Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
ALONG WITH CONTINUED COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S.
RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SO QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE LOWER VALLEYS AND RIDGE TOPS/MID-LEVEL MOUNTAINS. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 42 65 50 66 / 0 0 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 37 62 44 65 / 0 0 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 37 63 44 64 / 0 0 0 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 35 62 39 64 / 0 0 0 10.
643 PM EST WED NOV 25 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /ISSUED 359 PM EST WED NOV 25 2015/ STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA, IS KEEP A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
449 PM MST WED NOV 25 2015 UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER WEST CENTRAL NEVADA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO UTAH OVERNIGHT REMAINING STATIONARY TOMORROW. GENERAL EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP GENERALLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WORKS WITH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR FOR ALL BUT THE HILL CITY AREA. FREEZING RAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOW 20S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO.
FOR THIS UPDATE WILL SLOW DOWN THE DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND MAINTAIN AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IN THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS AND INCOMING UPPER TROUGH. SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WITH AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AND THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE FIRST VERY LIGHT IF ANYTHING ACROSS THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. AND THE SECOND A BAND OF LIGHT TO POSSIBLY EMBEDDED MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST INTO THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED S/WV WHICH EJECTED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW LAST NIGHT. COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SPREAD WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING.
RECORD SETTING HIGH PRESSURE WITH REGRRDS TO STRENGTH PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MARITIMES WL KEEP STRONG GRADIENT ONSHORE CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
912 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015 Latest surface analysis indicates the cold front was located across central Iowa, across central Kansas, and into the northern Texas Panhandle.
/ISSUED 238 PM EST WED NOV 25 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH ITS AXIS NOSING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE RIDGE CENTER IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE BUT ITS AXIS REMAINS CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST.
408 PM MST WED NOV 25 2015 AREAS OF FREEZING FOG AND DRIZZLE HAVE BECOME QUITE PREVALENT IN THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS INCLUDING I-80 BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND LARAMIE. THINK THESE AREAS WILL BEGIN TO ICE ACCUMULATION ON VARIOUS SURFACES SOON SO STARTED THE HIGHLIGHTS NOW FOR THESE THREE ZONES.
1010 PM EST WED NOV 25 2015 WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE EAST COAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
/ISSUED 248 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015/ THE FORECAST AREA IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEAST U. COAST RIDGING DOWN INTO THE REGION. AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS.
637 PM EST WED NOV 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED IN NORTHWEST NEVADA IS BRINGING WRAPAROUND MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. HOWEVER IT'S ONLY EXPECTED TO HAVE AN IMPACT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS UNDER STRONG RETURN FLOW THIS EVENING WITH WARMER, MOISTER AIR BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM COMES TOGETHER OUT WEST.
/issued 338 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015/ (Tonight and Thursday) A prominent trough continues to dig over the western CONUS this afternoon, setting the stage for a wet Thanksgiving weekend. Downstream of this trough, the flow aloft is becoming more southwesterly over time, with a strong subtropical jet intensifying across the region.
937 PM EST WED NOV 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY.
WHICH WILL HELP LOWS TO BE QUITE A BIT WARMER TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUSLY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 50S IN THE E TO MID/UPPER 50S IN THE W. A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REALLY WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION AND MAKE FOR A VERY PLEASANT START TO A LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR MANY FOLKS. THANKS TO INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW THESE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 10 TO 12 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
648 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015 INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SATURATE THE LOWER ONE TO TWO THOUSAND FEET OVER THE COMING HOURS. UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS LATER IN THE DAY. /ISSUED 230 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015/ PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE SIERRA MOUNTAIN REGION WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SWD INTO THE SRN GREAT BASIN WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
638 PM EST WED NOV 25 2015 WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE EAST COAST.
803 PM EST WED NOV 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OVER NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT.
534 PM MST WED NOV 25 2015 AREAS OF FREEZING FOG AND DRIZZLE HAVE BECOME QUITE PREVALENT IN THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS INCLUDING I-80 BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND LARAMIE. THINK THESE AREAS WILL BEGIN TO ICE ACCUMULATION ON VARIOUS SURFACES SOON SO STARTED THE HIGHLIGHTS NOW FOR THESE THREE ZONES.
/ISSUED 252 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MAINE COAST IS EXERTING ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO HAS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. AN UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR RENO NEVADA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER NEVADA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A FEW S/WVS EJECTING THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM TIME TO TIME.
550 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015 High pressure is sliding off to the east coast this afternoon, and another system is developing over the Plains.
340 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND OUR NEXT UPPER STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY WITH LOW END CAPE AND SCATTERED RAIN AHEAD IT.
122 AM EDT SUN NOV 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING.
WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT AND BRING LIGHT WINDS AT 4-7 MPH AND CLEAR SKIES. LIKELY WILL HAVE A FEW PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP UNDER THE RIDGE. BEYOND MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
141 AM EDT SUN NOV 1 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. STAYING IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
1121 PM MDT SAT OCT 31 2015 TEMPORARY RIDGING OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LEE TROFFING ACROSS THE PLAINS. ENHANCED WESTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES. AND WARMER MIN TEMPS FOR THESE AREAS. AND COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS AGAIN TONIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS EVEN WARMER THAN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER IN THE AFTERNOON.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHTS SHOWS CLOSED LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AT THIS TIME WITH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT TO THE E WHILE DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS LOW. THIS BAND IS MOVING FROM SW TO NE AND WILL BE IMPACTING THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN THE NEXT 2 HRS. AS THIS LOW PROGRESS EASTWARD TODAY. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 80S. RIDGE BUILDS AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE AREA LIFTING NE TOWARDS NORTHERN GULF.
1227 AM CDT SUN NOV 1 2015 Showers and lingering drizzle exited the region this afternoon as the upper level trough driving the activity swept east through the Plains States. As the trough continues east clouds will clear overnight allowing for decent amount of cooling, though we're still only talking about lows in the 40s. Stepping back to look at the big picture, as the trough moves through the Plains into the eastern CONUS the flow will flatten out and then amplify across the Central Plains over the next several days.
LIGHT RAIN CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE REGION. COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE. MODEL CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THIS TIME PERIOD FOR A LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AS A LARGE TROUGH CARVES OUT OVER THE WEST.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE TO QUEBEC CANADA BY LATER TODAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EWD ACROSS SRN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SUNNY SKIES AND 925 MB TEMPS ABOVE 10C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S.
CIRRUS MOVING THROUGH THE LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL PUSH EAST OF COLORADO THIS EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. A TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST DEEPENS SUNDAY NIGHT CAUSING FLOW TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ESTABLISHING AN ADVECTION OF WARMER AIR WHICH WILL MODERATE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. A STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON MON BEFORE IT ELONGATES (GFS) OR SPLITS (ECMWF). THE GFS HAS KEPT THIS DISTURBANCE MORE OF OPEN TROUGH. BOTH MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH/SOUTHERN LOW THEN PASSING OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON THU.
1228 AM EDT SUN NOV 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AS A SHORT WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE LOW AND UPPER SUPPORT. CHANCES SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW AND SHORT WAVE BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE EAST. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN WITH SOME HEIGHT RISES ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT RAIN CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE REGION. COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING. STRONG SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REGION WITH VALLEY FOG FORMING IN THE SOUTHERN TIER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND CAUSE AN ANOMALOUS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES.
Rain moved out of the area earlier today, with a cold front in it's wake, and some low clouds that continue to clear the area as drier air moves from the north. The axis of the upper level trough that helped bring all the rain to the area the last couple days is west of the area roughly along a line from Amarillo to Carlsbad, NM and southwest into northern Mexico. High clouds continue to stream over the area along the eastern side of this trough. Until the trough axis makes its way into our CWA later tonight, these clouds will continue over the area.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL NEEDING TO MOVE ACROSS EARLY SUNDAY AND CHECKING CLIMATOLOGY. AS BULK OF COLD CORE WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OVER THE LA/TX BORDER BY MID AFTERNOON. /ISSUED 943 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015/ THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION THIS EVENING AND IS PROGGED TO REMAIN WRAPPED UP AS IT TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD END SUNDAY EVENING ONCE THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND EXITS TO THE EAST.
154 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015 EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO CLOSED UPPER LOWS. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH IS IN PLACE ALONG FRONT RANGE WITH WESTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA.
146 AM EDT SUN NOV 1 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN MONDAY LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF MAIN 700MB TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THIS TROUGH APPROACHING AND SFC ANTICYCLONE DEPARTING EWD THRU THE GULF OF MAINE. ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EVEN AS MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND LOW-LEVEL WAA MOVES EAST OF OUR REGION SUNDAY AFTN.
402 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. NO COLD ADVECTION TO SPEAK OF AND WITH THE SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST BREEZE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S EXCEPT SOME UPPER 50S INLAND NORTHWEST PA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 40S. WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT STRETCHES OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND A STRONG SHORT WAVES SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
129 AM EDT SUN NOV 1 2015 SFC AND LOW LEVEL E/SE FLOW WILL DOMINATE AS HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS AREA. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR A BRIEF BKN CEILING AS WELL AS A COUPLE OF SHOWERS, BUT ALL IN ALL A DRY FORECAST WITH PREVAILING VFR.
300 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN MONDAY LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF MAIN 700MB TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THIS TROUGH APPROACHING AND SFC ANTICYCLONE DEPARTING EWD THRU THE GULF OF MAINE. ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EVEN AS MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND LOW-LEVEL WAA MOVES EAST OF OUR REGION SUNDAY AFTN.
