Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
530 AM CST Fri Dec 23 2016 12z TAFs: Some patchy MVFR cigs and brief sprinkles can't be ruled out early this morning as an upper level trough axis crosses the Panhandles. /Issued 452 AM CST Fri Dec 23 2016/ An upper trough will move across the Panhandles today allowing for decreasing clouds and drier conditions as the remaining rain over the far southeastern Texas Panhandle moves out of the forecast area by mid morning. Another closed upper low over the southwestern states Christmas Eve will track east and then lift northeast across the Four Corners region into the central Rockies by Christmas Day.
1044 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2016 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north today. The high will be off the Mid-Atlantic Coast tonight and Saturday and establish an onshore flow into the forecast area. A weakening cold front will be just northwest of the area Saturday. The front will dissipate and high pressure will ridge into the region from the north Christmas Day. The moisture advection should continue tonight but flat upper ridging should generally keep this moisture shallow except possibly in the northwest section closer to somewhat deeper moisture ahead of an approaching weakening front and farther from the stronger upper ridging to the south.
By 9 AM CST, the lowest layers will have warmed sufficiently to eliminate sleet. Christmas Weekend: The highlight continues to be strong-severe thunderstorms Christmas day. A strong, negatively-tilted upper-deck trough is scheduled to surge NE from AZ & NM early Christmas morning and undergo intense cyclogenesis as it continues to surge NE toward the Nebraska/SD state line Christmas afternoon and evening. As the vicious cyclone continues to sprint northeast across MN Christmas Night, the line of strong and severe thunderstorms would quickly end early in the evening. The next chance of precipitation may occur late Tue Night and very early Wed morning as a weak cold front surges southeast across Southeast KS. A patchy light wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain is still possible across central Kansas until mid-morning with scattered light rain over southeast Kansas.
06Z surface data has high pressure over the Ohio Valley with low pressure developing in southeast Colorado. Dew points were in the 20s across the Midwest with teens in the northern Plains and 30s in the lower Mississippi Valley. Right now overall snow amounts should be 1-2 inches in the highway 20 corridor.
The trough will move east of our area and into the Great Basin by Christmas Eve with a few showers lingering over the mountains overnight.
1027 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2016 High pressure will remain in control today. A weak cold front will move across the region Saturday afternoon. High pressure returns for Christmas day.
The stratus will erode today as winds increase ahead of the approaching upper level trough. Precipitation will the trough has already reached Central Oregon. Upper level trough axis is expected to pass overhead Saturday night which will rapidly diminish snowfall.
Temperatures running a little cooler at mid morning and have slowed warm up. With the low ceilings and mist/-DZ, visibilities will likely be reduced even further to 1-3SM Saturday morning as well. Christmas eve looks to be much warmer than normal with some highest minimum records possible.
525 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2016 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north today. The high will be off the Mid-Atlantic Coast tonight and Saturday and establish an onshore flow into the forecast area. A weakening cold front will be just northwest of the area Saturday. The front will dissipate and high pressure will ridge into the region from the north Christmas Day. The moisture advection should continue tonight but flat upper ridging should generally keep this moisture shallow except possibly in the northwest section closer to somewhat deeper moisture ahead of an approaching weakening front and farther from the stronger upper ridging to the south. The weakening cold front should be just northwest of the forecast area Saturday.
Saturday into Christmas, the deep trough over the entire west will be moving through the northern Rockies. Models continue to show a mid level (or 700mb) low pressure circulation associated with this trough. But answers to the big question of how much snow may occur will be dependent upon placement of this low pressure. The favored solution has the low developing and passing to our south in east central Idaho.
A mixed P-type will be possible as temps are aoa freezing in some locations. Arctic high pressure will nudge southward later tonight through Saturday with temperatures dropping back to near normal. The high will retreat northward late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night as wind become southerly ahead of our Christmas Day storm. The previous forecast mentioned freezing drizzle Saturday night after 6Z which looks reasonable at this time.
644 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2016 High pressure will continue to move off to the east today. A cold front will move through the area late tonight into Saturday morning.
923 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2016 High pressure passes south of the region today. A Pacific cold front will bring rain as it quickly tracks across the region on Saturday.
The cold front is moving ashore early this morning then move into the coastal range around 8 am. However the cold front is expected to move into the Rogue Valley early this afternoon with the cold air arriving toward this evening. Although snow accumulations will only be around half an inch to an inch at the lower elevations, travel across the Sexton Summit, Hayes Hill and other sideroads could be impacted, and elevations above 2500 feet could see snow accumulation up to 3 inches. Christmas Day is expected to be dry with high temperatures a few degrees cooler than normal for the west side. Freezing levels will drop significantly from about 4000 feet this morning to 1500-2000 feet by Saturday morning.
