Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD EXPAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH MIDWEEK. MORNING WATER VAPOR AND H5 ANALYSIS INDICATE A MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN EXPANDING NORTHEAST. WITH THE HIGH/S MID LEVEL CIRCULATION RESIDING OVER SOUTHERN UTAH ATTM. THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO FILL AND OPEN OFF THE SOCAL COAST WED.
917 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A DEEPENING SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. HAVE INDICATED ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TUESDAY NIGHT.
723 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. USHERING IN MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS AND SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS IN THE EAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THINK THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. THEN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THE AREA TUESDAY.
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH NOT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A FOGGY START TO THE DAY AS STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SUBSIDENCE HAS CREATED A DOME OF COOLER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AND A LIGHT LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW HAS PROVIDED A LITTLE MOISTURE FLUX. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP TONIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. MLCAPES PROJECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 100S BUT FORCING. CLOUD COVER AND A PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PROVIDE FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS THAN WE'VE EXPERIENCE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
1107 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 Thin line of showers associated with the cold front over the region is making its way across Central Illinois this morning. Cooler temperatures behind the front and partly sunny with the exception of the narrow band of mid level clouds with the sprinkles. As high pressure sits over the southeastern US, a weak/dry cold front will move across the CWA today. However, ahead of the front, temps are expected to remain above normal, with middle 70s expected in the northwest, to the lower 80s in the southeast. Deepening upper low over far southern Manitoba will slowly fill over central Ontario tonight.
950 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY/STABLE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL FL AS A WEAK HI PRES RIDGE OVER THE GOMEX/DEEP SOUTH USHERS CONTINENTAL AIR INTO THE REGION. STATIONARY FRONT PARKED OVER S FL/NRN BAHAMAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACES AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS OVERHEAD. GENTLE TO MODERATE WRLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL AS A WEAK HI PRES RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT OVER S FL/NRN BAHAMAS.
618 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 As high pressure sits over the southeastern US, a weak/dry cold front will move across the CWA today. However, ahead of the front, temps are expected to remain above normal, with middle 70s expected in the northwest, to the lower 80s in the southeast. Deepening upper low over far southern Manitoba will slowly fill over central Ontario tonight.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 77 57 76 47 / 0 60 10 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 76 57 73 46 / 0 60 10 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 76 55 73 46 / 10 70 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 74 54 72 42 / 0 60 10 0.
901 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 FROM THE VANTAGE POINT OF SPACE WE CAN SEE THE LARGE UPPER LOW CROSSING SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND MINNESOTA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. EAST OF THIS WE FIND A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. AND A SMALLER UPPER LOW SPINNING EAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST. SURFACE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A WEAK STATIONARY TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA PLACING THE KEYS IN A VERY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN. THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DRIVE THE ANTICYCLONE OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGED BETWEEN THE LOWER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S BUT THE TN VALLEY IS WARMING UP NICELY ALREADY! PARTS OF NORTHEAST AL SAW DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND VISIBILITY DID FINALLY IMPROVE. WITH THE TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM IL INTO NORTHERN TX. STILL EXPECTING TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE PUSH OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SUNSHINE IN BETWEEN THE CLOUD COVER. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NW AND MOVE INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING PRODUCING A BROKEN LINE OF SHRA AND TSRA.
924 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY.
952 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING. AS THE 6 MB/3 HOUR PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ENTER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. REMAINDER OF THE HIGH WIND HEADLINE LOOKS GOOD. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 7 AM. BUT IN AN EFFORT TO KEEP MESSAGES SIMPLE DECIDED TO KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING GOING RATHER THAN CANCELING AND REPLACING WITH A WIND ADVISORY. BUT OF MORE IMPACT MAY BE THE HIGHER WINDS THEY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
747 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 AVIATION BREEZY AND MILD AGAIN TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS CLOUDS AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR SOME RAIN AND LOCALLY BREEZY WEATHER. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
ALSO SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS ALL THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE PRECIP ENTERING OUR NW COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE 00Z HOUR. BIG CHANGES WILL OCCUR TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM KANSAS CITY TO WEST OF GREEN BAY RACES SOUTHEAST AND CROSSES THE MID STATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
EXCEPT WHERE HITTING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN SW MN. A BIT MORE IN CLOUDIER AND COOLER NORTHEAST. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA THROUGH FARGO DOWN THROUGH MOBRIDGE. WINDS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS IN MOBRIDGE. WHICH PUT BUFFALO RIDGE REGION ON THE EDGE OF HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WILL REDUCE MIXING AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM ALOFT. BUT HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES WARMER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TILL THE WINDS DECREASE AND THE TEMPERATURES TUMBLE.
Cold front is making steady progress southward with an axis of 3-5mb/3hr pressure rises extending from western OK into northeast OK resulting in strong post frontal winds. The lower dewpoints and resulting humidity drop also coincide w/ the gusty winds producing conditions favorable for rapid fire spread of any wildfires.
THEN THE QUESTION IS WHETHER FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT OR WHETHER FOG WILL BE WORSE BEFORE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH.
