Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1127 PM CDT Thu Jun 2 2022 Broad upper trough stretches from Ontario down through the Great Lakes region and into the Ohio Valley. Right now current indications are that the TX/OK Panhandles along with western OK will have the higher storm chances tonight into Fri morning. Except for a few sprinkles/isolated showers, measurable precip is expected to remain west of the area across the high Plains.
Readings in the low 50s were common over the CWA. Another chilly night is expected with lows dropping back into the low to mid 50s. Light southeast breezes are expected as high pressure exits east of the area.
A weak cold front moving through the area this afternoon may be able to spark a shower or weak thunderstorm in the far eastern portions of the CWA, but the chance is small (about 20-25%). With deep mixing today temperatures have risen into the low to mid 70s with RH values expected to bottom out below 30 percent. Today's cold front will be stationary over Iowa on Saturday and a piece of energy moving along the boundary will bring the chance for showers to the forecast area.
A cold front will slowly push into Alabama and Georgia on Friday, which will lead to increased showers and thunderstorm coverage for all terminals. Weak high pressure should keep much of the region dry; however, it is possible for a few showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon should any of the clouds break the cap. Tonight, temperatures drop in to the low 70s. Tomorrow, another warm and muggy day is on tap with high temperatures rising into the low to mid 90s. A cold front is expected to move through the region which will slightly increase the odds of precipitation; however, it will be lacking in terms of forcing.
358 AM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022 Today and Tonight: Cooler than normal through the period. Early morning surface analysis had a weak cold front draped across our southeast zones with a >1016mb high centered over the central Plains. Cooler and drier air will filter into our CWA from the northwest through tonight. Clouds will be on the decrease tonight and as a cooler drier airmass settles into our CWA morning lows will be in the low to mid 60s.
232 AM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022 Upper air pattern features a ridge over western North America and a trough over Hudson Bay/Canada. This will bring pleasant weather with plenty of sunshine, low humidity, light winds, and temperatures warming into the low 80s in the afternoons and dropping into the 50s overnight.
There is a back door cold front entering the northeast corner of the CWA. But, the set up supports fog potential (cool airmass, light winds, clear skies, and a surface pressure "trof" in the form of the gradually becoming stationary cold front). That pattern consisting of a mid level low near Hudson's Bay, with an upstream ridge over the Rockies. Flow around the upper low will tend to keep a cooler airmass over the region into the weekend, along with several chances of rain. The highest chances for any convection would appear to exist over the south central CWA through the period.
Strong mixing and steep lapse rates behind the trough will not only usher in much lower dewpoints but also some gusty winds (20 to maybe 25 mph) during peak heating. These models do drop values into the 30 to 35 degree range for much of the area between 18 and 21Z and this is entirely possible given upstream obs this time of night behind the trough in the mid 30s in spots without any mixing. Plenty of sunshine to be had both days with highs well into the 70s (near Lk Mi cooler temps with NW flow). Period will be characterized by a more zonal flow with a baroclinic zone starting out north of the area Sat night into Sun night as high pressure tries to hold the front back.
1128 PM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022 A cold front and weak area of low pressure slowly shift through the region tonight and exit east on Friday with a trailing trough remaining in the vicinity.
Instability is on the lower end however we could still see a few strong elevated storms early Saturday morning given steeper mid-level lapse rates and directional shear in 700- 500mb layer.
For tonight, benign conditions persist as a ridge tracks just north of the region. These lower dew points should also allow for a decent ridge/valley split during each overnight as cold air drains into the valleys, but not expecting even the highest mountain valleys to cool enough to support any frost. Daytime highs will be near normal values, generally in the lower 80s across the lower elevations.
Only light showers remain across the southern half of the Midsouth with drier, cooler air filtering in from the north. Overnight lows should be mostly in the low to middle 60s. High temperatures should be in the low to middle 80s. Expect highs in the lower 80s with comfortable humidity and lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s each morning.
Temperatures are expected to be warm, with highs in the upper 70s to the low 80s. Expect another chance of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening as a cold front moves south/southeast across the area.
311 AM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022 High pressure will move slowly east across the area today through Saturday, resulting in dry weather, lower humidity and mostly clear skies.
318 AM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022 Mostly sunny skies with seasonable temperatures in the lower 80s can be expected across central Illinois both today and Saturday.
1114 PM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022 Dry weather returns tonight through the weekend under building high pressure. The last of the showers will exit Tucker county WV through around midnight with an exiting cold front. Building high pressure under broad upper troughing should maintain dry weather and near seasonable temperatures overnight and Friday.
Negative H5 geopotential height anomaly emanating from Canada persists Saturday supporting cooler than normal conditions through the weekend. Low-level anticyclone moves east into the Tri-State region and builds downstream of slowing upper ridge axis while the upper pattern remains governed by low amplitude longwave troughing over the eastern half of CONUS. H8 thermal troughing mutes highs near 70F while cloud cover increases during the afternoon.
The low clouds will begin to lift and break through the afternoon returning to MVFR to VFR this evening.
345 AM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 A cold front moves through this morning with seasonably cool and dry weather expected this weekend. 315 AM Update: A few showers are lingering around the region early this morning as a cold front makes its way through CNY and NEPA later this morning. With the high LCLs this afternoon with the dry air advecting in it will be tough to get anything to reach the ground so PoPs were removed for this afternoon. High pressure will remain in place to close out the weekend.
High pressure is currently centered over western Kansas this afternoon with north to northwesterly winds of 10 to 15 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH. Discussion: Gusty northwest winds will quickly diminish this evening as temperatures cool and the atmosphere decouples with high pressure passing to our south. Ridging in place to our west that brought calm, pleasant weather to the area will break down Friday night as a closed low north of Minnesota slowly wobbles south. Concurrently, a surge of southerly flow will return to the lower levels, sending warmth and moisture back into the eastern Plains and Midwest.
1149 PM PDT Thu Jun 2 2022 Cooler and breezier conditions throughout the forecast area today as some onshore flow impacts the area. This flow pattern is associated with a trough in the Pacific Northwest that is nudging the ridge pattern we had the last few days eastward.
210 AM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 Dry weather returns tonight through the weekend under building high pressure. The last of the showers will exit Tucker county WV through around midnight with an exiting cold front. Building high pressure under broad upper troughing should maintain dry weather and near seasonable temperatures overnight and Friday.
Previous Discussion: An upper ridge over the Pacific NW will continue drifting east over the next several days.
305 AM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022 Other than a band of mid clouds near the approaching weak cold front in central Iowa through southeast Wisconsin, clear skies are widespread this morning. Tonight, lows in the lower to mid 50s are on track, as the dry air allows for a good diurnal drop.
1041 PM MDT Thu Jun 2 2022 H5 ridge continues to sweep east across the Rockies during the next 24 to 36 hours. The ridge itself is not particularly strong, so embedded impulses will be able to build up convection, given enough sfc lift and moisture.
A cold front is located from eastern KY through Middle TN, with a line of convection located just ahead of it. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 62 86 64 85 / 10 0 0 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 58 84 61 85 / 10 0 0 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 82 58 84 61 85 / 10 0 0 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 53 82 57 82 / 10 0 0 0 30.
Models show storms developing in the High Plains again later this afternoon/evening as another mid level disturbance begins moving into the southern Plains.
While this low is also keeping northern portions of the CWA cooler, it will also advect some low level moisture back into the area, which should help keep clouds around overnight, preventing much widespread frost. Saturday afternoon will see the highest chance for rain over NW WI, with low rain chances bleeding over the MN/WI border and up the North Shore. Winds will be the highest right along shore.
The surface front associated with this low becomes stationary over northern Iowa on Saturday, meaning precipitation may be limited to southern Minnesota and southwest Wisconsin for most of the day.
330 AM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 A cold front will move through the area today, leading to an increase in shower and storm chances. Mid-level ridge is all but gone at this point with flat flow aloft taking over. Cold front moves into the area today, accompanied by an increase in deep moisture. Initially convection will be powered by diurnal heating with focus on the sea breeze and to a lesser degree the cold front and the remains of the Piedmont trough. Shear is weak and wind through the lowest 10k ft are not particularly strong, generally 15 kt or less. Cold front in the area today pushes off the coast this evening, stalling southeast of the area early Sat. Maximums will reach the low to mid 80s Saturday with lows Saturday night in the low to mid 60s.
1110 PM MDT Thu Jun 2 2022 Upper air analysis shows upper low near Hudson Bay and a second low just offshore the Pacific NW coast. Ridging is persisting across the central to northern Rockies, with northwest flow aloft over the northern Great Plains. Cooler, drier air is filtering into ND, but more moisture over western SD is allowing plenty of altocu to develop. The first wave is expected tonight, which will bring elevated showers and thunderstorms to NE WY through SW SD, along a theta E ridge.
300 AM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 Dry weather is expected through the weekend under building high pressure.
Development of isolated rain showers or possibly a few thunderstorms may continue later this morning in the northern Sandhills along a warm front that is tracking north towards the South Dakota state line. A cold front will move south into the forecast area, becoming the focal point for storm initiation in the late afternoon and evening. The cold front should reach Kansas around Midnight. The warm front will cause temperatures to rise into the 80s in southwest Nebraska by Saturday, while temperatures to the north remain in the upper 60s to 70s. Once the cold front moves through on Saturday, temperatures in southwest Nebraska cool once again.
Potential Tropical Cyclone #1 (TPC1) continues to slowly move away from the Yucatan Peninsula this morning. The broad low pressure system has pushed squally weather over the Keys and local waters last night and this morning. As the day progresses conditions will deteriorate over our local marine zones and islands as convection well removed from the elongated low pressure will periodically propagate into the region.
Some clearing, especially of the low stratus deck, is expected by the middle of the afternoon near the NM/TX state line. Operational synoptic models have had a consistent signal for a cluster of thunderstorms/MCS to shift off the higher terrain of eastern NM into the southern Texas Panhandle/South Plains this evening as the ridge axis begins to breakdown. Sharper lee troughing during the day across NM thanks to breezy W-SW flow will likely mix the dryline off the Caprock by peak heating.
343 AM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 Discussion/Marine - Quiet Today with Some Fire Weather Concerns - Conditions will stay quiet through today as high pressure moves in and fully takes hold. Temperatures will touch into the low to mid 70s with lower dewpoints in the 30s to 40s.
A weak cold front was located near the I-20 corridor this morning. An area of showers over Mississippi was associated with an upper level short wave trof. The trof will shift eastward today and showers will increase in areal coverage across west Alabama this morning, and east Alabama by this afternoon. Cooler temperatures this afternoon across north Alabama due to clouds and rain will limit instability, and any thunderstorms will be confined to areas south of I-20. By mid afternoon the upper trof axis will be across east Alabama, so shower and thunderstorm activity will decrease considerably by late afternoon. Much warmer temperatures Saturday afternoon due to abundant sunshine and drier low level air.
237 AM MDT Fri Jun 3 2022 Current surface map shows high pressure across the Dakota. Water vapor imagery shows flat ridge over the Rockies with stalled upper low between Lake Winnipeg and Hudson Bay.
308 AM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022 Temperatures will be a touch warmer today as a deamplifying ridge axis to our west nudges into eastern Montana. An upper low that has been parked near the northern Manitoba/Ontario border for a couple days will continue to spin and wobble around as it weakens. By Saturday night, the upper low will slowly start to swing down from the Manitoba/Ontario border to northern Minnesota, dragging with it a cold front that will cross the state from north to south.
Overall this will be a fairly active weather pattern with numerous chances for showers and thunderstorms as weak short wave troughs slide across the area within a generally zonal fast moving pattern. We don't expect any kind of big upper trough or overly strong system, but more or less weak subtle waves that bring isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances to the area from time to time.
1151 PM MDT Thu Jun 2 2022 The main forecast concerns in the short term are the chances of thunderstorms moving off the higher terrain to the west during Friday and Saturday afternoons and making their way across the plains during the evening and overnight hours. Zonal westerly flow remains in place across the Rockies that brings a series of short wave troughs across the central High Plains region. Those waves appear to be enhanced by convection forming over the higher terrain of the Rockies that then propagate downstream across the forecast area Friday and Saturday evenings.
High pressure will move from south central Saskatchewan thru western, south central into central SD overnight. A bit warmer far south and east where clouds hang on. As the low pressure continues to move off to the east, the pressure gradient will begin to diminish over the evening hours. In addition, as high pressure settles in over the area, clearing skies and weakening winds will allow for cooling temps and potential fog and frost overnight tonight. Quiet weather will persist tomorrow with warmer highs in the upper 60s. Large scale pattern dominated by an upper low near Hudson Bay slowly transitions to more of a westerly zonal pattern in the Northern Plains, though broader troughing keeps lower heights in place aloft.
1146 PM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022 A ridge of high pressure will provide mainly clear skies overnight with a cold front leading to some degree of a mid deck (7-10 kft) of clouds through much of the day Friday. Temperatures peaking in the lower 70s with much lower dewpoints compared to yesterday (40s to low/mid 50s) will allow for a much more comfortable feel to the air as cloud cover eventually rapidly diminishes as subsidence fully takes hold with the arrival of sunset.
Bounded by a closed low rounding the Hudson Bay way to the north and a series of short wave troughs across the southern Plains, the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley region remains nestled within a rather quiet stretch of zonal flow. Broad surface ridging will continue to spread across the region, with quiet weather today and through Friday. Friday afternoon, a weak short wave trough traversing the Rockies will provide support for convective development along the western high plains into the evening.
133 AM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 A cold front will move through the area today, leading to an increase in shower and storm chances. Ridge weakens overnight ahead of an advancing cold front. Winds around 5-10 mph overnight as the cold front approaches the area and high-level clouds move-in ahead of the convection well to our west. Cold front approaches the area tonight and into early Friday. Cold front will interact with the sea breeze and widespread convection should result with modest instability, increasing moisture advection ahead of the front, and additional shear with the cold front in the area. A cold front will be moving across the area at the beginning of the period and it may be quite active.
