Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
In terms of temperatures, have shaved a couple/few degrees off the inherited forecast for locations near/north of I-90 where cloud cover and/or onset of CAA may be most problematic (06z guidance suggest these may trend even cooler than the decreases already made). Winds will also be a consideration today with a initial maximum this morning around daybreak toward the Buffalo Ridge and surrounding area where gusts may near 35-45 mph. At this point, it appears that there may be an offset of the warmer temperature and lower dewpoints given a potential earlier onset to CAA and NW surface winds. As the trough axis swings overhead later in the day, should see a lower stratus deck leak southward with perhaps enough overlap of a southward spinning vort lobe and near saturated dendritic layer to drive some flurries into the Hwy 14 corridor.
Otherwise, guidance continues to favor increasing cloudiness from the southwest after daybreak on Tuesday as the old cold front lifts back northward as warm front. Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 51 71 51 65 / 0 0 0 10 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 50 71 52 66 / 0 0 0 10 90 Oak Ridge, TN 61 51 69 51 63 / 0 0 0 20 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 44 68 46 66 / 0 0 0 0 80.
1054 PM CST Mon Nov 15 2021 (This evening through Tuesday) Increasing mid-level heights from an approaching ridge will foster warmer overnight lows this evening in the upper 40s to low 50s across the state.
The forecast leans on the warmer guidance for highs mostly in the lower to mid 70s. This forecast is cooler than than guidance blend but close to the 75 percentile of the NBM. This dry air will be swept east into Nebraska ahead of a strong Pacific cold front progged to sweep through wrn and ncntl Nebraska late this afternoon and tonight.
601 AM EST Tue Nov 16 2021 Chilly high pressure will be over the region this morning.
An upper level trough was moving across the northern Rockies per the 08Z water vapor imagery. Surface observations showed a trough of low pressure extending from the Canadian plains south into west TX. But the 03Z RAP and 00Z GFS are trending towards the boundary layer saturating ahead of the cold front generally around or after 06Z, juts not as far north and west as the NAM has it. First models show 925MB temps slightly cooler today than was observed yesterday. Have kept highs in the lower and middle 70s, but this could be a touch optimistic. It looks like the cold front should move through most if not all of the forecast area by sunrise Wednesday.
604 AM CST Tue Nov 16 2021 Sensible weather during the short term period will be dominated by a strong low pressure center heading east across southern Canada. Meanwhile, the surface warm front will lift north into far southern Minnesota and a triple point low will push east along it. A local enhancement of wind aloft will form by midday within the deep warm frontal inversion. There may also be some flurries or light snow showers across central Minnesota in the afternoon as deeper moisture wraps around the low well to the north.
Flow aloft across the region will become more quasi- zonal today, while southwesterly to southerly flow persists in the lower levels of the atmosphere and at the surface. This will continue to promote moistening and warmer conditions across the forecast area through tonight. These winds will subside a bit during the evening hours, with lows ranging from the lower 50s to around 60. /19/ Deep upper level low skirts the US/Canada border mid week, further amplifying the pattern over the CONUS, shifting the flow to more southwesterly. That being said, southerly flow at the surface ahead of the advancing cold front will push temps into the mid to upper 70s on Wednesday.
A nearly stacked low pressure system over southern Saskatchewan with an attached warm front to the southeast towards northern MO will put the Northland in an isentropic lift regime. The stacked upper level low pressure system previously mentioned will continue its trek eastward. Pieces of energy will circulate around the upper low providing just enough lift to create light snow showers and flurries across NE MN.
The system is expected to be south of our area by this afternoon as a trough drops into the Great Basin and a northwest flow aloft develops. Skies will clear out over the higher elevations later today.
MOS guidance and model sounding analysis still points to afternoon high temperatures ranging from the mid/upper 70s along the Highway 281 corridor to the low/mid 80s in areas along and west of Highway 83. High level cirrus clouds were spreading into the region ahead of an upper level low pressure system and associated trough over southern Canada and the northern Rockies. Tonight will see a dramatic change in the weather as a strong cold front, associated with the northern Plains system, plows south through Kansas. With a cooler airmass in place behind the front, temperatures will be topping out in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Given this result, and the fact that temperatures are much warmer this morning than yesterday morning (by about 20 degrees!), we can anticipate highs today in the mid to upper 80s to near 90 for most locations. The one exception will be across our Hill Country counties, including Junction, where the airmass will be cooler and more humid.
Today will be some 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday, with highs in the mid-60s to mid-70s (which is up to 9 degrees above climo). Dry conditions are in store once again tomorrow with highs generally a couple degrees warmer than those today -- in the 70s for much of the area. At the start of the period high pressure covers the forecast area.
