Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The eastern periphery of a warm frontal boundary is lifting north through middle and eastern TN this morning, bringing with it increasing low clouds across the TN valley. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 70 55 69 56 / 0 10 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 68 54 67 52 / 0 20 20 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 52 68 53 66 52 / 0 10 20 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 43 65 50 62 44 / 0 20 40 10 10.
High pressure will continue to settle southward with ridge axis across the area tonight, and then shifting toward the Lake Okeechobee region into tomorrow. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 50s most locations, with warmer than normal highs in the mid-upper 70s tomorrow.
Current temperatures across the island chain are in the upper 60s to lower 70s with dew points in the lower 60s. Meanwhile, deep layer ridging is nosing in from the west and pushing out an upper level trough that is centered just to our east. As the mean layer ridge moves in over the area it is bringing with it considerable dry air aloft.
A cold front is currently moving through northwest WI and is expected to drop high temperatures on Saturday across northeast MN approximately 25 degrees compared to today. NW WI is expected to rebound a little warmer with highs in the lower 20s.
Southwest flow will increase across the mountains and higher valleys by tomorrow afternoon ahead of the next wave rotating around the broad trough over the western states. A broad trough over the western US will dominate our weather pattern into the last week of the year.
Low pressure spinning along the coast of Washington state will slowly move eastward over the course of the upcoming holiday weekend. More notably, an arctic cold front will breach the Continental Divide this evening in the Glacier Park region. As the front interacts with the warmer, moist air from the southwest, heavy snow will become likely over eastern Flathead County including Highway 2 from Hungry Horse to Marias Pass, Essex, West Glacier, and Polebridge.
Weak sfc ridging and some clearing for Sat nt will cool low temps through the 20s and possibly into the upper teens away from Lake MI.
No major changes were needed for the eve update as a busy jet stream pattern is underway, with support for ascent increasing this evening coincident with continued warm and moist advection in the low levels. With ample forcing and plenty of moisture in the low and mid levels, amounts up to three quarters of an inch are possible before cold frontal passage Saturday night.
/issued 216 PM CST Fri Dec 24 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): Modest mid-level ridging will lie over the area in the short term, lending to a stable, warm and dry forecast. As well, high pressure over the Gulf will support south winds which will be enhanced by Plains low pressure. Rest of this afternoon will remain windy along the lower Texas coast.
657 PM EST Fri Dec 24 2021 Aviation -A Mild Christmas Current temps in the 40s to near 50 holding nearly steady much of tonight at usually mild values for Christmas Eve due to moist southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. The rain and fog will exit early Saturday with the cold frontal passage and arrival of drier air. It's possible we'll even see a few hours of sunshine in the afternoon if we can lose the low clouds as guidance suggests.
The barrier islands will stay in the low/mid 60s overnight due to persistent, light southeast flow.
Late morning satellite images show the low pressure center that brought the precipitation to the region moving off to the east. The dry conditions will be short lived however as a series of short waves moving through the long wave trough sitting off the west coasts approaches the area tomorrow.
It could potentially be a record breaking Christmas across Southeast Texas as temps climb to the low 80s on Saturday.
Lingering low cloudiness continues to depart eastern sections with a weak front/pressure trough entering western sections and switching winds to northwest.
720 PM MST Fri Dec 24 2021 The main event is over for our area, but lingering moisture feeding upslope over the higher terrain will continue snow showers and add to the snow totals for this event overnight. Southwest flow will increase across the mountains and higher valleys by tomorrow afternoon ahead of the next wave rotating around the broad trough over the western states. A broad trough over the western US will dominate our weather pattern into the last week of the year.
843 PM CST Fri Dec 24 2021 Pressure gradient remains very tight across the Southern Plains late this evening and while we are losing the stronger gusts we saw earlier today, sustained winds across most areas are remaining near the lower end of our Lake Wind Advisory criteria and for this reason, will keep the advisory as is for the evening update.
636 PM EST Fri Dec 24 2021 Warm weather will last through the weekend as high pressure moves offshore.
925 PM EST Fri Dec 24 2021 Warm weather will last through the weekend as high pressure moves offshore.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 69 55 70 56 / 10 10 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 67 54 67 51 / 10 20 20 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 54 66 52 66 51 / 10 20 20 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 63 51 62 43 / 10 30 30 10 0.
Surface winds: Generally SE-SW 10-15kts except gusts 20-25kts over the higher terrain outside of the Snake River Plain region.
A cold front is progressing through western Kansas during the overnight and should be through the whole area by day break. Overall we should have sunny skies through most of the day and increasing clouds by late afternoon with a lee side trough moving in from the west. Highs will be in the low to mid 60s.
1002 PM CST Fri Dec 24 2021 High clouds continue to increase across our airspace late this evening but the low clouds are taking their time getting up here from SE TX and S LA. /issued 843 PM CST Fri Dec 24 2021/ Pressure gradient remains very tight across the Southern Plains late this evening and while we are losing the stronger gusts we saw earlier today, sustained winds across most areas are remaining near the lower end of our Lake Wind Advisory criteria and for this reason, will keep the advisory as is for the evening update.
Really could not have asked for a better day weather-wise with high pressure remaining in control. Tomorrow will be a bit warmer but overall still nice. High pressure will remain over the region for the next few days, keeping pleasant marine conditions in place.
131 AM EST Sat Dec 25 2021 Models continue to depict broad high pressure firmly over the region through the short term.
Surface heating will help erode the low ceilings by tomorrow afternoon, with winds finally diminishing after 00Z.
The latest surface analysis places a 996mb low pressure near Wichita, Kansas with 1022mb high near Orlando, Florida. Lows will be warmer tonight so still with a warmer start still expect a few records to be broken on Christmas Day. A cold front will begin to enter into Northeast Arkansas around sunset Christmas Day.
1156 PM EST Fri Dec 24 2021 A warm and wet Christmas Saturday is expected ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will cross the area this afternoon, leading to cooler weather Saturday night and a brief break in rainfall.
Even so, it should temporarily suppress the thermal ridge to the south with cooler temperatures. Highs should be ~10 to 15 deg F cooler than today.
225 AM CST Sat Dec 25 2021 - Quiet Christmas Day, partly sunny, high temperatures in the 50s along and north of the Missouri River and in the lower 60s F to the south.
1121 PM MST Fri Dec 24 2021 Broad H5 trough across the western US will continue to provide westerly flow across the state through the short term period. Winter highlights will remain the same for tonight, with warnings for the higher elevations, and advisories for the lower western valleys. Tomorrow, the sfc flow turns more from the southwest as the next trough buckles along the west coast and comes inland.
ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 55 70 56 70 / 10 10 10 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 54 67 51 68 / 20 20 10 0 20 Oak Ridge, TN 66 52 66 51 67 / 20 20 10 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 51 62 43 65 / 30 30 10 0 30.
1044 PM MST Fri Dec 24 2021 The main event is over for our area, but lingering moisture feeding upslope over the higher terrain will continue snow showers and add to the snow totals for this event overnight. Southwest flow will increase across the mountains and higher valleys by tomorrow afternoon ahead of the next wave rotating around the broad trough over the western states. A broad trough over the western US will dominate our weather pattern into the last week of the year.
While it'll be a little cooler tomorrow behind the front, temperatures in the 70s aren't done with us just yet.
1203 AM EST Sat Dec 25 2021 Aviation -A Mild Christmas Current temps in the 40s to near 50 holding nearly steady much of tonight at usually mild values for Christmas Eve due to moist southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. The rain and fog will exit early Saturday with the cold frontal passage and arrival of drier air. It's possible we'll even see a few hours of sunshine in the afternoon if we can lose the low clouds as guidance suggests.
Surface winds: Generally SE-SW 5-15kt except gusts 20-25kt over the higher terrain outside of the Snake River Plain region.
246 AM CST Sat Dec 25 2021 A cold front extended from southern Lake Michigan, through northern Illinois, into Missouri during the overnight hours. Mild zonal flow will keep Christmas Day temperatures well above normal, although cooler than yesterday. Expect highs in the low 40s north to low 50s south, 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal averages.
Sunday night, a low pressure system is expected to pass to the north of the CWA. Currently, the high temperatures forecasted in the grids will cause many locations across the state to rival daily record high temperatures.
Snow levels will occasionally lower into the lower foothills and the mountain passes through Kern County. The next approaching low pressure system is pushing into the northwest coast and associated shower activity is currently tracking inland to the north of our area. Behind this system, another trough will drop out of the northeast Pacific and begin impacting our area by Sunday evening as rain and mountain snow push southward. This cold storm system will also drop snow levels down around 2000 ft and likely lead to impactful snow accumulations in the lower foothill communities and on the Kern mountain passes.
535 AM CST Sat Dec 25 2021 After a record setting high of 64 degrees in Grand Island on Christmas Eve (Dec 24th), it will be a few degree cooler today. Although we will see slightly cooler temperatures aloft today compared to yesterday, a downslope westerly wind by late morning into this afternoon should still help to push temperatures back to well above normal. There will be a warm front lifting north with east southeast winds ahead of the front and southwesterly winds behind the front.
421 AM EST Sat Dec 25 2021 Currently - A surface pressure ridge extends west southwestward from the Atlantic, across North and Central Florida, and through the Gulf of Mexico. The flow aloft is nearly zonal and lower through mid level ridging dominates across our broader region. Forecast soundings suggest the low level lift will dissipate through the day. As the previously mentioned mid latitude trough moves out to sea and expands, the nearby ridge will ball up around Florida.
513 AM CST Sat Dec 25 2021 - Quiet Christmas Day, partly sunny, high temperatures in the 50s along and north of the Missouri River and in the lower 60s F to the south.
308 AM CST Sat Dec 25 2021 After a record setting high of 64 degrees in Grand Island on Christmas Eve (Dec 24th), it will be a few degree cooler today. Although we will see slightly cooler temperatures aloft today compared to yesterday, a downslope westerly wind by late morning into this afternoon should still help to push temperatures back to well above normal. There will be a warm front lifting north with east southeast winds ahead of the front and southwesterly winds behind the front.
Cooler air will begin to spread into the area as rain develops with some fog forming behind a cold front. Partly cloudy skies and a little cooler weather will prevail Sunday with highs in the 40s.
A cold front extended from southern Lake Michigan, through northern Illinois, into Missouri during the overnight hours. Mild zonal flow will keep Christmas Day temperatures well above normal, although cooler than yesterday. Expect highs in the low 40s north to low 50s south, 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal averages.
High pressure behind the front will bring temperatures down into the lower 50s across these areas with the remainder of the ArkLaTex to experience overnight lows in the lower 60s. Cooler temperatures to be short lived as frontal boundary to lift back north on Sunday with afternoon highs again approaching 80 degrees across much of the region.
(Today) A dryline is moving east across northeast Oklahoma early this morning, while a cold front across southern Kansas is poised to move into far northeast Oklahoma by sunrise.
Despite the passage of a cold front, highs today will be a few degrees above normal. Sunday may start out with a little sunshine but clouds will increase during the afternoon ahead of an approaching upper trough.
Today will be slightly cooler than yesterday as a weak Pacific Front passes through the region and mid- lvl hghts decrease, especially across the northwest portion of our forecast area. The High Wind Warning remains in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains through this afternoon due to a persistent 55-60 kt mid-lvl jet.
We're likely to see the dense fog persist for a few more hours until winds become northwesterly behind the cold front. Pockets of low pressure were noted along a frontal boundary that stretched from near Saginaw Bay southwest to St Louis. These waves of low pressure are resulting in light rain along the boundary and this rain stretches southwest to Missouri. Precipitation will develop as snow, before it changes over to a brief period of freezing rain and then rain. The potential exist for a half inch to inch of snow before the transition to freezing rain and then rain.
A ridge of high pressure will provide mainly clear skies and light north winds tonight. Precipitation will initially start out as snow and then as we lose ice aloft, it will transition to freezing rain.
A warm and dry Christmas Day is expected across Southeast TX as the region remains dominated by a mid to upper level subtropical ridge centered over the eastern coast of MX. Highs will once again reach the low to mid 80s. Highs will climb into the low 80s.
Orographics working on residual moisture left over from the atmospheric river which brought significant snowfall to the area were responsible for the persistent snow showers over the higher terrain. Flow aloft shifts to the southwest as the trough along the West Coast deepens. Meanwhile, winds increase significantly as a 160+ knot jet moves overhead and ridge level wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph become possible.
An amplified pattern across North America will continue to see a deep mean trough position over the west with a strong ridge from the central Pacific into southwest Alaska, and high pressure downstream over southeastern states. A series of impulses will split down the back side of the trough position and into our area through the coming week, with cooler temperatures, gusty winds at times, and periods of valley rain and mountain snow.
458 AM CST Sat Dec 25 2021 After a record setting high of 64 degrees in Grand Island on Christmas Eve (Dec 24th), it will be a few degree cooler today. Although we will see slightly cooler temperatures aloft today compared to yesterday, a downslope westerly wind by late morning into this afternoon should still help to push temperatures back to well above normal. There will be a warm front lifting north with east southeast winds ahead of the front and southwesterly winds behind the front.
521 AM CST Sat Dec 25 2021 (Today) A dryline is moving east across northeast Oklahoma early this morning, while a cold front across southern Kansas is poised to move into far northeast Oklahoma by sunrise.
Snow shower activity will focus across northwest Montana this afternoon and evening with the passage of an upper level trough.
952 AM EST Sat Dec 25 2021 A dry and warmer than normal Christmas Day is in store for east central Florida. Skies will be sunny to mostly sunny with ridge axis toward to just south of Lake Okeechobee keeping winds out of the south to west-southwest across central Florida. (Previous Discussion) The Atlantic ridge axis is slipping south across central FL and the adjacent Atlc early this morning and wind flow is responding by veering out of the south. The ridge axis will flatten during the day which will produce offshore (W/SW) flow 10-15 knots across the Volusia and Brevard waters. A lighter southerly flow 5-10 knots is expected over the southern waters, closer to the ridge axis.
723 AM EST Sat Dec 25 2021 Rain will persist through much of Christmas day with the approach/passage of a cold front. Cooler weather will return Saturday night.
While these temperatures are well above average, they'll likely stay just under any record highs due to the increased cloud coverage in the lower levels. Forecast highs approach the mid to upper 70s this afternoon, with the coolest temperatures occurring along the coast due to moderation from the cooler Gulf waters.
Temps are running a bit warmer than forecast but afternoon highs are already forecast a couple degrees above guidance. Many places are still mixing down the higher winds, and expect that to become more common as the sun rises. Small chance for a brief round of showers/drizzle at KTRI, but chances are too slim to mention as a FM group, so have a TEMPO group during the highest chance for rain. ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 55 70 57 69 / 10 10 10 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 54 67 52 68 / 10 20 10 0 30 Oak Ridge, TN 66 53 66 52 66 / 10 20 10 0 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 51 62 45 65 / 20 30 10 0 30.
Also, adjusted sky cover accounting for the high cloud cover across the region.
A cold front will begin sinking into Northeast Arkansas over the next couple of hours. The front will then lift back to the north as a warm front Sunday morning.
High pressure will prevail through Sunday with light southwesterly surface winds.
Upper level strong high pressure and ridging in the Gulf of Mexico will continue to be the dominant pattern for the next few days. As a result, the warmer than average temperatures will continue to persist through the next few days.
1159 AM EST Sat Dec 25 2021 Rain will persist through much of Christmas day with the approach/passage of a cold front. Cooler weather will return Saturday night.
Both of these locations were much warmer than these this morning, but temps are expected to drop tonight so the question will be if we fall below those temps before midnight or not.
After a record setting high of 64 degrees in Grand Island on Christmas Eve (Dec 24th), it will be a few degree cooler today. Although we will see slightly cooler temperatures aloft today compared to yesterday, a downslope westerly wind by late morning into this afternoon should still help to push temperatures back to well above normal. There will be a warm front lifting north with east southeast winds ahead of the front and southwesterly winds behind the front.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed a very weak area of high pressure over eastern WI and a second high pressure over south- central Canada.
These southeast winds will be very short lived as a mean layer ridge is entering the western Gulf of Mexico. As the high pushes further to the east and across the Bahamas, it may draw in moisture around the periphery. Breezes will remained backed from the northeast as a ridge consolidates around Florida. This ridge will then slide to the east of the Florida Peninsula, leading to freshening breezes and clocking around to the east and southeast once again.
Cooler air will begin to spread into the area as rain develops with some fog forming behind a cold front tonight. Upper level jet dynamics were helping precipitation to develop over the area as a cold front as sinking south out of Lower Michigan. The mild and active pattern will continue into this upcoming week as additional impulses eject northeast out of a highly amplified trof over western North America. Light wet snow accumulations Sunday night near the Michigan border but travel issues are not expected at this time given temperatures staying around or above freezing.
Showers will end by tonight with seasonably cooler air returning and dry conditions expected on Sunday.
Temps are running a bit warmer than forecast but afternoon highs are already forecast a couple degrees above guidance. McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 70 57 69 60 / 10 10 0 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 67 52 68 59 / 20 10 0 30 20 Oak Ridge, TN 53 66 52 66 59 / 20 10 0 30 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 62 45 65 52 / 30 10 0 30 30.
Lows tonight will be in the 50s out west and in the lower 60s for the eastern areas.
Despite a high pressure cell pushing south and settling across the Bahamas, we have managed to squeeze out some showers. Looking at the VAD wind profile we can see a northeast wind in the lowest portion of the boundary layer with an east to southeast wind just above. Otherwise, it has only sprinkled in the lower Keys thus far. The biggest change was to add a Small Craft Exercise Caution headlined for the waters west of the Seven Mile Bridge with the exception of the deep Gulf waters.
(This evening through Sunday) Critical fire weather concerns will return on Sunday afternoon as high pressure continues to sit across the region.
Afternoon high temperatures will push into the 60s for the entire CWA with overnight lows dropping into the 30s, likely staying above the freezing mark getting close in northwestern counties. A leeside trough will develop overnight Saturday over eastern Colorado increasing southwest winds by mid to late morning.
300 PM CST Sat Dec 25 2021 Overview: The large scale mid tropospheric pattern will favor a trough to our west the next 7 days.
Clear and dry conditions due to high pressure ridging will continue on through the rest of Christmas Day, with high temperatures reaching up into the mid 70s throughout the forecast area.
A cold front moves across late Christmas/Saturday night.
157 PM CST Sat Dec 25 2021 Large scale troughing in the western CONUS will continue in the short term with southwesterly to zonal flow overhead.
High pressure off the east coast will interact with a midwest cold front to produce a few gusty breezes later today after the fog dissipates and temperatures reach the 70s.
Ridge aloft over the Gulf of Mexico begins to nudge slowly eastward into the area, as high pressure at the surface remains in place across Florida. A weak frontal trough looks to largely pass to the east late Sunday into Sunday night as the dominant deep layer ridge blocks this boundary from moving through the area. This will continue a dry pattern with warmer than normal highs continuing on Sunday.
1112 AM CST Sat Dec 25 2021 - Quiet Christmas Day, partly sunny, high temperatures in the 50s along and north of the Missouri River and in the lower 60s F to the south.
Both of these locations were much warmer than these this morning, but temps are expected to drop tonight so the question will be if we fall below those temps before midnight or not. A cold front will drop southward across the area overnight.
Dry high pressure ridge access remained stuck over South Florida through the next 7 days.
Cooler than yesterday as well, which isn't hard at all to do given extreme temps we saw for Christmas Eve.
A weak bubble of high pressure will be building mainly over AR tonight. So with lower dew points tonight, we should see some fog predawn in the cooler air in addition to more low clouds overnight. Highs should be just a hair cooler tomorrow with the additional clouds lingering moreso into the afternoon.
Snow levels will occasionally lower into the lower foothills and the mountain passes through Kern County.