632 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2016 A low pressure system will result in unsettled weather this Christmas weekend. High pressure will be in control through much of today. As the system moves in from the west overnight, high pressure will continue to move eastward and out of the region. Some colder valleys, especially in the Greenbrier Valley, could see temps drop to around freezing. Model soundings indicate that on the onset of showers, those colder valleys could see a brief period of freezing rain before sunrise, before changing to all rain. For Saturday, WAA showers will be around for much of the day until the dampening s/w trof can move thru. This trend will hold into Christmas morning until a stronger surge of WAA/warm front crosses to scour out the crud and allow for a warm afternoon.
Weak cold front moved south of forecast area overnight.
SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): Weak stationary frontal boundary draped across the CWA this morning will retreat northward as a warm front this afternoon.
This trough has been modeled very consistently the last several days and current solutions maintain that consistency. The main core of precipitation will be breaking up over far eastern areas by midnight however expect to see scattered showers across much of the area through the night with the low snow levels.
452 AM CST Fri Dec 23 2016 An upper trough will move across the Panhandles today allowing for decreasing clouds and drier conditions as the remaining rain over the far southeastern Texas Panhandle moves out of the forecast area by mid morning. Another closed upper low over the southwestern states Christmas Eve will track east and then lift northeast across the Four Corners region into the central Rockies by Christmas Day.
652 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2016 High pressure passes south of the region today. A Pacific cold front will bring rain as it quickly tracks across the region on Saturday.
616 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2016 High pressure is expected to build across the area on today.
708 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2016 A ridge of high pressure over the Ohio and mid Mississippi valleys will build northeast overnight into the north country, and will remain over the region through Thursday.
830 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2016 The cold front that moved through last night is now well to the south with the parent upper trough moving off the North Carolina coast. Cooler and drier air filtered in today with highs only in the mid 60s to around 70. Even if the wind diminishes and temps fall quickly, lows still may be a few degrees warmer than the previous forecast in some places. This doesn't look as likely now with the wind and warmer temps but could still see it in sheltered locations so won't remove it from the forecast at this time. Thursday will be a near-repeat of Wednesday, but perhaps a degree or two warmer as the airmass in place moderates.
This feature will begin to lift northward through the day Thursday as an upper level trough across Northern Mexico begins to slowly fill and lift out to the north and east. Drier air continues to filter into the region behind a recent cold front so this will preclude the chance of fog through the morning hours.
For tonight, the upper-level trough over the northeast will swing out into the Atlantic as the surface boundary passes through the state. There is no rain in the forecast for Thursday as drier air moves into the area with high pressure settling into the deep south.
645 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2016 Drier and cooler air will overspread the region tonight in the wake of a cold front.
It will become windy Thursday and a cold front will move through but not bring any precipitation with it Thursday night.
A ridge of high pressure will continue to sink southeast across the region, with southwesterly return flow developing across the western portion of the forecast area by morning. 1030 mb high pressure over central KS and ridging northeast into northwest IL, will shift southeast into Texas, the mid MS and lower Ohio river valleys by dawn Thu. As high pressure settles southward into the Tennessee River Valley, southwesterly return flow will bring warmer conditions back to central Illinois on Thursday. The pressure gradient between the departing high and an approaching cold front will support wind gusts of 20-25mph during the afternoon. Thanks to the increasing southwesterly flow and abundant sunshine, high temperatures will climb into the lower to middle 60s.
621 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2016 High pressure builds in for dry and warmer conditions Thursday.
1046 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2016 Temperatures will continue to fall into the low-mid 30s with stratus exiting off to the south. In the wake of the cold frontal passage low clouds have prevailed across the forecast area today. With the return of sunshine on Thursday, daytime temperatures will be about 10 degrees warmer than today. With warm air advection quickly setting up, the stage will be set Thursday night for a significant ridge and valley temperature difference for overnight lows. This results in a nearly 10 degree temperature difference between the colder valleys and the thermal ridges.
645 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2016 High pressure will then provide mostly dry weather over the lower terrain through the end of the week with seasonable temperatures. Cooler and drier weather is forecast through the weekend. This has started to wind down the sprinkles and drizzle of earlier, however that will likely continue another couple of hours in and near the ridges. Fries Upper level heights are progged to slightly rise given the development of the ridge across the central U.
In the wake of the cold frontal passage low clouds have prevailed across the forecast area today. With the return of sunshine on Thursday, daytime temperatures will be about 10 degrees warmer than today. With warm air advection quickly setting up, the stage will be set Thursday night for a significant ridge and valley temperature difference for overnight lows. This results in a nearly 10 degree temperature difference between the colder valleys and the thermal ridges.
High pressure overhead, dry air and light to calm winds tonight will lead to good radiational cooling. Low temperatures should drop into the lower to middle 30s, which should lead to widespread frost.
