Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
With dewpoints ranging from the lower 60s across far northern areas to right around 70 degrees across the south shore, relative humidity is unseasonably down in the 40 to 50 percent range across most of the area making for a relatively pleasant summer afternoon.
/issued 404 AM CDT Sun Jul 30 2017/ The cold front has moved into the Gulf of Mexico and drier air should move into the area.
Temperatures will be mild again for this time of year with lows from 55 to 65 and highs Monday in the low to mid 80s.
Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicates the trough axis is along the Eastern Seaboard with a ridge across the Central and Western CONUS. Closer to home, seeing dry northerly to northwesterly flow aloft behind the departing trough with the ridge expanding into the area. Highs will climb up into the mid to upper 80s across most valley locations but the lower humidity will continue with dewpoints in the upper 50s and low 60s.
304 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2017 High pressure extending from the Midwest, into the northeastern states, will keep our weather mainly dry through Monday.
lingering boundary (warm front) is still draped across the U. Warm front is still slated to get shoved up into Ontario as we go through the night. as upstream low pressure over western Minnesota advances into Canada.
Upper level pattern continues to feature a large amplitude trough across the western CONUS and a corresponding downstream ridge across the Midwest and eastern US. Low level thermal ridge, with temps of +20C sampled by both DVN and ILX 12Z RAOBs, continues to produce record warmth across the area this afternoon, with Chicago O'Hare already breaking the old record high for this date.
Increasingly drier air will be mixed down into the boundary layer, allowing for slightly cooler morning lows over the next couple of nights. However, the upper level high will begin breaking down as we move toward midweek. Then a cold front will approach the Ohio Valley but the upper level ridging will still be in place.
Strong ridging, sunny skies and brisk southerly winds ahead of the next cold front will keep the above normal temperatures in the region.
An expansive trough covers the entire western CONUS with dual low centers located in northern Nevada and western Montana. A cold front is draped across the northwestern portions of the CWA where satellite imagery shows extensive cloud cover.
High pressure centered north of Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico will gradually lift north through the weekend, with light easterly winds continuing.
/issued 314 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017/ An UA ridge draped from the Great Lakes region southwest to across the majority of the Four-State Region has led to sea-breeze convection having a tough time making it to the region /versus what we have seen the last several days/. However, a weak shear axis on the eastern periphery of the aforementioned UA ridge have aided in developing isolated showers across northeast LA and southwest AR, nearing Monroe LA and Texarkana AR respectively. Furthermore, 21Z metars reported temps in the lower 90s, making it unseasonably warm for the first day of the Fall season.
T-storm activity north of the low will exit the lake of the woods area overnight. Primary concern will be severe potential this afternoon and into this evening along and ahead of warm frontal boundary. CAM guidance all in good agreement in keeping warm sector dry with capping and best potential along and ahead of warm front over northern MN. If storms can become surface based will have to watch tor potential with warm front in place. With cooler airmass in place, instability weak so strong storms not anticipated.
843 PM MST Fri Sep 22 2017 A low pressure system and cold front that is now sweeping through the southwest will bring substantially cooler temperatures across the region this weekend. Strong low pressure continues to churn across northern Nevada up through Idaho, bringing cooler than normal air across the region. These cooler than normal temps should persist through the early part of the week. Troughing is forecast to continue across our area through the week but heights will be slowly climbing.
The 500 mb anticyclone will remain over the southern Great Lakes into the Ohio River Valley during this period. High pressure will linger east of the area at the surface. Temperatures will turn cooler near Lake Michigan in the late morning and afternoon, with a south to southeast lake breeze. Heat index values Saturday should be in the lower to middle 90s.
Largely a persistence forecast as a strong upper ridge remains parked over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Cu field is actually most agitated under the heart of the upper ridge, and we have seen some very isolated showers/T-storms.
A warm front was situated from around AUW-OCQ-SUE, and was being enhanced by cloud cover and convection/evaporational cooling over northern WI. The cold front should shift north of the region this evening, leaving the forecast area in the capped warm sector tonight into Saturday. A cold front will move into northwest WI Saturday afternoon, but any precipitation chances should remain to our northwest.
Tonight will be dry while temperatures fall into the low to mid 60s with the possibility of patchy fog again early tomorrow morning.
The surface cold front is knocking on our doorstep late this afternoon, with the thermal ridge ahead of it producing near- record temps/dewpoints and attendant widespread heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s across central/southern MN into west central WI. As the low level jet re-intensifies tonight, expect showers and thunderstorms to develop over far western Minnesota in the vicinity of the front. In the big picture, we'll see the western trough ever so slowly shift eastward over the weekend, with its associated frontal boundary grudgingly moving along with it.
