Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A dry airmass will continue at the low levels. The coldest temperatures are expected along the lower Arkansas river basin and the higher elevations across far western Kansas. The warmest readings (L30s) are expected across the lower elevations of south-central Kansas.
238 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2020 High pressure ridge extended from MO to IL bringing wall-to-wall sunshine and southwest winds to the dvn cwa. Tonight: Clear with a light south wind and lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s, as the high pressure slips slowly to our east. This is ahead of a deepening trough in the Upper Midwest.
The front will exit the region this evening, but in its wake, some non-trivial amount of moisture will linger in the low levels particularly across south and east portions of the area.
1115 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2020 More autumn like weather is on tap across the region today, in the wake of a strong cold front which passed yesterday evening. Skies are expected to clear over the region this morning, as high pressure builds east into central Illinois. Autumn has decided to make a return, as temperatures have fallen quickly behind the recent cold front. Despite plenty of afternoon sunshine, highs should only reach around 50 degrees over a large part of the forecast area, and a bit warmer south of I-70. Winds will gradually diminish as high pressure builds into central Illinois by late afternoon, and skies will generally be clear overnight aside from a few high clouds.
1222 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 Marine - Much cooler today - Wet for the weekend -- Much cooler today -- If you stepped outside lately, you've likely noticed that the late summer-like weather is long gone! A strong cold front passed over Lower Michigan a few hours ago ushering the 70 degree weather to the east. Strong west winds gusting over 40 mph are pushing much cooler air across the region.
Under mostly clear skies, temperatures tonight to radiate down to the lower to middle 40s areawide. Afternoon high temperatures on Thursday to climb into the lower to middle 70s. West to southwest flow aloft to advect mid to upper-level clouds across the region on Thursday night allowing for overnight low temperatures to be slightly warmer in the lower 50s.
257 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 Area of stratus/strato-cu downwind of Lake Michigan will steadily erode into this evening as drier air associated with approaching high pressure works east into the region. This will bring clear skies by late this evening/overnight with temperatures dropping into the upper 20s to lower 30s as wind speeds continue to weaken as the pressure gradient slackens with the building high pressure. This high will build across the area on Thursday and provide sunny skies and seasonable temperatures around 50 degrees.
307 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 Cold front pushes through the region with high pressure building behind it.
Latest sfc observations show that our cold front has passed through about half of our area. The cold front will continue to move eastward through the day and should move through our entire area later this afternoon. A cold front is currently making its way across Middle Tennessee this morning, with widespread, mainly light showers along and ahead of the front and plenty of low clouds.
337 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 Drier air will move into the region tonight as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes. High pressure will continue to provide dry weather and seasonal temperatures the rest of the week into the start of the weekend. On Thursday, stiff mid-level southwesterlies continue while high pressure continues to dominate at the surface. Short wave and associated cold front will be passing across the region at the beginning of the period.
Maintained the low measurable rain chances (sprinkles/RW--)for any high based showers that can reach the ground.
With the cold front finally having pushed south of the TAF sites, not expecting any issues with this package as a cooler/drier air- mass continues to filter across the region. /ISSUED 308 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2020/ At 2 AM, a weak cold front extended from Jasper to near Hobby Airport and then southwest toward Wharton. The drier air overnight should allow temperatures to radiate and cooler overnight low temperatures are expected by Thursday morning with lows in the low/mid 50's north and mid 60's toward the coast. MaxT values on Thursday should again warm into the lower and middle 80's. A weak onshore flow returns Thursday night with a subtle increase in low level moisture/dew points with overnight low temperatures trending just a bit warmer.
We will see clearing from west to east today as the wave exits and ridging approaches from the west.
1257 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 Drier air will begin to move into the region as a cold front exits to the east today. High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley through the rest of the week, providing seasonal weather conditions. With the cold front well east of the CWA this morning, light rain and drizzle will slowly wind down in the southeast as 925mb flow shifts to the northwest and dry air makes its way into the Ohio Valley. With high pressure over the region tonight and tomorrow, dry conditions are expected.
1249 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 Aviation - Much cooler today - Wet for the weekend -- Much cooler today -- If you stepped outside lately, you've likely noticed that the late summer-like weather is long gone! A strong cold front passed over Lower Michigan a few hours ago ushering the 70 degree weather to the east. Strong west winds gusting over 40 mph are pushing much cooler air across the region.
1011 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 Drier air will begin to move into the region as a cold front exits to the east today. High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley through the rest of the week, providing seasonal weather conditions. With the cold front well east of the CWA this morning, light rain and drizzle will slowly wind down in the southeast as 925mb flow shifts to the northwest and dry air makes its way into the Ohio Valley. With high pressure over the region tonight and tomorrow, dry conditions are expected.
Winds will begin to veer to the west as a cold front begins to drop southward across the foothills of the Rockies. The cold front should be moving into our northern counties by noon tomorrow before pushing through the FA by sunset. Highs tomorrow should not be greatly affected by the cold front given it will be passive and slow moving. Winds behind the cold front will be out of the northeast gusting to 20-25 mph. Late Thursday, a cold front will move from the Central Plains into the area thanks to a trough traversing the Midwest.
951 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2020 More autumn like weather is on tap across the region today, in the wake of a strong cold front which passed yesterday evening. Skies are expected to clear over the region this morning, as high pressure builds east into central Illinois. Autumn has decided to make a return, as temperatures have fallen quickly behind the recent cold front. Despite plenty of afternoon sunshine, highs should only reach around 50 degrees over a large part of the forecast area, and a bit warmer south of I-70. Winds will gradually diminish as high pressure builds into central Illinois by late afternoon, and skies will generally be clear overnight aside from a few high clouds.
Remaining cyclonic flow continues to break down as surface ridging and drier air build into the Western Great Lakes this afternoon. High pressure center will slide SE of Michigan by midday Thursday.
1001 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 The cold front is now moving through eastern Kentucky, and high pressure over Missouri is providing us with cool northwest breezes. Our record-breaking warmth streak will take a break today, as a cold front currently is making a steady march eastward across the region. Then high pressure will build into the region. However for points staying under the cloud cover, like the Lake Cumberland and I- 75 counties, the highs today likely will be this morning. That high pressure will stay to our north tonight, keeping us with a steady north wind and allowing lows to fall to the upper 30s to low 40s for most locations. High pressure will be in place across the upper Ohio Valley to start off Thursday morning.
Currently, the expectation is still for the highest rainfall rates to take place later this afternoon before gradually decreasing west to east with the approaching frontal boundary. For TYS, VCTS is possible with the highest chance for +SHRA during the later afternoon into the early evening with reductions to at least IFR expected. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 71 50 70 46 / 60 10 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 66 50 67 43 / 80 20 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 55 67 48 67 42 / 70 10 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 66 50 66 39 / 100 40 10 0 0.
943 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 Drier air will move into the region tonight as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes. High pressure will continue to provide dry weather and seasonal temperatures the rest of the week into the start of the weekend. Much cooler air will be moving into the region with lows in the 30s across most locations overnight. On Thursday, stiff mid-level southwesterlies continue while high pressure continues to dominate at the surface. Short wave and associated cold front will be passing across the region at the beginning of the period.
Satellite imagery this afternoon was revealing a broad upper trough encompassing the CONUS.
643 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 Aviation - Weak front to move through the area Thursday night - Stronger system expected over the weekend - Temperatures mostly back to reality for the next 7 days -- Weak front to move through the area Thursday night -- Clouds will clear this evening as temperatures warm in the lowest 5,000ft. A weak cold front will approach the area Thursday night and increase moisture below 5,000ft.
However, near freezing temperatures will still be possible in wind sheltered interior valleys early Thursday morning.
310 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2020 An area of low pressure was moving along the North Dakota/Canada border this afternoon. Energy ejecting out of the short wave trof ahead of these features was driving cloud cover into the area. After the system departs, a positively tilted trof follows behind and moves across the forecast area Thursday. Meanwhile, a cold front will push through the area. The upper trof and the cold front depart Thursday evening, bringing an end to the snow from west to east. High pressure builds in behind with a clearing trend.
Skies will slowly clear across portions of north Mississippi overnight which will keep temperatures there a little warmer than across the remainder of the Mid-South as lows Thursday morning will range from the mid 30s to the upper 40s. The synoptic pattern is highlighted by a broad trough over the central and western CONUS with a ridge along the east coast. The cold front has moved well south of the area this afternoon with associated light rain showers ending across the CWA.
A cold front currently positioned over northeast Wyoming will sweep south through the Nebraska Panhandle this evening with northerly winds and slightly cooler temperatures. Additional forcing from the front along with upslope flow along the Pine Ridge will support snowfall tonight across Converse and Niobrara Counties in Wyoming and over towards Chadron and the northern Nebraska Panhandle.
230 PM MST Wed Nov 11 2020 One minor ripple in the broader upper level trough over the region is crossing northwest CO at this time.
/Issued 229 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2020/ High pressure remains in control this afternoon with temperatures warming to near seasonal averages.
Tonight, temps fall into the lower 20s for most of the area, so be aware of potential slick spots as temps fall. Areas with snow pack will struggle to get out of the upper 20s, with other locations in the lower to mid 30s.
523 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2020 311 PM CST We have a broad longwave trough from Alberta/Saskatchewan down through west TX, with a long-wave ridge off the CONUS East Coast, as a 158 kt jet max departs our region downstream. Our flow becomes more zonal near 700 mb, with high pressure becoming evident to our southwest at 850 mb down to the surface. Another low pressure is located along the Canada/N Dakota border with an associated cold front stretching towards Wyoming. The day started out cloudy with low clouds around 2000', helping to keep our temperatures at or above freezing. High pressure and lack of clouds will allow cooling low temperatures Thursday morning, but there is weak warm air advection which will balance out low temperatures to near what we had this morning.
High pressure traveling from Illinois to Ohio will supply us with cool, dry air on north breezes of 5-10mph tonight. Lows tonight will be in the 30s where skies clear, and in the low-mid 40s where clouds hang on. Tomorrow looks great as that high proceeds to upstate New York but continues to control our weather as it ridges southwestward into the Ohio Valley.
First wave will push a cold front through early tomorrow with a brief period of breezy winds in the morning, but diminishing in the afternoon. Temperatures will be slightly cooler, with highs in the upper 40s and lows tomorrow night around 20.
It seems that the high resolution models are keeping the snow for a little longer than the the global models, which is consistent with current observational trends. The high resolution models are doing fairly well at accounting for mesoscale features within the snow shield, though the placement in reality has been a bit further south than previously thought. As the main upper trough slides east into the Midwest, a ridge will build across the Pacific NW and extend into eastern Montana for the second half of the week.
A broad longwave trough is presently positioned over the western half North America. For Thursday, some weak ridging aloft will further promote pleasant conditions.
/issued 242 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night): Mid level ridging will continue over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande through the short term with little change in the weather pattern. Winds will continue to shift from northerly back to the east tonight with warmer than normal temperatures expected. Tropical Storm Eta swells continue to be directed towards the Lower Texas Coast leading to slightly elevated tides.
748 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 A cold front is moving through Central PA this evening and will push off to the southeast of the CWA overnight. High pressure building into the Ohio Valley will bring cooler and drier weather to the region for late in the week.
A cold front is stretching from the Lower Atchafalaya River Basin northeast across the Appalachians and into eastern Great Lakes. High pressure is building east across the mid Mississippi Valley. As the cold front departs the area a drier and slightly cooler air mass will filter in.
356 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2020 Surface cold front should move through the local area this evening and overnight. Afternoon temps will be a few degrees cooler tomorrow compared to today, but the biggest difference behind the front will be drier air filtering in and allowing overnight lows to drop back to near or slightly higher than normal instead of well above normal. For Thurs and Fri nights, expect lows to fall into the low to mid 50s north and into the mid 50s to lower 60s south.
636 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2020 Initial progressive band and following cluster of snow showers (mixed with rain and even possible sleet) is quickly moving across the northern RRV where axis of WAA and steep mid level lapse rates are in place ahead of main cold front.
427 PM MST Wed Nov 11 2020 Water vapor shows broad trof working from the western into the central CONUS. Main upper low is over ND with secondary circulation tracking eastward from ID into WY.
311 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2020 311 PM CST We have a broad longwave trough from Alberta/Saskatchewan down through west TX, with a long-wave ridge off the CONUS East Coast, as a 158 kt jet max departs our region downstream. Our flow becomes more zonal near 700 mb, with high pressure becoming evident to our southwest at 850 mb down to the surface. Another low pressure is located along the Canada/N Dakota border with an associated cold front stretching towards Wyoming. The day started out cloudy with low clouds around 2000', helping to keep our temperatures at or above freezing. High pressure and lack of clouds will allow cooling low temperatures Thursday morning, but there is weak warm air advection which will balance out low temperatures to near what we had this morning.
251 PM MST Wed Nov 11 2020 Watching an upper level trof which is over the Northern Rockies this afternoon, as this system will quickly move across Colorado tonight and early Thursday. Expect westerly winds to increase over the mountains Thursday morning as the trof passes along with increasing subsident flow. Expect temperatures will be a bit cooler Thursday afternoon behind the trof and breezy conditions on the plains, especially over northern border sections.
A cold front was dropping southeast into the Cumberland Plateau of TN through HSV into central MS. Mostly patchy of light rain and drizzle were found just ahead of and immediately behind the cold front.
Northwest areas had dropped dewpoints into the lower 50s this morning, but the moisture gradient lifted back to the north as onshore flow returned, and dpts are always back into the lower 60s there.
A series of weak short wave troughs will pass north of New Mexico through the weekend. However, precipitation chances are slim and none as the low levels of the atmosphere remain dry.
533 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2020 For the 00Z TAFs, a weak cold front will move across the terminal sites on Thursday, with winds becoming north to northeast.
351 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2020 Surface cold front should move through the local area this evening and overnight. Afternoon temps will be a few degrees cooler tomorrow compared to today, but the biggest difference behind the front will be drier air filtering in and allowing overnight lows to drop back to near or slightly higher than normal instead of well above normal. For Thurs and Fri nights, expect lows to fall into the low to mid 50s north and into the mid 50s to lower 60s south.
537 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2020 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: A cold front is moving through the region this evening. The front will exit the region this evening, but in its wake, some non-trivial amount of moisture will linger in the low levels particularly across south and east portions of the area.
618 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 Showers are exiting the region this evening with a crossing cold front. Drier and cooler weather is then expected through the first half of the weekend. Latest sfc analysis shows the cold front lying just west of the Allegheny mountains, with lingering showers along that boundary and to the east. Light rain will likely linger across the ridges of Preston and Tucker counties into the early pre-dawn hours before fully clearing the area. High pressure will build in wake of the cold front overnight, gradually clearing clouds from the west, while the Allegheny Mtns will likely remain under cloud cover.
434 PM MST Wed Nov 11 2020 One minor ripple in the broader upper level trough over the region is crossing northwest CO at this time.
Cold front has moved through the area, and most of the precip is off to the east. The low clouds may also allow for areas of drizzle overnight on the Plateau as well.
655 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 Drier air will move into the region tonight as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes. High pressure will continue to provide dry weather and seasonal temperatures the rest of the week into the start of the weekend. Much cooler air will be moving into the region with lows in the 30s across most locations overnight. On Thursday, stiff mid-level southwesterlies continue while high pressure continues to dominate at the surface. Short wave and associated cold front will be passing across the region at the beginning of the period.
A quiet and slightly warmer night is expected with lows Thursday morning in the lower to middle 30s. An approaching upper wave will increase cloud cover on Thursday, with similar temperatures as today ahead of a cold front. With a dry airmass in place, the cold frontal passage will be dry and advect cooler temperatures.
The bulk of this forecast period should see VFR conditions and light winds as high pressure takes command of our area weather. A cold front is stretching from the Lower Atchafalaya River Basin northeast across the Appalachians and into eastern Great Lakes. High pressure is building east across the mid Mississippi Valley. As the cold front departs the area a drier and slightly cooler air mass will filter in.
535 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2020 An area of low pressure was moving along the North Dakota/Canada border this afternoon. Energy ejecting out of the short wave trof ahead of these features was driving cloud cover into the area. After the system departs, a positively tilted trof follows behind and moves across the forecast area Thursday. Meanwhile, a cold front will push through the area. The upper trof and the cold front depart Thursday evening, bringing an end to the snow from west to east. High pressure builds in behind with a clearing trend.
1003 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2020 An area of low pressure was moving along the North Dakota/Canada border this afternoon. Energy ejecting out of the short wave trof ahead of these features was driving cloud cover into the area. After the system departs, a positively tilted trof follows behind and moves across the forecast area Thursday. Meanwhile, a cold front will push through the area. The upper trof and the cold front depart Thursday evening, bringing an end to the snow from west to east. High pressure builds in behind with a clearing trend.
1001 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 Back edge of a mid-level cloud deck is very close to I-65, but difficult to see in IR imagery because the lower/mid-40s sfc temps under the clear skies are too close to the +4-5C cloud-layer temps noted in the ILN and OHX soundings at 0Z. High pressure traveling from Illinois to Ohio will supply us with cool, dry air on north breezes of 5-10mph tonight. Lows tonight will be in the 30s where skies clear, and in the low-mid 40s where clouds hang on. Tomorrow looks great as that high proceeds to upstate New York but continues to control our weather as it ridges southwestward into the Ohio Valley.
300 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2020 Early this morning, high pressure was located to the south and east of the area. An approaching upper level wave will lead to an increase in clouds and bringing a cold front through the area this evening. Cold front will be chances for rain this evening. Discussion: Upper level wave will swing through the area this evening bringing with it a cold front.
1101 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2020 Clear skies and a much cooler night ahead in the wake of our latest frontal passage. The bulk of this forecast period should see VFR conditions and light winds as high pressure takes command of our area weather. A cold front is stretching from the Lower Atchafalaya River Basin northeast across the Appalachians and into eastern Great Lakes. High pressure is building east across the mid Mississippi Valley. As the cold front departs the area a drier and slightly cooler air mass will filter in.
With the expected cloud cover, antecedent snow cover, and persistent CAA, highs today will generally be stuck below the freezing mark.
1131 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2020 An area of low pressure was moving along the North Dakota/Canada border this afternoon. Energy ejecting out of the short wave trof ahead of these features was driving cloud cover into the area. After the system departs, a positively tilted trof follows behind and moves across the forecast area Thursday. Meanwhile, a cold front will push through the area. The upper trof and the cold front depart Thursday evening, bringing an end to the snow from west to east. High pressure builds in behind with a clearing trend.
Temperatures will be cooler than we have seen for the past few days thanks to the cloud cover and weak cold advection behind the departing front, topping out in the mid to upper 60s for most spots.