Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
140 AM EDT Wed May 11 2022 Cool northerly winds will continue through Thursday as low pressure remains off the East Coast.
329 AM EDT Wed May 11 2022 Our early taste of summertime temperatures (and humidity!) continues today as the strong upper ridge is oriented roughly from Texarkana to Chicago.
The forecast area remains between an upper level ridge over the Mississippi Valley and an upper low over the West Coast.
Water Vapor imagery and upper air data show the unseasonably strong H5 ridge from the Great Lakes to a center over northern AR, south to the west Gulf Coast. Lower dew point air is forecast to push westward across the CWFA, as a large scale upper low over the SE U. For SEMO, the higher dew point air will persist, with another afternoon of mid 90s heat index values likely. Broad westerly flow over the CONUS west of the aforementioned upper low will work to weaken the ridge with time.
Ridging influences aloft that are slowly retrograding westward and establishment of southerly sfc/low level atmospheric flow should usher in enough moisture to support sct/bkn low to mid level cloudiness generally developing after 11/11Z across mid state region with diurnal heating influences keeping it around region until a general wane 12/00Z-12/02Z.
Winds have decreased across the area this evening with lighter southwest breezes remaining along the high terrain.
An upper low off the E coast will edge southwestward but the bulk of the moisture with this system should stay to our east through tonight. Will highlight the low RH values in the FWF.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) Upper low over CA this morning will wobble across NV today then lift across UT tonight as the ridge remains centered over E TX. On Thursday the low will track across WY squeezing the ridge but not dislodging it from TX. Lows tonight in the 60s then a bit warmer Thursday as mid and upper 90s become more common.
(Today) A "mature" Omega-style block was in place across the greater lower-48, with upper lows in place over northern California and east of the Carolinas. An upper ridge extending from SE Texas to the southern Great Lakes constituted the block's "middle" high. This blocking should begin breaking down over the next few days, as the east coast low begins moving further to the SW and ridging to our west weakens slightly. A temperature and dewpoint gradient with warmer/more moist west to drier and a bit cooler east continued thanks to a cold northern flow rounding the western side of the east coast low.
With upper ridging slightly stronger today, showers and thunderstorms are not expected again this afternoon and tonight. A lee trough along the Texas/New Mexico state line, however will bring breezy south winds to the region, and warm conditions will continue, with highs in the mid/upper 90s.
1212 AM CDT Wed May 11 2022 (The rest of tonight) Sfc winds becoming a little more easterly will advect slightly drier air into the region tonight and into tomorrow, which will result in overnight low temperatures a little cooler than what has been observed the last few nights.
Also, the upper level ridge will keep any showers from forming. By Thursday, the high pressure system at the surface will be centered over the northwest Gulf. This will likely allow air temperatures to be even a couple of degrees warmer with most daily records in jeopardy. Also by late Thursday, an upper level trough will be pushing west into the southeast US. This means that convection developing with the trough to the east and northeast of the forecast area will have a slight chance of moving past the Atchafalaya Basin and into the far eastern portion of the forecast area late in the afternoon and early evening before daytime heating ends.
130 AM EDT Wed May 11 2022 High pressure will maintain fair weather through the rest of the week with a day to day warming trend.
The low clouds will lift and scatter before midday allowing VFR conditions to once again prevail areawide. /issued 926 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022/ Sfc ridging remains anchored well east of our region this evening with the tighter sfc pressure gradient well to our west. Hourly temperatures are running some 1 to 3 degrees cooler at 9 pm compared to this time last night and this trend should allow for slightly cooler temperatures than what we saw this morning.
High pressure persists across much of the southeastern CONUS as the low pressure system off the Mid-Atlantic Coast slowly retrogrades westward, closer to the Southern Atlantic Coastline. For us in Central AL, the high pressure just to our west will continue to be the main influencer for our weather, leading to large-scale subsidence and mostly clear skies through the day today. There could be some increasing clouds late tonight through early Thursday as the upper low inches closer to us to our east, which could lead to some isolated showers in the far western counties during the day on Thursday, but overall, we're not expecting any significant rain chances today or tomorrow. Highs will range from the low to mid 80s in the eastern counties to the low 90s in the western counties both today and tomorrow.
