Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Persistent upper level low just off the N Coast will continue to affect Norcal wx for another couple of days. Short wave rotating around the NE quadrant of the upper low is lifting much of the cloud cover Nwd, but water vapor/IR imagery shows the moisture and cloud tops warming as it reaches a deformation/stretching axis. The approaching trof will maintain sufficient onshore flow and pressure gradients and a good Delta Breeze through Thu before it weakens some on Fri and through the weekend. Persistent troffing along the W Coast this weekend will maintain dry and stable SW flow over the region and seasonable temps.
644 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 A large area of high pressure will slowly move across the region today and tonight before exiting off the Mid Atlantic Coast Thursday. Thursday, weak low pressure will move east through the Tennessee Valley as another low moves into the western Great Lakes. Today and tonight high pressure will dominate the region. Thursday the high will drift off the east coast and low pressure will move into the western Great Lakes. Moisture will increase across the region, especially the eastern half of the area through Thursday ahead of the low.
Temperatures will warm slightly across the interior as high pressure strengthens over the Desert Southwest through late week.
1237 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017 100 PM CDT High pressure centered over west central Illinois this afternoon will be in control, continuing the quiet weather conditions as the high shifts slowly east on Wednesday.
Rather large and broad mid/upper level trough in place across North America with a sharp ridge aligned along the Pacific Coast. At the surface, high pressure transits the Ohio Valley from west to east through the period. A frontal boundary draped across the deep south morphs into an inverted trough and shifts northward through the Commonwealth Wednesday. COOP MOS is advertising mid 50s in our cooler valleys tonight. The highest rain chances should be Thursday, as a strong area of low pressures moves by to our south and southeast. Temperatures will generally be below normal for the time of year, with daily highs in the low to mid 80s expected. Nightly lows should be in the low to mid 60s.
Satellite imagery shows the short wave trough from off the Upper Texas coast extending west into the Victoria Crossroads early this morning. This short wave trough will continue to move slowly to the southeast today. Drier air will move into the Victoria Crossroads this afternoon as this short wave trough moves southeast.
306 AM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 High pressure over the Ohio Valley will continue to provide fair weather across our area today and tonight as it moves slowly east. Showers are possible across the area Thursday night as a cold front approaches.
Showers and t-storms east of the upper low will spread slowly into DVL region this morning and gradually thru the fcst area later today/this evening. Upper low associated with Wednesday system moves into northwest WI during day Thursday.
410 AM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 Warm front lifts north across the area through tonight.
then lift north as a warm front as southerly then southwesterly flow increase ahead of a frontal low passing by to the north. cold front will move from north to south across the area during afternoon and evening.
Main forecast challenge for today will be the high temperatures. There is high confidence of 80 degree weather west of highway 83 and temperatures in the low to mid 60s east of highway 183. The in-between parts (highway 283 corridor) will largely depend on if the cold air can get pushed out through the day as well as how far the dry line and warm front makes it east. An area of low pressure will develop in eastern Colorado through the day and start to move south and east for tonight. A strong pressure gradient will develop on the backside of the low along with a cold front. winds will stay strong through the day on Tuesday with the departing low pressure center and then gradually relax after sunset.
Temperatures range from the low to mid 70s, and dew points are in the upper 60s. A zonal upper level pattern, among mid and low level ridging in the western Atlantic will prevail across the Keys today. The Bermuda High will begin to shift to the Central Atlantic Tuesday, persisting mid-week as a new upper level trough swings a cold front through the heart of the country.
As a result, we kept the high wind warning in effect for those areas. With that in mind, we decided to upgrade most of the High Wind Watches to Warnings. Later this evening our attention turns to the strong cold front plowing through the area. The cold front appears like it will have strong pressure rises/subsidence building behind it.
134 AM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 High pressure will build into the region today and provide the North Country with dry weather. A warm front will move up into the region on Tuesday and this feature will increase the chances for precipitation.
