Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Showers and thunderstorms will develop in the vicinity of GLH, GWO, and GTR after midnight as a weak cold front moves into the area. /26/ Latest Rap and Satellite imagery showed flat ridging through the atmosphere. A stationary cold front was positioned just north of the forecast area where there was a big difference in temps. For Tuesday expect the chances of rain to spread south to around the interstate 20 corridor as the cold front makes it way slowly to the south. Highs on Tuesday will range from the Lower 70s north to the lower 80s south.
At the surface, high pressure has settled in across much of the area. Tuesday will be dry as high pressure persists across the region.
With mostly clear skies and high pressure, radiational cooling will be very effective overnight. Also of concern with these clear and cold conditions is the potential for freezing fog. Currently expect freezing fog around Fort Peck Lake and along some of the river valleys Tuesday morning. With the ridge in place Tuesday, high temperatures will be a little warmer, reaching into the 20s and 30s with sunny skies.
Could actually see some non-diurnal trends along the Buffalo Ridge as areas get slight downslope enhancement.
Light northerly winds today generally 10 kts or less with combined seas generally 2-3 ft with similar conditions tonight but winds will become more variable as a ridge builds over the local waters through Monday from Apalachee Bay. Late Tue into Wed offshore flow develops as the ridge settle south of the waters and a weakening front settles south over Georgia. Northerly flow will develop Thu with an increase in wind speeds as the frontal boundary settles south of the local waters and stronger high pressure builds NW of the region.
Showers will become widespread across our region into this evening and continue overnight as the low moves eastward. Winds will shift from northeast to north overnight due to the movement of the low. Meanwhile, high pressure over the northern Plains will be steadily sinking southward and eventually will aid in shoving moisture southward.
556 PM CST Mon Nov 6 2017 The pattern aloft featured zonal flow across much of the interior United States, however upstream a trough of low pressure extended from Alberta southwest into Oregon. This trough will make its was east across the northern Rockies today, with a cold front pushing south across the Central Plains tonight.
545 PM CST Mon Nov 6 2017 The cold front in southern Arkansas will continue to move south.
That is expected to change during the overnight and early TUE morning hours as considerable moisture within the lowest few thousand feet results in low stratus and/or reduced VSBYS. At the sfc, a cold front is located from the southern plains east northeast acrs the lower MS valley, or roughly from central TX into southern AR/northern MS.
High pressure remains over the region through Tuesday, and cloudy conditions will persist. The clouds will impact temperatures by keeping them a bit higher overnight and cooler during the day. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 30s away from the city, and highs Tuesday will be in the low to upper 40s.
911 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017 Drier and cooler weather will prevail today as a cold front crosses the region. Forecast soundings indicate that the lower atmosphere will take some time to saturate and show virga or sprinkles may be a common in the morning hours. As the low advances through West Virginia, easterly flow on the northeast flank will dam cold air along the easterly slopes of our ridges. Models differ some, but there is indication of freezing rain or sleet potential.
639 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017 Aviation A high pressure ridge will build in from the west and bring fair weather through midweek along with seasonable temperatures.
616 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017 High pressure in the forecast area will weaken tonight ahead of an approaching cold front.
Upper trough axis is moving over our CWA at this time so forcing is expected to diminish over the area.
528 PM CST Mon Nov 6 2017 WV imagery this afternoon showing that the large scale pattern has amplified a bit since yesterday in part to a positive tilt trof currently extending from the Pac NW into central Canada. a large area of high pressure was in control over the majority of the eastern half of the CONUS.
Otherwise it looks cloudy and cold with highs struggling in the lower 40s and upper 30s all day, especially in central missouri.
Despite radar echoes to our north and west, no precipitation is expected across the forecast area due to a significant dry layer in the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere. Sounding show the lower levels on the atmosphere are very dry so not expecting any precip. Light north winds will dominate tonight as the high remains stationary.
924 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017 High pressure will build across the area tonight, and will remain in control over the southern Great Lakes region through midweek. Low pressure slides east through the Ohio valley on Tuesday.
/issued 239 PM CST Mon Nov 6 2017/ Today will be the last day of near record warmth before a cold front arrives tomorrow.
This will change as the evening progresses, as all short-term guidance remains in excellent agreement showing a band of moderate snowfall setting up in the Flat Tops and Park Range as an upper-level trough dives southward. The 12z ECMWF has come in a bit deeper, stronger, and slower with the upper level trough diving in from the north. transient ridging moves in for the middle and end of the week.
938 PM CST Mon Nov 6 2017 Based on the evening short-term model guidance and obs trends, have updated tonight's forecast to push the cold front farther south into the Central Texas counties prior to daybreak. Some of the high resolution models show the return of the low clouds during the overnight hours. For the Waco TAF site: The cold front just moved through the area during the last hour. With the cold front so close to the area, confidence is high that MVFR conditions will return early morning with the possibility of IFR ceilings between 1100-1500 UTC. /Issued 353 PM CST Mon Nov 6 2017/ /Tuesday Night and Beyond/ The cold front will have surged south across Central Texas by Tuesday night, advecting cool, Canadian air into the region.
522 PM CST Mon Nov 6 2017 Once again, the presence of the backdoor cold front draped across the fcst area plus the associated clouds played havoc with temperatures today across much of the region.
The energy off the southern California coast didn't really engage as quickly with the higher latitude trough support as expected this morning.
Added in freezing drizzle to the forecast with surface reports and webcams across north central SD showing some occurring. Also, extended the freezing drizzle into central SD. High pressure moves in later tonight and will be the dominant feature over the region on Tuesday, resulting in dry conditions, less clouds, and continued cool temperatures. Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 20s east to the lower 30s west.
Westerly sfc flow will begin veering in advance of a cold front set to enter the area near the end of the forecast period, w/increasing high clouds as well. /issued 239 PM CST Mon Nov 6 2017/ Today will be the last day of near record warmth before a cold front arrives tomorrow.
Tonight and Tuesday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show high pressure stretching from the northern Rockies into the western Great Lakes early this afternoon. A weak area of low pressure is moving east over western South Dakota, and is producing snow over eastern S.
702 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017 Rain over southern Vermont will come to an end early this evening as a cold front exits the area to the east.
As a result, we should see an increase in clouds across much of the area into the evening, before high pressure wedges itself in during the overnight hours. High pressure will remain in control of our weather on Tuesday, with partly to mostly sunny skies across the Northland.
Some of the higher res models depict areas along and north of Interstate 20, and a few more show most of the CWFA.
The initially zonal upper-level flow across the lower 48 will amplify with time.
643 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017 Rain over southern Vermont will come to an end early this evening as a cold front exits the area to the east.
High pressure over Minnesota will maintain north to northeasterly winds across the lake.
/Issued 522 PM CST Mon Nov 6 2017/ Once again, the presence of the backdoor cold front draped across the fcst area plus the associated clouds played havoc with temperatures today across much of the region.
608 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017 Issued 620 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017 High pressure will build into the Great Lakes for most of this week but temperatures will be cool with highs mainly in the 40s and lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
High pressure will remain in control of our weather through much of the short term period. Tuesday looks to be another warm day, our last day in the 90s before a cold frontal boundary moves through. Aloft, the stubborn mild level ridge begins to build a little to the west and perhaps even weaken just a bit.
Several things going on at forecast time, most of which revolve around the cold front draped across our southern counties. This allowed temperatures, especially south of the cold front, to climb well into the 70s.
536 PM CST Mon Nov 6 2017 A rather strong high pressure continues to push into the region but the low pressure center and associated frontal system to the south simply refuses to push further to the south and is stalled in Southern OK and Northern TX. The high pressure center continues to build into the parts of Eastern CO providing north and northeast flow across the region and with mid level moisture streaming in from the Southwest creates a strong over running situation over the CWA.
