Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
238 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021 19Z water vapor imagery shows an upper level ridging over Saskatchewan with low pressure systems west, east and south of the upper high. At the surface, high pressure was seen building south through the plains with a cold front pushing through east TX and AR.
Convection just started to increase in intensity as it exited our far northwest AR, and still have a weaker band of showers along the cold front across southeast OK.
149 PM MDT Sun May 9 2021 The upper low continues to weaken as it crosses the region from west to east. At the surface, high pressure extends from northwestern into south central South Dakota. Steep mid-level lapse rates exist to the southwest of the upper low, due to cold advection aloft, which combined with diurnal heating has lead to the development of scattered to numerous showers, and a few thunderstorms. The showers will taper off this evening as the instability decreases with the end of diurnal heating and with the weakening of the upper low.
257 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021 Cold front has pushed south of the forecast area with a stratus deck remaining in place in its wake with the exception of a narrow zone near the Red River where clouds remains scattered. Instability will remain limited post- frontal with afternoon temps remaining in the low/mid 60s area-wide.
Nearly flat ridging resides aloft the Gulf of Mexico region as western Atlantic high pressure stretches westward across FL. The highest coverage is expected well inland.
233 PM MDT Sun May 9 2021 Broad low amplitude upper level trough with embedded short waves dominated the North-Central CONUS. Snow levels will fall below 6000 feet overnight into Monday morning as cold air aloft as the upper trough deepens to the west.
An accompanying cold front will drift into north GA late tonight. as the cold front gradually sinks into central GA.
Ridge of High Pressure moves in for Monday and dries us out and we begin a warming trend.
An upper-level trough will move into the Intermountain West late Monday and a few disturbances will move through the area.
232 PM MDT Sun May 9 2021 Cloud cover has continued to increase over the western slope this Sunday afternoon ahead of a broad trough moving in from the northern Rockies. Light snow is expected to break out in the higher elevations through the morning and early afternoon hours. Farther west, a more convective nature to precipitation is expected across the higher terrain of eastern Utah as well as far western Colorado.
238 PM MDT Sun May 9 2021 Complex flow pattern over our region today with upper low circulation from Great Falls to Alzada, and surface winds turning N/NE as front backdoors into our CWA.
253 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021 A cold front bisecting the region this afternoon has made quicker progress through the area than initially anticipated. Northwest winds are ushering in much cooler temperatures with 2 PM temperatures only in the low to mid 50s across the northwest half of the cwa. Temperatures will be much cooler tonight, down into the lower half of the 40s for most of us. Highs on Monday will be in the lower half of the 60s. Overnight lows Monday night look to be a couple of degrees warmer than tonight.
Steep lapse rates along with enhanced convergence near the low was resulting in scattered precip returns showing up on radar, however, have yet to see any ground truth in the obs. Less certain on forecast lows here, but for the rest of the area there should be enough clearing for temps to fall to near to below freezing. This resulted in forecast lows ranging from the low to middle 20s in the Northwoods, to the low to middle 30s across the Fox Valley and east- central WI. Meanwhile, CAA will lead to slightly cooler Max Ts tomorrow, ranging from the upper 40s near the U. border and in the low to middle 50s elsewhere.
255 PM EDT Sun May 9 2021 Broad troughing extending from the Great Lakes to the Canadian maritimes will continue through this period. The associated upper level low is currently near James Bay and through this period, the low is progged to dip southward to just east of Lake Superior by tomorrow afternoon as ridging to the west over central Canada expands over the top of the low. With our forecast area remaining under the influence of this low, expecting more of the same for the remainder of the afternoon and tomorrow. The traditional colder spots could dip into the low 20s.
648 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021 Cooler than normal but overall pleasant conditions in place for mom this afternoon. most concentrated across west-central into central WI where a mid-level trough and surface convergent boundary was in place. Bigger picture water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showing the area is on the southern periphery of deep mid-level low over Ontario Canada, keeping cooler than normal airmass in place. For tonight, models indicating another mid-level trough /PV- advection passing through the area for some lingering cloud cover mainly south of I-94.
Chambers Complex flow pattern over our region today with upper low circulation from Great Falls to Alzada, and surface winds turning N/NE as front backdoors into our CWA.
A cold front bisecting the region this afternoon has made quicker progress through the area than initially anticipated. Northwest winds are ushering in much cooler temperatures with 2 PM temperatures only in the low to mid 50s across the northwest half of the cwa. Temperatures will be much cooler tonight, down into the lower half of the 40s for most of us. Highs on Monday will be in the lower half of the 60s. Overnight lows Monday night look to be a couple of degrees warmer than tonight.
618 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021 A cold front has cleared the area early this afternoon. Given the low level northerly flow, it tends to be difficult to clear out low stratus in these situations, therefore cloud cover will likely stick around for most of the night.
Pfahler A strong cold front has pushed southeast of our forecast area this afternoon with only a few showers left across parts of southeast MO.
536 PM MDT Sun May 9 2021 The upper low continues to weaken as it crosses the region from west to east. At the surface, high pressure extends from northwestern into south central South Dakota. Steep mid-level lapse rates exist to the southwest of the upper low, due to cold advection aloft, which combined with diurnal heating has lead to the development of scattered to numerous showers, and a few thunderstorms. The showers will taper off this evening as the instability decreases with the end of diurnal heating and with the weakening of the upper low.
623 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021 Severe Thunderstorm Watch 160 has been issued until 06Z or 1 am CDT for mainly the northern zones, covering areas mainly north of the Highway 190 corridor. /issued 339 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021/ A late season cold front is expected to reach our northern zones later today and become stationary over gulf coast states.
All of this activity is preceding a cold front, which is approaching the MS River from the west. These storms overall should continue to gradually weaken and move SE of the cntrl TN Valley heading into the overnight hrs, as the cold front begins to move ewd across the region. Any cooler air behind the front will probably not spread into the area until late tonight, as lows fall into the mid/upper 50s for most spots. The cold front will stall to our south on Monday as the mid level flow pattern becomes remains zonal.
538 PM MDT Sun May 9 2021 Broad low amplitude upper level trough with embedded short waves dominated the North-Central CONUS. Snow levels will fall below 6000 feet overnight into Monday morning as cold air aloft as the upper trough deepens to the west.
720 PM EDT Sun May 9 2021 Low pressure and a cold front will move east of the area by early this evening. High pressure will then build into the region through mid week. Low pressure and a cold front are tracking across the area and will move off to the east by early evening. In the wake of the low, north winds will gust into the evening and then diminish quite a bit. As high pressure starts to build, expect clouds to decrease. High pressure centered over the northern Plains will continue to ridge southeast into the region through the period with a reenforcement of cool, dry air.
We continue to sit between troughing to our east and building high pressure off the coast. A short wave trough passing just to the east of the Sierra crest is bringing a few high clouds the area, otherwise most sunny skies. Combined with the low RH, red flag conditions will persist.
That wave will move out to the southeast this evening, and a offshore long wave ridge will build in more strongly behind it. A thermal trough will develop near the coast, and a warming and drying trend will commence over the area.
828 PM EDT Sun May 9 2021 Broad troughing extending from the Great Lakes to the Canadian maritimes will continue through this period. The associated upper level low is currently near James Bay and through this period, the low is progged to dip southward to just east of Lake Superior by tomorrow afternoon as ridging to the west over central Canada expands over the top of the low. With our forecast area remaining under the influence of this low, expecting more of the same for the remainder of the afternoon and tomorrow. The traditional colder spots could dip into the low 20s.
932 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021 (Issued 932 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021) Surface observations and satellite imagery showed the presence of a weak low pressure system over southwestern WI this evening. Temperatures tonight will be a bit of a question as scattered clouds tied to the low may allow for enough clearing for some sites to drop a bit quicker. Afternoon clouds Monday will clear in the evening and allow temperatures to drop overnight into the low to mid 30s.
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period and beyond as high pressure will build in through the week.
/Issued 257 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021/ Cold front has pushed south of the forecast area with a stratus deck remaining in place in its wake with the exception of a narrow zone near the Red River where clouds remains scattered. Instability will remain limited post- frontal with afternoon temps remaining in the low/mid 60s area-wide.
High temperatures on Monday will be 1 to 2 degrees warmer than Sunday.
Cold front continues to sag slowly south across the I-10 corridor and the Hill Country. Plenty of instablity available (CAPE values at or above 3000 j/kg), especially along and just north of the front and ahead of the dryline where the low level moisture is maximized. Isolated strong storms this afternoon across the far east, with A cold front has pushed southward across the northern half of the forecast area today. (Monday night through next Sunday) Expect a wet and cool period for early this week due to lift over a cold front to our south and mid to upper level ascent over our area.
19Z water vapor imagery shows an upper level ridging over Saskatchewan with low pressure systems west, east and south of the upper high. At the surface, high pressure was seen building south through the plains with a cold front pushing through east TX and AR.
650 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021 A strong cold front has pushed southeast of our forecast area this afternoon with only a few showers left across parts of southeast MO.
High pressure will gradually shift over the region through midweek and result in mainly dry weather and warming temperatures.
617 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021 Updated for 00Z aviation discussion 00Z TAF discussion: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over the area through much of the period as a cold front slowly pushes through the region. /GG/ A cold front is still off to the nw and slowing down from prev forecast approach. The cold front should be invof SE AR and the northern part of the forecast area towards sunset as the lifting mechanism shifts to the leading edge of the advancing airmass. the next round of storms will potentially see a higher risk/potential headlines depending on location of the highest rainfall today/where the front slows.
718 PM EDT Sun May 9 2021 SE MI remains between low pressure exiting the Ohio valley tonight and high pressure building southward from Canada into the upper Midwest during Monday.
Cold front is now through the Nashville metro area, with a decent amount of convection along it, mostly south of the I-40 corridor. Incoming cold front will spread SHRA/TSRA to all terminals between 02z and 07z or so, with at least VCSH continuing through much of the overnight period. Could see brief MVFR categories with convection along the cold front, mainly for KTYS and KCHA. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 72 52 72 51 / 70 50 20 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 67 49 69 48 / 80 50 20 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 58 67 48 70 48 / 80 50 20 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 66 45 67 43 / 70 50 20 10 20.
Cold front stretches from near Ozona to just south of Sonora and Junction and continues south. Cold front continues to sag slowly south across the I-10 corridor and the Hill Country. Plenty of instability available (CAPE values at or above 3000 j/kg), especially along and just north of the front and ahead of the dryline where the low level moisture is maximized. Isolated strong storms this afternoon across the far east, with A cold front has pushed southward across the northern half of the forecast area today. (Monday night through next Sunday) Expect a wet and cool period for early this week due to lift over a cold front to our south and mid to upper level ascent over our area.
/issued 202 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021/ Our trough from yesterday has moved off to the NE and now all eyes are on the cold front that's making it's way through the region. Right now the front is stalled just north of the Pecos River, with cooler temperatures and NE winds behind. If this front is able to stay SW of the Permian Basin this afternoon, highs will be cooler today with 80s across the Basin and 90s along the Pecos.
A brush by cold front will then bring breezy north winds to the region tonight into Monday.
1029 PM EDT Sun May 9 2021 Currently - An Atlantic ridge extends a fairly narrow ridge westwards across Central Florida. The lower to mid level ridge is stacked above the surface and this evenings sounding indicated substantial dry air above ~975 mb with a decent low level inversion. The more veered surface flow is steadily bringing in warmer and more humid air. Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to dominate Keys weather through the overnight period. Dew points will hover in the lower to mid 70s. As is often the case, forecast soundings indicate the lower level inhibition weakening late in the night. A ridge across Central Florida is responsible for moderate to fresh east to southeast breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters.
221 PM PDT Sun May 9 2021 A trough of low pressure across the northern Rockies will maintain onshore flow with periods of gusty westerly winds over the mountains and deserts through Monday.
855 PM EDT Sun May 9 2021 High pressure will be in place across the area through mid-week. High pressure will be in place across the area from the Atlantic through mid-week.
555 PM MDT Sun May 9 2021 Cloud cover has continued to increase over the western slope this Sunday afternoon ahead of a broad trough moving in from the northern Rockies. Light snow is expected to break out in the higher elevations through the morning and early afternoon hours. Farther west, a more convective nature to precipitation is expected across the higher terrain of eastern Utah as well as far western Colorado.
Given the "so-so" scenario, I will carry the dry forecast but pass along the low chance to the incoming shift. Limiting factors though include some residual cloud cover and thus warmer temperatures than advertised. The aformentioned Canadian low finally exits through the day Tuesday as high pressure continues to build.
1157 PM EDT Sun May 9 2021 A low pressure center developed during the evening in the border region of MN/WI/IA/IL as a reflection of the wave aloft moving toward Lower MI. Deeper layer cold air advection then accompanies the arrival of the main upper trough axis Monday night and Tuesday. Morning lows will continue to flirt in the vicinity of/or just above freezing - so frost formation in play each morning assuming nocturnal skies remain clear.
The area of low pressure that brought the widespread precipitation will move off the coast this morning with strengthening CAA today. If the atmosphere never decouples, the breezy winds will limit the frost potential but if the atmosphere does decouple, widespread frost is likely isolated areas of freezing. With the freezing level so low, graupel is possible with any of the stronger showers in the afternoon along with an outside chance of some lightning. Upper trough will finish pivoting over the region with chilly temperatures during the midweek period. Potent wave, embedded within a larger upper trough, will continue to dip over the region Tuesday night with cold air advection and showers.
322 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021 High pressure builds in across the eastern forecast area today. The upper pattern features a decaying upper low with a high to the north. This decaying low will drift east, but at the surface, broad high pressure across the eastern CONUS will provide a fetch of cool, dry air.
Lows in the lower 30s are expected in most areas. High pressure moving into the region Tuesday will bring quiet weather and light winds.
An upper level trough is moving east across the plains early this morning. A drier air mass is in place but as the upper level trough moves east some sprinkles/light rain will occur, especially across extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri. Highs today will only warm into the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Lows tonight into Tuesday morning will once again fall into the upper 30s to the lower 40s.
A cold front will continue to slowly sink southward tonight. Low level wind fields gradually weaken over MS/AL overnight as the stronger dynamics associated with the low pressure system quickly lift northeast toward the Appalachians and Eastern Seaboard.
255 AM MDT Mon May 10 2021 Current surface map places high pressure across central Canada into then Northern Plains. Elongated upper trof located across the Rockies into the central plains will result in diurnal shower activity today and Tuesday. Thermal profiles support rain/snow mix for the higher elevations of the Black Hills.
1058 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021 Cooler than normal but overall pleasant conditions in place for mom this afternoon. most concentrated across west-central into central WI where a mid-level trough and surface convergent boundary was in place. Bigger picture water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showing the area is on the southern periphery of deep mid-level low over Ontario Canada, keeping cooler than normal airmass in place. For tonight, models indicating another mid-level trough /PV- advection passing through the area for some lingering cloud cover mainly south of I-94.
Upper low will sink southward over Idaho today before turning southeastward toward the central Rockies late tonight. Weak perturbations in the westerly flow ahead of the upper trof will ripple eastward across the area. This will be repeated late tonight into Tuesday as the main upper trof moves from the central Rockies across the area.
The lower ceilings should gradually lift to VFR and break up during the afternoon, but then reform and have a downward trend Monday night due to continued easterly low level flow. An upper-level trough will move into the Intermountain West late Monday and a few disturbances will move through the area.
Across the Lower Susq Valley, where very little if any rain has fallen, still expect a good chance for showers late this evening, as nose of low level jet lifts across the area. Residual low level moisture and upsloping flow could yield some lingering drizzle over the higher terrain of the Alleghenies until almost dawn. All areas should easily mix to at least 850mb, where ensemble mean temps of around 2C translate to expected highs from the mid 50s over the northwest mountains, to the mid 60s over the Lower Susq Valley.
317 AM EDT Mon May 10 2021 Broad troughing extending from the Great Lakes to the Canadian maritimes will continue through this period. The associated upper level low is currently near James Bay and through this period, the low is progged to dip southward to just east of Lake Superior by tomorrow afternoon as ridging to the west over central Canada expands over the top of the low. With our forecast area remaining under the influence of this low, expecting more of the same for the remainder of the afternoon and tomorrow. The traditional colder spots could dip into the low 20s.
Pieces of energy will rotate over the Northland this afternoon from a closed upper low over northwest Ontario. Additional pieces of energy will cross the region tonight through Tuesday as the closed low drops south into eastern Lake Superior Monday afternoon, before moving over New England Tuesday. Cool, dry Canada based high pressure will remain over the Northland at the surface.
303 AM EDT Mon May 10 2021 High pressure will result in dry conditions for much of the week. Dry conditions expected today with high pressure back in control.
Tuesday morning both GFS and RAP suggest 850MB moisture and warm air advection with warm front drifting north near OK/KS border.
206 AM MDT Mon May 10 2021 Upper low has split, with western portion over western MT and eastern trof moving rapidly across the northern plains. Blocking high over Saskatchewan means the evolution of the low in our area will be slow over the next couple days. Given the upper low and coldest air aloft to our west, upslope easterly winds, and dry advection in our east (afternoon dew points in the 20s).
333 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021 A nearly zonal flow was over the southern and central Plains with a trough across the northern Plains early this morning.
Behind this wave exiting into west central Indiana tonight, High pressure builds slowly into the western Great Lakes through mid-week. Reports of light fog are also flowing into the office this morning, and with temps in the mid 30s, could see the possibility of light freezing fog on elevated sfc's. This will be driven by the upper level Low pressure system just north of the Great Lakes. High pressure builds slowly across the region Tuesday, lingering throughout much of the week.
Warmer conditions and lighter winds arrive on Tuesday, lasting through the remainder of the week. Overnight, the trough over the northern US begins to dig south into the central Rockies. A trough positioned over the Intermountain West will continue to bring breezy to windy conditions with some elevated fire weather concerns Monday. The trough moves east of Arizona on Tuesday followed by high pressure taking hold of the weather pattern across the southwestern U.
Some of normally colder spots may locally drop to around freezing for a period late tonight. The area of low pressure responsible for all of today's rain has shifted into Ohio, taking the rain and thunderstorms with it. after some residual moisture accompanying another area of low pressure to the southwest of Indiana, the dry air will really overtake central Indiana.
Will monitor and amd depending on the wwd reach of the low stratus. /issued 202 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021/ Our trough from yesterday has moved off to the NE and now all eyes are on the cold front that's making it's way through the region. Right now the front is stalled just north of the Pecos River, with cooler temperatures and NE winds behind. If this front is able to stay SW of the Permian Basin this afternoon, highs will be cooler today with 80s across the Basin and 90s along the Pecos.
Tonight through Tuesday night: A flat upper ridge off the coast will slowly migrate east through Tuesday bringing a warming trend for the region.
High pressure will gradually shift over the region through midweek resulting in dry weather and warming temperatures.