Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The low cloud cover will likely persist through at least tomorrow morning.
115 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2020 A low pressure system will exit the region tonight.
This trof is not nearly as cold as previous systems which trigger thunder earlier this winter.
Moisture with the next approaching trough will begin to move into eastern Oregon tonight, and will fill in most of the forecast area by the mid-morning hours of Sunday. Isolated instances of freezing rain will be possible overnight. Conditions deteriorating tonight as an upper level trough spreads rain and snow across the area from the west.
Today will be another cloudy day, although warmer than yesterday with highs in the mid and upper 40s.
This may have a slight impact on forecast lows but still a chilly night in the low to mid 40s. After a chilly start, temperatures will recover nicely, but an increase in cirrus overhead is expected to keep highs slightly cooler than those of today.
309 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2020 Occluded low pressure system will slowly vacate the region over the next 24 hours.
The upper low pivoting across Se Mi will exit east of Port Huron late this evening. Limited thermal advection this evening will hold surface temps in the low to mid 30s, mainly above freezing. There will be a good region of mid level subsidence expanding across Se Mi around/shortly after midnight in the wake of the upper low. Temps should continue to hold around or just above freezing overnight, so there is not the expectation for significant freezing drizzle concerns.
354 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2020 Low pressure over the central Great Lakes will reach northern New England by evening.
106 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2020 High pressure will build from the lower MS Valley eastward across the Southeast through the weekend. A drier NW flow will be found behind the trough's passage. Lows generally in the lower to mid 30s expected. With dry air in place and little in the way of appreciable isentropic forcing across the area, Sunday should end up a pleasant day with slightly cooler temperatures, mostly sunny skies, and light winds.
235 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2020 235 AM CST The threat of drizzle and freezing drizzle will continue to wane across the area early this morning. However, expect cloud cover to hang on over the area, with highs today in the lower to mid 30s.
330 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2020 High pressure will build south of the area today.
351 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2020 The morning surface analysis shows an area of high pressure off to our south across the Tennessee Valley. The clouds associated with the upper level low now in the eastern Great Lakes remain in place across eastern Kentucky this morning. The next upper level will pull a weaker area of low pressure into western Kentucky and a weak frontal boundary will setup across southern Kentucky. Right now do keep the far north above freezing and more of rain/snow mix where temperatures are cold enough. However, given the marginal ice aloft could see this being more drizzle/rain, and depending on the temperatures this wouldnât keep freezing drizzle completely off the table. Although given the warmer ground temperatures overall think this would be low impact either way.
928 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020 Clearing skies over western and southern counties have allowed temperatures to fall to freezing in many places.
The clouds are keeping temperatures mild tonight, with min temps generally right around the freezing mark. This means that freezing drizzle is a possibility, but will not be a widespread problem. Modest west to northwest winds will prevail tonight through Sunday night as low pressure slowly moves across southeast Canada. Temperatures right around freezing should keep pavement from becoming icy, but if temps drop a little lower than expected, light ice is possible. The upper low over ern Lower MI will move across the lower Great Lakes tnt, while a vorticity maximum just north of Lake Superior will move swd into ne WI, then ewd to the nrn portion of Lower MI by 12Z Sun.
300 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2020 We've seen a narrow band of precip moving across southern MN trough the night, on the leading edge of a good PV push.
The long and short of it is this is a quite weakly forced environment over the coming days, and all cards on the table here, forecast confidence beyond about 24 hours will remain on the lower side. Not much of a signal regarding forcing mechanisms - perhaps just a touch of weak PV advection on the back side of the closed low over the eastern Great Lakes.
1238 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2020 Aviation Low pressure will move through Lower Michigan tonight with scattered snow showers continuing through Sunday. Expect mostly snow showers tonight into Sunday but accums should be negligible as surfaces are above freezing.
208 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2020 High pressure will build in very slowly from the north through the next few days.
Mainly quiet and grey weather prevail through at least the middle of the week, but may see some areas of light freezing drizzle at times. Overall it is going to be another quiet and mostly cloudy day with temperatures near to a little above seasonal norms in the low to mid 30s. Thus not expecting much in the way of impactful sensible weather, but each wave will act to reinforce the low stratus deck encompassing the state. Did include a mention of some light freezing drizzle in northwest Iowa late tonight as model soundings show modest low level saturation beneath increasing deep layer ascent ahead of a wave dropping south through the Dakotas.
GFS, ECMWF, NAM) remains in good agreement that the highest rainfall amounts associated with this system will remain offshore.
Along with light and variable winds, H500 heights rising through the day and mostly clear skies, temperatures should warm up above average with highs in the low to mid 60s.
Surface analysis depicts the cold front which passed through the Keys earlier today now located from the northern Bahamas to western Cuba, with weak high pressure building eastward from the central Gulf Coast behind this front. Lows by morning should drop to around 60 in the Upper Keys, and range from the lower to mid 60s elsewhere. Evening observations show northerly winds have been strongest, in the Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) range of 15 to 20 knots, across the portions of the Keys waters adjacent to the Lower Keys, with winds generally running 15 knots or less elsewhere.
1015 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020 Update Low pressure will move through Lower Michigan tonight with scattered snow showers continuing through Sunday. Expect mostly snow showers tonight into Sunday but accums should be negligible as surfaces are above freezing.
Early this afternoon, satellite showed a mature upper level low centered over the main peninsula of Michigan and slowly sliding towards the northeast. While most of our area has cleared out the low level clouds with this system, some lingering low clouds were still present over central Missouri. Despite the afternoon sunshine, some intermittent high clouds are now pushing into the area, which will keep high temperatures on the lower side of model guidance.
1105 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020 The last local influence of the low over the eastern Great Lakes is being seen in the form of widely scattered light snow showers east of the I-35 corridor today. Hi-res models have been persistent in featuring a warm nose leading to a band of light freezing rain over the eastern Dakotas with this feature. Would not rule out a period of freezing precipitation in the western part of the forecast area, but it would most likely be very light (freezing drizzle).
1200 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2020 Cloudy skies tonight, with continued chances of light snow over the higher elevations of northern Iron county. Northerly flow will continue through tonight in the higher levels of the atmosphere, keeping cold temperatures in place. The NAM and RAP model soundings both indicate drier air developing in the ice bearing layer aloft, leading to the potential for freezing drizzle over Iron county Sunday. Sunday night lows will fall to the middle teens north to the lower 20s south.
Clearing skies over western and southern counties have allowed temperatures to fall to freezing in many places.
1033 PM MST Sat Jan 25 2020 Upper level ridge will build into Colorado overnight and through the day on Sunday, keeping mainly dry and mild conditions in place across the state the next 24 hrs. Could still see a flurry or two this evening over the higher peaks of the central mountains before activity ends toward midnight, though not expecting any accumulating snow. Overnight low temps will continue to trend upward slightly, with weak downslope flow keeping areas along and just west of I-25 near freezing through much of the night.
820 PM MST Sat Jan 25 2020 High pressure aloft will settle over Utah through the weekend.
1013 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020 High pressure will build south of the area through Sunday.
349 AM MST Sun Jan 26 2020 Overnight WV/IR imagery depicted upper lows over the eastern Great Lakes and ND, and a upper ridge across the Intermountain West. Will continue the High Wind Warning through its 8 AM expiration. Above normal temperatures in the 40s to around 50 are forecast east of the Laramie Range this afternoon as the ridge passes overhead. Snow showers will redevelop west of the Laramie Range this evening ahead of an approaching Pacific trough. Rain may mix with snow over the high plains Monday afternoon before changing to snow before tapering off Monday evening as the trough exits into the Great Plains.
We'll need to watch for additional light precipitation this evening as a weak upper level trough axis and low level boundary move through. Monday will be dry as a brief upper level ridge moves over the area.
Light precipitation will persist over the region this morning as a cold front pushes inland.
332 AM MST Sun Jan 26 2020 Radar and observations show a little lingering light snow in the east, which may mix with a little light freezing rain before ending this morning. After a weak cold front clears the area today, precipitation focus will end and attention will turn more toward low clouds and fog and potential impacts to travel and to aviation. For today, light snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain, will be a concern for KSDY to KGDV. Tonight, low stratus and freezing fog will be a concern across taf sites.
Occluded low pressure system will slowly vacate the region over the next 24 hours.
Temperatures will be above freezing in all locations so no wintry weather is expected this time around.
Dry air begins to filter in this morning and clouds will clear from northwest to southeast behind a weak cold front.
Along with light and variable winds, H500 heights rising through the day and mostly clear skies, temperatures should warm up above average with highs in the low to mid 60s. Meccariello An upper level short wave trough will be approaching the 4-corners region by Monday. The GFS model is the fastest and it has the lower amount of the QPF.
Went with MAV/MEX for forecast highs instead of NBM as the NBM is typically too cool on the return of warmer air. Showers and a few thunderstorms should be returning to the local area mid week as a slightly more amplified trough moves right in the path of the one before it. A stronger open wave trough will move through the area mid week.
Skies will gradually clear from west to east this morning into the afternoon as drier air pushes in with high pressure building.
Much of the area has likely already seen the lowest temperatures for the night.
314 AM MST Sun Jan 26 2020 Region in between an upper level low over North Dakota and a dirty ridge building over the Pacific Northwest. Have removed freezing rain mention for Baker from the morning forecasts.
