Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
920 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020 Mostly clear and quiet weather continues tonight with high pressure in control. Expecting several small disturbances to pass over the Lower Ohio Valley this week, but they aren't expected to have much of an impact on the weather. So, what does this mean? Well, with the high pressure moving away from the area, moist southerly flow will move in and push moisture levels higher across the region.
High pressure settles over the area late in the weekend. Lows tonight are expected to range from the mid to upper 60s NW to the low to mid 70s SE. High in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s NW to the low 70s SE.
A broad area of low pressure also exist along the front. Moisture convergence in the low levels was almost right on top of I-59.
A dry west-northwest flow aloft will continue through Saturday as an upper trough moves through the region. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer, but still slightly below normal.
307 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020 At the upper-levels, there is a ridge over much of the central half of the country, while a trough sits to the east. At the surface, high pressure is located in the Eastern Great Lakes which will leave us with this one last morning of cool temperatures in the low to mid 60s today. A weak upper level trough in Missouri will struggle to bring precipitation to the Quad State due to the lingering dry mid-levels. As the high drifts to the east, the environment becomes more favorable for precip this evening/tonight with thunderstorm development possible beginning around the evening hours. The slowly drifting upper- level trough will continue to bring a chance of showers and storms Sunday.
230 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 Weak high pressure keeps the weekend mostly dry but unsettled conditions loom nearby so can't rule out isolated to scattered rain showers this weekend. a 1022 millibar ridge was draped across the area. but a few degrees cooler at the immediate coast given expected onshore flow. Mostly clear tonight under weak ridging.
Mid level troughing will extend from the central Gulf coast northeastward into the Appalachians, sandwiched between two height centers.
There is not much change in the overall weather pattern with an upper ridge dominating the short term weather.
Upper level ridging is currently overhead bringing a neutral flow to the area.
Mid level moisture gradient does work east into the lower Great Lakes later tonight into Sunday morning within lower amplitude westerly flow aloft.
1231 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020 With temperatures warming aloft, stratus and the placement of the CWA well between the two systems with some weak ridging aloft, convective development looks less likely until the wave to the west moves closer tonight. Temperatures will be a bit cooler for Saturday to the north of the front that sets up mainly south of the CWA. The period begins on Sunday with a surface cold front and mid level trough passing through the region.
1232 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020 Widespread VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through the period as upper level high pressure begins to build back in over the region. Today Through Sunday An upper ridge currently over Texas will move east through the weekend. A warm front moving through Arkansas will also enhance the lift in the north part of the state. High temperatures Saturday will be in the lower to mid 90s and in the mid to upper 90s Sunday. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s and in the lower to mid 70s Saturday night.
Breezy conditions are likely this afternoon ahead of a weak cold front.
High pressure will result in at least one more dry day through Saturday.
221 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020 Ongoing convection, similar to last night, is currently most focused just NW of the CWA where the low level jet is focused. Max heat indices may near the 105 degree advisory criteria over the west today, but even if the heat index briefly reaches criteria the impacts should be minimized due to breezy winds and the fact that this is the first day in this stretch of warmer conditions.
The return flow was also nudging dewpoints upwards, with mid afternoon readings in the lower to mid 60s over much of the area. Otherwise, tonight's lows will be warmer than the past several nights due to increasing humidity levels and southerly winds holding at least above 5 to 10 mph through the night. Saturday will be noticeably more humid as dewpoints climb into the lower 70s by afternoon. However, the farther out in time the lower the confidence with regard to timing/intensity of these waves.
Upper ridging will be in control Sunday and Sunday night. A weak Piedmont trough is still expected to be present. Diurnal chances for showers and storms will continue as well, with convection developing along the lee side trough/piedmont trough, seabreeze and/or outflows. Chances for precip may increase some late week, possibly above climo, as a mid/upper level trough approaches from the west. High temps through the period will generally be around 90/lower 90s with lows in the lower to mid 70s.
A quasi-zonal flow aloft will be in place, while mid level high pressure and sfc ridging remain over the northern half of the Florida peninsula. 8 inches, daytime temps reaching the low-mid 90s, along with returning sea breeze boundaries in the afternoon hours. Expect temperatures to continue to hit the high 80s near the coast, and the mid 90s inland and west coast.
115 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020 Very warm mid-level mid-level temperatures have spread eastward off the higher terrain today. Upper level ridge axis remains in place across the Central and Southern Plains Saturday. Another cold front will move into northern Nebraska Sunday.
357 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020 A 595 dam ridge (at 500 mb) anchored over the Southern Plains spells a return to more typical early August conditions across the Mid-South this weekend. The mid-level anticyclone is forecast to slide a bit more to the east over the Arklatex through Sunday, continuing northwest flow aloft for our neck of the woods. Most areas will then remain dry tomorrow with highs again in the low/mid 90s, but isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon, generally east of a Jackson/Tupelo line.
