Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
912 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY. SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST THRU THE SCIOTO VALLEY. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY WILL PRODUCE SOME WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. SHARP H5 TROF DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT BRINGING WITH IT A SECONDARY TROF. ALONG THIS TROF THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE LATER PART OF TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR SATURDAY AND CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT.
Widespread precipitation, windy conditions, and reduced ceilings/visibilities can be expected with a cold front passage Saturday morning. A weak and short-lived ridge of high pressure is building into the Northern Rockies this morning. This ridge will bring a warming trend with temperatures around 5 degrees above normal. A bit of instability this afternoon could support a few showers over the higher terrain, although these will probably be in the form of virga given the dry airmass near the surface. The developing West Coast weather disturbance will push a vigorous cold front across central Idaho late Saturday morning and through western Montana by mid-afternoon.
803 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND. BUT WILL END QUICKLY AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY.
/ISSUED 411 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015/ COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. LEAVING US TO DRY OUT BRIEFLY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. COOLER AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL MAKE FOR NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
1049 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015 UPDATE/MARINE A DEEPENING SPRING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEPARTING THE AREA TODAY BUT AS IT DEPARTS EXPECT STRONG WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
735 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015 AVIATION A DEEPENING SPRING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEPARTING THE AREA TODAY BUT AS IT DEPARTS EXPECT STRONG WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS NOW LOCATED ROUGHLY NEAR A DRT-UVA-PEZ LINE. AS THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS FURTHER AND MOVES SOUTH. A COLD FRONT ALONG A LANGTRY TO SAN ANTONIO TO GIDDINGS LINE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH WITH RADARS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND IT FROM SAN ANTONIO INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN HILL COUNTRY.
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NASHVILLE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE SMOKIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 51 74 48 / 80 10 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 70 47 71 45 / 80 10 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 68 46 71 45 / 80 10 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 69 43 67 38 / 90 10 0 10.
945 AM MST FRI APR 10 2015 A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING GRADUALLY REBUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
WARM ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC BASIN. AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE RISING THROUGH THE LOWER 80S. WHILE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING STEADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
1135 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015 ALL LINGERING RAIN BEHIND COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH THUS HAVE UPDATED POPS ACCORDINGLY. COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM JACKSON TENNESSEE.
954 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL HOLD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER NEAR THE COAST AS AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES GRADUALLY INLAND.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY POSITIONED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH THIS MORNING.
923 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015 COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR THIS EVENING.
SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A FLAT RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGION. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE DROPS TO A POSITION WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. GOOD DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING'S.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH S/SE WINDS BECOMING S/SW INTO LATE TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA YESTERDAY HAS MOISTENED UP BOUNDARY LAYER SOME AND WILL AFFECT THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST SOMEWHAT. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY.
940 AM PDT FRI APR 10 2015 THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. HIGH PRESSURE WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BUMP TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL. SPIT OUT AHEAD OF THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD BAJA. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE BECOME MORE ONSHORE JUST AS ADVERTISED AND THE COOLER TEMPERATURES SO FAR REFLECT THAT TREND.
CURRENT OBS SHOW TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH OVERCAST SKIES. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGER IN NE AL AHEAD OF WHERE THE COLD FRONT IS DRAPED. AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH EACH TERMINAL.
MVFR TO VFR SKIES ARE PREVAILING AS OUR CURRENT COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE MID-STATE.
705 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD AND INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
1115 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015 A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS.
1204 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WAS ADVANCING ACROSS WESTERN PA AND WV. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY.
GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS DECREASING AROUND SUNSET.
THIS LOWER CLOUD COVER MAY SLIP INTO THE AEX AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND CARRYING A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS FROM EARLIER HAVE SCATTERED OUT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WRN GULF COAST REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING WHILE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE NEAR THE SOUTH END OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS WHILE RIDGING OCCURS LOCALLY.
/ISSUED 315 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015/ OVERALL A QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION.
1220 PM PDT SUN MAR 15 2015 WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. SLIGHT COOLING IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER CAN BE EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST, BUT WILL PROBABLY BE THROWING IN SOME SMALL SHOWER CHANCES ON WED FOR THE MTNS AS MODELS SHOW SOME DECENT INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THAT NEXT TROF. ***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION*** THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN MONDAY BUT HGTS REMAIN QUITE HIGH OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS FROM THE EAST AND REDEVELOPS FROM THE NORTH SO ONE LAST DAY OF VERY WARM TEMPS PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY BUT THAT REALLY DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH HIGH CLOUDS THERE ARE.
1158 AM PDT SUN MAR 15 2015 More wet weather is in store today and tonight as another low pressure system brings rain to the Pacific Northwest.
SO MUCH SO THAT I HAVE BUMPED UP THE HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS WE ARE DEFINITELY DRYING OUT TODAY. 08/MK /ISSUED 415 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015/ UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STILL INDICATES GENERAL TROUGHING IN THE EAST AND RIDGING IN THE WESTERN CONUS.
