Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
428 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016 Another weak front washes out across the area today, followed by weak high pressure tonight.
Low to mid level moisture will increase across the coastal sections of the CWA today through Monday as a weak 500mb trough across the western Gulf of Mexico this morning moves westward across northeast Mexico and deep south Texas today into tonight. This will provide a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the coastal waters and the lower TX coast this afternoon through Monday as low to mid level moisture across the northern Gulf of Mexico moves westward along the southern periphery of the 500mb ridge across the south-central and southeast United States.
455 AM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016 The trough of low pressure deepening over the west coast has forced high pressure to recenter over southeast New Mexico during the night.
In general, expected diurnally and orographically driven convection each afternoon this week over Mohave County, with perhaps an occasional intrusion into the higher terrain of San Bernardino, Clark, or Lincoln counties.
High pressure will be overhead by Sunday morning, allowing for mostly sunny skies. Monday's cold front will be the one real chance of a solid rainfall during the seven day forecast.
1114 PM PDT Sat Jul 16 2016 A slow moving upper low will bring a showery weather pattern to the Inland Northwest through Monday.
This is ahead of cold front that will be moving into the area later this afternoon. The Nam and experimental HRRR suggest that another wave could move off the high Plains overnight and bring in additional thunderstorms from the west.
338 AM EDT Sun Jul 17 2016 Abundant clouds and some scattered showers and thunderstorms across southern Vermont this morning will give way to clearing skies this afternoon as high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes builds into the North Country. Fair and dry weather continues into tonight, but will be short-lived as another cold front will move south from Canada Monday afternoon, accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be on the strong side.
Convective redevelopment ahead of the surface cold front across Wisconsin and southern MN is uncertain this afternoon.
420 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016 The last few hours an upper low has moved out of Gulf into Mexico just south of Brownsville with the upper shear axis nearing the Upper Texas coast as of 4 am. Temperatures today will probably be moderated by cloud cover and outflow so have pared back temps a degree or two - though this may feel a bit cooler it will likely still be above normal in the mid 90s with heat index readings in the 101 to 104 range. But by Monday night the anomalous upper ridging over OK/MO expands and will likely return to a subsidence dominated weather regime with temperatures creeping back up into the mid-upper 90s. Rain chances Tue-Fri look slim and mainly along and south of the Highway 59 corridor.
Resulting southerly flow will lock in low to mid 70s dewpoints as the 850mb thermal ridge builds over the Mid Mississippi Valley. Confidence is low at this time that there will be much penetration of thunderstorms into our area as operational guidance has heights rising and the aforementioned low level thermal ridge building overhead to provide a capping inversion. but didn't want to go higher due to the low confidence. Models develop another round of thunderstorms late this afternoon or this evening over southern Iowa or northern Missouri just south of the front on the nose of the low level jet. The cross- isothermal component of the low level jet isn't as strong, and MUCAPE according to the GFS drops off very quickly during the evening. Temperatures are expected to reach the lower to mid 90s as 850mb temperatures reach 20-22C.
433 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016 Latest surface analysis continue a broad ridge over northeast Gulf of Mexico and southeast CONUS, only a 2mb change from upper Texas coast to Florida panhandle. Winds were generally calm and surface air was near saturation with dewpoint in the lower 70s. The upper level weakness over the Lower Mississippi valley will continue to weaken and allow the ridge to merge from Georgia to New Mexico today.
453 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016 Another weak front washes out across the area today, followed by weak high pressure tonight.
339 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016 High pressure will continue offshore the southeast coast. High pressure aloft will begin to build eastward today. The atmos remains pretty moist and moderately unstable, even under the upper ridging.
706 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 Low pressure will slowly move north off the coast tonight through Tuesday and will dissipate over the Gulf of Maine Tuesday night.
The trough in the west will gradually move toward our area with mid- level flow gradually increase.
1259 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 High pressure will cross the region overnight.
The better showers and thunderstorms will be capable of brief heavy downpours due to the high PWAT values. There remains some concern for severe storms through this evening, but the low level wind field is weak and rather unorganized at this point.
1250 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 The low offshore will begin to lift northeast away from our region tomorrow.
1045 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2016 Cold front has stalled along the southeastern fringes of the forecast area from Hill City to Gove. the Tri State region will sit between a broad h5 ridge over the eastern portion of the country. with a digging slow moving upper trough building over the rockies/western half of the country.
Even with the light winds and high pressure dominating, dew point depressions should be such that any fog development will be very spotty, light and confined to areas closer to bodies of water. Good flying conditions next 24 hours as upper ridge dominates with only cirrus fibratus working in over the area from the west.
1040 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 High pressure will push slowly east across the region tonight and Tuesday. A warm front will develop and lift northward into the northern Great Lakes region. High pressure will remain over the region and settle over southeastern Ohio by daybreak Tuesday. With clear skies, temperatures will drop into the lower 50s area-wide.
An upper level ridge remains across the area extending from the Great Lakes south to the lower MS valley. High clouds continue to push in slowly from the west as the moisture encounters the ridge. Weak return flow trying to set up west of high pressure to our east. GFS and NAM diverge Tuesday night, with the GFS showing greater s/wv ridging in the wake of the aforementioned system.
BMickelson The main driver of the weather over northeast Montana tonight will continue to be the low pressure system centered over southern Saskatchewan. As this rotates around the retreating upper low.
Later tonight the low level south to southeast flow should moisten enough for an MVFR cloud layer most likely spreading into all sites, and perhaps even an LIFR cloud layer reaching KCDS towards daybreak Tuesday. Southwest flow aloft will remain perhaps slightly more backed as low pressure moves from central California into the southwest. This will come from a slow moving trough across the southwestern US this week.
945 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 High pressure will build across the region through tonight.
1031 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 Currently - A large upper level trough aligned over the Atlantic coast and down the Florida Peninsula has placed the Florida Keys in a broad cyclonic flow and lower heights aloft. Meanwhile, the trough aloft will edge a bit further east and northeastward, placing the Florida Keys increasingly on the descending branch of the trough. This along with the high cape, weak inhibition, and at least for a bit longer, ample deep layered moisture, justifies at least mid chance pops for the overnight period. Outside of rain cooled areas, overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 70s with dew points in the low to mid 70s.
Expect mild and dry conditions across the cwa tonight, thanks to a weak area of high pressure. Pleasantly warm, dry conditions are expected to continue through tonight as synoptic ridging on the eastern flank of an Omega block continues. In particular, afternoon cumulus clouds should dissipate with loss of daytime heating which with decoupling should yield overnight lows in the low to mid 50s. This will mean warm temperatures into the 80s while dewpoints in the low 50s will likely prevail.
1005 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 Low pressure off Virginia coast will continue moving northeastward. High pressure over the Carolinas will move off the southeast coast Tuesday afternoon.
/issued 248 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/ An upper level ridge will build over the Southeast United States over the next seven days while an upper trough digs into the Central Plains.
/issued 246 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): Tranquil forecast for the next 36 hours as H5 ridge dominates South Texas. Low pressure across the Permian Basin will interact with high pressure across the eastern U.
With high pressure in control. Period begins with upper ridge crossing in the wake of an upper level low pulling away from the New ENgland coast.
Near calm surface winds tonight across much of Central Alabama but not expected quite as cool temperatures tonight as last night as our main northerly flow is cut off as ridge weakens and moves eastward. With that said, we are cooling best and still a tad quicker in the north and east as expected with a retreating ridge.
847 PM MST MON MAY 23 2016 A large region of low pressure will continue over the Western States through the weekend. Southwesterly flow predominates ahead of a mid-level trough moving through central CA. While temperatures are slightly warmer than they were this time yesterday, they also remain below average due to the persistent longwave trough across the western CONUS. Southwesterly dry flow continues across the Desert Southwest with a large scale upper level trough entrenched across the Western United States.
High pressure building into Florida will produce a light onshore breeze, with seas 1-2FT near shore and 2-3FT well offshore. Weak high pressure filling in behind weakening frontal trough out over the Atlantic will provide a light onshore flow. A mid level impulse is indicted rotating through the trough along the east coast, so cannot discount these higher PoPs. Dry pattern continues as a weak upper level low begins to evolve and drop southeast toward the Bahamas. At the surface, high pressure ridge to the north will allow onshore flow to develop and slowly increase.
1142 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016 A trough noted on the 700/500mb heights combined with two MCV's moving across eastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma were working to produce slow moving showers and thunderstorms across areas just west of the Ozarks and extreme southeastern Kansas. Several short waves will move over the flattening ridge tonight and through Tuesday. The overall pattern will change little from Tuesday evening through the end of the work week as the Ozarks remain on the western edge of an upper level ridge over the southeastern CONUS.
535 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2016 Cold front has stalled along the southeastern fringes of the forecast area from Hill City to Gove. the Tri State region will sit between a broad h5 ridge over the eastern portion of the country. with a digging slow moving upper trough building over the rockies/western half of the country.
A low pressure system over central California will track southeast into Arizona by midweek. Increasing moisture associated with the low will lead to unsettled conditions across Utah by late in the week.
Warmer and mainly dry conditions by this weekend. Low pressure area is moving over the Northern San Joaquin Valley this evening.
944 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 High pressure will gradually build into the area through tonight and will then move off the Southeast coast by late Tuesday.
739 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 Low pressure off Virginia coast will continue moving northeastward. High pressure will build into the forecast area tonight then move off the southeast coast Tuesday.
Mainly clear skies and light winds will prevail under weak high pressure tonight.
1148 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016 The cold front that moved through last night has stalled southeast of the forecast area. Tuesday looks a lot more interesting as a low pressure system deepens over eastern Colorado during the day and lifts northeast into the evening. Southeast flow ahead of the low will draw in rich moisture, with dew points in the 50s and 60s across the area. Bulk shear will also be sufficient to support large hail with enough in the low levels to consider the threat for a tornado or two. Initiation should be west of the forecast area but storms will eventually transition into this favorable environment with a focus for convection expected along the warm front as it lifts north into Nebraska. A warm front will be dradped near the Nebr/Kansas border early Tuesday evening.
On Tuesday the upper trough will deepen southward and wrap around moisture will move into the area. Weak low pressure over the coastal waters will persist into Tuesday. then weaken as offshore high pressure builds into the area.
912 PM PDT MON MAY 23 2016 Two weak disturbances associated with a trough of low pressure will bring a chance for light showers west of the mountains tonight into Tuesday morning.
Expect mild and dry conditions across the cwa tonight, thanks to a weak area of high pressure.
853 PM PDT MON MAY 23 2016 A broad low pressure system will remain over the region into midweek for breezy winds and below normal temperatures.
Even with the light winds and high pressure dominating, dew point depressions should be such that any fog development will be very spotty, light and confined to areas closer to bodies of water. Upper low along east coast with upper trough down through the plains states with upper ridging in between keeping mostly clear skies and good flying weather next 24 hours across the Mid State.
717 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 Seasonably warm conditions will continue through the remainder of the week with highs expected to reach the lower 80s.
643 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016 The cold front that moved through last night has stalled southeast of the forecast area. Tuesday looks a lot more interesting as a low pressure system deepens over eastern Colorado during the day and lifts northeast into the evening. Southeast flow ahead of the low will draw in rich moisture, with dew points in the 50s and 60s across the area. Bulk shear will also be sufficient to support large hail with enough in the low levels to consider the threat for a tornado or two. Initiation should be west of the forecast area but storms will eventually transition into this favorable environment with a focus for convection expected along the warm front as it lifts north into Nebraska. A warm front will be dradped near the Nebr/Kansas border early Tuesday evening.
604 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016 A trough noted on the 700/500mb heights combined with two MCV's moving across eastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma were working to produce slow moving showers and thunderstorms across areas just west of the Ozarks and extreme southeastern Kansas. Several short waves will move over the flattening ridge tonight and through Tuesday. The overall pattern will change little from Tuesday evening through the end of the work week as the Ozarks remain on the western edge of an upper level ridge over the southeastern CONUS.
619 PM PDT MON MAY 23 2016 A broad low pressure system will remain over the region into midweek for breezy winds and below normal temperatures.
733 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 High pressure will push slowly east across the region tonight and Tuesday. A warm front will develop and lift northward into the northern Great Lakes region. High pressure will remain over the region and settle over southeastern Ohio by daybreak Tuesday. This will allow temperatures to drop into the lower 50s in the northwest where some southerly flow may persist.
359 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016 (Today and Tonight) The subtropical ridge will continue to dominate our weather the next 24 hours, with high temperatures a few degrees above normal for this time of year. Low clouds may develop across far southeast counties late tonight, otherwise mostly clear skies will prevail, with overnight lows mainly in the lower 70s.
low temps early this morning will vary from the lower 50s across the northern mtns (where the high cloud shield from the MCS recently spread across that region), to the lower and mid 60s in southern PA.
Latest data indicates the elevated CAPE and upper level short wave trough have shifted further south. North winds in the wake of earlier cold frontal passage will diminish in the late afternoon hours and remain light overnight. Generally ridging will persist aloft over the central plains on Thursday. Moderate instability will be in place by peak afternoon heating but deep layer shear will be limited to 20-30kts due to the ridge aloft.
WV imagery shows upper low dropping off the coastal waters of WA/OR this morning with a dry southwesterly flow over Idaho. A cold front will advance through Idaho Friday morning and is expected to blast the Snake Plain with 30 to 40 kt winds.
358 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 A stationary front over the area will begin to move south as a cold front today.
Low temps early this morning will vary from the lower 50s across the northern mtns (where the high cloud shield from the MCS recently spread across that region), to the lower and mid 60s in southern PA. and the track of low pressure along this boundary.
Also, a 500mb ridge sits generally to the west, but does periodically build closer to the region, mainly centered to the north.
Upper ridge across the the se will mean above average temperatures returning to the area starting today.
The stronger westerly flow aloft remains well north of the forecast area, but several weaker short wave trough move east of the Rockies and across the central high plains through the short term period. These short waves are appearing as diurnally driven convective feedback features in the models as each of them seem to appear over the higher terrain late each afternoon and move east over the plains states during the afternoon and overnight hours as they weaken downstream.
However, with cooler air and some limited lift today, could be some pop up showers east of the river today. Clouds, cooler temps, and possible showers all suggest temperatures a bit below normal for late June. High pressure right overhead tonight, with light winds and cool temperatures. Pleasant day Friday as high pressure moves away and return flow begins.
SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): An elongated 500mb subtropical ridge will prevail across the south-central and southeast United States today through Friday as a 500mb inverted trough/low across the southwest Gulf of Mexico moves westward across eastern Mexico today through tonight. Low to mid level moisture will increase across the western Gulf of Mexico as a result and this will provide at least a slight chance of showers across the coastal sections of the CWA tonight into Friday as subsidence diminishes across the area with a weakness in the subtropical ridge developing across south Texas through the short term.
The medium range period shows the upper high remaining anchored across the southern plains or retrograding back into the southern Rockies. All the significant forcing is relegated to a slow moving upper low that moves from the northern rockies this weekend into the Canadian Prairie Provinces.
410 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016 Deep layer ridging continues to control the weather over the ArkLaMiss. Subsidence associated with the ridge is resulting in typical summer heat and little in the way of diurnal convective precipitation. Models and their respective ensembles continue to show that the subtropical ridge will continue through the weekend. This feature will cause some minor height falls across the Lower Mississippi Valley as the subtropical ridge weakens and retrogrades back into the Southern Plains resulting in mid to upper troughng over the Eastern Conus as we push into the middle of the work week.
Today through Friday night Upper ridge remains in place but has been been flattened out by a short wave trough thats moving through the Ohio valley. This trough is producing widespread severe weather in the Ohio Valley as it merges with a larger trough off the eastern seaboard. As Ohio Valley system moves into the eastern United States, it will drag a cold front towards the region from the north.
Otherwise, high pressure is building into the region with cool temps in the 40s and 50s over central SD. This high will drift southeast across the area today, keeping skies mostly sunny with light winds and pleasant temperatures. Upper level ridging builds over the region on Friday.
An upper level low pressure system and associated front will move across the region today. This weather system will bring some light rain showers to the region and some cooler temperatures.
Low pressure over Illinois is expected to push east to the Eastern Great lakes today. dragging a cold front southward to the Ohio river.
Farther upstream, the previously strong short wavelength PV anomaly is being absorbed into the large trough complex over northeastern North America.
19z/2pm surface analysis shows 1005mb low over western Iowa, with warm front lifting northward into south-central Illinois along a Quincy to Effingham line. As high pressure builds into the region for the end of the week, dry weather is expected from Thursday night through Friday night. Mid level ridging is not very strong so the drier weather will be short lived.
A strong and sprawling upper level ridge covering the southern third of the U. A slow increase in moisture combined with daytime heating will support scattered diurnal sea breeze driven showers and storms across central and southern portions of the forecast area today and again on Friday, with the best storm coverage and highest rain chances setting up along and to the east of the I-75 corridor during the afternoon and early evening hours, with only isolated storm coverage at best expected across the Nature Coast where drier air and stronger suppression from the upper ridge will persist. Temperatures will remain above normal through the period with overnight lows in the mid 70s inland areas, and upper 70s to around 80 along the coast, with daytime highs climbing into the lower 90s along the coast, and mid 90s inland.
400 AM MDT THU JUN 23 2016 Upper level analysis has broad ridge building across the Rockies and Northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure was located across the Northern Plains with weak low pressure over southeast Wyoming. Today, warmer air can be expected today as southeast winds also bring in increasing low level moisture. Thermal ridge crosses the area with high temperatures climbing into the 90s, with some locations likely exceeding 100 degrees. A strong cold front will move through the area Friday night, with low temperatures ranging from the 40s in Northeast Wyoming - to the mid 60s across south central South Dakota.
Tonight Through Friday An upper level ridge remains in place overhead from here. This ridge continues to keep precip chances down again for this afternoon. There will be some better chances for precip for Thu as the upper level ridge flattens out. and a cold front starts to approach from the north. but with a less intense ridge overhead.
Another round of storms is likely near the higher terrain and northeast Thursday.
Another dry day is expected over most of the area with high pressure remaining the dominant feature. High temperatures will mainly be in the low to mid 90s across the area, except 80s right along the coast.
Main change from today will be warmer mid level temperatures that will inhibit thunderstorm development longer in the afternoon and also limit areal coverage of storms.