Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
18Z surface data has high pressure over the Ohio Valley with areas of low pressure along the front range of the Rockies. Decreasing winds and a gradual wind shift is anticipated late in the period, as a cold front makes inroads.
The 18Z NAM has backed off on precipitation in far east central Kansas Sunday afternoon, but maintained across southeast Kansas and into southwest Missouri within the moisture axis and ahead of the weak mid level trough moving across northern Oklahoma. Depending on how long they last over east central Kansas will affect the highs. Currently have temps in the low to mid 60s, but could only be in the 50s if it holds well into the afternoon hours.
With a relatively warm start tomorrow morning, winds turning out of the southwest, and the lower atmosphere warming up; have kept with the going forecast of highs on Sunday in the mid 60s despite increasing cloudiness.
633 PM EST Sat Feb 29 2020 A ridge of high pressure will push east of the area tonight setting up a period of stronger south winds for Sunday. These south winds will provide much warmer conditions for Sunday with high temperatures from the upper 40s across south central Lower Michigan to the mid 50s into west central Indiana.
/issued 321 PM CST Sat Feb 29 2020/ High pressure over the Mid-South will begin shifting east tonight. Lows will be warmer with readings in the upper 30s to upper 40s.
359 PM MST Sat Feb 29 2020 The trough continues to spread into the Pacific Northwest, and models continue to split the flow as it progresses east. At the same time, the cold front will sweep southward across the state Sunday morning, providing a surface focusing mechanism, and northerly winds will also provide orographic lift, mainly for the Wind River Range.
Temps will be slightly cooler than today, but they won't feel as nice, with the breezy north winds and partly cloudy skies.
746 PM EST Sat Feb 29 2020 An upper level trough over southeast Canada and the northeast will lift out of the region late tonight and Sunday. With the departing trough, milder air will return to the region beginning tomorrow with above average temperatures once again for much of the upcoming week.
High pressure will be drifting over the area tonight, providing calm winds and clear skies that will allow temperatures to drop into the 20s in most spots. The dry airmass coupled with high pressure, light winds, and clear skies will lead to ideal radiational cooling conditions tonight. Temperatures will drop down into the low to mid 20s across most of the area before daybreak on Sunday.
822 PM EST Sat Feb 29 2020 An upper level trough over southeast Canada and the northeast will lift out of the region late tonight and Sunday. With the departing trough, milder air will return to the region beginning tomorrow with above average temperatures once again for much of the upcoming week.
927 PM EST Sat Feb 29 2020 High pressure builds towards the local area overnight then continues offshore Sunday into Sunday night.
626 PM EST Sat Feb 29 2020 High pressure over the forecast area Sunday morning will shift off the coast during the afternoon.
Aloft, a broad upper-level ridge was building over the Upper Mississippi Valley and is expected to transition to a more zonal flow overnight. Low temperatures will be about 10 degrees above normal in the low to middle 20s. By early Sunday morning, a weak cold front will be nearing western Wisconsin. Model guidance indicates the low-level moisture ahead of the cold front will remain trapped by a strong temperature inversion through Sunday evening. The weak cold front will move across the region Sunday evening. Limited moisture is expected with this cold front, so dry conditions will prevail.
A cold front will gradually sag southward through the forecast area Sunday evening, and with ample moisture and marginal instability, scattered showers and potentially a few rumbles of thunder will be possible primarily over the southeast half of the CWA.
520 PM CST Sat Feb 29 2020 At 2 PM, southerly winds are bringing warmer air into the region. Due to this, the high temperatures were warmed by 3 to 6F.
Upper air analysis shows a large ridge over the rockies this afternoon, shifting eastward as we move into Sunday. Prior to the cold front, we could see the development of patchy fog similar to this morning if the upper cloud cover remains light. Kept with MOS guidance for winds Sunday to better capture the higher post frontal gusts expected. Despite the passing cold front and wind shift, temps only drop slightly for Sunday, with highs still expected to reach into the upper 30s and low 40s. Upper level ridging is forecast to be over the western CONUS at the start of the period. By Saturday morning, the ridge has migrated to being over the central part of the CONUS, with west-southwest flow developing over this CWA.