Water vapor satellite imagery in combination with recent RUC model analysis showed a closed mid tropospheric low near the OR/ID/NV border area, which was part of a large trough that stretched from western Canada. A ridge extended from the eastern Great Lakes region down into northern Mexico. Thermal ridge at 700 mb (with temps as warm as 12 or 13 degrees C) extended from west TX into western and central SD. A ribbon of higher 850 mb moisture, with winds at that level mainly from 30 to 50 knots) was located just east of the mid level thermal ridge. At the surface, a cold front extended from low pressure over northeast SD down into southwest NE and northeast CO. Temperatures east of the front in our area at 3 pm were in the lower and mid 90s.
Isolated showers associated with an upper trough will gradually diminish overnight. The trough will slowly move east through Saturday. Drier northerly flow behind the trough will end the showers in SE Oregon and most of SW Idaho on Saturday, except residual moisture will result in a slight chance of showers in the West Central/Boise Mountains. After a chilly day today, temperatures will be 4-8 degrees warmer (but still well below normal) in most locations on Saturday.
Temperatures should be cooler tomorrow as today, however heat indices will still be in the 90s.
923 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 A large area of high pressure will provide mild temperatures and mainly clear skies through the weekend. A strong upper level ridge will remain anchored over the region through this period and post tropical storm Jose moves farther off the east coast. Overnight lows will generally range in the lower to middle 50s with lows Saturday night in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs on Saturday will range in the lower to middle 80s.
inverted low level trough noted in RAP guidance is forecast to push inland over central FL and into srn portions of the our area.
A deep upper level trough will remain anchored across the western U. with a mid-upper level high centered across the Mississippi Valley.
With ample elevated instability, shear and a low freezing level, several storms could produce marginally severe hail this afternoon and evening.
Models indicate the low level lapse rates will be steep in the region overnight.
In the meantime, a summer-like pattern continues with temperatures once again in the lower 90's this afternoon, about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Higher up in the atmosphere, a weak upper- level low will be retrograding towards the Midsouth underneath a more dominant upper-level ridge concentrated to our north. This tug from the upper-level low will be what determines how close Maria gets to the outer banks of the Carolinas before ultimately being scooped up by a trough and taken further into the Atlantic.
646 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Strong ridging, sunny skies and brisk southerly winds ahead of the next cold front will keep the above normal temperatures in the region.
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose will continue to weaken as it lingers off the New England coast through the weekend. Meanwhile, high pressure will expand into the Mid-Atlantic. Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose continues to spin just off the coast of SE New England. High pressure at the surface and aloft will be in control of our weather pattern over the weekend, as PTC Jose weakens and shifts a bit further offshore. High pressure in combination with NNE flow will allow for continued dry weather and above normal temperatures.
Low pressure along it just west of Fargo if looking at the wind field. Low pressure will move along boundary toward Thief River Falls/Fosston area 03z period. Primary concern will be severe potential this afternoon and into this evening along and ahead of warm frontal boundary. CAM guidance all in good agreement in keeping warm sector dry with capping and best potential along and ahead of warm front over northern MN. If storms can become surface based will have to watch tor potential with warm front in place. With cooler airmass in place, instability weak so strong storms not anticipated.
Isolated showers have popped up from roughly Walnut Ridge south to near Helena Arkansas this past hour. In the meantime, a summer-like pattern continues with temperatures once again in the lower 90's this afternoon, about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Higher up in the atmosphere, a weak upper- level low will be retrograding towards the Midsouth underneath a more dominant upper-level ridge concentrated to our north. This tug from the upper-level low will be what determines how close Maria gets to the outer banks of the Carolinas before ultimately being scooped up by a trough and taken further into the Atlantic.
An upper level trough spinning over the Great Basin and Northern Rockies will slowly shift eastward tonight and Saturday. Airmass has becomes unstable over the mountains and nearby plains this afternoon ahead of the upper level trough. Expect isolated to scattered showers and storms to move across the higher terrain through early evening. A cold front will drop south across the eastern plains late this afternoon and evening. Expect lighter precipitation for the higher terrain and Front Range. Will lean towards the cooler NAM because of the expected cloud cover, but will not go as cold.
731 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Jose and Maria continue off the east coast with a ridge of high pressure from east Texas to Great Lakes. Deep trough over the western Conus. Dry air being entrained from the southwest where tds in the low 40s. Areas of rain continuing as energy streams out of the trough to the west and abundant moisture advection coming across southern into central plains.
The upper level trough is centered from western Montana to northern Nevada. This is placing the forecast area on the backside of the trough under a cool northerly flow. Saturday the upper level trough ever so slowly will continue moving east as an upper level ridge builds into the Pacific Northwest from the west.
Low temperatures will range from the lower 40s northwest to around 60 southeast.
Cool conditions will persist over the weekend as strong low pressure moves into the southern Great Basin.
Sharply cooler air will build into the region by midweek as a cold front tracks across the area. As it does low level flow trajectories will a bit more easterly and temper otherwise hot thermal ridge. Upper ridge will slowly breakdown by Tue in response to ern seaboard approach of HRCN Maria and wwd ejection of lead sw impulse through the nrn plains and subsequently collapse late week in response to potent sw trough digging sewd out of Canada into the Great Lakes. In the transistion poorly forced and moisture limited cold front will push through the area late Tue night-Wed morning and hold with minimalistic pops. High pressure setting up to the northeast of the area will continue to provide plenty of dry air to the region through the forecast period.
Not much change from yesterday's corresponding model runs as we remain under southwest flow aloft due to a longwave trough over the Intermountain West states. At the sfc, an area of low pressure currently located over northeast South Dakota will continue to advance northeastward into north-central Minnesota by this evening. The low pressure system will bring with it a sharp baroclinic zone, which will act as the focal point for tonight's activity, which is expected to develop over north-central Minnesota.
A ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific will gradually nose into the Pacific Northwest over the next several days.
Will make no mention of precip in this TAF package as high pressure and increasingly drier air settles over the region.
1148 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Jose and Maria continue off the east coast with a ridge of high pressure from east Texas to Great Lakes. Deep trough over the western Conus. Dry air being entrained from the southwest where tds in the low 40s. Areas of rain continuing as energy streams out of the trough to the west and abundant moisture advection coming across southern into central plains.
An upper low over northern Nevada will head southeast into southern Utah late Saturday, then turn northeast towards Wyoming late in the weekend. An upper level low over the western Great Basin will gradually shift south and then east over the weekend.
Lingering moist air under a weak inversion leading to some stratocumulus development this afternoon but otherwise lots of sunshine and slightly warmer temps. Highs Saturday will continue to trend warmer but still 4-8 degrees below normal.
Normals for this time of year are in the lower 80s. The high that was to our west has slowly shifted through the day and is positioned to our north. Models are in pretty good agreement in bringing the low that has been located over NC/SC westward across the TN Valley on Saturday.
1209 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 Upper ridge will remain anchored over the area, providing nearly calm wind conditions (outside late day lake breeze considerations) and mainly clear skies. The warm, humid airmass associated with the ridge will allow for some patchy fog development overnight with MVFR to perhaps a BRIEF period of IFR vsbys near sunrise, mainly DTW/YIP/PTK. The first day of fall is probably warmer all around then any day this past summer. This persistence will continue through the weekend as the center of the upper level ridge will remain parked over lower Michigan. Highs and lows will be about the same as today's through the weekend with heat indices in the low to mid 90s along with mainly clear skies and light winds.
829 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 A large area of high pressure will provide mild temperatures and mainly clear skies through the weekend. A strong upper level ridge will remain anchored over the region through this period and post tropical storm Jose moves farther off the east coast. Overnight lows will generally range in the lower to middle 50s with lows Saturday night in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs on Saturday will range in the lower to middle 80s.
Short Term Update - Light northeast to east flow will continue through the overnight period due to a ridge over the eastern United States and Maria east of the central Bahamas. High pressure over the eastern United States and Maria east of the central Bahamas will result in light northeast to east flow across Keys waters through the overnight period.
A vigorous upper level trough currently over California, Nevada and Utah is advancing toward west-central Texas.
1138 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Despite the calendar indicating the beginning of fall this afternoon, the persistent upper level ridge over the area will keep the summer-like temperatures around through Saturday.
The onshore flow, a weakening ridge aloft, and somewhat increase in instability, being slightly influenced by Maria, mainly breaking down the 500mb ridge as it moves north, remaining well to the east, may cause some increased activity in the pre-dawn hours as well. /issued 337 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017/ A large ridge over the eastern US and Hurricane Maria staying well east, is forecast to keep the flow across the region on the light side.
Sharply cooler air will build into the region by midweek as a cold front tracks across the area. As it does low level flow trajectories will a bit more easterly and temper otherwise hot thermal ridge. Upper ridge will slowly breakdown by Tue in response to ern seaboard approach of HRCN Maria and wwd ejection of lead sw impulse through the nrn plains and subsequently collapse late week in response to potent sw trough digging sewd out of Canada into the Great Lakes. In the transistion poorly forced and moisture limited cold front will push through the area late Tue night-Wed morning and hold with minimalistic pops. High pressure will continue to support light/variable winds, mainly clear skies, and dry conditions.
(This evening through tonight) Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 The Northern Plains continues to sit under strong southwesterly flow aloft, between the upper level trough over the Western U. , and a large scale ridge over the eastern states. 5 inch plus precipitable water values will continue to fuel showers and scattered thunderstorms along this boundary as the large scale upper level trough slowly pushes east over the weekend.
There's been a weak inverted trough there focusing convergence, and this will need to be watched overnight. The general pattern with a mid-upper level trough in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and moist, breezy onshore flow suggest a chance for heavy rain along the coast. It also shows a southward progression down the coast of the higher amounts, which is common with coastal rain events.
Expect more of the same for Saturday as an upper ridging keeps convection at ease.
The central Rockies are positioned on the eastern fringes of a deep trough centered over the northern Great Basin. A few weak thunderstorms will continue through early evening along with numerous quick-moving showers, before precipitation transitions to scattered showers overnight in the higher terrain as instability wanes. Aloft, the western trough will cut off with an upper-level low remaining nearly stationary in central Utah.
Look for a quiet next 24 hours as ridging aloft continues to dominate the weather across eastern KS. Warm and humid conditions will remain in place since the surface front will remain nearly stationary across NE and CO as the deep upper trough continues to dig across the West. Only minor change in weather appears to be weak CAA as the low level thermal ridge and upper level ridge shifts northeast on Saturday. This should keep highs a degree or two cooler than today. Main focus for the forecast remains the high amplitude trough that is out west moving closer to the area with a frontal boundary.
The upper ridge is blocking the western trough from making any eastward progress but the trough to the east is not moving much either.
1016 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose will continue to weaken as it lingers off the New England coast through the weekend. Meanwhile, high pressure will expand into the Mid-Atlantic. Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose continues to spin just off the coast of SE New England. High pressure has centered over the Northeast. High pressure at the surface and aloft will be in control of our weather pattern over the weekend, as PTC Jose weakens and shifts a bit further offshore. High pressure in combination with NNE flow will allow for continued dry weather and above normal temperatures.
A slow moving upper level low pressure system will move through the region tonight.
821 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Variable winds and a clear sky are prevailing across the TN Valley tonight underneath the southern flank of a ridge of high pressure. A weak retrograding upper low moving across the northern Gulf coast and AL/GA will not have much effect on the weather tonight given that the flow has decoupled at the surface and the stable environment. This will be the most pronounced near the rivers, lakes, and valleys where wind flow is the least and dewpoint depressions are the lowest. Otherwise, temperatures are dropping pretty much as forecast with current measurements in the low to mid 70s while dewpoint temperatures hold close to 70 degrees. Models are in pretty good agreement in bringing the low that has been located over NC/SC westward across the TN Valley on Saturday.
Weak lift associated with the mid and upper level trough/elongated upper low will continue to aid some of this convective development along with leftover mesoscale boundary interactions. Have raised PoPs a bit higher over the eastern counties, as low-level easterly flow is pushing air parcels up and over the higher ridgetops.
Cold front will move east and extend thru the BJI/PKD/FFM areas tonight. Primary concern will be severe potential this afternoon and into this evening along and ahead of warm frontal boundary. CAM guidance all in good agreement in keeping warm sector dry with capping and best potential along and ahead of warm front over northern MN. If storms can become surface based will have to watch tor potential with warm front in place. With cooler airmass in place, instability weak so strong storms not anticipated.
520 PM MDT Fri Sep 22 2017 The latest satellite images had a large upper low spinning over the western CONUS with deep southwest flow over the CWA. A surface cold front had pushed completely through the CWA with gusty northwest winds and cooler air in its wake.
925 PM PDT Fri Sep 22 2017 A low pressure trough over the West will bring another cool day Saturday.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande valley and northern ranchlands the rest of tonight into early Sat morning as weak 500mb ridging across south Texas provides subsidence across the area. Tonight, convection should decrease shortly after sunset as the mid-level pattern remains fairly unsupportive of continuing activity with the ridge axis overhead through the Midwest and loss of daytime heating.
323 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017 Water vapor imagery this morning was showing an upper low centered over the central High Plains preparing to push into WRN KS. At the surface, large area of high pressure was pretty much in control over most of the central CONUS. Also, a cold front extended from ERN IA to ERN OK with cold air advection spilling into the central Plains.
The closed upper low over southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle early today will move east of the forecast area allowing for an upper ridge to build in over the Panhandles today and tonight.
342 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017 Very weak trough axis showing up with a gentle convergence zone from Vermilion Bay to Baton Rouge to near McComb this morning. A cold front will also make its way into that aforementioned area which will simply enhance sh/ts activity. A broad ridge of high pressure centered north of the coastal waters will keep a general east wind forecast through the end of the week.