Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1037 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016 THE MORNING CAPE SOUNDING SHOWS MOISTENING OF THE AIRMASS BOTH ALOFT (300-500MB) AND IN THE LOW LEVELS (BELOW 850 MB) WHILE THE MID LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO CURRENT FORECAST SHOWING HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S NEAR THE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND. RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL PRODUCE A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
922 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016 AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A DEEP LAYER RIDGE IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC IS IN CONTROL OF LOCAL WEATHER WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND A MORE TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION AROUND 6900 FEET. WITH THE RIDGE IN CONTROL AS MENTIONED ABOVE. WINDS WILL PEAK AND LULL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BREAKS DOWN.
645 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016 WATER VAPOR/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH WESTERN IA/MO. PV- ADVECTION/LIFT/CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WAS PRODUCING A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE NW-SE BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. THE THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LIFTING THIS TROUGH NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TOTALLY EXITING BY LATER THIS EVENING. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER THREAT MAY BE SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL WITH SLOWER MOVING COLD FRONT PER NAM PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.
BUT RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S.
604 AM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016 IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN COLORADO AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO WESTERN WYOMING. THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY WITH DRY NORTHWESTERLY LOW TO MIDLVL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK FOR CLEAR SKIES.
558 AM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016 A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT SWEEPS THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVING OVER EASTERN MONTANA. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY. BUT WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL OR ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO AND ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA SWEEPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
725 AM MST TUE MAY 10 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEK FOR A GRADUAL.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
/ISSUED 402 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016/ A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS TODAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO NE NM AROUND THE SAME TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT. BRINGING SOME COOLER AIR AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CENTRAL AND EAST.
AREA OF THUNDER OVER N AL/TN ARE DIMINISHING AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 82 64 85 66 / 60 20 40 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 82 63 83 64 / 50 30 40 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 81 63 82 65 / 60 40 50 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 80 59 80 61 / 50 50 50 40.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEK FOR A GRADUAL.
Cold front passage progged for 14-15Z for AUS this morning should shift winds to the north and re-enforce the dry atmosphere in place over the region. Morning lows should fall to the low 50s and would not be surprised to see upper 40s in a couple of low lying areas such as river channels or valleys.
Otherwise, high pressure is settling over the region. As the area of low pressure currently residing near Chicago continues to slowly sink southward through thursday, it will allow for a ridge axis to slide east into the western Lake Superior region. This ridging will bring more sun and warmer temperatures into Thursday.
412 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016 A cold front will advance through the forecast area today and stall along or just off the coast tonight. High pressure will then build into the region thereafter. Isolated showers and tstms associated with a pre-frontal trough have been dissipating over interior SC early this morning. Although a massive upper low will be shifting into central Tennessee today, there will be little in the way of upper forcing for precipitation. A moderate sea breeze may pop a few showers or tstms later this afternoon, then as the cold front pushes into the area this evening, some showers and storms are possible mainly over the eastern half of the area.
A gradual cooling trend will continue through Friday as an upper ridge drifts slowly east through the end of the week.
Ridging will remain in place. and considering the blocking nature of the atmosphere see little chance for clearing until day time heating has an effect. another dry period with temperatures slightly warmer than yesterday.
Not quite as warm as yesterday due to cloud cover in Idaho, and Pacific upper trough approaching Oregon. 5 to 8 degs cooler again Friday as the the upper trough moves closer to the coast. Surface thermal pressure trough will still be along the OR/ID border through Friday causing east or southeast winds in Idaho and south winds shifting to southwest in Oregon.
Current GOES water vapor satellite imagery and upper air analysis depict an upper level closed low spinning just south of the Great Lakes. Closer to the ArkLaMiss, an associated reinforcing cold front is making its way through our region.
Cooling trend will continue into the weekend as the marine layer and onshore flow become better established with a trough along the West Coast. In addition, a dry cold front will go through on Friday which will lead to breezy conditions. Synoptically heights will be on the decrease as an upper level low associated with a longwave trough currently along the BC coastline will continue to progress to the south through the day.
Cold front will progress through the CWA later today and tonight wind winds becoming primarily for the north by the overnight period. Weakening cold front is analyzed early this morning just to our northwest with dewpoints remaining in the 70s across the entire CWA. The further upstream cold front, with the accompanied drier air and more noticeable wind shift to the north, is analyzed across central Mississippi and north central Alabama. Some drier air will filter into SE Alabama and SW Georgia today with the actual cold front making through the area tonight.
411 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016 Synopsis: High pressure will gradually nose westward into South Florida over the weekend, but warm, humid conditions will prevail with daily chances for thunderstorms.
300 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 07z/2am water vapor imagery shows center of unseasonably deep upper low over southern Indiana, with primary mid-level moisture plume wrapping around the system from the Carolinas N/NW into southern Michigan. As this slug of moisture continues to pivot around the low, it is expected to spill into east-central Illinois today. Showery conditions will continue tonight as another vorticity max rotates around the parent upper low. As has been advertised by the last few model runs, the upper low is expected to drop southward into Kentucky today, then begin lifting back northward on Friday.
upper low continues to weaken and lift out across UT and western CO later tonight. while remaining similar to a degree two cooler than yesterday for the eastern areas. particularly near the KS border where low level southeasterly flow advects cooler airmass across the central plains back westward into far eastern CO. Low temperatures should be warmer.
A strong upper level low pressure system over the southern Great Lakes this morning will slowly move south into the Ohio Valley through Thursday. This system pushed a weak backdoor cold front through southwest Kansas this morning. The cooler high pressure airmass will keep temperatures confined to around 70 degrees in central Kansas ranging to the mid 70s along the Colorado border. Drier air associated with the upper level high pressure ridge will keep skies mainly clear through Thursday. The upper level ridge over the central Plains will begin to break down by weeks end with westerly, albeit weak, flow aloft increasing over the central High Plains.
318 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 Though 3 to 4 hours slower than expected on previous forecast, the cold front is now here and moving into Central Texas as noted by area radar and observations. Meanwhile, a broad upper ridge has developed over the Plains, while a detached upper low continues sinking slowly south across the Ohio Valley and toward the Tennessee Valley. Mostly sunny skies will occur underneath the upper ridge today, while modest cold advection occurs in the lowest 5000 feet.
313 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 Latest water vapor imagery in addition to RAP 500 mb analysis shows an upper ridge axis extending over the nation's mid section. This is sandwiched in between a trough to our west and a deep low to our northeast. At the surface, a ridge axis extends from the eastern Dakotas into eastern Nebrsaka. Otherwise, dry weather is expected to continue for the forecast area through the weekend with temperatures close to normal for this time of year as the upper low to our northeast continues to spin south of the Great Lakes.
Weak cold front has sagged into North Texas early this morning. Dewpoint temperatures will gradually decrease through the evening leaving a relatively cool night ahead with lows in the lower 60s for a majority of the area.
359 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 (Today and Tonight) A weak cold front continues to head south across west central Texas early this morning.
253 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 The upper low currently over the Ohio Valley will remain stationary for at least the next 24 hours, with this blocky pattern leading to the upper ridge building across the plains. Northerly flow on the north side of the low will lead to cold advection continuing over the area today, with mostly clear skies with afternoon temps struggling to make it into the upper 60s to lower 70s.
The initial band of moist air and lift associated with vort axis rotating into the Southern Appalachians in association with the Midwest Upper Low will continue slowly east early in the day impacting mainly Southwest Virginia and Northeast Tennessee. Max temperatures should be about 10 degrees cooler today topping out mainly in the lower 70s.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue across northern Arizona through Friday as weak low pressure moves across the region. Moisture continues to increase on Thursday as the upper-level low lifts to the northeast and a trough approaches the region from the southwest. By Friday, the trough crosses the state with a drier westerly wind setting up behind the disturbance. The weekend will be dry with increasing westerly flow ahead of a developing trough over the west coast.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected today and will be favored over the higher terrain. By Friday, showers will be much more limited as drier air begins to move into the area ahead of a trough.
The 29/04z HRRR- TLE shows the highest probs for 0. 00 inch rainfall thru 12z located over the western Blue Ridge/WV/MD panhandles into the southern Laurel Highlands and over the Delmarva/Chesapeake Bay. An enhanced convergence axis/frontal zone is progged to develop on the east side of an upper low meandering over the OH/TN Valley, tapping into deep moisture/high PW air off the Atlantic Gulf Stream via anomalous east/southeast low level jet. The upper low is fcst to drift back to the west/NW into the OH Valley on Friday before slowly moving to the ENE across the Lower Great Lakes through the weekend. The upper level low will continue to slowly move through the Eastern Great Lakes region and into Southern Canada which should pull the moisture to the north.
Mainly VFR conditions are forecast through the period with high pressure continuing to build. However, drier air is expected to filter into S TX overnight as reinforcing high pressure builds into the area. This will maintain mild/cooler temps and dry conditions overnight into Thu. Reinforcing surge of high pressure/front is prog to arrive late tonight into Thursday morning. max temps may be a couple of degrees warmer Thursday than today as cooler airmass to the north does not arrive until Friday. Mainly clear skies continue Thursday into Thursday night with noticeably cooler conditions prog to occur Thurs night.
/06Z ISSUANCE/ The remnants of an upper level low pressure system will lift north northeast across the eastern Great Basin and western Wyoming Thursday. Tonight Through Thursday A rather warm upper level low pressure trough over southern California and the Desert Southwest will move north northeast bringing increased mid and upper level moisture into western Wyoming with some showers developing over the southwest mountains tonight. The low will weaken significantly as it moves north but will continue to pump up moisture into Wyoming with increased clouds, showers and isolated thunderstorms Thursday with generally mild temperatures.
134 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016 A large upper level low brings unsettled weather into the area tonight. A broad and deep upper low over the Great Lakes region will move south over the OH Valley and WV tonight. Large, anomalously deep upper level low meanders in KY Friday before drifting north over into the weekend. As with previous forecasts, the highest pops remain across these locales.
An area of low pressure aloft will provide periods of showers and thunderstorms today.
138 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016 Low pressure over Indiana will drift to the Ohio Valley tonight where it will remain through Friday. The low will drift back north across the Great Lakes this weekend.
Weakening cold front is analyzed early this morning just to our northwest with dewpoints remaining in the 70s across the entire CWA. The further upstream cold front, with the accompanied drier air and more noticeable wind shift to the north, is analyzed across central Mississippi and north central Alabama. Some drier air will filter into SE Alabama and SW Georgia today with the actual cold front making through the area tonight.
529 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016 Pesky closed low situated over southern Indiana early this morning with a ridge of high pressure folding into our region from the Plains. Ridge of high pressure holds strong across the region today for mostly sunny and pleasant conditions. Clouds spread into the area from southeast to the northwest after midnight tonight as that pesky closed low swings a trough/lobe of pv- advection toward the area.
High pressure will keep skies clear overnight with light winds. as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds over the northern Plains.
Only aviation concern this TAF period should be the passage of a cold front shortly after daybreak for KAUS. Overnight lows will range from the upper 50s across the Hill Country to the lower and mid 60s elsewhere. A cool night is in store for Thursday evening with overnight lows dropping to the lower 50s across the Hill Country.
Dry NE low level flow well north of the low center has kept much of our CWA mostly clear thru the night. With the low remaining basically stagnant over the Ohio Valley combined with persistent dry NE low level flow. The upper low that moved across the region over the last few days has settled south across the southern Ohio Valley as advertised.
As the surface, high pressure extended from southern Canada south across the Great Plains. Aloft, a large upper level low is diving south from the Great Lakes to the Ohio River Valley. Another area of low pressure was located over southern California. Sandwiched in-between is a ridge of high pressure over the High Plains. Temperatures should be cooler, yet still seasonable, tomorrow as a result of the weak frontal passage and gusty winds.
223 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 Cold front has pushed into northern Alabama and eastern Tennessee at this time and will continue move away from our area however stacked closed upper level cyclone will sink southward from current position over central Indiana next couple of days keeping clouds and shower chances on going with temps more typical of Autumn.
304 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 Main upper jet over the continent was from the Pacific Northwest into eastern Canada per water vapor imagery with blocking regime over much of the CONUS with upper ridge over the High Plains between the lows off the coast of British Columbia and over the Ohio Valley.
/Issued 334 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016/ A closed low pressure system remained located over/near the Ohio River Valley early this morning. while a ridge of high pressure resided over the western third of the CONUS. light northerly winds transporting cooler and drier air along with mostly clear skies were common across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. The synoptic features and conditions mentioned above are expected to remain nearly unchanged over the next couple of days as the closed low continues to hold near the Ohio River Valley.
Anomalously deep upper level low will hang right over Kentucky for much of the short term period. While there is excellent model agreement in the upper level low progression and tracks, there remains a bit of uncertainty about precipitation coverage and temperatures during the period. In terms of sensible weather, cloudy conditions are expected today through Friday as the upper low remains overhead. Current thinking is that we'll see most locations in the lower to middle 60s for highs. given that the upper low is overhead. Lows will range from the upper 40s to the lower 50s. Highs will remain in the lower-mid 60s in many locations, though our southern sections could see some upper 60s in spots.
/Today/ No major concerns through the morning and daytime hours today with mostly clear skies, lighter northerly winds and gusts around 7-10kts and 15kts respectively, and warmer temperatures in the upper 60s to around 70 prevailing.
636 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016 High pressure ridge will remain across the region through the end of the week.
A weak cold front is moving into the area so gradually that only a gradual wind shift can be expected. Light and variable winds overnight then a weak cold front mid morning shifts winds to the NE with speeds generally 10-12kt sustained. However an amplifying upper level ridge will suppress most convection and keep the area dry through the weekend. A deep low over the southern Great Lakes has north winds over the plains which has brought cooler and drier air into West Texas and eastern New Mexico the past several days. This low will unfortunately move east by the weekend causing south winds and above normal temps to return.
1111 PM MDT WED SEP 28 2016 The upper level ridge over the area will be shifting a little eastward for tonight and Thursday, as an upper low over southern CA weakens and moves over the Great Basin, and an upper trof approaches the Pacific NW. Most low temps tonight at the lower elevations will be in the 40s, with a few locations in the 30s.
We will see winds shift to south/southeast as the high pressure axis moves east. The only other weather to note is a plume of moisture aloft coming out ahead of the longwave trof with a tenuous connection to the tropical pacific.
A cooler airmass will also lead to highs generally in the low to mid 70s over most of the area Today. Upper 70's is more possible on the higher terrain, say from Johnson to Elkhart.
1156 PM MDT WED SEP 28 2016 06Z TAF CYCLE Sprinkles and -SHRA will continue moving slowly north over western NM ahead of a trough of low pressure approaching from AZ. A weak upper low over southern California will draw moisture up from Tropical Depression Roslyn, bringing it northward across western New Mexico tonight through Thursday night.
Do expect cloud that are rotating around an upper low that is currently over Indiana to spread westward today. RAP is showing low level moisture moving westward today and there will be embedded vort centers moving on the west side of the upper low. Went a bit closer to the warmer NAM MOS temperatures, particularly over the west have of the CWA where I expect a bit more sun into the afternoon before it turns mostly cloudy.
345 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016 Upper low to the east has had a substantial effect on western Nebraska's weather for the past several days and will continue to do so today and tonight. The low centered over Kentucky will continue to draw cooler air aloft into western Nebraska today with 850mb temperatures at 14c yesterday to 11c today.
Pesky upper low which is bringing today's rains will not move much during the short-term period. It still looks like we will have a band of precip over our southeast later this afteroon, as warm air invites new development from the band rotating around the upper low. We also should see some shower development across our north, closer to the upper low. Freezing levels are even lower tomorrow, so cannot rule out at least some small hail. The presence of the upper low Thursday night right over us could bring better coverage of showers, despite lack of surface heating. Temperatures should stay below normal thanks to the cooler thicknesses aloft as well as the cloud cover.
334 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016 Pesky closed low situated over southern Indiana early this morning with a ridge of high pressure folding into our region from the Plains. Ridge of high pressure holds strong across the region today for mostly sunny and pleasant conditions. Clouds spread into the area from southeast to the northwest after midnight tonight as that pesky closed low swings a trough/lobe of pv- advection toward the area.
An upper ridge will continue over parts of the region for the rest of the work week with a closed low over the Ohio Valley and upper trough along the West Coast.
A secondary surface cold front is moving through Central Alabama currently just south of a line from TCL. At the same time, we also have a large upper low spinning across Eastern Conus. Otherwise, just a much more pleasant and cooler day overall is on tap.
Surface analysis this morning places a cold front from East Tennessee back through Central Mississippi and Northern Louisiana. Meanwhile, Water Vapor Satellite trends place an upper level low centered near Indianapolis. An upper level low over Central Indiana will gradually move south towards Central Kentucky and Middle Tennessee on Friday.
300 AM PDT Thu Sep 29 2016 High pressure over northeast California and western Nevada will exit the region today with a few showers possible over southern Mono and western Mineral Counties. A cold trough moves into the West Coast this weekend bringing breezy and much cooler conditions.
359 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016 WV satellite imagery this morning shows the cut off upper level low currently centered over the Ohio River Valley and drifting southward. At the surface, a cold front extends from the low across the Southeast through the LA/AR border to the Red River in TX and OK. The cold front is forecast to move through the area and clear the coastal waters late tonight. High pressure behind the front will result in some of the coolest temperatures in several months for the weekend.
A low stratus deck has formed possibly from moisture rotating around the low and lake to 850 mb temperature differences of 8C. A lobe of vorticity will rotate around the upper low and pass through srn WI tonight. Kept temps a little cooler for today given more clouds.