Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A strong cold front is located at 05/11Z from northern Louisiana to central Texas making steady progress to the southeast. The cold front is expected to reach KAEX around 15Z, KLCH/KBPT around 18Z and KLFT/KARA between 20Z and 21Z. A cold front, however, is heading our way from the north.
Today and Tonight: As of early this morning, the much anticipated cold front is knocking on our door. An area of light showers was lifting northeast across the forecast area ahead of this cold front. Light rain will continue to be possible for a few hours after the frontal passage, however rain chances will diminish by this evening as drier air starts to work its way into the lower levels. A slight chance for light rain will return to mainly southern parts of the area by daybreak, as frontogenetic forcing associated with the elevated cold front causes moist, isentropic lift over the cooler surface airmass.
1045 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2017 Another warm and rather muggy day underway as the southeast flow continues around high pressure out in the western Atlantic Ocean. A few light showers/sprinkles could move into the southern interior and southwest counties this afternoon, otherwise partly to mostly sunny skies will continue with temperatures climbing into the lower to middle 80s. Winds and seas begin to increase Wednesday night through the end of the week, as a cold front moves slowly southward across the waters, with periods of cautionary to advisory conditions and showers likely.
Dry and mild weather will continue into the weekend as strong high pressure remains along the West Coast.
Clearing skies and light winds will allow temperatures to fall into the low to mid 30s tonight with areas of frost possible.
Under a clear sky low temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s.
The timing of the warmer air return will affect afternoon highs with lower 70s still expected west of the river with 60s elsewhere.
A fast moving cold front will move southward through the region Wednesday night, producing some rain and snow showers.
241 AM EDT Wed Oct 25 2017 Cooler conditions will prevail across central Pennsylvania for the remainder of this week.
326 AM EDT Wed Oct 25 2017 Cooler temperatures expected today and Thursday. Another cold front will approach the area over the weekend. The reinforcing cold front has shifted east through the area with increasing cold air advection in its wake. Broad upper trough axis over the eastern CONUS will shift east and off the coast tonight. High pressure will ridge into the forecast area at the surface.
There still may be some patchy frost in sheltered areas this morning where temperatures fall into the lower to mid 30s with good radiational cooling. Skies will be clear over the area tonight as a upper ridge passes over the area. Britt Warm day is expected on Thursday ahead of the strong cold front which will bring the bi-state region well below normal temperatures through the weekend. NWP guidance with respect to timing of the aforementioned cold front is well clustered. Given this expected timing, am still expecting highs to reach the low to mid 70s across much of the area.
153 AM EDT Wed Oct 25 2017 As deep low pressure over the Great Lakes drifts northeast into southern Canada tonight, the attending cold front will continue to sweep through the North Country tonight with rain ending from west to east.
High pressure was located over the eastern Pacific with a broad ridge of high pressure extending north into northern British Columbia and northern Alberta. Upstream of this feature, a trough of low pressure was noted over eastern portions of the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream of the high and ridge, low pressure was noted over eastern Ontario with a trough of low pressure extending south to the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface: Low pressure was located over eastern Ontario with high pressure located over the central and northern Rockies. Northerly winds will develop behind the pre frontal trough with the main cold front remaining north of the forecast area overnight. With winds increasing behind the prefrontal trough, lows will be mild with readings in the 40s tonight Modified arctic air will continue to spill south across the high plains on Thursday.
Below normal temps again for today and tonight as we remain well entrenched in the longwave trough. Additionally, northwest flow will help promote further lift across the high terrain and squeeze out a few light showers. Before exiting, there could be a flurry or two across areas that dip below freezing. With clearing clouds late tonight expect another cold one across the forecast area with lows ranging from freezing to the mid to upper 30s.
After that, ridging aloft will result in dry conditions and slightly warmer temperatures for tomorrow.
