Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Also, some marginal wind shear should be ending by 13z this morning, but may return after dark tonight as the low level jet kicks back in. Isolated thunderstorms expected to develop this afternoon and evening in unstable airmass along and ahead of surface trof/dryline which is expected to be positioned in western sections late this afternoon. Cold front makes an intrusion into at least northern part of forecast area on Friday, offering support for isolated to scattered thunderstorms Friday and Friday night.
Temperatures will fall into the lower to middle 60s by sunset outside of the Red River Valley with middle 60s to lower 70s within the valley.
It appears drier conditions will be in place for the lower elevations of central Idaho and much of west central Montana.
Main change was to reconfigure hourly PoPs a bit to highlight initial development along the ridges, where elevation will give convection an initial boost. Typical summertime weather will continue today under high pressure as diurnally-driven, scattered showers/storms return during the afternoon and evening hours.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): 500mb subtropical ridge across the central Gulf of Mexico will build westward across the western Gulf and south Texas tonight into Friday. The NAM and GFS prog a weak inverted 500mb trough moving across the western Gulf of Mexico Friday night but rain chances should remain well to the east and south of deep south Texas.
As the mid/upper level high shifts eastward more into Texas over the next few days that will result in a more southerly flow regime.
Another feature coming into play is the mid-level trough that slips southward over the weekend. Some of the guidance is still hinting at some sort of surface feature, at least a trough and possibly a low, could emerge. Benign boating conditions with high pressure dominating the weather pattern across South Florida with southeasterly wind through the weekend.
1108 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019 Currently - A weak inverted trough continues to track westward through our western waters. Winds are light northeast to the west of the trough and east to southeast east of the trough. Virtually all shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this trough has weakened and moved westward out of our forecast area. Short Term Update - The the broad inverted trough will continue to track slowly westwards into the Gulf of Mexico leaving the Keys on the far southwestern periphery of the Atlantic high. Will maintain slight chance for showers and thunderstorms with highs in the lower 90s. A lower level trough is exiting westward while the Atlantic high is off to the northeast.
Will continue to see these diurnally driven showers and storms throughout the afternoon when temperatures will top out in the low 90s. A broad ridge extends from the Four Corners to the Ohio Valley, with multiple MCSs ongoing across the Southern Plains. A weakened ridge will remain in place over the Lower Mississippi Valley through at least tomorrow. The main ridge axis will begin to retrograde west on Friday and put us on the eastern periphery of the ridge.
317 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019 The lower clouds across the area have nearly cleared out. Have taken a couple of degrees off the high this afternoon.
259 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2019 Eastern Utah and western Colorado will remain between a ridge of high pressure centered over the Panhandles area and broad low pressure over the northwestern U.
306 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019 A large upper level ridge will keep the region warm and humid for the rest of the week.
359 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019 Upper level analysis shows a ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico but its not completely solid over the central CONUS.
First off, sfc analysis shows high pressure centered just to our east over the cntl Gulf Coast region, while water vapor imagery/quicky 12z upper analysis shows a bit of a ridge axis essentially running up the lower MS Valley. Also nudged up afternoon temperatures a tad given 15z temps were already a few degrees warmer than inherited. Area will become increasingly under the influence of fair weather mid-level dry high pressure now over the central Gulf as it retrogrades slowly west.
VFR flying conditions are expected through evening as high pressure with much drier air has moved into the region. Showers and thunderstorms are not expected due to a strong ridging over the Gulf of Mexico and South Texas. Thunderstorms have exited the CWA this morning and now we settle back and let the deep ridging begin. More or less the same on Friday with afternoon temperatures a degree or so warmer.
Mid-level lapse rates will remain very weak across the region and the atmosphere stable with high pressure settling across the area. Ridging will build into the region through the period.
110 PM PDT Thu Jul 4 2019 Light winds and warm weather will give way to gusty winds and cooler temperatures for the end of the holiday weekend.
310 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019 Tonight and Friday: Southwesterly mid level flow pattern will continue to weaken with time as ridge from the northern Gulf of Mexico into the eastern Gulf Coast states drifts west. At the surface, high pressure, over southeast LA, will wobble around a bit, but keep westerly winds across the area through Friday. The deeper low and mid level westerly flow will bring in drier/warmer air aloft which will limit convective potential over much of the area.
Generally made minor updates to grids, upping PoPs along the ridges given radar trends. Typical summertime weather will continue today under high pressure as diurnally-driven, scattered showers/storms return during the afternoon and evening hours.
1254 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019 A fairly typical, although dry summer day is ongoing with midday temperatures around 90 with dewpoint temperatures mostly in the low to mid 70s. This drying has also contributed to a slight warming of the mid-levels with 700mb temperatures around 2F warmer than observed yesterday.
The upper level trough/shear axis gradually fills as the Subtropical Ridge begins to build over our area. Increasing subsidence and some drying under the building Ridge will inhibit shower and thunderstorm development, however, cannot rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm or two during peak heating on Friday.
Southwesterly flow aloft dominates our weather pattern as high pressure aloft is located from Chihuahua into West Texas. As the mid/upper level high shifts eastward more into Texas over the next few days that will result in a more southerly flow regime.
331 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019 A large upper level ridge will keep the region warm and humid for the rest of the week. Temperatures will be seasonably warm, with highs in the low to mid 80s for most locations.
222 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019 Upper level anticyclone has jutted northward across the area with ridge axis across western South Plains and Panhandle. Upper ridge axis expected to hold in place Friday as well, with low thunder again favoring western border area.
An upper level trough will move across the northern Great Basin today and push the associated cold front into west central Utah by evening. A zonal to weak ridge pattern will rebuild into the region for the weekend. Short wave energy is rotating around the base of the long wave trough that is located over western Idaho and PacNW. Have increased the PoPs across the north this afternoon into this evening up to 40% and this may still be on the low side. Winds at KSLC should remain northwesterly through mid afternoon with VFR conditions, as a cold front remains stalled south of the terminal.
Our benign weather pattern is evident by the dry southwesterly flow associated with the longwave trough along the west coast, as seen in the GOES-17 upper water vapor channel. High pressure will build back into the southwest through the week with H5 heights gradually increasing to the 592-594. However, the GEFS has been consistent the last several runs moving the upper high into a more favorable position for monsoonal moisture very late in the week.
215 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019 An upper level ridge of high pressure will be anchored across the forecast area the next seven days. Despite the presence of the ridge, low level moisture and weak upper level disturbances trapped within the ridge will locally weaken the ridge and produce the risk of isolated to widely scattered to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. With the persistent ridge in the area temperatures are expected to be above normal the next 7 days.
The most numerous and intense thunderstorms have been occurring mainly over the ridges to the east and southeast of Pittsburgh so far, with much of the activity tied to the terrain initially in the Flash Flood Watch area. Reduced PoPs a bit from PIT on southwest due to this limitation, but kept values higher on the ridges for ongoing activity, as well as to the north of the city with the possibility of better low level convergence/lake breeze- induced activity.
Otherwise, partly cloudy and warm with highs from 85 to 90 and lows tonight in the lower 70s.
Waves of low pressure aloft will interact with a warm, humid and unstable atmosphere and result in the threat for thunderstorms this weekend.
345 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019 Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure extending from the Appalachians to the cntl Gulf Coast region, providing for a moist srly low-level flow. Water vapor imagery continues to show a mid/upper-level ridge extending from the cntl/ern Gulf up through the Carolinas.
The high resolution models, as well as most of the latest models confine any showers and thunderstorms this afternoon to the eastern mountains.
308 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019 Currently - A broad inverted trough continues to work its way further westward through our western waters. Temperatures are climbing into the lower 90s with dew points in the mid 70s. A nebulous mid and upper level pattern along with broad lower level troughing remaining near our area does suggest somewhat above normal pops.
An upper level trough will move across the northern Great Basin late this afternoon and evening.
The lower clouds across the area have nearly cleared out. Have taken a couple of degrees off the high this afternoon.
Well-defined short wave trough with showers and thunderstorms moved from northeast Nevada this afternoon to southeast Idaho this evening, taking the showers and storms with it.
603 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019 A large upper level ridge will keep the region warm and humid for the rest of the week. Temperatures will be seasonably warm, with highs in the low to mid 80s for most locations.
04/18Z GFS20-CONUS model showing subtle upper level ridging influences building into mid state region as evening hrs progress.
With warm temperatures aloft and no larger scale forcing mechanisms seen upstream on water vapor satellite, will need some combination of convergence along the trough and heating to near convective temperatures in order for showers and storms to develop.
723 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019 A large upper level ridge will keep the region warm and humid for the rest of the week. Temperatures will be seasonably warm, with highs in the low to mid 80s for most locations.
652 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019 00Z TAFS SCT low level fair weather cu lifting north out of the gulf beneath an eastward advancing layer of high clouds will continue to dot the sky through the evening with the low level clouds dissipating around sunset. High pressure entrenched across a large part of the gulf of Mexico will keep winds generally light out of the south through the taf period. The highest likelihood of development will be at AEX, LFT and ARA. /issued 345 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019/ Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure extending from the Appalachians to the cntl Gulf Coast region, providing for a moist srly low-level flow. Water vapor imagery continues to show a mid/upper-level ridge extending from the cntl/ern Gulf up through the Carolinas.
802 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019 A large upper level ridge will keep the region warm and humid for the rest of the week. Temperatures will be seasonably warm, with highs in the low to mid 80s for most locations.
720 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019 A large upper level ridge will keep the region warm and humid for the rest of the week. Temperatures will be seasonably warm, with highs in the low to mid 80s for most locations.
518 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019 High pressure will remain across the region through Friday.
/DL/ Tonight and Friday: Southwesterly mid level flow pattern will continue to weaken with time as ridge from the northern Gulf of Mexico into the eastern Gulf Coast states drifts west. At the surface, high pressure, over southeast LA, will wobble around a bit, but keep westerly winds across the area through Friday. The deeper low and mid level westerly flow will bring in drier/warmer air aloft which will limit convective potential over much of the area.
(previous) Light S/SE flow regime ascd with developing Wrn Atlc ridge will lead to another day of boundary driven afternoon storms Fri.
1025 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019 Mean lower troposheric analyses from CIMMS place the core of an anticyclone over the northern Gulf Coast near Louisiana. The semi- permanent subtropical ridge normally centered near Bermuda is well displaced to the east. In between these two features, a broad inverted trough in the easterlies has carved out a void. Convection is lacking both ahead of and behind the low level axis. That is why we believe it really represents the lack of high pressure, and not really a bona fide easterly trough axis. Temperatures will fall into the lower 80s with dewpoints in the mid 70s.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 91 74 91 / 20 60 40 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 88 71 90 / 20 40 40 50 Oak Ridge, TN 71 89 73 90 / 20 50 50 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 86 68 88 / 30 50 50 50.
/issued 222 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019/ Upper level anticyclone has jutted northward across the area with ridge axis across western South Plains and Panhandle. Upper ridge axis expected to hold in place Friday as well, with low thunder again favoring western border area.
/issued 215 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019/ An upper level ridge of high pressure will be anchored across the forecast area the next seven days. Despite the presence of the ridge, low level moisture and weak upper level disturbances trapped within the ridge will locally weaken the ridge and produce the risk of isolated to widely scattered to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. With the persistent ridge in the area temperatures are expected to be above normal the next 7 days.
940 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019 A large upper level ridge will keep the region warm and humid for the rest of the week. Temperatures will be seasonably warm, with highs in the low to mid 80s for most locations.
The Flash Flood Watch for the higher elevations has been cancelled as thunderstorms have all but diminished over that region.
525 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2019 Eastern Utah and western Colorado will remain between a ridge of high pressure centered over the Panhandles area and broad low pressure over the northwestern U.
304 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019 WV imagery over the last 12 hours was showing little progression has occurred with a ridge situated over the eastern half of the CONUS with an upstream trough over the western half.
246 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2019 A large upper level ridge will keep the region warm and humid for the rest of the week. Temperatures will be seasonably warm, with highs in the low to mid 80s for most locations. Heat index values are expected to peak in the mid to upper 90s in the Lower Susquehanna Valley, which is just below heat advisory criteria (100+).
The IFR/low MVFR cigs should gradually lift/scatter out by mid to late morning Friday, with a sct cu field expected for the afternoon as upper level ridging builds over the region. /issued 944 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019/ A weak upper trough over Arkansas helped to sustain the development of isolated convection for much of the evening. Some minor edits were made to the low temperatures tonight based on the observed trends.
On Friday into Saturday, data is showing the system just to the northeast of the region, with a weak trough noted. Meanwhile, general ridging will occur from the southern Plains into southern/western Arkansas.
At the surface, the subtropical ridge over the open Atlantic extends into northern and central Florida, setting up weak southeasterly flow that will hold into the first half of the weekend. Deep moisture and intense surface heating will lead to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing over the Florida Peninsula during the late morning and early afternoon each day, with the highest rain chances generally along the Interstate 75 corridor during the late afternoon and evening with the sea breeze collision.
227 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019 The lower clouds across the area have nearly cleared out. Have taken a couple of degrees off the high this afternoon.
324 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019 The current upper pattern shows weak high pressure over Texas with a trough over the West Coast.
326 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019 Current observations show an MCS moving east across South Dakota, with weak surface ridging over southeast Saskatchewan. However, models are hinting that there may be some overlap of +1000 J/kg CAPE and +40 kts 0-6 km bulk shear along the Highway 12 corridor in far southwestern North Dakota late this afternoon, possibly yielding a strong to severe storm should something develop.
Latest meso-analysis depicts growing MLCAPE values of 2000-2500 J/Kg for the High Plains and into Albany County.
1129 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019 A large upper level ridge will keep the region warm and humid for the rest of the week. Temperatures will be seasonably warm, with highs in the low to mid 80s for most locations. Heat index values are expected to peak in the mid to upper 90s in the Lower Susquehanna Valley, which is just below heat advisory criteria (100+).
1143 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2019 Eastern Utah and western Colorado will remain between a ridge of high pressure centered over the Panhandles area and broad low pressure over the northwestern U.
223 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019 Ridging will continue through the short term with generally dry weather expected along with persistent heat and humidity.
The best chance for storms is Saturday afternoon as a cold front sags south through the region.
Upper trough will move through and we are expecting temps to jump up over the region through Saturday as weak short wave ridging builds in.
/issued 222 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019/ Upper level anticyclone has jutted northward across the area with ridge axis across western South Plains and Panhandle. Upper ridge axis expected to hold in place Friday as well, with low thunder again favoring western border area. Ridge still overhead yet on Saturday.
Slightly drier/cooler air filters into the area for Saturday with highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s and dewpoints in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
An upper- level low/trough dropping south and settling over PacNW will keep the region under drier SW flow aloft through the weekend. A persistent upper level trough remains in place.
We will cool off rapidly this evening as the sun sets with the drier air around, and we may end up a bit cooler even than last night with lows dropping into the middle 60s F for most. Look for highs to reach the lower 90s F for most areas. While being a bit warmer, we will still be below the seasonal averages for temperature, particularly apparent heat with heat index values only rising into the lower to mid 90s F compared to the seasonal average of around 100 F.
This synoptic trough will continue to shift across our region Today and Tonight. The only areas where any sort of surface based convection will probably remains to the north and west of our area (nw KS and NE CO), however a few isolated more elevated storms can't be ruled out as the trough moves dead center over the DDC area in the evening bringing some weak elevated MUCAPE with it. Extensive mid level cloudiness will have an impact on the overnight temperatures, especially across the lower plains eastern sections of our forecast area (warmer lows in the mid to upper 60s). Cooler air advection and longwave radiational cooling behind the trough should ensure cooler temperatures by Thursday morning in the 50s out west.
243 PM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021 A line of scattered showers, associated with an upper level trough, continues to track from west to east across the Northern Plains. Temperatures again trended cooler than normal today, both due to cloud cover and still some lingering high level smoke.
For this reason, slowed the surface heating over the next two hours with temps slowly rising through the low 70's. The showers and clouds over the northern areas will limit afternoon instability for convection, but the S Valley and Plateau are seeing more sunshine this morning, and this will allow for afternoon MLCAPE to build to over 1000 J/Kg down there beneath relatively steep mid-level lapse associated with the upper trough. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 87 69 87 69 / 20 10 10 30 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 87 67 88 68 / 20 10 10 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 64 87 66 87 67 / 20 10 10 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 85 62 87 66 / 20 20 10 20 20.
Latest analysis shows an upper level trough currently moving across the area, with a frontal boundary just off the SE and Gulf coast, with multiple areas of low pressure along the front. Additional storms are expected through this evening until the upper level trough axis moves off to the east late tonight.
619 PM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021 Widespread VFR conditions are expected as high pressure will continue to dominate. A weak wave of low pressure will approach the NW part of the state late in the period but no impacts are expected SHORT TERM.
The Northern Rockies is currently under a ridge that will begin to move out and be replaced by a trough of low pressure.
With dry air in the lower atmosphere these thunderstorms featured primarily gusty winds rather than heavy rain. Thursday will bring more thunderstorms as a Pacific upper low comes inland across Oregon.
Strong upper ridging continues to dominate the Southern Plains with low level flow not conducive for low level moisture return overnight. The exception to this is across our eastern third where 02z temps are some two to three degrees cooler than this time last night.
00Z TAF CYCLE Upper high centered over AZ at 23Z to push into wrn NM during the next 24 hrs.
High pressure over the Mississippi River Valley continues to slowly drift eastward this afternoon, as our old upper trough finally begins to lift out towards the northeast CONUS. This second upper trough is pushing a weak front into western Kansas, with southerly winds developing to the east as the surface pressure gradient strengthens. However MUCAPE below 500 will keep the intensity of these showers on the low side.
Early this evening: Surface analysis shows that high pressure continues to prevail inland with an elongated area of low pressure off the Southeast coast.
837 PM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021 Some showers/storms moving into north central sd this evening along with showers with the short wave trough in the east leaving the region through the rest the evening. A line of scattered showers, associated with an upper level trough, continues to track from west to east across the Northern Plains. Temperatures again trended cooler than normal today, both due to cloud cover and still some lingering high level smoke.
At 4 PM, a weak upper level trough stretched from the Dakotas to the Texas Panhandle. Lift associated with this trough was producing persistent cloud cover and a scattered shower activity over the Nebraska Sandhills. Ahead of the trough in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, surface winds were from the south, skies were partly cloudy and temperatures were in the lower 80s. Thursday: The trough will progress slowly through the region Thursday, and with diurnal heating we could see scattered shower and thunderstorm activity continue through the day.