Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOCATIONS NORTH OF A CHEYENNE TO STILLWATER LINE FAVORED NEAR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MAINLY FOCUSED ON THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT.
359 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015 UPPER RIDGING HAS FINALLY YIELDED WITH TROUGHING UNDERWAY IN THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES STATES. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DEEPENS.
242 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY.
High pressure will bring historically hot temperatures to the Northern Rockies today through the weekend.
154 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015 A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO START ENTERING THE CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z OR SO. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER EACH RUN WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE COOLER FOLLOWING FROPA WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
AND THE AIRMASS HAS REMAINED COOLER THAN THE SURROUNDING AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT TO SEE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 14Z BEFORE CLEARING AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION MIXES OUT.
224 AM PDT FRI JUN 26 2015 AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STRONG UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER W CENTRAL UT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE OVER THE CWA. THE HIGH EXPANDS IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS AND THE AIRMASS WARMS EVEN MORE UNDER IT WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING 100 ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT INCLUDING SLC. MOISTURE INCREASES A BIT WITHIN THE HIGH ENOUGH TO RAISE THE FLASH FLOOD RATING INTO THE LOW CATEGORY FOR THE SRN MTNS AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH AS STORM DRIFT WILL BE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE HIGH MOVES LITTLE SUN THRU MON AND A CONTINUED GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITHIN THE HIGH SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS AND START TO GET A LITTLE WETTER SUN AFTN/EVE AND MORE SO MON AFTN/EVE.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS A APPROACHING TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND BRING HEIGHT FALLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER SOME OF THE NAM SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST REASONABLE SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WHILE THE DEPTH OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL IN QUESTION MOST MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NE OF THE OHIO VALLEY AS WE MOVE INTO SATURDAY.
WARMER THAN NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY. WARMER THAN NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS WILL PERSIST TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL FORCING VIA THE FRONT/TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING VIA A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS (WRF/HRRR/RAP) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
618 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015 A cooler and drier airmass will settle over the area today and give us a day with, wait for it, no chance for rain. This will make for much more comfortable levels of humidity when combined with the lower 80 degree air temperatures forecast.
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL FORCING VIA THE FRONT/TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING VIA A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS (WRF/HRRR/RAP) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
THE AREA LIES IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LEE-SIDE TROUGH OVER WESTERN ZONES. COMBINED WITH RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL PROVIDE A SSE SURFACE FETCH TO ALLOW FOR DEEPER INFLUX OF SFC MOISTURE. THEN SHIFT EASTWARD AS H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY INTO THE PLAINS REGION.
626 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL HELP KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET ONCE AGAIN TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD TONIGHT LOWS TONIGHT TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
A BIT FURTHER TO THE NW A COLD FRONT HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING S/SE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE PUSHES THE OUTFLOW COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA AND REDEVELOPS CONVECTION SOUTH ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TODAY AND KEEPS THE AREA GENERALLY DRY AS THE COLD FRONT REMAINS FURTHER TO THE NORTH. THE LARGER SCALE MODELS CANT DISCERN THE OUTFLOW VERY WELL AND REDEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE AREA TODAY. THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS SHIFTS EAST AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
TROUGH WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, DRY AIR IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI THOUGH AND THIS WILL LEAD TO TSTORM COVERAGE HOLDING IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CATEGORY. GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS PINCHES OFF A PIECE OF THE EAST COAST TROUGH, CLOSING IT OFF OVER FLORIDA OR JUST EAST.
642 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2015 /12Z TAFS/ The low clouds over the Hill Country dissipated this morning before reaching KJCT. At the surface, a cold front was located from the south plains, extending northeast into central OK.
OVER THIS COMING WEEKEND ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AND IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND MORE HUMID THEN TOO. AN UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER LOW (RETURN PERIOD IS ONE DAY IN 2 YEARS TO SEE A FEATURE THIS DEEP AT THIS TIME OF YEAR). HOWEVER THE POLAR JET AND THIS UPPER LOW DO SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVER TIME.
BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH. A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH LESS THAN RECENT DAYS ACROSS THE NORTH.
1028 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY. OUR WEATHER TODAY WILL FEATURE PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE SHORT TERM BRINGING A DRIER FORECAST AND A LESS MUGGY AIRMASS. TEMPS JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS BEHIND TODAYS COLD FRONT. WIDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS STARTING TO AMPLIFY A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RECOVER A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. SHORT WAVE WILL UNDERCUT BUILDING RIDGE AND TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
CLOUD COVER WAS KEEPING TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT FROM I-40 SOUTH. WHILE EVENING RAIN EARLIER AND A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS PROVIDING COOLER TEMPERATURES FARTHER NORTH.
100 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LESS HUMID AIR. SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKING SOUTH ACROSS OUR LOCAL AREA. ONCE COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FOLLOW TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. SHOULD FEEL MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE.
1111 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON.
959 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015 A COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BE TAKING PLACE INTO THIS EVENING AMID AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GO NEARLY CALM WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AREAS OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM ALONG AND N OF I64 WITH LOW STRATUS THE RULE IN S WV AND SW VA CLOSER TO THE FRONT. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. NO REAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WITH MODELS HOLDING ONTO HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND.
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER TEXAS AND EXTENDED OVER THE BRO CWFA WILL COMBINE WITH A RELATIVE DRY ATMOSPHERE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1. AND THIS TREND SHOULD PERSIST FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE HIGH AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER.
NW FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT WHICH IS INDUCING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THRU OUR REGION. THIS NEARLY W-E ORIENTED COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF STL METRO AT 07Z. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH THE COLD FRONT SET TO CLEAR OUR FORECAST AREA AND MOVE SOUTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WITH MAXES IN THE LOW-MID 80S.
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AFTER 22/00Z FOR THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE NORTH OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ONLY A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS APPROACHING THE 110 DEGREE MARK FOR SOME LOCALES ON THE LOWER DESERTS BY THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN INCREASING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS.
820 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON.
/ISSUED 331 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015/ WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN JULY'S PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
Still quite muggy across the forecast area with dew points hovering in the upper 60s to mid 70s and temperatures in the low to mid 70s. A secondary front was located over northern Missouri with quite a bit drier air behind that boundary with dew points in the low to mid 60s. That moisture will stream back into the region full force on Wednesday and a warm front will lift back into the area. As we head into Wednesday night, the low level jet will increase and interact with a west to east frontal boundary in the Plains with a thunderstorm complex likely to develop just to our northwest.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S AS OF 07Z. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. THEN SHOULD MIX OUT AS THE SHALLOW INVERSION WEAKENS AND MIXING COMMENCES IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SHOULD FEEL MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE.
AT THE SURFACE, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE COLD FRONT IS JUST SOUTH OF ANDERSON COUNTY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH. BASED ON MIXING TO 825MB THIS AFTERNOON, THINK HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S THANKS TO THE WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. HAVE TONIGHT'S LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S WITH THE DRYER AIRMASS IN PLACE. IF UPPER CLOUDS BEGIN STREAMING NORTHEAST QUICKER THAN THE FORECAST HAS IT, LOWS ACROSS NORTHEAST KS COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.
RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST AS A RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
1030 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. COLD FRONT APPROACHING CLE THIS MORNING WITH A THIN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE EAST. PREV DISCUSSION -> COLD FRONT WILL WORK THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE. WITH COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
607 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERHEAD WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.
BY 00Z TONIGHT THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL IOWA WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
CUMULUS CONGESTUS WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE LEE OF THE LOWER KEYS THIS AFTERNOON. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK.
BUT SHOULD STILL BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL JUST A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER-MID 80S.
1243 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015 STRONGLY CONFLUENT FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS AND LOWER 80S WITHIN THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF METRO DETROIT. THIS RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE BH/S AND ACROSS SCENTRAL SD WHERE A LL THETA-E RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TOWARD A STRONGER PAC NW UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL SUPPORT STRONGER WAA WED. THE LINGERING THETA-E RIDGE OVER SCENTRAL SD COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLD TS IN THE AFTERNOON IF INHIBITION IS OVERCOME. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT HIGH BASED CONVECTION COULD SKIRT THE NW FA LATE WED NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A WARMER DAY IS IN STORE WED WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING 80S AND 90S.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE 500MB HEIGHT GETS DOWN TO ABOUT 567DM OVER SEATTLE AS THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES PUGET SOUND TUESDAY EVENING. 700MB TEMPS OVER THE NORTH CASCADES SHOULD GET DOWN TO AROUND 0C WITH THIS WEAK UPPER TROUGH.
1003 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THUS EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TRACK THROUGH OWYHEE TROUGH LATE MORNING WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SNAKE RIVER. THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF A KBNO-KTWF LINE AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BOISE MOUNTAINS. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. AIDED BY BY AN UPPER JET SITUATED ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
656 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE NORTH CENTRAL U. CLEAR SKIES AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW 80S. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.
WEAK COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE COMING THROUGH THE MID STATE A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, AND MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH PUSHING MAIN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STEADILY SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY, AND TURNING LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. HEAT INDICES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S NORTH TO AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER THE SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT GOES STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL OK TO NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA, WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES (IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT). ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT THE STATIONARY FRONT TO PIVOT BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT AND BY LATE IN THE DAY SHOULD STRETCH FROM EASTERN KANSAS TO NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA.