Temps are still in the lower to mid 40s north, but are only in the upper 30s south where clear skies reside. Thermal troughing will keep temps on the cool side once again, especially along the plateau where the thermal trough axis will be in closer proximity. The plateau area will struggle to reach into the lower 50s this afternoon. Mostly clear skies again on Thursday night but temps will be warmer as some atmospheric mixing is expected.
230 AM MDT Wed Oct 25 2017 Active weather in the short term as a strong cold front moves through the area over the next 24 to 36 hours. Winds are picking up across our wind prone area with Arlington reporting wind gusts in the low 30mph range, Bordeaux around 30 mph and the south Laramie Range in the mid 30s this morning. Believe this will be the time for the strongest winds across our wind prone areas, so will keep the High Wind Warnings going. The front looks to sag southwestward across the area after 06Z with 700mb temperatures falling well below freezing by 09Z.
120 AM EDT Wed Oct 25 2017 A strong upper level trough will cross the area Wednesday providing cool temperatures and some mountain showers.
1125 PM MDT Tue Oct 24 2017 Warmer weather is expected over the next 24 hours ahead of the next system arriving on Thursday. Lee troffing tonight will keep min temps warmer. especially across the lower eastern slopes of the southeast mountains and I-25 corridor. Wednesday will see increasing winds and much warmer temperatures with highs expected to top out well above normal. expect high temperatures to top out in the lower 80s across portions of the plains.
The base of the upper-level trough will finish swinging through the area later today allowing for our next pattern change to take place. On Thursday, with the ridge and southerly flow across the region, warmer temps return! Looking at daytime highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s and overnight lows around 50. The ridge is quickly pushed east by a large trough swinging across the Midwest, however you are still able to end the work week with daytime temps in the 70s too.
318 AM EDT Wed Oct 25 2017 Upper level trough with isolated to scattered showers today. Cooler and drier weather midweek.
Decoupling should still occur tonight, and the continued dry air environment should still create some valley temps that are 5-8 degrees cooler than surrounding terrain. Continued increases in surface winds are expected Thursday as progressive zonal winds aloft bring in another upstream upper trough from the NW. Dewpoints only recovering into the low to mid 40s by this time means that elevated fire weather conditions will develop.
High pressure dominates the western states today, but a weak upper trough will push in from British Columbia tonight/tomorrow. The trough should bring some elevated winds to the region tomorrow, but should remain well below advisory levels.
431 AM EDT Wed Oct 25 2017 A chance for showers will continue today, as a trough of low pressure remains centered over the Great Lakes. A cold night is in store for the region with frost and freezing temperatures by Thursday morning. High pressure will move into the area late in the week, with a slight increase in temperatures.
1226 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2017 Gusty conditions from this afternoon will gradually diminish later this afternoon and evening as a deep area of low pressure currently situated over far eastern Upper Michigan will weaken a bit and advance northeastward tonight. Aloft, a very brief high pressure ridge will build this evening before a rapidly moving clipper system is progged to dive southeastward from Saskatchewan/Manitoba, Canada, which will bring a band of 1000-850 mb layer FGEN with it, mainly between 03z tonight to 15z Wednesday. Once the FGEN band moves out by Wednesday morning, the rest of the day should be dry as mid-level ridging builds into the region. Temperatures will be near seasonal averages, with highs in the middle 40s over the Arrowhead region to the lower 50s over the Brainerd Lakes.
1231 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2017 A cold front was located along the Red River Valley, with west to northwest winds of 5 to 15 mph expected to persist across western and central ND for the overnight hours. Winds have increased a bit over portions of central North Dakota in the wake of a passing trough. Highs are expected to range from the lower 50s northeast to the lower 70s southwest. Strong winds are expected with the initial cold front as it moves across the forecast area Wednesday night.
Today the upper level trough that brought the chilly day to the area yesterday will push eastward and in its wake we will transition to a downsloping westerly flow today. This will also force a cold front through the area Thursday afternoon. Thursday night, strong CAA behind the cold front will usher in the cool temperatures.