An additional 1 to 2 inches of precipitation is expected over the next 24 hours with locally higher amounts possible over the higher terrain of Glacier Park.
504 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY ON MONDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST AND GUSTS DIMINISHING. THE GOOD NEWS IS SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE STRONG WAA LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE IN THE AFTERNOON.
1227 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 TEMPERATURES ARE CLIMBING QUICKLY THIS MORNING BEHIND TROUGH PASSAGE. SURFACE TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST. WE WILL SEE WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD BY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE TROF MOVES THOUGH THE CWA TONIGHT HELPING KEEP US MIXED AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW 30S.
WILL INCREASE CHANCES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN. COLDER - BUT MORE SEASONABLE - AIR MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. MOVING FROM BROAD RIDGING TO A MORE ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW. WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES IN FROM THE DAKOTAS FOR LATER TONIGHT/MON MORNING WITH WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT THRU MON MORNING VARIABLE AND GENERALLY 6KTS OR LESS.
306 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND LAKE ERIE MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE LOW A WARM FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING MILD AIR TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND USHER IN COOL BUT DRY AIR FOR MID WEEK. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARM ADVECTION BEGINNING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS ACROSS OHIO IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING LOW DUE IN MONDAY NIGHT. WARM FRONTOGENESIS AND INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS ESP NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA EARLY MONDAY NIGHT COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE LOW MOVES EAST THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH TO OUR NRN-MOST ZONES BUT LIGHT PCPN CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND WEST- CENTRL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. BUT STILL MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL. FRONTAL BAND JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL COME IN AS A WEAK COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
/ISSUED 408 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015/ BROAD CUTOFF UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE SRN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. ABUNDANT MID/UPPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NWD INTO THE REGION ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
435 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OUT INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT WITH DRY AND WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP. THE LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AS A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND FORCING ITS AXIS EAST OF THE DIVIDE.
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE DIRTY RIDGE IS NOW EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPS CURRENTLY RUNNING 1 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT ON THE NOSE OF A RIDGE ORIENTED SW-NE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
THE UPPER LOW HANGING OUT WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL OCCASIONALLY SPIN SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION. RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO MID-40S IN THE DOWNSLOPE-ENHANCED REGIONS JUST OFF THE CAPROCK.
128 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES INTO MONDAY.
UPPER RIDGING STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. LEE TROUGHING IS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN CO/FAR WESTERN KS WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE HIGHER TEMPS OVER CENTRAL KS. COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUE. THE GFS IS CURRENTLY THE OUTLIER IN DIGGING A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR SAT AND SUN. THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE NOT NEARLY AS AMPLIFIED AS THE GFS WITH THIS TROUGH. WITH MAX TEMPS MON CONTINUING TO COME IN WARMER RH'S ARE TRENDING DOWN. MON AFTERNOON RH'S ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 10% OVER CENTRAL KS TO THE LOW 30S OVER SE KS. EVEN THOUGH COOLER TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHER RH'S(30-40%) ON TUE.
A COLD FRONT IS CONTINUING ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. ALBEIT A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION THAT FORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL KEEP THE COAST A FEW DEGREES COOLER. CUT-OFF U/L LOW WILL BE OVER BAJA CA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DOWNSTREAM U/L RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA.
SLIGHT COOLING IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER CAN BE EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOCAL SST'S RUNNING 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ARE CERTAINLY HAVING AN IMPACT ON BOTH THE HIGHS AND LOWS.
A WARM FRONT HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH FASTER THAN EXPECTED AND PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE BREEZY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE FROM 22Z THROUGH 04Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS SYSTEM'S WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT, EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, MONDAY.
313 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY ON MONDAY.
1220 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 VERY WARM AND DRY SWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF POLAR COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN INTO SWRN ALBERTA. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN IOWA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE TUE AND WED.
408 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 BROAD CUTOFF UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE SRN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. ABUNDANT MID/UPPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NWD INTO THE REGION ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
249 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.
With the dry airmass in place, min temps will range from the upper 40s for our northernmost zones to the lower and mid 50s elsewhere.
THE THUMB, WHICH WILL RESIDE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO 60. UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN TOWARD THE EVENING, EVENTUALLY EVOLVING TOWARD A CYCLONIC CURVATURE AS THE JET PRESENTLY SUPPORTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE PACNW/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST PROPAGATES EAST WITH THE HELP OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY.
DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE ARKLAMISS WILL MAINTAIN A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH LITTLE MIXING OF THE LOWER LEVELS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT EARLY MORNING FOG.
124 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015 A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH MOVING OVER THAT AREA, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE CRITICAL AREA. MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH. MAX TEMPERATURES COULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING AN END TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
125 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TO THE GULF COAST WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. NO SENSIBLE WX CONCERNS THIS PD AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES. XPCD WAA INADV OF PROGRESSIVE SW ADVG EWD THROUGH CNTRL CANADA AND DEGREE OF THERMAL RIDGING THAT BUILDS THIS AFTN. AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO COOLER/SEASONAL WX 925 MB TEMPS PUSHING 13-15C IN A WELL MIXED PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD AFFORD MID 60S-LOW 70S HIGHS MONDAY.
