Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Hot and dry conditions continue with upper ridge over the Treasure state today. With high pressure in the Dakotas, southeast winds will be strengthening today bringing some increase in low level moisture. Cold front moves over the western zones during the late night hours, then continues east on Monday, reaching the North Dakota border by early afternoon.
Subtle troughing influence today will cause breezy to gusty afternoon winds. High pressure returns Monday and holds until a low pressure system brings cooler air and gusty winds for the end of the week.
653 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Moisture will increase in the southerly flow between high pressure off the coast and a cold front approaching from the northwest.
1127 PM MDT Sat Jun 3 2017 Tonight will be warmer with increasing wind, especially over the mountains.
On Sunday, the upper trough will shift slowly east, and could have a weak disturbance move south over our area on the back side of the trough during the afternoon. The upper trough axis will shift east of our area on Sunday, but with a 500mb vorticity lobe entering our area on the back side of the trough, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible.
The upper level ridge will breakdown today as a trough approaches from the west.
520 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 An upper low over the Southern Plains will shear out as it moves into the state today and into the eastern part of the state tonight and Monday. There is a trough of low pressure or remnant outflow boundary that extends across east central Texas down into south central Texas and this feature appears to be the focus for tonight's activity. The upper trough currently over West Texas will slide east tonight. The upper level trough axis will push east of the region Monday night. Not really seeing a trigger but the proximity of the upper trough, a weak cold front and PW values near 1.
642 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 A cold front will move south across the area today and tonight causing scattered thunderstorms.
408 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Moisture will increase in the southerly flow between high pressure off the coast and a cold front approaching from the northwest.
The main weather story will be the heat as high pressure aloft continues to strengthen over the region.
638 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Low pressure over the central Great Lakes will lift a warm front north of the area early today. The low will move to New England by Monday morning which will drive a trailing cold front through the area.
For Sunday, a weak warm front will lift north toward the Ohio River during the late morning/early afternoon hours bringing a more moist, unstable airmass into central KY. Sunday night a cold front and upper trough will drop south from the Great Lakes region providing additional forcing for continued convection Sun night. High temps Sun should range from the lower 80s over southern KY (clouds/rain) to mid to upper 80s over northern KY/southern IN (less rain/clouds). The precipitation forecast on Monday is dependent on how quickly the upper trough and cold front sweep south through the region. With the cooler airmass beginning to enter the area Mon, high temps will be limited to the upper 70s to lower 80s.
A cold front moving through the state this afternoon and evening will bring an increase in clouds and some isolated showers and thunderstorms along with stronger gusty winds.
309 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 The 500mb pattern shows a large ridge stretching from the Baja Peninsula up through the 4-corners and eastern MT to Saskatchewan.
402 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Current conditions across the area feature a decent ridge to valley temperatures difference currently across eastern Kentucky. Current pattern indicates a dome of high pressure just off the southeastern coast bringing gulf moisture northward into KY today and continuing through Monday morning. A weakened cold front will begin to push through Monday afternoon as pops will be on the decrease with a lessening thunder chance. A cold front is expected to be moving into KY from the northwest as the period begins.
Southerly flow on the backside of the low has developed across northeast Wyoming and the Black Hills area. Upper ridging will continue to bring dry weather to the area today with southerly winds increasing from the south. Warm air advecting in from the west will bring warmer temperatures to the area ranging from 3 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Models continue to show an upper wave crossing Wyoming Monday into the CWA along with a cold front at the surface.
656 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 A cold front forming near Lake Erie will drop to Northern Ohio today, before traveling south across Ohio on Monday.
111 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 High pressure centered over the area will move east tonight. The high will drift off the East coast on Sunday allowing low pressure to track SE out of Canada into the Central Great Lakes. The low will track across the Eastern Lakes Monday forcing a cold front across the forecast area Sunday evening.
225 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 A few light showers or sprinkles have continued to percolate across the region early this morning, as a poorly organized trough slowly spins across central Oklahoma.
An upper level trough is sitting just off the west coast as its accompanying surface cold front drapes SW-to-NE across central Oregon and eastern Washington as of 3 AM MDT this morning. Monday will be dry and much cooler, with maximum temperatures near normal.
354 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Initially blocky pattern with the slow moving upper low still in our vicinity but edging slowly to the east today and tonight.
550 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 850 mb trough still slowly drifting southward tonight. Another very warm day as high pressure drifts across the region.
325 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 A cold front will move south across the area today and tonight causing scattered thunderstorms.
441 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 The weak and broad upper level trof of low pressure which has affected our fcst area the past few days will continue moving further south and east away from the region today. Have continued with slight chc to chance pops across central and eastern sections with the highest values over the east and used areal qualifier wording.
521 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 An upper low over the Southern Plains will shear out as it moves into the state today and into the eastern part of the state tonight and Monday. There is a trough of low pressure or remnant outflow boundary that extends across east central Texas down into south central Texas and this feature appears to be the focus for tonight's activity. The upper trough currently over West Texas will slide east tonight. The upper level trough axis will push east of the region Monday night. Not really seeing a trigger but the proximity of the upper trough, a weak cold front and PW values near 1.
354 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Weak high pressure will remain in control of the weather through today. Low pressure moves east from the Great Lakes to the northeast states today into Monday. pushing a slow moving cold front across the region Monday night.
651 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Low pressure over the central Great Lakes will lift a warm front north of the area early today. The low will move to New England by Monday morning which will drive a trailing cold front through the area.
Since most of the high resolution guidance shows the showers developing just east of the FA, will stick with that route for now. Monday continues to look similar or a tad cooler than today, but still above normal for early June.
Cooler conditions arrive Monday, but will be followed by warming temperatures later in the week. At least one additional wave of showers and thunderstorms is likely to follow during the evening into the overnight tonight, with the severe threat diminishing completely with passage of the cold front and upper trough overnight tonight. Cooler conditions are expected behind the front Monday, though a few rain showers will be likely from central Montana north on the back side of the low centered over southern Canada. Getting a bit more specific with the severe threat today, the greatest hail threat will be primarily over the higher terrain of western and southwest Montana, with the damaging wind threat extending across nearly our entire CWA.
307 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Early this morning, a cold front was located across northern Iowa into southern MN and central Wisconsin. Temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s in front of the cold front.
402 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 A closed low over the southern plains will rejoin the prevailing flow today, eventually shifting southeastward towards the Gulf Coast. As this occurs, a trough will be building into the Great Lakes region. This Northeast trough will help establish northwest flow over the Midwest through much of the period. The cold front mentioned in the short term section above will have moved into southeast MO and southwest IL by Monday morning. A reinforcing PV anomaly will slide southeast around the building Great Lakes trough, which may help to spark a few showers/storms along the front across the far southern CWA late Monday morning into early Monday afternoon.
516 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected for the first half of the week with the encroachment of a front and cold upper low pressure. Outflow and prefrontal troughing are likely to provide convective support across that same area into the afternoon as the disturbance progresses east-southeastward.
255 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Weak high pressure will remain in control of the weather through today. Low pressure moves east from the Great Lakes to the northeast states today into Monday. pushing a slow moving cold front across the region Monday night.
333 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 The upper level low that helped trigger the thunderstorm activity yesterday is slowly progressing southward into the southern plains, taking most of the thunderstorm activity with it. Upper level ridging will develop over the Rockies and western high by tonight into Monday with highs rising into the mid to high 80s Monday.
Some lingering showers/thunderstorms can be expected overnight before coverage increases again on Monday as a cold front works its way into the area. While the severe threat will remain limited given weak shear, heavy rainfall will continue to be the primary threat with a very moist airmass remaining in place ahead of the cold front.
322 AM MDT Sun Jun 4 2017 High pressure remains in control today bringing a very similar day to what we saw yesterday. Went ahead and kept PoPs in for the highest terrain for the Flat Tops, West Elks, and San Juans for this afternoon and evening for very isolated showers and storm. On Monday, the high pressure ridge axis will shift to our east as a trough centered over the Montana/Canadian border drifts eastward. The effects of this trough look to stay over Wyoming, bringing some strong storms there, though we'll see a slight uptick in convection especially up north.
442 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 A thunderstorm complex in Northwest Texas, near the core of a nearly stationary upper low, has steadily intensified early this morning. This complex should remain fairly compact this morning, drifting to the south in weak northerly flow, upstream of the mid-level trough. Although these two features may seem well separated in space, some guidance is suggesting that they could eventually form a PV trough between them, setting the stage for a sudden flourish of convective development across much of North and Central Texas today as the boundary layer heats and destabilizes.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to occur during the forecast period as closed 500 mb low pressure over Oklahoma gradually moves southeast into east Texas, with the axis of this feature approaching Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley from the northwest. Above normal temperatures today will climb to well above normal levels on Monday, as surface winds veer out of the southwest and allow for a downsloping effect off the higher terrain of neighboring Mexico.