The warm front associated with this low level cyclone appears to be around the Red River Valley, or just north. Through the day this warm front will progress northward with the steady southerly flow. Weak mid level ridging should work in concert with the influx of warm air to produce fair conditions with temperatures well above seasonal normals. Initially as this low level cloud bearing layer becomes thicker we could see some light drizzle going into the Tuesday night/Wednesday morning time frame. This moisture will then set the stage for a crashing cold front expected to move into NW MO early Wednesday morning, and pushing all the way through the forecast area by noon Wednesday. This will bring a brief period of light rain, as the low level forcing provides just enough lift to get light precipitation.
207 AM MST Tue Nov 16 2021 A strong stacked low pressure system will move east across southern Saskatchewan today. The system will bring a cold front through the forecast area early this morning which will lead to steady or slowly falling temperatures today. While the responsible low pressure system moves into Manitoba tonight and western Ontario on Wednesday, the tight surface gradient will remain over NE Montana. High pressure moves in from the west Wednesday Night which will allow the winds to become light and variable.
410 AM CST Tue Nov 16 2021 Sensible weather during the short term period will be dominated by a strong low pressure center heading east across southern Canada. Meanwhile, the surface warm front will lift north into far southern Minnesota and a triple point low will push east along it. A local enhancement of wind aloft will form by midday within the deep warm frontal inversion. There may also be some flurries or light snow showers across central Minnesota in the afternoon as deeper moisture wraps around the low well to the north.
A series of dry troughs will brush Arizona this week resulting in lower high temperatures and periods of breezy southwest winds. A deep low pressure center in the southern Canadien plains is embedded in an upper-level trough that will brush northern Arizona today. Maintained a low percentile blend to account for these potential cooler temperatures that night.
However fall condns wl return w/ the arrival of a cold front, progged to enter from the N/W Wed evening, and quickly sweep through overnight Wed.
622 AM EST Tue Nov 16 2021 Warmer and dry today. Cooler conditions return for the end of the week. There will be warm air advection today ahead of a warm front, but daytime highs will be dependent on how fast the stratus lifts. It will be dry into this evening, then rain showers will start moving in overnight with the increasing southwesterly flow ahead of a cold front.
632 AM EST Tue Nov 16 2021 Surface and upper-level ridging will be across the area today before moving east and offshore into Wednesday.
Surface analysis depicts high pressure centered across Georgia and the Carolinas and extending southward across the Florida peninsula, with the Keys and South Florida lying within moderate NE flow along the southern periphery of this high. Aloft, water vapor imagery shows a broad longwave trough exiting stage right across the Northeastern states, while the next trough upstream moves across the Rocky Mountain states.
Skies have cleared a little more than previously anticipated, resulting in warmer mid-morning temperatures. High temperatures for this afternoon were raised slightly into the low to mid 70s to account for recent trends; otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. Will be an uneventful night for us, but a cold front will be pushing southeast through the upper Midwest and into the Ozark region by the early morning hours. An upper trough will begin to amplify over the northern Plains, and this will ultimately be responsible for our next shot at rain. Will remain dry and warm on Wednesday, with increasing cloud cover mainly west of I-65 where the higher moisture quality exists.
Gusty westerly winds continue this morning but not nearly as strong as observed last evening before and during the cold front passage.
this high cloud cover will likely help hold down max temperatures a few degrees from their true potential. Things are forecast to rapidly change this evening, however, as a strong cold front pushes south across the local area. Heights aloft will then gradually build through the end of the week as a transitory ridge of high pressure crosses the local area.
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours as high pressure remains in control. /issued 413 AM CST Tue Nov 16 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): 500 mb ridging overhead will provide subsidence across deep south Texas through the period. A nearly zonal flow aloft today will become more southwesterly by Wednesday as the next large scale trough swings eastward over the Rockies into the Northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico this morning will slide farther eastward today and tonight. Low pressure developing across the Plains today will support moderate to breezy winds near the coast today into tonight.
A gradual cooling trend begins today as high pressure is displaced by a weather system passing to the north.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): 500 mb ridging overhead will provide subsidence across deep south Texas through the period. A nearly zonal flow aloft today will become more southwesterly by Wednesday as the next large scale trough swings eastward over the Rockies into the Northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico this morning will slide farther eastward today and tonight. Low pressure developing across the Plains today will support moderate to breezy winds near the coast today into tonight.
Did hit warning in the Arlington zone WY110 at Elk Mountain with 60mph gusts and a sustained 40 mph wind at Halleck Ridge after midnight this morning. The southern Panhandle and Laramie County should get quite warm today with the late arrival of the incoming cold front.
A low level northeast wind flow around the high will support a continued warming trend with afternoon temperatures forecast to reach into the mid 70s north, and upper 70s to around 80 central and south. Despite the low humidity values and high ERC's, light winds will preclude Red Flag conditions.
925 AM EST Tue Nov 16 2021 Surface and upper-level ridging will be across the area today before moving east and offshore into Wednesday.
