Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper-level trough will continue across Alberta today, keeping the Northern Rockies in a much cooler, wetter pattern than what weâve been experiencing. Daytime high temperatures will be about 10-15 degrees cooler than yesterday. As the trough and associated cold front move out, the polar jet stream moves overhead along with ample moisture. The higher peaks in the Missions and Bitterroots could see in the neighborhood of six inches of snow by the end of the day.
156 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2020 A cold front will push south of the area and usher in notably cooler weather today. Early this morning, a cold front has pushed south of the area into northern Pennsylvania. Meanwhile high pressure north of Lake Huron will ridge into western New York and keep the area rain-free today. It will be much cooler today, with highs in the 50s in most areas. Nearly vertically stack low over NW Manitoba slowly drifts east Monday night while swinging a cold front through the eastern Great Lakes.
321 AM PDT Sun Oct 11 2020 High pressure builds over the area, which will lead to a warming and drying trend for the week.
513 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2020 Conditions will trend cooler and wetter into the early part of the upcoming week, as the remnants of once powerful Hurricane Delta moves north into PA later today through Monday.
Associated strong cold front will move across eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa later this afternoon and night. Air mass is expected to become unstable in the afternoon as low level moisture advects northward ahead of the cold front. Very strong 0-6km bulk shear between 40 to 75 kts along and behind the cold front is expected. Strong northwest winds will also be behind the cold front. Fire danger will also be high to very high on Monday with much of the area having relative humidities in the lower 30s. Temperatures will be in the lower 70s.
High pressure will keep skies mainly clear through this period. A mid-level ridge over Texas will move slowly to the southeast today and tonight. The upper ridge will continue subsident flow today and we will have another hot day. Tonight a cold front will drop down through North Texas reaching our northern border by early Monday morning. High temperatures Monday will be around 10 degrees cooler than Sunday.
The cold front associated with the trough moving through the intermountain west currently sits along the I-80 corridor from northern Utah through southwest Wyoming. An area of high pressure off the SoCal coast will help maintain northwest flow over the CWA. The tight pressure gradient in the northern Rockies, between the SoCal high and a strong area of low pressure over Canada, will maintain strong winds aloft in this northwest flow regime. There is a chance that, with a shift in the upper level jet axis, cooler air will be able to seep back into the CWA, leading to temperatures closer to normal by the latter half of the week.
Winds may let up in some places this evening before increasing late tonight with the arrival of a cold front. The latest guidance continues to show the next cold front moving through the area late tonight and clearing the vast majority of the area by sunrise Monday. Temperatures were nudged down from NBM guidance given drier and cooler air expected behind the front.
629 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020 Water vapor showing a strongly dynamic trough/pv-anomaly moving through the Northern Rockies early this morning. This will aid in deepening low pressure over southern Canada with a strong surface cold front extending southward into the Dakotas by this afternoon. Ahead of this deepening low/cold front, strengthening east/southeast winds will draw in lower level moisture/increasing stratus cloud through this morning. As a result, could see quite a temperature spread across the area today with highs in the lower 60s across north central WI, and 70-75 southwest of I-94. The cold front continues to push eastward into western MN early this evening with an increasing band of showers and storms along it. Temperatures return to near normal with highs generally in the low to mid 60s.
432 AM MDT Sun Oct 11 2020 An upper trough is crossing the western CONUS, with the main axis across the northern to central Rockies. A strong cold front is quickly crossing eastern MT and SW North Dakota, on the verge of pushing into Harding County, SD and Campbell County, WY. The highest QPF will be across northeast WY, up to 0.
Weak upper ridging has developed over the upper Mississippi Valley downstream of a rather impressive upper trough with some convection noted in Washington and Idaho.
Winds will begin to become northerly late tonight as a cold front moves into the area. /issued 340 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020/ Today will start with an upper ridge extending from Mexico up across TX with a cut off low over Baja. Also a strong upper trough moving down out of the NW will cross the Nrn Rockies today moving onto the plains tonight. The trough over the Eastern US will remain the rest of the week as the ridge reestablishes itself over the West.
Otherwise VFR conditions are expected across the area today as a mid-level ridge pushes through the area. The short term starts out hot as a mid-level ridge pushes east through the area and southeasterly flow ushers in warmer air. Fortunately, max temperatures on Monday will be lower as a weak cold front enters the area. Residual moisture in the low levels along with dry and clear conditions will yield the chance for patchy fog to develop again tonight in areas between Alice and Victoria.
Lingering valley rain and mountain snow showers will taper off over eastern Nevada this morning, and afternoon highs will be cooler. The trough axis, i. cold front, is moving east over Elko County at this time, passing through Elko about 1 am PDT. The trough axis will exit the state this morning. Jet support associated with this trough is clocking 160kts over Washington State with a 125kt nose of the jet clipping northern Nevada, moving east. The trough will move out and showers will end abruptly by noon. However it may not be so noticeable since the LKN CWFA will be subjected to a northwest, cooler, flow of air post-frontal.
/issued 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020/ SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): 500mb ridge remains over South Texas and the Western Gulf of Mexico through Monday providing large scale subsidence and maintaining above normal temperatures. The warm ridge and sharp boundary layer moisture discontinuity is producing a sharp surface inversion resulting in patchy low clouds and some light fog across the Lower Valley overnight.
/issued 430 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020/ Mild and humid conditions will prevail across the Midsouth prior to Monday afternoon/evening Pacific cold frontal passage. The late Monday Pacific cold front will return 40s/50s dewpoints to the Midsouth, allowing temps to cool efficiently with light winds Monday night.
635 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020 A cold front will move through the region today from west to east. An upper trough that digs into the plains behind the sfc front will provide some additional energy and lift for a few additional showers mainly east of the James Valley before drier air pushes in at the mid levels this evening and cuts off any precip. Dry and cooler conditions are anticipated for Monday with highs mainly in the 60s.
715 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2020 Conditions will trend cooler and wetter into the early part of the upcoming week, as the remnants of once powerful Hurricane Delta moves north into PA later today through Monday.
The short term starts out hot as a mid-level ridge pushes east through the area and southeasterly flow ushers in warmer air. Fortunately, max temperatures on Monday will be lower as a weak cold front enters the area. Residual moisture in the low levels along with dry and clear conditions will yield the chance for patchy fog to develop again tonight in areas between Alice and Victoria.
With the SW wind flow, warmer temperatures will occur, especially along the coast today, before increasing clouds and showers this afternoon will provide some relief. Max Temperatures will generally be in the low 90s, expect along the far interior where temperatures will be in the upper 80s.
This week, high pressure will bring us more dry weather along with warming temperatures and light winds. But first, we will see slightly cooler temperatures and northerly breezes today as a weak cold front passes across the area.
322 AM MDT Sun Oct 11 2020 An upper trough is crossing the western CONUS, with the main axis across the northern to central Rockies. A strong cold front is quickly crossing eastern MT and SW North Dakota, on the verge of pushing into Harding County, SD and Campbell County, WY. The highest QPF will be across northeast WY, up to 0.
A trough will swing by to our north today bringing another round of increased west to southwest winds in the afternoon. Areas along the high terrain will see gusts 25 to 30 mph with stronger gusts possible near the Four Corners region.
430 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020 Mild and humid conditions will prevail across the Midsouth prior to Monday afternoon/evening Pacific cold frontal passage. The late Monday Pacific cold front will return 40s/50s dewpoints to the Midsouth, allowing temps to cool efficiently with light winds Monday night.
627 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020 (Today and tonight) South winds will increase quickly this morning as pressure falls occur across the high Plains. As the upper trough makes its way east across the northern and central Plains tonight, a strong cold front will drop south through the area. Strong, gusty north winds will accompany the front along with a drier, cooler airmass.
