Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
420 AM MST Tue Jan 16 2018 Overnight water vapor imagery placed the center of the central CONUS upper trough over the western Great Lakes, with a upper ridge axis from the Great Basin to the northern Rockies. Deep northerly flow aloft on the backside of the trough was funneling very cold air into the CWFA, with ambient temperatures in the single digits and teens below zero. Models/ensembles are in good agreement with the dominance of the a large scale ridge pattern through the short term.
531 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 Low pressure will bring relatively light snow to the region today followed by bitter cold on Wednesday. Warmer temperatures and dry conditions expected the remainder of the week. with 2 to 3" expected for the majority of the forecast area and locally higher amounts in the ridges. No changes were made to existing winter weather advisories for the ridges where upslope enhancement will result in higher amounts. but elsewhere the longer term duration of light accumulating snow should lessen impacts and treated roads should fare well given the relatively warmer temperatures.
413 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018 Arctic cold front is now moving through the coastal waters. Behind the front, temperatures have been falling with below freezing readings now across much of our northern counties and likely creating hazardous driving conditions where mixed precipitation is falling and any accumulations are occuring. South of the current mixed precipitation locations and possibly all the way to the coast, areas of rain will transition over to mixed precipitation as temperatures fall below freezing. Precipitation will come to an end from north to south beginning this afternoon and continuing to the coast tonight as strong high pressure helps to bring much drier air into the area.
Temperatures will warm to the mid and upper 30s for high temperatures today, even warmer (lower 40s) in the Camas prairie in Idaho. This system will weaken considerably as it moves into the ridge of high pressure. A ridge will pop right back up over the NR Wednesday with a mix of sun and clouds and continued moderate temps in the mid 30s across the valleys.
The strong cold front has moved through all of our area with a corresponding rapid drop in temperatures. Although patches of rain continued where temperatures were above freezing, a mix of freezing rain, sleet, and eventually snow has developed where temperatures have dropped below freezing. Forecast soundings show as the sub-freezing layer deepens, a mix of sleet and snow is expected north with freezing rain and sleet south. Temperatures will not show much trend today remaining below freezing across most areas. Temperatures should rise above freezing across our area with a great deal of sun on Wednesday.
534 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018 The center of an Arctic high pressure over the western Dakotas is producing bitter cold temperatures this morning with readings in the teens below to 25 degrees below zero. The Arctic high pressure should push south of the CWA by this afternoon with southerly winds developing. The southerly winds will continue ushering in warmer temps tonight with lows only in the single digits on either side of zero.
942 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 An upper level low will slowly track across the lower Great Lakes today into tomorrow. High pressure will build south of the region mid to late week. Upper low will move east across the lower Great Lakes with the trailing positively tilted trough translating across the forecast area through the period. Still looks like readings should be able to get into the lower 20s on Wednesday.
Short wave trough and surface cold front in central Oregon will weaken as it moves east today but will still be strong enough to produce light pcpn in all of eastern Oregon this morning. Clearing from west to east tonight, and dry Wednesday, except a slight chance of rain and snow in the higher terrain of Baker County Wednesday. Will continue a slight chance of light freezing rain this morning in central Malheur County, OR, and the sw corner of Owyhee County, ID.
High pressure will keep the area generally dry through Wednesday, but a weak disturbance may bring some showers to the mountains tonight.
429 AM MST Tue Jan 16 2018 High pressure will keep the area generally dry through Wednesday, but a weak disturbance may bring some showers to the mountains tonight.
Pattern Forecast: By Wednesday morning, deep upper level trough axis is expected to be centered across the eastern Great Lakes with heights gradually rising across northern Michigan. Primary features to note initially focus on an area of low pressure across central/ northern Ontario with a warm front crossing the area locally during the day Wednesday. Limited synoptic support/moisture will lend itself to little in the way of sensible weather aside from increasingly gusty winds as the gradient tightens between the aforementioned low pressure and strong high pressure centered across the lower Mississippi Valley.
