Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
346 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2020 This afternoon, some locations were seeing sprinkles/flurries as an upper trough axis and associated weak PVA moved over the area. Flurries will continue to be possible into this evening, especially over eastern Kansas as the trough axis advances eastward. As this first trough axis moves out tonight, another axis, which could develop into a small closed low, will rotate around a parent wave located to our northeast and work over the area early tomorrow. Precip could be in the form of light snow and freezing drizzle at times, but impacts should be minimal given the limited QPF and resultant light nature to the precip.
/EC/ Tonight and Friday: While water vapor imagery shows dry mid and upper levels, moisture remains in the lower levels as visible imagery still indicating the pesky low cloud deck over western sections.
Eastern Pacific ridging pattern continues for the next few days keeping the forecast dry and warmer than average.
309 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2020 Tonight and Friday: While water vapor imagery shows dry mid and upper levels, moisture remains in the lower levels as visible imagery still indicating the pesky low cloud deck over western sections.
538 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2020 A cold front will push south across the TAF sites overnight switching winds around to the north and northwest. There may be an outside chance of a flurry tonight behind the cold front at any TAF site, but no cig or visibility issues are expected. Clouds are expected to fill back into the area overnight as a cold front pushes through. Not expecting any precip with the frontal passage as soundings show not much moisture in the lower to mid layers. With the north winds in place, temps will be very similar to today if not a touch cooler.
305 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2020 The upper ridge that has been over the east coast the past few days slips eastward into the western Atlantic as deep troughing extends southwest through the central U. A closed upper low develops in the base of this trough over Kansas by Saturday afternoon and digs southeast and will be located over the northern gulf coast by Saturday afternoon.
Models show upper level ridging developing over the central plains for this weekend with high confidence of much warmer temperatures spreading over the region.
Progressive positive tilt upper trough in the northern stream is expected to pass over the local area around Saturday morning. Warmer Weather and dry conditions are expected to start this period off as strong ridging aloft is expected to building across Indiana and the Ohio Valley.
/EC/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Friday: While water vapor imagery shows dry mid and upper levels, moisture remains in the lower levels as visible imagery still indicating the pesky low cloud deck over western sections.
The chance for showers will return for the second half of the night, with the higher chances across the Florida Panhandle. Low temperatures tonight will be warmer than last night, particularly inland across southeast AL and southwest GA, with lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Rain will linger into Friday night and as an upper level trough passes through Saturday, there's enough moisture that a few light rain showers will be possible on Saturday as well. The high temperature gradient will be more defined on Friday with highs ranging from the lower 50s across the north to the upper 60s across portions of the Big Bend with the gradient a few degrees less on Saturday with highs ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s.
JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 39 52 35 60 / 40 30 30 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 41 49 36 57 / 40 40 30 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 52 40 50 35 57 / 30 40 30 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 38 47 35 54 / 40 50 40 20 0.
A mid level trof axis continued to make its way eastward through the region this evening. the patchy drizzle should shift eastward during the night with the trof axis.
Light winds and warmer temperatures can be expected through Saturday over most of the region though north breezes will linger along the Colorado River Valley from Lake Mohave to Lake Havasu.
Dry northerly flow aloft will prevail across the Panhandles later this morning through tonight behind the departing upper trough.
A larger trough axis, still located to our west tomorrow evening, will move across Central Alabama Saturday. Although overall moisture is limited, forcing with the trough will be strong for a few light rain showers/drizzle across the area.
There is a low chance for freezing drizzle early Saturday morning but temperatures will climb above freezing shortly after sunrise.
Otherwise, even with the persistent clouds, weak WAA will help temps climb into the lower 30s. As ridging sets up over the Plains later in the day on Saturday, expect any precip chances to exit off toward the east.
The Little Rocky Mountains will experience the highest winds prior to a cold frontal passage Saturday Night, but winds did not look strong enough for a High wind Watch.
Satellite imagery shows the mid level short wave trough moving through Coahuila this evening.
