Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
126 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 Warm weather will continue across the Ohio valley through Tuesday as high pressure remains off to the southeast and a cold front remains across the midwest. The cold front currently across the midwest will move into the area Tuesday night and then stall across the region.
At the sfc, ridging remains anchored over the mid-Atlantic seaboard and stretches down into the Gulf Coast states. Ridging, both at the sfc and aloft, will dominate the weather pattern here in the Southeast for the next few days.
Gusty, downslope winds and the thermal ridge were able to warm us into the mid 90s and a few 100 degree readings despite periods of cirrus this morning and afternoon. Heights are falling as the upper level ridge sinks further into Texas and shifts slightly eastward as a more zonal flow pattern sets up across the central portion of the country. A cold front over northern Kansas will continue moving southward as high pressure builds southward across CO.
314 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 High pressure centered off the coast of the mid Atlantic states will provide a continuation of mild and dry weather through Tuesday night. Lows tonight will not be too far off from last nights temperatures, but could be just a degree or two warmer. By tomorrow night, cloud cover issues start to come into play, as clouds may start to drift into the area ahead of an approaching cold front.
Dry weather and decreasing clouds are expected Tuesday as high pressure quickly builds in behind the departing low. Highs will be cooler tomorrow, but will remain above average.
Mid afternoon high temperatures so far have warmed into the lower and mid 80s, with south to southwest winds of 5-10 mph. South of this jet, strong for this time of year upper ridging was advancing to the NE from Texas towards this forecast area. The above mentioned upper high moving to the ENE will continue the dry and warm trend. Tuesday as the upper high and warm temperatures aloft are realized, highs should warm into the mid/upper 80s.
showers will linger longest along the higher west facing slopes. strongest winds have occurred over Weld County with northerly downslope off the Cheyenne Ridge. Cooler temperatures and less wind on Tuesday. The flow aloft will be more southwesterly ahead of an upper level trough which will move into northwestern CO late in the day. Strong westerly flow aloft will remain over the state tomorrow night as a short wave trough passes.
239 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 Status quo as the southern Mississippi Valley High pressure will continue its warm and dry grip over the area.
Ridging will continue to build inland this week, eventually becoming centered over the Desert SW.
326 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016 A lingering band of light fog/stratus across far southeast South Dakota/northwest Iowa/southwest Minnesota has created quite the temperature variance across the forecast area this afternoon, with temperatures beneath the stratus holding in the mid 60s, which readings on either side have climbed into the lower-mid 70s. Should be a cooler day with highs in the lower to mid 60s, more sunshine and modest westerly flow.
An upper level ridge will continue to be stretched eastward today keeping dry air in place at the upper levels.
248 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016 Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue over the next few days as the upper level ridge moves overhead. Current forecast has 88 for the high on Tuesday, so possibly some extra mixing from the stronger winds could push the temperature higher, but 88 would be enough to break the record of 87 set back in 1953.
Influence of the mid and upper level ridge continues across South-Central Texas in the short term. Lows will only dip to the low 70s to upper 60s as stratus and partial mixing occurs overnight.
High pressure centered off the coast of the mid Atlantic states will provide a continuation of mild and dry weather through Tuesday night. Lows tonight will not be too far off from last nights temperatures, but could be just a degree or two warmer. By tomorrow night, cloud cover issues start to come into play, as clouds may start to drift into the area ahead of an approaching cold front.
One last storm system will cross northern Utah and southwest Wyoming on Tuesday before high pressure returns for the latter half of the week.
The main weather story for the next couple of days will be the near record warmth across the lower Ohio Valley. A surface analysis early this morning showed high pressure over the Carolinas while a couple waves of low pressure were over the central and northern Plains. Anomalously warm air will surge ahead of an advancing cold front. Plan on mid to upper 80s with the warmer, urban areas possibly reaching the 90 degree mark.
A very weak cold front arrives tomorrow afternoon, and it could result in slightly lower temperatures but will be noticed most with a light northerly wind shift.
A robust warming and drying trend is forecast for the second half of the week as high pressure builds over the region. High pressure will then develop over the eastern Pacific by midweek and build over the West Coast late in the week.
345 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 The latest regional surface analysis shows low pressure continuing to lift into the Ohio Valley with a trailing cold front through central TN and Alabama. Pre-frontal trough over the GA portion continues to be the focus for localized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Satellite imagery indicates the center of the upper low is just east of Joplin Missouri. Dry conditions, and a warming trend can be expected through the rest of this period, as a short wavelength mid level ridge axis develops through the mid south.
