Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Onshore flow and a sharpening upper ridge will drive most of the precipitation away on Wednesday.
505 PM MDT Tue Mar 27 2018 Warmer temperatures are expected across the area ahead of a cold front and scattered light rain showers moving into the region Wednesday afternoon. The upper trough extending across the region today sweeps east of the region overnight with stronger northwest flow aloft moving across the Rockies and central high plains on Wednesday. Highs in advance of the cold front should be in mid 50s to lower 60s. The cold front will begin moving into the northern sections of the forecast area around mid day and should be through the majority of the forecast area by 00Z Wednesday evening. Northwest winds are also expected to increase through the afternoon following the passage of the cold front.
/Issued 333 PM CDT Tue Mar 27 2018/ The current round of rainfall, forced by lift on the cool side of a frontal boundary and in advance of a positive tilt trough to our west, should conclude by late tonight.
It should be noted that confidence is on the low side when it comes to fog potential tonight. High pressure will move into the region this evening with gradual clearing of the skies and winds becoming light. High pressure will be pretty much centered over WI by early Wednesday morning. High pressure continues to hold across the region on Wednesday with mostly sunny skies and warm temps pushing into the mid 50s for most.
1038 PM MDT Tue Mar 27 2018 A broad upper trough covers much of the CONUS, with northwest flow over the northern plains. An upper wave and its associated cold front will cross the region tonight.
754 PM EDT Tue Mar 27 2018 High pressure ridging over the area will continue tonight with northeasterly surface flow gradually becoming southeasterly.
453 PM PDT Tue Mar 27 2018 Winds are gusty and showers remain near the Cascade Crest and the North Idaho mountains this afternoon due to a cold front passage today.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 52 72 60 69 / 10 30 50 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 70 59 70 / 10 30 30 60 Oak Ridge, TN 52 69 59 69 / 10 40 40 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 68 55 73 / 10 30 30 50.
850 PM EDT Tue Mar 27 2018 A weak frontal system that will move across late tonight into Wednesday morning, then wash out nearby, followed by weak high pressure later Wednesday.
635 PM CDT Tue Mar 27 2018 Deep upper low is currently situated across the Desert Southwest with southwest flow aloft remaining over the southern Plains. At the surface, cold front stretches from southeast MO into west TX. Main story for Wed into Thu will be for the main upper trough to finally swing across the Plains as some northern stream energy phases with the main impulse currently over the southwest CONUS. Upper trough will finally swing east of the Plains Thu into Thu night, taking the better rainfall chances with it. GFS and ECMWF have come into much better agreement with the timing of a strong cold front Sat-Sun.
A low pressure system is exiting the region tonight. High pressure will build in from the west resulting in a strong warming trend.
554 PM MDT Tue Mar 27 2018 00Z TAF CYCLE Closed upper low centered over far se AZ/sw NM will weaken and drift newd overnight. Quieter and warmer weather will be on tap for the rest of the week.
As an upper low approaches from our southwest, sufficient forcing in a marginally unstable environment will keep rain with isolated thunderstorms in the forecast through tonight. As far as surface winds, weak high pressure across the central plains will maintain a light northerly wind through the forecast period.
A low pressure system pushing into New Mexico will allow for a lingering chance for rain and snow showers, diminishing overnight. Lingering showers across S Apache, S Navajo, and N Gila counties will persist into the evening as low pressure pushes eastward into New Mexico.
1106 PM EDT Tue Mar 27 2018 A weak frontal system will move across into Wednesday morning, then wash out, followed by weak high pressure later Wednesday.
1155 PM CDT Tue Mar 27 2018 00z/7pm surface analysis shows cold front settling slowly southward toward the Ohio River. Elsewhere around central Illinois, cloudy and cool conditions will prevail with overnight lows ranging from the lower 30s northwest of the Illinois River. to the lower to middle 40s along/south of I-70. Moisture channel satellite still shows upper low spinning in southern AZ. Cold front by 20z had made it to east central IL, and will continue to slowly move to south overnight. Weak high pressure will follow the front, causing light winds and so some patchy dense fog possible over region, with the main area northwest of IL river. Dry period will be short lived though, as the upper trough remains over southwest US.
