Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Highs today look to settle into the mid 70s to the low 80s, thanks to warming H85 temps aided by southwesterly flow in the lower levels. With that said, winds across the Brush Country will remain out of the west-northwest as a weak prefrontal trough axis develops in response to a weak cold front passing through the northern part of the state. This upper level disturbance will send our next cold front through the region Thursday evening. Ahead of the front, a prefrontal trough will take shape early Thursday morning resulting in a northerly wind through the day. Highs tomorrow will be a bit cooler than what we see today due to northerly winds and increasing cloud cover.
The latest surface analysis places a 996mb low over Green Bay, Wisconsin with a cold front extending south through Chicago and southwest back into Saint Louis and into Fayetteville, Arkansas. This cold front will continue to traverse eastward through the Mid-South this morning. Temperatures will climb into the lower 40s to around 50 degrees, despite weak CAA and some mid and high level cloud cover. Sub-freezing air will build in behind the front overnight. The freezing line is progged to push as far south as Oxford, MS before daybreak on Thursday. This low is anticipated to move through southern Mississippi during the day on Thursday and spread moisture into the Mid-South.
511 AM CST Wed Jan 5 2022 Northwest winds behind a strong cold front, will gust to 35 to 45 mph today. 08z surface map placed 996 mb low pressure over north central WI. A cold front extended south just west of the I-55 corridor. The highest gradient winds are expected near/north of I-74, and this is where a Wind Advisory is in effect until 6 pm. Thursday night still appears to be the coldest of this stretch as the ridge builds into western IL late.
The next upper level wave in the northwest flow aloft is affecting the region today along with a surface warm front, cold front combination with the warm front pushing north followed by a weak cold front. Tonight and Thursday expect snow mainly in the mountains as the northwest flow continues with warmer conditions expected Thursday.
928 AM EST Wed Jan 5 2022 Weak high pressure builds into the region for the next couple of days with rain-free conditions expected. Morning low temps were in the 50's and 60's, which is about 10-15 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Benign weather conditions expected over the eastern gulf waters as high pressure ridges over the area.
411 AM CST Wed Jan 5 2022 The temperature forecast today leans on the RAP model which is cooler and places single digit highs above and below zero as far south as Custer county. A warm front will develop across wrn Nebraska Thursday and the models are suggesting the potential for light snow with the front.
959 AM EST Wed Jan 5 2022 Update Freezing rain has began at GRR about 10 minutes after 9 am. However, it should become so by 11 am, so the freezing rain issue should not last all that long. Even though the early morning commute period looks to be mostly okay, road/travel conditions will deteriorate significantly later this morning as the current above freezing temperatures (mid 30s) drop abruptly into the lower to mid 20s and snow quickly coats the ground.
The area will experience a bit of a break later today as a weak ridge of high pressure sets up over northern California and southern Oregon. That being said, the area of high pressure is not dominant enough to preclude all precipitation, and an upper level trough will pass through over top of the ridge.
447 AM EST Wed Jan 5 2022 High pressure previously centered over the Mid-Atlantic has quickly moved off the into the western North Atlantic overnight. Winds are currently ranging from 4 to 14 knots across the reef, with the higher values being in the eastern waters. A few showers have moved over the Middle and Upper Keys this morning, but the Lower Keys have remained dry. Radiational cooling occurred on some inland and protected areas on the larger islands in the Lower Keys overnight, with our backyard bottoming out at in the mid 60s.
652 AM CST Wed Jan 5 2022 (Today and tonight) The cold front that moved through the area overnight will take the edge off of the temperatures today with high temperatures expected to be 15 to 20 degrees cooler than yesterday. But another shot of colder temperatures is on the way with the next cold front that will move through tonight as a mid- level through moves through the central and northern Plains. Although the primary trough axis will remain northeast of the Forecast area, some of the models show enough vorticity brushing across north central Oklahoma that we may see a little bit of light snow. Winds will be gusty behind the cold front, so wind chill values will drop to advisory criteria in the north and west toward sunrise as cold air continues to filter in.