08 Previous short-term discussion: /Updated at 1146 AM CDT Tue May 10 2022/ The forecast area remains under the influence of mid-level ridging centered over Southeast Texas. An Omega pattern has developed aloft with an upper low over the Pacific Northwest and another upper low off the North Carolina coastline. Moisture in the lower levels will continue to support clouds west and northwest but will not support any precipitation.
225 AM MDT Wed May 11 2022 Water vapor shows broad upper trof over the western CONUS with upper low over CA/NV. At the surface, high is centered over the Upper Midwest with inverted trof extending through northeast WY into southwest ND. Large scale ascent will begin to increase later today, and especially tonight as upper low shifts into UT and begins to tilt negatively. Negatively tilted upper low will lift northeast across WY on Thursday and into eastern MT and western ND Thursday night. Showers and storms will remain likely from northeast WY into northwest SD in closer proximity to the upper low, especially during the afternoon/early evening hours, with generally less chances further southeast.
Highs are expected to get in record territory; peaking in the lower 90s across areas south of Highway 30 while to the north along Highway 20 upper 80s are seen. Forecast dew points in the low to mid 70s will result in heat indices in the 90s to just over 100 at times. Thursday Continued hot and humid weather is expected with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and peak heat indices in the lower to upper 90s. The 500mb ridge axis (up to 592 dam) will shift slightly to our east, extending from the Southern Great lakes into the Ohio Valley, but remain close enough to keep the atmosphere capped.
330 AM EDT Wed May 11 2022 Rather quiet fcst period continues with dry conditions from persistent subsidence under ridge west of the upper cutoff low, that will still be centered off the Southeast coast today. The aforementioned cutoff low begins to retrograde westward for Thursday under the large scale blocking pattern aloft, which should increase some moisture and cloud coverage in the eastern CWA. Temps today should reach near to slightly above normal with many areas in the low to mid 80s, then some eastern portions limited and cooler in the mid 70s to low 80s for Thursday given influence of approaching low and increased moisture/clouds.
Tonight through very early Thursday morning The low pressure system slowly working its way down California and its accompanying trough continue to bring unsettled weather to Nevada. The main line of shower activity should move southward to stretch across Lander, Eureka, and ELko counties tomorrow as the trough digs and moves on an eastward track. The progression of the trough also supports breezy conditions tomorrow with strongest winds in northwestern Nye county/Tonopah.
1049 PM MDT Tue May 10 2022 Fast southwesterly flow aloft will continue over the forecast area until an upper low, currently dropping southward along the California cost, moves northeastward across the forecast area on Thursday. Ascent will increase as the upper low approaches on Wednesday and Thursday. Mid-level moisture will increase ahead of the approaching upper trough and surface CAPE will rise to 500-1000J/KG by Wednesday afternoon. There will be a wide spread in the high temperatures on Thursday, from near 60F over northeastern Wyoming and northwestern South Dakota to near 90F over south central South Dakota.
The upper ridge axis is west of the Mississippi River with our area becoming sandwiched between the upper ridge and the slowly retrograding upper low off of the southeast Atlantic coast. Models have been showing a weak disturbance sliding along the eastern influences of the upper ridge today which could spark a couple isolated showers and storms during the daylight hours. With the strongest ridging to the west of the area and decent amount of cloud cover today, I went a couple degrees below NBM guidance for highs.
238 AM MDT Wed May 11 2022 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: As of 3AM a ridge runs north from Mexico through eastern Colorado and then bends northeast into the Upper Mississippi Valley. To the west a large closed low sets off the coast of the British Columbia. There appears to be some weak ridging in the flow over southern Wyoming with a disturbance driving behind it over southern Nevada. Weak ridging should move through in the afternoon and early evening which will clear most of the shower activity. This will place northeast Montana under the northwest quadrant of the low with a high chance for rain and isolated thunderstorms especially Thursday.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 61 86 61 82 / 10 0 0 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 56 83 57 81 / 10 0 0 0 40 Oak Ridge, TN 86 57 84 58 81 / 10 0 0 0 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 51 80 57 77 / 0 0 0 10 60.