Today the Rockies/Front Range thermal ridge strengthens and expands into the western Dakotas. Meanwhile the Manitoba/Ontario low pressure system moves south across the western Great Lakes, followed by cool, Canadian high pressure. This high nudges into eastern North Dakota today. The northeastern third of the state will likely be more affected by the cool high pressure system - thus temperatures in the north central and James Valley should reach into the 80s. Tonight the upper ridge moves east slowly as an upper low emerging from the Pacific Northwest continues moving east across the Rockies along the Canadian border. On Monday the remnants of the upper ridge moves east over the Dakotas as the vigorous S/WV upper level trough/closed low continues moving east across Alberta/western Montana into Saskatchewan.
weak SFC/ low-level trough axis situated over the mid-state. which is expected to pass the mid-state late Monday night as a mid/upper closed low rotates out of Canada.
1205 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 A chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the early evening before skies clear out and lows fall to a seasonably mild night in the low to mid 50s. At the surface a cold front is sweeping from west to east across northern Minnesota leading to clearing skies and some post- frontal cu developing. Brief small hail is possible with these storms given the cooler air aloft behind the front, but this threat will wane as the sun sets.
225 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 A low developing over Texas, and associated moisture, will shift a little farther east Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front, with another round of diurnal convection.
604 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Moisture will increase in the southerly flow between high pressure off the coast and a cold front approaching from the northwest.
640 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Dry and sunny again today though a low pressure system slowly drags a cold front through Monday night. Upper low with cooler conditions and showers midweek. High pressure by the end of the week. Low pressure wave will move east across southern zones at the start of the period, with showers and thunderstorms, some heavy at times as it does so.
Under mostly cloudy skies, temperatures along the island chain are in the lower 80s. A mid to upper level trough will continue to dig toward the west/central Gulf over the next few days, forcing the high pressure axis further southward. For this forecast, pushed the rain chance to likely for the following 4 periods thanks to a veered, very moist, and unstable profile as the mid to upper trough axis swings nearby.
Cooler temperatures are forecast for Sunday as a trough passes over the region. High pressure then builds into the area for the beginning of the work week leading to warmer temperatures inland.
306 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Upper low will begin to ever so slowly translate south and southeast by late today and tonight. Before this occurs will see another day with showers and thunderstorms developing and drifting slowly around the low. Some lingering precip chances across the south/southeast on Monday, otherwise most of the area will be dry with warmer temps.
650 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Weak high pressure will remain in control of the weather through today. Low pressure moves east from the Great Lakes to the northeast states today into Monday. pushing a slow moving cold front across the region Monday night.
1052 PM PDT Sat Jun 3 2017 Showers with embedded thunderstorms will increase overnight into Sunday across eastern Washington and north Idaho as an upper level trough heads into the region. Dry and warmer weather will arrive for the first half of the work week, followed by more unsettled and much cooler weather by the end of the week. An upper level trough will dig offshore, thus pivoting the frontal band over eastern WA more meridionally across the region.
1218 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 The RAP model and Satellite indicate the upper low across Nern Colo will drop south this evening. It would appear this process is occurring as a the upper low across Srn Canada moves east toward the Great Lakes. Once the upper low moves south late this evening, rain chances will end. High pressure ridge will remain nearly stationary from the desert southwest into up into the Rockies though the end of the week. This spells weak northwest flow aloft on the eastern periphery of the ridging across our area.
Showers continue to move through northwest Montana this morning as a cold front begins moving east across the Northern Rockies. Cooler, yet seasonal, temperatures will be felt on Monday, in the wake of Sunday's cold frontal passage.
421 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 A cold front forming near Lake Erie will drop to Northern Ohio today, before traveling south across Ohio on Monday.
426 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 An approaching warm front, will bring showers, and a few thunderstorms, back into the region by this afternoon.
1131 PM MDT Sat Jun 3 2017 An upper level ridge will remain overhead through Monday bringing above normal temperatures to the region. May see a few sprinkles over the high mountain peaks, otherwise conditions will remain dry. The ridge will amplify somewhat and become positively tilted tomorrow, which will allow some moisture to stream in from the southwest. Could see storms continue through much of the night as a cold front dives south across the forecast area.
351 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Current conditions across the area feature a decent ridge to valley temperatures difference currently across eastern Kentucky. Current pattern indicates a dome of high pressure just off the southeastern coast bringing gulf moisture northward into KY today and continuing through Monday morning. A weakened cold front will begin to push through Monday afternoon as pops will be on the decrease with a lessening thunder chance. Poor conditions will become more prominent heading into the evening and overnight as a cold front edges in from the northwest.