658 AM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 Surface ridging anchored over the region maintain dry and stable conditions through this evening. Simply a gradual increase in high cloud with time as higher level moisture advances out ahead of approaching low pressure. For the most part, convection should remain elevated above the strong warm frontal inversion, yielding downpours and small hail as the primary threats. Surface ridging anchored over the region today will maintain generally lighter winds from the south, averaging 15 knots or less. Winds become northeasterly tonight and then strengthen heading into Tuesday as low pressure tracks toward the region.
Quasizonal flow amidst the base of a broad longwave H5 trough highlights the upper pattern across the southeast this morning, while at the surface a cold front slowly slides southward across KY/WV/VA into the TN valley as high pressure builds in behind over the midwest. Guidance favors the front moving along the I40 corridor by that time, however then surging back northward as a warm front as H85 flow backs swly and the aforementioned Midwest surface anticyclone shifts quickly east.
436 AM CDT Mon Apr 2 2018 Freeze warning was expanded southward to include areas that are near and below freezing this morning.
643 AM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 Warm front lifts north across the area through tonight.
630 AM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 Weak high pressure will bring dry conditions today. Showers will return tonight as a warm front brings warmer temperatures. A cold front will sweep through the area Tuesday night bringing a line of thunderstorms and a return of below normal temperatures. High pressure will build in today bringing a brief lull to the precipitation. Temperatures will rise to the mid 40s in West Central Ohio and will warm to the lower 50s in the far south. In response to the digging energy a warm front and isentropic lift begins to develop in Kentucky and lifts north over the entire region. The cold front is forecast to swing through the region Tuesday night.
422 AM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 Weak high pressure will bring dry conditions today. Showers will return tonight as a warm front brings warmer temperatures. A cold front will sweep through the area Tuesday night bringing a line of thunderstorms and a return of below normal temperatures. High pressure will build in today bringing a brief lull to the precipitation. Temperatures will rise to the mid 40s in West Central Ohio and will warm to the lower 50s in the far south. In response to the digging energy a warm front and isentropic lift begins to develop in Kentucky and lifts north over the entire region. The cold front is forecast to swing through the region Tuesday night.
342 AM CDT Mon Apr 2 2018 Warmer conditions as advertised for this morning with temperatures over land zones in the 60s. Marine air temperatures were noted to be in the lower 70s. A warmer day is on tap for the area as southerly winds continue to feed in additional moisture with clouds holding in place. a cold front has stalled across central and northeast Texas this morning.
Dewpoints will drop to the low teens in the western counties, though timing is a little delayed from previous model runs. Temperatures will be around 20 degrees cooler on Tuesday, in the 60s.
Upper level troughing moving across the northern Plains will send a cold front through on Tuesday morning likely a little faster than what models currently depict.
Plan extra time for your commute this morning and use low beam headlights! The overall synoptic pattern will remain fairly stagnant today with zonal flow aloft and high pressure influencing conditions at the surface. Though much of the region will be greeted by fog and low clouds this morning, temperatures will quickly rise into the low to mid 80s for afternoon highs once the morning fog/low stratus mixes out.
In true April fashion, a strong cold front will drop southward on Monday, tightening the pressure gradient across the region and increasing the winds early on in the day. The moisture ahead of and along the cold front dropping down from the northwest is pretty marginal, with most of the moisture that is currently across Idaho and Montana skipping the Rockies and jumping out east of the region into the Midwest. Temperatures will rapidly plummet behind the cold front with H7 temps dropping nearly 15 degrees C across northern CO between midday Monday and early Tuesday morning.
Lows reached the lower teens across far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.
1042 PM PDT Sun Apr 1 2018 A vigorous low pressure system will bring rain and snow to the Idaho Panhandle and the Cascades into Monday.
The cold front is near Lynchburg to the northwest tip of Alabama at this hour, and may only reach just into far north central and northwest AL before stalling around 12Z, then lifting back north. The weak cold front will sink into the forecast area early monday morning without much fanfare, just the possibility of a light shower, an increase in cloud cover and a windshift. Afternoon temps will reach the low to mid 70s.