1116 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022 An upper trough will continue to slowly dive south from the Pacific Northwest south through California today and tonight before starting east tomorrow afternoon. Tomorrow through tomorrow night, the upper trough will move into the Central Great Basin, before continuing onto the Central Rockies Thursday afternoon and Northern Plains by Thursday night. By time the upper trough moves into the northern Plains, a trailing cold front will extend south from the Northern Plains sfc into the Central KS vicinity during peak heating.
Yet another chilly morning with temperatures hovering around freezing is occurring this morning, though we should begin to see some improvement in overnight lows starting tonight.
Where surface dewpoints can increase into the low 70s destabilization of the lower atmosphere is more likely especially south and east of this boundary.
410 AM EDT Wed May 11 2022 High pressure will maintain fair weather through the rest of the week with a day to day warming trend.
Mid level ridging keeps dry conditions and above normal temps in place.
347 AM PDT Wed May 11 2022 A low pressure system moving inland from California into the Great Basin today will bring stronger onshore flow with a few degrees of cooling and with gusty west winds strongest in the afternoon.
Drier on Thursday with temperatures trending warmer through the weekend. Trough energy centers over NV today, resulting in well below normal temperatures as most valley locations only warm into the upper 40s to mid 50s. Trough energy exits NV into Utah tonight with showers ending over most of northern and central NV, the possible exception will be mountains of northern Humboldt and Elko Counties where a few more showers will be possible into Thursday. Temperatures also begin to trend warmer on Thursday, with afternoon highs in the 60s.
The western trough/low of this pattern is predicted to become progressive Thursday with associated synoptic scale lift across portions of the Southwestern CONUS and SRN Plains, and thus north of the CWA.
631 AM EDT Wed May 11 2022 High pressure will maintain fair weather through the rest of the week with a day to day warming trend.
An upper level ridge almost over our area continues to dominate the Mid- South. Model continue to show a weak disturbance sliding along the eastern side of our upper ridge today, which could initiate convection over the Tennessee River.
Temperatures range from the upper 60s to the lower 70s, which is rather impressive given the SSTs of 80 to 85 degrees. Water vapor imagery highlights a retrograding cyclone over the western North Atlantic which will nestle into northern Florida and the southeastern United States Thursday night. Breezes will collapse Thursday and Thursday night as the barbell-shaped SFC and low level reflection of the cyclone spreads west into Florida and the Keys.
637 AM CDT Wed May 11 2022 (Today) A "mature" Omega-style block was in place across the greater lower-48, with upper lows in place over northern California and east of the Carolinas. An upper ridge extending from SE Texas to the southern Great Lakes constituted the block's "middle" high. This blocking should begin breaking down over the next few days, as the east coast low begins moving further to the SW and ridging to our west weakens slightly. A temperature and dewpoint gradient with warmer/more moist west to drier and a bit cooler east continued thanks to a cold northern flow rounding the western side of the east coast low.
and Thursday A very shallow cold front was sinking south across the area at 3 O'Clock this morning. A 500mb trough is forecast to lift northeast across northwest Wisconsin tonight, and produce elevated showers and thunderstorms that should move east across the area late tonight while weakening. Any shower or thunderstorm activity going on Thursday morning should dissipate as the upper trough exits and a temperature inversion sets up to inhibit surface based convection during the day.
Scattered snow showers in the Sierra and western Nevada mainly south of Highway 50 will decrease by tonight with drier and much warmer conditions returning for late week into the weekend. The cold upper low will continue to drop south for a bit this morning before turning east across southern NV this afternoon. Surface temperatures remain above freezing, so impacts are mainly from lowered visibility.
