Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 223 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/ Current radar and satellite is showing convection already developing in the higher elevations from the Davis Mountains north to the Guadalupe Mountains.
742 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 Upper level ridge rebuilds for mid week.
Rather weak surface features of a ridge north and broad low relative low pressure south will keep light throughout.
There is a weak upper trof now over the midwest that will continue to move east overnight. However with weak ridging/subsidence across the TN valley, not expecting any pcpn overnight.
731 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 SE Michigan airspace will remain under the influence of a dry and stable high pressure system through this TAF period. Eastward movement of the high will bring a wind shift from west-northwest this evening to northeast by the morning period.
The low pressure system that aided in the development of today's storms is currently centered over Yuma County in southern Arizona. Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have developed over the the high country this afternoon. The bulk of the shower activity has formed on the northern flank of a nearly stationary area of low pressure over southwestern AZ.
Upper level ridge building into the Pacific northwest. Expect highs Tuesday about 4-8 degrees warmer than today under mostly sunny skies.
727 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 High pressure will be centered over the region through Tuesday, with dry conditions and warm temperatures.
Upper ridge influences should keep this activity at a minimum, so no severe weather is expected. Upper level ridging influences should be such that severe weather is out of the equation, but it's enough to increase to a small PoP in our western zones during this time frame.
Temperatures ranged from the 50s in the cloudy areas of north central Minnesota to the lower 60s across much of the rest of the area. On Thursday, we should see a good deal of sunshine during the morning, followed by increasing clouds in the afternoon, as a low pressure system heads for the Northland from the Central Plains.
Upper level trough moving through the forecast area this evening for scattered rain showers. Expect shower activity to diminish south of a Burns- Ontario- Stanley line after midnight as the trough moves out of the area.
Surface and upper lows over southeast Saskatchewan will lifts into southern Manitoba this evening, then wobble around the MT/SK border before finally starting to track across southern Manitoba on Thursday night. The southern extend of precipitation has dropped into the southwest/south central this afternoon but expect it to begin lifting north as upper low lifts north and we lose surface heating. Best guidance of late has been the cooler MOS based guidance. Will utilize a blend which places most of the forecast area in the lower 30s. Stronger winds should keep eastern portions of central ND above freezing.
1001 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2016 High pressure over the northeastern United States will keep fair weather across the region through late week.
Very isolated sprinkles continue to pop up on radar along a weak upper trough. Upper low spinning over the Dakotas has ejected a disturbance that is swinging across the Ohio Valley today. Ridging is finally winning out this afternoon, with just some mid-level clouds remaining. Ridging overhead will continue to strengthen through Thursday night, so it looks like largely a persistence forecast, especially in terms of temps. Not expecting any precip as any additional disturbances swinging through the upstream trof appear weaker than today's disturbance and will keep their energy well to our north and west.
Anticipate development by mid afternoon in western Iowa and possibly along the surface warm front in central Iowa. Given the low level shear, organization into supercells seems reasonable with relatively fast movement as the Bunkers motion is 35-40kts toward the northeast. Thereafter, Canadian high pressure will nudge into the northern United States with much cooler air into the weekend.
736 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2016 A large area of high pressure will keep mainly clear skies and mild air over the region for the rest of the work week.
12z/18z short range models depict the nose of the low level jet as being further north. The weak front that moved through the area this morning will begin to lift into northern MO as a southwest-northeast oriented warm front this evening. The warm front will stall out along this line and create multiple clusters of storms on the southern side in the overnight hours.
This, along with some cooler air streaming in from the north late morning has limited high temperatures for the day to the mid 70s.
By Thu afternoon, isolated to scattered TS development appears likely near most of the terminals along a NE-SW trough/dryline, but later TAFs will refine this for any explicit mention as newer data arrive. All other models keep dewpoints in the low to mid 50s but spread the moisture further north and west. This increased moisture will also impact morning low temperatures tomorrow morning as lows over the northwestern South Plains/southwestern Texas Panhandle will depend on when the low-level moisture starts to increase and whether radiational cooling can drop temps below guidance values once again. Opted to go with cooler temps as we should see dewpoints stay in the 30s and winds remain light and variable before sunrise or the better moisture mixes into this area.
/issued 410 PM CDT WED OCT 5 2016/ Latest WV imagery and UA analysis shows a large trough over the wrn CONUS beneath a large upper low spinning over SE Saskatchawan. At the sfc, high pres was ridging swwd into LA and E TX, resulting in an E to SE wind field acrs the area. Drier air will begin to nudge into the region overnight as low lvl ridging becomes elongated to the SW and Matthew crosses the Bahamas, moving toward the ern coast of FL.
A cold front will be approaching from the northwest, and showers and thunderstorms associated with this front may move into parts of northeast Oklahoma towards sunset Thursday.
840 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2016 A large high pressure system centered over New England extends down the east slopes of the Appalachians. This high will remain in place through Thursday night.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a broad trough over the western 2/3 of the country with essentially zonal flow over Texas. This trough is forecast to sharpen over the southwest which will bring light southwesterly flow over Texas. At the surface, high pressure to the northeast had winds from the southeast across our CWA. With the sharpening of the upper trough, a weak short wave will move across Texas and bring a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday across the eastern half of the CWA.
The 19z MSAS surface analysis showed a cold front draped over eastern Wisconsin with a steady eastward movement. Otherwise, weak high pressure was situated over the Midwest/Mid-MS Valley and a strong area of low pressure was located near Lake Winnipeg. A brief break in the precipitation is expected for most of the forecast area tonight as the cold front pushes farther east and the weak high pressure noses into Wisconsin.
952 PM MDT Wed Oct 5 2016 Upper level low continues to spin over the Canadian Prairies with broad troughing extending southwestward across much of the western US. A low pressure system lingering over southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba will continue the moist northwest flow aloft over the terminals through 18Z. Weak high pressure will begin to move into the area from the west after 18Z, which will cause conditions to improve to mostly VFR, with scattered showers possibly bringing brief MVFR conditions.
Current surface pattern appears locked in place across the southeast with a ridge of high pressure situated just to our east and a surface front stalled over the Great Plains.
1050 PM MDT Wed Oct 5 2016 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION Upper level low continues to spin over the Canadian Prairies with broad troughing extending southwestward across much of the western US. Weak high pressure will then begin to move into the area from the west after 18Z, which will cause conditions to improve to mostly VFR, but weak instability will cause scattered showers, possibly bringing brief MVFR conditions.
For the immediate short term, a deep mixing layer with 40 kts available to mix down associated with a low pressure system over Manitoba are resulting in wind gusts up to 45 mph with sustained winds in Valley City. MAV guidance is showing temps across Cavalier county around 37 F whereas MET guidance is a good 8 to 10 F cooler. Breezy west winds continue on Thursday, with increasing solar as the low pulls out of the area. However, a decent shot of cold air advection will still keep temps a few degrees cooler than today. Upper level low pressure continues to rotate through the northern plains. Cool air in the wake of a cold front will filter south out of Canada. Temperatures are forecast to dip below freezing at night in partly cloudy skies.
Anticipate development by mid afternoon in western Iowa and possibly along the surface warm front in central Iowa. Given the low level shear, organization into supercells seems reasonable with relatively fast movement as the Bunkers motion is 35-40kts toward the northeast. Thereafter, Canadian high pressure will nudge into the northern United States with much cooler air into the weekend. Some uncertainty on stratus potential overnight starting over southern Iowa then lifting north on Thursday ahead of a warm front.
822 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2016 High pressure will remain ridged over the region through the week and bring pleasant autumn days with highs in the 70s.
With the lack of any upper level support and increased upper level ridging moving into our region from the southwest overnight. With drier air nudging in from the east and the east side of this expanding upper level ridge of high pressure.
High pressure will move farther east as a broad low pressure system pushes through central Canada.
Although, it appears there should be enough clearing and lighter winds to allow temps to fall into the low to mid 30s for much of north central SD into the James River valley.
into the Lower Mississippi Valley with warm days and pleasant nights.
With sfc and upper level ridging remaining in control of the weather pattern across the Southeast CONUS thru the end of the work week, plenty of sunshine and dry conditions are expected.
Clear skies were continuing across the forecast area at 23Z with temps ranging from the low-mid 80s. A large area of high pressure remains anchored from the Mid Atlantic/NE states swwd into parts of the SE region, leading to mostly sunny skies and temp trends predom in the mid 80s over much of the cntrl Gulf coastal states. Little is xpcted to change through the end of the work week, as upper ridging over the Mid Atlantic states drifts eastward and Hurricane Matthew takes aim at eastern FL. Closer to home, high pressure at the sfc will remain fairly stagnant before a reinforcing cold front approaches the Mid South/TN Valley areas late Fri/early Sat.
925 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2016 High pressure will remain over the New England States through Thursday.
For this evening, warmer overnight lows as increasing clouds and southerly winds work in tandem to keep the temps from dropping too much in the early morning hours. Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing Thursday evening in northwestern parts of the CWA, mainly northwest of I-55, with the highest pops being northwest of the Illinois river during the overnight hours.
Additional thunderstorms are expected late in the period at the northeast Oklahoma TAF sites with the approach of a cold front.
IR satellite shows some breaks developing in the lower Columbia Basin of WA.
A large area of high pressure remains anchored from the Mid Atlantic/NE states swwd into parts of the SE region, leading to mostly sunny skies and temp trends predom in the mid 80s over much of the cntrl Gulf coastal states. Little is xpcted to change through the end of the work week, as upper ridging over the Mid Atlantic states drifts eastward and Hurricane Matthew takes aim at eastern FL. Closer to home, high pressure at the sfc will remain fairly stagnant before a reinforcing cold front approaches the Mid South/TN Valley areas late Fri/early Sat.
This will result in a warm front lifting north through Kansas tonight with easterly winds and moisture pooling north of this warm front. However, based on the timing of a rather strong cold front, most of the bigger afternoon thunderstorms capable of producing the heaviest rain will be east of our forecast area. Highs on Thursday will range from a very cool 50 degrees around Ord will the cold front will pass through fairly early in the morning to the mid 60s over north central Kansas.
714 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2016 High pressure will remain over the New England States through Thursday.
A RELATIVELY QUIET BUT COOL AND BREEZY DAY TODAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION/NW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. TEMPS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW 30S ACROSS NE WY TO NW SD. THERMAL PROFILES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TO FALL AS SNOW DEPENDING ON TEMPS AT THE LOWEST 3KFT. HOWEVER THINKING IS THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY ACCUMULATION ALONG WITH GROUND TEMPS BEING VERY WARM STILL.
Temperatures along the island chain are in the lower 80s. Tropical storm force conditions are expected from the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge eastward through later today and tonight. Small craft advisory conditions are expected for the next several periods across all waters west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge.
Lows tonight should be able to dip down into the 50s to lower 60s for most areas before the low clouds spread in over the area late tonight. increasing cloudiness a bit earlier Thursday night will result in slightly warmer lows then.
Low temperatures Thursday morning will be milder, with low clouds retarding radiational cooling, ranging from near 40 in Hamilton county, to the lower 60s in Barber county. Any convection along the advancing boundary will be confined to the far SE zones near Medicine Lodge Thursday afternoon/evening, with the cold front passage expected to be dry elsewhere.
By late afternoon, a cold front will enter far northern Oklahoma as a trough lifts from the central Rockies into the central Plains.
A longwave trof pattern over the western/central states transitions to mainly over the central states through the period while powerful Matthew advances northward near the Bahamas. Lows tonight range from the lower 60s well inland to near 70 at the coast.
1015 PM EDT WED OCT 5 2016 A pressure ridge will extend along the Appalachians with an inverted trough just off the Southeast coast through Thursday.
An upper level ridge briefly moves over the area late tonight through early Thursday.
The higher moisture is expected to reach the VCT area on Thursday with isolated showers in the morning and possibly scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon.
The weak front that moved through the area this morning will begin to lift into northern MO as a southwest-northeast oriented warm front this evening. The warm front will stall out along this line and create multiple clusters of storms on the southern side in the overnight hours.
This is in response to tightening pressure gradient between high pressure ridge (wedge) building down the eastern seaboard into northeast Florida and Matthew moving into the central Bahamas. Outer rain bands in the periphery of Matthew will also increase in coverage and begin to bring more frequent shower bands onshore through the day, with the highest coverage of squalls expected into the Treasure coast by the afternoon.
/issued 354 PM CDT WED OCT 5 2016/ (Tonight and Thursday) Warmer than normal temperatures highlight the forecast for the next 24 hours. The upper trough axis, which water vapor imagery places over the far western CONUS, progresses into the Rockies by tomorrow afternoon.
This will mean that lows to be significantly warmer tonight, especially in the SE. Some TSTMs are expected in the SE TX Panhandle with a significant cold front which will approach late in the day. A closed low is slowly moving north out of MT/ND with attendant wave moving through MS/OH Valleys. A jet rounding the base of the CONUS trough will strengthen some as it crosses the Rockies with weak perturbations along the southwesterly flow. Increased moisture convergence along the stationary boundary will occur as a lee low develops ahead of a reinforcing cold front moving in Thursday afternoon/evening. This is contingent on how far north moisture is able to get prior to cold front's arrival. and GFS poor handling of previous cold fronts and availability of moisture.
Temperatures have not fallen as quickly this evening closer to the coast as the light northeasterly wind has allowed some mixing in the lower levels to offset radiational cooling. A longwave trof pattern over the western/central states transitions to mainly over the central states through the period while powerful Matthew advances northward near the Bahamas. Lows tonight range from the lower 60s well inland to near 70 at the coast.
609 PM CDT Wed Oct 5 2016 A large area of low pressure in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will continue to churn over a wide swath of south central Canada tonight and Thursday. On the far southern periphery of this low, an upper trough/short wave will move into the Colorado and Wyoming Rockies tonight, and extend throughout the central Dakotas and central Nebraska on Thursday. This will allow surface cyclogenesis to form near the Oklahoma panhandle tonight, with the low organizing into an inverted trough on Thursday as it kicks out into the central plains. The lower level frontogenesis is primarily extended throughout northwest Iowa closer to the frontal boundary.
751 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2016 High pressure will remain in control across the region through the first half of the weekend. High pressure will remain across the region overnight with clear skies. Thursday will be another pleasant day and warmer w/most areas apchg 70F or slightly warmer.
This along with the lifting boundary that could aid in additional precip development, maintained chance wording with the highest pops over northern Illinois.
Clair shadow), and dew pts residing in the lower 60s/around 60 degrees. Lead surge of moisture this morning, as seen in the 850-700 mb theta- E fields, did lead to some high based cu during the day, with secondary surge arriving this evening, as upper level forcing/sharp upper level trough lifts northeast through the Western Great Lakes. Based on upstream radar trends and latest HiRes models, prospects for showers/isolated thunderstorms remains low along/south of M-59, with best chance north of I-69 where pops approach/reach likely early this evening as the cold front washes out.
By Thu afternoon, isolated to scattered TS development appears likely near most of the terminals along a NE-SW trough/dryline, but later TAFs will refine this for any explicit mention as newer data arrive.
707 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2016 High pressure over the northeastern United States will keep fair weather across the region through late week.
As we go into tomorrow, the chances for showers and thunderstorms will begin to lessen as the low level jet weakens.
High pressure at the surface and aloft remains anchored over the forecast area this afternoon and looks to continue through the short term. Mid level troughing over the mid MS valley by the weekend will allow a cold front to push through the area.
744 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2016 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather until the approach of a cold front this weekend. High pressure will maintain dry weather for the near term period with seasonably cool morning lows giving way to above average warmth via insolation and weak warm advection. Upper ridge departs early in this period, and a frontal boundary encroaches from the west. There are still some timing issues to deal with regarding the front and its associated mid level trough.
1048 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2016 High pressure will remain in control across the region through the first half of the weekend. High pressure will remain across the region overnight with clear skies. Thursday will be another pleasant day and warmer w/most areas apchg 70F or slightly warmer.
734 PM EDT WED OCT 5 2016 High pressure should maintain dry weather through much of the work week. Moisture from Matthew from the south and an approaching cold front from the west will increase the chance for rain this weekend. Less of a puff in the low levels tonight so think late river valley fog may be more in the cards. High pressure remains to our northeast with easterly low level flow across the Central Appalachians and Middle Ohio River Valley. Dry conditions under high pressure with southeasterly flow across the area. An upper trough approaches from the west as hurricane Matthew moves northward, our forecast area will be stuck in between for increased PoPs.
802 PM EDT WED OCT 5 2016 A pressure ridge will extend along the Appalachians with an inverted trough just off the Southeast coast through Thursday.
it will be a quiet TAF period with a ridge of high pressure over the region.
An upper trough will cross Utah through Thursday. High pressure will bring a drier and warmer airmass for the end of the week.
As of 3 pm, the cold front has just cleared west central Wisconsin and the cloud cover has quickly cleared as well. Far west central MN will be susceptible to the core of the cooler air to our northwest tonight, so we do have upper 30s for lows in the greater Alexandria area tonight. Dew points have already dropped into the 30s behind todays cold front with 50s/60s dew points in southern Iowa.
850 mb ridging nosing west across the eastern zones will lead to the entrainment of drier air/lowered dewpoints and subsequently a cool night /lower 60s to lower 70s/. Weak 500 mb ridging expanding from east Texas to across the Four-State region late tonight through tomorrow will lead to a slight uptick in 850 mb temps and hence sfc temps likely to warm a degree or two higher than what has occurred today. An upper air trough nearing the Four-corners region late this aftn is anticipated to traverse the Central Plains and towards the Great Lakes Region by late this week.
Low level east-southeasterly flow will bring this higher moisture into the northern Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads regions on Thursday. The higher moisture is expected to reach the VCT area on Thursday with isolated showers in the morning and possibly scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Strong wedge of high pressure continues the tight gradient producing local nor'easter conditons for ne Fl/se Ga.
Accumulating snow still expected to be confined to the higher mtns with a few inches there. Warm ground temps and air temps above freezing Thursday should limit any light snow accumulations to just grassy areas over higher terrain. Clearing skies Thursday evening with light winds overnight so expect freezing conditions across the rest of the CWA that has not yet seen widespread freezing temps.
A few higher clouds will drift across the area tonight through Thursday night with slightly warmer temperatures.
552 PM MDT Wed Oct 5 2016 The lead short wave in the broad upper trough extending from the intermountain west through the plains states continues to lift northeast over the Great Lakes this evening as the second short wave dives into the base of the trough overnight tonight. This second short wave trough begins to lift out across the Central and Northern High Plains during the day on Thursday. A colder high pressure area moves quickly into the central high plains behind a cold front by late Thursday. As skies clear and winds go light Thursday night temperatures will fall into the lower to middle 30s.
Rest of today, Surface ridging over the Upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic States will gradually consolidate into a 1025 mb ridge just east of Cape Hatteras, however, strong heating over the South Florida mainland will result in typical mid May heat troughing over land. On this date in Florida Keys weather history, in 1917, the low temperature in Key West was 64 degrees.