Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOW 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S. COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH NORTH MISSISSIPPI. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST U. DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF HAS WEAK UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE GFS STARTS BUILDING THE WESTERN RIDGE INTO THE AREA. WENT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS THAN THE MEX GUIDANCE THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS SHOULD TOUCH 90 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND.
142 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING.
THE FLOW WAS MODERATELY AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A TROF OVER THE ERN USA.
1259 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015 06Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A STORM SYSTEM NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. QUIET AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TODAY AND TONIGHT AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
Temps this afternoon were running similar or just a little higher than Sun and are expected to finish just slightly warmer than Sun over most of the area due to a shallower marine layer. SWly flow aloft will prevail over Norcal for the next several days with strong high pressure over the Desert SW/4-Corners area and low pressure centered off the B. This is expected to continue for a couple of days until the trof deepens later in the week as discussed below.
250 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015 Very quiet weather pattern in place across the Nation's midsection this afternoon as upper-level ridging continues to build across the Intermountain West and Northern Rockies. expect lows early Tuesday morning to range in the lower to middle 50s across much of the area.
346 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015 AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. A VERY WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS IN PLACE LOCALLY BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW FOR AUGUST CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. STEERING FLOW IS VERY WEAK /AOB 10 KTS/ AND RADAR TRENDS THUS FAR SHOW CONVECTION STAYING PINNED PRETTY CLOSE TO THE HIGHER PEAKS.
117 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015 UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCH CLOSER TONIGHT AND WINDS SHOULD EASE QUICKLY BY SUNSET. THE LONGER TERM TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COOLER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL PERIOD THROUGH ABOUT MIDWEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN HAS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH EXITING SLOWLY TO THE EAST EARLY WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WEST.
228 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SHARP DEWPOINT DROPS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH THE OHIO VALLEY ALREADY IN THE LOW 50S AT THIS POINT. AS 925-850MB MOISTURE REMAINS ON THE HIGH SIDE WITH WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ON THE COOLER SIDE AT NIGHT WITH PLEASANT AFTERNOON HIGHS. AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT DOMINATE. MODELS HAVE A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH A MUCH COOLER AND RAIN FREE FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW COULD IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THOUGH WILL LIGHTER THAN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
104 PM PDT MON AUG 24 2015 BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER MUCH OF THIS WEEK. MOISTURE FLOWING AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
Precip will remain absent across western Kansas through early Tuesday as short range models indicate a weak northwest flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains downstream of a building upper level ridge across the Intermountain West. Warmer low temperatures are likely tonight as prevailing southerlies in the lower levels draw slightly warmer air northward into western Kansas. Highs are expected mainly up into the lower to mid 90s(F) with a few upper 80s(F) still possible in central Kansas. Medium range models this morning are in pretty good agreement with previous runs in showing the upper level ridge continuing to build northward and eastward into the Plains states.
246 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 COOLER CONDITIONS AND SPARSE SHOWER CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT PASSAGE USHERED IN LOWER DEWPOINTS AND DIMINISHED CLOUDINESS TODAY. THE LOW TEMP FORECAST NEEDED LITTLE ALTERATION AS PER ALREADY CLOSE INCOMING GUIDANCE.
THE EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE RIDGE AXIS EXTNDD FM CNTRL SD INTO ERN NEB. ANOTHER QUIET AND SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BEFORE RETURN FLOW STARTS FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN LOOKS TO FLATTEN OVER THE WEST AND EXPAND EWD OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND.
336 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
357 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. DEEP CUT-OFF LOW OVER SRN ONTARIO WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD HAVE DRIFTED NORTH TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY LATE TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AND LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. PRECIP COVERAGE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH CHANCE POPS CONFINED MAINLY TO JUST DEEP EAST TEXAS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE AND UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION. A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S. CLIMBING TO THE LOWER 70S BY THE WEEKEND.
1232 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE REGION.
244 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE SHORT TERM WITH VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT OFF TO THE NE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE AMPLIFIED FLOW BREAKS DOWN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO USHER WARMER.
UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION TODAY. THERE IS ENOUGH MONSOON MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE FOR MOUNTAIN STORMS. WARM UPPER RIDGE WILL CAP MOST CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS OVER COLORADO. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CONFINED TO OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
427 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015 133 PM CDT AN EARLY TASTE OF AUTUMN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO SEND COOLER AIR AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 70S UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY COULD END UP A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAYS READINGS DUE TO SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. KJB 418 PM CDT THE UPPER LOW IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA.
212 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA OVERNIGHT THEN STALL NEAR THE COAST ON TUESDAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE REGION. SOME DIURNAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WITH A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 60 84 59 82 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 59 80 58 80 / 0 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 57 81 57 80 / 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 55 79 54 79 / 0 0 0 0.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
ANTICIPATE SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/T-STORMS ALONG THIS TROUGH. MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTING WARMER DAY TUESDAY.
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME STRONGER AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
With the high overhead, lights winds and a dry airmass in place will have superb radiational cooling conditions. Guidance temperatures consistent in the lower to middle 50s, and cannot rule out some upper 40s in the valley locations across the eastern Ozarks. Records lows for August 25th are generally in the lower 50s.
THE 500 MB RIDGING WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN STATES THROUGHOUT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A GENERAL BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE 500 MB PATTERN HANGING NEAR THE TX COASTLINE EXTENDING OUT OVER THE GULF OF MEX. WILL GO CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE WARMER ECMWF AND MAV TEMPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WHICH TEND TO LEAN CLOSER TO PERSISTENCE. THE NAM LOOKS A LITTLE TOO COOL ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES IN LIGHT OF THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS TONIGHT TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S, MAKING FOR QUITE A PLEASANT DAY.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AROUND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. RETURN FLOW WILL HELP BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION.
As a vortex in the Great Lakes area ejects into ern Canada, and a swrn CONUS mid level ridge begins to expand ewd this week, the PAH forecast area will remain under dry nwrly to nrly flow aloft, and high pressure at the sfc. The upper air pattern over our region will become a bit divergent by Wed night while the low level winds remain mostly out of the north to ne. Perhaps a few clouds Wed night may help to hold the lows up a few degrees higher than previous nights.
1213 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015 /18Z TAFS/ A weak cold front is stalled generally along a line from near Brady. /ISSUED 442 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/ (Today and Tonight) Weak cold front has stalled and extends roughly from just south of Mertzon to Eden to about midway between Brady and Brownwood. Temperatures today will be similar to yesterday along our southern tier of counties, and a few degrees cooler across our central and northern counties. Overnight lows are expected to be mostly in the lower 70s.
DEVELOPING STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS.
142 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK, AND PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE NORTHEAST. LATER IN THE WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAKE ITS MOVE EAST, CONTINUING THE CHANCES FOR RAIN. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS NOW MOVING THROUGH ST. MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED AROUND THIS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL VERY SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AROUND FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL HELP BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION.
NW flow aloft, with high pressure persistent at the surface through mid week, means dry weather with temperatures a bit below normal.
WHILE H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRETCH ACROSS TEXAS. SOME OF THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO FAR SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
LAST NIGHT'S /DRY/ FRONT HAS COMPLETELY TRAVERSED THE STATE LEAVING UNSEASONABLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE.
406 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK, AND PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE NORTHEAST. LATER IN THE WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAKE ITS MOVE EAST, CONTINUING THE CHANCES FOR RAIN. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WITH A NARROW LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS NOW MOVING THROUGH ST. THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THERE MAY BE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER LAKE ONTARIO AS COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE LAKE.
634 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 COOLER CONDITIONS AND SPARSE SHOWER CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE WEEKEND. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION A COLD FRONT PASSAGE USHERED IN LOWER DEWPOINTS AND DIMINISHED CLOUDINESS TODAY. THE LOW TEMP FORECAST NEEDED LITTLE ALTERATION AS PER ALREADY CLOSE INCOMING GUIDANCE.
233 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT HAS ALLOWED DEW POINTS TO RETURN TO NEAR 70F ACROSS OUR AREA ALONG WITH WARMER 850 MB AIR. COMBINED WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH.
359 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK, AND PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE NORTHEAST. LATER IN THE WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAKE ITS MOVE EAST, CONTINUING THE CHANCES FOR RAIN. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WITH A NARROW LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS NOW MOVING THROUGH ST. THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THERE MAY BE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER LAKE ONTARIO AS COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE LAKE.
140 PM PDT MON AUG 24 2015 A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BRING A WARMING TREND AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. INTERESTING MIX OF WEATHER TRENDS THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
247 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015 133 PM CDT AN EARLY TASTE OF AUTUMN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO SEND COOLER AIR AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 70S UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY COULD END UP A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAYS READINGS DUE TO SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER.
236 PM MDT MON AUG 24 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION TONIGHT WILL AMPLIFY AND SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL COLORADO TUESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A LIGHT SOUTH WIND. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 90S TUESDAY. ESPECIALLY CONCERNING THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
There's plenty of moisture around with surface Tds in the lower 60s, with localized higher amounts where it rained yesterday. Latest sfc analysis shows the old cold front down in the Big Bend Area/Lwr Trans Pecos, but a secondary surge of cold air is currently moving thru Southeast New Mexico, the Wrn Low Rolling Plains, and Permian Basin. Otherwise, WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over the Gulf Coast, but this is still forecast to build west as the Great Lakes trough amplifies during the week.
WE HAVE KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE EVENING ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS A TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE INTENSIFIES OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION. AND THE HIGHEST POPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF NORTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL REACH THE 90S TUESDAY ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE OFF TO OUR WEST. THE RIDGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK.
238 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN AREAS. A RELATIVELY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY DEVELOPING AT MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS JUST HOW DIFFUSE THE COLD FRONT IS. TO NR 80F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MID-LATE WEEK WX WILL BE DOMINATED BY LINGERING UPPER TROUGH OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
149 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015 133 PM CDT AN EARLY TASTE OF AUTUMN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO SEND COOLER AIR AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 70S UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY COULD END UP A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAYS READINGS DUE TO SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER.
250 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING.
133 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015 133 PM CDT AN EARLY TASTE OF AUTUMN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO SEND COOLER AIR AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 70S UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY COULD END UP A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAYS READINGS DUE TO SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER.
WV Imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate an upper level ridge of high pressure building northward across the Four Corners Region enhancing a northwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains. Near the surface, an area of high pressure is moving eastward across eastern Kansas while a lee side trough of low pressure is beginning to develop across eastern Colorado. A ridge/trough pattern was strengthening over North America as a strong upper low slowly moves through the northern Great Lakes region and an upper level ridge builds over the west. The upper ridge continues to build through tonight with upper level northwesterly flow continuing over the central Plains. This will slowly move east today as the upper level ridge builds. Weak return flow will develop today as the ridge moves east.
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AT MIDDAY TODAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN ON TUESDAY AS IT APPROACHES THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE CYCLONE.
1223 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1022 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/ COLD FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT CLEARED THE LOCAL AREA TO THE E THIS LATE MON MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS TAKES AIM ON THE SE STATES. THIS COOLER/DRIER AIR SHOULD BE WELL ON ITS WAY INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AS LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE ERN ZONES DIMINISHES WITH THE EXITING FRONT. 09 WITH A COLD FRONT NOW SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
213 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SURFACE PATTERN OVER EASTERN KANSAS TODAY. WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOW 80S.
146 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE THIS MORNING. AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SAILS SLOWLY ACROSS. COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE MOUNTAINS AT THIS HOUR. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. DEEP UPPER TROF SETTLES INTO E NORTH AMERICA ON TUE. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SENDING PERTURBATIONS THRU THE OH VALLEY TUE AND WED. WILL STAY CLOSE WITH COOLER NUMBERS FROM PREV FCST. MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW COULD IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.
215 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SHARP DEWPOINT DROPS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH THE OHIO VALLEY ALREADY IN THE LOW 50S AT THIS POINT. AS 925-850MB MOISTURE REMAINS ON THE HIGH SIDE WITH WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ON THE COOLER SIDE AT NIGHT WITH PLEASANT AFTERNOON HIGHS. AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT DOMINATE. DEEP UPPER TROF SETTLES INTO E NORTH AMERICA ON TUE. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SENDING PERTURBATIONS THRU THE OH VALLEY TUE AND WED. WILL STAY CLOSE WITH COOLER NUMBERS FROM PREV FCST. MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW COULD IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE EARLY ONSET CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARENT MID LEVEL NVA BEHIND TROUGH AXIS HAS PUT A DAMPER ON ANY REGENERATION OF DIURNAL SHRA/TS THUS FAR. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINNING TO BACK MORE SRLY AS THE DEEP LYR MEAN ATLC RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS BACK WWD INTO FL. OWING TO THE PROGGED STRONGER MID LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR EAST.
246 PM MDT MON AUG 24 2015 A LARGE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN IS PROGGED TO BUILD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE PAC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS WILL PUSH THE CENTROID OF THE HIGH. WARMING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL KEEP LIMITED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WARMING ALOFT AND MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRIN. HIGHS TOMORROW LOOK TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY.
HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE A DEGREE OR SO WARMER RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN COOLER COMPARED TO SEASONAL NORMALS. PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND ALABAMA STATE LINE MAY APPROACH RECORD LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. THE MEMPHIS METRO WILL LIKELY BE A DEGREE OR SO WARMER. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER.
507 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015 133 PM CDT AN EARLY TASTE OF AUTUMN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO SEND COOLER AIR AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 70S UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY COULD END UP A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAYS READINGS DUE TO SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. KJB 418 PM CDT THE UPPER LOW IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE B.
352 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
311 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015 SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY BEHIND YESTERDAY/S COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER TONIGHT DUE TO THE RETURN MOISTURE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. AND TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WITH THE WARMER TEMPS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. A RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST TOMORROW. AFTERNOON CONVECTION TOMORROW WILL BE TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE ARIZONA BORDER.
/ISSUED 1049 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/ QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS MIDDLE TN THIS MORNING FOLLOWING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER IN THE MORNING.
SHORT TERM: (THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON) OUR REGION IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
131 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ONCE THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST LATE IN THE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE.