Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper level analysis places deep trough over the Rockies with low closing off over Colorado. aforementioned upper low ejects into the central plains overnight and lifts towards the upper midwest. Temperatures will be chilly, with most locations only reaching into the lower 30s. Going into the weekend into the start of the work week, upper ridge gradually builds and pushes over the area bringing a slow warming trend and quiet conditions. A large low pressure system will track to the south and east of North Dakota through Friday.
620 PM CST Thu Nov 17 2016 Main aviation concerns for the 17/00Z TAFs center around timing of a cold front and associated TSRA/SHRA on Friday, with streamer SHRA ahead of the front and increasing northerly winds behind the front. A cold front will approach the Southeast Texas terminals tomorrow, reaching College Station between 16-19Z, the Houston terminals between 19-22Z, and Galveston 22-01Z. Expect southerly winds to increase to around 10 knots, with winds becoming more westerly around 10-15 knots ahead of the front as a prefrontal trough moves across the terminals. Cold front still on track to push thru the region during the day Fri. Much cooler and breezy in the wake of the front.
Still fairly decent snow in the high mountains with the remaining moisture and orographic enhancement. The models show the upper trough moving east this evening with decreasing qg ascent as the trough axis shifts to the east. A ridge of high pressure will produce dry and stable conditions over the region on Friday.
1038 PM EST Thu Nov 17 2016 Dry high pressure will extend into the area from the west through Friday with above normal temps.
Deep layer ridging will remain entrenched over our area today and tonight, resulting in clear skies and light to calm winds.
Upper level ridge axis is directly over middle TN this afternoon.
The models show the upper trough moving east this evening with decreasing qg ascent as the trough axis shifts to the east. A ridge of high pressure will produce dry and stable conditions over the region on Friday.
358 PM PST Thu Nov 17 2016 A strong storm system will send a cold front across the area tomorrow. Rain will also develop along and behind the front, with snow developing across the higher mountain elevations.
608 PM EST Thu Nov 17 2016 Dry high pressure will extend into the area from the west through Friday with above normal temps.
449 PM MST Thu Nov 17 2016 Negatively tilted upper low pressure is currently centered over Colorado with several closed mid to upper level circulations indicative of the system closing off east of the Rockies within the h7/h5 layers. At the surface the cold front that pass through through our CWA early this morning is now over the OK panhandle.
Winds will quickly subside by late afternoon/early evening on Fri as high pressure builds over the area. Strong radiational cooling under the ridge will result in the coldest night of the season with lows falling to near 20 across portions of central KS.
619 PM EST Thu Nov 17 2016 High pressure will build over the East Coast through Friday.
910 PM EST Thu Nov 17 2016 High pressure will build over the East Coast through Friday.
/issued 348 PM PST Thu Nov 17 2016/ A ridge along the coast will build inland bringing offshore winds and warmer temperatures. Models show moderate gradients Friday from the High desert to the CA coast.
In the low levels of the atmosphere, a large area of high pressure will be centered over the Carolinas overnight. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, an area of high pressure will be located over the southeastern United States tonight. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a ridge of high pressure will progress eastward across the Gulf of Mexico overnight. Elevated saltwater levels will peak near the time of the higher high tide tonight, mainly between 10 pm and 1 am.
Run-to-run trend model analysis suggest the cold front timing is on track with earlier assessments. Increased cloud coverage is expected across most areas this evening continuing through Friday ahead of a strong cold front. As the cold front moves through the area, a line of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to affect parts of the Hill Country and areas along and east of I-35.
A brisk veering of winds to northwesterly will occur through the morning of Friday as the cold front moves through. Cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma after midnight with scattered showers/thunderstorms developing along boundary late tonight across southeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas.
Cold air moving across Arizona will keep overnight low temperatures well below freezing at most locations across northern Arizona. Warmer weather will return for the weekend as high pressure builds over the state.
805 PM EST Thu Nov 17 2016 High pressure will prevail over the region through Friday.
Thickening/lower cloud deck advancing out ahead of a strong cold front enters the picture by late afternoon/ evening. In the meantime, southwesterly flow will begin increasing tonight between departing high pressure to the east and deepening system to the west. As surface cold front approaches, clouds will increase from the west late in the day Friday with frontal showers expected Friday night with passage occurring around the midnight time frame.
536 PM CST Thu Nov 17 2016 A 999 mb low pressure over west central Iowa has a cold front extending sw through central KS to deepening 994 mb low pressure near the OK panhandle and NM border. The models take strong low pressure ne from OK panhandle into central Iowa by 12Z/6 am Friday and then to western upper MI by 6 pm Friday. This will push a strong cold front east into the IL river valley by 18Z/noon Friday and pass east of IL by 6 pm Fri. Temperatures to fall behind the cold front during Friday afternoon as fairly strong SSW winds 15-25 mph and gusts of 30-40 mph turn westerly during Fri afternoon.
926 PM EST Thu Nov 17 2016 The upper level ridge is directly overhead with the low level ridge now just to the east of the area. Chattanooga Airport, TN 46 79 49 55 / 0 0 50 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 44 77 47 54 / 0 0 50 40 Oak Ridge, TN 44 76 47 53 / 0 0 50 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 40 75 42 52 / 0 0 20 50.
At the surface, low pressure was centered near Medicine Lodge, KS, and a cold front extended south and west down into the TX South Plains. A stationary front extended northeast from the low across Central Kansas and into the upper Midwest. Strong and gusty northwest winds will prevail over the region on Friday behind the front, ushering in much cooler and drier air into the region. A brisk veering of winds to northwesterly will occur through the morning of Friday as the cold front moves through. Cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma after midnight with scattered showers/thunderstorms developing along boundary late tonight across southeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas.
349 PM PST Thu Nov 17 2016 A strong storm system will send a cold front across the area tomorrow. Rain will also develop along and behind the front, with snow developing across the higher mountain elevations.
65 inches, with most of the moisture trapped in the low levels below a prominent low level inversion.
700 PM EST Thu Nov 17 2016 High pressure continues through Friday.
1052 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY WEEK. UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVERNIGHT. WHILE AT THE SURFACE DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.
/ISSUED 340 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016/ MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE ERN GULF THROUGH THE ERN CONUS. WITH ADDITIONAL TROFFING UPSTREAM OVER THE PACIFIC CST. HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE ATTM AS LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD ALLOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF THIS ACTIVITY TO DIE OFF THIS EVENING.
/ISSUED 241 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016/ THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND BE SUPPRESSED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION.
/ISSUED 313 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016/ THE TROF AXIS OF THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WHILE THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN NE. ANOTHER UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER QUILEUTE WA WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD AND END UP OVER SOUTHERN UT BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
The latest runs of the RAP continue to show a mid level trough shearing out at the same time that the low level moisture convergence weakens. Southerly surface/low level winds, increasing cloud cover, and relatively high surface dew points will lead to low temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal and warmer than the previous night.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES.
704 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BEFORE A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FLORIDA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES RIDGES SOUTHWEST OVER FLORIDA TO PRODUCE MOSTLY PLEASANT WEATHER ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY.
915 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
All convective allowing models have been consistent throughout the day forecasting mid to late afternoon discreet storm development along the incoming Pacific cold front over the southeast sections of the DDC CWA.
/ISSUED 350 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016/ AREA OF PCPN THAT ORIGINATED DOWN THE LOWER TX COAST (OVERNIGHT) IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SE TX THIS AFTN. THE UPPER PATTERN IS AN ACTIVE ONE WITH THE NEXT UPPER LOW/TROF MOVING IN- TO THE SRN PLAINS TUES AND ANOTHER FRI. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WEST TEXAS HAS TIGHTENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SHORT WAVE RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA OF THE SOUTHWEST.
1151 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016 AT H5 IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS SEEN IN IR. DRY AIR ALOFT HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TEMPORARILY WITHIN THE CYCLONE DRY SLOT. BUT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
1113 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY AS A BOUNDARY SETS UP ALONG THE NEW YORK BORDER.
A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST REGION ON MONDAY WITH STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM MORNING TO EARLY EVENING ACROSS.
EXPECTING VFR AT KLRD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SE WINDS TONIGHT AND SOUTH WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOME MORE LIGHT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH TROUGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SOUTH TEXAS RAPIDLY GETTING ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH. WITH A GOOD LOW LEVEL JET MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS (IMPACTS OR CONVECTION TO THE NORTH).
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE THIS EVENING. TO INCLUDE THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AND HAVE INCREASED FORECAST WINDS IN THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT.
645 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016 AT H5 IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS SEEN IN IR. DRY AIR ALOFT HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TEMPORARILY WITHIN THE CYCLONE DRY SLOT. BUT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
1030 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY WEEK. UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVERNIGHT. WHILE AT THE SURFACE DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.
PROGS WERE A BIT TOO NORTH WITH THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS EARLY TODAY BUT SHOULD TRY TO CATCH UP AS THE 850 FRONT LIFTS TO NEAR THE WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY COOL PATTERN SETTING UP DURING THE PERIOD AS WESTERN TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SYSTEMS EJECTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE PERIOD.
A prefrontal trof ahead of the cold front will move into nw IL late tonight and bring isolated showers/thunderstorms to the IL river valley mainly nw of the IL river after 09Z/4 am.
an upper level low was positioned over South Dakota this evening with a dryline and cold front extending south and southwest into the Southern and Central Plains. forcing for ascent had lifted northward as the upper low shifted east northeast toward South Dakota. the upper low will continue to push eastward across South Dakota and along with it the thunderstorm chances remaining north of the CWA. southerly winds 5 to 15 mph will aid in transporting low level moisture back into the region while the dryline and cold front remain out west. All of these conditions will help to keep low temperatures on the warm side again tonight with lows in the 50s to the lower half of the 60s across the CWA.
THE LOWERED SHEAR VALUES AND PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION APPEAR TOO LOW FOR RISK AREA.
The 9 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a weak ridge along the Southeast coast. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a short wave trough over the northwest Gulf of Mexico, with increasing upper level moisture and weak Q-G forcing ahead of it.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS PROVIDING FOR A VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVELS FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY NIGHT. ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. RIDGETOPS WILL STAY SOME 10 DEGREES MILDER. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTIER SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON MONDAY.
/ISSUED 749 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016/ YET ANOTHER FANTASTIC SPRING EVENING IS ONGOING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FOLLOWING A PERFECT SPRING DAY WHICH WITNESSED TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S FOR HIGHS. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AREAWIDE WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS THAN EXPECTED OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE ALOFT CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST.
909 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND REINFORCE THE COLD AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY. HWVR, THE ECMWF SHOWS A BIT OF AN UPR RIDGE SHIFTING EAST FROM THE GRT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND, HELPING TO BOUNCE THAT UPR LOW EAST TOWARD GREENLAND. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FAR NORTH AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. SITUATION MAY THEN FLIP WED, AS THE SOUTH CLEARS NICELY, BUT UPR TROF WILL LEAD TO SOME BKN OR OVC SKIES UP NORTH WED AM INTO WED NIGHT.
OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE EDGES SLOWLY EASTWARD WE WILL RE- ESTABLISH A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
OVERCAST SKIES AND SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S THIS AFTERNOON HAVE LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO MAYBE 100 TO 200 J/KG AND THAT/S BEING GENEROUS. WEAKENING 500 HPA CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL MN BY 18Z WITH A 50-60 KT JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STRENGTH OF STORMS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHETHER OR NOT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN BUILD AHEAD OF THE LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE THE ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
715 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW CONFLUENT WNW FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BTWN A NRN STREAM TROF OVER SE CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND AND LOW AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR RAPID CITY. COLD AIR THAT HAS EXPANDED UNDER THE SE CANADA TROF AND WARM AIR PUSHING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF SRN STREAM MID LEVEL LOW HAS RESULTED IN A TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT/BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. INFLUENCE OF THE SE CANADA TROF IS FCST TO RELAX SOME. FAVORED THE LOW END OF AVBL GUIDANCE. TUE THROUGH NEXT SUN LOOKS COOL AND DRY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING.
UPPER LOW STILL SPINNING AS IT MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST SOUTHEAST OF RAPID CITY. CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTHWARD WILL CONTINUE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS IN ERN SD/WRN MN AND THEY WILL MOVE NORTH AND THEN WEST AROUND THE LOW. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION. AND HELD ON TO THE HIGHER POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION (IT WILL NOT BE A CONSISTENT RAIN.
Gusty south winds will continue tonight into Monday ahead of potent upper low moving into the four corners region by Monday afternoon.
930 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY AS A BOUNDARY SETS UP ALONG THE NEW YORK BORDER.
SURFACE: LOW PRES WAS OVER SD WITH A DRY TROF EXTENDING S THRU THE FCST AREA. THIS TROF WILL CONT E AND EXIT THE FCST AREA BY 00Z. THE CANADIAN COLD FRONT WAS WRAPPING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND WILL BE ENTERING THE NEB PANHANDLE SHORTLY. THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ORIENTED FROM W-E ACROSS KS BY TOMORROW WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS BEGINNING OVER CO. HEATING IS BEING INHIBITED BY INCREASING CLOUDS INDUCE BY LIFT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ALOFT. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHWR/TSTM OR TWO SNEAK INTO S-CNTRL NEB N OF HWY 92 IN THE COOLER AIR/WEAK INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT AS TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL.
HAVE CUT BACK ON THE WARMER GFS TEMPS. AND WITH THE SLIGHT COOLER TEMPS.
936 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA. VALLEY AND RIDGE TEMPERATURES ARE THE ONLY PART OF THE FORECAST THAT NEEDS UPDATED. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS PROVIDING FOR A VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVELS FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY NIGHT. ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. RIDGETOPS WILL STAY SOME 10 DEGREES MILDER. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTIER SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON MONDAY.
1154 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016 As ridging aloft is replaced by quasi-zonal flow tonight and into Monday, a southwesterly low level jet will increase to 30 to 40 knots over our region.
802 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 AVIATION A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT AND THROUGH MICHIGAN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
717 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016 WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SE TX GENERATING SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE LOW. SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BRING QUICK MOISTURE RETURN INTO NE TX WITH UPPER LOW CONTRIBUTION. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE TX AND WHILE THIS IS BY FAR WHERE THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FILLING UPPER TROUGH. SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED LAST NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FILLING UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT.
508 PM MDT SUN APR 24 2016 THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER FAR EASTERN WYOMING. FAR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AND FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BE TRACKING ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER OVERNIGHT WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY LATE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY THAN THEY WERE ON SUNDAY.
1241 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY AS A BOUNDARY SETS UP ALONG THE NEW YORK BORDER.
745 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY WEEK. UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVERNIGHT. WHILE AT THE SURFACE DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.
1122 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016 INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AT MID AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH EAST. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO WRAP AROUND THE MAIN LOW TOWARD SOUTH AND WILL STRETCH OUT ALONG THE UPPER LOW PATH LATER TONIGHT. ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND SOME WARMER AIR TO WORK INTO NORTHWEST IOWA MONDAY.
707 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD MONDAY RESULTING IN SLIGHT WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS HAS BROUGHT IN MODEST LEVELS OF MOISTURE.
945 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016 WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA PROVIDING SOURCE OF THE LIFT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA GENERATING LIFT TO THE NORTH RESULTING IN ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND REGIONAL RADAR INDICATIVE OF A LARGE/BROAD MID/UPPER COUNTERCLOCKWISE CIRCULATION EMINATING FROM A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. A MID LEVEL/700MB CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AND THEN RETROGRADES A BIT TO THE WEST MONDAY.
CURRENTLY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED BETWEEN KPIR/KMBG WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ALONG HIGHWAY 12 IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING JUST EAST OF KPIR/K9V9 WHERE DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S. MUCH OF THIS CWA IS SITUATED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WANES AFTER 6Z MONDAY AS COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHEAR OUT WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL LIFT REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
652 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016 WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA GENERATING LIFT TO THE NORTH RESULTING IN ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND REGIONAL RADAR INDICATIVE OF A LARGE/BROAD MID/UPPER COUNTERCLOCKWISE CIRCULATION EMINATING FROM A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. A MID LEVEL/700MB CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AND THEN RETROGRADES A BIT TO THE WEST MONDAY.
Southerly surface/low level winds, increasing cloud cover, and relatively high surface dew points will lead to low temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal and warmer than the previous night.
729 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
/ISSUED 230 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016/ UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WAS PROVIDING FOR SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ATTM. BY MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT AS SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA.
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THIS EVENING CONSISTS OF SOUTH- SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER UTAH WHILE UPSTREAM AN UPPER TROUGH HAS SHIFTED INLAND OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A 110KT 300MB JET IS PUNCHING SOUTH ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AND AS A RESULT THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PINCH INTO A CLOSED LOW LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEVADA. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE TOMORROW WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH.
SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS DRY NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GOOD FLYING WEATHER.