Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
117 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 Rest of today: The sfc cold front is settling in across the region, building in much drier & quieter conditions expected for this aftn. 12Z synoptic analysis indicates longwave trough along & E of the Great Plains, with the center of the cold core low consolidating over S central Canada. Temp profiles haven't cooled that much, but a low-level thermo trough extends into mid-S & NW MS. Highs will be cooler closer to climo only in the mid-upper 70s for areas across NE half from Greenville-Meridian line, while low 80s to the SW. At the same time, a fast-moving cold front should reach the forecast area later this morning, and then cross the entire area by afternoon. Behind the front, dry subsident northwest flow will bring much drier air, gusty wind, and somewhat cooler temperatures.
(This evening through Friday) Current upper air analysis shows a vertically stacked upper level low centered over Ontario which places us under the southwest peripheral of this trough. The cold front associated with this trough has moved well to the south of the CWA which positions us within a very stable and dry atmosphere. Light surface winds and strong radiational cooling will allow temperatures to dip down into the low 40s in these locations.
A strong high pressure ridge will maintain the dry conditions, light winds, and above-normal temperatures.
Northwest flow aloft persists with a weak high pressure area over the Texas panhandle weakening and being replaced by a prefrontal trough on Friday that brings westerly downslope winds to the high plains region.
Rest of today: The sfc cold front is settling in across the region, building in much drier & quieter conditions expected for this aftn. 12Z synoptic analysis indicates longwave trough along & E of the Great Plains, with the center of the cold core low consolidating over S central Canada. Temp profiles haven't cooled that much, but a low-level thermo trough extends into mid-S & NW MS. Highs will be cooler closer to climo only in the mid-upper 70s for areas across NE half from Greenville-Meridian line, while low 80s to the SW. At the same time, a fast-moving cold front should reach the forecast area later this morning, and then cross the entire area by afternoon. Behind the front, dry subsident northwest flow will bring much drier air, gusty wind, and somewhat cooler temperatures.
With dry airmass building in and the base of the upper trough entrenched across the eastern CONUS, we should have a quiet and mostly clear end to the work week. Max temps Friday look to mainly be several degrees below normal generally in the low to mid 70s, then min temps Friday night moderating a bit warmer to generally the upper 40s to low 50s.
Lows Friday night will be a little warmer and actually in some locations a few degrees above seasonal normal values.
The Rex blocking pattern will continue to take hold over the western US through the forecast period.
1138 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2022 Showers will taper off later today as a cold front exits the region. Dry weather returns tonight and Friday under building high pressure. Showers will continue this morning as a sfc cold front crosses the region. The showers should taper off from W-E after FROPA, through a deepening upper trough across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region could support a few more showers through early evening as a vort max rotates through the base of the trough.
1128 AM MDT Thu Oct 13 2022 Very little change expected in the short term forecast as we remain squeezed between the Rex Block along the Pacific Coast and expansive low pressure over eastern NOAM. It looks like the Eagle and Roaring Fork Valleys could see widespread at or below freezing temperatures tonight and issued a Freeze Watch. The upstream rex block isn't necessarily breaking down but shifting inland through the weekend as a kicker trough pushes through the eastern Pacific.
Current radar and visible satellite imagery showing dry conditions and some high level clouds moving through our northern zones as the upper level ridge's axis stays planted along the Pacific Northwest coast. Clear skies will continue to persist as high temperatures will again reach into the mid to upper 70s through the Lower Columbia Basin this afternoon, keeping highs about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. The presence of high pressure and low winds will also allow for the potential for localized smoke and haze to extend into areas of the Basin, primarily along the Northern Blues, Eastern Gorge, Kittitas Valley, and through Central Oregon. Current forecast confidence is high in relation to the persistent ridge, thus minor updates to sky, temperatures, and winds were conducted with this morning's forecast package.
1051 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 Surface analysis late this morning places a cold front from the Appalachians back through Central Alabama and into Southern Mississippi, Louisiana, and East Texas. High pressure behind this front is resulting in sunny skies and temperatures as of 10 AM CDT in the 60s at most locations.
