Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1147 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2020 The synoptic pattern remained relatively low amplitude with Hurricane Delta and a closed low off the the coast of CA the exceptions per the 20Z water vapor imagery. At the surface, a low pressure system was moving east across Ontario with a trailing frontal boundary extending through the Dakotas. A prefrontal trough of low pressure was seen from the central High plains through central MN. The morning stratus limited insolation across east central KS where temps have only managed warming into the lower 80s. South of the front where stratus is expected, lows are forecast to be in the lower to middle 60s once again. Highs are expected to be a bit cooler with less mixing.
258 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Cold front making its way southeast through the area early this morning. High pressure builds in today behind this departing front, providing quiet and dry conditions.
As a result temperatures have dropped quick as expected and a few locations are near freezing in our CWA near the International Border. Temperatures haven't dropped too much yet, but with clearing skies and decreasing winds expectation is still there for near or below freezing temps, with Td values already in the 30s for many locations. As skies clear and high pressure moves in expect many locations to be near or below freezing in our north or traditionally colder spots in MN. Clear skies along with ridge axis traversing the area overnight will allow temps to all in the 30s for tomorrow mornings low. By afternoon temps will climb into the upper 50s to low 60s with SE winds developing on the back side of the ridge axis.
Cooler but still above normal temperatures are expected, with highs in the upper 60s in southwest MN, to upper 70s toward the Missouri River Valley. Steady to increasing winds gradually turning more southerly, in advance of strengthening upper trough crossing the northern Rockies.
High pressure over the region will maintain VFR conditions and generally light winds through the forecast period. High pressure building in over Deep South Texas will maintain VFR conditions through the forecast period, with light and variable winds expected overnight tonight.
341 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 After record-breaking heat yesterday, today will feature slightly cooler temperatures thanks to the passage of a weak cold front. Highs are still expected to reach the low 80s across most of the area, so it will still be plenty warm for October. Winds will remain fairly light, turning to the east and southeast this afternoon as high pressure slides across the northern Plains.
Dry and cooler today and tonight. Upstream cold front has reached Western Upper Michigan and Northern Wisconsin early this morning. Cold front will sweep thru our CWA today. with high pressure building into the Northern Great Lakes this evening and then sliding east of our state overnight. with only some increase in mainly low clouds and cooler temps as compared to yesterday.
CAPE remains very low-end but LL shear does ramp up for a period this afternoon and evening as the low/warm front approaches.
331 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 With Delta moving inland the upper ridge will build east farther into TX. At the same time a cut off low will move down the Srn CA Coast into Baja with an upper trough pushing in from the NW.
A cold front has pushed in across western Oregon early this morning associated with a strong short wave at 500 millibars digging through the northeast Pacific.
310 AM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Weak upper ridging is setting up this morning across the northern to central Rockies and will push eastward into the northern Plains toward midday.
Highs today will again climb into the low to mid 80s across the area. The cold front associated with the strong upper trough will push through the area Sunday evening and overnight.
Additionally, the combination of onshore breaking swells and winds starting to veer onshore by Sunday will continue the high risk of rip currents through at least Sunday evening.
621 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Cold front making its way southeast through the area early this morning. High pressure builds in today behind this departing front, providing quiet and dry conditions. Meanwhile the pressure gradient will tighten ahead of a strong approaching cold front. Resultant breezy southeasterly winds and WAA will nudge temperatures into the lower 70s mainly near and west of the Mississippi River.
405 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Much of the Northland was located between a pair of cold fronts early this morning.
513 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Surface observations showed Tropical Storm Delta centered near Vicksburg, MS at 5 AM, with 40 to 50 mph winds extending as far out as 50 miles from the low pressure center. Beyond this period, the low level instability axis and forced convective banding will have shifted into AL.
648 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Another warm day for much of Ohio and Indiana today, but slightly cooler north.
/issued 513 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020/ Surface observations showed Tropical Storm Delta centered near Vicksburg, MS at 5 AM, with 40 to 50 mph winds extending as far out as 50 miles from the low pressure center. Beyond this period, the low level instability axis and forced convective banding will have shifted into AL.
MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with hot high pressure over the desert southwest. A ridge spur rides north out of this through Wyoming and eastern Montana. A large trough has burrowed its way inland over the Pacific Northwest and is making its way into easter Montana rapidly. Today: Warm front moving through the area this morning will raise temperatures for the day into an unseasonably warm mid 80s which will lead to very low RH in the lower teens across the west. While wind itself won't be a problem initially, a cold front arrives mid-evening and could spread any fires that were active during the afternoon. Saturday night through Sunday: Cold front will move through the area bringing increased wind and perhaps a few isolated to scattered showers.
Transient high pressure across the east this morning will give way to an approaching front. Cooler air will move in behind the fropa as the upper trough digs into the plains.
