Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure will bring fair weather conditions through the week. High pressure persists in the Pacific NW, bringing an omega blocking pattern that will become more defined later in the week. The persistent high, centered offshore, will characterize a more positive and stable air profile as subsidence compresses down to the lower boundary. Otherwise, mostly fair weather will last through the end of the week as the blocking pattern tightens and lows develop to the east and west, similar fashion to the Greek letter omega. Ensemble guidance hints at the possibility of precipitation over the weekend, which coincides with downstream ridging over the great basin.
Meanwhile cold temperatures continue to push into the area behind a back door cold front. High pressure will at least bring dry conditions tonight, and mainly clear skies.
then a cold front will drop south through the state tonight into Tue morning. A trailing cold front will dive south towards AR by tonight.
Winds are out of the southwest, advecting some slightly warmer air into the region.
426 AM CST Mon Jan 24 2022 (Today) Abundant sunshine and southwesterly/westerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front will help boost daytime temps to well above normal for all areas. Expect highs generally in the lower to mid 60s. The cold front should sneak into parts of northeast OK late in the day. The upper low currently moving into far west TX will track east today, with any precipitation remaining south of the area.
An upper-level trough approaching from the northwest tonight will result in a slight increase in northwest winds aloft but surface winds are forecast to remain light. A weak back door cold front will move into eastern NM today with gusty northeast winds. A much stronger cold front will surge into eastern NM Tuesday as the next storm system approaches from the north.
and Tuesday A clipper low pressure system was situated near the MN/IA border, and moving southeast early this morning.
SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): Coastal trough situates itself over the Gulf Waters allowing drizzle/light rain to develop on the western side of it and cover the entire CWA through the morning hours. As for tonight, a mid- level trough moves through Deep South Texas and ushers out the rain from west to east. Lows tonight dip into the 40s as the clouds also dissipate west to east as the trough moves east out of the area.
Highs will reach the low to mid 40s south of Highway 2, upper 40s south of I80. A deep closed upper low will be centered over Hudson Bay Canada, with a large upper trough extending over the Northern and Central Plains, Great Lakes and Midwest.
905 AM EST Mon Jan 24 2022 Weak high pressure will move offshore today leading to a moderating trend in temperatures. This moderating trend will continue Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. This cold front will move through the area late Tuesday. Cold high pressure will slowly build into the area through mid-week.
927 AM EST Mon Jan 24 2022 A cold front will push south of the area this morning. Arctic high pressure will settle overhead for the middle portion of the week. High pressure will settle over the Carolinas into the western Atlantic while a cold front approaches from the northwest. Despite the warmer thermal profiles, there should be enough moisture combined with an upslope flow to bring accumulating snow to locations along/west of the Allegheny Front. Arctic high pressure settles overhead Thu morning.
Tier (Chautauqua Ridge) and east of Lake Ontario across the Tug Hill where isolated spots could see up to 4 inches total.
306 AM MST Mon Jan 24 2022 The forecast focus is on the back-door cold front that pushes across the area Monday night and the cold temperatures and snowfall that will follow it Monday night through Tuesday as a series of short wave troughs embedded in the northwest flow aloft move across the central high plains region. High pressure aloft is maintained off the west coast of northern California with northwest flow directing a series of progressive open troughs across the Intermountain and Rocky Mountain regions that subsequently move across the Plains states through the middle of this week.
/issued 426 AM CST Mon Jan 24 2022/ SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): Coastal trough situates itself over the Gulf Waters allowing drizzle/light rain to develop on the western side of it and cover the entire CWA through the morning hours. As for tonight, a mid- level trough moves through Deep South Texas and ushers out the rain from west to east. Lows tonight dip into the 40s as the clouds also dissipate west to east as the trough moves east out of the area.
Upper level trough remains over the eastern U. However, increasing clouds are expected by afternoon ahead of next clipper tracking across the lower Grt Lks. Latest HREF mean qpf, combined with WPC mean snow/water ratios near 13/1, support snow totals of 3-4 inches over the higher terrain of Cambria/Somerset counties, with 1-2 inches over the northern mountains. Downsloping flow further east should result in much lower accums east of the Alleghenies, with perhaps no snow over the Lower Susq Valley. Light, lake-enhanced, orographic snow showers are likely to linger into Tuesday morning across the Alleghenies, as cold northwest flow pours across the Grt Lks behind trailing cold front. In contrast to recent days, temps on Tuesday will be near seasonable, ranging from the mid 20s over the northwest mountains, to the upper 30s in the Lower Susq Valley.
02Z water vapor imagery shows a broad upper low over the Hudson Bay with cyclonic flow across the northern and eastern parts of North America. There are some more subtle waves within the upper trough over the Dakotas and central Canada. At the surface, low pressure was observed along the MN/IA boarder with a trailing cold front extending into northeast MT. Models are in good agreement with the overall pattern and bring the cold front into the forecast area by the early afternoon with increasing cold air advection. A relatively warm start to the day thanks to the cloud cover should still allow for daytime highs to make it into the lower 50s for most areas.
06z data has the clipper low west of KMSP with the warm front running south through central Iowa.
844 AM EST Mon Jan 24 2022 Crossing low pressure will bring 1 to 3 inches of snow mid afternoon and through the evening. Locally higher amounts will be possible north of Interstate 80 and in the ridges. Generally, 1-3 inches of snow is expected for most, with 2-4 inches expected near I 80 and in the ridges east of Pittsburgh.
A trough works its way out of Idaho this evening providing isolated snow showers across northeast Nevada through early Tuesday morning. A cold front moves through this evening dropping lows into the teens to low 20s, with some valleys dipping into the single digits. In result of the frontal passage, Tuesday's highs will be cooler, ranging in the 30s and 40s.
Clear skies persist as the region remains downstream of strong mid/upper ridging off the West Coast. Dry and mild weather will continue this week as the ridge remains to our west resulting in northerly flow aloft. The surface gradient won't be as strong as this past weekend's system, but we're still likely to see 20-30 mph gusts in the Sacramento Valley with 30-50 mph gusts over the higher elevations and ridges in the northern Sierra.
348 AM CST Mon Jan 24 2022 06z data has the clipper low west of KMSP with the warm front running south through central Iowa.
There have been observation sites across the Nature Coast that dipped into the lower 20s, upper 20s around Tampa Bay, and low 30s in SWFL. Regardless, this hasn't really changed the impacts, with freezing temperatures and areas of frost expected and forecasted. VFR conditions with relatively light winds are expected for today with cool and dry high pressure still in place. Marine conditions remain benign for today with high pressure in control. Temperatures are currently below freezing in the entire warning area. An extensive U/L trough over eastern North America will persist through much of the week.
A cold front will move into Central Montana from the northeast today with light snow expected from early this afternoon through Tuesday morning. A cold high pressure system over Saskatchewan and Montana will push a "backdoor" cold front into central and eastern portions of the NWS Great Falls forecast area today and tonight. The effects of this weather system will be short-lived as the high pressure system moves into the Northern Great Plains on Tuesday. Behind these system, a low pressure trough develops along the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains for a return to gusty westerly winds with temperatures gradually rebounding back above seasonal averages through the remainder of the week. Mostly dry conditions are also expected due to high pressure aloft shunting Pacific moisture northward into Canada.
322 AM MST Mon Jan 24 2022 A backdoor cold front will continue making progress across the region from NE to SW today with light snow bringing up to an inch of new accumulations.
High pressure will at least bring dry conditions tonight, and mainly clear skies.
A ridge of high pressure remains overhead. East of the Cascades, expect temperatures in the low 50s. The ridge will weaken slightly as a weak disturbance moves to our north on Tuesday. However, the ridge axis will slowly propagate eastward through the week, continuing the dry and mild pattern through most of the rest of the week.
A trailing cold front will dive south towards AR by tonight.
Tier (Chautauqua Ridge) and east of Lake Ontario across the Tug Hill where isolated spots could see up to 4 inches total by Tuesday.
352 AM MST Mon Jan 24 2022 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southwest MN, with arctic front from southeast SD to southwestern ND. Upper level analysis continues to show low over the Hudson Bay region, with large scale trough covering the central and eastern US. Ridging is centered off the west coast, with fast northwest flow across the northern Rockies and northern Plains. Colder air will be relatively short-lived as the boundary settles just west of the area Tuesday and then moves east as a warm front Tuesday night.
1038 AM MST Mon Jan 24 2022 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southwest MN, with arctic front from southeast SD to southwestern ND. Upper level analysis continues to show low over the Hudson Bay region, with large scale trough covering the central and eastern US. Ridging is centered off the west coast, with fast northwest flow across the northern Rockies and northern Plains. Colder air will be relatively short-lived as the boundary settles just west of the area Tuesday and then moves east as a warm front Tuesday night.
The coldest temperatures overnight are expected over the Big Country in the lower 30s, with some low lying areas and river valleys possibly seeing slightly lower temperatures.
We're enjoying much warmer temperatures today as low level flow has already transitioned to southwesterly across much of Central Alabama.
215 PM EST Mon Jan 24 2022 High pressure will move offshore tonight.
242 PM EST Mon Jan 24 2022 High pressure will move offshore tonight.
345 PM EST Mon Jan 24 2022 Dry high pressure will persist through tonight.
(18Z TAFS) VFR conditions to prevail today in wake of an exiting shrtwv trof with sw-nw surface winds mostly around 10kts, higher at PEQ/FST. (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Skies have cleared in wake of a parting shrtwv trof with the assocd weak cold front to the n of LBB. 85h temps will be only a little cooler Tue PM. Of more concern is the next cold front that will make a hard push into the CWFA early Wed AM.
On the heels of the aforementioned south stream system a short wave trough will move through the Great Lakes region sending a cold front through the FA tomorrow.
A weak back door cold front will move into eastern NM today with gusty northeast winds. A much stronger cold front will surge into eastern NM Tuesday as the next storm system approaches from the north.
With WAA in place, temps will be warmer today in the upper 40s and lower 50s. McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 36 51 25 41 24 / 0 10 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 35 46 22 37 21 / 10 10 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 34 45 21 37 20 / 10 10 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 32 43 20 34 17 / 10 20 10 0 0.
157 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022 The strong arctic cold front is nearing a KFAM>>KSLO line early this afternoon. Percentiles of 850-hPa temperature are closer to the 20th percentile with this airmass, though the surface anticyclone is near the 98th percentile. Another difference (at least in northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois) will be the less of a snow cover which should help keep temperatures a bit warmer than they otherwise would be.
126 PM MST Mon Jan 24 2022 Short term focus remains on the approaching trough/front combo sliding south-southeast across the Intermountain West. Areas of SW WY from Cokeville to Rock Springs could see an inch or two through tomorrow morning, as they are closer to the midlevel energy from the trough sweeping across ID/UT. Cold pool and northernly CAA will keep temperatures down from today's highs, with most areas likely remaining below freezing through the day. Cold air aloft will mean a break of inversions for the day, with warmest temperatures at the lower elevations.
Temperatures will be warmer today and highs expected in the 60s. Winds are out of the southwest, advecting some slightly warmer air into the region.
This afternoon, low pressure across Lower Michigan had a cold front stretching southwest of the low into central Illinois. The freezing drizzle that was present earlier had ended. The cold front will sweep through the forecast area during the remainder of the afternoon. High pressure building in Tuesday night along with subsidence should keep skies mostly clear for the much of the area. The high will bring in even colder air, so that air temperatures will dip below zero in the northwest forecast area, even with limited snowcover. The center of the high will remain to the northwest, so winds will remain up.
301 PM EST Mon Jan 24 2022 Main weather feature through Tuesday is a cold front that will bring chances for light rain this afternoon through tonight for south- central IN and central KY. Based on surface observations around the region, south to southwest surface winds across IN/KY out ahead of an approaching cold front with surface temperatures ranging from 48 at Louisville to 42 at Huntingburg as of the early afternoon. High resolution model placement of the lower level jet and associated vorticity along the cold frontal advancement will provide the necessary lift for the rain this afternoon and evening, but the main question will be the amount of mosture available in the atmospheric column.
In the short term, our quiet weather will continue although temperatures will begin to slide down hill as a cold front approaches the region this evening. The front should be through the forecast area by late tonight which will allow cooler air to move into the forecast area. Despite this cold front, overnight temperatures will be very similar to last night with temperatures mainly in the 20s. Winds will remain easterly across the forecast area during the day on Tuesday so this moist upslope flow will keep temperatures much cooler than the past several days in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Upper level trough remains over the eastern U. Another widespread sub-advisory snowfall will be seen for most, with orographic lift pushing the higher terrain of the Laurels into Advisory criteria. Latest expected mean qpf, combined with WPC mean snow/water ratios near 13/1, support snow totals of 3-4 inches over the higher terrain of Cambria/Somerset counties, with 1-2 inches over the northern and central mountains.
(The rest of today ) Plentiful sunshine and westerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front will allow for temperatures to climb well above normal by this afternoon. Generally highs are expected to be in the low to mid 60s across the area. The cold front will enter northeast Oklahoma this afternoon and push southeastward across the area into tonight. An upper low currently situated across Central Texas will track east throughout the day, and any precipitation associated with the system is expected to stay south of the area.
At the surface, easterly upslope flow tonight will turn back northerly early in the morning as a cold front moves through the area. Despite this mid tropospheric ascent, the action is in the lower levels in vicinity of frontogenesis associated with the cold front. Favored dendritic growth zone of -12 to -18C a little higher in the atmosphere and not quite lining up with best upward motion and RH, and only descends later in the day behind the cold front.
At the surface, an area of low pressure has developed off the coast of southern Texas and will move east across the Central Gulf through Tuesday. This position of the low also places the forecast area within the cold sector, allowing for a cold rain overnight with temperatures ranging from the lower 40s inland to the mid 40s along the immediate coast. The better instability will be closer to the low pressure, so any thunder that develops will likely remain over the open Gulf waters and south of the marine zones. A reinforcing cold front is then expected to move through the forecast area Tuesday night as a high pressure pushes south, bringing colder and drier air into the region.
Tuesday morning will have a mix of low cloud cover and fog in most places, before partly sunny skies for the afternoon with the arrival of a weak high pressure ridge.
119 PM MST Mon Jan 24 2022 Water vapor shows long wave trof covering much of the CONUS with short wave diving southeast through the Northern Rockies. However, warm front will quickly lift back through our region Tuesday night ahead of next approaching clipper.
Northern TAF sites along the Highway 82 corridor will generally remain dry though some light rain could be possible overnight. Temperatures will be warmer today and highs expected in the 60s. Winds are out of the southwest, advecting some slightly warmer air into the region.
The ridges will see overall mild conditions under mostly clear skies with moderate RH recoveries. Winds may be a bit gusty over the ridges tonight, but nothing strong.
As shwrs come to an end across our wrn areas of E TX early Tuesday morning, fog will be possible as the low levels remain near saturation.
1241 PM PST Mon Jan 24 2022 Low pressure passing through eastern Nevada will increase winds from the northeast and east Tuesday.
With the forecast area sitting under the right entrance region and a cold front that's progged to move through overnight, chances for PoP increase through the first part of the short term period. With the lower levels being mostly dry, some evaporation of precipitation will likely occur until the lower- levels become saturated.
1119 AM CST Mon Jan 24 2022 (The rest of today ) Plentiful sunshine and westerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front will allow for temperatures to climb well above normal by this afternoon. Generally highs are expected to be in the low to mid 60s across the area. The cold front will enter northeast Oklahoma this afternoon and push southeastward across the area into tonight. An upper low currently situated across Central Texas will track east throughout the day, and any precipitation associated with the system is expected to stay south of the area.
- Another Clipper today with lake enhanced snow showers The northwesterly flow will allow for lake enhanced snow this morning with the highest snowfall along the lakeshore with 4 to 6 inches possible, especially in our northwest counties. As the mid to upper level trough deepens and elongates over the area, downsloping flow with dry arctic air will settle over central lower Michigan and the 127 corridor.
A cold front will be sweeping across the state during the forecast period. A trailing cold front will dive south towards AR by tonight.
Temperatures will be steady or fall today across the area as the backdoor cold front moves through. 97 A backdoor cold front will continue making progress across the region from NE to SW today with light snow bringing up to an inch of new accumulations.
A short wave trough in southern British Columbia will reach the West Central Mountains by late this afternoon for scattered snow showers. Surface winds: less than 10 kt, then W-NW 5-15 kt Monday evening with cold front. Upper trough will move southward through Idaho late today and tonight, bringing scattered snow showers to central and south-central Idaho along with increased winds. However, this will be temporary as the persistent high pressure ridge off the west coast rebuilds inland allowing the inversion to strengthen through the end of the week.
1215 PM EST Mon Jan 24 2022 High pressure will move offshore tonight.
1238 PM EST Mon Jan 24 2022 The low pressure system moving across the region today will shift east bringing snow temporarily to an end.
1236 PM EST Mon Jan 24 2022 Crossing low pressure will bring 1 to 3 inches of snow mid afternoon and through the evening. Locally higher amounts will be possible north of Interstate 80 and in the ridges. Generally, 1-3 inches of snow is expected for most, with 2-4 inches expected near I 80 and in the ridges east of Pittsburgh.
1208 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022 (Today and tonight) An upper level low is currently working its way east out of far west Texas and southern New Mexico. With increasing synoptic ascent over the area ahead of this low, isolated light showers have formed mainly in the Northern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and Concho Valley early this morning. With progressive upper level flow, this low, which is expected to open into more of a wave today, will continue to be pushed to the east very quickly, passing over West Central Texas later this morning. With downsloping winds out of the west and clearing skies, high temperatures today will be warmer than the past few days in the mid 60s. Low temperatures tonight will be on the cooler side hovering right around freezing in many locations.
With the forecast area sitting under the right entrance region and a cold front that's progged to move through overnight, chances for PoP increase through the first part of the short term period. With the lower levels being mostly dry, some evaporation of precipitation will likely occur until the lower- levels become saturated. While the region stays in this longwave trough pattern, isolated upslope snow showers may be possible in far eastern Only on weather system of note to speak of in the extended.
The Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect to the I 80 corridor and ridges.
151 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022 This afternoon, a cold front extends from northern IN southwest through MO. This cold front will move across the area tonight.
With WAA in place, temps will be warmer today in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Cigs may drop into MVFR late in the TAF period at TRI as a cold front approaches, possibly at TYS as well but confidence is lower there. DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 36 51 25 41 / 0 0 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 50 35 46 22 37 / 0 10 10 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 50 34 45 21 37 / 0 10 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 32 43 20 34 / 0 10 20 10 0.
For tonight, the clouds will gradually dissipate across much of the area, except across the far north where clouds will linger due to cold northwest flow off the warmer waters of Lake Superior.
241 PM EST Mon Jan 24 2022 The low pressure system moving across the region today will shift east bringing snow temporarily to an end.
Light rain and drizzle will persist through the rest of the afternoon and into this evening as a coastal trough remains parked along the lower Texas coast and modest overrunning continues over the region. Temperatures overnight tonight will drop into the low-mid 40s in most locations; temperatures closer to 50 degrees are expected near the coast. Light northerly winds in the morning will gradually turn northeast, then east-northeast by the late afternoon hours as another cold front works its way south through the heart of the state. Afternoon high temperatures on Tuesday will rise to near seasonal averages, generally in the low-mid 70s.