Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/US AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED FROST SOUTHWEST TONIGHT BUT OVERALL WARMER TEMPERATURES SO DO NOT THINK IT WARRANTS A FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT. ACROSS THE WEST H850 TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY BY ABOUT 3 TO 4 DEGREES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THIS AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. TOMORROW HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL BRING DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD SUCH THAT WE SHOULD SEE A CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. WITH AIR TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
1055 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER 40S ALREADY AS CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
856 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015 THE COLD FRONT IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF ARKANSAS. AND THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO WESTERN AR. AND A GRADUAL DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS INTO AR.
AIR TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S IN MOST KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S. A WEAK WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL LIE ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. BEFORE SLOWLY BEING REINFORCED BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK.
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS AROUND TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN TOMORROW ADVECTING MOISTURE BACK UPHILL TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE ANOTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP.
657 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015 2 PM SURFACE MAP SHOWED LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS EXTENDED NORTH AND EAST FROM THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE. BUT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA SHOULD BRING KEEP SKIES AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE CAROLINAS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS THE 850HPA LOW CROSSES OVERHEAD. FELT COMFORTABLE ENOUGH TO ADD LIKELY POPS TO AT LEAST THE RIDGE ZONES. THERE REMAINS THE CONCERN THAT DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL LEAD TO RAIN EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE SO POPS BEYOND THE HIGHER TERRAIN WERE KEPT IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. SYSTEM WILL BE EAST OF THE RIDGES BY MIDDAY BUT LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL ONCE AGAIN MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
MIN TEMPS TO BE THE MAIN FCST ISSUE FOR TNGT AS 8H TEMPS ARE WARMER AND THERE ARE SOME BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS (AROUND 20 KTS) THRU THE NGT.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 63 75 51 76 / 60 10 10 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 62 74 49 73 / 50 10 10 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 61 74 47 74 / 60 10 10 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 57 72 45 71 / 60 30 10 0.
MAY HAVE SOME WEAK LIFT ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH EXPECTED DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN TO SUPPORT PATCHY DRIZZLE FORMATION AFTER THESE WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSAGES. AS SFC WINDS BECOME MORE NWLY PER SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. 1028 MBAR HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
A NEW BROKEN LINE ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REGENERATE FROM SWRN TN THRU NWRN MS AND SERN AR OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS, TRACKING THRU OUR FORECAST AREA FROM 22-02Z. CHANGES ARE FEW TO THE UPCOMING FORECAST THRU THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND MIGRATING INTO THE SERN U.
COOLER AIR HAS SETTLED IN WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS.
TEMPS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO FALL INTO THE LOW 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE.
801 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN THROUGH TONIGHT.
704 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS KENTUCKY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY.
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BACK THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES APPEAR LIKELY ON THURSDAY WITH REMNANT BOUNDARIES AROUND AND UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INITIATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKED INTO CENTRAL NV. THEN BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SCATTERED IN THE VALLEYS AFTER 18Z.
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER FOR THE AREA ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. SLIGHT WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO BROUGHT ANOTHER DAY OF COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. A STRONG DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY THE TROUGH AND PUSH IT TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY.
828 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM TN TO THE CAROLINAS WILL GET BETTER ORGANIZED TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST AND OFF OF THE CAROLINAS BY THU EVENING. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE LOW PRES CENTER AND ALONG AN INVERTED SFC TROF AND OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THRU THU MORNING BEFORE IT BEGINS TO TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE HAS BEEN A STEADY STREAM OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER MN/WI OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDING BACK UP INTO CENTRAL IA. RIDGE LOBES FLANKED THIS FEATURE TO THE NORTH AND WEST. LEE TROF SIDE LLVL NORTHEAST FLOW WITH LOW DPT INFLUX MAKING FOR EVAPO-COOLING MACHINE WITH THE PASSING RAIN SHIELD OFF THE VORT MAX PUSHING ACRS NW INTO CENTRAL IA ATTM. SFC TEMPS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING ALL AFTERNOON LONG OR EVEN HAVE LOST GROUND-COOLED INTO THE LOW/MID 40S. ESPECIALLY THE LOWER DECKS FROM NW-TO-SE LATER TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING. SFC WINDS TO BACK AROUND FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE NORTH AND WEST AROUND THE PASSING SFC TROF AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
BUT EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS IN THE 30S IN VALLEY AREAS AND ALSO OVER THE WESTERN CWA WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH.