Some freezing rain with light ice accumulations will also be possible.
Tonight through Tuesday, a strong lee cyclone moves from eastern CO through northern MO and into central IL. This places the forecast area within the strong deformation precipitation axis north of the low. In addition, cloud ice could be lacking at times across portions of northeast IA and southwest WI, resulting in some light freezing rain and a glaze of ice at the surface.
Decreasing cloud coverage, but chilly conditions, expected today with building high pressure. Tuesday will see rain showers and temperatures climbing to above normal with strong warm advection and a warm front lifting north over the area in the morning.
Rain chances will increase further tomorrow ahead of an upper low and associated cold front.
High pressure slides across the northern plains Tuesday for dry but still cold weather.
Cold front has stalled over the Edwards Plateau while continues to drop south across Central Texas early this morning. Otherwise, the low level jet will enable showers to develop underneath the cap today through Tuesday morning, although they should tend to wane this afternoon into evening as the low level jet weakens with heating. An upper level trough currently off the West Coast will move across Texas Tuesday as a dryline moves into the Rio Grande Plains and Edwards Plateau and a cold front moves into Central Texas and the Hill Country. The high PWS could also bring some locally heavy rains, however, cells/line will be faster moving with less training indicated, so the flood risk will be less.
434 AM CDT Mon Apr 2 2018 Latest radar trends are showing an increase in freezing drizzle across parts of northeast Oklahoma over the past hour or so, including in some places to the north of the winter weather advisory. Travel impacts are expected to be minor, but a few slick spots on bridges and overpasses will remain possible. Have cancelled a few counties out of the freeze warning, as temperatures have nudged above freezing in some places.
With stratus expected to persist through the morning hours, temperatures will struggle, with a low chance of freezing drizzle across south and southwestern Missouri into southeastern Kansas beginning in the late morning hours. However, the low level jet will set up, around 40 to 50kts, providing support through the overnight hours.
Steady cold air advection is keeping temperatures well below freezing at the surface and for the most part throughout the entire atmospheric column. Further south of the I-70 corridor soundings have a warm nose slightly warmer than freezing, which is resulting in a wintry mix. This warm nose is resulting in some sleet/snow/freezing rain mix south of I-70.
This is in response to a tightening pressure gradient from an approaching cold front.
Southwesterly downsloping winds will increase to around 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts after the low level inversion breaks by late morning and low cloudiness gives way to clearing skies.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): 500mb ridge just to our south over the Bay of Campeche along with very dry air above 850mb will maintain hot and dry conditions Monday. Temperatures yesterday reached the upper 80s in the Lower RGV to around 100F near Falcon Dam, so highs today were raised several degrees due to persistence and models indicating slightly higher 1000-500mb thickness values this afternoon. The pressure gradient will weaken some as winds shift to the west northwest ahead of a cold front, however, winds could still gust up to 30 MPH across the Rio Grande Valley in the afternoon.
430 AM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 Warm front lifts north across the area through tonight.
526 AM CDT Mon Apr 2 2018 Cold front has shifted to central portion of the cwa, and can be seen a a fine line on shv radar, just nw of radar site. Moderately high low lvl shear appears to peak just prior to this higher LI value and the erasure of a capping inversion so svr potential not yet set in stone.
A strong thermal gradient will move into the area with this cold front so it will be felt.
128 AM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 High pressure over the Southeastern States will weaken Tuesday.
336 AM CDT Mon Apr 2 2018 Cold high pressure was moving across northern Missouri early this morning bringing below freezing temperatures to the region. This high will move east of the area through this morning allowing winds to shift out of the south and aid in bringing warm and moist air back to the Ozarks this afternoon and evening. An isolated severe storm may also be possible, especially as the low level jet noses into the area from 4-10pm this evening. The storm system will be approaching the region around sunrise Tuesday morning with a cold front sliding into eastern Kansas through early morning. The cold front will not take long moving through the area as is should be well east of the Ozarks before the sun sets Tuesday.
431 AM CDT Mon Apr 2 2018 Mid level impulse extends into western ND ahead of approaching trough (currently over northern ID), and combined with 850mb frontogensis max is responsible for development of light to moderate snow upstream from our CWA and this is shown on radar to slowly track eastward.
along with an increase in southerly flow into the area as a lee side trough sets up west with high pressure east. will be going slightly warmer for overnight lows than last night. With the warmer conditions.
416 AM CDT Mon Apr 2 2018 Temperatures have really cooled off behind yesterdays cold front that has settled along the eastern slopes of the higher terrain this morning. A strong cold front will surge south across our area as the trough axis passes.
This front will lift back north as a warm front across our area today. High temperatures will be tricky today, as timing of the warm frontal passage and duration of cloud cover will have important influences. The coolest highs (mid to upper 60s) are expected across the northeastern part of our area into Brown County, where the warm front will take longer to arrive and where solid cloud cover remains. The warmest readings (lower 80s) are expected across the western Concho Valley and western Crockett County, where the warm frontal passage should occur late morning into early afternoon, followed by decreasing cloud cover during the afternoon. For that area, sufficient moisture in the column should still be in place before the low-level flow begins to veer to the southwest overnight. Lows are expected to be generally in the lower 60s.
Monday morning temperatures range from the middle 30s in Northeast Arkansas to the low 50s in Northeast Mississippi. Ahead of the trough, dew points will surge in the low to middle 60s resulting in CAPE values in excess of 1000 j/kg and LI's between -4 and -6C. Highs Tuesday will be in the low to middle 70s across most of the Midsouth.
323 AM PDT Mon Apr 2 2018 A coastal eddy will maintain a deeper marine layer and more extensive cloudiness for coastal and valley areas into Tuesday with most areas cooler today.
/issued 327 PM EDT Sun Apr 1 2018/ REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT: The stationary front across the region is slowly washing out and high pressure will begin to build over the western Atlantic waters tonight. SHORT TERM: High pressure will build in across the region for the start of the week with an easterly breeze. Highs will mainly be in the low to mid 80s and lows in the 60s, except the east coast metro region will be around 70.
For today, a sfc trof will deepen rapidly along the eastern slopes of the Rockies. The overall strongest southwest winds are expected to occur over the western half of the area where the highest terrain is found. The associated strong sfc cold front will blast southward across the OK and TX Panhandles late tonight and early Tuesday morning with strong north winds and sharply cooler temperatures in its wake.
/ISSUED 854 PM CDT Sun Apr 1 2018/ The cold front continues to make slow, but steady, southwards progress toward South Central Texas. NAM and GFS solutions are both trending toward a compromise solution of a cold front entering the Nrn Hill Country and areas on the N/NE side of the Austin Metro area.
Currently near zonal flow continues aloft, with high pressure at the lower/mid levels shifting east. This will begin to transition us to increased southerly flow and moisture at the lower levels to start the week. Expect high temperatures to reach the lower 80s on Monday and mid 80s on Tuesday.
Expect the low cloud cover to envelop all of our TAF sites overnight. A nearly stalled frontal boundary in the far southern part of our forecast area will lift back north as a warm front today. North-northeast winds will veer to the east during the day, and become south-southeast with the warm frontal passage.
412 AM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 The morning surface analysis shows a quasi-stationary boundary remains in the far southeast this morning and an area of high pressure is posted up to our northwest near the interface Iowa, Missouri and Illinois. Did keep at least some slight chances of showers in the far south near the TN/VA border and then late in the day this boundary will begin to lift north as a warm front. The higher wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph will probably reside across the Lake Cumberland and Bluegrass regions. We should see some improvements by this afternoon, but the boundary will lift north as a warm front by Monday afternoon and evening.
