Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Attendant to the Canadian low will be a cold front that drapes southward into Iowa, bending to the SW as it phases with the southern low. Leading the cold front NW of the southern low will be a warm front oriented from NW to SE. With sfc temps near to below freezing across northern Iowa through most of this morning, could see a few flurries mixed in across northern Iowa. Will have to keep an eye out for radiational/freezing fog potential from around Highway 20 and north.
This has had a big effect on surface temps, holding them up above freezing where clouds persist. Most locations will stay in the 40s to near 50, but portions of se MO may make it into the lower to mid 50s. The next cold front waiting in the wings will arrive Monday morning, and push southeast through much of the region by early afternoon.
304 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Intense low pressure will track to our west tonight through Monday bringing strong winds.
Near the surface, a trough of low pressure is moving slowly east across central Kansas. For tonight, the cold front tied to the next system will be pushing very quickly south across southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas.
214 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Winds will diminish in the wake of the strong cold front tonight. A few of the normally colder locations may experience frost, with areas across the western cwa possibly seeing freezing temperatures toward sunrise. The pressure ridge behind the front will slide southeastward and be along the Gulf and Southeast Coasts Monday. General ridging will remain in the region during the rest of the week. With warmer lake waters and good mixing across the lakes, a lake wind advisory remains in effect until 2 am. As for freezing temperature potential, confidence is a little higher across the western and northwestern cwa for a larger area to see temperatures at the freezing mark by morning.
A strong cold front is expected to move through Monday and introduced wind shift at CNM and HOB. /issued 252 AM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017/ Sunny and warmer temperatures (near normal) are expected today as a surface lee trough forms and intensifies across the high plains as a large upper trough continues to progress across the eastern half of the nation. The warming will be short-lived as another upper trough amplifies across the northern half of the nation on Monday. This trough will send a strong cold front south through the forecast area during the day Monday. Prefer a quicker frontal passage and the cooler NAM, ARW and NMM guidance due to its better resolution.
348 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 The latest GOES Satellite data shows solid depiction of the upper level trough axis in a bit of a negative tilt near the greater Eastern Tennessee Valley this afternoon. This will wane through the early evening, as the high begins to build east and stratus deck erodes from west to east. Monday night the cold front does sink southward and perhaps winds change to more of the westward direction. Overall the there will still be some frost potential as another area of high pressure builds east. This seems reasonable as high pressure moves eastward along with the pesky upper level trough axis.
Temperatures this afternoon will remain chilly in the lower 40s, except where some sun may be able to boost highs closer to 45.
Lots of sunshine today, along with light winds mainly from the southwest, will help produce afternoon highs much closer to seasonal normals, mainly in the lower to mid 70s. For tonight, winds from the south in the 10 to 15 mph range will help produce lows warmer than the previous two nights; numbers mainly in the lower to mid 40s look likely. (Monday and Monday Night) Ahead of another cold front, dry conditions will continue, along with temperatures close to seasonal normals. Another cold front may begin to move into our far northwestern counties prior to the time of maximum heating Monday afternoon. Lows Monday night will be mainly in the lower to mid 40s, as colder air moves across our counties with the front.
It's only the far east where the low stratus is still present.
As of 8Z, a surface warm front is crossing western South Dakota with winds becoming westerly. As temperatures continue to rise, along with increasing LLM, the threat for freezing pcpn or snow is very limited. Pcpn amounts today will be very light based on the amount of dry air in the lower levels. A cold front will sink southward across the region this afternoon with wind becoming gusty from the northwest.
531 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Southwest winds will develop throughout the area tonight as our next cold front approaches from the north. The wind should keep temperatures well above freezing and keep frost from being much of a concern for a change. The 12Z guidance clears the area more rapidly from the north Monday night which will result in temperatures into the lower 30s over portions of the area and a frost concern as well.
1213 PM MDT Sun Oct 29 2017 A mild day across the CWA ahead of a cold front now moving across central and eastern Montana. Not out of the question to see a little freezing drizzle this evening but should not have much effect. Cold front making steady progress south across eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska early this afternoon. Cold front will move south across the districts late this morning through the afternoon switching winds out of the north to northeast.
241 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Today's warm up will be short lived as the strong, quick moving cold front is still on track for Monday morning.
With warmer air moving northward ahead of the wave and westerly flow enhancing mixing, highs today are expected to reach the 50s in most of southeastern South Dakota into portions of northwestern Iowa. Despite cooler air trying to move in, the stronger winds will keep temperature at or above freezing over most of the area tonight.
315 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017 WV imagery shows a broad upper trough ejecting up the eastern seaboard, leaving the western/central CONUS under NW flow aloft. Further west, a closed low sits off the CA coast. Unfortunately, to the north, a cold front is plowing thru NE, and will bring temps back below-normal Monday afternoon. Meanwhile, to the west, the trough off the west coast will dig south along the U.
