Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED GIVEN THE WARMER WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE WINDS WL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ONSHORE LATER TNT INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
VERY MILD AIR OVER THE REGION WITH LOW LAYER TEMPS EVEN WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. IF SOME OF THE SW WINDS CAN MAKE IT DOWN TO THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER. WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR A BIT ABOVE FREEZING ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINOR WITH FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS OVER NW MN.
So expect a dry day with little change in temperatures despite a cold front having moved thru. The higher MAV MOS temps look tough to beat, especially when conditional climo is considered which suggests a 15-20F diurnal rise: upper 50s and lower 60s.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS BROAD RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS WITH TROF ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH LEE TROF STRENGTHENING ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WITH ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WITH LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING FROM SOUTH FL TO OFFSHORE THE NE FL WATERS. SEASONABLY MILD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 70S WILL PREVAIL TODAY. AS WEAK UPPER TROUGHING GIVES WAY TO UPPER RIDGING. WITH THE RIDGING IN PLACE.
/ISSUED 324 AM CST WED DEC 9 2015/ CURRENTLY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS CROSSING THE REGION. A NARROW BAND OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WAS ADVANCING WITH THE TROUGH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND A RETURN TO SOUTH BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR.
EARLY THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT CONTINUED TO MARCH EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. INITIALLY PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS ALL RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING. AS THE CLIPPER PUSHES ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINES WITH DIURNAL COOLING A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW IS LIKELY. THE THREAT OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END BY 12Z THURSDAY.
NOT SURE I CAN BITE ON IT ATTM DUE AND LEFT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE.
/issued 317 AM CST WED DEC 9 2015/ Dry and warm northwesterly flow aloft is expected through tonight behind an upper level trough moving through the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.
The mid-level trough axis that moved into the area yesterday was steadily exiting east of the area early this morning. While models show another mid- level trough developing and tracking across the Northern Plains tonight into Thursday morning, it should remain north of the area and may only produce a few high clouds across northeast Kansas by early Thursday morning. With these southwesterly winds in place through the overnight hours tonight (sustained at 8-10kts) and with the potential for a few high clouds to develop by early Thursday morning, expect warmer conditions for tonight as well with lows only dropping into the low/mid 40s.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED AS WEAK INVERTED TROUGH FROM THE FL STRAITS TO BAHAMAS SHARPENS AND BEGINS TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA.
649 AM EST WED DEC 9 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT.
937 AM EST WED DEC 9 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE FREEZING FOR FRI AFTERNOON. THE GFS HAS HAD BETTER RESULTS WITH ITS WARMER SCENARIO.
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S. WIND ARE CHAOTIC IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE GIVING WAY TO NEARLY UNIFORM WESTERLIES ALOFT. A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS FOUND JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS OF 2 AM. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AND GONE BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH A W/NW WIND BEHIND THE TROUGH. EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
COLD FRONT WITH A DECENT MOISTURE TAP CURRENTLY SITTING ALONG THE COAST AT ABOUT 4 AM MST. EXPECTING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 11 INCHES IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL RACE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL DEEPEN THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. IT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER FOR THURSDAY. STILL SOME MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CARBON COUNTY FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WITH 10-15 KT SW FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS (AS LOW AS 500 FT AGL). HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S.
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL RACE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL DEEPEN THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. IT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER AS WELL. STILL SOME MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CARBON COUNTY FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
614 AM EST WED DEC 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN MOVE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. TODAY WILL LIKELY TURN OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREAS ALTHOUGH SOME CENTRAL LOCATIONS MAY BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A WHILE BEFORE THE LOW CLOUDS CLOSE IN. SOME LIGHT RAIN DOWNEAST AND SNOW NORTH IS POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES. SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENING TOWARD MORNING AND SOME SUPER COOLED MIST OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS VERY EARLY BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION.
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXITING WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. RIDGING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH IS ALREADY DROPPING CIRRUS OVER WESTERN MN. PERHAPS A MID 50 NEAR CANBY ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE. STILL LOOKS TO BE RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 30S WHEN THE RAIN CHANCE ARRIVES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION.
658 AM EST WED DEC 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE NEAR CAPE HATTERAS WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES FROM MONTANA TO MINNESOTA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
700 AM EST WED DEC 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH HAS ALREADY BROUGHT IN DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH HAS DECREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION AS COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS COOLER TEMPS ALOFT LEADING TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM WHICH ALONG WITH MORE HEATING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL GIVEN US BETTER INSTABILITY TODAY.
634 AM EST WED DEC 9 2015 AVIATION A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS.
The GFS along with the MAVMOS guidance were much warmer than the NAM/METMOS and had a pretty good handle on Tuesdays max temperatures. An attendant cold front will push south into western and central Kansas later tonight and early Thursday.
510 AM CST WED DEC 9 2015 A weak surface trof/wind shift line was tracking east across central Illinois early this morning without much in the way of sensible weather. In the wake of the upper wave and attendant surface trof, a weak ridge of high pressure will move across the area today bringing another pleasant day to central Illinois for the second week of December. Forecast soundings suggest afternoon temperatures to rise into the lower 50s north to the upper 50s over west central Illinois. Upper pattern to undergo transition through late week, as significant wave currently near 40N/155W closes off just southwest of British Columbia and digs a long wave trough southward along the Pacific Coast.
WILL SEE THERMAL RIDGE BUILD INTO THE STATE TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM DURING THE DAY WITH PASSAGE OF THERMAL RIDGE AND SUNSHINE ALTHOUGH INCREASING COLD ADVECTION BY AFTERNOON WILL PUT AN OVERALL LIMIT ON READINGS. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING LARGE WESTERN TROF FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
852 AM EST WED DEC 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN MOVE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN DOWNEAST AND SNOW NORTH IS POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES. SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENING TOWARD MORNING AND SOME SUPER COOLED MIST OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS VERY EARLY BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRES CENTER NEAR KOMA WITH A NEARLY DUE EWD STNRY FRONT IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW PRES CENTER ALONG WITH A TRAILING CDFNT XTNDG SWWD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STOIC HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES HELPED KEEP THE LOW PRES CENTER AND ASSOCIATED HVY RAIN S OF THE WFO MPX CWFA THRU THE DAY. AND ALSO RESULTING IN A QUICKER EXIT OF THE RAINFALL THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRES CENTER IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD THIS EVE. AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE W WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR QUICKLY CLEARING SKIES EARLY MRNG FRI THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRI. TEMPS WILL BE COMFORTABLE WHILE STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 70S FOR HIGHS.
939 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINING IS OVER THE WV/MD RIDGES. WHICH WOULD EASILY BE THE HIGHEST VALUES SO FAR THIS YEAR. THE COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH TOWARD AND THROUGH THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
Most of the activity is staying locked on the high terrain.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ONLY SLOWLY PUSH EAST AS AN UPPER TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT PROVIDING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS.
THE REPRIEVE FROM SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AFTER THE COOLDOWN TODAY RESULTING FROM THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WARMER TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
315 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE DAY WILL START OUT QUIET AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE QUICKLY PASSES OVER THE AREA. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATING OVER NORTHWESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA.
ALSO SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF DODGE CITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME LINGERING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS, NORTH OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
403 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITY AT THE TAF SITES WILL NOT INCLUDE CONVECTION IN THIS FORECAST. /ISSUED 358 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015/ AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ERODING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION. ALREADY THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE REGION ARE A SIGN OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AS PRESSURES FALL IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. BUT TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY AND INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
1057 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
321 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 3PM OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST KS.
TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE 80S WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S AFTER MIDNIGHT. RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMING SOUTHEAST.
THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME ASCENT ALOFT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. SHORT TERM UPDATED (OVERNIGHT) - RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS FLORIDA. THE STRENGTHENING LOWER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN SOME INHIBITION AND DRYING THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS FLORIDA HAS RESULTED IN AN ACCELERATING EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS KEYS WATERS. THEN RELAX GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS EASTWARD.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE A DRY AND COOL DAY WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT MORE PREDOMINATE IN THE AFTN AHD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ENTER WRN MANITOBA INTO NW ND FRI AFTN. WILL BRING COLD FRONT EAST INTO DVL REGION, FAR NRN RRV AND FAR NW MN FRI NIGHT WITH CHC OF SHOWER/TSRA ALONG IT.
INCREASING MOIST FETCH OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE EAST WILL BRING MVFR AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A TAP TO DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE BETWEEN A TROUGH OUT WEST AND RIDGING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.
3PM OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST KS.
SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S EAST AND MID TO UPPER 90S WEST.
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER CALIFORNIA. A COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST. 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE RUNNING MUCH WARMER ACROSS ALL INLAND SECTIONS WITH READINGS IN THE 70S AND 80S. ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE DISTRICT ARE COOLER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CALIFORNIA FOR ANOTHER DAY.
757 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER LOW IS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. WITH VERY WEAK AND BRIEF RIDGING MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH AFFECTS THE REGION. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY BETWEEN EXITING HIGH PRESSURE AND APPROACHING CANADIAN LOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
1050 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING BY WITH RAINFALL ON THE NORTH SIDE NEAR THE MID LEVEL FRONT. DEEPER LIFT FORCING HOLDS BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH ELONGATED UPPER TROUGHING PUSHING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY.