1037 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AFTERNOON READINGS SHOULD TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. CEO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA UNDER RELATIVELY LIGHT UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS IT REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLIES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. AS WE MOVE INTO THE WARMER PART OF THE DAY.
BASED ON LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL DATA I SHIFTED THE HIGHER POPS EAST FOR THE EVENING /FROM WESTERN ZONES TO CENTRAL ZONES/. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER TIME ACROSS THE AREA AS BROAD UPPER TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST SLOWLY WORKS EASTWARD. MOST OF THE STRONGER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF WILL MISS THE FORECAST AREA TO THE WEST AND NORTH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE A BIT BETTER ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TODAY BASED ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE WESTERN TROF. HI-RES ENSEMBLE MODELS ALSO SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP MID AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROF AND THE BLACK HILLS. WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH LOWER 90S LOOKING REASONABLE FOR MOST LOW ELEVATION LOCATIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
859 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
1010 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
638 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
OUR WEATHER TODAY WILL FEATURE PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE SHORT TERM BRINGING A DRIER FORECAST AND A LESS MUGGY AIRMASS. TEMPS JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS BEHIND TODAYS COLD FRONT. WIDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS STARTING TO AMPLIFY A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
WITH CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPS MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS FOR ALL BUT FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. UPPER RIDGE WILL RE-ASSERT ITSELF OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO HOT WEATHER AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
WITH HIGHEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 93 72 90 71 / 40 20 40 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 89 71 87 68 / 50 20 30 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 89 71 87 68 / 50 20 30 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 87 66 85 63 / 50 20 20 20.
933 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PRE-FRONTAL TROF AHEAD THE COLD FRONT WILL KICK OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS BASED ON THE BEST INSTABILITY DUE TO AVAILABLE HEATING. AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES EAST THIS AFTN, EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH CONVECTION DVLPNG AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES. MODELS INDICATING A PRE-FRONTAL TROF WL DVLP THIS AFTN ACRS THE ALLAGASH AND SLIDE THRU NRN MAINE LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A CORRIDOR OR DRY AIR MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING PARTIAL SUNSHINE.
DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR HAS MIXED DOWN INTO THE LOWERS 500MB HOWEVER PWAT IS STILL ABOVE AVG AT 2. /ISSUED 254 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015/ UPPER HIGH STILL CAUSING GREAT AMOUNT OF STABILITY VIA DYNAMIC COMPRESSION. THIS IS MUCH MORE EVIDENT THE FARTHER WEST ONE MOVES UNDER THE HIGH. WE WILL REMAIN ON THE PREIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND THUS SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAPPING. AT THIS TIME THINKING IS THAT ONCE CONVECTIVE INITIATION TAKES PLACE CLOUD COVER AND EXHAUST UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD SHADE LARGE AREAS TODAY AND SUBSEQUENT DAYS THAT LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL STAY SLIGHTLY COOLER. THE RIDGE BACKS OFF FARTHER WEST OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT WILL EVENTUALLY WOBBLE BACK EAST TO KEEP SOME HEAT IN THE FCAST FOR THE NEXT 8 TO 10 DAYS.
THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF A KBNO-KTWF LINE AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BOISE MOUNTAINS. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. AIDED BY BY AN UPPER JET SITUATED ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
Latest HRRRX looks a little more realistic, with development along the river around 18Z, but this will depend on how long the lower clouds hang around this AM. Proximity to our southern border means including some chance for mainly afternoon storms down there, but most of our region should be dry with temperatures in the lower 80s.
701 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERHEAD WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY.
1001 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE VFR TONIGHT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WITH UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TX WITH RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.
/ISSUED 336 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015/ CURRENT ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOISTURE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WEST JUST A BIT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. RIDGE BECOMES MORE ROBUST TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK CAUSING RAIN CHANCES TO GO DOWN AND TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ONCE AGAIN. BUT OVERALL TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WITH SOME POSSIBLE WEAKENING LATE AS TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SWD TODAY AND STALL ACROSS OUR NWRN ZONES. /ISSUED 313 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015/ UPPER-RIDGE BREAKING DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THESE AREAS THIS MORNING. ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO SHIFT SOUTH AND FLATTEN ALLOWING FOR MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE WITH AN INCOMING TROUGH BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDS. WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AFTER 22/00Z FOR THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE.
735 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015 THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE TX/LA REGION WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE WESTWARD DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A TROUGH DEEPENS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA.