Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
530 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017 Large MCS continues to sink into the lower Mississippi Valley with cirrus blowoff extending northward, although cloud tops are warming over our area and some thinning is taking place over the far northern CWA. As the low lifts northeast and the upper wave approaches, CAPE's over the eastern CWA are progged to reach 1000-1500 J/kg by midday, enough to trigger some scattered showers and storms. Upper low currently near Lake Winnipeg will slowly wobble southeast and east into mid week, keeping the Midwest in a cooler weather pattern. By late in the week, model discrepancies lead to some uncertainties, as the GFS and Canadian models bring down another upper low into the same area, while the ECMWF is warmer with the low staying north of the Great Lakes.
417 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017 A deep layer ridge will be across central Fl and then move offshore tonight.
324 AM MDT Sun May 28 2017 An upper level ridge of high pressure currently over the Pacific Northwest will slowly move eastward over the next few days.
/issued 247 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017/ Positively tilted upper trof and associated cold front moving across the Southern Plains this morning responsible for ongoing line of storms along the Red River of TX/OK into central AR. Presence of outflow along with the advancement of the cold front and daytime heating will allow for storms to redevelop in the I-20 corridor this aftn. Front will stall by this evening, as the embedded trof lifts newd away from our region. Approaching upper trof and associated cold front during the weekend will bring additional chances for rain.
Synoptic Setup: A trough runs from the Northwest territories down through the Canadian Prairies and into the eastern Dakotas and Upper Mississippi Valley. A ridge runs upward through the Intermountain west into the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. So, have shrink-stretched the lowest points down further to below 20 percent. Winds were also switched from the typical Super/ConsShort to ConsMOS in order to capture the higher winds in a well mixed atmosphere.
424 AM MDT Sun May 28 2017 Upper trough shifting from Colorado into the central plains early this morning, while surface cold front has raced well south out of Colorado and into wrn TX.
453 AM MDT Sun May 28 2017 Closed low over southern Canada will continue to support unsettled weather today as yet another impulse will advect through the region. However, forecast models continue to vary sig on exact details per the evolution/progression of upper level flow given blocking potential over much of Canada.
Lows tonight will continue warmer than average, in the mid to upper 60s with a lingering slight chance overnight given the approaching front from the NW. A cold front is forecast to push into the region Monday and Monday evening. Closed low will move slowly east across SE Canada and NE U. Central NC will find itself near the base of the associated upper trough and accompanying strong belt of westerlies extending south into the region. A chance of showers/thunderstorms will continue through 09z-12z as the new line of storms emerges off the Blue Ridge shortly.
Temperatures will be a tad cooler Monday with a much shallower unstable layer.
The forecast area will continue to be influenced one more day by a slow moving upper low over the northern Great Lakes. Cyclonic flow associated with the low combined with a high pressure ridge axis over the Pacific northwest will result in a continued northwest flow aloft across our area today. Temperatures will be slightly cooler today especially across the eastern areas toward the Dakota border due to a weak backdoor front that slides into the area. However, temperatures will still be above normal for this time of year with readings in the lower 70s. High pressure ridging over the Pacific northwest shifts further east on Monday as the upper low over the Great Lakes begins to lose its grip over the eastern half of Montana.
319 AM MDT Sun May 28 2017 GOES-R water vapor loop depicted a well-defined circulation moving across northern MN, with a trailing trough axis southwestward through central NE, northwest KS and into southwest CO. The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model develops widely scattered convection across the high plains and mountains this afternoon. High temperatures this afternoon will be 5-10 degrees warmer with highs in the 60s-low 70s outside the mountains. It will be a tad cooler Monday, mainly over the plains, with highs in the 60s to around 70.
207 AM MDT Sun May 28 2017 Closed low over southern Canada will continue to support unsettled weather today as yet another impulse will advect through the region. However, forecast models continue to vary sig on exact details per the evolution/progression of upper level flow given blocking potential over much of Canada.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): Little change from yesterday expected during the day today as 500 mb ridging over the Gulf of Mexico shifts northeast through the day. The next cold front pushing across Texas will make decent headway today, making it into central Texas, but likely not making it as far south as the ranchlands. Highs today will be a degree or two cooler than yesterday as the 500 mb ridge shifts northeastward, but nonetheless still hot, with temperatures in the mid 90s east to around the century mark out west. Flash flood guidance remains on the high side, with widespread flooding not anticipated at this time.
239 AM PDT Sun May 28 2017 High pressure continues building over the Inland Northwest early this week.
/issued 247 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017/ Positively tilted upper trof and associated cold front moving across the Southern Plains this morning responsible for ongoing line of storms along the Red River of TX/OK into central AR. Presence of outflow along with the advancement of the cold front and daytime heating will allow for storms to redevelop in the I-20 corridor this aftn. Front will stall by this evening, as the embedded trof lifts newd away from our region. Approaching upper trof and associated cold front during the weekend will bring additional chances for rain. Aloft we are SW 25-55KTS in the low levels on our VAD. MVFR stratus will meet convection from the N before daybreak with a cold front on approach, widespread shwrs/tstms from 09-15Z will decay. The cold front will move closer but not through until Sunday night.
506 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017 A deep layer ridge will be across central Fl and then move offshore tonight.
125 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017 High pressure will slide south of the region overnight. A cold front will move into the area Sunday and stall. The front will return northward Monday as a warm front. The rest of the CWA was averaging the low to mid 40s. H5 ridge progged to be acrs the CWA on Memorial Day. Outside of mocldy skies and cool temps may not see much in the way of rain on Monday as guidance conts build H5 ridge drg the aftn. By 00z Tue ridging begins to break down as H5 low digs thru Ontario with lead s/wv and waa along wmfnt resulting in lgt rain. Maxes wl be svrl degrees warmer compared to Mon but still well blo normal.
143 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017 Crossing low pressure will return areawide rain for Sunday and early Monday. The system cold front is projected across the ridges by daybreak Monday, hence the majority of the days looks dry under briefly building high pressure.
High pressure will work its way into the Ozarks through this morning and be in control of the area's weather through tonight.
A cold front continues to shift southward this evening and has already passed through KGAG/KWWR/KPNC/KCSM. The cold front will pass through all terminals tonight. As the cold front shifts southward, thunderstorms could impact KOKC and KOUN this evening. There could be a brief period of MVFR ceilings behind the cold front. Also, a tornado risk will exist, if a storm can either develop in an area of backed/stronger surface winds, or with the extreme instability that exists, can locally enhance the low level helicity/shear. Elsewhere, storms may then try to develop south and west along an advancing cold front from Missouri southwest along the I-44 corridor. However, by late evening, the models do develop storms along the cold front across southern Oklahoma. Some risk of severe may exist from day to day, but expect it to remain on the lower/marginal category.
Potent upper low will be located over MN/WI by this evening with trough extending back into the Plains states. The associated cold front will stretch southwestward back across Texas.
A large ridge of high pressure will provide dry and increasingly warmer temperatures to the Great Basin for the remainder of the Memorial Day weekend.
However, moisture increasing along the New Mexico border on Monday will provide a slight chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorm development in the higher terrain along the eastern periphery of the state.
High pressure will continue to build over the southwest United States for the Memorial Day Weekend with warmer temperatures, light winds and a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms over the mountains of eastern Arizona.
Cold front late tonight, with gradual drying. Additional cold fronts and showers cross through mid week. Frontal boundary, initially stalled out across CWA, is lifting back north this morning, as low pressure moves into the Great Lakes region.
After a cold front moves through the region Sunday night, drier conditions are expected for Monday. A good deal of uncertainty exists regarding timing and placement so have kept pops in chance category with the highest pops across the southwest. The warm front will lift north across our area through the morning hours with some scattered showers and thunderstorms possible along it.
A cold front advancing across the Ohio river valley this evening and overnight will bring the best shot at a few showers or storms, but instability never fully recovers and models have very limited activity over eastern Kentucky with most of the instability and moisture being taken up by the storms to our south near the Gulf coast. A cold front will bring a threat of a few showers or storms Sunday evening, but confidence in coverage is too low to include in TAFs at this point.
640 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017 A low pressure system is expected to cause thunderstorms as it lifts northeast across our area this afternoon. Storms will move out of the area tonight but a few more may develop Memorial Day afternoon as another weak trough moves through.
357 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017 Showers have developed across western WI overnight ahead of the cold front passing through. As temperatures rise into the mid to upper 60s by late this morning, some weak surface-based CAPE will develop within the cyclonic flow of the upper low centered just south of Hudson Bay.
319 AM MDT Sun May 28 2017 GOES-R water vapor loop depicted a well-defined circulation moving across northern MN, with a trailing trough axis southwestward through central NE, northwest KS and into southwest CO. High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model develops widely scattered convection across the high plains and mountains this afternoon. High temperatures this afternoon will be 5-10 degrees warmer with highs in the 60s-low 70s outside the mountains. It will be a tad cooler Monday, mainly over the plains, with highs in the 60s to around 70.
The cold front appears to be making slow progress as it is just getting past the red river and has not reached Dallas/Forth Worth yet.
Northwest flow is expected above the Central High Plains through tomorrow with an upper level trough moving into the eastern United States and an upper level trough building across the western United States. a dome of high pressure will be building into western Kansas with northerly winds anticipated today then light and variable winds tonight.
252 AM PDT Sun May 28 2017 High pressure aloft will bring slow warming for inland areas through Memorial Day while the marine layer will keep coastal high temperatures near seasonal levels with areas of night and morning low clouds and patchy fog.
152 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017 Ridging over the region will weaken on Sunday as a frontal boundary slowly slides into the area.
246 AM MDT Sun May 28 2017 Imagery shows amplified ridge over the wrn CONUS with an amplified positively tilted trof stretching from ecntrl Canada through the nrn High Plains then across the cntrl Rockies. The SFC has high pressure currently entrenched over WY.
A surface trof will move across the area tonight followed by a weak cold front Monday afternoon. Upper level low pressure will linger north of the Great Lakes Monday night through the remainder of the week with persistent weak high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic. For today, weak sfc front/trof will get hung up across the area today and this evening with models indicating decent sfc convergence across the nrn part of the fcst area.
250 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017 Large MCS continues to sink into the lower Mississippi Valley with cirrus blowoff extending northward, although cloud tops are warming over our area and some thinning is taking place over the far northern CWA. As the low lifts northeast and the upper wave approaches, CAPE's over the eastern CWA are progged to reach 1000-1500 J/kg by midday, enough to trigger some scattered showers and storms. Upper low currently near Lake Winnipeg will slowly wobble southeast and east into mid week, keeping the Midwest in a cooler weather pattern. By late in the week, model discrepancies lead to some uncertainties, as the GFS and Canadian models bring down another upper low into the same area, while the ECMWF is warmer with the low staying north of the Great Lakes.
A strong U/L ridge over the Gulf of Mexico will build over the Florida peninsula today and tonight, and will slide just east of Florida on Monday. remaining just north of the forecast area with a strong cut-off low over the northern Great Lakes rotating over southeast Canada on Monday. At the surface, a large area of high pressure over the central Atlantic will extend over the Florida peninsula with the ridge axis south of the forecast area. This will cause daytime temperatures near the coast to be significantly cooler than inland areas.
Still looks like west of I-75 may start out with the highest coverage, and then as the seabreeze kicks in coverage will move inland from I-95. High temperatures in the low- mid 90s inland and cooler at the coast.
An upper level ridge is centered over the northeast Pacific and extends into the Pacific Northwest. As the depth of this marine layer increases this morning and the low clouds spread inland, may see some low clouds spill over the Umpqua Divide and into the Grants Pass and Illinois valley. Tonight into Sunday, the upper ridge will become centered over the region with a surface thermal trough along the coast.
Short wave trough in the north Pacific yesterday has reached eastern WA this morning and will turn more south into our CWA this afternoon and tonight. Trough will bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms as already forecast.
817 AM EDT Sat May 20 2017 Rain chances will increase Sunday with the approach of a cold front. Do not expect anything to become severe given warmer mid level temps capping amount of energy. It will be less humid and cooler with highs only getting into the 70s with 50s for dewpoints. Rain chances are expected to escalate into Sunday as Great Plains low pressure digs toward the Upper Mississippi Valley and shunts a cold front across the midwest and over the Upper Ohio.
1152 AM EDT Sat May 20 2017 Rain chances will increase Sunday with the approach of a cold front. It will be less humid and cooler with highs only getting into the 70s with 50s for dewpoints. Rain chances are expected to escalate into Sunday as Great Plains low pressure digs toward the Upper Mississippi Valley and shunts a cold front across the midwest and over the Upper Ohio.
1042 AM EDT Sat May 20 2017 The mid-level ridge stretches from the Southeastern U. Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 69 78 64 / 50 80 80 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 68 76 61 / 20 70 80 70 Oak Ridge, TN 89 69 77 61 / 20 60 80 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 64 75 59 / 30 40 70 80.
521 AM MDT Sat May 20 2017 Latest analysis shows the deep closed low is currently centered over swrn Nebraska with bands of precipitation rotating around the low and into parts of western and central South Dakota. The low pressure system will move slowly eastward today, reaching northeastern Nebraska by early evening. The rain will gradually shift eastward today as the low moves away from the forecast area.
624 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017 The mid/upper level low will lift slowly northeast across Nebraska today and into the Upper Midwest by late tonight. A brisk and cooler northwest surface flow will prevail in the systems wake today with any lingering showers exiting the area during the morning. Clouds will be slow to scour in the moist cyclonic flow around the departing surface/low level cyclone with even limited heating tending to develop some diurnal stratocu in areas that partially clear. The weekend will finish dry and warmer with highs closer to mid- May climo.
Radar shows cold front now extending from western Ottawa County, east of Tulsa, down toward McIntosh County. Cold front has also moved past McAlester with winds out of the west. Cooler and drier air is moving in, with temps in the mid to upper 50s across central and northern OK.
Low VFR/MVFR CIGs have developed across the area this morning behind a cold front. /issued 337 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017/ Cold front currently heading into the Big Bend with gusty northerly winds in its wake. Front will continue to sag south into Mexico today with much cooler temperatures expected in its wake. Guidance is indicating some low level moisture and instability will persist through tonight across the lower Trans Pecos and portions of the Big Bend. This moisture will combine with an upper level disturbance and the left exit region of the subtropical jet to produce a slight chance to a chance of showers and thunderstorms from the southeast Permian Basin south to the lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend through tonight. Large scale lift may also be enhanced by the right exit region of a northern stream trough.
849 AM EDT Sat May 20 2017 Low pressure over the southern Plains will move slowly northeast into the Upper Great Lakes this weekend causing showers and thunderstorms at times across our area through Sunday morning, with best chances late today through tonight.
A synoptic warm frontal boundary appears to extend from the kmdh area eastward across the kowb area as of 08z. Scattered convection has been occurring along the warm front, with more widespread convection across Missouri. In general, the more favorable shear parameters will be closer to the upper trough along and west of the Mississippi Valley.
749 AM EDT Sat May 20 2017 High pressure builds this morning, then moves east late today and tonight. As the ridge builds to the west and steering flow turns toward the SE, any activity passes south and east by afternoon. Gusty NE winds turn to the E/SE and lighten as the high builds from the north. Cool temps tonight, ranging from around 40 in the normally cooler locations, to around 50, will warm into the 60s Sunday, still below normal. By Sunday night, the ridge axis moves east, and deep SW flow, and WAA moves in.
