Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Well above normal temperatures today and even warmer readings are expected Tuesday with record highs possible for Austin. A developing Western Coast trough will shift SE and become stretched from the central plains to northern Baja Mexico. Stronger SW flow will develop Tuesday and advect warmer 925-850mb airmass from Mexico over the region.
The track of the storm through Tuesday night still looks consistent with previous model runs, although there remains some differences with position of the low as it deepens over the central plains. The GFS and NAM are more aggressive and further north with the low than the ECMWF. Further south, models are painting a bit more QPF with the cold front as it drops south late tonight through Tuesday morning, so may have to consider expanding Advisories for this areas as well. However, strong northwest downslope flow may still keep accumulations on the low side near the Colorado border.
The strong upper level trough will continue to move east northeastward from the Southeastern United States into the Mid Atlantic by Tuesday. Any leftover showers in the area will dissipate quickly this evening as drier and cooler air continue to work into the region.
1121 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017 Update A trough of low pressure will bring rain showers to the area today into tonight. A brief respite from the rain will occur on Tuesday as high pressure works through the region.
At the SFC, a narrow ridge of high pressure was noted over Eastern TX, with low pressure taking shape over the CO foothills. As a result, temperatures tonight are expected to be a little warmer over coastal SE TX/SW LA, while cooler readings are expected over East/South Central LA. Lows tomorrow night/WED morning will be considerably warmer, some 10-15F higher than tonight. A trailing cold front is progged to enter East TX WED morning and traverse the forecast area by Wed evening. winds will become southerly and increase from west to east after midnight and into Tuesday as a deepening area of low pressure east of the Rockies moves east across the Central Plains.
328 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017 Low pressure near the North Carolina coast will move off shore this evening and then track northeast along the coastline through Tuesday night. To our west, high pressure in the central plains will briefly ridge into the region on Tuesday.
Lows tonight will generally be in the 30s with highs tomorrow ranging from the low 40s across west central Kansas to around 60 degrees across south central Kansas. Winds then shift to the northwest tomorrow as a cold front slides through the CWA. This is due to a ridge of high pressure at the surface extending from the Intermountain West to the southern Plains. Below normal temperatures are also expected through the end of the week with highs generally in the 40s and lows in the low to mid 20s.
828 AM PST Mon Jan 23 2017 A cold upper level low will move southeastward from west of the coast near 130W and into Central California through Tuesday. High pressure will build in today through Tuesday leading to cool conditions through mid- week. The biggest aviation impact this morning is fog and freezing fog, affecting Klamath Falls and Medford. but areas of IFR cigs/vsbys in fog and freezing fog will develop again over the valleys late tonight into Tuesday morning. It will move south of the area this evening and weak high pressure will develop over the waters.
210 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017 A low pressure system passes overhead this afternoon and to the east tonight. Progressively colder mid and late week with passage of a cold front and lingering northwest flow. Any lingering precip will taper off quickly Tuesday night as moisture thins and upper ridging moves in.
Precipitation type will be a concern, with all models indicating a warm layer aloft supporting the potential for light freezing rain or sleet east of a line from Ogallala to Ainsworth tonight into Tuesday morning, so that has been added to the forecast. Aloft, the large scale pattern will feature a longwave trough across the western and central CONUS with a closed mid level-low center over roughly eastern NEB/southeast SD.
Onshore flow will will begin to strengthen late tonight as lee side trough develops over the High Plains. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to middle 50s with lower 60s along the immediate coast. Upper trough will move out of the southwest into the Plains on Tuesday.
Area of low clouds across northwest Arkansas is nearly gone with just a few counties in far NE Oklahoma with the low deck. Temperatures are being held down into the mid/upper 30s in these areas but clouds will erode by noon allowing temps to climb into the low/mid 50s by afternoon.
Areas of dense freezing fog developed this morning near the Tri-Cities, Hermiston, Walla Walla, and the lower Yakima Valley. The Dense Fog Advisory for the Lower Columbia Basin was extended to the OR Blue Mountain Foothills.
1248 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017 Periods of rain can be expected today as an upper level low pressure system moves northeast into the Mid Atlantic States. Weak high pressure and a drier airmass will build into the area for Tuesday. Any lingering precipitation this evening should taper off from west to east as the upper level low moves off the East Coast. Mid level ridging will then shift quickly east across the Upper Ohio Valley through the day on Tuesday.
A cold front is still on track to move across the forecast area Tuesday night.
55 As low pressure pulls off to the east wind speeds will diminish across Arkansas. High pressure over Oklahoma this morning will move into Arkansas this afternoon.
Tuesday will feature mostly dry and cloudy conditions with highs generally in the low to mid 40s.
Today occasional flurries/sprinkles developed across the I-35 corridor associated with a weak trough axis swinging across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. This light precipitation will taper off towards this evening as the trough axis exits and drier air builds in at mid-levels. Tonight into early Tuesday an area of high pressure briefly builds across the upper Mississippi River Valley with lows falling to the mid 20s to low 30s and patchy fog. As this low approaches from the south, precipitation chances will increase from south to north late Tuesday. Recent guidance is trending towards a slower start to precipitation, so forecast has been adjusted to back off the higher chances until after 00z (6pm) Tuesday.
This will set the stage for a mainly dry Tuesday as weak high pressure passes by.
Clouds should hold tight overnight and with little overall change in thermal profiles temperatures will be cooler overnight but continue above average. a cool upper trof shifts south across the area bringing slightly cooler temps to the region.
826 AM PST Mon Jan 23 2017 A cold upper level low will move southeastward from west of the coast near 130W and into Central California through Tuesday. High pressure will build in today through Tuesday leading to cool conditions through mid- week. but areas of IFR cigs/vsbys in fog and freezing fog will develop over the valleys late Monday night into Tuesday morning. It will move south of the area this evening and weak high pressure will develop over the waters.
In the short term, upper level pattern shows a trough-ridge-trough setup from west to east over the CONUS. It should burn off into the mid morning hours leaving a pleasant day in place with high temperatures reaching into the lower 50s for much of the area. This feature will quickly deepen as the trough advances from the west. Heading into the day on Tuesday, as a strong upper level jet advects over the region quickly developing the low and moving it off to the northeast. This will help give high temps a boost into the mid and upper 50s ahead of a cold front that will move through northeast and east central Kansas by late afternoon.
This will signal the beginning of a pattern change ahead of the next cold front drying out as it reaches the OH valley. Deep low pressure moving northeast toward the Great Lakes will initially bring us warm air advection as the period starts.
The occluded low over the Mid-Atlantic will move northeast overnight, with low amplitude ridging moving into the Southeast.
221 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017 A potent upper trough that brought tornadic severe weather across the portions of the Southeast yesterday and Sat night continues to push off to the east with lingering cloud cover and windy conditions the only vestiges of its presence over the TN Valley. Winds should continue to diminish further tonight with much cooler air (since Jan 9th) advecting southeast across the TN Valley as temperatures drop into the mid to upper 30s. Broad ridging will follow the exiting trough with any lingering cloud cover dissipating from southwest to northeast. As this occurs an elongated positively tilted broad trough will be moving across the western half of the CONUS bringing snowfall to the Rockies but likely bringing rainfall to the Southern Plains and Southeast.
Lee cyclogenesis is occurring across eastern CO as broad upper troughing overspreads the western US.
Given the high pressure gradient (pressure rise of 5 mb over past 3 hours) and the 25-50kts wind speeds aloft (via KHTX-VAD wind profile) the ongoing wind forecast looks good. The maximum temperatures for the day have likely already occurred earlier this morning (in the low to mid 50s) with temperatures gradually dropping or holding steady.
302 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017 Developing low pressure will move along the North Carolina coast tonight.
Upper level ridging will displace northwest flow aloft tonight.
