Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
541 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 High pressure continues to dominate the weather map across much of the Plains and Midwest this afternoon. However, a weak warm front continues to move through the region this afternoon, and southerly winds usher in warmer temperatures. The warm temperatures are part of a longer warming trend, and tonights lows will remain above freezing for Central Illinois.
635 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 Skies will begin to clear Friday as low pressure moves northeastward.
This disturbance will be associated with a cold front at the surface which will advance east through the Dakotas/mid MO Valley Friday into Friday night.
Expect some virga to be indicated by radar during the evening as a mid level warm front moves through the region. Similar conditions will then continue through Friday as low pressure over the Plains sends the surface warm front into the Great Lakes. Upper heights will build steadily through Friday as mean upper trough over the northeast CONUS shifts east as deep low pressure system lifts into the Canadian maritime. The progression of the upper trough will allow upper ridging to translate eastward over the area during the next 24-36 hours. Southeast flow will then veer to south on Friday as a warm front lifts north into the area coincident with the building upper ridge.
605 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 High pressure centered along the Louisiana Gulf Coast is ridging across our region this hour, making for somewhat variable winds. This flow, combined with ridging building in aloft, will make for a nice mid February warmup. Cloud cover tonight, again in the Bluegrass, into the morning hours should help us start off warmer compared to this morning.
An upper level low over northern Mexico and West Texas will continue its eastward progression across the region overnight and Friday. Low to mid level moisture will increase across the marine zones into the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads, with the highest PWAT values of 1. As this upper low lifts northeast across the state scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms can be expected to develop. West southwest H85 flow across the western zones will allow for afternoon highs in the lower 80s Friday. Further east where more cloud cover and rain is expected though highs will stay in the low to mid 70s.
857 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 Intense low pressure in the Gulf of St Lawrence will slowly drift towards Newfoundland by Friday morning.
Winds will become southwest and gusty mid/late morning Friday as a lee trough develops. /issued 349 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017/ (Tonight and Friday) An upper level low that is currently located over northern Mexico will swing across West Central Texas overnight. Overnight low temperatures will be in the low to mid 40s. Above normal temperatures are forecast on Friday, with highs in the low to mid 70s, along with gusty winds of 10 to 20 mph.
Should not see a rapid increase in the low-level moisture through much of the day tomorrow as the low-level trajectory remains less than optimal through the afternoon.
The north-south oriented warm front located across western IL early this afternoon, will continue to push east this evening with a modest surface pressure gradient persisting tonight, and continued southwest winds/low level WAA. The upper low currently centered in west Texas will lift into the southern Plains on Friday and this will bring some high clouds to the area, however no more than we currently have in the northwest flow aloft.
Warm air advection will kick in more earnest tmrw, and with a warmer start in the upper end 30s, we should see the mercury rise well thru the 60s tmrw, providing an early spring like day.
454 PM MST Thu Feb 16 2017 00Z TAF CYCLE Mid level wind speeds will strengthen with gusty winds beginning over the higher elevations tonight, then spreading to the lowest elevations during the day on Friday. A gusty back door cold front will also drop southward through the eastern plains on Friday with a wind shift.
745 PM MST Thu Feb 16 2017 Winds still gusting in the lower 60 mph range at 730pm from Livingston to Nye.
307 PM MST Thu Feb 16 2017 Upper ridge across Colorado today, leading to extremely warm temperatures areawide, with readings near/just short of record maxes at Pueblo and Colorado Springs as of 2130z. On Friday, upper wave moving across the Nrn Plains will push a very weak cold front south through eastern Colorado early in the day, though impact looks to be limited to just some slight cooling of max temps, as mid level heights/temps only fall a minor amount. A few showers may reach the Continental Divide Fri afternoon as moisture increases ahead of West Coast upper low, though precip looks to be spotty and light during the daytime hours.
Moisture will continue to increase overnight and especially on Friday ahead of strong trof that approaches from the west over the weekend.
Proton Upper ridge now pushing to our east and Pacific moisture streams into the state this afternoon, mainly in the form of high clouds. Low pressure moves across Sask Friday that should allow for some mixing and more uniform temps.
Warmer over weekend with building heights. Expect the lower atmosphere to decouple providing light to calm winds tonight.
516 PM MST Thu Feb 16 2017 Afternoon water vapor loop depicted a high amplitude upper ridge over the northern Rockies and high plains. The high temperature thus far at Cheyenne has been 69, only two degrees shy of the month's all-time record high set in 1962. 12Z/18Z short range model guidance is in good agreement progging the upper ridge to shift east across the north/central Great Plains and Midwest through Friday. This trough will keep the pressure gradient fairly tight across portions of southeast WY tonight, especially between Cheyenne and Wheatland. Friday will be cooler as a weak Pacific cold front passes through. Models continue to bring advect some Pacific moisture into southern WY late Friday, with light orographic precipitation, mainly in the form of snow for the higher elevations of Carbon County.
Higher amounts have been received in the higher terrain with snow levels running around 7-8 thousand feet.
943 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 Low pressure departing eastward from the Canadian Maritimes will result in decreasing snow shower and flurry activity across northern New York and Vermont this afternoon and evening with partial clearing. Will see a narrow ridge of high pressure building across the region from west to east Friday into Friday night, with generally dry weather conditions.
Otherwise for today, forecast is on track for steamy highs ranging from the upper 80s to mid 90s, and heat index values in the lower 100s.
654 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 Cooler and less humid today, then returning humidity and only small rain chances over the weekend are the primary concerns of this forecast.
/issued 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016/ Central/Northern Plains upper trough influencing Kansas and northern Oklahoma convection will continue to move east and away from region today. Although large-scale forcing will be weaker with departure of upper trough, low amplitude s/wv trough progd to move over region from northern Mexico, combined with frontal boundary, will likely yield at least scattered storm development this afternoon and tonight, some of which will be severe.
Afternoon temperatures on the lower deserts will be a few degrees above normal, or in the 107 to 110 degree range.
1045 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 Few changes needed to the ongoing forecast as high pressure builds in aloft. The upper trough that moved through the Dakotas yesterday is exiting Minnesota and moving into the Upper Great Lakes.
An amplified upper level trough across the upper midwest early this morning will move east across the eastern Great Lakes Tonight. The upper flow across eastern KS will weaken and shift to the northwest through Tonight as an upper level ridge amplifies across the high plains. At the surface a weak cold front front extended from northwest MO, southwest through Topeka, then west southwest across western KS.
This to occur despite the continued presence of an upper level ridge over the forecast area.
Gilchrist Previous discussion:Upper ridge moving across Montana today with hot and dry weather expected. As ridge shifts east, southwest flow increases into the state as a Pacific upper low spins toward the Pacific Northwest.
Temps are quite warm as the 850 mb thermal ridge is lying across the region. and thus will not need any heat headlines for the lower Susq for today. Surface cold front will shift eastward across the central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic piedmont tonight into early Saturday morning. The surface pattern becomes somewhat complex on Saturday with a merger of the synoptic cold front with a prefrontal/lee- side trough. Max temps on Saturday will make another run at 90F in the lower Susquehanna Valley but HX values do not look to be an issue.
A cold front will move through central Indiana today bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Afterward high pressure will build in and should provide a dry weekend. Afterward, convection may develop this afternoon as a cold front moves through the area.
Upper air analysis last evening showed the subtropical ridge firmly in place over the southern part of the country. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the central Gulf and winds were from the southeast. The upper level ridge will remain in place for the short term.
The upper trough that moved through the Dakotas yesterday is exiting Minnesota and moving into the Upper Great Lakes.
Added so mid to high clouds far west where clouds are moving in ahead of the western h500 trough.
/ISSUED 756 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016/ VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED BUT THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO HINT AT SOME CONVECTION BEING POSSIBLE INLAND CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. 02/RAG STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS, A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
fcst models continue to show nocturnal shwr/storm activity across the Central Plains as the low-level jet strengthens with time. heights should build across the area as ridging develops across the Central and Northern Plains. the GFS and to a lesser extent the NAM and ECMWF show an undulation rotating south along the eastern periphery of the developing ridge.
Some sctd SHRA/TSRA has formed in the last hour over parts of W-CNTRL AR in the vcnty of the an assocd outflow bndry and along the SERN periphery of the higher lvl cloud shield. Today Through Saturday Night Once again, surface analysis indicates ridge of high pressure located southeast of the state with low pressure situated over the TX/OK panhandles. Better rain chances will be in the forecast during the short term period as the upper ridge across the southern US begins to retreat westward a bit providing more of a NW flow aloft over the state.
A deep upper level low just west of Vancouver island will move slowly southeast over northwest Oregon Saturday night, bringing showery weather to Western Washington.
The central Florida peninsula is between two upper lows this morning one well west across the central Gulf of Mexico and another about 350 miles east of Grand Bahama Island. a weak H5 ridge center was off the SW FL coast with a 500 mb trough dropping se off the SE Atlc coast through the day and bringing increasing mid layer northerly flow behind this feature toward evening.
A cold front will move through central Indiana today bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Afterward high pressure will build in and should provide a dry weekend. Surface analysis late this morning shows a weak trough of low pressure over Illinois pushing toward Indiana. Low pressure was found across the Great lakes. in the lower 70s. Models suggest the weak cool front/trough over Illinois will push across Central Indiana this afternoon.
We'll then trend toward a mix of sun and clouds for the remainder of the day, with ridging helping to send high temperatures into the mid/upper 90Fs.
A cold front was draped across the northern TX Panhandle.
923 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016 High pressure centered to our northeast will be over the area today.
High pressure will continue to ridge across the area from the Atlantic through the period. Aloft, ridging will weaken across the state as a trough digs down the eastern US coast/western Atlantic and slowly shift east through the period. Temperatures will be in the lower to mid 90s each afternoon and lows in the lower to mid 70s inland and mid 70s to lower 80s near the coast.
A weak mid/upper level short wave trough axis was across SE Ga under WNW steering flow while the 1000-500 mb ridge axis was center across the southern Florida peninsula this morning.
645 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 The upper low will continue to propagate east today. with ridging building in its wake.
1222 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016 High pressure centered to our northeast will be over the area today.
Near the surface, a near stationary frontal boundary extends from the Texas Panhandle northeast into eastern Kansas while an area of high pressure is settled across much of Nebraska. There is a small chance of thunderstorms into Saturday despite the weak upper level ridging as the frontal boundary lingers.
Approach of the tail end of a cold frontal system moving into the Pacific Northwest may lead to some enhancement of the coastal drizzle overnight into Saturday morning.
1032 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016 As a cold front pushes towards the region today, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop. Slight tweak cooler brings max apparent temperature into the lower and middle 90s. Went the highest pops, 40 to 50, across nrn KY into srn OH with the second feature. With dewpoints in the lower 70s and highs into the 80, CAPES of several thousand J/kg will be possible. A drier air mass will filter in behind the cold front for Saturday. High pressure building in from the north will provide mostly clear skies Saturday night. In the clear skies, lows should drop to the lower 60s.
756 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016 VFR is generally expected but the high resolution guidance is starting to hint at some convection being possible inland convection this afternoon.
636 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 The model consensus shows showers and thunderstorms forming on a warm front across NW Neb this morning. 33 inches and K-indices in the lower 40s as lapse rates steepen. The humidity is being transported northward into the region ahead of a large upper level trough of low pressure that will be developing into the Pacific northwest.
08Z analysis shows an upper level low spinning over northern MN with its attendant surface cold front draped across north- central WI into northeast IA. Temperatures will also be cooler today with highs mainly in the 70s to around 80 degrees. There is a chance for scattered thunderstorms mainly this afternoon along and northeast of I-94 as the upper low passes across northern WI. A 500 hPa ridge builds across the Upper Midwest for the weekend.
Initial cold front on our nw CWA border will weaken as it shifts across eastern Oregon today.
Warmer temps in the mid 90s are expected south of the decaying MCS over Southeast OKlahoma.
The coolest temperatures can be found near the Tennessee River where Paris and Savannah are in the lower 70s. Over the next 24 hours or so we will transition into a slightly cooler and wetter pattern. Afternoon highs today are expected to be in the low to middle 90s. The cold front probably won't make it much farther South than the Missouri Bootheel this afternoon before stalling. with a deeper positively tilted trough.
These factors, along with lack of forcing between the exiting wave and the main trough tonight, should aid in keeping afternoon convection at bay. Later tonight the focus shifts to the approaching cold front. tax With the upper trough along the Pennsylvania/Ohio border Saturday morning, upper levels will still support additional clouds and diurnal showers behind the cold front.
Upper level ridging is expected to progress across the high plains region by Saturday.
An upper low is currently near the south end of the Queen Charlotte Islands. This low will slowly drift south-southeast to a position over the Pacific Northwest by late in the Saturday night period. A cool front ahead of this low will linger across the interior northwest today and tonight.
Aloft, weak ridging into the weekend. The ridging should also help make temperatures a few degrees hotter into the weekend. The high resolution mesoscale models are coming into better agreement, but still differ significantly with respect to timing leading to some uncertainty in the forecast.
Otherwise, weak ridging will prevail aloft into the weekend. The ridging should also help make temperatures a few degrees hotter into the weekend. The high resolution mesoscale models are coming into better agreement, but still differ significantly with respect to timing leading to some uncertainty in the forecast. Have kept the highest PoPs across the northern Midlands (30-40%), with slightly lower chances farther south (20-30%).
In addition, a sfc trof of low pressure along with a residual outflow boundary from earlier tstm activity masked in a weak cold front will be present over the fcst area today. Max temps today will be cooler compared to the past few days.
These features will move east to southeast through the day with a cooler northerly flow developing. Highs will range from the mid sixties in the Arrowhead to the lower seventies from the Brainerd Lakes east to Phillips and Park Falls. As the low pressure system continues to pull off tonight, showers/storms will end. High pressure will nose into the region overnight and provide dry conditions on Saturday under partly to mostly sunny skies.
Today Through Saturday Night Once again, surface analysis indicates ridge of high pressure located southeast of the state with low pressure situated over the TX/OK panhandles. Better rain chances will be in the forecast during the short term period as the upper ridge across the southern US begins to retreat westward a bit providing more of a NW flow aloft over the state.
The temperature at Chattanooga at 10 am this morning was already at 88 degrees with dewpoints in the low 70s. Chattanooga Airport, TN 96 75 93 72 / 30 30 40 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 72 91 70 / 60 50 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 89 72 91 69 / 60 40 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 69 88 63 / 60 60 10 10.
1109 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 Not much change to the forecast late this morning as the persistent high pressure aloft keeps the same airmass in place with little in the way of modification. The mid to upper level ridge axis will persist just north of the area through the period.
525 AM MDT FRI JUL 8 2016 Current surface map shows high pressure across the western Dakotas. Upper level ridge builds across the area for Saturday, with highs 5-10F warmer. Surface trof/dryline lifts through northeast Wyoming into southwest South Dakota.
630 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016 Will be a rather pleasant summer day as a strong upper trough of low pressure exits further eastward across the Great Lakes region today. Upper ridging is noted across the western plains, with our area experiencing a dry northwest surface flow for most locations. Highs still look on track to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s with warmer bias corrected readings used. Low temperatures will be warmer Saturday night, in the mid 60s east to around 70 west.
/Today/ With the upper low departing to the Great Lakes region and a ridge building over the Rockies Iowa will be in a Northwest flow aloft today. Similarly at the surface, high pressure will be moving East over the area.
An unseasonably cool upper-level trough will bring significantly cooler temperatures and a chance of rain through the weekend.
Some of the low cloudiness may briefly sneak into the southern terminals right around sunrise, but VFR conditions should prevail at all terminals for the majority of the forecast period. /issued 332 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016/ (Today and Tonight) Upper level high pressure will remain in control for most of West Central Texas for the next 24 hours.
06Z surface data has a cold front running from western Wisconsin into southern Kansas. Tonight, quiet and dry conditions will be seen across the area as high pressure builds into the Midwest. Mostly Sunny and warm with moderate humidity as weak high pressure moves in with northerly winds. Lows in the upper 50s northeast to the lower 60s the rest of the region.
A cold front currently over eastern Iowa will push southeast across the forecast area today. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will pass south of CWA to along and south of I-64 this evening, as the cold front exits southeast of our CWA and tracks toward the Ohio river. Cooler and less humid air to then filter into central and southeast IL tonight and Saturday, setting us up for a nice summer weekend. Lows overnight will be in the low to mid 60s with the milder readings over southern CWA.
Heading into Saturday models show surface front trying to lift back north as a warm front, but this will depend on characteristics of convection tonight/Saturday morning.
An unseasonably cold upper level trough will settle into the Pacific Northwest on Saturday. Southwest flow aloft will increase ahead of this trough today and Saturday.
Cloud cover is also spotty, but with the upper low still over northeast MN, still expect more cloud development by late morning into the afternoon. The upper low will continue to propagate east today. with ridging building in its wake.
Guidance for this evening is higher than what ended up in the grids given low confidence, and have opted to continue with slight chance to chance pops, with the highest across far north/northeast Georgia late.
The mid to upper level ridge axis will persist just north of the area through the period.
Temps will warm into the lower/mid 90s and combine with high levels of surface moisture to support heat indices in the 105-108 range.
Upper ridge axis builds overhead tonight into Thursday and brings a bit of low and mid-level warm air advection. The former along with little in the way of forcing or convergence should help keep anything more than isolated thunder in check, but the latter will likely bring slightly warmer temps.
An upper low remains over the area through the rest of the week, keeping a chance of showers, isolated thunderstorms, and below normal temperatures over the area. Over the coming weekend, the low will gradually weaken as it moves over the Pac NW and into the Rockies.
An upper level trough will bring cooler temperatures and increased cloud cover to Northwest California this week. Still expecting a general cooling trend over the next few days as colder air moves in overhead associated with an abnormally cool upper trough.
Went ahead and expanded the heat advisory for Thursday for same locations due to the ridge expanding further north and even warmer 850mb temps.
I think this low deck will mix out later this morning once we get the heating going.
An area of low pressure across the Pacific Northwest will keep temperatures across the region near to below normal through Thursday.
Convection may linger tonight as upper troughing to the north amplifies into the se.
640 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 Showers and thunderstorms in north central ND rapidly dissipated in the last 90 minutes as they propagated into a more stable air mass and increasing subsidence aloft in the wake of the stacked low pressure system centered in west central MN at 11 UTC. Mostly sunny today, then the next wave moves into eastern Montana with convection firing along a lee trough and advancing northeast.
One last lobe of forcing continues rotating around the southern portion of the North Dakota/Minnesota upper low with isolated convection from Missouri to just north of the border.