This low is progged to slide from west to east across the northern gulf today with rain gradually ending by late this afternoon although a few isolated light showers could linger into the evening. Light northerly winds will develop in its wake as high pressure slides quickly into the region, but with no distinctly drier airmass at the surface, the wet ground and light winds will provide favorable conditions for fog development late tonight into Monday morning. With the high in place and weak upper ridging aloft, Monday will be a generally quiet weather day once the fog dissipates by mid morning.
Given the warmer start, temps should still reach the 40s to around 50 today, with warmest readings across far southwest Missouri.
A weak cold front will push into north central Idaho later this morning then western Montana this afternoon. This feature will cause widespread precipitation, but once again snow will be mainly confined to the higher terrain. The timing of this system should keep the precipitation type mainly rain for the valleys, but localized freezing rain can not be ruled out. An exiting weather system during Monday morning continues to show a moisture profile that could lead to a mix of snow and freezing rain.
Behind the front, drier air will allow skies to clear and temperatures to rise into the lower 80s this afternoon and drop into the mid to upper 50s by Monday morning. As the high pressure continues to move off to the east, winds shift to become easterly on Monday morning picking up in speed towards the evening with the increasing pressure gradient between the high pressure over the Mississippi River Valley and low pressure forming over the Texas Panhandle.
METARS don't show any -RA until you get back to Memphis, so we've still got a few dry hours ahead of us until the lower atmosphere moistens.
410 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2020 Chances for light freezing rain and light snow will continue today, except across far southwest North Dakota where dry conditions are expected. Within the warm sector of the low, light freezing rain is occurring from time to time across portions of central North Dakota. Across the northwest, light snow is occurring behind the cold front. Current thinking is that light freezing rain will change over to light snow once the cold front moves across the area. With that said, forecast RAP/NAM/GFS BUFR soundings behind the cold front show some periods of drying aloft within the ice production layer today, which would promote freezing rain or drizzle. Therefore, a mention of both freezing rain and snow is in the forecast for today.
The low-level moisture has also been scoured out of north central Nebraska, so finally sunshine is expected after days of low clouds and fog. This will back a cold front southwest into the area. The low ceilings will steadily progress south tonight reaching southwest Nebraska by Monday morning.
Temperatures should warm to the low 70s for much of the Concho Valley, Hill Country and Edwards Plateau, but only reach the upper 60s in the Big Country. Tonight, skies will remain clear with slightly drier conditions expected in the low levels.
430 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2020 Areas of a light wintry mix of snow and freezing drizzle will continue early this morning.
520 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2020 Chances for light freezing rain and light snow will continue today, except across far southwest North Dakota where dry conditions are expected. Within the warm sector of the low, light freezing rain is occurring from time to time across portions of central North Dakota. Across the northwest, light snow is occurring behind the cold front. Current thinking is that light freezing rain will change over to light snow once the cold front moves across the area. With that said, forecast RAP/NAM/GFS BUFR soundings behind the cold front show some periods of drying aloft within the ice production layer today, which would promote freezing rain or drizzle. Therefore, a mention of both freezing rain and snow is in the forecast for today.
532 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2020 Areas of dense freezing fog have developed across northern Missouri as of early Sunday and additional development is expected as the morning progresses. Further south, patchy freezing fog is possible through mid-morning, as well. A thin glaze of ice may develop on roadways as a result, primarily across northern Missouri, but also where patchy freezing fog develops elsewhere through much of the forecast area.
Today will see a similar day to yesterday for most of the region, as weak ridging takes over, allowing temps to again rise into the 30s and 40s for lower elevations. The complicating factor around the Casper area will be temperatures, which will be near or just above freezing most of the morning tomorrow.
413 AM MST Sun Jan 26 2020 Overnight WV/IR imagery depicted upper lows over the eastern Great Lakes and ND, and a upper ridge across the Intermountain West. Will continue the High Wind Warning through its 8 AM expiration. Above normal temperatures in the 40s to around 50 are forecast east of the Laramie Range this afternoon as the ridge passes overhead. Snow showers will redevelop west of the Laramie Range this evening ahead of an approaching Pacific trough. Rain may mix with snow over the high plains Monday afternoon before changing to snow before tapering off Monday evening as the trough exits into the Great Plains.
636 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2020 Areas of a light wintry mix of snow and freezing drizzle will continue early this morning.
Low pressure over the central Great Lakes will reach northern New England by evening.
/Today through Monday/ A large band of showers and isolated thunderstorms continue in a warm air advection regime over much of the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Patchy fog is likely across the entire area during the nighttime hours through late Monday morning, especially given the wet soil conditions and somewhat warmer overnight temperatures.
Today through Monday: Satellite and radar show a low pressure system off the coast of Washington with a band of precipitation extending from the Olympic Penninsula down to north-central Oregon. Low temperatures overnight will be right around freezing, so any snow showers that do occur will have a tough time accumulating on early Monday morning.
Patchy fog has developed across Deep South Texas early this morning, but is beginning to dissipate at all 3 Rio Grande Valley airports and doppler radar shows some light showers across the lower valley that are quickly moving off to the east. Behind the front, drier air will allow skies to clear and temperatures to rise into the lower 80s this afternoon and drop into the mid to upper 50s by Monday morning. As the high pressure continues to move off to the east, winds shift to become easterly on Monday morning picking up in speed towards the evening with the increasing pressure gradient between the high pressure over the Mississippi River Valley and low pressure forming over the Texas Panhandle.
A weak mid-level short wave will slide east from the southern Plains into the lower MS River Valley today and this evening. Brief ridging at the surface and aloft will take place on Monday/Monday night, bringing an end to any rain chances. Still not convinced we will get into much sunshine though, as the ridge looks to be be fairly dirty in nature.
This would keep temperatures for many in the low 40s.
352 AM MST Sun Jan 26 2020 Overnight WV/IR imagery depicted upper lows over the eastern Great Lakes and ND, and a upper ridge across the Intermountain West. Will continue the High Wind Warning through its 8 AM expiration. Above normal temperatures in the 40s to around 50 are forecast east of the Laramie Range this afternoon as the ridge passes overhead. Snow showers will redevelop west of the Laramie Range this evening ahead of an approaching Pacific trough. Rain may mix with snow over the high plains Monday afternoon before changing to snow before tapering off Monday evening as the trough exits into the Great Plains.
639 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2020 Low pressure over the central Great Lakes will reach northern New England by evening.
All precip should stay liquid also since majority of progged thermal profiles taken in the NE mtns are too warm in the lower levels and GFS appears to be a colder outlier.
Surface temperatures are warming above freezing in these areas.
414 AM MST Sun Jan 26 2020 Latest upper air and satellite analysis show areas of clouds in the northwest flow over the Plains, with a ridge over the Great Basin and a trough over the Mississippi River Valley. A closed low was present over North Dakota. Tonight a backdoor cold front will move in from the northeast ahead of the closed low that will move southward into the Central Plains. As a result temperatures will be slightly cooler than last night. Monday morning a short wave ridge will move over the forecast area. Immediately following the ridge will be a short wave trough. As the trough moves in dew point depressions in area soundings decline toward the surface as lift increases. Monday night lift will continue to increase as the upper level short wave trough moves through.
350 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2020 A weak mid-level short wave will slide east from the southern Plains into the lower MS River Valley today and this evening. Brief ridging at the surface and aloft will take place on Monday/Monday night, bringing an end to any rain chances. Still not convinced we will get into much sunshine though, as the ridge looks to be be fairly dirty in nature.
242 AM MST Sun Jan 26 2020 Latest upper air and satellite analysis show areas of clouds in the northwest flow over the Plains, with a ridge over the Great Basin and a trough over the Mississippi River Valley. A closed low was present over North Dakota. Tonight a backdoor cold front will move in from the northeast ahead of the closed low that will move southward into the Central Plains. As a result temperatures will be slightly cooler than last night. Monday morning a short wave ridge will move over the forecast area. Immediately following the ridge will be a short wave trough. As the trough moves in dew point depressions in area soundings decline toward the surface as lift increases. Monday night lift will continue to increase as the upper level short wave trough moves through.
551 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2020 Weak surface ridging prevailed across the region early this morning with progressive northwest flow aloft. Weak westerly low level flow near the apex of the ridge across southern IA and northern MO was helping advect dense fog eastward. A weak upstream short wave moving through the central Rockies will track southeastward into the lower MS Valley by this evening.
These areas of fog are developing on the back edge of stratus and a line of light wintry mix (sleet and/or freezing rain/drizzle). Partly sunny skies (mainly west of 1-29) and light west winds will keep the region 5 to 10 degrees warmer than average.
Low pressure will move across northern Arizona tonight through Monday afternoon, bringing scattered light rain and snow showers along and north of the Mogollon rim.
Early this morning, a closed upper low continues to spin over the eastern Great Lakes. Highs are expected to reach the low to mid 40s. Temps are forecast to drop to near or below freezing north of I-64, so there could be a narrow zone with patchy drizzle potential and temps near freezing. Time heights cross sections show this low level moisture persisting through much of the entire forecast period, so unfortunately, other than a few breaks in the clouds here and there, the sun won't be making too many appearances.
Winds will become light and variable late afternoon into the evening as high pressure builds overhead. Highs will be within a few degrees on either side of yesterday's realized values generally in the low/mid 60s as skies become mostly to partly cloudy.
Increasing heights and thicknesses behind a short wave trough that is moving eastward down the Red River valley and ahead of an upper level ridge will result in warm max temperatures today and Monday, on the order of 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal norms.