Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
400 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2017 Short wave lifting out of the lower Mississippi Valley will be the main driving force today. 20 Models in better agreement at the start of the period with the closed upper low vicinity of the TN valley.
This fog will not be as persistent as in past days as a warm front will lift across the area this morning ushering in stronger southwesterly winds. temperatures will range from the low 60s across the sun to near 50 across the north where stratus and fog may be a bit slower to burn off.
1058 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017 The first in a series of upper level waves associated with an active Pacific pattern and general troughing over the Northwest has moved through. Despite this, little has changed as the area remains in a southerly moist advection regime, maintaining the low clouds. Another wave move will across the area tonight, helping to lift a warm front northward and shifting winds to the southwest. This transition will be gradual, from south to north, but should help scour out the low clouds and fog. Another wave will track south of the area Saturday as deeper troughing develops over the center of the country.
May have to keep trimming the west as the trough moves through with wind becoming more west. This fog should diminish in coverage and intensity from west to east late in the night as the low level flow begins to shift and become westerly.
Transitory upper level ridging will pass over the area tonight, while a large longwave trough is positioned over the east Pacific and western 2/3 of the CONUS. Have gone between the MOS POPs and the lower Superblend POPs, using 70% in the northeast part of the forecast area Saturday night to 80% in the south. On Sunday, a strong upper low crosses into the lower MS valley as it travels along the Gulf Coast before lifting NE into the Appalachians.
An area of low pressure is forecast to move out of the southern Mississippi valley and across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys tonight and tomorrow. Temperatures will remain well above normal this weekend, with highs expected to top out in the mid to upper 60s today, and the lower 60s on Sunday. Overnight lows should be in the lower 50s. On Sunday, a strong upper low crosses into the lower MS valley as it travels along the Gulf Coast before lifting NE into the Appalachians.
More sunshine along with near average temps expected on Sunday as the area comes under the influence of weak upper ridge.
336 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017 Compact but potent upper low at the nose of strong Pacific jet was moving across the desert SW this morning, and will be the primary weather feature in this forecast cycle. Upper level flow will amplify in wake of this system for the latter half of the week with ridge axis along the west coast and deepening eastern trough.
Mild temperatures are in store today as a warm front moves north of the area allowing for southerly low level flow over the area.
This will eventually send a warm front into the region, resulting in mild temperatures this afternoon and shunting rain chances to our north.
This low will eventually develop eastward through the southern plains later Saturday, and will not impact our area. Sided with the warmer side of guidance due to guidance not being warm enough lately.
With temperatures hovering around freezing a mixture of rain, sleet and snow is possible from north central OR to the Kittitas Valley. Some light rain, sleet and freezing rain has mixed in at a few locations. Spotty freezing rain can not be completely ruled out, but will not try to pin point where this precip type may occur as will have to see how surface temps evolve Saturday.
A good number of the short-range models develop a mesoscale surface cyclone over AR this afternoon, resulting in backing low- level flow across the Mid-South. With the cold core of the cyclone overhead, lapse rates will remain steep, maintaining at least a marginal hail threat on Sunday. Cooler temperatures are expected Sunday afternoon, with highs in the ballpark of 60 degrees.
Visibilities will mostly be near a quarter mile, but will be variable as showers move through the region and mix up the lower atmosphere at times. If clouds are slower to clear, it may end up being cooler.
Most of the low stratus has pushed north into central Indiana and Ohio, and locally readings were very mild in the mid to upper 50s. The higher focus for showers/storms will be confined mainly south of the KY/TN border but should spread north into central Kentucky Sunday. With more clouds, cooler temperatures aloft and higher chances for showers on Sunday, highs will stay mainly around the 60 degree mark.
318 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2017 High pressure will move east of the area today. A weak cold front will cross the region tonight.
With temperatures hovering around freezing a mixture of rain, sleet and snow is possible from north central OR to the Kittitas Valley. Upper level trough tonight into Saturday. Some light rain, sleet and freezing rain has mixed in at a few locations. Spotty freezing rain can not be completely ruled out, but will not try to pin point where this precip type may occur as will have to see how surface temps evolve Saturday.
Despite this, atmosphere remains mild, with afternoon temperatures in the lower to mid 50s. Strong cyclone will pass just south of SW KS Saturday night, close enough to spread its deformation precipitation into the southern counties, mainly along and south of U. Impacts are expected to be minimal, and with the very progressive nature of this cyclone, precipitation will be wrapping up quickly by sunrise Sunday. NW winds will average 15-30 mph with higher gusts behind the departing cyclone, but with no cold air advection, temperatures will change little with lower 50s common Sunday afternoon. Very few clouds by Sunday afternoon as dry subsident NW flow takes over, and ridging builds in from the west.
This low will produce strong, gusty winds from the west, mainly during the afternoon hours.
Temperatures will rise through the 40s tonight, with high temperatures on Saturday ranging from the lower to upper 50s. Some temporary improvement is anticipated late this evening into the early overnight hours, but additional areas of dense fog are expected to form overnight as warm front approaches the area. Record highs at South Bend and Ft Wayne are in the low to mid 60s.
The upper level low will be fairly progressive, so this will be a rather light precipitation event for most, on the order of a tenth to perhaps two tenths of an inch through early Sunday morning. Freezing level heights supporting snow (AOB 1200ft AGL) will try to push east toward a Lakin to Hugoton line overnight, but odds are it will remain too warm in the lower troposphere for any snowflakes to reach the surface.
BMickelson Previous short term discussion: A closed low presently sitting off the coast of the Pacific Northwest remains encased in a broad upper trough extending eastward from the western coast of the U. Therefore, while snow showers and flurries will continue at times, precipitation should allow enough evaporative cooling of the column to avoid freezing rain and/or drizzle. However, if precipitation is sufficiently light, evaporative effects may be lower than anticipated and some patchy freezing drizzle may occur.
Low-level moisture advection is rapidly occurring across the forecast area with dew points in the low 60s in many locations and many mid 60s across southern Alabama and Mississippi. Round 2 is still on track mainly after 11 PM tonight through 6 AM Sunday morning as another strong upper-level jet streak rounds the base of the trough. First, with stronger low-level shear there will be the potential for isolated tornadoes areawide, with the highest chance still being in the elevated threat area in the far southeast. A relative minimum in convective coverage is expected in between, but even in these areas a limited threat of hail, damaging winds, and at least a brief tornado will be possible given the low-level shear and instability present for any isolated convection that develops.
331 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017 Main forecast issues in the short term come with a deep upper level low that will form and move east out of the southern Plains later tonight and Sunday. Model consensus seems to be converging on a solution which take this low from the near the Red River Valley of TX/OK east- northeast into the TN River Valley by Sunday afternoon.
946 PM MST Fri Jan 20 2017 Latest upper analysis shows an upper trough currently affecting the northern plains. Lift associated with the upper trough and the N-S oriented baroclinic zone will continue to produce light snow or flurries into this evening over parts of northeastern Wyoming and far western South Dakota.
319 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017 Fog, drizzle, and freezing drizzle continue to be the main challenges for the short term. An upper low with several circulations has been lifting northward across the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi River Valley. Model soundings have dry air aloft for much of the day so will keep precip mention drizzle or freezing drizzle with little QPF. There remains some very light QPF put out by most of the models but with dry layer aloft remaining over most of the area think that it will still be mostly drizzle or freezing drizzle.
As one upper trough moves away from the area another moves this way. This next trough is very strong and will move down along the US/Mex border as it pushes east and reaches the area by midday. After this next trough moves away upper ridge builds in from the west. Have expanded the High Wind Warning across Reeves and Pecos counties and have expanded the Wind Advisory east across the whole CWA.
Winds will return to more southerly by 12-14Z ahead of an incoming trough.
Surface warm front currently draped over southern MI with just enough gradient flow and warm air at the surface to yield visibilities at or above 5 miles to the south. North of the toll road, visibilities were more variable earlier this morning but have since improved with warm front surging north. 925mb temps climb solidly into the lower teens by this afternoon with surface temps already in low 50s across much of the area. Remained on the pessimistic side with cloud forecast but did trend toward a much less cloudy/warmer forecast, especially in our SE.
we should transition into more of a scattered light rain and/or drizzle scenario with strong isentropic lift continuing to go along with the low ceilings.
The situation is somewhat precarious in that a weak eastward-moving cold front is approaching South-Central KS. This Evening: Scattered showers & even a couple isolated thunderstorms developed along a weak eastward-moving cold front that is venturing across Southwest KS. Messy surface pattern with broad area of low pressure across the central Plains with a weak low center over sw KS with another over far eastern KS.
Temperatures rose quickly into the low-mid 60s with good mixing and gusty south winds where it has cleared. A trailing cold front will move through the cwfa. Thu-Fri: Medium range guidance has been fairly consistent with a pattern change with a western CONUS ridge and a downstream longwave trough over the east.
Deep layer ridging over the area remains firmly in control. Cooler overnight inland temperatures will strengthen the north to south gradient create somewhat breezy conditions along beaches late tonight. Clear skies and a dry airmass will allow temperatures to quickly rebound into the low to mid 80s tomorrow.
Latest water vapor imagery and surface map shows broad ridging across the northern high plains with strong low level warm advection continuing. A cold front currently in far southern Saskatchewan, bowing into north central Montana will continue to advance southeast tonight.
High pressure will be the dominant force across the region through the early portion of the week. Clear skies will continue overnight as a ridge of high pressure across Indiana moves slowly to the east. current forecast is on track with lows in the lower to middle 40s.
/Issued 307 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2016/ Nice quiet fall like weather pattern will persist through the short term as high pressure remains parked over the eastern third of the country. The cool dry air mass will result in cooler than normal lows tonight and Monday night. 20 Mid level ridge axis will extend up Eastern Seaboard. while at the sfc a ridge will extend down the Appalachians into Ga as high pressure centers over New England.
752 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2016 High pressure building down from Canada will bring cooler temperatures to New York and Pennsylvania through Monday.
Light southerly winds will continue through the night along with ample cloud cover which will keep temps in the low to mid 50s for lows tonight. Highs on Columbus Day will be in the lower 70s.
Very dry high pressure within the low and mid levels will maintain VFR while winds remain light. Strong and dry high pressure over the region will maintain VFR as well as light winds. /issued 401 PM CDT SUN OCT 9 2016/ High pressure to the north has produced northeast winds as temperatures climbed into the low to mid 80s today.
633 PM CDT Sun Oct 9 2016 144 PM CDT No real big weather concerns tonight as high pressure remains overhead. High pressure will begin to shift to the east tonight while low pressure takes shape over the Plains, allowing for a transition towards a south southeast wind direction.
Strong and dry high pressure over the region will maintain VFR as well as light winds. /issued 401 PM CDT SUN OCT 9 2016/ High pressure to the north has produced northeast winds as temperatures climbed into the low to mid 80s today.
Lows are expected to range from the mid to upper 40s across the east and southeast parts of our area, to the lower 50s elsewhere. With mostly sunny skies Monday and a slight increase in 850mb temperatures, warmer temperatures are in store for our area. 19 (Monday night through next Sunday) By Monday night, the upper level low currently moving through the Four Corners region will be opening up and moving east into the plains toward the Mississippi Valley. Behind that, we will see zonal flow across west central Texas with subtropical ridging just south of our area.
Strong ridging aloft centered across SE LA and an upper level trough across the Intermountain West is resulting in southwest flow aloft across the Southern Plains.
Similarly hot in the mountains and deserts Monday, but increasing onshore flow will bring cooler conditions west of the mountains.
High pressure over the region with light northerly winds becoming light and variable after 02-04z. Clear skies and a decoupled wind field will allow many inland locales to fall into the lower to middle 50s just before sunrise. Once this southern Plains transitory upper ridge moves east over the southeastern U.
For the remainder of this afternoon into tonight, stream of mid- to upper-level clouds will continue across the area but should be dry until the high meanders further eastward.
The region should see a drop in dew points as mean RH levels lower due to the drier northeast flow and subsidence provided by broad mid level high pressure extending from NW Mexico to the Northeast Gulf. Lower dewpoints, clearing skies and light northeast- north winds the next two nights will allow for relative cooler nights with lows dropping to near 60 across the northern and western Ranch lands and mid to upper 60s across the RGV.
Broad sub-tropical ridge to the south combined with strong surface continental high pressure dominating eastern third of the CONUS will result in VFR conditions entire period. A few cirrus clouds on the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge will have no impact to aviation concerns.
Still even there, dew points in the low-mid 60s will make it feel much less humid than the muggy conditions we've experienced for many months. Readings will range from the lower 70s along the immediate coast (beachside), to the lower 60s far interior (Lake county).
1050 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2016 Post-tropical cyclone Matthew passes well south and east of the region tonight as high pressure builds east from the Great Lakes.
near the upper low center as it moves across. The HRRR develops the most intense activity near the low center over the far southeast plains between about 4 and 8 PM. Westerly flow aloft will bring a warmer and drier day to most of the area Monday.
Clear skies and dry conditions will lead to much cooler temperatures for the morning hours. Lows will be in the lower 50s across interior southeast Georgia and the Suwanee valley in northeast Florida, and a couple upper 40s are not out of the forecast. High pressure will continue to build across the eastern sea board, and northeasterly flow will become increase, with breezy conditions by the afternoon for the coastal areas.
With a shallow, strong inversion and onshore gradients in place, expect this low cloud/fog layer to move inland across portions of the Central Coast overnight. Increasing mid and high level moisture across the area on Monday afternoon and evening will interact with a weak upper level trough and associated vort max to bring a slight chance of showers to the mountains on Monday afternoon and evening.
Rain will end from the northwest this tonight as an upper trough moves off to the southeast.
Dry air will continue to filter into the region this evening as high pressure noses in overhead. The center of the high pressure resides to the north and east of the region allowing the northeast winds to continue, but the pressure gradient will be weakening as the high pressure moves farther away. With the dry air in place temperatures should quickly drop off tonight with a majority of the region falling into the low to mid-50s.
/Issued 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 9 2016/ Upper level trough over southwestern Colorado continues to progress around the periphery of the upper ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. Deep layer shear remains on the lower end (~20kt) so should any storms develop they may be more pulse in nature as opposed to organized.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will build over the region through Monday night.
With high pressure over The Great Lakes, a dry airmass is in place. The combination of light northerly winds and clear skies overnight will allow temps to drop into the lower 50s for most locations. Coastal locations will be a bit warmer with lows in the mid to upper 50s.
Substantial warm advection on Monday ahead of upper trough moving through central Canada and the Northern Plains will allow temperatures to warm well above normal. The broad trough moves into the upper Great Lakes on Wed. Best chance for rain appears Wed as the cold front moves through and have categorical pops in for Wed as cold front moves through. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a deep 500 mb trough over the upper Great Lakes 12z Thu with 850 mb temperatures across Lake Superior ranging from -3C to -7C. A broad trough digs into the western U. on Sat which builds up a ridge in the Ern U. SW winds will increase to 30 kts later Mon and Mon night ahead of another low pressure system then shift to the northwest to 20-30 kts behind the system on Wed/Thu.
909 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2016 High pressure continues to build across the forecast area this evening. Temperatures are already in the lower 50s northeast to mid 60s southern valley at 900 pm.
Meanwhile, a large area of high pressure resides just offshore of the southern Baja Peninsula, with westerly flow aloft over the Desert Southwest.
An upper level ridge currently situated to our west over the ArkLaTex region will move overhead on Monday. Upper level heights increase slightly as the ridge builds and should result in a degree or two of warming in temps for Monday.
759 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016 A much cooler and drier airmass will advect into the region through Monday as Post Tropical Cyclone Matthew tracks further offshore the Carolina coast. Dry high pressure will build over the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas by mid-week. Residual flooding from Hurricane Matthew persists across portions With Post-Tropical Cyclone Matthew pulling farther and farther away from the NC coast, pressure gradient will continue to relax as Canadian high pressure builds east into the region. Expect lows similar to albeit slightly cooler than tonight, in the lower to mid 40s, coolest in rural and low-lying areas.
951 PM CDT SUN OCT 9 2016 Lift will increase overnight into early Monday as a trough/low moves from southern Colorado into the Central Plains. TSRA will be included at KGAG/KWWR as upper trough approaches.
Tonight Through Monday Increasing west southwest flow aloft ahead of a Pacific low pressure trough will bring dry. warmer and windier weather to northern and central Wyoming tonight and Monday. Monday Night Through Sunday The Pacific trough which will track along the northern U.
/ISSUED 306 PM CDT SUN OCT 9 2016/ We have had another quiet weather day across North and Central Texas today with an upper level ridge to our south dominating the weather across the region.
1018 PM EDT Sun Oct 9 2016 Large expanse of high pressure and dry air encompasses the Great Lakes and much of the eastern CONUS. Pattern synopsis and forecast: High pressure was centered in Ontario, with the ridge axis stretching south through Michigan. The air mass continues to dry while mid level ridging is increasing aloft. Skies were clearing elsewhere, with cool temperatures area-wide in the lower 50s. The closest precipitation was well west, in Alberta and Saskatchewan, associated with low pressure. Lows will span a large range, with coastal areas mainly in the middle 30s to around 40F, while the low lying areas, especially across NE lower in the upper half of the 20s and lower 30s. The air mass remains dry through Monday, with a warm front blasting through the nrn Great Lakes.
Winds should begin to subside this evening gradually as the lower atmosphere stabilizes, even as 925 mb winds continue to ramp up to around 40 kts by mid-evening.
1029 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016 Currently - A large high pressure system over the eastern United States is spreading southwards across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida. Short Term Update - High pressure over the eastern united states will continue to bolster the local pressure gradient through the overnight period. Nearshore water temperatures in the mid to upper 80s should contribute to quite a bit of mixing as the drier and marginally cooler air rushes across the Florida Keys. A large high pressure system over the eastern United States will continue to spread southwards across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida.
Temperatures look good overnight with some of the outlying areas dropping into the low to mid 40's in the valleys and low lying spots. High pressure and upper level ridging will continue to build in tonight and be right over the lower Ohio Valley tomorrow.
Upper flow becoming quite progressive over the lower 48 this forecast period making for a challenging forecast with respect to timing of precip, which appears possible just about every couple of days in the extended.
/issued 433 PM CDT Sun Oct 9 2016/ High pressure on the surface and aloft dominating the weather pattern, resulting in dry conditions and cooler temperatures, over the Four State Region.
A mild and somewhat moist westerly flow aloft will develop over the region ahead of an upper level trough over the eastern Pacific late in the week.
515 PM MDT Sun Oct 9 2016 Upper flow over the northern CONUS is nearly zonal, with an upper trough off the Pac NW coast. Low-level trough is crossing the region with a warm front. Flow will become more southwesterly tonight, as trough comes onshore. Late in the afternoon, a strong cold front will begin crossing the area. Lows will range from the lower 30s across northwestern SD and parts of northeastern WY, to the lower 40s across south central SD.