Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
234 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 The remnants of tropical system Hermine will continue to weaken and remain nearly stationary south of New England through Wednesday, as high pressure holds in place over the Canadian maritimes.
An upper trough over the area will help to bring in a couple of disturbances during this period.
Weak warm, moist advection has resulted in isolated showers generally west of I-79, with a ridge axis to the east maintaining dry weather. Diurnally driven instability is progged to increase on Wednesday, though persistent ridging should limit any showers and thunderstorms to isolated in coverage as convective temperatures are reached.
Will likely see a repeat of today Wednesday as the 500mb ridge across the south-central and southeast United States continues to provide subsidence across the CWA in general. Will mention isolated convection offshore the lower TX coast tonight and across the coastal sections of the CWA Wednesday.
343 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2016 High pressure, extending from eastern Canada across our region, will keep things warm and rain-free into Wednesday.
Thus kept rain chances above climo and tried to align the highest pops with the with the higher PW's.
444 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Aviation section updated High pressure will remain across the Ohio Valley through Wednesday.
The conveyor belt of ample upper level moisture from Newton will set up shop over the Panhandles thanks to a trough over the Northern Rockies and a weakening ridge over the Coastal SE US.
To our south/southeast a fairly potent mid level ridge is a contributor to the current weather conditions being fair. Across the northern and western CONUS a broad trough resides, with the southwesterly component running over the forecast area between the trough axis and the aforementioned SE ridge. With the warm front still being well to the north low/mid level turning will not be optimal for storms to be organized.
523 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 High pressure will remain across the region through Wednesday.
138 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Upper level ridge continues its domination.
629 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 High pressure both at the surface and aloft will keep the weather sunny and warm for the remainder of the week.
Confidence is higher for locally heavy rain on Wednesday into Wednesday evening as low pressure moves along the front.
302 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 A blocking ridge aloft over the region. A cold front should pass through this weekend leading to a day or two of seasonable temperatures before another warm-up occurs. This warmer and more humid airmass will drift into the western mountains of our CWA later tonight and Wednesday. Max temps Wednesday will once again be in the low-mid 80s across the mtns. Guidance suggests that upper ridging extending northward from the Gulf of Mexico will keep the weather dry and warm to hot though at least midweek.
300 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 High pressure will build over the region through the rest of the week.
High pressure ridge will sink South across region This Afternoon and remain through Wednesday.
The big ridge continues to control weather across the Great Valley keeping skies mainly clear with a few flat diurnal cu.
The fog and low ceilings should quickly mix out by 14z tomorrow as the low level inversion breaks.
612 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 The remnants of tropical system Hermine will continue to weaken and remain nearly stationary south of New England through Wednesday, as high pressure holds in place over the Canadian maritimes.
Pacific upper ridge will remain over NorCal through the week. delta breeze developing late Wednesday will keep temps in the low 90's southern Sacramento valley Thu-Fri. These reading are 5-10 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year.
335 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 A ridge of high pressure will remain over the region tonight.
Upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific began to nudge eastward today, resulting in a warming trend for central California. As of 2 pm, most locations were reporting temperatures between 5 and 10 degrees warmer compared to 24 hours ago. Continued warming is forecast for Wednesday as 500 mb heights rise in response to the upper high shifting east.
Thermal profile aloft is prog to be a degree or two warmer on Wed as mid level ridging strengthens. This warmer profile.
150 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 A ridge of high pressure will remain over the region into tonight.
130 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Aviation High pressure will move east with southwest winds bringing warm humid air into Lower Michigan.
An upper ridge will continue to strengthen to our east today and this will begin to allow moisture values to decrease slightly across the area. Highs today will top out in the lower to middle 90s across much of the area which is about 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday. The coverage of activity is expected to be a bit lower on Wednesday as subsidence continues with the presence of the upper ridge. Highs will once again be in the lower to middle 90s.
243 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Upper level ridge continues its domination.
Newton will move pretty quickly northward overnight then get picked up and sheared out by an upper level short wave trough moving eastward out of the Great Basin.
Ridging over the region should limit coverage of any showers/storms to very isolated and will keep the area above normal for temperatures. For highs Wednesday, will go with the lower 90s and lows tonight and Wed.
232 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Upper level ridge continues its domination.
305 PM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Yep, it's another hot and dusty afternoon across the Mid-State, as big upper ridge remains firmly in control of our weather.
High pressure north of FL maintains northeast and east winds in the 10 to 15 knot range although speeds may briefly pick up tonight.
Short range models have been trending a bit cooler with highs today, which fits with cloud cover continuing for much of the day. Have highs a few degrees cooler but still in the 60s to low 70s. Southwesterly flow aloft continues with the main upper trough still over the western CONUS.
A noticeably cooler (at least in the morning) and drier airmass is in place today thanks to deep layer high pressure building in over the area.
With dewpoints in the lower 60s and 50s across much of the area, humidity levels are down, allowing the heat to not feel as oppressive as it has been earlier this summer.
Tail end of mid-upper level trough that extended just offshore the eastern seaboard was weakening on water vapor imagery and is forecast to form a weak cut off over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. (modified previous discussion) High pressure will elongate with its ridge axis oriented roughly along 30N latitude into the weekend.
The aforementioned boundary moisture will continue tonight into Wednesday with an upper low forecast to retrograde westward across the region through Wednesday.
258 PM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016 A large upper level height ridge will remain the dominate weather feature for the Midsouth for the next several days.
211 PM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016 The 19z surface analysis indicated that the surface through upper level ridge axis was situated across the Southeast and through the Appalachian states. In the short term, the models are in good agreement in keeping the upper ridge axis across the southeast U.
Confidence remains high in above normal temps as they reach the low 90s, with normal highs for this time of year in the upper 80s. Strong cold front is still expected to sweep through early Fri evening with storms expected along this feature as it pushes southeast. A much drier and cooler airmass will be in place Sat and Sun.
Confidence is low WRT to severe weather potential tonight as shear remains unidirectional and the low level shear is fairly weak.
429 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Cold front extends from Ontario down through MN and NE this morning. this will help with the uplift along the warm front that will continue to generate rain.
Weak warm, moist advection has resulted in isolated showers generally west of I 79, with a ridge axis to the east maintaining dry weather. Diurnally driven instability is progged to increase on Wednesday, though persistent ridging should limit any showers and thunderstorms to isolated in coverage as convective temperatures are reached.
128 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Southerly winds on the backside of high pressure will continue to support humid conditions through midweek. Gradually increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected by midweek with additional chances of rain and storms into the weekend along with cooler temperatures. Matured warm sector to persist for one more day beneath stoic lower MS/OH Valleys subtropical ridge anchor protruding northeast into the Lower Great Lakes. Convection to maintain into northwest third of CWA late Wed night/early Thu morning as downstream heights continue lowering as broad/shallow mid level troffing emerges across northern conus.
514 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Fair weather is expected to continue through the week with dry high pressure dominating.
The upper level trough over the Great Basin will move east across the region through early Wednesday.
An upper level ridge of high pressure is now firmly entrenched over the region. Temperatures will remain above normal with highs mainly in the lower 90s. The upper level ridge will remain over the region tonight and Wednesday.
215 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Upper level ridge continues its domination.
Water vapor imagery shows an expansive upper trough extending from the vicinity of Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine off the northeast/mid-Atlantic coast to south Florida.
Light southerly winds overnight and the persistence of a blanket of clouds will keep morning lows tomorrow above the freezing mark with readings in the upper 30s. South to southwesterly winds will pick up in speed by tomorrow afternoon with highs warming into the low to mid 60s as skies begin clearing from the west.
Occasional breaks in clouds have occurred, and that process should start to accelerate as the afternoon progresses as both the 925 and 850 mb cold fronts push through the forecast area and isentropic downglide become predominant. /issued 325 AM CST Fri Feb 3 2017/ Extensive long wave trough continues to keep a zonal flow over the area. This is responsible for the very sluggish forward movement of cold fronts in our area.
The low pressure disturbance entering the Oregon Coast will advance across Idaho later tonight and early Saturday morning. In the meantime we are still waiting on south winds to break into the Lower Snake Plain this afternoon. Once done, that should open the door for mixed rain/snow precipitation, including the lower valleys.
High pressure shifts to the east tonight allowing breezy southerly flow to develop that continues into Saturday.
Scattered showers will continue today behind an exiting cold front.
325 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2017 A warm front currently located across southwest Nebraska into northern Kansas, will lift north tonight as a strong southerly low level jet develops. Snow covered areas will be a bit cooler, in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
Medium Skies will remain mostly clear into tonight, before mid and high level clouds arrive later tonight from the west ahead of an approaching trough. The GFS and ECMWF are much drier in the low levels tomorrow than the NAM and Canadian.
So, as compared to MAV MOS guidance, am going several degrees above projected low values for tonight, with lows generally ranging in the low to mid 20s, still seasonably cold for this time of year, in the low to mid 20s. This will be the night for the best potential of apex of sfc ridging influences to be experienced across the mid state region, but it looks to be happening around 04/06Z, not 04/12Z, so I believe this further supports the reasoning of having lows several degrees warmer than MAV MOS guidance. A more pronounced warmer along with increasing chances of rainfall will occur Mon, into Tue, and at least thru the evening hrs on Tue. Another strong high pressure system will build out of the upper midwest as the second half of next work progresses.
Cold front slowly tracks east through the region on Saturday, beginning in south central SD late morning. Gusty south-southwest winds persist ahead of the front and decent mixing will allow temperatures to warm near to just above freezing for much of the region.
1138 AM CST Fri Feb 3 2017 A small potential for flurries this morning, cool this afternoon, then warmer for the weekend, are the highlights of this forecast. Sunshine and light winds should make rather cool temperatures feel a little warmer than the upper 20s or lower 30s highs. Warming really takes hold on Saturday as south then southwest low level flow ahead of low pressure moving east through South Dakota drags warmer airmass into the region.
The 500 mb ridge will pass over the forecast area this morning then southwest flow aloft on the west side of the ridgeline will open the door to increasing clouds and moisture from the west. The higher passes along Interstate 70 should see lesser amounts and minor impacts.
Cooler and drier air moving south over the fa will be the result. Lows tonight below seasonal ranging from around freezing north to around 40 along the coast.
eventually becoming sw toward Sat morning as lee side troffing develops across eastern Colorado.
At the surface, the cold front is now well to the south and east along the coast. High pressure is centered across the Central Plains. Skies will continue to clear during the evening and overnight period as high pressure moves into the area.
1131 AM EST Fri Feb 3 2017 Cooler than average temperatures will continue into the weekend.
For tonight, high pressure will build in from the northwest and should be right over the area by around 09Z. Good radiational cooling will allow temps to drop into the low to mid teens tonight. Winds will shift to southerly tomorrow as the high pressure moves off to the east.
134 PM PST Fri Feb 3 2017 The tail end of a low pressure trough will move out of Southern California tonight, with some light showers.
221 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2017 High pressure providing ample sunshine across the area this afternoon, but fairly chilly. High pressure drifts across the region tonight with increasing high/mid clouds after midnight as warm air advection kicks in. Warm air advection/isentropic lift increases across the area Saturday as low pressure moves toward the region from the Northern Plains. Snow chances continue into Saturday night as the low and cold front make passage through the area. Could be some loss of cloud ice as well for a transition to some light freezing drizzle.
At 1 pm a surface cold front extended from southern SC through central GA, through the FL Panhandle, and into the western Gulf of Mexico. The cold front will continue moving slowly southeastward overnight, but skies will be slow to clear. The clouds and non-zero wind speeds will prevent temperatures from getting too cold, and we are forecasting lows generally in the lower to mid 40s, which is near average.
Winds will veer through the afternoon from NNE to SSE as high pressure continues to build to the east.
/26/ Drier air continues to feed into the region behind a cold front that has moved well south of the area. /26/ Prior discussion below: The slow moving cold front that pushed through the region yesterday has finally cleared the JAN CWA. A drier, cooler cP air mass will continue to filter into the region throughout the day. Radiational cooling will help lows fall below freezing in the areas north and along I-20 and in the mid 30s elsewhere.
1209 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2017 Will be another chilly winter day as latest surface and 850mb analysis continues to show CAA to the east of high pressure getting ready to enter western Missouri. What few clouds there are currently over the CWA will move off to the east as a mid level trough seen in water vapor imagery over the western Great Lakes also moves quickly off to the east.
This drier airmass is also a bit colder as a strong high pressure building over the Ohio Valley will allow for an advective freeze setup overnight with temps dropping into the mid 20s for the north and into the mid to upper 30s central. This high pressure ridge eventually setup into a wedge like situations but its dry for Sat.
A slow-moving cold front is still making its way through Central AL this morning, giving a slight chance of some light rain showers mainly for our southern counties. This will slowly veer the winds from WNW to a more ENE direction as we head into the overnight hours tonight, which will continue to advect cooler air into Central AL. Overnight lows will be below freezing for most locations with the northern counties dropping into the upper 20s.
Winds will be a tad tricky especially at KCRP tomorrow as a coastal trough develops and migrates inland. Cold front has pushed through the offshore waters down into Deep South Texas early this morning. High pressure will continue to build into the region today reinforcing the cooler air mass over South Texas. This reinforcing shot of cooler air has moved into the Victoria Crossroads and extends into the Hill Country at 09Z. Coastal trough will move toward the coast on Saturday. High pressure will continue to build into the marine areas today with northeast winds expected to reach SCA levels this afternoon over the Gulf waters.
This is giving us a good picture of the thick snow cover over the western half of the forecast area, and over the higher elevation east. This high will dominate today's weather, with skies remaining mostly sunny and temperatures staying on the chilly side. One of the highlights will be the brief shot of warmer temperatures moving in on Saturday as mild air surges northward ahead of an approaching cold front. Models still show a cold front moving across the region Saturday afternoon.
137 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2017 128 PM CST Another seasonably cold night is on tap for tonight as high pressure across the plains will shift east across the area tonight. The high will move to the Ohio valley quickly tomorrow, which will allow high clouds to increase later tonight into Saturday. Warm advection/warm frontal feature coupled with modest upper forcing will bring thickening clouds and likely a few flurries along our northern tier of counties. Southerly winds will bring warmer temperatures into the 30s Saturday, but expect breezy conditions in wake of the departing high to our southeast and the low heading toward northern Lake Michigan.
Strong high pressure building over the Ohio Valley will allow for an advective freeze setup overnight with temps dropping into the mid 20s for the north and around 30 for the ATL metro. High bridges east over the Mid Atlantic with a dry wedge scenario in place for Sat.
Cold front has pushed southward well into the northern Gulf. Lowering heights and a backing wind profile in the boundary layer, noted in forecast soundings tonight, signal a more established cold air advective process with overnight lows sinking into the lower to mid 30s interior. A few of the usually colder spots over the interior may see lows close to freezing if winds lower enough.
Ridging will build in today. Ridging will be relatively short- lived. Energy and moisture from approaching Pacific trof will bring increased snow potential to the high terrain aloft.
For this reason have gone a little cooler than guidance in the areas that have been cold the past few nights. Northwest winds do increase after most of the snow has moved through, so could see some wind gusts and drifting snow in the higher elevations west of the Red River Valley later Saturday afternoon.
