Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
341 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2020 Surface cold front is currently moving through our region. Dry conditions are expected with this front and we just look to see a wind shift to the northwest and slightly cooler temperatures for Sunday. After Sunday, models show a longwave trough digging into the midwest and sets up a cooling trend to start the work week.
359 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2020 A cold front passes across the area today and brings a switch to brisk northwest winds.
For 12Z Aviation discussion below A cold front passes across the area today and brings a switch to brisk northwest winds.
or after 09Z Monday as the region falls just downstream of the next cold front. The approach and passage of a weak cold front tomorrow will significantly increase tonight's shower chances. The first cold front will finish moving through the coastal waters Monday evening.
307 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2020 (Today and Tonight) Low level moisture returns today, ahead of an upper low that will move east across the Texas Panhandle late this afternoon/overnight. It will be slightly warmer today with highs in the mid and upper 60s, with lows tonight in the 40s.
322 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2020 It appears we are seeing a pattern shift with the nice early wet start of the year changing to a more typical pattern with upper lows moving into the Central Plains leaving us dry and windy. Such is the case today with a low pressure system moving into southern Kansas bringing strong winds to the higher elevations of the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains, with very windy conditions spreading farther east into the western Permian Basin.
517 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2020 Fairly tranquil across the area in the warm sector of low pressure pushing eastward along the US/Canadian border. The aforementioned low will continue pushing east through Ontario today, pushing a weak cold front southward through the area. Will also see an increase in higher level cloudiness spread in in advance southern Plains low pressure. High pressure is expected to keep Monday dry but clouds will be thickening as that southern Plains low starts to move northeast through MO. Cooler northeast winds will keep highs confined in the 30s. Dry northeast flow around Canadian high pressure should keep bulk of any accumulation snow south of the area.
351 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2020 Today through tonight: High pressure ridging will continue to prevail across the area today and with southerly flow, temperatures will be warmer than previous days. Clouds will continue to be on the increase today out ahead of a deepening upper low and associated cold front in the planes.
The rain will spread into the St Louis metro area and southwest IL this evening, and into northeast MO and west central IL by late tonight as upper level divergence increases over our area ahead of the approaching upper level low/trough. The highest QPF should occur in southeast MO late tonight due to relatively strong low level theta-e advection and moisture convergence on the nose of a southwesterly low level jet ahead of the 850 mb low.
An upper trof near the 4 Corners area advances across the southern Plains to near the lower/mid Mississippi River valley on Monday, meanwhile starting to become absorbed into a larger scale upper trof pattern evolving over the central states.
517 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2020 High pressure will maintain dry weather today, with a continued warming trend. Rain returns on Monday with low pressure. The run of dry weather will continue through tonight as high pressure slowly settles towards the Deep South. The sun and continued weak warm advection should push temperatures into the lower 50s for much of the region this afternoon. With the clouds and continued mixing, temperatures should remain above freezing for the bulk of the region.
An upper low over the SW US will move into the southern plains by this evening. Showers will spread across the entire region tonight into Monday morning as a warm front moves through. Temps will climb into the lower 60s in the wake of the warm front on Monday. A cold front will then push through the region Monday afternoon into Monday evening with continued chances for showers and a few thunderstorms.
Current model analysis shows the closed low pressure system moving over northern Arizona early this morning. However most of the activity will be in the east as dry air moves in behind the cold front through the day.
/issued 322 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2020/ It appears we are seeing a pattern shift with the nice early wet start of the year changing to a more typical pattern with upper lows moving into the Central Plains leaving us dry and windy. Such is the case today with a low pressure system moving into southern Kansas bringing strong winds to the higher elevations of the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains, with very windy conditions spreading farther east into the western Permian Basin.
514 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2020 Surface cold front is currently moving through our region. Dry conditions are expected with this front and we just look to see a wind shift to the northwest and slightly cooler temperatures for Sunday. After Sunday, models show a longwave trough digging into the midwest and sets up a cooling trend to start the work week.
To the west, a surface cold front continues to push east/southeast into central ND. Along and behind the trough and cold front, winds have been gusting into the 15-25 knot range in response to a tightening low level pressure gradient. With temperatures reaching well above freezing over the past couple of days, snow packs should have a decent crust in place that will mitigate blowing snow potential. However, mostly clear skies and west winds will help temperatures remain in the 30s despite the cold frontal passage. Little to no precipitation is expected with the passage of the cold front with the exception of far northern Minnesota where ensemble guidance continues to show the potential for a few flurries later this afternoon.
A clipper system will pass to the north of the region, and bring a cold front through the forecast area during the afternoon and evening. In fact, the arrival of the cold front should promote deeper mixing. On Monday, developing northeast winds and increasing clouds will lead to a cooler day, but temperatures will remain above normal, with highs in the middle to upper 30s.
342 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2020 Mild and breezy conditions are expected through early afternoon, but cooler temperatures and an increasing chance for snow are expected this afternoon through Monday. Scattered to numerous snow showers will develop over the western mountains this afternoon, then will spread out over the plains and the lower elevations of southwest Montana tonight.
Meanwhile, southwesterly upper-level flow will return to the area today ahead of the low, which will bring an increase to mid and upper-level moisture. Temperatures on Sunday will remain slightly below seasonable normals with highs in the mid to upper 50s generally north of I-20 to the lower to mid 60s south of I-20.
409 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2020 Much warmer temperatures this morning across southeast Texas and southwest. The upper level pattern this morning shows the ridge axis has just moved into eastern Louisiana with an upper level over the 4cnrs region of the United States.
A relatively weak cold front moving in from the north will result in wide temperature spread with mid 40s north and upper 50s south. An upper low currently over the 4-corners region will be the focus for deteriorating conditions through the period.
601 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2020 Another dry day will be in store today, as southerly winds continue to usher warmer temperatures into the region. Southerly winds will continue to usher in the warmer air to the Midwest today. As with yesterday, needed to bump temps a couple degrees to account for the warmer airflow. As Low pressure drifts into the Midwest Monday, forecasting precipitation to overspread the region during the day Monday. Temperatures early Monday morning throughout much of the area will be above freezing, leading to rainfall. however, some locations along and north of I-74 from Galesburg to Bloomington could see light freezing rain early Monday morning. No accumulations are expected at this time, as warmer conditions from the weekend will aid in ice inhibition.
A cold front is coming and bringing wind and snow with it.
Lighter winds return early this week as high pressure settles into northeast California and western Nevada.
Dry slot will end rain chances across much of the area by Monday morning, with areas of light rain lingering across far northeast OK into northwest AR near the upper low.
Today through tonight: High pressure ridging will continue to prevail across the area today and with southerly flow, temperatures will be warmer than previous days. Clouds will continue to be on the increase today out ahead of a deepening upper low and associated cold front in the planes.
333 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2020 A change is in the air as a cold front is expected to move across the forecast area. As of 08Z, cold front is working into the far northwestern portions of South Dakota. Cold front is expected to work south today leading to cooler temperatures and breezy northwest winds developing. Temperatures will still be relatively mild south of I-90 as cooler air will take the better part of the day before settling in. Clouds and winds will be on the increase on Monday as upper level trough approaches from the west and pressure gradient increases across the plains.
The approach and passage of a weak cold front tomorrow will significantly increase tonight's shower chances. The first cold front will finish moving through the coastal waters Monday evening.
High pressure centered over the SE coast will continue to slide east today. Overall, leaned toward the higher side of guidance given the steady warm advection component, and what at least some partial sunshine. This will put us in the low to mid 50s in most spots.
Weather pattern shows a near zonal flow today as the pronounced, cold, upper level low pressure trough moves up and over the continental divide tonight. The exact track of the low pressure center and its associated dry slot is still uncertain. During the day on Monday, as the low pressure trough matures into a closed low center, the dry slot finally saturates and fills in the snow fall as the storm moves south through the remainder of eastern Montana and western North Dakota.
Satellite indicates the upper low was located near the Four Corners region early this morning with clear skies across northern California in its wake. Slightly cooler temperatures will be seen across the area today behind the aforementioned system, with Valley highs in the mid and upper 60s and temperatures in the 40s and 50s in the mountains. A trough moves across the PacNW today, although it brings little more than a few clouds to the northern portion of the CWA with any precipitation remaining north of the area. Ridging builds back in Monday through mid-week keeping dry weather in place.
927 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2020 High pressure will maintain dry weather today. Rain returns tomorrow with a crossing low pressure system. Dry and sunny conditions will continue through this evening as high pressure slowly settles towards the Deep South. With prevailing southwest flow, temperatures should remain above freezing overnight for the bulk of the region.
Mild and breezy conditions are expected through early afternoon, but cooler temperatures and an increasing chance for snow are expected this afternoon through Monday. Scattered to numerous snow showers will develop over the western mountains this afternoon, then will spread out over the plains and the lower elevations of southwest Montana tonight.
A cold front will move through the area tonight and into Monday morning bringing a few light snow showers to northern Elko County.
747 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2020 High pressure will maintain dry weather today, with a continued warming trend. Rain returns on Monday with low pressure. The run of dry weather will continue through tonight as high pressure slowly settles towards the Deep South. The sun and continued weak warm advection should push temperatures into the lower 50s for much of the region this afternoon. With the clouds and continued mixing, temperatures should remain above freezing for the bulk of the region.
511 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2020 A change is in the air as a cold front is expected to move across the forecast area. As of 08Z, cold front is working into the far northwestern portions of South Dakota. Cold front is expected to work south today leading to cooler temperatures and breezy northwest winds developing. Temperatures will still be relatively mild south of I-90 as cooler air will take the better part of the day before settling in. Clouds and winds will be on the increase on Monday as upper level trough approaches from the west and pressure gradient increases across the plains.
Aloft, strengthening westerly flow awaits tonight and Monday as an upper low tracks just north of the I-40 corridor of TX and OK. Monday morning features a weak cold front edging southeastward with steady height falls through the day.
Low pressure will shift east of the area this morning. The next disturbance will bring a cold front through much of the state early Monday. High pressure will build into the region for the remainder of the coming week.
346 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2020 Another dry day will be in store today, as southerly winds continue to usher warmer temperatures into the region. Southerly winds will continue to usher in the warmer air to the Midwest today. As with yesterday, needed to bump temps a couple degrees to account for the warmer airflow. As Low pressure drifts into the Midwest Monday, forecasting precipitation to overspread the region during the day Monday. Temperatures early Monday morning throughout much of the area will be above freezing, leading to rainfall. however, some locations along and north of I-74 from Galesburg to Bloomington could see light freezing rain early Monday morning. No accumulations are expected at this time, as warmer conditions from the weekend will aid in ice inhibition.
Widespread rainfall will continue to overspread the area through the day Monday as the warm front lifts northward with the greatest coverage and heavier rainfall rates increasing Monday afternoon. Temperatures in these areas will struggle to rise above 50 degrees, while areas in central Georgia south of the warm front will warm into the 60s.
Highs may approach 80s degrees for Tucson by the end of the week as a ridge of high pressure shifts east into Arizona.
Considerable cloudiness has returned to the forecast area and will remain in place until a cold frontal passage expected late Monday. /issued 409 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2020/ Much warmer temperatures this morning across southeast Texas and southwest. The upper level pattern this morning shows the ridge axis has just moved into eastern Louisiana with an upper level over the 4cnrs region of the United States.
An upper level ridge will build in from the west this week, resulting in dry and warmer weather.
1101 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2020 Another dry day will be in store today, as southerly winds continue to usher warmer temperatures into the region. Southerly winds will continue to usher in the warmer air to the Midwest today. As with yesterday, needed to bump temps a couple degrees to account for the warmer airflow. As Low pressure drifts into the Midwest Monday, forecasting precipitation to overspread the region during the day Monday. Temperatures early Monday morning throughout much of the area will be above freezing, leading to rainfall. however, some locations along and north of I-74 from Galesburg to Bloomington could see light freezing rain early Monday morning. No accumulations are expected at this time, as warmer conditions from the weekend will aid in ice inhibition.
A low pressure system is expected to affect the area starting tonight, and lingering into the midweek period. In the wake of this system, high pressure is expected to move into the area for the later parts of the week. Models suggest an upper low, currently over the southern Rockies, will move into the southern Plains by sunrise Monday.
A system currently ejecting into the southern Plains will swing toward the lower Ohio Valley Monday. An isolated rumble of thunder may be possible in the afternoon as mid level lapse rates slightly steepen, though no severe weather is expected as a strong inversion remains in place in the low levels. Showers will continue until the low slowly works its way out to the northeast near Indianapolis. Since the low stays north of southern Indiana and central Kentucky during its movement, winds over the region will remain from the southwest.
300 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2020 Closed low over the four corners region this morning continues to track east and will be the impetus of some potential precipitation for our north central Kansas counties tonight.
Southerly winds on the back side of high pressure have allowed surface dewpoints to recover into the lower 40s. Rain chances will begin to gradually taper off Monday night as a cold front pushes through the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Despite warm temperatures, intense rain rates should help temps wetbulb into the low 30s by sunset, allowing for snow to develop although warm ground temps would limit accumulation.
High temperatures will range from the upper 70s along the east coast to the lower 80s across the interior sections.
247 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2020 (Tonight and Monday) An upper level trough will swing across the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma overnight, sending a Pacific front through West Central Texas. Mild conditions are forecast on Monday behind the weak cold front.
Current satellite and upper-air analysis shows the mid-level closed low that has brought rain and snow to northern Arizona is pushing into Colorado and New Mexico. Radar shows snow showers continuing behind the low, but the main band of precipitation has exited to the east. Current model analysis shows the closed low pressure system moving over northern Arizona early this morning. However most of the activity will be in the east as dry air moves in behind the cold front through the day.
Best rain chances still look to be tonight/early to- morrow with the passage of the cold front. Not a lot of changes from the previous TAF package with the over all timing of the cold front early tomorrow morning. The approach and passage of a weak cold front tomorrow will significantly increase tonight's shower chances. The first cold front will finish moving through the coastal waters Monday evening.
1214 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2020 High pressure will maintain dry weather today. Rain returns tomorrow with a crossing low pressure system. Dry and sunny conditions will continue through this evening as high pressure slowly settles towards the Deep South. With prevailing southwest flow, temperatures should remain above freezing overnight for the bulk of the region.
205 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2020 High pressure will maintain dry weather today. Rain returns tomorrow with a crossing low pressure system. With prevailing southwest flow, temperatures should remain above freezing overnight for the bulk of the region. The approaching low pressure system is expected to weaken early Monday morning over the Mississippi River before advancing into the Great Lakes.
A weak cold front will move through the area overnight, resulting in northwest winds of 8 to 12 knots. /issued 307 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2020/ (Today and Tonight) Low level moisture returns today, ahead of an upper low that will move east across the Texas Panhandle late this afternoon/overnight. It will be slightly warmer today with highs in the mid and upper 60s, with lows tonight in the 40s.
1120 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2020 Fairly tranquil across the area in the warm sector of low pressure pushing eastward along the US/Canadian border. The aforementioned low will continue pushing east through Ontario today, pushing a weak cold front southward through the area. Will also see an increase in higher level cloudiness spread in in advance southern Plains low pressure. High pressure is expected to keep Monday dry but clouds will be thickening as that southern Plains low starts to move northeast through MO. Cooler northeast winds will keep highs confined in the 30s. Dry northeast flow around Canadian high pressure should keep bulk of any accumulation snow south of the area.
The cap will be key to convective chances later tonight ahead of a Pacific cold front. While the core of the main forcing aloft will pass north of the region, the tail end of the forcing will assist with weakening of the cap just ahead of the cold front across portions of the Hill Country and I-35 corridor. Drier northwest flow and clearing skies will develop behind the cold front Monday morning. The Pacific nature of the front and downsloping flow will actually allow for warmer afternoon high temperatures tomorrow compared to today.
At the surface, an attendant low was located within the TX Panhandle region, with a warm front arching northeast through Central KS into extreme southeast NE. Areas southeast of the warm front have seen temperatures warm well-above average into the 50s and low 60s. High temperatures will be tricky across eastern KS -- if precipitation clears by late morning, temperatures could reach the upper 40s, but current thinking is clouds and lingering showers will hold into early afternoon keeping temperatures in the low to middle 40s.
Pleasant afternoon for east central Florida as temps have risen into the low/mid 70s with dry conditions. Low level easterly flow continues as ridge pushes into the western Atlantic. By the afternoon as the high pressure center shifts further east, winds begin to veer southeasterly and increase to around 15 mph along the coast. Highs will reach the lower 80s north to mid 80s central and south with more sun from Osceola and southern Brevard counties to Lake Okeechobee.
1204 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2020 Another dry day will be in store today, as southerly winds continue to usher warmer temperatures into the region. Southerly winds will continue to usher in the warmer air to the Midwest today. As with yesterday, needed to bump temps a couple degrees to account for the warmer airflow. As Low pressure drifts into the Midwest Monday, forecasting precipitation to overspread the region during the day Monday. Temperatures early Monday morning throughout much of the area will be above freezing, leading to rainfall. however, some locations along and north of I-74 from Galesburg to Bloomington could see light freezing rain early Monday morning. No accumulations are expected at this time, as warmer conditions from the weekend will aid in ice inhibition.
Portions of the Lower Keys continue to gust to 30 mph. The storm system near the Texas Panhandle will slide to the northeast tonight through Monday night, flattening the upper level ridge axis.
The track of this low will overlap nicely with strong low level frontogenesis and plenty of synoptic lift, noted in the upper level Q-vector divergence fields. As the motion of the low will parallel the orientation of the band (northwest to southeast), much of the southwest will experience decent residence time within the band even with the progressive nature of the system. It is important to note that there may be a gap in the higher totals between the two enhanced bands, but pinpointing where/if this pseudo dry slot develops will be impossible until we see how everything unfolds in real time.
Dry and warmer conditions will return throughout most of the week as high pressure builds over the state. A warming trend will begin on Monday and continue through the week as a ridge of high pressure builds over the state and weak northerly to offshore flow develops. Medium range models continue to hint at rain chances a week from today when an upper low drops south from the Gulf of Alaska and then onshore over Southern California. SFO Bridge Approach.
Surface cold front is currently moving through our region. Dry conditions are expected with this front and we just look to see a wind shift to the northwest and slightly cooler temperatures for Sunday. After Sunday, models show a longwave trough digging into the midwest and sets up a cooling trend to start the work week.