Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
NW16G29KT for TX terminals and NW15-25KT elsewhere all afternoon as a strong upper low moves from the plains to across the MS river valley. /Tonight through Friday Night/ Cold front continues to make steady SE progress across the region this afternoon with gusty NW winds following fropa and continuing through sunset. Thus, expect mostly clear skies overnight with low temperatures falling into the lower to mid 30s as W/NW winds drop off sharply later tonight. In addition, the winds combined with very dry air in place behind the cold front will also result in very low RH values on Friday, generally in the 15-25% range as temperatures gradually warm into the lower to mid 50s by Friday afternoon.
Air temperatures will be in the upper 20s to around freezing across much of the area, with surface dew points being a few degrees lower which will promote wet-bulb cooling through the day.
/issued 205 PM CST Thu Jan 14 2021/ Upper trough swinging across the plains today will develop into a closed low as it moves into the Mississippi River Valley.
745 PM MST Thu Jan 14 2021 The High Wind Warnings have all been cancelled as winds continue to slowly lessen. The storm broke the back of a weather pattern of a semi- permanent ridge over the northern Rockies of late.
Expect this snow to continue to wraparound the large upper level low pressure area into Friday. Models and bufkit soundings were showing qpf/snowfall into Friday into our eastern cwa with the highest amounts in the Sisseton Hills.
Not expecting any prolonged intense snowfall over one location yet combined with temps falling well below freezing into the low 20s by commute time a refreeze of wet surfaces is expected. For this reason will keep most of the winter weather advisory going, as it will cover both freezing drizzle/mixed precipitation as well as patchy blowing snow impacts. This weekend will be rather quiet, with temperatures a bit cooler.
729 PM CST Thu Jan 14 2021 A potent upper-level trough is moving across the central CONUS this evening, driving a strong cold front through the Mid-South. This cold front currently extends from near Union City, to Memphis, to Helena-West Helena with a band of showers along the boundary. Looking ahead to tomorrow, the deep, trough over the Plains will become vertically stacked as it moves very slowly to the east across the OH Valley. A vort lobe on the backside of the trough is progged to swing southeast toward the Mid-South late in the day, enhanced lift across the region. /issued 1256 PM CST Thu Jan 14 2021/ A low pressure system moves south over the Rockies and into the upper MS River valley early Friday. The low continues to push east over the Great Lakes and into Canada.
131 PM PST Thu Jan 14 2021 High pressure will remain overhead through the weekend with mainly light winds, weak to moderate inversions, and mild temperatures. Strong ridge of high pressure brought warming last night for many mountain top locations with quite the temperature contrast compared for valley locations. This inversion was quite pronounced in the 12z REV sounding with a the freezing level all the way up at 11. Winds will begin to increase aloft by Friday morning, strengthening into the afternoon with gusts around 45-60 mph along ridgelines.
544 PM CST Thu Jan 14 2021 A cold front will bring rain to central Illinois this evening, then mix with or change to snow late this evening and overnight. Over the next couple days, expect highs in the low to mid 30s and overnight lows in the upper 20s to around 30. This afternoon, a cold front is passing across the Illinois River Valley into central Illinois with accompanying rain a breezy west winds. Initially rain, falling temps behind the cold front will allow precip to mix with or transition over to snow late this evening and overnight, especially north of I-72. Once precip associated with the cold front moves through this evening, expect a several hour lull in precip across central Illinois.
516 PM CST Thu Jan 14 2021 (This evening through Friday) Fairly strong and gusty north winds have occurred in the wake of cold frontal passage from this morning. A large upper level low will drift east across portions of the Midwest on Friday. This is where surface pressure gradient will be tightened, and where some downward momentum transport is expected as northwest winds become aligned in the lower to mid levels. Despite abundant sunshine, temperatures will be a little cooler across our area.
735 PM EST Thu Jan 14 2021 High pressure over the area this evening will bring near normal temperatures for the remainder of today. A strong cold front will cross the area Friday, bringing showers.
