Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1113 AM CST Fri Feb 19 2021 (Today and tonight) Very cold temperatures across the area this morning, with 3 AM readings mainly in the low to mid teens, although Abilene and Sonora are reporting five degrees and seven degrees respectively. We finally get to see the sun again today, along with temperatures climbing above the freezing mark as south to southwest winds return. Will undercut guidance temperatures a few degrees today, due to residual snow cover, with afternoon highs mainly in the lower 40s. Temperatures will be cold again tonight, but not as cold as what we are currently seeing this morning, with lows in the low to mid 20s.
High pressure will lead to another cold night with freezing temperatures expected for this one more night.
Most of the showers have ended this morning, but persist in the higher elevations of southwest Idaho - including the Boise Mountains where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through late this morning. A cold front will bring move through this evening, accompanied by valley rain/snow/graupel showers and mountains snow showers. Latest models depict the showers with the front will be strongest as the front moves through the Lower Treasure Valley and Boise Mountains, but weaken by the time the front reaches the Upper Treasure Valley late this evening. A cold front will cross the region this evening, into Oregon by 00z/Sat and into Idaho by midnight. Snow levels: 3000-4000 ft MSL dropping to valley floors behind a cold front tonight.
These isolated cumulus clouds are mainly tied to the 'warmer' locations near dark forested areas or along wooded river valleys. Weak high pressure builds into the area from the west overnight, with skies remaining partly cloudy to mostly clear. Under northwesterly upper-level flow with a weak ridge slowly progressing eastward into the region, Saturday afternoon temperatures are expected to rise into the 20s for much of the region.
1221 PM CST Fri Feb 19 2021 Key messages: - Temperatures will flirt with the freezing mark this afternoon.
929 AM CST Fri Feb 19 2021 Skies are sunny across the Mid-South this morning with temperatures ranging from the lower teens to lower 20s. Temperatures this morning are cold and that will not change much over the next 24 hours as much of the area will remain below freezing again today. High pressure will be in place over the area today and Saturday. some of the short rang guidance is pointing to freezing fog overnight into Saturday morning. Will have to watch this today as a Freezing Fog Advisory may be needed.
available moisture in the low levels should be sufficient for the formation of fog this evening and overnight.
1129 AM CST Fri Feb 19 2021 High pressure will keep clear skies and light winds over the area through the period. Lows will be warmer Sat night as well.
A meridional trough axis will cross the region today, but will be flattening out as it progresses eastward by this afternoon and evening. Latest sfc analysis places a broad area of high pressure stretching from TX to KS and into western MO. NW flow will continue CAA into the region today, which should limit temps from rising above freezing. Pretty substantial pattern change in store for the week ahead favoring much warmer temperatures.
/issued 646 AM CST Fri Feb 19 2021/ Quick early morning update to include the freezing fog developing across Childress county. /issued 323 AM CST Fri Feb 19 2021/ The highly anticipated warming trend officially begins today as our flow aloft becomes northwesterly. Afternoon winds will be somewhat breezy from the southwest as lee-troughing develops in NE NM.
High pressure in the Tennessee Valley will extend southward into the area with a dry northwest flow aloft. Despite the cooler temps on Saturday, full sunshine will be welcome for change!.
The upper trough is also clearing the area as well, so much more quiet trend has begun. GM Chattanooga Airport, TN 22 47 28 56 41 / 0 0 0 0 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 21 42 26 53 38 / 0 0 0 0 60 Oak Ridge, TN 20 42 25 53 38 / 0 0 0 0 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 19 39 24 51 35 / 10 0 0 0 50.
Temperatures will dip below freezing tonight but should warm to normal Saturday. Lingering mid level clouds are keeping temperatures in the low to mid 30s as of writing. We will be slow to warm this morning with most of the region not climbing above freezing until late this morning. Clear skies and light winds tonight will allow for efficient radiational cooling as temps once again fall below freezing. High pressure will begin to shift east overnight into Saturday which brings the return of onshore flow.
