Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Although the flow will be fairly strong, much drier air filtering southward into the area behind an advancing cold front pushing into Oklahoma will hinder precip chances through much of the period. Colder temperatures are likely tonight as cooler air filters southward into western Kansas, lowering H85 temperatures to around 0C. However, the cooler air mass will be slow to erode so highs may struggle to reach the 40s(F) Thursday afternoon.
Cigs may drop down to the high end MVFR category by 12z tomorrow morning. Precip type is also uncertain as anything from rain to a wintry mix including freezing rain will be possible. temps have warmed into the lower 70s thanks to downslope adiabatic warming. Could see some brief light freezing rain early around sunrise but will take a while to saturate top down across central and eastern sections of the South Plains.
An approaching cold front sagging into northwest Texas this evening will clear all terminals by 16Z Thursday, with southwest winds 5 to 7 knots ahead of the front becoming northerly 8 to 10 knots behind it. /ISSUED 341 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2016/ A weak cold front will pass through SE Texas overnight tonight, bringing slightly cooler temperatures for the next couple of days before the warming trend returns. In the wake of the front, high temperatures will start out in the low to mid 60s for tomorrow before gradually warming to reach the mid to upper 70s by Christmas Day.
Upper level analysis places ridge over the northern Rockies with trough over the upper midwest. Otherwise, a quiet night is expected as upper level ridging builds into the area. quiet weather continues with pleasant temperatures as ridging remains over the area.
Fog across the lower Treasure Valley and additional low lying areas could see fog persist through 18z Thursday before becoming VFR.
Cigs are expected to drop to MVFR late tonight through Thursday mainly along and south of the I-20 corridor in advance of a cold front. Winds will shift to the north in the wake of the cold front but not be too strong or gusty. This low level warm air (and also moisture) advection will continue to increase this evening in advance of combined weak cold front and subtle upper air disturbance headed at the region from the west/northwest. The mentioned cold front will sag south through the northern half of zones late tonight into early tomorrow morning and start reintroducing some slightly cooler and drier air up in the that neck of the woods.
However, this warm spell will be brief as a cold front will be advancing through the region later this evening through the overnight hours. Don't expect any rain with this front as moisture remains quite limited, but we will hang on to some cloud cover with mostly cirrus filling behind the lower stratocu which has mostly departed the region this afternoon.
655 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2016 High pressure will build over the area tonight.
955 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2016 High pressure will build over the area tonight.
so no freezing fog threat tonight for all areas. Models agree on an approaching cold front helping to maintain some cloudiness tonight and early on Thursday along and ahead of the front. clearing skies and a cooler airmass will bring freezing temps back to far north GA Thursday night.
Models continuing trending to a warmer wetter scenario this forecast cycle. upper high sets up across FL with axis running up eastern seaboard. Flow remains progressive as deep upper trough across the nations west 12Z Sun digs a closed low. and that upper low moves rapidly across the high plains and into Canada by Mon evening. Upper high does hold across FL into Mon but finally breaks down Mon night into Tue. Brief drying late Tue already being replaced by deeper moisture Wed as next approaching cold front drops into the MS river valley late.
In other words, a quiet night expected with a weak cold frontal passage expected first thing in the morning.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 39 56 34 54 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 35 53 26 53 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 36 51 27 51 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 30 51 24 50 / 0 0 0 0.
While this will not be present tomorrow with modest southwest breezes emanating from the passing high pressure center, there has been a consistent signal for daytime temperatures outperforming guidance and the snow cover is gone across nearly our entire forecast area.
Rain free conditions will continue overnight and on Thursday as high pressure to the north influences the weather. High pressure builds into the area and will produce continued northeast winds around 10-15 knots.
A cold front remains poised just north of the forecast area this evening and will push across through the overnight hours. Cooler and drier airmass to filter in behind the front. /issued 327 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2016/ A cold front currently stretches form Eastern Iowa to Eastern Kansas. However, slightly cooler temperatures will occur behind the front. Expect highs ranging from the mid 40s to the lower 50s. High pressure will briefly build back into the area by Thursday afternoon into Thursday Night.
Cold front, currently located south of a ICT/MCI line will move into northeast Oklahoma shortly with front quickly sweeping south to the Red River by late evening. Upper low currently off the southwest CA coast will begin to lift northeast across the desert southwest on Thursday.
A dry cold front is also slowly moving southeast into the state, and will continue overnight. A bit cooler and dry airmass will then filter into AR overnight and on Thursday with the high pressure system. Winds will be light and variable to south at 3 to 8 mph this evening, while overnight a cold front will move through the state and switch winds to the west to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.
550 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2016 A dry cold front will push south out of south-central Missouri early this evening. If the high clouds stick around, these temperatures may be 2-4 degrees too cool. Highs on Thursday will then be about 10 degrees cooler than what we saw today.
/issued 327 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2016/ A cold front currently stretches form Eastern Iowa to Eastern Kansas. However, slightly cooler temperatures will occur behind the front. Expect highs ranging from the mid 40s to the lower 50s. High pressure will briefly build back into the area by Thursday afternoon into Thursday Night.
TFJ Weak ridging will continue to build in tonight into Thursday, making for mostly clear skies, light winds, and above normal temperatures.
435 PM MST Wed Dec 21 2016 An upper level low pressure area off the coast of California and Mexico will begin to move northeast tonight reaching the San Diego area tomorrow morning then into northwest Arizona by the end of the day. Late in the day tomorrow the sfc pressure gradient increases as high pressure moves east/southeast and low pressure develops along the front range. Will have to watch for possibility of some freezing drizzle working its way in toward 00z as mid level moisture availability decreases. Low temperatures tonight in the low to upper teens. High temperatures should range from the mid 30s across the far west through southern parts of the area to the low/possibly mid 40s across the far northeast and eastern parts of the area.
640 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2016 High pressure will be centered near the forecast area tonight. A weak and dry cold front will move through the area late Thursday.
A cold front is moving south across North Texas and will be here early in the morning. /issued 525 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2016/ Current VFR conditions are forecast to give way to predominately MVFR conditions during the overnight period with ceilings lower in advance of a cold front approaching from the north. The cold front will pass through the region from 11Z through 15Z resulting in a shift to northerly winds for the day tomorrow.
In addition, after near to slightly above average temperatures this afternoon, southerly flow overnight will keep temperatures generally above freezing with lows expected to be in the upper 30s to low 40s. Fairly quiet weather is expected on Thursday even with a weak cold front approaching from the northwest. This cold front should arrive between 6AM-9AM in the morning with a surface northwest wind and pressure rise the main indicators of its arrival. Temperatures should be about 3-5 degrees cooler for daytime highs after this front's arrival with a northwest (cooler) to southeast (warmer) gradient as light southerly flow overnight transitions to light northwest winds.
557 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2016 Slightly breezy southerly winds early this evening /4-7 kts/ will shift to the north overnight with the passage of a cold front. A few computer models hint at fog developing near sunrise tomorrow close to klfk, but think this is overdone due to the timing of the cold front, and thus the front ushering in a drier airmass. However, this warm spell will be brief as a cold front will be advancing through the region later this evening through the overnight hours. Don't expect any rain with this front as moisture remains quite limited, but we will hang on to some cloud cover with mostly cirrus filling behind the lower stratocu which has mostly departed the region this afternoon.
609 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2016 Low pressure will swing into the region later tonight into Thursday with a period of light snow and minor accumulations.
Warmed temps for tonight given the current warm advection ahead of the cold front, and for the warming influence of the clouds. Cold air advection will kick in quickly with northwest flow behind the low off to the northeast. Then, drier air will move in for Thursday as high pressure moves south of the region.
Evening satellite imagery and objective analysis show an upper low approaching the northern Baja coast, while downstream a plume of subtropical moisture is quickly advecting northward across the Desert Southwest. This upper low is forecast to eject inland and gradually evolve into an open wave as it crosses Arizona Thursday. This will likely maintain a wedge of cold air at the surface across most central and southern valleys through the day Thursday, and model bufr soundings suggest a near isothermal layer maintains itself through the lowest 100mb or so for much of the event. As such may see precip type across the southern and central valleys (excluding the St George and Lake Powell areas) remain as snow, or potentially even see a window of freezing rain should temps above the cold dome warm above freezing.
Fast upper flow across the northern states has brought the latest modified cold front through all but southeast portions of the area today. Water vapor imagery showing the persistent upper low off Baja beginning to move east. Appears cloud cover will be mainly limited to some cirrus tonight with increasing and thickening high cloud Thursday with very dry mid level airmass working in with the Pacific anticyclone following the front.
A cold front will push across the northern part of the Hill Country around midnight tonight and then over the I-35 and KDRT sites by 2 AM CST Thursday. Expecting another cold front passage tonight, with the initial wind shift beginning in the northern zones shortly after midnight and pushing through San Antonio by 8 or 9Z. The most significant impacts of the front will include cooler temperatures including highs in the 50s and 60s and winds of 15-25 mph gusting to possibly 30 mph in the afternoon.
Ahead of the cdfnt will be plenty of clouds which should keep temps above freezing (upper 30s to lower 40s). Fairly quiet weather is expected on Thursday even with a weak cold front approaching from the northwest. This cold front should arrive between 6AM-9AM in the morning with a surface northwest wind and pressure rise the main indicators of its arrival. Temperatures should be about 3-5 degrees cooler for daytime highs after this front's arrival with a northwest (cooler) to southeast (warmer) gradient as light southerly flow overnight transitions to light northwest winds.
258 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2017 Sprawling ridge of high pressure currently extending from Ontario to Texas will shift slowly eastward tonight. Overnight lows will drop into the lower to middle 30s, with a few upper 20s possible northwest of the Illinois River. High pressure will move overhead on Friday, resulting in a mostly sunny and cool day with high temperatures in the lower to middle 50s.
The ridge will generally drift eastward tonight and Friday and expect onshore winds to begin returning Gulf moisture by midday Friday. Temperatures on Friday will be a few degrees warmer than what occurred today.
/issued 325 AM CDT Thu Apr 6 2017/ An upper trough is just to the east of the region with upper ridging beginning to develop over West Texas and southeast New Mexico with westerly flow aloft. Upper ridging continues over the region on Friday and temperatures are projected to warm up from today, especially across the western CWA.
A clear, cooler than average Spring evening in the ArkLaMiss will transition to a clear, cool night. High pressure will continue to filter into the area through tomorrow, before becoming centered over Mississippi tomorrow evening resulting in clear skies. Highs tomorrow will be slightly warmer than today, but still below average. /JPM/ This period will kick off to a chilly start on Friday night as high pressure starts to move into our area.
Advection of slightly drier air from the north could drop dewpoints near and north of the TN/AL line into the lower to mid 30s. However, with very light winds overnight lows should drop into the lower to mid 30s in many areas and produce fairly widespread frosty conditions.
Latest 12z models show the upper ridge axis translating east tonight and Friday bringing southwest flow aloft over the western CONUS extending into Montana out ahead of a surface cold front.
303 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2017 Light winds associated with low- level high pressure settling southeast across the region overnight in concert with clear skies and low dewpoints will support overnight temperatures falling into the 33-38 degree range overnight, coolest over east/southeast Kansas. Otherwise, warmer and quiet weather is expected through Sat, as upper ridging approaches the region from the west. Increasing cross- Rockies flow will strengthen High Plains lee troughing, supporting stout/gusty south winds Fri-Sat.
High pressure will settle over the the region tonight and with light winds/clear skies, temperatures will fall into the lower to mid 30s. A frost advisory was issued earlier for much of the area and will go ahead and include west-central Arkansas, where some of the higher terrain areas could see some light frost.
Tilly Dry weather is expected for most of the weekend due to ridging aloft.
A deep upper level trough will dig into the eastern U. today while a high amplitude ridge transitions across the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will build into the region. With lows expected to drop into the lower and middle 30s patchy if not areas of frost will likely develop late tonight. Some of the colder valleys may reach the freezing mark.
214 PM MDT Thu Apr 6 2017 The upper level ridge axis over Colorado today will flatten and shift to the east on Friday.
and Friday A 993 mb low pressure system was moving through northern Ohio early this morning, and causing the pressure gradient to tighten over WI. High pressure will push into western WI tonight, and move across the forecast area on Friday. Even so, it seemed like a good bet that low temperatures would be cooler in the typical cold spots than the previous forecast, with readings around 20 degrees. Went with a blend of the warmer guidance sets.
347 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017 Low pressure tracking through the Great Lakes will result in showers and windy conditions tonight.
Dry conditions will persist across western Kansas to finish out the week as a weak upper level ridge edges slowly eastward across the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains during the period. Temperatures will be slightly warmer tonight as moisture advection within a developing southeasterly upslope flow helps sustain, or raise, surface dewpoints into the lower to mid 30s(F). A strong southerly flow will develop Friday enhancing warm air advection into western Kansas as a lee side trough strengthens across eastern Colorado, pushing H85 temperatures up just above 10C across central Kansas to near 20C in extreme western Kansas.
Dry conditions will persist across western Kansas to finish out the week as a weak upper level ridge edges slowly eastward across the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains during the period. Temperatures will be slightly warmer tonight as moisture advection within a developing southeasterly upslope flow helps sustain, or raise, surface dewpoints into the lower to mid 30s(F). A strong southerly flow will develop Friday enhancing warm air advection into western Kansas as a lee side trough strengthens across eastern Colorado, pushing H85 temperatures up just above 10C across central Kansas to near 20C in extreme western Kansas. The quiet pattern will persist through much of the weekend as weak upper level ridging shifts further east across the Central Plains.
Low pressure will continue to move Northeast Tonight as high pressure builds from the West.
333 PM MDT Thu Apr 6 2017 Hand analysis at H5 showing strong ridging over the Rockies separating a storm in the mid-west and very vigorous storm system digging along the left coast of NOAM. Lows will also be on the rise with only a very small probability of freezing temperatures returning to the orchard areas.
On the backside of the high, surface winds will become more southerly and increase over the western cwa Friday morning.
332 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2017 Current surface analysis places high pressure from near the Red River Valley into the Central Plains, while a trough stretches from generally the Great Basin into the Canadian Rockies. Upper level analysis places well amplified ridge stretching through the Northern Plains towards the Four Corners region. quiet weather remains with a southerly breeze as warmer airmass continues to shift into the area. very mild temperatures expected as ridge remains over the region. Ridge scoots off to the east though temperatures will remain quite mild through the day.
225 PM PDT Thu Apr 6 2017 The marine layer will slowly deepen tonight through Friday in advance of a low pressure trough moving into California.
Concur with the GFS deterministic with respect to the upper pattern with the upper low currently over the ERN CONUS continuing to move EWD while the next upper system enters the West Coast near the end of the period.
Deep upper troughing has settled over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today with cyclonic NW flow. A tight pressure gradient is resulting in gusty NW winds in the wake of the cold front. Temperatures will continue to fall early this morning as a reinforcing cold front moves through. In addition to the clouds, rain, and cooler temperatures, it is expected to become windy today with a strong pressure gradient. Friday looks to be dry as the upper level trough shifts eastward and high pressure begins to build in from the west. Temperatures will remain on the cooler side with highs in the lower to mid 50s.
The center of the high appears to track through eastern KS. Tomorrow the return flow will increase as the high retreats eastward. Most locations will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer with highs in the mid 60s.
By contrast, with southerly low level flow in place, afternoon temps Sat will be noticeably warmer (around 70) with lows Sat night in the 50s under mostly clear skies. The second half of the weekend remains warm and dry with high pressure moving east to the Atlantic Coast.
1124 AM MDT Thu Apr 6 2017 A quiet period of weather over the next several days with upper-lvl ridging expected to be the dominant feature influencing the central Rockies through Fri afternoon.
Broken cloud cover associated with the upper low in the Great Lakes region has blanketed much of north Georgia through the day, but these clouds will gradually scatter and diminish tonight as the low pulls away. Temperatures overnight are forecast to remain above freezing with perhaps a few spotty exceptions in the highest elevations in northeast Georgia. Friday will bring still-gusty winds, though most of the higher gusts will only be in the 25 mph range as opposed to the 35-40 mph gusts today.
Per latest satellite imagery, a deep trough exists over the eastern CONUS, with the parent low spinning over the Great Lakes Region this afternoon, with another trough developing off of the West Coast. A high amplitude ridge has developed between these systems over the Intermountain West, and will move eastward over the region the next couple of days.
A deep upper trough was centered over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this afternoon. A strong low pressure system continues to move off to the northeast, but a tight pressure gradient in its wake is resulting in strong winds. Highs Friday will range from the low 50s in the Bluegrass to the mid/upper 50s elsewhere.
Cirrus shield thickens through the morning hours as moisture rides over the top of the transitory ridge this will be headed east this afternoon and evening. As the ridge axis shifts eastward, flow aloft will swing to the southwest with pressure gradients slowly tightening up as we head into the closing day of the workweek.
A large occluded low pressure system will move through the Ohio Valley and Northeast today, with its associated cold front moving through the entire state of Florida today. It'll be about 10 to 15 degrees cooler across the board today as we mix into cooler temperatures aloft.
306 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2017 Quiet afternoon across the lower Missouri Valley as high pressure continues to approach the area from the west. The presence of this feature should lead to weaker winds along with plenty of sunshine to allow temps to climb into the lower to middle 60s for daytime highs. Pattern shift gets underway heading into the weekend as upper ridging passes overhead as longwave troughing develops over the western U.
315 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2017 High pressure at the sfc and nw flow aloft will continue to influence our weather through Friday.
Warmer and Spring Like This Breezy and cool conditions have been the story this afternoon across much of the Missouri Ozarks. The center of high pressure will move in over the area tonight. Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 30s with a few colder spots maybe just below freezing. We will be on the back side of high pressure tomorrow afternoon with a return of light southerly winds and milder temperatures. Upper level ridging and height rises will occur this weekend. Gusty winds and warmer temperatures can be expected this weekend.
The upper trough and closed low over the Midwest will move eastward today, and allow an upper ridge to build toward the high plains. Warmer 850mb temperatures of 8-11C will allow highs to reach 62-64 degrees across the wet and southwest, while cooler highs of 56-59 reside across the northeast. A strong Pacific storm will move through the West Coast as an upper ridge axis builds into the Central Plains. There will also be an increase in high clouds cresting the upper ridge axis.
High pressure will gradually approach and dominate Friday. 925 temps modify to 3c to 7c so most areas well into the 50s if not a 60 q or two, esp in our western sections closer to the expected warmer 925 temps.
1117 AM MDT Thu Apr 6 2017 Large upper ridge is building over the western CONUS. A low-level jet will develop tonight ahead of a trough. Upper ridge axis will cross the northern plains Friday, and southwesterly flow will increase as low-level trough moves through the region. An upper trough will approach the region this weekend.
Southwest flow over the region today is bringing warmer temperatures and instability into the region. Tomorrow will see a better chance of thunderstorms with a cold front.
Then on Friday night we will see our coldest night of the fcst with lows dropping to near freezing Plateau, and only slightly higher elsewhere.