Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
612 AM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022 Key Messages: - Raw, still blustery today with highs near record low maximums - Cool into midweek with mostly small precip chances - Potent weekend system likely brings widespread rain Today into Tuesday: Active pattern continues aloft with longwave troughing still parked over central Canada and the Upper Midwest.
VFR conditions to prevail through the day, with some upper/mid level clouds moving in this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. KS Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 58 68 45 72 / 20 60 60 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 57 66 42 69 / 10 70 70 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 83 56 66 41 69 / 20 70 60 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 57 65 39 64 / 10 60 80 0 0.
This activity has been tied to a minor trough and embedded MCV that will reach the coast by daybreak, although measurable rainfall should be spotty and short lived as this wave shears out and elevated ascent diminishes. Most of this morning and early afternoon looks to be on the quiet side as the next round of convection should focus mainly to our north along a slow moving cold front, although mentionable PoPs are being left region wide as PWATs remain 1/3 to 1/2" above normal within weak capping and MLCAPEs around 1500 J/kg. However, ample moisture and minimal CIN through Tuesday should yield good chances for measurable rain over much of the region before activity wanes Tue night as surface ridging delivers lower theta-E air.
An upper trough axis extending southwest from the upper low through eastern KS. Subfreezing lows are forecast again from near 30 west to the upper 20s east. By Tuesday, an upper ridge builds into the region as an upper trough moves across the West West Coast.
Showers/storms will continue into the morning, as upper trough digs down from the Plains and ridging over the southeast conus contracts. Rain should end from northwest to southeast during the later morning and into the afternoon as cooler, drier air works its way in behind the boundary.
Temperatures are mostly in the lower to mid 30s for most areas across the region. the upper trough is forecast to shift eastward into Kansas by late afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler this afternoon with mostly mid to upper 50s expected over the Plains. Areas that see snow this morning will likely be a few degrees cooler, with upper 40s for highs. the upper storm system will continue to move eastward, and high pressure over Utah will move into Western Colorado. Ah yes, the return of mid-level ridging, warmer temperatures, stronger winds, and lower humidity values.
957 AM EDT Mon Apr 25 2022 Quiet and warm weather will continue today with offshore high pressure maintaining an influence on the area. A cold front sweeps through late Tuesday bringing a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. High pressure comes back into the area by midweek with drier, cooler air expected. Latest sfc analysis shows 1021 mb high pressure centered over the Carolina coast. Similar conditions today as yesterday, and if anything a couple degrees warmer as the high slides offshore and an upr-level ridge remains centered along the east coast. Pretty warm and sunny to start the day Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front.
610 AM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022 Key messages: - Freezing temperatures are expected tonight along and north of Highway 36 with a frost expected further south as temperatures fall into the upper 20s to mid 30s.
337 AM MDT Mon Apr 25 2022 Upper level ridge moving over the Northern Rockies today will bring about pleasant conditions, with highs reaching the 60s to near 70, light surface winds, and dry conditions. transient ridging will slide east and over the Northern Rockies through the day today, before moving east over the Northern High Plains tonight as a deep H500 trough/closed low over the Eastern Pacific begins to move over the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia coasts.
CIMSS MIMIC TPW shows a good delineation between the swath of higher moisture across the Lower Keys and west and the drier air right on its heels. The Florida Keys remain on the south/southwestern side of an expansive are of high pressure centered across the southeast coast.
634 AM EDT Mon Apr 25 2022 Quiet and warm weather will continue today with offshore high pressure maintaining an influence on the area. A cold front sweeps through late Tuesday bringing a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. High pressure comes back into the area by midweek with drier, cooler air expected. Latest sfc analysis shows 1021 mb high pressure centered over the Carolina coast. Similar conditions today as yesterday, and if anything a couple degrees warmer as the high slides offshore and an upr-level ridge remains centered along the east coast. Pretty warm and sunny to start the day Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front.
A ridge will begin departing the area today, though a mix of clouds and sun are in the forecast for the region. This is due to a high pressure system moving in the area, with an axis that is almost overhead at this time. By Tuesday, the main upper low will remain somewhat stationary just off the coast of British Columbia.
(Today through Tuesday afternoon) A cold front has pushed through our region tonight. As the cold front continues to advance southward heading into Monday afternoon, precipitation chances begin to push south and east of I-20. With clearing skies over the Permian Basin and high pressure sliding into the region Monday night, temperatures are expected to get rather chilly for late April. Mid-level ridging returns for Tuesday.
415 AM MDT Mon Apr 25 2022 A weak upper level trough will move across the area this morning, with some lingering snow, mainly south of I-70, over the higher terrain and in the srn Foothills. Upper ridging is in place over the CWA on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Only adjustments made have been minor tweaks to temperatures due to the ridge-valley split. Present surface analysis has the area within the warm sector which has and will continue to keep warmer temperatures in the region. However, off the west, a surface cold front is slowly crossing into the Bluegrass State. Once the front exits, the biggest story is going to be cooler temperatures for Tuesday. Nonetheless, with high pressure and clearing skies it will be a quiet end to an active short-term period. A cool and dry air mass will be in place as the period starts, with surface ridging building in from the west while troughing aloft departs to the east.
953 AM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022 Temperatures are already in the lower 70s across the TN Valley with plentiful sunshine and southerly flow gusting 15-20kts. Daytime highs are expected to reach the lower 80s before the northerly flow behind the front arrives.
620 AM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022 (Today and tonight) Strong thunderstorms continue in the vicinity of the cold front, along the I-10 corridor.
By the evening and into the overnight hours, moisture will be on the increase along with a mid/upper trough axis approaching the region.
Persistent low clouds will result in a much cooler/cloudy day across most of the middle and lower Susquehanna Valley.
That will change by late this afternoon though as primary midlevel trough axis finally moves through the region and shunts moisture and front eastward. Tue-Wed still appear dry as Canadian high pressure settles into the western Lakes. Core of the thermal trough passes through SE MI early Wed. Skies will be mostly clear (especially in our SW half) though and lows anticipated to drop into the low 30s. Still carrying a slight chance of rain later Thu with this warm front but much better chances for rain don't arrive until the weekend.
818 AM EDT Mon Apr 25 2022 High pressure remains in control today with another round of mostly clear to partly cloudy skies along with above normal temperatures. A cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the Southeast Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.
The sfc cold front that will continue to progress across Se Mi during the pre dawn hours is forecast to weaken/stall just to the east of the forecast area after 12Z as the mid level flow remains parallel to the sfc front. The low level frontal dyanmics will sustain the advection of cooler and drier air into the boundary layer during the course of the day. The upper wave shown on satellite over Manitoba is still forecast to amplify and develop into a closed low as it dives across the northern lakes on Tuesday. Mid level positive PV advection will accompany the upper low as it advances across the nrn lakes on Tuesday.
403 PM EDT Mon Apr 25 2022 A cold front will move east of the area this evening. Cold front has moved into far western Ohio. This will bring cooler air aloft. Meanwhile high pressure will be gradually building in at the surface.
352 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022 A cold front is pushing through the Mid South this afternoon. You can already feel the cooler and drier conditions outside this afternoon.
319 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022 A cold Spring night is on tap tonight as frost and freezing conditions develop north of Interstate 70. The cold front has departed to the southeast, leaving gusty W-NW winds at 25-35 mph in its wake. That will set the stage for widespread frost and freezing conditions. One challenge for the freezing temperatures will be the timing of the clouds clearing. 850mb temps will be a couple degrees warmer than Monday night, but still near 0C. Winds will become light and variable Tuesday night under the ridge axis, with clear skies.
As surface front and upper level troughing push eastward, scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible through mainly evening hours with any lingering showers ending across Cumberland Plateau Region shortly after daybreak on Tuesday.
There is a chance for showers this afternoon in the far northern parts of the CWA that could be somewhat convective given some CAPE in the low levels given fairly steep lapse rates from the surface to about 800mb before strong capping from 800-700mb.
1242 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022 (Today and tonight) Strong thunderstorms continue in the vicinity of the cold front, along the I-10 corridor.
Temperatures generally in line with forecasted highs with progression of cold front west to east across mid state through afternoon hours today resulting in several locations west of I-65 Corridor likely having already reached expected forecasted high temperatures with temperatures in these locations falling as remaining morning into afternoon hours progress. The cold front that we have been anticipating is already almost to the Tennessee River.
321 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022 /Updated at 0129 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022/ A cold front continues to push southeastward into eastern Mississippi and far northwestern Alabama this afternoon. The upper ridge in the western Atlantic will finally break down, allowing an upper trough to move across the southeast by Tuesday evening. Cooler and drier air will filter southward through Tuesday night.
Temperatures across the island chain have gradually warmed up into the lower to mid 80s with dew points near 70 degrees. A secondary moisture and wind surge is expected this evening through overnight as an approaching trough makes its way into the eastern seaboard and jostles the aforementioned ridge into the central Atlantic.
214 PM MDT Mon Apr 25 2022 An upper level ridge will slide east across the area tonight. A nearly stationary upper level low off the coast of British Columbia will steer a series of upper level troughs across the Pacific NW and northern Rockies over the coming days. Expect breezy and gusty winds Tuesday afternoon in the 25 to 40 mph range and temperatures a good 10 to 12 degrees warmer than today.
1010 AM MST Mon Apr 25 2022 Updated Aviation High pressure will prevail across the region this week resulting in dry conditions and generally clear skies. A high pressure ridge will build across the Southwestern U. through Tuesday, while a quasi-stationary Pacific trough currently centered off the coast of British Columbia slowly expands to the southeast. For our region, the ridge will bring building heights and warming conditions over the next couple days. Highs Tuesday should be the warmest of the week with the NBM guidance showing the bulk of the lower deserts peaking in the upper 90s. This will be in response to an enhanced gradient that sets up across eastern Arizona and western New Mexico from a backdoor cold front moving westward through New Mexico.
Today and Tonight A cold front has passed through the region this morning along with numerous showers and thundershowers. Cold air advection behind the front will bring much cooler weather compared to just 24 hours prior. Lows for the next few nights are expected to be in the 30s, so frost and freezing conditions are a concern. Continued cold air advection allows 850mb temps to bottom out around -5C as a trough axis passes overhead.
130 PM EDT Mon Apr 25 2022 Aviation/Climate -- Much cooler with some light rain today to the Southeast -- Latest sfc analysis and radar imagery as of 3 am indicates that the cold front has just about exited the area this morning. Another front also comes in, which will send 850 mb temps below freezing by 00z tonight. -- Some rain and snow showers possible on Tuesday -- The long wave trough will remain over the region on Tuesday, actually dipping over the area as a strong short wave helps to dig the trough. While there may be some light accumulations of snow in the grassy areas up north over the higher elevations, this should not be a big deal.
250 PM EDT Mon Apr 25 2022 A stationary front will remain near the region through early Tuesday before being swept away by a cold front crossing the area.
Getting a few reports of freezing rain/drizzle in our eastern tier of counties, something that is being overshot by radar and also not captured well by the models. Will include a mention for the next hour or so of freezing drizzle. Slightly warmer weather is expected for Tuesday, with continued quiet conditions and highs in the middle 30s to middle 40s.
107 PM EDT Mon Apr 25 2022 A cold front will bring rain showers and storms this afternoon and evening. GOES-16 IR imagery displays pockets of deep convection via colder cloud tops across wrn and nrn Kentucky, with a general newd movement toward the forecast area in conjunction with an approaching pre-frontal trough. Meanwhile, visible satellite imagery suggests the development of a cu field as convective temperature in the low 80s is met. Tuesday should be noticeably cooler (back to below normal) and dry in the wake of the front.
Temperatures are warming and southerly winds are beginning to increase ahead of an approaching cold front. Most of the showers will be associated with the cold front, which has good agreement on slowly passing through central Idaho and western Montana tonight and Tuesday.
127 PM EDT Mon Apr 25 2022 Quiet and warm weather will continue today with offshore high pressure maintaining an influence on the area. A cold front sweeps through late Tuesday bringing a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. High pressure comes back into the area by midweek with drier, cooler air expected. Latest sfc analysis shows 1021 mb high pressure centered over the Carolina coast. Similar conditions today as yesterday, and if anything a couple degrees warmer as the high slides offshore and an upr-level ridge remains centered along the east coast. Pretty warm and sunny to start the day Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front.
South to southeast surface winds will accompany lee surface pressure falls throughout the day, with a fairly tight pressure gradient developing from the High Plains of TX into western KS.
134 PM PDT Mon Apr 25 2022 A cooling trend is in store for SoCal over the next few days as a troughing pattern takes hold across the region. Subtle ridging aloft will take over by the weekend, bringing slight warming.
The area is still feeling the influence of a weakening area of high pressure this afternoon with temperatures climbing into the 50s and 60s allowing for a rather pleasant day. Expecting skies to become overcast by the evening keeping our overnight lows a bit on the mild side tonight, generally around 40 across the upper Snake to low to mid 40s in the lower Snake and Magic Valley. Obviously a bit cooler, across the higher terrain and Arco Desert but certainly a bit above normal. Highs will again reach into the 50s and 60s, probably a few degrees warmer than today, but winds will be breezier.
1137 AM MDT Mon Apr 25 2022 High pressure continues to build across the Intermountain West with a deepening low pressure that continues pushing off to the northeast, dragging its associated cold frontal boundary across the eastern CONUS. Overall, no major changes to the short term, with a dome of high pressure building across the region, bringing warmer and drier air across the CWA. Should see daytime highs begin to trend towards seasonable averages today, and even in the low 70s by Tuesday afternoon. So far, current model guidance has wind speeds just under criteria for Tuesday under the upper level ridge pattern.
(This evening through Tuesday) Drier air will continue to move in behind the cold front overnight with showers and thunderstorms. After a cool start in the 40s to lower 50s Tuesday morning, most sunny skies will allow temperatures to rise to highs in the lower to mid 70s.
Latest water vapor imagery shows a weak yet broad trough axis extending from low pressure centered over Ontario into the central Plains. Upstream of this was weak ridging over the Rockies and upstream of that was another low off the Pacific coast of British Columbia. Tuesday morning lows should all drop below freezing across much of the area so anyone with sensitive vegetation outdoors will want to take some protective measures overnight. Although we may see the lower RH values northeast of the Red Flag Warning, we may have a tough time getting the stronger winds in that area.
Clouds are increasing this morning in advance of an upper short wave trough approaching the Pacific NW coast. Showers will develop this afternoon over e-central Oregon and continue into tonight as the trough swings onshore then lifts northeastward. Marginal instability coupled with the dynamics from the passing trough will support isolated thunderstorms this afternoon across Baker county and northern Harney county.
/issued 820 AM EDT Mon Apr 25 2022/ An upper level ridge remains aloft the area today with a warm and generally dry stable airmass. coast eases to the east while ridging back across FL to the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front pushes through the waters Wed and is followed by high pressure with veering winds.
1204 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022 (The rest of today ) Cool high pressure settling in across the forecast area in the wake of the slow moving frontal boundary that is now south of the area.
A wave of low pressure will develop along the front and move north into the Gulf of Maine. That will leave the weather unsettled through the remainder of the work week along with cooler temperatures. Onshore flow continues to bring a cooler and more moist maritime airmass into the region from east to west. As a weakening cold front slowly approaches from the west, a few showers will likely reach northwestern areas by daybreak tomorrow. Tomorrow's weather will be dictated by a weakening cold front slowly crossing through the area. Then by late in the day, low pressure is expected to begin to develop and deepen in the Gulf of Maine along the front.
Temperatures are already in the lower 70s across the TN Valley with plentiful sunshine and southerly flow gusting 15-20kts. Daytime highs are expected to reach the lower 80s before the northerly flow behind the front arrives.
/Updated at 0129 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022/ A cold front continues to push southeastward into eastern Mississippi and far northwestern Alabama this afternoon. The upper ridge in the western Atlantic will finally break down, allowing an upper trough to move across the southeast by Tuesday evening. Cooler and drier air will filter southward through Tuesday night.
219 PM EDT Mon Apr 25 2022 Synoptic situation will begin changing tonight as high pressure begins sliding away from the region and clouds begin increasing ahead of a cold front. The cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the Southeast Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.
159 PM EDT Mon Apr 25 2022 A cold front will move across the area today bringing showers and thunderstorms. The cold front discussed in the Near Term will be pushing east of the area tonight as high pressure builds in from the west. Skies clear behind the front and cooler, drier air works in thanks to CAA. Forecast highs will be much cooler than this past weekend- in the middle 50s along and north of I-70 to 60 by the Ohio River. Breezy westerly winds could make conditions feel a bit cooler.
332 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022 Through Tuesday: A convectively induced cold pool and associated thundershower activity continue to progress southeast across the forecast area with the primary synoptic scale cold front lagging behind just a bit. Otherwise the main story will be significantly cooler weather as continental polar air surges southward through MS Valley region.
Northwest flow continues as a low pressure clipper aloft moves south from southern Canada into Minnesota tonight, no precipitation expected. Tuesday temperatures will be warmer than Monday, although the temperature spread in the NBM are large. Current forecast highs for Tuesday range from the low 30s in the north to the low 40s where there is snow in the west. Flow aloft slowly turns west during the day, as the ridge axis moves east out of Montana late Tuesday evening.
A dry sub-cloud layer appears to be limiting potential for anything measurable, but have decided to add some low-end PoPs through 00z this evening when the primary trough axis should exit.
By tonight, a weak cold front will begin approaching the region.
143 PM MDT Mon Apr 25 2022 Upper level ridge moving over the Northern Rockies today will bring about pleasant conditions, with highs reaching the 60s to near 70, light surface winds, and dry conditions.
942 AM PDT Mon Apr 25 2022 Warmer and dry today with weak northeast winds near the coastal slopes of the mountains this morning.
A cold front is pushing into the lower MS Valley region as of late morning, and it is preceded by weak convective system with a large cold pool driving a band of showers with gusty winds, now roughly approaching the Natchez Trace Corridor. Lows will range from the mid 50s in the north to the low 60s in the south.
350 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022 The main concerns in the forecast will be near-critical fire weather conditions today, sub-freezing temperatures overnight, critical fire weather conditions Tuesday, and a few chances for precipitation over second half of the week. Temperatures around the freezing mark will be possible across North Central Kansas and areas south of I-80 in Nebraska.
Mostly dry and warm conditions will continue until a cold front pushes through the area Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Isolated freezing temps will be possible in low lying areas especially across the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle. Upper ridging will move over the region tomorrow and will help warm temps back into the mid 70s. A surface lee trough will veer winds back to the south to southeast with speeds generally around 10-20 mph.
High pressure was found across the area this afternoon as easterly winds brought cooler and drier air from Lake Michigan. High pressure will continue to affect the area, A wind shift will stop the drier air from moving west from the Lake. The main challenge are the lows tonight. Dewpoints in the low 40s are advecting into the area. Have gone slightly cooler than previous forecast.
525 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022 Upper ridging continues across the central Great Plains. Deep southwest has increased over the CWA ahead of a Pac NW trough. Stronger forcing ahead of the approaching trough will bring better chances of storms.
924 PM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022 High pressure brings dry, cool weather through Sunday night.
After that, skies will become mostly clear, and lows will drop into the low to mid 70s.