Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SOME WET AND WARMER WEATHER EARLY THIS WEEK TURNING DRY AND SHORT TERM. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND STALLS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND MOVES EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF COAST STATES ON TUESDAY ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT.
915 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 AM UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. WESTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH DIGS TO OUR WEST. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER AND THE ECMWF TAKES THE LOW A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH.
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST TO OUR EAST BY THIS EVENING, ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE PLATEAU AND KEEPING CIGS IFR OR BELOW AT CSV THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
The models have come into better agreement on a more southern track and also a slightly warmer solution. There remains some potential for a brief trnasition to snow across mainly the higher terrain of northwest Arkansas before the precipitation ends Tuesday night.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH DIGS TO OUR WEST. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER AND THE ECMWF TAKES THE LOW A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH.
702 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY TODAY. BRINGING FAIR AND COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE KEYSTONE STATE THROUGH TONIGHT.
407 AM PST MON FEB 22 2016 DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE PATTERN.
426 AM MST MON FEB 22 2016 TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING CARVES OUT AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS Q-G FORCING WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH INCREASES. A SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING. BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES.
533 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016 AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD TODAY WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE REGION. LIMITED MIXING WINDS AND CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER.
1024 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE REACHING NEWFOUNDLAND TUESDAY NIGHT.
527 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016 LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW RESIDES SOUTH OF KENTUCKY ALLOWING FOR COOLER. AFTER THE LOW SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST. THE FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL USHER IN MUCH WARMER AIR AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. MORNING LOWS WILL VARY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE FREEZING MARK IN THE NORTH BUT STAY IN THE 40S TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. A LARGE AND INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL TAPER TODAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW.
High pressure at the surface will keep the region dry through tonight.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 64 51 60 51 / 60 60 60 90 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 61 47 62 50 / 20 60 40 80 OAK RIDGE, TN 60 47 61 50 / 20 50 40 90 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 60 43 57 45 / 20 60 50 60.
600 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016 FINAL MOISTURE-STARVED WAVE IS SLIDING THRU MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE BROAD 500 MB TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS OUR SRN CWA. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S/SW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS EAST OF MICHIGAN. ERN EDGE OF A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CLIP OUR CWA TONIGHT.
This will help to keep temperatures closer to seasonal normals, generally in the low to mid 60s. The main concern at this point looks to be hail, given the aforementioned updrafts and cool mid/upper level temperatures associated with the upper level trough. The highest rainfall totals look to be across the eastern half of the forecast area. Overnight lows will range from the low 40s across the Big Country to near 50 across the Interstate 10 corridor. (Tuesday through Monday) Potent upper level low will close off over the Big Country near Abilene on Tuesday morning and then push quickly east.
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCES DIVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER TX LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY ON TUESDAY. THIS SECOND WAVE OF CONVECTION WILL WARRANT MUCH CONCERN AS THE STRONG UPPER LOW OVER TX KICKS EAST AND INTERACTS WITH INCREASING AREA OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
725 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER AND MID SUMMER WARMTH ON SUNDAY.
1046 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH TO FORM OVER THE EAST COAST. IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH MCS OVER ILLINOIS WILL ROTATE SOUTH AROUND THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 105.
928 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SHIFTS OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT.
1049 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND.
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST AND MID-UPPER 70S INLAND. MODEST INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AS WELL AS STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LATER SEA BREEZE WILL HELP BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE NEAR NORMAL RANGE. OFFSHORE FLOW AND DELAYED SEA BREEZE WILL MEAN CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST AND MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES TO 10-15KTS NORTH OF THE CAPE OVERNIGHT AS RIDGE AXIS DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH AROUND 10KTS FURTHER SOUTH. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOLID SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15KTS SUN EVENING AND NIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN RIDGE AXIS TO OUR SOUTH AND FRONTAL TROUGH DROPPING INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA.
1148 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 Tonight: A complex of thunderstorms over southern Iowa and far northern Missouri during the morning hours has left an outflow boundary that currently stretches along/near the Highway 36 corridor.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WILL PUSH HIGHS UPWARD SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON SUNDAY AND THEN MAINTAIN HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS TEXAS FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN START TO SHIFT BACK TO THE EAST.
MONSOON MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO NORTHERN ARIZONA AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE OVER EASTERN ARIZONA WITH LESS COVERAGE HEADING FURTHER WEST.
1013 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
924 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 01Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTY AND GULF OF MEXICO LIE UNDER AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF WEST TO EAST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. OUR FORECAST AREA RESIDES ON THE EASTERN TO SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE PROVIDING A DEEP LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THE DEEP LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST WATERS.
623 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 Tonight: A complex of thunderstorms over southern Iowa and far northern Missouri during the morning hours has left an outflow boundary that currently stretches along/near the Highway 36 corridor.
RETROGRADING RIDGE WILL SETTLE INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AS WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.
813 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND.
