Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Surface analysis early this morning places a cold front from Lake Erie back through Southern Illinois, Southern Missouri, and into Northern Oklahoma. Otherwise, the nearest rainfall is over Southern Missouri along the cold front. As of 3 AM CDT, a humid airmass remains in place across the Mid-South with temperatures mostly in the lower 70s and surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Short term models including Convective Allowing Model solutions (CAMs) indicate a potential for showers and thunderstorms across the Mid-South as the aforementioned cold front slowly sags south into the Lower Mississippi Valley while Tropical Depression Nicholas will move slowly east across Louisiana and Southern Mississippi. The cold front will dissipate over the area on Thursday with rain chances diminishing somewhat as the tropical moisture shifts south of I-40 and the upper level trough moves away from the region.
By Thursday morning, a compact 500mb trough rotating around the perimeter of upper ridging over the Desert Southwest is progged to cut off over North Texas. In terms of sensible weather, this upper weakness will not be overly significant as it competes with the influence of building ridging to our west over AZ and NM.
1101 PM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021 A cold front will settle southeast through the Ohio Valley tonight and Wednesday.
1213 AM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021 Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to start early this morning with a crossing cold front. As of midnight, an eastward moving line of thunderstorms, near or just ahead of a cold front, extend from the St. The highest chances of severe storms are generally east PIT, where FROPA timing should be later in the day. A srn stream trough is expected to drift northward towards the Mid Atlantic region Thursday, as low level ridging builds across the Ern Great Lakes region. Mainly dry weather is then expected Thursday night as the low level ridge strengthens across the Upper Ohio Valley region.
351 AM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021 Clouds will decrease from northwest to southeast today as a cold front exits the region. Cooler and less humid conditions can be expected today with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
326 AM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021 High pressure extending into the region from offshore will weaken over the next couple of days as moisture increases from the Gulf Coast Region. Further north, a cold front was extending from northeast Illinois through Missouri into southern Kansas. Meanwhile, over our area high pressure remains in control but is expected to weaken today.
The region will be between a developing area of low pressure in an inverted trough to the southeast Today, and Tropical Depression Nicholas near the LA coast. Moisture will push east along a warm front extending from Nicholas Today. Weak ridging will be over eastern counties between the two low pressure features. Convective activity will decrease tonight, with loss of diurnal heating, but some activity will persist through the night due to the warm front. While the low off the Atlantic coast will move more toward the northeast Thursday afternoon, the remants of Nicholas may move very little with warm front continuing to lay across area.
Cooler highs in the lower to mid 80s are expected in central Kansas where clouds may linger into the afternoon. Relatively high dewpoints will prevent temperatures from falling below the 60 to 65 range tonight, except for perhaps some upper 50s at the higher elevations of western Hamilton county. A warming trend will commence Thursday as lee troughing persists in the lee of the Rockies.
High fire danger for all of NE Montana today, temperatures will A cold front pushing across the region today will lead to increasing northwest winds in the presence of dry fuels and low relative humidity. Look for markedly cooler temperatures on Thursday behind the frontal passage.
339 AM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021 A cold front arrives today with showers and thunderstorms, some possibly severe. A lifting and flattening upper level trough will move through the area today, pushing a surface cold front into the region. While this will provide showers and thunderstorms to much of the area, the eastern counties will miss out on some of the upper level dynamics as the trough lifts/flattens. With the upper trough lifting/flattening, the cold front will stall out over or just south of the region tonight.
SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): Deep South Texas will remain under a slight weakness in the mid to upper level ridge over the next couple of days, allowing for weak subsidence over the area. At the surface, high pressure will try to close in behind Nicholas, allowing winds to remain generally light and variable through the period. With fairly deep column moisture remaining over the northwest Gulf and at times over the coastal portions of our eastern counties, these areas will have a slight chance to chance of showers and thunderstorms through the period, with diurnal heating enhancing PoPs each afternoon across the Lower RGV.
(Today and tonight) An upper level ridge centered across the Desert Southwest/northern Mexico will continue to dominate the weather across West Central Texas. High temperatures will be near seasonal normals, in the low 90s.
Guidance indicates the low clouds will continue southwest through sunrise into the into the I-35 corridor between AUS and SAT as well into the Hill Country. There are some indications by the GFS and some ensemble members that the low level circulation of what is left of Nicholas could drift northwest tonight and Thursday. We have went warmer than the NBM for high temperatures today and Thursday for most areas, given the dry air in place, with temperatures running above normals for this time of year.
In response low pressure begins to build upstream over western and central ND and increasing southerly BL flow/WAA will help moderate temperatures and advect higher Tds over our CWA. Depending on cloud cover highs today should be warmer than yesterday, and there is potential for warmer locations to reach the 80 (NBM 75th percentile in our west). Thursday-Thursday night: A stronger trough passes north of the border and southwest flow deepens as the base the trough approaches and eventually moves over our CWA. An associated cold front and prefrontal trough may act as a focus for showers and thunderstorms as it moves west to east through the day and in response to cooling aloft very steep mid level lapse rates transition over our CWA.
High pressure will continue over the area but the upper level trough across the Great Lakes will push a cold front into the Ohio Valley by 12Z Wednesday morning.
1057 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 A cold front moved through the region dragging an area of showers in tow. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the cold front. The cooler air behind the front sets up for a fairly nice day Wednesday with highs only reaching the lower 80s. Southerly flow returns as the remnants of Hurricane Nicolas scamper off to the east enabling warmer and more moist air to advect northward keeping summer time vibes around for the next several days.
Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of, and eventually along, a cold front currently working its way through northeast Illinois. As the cold front approaches, shear will increase and storms can become organized into a squall line posing a damaging wind threat. High PWATs lead to a non-zero concern for heavy rainfall, paired with some parallel flow to the cold front. However, the cold front is overall expected to keep things moving along. Relief from the cold front is gone by Thursday as high temperatures return to the 80s, and the upper-air pattern picks up where it seemingly left off.
Cooler air will try to work its way in from the north-northeast tonight with lows ranging from the mid-upper 50s at Rolla-Salem to the low-mid 60s elsewhere.
348 AM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021 Southeast Michigan lies immediately downstream of an inbound mid level trough axis early this morning. Definitively drier post- frontal environment now noted within modest northwest flow, although higher magnitude deep column drying will await the passage of the trough axis and increasing diurnal mixing later today. Generally benign weather conditions tonight and Thursday as high pressure builds across the region with the backdrop of gradually increasing geopotential heights.
1127 PM MDT Tue Sep 14 2021 Current satellite imagery showed a few areas of scattered to broken clouds in favored areas over the higher terrain of central Colorado. As previously mentioned, a brief area of high pressure will move into the CWA in the short term.
This high was providing clear skies across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. For today, the high pressure system will move quickly east across the Upper Mississippi River Valley and into the Great Lakes by this evening. This high provide mostly sunny skies through the day.
303 AM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021 An upper trough will track east and south across the Panhandles today and then into western Oklahoma by late today and this evening. The NAM and GFS hinting at the possibility for some convection to develop today and also tonight as the upper trough or closed upper low remains in or close to the Panhandles.
255 AM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021 High pressure centered over the Missouri River Valley was providing mostly clear skies and seasonably cool conditions across the area early this morning. Temperatures were mostly in a range from the mid 50s to around 60 with dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s. These clouds were streaming off showers and thunderstorms occurring along yesterday's cold front which stretched from southern KS across Mo into southern IL. Quiet weather will continue today through tonight as high pressure passes through the area. Tonight, clear skies and continued weak wind fields behind the high departing to the east will allow temperatures to cool into the 50s and possibly into the upper 40s in northwest Illinois.
The cold front is ill-defined but based on dew points and weak wind shifts appears to now stretch from southern IN to the south of St. Louis area apparently in response to large scale forcing associated with an upstream short wave trof centered in the southeast KS/southwest MO area. Heights aloft will already begin rising from west to east across the area during the afternoon as a result in the wake of the trof. Heights will continue to rise weakly tonight into Thursday as a weak upper high slides eastward from the Plains into the middle MS Valley. On Thursday the influence will the easterly component to the surface flow will maintain the lower dew points and lower humidity, while the weak height rises aloft and warming aloft result in a moderation of high temperatures upward to above normal levels.
The main concern Wednesday/Wednesday night will be return flow and the depth of the moisture as the low level theta-e ridge (800-700MB) moves across Minnesota, and western Wisconsin. Warm, moist air will be advected northward across the region through the day ahead of an approaching cold front. Ample CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg along with favorable lapse rates and shear of 35+ kts will be in place ahead of the aforementioned cold front.
As this low pulls away, deep moisture has exited the UP, but there are some instability showers and light drizzle lingering. Despite some cooler air aloft moving in, clear skies should allow enough of an inversion to develop to calm winds down tonight. The weak isentropic ascent associated with a weak warm front looks to lift northeast through MN. By Thursday, increasing moisture advection within the WAA regime ahead of an approaching cold front will support a warmer day with highs in the mid-upper 70s.
1208 AM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021 (This evening through Wednesday) Mostly clear, warm and dry the next 24 hours with weak northwest flow aloft and weak ridging at the surface. Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid 60s with highs Wednesday around 90.
(This evening through Wednesday) Mostly clear, warm and dry the next 24 hours with weak northwest flow aloft and weak ridging at the surface. Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid 60s with highs Wednesday around 90.
Cooler and drier will be the story across the region today with highs expected to be in the low to mid 80s.
337 AM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021 (Issued 337 AM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021) Today through Thursday: High pressure will continue to build into the area today, bringing plenty of sunshine and lighter winds to southern Wisconsin. Temps should be near normal today, turning a tad cooler in the east in the afternoon as a lake breeze moves inland. Southerly winds will pick up Thursday, as the high departs to the east and low pressure approaches from the west.
A weak cold front is located to our north, extending roughly from Wichita, to St Louis, to Detroit. TS Nicholas will drift east overnight while an upper trough pushes through the Great Lake. This will send a cold front to near the KY/MO border by Wednesday morning. Meanwhile toward morning some precip associated with the approaching cold front may sneak into northern areas of the Mid-South. The Mid-South will be sandwiched between a cold front and the remnants of Nicholas on Wednesday. The Mid-South may be a bit of a lull on Thursday as the surface front dissipates and the associated upper trough lifts out.
435 AM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021 CIMMS mean-layer analyses place a broad ridge complex across the western North Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico. A weakness in the ridging is noted over the Bahamas and north of Hispaniola, where a mid-upper level trough axis and an undulation in the easterlies are contributing to unsettled weather. The 00Z KKEY RAOB sampled falling heights at all SGLs, highlighting the weakening of the low-level gradient and the approach of the upper trough axis apparent on water vapor imagery. The NHC gives this system high chances for development into a tropical cyclone as it stays east of the Bahamas and Florida. This may be exacerbated by the higher than normal tides this morning and Thursday morning.
A closer look at the surface charts indicates a cold front extending from the Great Lakes area thru MO and into southern KS.
Today Through Thursday Night A cold front approaches the Arkansas/Missouri border on Wednesday.
Winds and temperatures will increase tomorrow ahead of a cold front. Gusty winds will develop Wednesday afternoon ahead of a dry cold front. Temperatures will be a couple degrees warmer ahead of the front. The front will move through Wednesday night, followed by 5-10 degrees cooler temperatures on Thursday.
Behind this line, but just ahead of the approaching cold front, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are also steadily crossing west-central zones. Overnight lows will range from the low 60s in the far northwestern. A cold front to the NW continues to approach central Indiana as of late this afternoon. For Wednesday, expect some showers/storms to linger in the morning across south central Indiana while drier/slightly cooler air filters in from the NW. Aloft, ridging to the SE will help to keep a mostly dry forecast for the end of this week while heat and relatively humid conditions return this weekend.
Again, this will generally south of the Highway 84 Corridor, with more likely areas of light to moderate rain, drizzle and fog north of Highway 84 after sunrise and enduring the remainder of the TAF Period. Our local airmass will continue to moisten from the west overnight, so that by tomorrow morning, a deep layer of saturated air will have developed, and this persists through Thursday morning when there is some slight deep-layer drying noted from the west, but not before excessive rainfall and potentially very significant flooding occurs, mainly closer to the coast and generally south of the Highway 84 Corridor.
However, there remains some uncertainty regarding the movement of the low as it opens into a broad trough. Additionally, added instability and cloud-cover will limit afternoon high temperatures to mainly the low to mid 80s areawide.
1040 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 An upper-level trough over the region will continue to propagate to the east into the overnight hours helping high pressure build overhead. As high pressure moves in, skies will clear out helping low temperatures drop into the low 40s to low 50s. High pressure will continue tomorrow, providing mostly sunny skies and slightly warmer temperatures with highs in the low to mid 70s.
Latest analysis shows a cold front over central IN/IL associated with low pressure over eastern Canada. At the upper levels, a trough is making its way through the middle part of the country towards the OH valley this morning. As the upper level trough moves into New England overnight into Thursday morning, the frontal boundary is expected to wash out over the area. Low temps will be in the low to mid 60s. On Thursday high pressure will be to our east, and the remnants of Nicholas will slowly move east across the deep south. This will be the result of a northward flux of tropical moisture associated with the remnants of Nicolas as it drifts across the lower Mississippi Valley.
This low level moisture will continue to move into the Victoria Crossroads this morning but expect clearing by this afternoon. Highs will be gradually warmer both days with the weak downslope but warming flow.
604 AM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021 (Today and tonight) An upper level ridge centered across the Desert Southwest/northern Mexico will continue to dominate the weather across West Central Texas. High temperatures will be near seasonal normals, in the low 90s.
A cooler and drier airmass is first to reach northwest Montana tonight, which will cause Thursday morning to be near to or below freezing. Thursday will be a cooler day in central Idaho and western Montana with breezy afternoon winds.
Current surface analysis places low over northern Alberta with trough dropping down along the lee of the Rockies, while high lingers over the central plains into the midwest. Upper level analysis places trough sliding through the midwest, while broad ridging noted over much of the western CONUS, though a potent short wave is noted pushing into the ridge over the Canadian Rockies into the Pacific northwest. Rather dry air is already in place, with even drier air advecting in as the trough pushes east. Southwesterly winds will switch westerly by mid-day with the approaching trough, and be on the increase. For tonight, cooler air starts to work into the area, while upper flow shifts southwesterly as aforementioned upper trough to the west broadens out and starts spreading easterly.
The region will be between a developing area of low pressure in an inverted trough to the southeast Today, and Tropical Depression Nicholas near the LA coast. Moisture will push east along a warm front extending from Nicholas Today. Weak ridging will be over eastern counties between the two low pressure features. Convective activity will decrease tonight, with loss of diurnal heating, but some activity will persist through the night due to the warm front. While the low off the Atlantic coast will move more toward the northeast Thursday afternoon, the remnants of Nicholas may move very little with warm front continuing to lay across area.
The region will be situated between high pressure to the east and a low pressure trough to the west today. The winds will be out of a southerly direction, and will usher warmer air into the region. The trough, and its associated frontal boundary, will reach the western CWA late tonight, then tracks across the rest of the CWA during the day Thursday. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 50s across north central South Dakota, to the lower 60s across south central and northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota.
717 AM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021 Latest analysis shows a cold front over central IN/IL associated with low pressure over eastern Canada. At the upper levels, a trough is making its way through the middle part of the country towards the OH valley this morning. As the upper level trough moves into New England overnight into Thursday morning, the frontal boundary is expected to wash out over the area. Low temps will be in the low to mid 60s. On Thursday high pressure will be to our east, and the remnants of Nicholas will slowly move east across the deep south. This will be the result of a northward flux of tropical moisture associated with the remnants of Nicolas as it drifts across the lower Mississippi Valley.
516 AM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021 The slow passage of a cold front through the day will produce showers and some gusty thunderstorms, especially from the Southern Tier to the Finger Lakes and North Country.
503 AM MDT Wed Sep 15 2021 08z surface analysis had high over KOAX and lee trough/developing warm front from central MT into central WY. Water vapour loop had upper trough over BC/AB with jet extending into the northwest CONUS. Today/tonight, upper trough moves into south central Canada pushing warm front through the CWA with trailing cold front dipping into eastern MT/WY overnight. Low level thermal ridge expands into the region. Thursday, cold front moves through the CWA. Highs Thursday will be in the 70s behind the cold front and 80s ahead of it.
The presence of a mid- level trough axis and steepening low level lapse rates should bring a SCT/BKN low end VFR diurnal cu field this afternoon. * Moderate for ceilings at or below 5 kft today Southeast Michigan lies immediately downstream of an inbound mid level trough axis early this morning. Definitively drier post- frontal environment now noted within modest northwest flow, although higher magnitude deep column drying will await the passage of the trough axis and increasing diurnal mixing later today. Generally benign weather conditions tonight and Thursday as high pressure builds across the region with the backdrop of gradually increasing geopotential heights.
600 AM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021 A cold front arrives today with showers and thunderstorms, some possibly severe. A lifting and flattening upper level trough will move through the area today, pushing a surface cold front into the region. While this will provide showers and thunderstorms to much of the area, the eastern counties will miss out on some of the upper level dynamics as the trough lifts/flattens. With the upper trough lifting/flattening, the cold front will stall out over or just south of the region tonight.
Recent water vapor imagery showing a broad, low-amplitude upper trough progressing east across the Great Lakes and central Plains regions, nearly out of Kansas at 07Z. An associated cold front was settling south into the southern Plains though elevated showers and thunderstorms linger not far to the south.
637 AM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021 235 AM CDT A cooler and much drier airmass continues to advect into the area early this morning in the wake of yesterday afternoons cold frontal passage. Temperatures tonight will be on the chilly side, with lows likely falling into the low to mid 50s for most areas, though some of the coldest spots could drop into the upper 40s. Slightly warmer temperatures into the low 80s are forecast for Thursday, though slightly cooler temperatures are again likely near the lake due to another lake breeze.
Low-level clouds will be possible through the period with the highest chances occurring during the morning hours today and tomorrow.
310 AM PDT Wed Sep 15 2021 Cooling trend through the remainder of the week as high pressure weakens. The strong ridge over NorCal will flatten today as a trough passes to the north across the PacNW.
(Issued 337 AM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021) Today through Thursday: High pressure will continue to build into the area today, bringing plenty of sunshine and lighter winds to southern Wisconsin. Temps should be near normal today, turning a tad cooler in the east in the afternoon as a lake breeze moves inland. Southerly winds will pick up Thursday, as the high departs to the east and low pressure approaches from the west.