Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Winds have really picked up over the last few hours with gusts of 60-80 mph in the high Sierra and gusts up to 30 mph here at the office, just in time for the balloon launch.
Models continue to note a piece of energy sweeping across southern WY late this afternoon and evening, bringing accumulations up to an inch across Sweetwater County and the lower elevations of Lincoln County. The northwest flow will continue to moderate temperatures, with most lower elevations reaching the lower 30s! Northwest flow will continue to be the dominant flow through the period.
354 AM MST Mon Feb 15 2021 Deep trough remains centered over much of the central United States this morning. High temperatures are expected to finally push above freezing for a large portion of the area, with teens likely across portions of NE WY and the Black Hills. Cyclonic flow will continue through mid-week as a deep trough remains centered across the central US.
513 AM CST Mon Feb 15 2021 (Today and tonight) The upper trough continues to move east across Texas and the southern Plains, and the associated snow has ended in our eastern and southeastern counties. The surface pressure ridge axis will gradually shift east of our area tonight.
A southerly breezy should warm 925 mb temps some today with highs slightly warmer than yesterday.
Question is how much of the precip will linger as subfreezing temps push into NW counties this evening. Chc for strong/severe over the far SE is contingent on sfc-based buoyant parcels which is in doubt unless warm front lifts north. Could see a storm move north of warm front and produce small hail further north than expected.
As temperatures moderate in Idaho with the incoming warmer air, snow levels may rise above the Camas Prairie, but there is some question on how much warming will be realized at lower elevations.
As this area of 1000-900mb frontogenesis shifts westward, the upper level trough associated with the system impacting the states to our south today will swing through bringing some upper level support of speed divergence with the upper level jet and 500mb positive vorticity advection.
There is a cirrus plume over the southeast third or so of the area (south central Kansas counties) where 1-2 am temperatures were in the low negative single digits. NAM apparent temp fields continue to produce the warning criterion over the lower plains though mid morning (9-10 am).
210 AM MST Mon Feb 15 2021 Deep trough remains centered over much of the central United States this morning. High temperatures are expected to finally push above freezing for a large portion of the area, with teens likely across portions of NE WY and the Black Hills. Cyclonic flow will continue through mid-week as a deep trough remains centered across the central US.
305 AM CST Mon Feb 15 2021 A mid/upper trough across the Southern Plains is progged to lift east and northeast towards the area early this morning. We continue to sit under the H85 thermal trough within an arctic airmass that spans across the central CONUS. Arctic high pressure will remain wedged in across eastern Kansas tonight and with a few breaks in the clouds we are expecting a continuation of record setting cold with lows in the ten to 15 below range for most areas. Accumulating snow appears likely once again although the highest probabilities are expected to remain just south of the area.
330 AM PST Mon Feb 15 2021 A cold front will move southward across the district this Presidents Day with light precipitation expected, mainly over the mountains, through this evening.
Can't rule out slightly warmer temperatures if clouds or winds stay in place longer than expected, but otherwise lows should easily drop into the -10s or even -20s.
Cigs continue to improve on the backside of the upper trough moving through Texas, w/all terminals at MVFR/VFR. Another upper trough will begin to affect the area during the day Tuesday bringing another shot at precipitation and strong winds to the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. Precipitation will begin to develop across portions of the area Tuesday afternoon as lift increases ahead of the trough. Temperatures will rise above freezing for most Tuesday with the eastern Permian Basin likely remaining near or below 32 degrees. With temperatures so close to freezing, precipitation type will be hard to pin down.
Additional snowfall accumulations today (after 12z) will range from less than inch along and west of Interstate 49, to 1 to 2 inches along the highway 65 corridor and 3 to 5 inches over the eastern Ozarks, mainly west of highway 63. By Tuesday night through yet another system takes aim at the region as a trough deepens over New Mexico.
446 AM MST Mon Feb 15 2021 Upper trough axis extended from north of Lake Superior through the central and southern Plains. Tonight/s lows will lower to the single digits below zero over western NE, with wind chills as low as -25 from Chadron through Alliance and Sidney where a Wind Chill Advisory is in effect from 5 PM this afternoon through 8 AM MST Tuesday The next upper trough to produce more mountain snow arrives by this evening, and deepens over the central CONUS Tuesday. Next shift can re- evaluate the high wind potential with 12Z models.
likely over 6 inches for the higher elevations. maybe a wee bit warmer but it'll be tough with all the clouds around. The lack of subsidence in the trough's wake under continued unsettled northwesterly flow will keep showers going in the northern mountains through Tuesday night.
(Today and tonight) The upper trough continues to move east across Texas and the southern Plains, and the associated snow has ended in our eastern and southeastern counties. The surface pressure ridge axis will gradually shift east of our area tonight.
Light snow develops today over Central and Southwest Montana as warmer Pacific air moves into the region. Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect above 6000 feet where the higher snow accumulation is expected, but be mindful that a convective snow shower could produce locally significant impacts to travel at lower elevations as well.
556 AM CST Mon Feb 15 2021 A mid/upper trough across the Southern Plains is progged to lift east and northeast towards the area early this morning. We continue to sit under the H85 thermal trough within an arctic airmass that spans across the central CONUS. Arctic high pressure will remain wedged in across eastern Kansas tonight and with a few breaks in the clouds we are expecting a continuation of record setting cold with lows in the ten to 15 below range for most areas. Accumulating snow appears likely once again although the highest probabilities are expected to remain just south of the area.
345 AM MST Mon Feb 15 2021 Upper trough axis extended from north of Lake Superior through the central and southern Plains. Tonight/s lows will lower to the single digits below zero over western NE, with wind chills as low as -25 from Chadron through Alliance and Sidney where a Wind Chill Advisory is in effect from 5 PM this afternoon through 8 AM MST Tuesday The next upper trough to produce more mountain snow arrives by this evening, and deepens over the central CONUS Tuesday. Next shift can re- evaluate the high wind potential with 12Z models.
Temperatures begin to rise across the Land of Enchantment, reaching above freezing across western and central New Mexico.
Southerly flow south of the boundary continues warm/humid conditions across the state contributing to development of showers/storms this afternoon/evening into tonight as a surface wave develops along the boundary and quickly moves northeast dragging a cold front across the area late tonight into Tuesday. The trend of above normal temps continues today with highs topping out in the low/mid 80s ahead of the approaching system.
Weakening arctic high pressure sliding from the Dakotas into Minnesota and Iowa is moving slower than pressures are falling across the western half of Montana this morning.
These temperatures are largely thanks to a ~1040mb high pressure system sliding directly overhead, with clear skies further aiding cooler temperatures due to radiational cooling. As the high pressure slides off to our east throughout the morning, winds will likely increase enough to warrant leaving the current wind chill warning in place into the morning hours. Locations along the Buffalo Ridge in SW MN will be very near the center of the high pressure system, so winds look to remain light enough to go with a wind chill advisory instead. As the aforementioned high pressure continues to slide eastwards, south/southeasterly winds will bring some slightly warmer air into the area, leading to overnight lows remaining in the negative single digits.
350 AM PST Mon Feb 15 2021 A little warmer today. For tonight and Tuesday, a low pressure system from the northwest will bring cooling, stronger and gusty west winds for the mountains and deserts, and a slight chance of light showers.
A surface warm front stretching from near Ormond Beach to the Ocala Forest will remain to the north of Central FL today, leaving LL moisture with overlying stronger winds in the mid-upr levels in place. Afternoon highs will be well above normal for this time of year, with highs in the low to mid 80s across the north and mid to upper 80s across the south.
318 AM CST Mon Feb 15 2021 Very cold temperatures continue for the next 36 hours before noticeably warmer air begins to move in by Tuesday afternoon. Slightly warmer values are likely along the North Shore due to downslope winds keeping the boundary layer mixed overnight, and along the South Shore where onshore winds will buoy temperatures. Temperatures will trend noticeably warmer through the rest of the week into the weekend.
350 AM MST Mon Feb 15 2021 Light snow develops today over Central and Southwest Montana as warmer Pacific air moves into the region. Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect above 6000 feet where the higher snow accumulation is expected, but be mindful that a convective snow shower could produce locally significant impacts to travel at lower elevations as well.
Another upper trough will begin to affect the area during the day Tuesday bringing another shot at precipitation and strong winds to the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. Precipitation will begin to develop across portions of the area Tuesday afternoon as lift increases ahead of the trough. Temperatures will rise above freezing for most Tuesday with the eastern Permian Basin likely remaining near or below 32 degrees. With temperatures so close to freezing, precipitation type will be hard to pin down.
Models don't mix in warmer air, it just modifies the arctic air which models have been over doing the past week.
IR satl imagery indicates that the more enhanced cld tops associated wit the winter storm impacting TX today is shifting east towards the lower Miss River Valley.
The low will continue to move east-northeastward this morning with some light snow.
Look for a bit warmer temperatures and partly cloudy skies today.
Remainder of the forecast period will see generally dry weather with a warming trend as an upper ridge builds over the west coast.
121 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021 Another wave of impactful snow and freezing rain can be expected tonight and early Tuesday.
Anticipate winds will decrease with passage of the ridge axis, allowing wind chills to briefly warm, but would fall again after daybreak as winds increase, even with slowing increasing temperatures.
Therefore, tomorrow will only be slightly warmer than today, but once again, nearly everyone will be above zero tomorrow.
1153 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021 A winter storm will bring two waves of impactful snow and freezing rain to the area through early Tuesday.
244 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021 Summary: Warmer temperatures expected with a return to normal by the weekend. The remainder of the week the jet stream will make a slow advance northward helping to bring warmer air to the north, but the Northland will still be 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
So despite the crashing heights over the South, the subtropical ridge is holding strong. Highs today will reach the lower to mid 80s, which is rather remarkable considering the freezing rain falling in the New Orleans area. The coastal waters of the Florida Keys are wedged between high pressure south of Bermuda and low pressure over the western and central Gulf of Mexico. A cold front will reach the southeast Gulf on Tuesday but then retreat back toward the central Gulf on Tuesday night, bringing a brief wind shift across mostly the western waters.
Tuesday night we see an increase in clouds as mid /high-level moisture increases ahead of a weak trough approaching from the west.
245 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021 WV imagery shows the upper trough that brrrrought beaucoup snowfall and bitterly cold temperatures/wind chills to West Texas and Southeast New Mexico is now pivoting up into the MS Valley. As sfc ridging moves into the Central Plains overnight, return flow will develop, and should bring temperatures above freezing Tuesday afternoon for much of the area for the first time in days. Changeover to liquid and warmer temperatures should start melting the snowpack, but this will be a double-edged sword as a hard freeze is expected in this area Tuesday night, turning anything liquid back into ice. Meanwhile, an upper trough will arrive Tuesday night, and dig down into the Big Bend Area overnight.
In southeast Oregon, significant snow has ended within the past half hour, while the lower elevations of southwest Idaho will see significant precip ending by noon.
Areas of the Buffalo ridge may have slightly warmer wind chills given lighter wind values.
An upper trough will track from Utah into CO and NM on Tuesday, while an upstream disturbance drops southeast from MT into wrn SD and the Nebr. Upper troughing will again deepen across the mid section of the U.
Potential for freezing rain is increasing along and west of a general line from Butler AL to Waynesboro MS to near Wiggins MS. We still expect heavier precipitation will be moving out of these areas by mid afternoon, so new accrual of any icing should be ending by that time, but any ice already accumulated will remain, and water on surfaces that are currently above freezing could flash freeze as very cold, sub-freezing air moves in from the west. This issue with black ice will be a problem further east, over most of the forecast area, tonight as sub-freezing temperatures overspread the entire area. Freezing rain will be a possibility, primarily over southeast MS counties before the rain moves out.
By Tuesday afternoon, the Prairie Coteau region over into west central Minnesota will be joining the ranks of "return flow" in the low levels. But, for tonight into Tuesday morning, with south- southeasterly breezes developing within this return flow pressure gradient, temperatures are forecast to remain cold enough to produce wind chill values between -30F and -40F when combined with these forecast wind speeds. There is a mid-level impulse of low pressure working down the NOAM west coast (B.
1045 AM MST Mon Feb 15 2021 Updated Forecast and Aviation Sections Light snow develops today over Central and Southwest Montana as warmer Pacific air moves into the region. Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect above 6000 feet where the higher snow accumulation is expected, but be mindful that a convective snow shower could produce locally significant impacts to travel at lower elevations as well.
123 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021 A deep trough with record breaking cold air is over Texas this afternoon is creating baroclinic instability in the Western Gulf. After this trough lifts out another digs south into Texas again bringing winter weather to that state again and dropping surface pressures in the Western Gulf again around mid week. Dropping pressures in the Western Gulf will pull the front back north over us as a warm front.
1130 AM CST Mon Feb 15 2021 A mid/upper trough across the Southern Plains is progged to lift east and northeast towards the area early this morning. We continue to sit under the H85 thermal trough within an arctic airmass that spans across the central CONUS. Arctic high pressure will remain wedged in across eastern Kansas tonight and with a few breaks in the clouds we are expecting a continuation of record setting cold with lows in the ten to 15 below range for most areas. Accumulating snow appears likely once again although the highest probabilities are expected to remain just south of the area.
Latest model guidance has trended just a little bit colder for the lowest 3000 ft or so per model soundings, which may lean precip types for the western half to a more sleet/snow mix early on. Latest obs and mping reports coming in showing that sleet is the dominant precip type so far, with freezing rain mixing in. With a deeper near surface cold layer, the probability of sleet will increase, but the slightest adjustment of a shallower cold layer will lean the forecast to more freezing rain. if the cold air is shallower, we will be looking at more freezing rain in that area, and ice amounts will increase. Freezing rain is expected with IFR/LIFR conditions.
1123 AM CST Mon Feb 15 2021 Very cold temperatures continue for the next 36 hours before noticeably warmer air begins to move in by Tuesday afternoon. Slightly warmer values are likely along the North Shore due to downslope winds keeping the boundary layer mixed overnight, and along the South Shore where onshore winds will buoy temperatures. Temperatures will trend noticeably warmer through the rest of the week into the weekend.
High pressure will build into the region on Tuesday bringing a period of dry weather and very cold temperatures.
Northwest flow aloft will quickly back to the west-southwest with increasing amplification to a trough out west of the area. Surface temperatures below 0C in the morning to early afternoon may result in some freezing rain but very light ice accumulation. Temperatures are expected to rise enough in the afternoon to prevent freezing rain from continuing. Downsloping winds across the western South Plains will result in much warmer temperatures than today with values in the lower 40s possible.
The upper level trough is moving east bringing northwest flow aloft over the FA as of this writing. Down stream of this positively tilted trough will be ample PVA starting precip chances early in the day tomorrow.
Issued by National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1204 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021 (Today and tonight) The upper trough continues to move east across Texas and the southern Plains, and the associated snow has ended in our eastern and southeastern counties. The surface pressure ridge axis will gradually shift east of our area tonight.
1019 AM MST Mon Feb 15 2021 Deep trough remains centered over much of the central United States this morning. High temperatures are expected to finally push above freezing for a large portion of the area, with teens likely across portions of NE WY and the Black Hills. Cyclonic flow will continue through mid-week as a deep trough remains centered across the central US.
1035 AM MST Mon Feb 15 2021 Upper trough axis extended from north of Lake Superior through the central and southern Plains. Tonight/s lows will lower to the single digits below zero over western NE, with wind chills as low as -25 from Chadron through Alliance and Sidney where a Wind Chill Advisory is in effect from 5 PM this afternoon through 8 AM MST Tuesday The next upper trough to produce more mountain snow arrives by this evening, and deepens over the central CONUS Tuesday. Next shift can re- evaluate the high wind potential with 12Z models.
237 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021 Some low cloud and light snow/flurries persist underneath the upper trough this afternoon. This could last into the evening before the upper trough lifts northeast away from the region. Snow will begin to spread east into the region during the late afternoon as warm advection strengthens north of a sharpening 850mb warm front just south of the Red River.
Expect warmer temperatures, partly cloudy skies and gusty southwest winds today.
Prevailing MVFR cigs/vsbys with some localized IFR conditions in SHRA/TSRA can be expected between 03-11Z as a cold front moves south through the region. /issued 123 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021/ A deep trough with record breaking cold air is over Texas this afternoon is creating baroclinic instability in the Western Gulf. After this trough lifts out another digs south into Texas again bringing winter weather to that state again and dropping surface pressures in the Western Gulf again around mid week. Dropping pressures in the Western Gulf will pull the front back north over us as a warm front.
Dangerous road conditions will continue for the rest of the day in isolated areas especially the northern region, as temperatures will remain at or below freezing. High pressure over Central Texas will continue moving eastward, centering over the Middle Texas Coast, allowing winds to weaken and clouds to clear under ridging aloft for optimal radiational cooling at the surface.
2) Snow showers tonight through Tuesday mainly for the higher terrain, though some potential for scattered snow showers Tuesday afternoon for the adjacent lower levels/I-25 corridor. Only made minor adjustments to the low temps tonight, and still think the coldest temps of around 10 below zero will occur closer to the CO/KS border. Highest confidence for the lowest wind chills was across eastern Kiowa and Prowers, and decided to change these locations to a Wind Chill Warning. A mid/upper trough swings overhead on Tuesday, with low and mid level flow expected to veer and bring increasing chances of snow to the eastern mountains. While some slightly warmer temps may be in place on Tuesday and possibly support rain, a cold column with quickly increasing forcing will likely keep ptypes all snow.
Heavy sleet and freezing rain that went through pretty quickly has moved off to the north and east, with freezing rain being reported for eastern areas that are below 32F this afternoon. This undercut not only the freezing rain amounts but also the snow amounts, and was further reduced by the dry slot that was poorly handled by earlier runs of the models. Therefore we are not out of the woods yet so to speak for additional snow and sleet, and even some lingering freezing rain. Even for the areas on the Plateau and southeast that got above freezing this afternoon will fall below, and road impacts will continue overnight into the day Tuesday. Tuesday will be dry, but cold, with highs only in the low to mid 20s.
351 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021 Heavy sleet and freezing rain that went through pretty quickly has moved off to the north and east, with freezing rain being reported for eastern areas that are below 32F this afternoon. This undercut not only the freezing rain amounts but also the snow amounts, and was further reduced by the dry slot that was poorly handled by earlier runs of the models. Therefore we are not out of the woods yet so to speak for additional snow and sleet, and even some lingering freezing rain. Even for the areas on the Plateau and southeast that got above freezing this afternoon will fall below, and road impacts will continue overnight into the day Tuesday. Tuesday will be dry, but cold, with highs only in the low to mid 20s.
Despite the snowpack, not seeing much if any indication of freezing fog development overnight so have left it out of this terminal package. Otherwise, expect some lingering patchy flurries across the region, especially downstream of warmer bodies of water.
Otherwise, expect some lingering patchy flurries across the region, especially downstream of warmer bodies of water.
559 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: MVFR cigs continue as -sn remains reported intermittently from the low deck. A squall line of sleet, freezing rain, and snow brought up to 6 to 7 inches of sleet and snow accumulations to some areas, while over one quarter inch of freezing rain in other places downed limbs, trees, and power lines to cause power outages. Looking at satellite imagery, subsidence along the back side of the upper-level trough and a mid-level dry slot punching in behind the departing system will continue to erode cloud cover into the overnight hours.