434 PM MST Sat Feb 29 2020 Upper level ridge axis centered from Saskatchewan southward into the Central Plains will continue to move eastward tonight. Southern stream vort max centered along trough axis extending off the CA/OR coast will slowly meander through the southwest US this weekend. A cold front will push southward later tonight, crossing from NW to SE after 03z and will usher in a slight chance for some light snow/rain showers, mainly across NE WY and SW SD through Sunday.
Light winds this evening will gradually establish a northwest component at speeds around 10 mph in advance of an approaching cold front. a cold front moves through during the day shifting winds to the northeast at speeds initially of 10 to 15 mph by late morning then slowly increasing in the mid to late afternoon at speeds of 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts. For the overnight hours 850-500mb humidity increases across the western half of the area through midnight as upper trough approaches. Low temperatures in the low to upper 20s.
414 PM EST Sat Feb 29 2020 A ridge of high pressure will push east of the area tonight setting up a period of stronger south winds for Sunday. These south winds will provide much warmer conditions for Sunday with high temperatures from the upper 40s across south central Lower Michigan to the mid 50s into west central Indiana.
High pressure has become centered near the mouth of the Mississippi River this afternoon and lower pressure has moved into the plains. Aloft, the southern jet is beginning to stream cirrus into the area ahead of a trough that is moving into the Pacific Coast.
613 PM EST Sat Feb 29 2020 Dry and chilly high pressure will build over the Southeast states through Sunday.
434 PM EST Sat Feb 29 2020 Secondary cold front has moved through the region as evident by both visible satellite and BYX radar. Temperatures came down a couple degrees mainly across the Lower and Middle Keys. The Upper Keys were sheltered by a north to northeast drainage winds which allowed them to rise into the lower 70s. Other than evidence of the weak cold front moving through, BYX radar is precipitation is free.
As high pressure shifts east into the west Atlantic Sunday, a relatively light onshore flow that develops will begin to modify the cool airmass in place. It will remain dry with skies mostly sunny, and highs will be slightly warmer in the low 70s across the interior and Treasure Coast, while along Volusia and Brevard coast, max temps will still range from the mid to upper 60s.
Saturday afternoon, a warm front extended across central North Dakota and will move east through the region during the evening. A cold front will then move southeast through the region late tonight and Sunday. Short term forecast concerns are gusty winds associated with the cold frontal passage and some marginal precipitation chances. VFR conditions will prevail across the region until a cold front from Canada enters the picture late tonight. Low- level wind shear also appears likely with the passing of the cold front with southwest surface winds around 10 knots and west northwest winds around 35 knots just a few hundred feet off the deck.
A few showers will be possible this evening across portions of Del Norte County as a cold front moves south. Frost or freezing temperatures are possible tonight and again Sunday night.
Satellite and radar imagery currently show showers in north central Idaho and western Montana as a closed upper level low pressure system traverses across Alberta. Flow shifts to the northwest behind the departing trough.
321 PM CST Sat Feb 29 2020 Currently have zonal upper flow in place across the Plains with a sharp upper trough exiting the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, lee troughing is in place with strong return flow across the southern and central Plains. This setup will allow for a weak cold front to sink south tonight into Sun with decent return flow remaining from the southern Plains into eastern KS. By 12z Mon, powerful upper low will be tracking across southern CA/northern Baja. Models continue the trend of slower and further south for the upper low digging over the southwest CONUS. Good model agreement in upper ridging sliding over the Plains for the end of the work week, with a broad area of southwest flow aloft spreading over the western CONUS into the Rockies for the weekend.
255 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2020 Southwester surface will continue to bring moisture and warm air into the Ozarks this morning and into today as low pressure and a cold front moves across the plains towards the area today. The cold front will have made its way across most the region by sunrise Monday morning.
