Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THIS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO. A HIGHLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN INCOMING TROUGH AXIS. SPEED OF THE TROUGH, 2. PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A NEW WESTERN TROUGH DEVELOPING/DEEPENING. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY HANDLE/DEVELOP THIS TROUGH.
The low level dry air in place may take a while to overcome, so initially it will not be surprising to have radar echoes far east across the PAH forecast area before measurable rain occurs at the ground.
Look for a drier but cooler trend by midweek. Winds will subside a bit tonight with rain increasing from south to north as the next warm front swings through.
407 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.
309 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND GREAT LAKES. A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM CANADA ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AS THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MORE NORTHERN TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING. WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE NERN AND MID ATLC COASTS WILL SLIDE EWD INTO THE ATLC PROVIDING ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH LIGHT E TO ESE FLOW. DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PUSHES THE DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U. THE HIGH STRETCHES WEST TO EAST. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF FLORIDA CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE AREAS WEATHER.
1237 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015 ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL PLOT INDICATED A BOUNDARY THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN WYOMING AND EASTERN COLORADO. SATURDAY STARTS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE MISS RVR VALLEY WITH RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST.
SHOWERS WINDING DOWN WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER ON TAP. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE STATE WITH BACK EDGE OF TROUGH AND DISTINCT DRYING MOVING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME. NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE STATE AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND HIGH PLAINS. WILL KEEP CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN SANGRE MTS. THOUGH SHOULD SEE WINDS DECOUPLING ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THOUGH THE EVENING. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FLATTENS ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
A PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE STATE TODAY. WITH SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN ARIZONA.
321 PM MDT FRI OCT 30 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS TONIGHT WITH A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW HAVE DIMINISHED EXCEPT FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AS THE SUN HAS LEAD TO SOME WEAK INSTABILITY. AFTER TODAYS COLD FRONT. READINGS IN THE TEENS TO 20S ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SATURDAY'S MAX TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. AN INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HELP WITH SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING AS WELL AS INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.
319 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015 An upper level trough of low pressure will continue to shift east towards the Ozarks tonight. Diffluent upper level flow in conjunction with strong and deep isentropic upglide in the low/mid levels of the atmosphere will support a shield of rain continuing to spread east into the Ozarks. That upper level trough will then slowly move across the Ozarks Saturday and Saturday evening. However, there will still be the potential for drizzle as a mid level trough attempts to squeeze out low level moisture.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BULGES NORTHWARD FROM NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE LOW LEVEL REFLECTION OF THIS ANTICYCLONE IS FRACTURED INTO TWO SYSTEMS. A LOCALIZED PRESSURE MINIMUM (EMACIATED TROUGH) CUTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A REVIEW OF SATELLITE ANIMATIONS INDICATES THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
The models were depicting relatively strong upper level divergence over much of our region ahead of the upper level trough. By Saturday evening most of the measurable precipitation should shift into southeast MO and southwest IL, south and east of STL as the upper level trough shifts into the Great Lakes region.
Convection will end tonight with the loss of daytime heating as well as the arrival of an upper low. The departure of the upper low will push a cold front south overnight.
142 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 A DRY PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
207 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 GRADUALLY ERODING CLOUDS TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY COOLER AND DRIER AIR AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN.
354 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
624 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 A DRY PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
1022 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISHED TODAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTS GENERALLY BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
851 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016 TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO FALL THIS EVENING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN TX AND HAVE TWEAKED LATE EVENING TEMPS TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS.
COLD FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING. PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. CLEARING BREEZY AND COOLER MONDAY BUT NOT AS COLD AS MET MOS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY AFTER THE FRONT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SKC BY 16Z.
611 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016 GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN SHOWERS.
658 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING, TRIGGERING A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND MAYBE SNOW SHOWERS.
mostly clear skies and drier air moving into the region behind the front will lead to a much cooler night tonight compared to last night. It will continue to move slowly through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening, with the movement of the low cloud deck in advance of the boundary mirroring the front's progress. Widespread thunderstorms, with some severe hail and wind potential, are still expected as the low level jet increases toward midnight tomorrow night and as a stronger cold front pushes through the region.
SHORT TERM: (Through Monday) Cold front is currently moving through the CWFA and should be completely through moving through into extreme southeast Missouri and southern Illinois by 03Z. Will see a nice rebound back into the 60s Monday afternoon as high pressure slides southeast of the region and the wind turns back around to the south-southwest.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN THE SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S AT THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME S TO SW TONIGHT AS A SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN CO AND ERN NM. S TO SW WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AT ALL TAF SITES BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH. THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THRU KGUY TOWARDS THE VERY END OF THIS CYCLE. AND THE NEW FORECAST SPREADS THE LOW POPS INTO NORTHWEST SECTIONS.
847 PM MST SUN FEB 28 2016 INCREASED POPS THIS EVENING AS A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA AROUND MIDNIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA LATER MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
557 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO IOWA THIS EVENING BRINGING DRIER AIR AND LIGHTER WINDS TO THE STATE. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE SWIFTLY AS WELL WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
950 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016 SFC/LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LIES ACROSS THE CTRL PENINSULA WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS DEVELOPING. WITH SOME L50S IN COOLER RURAL SHELTERED SPOTS. BENIGN BOATING CONDS CONTINUE WITH RIDGE AXIS ATOP ECFL MAOR.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY NWD INTO WRN MONTANA. GFS/ECMWF/CMC WERE QUITE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE WEST COAST TUE-WED.
A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN WITH WEAK OFFSHORE DEVELOPING BY THE MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH THE MOISTURE REMAINING BEHIND THE PRECIP AM EXPECTING THAT CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS WITH PATCHY FOG KEEPING FREEZING TEMPERATURES CONFINES TO THE FAR SOUTHERN END OF THE ILLINOIS AND APPLEGATE VALLEYS. THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST WITH A WARM FRONT BRINGING LIGHT PRECIP TO MOSTLY THE WEST SIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO THE NEXT WEAK STORM SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
657 PM PST SUN FEB 28 2016 A strong cold front will bring gusty winds, evening showers, and snow to the mountains.
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. CLEARING BREEZY AND COOLER MONDAY BUT NOT AS COLD AS MET MOS.
Updated at 825 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2016 Unseasonably mild and breezy this evening across the Ohio Valley, with the approaching cold front now extending from near SBN, between LAF and CMI, to east of STL. Gusty winds will continue this afternoon into the evening ahead of the cold front approaching from the northwest. Will likely keep the Special Weather Statement out for now as the higher wind gusts are mainly to the west of the forecast area. High pressure will be moving across the region Monday and east of the area Monday night as a low pressure system begins to approach from the west. Monday will be partly cloudy to mostly sunny, but cooler than today with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
642 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016 GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN SHOWERS.
742 PM MST SUN FEB 28 2016 WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER COLORADO WILL FLATTEN OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A DRY AIRMASS ARE IN PLACE OVER COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT BRUSHES NORTHEAST NEVADA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
850 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016 A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM ST.
A WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 40S AND MID 50S BEHIND IT. THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE THE HIGHEST PRESSURE RISES WILL OCCUR. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED THE MID 70S AT BOTH KEY WEST AND MARATHON WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. WITH AN INVERSION AT 6 KT AND EASTERLY IN THE LOW LEVELS. SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE STARTING ON MONDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE IN THE LOWER LEVELS BELOW AN INVERSION AT AROUND 6 KFT.
649 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH MONDAY.
A RE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION WILL PRODUCE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS THIS WEEK. CIRRUS IS ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHIFTS INLAND.
N WINDS BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.
1043 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING, TRIGGERING A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND MAYBE SNOW SHOWERS.
934 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016 GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN SHOWERS.
613 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH MONDAY.
/ISSUED 223 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS EVENING.
301 PM MST SUN FEB 28 2016 WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A DRY AIRMASS ARE IN PLACE OVER COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT.
933 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016 FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN ONGOING FORECAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER. WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
405 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AND MOVE EAST THROUGH TOMORROW. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE AREA MONDAY MAY INDUCE A WEAK SEA BREEZE AS DAYTIME TEMPS GET INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR DECENT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING NEAR THE COAST.
612 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016 THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE ON A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING BRINGING WITH IT A BURST OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER SNOW TOTALS AS SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW SOME BANDED STRUCTURE TO THE SNOW. BUT WE DO NOT EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL OCCUR AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WHERE QUITE A FEW OF THE HIGH RES MODELS DEVELOP SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE BORDERLAND MONDAY NIGHT.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 46 66 48 68 / 20 20 20 50 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 47 63 44 65 / 20 20 10 50 OAK RIDGE, TN 46 63 44 65 / 20 20 10 50 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 42 59 39 62 / 30 30 10 30.
928 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH MONDAY.
HOWEVER THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY. WIDE RANGE OF LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.
SO CURRENT FORECAST OF RECORD HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S INLAND AREAS LOOKS GOOD. ESPECIALLY OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS NEAR THE COAST WHERE VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1 NM AT TIMES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN LIFTING NEWD TOWARD SD.
INVERTED TROUGH ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA NORTHEAST ACROSS MEMPHIS TO JUST EAST OF PADUCAH HAS BEEN INSITU LAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT THINK FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG SOUTHEASTWARD AND TRY AND WORK INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS WE GO FORWARD IN TIME TODAY. A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN U.
700 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015 DENSE FOG HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF SD THIS MORNING AFFECTING AREAS FROM MOBRIDGE TO ABERDEEN. ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA KICKING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST US EARLY THIS MORNING AND ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN ACROSS NORTHERN FL WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN EAST OR SE WINDS OF NO MORE THAN 15 KNOTS TODAY.
THESE WARM TEMPERATURES ARE PARTLY THE RESULT OF A ~1030 HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORED WELL EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DRIVING A FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZE ACROSS THE KEYS. A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IS DRIVING MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. THE LOW TEMPERATURE SO FAR TODAY AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS 79 DEGREES. IF THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT DOES NOT DROP BELOW 79 DEGREES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
946 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY INTO SATURDAY.
548 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015 AT H5 TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, STRONG BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FLOW FROM DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM MAINE TO NEW YORK TO KENTUCKY THEN SOUTHWEST TO THE TEXAS COAST. STRONG 130KT+JET DIGGING TROUGH TO THE WEST FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE INITIALLY WITH MOIST LOWER LAYER AND DRY AIR ABOVE. HAVE SKEWED THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AGAIN TO THE SNOWLESS GROUND BUT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST HAVE KEPT HIGHS MAINLY AROUND FREEZING WITH UPPER 20S OVER SHERIDAN AND WESTERN CHERRY COUNTIES AND SOME MID 30S OVER THE SOUTHWEST. CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.
655 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2015 BASED ON SOUNDINGS HAVE INCREASED THE WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM THIS WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD SUB FREEZING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. COLD UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED INLAND OVER THE GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING OFF THE COAST BEGINS TO BUILD INLAND ENDING THE PRECIP THREAT. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND FOR DRY CONDITIONS THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA.
A SHARP 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL DIG SE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.
430 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015 The main forecast concerns with this forecast package deal with the longwave trof that continues to dig southeastward over the Western Conus this morning.
It will be mild and dry this Christmas with southwest flow aloft ahead of a deepening trof. Water vapor imagery is showing a deep trof centered over the Rockies. As the trof continues to deepen and move slowly east a cutoff low will develop over the triple point of SW New Mexico/SE Arizona/ Northern Mexico Saturday.
THE WARM PHASE OF THE STORM WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO A MORE DYNAMIC AND COLD PHASE AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES OVER EASTERN UT DURING THE MORNING. THE 700 MB TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THE REMAINING NE-SW ORIENTED TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT BEFORE CUTTING OFF A LOW OVER AZ ON SAT. FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE ENE ON SAT AND INCREASES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 71 64 75 64 / 100 60 30 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 71 61 73 60 / 100 60 30 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 70 62 73 60 / 100 80 40 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 57 70 56 / 100 60 40 20 NC.
DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC EXTENDING ACROSS N/C FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
Currently, a large trough resides over the western CONUS, with southwest flow extending from west Texas into the mid Atlantic States. On Saturday, the strong trough to our west will dig south and east toward Texas. At the same time, an arctic cold front will sweep south through west Texas, turning winds from south to north, and bringing sharply colder air. As the western trough approaches, synoptic scale lift will increase, and mid level lapse rates will steepen. The cold front will move south interacting with moist boundary layer air, likely resulting in thunderstorm development. 0-6km shear will increase rapidly along and immediately behind the front with values sufficient for producing strong to possibly severe thunderstorms as the cold front moves through.
CANCELLED THE FREEZING FOG ADVISORY ALONG THE HILINE.
THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF VFR FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND FRONTS. /ISSUED 507 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015/ WAVY COLD FRONT DRAPED OVER THE ARKLATEX FROM NEAR LUFKIN. THIS WILL KICK OUR SOUTHERLY WINDS IN GEAR AND PUSH THE WARM FRONT QUICKLY TO THE NORTH ALONG THE I-30 CORRIDOR. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL REDEVELOP ON THE NEW APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS IT SLOWLY WORKS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE CLOUD COVERAGE HAS HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY NEAR ROSEBURG AND ROGUE VALLEY NEAR MEDFORD. NEARLY OUR ENTIRE AREA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL STABILIZE TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF VALLEY LOW CLOUDS AND FREEZING FOG LIKELY TO FORM. THIS RIDGE WILL HAVE A SHORT-LIVED RESIDENCE OVER OUR AREA.
600 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TODAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.
507 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015 WAVY COLD FRONT DRAPED OVER THE ARKLATEX FROM NEAR LUFKIN. THIS WILL KICK OUR SOUTHERLY WINDS IN GEAR AND PUSH THE WARM FRONT QUICKLY TO THE NORTH ALONG THE I-30 CORRIDOR. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL REDEVELOP ON THE NEW APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS IT SLOWLY WORKS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
EVEN AS THIS OCCURS AND THE INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE A TOUCH DUE TO COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH. LIKELY COINCIDENT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE. A FEW HOURS OF NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW DOES MANAGE TO BISECT THE LOWER END OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. IN THE RIDGES. FRIES COLDER AIR WILL PULL BACK TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
651 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
AM GOING A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AS WE SHOULD HAVE A FEW MORE CLOUDS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. AND MAY DIP TO FREEZING FOR LESS THAN TWO HOURS IN SOME LOW LYING AREAS.
1041 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT WILL BE LIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
AREAS IN THE HIGHLANDS EAST OF INTERSTATE 15 ALSO CONTINUING TO SEE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. BURLEY JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO BE FALLING AS RAIN AND WILL WATCH CAREFULLY TO SEE IF PERSISTS LONG ENOUGH TO TURN TO FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE MAGIC VALLEY OR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. CURRENT STORM HAS SLOWED ITS EXIT AND SO HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO THE LATE NIGHT FOR THE VALLEY ZONES AND THROUGH FRI MORNING FOR THE HIGHLAND ZONES. THEN TURNING COLDER FOR SUN AFTER THE SECOND STORMS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
530 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016 CURRENTLY WATCHING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED N/S BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING EAST THROUGH EASTERN MN. STILL LOOKING AT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/2 TO PERHAPS AN INCH ON THE HIGHER END. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLIDES OVERHEAD TONIGHT FOR CLEARING AND COLD CONDITIONS.
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL SITES FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
355 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016 THE SPLITTING TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL IS COMING TO FRUITION. THE WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL EFFICIENTLY PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.