Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
547 PM MDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Just a few rain/snow showers occurring across the CWA this afternoon in association with an upper trough draped ne-sw across Wy. This trough will weaken slowly overnight as energy gets pulled southward to an upper low over AZ so expect pcpn to end and skies to gradually clear overnight. The next upper trough will begin to approach the CWA Tuesday night bringing a cool front into the CWA late and possibly a few snow showers to far northwest parts as well.
1150 PM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Satellite loops showing a good plume of moisture coming into the southern Rockies and central plains at 19Z, around the base of the western trough moving across southern California. At the surface, low pressure was located over south central Kansas with an inverted trough extending into southeastern Nebraska and a warm front into central Missouri. A few showers will continue this evening mainly east of the inverted trough over southwest Iowa. Models have the front pushing south towards Oklahoma this evening as the low lifts northeast into north central Missouri and a northern stream trough advances into the northern plains.
Cold front will sag southward into the area by mid or late morning at KCDS and early to mid afternoon best indications for KPVW and KLBB. /issued 340 PM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018/ Cloud cover out ahead of an upper level low approaching from the west and behind a cold front to the east which is draped from northeast Oklahoma down toward the Sweetwater area.
Despite the veering of the low level profile, low clouds look to remain in place through Tuesday night. The 5h ridge will have built from the central Gulf of Mexico into the southeast U.
At the surface, low is situated across south central KS with a warm front into west-central MO. The GFS is much faster with a strong cold front compared to the ECMWF.
700 PM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Low pressure center remains along Kansas/Oklahoma border with warm front extending eastward, mainly along I-70 corridor in MO. Short range models still want to push the warm front north of forecast area by 00Z with warm moist southwest flow continuing aloft. They will remain steady or rise some this evening as warm front lifts north. On Wed, southern stream trough will move east across the southern US with southerly wind ahead, ushering in Gulf moisture.
With high pressure building in, expect mostly dry weather for the balance of this week.
746 PM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Periodic rain chances return Tuesday through the rest of the work week with a series of crossing areas of low pressure. There still is a low chance of a brief period of light freezing rain for areas N of Route 422 and in the higher terrain, though increasing cloud cover should limit the temperature decreases. The best chance for freezing rain is expected in Garrett and ern Tucker counties where SE upslope flow should keep temperatures closer to freezing, though full sun today has resulted in pavement temps in the 50s and 60s, so expected impacts would be minimal. The first such break should come Tuesday evening/night in the wake of the lifting warm front.
739 PM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Late afternoon satellite pictures did show some clearing in the east and this did allow temperatures to remain warmer this afternoon and early evening. This is likely being aided by downslope flow coming across the higher terrain. As a warm front approaches from the west clouds will thicken back up tonight and there will be a chance for showers. A better chance of showers will occur Tuesday night as low pressure moves from the mid MS valley into the OH valley and a cold front approaches the area. A broad trough will gradually move from the Mississippi Valley to the Eastern Seaboard.
Conceptually, would expect this location to be at the nose of the low-level jet, which is where isentropic ascent will be maximized. The 26/12Z NAM and GFS suggest the nose of the low- level jet will be somewhere near I-44 tonight.
A few warm air advection type showers will be possible north of the Highway 59 corridor after midnight as the core of a 40-50 knot low level jet translates into the region, but BUFR soundings indicate mid-level capping will continue through sunrise and preclude thunder potential. Rain chances will be increasing starting tomorrow (highest POPS to the north to lower POPS at the coast) as the main upper trof approaches the state from the west. Progged PWs up to 2" along with the strong dynamics with the upper low and the cold front all hinting that things are on track for some very active weather. The building upper ridge out west will translate to increasingly NW flow aloft and quieter/drier weather for the end of the week/weekend.
Flight conditions will deteriorate overnight into Tuesday morning as a cold front moves south across the area, and the coverage and intensity of rain and thunderstorms increases. /Issued 349 PM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018/ Afternoon water vapor imagery shows closed upper low over southern CA, with a broad and moist southwesterly flow aloft across the southern and central Plains. Latest mesoanalysis places cold front into northwest Oklahoma, with gusty northwest winds from Medford to Seiling, with a dryline mixing into southwest Oklahoma southwest into Texas.
1248 AM EDT Tue Mar 27 2018 Strong high pressure centered north of the region will weaken on Tuesday, then move offshore through midweek.
945 PM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018 High pressure will control our weather through Tuesday morning. High pressure will keep fair weather over the region through Tuesday afternoon, before a frontal system sliding into the Great Lakes brings increasing clouds and rain showers to the region. While all places should start as rain in the afternoon a change to freezing rain can not be ruled out in spots by the evening particularly east of Binghamton. The initial dry airmass may allow for a few sleet pellets as well to mix in before the change to rain and freezing rain.
