Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 227 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018/ Closed upper low currently noted in wv imagery skirting across our srn areas, parallel to the nrn Gulf coastline, to continue ewd tonight. Models suggest that a few shwrs could accompany the low tonight/Saturday as it drifts ewd, with areas in its wake experiencing some light shwrs/drizzle. Sly sfc flow to continue increasing across our region through Saturday, as lee trof deepens ahead of an approaching upper trof over srn CA/NV.
Regardless, this region has seen numerous days of frost and sub-freezing temps recently so agriculture impacts should be lower. Thickening BKN/OVC cirrus clouds around 20k feet will fill in across the area by early morning ahead of an approaching upper level trough. High pressure to our north continues a prevailing E/NE wind through the weekend with no headlines expected.
526 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018 Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance Mostly sunny early this afternoon and finally above freezing area wide.
Temperatures have already hit the low to mid 50s across much of the area as of 300 PM, and similar if not slightly warmer temperatures are likely on Saturday. The one potential problem for getting much warmer than today is clouds.
329 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017 It looks like today will be warmer with more sun across the north. Wind speeds will stay on the lower end today into tonight.
238 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 Quiet and mild weather is expected today with a cold front expected to approach Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms possible during the afternoon.
252 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017 A relatively slow moving upper trough will swing across the area today into tonight. Ahead of the cold front MLCAPEs of around 500-750 J/kg may build this afternoon, especially over northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin. Weak high pressure beneath transient mid-level ridging should result in a mainly dry weather later tonight and Tuesday. Another upper level trough will begin ejecting across the central plains by Tuesday night. Strong moisture transport will occur ahead of the associated frontal cyclone with precipitable water values to 1.
Some semblance of an omega blocking pattern is in place across NOAM this morning with the eastern anchoring closed low still in the Hudson Bay region. a couple short waves of interest within the broader trough pattern. we will see increasing southerly flow/warm and moist advection ahead of the trough into the region. kicking surface dewpoints into the upper 50s/lower 60s with the higher dewpoints pooling across NE lower Michigan. freezing levels hovering around 10K FT and a bit of an inverted V look at the bottom of the soundings supportive of gusty winds. phasing short wave trough slated to cross through the region later this evening and overnight.
We know we have the forcing with the vort max moving over head, but what will be the trigger for convection with mean flow being a down sloping wind for the central Plains? Guessing the global models have it right with an axis of showers forming along the foothills and gliding northward through the late morning but given the uncertainty in the hi-res stuff we have kept 50 PoPs during the morning for Billings with increasing values to the south and west over the higher terrain. Temperatures will be significantly cooler than yesterday with low to mid 70s expected under thick cloud cover for most of the day.
High pressure is expected across the area for the next couple of days. Model data suggest heights will gradually build across the area over the next couple of days as upper ridging moves into the Ohio Valley. By the middle of the week, upper level disturbances will begin ejecting out of a western long wave trough through the Plains and towards the Great Lakes.
This evening's surface analysis showed a broad, weak trough across our forecast area, but the very weak pressure gradient was allowing the local surface winds to be dominated by the mesoscale, including sea breeze fronts and outflow boundaries. Relatively weak and zonal flow will prevail aloft through early week, with a broad trough axis draped across the lower Eastern Seaboard, through the Southeast.
An upper ridge will build over the region late in the week with warming temperatures. Weak upper troughiness to remain over the Mississippi Valley, with upper ridge axis just to our south. Expect the seabreeze to again be active and potentially impact the eastern Midlands so will keep the high chance pops that were inherited. Temperatures should be a bit warmer as 500mb heights begin to rise with max temperatures expected in the low to mid 90s. An upper trough will approach the region over the weekend along with a frontal boundary pushing into the area which will provide increased chances of rain and possibly slightly lower max temperatures due to increased clouds and rain.
A general southerly flow resides over the area as well with the region lying ahead of a lee-side trough again over the Front Range. which has to move eastward and will thus tap into the highly unstable airmass over the CWA. H5 ridging over the region during the day will temper any development of trw thru much the day. CWA will be downstream of a longwave trough through this period.
Issued by National Weather Service STATE COLLEGE PA 641 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 An upper level trough will swing through the region tonight into Tuesday. High pressure will briefly build southeast into the area for midweek. However, low pressure over the Great Lakes will likely track east across New York state by late in the week. High pressure over the region will result in fair and tranquil weather early this morning. As high pressure passes east of the area later today, a southerly low-level flow will bring an expanding cumulus field into at least our Finger Lakes zones of CNY. This will also keep overnight lows a little warmer as they will be mostly in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Scattered showers are occurring across mainly the eastern half of our area, with the higher coverage behind the outflow boundary.
