Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Tonight through Monday night) Adequate moisture along with daytime heating has allowed a few showers and storms to develop over the coastal plains northward into the Highway 77 corridor this afternoon.
1224 PM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022 (The rest of today ) Latest surface analysis indicates low pressure centered over ern CO with a fairly tight pressure gradient across the Srn Plains. This morning's upper air analyses indicated mid/upper level high pressure centered over KS.
However, the GEFS and European model ensembles agree that the cutoff low will move North as it gets picked up by a trough. Both model ensembles also agree that a ridge over the Four Corners during the week will help move the trough. The combination of the building ridge and cutoff low results in a more southerly flow with an easterly tint which will start bringing moisture from the Gulf of California resulting in thunderstorms starting back up in the Sierra Nevada on Monday.
Should still be in the high PWAT airmass (near 2") along with decent SBCAPE of 2500+ J/kg.
The two main factors affecting the weather across the northern Rockies this week will be a ridge building back up over the region and a cut-off low centered off the coast of northern California. The cut-off low has been causing some uncertainty in the forecast because the models, even the ensembles, aren't handling the re-absorption of that low into the westerly flow well. This is pretty typical for cut-off lows. But before the thunderstorms return, the main threat will be heat under the ridge. As the ridge builds today and early this week, temperatures will really start to increase.
A stagnant high pressure regime continues aloft while the Bermuda High keeps the tap from the Gulf open with generally southerly sfc flow. Temps are not overly hot, but Valley dewpoints in the lower 70s will keep things muggy.
A more favorable flow pattern for daily thunderstorms will persist through this coming week as the upper high becomes centered over the Four Corners region. The second area is convection across the higher terrain of SEAZ moving to the W/NW. /issued 218 AM MST Sun Aug 7 2022/ An inverted trough approaching from the east was helping sustain the scattered showers and thunderstorms overnight/ early this morning. The inverted trough will continue to influence the thunderstorm potential through the day. Otherwise, models continued to depict a favorable flow pattern for daily scattered showers and thunderstorms through much of this coming week as the upper high sets up over the Four Corners region.
1224 PM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022 (Today and tonight) Broad upper level ridge will remain over our area today. 850 mb thermal ridge is slightly weaker compared to yesterday and with afternoon cloud cover the temperature may remain just below the century mark but it will be close.
201 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022 A weak upper trough will cause an increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage today with locally heavy rainfall possible.
The warm front has snuck just a touch farther north than expected leading to a little bit of low level shear along with somewhat lower LFC's. PWAT values still around 2 inches and the freezing level around 14500 ft AGL so warm rain processes likely which can lead to very heavy rainfall rates. Cooler and drier air will be in place on Monday with lighter winds which will be a welcome reprieve from the warm and humid air.
Surface analysis this afternoon places a cold front from the Great Lakes Region back through the Upper Midwest and Central Plains. Highs will be similar to Sunday mainly in the lower 90s.
Meanwhile, a ridge of high pressure will build over the western US as a closed low spins off of the California coast. The position of the ridge of high pressure is not favorable for widespread shower and thunderstorm development. However, enough residual moisture is available to generate afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms over the San Juan mountains and to a lesser extent, along the higher terrain along the Continental Divide today and Monday.
1248 PM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022 Summary: Cooler today, particularly near the Lake Superior shore. Drier Monday and a little warmer.
High pressure building into the eastern Dakotas overnight will bring light and variable winds. With clearing skies and light winds, temps will drop down into the low 50s with even some upper 40s possible overnight. Large scale ridging continues to dominate the upper flow pattern across much of the United States.
1010 AM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022 Made some minor tweaks to the forecast/grids, primarily to raise overnight lows and lower overnight max humidity in the mountains with amplified ridging moving over the region the next few days.
With only modest dinural warming taking place because of this and persistent northerly/northeasterly flow, daytime temps so far have largely topped out in the low-mid 60s.
650 PM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022 (Tonight) The upper low has moved east to near the MS River, with clusters of thunderstorms forming within the dry slot from NW AL into northwest middle TN. Overnight lows depending on the eventual high cloud canopy from today's storms, will be in the lower 70s. These could be warmer if clouds hang on tonight.
Sunny and calm conditions are expected the next few days as a strong upper-level high pressure system exerts influence on the region.
Winds will be out of the south eventually shifting to west/northwesterly behind passing cold front that should make it through all TAF sites by 18Z Monday. /Issued 235 PM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022/ A cold front was pushing southward across southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas. The severe threat should diminish by late this evening, but if thunderstorms can continue to generate on the cold front overnight, then they will likely bring areas of heavy rain. On Monday, the cold front is expected to be lingering in the southern Texas Panhandle, so again, this should provide a focus for added showers and thunderstorms through Monday night.
