Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Quiet winter weather pattern continues under high pressure aloft. Deterministic guidance shows pressure gradients steepening over the Sierra Nevada and Cascade ranges as the current upper ridge continues to shift eastward. Otherwise, an in bound trough is being signaled by the ensemble cluster. Amplitude of the trough is in less agreement between the ensemble but the percentage of spread does show that the timing is becoming more certain.
Early Thursday, the responsible low pressure trough/disturbance moves east of our area and a warmer N/NW flow aloft moves in from the west.
Ceilings will be on the low end of MVFR at LRD with showers possibly leading to IFR ceilings and MVFR vsbys Thursday morning.
541 PM CST Wed Jan 26 2022 Temperatures this afternoon are a solid 15 to 20 degrees warmer than yesterday with pretty widespread sunshine allowing the light snowcover to melt away. Tonight, winds will shift to the northwest as an upper trough and associated cold front push through the area. Behind this cold front, we will see breezy northwest winds on Thursday afternoon (gusts 20-30 MPH). Flurries were added to the forecast for Thursday night as several models are showing some spotty light QPF in response to as secondary trough passage and the upper level jet nosing into the area.
Fog has been concentrated in the lower portions of the Rogue Valley near Grants Pass vs. the Bear Creek Valley near Medford, mainly because of the lower elevations and more moisture along the larger river vs.
Visible satellite imagery is showing clear skies over interior Northern California today as high pressure has set up over the West Coast. Ensemble guidance is in strong agreement that high pressure will be the dominant feature over Northern California through the end of the week and into the weekend, bringing continued dry conditions and seasonably warm temperatures. Temperatures today are forecast to top out in the low to mid 60s across the Valley and foothills and 40s to 50s in the mountains. Cool overnight temperatures are expected under clear skies and high pressure, with 30s in the Valley, 30s to 40s in the foothills, and teens to 30s in the mountains.
503 PM CST Wed Jan 26 2022 (This evening through Thursday) Some moisture has been observed filtering into West Central texas this afternoon, which should persist through this evening as the upper-level trough tracks easterly across the region. As of 2PM today there haven't been many observations showing precipitation reaching the ground up in the Big Country and northern portions of the Concho valley, mainly due to much drier air at the lower levels (Dewpoint temperatures in the single digits in some places). Expect cold overnight lows in the mid 20s (Big Country) to the upper 30s (South of I-10), which if fog develops over an area below freezing, can develop into freezing fog.
Weak low pressure off of the southeast FL coast will move toward the northern Bahamas overnight and slowly northeastward from there during the day on Thu. Pressure gradient tightens over the local waters with strong high pressure moving towards the mid Atlc coast and low pressure just off of the southeast FL coast.
351 PM MST Wed Jan 26 2022 The forecast focus in the short term is on the transient low pressure trough aloft moving across the region on Thursday that will bring a chance of light snow to the western sections of the forecast area. Eastern Colorado may see a few tenths of an inch of new snow on Thursday as the upper trough moves across. As skies clear out Thursday night in the wake of the exiting upper trough, low temperatures are expected to drop into the teens with dingle digits above zero along the axis of the recent significant snowfall.
Current satellite imagery shows a very weak cold front moving through the area, just moving through Hailey and Idaho Falls currently. This very weak system is breaking down the high pressure slightly. High pressure will quickly build back in this evening. Expect patchy freezing fog starting this evening. Thursday expect clear skies for mountains and stratus for valleys with dry conditions under high pressure.
205 PM MST Wed Jan 26 2022 pper level analysis shows large scale trough over the eastern US, with northwest flow from the western US through the Great Plains. Surface analysis has a warm front east of the Dakotas with a weak front/trough extending through western South Dakota; all of these features orginiate from an upper low across central Canada. Skies are mainly clear to partly cloudy with temps ranging from the mid 30s to the lower 40s. For tonight and Thursday, the cold front across central Canada will slide south-southeast into the Northern Plains. Should see a few inches of snow in the highest elevations of the Black Hills tonight into Thursday afternoon.
Another mostly clear and cold night will be in store for the Tennessee Valley once again as high pressure centered over the Plains remains in control of our weather. Lows tonight will bottom out in the low to mid 20s. The combination of a still mostly clear sky and southerly flow will help to warm our temperatures about 10-15 degrees higher than today -- and into the low to mid 50s by the afternoon.
248 PM MST Wed Jan 26 2022 A weak cold front will bring a period of light snow to primarily the mountains from this evening and through Thursday morning. Low temperatures tonight are expected to fall closer to climatological norms in wake of the front, with temperatures rebounding into the low 30s to low 40s for the day on Thursday.
639 PM EST Wed Jan 26 2022 Arctic high pressure prompts a burst of cold temperatures through tonight.
447 PM MST Wed Jan 26 2022 pper level analysis shows large scale trough over the eastern US, with northwest flow from the western US through the Great Plains. Surface analysis has a warm front east of the Dakotas with a weak front/trough extending through western South Dakota; all of these features orginiate from an upper low across central Canada. Skies are mainly clear to partly cloudy with temps ranging from the mid 30s to the lower 40s. For tonight and Thursday, the cold front across central Canada will slide south-southeast into the Northern Plains. Should see a few inches of snow in the highest elevations of the Black Hills tonight into Thursday afternoon.
Model guidance continues to indicate that freezing fog should develop at the area terminals late tonight into early Thursday morning which may lead to a round of LIFR conditions. /issued 300 PM CST Wed Jan 26 2022/ Upper level low pressure trough will cross the region late this afternoon and early this evening. RMcQueen Surface ridging will nose in from the north behind our next front on Thursday evening, providing another chilly night with lows in the teens and lower 20s.
635 PM EST Wed Jan 26 2022 Bitterly cold temperatures are expected through tonight under high pressure.
While temperatures are currently above freezing across a good portion of the area, the temperatures will cool to near the wet-bulb temperature as precip increases. Wet-bulb temperatures are currently below freezing across the entire area.
There will be a weak sfc trof that will fragment and move across the FA during the early morning hours. For tomorrow, weak high pressure will prevail. Warmer readings elsewhere. Lastly, there was a minor concern if freezing fog could develop during the morning hours as cold/moist air blows off the snowpack. Weak high pressure will continue across the state of Kansas on Friday. Weak lee troughing will resume during the weekend.
Temperatures range from 15 to 20 far north and Plateau, to the lower 20s south.
An inch or less is forecast to the northwest of a line running roughly from Dubois to the SW corner of PA, and 1-3" (increasing from NW to SE) where light snow will be more prolonged and orographic lift contributes in the ridges. There is an outside chance for patchy freezing drizzle overnight if the saturated layer remains to warm for ice crystal formation.
Ceilings will be on the low end of MVFR at LRD with IFR ceilings possible from 15-19Z Thursday.
1022 PM CST Wed Jan 26 2022 (This evening through Thursday) Some moisture has been observed filtering into West Central texas this afternoon, which should persist through this evening as the upper-level trough tracks easterly across the region. As of 2PM today there haven't been many observations showing precipitation reaching the ground up in the Big Country and northern portions of the Concho valley, mainly due to much drier air at the lower levels (Dewpoint temperatures in the single digits in some places). Expect cold overnight lows in the mid 20s (Big Country) to the upper 30s (South of I-10), which if fog develops over an area below freezing, can develop into freezing fog.
1028 PM MST Wed Jan 26 2022 Upper level analysis shows large scale trough over the eastern US, with northwest flow from the western US through the Great Plains. Surface analysis has a warm front east of the Dakotas with a weak front/trough extending through western South Dakota; all of these features originate from an upper low across central Canada. Skies are mainly clear to partly cloudy with temps ranging from the mid 30s to the lower 40s. For tonight and Thursday, the cold front across central Canada will slide south-southeast into the Northern Plains. Should see a few inches of snow in the highest elevations of the Black Hills tonight into Thursday afternoon.
/issued 949 PM CST Wed Jan 26 2022/ Midevening surface map showed an Arctic high pressure ridge axis extending from the Ohio valley into southeast MO.
