Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1043 PM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018 A cold front is positioned across the southern tip of Florida, though its satellite presentation is less than robust, with a broken band of clouds present across the the southern Gulf of Mexico. Long story short, we decided to follow instinct and modestly decrease rain chances to 10 percent for the rest of the night, but leave the 20 percent over the warmer waters of the Florida Straits where shower coverage continues at this time. An area of high pressure will be centered near the Carolina coastline overnight. This area of high pressure will progress eastward into the western Atlantic Ocean Thursday.
Due to the combination of southerly flow and overcast clouds aloft, we have increased minimum temps by a degree or so to indicate lows ranging from the lower 40s in the eastern valleys to the m-u 40s elsewhere.
With that, recent guidance favors slightly warmer lows tonight than previously fcst. Chattanooga Airport, TN 44 78 53 81 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 43 75 52 79 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 43 76 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 38 75 46 80 / 0 0 0 0.
/issued 344 PM CDT Wed Apr 11 2018/ The northwesterly flow aloft will gradually transition more zonal over the next 24 hours as the central CONUS ridge dampens. Temperatures at the surface continue to moderate back toward climatology as southerly winds resume, but the surface anticyclone continues to hang out over the southeast portion of the CWA, temporarily delaying moisture advection.
which should help keep temps a couple of degrees warmer than last night. /Issued 756 PM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018/ High pressure remains in control over the local area and the southeast states at large. Looking good for tonight as well as high quickly shifts east of the area, but moisture return will be very light and should continue to see mostly clear skies allowing for temps to return to the lower and mid 40s area wide.
522 PM MDT Wed Apr 11 2018 Upper level analysis shows slight ridging over the western/central CONUS, with a trough moving into the Pacific Northwest. Southwesterly winds earlier today have helped temperatures warm into the 60s and 70s across southern portions of the area, but winds are becoming gusty from the northwest behind a cold front. Upper trough will move onshore early Thursday, and chances for precipitation will increase as low pressure approaches the region. Temperatures will be cooler Thursday, but still warm enough for rain. Models continue to come into better agreement on the southward track of the low.
Southerly winds will become strong by the afternoon with gusts reaching 35 knots in the lower Rio Grande Valley at times. /issued 302 PM CDT Wed Apr 11 2018/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night): 500 mb and surface ridging will prevail over the Gulf of Mex, the southern Plains States and the southeastern States throughout the short term.
1005 PM CDT Wed Apr 11 2018 Wx map shows high pressure over the East Coast, with low pressure over the Central Plains. /issued 315 PM CDT Wed Apr 11 2018/ High pressure continues to move east across the southern U.
So, have expanded the High Wind Watch to now encompass nearly all lower elevations of Carbon County. Cold front barrels thru the southeast WY plains between 00-03z bringing an end to the daytime critical fire weather threat. No additional changes with this update, though once 00z data rolls in will be evaluating the potential need to expand the High Wind Watch for tomorrow afternoon. favorable southwesterly mid level flow will increase during the day ahead of an approaching upper trough over the western CONUS. This system will push a cold front east across se Wy during the afternoon.
1147 PM CDT Wed Apr 11 2018 Warmer and windy conditions are occurring over the area. Gusty south to southwest winds will continue through this period with warmer temperatures on Thursday. Severe storms, winds, and the potential for freezing temperatures all exist in this period.
/26/ Tonight through tomorrow: Quiet weather will continue through the short term period as surface ridging remains in control of the pattern. The ridge will continue to move east and is progged to become centered just off the east coast by Thursday evening. Winds look to remain just high enough tonight to keep the boundary layer mixed and limit true cooling potential, so kept overnight low temperatures on the warmer side of guidance. Sunny skies will prevail again tomorrow with a brief period of zonal westerly flow aloft which will continue to support a warming trend as high temperatures climb into the low 80s across much of the area.
