Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
230 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAINFALL INTO TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND A TROUGH MOVING FROM NEW MEXICO NE TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. SOUNDINGS FROM THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWED A DECENT INVERSION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO THE FRONT. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS TEXAS RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY.
BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ON MONDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB FLOW IN PLACE NEAR A SURFACE COLD FRONT. A TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL APPROACH WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND A GOOD FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA MONDAY NIGHT AS IT AWAITS AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROF. THE NGM AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE POSITIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROF.
THERE ALSO SEEMS TO BE AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS/BOUNDARY/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO THE OVER CENTRAL/WEST LOUISIANA. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/FRONT WILL FINALLY START TO MOVE EAST EARLY MONDAY. THE NEXT CUT OFF LOW MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST FORCING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO MOVE EAST.
230 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND END BY LATE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 OVER NORTHEAST IOWA.
242 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016 A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR PARIS TENNESSEE TO MEMPHIS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
244 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016 STILL SEEING A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE LOWER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DYING WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY COOLER NIGHT. AND LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
600 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 317 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/ LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN IOWA CLOSED OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO LOUISIANA. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z/MON AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATES.
325 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016 Clouds will continue to move southeast and will overspread the area by mid evening as upper trough back over eastern Nebraska drops southeast into Missouri and Illinois. Some isolated showers may begin to develop toward morning underneath the upper trough over central and northeast Missouri.
343 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016 (Tonight and Monday) Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have begun developing along and west of a Haskell to Sweetwater line as of 3 PM this afternoon, as isentropic lift from southerly flow over the top of the cool surface air mass combines with large scale lift moving in from an approaching upper level low in eastern AZ. As this low flattens out into a wave and is drawn eastward into faster westerly flow, modest lift will continue to spread into the area continuing a chance for showers and isolated storms tonight across the entire area. Cooler than normal temperatures will continue as the cool air mass will remain in place, and clouds are also expected to hang around into the afternoon hours limiting the amount of heating that the sun could provide.
AND IF SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP AS THREE SUBTLE WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH.
EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY AND TROUGH TO SHIFT NORTHWEST SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE LESS THAN 7 KNOTS WITH THE TROUGH AND NORTHEAST TO NORTH AROUND THE BACK OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL PUSH MOISTURE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND PARK COUNTY FOR UP TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. READINGS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. WITH SEVERAL RECENT NIGHTS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND THE RECENT SNOWY WEATHER PATTERN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARER SKIES OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES.
643 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH/ VORT MAX IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POSSIBLE MCS. THE DAY TIME ON MONDAY WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF ANY CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH AND SOME MEAGER HEATING HAPPENS. WINDS COULD GET GUSTY /20S/ OVER THE LAURELS AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER IN STORE AS A COOL UPPER LOW DROPS THROUGH MIDWEEK AND SETTLES NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THAT.
At the surface, a cold front extends from central MN through southern SD with some lee troughing over eastern CO. Will stay with the thinking that locations generally along and north of I-70 will have the highest storm chances tonight along with the northeast fringes of our forecast area. Even though confidence is high that dewpoints will mix out more than today, warmer temps should make up for this, still resulting in heat indices at or greater than 105. This will push a cold front down into the central Plains and will extend generally along the KS Turnpike by 00z Fri. ECMWF and GFS continue to agree on a trough digging over the NW CONUS resulting in ridging over the Rockies into the Plains. A surface trof will sink southeastward into north central Kansas tonight.
Recent runs of the ESRL HRRR (experimental HRRR) and the HRRR-parallel have indicated showers/storms developing as far south as the Red River towards the morning hours, and based on the strength and orientation of the low-level jet, this idea doesn't seem too far-fetched.
IR satellite shows a band of cooling cloud tops pivoting around the low in south-central BC.
1040 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016 A pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the northern Gulf of Mexico through the week. A weak pressure trough will linger near the forecast area.
In the low levels of the atmosphere, an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across central Florida overnight. In the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere, an area of high pressure will be centered just north of the Bahamas tonight.
703 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016 Upper level ridging over the region, combined with southerly surface flow and residual moisture from the rains that occurred over the holiday weekend were combining to create dangerous heat today.
A low pressure system and associated frontal boundary is currently over the eastern CWA.
Pseudo zonal flow pattern is in place across the northern CONUS with low amplitude ridging across the western Great Lakes. At the surface, Wave stalled front stretches across southern Ontario and Lake Superior back to developing low pressure in South Dakota. A respectable instability axis stretches up through the plains ahead of the low with an eastward extension into Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula. Upstream, cold front is expected to press into the upper Midwest/far western Great Lakes, roughly from western upper Michigan down into Iowa.
735 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016 Warmer and more humid weather will return for the rest of the week with periodic rain chances.
Main surface trof lies along the southeastern fringe of the FA and will provide the focus for deep convection into portions of west central through central MN into the early evening. The trailing H7 trof is generating some elevated showers yet across portions of northwest MN but expect those will steadily diminish over the next few hours.
1145 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016 Very high heat indices are the main focus this afternoon as the thermal ridge continues to expand over the forecast area and nearly 80 degree dewpoints pool at the surface. Extremely high CAPE is also present throughout the area with steep lapse rates above the thermal ridge and the 18z RAP analysis indicating >5000-6000 J/kg MUCAPE across the region; however, both model soundings and recent ACARS soundings indicate enough of a capping inversion around 850 hPa to prevent warm-sector initiation in our forecast area.
The next low pressure disturbance will then move across the northwest states and northern Rockies Sun-Mon. with gusts as an upper trough to the northwest moves eastward and tightens the pressure gradient over the area.
739 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016 Warmer and more humid weather will return for the rest of the week with periodic rain chances.
/ISSUED / Ridging has been the dominant weather story today leading to above normal temperatures - particularly with respect to the min temperatures.
830 PM PDT TUE JUL 5 2016 A trough along the West Coast will bring cooler than average weather this week and an unusually deep marine layer for July. An upper low will form over the Gulf of Alaska this week, then intensify and move southeast across the Pacific Northwest this weekend.
Temperatures are running a couple of degrees cooler this evening. Not a lot of change is expected in the troughs position through Wednesday and temperatures should end up similar to todays.
Will stay with the thinking that locations generally along and north of I-70 will have the highest storm chances tonight along with the northeast fringes of our forecast area. Even though confidence is high that dewpoints will mix out more than today, warmer temps should make up for this, still resulting in heat indices at or greater than 105. This will push a cold front down into the central Plains and will extend generally along the KS Turnpike by 00z Fri. ECMWF and GFS continue to agree on a trough digging over the NW CONUS resulting in ridging over the Rockies into the Plains. A surface trof will sink southeastward into north central Kansas tonight.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED COOLER THAN FORECASTED FOR THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LONG DURATION OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA AND THE CLOUD COVER. Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 92 74 95 / 40 40 30 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 89 71 92 / 40 40 30 30 Oak Ridge, TN 71 89 71 92 / 40 40 30 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 86 69 86 / 40 50 60 50.
Hot and Humid conditions with limited rain chances to continue High pressure ridge aloft and at the surface stretching from the Bahamas across the FL Peninsula and into the GOMEX will continue hot and humid conditions with limited rain chances through wednesday. The widely scattered activity today formed along thermal trof axis from Valdosta to Brunswick Georgia and tracked off towards the E/NE with peak wind gusts of 30-40 mph and is now weakening over the SE GA coastal waters. Weak trof at the surface and aloft over the SE U. including South GA will lead to slightly cooler temps aloft and some additional instability.
707 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016 High pressure over the lower lakes will weaken and slide east tomorrow.
1252 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2016 Warmer and more humid weather will return for the rest of the week with periodic rain chances.
540 PM MDT TUE JUL 5 2016 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southeast SD, with cool front trailing west-southwest across south central SD to central WY. Low pressure will slowly track east along the front from east-central WY in the morning to southwest SD by early afternoon and then across southwest and south central SD during the afternoon and evening.
654 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016 Weak high pressure slowly moving eastward this afternoon. With the moisture being more evenly distributed through the low layers, and the nature of the model depictions of QPF/reflectivity. Cloud cover and southerly winds both contributing to warmer overnight lows than the last few nights, dropping only into the lower 70s.
1000 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016 A weak high pressure system will build northwest of the region tonight.
1147 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016 An isolated area of convection has developed along the warm front just west of Schuyler County and is drifting eastward. Weak high pressure slowly moving eastward this afternoon. With the moisture being more evenly distributed through the low layers, and the nature of the model depictions of QPF/reflectivity. Cloud cover and southerly winds both contributing to warmer overnight lows than the last few nights, dropping only into the lower 70s.
Cannot rule out severe weather anywhere in the forecast area, but central and northern counties will be under the highest risk. Convergence along a warm front stretching from this low lead to the development of severe thunderstorms across western Minnesota. Weak H7 and H5 ridging has kept CI at bay today.