06Z surface data has high pressure over the Great Lakes. Easterly winds will keep temperatures slightly cooler than yesterday with the most cooling in the highway 20 corridor. Starting around midnight and then continuing into Monday morning the next cold front will sweep through the area. Regardless, gusty winds, potentially up to 45 mph, will be possible with the stronger storms and then in the first hour or two behind the cold front. As the cold front reaches the Mississippi river and moves into Illinois thunderstorms will slowly dissipate but wind gusts up to 40 mph will still be possible. Much cooler temperatures will be seen the second half of the week as a pattern change aloft brings cooler air down from Canada.
935 AM MDT Sun Oct 11 2020 Current surface analysis shows cold front now moving across western SD. An upper trough is crossing the western CONUS, with the main axis across the northern to central Rockies. A strong cold front is quickly crossing eastern MT and SW North Dakota, on the verge of pushing into Harding County, SD and Campbell County, WY. The highest QPF will be across northeast WY, up to 0.
A northerly wind shift will be possible at COT and VCT ahead of a weak cold front late in the TAF period, but confidence was not high enough to include with this issuance.
A cold front will move through the area late Monday afternoon into Monday evening, offering another chance of precipitation. On Monday night, a quick moving cold front will be progressing through the Ohio Valley from west to east along with a band of showers. Behind the front, winds quickly shift to northwesterly as cooler, drier air moves in from the west.
152 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020 The next cold front is currently pushing into NE and northeastern CO, and will sweep through eastern OK 08-12Z and through western AR by 15Z.
353 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020 A closed upper low in northern Canada and its associated long wave trofs will affect the forecast area tonight through Monday night. The first trof and its co-located cold front will move through northeast Minnesota tonight, and through the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin Monday. The showers will end by Monday afternoon over the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin as high pressure begins to build across the Northland. Monday night finds the next upper trof moving into northeast Minnesota with the next cold front. Showers will develop overnight as the best forcing from the upper trof arrives.
242 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020 As of 2 pm, high pressure was over eastern Ontario with a broad ridge extending back to the southwest into eastern Iowa. A warm front was starting to move into the southern CWA as a cold front in central SD and central NE was moving east towards SW MN and Western Iowa. It now appears that the cold front and rain chances may hold off getting into the west central and NW portions of our CWA until after 6Z and possibly not until after 8Z.
With the best forcing remaining over Montana, any snowfall amounts should remain rather light with the higher amounts confined with the higher elevations where impacts would be minimal.
The remnant low pressure system associated with Delta will continue to lift across the Tennessee Valley and Appalachian Mountains today. Lows tonight will trend slightly cooler in the lower to mid 60s over inland areas and in the upper 60s to lower 70s near the coast. A warming trend is expected on Monday with ridging aloft, and highs should range from 85 to 90 degrees, with the exception of 80 to 85 degrees at the beaches.
After a brief period of near normal temperatures, high pressure will push temperatures back to well above average by the middle of the week. This drop is being caused by an upper-level closed low to our southwest over the Gulf of California. Ridging then begins to build in from the west starting Monday, pushing the upper low farther to the southwest bringing increasing thicknesses over our area.
A cold front is expected to move through Monday morning, bringing LLWS and northerly winds to the area. High pressure was moving into Arkansas from the northwest. The front will (obviously) offer a reinforcing shot of cooler air.
254 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020 A strong cold front will blast southeast across the region this evening and tonight, with very strong/gusty northwest winds in its wake.
1248 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020 Weak upper ridging has developed over the upper Mississippi Valley downstream of a rather impressive upper trough with some convection noted in Washington and Idaho.
250 PM MDT Sun Oct 11 2020 Current surface analysis shows cold front is now east of the forecast area, with gusty northwesterly winds across much of the area, strongest generally over northwest SD into the west central SD plains. Temps last hour ranged from the upper 30s and 40s over northeast WY and the Black Hills to the lower 70s over south central SD.
The upper trough will continue to move east of the region as northwest flow aloft brings an upper disturbance into the PacNW.
A subtle disturbance will make its way across the region tonight into Monday morning causing widespread precipitation with the higher terrain receiving a decent amount of snow by Monday morning. Some of the highest peaks through the Northern Rockies, especially the Mission mountains, could receive up to a foot of new snow.
Only a slight chance of light showers is expected today with breezy westerly to southwesterly winds as the cold front attached to what's left of post-tropical cyclone Delta pushes further off to the east. While the cold front from Delta won't do much in the way of high temperatures, low temperatures tonight will be a few degrees cooler in the upper 60s to near 70 due to the slightly drier conditions.
Light shallow showers are ongoing across the TN Valley and will gradually clear from west to east this afternoon as the low slowly pushes to the northeast. Highs on Mon will be unseasonably warm, rising into the low to possibly mid 80s. A zonal upper flow over the NE Pacific basin will help move troughing over the United States/Canadian Rockies region to the east. A cold front currently across the northern Rockies associated with this trough will be heading eastward.
1249 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020 (Today and tonight) South winds will increase quickly this morning as pressure falls occur across the high Plains. As the upper trough makes its way east across the northern and central Plains tonight, a strong cold front will drop south through the area. Strong, gusty north winds will accompany the front along with a drier, cooler airmass.
321 AM MDT Thu Apr 30 2020 WV/IR satellite imagery showed a upper level trough axis east of the MS River Valley, and a upper level ridge axis from the Four Corners to central MT. The ridge to the west shifts east into the High Plains, with the 700mb thermal ridge over southeast WY and western NE Panhandle. A Pacific cold front moves into southeast WY Friday afternoon. Temperatures will be slightly cooler, but still above normal.
521 AM MDT Thu Apr 30 2020 WV/IR satellite imagery showed a upper level trough axis east of the MS River Valley, and a upper level ridge axis from the Four Corners to central MT. The ridge to the west shifts east into the High Plains, with the 700mb thermal ridge over southeast WY and western NE Panhandle. A Pacific cold front moves into southeast WY Friday afternoon. Temperatures will be slightly cooler, but still above normal.
As cold front pushes through the region, rain chances and cloud cover will gradually decrease, especially near to north of Orlando this afternoon. Should enough clearing occur across north central Florida, temperatures should be able to warm into the low 80s with breezy westerly winds developing. NW flow will advect cooler/drier air across the area with min temps falling into the mid and upper 50s by Fri morning.
421 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020 Aside from critical fire weather conditions in our western counties today (see fire weather section), the weather will be pretty quiet/dry with warmer temperatures and less wind than the past couple of days. An upper ridge axis will build onto the Central Plains. Have not deviated much from model ensembles for temps, but of interest is that MOS guidance has trended cooler for Friday highs (roughly five degrees cooler than current forecast) as the upper ridge breaks down.
WV imagery indicates amplified ridging aloft transitioning slowly eastward across the Central and Southern Rockies. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is strengthening in eastern Colorado. Mainly quiet weather conditions for the short term forecast under the influence of upper level ridging stretching across the Rockies and high plains. Winds will turn more southerly by mid morning as a leeside trough develops and deepens over eastern Colorado due to diurnal trends. High temperatures will be much warmer due to the return of southerly flow seeing mainly 80s across the CWA and pushing near 90 near the Oklahoma state line towards Elkhart seeing more of the downsloping influence.
451 AM MDT Thu Apr 30 2020 Overview: An upper level ridge over the Rockies will progress eastward into the Central Plains. Today-Tonight: With a pronounced ridge aloft, expect temperatures far (+15 to +20F) above average. The aforementioned convection may propagate downstream into portions of the High Plains (north of I-70) Friday night -- though poor diurnal timing and the presence of a very dry low-to- mid level airmass suggest that convection will likely weaken with time/eastern extent.
A mid level ridge will continue to build in overhead during the TAF period leading to VFR conditions and CLR skies. The highest winds will be across the NW AR TAF sites during the afternoon hours today. Breezy southerly winds and notably warmer temps return Friday with above normal temperatures likely prevailing through the weekend.
625 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2020 Strong low pressure system continues to progress through the area today.
The strong ridge that brought record breaking heat to much of the area continues to shift east today.
/NEW/ /Today and Tonight/ High pressure and large scale subsidence will continue as the area resides on the backside of a deep and narrow upper trough over the Eastern CONUS. The winds will increase and become southerly late this afternoon into the evening as the upstream upper ridge flattens and leeside cyclogenesis ensues.
VFR with clear skies as big dome of high pressure resides over the region. The high moves along the coast tonight with light northeast winds today turning east to southeast tonight. /issued 304 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): 500mb ridge axis over New Mexico shifts over the state Friday.
Upper ridge axis extended from southeast Arizona northeastward into the northern CONUS Plains early this morning. Meanwhile, a low amplitude upper trough was west of the Pacific Northwest coast. The upper ridge axis will move eastward into the central/southern Rockies later today allowing for gradually increasing cirriform clouds to spread across the area from the west.
638 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020 As the ridge continues to build over the area, subsidence will keep cloud coverage to a minimum throughout the day. On the leading edge of the WAA, some of the higher resolution guidance is suggesting we could see some scattered rain showers into Friday morning. Light rain showers remain possible into late Friday morning, shifting the focus towards the Buffalo Ridge in SW MN.
An upper level low was present over the Great Lakes region with upper ridging over the western CONUS early this morning. At the surface, high pressure was centered over western Nebraska and Kansas, keeping skies clear and weakening the winds across the CWA. With the ridge moving into the Plains through the day today, skies should remain mostly clear allowing temperatures to climb into the mid 70s. Southerly winds continue overnight tonight with temperatures falling into the low to mid 50s. The pressure gradient tightens across the area Friday morning as two areas of low pressure develop on the lee of the Rockies.
The current forecast is on track for the afternoon hours featuring relatively deep moisture, up to around 700 mb contained within the eastern states upper trough. Perhaps more widespread coverage of showers will develop tonight across northern areas as the next vort lobe pinwheels through the base of the upper trough. Expect showers to begin to dwindle after 00z but left PROB30 in for -SHRA at both KTYS and KTRI until 03z and 05z respectively to account for upper trough passage occurring around midnight.
330 AM PDT Thu Apr 30 2020 Warm weather will continue this week, though high temperatures will gradually trend cooler through the weekend, reaching near normal levels.
408 AM MDT Thu Apr 30 2020 The ridge axis will shift eastward with southwest flow increasing as a broad trough moves into the Pacific Northwest today.
320 AM MDT Thu Apr 30 2020 Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins this morning with a ridge stretching from Arizona to Wyoming through eastern montana and cresting in central Saskatchewan. Farther west a large trough sets off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. Today through Friday: Conditions will start off dry but as the ridge axis exits into the Dakotas around Noon southwest flow will filter in allowing convective showers to form over the central Montana mountains.
Friday should be dry and milder for most locations, but could not rule out isolated showers near and at the coast late in the afternoon as a warm front lifts north of the area.
950 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020 HiRes data still showing instability showers developing later today across parts of our north, and especially along Plateau as deep upper trough across the region moves slowly east.
940 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020 Expect a nice day on tap for the Mid-South today with clear skies and highs in the lower 70s to upper 60s. High pressure is currently centered over the central Plains. As the high moves slowly east today, clouds should begin to exit the region leaving mostly sunny skies for the region. Temperatures will be cooler than yesterday with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Tonight will see more dry weather as high pressure axis moves toward the Mississippi Valley. By Friday, winds will become more southerly allowing warmer air to move into the region. Temperatures will be warmer on Friday with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Onshore winds set to return by Fri as high pressure slides east of the state. This along with the upper ridge building in from the west will lead to warmer daytime temperatures on Fri.