A cold front will move into northern portions of the area after sunrise this morning, and is expected to be south of area TAF sites by early this afternoon. A dry cold front is continuing to march south thru the TX Panhandle. Latest HRRR and RAP13 High Resolution models bring the cold front into the Northern Permian Basin and Low Rolling Plains just after sunrise. The last time the low temperature at MAF dropped down to 50 or lower was April 30th! Ridging will be centered over the Southern Intermountain West this week with a dry northerly flow aloft and low level southwest downslope flow. The upper low that gave us the rain the end of last week will continue its circuitous route to the CA coast and then open into a wave by the weekend.
1222 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT FAVORS THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONGED. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS USUALLY BEST JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONTS.
401 AM PDT MON OCT 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.
BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AND NOTICING THE TROWAL ON THE UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH IS GETTING ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL POCKETS OF RAIN SHOWERS.
656 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 WITH NUMEROUS STRONG CYCLONES AFFECTING NORTH AMERICA UNDER AMPLIFIED FLOW. OUR WEATHER MAKER TODAY IS SHORT WAVE OR CLOSED LOW THAT IS DROPPING OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PASSING FORECAST AREA QUICKLY THIS MORNING BUT MAINLY MARKING DRIER AIR WHILE STRONGEST WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR IS LOCKED UP BACK TO THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE WAVE. PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MEAN UPPER TROUGH SET UP OVER EASTERN U.
1049 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
357 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
700 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER INDIANA INTO TONIGHT. BUT THEN BE SWEPT EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING A DRAMATIC WARM UP TODAY.
306 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015 UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ERN OKLA EXTENDS WWD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO SRN NM.
BROAD UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS VEERS WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL RESULT ON AN INCREASE OF SAHARA DUST ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND MAKING IT HAZE IN THE EARLY MORNING HRS.
310 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 20 LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TO BE A DEGREE OR SO COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. MODELS ALSO PROG A TAD MORE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/CIRRUS ACROSS S TX TODAY WHICH SHOULD ALSO KEEP MX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. A TAD MORE OVERALL MOISTURE ON WED SHOULD RESULT IN MX TEMPS BEING YET ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO COOLER.
247 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED TO OUR SW. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. WHILE BROAD RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE TRAVERSING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
400 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015 (Today and Tonight) Upper high pressure will be centered over Oklahoma through tonight with the forecast area along its southwestern periphery. Lows tomorrow morning will be in the lower to mid 70s.
UPSTREAM ENERGY SUPPORTS COOLER AND DRIER THAT WILL LAST INTO THIS WEEKEND.
159 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR THE MID WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE MID LEVELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE BEING FLATTENED BY SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALREADY THIS EVENING. THIS IS AHEAD OF A MUCH LARGER UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA/NCNTRL U. IT LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT ROUND WILL MOSTLY STAY BACK CLOSER TO THE LOW LEVEL FRONT AS FORCING AHEAD OF IT WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE.
320 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
208 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT EAST WINDS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
430 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER INDIANA INTO TONIGHT. BUT THEN BE SWEPT EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL LIFT ENE INTO WESTERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL FORCE A SHEARING/WEAKENING COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THIS TRANSITION. LOW CHANCES FOR WHAT IS LEFT OF UPSTREAM ELEVATED CONVECTION TO SPILL/SURVIVE SE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER TUESDAY NIGHT- WEDNESDAY MORNING WITHIN FOLDING THERMAL RIDGE. DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES FOR ISO-SCT THUNDERSTORMS (NEGLIGIBLE DEEP LAYER FORCING AND MORNING CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS LIMITING FACTORS) BY LATE MORNING-AFTERNOON ALONG THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT AND/OR PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/WEST COAST OF FL. /ISSUED 445 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015/ AS THIS PAST WEEKEND'S EASTERN GULF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTH, DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR HAS FILLED THE GAP COVERING THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH SUBTLE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARBY NORTH FLORIDA MUCH OF THIS WEEK, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR REGION, ENOUGH RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDLEVELS TO KEEP POPS MOSTLY BELOW 50 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. CONDS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND PALM BEACH COUNTY, SO THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL RESIDE.
COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND PUSHING EAST. FOCUS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR LATER TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING. TRIED TO CAPTURE THE HIGHER POPS EXPECTED NEXT 6 HOURS. EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WATCH EAST THROUGH THE CWA. MODELS DELAYED THE HIGHER WINDS ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. PULLING A TROUGH THROUGH THE FAR WESTERN UNITED STATES.
WARMER ACTUAL TEMPS WITH NO HEAT ADVISORY. AS THE PRESSURE COOKING RIDGE BACKS OFF OVER THE COMING DAYS. AS THE RIDGE BACKS OFF TO THE WEST. IT WILL ALLOW THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH TO EASE DOWN INTO THE AREA BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASE IN CHANCES OF SH/TS BY THE END OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
HAVE OPTED TO UPDATE THE FORECAST UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE MODELS ARE MOVING OUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ABOUT 4 TO 8 HOURS SLOWER THAN WHAT ACTUALLY APPEARS TO BE HAPPENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE ZONES.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION CURRENTLY. FORECAST HIGHS WILL REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S ON TUESDAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW AND MIDDLE 70S.
402 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015 AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE EARLY THIS AM. H7 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEG C COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE ARE FORECASTING. BUT A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER AND WE WILL BE CLIMB INTO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE HOT TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO KEEP STORMS FROM REACHING SEVERE LIMITS.
342 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL FORM AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
625 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
308 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015 UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY. UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN SOME LATE WEDNESDAY. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE A MODEST RETROGRADE. HOWEVER UPCOMING RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE DOESNT APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY COMPROMISED. SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK INTO THE AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FA BY LATER IN THE WEEK. MEAN RIDGE POSITIONING MAY STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST.
313 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA BRINGING A WARMING TREND WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES.
The synoptic pattern consists of a very potent upper low currently in eastern Montana rapidly moving north and east. Based on the higher resolution models indicating a few showers from this feature, decided to bump up pops slightly along the Canadian border. The warming trend begins with temperatures rebounding to the upper 70s to lower 80s today and continuing that trend overnight with temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than this morning.
SE MICHIGAN FIRMLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING AS THIS FEATURE PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION. AS DEWPOINTS CREEP UP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE TO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE OLD COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY BACK TO WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.
LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW THAN PAST FEW DAYS. /ISSUED 308 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/ UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY. UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN SOME LATE WEDNESDAY. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE A MODEST RETROGRADE. HOWEVER UPCOMING RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE DOESNT APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY COMPROMISED. SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK INTO THE AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FA BY LATER IN THE WEEK. MEAN RIDGE POSITIONING MAY STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST.
LOWER LEVEL RIDGING WITH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IS ALSO IN PLACE. FORECAST - THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LOWER LEVEL RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND AT TIMES VARIABLE DUE TO A WEAK RIDGE AXIS SITTING ACROSS THE KEYS.
SOME VALLEYS WILL EXPERIENCE MID TO UPPER 30S AT SUNRISE, WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. WARMER. HIGH PRESSURE AGGRESSIVELY BUILDS INTO NEVADA, WITH 5-10 DEGREES OF WARMING OVER TUESDAY'S READINGS. SOUTHWESTERN RIDGE WILL EXTEND NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE PERIOD.
422 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015 SURFACE TROF CENTERED OVERHEAD THIS AM.
QUITE A MUGGY EARLY MORNING WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S SO FAR.
THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHIFT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ALOFT ASSOCIATED TO THIS BROAD RIDGE IN PLACE. WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST GULF. WITH HIGH TEMPS FROM THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST.
NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER INDIANA INTO TONIGHT. BUT THEN BE SWEPT EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
155 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
359 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015 150+M HEIGHT FALLS FORECAST OVER SOUTHERN MAN AND ONTARIO FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG MT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD HUDSON BAY WILL DRAG A SFC COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA FOR THE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.
That feature may also interact with the low level jet to produce a few thunderstorms. Very little change to the going forecast this afternoon, with excessive heat expected to continue through mid week, before some relief arrives with the approach of a cold front. Starting out this afternoon, isolated thunderstorms have again developed over the eastern Ozarks, where large scale subsidence associated with the upper ridge doesn't appear to be quite strong enough to squash all updrafts. Cooler, and perhaps more notably, much drier air is then expected to build into the area Wednesday night, allowing lows to drop into the mid 60s for the first time in some time.
311 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015 Upper ridge centered over OK this morning will slide a little to the east as an upper trough swings across the Northern Plains. As the trough passes to the east the ridge will shift back to the west by this weekend becoming centered over the 4 corners region. Ridge remains in this location out through 240hrs.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTHWEST OF TAMPA BAY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH TODAY WITH BROAD WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ENTIRE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA.
330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
636 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 AVIATION ANOTHER SUNNY AND HOT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A PERIOD OF CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE LOWER LEVELS ALONG WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST MOVING IN. THIS COMBINED WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA BRINGING AN END TO ANY CONVECTION AND ALLOWING SOME CLEARING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WE COULD SEE A FEW POP UP STORMS ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.
626 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL FORM AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
Given that skies will continue to clear throughout the day, any clearing that takes place tonight will combine with the cooler- than-normal airmass currently over us to produce pockets of frost. Take measures ahead of time if you have any sensitive vegetation that could succumb to near-freezing temps tonight.
THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR EITHER ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE SHALLOW COOLER AIR.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL INITIALLY USHER IN MUCH HIGHER MOISTURE TUESDAY EVE AND CANT RULE OUT SOME INITIAL MVFR CIGS. A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY. WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA RESULTS IN SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.
447 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015 LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE OVER THE SRN CONUS PER THE LATEST WV IMAGERY AND UA ANALYSIS. OUR AREA CONTINUES UNDER AN ELY FLOW REGIME ALOFT ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE HIGH WITH DEEPER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE A FEW ISLTD SPOTS WHERE HEAT INDICES COULD EXCEED THE THRESHOLD OF 108 DEGREES DURING THE AFTN BUT THESE LOCALIZED SPOTS APPEAR TO COINCIDE WITH URBAN AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES TEND TO RUN A LITTLE WARMER AS A RULE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START EXPANDING WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK HELPING TO DRAW MONSOONAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.