Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As the cold front associated with this system passes, a trace to half inch snow may accumulate on roads creating slick roadways. Light snow showers and flurries are expected to continue through Thanksgiving day as northwest flow sets up with a building ridge of high pressure to our west.
326 PM CST Tue Nov 24 2020 Light snow and freezing drizzle will continue to move out of the region this evening leading to a quiet but cloudy day Wednesday. Sufficient ice aloft and just cool enough temperatures have allowed most of the region to stay in a predominant snow precipitation type, with drizzle or freezing drizzle at times mixing in when ice crystal loss becomes sufficient enough. Temperatures will fall below freezing overnight and with wet roads there could be a risk for slick surfaces and black ice tonight. A 300 mb ridge will provide the area with weak high pressure into Wednesday but will stay cloudy for the most part.
749 PM EST Tue Nov 24 2020 High pressure over the region will move off the coast tonight.
837 PM EST Tue Nov 24 2020 High pressure over the region will move off the coast tonight.
Upper trough axis enters the Panhandle region this afternoon as broad mid to low level moisture advects northeast along and ahead of it. Expectations for this afternoon and evening are mostly the same in terms of rain showers expanding and spreading northeastward as the upper trough axis matures over southern Kansas. The cold front swiftly translates southeast across northeast Kansas overnight, bringing most of the precip to an end by Wednesday morning. Concern for accumulating snow is less than previous forecast given the overall short term models trending further south and east with the deformation zone axis, closer to areas where temps remain above freezing for a longer period. There is also some uncertainty on how quickly freezing temps reach the CWA as most of the short term guidance drops to freezing as precip is ending, with the exception of the NAM.
Zonal flow over the Upr OH will back to the southwest tonight as cutoff low pressure emerges from the Plains and amplifies ridging ovr the ern seaboard. As mentioned above, southern stream low pressure is projected to dig toward the southern Great Lakes through Wednesday.
432 PM MST Tue Nov 24 2020 Last night's system has propagated east of the Divide with the center of the low circulating over southeast Colorado early this afternoon. Quick ridge of high pressure slides overhead on Wednesday, providing a break in precipitation between systems. Though, by Wednesday afternoon, the next PacNW trough will already be digging into the western CONUS and push the ridge axis east of the Divide. A low pressure trough will barrel through the Intermountain West and northern Rockies, but lose steam as it arrives on the western slope as a positively tilted trough. The trough looks to open up with an associated cold front moving through Thanksgiving Day.
530 PM CST Tue Nov 24 2020 Light snow and freezing drizzle will continue to move out of the region this evening leading to a quiet but cloudy day Wednesday. Sufficient ice aloft and just cool enough temperatures have allowed most of the region to stay in a predominant snow precipitation type, with drizzle or freezing drizzle at times mixing in when ice crystal loss becomes sufficient enough. Temperatures will fall below freezing overnight and with wet roads there could be a risk for slick surfaces and black ice tonight. A 300 mb ridge will provide the area with weak high pressure into Wednesday but will stay cloudy for the most part.
After the upper-level trough brings in more low clouds by Wednesday afternoon and evening, the model consensus seems to pick up on the chances for some scattered precipitation, especially through Garfield, McCone, Prairie, and Roosevelt Counties.
1259 AM EST Wed Nov 25 2020 Rain will move into the area today and continue into early Thursday before the passage of a cold front. Southern stream low pressure will dig toward the Great Lakes today.
Breezy west to northwest winds are likely in the afternoon and evening associated with the cold front, as well. Cold front approaching the northwest coast will bring light snow to our CWA early Wednesday. After that temperatures will be above freezing and roads will become wet.
TWH Upper level ridge is allowing for lee side pressure falls and increasing SW-W winds along the foothills today. Otherwise, aforementioned ridge will keep our cwa dry through tonight. Trof approaching the PacNW coast will move thru the northern Rockies and give us a chance of rain/snow showers from late Wednesday morning thru the evening. A trough will move over the area on Thursday that will align the gradient to bring windy conditions to the gap and foothill areas.