803 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
Canadian high pressure will build southward into the region but low levels will remain moist. Clouds will linger much if not all of Thursday allowing temperatures to only climb into the lower of middle 60s.
631 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015 00Z TAF issuance Complicated terminal forecast tonight and Thursday behind a cold front that moved through earlier today. /ISSUED 241 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015/ The active weather pattern will continue through the remainder of the week under persistent SW flow aloft thanks to continued upper troughing over the western ConUS. Currently have a cold front slowly sinking south toward the Pecos River Valley this afternoon with temperatures generally in the 60s across much of SE NM and the Permian Basin thanks to abundant cloud cover and cold air advection. To the south, plenty of heating and moisture has resulted in increased instability across these areas and we already have some elevated convection developing just to the north of the front and strong to severe storms across the Lower Trans Pecos/Big Bend area.
WEAK FORCING AND CONVERGENCE IS ONGOING WITH IN THIS LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE STILL OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL IOWA.
/ISSUED 355 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/ THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING IN THE FRONT DOOR IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS OUTFLOW THIS MORNING. BUT THE DIGGING WESTERN TROUGH WILL LUMBER EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND WE ARE STILL SET UP FOR INCREASING COVERAGE OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT WILL BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE TOO AS THIS COLD FRONT WILL ONLY LAST A COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE WASHING OUT.
830 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR COOL CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO KEEP THE FROST POTENTIAL FAIRLY LOW IN MOST AREAS DESPITE SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING. AREAD OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
CLOUDS TRYING TO PUSH NORTH RUNNING INTO A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL SD INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/US AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED FROST SOUTHWEST TONIGHT BUT OVERALL WARMER TEMPERATURES SO DO NOT THINK IT WARRANTS A FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT. ACROSS THE WEST H850 TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY BY ABOUT 3 TO 4 DEGREES.
WITH LOWS REACHING THE LOW 40S OR EVEN SOME UPPER 30S. 2 PM SURFACE MAP SHOWED LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS EXTENDED NORTH AND EAST FROM THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE. BUT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA SHOULD BRING KEEP SKIES AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ADVECTING MODERATE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR TO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEGINNING LATE IN THE MORNING. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF WARMER AIR MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY.
BENEFICIAL RAINS HAVE MOVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND AREAS TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
LOWS NEAR 70 TO THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS FROM AROUND 90/LWR 90S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE EASTERN CANADA WITH A PARADE OF COLD AIRMASSES ARRIVING IN OUR AREA. ANOTHER PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.
TEMPS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO FALL INTO THE LOW 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE. LATER ON TONIGHT AND TOMORROW A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DRYING US OUT AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.
77 /ISSUED 626 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/ SHRA/TSRA AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 00Z-02Z.
THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER THU. WARMER FOR FRI.
800 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS. DRIER AIR EXPECTED THURSDAY BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH.
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER FOR THE AREA ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. SLIGHT WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS CLOUD BUILDUPS NOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SAN BENITO COUNTY.
ALTHOUGH SOME THINNING OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK IN PAST COUPLE HOURS HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE A FEW DEGREES. MID/UPPER LEVELS DRY AS H5 RIDGE NOSES IN OVER ROCKIES. RIDGE JUST TO OUR EAST WITH MODELS BRINGING H5/H7 CUTOFF LOW INTO THE ROCKIES. SSE FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WILL ALLOW FOR GULF MOISTURE TO FUNNEL UP NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE MODELS HAVE WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEVELOP. RIDGE FAIRLY STAGNANT BUT DOES HINT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO FEED INTO CWA. WITH TROUGH SLIDING EAST SOME IN TANDEM. PLACEMENT OF RIDGE TOMORROW WILL AFFECT HIGHS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. COOLER WEST. ANOTHER SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN US IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT.
