Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front, currently across our central counties, will continue to move south this morning. /issued 349 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015/ (Today and Tonight) A cold front has entered our northern counties, and will continue to move south across west central Texas today. High temperatures today will be 4-6 degrees cooler than yesterday across our northern and central counties. Lows are expected to be in the lower to mid 40s.
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS. A SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CELL EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND ALL THE WAY TO CUBA.
COOLER AIR WILL INFILTRATE ON THE WEEKEND DUE TO A TROUGH APPROACHING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
346 AM PST THU NOV 19 2015 MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE.
1004 AM EST THU NOV 19 2015 A MID LATITUDE TROUGH IS LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT THIS HOUR. A LINE OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS IS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LOWER KEYS TO THE MARQUESAS KEYS AND OUT TO 60 MILES. THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OVER THE EAST COAST STATES THROUGH NORTH FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT.
IN ADDITION TEMPERATURES OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH HAVE WARMED FASTER THAN FORECASTED. 09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING PLACES A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BACK THROUGH WESTERN MISSOURI AND OKLAHOMA/TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TODAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID SOUTH TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TODAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA WATERS TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A TAD WARMER THAN YESTERDAY'S VALUES. CLOUDS AROUND 6 KFT OVER THE GULF WATERS EAST OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE COASTAL BEND/BRUSH COUNTRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO EAST-SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WENT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW COOLER NAM GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 68 40 60 38 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 37 57 35 / 0 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 66 37 56 35 / 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 65 35 54 30 / 0 0 0 0.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 40S.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS JUST PASSING THROUGH EUFAULA AT THIS WRITING. THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT STARTED CLEARING ABOUT SUNSET WEST LAST NIGHT. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL ZIP INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BARELY BE NOTICEABLE.
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE ATL AREA AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA TODAY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWFA FRIDAY NIGHT.
320 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 DRY AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR SKIES.
454 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
1046 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 917 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015/ THE 5H TROF AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT.
RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT STILL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE PREDOMINATE WX FEATURE THRU 04/06Z.
SOME OF THIS AREA MAY HAVE THE LOW STRATUS ADVECT IN LATE TONIGHT WHICH MAY HELP OFFSET THE FG POTENTIAL. WHERE THE STRATUS WILL PERSIST AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THESE MVFR BASES SHOULD BE INTERMITTENT AS A RAGGED AREA OF CLOUD DECKS ROTATES AROUND CLOSED LOW TO THE EAST.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS STILL FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE GULF COAST DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING WESTERN STATES TROUGH. GIVEN THE UPPER RIDGE.
WE HAVE BEEFED UP THE WORDING IN THE GRIDS AND THE ZONE FORECAST AND HAVE EXPANDED THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA IN THE HWO. A DEEP UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL MOVE IN OVER THE CA COAST AND TOWARDS THE ROCKIES AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS MORE OVER THE GULF AND S TO SW STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ACROSS WESTERN ZONES TOMORROW WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. THOUGH SOMEWHAT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW HAS RETURNED WITH WEAK WAA.
As a lee trof strengthens some Tue PM winds are expected to increase at MAF, turning gusty. A trough currently seen on satellite along the west coast, will deepen and move east over the next few days causing upper flow to increase and become more southwesterly. Downsloping winds will cause temperatures to increase tomorrow, but temps will cool beginning Wednesday as heights fall with the approach of the trough. Models are still showing showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of the trough with the eastern Permian Basin still the most likely area to receive rainfall thanks to better moisture availability.
We continue to have weak high pressure at the surface with quite a bit of shallow low level moisture underneath a lot of dry air aloft. Pattern will begin to amplify today with a ridge to our east and developing upper level trough to our west, bringing a broad area of southwest flow into the region. Have dropped back on temperatures a few degrees from what we were going yesterday, but should still reach the low to mid 70s in most locations. Mild conditions will continue into tonight with lows in the low to mid 50s.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
1140 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 WESTERN HIGH PLAINS LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TONIGHT AS ENERGY CROSSES THE ROCKIES. PRIMARY INFLUENCE TO IOWA WILL BE THE WARM FRONT THAT HAS LINGERED OVER NORTHERN IOWA. THIS WILL KEEP THE STATE MILD OVERNIGHT AND WILL BRING WARMER LOWS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT WHERE READINGS DIPPED INTO THE 30S AGAIN THIS MORNING. MUCH OF THIS STRATUS HAS DISSIPATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HOWEVER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTH OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD REACH SOUTHERN IOWA BY 12Z TUESDAY. LOCALIZED FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES.
HIGH PRESSURE. THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE WELL WEST OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL ALONG WITH UNSEASONABLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. MODELS HAVE STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
IT WAS RATHER EVIDENT A RIDGE WAS BUILDING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST OVERNIGHT PER INFRARED IMAGERY. THERE IS LITTLE SUPPORT FOR ANY CLOUD COVER TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES UNDER THE RIDGE. THICKNESSES TODAY ARE ABOUT 10 DM HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY MAINLY DUE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 900-700 MB LAYER.
452 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN AN EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY VICINITY OF CENTRAL GA SHOULD KEEP THAT AREA IN SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR.
