Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
434 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SWINGING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MOVEMENT HAS SUPPRESSED UPPER RIDGE THAT WAS OVERHEAD SOUTH. WITH THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH SO FAR NORTH. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY IN TERMS OF TEMPS AND POPS AS TROUGH TO THE NORTH LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA AND SLIGHT RIDGING TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THROUGH CENTRAL KY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY KEEPING CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING TEMPORARY TAKES HOLD. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE IN TOWARDS DAWN. HELPING TO RE-CHARGE A WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE AREA.
CONTINUED ALONG THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTERED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING. QG DESCENT ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH WILL LIMIT CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES AND SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH SO THAT IMPACTS TO THE HIGH PASSES WILL BE MINIMAL. ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS RISING TEMPERATURES DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY.
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ZONAL AND ORIENTED OUT OF THE WEST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE RETROGRADES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND BUILDS SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE NORTH.
/TODAY/ DEEP CYCLONE ADVERTISED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS ITS INFLUENCE CLEARLY DEPICTABLE FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE DMX CWA VIA WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
400 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016 WITH 3 AM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA AND AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS DEL RIO. EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY TODAY AS MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW MOIST AIR /DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S/ ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO UPPER 80S INLAND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO TEXAS.
220 AM PDT TUE MAY 10 2016 A few very isolated showers are possible along the Sierra Crest this afternoon mainly south of Bridgeport.
Thus, the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains and the Red Flag Warning have been allowed to expire.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL THEN LINGER TNT AS THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PASSES. MEDIUM LINGERING INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING INTO THE STATE WILL LIKELY DOMINATE FOR THE MORNING HOURS. SOME EROSION TO THE HIGHER LLVL RH OCCURS DURG THE AFTN AS MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS AND RESULTS IN DOWNSTREAM BROAD CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO IA. WITH ANY BREAKS WE WILL SEE TEMPS PUSH THE WARMER MOS VALUES THOUGH SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EAST COOLER.
MOIST MID-LEVEL THETA-E AIR IS THERE AND THERE COULD BE A WEAKNESS IN THE CAP LATE (RIDGE AXIS IS A BIT TO THE NORTH THOUGH). UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS RELATIVELY BENIGN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW AND TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH. AS MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER.
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN UPPER LOW ALONG THE MT/WY BORDER WITH REMNANTS OF DOWNSTREAM LOW OVER SWRN ND. LOW IS CENTERED OVER FAR ERN MT WITH TROF EXTENDING THROUGH CNTRL SD. MAJORITY OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER MT. UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NEWD THROUGH SERN MT. STRONG LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL MIX TOWARDS THE SFC DURING THE AFTN WITH ADVISORY WINDS LIKELY ACROSS NWRN SD. UPPER LOW DRIFTS INTO NWRN ND WITH WRAP AROUND PCPN EXTENDING SWD INTO NERN WY/NWRN SD. UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS NEWD JOURNEY WITH CDFNT FINALLY SWEEPING THROUGH OUR CWFA.
ONE BETWEEN DRY EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES VERSUS MORE HUMID AIR FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS. THE LOW PRESSURE. WARMER.
NEGATIVE TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF THE DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH MISSOURI INTO ARKANSAS WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI DOWN ALONG MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. /ISSUED 416 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016/ UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS A NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED UPPER LOW AND TROUGH EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
322 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016 A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, WITH LOCATIONS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. A RATHER STABLE AND DRY AIR MASS HAS PREVAILED DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS OVER THE AREA, BUT WINDS VEERING TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY THE LOWER LEVELS WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS, ALONG WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY.
246 AM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016 AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SAG SOUTH TODAY WITH A JET STREAK TO PUSH INTO NORTHWESTERN COLORADO. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE AREA LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. EXCEPT MID 70S OVER SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY AS THEY'LL BE THE LAST TO SEE THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING INTO THE UPPER 30S OVER THE PLAINS AND INTO THE TEENS AND 20S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR PHILIP. AS THE FIRST UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL SD EXITS TONIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. IF THE HIGH TEMP REALIZES ITS POTENTIAL THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO AHEAD OF THE COLD CORE LOW. HIGHS WILL BE A BIT COOLER IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS LOWER TO MID 60S.
