Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
DDV (Issued 230 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022) Tonight through Sunday night: A cold front will swing through the area tonight. Once the cold front moves through there will be a period of caa that'll persist into Sunday. With low pressure strengthening to our east into Sunday night the cold advection/low level thermal trough will be amplifying across the area.
737 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 High pressure will lead to dry weather this weekend.
642 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Northwesterly flow aloft persists across the area driven by an upper level low over the Great Lakes region extending a trough across most of the eastern CONUS. Another low is making its way across the desert Southwestern United States, and high pressure is moving across the northwestern United States. At the surface, northwesterly winds are moving into the area extending from high pressure diving southeast across Alberta/Saskatchewan into the north central Plains, and that is what is bringing gusts this afternoon into the 20 to 30 mph range. The main story will be the high extending further south, advecting cold air further into the area. As the high shifts over, northwesterly winds will increase to around 15-20 mph.
611 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Breezy and mild weather is expected across central Illinois on Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front.
937 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 High pressure will provide dry and cool weather tonight.
925 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 High pressure will build in through the weekend.
750 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2022 High pressure will provide dry and cool weather tonight.
146 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Dry high pressure will reside over the area through the weekend.
Otherwise, mostly quiet weather is expected under high pressure.
A strong ridge of high pressure will then build over Wyoming and bring some of that aforementioned perfect October weather.
1144 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Breezy and mild weather is expected across central Illinois on Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. 00z surface map indicated a cold front to our northwest, bisecting IA from northeast to southwest. The partly to mostly cloudy skies will combine with a light southwest gradient flow to keep lows several degrees warmer than last night, in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Partial cloud cover and light W/SW winds will keep low temperatures tonight several degrees warmer than they were last night. A cold front currently over the Northern Plains will swing through the region late tonight into Sunday morning: however, the colder airmass lingers well behind the actual wind-shift.
(Today through Monday) Cold front moves through today with showers and thunderstorms. Afternoon highs today will still be warm and pleasant ranging from the middle 60s for the plateau to the lower 70s thanks to the southerly winds. All locations across Middle TN will be below freezing with most places in the middle to upper 20s.
Overall large scale pattern remains the same with water vapor imagery revealing a deeply amplified trough extending from Canada into the southeastern states.
423 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Dry high pressure will reside over the area today. A cold front with limited moisture will move through the forecast area Monday afternoon or evening.
Together these will aid high temperatures only reaching the low to mid 40s. Temperatures overnight will be similar to Sunday's lows, with the northwest flow and near freezing 850mb temperatures again.
The dominant feature for the short term is a high-amplitude blocking ridge currently over southern British Columbia. The upper high at the center of the ridge will slowly drift southeastward through the next couple of days resulting in a continuation of fair weather with warm daytime highs-- around 10 to 15 degrees above normal, and lows at or just above normal.
(Today and tonight) Cold front will continue to shift south through southern Oklahoma into north Texas this morning as the first of a couple of cooler airmasses overspreads the southern Plains. Along with the rain chances shifting south, much cooler temperatures are expected as the cooler air filters south behind the cold front. Some lingering showers will continue across western north Texas Sunday night, otherwise cooler and drier conditions expected.
110 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 High pressure will continue the dry and tranquil weather for the remainder of this weekend. A cold front, accompanied with widely scattered showers, will move through Monday night.
Rainfall and cooler temperatures on the way. A cold front will be moving south across the area today, reaching the Abilene area around mid morning, the Concho Valley and Heartland by early afternoon and the I-10 corridor by late afternoon. Meanwhile, a closed upper low currently over southern Arizona, will track eastward across New Mexico and into West Texas as it weakens Sunday night into Monday. High temperatures today will range from the lower to mid 70s across the Big Country, to the low to mid 80s across far southern sections prior to frontal passage. Temperatures will fall behind the front this afternoon and by sunset will range from the low to mid 60s across the Big Country, to the upper 60s and lower 70s elsewhere.
1234 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 (This evening through Sunday) Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected tonight and tomorrow as a strong cold front approaches the CWA from the north and then sweeps south through West Texas. Rain is expected to form in two general areas tonight; one in southeast New Mexico forming under a corridor of stronger upper level winds and the other along the approaching cold front in the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle. After the passage of the cold front, strong deep-layer isentropic ascent will overtake the CWA and allow for continued precipitation through the end of Sunday afternoon.
1151 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 (Rest of tonight) The local forecast area will remain under the influence of broad scale cyclonic flow aloft overnight, to the south of an upper low over eastern Ontario. Temps will be a bit warmer compared to previous nights, with lows ranging from the mid 50s (SE) to u50s-l60s (NW).
Under cold Canadian high pressure, temperatures will only recover into the 40s Monday, though with light winds at least the fire weather threat will be marginalized.
404 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Weak high pressure will build over the area today. A strong cold front will cross the area Monday. High pressure builds in from the west through mid-week before settling off to the south. A few morning showers are possible east of I-95, but the main story will be the strong cold front that is expected to cross the area during the afternoon and bring the coldest air of the fall season so far. Then, strong height falls and cyclonic vorticity advection will overspread the area Monday night as anomalous upper level trough over the Great Lks drops south.
Currently, air temperatures in Keys island communities range from the lower 80s to the upper 70s where rain is falling. An upper-level composite analysis this morning reveals a deep layer mean anticyclone centered over Mexico, with a large-scale upper trough over the western North Atlantic. At the surface, a high pressure cell was centered over Georgia, with low-level northeast to east flow across the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters.
340 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 The main impactful weather this week will be sub freezing conditions the next several nights. Highs today will be 10 to 20 degrees cooler than yesterday as a deep trough over the eastern CONUS advects in colder/drier air from the north. Temperatures are still expected to dip near/below freezing across the area tonight.
1204 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 (This evening through Sunday) Strong to marginally severe storms are expected to develop north of I-40, along a cold front that is slowly moving southward. Steep mid-level lapse rates will help foster moderate CAPE values this afternoon ahead of the slowly-advancing cold front. High temperatures tomorrow afternoon behind the cold front will be in the upper 60s for most of the area, as cloudy skies will likely stick around through the day.
Satellite loops show the upper-level low pressure system that brought isolated showers in the Tehachapi Mountains earlier today moving eastward over Northern Baja California, and this feature will continue to move inland over the Desert Southwest through today. For the middle of the week, expect another warmup as high pressure rebuilds over the Western U.
1047 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 High pressure centered over the southwest corner of Indiana will gradually weaken and drift east over the next 12 hours. Meanwhile, an upstream short wave which is currently moving south through the Upper Midwest will continue its dive and phase up with another wave moving through the High Plains. The combined wave will push a cold front through Missouri and Illinois late tonight into Sunday morning. The front initially hangs up over the Ozarks Sunday morning, and deterministic guidance shows weak to moderate moisture convergence above it at 850mb due to southerly flow on the western side of the ridge over the Southeast U.
As an upper level low continues to churn over Ontario, north- northwesterly flow aloft remains in place over the northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure is expected to begin to build into the region as well. As a result of persistent CAA at the surface and aloft, as well as cloud cover attributed to the upper low, high temperatures today will only reach the 30s to low 40s across the region. With high pressure building in, winds should begin to lessen moving into Monday with cloud cover becoming less prominent as the upper low gradually translates eastward.
On the surface, a cold front will move across the cwa this morning. However, by tonight, as h8 temps fall below 0c, we'll see lake effect showers develop thanks to deep moisture and lake delta t/s in the lower 20s. The warmer water over the lake will create MUCAPE in the 100-300 j/kg range and so thunder is a possibility over the lake and the lake shore counties.
304 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Key Messages: - rain/snow shower chances for west central Wisconsin today and tonight - Unseasonably cool through much of upcoming week with little to no precipitation chances * Today: Cooler, shower chances into central Wisconsin The cold front has pushed completely through the forecast area, but today will be nearly similar to yesterday but cooler. Further upstream, yet again, there is another short wave trough targeting the region. Plenty of cold air advecting into the region will help destabilize the lower atmosphere. Wet bulb temperatures holding above freezing supports the main precipitation type as rain during the day with the snow chances not mixing in until this evening. Temperatures at 850 mb decrease to anomalously low values (-10 C) with ensemble guidance being in the lowest 0.
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1239 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 (This afternoon through Sunday night) Tonight through Sunday night, an upper level low will be moving across Baja Mexico and into Arizona, with strong moisture advection ahead of the low and isentropic lift bringing scattered to numerous showers and storms into the region tonight through Sunday morning.
500 mb analysis shows upper ridging centered over the Pacific Northwest and ridging over the midwest, putting our area under northerly flow. Today will be cool with seasonably breezy northerly winds as a high pressure system passes off to our north. The upper level pattern looks to be fairly stagnant for the next few days as the upper low meanders over the Great Lakes region and Ontario. The upper ridge will slowly drift eastward, the axis staying over the Rockies and keeping our area under northerly flow.
An upper level low near Yuma, AZ this morning will continue to shift eastward across Arizona into New Mexico through Monday.