Southern stream upper trof is making its way across the Deep South today, but slinging a modest amount of mid/high cloud cover northward into central Kentucky. Anywhere south of the dewpoint discontinuity is fair game for dense fog, as dewpoints are near 60 and forecast min temps will be in the lower/mid 50s. Upper ridging will build from the Lower Mississippi Valley by Tuesday morning, setting up more of a mid/late September pattern.
149 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES TONIGHT WILL SLIDE EAST AND OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THEN REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. SIMILAR TEMPS INTO WED AND THU AS THE SFC HI RETREATS TO THE NE AND A CSTL TROF DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA CST. BUT WILL BEGIN TO SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP FRI NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE WEEKEND IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. BUT SRN STREAM ENERGY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT. LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK UPPER TROUGH COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS TUE NGT/ERY WED.
COLDER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A LEE SIDE LOW NOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP THIS MORNING INDICATES A LARGE WESTERN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ALBERTA INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE SHOWING UP OVERNIGHT AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S DESPITE RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS. THE WESTERN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVANCE EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
245 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
335 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 Quiet weather will continue today across southeast New Mexico and west Texas under modest, but increasing, southwest flow aloft ahead of an upper trough located over California/Utah early this morning per Water Vapor satellite imagery. Temperatures will warm above normal again today and Wednesday, but perhaps a degree or two lower each day due to height falls ahead of the ua trough.
FREEZING RAIN. AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR OUR NORTHERN TIER ZONES ON TUESDAY WHILE SNOW HAS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE TO ACCUMULATE A FEW INCHES IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE LITTLE ROCKIES. CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST TO ZONAL LOW LIES OVER MONTANA WITH A WARM HIGH PRESSURE SETTING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. A LARGE TROUGH RUNS DOWN THE WEST COAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. WITH WINDS TURNING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST CAA MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SLEET TO MIX IN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE OPHEIM PLATEAU FROM NORTHERN VALLEY TO SHERIDAN COUNTY BY THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY.
302 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 AN ANOMALOUS AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEK.
JLDUNN WIDESPREAD FOG IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID TUESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES COOL WITHIN AN ATMOSPHERE CHARACTERIZED BY DECENT MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE THE HIGHEST. /ISSUED 333 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015/ UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 80S WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTENDS OVER THE COASTAL STATES.
101 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MIDWEEK WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
AFTER FOG DISSIPATES LATER THIS MORNING, WE'LL BE LOOKING AT SOME PARTLY CLOUDY, WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
THE STRATUS FINALLY SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 50S.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TONIGHT WITH FLOW UPPER BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE CWA. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER NV WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING MORE WELL DEFINED. GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE PRONOUNCED THERMAL RIDGE KEEPING PRECIP WELL OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES AND DELAYED PRECIP CHANCES TO TUESDAY NIGHT OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
IT MAY END UP BEING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AS H850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A FEW DEGREES OVER THOSE OBSERVED TODAY.
Models aren't handling the low level moisture well but there is enough agreement amongst them that it looks likely that low stratus will form again late tonight.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT DID KEEP CLOUD COVER ON THE HIGH SIDE MOST AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY. AS CLOUDS MOVING TEMPERATURES WILL STABILIZE IN THE MID 30S NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN LOW. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND SPREAD RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING, REACHING THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE A LARGE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE SHORT TERM MODELS STILL FOCUS THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE WEST.
CLEARING TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
452 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
310 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CARIB. BOTH ON THE HIGHS AND WARM MIN'S. SLIGHT DRYING LOOKS TO OCCUR THU-FRI AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH SOME DRIER AIR COMING IN FROM THE ENE. POPS TREND UP SLIGHTLY AS MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG WITH THE HIGH BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES. GLOBAL MODELS DE-AMPLIFY THE TROUGH. SO NO SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTS ARE FORESEEN TO ENTER SOUTH FLORIDA AT THIS TIME.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEP TROF OVER THE FAR WRN CONUS WITH SW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. BROAD TROF RESIDES OVER THE CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES. UPPER TROF WILL WORK SLOWLY EWD. THIS BOUNDARY WILL DIVIDE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH AND WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH AND RESULT IN A NEARLY 20 DEGREE TEMP SPREAD ACROSS THE CWFA. ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS IN OUR FAR WRN ZONES FOR TONIGHT AS UPPER TROF INCHES CLOSER. CDFNT WILL CROSS THE CWFA AS NRN STREAM TROF MOVES THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES.
Any low clouds and fog will likely dissipate much quicker tomorrow morning than today as the higher low level winds spread eastward across the area.
swrly upper flow deepens in response to digging trough across the wrn states.
THERE IS A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U. THEN ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WITH A WEAK RIDGE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE 925/850 MB WIND MAXIMUM ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEAKENS AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WEAKENING THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE AREA OF STRATUS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE LOW BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATING LATE TONIGHT.
Upper flow over the central High Plains continues to become more southwesterly with time as an upper level trough deepens as it slowly moves into the western states. At the surface, low pressure will be deepening over eastern Wyoming into northeast Colorado today. Southerly flow to the east and southeast of the low will continue to pull low level moisture northward into Kansas. The low level moisture should mix out today with mainly clear and breezy to windy conditions expected.
