Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1255 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017 Ridge axis extending across north central Kansas into central Iowa will drift southeast into the area today. North-northeast flow will prevail ahead of the ridge continuing to provide weak cold advection. full sunshine and and strong late April insolation will warm our early morning lows from the low to mid 40s up into the upper 60s and lower 70s this afternoon. The ridge will continue drifting east tonight. It does look like lows will be a bit warmer on Monday morning across the area due to the warmer start to the evening. Carney Closed upper low that will be over the southeast CONUS early on Monday morning will move offshore and up the East Coast by midweek.
149 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 An area of upper level low pressure will move slowly eastward across the southeastern states on Sunday. Dry high pressure will remain in place across the southern Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley.
314 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017 High pressure ridge axis stretching from the Southern Plains and into the Great Lakes this afternoon. Once again, ridge axis in the region will keep the winds light and a significant lack of cloud cover will set up a decent radiational cooling event. sunshine and increasingly southerly winds will keep the temps a few degrees warmer than today.
359 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 A cold front will push across the north tonight then stall along the Downeast coast on Monday.
SKC High pressure over N TX will weaken and move E of the MS river and return flow off the Gulf setting us up for more convection by midweek w/ 27/00z fropa. /issued 1047 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017/ The morning visible satellite imagery depicts an extensive stratocu field that continues to linger across much of Deep E TX, N LA, and Scntrl AR, with additional cu cigs developing farther N across SW AR and portions of E TX as they sink S in wake of the nearly stacked low pressure system over Middle TN. 15Z temps were also running 1-2 degrees warmer than anticipated over much of the area, and given this, have bumped up max temps slightly to compensate as the cold advection has ended.
320 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017 Mid level moisture is increasing over the northern plains this afternoon with a broad upper trough coming onshore. Northeast KS remains under an upper ridge for the time being with light winds and clear skies in place. Winds remain steady around 10 mph, keeping temperatures warmer than Monday morning with readings in the 40s.
631 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 High pressure continues to keep the North Country dry through Monday night.
Cold front currently situated from ern KS through cntl OK/n-cntl TX continues to show good sewd progress. /issued 310 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017/ Wx map shows continued east southeast flow across the region, with an increasing pressure gradient across TX ahead of the next sfc and upper level trough to affect our region Sunday. A larger longwave mid/upper level trough moving eastward over the Central U.
/Issued 318 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017/ High pressure over the Middle Atlantic will continue to shift offshore the eastern US through Sunday. Precipitation chances will begin to increase, especially from the west, Sunday night as a cold front approaches from the Lower Mississippi River Valley.
535 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Some lingering clouds and light snow continued into the early afternoon behind the latest cold front and trough passage along the northern and central divide mountains, with not much impact. Skies were mostly clear aside from that with much cooler temperatures this afternoon than 24 hours ago, on the order of 20 degrees cooler. Expect these clouds and light snow showers to dissipate late this afternoon as high pressure builds to the west and the trough shifts further eastward.
A strong inflow of Southerly low level moisture out ahead of an approaching upper level storm system and cold front will allow conditions to deteriorate to MVFR. Some of this could linger across eastern portions of area into the aftn hours, depending on the trough beginning to close off as it moves east across northern AR.
We're starting to see the early signs of a weather change this evening, as we turn our eyes toward the lower Mississippi Valley. Higher surface dew points, in the lower 60s were just west of the Tennessee River. Eastern areas, where light winds will be a bit later picking up, may see a more variable pattern of low temperatures, with sheltered valleys seeing lows in the middle and upper 40s, ranging to the lower and middle 50s where a 2 to 3 kt wind kicks in. Winds are increasing this evening as the surface pressure gradient strengthens ahead of tomorrow night's cold front.
The 19z MSAS surface analysis a cold front which extended from near Lake Winnipeg south through extreme western MN, far eastern NE and points south. Models are still in good agreement with sending the cold front into WI later tonight (but remaining west of the forecast area). Min temperatures to remain mild for one more night with readings in the lower to middle 50s central WI, upper 50s to lower 60s eastern WI. The cold front is expected to slowly push east across central and eastern WI on Sunday, partially impeded by an upper ridge situated over the East Coast. Sunday Night Through Saturday The stretch of dry and mild weather provided by an upper level ridge will be replaced by an active, cooler weather pattern as a long wave trough establishes itself across the Great Lakes region during the upcoming week.
1148 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Early afternoon satellite imagery, surface observations and radar returns all point at a large trough, who's axis is currently swinging through the Rocky Mountains into the Northern Plains, is helping push a strong cold front quickly east this afternoon. A little scattering in the skies ahead of the front has allowed surface temperatures to climb into the low to mid 70s just ahead of the front this afternoon, resulting in surface CAPE values in between 1500-2000 J/KG. However, there will be some cooler temperatures later this week as a prevailing northwest flow dominates our section of the Plains States, allowing temperatures to roller coaster up and down a couple times this week.
946 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017 We're starting to see the early signs of a weather change this evening, as we turn our eyes toward the lower Mississippi Valley. Higher surface dew points, in the lower 60s were just west of the Tennessee River. Eastern areas, where light winds will be a bit later picking up, may see a more variable pattern of low temperatures, with sheltered valleys seeing lows in the middle and upper 40s, ranging to the lower and middle 50s where a 2 to 3 kt wind kicks in. Winds are increasing ahead of an approaching cold front.
Attention turns to north Texas where a line of showers and thunderstorms associated with a southward moving cold front approaches northern parts of se Tx 10-12z and off the coast by 18z. /ISSUED 927 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017/ Cold front is through the Panhandle this evening and is timed to reach our far northwestern forecast area around sunrise tomorrow. Lines of showers with embedded thunderstorms will likely begin feeding into the downstream/pre-frontal trough as the main boundary reaches the I-35 corridor shortly after midnight.
Elsewhere, a few very light rain showers linger over portions of northwest/north central North Dakota as the trough lifts through, so have added a mention of isolated showers for a couple of hours.
Cold front extended from Topeka to Weatherford this evening. Wind threat will diminish as cold front eventually undercuts the convective line.
Ceilings will lift quickly into VFR category when the cold front passes shortly after thunderstorms. /issued 210 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017/ The cold front continues to progress southward this afternoon across northwestern OK, with a few elevated showers quickly lifting northeast ahead of it. Tomorrow will be quiet with much cooler and drier air moving into the Southern Plains.
/Issued 632 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017/ Cold front has pushed well south of all terminals. Mid-level clouds currently overhead will dissipate tonight as downward motions prevail following passage of sharp mid-level trof. Clear sky expected on Sunday with southwest surface winds resuming for the afternoon as next surface trof develops over eastern New Mexico. The airmass associated with this high has dew points in the teens and 20s. The Panhandles will be in a northwest flow aloft as a low pressure develops over the eastern U. and high pressure builds across the western U. This northwest flow will bring an occasional cold front through the Panhandles this week.
Thunderstorms should develop in the 2:30-4:00 PM timeframe across parts of northeast KS, along a cold front and pre-frontal confluence axis -- within a corridor centered from Seneca toward Council Grove. The front should clear the forecast area by 9 PM with a few lingering showers in its wake tonight, and winds becoming northwesterly in its wake with cooler temperatures anticipated into Sunday. The next storm system by weeks end looks to bring much cooler temperatures and the possibility of wintry precipitation. The upper level trough responsible for today's thunderstorm activity will continue its trek eastward, away from the CWA.
As for this afternoon, the main severe weather threat should be to the east of our area, as the cold front should be just east of the Barber/Pratt county area by the time of convective initiation. Models are running much warmer than the group of various MOS output, especially the EKDMOS and ECMWF mos products which would reach even hard freeze type lows in the far western counties.
741 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Update/Aviation Rain will move into Lower Michigan on Sunday afternoon as a cold front slowly advances east.
A warm front is moving northeast through the area this evening. Low temps will range from near 30 in the mountains to near 40 in the lower valleys. Sunday will be warmer than today with highs 45 to 55 in the mountains and 55 to 65 in the lower valleys, warmest in southern Malheur County.
605 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017 A couple of lingering showers and thunderstorms very late afternoon, but progression of trough will end things quickly this evening and bring clearing into the area. Influx of much drier air and weakening gradient overnight will allow temps to fall into the 30s overnight, with a few readings around 40 for the Buffalo Ridge where winds may stay up a bit better.
A mild westerly flow aloft will result in warmer temperatures Sunday.
Temperatures are in the lower 70s, while winds are out of the southeast. /issued 238 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017/ Breezy and mild conditions this afternoon as pressures fall ahead of the approaching front/upper trough in the Central Plains.
/issued 310 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017/ Wx map shows continued east southeast flow across the region, with an increasing pressure gradient across TX ahead of the next sfc and upper level trough to affect our region Sunday. A larger longwave mid/upper level trough moving eastward over the Central U.
The cold front extended from near KC down into northeast OK, just to the north and west of Tulsa, and then down into south central OK at 9 PM. The line of storms which developed late into the afternoon and evening from southwest into north central OK will now begin to move more quickly to the southeast for the remainder of the night in tandem with the cold front. Cold front extended from Topeka to Weatherford this evening. Wind threat will diminish as cold front eventually undercuts the convective line.
638 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Water vapor satellite this afternoon shows the mean long wave trough has progressed through the Rockies. The trough and embedded short wave troughs will continue to work east through the night and then start to shear out Sunday as a closed upper level low looks to take shape across the lower Mississippi River Valley. This trough and embedded short wave troughs will provide the necessary lift for showers and storms along the cold front. Forecast soundings from the RAP show between 500 and 750 J/Kg of CAPE along the front in a tall, skinny profile with deep layer shear of 30 to 40 knots, most of which resides in the lowest 3 km. Much cooler weather still expected for this coming week.
832 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Strong high pressure surface and aloft will hold over west central and southwest Florida through Sunday.
/issued 238 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017/ Breezy and mild conditions this afternoon as pressures fall ahead of the approaching front/upper trough in the Central Plains.
After midnight, a cold front will bring a large area of showers and thunderstorms into Arkansas.
730 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Mild conditions will continue the rest of this weekend before cooler weather arrives to start the work week.
The trough will move inland tonight spreading showers into se Ga.
622 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Cold front at 19z extended from Onawa, IA southward into the Omaha metro area, and southward toward Beatrice, NE.
758 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 High pressure is maintaining control tonight; however, there are some high clouds streaming in on southwest flow aloft. A ridge of high pressure will bring dry and warmer than normal weather to eastern Kentucky through early Sunday evening. Tonights low will also be warmer than normal, with minimum readings ranging from the upper 40s to the mid 50s across the area. Cloud cover will finally begin to increase Sunday evening, as a large trough of low pressure aloft, and its attendant surface cold front, begin moving across the region. At the surface, an area of low pressure is expected to be approaching from TN Valley region.
632 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Cold front has pushed well south of all terminals. Mid-level clouds currently overhead will dissipate tonight as downward motions prevail following passage of sharp mid-level trof. Clear sky expected on Sunday with southwest surface winds resuming for the afternoon as next surface trof develops over eastern New Mexico. The airmass associated with this high has dew points in the teens and 20s. The Panhandles will be in a northwest flow aloft as a low pressure develops over the eastern U. and high pressure builds across the western U. This northwest flow will bring an occasional cold front through the Panhandles this week.
Squall line has congealed along a cold front and will be moving into our nrn and wrn portions of the region within the next hour or so. A strong inflow of Southerly low level moisture out ahead of an approaching upper level storm system and cold front will allow conditions to deteriorate to MVFR. Some of this could linger across eastern portions of area into the aftn hours, depending on the trough beginning to close off as it moves east across northern AR.
840 PM MST Sat Oct 21 2017 Near-normal temperatures will make a brief return this weekend, before a strong area of high pressure builds over the Western U. Strong high pressure aloft was building into the desert southwest behind an exiting upper level open wave trof; as seen in the 00z 500mb plot data 60-90m height rises were present across Arizona as well as far southern Nevada and California.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 80 65 69 / 0 10 60 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 77 60 70 / 0 0 20 90 Oak Ridge, TN 50 79 61 68 / 0 0 20 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 77 56 67 / 0 0 10 90.
1040 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017 A couple of lingering showers and thunderstorms very late afternoon, but progression of trough will end things quickly this evening and bring clearing into the area. Influx of much drier air and weakening gradient overnight will allow temps to fall into the 30s overnight, with a few readings around 40 for the Buffalo Ridge where winds may stay up a bit better.
Attention turns to north Texas where a line of showers and thunderstorms associated with a southward moving cold front approaches northern parts of se Tx around 10z and off the coast by 18z. Cold front has moved through Amarillo and as it pushes southward expect storms to become more numerous across NTX tonight.
A line of convection associated with an approaching cold front stretched from western Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri. As of 2 PM, a cold front extended from eastern Nebraska through central Kansas and into the Oklahoma Panhandle. The cold front will be in the process of moving through the Ozarks during the first half of day Sunday.
1035 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 An upper level ridge centered over the western Caribbean reaches well to the north into the eastern United States. However, aided by the low level vorticity analyses courtesy of CIMSS, a weak undulation in the easterlies is across the Florida Keys. The forecast calls for above normal rain chances for all island communities, but especially the Lower and Middle Keys.
609 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Early afternoon satellite imagery, surface observations and radar returns all point at a large trough, who's axis is currently swinging through the Rocky Mountains into the Northern Plains, is helping push a strong cold front quickly east this afternoon. A little scattering in the skies ahead of the front has allowed surface temperatures to climb into the low to mid 70s just ahead of the front this afternoon, resulting in surface CAPE values in between 1500-2000 J/KG. However, there will be some cooler temperatures later this week as a prevailing northwest flow dominates our section of the Plains States, allowing temperatures to roller coaster up and down a couple times this week. Strong thunderstorms will affect the terminal sites through the early evening ahead of and along a cold front.
For the rest of tonight, drier air mass will gradually erode as moisture is forecast to increase from south to north in response to the lower-level winds turning more southeasterly. Low temperatures will be in the low 70s inland and mid 70s with a few upper 70s possible along the coast.
1123 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Cold front at 19z extended from Onawa, IA southward into the Omaha metro area, and southward toward Beatrice, NE.
A weakening cold front will bring the next round of rain Sat night into Sun. The trend is then toward drier and warmer weather as an upper level ridge strengthens over western North America.
748 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 Aviation A storm system tracking northward across Lake Michigan today will push a cold front through the area this morning. Expect a period of showers and even an isolated thunderstorm with the passage of that cold front. This is a strong cold front so once it is through we will see temperatures falling during the afternoon with gusty winds. This sweeps a strong cold front through the area this morning. The question of the day through is will there be a line of convection with the cold front as is sweeps east across our area mid to late morning? At this point it seems questionable and it would be more likely for that line to form over SE Lower Michigan by early this afternoon.
In the low levels of the atmosphere, an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across Central Florida this afternoon. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across South Florida today. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a ridge of high pressure will be located just east of the Florida peninsula this afternoon.
A nice day looks on tap with highs ranging from the low 70s in the north to near 80 in the south. /15/ Prior discussion below: surface analysis had a 993mb low over northern Illinois with the trailing cold front across the central portions of our CWA. The cold front will shift east of our CWA by sunrise and end the low chances of rain over east Mississippi. Despite decent insolation today, temperatures will top out cooler than normal at most locations. The cold front moving through our CWA this morning will stall near the Gulf coast this afternoon then return north as a warm front after midnight tonight. Model consensus has the warm front near the interstate 20 corridor by sunrise but rain chances look to hold off until during the day.
/issued 356 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017/ The cold front that moved through the area late last night continues its march eastward this morning and is currently bisecting Alabama from north to south. Expect these clouds to continue to trail the cold front out of our area over the next few hours leaving sunny skies and a cool northwesterly breeze.
Today will be windy and mild ahead of an approaching cold front. Gusty winds will continue Friday as the cold front moves south through the state.
A cold front/northwesterly wind shift will enter northwest Oklahoma toward the end of the TAF period.
705 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017 A brief period of upper level short wave ridging will keep most of today dry across the region. However, another short wave trough will move east into the central Plains from later this afternoon into tonight. We went on the lower side of temperature guidance today with a quicker increase in clouds expected. Most areas should warm into the lower to middle 60s. Lows should be in the lower to middle 50s.
The disturbance will move east this evening, with high pressure following in its wake.
A weak cold front will gradually shift winds to northwest and northerly overnight but with VFR dominating. /issued 425 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017/ A potent upper level low pressure trough system will gradually traverse the Rockies today and tonight, with a belt of stiff mid and upper level winds crossing our area. Solutions also showing a weak cold front edging southward late into our northern fringes late in the afternoon, then southward during the evening passing much of the area by about 4 am Friday. The lower atmosphere certainly will be dry in advance of the front, and synoptic lift will only be able to saturate a narrow zone in the mid levels with precipitation efficiency very dubious.
Large upper trough will hang back over the area and support showers, mainly over the higher terrain. Continued cold today and tonight but about 5 degrees warmer Friday. An upper level ridge will build into the region in the previous trough's wake.
Light and variable winds to begin the period until the high shifts east, allowing winds to trend more S/SE as speeds increase to between 5-10 kts with some gusts possible at TYR this afternoon.
borsum previous discussion Broad upper trof over central CONUS expected to remain in place through the end of the week. Weak high pressure reaching into western North Dakota from central Canada will keep the eastern zones mostly dry.
Weak high pressure will persist over the waters into early Friday with slowly diminishing moderate seas. This will be due to gusty north winds as high pressure strengthens offshore while a thermal trough develops along the coast.
625 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017 Area of cool high pressure continues to build southeast across the forecast area allowing winds to become light and variable in our western areas. A clearing line continues to slowly move east and morning temperatures continue to drop to below freezing in clear areas. Although temps under the blanket of clouds are above freezing, we are going to continue frost/freeze headlines with any additional clearing allowing temperatures to drop by sunrise. Forcing for ascent should subside quickly by Friday afternoon while a cooler/drier airmass drops out of the Dakotas.
A weak high pressure pattern is responsible for the current stagnant weather. Weak high pressure pattern over the area.
658 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017 Upper level low moving NNE and will stall out as anticipated near Roseau and then move east later tonight.