Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
230 PM CST Fri Jan 3 2020 Upper level trough has moved east of the area this afternoon which will give way to a benign weather pattern for the next 7 days. Upper level ridging will strengthen across our area this weekend leading to slightly warmer temperatures on Saturday.
Cold front has cleared all but extreme southeast OK, with skies beginning to partially clear across western parts of the forecast area.
Overnight/early this morning, widespread cloud cover has been common across central, south central, and southeast Kansas in the wake of the elongated frontal zone stretching all the way from the Great Lakes into southwest Texas ahead of a mid/upper level trough that will slide eastward into the Middle Mississippi River Valley during the day today. Additionally, temperatures will be a little cooler today than yesterday, though will likely still top out in the mid 40s to near 50, which remains above normal for early January. A ridging pattern will set up across the central CONUS on Saturday setting the stage for a dry weekend across the area with mostly sunny skies and temperatures remaining above normal for the time of year.
136 PM CST Fri Jan 3 2020 Current WV satellite indicates our trough overhead is steadily pivoting eastward with drier northerly winds advecting into the region. Visible satellite is a stark contrast from earlier this AM with clearing pushing quickly south in response to the vacating trough and northerly flow. Longwave trough exiting east of Mississippi will be replaced by a stout upper ridge field currently building to the west.
High pressure over the region will weaken on Saturday with the passage of a grazing storm system.
210 PM CST Fri Jan 3 2020 Light snow will come to an end by tonight as the clipper moves southeast into the lower Great Lakes region. An upper level ridge will move into the Northern Plains for much of the day on Saturday leading to fair weather. A cold front will move across North Dakota Saturday night bringing with it high winds and chances for light snow. The main impact with this frontal passage will be the high winds gusting as high as 50 mph. With our recent warmer temperatures and freezing rain/drizzle there is not much blowable snow so blowing snow is not expected to be a significant impact at this point.
245 PM CST Fri Jan 3 2020 A cold front is on our doorstep this afternoon and will continue to move east overnight tonight, bringing a drop in temperatures and pushing widespread rain off to our east.
1103 AM MST Fri Jan 3 2020 Moisture streaming over the mid-level ridge of high pressure over the West continued to bring some light snow showers to areas in Colorado's northern and central mountains early this morning. Quiet weather prevailed elsewhere, though stratus remained entrenched over the Colorado River Basin, eastern Uinta Basin, much of the Yampa River Basin as well as portions of the Uncompahgre and Gunnison basin and, finally, the lower elevations of Archuleta and La Plata Counties. Inversions holding the low level stratus in place unlikely to be disrupted this morning so updated sky forecast to account for cloudiness. Temperatures moderate today and Saturday as warmer air is advected into the area.
1249 PM EST Fri Jan 3 2020 Periodic rain is expected through Saturday with crossing low pressure. The rain should end as snow Saturday night after the passage of the low. The low should track NE across the Upper OH Valley region tonight and Saturday. The axis of the upper trough is expected to cross the region Saturday evening. Expecting less than an inch for most locations, though the higher terrain SE of PIT could see a couple of inches with some brief upslope enhancement.
222 PM EST Fri Jan 3 2020 Periodic rain is expected through Saturday with crossing low pressure. The rain should end as snow Saturday night after the passage of the low. Temperatures will remain fairly stagnate overnight as CAA on the backside of the low looks to hold off until Saturday morning. Precipitation will become more showery with the approach and passage of the upper trough on Saturday. Expecting less than an inch for most locations, though the higher terrain SE of PIT could see a couple of inches with some brief upslope enhancement.
Areas of light rain, drizzle, and patchy fog will linger through the evening ahead of the main surface cold front. The main upper level low and deepening trough axis will move through the area early on Saturday. This will result in breezy and cooler conditions to start the weekend.
(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 1146 AM CST Fri Jan 3 2020 Northwest flow in the mid and upper levels continues as a departing trough moves through the southern plains and a large upper ridge is in the rockies. otherwise the rest of the area should see mainly clear skies as high pressure moves in. Saturday as the high moves to the south and east we should see mainly sunny skies through the day and winds will switch to the southwest at the surface and westerly in the 850 mb range. A cold front is then forecast to cross western Kansas Saturday night as the first of two upper level waves moves out into the Plains.
(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 1146 AM CST Fri Jan 3 2020 Northwest flow in the mid and upper levels continues as a departing trough moves through the southern plains and a large upper ridge is in the rockies. otherwise the rest of the area should see mainly clear skies as high pressure moves in. Saturday as the high moves to the south and east we should see mainly sunny skies through the day and winds will switch to the southwest at the surface and westerly in the 850 mb range.
A Pacific cold front continues to push south of the region early this afternoon. Lows tonight should drop into the 30s for most areas, with some freezing temperatures expected over the Hill Country. High pressure and clear skies remain intact on Saturday and with light westerly winds, dry air and plenty of sunshine, we will warm into the upper 60s and lower 70s.
207 PM EST Fri Jan 3 2020 Visibile satellite imagery in conjunction with satellite derived wind vectors place the center of a high pressure system just southeast of Bermuda. Meanwhile, a cold front sliding east- southeast through the west-central Gulf of Mexico is producing a line of showers and storms southwest of Louisiana. Temperatures are in the lower 80s and dewpoints are in the mid 70s.
249 PM CST Fri Jan 3 2020 Early this afternoon, an upper level trough is located across the central CONUS, extending from the Upper Midwest down into portions of central Texas, with southwesterly flow on its eastern periphery bringing moisture and rainfall to the Gulf Coast and the Tennessee River Valley. At the surface, observations show northwesterly winds and a low cloud deck across the area sandwiched between this morning's cold front to our southeast and a secondary cold front draped across far northwest Missouri into central Kansas. Highs will only top out in the low to mid 40s for Saturday despite clearing skies.
955 AM PST Fri Jan 3 2020 High pressure aloft will bring generally clear skies and mild weather this weekend.
1147 AM CST Fri Jan 3 2020 The trough of low pressure continues over the area with an abundance of low clouds. Another round of light rain is possible this afternoon as the trough continues to swing through, in the central and southern sections. High pressure will build into the area Saturday. LIFR/IFR conditions will become VFR by mid to late afternoon, as a cold front passes through Arkansas today. Today Through Saturday Night Early this morning, a cold front was located from north central Arkansas through the Red River Valley of Texas and Oklahoma. Upper trough digging down into the Southern Plains will push the front out of the region later today, with any lingering rainfall coming to an end this afternoon or evening.
A thick shield of high cloud cover is accompanying an upper ridge as it builds over the Intermountain NW.
Strong CAA in the lower levels will result in a short period of instability below 12kft that will allow rain and show showers to develop over Iowa eventually moving into N central MO this evening. Due to the convective nature of this feature there will likely be bands of precipitation with the low level thermal profile dictating the precipitation type. This system will push through rather quickly with almost all precipitation out of our region by sunrise and upper level ridging quickly overtaking the area going into the weekend.
1044 AM EST Fri Jan 3 2020 Visisbile satellite imagery in conjunction with satellite derived wind vectors place the center of a high pressure system just south of Bermuda. Meanwhile, a cold front sliding east-southeast through the western Gulf of Mexico is producing a line showers and storms southwest of Louisiana. Temperatures are in the lower 80s and dewpoints are nearing the mid 70s. From synopsis, high pressure across the western North Atlantic will gradually shift eastward this afternoon through Saturday, shifting winds from southeast to south. A strong cold front will sweep southeast through the coastal waters of the Florida Keys late Saturday afternoon, coincident with a sharp northwest wind shift.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue ahead of the cold front this afternoon. However, limited upper support and the influence of the mid-level ridge over much of Florida should continue to limit the extent of the severe weather. Showers will continue behind the front overnight, until the main trough axis swings early Saturday.
Upper trof moving into the eastern Dakotas, with ridge building across the northern Rockies. Band of mid level clouds across northeast Wyoming and western South Dakota is bringing a bit of light snow to the higher elevations of the Black Hills. Upper level ridge shifts into the Northern Plains/western Dakotas tonight into Saturday morning, with ridge breaking down Saturday afternoon. Biggest issue for Saturday afternoon/night will be strong winds with cold frontal passage late afternoon/evening.
Also, skies will become mostly clear as the upper level low will be east of our area. For Saturday expect warmer conditions with mostly sunny skies.
Morning Update A surface cold front is currently situated to the NW of the Memphis metro oriented NNE/SSW. However, a reinforcing cold front will move through this afternoon keeping skies partly to mostly cloudy. As a result, temperatures this afternoon will be only a few degrees warmer than that is being observed now. This jet was immediately downstream of an upper low over far west Texas. For today, the west TX upper low will lift east and gradually weaken, as a midlevel dry slot associated with an approaching northern branch low enters. As the axis of the upper low passes through midday Saturday, midlevel lapse rates will steepen, though moisture will remain scant and measurable precip chances below mentionable thresholds.
1201 PM CST Fri Jan 3 2020 Rain will continue to be a threat across areas near and south of I-70 today, and near the Indiana border this evening, as a cold front slowly moves into the Ohio Valley region.
For Saturday, upper ridge builds across the region ahead of the next system.
An upper level trough remains just west of the region, but will continue to move east across the region through tonight. Sunny and mild conditions are expected Sat and Sat night as high pressure settles across the region.
856 PM CST Fri Jan 3 2020 Wx map shows cold front moving through Central and Southwest Louisiana this evening, with cooler and drier air filtering across Southeast Texas behind it. /issued 345 PM CST Fri Jan 3 2020/ A surface cold front currently extending roughly along the Texas/Louisiana border will continue to progress east- southeastward through this evening. High pressure will build in behind the front, resulting in cooler and drier conditions on Saturday. Temperatures will gradually climb through the weekend as the high pressure shifts eastward and return flow develops.
An upper short wave and associated cold front will move into the delta this evening and move across the area through the overnight hours. In the wake of the boundary on Saturday, the winds may become gusty out of the northwest during the late morning into the afternoon hours, with gusts from 20-25 mph possible, but high pressure ridging will quickly build in by early Saturday evening and the winds will subside.
345 PM CST Fri Jan 3 2020 A surface cold front currently extending roughly along the Texas/Louisiana border will continue to progress east- southeastward through this evening. High pressure will build in behind the front, resulting in cooler and drier conditions on Saturday. Temperatures will gradually climb through the weekend as the high pressure shifts eastward and return flow develops.
255 PM MST Fri Jan 3 2020 Highly amplified pattern continues to sweep across the state, with strong north winds aloft on the back side of the departing trough. Conditions will relax some tonight as the peak of the ridge moves through. Winds across the Green Mountains to the lower elevations of Natrona County will jump to 25 to 35 mph, with frequent gusts of 45 to 55 mph during the afternoon. The exception here is the higher elevations of the western mountain ranges, where the gusty west winds will improve orographic lift for those areas for during a brief window Saturday afternoon.
455 PM MST Fri Jan 3 2020 Northwest flow behind yesterday's trough passage is keeping orographic light snow periodically falling over the higher peaks of the northwest Colorado mountains and Elk mountains with minimal accumulations and rates. With the upper level jet moving overhead as the trough axis is shifting eastward, this has allowed some of these valleys to mix out. Aspen and Eagle may remain socked in through early evening before clearing out overnight as dry air moves in behind this trough and precipitation over the high terrain comes to an end. Temperatures also expected to warm up as a result, or at least it will feel warmer due to the presence of sun and lack of cloud cover.
842 PM EST Fri Jan 3 2020 Adjustments were made to the PoPs to reflect current radar observations as a line of showers along the cold front slowly progresses through our area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue ahead of the cold front this afternoon. However, limited upper support and the influence of the mid-level ridge over much of Florida should continue to limit the extent of the severe weather. Showers will continue behind the front overnight, until the main trough axis swings early Saturday.
Isolated showers will continue to be possible during the evening as a cold front moves through the area. An upper short wave and associated cold front will move into the delta this evening and move across the area through the overnight hours. In the wake of the boundary on Saturday, the winds may become gusty out of the northwest during the late morning into the afternoon hours, with gusts from 20-25 mph possible, but high pressure ridging will quickly build in by early Saturday evening and the winds will subside.
509 PM EST Fri Jan 3 2020 Periodic rain is expected through Saturday with crossing low pressure. The rain should end as snow Saturday night after the passage of the low. Precipitation will become more showery with the approach and passage of the upper trough on Saturday. Expecting less than an inch for most locations, though the higher terrain SE of PIT could see a couple of inches with some brief upslope enhancement.
/issued 136 PM CST Fri Jan 3 2020/ Current WV satellite indicates our trough overhead is steadily pivoting eastward with drier northerly winds advecting into the region. Visible satellite is a stark contrast from earlier this AM with clearing pushing quickly south in response to the vacating trough and northerly flow. Longwave trough exiting east of Mississippi will be replaced by a stout upper ridge field currently building to the west.
527 PM CST Fri Jan 3 2020 Snow is expected to continue through the late afternoon into the early evening hours as upper low slides southeast. Low pressure over southwest Minnesota as of 21Z is expected to quickly shift southeast this evening leading to clearing skies and decreasing winds overnight. Flow quickly turns southerly after midnight across central South Dakota as elongated ridge shifts south. Further to the east, should have more of a typical diurnal curve, with the low level warm air advection arriving shortly after sunrise.
920 PM EST Fri Jan 3 2020 Instability axis continues along and ahead of a cold front across SE GA this evening.
Leeside trough be analyzed on surface charts this afternoon rough just east of Douglas to Guernsey to Pine Bluffs this afternoon. Strong surface pressure gradient to the west of this trough with Craig to Casper roughly 11mbs.
/issued 345 PM CST Fri Jan 3 2020/ A surface cold front currently extending roughly along the Texas/Louisiana border will continue to progress east- southeastward through this evening. High pressure will build in behind the front, resulting in cooler and drier conditions on Saturday. Temperatures will gradually climb through the weekend as the high pressure shifts eastward and return flow develops.
A cold front is on our doorstep this afternoon and will continue to move east overnight tonight, bringing a drop in temperatures and pushing widespread rain off to our east.
Additional midlevel cloud cover is expected to overspread portions of the area, mainly south of I-70, through the night as speed maximum on the backside of the midlevel trough traverses the area. Overnight lows are progged range from the low to middle 20s. For Saturday, surface ridging will traverse the CWA through the morning and early afternoon, yielding a WAA pattern on the western periphery.
650 PM EST Fri Jan 3 2020 Periodic rain is expected through Saturday with crossing low pressure. The rain should end as snow Saturday night after the passage of the low. Precipitation will become more showery with the approach and passage of the upper trough on Saturday. Expecting less than an inch for most locations, though the higher terrain SE of PIT could see a couple of inches with some brief upslope enhancement.
402 PM MST Fri Jan 3 2020 Highly amplified pattern continues to sweep across the state, with strong north winds aloft on the back side of the departing trough. Conditions will relax some tonight as the peak of the ridge moves through. Winds across the Green Mountains to the lower elevations of Natrona County will jump to 25 to 35 mph, with frequent gusts of 45 to 55 mph during the afternoon. The exception here is the higher elevations of the western mountain ranges, where the gusty west winds will improve orographic lift for those areas for during a brief window Saturday afternoon.
Skies will clear late in the day, with high pressure building into the area from the W/NW.
335 PM CST Fri Jan 3 2020 Snow is expected to continue through the late afternoon into the early evening hours as upper low slides southeast. Low pressure over southwest Minnesota as of 21Z is expected to quickly shift southeast this evening leading to clearing skies and decreasing winds overnight. Flow quickly turns southerly after midnight across central South Dakota as elongated ridge shifts south. Further to the east, should have more of a typical diurnal curve, with the low level warm air advection arriving shortly after sunrise.
