Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A coastal trough along the southern Texas coast remains with noticeable counter-clockwise rotation over the area. Showers and thunderstorms are again expected to redevelop or continue across the gulf waters overnight from the combination of deep tropical moisture, a lingering surface coastal trough, and a broad mid level low aloft also draped along the Texas coast. The drying is expected to move in from the north-northwest from the mid level trough, with the bulk of the moisture focused across the gulf waters and coastal plains.
Upper level flow will shift from west to northwest tonight as a ridge builds offshore.
There also is a hint of isolated convection developing along surface theta-e/thermal ridge axis that currently extends from west of Wichita to Kearney, but expect any of this activity to be diurnally driven. More vigorous upper level trough will dig southward from Saskatchewan, thus boundary forecast to lift back into area.
Northerly flow aloft today will become more NW/W as the center of the upper ridge to the west shifts south. Significant warming continues the next couple days as the 850mb thermal ridge shifts east and much drier air starts to work its way eastward with an advancing dryline.
1249 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017 Much cooler weather still expected today across the CWA as high pressure continues to move southeast. Surface map of the country dominated by high pressure from the Plains to the Atlantic coast. As the ridge shifts eastward into the Midwest, mild weather will continue for today, albeit with a warming trend. High pressure moving into Central IL will put the region under the axis of the ridge. As the ridge slides slowly eastward.
357 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 An upper level trough will remain to our west through mid week. Weather disturbances moving out of the trough will cross the overnight into Wednesday.
Last of the pesky little waves riding through the base of the large eastern US upper trough continues to pass this afternoon with minimal effect. POPs tomorrow night a little uncertain as the medium range models begin developing a weak upper low over the central gulf coast.
245 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 High pressure will move east through the Ohio Valley today and tonight. As the high moves east tomorrow, warmer air will begin to move into the region, with an increase in temperatures expected through the rest of the week.
Although warmer, lows tonight will continue to be below normal for late June, especially across southwest IL. Ahead of the cold front,warm and moist air will continue to stream northward ahead of the system.
There may be a few afternoon cumulus clouds, while any deep moist convection originating over the higher terrain of NM should fade well off to the west and northwest of the terminals this evening. /issued 333 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017/ Model consensus is strong for the next trough currently entering the Pacific Northwest to gradually break down the ridge that will begin our return to more seasonable heat beginning this afternoon.
Another beautiful day is in store for tomorrow with sunshine and low humidity helping boost temps back into the lower 80s. This will result in a wider temperature range across the area, with temps varying from the mid 50s in our deeper eastern valleys to the low to mid 60s elsewhere.
This happens in the well know 'break between two ridges. ' The approach of the wave excites the lower tropospheric winds to veer to a more SE direction by tonight. Any deep convection will diminish during the early evening, but thunderstorm coverage will be above average however over the AL coastal waters tonight as return flow begins and the aforementioned upper low shear zone orients itself from SSW to NNE across our area.
Coastal trough still along the southern Texas coast will contribute to continued rain chances late tonight, especially along the coast. Winds will vary with nearby trough. Coastal trough that remains rather stationary along the southern Texas coast should keep convergence and bulk of rain activity along the coast and offshore.
156 PM PDT Tue Jun 27 2017 Weak low pressure over the Pacific Northwest will bring moderate afternoon breezes, but little or no cloud cover, through Wednesday.
Relatively slow evolving pattern through the extended with large trough intensifying over Alberta on Wednesday and then gradually shifting east into the Great Lakes region over the weekend.
The pacific cold front is forecast to cool 700mb temperatures and weaken the cap allowing more storm development across Ncntl Neb.
A coastal low along the Middle and Lower Texas coast is also expected to nudge into the northwest Gulf as a result of the passage of this feature, but short term guidance differs somewhat on the exact trajectory this low will take. These kinds of amounts exceed flash flood guidance, but because of concerns about the actual trajectory of the trough have held off on a Flash Flood Watch for now.
SCT-BKN cirrus associated with weak mid-level troughing will also slide over our northern terminals for a few hours this afternoon.
551 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 A cold front will approach from the west through this evening and will likely aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms, a few of which may be strong to severe.
The forecast for Wednesday has changed a bit, with models now stretching the large-scale trough a bit further southwest over the Northern Rockies.
452 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 Cool temperatures are expected tonight under high pressure.
241 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 A weak cold front will cross the region this afternoon bringing a chance of a shower or thundershower. High pressure build into the area tonight drying things out.
High pressure remains in control of the region and dry conditons are expected through the short term.
Yet another wave will move overhead on Wednesday but instability should be less overall with cooler temperatures and drier conditions in place.