401 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING BY WITH RAINFALL ON THE NORTH SIDE NEAR THE MID LEVEL FRONT. DEEPER LIFT FORCING HOLDS BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH ELONGATED UPPER TROUGHING PUSHING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
358 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ERODING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION. ALREADY THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE REGION ARE A SIGN OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AS PRESSURES FALL IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. BUT TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY AND INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
AROUND 10 MPH AND WILL LIKELY SLOW EVEN FURTHER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER. AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE STATE.
COOLER AIRMASS WITH REGION UNDER NNE FLOW WILL PROVIDE COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS THAN IN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FETCH IS NOT VERY STRONG AND RIDGING IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKING WARMER AND A LITTLE MORE HUMID AS WELL. UPPER RIDGE BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND A STRENGTHENING SE-NW RIDGE AXIS. BENEATH THE RIDGE.
Additional storms are anticipated to develop along the cold front and those too are expected to be strong to severe. Lastly a portion of a MCS may work in from the southwest very late tonight along and north of the cold front.
EXPECTING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TOMORROW AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS NUDGED AN UPPER VORT-MAX WEST. THIS UPPER LOW CREATED THE SHRA/TSRA THAT MOVED NORTH OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WEST. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS WEST. HIGH LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN POSITIONED FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TO DEEP INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO RESIDE OVER THE GULF AND WESTWARD TO THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS COAST. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FAVORS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. AREAS PRIMARILY IMPACTED AT THIS TIME WOULD SEEM TO INCLUDE THE LOWER RACCOON AND DES MOINES BASINS AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALLER BASINS IN SOUTHERN IOWA.
A TRANSITIONING UPPER FLOW PATTERN HAS LEFT THE TN VALLEY IN BETWEEN A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND AN ELONGATED TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS WEAKENING RIDGE WITH WEAK UPPER LOW OVER N GULF AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION.
EARLY MORNING VCTS WITH TEMPO MVFR FOR LCH, LFT, AND ARA AS MOISTURE BUILDS AHEAD OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING WEST. INCREASING MOIST FETCH OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE EAST WILL BRING MVFR AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A TAP TO DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE BETWEEN A TROUGH OUT WEST AND RIDGING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.
) DRIER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE BUILDING RIDGE AND DEPARTING TROF SUPRESSED THE CONVECTION IN OUR CWA. PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING INLAND ON FRI WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS TO THE CWA. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE QUITE WARM, STAYING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND THE FOOTHILLS. THE DELTA BREEZE WILL KEEP MORE SOUTHERLY PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY A LITTLE COOLER OVERNIGHT, IN THE 60S.
At least slightly cooler temperatures are expected behind this front in northeast MO on Friday and across northeast MO and west central IL Friday night.
636 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING BY WITH RAINFALL ON THE NORTH SIDE NEAR THE MID LEVEL FRONT. DEEPER LIFT FORCING HOLDS BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH ELONGATED UPPER TROUGHING PUSHING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
HIGH INCREASING MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING CONTINUED SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RAIN SHOULD WIND DOWN NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND EXIT INTO THE GREAT BASIN ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO HIGHER PRESSURE BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
615 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. THE TROUGH AXIS HAD MOVED OVER EASTERN UTAH BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SWINGING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SERVE AS A KICKER TO THE LOW CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO ON FRIDAY.
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT POPS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OFFSHORE.
733 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WESTERN RIDGES OF MD/WV. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE RIDGES WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT THE REST OF THE NIGHT TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND RIDGING WILL OCCUR AT 500 MB. WHICH WOULD EASILY BE THE HIGHEST VALUES SO FAR THIS YEAR. THE COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH TOWARD AND THROUGH THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
Upper trough moving east will increase the upward vertical motion for showers and thunderstorms to develop along the frontal boundary in the afternoon. Highs behind the front will range from the lower to middle 70s.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE WATERS BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA OVER THE COMING DAYS.
250 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2015 High pressure over the Northern Rockies will weaken tonight, with southwesterly flow developing aloft.
/ISSUED 358 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015/ AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ERODING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION. ALREADY THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE REGION ARE A SIGN OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AS PRESSURES FALL IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. BUT TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY AND INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
WE STILL EXPECT A TROUGH TO MOVE IN AND PROVIDE SOME COOLING AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LOW OVER SW CANADA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SE INTO THE AREA ON FRI. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 80S AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON FRI. AND WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER ON SAT.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND.
929 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
1213 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
201 PM PDT THU JUN 11 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND EXIT INTO THE GREAT BASIN ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO HIGHER PRESSURE BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.