Drizzle may continue into the early evening hours before high pressure begins to move in tonight and dries conditions out.
EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORING THE NORTHEASTERN SECTOR OF THE CONTINENT. AS A RESULT HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LOW- MID CHC RANGE FOR THE SOUTH- CENTRAL ZONES WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE MD BORDER.
957 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015 REGIONAL 88DS SHOW CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE THE LAST HOUR OR SO IN THE VICINITY OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROF NOTED JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DESPITE LOSS OF HEATING AND LACK OF GOOD DISTURBANCES ALOFT FEEL THIS ACTIVITY COULD STILL LINGER AWHILE AS AREA LIES UNDER INFLUENCE OF DECENT THETA-E RIDGING. PLUS THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT TOWARD THE NRN ZONES WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A LITTLE ADDITIONAL LIFT AS WELL. A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO EAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA WILL BE SLOWING AS WAVES MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH BPT AND LCH WITH MVFR CIG/VIS AT LCH. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN U. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MEMORIAL DAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA TOWARD THE MN BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DEEPENING IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS IT BECOMES MORE NWLY ORIENTED TO SUPPORT MARGINAL LIFT FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE FORMATION ACROSS ALL AREAS BEHIND THESE LOW PRESSURE PASSAGES SFC/ALOFT. MAY HAVE SOME WEAK LIFT ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH EXPECTED DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN TO SUPPORT PATCHY DRIZZLE FORMATION AFTER THESE WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSAGES. AS SFC WINDS BECOME MORE NWLY PER SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. 1028 MBAR HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
BUT BREEZES WILL KEEP BREAKS IN THE LOWEST DECKS. WEAK 500 MB RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH A SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE MIDWEST WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO CENTRAL TX LATER TONIGHT INTO THURS WHERE THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE DFW METROPLEX AND WILL MOVE THROUGH KACT BY 01Z. BUT WITH A COLD FRONT PEELING UP A VERY UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER. SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER MAY HELP INITIATE A FEW LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES.
UPPER FLOW WILL BACK IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. A DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EJECTING TROUGH FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE THURSDAY. UNSETTLED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING SLOWLY EDGES EASTWARD.
SFC ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH ACROSS N TX. /ISSUED 316 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/ AFTN CONVECTION WILL WANE TOWARD EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING BUT A COLD FRONT OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT AND APPROACH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH DAYS DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS BETWEEN 82-85 DEGREES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
850 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015 SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG INTO NORTHEAST/CENTRAL TX THIS EVENING AND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD OVERNIGHT INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES. /ISSUED 634 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/ SFC ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH ACROSS N TX.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AROUND 05Z TONIGHT. BUT WE STILL EXPECT AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH TOWARD OUR AREA. HIGH INSTABILITY AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IS INTERACTING WITH A DRY LINE PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IN THE BIG BEND AREA AND OFF THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY COUNTIES AFTER 00Z AND DEVELOP STORMS ALONG IT AND WEST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR.
PERSISTENT PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U. WITH INDIVIDUAL UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE LOWS ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH AND COME INTO CALIFORNIA AND THEN THE GREAT BASIN.
742 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR COOL CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO KEEP THE FROST POTENTIAL FAIRLY LOW IN MOST AREAS DESPITE SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING. AREAD OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO EAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA WILL BE SLOWING AS WAVES MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH BPT AND LCH WITH MVFR CIG/VIS AT LCH. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN U. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MEMORIAL DAY.
927 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
SKIES WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT WHILE WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 12Z THU.
BUT WE STILL EXPECT AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH TOWARD OUR AREA. HIGH INSTABILITY AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IS INTERACTING WITH A DRY LINE PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IN THE BIG BEND AREA AND OFF THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY COUNTIES AFTER 00Z AND DEVELOP STORMS ALONG IT AND WEST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR.
946 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS KENTUCKY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY.
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SE U. AND VERY CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE OUT OVER THE PLAINS. AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY TAKES OVER THU NIGHT/FRI. THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF A DRAMATICALLY DEEPENING LARGE SCALE SWRN CONUS MID/UPPER TROF BY SAT. THE ONSET OF PCPN WILL BE THE RESULT OF A MID LEVEL SHRTWV IMPULSE EJECTING OUT OF THE SWRN CONUS TROF AND ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. A SFC WARM FRONT IS ALSO SLATED TO MOVE NWD THROUGH THE REGION.
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DRY AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS HIGH PRESSURE/WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN. FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE.
EVEN IN THE PRESENCE OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTLED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
1048 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS. DRIER AIR EXPECTED THURSDAY BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH.
653 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015 00Z TAF CYCLE COOL AND MOIST AIR MASS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME IFR TO LIFR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AT ALL THREE TAF SITES.
Lows last night back in the plains were mostly in the low 40s and upper 30s so going with the colder numbers seemed reasonable.
802 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
1224 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015 BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON M/ AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS. A WEAK UPPER TROF HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TN VALLEY.
437 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015 A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION IN THE NEAR TERM WITH DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR NOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS. VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR CONTINUES IN THE LOWER LEVELS. INCREASED MOISTURE/RAINFALL WILL ALSO MAKE FOR NARROW DIURNAL TEMP RANGES WITH MINS IN THE LOWER 70S AND HIGHS NEAR 90 AND AN OVERALL VERY MUGGY FEEL TO THE AIR.
241 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FLARED ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS A FEW HOURS AGO. A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RELATIVELY BROAD HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS ACROSS THE KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ALIGN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA WHILE INTENSIFYING.
154 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
340 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATER TONIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
137 PM PDT TUE JUN 9 2015 A TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BLANCA MOVES BY TO OUR EAST.
317 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A STALLED COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH ALONG THE OH RIVER AND AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD ACROSS ALL OF KENTUCKY. THINKING THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE AND WITH MAX TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 80S. WEAK GRADIENT AND CLEARING SKIES WILL BE THE CASE OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH THE DEW POINT RECOVERY TONIGHT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WELL IN CONTROL FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY SHIFTING EAST AND SOUTHERLY WARM AND MOIST FLOW INTO THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR POSSIBLY SOME OF THE HOTTEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. UNDER WEAK GRADIENT AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. ESPECIALLY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S TONIGHT.
316 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND DISSIPATES OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.
340 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE ON HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.
212 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CENTER OF UPPER LOW DRIFTING ACROSS NY STATE. DRAGGING COLD FRONT /NOW IN NW PA/ ACROSS STATE THROUGH THIS EVE. WHILE SUNSHINE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO PEAK IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. MOST LOCALES WILL BE DRY AND CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE OCCURS POST- TROUGH-AXIS PASSAGE. VERY MINOR RIDGING AT THE SFC WILL PROVIDE JUST 18 TO 24 HRS OF DRY/NO RAIN.
207 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE AREA TODAY AND DISSIPATES OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.
654 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
210 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE AREA TODAY AND DISSIPATES OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.
331 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN THROUGH NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS HAS PUSHED INTO NORTH ALABAMA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY WILL BE SOUTH OF I-20 AHEAD OF ADVANCING SURFACE TROF. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS HAS PUSHED INTO NORTH ALABAMA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY WILL BE SOUTH OF I-20 AHEAD OF ADVANCING SURFACE TROF.
657 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND INTO WESTERN QUEBEC BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
329 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRUDGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED YET FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS OVERTAKES THE REGION.