1101 PM CDT Thu Jun 2 2022 (Rest of tonight) A cold front has moved south of the forecast area, and northerly flow will advect cooler and drier air through the area overnight.
-- Quiet weather through early Saturday -- Except for some lingering cumulus cloud development this afternoon, skies have cleared out quickly behind the wave of low pressure that moved through this morning. Northwest flow and broad troughing aloft remains over the area, helping to keep temperatures down a little bit. At the surface though, high pressure is moving in with the subsidence building in ahead of the short wave ridge axis.
(Today through Saturday afternoon) A weak upper ridge is over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico with upper disturbances moving overhead with northwest to west upper level winds.
Northwest winds have finally taken hold enough to drive out some of the low level moisture. Given the high June sun angle and the dry air mass, will not fight the nbm temps too much. Saturday will be another dry day with somewhat warmer temps as winds become east to southeast. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s with continued very low humidity.
315 AM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 A cold front moves through this morning with seasonably cool and dry weather expected this weekend. 315 AM Update: A few showers are lingering around the region early this morning as a cold front makes its way through CNY and NEPA later this morning. With the high LCLs this afternoon with the dry air advecting in it will be tough to get anything to reach the ground so PoPs were removed for this afternoon. Cool, but dry high pressure system will move slowly east to be over the region Saturday night. With the high over the area Saturday night, most locations will drop into the 40s.
SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): A mid-level ridge is once again dominating our weather pattern for the next couple of days. However, this ridge is moving in from the southwest bringing drier air to the CWA. Temperatures are gradually increasing as the ridge begins to move east for the weekend.
A ridge has formed over the western portion of the United States between two upper-level low pressure areas. However, the low pressure to our northwest will slide eastward enough to increase pressure gradients and thus winds today and tomorrow. Seasonal temperatures will go along with the breezy conditions today with temperatures continually increasing as high pressure dominates the desert Southwest.
832 AM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 Dry weather is expected through the weekend under building high pressure.
The more predominate southwest flow will, however, result in warmer surface temperatures and deeper mixing this afternoon.
540 AM MDT Fri Jun 3 2022 Upper level ridge axis extended from western MT to the Four Corners. Attention turns to convective development over the Laramie Range around midday, and moving into the high plains through the afternoon and evening. The area of greatest interest highlighted by a Slight Risk by the SPC is the far southeast WY plains and much of the southern NE Panhandle, including Torrington, Scottsbluff, Pine Bluffs, Kimball, Sidney and Bridgeport. A weak front progresses southwest into the high plains Saturday morning and stalls near the WY/CO border late in the afternoon. Model soundings indicate thermodynamic parameters favorable for strong/severe convection focused further to the south and east, with the northwestward extent into the far southeast CWA, specifically east of a Bridgeport to Kimball line.
With a moist and convective spring weather pattern becoming established over the region, and with freezing levels rising more consistently to near or above the highest mountains in southwest Montana, expect snowmelt at the highest elevations of southwest Montana begin to increase.
/22/ Today and Tonight: Cooler than normal through the period. Early morning surface analysis had a weak cold front draped across our southeast zones with a >1016mb high centered over the central Plains. Cooler and drier air will filter into our CWA from the northwest through tonight. Clouds will be on the decrease tonight and as a cooler drier airmass settles into our CWA morning lows will be in the low to mid 60s.
Showers and thunderstorms moving off the higher terrain in eastern NM may move across KCDS and KPVW later this evening. Some clearing, especially of the low stratus deck, is expected by the middle of the afternoon near the NM/TX state line. Operational synoptic models have had a consistent signal for a cluster of thunderstorms/MCS to shift off the higher terrain of eastern NM into the southern Texas Panhandle/South Plains this evening as the ridge axis begins to breakdown. Sharper lee troughing during the day across NM thanks to breezy W-SW flow will likely mix the dryline off the Caprock by peak heating.
628 AM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022 Upper air pattern features a ridge over western North America and a trough over Hudson Bay/Canada. This will bring pleasant weather with plenty of sunshine, low humidity, light winds, and temperatures warming into the low 80s in the afternoons and dropping into the 50s overnight.
703 AM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 Clear sky and light SW wind start the day while a weak cold front approaches from the west. Light north to light and variable wind then continues as high pressure builds into the region overnight into Saturday morning. Negative H5 geopotential height anomaly emanating from Canada persists Saturday supporting cooler than normal conditions through the weekend. Low-level anticyclone moves east into the Tri-State region and builds downstream of slowing upper ridge axis while the upper pattern remains governed by low amplitude longwave troughing over the eastern half of CONUS. H8 thermal troughing mutes highs near 70F while cloud cover increases during the afternoon.
530 AM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022 Mostly sunny skies with seasonable temperatures in the lower 80s can be expected across central Illinois both today and Saturday.