Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 333 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017/ Models in pretty good agreement with bringing the cold front into north Georgia this evening and through central Georgia later tonight. This will continue the rest of this afternoon as the cold front moves into the northern part of the CWA. 17 Minor adjustments to late period pops as models indicate gradual moisture return in wake of early week ridging.
Excessive heat will continue across the lower valleys of Yavapai County and the Grand Canyon through Sunday.
1013 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 A large semi-stationary upper trough across central Canada will keep a near daily threat of showers and a few thunderstorms across the area through much of the upcoming week. The highest threat of showers should occur during the afternoon and early evening hours. Highs trend cooler per 925-850 mb thermal progs and higher coverage of afternoon clouds.
737 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 High pressure will attempt to build into the mid- Atlantic region tonight and Sunday.
/issued 406 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017/ (Tonight and Tomorrow) Cold front has moved south of the area today, with much cooler temperatures today in its wake.
Latest surface observations suggest that a cold front continues to with scattered showers/thunderstorms expected to impact southern portions of Cullman/Marshall/Dekalb counties until 20-21Z. between a 500-mb subtropical high centered north of the Bahamas and a vort max tracking through the Great Lakes -- within a broader longwave trough. The forecast area will remain beneath a broad cyclonic flow regime on Sunday/Sunday night, although mid-level winds are expected to veer more to the west-northwest as the subtropical ridge weakens and retreats to the east while the Great Lakes vort max dampens and ejects northeastward into New England. At the surface, a reinforcing dome of high pressure will build southeastward across the Great Plains on Sunday. and this should translate to high temps a few degrees cooler than those observed today.
will see a quiet night with high pressure building in. This high will bring in a dry. Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 83 59 83 / 10 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 80 58 80 / 0 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 60 81 56 80 / 0 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 78 53 77 / 0 10 10 10.
Expect another relatively cool night, though a few degrees warmer at most locations as the airmass moderates.
1040 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017 Dry cool northwest flow aloft will gradually warm and pick up some Pacific moisture with time as a large high pressure ridge over the great basin moves north into the region.
Holding onto the highest pops over the northern portion of the forecast area where deeper moisture is in place and more in line with surface front.
619 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017 Long wave trough positioned over eastern North America will dominate the sensible weather across the region through the short term.
Otherwise, a cold front was slowly working its way southward through Central Alabama. Farther south, additional convection has develop along and south of I-85, in an area ahead of a pre-frontal trof. The cold front was making its way slowly south through Central Alabama.
ACARS soundings show the cap weakening over the plains, this will help showers and weak storms form over the higher terrain and Palmer Divide area later this afternoon and push southeast into the early evening. Recent runs however have been keeping in the high terrain, signaling the plains remaining too capped. Look for slightly warmer temperatures Sunday which will help obtain low amounts of CAPE with the available moisture.
Sunday will be dry once again with temps a few degrees warmer than today.
MVFR conditions will develop with showers and thunderstorms Sunday as seabreeze convection develops along the lower Texas coast and moves inland. /issued 214 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017/ Short Term (Now through Sunday night): The change in the weather pattern has begun to evolve this afternoon as the H5 ridge gets pushed westward by the inverted trough moving into the western Gulf. Morning sounding still showed that moisture was held down in the lowest roughly 9000 feet, so shower activity has remained widely scattered. Sunday will bring a more numerous showers as the moisture continues to sweep inland, and begins to infiltrate into the higher levels of the atmosphere.
The unseasonably cold airmass in place throughout the region will remain through Sunday, as steering winds aloft continue to direct cool/dry high pressure southeastward out of Canada.
VFR conditions are expected through the period as weak high pressure is located to the north.
Highs will be several degrees cooler throughout. Seasonably strong large scale upper trough will settle over the Eastern U.
748 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 A large semi-stationary upper trough across central Canada will keep a near daily threat of showers and a few thunderstorms across the area through much of the upcoming week. The highest threat of showers should occur during the afternoon and early evening hours. Highs trend cooler per 925-850 mb thermal progs and higher coverage of afternoon clouds.
918 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 High pressure will attempt to build into the mid- Atlantic region overnight and Sunday.
Currently, the small but potent upper low that moved through our area early this morning was near the MN/WI border. This weaker cold front is forecast to enter northern ND late tonight and sweep southeast across the state Sunday morning.
Cooler and drier air continues to invade the region in the wake of the cold frontal passage last night. A reinforcing shot of cool air will occur Sunday night as another cold front moves across the area.