331 AM PDT TUE MAY 10 2016 Dry and warmer weather expected for the remainder of the week. Clear skies across interior NorCal early this morning as ridging over the eastern Pacific edges closer. Dry and warmer weather is expected through the remainder of the week.
/ISSUED 236 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016/ LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL AMPLIFIED TROUGH SITUATED FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE GREAT PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS LOCATED BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND A NORTHERN ATLANTIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THANKS TO THE MEAGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THIS FAR SOUTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS AND BECOMES NEAR ZONAL DURING THE EVENING AND THEN WEAK RIDGING BUILDS. THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING TONIGHT. AS THE THROUGH AND COLD FRONT PASS. AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES EAST. STRONG NORTH WINDS ALOFT WILL SEND A CANADIAN COLD FRONT RAPIDLY SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WYOMING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH WITH THE SNOW LEVEL STARTING OUT AROUND 8500 FEET FALLING TO AROUND 7000 FEET DURING THE DAY.
353 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016 CLOSED LOW OVER YELLOWSTONE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A STRONG WAVE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO MISSOURI. RIDGE EXTENDING FROM TENNESSEE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. UPPER LOW PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH AN UPPER JET ROUNDING THE TROUGH AND COMING ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WESTERN SANDHILLS THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY.
700 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
236 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL AMPLIFIED TROUGH SITUATED FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE GREAT PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS LOCATED BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND A NORTHERN ATLANTIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THANKS TO THE MEAGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THIS FAR SOUTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS AND BECOMES NEAR ZONAL DURING THE EVENING AND THEN WEAK RIDGING BUILDS. THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS COULD BE THE FEATURE THAT COULD PRODUCE A TSTMS OR COLORADO IS IN-BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY WITH MAIN ELONGATED UPPER TROF OVER CENTRAL PLAINS AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO SOUTH DAKOTA. THERE IS WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROF AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES INTO WESTERN COLORADO. HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH FAVORED OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND ALSO OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CYS RIDGE. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED FURTHER EAST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY WITH A JET STREAK NOSING INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE WITH FOCUS AREA ALONG PALMER DIVIDE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. QG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION THREAT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO NORTH DAKOTA. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY EXPAND NORTH NOW INTO THIS EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH. STILL EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND HAVE ALREADY SEEN THIS TREND THE PAST FEW HOURS AS LOW LEVEL LIFT BROADENS OUT AND THE CLOSED LOW MORPHS INTO AN OPEN SHORT WAVE. MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN IDAHO MOVES EAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT. WILL MONITOR SEVERE PARAMETERS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE DEPICTING A NARROW BAND OF ELEVATED CAPE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER MY CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST AREAS. WITH THE CAA A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WED MORNING. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT MATERIALIZE IN THE LOWS WAKE AS WELL.
It appears that another warm frontal zone is trying to set up behind the convective activity currently sprawled the WFO PAH forecast area. The ridging aloft will be dampened Late Wednesday night as an approaching cold front and renewed warm front generation place the WFO PAH forecast area in a very unstable warm sector.
CURRENT SITUATION AND ANALYSIS -- A DEEP LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.
DUE TO THE HIGHER CHANCES AND MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IN MPX EASTERN CWA, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 50S. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BECOME SHEARED APART BY THE APPROACHING SYSTEM AND TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD END MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR A TIME TUESDAY EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING LACKING AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE. AS THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES HEIGHT FALLS WILL RESUME LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS WRN MN.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
308 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016 WATER VAPOR/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH WESTERN IA/MO. PV- ADVECTION/LIFT/CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WAS PRODUCING A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE NW-SE BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. THE THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LIFTING THIS TROUGH NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TOTALLY EXITING BY LATER THIS EVENING. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER THREAT MAY BE SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL WITH SLOWER MOVING COLD FRONT PER NAM PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.