638 PM CDT Tue Mar 27 2018 Moisture channel satellite still shows upper low spinning in southern AZ. Cold front by 20z had made it to east central IL, and will continue to slowly move to south overnight. Weak high pressure will follow the front, causing light winds and so some patchy dense fog possible over region, with the main area northwest of IL river. Dry period will be short lived though, as the upper trough remains over southwest US.
823 PM CDT Tue Mar 27 2018 Mostly clear skies will remain through the night with lows in the lower to mid 30s. This low will continue to track east across southern Canada tonight, dragging a frontal boundary across the area late tonight into Wednesday morning. Right now, it appears the front will move through dry, with any precipitation north of the area closer to the low tonight, then south and southwest of the area on Wednesday in association with low pressure over the Southern Plains. Highs on Wednesday will be in the lower 40s to lower 50s, with the warmer temperatures across the southern CWA.
912 PM CDT Tue Mar 27 2018 Regional radar mosaic this evening as of 9 pm shows the cold front near a Camden, Ar, to Sarepta and Blanchard, La, to near Henderson and Jacksonville, Tx. Progs are in good agreement that as we go through the night, the low level jet will increase to near 50kts and should begin to override the sfc frontal boundary which should help it to pull up completely stationary. This further strengthening of the low level jet will likely help to consolidate overnight convection just north of the sfc frontal boundary and believe we are already seeing signs of this with an uptick in post-frontal convection this evening as the low level jet increases.
335 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2017 Arctic high pressure will make a slow transition across the area through Monday.
/issued 226 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2017/ Leading edge of arctic air/subfreezing temperatures was nearly to I-40 this hour with a few reports of flurries to the north.
The latest ir satl was showing mostly clear to partly cloudy skies across the region as a ridge of high pressure builds into the area tonight. The dry conditions can be expected to persist into tomorrow morning while overnight temps fall into the 20s except in the teens over the higher elevations.
Locations where more cloud cover has been located and where the snow pack is not as great, are the locations where temperatures are warmer.
Temperatures are currently running from around 10 degrees to the north, to the low to mid 20s in the south. Even though very little snow is expected to fall, road surface temperatures will be cold enough to allow snow to accumulate in isolated instances, particularly on untreated surfaces and bridges and overpasses. This pattern highlights a stubborn ridge in the western CONUS along with a persistent trough over the east in the longwave pattern. The beginning of the extended features the first of two migratory arctic high pressure centers that slide southeast into the region. This feature continues to effectively keep the bulk of the passing waves along the trough to the north over the upper OH Valley through midweek while keeping bitterly cold temperatures over the region.
Sunday night, minimum temperatures are expected to range from the low single digits to mid teens across the region. Additionally, winds are expected to be between 5 and 10 kt with slightly higher winds possible at times across the higher elevations as well as the southern plateau and ridgetops around Chattanooga. This will lead to very cold wind chills of -5 to -10 along the higher elevations of the mountains, southwest Virginia, southwest North Carolina, and the Cumberland Plateau. 1 inch or less and Td near zero across lower elevations and below zero across the higher terrain.
1041 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2017 Water vapor satellite this afternoon shows a short wave trough over the Northern Rockies. The upper level flow will remain northwest as ridging remains anchored over the Rockies.
249 AM MST Sun Dec 31 2017 High pressure will remain dominant across the region through the upcoming week. Temperatures will continue to run above normal with highs mostly in the 70s across the lower deserts. Upper level ridging will remain over the Southwestern U.
Winds are already out of the north, but the front itself and cooler wx will filter in thru the day Sunday and Sunday night. Northerly winds around the backside of a upper Texas coastal water area of low pressure will remain in place. The approach and passage of an early Sunday cold front will strengthen these northerlies in its wake tomorrow afternoon. possible IFR visbies late tonight with highest probability of dense fog over GLS occurring just ahead of the cold frontal passage.
Temperatures are currently running from around 10 degrees to the north, to the low to mid 20s in the south. Even though very little snow is expected to fall, road surface temperatures will be cold enough to allow snow to accumulate in isolated instances, particularly on untreated surfaces and bridges and overpasses.
100 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2017 Trending SKC for sky cover with high pressure building south. On Sunday the broad upper level low centered over the Great Lakes region shifts east taking the coldest of the Arctic air mass over our area with it.
as an H5 ridge remains off the West coast during this time. with a broad upper low over the eastern portion of the country/Canada. strong (1050-1054mb) ridge builds down from the Northern Plains/Rockies. 850 temps support overnight lows of -5F to -10F Sunday night w/ coldest locales over the east due to their proximity to the ridge axis and lighter winds. Models also shift H5 ridge from the Pacific coast eastward into the Rockies/Central Plains as the week progresses.
A gradual eastward shift to the eastern CONUS trough will eventually lead to some relatively warmer weather to close out the next work week.
Most of the mid slopes, Raton Mesa and Palmer Divide will see upper 50s to near 70 degrees through this afternoon, while areas along the lower Arkansas River Valley stay in the teens. Areas that have seen warmer temperatures are seeing gusty west winds. an upper disturbance is passing by to the northeast, but will send a cold front south across the Plains later this evening. In addition, areas of freezing fog and flurries will redevelop across much of the Plains tonight once winds transition easterly. Overnight lows will fall into the lower teens to single digits over the Plains. Areas of freezing fog and flurries will likely prevail through much of the day for portions of the Plains. Mozley A high pressure ridge will remain over the West Coast through Monday, then slowly migrate east through the week.
This could bring a short period of light snow showers to the far south and ridges later today. The highest Pops will be over the ridges and this would be the locations that would most likely see any minor accumulations. Steering winds at 850mb are lined up well to have a snow band extend from Lake Erie southeastward into the ridges. Snow showers should develop once again Monday as the main upper level trough axis drives through the region. With winds aloft, west of north-west, expect most of the snow showers Monday to be over the favored lake band locales and higher ridges.
TFJ A low pressure system is forecast to weaken and exit the region to the southeast this evening with snow coming to an end by early evening for northeast Montana. Behind the low pressure system an arctic high pressure system is forecast to drop south along the Canadian and northern rockies ushering some very cold temperatures.
321 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2017 A bit busy early this morning with areas of freezing drizzle across portions of western/southern Oklahoma into western north Texas along with some light snow farther north. May see patchy light freezing drizzle or light snow continue for a bit after sunrise across southern Oklahoma and north Texas and will monitor the radar trends to see if an extension of the Winter Weather Advisory for a few more hours is needed.
Split upper level flow is currently in place over the southeastern part of the country; the northern branch of the jet composes a broad trough over the northern states, while a subtropical jet currently resides to our south across the Gulf of Mexico. Along with a broad area of high pressure across our area at the surface, this will result in continued dry conditions and light/variable winds through tonight. Increasing cloud cover will keep temperatures slightly less cool across western areas; SE Alabama and the FL Panhandle will likely remain in the lower 40s inland and mid 40s near the Gulf Coast respectively.
A bit of freezing drizzle will continue along a line from NW AR to SE OK overnight. Cigs will begin to lift and then scatter out during the afternoon as high pressure settles into the region. Reports through the evening indicate patchy freezing drizzle has developed slightly further northward through portions of NW AR and the previous advisory was expanded accordingly for possible slick spots on roadways.
A cold front is currently draped across northern Florida, reaching to a subtle wave in the extreme northwestern section of the Gulf of Mexico.
The models are showing an upper level longwave ridge shifting eastward from the Pacific West Coast into the Rockies and Central Plains as the week progresses, then flatten out as we head into the weekend. Meanwhile, On the surface there is a low pressure system over the northern Great Lake Region that is moving northeastward and behind it is a high pressure system that will transits down into the Southeastern U.
1254 AM EST Sun Dec 31 2017 Canadian high pressure across the region will be reinforced behind a dry cold front overnight. A broad upper level trough will remain over the eastern CONUS. A dry cold front will shift south through the forecast area tonight, shifting winds from SW to NE, with colder and drier air filtering in behind it. Some increase in moisture may occur Sunday and Sunday night with a weak inverted trough lingering in the wake of the cold front. The coldest day will be Monday with highs only in the low to mid 30s.
We expect this pattern to hold through mid-morning, then the low-level flow is expected to back slightly, as the trajectory shifts from 320-330 towards 300-310. Continued cold air with minor moderation as the axis of the upper level trough moves east.
1146 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2017 Sunday morning low ceilings that will waver from LIFR to IFR as colder and drier air filters in behind a cold front. The surface cold front is now analyzed somewhere near the coast but the bulk of the coldest. Periods of inland IFR fog early in the day with the highest prob for IFR fog occurring closer to the coast around sunrise. Winds are already out of the north, but the front itself and cooler wx will filter in thru the day Sunday and Sunday night.
309 AM EST Sun Dec 31 2017 Models in good agreement in building a strong arctic high pressure system into the southeast U. New Years Day looks to be a cold day with much of north Georgia not getting above freezing.
205 AM EST Sun Dec 31 2017 Canadian high pressure will maintain very cold conditions through the week.
Expected ridging aloft over western NOAM will support re- amplification of downstream troughing over eastern NOAM.
1013 PM MST Sat Dec 30 2017 Modified Arctic air will move south across the area tonight behind a cold front that has moved south across the Bighorn basin and Johnson county with areas of snow behind the front. With the very cold air do not anticipate much water with the snow behind the cold front, mainly very low density snow.
Freezing drizzle and fog are expected to develop as well and last through much of the day. This air is very shallow, but is bringing the boundary layer to saturation, w/accompanying stratus/freezing fog.
Readings are in the 15 to 20 below range across west central MN with wind chills in the low -40s at Morris and Benson.
302 AM EST Sun Dec 31 2017 Intense low pressure will remain over the Maritimes today and Monday.
A secondary trough is now moving through and will bring snow showers across the southern tier until midnight with up to an inch possible. Continued cold air with minor moderation as the axis of the upper level trough moves east.
although northern valley still seeing fairly light winds which are keeping wind chill values slightly warmer. High pressure over region is resulting in lighter winds over northern valley but ambient temps in the 20s below keeping wind chill warning well in tact. The Arctic high pressure center will nose down out of Canada into the Western Plains. At this point it seems like readings will be slightly less cold as warmer 925mb temps come in from the north.
Late night and early morning wind chills will range from around zero near the Arkansas border to the -10 to -15 range along and north of the Highway 60 corridor. High temperatures will struggle to warm out of the single digits across central Missouri with most of southern Missouri only warming into the lower to middle teens. Arctic high pressure will then continue to build into the region from Sunday night through Monday night.
North to northeast winds will increase behind a cold front before sunrise Sunday. Made some slight adjustments to the weather forecast: removed freezing drizzle across central/northern Oklahoma, and increased the strength of the wording of freezing drizzle across the Red River region. All precipitation is too light to show up on radar, but various reports suggest the freezing drizzle/snow line is currently in southern Oklahoma. It doesn't take much freezing drizzle to cause serious travel problems. The first will be the potential for freezing drizzle mainly this evening and especially overnight. It appears the main precipitation type will be freezing drizzle with a possible change to snow by early Sunday morning. At this time, it appears the lowest wind chill values will occur Sunday night into Monday.
226 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018 Warm and humid conditions to continue as high pressure continues to be the dominant weather feature over the region. Temps across the area this afternoon are running in the lower to middle 80s which is some 10-15 degrees above climatological norms. Temps are slightly cooler along the coast where a seabreeze is helping to cool things off just a touch. Moisture in the lower levels is a bit more limited compared to yesterday although it is still possible to see a few low topped showers developing this afternoon and evening across the far interior and southern zones.