113 AM EST Wed Nov 25 2020 High pressure will prevail through Wednesday. A cold front will stall over the area Thursday.
(09Z Today through Wednesday) Morning lows are expected to remain above freezing for the entire forecast area, though flurries to light snow mixed in with any passing light showers cannot be ruled out for our northern tier of counties this morning between 5AM-7AM. While temps are not forecast to hit below freezing, evaporative cooling cannot be ruled out to cool temps enough for frozen precip to develop.
Lower clouds haven't spread into the area yet, so should see a little more cooling, but thinking it will be warmer than expected.
Upper level high pressure over south Florida and the Florida Straits will remain quasi-stationary through tonight, and southwesterly flow aloft will prevail over the area. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move across Missouri this morning and then into the Ohio Valley tonight, with a cold front stretching to the southwest and slowing down as it moves across the Tennessee Valley and into the Southeast late tonight. Low level moisture will increase tonight across southeast Georgia and into portions of northeast Florida ahead of the stalling cold front. Overnight lows will be mild, with temperatures near 60 to the lower 60s across the interior, and the mid 60s at the coast.
1053 PM MST Tue Nov 24 2020 Last night's system has propagated east of the Divide with the center of the low circulating over southeast Colorado early this afternoon. Quick ridge of high pressure slides overhead on Wednesday, providing a break in precipitation between systems. Though, by Wednesday afternoon, the next PacNW trough will already be digging into the western CONUS and push the ridge axis east of the Divide. A low pressure trough will barrel through the Intermountain West and northern Rockies, but lose steam as it arrives on the western slope as a positively tilted trough. The trough looks to open up with an associated cold front moving through Thanksgiving Day.
329 AM EST Wed Nov 25 2020 The weather today will be dominated by high pressure centered over southern Florida aloft and ridging from the Atlantic into the Carolinas at the surface. This high pressure will keep east and southeast surface winds in place, with temperatures running several degrees above normal (highs in the low 80s).
The trough will be slow to move across srn WI on Wed so dense fog could linger into the late morning hours. Gehring (Issued 301 PM CST Tue Nov 24 2020) Tonight and Wednesday: Low pressure will continue to lift northeast into central IL tonight into Wednesday. Temperatures near freezing early this afternoon is giving southern Wisconsin some sleet and rain/sleet mix at times. The rain chances and fog are expected to gradually diminish through the day on Wednesday as the system pushes east and an upper level ridge builds into the region.
We have opted to cancel the High Wind Watch for those zones, but strong/gusty winds of 45-55 MPH are still possible. Thus have opted to keep the area in the High Wind Watch for now. Otherwise mainly clear overnight and Weds with a short upper ridge passing across. Next upper trough passes by Thanksgiving Day but the energy still looks to be sheared out over the CWA with a decent batch dropping south into the desert SW with little dynamics over this area. As a result any snow looks to be confined to the higher mtns on Thursday with a few inches possible.
Low pressure from the Southern Plains approaches during the overnight tonight and into early Wednesday allowing temperatures to continue to slowly rise keeping ptypes all rain. The low pressure center will help to keep a sustained precip shield over the area later tonight and Wednesday morning, but then a dry slot works in during the afternoon allowing rain to become more scattered. Finally, the upper low moves through during the evening time frame allowing for one last batch of rain especially for areas south of US-24. A lull in the action occurs across the area starting Thanksgiving Thursday morning as ridging builds in behind the departing upper low as another trough builds in the western CONUS.
High pressure and VFR conditions will build in behind the front from west to east later this afternoon into the evening hours. Lower clouds haven't spread into the area yet, so should see a little more cooling, but thinking it will be warmer than expected.
A cold front passage will bring some snow showers and breezes today. Dry conditions continue through the weekend, with warmer days and cooler nights.
Lingering light precipitation in our far southeast zones has been winding down pretty quickly on the back side of the system as drier air continues to advect southeast behind a cold front. Cloud cover will decrease today behind the departing upper low pressure system, however latest satellite trends indicate some pesky stratus advecting south from eastern South Dakota and Nebraska and these low clouds on track to filter toward or into our eastern zones early this morning before departing by midday. Thanksgiving weather remains quiet with temps around 50F for highs, however a progressing upper trough translating across the northern plains will send a cold front south thru the day.
Rain will finally clear late this afternoon, followed by the surface cold front bringing with it drier and cooler conditions. Pleasant weather is still anticipated for Thanksgiving Day given some brief upper ridging.
Today: A deep-layer cyclone centered over eastern KS early this morning will continue east-northeast today with the associated deformation axis pivoting over southwest IA/southeast NE through daybreak.
355 AM EST Wed Nov 25 2020 Rain will move into the area today and continue into Thursday morning before the passage of low pressure. Southern stream low pressure will dig toward the Great Lakes today.
1030 PM EST Tue Nov 24 2020 Currently - A large high pressure system centered over New England extends a ridge along the Atlantic states and continues into the Gulf of Mexico. This ridge is generating fresh east northeast breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. Short Term Update - The high pressure well to our north will gradually shift further eastward overnight, but continuing to trail a ridge axis across the Atlantic states and into the Gulf of Mexico. Expect overnight lows to be in the lower 70s with dew points continuing to slowly rise into the 70s. High pressure over the Atlantic States will maintain mostly fresh breezes overnight.
A cut off upper low will eject into the mid-MS Valley Wednesday, with a surface cold front developing to its south, stretching across the lower MS Valley. Locally, this means a cold front will move into the Southeast and stall just north and west of our area of responsibility.
519 AM CST Wed Nov 25 2020 (Today and tonight) A cold front is quickly moving through the area early this morning and will be south of Interstate 10 before sunrise. Cooler temperatures are expected across West Central Texas today, with highs in the mid 60s across the Big Country to the upper 60s to mid 70s elsewhere. Overnight low temperatures will be in the low to mid 40s.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): Moderate south winds continue across the region owing to interactions between mid-level ridging over the Southeast US and troughing progressing eastward across the Plains.
The low will eject out of the area pretty quickly today, reaching Illinois by 18Z.
/issued 301 AM CST Wed Nov 25 2020/ A cold front continues moving southward across the area early this morning, nearing I-10 as of 300 AM CST. Temperatures across the northern tier are currently in the lower 30s to lower 40s, with upper 50s and 60s focused across the south. Early morning lows will likely drop into the upper 20s north and across the Marfa Plateau to middle 40s through the Rio Grande Valley, with a cooler day ahead with highs in the 60s and lower 70s for most. Weak ridging overnight tonight will quickly transition to quasizonal flow aloft on Thanksgiving Day, with westerly downslope flow at the surface yielding a substantial warm-up, and resulting in what looks to be our last unseasonably warm day for awhile.
529 AM CST Wed Nov 25 2020 High pressure continues to slide to the east this morning and into the afternoon hours followed by a weak trough and associated cold front tonight. The passing cold front won't have a major impact on temperatures Thursday compared to Wednesday, however, post frontal northwest winds will lead to gusty conditions during the day thursday. The period opens with a longwave trough tracking across the central CONUS. As the trough slides east upper level ridging will develop over the Northern Plains, although some models are more defined than others. The Canadian ensembles tend to flatten the ridge and keep slightly cooler air in place, whereas the GFS/EC ensembles trend toward higher 500 MB heights and warmer temps.
Otherwise, today will be quiet weather wise as the upper-level ridge builds in over the area through this afternoon, bringing southwesterly winds aloft tonight as the next trough approaches the area. Today's highs will be in the 40s over the higher terrain and around the mid- 50s over the plains. Lows across the area tonight are expected to once again dip below freezing by a fair amount. Several weather systems to impact southern CO but with limited Next splitting upper trough will move into western CO Thursday afternoon, spreading moisture and another round of light snow into the Continental Divide. This puts southern CO more under the influence of the northern stream trough initially which will spread some spotty light snow showers eastward into the southeast mountains Thursday evening before the upper trough pulls eastward.