Temperatures are running cooler than yesterday especially across inland areas which are running as many as 9 degrees cooler than yesterday at this time. As of 1 PM, inland area readings ranged from the mid 70s to mid 80s, with even the warmest areas (Fort Hunter Liggett and Parkfield) in the mid to upper 90s, also 8-10 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. The cooling trend is forecast to persist into Sunday as an upper trough approaches the coast, strengthens the onshore flow and ramps up the marine layer. SFO Bridge Approach.
505 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017 Northwest flow continues across the northern Plains today as the broad trough drifts eastward over the MS valley. Upper ridging is building across the western third of the CONUS. Northwest flow will persist into Sunday along with cooler temps. although warmer than today.
Templer Previous discussion - Clear skies and light winds overnight will fuel efficient radiational cooling and so in keeping with persistence from observations occurring in previous nights the low temperatures were trended a little below guidance. Dry and warm weather conditions are expected on Sunday with high pressure over the area as the upper ridge axis moves east. Eastern Montana will be positioned under northwest flow aloft on the leading edge of the ridge with rising heights.
On Sunday these moisture sources from the South and approaching cold front from the Northwest will moisten across all of NE FL and SE GA and expect scattered to numerous showers and storms across entire region.
In fact, GOES-R VIS is showing NW flow horizontal rolls in what looks like a relatively stable boundary layer from just north of the coastal counties to the cold front itself (over our interior). Despite all of this, we DO however expect to have lingering scattered deep convection which may produce brief heavy rainfall, along and ahead of the cold front as it moves further into our area during the remainder of the afternoon and evening (especially southward to the coast).
Better southerly boundary layer moisture/theta-e transport should favor at least some surface cape near our area in the high Plains with any potential storms being able to develop east into the steep mid level lapse rates.
1120 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 High pressure will attempt to build into the mid- Atlantic region overnight and Sunday.
1025 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 A cold front will move southeast across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia this evening and then settle southeast of the region overnight. Drier and cooler air will start to spread in from the northwest through the day on Sunday, with these conditions persisting through much of the week. Moisture will slowly return around an offshore ridge of high pressure toward the end of the week. Showers have been along a frontal zone ahead of a broad eastern CONUS upper trough. Front and trough will continue southeastward with relatively cool and dry northerly flow behind the front. As Sunday afternoon will be clear, highs may actually warm into the mid and upper 80s in piedmont areas, which would be warmer by a few degrees than the highs today which had cooler temps.
616 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017 Weak cold front will quickly progress through the CWA overnight tonight. With a mostly clear sky for most of the area during a majority of the overnight hours and light winds in close proximity to the front, lows tonight should be seasonably chilly as temperatures bottom out in the low to upper 50s. Gosselin Somewhat amplified upper pattern that will be over the CONUS on Sunday night will turn zonal by midweek as trough over the Great Lakes moves off to the east and the ridge over the west coast dampens out.
815 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 A cold front will move southeast across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia this evening and then settle southeast of the region overnight. Drier and cooler air will start to spread in from the northwest through the day on Sunday, with these conditions persisting through much of the week. Moisture will slowly return around an offshore ridge of high pressure toward the end of the week. Showers have been along a frontal zone ahead of a broad eastern CONUS upper trough. Front and trough will continue southeastward with relatively cool and dry northerly flow behind the front. As Sunday afternoon will be clear, highs may actually warm into the mid and upper 80s in piedmont areas, which would be warmer by a few degrees than the highs today which had cooler temps.
The Northland will remain under the influence of an upper-level trough tonight and through the day Sunday. A mid-level trough with a concentrated positive vorticity maxima will translate to the east- southeast this evening away from the region, and the low-level band of frontogenesis will also begin to pivot to the west. However, there could be some occasional lightning and small hail possible for Sunday, given the low freezing level. With the cold air advection and abundant cloud cover, temperatures will once again be well below seasonal average for Sunday, with high temperatures ranging from the upper 50s over the BWCA and Minnesota Arrowhead regions, to the lower to mid 60s over north-central Minnesota and across our southern areas, including northwest Wisconsin. Upper troughing is forecast to move into the central CONUS late in the week into Saturday.
With convective temperatures remaining in the low to mid 80s over the weekend and with such a saturated airmass lingering over SE TX, the ingredients are there for shower and thunderstorm development.
910 PM PDT Sat Jun 24 2017 Hot weather will continue in the Inland Empire, Mountains and deserts Sunday with high pressure aloft. The marine layer will keep coastal and western valley areas cooler.
1145 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017 Weak cold front will quickly progress through the CWA overnight tonight. With a mostly clear sky for most of the area during a majority of the overnight hours and light winds in close proximity to the front, lows tonight should be seasonably chilly as temperatures bottom out in the low to upper 50s. Gosselin Somewhat amplified upper pattern that will be over the CONUS on Sunday night will turn zonal by midweek as trough over the Great Lakes moves off to the east and the ridge over the west coast dampens out.
A weak cold front will move across the area on Saturday which will bring high temperatures down 10-15 degrees compared to today and there could be a slight increase in moisture across the region.
High pressure will continue to build into the Lake Superior region today, resulting in increasing east winds. The strong east winds will bring cooler temperatures to areas surrounding Lake Superior, with some areas not getting out of the lower 30s. While high pressure dominates much of the Great Lakes region, an area of low pressure will bring snow to much of western and southern Minnesota tonight and Saturday.
Still expect widespread low to mid 30s with some sub freezing over the mountains but frost looks to be limited given continued very low dewpoints.
Orange, Seminole and Brevard counties are most likely to see Red Flag conditions based on the higher ERC values so the Warning looks good there.
A deep and cold upper low will continue to affect weather conditions across the Pacific Northwest through tonight. This low will slowly weaken during this period.
917 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018 Low pressure will continue to shift off to the east today and tonight. A trough of low pressure will will drop south through the region on Saturday and saturday night.
619 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018 To begin this forecast the central United States is under the influence of large-scale ridging with troughing along the west and east coasts. This light rain, which for the most part isn't reaching the ground, is the result of modest warm-air advection underneath the main ridge axis. Mid-level ridging returns temporarily late Saturday night before southwest flow aloft begins, signaling the beginning of a fairly cloudy and unsettled weather pattern.
Along with the warmer temperatures (lower 80s inland and hanging on to the mid to upper 70s at the coast) will come increasing cloud cover. While the onshore flow persists, mid/upper level ridging will flatten and move off to the east as a western U.
Broad upper level trough was over the eastern Pacific and western US. An upper level ridge was over the Northern Plains. Thermal ridge will shift east across the area today and produce warm advection precip today and tonight. Departing snow in the east with light freezing rain or rain west of the valley possible Saturday as winter storm impacting region in the short term pulls out of the area.
The upper ridge in place over the region early today gets pushed east as a short wave trough moves through the central Rockies and across the central high plains region this evening. Weak short wave ridging will be in place aloft in the wake of the exiting short wave trough on Saturday with the upper flow sags south and becomes more southwesterly as a trough deepens over the west.
Up north a cold front over northwest Utah will also produce showers and storms with snow at the higher elevations today. The cold upper level trough along the Pacific Northwest coast will move east and impact mainly northern and western Utah and southwest Wyoming this weekend.
Otherwise, with increasing warmth in the low-levels and slow increase in mid-high level moisture, expect above normal highs in the mid-upper 70s with increasing mid-high level clouds.
strong high pressure over Ontario will extend southwards to provide us with fair dry weather through the weekend. this airmass should only support max temps in the mid 30s for the lake plains with chillier readings across the higher terrain. strong high pressure will nose south across our forecast area. Highs will only be in the lower to mid 30s with lows Saturday night ranging from the teens to lower 20s.
920 AM MST Fri Mar 23 2018 A weak weather system will move off to the east today with just a few lingering morning showers expected over the higher terrain east of Phoenix.
915 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018 Little adjustments to forecast package based on latest observations, otherwise, high pressure remains well in control of the region with mostly clear skies, and a little warmer temperatures this afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows upper level ridge over the central United States and upper level trough over the western United States. Latest 07z surface analysis indicates high pressure over northern Minnesota and and northern Wisconsin with the metars reporting temperatures in the teens to lower to middle 30s across the area.
South winds will gust to near or above 25 knots at times today into this evening, but will diminish across northeast Oklahoma late tonight as a cold front approaches. There may be some spotty shower/isolated thunderstorm activity later today and tonight across eastern sections as a cold front pushes across the area. Poor fire weather conditions will persist into Saturday as drier air arrives and north winds kick up behind the cold front.
The upper level ridge axis overhead will shift further east of the central U. High temperatures will hit the low 80s near the coast to the upper 80s across the Brush Country today, and come in a few degrees warmer tomorrow.
High pressure over the southeast U. S and organizing low pressure over High Plains will bring southerly winds and increasing RH/thte for tonight and Saturday. Will maintain dry forecast as axis of upper ridge should remain just west of forecast area.
and Saturday Persistent Hudson Bay high pressure will continue to bring dry weather through the weekend. East to northeast winds will also increase as low pressure tracks to our south.
614 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018 Satellite imagery this morning shows a large ridge axis extending north across the front range of the Rockies, leaving a northwest flow in place across our section of the Plains. This will help enhance the return flow from the Gulf today, sharpening up a warm front wallowing across western Missouri, likely bringing a lot of cloud cover to our region as isentropic upglide ramps up across the warm front this afternoon, along with the potential for some drizzle. Showers will be rather wide spread across northern Missouri later tonight as the trough moves across the Plains, though heaviest rainfall amounts will likely be in areas of northeast to eastern Missouri late tonight into Saturday morning.