While all the high resolution models/HRRR/RAP/GFSLamp correctly initialize that we have fog ongoing, the GFSLamp seems to be the more correct model with the true areal coverage. BUFKIT soundings indicate enough turbulence in the lowest 100mb to inhibit dense fog formation for Bismarck, Garrison, and Jamestown. While surface air temperatures are hovering near freezing, road temperatures are well above freezing, limiting any freezing rain threat. Leading short wave currently moving through the region producing mainly rain across the south and a mix of freezing rain and snow north. So far this storm has not produced as much freezing rain/sleet than earlier expected although the best chance for this remains far north central.
1015 PM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018 Large high pressure ridge extends across the northern GOMEX/Gulf Coast up through the mid Atlantic seaboard this evening. Mins generally in the U50s inland with L-M50s in normally cooler wind-sheltered areas. Afternoon highs will be a bit warmer Thursday, ranging from the mid- upper 70s along the coast to around 80 across the interior. High pressure will extend over a good portion of the SE states and along the Mid Atlc seaboard. Winds will develop a south component by Fri aftn with warmer conds and a slow increase in low level moisture. Further increase in southerly winds on Sat will bring increasing moisture and further destabilization in the afternoon as high pressure moves well out to sea. Presence of high pressure will allow for decreasing trend to wave conditions over the open Atlc.
As High pressure over the Tn valley moves east, and anchors off the southeast coast, and cyclogenesis occurs in the Plains, the pressure gradient across the mid Ms/lower Oh valley tightens up nicely with good, strong warm advection occurring Thu-Fri. The primary short term forecast challenge remains the developing Low pressure system/incoming Pops.
While surface air temperatures are hovering near freezing, road temperatures are well above freezing, limiting any freezing rain threat. Leading short wave currently moving through the region producing mainly rain across the south and a mix of freezing rain and snow north. So far this storm has not produced as much freezing rain/sleet than earlier expected although the best chance for this remains far north central.
943 PM CDT Wed Apr 11 2018 Warmer temps are the big story this evening with readings in the 50s to lower 60s. /issued 344 PM CDT Wed Apr 11 2018/ The northwesterly flow aloft will gradually transition more zonal over the next 24 hours as the central CONUS ridge dampens. Temperatures at the surface continue to moderate back toward climatology as southerly winds resume, but the surface anticyclone continues to hang out over the southeast portion of the CWA, temporarily delaying moisture advection.
High pressure builds Thursday. Low pressure will track eastward from the Great Lakes region Thursday and cross the region Thursday night. This high is keeping any precip at bay. High pressure continues to retreat this evening as the decaying occlusion approaches. High pressure at the surface and aloft rebuild later tonight into Thursday. Warm air advection with this ridge will generate highs several degrees warmer today.
725 PM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018 High pressure will drift east across the Carolinas today. This high will shift offshore on Thursday, bringing a southwest flow and warming trend, resulting in much above normal temperatures from Thursday into the weekend.
611 PM CDT Wed Apr 11 2018 An area of low pressure, currently over the Plains, will race east-northeast to lower Michigan by late Thursday morning. In fact, tonight's overnight lows will be warmer than most of the daily high temperatures we've seen this month (until today that is). One possible trouble area is across the far northern portion of the forecast area where the cold front trailing from tonight's system may sink into the area and produce notably cooler temperatures. A strong low pressure system is forecast to develop starting Thursday night over the Plains.
/Issued 246 PM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018/ High pressure remains in control over the local area and the southeast states at large. Looking good for tonight as well as high quickly shifts east of the area, but moisture return will be very light and should continue to see mostly clear skies allowing for temps to return to the lower and mid 40s area wide.
No additional changes with this update, though once 00z data rolls in will be evaluating the potential need to expand the High Wind Watch for tomorrow afternoon. favorable southwesterly mid level flow will increase during the day ahead of an approaching upper trough over the western CONUS. This system will push a cold front east across se Wy during the afternoon.
953 PM PDT Wed Apr 11 2018 A low pressure system will bring rain and mountain snow across the the Inland Northwest overnight into Thursday morning.
Upper level trough continues to slowly push a cold front across the Pacific northwest. The upper level trough will be over the area Thursday with very cold air aloft. Cooler temperatures tomorrow as well with highs in the 40s to mid 50s.
748 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 A cold front exits the mountains this evening, while an upper disturbance skirts the north.
A west-northwest flow aloft will prevail around a strong upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest through Tuesday. Somewhat cooler air at the surface is producing highs in the lower to mid 80s today. May be enough moisture and instability for a few weak showers and storms over the higher terrain. Low levels remain dry over the Front Range and eastern plains, so just expected mid and high cloud off the higher terrain.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 85 67 87 / 10 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 83 66 85 / 10 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 63 84 65 86 / 10 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 81 60 84 / 20 10 10 10.
The National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Three this afternoon, as this feature is expected to strengthen into a tropical or subtropical storm over the next couple of days.
750 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Convective coverage has decreased this evening as the mid-level trough axis shifts northward and diurnal heating ends. Possible Tropical Cyclone Three, north of the Yucatan peninsula in the Gulf of Mexico, continues to help focus convection to the west of our region. Some subsidence from Possible Tropical Cyclone Three is also helping lower convective coverage along the east coast metro.
With the rainfall fog will be possible overnight with KTRI having the highest chances.
For the rest of the night, as a well defined upper-level trough on water vapor imagery across the Great Lakes region heads east-northeast, associated and scattered convection across western NY and PA, as well as southern Ontario, and eastern OH, will do likewise. Additional showers are possible over the region on Tuesday due to the combination of lingering moisture and diurnal heating (cool air aloft)as the uppr trough remains over the region. A mid level short wave moves through the region during the overnight period in advance of the upper level trough axis.
1128 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 At H5 Gulf of Alaska closed low with a strong heat ridge from Mexico into the Pacific Northwest with the west coast torching out. Hudson Bay low with waves rotating from western Canada around the backside of the low through the northern Plains Broad trough through the midwest. At the surface there is a strong cold front along the Atlantic Seaboard with multiple convective watches from Maine to Virginia. Light and variable winds tonight with clear skies and fairly dry air at the lower levels will allow heat to radiate out with lows in the 50s. Southerly winds developing and ridge building east temperatures back into the 80s and 90s.
The area will remain under an upper level trough of low pressure on Tuesday and thus looking at the potential for more showers across the area.
/issued 329 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017/ Drier air continues to advect into the Mid-South this afternoon in the wake of a weak cold front. Dewpoints are currently in the low to mid 60s across much of the area, with upper 60s confined to north MS. Winds will be light overnight and temperatures are forecast to drop into the low/mid 60s. Models are in fair agreement that this feature will move in a general northerly direction over the next few days, meandering over the northern Gulf of Mexico, then lift north across the Lower Mississippi River Valley before turning northeast through TN.
Otherwise for now are we discounting the development of precip to the n and near MAF/HOB due to the lack of an indentifiable shrtwv trof, however there will be plenty of elevated instability. /issued 224 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017/ Current observations and satellite are showing the remnants of yesterday's cold front, now stationary from the southern Permian Basin into the Big Bend. Today has been a pleasant break from the heat, but upper level high pressure near the Four Corners Region will spread east into eastern New Mexico and West Texas causing highs to warm well above 100 degrees by the end of the week.
Cooler and slightly drier air is moving in for a couple of days. An upper level trough will approach the region later this week and bring showers and thunderstorms back to the state. Noticeably cooler in central and eastern areas.
A surface analysis this afternoon has the cold front now across middle Tennessee and far eastern Kentucky. Otherwise, plan on lows in the low to mid 60s. High pressure then builds into the region for Tuesday and Tuesday night providing seasonable conditions and less humidity. Plan on high temperatures in the low to mid 80s, and lows Tuesday night in the 60s.
/issued 346 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017/ The cloudy morning has helped to keep temperatures in check with 20Z readings only in the lower and middle 80s. The main story through the rest of the week will be the warming trend supplied by a strong upper ridge that will reside across the Desert Southwest.
1030 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 A cold front exits the mountains this evening, while an upper disturbance skirts the north.
515 PM MDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Current surface analysis shows high pressure from the northern Rockies to the Central Plains. Upper level analysis shows large scale trough over the Great Lakes region, with high pressure over the Four Corners region. Ridge extends north-northwest of the high across the intermountain west. Some warmer air will continue to build into the area through Tuesday, with highs tomorrow in the 80s to around 90 degrees. However, a weak frontal boundary will try and slip south into at least far northwest SD late tonight and early Tuesday, with slightly cooler temps expected across this area. This front will slide back northeast of the CWA as a warm front later Tuesday as a pacific cold front moves across the Rockies.
613 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 At H5 Gulf of Alaska closed low with a strong heat ridge from Mexico into the Pacific Northwest with the west coast torching out. Hudson Bay low with waves rotating from western Canada around the backside of the low through the northern Plains Broad trough through the midwest. At the surface there is a strong cold front along the Atlantic Seaboard with multiple convective watches from Maine to Virginia. Light and variable winds tonight with clear skies and fairly dry air at the lower levels will allow heat to radiate out with lows in the 50s. Southerly winds developing and ridge building east temperatures back into the 80s and 90s.
An area of low pressure over the southern Gulf of Mexico will slowly move northwestward over the next couple of days as Atlantic high pressure extends west across the Florida peninsula.
617 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Northwesterly flow continues to prevail over the region this afternoon as a closed low hovers north of Michigan and ridging builds across the West.
1042 PM MDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Current surface analysis shows high pressure from the northern Rockies to the Central Plains. Upper level analysis shows large scale trough over the Great Lakes region, with high pressure over the Four Corners region. Ridge extends north-northwest of the high across the intermountain west. Some warmer air will continue to build into the area through Tuesday, with highs tomorrow in the 80s to around 90 degrees. However, a weak frontal boundary will try and slip south into at least far northwest SD late tonight and early Tuesday, with slightly cooler temps expected across this area. This front will slide back northeast of the CWA as a warm front later Tuesday as a pacific cold front moves across the Rockies.
631 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Currently have an upper trough extending from the Great Lakes into the Ohio valley with nw flow aloft over the northern and central Plains.
923 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 An upper trough will maintain daily chances for showers and thunderstorms and cooler conditions through midweek. There are timing differences amongst the model guidance with this wave, so nothing more than low chance PoPs, with a focus closer to the upper trough.
1142 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 /06Z TAFS/ VFR conditions are expected to continue through tomorrow as the stalled cold front moves out of the area giving way for sunnier skies. VFR conditions are expected to continue through tomorrow as the stalled cold front moves out of the area giving way for sunnier skies. Then the upper level high pressure system reasserts itself tomorrow, resulting in sunny skies with with highs in the low to mid 90s. (Tonight and Monday) A large upper level ridge will be centered across the Desert Southwest through the end of the work week.
855 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 The upper level trough has pushed a cold front through the region this afternoon.
High level moisture from Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 was streaming north across the eastern gulf, impinging on the shear axis and driving cirrus further north into the Midsouth. /issued 329 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017/ Drier air continues to advect into the Mid-South this afternoon in the wake of a weak cold front. Dewpoints are currently in the low to mid 60s across much of the area, with upper 60s confined to north MS. Winds will be light overnight and temperatures are forecast to drop into the low/mid 60s. Models are in fair agreement that this feature will move in a general northerly direction over the next few days, meandering over the northern Gulf of Mexico, then lift north across the Lower Mississippi River Valley before turning northeast through TN.
