Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Sfc analysis shows the cold front moving toward the MO bootheel. This cold front is still expected to reach our far northwestern areas around 3 am. Temperature wise, looks like cooler air will infiltrate our northwestern areas toward sunrise. Cold front approaching the region will increase chances for showers at all terminals overnight into the mid morning hours.
A weak cold front will move across the area later tonight and Wednesday bringing a wind shift and gradually improving conditions. Until then, a mix of IFR and LIFR conditions wl prevail through 14Z with MVFR cigs expected to prevail after 14Z until improving in the wake of the cold front. This afternoon, a cold front extended from near Fort Smith AR to Tyler TX to San Antonio and was making slow but steady progress eastward.
That being said, rain bands associated with Eta are moving west to east across the far western waters and approaching the Lower Keys. Due to the gradient between Eta and a sprawling high pressure over the western Atlantic, strong winds extend well outside of the immediate radius of Eta. As Eta lifts northward over the next 24 to 36 hours, the gradient between Eta and the strong high pressure over the western Atlantic will relax.
150 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2020 More autumn like weather is on tap across the region today, in the wake of a strong cold front which passed yesterday evening.
244 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2020 A cold front just passed through Memphis over the past hour, noted by a sharp northwest wind shift and a signification dewpoint drop. Dry air and much cooler temperatures will build in this afternoon. The large longwave trough over the Central U.
616 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 Aviation - Much cooler today - Wet for the weekend -- Much cooler today -- If you stepped outside lately, you've likely noticed that the late summer-like weather is long gone! A strong cold front passed over Lower Michigan a few hours ago ushering the 70 degree weather to the east. Strong west winds gusting over 40 mph are pushing much cooler air across the region.
We start the early morning hours with some dense fog, generally within a corridor a couple counties either side of I-29 with subtle upslope flow up the Buffalo Ridge. The high temperature forecast features a battle between favorable southwest/west flow for warming vs a fresh snowpack in many areas. Surface cold front swings thru Wednesday night with the mid level boundary lagging a bit behind. Thursday's high temperatures will struggle to climb above freezing with a fresh bout of CAA.
427 AM MST Wed Nov 11 2020 Current surface map places low across northwest North Dakota with trof/warm front into central South Dakota.
A cold front has exited our far southeast counties, and a couple of lines of post frontal showers continue to move across the PAH forecast area.
312 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2020 A cold front has exited our far southeast counties, and a couple of lines of post frontal showers continue to move across the PAH forecast area.
As the main upper trough slides east into the Midwest, a ridge will build across the Pacific NW and extend into eastern Montana for the second half of the week.
Partly cloudy skies and warm conditions are expected today with highs generally ranging in the low to mid 80s. Lows will dip into the lower 60s.
Tonight, a Canadian cold front, currently moving through srn Alberta and Saskatchewan, will move into nrn Nebraska. The model consensus suggests the cold front and the disturbance across Idaho might set off a few isolated rain or snow showers. The forecast used the warmer short term model blend but cloud cover could easily hold lows to around 30 if they persist during the entire night time cooling period. The cold front should drop high temperatures back into the 30s and 40s Thursday. The high pressure will move overhead supporting generally clear skies.
The upper level trough over the northern Rockies will bring snow back into northern Utah today.
556 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 A cold front will move through the region this morning, bringing rain to the area. Behind the front, high pressure will move over the Ohio Valley for the rest of the week, providing cooler and drier conditions. A big change to the weather in the middle Ohio Valley is occurring as of this writing, with a cold front moving eastward into the area, bringing an end to the warm southerly flow that has persisted for the last several days. Cold advection will be present behind the cold front, and there should be a relatively significant pressure gradient. With high pressure over the region tonight and tomorrow, dry conditions are expected.
An upper level low pressure system crossing the northern Rockies will remain far to our north. Modest low level southerly flow will continue overnight with temperatures a tad milder than this morning, though we sided slightly toward the cooler guidance. Late in the day a backdoor cold front will drop into the area courtesy of a passing trough in the Midwest. The cooler air behind the front will move into the region overnight Thursday dropping lows into the 30s and 40s.
/Issued 325 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020/ Today will be the wettest day of the week as an incoming cold front interacts with deep tropical moisture. Coverage will increase through the day, particularly by this afternoon and evening as the aforementioned cold front pushes into the forecast area. A nice break in the wake of ETA with high pressure building in over the Ohio Valley with ridging through the deep south including the local area.
Any lingering snow will quickly end this morning as skies clear with high pressure passing to the south. Aside from an increase in clouds mainly over northeastern Minnesota, only a few light snow showers are expected north of the Iron Range this afternoon and then lingering into tonight as the low moves to just north of Thunder Bay by daybreak Thursday. The cold front associated with this low will pass through during the day and evening Thursday as better upper level energy rounds the base of a trough moving through. Cold air aloft will keep this as a rain/snow event with no freezing rain or sleet currently expected. Snowfall with the cold front of up to 1 to 2 inches will be possible.
The strengthening has allowed winds to freshen significantly across the western half of our area with the Lower Keys seeing the strongest winds of all our land locations (with the exception of the Dry Tortugas, where there are currently no observations, unfortunately). A Wind Advisory is now in effect for the Lower Keys for sustained winds near 30 mph with wind gusts up to 40 mph, while the Middle and Upper Keys are seeing winds closer to 20 mph farther from the circulation of Eta. Rain chances will remain elevated, particularly for the Lower Keys, where high-resolution convective allowing model (CAM) guidance indicates convergent banding will continue to occur on the far southeastern periphery of Eta's circulation.
/issued 244 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2020/ A cold front just passed through Memphis over the past hour, noted by a sharp northwest wind shift and a signification dewpoint drop. Dry air and much cooler temperatures will build in this afternoon. The large longwave trough over the Central U.
328 AM MST Wed Nov 11 2020 Split trough was moving through the area this morning, with clouds on the increase. As this trough works through, a cold front will move in and shift winds to the north and northwest. The cold front will provide a colder day compared to yesterday, with highs struggling to get above freezing. The high country will see an additional 2-4 inches on top of what has fallen overnight. Tonight and Thursday will have ridging move back in, so snow will come to a conclusion.
High pressure is building in across the central plains so we will maintain mostly sunny skies today, but temperatures will be running a few degrees below normal. Overnight, cloud cover will move in from the southwest and a 500mb trough will provide ample energy for the development of some precip by early Thursday. Anticipating amounts to be around an inch or less for most locales, with western Wisconsin seeing more of a rain/snow mix as temperatures will be slightly warmer.
224 AM MST Wed Nov 11 2020 Current surface map places low across northwest North Dakota with trof/warm front into central South Dakota.
515 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2020 More autumn like weather is on tap across the region today, in the wake of a strong cold front which passed yesterday evening. Skies are expected to clear over the region this morning, as high pressure builds east into central Illinois. Autumn has decided to make a return, as temperatures have fallen quickly behind the recent cold front. Despite plenty of afternoon sunshine, highs should only reach around 50 degrees over a large part of the forecast area, and a bit warmer south of I-70. Winds will gradually diminish as high pressure builds into central Illinois by late afternoon, and skies will generally be clear overnight aside from a few high clouds.
High pressure was building over the area early this morning as the system that brought the rain and severe weather moved off to the east. Today, dry and rather quiet weather is expected today as the high pressure continues to build over the area.
High temperatures today will only reach the mid 50s under clear skies as high pressure will remain in place.
/Issued 301 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2020/ Cold start this morning with temperatures falling below freezing across portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Another cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma Thursday afternoon with increasing clouds.
Our record-breaking warmth streak will take a break today, as a cold front currently is making a steady march eastward across the region. Then high pressure will build into the region. However for points staying under the cloud cover, like the Lake Cumberland and I- 75 counties, the highs today likely will be this morning. That high pressure will stay to our north tonight, keeping us with a steady north wind and allowing lows to fall to the upper 30s to low 40s for most locations. High pressure will be in place across the upper Ohio Valley to start off Thursday morning.
East of the Divide, mainly dry conditions are expected, except this afternoon into early evening as a cold front pulls south into northern Wyoming with some light snow possible. A transitory ridge is expected Thursday with dry, but continued cold temperatures.
Today's high temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees warmer compared to yesterday, but will remain below normal for this time of year.
Ensemble forecasts are in decent agreement with 1 inch snowfall amounts or less in the Lower Snake Plain and Eastern Magic Valley areas with 1 or 2 inches possible in the Upper Snake Plain areas.
Broad mid-level ascent provided by a 500 mb vort max and surface ascent provided by a cold front should be enough to create some light snow across much of northern North Dakota today. Some mid-level dry air may take a bit to saturate, thus leading to a brief period of light freezing rain/drizzle. After the cold front surges through this afternoon cyclonic flow aloft could continue to produce light snow/flurries through the night across northern North Dakota. Additionally, the west/northwest winds will bring in a cooler boundary-layer airmass which could spark some lake-effect snow. Mean upper-level flow over the next five days or so should be zonal, with a transitory upper-level ridge at week's end.
Weak low-level warm air advection today will bring high temperatures into the 40's to low 50's in our southern areas with temps struggling to get above freezing across the snowpack in northeast Nebraska.
Clear skies and dry conditions will then persist into tonight with surface winds becoming light southeasterly behind that departing high pressure. We saw no reason to stray from NBM numbers with most areas falling into the lower to middle 30s. A cold front will be reflected at the surface and will push southeast across the Missouri Ozarks from late Thursday into Thursday evening. Forecast soundings indicate that the atmosphere will be very dry with the approach of the front and short wave, however there will be quite a bit of lift present in the lower and middle troposphere.
The cold front has slowed down considerably over the past two hours and is now located along a line from Decatur, Tennessee southwest through Bolivar and back through Oxford, Mississippi. /issued 244 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2020/ A cold front just passed through Memphis over the past hour, noted by a sharp northwest wind shift and a signification dewpoint drop. Dry air and much cooler temperatures will build in this afternoon. The large longwave trough over the Central U.
301 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2020 Cold start this morning with temperatures falling below freezing across portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Another cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma Thursday afternoon with increasing clouds.
Daytime temperatures for elevations above 2500 feet will once again struggle to warm above freezing today. Relatively dry high pressure will briefly develop over the Northern Rockies on Thursday, with valley temperature inversions expected to develop.
Some patchy frost is possible over northwest AR this morning where temps are in the low/mid 30s and winds are light. By Thursday afternoon, winds will become increasingly southerly as surface ridging moves east and another front approaches from the northwest.
1027 AM MST Wed Nov 11 2020 Current surface map places low across northwest North Dakota with trof/warm front into central South Dakota.
The synoptic pattern is highlighted by a broad trough over the central and western CONUS with a ridge along the east coast. The cold front has moved well south of the area this afternoon with associated light rain showers ending across the CWA.
Low level moisture will increase across the eastern CWA tonight and we could see low clouds develop over the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern Permian Basin by daybreak. Meanwhile, an upper trof passing through the Central Plains will send a cold front swd late tomorrow night.
Lows will be much warmer, dropping into the mid 40s to lower 50s as opposed to the mid 30s that were seen in some locations this morning.
332 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Weak front to move through the area Thursday night - Stronger system expected over the weekend - Temperatures mostly back to reality for the next 7 days -- Weak front to move through the area Thursday night -- Clouds will clear this evening as temperatures warm in the lowest 5,000ft. A weak cold front will approach the area Thursday night and increase moisture below 5,000ft.
223 AM MDT Wed Sep 22 2021 Water vapor shows large ridge over the western/central CONUS with trof just offshore the Pac NW. At the surface, broad trof stretches from the Rocky Mountain Front through the Northern Plains. Warm advection will continue today with thermal ridge axis pushing into northeast WY. Very warm/dry conditions expected with highs general in the low to mid 80s, 70s in the Black Hills.
Temperatures are dropping into the upper 40s/low 50s over the plains and into the upper 30s/low 40s over the higher elevations. It's another quiet weather day across Colorado as the deep low pressure trough exits to the east. That trough has left cooler temperatures in its wake, with the thermometer remaining in the 60's for the plains where current temperatures are running 2 to 7 degrees cooler than this time yesterday.
233 AM MDT Wed Sep 22 2021 A mid/upper level ridge will be in place across the region today resulting in dry conditions and high temperatures about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Despite the ridging and a weak surface pressure gradient, there appears to be enough wind at 700mb combined with a very dry air mass to support red flag conditions mainly from Evanston through Sweetwater County, northeast to Casper. Satellite imagery early this morning shows a trough approaching the Pacific Northwest/N.
We can also see the line of showers and thunderstorms along the main cold front sweeping through the mid to lower MS river valley. The models show this front exiting the GA/SC coast just after sunset Wed evening with a much cooler/drier airmass moving in behind it. Low temps will dip down into the lower 50s to near 60s across the CWA Thu morning, with some middle 40s in the NE GA mountains. High pressure builds in at the surface behind the cold front and continues to strengthen as the closed low over the Great Lakes is shunted off to the north and east. Overnight lows in the upper 40s aren't out of the question for far northeastern Georgia over the next several days, with the rest of the CWA solidly in the low to mid 50s.
Near the surface, high pressure extends from western Nebraska southward into eastern Colorado and western Kansas. Gusty north winds up to 20-30 mph will subside towards the evening hours becoming less than 10mph after sunset with radiational cooling and clearing skies as high pressure builds in across the high plains.
Currently, the upper trough axis is swinging through the forecast area, behind yesterday's cold front. Have stayed on the cooler side of guidance, given the low dewpoints and favorable radiational cooling conditions. A bit of additional CAA should keep afternoon temperatures a few degrees cooler than today.
456 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021 A line of thunderstorms is likely this afternoon with the passage of a cold front. A trough near the Midwest will continue to deepen and quickly dig eastward later today. A surface cold front, ahead of the occluding system will also cross this afternoon and exit into central PA by late evening.
With light winds, clear skies, and low dewpoints, the low temperatures for tonight will likely be the coldest of the season so far. Tomorrow, dry and mostly sunny conditions continue as the area sits under a bit of ridging aloft and inbetween high and low pressure.
A cold front also extended from eastern MI southwest into northwestern LA. Some mainly light post-frontal rain or drizzle can be expected tonight across southeast MO and southwest IL with upper level divergence in this area ahead of the upper level trough as it shifts eastward through our area. Light rain may linger in parts of southwest Illinois on Wednesday in an area of deformation as an upper level low develops in the base of the trough. The sky will be mostly clear, the wind will diminish, and the surface dew points will be quite low in the lower to mid 40s.
The ridge axis will shift into eastern Oklahoma this evening and overnight.
Much cooler for the next couple of days, then warming 3. The cold front that brought overnight/morning precip is well SE of the area this afternoon, resulting in clearing skies from NW to SE. The forecast will be dry and much cooler through Wednesday.
305 AM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021 High pressure dominates the surface weather pattern today between two regions of upper-level lower heights. An upstream ridge makes an attempt at building into tonight, while getting squeezed between upper-level disturbances. Calm winds and clear skies tonight will allow temperatures to reach the low 40s to low 30s in our typical cold spots.
111 AM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021 Updated for 06Z aviation discussion 06Z TAF discussion: A mix of of conditions will be observed through 09Z as a cold front continues moving through the area. /86/ Prior discussion below: Through Wednesday: A cold front will be pushing through the region tonight with showers and thunderstorms expected along and ahead of this system. High pressure will begin building in across the region Wednesday with dry weather expected. Highs Wednesday will be cooler, ranging from the middle to upper 70s.
Clouds will be on the increase later today as a cold front approaches the Northern Rockies. The forecast models clearly show significant latitudinal (north- south) stretching of the parent upper level low pressure trough and suggest it will ultimately break it into two troughs.
There is one upper level trough off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, while another trough sits over the Mississippi River Valley. Between these two features a ridge builds over the intermountain West. High pressure leading to clear skies over the region should allow radiational cooling to bring this morning's low temperatures into the upper 30s to low 40s in the forecast area. Some cloud cover may develop as well, slowing radiational cooling and keeping temperatures warmer too.
Tomorrow looks to be slightly warmer and continue dry. Temperatures will cool again tonight, but current thinking is lows overall will be a little warmer than this morning's due to winds gaining more of a southerly component (although winds will be light). Under the influence of upper level ridging, Wednesday is expected to be warmer with highs ranging from the lower 70s east to near 80 west. Warmer temperatures also mean lower relative humidity, with minimum humidity values expected to dip into the upper teens to low 20s across much of western into central North Dakota Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will trend cooler through the end of the work week as an upper level low looks to drop southeastward out of Canada and into the Great Lakes region, swinging a cold front through the northern Plains.
A cold front moves through the area this morning and early afternoon, with showers and possibly embedded thunderstorms. Discussion: A cold front will pass through the area from west to east this morning.
On Wednesday, a closed low will be centered over the Ohio/Tennessee River valley. This low will be close enough that it may help generate at least a scattered deck of instability clouds. Elsewhere, ridging will be building into the area. High temperatures will be in the lowers and mid 60s. This is 5 to 10 degrees cooler than normal.
(Today and tonight) High pressure will begin to build back over the area today, kicking off the gradual warming trend to come over the next few days. However, for today and tonight, the cooler airmass will remain in place over the area through tonight and will keep daytime temperatures in the 80s and overnight lows in the upper 50s to 60s. Had to adjust overnight/morning lows slightly warmer today given the slower than expected cooling we have seeing during the overnight period. Lows in the lower to mid 50s are expected, but low lying or protected areas are likely to fall into the 40s.
There is still some disagreement in the models in how fast the upper trough will push out of the area, and that will determine how quickly the precipitation will come to an end.
/Issued 758 PM CDT Tue Sep 21 2021/ A broad surface anticyclone over the central Rockies and Plains will continue to gradually build into the region thru Wednesday. Dry air continues to filter into the area this evening behind the passage of the cold front last night. Gusty northerly winds, as well as much lower temperatures and dew points, are prevailing this afternoon in the wake of last night's cold frontal passage.
Thunderstorms are likely tomorrow with an approaching cold front. Showers will continue, primarily east of Pittsburgh, as deep moisture convergence resides over the ridges. Warm, moist air will ahead of a cold front will keep temperatures above the climatological average. A trough near the Midwest will continue to deepen and dig eastward into Wednesday as the warm moist southwest flow strengthens. A surface cold front, ahead of the occluding system will also cross the region Wednesday afternoon and evening.
222 AM MDT Wed Sep 22 2021 Warmer temperatures today with an upper ridge axis sliding over top of the area. Temperatures will rise into the lower 80s with dry air (humidities falling into the teens). A fast moving shotwave trough will move in late tonight and weaken as it encounters the strong ridge in place.
Temperatures will fall into the lower 60s and upper 50s with dew point observations already reaching the upper 40s (according to the Oklahoma Mesonet) and lower 50s in our far northern zones.