May see a gust or two of up to 55 mph through that time, and perhaps some patchy blowing dust, but those would be on the high end of impacts and localized. However, temperatures will be warmer, upper 70s to lower 80s, which will allow afternoon relative humidity to drop to around 15 percent or less in many areas. northwest flow aloft continues but weakens as the upper low near the Great Lakes begins to pull away. Precipitation will stay far south of the area ahead of another upper low in the desert southwest.
903 AM MDT Thu Oct 13 2022 Other than some passing clouds today, expect afternoon highs to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday.
350 PM EDT Thu Oct 13 2022 High pressure will extend across the region through the weekend.
300 PM EDT Thu Oct 13 2022 A cold front will move across the area tonight followed by high pressure for the weekend. A stronger front will move across early next bringing much cooler temperatures. Really an uneventful and nice weekend expected as high pressure building in will keep things dry and mostly seasonable.
(through Tonight) A cold front will move southeast across the area this evening, coupled with a weak upper disturbance. Once the front passes to the southeast Tonight, high pressure will build from the northwest. Cooler and drier air will filter southeast into the area during the overnight.
The dry air, clear skies, and light and variable winds will allow lows to fall into the lower 50s in most areas tonight, with some readings in the 40s not out of the question for valley locations and rural, low lying areas as we saw this morning.
(This evening through Friday) Clouds are clearing nicely across Central Alabama early this afternoon as relatively cooler and drier air advects into the region from the northwest. The cold front is currently analyzed near Selma stretching northeastward to Anniston. With temperatures cooling rapidly overnight, we could see fog formation especially along the warmer river and lake basins.
(Today and tonight) As a cold front makes its way across our region over the next few hours we'll continue to see widespread fog as winds remain light and moisture remains high. A relatively cooler and drier air mass will move in behind the front tonight. Daytime highs are expected to be in the low to mid 80s with overnight lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. Clouds, showers, and thunderstorms this morning will gradually exit our area by this afternoon as a cold front moves through. The cold front will finally make its way through the region today.
1223 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 (This afternoon through Friday) The morning surface analysis indicates that our cold front has pushed S into SE TX to near the I-10 corridor of SW LA into Acadiana, roughly from just NW of a IAH/BPT, to LCH/LFT and BTR line as of 15Z. With the post-frontal cold advection having ended with the onset of mixing, 15Z temps have climbed rapidly in the drying air mass, with readings now having climbed into the lower to mid 70s across the region.
The synoptic pattern will persist, with rex block positioned over the nation, with cold core cutoff low over the Baja Peninsula, upper high over the Pacific NW & large stalled trough over the N Great Lakes/Upper MS Valley. Lows will fall below climo areawide, with some areas in the S into the low 50s & mid-upper 40s N of I-20, while cold drainage areas could reach the lower 40s. Low-level thermo profiles will be mostly similar & efficient mixing will lead to highs warming again above climo into the low-mid 80s.
(The rest of today ) High pressure over the Rockies ridging into the Southern Plains will maintain downslope, drying west and northwesterly low level flow across CWA today.
109 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 (Rest of Today) Mostly cloudy conditions remain in place ahead of and just behind the cold front that brought us some needed rainfall (1 to 2 inches in some locations) and some stronger thunderstorms yesterday.
Temperatures are rising above freezing at this time, and will continue to steadily rise through the morning hours. Today A large closed low centered near the Great Lakes region and the smaller closed low off the coast of California continues to interact with a high pressure system situated off the Oregon coast, bringing dry northwest flow aloft. Temperatures will be seasonal with highs in the 60s and 70s throughout south central and southeast Colorado, with exception of temperatures in the mid to upper 40s in the higher elevations. Sub freezing temperatures, from mid 20s to lower 30s, will occur in the mountains and mountain valleys.
Things get a little interesting tonight through Friday as we watch an area of low pressure and associated cold front drop south over the region.
Other than some passing clouds today, expect afternoon highs to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday.
1047 AM MDT Thu Oct 13 2022 Current WV analysis shows prominent upper level ridge over the western CONUS. An upper low swirls over the Great Lakes region and the cold front that brought our gusty winds today has now drifted to the south east and now drapes across IL/MO.
354 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 Key Points: * Cool night ahead with temperatures dipping into the low and mid 30s across northern and eastern Missouri * Elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected Friday afternoon. Upper level trough continues to sit and spin across the Upper Midwest.
Friday, a closed upper low will move from northern MN into northern WI. A lobe from this upper low will drop across southeast SD and northeast NE during the morning. Cooler air will be drawn into the northeastern zones where highs noticeably cooler from the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Weekend Weather: The hemispheric weather pattern will remain stagnant over the weekend, with longwave troughing in the East and ridging over the West.
142 PM MDT Thu Oct 13 2022 Still some lingering 850mb winds at around 40kts mixing down and producing wind gusts 35-45 mph in far southeast Montana, while cooler air is present out there once again (temperatures in the low 50s), and rising into the mid 60s in south-central Montana. Friday continues the trend of warmer west to cooler east, with breezy winds lingering in far southeast Montana, but again even more relatively lighter, so gusts up to 35 mph expected.
203 PM MDT Thu Oct 13 2022 Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery depict a robust upper low centered over west-central Ontario and far eastern Manitoba this afternoon. Deep trough axis extends southward through the Great Lakes into the Tennessee Valley. The upper low will slowly pivot eastward, becoming centered over northern WI by Friday night. As the low pulls eastward, the core of strongest winds aloft will shift eastward and the pressure gradient will begin to ease throughout the day Friday.
Weak high pressure will remain across the region today and Friday with dry conditions and seasonable temperatures.
North winds behind a cold front will continue into the evening as temperatures top out in the low 80s. High pressure will briefly become centered over the Southern Plains tonight allowing winds to diminish with a gradual southwesterly component developing by morning.
A few isolated rain showers are possible from central Minnesota into western Wisconsin this afternoon, but more widespread precipitation will develop late tonight through tomorrow morning as the upper level low slowly dips south and vorticity increases aloft.
We went a couple degrees above the blend, but it could be a little warmer still.
This, along with a light wind continuing and cold temps forecast in the low 30s later ion the night, will hoist a frost advisory for our remaining counties where growing season is still applicable.
The jet supporting a longwave trough over Canada and the Great Lakes region is further east today, with an upper level high over the PACNW coast. Temperatures will rise above normal, humidity values will approach critical values and gusty winds will be more widespread Friday, as a cold front approaches from the north.
(This afternoon through Friday) The morning surface analysis indicates that our cold front has pushed S into SE TX to near the I-10 corridor of SW LA into Acadiana, roughly from just NW of a IAH/BPT, to LCH/LFT and BTR line as of 15Z. With the post-frontal cold advection having ended with the onset of mixing, 15Z temps have climbed rapidly in the drying air mass, with readings now having climbed into the lower to mid 70s across the region. 15 (12Z TAFS) For the 13/12Z TAF period, convection associated with a cold front has exited our airspace this morning with rapid clearing of clouds behind the front.
Vort lope/upper low and attendant surface inflection will pinwheel southwest over NW MN overnight and bring with it a saturated airmass with temp profiles favorable for a change over from rain to snow this evening. Areas from Hallock to Crookston to Detroit Lakes and points east are expected to see accumulating snow to around an inch with points downstream of the 'warmer' lakes and higher elevations seeing slightly higher amounts, 2 to 3 inches in localized areas. The upper level low will slowly push southeast with snow showers lingering and turning into rain showers for west central MN tomorrow afternoon. Highs will struggle to climb into the low 40s for the valley and points west with upper 30s in MN lakes and forests. Conditions improve for the latter part of the period with a return to warmer and drier conditions.
(This evening through Friday night) The cold front that passed through the area earlier has cleared our outer waters.
300 PM EDT Thu Oct 13 2022 A cold front will pass through central NC through tonight.
230 PM MDT Thu Oct 13 2022 The large scale pattern will continue to be largely unchanged over the next few days, as the Rex Block over the West Coast and the large trough over the eastern half of the country both remain stubbornly stationary. Some slight ridging over the Four Corners region will keep skies clear and allow daytime temperatures to climb a few degrees above normal for mid-October. These clear skies will also allow for good radiational cooling at night, with some of the higher elevation valleys seeing temperatures drop below freezing.
High pressure continues to be in control. High pressure is centered just off the Oregon coast bringing light northwesterly flow aloft over our area.
120 PM EDT Thu Oct 13 2022 Dry weather returns tonight and Friday under building high pressure. Will see clearing skies into this evening in between weak troughs passing through in cyclonic flow.
Ridging aloft combined with warm mid level temperatures and strong southerly surface flow will send temperatures well above normal with nearly everyone in the 80's Friday.
1245 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 Deep upper trough extends from western Ontario into the Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a closed low is still situated off of the Southern CA coast. At the surface, a secondary cold front extends from southern IL to the Ozark region and finally into northern OK. Looking for cooler temps today compared to Wed in addition to some stronger northwest winds which should be in the 25-30 mph range with higher gusts. Highs today will be close to seasonal normals as they top out in the low 70s. For Sat, we are still expecting a warm front to lift north across the Southern Plains and should stretch across central OK by the afternoon hours.
Upper troughing, an upper low or northwest flow will be the dominant modes through the entire 7 day forecast. What this means for us is continued fall like weather with partly to mostly cloudy skies, occasional rain showers and cooler weather.
The low should eventually have enough push to move far enough away to allow winds to diminish overnight. Cliff PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION: An upper level trough to our east and ridge to our west continues to position the area under northwest flow.
530 PM MDT Thu Oct 13 2022 The large scale pattern will continue to be largely unchanged over the next few days, as the Rex Block over the West Coast and the large trough over the eastern half of the country both remain stubbornly stationary. Some slight ridging over the Four Corners region will keep skies clear and allow daytime temperatures to climb a few degrees above normal for mid-October. These clear skies will also allow for good radiational cooling at night, with some of the higher elevation valleys seeing temperatures drop below freezing.
Drier air associated with an approaching cold front will continue to work southward tonight and help to lower rain chances from north to south. As winds start to swing around from the north overnight and sky conditions begin to clear, temperatures will respond by falling into the low 70s and upper 60s.
Clearing across the interior will result in slightly warmer temperatures compared to the coast through the weekend. This is in response to the persistent summer-like marine layer of around 1,800 feet and a Rex Blocking pattern aloft. That said, the forecast models do show an eastward push of the Rex Block as troughing develops out over the Eastern Pacific. The deterministic models indicate the aforementioned mid/upper level trough offshore will develop into a closed low either off of central or southern California while high pressure builds over the Great Basin. KSFO Bridge Approach.
which should aid in low temps falling into the low/mid 40s for much of the CWA. We went a couple degrees above the blend, but it could be a little warmer still.
746 PM EDT Thu Oct 13 2022 Dry weather returns tonight and Friday under building high pressure.
623 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 Key Points: * Cool night ahead with temperatures dipping into the low and mid 30s across northern and eastern Missouri * Elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected Friday afternoon. Upper level trough continues to sit and spin across the Upper Midwest.
(Rest of tonight) High pressure anchored over the region will keep conditions dry and cool tonight.
459 PM MDT Thu Oct 13 2022 Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery depict a robust upper low centered over west-central Ontario and far eastern Manitoba this afternoon. Deep trough axis extends southward through the Great Lakes into the Tennessee Valley. The upper low will slowly pivot eastward, becoming centered over northern WI by Friday night. As the low pulls eastward, the core of strongest winds aloft will shift eastward and the pressure gradient will begin to ease throughout the day Friday.
604 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 (This evening through Friday) Current upper air analysis shows a vertically stacked upper level low centered over Ontario which places us under the southwest peripheral of this trough. The cold front associated with this trough has moved well to the south of the CWA which positions us within a very stable and dry atmosphere. Light surface winds and strong radiational cooling will allow temperatures to dip down into the low 40s in these locations.
832 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 (This evening through Friday night) The cold front that passed through the area earlier has cleared our outer waters.
Northwest flow aloft continues as the large-scale upper trough deepens while shifting across Wisconsin. As the upper trough deepens, so does the surface cyclone to our northeast, and the tightening of the pressure gradient results in west-southwest winds gusting 20 to 25 mph. With H850 temperatures rising to near 18 deg C and downslope flow, it will feel much warmer tomorrow - roughly 10 degrees higher compared to today.
958 PM EDT Thu Oct 13 2022 High pressure will extend across the region through the weekend.
Through 11 pm, spotty showers will continue to edge farther south of the local area as the surface cold front (roughly from JAX to Lake City) continues to press southward with the 00z JAX RAOB showing NW flow above the surface and drier air infiltrating from the WNW through the column. Temperatures were on track to fall into the mid/upper 50s across inland SE GA and the I-10 corridor to the low 60s inland NE FL to mid/upper 60s NE FL coast.
High pressure will keep mild and mostly dry conditions over Utah and southwest Wyoming over the next several days.
The low should eventually have enough push to move far enough away to allow winds to diminish overnight. Cliff PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: An upper level trough to our east and ridge to our west continues to position the area under northwest flow.
507 PM EDT Thu Oct 13 2022 Dry weather returns tonight and Friday under building high pressure.
650 PM EDT Thu Oct 13 2022 High pressure will extend across the region through the weekend.
Clouds will erode from the E once again on Friday, but a trend toward thicker coastal clouds and a deeper marine layer is expected this weekend, and the low-level inversion will weaken through the weekend at the upper ridge over the area weakens and gradually shifts E.
Despite these factors, it will be a much cooler night than last with lows dropping into the mid 30s.
1014 PM EDT Thu Oct 13 2022 A cold front will move across the area tonight followed by high pressure for the weekend. A stronger front will move across early next bringing much cooler temperatures. Cold front is slowly approaching from the west this evening. Front will move across the area overnight with cooler and drier air following in its wake. Really an uneventful and nice weekend expected as high pressure building in will keep things dry and mostly seasonable.
731 PM EDT Thu Oct 13 2022 (through Tonight) A cold front will move southeast across the area this evening, coupled with a weak upper disturbance. Once the front passes to the southeast Tonight, high pressure will build from the northwest. Cooler and drier air will filter southeast into the area during the overnight.
Cold front is well off the Louisiana coast and drier air is only slowly filtering in. (This evening through Friday night) The cold front that passed through the area earlier has cleared our outer waters.
741 PM EDT Thu Oct 13 2022 A cold front will move across the area tonight followed by high pressure for the weekend. A stronger front will move across early next bringing much cooler temperatures. Really an uneventful and nice weekend expected as high pressure building in will keep things dry and mostly seasonable.
Northwest flow aloft continues as the large-scale upper trough, deepens while shifting across Wisconsin. As the upper trough deepens, so does the surface cyclone to our northeast, and the tightening of the pressure gradient results in breezy southwest winds over our area Friday. With H850 temperatures rising to near 18 deg C and downslope flow, it will feel much warmer tomorrow - roughly 10 degrees higher compared to today.
With an upper High north of a closed upper low, but tilted a bit, an Rex Block"ish" patter is over the west coast.
650 PM EDT Thu Oct 13 2022 (Through Friday) A cold front will finish clearing the area this afternoon or evening, leaving clear, dry, and cooler weather in its wake.
High pressure will dominate the weather pattern through the weekend delivering dry and mild conditions.