Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN ENOUGH AREAS TO CONTINUE THE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY ON THU. THE WIND WITH THE COLD FRONT ON THU HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL.
TONIGHT: TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING AS RIDGE MOVES QUICKLY EAST. WED: RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ANTICIPATED ON WED AS WEAK RIDGE MOVES THROUGH AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS WED NIGHT. BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF IT GOES A FEW/SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. PATTERN ISN'T EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST AND NW FLOW ALOFT REMAINING OVER THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH GFDI VALUES WILL BE IN THE HIGH END OF HIGH CATEGORY.
230 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016 High pressure at the surface has pushed across the forecast area and where the sky has cleared out over the western portion of the forecasts area, we have seen some light fog develop. Upper ridge will edge closer to the forecast area tonight and will start to see fairly strong low level warm advection set up. Upper ridge moves overhead, with very strong low level south to southwest winds setting up over the area during the day.
222 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016 An upper level ridge across the southwest states will move east toward the forecast area today and tonight. This will result in rising heights with temperatures rising to much above normal values this afternoon under mostly sunny skies as a weak lee trough and low level thermal ridge develop along the west Texas/eastern New Mexico border. The upper ridge is forecast to push east of the area by early Thursday and be replaced by west to southwest flow aloft.
221 AM EST WED FEB 17 2016 A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
350 AM EST WED FEB 17 2016 MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LOWS RANGING BETWEEN THE LOW TEENS AND LOW 20S.
A DRY SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE GA EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS THURSDAY.
AND IF SURFACE TEMPS ARE BELOW FREEZING. IT COULD BE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION AT 20Z WITH ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE EXTENT AND DURATION OF THE CLOUD FIELD ALONG WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE REMAINING SNOW FIELD WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION. STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
KEPT THE FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION GOING IN THE FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EAST.
329 AM EST WED FEB 17 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
221 AM EST WED FEB 17 2016 ALOFT - A RIDGE REACHED FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO TO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE A TROUGH SPRAWLED FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CONTAINED AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES. SURFACE - HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER RIDGED TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SPILLED OVER INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NC/SC LINE TRAILED A WEAK AND DRY FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND GULF COASTAL STATES. THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST. IN RESPONSE THE EASTERN TROUGH SHIFTS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD.
A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US ON WEDNESDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND OFF THE COAST FOR THURSDAY WHILE A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US BUILDS EAST. HIGHS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE COAST AND SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY.
254 AM EST WED FEB 17 2016 AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA TODAY.
SYM EVEN REPORTING FZFG AS TEMPS ARE ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. EITHER WAY DID HEDGE COOLER IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. WHILE SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THINK WE WILL SEE TEMPS SOAR INTO THE LOWER 50S IN THE SW TO MID 40S IN THE NE. THAT SAID AREAS THAT SEE FOG TONIGHT MAY EVENTUALLY SEE SOME FREEZING FOG AS TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING.
58/ROSE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
1119 PM EST TUE FEB 16 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC TO APPROACH THE REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY FOR AN INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION.
1119 PM CST TUE FEB 16 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SHIFT MORE EASTERLY BY EVENING AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER TENNESSEE AND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE EAST AS MODELS MOVE AN UPPER TROUGH EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY.
1124 PM CST TUE FEB 16 2016 A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO AND OFF THE COAST THROUGH 07Z. BEHIND THE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF KLBX AND KSGR. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS FORECAST AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR FOG THROUGH 07Z. THE THREAT FOR DENSE FOG SHOULD END WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 3-4 AM. A WEAK PRE FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF SE TX WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ABOUT KSHV TO SOUTH OF KACT TO KJCT. SFC DEW PTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S AT KPSX AND THE SREF/HRRR FAVORS THE MATAGORDA BAY REGION FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE WEAK TROUGH.
317 AM EST WED FEB 17 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL PA TODAY. FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY.
1234 AM EST WED FEB 17 2016 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U. WITH A TROUGH IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WED MORNING WITH THE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES 00Z THU. WITH A TROUGH STRETCHING INTO E MT AND SD.
1100 PM CST TUE FEB 16 2016 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 831 PM CST TUE FEB 16 2016/ UPPER TROF AXIS IS NOW MOVING INTO NERN GA WITH LOCAL RADARS SHOWING THE -RA HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TN VALLEY. UPPER TROF AXIS NOW IS LOCATED OVER THE CAROLINAS WHICH PUTS THE TN VALLEY IN NW UPPER FLOW.
1236 AM EST WED FEB 17 2016 ON THE HEELS OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 70S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 80S WEST. THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF LESS THAN 35 PERCENT WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. WE WILL BE ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A JACKSBORO TO EASTLAND LINE DUE TO THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS.
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED. WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE AND LOWER LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SD. TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE BREEZY SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
AS WAVE TRACKS PAST AND THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS EAST. AS MOISTURE PROFILES SHALLOW OUT BEHIND WAVE LATER TONIGHT AND GET A THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING. COULD SEE AT LEAST A WEAK REPEAT OF THE OTHER DAY WHEN THE FOG WORKED TOWARD ADVECTING UP ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE AND LASTING WELL INTO THE DAY. SOME ROOM FOR TEMPS TO FALL THIS EVENING WITH SOME BREAKING OF THE LOWER CEILINGS. BUT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LAYERS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT AS FLOW WORKS AROUND TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. WHERE GREATEST CHANCE TO BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS AND EXPERIENCE SOME OF THE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. WITH THE WARMING OF COURSE WILL COME MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY.
400 AM EST WED FEB 17 2016 LONG WAVE TROUGH ENCOMPASSES THE EASTERN CONUS THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BELOW FREEZING WHERE THERE ARE THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS. SFC PRESSURE RISE SLIGHTLY TODAY BUT OTHERWISE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THEIR DEPTH WILL BE SHALLOW AND ABOVE FREEZING. COLD FRONT AND FINAL VORT MAX IN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SUSTAINED AT AROUND 15 TO 18 KTS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A PRESSURE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING EXISTS TO OUR WEST AND THIS WILL PROVIDE NWRLY FLOW ALOFT MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER. LEE TROUGH RAPIDLY SETS UP TOMORROW TO OUR WEST ALLOWING BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH SPEEDS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN. A MINOR TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY BRINGING BACK SOLIDLY WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. WITH THIS TROUGH. HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN WITH A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E VALUES ON THURSDAY MORNING.
Most locations should see the rain/snow mix, but still minimal impacts are expected with temps at or above freezing. Clipper low digging well into the Mississippi Valley is on an otherwise favorable track for snow, but boundary-layer temps remain just enough above freezing to create a lot of precip-type issues. That said, we are seeing mostly a rain/snow mix over the Lower Ohio Valley so far, with just very slight slushy accumulations on elevated surfaces. Still a very marginal situation with temps at or just above freezing, so expect a half inch or less in most locations. If return flow reaches the surface before daybreak Thursday, temps might start to rise and bust the min temp forecast, but not going to jump on that given the model trends of moving ridges east too quickly.
1230 AM EST WED FEB 17 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY. A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PREVAIL EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND WILL AID IN ALLOWING A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
450 AM EST WED FEB 17 2016 A SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SFC TROF AKA DWPT FRONT IS CURRENTLY BISECTING CWA AS OF 07Z. H5 TROF SCOOTING ACRS ONTARIO WL BRING INCREASING CLDS OVR NW ZONES TONIGHT AS WELL AS A CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN UPSLOPE AREAS.
Aside from a few passing high clouds skies should remain mostly clear overnight allowing temps to drop near or a little below freezing in most areas. /ISSUED 233 PM CST TUE FEB 16 2016/ The persistent and quite amplified positive PNA pattern of the past 7 to 10 days (western CONUS ridge/eastern CONUS trough) will break down temporarily over the coming week. South winds return on Wednesday as the ridge slides east. and a strengthening lee trough over the Plains. The pressure gradient really tightens up across OK/AR through the day as our area gets sandwiched between the lee trough and eastern CONUS ridge.
A LOW PRESSURE (1007 MB) SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ALBEIT ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TO OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES SLOWLY LIFTING OUT AND WEAKENING ON THE SOUTHERN TAIL. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ADJACENT TO THE UPPER KEYS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF TODAY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 88 67 83 64 / 0 10 20 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 86 65 80 60 / 10 10 20 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 86 65 79 59 / 10 10 20 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 83 61 78 58 / 10 10 20 20.
THE THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST BUT MAY HAVE MOVED SLIGHTLY INLAND.
A VERY WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING MILD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE FAR LEADING EDGE OF THE WARM FRONT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY BRUSH THE FAR NORTH COASTAL ZONES WITH SOME SPRINKLES TODAY INTO SUNDAY. THEN THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD TO THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PRETTY SUNNY UNDER A FLAT UPPER RIDGE. THERE ARE SOME WEAK ECHOES OFF THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST FROM THE FAR SOUTHERN END OF THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STARTS TO MOVE ONSHORE. THE COLD FRONT THEN SWINGS THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
A surface cold front will sweep quickly eastward across the forecast area this morning. The high will produce a light northeast wind flow of cooler and drier air.
840 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015 RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AND ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY.
716 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015 SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY FROM CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN INTO QUEBEC. WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. 925MB THERMAL TROF SITUATED THROUGH CWA BY DAYBREAK SUN. AROUND 10C COOLER/24 HOURS IN SERN CWA. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES TO DISCUSS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROUGH IS STILL POISED TO DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
/ISSUED 303 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015/ CURRENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S. A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. BUT WE SHOULD SEE ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEFORE A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN TONIGHT. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES.
714 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015 /12Z TAFS/ DIFFUSE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR FT SMITH TO SHERMAN TO ABILENE AT 12Z. /ISSUED 240 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015/ THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM FORT SMITH TO SOUTH OF LUBBOCK AT 07Z/2AM AND MOVING SOUTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH.
626 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015 3 am surface map showing cold front was roughly just west of I-57. The cold air advection will keep afternoon highs confined to the lower 70s in most areas. High temperatures will be in the 70s while the high is more directly overhead, then reach more into the lower 80s with more of a southeast flow once the ridge axis establishes itself.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND WESTERN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN ENDING. COOLER AND DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. COLD FRONT AT 14Z EXTENDED FROM NEAR KMIE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE SE INDY METRO TO NEAR KBMG AND BEDFORD. HEAVIER RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER NOW FOCUSED OVER NORTHEAST COUNTIES IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE TAIL OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. COLD FRONT IS MOVING QUICKLY EAST AND EXPECT IT TO BE COMPLETELY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12 PM. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO MOST AREAS AS LOW LEVEL THERMALS ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
1129 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015 RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY.
1002 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015 ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WRAP INTO COASTAL NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS MORNING AROUND LOW PRESSURE THAT IS WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER NORTHEAST.
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO STALL AND BECOME LESS DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON. AJS /ISSUED 714 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015/ /12Z TAFS/ DIFFUSE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR FT SMITH TO SHERMAN TO ABILENE AT 12Z. /ISSUED 240 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015/ THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM FORT SMITH TO SOUTH OF LUBBOCK AT 07Z/2AM AND MOVING SOUTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH.
AS IS THE NORM EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL BY MID-MORNING THEN REMAIN THAT WAY THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN ON THE HEELS OF HIGH PRESSURE. /ISSUED 320 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015/ ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATES RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTH TEXAS THAT IS CURRENTLY THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR REGION. A COLD FRONT WAS NOTED UP IN THE ARKANSAS SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH TEXAS.
RIDGING FROM TX TO TN VALLEY WILL KEEP THE FRONT FROM PUSHING SOUTH FASTER. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION FROM SW TO W TO A MORE WNW TO NW WIND DIRECTION.
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RESIDING OVER TEXAS. A FEW SHOWERS LINGER ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST BUT REMAIN FAR REMOVED FROM THE 3 TERMINALS SITES. 500 MB RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED OVER TEXAS WITH A VERY DRY 700-300MB LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. MEAN RH WITHIN THIS LAYER IS BELOW 10 PERCENT WITH THE LOWER 10K FEET STILL EXHIBITING THE TYPICAL RH LEVELS OF 50 TO 80 PERCENT. TIME HEIGHT FORECAST INDICATE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH LEVELS IN THE LOWER LAYER OVER THE MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY. IF THE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR MIXES THROUGH THE LOWER LAYER QUICKER THAN EXPECTED CONVECTION WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP AND THE SLIGHT CHANCES WILL EVAPORATE QUICKLY.
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER REGION TODAY. THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER THRESHOLD OF ACTION STAGE EARLY SUNDAY.
1215 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL BE WARMER THAN NW PORTIONS OF THE FA. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY BUT COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY.
1031 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015 The cold front has moved into north Texas this morning. The cold front was located from Pittsburg county in Southeast Oklahoma to Franklin county in Northwest Arkansas. The cold front will continue to make its way through the region this morning with the greater thunderstorm chances shifting into far Southeast Oklahoma this afternoon. Behind the cold front. much cooler air combined with northerly winds will aid in afternoon temps staying in the 70s to lower 80s from north to south.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES INCREASE UNDER THE RIDGE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 4-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. 19 AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS DOWN THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO ALABAMA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
1106 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015 COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE LATE WEEK. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE A MUCH STRONGER FEATURE FURTHER TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST WHERE THE LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE MUCH MORE PROMINENT. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S.
1019 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015 LOOKS LIKE A QUIET AND WARM DAY TODAY ACROS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST. AS ALSO SUGGESTED BY UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD.
653 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015 A cold front will continue to push southeast through the forecast area early this morning, clearing the southern reaches of the CWA by mid morning. That cold front is ushering in a much cooler and less humid airmass into the region. Even with clearing skies today, temperatures look to only warm into the low to mid 70s. 15 With Canadian high pressure moving east across the lower Great Lakes tonight, temperatures shouldn't have any trouble falling into the low 50s for most. An amplifying upper level pattern will keep surface ridging entrenched across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley for much of the coming week, with cool and dry easterly to southeasterly surface flow expected through the week.
1237 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015 COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL IN WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. 925MB THERMAL TROF SITUATED THROUGH CWA BY DAYBREAK SUN. AROUND 10C COOLER/24 HOURS IN SERN CWA. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES TO DISCUSS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROUGH IS STILL POISED TO DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES. VFR/DRY OTHERWISE WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT-SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
932 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015 CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE AVA REGION OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD SRN WI FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING. BREEZY WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. HIGH PRESSURE AND CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
1049 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015 COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG A LINE FROM LITTLE ROCK TO DE QUEEN TO MOUNT PLEASANT. SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S IN HUGO TO THE MID 80S IN TEXARKANA. THE COOLER TEMPS ATTRIBUTED TO RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION.
HUSTON TODAY INTO SUNDAY A SHALLOW RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN SUNDAY.
909 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO LATE TODAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NY AND PA.
1043 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015 High pressure out in the plains will keep northerly winds over the area this afternoon. This CAA combined with the partly to mostly cloudy skies will bring cooler air into the region. Current forecast of afternoon highs in the lower 70s looks very reasonable. 3 am surface map showing cold front was roughly just west of I-57. The cold air advection will keep afternoon highs confined to the lower 70s in most areas. High temperatures will be in the 70s while the high is more directly overhead, then reach more into the lower 80s with more of a southeast flow once the ridge axis establishes itself.
AS THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER WEST TX COMES INTO PLAY. MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM THE MID 70S NORTHWARD TO THE LOW 80S SOUTHWARD. THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OK.
732 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY BEFORE MOVING INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND WESTERN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT. WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH GLIDES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AREA CLOSER TO CYCLONIC UPPER JET AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. 00Z MOS HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S LOOK GOOD CONSIDERING CLEARING SKIES BUT NORTHERLY FLOW.