A weak trough moving in from the west will bring gusty winds to the area by this afternoon. Another ridge of high pressure will build in from the west the second half of the week with temperatures climbing back to around 10 degrees above average (including potential 90+ from Tucson westward).
506 AM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 High pressure will build across the region today into Tuesday. Low pressure will also track well south of the area today.
Some snow and freezing rain are possible and perhaps a few thunderstorms over southern Lower Michigan. The short term models are in pretty good agreement in moving low pressure from the Plains ENE toward and across southern Lower Michigan. Given the cold temperatures near the ground, some freezing rain is possible at the start but will fade to rain from south to north through Tuesday morning. The farther north you go, the more snow and freezing rain you'll see. Icing may also become an issue early Tuesday north of I-96 due to freezing rain. The low will move east Tuesday night but some wrap around snow showers will be possible during the night.
Given the progression of the warm front, temperatures will continue to vary widely today and will moderate further through the evening and overnight hours in many spots.
cooler temperatures will follow this system before rising through midweek.
With zonal flow aloft, the lee trough will deepen quickly.
High pressure should bring generally dry conditions on Tuesday.
For the most part, convection should remain elevated above the strong warm frontal inversion, yielding downpours and small hail as the primary threats. Surface ridging anchored over the region today will maintain generally lighter winds from the south, averaging 15 knots or less. Winds become northeasterly tonight and then strengthen heading into Tuesday as low pressure tracks toward the region.
With clouds decreasing across the forecast area this afternoon, light winds expected through the night and some fresh snow, temperatures tonight could get a little cooler. Have lowered temperatures in the area with the highest snowfall amounts overnight and this morning. Monday night into Tuesday there will be a cold front that moves through the forecast area Monday night. Behind the cold front there will be gusty north winds that increase during the night, but are strongest during the day Tuesday.
113 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2018 Strong gusty west to northwest winds will usher in chances for snow late tonight mainly north of highway 30 as temperatures fall into the low 30s. 18Z surface analysis has low pressure center over west central Illinois with warm front extending eastward across south central Indiana. Regional radar mosaic showing convection now beginning to fire along the trailing cold front through MO/AR/OK. Water vapor imagery indicating upper trof lagging back in the Dakotas which should create a small window for dry slot to bring a brief break in precip before wrap around moisture in deformation zone moves in after midnight.
339 AM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 Low pressure scoots by to the south of New England today, bringing some clouds to New Hampshire and Maine. High pressure moves across the area tonight, with the next low pressure system moving out of the Plains and into the Great Lakes on Tuesday. As it does so, it will send a warm front northward into New England, bringing a period of snow changing to rain as temperatures warm with the warm front Tuesday night.
/22/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Monday: A cold front continues to stall out as it creeps southward into the Delta, now extending from Pine Bluff AR to Clarksdale to Corinth. The front will stall across the ArkLaMiss Delta overnight, bringing an increase in low cloudiness and perhaps a shower to the far northwest corner of the area, before lifting northward again Monday as a warm front. With warm southerly flow continuing tomorrow, another warm day is anticipated with highs again above normal reaching the low 80s over a good chunk of the area.
The expected cold front continues to advance across the Pacific Northwest, and has begun moving through the forecast area. Cooler temperatures expected today, with values around 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Mountains are more favorable to see snowfall with 2 to 6 inches possible; the higher snow amounts are expected across the West Central and Boise Mountains. Dry conditions expected for Tuesday, with slightly warmer temperatures.
1111 PM MDT Sun Apr 1 2018 Weak upper ridging within deep northwest flow continues across the northern Great Plains. Snow will spread southeastward late Monday into Monday night as a strong cold front pushes through. There is high confidence that the northern half of the CWA will see the higher accumulations, but there is still uncertainty as to how much snow will accumulate Monday and Monday night. A cold front will move into the region Monday morning, with winds shifting north.