By midweek a strong ridge will build over the Pacific Northwest. This will bring dry and cooler weather with an abundance of low clouds and fog in the valleys.
An upper level ridge moves across Texas today while an upper level trough currently over the Pacific northwest moves across the Great Basin today and the Central Plains Tuesday.
/issued 306 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017/ Will be under a ridge aloft as the next upper trough moves over CA.
Slightly cooler air on northwest winds will filter into the area tonight, but still well above normal.
Tonight and Tuesday: The upper low has shifted well to the east of the area this afternoon, as upper and surface ridging build into the area.
227 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017 Low pressure will bring rain mixing with snow to much of the area tonight, with mixed precipitation changing to snow in higher elevations.
An upper level low pressure area gathering over the western Great Basin today will deepen into a closed upper level low pressure system as it crosses over the northern part of the Colorado Front Range late Tuesday morning. A Pacific cold front will sweep eastward and cross through TAF sites around or shortly after daybreak. Progressive upper ridging the first half of today will quickly yield to increasing southwesterly flow this afternoon and tonight in advance of our next wind maker tomorrow. Fortunately, it appears that we will avoid the threat of a high wind event as the lower- tropospheric speed max shifts east of the area by late morning, before mixing will be able to tap into the strongest winds.
Strong low pressure system over northeastern Georgia and northwestern South Carolina early this morning will move off the North Carolina coast tonight. Models in good agreement that strong low pressure system over the southeastern states will move out to sea off the Carolina coast tonight. With the gusty northwest winds and cloudy skies, look for little rise in temperatures with afternoon highs closer to the cooler 00z NAM MOS in the mid 40s northwest to around 50 southeast. Models in agreement that an upper low will develop in western states trough on Tuesday.
Temps should be able to climb into the lower 80s out west to mid/upper 70s across the Victoria Crossroads.
With south-southwest winds tonight, temperatures will be warmer than last night, with lows expected to be in the mid to upper 40s. On Tuesday, an upper low will move from Wyoming into Nebraska, with a broad upper trough extending back into the southwestern states. A dry surface cold front will move across the area Tuesday night, shifting the winds the northwest.
1142 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017 Northwest winds of 10 to 15 knots will continue ease through the afternoon hours with a light and variable wind expected overnight as high pressure settles over the region.
Reports of freezing Drizzle came in this morning between 7-8 am. The general overall upper-level large-scale low pressure trough will persist over the region keeping skies at least mostly cloudy through most of this week.
The forecast has been updated to reflect the higher snow total amounts that are now anticipated. Large upper level low spinning off the coast of Washington and Oregon is starting to move southeast, and will open up and extend eastward by late this afternoon. Overnight the axis will move through as a narrow high- amplitude ridge develops just offshore in its wake. By Wed afternoon, this ridge tilts northeast into western Canada, and a trough axis extends from near Lake Hudson back west-southwest into Idaho and Oregon. Highs Tuesday will be cooler, with highs struggling to reach freezing anywhere in the CWA.
Low level moisture is gradually increasing along with some destabilization and increased winds aloft and we are starting to see an increase in both the ridgetop orographic snow, and some shallow banding upstream. A cold front will push down over the state while mid and upper level winds turn northwesterly.
250 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017 WV imagery shows an upper-lvl ridge spanning the central CONUS, resulting in mostly sunny skies and an unseasonably warm day across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico as breezy downslope warming pumps afternoon temps into the 70s at many locations. Unfortunately, to the west, a couple of troughs are muscling their way east, and will continue shunting the ridge east, w/zonal flow aloft transitioning to SW overnight. An upper trough currently off the OR/CA coast is forecast to merge w/another just to its east and arrive over SD/NE in around 24 hours. Leeside troughing on the Front Range ahead of this feature will increase SW flow overnight, setting things up for a another wind event Tuesday.
1256 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017 The cloud cover over the Ozarks was slowly eroding from west to east as an upper level ridge was building over the region. Temperatures tonight will drop into the 30s as the skies remain clear and the upper ridge remains overhead. An approaching area of low pressure will move across the Plains on its way towards the Great Lakes through the day Tuesday. The low will remain to the northwest of the Ozarks with a dry frontal passage for the area. This will bring the potential for wind gusts Tuesday afternoon between 35 and 40 mph at times as temperatures climb into the lower to middle 60s.
further south, precipitation fell as Freezing Drizzle from north of Circle to Sidney. A Freezing Rain Advisory is in effect until 8 pm. A couple of upper low, one over central Canada, the second one is moving through the western states.
157 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017 A strong low pressure center over the Carolinas will move off the Mid-Atlantic Coast tonight. A few light showers are possible through the afternoon although the air mass will be drying overnight as the low moves slowly away from the area. A dry pressure ridge moves into the area Tuesday and will remain over the area through Tuesday night.
412 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017 Rain chances will continue this evening as a low pressure system continues to move southeast of the region.
Clouds in place through the night should limit the radiational cooling under the ridge. with access to slightly cooler air.
1034 AM PST Mon Jan 23 2017 Showers, isolated thunderstorms, and mountain snow will continue through Tuesday as a cold low pressure system moves overhead.
356 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017 An area of low pressure will lift northeast away from the area tonight.
1115 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017 Widespread stratus across the forecast area early this morning will be sticking around through today as high pressure over the area begins to move off slowly to the east through this afternoon. Low pressure over central Rockies will then push into central Plains late this afternoon through tonight. Inverted trough and mid level frontal zone expected to set up in the vicinity of I-90 east of the Missouri River after midnight tonight. Low temperatures tonight will again stay pretty mild in the upper 20s with continued warm advection ahead of the low and widespread cloud cover.
1239 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017 Weakening low pressure will pass over the Carolinas today before lifting northeast away from the area. High pressure will then prevail through mid week.
High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will interact with a low pressure system and associated cold front in the Central Plains on Tuesday.
The upper-level cyclone responsible for the latest round of inclement weather is moving rapidly east into the Carolinas early this morning. This will keep temperatures in the low/mid 50s in most areas this afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the mid 30s, with a few areas possibly falling below freezing around sunrise. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will develop on Tuesday as the ridge axis shifts east. Expect highs on Tuesday in the low/mid 60s.
Temperatures will fall a bit this morning and then rise a couple of degrees later this afternoon, topping out cooler than yesterday.
A strong low pressure system will bring scattered to numerous rain showers and snow showers to the region today along with areas of strong winds.
Skies will clear from the west tonight with mostly sunny skies for Tuesday as the H5 ridge builds over the region. Some areas in the higher elevations could remain strong and gusty a little further into the evening.
As these two features fade and a weak 500 mb ridge becomes positioned directly over the region, drier weather will prevail tonight and Sunday.
143 AM EST Sat Nov 26 2016 A weakening cold front will cross the commonwealth overnight.
1009 PM MST Fri Nov 25 2016 Longwave upper ridging moves over the area tonight then starts to back to the southwest Saturday ahead of a low pressure system moving ashore along the west coast. High temperatures Saturday about 4F to 7F warmer per 850mb temperatures with upper 50s to low 60s. An upper level trough begins to swing through the southwestern United States bringing southerly winds and increasing cloud cover to the area Saturday night with lows generally in the lower 30s across the region.
There will also be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the extreme eastern Permian Basin late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night as large scale lift increases significantly ahead of a Pacific cold front. This will allow cooler air and below normal temperatures to invade the area.
In addition to reduced visibility, confidence is growing that freezing fog will be an issue if/when/where road surfaces are able to fall below freezing. Given warm ground temperatures, this would be most likely occur on area bridges and overpasses. while either side of the band is about 15 degrees warmer.
A ridge builds across the region bringing dry air to the forecast area. Models suggest temperatures in the low teens but current thinking is a similar pattern to last night's with lows in the upper teens and 20s. Highs on Saturday will be well above normal with highs in the low 60s, which is 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Upper level ridging will remain in place Saturday night with dry conditions. During this time an amplified upper level trough will dig across California into the Four Corners Region. On Sunday, the leading upper level trough will lift northeast across the Central Plains.
Showers will increase in coverage and intensity as the system ejects out and moisture deepens late Sunday morning through the afternoon, then this round of showers may push out of the CWA before the cold front arrives, providing a bit of a break during the evening.
/Issued 405 PM CST Fri Nov 25 2016/ High pressure will continue over the area for the next day. An upper level trough will dig down from the Pacific Northwest bringing cooler air. This moisture looks to be elevated, and with the cold front working towards the area, there could be some forcing and instability to generate some early day showers and or thunderstorms.
1225 AM EST Sat Nov 26 2016 Upper trough moves through the area tonight bringing some low clouds and MVFR cigs to KTRI and KTYS overnight.
The high moves further east tomorrow. As upper trof nudges closer to the area.
The upper level ridge dominating weather the previous two days has peaked in its magnitude and is starting to break down as two low pressures approach: one from the west and one from the south. After today, daily highs will be closer to normal, with the cloud cover keeping overnight lows warmer than normal.
Highs have reached into the low/middle 50s across the forecast area. Still anticipate lows will drop into the 30s, and may stay a few degrees warmer out west where southerly winds develop later tonight. Highs tomorrow mix into the lower 60s with southwest winds increasing to 10-15mph by the mid afternoon hours. As upper ridge moves east Saturday night and upper trough crosses the SW U. Short and medium range models in pretty good agreement with strong upper trough crossing the Plains Sunday and Sunday night.
1134 PM EST Fri Nov 25 2016 A weak cold front will move offshore overnight.
450 AM EST Sat Nov 26 2016 Observations indicate low VFR and MVFR stratus extending well upstream just past the ridge axis positioned west of Lake Michigan. Ridge axis will work through the area around 06z tonight increasing confidence that cigs will finally mix out. Rather seasonable late November temperature regime, readings again topping out in the lower 40s. Outside of managing any pesky near term cloud trends, benign weather conditions to finish off the holiday weekend as the region settles within low level southerly flow beneath building upper ridging.
102 AM EST Sat Nov 26 2016 A weakening cold front will cross the commonwealth overnight.
Lows will primarily be in the lower to middle 30s. It will gradually become warmer with highs in the lower to middle 40s Saturday and into the upper 40s to lower 50s on Sunday.
Through the next 24 hours, high pressure at the surface and aloft will keep dry and warm weather in place. Upper level ridge was over Wyoming and northern Colorado while a weak upper level trough was over southern Colorado and New Mexico. Both ridge and trough will shift east of Colorado on Saturday allowing a somewhat stronger high pressure ridge to build in from Utah. orographic forcing will improve as mountain top flow shifts more west to northwest and some cold advection behind the trof. Given some light forcing have bumped up pops just a bit for the sun morning hours and also expect some slightly cooler temperatures.
Highs will likely be cooler in the east/northeast with readings in the 42-47 degree range. High pressure will drift from southeast Kansas to east Tennessee during the short term keeping our weather quiet and temperatures cool.
With low level surface flow out of the southeast, could see fog spread as far west as the Buffalo Ridge, but cams keep it east of there for now. Very light southerly flow will begin to respond at the surface as low pressure begins to deepen to the southwest. By Sunday a strong upper level low pressure will spread into Nebraska.
Surface analysis this evening places a 1031 mb ridge of high pressure centered over the Middle Mississippi Valley. 9 micron satellite trends over the past several hours has shown an area of low stratus encompassing portions of the Lower East Arkansas, West Tennessee and Northwest Mississippi. High pressure will gradually build into the region tonight. Temperatures will be a little cooler than tonight with lows Sunday morning in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Temperatures will be warmer on Sunday with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. By Sunday night, a large storm system will be moving across Nebraska with a cold front moving through the southern plains.