Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today through Saturday) Mostly clear and dry conditions are expected across much of the area this afternoon as strong high pressure aloft continues to have a hold on South-Central Texas weather. For tonight, mostly clear skies will prevail with low temperatures in the lower to middle 70s for most areas.
648 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022 (Today) An upper-level ridge of high pressure centered over AR/OK will remain the dominant feature in place across the Mid South and Tennessee Valley today. The end result will be another very warm and dry day as strong subsidence from the ridge will suppress most diurnal convection once again. This feature will serve as a focus for scattered convection on the eastern edge of the ridge.
744 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022 High pressure will be in control through the weekend.
Chances of rain limited to the mountains and Southwestern North Carolina, largely in the higher elevations. The limiting factor to storm developement will be the developing ridge north of the area. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 73 92 71 93 / 20 20 30 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 70 92 71 92 / 20 10 20 10 40 Oak Ridge, TN 92 70 91 69 92 / 10 10 20 10 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 67 90 66 89 / 10 10 20 10 50.
(Tomorrow through Friday) Breezy south to southwesterly winds and an intensifying low level thermal ridge will support a continued warming trend Saturday across the forecast area.
Subsidence and abundant sunshine beneath a mid- level ridge will allow temperatures to climb above 100 degrees for nearly all locations this afternoon.
the forecast area remains under southwest flow aloft, in between high pressure over southeast Oklahoma and an upper level trough to our west and northwest. This area of moisture gets shunted to the south overnight as a cold front moves through. It will be hot with high temperatures ranging from the lower to middle 90s in far eastern Colorado to the middle 90s to around 105 east of the CO/KS border. monsoonal moisture originating from norther Mexico in the morning approaches areas along and south of a line from Hill City to Tribune in the afternoon around the upper high. It will be much cooler compared to Friday with high temperatures in the upper 70s to middle 80s. Low temperatures will cool into the lower 50s to around 60.
As alluded to in the previous discussion, expect a sfc cold front to advance eastward this afternoon, causing showers and storms, a few of which could become severe, to be possible this evening and into the overnight period. Thus, with the greatest severe threat expected to occur during the overnight period (9 PM to 5 AM), we strongly encourage you to have multiple ways to receive warnings, in the event that storms do become severe! Otherwise, look for dry conditions to gradually return from west to east near daybreak Saturday as the aforementioned cold front departs the region. As a result, should see notably cooler temperatures prevail across the region - with highs currently forecast to only rise into the 70s to low 80s.
Currently dewpoints are primarily in the lower to mid 60s. An inverted trough axis extends northward from this feature into central and easter Georgia at 10 AM.
Sunny, breezy, and bright today with no repeat of yesterday's thunderstorms in our CWA as the upper low in NV has moved to WY. Another upper low to our north will bring cooler air to our CWA today and tonight before it exits east Saturday.
Luckily our dew points are still in the 60s so heat indices are only a degree or two warmer than temperatures. Afternoon RH's should dip into the low 30s across much of the Midsouth.
Cooler air will move into Central MT, with another round of showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening.
143 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022 High pressure will result in warm and dry conditions today. The high will extend into the region on Saturday as temperatures and humidity begin to rise some.
(This evening through Saturday) Like clockwork, temperatures across west central Texas this afternoon were once again in the upper 90s to low 100s as a 590dam mid-level ridge continues to be the main feature across the southern Plains.
Chances of rain limited to the mountains and Southwestern North Carolina, largely in the higher elevations. The limiting factor to storm developement will be the developing ridge north of the area.
/TW/ Stout upper ridging remains centered across the Lower Mississippi Valley today with anomalously warm low-level temperatures. At the surface, a weak boundary is draped across northeast Mississippi where dewpoints are in the low 60s. Further southwest, however, dewpoints remain in the low 70s to upper 60s.
239 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022 Key Messages: - Some severe storms are possible tomorrow as a cold front moves through - A break from the heat as cool and dry air move in behind the front - The heat returns for the end of the week Early this afternoon, northeast Kansas remains on the northern periphery of the upper-level ridge. Tomorrow, an upper-level trough and surface cold front will swing through the central Plains. Conditions rapidly improve behind the front as ample cloud cover should keep temperatures cooler and northerly winds bring in more dry air. Model guidance varies wildly on the timing/placement of the cold front, but a general consensus has the front near the I-35 corridor by the afternoon hours.
Today Through Saturday Night An upper ridge continues to be centered over the southern U. with upper troughs in the northwest and northeast. The upper ridge will build eastward through Saturday and the upper trough in the northwest will move through the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains by Saturday. The upper ridge will be centered over Arkansas Saturday. A weak cold front continues in southwest Arkansas this morning. Rain chances diminish Saturday as the high pressure takes hold of the state. This will result in warmer temperatures.