Much drier air in the lower/mid levels spreading into western Kansas within a west-northwesterly flow will help keep precip chances at bay throughout the period. Meanwhile, fairly seasonal temperatures can be expected this afternoon as a downslope flow prevails throughout the high plains of western Kansas.
21z surface analysis had low just east of KD07 with cold front into northeast WY. Froude numbers favorable for upslope for a couple more hours of the higher Black Hills, also perceived on the KUDX radar loop. Looking at wind potential, latest RAP/HRRR shows 50kt 850mb wind core pushing into CWA behind cold front. Friday/Saturday, flat western CONUS ridge builds into the northern plains as a warm front moves through the CWA.
1132 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2020 Water vapor imagery shows an elongated, positively tilted trough moving through the middle of the country. Once this system moves out, we'll move into a warming trend with broad upper ridging spreading over much of the CONUS.
1104 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2020 North winds will be common behind a cold front through the morning hours. /Issued 538 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2020/ A cold front will push south across the TAF sites overnight switching winds around to the north and northwest. There may be an outside chance of a flurry tonight behind the cold front at any TAF site, but no cig or visibility issues are expected. Clouds are expected to fill back into the area overnight as a cold front pushes through. Not expecting any precip with the frontal passage as soundings show not much moisture in the lower to mid layers. With the north winds in place, temps will be very similar to today if not a touch cooler.
234 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2020 An upper level trough will bring occasional snow and rain tonight and early Sat. The influence of an upper level trough and the right entrance region of a relatively weak jet streak will bring occasional light precipitation (rain/snow) Alleghenies late this afternoon/early evening into the night. Due to the light QPF and initially mild(er than freezing), no accums are expected before sunset. Overall, precipitation will be on the light side with minor accumulations near an inch possible in the higher elevations, while downsloping subsidence results in progressively lower POPs east of the mountains.
WV imagery indicates a northerly flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains as upper level ridging moves ashore of the Pacific. a weak cold front is pushing southeast across west central Kansas.
Strong Pacific jet anchored along the southern periphery of the cyclone lifting into southern Alaska will race across the northern Rockies and reach the Great Lakes during the next 54 hours, or Saturday afternoon.
Mostly cloudy skies for much of the day and northerly winds will keep rather cool conditions today with highs expected to range in the lower 60s. As drier air continues to filter in tonight, clearing skies and light winds will lead to lows in the lower 40s, to even upper 30s for northern inland locations. Saturday will be rather pleasant as high pressure settles over the region, with mostly clear skies and light northwesterly winds. Temperatures for Saturday should warm up into the low to mid 70s.
209 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2020 An upper trough was progressing east through the lower MO valley into the southern Plains. As this warmer/moist air overruns the CAD across GA, an expansion of this rain will occur over much of southeast AL and GA this morning. But kept a slight chance of -SHRA as the next trough axis approaches late tonight into Saturday morning. the associated cold front will pass through from west to east Saturday morning ending the chance of rainfall.
Building high pressure aloft will combine with the offshore flow to push daytime temperatures well above average both Friday and Saturday.
Some decent amounts of rain can be expected over the mountains tonight but much of the lower elevations will see very little precipitation. Have cut back on POPs in the lowlands with this forecast update for tonight. The other issue is the low elevation fog which has been quite stubborn this evening and dense in areas.
Upper trough axis across the Mississippi Valley is resulting in SW flow aloft across the region today and tonight with widespread cloud cover and temperatures near normal. Still, WNW flow will enhance lift across the mountains and enhance some further cooling and saturation within the lower range of the DGZ for the upslope regions.
1030 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2020 Water vapor imagery highlights a potent short wave trough sliding east through Central Mexico. Mean layer ridging persists across the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. A warm front will begin to lift northward from Cuba through the Straits of Florida Friday afternoon. A cold front is expected to move swiftly eastward across the Gulf of Mexico, and then cross our entire region by late Saturday or Saturday evening. In wake of the cold front, high pressure will build in from the west. A warm front will develop over the Straits of Florida Friday afternoon, although warm and stable layers descending from the mountains of Cuba will complicate the convective development along the warm front.
