Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
210 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2018 Area continues to be entrenched in cold northwest flow aloft as a deep long wave trough remains carved out over the eastern CONUS. At the surface, low pressure was moving through the Great Lakes region while high pressure was building southeast out of Manitoba Canada. For tonight, high pressure will continue to build southeast out of Canada into the Upper Mississippi River Valley Region, setting up another bitter cold night with light northwest winds. Another bitter cold night set for Thursday night as ridge of high pressure moves overhead.
Conversely have kept temps slightly cooler during the day with cool air advection and the sky cover.
A weak cold front/surface boundary will briefly stall out across western Kansas this morning and then begin to slowly move back east as a warm front during the day as northwesterly down slope flow improves across eastern Colorado and far western Kansas. Even with a weak cold front briefly being located in western Kansas early today the net 24 hour temperature change in the 900mb to 850mb level warm from 00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday. Based on the forecast warming trend the highs today are expected to range from the low 30s across north central Kansas to the mid 40s across far western Kansas. Warmer temperatures will continue late week through the start of the weekend as an upper level ridge crosses the Rockies, and the westerly down slope flow improves.
We continue to be hopeful that most of Mid TN will climb above freezing this afternoon, albeit briefly, as another reinforcing shot of cold air is poised to arrive this evening. But, the high elevations from Jamestown to Monterey could have a dusting to 1/4 inch. VFR conditions expected this TAF period as a mix of low and high clouds early on becomes mainly lower clouds as another cold front moves across airports tonight.
The Hudson low's influence over Nebraska lessens as it pushes into New England and the H5 ridge centered over the Rockies broadens.
An upper ridge will translate east by the weekend and help to push temperatures up into the 20s and 30s.
1022 AM MST Wed Jan 3 2018 The upper level pattern for the next few days will feature a large upper ridge axis west of the Continental Divide and low pressure over the east/northeast part of the nation. For today high temperatures range from the low 30s east/northeast to near 50 west.
Associated snow is expected to remain light with some isolated amounts of 1-3 inches possible in our ridge counties with lesser amounts elsewhere. Passage of the front will reinforce the cold - wind chill advisory was added for the ridge zones beginning late tonight, and the rest of Preston was added to wind chill watch for Thursday night. Mid level low pressure will drop swd across the Great Lakes region and reinforce the ERN CONUS trough, and resultant cold for the remainder of the week. A Wind Chill Advisory is a sure bet, and a rare Wind Chill Warning may be needed in the ridges, where wind chill values may fall below -25F. The Wind Chill Watch remains in place for the ridges, and was expanded to include the ridges of ern Monongalia and nwrn Preston Counties.
Breezy northerly winds this afternoon will weaken overnight as high pressure settles over the region. Highs should push into the lower 40s across the area by this afternoon. Another day of slightly elevated nrly flow, albeit lighter than the past few days, is expected again today with high pressure centered to our west. A deep upper trough remains in place over the east 2/3 of the country, and short wave that brought flurries to the area is departing to the east as it rounds the base of the larger trough. Regardless of how low the area will still see several hours at or below freezing.
looking for lows to drop only into the lower to mid teens. With temps below freezing. will continue mention of freezing fog in the forecast for there. H5 ridging to the west combined with west-northwest surface flow will bring the area above normal high temps ranging from around 40F east up to the upper 40s to near 50F west.
Otherwise, patchy freezing fog will persist across the upper foothills and portions of north-central and central OR, mainly between 2000 and 3000 feet in elevation. High temperatures will hover around freezing for the lower elevations, with mid 30s to lower 40s for most mountain locations as well as central OR. Low level inversions will continue as upper level ridging remains anchored overhead with stratus across the region. BDN will likely remain in the LIFR stratus/freezing fog through much of the day.
High pressure aloft will prevail today. The high will shift east tonight, allowing a disturbance to approach from the southwest.
301 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2018 Another cold night ahead as high pressure settles south and dry air is in place.
