Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
639 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 A weak cold front moving through the area will cause isolated showers south of Route 24 early this evening.
In addition, a weak cold front is moving across the northeast portions of the state and this will clip the eastern half of our forecast area this afternoon into early this evening. The lower atmosphere remains dry so we are not expecting any shower activity from these clouds nor the cold front. Upper level ridging and warmer temperatures aloft will begin to build over the forecast area late this afternoon into tonight resulting in a dry night along with overnight lows warmer than this morning.
Currently, air temperatures in most Keys island communities are in the lower 80s, with dewpoint temperatures in the mid 60s.
614 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 Showers and thunderstorms can be expected this evening with a crossing cold front.
A very well-defined and mature low pressure system is moving northeastward just off of Cape Mendocino this afternoon. This low is not particularly deep with central pressures likely around 1000 mb - in fact, it passed almost right over a ship this morning which reported 999 mb. Furthermore, models show the low slowly filling as it moves north along the coast.
On Monday afternoon a backdoor cold front is proggd to drop in shifting the winds to the N, but NE in the eastern CWA. While Bufkit shows inverted-V soundings in the morning with deep mixing, the soundings show the influence of the cooler push in the afternoon with potential for some lower stratus riding in behind this front. MOS not latching onto the lower cloud potential as yet and given degree of dry air in place will not get overly pessimistic on sky cover just yet. Mesoscale models are showing a few showers along the cold front around 5-9 am, mainly in the northern forecast area where pops were limited to.
Overnight lows will be cooler with readings dropping into the mid 30s to mid 40s.
The focus will be near and east of a weak cold front sagging southeast over the northwest forecast area. An upper level trough will move into the Northern and Central Plains Monday afternoon.
A dryline located from southeast New Mexico to the Big Bend could provide a surface focus for convective initiation and have kept PoPs today along and east of this feature though the highest PoPs are in the Big Bend and lower Trans Pecos where the Davis Mountains will enhance lift. Monday will see fewer storms as an upper level ridge begins nosing over into West Texas providing a stronger cap. While suppressing convection the ridge will also cause temperatures to rise above normal with many areas reaching the 90s for highs this week.
Low pressure will move across Oregon tonight for a chance of rain. An upper level trough of low pres approaches the coast Wed night, and moves inland Thu returning showers to the region Thu. Fri looks like a dry and mild day as a ridge of high pres moves in.
Overall expect low coverage and a trend toward drier weather today and tonight for much of northeast Montana as an upper level ridge develops and builds into the Northern High Plains.
The RAP mass fields support a more solution to the high sliding in across northern Missouri, and this fits my conceptual model of how this might evolve better than most other guidance. but am leaning once again toward the warmer MAV guidance.
112 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017 A cold front continues to push through southern ND this afternoon. Some light snow was reported across northcentral North Dakota where temperatures were in the low 30s. Much colder temperatures will filter in overnight as high pressure settles over the area. Temperatures will likely fall into the low to mid 20s across most of the area.
Current thinking is that the strongest development won't move into the Lower Valley overnight, however.
Temperatures much warmer than yesterday with upper 50s west of the Laramie Range and mid 60s out in the Panhandle at 1PM this afternoon. Surface analysis showing an area of low pressure just north of Cheyenne. Water vapor showing a fairly potent low pressure area just off the coast of northern California. low level moisture pooling into the Panhandle with the NAM showing TDs increasing into the low 50s by Monday morning.
The main story for tonight and Monday will be a back door cold front that will drop southward into north-central and northeast Wisconsin. This front will make for a challenging high temperature forecast on Monday as the far north could remain in the lower to middle 40s while portions of central Wisconsin could warm to around 60. The chances of showers continue overnight as the cold front pushes southward.
337 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017 Main area of focus will be around the stalled out cold front located in southeastern Kansas. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s.
Across the PB storms will dissipate by mid evening, but are more likely to persist across the Lower Trans Pecos as they track e-se late into the evening. Meanwhile, high temps will increase much moreso then as thermal ridge expands, highs in the 90s will be widespread. A cold front may just make it into nrn CWFA Thur PM, but still unseasonably warm for most all areas.
105 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017 Updated temps a bit for the rest of the day as the cold front (more of a NW wind vs WSW wind) is moving into NW/WC MN south of the low pressure to the northwest of Winnipeg. Colder air oozing in and for some the high temps have already been reached. Model soundings indicate an adiabatic profile in the lower layers today. Another upper level low pressure system was located over southern SASK with two short waves embedded. Another upper level low pressure system was located off the CA coast. Remainder of week to be dry as ridging amplifies over the Rockies. Main activity late in week will be over cntrl US as upper low in southern stream moves across the midwest.
222 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 High pressure will remain well off the southeast coast through this afternoon.