MODELS DO INDICATE A BIT OF A GRADIENT DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF SO WE COULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENTS IN VISIBILITIES AFTER SUNRISE THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT IN THIS. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING. CLEARING EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 70S AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION.
/ISSUED 938 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015/ LINGERING SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF SE TEXAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WHILE CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS. FORECAST WILL LEAVE SOME LOW END RAIN CHANCES JUST IN CASE OF A FEW SHOWERS THAT MAY DEVELOP WITH THE UPPER LOW. EXPECT A DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE S ROCKIES. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE DIFFERENT WITH TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE S ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF MAN. SOME DRYING WAS OCCURRING AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER IA/SOUTHERN MN AND SLIGHT DRYING ON THE WEST SIDE OF TROUGH OR OVER EASTERN ND. ALSO THE UPPER JET WAS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AT BIS AND ABR INDICATED COOLER AIR MOVED IN ALOFT TO AROUND THE 750 TO 800 HPA LEVEL. MAKING THE LOWER LAYER ADIABATIC TO THIS LEVEL WITH 40 TO 45 KNOTS POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN. WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY.
137 AM EDT SUN NOV 1 2015 AN AREA OF RAIN ACCOMPANYING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
BUT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THEN AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THAT DEPENDS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW SO THE POPS IN THIS FORECAST WILL NOT REFLECT THE DRY SLOT THIS FAR AHEAD.
LOOK FOR CIGS TO REMAIN IFR AREAWIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE CONVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW THAT WILL DRIFT E INTO CNTRL TX. THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL ONLY PRODUCE LGT RAIN AS UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL TX APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT AND PROVIDES LIFT ABOVE THE LOW LVL INVERSION.
342 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. NO COLD ADVECTION TO SPEAK OF AND WITH THE SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST BREEZE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S EXCEPT SOME UPPER 50S INLAND NORTHWEST PA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 40S. WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT STRETCHES OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND A STRONG SHORT WAVES SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
expect clearing skies and warmer temperatures this afternoon. Could have a few showers/isolated thunderstorms across far southeast OK as the upper low ejects out of TX.
CONTINUED FAIR AND SEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
136 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE PLAINS AND TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE ARE STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF THE INCOMING TROUGH.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO MEXICO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AT THE BASE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO RETURN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MEXICO/WEST TEXAS MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
210 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 Dry conditions are expected today as weak high pressure prevails. As an upper level low pivots northeast from the southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley, a second chance of rain will spread into far southeast portions of the region tonight and Monday morning.
STLT SHOWS THE COOLER CLOUD TOPS WELL SOUTH OF THE TN VALLEY. 8H WINDS ARND 50 KTS ALONG WITH A WARM FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
This afternoon a closed upper low was located across central TX, embedded within the southern branch of the upper jet. The upper trough that moved east across the northern and central plains last night has moved into the upper Midwest this afternoon. The upper low embedded within the southern branch of the upper jet will slowly move east across the gulf coast states through Sunday afternoon. Tonight will be clear with lows in the lower 40s. Expect sunny skies with highs in the lower to mid 70s. On Monday southwest flow aloft becomes well established as the longwave trough deepens over the southwest US. This will keep the warmer temperatures across the region with highs in the mid to upper 70s and possibly some locations reaching the lower 80s on Monday.
212 AM MST SUN NOV 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND RESULTING CLEAR SKIES AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
336 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 A DEEP LAYERED MEAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FORCE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL LIE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TODAY-MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AS AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIB/FL STRAITS MID WEEK. THE SURFACE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BE ALIGNED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEEK'S END.
355 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN/AROUND THE DEL RIO AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IS HELPING TO GENERATE AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. BASED ON THE RADAR TREND ALONG WITH THE LOW'S POSITION AND SLOW FORECAST MOVEMENT TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY.
358 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND CROSS OUR AREA MONDAY.
THE CENTER OF A DEEP AND WARM MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS ANCHORED JUST WEST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY AS OF 300 AM OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND LAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS DETAIL A WEAK STATIONARY/WARM FRONT PLACED FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA TO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. WHERE WEAK LOW PRESSURE EXISTS. BUT STRONG SUBSIDENT TENDENCIES EXIST OWING TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE.
253 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND CROSS OUR AREA MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS OUR REGION AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST U. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK BRINGING DRY AND MILD WEATHER.
331 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD TO OFF THE COAST OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON STATE. DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING EXTENDED FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. A LOW AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER TEXAS WITH A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA SWD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SWRN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SWD INTO EASTERN MONTANA. WITH READINGS IN THE 70S AND FORECAST DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH RIDGING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.