Attention then turns to the next system, a warm front, on Thursday, which may clip the southwest zones with up to 2 inches of new snow.
A warm front lifted northward overnight resulting in snow changing to rain below around 4000-4500 feet, including the Treasure and Western Magic Valley. The front will push back to the south as a weak cold front, which will move through central and northern portions of the area late this afternoon and evening. However, little accumulation is expected as temperatures remain above freezing. The front will stall from near Burns to Twin Falls this evening, then lift back to the north as a warm front late tonight through Thursday as the snow transitions back to rain below around 6000 feet by Thursday morning. Temperatures will trend warmer, from near normal today to around 5 degrees above normal on Thursday.
547 AM EST Wed Jan 5 2022 Rain and snow chance returns north of Pittsburgh today with a cold front. Widespread snow is expected Thursday night with crossing low pressure.
As we move into Thursday, a low pressure system will be working its way across the Southern Plains and into the Southeast CONUS with a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico.
934 AM PST Wed Jan 5 2022 High pressure aloft and weak offshore flow will bring warmer conditions to SoCal through Thursday.
1139 AM CST Wed Jan 5 2022 Shallow cold air will continue to advect southward across the area today as a strong upper jet from the northern Rockies across the Midwest continues to amplify an upper trof across the Great Lakes. A secondary jet maxima upstream will help re-amplify the trof over the Upper Midwest late tonight/Thursday. Sub-zero wind chills will also affect the area late tonight into Thursday morning with the lowest readings around 15 below affecting central Kansas as well.
1115 AM CST Wed Jan 5 2022 (Today and tonight) The cold front that moved through the area overnight will take the edge off of the temperatures today with high temperatures expected to be 15 to 20 degrees cooler than yesterday. But another shot of colder temperatures is on the way with the next cold front that will move through tonight as a mid- level through moves through the central and northern Plains. Although the primary trough axis will remain northeast of the Forecast area, some of the models show enough vorticity brushing across north central Oklahoma that we may see a little bit of light snow. Winds will be gusty behind the cold front, so wind chill values will drop to advisory criteria in the north and west toward sunrise as cold air continues to filter in.
Additionally, with near zonal flow aloft at the base of a long range upper-trough will provide enough instability to support scattered showers across portions of northeast Louisiana and south-central Arkansas overnight. Cold high pressure to build across the region shortly after daybreak on Thursday bringing much drier air to the region allowing for improving conditions areawide.
This will lead to frigid actual low temperatures tonight ranging from the lower 30s below zero across the northwest to around 20 below over the James River Valley. As high pressure continues to slide southeast, the lowest wind chills will also move east Thursday night.
An area of high pressure will be settling in over the region, but there will likely still be enough wind Thursday night that another wind chill advisory will be needed.
A cold front moved through all of North and Western Central Texas earlier today and should clear all of Central Texas through the afternoon. The cool, shallow airmass will modify some this afternoon, but we still expect afternoon highs to be about 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday. We expect this airmass/cold front to move into our area in the pre dawn hours, then move through all of North and Central Texas by the early afternoon. The immediate post frontal temperature drop won't be as immediate as last week, but noticeably cooler air and blustery north winds will be felt. Most of Western North/Central Texas and those along the Red River will fall below freezing tonight/tomorrow morning. Our current forecast has tomorrow's highs generally about 10 degrees (+/- a few) warmer than the morning lows.
CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 32 41 18 35 22 / 10 80 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 29 40 15 31 16 / 0 80 30 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 26 39 13 31 16 / 0 80 20 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 27 41 13 26 12 / 0 80 80 0 0 TN.
On the surface, high pressure north of Bermuda ridges southwest over northern Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico.
We tend to favor the lower res deterministic models and the 12z HRRR which lines up with them, for our QPF and snow forecast.
230 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022 Aviation Freezing rain has began at GRR about 10 minutes after 9 am. However, it should become so by 11 am, so the freezing rain issue should not last all that long. Even though the early morning commute period looks to be mostly okay, road/travel conditions will deteriorate significantly later this morning as the current above freezing temperatures (mid 30s) drop abruptly into the lower to mid 20s and snow quickly coats the ground.