718 PM EST Thu Jan 14 2021 Large upper low continues to spin into the Midwest U.
229 PM MST Thu Jan 14 2021 Deep closed low over the Midwest will slowly spin eastward through Friday. On the backside of this low, strong northerly flow will prevail over Colorado tonight. The strong north-northwest flow aloft is expected to bring windy conditions to the higher mountains tonight and Friday. Already expired the High Wind Warning for the southern foothills, Palmer Divide, and western areas of the Denver Metro area. The pressure gradient is expected to tighten up again Friday morning, so will keep this High Wind Warning in effect through Friday afternoon. Not sure it will get this low, but should be low enough for Red Flag conditions, and thus issue a Red Flag Warning. This pattern will bring dry weather to all of North Central and Northeastern Colorado with breezy conditons across the high country.
A deep longwave trough over Plains is deepening this evening as a robust jet streak plunges southward across the Rockies. Central to northwest Iowa is likely to be one of the areas receiving the highest snowfall rates and totals in this weather setup. The Buffalo Ridge in southwest Minnesota is also likely to see enhanced snow totals due to orographic lift assisting the already conductive synoptic forcing. This is largely due to the southward shift in the low center and northeasterly winds causing downsloping (and therefore sinking motion) off the Buffalo Ridge. Behind this weather system, weekend temperatures are surprisingly mild due to a robust ridge moving through the northwesterly flow pattern.
High pressure over the region has brought us a pretty nice mid January day with plenty of sun and warm temperatures near 40 degrees.
248 PM MST Thu Jan 14 2021 A deep trough currently tracking its way southeast across the central CONUS and a ridge of high pressure just of the California coast is keep us under a tightened pressure gradient. With the jet positioned just east of our forecast area, the higher elevations are epxeriencing some strong and gusty winds this afternoon.
A light shower will be possible across a portion of the eastern area before midnight mainly near Meridian location due to some return moisture from an upper level trough swinging through. The previous mentioned upper trough will swing across the plains and continue to progress east Friday, dragging a dry/cold front through the region. As this cold front pushes through, there will be a tight pressure gradient which is a good indicator that there will be some high winds at the surface. On top of winds, temperatures will be cooler tomorrow with some places in the north only reaching the upper 40s while elsewhere will be in the lower 50s.
(Today and tonight) Early this morning, water vapor satellite showed a strong and large upper low over the Midwest, with northwest flow aloft over our region. At the surface, winds have weakened significantly, with high pressure from the northwest building into the area. Expect cooler highs today in the mid to upper 50s.
1053 PM MST Thu Jan 14 2021 A deep trough currently tracking its way southeast across the central CONUS and a ridge of high pressure just of the California coast is keep us under a tightened pressure gradient. With the jet positioned just east of our forecast area, the higher elevations are experiencing some strong and gusty winds this afternoon.
A robust northwest downslope flow will continue to usher much drier air into the high plains of western Kansas through this afternoon, reinforcing an already overly dry air mass across the region and capping any precip chances through the remainder of the period. With some northwest downsloping likely to offset cooling near the surface somewhat, look for afternoon highs generally up into the lower/mid 40s(F) under mostly sunny skies.
Visibility at Watertown, Wheaton and Ortonville has been around 2 mile or greater, so there is some concern the blizzard warning is really only relevant for the higher terrain (not that locations outside the hills aren't seeing blizzard, it would just be more intermittent).
/issued 729 PM CST Thu Jan 14 2021/ A potent upper-level trough is moving across the central CONUS this evening, driving a strong cold front through the Mid-South. This cold front currently extends from near Union City, to Memphis, to Helena-West Helena with a band of showers along the boundary. Looking ahead to tomorrow, the deep, trough over the Plains will become vertically stacked as it moves very slowly to the east across the OH Valley. A vort lobe on the backside of the trough is progged to swing southeast toward the Mid-South late in the day, enhanced lift across the region. /issued 1256 PM CST Thu Jan 14 2021/ A low pressure system moves south over the Rockies and into the upper MS River valley early Friday. The low continues to push east over the Great Lakes and into Canada.
1005 PM MST Thu Jan 14 2021 Rapidly deepening low pressure continues to dig across Iowa and the Middle Mississippi River Valley, with high pressure slowly moving east across the Pacific Northwest.
Winds and cloud cover increase by 18Z as a cold front approaches from the northwest. /issued 718 PM EST Thu Jan 14 2021/ Large upper low continues to spin into the Midwest U.
High pressure extending NE from the southern GOMEX across Florida this evening, resulting in light/calm winds after sunset. Temperatures at 9 PM were in the upper 40s/low 50s for much of ECFL, except a few degrees cooler/warmer across the far north and far SE respectively. This should cause nocturnal temperatures to fall slowly, with overnight low temperatures in the low 40s across northern Volusia and NE Lake counties, with mid to upper 40s everywhere else except low 50s across the Martin and St.
NW20G35KT for TX terminals and NW15G25-30KT elsewhere all afternoon as a strong upper low moves from the plains to across the MS river valley. Aloft, the low level winds will be picking up overnight and especially toward daybreak for aviation concerns.
Models handling the low well and continue to expect the occluded system to track south southwest with time early this morning. As it does, the low will continue to fill as warmer air aloft gets pulled into the storm from the northeast. At 130 am, winds are gusting from 40 to 50 mph at Estherville southwest to Harlan with the highest gust at this time at Sioux City at 57 mph. The lowest visibility continues to be tied to the higher winds over the west with 1/4 to 3/4 most common. Both the HRRR and synoptic models support a gradual lessening in winds speeds back toward the west after 13z this morning as the low continues to push south into Missouri this morning.
Therefore, we have cancelled the high wind warnings across our eastern zones. Will let the High Wind Warning continue for these locations, but have cancelled southern Bighorn county. Dry conditions will prevail tonight and most of Friday as we undergo a period of upper level ridging. By tomorrow night a weak Pacific wave will break down the ridge and bring a brief shot of light rain/snow showers to mainly our mountains and upslope areas southeast of Billings. The high elevations will likely pick up a couple inches of snow.
Surface temps have managed to stay above freezing despite diurnal cooling. A few places on the Plateau could fall to near- freezing around sunrise and could see a little wintry mix as the prcp moves eastward, but this should be very brief if at all. Thanks to some CAA behind the front that will pass through this morning temps will be much cooler and more seasonable today. Following sunset temps will begin to cool rapidly eventually reaching below freezing by tomorrow morning. Speaking of freezing, how quickly the cold air arrives to Middle TN overnight plays a large factor in snowfall accumulations. Most of the area will be near to below freezing after midnight through the early morning hours, leading me to believe the predominate prcp type will in fact be snow.
This Evening Through Thursday Upper trof extends from Winnipeg area to Missouri Valley with strong jet stream behind it over forecast area while upper ridge builds over western US. UNR recently had a gust of 77 mph, the highest for this wind event. Forecast area will remain under northerly jet through Friday as upper low moves southeast and upper ridge flattens as it moves over the Rockies.
At the surface deep low pressure is situated over MN with high pressure over the Northern/Central Rockies, setting up strong pressure gradient over the Plains. Deep upper low will slowly migrate across northern MO into central IL on Fri keeping very anomalous deep northwest flow over the Plains. Very strong northwest winds will continue to plague central and eastern Kansas overnight thru Friday as low pressure continues to deepen across eastern Iowa into western Illinois. Mid-level moisture will wrap around the low, moving south across the area with some virga/widely scattered snow showers. The higher end of this range still looks to be for areas along and especially west of I-135.
This cyclone is now filling a bit so suspect that our downward trend in winds will very gradually occur through the day, but still plenty of wind in the mixed layer through the day, so gusts of 40 to 60 mph still very much possible.
920 PM CST Thu Jan 14 2021 A cold front continues to sweep across the forecast area this evening and is roughly from New Iberia to beyond 60 nm offshore of Cameron as of 15/03Z. /issued 527 PM CST Thu Jan 14 2021/ For 01/15/2021 00Z TAF issuance Dry cold frontal boundary sliding through the region this evening. /issued 243 PM CST Thu Jan 14 2021/ Other than being a little breezy with a few high clouds streaming in ahead of the cold front it has been a mild afternoon across the area. The cold front will move quickly across the area this evening and overnight, but will remain dry across the inland zones.