1222 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2015 After a few soggy days, Spring looks to make an appearance today and tomorrow across the region, before cooler weather and more rain arrive for the middle of the week. Readings should top out this afternoon around 70s, with abundant sunshine thanks to high pressure moving south through the area. After a mild night tonight, an even warmer and breezier day is expected for Monday, with highs solidly into the mid 70s. While dewpoints should be a bit higher Monday, warmer temperatures and stronger winds should result in an additional day of elevated fire weather conditions in a few areas, again mostly across central and west-central Missouri.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT WITH HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF WESTERN KANSAS AT THE SURFACE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED AROUND THE KS/CO BORDER THROUGH TOMORROW LEADING TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES WITH HIGHS TOMORROW REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. IN FACT, IF MODELS CONTINUE THE WARMER TREND, DOWN RIGHT HOT (RELATIVE TO CLIMO FOR 16 MARCH).
608 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND LAKE ERIE MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE LOW A WARM FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING MILD AIR TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND USHER IN COOL BUT DRY AIR FOR MID WEEK. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARM ADVECTION BEGINNING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS ACROSS OHIO IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING LOW DUE IN MONDAY NIGHT. WARM FRONTOGENESIS AND INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS ESP NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA EARLY MONDAY NIGHT COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE LOW MOVES EAST THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
355 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
233 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES INTO MONDAY.
123 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015 A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH MOVING OVER THAT AREA, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE CRITICAL AREA. MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH. MAX TEMPERATURES COULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN LIKELY AS MOISTURE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING AROUND THE BAJA WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH THE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SOUTH OF THE REGION BY MORNING. MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A COOLER NIGHT. WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.
Only reason for not expanding Red Flag further south was the lower wind speeds. Also highs in the lower 80s are expected. have lowered dewpoints but kept the warmer temperatures which gives minimum afternoon humidity levels of 11 to 20 percent across all areas north and west of the I 35 corridor. Monday night the cold front will push southeast across north central and northeast Kansas during the evening hours then across east central Kansas after midnight.
WITH 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT LONG KEY LIGHT LIKELY DUE TO THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE UPPER LOW TREKKING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. AND AN UPPER LOW SLIDING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND IS BEING REPLACE BY THE LOW OVER CANADA. WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL RIDGE.
AS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW DESCENDS TOWARD THE SOMEWHAT COOLER/DENSER SURFACE LAYER.
459 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE EASTERN KENTUCKY AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTROL THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH. AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVING TOWARD MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THE UNSEASONABLE HEAT WILL SLOWLY ABATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS.
404 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL MOVE CONTINUE MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY.
SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TODAY THOUGH! HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND DRIER AIR.
342 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE EASTERN KENTUCKY AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTROL THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH. AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVING TOWARD MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
231 PM PDT SUN MAR 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING BRINGING A SLIGHT COOLING TREND MONDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS INCREASED CLOUDS.
130 PM PDT SUN MAR 15 2015 SLIGHT COOLING IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER CAN BE EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOCAL SST'S RUNNING 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ARE CERTAINLY HAVING AN IMPACT ON BOTH THE HIGHS AND LOWS.
SIGNS ARE POINTING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A VERY STOUT THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND STRETCH ACROSS THE CWA. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND SIGNIFICANT LAG OF COOLER 925:900 MB TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK COOLER AND QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
208 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES INTO MONDAY.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WAS BEGINNING TO ENTER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS - INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WERE OCCURRING OVER WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. THUS ANY MIXING OF THE LOWER/SURFACE LAYERS WITH H850 WOULD NOT TAP INTO VERY STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. 71 IN 2012 TONIGHT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SOURCE SHOULD KEEP QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE LOW END. WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW END.
High pressure ridge currently extends just south of the forecast area bribing return flow to eastern KS. Also, the dry air mass in the low to mid levels that remains just above the boundary layer will mix down to the surface this afternoon. Mixing heights are forecast to be around 900 mb and with the warmer temperatures in place highs should reach to the mid to upper 70s. Eastern KS will reside in between the high pressure to the south and the northern wave causing an increase in the pressure gradient. Therefore low temperatures remain in the 40s, and the valley locations with the lowest temperatures. Not far behind is the next strong cold front poised to move through in the overnight hours and bring strong north to northeast winds as it does so.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. RADAR INDICATES AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COAST MOVING NORTHWARD. AREAS OF -RA ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY TRY TO SPREAD NWRD THRU THE DAY BUT WILL ENCOUNTER DRIER LLVL AIR.
342 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 SNOW SHOWERS WILL END THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES.
QUIET AND CALM WEATHER DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
209 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2015 Very warm and dry weather is expected for this period as an upper level ridge moves across the region.