Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Scattered to broken high clouds on the back of the upper low moving south. The upper low that gave us some good rain early yesterday morning continues east and out of the area. Upper ridging builds in from the west leaving us with northwest flow aloft. Even warmer highs on Monday with most of the area seeing mid to upper 90s.
721 AM EDT Sun May 17 2020 A weak warm front will lift across PA today. A closed upper low will develop over the Midwest and move slowly to the Tennessee Valley by the middle of the week. Models are very well aligned with a (much) farther west advance and slower approach of the expected cut-off low moving down from the upper plains/midwest.
919 AM EDT Sun May 17 2020 Hydro Low pressure will bring heavy rain to Lower Michigan today and tonight.
Dry and Cooler. Afternoon highs will be cooler and much closer to usual mid May highs.
929 AM EDT Sun May 17 2020 A slow moving low pressure system will bring periods of rain Sunday afternoon through Monday evening.
703 AM EDT Sun May 17 2020 A slow moving low pressure system will bring periods of rain Sunday afternoon through Monday evening.
Wet weather conditions will slowly give way to drier conditions today as an upper level low continues to pull southeast and away from our area. But, a gradual clearing trend will take place from west to east as a ridge of high pressure begins to build across the western Dakotas. This ridge will be in control through the remainder of the period marking the beginning of a drier and warmer stretch for this forecast area.
624 AM CDT Sun May 17 2020 Upper level low pressure centered across northwest IA early this morning is slowly tracking east away from the area this morning. Moisture wrapping west and south around the low is causing low- level cloudiness to be widespread across western and north central Nebraska. Highs in these areas will remain in the lower 60s. Skies will clear tonight and with light winds lows will drop into the lower to mid 40s. Upper level ridging builds across the central CONUS Monday as upper lows reside across the eastern and western CONUS. Low-level moisture return will be limited due to the upper low across the eastern CONUS with dry conditions expected.
Early morning water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper low spinning across southwest Minnesota. Clouds continue to wrap around the low into southeast North Dakota, while any precipitation as shown on the regional radar mosaic has generally been well south and east of the forecast area early this morning. The quiet weather is expected to continue tonight, though some of the high resolution model solutions are hinting at the chance of a few showers that would come out of eastern Montana into western parts of the state. A large upper low across the western United States will try to makes it way east with southwesterly flow taking hold across parts of the region.
VFR conditions will prevail the rest of the morning into this afternoon as subsidence increases in the wake of the 500mb trough across east Texas moving eastward. /issued 411 AM CDT Sun May 17 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): 500mb trough across east Texas extending southwest towards the lower Texas coast early this morning will provide at least a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. through the rest of the morning before low to mid level moisture diminishes across deep south Texas this afternoon as subsidence increases across southwest Texas in the wake of the upper level trough moving eastward and a 500mb ridge across northern Mexico amplifying. Northerly flow aloft will continue across the Rio Grande Valley and northern ranchlands tonight into Monday as the upper level ridge across northern Mexico and west Texas moves little if any.
525 AM MDT Sun May 17 2020 Water vapor shows upper low over far southeast SD with large ridge over the Rockies, and upper trof along the west coast. At the surface, ridge extends over western SD. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies and much warmer temps expected with upper ridge shifting into the northern plains.
Tropical Storm Arthur in the Atlantic and Atlantic high pressure building west between the Florida Keys and Cuba will shift winds to southwest or west by afternoon.
728 AM EDT Sun May 17 2020 Aviation Low pressure will bring heavy rain to Lower Michigan today and tonight.
Moving into Monday, high pressure will amplify as an omega block pattern sets up across the central CONUS.
Some showers are being tracked over West Tennessee tonight associated with an area of positive vorticity advection ahead of an upper low which is currently centered over eastern Oklahoma/ northeast Texas. Meanwhile further north, another upper low is centered over northeast Nebraska. Both of these upper lows will be in control of our weather for the next 5 days. Shower activity will continue overnight as the southern upper low slides east. Shower and storms will once again be possible on Monday as a cold front moves across the area.
750 AM EDT Sun May 17 2020 A weak warm front will lift across PA today. A closed upper low will develop over the Midwest and move slowly to the Tennessee Valley by the middle of the week. Models are very well aligned with a (much) farther west advance and slower approach of the expected cut-off low moving down from the upper plains/midwest.
Locally, showers were spiraling counterclockwise around an area of low pressure centered near Texarkana. The severe weather risk appears to be minimal at this time, however with the amount of spin associated with the surface and upper low, a few rotating showers or low topped supercells could produce a brief spin up tornado. Precipitation will come to an end on Monday with drier and cooler weather returning to the Natural State. On Monday, highs will range from the upper 60s across the N to the lower 80s across the Srn AR.
Lower theta-E air continued to advect south on the heels of an upper trough axis, so subsidence should have the upper hand for the remainder of the day. Increasing subsidence expected over the region today as an upper trough moves EWD across the NWRN Gulf of Mexico.
North winds will continue today, but with less cloudiness, temperatures will be warmer in most areas compared to yesterday.
/Issued 311 AM CDT Sun May 17 2020/ Areas of light rain continue across portions of southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas on backside of low pressure system in deformation zone. Rain will continue to decrease in coverage through mid morning as drier air filters into the region behind cold front. Dry/mild conditions are expected through the early part of the work week as ridging at the surface and aloft persist with upper blocking pattern developing.
This activity is occurring ahead of an upper low, easily viewed on regional radar loop over Arkansas. After this first band of showers weakens, more scattered shower and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Mid State through the afternoon as the low from Ar moves closer. The greatest chances for that will be over our west counties this afternoon, then again over the eastern third of our area early afternoon Monday ahead of a cold front. Otherwise, we are still on track for another warm day with highs mostly in the low to mid 80s.
Presently sfc obs show MVFR ceilings encroaching the wrn 1/2 of the forecast area while a large area of rain associated with the upper low is beginning to enter the nwrn portions of the area. The low clouds are progged to continue spreading ewd while also slowly rising with daytime heating. An area of low pressure is near Texarkana this morning. The associated cold front stretches south and southwest from the low to near Houston. Behind the boundary high pressure is located from Central Texas to Canada.
Latest water vapor imagery shows a closed low moving east across northeast Nebraska this morning. Gusty northwest winds behind the system are forecast to continue through much of the day as high pressure building in behind the low strengthens the surface pressure gradient. Amplified upper level ridging builds overhead early this week with a closed off low over the eastern U. Meanwhile,a large trough will dig across the western U. Toward the end of the week, the western trough will begin to pivot into the northern Plains providing warmer temperatures and chances for thunderstorms.
Two areas of interest this morning on water vapor imagery as Kansas is sandwiched between two upper level troughs, one rotating into eastern Nebraska with the second lifting towards southern Arkansas. As the northern stream cyclone matures, strong northerly winds increase from 10 to 20 mph through early evening with gusts up to 30 mph possible. For tonight, 850 moisture increases downstream of the departing upper low, resulting in mostly cloudy skies returning to far eastern Kansas. Therefore boosted overnight lows a few degrees into the lower 50s while readings in the 40s likely where lesser cloud cover is present.
432 AM CDT Sun May 17 2020 Upper level low pressure centered across northwest IA early this morning is slowly tracking east away from the area this morning. Moisture wrapping west and south around the low is causing low- level cloudiness to be widespread across western and north central Nebraska. Highs in these areas will remain in the lower 60s. Skies will clear tonight and with light winds lows will drop into the lower to mid 40s. Upper level ridging builds across the central CONUS Monday as upper lows reside across the eastern and western CONUS. Low-level moisture return will be limited due to the upper low across the eastern CONUS with dry conditions expected.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): 500mb trough across east Texas extending southwest towards the lower Texas coast early this morning will provide at least a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. through the rest of the morning before low to mid level moisture diminishes across deep south Texas this afternoon as subsidence increases across southwest Texas in the wake of the upper level trough moving eastward and a 500mb ridge across northern Mexico amplifying. Northerly flow aloft will continue across the Rio Grande Valley and northern ranchlands tonight into Monday as the upper level ridge across northern Mexico and west Texas moves little if any.
Temperatures so far have risen into the lower 80s with dew points in mid 70s. Typically this wind direction in the lowest levels promote downsloping off of Cuba which leads to drier and warmer air in the lowest levels. Nonetheless, given the lowest level winds from the south, it will be hard to get enough moisture other than clouds and will adjust PoPs downward. Rain chances will be increasing tonight as better moisture filters into the region with the low level steering flow becoming more southwesterly.
330 AM MDT Sun May 17 2020 Northeast Montana looks set for dry weather conditions today along with warmer temperatures ahead of what appears to be a much more active pattern setting up during the week. Amplified upper ridging will shift downstream of the region as a deepening upper trough over the western U.
A cold upper low was positioned offshore from NRN CA and OR early Sunday morning. Destabilization will also occur inland as cold air aloft and upper-level divergence associated with the exit region of a 120+ kt 250 mb jet spreads east ahead of the upper low. In addition to the showers and storms, gusty south winds from 20 to 30 mph will be likely this afternoon across exposed ridges and coastal areas as a surface wave moves east across the region. The center of the previously mentioned upper low is forecast to move inland across Mendocino County during Monday.
Quiet weather is expected to continue tonight, though some of the high-resolution short-term models are hinting at a few showers grazing northwest ND as a weak mid-level wave moves through.
Showers are increasing over the area this afternoon as an upper low is positioned just off the coast. However continued scattered to numerous showers are expected as the upper low gradually moves onshore. On Monday the upper low remains in place, gradually shifting south along the northern California coast.
The upper level pattern across the CONUS hasn't changed a whole lot over 24 hours with a highly amplified pattern with a deep closed low slowly drifting east over Iowa, a sharp short wavelength ridge over the spine of the Rockies and a deep trough working into the Pacific coastal region.
with eastern spots by the afternoon due to their proximity to the ridge shifting further east of the CWA. This upper ridge is part of an omega block, and expect little movement of it during the short term period.
328 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020 A recent upper level analysis shows 2 upper lows blending together as they track east to the Mississippi Valley. This makes sense with the low PW's currenly in place, which can be seen on WV imagerly. Higher PW regime will accompany the rain later today but the loss of daytime heating and generally lack of a deep trough. As the trough shifts east, medium range models show it becoming cutoff from the flow and sitting right over the southeastern US all week.
1229 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020 Upper level low pressure centered across northwest IA early this morning is slowly tracking east away from the area this morning. Moisture wrapping west and south around the low is causing low- level cloudiness to be widespread across western and north central Nebraska. Highs in these areas will remain in the lower 60s. Skies will clear tonight and with light winds lows will drop into the lower to mid 40s. Upper level ridging builds across the central CONUS Monday as upper lows reside across the eastern and western CONUS. Low-level moisture return will be limited due to the upper low across the eastern CONUS with dry conditions expected.
1010 AM CDT Sun May 17 2020 Water Vapor Imagery this morning showing our stubborn upper level low low spinning across Central/Southern Arkansas attm with this feature expected to continue moving slowly to the east today. Cold front currently extends near an El Dorado, Minden to Lower Toledo Bend line and the warm sector ahead of this boundary should continue to warm to near forecast max temps while our northwest zones should see sun this afternoon.
Despite the presence of high clouds, we should still see highs in the lower 80s to near 90. Increasing moisture and southerly winds will lead to warmer overnight lows Monday night, with temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s.
140 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020 Aviation Low pressure will bring heavy rain to Lower Michigan today and tonight.
1029 AM CDT Sun May 17 2020 Current water vapor satellite shows a low over central Arkansas, as well as a low over Minnesota carrying a cold front. The cold front is draped from Missouri to the Texas panhandle. As the low over central Arkansas pushes eastward the cold front will eventually catch up and the lows will work in tandem to push the front across the area by this evening. The low over Arkansas, combined with southerly winds pulling warm air into the region will be the main rain maker this morning before the front swings through. As of 3 AM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South are in the lower 70s at most locations. Shower and thunderstorm chances will gradually diminish tonight into Monday morning as cool high pressure builds into the region.
Issued by National Weather Service Billings MT 250 PM MDT Sun May 17 2020 An upper ridge has shifted out of the region this was allowing a deepening upper trough over the western U.
Monday morning, winds return south at 5 to 15 mph, as a lee trough develops. Afternoon highs will be cooler and much closer to usual mid May highs.
/issued 1029 AM CDT Sun May 17 2020/ Current water vapor satellite shows a low over central Arkansas, as well as a low over Minnesota carrying a cold front. The cold front is draped from Missouri to the Texas panhandle. As the low over central Arkansas pushes eastward the cold front will eventually catch up and the lows will work in tandem to push the front across the area by this evening. The low over Arkansas, combined with southerly winds pulling warm air into the region will be the main rain maker this morning before the front swings through. As of 3 AM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South are in the lower 70s at most locations. Shower and thunderstorm chances will gradually diminish tonight into Monday morning as cool high pressure builds into the region.
/Tonight through Sunday/ Churning low pressure system currently moving across central Iowa will continue to make the rest of today and portions of tomorrow fairly uncomfortable. Light rain/showers will continue to be seen across areas of the state, as well as increasing winds on the backside of the low and as it exits. Temperatures will remain cool/cold this time of the year with highs today and tomorrow only in the upper 50s to mid 60s for most before slowly rising back towards the low 80s by the end of the week.
For now, we will only go with SCT clouds as model guidance is not too consistent with the low-level moisture. Scattered to broken high clouds on the back of the upper low moving south. The upper low that gave us some good rain early yesterday morning continues east and out of the area. Upper ridging builds in from the west leaving us with northwest flow aloft. Even warmer highs on Monday with most of the area seeing mid to upper 90s.
346 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020 Current satellite and station plots indicate a north/south cold front pushing towards eastern Arkansas.
Cold front has pushed through all but the ELD, MLU terminals with a wind shift expected at those terminal locations later today as well. /issued 1010 AM CDT Sun May 17 2020/ Water Vapor Imagery this morning showing our stubborn upper level low low spinning across Central/Southern Arkansas attm with this feature expected to continue moving slowly to the east today. Cold front currently extends near an El Dorado, Minden to Lower Toledo Bend line and the warm sector ahead of this boundary should continue to warm to near forecast max temps while our northwest zones should see sun this afternoon.
/issued 311 AM EDT Sun May 17 2020/ DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY THIS WEEK BEFORE EARLY SUMMER WEATHER Tropical Storm Arthur is forecast by the NHC to continue to move northeast towards the outer banks of North Carolina, as an mid to upper level low over Texas moves east northeast towards the Tennessee Valley. The mid to upper level low will become stationary over the Tennessee Valley, as a low level trough associated with the low moves eastward from the Gulf of Mexico into South Florida. This will keep the south to southwest wind flow over South Florida allowing for tropical moisture to work into the region ahead of the low level trough.
252 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020 Northerly winds transporting drier air into Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas continued to spread southward behind the departing cold front and low pressure system pushing eastward out of Arkansas. another closed low pressure system currently centered over Iowa was slowly drifting southeast with scattered cumulus clouds moving southward over Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. and possibly scatter out this evening for a period before filling in again over parts of far Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas as the closed low continues its southeastward trajectory. with the drier air and subsiding winds lows in the low to mid 50s still look possible for most locations.
A closed upper low over Iowa will drift slowly southeast druing the period. A weak cold front approach on Monday and should make it into at least our Plateau counties by the end of the day.
On Monday night, the closed low pressure area will continue to move slowly southeast away from the region.
This will lead to mid level ridging pushing into the Rockies and much of the plains later today and remain over the area through Tue. Medium range models also suggest, that the blocky pattern will be short-lived and KS will become more influenced by the western trof and a return to SW flow by Thu and the start of the Memorial Day weekend. Ketcham A low pressure system over the northern portions of the Mississippi River Valley is moving eastward, but residual cloud cover on the wrap around of this system is keeping MVFR/low VFR ceilings in north central to southeast Kansas thus impacting KSLN and KCNU. Otherwise high pressure moving in from the west is making way for minimal cloud cover off to the west.
Lower theta-E air continued to advect south on the heels of an upper trough axis, so subsidence should have the upper hand for the remainder of the day.
590 dm upper high centered over Mexico currently will build progressively northward through Monday night, with strong height rises, upper ridging, and subsidence over SW Kansas.
And with the upper low currently near us cutting off over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys (south of the larger scale ridge), the pattern will be fairly locked up for the week.
309 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020 Tropical Storm Arthur will move the north-northeast along the Carolina coast through tomorrow afternoon, as the upper level low over the Mississippi Valley shifts eastward across the Gulf coast states. The upper low is absorbed by the stronger low over the upper midwest during the day tomorrow as the front pushes into the forecast area by the end of the period.
A long wave trough over the west coast will eject a couple of short waves into the Northern Rockies this afternoon through Monday.
218 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020 An upper low/trough is over Louisiana and Arkansas with another upper low/trough over Iowa. Upper ridging is developing over southeast New Mexico and West Texas with another upper trough just off the west coast. Temperatures today will be a little warmer than yesterday with south to southeast winds. The upper ridge over the region will continue to strengthen and build northward on Monday.
Meanwhile, coverage of showers and thunderstorms was increasing back toward the Ms River ahead of an upper level low moving out of Arkansas. But, trends will go up again by midday Monday as a cold front moves across the area. Once again a few storms could be marginally severe on Monday, mainly for the eastern third of our counties in the afternoon as instability is maxed ahead of the cold front. The main wx feature for Monday night through the rest of the week will be a closed, wandering upper level low pressure system.
257 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020 Visibile satellite shows only a few fair weather cu drifting off the Lower Keys. The cloud line never materialized, most likely due to a dry layer situated in the lowest 1000 feet AGL. Otherwise, there are some very thin cirrus beginning to move into our western waters and starting to reach the Lower Keys. This is because a thermal trough has developed over the Florida Peninsula and is inducing a localized pressure gradient.
212 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020 A sfc cold front from near STL to UNO will shift east. The persistent upper level blocking pattern will continue, gradually trying to break down or shift eastward toward the weekend. A persistent upper low just off to our east over the OH and TN Valley region will keep the cyclonic flow aloft over MO through Wed and can see periods of clouds, sprinkles, and cool temperatures sticking around awhile. Temperatures will gradually moderate by the end of the week as the upper low weakens and shifts east and upper level ridging moves over the area.
We are seeing temperatures in the low 70s across the north already. Early morning water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper low spinning across southwest Minnesota. Clouds continue to wrap around the low into southeast North Dakota, while any precipitation as shown on the regional radar mosaic has generally been well south and east of the forecast area early this morning. The quiet weather is expected to continue tonight, though some of the high resolution model solutions are hinting at the chance of a few showers that would come out of eastern Montana into western parts of the state. A large upper low across the western United States will try to makes it way east with southwesterly flow taking hold across parts of the region.