/Tonight through Tuesday/ Broad upper trough digging through the northern/western two-thirds of the conus with a stream of impulses expected to move through the central US.
Upper level and surface ridging across the Gulf and Florida will remain in place through the period. Stable dry conditions under the ridging will continue to support pleasant dry weather with light winds and above normal temperatures. Temperature tonight and Tuesday will remain some 5 to 7 degrees above seasonal norms with lows tonight in the lower to mid 60s inland areas, and mid to upper 60s along the coast, with daytime highs on Tuesday climbing into the lower and middle 80s.
Clouds may not lift much at KCDS, and there also is a risk of the low clouds remaining on the Caprock, as a reinforcing cold front with northeast winds is expected to surge into the area around midday to early Tuesday afternoon. As expected, this was not the big cold push as temperatures at 2030Z range from the lower 60s in the Childress area to near 80 in Yoakum County. This moisture will come into play beginning tomorrow night as an upper level trough begins to sweep out of southern CO.
For the overnight, the front may lift north as a warm front into the TN River valley, but should otherwise make little northward progress. During the morning Tuesday, pressure rises will drive the front south as a cold front, exiting north MS by midday. However, scattered to numerous showers may persist into overnight hours, eventually shifting to the south and east after midnight as a reinforcing cold front moves through the CWA. This cold front will continue south on Tuesday, allowing a cooler continental air mass to filter into Mid-South.
High pressure moves in later tonight and will be the dominant feature over the region on Tuesday, resulting in dry conditions, less clouds, and continued cool temperatures. Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 20s east to the lower 30s west.
The only exception is a cluster of showers moving off the mainland into the Gulf waters well north of the lower Keys. The Key West evening sounding measure a little more moisture in the lowest kilometer, but otherwise a fairly dry and stable atmosphere above 850mb. With the winds as light as they are, there is a concern that showers could develop over the lower Keys fossil boundary.
00 UTC surface analysis shows an area of high pressure located SW of the Florida Panhandle over the Gulf of Mexico. With high pressure nearby, winds at the surface have already gone calm and temperatures are falling into the mid 60s.
555 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017 High pressure will build across the area tonight, and will remain in control over the southern Great Lakes region through midweek. Low pressure slides east through the Ohio valley on Tuesday.
840 PM CST Mon Nov 6 2017 Increased the areal coverage of freezing drizzle this evening with several reports along with some slick spots. Mobridge has changed over to light snow along with webcams to our north and west showing light snow now. Added in freezing drizzle to the forecast with surface reports and webcams across north central SD showing some occurring. Also, extended the freezing drizzle into central SD. High pressure moves in later tonight and will be the dominant feature over the region on Tuesday, resulting in dry conditions, less clouds, and continued cool temperatures. Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 20s east to the lower 30s west.
423 PM MST Mon Nov 6 2017 Updated Aviation Discussion High pressure will drift southeast across the region tonight for clearing skies and generally light winds, which will allow temperatures to fall rapidly this evening with many locations seeing temperatures fall to single digits above and below zero.
212 PM PST Mon Nov 6 2017 Widespread freezing conditions are expected tonight.
Low temps will be in the mid to upper 60s across the CWA, with the chance for temps to cool a bit more in northwestern locations as cooler air filters in behind the front. /TH/ Prior discussion below: Latest Rap and Satellite imagery showed flat ridging through the atmosphere. A stationary cold front was positioned just north of the forecast area where there was a big difference in temps. For Tuesday expect the chances of rain to spread south to around the interstate 20 corridor as the cold front makes it way slowly to the south. Highs on Tuesday will range from the Lower 70s north to the lower 80s south.
1222 PM EDT Tue Mar 27 2018 Periods of showers will occur as a cold front slowly approaches and then moves across the area into Wednesday.
