Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WARM FRONT WAS BARELY PUSHING ONSHORE THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT WAS KEEPING CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN IN PLACE FOR THE COASTAL AREAS. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE TEMPS TODAY AS WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH. A LOT OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS SLOWLY PUSH THE WARM FRONT NORTH SO THERE WILL BE A GOOD TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA FOR MAX TEMPS. STILL MENTIONED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER S TX POSSIBLY MOVING OVER THE REGION TO ENHANCE LIFT.
THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES MILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH 40S TO LOW 50S OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SO FAR THIS MORNING. FLAT RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN AREAS OF PUEBLO COUNTY WILL SEE THE HIGHEST DANGER.
143 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THEN STALL. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE EAST AND MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MEANDERING ACROSS EXTREME NW PA WILL BE THE FOCUS OF SOME SHOWERS LATER TODAY. BUT FOR THE MOST PART SW OF THE COLD FRONT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE 60-65 RANGE. LOCATIONS NE OF THE COLD FRONT HOWEVER WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 50S. WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS NOTED ON THIS EVENINGS ANALYSIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, A PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TO THE EAST OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN COLORADO. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE PROFILES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ARE FAIRLY DRY EXCEPT FOR HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING WARMER AIR MOVING BACK OUT OVER WESTERN KANSAS TODAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S, WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
/ISSUED 402 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015/ DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY.
322 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015 A THE FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS STALLED FRONT WILL MEANDER NORTH ON MONDAY AND PROVIDE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES EASTWARD ALONG IT. THE FRONT REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD FINALLY BREAKING DOWN BOTH UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM BLOCKS ALLOWING 500MB RIDGING TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS NOAM.
During the day this snow should have little impact to travel, due to road surface temperatures remaining above freezing. These two disturbances will cause the higher terrain to receive 5 to 10 inches of new snow.
GRADUAL SATURATION OF THE LOW LEVELS WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH WILL LOWER CIGS TO MVFR AT CHA AFTER 12Z.
121 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS EVENING BUT IT WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. 05Z RAP WAS AROUND 3 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
107 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2015 /18Z TAFS/ IFR cigs are slow to improve especially at KABI, KJCT and KBBD as the warm front moves slowly east. Winds should become southerly as the warm front continues to move north through the day. Tomorrow morning lows will also reflect some warming, with lows mostly in the lower 60s.
337 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER 60S. RIDGING ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHRTWV WILL PUT A LID ON ANY SGFNT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN OUR AREA MONDAY AFTN DESPITE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL S-SW FLOW/WAA CAUSING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME LOWER LAYER SATURATION AS MID LEVELS DRY OUT AND WARM.
207 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS UNSETTLED WEATHER MID-WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO TAKE CONTROL INTO THE WEEKEND IN A COLDER PATTERN. AS THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS A BIT BETTER LATE MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST BY LATE MONDAY. WITH AN INVERTED TROF POSSIBLY EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. AIRMASS SHOULD BE DRY AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE TROF.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK BY TO THE SOUTH.
Surface analysis this afternoon shows high pressure centered across the northern Great Lakes region while a weak low pressure slides along the Gulf coast. Lows tonight will be dictated by cloud cover, likely holding in the low 40s across southern Kentucky while low to mid 30s are expected elsewhere. Highs will vary once again from the low 50s in the north to low to mid 60s across the south, with more sun expected along/south of the Ohio River.
109 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 AVIATION CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AND BRING FAIR WEATHER WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
607 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
508 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
A WEAK RIDGE MOVES OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO EARLY MONDAY WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS AND INTO WESTERN KANSAS. WINDS PICK UP ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
333 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS EXTENDS AN INVERTED TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH INVERTED TROUGH WEAKENING WITH TIME. THIS CAN BE SEEN IN THE RADAR JUST WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CWA BRIEFLY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AS UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS MAIN TROF APPROACHES THE AREA.
138 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PLAINS WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES MONDAY NIGHT.
110 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015 /18Z TAFS/ UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW EXITING NE TX AT MIDDAY. /ISSUED 331 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015/ THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS CENTERED RIGHT OVER NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING AND CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. BUT LEE SIDE TROUGHING IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL SERVE TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES BUT THINK THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE AFT 18Z AT MOST TERMINALS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES TO MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF FLORIDA WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPRESS CHANCES OF CONVECTION AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL AGAIN LEAD TO UNSEASONABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PENINSULA TODAY.
WEAK FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW EXITING EAST WITH CLOUDS DECREASING IN MOST OF OUR CWA. STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD SHOWERS EWD ACROSS OREGON ZONES LATER THIS EVENING AND IDAHO ZONES ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN OVERNIGHT. EXITING EAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT LEAVING BEHIND COOLER AIR. MAX TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGS COOLER THAN TODAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD MORE SHOWERS INTO OREGON ZONES MONDAY MORNING AND IDAHO ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON. BRIEF CLEARING LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING THEN ANOTHER PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND MORE SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT.
