Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
527 AM MDT Sun May 21 2017 Low pressure system currently over southwestern Minnesota early this morning will move into northeastern Minnesota this afternoon. Disturbances rotating southward on the west side of the upper low will be accompanied by weak CAA aloft. Monday will be windy an cooler with highs mainly in the lower 50s to lower 60s.
The Plains upper low continues to eject northeastward, now lifting across the upper Mississippi Valley. The best window for precipitation still appears to be Monday and Monday night as another round of highlands convection will have better support with an upper level trough rotating southeastward through the Rockies toward the Panhandle. Some concern that available instability will be a bit marginal, but with the shear expected ahead of the trough it is likely that some organization, possibly supercellular, will lead to a severe threat.
Rain chances increase today ahead of a cold front arriving late tonight. Upper- level flow pattern will favor showers and thunderstorms moving southwest to northeast, quasi- parallel to a lagging cold front. Lows tonight will remain above average, ahead of the approaching cold front. The large parent low pressure system will move through the western Great Lakes tonight, sweeping a cold front through our area Monday morning. The bulk of the remaining rain chances will be in the pre-dawn hours Monday, but a few showers could linger in the Ridges through midday. High pressure will begin to establish drier weather through Monday afternoon, despite a broad upper-level trough holding in the Great Lakes.
Will stick with the current forecast, having a steady increase in coverage through the rest of the morning out ahead of the approaching cold front. The latest surface map features low pressure centered across southern Minnesota, with a cold front aligned south, nearly along the Mississippi River. An upper level ridge is retreating towards the Eastern Seaboard. The cold front will gradually push east today, with plenty of moisture advecting northward out ahead it. Cooler air will move in behind the front, with lows in the mid to upper 50s. An area of high pressure will be moving across the Ohio Valley and exiting east to begin the period Monday night. Given the lower confidence of cloud cover will lean away from the ridge/valley splits.
Currently, air temperatures in most Keys island communities are in the mid 80s, with dewpoint temperatures in the lower to mid 70s, yielding heat indices of 90-95F. The highest and steepest waves will occur in the Florida Current/Gulf Stream.
1218 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017 A warm front will lift north across Lake Erie this morning as low pressure moves across the northern Great Lakes. The low will continue to move northeast across Ontario and the associated cold front will slide across the region from late this afternoon into tonight.
CAMS suggest as the low continues to migrate away from the CWA, precipitation will wane, however clouds will be slow to erode with GFS off and on saturated at the 500/700mb levels. Tonight: The pressure gradient will continue to relax with a weak inverted ridge over the eastern CWA. Farther west, mid level moisture associated with the secondary wave pinwheeling around the upper low to the east should limit the temperature drop.
A cold front will move through the area today and clear chances for rain and thunderstorms out of the area from west to east during the morning. High pressure will build over the area and bring dry conditions tonight through Monday.
Tomorrow a ridge builds over the west coast and northwesterly flow over the Rockies will send another disturbance into the area.
do expect increased activity along and ahead of trough. A weak short wave trough embedded in the westerly flow aloft will move east across the region this evening, which will aid in the development of thunderstorms across the forecast area following the destabilization of the airmass this afternoon as highs reach into the lower 70s. Scattered thunderstorms are possible again Monday afternoon and evening as a weak low center caught up in the flow around the low over the Great Lakes region begins to orbit the main low as a short wave trough that sweeps through the central high plains region during the evening and overnight hours.
551 AM MDT Sun May 21 2017 A broad area of cyclonic flow aloft associated with a robust upper low centered over northern MN will likely give way to a fairly un- settled period of weather over the next several days with numerous mid-level disturbances embedded within the flow. Breezy conditions are likely for Monday across much of southeast WY and the western NE Panhandle w/ the passage of the cold front. Believe temperatures will finally rebound some on Tue as ridging begins to build eastward, but fast northerly flow will more than likely keep it cooler (upper 50s/near 60) w/ lingering chances for showers and storms.
732 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017 Update/Aviation A cold front will push eastward through the region through early afternoon. A weak area of high pressure tracks up the Ohio Valley for tonight and Monday diminishing the risk for precipitation. Later Monday another low pressure system moves in our direction.
As of 08z, an upper low was centered over central Minnesota. At the surface, a center of high pressure was over western Kansas, while a low pressure center was over southern Minnesota. An upper trough will be digging southeast across the central high plains into the central southern plains by Monday evening. A surface cold front will move into the northwest counties late Monday afternoon.
/EC/ Today through tonight: An anomalous upper low will become anchored over the Great Lakes region in the near term, and this will maintain active westerly flow aloft over the ArkLaMiss region. /EC/ Monday through Sunday: The upper-level low pressure system will continue to spin over the Great Lakes on Monday, and at least some portion of it will remain over that region through most of the upcoming week.
1018 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017 Warmer today with highs in the 70s to around 80. /issued 359 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017/ Scattered showers and storms expected to stay just south of our CWA this morning as mid-level/H7 trough continues to progress eastward over region. Rain chances will increase across mainly northwest Oklahoma tonight as next s/wv trough progresses through base of northern/central U. l/wv trough.
The big upper low continues to push further northeast away from our forecast area and will be over northern Minnesota by this afternoon.
and Monday Closed upper low will lift northeast across northwest Wisconsin today. An upper trough will approach the area from the north Monday, while jet energy also approaches from the central Plains.
At the surface, the cold front is still back to the west of Nashville and could still see some storms fire along this boundary later this afternoon. Due to this, also reduced the high temperatures in these locations where rein is expected to persist. Chattanooga Airport, TN 78 64 79 60 / 50 40 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 75 63 77 57 / 80 70 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 75 63 79 58 / 80 60 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 72 61 76 55 / 100 70 30 20.
/Issued 310 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017/ Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas will get a well deserved break from the rain Today as high pressure reigns supreme for the day.
Otherwise, a cold front will push to the south/east of the region today, with drier air resulting in VFR conditions through tonight. Precipitation will exit the area with a cold front today. A new cold front will also approach from the Plains.
Could see some of the southwest rise into the low/mid 60s as clouds clear and some sun expected by late afternoon/early evening.
1018 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017 An area of low pressure over eastern MN will continue producing cloudy skies and light drizzle in the eastern half of this CWA. With the cloudy skies, temperatures along and east of the I-29 corridor will only warm into the upper 40s to the lower 50s. CAMS suggest as the low continues to migrate away from the CWA, precipitation will wane, however clouds will be slow to erode with GFS off and on saturated at the 500/700mb levels. Tonight: The pressure gradient will continue to relax with a weak inverted ridge over the eastern CWA. Farther west, mid level moisture associated with the secondary wave pinwheeling around the upper low to the east should limit the temperature drop.
Cold front is finally making its way across Central Illinois with cooler air moving in. Winds will become more westerly throughout the day with the high pressure building into the Plains and the upper low slowly moving NE to the Great Lakes. Day will start clear until some clouds wrapping around the low move through the region this afternoon. Cooler air and afternoon clouds should keep high temperatures mainly in the 60s. Tonight, mild weather continues with the high center moves across the mid Miss River Valley with more southwesterly winds for Central IL. Dry forecast comes to an end later on Monday as the next wave dives into the broader trof aloft over srn Canada, resulting in a shift to a more amplified flow.
1210 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017 High pressure in Canada will slowly build into the area today and move east Monday.
Showers have ended in south-central Idaho as yesterday's short wave trough leaves that area to the east.
This clearing is associated with the dry slot of the low pressure system that is currently over the Twin Cities area. Look for low clouds to spread back into southern WI by early afternoon as moisture wraps around the south side of the low. Expect gusty westerly winds across southern WI this afternoon as low pressure tracks through northern WI and into the U.
So will see dry and cooler conditions for today with some wrap around strato cu possible for portions of northeast MO and west central Illinois this afternoon. Period will begin with a nearly stacked upper low just NW of Lake Superior. This low will keep the region under cyclonic flow thru Thurs before heights begin to rise again. A leading s/w is still progd to bring a chance of precip to nrn portions of the CWA late Mon morning, before another trof rotates around the low bringing a reinforcing cdfnt thru the region and more rain. Given the persistent cyclonic flow, have trended temp twd the cooler guidance thru mid week. The exception is Mon and have trended warmer with more insolation expected, except for nrn portions of the CWA where precip is possible sooner.
1024 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017 Showers and thunderstorms will affect the region one more day as a cold front moves east through the region today. High pressure will build in for the beginning of the week offering drier and cooler conditions. Surface analysis shows low pressure over MN with cold front extending s-se through IN. Slight adjustments a little cooler with temperature due to observed trends. Expect highs in the lower to mid 70s. Temperatures will cool to the lower 50s in the west to mid 50s in the extreme ern counties. High pressure will build across the fa Monday bringing dry weather and cooler temperatures. Highs will reach only the lower 70s, with a few spots staying in the upper 60s.
Water vapor loop indicated the upper level low was located over the SD/ND/MN border with the upper level jet on the east side of the trough. Vort lobe was located over western IA and will rotate around upper low on Mon. Upper low will open up and shift east of the area by Tue.
/Issued 254 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017/ The panhandles will be on the south and southwest side of a large upper level trough over the central U. The west to northwest flow across the panhandles will bring several short wave troughs across the region through Monday night. A short wave trough will help to bring the showers and storms across much of the panhandles tonight. Another short wave trough will move through the panhandles Monday and another will move through later Monday night. The models are not in agreement on the timing of these various short wave troughs that move through the region and their impact on our rain chances.
The second change was to bump high temps up a degree inland based on daily trends over the last week as daytime heating will lead to another warm day with temperatures in the low-mid 90s.
An area of deep convection over the eastern Gulf signals an upcoming easing of high pressure over the area.
An upper level low currently over the midwest will supply short waves that will ripple arcs the region.
627 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017 Showers will be slow to end across our northern zones this morning as low pressure lifts slowly to the northeast due to trowaling. However eventually drier air in the low levels finally moves into the area by midday and afternoon. Coupled with unstable dry adiabatic soundings for the lapse rates in the low layers and a vort filament, a few instability showers could linger in these zones through the afternoon. 25 to 30 knots exists in the mixed layer and as mentioned, it is unstable in the lowest kilometer.
In the mean time, a very pleasant finish to the weekend is on tap today with relatively light winds and warmer temperatures. A stronger upper trof rotating within the developing mean longwave and evolving upper low centered over Ontario province will drop south from the northern into the central Plains Monday afternoon into Monday night. Modest moisture return ahead of the associated surface cold front is expected to result in MLCAPE values around 1000 j/kg by Monday afternoon. This in combo with modest deep layer shear around 35 kts should support strong to marginally severe storms along the cold front as it moves south across the forecast area late Monday afternoon and evening.
635 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017 08Z water vapor loop shows a closed low along the SD/MN border with its surface reflection just slightly farther east across south-central MN. Unseasonably cool temperatures will persist, topping out in the lower to mid 50s this afternoon. This will result in afternoon highs from the lower 60s across the northwest to the lower 70s across the southeast. While Monday morning will be mostly dry with some sunshine, expect cloud cover and shower/thunderstorm chances to increase in the afternoon/evening ahead of southeastward advancing cold front.
mid morning surface analysis had the cold front just northwest of a Greenwood Mississippi to Winnsboro Louisiana line with a 1022mb high centered over Oklahoma. This high will edge east today and help push the weak cold front farther south across our CWA. Hi-res models suggest very little convection in our area until the afternoon and mainly along and ahead of the cold front. /22/ Prior discussion below: Today through tonight: An anomalous upper low will become anchored over the Great Lakes region in the near term, and this will maintain active westerly flow aloft over the ArkLaMiss region. /EC/ Monday through Sunday: The upper-level low pressure system will continue to spin over the Great Lakes on Monday, and at least some portion of it will remain over that region through most of the upcoming week.
Its this secondary feature that will ensure an absolutely fine spring Sunday with ample sunshine and warmer temperatures as highs climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s this afternoon. This feature will then settle south across the lower Mississippi Vly later tonight with southerly winds on its backside initiating modest return flow as we head into the start of the work week. Inspection of several BUFKIT soundings from across the region show weak instability generation by Monday afternoon, with MLCAPE values generally in the 500-1000 J/kg range, with the highest values expected across the far northwest zones where moisture content will be highest and midlevel lapse rates the steepest.
Drier air will continue to slowly ooze east into the region today as high pressure gradually builds into the Southern Plains. lowering sfc dew points and light northerly winds will bring a much cooler night tonight. Monday should be a pleasant day as high pressure continues to build east into the Ohio River Valley.
An upper level ridge will continue to build into the region today. Also will see a few cumulus clouds over the higher terrain.
926 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017 High pressure in Canada will slowly build into the area today and move east Monday.
1045 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017 A cold front will bring scattered showers and storms to the area this morning, with the activity ending from west to east this afternoon.
It was a cloudy, muggy morning with temps in the lower 70s and dew points in the 60s. A weak cold front was just west of our coverage area, and this boundary will slowly move across Mid Tn through the day.
708 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017 A closed upper low was positioned over Minnesota this morning with a surface reflection centered near the TWin Cities. Expect the showers with occasional thunderstorms to continue throughout the day as the upper low drifts toward western Lake Superior and northwest Ontario. Temperatures will remain cooler than normal with the clouds and precipitation during the short term.
651 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017 H5 closed low that has affected western Nebraska the last several days is moving to the north northeast into Minnesota early this morning. H5 ridge along both coasts with a surface cold front along the Gulf. Will continue frost headlines with temperatures hovering around the freezing mark. With the heating of the day and cooler air aloft lapse rates steepen and some marginal cape could see some TRW in the northwest and the southwest where the leading edge of the wave are evident in satellite early this morning. Warmer temperatures tonight with lows on Monday morning in the upper 30s northwest and the low 40s over the remainder of the forecast area.
/issued 359 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017/ Scattered showers and storms expected to stay just south of our CWA this morning as mid-level/H7 trough continues to progress eastward over region. Rain chances will increase across mainly northwest Oklahoma tonight as next s/wv trough progresses through base of northern/central U. l/wv trough.
High pressure aloft building across the western states will bring a warming and drying trend to the area through the middle of the week. The warming and drying will accelerate for the first half of the work week as a ridge builds over the region. A cooler and more.
A weak short wave trough embedded in the westerly flow aloft will move east across the region this evening, which will aid in the development of thunderstorms across the forecast area following the destabilization of the airmass this afternoon as highs reach into the lower 70s. Scattered thunderstorms are possible again Monday afternoon and evening as a weak low center caught up in the flow around the low over the Great Lakes region begins to orbit the main low as a short wave trough that sweeps through the central high plains region during the evening and overnight hours.
1039 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017 A cold front currently stretches from just east of Paris, Tennessee to Holly Springs, Mississippi to near Lambert Mississippi. Meanwhile, clearing will continue to take place behind the departing cold front. A cold front is approaching the Mississippi River and will probably make it into middle Tennessee and North Alabama by midday today. East Arkansas may drop another 2-4 degrees before sunrise resulting in lows in the low 60s. a broad trough is positioned over the Nation.
750 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017 High pressure centered over eastern Canada and ridging south to the southern New England coast will slide slowly to the east today, allowing a cold front to push east from the Ohio Valley and bring the entire region a moderate rainfall averaging several tenths of an inch late today through much of Monday morning.
A nearly stacked low pressure system will continue to lift northeast from southern Minnesota early this morning, into southern Ontario by late tonight. Another upper low over northern Saskatchewan/Alberta will drop south today and bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to western ND late this afternoon and this evening.
A cold front is approaching the Mississippi River and will probably make it into middle Tennessee and North Alabama by midday today. East Arkansas may drop another 2-4 degrees before sunrise resulting in lows in the low 60s. a broad trough is positioned over the Nation.
The cold front early this morning was located south of the CWA, across South Texas.
729 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017 Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase by this afternoon as moisture increases ahead of an approaching cold front.
1037 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017 Rain chances increase today ahead of a cold front arriving late tonight. Cold front, currently over Indiana, will slowly make it's way toward the region this evening/overnight. Front should be aoa the ridges by Monday morning. The large parent low pressure system will move through the western Great Lakes tonight, sweeping a cold front through our area Monday morning. The bulk of the remaining rain chances will be in the pre-dawn hours Monday, but a few showers could linger in the Ridges through midday. High pressure will begin to establish drier weather through Monday afternoon, despite a broad upper-level trough holding in the Great Lakes.
High pressure over the southeast United States will remain nearly stationary today into Friday keeping the breezy easterly wind flow in place. The high will weaken while moving southeast into the western Atlantic this weekend, as low pressure moves southeast from the northwest United States into the central United States.
221 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017 Cold front now dropping though south central Kansas which was the focus for surface based convection earlier.
321 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017 High pressure off the coast will move further east today. A cold front will drop into the Mid Atlantic Friday afternoon.
310 AM PDT Thu Apr 20 2017 Low pressure exits the region this morning, bringing an end to any showers.
649 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017 A warm front will lift north from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes region early this morning. Cloud cover never quite clears up behind the front as storms continue to fire over southern Kentucky during the day and upper level flow remains west-southwest with a trailing longwave trough still extending from the Great Lakes into the central Plains.
Temperatures will start warmer than normal, then cool back to cooler than normal behind a cold front.
332 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017 88D mosaic this morning showing thunderstorm activity still on going along a cold front in eastern KS. cool through the weekend with highs generally in the mid 60s and lows in the low 40s.
Friday maybe be quiet except for KELD/KTXK then convection overnight into Sat spreads across I-20 w/ a Westerlies upper low & SVR WX for the mid South.
1144 PM MDT Wed Apr 19 2017 Upper low currently over western South Dakota with some showers wrapping around the system and over parts of the CWA this afternoon. developing an upper low that will track across Colorado into Kansas Friday.
Low pressure will track across southern Wisconsin this morning, exiting to the east by noon. Cooler and drier air will filter into the area in the wake of the exiting low. The southeast won't see this cooler air as quickly and should still be able to achieve highs in the mid 60s. High pressure building in tonight brings us clearing skies and lows in the mid to upper 30s.
Dry and warmer weather for Friday and into the weekend.
207 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017 Unsettled conditions will last into early Friday before a cold front delivers drier air for the last part of the day. The high RH and light wind should lead to a bit of fog in spots, but probably too much cloud cover to result in significant reductions to visibility. Latest model data shows 500-1000 J/KG of MLCAPE developing by the afternoon as low pressure/trailing cold front track east across lower MI and the Upper OH Valley. Cold front crossing the region early Fri will start the day with showers, but downward POP trend from NW to SE during the day as drier air spreads east across the area.