/NEW/ /Through Friday Night/ A deepening low pressure system over the Midwest will help drive a reinforcing shot of cool air through North and Central Texas Friday morning. Cold air advection will likely hold Friday high temperatures in the 50s, followed by a cold Friday night with lows at or below freezing for most areas.
135 AM EST Fri Jan 15 2021 A strong cold front will cross the area today, bringing showers.
WV imagery indicates a strong closed upper low situated across the Upper Midwest.
355 AM EST Fri Jan 15 2021 Rain, and then snow showers return to the region today and continue over the weekend as a low pressure system advances into western Pennsylvania. A strong low pressure system situated in eastern Iowa will continue to slowly advances southwest today. Strong frontogenesis over the ridges of West Virginia early this afternoon has been consistent in the last few Hi-Res model runs.
Warmer air aloft associated with an upper level high pressure ridge over our area tonight will result in a temperature inversion, enhancing conditions for patchy valley fog, especially west of Boise.
Timing is unchanged with the highest winds expected from late morning through the afternoon.
1039 PM CST Thu Jan 14 2021 (This evening through Friday) Fairly strong and gusty north winds have occurred in the wake of cold frontal passage from this morning. A large upper level low will drift east across portions of the Midwest on Friday. This is where surface pressure gradient will be tightened, and where some downward momentum transport is expected as northwest winds become aligned in the lower to mid levels. Despite abundant sunshine, temperatures will be a little cooler across our area.
This feature could cause moments of lowered visibility but isn't expected to allow for much accumulation as temperatures are well above freezing for the moment. The cold front that moved through this morning is situated well off to the east allowing for a modest pressure gradient across much of Nebraska and western Iowa. Aloft the 12z upper-air analysis shows a broad upper level ridge over the western CONUS and a rather impressive 180 kt jet on its downstream flank. Generally KOMA will deal with both falling and blowing snow longer than KOFK and KLNK will due to the higher snowfall totals there, and will make for less than favorable conditions for the TAF period.
Aloft, the low level winds will be picking up overnight and especially toward daybreak for aviation concerns.
A deep upper level low is centered to the north across the MidWest. A cold front is moving across west Tennessee and northern Mississippi.
205 AM CST Fri Jan 15 2021 A cold frontal band was making progress east through north AL and southern TN early this morning. The large nearly stacked upper low over IA will drop southeast into the eastern corn belt this afternoon. Before the SC/CU field develops in response to the steepening lapse rates, sunshine should push temperatures back into the upper 40s in valleys/lower 40s atop the higher eastern plateau regions. The upper low will shift east into northeast KY and OH overnight. 5 inch atop the higher plateau locations in Franklin and northern Jackson Counties.
906 PM CST Thu Jan 14 2021 A deep upper level low is centered to the north across the MidWest. A cold front is moving across west Tennessee and northern Mississippi.
Surface observations and a recent ASCAT place a decaying ridge axis over South Florida and the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Thus, lows in the lower 60s to near 60 are right on track. High pressure across South Florida will settle across the Keys tonight. The next cold front will move off the Texas Coast and through the western and central Gulf of Mexico Friday and Friday night.
1121 PM CST Thu Jan 14 2021 For 01/15/2021 06Z TAF Issuance Cold frontal boundary has cleared all terminals at this hour with northwesterly winds around 5 to 10 kts noted. /issued 920 PM CST Thu Jan 14 2021/ A cold front continues to sweep across the forecast area this evening and is roughly from New Iberia to beyond 60 nm offshore of Cameron as of 15/03Z. /issued 243 PM CST Thu Jan 14 2021/ Other than being a little breezy with a few high clouds streaming in ahead of the cold front it has been a mild afternoon across the area. The cold front will move quickly across the area this evening and overnight, but will remain dry across the inland zones.
Cold front and lowering CIGs approaching from middle TN. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 48 31 41 30 44 / 10 10 20 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 30 36 29 39 / 70 30 40 20 0 Oak Ridge, TN 46 29 37 29 39 / 60 20 30 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 42 28 34 26 36 / 70 40 50 30 0.
A weak cold front will move through late tonight into Friday morning with rain and a shift to northerly winds.
A longwave trough aloft over the central CONUS will progress eastward across the southeastern CONUS through the period. This trough will evolve into a pronounced vertically stacked upper low and meander east across the Midwest through Friday, centering over the Great Lakes region by Friday night. At the surface, a cold front extending from the low down through the MS River Valley the will move east across the region overnight tonight and into early Friday morning. Furthermore, there is not much return flow ahead of this feature, thus precip chances will be limited across the region with the passage of this cold front. Lows Friday night are expected to be in the low to upper 30s across the region potentially being a few degrees warmer with breezy winds still present.
Upper low was centered over eastern Iowa at 07Z with bands of higher potential vorticity rotating around. On the south and west flanks of the low, deep mixing through steep lapse rates into the mid-levels has allowed for scattered showery precipitation, again much of this snow, though dewpoints remain in the teens in the much of north central and east central Kansas and anything more than trace amounts are the exception. Warmer air also pushes in aloft and brings less instability into the cloud ice layer and should slowly end the ongoing more scattered precip.
Large, deep upper low still moving slowly across the central CONUS this morning. But while precip with front moves out with nice clear slot behind it, clouds and lift associated with a vort lobe rotating around larger upper low will move into NW GA late in the afternoon. Temps should gradually increase above freezing by late Sat morning but remain below freezing at highest elevations. Light liquid- equivalent precip amounts should preclude any refreezing black ice.
Most of the snow accumulations will be confined to the higher elevations.
As the upper level low deepens and associated surface gradients tighten wind speeds will increase this morning. In the wake of the winds tonight will be cold with all areas dropping below freezing.
High pressure will briefly loose its grip on the region Saturday as a weak disturbance moves southeast across the Great Basin. Temperatures will remain well above normal while locally strong north winds continue in the lower Colorado River Valley.
719 AM EST Fri Jan 15 2021 Rain, and then snow showers return to the region today and continue over the weekend as a low pressure system advances into western Pennsylvania. A strong low pressure system situated in eastern Iowa will continue to slowly advance southeast today. Strong frontogenesis over the ridges of West Virginia early this afternoon has been consistent in the last few Hi-Res model runs.
An upper level ridge of high pressure will remain off the central California coast into the weekend. The ridge should continue to provide well above high temperatures through the weekend. Wind mixing could keep fog from forming or force the low level moisture into a low stratus cloud layer.
443 AM CST Fri Jan 15 2021 (Issued 441 AM CST Fri Jan 15 2021) Today through Saturday: Patchy drizzle and light snow showers will be possible today as moisture circulates around the meandering low pressure system to our west and a reservoir of cold air lingers aloft. Tonight, as the low slides off to our west, easterly fetch will increase off the lake allowing for better low level moisture and the lingering tail of a jet aloft will allow for upper level divergence. Light snow will linger through early Saturday morning before the low finally exits to our east and light snow subsides.
While overall we sit on the western fringe of precip chances from the low diving through Iowa and on down to the south southeast, it's effects on us will still be felt with the widespread 55+ mph wind gusts that we will almost surely have through the day.
As the recent low pressure system and upper level wave finally push farther east tonight into Saturday morning, any lingering light snow showers should gradually diminish. Soundings do suggest perhaps a very slight chance for freezing drizzle on the back side of the exiting snow showers Saturday morning as saturation shallows, but lift will also be diminishing so not currently expecting much if it does occur.
521 AM CST Fri Jan 15 2021 CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG MVFR cigs will develop by afternoon across the NW AR sites as a strong upper low slides E-SE through the midwest. A period of very light snow will also be possible with the lower cigs this afternoon. /Issued 322 AM CST Fri Jan 15 2021/ Powerful upper level low, with circulation center currently located over Iowa, will continue to drift slowly southeast today into Saturday. Overall impacts should be minimal given temperatures will likely remain above freezing during this time period.