1238 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015 A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. WHILE AN INVERTED LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND APPROACHES IOWA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUOUS INTRUSION OF DRY AND STABLE AIR OUT OF THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AS WELL EVIDENCED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. MEANWHILE IN SOUTHWEST IOWA MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD WARMING DESPITE THE EASTERLY FLOW. AND HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S AROUND DES MOINES AND LOWER 70S DOWN AROUND CORNING AND BEDFORD.
Light virga (rain not hitting the ground) showers are being picked up on radar this afternoon and as the clouds increase and grow more moist this afternoon/evening, some light showers or sprinkles are likely to develop over the higher terrain along the Montana/Idaho border. A cold front will be swinging through the Northern Rockies on Monday.
THE FAR SE IS QUITE WARM NOW (77-80) BUT THEY TO WILL TRANSITION COOLER AS THE WIND SHIFT OCCUR BY EARLY EVENING. OVERCAST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER AS HIGH MOISTURE WILL EXIST IN THE 925-850MB LAYER AND BE LOCATED WITH A LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. SOME CLEARING FROM THE W/NW IS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON ON MON AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON TEMPS TOMORROW AND HAVE TRENDED MORE IN LINE WITH THE COOLER RAW BLENDS AS THEY SEEM TO CAPTURE THE SITUATION BEST. LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND FOR TUE INTO WED AS THE AREA WILL BE IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
258 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015 HEIGHT FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE RIDGE ON TRACK TO REACH THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE EXITED EAST OF THE REGION AHEAD OF STRONGER AND DEEPER W-SW FLOW. THIS PROCESS WILL AID IN BIRTHING AN AFTERNOON DRYLINE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS ALL THE WHILE PRESSURE FALLS FOCUS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF A S/W TROUGH IN COLORADO.
A LOW PRESSURE WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS SW MISSISSIPPI WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER REMAIN POSSIBLE CLOSEST TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE ATLANTIC EAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND ESTABLISHING A WEAK.
331 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2015 VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER THE DRY AIR SLOT WAS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA WITH INCREASED AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. BUT CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE MID 60S. THE LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT. NOT VERY CONFIDENT AND REMAIN SKEPTICAL THAT STORMS WILL INITIATE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOWER LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION AND LACK OF A SOLID MOIST LAYER IN MODEL SOUNDINGS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST OR NORTH BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS TODAY AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS WELL. AND WARMED TEMPS MORESO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. FRONT THEN SETTLES SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
325 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015 A COOL AND VERY DRY EAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAS BEEN HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S OVER THE NORTHLAND AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS HELPING TO KEEP SKIES SUNNY. A BAND OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER THE LOW AND MID LEVELS STILL REMAIN QUITE DRY. STILL COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION JUST CLIP OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES MAINLY NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE MID TO LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN THIS AREA. FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLDEST READINGS WILL BE NEAR 40 CLOSE TO THE BUFFALO RIDGE. THE LOW EXITS THE AREA THIS EVENING. RAIN MAY SWITCH OVER TO LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST IN THE MEDIUM RANGE REMAINS ACTIVE AS ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SPINE OF THE ROCKIES SHIFTS EAST AND BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED. 00Z MODELS HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA OF STRENGTHENING THE UPPER WAVE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE ELONGATED TROUGH WITH LIMITED JET DYNAMIC REMAINING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE US.
MODELS WERE POINTING TO A PROLONGED PERIOD FOR FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. NAM/GFS LEANING TOWARD SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE ON THE BACK END OF THE EXITING PCPN BAND LATE TONIGHT. DRIVING A WEST COAST TROUGH DUE EAST AND SWINGING THE TROUGH AXIS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z WED.
330 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015 THE LOW LEVELS WERE FINALLY BECOMING SATURATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS RADAR ECHOES WERE TURNING INTO LIGHT SNOW AT THE SURFACE.
252 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015 REGION WILL SETTLE INTO WARM AND DRY WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN WAKE OF MID/UPPER LOW EJECTING ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. RESPITE WILL NOT LAST AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX ON THU BRINING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND COOLER WEATHER BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS SHOULD LIFT A BIT FARTHER TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE EXITING WITH THE MAIN TROUGH OVERNIGHT. COOLER AND REMAINING MAINLY CLOUDY INTO THE DAY MONDAY.
1203 PM PDT SUN MAR 22 2015 High pressure will bring a relatively quiet weather day on Sunday before another moist and breezy cold front arrives tonight.
158 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. RAIN AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDS WILL CAP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MAINLY EARLY IN THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS IS NOW PUSHING TO THE EAST AND MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX IS FORECAST TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE REGION.
WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK BY TO OUR SOUTH AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
The upper pattern will become zonal across the area on Monday, which will induce lee troughing and increase south winds to the 10 to 15 mph range by afternoon. Temperatures will warm nicely tomorrow, with afternoon highs climbing into the lower 80s for much of the area.
LEFT THE LOW POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH A MDT TO STG WLY FLOW ALOFT. RIDGETOP WINDS IN THE EVENING WLY AROUND 30 KTS. STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OCCURS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
623 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MAINLY EARLY IN THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH.
1143 AM MDT Sun Mar 22 2015 Lowered PoPs for this afternoon, but still kept a slight chance over the higher terrain across southwest Montana. As a ridge of high pressure moves over the Treasure State, dry and quiet conditions are anticipated with temperatures remaining above seasonal averages.
ENOUGH RAIN FELL TO GREATLY BOOST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE VERY SHALLOW THROUGH THE MORNING. WEAK SURFACE LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD TODAY WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES TO VALUES SOME 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
140 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING CENTERED OVER CUBA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO NUDGE INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. THERE IS HINT OF A SHORT LIVED MODERATE PICK UP OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE CELL ROLLS EASTWARD OFF OF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT. WITH TROUGHING INDICATED DOWN TO AT LEAST 850 MB. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 87 DEGREES.
/ISSUED 1039 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015/ UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIRECTLY OVHD LATE THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND LIFT OUT QUICKLY EAST OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING. MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE HOURLY TEMPS WERE RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER THAN OUR HOURLY FCST TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST.
A 500-MB TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE TROF IS PUSHING INTO THE REGION MONDAY. AS MILD AIR AHEAD OF THE TROUGH STAYS IN PLACE AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. WITH WARMER TEMPS. COMBINE THAT WITH INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND TROF CROSSING THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE NEARLY THE SAME AS YESTERDAY WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOW 60S.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.
125 PM PDT SUN MAR 22 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING COOLING.
104 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WITH NW SFC FLOW. EXPECT GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION TODAY AND HAVE DROPPED POPS FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NRN COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE CLIPPED BY UPPER LOW THIS AFTERNOON AS IT EJECTS ENEWD.
340 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015 MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE NOW SITUATED OVER SRN MS. WHILE WEAK RIDGING TO A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT.
150 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2015 As the upper low that brought rain to the area moves off to the east. high pressure aloft will build into the region.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY THE END OF THE WEEK FOR MOSTLY CLEAR. CALMER AND WARMER CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
SATELLITE LOOP CLEARLY /PUN INTENDED/ SHOWING IMPACT OF LATE MARCH SUNSHINE IN MOST AREAS WITH STEADY TO RAPID EROSION OF THE LOW DECKS. AND DEWPOINTS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW 60S AT BEST WILL ENSURE PLENTY OF SURFACE SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS TO PERCOLATE INTO RADIATION FOG OVERNIGHT. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO GO FOR VLIFR (1/4 MILE VISIBILITY AND VV001) FOR THE LOWER VALLEY AND A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR KMFE.
OTHERWISE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. WITH WARMER AIR SPREADING BACK INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS ON MONDAY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONVERGE INTO ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.
CULMINATING WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE. COOLER WEATHER WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS ATTACHED TO THE NORTHERN STREAM PASS THROUGH THE REGION. THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING THIS TIME WILL HELP WITH THE COOL DOWN. AS THIS RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST BY THE LATE IN THE WEEK.
251 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015 FILLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. FOLLOWED BY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WE'VE SEEN IN THE LAST FEW DAYS. SFC RIDGING EXITS OUR REGION TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTH WINDS RETURNING.
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE AND WAS STILL RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. LEFT THE MENTION IN AS THE LOW MOVES BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS FINALLY KICKED IN SOUTH WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS OVERHEAD. A LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST YESTERDAY THEN SHIFTED NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA. THIS IS DUE IN PART TO A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TODAY INTO MONDAY. OUR BEFORE ADVERTISED NORTHERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TODAY OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. THIS WILL HELP TO AIDE THE LOW OVER TEXAS/LOUISIANA TO PROGRESS ALONG THE COAST TODAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN U.
THIS RETREATING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS KS MONDAY AFTN AND EVENING.
/ISSUED 150 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2015/ As the upper low that brought rain to the area moves off to the east. high pressure aloft will build into the region.
621 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE EASTERN LAKES BY MONDAY NIGHT.
KEPT SNOW TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE WELL NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES.
ITS ACCOMPANYING LOW WAS OVER KANSAS/NEBRASKA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SPREADING SOUTH TOWARDS I-94 BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. AND INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
125 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. AS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. RAIN AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDS WILL CAP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MAINLY EARLY IN THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH.
154 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2015 VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER THE DRY AIR SLOT WAS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA WITH INCREASED AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. BUT CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE MID 60S. THE LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT. NOT VERY CONFIDENT AND REMAIN SKEPTICAL THAT STORMS WILL INITIATE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOWER LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION AND LACK OF A SOLID MOIST LAYER IN MODEL SOUNDINGS.
156 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 STRONG RIDGING CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. YOU'LL LOVE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S THANKS TO COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
A WEAK UPPER UPPER LEVEL TROF AND AN ASSOCIATED CLIPPER TYPE OF SYSTEM WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY.
251 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BROUGHT UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND WEAKENING AS IT MOVE INTO THE AREA.
400 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH LOW PRESSURE SKIRTING THE BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND THE MID 50S TO THE NORTH. THEY ALL DEPICT A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH WHILE SOME ENERGY SLIPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE MONDAY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM.