Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1132 AM CST Mon Nov 21 2016 Early this morning satellite imagery shows the region under the influence of a progressive upper level ridge with a notable trough seen swinging onshore across the West Coast.
Multiple cloud lvls possible by Tue mrng with convection possibly developing just after 21/18z time frame, although cold front passage will not occur until Tue night/wed mrng. /issued 1059 AM CST Mon Nov 21 2016/ Few cirrus and a nice southerly breeze rebounding temperatures into the lower 60s already.
At the surface, we were in between the real cool high pressure system to the east and the developing low pressure over the Rockies. It will take some time to overcome the dry air in the lower levels. The thunder chances shift into southwest Iowa as the low level jet veers with time and the deeper moisture shifts east.
As the upper level low begins to lift northeast over the next few hours. expect a warm front near the NE/KS state lines to lift north.
335 PM CST Mon Nov 21 2016 Cirrus to the North and West will continue to overspread the four state area, making for a warmer night along with the moist Southerly winds. The upper low is winding up in the four corners and will roll out across the plains by early midweek. This cold front is 1020mb of E Pacific origin and will be seasonal for the mid to late week time frame and a super Thanksgiving Day.
301 PM CST Mon Nov 21 2016 Tonight through Tuesday night: An upper trough over the southwestern states will advance eastward tonight, moving across the Central/Southern Plains Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Lows will be much warmer than normal. Light rain shower (isolated thunder) chances will be mainly east of I-135 Tuesday, ahead of the cold front as modified Gulf moisture increases. Also expecting rain chances along/north of I-70 in the wrap-around area of the low pressure. Gusty winds will persist Tuesday into Tuesday night with the low pressure moving through.
256 PM CST Mon Nov 21 2016 Another cool and dry day across Middle TN with copious sun and light winds as high pressure rules the roost. More of the same is on tap for tomorrow as some weak upper level ridging moves across the eastern CONUS.
246 PM MST Mon Nov 21 2016 Shower activity will taper off this evening with clearing skies and much cooler temperatures tonight. The upper low is centered over northwest AZ early this afternoon with a vort max tracking across Maricopa and Yavapai Counties. As the low center and the vort max continue to pull away from the forecast area, this activity will trend down. Only a slight chance of lingering showers tonight over the higher terrain. Look for much cooler overnight temps tonight.
317 PM EST Mon Nov 21 2016 High pressure will move across the area tonight providing fair weather. Lows are expected to be in the lower to middle 20s. Considerable cloudiness is expected Tuesday as low pressure approaches from the plains.
Showers associated with an eastward-moving split trough will persist in the Western Magic Valley and along the ID/NV border this morning.
An upper level low pressing east through the Rockies will erode the northern flank of the anticyclone centered over the Ohio and Mississippi River Valley.
154 PM EST Mon Nov 21 2016 High pressure through Tuesday. A weak cold front mid week. Canadian high pressure settles over the area, bringing mostly clear skies this period.
unorganized low pressure was situated over the cntrl high plains with a subtle circulation centered in nern CO. attendant warm front was stretching sewd across KS and into cntrl MO. The good news is we'll be dodging a bullet in regards to any wintry type weather as the column will be too warm to support any type of freezing/frozen pcpn.
Issued by National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 350 PM EST Mon Nov 21 2016 Strong low pressure over southern Quebec is forecast to move slowly northeastward, reaching the Gulf of Saint Lawrence on Tuesday.
Big high pressure system continues to prevail across the Mid- State through the forecast period.
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the period as high pressure remains over the area. There are better chances of lows falling below freezing tonight in counties to the east where the radiational cooling effect will be more profound due to lighter winds and drier conditions. Part of this evolution involves suppressing the dreaded subtropical ridge further south than has been the case lately, opening the door for a more regular passage of non-insignificant upper level disturbances.
Deep layered ridging will maintain cool dry weather across the entire forecast area tonight. Across the remainder of the region temperatures should fall into the lower to mid 40s central interior zones, and upper 40s to around 50 across southwest Florida by early Tuesday morning. On Tuesday pleasant dry weather with ample sunshine will continue as high pressure remains in control.
/issued 838 AM EST Mon Nov 21 2016/ After a chilly start to the morning with temperatures in the 30s and 40s from north to south dry stable conditions associated with high pressure surface and aloft building toward the region will maintain cool dry conditions with ample sunshine across the entire forecast area the rest of today.
Trough moving through from the west will interact with moisture being pumped into eastern Idaho and should bring rain and high elevation snow to the forecast area today.
106 PM EST Mon Nov 21 2016 Cool high pressure will prevail into the middle of the week.
and Tuesday Clouds were eroding over the forecast area early this morning, due to subsidence in the wake of a sheared vorticity max, and weakening lake effect as high pressure edged across western Lake Superior. High temperatures will still be quite cold, ranging from the upper 20s far north to the lower to middle 30s elsewhere. On Tuesday, an upper level trof will approach from the northern plains and WAA/isent lift will increase in association with a 30 to 40 kt low-level jet during the afternoon.
/ISSUED 1035 AM CST Mon Nov 21 2016/ Warmer with low-level moisture slowly returning through this af- ternoon. This system will bring a cold front across the state Tuesday and Tuesday night.
240 PM CST Mon Nov 21 2016 Ridging aloft will prevail from the Great Lakes to the Deep South through tonight. However, low level southerly flow is progged to develop ahead of an approaching low pressure system tonight. The low is progged to begin to fill Wed as the mid level trof goes briefly negatively tilted and begins to open. The new air mass will be of Pacific origin, so no drastic swings in temps are forecast behind it, and lows at night will be above freezing after tonight.
This will keep a drier air flow in the lower levels, and looks to delay the onset of precip somewhat until late tonight/early Tuesday morning across the western CWA.
1105 AM CST Mon Nov 21 2016 An upper level ridge is spreading east across the Plains early this morning and will spread over the region today. Southerly winds will usher warmer conditions into the area from west to east. An upper level trough and front will approach from the west and spread across the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. Showers may linger into the overnight hours with the passage of the trough. Slightly cooler conditions will spread into the area behind this system for the rest of the week with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s expected each day. Area is currently under high pressure. An upper level trough currently located along the CA-AZ border will be making its way into the Central Plains towards the end of the forecast period.
NW flow aloft will prevail over central NC through tonight, between a potent /mature/ upper low situated downstream over New England and an amplified upper level ridge situated upstream over the Great Plains. Expect clear skies with highs ranging from the upper 40s near the VA border to the low/mid 50s near the SC border, based on local 1000-850 mb thickness research. Expect clear skies /dry conditions/ and light/variable winds with temps a few degrees warmer than today (in the 50s) and lows Tuesday night similar to (or perhaps a degree or two warmer than) tonight, in the mid/upper 20s to lower 30s, particularly if sct cirrus is present prior to sunrise.
Still, temperatures should be able to recover into the low to mid 30s as thicker clouds do not arrive until this afternoon. Mid level trough to propagate into the plains tonight. Models do indicate a warmer elevated layer which may limit snow accumulations overnight however increase the threat for a zr/sleet/snow mix. With warmer air aloft farther north could have mixed pcpn from the DVL basin into the central and southern valley region. With temperatures likely to rise into the low possibly mid 30s will see low snow ratios.
However, am going to undercut MOS guidance again as MOS is keying on the high mean RH values rather than any strong forcing. Should have decreasing clouds Monday with warmer temperatures, as flow aloft becomes NW. Fairly weak NE flow in the morning becomes E/SE this evening then weak overnight as ridge builds back in.
High pressure and a very dry air mass continues across the forecast area this afternoon. Tuesday with light winds and dry air mass highs will be about 5 degrees warmer.
/issued 345 AM CST Mon Nov 21 2016/ (Today and Tonight) Currently, an upper level ridge is over Texas, and an upper level trough is entering the California coast. The upper level ridge will weaken and shift east into the lower Mississippi Valley today, while the upper trough moves east across the Great Basin and Desert Southwest. Temperatures will be warmer today with highs expected to be in the mid 70s across much of our area. The aforementioned upper trough will move east across the central and southern Rockies tonight, with the lead portion of the trough lifting northeast into the central High Plains by early Tuesday morning. But given the forecast track of the upper trough and associated lift, along with limited moisture return into our area, decided to hold off with any mentionable PoPs for now.
300 PM EST Mon Nov 21 2016 High pressure will build in from the west through mid week. A cold front with limited moisture will move through the area on Thanksgiving day.
While the low-level southeasterly winds will keep the lower levels of the atmosphere dry on Tuesday, higher level cloudiness, associated with the developing Plains low, will overspread the area tonight into Tuesday, resulting in mostly cloudy conditions on Tuesday. KJB 235 PM CST Showers are expected to overspread the area Tuesday evening in the strengthening WAA regime in advance of progressive trough moving across the region.
Remainder of tonight into early on Monday will then turn quiet as weak ridging takes hold of the Central High Plains in advance of an upper trough digging into the Intermountain West. As this wave approaches the Central Plains, the lee trough will deepen enough to generate some convection by late afternoon to evening generally west of highway 283, although deep layer shear will be marginal enough to preclude widespread severe over southwest KS.
141 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 A weak cold front will move through the region overnight, providing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will move in on Monday, with drier conditions expected through the middle of the week.
/issued 420 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016/ The latest model guidance and recent water vapor imagery indicate a broad and elongated upper level trough extending across the southeastern states and into the Florida peninsula including the adjacent Gulf and Atlantic waters. the latest global model guidance suggests that the upper level trough could drift a bit eastward tonight with a weak low level trough reflection across the local Atlantic waters. latest guidance indicates the upper level trough persisting across the region and deeper moisture persisting across South Florida.
The upper trough drops into the Northern Rockies and the Montana plains today sending a cold front ahead. The trough closes off as it reaches Northeast Montana this evening. Cooler temperatures will move in with it with highs in the 50s and 60s. Majority of the rain should fall after midnight and Tuesday morning when a low wraps up with a trowal on the back side of the low when begins to stack up and positions itself over North Dakota.
The weak upper low was drifting into western Arizona this morning.
432 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 An upper level trough will push across the region tonight and Monday. A ridge of high pressure will build east into Pennsylvania for midweek. A slow moving cold front will likely push into the region from the Great Lakes by late in the week. Further to the west, a weak cold front is pushing into nw Pa. although isold to sct coverage shra/tsra still expected during the aftn/early evening with passage of weak cold front.
Upper level ridging will move slowly east across western Washington today and Tuesday bringing sunny skies and a short warming trend.
By Monday night the low will be tracking further off to the northeast, and expect best rain chances to push northeast along with the the low.
347 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 a weak boundary will give scattered thunderstorms to the ridges this afternoon, otherwise dry and warm under high pressure into the middle of the week. Chance pops across the ridges for showers and thunderstorms were maintained for the afternoon. Clear with near seasonal temperatures tonight under high pressure.
Trough extending into the Pac NW from Canada has started to bring a little more moist SW flow. As this trough pushes eastward this afternoon. the trough now associated with an upper level trough could bring two distinct areas of precipitation tonight. Models are still in fairly decent agreement with the closed upper low moving over northeast Montana late Monday morning through the afternoon and focusing the best chance for precipitation over central. The upper low continues to exit to the east Monday night but wrap- around circulation will keep showers active across the eastern half of the county warning area. Tuesday will see lingering showers in the east but drying conditions across the west as high pressure begins to build in. can not be ruled out at the higher mountain peaks.
A very slow moving upper low will be over southestern Arizona today and tonight. We are carrying 30- 50 PoPs for this scenario tonight, with the highest rain chances across the western part of our area.
