Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
124 AM EDT Sat Oct 8 2022 Some minor changes were made this evening, largely associated with the passage of the cold front. Otherwise, notably cooler temperatures to the north indicate that overall low temperatures are still expected to remain the same as drier air and clearer conditions advance towards the region. Cold front passage occurs later today, but will be moisture starved so no rainfall expected. Some guidance does try to spit out a hundredth or two of QPF in some of the higher terrain of southwest Virginia and the east TN mountains, but this seems optimistic to say the least.
(Today through Sunday) The cold front is just about south of the area this morning and will continue to clear by daybreak. The drier airmass is just now working into the north, so temperatures are a touch warmer than the expectant outcome for the night. Cool temperatures on Sunday as well, with high pressure building in.
141 AM EDT Sat Oct 8 2022 Temperatures will drop a little cooler than normal over the weekend as a cold front continues to advance southeast.
322 AM EDT Sat Oct 8 2022 Below normal temperatures are expected for the next several days as high pressure builds in behind a cold front.
230 AM EDT Sat Oct 8 2022 A dry cold front will move offshore early today. Canadian high pressure will follow and extend from the mid MS Valley to the Mid- Atlantic through the weekend with much cooler air. The dry cold front was moving south through north-central NC and will move offshore before daybreak. CAA today will lead to much cooler temperatures. The latest satellite data indicated cirrus/cirrostratus that were associated with the upper jet from the lower MS Valley NE across NC. Expect partly sunny this morning, then becoming sunny this afternoon as the high level moisture shifts south. Highs today will be only in the mid 60s north ranging into the lower 70s south. Thicknesses and statistical guidance support a modest increase in temperatures as the high builds overhead.
Shower activity will continue through the early morning hours and at least into the early afternoon across much of the FA as the upper low over Sonora/Baja California slowly drifts eastward.
Northwesterly, nearly meridional, flow continues over the Northern Plains between deep eastern CONUS troughing and a west coast ridge. As a warmer 850mb air mass has moved over the region this morning and will persist through the weekend, seasonably warm temperatures are expected with highs generally in the 60s and morning lows in the 30s.
The window of clearing away from Lake Michigan in the middle of the night did allow the surface layer to decouple and rapidly cool toward freezing as winds went light. Forecast soundings show the clouds hanging on through much of the morning possibly into part of the afternoon before somewhat warmer and drier air moves in. A fairly tight pressure gradient over our area, between the high to our southwest and the southern Hudson Bay low, will make the day quite breezy once deeper boundary layer mixing is established. Dry air in the lower levels would act to limit it, however.
It was enough to keep high temperatures very cool today, looks like they should only reach the upper 40s and lower 50s for the lower elevations. There looks to be enough instability and moisture over the high terrain another round of scattered showers with a few storms, bringing light precipitation and few impacts. 700mb temperatures warm a couple degrees from Saturday, so highs will be slightly warmer with highs in the low 70s for the lower elevations.
Slight concern through the short term will be temps in the higher elevations of north Georgia, with Min Ts flirting in the mid to upper 30s under mostly clear skies. Not anticipating Frost/Freeze products at this time, but will continue to monitor and agricultural interests in the higher elevations should take caution.
Enhanced low/mid clouds will however keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than otherwise across aforementioned area.
and Sunday High pressure will track over the mid-Mississippi Valley today while a low pressure system tracks over Hudson Bay. A weak cold front will then sink south across northern Wisconsin later tonight then through the rest of the area on Sunday.
Expect afternoon highs well up into the 50s(F) to possibly the lower 60s(F) farther north dependent on how soon sunshine may break through.
1044 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 (This evening through Saturday) Much cooler conditions are in place behind the cold front this afternoon, with some areas under clouds and precipitation still sitting in the mid to upper 50s currently, 20-30 degrees cooler than this time yesterday. This translates to highs in the low to mid 50s for portions of western Oklahoma, with 60s across much of the rest of the area and low 70s across far southern portions of Oklahoma and western north Texas.
Behind the cold front highs will linger in the 60s across north GA and low to mid 70s across north-central GA. Across south-central where the "cooler" air will arrive later in the evening highs will mid 80s.
First, dry air was sampled in the low and mid levels, secondly we have an inversion layer based at near 800 mb. RAOB KEY analysis showed lowering heights in the lower levels. Therefore, the elongated high pressure system that has been dominating our weather, has started to lose it influence over the area. An area of high pressure will build in the Southeastern U. Thanks to this high pressure system, fresh to moderate breezes will continue as they veer east. From synopsis, an elongated area of high pressure extending from the Mid- Atlantic to the Gulf Coast and a stronger area of high pressure in the eastern Atlantic will interact with a stationary front over the west- central Atlantic.
58/rose Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Saturday) The cold front is near the I-20 corridor but hardly noticeable other than a slight breeze. This will drop relative humidity back down into the 25 to 30 percent range tomorrow afternoon with highs stuck in the 70s for most areas except our southeast which may reach the lower 80s. A dry cold front will move through the area tonight.
Tonight high pressure will sink south of the area allowing for enough of a westerly flow to keep temperatures warm enough to only produce some patchy frost. Downsloping westerly flow continues through the day Sunday allowing highs to return to near normal in the low to mid 70s.
1218 AM CDT Sat Oct 8 2022 (This evening through Sunday) Sfc ridging will continue to settle southward over the state through Saturday beneath H500 N-NW flow. This will provide cooler temperatures and drier air to the state.
333 AM EDT Sat Oct 8 2022 A dry cold front will move offshore early today. Canadian high pressure will follow and extend from the mid MS Valley to the Mid- Atlantic through the weekend with much cooler air. The dry cold front was moving south through north-central NC and will move offshore before daybreak. CAA today will lead to much cooler temperatures. The latest satellite data indicated cirrus/cirrostratus that were associated with the upper jet from the lower MS Valley NE across NC. Expect partly sunny this morning, then becoming sunny this afternoon as the high level moisture shifts south. Highs today will be only in the mid 60s north ranging into the lower 70s south. Thicknesses and statistical guidance support a modest increase in temperatures as the high builds overhead.
Latest visible loop shows diurnal cu covering much of the Lower Peninsula this afternoon. Usually with north winds and high pressure moving in, the diurnal cu will scatter out during the evening leaving mostly clear skies. This situation is a little bit different because the high is over the Plains and moving southeast. There's likely enough time for skies to clear and wind to decouple for frost and freezing temperatures to occur. The pressure gradient will also begin to tighten as the high moves southeast and the next front moves toward the state. A deep trough and sfc cold front are progd to move across the region.
(Today and tonight) Much of the southern Plains continues to be influenced by a broad trough over the eastern US and a closed low over the Desert Southwest. Meanwhile, a surface cold front has settled in along the I-10 corridor. The extensive cloud cover, along with the slightly cooler airmass behind the front, should be a slight limiting factor for warming sunshine today. So high temperatures were lowered by a few degrees for today, but should still range from the lower 70s to mid 80s. Better chances exist late tonight north of I-20 as a weak impulse ejected by the closed upper low moves across north Texas.
Today will be another cool day as we sit on the back side of the upper level energy rounding the longwave trough.
320 AM CDT Sat Oct 8 2022 Seasonally cold high pressure will slide south of the area this morning and allow a westerly winds at the surface to develop.
319 AM CDT Sat Oct 8 2022 After frosty early morning low temperatures in the lower to middle 30s, abundant sunshine will help push afternoon highs into the upper 50s and lower 60s. With high pressure overhead, plenty of sunshine will be observed today. As the ridge axis settles southward into the Ohio River Valley, the lightest winds and thus coldest overnight lows will be focused across the E/SE KILX CWA where readings will once again dip into the lower to middle 30s. With light return flow developing on the north side of the ridge, think lows will be a few degrees warmer in the middle to upper 30s W/NW of I-55. This will push afternoon highs about 10 degrees warmer than today.