650 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Much of the Northland was located between a pair of cold fronts early this morning.
ALI and VCT could see patchy fog this morning due to the low level moisture and drier air aloft.
Most of the area should warm back into the low to mid 80s today, but the added cloud cover and possible scattered rain will keep temperures in the far southeast in the upper 70s. Delta remnants will continue shifting northeast tonight, with a ridge axis aloft shifting east into the area. Highs in the low to mid 80s across the area are expected and would not be surprised to see some upper 80s in parts of the western CWA.
Will continue the wind advisory for today, though if pressure falls continue to be this high, winds could be stronger than forecast, and we could end up needing a high wind warning in parts of southeast Arkansas for a few hours. High pressure will quickly follow, with southerly winds setting back up on Sunday, and temperatures warming well into the 80s ahead of an approaching frontal boundary.
A potent trough will come ashore along the Pacific Northwest coast today. A cold front will arrive in the eastern Uintas after sunrise Sunday with showers and some high elevation light snow arriving shortly afterward.
Temperatures today will be held slightly cooler than normal but morning lows Sunday will continue warmer than normal.
/issued 331 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020/ With Delta moving inland the upper ridge will build east farther into TX. At the same time a cut off low will move down the Srn CA Coast into Baja with an upper trough pushing in from the NW.
A deepening lee side trough along the Front Range will increase winds aft 19Z with gusts around 25 kt east of the central mt chain.
450 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Much of the Northland was located between a pair of cold fronts early this morning.
735 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020 [Through 12Z Sunday] A warm front was lifting northward through southeast Georgia this morning, bringing a line of showers through KSSI. The region will be between high pressure to the northeast and the remnants of Delta to the northwest Today. A warm front will lift north of the region this morning, which will help to focus higher precipitation chances across SE GA this morning. The remnants of Delta will move to the north of the region Sunday, as high pressure retreats further toward the northeast.
939 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Much of the Northland was located between a pair of cold fronts early this morning.
The subsidence inversion seen in yesterday mornings sounding has disappeared, as the Keys area is now in a southerly flow channel between high pressure off the Atlantic coast and the broader flow into a rapidly weakening Tropical Storm Delta.
One of the main impacts today will be increasing southwesterly winds ahead of the main cold front. Southwest Montana and portions of west-central Montana will see the higher winds, where widespread sustained southwesterly winds of 20 to 30 mph, with gusts in the low 40s, are expected. A few inches of snow will be possible for the higher passes, such as Lolo, Lost Trail, Bannock and Lemhi Passes. Skalkaho Summit and other higher backcountry roads will see the higher amounts with several inches forecasted through Sunday morning.
High pressure returns on Sunday, bringing a stretch of warmer and drier weather to the region.
After record-breaking heat yesterday, today will feature slightly cooler temperatures thanks to the passage of a weak cold front. Highs are still expected to reach the low 80s across most of the area, so it will still be plenty warm for October. Winds will remain fairly light, turning to the east and southeast this afternoon as high pressure slides across the northern Plains. Sunday will be warmer once again as we see strong warm air advection ahead of an upper level trough and associated cold front.
High temperatures will range from the low to mid 90s in the east to above the century mark out west under sunny skies each afternoon. Latest buoy observations indicate some lingering long period swells impacting the lower Texas coast early this morning. Also, have decided to extend the current Coastal Flood Advisory and the High Surf Advisory until 12 PM, as conditions greatly improve.
Dry and cooler today and tonight. Upstream cold front has reached Western Upper Michigan and Northern Wisconsin early this morning. Cold front will sweep thru our CWA today. with high pressure building into the Northern Great Lakes this evening and then sliding east of our state overnight. with only some increase in mainly low clouds and cooler temps as compared to yesterday. High pressure to our north tracks eastward across eastern Ontario into western Quebec Sunday.
451 AM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Weak upper ridging is setting up this morning across the northern to central Rockies and will push eastward into the northern Plains toward midday.
535 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Warm weather will continue across central Illinois today as afternoon highs once again top out in the lower to middle 80s. Elsewhere, partly to mostly sunny conditions with highs in the lower to middle 80s will be common. Given high clouds and easterly winds, high temperatures will be a couple of degrees cooler than today.
Behind Delta, upper-level ridging will quickly build in following the storm.
Showers and storms will eventually push back eastward towards the coast late this afternoon into this evening, as steering flow veers SSW/SW between Tropical Storm Delta and high pressure off of the Atlantic coast.
Meanwhile a cold front will surge southward across the region Sunday night. Wind speeds could flirt with advisory levels on initial surge in wake of cold front passage.
510 AM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Weak upper ridging is setting up this morning across the northern to central Rockies and will push eastward into the northern Plains toward midday.
Hot, summer like weather will continue across the area again on Sunday, due to a strong low level thermal ridge in place and downsloping southwesterly surface winds.
1221 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Much of the Northland was located between a pair of cold fronts early this morning.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): 500mb ridge across the southern plains tonight will move eastward Sunday into Sun night. high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico will provide an onshore flow across the CWA tonight through Sunday night.
Sunny skies along with waa with high temperatures ranging from the upper 60s northeast sd/west central mn to the lower 80s southwest of Pierre. Transient high pressure across the east this morning will give way to an approaching front. Cooler air will move in behind the fropa as the upper trough digs into the plains.
Latest guidance is a touch faster with the cold front Sunday night, with the latest NAM bringing the boundary into northwest AR and southeast OK toward 12Z.
Tonight, lows will fall into the lower 40s near Lake of the Woods, with middle 50s in southeast North Dakota. For Sunday, look for increasing cloud cover ahead of a cold front that will traverse the region during the afternoon hours. After that good cold air advection sets in for the end of the week (850 temps -4 to -8C) limiting high temps to the 40s by then, with lows near or below freezing.
Upper level ridging west of Delta keeps our weather calm and dry for Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures through the weekend remain in the low to mid- 80s.
Perceptibly cooler across the area today behind the cold front that has now sagged to near KC MO according to 19Z surface analysis. Negatively tilted trof tapping into a high shear / low CAPE environment should quickly lend itself to a coalescing line of thunderstorms.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed a weak area of high pressure over west-central Ontario with a ridge axis that extended southwest into the central Plains. The high pressure is forecast to move into extreme southwest Quebec tonight and veer the winds from northeast to east- southeast. Look for min temperatures to range from the lower to middle 30s north-central WI, to the lower to middle 40s east- central WI. As the high pressure slowly pulls farther away from the Great Lakes on Sunday, winds will become east-southeast.
We have seen a gradual decrease in the dew point temperatures over the last hour or so and with this trend expected to continue, we should manage to warm into the lower 90s to near 100 degrees for the afternoon high temperatures. A strong low-level thermal ridge to our west along with south to southwest winds and plenty of insolation will result in high temperatures in the mid 90s to near 103 degrees.
Mid-level ridging will maintain VFR conditions through the period; however, conditions may become favorable for MVFR-IFR BR toward ALI between 11Z-14Z SUN.
The region will be between high pressure to the northeast and the remnants of Delta to the northwest Today. A warm front will lift north of the region this morning, which will help to focus higher precipitation chances across SE GA this morning. The remnants of Delta will move to the north of the region Sunday, as high pressure retreats further toward the northeast.
1121 AM PDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Expect widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures this weekend as weather systems move through the region. Today will be wet, windy, cooler followed be a small threat of afternoon thunderstorms. The cold front is currently pushing through the region bringing widespread rain showers and expected to tapering off from West to East through the afternoon. /JDC 18Z TAFs: A strong cold front will move across the region this morning.
Temperatures overall have likely reached near the highs for the day with no real help from downslope. The light easterly surface winds will turn south overnight as the upper jet from the northwest pacific region is fast approaching the central Rockies and inducing weak lee troughing. Due to weak BL mixing and moisture advection, we will see significantly warmer over night lows tonight, in 50s and upper 50s in many areas of the lower Plains. A welcome break in the hot temperatures are expected as a cold front will move though the area Sunday night.
After a brief period of near normal temperatures, high pressure will push temperatures back to well above average by the middle of the week. A weak southerly fetch on the east side of the low will try to draw a little moisture into southern Sonora with a few showers possible, but chances are slim to none this far north. A ridge axis will once again build in from a strong eastern Pacific high through the desert southwest by mid week.
247 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Impressive view on water vapor imagery this afternoon with decaying tropical system in the Southeast and a strong trough moving across the Northwest. A tap of elevated moisture in the southerly flow ahead of the trough is also evident and is somewhat limiting the critical fire weather conditions. Upstream radar mosaic is rather impressive ahead of the trough. It still appears the snow level will drop below 8000 feet as the front passes and cooler air filters over northern Utah and Colorado tomorrow.
A cold front will then approach NW OK after sunset Sunday.
329 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Large upper level low pressure trough moving into western Canada and the Pacific Northwest late this afternoon will be moving east through the night and across our region Sunday and Sunday night. The main energy in this trough will dig across our region bringing some good upper level lift Sunday into Sunday evening along with a strong surface cold front pushing through. As the upper level trough approaches, pressure falls and a good surface pressure gradient should keep winds up through the night despite a strengthening inversion. With the cold front surging in and increasing instability, expect more numerous showers and storms to develop mainly across the eastern cwa.
The region will be in between TD Delta over lower Mississippi river valley and high pressure to the northeast in the Atlantic. Temperatures continue to be above climo with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s and highs tomorrow in the mid to upper 80s.
1222 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Cold front making its way southeast through the area early this morning. High pressure builds in today behind this departing front, providing quiet and dry conditions. Meanwhile the pressure gradient will tighten ahead of a strong approaching cold front. Resultant breezy southeasterly winds and WAA will nudge temperatures into the lower 70s mainly near and west of the Mississippi River.
The strong Pacific system is spreading clouds east into central Montana this afternoon ahead of a cold front. Look for this cold front to move into the western zones by evening with winds signaling it's arrival with a shift to the west and a temporary increase. The upper trough moving into the Pacific Northwest then approaches the area and brings a windy day for Sunday. lee of Little Rocky Mountains), with the higher winds staying closer to the Rocky Mountain Front.
Conditions will be warmer and more muggy Sunday, as high range from the upper 70s to middle 80s. A shallow and dry cold front is also progged to be dropping through the Southern Plains and towards the Deep South.
242 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Cooler temperatures and partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected into tonight and Sunday behind a cold front.
Looks like another relatively mild overnight as southwest flow aloft strengthens and a cold front approaches our western counties late, helping to keep the low level mixing up. Downslope winds in the low levels will limit shower coverage east of I-25. Dry and cold as the low and mid levels dry out and colder air infiltrates the region in the wake of the cold front.
Most of the area should warm back into the low to mid 80s today, but the added cloud cover and possible scattered rain will keep temperatures in the far southeast in the upper 70s. Delta remnants will continue shifting northeast tonight, with a ridge axis aloft shifting east into the area. Highs in the low to mid 80s across the area are expected and would not be surprised to see some upper 80s in parts of the western CWA.
Cannot completely rule out some isolated drizzle here and there with the low clouds, as the NAM points to some subtle rising motion within the low-level saturation area on forecast soundings. However, other models say no drizzle likely due to the remnants of large-scale subsidence still being situated overhead as upper ridging slowly exits east. Winds turn southerly on Sunday while gradually increasing in speed as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the next wave/cold front.
Another warm day is in the forecast for tomorrow afternoon with highs climbing into the lower to middle 80s. As we get into Sunday evening, changes will begin to unfold across the central CONUS as a trough digs into the Plains.
1136 AM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Weak upper ridging is setting up this morning across the northern to central Rockies and will push eastward into the northern Plains toward midday.
355 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Focus has been on an approaching cold front expected to cross the local area late Sunday afternoon and evening. very dry air and cooler air will filter across the local area to start the new week.
The highest QPF amounts will likely remain over west Kentucky this afternoon and tonight, moving from the Purchase area to the Pennyrile region, respectively. The highest values will be over the southern Pennyrile , where storm total precipitation near 1. Once the remnants of Delta move out of the area Sunday afternoon, sharp ridging will build into the area, increasing thicknesses enough for elevated minimum temperatures and highs in the 80s.
A cold front continues to push through the Northern Rockies today. Temperatures will be significantly cooler on Sunday compared to the past several days.
Forecaster confidence was low in min RH getting any lower than 16% and expect most of the area to be closer to 20 to 25%, with only a window of an hour or 2 at the lower RH's before the cold front pushes through minimizing the fire weather threat. As for highs on Sunday, temperatures should reach the 80s across north central and southwest Nebraska, where cooler temperatures will be in the 70s across the northern Sandhills as the cold front will push through sooner in the day. The one caveat to temperatures not reaching the 80s, would be the cold front moving quicker into the forecast area.
Rain has spread over eastern Oregon as a Pacific cold front crosses the region. Snow levels will fall to near 5000 ft MSL by the early morning behind the cold front as temperatures drop below normal. The cold front will also provide enough forcing to clear out the wildfire smoke by later today. A broad area of precipitation and a cold front will impact the region today into the overnight hours. Lingering showers through Sunday, mostly for the higher elevations of central Idaho.
A mid level ridge is situated through the Plains states while an incoming Pacific trough is digging into the Pacific northwest. Afternoon temperatures have hit the low 80s.
The surface warm front appears to have moved into north GA except for the far northern counties where easterly winds and some patchy fog persist.
Mid-level ridging moving east over the region will maintain hot and dry conditions through the weekend. As for rip currents, the High Risk for Rip Currents has been extended through tonight into early Sunday morning.
These are associated with a plume of weak surface-based instability and outer bands of ex tropical cyclone Delta.
Lows tonight should manage to dip into the lower 70's and upper 60's, rebounding Sunday afternoon into the lower to middle 80's. Even cooler temperatures are expected Sunday night with lows into the lower to middle 60's inland, and upper 60's to near 70 along our coastal counties.