Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The airmass has remained very dry in the lower levels thus pcpn has been mostly flurries. This evening, isolated to scattered snow showers will occur along the higher north facing slopes, with accumulations up to 2. Lows tonight are forecast to be cooler due to cold air advection. Thursday afternoon there will be another surge of moisture bringing show to the high country and a isolated to scatter snow showers to the plains. A strengthening ridge over the western CONUS with a trough over the east will continue to bring NNW flow over Colorado. For Thursday evening the upper jet will be over the eastern portions of the state with the exiting trough over NM.
An upper level low sits over eastern Quebec with associated weak troughing extending south over the eastern seaboard. On the surface, an area of low pressure sits over the Canadian Maritimes with the associated frontal boundary extending south over Bermuda and into the Bahamas.
High pressure at the surface will shift east of the forecast area through the period, with winds gradually becoming more southerly in the process. The subtle increase in moisture will result in slightly warmer conditions today, despite the chilly start to the day, as highs range from the middle 60s to lower 70s under mostly sunny skies.
For today, a weak cold front is making its way south, across the Florida peninsula. Beyond today, high pressure temporarily builds to the east, bringing a southerly wind to the region for Friday, with some additional showers possible across the region, with the best chances in the western interior. The high is quickly pushed out of the way by the approach of another cold front over the weekend.
Surface wise, a large and sprawling area of high pressure is centered over the lower Ohio Valley with a ridge extending down the Sunshine State. Plenty of strengthening insolation along with a light north wind will allow high temperatures to climb into the lower to mid 80s. Gentle to moderate mainly northeast winds on most Keys coastal waters will slacken especially on the nearshore waters adjacent to the Upper Keys as the south Florida Mainland develops a thermal trough.
558 AM MDT Thu Apr 5 2018 Today/Tonight: Canadian high pressure will build southeastward into the Upper Midwest tonight in association with subsidence in the wake of a potent upper level low progressing southeast from Saskatchewan/Manitoba to the Upper Great Lakes.
Some fairly steep mid level lapse rates and decent radar returns mean that we have a brief period of 1" or more snow rates, mainly near the Highway 200 corridor. Another concern will be the potential for show showers or even snow squall development in our north and northeast CWA this afternoon and evening as a separate trough swings around southern Manitoba within region of possible differential heating/lingering mid level lapse rates.
High pressure is currently moving east across the Mississippi Valley early this morning. The cool air mass associated the ridge has settled in with 40s down to the I-10 corridor, however as the ridge pushes east today a return flow will begin. The surface east to northeast flow will shift more southeast today as the ridge pushes east.
These warm temperatures will be short lived as a cold front pushes into the area on Friday.
1225 PM EDT Thu Apr 5 2018 After early afternoon snow showers erode, mainly dry weather is expected today under high pressure.
Might start seeing some upslope stratus development tonight ahead of next cold front, becoming more expansive across the area late. Strong cold front expected early Friday. This is a western Canada airmass, and the high pushing into the central Plains should bring lows Friday night down into the teens. WRF indicates an upslope flow precipitation event developing across western Nebraska Friday and spreading south east, tieing into the low level warm advection overrunning developing over south central Kansas by late midday Friday. A cold front will pass across the TAF sites toward the end of the period, with winds increasing from the northeast along with possible low MVFR or IFR CIGS at or just after 12z 6th. Friday will be cooler, but much more windy, creating limited fire weather conditions.
By daytime Friday, the moist layer only extends to around 5000 ft agl, leading to a much stronger capping inversion despite a mix out to warmer max temps expected.
A sharp trough will rotate about the Hudson Bay low into the northern plains early Friday morning as high amplitude ridging persist along the West Coast.
1111 AM CDT Thu Apr 5 2018 Webcams, surface obs, and radar showing snow showers along a cold front heading south from North Dakota into our cwa this morning. It will bring some breezy conditions to the region this afternoon, as high pressure builds in behind this feature. Strong high pressure will be centered over south central Canada Friday morning, with the leading edge of it nosing over the Northern and Central Plains. This precipitation will come to an end Friday morning as the high continues to work its way southward.
In response to the upper disturbance, a cold front is predicted to move SWD across the Plains tonight, then enter North TX Friday. MSAS depicts a weak coastal trough this morning. For Friday, although the coastal trough will have dissipated and convergence associated with the foregoing front will occur north of the CWA, greater moisture/CAPE will contribute to a greater potential for thunderstorm activity during the afternoon hours, with synoptic scale forcing as the limiting factor.
This is in response to a trough of low pressure pushing east across the area. With the lower CIGS and the trough, we could see a little light snow tonight, but any accumulations are should stay at less than 1/2 inch. Forecast confidence is Medium: Some mid level clouds will likely increase in the southwest early this morning ahead of an approaching trough of low pressure. The trough will move through this afternoon into evening, bringing precipitation chances to southern Wisconsin. May see a little rain with snow in the afternoon and early evening given surface temps above freezing. Any higher precipitation rates will likely be snow though due to cooling in the lower levels.
So far, the high and dry air in the low levels are countering the light precip that is showing up on radar. May start as snow, but the HRRR and RAP so far are backing up the prev solutions trend to warmer temps. Max temps then, of course, slightly cooler across the northern third of the state. A series of systems bringing cooler temps and a couple chances for precip and accumulating snowfall. With the colder air in place, southern half of the state gets the northern side of the low. as the edge of the highest snowfall will be a sharp gradient.
A large trough will then quickly move through the area this weekend, bringing a brief window of widespread moderate precipitation followed by a cold front. Have added some PoPs to the higher elevations north of about I-80 for this afternoon. The cloud heights remain high (even Bryce National Park) has ceilings above 7000 ft, so doubtful any measurable precip is occurring even at the highest elevations. Even with partial sunshine possible this afternoon, the 700mb temps are generally supportive for highs in the lower to mid 60s along the Wasatch Front.
This will lead to warm frontogenesis across southern MO and southern IL this morning. The warm front will then lift rapidly north of the CWA by early afternoon with increasing south-southwest low level flow in its wake and pronounced WAA. A cold front will then move south into the region tonight, merging with the aforementioned quasi-stationary warm front this evening just to our north. Snowfall intensity to pickup during about a 6 hour window Friday afternoon/Friday night, with the highest amounts, a 2 to 4 inch band of snow, along and south of I-70 corridor, though most of forecast area to see at least 1 to 2 inches of snow.
949 AM EDT Thu Apr 5 2018 High pressure will linger over the eastern Ohio Valley today.
934 AM EDT Thu Apr 5 2018 After a cool morning with lows in the 40s, temps will warm into the lower to mid 70s under sunny skies. High pressure and mostly sunny skies will prevail today with a dry airmass in place. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to be mainly in the lower to middle 70s.
Expect continued light to moderate snow showers early this morning, with much colder temperatures thanks to a passing cold front.
742 AM EDT Thu Apr 5 2018 After morning snow showers erode, mainly dry weather is expected today under high pressure.
Low pressures will move inland this weekend with strong winds as the primary concern.
514 AM MDT Thu Apr 5 2018 Upper low spinning over northern Saskatchewan is visible on water vapor imagery. The wave associated with the Canadian low will swing through the northern plains tonight, and cold air will spread into the region behind a cold front. Cold high pressure will settle into the northern plains Friday.
Low pressure will move inland this weekend with strong winds being the primary concern.
1055 AM MDT Thu Apr 5 2018 Upper low spinning over northern Saskatchewan is visible on water vapor imagery. The wave associated with the Canadian low will swing through the northern plains tonight, and cold air will spread into the region behind a cold front. Cold high pressure will settle into the northern plains Friday.
1114 AM CDT Thu Apr 5 2018 Webcams, surface obs, and radar showing snow showers along a cold front heading south from North Dakota into our cwa this morning. It will bring some breezy conditions to the region this afternoon, as high pressure builds in behind this feature. Strong high pressure will be centered over south central Canada Friday morning, with the leading edge of it nosing over the Northern and Central Plains. This precipitation will come to an end Friday morning as the high continues to work its way southward.
It will bring some breezy conditions to the region this afternoon, as high pressure builds in behind this feature. Strong high pressure will be centered over south central Canada Friday morning, with the leading edge of it nosing over the Northern and Central Plains. This precipitation will come to an end Friday morning as the high continues to work its way southward.
Winds have already begun to increase over our wind prone locations and with strengthening gradients at the surface and aloft, we have decided to begin the high wind warning early this afternoon. Cooler night on tap with less wind and in the wake of the cold frontal passage.
On Friday, high pressure in the mid Atlantic region will produce a southwest flow of milder air along with mostly sunny skies.
1200 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 High pressure centered over the lower Ohio valley will remain in control across the area through Friday. Low pressure will pass just north of the Great Lakes Friday night, bringing a cold front through the local area.
A mostly cloudy sky and south breeze held temperatures up mainly in the low 30s. VFR conditions will be seen through 18z/24 as a weak front and high pressure move quickly through the Midwest.
326 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 The prefrontal trough convection that developed across the region this afternoon will slowly begin to diminsh this evening as the heating of the day begins to decrease. As the actual cold front moves into the region during the overnight hours and into Friday morning, convection will once again increase out ahead of the main frontal boundary. There are still some concerns that there could be a strong thunderstorm or two in the area as the instability will remain in place until the cold front passes on Friday.
This remains on a diurnal curve for cooler than average temperatures for this time of year. A chilly 1024mb high pressure center is elongated from Arkadelphia and El Dorado to Shreveport and Longview. A warming trend will begin to take shape by Friday as southerly winds return to the region with high pressure shifting east of our forecast area.
Gusty southwest winds and warmer conditions are in store for Friday with afternoon high temperatures ranging from around 50 across south central Lower Michigan, to the mid 50s across west central Indiana.
221 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 High pressure provides dry weather this Thanksgiving day and Friday.
Otherwise, no major changes needed with high pressure and mostly sunny skies in control across the region. High pressure will dominate the weather through Friday. At the same time airmass will start to moderate over the region, allowing for slightly warmer afternoon highs today and even warmer readings on Friday. Ridges and more unsheltered areas may see a slight increase in low temperatures tonight, but still likely below freezing. The models depict a gradual amplification of a trough centered over the Great Lakes heading into the weekend.
306 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 A weak upper level trough of low pressure will move across the region tonight bringing some clouds and maybe a few flurries in the mountains.
235 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017 A high amplitude pattern persists across the nation on this Thanksgiving Day with a deep upper-level longwave trough that extends southwest from the northeast states down the spine of the Appalachian Mountains and into the Florida panhandle while an expansive upper-level ridge was centered offshore just southwest of southern California. Expect fair skies with another cold night across our northern and western counties overnight with strong high pressure nearby, light winds are expected with good radiational cooling conditions expected overnight with freezing temperatures expected north and west. Lows tonight will range from the upper 20's northwest to around 40 southeast with coldest temperatures expected in the lower elevation areas north and west.
151 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 High pressure will build over the area through Friday.
1116 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017 The main story for today will be warming temperatures in a developing southwesterly low level flow as strong low pressure begins to slide along the U. With 925 mb temperatures around 18 C in our southwest, looking at highs into the lower 70s through south central SD, then rapidly tapering downward to the north and east, with highs only in the upper 40s to lower 50s east of Interstate 29. The aforementioned low pressure continues to slide eastward on Friday, pulling a cold front through our area during the day.
324 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017 Weak high pressure was moving eastward, and southerly flow had developed across the entire forecast area. Some parts of west central MN are now gusting around 15 mph as the western trough approaches and gradient increases. Once the short wave goes by tomorrow, upper ridging will ensue across our area.
328 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 High pressure will extend over the area through Friday night with low pressure moving across to the south and southeast.
1110 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017 High pressure ridge axis this morning is along the Ohio River Valley, resulting in southwesterly winds for Central IL. With the winds out of the southwest, warmer temperatures are moving into the region. To that end, have bumped up the highs for today a degree or two, as much of the region is already well into the 40s. Upper level trof over the Ohio river valley to pull away from IL during today, as a weak disturbance exits eastern IL during this morning.
Quiet and warm weather will be the rule for the next several days thanks to an upper level ridge.
305 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 High pressure will dominate the weather through Friday. As the airmass continues to moderate with time over the region, highs here today reached the low 50s in some locations, and are expected to be even warmer in the upper 50s by Friday. This will be aided by southerly return flow as the area of high pressure starts to shift east of the region. Overnight lows tonight will remain on the cold side (below freezing) with light winds and clear skies allowing for good radiational cooling. Kept a strong ridge-valley split in the grids, with some of the sheltered valleys reading some 10 degrees below the neighboring ridges.
108 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 High pressure provides dry weather this Thanksgiving day and Friday.
116 PM MST Thu Nov 23 2017 Current surface map shows warm front pushing into the eastern Dakotas. For tonight, upper trof crosses southern Canada with cold front sliding through the northern plains.
High pressure is centered over the ArkLaTex, with a broad mid-level trough axis quickly approaching the Huntsville CWFA. Scattered cirrus clouds associated with the trough overnight have since dissipated, but there are scattered-broken cumulus clouds developing ahead of the trough over northeast Alabama. The clouds in the east should not last long as the trough quickly shifts east. Another fantastic radiational cooling night is forecast for tonight but with slightly warmer 850mb temps and a moisture surge from the southeast, lows will be slightly warmer, in the upper 20s to middle 30s.
357 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017 Chilly start this morning gave way to a pleasant afternoon with mild temperatures in the lower 60s amid a light north wind and clear sky. Given this setup and the good performance of cooler guidance last night, leaned in that direction for low temperatures tonight as well. This will bring another round of light freezing temperatures to parts of Central Louisiana, with the nearly calm winds also allowing for greater frost potential generally along/north of I-10.
Cooler and unsettled conditions this weekend will result in lowering snow levels just as travelers are heading home this weekend. The river looks to have crested but will remain in flood status until the cooler air arrives tonight.
312 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017 A strong upper-level ridge extending from the coast of socal into the southern plains has produced beautiful weather for Thanksgiving today with mid-afternoon temps in the 70s and light winds.
This will allow temperatures to be considerably warmer compared to yesterday, which is supported by 12z sounding at OUN. /Issued 256 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017/ Cold start this morning before warming trend over the next couple of days ahead of cold front which is expected Friday night.
Happy Thanksgiving! An upper level ridge was positioned over the western U.
345 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017 High pressure centered near Temple Texas is at 1020mb with a broad area of sprawling 1018mb contour stretching from central Texas and overhead into Arkansas. The current air mass is going to drift Eastward very slowly over the next day or so with some warmer Southerly winds soon to return.
419 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 Low pressure will track along the Southeast coast tonight into Friday.
Did up sky cover some as plenty of cirrus is flowing over the mid level ridge south into the forecast area. Upper level ridge building into the region, along with westerly winds will bring much above normal temperatures into the region today. An upper level trough and surface front will cross the region on Friday.
Chance of rain over the North Bay today while the rest of the district should remain dry with continued warmer than normal temperatures.
Pure VFR is expected through the next 24 hours due to the influence of surface and mid-level high pressure. /issued 324 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): 500mb high centered just off the Baja CA coast and a broad mid level trough over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico will maintain a dry northerly flow over South Texas today and Friday. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over Deep South Texas today and tonight spreading along the Texas coast Friday.
248 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017 Temps are currently in the lower to mid 60s under sunny skies and light northerly winds.
High pressure across the region to maintain light and variable winds today and tonight, becoming southwest at 5 to 8 knots on Friday as the high shifts east. This remains on a diurnal curve for cooler than average temperatures for this time of year. A chilly 1024mb high pressure center is elongated from Arkadelphia and El Dorado to Shreveport and Longview.
Showers and wind arrive tonight with cold front. Upper ridge over the Rockies with strong chinook developing. Strongest winds expected around the Little Rockies which will produce their own downslope component so upgraded the High Wind Watch to a Warning. Ridge begins to rebound on Friday but continued pressure rises will keep winds strong enough for Lake Wind Advisory through the day.
Areas of dense fog continue in the Lower Treasure Valley and Upper Weiser Basin where a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 11 am MST. Most of the showers will move into the northern portions of the forecast area along and ahead of a cold front. Rain showers developing this afternoon over the higher terrain. Areas of MVFR-IFR conditions in rain expected late tonight through early Friday associated with a weak cold frontal passage.
842 AM PST Thu Nov 23 2017 High pressure aloft near the West Coast and weak offshore flow will continue to provide record-setting hot temperatures today for many areas.
Cotton Ridge RAWS site in western Cassia county already reported 0.
Strong westerly winds from a passing cold front are starting to materialize in northwest Montana and will continue to spread across the rest of the northern Rockies through the evening hours. Winds will likely be their strongest as the actual cold front moves through the region between 6 and 9 pm north to south. Another potential impact with this cold front will be the lowering snow levels. Dry conditions with an increase in sun will occur Friday afternoon under a building weak ridge.
113 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017 Afternoon GOES-16 water vapor imagery shows that the mid-level trough axis has moved across north Alabama/southern Tennessee. Despite a cold start this morning (most dropped into the 20s), the full sunshine is causing temperatures to respond nicely, with everyone in the low-mid 50s. Another clear/cold night with light/variable winds is on tap for tonight with high pressure. Friday should be another pleasant day, albeit warmer, as weak southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front boosts temperatures by another 5 degrees or so. Highs should reach well into the lower 60s, and based on guidance biases, the forecast will have a few spots reaching the mid 60s.
259 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 High pressure will dominate the weather through Friday. As the airmass continues to moderate with time over the region, highs here today reached the low 50s in some locations, and are expected to be even warmer in the upper 50s by Friday. This will be aided by southerly return flow as the area of high pressure starts to shift east of the region. Overnight lows tonight will remain on the cold side (below freezing) with light winds and clear skies allowing for good radiational cooling. Kept a strong ridge-valley split in the grids, with some of the sheltered valleys reading some 10 degrees below the neighboring ridges.
1158 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017 High pressure ridge axis this morning is along the Ohio River Valley, resulting in southwesterly winds for Central IL. With the winds out of the southwest, warmer temperatures are moving into the region. To that end, have bumped up the highs for today a degree or two, as much of the region is already well into the 40s. Upper level trof over the Ohio river valley to pull away from IL during today, as a weak disturbance exits eastern IL during this morning.
1035 AM MST Thu Nov 23 2017 Latest upper level analysis shows a high amplitude upper ridge over the western CONUS. For today, the upper ridge axis will move eastward over the high plains with even warmer temps expected over the forecast area today. A substantial northern stream trough will affect the Northern Plains on Friday. Northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph will be likely for much of Friday morning as the cold front moves through.
1210 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 High pressure will build across the area today allowing mostly sunny skies but cool temperatures. A very weak upper trof will move across the region tonight bringing some clouds and maybe a few flurries in the mountains.