Rex block persists Thursday, with upper ridge over the central Rockies and cutoff low spinning near El Paso, Texas.
High pressure is settling over the region. High pressure will be centered over the Mid-South by 12z Thursday. High pressure remains over the Mid-South with light winds through the end of the week.
One upper low near the TX Big Bend retrogrades west. while a second low slides off the NC/VA coast and out over the Atlantic - with relaxed ridging aloft the Gulf region. High pressure building in behind an exiting front will keep winds northeast or northerly for the next few days with speeds of 15 knots or less.
An upper ridge will continue to enter the Northern and Central Plains and maintain dry weather conditions throughout the coming days. Increased southwest downslope flow will advance ahead of an 850 hPa trough over much of northeastern Kansas and southeastern Nebraska by the afternoon hours Thursday.
926 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2016 High pressure builds in for dry and warmer conditions Thursday.
Weak cold front is analyzed over extreme SE GA to the central FL panhandle with notable wind shift from light westerly to northwest at 5-10 mph. Front should continue to push southward overnight with cooler and drier air filtering as mid level trough swings through central and north FL.
911 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2016 A cold front will continue to push south of the area overnight.
531 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2016 Upper level high pressure remains in control across the region, and will through Thursday. Lows will drop into the upper 20s in the lower elevations like the Platte River valley, with mid to upper 30s elsewhere. A Pacific cold front will cross the area early Thursday morning. As this occurs expect a rapid rise in temperatures as warmer air aloft is mixed to the surface. Then expect temperature to steady or fall some as cold air advection develops behind the cold front during the afternoon hours.
242 PM PST Wed Nov 9 2016 High pressure will prevail into the weekend with dry conditions, light winds and above average daytime temperatures.
The upper level low remains elongated stretching from Chihuahua to the Permian Basin and will slowly migrate to the AZ/NM line by tomorrow afternoon. Surface winds will veer to the southwest by tomorrow as well in response to the movement of the low and a surface front stretching from Hudson Bay down to northeast CO.
955 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2016 High pressure from the west will build toward the region overnight then cross the region on Thursday.
Ridge of high pressure will remain over the region through the end of the week for mostly clear skies, light winds and near record high temperatures.
Tonight and Thursday Region continues to reside under NE side of large upper ridge that is centered over the Rockies. This will allow cooler air to move in with moderate cold air advection behind associated surface front late Thursday. Thursday Night Through Wednesday A cold front will pass east of the area Thursday night.
Do not expect widespread freezing temperatures at this time, however many sheltered locations throughout the forecast area should see temps dip into mid-upper 30s with potential for frost in low lying areas. again majority of locations should stay a few degrees above freezing.
Moderating airmass and downslope west and northwest winds will make for a slightly warmer overnight compared to this morning. Cooler than Wednesday night with a slightly cooler airmass.
In the warming southwesterly flow, a typical maximum of winds will strengthen around the Buffalo Ridge area of southwest Minnesota. Wind variations over the area will help to make a diverse low temperature pattern tonight, with the warmest values in the mid 40s in the Buffalo Ridge area, and southwest of Chamberlain to Pickstown.
953 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2016 High pressure will then provide mostly dry weather over the lower terrain through the end of the week with seasonable temperatures. Cooler and drier weather is forecast through the weekend. That said, as flow remains westerly to northwesterly, upslope flow into the ridges will likely continue to allow for it to persist there and in the immediate environs to the west of the ridges. Temperatures were cut a few degrees with this update, mainly in Ohio and in the ridges, where overnight low expectations were already close to being challenged. Fries Upper level heights are progged to slightly rise given the development of the ridge across the central U.
348 PM PST Wed Nov 9 2016 A ridge of high pressure aloft will keep the area dry for a few days.
The exception being the low clouds along the coast. Zooming out to the big picture, there is a ridge centered to the east over the Midwest and trough centered in the Gulf of Alaska, leaving us in southwest flow aloft.
Latest CONSSHORT minimum temperatures were two to three degrees warmer than forecast. and given sky/wind forecast, cooler MIN T in inherited forecast seems more reasonable and will lower (from CONSSHORT guidance) overnight hourly temps. FROPA will push across the area in the early morning with winds turning to the northwest with cooler blyr air filtering down in its wake.
1008 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2016 Drier and cooler air will overspread the region tonight in the wake of a cold front.
A dry cold front across southern Manitoba and Saskatchewan this evening is forecast to propagate across western and central North Dakota tonight. A weak dry cold front will drop south through the forecast area tonight bringing cooler temperatures and breezy conditions on Thursday. With the current warm airmass overhead today and the cold front moving through tonight, our potential for temperatures bottoming out tonight will not be as great as the past nights. However we did blend given guidance with cooler MOS guidance as we should still remain mostly clear with winds not picking up until after midnight. Breezy on Thursday behind a cold front with the strongest winds expected north and east, with high pressure building into the west during the afternoon.
