Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
MOST OF THE RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA IS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND AS THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE VERY DRY. DRY LOWER LEVELS FROM PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGING WILL RESULT IN ONLY VERY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER TEXAS.
1015 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015 BEAUTIFUL MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST DEPARTS AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO ON AVERAGE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. MORNING LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH ARE MAKING IT FEEL SLIGHTLY COOLER. AS THE LOW DEEPENS. A BROAD RIDGE WILL BUILD DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
Meanwhile at the surface, the dry ridge axis held in place with mostly cloudy skies and temps falling near 50 degrees by sunrise. Tonight, skies remain mostly cloudy to overcast while ridging aloft results in dry conditions. Insulation from cloud cover will keep lows warmer compared to previous mornings in the lower 50s.
1208 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION, ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER, FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEK. UPPER LOW HAS SHIFTED JUST EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING BUT WE'RE STILL DEALING WITH SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE NORTH AS WELL AS A LITTLE CONVERGENCE LINE STRETCHING FROM SANTA ROSA ISLAND TO ORANGE COUNTY WHICH IS GENERATING SOME SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOME VERY WEAK ROTATION. ***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION*** ON TUESDAY THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN THE RETREATING LOW AND AN APPROACHING UPPER HIGH.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST BASED ON UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND SURFACE PRESSURE TRENDS NEXT 36 PLUS HOURS.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THOUGH IT WILL FLATTEN SLIGHTLY TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL, WITH TUESDAY BEING WARMER THAN TODAY (ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS ABOVE 2000 FT). A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
WILL REFINE THE LOW POPS ALONG THE BAND OF SHOWERS. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING SLOWLY EAST- NORTHEAST INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. TRAILING TROUGH AXIS/PVA CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIGHT SHOWERS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF SE GA/NE FL WERE THE CLOSEST RAIN TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING.
STILL EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION ACTIVITY TO REMAIN OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AND WEST OF A LINE FROM EASTERN WELD DOWN TO EASTERN ELBERT COUNTY OVER THE PLAINS. A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. IN THE LOW 70S. THIS COUPLED WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD HELP TO INITIATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WL BE FROM THE URBAN CORRIDOR WEST INTO THE HIGH COUNTRY. A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE LUMBERING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING TO PROGGED TO HAVE MOVED TO JUST OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA BY MIDDAY TUE.
Across the southeast CWA, skies are mostly sunny, but some increase in clouds on tap as the higher clouds stream in from the southwest. With high pressure anchored from Lake Superior into the Central Plains. E/NE low-level flow around the high will tend to advect the cloudiness back into the KILX CWA over the next few hours. Thanks to continued E/NE flow around the high and a weak upper-level disturbance. Once the high gradually slides further east and winds begin to shift to a more southerly direction.
NORTHEAST FLOW AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT IFR/MVFR STRATOCUMULUS. THE LOWEST CIGS WILL MIX OUT COMPLETELY AND HIGHER VFR CIGS JUST ABOVE 3000 FT WILL BE PREVALENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BRINGING CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THIS ADDITIONAL INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE EVEN LESS. AT MIDWEEK WE WILL HAVE SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE MS VALLEY REGION.
AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER SRN CA INCHES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE CONTDVD AND SW MTS. BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS COULD PICK UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THROUGH TUE MORNING. WITH THE WARMER SPOTS OVER THE PLAINS REACHING THE UPPER 70S. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S-60S.
LESS MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER TOMORROW /AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE AREA/ ALONG WITH MORE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TUES AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR TO OVER THE WEEKEND THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN A CLOUD DECK TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. THE CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR CLOUDY WEATHER AS OF LATE WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST THIS MORNING AND WILL BE PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE ANOTHER CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BETWEEN THESE FEATURES AND BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.
Morning sounding data indicate that the low level moisture across western portions of the forecast area is quite shallow, in stark contrast to how deep the moist layer is in the eastern part. Mesoanalysis indicates the low level moisture gradient is just east of Highway 75 at this time, and given some easterly component to the winds in these levels, this could move west some through the morning but likely not by much.
931 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
LEAVING PERSISTENT RIDGING AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALONG THE LAKESHORES.
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW TODAY THEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER CALIFORNIA BEFORE STRENGTHEN LATE IN THE WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION THIS WEEK LEADING TO DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
957 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 THE LARGE UPPER LOW THAT WE HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST AWAY FROM NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES BUT POSSIBLY NOT ENOUGH.
BREEZE SHOULD SETTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 80 60 81 58 / 10 10 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 79 58 80 57 / 10 10 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 80 56 80 57 / 10 10 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 76 50 78 52 / 10 10 0 0.
902 AM PDT MON OCT 5 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW.
1046 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH A RIDGE AXIS JUST OFFSHORE WILL MOVE INLAND OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. SINKING MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY'S HIGHS. THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THOUGH IT WILL FLATTEN SLIGHTLY TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL, WITH TUESDAY BEING WARMER THAN TODAY (ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS ABOVE 2000 FT). A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
1041 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 AN APPRAISAL OF GOES-EAST MOISTURE CHANNEL ANIMATIONS THIS MORNING SHOWS A DEEP CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC BIGHT BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES RETURNING AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO REGION DURING THE DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEK. SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE ERN L. A SMALL VORT LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE UNDERSIDE OF THE LOW BROUGHT A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS TO THE POMONA REGION WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL FOR UP TO AN HOUR AND DROPPED ABOUT A HALF INCH OF RAIN ON THE AREA. AS THE LOW TRUNDLES SLOWLY TO THE EAST THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN WILL SWITCH FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF L. MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR THE COASTS AND VLYS. ON TUESDAY THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN THE RETREATING LOW AND AN APPROACHING UPPER HIGH.
1044 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015 WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO RIDGE S ACROSS MOST OF THE C AND NE U. WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE E COAST WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. /ISSUED 428 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015/ LATEST UA ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE REGION. BETWEEN A DEEP UPPER LOW NOW EXITING THE SE COAST AND AN UPSTREAM LOW DROPPING INTO SRN CA. WV CHANNEL SHOWS SOME MOISTURE ALOFT STREAMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO THE AREA WHILE 3. THIS MORNING WILL SEE THE LAST OF THE COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE TIME BEING AS THEY GRADUALLY MODERATE UNDER BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
/ISSUED 414 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015/ MOST MODELS ARE UNDERESTIMATING PERSISTENCE/STRENGTH OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH S/WV TROUGH LIFTING NORTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST COULD PRODUCE CLEARING SKIES LATE TONIGHT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
451 AM PDT MON OCT 5 2015 Quieter weather is expected through Tuesday, with mostly clear skies as high pressure builds over the area. The ridge weakens mid week with a chance of light rain entering the region. Today through Tuesday: Expect generally clear skies/dry weather and light winds under an upper ridge that begins to break down by Tues. Concerning Tues and the flattening of the ridge, the approaching frontal system and vort max that moves into NW Wa should only produce some mid and high clouds. Low temps could reach freezing across the sheltered valleys of Nrn Wa and N Idaho.
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING SLOWLY EAST- NORTHEAST INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. TRAILING TROUGH AXIS/PVA CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIGHT SHOWERS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
The lack of extensive stratus should lead to warmer afternoon high temperatures across the region today compared to yesterday. Winds will remain out of the north or northeast due to the influence of a ridge axis to the north.
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE UPPER LOW IN CALIFORNIA WAS APPROACHING THE ID/NV BORDER THIS MORNING. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE PACNW AND BRING DRIER AIR TO MOST OF SE OREGON/SW IDAHO. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA EVEN MORE ON TUESDAY. WHILE RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U. WITH HIGHS 3-6 DEGREES WARMER TODAY AND ANOTHER 2-4 DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL PUT THE REGION UNDER THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A LOWER LEVEL INVERSION AND WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
742 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 THE CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED JUST OFF THE GA/FL COAST SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY BEFORE TAKING A NORTHEAST TURN BY TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GA. CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS WILL PROGRESS INTO SRN ROCKIES BUT THEN GET PUSHED SOUTH THEN WEST AS LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN STATES.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY.
NO IMPACTS AS RIDGE BEGINS TO FILL IN BEHIND LAST WEEKENDS SYSTEM.
A NORTH WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AT SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS ALL MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND TONIGHT. OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW. THE LOW WILL BE SLOWLY KICK OUT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY. AGAIN THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL BE FAVORED AS THE LOW TRACKS E INTO ARIZONA AND THEN SOUTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
There is a cut-off low in the upper levels east of Jacksonville. This low is vertically stacked with a weak low at the sfc. Highs will be mostly in the low 70s.
UPPER LOW SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHERN CA SHOULD MAKE IT TO AROUND EL PASO BY EARLY THURS MORNING. WITH RIDGING THEN TAKING BACK SHAPE OVER TEXAS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM (CURRENTLY AOA SRN CALIFORNIA)BEGINS TO MOVE IN THIS DIRECTION. THE DEEPENING UPPER TROF WILL HELP DRAW INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE REGION AND LIKELY PRODUCE SOME UNSETTLED WX FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK (AND PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WIND/SEAS).
736 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TOMORROW.
WEAK CYCLONE LIFTING UP THE SERN SEABOARD THIS MRNG WILL CARRY A DEEP COLD POCKET ALONG WITH IT. ESPECIALLY AS MID LVL VORTICITY DIMINISHES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING CYCLONE. ESPECIALLY AS OVER THE NEXT 24HRS A NEW SURGE OF NRLY WINDS/NE SWELLS IS EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN FROM THE CAROLINAS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NE FL COAST.
1112 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MAINE WILL DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS MOISTURE AND LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IS RUNNING INTO MUCH DRIER AREA IN THE LOWER LAYERS AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHOWER CHANCE MAY KEEP A LID ON MAX TEMPS TODAY WITH SOME AREAS NOT CLIMBING OUT OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S. UNCLEAR HOW FAR EAST PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT GIVEN RIDGE AXIS ALSO ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS. INITIALIZATION TEMPERATURES LIKELY A GOOD FIRST GUESS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF COLD FRONT PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO WHAT OCCURS IN THE VICINITY OF OF COLD FRONT.
1020 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TOMORROW.
904 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER INTO THE MID WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE EAST COAST IS FORECAST TO FILL AND CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE MID-WEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO ON AVERAGE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. MORNING LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH ARE MAKING IT FEEL SLIGHTLY COOLER. AS THE LOW DEEPENS. A BROAD RIDGE WILL BUILD DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
1111 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY.
STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF UPPER LOW OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IS ADVECTING LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO GEORGIA AND ALABAMA. IN FACT WE MAY EVEN GO TO SKC FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE OUTER FRINGE OF THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY PROVIDING A SUBSIDENCE ZONE THAT IS SLIDING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. 16 A GRADUALLY RETURN TO WARMER.
704 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015 Impact of clouds on temperatures already under the control of low level northeast flow around the SE US upper low to be the short term forecast challenge today. Readings will be lowest out west as this area will be slowest to break with the remainder of the region warmer than yesterday. Blocking pattern to break down early in the period as persistent upper low over the SE US fills and exits into the Atlantic while SW US upper low slides southeastward into northern Mexico under intensifying northern stream.
BUT EVEN IF THE LOW CLOUDS DIMINISH MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. THE AIR UPSTREAM IS WARMER THAN THE AIR OVER THE REGION NOW SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND REACH ABOUT 70F IN EASTERN WISCONSIN.
DRY LOWER LEVELS FROM PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGING WILL RESULT IN ONLY VERY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER TEXAS.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THE LOW PUSHES DIRECTLY INTO THE AREA. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. AS THE LOW SLOWLY PUSHES TOWARD SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A POSSIBLE SWEET SPOT IN TIMING IS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE JET DYNAMICS JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW. THIS CUTOFF ACTUALLY BEGINS TO REACT TO THE STRONG RIDGE WEST OF THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IMPACTING SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.
AS THE PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD BE CUT OFF LATER TODAY WITH THE FLATTENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY. WITH WARMER/MORE HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT IS RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE SRN PLAINS/MS VALLEY TUESDAY. AS MID 80S SEEMED TOO WARM OVER THE E GIVEN THE FLATTENING RIDGING ALOFT.
CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW AT THE LOWEST LEVELS MAY AGAIN CONTRIBUTE TO SOME DEGREE OF STRATUS EXPANSION AS WELL.
749 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TOMORROW.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HOLD ACROSS TEXAS INCLUDING DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. A LITTLE WARMER OWING TO CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED MOISTURE.
1218 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER INTO THE MID WEEK.
With high pressure anchored from Lake Superior into the Central Plains. E/NE low-level flow around the high will tend to advect the cloudiness back into the KILX CWA over the next few hours. Thanks to continued E/NE flow around the high and a weak upper-level disturbance. Once the high gradually slides further east and winds begin to shift to a more southerly direction.
WHICH IS WHERE WE WILL SEE OUR HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S. A NORTH WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AT SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS ALL MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES.
723 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER INTO THE MID WEEK.
High pressure at the surface and aloft should keep the region dry through the period.
Winds will generally be from a southerly direction today into tonight as a trough of low pressure continues across eastern Colorado. As for temperatures, highs today look to reach into the lower to mid 70s with lows in the lower to mid 50s.
BENIGN WEATHER IS THEN ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE SRN CA UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW. SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN HANDLING THIS PARTICULAR UPPER LEVEL LOW.
THE OTHER CONSIDERATION IS THAT TONIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE STATE TEMPS ARE STAYING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WE WERE LAST NIGHT. THIS WILL AT LEAST GIVE US A NUDGE TOWARDS WARMER TEMPS TODAY. EVEN THOUGH GUIDANCE WAS WARMER.
739 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MAINE WILL RIDGE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS IT DRIFTS SOUTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FINALLY BUILDING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH WARMER, DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION AND GENERALLY GOOD FLYING WEATHER THE NEXT 24 HRS. LOTS OF SUN FOR EVERYONE AND AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 80S. AND WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE.
643 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE AREA.
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW TODAY THEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER CALIFORNIA BEFORE STRENGTHEN LATE IN THE WEEK. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ANOMALOUSLY ENERGETIC 561DM UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTLINE. THIS UPPER LOW BROUGHT THOUSANDS OF LIGHTNING STRIKES TO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SIERRA NEVADA TO THAT REGION YESTERDAY. WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE EAST OVER SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES AS A RESULT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW. OUR REGION WILL RESIDE BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW AND UPPER HIGH THROUGH THE NEXT DAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TO SET UP BY MID WEEK AS THE COASTAL RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT DOWNSTREAM AND STRENGTHEN OVER REGION.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. A WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THIS LOW AND THEN TURNS NORTH RUNNING THROUGH THE CENTER OF ALABAMA IN A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S.
Upper level ridging will remain in place across the forecast area today into tonight. The ridge will start to shift to the west Tuesday with northwesterly flow setting up. Lows tonight will drop into the lower to mid 50s.
/ISSUED 428 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015/ LATEST UA ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE REGION. BETWEEN A DEEP UPPER LOW NOW EXITING THE SE COAST AND AN UPSTREAM LOW DROPPING INTO SRN CA. WV CHANNEL SHOWS SOME MOISTURE ALOFT STREAMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO THE AREA WHILE 3. THIS MORNING WILL SEE THE LAST OF THE COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE TIME BEING AS THEY GRADUALLY MODERATE UNDER BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
1256 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY.
Upper ridging will briefly end rain chances this evening into Tuesday but a low over southern California will move east along the U.
THESE STORM MOTIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE LOWER- TROPOSPHERIC FLOW THROUGH A SHARP EASTERLY WAVE. THE WAVE EMERGED FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA YESTERDAY. AND DECELERATED AS IT PIVOTED NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A ROBUST DEEP LAYER MEAN SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS. A WELL-DEFINED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THE AXIS ALIGNED WITH THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC LAYER MEAN POSITION. UPSCALE GROWTH WITH DEEP CUMULUS CONVECTION BETWEEN THE LOWER KEYS AND DRY TORTUGAS IS LEADING TO MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT. IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LOWER KEYS. IF THE MCS DOES BUILD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER KEYS.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL UTAH BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING. WITH THE REGION BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. COLD FRONT IS NEAR A KTPH-KFWZ LINE THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY AS IT WEAKENS. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL JUST MISS UTAH AS IT MOVES ACROSS IDAHO AND MONTANA TODAY. LOOKING AT NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE BEST COOLING OVER NORTHERN UTAH WHERE MAXES SHOULD BE IN EXCESS OF 10F BELOW VALUES OBSERVED YESTERDAY. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TONIGHT.