Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front brings unsettled conditions mid week. Cooler and drier high to end the work week. Warm air advection with weak over running as warm front approaches from the west-southwest. Highs will be 10 to 15 degrees warmer than what we saw yesterday. A cold front will approach from the northwest Monday increasing clouds and chances for showers.
It appears the warm front has pushed to the north of the metro area this morning, causing temperatures to rise into the upper 60s south of the front and a fairly sharp rise in ceiling heights from north to south. with the bulk of this activity just south of the north- ward moving warm front. /ISSUED 415 AM CST Sun Feb 5 2017/ Low clouds, drizzle & patchy areas of -ra, fog are being observed early this morning as a warm front makes its way inland.
The higher returns have exited the area and much of the moisture has exited as well. Some locations have reported freezing rain and even some sleet as model soundings do support a 1 degree Celsius warm layer. Temps have been nearly steady or slowly increasing due to the developing southwesterly flow bringing in the warmer air. For tonight, cloud cover will once again be on the increase ahead of the next system as low develops over the lower MS valley and lifts north with overrunning arriving into Kentucky by Monday morning.
Models are similar in bringing precip into our area by around 06Z as the trough swings inland. At the lower elevations around 1-2 inches of rain possible down into the foothills while the San Joaquin Valley can see around 1/2 inch in Merced County tapering down to a couple of tenths in the south end and in the desert zones.
1013 AM EST Sun Feb 5 2017 Behind a departing cold front, weak high pressure will build into the area today and tonight, allowing some sun with just a few clouds today.
while a stronger trof moves into the Pac NW. This stronger trof will arrive here Tue. The flow will be progressive with a broadening ridge moving over the Plns Fri. as a trof moves onshr in the W and presses deeper inland Sat. This high will depart into the Mid MS Vly Thu with a warm front developing from MT- TX. Tue: Cold frontal passage. Cooler. but still a little warmer than normal. Dramatically warmer with widespread 50s/60s looking likely.
North of the front will be cooler 20s and 30s. Models are picking up on the stratus pretty well, with near complete saturation in the lower levels of the atmosphere in the post-frontal airmass as it pushes south.
551 AM EST Sun Feb 5 2017 VFR conditions under high pressure through the TAF period.
In addition to this there will be a low developing out over the Plains with a warm front extending into Western Iowa around 06Z and through a fair portion of the forecast area by 12Z.
Poor aviation conditions continue over the region along and west of stationary warm frontal boundary from Corpus Christi to east of Beeville. The warm front will move inland today with ceilings improving to MVFR at ALI/CRP/VCT from 16-17Z while the improvement waits until 19Z for LRD area. Warm front has been stationary overnight along a line from Baffin Bay to Corpus Christi to Goliad. The frontal boundary will continue moving inland today with warmer temperatures expected. Fog could also develop along the coast as warmer air moves over the cooler shelf waters.
516 AM EST Sun Feb 5 2017 Low pressure will approach from the west today. The low will track north of Maine tonight drawing a cold front across the region. The low will exit across the maritimes Monday.
1136 PM MDT MON SEP 26 2016 A warming trend will continue over the next few days as upper-level ridging continues to build into the region.
Another picture perfect early autumn day with ridging aloft keeping it warm and dry. Warmer than yesterday based on thickness changes and 700 mb temperatures near 10 Celsius.
The large upper level low currently over the western Great Lakes region will gradually shift southward towards Kentucky throughout the short term.
345 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016 WV imagery shows West Texas and Southeast New Mexico in a col, between a renegade cut-off low over Baja, and an upper trough north of the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, upper-lvl ridging will develop from the south, resulting in a general warming trend.
Today's weather should be a repeat of yesterday's, with mostly sunny skies, westerly winds gusting up to 25 mph at times, and temps rising into the lower to middle 70s by this afternoon. Short term models also bring a short wave around the back side of the low pressure area tonight. Cooler than normal temperatures, diurnal cloudiness and a few periods of light rain showers - mainly in eastern Illinois - will be the main weather features from mid-week into the weekend. The medium range models are in slightly better agreement on the position of the main weather maker, an upper low expected to settle into parts of the Midwest through the end of the week.
/issued 345 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016/ WV imagery shows West Texas and Southeast New Mexico in a col, between a renegade cut-off low over Baja, and an upper trough north of the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, upper-lvl ridging will develop from the south, resulting in a general warming trend.
Ridge axis stretches from northern Utah to central Saskatchewan this morning.
High pressure will provide a dry day today, then an upper level low will move into the area and loiter into the weekend. /Today/ High pressure will remain in control of the weather across central Indiana today.
Temperatures are expected to be warmer today and tomorrow compared to yesterday.
Went with highs closer to the warmer NAM MOS temperatures which supports the RAP forecast soundings that show mixing up into the 850-800 layer by this afternoon. Both the GFS and NAM are showing a weak upper trough moving through Missouri and Illinois from the northwest which will bring an attendant surface cold front into the CWA between 06-12Z. This trough will produce some weak mid-level ascent, but have no moisture to work with, so only expect partly cloudy skies with its passage and no rain.
The low levels of the atmosphere still remain relatively dry, which will hinder convective potential again today.
A low pressure system over central Baja California will move north into southern California tonight.
428 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016 Synopsis: Deep-layer trough will remain focused to the west of Florida into the weekend.
152 AM MDT TUE SEP 27 2016 Early morning WV imagery and RAP upper level analysis shows large scale ridging across the Intermountain West extending northwards across the Canadian Rockies. Two closed upper low are sandwiched on either side of this upper level ridge: one over the Great Lakes, and another over the Baja Peninsula. Our CWA remains predominantly under the influence of the upper level ridge. At the surface, high pressure remains in place over our CWA.
220 AM MDT Tue Sep 27 2016 Water vapor shows upper ridge extending through the nrn rockies and nrn plains.
Coverage is not looking to be as high as forecast earlier due to some drier air, so the forecast has been updated to reflect the lower rain chances.
Synoptic Setup: Short term begins with a ridge running up the front range from Colorado to Wyoming then pealing off north into eastern Montana and Saskatchewan. Hot high pressure underlying the ridge reaches west into Nevada and California. A large trough has developed over the Gulf of Alaska and moved inland over northern British Columbia and Alberta.
Overall, a quiet forecast is in store for the short term as we have high pressure sitting over the Central Plains.
528 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016 Dry air behind cold front pushing east of the I95 corridor will provide mostly sunny and pleasant conditions today.
1143 PM MDT MON SEP 26 2016 The upper ridge in place over the northern and central Rockies will move east over the high plains on Tuesday. The cool area of high pressure at the surface moves into the southern high plains overnight with a weak westerly near surface flow across the forecast area. As a result of clear skies and weak west surface winds, expect temperatures to rise into the lower to mid 80s by Tuesday afternoon.
253 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016 Curved upper level ridge extending from Texas to the Great Basin will slowly become more meridional over the next 24 hours. This low is interacting with TC Roslyn in the Pacific and helping to stream upper level moisture into the region. The Baja low will drift NW into SRN California today as the ridge shifts westward.
1114 PM MDT Mon Sep 26 2016 Closed low will remain in place over the great lakes with nw conus troughing ongoing. This will support local ridging with associated waa over the northern plains under dry nw flow. Otherwise, warmer conds expected tue with highs in the 70s and a few 80s. Northerly upper flow will continue through mid week as high pressure remains entrenched over the western CONUS. As the upper ridge shifts east, an upper low off the Pacific Northwest Coast will deepen, transitioning the flow over to the southwest.
A deep, vertically stacked low pressure system lies just north of the Great Lakes. Associated with this system is what we expect to be our first cold front passage of the fall later this week. Ahead of the front lies locally higher pressure over the southeastern states at the lower levels with a weak upper level trough still hanging around over central FL.
except warmer near Lake Michigan. Latest models continued earlier noted trend of developing cutoff upper low in our region through the second half of the week. Initial PV filament and associated low level trough axis will rotate into our NW CWA Tuesday night.
310 AM MDT TUE SEP 27 2016 Moist air will continue to flow into southern New Mexico and west ahead of a low pressure system to the west.
Again, although just slightly warmer, still around average.
A broad area of high pressure over the Great Basin prevented moisture circulating around the upper-level low centered over the central Baja Peninsula from entering southern Colorado and Utah. Models indicated that the low will move slightly northward during the day, but only so far as to spread thin cirrus over the Four Corners region. The closed low over Baja begins to slide northward as a low pressure system off British Columbia's coast drifts to the south. Moisture circulating the low center begins to just brush southeast Utah and may generate an isolated storm over Navajo mountain toward sunrise.
Rain showers will also continue overnight across the Minnesota Arrowhead and northern wisconsin zones near the low center where instability is the greatest. Summary: A large area of low pressure will dig from the Great Lakes to the central Appalachians, only to then retrograde or lift back north to the central or eastern Great Lakes over the weekend. The low will help maintain easterly flow across the Northland through the weekend, but temperatures will be slightly warmer than normal with highs primarily in the lower 60s and low temperatures in the low to middle 40s.
Another dry and warm day on tap for Tuesday as high pressure sits over the Great Basin.
356 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016 Upper level analysis shows a low centered over the the Great Lakes that extends well south and a ridge across the western half of the country. At the surface, dewpoints reveal that the cold front is just now moving into the the CWA in southwestern Mississippi and continues west into central Louisiana.
300 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016 An area of low pressure off the coast of SC/GA this morning will move northeast today, passing off the coast of NC tonight.