1041 PM MST Sat Feb 29 2020 Upper level ridge axis centered from Saskatchewan southward into the Central Plains will continue to move eastward tonight. Southern stream vort max centered along trough axis extending off the CA/OR coast will slowly meander through the southwest US this weekend. A cold front will push southward later tonight, crossing from NW to SE after 03z and will usher in a slight chance for some light snow/rain showers, mainly across NE WY and SW SD through Sunday.
The tightening pressure gradient on the back side of the ridge will allow increasing southerly winds to move into the area with a warm front today, sending temperatures soaring 20 degrees over Saurday's highs. Winds will be from the south to southwest in the 10- 15 mph range, with gusts to around 25 mph at times, helping to send the warmer air back into the region. After sunset, cloud levels will lower as moisture levels increase behind the warm front and ahead of a weak cold front moving through the upper Mississippi Valley.
Given the partial clearing of the high cloud cover and the very light south winds across these areas, did lower temperatures a few degrees to the north and east. Low ceilings may begin as the low VFR variety but should quickly become MVFR shortly thereafter as they overspread our airspace through the next 24 hours. By mid to late morning look for sustained south winds near 10-15kts with gusts as high as 25kts with the higher gusts once again where the pressure gradient will be the strongest, across the western half of our airspace.
Upper air analysis shows a large ridge over the rockies this afternoon, shifting eastward as we move into Sunday.
Monday brings a cold front to the region; one that sags through the TX Panhandle overnight and stalls somewhere in our FA. For the big event of the week, there is better model agreement with the upper low continuing to dig south down the Baja out of SOCAL.
1035 PM CST Sat Feb 29 2020 At 2 PM, southerly winds are bringing warmer air into the region. Due to this, the high temperatures were warmed by 3 to 6F.
1255 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2020 Warmer temperature and dry weather will return today. A building ridge will induce southerly flow, allowing temperatures to rebound significantly today. As the axis of the ridge moves east, warm advection will continue and moisture advection will increase. Showers overspread the area on Monday, ahead of a weak cold front, which will press through Ohio. Cold front will get hung up over the area Monday night.
1241 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2020 Seasonably cool today with sunshine, as Canadian high pressure moves across the Carolinas. As the high reaches Bermuda Monday, a noticeable warming trend will begin through early week.
Given the partial clearing of the high cloud cover and the very light south winds across these areas, did lower temperatures a few degrees to the north and east.
Monday's forecast is actually beginning to show a wider spread amongst the models as the NAM is becoming increasing bullish with pushing a cold front through all but the southwestern corner of the forecast area while the GFS is far weaker only bringing the front into northeastern quarter to third of the forecast area before stalling. Have opted for more of an even blend with the high temperature forecast, however, as the NAM seems overly aggressive with the extent of post-frontal stratus.
Winds are south to southeasterly around 10 mph and temps are still hovering around freezing. Though dewpoints in the lower to middle 20s, warm air advection winds should increase to 10-15mph, keeping temps fairly steady to slowly rising. Clear conditions, with the latest moisture channel satellite data depicting upper ridge having moved to the east, now extending from the Dakotas into northern TX.
349 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2020 High pressure builds towards the local area overnight then continues offshore Sunday into Sunday night. Other than a few high clouds over the lower Eastern Shore/Northern Neck, expecting a clear sky overnight with lows in the low-mid 20s inland. A cold front will be pressing E through the Great Lakes/Midwest-OH Valley by Mon. GFS basically has a cold frontal passage into Thu then washes out any trailing/secondary system by late Thu into Thu night. Winds continue to diminish through the morning hrs and the high will shift off the SE coast this aftn, turning the winds locally to the southwest, generally 10-15 kts.
There will be some low clouds around at times which could impact the high temperatures if they persist into the afternoon. A weakening cold front pushes in for Monday which could allow for more cloud cover.
Temps will be much warmer on Sunday despite increasing high clouds as the eastern U. S low moves away and a weak upper level ridge moves across our region. Started precip chances in the far west by 00Z Monday as moisture rapidly increases ahead of an approaching trough.
/issued 1036 PM CST Sat Feb 29 2020/ Forecast on track for a cool night but significantly warmer than last night. High pressure has become centered near the mouth of the Mississippi River this afternoon and lower pressure has moved into the plains. Aloft, the southern jet is beginning to stream cirrus into the area ahead of a trough that is moving into the Pacific Coast.
1019 PM MST Sat Feb 29 2020 The trough continues to spread into the Pacific Northwest, and models continue to split the flow as it progresses east. At the same time, the cold front will sweep southward across the state Sunday morning, providing a surface focusing mechanism, and northerly winds will also provide orographic lift, mainly for the Wind River Range.
319 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2020 High pressure over the forecast area this morning will shift off the coast during the afternoon.
Only a few thin streaks of cirrus out there ahead of an approaching upper ridge. As the ridge builds overhead on Sunday, temperatures will warm up some 4-8 degrees. With a dry air mass in place and clear skies, temperatures will fall into the 30s across much of the area, with below freezing temperatures confined to east Alabama.
This will team up with southerly sfc winds to allow max temps to range from the mid 50s in the northern Valley to the lower 60s in the central and southern Valley.
A strong cold front has entered western ND this evening.
1234 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2020 A ridge of high pressure will push east of the area tonight setting up a period of stronger south winds for Sunday. These south winds will provide much warmer conditions for Sunday with high temperatures from the upper 40s across south central Lower Michigan to the mid 50s into west central Indiana. Thereafter, CWA oscillates between a ridge, then split flow system through the rest of the week.
204 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2020 It has been a very mild evening, with most of the MPX area still above freezing at 2am. This warmth is due to the fact that we were in the heart of a thermal ridge out ahead of a cold front moving across the Dakotas overnight. Given how high we'll be starting out this morning, even a modest warming of 10 degrees today will net highs into the low to mid 40s for most of the area, so warmed forecast highs a degree or two for today, getting us near the 75th percentile in the model spread. Continued CAA tonight will allow temperatures to drop off into the teens west and 20s east, with highs Monday coming in about 10 degrees cooler than what we see today.
This warmer than normal trend will continue through much of the week as the core of arctic air progress further up into the Hudson Bay area mid-week.
Lows tonight will range from the lower 40s over the northeast portion of the forecast area to near 50 over much of the southern half of the region. Afternoon highs will generally range from the upper 50s over the higher terrain of the north to near 70 over the far south. Dynamics and instability associated with the trough will lead to isolated thunderstorms amidst widespread shower activity. Afternoon highs will range from the lower 60s over the northern higher terrain to the lower 70s over the far south.
A cold front should push southeast across the northern and central parts of the Plains the next 24 hours. Look for lows tonight to vary from the lower 30s in northeast NE to upper 30s or near 40 close to the MO/NE border. Highs Sunday will be a bit cooler than today, ranging from around 50 at the SD border to lower 60s in the far southeast parts of the forecast area at the KS and MO borders.
1036 PM CST Sat Feb 29 2020 Forecast on track for a cool night but significantly warmer than last night. High pressure has become centered near the mouth of the Mississippi River this afternoon and lower pressure has moved into the plains. Aloft, the southern jet is beginning to stream cirrus into the area ahead of a trough that is moving into the Pacific Coast.
High pressure will be drifting over the area tonight, providing calm winds and clear skies that will allow temperatures to drop into the 20s in most spots.
/issued 321 PM CST Sat Feb 29 2020/ High pressure over the Mid-South will begin shifting east tonight. Lows will be warmer with readings in the upper 30s to upper 40s. Models are showing the cold front sinking into the Mid-South on Monday.
1251 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2020 An upper level trough over southeast Canada and the northeast will lift out of the region late tonight and Sunday. With the departing trough, milder air will return to the region beginning tomorrow with above average temperatures once again for much of the upcoming week.
837 PM MST Sat Feb 29 2020 Cold front intensified as far as precipitation is concerned over the eastern zones with a decent coverage late this afternoon/early this evening. Precip is moving east and attention turns to cold front that is moving in from the northwest. Bigelbach PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Ridging continues to be the main upper level feature over Northeast Montana for now, but an upper level trough and surface cold front will move through the region later today and tonight bringing a return to cooler (and closer to seasonal normal) temperatures.
An upper level trough will continue moving over the region tonight with a few showers mainly over the mountains but decreasing through the night. An upper level ridge off the coast will begin to move inland on Sunday which will bring lighter winds and dry conditions under a cool northerly flow aloft.
As the high shifts eastward towards the Atlantic coast during the afternoon, southerly low level flow will set up over the forecast area. Axis of highest rain chances will shift north and south throughout this time with GFS and ECMWF having various solutions on placement and because of this the highest QPF for the week has shifted slightly south over portions of I85 on the west side and I20 on the east.
Light winds this evening will gradually establish a northwest component at speeds around 10 mph in advance of an approaching cold front. a cold front moves through during the day shifting winds to the northeast at speeds initially of 10 to 15 mph by late morning then slowly increasing in the mid to late afternoon at speeds of 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts. For the overnight hours 850-500mb humidity increases across the western half of the area through midnight as upper trough approaches. Low temperatures in the low to upper 20s. Low temperatures in the low to upper 20s.
203 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2020 An upper level trough over southeast Canada and the northeast will lift out of the region late tonight and Sunday. With the departing trough, milder air will return to the region beginning tomorrow with above average temperatures once again for much of the upcoming week.
1052 PM EST Sat Feb 29 2020 High pressure over the forecast area Sunday morning will shift off the coast during the afternoon.
Afternoon highs are expected to top out in the low to mid 60s. By the afternoon, cloud cover begins to increase as a warm front lifts northward through the area.
A mainly quiet weather pattern for the short term period with northwest flow aloft across the high plains. Light southerly winds and mild temperatures to start Sunday with a pre-frontal trough pushing across the CWA before sunrise turning winds out of the north to northwest. Winds will increase to 10-20 mph by mid morning as the gradient strengthens ahead of the cold front along with daytime heating mixing boundary layer winds to the surface.
High pressure will build back into the area early in the week.
Low amplitude wave shearing into the upper great lakes over the next 24 hours will draw an attendant weak cold front into the lower peninsula tonight.
A prefrontal trof will move through during the overnight with a wind shift. A backdoor cold front will also move through tomorrow, with a stiff northerly wind in its wake. Highs tomorrow will obviously be cooler in the wake of the fropa with widespread 60s. High pressure will prevail across the state on Monday. Much cooler highs will prevail with values in the 40s.
With a relatively warm start tomorrow morning, winds turning out of the southwest, and the lower atmosphere warming up; have kept with the going forecast of highs on Sunday in the mid 60s despite increasing cloudiness. A second, northern stream trough will provide additional ascent for showers on Monday night in close proximity to the front.
Temps will be slightly cooler than today, but they won't feel as nice, with the breezy north winds and partly cloudy skies. Temperatures on Monday will be in the low 40s during the afternoon, which should continue to end much threat to the snowfall.
1008 PM EST Sat Feb 29 2020 High pressure over the forecast area Sunday morning will shift off the coast during the afternoon.
Despite scattered to broken high clouds across the area, temperatures are in the lower to mid 60s, with Imperial the warmest at 69. Light southwest winds this evening will become west, then northwest after midnight as a cold front moves in. On Sunday, cooler air will move in behind the cold front. Highs from the low 40s northwest Sandhills to the lowers 50s across the southeastern zones. Meanwhile, a positively tilted upper trough will move across most of the Great Basin on Sunday. Pacific moisture will increase on the downstream side of the trough. A weak cold front moves in Monday night as a northern stream upper trough axis swings across.
1258 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2020 High pressure over the forecast area this morning will shift off the coast during the afternoon.
A wind shift for KBVO is also likely at the end of the period as a cold front begins to move into the area. A cold front will approach the area from the northwest which should trigger thunderstorm development across portions of southeast KS, southwest MO, and far northeast OK.