422 AM MST Tue Jan 16 2018 Upper ridging will be the predominant upper level feature through the short term period, resulting in dry conditions and warming temperatures.
734 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 Low pressure will bring relatively light snow to the region today followed by bitter cold on Wednesday. Warmer temperatures and dry conditions expected the remainder of the week. The fluffy nature of this snow will allow some to see the higher end of those ranges, but with a long duration event (started midday yesterday), 12hr Advisory criteria will likely not be met outside of current Advisories, thus no changes to headlines were made.
327 AM MST Tue Jan 16 2018 Overnight water vapor imagery placed the center of the central CONUS upper trough over the western Great Lakes, with a upper ridge axis from the Great Basin to the northern Rockies. Deep northerly flow aloft on the backside of the trough was funneling very cold air into the CWFA, with ambient temperatures in the single digits and teens below zero. Models/ensembles are in good agreement with the dominance of the a large scale ridge pattern through the short term.
912 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 Strong cold front across the southeast U. will continue to push gradually southeast today, weakening ridge out ahead of it. The onshore flow should also allow for some additional warming to occur today, with cooler shelf waters keeping max temperatures along the Volusia coast limited to the mid 60s, while highs farther south and inland are forecast to rise into the upper 60s and low 70s.
538 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018 /12Z TAFS/ A couple more quick bands of light freezing rain will move across the JCT are for the next few hours this morning. Otherwise, dry air in the low levels is keeping ceilings VFR across the area. Still, we are seeing some freezing rain early this morning continuing from near Sonora through Junction and Mason. We are looking at lows in the lower to mid teens areawide.
346 AM PST Tue Jan 16 2018 A cold front will move southward across the area could bring a chance of light precipitation mainly from Fresno county northward.
330 AM PST Tue Jan 16 2018 Precipitation is ongoing this morning as this cold front pushes through the region.
Still, we are seeing some freezing rain early this morning continuing from near Sonora through Junction and Mason. We are looking at lows in the lower to mid teens areawide.
Gusty winds and several degrees of cooling today from Tucson westward with much cooler temperatures east of Tucson.
Cold front moves into Levy County late tonight. A cold front will move across the waters on Wednesday with small craft advisory conditions likely behind the front, Seas will also build and will become hazardous to small craft later Wednesday and Wednesday night.
351 AM PST Tue Jan 16 2018 Updated AVIATION Section Precipitation is ongoing this morning as this cold front pushes through the region.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 36 11 27 16 / 80 30 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 34 10 23 12 / 90 40 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 33 9 25 12 / 90 40 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 40 12 21 11 / 80 70 10 0 NC.
946 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 Temperatures today are expected to rise into the low 60s and then dropping into the 40s overnight. Winds will be predominantly out of the north and northeast today with high pressure to our north. No matter what happens with freezing/frozen precipitation it is going to be a raw and cold morning in that area. The pressure gradient will weaken today as high pressure builds into the region but seas will be slow to subside over the offshore portion. For that reason A strong cold front will push through the Atlantic waters on Wednesday, with Small Craft Advisory conditions developing once again. High pressure will then build into the region from the west through the end of the week. High pressure is then forecast to build east of the region late in the weekend.
High pressure will remain over the Great Basin today through Wednesday. A weak system will move through the high late today through tonight.
High amplitude pattern persists over the CONUS with a deep L/W trough over the eastern half of North America. and a sharp U/L ridge over the U. A strong U/L disturbance will dig down the backside of the U/L trough today through Wednesday tracking from the mid Missouri valley to the mid Atlantic coast. A cold front, associated with the U/L disturbance approaching the mid Atlantic coast, will push across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida on Wednesday with much colder drier air advecting across the region on gusty north to northwest winds. This will occur as a powerful cold front surges across the region as a deep trough moves off the Carolinas coast.
Ridging builds back in for midweek before a more active weather pattern sets up for the end of the week.
1055 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 High pressure is just east of the Appalachians with an axis reaching from eastern Canada to the northern Gulf Coast. This is a testament to the amount of decoupling provided by the cooler shelf waters during northeast flow, sans CAA. Highs will reach the lower to mid 70s and rain chances remain slight. From synopsis, a ridge of high pressure, from Eastern Canada to the northern Gulf Coast, will slide eastward into the western north Atlantic this afternoon.
318 AM MST Tue Jan 16 2018 A transitory ridge will ride over the area today and tonight. A weakening upper trough will move into NE Utah late tonight then move over northwest Colorado Wednesday. Only mid and high cloud will accompany this feature, with the slightest chance of flurries over the higher peaks north of Interstate 70. A ridge will continue building over the Great Basin Wednesday night and sliding east.
702 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 An upper level low will slowly track across the lower Great Lakes today into tomorrow. High pressure will build south of the region mid to late week. Upper low will move east across the lower Great Lakes with the trailing positively tilted trough translating across the forecast area through the period. Still looks like readings should be able to get into the lower 20s on Wednesday.
528 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018 Arctic high pressure was located over the northern and central plains at 08Z while an upper trough axis stretched from the lower Great Lakes into southwest Kansas.
Adverse aviation conditions are likely today as the low clouds and light precipitation persists. A slight improvement may occur tonight as the inverted trough moves inland to the west. Temperature-wise, the official observations recorded high temperatures in the low 60s at BRO, HRL, and MFE with overcast skies and continued cold air advection in the wake of the recent cold front. After a dip of only a couple of degrees tonight, temperatures on Saturday should be several degrees warmer as an onshore flow and decreased cloudiness results from the inland progression of the trough.
1038 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2017 High pressure will bring an unseasonably cold airmass to the region today and tonight.
Cooler air this evening may lower snow levels to valley floors, with any remaining light showers ending from west to east overnight.
Low will move across southern Saskatchewan today pulling warm front across eastern Montana. Westerly downslope flow and mixing with the front should help push the temperatures above the freezing mark for most of the area today. Canadian high pressure slides back into the region behind the Alberta low tonight.
/issued 326 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2017/ The expected cold front is currently moving through Central Florida. The front stays put for several days, as high pressure builds over the great lakes region and slowly shifts over New England.
641 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2017 Light lake effect snow showers will gradually diminish through the day as high pressure builds into the area.
There is a slight uptick in the ridge of high pressure over Mexico this weekend.
921 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2017 Dry Canadian high pressure will build across the region through Saturday.
910 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2017 High pressure is settling in from the north as a cold front exits west central FL this morning. High pressure is settling behind a south bound cold front.
641 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2017 High pressure will bring an unseasonably cold airmass to the region today and tonight.
209 AM PST Fri Nov 10 2017 A quick moving low pressure system will provide breezy winds today with a chance for light rain and high elevation snowfall mainly north of Interstate 80.
High pressure aloft will return late in the weekend.
645 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2017 Dry Canadian high pressure will build across the region through Saturday.
Web cams do show some snow drifting across area roads where there is snow cover, which is mainly north of the highway 200 corridor. As the main upper low propagates eastward tonight, light snow chances continue near the International border. Saturday night high pressure begins to build over the Northern Plains.
545 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2017 Yesterdays cold front has dropped south of the Ohio River Valley this morning with plenty of cold air in the Midwest underneath the building ridge. A swath of mid/high clouds moving through the region has limited the cooling somewhat this morning, but even so, temps have dropped into the low 20s/upper teens.
Low pressure is moving inland with an associated frontal band of light to moderate precipitation oriented southwest to northeast across the far northern California coast across western Siskiyou County to the Cascades and northern Klamath County. As it does so, the next disturbance (a warm front) will reach the coast this afternoon then lift north out of the area this evening. The upper level pattern will remain progressive but a ridge will briefly build across the west late tonight into Saturday. But, clouds will fill back in early in the evening ahead of a cold front. The ridge will build over the Rockies Saturday night and slow down the advance of the front.