1042 PM MDT Sat Oct 15 2022 The CWA remained wedged between a deep expansive upper trough over the eastern CONUS and high amplitude upper ridge to the west. Northwest winds will be breezy at times over the high plains Sunday afternoon. More widespread freezing temperatures are forecast east of the Laramie Range Sunday night with minima from 26F to 32F. Most of these zones have already experienced freezing temperatures. A warming trend commences Monday as the upper ridge to the west shifts east toward the CWA. 700mb temperatures will moderate to 2C to 6C in afternoon, yielding highs in the low to mid 60s. Subfreezing temperatures are forecast once again Monday night east of Interstate 25. Quiet weather expected for the work week as a somewhat anomalous 500 mb high pressure center sits over eastern Idaho/western Wyoming through mid-week.
146 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Heights will continue to build in the short-term, bringing in warmer temperatures and continued quiet weather. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees warmer than normal by Monday.
1154 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022 Currently, broad troughing exists from mid-America through the eastern CONUS. Meanwhile, a cut-off low continues to dwell over Baja.
An upper level ridge slowly pushes eastward entering the Central Plains.
As the upper low, located near the SE Cal / SW AZ border as of 3 AM, begins its trek towards the region, large-scale ascent will begin to increase.
Temperatures were 10-15 degrees above normal today and will be again on Sunday as the upper ridge axis moves in from the coast. An upper ridge will dominate through the period and provide continued dry weather and above-normal temperatures.
625 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 (Today through Monday) Cold front moves through today with showers and thunderstorms. Afternoon highs today will still be warm and pleasant ranging from the middle 60s for the plateau to the lower 70s thanks to the southerly winds. All locations across Middle TN will be below freezing with most places in the middle to upper 20s.
The low clouds are still over the eastern part of the forecast area, these should clear out by late morning. Together these will aid high temperatures only reaching the low to mid 40s. Temperatures overnight will be similar to Sunday's lows, with the northwest flow and below freezing 850mb temperatures again.
(Rest of Today) Light showers can be seen on radar ahead of a cold front currently pushing south through southern MO and into TN. Expect the rain to remain just to our north as the steering flow is predominantly westerly to the south of the trough axis. Moisture convergence will increase ahead of the cold front later this afternoon and evening, and have tweaked PoPs up slightly along the AL/TN border. Have maintained the highest PoPs (50%) across southern middle TN around and just after sunset, with a few rumbles of thunder possible.
740 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Mostly quiet weather is expected under high pressure today.
Conditions remaining mostly sunny and dry today thanks to an area of high pressure situated just northeast of the Florida peninsula. (12Z TAFS) VFR conditions through the period due to an area of high pressure situated northeast of the Florida peninsula.
311 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2022 MORNING DISCUSSION: An upper level trough will park over the intermountain west for most of this week, bringing dry conditions across the region.
Also, some strong winds are expected as a cold front moves through the area. Highs will be drastically cooler today and Monday, ranging from the 60s across SE New Mexico and the Permian Basin, 70s and 80s across much of the rest of the region, including Highway 90.
With a cold front still working through southeast Oklahoma, will keep small chances of showers and storms in the forecast for today across portions of southeast Oklahoma.
Together these will aid high temperatures only reaching the low to mid 40s. Temperatures overnight will be similar to Sunday's lows, with the northwest flow and below freezing 850mb temperatures again.
645 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Dry high pressure will reside over the area today. A cold front with limited moisture will move through the forecast area Monday afternoon or evening.
The main impactful weather this week will be sub freezing conditions the next several nights. Highs today will be 10 to 20 degrees cooler than yesterday as a deep trough over the eastern CONUS advects in colder/drier air from the north. Temperatures are still expected to dip near/below freezing across the area tonight.
520 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Key Messages: - rain/snow shower chances for west central Wisconsin today and tonight - Unseasonably cool through much of upcoming week with little to no precipitation chances * Today: Cooler, shower chances into central Wisconsin The cold front has pushed completely through the forecast area, but today will be nearly similar to yesterday but cooler. Further upstream, yet again, there is another short wave trough targeting the region. Plenty of cold air advecting into the region will help destabilize the lower atmosphere. Wet bulb temperatures holding above freezing supports the main precipitation type as rain during the day with the snow chances not mixing in until this evening. Temperatures at 850 mb decrease to anomalously low values (-10 C) with ensemble guidance being in the lowest 0.
the forecast area is in between a large upper level low over the Great Lakes area and an upper level high over Idaho. High temperatures are expected to range from the upper 50s to around 60 across the eastern part of the area to the lower and middle 60s across far eastern Colorado. There is a possibility of cloud cover in the 850-700 and/or 700-500mb layer moving down and across the eastern part of the forecast area which would likely impact the low temperature forecast (by being not as cold).
Northern and central Nevada will continue to sit under a blocking pattern.
Issued by National Weather Service Tulsa OK 633 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 (Today and tonight) Cold front will continue to shift south through southern Oklahoma into north Texas this morning as the first of a couple of cooler airmasses overspreads the southern Plains. Along with the rain chances shifting south, much cooler temperatures are expected as the cooler air filters south behind the cold front. Some lingering showers will continue across western north Texas Sunday night, otherwise cooler and drier conditions expected.
