Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
337 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF NEW YORK AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE DRYLINE AS A LOBE OF VORTICITY BREAKS OFF THE MAIN UPPER LOW AND SWINGS THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. WITH PRESSURE FALLS LOCALLY AND SLOW EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE UPPER LOW. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WITH BREEZY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS. AN ENSUING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH. DRY COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NE NM/SE CO WILL WORK ITS WAY S AND SE BUT GIVEN SCANT MOISTURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DONT ANTICIPATE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WORKING THEIR WAY THIS FAR SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
AS TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS CONVERGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. DEEPENING TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER MANITOBA WHILE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WASHES INTO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM.
127 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT. ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT.
211 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015 AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.
355 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015 THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLOWING TREND. COULD SEE GREATER COVERAGE ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA LATE EVENING AND SHIFTING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH THE REGION.
400 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM QUEBEC TO THE GULF OF MAINE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BRIEFLY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
326 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
142 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO TONIGHT THEN A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
MUCH BETTER RAIN CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FINALLY OPENING UP AND KICKING EAST. INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE HARDER TO COME BY AND MOST UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THOSE AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST SHEAR.
PRECIP WILL BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.
350 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015 THE UPPER LOW HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AND IS SPINNING OVER COLORADO. CLOSER TO 18Z WITH THE SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER LOW. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY: THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD AND LOBES OF VORTICITY ARE EXPECTED TO CIRCLE AROUND IT WHICH COULD SPARK MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE STATE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND GUSTY.
257 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AS UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO. AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES. AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
307 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE TROUGH MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL START TO IMPACT THE REGION WITH PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME ISOLATED CELLS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A MORE LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS COLORADO THIS MORNING WITH THE SOUTHERLY TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTHERN STATES.
412 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015 Overview: Closed and cut-off upper low now over central CO will be the primary weather driver for the weekend. Today - Sunday: While eyes have been fixated on the closed upper low now over CO/NM the real weather makers will be periodic vorticity lobes and associated layered frontogenesis that rotate northeast out from under the upper low. Even still this is a forecast which will need adjusting throughout the day as the convection tied to the upper low has had repeated false starts as well as expanding too fast to the east. The upper low will have opened up by then and will accelerate eastward. Anticipate convection increasing as it moves east through the CWA in response to improving upper level dynamics and low-level convergence associated with a cold front.
428 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015 TODAY IS THE DAY IN WHICH THE CLOSED LOW OVER COLORADO WILL FINALLY EXIT TO OUR EAST. AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING.
226 AM PDT SAT APR 18 2015 A weak cold front has moved through the region overnight and will produce slightly cooler temperatures and some breezy winds for the weekend.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM THE NW. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. A CLOSED UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CROSSING THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ON SUNDAY, AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS RIGHT OVER US AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
Low level westerly flow continues to advect dry air into the area as well, and combined with the low finally moving toward the plains, the dryline will be shunted to the east of the forecast area today, along with any chances of convection. The only caveat to this scenario could be over portions of the Lower Trans Pecos, mainly Terrell county, where models are indicating some light QPF through this afternoon before the dryline clears the forecast area to the east.
RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING LOOK TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS EAST OF I-35 WHERE MOST LATEST RADAR ECHOES WERE OCCURRING FROM A WEAK IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND A MID/UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN COLORADO. WENT WITH THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THINKING SOME SUN WILL OCCUR.
SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGHS PLAINS. TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM THE PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE BIG BEND INTO MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY.
355 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015 ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS COLORADO CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO OPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE MAIN TROUGH IS THROUGH THE AREA BY MID DAY. COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW AND EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.
121 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.
The remainder of the day will be partly cloudy and warm for this time of year as we remain under the influence of ridging aloft. Dry weather will not last, however, as a low pressure system moves out of the Mid Mississippi Valley tonight and across Indiana Sunday.
SUNDAY MORNING CONTINUES THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE ARKANSAS/TENNESSEE BORDER. WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHING STORMS AS THEY FORM ACROSS FAR EASTERN TEXAS INTO FAR WESTERN TENNESSEE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES.
403 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT. ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ARE ANTICIPATED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AND ENHANCE STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRY-LINE WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS AS STORMS FORM IN THE MOIST AND WARM SECTOR. MID LEVEL WESTERLY WILL TAKE OVER AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES TO THE EAST.
MODELS ARE RELATIVELY SIMILAR IN MOVING LOW INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS THIS EVENING BEFORE IT OPENS UP AND SWINGS THROUGH KANSAS ON SUNDAY AS KICKER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. AHEAD OF THE LOW THIS MORNING. NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN THIS REGARD AND IS THE ODD MODEL OUT IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA NEAR SURFACE CIRCULATION AND ALONG WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO OUR WESTERN CWA. BUT IF STORMS DO FIRE AS NAM INDICATES THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED TORNADO RISK IN AREA OF MAXIMUM LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY ALONG WARM FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING TOWARD NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST AND NORTH MOUNTAINS. AREAS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
A RELATIVELY WEAK TO MODERATE BOUYANCY/CAPE BUT HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS SET UP FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY SEPARATING A MOIST A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND DRYER WARMER AIR BEHIND A DRYLINE WEST OF LIBERAL. AS THE UPPER LOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT REGIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, BY CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. HERE AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A COLD FRONT AT 20 TO 30 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
MODELS STILL AGREE WELL BUT WERE SLOWING DOWN THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH INTO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN WILL MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THEY MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL ALSO INTENSIFY TO THE EAST. DEPARTURE OF UPPER TROF INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN LATE SAT AM WHICH WILL INITIALLY HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND AND WARM FRONT TO SOUTH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA. BUT MAY LINGER ALONG THE FL EAST COAST AND SE GA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SEABREEZE/OUTFLOW MERGERS AND WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO THE AREA. A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AS A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MISS/TENN VALLEY BEGINS TO RACE NE PUTTING THE AREA IN THE WARM AND MOIST SECTOR AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. WITH ADDED LIFT FROM APPROACHING TROUGH. SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 80S BEFORE THE ONSET OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
THE UPPER LOW IS SLOWLY EDGING OFF THE FOUR CORNERS INTO CO/NB/KN NOW THANKS TO ANOTHER DEEPENING TROUGH ON THE NW COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND INTO THE EVENING. SO TODAY LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIDE SPREAD COVERAGE WITH ONLY A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE AND THEN ON SUNDAY WE ARE SLIGHT/ENHANCED FOR SEVERE WITH THE COLD FRONT BY MORE LIMITED WIDE SPREAD COVERAGE. OUR DEW POINTS WILL BE LOW TO MID 60S WITH SOME MORE HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARRIVING WITH SOME LIFT WHILE STILL UNDER THE UPPER DIVERGENT TROUGH TO OUR WEST.
ALTHOUGH WEAK UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD INHIBIT WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SIMILAR COVERAGE IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING HOLDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
MULTIPLE PV ANOMALIES WERE ORBITING THE LOW AND WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO MODULATE SHWR/TSTM POTENTIAL THRU TOMORROW. THE LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI- STATIONARY UNTIL TOMORROW. THE TROF MOVING INTO THE PAC NW WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES TOMORROW. USED THE 06Z/12Z NAM TO TIME THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ARW/NMM WRF. THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASS TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH PCPN WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MIXING DEEPENS TO JUST BELOW H7 WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 30 AND 35KTS RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTN. THE PLAINS LOW CONTINUES TO FILL ON SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASES WITH A CANADIAN TROUGH TO OUR EAST.
315 AM PDT SAT APR 18 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS.
SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGGED TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL COLORADO THIS MORNING TO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO BY DINNER TIME. WHILE DROPPING CHEYENNE FROM THE ADVISORY WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND THUS MINIMAL IMPACTS TO TRAVEL.
1214 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015 UPPER CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AS SEEN IN IR. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW FROM NORTHERN COLORADO SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SATURDAY. MODELS ARE SCOURING OUT SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. BUT ALL AREAS WILL HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD. SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN MOVED FURTHER EAST ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW AND DRY LINE MOVES FURTHER EAST AND MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA IS DRY SLOTTED.