Otherwise, the biggest non-weather phenomenon trouble spot going right now is if/how roads are adversely affected by ground level blowing/drifting snow that melts today as temps approach or exceed the freezing mark and then refreezes after sundown creating localized icy/slick spots. Will continue to mention blowing snow today, but appears the main issue will be drifting onto road surfaces warmed by the sun, but still below freezing resulting in slick spots.
1208 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018 Late morning surface observations show a cold front located in between HOU and LBX/GLS with southerly winds around 10 knots ahead of the front and north to northeast winds 5-10 knots behind the front. South of the this boundary dewpoints are in the low 70s, while to the north of this feature dewpoints are in the 50s.
Been a little concerned about wind shift line easing into the April-like warm and soupy air mass (dew points in the lower 70s) but atmosphere itself is relatively stable and a pretty broad depth of drier air arrives from west to east (above the eventually slightly cooler low levels) which should preclude anything more than isolated to scattered showers this afternoon.
220 PM MST Sun Feb 25 2018 Dry west to northwest flow will continue for the next 24 hours with only orographic cumulus over ridges expected. Over the next 24 hours the approaching trough will split and the first signs of that can be seen just off the WA and OR coasts. The NAM12 is the first model to close off the 500 mb low over northern CA Monday afternoon, where the GFS and ECMWF move the trough slowly and develop the closed low late Monday evening.
307 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018 Low pressure will track northeast this evening bringing an end to the precipitation across the region.
A low-amplitude ridge will arrive in its wake by dawn tomorrow. This ridge will depart to the E tomorrow AM with anticyclonic WSW flow. This high will build and become centered over the OH Vly tomorrow with a strengthening warm sector here.
1027 AM MST Sun Feb 25 2018 Upper level analysis has broad trof across the central CONUS, with ridging along the east and west coasts. Weak secondary wave associated with the main upper trof will cross the region early this morning, bringing a slight chance for some upslope snow showers over the northern Hills. A weak warm front will shift east across the area, and allow temperatures to warm into the 30s, with some lower 40s possible. Models are showing a weak ridge bringing a brief period of warmer temps to the area towards the end of the week, before colder air and chances for snow return this weekend.
Elsewhere precip will be less consistent due to down slope affects over the Columbia Basin and the highway 97 corridor. The system's cold front will move through the region late this afternoon and this evening.
A cold front is still working its way across Middle Tennessee this morning, with a band of light to moderate showers occurring along and ahead of the front. Some of the moisture passing through the mid state today will get picked back up by an 850 mb trough tonight, with MVFR cigs and light rain possible at CSV after 00Z.
Building high pressure will result in dry and mild conditions through the first part of the work week. Cloud coverage will gradually diminish as high pressure builds.
245 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018 Surface ridging centered over the middle/lower Mississippi River bringing in drier air into the area is leading to a lull in what has otherwise been an active pattern across the forecast area. A weak trough is currently just west of the forecast area, and will move through later tonight. This trough will not bring any rain, but rather some passing mid/upper level clouds.
The cold front is making slow progress to the east across the forecast area. The main upper level trough is lifting out to the northeast and is now in the Great Lakes into Southern Canada.
810 AM PST Sun Feb 25 2018 Today will be dry and warmer with locally gusty northeast winds near the coastal foothills and below passes and canyons.
254 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018 Elevated lift behind a cold front along with an upper-level disturbance continuing to generate showers and isolated thunderstorms across much of deep east Texas and north Louisiana. Weak upper-level ridging to bring a period of sunshine to the region on Monday across most locations with afternoon high temperatures forecast to climb to around 70 areawide.
1129 AM EST Sun Feb 25 2018 Showers are beginning to come to an end across the area as the cold front continues to make progress to the east. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler today with temperatures currently in the 50s and should remain around these values throughout the rest of the day with continued cloud cover and weak cold advection. Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 52 65 41 / 90 70 20 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 49 63 39 / 100 60 20 0 Oak Ridge, TN 60 48 63 38 / 80 50 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 47 60 34 / 100 60 40 0.