Mid level trough remains over the area but for now convection has died off in Middle Tennessee. Think convection during the day Wednesday will be scattered but a meso convective system dives down this way as ridging buckles creating a northwest flow Wednesday night allowing complex to take a dive towards Middle Tennessee.
746 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016 A pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the northern Gulf of Mexico through the week. A weak pressure trough will linger near the forecast area. Showers and thunderstorms have moved into the forecast area as the short wave trough moves closer to the area. The rainfall has also lowered the temperatures considerably across the area with locations previous in the low 100s dropping into the low 80s.
636 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016 Very high heat indices are the main focus this afternoon as the thermal ridge continues to expand over the forecast area and nearly 80 degree dewpoints pool at the surface. Extremely high CAPE is also present throughout the area with steep lapse rates above the thermal ridge and the 18z RAP analysis indicating >5000-6000 J/kg MUCAPE across the region; however, both model soundings and recent ACARS soundings indicate enough of a capping inversion around 850 hPa to prevent warm-sector initiation in our forecast area.
927 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016 A weak area of high pressure will build over the Tri-State Region through Wednesday.
1009 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016 A weak area of high pressure will build over the Tri-State Region through Wednesday.
923 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016 High pressure over the lower lakes will weaken and slide east tomorrow.
Will stay with the thinking that locations generally along and north of I-70 will have the highest storm chances tonight along with the northeast fringes of our forecast area. Even though confidence is high that dewpoints will mix out more than today, warmer temps should make up for this, still resulting in heat indices at or greater than 105. This will push a cold front down into the central Plains and will extend generally along the KS Turnpike by 00z Fri. ECMWF and GFS continue to agree on a trough digging over the NW CONUS resulting in ridging over the Rockies into the Plains.
1012 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016 Aside from a cluster of storms near the Lower Keys earlier this evening, there have been very few echoes on KBYX radar.
1031 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016 A cold front will move southeast across the region tonight.
Otherwise, weak ridging will prevail aloft into the weekend. The ridging should also help make temperatures a few degrees hotter into the weekend.
The mean mid-level trough axis will be swinging east of the area on Saturday night with a drier column infiltrating the area progressively from west to east. Northwest flow will become established behind it with cooler and drier air coming into the CWA for the remainder of the weekend.
Weather maps show a deep layer ridge in the low and mid levels of the atmosphere positioned from the southwest Atlantic to across the central Gulf coast. the larger scale subsidence/sinking motion from the ridge aloft is acting to keep showers and storms isolated in coverage. The deep layer ridge holds into tonight. forecasters will be watching for a mid level impulse on the northern periphery of the ridge to drop southeast across the Lower MS River Delta.
Despite some morning clouds and an easterly wind across the area, temperatures have risen into the upper 80s to near 90, save the far south which is still holding in the lower 80s as clouds continue there.
The area remains on the edge of an upper level ridge that is centered over Northern Mexico, however the eastern flank over the northern gulf coast is gradually weakening. There is a slight increase in convection today when compared to over the past couple of days as the ridge has somewhat weakened.
The radar remains quiet across Central Alabama this afternoon as convection continues to be suppressed by the upper ridge. A weak cold front is currently located across central Missouri and central Illinois. Additional scattered convection is developing eastward into Tennessee near a possible pre-frontal trough.
Dry conditions return on Saturday as the upper level ridge continues to build across the central US. High temperatures rebound into the low 90s with gusty winds developing (gusts up to 28 mph across the northern half of the CWA).
Tonight, the ridge of higher pressure begins to depart eastward, and the large low pressure system over the pacific northwest coast will begin to introduce a slight southwest flow aloft over northeast Montana with increased moisture.
Drier air will advect in behind the departing lift associated with the upper low pulling east of the Great Lakes tonight.
As of 8 pm CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South are mostly in the lower 80s where rain has been nearly non-existent and lower to middle 70s across the northern third of the forecast area. expect another MCS to develop over Southwest Missouri near the vicinity of a weak cold front during the early morning hours.
A cold front will help spawn more widespread showers and thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon.
As wave currently in southwest Wyoming rotates around building ridge, coverage of elevated convection should increase last half of tonight and into Saturday morning with low level jet increasing and veering into the area later tonight. Main wave will settle southeast through Nebraska on Saturday morning as mean ridge continues to build across the northern plains, and this should result in the area gradually waning in coverage through midday.
Given the steep lapse rates, dew points in the lower 70s and lingering instability overnight, seems like the solution of the precip making it this far is valid. Lows will be similar to previous nights and in the lower to middle 70s. Starting Saturday and synoptically speaking, an upper low will be moving east across the Great Lakes, dragging a weak frontal boundary to the south. Saturday temps will be slightly cooler and in the lower to middle 90s.
826 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016 Low pressure crossing the Great Lakes will push a cold front into the Ohio Valley tonight, then closer to the mid Atlantic region on Saturday.
The big ticket item for the overnight hours will be the approach of a cold front and potent squall line accompanying it. At the surface, the cold front crossing lower Michigan/northern Indiana late this afternoon is expected to press eastward across central and eastern PA on Saturday and eventually merge with the backdoor front along the southern New England coast and lee trough over the Mid Atlantic piedmont. Low pressure will consolidate over NY before giving way to secondary low developing offshore the New England coast into the Canadian Maritimes.
Cooler and drier air will gradually move in tonight through Saturday night. For most of the area the impact of this cooler air will be a period of low clouds. mostly after midnight and slightly cooler temperatures Saturday morning. Limiting factors to greater svr wx potential include lack of stronger forcing with the cold front itself/lack of sfc convergence and that the best upper level forcing/dynamics are north of our fcst area across northern lwr MI. Isolated light rain showers and sprinkles may redevelop tonight and Saturday with the relatively best chc for a few of those over our northern/ne fcst area in closer proximity to the upper low/trof axis.
The 500MB ridge centered over far eastern MT/WY this afternoon will move directly overhead by 12-15Z Saturday. Highs on Saturday will be 5-8F warmer than today, topping out in the the 80s east of the MO River Valley, and in the low to mid 90s elsewhere. An area of low pressure will move through the Northern Plains over the weekend. A strong ridge aloft will also be in place. Shear and general instability will be sufficient on Saturday night to generate showers and thunderstorms ahead of the low.
Will keep the highest pops across NE OK/NW AR on Saturday and Saturday night near the residual synoptic front.
/issued 238 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday night): Mid-latitude storm track remains well to the north, across the northern tier states, so broad 500-mb high pressure will continue to dominate the weather over Texas, the Gulf Coast states, and the entire Gulf of Mexico.
a vertically stacked low pressure area was located over north-central Wisconsin.
917 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016 A ridge of high pressure in the Canadian Maritimes will dominate until later Saturday.
Drier and cooler air filtered into the region through the early afternoon hours, behind an exiting cold front. The main forecast issue in the short term period is temperatures with high pressure in place across the forecast area. Dewpoint temperatures will be in the low 60s, some relief from the humid weather of late.
Lowering PW values on Saturday with upper high over SW New Mexico will limit any thunderstorm activity to along the International border from Nogales east and across the White mountains. Highs on Saturday similar or slightly warmer than today.
However, additional development cannot be ruled through daybreak with increasing upper troughing beginning to work southward from the Ozarks.
633 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 The cold front continues to waver about from south central IL across the St. There is yet another weak upstream short wave in western IA at this time, and passage of it and continued digging of the upper trof through the Great Lakes should nudge the front southward into far southern MO and southern IL tonight.
Cooler and drier air will gradually move in tonight through Saturday night. Limiting factors to greater svr wx potential include lack of stronger forcing with the cold front itself/lack of sfc convergence and that the best upper level forcing/dynamics are north of our fcst area across northern lwr MI. Isolated light rain showers and sprinkles may redevelop tonight and Saturday with the relatively best chc for a few of those over our northern/ne fcst area in closer proximity to the upper low/trof axis.
631 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 A surface cold front has settled just south of the Interstate 70 corridor this afternoon, with dry air moving into the area north of the boundary with dewpoints in the 60s. The weekend ahead looks quiet overall as the region finds itself underneath the center of an upper ridge building into the central CONUS.
1237 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 High pressure in the maritimes will dominate until later Saturday.
At the surface, the cold front crossing swrn Ontario late this evening will press southeastward across central and eastern PA on Saturday, and eventually merge with the backdoor front along the southern New England coast and lee trough over the Mid Atlantic piedmont. Low pressure will consolidate over NY before giving way to secondary low developing offshore the New England coast into the Canadian Maritimes.
Remainder of the weekend should be quiet, dry, warm to hot, and increasingly humid as southerly flow continues across the region, as a weak upper level ridge builds across the plains. Models do hint that convection could develop underneath the ridge both south and north of the forecast area Saturday night, but will keep our area dry for now.