1125 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2015 A flat upper ridge centered over over the Arklatex region will retrograde a bit back into the Plains Sunday then amplify a bit. A blend of guidance puts afternoon max heat index values around 98-103 deg over the region with the higher values over the western and northern cwfa. The upper level ridge axis continues to amplify out to our west over the Plains Mon-Tue. Some differences exist with medium range guidance with regards to the position and amplitude of the upper ridge by Thu-Sat with the GFS a little less bullish with precip chances versus the ECMWF. The GFS keeps the upper ridge a bit farther north and closer to the cwfa. VFR conditions expected through the period with upper level ridge keeping convection to our north through Sunday evening.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WILL PUSH HIGHS UPWARD SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON SUNDAY AND THEN MAINTAIN HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. 75 /ISSUED 643 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AIRSPACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND KEEP VFR CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS TEXAS FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN START TO SHIFT BACK TO THE EAST.
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
832 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
1031 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER AND MID SUMMER WARMTH ON SUNDAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS ON THE DECLINE THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST AND A MARINE PUSH HELPS STABILIZE THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL TURN THE FLOW SOUTHERLY ONCE MORE TOMORROW WITH ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
813 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH TO FORM OVER THE EAST COAST. IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
/ISSUED 346 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2015/ (Tonight and Sunday) Quiet weather in the short term, with the upper level high pressure become centered directly over the area by Sunday morning.
951 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 594 DAM 5H RIDGE ENVELOPING THE STATE. EASTERN BASED MID-LEVEL RIDGING ALSO EXPANDING WESTWARD AND STRENGTHENING THUS. VERY LOW CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT MARITIME SHOWERS INITIATED BY THE PASSAGE OF WEAK OFFSHORE WAVES MOVING AROUND (OR UNDER) THIS ALL- LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN.
1220 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
/ISSUED 319 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015/ UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.
/ISSUED 309 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015/ UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS/WESTERN LOUISIANA WITH RIDGING UP THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO OHIO. SMALL COMPLEX OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS EMBEDDED WITHIN SHORT WAVE RUNNING ACROSS TOP OF RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTSOUTHEAST NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
The subtropical ridge will dominate the synoptic pattern, providing large scale subsidence and warming aloft. Expect a warming trend through midweek as 500mb heights climb as high as 597 dam with the anticyclone centered directly overhead.
1021 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 CURRENTLY - A WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS IS SPLIT BY SOUTH FLORIDA. THE ISLAND CLOUD LINE WAS ABLE TO DEVELOP A COUPLE OF TIMES OVER THE LOWER KEYS. SHORT TERM UPDATE - RATHER WEAK FLOW WILL PERSIST AS THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN SPLIT AND NEARBY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT DUE TO A WEAK RIDGE AXIS SPLIT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
643 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AIRSPACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND KEEP VFR CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS TEXAS FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN START TO SHIFT BACK TO THE EAST.
DRY AND HOT AIR WAS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THIS EVENING WITH A 925MB /~2800 FEET/ TEMPERATURE OF 24C AND 850MB /~5200 FEET/ TEMPERATURE OF 19C. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ABLE TO FORM WITH THE HIGH /WARM/ TEMPERATURES ALOFT. BUT WINDS WERE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE ALLOWING THE STORMS TO SIT AND DROP THEIR RAIN IN A VERY LOCALIZED AREA.
STILL CANT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM FORMING ALONG THE DRY LINE EAST OF MOBRIDGE AND SLOWLY PROPAGATING EAST AT OR AFTER SUNSET. BUT ALSO ALONG THE SURFACE TROF IF WE CAN BREAK THE CAP. WITH BISMARCK 18Z SOUNDING INDICATING A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN THE LOW 90S.
MAINLY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION ASSERTING ITSELF.
639 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 EVEN THOUGH THERE WAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 19Z. THIS WILL BE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A WARM FRONT INTERACTING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY HAMPER THUNDERSTORMS. HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER 70S IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 70 92 73 92 / 20 30 20 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 70 88 71 88 / 20 40 30 40 OAK RIDGE, TN 70 88 71 87 / 10 40 30 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 66 84 67 84 / 10 40 40 60.
A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION AND THEREFORE EXPECT HOT AND DRY DAYS MOVING FORWARD. ONLY THREE MONTHS AWAY FROM THE COOLER WEATHER. MORNING LCH SOUNDING INDICATING A DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT RETROGRADING OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WELL INTO THE COMING NEW WEEK.
NEWEST MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE FOR TOMORROW AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS INTO S-CENTRAL OREGON TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOW- MID 70S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTER CONTINUES TO SLIDE WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AS TROUGH RESIDES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION WITH TROUGH AXIS DIPPING INTO COASTAL SE GA AND COASTAL NE FL. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL BISECT THE SE GA AND NE FL INTERIOR REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
917 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE EARLY TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER UTAH THIS MORNING. AND UPPER RIDGING WILL EXTEND WESTWARD AND BUILD WITH TIME.
100 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WITH LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. LOW CLOUDS HAVE OVERTAKEN MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA COURTESY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS FROM RECENT RAINFALL AS WELL AS INCREASING HUMIDITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE AND COLD FRONT. THIS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SOMEWHAT TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING IN THIS AFTERNOON. SERIES OF SHRTWV'S OVER SWRN CANADA/NE PAC EXPECTED TO TOP WRN RIDGE AND DROP SEWD INTO THE MID MS/LWR OH VALLEY MID-WEEK. REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF OUR CWA FOR DRY WX HERE WED-THU AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVG SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GRTLKS DOMINATES.
947 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF MAINE WEDNESDAY.
AS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE AREA COOLER THROUGH THE MORNING. THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND HOT.
ACTIVITY SHOULD LINGER FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE BL MIXING AND DISRUPTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET LEADS TO ITS DEMISE.
THE GENERAL PATTERN OVER THE SHORT TERM IS DEFINED BY A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES THAT HAVE SUPPRESSED THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. PROFILES SUPPORT ONLY ELEVATED CONVECTION HOWEVER AS NORTHEAST FLOW HAS LENT TO A COOLER/DRIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. MORE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS REMNANTS FROM STRONG AFTERNOON STORMS IN THE HIGH PLAINS PUSH IN AFTER DARK.
UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH THE AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BECOME AT LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 85 69 84 70 / 60 60 60 70 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 83 67 81 68 / 60 60 60 70 OAK RIDGE, TN 83 66 80 67 / 60 60 60 70 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 81 64 79 64 / 60 60 60 70.
WITH STRONGER SYNOPTIC FORCING MIGHT ADD SOME STRONGER WINDS FOR SSI LATER TODAY, GIVEN A RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT OVER US AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK.
FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND DRIER CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND CLOUD COVER IN PLACE.
927 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 AN SURFACE ANTICYCLONE IS PARKED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA THIS MORNING. A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL LIFT OUT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND GAIN LATITUDE RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN WINDS OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.
920 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HEDGED A BIT COOLER ON MAXES IN SOUTHEAST KS WHERE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS/WETTER SOILS. BUT HEDGED WARMER AT MOST LOCATIONS. -HOWERTON OVERALL THEME IS A SLIGHT BREAKDOWN OF WESTERN RIDGE. TRENDED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER ON THOSE DAYS/AREAS WHEN PRECIPITATION APPEARS LESS LIKELY. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITY.
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A LARGE UPPER HIGH OVER UTAH WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND ELONGATE IN NW TO SE FASHION.
927 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WAS NORTH OF THE AREA HAS SHIFTED AWAY SO ANTICIPATE SOME WHAT LESS COVERAGE TODAY AND LATER IN AFTERNOON WITH INLAND LOCATIONS FAVORED.
951 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND HOT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER LAKE MICH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. IN THE SHORTER TERM, TONIGHT WILL SEE THE DWINDLING OF ANY ACTIVITY LEFT OVER FROM POTENTIAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON, BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT THE HIGHER POPS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER WAVE DIVES ALMOST STRAIGHT SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND DOWN ALONG THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY.
Will monitor the weak cold front sliding southeast through northern IL for any afternoon development. The atmosphere will destabilize this afternoon due to daytime heating, especially across IL near the axis of the upper level trough centered over the Great Lakes region where mid level temperatures will be a little colder and hence lapse rates steeper.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SUPPRESS THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U. WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WALLOWAS AND THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST IN THE LOWER BASIN OF WASHINGTON, BUT GENERALLY WILL BE 103 DEGREES OR LESS.
630 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015 LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER LAKE MICH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. IN THE SHORTER TERM, TONIGHT WILL SEE THE DWINDLING OF ANY ACTIVITY LEFT OVER FROM POTENTIAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON, BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT THE HIGHER POPS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER WAVE DIVES ALMOST STRAIGHT SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND DOWN ALONG THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY.
AND REMAIN IN THE 12-15 KT RANGE AS THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENUF TO THE FCST AREA TO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH ABV NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
THE MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH AN MCS ORGANIZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF MS AND AL AND PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD. THE IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICS COUPLED WITH SHEAR THAT IS A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THANKS TO THE UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO YIELD SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
740 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
1038 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND. THE FORECAST AREA WILL RESIDE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WHILE A PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED INLAND. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
DID INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO THETA E RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND RECENT HIRES MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PAST MIDNIGHT. STILL A MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AROUND SO CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS LINGERING PAST MIDNIGHT.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE TROUGH ALONG WITH LINGERING MOISTURE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SWD THROUGH THE STATE TNT WITH COOL LOW TEMPS.
1203 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HEDGED A BIT COOLER ON MAXES IN SOUTHEAST KS WHERE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS/WETTER SOILS. BUT HEDGED WARMER AT MOST LOCATIONS. -HOWERTON OVERALL THEME IS A SLIGHT BREAKDOWN OF WESTERN RIDGE. TRENDED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER ON THOSE DAYS/AREAS WHEN PRECIPITATION APPEARS LESS LIKELY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
920 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015 A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION TODAY BETWEEN RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH AND MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LOWER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW 90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
739 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF MAINE WEDNESDAY.
757 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 AVIATION SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AS THEY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND A FRONT.
625 PM EDT THU APR 14 2016 AVIATION A LENGTHY STRETCH OF DRY AND MILD WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.