Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
641 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015 ALL IS QUIET AT THIS TIME BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVED OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY. COLD FRONT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT APPEARS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA INTO NE TX. /ISSUED 420 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/ COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY VERY NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS LGT N-NE WINDS MARK THE LEADING EDGE OF BOUNDARY. HIGHS COULD STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 80 AT SOME LOCATIONS WHERE THICK CLOUD COVER PERSISTS IN COOLER AIR. RAIN CHANCES TO FINALLY DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH BY EARLY MONDAY WITH COOLER UPPER RIDGE BACKDOORING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY.
1250 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
However, as the high continues to mosey on out of the region, surface southerly flow will return, looking to dominate from tonight through much of the rest of the forecast period.
SOME EVIDENCE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT THIS MORNING BASED ON LOWER DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF MIDDLE TN AND OUR NRN PLATEAU COUNTIES. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 83 64 80 59 / 10 10 20 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 78 62 77 58 / 20 10 20 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 78 61 78 56 / 20 10 20 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 76 59 74 55 / 30 40 40 30.
THE NAM AND HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT THE OKLAHOMA CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN A MESOSCALE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL DRIVE THE RAIN COOLED AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER AROUND NOON. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SMALL COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SOUTH OVER THE DFW AREA BY 20Z. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.
Despite the northerly component to the low- level flow, a slow warming trend is expected as 500 mb heights rise with the development of a ridge over the Ohio Valley. As far as the specific details, today will be a little on the cool side in the wake of yesterdays cold frontal passage.
721 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
Although a few sprinkles remain over the Lake Cumberland region, most areas have dried out with the cooler post-frontal airmass entering the Ohio Valley.
906 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK, KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND THE WEATHER DRY. COLD FRONT WILL EXIT PRIOR TO SUNRISE. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN QUICKLY, AND SATELLITE SHOWS RAPID CLEARING TO THE WEST. DESPITE MUCH COOLER AIR MASS, WE FEEL THE GUIDANCE IS TOO COOL. CONTINUED DRY AND QUIET WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT RIDGING, BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL BE THE DOMINANT PLAYERS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WILL ACT TO DEFLECT MOST OF THE ENERGY/MOISTURE WITH AN OHIO VALLEY TROUGH INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHEASTERN STATES, WHILE ALSO KEEPING MUCH OF THE JET ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM UP OVER CANADA.
715 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY BUT EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MUCH OF THE WEEK.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER MUCH OF TEXAS.
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AFTER 06Z MONDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WELL EAST OF THE GEORGIA COAST. IN WAKE OF A DEEP MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST AND THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
1109 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 HYDRO HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN FAIR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL FLOAT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS BUT OVERALL EXPECT PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THESE CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL PASS OVER THE CWA TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL COMPACT SHORT WAVES HELPING TO CARVE OUT THE TROUGH.
910 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY BUT EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL SOON EXIT THE CWA. TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA.
A cold front will move through the area beginning around 12Z Monday morning, and should be south of all area TAF sites by around 16Z. /issued 153 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015/ An upper ridge will reside over southeast new Mexico and west Texas through the coming week.
312 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAVE SWEPT THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO EARLY THIS AM AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED EAST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
Winds will shift to the north with gusts generally 20-25 kts in E OK, 15-20 kts in NW AR behind a cold front that will move through today. /ISSUED 304 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015/ Cold front currently moving into Central/NE Kansas early this morning, currently located just south of a Hutchinson. Not significantly cooler behind front this afternoon and high temperatures are still expected to warm into the mid 80s across Northeast Oklahoma.
240 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 WITH NUMEROUS STRONG CYCLONES AFFECTING NORTH AMERICA UNDER AMPLIFIED FLOW. OUR WEATHER MAKER TODAY IS SHORT WAVE OR CLOSED LOW THAT IS DROPPING OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PASSING FORECAST AREA QUICKLY THIS MORNING BUT MAINLY MARKING DRIER AIR WHILE STRONGEST WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR IS LOCKED UP BACK TO THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE WAVE. PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MEAN UPPER TROUGH SET UP OVER EASTERN U.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND USHER COOLER WEATHER INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. TODAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING LATE TONIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING TROF FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE IN THE VCNTY OF JAMES BY AT 12Z TUE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC AND SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUE NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN MILD TUE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DESPITE MORE CLOUD COVER AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN. MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WED WILL BE A BIT COOLER IN THE WAKE OF OF THE FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH NOT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
612 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST JUST OFF OF THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH LATE WEEK.
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONLY THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEAK RIDGING WILL HELP BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALSO TAKE 1-3 DEGREES OFF OF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND PROBABLY TOMORROW AS WELL IN THE AREA OF THE FIRE AND WHERE THE SMOKE HAS DRAINED.
