw is progged to continue dropping south tonight.
338 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 High pressure building southeast into the region will bring a clear to partly cloudy and chilly night tonight.
219 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016 20z surface analysis had lee trough over central MT into central CO with nice southerly flow over the CWA. Convergence along lee trough assisting high based convection over northeast WY per local radar. Storms will move slowly east this afternoon and evening, moving into an area of 250-500J/kg MLCAPE created by mid-upper 40s dew point pooling ahead of lee trough. Boundary layer moisture continues to increase on southerly flow with lee trough moving little. Given rising heights and implied subsidence over the CWA, thunderstorms may be few and far between and likely rooted near terrain or occur along lee trough.
307 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016 High pressure located over Michigan this afternoon lead to diurnal CU and pleasant weather conditions. Highs were reaching the low 70s with dewpoints dropping into the 30s and 40s with light winds. As this high shifts east through the short term, return SW flow will bring in high clouds and a schc for rain across the southernmost CWA. Friday looks to be cloudy and slightly cooler than today as high clouds take over. With the high clouds in place, have decreased temps slightly from SuperBlend.
1232 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016 A transitory ridge will move across the area today. The ridgeline will move east of the area friday and that will allow increase southerly surface winds ahead of the large trough along the west coast.
134 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 Aviation High pressure will essentially be parked over the Great Lakes region from today right through the weekend.
Daytime temperatures will be well below normal over the region due to a trough of low pressure.
317 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be coming to an end this evening as an upper level low pressure system moves east of the area.
327 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016 Conditions throughout the Mid-South today are more reminiscent of mid October than mid May with temperature readings only topping out in the low to mid 70s, dew points ranging from the low 40s to the mid 50s, and mostly clear skies. However, no severe storms are expected due to the area being worked over by the time the cold front moves through the area.
402 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 A series of low pressure systems will move northeastward along a stalled front in the forecast area through Friday.
342 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 High pressure will build to the east coast through Friday.
The high will move east tonight allowing a low pressure system in the western Gulf to develop with inverted trough up through the Tennessee Valley.
508 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 High pressure building southeast into the region will bring a clear to partly cloudy and chilly night tonight.
High pressure will shift east today ahead of the next Pacific storm.
153 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 High pressure will keep dry weather across the region today.
The upper low over Washington state will sink into northern California on Friday.
344 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be coming to an end this evening as an upper level low pressure system moves east of the area.
248 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 An upper trough of low pressure will move across the region tonight, with showers and thunderstorms coming to an end.
241 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016 High pressure across Central Illinois this morning with light winds and mostly sunny skies. Sprawling ridge of high pressure extending from the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains will provide mild and dry weather across central Illinois today. Upper low currently evident on water vapor imagery along the coast of British Columbia is still progged to dig southward across the West Coast of the CONUS over the next few days, causing a persistent piece of energy over the Desert Southwest to eject northeastward by the end of the week.
305 PM EST Thu Mar 9 2017 The Florida Keys enjoyed partly clouds skies early this afternoon as winds from the east interacted with the warmer land keys and clouds were able to develop downwind from the island chain. High pressure over the southeast United States today will weaken tonight and tomorrow.
/issued 914 AM EST Thu Mar 9 2017/ Morning water vapor satellite imagery is showing a band of upper level moisture followed by a swath of dry air moving through the northern Florida Peninsula associated with a weak cold front. Overall the forecast looks on track with warmer than normal weather continuing into the weekend. A weak cold front will continue to drop south through the area today, with high pressure filling in behind the front and winds remaining around 10 knots or less.
259 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017 For the remainder of the afternoon, a cold front will continue to push south across the CWA through the evening and overnight. Afternoon high temperatures will be affected both by the position of the warm front in addition to rain-cooled areas impacted by ongoing storms. As a result, afternoon temperatures will range from the lower 50s across northern Missouri to the mid 60s to lower 70s for the southern counties. A Canadian airmass will fill in behind the aforementioned cold front tonight, bringing Thursday night lows back to the sub- freezing mark for most areas.
This along with the frontal forcing along the lifting warm front, available shear, steep lapse rates and increasing instability will allow for the development of thunderstorms from now into this afternoon. We have used readings closer to MOS guidance which does increase dewpoints back into the low to mid 50s ahead of the front later today. A strong upper speed max will begin to carve out a trough in the eastern U.
A warm front has lifted north of the area then a weakening cold front will follow tonight.
High pressure that was centered over the lee side of the Canadian Rockies had worked into the forecast area as of 08Z. The high pressure will affect the region today through Friday. It's possible this will change and a better chance for snow returns, but it looks like an area of high pressure over central Saskatchewan Sat/Sun will be strong enough to keep chances for precipitation minimal across the Northland. In addition, temperatures have trended a bit cooler with highs in the teens to 20s over the weekend, which is around ten degrees below normal.
A weak cold front will move into our northern counties between 3AM and 6AM. Friday, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible tomorrow as the cold front stalls near central portions of our forecast area, and have kept the inherited rain chances for most of the area. The cold front, along with additional cloud cover will result in cooler temperatures tomorrow, especially north of a Sterling City to Brownwood line. 20 (Friday Night through Thursday) A weak cold frontal boundary expected to stall over the northern CWA Tomorrow will retreat northward as a warm front Friday night.