405 AM PDT Wed May 11 2022 Dry and warmer weather beginning today. Upper low that has brought unsettled weather to Northern California early this week will shift east into Nevada today and then rapidly eject northeast towards the Northern Plains Thursday.
/issued 501 AM CDT Wed May 11 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): Elongated 500mb ridge axis extending from Texas to the Great Lakes will continue to provide subsidence over the area through the period. At the surface, high pressure across the southeast U. extending into the northern Gulf of Mexico will maintain an onshore flow across the lower Texas coast today into Thursday. Lows tonight will fall into the upper 60s to the lower 70s as sightly drier filters into the region.
The lower humidity will also make for a more comfortable day for any outdoor activities. High pressure will build into the area from the north keeping rain- free conditions over the eastern gulf waters through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Interaction between this high pressure and an area of low pressure off the Carolina coastline is producing gusty NNE winds through early Thursday morning.
A brief period of ridging will trend temperatures closer, but slightly below normal for this time of year today, Wednesday, May 11. However, dew points have not yet dropped below freezing in the Illinois and Applegate Valley areas. As a brief period of ridging builds in today, afternoon temperatures will trend a few degrees below normal for this time of year in west side valleys; elsewhere the cold airmass will limit the 24hr warming trend to about 10 degrees below normal. Temperatures west of the Cascades should reach into the low 60s, while east of the Cascades temperatures should be in the low-to-mid 50s.
406 AM CDT Wed May 11 2022 The Panhandles will be between an upper level trough digging through the Great Basin and a ridge of high pressure that stretched from eastern Texas to southern Michigan. The southwest flow aloft over the Panhandles will help to bring another weak short wave trough and mid level moisture across the Panhandles this afternoon. Some of the models show the possibility of a cap in the lower layers of the atmosphere into the afternoon. On Thursday, the upper level trough will move across the northern Rockies and onto the northern High Plains by late in the afternoon. The strengthening zonal flow to the south of this trough across the Panhandles will help to push the dryline to the eastern Panhandles by afternoon.
Remnant showers and increased cloud cover across the region will keep the high temperatures lower for Wednesday, with highs expected in the low to mid 90s. In the upper levels, Oklahoma and western north Texas continues to remain in the area between a ridge extending through Texas into the Great Lakes region, and a large longwave trough with an associated cyclone beginning to move through California/Southern Nevada. With the positioning of the ridge, any storms that develop will likely stay in the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle and into Kansas, however northwestern Oklahoma may see some precipitation Wednesday night.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): Elongated 500mb ridge axis extending from Texas to the Great Lakes will continue to provide subsidence over the area through the period. At the surface, high pressure across the southeast U. extending into the northern Gulf of Mexico will maintain an onshore flow across the lower Texas coast today into Thursday. Lows tonight will fall into the upper 60s to the lower 70s as sightly drier filters into the region.
trough that has brought wind to the region over the past week is centered over central California/Lake Tahoe area this morning. The upper low and trough will dig southeast today and into southern Nevada this evening. Some areas of blowing dust are likely across the lower valleys of northeastern Arizona. Breezy winds continue tonight as the base of the trough swings through northwestern Arizona. Winds will gradually decrease and shift to the north overnight behind the trough passage. Temperatures will begin to warm for all but areas northeast of the Rim which will actually see a bit of cooling behind the trough passage.
a cold front will cross the area from the northwest around the time of peak heating. Once the aforementioned cold front crosses the area. cooler weather should filter in across the region with seasonably warm temperatures forecast through the remainder of the forecast periods. it appears the best shot for any widespread rainfall with come with the initial cold front Thursday afternoon and evening.
/Issued 406 AM CDT Wed May 11 2022/ The Panhandles will be between an upper level trough digging through the Great Basin and a ridge of high pressure that stretched from eastern Texas to southern Michigan. The southwest flow aloft over the Panhandles will help to bring another weak short wave trough and mid level moisture across the Panhandles this afternoon. Some of the models show the possibility of a cap in the lower layers of the atmosphere into the afternoon. On Thursday, the upper level trough will move across the northern Rockies and onto the northern High Plains by late in the afternoon. The strengthening zonal flow to the south of this trough across the Panhandles will help to push the dryline to the eastern Panhandles by afternoon.
1048 AM EDT Wed May 11 2022 High pressure will maintain fair weather through the rest of the week with a day to day warming trend.
/22/ Today and Tonight: Warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather is expected to continue through the period. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a 592dam ridge the axis of which was from old Mexico northeast across the mid Mississippi valley. Early morning surface analysis had a 1021mb ridge axis from the northeast across our southeast zones. These ridges will continue across our CWA through tonight and maintain the recent warm spell and dry weather. Under mostly sunny skies and a light wind temperatures will top out in the lower 90s at most locations but some sites in east Mississippi may remain in the upper 80s. There may be a few more clouds in the northeast Thursday morning but morning lows are expected to range from the upper 60s in the east to the lower 70s in the west again.
/Issued 330 AM EDT Wed May 11 2022/ Rather quiet fcst period continues with dry conditions from persistent subsidence under ridge west of the upper cutoff low, that will still be centered off the Southeast coast today. The aforementioned cutoff low begins to retrograde westward for Thursday under the large scale blocking pattern aloft, which should increase some moisture and cloud coverage in the eastern CWA. Temps today should reach near to slightly above normal with many areas in the low to mid 80s, then some eastern portions limited and cooler in the mid 70s to low 80s for Thursday given influence of approaching low and increased moisture/clouds.
This should clear during the afternoon on into tonight as upper ridging continues to expand into the region. A MCS over northern Lower has weakened significantly early this morning as it spills anticyclonically toward the southeast along the periphery of a 590 dam H5 ridge. Omega block remains well established across CONUS as a longwave trough lingers west of the Continental Divide and an Atlantic upper low retrogrades aggressively toward The Southeast. Minor height rises denoted with the gradual amplification of the expansive ridge axis which nudges daytime highs a few degrees upward, especially over the Saginaw Valley which becomes better aligned with the tilting thermal bubble.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 60 86 61 81 / 10 0 0 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 56 83 58 80 / 10 0 0 10 40 Oak Ridge, TN 85 57 83 59 80 / 10 0 0 10 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 50 79 57 77 / 0 0 10 10 60.
520 AM MDT Wed May 11 2022 Water vapor shows broad upper trof over the western CONUS with upper low over CA/NV. At the surface, high is centered over the Upper Midwest with inverted trof extending through northeast WY into southwest ND. Large scale ascent will begin to increase later today, and especially tonight as upper low shifts into UT and begins to tilt negatively. Negatively tilted upper low will lift northeast across WY on Thursday and into eastern MT and western ND Thursday night. Showers and storms will remain likely from northeast WY into northwest SD in closer proximity to the upper low, especially during the afternoon/early evening hours, with generally less chances further southeast.
950 AM EDT Wed May 11 2022 High pressure will keep conditions dry through tonight. Rain chances will increase by Thursday as low pressure funnels moisture from the Atlantic Ocean westward toward the Appalachian Mountains.
Expect mainly dry conditions today and later tonight as an upper ridge remains over Central Indiana. Expect mainly clear skies overnight with lows only dropping into the low to mid 60s as low level moisture keeps temperatures mild. A retrograding upper low over the Southeast will provide E/SE flow through the day. Strong upper level ridging will remain anchored from the Texas Gulf Coast northeast into the Great Lakes for late week in between an upper low off the southeast U S and a broad trough over the northern PLains and Pacific Northwest.
Unusual weather pattern with fairly stout low pressure off of the southeast U. An isolated lightning storm threat (near coast) will be present late tonight as the low edges closer and temperatures aloft cool promoting additional destabilization. Increasing sprinkle/shower chances thru the day into the night with isolated lightning storms in play after midnight with further destabilization overnight due to proximity of approaching low pressure.
Clear skies on Wednesday as high pressure begins to grow.