Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures will trend warmer today, though remaining near seasonal normals for this time of year. A cold front will begin to move through the region on Wednesday, starting a change in the overall weather pattern for the rest of the week. The cold front will move through northwest Montana and central Idaho Wednesday morning, west central Montana Wednesday afternoon, and southwest Montana Wednesday evening.
ALONG THE SHEAR AXIS A WEAK CLOSED LOW WAS NOTED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE REGION WAS UNDER LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH 594 DKM HIGH EAST OF FLORIDA. 925 MB TEMPS WILL BE FROM 25-26C FOR DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. NIGHTLY LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. SO COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED BY MIDLEVEL CAPPING AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH OVER NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. VERY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED AGAIN TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY.
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 1 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEK FEATURING NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL CLOUDS EXTENDING INTO THE VALLEYS. THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN A BIT DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. BRINGING A LITTLE WARMER WEATHER BY LABOR DAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN RATHER STATIONARY ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH LITTLE VARIATION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME.
321 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015 Beginning to see some mid-level clouds developing over the northern half of the region, and the upper low shows up real nice on water vapor imagery over east, central Indiana. The NMM and ARW WRF runs develop some convection closer to the upper low before daybreak and then build it south down the Wabash Valley and then southwest through southern Illinois through the morning. The remainder of the short term portion of the forecast is dry, with high pressure at the surface and aloft through the period.
654 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
245 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015 RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS AREA BALANCES BETWEEN DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST AND RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WITH THE UPPER JET HAVING SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER/NORTHERN TIER STATES AND STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS/LOWS BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE PANHANDLES WILL GENERALLY STAY IN WEAK WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
239 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015 UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANGE IN ITS ORIENTATION THRU THE MID-WEEK PERIODS. THIS MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FOCUSED JUST EAST OF THE LEE SIDE SURFACE TROF OVER WESTERN KANSAS.
THE COLLAPSING FLOW ALONG WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR HAS LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. FORECAST - THE WEAK RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE KEYS THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE WEEK. THE LOWER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT TODAY INTO TONIGHT DUE TO THE LARGE SCALE RIDGING AND LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER.
132 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL USHER A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.
DAILY ROUNDS OF MOSTLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE.
550 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015 Generally quiet weather continues for the rest of the week with a persistent upper level trough over the West Coast and downstream ridging over the eastern U. This will keep the primary flow of Pacific moisture and precipitation chances streaming across the southwest states and into the High Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley.
THEN FEATURE CATCHES INTO SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF NORTHERN STREAM AS NRN RIDGE OF REX IS WEAKENS.
A weak cold front brings a reinforcing shot of cooler air Wednesday along with a chance for showers and gusty winds. A cooler and showery weather pattern will linger over the region late week and into the weekend. Winds in the more sheltered valleys have quieted down tonight but the ridgetops and exposed areas like the Waterville Plateau remain a bit breezy.
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS A LONG WAVE TROUGH CENTERED ALONG 130W WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. ANOTHER ONE IS POISED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH NEAR 131W AND HAS A DRIER AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH IT, AND YET ANOTHER ONE, THE STRONGEST BY FAR, NEAR 57N/141W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE LAST DISTURBANCE WILL DROP DOWN THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THUS DIGGING THE LONG WAVE TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING WEAK DYNAMIC LIFT TO ENTER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY IN COMBINATION WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES.
328 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK.
THE UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS HAS SHIFTED TO OUR WEST TODAY FROM E TX NE TO CENTRAL INDIANA. WARMER TEMPS FOR BOTH MAXES AND MINS CLOSER TO THE GFS MOS VALUES.
303 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THIS WEEK. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD REMAINS IN CONTROL PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME PLACES REACHING 90 DEGREES OVER THE LOWLANDS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING OVER OHIO. WENT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. STILL DON/T SEE ANY TYPE OF FOCUSING MECHANISM AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. CONTINUED WITH THE WARMER SIZE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS AND DRY GROUND.
