Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
It appears that the best coverage will be across northeast MO and west central and southwest IL where there will be cooler mid level temperatures associated with the upper level trough and hence better lapse rates. High temperatures today should also be a little cooler across this area as well.
740 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND MILDER TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA EARLY TODAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A BROAD BUT WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE LOWER 48 EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WE WILL SAY GOODBYE TO THE LOWER DEWPOINTS WITH HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING.
1007 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. LATEST WX ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AT MIDDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE TUE AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/TN VALLEY. COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION WEDS NIGHT. BUT TIMING OF BEST POPS WILL BE DIFFICULT ATTM DUE TO TIMING PERTURBATIONS ALONG WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND POTENTIAL UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES. HIGHS MID-UPPER 80S INLAND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST. WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO THE LOW 90S (SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE COAST). WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP TUESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST.
/ISSUED 158 AM PDT MON JUN 29 2015/ HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL NOT BE CHANGING VERY MUCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT MINOR SHIFTS WITH THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST WILL PRODUCE VARYING RESULTS WITH THE WEATHER. GENERALLY, MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA KEEPING PWAT VALUES IN THE 1" RANGE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
PERHAPS A DEGREE OR SO COOLER NORTHEAST WHERE SMOKE IS THICKEST. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER THE MIDDLE 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. WILL SEE THE REGION SKIRTED BY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/TROUGH.
HIGHS INTO MID WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
945 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND MILDER TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A BROAD BUT WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE LOWER 48 EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. COOLER AIR ALOFT AND THE BACK EDGE OF BKN-OVC STRATO CU WILL BE EXITING THE FAR EAST PARTS OF THE CWA SHORTLY. FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PENN.
WITH A MOSTLY STATIONARY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THAT TIME.
AND A 595DM ANTI-CYCLONE CENTERED OVER NRN UTAH. MEAN LAYER MIXING RATIOS AROUND THE PHOENIX METRO OF ONLY 9-10 G/KG COMBINED WITH WARM ENVIRONMENTAL PROFILES HAVE LARGELY INHIBITED ANY OF THESE STORMS FROM SURVIVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
/ISSUED 311 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/ NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. MOSTLY DRY TUESDAY BUT DOES LOOK A LITTLE COOLER.
1032 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN CROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO ON TUESDAY. PUSHING A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA.
/ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/ CLUSTER OF STORMS PROPAGATING SOUTH ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER JET NUDGES INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ALONG WITH VERY WEAK MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF EASTERN CONUS CYCLONIC FLOW AND EASTERN FRINGES OF WESTERN CONUS RIDGING. OWING TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW-MID 90S. PRIMARY INFLUENCE OF OUR WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHICH LOOKS TO PERSIST.
1211 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN WHILE EXITING THE MARITIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THEN MOVE EAST TUESDAY.
The pattern to begin the week is rather amplified with a substantial ridge noted over the western CONUS and a deep trough over the eastern half. This should allow afternoon highs to creep into the low 90s across east central Kansas and adjacent areas of Missouri by Tuesday. First of these events that might affect our section of the country will arrive Tuesday night as the nose of the low level jet points at southeast Nebraska and/or northwest Missouri.
THE 200 AND 300 MB UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS DRIFTED EASTWARD OVER THE PAST 24 TO 30 HOURS. AT 500 MB THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUED UNDER A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHICH HAS PLACED A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE DEVELOPING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. THE RIDGE DOES APPEAR TO STRENGTHEN A BIT ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID MS VALLEY MOVES EASTWARD.
720 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A DEEP TROUGH IN THE EASTERN U. BROAD TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY.
A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE MAIN FEATURE AT THE SURFACE. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
502 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015 NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AS A RIDGE PERSISTS OVER CENTRAL UTAH.
915 AM PDT MON JUN 29 2015 UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT BASIN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH A LARGE UPPER HIGH OVER UTAH AND A WEAK UPPER LOW TO THE SW OF SRN CA. THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS AND EXPANDS A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND AS A RESULT THE UPPER FLOW SHIFTS FROM THE SSE TO THE SE.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WESTERLY AS WE ARE NEAR THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE A FEW SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE NW AFTER 06Z TUE.