OF NOTE ON THE UPPER AIR MAPS WAS THE COMPLEX H5 PATTERN WITH CLOSED LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND A TROUGH SOUTH INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. AND ALSO THE APPROACHING TROUGH OVER IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA. H5 TEMPERATURES WITH THE CLOSED LOW WAS AROUND -17C. HOWEVER THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WAS MUCH COLDER AT -25C. THE LEAD CIRCULATION THAT PRODUCED SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN LOCALLY HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS THE NEXT CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE LOW SHOULD SLOWLY TRACK TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS PROGRESSION WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S COAST TO THE MID/UPPER 80S INLAND. FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE OVER AREA WED WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
622 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016 A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S.
ESPECIALLY AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT.
310 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016 Area catches a break from storms today as system that brought Mondays storms continues to advance into Missouri, leaving weak mid level ridging aloft for the day today. Could still see some patchy morning fog before skies start to clear out and bring highs into the lower 80s this afternoon. Next system out over the Rockies advances a frontal boundary across the high plains today and through the evening hours.
402 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016 A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS TODAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A STRONG SURFACE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS GENERALLY HOLDING IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. UNDER MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE.
UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS WY/MT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO ND BY THIS EVENING WITH TRAILING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROF AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS CO LATER TONIGHT. FAIRLY HEALTHY BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST CO EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOC WITH ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROF. WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODEL SOLUTIONS. A COUPLE INCHES OF WET SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER AREAS. AS THE UPPER LOW OVER N DAKOTA EJECTS TO THE NE INTO CANADA.
312 AM MST TUE MAY 10 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEK FOR A GRADUAL.
AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES NORTH. IT WILL ABSORBED BY A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TODAY. AND IN THE LOW 50S AT BEST IN WESTERN WI WHERE ALL DAY SHOWERS REALLY HOLD TEMPS DOWN. OUR MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE THE STRONG LOW ADVANCING EAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW. EXPECTING AN EXPANDING BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS MOISTURE AXIS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS DAYTIME HEATING INTERACTS WITH ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY AHEAD OF CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH. POCKETS OF SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS EXIST FROM CLOUDS/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS SO HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS TREND NEXT FEW HOURS.
ONE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD INTO ND THIS MORNING AND THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE WITH AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATER TODAY. 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES FROM SE TO NW INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING ON UPSTREAM SIDE OF UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING INTO ONTARIO. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER TODAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT INTO S CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR A STORM OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA AS THE SFC BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO MN. SOME SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BEHIND THE LOW ACROSS PARTS OF NE ND. TEMPS THUR NIGHT MAY FALL TO NEAR FREEZING OR POSSIBLY BELOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
THE TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS HAD MERGED INTO ONE - CENTERED OVER MONTANA/WYOMING. ONE OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WAS ALONG THE CENTRAL BORDER OF ND/SD AND MOVING NORTHWESTWARD. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING/ARCING SOUTHEASTWARD LIFTS NORTHWARD SUPPORTED BY THE DRY SLOT. THE MODELS INDICATE A THINK BAND OF ELEVATED CAPE ALONG THE ARC OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND LIFTING LOW LEVEL TROUGH AT 15 TO 25 MPH. BEHIND THE TROUGH AND COINCIDENT WITH THE DRY SLOT IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INTRUSIONS OF COOLER CANADIAN/CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR INTO THE REGION AND THAT IN TURN FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
159 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016 WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD TODAY BEFORE STALLING ACROSS OHIO AND FAR NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.
112 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016 A WARM FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MEDIUM LINGERING INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING INTO THE STATE WILL LIKELY DOMINATE FOR THE MORNING HOURS. SOME EROSION TO THE HIGHER LLVL RH OCCURS DURG THE AFTN AS MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS AND RESULTS IN DOWNSTREAM BROAD CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO IA. WITH ANY BREAKS WE WILL SEE TEMPS PUSH THE WARMER MOS VALUES THOUGH SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EAST COOLER.
