Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
302 AM CDT Sat Sep 18 2021 Surface cold front has become diffuse this morning across the forecast area. Upper level ridge will remain overhead today which will lead to a continuation of the warm temperatures with most locations in the upper 80's to low 90's. A trough coming ashore the Pacific northwest, BC coast, will phase with a remnant trough that developed out of a disturbance off the coast of California. To our east, a closed low will continue its trek through the ArkLaTex while we remain under the influence of weak ridging between these two features. The remnant California trough will evolve to not much more than a subtle kink in the overall flow and the feature will move north of the area on Sunday.
There is an upper level low slowly meandering around the state and this feature has now moved south into Southeast Texas. This places our region on the backside of the low with north flow persisting in the atmosphere. All activity should be dissipated by sunset and the forecast for tonight will be dry with lows mostly in the lower 70s. The upper low is expected to weaken and drift slowly east by tomorrow.
140 AM EDT Sat Sep 18 2021 A weak boundary will cross the region tonight, followed by high pressure and warm, dry weather through the weekend.
1145 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021 Overall, the upper level ridge will slowly build back across the area tonight into Saturday. There is a weak upper level disturbance under the ridge that will reside across Arkansas and Louisiana. Otherwise, skies will be clear to partly cloudy through the period with lows tonight in the low to mid 60s and highs Saturday in the mid 80s to low 90s. The upper level ridge will continue to dominate the region Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures will be held a bit with highs from the lower 80s in south central Missouri to the upper 80s over southwest Missouri.
1 inch range are expected to persist overnight within a deep southwesterly flow regime to the east of a cutoff upper low across southeast TX, and this should support regeneration of convection in the 8-10Z timeframe as a mid-level vort max approaches the region. As the mid/upper low to our west encroaches further upon the region it will interact moreso with the deep tropical air mass in place.
After midnight, a surge of moisture will head north with upper level energy as the broad trof to our southwest starts to open up and lift northeast.
407 AM EDT Sat Sep 18 2021 A weak cold front will gradually dissipate today as it moves south into the region. High pressure will build into the area tonight, remaining across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Sunday.
156 AM MDT Sat Sep 18 2021 Lee-side trough over central Montana overnight will move east across eastern Montana this morning and turn winds to the SW by afternoon. A cold front will be approaching the area from the west which will bring subsidence and warming that will boost temperatures well into 90s over most of the forecast area today. Cold front moves through the area tonight which could bring a period of gusty NW winds. Temperatures will be much cooler behind the cold front on Sunday as an upper trough moves into the area. Models are now limiting most of the moisture to the southern part of the forecast area so the highest pops for rain will be in the southwest Sunday afternoon and southeast Sunday evening based on the timing of the system.
Return flow continues to increase around the backside of the high while upper-level ridging builds overhead. This strong warm-air advection should push highs today into the lower to mid 80s.
1258 AM EDT Sat Sep 18 2021 Other than an isolated shower today, dry and warm weather is expected through the weekend under a ridge of high pressure. Further flattening of ridging overhead will ensue today as yet another trough crosses the Great Lakes. Ascent associated with this trough may support the development of a few showers this afternoon, but overall moisture supply should be largely limited with better forcing for ascent remaining north of the forecast area.
1132 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 Mostly cloudy and relatively cooler late-week conditions will break for an unseasonably warm start to the weekend.
1112 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 Mostly cloudy and relatively cooler late-week conditions will break for an unseasonably warm start to the weekend.
The ridge axis will pass off to the east on Saturday with winds gradually becoming southerly. The ridge axis transverses our forecast area Saturday night with backside return flow ramping up southwesterly warm air advection into Sunday morning. While recent ensemble forecasts have reduced the strength of seasonally anomalous mid-level ridging, 850 mb temperatures continue to max out Sunday afternoon near 20C.
SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): 500mb ridge across northern Mexico and west Texas and a 500mb low across southeast Texas today will continue to provide subsidence across southwest Texas.
Otherwise, expect dry weather today, with light east to northeast winds and afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s.
649 AM CDT Sat Sep 18 2021 Weak ridging aloft will develop over most of the area today with temperatures remaining well above mid-September climo. Similar scenario on Sunday though a bit warmer with stronger south winds across central Kansas as lee side trof deepens over the high Plains.
335 AM PDT Sat Sep 18 2021 A weak upper low moving through the region today will allow for temperatures to continue their downward trend to seasonal readings.
Forecast soundings show the 850 mb cap slowly eroding throughout the day and sfc temps able to reach convective temps of the lower 90s by mid afternoon. Regarding temperatures, daytime highs should peak in the lower 90s for our western counties due to less cloud cover and everywhere else will reach the upper 80s to near 90. As skies clear out overnight, overnight lows will reach the lower to mid-70s for most areas and near 70 for northern counties and rural sites.
330 AM PDT Sat Sep 18 2021 Cooler over the weekend with gusty wind and some precipitation as Pacific storm moves through.
533 AM MDT Sat Sep 18 2021 Upper-level ridging Hot and dry for much of southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle today beneath short wave ridging aloft and resulting 700 mb temperatures on the order of +15 to +17 deg C. The upper-level trough axis and much- anticipated cold front will blast across the CWA Sunday night with scattered/numerous rain and mountain show showers likely.
527 AM MDT Sat Sep 18 2021 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains, with upper trof along the Pac NW coast. At the surface, strong lee trof is slowly advancing eastward into central MT and WY. Mostly clear skies very early this morning with some breezy southerly in advance of trof. Thermal ridge peaks overhead today with lee trof advancing to near the WY/SD line by late afternoon. South/southwest winds will remain gusty through the night with lee trof continuing its slow eastward movement. Another hot, dry, and breezy day expected on Sunday ahead of cold front associated with with upper trof pushing into the Northern Rockies. Cold front will move into northeast WY and far northwest SD by late afternoon, then sweep through much of western SD in the evening.
STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP DUE TO COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WEST. A powerful cold front is projected to move across the Northern Rockies throughout much of today, intensifying winds this afternoon (particularly near to and along the Continental Divide). However, much of the smoke and haze will be quickly pushed eastward and aloft behind the cold front this afternoon and evening. Brief bursts of rainfall are expected along the cold front, however much of the accumulating rain for the region will fall tonight through Sunday night. The airmass associated with the cold front today is projected to decrease snow levels to near 6000 feet late Sunday night.
A trough of low pressure continues across the area today with deep tropical moisture and generally light flow. A weak trough of low pressure across the waters gradually fills as high pressure builds in during the weekend then resides in place for early to mid week.
As this feature lingers around, energy and plumes of moisture rotating around the low pressure is expected to move across the CWA, mainly the Victoria Crossroads which could result in scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. With mostly clear skies across the majority of the CWA today through tomorrow , temperatures are expected to warm up with highs ranging from the lower 90s to near 101 degrees. At night, clear skies will allow radiational cooling to take place with temperatures dropping into the lower to upper 70s.
349 AM MDT Sat Sep 18 2021 Upper-level ridging Hot and dry for much of southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle today beneath short wave ridging aloft and resulting 700 mb temperatures on the order of +15 to +17 deg C. The upper-level trough axis and much- anticipated cold front will blast across the CWA Sunday night with scattered/numerous rain and mountain show showers likely.
Expecting a fairly quiet, albeit breezy, dry and warmer day today. An upper level ridge axis is expected to move overhead today and transition us to weak southwesterly flow aloft. This afternoon will see breezy and warmer conditions with highs rebounding back up into the 80s. The heat will be short lived though as the next upper level trof approaches and brings a stronger sfc cold front with it.
858 AM EDT Sat Sep 18 2021 A weak cold front will gradually dissipate today as it moves south into the region. High pressure will build into the area tonight, remaining across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Sunday.
409 AM CDT Sat Sep 18 2021 Upper troughing remains over Arkansas and northern Louisiana this morning.
403 AM CDT Sat Sep 18 2021 Expecting a fairly quiet, albeit breezy, dry and warmer day today. An upper level ridge axis is expected to move overhead today and transition us to weak southwesterly flow aloft. This afternoon will see breezy and warmer conditions with highs rebounding back up into the 80s. The heat will be short lived though as the next upper level trof approaches and brings a stronger sfc cold front with it.
622 AM EDT Sat Sep 18 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the southern plains into the sern U. The ridge amplifies into the upper Great Lakes tonight as an amplifying trough moves into the western U.
Cold front has pushed south of the forecast area with cirrus in our southern counties, while clear skies were in our north. Guidance has come in warmer for the short term which makes sense considering the dry ground and drought conditions. Basically clear skies through tonight as high pressure resides across the Great Lakes region. Highs today generally in the lower to mid 80s with lows tonight in the lower to mid 60s.
/issued 340 AM CDT Sat Sep 18 2021/ SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): 500mb ridge across northern Mexico and west Texas and a 500mb low across southeast Texas today will continue to provide subsidence across southwest Texas.
621 AM EDT Sat Sep 18 2021 A weak cold front will gradually dissipate today as it moves south into the region. High pressure will build into the area tonight, remaining across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Sunday.
530 AM EDT Sat Sep 18 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the southern plains into the sern U. The ridge amplifies into the upper Great Lakes tonight as an amplifying trough moves into the western U.
Upper-level ridging Hot and dry for much of southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle today beneath short wave ridging aloft and resulting 700 mb temperatures on the order of +15 to +17 deg C. The upper-level trough axis and much- anticipated cold front will blast across the CWA Sunday night with scattered/numerous rain and mountain show showers likely.
Given the low- level dry air, rain and thunder chances should remain minimal today, with the exception of a weak cloud line possibly forming this afternoon. From synopsis, high pressure will build west across Florida through this afternoon, bringing gentle easterly breezes by Sunday.
545 AM CDT Sat Sep 18 2021 Fall is in the air this morning with high pressure sitting over the Duluth area, providing calm winds and mostly clear skies. Quiet conditions in store for today and tonight as the high slowly drifts east. High temperatures will be in the 80s with lows in the low to mid 60s.
224 PM CDT Sat Sep 18 2021 This afternoon's active weather was due to the close proximity of the 850 mb front which line up favorably with a west to east mid/upper level trough axis. The upper low, currently over Louisiana will begin to lift northward, carrying added dynamics which will phase with a developing moisture channel. Some locally heavier amounts cannot be ruled out given the higher pwats.
The cold front is still making its way through the Northern Rockies this afternoon. The strong low pressure system associated with the front will settle over the region on Sunday. Widespread showers are anticipated on Sunday with the highest mountain peaks experiencing accumulating snow.
258 PM CDT Sat Sep 18 2021 Temperatures are beginning to exceed expectations early this afternoon with readings in the low 70s in northwest WI to as high as the upper 70s over southwest MN. A deep trough over the Pacific Northwest and healthy ridging centered over the lower Mississippi Valley have resulted in near meridional flow over the Rockies today. This fast southerly flow will spread eastward through the period with the advancing trough and will eventually tap into deeper moisture Sunday night. Very strong moisture transport on a 50 kt LLJ will facilitate shower and thunderstorm development along and behind the cold front late Sunday night.
The low level jet will also kick in again, with its main impact being to the aviation forecast. The main question is whether this cap will get eroded by late afternoon, or will it take until early to mid evening, when the low level jet kicks in.
139 PM EDT Sat Sep 18 2021 A weak cold front will gradually dissipate today as it moves south into the region. High pressure will build into the area tonight, remaining across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Sunday.
Along with that, temperatures are running 15 to 20 degrees warmer than yesterday. Models are still showing the cold front moving through the area overnight tonight, with the front likely through the area by sunrise tomorrow.
410 PM EDT Sat Sep 18 2021 A weak cold front push south into Virginia tonight then wash out across the the area Sunday.
223 PM CDT Sat Sep 18 2021 (Issued 212 PM CDT Sat Sep 18 2021) Tonight through Sunday night: High pressure will continue to slide eastward this evening bringing a return of southerly winds to southern WI. Overnight will slightly warmer tonight with temps in the 50s and areas closer to the lake in the low 60s. Sunday is looking much warmer as the upper-level ridge builds across the Upper Midwest.
The cold front is expected to dissipate across the southeast Texas Panhandle this morning. On Sunday, a large upper level trough will be plowing through western Canada and the northern and central Rockies. There is a subtle short wave trough ahead of the larger trough that moves across the Oklahoma Panhandle during the afternoon and evening. South and southwest winds will pick up at least into the 15 to 25 mph range if not higher ahead of this trough.
Rain chances will be lower, however, as the upper low shifts a bit farther to the south and east.
West to east upper trough axis aligned directly across middle Tn this morning. For the forecast update, will adjust the hourly pops to sustain the higher pops for a few more hours.
While nocturnal convection is certainly possible given the position of an upper trough axis ovhd, coverage did not warrant continuing with VCSH or VCTS through the overnight hours but did show a return to MVFR/IFR ceilings along with some reductions in VSBY, followed by VCSH by mid to late morning Sunday across most locations. /issued 1043 AM CDT Sat Sep 18 2021/ Convection slow to develop this morning despite vigorous upper low spinning across SE TX into Deep East Texas and NW LA attm. The one difference between today vs yesterday is that the low level circulation which once was Nicholas is virtually non-existent today and we are seeing slightly drier PWAT air wrapping around the east and northeast flank of the upper low across SE TX.
The remainder of the overnight period and into tomorrow look quiet as winds back toward south/southwest and mid level temperatures increase modestly in response to southwesterly flow aloft well downstream from an upper trough moving across the northern Rockies and Great Basin. An upper-level trough will transverse the NW CONUS throughout Sunday, and a lee surface cyclone will form east of the Rockies.
In response, a lee trough will deepen over the northern High Plains tonight with that boundary transitioning to a cold front while advancing into the northern Plains on Sunday. The development of a nocturnal low-level jet to our immediate west coupled with falling pressure over the High Plains will likely sustain some vertical mixing overnight. That, in turn should lead to warmer temperatures tonight with lows mainly in the lower to mid 60s. The low-level jet will migrate east into the mid MO Valley on Sunday, yielding breezy to windy conditions. Deep, boundary-layer mixing along that airstream will promote warmer temperatures with highs in the upper 80s to around 90.
231 PM EDT Sat Sep 18 2021 A cold front will cross the area late tonight.
1251 PM EDT Sat Sep 18 2021 High pressure will maintain VFR conditions throughout the forecast with northeast flow 8-10 knots this afternoon decreasing late and veering to east/southeast by Sunday morning. The cold front clears the region by roughly 12Z this morning ending any further shower potential. High pressure follows the front settling over the region by midday. Clear skies across the region help to counteract the cooler airmass keeping high temps right around normal for this time of year in the mid 70s for the majority of SE MI. The exception will be the Thumb as north- northeast winds off Lake Huron keep highs in the low 70s with high 60s right along the lakeshore.
With the abundant moisture, weak flow, and high freezing levels there remains a threat for isolated flooding as highlighted in the HWO. Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 79 69 78 69 / 50 80 80 60 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 83 68 77 67 / 30 40 80 70 30 Oak Ridge, TN 68 83 68 76 66 / 30 60 80 70 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 85 66 78 65 / 20 20 30 50 20.
1123 AM MDT Sat Sep 18 2021 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains, with upper trof along the Pac NW coast. At the surface, strong lee trof is slowly advancing eastward into central MT and WY. Mostly clear skies very early this morning with some breezy southerly in advance of trof. Thermal ridge peaks overhead today with lee trof advancing to near the WY/SD line by late afternoon. South/southwest winds will remain gusty through the night with lee trof continuing its slow eastward movement. Another hot, dry, and breezy day expected on Sunday ahead of cold front associated with with upper trof pushing into the Northern Rockies. Cold front will move into northeast WY and far northwest SD by late afternoon, then sweep through much of western SD in the evening.
Conditions will then be quiet for several hours, then models show an upper low southwest of our region pushing northward late tonight.
The cold front has stalled roughly along I-70, with scattered showers bubbling up south of a line from Paris to Shelbyville. Sunday will see a Rex block in the eastern CONUS break down as the upper low lifts north from the lower Mississippi River Valley into Illinois. Highs farther south may be limited by increasing afternoon clouds, but northern areas should reach near 90 if not into the lower 90s. The surge of showers and isolated storms with the upper low will be primarily confined to areas east of I-55 Sunday night, as they expand northward through eastern Illinois.
223 PM MDT Sat Sep 18 2021 Water vapor shows the upper ridge shifting eastward, as an upper trough moves inland over the Pacific Northwest. Another warm, dry, and breezy to windy day expected on Sunday ahead of cold front associated with the upper trough crossing the Northern Rockies. A cold front will enter northeastern Wyoming and far northwestern South Dakota late Sunday afternoon, speeding across much of the rest of the forecast area in the evening. Pressure rises behind the cold front, in excess of 6mb/3hr, will lead to 2-3 hour period of very gusty northwest winds in the evening hours.
311 PM EDT Sat Sep 18 2021 High pressure is dead overhead this afternoon, providing very quiet wx. That will continue tonight, even as the high heads east and we get the first inklings of low-level return flow.
Primary forecast concerns are going to be focused on winds with the trough, temperatures and associated fire weather risks. A few locations, especially on local ridges may stay quite warm tonight as winds never get a chance to decouple tonight. With temperatures starting warmer on Sunday than today and a decent amount of sunshine expect temperatures to respond by climbing into the 90s. Cold front will sweep across the area overnight Sunday, likely in the 06-12Z period.
Some lingering MVFR/localized IFR cigs will be possible from this lower cloud cover through late morning, otherwise VFR conditions expected into early afternoon.
Otherwise, it will remain quiet elsewhere trough the night with lows dropping into the 60s by morning.
A busy weather day on tap today with an approaching cold front and trough of low pressure. A Pacific cold front will move through southeast Oregon 18z-20z and southwest Idaho 22z-24z. Showers will continue on Sunday, with isolated thunderstorms, as the upper level trough moves over our area.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): As the 500mb trough moves eastward out of Deep South Texas, the rain chances have decreased for the CWA for most of the period.
1154 AM CDT Sat Sep 18 2021 Fall is in the air this morning with high pressure sitting over the Duluth area, providing calm winds and mostly clear skies. Quiet conditions in store for today and tonight as the high slowly drifts east. High temperatures will be in the 80s with lows in the low to mid 60s.
A mid-level circulation, currently over far east Texas, will lift northward as trough move across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies.
/issued 302 AM CDT Sat Sep 18 2021/ Surface cold front has become diffuse this morning across the forecast area. Upper level ridge will remain overhead today which will lead to a continuation of the warm temperatures with most locations in the upper 80's to low 90's. A trough coming ashore the Pacific northwest, BC coast, will phase with a remnant trough that developed out of a disturbance off the coast of California. To our east, a closed low will continue its trek through the ArkLaTex while we remain under the influence of weak ridging between these two features. The remnant California trough will evolve to not much more than a subtle kink in the overall flow and the feature will move north of the area on Sunday.
321 PM CDT Sat Sep 18 2021 Through Sunday: A persistent mid level low circulation centered west of the lower MS River valley will continue to pull very moist air (precipitable water > 2 inches) northward through much of the ArkLaMiss region.
1043 AM CDT Sat Sep 18 2021 Convection slow to develop this morning despite vigorous upper low spinning across SE TX into Deep East Texas and NW LA attm. The one difference between today vs yesterday is that the low level circulation which once was Nicholas is virtually non-existent today and we are seeing slightly drier PWAT air wrapping around the east and northeast flank of the upper low across SE TX.