However, the 850mb temperatures only lower to around +4C across the east-northeast by 18z and actually begin to warm up towards the end of the afternoon as weak surface ridging begins to build into the state.
The lee troughing was a result of the height falls from the developing upper level trough developing out of Canada. A powerful cold front is still on track for the daytime on Thursday with an early northerly wind shift.
/issued 255 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017/ Cooler temperatures today due to northwest flow aloft and weak northerly winds at the surface keeping most of us in the 60s across our CWA.
The water vapor shows great timing to sample with the axis of the trough right overhead from TXK to SHV to MLU.
A light southerly wind will keep temperatures about 10 or 15 degrees warmer tonight.
305 AM EDT Wed Oct 25 2017 Temperatures will be cooler today through Thursday.
254 AM EDT Wed Oct 25 2017 Temperatures will be cooler today through Thursday.
1210 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2017 A pronounced long wave trough over the Great Lakes is driving the weather conditions over our area with cooler air and a tight pressure gradient creating gusts in the mid to upper 30s. This trough will slowly progress to the east allowing ridging and some warmer air to advect over our region Wed and Thur allowing our temperatures to recover back into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Cyclogenesis over the northern plains will quickly occur Thursday morning developing a strong cold front that will push into our region late Thursday afternoon.
Winds across the Keys are our of the north along the Lower Keys and westward near 15 knots over the water, and near 10 knots at the island terminals, while the Middle and Upper Keys remain out of the south near 10 knots. As mentioned above, satellite evidence is showing the last push for this trough in the form of a short wave digging around the upper low over the Great Lakes. Winds will increase quickly this morning, and dry air will move across the area late this morning as high pressure builds in behind the front.
High pressure aloft will continue to weaken and shift westward as a low pressure trough deepens over the central United States.
644 AM EDT Wed Oct 25 2017 Temperatures will be cooler today through Thursday.
329 AM PDT Wed Oct 25 2017 A weak upper level area of low pressure and dry cool front moves through the region late tonight. High pressure then rebuilds into the weekend. Ridging persists through much of today but begins to weaken late as an upper level trough approaches from the northwest. The upper level trough and surface cool front pass through the region tonight. The biggest impact will be a shift to the north-northeast of the low/mid level winds and a slight decrease in temperatures Thursday. The core of the cooler air slides well to the east of the forecast area.
SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): 500mb ridge across southwest Texas today will continue to provide subsidence across the CWA this afternoon.
The axis of a very deep trough will bottom out across our area this morning and early afternoon. At the surface, high pressure centered over Texas will slowly slide eastward.
The low level thermal trough will gradually shift eastward, so temperatures tonight should not be quite as cold, and frost is not expected to be as much of a concern.
322 AM EDT Wed Oct 25 2017 A strong upper level trough will cross the area today providing cool temperatures and some mountain showers.
High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, ranging from around 50 degrees near the Indiana border. With clear skies and light winds expected tonight, excellent radiational cooling conditions will allow low temperatures to drop into the lower to middle 30s. Further west, light return flow late tonight will keep readings slightly warmer overnight in the Illinois River Valley. Southerly winds will develop ahead of the next approaching cold front on Thursday, allowing temperatures to climb well into the 60s.
A ridge of high pressure will keep above normal temperatures over the region through tonight. A weak cold front will move through the state Thursday bringing temperatures down a few degrees but the area will remain dry.
The downslope component of this flow coupled with much warmer air aloft with result in warmer, above average temperatures across the forecast area today.
Another dry and cool day is then in store for the forecast areas as high pressure drifts overhead. Gulf moisture return will begin slowly tonight that should help to moderate the low temperatures across the area.
336 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2017 A weak low pressure system diving southeastward across Minnesota this morning will bring warm temperatures into the CWA. Several locations this morning are reporting temps in the upper 40s to the lower 50s.
Wednesday another vort max dropping south along the back side of the upper level trough will provide another diurnally enhanced period of showery activity although coverage and intensity won't quite be as much as today. Under mostly cloudy skies and the core of the colder air of the upper trough, highs should be limited to the low to mid 50s.
and Thursday Quieter but much cooler weather expected through mid week. Clouds have briefly departed this morning and the low pressure system which produced the rain and winds yesterday continues to shift east. Lows near freezing tonight with light winds may provide the last headline of the season tonight. Mid to High clouds with a warm front approaching from the west may attempt to put a damper on the falling temperatures, but may not be a big issue since temperatures will starting out rather cold this evening. Precipitation type expected to be rain Thursday in the warm sector of the low pressure system.
150 AM EDT Wed Oct 25 2017 Broad low pressure will maintain shower chances and cool temperatures through mid week. Mostly clear skies expected overnight in an area of dry advection wedged between the main trough axis and the departing frontal boundary to the east. As the upper low moves east of the region Wednesday night, the chance for showers will drop off. Have continued with the chance for snow in the highest elevations, although temperatures right around the freezing mark should not allow for any snow to stick.
255 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2017 Main concern for this forecast will be the below freezing temps, initially expected in central KS for Thu night, and areawide by Fri night/Sat morning. Surface flow will have a little more of a westerly component for today, which will lead to good downslope flow and warmer temps for this afternoon. C dropping south by Fri and Fri night, with freezing temps expected to settle over central KS by Thu night and areawide by Fri night/early Sat morning. Still a little bit of uncertainty on how cold, it will actually get, as the ECMWF shows 850H temps a little warmer, with the best radiational cooling, and ridge axis staying a little further to the west (over NW KS). Another dry cold front looks to drop south, in the northerly flow for Mon.
Thursday morning a cold front is expected to push through the Panhandles. This front will cause out winds to shift out of the north and keep our temperatures cooler for the majority of the area.
230 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2017 Upper level low to our north is starting to open up and is forecast to gradually move northeast.
An upper level long wave ridge over the intermountain states and west coast will weaken today as a short wave rides over the top of it. This system will push a weak cold front into the Medford CWA today, but this front will fall apart as it does so. No precipitation is expected, but it will bring in some clouds and turn the low level flow onshore for a while. The short wave will move out Wednesday night and the upper level ridge will rebuild Thursday, a bit west of the current position. Another thermal trough will form under the ridge along or just off the coast, also a bit farther west than the current one.
351 AM PDT Wed Oct 25 2017 High pressure will continue to provide Central California with dry weather and above normal temperatures through the upcoming weekend. Yesterday was dry and unseasonably warm across central CA, as highs pushed several degrees above climo under the influence of strong high pressure aloft and a notable offshore flow pattern at the surface. The responsible upper level ridge over the western US is beginning to flatten as energy pushes into the Pacific Northwest this morning, while the offshore surface pressure gradient is beginning to relax.
However, temps have been warmer than guidance lately with sun.
Very warm/hot and dry conditions prevail over the region as high pressure remains over the West Coast.
mainly clear skies over the area with temps currently ranging from the mid 30s west up to the lower and mid 40s across central and eastern locales. H5 ridge will crest over the Plains with lee-side troughing setting up over the Front Range.
The base of an upper level trough is currently making its way through AR/MS and will pass east through the area overnight. As the trough swings east and daytime heating is lost, clouds will also diminish with clear skies returning, most likely, by midnight. Dry weather should continue for the Wed-Thu timeframe, as cool high pressure builds from northern Rockies to the NW Gulf region, producing a more westerly wind. Light winds and clear skies would support patchy late night frosting (again within those normally cooler spots). The first half of the extended range will be dominated by another large, deep trough swinging across the eastern CONUS.
High pressure overhead will keep mostly clear skies and light winds.
253 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2017 The upper trof currently over the Mid-South will move east today. The combination of the southerly winds, upper ridging, and strong warm air advection will allow temperatures to quickly rise on Thursday. Mild conditions will occur Thursday Night ahead of an approaching cold front. Lows will be in the lower to mid 50s.
High pressure in place will keep rather quiet and dry conditions through the short term. Clear skies will continue to allow for afternoon temperatures to rise into the lower 80s, while dry conditions will allow for afternoon relative humidity percentages to drop into the mid-teens to lower 20s.
A storm system will graze northeast Utah and southwest Wyoming tomorrow, bringing cooler air to the region.
327 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2017 Cold front is well south and east of the area with high pressure centered over south Texas. At upper levels, base of the deep eastern US trough is currently moving through the area.
453 AM MDT Wed Oct 25 2017 High pressure will remain over the Northern Rockies through midday today.
530 AM EDT Wed Oct 25 2017 Cool temperatures and scattered shower chances will continue today under a broad upper low.
456 AM MDT Wed Oct 25 2017 Upper air analysis shows deep trough continuing across the eastern CONUS. with strong ridging over the western half of the country. Warm air advection has begun at the low levels as a thermal ridge centered over the northern Rockies continues its eastward slide. Models continue to show a strong cold front pushing through the region tonight. Model runs from 00z have generally weakened winds slightly, but wondering how the 12z models will respond with the upcoming round of upper air launches and if the areal coverage of the High Wind headlines will need to be adjusted. Upper ridging will rebuild over the region bringing quieter weather to the CWA.
This will lead to warmer temperatures overall today, with the most warming across the Big Country. Wednesday night, expect the warmer conditions to continue as winds become more southerly, and hover in the 5 to 10 mph range. (Thursday through Wednesday) An area of low pressure over the upper mid-west will continue to strengthen and move east into the Great Lakes by Thursday evening. The trailing cold front will push into the Texas panhandle by the mid afternoon.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande valley the rest of tonight into Wednesday as 500mb ridge across the western United States and 500mb trough across the eastern U. Mostly clear skies and generally light surface winds below 10 knots can be expected for all terminals on Wednesday with high pressure in place. /issued 250 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): The short term period will remain pretty quiet and benign over the RGV as dry and mild surface ridging dominates the region. The low level flow pattern will then begin to shift around to a light southerly late Wed which will allow for the overnight lows to warm up a bit in addition to some rebounding dewpoints as the low level moisture return kicks in.
316 AM MDT Wed Oct 25 2017 One more dry and warm day expected across the region before the upper level ridge breaks down. Models in good agreement with dragging a few showers along the leading edge of the associated cold front that will shift winds to the northwest and north by midday Thursday.
1032 PM PDT Tue Oct 24 2017 Expect mild, dry conditions through the week, as high pressure builds into the Pacific Northwest. The ridge will be briefly interrupted by a fast moving weather system Wednesday. Minor updates to the forecast were mainly minor adjustments to the low temperature forecast for tonight, Otherwise forecast remains in place noting a brief interruption of the upper ridge of high pressure over the area by a cold front passing through tomorrow afternoon and evening. /Pelatti 06Z TAFS: Cold front tomorrow afternoon briefly interrupts the upper level ridge of high pressure over the aviation area.
310 AM MST Wed Oct 25 2017 High pressure will slowly weaken through the remainder of the week resulting in a gradual cooling trend, though temperatures will continue to remain above normal. Afternoon highs in the lower and middle 90s will be common for lower elevation communities into the weekend. These warm temperature aloft will be good enough to support mid-90s across most of the lower desert locations, with a few upper 90s across SE CA, which could threaten a few records across South-Central AZ today, under mainly clear skies. All of the global models continue to gradually weaken and retrograde the strong ridging over our region through the entire period as a very strong (100+ kt) northerly jet dives southward from northern/central CA into the central CONUS.
High pressure aloft will weaken today as a system over British Columbia moves southeast into Montana and the upper Midwest. Rain showers are expected across the West Central Mountains as the cold front passes to the east, with snow levels generally above 10000ft.