This is helping to raise temperatures and as of 10 am all official reporting sites have reached or exceeded the freezing mark. Today will be much warmer than the past several days but still close to 15 degrees below normal for maximum temperatures. with a few areas over lower Acadiana potentially reaching the lower 50s. The cold air mass will continue for one more night as high pressure will settle over the area. Hence, one last night of subfreezing temperatures will be forecasted with the potential for hard freeze north of I10 corridor.
It will be warmer today and cooler on Saturday as a low pressure system drops inland from the Pacific Northwest.
Upper level trough axis has reached Western Upper Michigan and Wisconsin this afternoon. Low level trough axis over Northern Michigan has also slid a bit farther east. Additional light diurnally-driven snow showers have developed across our SE CWA in an area of stronger convergence along the departing trough axis. Upper trough axis will slide thru our CWA tonight. Deep ridging will then build into the Western Great Lakes on Saturday. accompanied by drier and warmer low level air.
This line will continue to move ahead of the cold front and shift to the southeast through early afternoon. MVFR to IFR cigs will continue as a cold front approaches from the north. South winds this morning will become southwest in the afternoon as a cold front reaches the local waters from the northwest. Gusty showers and isolated storms along the cold front will move quickly offshore through the afternoon as boundary pushes southeast across the region.
Dew points are needed to warm above freezing for a more substantial melt of snowpack to occur. With that in mind, some water will still run across surfaces as temperatures warm above freezing this afternoon. Highs this afternoon will range from the mid 30s in southeastern Oklahoma and southwestern Arkansas to the upper 30s along the I-20 corridor in Louisiana to the lower 40s in central Louisiana and Deep East Texas.
1149 AM CST Fri Feb 19 2021 The area remains on the backside of an upper level trough through the day with broad and unfocused mid level warm advection. Low level temperatures just a bit warmer than yesterday so highs today likely to be another few degrees warmer, generally in the 20s this afternoon. If this shallow moist layer can deepen there would be a small chance for some very light freezing drizzle but for now just anticipating some fog. By Saturday a developing trough over the Rockies will begin to spread moisture and lift across the Western High Plains with some potential for precipitation possibly reaching south central SD by late afternoon.
232 PM EST Fri Feb 19 2021 Showers that were in place this morning along the cold front have pushed east with it beyond the CWA allowing us to finally begin to dry out after a wet week. Cooler air has filtered in, though certainly not with the same bite as the Arctic airmass from earlier in the week, and high temps today should reach into the 40s and 50s. Tomorrow we will see some ridging aloft build in and high pressure will dominate. Our cool airmass will modify a bit so high temps will be a few degrees warmer.
144 PM CST Fri Feb 19 2021 The latest upper trough has passed out of TX and high pressure ridge building in from the west.
/issued 929 AM CST Fri Feb 19 2021/ Skies are sunny across the Mid-South this morning with temperatures ranging from the lower teens to lower 20s. Temperatures this morning are cold and that will not change much over the next 24 hours as much of the area will remain below freezing again today. High pressure will be in place over the area today and Saturday. some of the short rang guidance is pointing to freezing fog overnight into Saturday morning. Will have to watch this today as a Freezing Fog Advisory may be needed.
Today will be the first day at or above freezing at Billings since Feb 5th. This will provide ascent for a chance of snow showers across the forecast area, with the main focus being in the high country. High temperatures will be warmer than they have been in for two weeks with highs reaching the mid to upper 30s over western and central zones, with lower 30s over the east.
301 PM EST Fri Feb 19 2021 Low pressure will continue to move to the east away from the area. High pressure and drier air will spread into the region tonight through the weekend with fair but seasonably cool weather.
Guidance from two of our go to sources has the snow evap in the lower atmosphere likely to FZFG 09-15Z at all sites. Dew points are needed to warm above freezing for a more substantial melt of snowpack to occur. With that in mind, some water will still run across surfaces as temperatures warm above freezing this afternoon. Highs this afternoon will range from the mid 30s in southeastern Oklahoma and southwestern Arkansas to the upper 30s along the I-20 corridor in Louisiana to the lower 40s in central Louisiana and Deep East Texas.
WAA aloft coinciding with a warm front crossing will shut off the flurries and allow some clearing Saturday night. A strong inversion will set up with temperatures slowly rising overnight across the high mountain ridges while the mountain valleys make a run toward zero.
Areas of light snow and blowing snow will affect much of the region today, as warmer air tries to move into the area.
Expect highs to range from the low 50s in southeast Alabama, up to the low 60s near Cross City, FL. Combined with the wind, apparent temperatures should settle into the low 20s in the coldest locations, and the low 30s further southeast.
235 PM CST Fri Feb 19 2021 (Issued 235 PM CST Fri Feb 19 2021) Tonight through Saturday night: Positive tilt upper trough axis with embedded vorticity maxima will shift out of the state this evening.
The bigger impact may be on highs for Saturday with MOS coming in quite a bit warmer than various blends. This may be where lingering snow cover comes more into play and will run with the cooler blend numbers at this time.
Elsewhere diurnal snow showers blossomed this afternoon as max temperatures warmed several degrees warmer than forecast under a cold core vorticty maxima. A hybrid cold front/lake-breeze feature locally enhanced convergence for the central UP near Lake Superior with snow showers capable of 1 mile visibilities and ~1/2 in/hr rates as was observed here at the office.
High pressure will bring a rapid warming trend through Saturday.
Went ahead, though, and include some patchy freezing fog in the SPS toward 12Z, just in case. Light freezing fog possible overnight.
A positively tilted trough will emerge over the central Plains and desert southwest Saturday evening with the main piece of energy in the KS/NE vicinity overnight.
The front will continue south and east into the Bahamas and Cuba and should pull the low clouds and showers with it.
/issued 144 PM CST Fri Feb 19 2021/ The latest upper trough has passed out of TX and high pressure ridge building in from the west.
519 PM CST Fri Feb 19 2021 Temperatures were approaching the freezing mark this afternoon with nearly full sun and surface winds becoming more southerly as high pressure shifts southeast of the forecast area. Saturday is expected to be slightly warmer with little to no cloud cover and increasing south winds.
Look for one more brutally cold night tonight as high pressure settles in directly overhead. However, Saturday may see several locations possibly top freezing for the first time in 10 days or more, as the high moves off to the east, and winds turn more southerly. If the Carbondale airport manages to stay below freezing for one more day on Saturday, it will tie the all time number of days below 32 degrees at 13, set back in the snowy and frigid winter of 1978.
650 PM EST Fri Feb 19 2021 Showers that were in place this morning along the cold front have pushed east with it beyond the CWA allowing us to finally begin to dry out after a wet week. Cooler air has filtered in, though certainly not with the same bite as the Arctic airmass from earlier in the week, and high temps today should reach into the 40s and 50s. Tomorrow we will see some ridging aloft build in and high pressure will dominate. Our cool airmass will modify a bit so high temps will be a few degrees warmer.
COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND THE Tonight- Sat. A cold front is moving through east central FL this afternoon.
It will be warmer today, but cooler on Saturday as a low pressure system drops inland from the Pacific Northwest.
/Issued 150 PM CST Fri Feb 19 2021/ Consecutive hours below freezing from the recent arctic airmass will end for all locations across the forecast area today. Areas of drizzle may develop Sat night but a non diurnal temperature trace is likely to limit the freezing drizzle potential.
One more night of freezing temperatures is expected as high pressure settles over SE TX. Will maintain the Hard Freeze Warning for the N-NW zones but models have trended a bit warmer for tonight. The rest of SE Texas will endure a short period of freezing temperatures tonight. Not real confident with regard to some patchy ground fog that could develop but the ECMWF, NAM soundings and SREF data support some freezing fog toward Saturday morning. The T/Td gap narrows considerably tonight and felt it was best to at least mention some potential for freezing fog over the northern half of the CWA in the weather grids. This will lead to warmer temperatures and a slight increase in moisture.
Despite the cloud cover temperatures have warmed above freezing at most locations and melting has occurred especially in areas that continued to receive more direst insolation. This light return flow may develop in the west close to sunrise and help produce patchy light freezing fog. Some of our upper delta counties may remain in the 30s but all sites should climb above freezing and bring and end to the long duration of subfreezing temperatures.
