Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Mid level ridging was beginning to be suppressed southward as strong westerly flow developed in the Northern Plains. Strong convection developed along periphery of ridge axis where mid level temperatures were a bit cooler, from western Nebraska into South Dakota and Minnesota. A cold front was analyzed from northwest Nebraska to the Minnesota and Iowa border, and is forecast to make a slow push southward into northeast Nebraska later this afternoon as heights continue to lower.
Otherwise still expect isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon with the highest chances occurring in the southern counties near the Georgia state line. Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 73 93 73 / 30 20 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 71 91 70 / 20 20 30 20 Oak Ridge, TN 92 71 91 69 / 20 20 30 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 66 89 68 / 10 10 30 20.
High pressure over the Gulf is providing a deep layered west-northwest wind flow over the forecast which will favor chances for some showers and storms along the coastal areas the remainder of the morning, with the convection then shifting to inland areas during the afternoon with the northwest flow regime favoring the best coverage of storms and highest pops across southwest Florida during mid to late afternoon. With slightly less moisture to work and warmer temperatures aloft (-5. High pressure over the central Gulf and extending southeast to the Florida Straits will maintain west-northwest winds around 10 knots with seas of 2 feet or less over the Gulf waters the remainder of today.
Warmer with less cloud cover and shower and thunderstorm coverage.
342 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019 A weak flow/forcing regime will persist in this period, with the Tri-State area situated on the NW periphery of an upper level ridge. Expect near or slightly above normal temperatures today and Tuesday, though several degrees cooler the past several days.
The other noteworthy item for the near-term will be the return to cooler temperatures. While temperatures will not be extremely cold, they will be noticeably cooler from the past several days. Highs ranging from the upper 70s across the northwest to the low 90s generally south of I-80. Overnight low temperatures will range from the upper 50s west of US- 83 into the low 60s west of US-83.
Look for the overall upper trough pattern across the western U.
1059 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2019 A cutoff upper high is centered over the Southeast Gulf this morning.
The northeast extent of a large upper level ridge had become a little suppressed as an old boundary remained from Wisconsin into Illinois. Continued concern for heat illnesses with temperatures rising into the lower 90s combined with heat indices rising to near 95, so will continue to mention this in the Hazardous Weather Outlook product. Confidence remains on the low side regarding convective coverage this afternoon. Positioning of ridge axis should provide a gradient of instability from west to east across northern Indiana this afternoon with the greater instability across northwest Indiana.
Tuesday starts off with moisture advecting in from the west as a warm front starts to affect the area bringing better chances of showers and storms. This feature along with small upper level short waves crossing overhead, compliments of a low pressure system passing to our north, will support unsettled weather and hot and humid afternoons for the next several days.
The ridge should help limit convection a bit, but will have chances each day this week for the typical summertime diurnally driven storms.
Meanwhile, a closed low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest tracks eastward making landfall later in the day causing a low-amplitude ridge to build over the region. The ridge stays on top of the region tonight promising an end to shower/thunderstorm activity by midnight with quiet weather lasting through the morning. Models indicated the low over the Pacific Northwest will remain quasi-stationary tonight and Tuesday, so drying will continue to work across the region from the southwest. In contrast, overnight lows tonight will be a bit cooler for most locations due to less cloud cover available to block the escape of long-wave radiation from the surface. In contrast to model solutions from late last week, the most recent guidance indicated that flow will continue from the southwest during the coming week as low pressure remains entrenched over the Pacific Northwest.
620 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019 Details in timing and location of convection remain the biggest challenge in this broad ridge pattern. Mesoscale models remain optimistic that convection will become more scattered during mid day hours as moisture transport signal becomes more west to east orientated, or parallel to ridge flow. On Tuesday, broad upper ridge flattens even more, and with passing short wave along northern U. border, cold front could be pushed further south. 00z ECMWF builds upper ridge across central U. Expect the lower flight rules to come and go near shower activity in such weak low level flow.
/issued 418 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019/ (Today and Tonight) An inverted trough will remain across Texas today and tonight. Highs today will be near seasonal normals, in the low to mid 90s.
/Today through Tuesday/ A few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms have already been developing this morning due to weak large scale ascent from an upper trough over East Texas. The best chances for rain today should be mainly across East Texas where the vertical ascent will be greatest before shifting northward by this evening as the weakening upper trough drifts toward Oklahoma. More showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the daytime hours of Tuesday across Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas as the upper trough begins to exit the area to the northeast.
Early this morning, an upper level low was located near the state, with a ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico, and another ridge located from the western conus into the Plains.
Updated this morning to up chance of precipitation and thunderstorms along the higher terrain of eastern Oregon. Cold front crossing area overnight, with northwest surface winds increasing to 10-20 kts southeast Oregon after 03z and southwest Idaho after 06z.
Looking aloft, a mid to upper level ridge has started to build over the eastern GOMEX and FL peninsula. Model guidance indicates slightly stronger NW-WNW flow between the aforementioned trough and a high pressure center over the GOMEX.
A cold front is progged to work into the region from the northwest by Tuesday evening, potentially extending as far south and east as Corson/Dewey forecast zones in north central South Dakota.
Cold front will be the focus for strong to severe storms on Tuesday. The cold front noses into the area in the early morning hours, but it is shallow and many model solutions wash it out in the afternoon, reinforcing it and shoving it southeast with convective outflow in the afternoon/evening hours. Currently forecasting highs in the 70s and 80s for Tuesday, but MET/MAV guidance showing significantly cooler with upper 60s being advertised in Billings tomorrow afternoon. NBM and other ensemble guidance is much warmer and leaning on it for this forecast package.
256 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019 Upper level ridging has flattened some and settling back over the Southern Plains.
Instability analysis indicates a ridge of higher instability from Memphis, to near Mountain View. Early this morning, an upper level low was located near the state, with a ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico, and another ridge located from the western conus into the Plains.
So, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue focused on the higher terrain again Tuesday afternoon. Our area will remain under southwest flow aloft through the coming weekend as an upper level trough persists over the Pac NW and Great Basin.
Upper ridging will bring yet another hot and dry day to the area today with temps in the upper 80s across southeast Kansas and the low to mid 90s in south central and central Kansas. The upper ridge that has brought persistent hot and dry conditions over the past few days will break down Tuesday.
239 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019 Slightly above normal temperatures prevailing across the region this afternoon, all in response to a large upper-level ridge that remains parked across the central U. For tonight, expect mostly clear skies with lows generally falling into the lower to middle 70s early Tuesday morning. During this time, the upper ridge will begin retreating to the southwest, which will allow a more zonal flow to become better established across the central Plains and lower Missouri Vly.
Still expecting a rather warm afternoon with highs into the low to mid 90s across the area. Heat index values may reach into the low 100s especially in central Middle TN.
Tomorrow, a broad area of low pressure centered over the Pacific Northwest coastline will slowly drift into eastern Washington. Across Southwest Montana, dry air in the low levels of the atmosphere will promote gusty erratic outflow winds associated with thunderstorm activity.
North of this ridge, troughing will be in the forecast area. Strong upper ridging will weaken late in the week.
Muggy lows tonight in the lower 70s. The 12Z forecast models continue to show a gradual flattening of the upper level ridge across the Midwest and Great Lakes region.
Strong mid level ridge over the nations mid section will build a little east with height rises observed over the Ohio Valley today. It will be another mild night with lows in the lower 70s.
On Tuesday, a cold front will approach from the northwest, moving through most of the state by evening. Highs Tuesday in the lower 70s northwest to mid 80s south central.
119 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019 A couple of weak surface trofs (possibly resulting from outflows/undular bores from the overnight MCS over the OH valley) are pushing south through north AL. Thus far, only a few small light showers have developed along the trof from northern MS thru central AL.
High temperatures today will again fall around 110 degrees across the lower deserts, but today should end up being the hottest day of the week. The Pacific trough that has remained over the Pacific Northwest since last week will slowly drift southeast over the next several days allowing heights across the Desert Southwest to decrease a bit. The subtropical high to our southeast will react to the incoming trough by weakening and getting shunted even farther to our south.
With the upper level ridge over the southeastern CONUS remain in place into the middle of the week, daily diurnal thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon and evening. The ridge will keep the upper level jet across the northern plains however, any short wave moving across the ridge would be capable of producing storms with warm and unstable air in place through the end of the week. The weekend looks the same with the upper ridge in place. This may lead to cooler but more active weather.
The storms are expected to track into central WI trough the evening and overnight.
1226 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019 Generally quiet pattern will continue for the next couple days as the mid level ridging currently in place lingers into the middle part of the upcoming week. While southerly flow at the surface keeps the moisture and warm air trickling into the area the mid level suppression associated with the H5 ridge will keep any storm activity at bay. Daytime highs across the region will generally be in the upper 80s with heat indices in the lower 90s for Monday afternoon. Tuesday should bring more of the same, as the mid level ridge remains firmly in place.
Upper level ridge will allow a weak trough to graze the extreme north end of the forecast area, then a drier outlook for Wed.
Looking aloft the ridge that prevailed over the area this past weekend, has further relaxed and weakened. At the start of the forecast period, a broad upper ridge will extend across the Central High Plains with southwest flow aloft over the Tri- State area. An upper trough centered over southern Washington and northern Oregon will give the region a chance for daily showers and thunderstorms as several disturbances are pushed into the region. Temperatures will range in the mid-80s to mid-90s for highs and the upper 50s in northeastern Colorado to the low 70s in Kansas for lows. Temperatures will range from the upper 80s to mid-90s for highs and upper 50s in northeastern Colorado to the lower 70s in Kansas. The remainder of the forecast, the upper trough will deamplify as it moves east, over the Dakotas.
Issued by National Weather Service Amarillo TX 309 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019 Ridging continues across Arizona to the Central Plains with a continued warm pattern for West Texas. South winds at the surface and slightly lower than normal temperatures will persist through the next seven days with muggy conditions as dewpoints continue to remain on the warmer side.
The lack of early morning cloud cover has resulted in temperatures running slightly warmer than previously forecast. Down along the gulf coast temperatures are rather mild with most sites in the lower 70s and a few locations reporting upper 60s with a bit of fog in cntrl Louisiana. This beats the lower 80s of last week and is a more typical temperature for the gulf coast. We are in the depth of summer with an area of high pressure centered over the gulf. This area of high pressure will migrate around the gulf through this week and into the weekend.
1014 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019 Still anticipating isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this Afternoon into this Evening as an upper level low spins across northeastern Texas.
253 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2019 High pressure will slide offshore south of the region tonight as a cold front drops south through the region on Tuesday.
Temps are mainly in the lower 90s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Broad upper ridge will continue across the southern states through the work week. Highs this week will mostly be in the lower 90s with lows from 70 to 75.
359 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2019 High pressure continues to establish itself over the region to kick off this work week.
Tmrw, the ridge begins to dirty and a weak wave develops/moves overtop. Wed offers the best chance pops/includes marginal risk svr, as a the ridge shifts east, and some more potent energy/wave approaches the Mississippi River Valley. Daytime highs Mon-Tue in the lower 90s, with dew points in the 70s, results in heat indices each pm pushing triple digits. As we head into the weekend the flow aloft becomes more northerly as an upper level high settles in over TX.
Have a surface boundary in place as a warm front across southern MN/far northwestern IA with storms having fired along it across southern MN at this time.
In addition, an upper low over Mexico is pumping lots of tropical moisture this way across the Western Gulf. Coverage over LA has seen the least and appears to be in that same drier slot of moisture in the low.
With these storms this afternoon the primary hazard would be gusty winds from a collapsing storm, the freezing levels look too high right now to pose a major hail threat this afternoon. Similar pattern expected tomorrow, but with a slightly weakened ridge we will likely see temperatures drop a few degrees compared to this afternoon. We start the period out under the influence of a broad upper ridge. However, a series of short waves moving through the upper flow will be flattening this ridge out and helping to enhance convection chances during much of the period.
As a result we are 2-4 degrees cooler than yesterday. The weak high pressure under the ridge will do little to nothing to provide stability over the CWA.
For tomorrow, a very weak upper level low will move south of the FA. Slight cooling at 500-hPa in association with the low may be enough to spark off widely scattered small storms across SW Kansas.
308 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019 As of 19Z, broad midlevel ridging continues to dominate the southeastern 2/3rds of the CONUS, although a broad and weak midlevel low was across northern Mexico. Afternoon highs are expected to reach the lower 90s. Thunderstorm chances look to increase by weeks-end into the weekend as a northern stream trough digs across the Northern Plains and shunts the previously mentioned surface front into the forecast area.
High pressure over the Gulf is providing a deep layered west-northwest wind flow over the forecast which will favor chances for some showers and storms along the coastal areas the remainder of the morning, with the convection then shifting to inland areas during the afternoon with the northwest flow regime favoring the best coverage of storms and highest pops across southwest Florida during mid to late afternoon. With slightly less moisture to work and warmer temperatures aloft (-5. High pressure over the central Gulf and extending southeast to the Florida Straits will maintain west- northwest winds around 10 knots with seas of 2 feet or less over the Gulf waters the remainder of today.
Gosselin An MCV currently located over central Illinois is embedded the upper level northeasterly flow as it turns anticyclonically around the high pressure centered over southwest Iowa. Monday has the potential to be the toastiest day of the week with temperatures in the low 90s and heat indices peaking in the low 100s across much of the region. Mid and upper level flow will become southwesterly with upper level high pressures flanking the continent. MRM The upper levels become increasingly quasi-zonal with weak flow through the period as the weak low pressure in the southern central US lifts to the northeast. Thunderstorm chances increase over the holiday weekend as a weak cold frontal boundary wavers south through Missouri and Illinois.
258 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019 A cold front that crossed the area yesterday has settled across NE and stretches westward into nern WY. A separate residual outflow zone across nern WY from morning convection is currently the focus for some additional convection, with more widespread development over the higher terrain of nwrn/n cntrl WY associated with a mid-to-upper level speed max. A deepening trough moving out of the Pac NW will lead to height falls across the Rockies/High Plains on Tuesday.
/Issued 332 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2019/ Upper-level ridging is strengthening over the southeastern CONUS to begin the short term period, which will lead to warm, typical summertime conditions on Monday and Tuesday. As this ridge continues to build in, the main axis of moisture will push further south. The influence of the ridge will also allow for warming temperatures. High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will be about 4 to 8 degrees higher than climatological averages, with highs climbing into the low 90s across much of north Georgia and into the mid 90s in central Georgia in the afternoon. However, with slightly drier conditions under the ridge, the combination of moisture and temperatures should keep apparent temperatures just outside of Heat Advisory criteria through the short term period.
Today temperatures are 3-5 degrees cooler and so there is much less cloud development across the CWA and the only storms are isolated in the orographically favored Big Bend. The higher elevations west of the Pecos River will continue to have the highest rain chances the next several days as high pressure to our west exerts it's influence. An upper level low along the Texas coast will slowly retrograde west but unable to move the high, will become stationary over west-central Texas. The low will be close enough to allow for isolated showers and storms to develop in the Permian Basin late in the week but widespread or even scattered activity is not expected at this time. Low level flow will be southeasterly through the next seven days advecting relatively cooler Gulf of Mexico air into West Texas and southeastern New Mexico.
Isol'd to sct -TSRA/-SHRA this afternoon mainly S and E of KTUS and across the higher terrain. The best chance for wetting rain will generally be across the higher terrain and for locales south and east of Tucson, with gusty outflow winds possible with the stronger convection.
Highs nearing the mid 90s for some accompanied with dewpoint temps in the low 70s leads to Heat Index values reaching into the low 100s.
/Issued 1014 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019/ Still anticipating isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this Afternoon into this Evening as an upper level low spins across northeastern Texas.
Fairly stagnant weather pattern over the region through the period with upper troughing over the Pacific northwest and upper ridging over the southern plains keeping a generally swly upper flow over the area. Latest GOES-R imagery was showing the low MVFR ceilings continuing to linger across the northern panhandle and Niobrara county.
Dew point temperatures were mainly in the upper 50s with some spot observing dew points in the low 60s. For the rest of the work week, and unsettled weather is forecast to affect the region, as a series of low pressure areas moves across the region.
Looking aloft the ridge that prevailed over the area this past weekend, has further relaxed and weakened. At the start of the period, weak ridging spans across the southern CONUS with zonal flow over the northern Plains. In addition to that, a closed low is centered over Canada and a trough has entered the Pacific Northwest and west coast. This setup leaves the region under a quasi-zonal flow at the northern edge of the ridge.
Concur with the deterministic GFS/ECMWF/NAM that a weak upper level trough will meander over the region during the period. Tuesday night, the combination the weak upper low/weakness in the upper heights and moisture will contribute to isolated/scattered convection (Increasing CIN will limit surface-based convection, yet the upper low may generate elevated activity.
Highs in the low 90s are expected again. The forecast area remains between the weakness of a departing mid/upper low to the west, and high pressure aloft building into the region from the southeast. Highs this afternoon will top out in the low and middle 90s, with lows overnight falling into the lower 70s. As the upper ridge builds over the region toward the 4th of July holiday and in the days following, this will bring temperatures well into the mid 90s across the region.
High pressure will develop over the region late in the week and into the upcoming weekend resulting in a gradual inland warming trend.
A Canadian cold front will move southward through the region on Tuesday morning. Expect cooler temperatures to move into North Central MT on Tuesday.
Still expecting a rather warm afternoon with highs into the low to mid 90s across the area. Heat index values may reach into the low 100s especially in central Middle TN. Weak high pressure at the surface continues to influence the weather pattern across Middle Tennessee.
as an upper trough bisects the region from north to south. Tuesday looks dry, as the upper trough drifts slowly east. Near normal temperatures will continue with low in the upper 60s to around 70 and highs in the lower 90s.
932 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019 Convection has dissipated for the evening but will need to watch for redevelopment along and northwest of the I-30 Corridor which will include the northern third of NE TX, SE OK and SW AR where our inverted trough axis currently resides.
Mid and upper level ridging has combined with lower level subsidence to put an end to the convection overnight. Pattern will lean toward ridging in the mid and upper levels through this taf period. However, enough moisture may undercut ridge and combine with favorable omega values to produce a few morning showers or afternoon tstms.
244 PM PDT Mon Jul 1 2019 Temperatures will remain near normal values for the start of July through the end of the week with conditions trending warmer and slightly above normal going into the weekend.