337 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016 08z/3am surface analysis shows a weak bubble of high pressure over central Illinois, while a stationary frontal boundary remains poised just to the west from southern Iowa into eastern Missouri. Forecast still showery with thunderstorm activity off and on through the middle of the week until another upper low digs in over the Plains and drags a front through the region. A few degrees cooler behind the boundary, but not by much and not for long. Main concern with the forecast surrounds the progression of the low with the performance of the models lately with timing.
The storm activity will then shift to the west and northwest ahead of an approaching upper level short wave trough. Expect the lift to increase during the evening, mainly over the northwest and north central part of the area into the overnight hours before weakening as the short wave trough begins to fill. Thunderstorm activity Monday evening, some severe, will slowly wind down Monday night as the longwave of low pressure pulls slightly eastward overnight. Another round of thunderstorm activity will be possible on Tuesday along and ahead of a cold front.
High pressure will prevail at the surface with low relative humidity expected. 925 mb temps and the low humidity suggest high temps will reach the lower 80s today with cooling near Lake MI via the lake breeze. A weak surface warm front will extend sewd from the low across southern WI. Went with 20-40 PoPs with the highest chances north of Madison.
Warmer weather can be expected through the week as a ridge of high pressure builds into our region. The Fort Ord profiler is still around 1,500 feet, although that value should be on the decrease today as a ridge of high pressure builds into our region. Synoptically the ridge will be the main driving force for the weather this week. Longer range outlook is interesting as the models bring an upper low near (or potentially across) our CWA over the weekend. Longer range automated 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks indicate wetter than normal conditions along with warmer than normal temperatures.
400 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 High pressure will build across the area today through Tuesday.
Showers have lingered overnight as the trough and continues its progression to the east. This low pressure system is still forecast to bring precipitation to locations along the Divide and particularly to Glacier National Park. High pressure will begin to build into north central Idaho and western Montana on Tuesday which will be the start of a warming and drying trend.
While the high-res guidance does not indicate much in the way of activity this afternoon, instability will be sufficient with 2000-3000 MUCAPE and modest shear (20-30kts) so that with enough heating, storms could again fire through the afternoon and evening. Highs expected in the low to mid 80s. The main show does look to be later this evening and overnight along the cold front as it moves across the area.
252 AM MDT MON MAY 30 2016 08z surface analysis had low pressure over north central WY with cool front into southern SK and into southern ID. Water vapour showed upper trough over BC / AB moving east. Today and this evening, upper trough strengthens per 90kt jet streak on back side, which spins up an upper low moving into eastern MT this evening. Late tonight, subsidence and drying push most precipitation out of the CWA although leftover showers with some lightning are not out of the question as main bubble of vorticity wraps around upper low. An upper level ridge will build over the western CONUS behind the low, and the cool airmass will move out of the region.
Some of the high resolution models have been trying to develop isolated storms across the eastern CWA overnight.
The Northland finds itself in the wake of a passing area of low pressure, which will continue lifting through Ontario. The cloud cover will continue to clear tonight as a ridge of high pressure moves in from the west. Light westerly flow will become southerly in the afternoon as low pressure develops in the Great Plains. Leaned on the warmer model guidance given the sunshine and relatively dry humidity, such as the bias- corrected Canadian regional and SREF models. Northeast winds will increase over lake Superior Monday night through Tuesday as an area of low pressure center approaches from the Dakotas. The gusty onshore flow will keeping temperatures much cooler near Lake Superior. The low will spread showers and thunderstorms over northern Minnesota Monday night/Tuesday as it lifts a warm front into the region.
Dewpoints in the low to mid 60s will produce CAPE values in excess of 4000 J/kg and combined with 0-6km shear of 35-50kts will ensure some storms will be severe.
354 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016 The Northland will reside underneath weak high pressure ridging today, which will lead to sunny skies (at least this morning), and much warmer temps than the past several days. An easterly surge of cooler air off Lake Superior appears rather likely with this system, and Tuesday could end up being another rather cold, rainy and foggy day for many places in the Twin Ports vicinity and points north and northeast.
Nonetheless, satellite data would suggest at least an increase in mid level moisture so the higher PoPs in the forecast for today seem reasonable. For tonight, cold front will push south across the plains late this evening. Upper level trough dropping in from the northwest and moist post-frontal anticyclonic upslope flow on the plains promises a cooler. Farther out on the plains the low cloud cover will not as thick nor as extensive and the chance of precip not as great. High country areas generally west of the Continental Divide should see less cloud cover and warmer temperatures on Tuesday.
A low pressure system moving east of the area today will provide for isolated afternoon thunderstorms near the Sierra Crest.
1151 PM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016 Updated evening forecast to account for ongoing clearing in the high country and out across the plains. should have better pcpn/tstm coverage in the mountains ahead of a trough axis that stretches fm western Wyoming into western AZ. Models have weak southwesterly flow aloft Monday night into mid day Tuesday before an upper trough pushes across the CWA.
Otherwise, a significant warming trend is on track this week with high temperatures reaching 80 degrees in the Sierra and into the 90s across the lower valleys. Very few changes were made as confidence remains high in a strong ridge building into the region by midweek.
The 18z nam /and to a lesser extent the 18z gfs/ showcased as much as 750-1000j/kg of elevated CAPE tonight on the nose of the low level jet /forcing for ascent/, as the LLJ gradually works northward across the cwa. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 50s.
This afternoon the trough axis will continue to rotate southward across NE Florida and combined with sea breezes will fuel additional showers and thunderstorm development across coastal areas and the St. High temperatures will warm into the lower 90s inland to the mid/upper 80s coast.
On Monday we will see the sea breezes develop by midday once again as the low level flow will remain rather light and should still be enough moisture to see more scattered storms develop.
1157 PM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016 Split troughy pattern over the Rockies will progress eastward over the next couple of days. The southern closed low trekking across SoCal today will allow for some added instability late Monday afternoon and through the night with pieces of energy pushing in to the northern Four Corners ahead of the unstable air mass.
An upper level ridge will build into the Pacific Northwest today in the wake of a departing weather system, bringing clearing skies and drying weather to southwest Washington and northwest Oregon. The ridge will produce warming temps over the nextcouple of days with light offshore flow pushing inland temps close to 90 on Tuesday.
400 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016 WV imagery shows the upper trough has moved inland to the CA/AZ border over the last 24 hours, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under continued SW flow aloft.
the area remains sandwiched between "Bonnie" and a weak upr ridge extending from the Lower MS Valley to the Ohio Valley.
140 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 A weak cold front will move across the area tonight.
1115 PM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016 20Z sfc analysis shows high pressure over the eastern two-thirds of the dakotas and nebraska with weak low pressure to the east of the Rockies. On Monday, the upper low will dip into eastern Montana as it strengthens. A relatively weak frontal boundary will connect with the low later in the day with notable return flow to the east of the boundary.
400 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016 At 3 AM, a 1016 mb high pressure area was located across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. This is in response to the short wave trough moving slowly out of the Northern and Central Plains.
105 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 High pressure will build in across the Great Lakes providing fair weather through Memorial Day. Temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the lower to middle 80s and lows in the lower to middle 60s. Weak cold front tied to remnant upper trough lifting through the northern Great Lakes beginning to fire isolated/scattered convection near the I-69 corridor as of 18z thanks to nearly 2000 j/kg of uncapped MLCAPE. Drier/less humid air will then filter in post-frontal overnight leaving a comfortable/warm Memorial Day as low level ridging builds in.
Surface wise, our region lies between a western atlantic ridge to the north with another weak area of high pressure in the Northwest Gulf of Mexico.
A very slow moving upper low will be over southwestern Arizona today and tonight. We are carrying 30- 50 PoPs for this scenario tonight, with the highest rain chances across the western part of our area.