332 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2015 GENERAL WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN US.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. SHORT TERM MODELS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST BORDER ZONES AROUND MIDDAY. DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODEL DATA SUGGEST A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. IT APPEARS THE LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE. CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
340 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. USHERING IN MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS AND SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS IN THE EAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THINK THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. THEN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THE AREA TUESDAY.
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA THROUGH FARGO DOWN THROUGH MOBRIDGE. WINDS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS IN MOBRIDGE. WHICH PUT BUFFALO RIDGE REGION ON THE EDGE OF HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WILL REDUCE MIXING AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM ALOFT. BUT HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES WARMER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TILL THE WINDS DECREASE AND THE TEMPERATURES TUMBLE.
136 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH BREEZY AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT IN THE UPPER PLAINS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT COLDER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE PASSING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. A GOOD POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TO SEE HIGHS REACHING 70 AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH.
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD THRU THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. WITH AN UPR RIDGE OVR THE WESTERN STATES ON MONDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE SERN CO PLAINS WL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY.
1244 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 A warm air mass is currently in place across the region as highs are in the lower to middle 80s this afternoon. An upper level trough is currently spreading east into the northern plains this afternoon. The trough will continue to track east tonight and Monday pushing into the Great Lakes region by Monday evening. The trough will push a cold front south through the area Monday morning. A cooler air mass will spread into the area but not overly cool as highs in the middle 70s will still occur Monday afternoon.
335 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 As high pressure sits over the southeastern US, a weak/dry cold front will move across the CWA today. However, ahead of the front, temps are expected to remain above normal, with middle 70s expected in the northwest, to the lower 80s in the southeast. Deepening upper low over far southern Manitoba will slowly fill over central Ontario tonight.
For today, a cold front will continue to drop southward from southern Kansas and into Texas by late afternoon. A strong pressure gradient early will give north winds of 20 to 35 mph, then as a ridge of high pressure builds into western Kansas in the afternoon, the winds will slacken way off to 10 to 20 mph. Highs today will be much cooler and in the mid to upper 70s with lots of sunshine expected. With clear skies and light winds, the overnight lows may be cooler than guidance.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD. BUT WINDS MIGHT STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP COVERAGE ON THE LOW/ISOLATED SIDE.
Building high pressure along with plenty of sunshine and lack of any substantial onshore flow will lead to unseasonably hot weather across the interior of NorCal the next several days.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
220 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN U. SUB-FREEZING TEMPS WERE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH ACROSS MCKEAN AND POTTER COUNTIES FOR US TO DECLARE AN OFFICIAL END TO THE GROWING SEASON THERE. THE EASTERN VALLEYS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE TOTALLY AND THE COOLER READINGS NEAR 40F WILL BE FOUND THERE.
NEEDLESS TO SAY WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND RED FLAG WARNING. THE STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. AND STRONGER SURGE OF WIND EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS ALBERTA INTO SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THE CURRENT END TIMES OF 12 UTC WEST AND 18 UTC CENTRAL FOR THE HIGH WIND WARNING MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED OR TRANSITIONED TO A WIND ADVISORY FOR A TIMEFRAME LATER INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY.
AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY THANKS TO BROAD RIDGING ALOFT.
Wrapped- up upper low was pushing east into northern Minnesota with rather clear skies over Kansas.
BIG CHANGES WILL OCCUR TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM KANSAS CITY TO WEST OF GREEN BAY RACES SOUTHEAST AND CROSSES THE MID STATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD EXPAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AND AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 90 DEGREES.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF IS MOVING EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ALOFT. AND THE HIGH WINDS WARNING HAD EARLIER BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP OVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN A BIT ON MONDAY AS WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA, ALLOWING FOR DRY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA. BY TUESDAY, THE RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ONCE AGAIN RETURNS TO MONTANA.
DRY AND COOLER WITH A LIGHT FREEZE IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO NEXT 24 HOURS. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS IS BRINGING A COOLER AND EVEN DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES COOLER OVER THE EAST TODAY. LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
AS MAIN UPPER LOW CROSSES NORTHERN MINNESOTA. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TREK EAST AS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THERE IS A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER NORTH OF NORTH DAKOTA. THIS LOW IS SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD AND THE FRONT IS NOW ENTERING THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND OUR REGION TO THE SOUTH WILL ORIENT THE LOW- LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA TONIGHT. WHILE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE COOLER COMPARED WITH TODAY.
432 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2015 Relatively warm and dry high pressure will be present over the Northern Rockies for the majority of this week.
Winds should diminish quickly after sunset, allowing the temperatures to drop into the lower 50s north and into the lower 60s south.
600 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 Mild temperatures were in place across the region early this morning in advance of a cold front that was moving across Kansas and northern Missouri. Once the front moves through the area, a slightly cooler airmass will filter into the Ozarks for today. Overnight temperatures will fall into the 40s as the cooler air moves into the region.
242 AM PDT MON OCT 12 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH MID WEEK, BRINGING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TO NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS.
STACKED LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIFT NE TODAY ALLOWING WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL GRADUALLY ERODE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH WARM INTO THE LOW 80S INLAND TO UPPER 70S COAST. TONIGHT LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT FARTHER SOUTHEAST OVER S FL AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE LOCAL AREA. INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WITH THE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT AND PERSISTENT FOG DEVELOPMENT. TUE WARMER AND BREEZY WSW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW/MID 80S INLAND.
429 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE A FRESHENING SOUTHERLY BREEZE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND MOVES SOUTHEAST. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE EVERY DEGREE OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE SINCE WE WILL HAVE FULL SUN AND 8H ARE NOW INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS C. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY STAY JUST BELOW 70 SINCE THE MIXING WILL NOT BE AS DEEP THERE. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE INSTABILITY UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO FORM. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND BRING COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) The cold front has moved into north and west central Missouri and will enter the northwestern CWA shortly.
A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THIS LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE DUE TO A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
409 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST JUST OFF OF THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH LATE WEEK.
BUT STRONG RADIATION INVERSION WILL PRECLUDE MIXING ANY OF THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACE UNTIL EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN SPEEDS BEGIN TO DECREASE. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL ACTUALLY RISE A BIT BY LATER THIS MORNING AS FLAT WESTERN CONUS RIDGING HOLDS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.
OTHER SMALLER CONCERN WILL BE STRATUS CLOUDS FOLLOWING THE MAIN CANADIAN COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED AT 05Z FROM NEAR DEVILS LAKE TO BISMARCK NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE RAISED HIGHS A BIT IN THE SOUTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH COOLER LOWER TO MID 60S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK.
A dry cold front is continuing to march south thru the TX Panhandle. Latest HRRR and RAP13 High Resolution models bring the cold front into the Northern Permian Basin and Low Rolling Plains just after sunrise. The last time the low temperature at MAF dropped down to 50 or lower was April 30th! Ridging will be centered over the Southern Intermountain West this week with a dry northerly flow aloft and low level southwest downslope flow. The upper low that gave us the rain the end of last week will continue its circuitous route to the CA coast and then open into a wave by the weekend.
622 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. USHERING IN MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS AND SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS IN THE EAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THINK THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. THEN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THE AREA TUESDAY.
404 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PANHANDLES BY 12Z TO 14Z THIS MORNING. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SHARPLY COOLER. ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER.
148 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH ON TUESDAY. CLEARING SKIES AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S MONDAY AFTERNOON. FAVORED WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SURGING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SO DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE 5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. WEAK RETURN FLOW AND SLIGHTLY BUILDING THICKNESS VALUES WILL ALLOW READINGS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
304 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 Cold front currently moving into Central/NE Kansas early this morning, currently located just south of a Hutchinson. Not significantly cooler behind front this afternoon and high temperatures are still expected to warm into the mid 80s across Northeast Oklahoma.
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND INTO CALIFORNIA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
COORDINATED WITH MPX TO EXPAND THE HIGH WIND WARNING A TIER OF COUNTIES EASTWARD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER NE ND/NW MN. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. TEMPS COULD BE A BIT WARMER IN AREAS IN THE EAST IF CLOUDS REMAIN STUBBORN. TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH MORE PLEASANT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.
For today, a cold front will continue to drop southward from southern Kansas and into Texas by late afternoon. A strong pressure gradient early will give north winds of 20 to 35 mph, then as a ridge of high pressure builds into western Kansas in the afternoon, the winds will slacken way off to 10 to 20 mph. Highs today will be much cooler and in the mid to upper 70s with lots of sunshine expected. With clear skies and light winds, the overnight lows may be cooler than guidance. Skies will be clear with highs warming into the mid 80s as a warmer airmass spills across the Rockies and into western Kansas.
338 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 H5 ANALYSIS THIS EVENING HAD A CLOSED LOW OVER SERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SWD INTO THE NEBR PANHANDLE. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE REMAINED ENTRENCHED OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH A SECONDARY CLOSED LOW LOCATED NEAR CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST EARLIER THIS EVENING AND WAS LOCATED FROM ROUGHLY JUST WEST OF WICHITA. A SECONDARY SHOT OF STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD SUNRISE AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NERN NEBRASKA. COUPLED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGH PRESSURE. A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PULL COOLER AIR FROM THE HIGHER LATITUDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH LATE-WEEK.
RIDGE TOP WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30-35KTS ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MONDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN AREAS OF LLWS MAINLY VCNTY KCOD-KDUB. TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DRY COLD FRONT THAT IS PASSING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER TONIGHT.
603 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.