Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
229 AM MST Wed May 26 2021 Passing weather disturbances will brush the Desert Southwest and keep strong high pressure centered over Mexico. Water vapor imagery shows troughing over portions of the western CONUS with an embedded short wave spreading high clouds over the forecast area early this morning. This is a combination of the preceding afternoon being warmer than the previous day as well as the cloudiness. In fact, PHX looks to be a bit warmer than yesterday with very little spread evident in the NBM. The flow over the northeast Pacific and western CONUS amplifies over the weekend with a ridge of high pressure building near the West Coast. But just downstream of the ridge, a split develops in the flow leading to weak troughing over AZ, CA, and northwest Mexico.
/issued 321 AM CDT Wed May 26 2021/ Upper level short wave ridging will move slowly across the forecast area today, shifting eastward to western Oklahoma by peak heating. This ridging will be replaced by west-southwest mid to upper flow that will help mix the dryline eastward toward the TX-NM state line, and possibly a county or so deep into the forecast area by late afternoon. While the bulk of the upper level support will be well to the north of the forecast area in closer proximity to an upper level trough moving eastward across the northern Plains, isolated convective initiation is expected across the western part of the forecast area late this afternoon as winds near the dryline become more confluent and help overcome any lingering cap.
1137 AM MDT Wed May 26 2021 Developing low pressure system to our west beginning to increase our cloud coverage this morning based on latest satellite imagery. A bit quieter on Thursday in the wake of the low as minor ridging builds in as pockets of vorticity advection move through the region in the afternoon for small chance of an isolated shower or mainly garden variety thunderstorm. Temperatures on the cooler side by about ten degrees compared to today.
Highlights: * Dry and Breezy Thursday (see fire weather section below for fire concerns) * A few thunderstorms possible Memorial Day Weekend * Big warm-up to end the weekend and start June A trough passing through the PacNW will bring enhanced afternoon and evening breezes to the region Thursday with gusts generally peaking in the 25-35 mph range. A weak trough moves across the west over the weekend, bringing increasing instability to the region.
Some isolated to scattered severe convection will be possible in the mid to late afternoon ahead of a cold front moving in from the northwest.
1104 AM CDT Wed May 26 2021 A few showers and thunderstorms will remain possible near and south of I-70 as a cold front approaches the area, while areas north see mostly sunny skies today. Expect highs in the low to mid 80s across central and southeast Illinois.
Tranquil conditions will continue until Thursday afternoon, when isolated to scattered thunderstorms will begin developing across Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel ahead of an approaching cold front.
Ridging aloft will still extend overhead over much of the area and subsidence underneath this feature will tend to limit convective development. Highs on Thursday are forecast to range in the upper 80s to lower 90s inland and in the lower to mid 80s along the immediate coast and beaches.
For Thursday into Thursday night, models show a low pressure system moving from Iowa into central Illinois. This will slowly drag a cold front toward the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys.
401 PM EDT Wed May 26 2021 Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are moving across the region early this evening ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will cross the area tonight, behind it drier and much cooler air arrives for the end of the week. Cold front will push through the area overnight, and winds will become quite gusty out of the north behind it as strong cold air advection begins. Thursday will be quieter with high pressure building into the region behind departing cold front. High temperatures Thursday afternoon will reach the upper 50s to lower 70s, warmest in the lower Connecticut river valley. Thursday night will be quite cold with continued cold air advection and high ridging into the area from Canada.
Temps were in the 70s to around 80, or about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday at this time. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will spread across Middle Tennessee through the afternoon as a trough moves slowly eastward.
WIND: pressure gradient tightens as the low approaches with a strong easterly component kicking in by early morning. TEMPS: Passage of dry line/cold front yesterday dropped humidities and temps significantly, with a pretty nice spring day across the region today.
A weak trough of low pressure is moving across The Desert Southwest today. This trough is tapping into a stream of high level moisture that originates south of Hawai'i.