Strong northwest flow and subsidence in the wake of a longwave trough (which crossed the TN Valley earlier today) has contributed to sunny skies this afternoon. A rather tight temperature gradient still exists due to residual snowpack across the northwestern half of the local area, with current observations in this region still near or slightly below freezing, while readings across the southeastern portion of the CWFA are in the upper 30s-lower 40s. Skies should clear shortly after Midnight, allowing sufficient time for temperatures to drop into the lower 20s (SE) and 15-20 degree range across the lingering snowpack to the northwest. Some patchy/light freezing fog may develop over the snowpack and in larger river valleys between 9-13Z, and this has been indicated in the updated weather grids.
514 PM MST Fri Feb 19 2021 Allowed the High Wind Warning, and the Winter Weather Advisory for the North Snowy Range Foothills to expire at 5 PM.
622 PM EST Fri Feb 19 2021 Low pressure will continue to move to the east away from the area. High pressure and drier air will spread into the region tonight through the weekend with fair but seasonably cool weather.
355 PM MST Fri Feb 19 2021 Patchy freezing fog will be a concern once again tonight along the Republican River valley in southwest Nebraska and into Decatur, Norton, Graham and Sheridan counties in northwest Kansas. Moderating temperature trend will continue on Saturday as upper ridge axis moves across the area combined with breezy south winds at the surface. Expecting highs generally in the upper 40s, a bit cooler around McCook which may only reach the lower 40s. In addition to the precipitation, breezy to windy northwest winds will accompany the associated surface cold front.
Patchy fog could develop into Saturday morning, with partly cloudy skies and warmer temperatures Saturday afternoon. Saturday may start out with patchy fog or freezing fog again, due to sunrise producing some light melting on Friday. The rest of the day will see decreasing clouds from south to north, helping to push high temps toward the freezing mark for areas south of Springfield to Effingham.
41 Showers that were in place this morning along the cold front have pushed east with it beyond the CWA allowing us to finally begin to dry out after a wet week. Cooler air has filtered in, though certainly not with the same bite as the Arctic airmass from earlier in the week, and high temps today should reach into the 40s and 50s. Tomorrow we will see some ridging aloft build in and high pressure will dominate. Our cool airmass will modify a bit so high temps will be a few degrees warmer.
The vast majority of the region is expected to rise above freezing today with afternoon highs in the low to mid 30s across the east, and in the low 40s further west. Warmer (but still chilly) temperatures and ample sunshine will certainly allow some of the ice and snow to melt today. Patchy areas of freezing fog will be possible across far eastern counties overnight and early Saturday morning, as light winds allow surface temperatures to approach their respective dew points. A much warmer day is anticipated on Saturday with highs topping out in the 40s and 50s.
202 PM MST Fri Feb 19 2021 Water vapor imagery shows a trough off the Pacific Northwest Coast. This trough will quickly push into the Intermountain West by 12Z Saturday and across the Rockies Saturday night. The associated cold front will pull across the area late tonight and Saturday. Ahead of the trough a moist westerly flow will impact the far west tonight. As the trough and front pull across the area there will be chances of snow over the south and east of the Divide.
605 PM CST Fri Feb 19 2021 A warm front is currently pushing into western North Dakota. A chance of light snow is in the forecast tonight with warmer temperatures on Saturday. A north-south oriented warm front was across eastern Montana and approaching the western North Dakota border this afternoon. Saturday, a broad trough begins to dig through the Four Corners region, with mostly zonal flow across the Northern Plains.
Main update to tonight's forecast will be to add patchy freezing fog late tonight into Saturday morning for northeast Oklahoma. /Issued 150 PM CST Fri Feb 19 2021/ Consecutive hours below freezing from the recent arctic airmass will end for all locations across the forecast area today. Areas of drizzle may develop Sat night but a non diurnal temperature trace is likely to limit the freezing drizzle potential.
237 PM MST Fri Feb 19 2021 Patchy freezing fog will be a concern once again tonight along the Republican River valley in southwest Nebraska and into Decatur, Norton, Graham and Sheridan counties in northwest Kansas. Moderating temperature trend will continue on Saturday as upper ridge axis moves across the area combined with breezy south winds at the surface. Expecting highs generally in the upper 40s, a bit cooler around McCook which may only reach the lower 40s. In addition to the precipitation, breezy to windy northwest winds will accompany the associated surface cold front.
Partly cloudy skies today allowed for temperatures to rise above freezing and significant insolation on roadways had melted a portion of previously fallen wintry precipitation. Further, with the cover of snow/ice enhanced moisture will exist in the layer nearest the ground and could contribute to patchy instances of freezing fog tonight. Despite the cloud cover temperatures have warmed above freezing at most locations and melting has occurred especially in areas that continued to receive more direst insolation. This light return flow may develop in the west close to sunrise and help produce patchy light freezing fog. Some of our upper delta counties may remain in the 30s but all sites should climb above freezing and bring and end to the long duration of subfreezing temperatures.
553 PM CST Fri Feb 19 2021 (This evening through Saturday) This afternoon, warmer south to southwest low level/surface flow has returned to West Central Texas, bringing warmer temperatures to the region. As of noon, temperatures are 7-13 degrees higher than 24 hours ago, and highs today will be in the low to mid 40s. Expect overnight lows tonight/tomorrow morning in the low to mid 20s with some south breezes continuing. Saturday, expect continued warming as the 850 mb thermal ridge strengthens and south to southwest flow continues near the surface. Highs will be in the low to mid 50s with sunny skies.
Behind this ridge, the next trof is digging sewd into the Pac NW. Ahead of this midlevel trof, a sfc trof is being carved out in the lee of the Rockies. Temps are generally warmer than previous days, though some localized spots--especially just east of the foothills--remain fairly chilly due to weak upslope flow. Main story in the short term will be the positively tilted trof approaching the region tomorrow. Model consensus also favors the development of strong, deep fgen along the nwrn periphery of a TROWAL feature and a strengthening low-to-midlevel cyclone.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): Another cold night is expected, as the combination of clear skies and calm winds will result in substantial radiational cooling, allowing temperatures to fall below freezing across most of the area. As a result, a Freeze Warning is in effect from midnight tonight through early Saturday Morning across most areas, except for coastal Cameron and coastal Willacy counties, where temperatures are expected to remain above freezing. Temperatures Saturday night are expected to be significantly warmer, in the upper 40s across the northern Ranchlands, and lower to middle 50s elsewhere, as the southerly winds will help to prevent the temperatures from dropping as much.
Freezing fog will be possible near the KCDS terminal by Saturday morning. The bigger impact may be on highs for Saturday with MOS coming in quite a bit warmer than various blends. This may be where lingering snow cover comes more into play and will run with the cooler blend numbers at this time.
640 PM EST Fri Feb 19 2021 High pressure will build into the Tennessee Valley by Saturday providing dry but cold weather through the weekend.
502 PM EST Fri Feb 19 2021 Low pressure will track well south of the Gulf of Maine tonight then exit southeast of Nova Scotia Saturday.
402 PM EST Fri Feb 19 2021 A cold front will push across the Keys early this evening. Northwest and north winds behind the front will usher in cooler and drier air late tonight and Saturday.
222 PM MST Fri Feb 19 2021 Expect high temperatures to be even warmer on Saturday with readings on the lower deserts in the upper 70s.
Snow showers will continue to favor the higher terrain of western Montana and north central Idaho this afternoon and evening. Bursts of snow into the valleys will be possible, but with minimal accumulations due to temperatures generally above freezing this afternoon.
/issued Issued by National Weather Service San Juan PR/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): Another cold night is expected, as the combination of clear skies and calm winds will result in substantial radiational cooling, allowing temperatures to fall below freezing across most of the area. As a result, a Freeze Warning is in effect from midnight tonight through early Saturday Morning across most areas, except for coastal Cameron and coastal Willacy counties, where temperatures are expected to remain above freezing. Temperatures Saturday night are expected to be significantly warmer, in the upper 40s across the northern Ranchlands, and lower to middle 50s elsewhere, as the southerly winds will help to prevent the temperatures from dropping as much.
919 PM EST Fri Feb 19 2021 High pressure will build into the Tennessee Valley by Saturday providing dry but cold weather through the weekend.