1052 AM EDT Sat May 20 2017 Southeasterly flow remains well established across the peninsula this morning with high pressure to the north of the area. For the morning update, adjusted PoPs up a bit in spots to include likely tstm wording for much of the immediate Tampa Bay area where the highest rain chances are expected. High pressure north of the waters will result in east and southeast winds. Then the high pressure slowly moves south with winds veering to south then southwest through midweek. and increasing to near advisory speeds as a cold front approaches from the north.
948 AM EDT Sat May 20 2017 Cool high pressure builds across the area today and becomes centered over the area tonight and early Sunday. High pressure shifts east on Sunday.
Freezing levels were on the low side today (around 725mb), and this could lead to some small with thunderstorms, or graupel with showers. Like the higher PoPs over western zones today and brushed a scattered PoP into Billings this afternoon. Fairly dry air in the low-level combined with low freezing levels means a few storms could briefly produce gusty winds and rain mixed with graupel. Given the cooler temperatures and the low rainfall totals in the forecast, we are not anticipating any river issues over the next few days.
905 AM MST Sat May 20 2017 Broad area of low pressure will continue to exit the Four Corners region with high pressure building in from the west.
848 AM EDT Sat May 20 2017 High pressure builds this morning, then moves east late today and tonight. Upper level ridge builds to the west and steering flow turns toward the SE, any activity pushes east late in the day. Gusty NE winds turn to the E/SE and lighten as the high builds from the north. Cool temps tonight, ranging from around 40 in the normally cooler locations, to around 50, will warm into the 60s Sunday, still below normal. By Sunday night, the ridge axis moves east, and deep SW flow, and WAA moves in.
A high pressure to the northeast of the Florida Keys will remain in place this afternoon and tomorrow and slide south tomorrow night.
/Issued 255 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017/ Showers and thunderstorms beginning to wind down across eastern Oklahoma early this morning as the responsible upper level low moves out of the Rockies and into the Plains. High pressure is expected to prevail on Sunday and will result in a chilly start to the day with lows ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s.
/issued 333 AM EDT Sat May 20 2017/ Early this Saturday morning, a ridge of high pressure remains in place over the western Atlantic into the northeastern Gulf, with an area of low pressure over the southern Plains states. Near term (today-tonight): In addition to the SAL, the 20/00Z Nassau sounding, GOES-16 WV data, blended TPW imagery, and available surface observations all indicate slightly drier air in the low-mid levels over the Bahamas moving toward the region.
That said, as the low deepens over Nebraska, flow becomes more easterly and we should saturate out the low levels. Added mention of Rain/Snow, with the focus over the higher elevations of the Coteau.
A closed upper low will track from the Plains into the Upper Midwest during this time period. Cloud bases are on their way down as the low level moisture increases. Max temps will range from the lower 50s north to around 60 south.
1055 AM EDT Sat May 20 2017 High pressure builds this morning, then moves east late today and tonight. As an upper level ridge builds to the west the steering flow turns toward the SE, any activity pushes to the south and east. NE winds turn to the E/SE and lighten as the high builds from the north. Cool temps tonight, ranging from around 40 in the normally cooler locations, to around 50, will warm into the 60s Sunday, still below normal. By Sunday night, the ridge axis moves east, and deep SW flow, and WAA moves in.
905 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017 Large precipitation shield associated with the upper low moving north into the eastern Dakotas this morning. An upper level low over the central plains will lift northeast into the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota by 12 UTC Sunday. For highs today we leaned toward a MOS based forecast with temperatures a little warmer than yesterday in the west, about the same north central and a little colder in the south central, closer to the approaching upper low. This lowered them from the given guidance but did not drop off as drastically as the HRRR/RAP did this afternoon.
Low pressure will continue to slide northeast into the Great Lakes with high pressure across western Kansas. The area of high pressure will be over western Kansas tonight with light and variable winds expected. Lows tonight are progged to dip into the low to mid 40s.
/issued 510 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017/ An upper level low swinging down into Texas this am is supporting a line of storms ahead of a cold front this line is approaching from the west.