Dry conditions expected tonight as upper level ridging continues to build into the region. Overnight lows will fall into the low to mid 70s areawide.
Temperatures are forecast to top out in the 90s across the majority of the area this afternoon as an upper level ridge builds over the region and the low level winds increase out of the south.
142 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 Dry and warm weather is expected through the weekend under high pressure. Dry weather is expected tonight under building high pressure.
An upper-level ridge will build across the south-central U. with the CWA on the east side of the ridge. GFS and NAM both suggest a weak vorticity max moving over the upper ridge by Saturday night/Sunday.
A weak mid to upper level flow pattern continues across the north central Gulf Coast region this evening as our area remains located to the south of weak troughing extending southwestward across the Tennessee Valley and adjacent northern portions of MS/AL/GA. Our area is also positioned to the north of a ridge axis extending from Texas through the FL peninsula and adjacent western Atlantic. A persistent weather pattern is anticipated across our forecast area through the weekend as flow aloft is expected to remain weak between mean ridging from the western Atlantic through much of the Gulf and into Texas and as mean troughing extends from the Eastern Seaboard through the southeastern states. Lows Saturday night will continue to range in the lower to mid 70s inland and in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees along the immediate coast and beaches.
135 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 High pressure in the lower Great Lakes will slowly track southeast into the Ohio Valley on Saturday.
The lee trough will prevail over the greater region. There will be a downslope southwesterly component to the low level winds. The highest readings are expected from Ellis county southward to Comanche county and points east. 700-hPa temperatures are quite warm at 15C and the mid level ridge is building in from the south as well.
441 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 Under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, mainly east to southeast winds are holding temperatures in the lower to mid 80s in most island communities.
1213 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 High pressure and the associated dry and stable air mass in place over SE Michigan will persist through today, promoting mainly clear skies and calm/very light winds. Weak southwest return flow around the high in the afternoon hours will begin to spread in some mid clouds in during the evening hours, otherwise it looks like diurnal CU will even struggle to develop during the day. A similar profile offered a larger range in lows in recent nights, so will again broaden the low temperature distribution - coldest rural locations again upper 40s/lower 50s while parts of metro Detroit remain near 60. Greater potential of diurnal convective development seemingly exists with northward extent, given closer proximity to the higher theta-e content and a weaker capping inversion.
Cold front in central ND moving east and there are scattered storms with it. A cold front will be pushing east across ND later tonight. The cold front will usher in drier air for Saturday. High pressure is on schedule to provide quieter weather on Mon through Wed, with the next chance for stronger convection presenting on Thu.
The lee trof will not be as apparent as it was Fri and even though there will be isold-sct SHRA/TSRA in said area the spatial/temporal extent will less than Fri. By Mon the consensus is that mid-level ridge will have repositioned to the w favoring a light nw mid-level steering component. The mid-level ridge will slowly build back ewd Tue-Sat resulting another slow trend up in high temps.
332 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020 Today and Tonight: With upper ridging continuing in place across the region, this will result in mostly dry conditions today.
317 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 High pressure for the weekend with a rising temperature trend. The exception will be in the northeast mountains in the highest ridges where isolated convection may be able to form with a slightly greater moisture depth in the lower levels. Should stay below 90 for the most part, but the mid to upper 80s in the lowlands should be expected with the flat cumulus field in place. Sunday should be fairly dry and quiet with ridging in the upper levels and high pressure at the surface.
A weak cold front will bring breezy winds on Saturday. After a cool and comfortable weekend, warmer weather is expected early in the work week.
305 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020 The center of the persistent upper level ridge dominating our pattern recently is slowly but gradually shifting east over the course of the weekend. Daytime orographic convection will also continue daily as monsoon moisture lifts north on the western periphery of the southern upper ridge. Temperatures will continue to be warmer than normal with a mild overnight, especially locations receiving rainfall. Given the orientation of the ridge shifting east and a weaker upper level trough farther north, convection later today is not expected to be as widespread or make it as far east as yesterday and last night, and the NBM POPs seemed reasonable.
Broad ridge extending from the Wrn Atlc basin across the FL peninsula wl provide for light winds. The area will be between high pressure over the Gulf and subtropical ridge to the east, keeping a light and somewhat variable wind flow across the region. Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic will remain across the area into mid week, but will then shift just north of central Florida later in the week.
Temps continue to be above normal with the low level southerly wind component.
Tonight: NAM/GFS suggest some storms later this evening, but upon further investigation they appear originate from MCV or remnants of storms last evening on the TX/NM border which move northeast around the upper ridge.
High pressure settles over the area late in the weekend. High temps will be a bit warmer ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s.
As the mid-level ridge continues to build in from the west on Saturday, subsidence will increase, leading to decreased chances of shower development and increasing temperatures. High temperatures will likely be a few degrees above what was recorded the past few days for a majority of the area, topping out in the low-to-mid 90s. The mid-level ridge weakens in the period from Saturday night to Sunday, resulting in weakening subsidence and the return of larger chances for convective development. There is low confidence in the potential for influence of local vorticity maxima traversing the ridge to increase coverage of showers. Highs will remain in the low-to-mid 90s, with slightly lower temperatures possible in any regions of shower development, with lows again in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Southerly flow could push a few showers into the lower elevations north of the Mogollon Rim, so places like Winslow, Holbrook, and Petrified Forest also have around a 10 percent chance of precipitation on Saturday afternoon. The center of high pressure is forecast to remain south of our area, resulting in a drier than normal air mass and occasional southwest breezes of 10-20 mph.
/28/ Rest of tonight: Strong surface ridging at the surface & aloft is keeping drier air situated over the region. Lows will be closer to normal in the low 70s, while cooler north of I-20 & especially into the Highway 82 & Highway 45 corridors, into the upper 60s. /DC/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Saturday: Mid level ridging from TX across the northern Gulf of Mexico will result in continued warming in the column over the forecast area through Saturday. At the surface, persistent ridge axis from the OH valley across the TN and lower MS valleys will maintain the wedge of dry air that we have seen of late. Although temperatures Saturday will be a few degrees warmer, afternoon RHs around 40 percent over much of the area will keep heat indices only up to around 100.
1140 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020 Aviation - As high moves east rain chances increase - Warmer -- As high moves east rain chances increase -- High pressure over Michigan is producing a stellar summer day. Highs around 80 and dewpoints in the lower 50s have created quite comfortable conditions. We'll see one more night with lows in the 50s then the high moves east and south flow develops. The upper ridge is going to flatten this weekend as a short wave moves across the northern tier of states. This wave will push a cold front into Wisconsin where storms are expected Saturday and Sunday.
Another cold front will pass through tonight, again shifting winds to the north. However, unlike yesterday, much cooler temperatures and more modest dewpoints are brought with it, with highs only reaching the upper 70s to low 80s for sunday. However, cluster analysis of ensembles continues to indicate a possibility of a trough developing over the Pacific NW after midweek.
In a nutshell, upper level high pressure remains centered along the Red River this morning and will be expanding to the east with time, becoming the dominant weather feature by the end of the period. In addition, temperatures will also be on the increase with highs back in the mid 90s although readings will be a little cooler in the higher terrain areas. As such, no heat related headlines will be forth coming this morning but the higher heat index values on Sunday are a little more widespread and may require a heat advisory. Precipitation chances will actually decrease on Sunday as the high pressure continues to build in along with widespread subsidence.
However, with moist south flow continuing in the low levels, patchy low clouds are likely to develop by dawn across the I- 10 corridor. The center of a strong upper level ridge will continue over West Central Texas today, with 500 mb heights peaking around 595 dm. South to southeast winds will continue today due to surface ridging over the Gulf and troughing in the lee of the Rocky Mountains.
831 PM PDT Fri Aug 7 2020 A trough of low pressure over the region will continue to weaken this weekend, bringing a slight warming trend. Temperatures in inland areas will get closer to normal as the trough weakens and high pressure builds in from the east. A slight warming trend will occur this weekend as high pressure builds in from the east, with minor day to day changes in temperatures expected for the workweek.
Dry conditions expected tonight as upper level ridging continues to build into the region. Overnight lows will fall into the low to mid 70s areawide. Other than some few to scattered CU and Cirrus, dry conditions to prevail as upper level ridging builds over the region. /Tonight through Saturday Night/ Upper ridge centered over central TX continues to strengthen, effectively ending the nw flow regime we've had in place over the last few days. Remnants of this morning's convection over ern OK/wrn AR continue to infringe upon our far nrn areas, but redevelopment seems to be being squashed by the increasing subsidence in association with the ridge. Ridge to hold its place through the short term pd. This will spell much warmer temps than we've become accustomed to in August of 2020.
seeing Tds in the low to mid 50s with a 60 Td at Sidney at 2 AM.
342 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 An upper ridge will build across the southeast through the short term.
Mostly clear and quiet weather continues tonight with high pressure in control. Expecting several small disturbances to pass over the Lower Ohio Valley this week, but they aren't expected to have much of an impact on the weather. So, what does this mean? Well, with the high pressure moving away from the area, moist southerly flow will move in and push moisture levels higher across the region.
Despite high pressure trying to take hold of the area, there will still be a touch of moisture abound and a weak surface boundary bisecting our forecast area.
