Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The trailing portion of a weak cold front may move south into the Big Country by late morning, and a few showers and thunderstorms may develop in the vicinity of this front. /issued 410 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016/ (Today and Tonight) A weak upper low over our southwestern counties early this morning will sag to the south and will be over the eastern boundary of the Big Bend region by mid-afternoon. An upper ridge will build southeastward over the forecast from its parent upper high centered over the Four Corners area through the remainder of the day. Afternoon highs today will be in the low to mid 90s as clouds decrease. Morning lows tomorrow will be mostly in the lower 70s.
High pressure over the region will result in continued very warm and dry inland conditions through midweek. Very warm and dry conditions prevail over inland portions of the region again this afternoon as high pressure dominates much of the southwestern portion of the country.
Consensus of latest model guidance indicates the highest probability of thunderstorm development today over western and central Nebraska where the modest frontal convergence will be augmented by low-level upslope flow. We will likely see slightly cooler high temperatures on Tuesday as a continental- polar air mass filters into the area from the Great Lakes.
401 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016 A cold front will move slowly across the area today and Tuesday. High pressure will bring a period of drier weather for mid week. The clouds along and behind this line kept the temperatures a bit cooler than guidance but clearing behind the clouds in central areas should help rebound mid to late afternoon temperatures. Key point is most of the day the low-level temperature guidance is near and slightly above normal.
1254 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016 A much cooler Canadian air mass found on the back side of an upper lever low currently seen in WV imagery approaching James bay Ontario will push into the northland today. Overnight lows will generally be the 40s, with warmer values near lake superior.
A secondary cold front will push southward across the area Tuesday, with high pressure then building in its wake through Tuesday night. Temperatures look be at or below normal through much of the period, with highs generally in the lower to middle 80s and lows in the mid 60s.
Radar was showing isolated storms mainly hugging the higher terrain S and E of Tucson.
408 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016 Subtle signs of the weakening upper level ridge still holding over east Texas as convection is being steered nearly clockwise with a gap in coverage along the I-20 corridor of NE TX/NW LA where the ridge axis has held firm. Upper ridge will continue a slow retreat to the west as the front slowly works in from the N/NE, aiding in the development of additional showers and storms overnight through Tuesday before gradually diminishing through Tuesday night.
Upper ridge builds in from the west over the holiday weekend which should suppress precip chances, but allow for climbing temperatures. A weak cold front will approach the waters Tuesday and stall out near or off the coast Tuesday evening.
High pressure will move somewhat north and east of Arizona this week allowing warm temperatures to prevail, but also bring a couple of weather disturbances through the state. A small upper low centered southwest of El Centro early this afternoon continues moving westward. Stronger convection has begun to develop over the higher terrain of northern and southeastern AZ due to destabilization from surface heating. With surface dew points in the low 50s and being on the back side of the aforementioned upper low, it is not surprising that the models are not depicting an active night for the lower deserts.
339 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016 A cold front moves through the area kicking off heavy rain showers into this evening. A reinforcing cold front moves through Tuesday. Cooler for the remainder of the week. Upper level trough moving through during the short term, but behind the cold front moisture should be somewhat limited.
407 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016 Temperatures maxed out in the low to mid 90s this afternoon where rain had yet to fall. Heat indices were mostly in the low to mid 100s. dominant high pressure will finally ease up through mid week as the high retrogrades to the west in response to a deepening trough which will develop over the eastern United States. This setup in the upper levels will drive upper level disturbances between the upper high to the west and the upper level trough to the east. We will finally get relief from the heat indices which have been in the lower to mid 100s for the last several days. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A weak cold front is forecast to push across the area on Tuesday. An upper low over west Texas and deep moisture (PWAT ~ 2" at DRT) are responsible for the continued rainfall. The upper low is forecast to move westward through the day. TUTT low centered over the lower Pecos Valley has generated heavy rainfall over northern Val Verde County over the last few hours with radar estimates showing up to 6. The low is forecast to slowly weaken today as it drifts to the southwest and then dissipate over the Big Bend later tonight into early Tuesday. Subtropical Ridge centers over the Four Corners and the Arklatex regions bridge together today with subsidence taking hold over most of South Central Texas.
Overnight lows are generally expected to be in the low to mid 70s.
these storms are moving in a westward direction around the front side of the upr lvl ridge. The ridge will pull back to the w for svrl days allowing for storm chcs to INCRG tdy into tmrw.
319 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016 Mid level impulse continues to move southeast across the Northern Plains which has allowed a weak surface cold front to move southeast across the CWA. Otherwise, cooler high pressure will build south across the Northern Plains overnight and into the day Tuesday before return flow sets up to our west Tuesday evening.