Lighting is occurring in the higher terrains of the Cascades.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LINGERING/WANING UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCT-NUMEROUS SHRA OVER WESTERN SD THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THAT WILL CHANGE AS A STRONG UPPER LOW /NOW OVER THE PAC NW/ ADVECTS EAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE PAC NW UPPER LOW WILL ADVECT NORTH OF THE FA INTO ND TUE. SUFFICIENT CAA/UVM WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TUE NIGHT.
Mid level height falls/increased ascent, abundant warm sector low level moisture/instability will allow strong/severe storms to develop focused along a cold front expected to move into eastern KS/MO. Thu/Fri: Looks drier in the wake of the cold front.
VFR WILL DOMINATE ALL THE AERODROMES TODAY WITH NO CONCERNS ON CEILINGS AND SURFACE WINDS BECOMING BREEZY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS CONVECTION FIRES UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO. WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ZONAL AND ORIENTED OUT OF THE WEST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE RETROGRADES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND BUILDS SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE NORTH.
/ISSUED 237 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/ AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN THE MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS LOW CAUSED FOR SE WINDS TO INCREASE WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DRIFT EASTWARD BUT WILL NOT CAUSE MUCH OF AN IMPACT FOR THE CWA AS SE WINDS REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TROUGH WILL EXIT TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRONGLY BUILDS IN. BUT THE NORTH WIND SHUTS DOWN WED AND STRONG WARMING UNDER THE RIDGE AT 9 TO 11 DEG F PER DAY FOR BOTH WED AND THU. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE POPULATED I-15/US-20 CORRIDOR FROM FORT HALL NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH THE COLD NORTHERLY WIND ALL DAY.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF A LARGE DEPARTING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. RIDGING AND FURTHER DRYING WILL OCCUR AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DROPS BELOW WHAT WE MENTION IN OUR FORECASTS.
210 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016 NEGATIVE TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF THE DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH MISSOURI INTO ARKANSAS WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI DOWN ALONG MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE NEAR THE COAST IN THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.
401 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
Strengthening low-level flow will allow a warm front to lift north across the region. latest runs of the NAM and GFS suggest warm front from the previous evening may get hung up along/north of Route 36 as convection approaches from the northwest.
A cold front has moved through the area shifting winds from the north and northeast. Will keep other TAF site VFR for now though the lower clouds could move north around 06Z as winds become more southeasterly. /issued 308 AM CST Fri Nov 25 2016/ Cold front currently heading toward northern Mexico with cooler air gradually filtering southward behind the front. Moisture will gradually increase today and tonight in the cooler air as warm advection increases above and north of the front. Temperatures are expected to be below normal today in the cooler air and increasing clouds with above normal temperatures tonight. By Saturday the jet and precipitation will decrease but temperatures will remain slightly below normal in the cooler air with cloud cover persisting.
Sharp ridging moves in today, allowing for plenty sun and temps in the 40's.
Highs will again be above normal, with readings this afternoon near 50 in the lower elevations and 30s in the mountains.
and the warmer temperatures farther North. Since they are starting off a bit cooler than expected this morning, it may be difficult to warm quite as much as expected this afternoon. Shaved a couple degrees of the highs from the previous forecast.
Early this morning an upper level trough was moving east across the upper Midwest, southward to the mid MS river valley. This upper level trough is progged to amplify Today as it continues to shift east into the Great Lakes and OH river valley. Eastern Kansas will be under northwesterly flow aloft as an upper ridge amplifies across the central Rockies. High temperatures will range from the lower to mid 50s, with the cooler readings across far northeast KS, along the NE border. Tonight will be clear with temperatures falling off into the lower to mid 30s.
1105 AM MST Fri Nov 25 2016 Upper level high pressure will migrate eastward across the area today, with generally clear skies and light winds at most locations. As 700mb temps climb toward 2C, max temps around the region will rise to slightly above average levels, and a few near 60F readings will be possible over the lower Arkansas Valley. Saturday and Saturday evening, With the upper ridge across the area, dry and mild weather for late November is expected. During the evening, an approaching longwave trough will begin spreading moisture into the San Juan Mountains, with the possibility of snow developing toward midnight in our CWA.