1203 AM CDT Sat Oct 8 2022 (This evening through Saturday) A persistent, quasi-stationary upper low centered over the Sea of Cortez will continue to feed deep moisture eastward across the forecast area from southwestern New Mexico. Cloud cover is likely to keep temperatures in check tomorrow, although with the warmer start will again forsake the low end of MOS guidance and trend toward the warmer MAV/MOS and blend init.
A dry cold front progresses across the area tonight and high pressure begins to settle in Saturday and Sunday, ushering in drier and cooler air to the region. Highs Saturday will be a bit cooler, topping out in the middle to upper 70's inland and lower 80's elsewhere. Saturday night will be much cooler, with temperatures over interior southeast MS and interior southwest AL dipping into the middle to upper 40's. Further south, lows will be in the lower 50's, perhaps middle 50's along the immediate coast. Sundays highs are a bit cooler again, with highs generally in the middle to upper 70's. A few spots in south- central AL may make it to the lower 80's.
The rest of the evening will remain pretty uneventful with high pressure maintaining light, variable winds. Weak ridging aloft will keep skies fair.
/EC/ With the dry cold front expected to move over our area later tonight, broad isentrophic ascent will help maintain some mid-high level cloudiness as we head into the overnight period. By Saturday morning, the cold front is forecasted to push south out of our area leaving behind a drier and cooler airmass. This airmass will allow for afternoon temperatures to be roughly ten degrees cooler then the previous day and peak around the upper 70s with areas south of I-20 reaching the low 80s.
(Saturday night through Sunday night) Another shot of dry air is forecast to push into the region over the short term period in the wake of a dry cold front passing through on Saturday. High temperatures on Sunday are forecast in the low to mid 80s with low temperatures overnight in the upper 40s to upper 50s. The drier air pouring into the region will keep an elevated fire danger in place for Sunday with relative humidity dropping into the low 20% to 35% range in the afternoon.
High pressure covers Nevada today, but a weak upper level system bring some afternoon clouds to northern and eastern Nevada Sunday afternoon. High pressure still dominates the weather pattern today with light winds and plenty of sunshine.
The cold front mentioned in the short term forecast discussion has cleared the majority of the CWA as of the time of this update. Slight concern through the short term will be temps in the higher elevations of north Georgia, with Min Ts flirting in the mid to upper 30s under mostly clear skies. Not anticipating Frost/Freeze products at this time, but will continue to monitor and agricultural interests in the higher elevations should take caution.
(Today and tonight) Light showers and cooler temperatures are expected for Saturday, with current temperatures ranging from the 40s in northern and central Oklahoma, up to the 50s and low 60s in southern Oklahoma and western north Texas. Continuing with recent trends with the ongoing precipitation, models have been warmer with temperatures than recent observations. As such, forecasted temperatures are expected to be cooler than model guidance, with highs remaining below 70 across the region except for far southeastern Oklahoma and portions of western north Texas, and highs only reaching the mid 50s under areas impacted by the clouds/precipitation.
Low temperatures this morning will drop into the low to upper 40s.
603 AM CDT Sat Oct 8 2022 (Today through Sunday) The cold front is just about south of the area this morning and will continue to clear by daybreak. The drier airmass is just now working into the north, so temperatures are a touch warmer than the expectant outcome for the night. Cool temperatures on Sunday as well, with high pressure building in.
539 AM CDT Sat Oct 8 2022 After frosty early morning low temperatures in the lower to middle 30s, abundant sunshine will help push afternoon highs into the upper 50s and lower 60s. With high pressure overhead, plenty of sunshine will be observed today. As the ridge axis settles southward into the Ohio River Valley, the lightest winds and thus coldest overnight lows will be focused across the E/SE KILX CWA where readings will once again dip into the lower to middle 30s. With light return flow developing on the north side of the ridge, think lows will be a few degrees warmer in the middle to upper 30s W/NW of I-55. This will push afternoon highs about 10 degrees warmer than today.
High pressure was centered over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. At the surface, high pressure will slide along the Iowa and Missouri border this morning and then into the middle Ohio River Valley. As high pressure passes to the east, winds turn to the south with speeds 5 MPH or less.
Many locations across the northeastern plains are seeing their first frost of the season, with a few CoAgMet sites even bottoming out below freezing. Observations across the urban corridor have been a touch warmer, though a few sites around Fort Collins have also dipped into the mid 30s. The rest of the day should be warmer and sunnier than yesterday, with highs returning to near normal values. Once the low clouds dissipate later this morning, we'll be left with a mostly sunny afternoon. A few showers and an isolated thunderstorm will be possible across the high country during the latter half of the day.
947 AM EDT Sat Oct 8 2022 The high pressure remains in place over the region.
Temps will warm up into the mid 60s to 70 degrees with the higher terrain in S Middle TN and NE AL only reaching the lower 60s.
A dry cold front continues to push south across the area through the early morning hours, and is expected to push south into the Gulf by mid-morning. Behind the front, high pressure builds in and settles over the area through the weekend, with drier and cooler air beginning to usher into the region from the north. Highs on Sunday trend a bit cooler again, with mainly mid to upper 70s for areas northwest of I-65, and upper 70s to low 80s southeast.
623 AM CDT Sat Oct 8 2022 Seasonally cold high pressure will slide south of the area this morning and allow a westerly winds at the surface to develop.
High pressure continues to persist over the west coast this morning. The ridges are quite a contrast with lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s and RH recoveries only around 30 to 40 percent or less. Sunday a weak trough rides down the east side of the ridge. This will bring slightly cooler temperatures aloft and as a result the interior will see a few degrees of cooling.
For reference, the climatologically normal low temperature for this time of the year is 44 degrees (with many sites being 10-15 cooler). Freezing and frosty conditions are expected to warm above freezing area-wide by 10 am leading into what is otherwise going to be a pleasant day with highs in the mid-to-upper 60s. Winds will end up out of the WSW at 10 to 15 mph ahead of a much warmer night with minimum temperatures going into Sunday bottoming out in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
521 AM MDT Sat Oct 8 2022 The blocky amplified pattern in place refuses to budge with a Rex Block in the West and deep trough in the East. About the only exciting feature weather-wise is a wave cresting western ridge tonight and dropping into the Intermountain West by late tomorrow.
An upper level ridge will keep conditions dry and warm across Western Washington through the weekend.
620 AM CDT Sat Oct 8 2022 (Today through Sunday Night) High pressure and northwest flow aloft will give way to calm and dry conditions through the short term period.
Mean layer ridging persists across the Yucatan and the extreme western North Atlantic.
616 AM CDT Sat Oct 8 2022 Today and tonight: Drier air is now flooding in from the north in the wake of a dry cold front. Southwest flow aloft is maintaining mid and high clouds but this should erode today and we will see highs rise into the lower 80s F along and south of I-20 and mid/upper 70s F north. Some of the coldest spots in the Golden Triangle area may flirt with the 30s as most areas fall into the lower 40s in northeast Mississippi.
607 AM CDT Sat Oct 8 2022 (Today and tonight) Light showers and cooler temperatures are expected for Saturday, with current temperatures ranging from the 40s in northern and central Oklahoma, up to the 50s and low 60s in southern Oklahoma and western north Texas. Continuing with recent trends with the ongoing precipitation, models have been warmer with temperatures than recent observations. As such, forecasted temperatures are expected to be cooler than model guidance, with highs remaining below 70 across the region except for far southeastern Oklahoma and portions of western north Texas, and highs only reaching the mid 50s under areas impacted by the clouds/precipitation.
928 AM EDT Sat Oct 8 2022 High pressure will settle into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through tonight. The high will continue to extend across the region on Sunday.
Persistent high pressure has been over the west coast states since the beginning of the month, resulting in dry weather with afternoon temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above normal for much of the region. This ridge will be stubborn to release it's grasp on the region's weather and unseasonably hot afternoon temperatures and dry conditions are expected to continue. Conditions along the coast and into the Umpqua Basin will be cooler thanks to the marine layer influence. An area of energy has weakened the ridge some and also pushed the ridge axis westward and offshore.
712 AM EDT Sat Oct 8 2022 (Today and tonight) Key Message: Colder temperatures this weekend, with near freezing temperatures and widespread frost expected early Sunday morning. Biggest weather story over the weekend will be the cooler temperatures, as colder air funnels in from the northwest.
645 AM EDT Sat Oct 8 2022 A dry cold front will move offshore early today. Canadian high pressure will follow and extend from the mid MS Valley to the Mid- Atlantic through the weekend with much cooler air. The dry cold front was moving south through north-central NC and will move offshore before daybreak. CAA today will lead to much cooler temperatures. The latest satellite data indicated cirrus/cirrostratus that were associated with the upper jet from the lower MS Valley NE across NC. Expect partly sunny this morning, then becoming sunny this afternoon as the high level moisture shifts south. Highs today will be only in the mid 60s north ranging into the lower 70s south. Thicknesses and statistical guidance support a modest increase in temperatures as the high builds overhead.
609 AM CDT Sat Oct 8 2022 (Today and tonight) Much of the southern Plains continues to be influenced by a broad trough over the eastern US and a closed low over the Desert Southwest. Meanwhile, a surface cold front has settled in along the I-10 corridor. The extensive cloud cover, along with the slightly cooler airmass behind the front, should be a slight limiting factor for warming sunshine today. So high temperatures were lowered by a few degrees for today, but should still range from the lower 70s to mid 80s. Better chances exist late tonight north of I-20 as a weak impulse ejected by the closed upper low moves across north Texas.
Low temperatures bottomed out in the lower to mid 30s this morning, with a few typical cool spots dipping into the upper 20s, allowing frost to develop across the area. Temps have since warmed steadily, with most locations already into the lower to mid 40s, therefore the Frost Advisory has been cancelled a little early. Forecast remains on track for today with ample sunshine and cool autumn temperatures as highs remain in the lower to mid 60s. The area's typically cool areas will likely see freezing temperatures.
(Today through Sunday Night ) High pressure and northwest flow aloft will give way to calm and dry conditions through the short term period.
344 AM MDT Sat Oct 8 2022 The blocky amplified pattern in place refuses to budge with a Rex Block in the West and deep trough in the East. About the only exciting feature weather-wise is a wave cresting western ridge tonight and dropping into the Intermountain West by late tomorrow.
A low pressure system will linger over northwest Mexico and southern Arizona with a chance of showers and thunderstorms through this weekend. The area will remain under the influence of a closed upper level low this weekend which this morning was spinning over the northern Gulf of California. Otherwise lift associated with the upper low will develop scattered showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area with some guidance suggesting locally heavy rainers, especially across Cochise county later today. On Sunday the upper low will be near the International border west of Nogales thus keeping a chance of showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area.
426 AM CDT Sat Oct 8 2022 Today and tonight: Drier air is now flooding in from the north in the wake of a dry cold front. Southwest flow aloft is maintaining mid and high clouds but this should erode today and we will see highs rise into the lower 80s F along and south of I-20 and mid/upper 70s F north. Some of the coldest spots in the Golden Triangle area may flirt with the 30s as most areas fall into the lower 40s in northeast Mississippi.
1047 AM EDT Sat Oct 8 2022 A dry cold front will move offshore early today. Canadian high pressure will follow and extend from the mid MS Valley to the Mid- Atlantic through the weekend with much cooler air. In the wake of the front, Canadian high pressure centered over the mid MS Valley will continue to build east into the Carolinas through tonight. Resultant CAA will lead to much cooler temperatures and breezy conditions. Clear skies, a dry airmass, and light winds associated with the high pressure will allow for optimal radiational cooling with temperatures dropping quickly this evening once the sun starts to set. Thicknesses and statistical guidance support a modest increase in temperatures as the high builds overhead.
The region is currently in northwest flow aloft with a cool, high pressure ridge at the surface over southern IL. The high will slowly sag south tonight, keeping parts of east-central IL in a light wind area. Warmer air will push in from the west on Sunday, with highs in the upper 60s to low 70's.