Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
249 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020 Thunderstorms are firing across the Dakotas this afternoon as a short wave ripples around a building ridge over the Plains. Ridging will build in over the region this weekend and stick around through the period, allowing for warm and muggy conditions with slight chances for showers and storms each day.
a rather messy pattern is prevailing across the Nation as a trough beats down the broader scale ridging in place across the western 2/3's of the country. Conditions ahead of the front will be typical of late June; hot, and increasingly humid as gusty southerly winds ahead of the cold front advect moisture north. So, ahead of storms expected Friday night, it will be a hot and humid, with afternoon highs in the low 90s and a heat index in the upper 90s to around 100 for the afternoon. However, due to the broader ridging in place across the Nation, the shear is tied closely to the frontal boundary, only increasing overnight as the nocturnal jet begins to interact with the boundary.
southeast winds should return but be moderate and skies will remain broken to overcast with mainly VFR mid decks and patchy cumulus in the lower VFR range.
In between these two features, ridging will build in across the Mississippi Valley.
241 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020 Strong to severe storms are expected mid afternoon through this evening as a disturbance aloft and surface cold front pushes across the region. On Friday, most mesoscale models keep western Nebraska dry on Friday with fairly subsident conditions behind the cold front.
While most of the hi- res models keep the bulk of the action confined to the coastal plains, we have expanded some low pops back west into the Highway 90 corridor west of San Antonio for this afternoon. For late this evening and tonight, higher rain chances still appear to be focused along the Highway 77 corridor as some low-level lift interacts with deeper moisture to our east.
240 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020 An upper level trough will progress through our area today into tonight. High pressure briefly builds over our region Friday, before a cold front moves through this weekend. Height falls associated with a trough axis approaching the Potomac Highlands will sustain the convective activity through the afternoon. Should be a decreasing trend after sunset, but isolated showers may continue within the trough axis past dark, primarily affecting points southeast of I-95. Heights will be rising Friday as the 500 mb trough departs. Broad ridging will affect the southeastern United States, with modest warm advection.
However, there is a weakness in the upper level ridging from south Texas north into Oklahoma, with some tropical moisture moving north into the I-37/I-35 corridor on Friday.
253 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020 Upper level low to our north will produce showers and thunderstorms across parts of the region through this evening. High pressure and a nice day expected Friday before another front brings more unsettled weather this weekend. Then aforementioned upper level low in Canada will dip south over the Northeast U. Upper level low remains to our north in Canada and has been nearly stationary. Then high pressure will be in control on Friday with the upper level trough slowly exiting east of our area. There may be an isolated shower, especially across the higher elevations of the Catskills and/or Poconos during the afternoon, but coverage will be so low, have kept PoPs below 20 percent.
1235 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020 Water vapor and IR Satellite show the overall synoptic pattern shifting as troughing moves east and ridging starts to build into the area. This will set our area up for potential severe weather with a thermal ridge over northern Missouri and dewpoints into the low to mid 70s ahead of the boundary. This strong WAA in the low level along with convergence ahead of the boundary appears to be enough to break the capping inversion over northern MO by the late afternoon.
403 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020 In the wake of an upper level trough, southwest flow will bring a moisture feed to the region from Friday onward, increasing the threat of shower and thunderstorm activity as highs reach into the middle and upper 80s.
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather through at least Friday morning. Clouds will be on the increase Friday ahead of an approaching warm front associated with an area of low pressure over western Ontario. 75") and a 500mb trough moves overhead and cools the mid- levels. The winds will back to more southwesterly by Friday morning ahead of the aforementioned warm front and once again become gusty during the afternoon hours. Temperatures tonight will drop into the low to mid 50s tonight, while highs Friday will be in the upper 70s to upper 80s and be more humid.
Scattered thunderstorms are possible tonight, as a warm front shifts across the area. High pressure over the southeast U. Thunderstorm chances will hold off until later this evening when a warm front moves in from the southwest. High pressure will provide plenty of sunshine and light winds across central Illinois today, allowing afternoon highs to top out in the middle 80s. As the high shifts eastward, a developing warm front will lift into the region from the southwest tonight. S/SW winds gusting 20-25mph in the wake of the warm front will boost highs into the lower 90s, while peak afternoon heat index values reach 95-100 degrees.
1238 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020 An upper level trough will pivot across the region today, then lift out by Friday.
Cooler temperatures in the wake of a cold front and with more cloud cover.
Otherwise expect mostly sunny skies and breezy northwest winds across the rest of SW Idaho and SE Oregon today as a ridge develops.
Subtle warm front positioned in the vicinity of I-90. Potential for storms continues into Friday as slow moving cold front moves through the area. Could see additional showers and thunderstorms through the day on Friday, with the greatest chances across northwest Iowa along and ahead of the cold front. With drier air around the region, lows should fall into the lower 60s.