A cold front will move into northern Utah today then stall across central Utah tomorrow.
347 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017 An upper level short wave with a closed mid level circulation, will cross Minnesota this morning, and then into northwest Wisconsin this afternoon as the mid level circulation opens into a trof. Elsewhere, upper level and surface ridging are arriving from the west with a clearing sky. As the high settles overhead late tonight, expect fog to develop and affect much of the region and linger until 14Z/9am Tuesday. A dry day is expected Tuesday as the ridging remains over the area. The models are trying to flatten the upper ridge in the afternoon with an approaching short wave trof.
1020 PM PDT Sun Aug 13 2017 The latest water vapor satellite pictures show a short wave pushing through western Oregon as the large upper level low pressure system moves into British Columbia.
357 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017 An area of low clouds/fog has expanded out from behind the slow moving low pressure system that has now migrated into Minnesota. Today we will see a low amplitude ridge build across the northern plains, with the ridge axis west river this morning, moving across the CWA today into Minnesota tonight. Isentropic upglide develops in the wake of ridge axis passage, but we retain a dry east/northeast low level regime, and NAM/GFS BUFKIT soundings support this will lead to mainly mid/high clouds and not result in any precipitation today. Southwest flow aloft becomes more established for Tuesday, with a plume of higher dewpoint air into south central South Dakota, with a low tracking towards the northeast CWA with a well defined warm front between highway 212/interstate 90.
A trough of low pressure moving across northern California Monday will result in brief cooling early in the work week. A gradual warming trend is then forecast from Tuesday through the end of the week as a ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific builds over California.
Deep southerly/southwesterly flow will continue today on the southside of a mid level trough and to the west of strengthening mid level high just of the Florida east coast.
A weak frontal boundary was noted over central AR, with a weak high pressure to the northeast of AR. A bit warm and more moisture air was south of the boundary, while a bit cooler to the north. A bit warmer Tuesday with highs in the 80s to some around 90 degrees.
441 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017 Today through tonight: Broad mid-level troughing continues over the ArkLaMiss, along with a weak frontal boundary that extends across the northern portion of the area. This boundary will continue to be the focus of the bulk of thunderstorm development today, generally along the Highway 82 corridor. High temperatures will range from the mid 80s in the north to the low 90s in south this afternoon.
Weak and rather diffuse surface boundary extended from low pressure over southwest Minnesota into northern Nebraska at 07Z. An upper level trough from Minnesota into northeast Nebraska was also helping to support the convection. The showers and thunderstorms are expected to diminish through the morning as the upper trough moves east of the area, but redevelop by late afternoon and evening as instability increases along the boundary and low level jet picks up for a time this evening.
Temperatures will peak by the end of the week followed by cooler and breezy weather for the upcoming weekend. Tonight through Tuesday: The cold front that brought rain to region has moved into Montana and clouds will continue to decrease through the evening. Models are still keeping a few hundreds Cape values in Northeastern WA and Northern ID for tonight and Monday afternoon as a trof in Canada digs south into the region.
Quite a bit of alto cu across the Mid South this morning and could be around until mid day into the afternoon when there should be some more convection associated with another upper level trough moving slowly east toward the Southern Appalachians.
/Issued 228 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017/ The flow in the mid and upper levels will become a little more northwesterly in the wake of a short wave trough moving through the western Great Lakes this afternoon. Localized flooding will also be possible as these storms may be efficient rain producers given all of the low level moisture.
614 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 High pressure will slide south of the region today into tonight. A cold front will approach on Tuesday and cross the area Tuesday night.
316 AM PDT Mon Aug 14 2017 A trough of low pressure over the western states will bring stronger onshore flow.
1231 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017 Another quiet night expected across the area as weak high pressure slowly drifts off to our east by morning. The high will be off to our east on Monday as a weak frontal system, currently along and just west of the Missouri River this evening, shifts east into eastern Iowa northeast through central Wisconsin by Monday afternoon. Temperatures will continue to inch back close to where they should be Monday afternoon as readings rise into the low to mid 80. High pressure is keeping mild and quiet weather in place for the weekend in the Midwest. The highs are mainly in the upper 70s/near 80 yet again today with fair weather cumulus clouds. Overnight, light and mostly easterly winds as the ridge remains anchored in the region.
Until then, another round of convection is expected with coverage looking best for the northern half of Utah and Colorado thanks to an approaching cold front. The highest terrain will see convection first with a few drifting into adjacent valleys.
246 AM PDT Mon Aug 14 2017 Weak low pressure will produce cooler temperatures Monday with a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms in northeast California and northwest Nevada.
626 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 Quiet and mild weather is expected today with a cold front expected to approach Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms possible during the afternoon.
GFS and ECMWF are advancing the notion of an upper trough over the West, which may trigger showers/thunderstorms. Humidities will remain elevated today with cooler than normal temperatures. Drier and warmer conditions are expected on Tuesday though a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible mainly along the WY border and Divide.
However, even if we do scale back POPs, there should be enough cloud cover for most of the day to limit max temps to the lower 80s across most of the area.
Disturbance will move across eastern Colorado during the day with a lee trough developing over the plains. Main challenge will be timing of the system and location of the lee trough during the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the lee trough, CAPEs will be over 1500 J/kg with sufficient shear for severe weather. Current model solutions has the higher instability mostly in Kansas, agreeing with the SPC day 2 outlook.
Latest suite of satellite imagery shows a mid/upper level low circulating over southeast ND, with one last 500mb-300mb vorticity lobe swinging into the James River Valley this afternoon. For tonight, dry weather will commence as a mid/upper level ridge transitory ridge shifts from eastern MT into western ND by 12z Monday.
133 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 High pressure centered over the forecast area will slide east and move off the Mid Atlantic Coast Tuesday.
459 AM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017 Upper level analysis has low amplitude pattern across the CONUS with a trof across the east and west, and weak ridge crossing the northern Plains. At the surface, weak low pressure resides across eastern MT with frontal boundary to the west and south of the area.
316 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 High pressure drifts across the region today. A cold front approaches from the north Tuesday before dissipating Tuesday night.
Overall, a dry day expected Tuesday with breezy south winds and warmer temperatures as southwest flow develops across central/southern Plains.
Better chances for deep moist convection should arrive on Wed when a more robust mid/upper trough emerges from the central Rockies. Main Aviation Hazard: Stratus potential Most or all of the convection occurring over the high Plains late this evening is expected to remain to the west/northwest of central Kansas.
421 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 Weak high pressure is forecast to keep mainly dry weather over the region today through Tuesday.
Otherwise, high pressure will continue to extend across the region into Tuesday.
Most of the period should be in the more convectively active pattern with higher PWATs and cooler 500mb temps. As the mid level ridge builds into the region through the remainder of the week, expect typical diurnal convection. Looking closer to the surface, troughing will develop across central GA with a strengthening Bermuda High by mid/late week. Also we anticipate a bit more activity corresponding to the orographic effects in the higher terrain.
310 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 Weak high pressure will exist across the North Country today with no precipitation expected. Eventually deeper moisture will move into the region tonight and especially on Tuesday as a trough of low pressure drops down from Canada.
143 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 High pressure will move slowly east over the next couple of days providing fair weather.
Increased cloud cover and rain should limit high temperatures to the lower and middle 80s this afternoon.
Upper level ridge currently just east of the Rockies will edge eastward through mid week.
348 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 A series of weak low pressure systems will track along a stationary located near the Virginia North Carolina border through Tuesday night.
643 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 A series of weak low pressure systems will track along a stationary located near the Virginia North Carolina border through Tuesday night.
416 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 One more day of fair weather is expected in our area today as high pressure moves slowly east from the Great Lakes. Low pressure over southern Minnesota this morning will move east across southern Michigan on Tuesday with a trailing frontal boundary dropping south into Indiana and Ohio, possibly causing a few showers or thunderstorms.
301 AM PDT Mon Aug 14 2017 Cooler early this week, then warming back to near or slightly above average around mid-week. Lots of high clouds moving over interior NorCal early this morning as the upper trough moves onto the West Coast. The trough will continue to deepen over the region into early Tuesday resulting in the coolest weather in over a month early this week.
A band of weak showers could clip the extreme north early this morning as a weak 700 mb trough moves across North Texas. With slightly higher moisture nearby and slightly cooler 850 temps, feel daytime high temps might be a degree or two cooler today, especially areas closer to the coast. Would not be surprised if lows remain in the lower 80s.
An upper ridge will build over the region late in the week with warming temperatures. Weak upper troughiness to remain over the Mississippi Valley, with upper ridge axis just to our south. Biggest issue with these showers and storms will continue to be the threat for brief heavy rainfall, especially with the training storms and the high moisture content in the air.
Weak high pressure will hold over the area through mid week. Surface analysis shows high pressure centered over PA while a frontal boundary has become stationary over the Carolinas. That said - the best chances of precipitation in the LWX forecast area will be in central VA/the Highlands. Highs today will be in the lower 80s. Lows mainly in the upper 60s, except warmer in the cities/along the Bay. Highs in the lower to mid 80s.
410 AM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017 Upper level analysis has low amplitude pattern across the CONUS with a trof across the east and west, and weak ridge crossing the northern Plains. At the surface, weak low pressure resides across eastern MT with frontal boundary to the west and south of the area.
354 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 High pressure will remain across the Great Lakes and Ohio valley region today and tonight.
Cold front will sweep across northern and central Nevada today. Showers with embedded isolated thunderstorms will accompany the cold front, and temperatures will be noticeably cooler.
643 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 One more day of fair weather is expected in our area today as high pressure moves slowly east from the Great Lakes. Low pressure over southern Minnesota this morning will move east across southern Michigan on Tuesday with a trailing frontal boundary dropping south into Indiana and Ohio, possibly causing a few showers or thunderstorms.
634 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 High pressure will remain across the Great Lakes and Ohio valley region today and tonight.
Cyclonic flow with the 500 mb trough axis overhead will keep clouds in place through much of the day, although some clearing is possible this afternoon from west central to south central MN with the trough beginning to lift out of those areas late. Although unlikely, the only concern will be whether 10 kt winds aloft help keep the high RH in the boundary layer more in the form of stratus.
246 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 A series of weak low pressure systems will track along a stationary located near the Virginia North Carolina border through Tuesday night.
High confidence that VFR will prevail over the next 24 hours due to high pressure aloft and a relatively dry atmospheric column. /issued 256 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday night): Morning sounding showed all moisture is trapped in the lowest 3000 feet, and this is corroborated by all 12 or 13 clouds that have formed in the region today. H5 ridge will vary little across the area during the next 36 hours, keeping cloud cover to a minimum and keeping temperatures above normal.
The lowest ceilings, with areas of fog and dense in some spots, will be seen in areas that rain has fallen.
327 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 High pressure will slide south of the region today into tonight. A cold front will approach on Tuesday and cross the area Tuesday night.
A cold front moved through the forecast area yesterday, and looking at the 24 hour changes in terms of observations, the main element that sticks out is relative humidity.
535 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 Mostly quiet conditions this morning across the Florida Keys, with the KBYX radar mostly void of echos overnight, however over the last hour a few light showers riding along preexisting boundaries have sparked across the Gulf waters well north of the Lower Keys. Temperatures this morning are hovering in the low to middle 80s, with sultry dewpoints in the upper 70s. Weak ridging will remain in place over the Keys and South Florida today, delivering light south southeasterly winds. The Western Atlantic ridge of high pressure will strengthen Tuesday across the southern portion of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys. Temperatures as a result will continue to run a bit above normal, highs topping out in the lower 90s, and lows in the low to mid 80s.
120 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 The area will remain situated between an inland trough and Atlantic high pressure through the week.
1122 PM MDT Sun Aug 13 2017 As a Pacific low pressure trough over British Columbia, the Pacific Northwest and Northern California moves east into the Northern Rockies and Great Basin, west southwest flow aloft will increase across the area bringing pacific moisture and scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area tonight and Monday. Tuesday the trough will pass through the area with continued showers and thunderstorms with colder temperatures as a cold front sweeps south and east.
An area of low pressure, along with an upper level trough continues to impact the region with mostly cloudy skies and isolated thunderstorms. Upper level ridging will build into the region on Monday with mostly dry conditions expected. After Tuesday's system, pattern looks favorable for some warmer temps to move into area, along with periodic chances of afternoon and evening storms.
210 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 High pressure from the Ohio Valley will build across the region tonight.
Issued by National Weather Service STATE COLLEGE PA 203 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 An upper level trough will swing through the region tonight into Tuesday. High pressure will briefly build southeast into the area for midweek. However, low pressure over the Great Lakes will likely track east across New York state by late in the week. High pressure over the region will result in fair and tranquil weather early this morning. As high pressure passes east of the area later today, a southerly low-level flow will bring an expanding cumulus field into at least our Finger Lakes zones of CNY. This will also keep overnight lows a little warmer as they will be mostly in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Some potential for convective showers over the southern zones ahead of the front, and these could produce rain or freezing rain in the afternoon.
Southerly winds will bring warmer temperatures into the area today with highs reaching the upper 20s and lower 30s.
Currently, there is an upper level split flow, with a trough extending from California northeastward to the Dakotas, while an upper level ridge builds into the Canadian Rockies. At the surface, arctic high pressure had exited the Northern Plains, and was now situated over the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile a surface warm front extended from a low over north central Canada across Saskatchewan/Alberta into western Montana.
238 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2018 Warmer and wet weather will return through the week before a brief cool down to start the weekend. However, weak convergence in the lower levels along the fascia of terrain may favor some light rain development near and just west of the terrain. Further warm advection into the overnight hours looks to also allow temperature to remain far warmer than in recent nights.