The Key West evening sounding showed a drier boundary layer than the past few nights, with a 2 degree subsidence inversion in the lowest few thousand feet, which appears to be valid as the evening sounding in Miami is showing a similar structure. With this stable layer through the lowest few kilometers and dry air above, precipitation anywhere over our waters is unlikely overnight, especially with no appreciable moister air upstream. However, tomorrow after daybreak winds will begin to clock from southeast to southwest through late morning and afternoon as a cold front approaches the area from the northwest. Tomorrow night, around 8 to 11pm, winds will suddenly switch to northwest to north and become fresh to strong as the cold front pushes into the area.
This warm and moist airmass has been isentropically lifted over the cooler and more stable airmass at the surface throughout the day resulting in an overcast sky and periods of rain.
402 PM MST Fri Jan 3 2020 Upper ridging on Saturday will slide east during the day, with increasing cloud cover expected as the ridge axis pushes further downstream. , but will monitor potential for strong to high winds in the lower elevations as well. Thus, the High Wind Watch has been replaced with a warning.
523 PM CST Fri Jan 3 2020 Gusty northwest winds behind today's cold frontal passage are begining to relax. A Pacific cold front continues to push south of the region early this afternoon. Lows tonight should drop into the 30s for most areas, with some freezing temperatures expected over the Hill Country. High pressure and clear skies remain intact on Saturday and with light westerly winds, dry air and plenty of sunshine, we will warm into the upper 60s and lower 70s.
518 PM CST Fri Jan 3 2020 Early this afternoon, an upper level trough is located across the central CONUS, extending from the Upper Midwest down into portions of central Texas, with southwesterly flow on its eastern periphery bringing moisture and rainfall to the Gulf Coast and the Tennessee River Valley. At the surface, observations show northwesterly winds and a low cloud deck across the area sandwiched between this morning's cold front to our southeast and a secondary cold front draped across far northwest Missouri into central Kansas. Highs will only top out in the low to mid 40s for Saturday despite clearing skies.
340 PM MST Fri Jan 3 2020 High pressure over the region will weaken on Saturday as storm system passes through the Northern Rockies.
845 PM EST Fri Jan 3 2020 A cold front will move trough late tonight into early Saturday. Showers are expected along and ahead of the cold front, and could continue into Saturday as an upper trough moves through.
Above average temperatures will continue through the weekend as ridging sets up across the Desert Southwest. Comparable high temperatures expected today as yesterday with a ridge of high pressure continuing to pass over the Desert Southwest. NBM has trended 3-5 degrees cooler than what ended up coming to fruition for both high and low temperatures area-wide. MOS guidance is, unfortunately, playing the same tune with forecast temperatures 2-4 degrees cooler than what was ultimately observed. The high pressure to thank for these above average temperatures will continue to push eastward through the weekend. The associated ridge will become stifled as a series of troughs originating in the Pacific Northwest effectively squish the area of high pressure south of our area.
High clouds have been filtering through the area today as we see the upper level ridge push off to the east. Cloud cover will be on the increase this evening as an upper level trough and cold front push into the region. Showers will continue to overspread areas north of I-80 overnight as the cold front drops south through the Sacramento Valley.
A cold front will clip the Bay Area tonight bringing periods of light rain while struggling to reach the Monterey Bay region.
Main change was to add the mention of an elevated fire danger in Petroleum and Southwest Phillips Counties tomorrow to the high wind warning due to the combination of low humidity values, high winds, bare ground / lack of snow cover, and dry fuels in that part of the area. Avery Upper ridging on Saturday will slide east during the day, with increasing cloud cover expected as the ridge axis pushes further downstream. , but will monitor potential for strong to high winds in the lower elevations as well. Thus, the High Wind Watch has been replaced with a warning.
The cold front is just starting to work its way through the mid state, with obs to the northwest of Nashville showing northwesterly winds and dropping temperatures. MVFR to LIFR conditions will be most common through this TAF cycle as a cold front pushes through.
306 PM MST Fri Jan 3 2020 Upper ridge drifts eastward across the state overnight, then is replaced by increasing wly flow aloft on Sat.