Light valley rain and mountain snow is possible in northern Nevada this morning, otherwise dry and a little cooler today.
527 AM CST Tue Nov 16 2021 One last warm and dry day today with a warm front currently stalled along the I-70 corridor. In the meantime, as an upper level ridge builds east across the region, a southwesterly low level jet will develop, increasing to 40+kts. This will advect in warmer 850 mb temperatures and allow gusty winds to mix down to the surface. By tonight, an upper level trough across the Northern Plains will continue to deepen and slide eastward towards the Great Lakes region, dragging a cold front southeastward into northwestern Missouri by 06z Wednesday. On Wednesday, even though the low level jet will weaken, there will be enough low/mid level frontogenetical forcing to generate widespread post frontal rain through Wednesday night.
Warmer temps will move in today thanks to southerly flow and a warm front moving through the area. Ridging will keep the southerly flow and warmer temps into Wednesday as the trough approaches.
A warming trend will commence today as cold air advection ceases with high pressure scooting offshore of the SE U. We'll also start to see the low levels moisten slightly, enough to see some marine stratocu start to show up along the Space and Treasure Coasts this afternoon and evening, but the atmosphere will remain much too dry and stable to support any precipitation. As high pressure over north FL drifts seaward, winds will veer onshore by this evening, increasing to around 15 knots overnight and 15-20 knots offshore south of Cape Canaveral, where small craft will need to exercise caution.
(Today through Wednesday afternoon) An upper low moving across Canada will drag a trough across the the western states today as a flat ridge extends across the region. This trough will reach the Rockies early Wednesday and move across the plains during the day. Overnight lows should be warmer in the 40s and 50s. Wednesday will not be as warm as today before a cold front blows into the area during the afternoon. Inherited a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains today as the upper trough approaches.
Upper ridging will pass over the region today which will help to keep conditions dry through the day. A warm front will slowly push northward across central Indiana today, turning winds more southerly, advecting in warmer air. As the warm front pushes north of the forecast area, can't rule out the potential for drizzle overnight with isentropic lift, but confidence is not high enough include it in the forecast. Ahead of an approaching cold front, a low level jet is expected to bring breezy winds from the early morning hours tomorrow into the evening.
650 AM EST Tue Nov 16 2021 Surface and upper-level ridging will be across the area today before moving east and offshore into Wednesday.
It is noticeably warmer than it was 24 hours ago. This has resulted in the warmer temperatures as previously mentioned. Mild and dry weather conditions will continue through Wednesday as brief ridging moves into the area. Highs this afternoon and Wednesday are forecast to reach the low to mid-70s. Temperatures tonight will be in the 50s, slightly warmer to the NW as cloud cover increases. The upper level pattern remains quite progressive and upper ridging will be quick to advance eastward.
Other than that, expect mostly clear skies with highs in the low to mid 70s. Tonight, low temps should be warmer and generally in the 40s.
High pressure aloft will amplify over the Northeast Pacific during Tuesday and Wednesday. Easterly winds gusting from 20 to 30 mph will be likely across the ridges of Del Norte, Trinity, and Lake Counties during Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
303 AM PST Tue Nov 16 2021 Temperatures drop to more typical levels for the rest of the week as a cooler airmass builds into the Great Basin.
A strong cold front is working its way through southeast Idaho this morning. Things should start to settle down this evening with a shallow ridge moving in from the west.
925 AM EST Tue Nov 16 2021 High pressure will prevail through mid week.
Scattered showers will gradually taper off this afternoon as an upper trough moves inland. High pressure will build over the area tonight and shift inland on Wednesday.
We will therefore update the High Wind Warning to start basically now. (Today through Wednesday afternoon) An upper low moving across Canada will drag a trough across the the western states today as a flat ridge extends across the region. This trough will reach the Rockies early Wednesday and move across the plains during the day. Overnight lows should be warmer in the 40s and 50s. Wednesday will not be as warm as today before a cold front blows into the area during the afternoon. Inherited a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains today as the upper trough approaches.
A Lee surface cyclone, which is currently over the OK/TX Panhandles, will move east through today. Winds will start to decrease shortly after sunset and become light early tonight as the surface cyclone moves farther east and the atmosphere decouples. A dry cold front will move through the region tomorrow morning, bringing breezy northerly winds and cooler temperatures. The cold front should be through the area by about noon. However, cooler temperatures may lag, resulting in highs in the mid-50s over the southwestern Texas Panhandle and highs in the 60s over the rest of the area; Aspermont may even hit 70 tomorrow afternoon. This temperature gradient is subject to change some depending on how fast the cooler air takes to get to the region.
A series of dry troughs will brush Arizona this week resulting in lower high temperatures and periods of breezy southwest winds.
TFJ A strong stacked low pressure system will move east across southern Saskatchewan today. The system will bring a cold front through the forecast area early this morning which will lead to steady or slowly falling temperatures today. While the responsible low pressure system moves into Manitoba tonight and western Ontario on Wednesday, the tight surface gradient will remain over NE Montana. High pressure moves in from the west Wednesday Night which will allow the winds to become light and variable.
Tonight and Wednesday As the upper ridge departs the area this afternoon, WAA will continue across the region through the evening. A second impetus for light showers will arrive late overnight, as a weak cold front crosses the region. The cold front will likely arrive late enough tonight that overnight temperatures will only drop a few degrees for most, although the far north could drop a few degrees more. Drier air then pushes back into the region for Wednesday behind the weak cold front.
Mostly cloudy skies can be expected with lows on the warmer side (upper 50s to near 60 degrees) for November. As the atmospheric pattern changes a bit (winds shifting ahead of a cold front), a tighter pressure gradient will occur across the region.
- Cooler temperatures return behind tonight's cold front, putting highs back in the 40s/50s and lows in the 20s/30s for the second half of the week. The breezy southerly winds and advancing warm front (currently along a line from Moberly to Maryville) are allowing temperatures to warm up quickly. A cold front moves through the area tonight and tomorrow, bringing the 40s/50s back for highs and 20s/30s back for lows. As previously mentioned, cooler temperatures return behind the front.
A long wave upper ridge will transition through the area today through Wednesday. Meanwhile, east winds will keep the ridges warmer tonight with moderate to good humidity recoveries. The ridge axis will break to the east of the Medford forecast area Wednesday evening, and flow aloft will turn southwesterly.
An expansive high pressure has slowly shifted eastward today off of the southeast coast and has kept an tightened gradient across the Florida Keys and surrounding coastal waters. The aforementioned high pressure will continue to build eastward overnight and will support elevated easterly winds through around Wednesday.
200 PM EST Tue Nov 16 2021 Warmer and dry today. Cooler conditions return for the end of the week. Water vapor imagery depicting upper trough circulation over southern portions of Saskatchewan/Manitoba that is inducing downstream ridging that will be over our area to begin the period. Breezy and mild conditions can be expect ahead of this as low level thermal ridge and associated warm air advection set up over the region aided by a southwest LLJ at 40+kts.
1207 PM EST Tue Nov 16 2021 High pressure will prevail through mid week.
The cold front continues to move east today with isolated snow showers along the NV border and in the central ID mountains. Continued cool temperatures on Wednesday with mostly clear skies as a weak ridge builds into the area.
Winds along with temperatures will be on the rise again on Wednesday, reaching into the lower 80s over our southern most counties. However, with the next cold front tracking through the area Wednesday, the northern half of our area will only see highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
As evident by dew points across the mid-state, a warm front continues to pull northward this morning. In any event, today should be a relatively quiet weather day and tomorrow should see more sun and even warmer temperatures.
1147 AM CST Tue Nov 16 2021 One last warm and dry day today with a warm front currently stalled along the I-70 corridor. In the meantime, as an upper level ridge builds east across the region, a southwesterly low level jet will develop, increasing to 40+kts. This will advect in warmer 850 mb temperatures and allow gusty winds to mix down to the surface. By tonight, an upper level trough across the Northern Plains will continue to deepen and slide eastward towards the Great Lakes region, dragging a cold front southeastward into northwestern Missouri by 06z Wednesday. On Wednesday, even though the low level jet will weaken, there will be enough low/mid level frontogenetical forcing to generate widespread post frontal rain through Wednesday night.
We've trimmed highs back to the low 70s for the lower plains, and it may be a stretch to hit near 80 degrees around the Elkhart area with limited hours of heating left this afternoon, although the westerly downslope wind may help a bit. A cold front will move though the area, beginning near Hays by midnight and exiting into Oklahoma probably between 3 and 4 am. Cold advection will be ongoing through much of the day Wednesday, limiting the highs to mainly the 40s and low to mid 50s.
At the surface an attendant deep surface 985mb low was tracking into southeast Saskatchewan, with an occluded front draped south toward another low pressure center over South Dakota. The highest observed gusts in excess of 40 kts at times have been co- located with the deepest pressure falls exceeding -3mb/hr per MSAS over southeast MN. Some fog or drizzle before a cold front sweeps through overnight into early Wednesday. Model guidance has hedged a bit warmer tomorrow, but again cloud cover trends could be an issue.
1008 AM MST Tue Nov 16 2021 Cold front moving across forecast area this morning, just north of Rapid City at 10 AM.
1232 PM EST Tue Nov 16 2021 Warmer and dry today. Cooler conditions return for the end of the week. There will be warm air advection today ahead of a warm front, but daytime highs will be dependent on how fast the stratus lifts. It will be dry into this evening, then rain showers will start moving in overnight with the increasing southwesterly flow ahead of a cold front.