/CME/ Prior discussion below: Some showers persisting across the north this morning as an upper level disturbance ripples through the southeast, signaling a shift in the pattern from the ridging that has dominated the SE CONUS. Both high pressure at the surface and aloft will finally begin weakening off the southeast coast of the United States heading into Memorial Day Weekend.
While isolated convective showers/perhaps a storm cannot entirely be ruled out across the southeastern portions of the area as the surface front moves through late this afternoon into the evening, limited instability due to the lingering cloud cover along with weak midlevel subsidence in the wake of the leading trough appear likely to significantly limit this activity.
Today will be about 8-15 degrees warmer than yesterday with highs in the 60s over the mountains and 70s in the lower elevations. We will have increasing clouds tonight ahead of the next Pacific trough. The surface cold front associated with the trough will cause gusty winds to the forecast area Thursday afternoon and evening. One weather impact will be the patchy blowing dust in the Lower Columbia Basin.
Tonight and Thursday Abundant cloud cover will quickly dissipate early this evening with the loss of daytime heating as high pressure builds in across southern Canada with ridging across the Great Lakes region. The cold temperatures across far north-central Wisconsin are expected to get close to or just below freezing tonight. A low pressure system developing across the central Plains will bring increasing clouds later tonight, with a swath of light rain and cooler weather expected during the day on Thursday. Northeast winds are expected to increase on Thursday as the low passes to the south.
We should continue to see above seasonal daytime temperatures with highs in the lower to mid 90s and an overnight low tonight in the mid to upper 60s.
Activity should exit the western Nebraska panhandle between 6 to 8 pm this evening (00z to 02z) with cooler temperatures expected overnight. A much drier airmass will be over the area on Thursday with a small chance of a few brief showers or thunder showers, mainly near the ridges and mountains across the area.
The 500 mb ridging will be strengthening over the region throughout the day into tonight and Thurs. This increased 500 mb ridging will likely limit the conv formation over the region today and tonight. /issued 332 AM CDT Wed May 26 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): Mid-level ridging will continue to build over Deep South Texas for the short term. Water levels along the lower Texas coast have been about a foot over the predicted tides over the last few days, but guidance is showing water levels beginning to lower as swell periods and wave heights decrease.
A Canadian high pressure brought cool temperatures this morning, with lows in the 40s.
A secondary line of storms is behind this primary line by about 50-75 miles and seems to be associated with the cold front moving eastward. Also, the southern two-thirds of the area should see a cold front move west to east and windy WNW wind to follow through the early evening. Another strong trough moves into Washington late Thursday pushing high-level moisture and clouds over NW WY overnight. After Thursday's brief ridge, a trough will move east from Washington, clipping the northern half of our area.
317 PM EDT Wed May 26 2021 The upper level ridging shifts east.
337 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021 Latest water vapor satellite loop shows a mid level trough over western Montana and western Wyoming at 1945Z. Profilers show some perturbations emanating from the Rockies out into the high plains. Surface analysis had a dryline in eastern Colorado along or just east of the front range with a warm front extending from southeast Wyoming through northwest Kansas and into central Kansas at 18Z. CAMS have had a difficult time resolving the convection today as they have not done well with the development in central Kansas along the warm front. Outflow from earlier convection helped to increase convergence along the warm front for additional storm development. Another round of severe convection is expected across northeast and east central Kansas with the higher probability near and south of the boundary in the afternoon.
131 PM EDT Wed May 26 2021 Showers and thunderstorms are expected today and this evening with the approach and passage of a cold front.
1206 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021 A cold front will move through the area this morning. This system will continue to work east across the Rockies today while also drawing up a short wave trough from the Desert Southwest. This short wave trough is expected to advance out ahead and track across Iowa and Wisconsin Thursday.
Some light precipitation may be possible up through the Highway 200 area, but a pretty sharp drop-off in precipitation totals is likely on the northern periphery of the precipitation shield. As colder air filters in the with the low crossing Thursday morning, can't rule out some snow mixed in but precipitation should be mostly rain otherwise. To the north, a dry air mass and lighter winds should allow good radiative cooling to bring low temperatures well into the 30s Thursday morning, with the Bottineau/Rolette area likely falling below freezing (as further supported by NBM probabilities). Further evaluation will be needed tonight with the potential for any of these areas to fall below freezing Thursday morning.
RAP analysis at 18Z shows a mid-level ridge over Texas. Surface flow out of the S/SE at 5-10mph has us in a warm, moist environment with dew points mainly in the low to mid 70s. There's been more sun across the Coastal Plains and thus temperatures are already in the upper 80s there, while most other locations are in the low to mid 80s. Cool spots as usual are Rocksprings and Boerne in the low to mid 70s as cloud cover has been slow to scatter out over western portions of south-central Texas. Highs should still reach the low to maybe mid 90s south and west once the sun is able to reach those areas this afternoon. Only minor differences between today and tomorrow are no rain tomorrow and slightly warmer highs potentially reaching the upper 90s far SW i.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night): 500 mb ridging will build over the RGV throughout Thur Night maintaining pretty hot conditions with near zero pops.
Temperatures are already running several degrees warmer than this time 24 hours ago, and are expected to similarly translate over to afternoon highs. Farther north, an upper level low will approach the Pacific Northwest, dragging a frontal boundary along and to the south through Oregon. Unfortunately for the vast majority California -- exclusion being the far northwest coast Del Norte/Humboldt areas -- high pressure to the south will win, allowing dry conditions to prevail.
Upper trough has moved into Montana this morning taking the showers and thunderstorms with it. Isolated rain showers will develop in eastern Valley County until around noon but the main forecast is sunny and warmer today and quite a bit warmer Thursday as an upper ridge comes in from the west. Next Pacific trough will push a surface cold front through our CWA Thursday night, with a chance of rain showers in the mountains of Baker County and Valley County.
A combination of a stationary front, warm front, and dry line will all help to initiate several storms across western and north central Nebraska and into northern Kansas. Weak ridging will then allow for quiet weather to return once again for the end of the week. Cooler air also pushes in for the end of the week with highs ranging from the mid 50s (across the north) to the low 70s (south of I-80) on Thursday.
The 850 mb thermal ridge will continue to strengthen to between 20- 23 deg C across the area with surface temperatures following suit and rising just a bit higher than today into the upper 80s and low 90s.
Highs there are expected to reach the lower 50s today, with close to 60 degrees along the Dakotas border. An H5 upper trough continues pushing eastward into northern Minnesota and into the Great Lakes region this morning. Temperatures this morning are already much cooler, with widespread 30s and 40s.
As the storms move east overnight a cold front will move into southwest Kansas by early Thursday morning as an upper level trough exits the Rockies and begins to cross the central United States. By evening this cold front is currently forecast to extend from west to east along the Oklahoma border and across South Central kansas. As the cold front crosses Western Kansas on Thursday Gusty North winds and some cooler air will begin to return to Western Kansas behind this front highs will climb into the eighties while near 90Â° temperatures will be possible along and just south of this front.
A mid level trof currently situated over the Intermountain West will slide east throughout the day Thursday and into Missouri by Thursday evening. A trailing cold front will be draped from northern Missouri southwest into northwestern Oklahoma by late in the day.
325 PM EDT Wed May 26 2021 Showers and thunderstorms will accompany passage of a cold front this evening. Building high pressure should return dry weather and seasonable temperatures to the region through Thursday as it tracks across the Great Lakes region.
Other areas will be a few degrees warmer. For Thu, our area will be in the s/w ridge axis and this shows up in warming temps in the H7 to H5 layer.