320 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Showers are expected through tonight with crossing low pressure.
forecast confidence is high: Low pressure centered over northern IN and OH this morning will continue to pull away to the east today while high pressure builds in from the northwest. Clouds will hang around through the day, with clearing skies northwest to southeast this evening as the drier air arrives with the high. Temps will be below normal today due to the clouds and a cooler airmass in place. Drier air with high pressure building into the region on Saturday will help to scour out the clouds for much of the day. Temps will be cooler near Lake Michigan due to a lake breeze.
319 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Upper-level ridge to build across the region today allowing for mostly clear skies areawide. Temperatures forecast to climb into the low to mid 80s across the ArkLaTex with light south to southeast winds prevailing.
418 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017 The upper low over the Ohio River Valley is kicking off low level moisture on its western periphery. Despite the low clouds, am optimistic for clearing today given the notable dry punch noted on water vapor imagery.
Shower activity is diminishing over the area as a long wave trough moves out to the east and a long wave ridge builds into the west coast. This will bring mostly dry and warmer weather to the area Friday. The ridge will flatten out Saturday and a short wave riding over the ridge will push a weak cold front onshore Saturday.
Winds will decrease Friday afternoon with a warming trend for the upcoming weekend as high pressure rebuilds over the region.
310 AM PDT Fri Mar 31 2017 A powerful low pressure trough moving across the Great Basin will move slowly across Arizona today and into the 4-Corners region by tonight. It will also be on the cooler side today behind the trough.
352 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 A warm front will lift north of the forecast area this morning ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will pass through the area by late morning into early afternoon. High pressure will prevail over the area through the weekend.
328 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017 5490 m upper low currently centered over southern IL continues to produce scattered showers across central IL due to a component of deformation N-NW of the low. High pressure will slowly move into the upper Midwest through Saturday morning.
Cold front moving across forecast area at this time, and is expected to be east of the area by around 12Z-14Z this morning.
/issued 302 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017/ High pressure continues to keep the weather dry today and tonight. however, as a cold front approaches, the high is being pushed eastward, and the pressure gradient across the region is increasing. High pressure builds in for the weekend, with the center well to the north, over the mid-Atlantic states.
As of 3 AM this morning, the main upper level low is located over northern Arizona. Weak northerly flow continues across the Northern Rockies, feeding (so to speak) into this parent low pressure system.
For 12z Aviation discussion below The upper low over the Ohio River Valley is kicking off low level moisture on its western periphery. Despite the low clouds, am optimistic for clearing today given the notable dry punch noted on water vapor imagery.
451 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 One cold front moves across this afternoon, followed by another tonight.
321 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Early morning water vapor imagery revealed a deep-layer cyclone over the mid MS Valley with another closed mid-level system near Las Vegas. Persistent low-level warm advection and isentropic upglide downstream from the mid-level trough will foster the development of a precipitation shield which will migrate from the central High Plains into the mid and lower MO Valleys.
Tonight and Friday Low pressure moving south of Wisconsin this afternoon will continue to bring rain and snow into central and northeast Wisconsin into late evening. Leaned toward the warmer met guidance north and west of the Fox Valley for highs on Friday. Stayed near guidance across the Fox Valley and lakeshore due to northeast winds off the cooler waters.
423 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Low pressure will push east across the area this afternoon allowing the chance of showers to persist.
/Issued 344 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017/ Water vapor imagery reveals an impressive closed low over southern Nevada w/ 00z upper air data sampling strong wind along western and northern periphery of these feature. This supports the idea of a continued southeastward track of the low as the jet core rotates into the base of the trough.
Low pressure will move away from the area today and this will allow winds to subside. A ridge of high pressure will build over the region this weekend for dry and warming weather.
VFR to MVFR cigs will impact the region, along with a potential for MVFR to IFR fog development ahead of an approaching cold front late tonight. Regional radar imagery shows the line of showers and thunderstorms have exited to the east of the forecast area, though additional isolated to scattered showers and storms are developing in a narrow band along the cold front across northeastern and central portions of MS. Isolated to scattered rain showers in the wake of the line of thunderstorms and along a weak cold front approaching the region from the northwest will linger through this evening, and then finally move east of the forecast are by late tonight as the front passes through.
Models are struggling with whether or not the low clouds will stay into the overnight hours. There will be weak high pressure extending from western Lake Superior, and a larger area across much of northern and central Canada. A low over southern Hudson Bay Friday night will attempt to extend a weak trough across our northeastern counties. This will be as high pressure exits to our east, and 2 areas of low pressure move across TX and northwestern Canada. The southern trough shifts across eastern NE Saturday night, while the Canadian trough dives over eastern MT and western SD.
Will put in some fog at KVCT late (MVFR only) as winds may decouple enough there to produce some fog, as the low level jet is not as strong there as it is farther west.
328 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 One cold front moves across this afternoon, followed by another tonight.