Mid-level ridging, currently centered over northern Texas, will continue to be the main influence of hot and dry weather for Deep South Texas through the period. Meanwhile, at the surface, high pressure across the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue to provide moderate to slightly breezy southeast winds over the next couple of days. The mid-level ridge will marginally loosen its grip over Southern Texas beginning this evening as its center drifts east-northeastward over the ArkLaTex region. However, the overall sensible weather really won't change much for Saturday, except perhaps maybe a degree or two cooler during the daytime compared to today; highs are still expected to peak in the mid-upper 90s and lower 100s (near seasonal average) for most inland locations Saturday afternoon. Nighttime conditions will also remain warm and sultry, with lows generally in the low-mid 70s.
Northward expansion of the ridge axis results in rising heights tomorrow along with plenty of sunshine, contributing to a slightly warmer day with high temperatures peaking around the 90 degree mark. Overall pattern shifts late tomorrow afternoon and evening as a closed upper low pushes eastward across the upper Midwest, dragging a surface cold front along with it. Initially will see an increase in mid to high cloud coverage tomorrow evening as a warm front pushes eastward into the area, with winds veering southwesterly throughout the vertical column.
1248 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022 (Today and tonight) The mid level ridge will remain anchored over the area today, with hot temperatures persisting. Afternoon highs today will be a little warmer than yesterday, with most areas seeing between 101 and 104 degrees.
Tonight: LLJ increases as a trough digs into the northern Plains/upper Midwest. Then showers and storms redevelop along the cold front that pushes into the dvn cwa.
Also, will flatten the highs off at 96 for BNA. Unfortunately, the heat will get turned up a notch today into tomorrow as the upper level ridge centered over the Southern Plains shifts eastward and heights build across Middle Tennessee. This will allow for some widely scattered showers and storms to pop up by late morning and especially in the afternoon along and east of I-65, with the highest precip chances in our Plateau counties. West of I-65 where the upper ridge will dominate and keep precip chances nil, highs will again increase a couple of degrees with mid to upper 90s expected.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will keep VFR conditions in place for the terminals through the period. There is a slight potential for some convection to develop during max heating after 24/20Z, however with the probability on the low side and CAMs showing any convection staying away from terminals, did not mention any shower activity for any site.
As the forecast model trend suggested yesterday, a more vigorous low pressure system was able to develop over northwest Montana this afternoon.
206 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022 A large area of high pressure will keep rain-free weather over the region for most of the weekend.
Just in the last hour or so we have seen a quick build up of convection in north Florida associated with a cold front. A cold front stalling over the area will bring in an increase of moisture across the area. This cold front will stick around the area through the weekend which will bring no fire weather concerns for the area.
220 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022 Upper ridge has retreated into the southern plains, and the central plains will come more under the influence of a northern stream trough moving out of the northern Rockies tonight and Saturday. Severe threat will be over by about 06z as main cluster moves east, with only isolated lingering showers/thunderstorms after midnight as the cold front begins making its way through the forecast area. Aforementioned cold front will continue through the area Saturday morning with breezy to windy north winds which continue through the afternoon hours.
That change comes with a cold front that will likely move into the extreme southwestern and south-central portions of the forecast area as early as mid-afternoon Saturday. Outflow from ongoing convection will assist in pushing the cold front southward through the remainder of the forecast area during the late evening hours on Saturday.
High pressure continues over South Texas tonight through Saturday night with warm and dry conditions expected.
1123 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022 High pressure will be in control through the weekend.
Discussion: Through this evening, an inverted trough from far northeast Tennessee. Main forcing will remain orographic forcing so best coverage across the higher elevations.
Tomorrow afternoon, relief arrives in the form of a cold front.
RMS A cold front has made its way through all but the far southeast early this morning. This front will provide a cooler day with highs around 15 degrees below highs of yesterday. Expect high temperatures in the lower to mid 70s. North to northeast winds will increase today as the cooler air behind the front settles in. Heights will lower today as an upper trough swings across northern Montana. Saturday will be a dry day with northwest flow taking over and the back side of the trough passage. Temperatures Saturday will be even cooler than today, with highs around 70 degrees.
Cap should also continue to erode with and advancing cold front.
High pressure will move east of the area today through Saturday, with modest return flow setting up. We will see mid level heights rise as the ridge moves back to the east toward the area through Saturday.
300 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022 Tonight through tomorrow: Stout upper ridging will remain centered across the Lower Mississippi Valley through tomorrow with an anomalous thermal ridge extending from the Southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states. A pocket of dry air will also continue to linger across eastern Mississippi with dewpoints in the low 60s to upper 50s.
Saturday is expected to be significantly cooler than the last few days as a result of decreasing heights with the trough moving in.
Stout upper ridging remains centered across the Lower Mississippi Valley today with anomalously warm low-level temperatures. At the surface, a weak boundary is draped across northeast Mississippi where dewpoints are in the low 60s. Further southwest, however, dewpoints remain in the low 70s to upper 60s.
A cluster of convection that developed north of a warm front this morning continues to diminish as it tracks E/SE across northern and central Missouri this afternoon. readings along/east of I-55 have dropped into the lower to middle 50s. Most CAMs develop widely scattered showers/thunder along the warm front as it lifts into the area overnight: however, areal coverage will be limited. Once this activity diminishes, a hot and dry afternoon will be on tap as the atmosphere becomes capped ahead of an approaching cold front. Once the cold front pushes across the Mississippi River into west-central Illinois Saturday evening, the cap will weaken sufficiently to produce scattered thunderstorms.
107 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022 High pressure will build across the Commonwealth into the first part of the upcoming weekend.
There will then be an opportunity for isold to sct storms late Sat afternoon and evening with the passage of a cold front.
158 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022 High pressure will dominate the area through the weekend.
In addition, a jet streak is located on the eastern side of the trough.
A Heat Advisory remains in effect across our northern zones through the remainder of the afternoon with ambient temperatures expected to break into the low 100s through the remainder of the afternoon while heat indicies exceed 105.
315 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022 High pressure will dominate the forecast across the mid-Atlantic states into North Carolina through the weekend.
331 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022 High pressure will dominate the forecast across the mid-Atlantic states into North Carolina through the weekend.
That has put this region in a very light wind regime, with subsidence from upper ridging centered over the eastern Great Plains drying the top of the mixed layer, which has led dewpoints to fall into the mid 50s this afternoon - leading to a warm but quite pleasant and mostly sunny day. The upper ridging coupled with quite a bit of sunshine should lead to a warmer day overall, with highs climbing into the mid and perhaps upper 90s.
There is a lingering low system with a weak surface cold front exiting the area currently. High pressure builds in tonight into Saturday bringing dry and overall clear conditions.
- A cold front moves through the region tomorrow afternoon/evening with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible (possibly a few strong storms).
259 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022 High pressure centered off the Mid Atlantic coast will provide a dry weekend with seasonably warm temperatures.
While high pressure centered over Texas should keep us dry through the short term period, a few thunderstorms may develop off the Sacramento Mnts and higher terrain out west this afternoon and Saturday. Overnight lows will be warm in the low 70s.
With the abundant moisture, afternoon high temperatures will be near or a bit cooler than average. Once again the highest levels of DCAPE are across Pima and Pinal counties. With the abundant moisture, afternoon high temperatures will be near or a bit cooler than average.
225 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022 CIMSS mean steering analysis reveals a deep mean layer ridge centered over the ARK-LA-TEX region and extending south over most of the southeastern United States. The ridge has promoted fair and relatively stable weather conditions over the last 24 hours and has pumped dry air through the atmospheric column, which resulted in subsidence.
1025 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022 Cooler air will move into Central MT, with another round of showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening.
Some CAMs suggest the influence of this disturbance could spark a few showers across western portions of the area very late tonight into Saturday morning, but the dry air in place across the area should prevent this, or at least limit it to virga, and will continue with the dry forecast for now, and depict a gradual increase in mid and high level cloud both with the MCV and high level moisture with the approaching cold front that will likely spark a few showers and storms late in the short term. Temps will continue to trend a bit warmer ahead of the front per low level thermal progs, but this additional warming will be modest and temporary.
High pressure returns overnight into Saturday, starting a gradual warming trend.
1212 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022 (Today and tonight) An upper ridge will result in hotter and dry conditions for today. Breezy southwest winds will also advect dry and hotter air in from western Texas, as most of our area should see triple digit high temperatures of 100- 105 degrees, with the higher values across our west. Did go slightly warmer than the cooler biased NBM for this afternoons MaxT using the CONSShort. Although the drier air coming in from the southwest will keep the heat index values more negligible across most of our area, expecting lower 70s dewpoint to remain across eastcentral into southeast Oklahoma where the heat index will be the highest and easily 105 degrees.
201 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022 Upper trough is crossing the northern Rockies and moving into central Montana. A cold front over northwest/west central SD associated with a central Canadian low will continue to slide southeastward this afternoon. and even into the early morning hours until the main trough axis pushes through. Upper ridging will build across the region for the weekend, bringing near to slightly below average temperatures and dry conditions. A cold front crossing the area will be the focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening.
137 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022 High pressure will be in control through the weekend.
The remainder of today should see an approaching cold front push southward from north-central WY. The push of CAA from the approaching cold front will occur between 6Z-12Z overnight into Saturday morning. Temperatures will hover in the 60s for a majority of the cwa, with isolated areas seeing daytime highs in the low 70s along the North Platte River Valley.
Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to bring some weak vorts into the region this afternoon and tonight, but the main upper low will be to our northwest until tomorrow. The warm front has lifted into northeastern ND, with rich moisture and instability across most of the CWA. Storms have been firing near the warm front across northeastern ND and northwestern MN, with the somewhat limited (25-35 kts) of deep layer shear, storms have been a bit messy and only briefly organized. CAMs have the storms that have so far been pretty slow moving along the warm front, accelerate and push eastward by midnight. Impacts will be a lot less tomorrow as the main upper low moves across southern Manitoba.
Another area of showers will brush the southern zones as they move into the Dakotas with an upper trough.
1230 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022 (Today through Saturday) Mostly clear and dry conditions are expected across much of the area this afternoon as strong high pressure aloft continues to have a hold on South-Central Texas weather. For tonight, mostly clear skies will prevail with low temperatures in the lower to middle 70s for most areas.
It's warmer northwest with some 90s showing themselves on local observations. As the warm air pushes north through Kansas against that cooler air, it's acting as a de facto warm front and may be the focus for some evening storms.
A cold front stretches from northeast ND to western SD and will continue eastward tonight. Another area of convection is expected to develop over SD or NE later this afternoon near a secondary low pressure center. This low will develop a strong LLJ from the central Plains to IA this evening, increasing moisture transport into MN. Cooler and drier air will follow Saturday afternoon and Saturday night.
Effects of persistent ridging reflected in temperature curves today as readings return to familiar above-normal territory with MaxTs peaking in the upper 80s, approaching 90F for the more urbanized locations. Ridge amplification underway Saturday with northeastward expansion emanating from ArkLaTex height max. 50 inches) reflected by ENS/NAEFS IVT within the 90th percentile, but the better forcing/dynamics lag toward the west, co-located with an inbound cold front.
318 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022 Heat indices have remained below 100 degrees so far this afternoon with high temperatures in the low to middle 90s. RH's are in the low to middle 30s. A ridge will continue to build across the Midsouth tonight and tomorrow. High temperatures and heat indices should be a couple of degrees warmer than today.
357 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022 High pressure will allow for dry conditions overnight.
439 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022 A large area of high pressure will keep rain-free weather over the region for most of the weekend.
However, daytime temperatures should be another degree or two warmer than today. The warmer temeratures should overcome the decrease in dewpoints, keeping peak heat indices above 105 degrees F.
555 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION Showers and a few thunderstorms associated with a passing upper level low pressure system will diminish and end from west to east this evening.
Key Messages: - Some severe storms are possible tomorrow as a cold front moves through - A break from the heat as cool and dry air move in behind the front - The heat returns for the end of the week Early this afternoon, northeast Kansas remains on the northern periphery of the upper-level ridge. Tomorrow, an upper-level trough and surface cold front will swing through the central Plains. Conditions rapidly improve behind the front as ample cloud cover should keep temperatures cooler and northerly winds bring in more dry air. Model guidance varies wildly on the timing/placement of the cold front, but a general consensus has the front near the I-35 corridor by the afternoon hours.
these cells have had a hard time taking off as they are just behind the cold front and are setting within an area of generally weak shear. Cap should also continue to erode with and advancing cold front.
916 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022 High pressure will allow for dry conditions overnight.
551 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022 High pressure will dominate the area through the weekend.
339 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022 Showers and thunderstorms developed this morning as the mid-level trough discussed over the past several days began to track eastward across Utah. Satellite and RAP 500 mb analysis indicated the trough extended roughly along a KRWL to KCNY line 21Z. Storms continued to fire along and ahead of the trough where mid-level lift was maximized in the unstable airmass. Models were in good agreement with the progression of the trough and all indicated its axis will shift east of the Continental Divide by 00Z/Sat.
Showers and thunderstorms developed this morning as the mid-level trough discussed over the past several days began to track eastward across Utah. Satellite and RAP 500 mb analysis indicated the trough extended roughly along a KRWL to KCNY line 21Z. Storms continued to fire along and ahead of the trough where mid-level lift was maximized in the unstable airmass. Models were in good agreement with the progression of the trough and all indicated its axis will shift east of the Continental Divide by 00Z/Sat.
734 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022 High pressure centered off the Mid Atlantic coast will provide a dry weekend with seasonably warm temperatures.
Broad upper ridging across the western Gulf states has nosed southeast over the Florida Peninsula, with height rises noted 700-500 mb with a half-degree C of warming. Indeed some moderate cumulus was noted just before sunset in the still- dry cloud line over the lower Keys.
730 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022 High pressure will dominate the area through the weekend.