Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1228 PM CDT Wed May 31 2017 A series of weak disturbances across MT and WY will drop south along a h700mb warm front draped across Neb. It is possible the cap is too strong relative to the low level instability. A very modest 20 to 30 kt h500mb jet will be in place and the higher K indices in the models appear to be mostly south and west of the forecast area favoring the Neb Panhandle.
A short wave trough is moving overhead, but the main energy will remain to the north, however residual lift could easily support Upper Valley convection this evening, with even some upstream activity working south along the Rio Grande. The high dew points will support overnight low temperatures in the 70 to 75 degree range.
117 PM CDT Wed May 31 2017 The region remains under northwesterly flow aloft, in between a large low pressure centered over Ontario and upper level ridging over the Rockies. At the surface, cool high pressure continues to build south from the Dakotas. Point forecast soundings look fairly dry in the low levels so not expecting much accumulation, if any. Otherwise, a warm front will lift north into the southern CWA by Thursday afternoon which will be the focus for additional thunderstorm activity mainly in our eastern counties.
However, a thunderstorm that realizes more-substantial localized instability will be in an environment that should support threats of hail and damaging wind gusts given the low melting level and considerable environmental DCAPE.
The upper trough over the E Pacific and west coast of the U.
An upper level trough/low will move slowly across Montana and the Canadian Prairies today, tonight, and Saturday. The upper trough moves through Eastern Montana during the day on Saturday keeping light rain going at times. However, rain chances will diminish somewhat in the afternoon as moisture and trough axis moves to the east. Temperatures will remain much cooler than normal. Synoptic Setup: long range begins with a series of progressive sub-synoptic troughs and ridges over the northwestern quarter of the CONUS and western half of Canada. The first trough resides over Saskatchewan and dips into northeast Montana and the Dakotas. The first ridge runs north from Washington into British COlumbia. The second trough lies over the Gulf of Alaska. Saturday Night: Trough will exit northeast Montana clearing light rains and mostly cloudy skies from southwest to northeast.
430 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 The latest surface map features high pressure establishing itself across the central and southern Appalachians. Drier and warmer conditions will be on tap for eastern Kentucky into the start of the weekend, as upper level ridging builds in across the region. High pressure at the surface will remain close by or just off to our northeast, keeping our winds light through the period. Rising heights into Saturday will yield highs back in the lower 80s. In general models depict mean mid level ridging over the lower Ohio Valley through the first half of the extended.
the RUC and HRRR develop scattered convection this morning prior to 12Z in the theta-e axis and within the low level jet across central Kansas which would then move northeast in north central and parts of northeast Kansas this morning. Tonight the upper level trough is forecast to move across the Rockies as a cold front slides southeast and extends from southwest Kansas to northeast Nebraska by 12Z Saturday. COnvection is expected to develop within the theta axis across northeast Kansas within the low level jet. Strong southwesterly low level jet Saturday morning in advance of the approaching upper wave and cold front will provide scattered convection Saturday morning. Model guidance still varies somewhat on the exact position of the approaching cold front with the NAM being the outlier and faster solution.
Fog will likely persist for a few hours after sunrise due to the low sun angle, possibly until 10 am in spots. The rest of the day should be mostly sunny as high pressure centered over OH/western PA extends across the Appalachians, with temperatures close to normal for mid-September.
243 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017 241 AM CDT Benign weather continues under an upper level ridge. JEE 241 AM CDT The ridge dominates the pattern through Saturday leading to another very warm and dry day.
The 500mb map tonight shows troughing across the western United States with a low pressure system over Southern California and the next trough entering the Pacific Northwest. In between across the Central Plains sits a ridge axis. This ridge is what is going to keep South Central Texas dry for the next two days. While the ridge keeps convection at bay in the mid- levels at the surface southerly flow continues to bring moisture into the area. Desipite afternoon high temperatures only reaching into the lower 90s the humidity will make it feel like the mid to upper 90s during the late afternoon hours.
Weak high pressure will hold across the area tonight into the weekend with Jose well off the coast. Jose will be in the western Atlantic this weekend, but high pressure will be over the region.
639 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 High pressure will again grasp the Eastern Great Lakes region with sun filled days, and clear nights. Water Vapor imagery this early morning displays an upper level trough and circulation over CNY and southern New England. At the surface weak high pressure is found just to our west over the Ohio Valley, with the remnant low of Irma now dissipated. There will be little change in the airmass, and with partly to mostly sunny skies, we can once again expect high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, with dewpoints in the lower 60s. Our region will remain in a longwave upper level ridge throughout the period, supporting a generally dry pattern with above normal temperatures.
332 AM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017 A series of weak upper level disturbances moving into the west coast will keep conditions across our area dry and cooler than normal through the weekend. After having convective weather across the district for several days, the associated closed upper low has now traveled to the Rockies. An upper level trof moving through the Pacific Northwest assisted in its departure as it too moves into the Great Basin.
For some areas of the Northern Rockies, such as the Highway 95 corridor in north central Idaho and Kootenai River Country in northwest Montana, may not see much precipitation.
The possible exception will be the low end chance of a couple showers coming onshore from the Gulf and causing brief disruptions overnight, most likely around KPIE or KSRQ.
433 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017 Southwest flow aloft will continue for the duration of the forecast, as mid-level trof persists, supported by a succession of jet streaks arriving from the northeast Pacific. This flow will tap moisture from the Pacific west of Mexico, particularly in light of Tropical Storm Norma, which is progged to drift north, before its remnants become absorbed into the base of the trof.
The rest of the weekend looks high and dry as high pressure builds in the mid levels of the atmosphere.
/Issued 343 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017/ The upper level trough over the Ohio Valley will continue to lift northeastward into New England overnight.
Aside from the warmer temps, RH values will climb into the lower/middle 50s, making it feel a little more humid than the drier air we had in place before Irma's remnants moved across the area.
Mostly sunny skies will allow highs to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s with even warmer temperatures into the weekend.
This storm is looking more like a fall mid latitude cyclone with the strong dynamics and wind. The weekend is shaping up for a sunny start as this system drives out the moisture as it lifts back north toward the higher latitudes. Again Saturday will be cooler than normal behind the front with a feel of fall in the air.
For this afternoon, expected scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area with the highest coverage near ECP, TLH, and VLD. Weak upper level troughing just west of the area will maintain deep moisture with southerly flow across the area today. The highest concentration of activity is expected across the southern and eastern half of the area where the deepest moisture is expected. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s.
This activity should continue to lift north and be primarily elevated over the low level frontal zone through the late evening hours. Main upper trough will move across Wyoming on Saturday, with the associated sfc fropa on Friday aftn/evening. Snow levels will drop to around 10000 ft by Saturday morning, so could see 1-3 inches in the higher peaks of the Sierra Madre and Snowy Ranges. Shower chances will decrease after 18Z Saturday in the wake of the upper trough.
357 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 The latest surface map features high pressure establishing itself across the central and southern Appalachians. Drier and warmer conditions will be on tap for eastern Kentucky into the start of the weekend, as upper level ridging builds in across the region. High pressure at the surface will remain close by or just off to our northeast, keeping our winds light through the period. Rising heights into Saturday will yield highs back in the lower 80s. Conditions will improve to MVFR between 14 and 15z, with VFR prevailing by 18z and thereafter as the lower clouds scatter out.
Have adjusted POPS to extend coverage in those areas trough 03Z. Expect mainly isolated showers during the night hours with morning lows in the low to upper 70s. Maximum temperatures will remain in the lower 90s with a heat index from the upper 90s to lower 100s.
The weekend looks mostly dry, with warm temperatures, as high pressure builds back over the region. The precip will slowly taper off from nw to se through the night as the upper low moves eastward. An upper-level trough will continue to move slowly northeast, as well as gradually weaken/shear out through Friday. On Friday, it may take until mid to late morning for the lower clouds and fog to lift/burn off.
will deepen the desert southwest trough and maintain southwest flow aloft across our region.
A much drier and slightly cooler air mass has spread across northern Arizona in the wake of yesterday's trough passage. The entire forecast period will feature below average temperatures thanks to persistent troughing over the western United States. Despite cooler temperatures, there will plenty of sunshine today into the weekend.
423 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 High pressure will result in mainly dry and warmer weather through the weekend. Following morning clouds and fog, expect a dry day as weak high pressure settles in under the persistent 500mb trough. This will result in mainly dry weather for most of the area, though areas in the higher terrain E-SE of PIT could see an isolated afternoon shower in closer proximity to the weak trough.
357 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017 Pattern shift to (suddenly) deep troughing over the west and southwest flow aloft over the southern high plains for the coming week will allow late season monsoonal moisture flow into the region and up and down thunderstorm consideration. Modest instability and low shear should spell generic storms, though steep remaining lapse rates in the lower atmosphere might lead to a few strong outflow wind gusts. Saturday, heights should build over the Texas coast behind today's ejecting wave into the northern plains and the deeper trough lifting into Alberta.
High pressure will hold across the area into the weekend with Jose well off the coast. Jose will be in the western Atlantic this weekend, but high pressure will be over the region.
240 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017 Longwave trough moves across the northern Rockies through tonight, while southwest flow develops over southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. With the southerly breezes, a pretty mild night is expected with lows upper 60s to near 70 in southeast Kansas and the lower 60s in the eastern Ozarks. Southwest flow aloft will continue through the weekend as the upper trough rotates from the northern Rockies through the northern Plains and into southern Canada.
429 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 High pressure will again grasp the Eastern Great Lakes region with sun filled days, and clear nights. At the surface weak high pressure is found just to our west over the Ohio Valley, with the remnant low of Irma now dissipated. There will be little change in the airmass, and with partly to mostly sunny skies, we can once again expect high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, with dewpoints in the lower 60s. Our region will remain in a longwave upper level ridge throughout the period, supporting a generally dry pattern with above normal temperatures.
313 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017 Southerly winds will pick up today ahead of a weak cold front.
341 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017 General upper level troughiness continued over Southeast Texas early this morning.
349 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017 An upper ridge will build across the area today ahead of a developing low pressure system over the plains. Overnight lows should be a few degrees warmer than last night due to increasing low-level moisture and persistent southerly flow. To the west, cyclogenesis continues just lee of the Rockies as an upper trof traverses the Rockies. As such, have trended temps with the warmer guidance, some 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal average. With sly to swly flow thru the lower levels, do not anticipate the fnt being pushed very far into the CWA as suggested by some prev mdl cycles.
VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours with high pressure in control. High pressure and dry air overhead will limit cloud cover and precipitation chances the next 24 hours. /issued 245 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night):Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will continue to be influenced by 500 mb high pressure, initially over northwestern and northern Mexico, and then building west from the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
116 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 High pressure will result in mainly dry and warmer weather through the weekend. Following morning clouds and fog, expect a dry day as weak high pressure settles in under the persistent 500mb trough. This will result in mainly dry weather for most of the area, though areas in the higher terrain E-SE of PIT could see an isolated afternoon shower in closer proximity to the weak trough.
An area of low pressure is currently located over south central SD with a cold front just north of Watertown. The main upper level trough is located over the desert southwest. This trough will lift northward tonight which will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms for locations along and west of the Missouri Valley by Friday morning. If the dry slot does develop and skies clear off, then highs in our eastern CWA will be warmer than expected. All the preferred models are indicating a negative PNA pattern across the conus, meaning west conus troffing, with east conus mid level ridging.
Surface winds are light and out of the southeast with temperatures in the lower 80s. Low chances of rain will continue over the western waters tonight but not expecting much more than that with little to no upward forcing as weak high pressure remains situated near the region. Lows tonight will be persistent, in the lower 80s with perhaps some upper 70s along the Upper Keys.
Deep upper level trough over the Northern Rocky Mountains today will bring rain to the central mountains of Idaho and breezy conditions across the forecast area. The upper level trough shifts east Saturday morning followed by a weak upper level ridge for Saturday afternoon.
355 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 High pressure will drift slowly eastward across the central Great Lakes today. This high should shift to the New England States by Saturday night.
Weak high pressure will linger across the region Friday and persist through the weekend. The mid-upper level low (and low level remnants of Irma) have progressed ENE to central KY, with a trailing vorticity tail extending southward into eastern TN and northern GA. The higher POP should remain in the west or closer to the incoming DPVA in an otherwise broad SW flow.
For this afternoon, expected scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with the highest coverage near ECP, TLH, and VLD. An upper lever trough over the western Gulf of Mexico will slowly deamplify as it lifts northeastward through the period. Temperatures will be a little above average, with lows in the lower 70s and highs in the upper 80s.
138 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 High pressure will result in mainly dry and warmer weather through the weekend. Following morning clouds and fog, expect a dry day as weak high pressure settles in under the persistent 500mb trough. This will result in mainly dry weather for most of the area, though areas in the higher terrain E-SE of PIT could see an isolated afternoon shower in closer proximity to the weak trough.
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 High pressure will again grasp the Eastern Great Lakes region with sun filled days, and clear nights. Ridging starts to build across the region Friday, with just enough lingering low-level moisture to pop a few isolated showers across the inland higher terrain. The one exception might be a stray afternoon shower well inland/over the higher terrain toward the PA border and/or near the Western Finger Lakes region.
628 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 High pressure will drift slowly eastward across the central Great Lakes today. This high should shift to the New England States by Saturday night.
Under high pressure, predominant VFR expected through much of the night and into the day Friday outside areas that experience BR/FG. Anyway, in more technical terms, upper ridging will set up and will be centered over the western Gulf of Mexico initially, which should suppress any convection.
Inverted trough(tropical wave) taking up a good bit of the southeastern gulf. This starts by about mid week as the first of several large lobes of energy is transported into the base of the upper trough on the west coast causing it to dig and expand west-east on each successive transport. The large scale Rossby wave that develops late in the forecast may affect our area eventually with a cold front but that would be well outside this fcasts temporal domain. Ridge of high pressure will build just to the east of the coastal waters through the forecast period.
1235 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017 The surface front/trough is sitting off to the northwest of the forecast area over northern/west-central Nebraska. Winds will really increase during the day tomorrow as lee troughing deepens.
Upper level trough continues to move slowly east toward the Idaho border this evening. The trough has brought in a cooler airmass and lows tonight will be in the upper 30s and 40s.
258 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2017 Low pressure, located just off the coast of the Carolinas early this morning, will track northward today, paralleling the coastline.
Also behind the trof axis. afternoon temperatures in the lower 40s are forecast for these locations.
For tonight, a cold front/wind shift will pass by the area. Even so, slightly warmer weather is expected with temperatures near average for Saturday afternoon. Much warmer weather is expected for Sunday with westerly, downslope low-level flow.
255 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017 The persistent upper level pattern of ridging across the western CONUS and troughing across the Great lakes and Ohio River Valley will continue to prevail through the entirety of the forecast period.
327 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017 An upper level trough and front are pushing through the region early this morning. A colder air mass will spread over the region again today behind the front, as highs range from the middle 30s across central Missouri to the lower 40s across southeastern Kansas and far southern Missouri.
Low clouds and fog persist across many locations and a freezing fog advisory remains in effect for portions of the region except for the higher elevations. A strong high pressure system over the western united states is responsible for creating an inversion trapping pollutants in this areas as well. Minor changes were performed to overnight temps as they fall below freezing and even colder across the higher elevations dropping into the teens and single digits.
After another cool morning, sunny skies and high pressure aloft will result in temperatures warming to above normal levels today and Sunday.
1025 PM MST Fri Dec 8 2017 The High Wind Warning and Red Flag Warning have been allowed to expire. Amplified ridge-trough pattern remains in place across the CONUS, with north-northwest flow over our CWA. the region will see amplified H5/H7 ridging over the western portion of the country. w/ a cutoff upper low/trough combo over the east.
High wind gusts appear to be over and plan to take down the high wind warning with the afternoon package. Saturday will be a few degrees warmer and less windy as the western U. upper ridge expands eastward. Warm and dry weather remains in the offing through the weekend with generally weak west to northwest flow aloft, as high amplitude upper level ridging continues to build into the Great Basin. Warming aloft and the downslope flow will keep temperatures above seasonal levels, with highs on Sunday in the mid 50s to mid 60s across the lower elevations, in 40s and 50s across the higher terrain, and mainly in the 30s at the peaks.
/issued 223 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017/ (Tonight and tomorrow) The upper level trough will continue to push away from West Texas tonight. Our area will sit at the base of an upper level ridge centered over the West Coast. At the surface a leeside trough will help tighten the pressure gradient across the area tomorrow. Expect the slow and gradual warming trend to continue, with temperatures warming into the low 60s for highs.
Will see some brief clearing ahead of the next upper trough that will dig into the area late today/early tonight, along with a reinforcing shot of colder air. It will also be quite cold along with significant wind, so wind chill values in the higher terrain may dip below zero in some spots.
With snow cover in the high mountain valleys of North Park and Middle Park, inversions should strengthen these days so will lower temps a few more degrees tonight and Saturday. A large 585 DM high remains over the western CONUS with strong NW flow plunging down the east side of the ridge over Colorado.
1128 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017 The CONUS is locked in a blocking pattern with UL ridging dominating over CA and into the Intermountain West, and troughing over the Great Lakes and into the East Coast. A gradient will setup across the forecast area tomorrow, with highs struggling to exceed the freezing mark in NE MO and low 40s dominating to the south and west of the KC area.
325 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017 Still a few snow shower bands showing up on radar, but overall a decrease in shower activity as weak high pressure builds today. High pressure builds again on Sunday for another break between short waves.
The east coast trough remains in place this morning with high pressure at the surface stretching from the Rockies to the gulf. Canadian high pressure will remain in place and the northwest flow aloft will keep the dry airmass over the region, so after the past few dreary days expect to see plenty of sun.
A big ridge will be in place out west with a deep trough over the eastern states, allowing bursts of cold air to come down into Mid TN. Early this morning, it was quite cold with temps in the low to mid 20s. High elevations of the Upper Cumberland could have a light dusting of snow in the afternoon, but with only scattered coverage and above freezing temperatures, no measurable snow accumulation is expected.
1016 PM MST Fri Dec 8 2017 Strong upper ridging persists across the western CONUS with deep upper trough across the eastern half of the country. Upper ridging over the next several days will move very little. However warmer temps are still progged to push into the region through Saturday and Sunday.
/ISSUED 941 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017/ Clear skies and light winds overnight will allow for widespread freezing temperatures to occur across SE TX.