256 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017 For tonight, a cold front is expected to enter northwest Oklahoma and progress southward through the morning hours. Behind the cold front, nearly steady temperatures are expected across northern Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon.
347 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017 A cold front has reached the northern and western fringes of the forecast area the past hour. which should end up in most locations struggling to make it out of the lower to middle 40s by Monday afternoon. most locations will likely remain above freezing early Monday morning as breezy winds and mostly cloudy skies should help keep overnight lows somewhat elevated. this chance for light rain has been removed as model data no longer supports this and the atmosphere remains too dry in the lower levels to justify a continued mention for rain.
Surface wise, a secondary cold front is draped on the outer Straits of Florida with high pressure located along the southeast Texas coast.
As colder air wraps into the departing system, rain will likely mix with or change to wet snow late tonight into early Monday over the higher elevations of the Alleghenies. The cold air intrusion very strong height falls behind the powerful mid latitude cyclone is likely to support a mix/changeover from rain to wet snow over the higher terrain along the Alleghenies. Lows will drop into the lower 30s.
Radars are showing a cold front moving southward from around Fort Collins to Akron. There is an upper trough to our north and northeast. The low level wind progs show all north and northeasterly upslope flow for the plains into the foothills tonight and Monday. Forecast soundings are still showing freezing drizzle a good possibility tonight, with mostly light snow after 12Z Monday morning. The highest pops will be from the divide eastward in the mountains and the foothills.
422 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Winds will diminish in the wake of the strong cold front tonight. A few of the normally colder locations may experience frost, with areas across the western cwa possibly seeing freezing temperatures toward sunrise. The pressure ridge behind the front will slide southeastward and be along the Gulf and Southeast Coasts Monday. General ridging will remain in the region during the rest of the week. With warmer lake waters and good mixing across the lakes, a lake wind advisory remains in effect until 2 am. As for freezing temperature potential, confidence is a little higher across the western and northwestern cwa for a larger area to see temperatures at the freezing mark by morning.
Water vapor imagery shows a cutoff closed low moving into the central CA coast amidst weak ridging over the western CONUS. A cold front associated with a upper low over east-central Canada is quickly advancing south through the northern and central plains.
At the surface, cold front stretches across southern SD and continues to push south. Cold front is expected to continue tracking south tonight and by sunrise will be approaching the Red River. Broad upper trough will encompass the northern Plains Wed with zonal flow over the central/southern Plains resulting in warming sw downslope winds. A cold front will move southeast across the forecast area and swing the wind around to a northerly direction within a few hours of 06Z.
A cold front will then start moving south across the region around midnight. /Issued 324 AM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017/ Today will be the last warm day for the next few days as a cold front will work its way south across the Panhandles starting late tonight through the early morning hours on Monday. However, for today, west to southwesterly flow will advect some warmer temperatures into the region with high temperatures well into the 70s. Starting late tonight into early tomorrow morning, a cold front will work its way south across the Panhandles and should exit the southern TX Panhandle by day break on Monday. Behind the cold front in the morning hours on Monday, winds will be quite gusty out of the northeast due to steep height gradients following the cold front itself.
300 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 A strong cold front will be moving across the area this evening as a potent upper level tror pivots northeastward into the middle Atlantic states. Chilly high pressure will quickly build into the eastern US tonight through Monday. The cold front stretches across the central Piedmont this afternoon and will reach the Coastal Plain by early evening. some areas in the western Piedmont could fall briefly to near freezing at sunrise. Broad troffing sets up near zonal flow across the CONUS on Monday, with high pressure edging in from the south to provide weak warm advection to accompany strong insolation. A dry front aligns parallel to the zonal flow and slows/stalls north of the area tomorrow night, with diurnal plunge mitigated by the warmer airmass and potential mid cloudiness.
High pressure responsible for our spell of pleasant weather will be breaking down this week. Daytime temperatures will be a little cooler beginning Monday.
No accumulations since temperatures are above freezing. /Issued 325 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017/ Cold front is currently clearing the far SE zones within the CWFA. High pressure will build in from the west through the short term period. Sustained winds around 20mph will be possible across the entire CWFA, with slightly higher sustained winds in the highest elevations. There could be another tier of counties just to the south that could potentially be included within the warning, but confidence is not as high at this time that the majority of the county will see freezing temperatures. High pressure will move closer to overhead on Monday.
The cold front, which has pushed through eastern Montana today, has kept temperatures nearly constant and cold on a gusty NW wind, gusting up to 40 mph at times. Any lingering precipitation behind the cold front this afternoon and evening through Monday morning is expected to be very light, and given the expected temperatures, would change over from rain to snow.
