Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
238 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2020 Latest surface analysis indicated a high pressure system centered over the central Great Plains, with a weak cool front sagging south across West Texas that is now draped across the extreme southern Texas Panhandle. Temperatures will warm into the lower and middle 70s across much of the CWA for the afternoon tomorrow.
This will help keep overnight lows a tad warmer with temps reaching the upper 30s to lower 40s. Depending on how quickly the moisture returns to the lower levels, a few showers could develop.
802 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2020 Area will remain between weak front south of Florida and high pressure across the Mid-Atlantic coast. Models continue to show a weak inverted trough developing near to just offshore the coast, which will aid in weakening the low level onshore flow overnight. Lows will range in the low to mid 60s along the coast and upper 50s to low 60s inland.
/issued 238 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2020/ Latest surface analysis indicated a high pressure system centered over the central Great Plains, with a weak cool front sagging south across West Texas that is now draped across the extreme southern Texas Panhandle. Temperatures will warm into the lower and middle 70s across much of the CWA for the afternoon tomorrow.
Our area remains under the influence of a dry upper ridge over the eastern Pacific centered around 135W. Visible imagery showing some high clouds drifting southeast across our area ahead of the upper ridge.
Temperatures are currently running warmer than forecast, with the exception of the more sheltered eastern valleys. Before that happens, there should be a good opportunity to radiate, and another night of ridge/valley temperature differences is in the forecast.
852 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2020 High pressure over the northeastern United States will push eastward tonight into Sunday.
800 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2020 High pressure continues to slide east of the region this evening as a broad upper-trough begins to approach the lower-Mississippi Valley. While these fairly transparent clouds won't make much difference regarding overnight temperatures, southerly winds around 5 mph or so will help to keep the boundary mixed and warmer. As a result, expect lows about 10 degrees warmer than last night, in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees. Depending on how quickly the moisture returns to the lower levels, a few showers could develop.
While forecast soundings are not bullish developing low-level saturation, minus the NAM which the RH is traditionally biased on the high side with the existing snow pack, there is some potential for shallow patchy ground fog to develop prior to sunrise with mostly clear skies and light winds. Otherwise, southerly winds return Sunday morning, with a notable warmup into the middle 40s north to the lower 50s south half.
Still expect wind chills around -25 for a period tonight across our north and with lighter winds and slightly "warmer" temps further south I don't see a need to expand the advisory with this update. Currently, a cold front is pushing southeast across the region today. Winds shift from NW to S as the high shifts east.
929 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2020 A trough of low pressure should return light precipitation chances late tonight and Sunday.
At the surface, high pressure is centered over the western KS/NE border, keeping winds NWrly.
529 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2020 A weak cold front will slowly move through the area tonight progressing into southern IL and southern MO by daybreak on Sunday. The surface temperatures with any of this appear to be all above freezing. The flow aloft across our area briefly becomes quasi-zonal ahead of the next progressive trof and associated cold front.
646 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2020 High pressure moves slowly east this evening and overnight. Temperatures slightly warmer Sunday with highs in the middle/upper 50s across the Midlands and CSRA.
This trough will continue to approach our CWA tonight and swing across our CWA Sunday. Due to increasing cloud cover tonight, temperatures will be held warmer than normal; ranging from the lower 40s northeast to the lower 50s southwest. The cloud cover and rain will hold afternoon highs a degree or two cooler than normal Sunday.
428 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2020 High pressure moves slowly east this evening and overnight. Temperatures slightly warmer Sunday with highs in the middle/upper 50s across the Midlands and CSRA.
414 PM MST Sat Feb 15 2020 Current upper level analysis has broad trof across the northern CONUS with broad ridge off the West Coast. At the surface, mild westerly boundary layer flow persists with cold frontal boundary just to the north across North Dakota.
600 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2020 Currently, a cold front is pushing southeast across the region today. Winds shift from NW to S as the high shifts east.
borsum A backdoor cold front was moving W through NE MT this afternoon, producing a band of light snow. This energy will bring divergence to the area as it pushes into WY through Sunday, carving out a trough.
Gusty winds of 25-35 mph are likely late Sunday morning into the afternoon with a cold front passage.
Warmer temperatures are expected to slowly advance up the Interstate 86/84 corridor Sunday bring a mix of rain and snow to elevations below 5500 feet during the day.
518 PM MST Sat Feb 15 2020 We have issued a quick update to adjust the start time of the High Wind Warning for Bordeaux.
During Sun a short wave trough with a weak surface reflection tracks along the northern Gulf coast and crosses northern FL in the afternoon and evening. Then toward the end of the week a cold front followed by high pressure will increase winds into the 15-20 knot range.
Still temperatures have managed to climb into the low to mid 60s or pretty much in line with mid-February norms. A brief deepening of the low level southerlies will combine with extensive cloudiness to hold up overnight lows from 15 to 20 degrees above last night. Should see some sunshine in the wake of the system allowing for a return of even warmer daytime highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
/Tonight through Sunday Night/ Despite the abundance of cloud cover today, temperatures have still managed to climb into the mid to upper 50s over our northern zones while southern areas have reached the lower to mid 60s. Some patchy fog is also expected as the warm Gulf air transports northward over the cooler surface. Low temperatures will range through the 40s to lower 50s, much warmer compared to observed lows this morning with the cloud cover in place tonight.
649 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2020 A trough of low pressure should return light precipitation chances late tonight and Sunday.
617 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2020 High pressure will move to the east of Pennsylvania this afternoon and evening.
Could see some patchy fog develop, with the favored areas being along the east side of the Buffalo Ridge and potentially in the James Valley. Temperatures will struggle to cool Sunday evening as a warm front lifts north and southerly winds increase.
Snow is expected thru the day in the central mtn on Sun, with Lake County, especially the high elevations, seeing the highest accumulations.
316 PM MST Sat Feb 15 2020 Current upper level analysis has broad trof across the northern CONUS with broad ridge off the West Coast. At the surface, mild westerly boundary layer flow persists with cold frontal boundary just to the north across North Dakota.
Low temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 20s.
925 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2020 High pressure moves slowly east overnight. Temperatures slightly warmer Sunday with highs in the middle/upper 50s across the Midlands and CSRA.
Slightly warmer temperatures across the region Saturday. Though a passing overnight system will keep rain chances north of the Bay Area, winds will shift to the north on Sunday providing cooler temperatures.
Forecast Confidence is Medium to A few light snow showers exist along the incoming cold front near Green Bay. High pressure passes to the north on Sunday keeping winds out of the north and temps slightly cooler than normal. The high quickly kicks east as trough digs into the northern plains states Sunday into Sunday night. Models are indicating that the WAA triggered in response to the digging trough could bring enough moisture northward for very slight chances for light snow in the far NW portion of the area Sunday afternoon/evening.
These clouds are streaming in ahead of a broad upper trough that will bring cloudy skies and a maybe few light showers Sunday. The good news is that the clouds along with a steady south wind will make it 20-25 degrees warmer tonight than last night.
323 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2020 Currently, a cold front is pushing southeast across the region today. Winds shift from NW to S as the high shifts east.
727 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2020 A weak cold front over the Grt Lks will sag south across Pennsylvania Sunday.
530 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2020 Forecast Summary: Mild weather will continue into Sunday before before a cold front slides through the region bringing a chance for precipitation and cooler temperatures for a couple of days through mid week. Tonight through Sunday: Temperatures have warmed nicely across eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa this afternoon under full sunshine and northwest winds behind a cold front that slipped through the area this morning. Weak high pressure settling into the region behind the cold front tonight will shift east early Sunday, allowing south to southwest surface winds to return.
352 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2020 A weak cold front will slowly move through the area tonight progressing into southern IL and southern MO by daybreak on Sunday. The surface temperatures with any of this appear to be all above freezing. The flow aloft across our area briefly becomes quasi-zonal ahead of the next progressive trof and associated cold front.
Before that happens, there should be a good opportunity to radiate, and another night of ridge/valley temperature differences is in the forecast.
High pressure will bring dry weather and seasonable temperatures to central Indiana through tonight.
1217 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2020 A trough of low pressure has returned light precipitation to the area for today.
207 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2020 A warm front is moving into central North Dakota early this morning. Strong warm air advection at the low levels combined with a band of mid-level frontogenesis and steep mid-level lapse rates is producing an area of snow oriented northwest to southeast across the frontal boundary. Right on the heels of the warm front will be yet another cold front sweeping down from the north, bringing another shot of light snow, with possibly a rain-snow mix in the far southwest if the front moves in quickly enough. Another weak cold front swings through Monday afternoon and yet another front Monday night.
936 PM MST Sat Feb 15 2020 Current upper level analysis has broad trof across the northern CONUS with broad ridge off the West Coast. At the surface, mild westerly boundary layer flow persists with cold frontal boundary just to the north across North Dakota. A cold front will push through the area Sunday night into early Monday.
Monday will bring another strong cold front into western Kansas in the late morning into the early afternoon.
1019 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2020 Scattered showers continue to stream into the Upper Keys this evening, with one batch of showers moving across the Middle Keys, while a cluster of showers passed over parts of the Lower Keys earlier. Skies are partly to mostly cloudy along the island chain, with temperatures in the lower to mid 70s, and winds on land from the northeast to east at 5 to 10 mph.
The period begins with a frontal boundary and upper level trough passing through the region on Monday. Based on model trends, the upper level trough may pass through this CWA dry.
1252 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2020 High pressure moves slowly east overnight. Temperatures slightly warmer Sunday with highs in the middle/upper 50s across the Midlands and CSRA. With weak high pressure ridging conditions remain mostly dry.
JW 06Z TAFS: A cold front pushing down across the region this evening interacts with a deep moisture plume and produces widespread precipitation across the region. Following the overnight passage of the cold front, low stratus and fog with IFR conditions are still expected across extreme eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle through Sunday morning.
VFR will continue through early this afternoon with high and mid level cloud cover on the increase ahead of a weak cold front approaching from the NW. RG Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 41 60 53 65 / 10 10 20 70 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 39 59 50 64 / 10 10 10 40 80 Oak Ridge, TN 52 39 59 50 62 / 10 10 10 50 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 36 58 45 61 / 10 10 10 20 80.
Cloud cover (mostly highly level) continues to spread into the region from west to east as a weak, moisture-starved trough approaches the area. The main impact this trough will have is to swing winds around to the northwest tonight and an increase in cloud cover to BKN or OVC. With these additional clouds, lows tonight will only fall into the lower to middle 30s. Sunday will be dry, save for an isolated sprinkle in the KY Pennyrile or southwest IN, with temperatures a few degrees warmer compared to today. An area of low pressure will develop over the Central Plains and drag a cold front through the forecast area.
The low level Water Vapor Satellite satellite shows an area of drier air over Vancouver Island which will drop southeast overnight. JW 06Z TAFS: A cold front pushing down across the region this evening interacts with a deep moisture plume and produces widespread precipitation across the region. Following the overnight passage of the cold front, low stratus and fog with IFR conditions are still expected across extreme eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle through Sunday morning.
323 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2020 High pressure will move offshore this morning. A weak front will cross the area this evening, followed by another area of high pressure Monday.
Sfc lee trough to strengthen aft 16/12Z. Rain and snow showers and cooler temperatures return mid to late week, but the specifics are rather uncertain at this time.
This moisture will shift east later today just to be replaced with lower-level cloud cover associated with a broad upper trough swinging in from the Midwest. Could see a few very light showers or sprinkles later today as the trough axis pushes through, but moisture will be limited so rain chances are only 20-30 percent at best. A shift to quasi-zonal flow will bring temperatures up into the lower 60s across much of the area on Monday.
Even warmer on Sunday with afternoon sunshine. (Monday and Monday Night) One more warm day on Monday due to low level southwest flow and thermal ridge in the area.
While forecast soundings are not bullish developing low-level saturation, minus the NAM which the RH is traditionally biased on the high side with the existing snow pack, there is some potential for shallow patchy ground fog to develop prior to sunrise with mostly clear skies and light winds. Otherwise, southerly winds return Sunday morning, with a notable warmup into the middle 40s north to the lower 50s south half. The above normal temperatures will last one final day on Monday ahead of a cold front with similar highs as Sunday.
255 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2020 A weak surface trof will move slowly eastward through the the forecast area from today. Seasonably mild temperatures in the lower to mid 50s are expected. Warm advection will get underway again Monday ahead of the next cold front that will be moving slowly east into MO/IL.
Next system to quickly move through the region Thu Nt/Fri with a brief chance of showers ahead of the cold front. Cooler and drier high pressure to build into the region Fri into the weekend with temps close to seasonal averages.
319 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2020 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Some sunshine today - Snow to rain Monday Night - Cold midweek then warming toward weekend -- Some sunshine today-- A cold front will slowly sink south across our area this morning and as it does so it should clear the clouds for a few hours at least. Skies should be partly cloudy this afternoon behind the cold front since the air behind this front is not cold enough for lake effect snow showers.
344 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2020 Mostly cloudy and not as cold today with temperatures trending warmer through the first part of the week.
337 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2020 A trough of low pressure has returned light precipitation to the area for today.
Tonight Through Monday High pressure has weakened over the area and has expanded further east, with winds out of the south transporting warm air and moisture into the region. Additional moisture will enter the region from the NW, as a low amplitude mid and upper trough moves through the Plains early Monday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday evening as a low pressure system tracks through the state.
The low level Water Vapor Satellite satellite shows an area of drier air over Vancouver Island which will drop southeast overnight. A cold front pushing down across the region this evening will interact with this moisture plume and produce widespread precipitation across the region. Following passage of the cold front, low stratus and fog with IFR conditions are still expected across extreme eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle through Sunday morning.
Main precipitation is now underway and will continue through mid-morning in eastern Oregon, and early afternoon in western Idaho when the storm's cold front moves through. Exceptions will be along the ID/NV border where snow showers will continue until late evening, and in the central Idaho Mountains where they will continue through the night under the upper trough. Snow showers will expand southward into the Boise Mountains Monday as the upper trough axis moves through, ending Monday evening, followed by clearing and colder. Today's cold front will also be followed by gusty northwest winds in the Snake Basin this afternoon and early evening, strongest east of Mountain Home where speeds will reach 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
At the surface, high pressure is centered over the western KS/NE border, keeping winds NWrly. Even with increased clouds, thanks to winds turning to the SW and models showing a further moderating air mass, still looking at highs a touch warmer than today. Forecast highs look to reach the lower 40s in the north to near 50 in the south.
Sunday another mild day with temperatures another 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today in the west.
Attention then turns to Arctic cold front that eventually undergoes anticyclogenesis in the central plains. Across the PB/SE NM high temps on Tue will be 25-30 degrees cooler than on Mon! By Wed AM -RA is expected to 1st develop across the Lower Trans Pecos in assocn with upglide regime and then expand, in most all directions. Thur could be just as cold or colder than Wed? Warmer Fri-Sat, then we will be watching the next mid /upper-level trof moving into the desert SW.
Early in the work week, broad upper level troughing will be in place across the northern US and Canada.
Could see some patchy fog develop, with the favored areas being along the east side of the Buffalo Ridge and potentially in the James Valley. Temperatures will struggle to cool Sunday evening as a warm front lifts north and southerly winds increase. Could see a period of light icing Monday morning across northwest Iowa before cooler air works into the region from the northwest. The cooler air will push temperatures into the single digits and teens, leading to wind chills in the single digits above and below zero.
Highs on Sunday will range in the lower to mid 60s, while lows Sunday night should range from the upper 40s to lower 50s over our interior areas, with mid to upper 50s anticipated near the immediate coast.
The surface front over ORE is forecast to weaken (undergo frontolysis) on Sun as it literally crawls into the Nrn portion of our CWA Look for winds to pick up out of the N-E Sun nite and into Tue morning as high pressure builds across the Pac NW and into NV/Great Basin during this time. As the system moves east, the upper trough will deepen somewhat over the Great Basin and Central Plains regions. However, ensemble guidance continues to limit the deepening of the trough axis. Increased winds are still expected Monday as the trough deepens, though guidance is backing off somewhat on strength.
Temperatures acrs the area range from the upper 50s acrs cntl LA to the lower 60s along the I-10 corridor. Adjusted hourly temps/dewpoints to reflect recent observations as temperatures are running a few degrees warmer than fcst. Still temperatures have managed to climb into the low to mid 60s or pretty much in line with mid-February norms. A brief deepening of the low level southerlies will combine with extensive cloudiness to hold up overnight lows from 15 to 20 degrees above last night. Should see some sunshine in the wake of the system allowing for a return of even warmer daytime highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be on tap for Monday with a focus on a retreating warm frontal boundary across the area.
1041 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2020 A weak cold front over the Grt Lks will sag south across Pennsylvania Sunday.
1012 PM MST Sat Feb 15 2020 We have issued a quick update to adjust the start time of the High Wind Warning for Bordeaux. With the approach of the trough, mid and upper level flow will become favorable for orographic uplift in the Snowy and Sierra Madre Mountain Ranges. Strong rising motion over and near the Laramie range and along the Pine Ridge in Wyoming and Nebraska will also be favorable for snowfall Sunday through Monday.
Going into the overnight hours a surface cold front will move into the area before noon Monday.
1250 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2020 A trough of low pressure has returned light precipitation to the area for today.
High pressure continues to slide east of the region this evening as a broad upper-trough begins to approach the lower-Mississippi Valley. While these fairly transparent clouds won't make much difference regarding overnight temperatures, southerly winds around 5 mph or so will help to keep the boundary mixed and warmer. As a result, expect lows about 10 degrees warmer than last night, in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees. Depending on how quickly the moisture returns to the lower levels, a few showers could develop. Overnight lows on Sunday will be a few degrees warmer in the low to mid 40s. Daytime highs will be mild, reaching the lower 60s. Overnight lows will feel more like normal high temps for this time of year only falling into the low/mid 50s.
Dry conditions will prevail over the region with slightly cooler temperatures this afternoon.
MRM The low pressure system exits the region overnight Monday, leaving quasi-zonal flow aloft and a moderate amount of mid level moisture.
This will sweep another cold front across the forecast area ushering in a northerly wind.
/issued 400 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2020/ Latest sfc analysis shows an area of low pressure off the swrn LA coastline this morning, otherwise high pressure centered over the srn Atlantic region ridging swwd across the sern CONUS is trying to hold on. With the WAA setup which has been in place since late yesterday, temperatures are quite a bit warmer than 24 hours ago, with readings primarily in the 50s to lower 60s.
A warm front is moving into central North Dakota early this morning. Strong warm air advection at the low levels combined with a band of mid-level frontogenesis and steep mid-level lapse rates is producing an area of snow oriented northwest to southeast across the frontal boundary. Right on the heels of the warm front will be yet another cold front sweeping down from the north, bringing another shot of light snow, with possibly a rain-snow mix in the far southwest if the front moves in quickly enough. Another weak cold front swings through Monday afternoon and yet another front Monday night.
High pressure is centered to the north of the boundary across northern ND into south central Canada. Cold front passage tonight and early Monday will bring cooler air back to the area, with highs Monday in the upper 20s and 30s.