Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Instability will remain elevated as warm front should remain south of the cwa. Cold front will finally move very slowly across the region Wednesday.
Low level isentropic ascent will saturate the low levels of the atmosphere overnight into the early morning hours with MVFR to IFR conditions forecast. The low level lift and moisture will be sufficient enough for -DZ at CHA overnight.
329 AM EST Tue Feb 6 2018 An area of showers is moving westward in the near and offshore Atlantic waters, south and southwest of the Lower Keys. Temperatures along the island chain are in the lower 70s at this hour.
321 AM EST Tue Feb 6 2018 High pressure will move off the coast today. A cold front will bring widespread showers late tonight into Wednesday night. Unsettled weather is expected again over the weekend as another cold front crosses the area. Dry high pressure will continue to dominate the area this morning resulting in mostly clear skies and light winds. High pressure ridging into the area from the Mid- Atlantic region will shift off the coast today.
A low pressure system will cross the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Precipitation type remains quite problematic for Tuesday afternoon and evening as surface temperatures likely to have near freezing across NE OK most of the day with at least some light icing potential. Farther southeast precipitation will be a bit heavier but these areas could hold just above freezing until evening. Reinforcing cold front has entered northeast OK while expansive low cloudiness has slowed its erosion across far E OK / NW AR. Temp trends were adjusted tonight through tomorrow to reflect a cooler scenario with the widespread cloud cover expected and continued N-NE boundary layer winds. The northern periphery of this heavier precip band will need to be closely monitored as any further lack of warming through the day will raise freezing rain potential.
323 AM EST Tue Feb 6 2018 Upper level wave/circulation tracking through northern Ohio Valley early this morning, just not far enough north to getter better moisture/rates into southeast Michigan, and accumulations appeared to have come up on the lower end. It is this northern Stream Wave, which looks to become the more dominant player, as 6 HR height falls merge over the Midwest Tonight, although not all the upper level energy/PV from the Four Corners region ejects northeast, and thus one of the reason why the low tracking through/near Pittsburgh PA on Wednesday is not expected to deepen fast enough to have a significant impact on our weather.
Warmer, but still subzero lows will prevail across the rest of the area, except near Lake Michigan.
300 AM CST Tue Feb 6 2018 Today will feel starkly different from yesterday courtesy of a cold front currently moving through the region. Given the cold incoming temperatures, freezing drizzle/rain will be possible at least during the morning hours. At the same time, surface ridging will be pushing into the area. However, much of the area will remain unseasonably cool behind this cold front coupled with the low stratus hanging on for most if not all of the day. Another reinforcing shot of surface ridging will make its way through the area tonight. Although skies will be mostly sunny on Wednesday, temperatures will still be cool under the influence of the persistent surface ridging.
High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley today will slide to the mid-Atlantic and into the Atlantic tonight. Lows will be in the low to mid 40s (slightly above normal) except for the upper 40s along the coast. A cold front ahead of this upper level trough will push through the CWA Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Cross sections show that there was a bit of slightly warmer air between 850-700mb that kept the snowflakes from being dendritic over central and southern Iowa and that was the observations at our office today. By 8pm tonight, the snow will have shifted east of much of the forecast area as large scale subsidence and drier air associated with high pressure moves into the state.
After some patchy morning fog, broadly centered high pressure across the Wrn Atlc basin will provide light onshore winds with temperatures reaching slightly above normal for the time of year.
237 AM MST Tue Feb 6 2018 A broad upper trough covers the CONUS, with a wave over the Rockies region, and a jet streak sliding across SD. An upper ridge will build over the western states Wednesday, and warmer air will push into the area ahead of the next system, with highs ranging from the lower 20s across northwestern SD to near 40 across parts of northeastern WY.
Model soundings indicate saturation in the low levels well below -10 C. With the cold air in place, there is a small chance for light freezing rain or drizzle. The low end threat should be limited to locations generally along and north of I-40 where temperatures are below freezing. The upper level trough associated with this system will lift quickly this morning and any threat for frozen precipitation will end shortly after sunrise. Southerly low level flow at 850 mb will develop this afternoon as a warm front surges northward across the Gulf States.
The main weather focus through the remainder of the week will continue to be heat and fires, as the southwest US high pressure ridge expands westward, leading to increasing heights and thicknesses into the weekend.
The increased humidity will lead to heat index values in the low 100s across much of the area this afternoon.
HIgh pressure southeast of Indiana will provide dry weather today. Tonight low pressure moving toward the Great Lakes from the northern plains will push an upper level weather disturbance toward Central Indiana. Low pressure moving through the Great Lakes will push a cold front south across Indiana.
639 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017 WTM sodar at Reese Center shows that the low-level jet is weakening and no longer supports a LLWS mention at KLBB or KPVW. Broad flat ridge aloft stretching from the southern high plains to southeast US coast will persist for a few more days slowly weakening and shifting west by the weekend.
No major changes needed to temperatures for today, still looking at a cooler day compared to recent conditions. Noticeably cooler weather can be attributed to an upper level trough and associated surface front. The amplification of high pressure aloft over the CONUS southwest will bring very warm air into the state.
Daytime temps will climb a bit warmer toward the end of the week, though generally remain within 5 degrees or so of normal for most locations.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 73 92 74 / 20 20 40 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 72 90 72 / 20 10 40 40 Oak Ridge, TN 90 72 91 73 / 20 10 40 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 67 88 69 / 20 10 30 40.
Highs are still expected to top out in the lower 90s with dewpoints mixing down into the lower 70's.
General storm motion is expected to be to the east/northeast (based on the flow aloft) with tendency to form over the mountains midday and move toward the lower elevations from the mid afternoon into the early evening.
1242 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017 A cold front will slowly push offshore today as high pressure builds down from the northwest. The front will stall off the coast on Thursday as a small wave of low pressure tracks to our south.
704 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017 Cold front remains well off to the northwest of the area at 07Z stretching from northwest Minnesota across eastern South Dakota and into northwest portions of Nebraska. Short range models bring the cold front into northeast Nebraska by 12Z with a continued chance of thunderstorms in advance of the front from south central Nebraska into southwest Iowa through the morning and early afternoon as front continues to work its way south to the Kansas border by late this afternoon. More significant convection with potential for heavy rain will be possible tonight as storms focus on the quasi-stationary boundary near the Kansas border and a mid level trough moves into the region helping to enhance vertical motion.
However, decreased POPs this AM as building high pressure aloft should prevent any morning convection. Jaszka A pronounced warming trend begins across the area today as high pressure ridging builds across the region, with high temperatures Thursday through the weekend reaching the 90s to possibly 100+ over parts of the plains. VFR conditions with generally light and variable winds can be expected through early Thursday as high pressure builds over the region. CC /ISSUED 500 AM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017/ A pronounced warming and drying trend will begin today as high pressure ridging aloft builds across the region. CC The unseasonably strong ridge over the western US early in the period will gradually be flattened with time over the weekend as an upper level low over the NE Pacific gradually works inland across WRN Canada.
848 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017 High pressure will be Northeast of the region Today with prevailing onshore flow.
A west-southwest flow in the lower and mid-levels will promote the further enhancement of warmth and humidity beneath the intruding waves.
/issued 223 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017/ Wx map shows climatological surface Bermuda high ridging westward across the Gulf, providing a light south to southeast flow across the region. High pressure aloft covers most of the Midwest into the Gulf states region. With ridging aloft, precip chances would normally be suppressed. So far, not happening this summer, as we continue into a fairly wet period with ample moisture in the ground, and most of the lower and mid layers of the atmosphere.
There is some patchy fog, with the lowest vsbys found where the winds are lightest.
950 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017 A very warm day is in store for the region as a warm frontal boundary lifts north today and precipitation chances diminish.
Upper ridging extends from the Bahamas westward across much of the southern tier of the United States. With temps reaching into the lower and mid 90s again, afternoon heat index values will be in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees.
913 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017 Current temp trends have rebounded into the upper 70s/lower 80s for many locations this Wed morning, from their earlier lows mainly in the lower 70s. Dew pts have also climbed into the lower 70s in response to Gulf moisture continuing to spread nwd into the region. Afternoon temps are still xpcted to climb into the lower 90s for most areas, with associated heat indices increasing well into the upper 90s/around 100F for a few hrs.
1007 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017 Have lowered high temps for today with clouds persisting all day and the cooler air coming in on north winds.
There is a low probability of a -SHRA at MAF/FST in assocn with upper low to s moving w.
Otherwise, typical summer-like day, with precip coverage becoming more likely during the afternoon peak heating hours, and high temperatures should reach up into the low to mid 90s across SE TX. /ISSUED 341 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017/ A weak upper trough continued over Southeast Texas this morning. The models show the 500 mb ridge building overhead but there are some differences from the past few model runs.
Otherwise, sunny and hotter today, and hotter again Thursday, to near heat advisory levels in part of the Snake Basin, as upper ridge rebuilds in the Great Basin. Warming temperatures expected today as models continue to indicate the area of high pressure will work to reamplify over the next couple days.
Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies over much of the interior portion of the forecast area and surface data show temperatures warming through the lower 80s.
621 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017 One more day of dangerous heat is expected today before we get a respite thanks to a weak cold front. Today, will be the warmest day of the week thanks to continued upper level ridging over much of the southern CONUS as well as modest southwest flow at the surface. Factoring in dewpoints in the low to mid 70s and, heat index values will rise into the 102 to 107 range. This will enhance thunderstorm development along the cold front as in pushes south through Iowa. The low level jet will weaken Thursday morning allowing thunderstorms to diminish with the cold front still near the Iowa/Missouri border.
However, decreased POPs this AM as building high pressure aloft should prevent any morning convection. Jaszka A pronounced warming trend begins across the area today as high pressure ridging builds across the region, with high temperatures Thursday through the weekend reaching the 90s to possibly 100+ over parts of the plains. VFR with generally light and variable winds can be expected through early Thursday afternoon as high pressure builds over the region. CC/Jaszka /ISSUED 500 AM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017/ A pronounced warming and drying trend will begin today as high pressure ridging aloft builds across the region. CC The unseasonably strong ridge over the western US early in the period will gradually be flattened with time over the weekend as an upper level low over the NE Pacific gradually works inland across WRN Canada.
The forecast area is currently under a dry westerly flow regime, with a large upper level low spinning along the north-central BC coast. There is a small disturbance rotating around the parent upper low, located near 45. Expect today's highs to be 3-6 degrees warmer than yesterday. An upper level ridge will begin to rebuild over the desert Southwest during the day tomorrow.
919 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017 A cold front will slowly push offshore today as high pressure builds down from the northwest. The front will stall off the coast on Thursday as a small wave of low pressure tracks to our south.
/Issued 246 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017/ Morning water vapor imagery depicts an upper ridge centered just to our north over OK with an upper low spiraling across southern TX.
The 500 mb chart this morning showed two upper high centers, one over SW AZ and the other over nrn NM.
/ISSUED 341 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017/ A weak upper trough continued over Southeast Texas this morning. The models show the 500 mb ridge building overhead but there are some differences from the past few model runs.
A surface boundary/weak cold front will move into southwest Kansas Thursday morning as an upper level trough crosses the Central Plains. South of this boundary it will be another hot summer day while slightly cooler temperatures are expected north of this front/boundary late day.
1030 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 Early Morning Cape sounding and 915 MHz wind profilers shows SW flow in the low levels up thru 10k ft which should delay onset of the sea breeze along the east coast. Low level ridge axis just south of the waters will produce a light offshore flow this morning turning onshore in a sea breeze this afternoon near the coast.
Will monitor areas along the intl border and across lake country in MN for convective development where cold air aloft with trough extending south across the eastern parts of the FA could lead to initiation. Upper low will continue to propagate east along the international border region today. Although low level forcing looks to be lacking, any lingering outflows from current convection could combine with respectable cold pool with upper low to produce afternoon convection mainly over the ne FA. With low freezing levels cannot rule out some marginally severe hailers with stronger storms. As upper low continues to propagate east any lingering showers/T should be confined to the far ne this evening. With quite a bit cooler airmass in place highs in the 70s expected.
There is a slight chance for showers and maybe even a thunderstorm to redevelop this afternoon, mainly south of the highway 24 corridor. Drier and cooler air will then prevail for the first part of the upcoming week. Short wave and associated secondary cold front to swing south Sunday into Sunday evening.
First, synoptically we have the large upper level ridge of high pressure just off to our northwest with everything rotating around the periphery of the ridge. Weak surface ridging was present to our south and east which will continue to produce a weak southerly flow at the surface. The exception was for the ridgetop locations where updrafts and cu were already developing as of 11am.
An upper level low off the coast of northern BC was drifting northeast this morning and is expected to continue to do so through tonight. What's left of the upper low is expected to move inland across Western Canada later tonight through Sunday night.
/issued 341 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017/ (Today and Tonight) Upper level ridge continues to be the dominant weather player across West Central Texas, with continued hot and dry conditions for today.
1011 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017 An upper level low across southern Louisiana and the adjacent northwest Gulf of Mexico will gradually move west today. Meanwhile, weak high pres continues to ridge over the southeastern US and northern Gulf of Mexico resulting in very light/near calm winds acrs the area. 24 The upper low will continue to retrograde over the northwest Gulf coast through Sunday. Increased instability and lift associated with the low will allow sctd showers and tstms to develop over the area this morning, especially along and south of I-10. Daytime temperatures today and Sunday will be a few degrees cooler than the past few days with aftn highs expected to range from the upper 80s to lower 90s, and will be dependent on shower/cloud coverage.
More storms are expected today now that subsidence is reduced and the high pressure aloft has shifted north. Since the central Gulf Coast is south of the ridge, easterly flow at 30 to 40 kts is evident above about 400 mb from the passing upper low. /issued 400 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017/ Upper low will keep the area under enough sh/ts and cloud cover to keep heat index values low enough to keep the oppressive heat down. A strong short wave, over southern Canada, embedded in the larger upper trough is moving southeast this morning.
/Issued 239 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017/ The upper ridge which has kept us fairly warm and dry over the past couple of days will be on the move today. Instability will also be on the low side (around 500 J/kg) during the day, but will be on the rise as we go into the overnight hours (around 1000 J/kg).
1030 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 High pressure ridging across south FL will keep a SW flow in place across the local area for the next several days. SW flow will continue over the coastal waters for the next several days as the high pressure ridge axis remains south of the area.
Meanwhile, the axis of Atlantic ridging (1023 millibars) extends across south Florida. ridging is centered over the Ozarks and the southwestern Atlantic, with upper level lows spinning along the Louisiana coast and just east of the Bahamas. Light southwesterly surface winds will slightly delay the development of the Atlantic sea breeze, allowing coastal highs to soar into the low to mid 90s. Highs will also climb into the low to mid 90s over much of southeast Georgia, with upper 80s to near 90 expected in the Suwannee Valley, where convection is already developing. Lows tonight will range from the low/mid 70s inland to the upper 70s at area beaches. The axis of Atlantic surface ridging will remain positioned over the Florida peninsula during the next several days, keeping an offshore wind regime in place through at least midweek.
These readings are about 2 to 4 degrees warmer compared to yesterday at this time.
A deep layer mean anticyclone is centered over the western North Atlantic, and the Keys remain along the far western flank of this system.
The temperatures also seem to be on track for the lower 90s across the area.
Split flow regime developing across the region with westerly flow aloft being pushed north into washington as an upper level ridge builds northward from the southwestern states.
1144 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 High pressure will dominate the weather for the weekend with below seasonal temperatures expected.
Patchy fog is possible at times this weekend while the higher dewpoints stick around Rain moved out of southern WI. The rain is gradually diminishing from north to south as the low level jet veers over northern IL. Drier air will be spreading into the area as the day goes on, although lingering moisture in the low levels will lead more broken cloud cover. The vorticity advection and associated trough sliding through central WI may trigger a few showers and storms tonight north of I-94. The warm and humid air will persist over the area, with highs in the lower to mid 80s today and lows tonight in the upper 60s.
852 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 High pressure will dominate the weather for the weekend with below seasonal temperatures expected.
/ISSUED 410 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017/ Increasing Louisiana area shower and thunderstorm coverage early this morning in association with the northern Gulf of Mexico upper level low will gradually work its way westward and into our area over the weekend as the low continues heading westward. Models continue to indicate lowering precipitable water values during much of the upcoming week as mid/upper level high pressure attempts to build into our area, but for now we'll need to keep some low mainly daytime rain chances in the forecast.
948 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 High pressure remains off the southeast coast. An upper level trough of low pressure will move over the northeastern US early in the week.
734 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 As a weak cold front moves southward from Quebec and through the North Country this afternoon, an isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible across central and southern areas, otherwise dry conditions are expected through the weekend as high pressure settles overhead.
Drier mid level air advecting in from the northern/eastern peripheries of this low has spread into southern UT overnight, though PWATs near an inch and dewpoints in the low to mid 50s across remain in place across the southern third.
Think best chance will actually be a bit east of where we showed previously along H85-H7 theta-e ridge axis which extends from the ern OK Panhandle SW through Canyon. /Issued 915 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017/ There is a small upper level disturbance directly over the Panhandle within a broader weakness in the ridge.
646 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017 Temperatures were running a little cooler than forecast, so adjustments were made to account for that. This is the result of an upper low/associated trough located over southeast Saskatchewan and southwest Manitoba, in combination with broad ridging over the Northern Rockies. The Northern Rockies ridge will amplify and progress east Sunday, shifting through central ND evening.
Templer Previous Discussion - Synoptic Setup: Short term begins with hot high pressure over the western half of the CONUS. A ridge has risen out of the this airmass over the western half of Montana and southern Alberta, while a previous cool airmass is exiting into the Dakotas. Farther West a closed low resides over the British Columbian coast. Today through Sunday: Northwest flow today will give way as the as the RIdge to the west builds in strength and moves over the central Montana overnight. COnditions should be dry through all these periods as the entrance of the ridge should stabilize out the atmospheric profile. The latest 00z models continue with a closed low tracking across southern Alberta and Saskatchewan with a southward extending dry cold front through western Montana Sunday evening.
The 12Z soundings at OHX and RNK show a pretty good cap that will have to be overcome for convection to develop this afternoon, and with the lack of forcing today, that seems unlikely to happen outside of the higher terrain.
646 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017 Outflow boundary/bore/gravity wave is currently approaching from western KS, stemming from earlier thunderstorm activity across the High Plains. Today will be the last HOT day across the region, with downslope/compressional warming ahead of the approaching cold front.
730 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 The main concern for today continues to be the persistent upper ridge and hot temperatures.