Strength of low level onshore flow off the relatively warm Atlantic will keep overnights lows warm in the upper 60s south coastal beaches to the lower 60s across the interior. Conditions are deteriorating quickly over the adjacent Atlantic waters as high pressure builds over the area producing a fresh easterly wind flow.
519 PM MDT Mon Mar 26 2018 A large long-wave trough over the western/central CONUS, along with a northern Canada vortex, will dominate the weather through at least the next 7 days. Today's storm continues to wind down as a positively tilted trough over the northern high plains weakens. This trough will move east of the CWA tonight, associated with clearing skies and low-level warm advection.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 45 58 53 71 / 10 10 20 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 44 62 53 69 / 10 10 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 45 62 53 68 / 10 10 10 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 38 63 47 70 / 10 10 0 30.
734 PM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018 High pressure will control our weather through Tuesday morning. High pressure will keep fair weather over the region through Tuesday afternoon, before a frontal system sliding into the Great Lakes brings increasing clouds and rain showers to the region. While all places should start as rain in the afternoon a change to freezing rain can not be ruled out in spots by the evening particularly east of Binghamton.
1126 PM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018 High pressure will crest over the area through Tuesday.
920 PM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Periodic rain chances return Tuesday through the rest of the work week with a series of crossing areas of low pressure. A low chance of a brief period of light freezing rain is possible across NW PA though the increased cloud cover should limit the temperature decreases. The best potential for freezing rain is expected in Garrett and ern Tucker counties where SE upslope flow should keep temperatures closer to freezing through Tue morning, though recent pavement temperatures indicate any impacts would be minor.
915 PM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018 High pressure will crest over the area through Tuesday.
1053 PM MDT Mon Mar 26 2018 A large long-wave trough over the western/central CONUS, along with a northern Canada vortex, will dominate the weather through at least the next 7 days. Today's storm continues to wind down as a positively tilted trough over the northern high plains weakens. This trough will move east of the CWA tonight, associated with clearing skies and low-level warm advection.
The solid wedge of drier and cooler air has effectively erased precipitation from north AL and southern TN. Despite the veering of the low level profile, low clouds look to remain in place through Tuesday night. The 5h ridge will have built from the central Gulf of Mexico into the southeast U.
Southwest flow aloft is in place across ND and MN, with a positively tilted trough over western ND. This may quickly dissipate as the main trough axis shifts east and dry/subsident air moves into our CWA this may quickly dissipate.
800 PM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018 High pressure will continue to drift east over the next couple of days leading to another day of pleasant weather on Tuesday under clear skies.
931 PM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Strong high pressure centered northeast of Maine with sfc ridging southward to the southeast states continues to result in moderate pressure gradient and dreary/moist low levels from prevailing easterly flow. Models not doing the best job handling this pattern except for some of the high res guidance. Improvements are anticipated at SGJ as the lower cigs shift inland and then northwest overnight into Tuesday morning.
A flat upper ridge offshore will allow moisture into the area through Tuesday, with rain at times, and snow in the mountains.
Above normal temperatures mid-week will give way to a little cooler than normal readings by the weekend. Isentropic lift will also increase later this afternoon and through tonight along with the low level jet. The forcing will be focused more into the northern half of the forecast area, so will go the highest PoPs there.
945 PM MDT Mon Mar 26 2018 900PM UPDATE: Latest update to fog for the overnight period has placed in along the northern sides of the Milk and Missouri valley ridges due to light wind flow underneath a developing inversion overnight. GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: Tonight a largely dry northwest flow aloft will build in in the wake of an exiting upper trough. Cloud cover will be on the increase, as well potential for showers by Tuesday evening as a cold front pushes through.
The 00Z sounding indicated a moistening profile in the lower levels capped by a strong inversion located in the 800 to 700 mb layer. Moderate east southeast flow near the surface veered to the south and southwest in the low levels and then to the west in the mid and upper levels.
638 PM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Low clouds in the IFR range will spread south behind a cold front overnight.
623 PM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018 At the synoptic level, we will be within southwest flow as a deeply amplified positively tilted trough stretching from eastern Montana to southern California and headed east. Still appears that the mean trough will split as the northern branch takes off across the Northern Plains tonight and the southern part will be a closed low centered somewhere over Arizona. Although the increased wind speed will make it feel quite cool tonight, the increased mixing from the wind along with the continued sky cover will keep minimum temperatures in the lower to mid 30s and probably no colder.
1031 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 High pressure builds across the area tonight into Wednesday and then offshore late in the day.
907 PM PDT Tue Jul 25 2017 Dry southwest flow aloft and building high pressure will gradually warm temperatures this week to a few degrees above normal.
/Issued 230 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017/ The axis of an H5 ridge extends eastward from the Four Corners region across the Southern Plains, and will be the primary weather feature affecting North and Central Texas this week. The main affect will be the sweltering heat expected the rest of the week due to subsidence from the ridge, plenty of solar radiation and dewpoints in the lower and middle 70s.
As the upper level low translates eastward, most models shows a couple impulses moving southward on the back side of the low into its base allowing a few late night showers across SE GA. High pressure will be southeast of the area waters this week.
955 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 High pressure will extend across the area through Wednesday.
1049 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 An upper level trough will remain over the eastern U. A stronger cold front expected to affect the area over the weekend bring more unsettled weather and cooler temperatures. A weak upper low along the AL/GA border this afternoon will slowly drift east and eventually move off the southeast coast Wednesday night. Additionally, a weak cold front will move into the area from the north and dissipate. Overnight lows will continue in the low to mid 70s.
920 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 High pressure will build into the Mid Atlantic tonight before moving offshore Wednesday.
729 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 High pressure will extend across the area through Wednesday.
504 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017 Latest analysis shows an upper low over Manitoba moving eastward through a broad ridge that covers much of North America.
/issued 407 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017/ The heat has returned in earnest today as temperatures surged into the lower to mid 90s this afternoon. Fortunately, drier air aloft was able to mix down significantly today which lowered dew points and consequently resulted in heat index readings only a few degrees warmer than ambient temperatures. The intense heat is being driven by the upper level ridge which will be edging closer to the region through mid week so look for mid and possibly upper 90s for highs through the end of the week. The silver lining in the forecast is the heat wave will be brief as the upper ridge retreats back out west this weekend.
A cold front will make it's way south into northwest Nebraska this evening, with the front through most of the forecast area of western and north central Nebraska by Wednesday morning. The big story will be the much cooler temperatures Wednesday, with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Western CONUS ridge will be in process of building Wednesday into Wednesday night and will extend from the Four Corners region- Southern Plains into the western Canadian Prairies at the start of the period.
Atlc ridge axis draped over the central peninsula will generate a light to gentle S/SE breeze overnight.
730 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 High pressure over Lake Erie will move east tonight and off the East Coast Wednesday afternoon.
848 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017 Evening GOES-R water vapor animation showed the center of the upper ridge over the south-central CONUS and upper low near the northern CA coast. A cold front was located from south-central WY to northwest NE and eastern SD. GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite imagery shows plenty of monsoonal moisture spreading northeast from Utah and western CO on the back side of upper-level ridging anchored over the southern high plains. For Wednesday, expect to see less storm coverage outside of the mountains with the upper-level ridge axis building into the CWA through the day.
1037 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017 Latest analysis shows an upper low over Manitoba moving eastward through a broad ridge that covers much of North America.
A gradual drying trend is expected for the latter portion of the week as high pressure aloft strengthens across the region.
844 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017 Mostly clear skies across central IL this evening as high pressure continues to pull away to the east and an upper level ridge continues to approach from the west, and this will continue overnight, although with an increase in high clouds from the northwest. Lows ranging from the lower 60s near Danville to upper 60s from Peoria to Lawrenceville southwestward, along with light southeast winds around 5 mph expected overnight. Most models continue to hold off precipitation until evening tomorrow, associated with the approaching cold front. Generally quiet weather is expected across central and southeast Illinois through the period as high pressure drifts off the east and a cold front approaches from the northwest. There are varied model solutions in how how quickly and far ahead convection will develop ahead of the cold front.
Will also need to monitor northward moving outflow boundary from the Lower TX Coast which may allow for additional convection to develop this evening across the Gulf waters. and even there expect only an isolated shower or thunderstorms as high pressure ridge settles over the area at 500mb. Hot temperatures expected once again tomorrow with similar highs to today, just a degree or so warmer in some areas.
740 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 A low pressure system currently over central Manitoba will shift E across far northern Ontario tonight and Wed. The cold front slows across the area and moves through the S-central and E tomorrow. As a cold front sinks southeast of the area Wednesday evening, the best chances for showers and thunderstorms will slide out of the U.
1037 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 An upper level trough will remain over the eastern U. A stronger cold front expected to affect the area over the weekend bring more unsettled weather and cooler temperatures. A weak upper low along the AL/GA border this afternoon will slowly drift east and eventually move off the southeast coast Wednesday night. Additionally, a weak cold front will move into the area from the north and dissipate. Overnight lows will continue in the low to mid 70s.
1257 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Broad low pressure will remain across the Carolinas and Georgia through tonight.
717 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 High pressure will make for an overall pleasant summer night across eastern Kentucky. Should see this remain confined to mainly valley locales where greater cooling will occur since crossover temperatures may have a difficult time being reached on ridges. High pressure was passing by to our north today behind the cold front which passed through. However, an upper level trough will begin to deepen over the Great Lakes and New England, allowing another cold front to drop south.
There is a small chance for isolated convection along the higher mts on Wed, but the forecast POPS are too low at this point for a mention of the weather in the Zone Forecasts. the high pressure ridge over the Southern Plains will gradually retrograde over the Desert Southwest. The medium range models are coming into better agreement that the high pres ridge will generally dominate the weather pattern with hotter temperatures inland and a shallower marine layer near the coast.
635 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017 Generally quiet weather is expected across central and southeast Illinois through the period as high pressure drifts off the east and a cold front approaches from the northwest. There are varied model solutions in how how quickly and far ahead convection will develop ahead of the cold front.
845 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 After an active afternoon along the Lower Keys, the environment has been worked over a bit. High pressure will remain nearby the area with ample moisture in the column, and light steering flow. The Atlantic high pressure axis will extend across the Florida Peninsula through the weekend. On this date in Keys Weather History, 1919, the low dropped to 70 degrees setting the daily record minimum temperature in Key West.
655 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017 A ridge of high pressure will keep VFR conditions for the forecast period. However, MVFR conditions will be possible between 12Z and 16Z at the ACT TAF site as the low level jet develops overnight and brings stratus from Central Texas. The direction of the low level jet should keep MVFR ceilings south of the Metroplex TAF sites. /Issued 230 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017/ The axis of an H5 ridge extends eastward from the Four Corners region across the Southern Plains, and will be the primary weather feature affecting North and Central Texas this week. The main affect will be the sweltering heat expected the rest of the week due to subsidence from the ridge, plenty of solar radiation and dewpoints in the lower and middle 70s.
724 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 High pressure through Wednesday.
901 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017 High pressure over southern LA and a trough of low pressure over eastern CO will maintain light onshore winds tonight. At 300 mb, there was a well defined albeit weak trough axis that extends into SE TX. Expect these to diminish by 01Z to 02Z with the lost of solar heating; however, with the higher moisture available isolated showers could linger into the mid evening. All in all, it does look like the combination of slightly lower PWs/weak upper level ridging is currently helping to keep things quiet across SE TX.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 94 74 91 / 20 10 10 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 90 72 88 / 0 10 10 40 Oak Ridge, TN 71 92 72 89 / 0 0 10 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 90 67 87 / 0 10 10 40.
8C/km, low mixed layer CAPE of only 106 J/KG, and increase in freezing levels by 1200 feet to nearly 16000 feet.
619 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017 A cold front will make it's way south into northwest Nebraska this evening, with the front through most of the forecast area of western and north central Nebraska by Wednesday morning. The big story will be the much cooler temperatures Wednesday, with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Western CONUS ridge will be in process of building Wednesday into Wednesday night and will extend from the Four Corners region- Southern Plains into the western Canadian Prairies at the start of the period.
1205 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Deep column ridging will maintain nil aviation weather tonight. Upper level ridge axis will be in place tonight, providing clear skies and temps likely falling back into the mid 50s to lower 60s. Warmer tomorrow, as return southwest flow kicks supporting temperatures climbing into the mid 80s (possible upper 80s) with near full insolation. With 850 mb temps progged to climb toward 20 C ahead of the Cold front, 90 degrees would be in play, but mixing depths expected to come up short of 850 mb with the cooler start.
753 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 High pressure over Lake Erie will move east tonight and off the East Coast Wednesday afternoon.
Apparently the low-level convergence has been sufficiently strong -- given the amount of CAPE -- to support development of deep/moist convection in spite of the time of day and lack of an apparent source of mid/upper-level ascent. Wednesday looks a lot like Tuesday except the ridge will build over the region with more drying aloft. With the slightly higher 850mb temps and sunnier skies, highs should rise into the lower 90s.
Expect these to diminish by 01Z to 02Z with the lost of solar heating; however, with the higher moisture available isolated showers could linger into the mid evening.
Have held onto the higher clouds through 09z. Upper level zonal flow will gradually transition to northwest flow as ridging builds to the west. Wednesday will be dry with highs in the lower 80s northeast to the upper 80s southwest.
809 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 Deep column ridging will maintain nil aviation weather tonight. Upper level ridge axis will be in place tonight, providing clear skies and temps likely falling back into the mid 50s to lower 60s. Warmer tomorrow, as return southwest flow kicks supporting temperatures climbing into the mid 80s (possible upper 80s) with near full insolation. With 850 mb temps progged to climb toward 20 C ahead of the Cold front, 90 degrees would be in play, but mixing depths expected to come up short of 850 mb with the cooler start.
742 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected through the morning as a cold front moves through. Less humid and cooler weather is forecast for much of the week. A line of showers associated with the cold front is moving through western PA and northern WV. This will take until late morning for it to vacate the higher terrain. The NAM wants to develop a surface reflection and cold front beneath this wave, while the GFS is showing the wave spinning northward, with little to no activity across the area.