Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As the night progresses, the upper trof will move eastward and draw mostly mid-level moisture into the Ohio Valley, but low levels will be slow to saturate as shallow easterly flow persists. By Friday night, latest models are more progressive in pushing the higher precip amounts off to our east, which will limit our total QPF to just under 1 inch across a decent chunk of the area. 5 inches on average, so at least localized nuisance flooding is likely, especially if we assume the low end of Flash Flood Guidance (around 1.
With the departure of the upper trough responsible for the earlier round of precipitation, the ingredients are in place for fog development overnight.
943 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 High pressure will build to the east coast through Friday.
The latest water vapor satellite shows an upper level low pressure system spinning across southwestern Oregon at this time. This upper low was responsible for bringing scattered showers to the area earlier this evening. As the upper low slowly drops south into Northern California late tonight models are in agreement that an area of precipitation will breakout over Klamath and Lake Counties extending into portions of southern Deschutes and Crook Counties. By Friday morning there remains some disagreement on the exact location of a band of precipitation which is forecast to swing around the upper low from SE to NW. At this time the highest chances for showers and possible thunderstorms will be across the eastern half of the forecast area.
As an area of low pressure approaches the region overnight.
853 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 High pressure will build over the area through Friday morning.
A low pressure system is moving northeast into the western North Atlantic allowing the subtropical ridge to build west across the Florida peninsula. This evening's RAOB observation sampled a weakly unstable profile, which will never be realized because of significant inhibition in the lower troposphere.
654 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016 Closed low over the Pacific Northwest. Ridge from the northern plains into central Canada. There is closed low over the northeast conus with an upper trough along the eastern seaboard. With instability some increasing moisture along the trough will keep thunderstorms in the forecast.
1156 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 High pressure building southeast into the region will bring a clear to partly cloudy and chilly night tonight.
Conditions throughout the Mid-South today are more reminiscent of mid October than mid May with temperature readings only topping out in the low to mid 70s, dew points ranging from the low 40s to the mid 50s, and mostly clear skies. However, no severe storms are expected due to the area being worked over by the time the cold front moves through the area.
just a notch warmer than last. HIGH High pressure will bring mostly clear skies overnight after cumulus clouds dissipate by early evening. Cooler temps will persist near Lake Michigan.
1056 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 A series of low pressure systems will move northeastward along a stalled front in the forecast area through Friday.
717 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 High pressure will continue to provide fair weather into tonight and Friday, with lows tonight in the mid to upper 40s and highs on Friday near 70 degrees.
Weak wind shift line with pre-frontal surface trof moving in from the northwest is also losing its punch. However, today will still see the ridge extending into the area.
/issued 356 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/ (Today and Tonight) An upper level ridge is still in place across the Desert Southwest, and extends to the east into the Southern Plains this morning.
The possibility is good for late afternoon redevelopment as the cold front pushes farther south toward central Kansas. A cold front will drop south into western Kansas early today and based on the NAM and RAP it appears this boundary will cross the Hays and Garden City areas through 14z and then move through the Dodge City area between 15z and 18z Sunday.
GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: The upper level trough moves off to the east today to be replaced by a ridge. The ridge flattens out for Monday while the cool air boundary moves back north into Canada.
some late night storms are possible near the KS border from whatever is left over from activity today on the high Plains. /Issued 244 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/ The worst heat and humidity will continue for one more day, with gradual improvement expected after today, as the much anticipated westward shift of the upper level ridge commences. Much like yesterday, isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop across parts of southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas today, as an upper level disturbance pushes from northeast to southwest through Arkansas and into the ArkLaTex region on the periphery of the ridge.
/issued 308 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/ Upper level ridge will continue to exert its influence on the region although slightly less so today. This upper ridge will advance westward today allowing thickness values to drop ever so slightly. Furthermore, the added moisture may keep temperatures a degree or two cooler. A short wave rotating around the northeast side of the ridge tonight will make its way into West Texas early Monday morning. The center of the upper ridge that has been locked overhead for the past week is moving westward which will allow temperatures to moderate and thunderstorm chances to return to the region starting Monday. will show the subtropical ridge split with centers toward the southeast part of the country and over the the southwest.
Highs should still climb into the lower to mid 90s in most locations.
Moisture is limited with this trough so do not expect any impact other than warming temperatures as the flow aloft switches to the southwest. Temperatures expected to be around 5 degrees warmer today with light winds. Temps in the lower elevations will be near normal today and then rise 5 to 10 degrees tomorrow.
1118 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Hot high pressure remain over the region through the week with above normal temperatures. Mainly diurnal scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected trough mid-week. Temperatures have risen into the lower 90s at most locations with some cumulus beginning to form. The mid/upper level heights fall slightly for Monday as a trough crosses the Great Lakes region. The GFS indicate even warmer temperatures aloft with H500 mb temperatures minus 3C to minus 4C. High temperatures are forecast to be a couple of degrees cooler for Monday.
Areas of AC/cirrus will continue to develop this morning over the region as a weak upper level trough drifts SW into Srn AR/N LA today. with sct convection expected to develop farther N across Scntrl AR/Ncntrl LA by 18Z near the upper trough. although additional convection may redevelop late over portions of Wrn LA/adjacent E TX near the trough itself as it continues to slowly drift WSW.
(Issued 231 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016) Temps at 230 am across the cwa were in the low/mid 70s with low 70 dewpoints. The early mrng wx map shows a weak upper low centered over west central MS while a large upper high extends across much of the swrn US.
A cold front was over the far eastern zones and will move out of the area this morning. Also the water vapor loop indicated a weak upper trough over southern ALTA moving southeast. Upper level trough over the northern BC coast will move across central Canada Mon night and will send a cold front into the northern Red River Valley Tue night. before a SW ridge sets up on Sunday and provides a break to the active pattern.
For the TAFs, only put in VCTS for KCHA where confidence is the highest.
707 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Aviation An area of low pressure will track through the Great Lakes region today and tonight resulting in showers and thunderstorms at times.
Flat upper ridging will persist through tonight with a mostly dry and relatively light westerly flow aloft. Low level moisture is also fairly limited, thus may only see a few stray cumulus clouds over the mountain ridges this afternoon. With abundant sunshine and warmer air aloft, high temps this afternoon will run 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. The interior Pacific Northwest will reside at the northern periphery of a large dome of high pressure centered across the Desert Southwest/Great Basin.
923 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 High pressure will build into the region today and will move east by Monday morning. A warm front will lift toward the region later Monday and will be followed by a cold front Monday night.
Will monitor the potential influence due to an approaching inverted trough from the southeast for late tonight into Monday.
1139 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016 A few showers are beginning to pop up across Southern Middle Tennessee this morning as many locations are running 1-3 degrees warmer than this time yesterday thanks to the lack of cloud cover.
Still looks like we see Heat Index values in the 100-105 range outside of the higher terrain. 17 An upper level ridge will continue across the southern Appalachians Monday night and this should keep showers and thunderstorms mainly diurnal. However the NAM continues pops after midnight with greater moisture under the ridge.
1137 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 High pressure will build into the region today and will move east by Monday morning. A warm front will lift toward the region later Monday and will be followed by a cold front Monday night.
640 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Regional obs this morning showing no lack of llvl moisture with sfc dew points in the low/mid 70s spread across the CWA just ahead of the leading edge of a cold front currently extending from about swrn MN to wrn KS. Low level moisture return begins in earnest Monday night advecting up along the high plains with TSRA development mainly over the wrn SD within waa regime with upper level support implied via Qvect convg.
Thunderstorm coverage this afternoon should be a little further west than yesterday as the upper ridge loses its hold just a little bit.
This in part due to the upper low moving westward across the south-central peninsula this morning. especially with the cooler/drier air above the surface, and perhaps some small hail. Deep layer moisture will begin to return areawide later tonight as the upper low continues its westward track away from the area. The drier/cooler air aloft may provide for a few gusty convective cells this afternoon. Satellite imagery shows upper low moving across the southern peninsula with much drier air in place.
939 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through much of the week while a weak trough persists inland. Influences from the upper ridge will hold firm today as a TUTT low moves across Florida. Dewpoints will tend to mix out a bit during peak heating, except along the lower South Carolina coast where dewpoints will pool back into the upper 70s/near 80 as the resultant sea breeze moves inland. Tonight: Any lingering convection should diminish early with mostly dry conditions overnight as upper level low pressure to the south moves west into the Gulf of Mexico. Lows will mostly range from the mid 70s inland to near 80 at the coast, although some of the normally cooler inland spots could reach the lower 70s.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 97 75 94 74 / 40 20 40 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 96 74 93 72 / 30 20 40 40 Oak Ridge, TN 96 73 94 73 / 30 20 40 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 95 69 92 70 / 30 20 40 40.
935 AM MDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Upper level ridge shifting across the Northern Rockies and MT will maintain mainly clear skies across the region today with a weak surface pressure gradient providing light winds. High pressure brings mostly clear skies and light winds across central and southwest MT today and through tonight.
The upper low is currently extends offshore of Titusville southwestward into Lake Okeechobee. This low will work westward through the day with much drier air on the western side of the low. The upper low will move westward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico just offshore of Tampa by early evening. With this scenario, convection will be quite limited during most of the day, with drier air and with our region on the subsident side of the upper low.
Weak ridging in place today will keep skies mostly clear and thunderstorms out of the forecast. Warmer and drier conditions anticipated for Monday with a chance for afternoon thunderstorms. Weak upper ridging will be over the area tonight with a dry airmass so had no need for PoPs. The highest CAPES shift E late Mon.
This will force the low level clouds/flurries over the west central into the south central farther south today, and will slowly diminish the winds as the pressure gradient decreases.
258 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2017 The cold front has clear the forecast area.
Bands of snow showers are organizing along and ahead of the cold front as it settles southward through Lower Michigan during mid afternoon. The mid afternoon radar mosaic shows respectable snow showers and band segments within and ahead of the front and along a prefrontal trough combination over Lower Michigan. The front is no doubt getting a boost from Lake Michigan while the prefrontal trough activity is within the relatively unstable theta-e ridge/moisture axis ahead of the cold front. Model soundings within this leading theta-e ridge indicate equilibrium level extending upward to about 750 mb or near 8000 ft as a proxy for convective depth.
/issued 154 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2017/ Early afternoon surface observations indicate a cold front has progressed through most of the area and is now positioned across southeast Oklahoma into north Texas. Northeast winds of 15 to 20 mph have been observed across central and northern Oklahoma in the wake of the front, as well as much cooler temperatures than we have seen in previous days. Short term model guidance shifts this low east and indicates weak moist easterly flow north of this low across southeast portions of the area later tonight.
1243 AM EST Thu Feb 2 2017 High pressure will gradually build into the region through the end of the week.
This afternoon, a weak cold front and mid level impulse are dropping through srn WI and into nrn IL. The only other forecast concern will be with temperature trends following the passage of the weak secondary cold front. As the cooler air filters in overnight, temps should drop to arnd 10-12 F for locations north of the I-88 corridor and 15-18 F for the remainder of the area. 352 PM CST High pressure over the Dakotas will spread over the Midwest through Friday night. Cooler air associated with the upper level trough will also shift overhead leading to high temps only in the 20s.
In spite of mostly sunny conditions today, temperatures will only warm into the 20s, and with a continued breezy northwest wind, wind chill readings will likely remain in the low to middle teens. KJB 352 PM CST High pressure over the Dakotas will spread over the Midwest through Friday night. Cooler air associated with the upper level trough will also shift overhead leading to high temps only in the 20s.
1052 PM MST Wed Feb 1 2017 Updated forecast to include Yuma county in the Winter Weather Advisory based on reports of already receiving freezing drizzle causing slick conditions and to change the coverage and timing of freezing precipitation across the western portion of the forecast area. Soundings slightly warmer in western portions of Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado, which might see the best potential for freezing precipitation. Models were advertising patchy light freezing drizzle/fog for Thursday night into Friday morning on previous shifts. Our CWA will remain downstream of an upper level ridge through the weekend.
1150 PM EST Wed Feb 1 2017 A cold front will move across the forecast area tonight. High pressure will plunge into the Central Plains late Thursday and then will move across the Upper Ohio Valley this weekend.
A weak cold front will continue its slow push across the Southern Appalachian Region early this morning. With cooler air aloft. cooler.
1033 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2017 Low and mid level clouds sagging southward behind the exiting cold front will continue to exit the area to the southeast. The high clouds expand to the northeast during the afternoon, but the dry mid levels will keep the region dry through the day. Model Trends: Guidance has trended weaker, drier, and further southwest with an minor trough racing through the area Friday morning.
1113 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2017 The cold front remains near the Louisiana border this evening. The cold front has moved to just south of the Louisiana border. early afternoon temperatures have warmed into the lower 50's. while in southern Arkansas temperatures have warmed into the lower 70's. Noticeably cooler temperatures will be noted on Thursday with overnight lows Friday morning running about five degrees below normal across northern Arkansas.
In the wake of the passing cold front, current observations shows overcast skies hanging tough across parts of SW Kansas and SE Colorado. In the wake of the cold front with easterly flow, temperatures will remain below average for early February through Friday.
After a beautiful and warm afternoon, the advertised cold front is still set to arrive this evening across the TN Valley. The cold front will push to our south around daybreak on Thursday. Zonal flow aloft will persist, along with a weak low level ridge. Westerly to southwesterly winds will continue to stream moisture in the low levels, despite the passage of the cold front. Meanwhile, a low pressure system over TX will shift to the east through the day Thursday. Temperatures will be somewhat cooler, with the weak northerly surface flow filtering in a more mild airmass. Temperatures on Thursday will remain in the low to mid 50s.
/issued 252 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2017/ Subtle ridging in the mean mid level flow will lead to tranquil weather conditions for the next 24 hours.
A slightly better chance for some light snow will come on Friday with a trough of low pressure approaching the area.
Highs on Friday are probably going to hold in the low to mid 30s but winds will taper off and become lighter through the day. A broad upper trough was over southern Canada and the northern plains downstream of a blocking upper ridge in the Gulf of Alaska today. Over the course of the next several days, westerly flow south of the blocking ridge will extend east across the CONUS resulting in zonal flow through most of the forecast period. Southerly flow across the central plains on the back side of the Canadian surface over the southeast US will usher in warmer temperatures for the weekend.
A weak cold front is working its way across the Southern Appalachian Region tonight.
Scattered showers are then follows as our next cold front moves across the forecast area. Will transition back into MVFR as the morning progresses with a few PM showers possible as a cold front advances across the forecast area.
Aloft, a deamplifying midlevel trough pushes across the Gulf of Mexico Thursday into Friday could increase the amount of convection and cloud cover around the region.
Still on board with the idea that light snow will continue tonight vs freezing drizzle due to a very cold boundary layer in place. However freezing fog is possible in between periods of snow. Regarding the Freezing Fog Advisory, observations along I-80 show that visibilities are improving up to one half mile or so approaching the Summit, but not confident this trend will continue tonight. Thus, issued a Freezing Fog Advisory for these areas, which includes I-80 from just west of Cheyenne to Buford & Vedauwoo, to the Summit. Models in decent agreement in depicting a lull in the heavier snow overnight into Thursday morning but there will be some areas of fog and maybe even a bit of freezing drizzle though very cold temperatures should hinder the freezing drizzle overnight. especially near and north of the Pine Ridge.
354 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2017 Cold front is working its way into Southeast Texas early this morning with some patchy dense fog developing ahead of the boundary. Expect periods of light rain and/or showers with the front, and falling temperatures behind the boundary with afternoon highs a bunch of degrees cooler than what the area saw yesterday. Have kept rain chances on the low side (20%-30%) as activity moves from northwest to southeast as the day progresses.
A high pressure ridge extending from the Atlantic across the central peninsula will change little. High pressure centered over the Peninsula weakens through the day, but not before providing the area with another afternoon of pleasant and warm conditions. Temperatures will remain about 10F above their early February normals, upper 70s away from the immediate coast, a few degrees cooler near the cooler Atlantic.
/issued 931 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2017/ 9 PM CST surface map showed northerly winds over all the Midsouth, with cooler post frontal temps most notable north of I-40. /issued 239 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2017/ A cold front positioned just to the north of the Interstate 40 (I-40) corridor continues to make very slow progress south. High pressure will finally build over the Mid South on Friday with evening colder temperatures. Dry and cool weather will continue through the first half of the weekend as high pressure gradually moves east.
This period will be marked by cold Canadian high pressure slowly building overhead, with northwesterly flow at 500mb as a large low spins across Hudson Bay/James Bay. The cold air has successfully taken over the region, with the cold front now shifting over the far southern portions of SD. So a brief brush with low pressure on Sat night across the eastern cwa will not have enough time to bring any measurable precip.
Surface wise, an extensive, east-west oriented ridge lies across the north central portion of the Sunshine state and into the Atlantic ocean and well into the northern Gulf of Mexico.
257 AM EST Thu Feb 2 2017 Latest surface analysis across the southeast states shows frontal boundary over Tennessee valley but high pressure trying to hang on over the local area. Frontal boundary pushes south of the area for the end of the short term with cooler but still seasonable mild temps across the area wit low to mid 50s for North GA.
318 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2017 Current cold front has worked its way into central Mississippi leaving the Midsouth mostly cloudy with a zone of showers hugging the 850mb upper front along the TN/MS border. to the low 50s across the far south.
The high does weaken tomorrow, as a cold front pushes into north Florida, and possibly Central Florida.
300 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2017 Surface ridging will continue to build into the forecast area today. Without significant cloud cover will run toward the warmer end of MOS range. Friday opens with a diffuse front waffling from NW-SE over the forecast area, before pressing farther SW Fri evening as cool surface ridging re-exerts more dominance. Some low clouds behind the boundary could expand this high temp range, but low level moistening is still progged to be a bigger factor beginning Fri night as a fetch of modified Gulf moisture arrives isentropically and breeds abundant stratus through early Sat morning.
231 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2017 08Z water vapor imagery shows broad cyclonic over the northeast and Great Lakes with a closed upper low over the Hudson bay. A low amplitude ridge was noted over the intermountain west with another closed upper low off the coast of northern CA. At the surface a cold Canadian high pressure system continues to build south through the plains with the cold front pushing into east TX. Cold air advection through the day should limited afternoon highs to the lower and middle 30s. Have trended lows tonight slightly warmer with upper teens to around 20 degrees thinking increasing cloud cover should re-radiate IR energy back to the surface.