Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A broad area of high pressure aloft will remain centered near the four corners region through late in the week. Morning water vapor and H5 analysis depict an amplified ridge across the intermountain region, with center of circulation currently oriented over the 4-corners region. A deep pool of sub-trop moisture remains in place over northern Mexico/southern Arizona, with trends slowly advecting north up the lower Colorado valley.
On Tue, the upper ridge center will be over eastern UT and far western CO. Temps acrs the southeast plains on Tue are expected to be a little warmer, with highs in the 80s, with maybe some lower 90s, while the high valleys should mostly be in the lower 80s.
The cold front is pushing south into the northern Concho Valley and northern heartland areas, with a cumulus field in the destabilizing airmass ahead of it. Even with afternoon sunshine, temperatures will be cooler across our area Tuesday, with highs expected to be mostly in the upper 80s to near 90.
Conditions will continue to improve as we move through the day as a surface cold front moves south and east of the area. /Issued 1012 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019/ A cold front is slicing through southeast Oklahoma into west-central Arkansas with scattered showers in the vicinity of the boundary.
Well amplified ridge centered over the Rockies and trough over the Great Lakes keeps us in the cooler north-northwest flow aloft.
1123 AM MDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Water vapor shows upper ridge building into the northern Rockies with large scale subsidence/dry air over the northern plains. On Tuesday, a bit more return flow expected with highs well into the 80s as thermal ridge nudges eastward into eastern Wyoming. CAPE will increase but large scale subsidence should limit any thunderstorm development to the higher terrain of the Black Hills.
338 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 High pressure centered over the northern Plains will drop southeast through Tuesday and Tuesday night. Northerly flow on the eastern side of this high will bring cooler and drier air into the mid Mississippi Valley through the short term. The high should keep a mostly sunny sky over the forecast area on Tuesday. It should be another clear and cool night on Tuesday night as the high settles into western Missouri with similar temperatures as tonight in the mid 50s to low 60s. Carney The high will drift slowly east through the end of the week.
215 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 An expansive upper-level ridge is currently centered over the Four Corners, and will continue to build across the Plains tonight. Low temperatures for this evening are expected to drop from the upper 50s into the lower 60s.
915 AM MDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Upper level ridge nosing north from the 4-corners region through the Central and Northern Rocky Mtn States today will provide significant warming with many lower elevation locations seeing afternoon temperatures around 90. Hoenisch Strong high pressure overhead will result in much warmer temperatures through early this week, peaking Tuesday with temperatures in the upper-80s to mid-90s. Updated 507 AM MDT Mon Jul 22 2019 (12Z TAFs) VFR conditions will continue over North Central and Southwest Montana through at least the next 24 hours, as a high pressure ridge keeps the area mostly clear. The ridge will shift east a bit after 18Z, which will allow scattered mid level clouds and a few thunderstorms to develop over the mountains of Western and Southwest Montana, possibly impacting the KEKS, KWYS, KBZN, and KHLN terminals.
An expansive upper-level ridge is currently centered over the Four Corners, and will continue to build across the Plains tonight. Low temperatures for this evening are expected to drop from the upper 50s into the lower 60s.
639 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 It's a beautiful day out there this afternoon with highs in the upper 70s and dewpoints in the low 50s a welcome reprieve compared to the heat and humidity of last week. Similar conditions are expected tomorrow as the high remains centered over the region, but a streamer of vorticity pivoting around an upper level low well to our northeast may generate enough lift to kick off some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across western Wisconsin late tomorrow afternoon evening. Temperatures trend warmer towards the end of the week and into the weekend as the western ridge noses east into the central US and eventually flattens out over the weekend.
/issued 154 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019/ The upper ridge centered over the Four Corners region today will remain confined to the West as a strong trough digs over the Eastern US. This will keep the region on the east side of the high which is expected to move little over the next 10 days. A rare summer cold front has sagged into the area this morning bringing a change from our recent hot wx.
528 PM MDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Thunderstorms starting to percolate along the higher elevations this afternoon, being buoyed by midlevel impulse and daytime heating reaching the mid 80s in places. Conditions tomorrow will be similar to today, with daytime heating sparking thunderstorms on the higher elevations, and slowly drifting east during the afternoon.
There were associated with a cold front just entering the forecast area from the northwest.
945 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Cold front will continue to move southeastward through the evening. The cold front has completely crossed the forecast area, although some accumulating rain remains from Morgantown to the south and east. Upper trough will pivot across the region early Tuesday with a secondary wave deepening said trough. Temperatures will rebound by the weekend as southerly flow returns and high pressure slides off the Atlantic coast.
525 PM MDT Mon Jul 22 2019 PAC NW trough re-loading will continue through mid week, supporting downstream ridging over the Rockies.
Showers and thunderstorms are diminishing across S TX this evening, however additional storms are expected late tonight into early Tue morning as a weak cold front moves through S TX. A trough over the eastern United States is helping to bring a weak cold front through South Texas by Tuesday morning. Temperatures are expected to be a few degrees cooler for Tuesday and Tuesday night, but humidity will still remain Tuesday ahead of drier air moving in Tuesday night.
321 PM MDT Mon Jul 22 2019 A stout upper level ridge axis extended from the Four Corners into west/central MT. The upper level ridge amplifies over the Rockies Tuesday with N-NW flow aloft. This pattern favors widely scattered diurnal convection over the higher terrain of southeast WY, with some possibly drifting southeast over the adjacent foothills/high plains.
A cool dome of high pressure will move across western Kansas overnight as an upper level ridge axis remains nearly stationary over the Rockies. Clear/mostly clear skies and light winds will allow the lows tonight to fall back into the 50s across western Kansas. Record or near record low temperatures will be possible near and north of Garden City and Dodge City as temperatures fall back into the low to mid 50s by early Tuesday morning. Tuesday will be another cool day given that the easterly flow in the lower levels will be continuing across western Kansas.
Upper level ridge of high pressure remains positioned over the Rocky Mountain region this evening. which was allowing for upper level northerly flow to push into the Southern Plains behind a cold front moving south through Texas. high pressure centered over the Central Plains was continuing to drift southward with cooler and drier air spreading into Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. mostly clear to some passing mid/high clouds will be possible as high pressure continues to set up over the Plains. The cooler and drier air will also continue to work their way across the CWA with dewpoints falling into the upper 50s to mid 60s by early Tuesday morning.
/issued 302 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019/ Our attention is focused on an area of low pressure now over the western Bahamas. The core of this low pressure system is forecast to remain offshore and to our east, bringing increased shower and thunderstorm coverage from tonight into tomorrow, particularly across our eastern areas.
A stout upper level ridge axis extended from the Four Corners into west/central MT. The upper level ridge amplifies over the Rockies Tuesday with N-NW flow aloft. This pattern favors widely scattered diurnal convection over the higher terrain of southeast WY, with some possibly drifting southeast over the adjacent foothills/high plains.
Brisk north to northeast winds were ushering in a cooler and drier air mass. We may see a brief period of enhanced cloud cover and perhaps a sprinkle this evening across the eastern Ozarks, otherwise the big story for tonight will be the cooler temperatures. Highs in the lower to middle 80s can be expected with lows in the upper 50s to middle 60s. Canadian high pressure will continue to sag over the nation's midsection for the next couple of days, keeping the atmosphere stable.
High pressure will be displaced to our south and east tonight and Tuesday resulting in a prolonged period of west to southwest winds.
848 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 A cold front continues to push through the Mid-South this evening. /issued 258 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019/ Surface cold front had dropped to the I-40 corridor of west TN at 2 PM CDT / 19Z.
The high pressure system has setup over the Four Corners area and models keep it in place for the next few days.
603 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 High pressure centered over the northern Plains will drop southeast through Tuesday and Tuesday night. Northerly flow on the eastern side of this high will bring cooler and drier air into the mid Mississippi Valley through the short term. The high should keep a mostly sunny sky over the forecast area on Tuesday. It should be another clear and cool night on Tuesday night as the high settles into western Missouri with similar temperatures as tonight in the mid 50s to low 60s. Carney The high will drift slowly east through the end of the week.
Another hot day is expected today for interior NorCal as the area remains between strong high pressure centered over the Desert Southwest and low pressure off the PacNW. Current temperatures are around 5 to 8 degrees warmer than this time yesterday. The weak trough pushing through the PacNW tomorrow will brush NorCal.
534 PM MDT Mon Jul 22 2019 A stout upper level ridge axis extended from the Four Corners into west/central MT. The upper level ridge amplifies over the Rockies Tuesday with N-NW flow aloft. This pattern favors widely scattered diurnal convection over the higher terrain of southeast WY, with some possibly drifting southeast over the adjacent foothills/high plains.
717 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Cold front will continue to move southeastward through the evening. The cold front continues to make its way south, bringing noticeably cooler and drier air. Upper trough will pivot across the region early Tuesday with a secondary wave deepening said trough. Temperatures will rebound by the weekend as southerly flow returns and high pressure slides off the Atlantic coast.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 82 62 83 / 80 30 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 78 59 80 / 100 50 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 68 80 60 81 / 90 50 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 76 55 77 / 80 60 10 0 TN.
/issued 258 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019/ Surface cold front had dropped to the I-40 corridor of west TN at 2 PM CDT / 19Z.
Deterministic GEFS/ECMWF have a weak impulse under the high in southwest New Mexico shifting into SE AZ tomorrow afternoon. With the high center finally in a position where it wobbles back and forth overhead to northwest to northeast of us, the overall trend will be better than the past couple of weeks with up days and down days.
Current satellite imagery shows a lower stratus deck moving southward across the mid Mississippi Valley behind a cold front, so expect cloudy conditions to persist through the overnight hours. The cold front currently stretching from Corinth, MS to Nashville, TN is expected to enter northwest Alabama by midnight and will continue tracking east across the Valley overnight. Lingering shower activity should dissipate tomorrow morning as drier air pushes in behind the front and the upper level trough axis envelops the East Coast. Stronger cold air advection will push into the region as a high pressure system begins to slide into the Ohio Valley from the Northern Plains.
The cooler drier air was still off to the northwest, but winds have come around to the north behind the line of storms.
This allowed for a few rounds of island cloud line formation along the Lower and Middle Keys. Almost all activity is located in the vicinity of the Lower Keys and is trending downwards this hour. This depression will then rather quickly be slurped up by an amplifying mid latitude trough over the eastern United States. Showers and thunderstorms are moving away from the Lower Keys with improving conditions at the EYW terminal.
The synoptic-scale regime across the western half of the nation is forecast to evolve from early-week west coast troughing/central CONUS ridging to increasingly zonal flow aloft and a westward shift in the center of a mid-level high.
High pressure centered in the northern Plains bringing a delightful day to the dvn cwa. Tonight: High pressure bringing very comfortable weather in the short term. Tuesday: High pressure in control so plenty of sunshine with afternoon temperatures rising into the lower 80s, but dewpoints will be comfortable in the upper 50s. Tuesday night: An upper level disturbance riding southeast in the eastern trough may trigger isolated showers or storms in northern IL in the evening hours.
610 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Pleasant conditions in place across the area this afternoon with high pressure building in from the Northern Plains. High pressure builds in west of the Mississippi River tonight into Tuesday, keeping us in northerly surface flow. A weak mid-level trough/pv-advection drops southeast through portions of eastern/central WI Tuesday afternoon. High pressure continues to build overhead with lighter winds at the surface Tuesday Night which may lead to some valley fog.
623 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 221 PM CDT High pressure situated across the Plains will continue to build across the region through the period, but with the CWA remaining on the eastern edge of this high.
Dry and stable weather conditions are expected to continue through Tuesday morning, as an upper level ridge continues dominating the local area.
608 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019 A much cooler and less humid air mass will return to the region for much of the week as high pressure gradually builds into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will be seasonable with the upper trough axis to our east. Each day will feature slightly warmer temperatures and increasing moisture. Increasing moisture and warmer temperatures with the southwest flow will yield itself to some diurnal chances of showers/thunderstorms. This will be in response to the building of high pressure to our west while low pressure departs Long Island.
A ridge was over the Rckys. and a trof was over the GtLks/Midwest. These features will not change thru tomorrow other than the trof deepening over the Ern USA. This high will drift S into cntrl NEB tonight and then drift to OMA by 00Z/Wed. A strong shrtwv trof is fcst to move in from the Pac and head E along the US-Can border. The exception will be Sat night when a shrtwv trof is fcst to move thru. low pres will be moving thru cntrl Canada and its associated cool front will weaken into a trof as it enters Wrn NEB. Another cool front associated with this low will drop into the Nrn Plns Fri but is fcst to stall along the NEB-SD border thru Sat.
A tad more fair- weather cumulus cloud cover is anticipated, along with slightly warmer high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. This wave will over-top the western North America ridge, flattening it somewhat as it moves through.
High pressure will continue to build across the forecast area from the west through midweek.
247 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019 The current upper-air pattern is amplified in nature, featuring a ridge over the Rockies and a downstream trough over the eastern third of the nation. While the mid to upper-level high is forecast to remain anchored near the Four Corners region through the remainder of the week, a series of perturbations embedded within the polar belt of westerlies will gradually dampen the ridge across the northern tier of states. The result of that process is the deepening of a surface lee trough over the High Plains the subsequent advection of a progressively warmer air mass into the region over the course of the work week. -Canadian border this weekend into early next, promoting at least a temporary retrogression of the upper high from the Four Corners into the lower CO Valley.
1031 PM MDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Thunderstorms starting to percolate along the higher elevations this afternoon, being buoyed by midlevel impulse and daytime heating reaching the mid 80s in places. Conditions tomorrow will be similar to today, with daytime heating sparking thunderstorms on the higher elevations, and slowly drifting east during the afternoon. By Wednesday the ridge will begin to break down, with a cold front moving across the area.
Aloft the pattern reflects an upper ridge of high pressure over the Rockies, a low pressure trough edging toward the Pacific Northwest and to the east an upper trough extended from Quebec south towards the gulf coast states. At the surface, high pressure was centered over south central Nebraska and good radiating conditions existed during the predawn hours with clear skies and calm winds.
A cold front passage will moderate temperatures back to near normal Wednesday, but will bring with it breezy winds. This resulted in some showers over the higher Palouse lifting northeast toward the central Panhandle, with a handful of lightning strikes. However the main weather maker will be moving in Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night in the form of a vigorous frontal system and negatively-tilted upper trough.
The relatively dry air mass associated with the high will result rather cool overnight lows tonight and Wednesday night.
The high pressure system has setup over the Four Corners area and models keep it in place for the next few days. Monsoon moisture will remain over the region through the week underneath the subtropical high pressure. Accompanying the moisture and showers will also be cooler daytime temperatures.
327 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 A mid level trough centered over eastern Canada extending into the southeastern US will slowly rotate through the eastern seaboard today and Wednesday.
Area radars show convection slowly diminishing along the cold front as it works SW thru the area. /issued 154 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019/ The upper ridge centered over the Four Corners region today will remain confined to the West as a strong trough digs over the Eastern US. This will keep the region on the east side of the high which is expected to move little over the next 10 days. A rare summer cold front has sagged into the area this morning bringing a change from our recent hot wx.
Cooler and drier air will be the story for the next few days, as a Canadian ridge of high pressure settles over the area. Latest model projections suggest that this ridge will make slow progress to the east over the next several days, as the upper level flow stays out of the N-NW. Ridge will slowly slide into the Ozarks and Mississippi valley by Thu/Fri, which will lead to a gradual warming trend back towards normal for end of the week, for areas west of I-135, as southerly winds return to the region. Northeast winds will be relatively light in response to the approaching high pressure.
Dry and stable weather conditions are expected to continue through Tuesday morning, as an upper level ridge continues dominating the local area. For Wednesday, high temperatures in the upper 90s, combined with dewpoint temperatures in the mid to upper 60s with an approaching upper level low, will enhance the development of strong to severe thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours, mainly across the eastern third of northeast Montana.
451 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Focus for the short term continues to be a slow moving cold front that will move through the state today. Amplifying trough over the eastern U. Pops quickly taper off from the northwest behind the front as dry, cooler air filter in to the state. Highs today will be unseasonably cool today due to the combination of the cloud cover, precipitation, and cold front.
Today Through Wednesday Night Early this morning, frontal boundary was well to the south of Arkansas, with cooler and drier air moving in behind the boundary. High pressure will move into the region on quasi-meridional flow aloft, which will continue to be the dominant weather feature through the remainder of the period.
A weak sfc trof and lake breeze boundaries may provide enough convergence for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to form. Highs will be a little warmer, with readings in the lower to middle 80s inland, and middle to upper 70s lakeside.
with overall surface ridging extending eastward thru much of the Great Lakes region. Upper level trough axis is holding across the NE US. A moisture-starved cold front is draped across Southern Ontario. This wave will continue to drop SE thru the upper level trough in place across the Great Lakes. Ridging aloft will build slowly into the region from the south and west.
338 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Northwest upper level flow has taken hold over the region and will remain in control as a large ridge becomes entrenched across the western CONUS.
A warming trend will continue with widespread triple digit heat expected across the lower elevations through the week. Upper level ridge of high pressure over the four corners area will slowly retrograde westward this week and temperatures will climb accordingly. We are currently on the western side of the ridge which promotes sub tropical moisture flow northward across the forecast area. The center of the ridge of high pressure is in decent agreement with the ensembles as well as the 00z deterministic runs.
500 mb chart showed northwest flow in place across our area, with a ridge over the western US extending up into parts of western Canada. There was a 596 decameter anticyclone over southwest CO, and that should generally remain somewhere in the Four Corners region over the next few days. A mid level trough will move northeast toward the southern parts of Alberta, Saskatchewan and northern MT by late Wednesday.
As the high pressure center moves into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday we may see some widespread fog in the morning timeframe with the lack of wind and strong radiation inversion likely to develop that night. Temperatures will stay in the lower 80s and slowly climb back up into the upper 80s on the backside of the high pressure once we get a southern return flow to set back up. The area looks to remain dry through the next 7 days with the ridge holding out through the weekend.
Upper trough will stall over the region today. I think the main affect for the area will be a slowing of the eradication of the cloud cover and continuing the risk for isolated to scattered showers over the SE ridges. Trough axis finally rotates through the area late tonight. Models are indicating an area of showers and cloud cover, associated with the main wave rotating through the trough, diving southward from Lower MI in northern OH this evening. However, we will likely see some increase in cloud cover overnight, as the wave digs southward toward the trough axis. The area will remain under the influence of the trough on Wednesday.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will linger across the area overnight, but increase in coverage after sunrise as a cold front moves through the region. The cooler drier air was still off to the northwest, but winds have come around to the north behind the line of storms.