1200 PM CST Wed Jan 5 2022 (Today and tonight) Temperatures will be cooler today, following a morning cold frontal passage. The much advertised stronger cold front will arrive in the Big Country late tonight. An upper trough is currently deepening into the upper Midwest from the northern Plains. Associated cold front has pushed south into the Texas Panhandle and northern Oklahoma. In the wake of this frontal passage, temperatures will be cooler today, most notably in the Big Country and to a lesser extent in the southern part of our area. The second and stronger cold front will advance south into the Big Country late tonight. The strong cold front should reach the I-20 corridor by or shortly after 6 AM Thursday. Behind this front, temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 20s for lows.
An area of low pressure over the Great Lakes Region will continue producing gusty northwesterly winds over the northeast CWA in the early evening hours. An Arctic high pressure will be located over North Dakota on Thursday, with 925 mb temps around -25C.
A cold front will move through the area between 12Z and 16Z, resulting in gusty north to northeast winds of 12 to 20 knots. (Today through Thursday afternoon) Current observations show a cold front has moved into the Texas Panhandle. Cold air behind this front will be lacking, but an amplifying ridge over the western U.
At the surface we remain at the southwestern end of a poorly defined area of high pressure. Meanwhile a weak trough exists in the 850-700 mb layer which is keeping a weak cyclonic flow across the area. Along this trough, there is enough moisture and convergence that a line of showers developed and remain ongoing this morning. To the east of this trough winds are southerly and to the west, winds are west to northwest. That said, temperatures are only a couple degrees warmer. Meanwhile, behind this trough winds have backed to the west and northwest and are generally light to gentle breezes. A weak anticyclone will traverse through the area Thursday, leading to light and variable winds. A more robust and expansive area of high pressure will descend from the Central Plains and into the southeast U.
1244 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022 Dry cold front crosses this evening.
155 PM CST Wed Jan 5 2022 Today's temperatures have rebounded to slightly warmer than normal levels, in the upper 40s and lower 50s with breezy winds. We think the cold air will win out with mostly low impacts from freezing rain and sleet. Because of the mixed precip type, our southern counties should see the lowest snow totals with around 1 to possibly 2 inches.
116 PM MST Wed Jan 5 2022 Water vapor shows upper trof building into the Great Lakes region, with strong northwest jet extending from the Pac NW through southern portions of the Northern Plains. Warm front attempts to lift into parts of northeast WY and the Black Hills by afternoon, resulting in just a bit of overrunning light snow or flurries.
1119 AM CST Wed Jan 5 2022 (The rest of today ) Cold front and initial surge of colder air has pushed through the region, with a stream of high clouds noted across the forecast area.
236 PM CST Wed Jan 5 2022 The CWA remains under northwesterly flow aloft this afternoon as a longwave upper level trough continues to hover over much of the CONUS. Locally, generally light southerly surface flow will continue across the CWA through the evening hours as a potent cold front pushes southward through the plains states in the wake of the departing upper level system. Winds will become westerly for most locations on the Caprock late tonight as pre-frontal troughing reinforces a ~40kt westerly low level jet with surface westerlies around 15mph overnight. However, considering the strength of the front and the reservoir of cold air in its wake, will continue to side with the majority of guidance and maintain a cooler forecast.
1135 AM EST Wed Jan 5 2022 High pressure will prevail across the area today.
950 AM PST Wed Jan 5 2022 Updated AVIATION Section The forecast remains on track with the precipitation trending lower over the next 24 hours as a warm front pushes to the north east. Temperatures will be on the warmer side today into Thursday with highs in the 50's within the valleys west of the Cascades. The area will experience a bit of a break later today as a weak ridge of high pressure sets up over northern California and southern Oregon. That being said, the area of high pressure is not dominant enough to preclude all precipitation, and an upper level trough will pass through over top of the ridge.