Radar shows a few light showers over Shasta and northern Tehama Counties along a cold front that is moving to the southeast. Travel impacts are expected to be rather minor across the higher northern Sierra passes.
in the wake of a potent upper level low progressing eastward from the Central Plains to the MS River Valley. with increasingly confluent flow aloft over the High Plains. Expect somewhat cooler highs ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s -- in the wake of weak cold advection associated with a northerly wind shift late Thu morning -- with Thu night lows ranging from the upper teens to low-mid 20s.
Upper flow transitions to southwesterly Thanksgiving Day in advance of another southern stream closed upper low tracking eastward out of California and across the southwestern states Thanksgiving Day through Thursday night. Slightly cooler Thanksgiving Day with northwest to north winds and then colder Thursday night.
A strong cold front moving through the central California interior today will bring locally strong winds into the Kern county mountains and desert starting this afternoon and continuing into Thursday morning.
Winds will diminish this evening ahead of a cold front that will stall north of the area. Upper level high pressure over south Florida and the Florida Straits will remain quasi-stationary through tonight, and southwesterly flow aloft will prevail over the area. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move across Missouri this morning and then into the Ohio Valley tonight, with a cold front stretching to the southwest and slowing down as it moves across the Tennessee Valley and into the Southeast late tonight. Low level moisture will increase tonight across southeast Georgia and into portions of northeast Florida ahead of the stalling cold front. Overnight lows will be mild, with temperatures near 60 to the lower 60s across the interior, and the mid 60s at the coast.
423 AM MST Wed Nov 25 2020 Upper low pressure system that produced snowfall over the region was moving into MO early this morning. A decent surface pressure gradient between a ridge center over western CO and trough over eastern WY was generating strong west to southwest winds between Rawlins and Bordeaux with gusts over 60 mph measured at Arlington and Elk Mtn. Western CONUS upper trough approaches the CWA tonight with mid/level moisture increasing. Snow lingers into the afternoon before ending as flow aloft splits with the upper trough progressing east into the northern Plains by Thursday evening. High temperatures Thanksgiving Day will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler in the wake of tonight/s cold frontal passage.
Drier conditions return for Thanksgiving as high pressure builds back in from the west.
A cold front advancing across the region this morning will bring showers and possible a few thunderstorms. The first in a series of upper trofs and associated cold fronts is approaching from the northwest this morning. The will stall across the coastal waters into Southeast Louisiana for a time tonight and begin to drift back north Thursday as the next upper trof enters the western U.
Overcast skies are likely to persist throughout the day today despite weak high pressure moving across the area. The next chance for precip comes Thanksgiving morning, as a cold front moves across the area.
The first in a series of upper trofs and associated cold fronts is approaching from the northwest this morning. The will stall across the coastal waters into Southeast Louisiana for a time tonight and begin to drift back north Thursday as the next upper trof enters the western U.
WV imagery indicates a compact closed upper level low lifting slowly northeast across Missouri. Meanwhile, weak ridging aloft is moving out of the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure if shifting eastward across Texas.
213 AM MST Wed Nov 25 2020 An upper ridge will cross the area today ahead of an upper trough that will affect the region tonight. An increase in moisture will arrive with the upper trough this evening and northwest winds will increase behind a surface cold front. The enhanced moisture and lift associated with the upper trough, along with upslope forcing at the surface, will increase the chance of snow showers tonight, supporting some light snow accumulations over parts of northeastern Wyoming and the northern Black Hills. Thanksgiving day will be breezy/windy and cooler with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid-30s to mid-40s.
An upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest will continue southeast into and then across Utah tonight through Thanksgiving Day.
529 AM EST Wed Nov 25 2020 Rain will move into the area today and continue into Thursday morning before the passage of low pressure. Southern stream low pressure will dig toward the Great Lakes today.
301 AM CST Wed Nov 25 2020 A cold front continues moving southward across the area early this morning, nearing I-10 as of 300 AM CST. Temperatures across the northern tier are currently in the lower 30s to lower 40s, with upper 50s and 60s focused across the south. Early morning lows will likely drop into the upper 20s north and across the Marfa Plateau to middle 40s through the Rio Grande Valley, with a cooler day ahead with highs in the 60s and lower 70s for most. Weak ridging overnight tonight will quickly transition to quasizonal flow aloft on Thanksgiving Day, with westerly downslope flow at the surface yielding a substantial warm-up, and resulting in what looks to be our last unseasonably warm day for awhile.
09z/3am surface analysis shows a 1003mb low over western Missouri with a warm front extending southeastward into Tennessee. The low will track northeastward today. A dry slot noted on IR satellite imagery over central Missouri will pivot northeastward ahead of the low, resulting in a few breaks in the overcast across the E/SE later this morning. End result will be scattered thunderstorms ahead of the low track. Once the low pushes into Indiana, lingering showers will come to an end early this evening, followed by mostly cloudy and cool conditions for the remainder of the night.
This low is associated with a broad open-wave trough that will move over the Northern Plains tonight and tomorrow. Modest low level warm air advection ahead of the surface front along with southwest winds will contribute to warmer temperatures today with highs around 50 in the southwest and in the 40s north and east. Tonight, the aforementioned trough and associated front will push across the state.
236 AM MST Wed Nov 25 2020 Upper low pressure system that produced snowfall over the region was moving into MO early this morning. A decent surface pressure gradient between a ridge center over western CO and trough over eastern WY was generating strong west to southwest winds between Rawlins and Bordeaux with gusts over 60 mph measured at Arlington and Elk Mtn. Western CONUS upper trough approaches the CWA tonight with mid/level moisture increasing. Snow lingers into the afternoon before ending as flow aloft splits with the upper trough progressing east into the northern Plains by Thursday evening. High temperatures Thanksgiving Day will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler in the wake of tonight/s cold frontal passage.
(Today and tonight) A cold front is quickly moving through the area early this morning and will be south of Interstate 10 before sunrise. Cooler temperatures are expected across West Central Texas today, with highs in the mid 60s across the Big Country to the upper 60s to mid 70s elsewhere. Overnight low temperatures will be in the low to mid 40s.
320 AM CST Wed Nov 25 2020 Cold front currently extends from far NW AR through far SE OK with an extensive area of low clouds trailing the frontal boundary. Breezy winds will also persist through the morning making temps feel notably cooler than yesterday, while low clouds will be slow to clear across far E OK / NW AR and these areas will experience falling temps into the afternoon. Quick warm up by Thanksgiving afternoon with temps well above seasonal normals ahead of the next cold front which passes Thursday night.
trough axis sliding east toward the region. ridge for late in the week extending into NE Montana.
A weak cold front also crosses the forecast area overnight, although any noticeable CAA seems to be delayed until after 12z. Even with CAA in full effect by afternoon, went with the warmer guidance for max temps in the mid/upper 40s to result in about 1 to 2 degree bump from previous forecast.
359 AM CST Wed Nov 25 2020 High pressure continues to slide to the east this morning and into the afternoon hours followed by a weak trough and associated cold front tonight. The passing cold front won't have a major impact on temperatures Thursday compared to Wednesday, however, post frontal northwest winds will lead to gusty conditions during the day thursday. The period opens with a longwave trough tracking across the central CONUS. As the trough slides east upper level ridging will develop over the Northern Plains, although some models are more defined than others. The Canadian ensembles tend to flatten the ridge and keep slightly cooler air in place, whereas the GFS/EC ensembles trend toward higher 500 MB heights and warmer temps.
944 AM EST Wed Nov 25 2020 Rain will move into the area today and continue into Thursday morning before the passage of low pressure. Aloft, a closed low along the southern stream of the jet will continue to press northeastward into the region. As the warm front lifts through the area, rain will continue to develop as the cold front approaches this evening and into tonight. Warm air being advected north through the period behind the warm front will keep this precip as rain for the duration.