Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1030 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 High pressure over the region will keep above normal temperatures in the forecast through the end of the week. Upper level ridge continues over the Southeastern states and offshore. The ridge will weaken Friday as an upper trough moves eastward. increased low-level moisture and weak trough/frontal boundary in the vicinity should be a much better focus for convection than the area has seen in awhile.
There is also an inverted trough feature extending northwest along the Mississippi River from the low and it is this feature which has helped develop scattered light rain showers over southeastern and south central parts of the coverage area today. High pressure will then filter in from the northwest behind the departing low pressure system overnight through Friday as will small bubble ridging aloft within the northwest flow. This will allow for partial clearing through the rest of today on through tomorrow and slightly warmer temperatures for tomorrow.
The latest OBs tend to support this idea as dewpoints have fallen into the lower 60s over Brown and Marshall counties. Freezing levels remain fairly high for large hail, but there could be some marginally severe hail with some of the stronger updrafts. Although the expectation is for the chance to diminish through the day with the vorticity moving southeast of the area and surface ridging building in. Lows could be a little tricky if rain cooled air knocks reading down into the lower 60s. However there is also progged to be cooler air advecting in. So highs in the lower and middle 80s seems to be in the ballpark.
Northwest flow aloft on northeast side of upper ridge will continue to be active for a short while longer as thunderstorms grow upscale from the central High Plains and move S/SE into the Southern Plains. Difficult to see reason for anything by very low pops through midweek as GFS has ridge axis from southwest TX extending NE through NE Missouri.
Otherwise temps were mainly in the lower 80s with dewpoints in the low/mid 70s. For tonight the TN valley is along the wrn side of an upper ridge which is centered off the sern coastline.
Large closed 500mb low over northern Quebec has a trough axis extending southwest through the western Lakes.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms where over much of IL in the tropical airmass over IL where dewpoints in the low to mid 70s and temps in the 80s.
Model guidance continues to show mainly MVFR cigs developing overnight and lasting into the morning, so will keep the low clouds in for the next several hours.
This will allow temperatures to be warmer in the northeast and southwest, while the central portions of Central Alabama may only get into the mid 80s. The primary focus for convection and low clouds will be along and south of trof axis across northern Mississippi and western Tennessee.
However, the upper low is still dropping SE over Oklahoma so we will keep slight wording in prudence, but it will be a good while as we have all been worked over pretty well area wide all day long.
Satellite imagery shows a weak inverted upper trough over the western Gulf of Mexico moving to the west. The upper ridge tries to build back some, but not enough really and there is still some hint of an inverted trough proximate to the region. However, water vapor imagery is showing the upper trough closer to the Bay of Campeche, which puts our area on the wrong side of the upper trough/TUTT. With drier air and lighter winds, then should see slightly cooler temperatures Friday night than tonight (or this morning).
903 PM PDT THU JUL 28 2016 High pressure aloft will result in above normal temperatures through the end of the week, with night through morning low clouds and fog affecting some coastal areas. Temperatures will return to near normal over the weekend as high pressure weakens. An upper-level ridge of high pressure remains anchored over Southern Nevada this evening. Models continue to trend slightly cooler through the weekend as high pressure weakens and gradients weakly trend onshore.
1147 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 A weak cold front will continue south to the Downeast coast overnight. The front will push offshore Friday into Friday night as low pressure along the front tracks south of the area. Latest guidance show the low moving across the Gulf of Maine. Therefore, pulled back pops w/the highest pops out across the waters after collaboration w/GYX. Previous Discussion: Most of the current shwrs and tstms ovr our FA should move E and or dissipate from the region this eve as an s/wv slides E across Nrn ptns of the FA and a weakening cold front slowly moves S toward the Downeast coast. Low pressure is expected to move out of the Gulf of Maine Friday night.
838 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 A weak cold front will continue south to the Downeast coast tonight. The front will push offshore Friday into Friday night as low pressure along the front tracks south of the area. Orgnl Disc: Most of the current shwrs and tstms ovr our FA should move E and or dissipate from the region this eve as an s/wv slides E across Nrn ptns of the FA and a weakening cold front slowly moves S toward the Downeast coast. Low pressure is expected to move out of the Gulf of Maine Friday night.
909 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 A stalled frontal boundary will remain across the lower lakes and Ohio Valley through the weekend. Weak waves of low pressure will ride along the front helping to ignite some showers and thunderstorms.
Models in general show this feature merging in with a frontal boundary stalled south of our region as the low-level jet increases out of the southwest overnight. and surface ridging nosing in from the north. should result in slightly cooler temps on Friday as highs climb into the low to mid 80s.
717 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 A stalled frontal boundary will remain across the lower lakes and Ohio Valley through the weekend. Weak waves of low pressure will ride along the front helping to ignite some showers and thunderstorms.
The mid level ridge will remain strong off the FL east coast with some moisture return mainly across the interior as moisture depth increases to near 700 mbs.
High pressure will remain in place along the Utah Nevada border through the weekend. Moisture rotating around this ridge will slowly increase across the region through this time. Evening water vapor imagery and objective analysis show a mid level ridge extending from the Four Corners region westward into the southern Great Basin. This ridge orientation is keeping deeper monsoonal moisture suppressed southward across AZ, however mid level moisture which has seeped into the ridge axis has spread across southwest UT allowing for high based convection this afternoon. This ridge axis is forecast to largely remain in place through the weekend, maintaining a very warm airmass across the forecast area. Moisture rotating around the periphery of the ridge across central NV will spread into the forecast area and slowly increase over the next few days.
Upper level ridging and weak low level onshore flow will linger one more day over Western Washington resulting in a warm and sunny day for Friday.
753 PM EDT Thu Jul 28 2016 Cold front remains on the edge of the international border and will slowly track southward this evening and tonight. A few showers are possible again on Friday across South- Central Vermont as the low-level frontal zone continues to shift southward into southern New England.
Northeast flow will persist throughout the forecast between high pressure to the north and a stalled frontal boundary over the northern Ohio Valley. Large closed 500mb low over northern Quebec has a trough axis extending southwest through the western Lakes.
If training of cells does develop, it may be closer to a RIC-FVX- DAN line where existing outflow boundary becomes stuck between stronger westerlies to the north and the upper level ridge over the southeast U. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 60s to the upper 60s across the mountains and around 70 to the lower 70s across the Piedmont.
This will allow temperatures to be warmer in the northeast and southwest, while the central portions of Central Alabama may only get into the mid 80s.
Low levels a bit drier than yesterday so will likely see minimums a few degrees cooler than last night. Dependent on cloud cover temperatures may be a few degrees warmer with enough solar as column warms slightly.
Temps are in the upper 70s currently and will continue to fall very slowly to the low/mid 70s. In general, rain chances are higher along the Highway 82 corridor due to this possibility and the persistent shear axis.
809 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 Low pressure developing along the mid-Atlantic coast will spread showers across northeast Pennsylvania tonight and Friday morning.
Although clods will again hold temps down in the lower 80s Friday. Upper trough over area over the weekend.
With surface and upper level ridging firmly in place across the region, coverage is expected to remain isolated due to subsidence aloft.
Given how moist the low-levels will remain, it seems plausible inhibition will weaken sufficiently during the mid afternoon hours to allow convection to fire in the vicinity of this outflow.
727 PM EDT Thu Jul 28 2016 Cold front remains on the edge of the international border and will slowly track southward this evening and tonight. A few showers are possible again on Friday across South- Central Vermont as the low-level frontal zone continues to shift southward into southern New England.
633 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016 High pressure will nose its way across the forecast area tonight and Friday.
Otherwise, expect dry and very warm conditions (highs around 100F in the lowest valleys) with mostly clear skies and light winds.
This front will slowly slip further offshore on Friday as low pressure track east along it.
640 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 Breezy winds combined with cold air and scattered showers will prevail today in the wake of a strong cold front.
545 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a deep trof extending from Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes region. Gaps in the cloud cover early this morning should fill in with cu/stratocu for a time before 850mb thermal trof shifts farther e. A building upper ridge will bring 850mb temps up to around 9C by the end of the forecast period, so a warming trend to highs from the mid 60s to low 70s by late week is expected. A weakening low pres and trof will drop over Lake Superior tonight, and then push s on Mon.
643 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 A dry and cooler air mass will settle over the region today as high pressure builds over the area. The ridge will move off the cost Monday and moisture will slowly return to the area.
The boundary was a bit more pronounced along the lower coast and this is where convection is most active this morning. Storm motion will be faster on Monday but rainfall rates still look on the high side, so locally heavy rain will again be possible.
643 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 An unseasonably cold airmass will remain over the region today, while an upper level trough sits over the Great Lakes. a weak disturbance rotating around this trough may lead to a few lingering rain showers.
Aloft water vapor satellite shows upper low over Oregon with ridge over the Rockies and northwest flow across central and eastern Kansas. Through tonight the upper low pressure trough will build southeast into the Rockies causing the weak ridge aloft to move over Kansas. Highs today will be warmest in the far northeast where the most sun is expected, but highs in the low to mid 60s will be common.
Freezing conditions are possible tonight before temperatures moderate. If too much remains, frost will be difficult to generate, however there is still a chance many areas would approach freezing in this case. In the case the wind drops off, most areas would decouple and fall toward the dewpoints, which would be well below freezing. This would mean widespread near/below freezing temperatures overnight with widespread frost. While frost and freezing temperatures will be possible most everywhere, the urban core will likely have difficulty achieving freezing temperatures overnight.
Current satellite imagery showing initial push of moisture and -SHRA from low pressure system in eastern Oregon has moved into southwest and south central MT, with mid-level ceilings extending as far north as KHLN. Meanwhile, high pressure remains in place over eastern/north central MT, which will keep dry conditions and SCT-BKN high clouds over KCTB/KHVR tonight and through Sun. Pacific moisture is also moving into Southwest Montana due to an increasing southwest flow aloft ahead of an approaching Pacific low pressure system. This low pressure area will continue to move slowly southeast across the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Basin through Monday, causing the flow aloft to shift more southerly over the entire forecast area. Temperatures will remain cooler than normal over the southwest, but they will warm closer to normal across the north.
a cold front continues to sag south across TX/LA. The front will return north as a warm front on Monday.
334 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016 Main features at 500mb are closed upper low over southern Hudson Bay with trough extending into southeast conus and ridge over the intermountain west extending into Alaska. There is a closed low undercutting the western ridge moving through the Pacific Northwest. The lowest condensation pressure deficits and best lift arrive during the daytime hours Monday. where the forecast will retain the highest pops. The parent trough will sag south through the day on Monday.
IFR and MVFR ceilings will affect all area terminals this morning, although showers or isolated thunderstorms may mix the lower layers out temporarily. A cold front also sits somewhere along the I-10 corridor and has begun to move back north and wash out. Showers and a few storms will continue to affect parts of the area this morning with another round of storms expected to develop near the higher terrain early this afternoon.
154 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 A cold front with limited moisture will move through the region tonight.
Temps at 3 am were ranging from the mid 40s to the lower 50s with north winds 5 to 10 mph. Mid/high clouds associated with an old sfc boundary/upper trof over the wrn states, will continue to push across the cwa today.
High pressure will help to maintain dry weather conditions across most of northeast Montana throughout the short term period.
Activity will be increasing over the central and northern zones throughout the day as a second wave drops in this afternoon and evening as an upper low sets up over central Idaho. Some snow expected for the higher peaks with minimal impact on travel expected with recent warm weather. With cooler weather expected the next few days, expect the snow melt to decrease a bit and keeping the rivers under action stages for now. The first upper level trough will be exiting the area Monday evening with widespread showers and thunderstorms winding down.
Dry cold front will push into the area today. A slightly cooler airmass will reach the northern half of the forecast area, limiting highs to the lower 80s.
247 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016 A chilly morning is underway across the region, with 2 AM temperatures across much of the area in the low 40s. Readings were a bit higher across far southwestern and southern Missouri, where mid level cloud cover was helping to keep things a few degrees warmer. Despite a fair amount of mid and upper level cloud cover, today should be rather pleasant, with light winds and highs in the low to mid 60s. Precipitation chances will increase from the west this evening and especially overnight, as isentropic ascent increases ahead/north of a slow moving warm front. That warm front will lift north Monday before stalling along along the Kansas/Oklahoma and Missouri/Arkansas state lines.
In the wake of the front that is moving through the region, high pressure will build in north of the waters on Monday, with winds becoming easterly.
For Monday, high pressure will build to the north.
Latest water vapor imagery and 500 mb heights showed broad area of troughing over the Great Lakes with several embedded impulses rotating through the Upper Midwest to Ohio Valley and New England. Readings were in the low to mid 40s with light west to northwest winds. Expect a dry and seasonably cool day as high pressure advances eastward out of the central Plains toward the region. Plan on highs in the low 60s and west winds 10 to 15 mph.
High temperatures only in low to mid 50s with low temperatures in the low to mid 40s. a large area of dry air in the mid levels moves in from the southwest as a low pressure center spins over Utah and Idaho. Am likely a bit on the high side for precipitation chances given the amount of dry air but with the amount of moisture in the low levels cant rule out some showers and maybe drizzle at times.
303 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016 Blackberry winter has arrived with a chilly morning across the Mid State with temps down in the middle 30's along the plateau and in the lower to middle 40's west of plateau. Northwesterly flow aloft becomes more zonal by tonight with initial weak disturance rolling out of the southern plains on Monday and into the lower Mississippi River Valley.
Low end VFR to MVFR cigs will prevail through Sunday afternoon as upper level low pressure gradually moves east across the interior pacific northwest. The greatest chance of showers will occur at YKM tonight and at DLS Sunday as moisture wraps around the low. Precip coverage will begin to increase for YKM/DLS/RDM/BDN by tomorrow night as the low nudges east into the ID panhandle. /ISSUED 822 PM SAT MAY 14 2006 / Upper level low pressure continues to nudge east. The upper low will nudge east overnight. with the center of the low near the columbia basin by sunrise. with additional precip on the east wide of the low across the ne Oregon mountains. Will use categorical pops for most of the higher elevations. Flood watches continue for the high lands of NE Oregon and SE Washington through Monday afternoon.
Slow moving upper low will track from east-central Oregon into north-central Idaho today. The low pivots along the OR/ID border overnight before turning south on Monday.
High pressure will build over the area through the weekend.
/Today/ Another quiet weather day is in store, with somewhat warmer temperatures and lighter winds than yesterday. Plenty of sunshine and a lack of the cold air advection experienced yesterday will allow the airmass to moderate, with temperatures rebounding into the low to mid 60s across the forecast area.
as the main area of high pressure sinks across the mid MS valley Sunday and TN valley Sunday night. The 500mb trough looks to sink across ND Monday morning and move into our area Monday afternoon.
403 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016 Cooler than normal temperatures to continue through most of the week. These showers were embedded in 700mb theta-e ridge, under the right entrance region of a 250mb jet core.
139 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 A few lingering showers will come to an end early this evening as low pressure continues to exit the area. Clouds and winds will diminish this evening which will allow for cold low temperatures tonight from the lower to mid 30s. High temperatures on Sunday will range from the lower to mid 50s, with low temperatures Sunday night dropping back into the mid and upper 30s. A series of short wave trofs was moving through a larger trof south of a low over Hudson Bay. The colder WPC guidance favors lows near freezing. Blended the Nam with the warmer GFS. An upper level trof will top the upstream ridge and become positively tilted over the Midwest.
The light winds have been holding temperatures up so far, but are starting to see them calm down and should see temperatures fall from the mid-upper 30s into the lower 30s by daybreak. For the rest of the period, the upper trough that led to the cooler weather over the last couple of days is quickly shifting east and will lead to warmer and mainly dry conditions through the first half of the upcoming work week. The warm/dry trend is tied to the upper trough currently over the Pacific Northwest slowly sinking south-southeast, while a ridge builds over the Canadian Rockies.
Fair weather will return mid to late week as high pressure builds in.
High The base of the upper low centered north of the great lakes will lift northeast.
344 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 A dry and cooler air mass will settle over the region today as high pressure builds over the area. The ridge will move off the cost Monday and moisture will slowly return to the area.
Upper trough over Man/Ontario will move east of the area Mon night and a short wavelength ridge will move over the forecast area Wed morning.
High pressure will continue to filter into the region from the west Sunday, becoming centered over the region by evening. Models continue to trend slower with the moisture moving in ahead of the next warm front.
However, mid-level troughing does remain across the eastern CWA tonight, so shower activity will take a bit longer to diminish. Across the west, approaching WAA and a mid-level trough over Manitoba support a slight chance of rain up to the western CWA by sunset Sunday. WAA will allow for the some low 50s west, but the east will remain in the low to mid 40s. A building upper ridge will bring 850mb temps up to around 9C by the end of the forecast period, so a warming trend to highs from the mid 60s to low 70s by late week is expected. Low pressure over the Lower Great Lakes and high pressure over the central Plains will result in NW winds of 20 to 30 knots into this evening.
127 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 Weak trough extending across Lake Okeechobee area shortly after midnight will move east over the Atlantic later this morning. This trough separates drier air to the north and west from more moist air to the east/south.
The influx of cooler air from the north, along with abundant cloud cover, should help keep temperatures down well below seasonal norms once again today.
Widespread precipitation will be on the increase this morning as an upper-level low pressure system centered over eastern Oregon begins to migrate eastward today. Portions of west-central and southwestern Montana will begin to see moderate rain showers by late afternoon into this evening, with moisture wrapping around the low pressure over central Idaho. The low pressure will linger over the Northern Rockies producing light rain showers Monday, before finally drifting south out of the area.
Still some differences in the models with regards as to how far north the surface warm front will pull back north on Monday. However, the latest NAM pulls the warm front quite a bit farther north than prev runs. Other storms would develop along and north of the warm front across Kansas into Colorado.
Moisture will move back in from the west Sunday night with the approaching upper level trough ejecting out of a closed low dropping into the Great Basin from the Pacific NW. The first upper level trough moves through the area Monday morning through Monday evening with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected. This trough comes in a little sooner and moves a little further south than earlier model runs indicated.
335 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016 High pressure centered over the Missouri Valley this morning will slide east across the Quad State Region today and be centered over West Virginia by daybreak Monday.
555 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016 A broad upper-level longwave trough pattern across the country will bring periods of unsettled weather to much of the CONUS this week.
453 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 An unseasonably cold airmass will remain over the region today, while an upper level trough sits over the Great Lakes. a weak disturbance rotating around this trough may lead to a few lingering rain showers.
This system will bring a return to cooler temperatures and showery conditions with a few thunderstorms to much of Utah and southwest Wyoming.
322 AM MST SUN MAY 15 2016 Cooler air is beginning to move into the region as a Pacific low pressure system in the northwest U.