Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High level cloud cover will increase through tonight on the periphery of a cold front in central Ohio, which will serve to prevent much radiational cooling. A hot and humid weekend is on tap as the southeastern ridge strengthens in response to a slightly deepening central U.
Lows tonight will range from the low to mid 60's across most locations. High pressure off to the east will continue to bring VFR conditions with light winds to all TAF sites. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 89 70 90 71 / 0 10 10 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 90 69 89 69 / 0 10 10 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 64 88 68 89 69 / 0 10 0 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 88 64 88 64 / 0 10 10 30 10.
As we remain situated between high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west, gusty southerly winds have prevailed with wind speeds of 10-15 mph common along with gusts of 20-25 mph. Mostly dry weather is expected for Saturday as the upper ridge strengthens slightly over the area and helps keep showers and storms to our north and west.
457 PM MDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Current surface analysis shows weak low pressure over eastern SD, with secondary cool front mainly south and east of the forecast area. Upper level analysis shows very slow moving trough across the northern and central high Plains. Temps are mostly in the 60s to mid 70s, with some 50s over the higher Black Hills. Unsettled and cool conditions will persist through the weekend as the upper trough only slowly moves south and east across the region.
This evening through Saturday night Great precipitation event for many areas the past 24 hours across western and central Wyoming, along with much cooler temperatures and breezy north wind. The primary area of stratiform rain has moved to southeast WY this afternoon as the trough axis also moves SE. Unstable moist northerly flow follows the trough, with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing just after 10am this morning, mainly over the mountains and southwest WY. With the trough axis moving to western NE into eastern CO overnight, and the large ridge over the Pacific Northwest developing, WY will stay in cool northerly flow on Saturday.
715 PM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021 High pressure maintains mainly dry and warm weather through Saturday.
Currently, an outflow boundary is moving south from a complex of thunderstorms that affected the Texas Panhandle area this evening along a cold frontal boundary. Additional thunderstorms may develop over the higher terrain of the Davis Mountains and Stockton Plateau areas as well.
259 AM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021 High pressure maintains mainly dry and warm weather today.
1025 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Current surface analysis is showing a low level boundary/warm front situated across northwestern IA this afternoon. The remainder of the CWA may remain primarily dry into at least Saturday afternoon, with a slightly better chance toward our western CWA where the upper level trough axis resides. Lows tonight will be mild - in the lower to mid 60s. As the upper level trough slowly nudges eastward on Saturday and skies remain mostly cloudy, temperatures will be a little cooler with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Showers and isolated thunderstorm chances will continue on Sunday with the upper level trough making very little headway eastward. Temperatures will be near seasonal normals with highs in the lower 80s.
Temperatures will gradually warm up today breaking the triple digits in some of our warmer valleys with slightly cooler temperatures east of the Cascades and a cool upper 70's along the Oregon coast. After Sunday, temperatures trend lower as the high shifts to the east over Idaho and the thermal trough weakens and shifts inland.
The cold front is expected to move south and stall somewhere in the area. As an upper-level trough continues to deepen over the western CONUS and move east into the region, an upper-jet is expected to edge into the area. An upper level jet streak will still be positioned just to the northeast of the area leaving the region under the downwind side of the trough axis.
Have included a TEMPO group to reflect this highly conditional risk.
Breezy easterly flow will prevail over the area with a deep ridge of high pressure extending from the western Atlantic across the southeast. Another inverted trough over the waters will move westward across the area today bringing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Convection should die off early this evening as the trough shifts to the west and drying air starts to advect into the area.
To the south, ridging increases from the south and will bring the return to some sunshine late. with gusts into the 20 to 35 range as a moderate pressure gradient remains over our region between a frontal boundary to our north and high pressure to our south. A few showers may clip the Saint Lawrence Valley, otherwise our region will remain dry and muggy with overnight lows across the Lake Plain likely to remain in the low 70s.
320 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 The Quad State region will continue to be sandwiched between low pressure over the Plains and high pressure over the southeast.
251 AM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021 Synoptic setup won't change much over the next 24 hours as the OH Valley remains situated between central CONUS troughing and east coast ridging. This sets up deep SW flow over the area, but models indicate high pressure building over the region, keeping any showers and thunderstorms off to our NW along a quasi-stationary boundary stretching from the Central Plains into the Great Lakes. Expect Sunday morning min temps in the upper 60s roughly east of I-65 and in the low 70s elsewhere.
344 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 Today and tonight: early morning surface analysis had a ridge nosing across our CWA from the northeast from a high centered on the mid Atlantic seaboard. Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed a nearly flat mid level ridge across our CWA from the west and the circulation around an upper level low spinning in the northern Gulf. The mid level ridge from our west will weaken while mid level ridging strengthens from the east. The upper level low in the northern Gulf will track west through tonight and this feature will bring drier air aloft from the east. Temperatures will top out a couple degrees warmer today in the east but overall, afternoon highs will fall a degree or two cooler than normal as most sites top out near 90F.