532 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2016 GOES water vapor imagery/GFS 500mb height analysis has a huge/sprawling ridge of high pressure extending across the Interior West/through Canada and the western Great Lakes region. A mid-level trough/surface cold front drop through the region Thursday. this should warm surface temperatures into the lower/middle 60s before the front rolls through in the afternoon. High pressure builds toward the region Thursday night from southern Canada.
Current Situation and Analysis -- Weak ridging prevails at most altitudes above the Florida Keys this evening, with a slowly weakening mean sea level pressure pattern. A high pressure system will persist over the southeastern United States overnight through Thursday.
The upper level low over northern Mexico and west Texas will retrograde further west away from the region. Scattered light showers have been progressively streaming across the marine zones and South Texas today with a weak coastal trough maintaining north/northwest flow at the surface. As the upper low retrogrades further away from the region moisture will gradually decrease.
18Z surface data had high pressure from the southern Plains into the western Great Lakes. Quiet and dry conditions will be seen from late this afternoon through tonight as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley.
906 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2016 High pressure will then provide mostly dry weather over the lower terrain through the end of the week with seasonable temperatures. Cooler and drier weather is forecast through the weekend. That said, as flow remains westerly to northwesterly, upslope flow into the ridges will likely continue to allow for it to persist there and in the immediate environs to the west of the ridges. Temperatures were cut a few degrees with this update, mainly in Ohio and in the ridges, where overnight low expectations were already close to being challenged. Fries Upper level heights are progged to slightly rise given the development of the ridge across the central U.
High pressure will remain firmly in place over a majority of the southwest US for the end of the week with a Rex block positioned over the central US. With the ridging over the region, persistence forecasting seems to be the way to go.
959 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2016 Potential for frost in northern areas appears marginal with broken to overcast clouds hanging on, and temperatures in that area running a few degrees warmer than forecast as a result.
/ISSUED 321 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2016/ The slow-moving cold front which pushed through North and Central Texas appears to have become stationary just south of the region. Meanwhile, an upper low over far West Texas will shift slowly west into Northern Mexico through the end of the work week. Precipitation will gradually diminish overnight as the low moves farther away, the front starts losing its identity and lift simply comes to an end.
A cold front is moving south across the area this afternoon, ushering in some drier/cooler air. Upper and surface ridging will continue to build into the area on Thursday with mainly clear skies and light northerly winds. /15/ A ridge over the ArkLaMiss Thursday night will yield light to calm winds and ideal conditions for radiational cooling. However, the upper low over northern Mexico accompanied by the sub-tropical jet will carry some high cirrus from the west into our CWA and will deter temps from dropping too low. As the weekend then approaches, a frontal boundary will pass through the region and bring slightly cooler temps. As the front progresses south and eastward, high pressure will move into the Mid-MS valley.
555 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2016 1030 mb high pressure over central KS and ridging northeast into northwest IL, will shift southeast into Texas, the mid MS and lower Ohio river valleys by dawn Thu. As high pressure settles southward into the Tennessee River Valley, southwesterly return flow will bring warmer conditions back to central Illinois on Thursday. The pressure gradient between the departing high and an approaching cold front will support wind gusts of 20-25mph during the afternoon. Thanks to the increasing southwesterly flow and abundant sunshine, high temperatures will climb into the lower to middle 60s.
With the southerly winds and high pressure axis south of the CWA, believe lows tonight will not reach freezing levels with short term guidance in good agreement with readings in the middle to upper 30s. Southerly winds continue to increase from 10 to 15 mph sustained in the afternoon Thursday as a cold front approaches the northern KS border. The strong warm advection through 925 mb should boost highs at least 10 degrees higher than today in the lower 70s. By Thursday night, a dry cold front will be just north of the forecast area moving through northeast Kansas overnight.
Winds diminish and back to west-southwest tonight north of building high pressure, then settle to southwesterly for Thursday. * None Model data strongly supports an atmosphere that will be predisposed to upper level ridging and blocking over much of North America through this weekend.
A strong upper level ridge of high pressure over the region will maintain dry weather conditions and above average temperatures through Thursday.
547 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2016 After a cool and frosty start this morning, temperatures have warmed nicely into the lower 60s this afternoon in most areas with full sunshine and a light southwest breeze. An upper level ridge will remain situated over the western United States acting to keep our area dry and warmer than normal. A cold front will slide southeast across the region that will turn the wind from southwesterly during the morning hours to northerly by later in the day.
Dry and mild weather can be expected tonight and Thursday as an upper level ridge builds over the area then shifts east.
940 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2016 High pressure builds across the area through Thursday night.
VFR conditions with light northerly winds for this TAF cycle as high pressure settles in.