High pressure will control our weather today and bring a brief respite from the cold. After the cold front passes late Thursday, temperatures will plummet and lake effect snow will begin to flow into Upstate New York.
243 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2018 Steep ridging over the western CONUS and a deep Hudson Bay trough extending through the Great Lakes will result in upper level NW flow over the MS River Valley Region of the country. At the surface, high pressure building over the Plains and a "bombing" low moving northward just off the eastern seaboard will result in a tighter pressure gradient over the SE US tonight and early tomorrow. Dry weather with limited cloud cover will return tomorrow as high pressure continues to filter into the region. Temperatures tomorrow should rise above freezing again through the region with some 40s getting as far north as the I-20 corridor. The large upper trough will remain parked across the eastern half of the nation, with cold high pressure at the surface.
1106 AM CST Wed Jan 3 2018 Quite a bit warmer this morning across the region than the previous few mornings, with temperatures in the middle to upper teens. Still, expect cold air advection to stymie temperatures through the day, relegating day time highs to the lower teens up north, and 20s, toward the I-70 corridor. Early this morning, there could be some light snow in far northwest Missouri, behind the cold front, where a weak PV anomaly gets just enough lift to get some marginal saturation in the Dendritic Growth Zone.
311 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2018 After around 90 straight hours of freezing, it looks like all of Mid TN has climbed out of the freezer today, at least briefly. This moisture will result in mainly flurries late tonight through mid morning Thursday, but the highest elevations that usually benefit from upslope flow, generally from Jamestown to Monterey, could have a quarter inch of fluffy flakes.
Northerly winds will begin the day but with a surface ridging shifting to the south winds will swing around to the southwest this afternoon. The western CONUS ridge will move over the Rockies for the rest of this week but we will still be in northwest flow aloft locally. This upper ridge will break down this weekend with a progressive short wave trough moving across the central Rockies.
Clouds played havoc way more than initially expected last night and morning lows were far warmer than anticipated but still finally got below freezing in many locations. High pressure will be more situated over the region, winds will be light through the first 2-3k ft, and dewpoints will still be rather low.
924 AM MST Wed Jan 3 2018 Upper level ridge of high pressure continues to build over the Pacific Northwest. As a result warmer temperatures will slowly move back into North Central and Southwest Montana over the next few days.
328 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2018 Temperatures have risen above freezing today as cold airmass has moved east and downslope winds have brought warming temperatures.
Despite the front, temperatures today will be much warmer than those yesterday, with most areas rising above freezing for the first time in several days. Meanwhile back at home, temperatures have moderated some and many areas today will warm a bit above freezing for the first time in several days.
Temps are tad warmer than forecast so making some adjustments there. Expecting temps to hold steady this afternoon as colder air tries to advect into the area behind the departing trough. and building warmer temperatures over the Rockies and the west coast. As a result, most of Central IL will start the day in the teens, warmer than it has been the last couple days.
Have the highest confidence across NW MN where temps will be the coldest as skies remain clear the longest with light winds and lows in the 15 to 25 below range will be issuing a wind chill advisory through 11am Thursday morning. Will be a bit more marginal of an event as winds will be light with high pressure ridge axis overhead. A warmer night for the valley and points to the west as increasing clouds limit temp drop off overnight. Center of high pressure with the lightest winds should be east of forecast area during this time preventing a true bottoming out but 20 below is certainly possible from Baudette down to Park Rapids. The next bubble of high pressure propagating southward Wed will lower temps a few notches for mid week.
Today will see all of the Panhandles warm above the freezing mark as highs reach into the 40s and 50s.
250 PM MST Wed Jan 3 2018 Upper analysis shows a broadening upper ridge over the western CONUS. At the surface, cold high pressure is located over most of the Great Plains with a week lee-side trough developing to the east of the northern Rockies. Dry weather with slightly warmer temperatures expected on Thursday as the upper ridge over the western CONUS shifts slightly eastward toward the northern plains.
Another very dry early winter day for north central and northeast Colorado on the northeast quad of a strong upper ridge to our west. the upper ridge backs away a bit allowing a stronger northwest flow aloft to funnel high clouds down from western wyoming overnight.
SW winds ahead of an approaching cold front is bringing milder air into the region. Most places, except along the KY/MO border, will climb above freezing, albeit briefly this afternoon. A cold front will push through this afternoon with colder temps filtering in tonight. Although, temperatures will rise to freezing or just above for a couple of hours today across much of the area before dropping back below freezing behind a cold front. Arctic high pressure will gradually build back into the Mid-South.
1000 AM MST Wed Jan 3 2018 Made minor changes to add the mention of flurries/sprinkles for many of the lower elevations today. Accumulating snow is not anticipated in the lower elevations today as the low levels are too dry and much of the precipitation should evaporate before hitting the ground. High amplitude flow exists across the CONUS, with a ridge in the west and trof/cold air across the east. The remainder of the short term period will remain dry as the upper level ridge remains in control of our weather. Upper ridge w/ persistent downslope pressure gradients will allow for a continued warming trend today and Thursday. Drainage down the Clarks Fork could hold temps back some from Bridger to Billings today.
Patchy freezing fog and/or low stratus, will redevelop for many valley locations across western Montana and north-central Idaho tomorrow morning.
In south central GA, highs will likely remain in the mid-upper 30s as overcast skies should linger into the afternoon and limit heating; also, light snow cover could keep temperatures slightly cooler near and east of the I-75 corridor.
Temperatures are trending warmer than originally forecast, so we have increased them a degree or so across the region. Drier air and high pressure finally have moved into the region to clear things out after persistent cloud cover over the past several days. We will maintain the Hard Freeze Warning through 10 AM, after which time temperatures should rise above freezing. This should keep high temperatures a couple of degrees cooler in many areas Thursday than today.
It looks like portions of Harper county may rise to the upper 30s or around 40 degrees while those in Chase and Allen county remain in the lower 30s for highs.
/ISSUED 1000 AM CST Wed Jan 3 2018/ Surface ridging and mostly clear to clear skies will allow for temperatures to warm into the lower to mid 40s across Southeast Texas today.
The high clouds from this wave has actually helped to break up valley stratus and improved visibility in areas where it isn't snowing. Western Montana valleys will be most susceptible to the snow occurring due to the low stratus (moisture source) that has developed over the past several days. The weak storm system and snowfall will have a small moderating effect on area valley temperatures, however most locations will remain decidedly in freezing temperatures. Similar to the light snow event today, the Thursday late night feature has the potential to produce widespread very light precipitation, mostly in the form of snow and freezing rain.
Today through Thursday evening, upper ridge will build into the northern plains with neutral to warm air advection in the lower troposphere.
upper ridge expanding eastward over Colorado today. After a chilly start this morning, subsident downslope flow under the ridge will result in dry and mild weather across the entire forecast area by afternoon.
Early this morning, a cold front was located across the area. This cold air and high pressure are main weather drivers in the short term. Overall there is a decent spread in the guidance with the GEM again being the lowest.
Winds will come in from the southwest today ahead of an approaching cold front, allowing temperatures to rise well into the 20s, and possibly lower 30s in southern Kentucky. Any Lake Michigan influence behind the cold front should remain to our north and east. High temperatures Thursday will only be in the teens as cold air comes in from arctic high pressure stretching from the Canadian Archipelago to the Gulf of Mexico.
This should bring an end to any flurries and/or blowing/drifting snow threat by 12Z-14Z, with clear to partly cloudy skies and cooler temperatures expected to rule the remainder of the day.
1123 AM CST Wed Jan 3 2018 Early this morning water vapor imagery showed an upper trough swinging southeastward while surface analysis revealed an associated cold front sliding through the area. Remaining snow showers/flurries will continue to decrease as drier air/subsidence works in behind the departing upper wave and high pressure begins to sink south into the upper Midwest.
All zones will easily surpass freezing this afternoon for the first time in several days, with SW zones near 50. 12z MOS guidance has come in several degrees warmer, and with the bone dry ground, was confident to increase Thursday's max temperature grid several degrees across the board. Warmer temperatures will continue late week through the start of the weekend as an upper level ridge crosses the Rockies, and the westerly down slope flow improves.
Highs should push into the lower 40s across the area by this afternoon. Another day of slightly elevated nrly flow, albeit lighter than the past few days, is expected again today with high pressure centered to our west. A deep upper trough remains in place over the east 2/3 of the country, and short wave that brought flurries to the area is departing to the east as it rounds the base of the larger trough. Regardless of how low the area will still see several hours at or below freezing.
Mostly clear skies today under the upper level ridge. Temperatures will warm above freezing again this afternoon in most areas with the Lower Treasure Valley remaining the coldest spot in the forecast area. Clouds will increase tonight ahead of a weak warm frontal passage expected Thursday. GFS remains the outlier showing the highest QPF however it only amounts to a few hundreds on an inch. Soundings indicate precipitation will fall as snow though it may be possible to see brief freezing rain across Southeast Oregon in the afternoon.
We continue to be hopeful that most of Mid TN will climb above freezing this afternoon, albeit briefly, as another reinforcing shot of cold air is poised to arrive this evening. But, the high elevations from Jamestown to Monterey could have a dusting to 1/4 inch.
1044 AM MST Wed Jan 3 2018 Imagery shows amplified ridge ovr the wrn CONUS with a dry embedded SW Trof moving swd through MT/WY into a large broad Trof across the rest of the ern CONUS.
327 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2018 The upper level Hudson Bay low and longwave trough storm system over the east coast. combined with the west coast upper level ridge. will result in keeping surface arctic high pressure over eastern parts of the Northern Plains (including the northeast half of ND) and moderating Pacific air over western portions of the Northern Plains and Front Range (including the southwestern half of ND).
A quick moving cold front will sweep across Central Indiana today. arctic high pressure system builds across the region.
158 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2018 After spending 3 days below freezing, most areas finally warmed above freezing by late this morning. Tonight won't be quite as cold as what we saw last night (lows in the teens across much of the area) but expect another cold night with readings well below freezing, perhaps in the 20s. One thing is for sure, cloud cover will increase quite a bit so temperatures will be similar to today with highs generally in the low to mid 50s.
Otherwise, patchy freezing fog will persist across the upper foothills and portions of north-central and central OR, mainly between 2000 and 3000 feet in elevation. High temperatures will hover around freezing for the lower elevations, with mid 30s to lower 40s for most mountain locations as well as central OR. Low level inversions will continue as upper level ridging remains anchored overhead with stratus across the region.
1253 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 Ceilings have been slow to lift this morning with the passage of cold front through the region. Winds have increased out of the NNW around 20 knots gusting 30 to 35 knots as a developing low pressure system over the Atlantic moves northward.
A subsident NW flow aloft, sunny skies and dry conditions will lead to warmer temps today and Thu with highs in the upper 40s to around 50 today and in the 50s Thu. Freezing temps are anticipated once again tonight with lows in the mid 20s to around 30.
Temperatures are trending warmer than originally forecast, so we have increased them a degree or so across the region. We will maintain the Hard Freeze Warning through 10 AM, after which time temperatures should rise above freezing. This should keep high temperatures a couple of degrees cooler in many areas Thursday than today.
305 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2018 The Four-State Region has finally warmed to above freezing late this aftn /lower 40s/, courtesy of plentiful insolation and a slight westerly sfc wind component. This evening, a weak cold front will translate across the region, and veer sfc winds to the north- northwest thus providing a reinforcing shot of cold air.
1036 AM MST Wed Jan 3 2018 The Western Ridge will continue to be effective at keeping precipitation pinned to the left coast or well to our north through this short term period. Probably the biggest change to forecast was the Gunnison Basin where highs may struggle to hit the freezing mark today.
However, SPC has placed locations mainly north of I-40 and west of I-65 in a marginal risk for svr tstms with hail and strong to damaging winds the main concerns ahead of the approaching cold front from the cntrl plains as the Sat afternoon and at least into the Sat evening hrs progress. After this activity, the weather pattern will be characterized by broad upper level troughing influences across the mid state region transitioning to nwly upper level flow as apex spine of strong upper level ridging influences build across the MS river valley region.
High pressure ridge remains just north of the area with prevailing flow sfc through 2 km from the east-southeast. Models indicate though that flow in the low levels will veer and allow increasing moisture to advance into our srn zones through Friday morning.
Despite the brisk onshore flow, most of the shras will dissipate as they push west of the Gulf Stream and into the cooler shelf waters. Poor boating conditions continue, esp over the Treasure Coast waters as a high pres ridge centered over the Carolinas maintains a moderate to fresh easterly acrs the lcl Atlc overnight.
Under mostly clear skies and light winds overnight, temperatures will fall into the lower and mid 30s in central and north-central Wisconsin. The highest rain chances will be found south of Interstate 90.
High pressure near Dauphin Manitoba this aftn will move slowly east-southeast tonight and be near Baudette by 12z Fri. A bit warmer in the southern RRV and west central MN where a few more high clouds psbl and airmass not as dry. High pressure to our east with ridging back west into the RRV to keep our area dry thru the daytime Friday. Thicker clouds in the far southern fcst area to keep them a bit cooler than today, while northern half of fcst area to see more sun and a bit warmer readings.
649 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017 The low pressure system that moved through yesterday and last night, is still departing to the east with widespread low clouds in cyclonic circulation on the back side. The clouds have been eroding across northern MN as high pressure across south central Canada pushes in from the north. The northerly flow is also bringing some pretty chilly air down from Canada as 850H temps are now flirting with the freezing mark. We will have to watch the wind though because with the high well to our north, we may keep a slight breeze in our area tonight, whereas farther north confidence is higher that temperatures will dip. Early afternoon water vapor imagery together Rap13 heights and winds showed a powerful cyclone approaching the TX/OK panhandles.
Near-term forecast concerns are heavy rainfall potential across A prominent mid-level cyclone was analyzed over the central Rockies as of early afternoon with an associated vorticity lobe and attending jet streak pivoting northeast across the central and southern High Plains. At the surface, 19z analysis depicted an area of low pressure over southwest KS with an accompanying quasi-stationary front stretching northeast into northern MO.
546 PM MDT Thu May 18 2017 A weak upper level ridge of high pressure will try to build over the Pacific Northwest tonight through Friday. A few light showers are possible early this evening as the main upper level low from yesterday pulls away into the central Plains states. Afternoon temperatures on Friday will be a touch warmer than today for most areas. An unsettled northwest flow aloft will develop through the weekend with broad ridging over the U.
/26/ Tonight through Friday, A warmer than normal and moist weather pattern will persist over the ArkLaMiss tonight through Friday as a mid level ridge center remains anchored near the southern Atlantic Coast region. As was the case today, diurnal convective precipitation will develop Friday given plenty of instability and sufficient deep layer moisture, but relative warmth in the mid levels of the atmosphere associated with ridge should help to limit thunder potential.
917 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017 At 01z, a weak area of low pressure was located over the Texas panhandle.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 86 67 91 / 40 40 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 83 66 89 / 40 40 20 30 Oak Ridge, TN 67 83 66 90 / 50 50 20 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 81 63 87 / 40 50 20 50.
the ability of stronger lift to fully saturate the column, though greater consensus shows light showers nearing the Highway 14 corridor at some point Friday morning, so will stick with at least likely pops to Highway 14, limiting the chance range to our extreme northeast around Ivanhoe/Marshall.
Temperatures prevailed in the lower 80s, expect over northeast MS, where mid/upper 70s prevailed in a more humid airmass. A lot will depend on the strength of the line as it pushes across Arkansas as the upper ridge remains fairly strong across the Mid-South.