938 AM EDT Tue Mar 27 2018 High pressure will remain over New England through today will fair weather expected. A warm front will approach tonight with increasing clouds and perhaps some light precipitation late tonight through Wednesday morning.
Upper level high pressure will remain over NorCal this week producing warm and dry weather.
In the middle and upper levels(700-200 mb), latest GOES 16-R imagery overlaid with model streamline analysis as of 900 am, depict a diving middle and upper low pressure system over the Four Corners in the Southwest. Downstream of that, an amplified middle and upper ridge dominates both the Central and Eastern CONUS as well as the Gulf of Mexico. South Florida and the Florida Keys are fixed beneath this ridging. South Florida and the Keys lie beneath the southwestern periphery of this burgeoning early spring ridging. Temperatures across the islands are in the lower to mid 70s, with dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s.
Temperatures ranged from the lower teens to lower 30s. The upper trough to the west will slide east into the Central PLains today.
The middle level drying will end the light rain this morning, with the low level drying eventually scattering out the stratus this afternoon.
Building high pressure will result in a warming trend along with dry weather conditions through late week.
Really thought we'd end up a little warmer than the eventual morning lows. Best chance for this occurring will be southwest of the metro area, so I'll keep the warmer temperatures in Middle TN down there.
/issued 242 AM CDT Tue Mar 27 2018/ Wx map shows low pressure trof associated with the frontal zone from W TX over OK and northeastward, and high pressure over the Eastern U. ridging south and southwestward across the SE U. This is continuing a modest SE flow across the region, keeping temps in the lower 70s. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies, temperatures reaching the lower 80s. The upper air pattern shows the upper level trough digging across the Western U. will move slowly eastward today through Wednesday, where the trough axis is expected to be across West Texas.
An upper ridge of high pressure over the region this morning will gradually shift eastward toward the east coast over the next 24 hours.
Weak cold front, currently across southern BC westward into the Pacific, will shift south into our CWA tonight.
A low pressure system will exit the region today with windy conditions across southeast California and lingering chances of light showers across the higher terrain in far eastern Arizona. High pressure will then build in from the west resulting in a strong warming trend.
With that being said, expect cloud cover and cooler temperatures to dominate the area during this time as well. As a cold front continues to pass southward through the forecast area, expect showers in southeastern Texas Panhandle to increase in coverage north and northwestward into other parts of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. With the passage of the cold front, today will be the coolest day in the seven day forecast package.
This moisture will shift southeast as high pressure builds across the region in response to the H500 height rises that will set up over the Upper Midwest. Highs could approach or exceed 50 degrees ahead of a cold front moving across the area Wednesday afternoon. The Hudson Bay cyclonic upper level low which has been very persistent over the Winter, will return across most of the CONUS with a broad long wave trough centered across North America. Based on the typical fast west-northwest flow aloft and embedded short waves in this flow, several areas of low pressure will likely form in the northern tier of the nation.
Once the low clouds lift, VFR conditions will likely prevail through the remainder of this period with light southeasterly winds across our area. Wedge of cool air is showing some signs of weakening this morning, as the low-level flow becomes more easterly to east-southeasterly and the low-cloud deck begins to burn off. Expect the low clouds to continue to diminish this morning from south to north, allowing for temperatures to rise well into the 70s by this afternoon.
The lower conditions will move offshore by this afternoon, then returning this evening. High pressure is building over the area, and a thermal trough will start developing this afternoon. That being said, temperatures are expected to be a few degrees warmer than last night, and thus are not expected to be near critical thresholds for local agriculture. The warmer trend will continue, and today will be quite a bit warmer than yesterday. After that, a ridge of high pressure will continue the warming and drying trend. This warming trend will also coincide with a drying trend where the mid to upper slopes and ridges will start seeing moderate overnight recoveries as easterly winds help to dry things out. Models continue to push back the pattern change from the Ridge to another Atmospheric River type event.
Northwest flow ahead of an offshore ridge will persist today.
Temperatures will be much warmer as well as a warmer air mass moves across the CWA. The vast majority of the period should feature a mid level trof across the middle of the country.
538 AM MDT Tue Mar 27 2018 The region will remain on the SW periphery of a deep upper trough centered over interior Canada. A stronger western NOAM ridge topping impulse will force a vigorous cold front into the region by the end of the work week, with temperatures expected to be 15-25 degrees below seasonal averages by this coming weekend.
614 AM CDT Tue Mar 27 2018 Sunshine returns for much of the area today along with warmer temperatures the next couple of days, however rain returns to the forecast later Wednesday.
Right now, satellite shows a deep trough centered over the southwest U. At the surface, the low pressure is centered over western MO, with the cold front extending from Clark County, MO to Miami County, KS. The co-location of the tropical moisture advection, LLJ, and cold front has resulted in widespread moderate to heavy rain across MO, particularly the I-44 corridor.
948 AM EDT Tue Mar 27 2018 Warm front early this morning.
Much warmer temperatures are expected today with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Behind tonight's convection, a cold front will move south into west and west central Texas, and stall from the southeastern corner of New Mexico, southeast into the Hill Country. Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees cooler tomorrow than we saw today. (Wednesday through Tuesday) An upper level trough will move across the Texas Panhandle on Wednesday, with rain chances coming to an end from west to east across West Central Texas. Much cooler temperatures are forecast behind a front that will move through the area early Wednesday morning. Expect highs to range from the mid 60s across the Big Country to the low to mid 70s across the Interstate 10 corridor.
Wedge of cool air is showing some signs of weakening this morning, as the low-level flow becomes more easterly to east-southeasterly and the low-cloud deck begins to burn off. Expect the low clouds to continue to diminish this morning from south to north, allowing for temperatures to rise well into the 70s by this afternoon.
A warm front will move NE across central NC late tonight and Wednesday. The strong and chilly ridge of high pressure along the eastern seaboard is forecast to slowly give way later today and tonight. As this ridge moves east, the WAA pattern seen just to our west currently over the TN valley into the Appalachians will spread east.
Some patchy fog in the low spots/river valleys in the clearing areas from Broomfield to Longmont to Berthoud. Forecast temperatures look alright, with only slightly warmer lows tonight due to less cloud cover.
1050 AM MDT Tue Mar 27 2018 The region will remain on the SW periphery of a deep upper trough centered over interior Canada. A stronger western NOAM ridge topping impulse will force a vigorous cold front into the region by the end of the work week, with temperatures expected to be 15-25 degrees below seasonal averages by this coming weekend.
Weather impacts this morning during the predawn hours stem from saturated airmass producing some localized patchy freezing drizzle across west central MN into Lakes Country. Will include a mention of freezing drizzle through the early morning with minimal accumulation. WAA regime expected to bring a band of precip across the northern half of the FA with a rain snow and possible freezing rain mix. Road temps will be around the freezing mark and some patchy slick spots will be possible Wednesday morning. NW winds at 20mph gusting to 30mph behind the front will bring cooler air to the region with temps steady to falling in its wake as it pushes through during the first half of Wednesday.
A cold front will approach our area today, and bring a slight chance for showers to the extreme northwest part of Middle Tennessee today. Locally heavy rainfall will be likely in the immediate vicinity of the cold front, with most of the heavy rainfall through Wednesday forecast to be over western and north-central areas, including the Nashville Metro area.
Positively tilted upper level trough over the southwest US will slowly push eastward today. Moisture will gradually increase as southeasterly flow continues in advance of this upper trough. Upper level impulse rounds base of the trough this afternoon and approaches western parts of the area. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase tonight to our northwest as convection develops on the higher terrain of Mexico and along southward moving cold front. The upper level trough continues to push eastward into West Texas on Wednesday and cold front approaches South Texas.
Gusty south winds are helping to keep temperatures steady in the low to mid 70s, which are generally around 15 to 20 degrees above normal lows for this time of the month.