Meanwhile, upper ridging stretches from the southwest CONUS into the southern Rockies. At the surface, a cold front extends from the western Great Lakes, through MN and across southern SD Areas of fog quickly developed in Saline County around 6 AM where visibilities have been as low as 1/2 mile. Higher chances for storms today will be over western Nebraska/northeast CO/NW KS where the western edge of a cold front will combine with good upslope processes. Therefore, will carry the highest pops tonight generally west of I-135. A more organized area of convection or MCS is expected to evolve across the high Plains this evening and move south-southeast across western and perhaps parts of central Kansas overnight.
Skies should then become mostly clear overnight as cooler, drier air settles into Iowa.
northeast North Dakota and Lake Superior in association with upper level trough. 00z GFS/NAM are in decent agreement in advecting 925 and 850mb moisture in association with the upper level trough today. the forecast area remains under the influence of cyclonic flow and ridge axis is west of the forecast area.
527 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016 A cold front will move through the forecast area tonight. A large area of high pressure will build over the region through the middle part of the week.
An area of showers associated with an upper level low over southeast Saskatchewan has been tracking slowly southeast this morning.
May see a small uptick in isentropic potential with low level jetting ticking up around 20 knots ahead of tomorrow's upper disturbance and associated cold front. Cooler/drier air ushers in behind the front on Tuesday night, with most spots dropping into the upper 50s around 60. Southern Ky likely stays in the low 60s.
Elsewhere, the convergence line has cleared the Lower Valley airports and nothing more than scattered VFR can be expected.
1227 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016 High pressure building in from the north is pushing rain to the south of the area this morning, while a weak cold front/wind shift drops south of I-70.
Water vapor loop also indicated an upper level ridge axis over ID/Mt border. Upper ridge will try to build today and Tue with deepening trough in the eastern Pacific. However another upper trough was over the Northwest Territories and will move across MAN on Tue. A more significant trough will rotate around southern MAN on wed night. The Wed system will send another cold front out of Canada and the next best chance for precip.
Otherwise, no other concerns as high pressure dominates the Upper Midwest. Tuesday will have less cloud cover with temperatures slightly warmer due to almost full sunshine.
1206 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016 Closed low over the Gulf of Alaska with sharpening ridge over the western CONUS as desert southwest high builds. Upper trough extending into the Great Lakes from low over northeast Canada. Highs today in the low to mid 80s Precipitation chances continue through the night mainly south. Periods of thunderstorms are possible with northwest flow aloft and several wave or trough passages. Blended slightly toward MAV/MEX guidance as it's the warmer solution. Despite continual precipitation chances and cloud cover, any sunshine combined with H85 temps of 18-20C will allow for sfc temps to reach the lower/mid 80s. Given the possible cluster/linear convective mode and the influence of the low level jet, which the NAM and GFS show H85 speeds up to 40kts, damaging winds will be just as large a threat.
Then the rest of the day should be dry/quiet due to stable air mass in place after tonight's convection and 700 mb ridging on top of that. Upper high over the four corners area will remain about stationary through the week with some strengthening through mid-week. The overall result for the forecast area will be NW-WNW flow with weak, difficult to time, short wave troughs moving over the Central High Plains.
A cold front will approach from the west tonight and into Tuesday. the cold front will continue to push closer to the region and guidance pops increase after midnight to the morning hours. Overnight lows should be in the lower to middle 70s. A weak cold front over the western Appalachians will move into the forecast area on Tuesday while a secondary cold front approaches from the west.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FROPA.
206 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016 A cold front moves through the area kicking off heavy rain showers into this evening. A reinforcing cold front moves through Tuesday. Cooler and drier remainder of week. Trailing cold front will move through the region.
The latest water vapor satellite loop continues to show the upper low over west Texas is weakening this afternoon. This trend will continue overnight as the remnants of this low drift westward.
High pressure will continue to build into the FA tonight. After cool start, warmer column, weak return flow and full solar should allow temperatures to recover close to seasonal averages.
An upper level short wave will continue to move west across the region tonight with high pressure building over S TX. Despite the mid/upper level ridge building over the area on Tuesday, isolated/scattered convection will be possible, mainly across the NE CWA where slightly deeper moisture and better convergence is progd to be located.
These storms became severe quickly as they moved southeast along low level theta-e ridge/instability axis.
316 PM PDT MON JUN 27 2016 WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION.
Models keep the upper ridge centered to the immediate west of the CWA, with west-northwesterly flow aloft. On Tuesday afternoon, will go with 10-30%s for the plains, the highest over then northeast corner. For temperatures, Tuesday's highs will be 0-2 C warmer than this afternoon's readings.
/issued 1148 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016/ Gradually weakening influence of the upper ridge continues over the region late this morning, and this trend should lend itself to more diurnal convection this afternoon and on through Tuesday with a weak frontal boundary advancing south into the area.