122 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPEPR LEVEL RIDGE FROM NM INTO THE GREAT LAKES RESULSTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. SSW FLOW PREAVILED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN ALKES BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTRL LAKES AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SE CORNER OF MANITOBA INTO ERN SD. PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE MOISTURE AXIS AND WEAK TROUGH SAG INTO UPPER MICHIGAN.
RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING ANY MORE THAN ONE OR TWO DEGREES EACH DAY. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK WHEN THE RIDGE WILL HAVE ITS GREATEST INFLUENCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY FOR THE THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
251 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ONCE AGAIN TODAYS FOCUS WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHICH IS FOCUSING DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS OUR REGION. WEDNESDAY EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS FIXED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
400 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015 A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
342 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015 SKIES WERE CLEARING ACROSS MUCH OF THE DVN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING. THE RIDGE SHIFTS WELL TO OUR EAST AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH.
1103 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 /18Z TAFS/ West winds will increase over the next few hours as a Pacific cold front moves from west to east across the CWA. A Pacific cold front will move east through the area around noon shifting the winds to the west around 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. /issued 347 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015/ (Today and Tonight) As an upper trough axis passes over the forecast area today, an associated Pacific cold front will push south through the CWA. Afternoon highs will range from the mid 50s over the Big Country to the lower 60s along the Interstate 10 corridor.
315 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015 The short term period will be dry and relatively cold as a strong 500 mb trough crosses our region. For more information on the low cloud deck, refer to the aviation section below. Despite plenty of sun, temps will struggle to reach 40 degrees as the 850 mb thermal trough crosses our region.
A COLD FRONT AS OF THIS WRITING EXTENDED FROM EAST OF PIKESVILLE KY. WITH MID 40S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SMOKIES. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 59 34 50 29 / 30 10 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 56 34 45 27 / 40 10 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 57 33 47 28 / 40 0 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 57 35 42 23 / 60 10 10 10.
MET GUIDANCE IS COOLER AND MAV IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
132 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015 A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRIDAY ON GUSTY WEST WINDS. WV LOOP SHOWS DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH SW MID/UPPER FLOW OVER THE REGION. SURFACE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS WRN NC/WRN GA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO OUR SW THAT WILL BE MOVING UP ACROSS THE MIDLANDS/CSRA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AN EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL STAY UP IN THE LOW LEVELS TONIGHT. COLD FRONT ALONG THE COAST BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE COOL AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
/issued 517 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015/ Main concern for the day will be increasing winds between 16Z-18Z as a dry cold front turns winds to NW. A weak cold front will sink south through the area today with little fanfare aside from winds veering to the northwest and becoming a bit gusty for a few hours this afternoon, particularly across southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin. The northwest breeze will make it feel a bit cooler, though winds are expected to diminish quickly by late afternoon/early evening as the front becomes diffuse and settles south toward the Rio Grande Valley.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE WARM FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT THROUGH THE REGION AS THE PIEDMONT COLD AIR DAMMING WON OUT THIS TIME. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WAS CENTERED OVER CHATHAM/LEE COUNTIES AT 200 PM WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN ALONG A TRAILING BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO SCOUR OUT THE FOG/STRATUS UNTIL BETWEEN 700 AND 1000 AM FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE (~1035 MB) WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE FRI NIGHT/SAT. AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 30S SUN NIGHT. AS THE HIGH PROGRESSES OFFSHORE AND STRATUS MAY DEVELOP IN ASSOC/W THE ONSET OF LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WARM ADVECTION BY 12Z MON.
AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY. SPEEDS SHOULD DIE DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS EVENING. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE RED RIVER AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.
404 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015 A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRIDAY ON GUSTY WEST WINDS. WV LOOP SHOWS DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH SW MID/UPPER FLOW OVER THE REGION. SURFACE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS WRN NC/WRN GA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO OUR SW THAT WILL BE MOVING UP ACROSS THE MIDLANDS/CSRA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AN EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL STAY UP IN THE LOW LEVELS TONIGHT. COLD FRONT ALONG THE COAST BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE COOL AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
500 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015 COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING RAIN AND CLOUDS. AND EVENTUALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A LITTLE SNOW FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN IS GENERALLY ON THE DECREASE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
343 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015 COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING RAIN AND CLOUDS. AND EVENTUALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A LITTLE SNOW FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN IS GENERALLY ON THE DECREASE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FRIDAY AS 500 MB TROF AXIS PASSES AND COLDER 850 MB TEMPS ARE ADVECTED IN FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW PROVIDING LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL START TO RISE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST. THE SNOW WILL COME AS THE STORM/S WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN OREGON LATE TODAY AND WESTERN IDAHO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE VALLEYS LATE TODAY AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
1144 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 ALOFT: THE LONGWAVE TROF THAT WAS OVER THE WRN USA THE PAST 5 DAYS WAS SHIFTING E IN RESPONSE TO THE STORM OVER THE GULF OF AK. THIS TROF WILL MOVE THRU THIS EVE WITH NW FLOW AND RISING HEIGHTS IN ITS WAKE. THIS LOW WILL FILL AND DISSIPATE TODAY AS IT CONTS SE INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THE HIGH WILL TRANSLATE SE IN ITS WAKE AND EMERGING INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY DAYBREAK FRI. BUT THAT WILL ONLY REVEAL MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROF. SOME OF THIS COULD BRUSH THE WRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA FROM LEXINGTON- CAMBRIDGE-PLAINVILLE KS AS SOME FLURRIES.
135 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015 COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING RAIN AND CLOUDS. AND EVENTUALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A LITTLE SNOW FRIDAY MORNING.
/ISSUED 1040 AM EST THU DEC 17 2015/ THE COLD FRONT OVER ALABAMA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD. /ISSUED 322 AM EST THU DEC 17 2015/ WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
346 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015 (Tonight and Friday) A broad trough continues to affect the western 2/3 of the CONUS, continuing the pattern of dry and breezy conditions across West Central TX. A Pacific cold front extends south from this low pressure center and is approaching the Interstate 35 corridor this afternoon. Most of the CWA will fall into the mid/upper 20s, with the low-lying areas and river valleys again dipping into the lower 20s.
THE LOW CEILINGS. AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVE OUT OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. BY THIS EVENING THE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA TO BRING AN END TO SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES THAT HAD DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA HAVE RECOVERED BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A RIDGE OVER PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT EAST WHILE A RIDGE OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC BUILDS TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN US. AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS ON FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. EVEN WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE A LITTLE BIT ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.
AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST. UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN MOVING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE. WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ALONG WITH UNCOMFORTABLE DEW POINT READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS. A BROAD WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
207 PM MST THU DEC 17 2015 WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
326 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015 RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
/18Z TAF CYCLE/ SKC VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING.
WITH A SECOND SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO REINFORCE THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS LATER TONIGHT. WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING ALSO TAKES PLACE. CONTINUED CAA FRIDAY SHOULD MAINTAIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A SECOND SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS.
EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST.
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW TO THE SOUTHEAST BUT CLOUD COVER EXTENDS TO THE WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD IN THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
355 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WAS BRINGING A FAIR WEATHER DAY ACROSS SE TEXAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING A COUPLE OF COOL NIGHTS.
340 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEGUN TO WORK EAST INTO THE AREA OUT OF THE PLAINS AS THE NEXT TROUGH/LOBE OF VORTICITY ROTATES AROUND THE PARENT LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS TROUGH WILL SURGE SE THROUGH LOWER MI FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW AS COLDER TEMPERATURES KICK OFF SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS IN COMBINATION WITH BROADER MID LEVEL FORCING.
315 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
Strong 515 dm 500 mb low near the southern Manitoba and Ontario province line was embedded in deep upper level trof over the Great Plains which will track east into the MS river valley by 12Z/6 am Friday. As surface 1031 mb Canadian high pressure over the high plains and central Rockies to settled southward toward southern plains through Friday morning keeping IL in a seasonably cool nw wind flow. Cold front has passed well east of Illinois early this morning: however, a large area of low clouds behind the boundary is currently filtering into the area from the northwest.
1007 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SE ACROSS TX/LA THIS MORNING. /ISSUED 521 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015/ COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE CDFNT THAT CROSSED THE AREA ON WED. WITH LOWS SAT AM NEARING THE FREEZING MARK OVER INTERIOR SE TX AND CENTRAL LA.
CURRENTLY THE CWA IS LOCATED BETWEEN WEST COAST RIDGE AND DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES WITH RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW SUSTAINING TRANSPORT OF DRY BUT COOL AIR.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS. MODEL QPF SIGNALS STILL INDICATE THIS AREA EXPANDING SOUTHEAST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT RAIN DEPENDING ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS.
STRONG CAA THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM CHANGING MUCH FROM WHERE THEY CURRENTLY STAND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN SOME DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS PROGGED BY THE MODELS AND THE CLEARING CURRENTLY OVER MN.
1116 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015 Despite the presence of a larger meridional upper trough centered over Plains other than an extensive region of stratus expect benign but seasonably cold conditions today. With the low clouds likely to last for most if not all day the diurnal range should be limited to around 5F. However, a secondary area of high pressure will overspread the region Friday night. Overnight lows will dip into the middle/upper teens across the northern 1/2 of the CWA where winds will likely go calm as the center of the high passes overhead. As has been advertised for the past several days warm advection will reassert itself over the weekend as upstream upper level ridging builds and advances eastward.
1205 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015 H5 ANALYSIS TONIGHT HAS RIDGING UP THE EAST AND WEST COASTS OF THE CONUS. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT WITH A TANDEM OF CLOSED LOWS NOTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL CANADA. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SRN PLAINS OF OKLAHOMA AND SRN KS. A WEAK AREA OF MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER A GREATER SW TRAJECTORY OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACROSS SW NEBRASKA AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WOULD ALLOW FOR READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S DURING PEAK HEATING.
905 AM PST THU DEC 17 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A SUNNY. MILD DAY TODAY AND AN EVEN WARMER DAY FRIDAY.
WILL STICK WITH THE HIGH WIND WARNING WITH ENHANCED BLOWING SNOW WORDING AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO HOW SEVERE BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS WILL BECOME. ATTENTION TONIGHT THEN TURNS TO THE HIGH WIND EVENT THAT WILL OCCUR IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WY. CONFIDENCE WAS THERE TO UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS AND LARAMIE VALLEY. MENTIONED THE BLOWING SNOW THREAT IN THE HIGH WIND WARNING. THE BLOWING SNOW THREAT WILL END AFTER MIDDAY AS THE TEMPS MOSTLY WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING.
1248 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015 WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE REGION TODAY BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
256 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015 At 20Z upper level troughing remained over the central U. At the surface, high pressure had moved into the central and southern plains. Think there should be a lot more insolation and based on mixing the boundary layer to around 900MB, think highs should warm into the lower and mid 40s.
245 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015 WX MAP SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER E TX/AR/LA. THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND HIGH WILL MOVE THRU LATER THIS EVENING. DML NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KTS ACROSS THE 20-60 NM ZONES AGAIN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A SECONDARY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO TEXAS.
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH A LITTLE EAST OF IT OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND BIG BEND. STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND INTO THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL GIVE ENOUGH ENERGY TO DRIVE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO FLORIDA. GIVEN THE WARMER TRENDS IN THE MODELS, DONT EXPECT MOST EAST COAST METRO AREAS TO FALL BELOW 60F, WITH THE IMMEDIATE DOWNTOWN AREA STILL LIKELY IN THE MID 60S.
234 PM CST THU DEC 17 2015 THE COLD FRONT THAT GAVE THE AREA WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERNIGHT HAS NOW PASSED WELL OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS IN ITS WAKE. IN THE LOWER 50S AT 2PM. ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BY 18Z FRIDAY. A MUCH COOLER DAY IS IN STORE ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND MAYBE NEAR 50 IN SOME LOCATIONS.