305 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected for the first half of the week with the encroachment of a front and cold upper low pressure. Outflow and prefrontal troughing are likely to provide convective support across that same area into the afternoon as the disturbance progresses east-southeastward.
138 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Dry and sunny again today though a low pressure system slowly drags a cold front through Monday. High pressure builds by the end of the week. A Cold front then moves through Monday into Monday evening.
Little change in the weather pattern is expected through mid week, as a strong high pressure system produces mostly clear, dry, and hot weather.
300 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Low pressure over the central Great Lakes will lift a warm front north of the area early today. The low will move to New England by Monday morning which will drive a trailing cold front through the area.
Have increased PoPs across our srn and ern areas, and have left the higher PoPs ongoing across the nw as previously fcst.
254 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 The main points of emphasis this morning will be 1) Shower/storm chances with the upper low/trough over the southern Plains thru Monday, 2) nice midweek weather, and finally 3) MCS potential toward the end of the work week. An upper low remains centered over western Oklahoma per latest satellite and short term model data. The upper low will gradually lose definition and transition to an open wave as the KS/CO border wave rotates south/southeast thru the basal portion of the trough. There will be some shower and storm potential along and ahead of the trough axis tonight into Monday.
310 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 A mid-upper level low will continue to move slowly eastward across Oklahoma today, before getting shunted southeastward late tonight into Monday, as stronger northern branch upper troughing digs into the western Great Lakes. Mid-level confluent flow on the northern periphery of the low circulation, will combine with daytime heating and anomalously high precipitable water content, resulting in a diurnal enhancement of convective coverage/intensity from about midday through this afternoon. Storms should diminish from northwest to southeast this evening, as the upper low begins the southeastward track. Drier air advection from northeasterly flow in the low-mid levels on Monday and strong insolation should allow highs in the mid-upper 80s.
There is a trough of low pressure or remnant outflow boundary that extends across east central Texas down into south central Texas and this feature appears to be the focus for tonight's activity. The upper trough currently over West Texas will slide east tonight. The upper level trough axis will push east of the region Monday night. Not really seeing a trigger but the proximity of the upper trough, a weak cold front and PW values near 1.
235 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 850 mb trough still slowly drifting southward tonight. Another very warm day as high pressure drifts across the region.
240 AM MST Sun Jun 4 2017 Little change in the weather pattern is expected through mid week, as a strong high pressure system produces mostly clear, dry, and hot weather.
Low temperatures will mainly be in the lower 70s. The upper low over the Southern Plains will drift southeast to the TX/LA Gulf Coast by Monday evening as the weak ridge is shunted eastward.
A few light showers or sprinkles have continued to percolate across the region early this morning, as a poorly organized trough slowly spins across central Oklahoma.
This trough should generate enough mixing to clear most coastal low clouds during the afternoon. Once the trough passes to our east tonight, onshore flow will slacken. This will result in warming on Monday with high temperatures expected to be about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today.
This is all due to the mid level low/trough coverage much of Texas. Maintained the higher chance to likely POPs as all this will have left over boundaries to work off of from earlier showers/storms overnight. Have trended temperatures to be slightly cooler across the northeast toward the Victoria Crossroads and northern Coastal Bend in the upper 80s, while farther west temperatures in the lower 90s still reside.
An upper low was located across the southern Plains, with little movement of this feature expected through the afternoon. Mid-80 temperatures will be the highs for today, with lows slightly cooler than the previous night in the low 60s.
Cooler conditions arrive Monday, but will be followed by warming temperatures later in the week. At least one additional wave of showers and thunderstorms is likely to follow during the evening into the overnight tonight, with the severe threat diminishing completely with passage of the cold front and upper trough overnight tonight. Cooler conditions are expected behind the front Sunday, though a few rain showers will be likely from central Montana north on the back side of the low in southern Canada. Getting a bit more specific with the severe threat today, the greatest hail threat will be primarily over the higher terrain of western and southwest Montana, with the damaging wind threat extending across nearly our entire CWA.
720 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 Weak high pressure over the region will remain in place through the weekend. High temperatures in the low-mid 80s appear on target. The increasing cloudiness across the east will limit insolation, yielding high temperatures Sunday a couple of degrees cooler than today.
This will bring drying trend to the area with slightly warmer temperatures over the Keys.
Weak troughing over the southwest this weekend will keep temperatures near average for mid September, with light southwest winds today then increasing a bit for Sunday.
1242 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 High pressure will continue to dominate the region through Sunday.
Lift looks a bit weaker than Saturday with nothing overly noticeable, maybe a weak mid level wave around the ridge.