Unfortunately we're in the middle of such a scenario much of this week as ridging continues to build across the Rockies. Cooler air will begin to settle into the region following its passage with high temps expected to warm into the lower to middle 80s as compared to today's low 90s.
A secondary but dry cold front will move across Indiana tonight and cooler air will finally arrive by Tuesday.
615 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016 High pressure over the area will gradually move offshore this evening.
High pressure over the region will maintain dry and warm conditions.
An upper-level ridge will be dominant over the interior west this week. Due to a weak trough wrapping around the ridge, mid- level moisture will move into the area beginning Monday night, bringing a threat of rain and thunderstorms from Tuesday through the end of the week.
Through Tuesday an upper level short wave will dig south of the Great Lakes amplifying the pattern over the eastern states and pushing a cold front southward. At the surface a weak low is spinning off the Georgia coast with a weakening trough / frontal zone across north Florida. On Tuesday there will be a better chance of convection as the next cold front begins to drive south out of the Tennessee River Valley. Cold front will continue to push southward into central Georgia Tuesday night with showers and thunderstorms ahead of this boundary expected to persist across southeast Georgia for much of the overnight period.
119 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016 A weak cold front will give showers and a few thunderstorms south and east of Pittsburgh into the evening. A second front Tuesday will bring scattered showers, followed by cooler and less humid conditions through the middle of the week. Showers and storms will wane quickly tonight in the ridges as the initiating boundary and most of the low-level moisture shift southeastward.
Isolated strong storms will be possible in spots that see intersecting boundaries especially, but given the lower centroid storms risk looks low. Otherwise most spots should remain dry for the most part and temps in the low to mid 80s.
The northwest flow will yield cooler temperatures, and mixing to 875mb looks to generate highs from 65 to 70 (north of I94) to between 70 and 80(south of I94).
As we move into mid-week, the upper level flow will become more northwesterly across the central and southern plains as the upper level ridge builds over the southwest. This will allow a cold front to move through the region on Tuesday.
343 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016 Much quieter weather this afternoon than the past coupe of days as high pressure builds southward across the region. This will push a reinforcing cold front down through at least the northern 1/2 of our CWFA by 12Z Tuesday.
646 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016 A cold front will move slowly across the area today and Tuesday. High pressure will bring a period of drier weather for mid week. and the Lower Susq River Valley through early Tuesday morning. Key point is most of the day the low-level temperature guidance is near and slightly above normal.
On the backside of the high moisture and instability will return to the western high plains.
358 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016 High pressure over the area will gradually move offshore this evening.
Overnight lows will range from the low to mid 70s. Highs will be around 90 along the coast and in the lower 90s across the interior.
Another MCS is possible tomorrow as storms round the 500-hPa ridge. Have the highest pops in the NE zones, where low level winds are better.
A decaying frontal boundary extends from the offshore low and wraps around the high pressure across southwest Georgia and up to the southern Appalachians. As the upper level low supporting this system sags southward over the Atlantic ocean, the front too will gradually sag southward as it decays, bringing much drier air to our southwest Georgia counties and suppressing convection there. Temperatures will likely be slightly cooler than the past few days, though they will still be quite warm, peaking in the mid 90s.
245 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016 Cooler and drier air will push into Illinois overnight. A few clouds may spread over east central Illinois by sunrise but otherwise clear skies and slightly cooler than normal lows can be expected. 500 mb trof axis to shift to our east Tuesday morning allowing cooler and much drier air to filter across the forecast area during the day.
206 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible into early afternoon as a weak cold front pushes south through the region.
254 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016 High pressure offshore will allow a more humid air mass to move into the region on a southerly wind.
For temps, with increased cloud cover from the TSRA, a cooler day than yesterday is expected, but am still expecting above seasonal highs today (low to mid 90s). Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s expected, with high moisture levels and cloud cover limiting radiational cooling. The overall risk of severe thunderstorms appears to be limited by the lack of deep layer shear in the lowest 3 km.
307 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016 A cold front will move through the forecast area tonight. A large area of high pressure will build over the region through the middle part of the week.
223 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016 Hydro A cold front will track southward through the region today and tonight. A cooler airmass will then filter in from central Canada. As for rainfall the cold frontal passage is expected to be dry for most locations. The low level thermal trough arrives for Tuesday evening.
1125 AM MDT MON JUN 27 2016 West-northwest flow is over the northern plains as upper ridge builds over the western CONUS. Upper ridge will shift eastward over the Rockies today. Highs today will be in the lower 80s, with 70s in the Black Hills. Upper ridge axis will remain to our west into the weekend with generally W/NW flow through the nrn plains.