646 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2017 A strong cold front drops southeast across the region today. Behind the front, cold high pressure should bring much colder and drier weather into the upcoming weekend. Main frontal boundary with sub-freezing temps still up across southeast Ohio at this time but should be making a strong push over the next 6 hours dropping the far west to near freezing by 12z, but likely a few degrees warmer then earlier forecast. Piedmont and foothill counties under the freeze watch were converted to a freeze warning which seems like a slam dunk given the range of guidance on lows for Saturday morning which are all in the low to mid-20s within the warned area.
543 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2017 Main impactful weather concerns in the short-term are on chances for a light wintry mix of rain/freezing rain/snow/and brief sleet late Friday night into Saturday. Cold high pressure will slide east of the region this afternoon into tonight. This means any precipitation that would fall over these areas would probably be light freezing rain. Will have to keep a very close eye on the potential for light freezing rain after midnight. Forecast soundings suggest a loss of ice aloft and this would cause the light snow to switch over to light freezing rain or drizzle at times.
Noticeably cooler high temps in the lower 70s along the Volusia coast, mid 70s metro Orlando and lower 80s Treasure coast.
Abundant moisture in the low levels from yesterday's precipitation is combining with some breaks in the clouds to cause the formation of fog, becoming locally dense. The I-90 corridor from Saint Regis to Bearmouth and the Highway 200 corridor from the Idaho state line to roughly Plains seem to be the areas where the fog has become the most widespread. Another thing to keep in mind is that many roads have become icy this morning as air temperatures have dropped below freezing. Black ice can be difficult to detect and can occur in patches, favoring bridges, overpasses and spots that are shaded during the day. A drying trend will begin Saturday as weak high pressure begins to build over the region.
913 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2017 Dry Canadian high pressure will build across the region through Saturday.
933 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2017 Arctic high pressure will build into the area today through Saturday night, bringing the first freeze of the season.
Large high pressure system located over the Western Great Lakes is forecast to track slowly eastward through this evening. Cold front associated with this latest cool airmass located over south central FL. with cooler and moist conditions below 2500 ft per latest JAX sounding. generally north of the 850 mb trough. For updates, have tweaked hourly temps and highs for today due to some lingering of the low clouds and when sun peeks out will be fairly short in duration before sunset.
/Issued 356 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2017/ Backdoor cold front pushing through northeast OK and northwest AR with slightly drier low level airmass evident north of I-40. Moisture will begin to increase again later tonight and especially Saturday likely resulting in widespread low clouds expanding during the day which will lead to slightly cooler afternoon temps.
319 AM MST Fri Nov 10 2017 The early season cold snap breaks overnight as warmer air advances across North-central Montana. Areas of light snow or rain remain possible overnight, with a slight chance for sleet or freezing rain.
724 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2017 A strong cold front drops southeast across the region today. Behind the front, cold high pressure should bring much colder and drier weather into the upcoming weekend. Main frontal boundary with sub-freezing temps still up across southeast Ohio at this time but should be making a strong push over the next 6 hours dropping the far west to near freezing by 12z, but likely a few degrees warmer then earlier forecast. Piedmont and foothill counties under the freeze watch were converted to a freeze warning which seems like a slam dunk given the range of guidance on lows for Saturday morning which are all in the low to mid-20s within the warned area.
VFR conditions will return by mid morning as cooler, drier air moves in. In the upper levels nearly zonal flow is over the Southeast as a trough moves over the Atlantic. Highs will be in the lower 70s and upper 60s.
620 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2017 Arctic high pressure will build into the area today through Saturday night, bringing the first freeze of the season.
High pressure surface and aloft over the western Atlantic will gradually build over the Florida peninsula over the next couple of days with increasing large scale subsidence over the region.
507 PM MDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Scattered rain and snow showers will dissipate overnight, as high pressure builds over the region.
Scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible by late afternoon along approaching cold front, potentially impacting NE OK TAF sites after 22Z.
Skies to be clear for quite some time, as upstream cloud band associated with an eastward advancing and decaying cold front is not as robust as originally thought. Surface ridging. resulting in sunny skies and warmer than normal October temps. A weak cold front is poised to our west over the Upper Mississippi Valley. Upstream cold front to our west will lean into our CWA overnight into Monday. Temps will be a bit cooler tomorrow thanks to increasing clouds and some cooler air accompanying the front. High temps Monday afternoon will range from the lower 60s in Eastern Upper Michigan to the mid 70s near Saginaw Bay. Pattern Forecast: A mid level wave carving out troughing across the Intermountain West this afternoon will be the primary feature of note through midweek as it closes off and ejects into the central plains Monday night.
1035 PM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017 A trough of low pressure will dig across the Rockies tonight into Monday. This will keep cooler northerly flow in place across the area through this time.
/issued 357 PM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017/ After a foggy start at many locations this morning, west to southwest winds along with weak ridging aloft has resulted in unseasonably warm temperatures across the area. An approaching weak mid/upper trof over Central TX/Northern Mexico this afternoon is progged to continue NEWD and translate through the Sabine River Valley toward the Mid MS River Valley tomorrow, which along with diurnal instability and a lingering moisture pool over the NW Gulf into LA will help initiate isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon east of the Sabine River. A brief shot of relatively drier/cooler air will filter in behind the front on WED, with moderating temperatures expected for late week and into the weekend as mid/upper level ridging retrogrades WWD and amplifies over the area.
The highest accumulations occurred over rural NE Osceola county where Doppler radar estimated up to 3.
Proton Previous Discussion: Upper trough deepens into the southern Rockies tonight where it cuts off and provides Colorado with a Winter Storm. Zonal flow then ensues across the Northern Rockies Monday with a warm front moving east across Montana. With the warm front approaching the area Monday, readings will rebound back up into the 50s, except some upper 40s in the northern and eastern zones. It did seem to diminish the chance of showers late in the week with the next upper trough that moves through.
Continue the high wind warning for the mountains as well as the wind advisory for the northeast TN mountains through 4 am. Wind gusts have really decreased this evening with the highest gusts currently at Chattanooga around 17 knots. Appears that most lower elevations will be dry by sunrise with only the higher elevations still getting some light rain. Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 83 70 82 / 60 50 70 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 84 68 83 / 100 50 70 70 Oak Ridge, TN 68 84 69 81 / 100 50 50 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 83 65 78 / 100 70 40 70 TN.
Water Vapor/Infrared satellite trends indicate drier air aloft filtering into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Surface dewpoints remain quite high in the lower 70s at many locations with Savannah and Paris already indicating reduced visibilities due to the formation of fog.
Have updated to extend the High Surf Advisory through the remainder of the night based on long period onshore swell observed at marine buoys. Temps will be very muggy tonight, in the low to mid 70s inland to upper 70s along the coast. Clouds and rain will keep highs on Monday from climbing above the low to mid 80s.
/BB/ Tonight through Monday: Mid afternoon surface analysis had the low associated with Tropical Depression Nate over northern Alabama. Light rain associated with this low was still being observed over portions of east Mississippi as far south as Meridian. This activity is expected to end by this evening as the low tracks farther to the north northeast. Monday Morning lows will be well above normal again, generally in the lower 70s.
1029 PM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017 As remnants of Nate move through the Tennessee Valley and into the Lower Great Lakes by Monday morning, cloud cover will increase this evening. Low temperatures overnight will range from the middle to upper 50s north of Route 24 and into the lower 60s south. Overnight lows will remain mild with most locations staying around 60F (cooler to the NW with less moisture/clouds).
Also, a cold front will move south of the I-20 corridor by 10/00Z.