320 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2020 A weak low pressure system will bring some snow showers tonight.
332 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2020 A weak low pressure system will bring some snow showers tonight.
Much drier air in the lower/mid levels spreading into western Kansas within a west-northwesterly flow will help keep precip chances at bay throughout the period. Meanwhile, fairly seasonal temperatures can be expected this afternoon as a downslope flow prevails throughout the high plains of western Kansas. A dry pattern will persist through remainder of the weekend as ridging aloft breaks down while transitioning east across the Intermountain West into the Western High Plains, all while a westerly downslope flow reinforces a drier air mass settled throughout western Kansas.
1043 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2020 High pressure will provide tranquil weather through late week. An upper level trough will bring occasional rain and snow showers this weekend, but the associated coastal low is forecast to remain too far off the Mid Atlantic coast to affect central Pennsylvania.
102 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2020 Rain will return for Friday and Friday night associated with a trough along the Southeast Coast. The trough will be farther off the coast Saturday and moisture will diminish, but some lingering moisture combined with an upper- level disturbance could help support a few showers Saturday into Saturday night.
/Tonight/ The evening water vapor imagery indicates an upper trough extending south across the Cntrl and Srn Plains of SW TX from a closed low center over WCntrl MN, with enough mid and upper level forcing ahead of the trough resulting in areas of -RA and embedded -SHRA over portions of E TX/SW AR/N LA. Did increase pops to high and mid chance over areas E of the trough, while lowering/dropping pops farther to the W over SE OK/adjacent SW AR and extreme NE TX. The GFS and HRRR also depict cigs lowering overnight as well, possibly as a result of patchy FG/-DZ development late in wake of the departing trough, mainly over portions of extreme NE TX/SE OK/SW AR, and thus have maintained mention in the forecast.
Otherwise a cold front is moving from the Oklahoma panhandle into northwestern Oklahoma early this morning. Despite the cold front, we will see more sunshine today and so temperatures will be warmer today than under yesterday's cloudy skies.
127 AM MST Fri Jan 31 2020 Western CONUS ridge will shift east the next two days, with much warmer and dry conds expected. Upper level ridging ongoing, with height rise spill over cirrus increasing over the region. Sat will see even warmer temps as the thermal ridge will time over the area.
1028 PM MST Thu Jan 30 2020 Afternoon WV/IR imagery showed a upper trough over the Great Plains and upper ridge from the eastern Pacific into WA/OR.
318 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2020 Early morning water vapor imagery depicts an upper trough over the central portions of the CONUS with one wave exiting eastern Kansas with another wave deepening over the central Dakotas. A modified cold front was moving east across western portions of Kansas with modest low-level winds and modest dewpoint depressions ahead of it. Isolated high-based precipitation ahead of the mean trough was generally weakening in recent hours with otherwise mainly clear skies over much of the state. Low-level warm air advection pattern takes hold for much of the weekend as a broad upper ridge builds into the Plains with highs rising 10 to 15 degrees each day.
This comes as broad troughing occurs across the region and an area of low pressure develops along the northern Gulf Coast. Highs today will be about normal with readings in the lower 50s across the Delta to the lower 60s in the Pine Belt. /28/ This Weekend: As we kick off February, Saturday will begin with considerable cloudiness as a mid/upper trough pushes across the area.
As a result, the potential exists for light freezing drizzle or a mix of freezing drizzle/snow. Overnight lows will be in the lower to middle 30s.
GOES-16 Water Vapor Satellite trends indicate a longwave upper level trough extending from Manitoba south through portions of the Central and Southern Plains. As of 3 AM CST, temperatures across the Mid-South range from the upper 30s north to the lower/middle 40s south. Short term models indicate the aforementioned longwave trough will gradually shift east across the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys by Saturday.
Clouds will dissipate on Saturday as high pressure builds to the south of the region. Clockwise flow around the high will bring a west wind and warmer conditions.