302 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016 Upper low remaining nearly stationary tonight over the Great Lakes into southern Canada, while our area remains cool and clear with light westerly winds. Overnight hours are also clear with light winds, but upper low sends a back door front into the area toward sunrise, which may keep northern counties in the upper 40s with middle 50s to the better mixed farther southern counties. Ridging dominates the local weather through at least the early portions of the weekend.
158 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016 Showers will exit southeast PA early this morning with continued clearing from west to east behind cold front.
Latest water vapor imagery in addition to RAP 500mb analysis shows a large upper level low spinning over the northern Great Lakes with a building ridge over the western states.
349 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016 Mostly sunny today with west winds this morning becoming northwest and gusty as a backdoor cold front moves into north central Nebraska this afternoon and moves across western Nebraska through the night. Continued mostly clear tonight as upper ridge pushes east on the backside of upper low to the east continues its trek to the southeast into southern Great Lakes. Warmer over night with lows in the mid 40s. Models trended a little slowly with the movement of the upper level closed low that meanders across the Great Lakes region and the Ohio river valley now through the weekend. Meanwhile a ridge across the western CONUS will shift east and flatten as the trough to the east holds strong. Also seeing a trough dig towards the Pacific NW by the weekend.
236 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016 Broad upper level cyclone will sink southward and down into the Ohio Valley and northern part of the Tennessee Valley as we go through the work week.
A deep upper low continues to spin north of the Great Lakes this afternoon, keeping the Northern Plains in northwest flow aloft.
354 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016 High pressure will provide for dry conditions today. An upper low will then return the chance for showers and seasonal temperatures through the end of the week. With southwest flow continuing on the periphery of the broad upper low over the northern Great lakes, and some slight warming aloft, temperatures should be very close to average today. This may allow for some locations to fall into the upper 30's or low 40's so long as clouds associated with the upper low remain north of the region.
High pressure aloft will provide another day of dry and stable conditions. Ridge of high pressure will break down Tuesday afternoon. A weak cold front then pushes south out of Canada Tuesday evening.
330 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016 West- southwesterly upper level flow associated with an upper low over the Baja of California was streaming mid and high level clouds across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas early this morning. This cloud cover is expected to decrease from north to south during the day today as the upper level flow becomes more northwesterly in response to a closed low currently located over the northern part of the Great Lakes Region dropping southward toward the Ohio River Valley. These conditions should help afternoon temperatures to be a few degrees warmer today compared to yesterday for most locations.
527 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016 High pressure will provide for dry conditions today. An upper low will then return the chance for showers and seasonal temperatures through the end of the week. With southwest flow continuing on the periphery of the broad upper low over the northern Great lakes, and some slight warming aloft, temperatures should be very close to average today. This may allow for some locations to fall into the upper 30's or low 40's so long as clouds associated with the upper low remain north of the region.
An upper level trough currently over the Northern Great Lakes will sink southward today bringing breezy northwesterly winds to the eastern CWA. Under sunny skies, high temperatures should warm into the upper 60s in NE South Dakota, to the lower 80s in western SD. The upper level trough should be located over southeastern Lake Michigan later tonight with low stratus possible as far west as eastern SD.
Building high pressure will bring dry conditions with a warming trend into the middle portion of the week.
627 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016 High pressure will provide for dry conditions today. An upper low will then return the chance for showers and seasonal temperatures through the end of the week. With southwest flow continuing on the periphery of the broad upper low over the northern Great lakes, and some slight warming aloft, temperatures should be very close to average today. This may allow for some locations to fall into the upper 30's or low 40's so long as clouds associated with the upper low remain north of the region.
A gradual cooling trend is expected to begin on Tuesday as an upper ridge drifts slowly east through the week. This and a gradual cooling trend is in store for the next few days as an upper trough deepens off the Pacific Northwest coast.
Weak upper level ridging will continue to build into the Central Plains today and tonight along with a weak surface pressure gradient. An upper low over the Great Lakes will build into the Ohio Valley tonight. Highs today will be warmer and in the mid to upper 80s as weak downslope warming ensues.
358 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016 The much anticipated first cold front of fall has pushed into the Gulf early this morning, with scattered showers ahead of this feature continuing across the offshore waters. Early morning water vapor imagery showed the upper low associated with our cold front churning over Ontario, with another cutoff low located farther southwest over Baja California. As a result of the drier air's slow progression, deeper moisture will remain pooled along the coastal counties and an isolated shower or possibly thunderstorm will be possible as temperatures rise into the low 80s (even with cloud cover today). The cold front will continue to push farther into the Gulf tonight, shunting rain chances farther away from the region as it exits.
325 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016 The large upper level low currently over the western Great Lakes region will gradually shift southward towards Kentucky throughout the short term.
For tonight, winds drop off with lows again just below seasonal normals - in the lower to mid 40s, with some localized cooler spots. Will see an increase in clouds from east central SD through southwestern MN/northwest IA later in the night as a vort lobe wraps southward around the upper level low situated over the western Great Lakes region.
Have updated the forecast to include patchy advection fog overnight near lakes and rivers, to account for much cooler air moving in over the warm water that has seen little cool down for the past several weeks.
659 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016 Dry air behind cold front pushing east of the I95 corridor will provide mostly sunny and pleasant conditions today.
This is in large part due to the first cold front of the season passing over the TN Valley, yesterday.
254 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016 Welcome to Fall! Deep, closed upper low located over the Great Lakes region this morning will rotate south into the Ohio Valley during the next 48-72 hours. Deterministic models seem to agree that the center of the upper low will remain just east of the forecast area, but this still may be close enough to generate a few showers over our eastern counties as we head toward mid week/late week. Would not be too surprised to see some cold air funnel cloud reports by that time, esp just east of the forecast area, where sb capes at or above 500 J/KG may be generated underneath the upper low. The consensus is to sink a cut off upper low from the great lakes region south/southwestward over central KY toward the end of the week.
1141 PM MDT MON SEP 26 2016 Current weather pattern shows a rex block with high pressure over the Great Basin and a closed low pressure system spinning over the Baja Peninsula near the old Mexico-Arizona border. Our CWA is largely being influenced by this high pressure area, providing sunny skies and dry conditions with weak winds aloft. Some high level clouds may seep into the southern reaches of our CWA late Tuesday as the low over the Baja gets pushed northward into Arizona, but overall dry conditions will prevail.
241 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016 Main concern in the short term is rain chances with large upper low spinning through the Great Lakes Region for the next few days. Satellite imagery shows the low spinning over eastern Lake Superior, and it will slowly drop south today.
Broad upper level cyclone will sink southward and down into the Ohio Valley and northern part of the Tennessee Valley as we go through the work week.
At 2 PM the cold front was located just north of Eagle Pass to just south of a San Antonio and La Grange. Deeper convection through the afternoon and early evening will be confined along and ahead of the cold front across the southern CWA, where low level forcing and instability is maximized.
439 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016 Dry air behind cold front pushing east of the I95 corridor will provide mostly sunny and pleasant conditions today.
A low pressure system currently over Mexico will gradually move northward across Arizona over the next few days.
421 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016 A cold front will move east of the Blue ridge this morning, then stall over the piedmont this afternoon.
154 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016 Nearly stationary upper level low pressure just north of Lake Superior will push and occluded front through the North Country overnight, accompanied by some light rain showers.
320 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016 Expansive upper level low to plague the region right through the weekend, with the wild card being the amount of Atlantic moisture wrapping back into the Great Lakes Region during the end of the work week.
The low that moved through the state over the weekend has stalled over the Great Lakes and so the pressure gradient today will support a 15 to 20 mph wind through and up to 50 miles west of the James River valley. For tonight, thermal profiles in the west are warmer supporting lows no lower than the lower 40s.
422 AM MDT TUE SEP 27 2016 Upper ridge and light northerly flow aloft will keep dry weather over the region again today. Old upper low begins to migrate northward into southern CA and southwest AZ tonight.
328 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016 Latest satellite imagery showed a large upper trough extending from the Upper Mississippi Valley region to the MidSouth. The associated cold front was over the southeast portion of MS where dewpoints were in the lower 70s. Temperatures will be on the cooler side with highs in lower to upper 80s. This will occur as the upper trough expands southward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. With 40s and 50s dewpoints along with light winds lows will range from the lower 50s to the lower 60s.
339 AM MDT Tue Sep 27 2016 An upper ridge from northern California down through Texas is between two upper lows, one over the Great Lakes region and one over Baja. This ridge will bring warm and dry conditions under clear skies. Warm advection at mid levels will bring above average temperatures, with readings in the low to mid 80s over the plains and in the upper 50s to mid 70s for the high country. Even though clear skies are expected overnight, warmer daytime temperatures will produce slightly warmer overnight temperatures compared to this mornings readings.
135 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016 A cold front is crossing the area tonight though showers and thunderstorms have largely moved east of the area.
Weak isentropic ascent behind the cold front is resulting in very light showers along and north of a Bellville to Cleveland line. /ISSUED / The much anticipated first cold front of fall has pushed into the Gulf early this morning, with scattered showers ahead of this feature continuing across the offshore waters. Early morning water vapor imagery showed the upper low associated with our cold front churning over Ontario, with another cutoff low located farther southwest over Baja California. As a result of the drier air's slow progression, deeper moisture will remain pooled along the coastal counties and an isolated shower or possibly thunderstorm will be possible as temperatures rise into the low 80s (even with cloud cover today). The cold front will continue to push farther into the Gulf tonight, shunting rain chances farther away from the region as it exits.