304 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Scattered convection breaking out along a cold frontal boundary across west central North Dakota in a region of steep low level lapse rates. Cannot rule out some isolated freezing rain or sleet for a few hours around sunrise Saturday.
Conditions will gradually clear and winds will shift to westerly with the passage of a cold front late this morning/early this afternoon. There is some guidance that suggests more convective development when the synoptic cold front eventually moves through the region tonight, though it is unclear how the wake low will affect this future potential. In the upper levels by Friday morning the 500mb low will be over Indiana with a trough extending through Georgia and North Florida.
141 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 A cold front will track through the Southern Appalachian Region tonight. The low clouds will slowly pull out but the mid to high clouds may hang over the area for much of the day.
Ridge over the area Friday with mostly sunny skies and mild temps. The upper level trough axis is almost out of the area, as only Wallowa county is still under a southerly flow. Elsewhere, isolated to scattered rain or snow showers are occurring within the northwest flow behind the trough axis. Showers and winds will decrease this evening as high pressure builds over the area. This high pressure will be over the region Friday, then shift east Friday night.
SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): An initially zonal 500 mb flow over Dep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will gradually become more out of the southwest as the forecast period progresses due to closed 500 mb low pressure digging southeast into the through the Four Corners area.
Temperatures overnight are still expected to reach down into the lower 50s. This has stabilized our atmosphere and failed to allow sufficient heating and instability to be in place ahead of an approaching cold front. This cold front is moving across the western part of the forecast area this afternoon. As today's weather system pushes off to the north and east, upper ridging will build in for tomorrow. Highs tomorrow will reach the lower 80s in the north and into the mid to upper 70s elsewhere.
402 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Low pressure will track across northern Ohio today and off the Mid Atlantic Coast by Saturday morning.
Models are pretty insistent that the lower clouds will develop.
404 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017 H5 analysis from earlier tonight, had a closed low over central Nevada with a 140+ KT jet streak extending from Washington state south to southern California. Downstream of the low, ridging extended from the high plains of west Texas north into the Dakotas. East of the ridge, a closed low was located over southern Missouri with a downstream ridge extending from the Delmarva north into the eastern Great Lakes. For tonight: The upper level low will drift to the east southeast, crossing northern Arizona into northern New Mexico. The upper level low that will produce our rain chances on Saturday will move across the four corners region and push south southeast across the TX Panhandle.
245 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 One cold front moves across this afternoon, followed by another tonight.
The combination of dry air and high pressure subsidence will yield mostly clear skies today. Upper ridge already moving in will increase column heights and thus allow for temps to moderate considerably. This warming trend will continue into Saturday as the ridge spreads across the entire southeastern United States.
541 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Showers are expected through tonight with crossing low pressure.
254 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Upper-level ridge to build across the region today allowing for mostly clear skies areawide. Temperatures forecast to climb into the low to mid 80s across the ArkLaTex with light south to southeast winds prevailing.
149 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 A warm front will lift north of the forecast area tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will pass through the area during midday Friday. High pressure will dominate over the weekend.
633 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Scattered showers are expected today as low pressure moves across our area. High pressure will build into the Midwest over the weekend providing fair weather with seasonable temperatures. An upper low over Illinois early this morning will drift east and bring more showers to the forecast area today. Lowered highs several degrees over northern areas favoring cooler guidance given an initial cool marine flow off Lake Erie. Skies should remain cloudy today with the low in the vicinity, but some clearing is possible over northwest Indiana and far southwest Lower Michigan late tonight as high pressure builds into the area.
656 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 One cold front moves across this afternoon, followed by another tonight.
Convection along pre-frontal trough is weakening as it approaches se Ga/ne Fl from the west. Upper short wave trough pushes across the area this morning which along with heating will produce scattered showers and isolated thunder late morning. Cold front will push through tonight dry bringing lower dewpoints and slightly cooler temperatures. High pressure ridging at the surface and aloft will provide for mainly clear skies. High pressure over the region will shift into the Wrn Atlc with southerly steering flow developing. At the surface Easterly flow will keep the beaches a bit cooler in the mid/upper 70s while further inland still expect Max temps well into the 80s under Mostly Sunny skies and a few spots along the I-75 corridor may push close to 90F.
***Reminder, our radar, KGGW, will be down for scheduled maintenance until Saturday April 1*** An upper level low moving over the desert southwest will continue to spin showers northward into southern Montana. The northern stream trof will push a stronger front across the region this afternoon with the potential for a few more showers. A weak ridge sets up over northeast Montana Saturday, bringing drier conditions back to the region with deep westerly flow.
1146 PM MDT Thu Mar 30 2017 Deep upper level low will push into the Four Corners late tonight and Friday. Warm conditions ahead of the low will keep snow levels up above the 9k mark with levels dropping later tonight as cold air wraps around the low and infiltrates the region. The low will track slowly ESE across northern New Mexico with flow aloft shifting to the east. The exception will be across the Northwest Plateau and over the southern valleys where temps drop to around freezing late tonight to kick out a little snow shower activity.
/sb 06Z TAFS: High pressure strengthens over the region delivering mostly clear skies and lighter winds. Models continue to show this trend yet the depth of the low cloud deck is not as deep as earlier runs which continues to lead to lower confidence.
344 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Water vapor imagery reveals an impressive closed low over southern Nevada w/ 00z upper air data sampling strong wind along western and northern periphery of these feature. This supports the idea of a continued southeastward track of the low as the jet core rotates into the base of the trough.
254 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Latest water vapor imagery depicts an approaching mid-level ridge over the Central Plains, which will maintain dry conditions throughout Friday and much of Saturday across the area.
Ahead of the system surface lee troughing, low level thermal ridging has developed and will continue to produce mainly above normal temperatures through Saturday. As the upper low approaches Friday afternoon high winds are likely in the Guadalupe Mountains. A dryline and dry Pacific cold front will surge east on Saturday just ahead of the slow moving upper low in New Mexico.
Deformation zone over our CWA this morning as closed upper low sits over Arizona with weak northern branch of large scale trough extending into Canada. However, freezing levels have been up around 7500-8000 ft so not a lot of snow being reported at this time even at higher snotel sites. However, with heavy wet snow still expected in the high country we did not want to cancel the warnings and give the false impression significant snow was not going to occur. Saturday sees drier air and downward motion take over resulting in a warmer and mostly sunny day.
501 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Scattered showers are expected today as low pressure moves across our area. High pressure will build into the Midwest over the weekend providing fair weather with seasonable temperatures. An upper low over Illinois early this morning will drift east and bring more showers to the forecast area today. Lowered highs several degrees over northern areas favoring cooler guidance given an initial cool marine flow off Lake Erie. Skies should remain cloudy today with the low in the vicinity, but some clearing is possible over northwest Indiana and far southwest Lower Michigan late tonight as high pressure builds into the area.
404 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Today and Tonight: Strong upper level low moving through the Ohio valley this morning is driving a large storm system eastward.
219 AM MDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Water vapor shows upper low over the desert southwest with abundant tropospheric moisture extending nwd through WY and into far swrn SD. At the lower levels, broad e-se boundary layer flow covers the cwfa. Upper level low drifts slowly ewd over the next couple of days. Pcpn chances then shift south and east of the cwfa on Saturday with temps about 5-10 degrees warmer.
Fast progressive upper pattern continues with upper low over the Ohio River Valley this morning moving eastward up the Mid Atlantic region tonight. Abundant and complex upper energy field wrapping around the E-S quadrants of the upper system pushing cold front through the Deep South today. Tonight into Saturday, dry NW flow aloft as upper ridging begins to build into the region while the frontal boundary stalls over S FL, patchy overnight fog possible areawide.
Expect improving conditions through the morning, with VFR CIGS and clearing skies as the cold front moves through the area. Scattered moderate to heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed across portions of the Florida panhandle and spreading into southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia in response to pre-frontal forcing as the mid-level trough swings through the area. The cold front associated with this system is currently draped across Alabama and southeastern Mississippi. Given the lack of radiational cooling overnight due to cloud cover, temperatures will likely easily rebound into the low 80s for highs this afternoon.
An weak upper level ridge will bring dry and seasonably mild temperatures to Western Washington today. The ridge will shift east and weaken tonight as a frontal system brings some light rain to the area late tonight through Saturday morning.
123 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Low pressure over Indiana will track across northern Ohio on Friday. A warm front will push northeast ahead of the low this evening with the front occluding over the area later tonight. The low will move east of the area by Friday night.
A cold front continues to push away from the region this morning. High pressure is ridging in to the local area from the plains. The front and following ridge will continue east bound today. Moisture will increase through today and Saturday as low pressure develops over the plains.
328 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 A cold front currently draped along the western edge of the Cumberland Plateau is slowly pushing east into the region early this morning. As a result, highs will only climb into the low to mid 60s in most places. Additionally, lift from the upper-trough will help to generate some light showers periodically throughout the day and into the evening hours -- particularly along the mountains and far NE TN and SW VA. High pressure will be in control to start the period.
Later today the upper level jet will increase slightly to around 25-30kts as the back side of an upper level trough moves across the region. Tonight will be dry as well for most location, but a bit warmer as southerly winds keep overnight lows near 60 for most locations. Heat and humidity remain on track for the middle of the week with highs near 90 and dewpoints in the lower 70s.