Recent HRRR runs have also suggested a wake low/gravity wave potential producing gusty winds behind the convection, which makes sense considering it will be in the inversion area north of the warm front. Confidence in the details will not be great, but there appears to be a weak long wave trough passage early next work week which will eventually mature into a more pronounced mean through through the MS Valley to end the period.
326 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021 Summary: Much cooler temperatures are on tap for the next several days with the possibility of frost. A secondary cold front pushed through this morning allowing for cooler temperatures to move into the region with highs in the mid 50s over the Arrowhead to the lower 60s further south and into northwest Wisconsin. Behind the cold front is cooler air that will stick around through much of the week. Overnight lows for Thursday look to be in the low 30s which has lead to a Frost Advisory over our far northern counties tonight, and potentially over a large area Thursday night with Freeze Warnings possible. With the cooler air in place some models are hinting at snow for our far southern zones by Thursday afternoon as low pressure propagates to the south of the Northland.
A high pressure centered in the Western Atlantic off the southeast coast will be the main influence of our weather overnight tonight, keeping rain chances near nil and moderate breezes across our coastal waters.
348 PM EDT Wed May 26 2021 A few isolated showers or thunderstorms this evening as a cold front sweeps through the area. Drier and cooler air will then move in overnight into Thursday.
223 PM MDT Wed May 26 2021 Upper trough axis moving into Livingston vicinity at this time and will track over our CWA through the rest of the day and evening. Locations east of Billings look to get best shot of precipitation as upper trough lingers along the Dakota border late this evening. Ridging behind the low will bring mostly sunny skies and dry conditions to the region Thursday, although low clouds may persist along the Dakota border area. High temperatures will range from the lower 70s west to around 50 along the eastern state line.
Issued by National Weather Service Cleveland OH 142 PM EDT Wed May 26 2021 Shower and storm chances increase today as a cold front drops into the region.
The exiting closed low pressure system continues to create an axis of wrap around moisture, oriented from the southern Mission valley south and east through the Missoula valley and into southwest Montana. Precipitation should decrease significantly through after sunset this evening, with high pressure building over the region. Thursday will be a generally dry and warmer day ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front is anticipated to pass Thursday evening, with winds shifting to the northwest and staying breezy through the night.
Thu night a cold front aided by convective outflow will move s arriving in the nrn PB 15Z- 18Z/Fri. Per NAM12 high temps on Fri n of I-10 could be much cooler and well below normal. In either case on Sat the boundary layer will struggle to recover from cooler temps and with mid-level ridging it seems like this would be a down day wrt convective potential. Indications are that severe potential on Sun will ramp up with ridge axis to e, broadly difluent flow aloft, and the nose of a 70kt 3h jet igniting storms along the dryline across the wrn CWFA. Thereafter models continue support an active period as the mid/upper low remains across the Desert SW thru Wed or so.
Inland locations again are expected to reach the lower to mid 90s.
1143 AM CDT Wed May 26 2021 High pressure and weak ridging across the area this morning has kept skies clear across the area, with temperatures predominately in the 50s. Given the CAA continuing across the area with the high pressure and increasing cloud cover ahead of the short wave, highs today remain on the cooler side, from the mid 60s to mid/upper 70s across the southern third of our area. Ahead of this, an 850 mb warm front will set up shop north of Hwy 14, providing warm air and moisture advection. However, instability is lacking, with most models producing less than 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE, with the highest values near the MO River. As for the excessive rainfall threat, shear vectors parallel to the warm front would suggest some potential for training storms.
The arrival of a cold front on Thursday will bring the chance of showers and gusty west winds.
Issued by National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1217 PM EDT Wed May 26 2021 Shower and storm chances increase today as a cold front drops into the region.
254 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021 A cool day across the area with northerly flow keeping low level dew points pretty low, mostly in the lower to mid 40s. On Thursday the upper level low collapses south and should keep a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms throughout the day. Day time temperatures will be much cooler than we have felt lately, running about 15 to 20 degrees below normal. This low pressure slowly shifts southeast on Thursday night and should take the precipitation chances with it.
High pressure will remain over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico leading to light onshore winds.
249 PM MDT Wed May 26 2021 Upper level analysis has a trof extending down the Rockies and a ridge over the High Plains, resulting in southwest flow across the forecast area. At the surface, an area of low pressure is located over southeastern Wyoming with a warm front extending across the Nebraska/Kansas line. Sunny and warmer conditions are mainly south of I-90. The warm front will continue to push northward as MLCAPE values continue to increase this afternoon. The northern extent of severe storms will be limited, with the warm front expected to extend across nebraska. The upper low will track slowly eastward along the ND/SD border on Thursday.
1258 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021 A few showers and thunderstorms will remain possible near and south of I-70 as a cold front approaches the area, while areas north see mostly sunny skies today. Expect highs in the low to mid 80s across central and southeast Illinois.
Based on the time arrival tool, the showers in NW SD should reach the Mobridge area between 17-18Z. As the system heads east overnight, more widespread pcpn is expected to break out over the forecast area, and then linger into much of Thursday as an upper trof advects across the area.
Tonight, south to southeasterly winds will relax to around 5 MPH and low temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s areawide. Although the upper level ridge will dominate the local weather conditions, sufficient low level moisture could result in a few diurnally driven showers in the afternoon. Benign weather conditions expected Thursday night with lows once again in the low to mid 70s.
Previous discussion: Low pressure will bring increasing rain chances to portions of NE Montana today, mainly south of the Missouri River.
Currently, highs will likely occur shortly after sunrise, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 40s. These temperatures aloft will reflect cooler temperatures at the surface as strong mixing develops.
Winds stay easterly as the system approaches keeping temps on the cooler side compared to the past few days.
533 PM MDT Wed May 26 2021 Upper level analysis has a trof extending down the Rockies and a ridge over the High Plains, resulting in southwest flow across the forecast area. At the surface, an area of low pressure is located over southeastern Wyoming with a warm front extending across the Nebraska/Kansas line. Sunny and warmer conditions are mainly south of I-90. The warm front will continue to push northward as MLCAPE values continue to increase this afternoon. The northern extent of severe storms will be limited, with the warm front expected to extend across nebraska. The upper low will track slowly eastward along the ND/SD border on Thursday.
Highs on Thursday trend warmer and will mostly be in the 80s.
Another rinse and repeat forecast on the books this evening as dominant high pressure maintains control over the local regime. SE/ESE winds 10-15 kt through this evening will gradually veer to S/SSW and diminish to 5-10 kt overnight and continue through late Thursday morning as the ridge axis sags southward.
1045 PM EDT Wed May 26 2021 Much cooler and drier air will pour across the Lower Great Lakes region tonight in the wake of an exiting cold front.
750 PM EDT Wed May 26 2021 Drier and cooler air behind a cold front will filter in overnight into Thursday.
High temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 70s. Low temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 40s.
Otherwise, the forecast was updated to reflect cooler temperatures and waning rain chances.
647 PM EDT Wed May 26 2021 Scattered showers and storms will gradually diminish as the evening progresses, and a cold front will cross the remainder of the commonwealth overnight.
Southwest flow aloft has developed over the Pacific Northwest ahead of an incoming trough, which will move onshore Thursday. This will bring another round of precipitation to the area along with cooler temperatures. The peak will coincide with the afternoon high temperatures and the lowest humidities. The upper level trough will move out to the east Thursday night, and a strong upper level ridge will build into the area.
/issued 256 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night): 500 mb ridging will build over the RGV throughout Thur Night maintaining pretty hot conditions with near zero pops.
The cold front continues on course, moving onshore in the early morning tomorrow. Although winds ahead of the front will be southerly, the early timing of the front will bring in increased cloud cover through the day, resulting in temperatures around ten degrees cooler than today. After tomorrow it's all about a building ridge, offshore flow, and warming temperatures.