In the upper levels, a ridge remains over the East Coast and Southeast. A trough is over the Central U. At the surface, high pressure will be over the East Coast and Southeast. Dew points will start to get into the mid and upper 60s late this afternoon and evening in the lower elevations of the Tennessee Valley.
222 AM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021 High pressure maintains mainly dry and warm weather today. High pressure continues to dominate at the surface and aloft with just debris clouds from convection over the Midwest wafting overhead from time to time. High pressure, at the surface and aloft, will strengthen across the region while an upper level trough and associated frontal system remains to our west.
An upper level high pressure system will persist over the region through Saturday, then retrogrades/dissipates as an upper level inverted trough approaches from the east (western Gulf of Mexico), and as another upper trough approaches from the NW. Deterministic runs predict a region of copious moisture, associated with the foregoing upper trough approaches from the east, to approach the CWA Saturday night.
Subsidence in the wake of the departing synoptic trof and drier air advecting in from the north will result is diminishing precipitation chances for the first half of the day. The second is that we will see much cooler highs today with values ranging from the mid to upper 70s across much of the FA to lower 80s across the southeast zones. Enjoy the break from the heat and the pleasant weather during the short term! On Sunday, a very strong mid level anticyclone will plant itself across the Pacific Northwest and into western Canada.
Today Through Sunday Night To begin the period, high pressure will continue to be in control. The upper level ridge has moved east returning southerly flow to the CWA. However, over the past few days, this ridge has acted as a blocking high preventing precip coverage. In the short term, PoPs are expected to be elevated but confidence is not high as PoPs will be dependent on the ridge to east and an approaching upper level trough. The upper level trough should initiate some shower activity for today (Saturday) but could be more confined to NW AR.
Lows tonight will range from the low to mid 60's across most locations. McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 70 90 71 91 / 10 10 30 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 69 89 69 92 / 10 10 30 10 40 Oak Ridge, TN 88 68 89 69 91 / 10 0 30 10 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 64 88 64 90 / 10 10 30 10 40.
The inverted trough currently over our waters will help aid in the development of showers and possibly some storms this morning, primarily over our Gulf waters. Expect daytime highs around 90 with overnight lows in the low 70s.
Upper level high pressure prevails across the region. Upper level high pressure will strengthen slightly from the east.
With the increasing moisture levels come increasing rain chances through the Near Term, with the highest PoPs being Sunday.
We have surface ridging across the Atlantic States with east to southeast flow into Central Alabama. In the upper levels, ridging is present over the Carolinas into the Western Atlantic with overall weak easterly upper flow into Central Alabama. Temperatures will slowly moderate through the short term as ridging aloft builds and warm flow off of the Gulf of Mexico feeds into Central Alabama in the lower levels.
330 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 Satellite imagery this morning is quite interesting across the CONUS with another large MCS across the Plains and an upper low spinning over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A typical summertime pattern is forecast during the short term period with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and overnight lows in the lower 70s.
The convective temperature is on the low side (upper 80s), so it will not take much heating to get convection going.
344 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 Concerns and impacts in the short term will be rainfall chances as upper trough slowly advances east today.
Additional scattered storms possible Mon-Wed given warm/humid airmass but building subtropical ridge may limit coverage and severity a bit more than weekend activity. Eventually more robust trough digs into the Great Lakes and may finally scour out moisture but models remain inconsistent on timing and evolution.
134 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 We begin the day with high pressure situated to our east, a frontal boundary developing far to our north, and plenty of return flow bringing warm, moist air into Middle Tennessee.
An upper level trough is taking shape over the northern CONUS, and will continue to expand across much of the central and southern Plains over the next 24 hours. Meanwhile, the upper ridge over the eastern CONUS and Atlantic Ocean will build westward, stalling the movement of this upper trough.
Today will be the last hot day for a while! A cold front which is now positioned just N of LUB will slowly sink swd today. The highest effective shear will be closer to the sfc front in the far N Permian Basin and N Lea County where the SPC has issued a slight risk for severe weather. Later this evening into early Sunday, our attention will shift to more of a heavy rain event as the cold front stalls near the I-20 corridor. As lift assocd w/an upper lvl trof parked over AZ/NM continues to overspread the region, additional rounds of showers and storms will be possible throughout the day on Sunday. The highest PoPs will shift slightly further W into SE NM and the HWY 54 corridor by Sunday evening.
Cold air advection behind the cold front combined with cloud cover will result in high temperatures about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday. Whether your location receives additional rain or not, most of the day will be cool and gray as the lower levels remain well saturated. The cooler, drier air will inhibit any severe weather today.
The cirrus should persist overnight; some scattered lower clouds can't be ruled out, but there is no sign of organized lift in the lower levels to create much more than that. Again, not much in the way of forcing, in fact, anticyclonic flow will feature aloft with the ridge over the Mid- Atlantic expanding westward. An upper level ridge will be centered to the northeast across the Mid-Atlantic with a trough across the Great Plains. The pattern may finally begin to break down late in the forecast period or just beyond the end of the forecast period as the trough moves eastward.
Otherwise, the upper-level ridging retrogrades slightly, leading to height rises and subsidence across the Ohio Valley. A mid level ridge axis will extend back to the west from the mid Atlantic into the middle Ohio Valley on Sunday. Highs will range from the upper 80s to the lower 90s.
345 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 Active weather will continue through the short term as an upper level trough pushes across the central Plains. This trough will support some isolated convection this afternoon and evening. As the trough deepens across the High Plains, forcing will increase leading to convective initiation. Otherwise, clouds and rain will keep temperatures on the cooler side of guidance.
Dry and hot conditions will once again occur today as 500 mb high pressure shifts west and away from the BRO CWFA. Tonight, and especially on Sunday, precipitation will reenter the forecast as an inverted 500 mb trough with embedded closed mid-level low approaches from the east as precipitable water simultaneously and gradually increases to around 2 inches.
A risk for dense fog will persist as well given the very moist airmass over the cooler waters.
The subtropical ridge remains in place over Texas while the low level flow continues from the southeast. An upper level trough will move out of the rockies into the plains and another one will move across the northern Gulf of Mexico toward Texas. The result will be a weakening of the subtropical ridge over the Southern Plains.
The final weekend in June is off to a quiet start thanks to an elongated upper ridge spanning much of eastern and southern Texas. What few streamer showers are found early this morning along the Upper TX Coast and also offshore of South Padre Island are unlikely to expand into our domain anytime soon; however, much richer moisture is scheduled to arrive tonight courtesy of an upper low retrograding over the northern Gulf. 2 inches within this low which should track squarely over S TX and the RGV by Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, the recent high heat indices should ease below 105 in most areas today, and a couple degrees lower on Sunday as thicknesses fall near the upper low.
/22/ Today and tonight: early morning surface analysis had a ridge nosing across our CWA from the northeast from a high centered on the mid Atlantic seaboard. Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed a nearly flat mid level ridge across our CWA from the west and the circulation around an upper level low spinning in the northern Gulf. The mid level ridge from our west will weaken while mid level ridging strengthens from the east. The upper level low in the northern Gulf will track west through tonight and this feature will bring drier air aloft from the east. Temperatures will top out a couple degrees warmer today in the east but overall, afternoon highs will fall a degree or two cooler than normal as most sites top out near 90F.
This should be more the exception than the rule as we proceed through the day, as midlevel upstream troughing will keep a steady supply of southwest flow aloft over the top of a moist air mass. Synoptic models continue to indicate upstream troughing aloft, which will keep southwest flow over the top of an abnormally moist airmass through the week. Expect daily chances for rain through at least the first part of the week, when the mid level trough remains just west of the forecast area.
High temperatures today and Sunday will be trending a little cooler.
The Upper Ohio River Valley remains wedged between Atlantic ridging and troughing over the central U. However, sfc ridging and warm air aloft will keep the area dry while creating a mix of sun and clouds through the afternoon. Increasing subsidence due to the strengthening Atlantic ridge will favor clearer overnight skies.
Showers have developed across portions of northeast Minnesota this morning due to a trough currently centered over North Dakota.
A cold front will slowly move through the area today, bringing a northerly shift. The cold front is expected to move south and stall somewhere in the area this afternoon. As an upper-level trough continues to deepen over the central and southwestern CONUS and move east into the region, an upper-jet is expected to edge into the area increasing divergence aloft. An upper level jet streak will still be positioned just to the northeast of the area leaving the region under the downwind side of the trough axis.
A ridge is building over the region, and it will build into a heat wave. That moisture will move north and into the ridge that is building over the region. Eventually TS Enrique will be absorbed into the flow around the ridge and it will drag a plume of very moist air with it. First, a ridge this strong would normally also cause very, very dry conditions over the region with humidity reaching the low teens or single digits, but that will not be the case this time. A ridge is building over the region causing causing high pressure east of the Continental Divide and a thermal trough to develop over the Columbia basin. However, the stability of the building ridge will cap the convection at just some afternoon clouds.
Warm and dry areawide today with even warmer temperatures Sunday from Tucson westward.
A slight lull in shower activity will occur during the morning and early afternoon hours, but activity will ramp up again toward 00z as a secondary short wave & associated cold front blast south across eastern MT/WY.
We begin the day with high pressure situated to our east, a frontal boundary developing far to our north, and plenty of return flow bringing warm, moist air into Middle Tennessee.
Satellite imagery this morning is quite interesting across the CONUS with another large MCS across the Plains and an upper low spinning over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A typical summertime pattern is forecast during the short term period with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and overnight lows in the lower 70s.
Isolated thunderstorms remain possible along the high terrain today.
Synoptic setup won't change much over the next 24 hours as the OH Valley remains situated between central CONUS troughing and east coast ridging. This sets up deep SW flow over the area, but models indicate high pressure building over the region, keeping any showers and thunderstorms off to our NW along a quasi-stationary boundary stretching from the Central Plains into the Great Lakes. Expect Sunday morning min temps in the upper 60s roughly east of I-65 and in the low 70s elsewhere.
629 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 Active weather will continue through the short term as an upper level trough pushes across the central Plains. This trough will support some isolated convection this afternoon and evening. As the trough deepens across the High Plains, forcing will increase leading to convective initiation. Otherwise, clouds and rain will keep temperatures on the cooler side of guidance.
959 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 A broad area of high pressure anchored off the U. Anticyclonic flow around the broad ridge is leading to SE-SSE winds here at the sfc. Troughing and generally weak mid-lvl vorticity stretching to the NE of this feature will cross the area today and provide some focus for shower/thunderstorm activity, though it is expected to be isolated in coverage. A typical summertime pattern is forecast during the short term period with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and overnight lows in the lower 70s.
Aloft, a synoptic trof has stalled over the Plains and looks to remain there through at least mid to late week. Then the trof should slowly begin to lift to the northeast by the end of the week. With this trof in place we can expect to see daily high temperatures much closer to average (and even slightly below average) for this time of year.
343 AM MDT Sat Jun 26 2021 A large dome of high pressure will be situated over the Pacific northwest through the short term. Our forecast area will be on the eastern edge of this ridge which will result in a northerly flow aloft today and Sunday. A weak cold front will move across the forecast area late this morning into early this afternoon. This mainly has to do with the removal of the retrograding upper low that the models had in for the past few days. Latest models key in on the upper ridge holding strong over the PacNW then elongating along the Continental Divide as it slowly shifts eastward.
738 AM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021 [Through 12Z Sunday] An inverted/coastal trough will move west across the area today with showers, currently over the coastal waters, moving onshore this morning and, with diurnal heating, becoming tstms near 16 utc. Breezy easterly flow will prevail over the area with a deep ridge of high pressure extending from the western Atlantic across the southeast. Another inverted trough over the waters will move westward across the area today bringing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Convection should die off early this evening as the trough shifts to the west and drying air starts to advect into the area.
630 AM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021 High pressure maintains mainly dry and warm weather today.
A cold front will slowly move through the area today, bringing a northerly shift. The cold front is expected to move south and stall somewhere in the area. As an upper-level trough continues to deepen over the western CONUS and move east into the region, an upper-jet is expected to edge into the area. An upper level jet streak will still be positioned just to the northeast of the area leaving the region under the downwind side of the trough axis.
The Quad State region will continue to be sandwiched between low pressure over the Plains and high pressure over the southeast.
but the convection has prevented the lower clouds from becoming widespread. A risk for dense fog will persist as well given the very moist airmass over the cooler waters.
411 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 Overall look for another day of rain showers with slightly warmer, near normal, temperatures. Broad trough pattern looks to remain across the region today. Showers continue across the main trough this morning across the southeast, and will be slow to move out through the morning hours. Sunday sees redevelopment of a broad trough across the area as another weak wave moves down in northerly flow. The upcoming work week then sees a strong ridge of high pressure build across the western US. This ridge looks to bring warming and drying conditions across the state as it builds north and eastward.
With such warm daytime high temperatures, overnight low temperatures will be in the lower 70's west of the Cascades and lower 60's east of the Cascades. Those forecasts should show how anomalous this event is, especially with it occuring in a statistically cooler time of summer compared to late August, the statistically warmest time of the year. After Sunday, temperatures trend lower as the high shifts to the east over Idaho and the thermal trough weakens and shifts inland.
1002 AM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021 High pressure in place across the area will remain for the next several days keeping a general easterly wind flow with a weak sea breeze along the coast, and afternoon and evening showers and storms developing. A little drier air moves over the area for Sunday as some upper ridging builds over the peninsula, lowering rain chances into the scattered to numerous range, with the highest chances south. High pressure will be in place across the waters through the period, with east to southeast flow prevailing and a weak sea breeze near the coast possible each day.