1208 PM CST Wed Jan 5 2022 The temperature forecast today leans on the RAP model which is cooler and places single digit highs above and below zero as far south as Custer county. A warm front will develop across wrn Nebraska Thursday and the models are suggesting the potential for light snow with the front.
1150 AM CST Wed Jan 5 2022 The temperature forecast today leans on the RAP model which is cooler and places single digit highs above and below zero as far south as Custer county. A warm front will develop across wrn Nebraska Thursday and the models are suggesting the potential for light snow with the front.
Meanwhile, aloft a subtle trough that was located in the 850-700 mb layer is gradually lifting north and northeast out of our area. This is because the broad ridge out over the Atlantic is building back westward across the Gulf of Mexico. As this trough lifts out of the area and the ridge builds in, the pressure gradient across our area will essentially collapse.
Wind speeds should pick up behind the cold front, gusting as high as 20 kts as the barbs turn northeasterly.
(This evening through Thursday) The base of a longwave mid-level trough will continue to traverse the southern Plains tonight. An attendant cold front will push through later this evening, bringing in cold air across the area.
Tight pressure gradient around this low with a westerly 925 wind max influencing the area into this evening. A brief period of mid level ridging is noted this evening but by and large, the flow will be cyclonic into Thursday with the colder airmass/low level thermal trough.
Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as temperatures have warmed into the lower 60s. By the overnight hours, ceilings will begin to lower to MVFR as a cold front approaches the region.
An upper- level trough is swinging overhead, with it progged to push east of here by this evening. The aforementioned Canadian high pressure will spread east going into Thursday night, positioning itself over western parts of the area.
922 AM PST Wed Jan 5 2022 The forecast remains on track with the precipitation trending lower over the next 24 hours as a warm front pushes to the north east. Temperatures will be on the warmer side today into Thursday with highs in the 50's within the valleys west of the Cascades. The area will experience a bit of a break later today as a weak ridge of high pressure sets up over northern California and southern Oregon. That being said, the area of high pressure is not dominant enough to preclude all precipitation, and an upper level trough will pass through over top of the ridge.
A weak frontal boundary dropping south from North Texas looks to overtake a dryline this evening, washing out as it approaches the Highway 59 corridor. A second, stronger cold front is expected to reach the terminals after 18Z Thursday.
(The rest of today ) Cold front and initial surge of colder air has pushed through the region, with a stream of high clouds noted across the forecast area.
Surface cold front moving into the Denver area now with stronger northeast winds developing behind the front. The snow is moving in rapidly behind the cold front with developing upslope flow. Still strong winds in the northwest flow so still expect strong winds up to 60 mph over higher mountains and ridges.
839 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022 High pressure will continue across the area through Thursday.
A cold front is currently making its way toward Mississippi with colder air following. At the surface a low pressure is expected to form over southern Mississippi and push northeast along a front through Alabama/Georgia.
A cold front is currently pushing southeast through KY. Aloft, a potent impulse currently sliding down the western side of a large scale central/eastern CONUS trough will be the instigator for our system. As it's transitioning through the base of the trough, models depict coupled upper level jet streaks, with the left exit and right entrance regions coinciding over our area during the afternoon and providing strong support for precip. At the surface, low pressure should deepen as it tracks along the front through the Deep South and the Carolinas-- a favorable track for snow here. Temperatures may briefly climb above freezing on Thursday before snow starts, but will quickly fall back and not be a hindrance for accumulation.
A weak trough is situated along the ECFL coast, hence the increased cloudiness along the eastern peninsula, will get a push seaward later this evening and overnight with surface winds becoming NWRLY. Skies will become mostly sunny by the late morning as an area of weak high pressure builds over the eastern Gulf of Mexico - stretching into Florida. Dry conditions are expected through the day with high pressure only lasting for a short time ahead of our next approaching frontal system. Few evening sprinkles/light showers along the Space/Treasure coasts in the evening as a weak trough slowly pushes seaward. Isolated-Scattered showers will also remain possible in association with the aforementioned trough.
Today's temperatures have rebounded to slightly warmer than normal levels, in the upper 40s and lower 50s with breezy winds. We think the cold air will win out with mostly low impacts from freezing rain and sleet. Because of the mixed precip type, our southern counties should see the lowest snow totals with around 1 to possibly 2 inches.
WV imagery this afternoon was showing a large upper trough across the eastern CONUS with an upstream ridge just off the west coast.
512 PM CST Wed Jan 5 2022 (This evening through Thursday) The base of a longwave mid-level trough will continue to traverse the southern Plains tonight. An attendant cold front will push through later this evening, bringing in cold air across the area.
528 PM CST Wed Jan 5 2022 00Z 06JAN2022 TAFs VFR conditions to come to a temporary end tonight thru tomorrow morning as a weak cold front makes its way across the area.
309 PM CST Wed Jan 5 2022 Last night's cold front has exited the area, leaving us with cold air and gusty conditions. Highs will stay much below freezing areawide, nearly 25 degrees below average in portions of northeastern Missouri. Jaja Upper level ridging enters the eastern CONUS behind tonight's system.
This week's warming trend continues as shallow ridge moves into the region.
A leeward trough develops overnight off the eastern Rockies which advects a little bit of moisture in from the south.
414 PM MST Wed Jan 5 2022 Water vapor shows upper trof building into the Great Lakes region, with strong northwest jet extending from the Pac NW through southern portions of the Northern Plains. Warm front attempts to lift into parts of northeast WY and the Black Hills by afternoon, resulting in just a bit of overrunning light snow or flurries.
Synoptically, a trough will pass to the northeast of the southern Colorado region, but the southern periphery of this features will pass over head as it begins to dig over the central US. As the stronger synoptics pass over the eastern plains, light stratiform snow, less than 1 in, is expected, but will be mostly restricted to the northeastern part of the plains, around Kiowa County, given the location of the southern edge of the trough. Also, as this system pushes eastward, a strong cold front will race southward early in the tonight period. The rest of the Pueblo CWA will be "warmer" with temperatures in the 10s to 20s.
545 PM CST Wed Jan 5 2022 For the 00Z TAFs, a strong cold front will move across the terminal sites late this evening and tonight and will be accompanied by gusty north winds for several hours. Upper level trough will push through tonight bringing the colder air and wind chills -5 to -15 Panhandle wide. High's will barely reach or exceed freezing on Thursday with the cold air in place.
Deterministic model soundings depict widespread mid to low clouds streaming in, which could keep us slightly warmer than expected. Gusty northwest winds will weaken through the day Thursday, improving wind chills as the sfc pressure gradient relaxes and Arctic high pressure builds into the Dakotas. By Thursday late afternoon, wind chills should mainly be warmer than -25 below as temperatures rise to the single digits - above zero south of I-90 and near to below zero along and north of I-90. Temperatures start to moderate some as warmer air aloft builds in Thursday night ahead of a broad upper ridge in the West.
An upper trough over the Northern Plains will drop southward tonight and bring an end to the snowfall.
131 PM PST Wed Jan 5 2022 High pressure aloft and weak offshore flow will bring warmer conditions to SoCal through Thursday.
714 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022 A weak cold front will move through Thursday night with chance showers in the evening. Cooler, drier air behind it with a chilly beginning to the weekend.
1029 PM CST Wed Jan 5 2022 Last night's cold front has exited the area, leaving us with cold air and gusty conditions. Highs will stay much below freezing areawide, nearly 25 degrees below average in portions of northeastern Missouri. Jaja Upper level ridging enters the eastern CONUS behind tonight's system.
/issued 528 PM CST Wed Jan 5 2022/ 00Z 06JAN2022 TAFs VFR conditions to come to a temporary end tonight thru tomorrow morning as a weak cold front makes its way across the area.
With the low dewpoint spreads and now light winds, con- ditions should remain favorable over the southern half of the FA for these low IFR/LIFR visibilities. likely through through the overnight and early morning hours (until the cold front makes it down to the coast). Per trends further north, there are hints that the cold front is starting to push south.