High pressure brought mostly clear skies, aside from some mid- level clouds across the south, and light winds. Bit more of a range in temps compared to the last few days - from the lower 80s north of highway 20 to the lower 90s along/south of highway 34 west of Galesburg, IL. Humidity will be very comfortable with dewpoints in the lower 60s. Mostly clear and cooler in the upper 50s on avg. 850mb trough and associated cold air advection drop in from the north during this period, causing 850mb temps to fall to around 10 C by early Tuesday morning. Uttech Expect dry and cooler conditions on Tuesday as high pressure builds into the region. Afternoon highs will range from the low 70s near Freeport to around 80 degrees near Keokuk.
An upper ridge of high pressure was in place over the Western US, with NW flow aloft over Colorado.
/issued 332 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016/ Another hot day across the forecast area today as the high pressure ridge centered over northern Mexico continues to build resulting in increasing heights across the region. West of the trough axis, temperatures range from 100 to 105 and deep mixing has allowed dewpoints to drop into the mid 30s and southwest to west wind is providing a bit of downslope compressional warming. East of the trough axis, temperatures are in the upper 90s to 101 with dewpoints remaining in the mid 60s. Will have to keep a close watch as the ridge will continue to build into tomorrow keeping temperatures in the 100-104 degree range across the entire forecast area. Jordan No end in sight to the upper level ridge dominating our pattern and steering jet stream well to our north.
858 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 Warmer and more humid weather returns as we head through the work week. Cold front crosses late in the week.
930 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 Cold frontal boundary located across across North Central KS at this time. Increased convergence from the low level jet will probably lead to convection along the boundary becoming more numerous after midnight. Ketcham An approaching cold front will provide a focus for deep moist convection this afternoon and evening across central KS. Convergence within the trough axis should be sufficient to overcome the convective inhibition during the afternoon/early evening hours across south central KS and pops were increased across portions of central/south central KS.
High pressure ridging remains anchored across northern Sonora with anomalously strong deep westerly flow enveloping the entire SW Conus.
741 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 Dry weather will continue tonight under departing high pressure.
The cold front that slowly moved through most of the forecast area yesterday evening into this morning is currently positioned somewhere along the Colorado-New Mexico border, which will keep the threat of critical fire weather conditions over portions of southwest Colorado through this evening. Most of the area will see cooler temperatures for the remainder of the day and less breezy winds.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 91 73 94 / 30 50 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 87 69 91 / 40 60 30 20 Oak Ridge, TN 70 86 69 91 / 40 60 30 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 85 68 89 / 30 50 40 20.
Radar-derived winds and recent model analyses also show the low-level jet is a bit stronger than it was this time last night. /ISSUED 341 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016/ An upper level ridge will continue to dominate the weather across North and Central Texas.
1037 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 A trough of low pressure will strengthen across the interior Carolinas through the week as high pressure remains southeast over the Atlantic. Tonight: Fairly quiet conditions are expected for most of the area between Atlantic high pressure centered off the Southeast coast and a trough of low pressure inland.
Upper trough axis this afternoon was centered over Wyoming into eastern Montana, while a weaker vorticity lobe was lifting northeast over western Nebraska. The cold front at 3 PM is centered from southwest KS through central NE with a warm and moist airmass in place over northeast KS. Dewpoints are generally in the lower 70s and temps in the lower 90s. Have adjusted pops accordingly to focus north of Interstate 70 through midnight where the better forcing from the passing upper trough resides.
An upper level low was located in northeast MT at 19Z. A warm front extended eastward from the low across southern MN. A ridge of high pressure was draped along the Canadian border at 19Z and has kept much of this area of the region rain free this afternoon.
651 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 The 19Z sfc analysis shows the SD low centered from Faulk through Beadle to Hutchinson Counties, with a trough extending east near the Cheyenne River and Cherry Creek. Finally starting to get some better clearing across central SD this afternoon, which will result in better mixing and increasing westerly winds behind the cold front.
Upper level low over southern Saskatchewan will continue to move slowly northeastward and away from the forecast area tonight and Tuesday. Isolated/scattered showers on the backside of the low are moving from northwest to southeast across portions of north central Montana and are expected to continue through the night. Behind this storm system, a high pressure ridge will build eastward across most of the region.
1045 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 More typical summer time weather can be expected into the weekend with scattered showers and storms each day as the Bermuda High and Piedmont trough dominate the weather. Overnight lows will be mainly in the lower to mid 70s.
A tighter pressure gradient over E TX will also result in continued mixing even as the low clouds increase after 06Z.
709 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016 High pressure will keep the area warm and dry through Tuesday. Clsd upr low over south cntrl Canada slowly drifts south and east into Thu dvlpg a pos tilt trof over the cntrl Great Lakes. Xtndd pd begins with an upr trof slowly deepening over the cntrl lakes Fri. This trof begins to creep ewrd on Sat but really just lingers thru the pd. Really cannot rule out a shwr or storm anytime as the trof supplies the instability and daytime conv lingers well into the ovrngt.