Backdoor cold front is moving into the northern portion of the area ahead of schedule and is further south that most output. So had to reduce the high temperatures in the northeast portion of the area. well above normal temperatures continue today with readings in the low to mid 70s. Northeast winds increase through midnight at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts as a cold front moves through from the northeast. Low temperatures in the low to mid 20s. much cooler (but near normal for this time of year) temperatures expected as forecast area under influence of high pressure. By late in the day warm front noses into parts of far eastern Colorado where warmest temperatures expected.
Temps should be quite warm today, though with those onshore trends it probably will be a couple degrees cooler within a few miles of the beaches. Inland, however will be warmer and some places could be pushing 90. ***From previous discussion*** The ridge flattens out just a skosh on Friday and the offshore flow weakens about a mb.
322 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017 Cold front was settling southward across central MO and southern IL with a very cold airmass to follow. 3 pm temperatures in the dvn cwa ranged from the upper 30s along Highway 20 to the lower 50s in our far south. Tonight: There may be scattered sprinkles late this afternoon and early this evening coming out of a mid deck as the low levels are quite dry. Otherwise, the cold front will continue to push southward as strong (1050 mb) arctic high pressure builds out of Manitoba Canada.
Changes in our weather pattern are ocurring as a middle/upper trough is developing over south central Canada and the Dakotas and will move southeast through the Upper Great Lakes tonight into the Upper Ohio Valley by tomorrow morning. Low pressure develops over southwest Indiana this evening and move eastward allowing high pressure and colder air to move in overnight and Friday. As low pressure moves eastward and high pressure builds in from the northwest ending the precipitation from northwest to southeast going through the early hours of Friday morning.
213 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017 Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into this evening in advance of a cold front that will approach and move through the region tonight. The cold front and storms are expected to move south of the area fairly quickly, exiting the region by midnight. Temperatures Friday night will drop in earnest as the Canadian/Arctic air slides south across the Plains as a ridge develops over the Rockies.
This evening clouds will continue to increase from the west ahead of an approaching cold front, which will bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to southeast Oklahoma, northern Louisiana and southwest Arkansas overnight. Low level moisture along with a strong cold front will cause scattered showers across the region. Daytime temperatures will range from the lower 70s south of I-20, and the mid 60s north of I-20.
340 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017 A cold front will sag south into northern Nebraska this evening, then continue south and stall late tonight across northern Colorado and Kansas.
1232 PM EST Thu Mar 9 2017 Trough/sea breeze front from near KPBI to west of KMIA area terminals at 18z will slowly move inland, providing all east coast sites with E/SE winds 8-10 knots through 03z.
/issued 531 AM CST Thu Mar 9 2017/ /12Z TAFS/ Thick high clouds continue to make it difficult to track the low clouds and MVFR ceilings underneath. This mixture will continue through the morning hours, with models suggesting that the MVFR cigs will eventually climb into the low end VFR range for most terminals by late morning or early afternoon. At the surface, an initial cold front will move south much of the area Friday.
232 PM MST Thu Mar 9 2017 Flat upper level ridge is over the state with upper level moisture dropping SE over the region bringing some mid to upper level clouds. A cold front is forecasted to drop into the NE by the early evening hours bringing gusty winds from the NE with little to no moisture associated with it. Expect warmer temperatures closer to the foothills with the help from downsloping that will keep highs in the upper 60s and lower to mid 60s on the eastern plains.
With a few more hours of high winds near the surface and good llvl mixing, went ahead and extended the High Wind Warning into these locations through this afternoon. Believe the 5 PM expiration time may be too late, since winds will likely diminish before then, but will keep it going until this evening in the event that the cold front to the north takes longer to push southward. Will also have to monitor locations along the Cheyenne Ridge from Kimball to Sidney as winds have gusted between 50 to 55 mph in those areas as well. Slow moving cold front beginning to sag into the northern portions of our CWFA.
As a cold front sharpens to our north tonight, thunderstorms are expected to develop upstream near the MS river and grow upscale.
A cold front will pass through the area early Friday morning, shifting winds to the northeast. This trough will act as a pseudo-dryline with teens and even single-digit dew point temperatures to its west and 40s and 50s dew points to its east. With temperatures expected to push well into the 80s this afternoon (will again trend toward or a bit above the high end of MOS) the result will be very low relative humidity west and the question of convective potential southeast. Surface flow becomes rather light tonight with direction eventually out of the north to northeast with weak low pressure progged from western Permian Basin to Far West Texas.
Overnight, a cold front currently in Kansas will accelerate south and enter our northeast counties around midnight. Also, weak isentropic upglide could wring out some light drizzle north of the front - although the low-levels dry out quickly behind the front so that potential also looks limited.
310 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017 A cold front will move southwest across Oklahoma and north Texas tonight, shifting winds to the northeast, and bringing somewhat cooler weather into the region.
A cold front will move in between 06-12z bringing in the chance for showers and thunderstorms.
250 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017 A surface cold frontal boundary crossed through our cwa overnight/this morning. In the cooler airmass, afternoon temperatures were running nearly 10 degrees cooler than yesterday with readings ranging from the upper 40s in our northern zones to the mid 60s in the south. The low clouds will mix out in the west in the return flow on Friday with mid/high clouds remaining prevalent. Temperatures will trend below seasonal normals with highs averaging in the low 30s to mid 40s (northeast to southwest).
209 PM EST Thu Mar 9 2017 High pressure ridge across the region Today will sink South and weaken Tonight. Weakening cold front will sink South to near the I10 corridor Friday afternoon, with a few showers possible along and North of this area. Friday night: An upper level trough and weak surface frontal boundary will completely push through the southern portion of the region early Friday evening.