1237 PM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018 Building high pressure should maintain mainly dry weather through the weekend. Low pressure passing well south of the region could bring a rain or snow shower to the southern border of the forecast area. Models continue to trend southward with Saturday-Saturday night low pressure.
Otherwise strong high pressure over Ontario will extend southwards to provide us with fair dry weather through the weekend. this airmass should only support max temps in the mid 30s for the lake plains with chillier readings across the higher terrain. strong high pressure will nose south across our forecast area. Highs will only be in the lower to mid 30s with lows Saturday night ranging from the teens to lower 20s.
Low pressure anticipated to dive further south along the Pacific coastline today and eventually move inland and across the Pacific Northwest.
746 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018 Aviation A dry forecast is expected right through the weekend with a persistent area of high pressure situated from Ontario and Quebec into the Great Lakes. The high will bring fair weather and seasonable temperatures. Highs the next few days will generally be in the lower 40s.
Rain and mountain snow was affecting much of the area overnight as a warm front lifted north and east through the region. High temperatures will range from the 50s in the west today, to the lower 40s in the east, with 40s and 50s for highs on Saturday.
A large Pacific storm system will continue to move inland for unsettled and cooler conditions through the upcoming weekend. Large upper low off the PacNW coast continues to spin in place overnight/this morning, while pronounced upper ridging persists over the Dakotas and Saskatchewan. With neither feature moving much, an upper disturbance with surface warm front continues to produce a persistent area of rain, with wet snow mainly north of US Highway 2 toward the Canadian border. This precipitation will end from west to east this morning as some drying moves in behind the exiting disturbance and the downstream ridging begins to move east. The greatest shower coverage may end up being from Bozeman to Lewistown where the low/mid level flow is more convergent.
Elsewhere, temperatures were warmer with readings in the upper 30s to mid 40s under thickening mid level cloud cover. Cloud cover will limit highs to the low to mid 50s. Periods of rain will be likely tonight through Saturday as the frontal zone hangs over the area and a low pressure system moves along the zone.
809 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018 High pressure will be over the area today with dry conditions. The ridge will move off the Southeast Coast Saturday with a warm front and showers moving in to the north.
As low pressure tracks across the Ozarks into western Kentucky, colder air will gradually get drawn southward.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 46 64 54 / 10 50 70 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 41 55 47 / 10 90 90 80 Oak Ridge, TN 55 42 54 46 / 10 100 90 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 35 45 37 / 0 70 100 80.
Sunny skies are working with increasing southerly flow to bring around seasonal temps to the area, with western areas of the forecast area seeing longer southerly flow and temps a bit warmer than eastern portions of the area. Dry northwest flow continues aloft as an upper ridge over the Great Plains begins to flatten and push east over the local area. With cool north winds ending and onshore flow returning, a warming and moistening trend begins as temperatures reach the low to mid 70s across much of the area today and only dip into the low to mid 50s tonight.
Some lightning strikes occurring across portions of Nevada, northwest Arizona into Utah, just upstream of the 500mb trough. North of the warm front, elevated instability will exist across portions of southwest into central Nebraska. Clearing skies across the west and southwest overnight behind the cold front for lows in the low to mid 30s, with upper 30s across the southeast zones. Ridging aloft will dominate the weather Saturday ahead of a long wave trough digging south across the western CONUS.
Broad troughing remains over the eastern half of the country with ridging to our west. At the surface, high pressure remains over the southeast, with a low-level northerly flow over the forecast area. As heights rise a bit, we will see our high temperatures go up by several degrees compared with yesterday, topping out in the lower to mid 70s.
Surface analysis this morning places a warm front over portions of Southern Arkansas and Southern Mississippi. By this afternoon the warm front should be situated from Northeast Arkansas to Northeast Mississippi. The warm front will become stationary near the KY/MO borders with the best chances for rain along the front and north. Some instability works into the area ahead of the cold front on Saturday so a few thunderstorms are possible. mainly Saturday afternoon and evening along the cold front.
640 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018 Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows upper level ridge over the central United States and upper level trough over the western United States. Latest 07z surface analysis indicates high pressure over northern Minnesota and and northern Wisconsin with the metars reporting temperatures in the teens to lower to middle 30s across the area.
The morning local sounding showed the low level breezes are slowly turning more towards the N/NE. But, because the latest hour has not shown a hint of that starting, nor any evidence yet on the low level VWP loop, will let the early morning zone issuance ride for a few more hours.