Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON EAST COAST BEACHES THROUGH FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK THIS EVENING AS WINDS BEGIN TO LIGHTEN AFTER SUNSET AS THE GRADIENT EASES BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST. 02/RAG /ISSUED 339 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS. THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY WEATHER IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG WITH THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE HIGH WILL BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND AS THE LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.
A pretty strong cold front is making its way through Central Idaho and Western Montana this afternoon. The warmer air will push snow levels back above pass levels, with the exception of Lost Trail Pass.
901 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016 A COLD FRONT OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING OVER THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY.
527 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016 A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL END THE RAIN LATE TONIGHT. TO OCCASIONALY MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE UPR OH REGION. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
The cold front continues to slowly move through the Northern Rockies this evening. This boundary will turn into a warm front and shift northward during the day on Friday. A pretty strong cold front is making its way through Central Idaho and Western Montana this afternoon. The warmer air will push snow levels back above pass levels, with the exception of Lost Trail Pass.
COLD FRONT EDGING EVER SO SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. OTRWS GENERAL UPR RIDGING/UNSEASONABLY WARM THERMAL RIDGE HOLDS ACRS THE ERN US IN BROAD SWRLY FLW ALOFT AND CONTD WELL ABV NORMAL TEMP DEPARTURES THROUGH THE END OF THE PD. BEYOND THAT BIG BLOCKING RIDGE XPCD TO BLOWUP OVR GREENLAND AND ALLOW POLAR VORTEX TO DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO TO HUDSON BAY W/A RTN OF NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS.
851 PM MST THU MAR 10 2016 MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARM WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER COLORADO WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT. A WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE RIDGE. THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL GUSTS TO 30 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
601 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
557 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016 EVEN WITH COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. CLEARING WILL SLOWLY OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT DUE TO THIS HIGH AND EVENTUALLY SWING TO THE SE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GRADUAL CLEARING IN THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME. AS THE ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO PROCEEDS TO MERGE WITH THE WESTERLIES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ANTI-CYCLONICALLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS THIS EVENING.
01 UTC surface analysis shows the primary area of low pressure back to the west along the upper Texas coast with a frontal zone extending northeastward across the Tennessee River Valley. High pressure is still centered east of the Florida Peninsula, with our region in between these two significant features.
945 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016 UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP OUR AREA DRY AND MILD OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING TROF HAS SHIFTED WINDS SLIGHTLY AND IS BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION.
MORE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND MIXING WILL MAKE FOR A WARMER OVERNIGHT.
447 PM MST THU MAR 10 2016 00Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE STATE.
602 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
SO, THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH ANY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE LOWER LEVELS.
649 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING. THIS WILL BRING WARMER LOWS TO THE AREA WITH SOME SPOTS IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA POSSIBLY SEEING A SMALL RISE BEFORE SUNRISE. ONE AREA TO WATCH LATER TONIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE WHERE A LITTLE FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
530 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016 AT H5 STRONG BERMUDA HIGH WITH RIDGE INTO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH PHASED WITH CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. RIDGE FROM DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN CANADA AHEAD OF SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A STOUT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EAST. LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AS 850HPA RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. LOWS SIMILAR TO MAV/MET GUIDANCE SOUTH BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR WINDS AND PROXIMITY TO THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS. CONTINUED THE TREND OF USING THE WARMER MODEL GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY MAX TEMPS. WHICH GENERALLY UPPED HIGHS A DEGREE ACROSS THE BOARD TO THE LOWER/MID 70S.
A DEEP MEAN-LAYERED ANTICYCLONE PERSISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. ROOTED IN A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR BERMUDA. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. AND 7 FEET IN THE HAWK CHANNEL WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE AND IN THE GULF WATERS BEYOND FIVE FATHOMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHALLOW MOISTURE BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT MAY KEEP SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR RAIN AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS ANOMALOUS LOW/TROUGH STILL SITUATED OVER EAST TX/NORTHERN MEXICO WITH MOISTURE STREAMING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY FROM THE SUBTROPICS. THIS AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE.
A STATIONARY/PSEUDO COLD FRONT HAS BEEN STALLED ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND HAS BEEN THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ALL THE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, THE CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO FINALLY BREAK DOWN AND LIFT NORTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE PSEUDO COLD FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH OF THE AREA.
1055 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
WITH UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY CLOUD FEATURES WILL VARY WILDLY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BUT CURRENT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH CENTERED ON THE WESTERN VALLEY. FINALLY THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS TAKEN UP RESIDENCE IN MEXICO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS AND RAPIDLY FILLS IN.
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE L30S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TEENS AND 20S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
OTHERWISE SOME CIRRUS AT TIMES MOVING EAST WITH A SOUTH WIND 10 TO 15 KTS TONIGHT TEMPS WILL HOLD UP ABOVE FREEZING. KEEPING TEMPS UP ABOVE OR NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS DOMINATED AREA WEATHER RECENTLY CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST. AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
906 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016 A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL END THE RAIN LATE TONIGHT. TO OCCASIONALY MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE UPR OH REGION. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
JET ENERGY WILL STAY WELL TO THE NORTH BUT ENOUGH THERE TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN ZONES WITH THE HIGHER POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST.