A subtle MCV near Lubbock will lift northward around the ridge and into extreme NW OK by early this evening. Afternoon temps will be slightly warmer today than yesterday under the influence of the upper ridge and increasing thicknesses.
1150 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020 The cold front was near Cando, Devils Lake to Jamestown to west of Oakes at 0430z. A cold front will be pushing east across ND later tonight. The cold front will usher in drier air for Saturday. High pressure is on schedule to provide quieter weather on Mon through Wed, with the next chance for stronger convection presenting on Thu.
1101 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020 Dry and warm weather is expected through the weekend under high pressure. Dry weather is expected tonight under building high pressure.
Upper level ridge over the Central Rockies and Central Plains will remain in place through Saturday. A weak short wave trough will round the top of the ridge late tonight and Saturday. Also, just a slight increase in moisture over the higher terrain south of I-70 could produce a few high based showers and storms. Highs will be a slightly cooler, but most locations over northeast Colorado are expected to reach the 90s again.
Today through Sunday night Upper high over the Panhandles and west Texas today will shift further east tonight and Sunday near the Red River Valley across southern Oklahoma and north Texas and then further east over northeast Texas by Sunday night.
1212 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 High pressure will remain just north of the area through Saturday while weak low pressure tracks south of the Gulf of Maine.
357 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 High pressure will push slowly southeast across the region through the weekend, leading to dry conditions and a gradual warming trend. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will return for the first part of the work week as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
258 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 High pressure at the sfc will remain in control for another day. Expect plenty of sun today with light winds and warmer temps. For the work-week forecast, pattern looks about the same every day, with a juicy airmass in place and a weak flow over the lower Ohio Valley. High pressure will continue to provide fair weather and light and variable winds today.
Upper ridging will be in control Sunday and Sunday night. A weak Piedmont trough is still expected to be present.
An upper level trough axis west of the region will ease into the forecast area on Saturday. Upper ridging continues to slide over the state from the east through the short term with ample moisture remaining in place. The ridging will lead to very warm temperatures on Sunday, with high temperatures possibly climbing into the mid to upper 90s. The highest temperatures are expected over the central and western portions of the area where less rainfall and cloud cover are expected. Heat indices in the low 100s are expected Sunday afternoon and could approach 108 in a few spots.
An upper trough moves through the area tonight with a cold front. Gusty NW winds are expected on Sunday behind the cold front. It will also be cooler with highs mostly in the 70s.
Decreasing clouds are anticipated with lows will fall into the low to mid 70s. An upper level trough axis west of the region will ease into the forecast area on Saturday. Upper ridging continues to slide over the state from the east through the short term with ample moisture remaining in place. The ridging will lead to very warm temperatures on Sunday, with high temperatures possibly climbing into the mid to upper 90s. The highest temperatures are expected over the central and western portions of the area where less rainfall and cloud cover are expected. Heat indices in the low 100s are expected Sunday afternoon and could approach 108 in a few spots.
Saturday during the day should be dry and hot with highs climbing into the lower 90s. Dewpoints, which are already in the lower to mid 70s today, reach the mid to upper 70s Saturday. And again, northeast NE will be in a marginal risk for a severe storm or two as a cold front pushes into the region.
Latest analysis shows a pronounced upper ridge centered over the Southern Plains. As boundary layer moisture increases in advance of a warm frontal boundary, isolated thunder may re-develop across the western half of the KILX CWA this afternoon: however, most locations will remain dry. Lows will range from the middle 60s near the Indiana border to the lower 70s in the Illinois River Valley.
1259 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020 At midnight CDT a cold front was progressing through east central North Dakota, currently extending from near Devils lake southwest to near Linton ND. Dewpoints are already falling into the mid 40s across western ND, and to the east dewpoints are in the lower 70s at places like Linton and Jamestown. The low dewpoints to the west do point to pretty low afternoon RH values across the west.
742 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 A weak frontal boundary will linger well inland today as a weak trough continues near the coast. The front will push offshore on Sunday with high pressure building in from the north. Lows expected in the low to mid 70s.
Live rain gages are reporting the highest rain totals over Itasca, Carlton, St. Even though high pressure will cover the region today, upper level pieces of energy will scoot through the area with a few showers or thunderstorms. A more pronounced upper level short wave trof is progged to move into western Minnesota late tonight. SREF and GEFS ensembles place the highest QPF over the southern edge of the forecast area. The aforementioned trof moves across the region Sunday, with a trailing cold front. The cold front moves through the forecast area Sunday night with additional showers and storms.
An upper level trough will move across southern Alberta today. A few light showers are also possible in the Glacier Park region this afternoon given shallow instability and synoptic forcing associated with the aforementioned upper level trough. High temperatures will remain on the cooler side today, especially across northwest Montana, where thicker cloud cover will present.