A deep upper trof over the eastern United States has brought Alabama its coldest air mass of the Fall season. The clouds and light north winds have kept temperatures warmer than forecast, and was able to cancel the frost advisory that was in effect for early this morning. The clouds will likely hang around until mid morning, and erode from west to east as a low level ridge over Texas builds eastward. Temperatures will be warmer today due to less afternoon cloud cover and weakening cold air advection. Increasing warm air advection in the 1000-850mb layer tonight will hinder temperatures from falling to 32 degrees or colder in most areas, although freezing temperatures possible in some of the northeast counties.
The pressure gradient will relax tonight as high pressure along the coast of Texas shifts east along the northern Gulf coast and over the Suwannee Valley by Monday morning. High pressure will then settle over the northeastern Gulf, Suwannee Valley region through the day on Monday. A cold night is in store tonight, and winds may decouple towards morning as high pressure builds into the region. This may allow temperatures to drop into the low/mid 30s across the western portion of the region, especially in well sheltered locations and patchy frost is possible. Winds will likely remain elevated along the east coast, and temperatures will be in the low 40s.
Cooler than normal temperatures will hang around until the end of the week.
Strong subsidence and a dry air mass will allow temps to warm up nicely today, with afternoon highs mainly in the 70s, possibly some lower 80s in the Low Rolling Plains. However, a cold front dropping out of Canada into the northern plains this morning will be making it's way into northwest Texas early Monday. The latest guidance supports a swift morning frontal passage through our forecast area so we have trending temps toward the cooler side of guidance.
Wind shift associated with cold front will affect all terminals after midnight, but the stronger northeasterly winds won't begin until mid morning. Current temperatures are already in the low to mid 40s, on the way to highs in the 60s. Surface cold front, now near the SD/NE border, will move toward the region tonight, reaching northeast Oklahoma around or just after midnight. This will result in north winds on Monday, with high temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today.
This dry air mass will again allow decent radiational cooling tonight, although increasing wind speeds will certainly make for temperatures warmer than this morning. Warm again on Monday, although approaching cold front will reach the northern Big Country in time to keep highs in the 60s. Elsewhere, temperatures will have plenty of time to climb into the 70s before the cold front begins to have an effect. (Monday night through Sunday) The cold front will move through the rest of West Central Texas Monday night.
345 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Low pressure in south central Canada, just north of the Minnesota border will dive southeast into the Great Lakes region tonight into Monday morning. The 500mb low aloft which is driving the surface system will provide the dynamics to drive a cold front south through the CWFA late tonight and Monday morning. Forecast soundings are pretty dry in the low levels though, and MOS PoPs are correspondingly low. Clouds and southerly flow ahead of the front tonight should keep temperatures at least 10 degrees warmer tonight than they were last night.
The initial surge of wind will accompany a 6-10 MB 6hr pressure bubble associated with the cold front approaching the southwest after 12Z. The precipitation type today will be rain as the warm air predominates the lower atmosphere. Then cooler air late this afternoon and tonight will bring a chance for snow. Models have changed the flow regime for mid week due to a blocking east coast pattern. Instead of another clipper system, the global models send the energy into a closed low over the southwest leaving the upper midwest in between.
VFR conditions and light NE to SE winds will prevail through the period as high pressure shifts east. CLR skies expected through the next 24 hours across the area under strong high pressure. The high will also keep winds generally light/variable through the day, before hinting at a slight southeasterly direction after sunset. /issued 410 AM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Monday):A fine day coming up for the latter half of the weekend as high pressure controls the surface conditions, with dry northwesterly flow aloft behind the large-scale H5 trough moving into the eastern US.
1217 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Near-normal temperatures make a brief return today as surface flow returns to the south and warmer conditions build in from the west aloft; however, these milder temperatures will be pushed quickly to the south by another cold front late tonight. As has been the case with the previous fronts in this repetitive pattern, breezy northwest winds will follow the frontal passage, then the colder air will filter down ~24 hours later as the upper trough carves southward, making Halloween the coolest of the next several days.
Will continue to look at the high temperature forecast, especially for the Bluegrass areas, where stratus will hang on the longest and may keep readings in the upper 30s to lower 40s at best. However, by this afternoon the upper level trough will be shifting east of the forecast area. Most of the region will top out in the mid 40s, however with the upper low and cloud cover in place. The night will begin with surface ridging and northwesterly flow aloft. East central KY may see a brief dip to freezing temps or just below around 06Z, but then rise again after. Given the lack of confidence in hazardous frost/freezing temps tonight, have decided to hold off on headlines for now. Monday will be quite a bit warmer, though a cold front will move through during the afternoon.
As high pressure sits firmly in place across the region and in control of our weather, highs this afternoon will top out from the middle 50s to around 60 under sunny skies. The winds will mainly be out of the northwest, but will swing around to the southwest as the ridge axis shifts to the east of the area this evening.