259 AM MST Fri Jan 31 2020 Initially had upgraded previous High Wind Watches to Warnings with an updated time of 4 AM but given the recent observation by the WYDOT sensor along I-80 at Halleck Ridge measuring a 58 mph gusts, elected to just move the start time up to accommodate observation. Models remain fairly consistent in the 00z run as a deep mid layer trough moves across the Great Plains with a stacked pressure gradient and swath of positive vorticity moving across the region this morning.
Activity associated with a surface trof and upper disturbances within a strong southwest flow aloft. Main mid and upper trof now over the plains will advance across the region late tonight into Saturday morning which will bring a welcome clearing of the persistent clouds. Weekend will then come under a very dry airmass as flow through the column becomes northerly between the exiting trof and high pressure over the western CONUS. Chilly temperatures expected tonight and Saturday night ranging from the upper 30s north to the lower 40s south. Saturday's high temperatures will range from the upper 50s north to the lower 60s south.
Accordingly, will maintain some slgt rain chcs mainly near the lower TX coastline and the offshore waters this morning with single digits pops expected by this afternoon. Broad and dry 500 mb ridging will then build in over the region into Sat clearing out more of the cld cover allowing for more sunshine. The latest NAM guidance is a bit cooler in comparison to the GFS and ECMWF. Will lean closer to a slightly warmer blend of the two warmer model sets.
An upper trough was progressing east through the lower MO valley into the southern Plains. As this warmer/moist air overruns the CAD across GA, an expansion of this rain will occur over much of southeast AL and GA this morning. But kept a slight chance of -SHRA as the next trough axis approaches late tonight into Saturday morning. the associated cold front will pass through from west to east Saturday morning ending the chance of rainfall.
428 AM MST Fri Jan 31 2020 Initially had upgraded previous High Wind Watches to Warnings with an updated time of 4 AM but given the recent observation by the WYDOT sensor along I-80 at Halleck Ridge measuring a 58 mph gusts, elected to just move the start time up to accommodate observation. Models remain fairly consistent in the 00z run as a deep mid layer trough moves across the Great Plains with a stacked pressure gradient and swath of positive vorticity moving across the region this morning.
Otherwise, in the dry slot if you will, across northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota, dense freezing fog and even freezing drizzle remain a concern. Forecast soundings indicate freezing drizzle/fog conditions will improve thereafter, perhaps lingering locally a bit longer across the area, particularly across portions of the Coteau. While relatively mild today with highs near 30 for most (35-40 along/west of the Missouri River), highs will be a good 10 degrees warmer across the board on Saturday with the help of southwesterly breezes and some sunshine coming through mixed cloudy/clear skies. When the period opens, a major warm up is in progress with a broad upper level longwave ridge over the region and very warm air (+5C to +10C or higher at 925hpa), for the beginning of February, over the CWA.
601 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2020 An upper level trough will bring occasional snow and rain tonight and early Sat. The influence of an upper level trough and the right entrance region of a relatively weak jet streak will bring occasional light precipitation (rain/snow) to the Alleghenies late this afternoon/early evening into the night. Due to the light QPF and initially mild(er than freezing), no accums are expected before sunset. Again, no real accumulations, just an inch or so on the higher terrain. Overall, precipitation will be on the light side with minor accumulations near an inch possible in the higher elevations, while downsloping subsidence results in progressively lower POPs east of the mountains.
540 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2020 Early morning water vapor imagery depicts an upper trough over the central portions of the CONUS with one wave exiting eastern Kansas with another wave deepening over the central Dakotas. A modified cold front was moving east across western portions of Kansas with modest low-level winds and modest dewpoint depressions ahead of it. Isolated high-based precipitation ahead of the mean trough was generally weakening in recent hours with otherwise mainly clear skies over much of the state. Low-level warm air advection pattern takes hold for much of the weekend as a broad upper ridge builds into the Plains with highs rising 10 to 15 degrees each day.
418 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2020 Post-cold front regime this morning with leftover stratus on the Nebraska side. I would have gone warmer with lows tonight if it were not for the fact that light winds and clearing skies will be around for the evening. Warming takes place over the weekend as broad ridging takes place.
An area of high pressure building aloft combined with weak offshore flow will push daytime temperatures well above average today and Saturday.
617 AM MST Fri Jan 31 2020 Western CONUS ridge will shift east the next two days, with much warmer and dry conds expected. Upper level ridging ongoing, with height rise spill over cirrus increasing over the region. Sat will see even warmer temps as the thermal ridge will time over the area.
Snow accumulations will be hampered by temperatures hovering near freezing, but where snow is heavier we could see a quick inch or two. The warming trend continues Sun as the next trough makes landfall on the west coast, transitioning NW flow aloft to SW over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico and further backing sfc flow to SW. The trough is then forecast to dig down to UT by 00Z Tue, increasing SW flow aloft over the region, and making for a windy afternoon. Unfortunately, a strong cold front is on tap to arrive Tue morning, bringing temps below normal by the afternoon. Models are deep w/the cold air, and forecast soundings drop below freezing all the way up Tue evening, suggesting a SN event. The upper trough will clear the area Wed night.
Sat-Sat night: Flow aloft will back to the NW-WNW as the ridge along the Pacific coast flattens and builds eastward across the Desert SW into the Southern Plains.
This has been in response to an upper level low bringing weak positive vorticity advection, with some small pockets of weak elevated instability leading to its showery nature. Most areas will stay under an inch of snow, but areas along the Buffalo Ridge in SW MN may see up to an inch or two. After this cloudy and dreary pattern, all eyes are on the weekend promising some sunshine and warmer temperatures. A strong upper level ridge builds overhead as the aforementioned upper wave moves out of our area, allowing for some warmer air to be brought in and partly cloudy skies.
Dry and warmer conditions still look on track for the weekend with many areas expected to see lower 70s.
555 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2020 Post-cold front regime this morning with leftover stratus on the Nebraska side. I would have gone warmer with lows tonight if it were not for the fact that light winds and clearing skies will be around for the evening. Warming takes place over the weekend as broad ridging takes place.
258 AM PST Fri Jan 31 2020 Eastern Pacific ridging pattern continues for the next few days keeping the forecast dry and warmer than average.
649 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2020 An upper level trough passing overhead will bring spotty light snow and rain tonight and early Saturday. Temperatures will remain above average and trend even warmer into the first week of February. The influence of an upper level trough and the right entrance region of a relatively weak jet streak will bring occasional light precipitation (rain/snow) to the Alleghenies late this afternoon/early evening into the night. Due to the light QPF and initially mild(er than freezing), no accums are expected before sunset. Again, no real accumulations, just an inch or so on the higher terrain. Overall, precipitation will be on the light side with minor accumulations near an inch possible in the higher elevations, while downsloping subsidence results in progressively lower POPs east of the mountains.
Thus, winds will breezy at times, over the higher terrain with some gusts up to 50 mph. Highs across nern CO, will be warmer than yesterday, as 850-700 mb temps rise near 10 degrees c. Models have northerly flow aloft for the CWA on Saturday with upper ridging pushing eastward into Colorado.
A warm front will lift through the area tonight with very mild temperatures expected on Saturday. As temperatures soar ahead of an approaching cold front, relative humidity values will drop to between 15 and 25 percent for southwest portions of the CWA. Therefore, the High Wind Watch has been replaced with a High Wind Warning on Saturday.
407 AM MST Fri Jan 31 2020 Deep northerly flow is in place behind a trough moving into the central CONUS and ridging strengthens upstream over the Pacific Coast. Meanwhile there is a deep low pressure system over Alaska. The flow between this system and the ridge to the south will direct strong atmospheric river conditions to the PacNW. Snow cover also continues to plague the lower Green and Colorado River Valleys. Dry and warmer conditions continue through the weekend as a strong jet breaks the system away from the high latitudes and pushes the mid latitude ridge inland.