1017 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN EXPECTED TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS INDIANA TOWARDS LAKE ERIE. ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
WRN/SW FCST AREA TO REMAIN NEAR A ZONE WHERE SHORT WAVES FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL TRAVEL AS HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED TO OUR NORTHEAST.
440 AM PDT MON JUN 29 2015 *** AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED *** UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT BASIN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH A LARGE UPPER HIGH OVER UTAH AND A WEAK UPPER LOW TO THE SW OF SRN CA. THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS AND EXPANDS A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND AS A RESULT THE UPPER FLOW SHIFTS FROM THE SSE TO THE SE.
WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. AND TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEP SOUTH. THIS FLOW WAS BRINGING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WESTERN RIDGE TO THE EAST.
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH RIDGE OFFSHORE. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW 90S. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES A BIT ON TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THRU THE AREA. WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HEAT TROUGH. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS PRESENCE OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AFTER MIDWEEK BRINGING A DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING AT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE VALLEYS REMAIN DRY.
/ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/ WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.
633 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015 JET MAX ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SHOULD BRING AT LEAST ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL CLEAR AND ANOTHER PLEASANT EVENING WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. WITH A BIT COOLER EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND OVER THE AREA KEEPING HIGHS FROM AROUND 80 NORTHEAST.
RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH DURING MIDWEEK WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER SEAS ANTICIPATED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AS HIGH PRESSURE IN ONTARIO POKES DOWN INTO THE CWA. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP PROMOTE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
959 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN WHILE EXITING THE MARITIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THEN MOVE EAST TUESDAY.
WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE OZARKS. GIVEN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF LOW PRESSURE NEARBY. UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS STILL OVER EASTERN ILX THIS MORNING AND WILL KEEP CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN NWRLY FLOW/SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL TODAY, WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE NE, CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND COOLER MID LEVELS. ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST MOST OF THE DAY.
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS REGION TODAY. AND MAYBE OVER THE HIGH CASCADES. MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN LATER THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.
THEN REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT.
WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION WHILE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE MAIN FEATURE AT THE SURFACE. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS STEERING ANY POTENTIAL WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL TO OUR EAST. A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST HAS NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STARTING OFF THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST EURO TRENDED WARMER THAN THE GOING GFS AND I WENT MORE WITH THIS GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AGREEMENT ON THE WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DUE TO THE MIDWESTERN UPPER LEVEL TROF.
THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF H5 SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. 29/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS WITH 595 DM HIGH CENTERED NEAR SALT LAKE CITY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST NORTH OF FL WITH ATL RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL EASILY REACH THE LOW 90S AND EVEN MID 90S ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS AS THE AREA REMAINS BETWEEN FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH.
956 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 WARMER AND DRIER TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN MOVES IN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SKY WAS TRIMMED BACK CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS MOVE ALONG OUR NORTHERN PERIPHERY INTO NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. INGESTING THE RAW HRRR TEMPERATURES SHOWED TOO MUCH OF A GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE COOLER NORTH WHERE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH FOLLOWING THE TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER OVER LAKE ERIE. ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN MOVING SLOWLY WEST INTO THE VALLEYS OF YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES. WITH ONLY GRADUAL AND MODEST SHIFTS IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE. DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN FIRST AND EXPANDING TO THE VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH MONSOON MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASING.
/ISSUED 316 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/ TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO ATLANTIC WATERS TUESDAY AS THE HIGH TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BE EASTERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND KEEPING THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
126 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015 THE PRESSURE RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DIRECT A SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL. THE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND THE PRESSURE RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT DEPICTING A SLIGHT MOISTURE INCREASE SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH LIFTING NORTHWARD. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT OR DEVELOPING WARM FRONT SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE DEEPENING MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
1251 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE PATTERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /ISSUED 848 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT KEEPING A BREEZY SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH YEAR'S END. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S, WARMEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR/GULF COAST.
429 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015 CIRCULATION AROUND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL HOLD A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL THROUGH MID-WEEK. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WHICH INDICATED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT OR DEVELOPING WARM FRONT SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE DEEPENING MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.
949 PM PST SAT DEC 26 2015 Low clouds and patchy freezing fog will continue tonight for some areas.
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH HAS JUST CLEARED THE DFW METROPLEX WHERE MULTIPLE TORNADOES HAVE OCCURRED. EXPECT SURGE OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER ON SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS ACROSS TX AND THE COLD FRONT ACCELERATES INTO OUR REGION.
Ridge axis has shifted inland and its positive tilt has allowed some cloudiness associated with the offshore trof and front to spread across the Nrn mtns and extreme Nrn Sac Vly. This next front/low pressure system will move through the area Sunday into Monday.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE U. AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. MOZLEY UPPER LOW LIFTS FROM TX INTO MISSOURI SUN NIGHT AND MON. WHILE NEXT TROUGH DROPS SOUTH INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN. GREAT BASIN TROUGH THEN SWINGS EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TUE. BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TROUGH MOVES EAST WED. SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE SLOW TO END OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND COULD PERSIST INTO THU BEFORE TROUGH FINALLY SAGS SOUTH OF COLORADO. AS SEVERAL SURGES OF COOLER AIR DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS STRONGLY ACROSS THE WRN U.
A STACKED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION EARLY MONDAY WILL ENCOUNTER THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION.
1126 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015 THE PRESSURE RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DIRECT A SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL. THE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND THE PRESSURE RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT DEPICTING A SLIGHT MOISTURE INCREASE SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH LIFTING NORTHWARD. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT OR DEVELOPING WARM FRONT SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE DEEPENING MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
222 AM MST SUN DEC 27 2015 THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TAKE ITS NORTHEAST TRACK INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA/SOUTHWEST MISSOURI MONDAY. BY MONDAY EVENING THE LOW SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHCENTRAL IOWA.
THE HIGH OVERHEAD AND NEW SNOW COVER WILL ALSO LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY FOR SUNDAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS THE POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVG ACROSS EXTRM NRN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS INVADED THE AREA BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE FCST AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING SO PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN MINIMAL TODAY. AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS EWD JOURNEY. IT APPEARS THE SW AND SCNTRL TX PNHDL INCLUDING PSBLY KAMA STAND TO RECEIVE SOME OF THE HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH THIS STORM BASED ON CURRENT MODEL PROGS. THEN ONLY THE NERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION.
HRRR is close to current warm front position, if a bit too far north. slightly less than 3" along the lower Ohio river. As the Low lifts out Monday, anticipate strong/gusty gradient winds to sweep across the region and last into early Monday night, after which the gradient begins to relax.
THIS WILL KEEP AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUING THROUGH 27. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF A INTERSTATE 90. 18Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST FROM MISSOURI INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN.
1122 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015 THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME PATCHY VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE LINGERING AROUND PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH THE REMNANTS OF LAST NIGHTS WEATHER SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS THE COLDER AIR SINKS SOUTH. A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY ON MONDAY. A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET IS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA AS WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WRAP AROUND THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW.
The strong Winter Storm System, with a deep upper low, is still on track to move from far northern Mexico this evening, then slowly northeastward into west Texas on Sunday. Snow is forecast to spread well northward from the main upper low and into parts of southwest and south central Kansas, with the bulk of the snow after midnight. More accumulations are expected as the upper low moves northeastward with another 2 to 4 inches on Sunday. Overnight lows will range from the upper teens west and north of Dodge City to the low to mid 20s southeast. The intense Winter Storm, with an associated compact upper low will continue to track from west Texas on Sunday night, then into Oklahoma on Monday.
A RIDGE EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL REMAIN RESILIENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CURRENTLY ALIGNED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES KEEPS A DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY PROFILE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE WINDS WILL SLACKEN HOWEVER AS THIS AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SLIGHT CHANCE WILL BE KEPT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE WORK WEEK AS WELL THANKS TO THE LINGERING AFFECTS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGING. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLACKEN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE AXIS FINALLY SETTLES FURTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD.
STILL NOT BUYING THE CLOUD SHIELD AND PRECIPITATION FROM THE NAM OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES FROM THE MIDWEST CLOSED LOW. LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WEST FOR TUE NIGHT/WED WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTING AN INVERTED SFC TROF EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20F UNTIL THU-FRI WHEN MODELS SUGGEST MID-LVL TROUGHING SHIFTING EAST.
316 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. ANOMALOUS DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO DOMINATE SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER. THE COLD FRONT/STORM SYSTEM THAT IS BRING SEVERE WEATHER AND SNOW TO TEXAS WILL REACH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT. ITS QUITE POSSIBLE THIS HIGH RISK MAY EXTEND INTO MONDAY.