237 PM MDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Potent upper trough is pushing through the region with an associated sfc cold front well through the area. Gusty NW winds continue and will do so through Monday as a secondary cold front moves through the area later tonight. Secondary cold front and associated upper level impulse will push into the region late this evening and support an increase in ll flow and CAA. Best overlap of dynamics will occur late tonight into late Monday morning, with a couple of inches of snow possible, mainly in the higher elevations. Warmer weather can be expected Wed, before another cold front pushes thorough Wed night.
403 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017 After a brief warmup today, a cold front will sweep across the area later tonight and Monday bringing a return to cooler temperatures for the first part of the coming week.
218 PM MDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Northwest flow is in place across the Plains, with a large scale trough over Canada and the eastern US. This has kicked a cold front south, which is now approaching the northern extent of our CWA. This afternoon-Monday: The cold front has been slower to arrive resulting in very good mixing: much lower surface Tds, higher temps, and a slower increase in northwest winds. Temp profiles may suggest a potential for freezing rain or snow across our west, but due to the coverage and light nature of the precip I am not confident we will see anything worthy of more than a mention in the HWO.
/issued 347 AM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017/ The upper-level trough continues to move slowly east early this morning, with the trough axis currently swinging through the Mid- South. Moisture on the backside of this trough has resulted in overcast conditions across much of west TN into extreme northeast MS. As this cloud deck slowly moves east, we'll see the freezing temps follow suit. Thus, no changes have been made to the Freeze Warning area, although it was broken into two segments to emphasize the temperatures remaining in the lower 30s over the northeast quadrant of the CWA. It's certainly not out of the question that some areas in the Tennessee River Valley remain above freezing this morning.
357 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 The latest GOES Satellite data shows solid depiction of the upper level trough axis in a bit of a negative tilt near the greater Eastern Tennessee Valley this afternoon. This will wane through the early evening, as the high begins to build east and stratus deck erodes from west to east. Monday night the cold front does sink southward and perhaps winds change to more of the westward direction. Overall the there will still be some frost potential as another area of high pressure builds east.
A mostly dry cold front will cross the area from north to south late tonight through Monday, followed by a mild west to southwest flow for the end of the week.
700 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 A strong cold front will move offshore this evening. Chilly high pressure will quickly build into the state from the west through Monday. The cold front stretches across the central Piedmont this afternoon and will reach the Coastal Plain by early evening. some areas in the western Piedmont could fall briefly to near freezing at sunrise. Broad troffing sets up near zonal flow across the CONUS on Monday, with high pressure edging in from the south to provide weak warm advection to accompany strong insolation. A dry front aligns parallel to the zonal flow and slows/stalls north of the area tomorrow night, with diurnal plunge mitigated by the warmer airmass and potential mid cloudiness.
1153 AM CST Wed Mar 7 2018 Today looks much quieter across the region as a strong upper level short wave trough departs to our southeast. The back edge of these clouds should start progressing east early this morning as a 850 mb thermo trough does likewise.
239 PM CST Wed Mar 7 2018 Latest satellite imagery reveals broad cyclonic flow centered over the Great Lakes with a weak ridge extending into the Great Basin. Except for some mid/high clouds, dry conditions are expected to persist with some breezy afternoons in response to some weak lee troughing, thus resulting in elevated fire weather.
259 PM CST Wed Mar 7 2018 A s/w continues to rotate around the large upper low centered over the Great Lakes region. Still, with temps not warming as much today, have trended twd cooler guidance. While the CWA will remain under CAA thru Thurs, the insolation shud allow for temps to climb into the lower, perhaps middle, 40s.
912 AM MST Wed Mar 7 2018 Current surface analysis shows high pressure centered over western ND, with frontal boundary just southwest of the area. Upper level analysis shows low over the Great Lakes, with northwest flow over the Northern Plains, and a ridge along the west coast. Upper low spins over the Great Lakes, while a ridge builds over the western CONUS. Quiet weather and a warming trend are expected through the end of the workweek, as the upper ridge shifts over the central states.
302 PM EST Wed Mar 7 2018 Cold air will continue to be funnelled into the region through Thursday as a low pressure system tracks southeast through the Great Lakes.
High pressure over southeastern Idaho today will give way to moist air off the pacific Thursday.
Cooler highs in the mid to upper 30s. Temps currently in the low to mid 30s, will only climb a few more degrees into the mid to upper 30s this afternoon due to stratocumulus clouds and cold air advection from brisk nw winds today. A broad upper low continues across most of the Midwest early this morning, with the main center near the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. However, the upper trough axis currently extending northwest across the Minnesota Arrowhead will swing southward through the day. The steady northwest flow around the upper low continues to pump colder air into our region, and highs today will generally be in the mid to upper 30s.