This low level moisture will mix out from west to east late in the morning giving way to full sun and much warmer temperatures.
Return southerly flow on the heels of Friday's high pressure will bring temperatures up into the mid 40s on Saturday when another fast-moving wave will track through the region.
438 PM EST Fri Feb 03 2017 A cold front will exit our region early this evening.
Templer Previous discussion - Upper low expected to be positioned off the Pacific Northwest through the weekend. Today expected to be generally dry with the pattern shifting with ridge sliding across the state.
1243 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2017 Cooler than average temperatures will continue into the weekend.
/issued 1046 AM CST Fri Feb 3 2017/ Lingering clouds are quickly breaking up across the Mid-South as high pressure continues to build into the area. Highs will be in the lower to mid 40s. but North wind around 10 mph will advect at least slightly cooler air into the region. Skies should clear today as high pressure shifts over the Mississippi River Valley. Highs today will be mainly in the low to middle 40s with lows tonight in the low to middle 20s. A warmer.
Upper level analysis shows a wave crossing the northern plains, and a ridge building over the western CONUS. Weak upper ridging/nearly zonal flow will move over the region today into the weekend. Highs Saturday will be tricky, as cooler air pushes in from the north behind the trough. With weak upper ridging over the region and southwesterly low- level winds redeveloping, milder air will push back into the area.
Return flow quickly sets up overnight which will mark the beginning of a warmer and wetter trend. Isentropic lift on the 295K surface can help point out the beginning of the snow into the northland's Brainerd Lakes area sometime around 6 am, then spread east and northeast as the low moves across central MN in the afternoon and into northwestern WI in the evening. Drier air will wrap into the low fairly quickly in southern areas of the northland, like from Brainerd to Hinckley and Burnett county, turning off the snow.
These cigs should gradually lower to MVFR through the day and into the early evening hours as low level moisture continues to ride up and over a cooler surface air mass.
1051 AM CST Fri Feb 3 2017 Will be another chilly winter day as latest surface and 850mb analysis continues to show CAA to the east of high pressure getting ready to enter western Missouri. What few clouds there are currently over the CWA will move off to the east as a mid level trough seen in water vapor imagery over the western Great Lakes also moves quickly off to the east.
High pressure is building into Middle Tennessee this morning from the northern Plains, putting the mid state under a cold northerly flow as mid-level ceilings continue to stream across the area. The ridge should shift east of the mid state by Saturday afternoon and usher in our next return flow.
144 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2017 A cold front will push just south of the area this afternoon as high pressure ridges in from the north. Much cooler temperatures will follow tonight through Saturday.
Upper air analysis last evening showed zonal flow over Texas with a low amplitude ridge to the west. The upper flow will remain zonal while the low level flow will be easterly through southeasterly through this period. Skies will remain mostly cloudy Saturday, but warm advection will bring warmer temperatures.
As This upper-level disturbance crosses the Central Plains early Saturday, a warm front will lift North across Western Kansas.
916 AM PST Fri Feb 3 2017 The tail end of a low pressure trough will move across Southern California today through tonight, leading to some light rainfall across especially Orange and San Bernardino Counties.
238 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2017 Sprawling ridge of high pressure currently extending from western Canada southeastward to the Gulf Coast will provide clear skies and chilly conditions across central Illinois tonight. As the high shifts to the east and a weak upper-level wave approaches, mid/high clouds will increase from west to east late tonight into Saturday morning. As high pressure moves off to the east, southwest sfc flow will return to the area, bringing the return of warmer temps and an increase in moisture.
1157 AM CST Fri Feb 3 2017 Today will be mostly sunny and dry as a large area of high pressure across the Dakotas moves southeastward and into the mid Mississippi River Valley. Temperatures will be 3 to 5 degrees warmer than yesterday, topping out in the upper teens to lower 20s. Then, temperatures overnight are likely to hold steady or perhaps rise slowly as clouds increase from southwest to northeast ahead of the next low pressure system.