Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
555 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015 ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD AFTERNOON AS THE REGION IS IN A DEEP SW FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. SATELLITE WV IMAGES SHOWED A CHAIN OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SW INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN CENTRAL CA. CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TEMPER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS RESULTING IN WARMER MINS TONIGHT IN THE 40S. STAYED NEAR A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA KEYS OVERNIGHT. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE EXCEPTIONALLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE COUPLED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER OVERNIGHT. /ISSUED 556 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015/ A LITTLE WARMER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE LOW 70S AGAIN DUE TO DOWN SLOPING OFF THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MN.
Due to the southerly breeze and increasing cloudiness, low temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than last night. 5 inches expected with the highest amounts in sw IL. A cooler day Monday with highs in the 50s and mildest near the IN border where rain moves in later during Monday afternoon. Warm front to lift northward across central IL on Tue with continued categorical pops Tue and Tue night. Have milder highs in the low to mid 60s Tue and mildest over southern half of CWA. Strong low pressure eject ne into the upper MS river valley Wed morning. Have 50-70 kt 850 mb ssw jet ahead of this low pressure over IL along with precipitable water values of 1.
/ISSUED 346 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015/ (Tonight and Monday) A potent upper level trough currently across the West Coast will move west and approach the Rockies on Monday. Overnight lows are generally forecast to remain in the low 60s. On Monday, high temperatures will be warmer than what is forecast today, generally in the mid to upper 70s.
Strong southerly wind this afternoon continues to advect the low level moisture northward into the area, maintaining overcast skies through the day tomorrow. Rainfall amounts tonight through tomorrow afternoon are generally on the low side with less than a quarter of an inch. Low temps are not anticipated to cool given the insulation from overcast skies and rainfall with readings in the lower 50s. Conflicting lapse rates and subsequent amount of instability is overall on the low side (less than 800 J/KG) leading to a lower confidence in coverage and strength of any thunderstorm that is able to form, given the increasing effective shear over 50 kts in the afternoon.
LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TOMORROW.
CLEARING AND COOLER BY MONDAY EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LINGERING SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BRINGING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TO OUR REGION. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
645 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY.
THE DRAMATIC INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO CONDENSATION ON COOLER SFCS. ALL EYES CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED ON THE STRONG UPPER LOW THAT LIFTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER LOW AT 500MB MOVES FROM EASTERN CO/NORTHWEST NM AREAS ON MONDAY NIGHT.
908 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE CAROLINAS HAS WEAKENED SOME. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING.
A LITTLE WARMER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
1014 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY.
BUT WITH THE MOISTURE MOVING INTO COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH SOME FOG FORMATION IS STILL POSSIBLE SO KEPT THE PATCHY FOG MENTION.
MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW. THE FIRST PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND AN INVERTED TROUGH AS THE UPPER LOW DIPS INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT.
ATLANTIC ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH BREEZY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL HELP SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN CHANCES WHILE COASTAL TROF AT THE SURFACE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL HELP ENHANCE A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS THAT MAY PUSH ONTO THE COAST BEFORE DISSIPATING AND WILL KEEP ONGOING FORECAST OF ISOLD RAIN SHOWER CHANCES ALONG THE COAST AT 20% OR LESS THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK COASTAL TROF SETTING UP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
610 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK.
Precip along the front moved through the area in the morning followed by showers and thunderstorms underneath the upper trough in the afternoon. Upper ridge over the eastern Pacific shifts closer to the West Coast over NorCal Monday with breezy northerly flow likely to develop across much of the region.
RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S WEST TO THE LOW 40S EAST. BUT BELIEVE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD FIRM UNTIL MORE APPRECIABLE MOISTURE ADVECTION CAN SET UP MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MORE CLOUDS AND WIND TONIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS. SO MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.
SFC RIDGING HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF OUR TERMINAL LOCATIONS TODAY AND WE SHOULD SEE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISS VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL HELP TO DRAW THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF ON MONDAY. A WARM FRONT JUST OFFSHORE THE SE TX/SW LA COAST WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION BY MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND IN ITS WAKE. COVERAGE OF SCATTERED SHWRS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND AS A SFC WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWA. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA A FEW HRS AHEAD OF THE SEVERE CONVECTION.
603 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BACK TO SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO EAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO ORGANIZE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FULL LATITUDE NORTH AMERICAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.
BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U. AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE EASTERN GULF.
THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE REGION A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXITING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AT THIS TIME. THE LOW WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURRED JUST BEFORE 7 PM. COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO WILL REACH KTWF/KJER BY ABOUT 05Z.
AS A DEEP/ENERGETIC UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
310 PM MST SUN NOV 15 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS MOVING ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
High pressure over the Carolinas will keep light east- northeasterly flow in place across the region.
SE WINDS ARE PUSHING WARMER MARINE AIR IN TO THE AREA. ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND FROM THE COAST ON MONDAY.
EXPECT FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
TROUGH DIGGING ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH STRONG RIDGING AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO CENTRAL CANADA. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. WE ANTICIPATE SUFFICIENT SATURATION IN THE LOWER BL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL RUSH THROUGH WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND AND NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALL THROUGH THE DAY.
755 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TONIGHT. A FEW BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.
925 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
COVERAGE OF SCATTERED SHWRS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND AS A SFC WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWA. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA A FEW HRS AHEAD OF THE SEVERE CONVECTION.
600 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON HAS PROVIDED CLEAR SKIES TO MOST OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST AND CAUSES THE UPPER FLOW TO BACK TO SOUTHERLY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN AB WITH LEE TROUGH INTO EASTERN CO AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE WEST COAST WITH UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST OF THE CWA. UPPER TROUGH SPLITS TONIGHT AS IT REACHES THE ROCKIES. DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWEST/WEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS TONIGHT. UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
The aforementioned storm system is forecast to dig into the southwest US and become a closed low on Monday.
702 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK.
514 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A DEEP TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
BUT WOULD BE MORE INCLINED TO LEAN TOWARD ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE THETA-E RIDGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
224 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE COMFORTABLY LOWER TODAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT.
130 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
524 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT.
AND WITH AN UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH NOTED IN ID/MT EXTENDING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AN AXIS OF 850MB 8C+ DEWPOINTS EXTENDED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. WITH A DRY POCKET UNDER MID- LEVEL RIDGING FROM EASTERN NEB/EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO IA/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HAVE INDICATED TEMPERATURES ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TODAY. UPPER=LEVEL TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY. WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT OF SD FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP WITH CIGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND A RIDGE OVERHEAD. THE 500MB TROUGH OVER ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PLACES CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST WYOMING. UPPER LOW TRACKS SLOWLY ALONG WY/CO BORDER OVERNIGHT.
RIDGING A- LOFT APPEARS TO BE A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
614 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT.
SO TENDED TO GO TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CONVECTION. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND NEAR CALM FLOW. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS LOWS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS.
130 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY KEEPING THE WEATHER MAINLY DRY AND WARM.
256 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL MEAN COOLER, AND LESS HUMID AIR THROUGH FRIDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR RETURNS QUICKLY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S. HIGH PRESSURE IS QUICK TO EXIT THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH MILDER S-SW FLOW RETURNING ALOFT.
An upper level trough currently over the Desert Southwest will approach far West Texas this evening, with large scale lift overspreading West Central Texas.
MORE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AND SOME CUMULUS IS POPPING OVER THE RIDGES. A REX BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE OFFSHORE WITH THE RIDGE ALONG THE ALASKA/CANADA BOUNDARY AND THE LOW NEAR 40N 150W.
A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S IN THE FAR NORTH AND WEST TO MID 70S THROUGH THE SIOUX CITY TO STORM LAKE CORRIDOR.
1258 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015 MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. THINK NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PRECIP WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN KILX CWA.
As the cluster of storms enters into a region less worked over with plentiful SBCAPE, warmer temps (in the 80s), and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s, they have become a bit more feisty as the afternoon progresses. Upper- level trough axis will be pushing this impulse along but will also provide a focus for stormy activity throughout the day on Friday. The limiting factor will be that the synoptic-scale dynamics will be offset from the main storm activity, with better shear values immediately along the front side of the trough axis itself.
REDUCED POPS TO CHC WEST OF THIS FEATURE AND EAST OF THE SECOND ROUND WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS FAR WRN MN.
18Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN IMPLIED FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI.
1130 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015 TODAY A MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THE LOW CONFIDENCE COMES INTO PLAY TONIGHT AND CONTINUES FRIDAY MORNING.
An exiting low pressure system will wrap around moisture into the the region this afternoon and evening. A weak back door cold front associated with this feature has produced a line of showers and thunderstorms into portions of west central Montana. Friday appears to be slightly warmer, but another round of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.
Decided to favor the GFS and ECMWF and issued a Flash Flood Watch until 10z for the southeastern Permian Basin and the Lower Trans Pecos. The upper level trough will still be over the Upper Midwest on Friday and a dryline will be across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos by Friday afternoon.
WITH THIS GENERAL TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
347 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
556 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND MOVES OFF THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW TO RETURN.