238 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020 Scattered thunderstorms are possible tonight, as a warm front shifts across the area. A cold front approaching the area Friday night, will bring scattered thunderstorms. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to overspread the area from the southwest tonight, as convergence on the nose of a 30-35 kt 925-850 mb jet impinges on a warm front lifting northeast. Southwest winds will gust near 25 mph during the afternoon, helping push highs into the lower 90s.
Skies had cleared this evening with surface ridging across the Ohio Valley. Largely quiet night in store with surface ridging across the region. CAMs continue to try and develop isolated convection towards daybreak along a warm front arcing from the upper Midwest southeast into the region. expect a night with lows falling into the lower and middle 60s for lows.
High altitude ridging over the western Gulf is providing mostly light to moderate northerly winds aloft.
Focus remains on storm chances Fri/Fri night as warm front passes during the day and cold front then sweeps in Fri night. Best surge of increasing theta E air and resulting increase in instability starts mid to late morning as the warm front moves SW to NE. Some models continue to hint at a fair amount of capping in the warm sector which could hinder any development in the afternoon/eve hours until the cold front arrives after 3-6Z Sat. Strengthening gradient ahead of approaching cold front will have southwest winds gusting to 25kt Friday afternoon.
With surface dew points in the low 60s and effective bulk shear in the 35- 40 kt range, there is an environment capable of producing supercells in south-central North Dakota given the non- zero potential for initiation.
531 PM MDT Thu Jun 25 2020 Southwest flow and energy ahead of the positively tilted trough to our west has supported scattered showers and thunderstorms to fire off higher terrain across most ranges in eastern Utah and western Colorado early this afternoon. Additional cells popping up will drift east- northeast through this evening, until diurnal heating ceases and the lower atmosphere stabilizes. Energy to our west pinches off into a closed low overnight and will slide south across the Great Basin. Areas along the Wyoming border will experience some cooling, however, the remaining two-thirds of the CWA will remain trapped under a warmer air mass. The trough's progression will bring a subtle drop in temperatures for Friday, though again highs will remain above normal for most of the area.
551 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020 Scattered thunderstorms are possible tonight, as a warm front shifts across the area. A cold front approaching the area Friday night, will bring scattered thunderstorms. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to overspread the area from the southwest tonight, as convergence on the nose of a 30-35 kt 925-850 mb jet impinges on a warm front lifting northeast. Southwest winds will gust near 25 mph during the afternoon, helping push highs into the lower 90s.
940 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020 In the wake of an upper level trough, southwest flow will bring a moisture feed to the region from Friday onward, increasing the threat of shower and thunderstorm activity as highs reach into the middle and upper 80s.
Upper trof is still expected to progress across the state through tonight, with trailing sfc front currently pushing into the western Missouri Valley.
A frontal boundary located roughly over the TN Valley has pushed further south and currently stretches off to the southwest from low pressure over the Mid Atlantic, across the southern Appalachian, then back into the MidSouth. Aloft, a trough axis is moving through the Ohio Valley from low pressure up over Quebec. The trough has kicked off a line of scattered showers and thunderstorms to our northeast. Short wave ridging builds into the region overnight. In between these two features, ridging will build in across the Mississippi Valley.
701 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020 In the wake of an upper level trough, southwest flow will bring a moisture feed to the region from Friday onward, increasing the threat of shower and thunderstorm activity as highs reach into the middle and upper 80s.
Issued by National Weather Service Rapid City SD 623 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020 Strong to severe storms are expected mid afternoon through this evening as a disturbance aloft and surface cold front pushes across the region. On Friday, most mesoscale models keep western Nebraska dry on Friday with fairly subsident conditions behind the cold front.
717 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020 Mostly dry and seasonable conditions will persist under high pressure through Friday afternoon, with additional showers and thunderstorms expected late Friday through the weekend. Coverage should remain isolated and rather shallow given diurnal cooling and mid- level ridging, hampering any severe concerns.
VFR conditions are expected through the period, with the exception being with thunderstorms that will attempt to move in off the higher terrain this evening.
We will transition out of NW flow, with high pressure over the southeast U.
Upper trough to the north will move off the east coast later tonight with ridge to the south expanding north into our area on Friday.
642 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020 A warm front is moving north through Arkansas at this time.
802 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020 Scattered thunderstorms are possible tonight, as a warm front shifts across the area. A cold front approaching the area Friday night, will bring scattered thunderstorms. Not much in the way of cloud cover early this evening, but a steady increase is expected late evening and overnight as the warm front lifts northeast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to overspread the area from the southwest tonight, as convergence on the nose of a 30-35 kt 925-850 mb jet impinges on a warm front lifting northeast. Southwest winds will gust near 25 mph during the afternoon, helping push highs into the lower 90s.
The heat will slowly subside over the next few days as high pressure weakens over the area.
A little warmer on Friday under a weakening upper level ridge. Much colder conditions expected for the weekend as a Pacific low pressure system moves over the forecast area.
612 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020 A warm front is moving northeast across Missouri into Illinois this afternoon. Carney The short wave trough currently over eastern Colorado will phase with a second trof over the Midwest on Friday. This combined wave will push a cold front southeast through Iowa Friday afternoon and into Missouri and Illinois Friday night.
Past late evening, light south/southeast flow will continue around the Atlantic ridge with dry and warm conditions expected. Lows will drop into the lower to mid 70s and warmer at the beaches. S/SE winds around the Atlantic ridge from 5-10 knots.
937 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020 High pressure along with warmer and drier air will build over the area Friday and remain over the area through the weekend. High pressure aloft builds over The Midlands and CSRA Friday through this weekend which will lead to drier and warmer weather conditions. High temperatures will warm into the lower to mid 90s with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
318 PM MDT Thu Jun 25 2020 Southwest flow and energy ahead of the positively tilted trough to our west has supported scattered showers and thunderstorms to fire off higher terrain across most ranges in eastern Utah and western Colorado early this afternoon. Additional cells popping up will drift east- northeast through this evening, until diurnal heating ceases and the lower atmosphere stabilizes. Energy to our west pinches off into a closed low overnight and will slide south across the Great Basin. Areas along the Wyoming border will experience some cooling, however, the remaining two-thirds of the CWA will remain trapped under a warmer air mass. The trough's progression will bring a subtle drop in temperatures for Friday, though again highs will remain above normal for most of the area.
Thunderstorms are firing across the Dakotas this afternoon as a short wave ripples around a building ridge over the Plains. Ridging will build in over the region this weekend and stick around through the period, allowing for warm and muggy conditions with slight chances for showers and storms each day.
Morning cloudiness at the coast will give way to mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures in the afternoons. High pressure expanding over the eastern Pacific with an E-W oriented ridge axis extending over northern CA as yesterday's trough continues to push SE across the desert SW. The recent stretch of hot weather will come to an end this weekend as an unseasonably deep upper level trough develops over the western CONUS and displaces the ridge westward over the Pacific.
(Today and tonight) On the western periphery of mid-upper High centered over Florida, southerly low-level flow and relatively high PWATs extend northward from the Gulf coast into the Arklatex Region. Current thinking is diminishing/remnant convection from the high terrain to our west may drift into northwest Oklahoma during the evening, diminishing overnight.
Pushed lows down into the low 50s using MET guidance.
JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 68 86 68 86 / 40 20 40 30 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 68 86 68 83 / 20 10 40 30 70 Oak Ridge, TN 88 67 86 66 83 / 20 10 40 30 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 65 84 65 81 / 10 10 40 40 70.
327 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020 An upper ridge to the west will weaken as a low over NV slowly swings east today.
331 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020 A breezy and hot day is in store across central Illinois with afternoon highs topping out in the lower 90s.
At the surface, a cold front is oriented from eastern North Dakota through central Nebraska, then westward into northeast Colorado.
A frontal boundary that was near the AL/TN border yesterday, has moved further to the north, as another trough situated from Quebec to the Mid Atlantic moves off shore. With more denser clouds limiting solar insolation, high temperatures today will only rise into the lower 80s, cooler than normal highs of around 90 degrees.
457 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2020 Moisture will increase today as a warm front pivots north through the area.
Issued by National Weather Service Rapid City SD 225 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020 Upper air analysis shows a developing upper low across the Great Basin, with a trough stretching out across southeast WY into northwest Neb and western SD. a trough is exiting the CWA, as high pressure builds in from the northwest. The upper trough will gradually push through the CWA this afternoon and evening. Highs today will be much cooler.
1225 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020 A warm front is moving northeast across Missouri into Illinois this afternoon. Carney The short wave trough currently over eastern Colorado will phase with a second trof over the Midwest on Friday. This combined wave will push a cold front southeast through Iowa Friday afternoon and into Missouri and Illinois Friday night.
A cold front was moving south across the I-80 corridor this evening. Cooler temperatures in the wake of a cold front and with more cloud cover.
ML/UL trough becomes a bit sharper, increasing lapse rate/instability, especially in the afternoon. Activity will lessen Sun night and 12z Mon, both EURO/NAM both more pronounced with building ridge. Upper flow doesnt change to awful much either, as troughing and passing impulses remain the theme.
337 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2020 High pressure will build over the area today and promote warmer temperatures and drier weather than the past few days. The axis of an upper level trough will be east of the region today. Upper ridging will replace the trough favoring warmer daytime temps and drier weather than the past few days. A strong LLJ will develop tonight and keep the low levels mixed, preventing fog development.
309 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2020 Dry and seasonable conditions are expected today under high pressure. Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances return tonight through the weekend with the approach and passage of a cold front.
339 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2020 Drier weather is expected over the next several days as weak high pressure aloft builds over the area.
Storms that form along the boundary will merge with storms coming off the High Plains and grow upscale in one or more complexes.
225 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020 Upper level cyclonic flow we had yesterday morning with the large low pressure system has shifted east of the area with some weak ridging replacing this over the area. For today, models are showing a weak embedded disturbance underneath the ridge axis lifting northeast into eastern OK and AR by midday.
245 AM MDT Fri Jun 26 2020 Current surface analysis shows cold front now south and east of the forecast area, with showers and storms tapering off in most areas. Weak ridging is in place from western Canada into the Pacific NW.
The short term hourly HRRR model shows the surface cold front beginning to influence the westernmost counties between 15 and 18 UTC. The higher probabilities for the highers rainfall rates and amounts is across the northern 1-2 counties, i.
1115 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020 Mostly dry and seasonable conditions will persist under high pressure through Friday afternoon, with additional showers and thunderstorms expected late Friday through the weekend.
Mid level ridging continues to build across the area which will shunt the axis of higher low/mid level moisture north and west of the CWA and PW decrease some as compared to the past few days. Coupled with dewpoints in the lower 70s will mean heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s.
The exception will be NW Wisconsin where storms should fire this afternoon as the cold front crosses. The area will be under a super ridge that will keep warm to hot temperatures around through the week with muggy conditions everpresent.
1123 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020 Scattered thunderstorms are possible tonight, as a warm front shifts across the area. A cold front approaching the area Friday night, will bring scattered thunderstorms. Not much in the way of cloud cover early this evening, but a steady increase is expected late evening and overnight as the warm front lifts northeast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to overspread the area from the southwest tonight, as convergence on the nose of a 30-35 kt 925-850 mb jet impinges on a warm front lifting northeast. Southwest winds will gust near 25 mph during the afternoon, helping push highs into the lower 90s.
Focus remains on storm chances Fri/Fri night as warm front passes during the day and cold front then sweeps in Fri night. Best surge of increasing theta E air and resulting increase in instability starts mid to late morning as the warm front moves SW to NE. Some models continue to hint at a fair amount of capping in the warm sector which could hinder any development in the afternoon/eve hours until the cold front arrives after 3-6Z Sat. A warm front will lift in from the southwest which could spark scattered thunderstorms.
314 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2020 Ridging will continue to build in over the region today. Highs in the afternoon will warm into the upper 80s and some spots even the low 90s. While we are warmer and more humid with PWATS between 1. A weak cold front will begin approaching from the northwest during the weekend, but generally stall as it approaches central IL/IN/OH.
At the surface, a slow moving cold front is situated over the James River valley and to the southwest to Chamberlain area. Farther northwest, an upper trough axis is currently moving central ND and southeast MT and expect that to continue east-southeast through the area today.
Stacked high pressure in place today will make for another hot day with highs in the mid-upper 90s and heat indices in the 100-108F range.
Some of the storms could be severe, particularly towards the north, closer to where the warm front is, with damaging winds being the main threat. The warm front will move south into the forecast area tonight bringing a line of showers and some thunder with it.
Upper ridging will dominate overhead keeping temps in the mid to upper 90s.
530 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2020 Dry and seasonable conditions are expected today under high pressure. Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances return tonight through the weekend with the approach and passage of a cold front. Maintained categorical to likely POPs north of Route 422, where model consensus indicates the best support for storms with a closer proximity to the low level jet and upper support. The trough, and its associated sfc cold front, is expected to approach and cross the Upper Ohio Valley region Saturday and Saturday night, with showers and thunderstorms likely.
316 AM MDT Fri Jun 26 2020 Upper ridge will build over the northern Plains while a trof digs into the Pacific Northwest over the next few days. Lee trof develops into a cold front by Saturday afternoon with weak destabilization expected over central Montana in the afternoon. Although southwest flow aloft will increase with the approaching upper trof to provide shear, low level moisture is lacking.
A frontal boundary that was near the AL/TN border yesterday, has moved further to the north, as another trough situated from Quebec to the Mid Atlantic moves off shore. With more denser clouds limiting solar insolation, high temperatures today will only rise into the lower 80s, cooler than normal highs of around 90 degrees. Soundings forecast CAPE values rising into the 1500-2000 J/kg, along with high temps a tad warmer into the mid 80s could result in in a few stronger storms across the area.