The weak upper level trough that has aided in the development of thunderstorms today will shift to the east overnight tonight. High temperatures Wednesday will be a little warmer with ranging from near 90 east to the mid 90s northwest.
Low pressure moving far to the north over Canada will bring some cooler air to the Great Basin over the next couple days. Low pressure will be dropping due south from northern Canada to bring some cooler air to the LKN CWFA. Low pressure over Canada will begin moving east.
/issued 250 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017/ WV imagery this morning shows upper ridge axis over the Mountain West, with upper trof over the ern CONUS.
Meanwhile, a positively tilted trough aloft will pivot across the region today. A series of weak impulses riding the trough will cross just to our north. Given this, there might be just enough moisture and lift (thanks to orographic effects) to squeeze out some showers across the higher terrain by mid to late morning. The trough will exit this afternoon with zonal flow moving overhead.
/Issued 419 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017/ Northwest flow will transition to westerly flow this evening as an upper level trough suppresses the four corners high pressure system.
1228 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017 A nice, quiet day is in store for everyone today has high pressure has settled in over the area. As the high moves southeast today, winds will shift to the south, starting a warming trend. Today, temperatures will warm into the low 80s. This is still below average, but warmer than what we have been experiencing the past few days.
617 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 A cold front will pass through early this evening with high pressure building east from the OhiO Valley. The high passes south of the area Wednesday afternoon and night.
Also noted was scattered convection riding atop aforementioned ridge in MT. large area of high pressure was in control over the central CONUS. Increasing low level theta-E advection coupled with daytime heating will allow for quick destabiliation as a warm front lifts northward this afternoon. Precip into Wednesday most likely to be found over the eastern CWA as a cold front moves in from the west. Models prog this cold front to stall from about s-cntrl IA to n-cntrl KS Wednesday night.
324 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017 A well-defined short wave moving into the northern Rockies today will drag a modest mid level moisture plume across our area tonight into Wednesday though within a low amplitude upper ridge passing overhead. Lift mainly to the north, but storms currently firing over the higher terrain in northern New Mexico will make a run southeast towards our western areas late this evening.
/19/ High pressure at the surface will maintain easterly flow across the region through the remainder of today. This will result in continued quiet and slightly drier conditions across the CWA as dew points generally sit in the low to mid 60s. Temperatures will be a little warmer today than yesterday and reach into the mid to upper 80s.
Wednesday, mid-level trough axis will likely be oriented along the coastal areas, so the main rain chances will be over the eastern half of Deep South Texas and over the marine areas.
343 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017 As of 20Z, a broad upper ridge was positioned across the eastern half of the CONUS. Further west, a broad upper trough was across the Northern Rockies. Given the zonal mid and upper flow, coupled with the east to west progression of the trough, expected the bulk of thunderstorm activity to remain north of the KS/NE border through the overnight hours. The tornado threat is not zero, however the low level wind shear is relatively unidirectional. The cold front with this feature will extend south and west into central Kansas by early evening and storms may back build into the area near the surface boundary.
and Wednesday High pressure will track through the western Great Lakes region today, bringing mostly sunny skies and warmer high temperatures during the afternoon hours. Highs will still be below normal for this time of year, however the area is expected to at least get into the lower to middle 70s. A low pressure system will approach the upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, bringing rain to the western Great Lakes throughout the day.
408 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017 Quite a bit of scattered convection has developed just south of the CWA and along the Gulf coast near the combination of a weak stationary front and a weak upper trough over Southeast Texas.
303 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 A cold front dropping south out of Canada will keep scattered showers and thunderstorms going across much of the area through early this evening.
620 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 A weak cold front will cross the region this afternoon bringing a chance of a shower or thundershower. High pressure build into the area tonight drying things out.
Would not be surprised to see the showers and thunderstorms linger, especially in the northeast after midnight in association with a short wave trough passing near this area. Also, the low level jet should also add to the shear.
1253 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017 Temperatures in our northeast CWA are not warming as expected with several locations in the low to mid 70s. As the cold front moves into the western CWA and towards the Missouri valley between 00 and 03Z, it will be the focus for surface based convection, with the core of 700mb warm air moving off to the east.
Dry weather continues across Indiana Tuesday as high pressure persists.
High pressure will remain the primary influence over the Northland this evening keeping mainly clear skies and dry conditions. An approaching area of low pressure from the Dakotas will trigger showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
333 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017 A strong area of low pressure is currently located over eastern MT with a frontal boundary running southward across western SD.
At 2 PM CDT a warm front extended through southwest North Dakota followed by a cold front just entering the far west. On Wednesday the cold front will have moved through the region and showers will be ending by noon east. Cooler and dryer air will be in place. Minimum relative humidity will still fall into the lower 20s southwest but the gusty winds will have moved east by afternoon.
136 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 An upper disturbance will bring a few showers this afternoon into this evening, followed by drier and slightly cooler air through mid week. Unseasonably dry and cool conditions will draw few complaints as the muggy feel remains absent from the sensible weather regime, as continental high pressure born from the upper US plains sinks SE into the Carolina skies.
118 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 A weak cold front will cross the area later today into tonight.
Have tweaked POP/WX grids to reflect a delayed onset, with showers and thunderstorms becoming widespread across MN counties between 05z and 11z as the low level jet increases to 50+ knots.
310 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 High pressure crosses tonight.
Main vorticity axis stretching from the closed upper low in the eastern Great Lakes is in the process of working south of I-70 around 08z. Ridging develops in the wake of the passing upper level trough today and will persist through Wednesday afternoon. Zonal flow developing behind the ridge will place the WFO PAH forecast area just south of the faster flow to the north.
A trough of low pressure moving through the Northern Rockies brought breezy to windy and dry conditions to northern Arizona today.
Another beautiful day is in store for tomorrow with sunshine and low humidity helping boost temps back into the lower 80s. This will result in a wider temperature range across the area, with temps varying from the mid 50s in our deeper eastern valleys to the low to mid 60s elsewhere. With mainly clear skies, this will promote ridge/valley low temperature differences for at least the first couple of nights.
Winds picking up in the vicinity of the showers as mixing of the lower atmosphere occurs across the northwest. Main deterrent for convective development will be respectable capping with convective temperatures in the lower 90s which will likely limit any development until late afternoon at the earliest. The cold front will have moved out to the east by Wednesday morning, leaving cooler, drier weather for Wednesday. High pressure rushes through Wednesday afternoon and evening, continuing to reinforce drier air, but return flow will begin bringing some low level moisture in behind the high pressure system.
245 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 Upper level analysis has a ridge over the northern Plains, with a strong trof crossing the northern Rockies. At the surface, cold front has just moved through Rapid City, with very warm and dry air moving in from the west. Surface cold front will continue east this afternoon, with the Cap eroding by late afternoon/early evening. Further west - closer to the upper trof - ongoing showers and thunderstorms in central WY will move into northeast WY and western SD this afternoon and evening. Upper trof quickly shifts east with zonal flow taking over through Wednesday night. Temps will be about 10 degrees cooler on Wednesday behind the cold front.
Believe parts of MN will not shake the low clouds and stay cool and cloudy all day.
Upper low drifting east into Alberta this afternoon will be the main driver of our weather this period. A cold front that has pushed into wester North Dakota has allowed for a NW breeze across the CWA. Some return flow is expected Wednesday with another cold front to push across the area Wednesday Night. Temps will be a bit cooler with low 80s.
A sharp upper level trough will move across the region early this evening.
In time, the flow becomes more southwest toward the end of the short term and latter part of the week as troughing develops across the north central U.
A large area of high pressure will encompass much of the eastern third of the U. However, the pattern will become more active starting Wednesday night when the high pressure shifts east and a frontal system enters the Great Lakes Region.
126 PM PDT Tue Jun 27 2017 High pressure aloft over the region will weaken over the next several days as an upper-level trough over the Pacific Northwest brushes the area.
1035 AM PDT Tue Jun 27 2017 Updated Aviation Discussion High pressure aloft over the region will weaken over the next several days as an upper-level trough over the Pacific Northwest brushes the area.
401 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 A weak cold front will cross the region this afternoon bringing a chance of a shower or thundershower. High pressure build into the area tonight drying things out.
/issued 345 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017/ (Today and Tonight) An upper level high over northwestern Mexico and the Desert Southwest will weaken to some extent but move little today and tonight. Temperatures will be a little warmer today, especially across our northern and central counties where greater insolation is expected. Overnight lows are expected to be in the upper 60s across most of our southern and central counties, to the lower 70s for much of the Big Country.
Lows in the lower to mid 70s. Low level flow will veer to onshore near 10 knots in the lower levels with fairly deep moisture lingering across the area.
Issued by National Weather Service COLUMBIA SC 251 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 A weak upper level system will cross the area by this evening, but no precipitation is expected and dry and cooler weather will continue through Wednesday.
145 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 Upper low pressure will maintain cool temperature and the possibility for an isolated shower until this evening.
In addition, a coastal trough can be seen on 850/700 mb surfaces off the coast of South Texas. This is ensuring winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere are out of the ESE which brings in a good fetch of gulf moisture which is leading to those higher PW values. Things will be changing for tomorrow as the previously mentioned coastal trough slides to the northeast. With the drier air, high temperatures are expected to be about 5 degrees warmer than today.
358 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 Latest water vapor imagery loop shows a cyclonic spinning low over New York State with a longwave trough draped along the the mid-Atlantic.
310 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 A moisture-starved cold front will exit central NC this evening. Canadian high pressure will follow and extend over the Carolinas and southern Virginia Wednesday and Wednesday night. Canadian high pressure will build into the region. the air mass associated within the high is notably cooler and drier. This drier cooler air mass and a near calm sfc regime at the surface should allow temperatures to drop into the 50s overnight across the Piedmont, and near 60-lower 60s across the Sandhills and southern coastal plain. An area of high pressure at the surface coupled with rising heights aloft translates to dry and pleasant conditions for Wednesday and Wednesday night. After the seasonably cool start, afternoon temperatures will rebound into the low-mid 80s.
/issued 411 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017/ The recent upper pattern with a ridge over the western US and a trough over the east will break down with upper flow becoming mostly zonal.
/issued 926 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017/ The synoptic pattern aloft this more features ridging across the southwest, a large longwave trough over much of the eastern half of the country, and another ridge south of Florida. At the surface, a frontal boundary remains draped across the northern Florida peninsula while the Atlantic ridge axis stretches across the southern peninsula.
Meanwhile, H5 analysis places the region under northwest flow aloft, with a trough axis located from roughly Lake Erie southwestward through the local region while a ridge builds into the Plains west. By Wednesday the flow aloft becomes more zonal, with high pressure dominating at the surface, thus allowing for a few days of suppressed convection and dry conditions.
That dry airmass will modify slightly, but keep our weather pleasant through Wednesday, though highs will run ~5 degrees warmer. High pressure bringing that dry airmass will shift east of the region and bring a stronger south wind Wednesday night, which should start bringing in more moisture as well.
507 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 A weak cold front will cross the region this afternoon bringing a chance of a shower or thundershower. High pressure build into the area tonight drying things out.
539 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017 Widespread mid to upper level cloud cover across western and central North Dakota as of 2230 UTC continues to limit surface based heating and cap erosion along the occluding warm front between US Highways 83 and 85. As the low level jet increases this evening, upscale growth into a possible convective complex into the James River Valley is possible. At 2 PM CDT a warm front extended through southwest North Dakota followed by a cold front just entering the far west. On Wednesday the cold front will have moved through the region and showers will be ending by noon east. Cooler and dryer air will be in place. Minimum relative humidity will still fall into the lower 20s southwest but the gusty winds will have moved east by afternoon.
Fairly sharp upper trof swinging through the Great Lakes overnight, trailing a weakening boundary into the Ohio Valley.
132 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 A strong cold front will push across the area today reinforcing the unseasonably cool air across the forecast area.
238 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 A cold front will approach from the west through this evening and will likely aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms, a few of which may be strong to severe.
By tomorrow afternoon, a high pressure will exit the eastern United States, allowing for the winds to stay from the east to southeast locally and pick up some speeds.
Upper level ridge axis was located over eastern MT. Upper level ridge will move across the forecast area this afternoon and evening. Upper level low pressure system over eastern OR will move through the forecast area late tonight and Wed morning. Also cold frontal system will move through on Wed. Another upper level low pressure system over BC will move through late Thu into Fri morning for the next round of showers and thunderstorms.
Overnight lows will be around 70, slightly warmer along the immediate coastline.
An 80 knot jet streak moving ahead of the trough axis will set up over Wyoming's southern border. Warmer than normal temperatures promise deep mixing which will transfer momentum from higher levels to the surface resulting in another hot and breezy day for the area.
Very cold airmass aloft as this mornings sounding indicate freezing level around 6kft combined with strong diurnal heating is yielding capes upwards to around 1k joules producing scattered showers mainly from the Thumb and Saginaw Valley on north. Showers and Thunderstorms will develop over Wisconsin and spread east-southeast along a strengthening warm front that will be lifting north through lower Michigan tomorrow afternoon.
356 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 A cold front will pass through early this evening with high pressure building east from the OhiO Valley. The high passes south of the area Wednesday afternoon and night.
1106 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 The axis of the upper ridge is over the Rockies, and a trough over the Pacific Northwest is beginning to break down the ridge. Thermal ridge will shift over western SD, and temperatures will rise to the mid 80s to lower 90s. CAMs are showing a line of storms developing across western SD and moving into central SD this evening ahead of the cold front. Temps will be about 10 degrees cooler on Wednesday behind the cold front. Another weak wave associated with the upper trough will produce some showers/storms across northeastern WY and the Black Hills.
342 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017 Mid level troughing to our east is shifting further eastward allowing more zonal flow into the Plains with resultant pressure falls increasing southerly flow and low level moisture return. Evening convection across the High Plains will spread eastward but likely remain north of the area.