CURRENT SURFACE MAP THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO. MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE DRY NORTHEAST FLOW INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S AND POSSIBLY THE UPPER TEENS. THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE CENTRAL AND HIGH PLAINS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS OPENS AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS WEEKEND. MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL ACCOMPANY A PATTERN SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION AS A LARGER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
With a lull in precipitation and possibly some better sunshine out west, this would boost instability and chances for severe thunderstorms as late day storms develop along the dryline to our west and along the northward advancing warm front. General precipitation chances continue in the overnight hours ahead of the upper low as it continues to slowly move east. By Sunday morning the mid/upper low will be centered over SC KS and NC OK as it progresses eastward. These waves will bring a cold front through the region during the day Sunday.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 76 62 76 61 / 40 100 90 60 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 78 61 76 61 / 20 100 90 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 77 62 75 60 / 20 100 90 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 80 58 75 56 / 20 70 90 60 NC.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL /HIGHS BY AROUND 10F/ AGAIN TODAY. LOWS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL /ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AG VALLEYS/ WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING TO 7-14 ABOVE NORMAL IN THE DRY AIRMASS THROUGH SUNDAY.
438 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF NEW YORK AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
245 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015 AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE GULF AREA SUNDAY BRINGING QUITE A BIT OF RAIN WITH IT. AFTER THE LOW MOVES EAST. FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE LOW APPROACHING SUNDAY. AT LEAST UNTIL THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY EVENING. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT MOVING THE LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA SO CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH WE/LL SEE RAIN.
621 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY. STRONG SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS ERODE, WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG AND POSSIBLY EVEN HIGHER, ALONG WITH HIGH CAPE DENSITY. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FROM DODGE CITY WESTWARD TO THE 50S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A COLD FRONT AT 20 TO 30 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
409 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
627 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT. ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT.
/ISSUED 845 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. A SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT, WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR, CLEARS THE PENINSULA OVERNIGHT.
456 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. AS WELL AS THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF CIRRUS SPILLING OVER THE H500 RIDGE AXIS.
353 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015 SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER.
135 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 A WEAK BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
204 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST AND AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY. SCT SHRAS INVOF WK TROUGH INVOF WRN VA CONTG TO DISSIPATING AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK SFC TROF DVLPNG IN LEE OF MTS DRNG THE AFTRN WITH EVEN A BIT OF QPF ALONG AND W OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT THEN SHIFTS EAST TO A POSITION ALONG THE MID ATLNTC COAST SUN THROUGH MON. MODELS HINT AT ANTHR LEE TROF DVLPMNT MON AFTRN. DRY/WARMER ALONG WITH DAILY SEA BREEZES DVLPNG. LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. CURRENTLY HAVE SCA'S UP ACRS THE LOWER BAY/CSTL WATERS/CURRITUCK SOUND.
407 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK ONLY TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.
144 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE REGION WILL AGAIN JUMP INTO THE LOWER 70S AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES JUMP PAST 8C. FRIES HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
A weak cold front will drop southward across the region today with minimal impacts aside from breezy afternoon winds.
A WEAK TROF CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SO A BIT COOLER UP THERE.
1135 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015 A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY. A LARGE CLOSED LOW OFF OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER DURING THE WORK WEEK. THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. MODELS WERE GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE RIDGE SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST. LOOKS LIKE A BOUNDARY/INVERTED TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND FROM THE GULF. WITH DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH WITH THE RIDGE CENTER.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TOMORROW SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF TODAY AS THE FLAT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER COLORADO AND MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE STATE.
637 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. AS WELL AS THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF CIRRUS SPILLING OVER THE H500 RIDGE AXIS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT/CALM WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
647 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK ONLY TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.
127 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN MARGINAL BENEATH A MEAN UPPER RIDGE. LOW POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN STILL LOOK APPROPRIATE. WHILE THE COOLER AIR IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL IMPROVE LAPSE RATES.
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S OVER WEST CENTRAL MN HOWEVER. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MN TONIGHT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN CWA LATER TONIGHT. MAY ALSO GENERATE SOME ELEVATED THUNDER ALONG WITH THE DECAYING DIURNAL ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED ROUGHLY FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL MN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS MOVE BACK IN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR RETURNING ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS THE EAST SEEING TEMPERATURES FALL ONLY INTO THE LOWER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND QUICKLY MOVE NORTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THERE ARE A FEW CLOUDS ROTATING SOUTH AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW INTO NORTH AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKE STATES WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS RIDGE IS BUILDING SLOWLY AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PERIOD REMAINS DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT.
336 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015 06Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH SUNRISE AND THE MORNING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH MOST AREAS REACHING OR SURPASSING THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S.