Today Through Monday Night As the upper ridge centered over the southeast U. Weak ridging will develop in the Plains on Monday. Also, an upper trough will move into the northwest U. A cold front across Kansas and Missouri will slowly move southeast and should be near the Arkansas and Missouri border Monday afternoon. Expect high temperatures today in the lower 70s to lower 80s and highs Monday in the mid 70s to mid 80s.
Models bring a decent cold front across sometime in the afternoon. Friday's temperatures will be fairly warm until the cold front moves across. The fast moving upper level trough will be passing over the state tomorrow evening. A 150 knot jet will accompany the upper trough, helping to drive the system. The next several days will feature flat ridging over the inter- mountain west, with dry and mild weather over north central and northeast Colorado. Temperatures will be about 10 to 15 degrees warmer than normal, all the way through Thanksgiving Day.
We'll see fairly rapid column saturation this afternoon due to steady warm advection and isentropic lift ahead of the approaching trough of low pressure. Forecast confidence is high: Strengthening low pressure is expected to move through central or northern IL tonight, heading northeast into Ontario Saturday. Decent moisture surge with this low, as precipitable water values will be around an inch this evening. Gusty winds are expected on the back side of the low Saturday.
359 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 Weak cold front well offshore. High pressure builds back into the area tonight, despite a secondary cold front dropping south into the region. High pressure will control the region through Saturday when the next cold front will approach from the northwest.
An upper trough moving ashore from the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies will result in the development of a lee trough across the area tomorrow, along with increasing westerly to southwesterly winds. Given the downsloping winds and favorable location of an 850mb thermal ridge across the region, near record and record highs in the 80s and lower 90s are expected areawide. A big change will arrive on Saturday as a strong cold front moves through the region, associated with the aforementioned upper trough which will deepen as it moves eastward across the Northern Plains. By Saturday evening, winds will diminish as high pressure settles into the region behind the front.
1014 PM MST Thu Nov 16 2017 Latest SFC analysis shows a warm front extending from a low pressure center in central Montana to just north of the Black Hills and then arcing to the northeast toward Faith. High temperatures have reached the lower 70s on the plains of southwestern South Dakota. Tonight, the upper ridge will continue to shift off to the east of the forecast area as the upper trough drops southeastward toward the northern plains. On Friday, the upper trough will continue to move southeastward across the northern Plains as the main cold front crosses the forecast area. A narrow band of moderate to strong 850-700mb frontogenesis is forecast to cross the region rather rapidly behind the cold front.
The cold front associated with this system does not advect cooler air into extreme northwestern Colorado until Friday afternoon, across the I-70 corridor until the evening hours, and southward into the San Juans until late Friday as well. As the cold front progresses northwest to southeast through eastern Utah and western Colorado, the snow level will drop, but very dry air will also entrain into the region. By Saturday morning, dry northerly flow should shut down all precipitation as high pressure moves back into the Great Basin. Cool seasonable temperatures will persist for a couple of days behind the cold front, especially with weak inversions developing overnight.
High pressure is ridging across the area from the north keeping a dry NE flow across the area. The high center shifts to the SE over the Atlantic tonight and will turn light winds more to the east by morning. The high center then continues to shift east and weaken across the state for Saturday as a cold front moves east of the Mississippi into the deep south. Highs will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s each day, with lows tonight in the lower 50s to lower 60s.
346 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017 Starting out this morning in between a 500mb ridge over the Great Lakes and up through Hudson Bay, with a trough across western Canada through the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, at 09Z, an area of low pressure was set up across Hyde/Hand/Buffalo Counties. This low will continue to sink southeast, tracking across far southeastern SD by 15Z. It will push a cold front across our area this afternoon. The 500mb trough will be directly overhead 09-12Z Saturday, with northwest flow then being the rule for the rest of the forecast period. High temperatures on Saturday will be in the 30s to low 40s, as cooler air filters in on breezy northwest winds of 13-18kts and a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west.
1215 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 Weak cold front well offshore. High pressure builds back into the area tonight, despite a secondary cold front dropping south into the region. High pressure will control the region through Saturday when the next cold front will approach from the northwest.
Yesterday's surface ridging tailing down into the region has shifted to MS/AL as the Pineapple Express atmospheric river dumps copious snow/rain over high terrain in CA thanks in large part to the upper trough swinging through the Pacific Northwest. This upper trough will race east swinging a cold front through SETX Saturday afternoon. As the front reaches the Highway 59 corridor the rain chances will be improving getting out from underneath the capping influence.
Cloud cover along our northern broder should retreat as this ridge progresses east and the flow in that layer turns to a SW direction with warm advection in the afternoon. Cirrus in advance of the jet stream will be over the area today, with highs in the lower to mid 60s expected. Tonight, a strengthening SW flow as low pressure tracks into the Great Lakes region and its resulting positive theta-e advection/isentropic lift should bring increasing cloud cover, but moisture depth and lift will not be adequate for precip yet.
Cold front will slide through Friday afternoon, but precipitation will lag until Friday night with the upper trough. An upper level ridge will build sharply northward over the full extent of the Rockies during the week.
High pressure will move slowly eastward overnight and will settle across the WV area by 12z. Per sfc ridging influences expected to continue shifting eastward, sfc winds will veer from the north to the south thru 18/06Z.
1137 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017 Forecast Highlight: 1: Strong cold front still scheduled to plow through KS late Fri Night & early Sat morning. The trof will move slowly E & should extend from eastern Nebraska to western KS by which time it will have broadened. With the surface trof remaining well to the west of KICT Country, pronounced lower-deck moist advection would commence this evening & continue thru Fri. The slow eastward trek of the trof would likewise push the lower- deck moisture axis east Fri afternoon. Fri Night & Sat: A strong, positively-tilted upper-deck trof that this afternoon is situated just off the WA/OR coast will surge E/SE, reaching from central Canada to the Central/Southern Rockies Fri Night. The wave will kick a strong cold front SE across KS.
357 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a trough of low pressure extending from swrn Canada to off the coast of Washington and Oregon. Downstream of this feature, a trough of low pressure extended from Quebec, south into the Mid Atlantic states. West of the low, a cold front extended into northeastern Wyoming. A cold front will approach the forecast area this morning and is expected to clear the forecast area by mid afternoon. A windy and cooler day is expected Saturday in the wake of the Friday nights cold front.
Some improvement in ceilings is possible by late afternoon into the evening across parts of eastern OK ahead of approaching cold front.
1144 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017 The main weather concerns through Friday afternoon concern strong southerly winds this evening and an approaching cold front tomorrow. This evening, breezy south winds continue as the sfc pressure gradient tightens across the state with the high slowly moving east. H85 flow is rather strong at 30-40 kts ahead of the low/mid level trough approaching the panhandle. Temperature-wise, kept tonight's lows fairly mild in the upper 30s to lower 40s, which is on the high end or slightly above guidance. In addition to the breezy south winds, an H85 thermal ridge crosses the area preceding the trough. The NAM showed the the strongest midlevel frontogenesis and produced the highest rain totals.
1125 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017 Gusty southerly winds have taken hold across the area under weak ridging in the mid and upper levels. With some lingering cloud cover, I would tend to favor the low-end of guidance, but even that is in the 60s for most of the area. Low temperatures on Saturday night will fall into the low to mid 20s.
212 AM MST Fri Nov 17 2017 09z surface analysis had low pressure over eastern SD with initial cold front into east central WY. This initial forcing will continue this morning as cold front exits the CWA to the south. Additional RASN will develop with mainly SN over the higher elevations.
Wind will decrease after sunset local time and remain around 10 knots until a cold front approaches the terminals at or near the end of this TAF cycle.
438 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 The mean layered ridge has drifted east the past 24 hours, and now is centered over Mexico. High pressure has reformed over the Appalachians, driving fresh northeast breezes across the Keys coastal waters. Temperatures are in the lower 70s and dewpoints are in the mid-upper 60s. The mean layer ridge will meander over Mexico today through Saturday.
459 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 Weak cold front well offshore. High pressure builds back into the area tonight, despite a secondary cold front dropping south into the region. High pressure will control the region through Saturday when the next cold front will approach from the northwest.
327 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 Dry weather is expected today with high pressure. Rain can be expected Saturday with crossing low pressure and a cold front.
Late this evening and mainly overnight, a strong cold front will move across much of Oklahoma and north Texas. Although temperatures will be much cooler Saturday, low afternoon humidity and gusty winds will certainly elevate fire weather conditions.
319 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 Dry weather is expected today with high pressure. Rain can be expected Saturday with crossing low pressure and a cold front.
1230 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 Behind a cold front that will cross NC early tonight, high pressure will build into NC from the northwest through Friday, before moving offshore Friday night. A warm southwest flow will overspread the area Saturday, ahead of a cold front that will cross the region Saturday night.
428 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 High pressure will build across the state through Friday. Highs will be a tick or two cooler than today with a diminishing wind as high pressure moves over the area. A warm front-cold front combination will bring a period of rain to the area that will be moving in from the west by sunrise Saturday, progressively spreading eastward across the region during the day.
314 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017 Aloft quasi-zonal flow dominates the central US, with an upper trough impinging on the West Coast. At the surface, high pressure spans from the Great Lakes to the Gulf of Mexico, while low pressure deepens in the plains. By this afternoon, upper flow backs to slightly more southwesterly as upper trough moves into the Rockies. Broad scale lift ahead of this trough will aid saturation of the column and rain chances will increase late this afternoon and into the evening. Strong cold air advection will be underway Saturday morning in the wake of a potent surface cyclone. There are still differences in the strength and timing of the cold air among the warmer ECMWF and colder GFS/NAM, so confidence is rather low regarding the potential for accumulating snow.
327 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 A high pressure system will provide gradual clearing today. A strong cold front crosses Saturday night.
We have isentropic upglide ongoing over much of the area this morning, and with the RH and thermal profile we have out there, several locations are getting a wintry mixture of rain, freezing rain/drizzle or snow. This pattern is going to continue this morning until the cold front moves through the afternoon and early this evening. For much of this time range temperatures in the areas with higher precipitation rates will be above freezing, producing rain. If it were just a bit cooler we would be having some real icing problems.
Scattered rain with mixed rain and snow showers are moving across the area as the upper low continues to move inland. The upper low is expected to move over Oregon and Washington tonight with the cold front moving through by morning.
408 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 High pressure builds back into the area through tonight. The front slides offshore Saturday with a cold front approaching the region from the west late.
338 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 High pressure will prevail through Saturday.
155 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 High pressure will build overhead from the northwest today, and then move offshore tonight. A warm southwest flow will overspread the area Saturday, ahead of a cold front that will cross the region Saturday night.
The area of high pressure will slide off to the east tonight and Friday allowing the pressure gradient to tighten across the area. A warmer air mass will advect north into the area tonight and Friday ahead of the approaching system. A cold front will move through the area Friday night into Saturday morning. Highs on Saturday will likely occur during the morning hours as temperatures cool slightly during the day as a cooler air mass slides into the area behind the front.
244 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017 Upper ridge axis stretched from nrn Mexico newd into the Great Lakes region this morning.
255 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 Low pressure over Wyoming today will become better organized and stronger as it slides off the eastern slope of the Rockies and into the central Plains. A deepening upper trof coming in behind the surface reflection will allow the negatively tilted system to continue to strengthen as it crosses the central and eastern United States. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will spread into the rest of the region Saturday morning, and then become much more widespread in the afternoon as the cold front barrels in. The best chance of strong/severe storms will be in a narrow corridor just ahead of the cold front itself Saturday afternoon. With strong WAA will go warmer than guidance for lows tonight.
1053 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017 A stalled frontal boundary and stubborn stratus have led to a much cloudier and cooler day for portions of Minnesota and Iowa today. Temperatures have been struggling to reach the freezing mark in a few locations. Meanwhile, south of the warm front across south central SD and NE, temperatures have soared into the 50s and even 60s. Further west, very little if any diurnal trend is expected tonight, and temperatures may remain near 50 in the higher terrain areas of the Missouri River valley. With 925 mb winds turning southwest, expecting continued high gusts along the Buffalo Ridge areas of Southwest Minnesota. Will maintain low end PoPs, focused higher over the Highway 20 area and again further west and northwest along a lingering 700 mb frontogenesis band.
Atwell Southerly (southwest) flow will increase Saturday ahead of strong cold front approaching the area. At this time, believe that winds will remain below "advisory level" but will have to watch the gusts, mainly in the higher elevations of north GA, approaching 30-35 mph Saturday afternoon/evening. Showers and perhaps a couple of storms will begin to approach northwest Georgia during the afternoon hours, gradually spreading south and east through mid-late evening as the 850/500mb troughs catch up with surface front.
206 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017 Return southerly flow will develop today, as high pressure moves away from the region. Tonight, there should be an uptick on convective chances as a warm front surges northeast quickly in the evening. By 12z Saturday, a strong cold front will be just northwest of our CWFA, ahead of a positive mid level s/wv across the Plains.
After a weak upper level trough moves farther east of our area on Friday, deep layer ridging will briefly build into our area from Friday night through Saturday. On Saturday night, a more potent upper level trough will approach our area, and at the surface a cold front will approach our northwestern areas. High temperatures will be in the lower-mid 70s on Friday, followed by overnight lows ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s inland and mid 50s along the Gulf Coast.
A low to mid level high pressure ridge will dominate the weather pattern with breezy northeasterly flow through Friday night. The winds will weaken somewhat on Saturday as the high pressure moves more directly over the area.
152 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 High pressure will build across the state through Friday. Highs will be a tick or two cooler than today with a diminishing wind as high pressure moves over the area. A warm front-cold front combination will bring a period of rain to the area that will be moving in from the west by sunrise Saturday, progressively spreading eastward across the region during the day.
254 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017 Unseasonably warm/windy conditions expected today ahead of strong cold front that will move into northeast Oklahoma late tonight. As mentioned previously, cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma late tonight in association with vigorous upper wave moving out of the northern Rockies into the Central Plains.
High pressure is going to be over Indiana into Friday, with a strong cold front expected to cross Friday night and Saturday.