Modest low level northeasterly upslope flow converging along the Cheyenne Ridge with a tight CAPE gradient of 400 to 1000 j/kg was generating widely scattered thunderstorms as advertised by the CAM guidance.
00z surface analysis indicated low pressure centers over southwest KS and central IA. Currently, we have an upper high centered over the Central Plains and an upper wave moving east across the Dakotas. Later tonight, a few showers and perhaps some thunderstorms may redevelop across central IL ahead of an approaching cold front and in the vicinity of an 850 mb low level jet. The better chance will come with the cold front, which is expected to move from Galesburg late in the morning.
(Monday through Sunday) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday into mid-week as a cold front manages to move into the area Monday night and linger for a couple of days in a weakened state as the eastern periphery of the upper level ridge breaks down. The heat will return late in the week and into the weekend as the upper level ridge builds back over the region.
Dry high pressure residing from eastern ND and central SD will continue to expand across the area. The 500mb trough over central ND through the western half of SD this afternoon will shift across MN by 06Z.
High pressure building into the eastern Dakotas overnight will bring light and variable winds. With clearing skies and light winds, temps will drop down into the low 50s with even some upper 40s possible overnight. Large scale ridging continues to dominate the upper flow pattern across much of the United States. Added a mention of VCSH to KGFK, KTVF, and KBJI as showers continue to work from west to east along the Highway 2 corridor.
744 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022 Sunny and calm conditions are expected the next few days as a strong upper-level high pressure system exerts influence on the region.
Today and Tonight: A rather stagnant large-scale pattern will persist with upper low pressure spinning of NorCal and mid-level high pressure across the Four Corners and Desert Southwest. Seasonal temperatures will prevail for the coast and bays (highs in the 60s and 70s) with slightly cooler than average values farther inland (80s to lower 90s--outside of a few mid to upper 90s in far southern inland Monterey County). Minimal height/thermal changes in the low levels would argue for maintaining our rather deep (~2. Monday through Sunday: The upper low will gradually be drawn poleward by mid to late week as downstream ridging builds across the interior west. While residual troughing remains offshore, the upper ridge will exert more influence on our weather during this time. KSFO Bridge Approach.
806 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022 High pressure east of Bermuda will bring seasonable heat and isolated to widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the next several days.
705 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022 High pressure will prevail across the region through the week. A cold front could approach from the north by the end of this week. Lows will range from the lower-mid 70s inland with lower 80s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston. Deep Atlantic high pressure and weak upper flow will prevail through the short-term period. An upper low over Northern Florida will continue to shift south Monday. Highs will reach the upper 80s/low 90s Monday and will trend a couple of degrees warmer each day.
Otherwise, temperatures are running about 8-10 degrees warmer than 24hrs ago as of 900 PM. Temperatures are 10-15 degrees warmer than this time yesterday, with dewpoints running very close to yesterday evening's values. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 89 73 88 72 / 10 60 30 70 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 89 72 87 72 / 0 50 20 70 40 Oak Ridge, TN 70 88 72 86 71 / 0 50 20 70 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 87 69 86 68 / 10 50 20 70 30.
634 PM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022 Key Points: - A cold front will move into the area tonight bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms and cooler temperatures to start off the workweek. This axis of hot temperatures corresponds nicely with the placement of the 850-700 mb thermal ridge axis ahead of an approaching cold front. The upper-level ridge is directly over the region as noted in current water vapor imagery. This feature will bring a cold front into our area late tonight accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. Cooler temperatures will move in behind the front and with several reinforcing waves moving through the flow, temperatures should hover around normal readings for much of the week. Cold frontal passage and low clouds will be the focus for this forecast.
626 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022 Scattered thunderstorms, favoring the afternoon to evening hours, are expected daily until a mid-week cold front ushers in cooler, drier air ahead of the weekend. Convection is relatively slow-moving, and capable of localized heavy rain owing to a large part of CAPE in the above-freezing layer, leading to warm-rain processes and efficient liquid water production. The region remains wedged between high pressure to the southeast and a weak trough over the Great Lakes, which is helping to maintain the funneling of moist Gulf air into the region. Jet-induced ascent with this trough should create a focused area for convection north of Pittsburgh, while also providing faster eastward storm mean flow.
604 PM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022 (This evening through Monday) Cirrus will continue to enter our area from the east near the nose of an upper jet, as a retrograding upper closed low on the southern fringe of an upper high enters AR. Late tonight to near sunrise, a cold front will approach the northern OK border. As the front sags southward a bit throughout the day, and the upper low continues to progress westward, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop.
715 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022 Scattered thunderstorms, favoring the afternoon to evening hours, are expected daily until a mid-week cold front ushers in cooler, drier air ahead of the weekend. Convection is relatively slow-moving, and capable of localized heavy rain owing to a large part of CAPE in the above-freezing layer, leading to warm-rain processes and efficient liquid water production. The region remains wedged between high pressure to the southeast and a weak trough over the Great Lakes, which is helping to maintain the funneling of moist Gulf air into the region. Jet-induced ascent with this trough should create a focused area for convection north of Pittsburgh, while also providing faster eastward storm mean flow.
529 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022 Upper trough has exited the area, with clearing skies gradually building from west to east. Upper ridging axis will sit across the northern Rockies, ahead of a stationary upper low off the NW Pac coast.
1017 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022 High pressure will prevail across the region through the week. A cold front could approach from the north by the end of this week. Deep Atlantic high pressure and weak upper flow will prevail through the short-term period. An upper low over Northern Florida will continue to shift south Monday. Highs will reach the upper 80s/low 90s Monday and will trend a couple of degrees warmer each day.
A subtropical ridge remains parked off the Mid-Atlantic states with an axis draped southwest into the northern Gulf coast. An inverted trough and associated upper level low is moving west into central and northern Florida. Given this features position from the Florida Keys, it is no surprise that our wind flow through almost the lowest 6 km is unidirectional. Strong subtropical ridge remains anchored well to our north and will maintain moderate breezes through the overnight and into Monday.
739 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022 An upper level low will pass by to the south on Monday, supporting lots of clouds and plentiful afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.
613 PM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022 Dry high pressure residing from eastern ND and central SD will continue to expand across the area. The 500mb trough over central ND through the western half of SD this afternoon will shift across MN by 06Z.
An upper ridge will bring another very warm day on Monday, especially for the interior.
A deep marine layer will keep clouds along the coast with slightly cooler than average temperatures along inland valleys.
High pressure will lead to mostly sunny skies on Monday with highs in the seventies for most. A western upper ridge will build north Monday into Tuesday as an upper low moves toward the West Coast. This ridge will keep most areas dry into late week. A cold front will slide through the region late Tuesday into Tuesday night.
A front will begin to sag southward through TN on Tuesday and we could potentially see a few showers/storms with a west to east movement across the far north, while most everyone else will continue to see the east to west movement associated with the inverted trough.
Highs will top out in the lower 80s today, and rise to the mid to upper 80s on Tuesday. A ridge will build over the southwestern CONUS, diverting rainfall around the Central Plains.
1120 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022 Upper trough has exited the area, with clearing skies gradually building from west to east. Upper ridging axis will sit across the northern Rockies, ahead of a stationary upper low off the NW Pac coast.
Light stratiform precipitation is all that remains of a very active monsoon day for areas along and south of the high terrain.
temps should also be a few deg cooler as well due to additional cloud cover.
346 AM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022 High pressure will prevail across the region through mid week. A cold front could approach from the north by the end of the week. Temperatures are expected to peak in the lower 90s across SE GA to the upper 80s across the SC Lowcountry. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the low 70s inland to the upper 70s along the coast.
257 AM MDT Mon Aug 8 2022 The elongated upper level ridge is in place across southern Colorado with the remnants of a disturbance lifting northeast.
Lows will be in the low/mid 70s inland to upper 70s along the coast.
Sunrise temperatures should be in the low to middle 70s. We should see highs tomorrow in the low to middle 90s with heat indices between 100 and 105. Temperatures will turn cooler on Tuesday. /issued 624 PM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022/ Surface analysis this afternoon places a cold front from the Great Lakes Region back through the Upper Midwest and Central Plains.
A favorable flow pattern for daily thunderstorms will persist through the week as the upper high remains centered near the Four Corners region. The inverted trough that aided in the development of thunderstorms last evening and overnight was passing over the northern Gulf of California. Otherwise, the upper high will remain near the Four Corners region this week.
142 AM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022 High pressure east of Bermuda will bring seasonable heat and isolated to widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the next several days.
Otherwise, hot and dry conditions continue as the upper ridge suppresses most shower and thunderstorm development.
Sfc ridging will remain in place to the southeast of the area with H500 ridging encompassing much of the southern and western US. An accompanying sfc cold front will begin to approach as well, helping to produce more widespread rain and thunderstorms on Tuesday. Temperatures will be cooler and some locally heavy rainfall amounts are possible.
322 AM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected today as a cold front tracks south through the area. As of 730Z, the cold front has moved to between Falls City, NE and St. With the upper high still overhead but in a weakened state, mid and upper-level flow remains quite weak. The upper ridge will restrengthen over the Rockies later in the week. Models have trended toward keeping that ridge axis further west which will help keep the hottest temperatures further west with it. The GFS is slightly further west with the ridge axis while the ECMWF is further east with the ridge axis into the Plains leading to a warmer and drier forecast. Cold frontal passage and low clouds will be the focus for this forecast.
308 AM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022 Key Messages: - Cooler temperatures today and Tuesday. - Upper level high builds back into the area for the latter half of the week. Further north within the moisture plume on the northern periphery of the upper high an area of convection was occurring from eastern Colorado into northeast Nebraska. Cooler temperatures are also expected today with clouds and northerly winds north of the front expected. As the upper high retrogrades westward a northwesterly flow aloft develops and some minor PV anomalies may also move southeast across central into southeast Kansas.
00z surface analysis indicated low pressure centers over southwest KS and central IA. Currently, we have an upper high centered over the Central Plains and an upper wave moving east across the Dakotas. Later tonight, a few showers and perhaps some thunderstorms may redevelop across central IL ahead of an approaching cold front and in the vicinity of an 850 mb low level jet. The better chance will come with the cold front, which is expected to move from Galesburg late in the morning. Following the cold front, temperatures will be a bit below normal, with highs around 80 for Tuesday.
335 AM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022 An approaching cold front will trigger scattered thunderstorms across central Illinois today. 08z/3am surface analysis shows a cold front extending from Lake Superior southwestward to near Kansas City.
(Today through Tuesday) The center of the Subtropical Ridge remains off to our northwest today as south to southeasterly lower level flow off the Gulf of Mexico prevails. The Ridge builds a little over our area on Tuesday.
137 AM MDT Mon Aug 8 2022 Strengthening high pressure aloft will dominate our weather in the short-term period.
At the surface, high pressure covers the Dakotas. A hot and mostly dry week is in store, as the upper ridge strengthens over the Rockies.
137 AM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022 High pressure will prevail across the region through the week. A cold front could approach from the north by the end of this week. Deep Atlantic high pressure and weak upper flow will prevail through the short-term period. An upper low over Northern Florida will continue to shift south Monday. Highs will reach the upper 80s/low 90s Monday and will trend a couple of degrees warmer each day.
1106 PM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022 Key Points: - A cold front will move into the area tonight bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms and cooler temperatures to start off the workweek. This axis of hot temperatures corresponds nicely with the placement of the 850-700 mb thermal ridge axis ahead of an approaching cold front. The upper-level ridge is directly over the region as noted in current water vapor imagery. This feature will bring a cold front into our area late tonight accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. Cooler temperatures will move in behind the front and with several reinforcing waves moving through the flow, temperatures should hover around normal readings for much of the week. Cold frontal passage and low clouds will be the focus for this forecast.
An upper level high pressure system over the Four Corners will continue to strengthen amplifying a ridge across the Northern Rockies. Increasing heights and subsidence aloft are going to warm temperatures in the High Plains. Warmer temperatures are going to blend across the border into western North Dakota aided by down sloping southwesterly winds. A weak cold front is forecast to move through the region Tuesday. The front will bring cooler temperatures to the northern portion of the state, but the southern portion will remain warm. Compressional heating ahead of the front could warm temperatures across the south into the lower to mid 90s.
and Tuesday Another round of moderate to heavy rain will make its way through northeast Wisconsin during the morning hours as a low pressure system passes to the south. Precipitation will end from west to east throughout the morning, with dry weather expected this afternoon as the aforementioned low pulls the stalled out front across southern Wisconsin east and high pressure builds into the region from the west. As the low pulls off to the east, a tight pressure gradient and northerly winds will bring cooler temperatures and lower dew points into the region later this morning and into the afternoon. High pressure will build in across the western Great Lakes region tonight, then slide to the south on Tuesday. The high will keep the weather dry tonight and Tuesday with cool conditions persisting tonight.
247 AM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022 Dry high pressure remains over the east today at the sfc. Upper ridging begins to build in today, but heights really climb on Tuesday. Return flow on Tuesday and the amplifying ridge will push highs into the upper 80s to upper 90s. The only other point of concern will be the chance for some early morning fog with the low dewpoint depressions and corn fueled sfc level moisture. Starting off Tuesday night, an upper ridge will be centered across the Central Rockies. Northwesterly flow aloft across our region will have helped to push a cold front through the area.
356 AM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022 Key Messages: - Cooler, drier air mass to begin the work week - Mostly dry through the work week Today and Tuesday: Rather progressive precipitation has been shifting across the forecast area overnight, expected to exit to the east this morning.
This dry air is rounding the south to southwestern periphery of the ridge that extends across the southeastern United States. This ridging is maintaining generally moderate breezes across the coastal waters this morning, with marine observation platforms recording winds of 10 to 15 knots across the reef. High pressure centered in the western North Atlantic will maintain moderate breezes through tonight. The core of this smaller feature will pass through the western waters, which is where the higher rain chances will be.
Temperatures remain warm, but seasonal today as 90s will be the majority of high temps this afternoon with 100+ reserved for the lower RGV.
(Today) The combination of a weakening mid-level ridge and increasing deep layer moisture will yield increasing shower and storm chances today.