AND THEN NORTHERLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AFTER 10Z TO 14Z FRIDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS WAVE COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO HELP TO PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
241 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015 225 PM CDT THE FORECAST AREA FINDS ITSELF BETWEEN TWO STATIONARY FRONTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. THIS RIDGE HAS ALLOWED A LAKE BREEZE WITH LAKESIDE COOLING AT THE CHICAGO SHORE ABOUT 14 DEGREES COOLER THAN INLAND AT ORD/MDW AS OF 200 PM. THE FRONT OF INTEREST FOR OUR AREA TONIGHT WILL BE THE ONE TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EASTWARD HAS INFLUENCED A SOUTHEAST FLOW. OVERALL FLOW WILL ALSO THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST EARLY FRIDAY.
217 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT.
622 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFFECTING OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. ALONG THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TROF WHICH WAS COINCIDENT WITH A DIFFERNTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY DUE TO THE MORNINGS STRATUS COVERAGE. DEEP RIDGING BECOMES MORE ASSERTIVE. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND A TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST.
540 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COME TO AN END BY THE END OF THE MONTH AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS WEEKEND. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE WHICH SHOULD FAVOR A COOLER WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE MONTH OF JUNE. LIGHT WINDS BENEATH UPPER LVL RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN NORTHWARD-DRIFTING PULSE TYPE TSRA WITH LITTLE THREAT OF SVR WX. HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SUBSIDENCE ONCE DAYTIME HEATING DIMINISHES FRIDAY EVENING.
AGAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS. MODELS SHOW THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS MOVING ACROSS COLORADO. FRIDAY'S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 3-7 C COOLER THAN TODAY'S. TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND IN THE EASTERN SIERRA.
THIS IS WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE UNDERCUTS THE UPPER TROF BY MORNING.
155 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK INVERTED TROF WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE DISSIPATING AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. STILL APPEARS THAT MID LVL DRYING ASSOC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION FRIDAY ALTHOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION.
319 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY BUT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
330 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015 RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND LOWER MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN HAVE KEPT CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM WEST OF THE I-59 CORRIDOR. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGING WEAKENS AND SLIDES EASTWARD AND THE AREA COMES MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
252 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015 UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER WESTERN WYOMING IS ADDING STRONG ASCENT OVER OUR WESTERN CWA. THE UPPER JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS LOW IS ACCENTUATING THE LIFT AS THE EXIT REGION NOSES INTO WESTERN COLORADO. UP NORTH COLD ADVECTION AND ENERGY IN THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SKIES WILL CLEAR AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. A FAST TRANSITION OCCURS THIS WEEKEND FROM STORMY AND COOL TO DRIER AND MUCH WARMER.
GENERAL WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. THINKING THERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FOR SOME HEATING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. AFTER SOME MORNING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE VICINITY OF DEPARTING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHERN WI. LOOK FOR COOLER DRIER AIR TO OVERTAKE THE AREA AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN.
151 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE AREA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY.
143 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY.
639 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND ARE BEGINNING TO FORM IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN MONTANA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA. A SLOW MOVING N-S ORIENTED TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS THIS MORNING. ANOTHER TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT SUPPORTING AN ENHANCED AREA OF CONVERGENCE WITH SHRA CHANCES CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
603 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COME TO AN END BY THE END OF THE MONTH AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS WEEKEND. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE WHICH SHOULD FAVOR A COOLER WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE MONTH OF JUNE. LIGHT WINDS BENEATH UPPER LVL RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN NORTHWARD-DRIFTING PULSE TYPE TSRA WITH LITTLE THREAT OF SVR WX. HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SUBSIDENCE ONCE DAYTIME HEATING DIMINISHES FRIDAY EVENING.
350 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY TRACK ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING. HAVE INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER NRN WISCONSIN. BY FRIDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN WI. UPPER LEVELS WILL FEATURE A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL STAY IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
255 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COME TO AN END BY THE END OF THE MONTH AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS WEEKEND. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE WHICH SHOULD FAVOR A COOLER WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE MONTH OF JUNE. 850 MB COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE LOWER SUSQ AND IS EXITING THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE COMMONWEALTH AT MID AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS FALL TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS ALL BUT EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL PA TONIGHT. ALLOWING 5H RIDGE TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA AND BECOME CENTERED OVER NJ BY 12Z FRI. LIGHT WINDS BENEATH UPPER LVL RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN NORTHWARD DRIFTING. HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
WHEN MEAN NRN STREAM VORT MAX/UPPER TROF DIVES INTO GREAT LAKES FROM CANADIAN INTERIOR PROVINCES. IT WILL DRIVE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO/THRU MID MS VALLEY.
WILL CROSS THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING BEFORE EXITING THE COAST WITH A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND MOVES OFF THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW TO RETURN.