330 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST COAST AND A WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE WEEK.
1254 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 THEN SLIDE EAST LATER THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
A SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM ERN CO SWD THROUGH ERN NM WILL CAUSE S TO SW WINDS TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BY MID TO LATE MORNING TUESDAY. A SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM ERN CO SWD THROUGH ERN NM WILL CAUSE S TO SW WINDS TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BY MID TO LATE MORNING TUESDAY. SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE AN EASTWARD TRACK ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY.
110 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT. FREEZING LEVELS INITIALLY AROUND 5000 FT MSL THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO 3000-4000 FT MSL TUESDAY. THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND INTO WYOMING ON TUESDAY. THE FURTHER NORTH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE GOES THE FURTHER NORTH THE MAIN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL. THUS TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE RANGE NOW (AROUND AN INCH).
1140 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST COAST AND A WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE WEEK.
COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING RANGED FROM THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S. BELIEVE SOME SUN WILL SHINE THROUGH ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S.
Tuesday night will be cooler. Widespread freezing temperatures are expected Tuesday night, and many areas that have yet to experience a killing frost will dip into the upper 20s or low 30s.
WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPING. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/WESTERN NEVADA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.
1246 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEK.
323 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEK.
This will keep min temperatures a bit warmer than this morning's lows, generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s. However, river valleys and other sheltered areas may see a period of calm winds after midnight, allowing temperatures to cool further into the low/mid 40s. Southerly winds will increase by mid/late morning in response to surface pressure falls over the High Plains. We'll see warm temperatures once again, with afternoon highs in the lower 80s.
THE MAIN DRIVER FOR THE WEATHER TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO A PLANETARY SCALE RIDGING EPISODE. IMPRESSIVE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA TODAY. WHICH WILL ALLOW AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. WILL CONTINUE TO SKEW THE FORECAST TOWARD SUNNIER/WARMER SIDE.
322 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 Upper pattern becoming more amplified overnight with western ConUS trough deepening and downstream ridging over the Mississippi Valley.
DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 60 AT KAUS AND NIGHT TIME LOWS ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 50S. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING OVER WEST TEXAS. THERE WAS ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL DIG TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TURNING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER TEXAS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
BAROCLINIC ZONE CONTINUES ACROSS THE FA SO WILL AGAIN SEE A RESPECTABLE THERMAL GRADIENT WITH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOLAR/WARMER COLUMN ACROSS THE SOUTH. ARC OF PCPN AROUND THE LOW REMAINS TO OUR NORTH SO MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST. ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT BISECTS MN FROM N-S WITH 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS LIFTING INTO THE SE.
DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUED OVER THE AREA WITH STEAMY SFC TEMPS AND DEW PTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. A BAND OF BROKEN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED TSTORMS WAS TRAINING INLAND FROM APALACHEE BAY ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY TROUGH AXIS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RETROGRADE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH WED. IN THE LOWER LEVELS THE QUASI- STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE LINGERS ACROSS OUR SE GA ZONES TODAY WITH WAVES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS CONTINUING TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. PRECIP WILL FADE INLAND GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT AS THE QUASI- STATIONARY TROUGH AXIS BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS INLAND. MENTIONED ONLY SHOWERS DUE TO STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUPPRESSING TSTORM POTENTIAL.
1110 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015 AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEK.
Tried to use a safe approach, milder east cooler west. The RAP/HRRR is very cool and keeps highs down closer to 60 or lower 60s where guidance is considerably warmer (low to mid 70s area wide). Low confidence call at this point as it could be cooler. All depends on the low clouds.
DRIER AND WARMER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. The low pressure area will remain just east of the state and will continue to bring some showers to the mountains on Tuesday into Wednesday morning before finally ending. High pressure will continue over the area On Wednesday with breezy northerly winds.
EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY CLOUDS WILL START MOVING IN BUT WE SHOULD STILL GET INTO THE LOWER 70S.
1244 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WILL WEAKEN IN GEORGIA OVERNIGHT. A PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTHWESTWARD AND GET INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS INDICATED BY SOME OF THE MODELS. WEDGE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTH.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/NEVADA BORDER WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA BORDER ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS STREAMER SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND THEN GROW UPSCALE WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL IMPULSE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP TODAY WITH 3 PM READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY FURTHER BACKING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER WEST TEXAS TO S-SW. WE ARE LOOKING FOR A SEASONABLY MILD NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
404 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE WEDGE CONDITIONS LINGERING WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTH.
SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES CLEARING REMAINING LONGEST ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR AND EVENTUALLY RESULTING IN SOME FOG FORMATION AGAIN LATER ALONG THE CLOUDY/CLEAR EDGE (MUCH LIKE EARLY THIS MORNING). FOR THESE REASONS MAY MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR LATER TONIGHT AND LET EVENING SHIFT MONITOR. THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND THU KEEPING CONFIDENCE ON THE LOWER SIDE. FOR NOW KEPT PCPN CHANCES ON THE LOWER SIDE.
1109 PM EST MON NOV 2 2015 AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEK.