Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Northwest winds will ensue as the low pulls away. Still expecting mild temps for Wednesday though clouds and a slightly cooler thermal profile will keep things more in the upper 30s to low 40s. A weak trough moves through Wednesday night but for now will go with a dry forecast.
1050 AM MST Tue Feb 23 2021 Mid and high clouds will be increasing over the northern two- thirds of the forecast area as a low amplitude mid-level trough brushes the northern zones from late morning through the afternoon. Winds aloft increase over the northwest Colorado Plateau in response to the tightening pressure gradient associated with the trough's passage, so expect modestly breezy conditions there this afternoon. A more amplified mid-level trough moves from the Pacific Northwest to northern Utah on Wednesday. Cooler temperatures anticipated across the north as a the cold front associated with this system eases southward to near the I-70 corridor during the day.
A broad longwave trough located over the northern Rockies will keep eastern Utah and western Colorado in a northwest-flow regime this evening and overnight. However, forecast soundings indicate plenty of dry air in the low- levels below this feature, and short- term guidance continues to show hardly anything reaching the ground through the evening/overnight, even in the far northern mountains.
Not as much wind for Wednesday in the post-frontal air mass, with cooler highs 25 to 35 degrees.
A week ago the low temp at Tulsa was 13 below. As of 1 PM this afternoon, the temp is 80 degrees warmer, with a reading of 67 degrees. This has lead to much warmer temperatures.
A strong cold front moved through overnight and has now cleared the area.
Look for winds to become light and southerly as increasing moisture advection limits our minimum temperatures to the low 40s. As a result, high temperatures in the low 70s are the result of raising it several degrees above suggested guidance from both DMO and the NBM, and I would not be shocked to see it raised even higher into the mid 70s.
1014 AM MST Tue Feb 23 2021 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over northeast MT, with warm front extending southeast through the northern high Plains and a cold front trailing back through central MT and into eastern ID. Another windy day is in store for much of the area, especially for northwest into west central SD, as cold front to the west moves quickly through the region today. Accumulations to several inches are certainly possible over some areas of the northern and northwestern Black Hills through Wednesday, especially the higher elevations. The convective nature to the snow could produce at least locally higher amounts over the higher northwestern Black Hills.
Any precipitation that occurs over Southeast Lower Michigan will be limited to light rain/snow showers or drizzle as a cold front settles into the region in the wake of this system early Wednesday morning. Temperatures will remain mild within southwest flow tonight with lows generally in the lower 30s. Temperatures will then run up to near 40 again on Wednesday before cooler air begins to deepen over the area by late in the day.
A dry cold front will push through northern Utah this morning. Weak cold front living up to its name across northern Utah, weak as far as producing any precipitation. The winds over the northern mountains have been rather strong this morning with gusts between 50-60 mph across the ridge lines such as Logan Summit and Ogden Peak. The ridge tops of the central Wasatch Mountains have reached 80+ mph. The low and mid level clouds have been dissipating rapidly across the north in the wake of the cold front with sunny skies expected for the remainder of the day. In addition, temperatures were adjusted upwards by a couple of degrees across the north as more sunshine this afternoon and only weak cold advection will support the warmer temperatures.
(This evening through Wednesday) A surface cyclone has developed along the lee of the Rockies in the OK/TX Panhandle, allowing for southerly winds to overspread the area. This evening, the aforementioned cyclone will move towards the southeast and an attendant cold front will sweep through the area. The low temperatures tonight and the high temperatures tomorrow will remain near normal as the cooler airmass comes through.
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Yet another cold front will invade west Texas by late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
158 PM CST Tue Feb 23 2021 The rather quiet weather pattern will continue for the latter half of the week with cooler temperatures, though closer to seasonal climo. The associated cold front and modified Canadian-Pacific air will move south across Kansas dropping temperatures back some 20 degrees or so on Wednesday.
Zonal upper level flow will develop over the Southeast on the north side of upper level high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico. Surface over high pressure over Louisiana shifts east in response, to over the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday evening. Combined with subsidence from the ridge over the Gulf, temperatures rising well above seasonal norms are expected today. High temperatures in the low to mid 70s are expected over most of the forecast area, upper 60s along the immediate coast near to the cooler Gulf waters. Low temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s expected over the majority of the forecast area, a bit warmer along the coast.
1024 AM MST Tue Feb 23 2021 Forecast challenges deal with strong winds today ahead of an approaching cold front. Decided to expand the High WInd Warnings to cover the southern Panhandle 18Z to 00Z today.
1055 AM EST Tue Feb 23 2021 Winds will remain brisk today as a deep low pressure area tracks north across southern Canada.
308 PM EST Tue Feb 23 2021 A cold front, which has moved through most of South Florida, still has a few hours left before exiting the area. Behind the front, models show high pressure building over Florida, but quickly traversing the state and setting up to the east northeast of the area, bringing an easterly flow back to the region tomorrow.
1136 AM CST Tue Feb 23 2021 Despite clear skies overnight, robust ridging aloft and a very mild air mass over the region has kept temperatures quite warm overnight. Westerly winds could gust 30 to 35 mph around sunset, but a quickly forming nocturnal inversion should reduce mixing as this cold front moves southeastward overnight. Troughy northwest flow aloft Wednesday keeps relatively dry continental air over the region.
Southwest surface winds 15 to 25 mph or 20 to 30 mph with gusts near 40 mph will shift to the west and then northwest before becoming north 15 to 25 mph or 20 to 30 mph with gusts near 40 mph after the passage of the cold front. Cooler conditions expected after the passage of the cold front tonight with temps below normal Wednesday.
154 PM EST Tue Feb 23 2021 High pressure will build over the area through Wednesday.
VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours as high pressure dominates the region. AC Chattanooga Airport, TN 40 70 44 61 42 / 0 0 10 10 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 40 67 42 56 37 / 0 0 20 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 38 67 41 57 36 / 0 0 20 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 35 66 39 54 29 / 0 10 20 10 10.
1019 AM EST Tue Feb 23 2021 Mild, Pacific high pressure will expand across the Southeast through Wednesday.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): High pressure builds across the Gulf of Mexico and heads east, while weak low pressure meanders southeast across North Texas and into East Texas or Louisiana by Wednesday night. The stalled frontal boundary currently offshore lifts north as a warm front into Wednesday and the cold front associated with the North Texas low slowly approaches central to southern Texas late Wednesday night. Temperatures will remain well above normal through the short term, with highs into the 80s everywhere except the coast and lows into the low to mid 60s.
Frontal passage is expected to be dry with winds shifting to the north-northwest as high pressure builds in behind the front.
/Tonight through Tuesday/ Southerly winds cranked up the warm advection into the area today and temperatures along and south of interstate 80 have exceeded expectations today - not that anyone is complaining - as temperatures soared into the low 50s this afternoon. A series of perturbations through the broad trough will move across the area through the end of the week, mainly dry with primary impact on temperatures that flirt at or slightly above average for this time of year.
Will see a cold front move through late tonight. Wednesday will see weak cold air advection with nnw winds, but still expect high temperatures in the low/mid 50s.
However, the very strong high wind gusts are no longer expected so the high wind warning for these areas has been allowed to expire. Expect a cooler day today with cold advection. Winds should increase again this morning with some gusts of 50-55mph, but with 700mb winds decreasing through the morning, will let the High Wind Warning go. Will not change the highlights for the plains.
Later tonight and Wednesday, a weak cold front will push through Arkansas from the Plains. Once again seeing a wide range in predawn temps this mrng with sheltered locations AOB freezing, with 40s and lower 50s common elsewhere. Cooler and drier air wl filter in behind the fnt.
Warmer weather will continue through the rest of the week with some patchy fog possible tonight.
The low in Tulsa last Tuesday was -13. With forecast highs in the lower/mid 70s today we're looking at a 85+ degree 7-day temperature swing.
238 PM CST Tue Feb 23 2021 Zonal flow aloft and low pressure over the eastern Dakotas has ushered in a mild late winter air mass. Tonight After the mild day, temperatures will cool off into the 30s tonight with areas along and northwest of a Freeport to Quad Cities to Memphis line falling to near or below freezing. Wednesday A cold front will move through the area Wednesday morning, leading to breezy NW winds of 15-25 mph.
Southerly to south- southwesterly winds of 5 to 12 kt and increasing upper and mid-level clouds should prevent temps from falling much until the arrival of a weak cold front late tonight into early Wednesday morning when temps will drop further into the mid-30Fs and mid-40Fs. Passage of this cold front is expected to be dry; however, low-level moisture convergence just ahead of the front may increase enough to yield a shower or two across southeastern MO and southwestern IL as progresses southeastward. The post- frontal airmass advected into the region by the low-level flow will be relatively mild with 850-hPa temps only slowly falling to between 1 and -3.
146 PM CST Tue Feb 23 2021 Upper ridge extending up across the region today is producing warm weather.
Cold advection in the wake of this system is very limited, but will be sufficient to support a prolonged mixing layer into the higher elevations, where POPs will linger into the afternoon. Passage of that trough/cold front will bring another shower chance on Wednesday afternoon, but problems with any showers combined with melting are not anticipated given limited moisture and system progression.
Southwest winds continue across the area, but latest surface obs snow the cold front making its way across the Sandhills towards the area. Behind this front, we will see significantly cooler temperatures on Wednesday with highs in the upper 30s and 40s.
Under the influence of high pressure again Wednesday, it will be another stellar day. Daytime high temperatures are expected to be at least a few degrees warmer than today's.
340 PM EST Tue Feb 23 2021 Mild, Pacific high pressure will expand across the Southeast through Wednesday.
221 PM CST Tue Feb 23 2021 After a sunny and very mild day Tuesday, expect increasing clouds and slightly cooler temperatures Wednesday as a weak cold front moves across the region. Meanwhile, off to our northwest, low pressure is analyzed over eastern South Dakota this afternoon. A trailing cold front will move across the region overnight into Wednesday morning while high pressure begins to build into the region from the west. Presuming cloudy skies and the cooler air mass behind the front, temperatures will somewhat tempered Wednesday, topping out in the upper 30s NW to lower 50s SE, while much of central Illinois is expected to top out in the 40s.
VFR is expected to prevail this afternoon into this evening, with light south winds as high pressure departs to the east.
225 PM EST Tue Feb 23 2021 Mild, Pacific high pressure will expand across the Southeast through Wednesday.
With the system traversing the area, the central portions of the region is light/variable, western areas are trending northerly with gusts into the 20 mph range and for eastern locales still ahead of the trough, south-southwesterly flow with gusts nearing 20-25 mph at times. Winds remain in check due to the movement/placement of the trough, and no more fires at this time since this morning. Gusty winds behind the trough are working into NW portions of the CWA and may aid in red flag conditions, but will slowly wane towards sunset. Going into tonight, the passage of the trough/front will usher in colder air returning the CWA to more normal temps.
528 PM CST Tue Feb 23 2021 The rather quiet weather pattern will continue for the latter half of the week with cooler temperatures, though closer to seasonal climo. The associated cold front and modified Canadian-Pacific air will move south across Kansas dropping temperatures back some 20 degrees or so on Wednesday.
The precipitation could end as some drizzle or freezing drizzle late tonight as there is no longer saturation where it is cold enough for ice crystals.
710 PM EST Tue Feb 23 2021 High pressure will then build in from the west and southwest through Wednesday night.
Temperatures turn a few degrees cooler for Wednesday, but with otherwise fair weather.
221 PM MST Tue Feb 23 2021 The cold front has crossed most of the state already, with varying changes to local wind fields across western and central WY. Upper level pattern remains from the northwest tonight and tomorrow as a midlevel trough drops southward across eastern ID into UT. Winds tonight will be lighter at the surface, so snowfall with this trough will be lower than today, generally 1 to 2 inches for the Tetons, Salts, and Wyomings.
Lower ceilings will accompany a passing cold front and introduce low-end MVFR ceilings through much of Wed.
Critical relative humidity below 15 percent is no longer expected as we lose daytime heating and are behind a cold frontal passage. With the system traversing the area, the central portions of the region is light/variable, western areas are trending northerly with gusts into the 20 mph range and for eastern locales still ahead of the trough, south-southwesterly flow with gusts nearing 20-25 mph at times. Winds remain in check due to the movement/placement of the trough, and no more fires at this time since this morning. Gusty winds behind the trough are working into NW portions of the CWA and may aid in red flag conditions, but will slowly wane towards sunset. Going into tonight, the passage of the trough/front will usher in colder air returning the CWA to more normal temps.
However, we no longer are expecting high wind criteria for most areas so the high wind warnings have been canceled for all but Fallon and Carter Counties.
927 PM EST Tue Feb 23 2021 High pressure will provide unseasonably mild conditions through Wednesday. A weak cold front may give a chance of rain in the mountains during Wednesday night.
924 PM EST Tue Feb 23 2021 High pressure will prevail through mid-week.
Cold front was located along the I-80 corridor and moving slowly southward. Not as much wind for Wednesday in the post-frontal air mass, with cooler highs 25 to 35 degrees.
458 PM MST Tue Feb 23 2021 NW winds in Carter and Fallon remain breezy but are now 30-40 mph or less, so have cancelled the High Wind Warning for these zones. However, we no longer are expecting high wind criteria for most areas so the high wind warnings have been canceled for all but Fallon and Carter Counties.
853 PM CST Tue Feb 23 2021 High pressure continues to move east this evening which has allowed southerly winds to continue across the Mid-South. Expect lows to drop into the lower to mid 40s. /issued 322 PM CST Tue Feb 23 2021/ Plenty of sunshine and southwesterly winds have warmed temperatures across the area into the mid 60s and into the low 70s in northeastern MS. As we head into tomorrow a weak cold front approaches the the area and by mid morning we could see some showers across the area.
These clouds precede the next low pressure system moving rapidly through the Midwest which is on schedule to move through central Lower MI during Wednesday. A few pockets of sprinkles are also possible as the cold front moves through the region Wednesday morning into early afternoon. Temperatures drift down and touch freezing at sunrise then recover above prior to the front. Any precipitation that occurs over Southeast Lower Michigan will be limited to light rain/snow showers or drizzle as a cold front settles into the region in the wake of this system early Wednesday morning. Temperatures will remain mild within southwest flow tonight with lows generally in the lower 30s. Temperatures will then run up to near 40 again on Wednesday before cooler air begins to deepen over the area by late in the day.
First, generally light precipitation is expected to wrap around the back-side of the low across northeastern SD and west central SD roughly from 01z to 07z. Second, gusty northerly winds are expected with the passage of the cold front/pressure trough, from west to east across the area this evening and tonight. Upon further investigation, high pressure rises, SNSQ parameter values of 1 to 2, and steep low-level lapse rates (decreasing with time though) do further hints at this potential. As for Wednesday, a bit cooler but still well above average temperatures are anticipated.
Warmer afternoon temperature are also expected. Passage of that trough/cold front will bring another shower chance on Wednesday afternoon, but problems with any showers combined with melting are not anticipated given limited moisture and system progression.
Sfc winds will veer overnight ahead of a weak cold front, which will fropa KMAF/KHOB around sunrise. /issued 146 PM CST Tue Feb 23 2021/ Upper ridge extending up across the region today is producing warm weather.
Zonal flow aloft and low pressure over the eastern Dakotas has ushered in a mild late winter air mass. Tonight After the mild day, temperatures will cool off into the 30s tonight with areas along and northwest of a Freeport to Quad Cities to Memphis line falling to near or below freezing. Wednesday A cold front will move through the area Wednesday morning, leading to breezy NW winds of 15-25 mph.
/issued 322 PM CST Tue Feb 23 2021/ Plenty of sunshine and southwesterly winds have warmed temperatures across the area into the mid 60s and into the low 70s in northeastern MS. As we head into tomorrow a weak cold front approaches the the area and by mid morning we could see some showers across the area.
613 PM CST Tue Feb 23 2021 (This evening through Wednesday) A surface cyclone has developed along the lee of the Rockies in the OK/TX Panhandle, allowing for southerly winds to overspread the area. This evening, the aforementioned cyclone will move towards the southeast and an attendant cold front will sweep through the area. The low temperatures tonight and the high temperatures tomorrow will remain near normal as the cooler airmass comes through.
Today Through Friday Night The upper-level ridge will build over the next few days with 500mb heights progged to top out around 590dam. A weak mid-level low is embedded within the ridge just south of the area but is forecast to drift south over the next day or two.
713 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 High pressure will prevail through this weekend. The high will weaken and shift inland as Hurricane Maria tracks northward off the Southeast U. An upper level trough axis extends through GA and the Carolinas while PWATs look to be more elevated across our GA zones nearing convective initiation this afternoon.
An upper level trough will maintain a chance of showers and cooler temperatures over Western Washington today, mainly over the mountains and over the lowlands from Seattle southward.
High pressure is already well to our east, situated over western Lake Superior and eastern MN. This will help usher in much warmer air as a warm front pushes north across eastern SD. Highs today will end up 6- 12F warmer than yesterday, topping out in the 80s for most.
Onshore winds should keep it a little cooler near the lake.
/issued 300 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017/ Wx map shows weak high pressure over the Southeast U. Increased moisture from the Eastern Gulf coupled with an deepening upper level low over the Southeast U.
1" values across portions of Deep South Texas and the Lower RGV. The overall weather pattern will begin to change today as the ridge of high pressure aloft shifts southward and flattens out over the next 36 hours as a large H5 trough digs across the Western CONUS.
630 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017 244 AM CDT A few festering showers will continue early this morning near the I-39 corridor ahead of a weakening cold front as it encroaches on an expansive ridge centered along the Appalachians. Meanwhile, an upper low is digging across the Pacific Northwest this morning and will approach the Intermountain West this evening. In response, southwest flow will increase across the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley today lifting a warm front into the far Upper Midwest which should be the focus for convection today. Deubelbeiss 244 AM CDT Large blocking high will be in place over the eastern half of the U.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 66 88 66 / 30 10 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 65 86 65 / 20 10 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 86 65 87 65 / 10 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 60 85 61 / 30 10 10 0.
With the low rain chances and uncertainty in forecast placement at this time, not carrying a TSRA mention at our TAF sites. /issued 338 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017/ (Today and Tonight) An upper level trough will deepen over the western states today and tonight. A downstream ridge will extend from East Texas to the northeast across the Midwest and eastern Great Lakes. With a weakness/subtle disturbance over our area on the southwestern portion of this ridge, the possibility of isolated/widely scattered showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out this afternoon through late evening. Temperatures will not be quite as hot today as the 850mb thermal ridge weakens slightly, but highs will still be well-above normal for this time in September, in the mid to upper 90s. Warm and humid conditions are expected tonight, with lows mostly in the lower 70s.
This boundary lifts north this morning as a warm front into southeast Nebraska and southern Iowa then gradually washes out by afternoon with the summer-like conditions spreading across eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa during the afternoon on gusty south winds. Latest model runs continue trend of slowing the approach of the cold front into the area for the weekend.
For today, northeastern Kansas remains under the influence of mid-level southwest flow as the main upper level, positively tilted trough, digs into the western US. The windy conditions continue into the evening, especially in central and north central Kansas keeping low temperatures nearly 20 degrees warmer than climatology, in the mid and lower 70s. This weekend a longwave trough will deepen over the western US.
As upper-level +PV anomalies superposition and strengthen the upper trough across the eastern CONUS today, a weak surface reflection will lie across south-central Georgia and the Florida Big Bend.