At the surface, weak high pressure will move east across the Tennessee valley Thursday before washing out as stronger high pressure builds over the central US on Friday. After a cold start this morning, ample sunshine and dry low levels with a light easterly wind will yield highs likely climbing into the low to mid 60s across the area. Thursday night will be slightly warmer than the previous two nights as clouds will likely cut off radiational cooling and provide a sort of blanket across the area keeping temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s.
An area of high pressure aloft will be centered over the Pacific Northwest today. This upper-level area of high pressure will slowly progress southeastward into the Great Basin tonight through Friday night.
A cold front will move across the area tomorrow evening which will lead to a northeasterly wind shift. /issued 300 PM CST Wed Jan 26 2022/ Upper level low pressure trough will cross the region late this afternoon and early this evening. RMcQueen Surface ridging will nose in from the north behind our next front on Thursday evening, providing another chilly night with lows in the teens and lower 20s. Even warmer weather (many highs in the 60s) will follow this weekend as a deamplifying upper ridging spreads in from the west.
Warmer and quiet weekend. At mid afternoon high pressure was centered over western Illinois, with sunny skies across much of the area. With the clouds and a return to a more southerly flow on the back side of the high overnight lows will range from the lower 20s over the eastern Ozarks, to near 30 over southeast Kansas and western Missouri. The wave will exit quickly on Thursday morning, but clouds will linger across the area as a cold front pushes through during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will rebound into the low to mid 40s for afternoon highs, as the colder air will lag behind the front. After a cold and quiet day Friday with highs only in the 30s to near 40,upper level heights begin to rise as the western Ridge begins to slowly build eastward with time.
Tonight, the high pressure system will push off to the east and allow the winds to shift back to the south and west. The warming trend will be slow to start as Friday's temperatures will be warmer but not much above normal.
1022 PM EST Wed Jan 26 2022 Currently - A weak trough extends northeast to southwest across the area resulting in light northwesterly breezes along the Keys and surrounding waters. After topping out near 80 degrees, temperatures have come down to the lower to mid 70s. Expect overnight lows to range broadly from near 70 in the Lower Keys to mid to upper 60s in the Upper Keys. A weak trough axis across Keys waters will keep winds light and primarily out of the northwest.
A weak cold front will bring a period of light snow to primarily the mountains from this evening and through Thursday morning. Low temperatures tonight are expected to fall closer to climatological norms in wake of the front, with temperatures rebounding into the low 30s to low 40s for the day on Thursday. 430 PM MST Wed Jan 26 2022 (27/00Z TAF period) Low to mid-level cloud cover with embedded snow showers will develop south through this evening in association with a cold front and upper disturbance.
234 AM CST Thu Jan 27 2022 Based on the 08Z water vapor imagery, a broad cyclonic pattern persists over the central and eastern portions of North America with an upper ridge along the west coast. Meanwhile an upper through axis was rotating around the upper low over Manitoba. Surface obs showed a low pressure system north of Lake Superior with troughing extending back into the central plains. The cold front with this system was still north of MN and ND. As a result highs are still expected to make it into the lower 40s for most areas.
340 AM EST Thu Jan 27 2022 Discussion/Marine - Light Snow Developing Today - A cold front will gradually move in from the NW this afternoon and bring light snow showers. Some travel impacts are possible later today particularly well to the NW of KGRR due to the combination of the snow and brisk SW winds ahead of the cold front.
As the trough continues to push to the east, conditions continue to remain favorable. With the trough moving downstream, 500mb heights expand and northerly winds do decrease. As we progress into Friday and short wave trough does push into the region.
Some of the ensemble members output light qpf/snow across our east tonight-Friday, with the front making passage this evening and the upper trof Friday. We will continue the dry weather forecast for tonight-Friday, but would not be altogether shocked if some flurries did occur as the upper trof sharpens and cold air advection deepens.
This will ultimately result in warmer than expected high temperatures today. Tonight mostly clear skies will allow nocturnal cooling to maximize with lows falling into the 20s across the entire area with the exception of our very far southern counties where temps bottom out in the low 30s. Tomorrow high pressure dominating at the surface means another day of highs in the 50s and mostly clear skies with light easterly winds ahead of our next weather maker and cold front on Friday. 28 Coastal low pressure begins to develop and deepen off the Florida coast by early Friday morning. This low pressure system will continue to move up the eastern seaboard through the weekend. Precipitation on the backside of the low pressure is expected across eastern portions of the CWA.
These clouds will slow cooling by morning but sites across Highway 82 have already dropped below freezing and temperatures were on track to bottom out in the mid to upper 20s areawide. /22/ Prior discussion below: Cool, but dry conditions have prevailed today with plenty of sunshine thanks to high pressure prevailing at the surface. Heading into tonight, a weak mid-level trough will swing through the region. Slightly warmer temperatures will occur tomorrow with a range of the lower 50s in the north to the upper 50s/around 60 in the south.
The next trough will swing into the area late this evening and overnight and bring another bout of snow. Friday, the H5 ridge will be building east across the northern Rockies, and is still expected to deflect the storm track well to the north into Canada. The ridge will strengthen the capping inversions across the region, so any trapped cold pools, mainly in western valleys, will have trouble breaking through the weekend.
227 AM EST Thu Jan 27 2022 Dry and slightly warmer today.
Satellite shows widespread low stratus and areas of dense freezing fog advancing up the Snake Plain from the eastern Magic Valley early this morning. Will issue freezing fog advisory for the eastern Magic Valley and Raft River region where area of dense fog is likely for a time early this morning. High pressure will remain in control through Friday. Once again freezing fog and low stratus will remain possible in the valleys Thursday night into Friday morning.
1133 PM CST Wed Jan 26 2022 Temperatures this afternoon are a solid 15 to 20 degrees warmer than yesterday with pretty widespread sunshine allowing the light snowcover to melt away. Tonight, winds will shift to the northwest as an upper trough and associated cold front push through the area. Behind this cold front, we will see breezy northwest winds on Thursday afternoon (gusts 20-30 MPH). Flurries were added to the forecast for Thursday night as several models are showing some spotty light QPF in response to as secondary trough passage and the upper level jet nosing into the area.
1039 PM MST Wed Jan 26 2022 06Z TAF CYCLE The potential for patchy fzfg remains through the lower Pecos and Canadian River Valleys and nearby Caprock for KROW-KTCC-KCVN.
Behind the cold front this evening, winds are likely to pick up again in the Sisseton Hills and then into west central MN as the winds shift to the north on Thursday. Models have been struggling with the low QPF event on Thursday associated with caa and a weak low moving through central SD. The high will bring in much drier air cutting off the potential for snow showers, but good lift along the western edge of the arctic push will enhance showers. When the period opens on Friday, low WAA sequence is underway, while western CONUS upper level ridging gradually makes its way east over the Dakotas.
Another cold air reinforcement will be rushing out of Canada tomorrow ahead of a trough axis. A cold front will move through our area Thursday night. Models show some light QPF mainly along the Cumberland Plateau Friday morning ahead of the trough axis.
By tonight, however, another cold front will drop quickly south out of Kansas and into west Texas. Otherwise, low temperatures will range from the upper 20s in the Big Country to the low 30s in the Concho Valley and southward. Even though some showers are forecast, these are expected to move out of the area before temperatures fall to to freezing around sunrise.
weather map shows upper troughs moving through the northeast and portions of southern Canada while closer to home water vapor shows a compact upper trough moving through the southern Rockies and the Texas Panhandle. With low level flow increasing as the upper trough passes to our north, the clouds will stick around throughout the night, tomorrow and into Thursday night. After the panhandle wave passes tonight another upper trough will move south through the Rockies and increase clouds and chances of rain tomorrow night and early Friday. A cold front will accompany the next upper trough and should push through the area Thursday night and early Friday.
The cold front will cross southern WI during the late morning. These cloud layers are expected to thicken ahead of the surface cold front on Thursday. There will be a small chance for some very light snow showers ahead of and along the cold front tomorrow. Temperatures will climb to near 30 degrees tomorrow due to the impressive 850 to 925 warm air advection, but these warmer temperatures will be a little bit deceiving as wind chills will remain in the low to mid teens. Some lake induced low pressure and slightly converging north to northeast winds will create enough lift to generate some Lake effect snow showers. Colder air returns to southern Wisconsin behind the cold front Thursday.
949 PM CST Wed Jan 26 2022 Midevening surface map showed an Arctic high pressure ridge axis extending from the Ohio valley into southeast MO.
(Today and tonight) In the near term, the freezing fog advisory continues until 9 AM over southwestern Oklahoma where several inches of snow fell yesterday.
Boundary layer flow will remain calm for the duration of the night, as a ridge expands southwestward from an arctic high centered across the northern Mid-Atlantic states. The combination of a still mostly clear sky and southerly flow will help to warm our temperatures about 10-15 degrees higher than today -- and into the low to mid 50s by the afternoon. We'll likely see an uptick in cloud cover late in the day and into the evening/overnight hours as a deepening mid-level trough of low pressure dives SE from the Ohio Valley into the Southern Appalachians late Thursday night into Friday. Strong cold air advection will occur behind this system and its associated cold front. The cold air will stick around into the weekend even as high pressure attempts to build in at the surface as we remain underneath northwest flow aloft.
Cold air and building high pressure will result in efficient radiational cooling overnight. A wind chill advisory is in effect for the coldest locations, or areas along/north of I-80 and the high terrain of Tucker county where just a light wind will result in wind chill values around -10. Snow chances will increase Thursday night ahead of low pressure progged to cross the region on Friday.
JHM Visible satellite imagery is showing clear skies over interior Northern California today as high pressure has set up over the West Coast. Ensemble guidance is in strong agreement that high pressure will be the dominant feature over Northern California through the end of the week and into the weekend, bringing continued dry conditions and seasonably warm temperatures. Temperatures today are forecast to top out in the low to mid 60s across the Valley and foothills and 40s to 50s in the mountains. Cool overnight temperatures are expected under clear skies and high pressure, with 30s in the Valley, 30s to 40s in the foothills, and teens to 30s in the mountains.
Gusty southerly winds have developed this afternoon as Arctic high pressure continues to slide off to the southeast. temperatures eventually bottom out around in the lower teens by Thursday morning, with northwest winds likely leading to yet another period with hazardous wind chills below -25 degrees.
1226 AM EST Thu Jan 27 2022 Arctic high pressure prompts a burst of cold temperatures through tonight.
Infrared satellite revealed a clear sky over SW KS at midnight, but areas of freezing fog were noted over the snowpack across the northwest zones. Visibility has fallen to 1/4 mile along the US 83 corridor in the snowpack, both at Scott City and Garden City, and issued a dense fog advisory for this freezing fog threat through the night. Elsewhere, max temp grids are mainly in the lower 40s for a seasonably cold January day. Continued to undercut guidance, but believe temperatures over the snowpack will get over freezing Friday afternoon. Elsewhere, 40s will be common, ranging to the lower 50s on the parched soils of the far SW zones. Weak high pressure will continue across the state of Kansas on Friday. Weak lee troughing will resume during the weekend.
237 AM CST Thu Jan 27 2022 Today and Tonight: We are starting out today with temperatures a good 10 degrees cooler than normal. A sharp mid/upper trough will bring a reinforcing cold front across the area during the daytime tomorrow.
High pressure will build south over the forecast area today behind an exiting low pressure system that brought our strong winds yesterday. A backdoor cold front currently moving into the far northeast CWA will move southwest through much of the forecast area this morning, and then linger over southwest North Dakota this afternoon as a stationary front. With strong pressure rises associated with the backdoor cold front will utilize a blend of our higher guidance for winds through this morning.
High pressure will quickly retreat to the east through the day. An inch or less is forecast to the northwest of a line running roughly from Dubois to the SW corner of PA, and 1-3" (increasing from NW to SE) where light snow will be more prolonged and orographic lift contributes in the ridges. There is an outside chance for patchy freezing drizzle overnight if the saturated layer remains to warm for ice crystal formation.