OUR LARGE LUMBERING TROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO/LOWER RIO GRAND VALLEY CONTINUES TO CHURN SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASED STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NRN INTO CENTRAL OK OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT FARTHER NORTH TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON FOR MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL AS THE UPPER LOW SETTLES OVER THE HILL COUNTRY ALLOWING FOR FOCUS ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS IT SLOWS OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE BETWEEN LAREDO AND MCCALLEN NEAR THE FALCON RESERVOIR AND MOVING NORTH. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF MEXICO AND MOVE ACROSS TEXAS DURING THIS PERIOD.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND THEN BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD EARLY FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
853 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
353 PM MST THU MAR 10 2016 SPRINGLIKE WEATHER HAS RETURNED! AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL AND WARM TEMPERATURES BLANKET THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
309 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015 THE MIDWEST REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER ONTARIO.
315 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVERHEAD WITH SFC PRES GRADIENT LOOSENING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH IN PLACE. HAVE MAJORITY OF THE CWA AT FREEZING OR BELOW. BUT GIVEN THE FACT WE HAVE BEEN WARMER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH EARLY APRIL WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FREEZE HEADLINE FOR THESE TEMPERATURES. BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE WITH AN EXTRA BOOST FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT CURRENT WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MONTANA. SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS. TEMPERATURES AT 20Z ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO THE MID 60S IN NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. IT WILL BE RATHER MILD AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. THURSDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA.
WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STILL TO THE WEST. THE DRY SOUTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 80S.
324 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE ONLY SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES. THE ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ACROSS ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THU PM. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST.
WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA TOWARDS SUNSET WHEN THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO LOOSEN AND WINDS DECOUPLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD. LARGE UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY TODAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD BELOW NORMAL WITH THERMAL TROF STARTING OUT ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WE WILL HAVE LITTLE CONCERN AS IOWA WILL BE IN BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE WEST AND THE DEPARTING LARGE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
158 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST BY THIS EVENING AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
ALOFT: THE FLOW REMAINS SPLIT FLOW OVER N AMERICA WITH A TROF OVER THE E AND A SEMI-PROGRESSIVE RIDGE OVER THE W. A CUT-OFF LOW WAS UNDERNEATH OVER SRN CA WITH CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE SE USA. THE AXIS OF THIS HIGH WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT E OF THE REGION THRU TONIGHT.
AND MUST OBVIOUSLY BE ELEVATED CONSIDERING THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. JUST AIRMASS COMVECTION EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH AS SURFACE WARM FRONT FINALLY MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.
THIS IS AT LEAST PARTLY DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AND WARMER AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS WHICH MANAGED TO FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH THE FRONT. THE GULF COAST SHOULD HAVE THE LOWEST RAIN COVERAGE THURSDAY DUE TO THE SW/W STEERING FLOW.
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER TEXAS NEXT 24 HOURS AS MID LEVEL TROUGH/LOW DEEPENS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THEN BEGINS TO EJECT. RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT EAST BUT IN THE MEAN TIME THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHWEST U. SOUTHEAST SFC INFLOW SUPPORTED BY BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST U. AND ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE EJECTING TROUGH WILL TAP INTO THE LOWER LVL ENERGY TO HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND NORTH. HIGH TEMPS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 90S WEST OF THE COASTAL AREAS.
THOUGH NOT QUITE AS COLD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND THE LOWER JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME MID CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. ON THURSDAY THE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY PARKED OVER SE KERN COUNTY IS PROVIDING CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. THE LOW IS SLOWLY FILLING AS A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER HAS DEVELOPED WEST OF OF PT. THIS DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WILL ACTUALLY DRAW THE LOW OVER KERN COUNTY TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE MAIN LOW SLIDES WELL SOUTH INTO BAJA BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT DROPPING OUT OF THE GULF OF AK IS FALLING APART AS IT HAS NOW MADE ITS WAY INTO NRN CA.
OUR CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT HAS BROUGHT LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE MID- STATE THIS MORNING IS FINALLY SAGGING INTO THE STATE.
A WEAK RIDGE IS LOCATED ABOVE THE ROCKIES WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTERING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH HIGHS TOMORROW RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 70S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.
WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE TEMPS WELL BELOW FREEZING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. IT APPEARS THE LOWEST RH/STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT COINCIDE AS EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE LOWEST RH BUT VERY LIGHT WINDS. HI RES MODELS SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
116 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST.
HEIGHTS WILL START TO INCREASE ON THU AS THE TROF OFF THE WEST COAST MOVES INLAND. TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONT TO WARM AND WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AS THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL CA. THE SHRA AND ISO TSRA WILL CONT INTO FRI MRNG BEFORE THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHIFTS EWD AND THE LOW LEVEL JET. AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH KS/MO ON FRI NIGHT WE WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONT OVERNIGHT.
DEW POINTS ARE ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE GULF COAST. TONIGHT WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH NO REAL ENERGY TO SPEAK OF ALOFT.
WITH WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT HAS SLOWLY BEGUN THE PROCESS OF MOVING EAST WITH RADAR SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FEATURE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO. HOWEVER OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT CLEARING SKIES FROM THE WEST WITH WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS FLATTENS SOMEWHAT LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE IN JACKSON COUNTY THAT ARE HUGGING THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. SOME CUMULUS HAS BUBBLED UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND LAKE COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND WE EXPECT THESE SEASONAL NORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AHEAD OF A QUICK MOVING FRONT DUE IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ALONG THE COAST, THE CASCADES, AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EVEN THESE AMOUNTS ARE ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS.
LAST VESTIGES OF COLD UPPER TROUGH EXITING TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. WITH MOST AREAS BELOW FREEZING. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF MN/WI AND OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN PLACE, TONIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.
OVERALL PATTERN SHOWS WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUT THIS DISTURBANCE MAY BE FLATTENING OUT THE RIDGE A BIT TODAY. SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AND LOW LEVEL TURNING OF THE WINDS WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LOW LEVEL ROTATION IN STORMS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL BEND. THIS HIGHLIGHTS THE SEVERE THREAT FOR THE NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY MADISON. THURSDAY LOOKS A BIT MORE QUIET AS MODELS DO AMPLIFY RIDGING OVER THE REGION ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS.
139 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. REPORTS OF 1-3" WERE COMMON ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL ERODE THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL INVERSIONS AND STEEPEN LAPSE RATES. FREEZING LEVEL IS ONLY ABOUT 3-4KFT THIS AFTERNOON SO ADDITIONAL GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS.
127 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015 /ISSUED 335 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015/ SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER WITH ITS CENTER ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE.
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BUT DEWPOINTS STILL ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S SO CAPE VALUES STILL ONLY UPWARDS OF 800J/KG. SURFACE TROF STILL OVER EASTERN PLAINS WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER FAR PLAINS.
544 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS THIS EVENING ONLY SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND IN THE RIDGES. ANOTHER COOL AND CLOUDY DAY THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGING LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND RIDGES.
/ISSUED 414 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2015/ An upper trough currently to our west will bring a variety of weather concerns over the next several days including thunderstorms and high fire danger. Meanwhile, the above disturbance will help initiate thunderstorms along a southward moving cold front over the TX Panhandle later today.
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.
Temperatures will cool behind a cold front this afternoon, however it is not anticipated to be a significant change.
153 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015 A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. I WILL BUMP THE HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID 40S. UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC REGION. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SPREADING RAIN SHOWERS INVOF THE FRONT. THE NAM SHOWS NO BIG CHANGES IN STORE FOR NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA THROUGH THURSDAY AT LEAST WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND THE CLOSED STAGNANT UPPER LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST.
A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF I-40 WHILE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING STORM COMPLEX WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/NW TEXAS. FOR THE MOST PART WE REMAIN IN THE COOL SIDE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY THURSDAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT LIMITING ANY PRECIP CHANCES. ADDITIONAL STORMS LIKELY TO FORM ACROSS TEXAS THURSDAY EVENING WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTH ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN OK THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER AND MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
259 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. REPORTS OF 1-3" WERE COMMON ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL ERODE THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL INVERSIONS AND STEEPEN LAPSE RATES. FREEZING LEVEL IS ONLY ABOUT 3-4KFT THIS AFTERNOON SO ADDITIONAL GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS.
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT. A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AND DEFLECT MOST OF THE ENERGY OVER NORTHERN MONTANA.
WITH WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT HAS SLOWLY BEGUN THE PROCESS OF MOVING EAST WITH RADAR SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FEATURE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO. HOWEVER OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT CLEARING SKIES FROM THE WEST WITH WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
1203 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2015 For today, cooler temperatures are expected in the wake of a cold front which passed through the region late last evening.
GENERAL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO MOVES SLOWLY EAST.
1216 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG WITH EARLIER 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA REMAINS OVER ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. LATEST MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A COLD FRONT ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER. THIS COULD ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S AGAIN WITH DRY/COOL AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE.
141 PM PDT WED APR 22 2015 PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND COOLER WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK DUE TO A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS N FL AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY INTO NW TX. BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND NORTHWEST TX LOW, A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS STEADILY INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS TX AND LA. ALOFT, A TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS BECOMING MORE ACTIVE FROM BAJA TO S TX AND THE NORTHERN GULF.
1205 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015 UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING PLACES OUR REGION IN PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT DRYING CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AXIS ADVANCES SOUTH. EXTENT OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS TO THE EAST TODAY AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD LINE /CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN MN/ MOVES SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST. THE PERIOD BEGINS QUITE PLEASANT WITH SURFACE RIDGING STRETCHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
COLD AIR WILL BRING FREEZING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH TO BRING WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH GROUND OF THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA COULD PICK UP SOME MORE LIGHT ACCUMS OVERNIGHT OTHERWISE NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.