404 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Today through tonight: the highly amplified upper level pattern responsible for the upcoming early season frost/freeze event will be taking shape as we finish up the weekend. A highly anomalous upper trough digging southward across eastern North America will send a cold front southward into the forecast area tonight, and there should be just enough moisture to support a few showers along/west of the Mississippi River. Otherwise, expect another dry, warm day preceding the front with readings topping out in the low to mid 80s this afternoon. /EC/ Monday: A cold front will push southeastward across the area during the day Monday, with scattered sprinkles and light showers expected. The northerly breeze will begin to make conditions cooler by the afternoon, heading into a cold overnight.
635 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Today through tonight: the highly amplified upper level pattern responsible for the upcoming early season frost/freeze event will be taking shape as we finish up the weekend. A highly anomalous upper trough digging southward across eastern North America will send a cold front southward into the forecast area tonight, and there should be just enough moisture to support a few showers along/west of the Mississippi River. Otherwise, expect another dry, warm day preceding the front with readings topping out in the low to mid 80s this afternoon. /EC/ Monday: A cold front will push southeastward across the area during the day Monday, with scattered sprinkles and light showers expected. The northerly breeze will begin to make conditions cooler by the afternoon, heading into a cold overnight.
However, cloud cover should limit surface heating and subsidence on the west side of the low will not help convection much. Few clouds can be expected tonight and Monday and tranquil weather will return to the entire region under a ridge of high pressure over centered over the Great Basin and Northern Intermountain Region.
416 AM PDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Coastal stratus is currently covering the coast and some of the coastal valleys this morning as the thermal trough retreats farther inland. Temperatures will trend a little cooler today as the overall flow pattern changes to more southerly into the late afternoon and evening ahead of the next approaching low. There will be a warm front pushing towards the area later tonight into Monday morning. One may even see some high clouds move into the area as this warm front appraisees. By Monday morning, not much will really change as the upper level low to our west stalls out as it hits the strong ridge to our east. We'll see a disorganized flow pattern persist over the area as temperatures remain on the warmer side, although relatively cooler than what we observed yesterday.
Upper heights fell slightly across the southern Florida peninsula with 250 mb analysis indicating broad troughing off the east coast and a more zonal west-northwest flow across the southeast U. Lower tropospheric ridging is centered to our north. The 850 mb ridge is expected to progress a bit to the east, allowing the shallow steering flow to become more east. High pressure over the southeastern United States will shift eastward and weaken tonight through Monday.
The eastward transit of high pressure off the southeast U. coast was allowing lower tropospheric winds to becoming more southeasterly, while remaining disconnected from the west to northwest flow 700-500 mb as mid level high pressure continued over the south central to west central Gulf of Mexico. While the Lower Keys had exited the cloudy and rainy skies early this morning, the highly-sheared convective cells further up the Keys would provide a quick heavy downpour with gusty winds with a slow trailing off of rainfall. The slow pivit with dry air drifting slowly down the southeast Florida coast versus the slow northward drift up the west coast as the lower tropospheric high moves east seems to offer little change for tonight's weather in the Keys.
The cold front is still edging into our northern most counties, while this outflow boundary has shifted winds to NE all along and south of I-20 from near Jacksonville TX to Mansfield and Monroe LA. Current readings under the clouds and what rain we have seen are in the mid to upper 60s with highs perhaps in the bag or maybe back into the lower 70s. Elsewhere, already warmer 70s can still be found along I-20 and especially in our areas to the south. A mix of sun and clouds will allow for warmer readings into the afternoon. A large upper trough will remain anchored across the Great Lakes with upper ridging noted across the Pacific Northwest.
1230 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 (Rest of Today) Light showers can be seen on radar ahead of a cold front currently pushing south through southern MO and into TN. Expect the rain to remain just to our north as the steering flow is predominantly westerly to the south of the trough axis. Moisture convergence will increase ahead of the cold front later this afternoon and evening, and have tweaked PoPs up slightly along the AL/TN border. Have maintained the highest PoPs (50%) across southern middle TN around and just after sunset, with a few rumbles of thunder possible.
Cliff MORNING DISCUSSION: An upper level trough will park over the intermountain west for most of this week, bringing dry conditions across the region.
215 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 (Issued 215 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022) Tonight through Monday night: Pesky showers wrapping southeast through the area with left front quad of jet rounding mid/upper trough along with some 700 millibar baroclinicity. Although, admittedly, confidence has waned a bit especially given latest the aforementioned cloud trends and some of the latest temp guidance that suggests the freezing temps would ooze in from the northwest and duration of any freeze may end up being quite short.
A blocking pattern will keep high pressure in control throughout the short-term period.