656 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Persistent upper-level trough will slowly drift eastward tonight and Tuesday. Another round of showers will accompany the trough mainly affecting our southwestern and southern zones. High pressure moving into the west during the morning will work to erode the cloud cover and bring an end to precipitation for most areas. Temperatures will remain below normal through Tuesday due in large part to the cooler air aloft and cloud cover. Quiet weather is expected for Tuesday night with a weak ridge axis over the forecast area.
1211 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Cooler and slightly drier air is moving in for a couple of days. An upper level trough will approach the region later this week and bring showers and thunderstorms back to the state. Short wave trough moving overhead is producing some showers which are surviving surprisingly farther to the east than expected. Noticeably cooler in central and eastern areas.
1014 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 A cold front will track east across the mountains this evening, then stall over the Carolinas tonight. A lead cold front, and relatively deep convergence axis that extends through around 850 mb per proximity RAOB and regional VWP data, is roughly aligned with the wsw to ene-oriented band of training convection now over the nrn NC Piedmont. The cold front progressing into the region late this evening is expected to stall over central NC tonight and persist during the day Tue, amidst broad cyclonic flow aloft and rich moisture (PWAT ~2. 50" and dewpoints in the lower 60s) is progged to be in place during the day Tue. With cloud cover and convection, expect highs in the lower 80s across most of central NC.
1146 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 A cold front crosses the Tri-State tonight, followed by a trough of low pressure building into the area on Tuesday through Tuesday night.
954 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Northwesterly flow continues to prevail over the region this afternoon as a closed low hovers north of Michigan and ridging builds across the West.
/ISSUED 526 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017/ Went ahead and included iso PoPs for the next 6 hours on the Plateau and Rio Grande Plains with the inverted trough continuing to push southwest over the area. Also tweaked hourly T grids to account for cooler temperatures over the Austin and surrounding areas due to earlier rainfall.
ENE winds forecast to increase and become gusty from W to E tomorrow as an area of low pressure/possible tropical storm/ moves north through the Gulf. Further southeast, the disturbance that has been monitored for the past several days has moved into the southern Gulf and advisories are now being issued for Potential Tropical Cyclone 3. 24 The main issue with the forecast this aftn is the upgrade of the tropical disturbance in the Gulf to Potential Tropical Cyclone 3.
1158 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Water vapor imagery and RUC analysis reveals mid-upper level pattern with a ridge over the western CONUS and broad trough into the central CONUS including the Great Lakes region. Given the fairly weak instability combined with minimal deep layer shear expect only small hail with stronger storms into early this evening despite lower freezing levels of 8-9 kft. Overall, temperatures will warm back to near normal for this time of year by the middle of the week, and then trend a bit cooler for this weekend.
916 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 A cold front will cross the area tonight. Weak high pressure will build over the area for the middle of the week.
937 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 An upper level trough will continue over the region through mid week.
Isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms with gusty winds could develop Tuesday afternoon over the higher terrain, mainly from Flagstaff eastward.
Winds are the main concern with the highest winds over the western marine areas at 20 knots from Smith Shoal to the Dry Tortugas, and near 15 knots with some higher gusts from Long Key to the east.
A cold front will reach the area Tuesday morning. An upper ridge will build offshore and then it will shift closer to the area for warmer weather by the weekend. Clouds will continue to fill in over Western Washington tonight and a cold front will reach the area Tuesday. Strong onshore flow will develop in the wake of the cold front and scattered showers might linger into the afternoon in the PSCZ.
Quiet weather expected tonight as cloud cover dissipates and winds become light and variable as high pressure settles over the region. Best chances for rain and thunder still appear to be with a cold front that will move into the area this weekend.
735 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 An upper level trough will remain over the area for the next 24 hours causing scattered showers and thunderstorms again Tuesday.
Looks like the cold front is already southeast of the local area as of 23z with winds generally from the north.