Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1253 AM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Periodic isolated to scattered showers will continue through much of the week under upper level low pressure. Trough will continue to linger and deepen across the nern CONUS. The low/trough should remain across the nern CONUS through Wednesday night.
Guidance suggests the low clouds will remain persistent into the afternoon before a gradual erosion from northwest to southeast. This is driven by a continued stream of monsoonal moisture in the mid-levels around the periphery of the upper ridge. With this in mind, believe the low clouds should persist through the day for areas near/south of Highway 92. This leads to a large range in high temps, with low 80s near the Pine Ridge to the upper 60s across central Nebraska. An expansion of the low clouds occurs again overnight, though only to near Highway 20. The upper high retrogrades westward into midweek and begins to amplify across the Intermountain West.
This combined with the low level jet has allowed for the development of widespread showers across northern MO. Rest of the week: Rain is expected to move out Tuesday afternoon and attention will turn to the much cooler air advecting into the region. On Tuesday, expect highs to only top out in the low to mid 70s.
RMS Flattened ridge will bring more westerly flow aloft, shunting Monsoonal flow that has been over the area the past week or so to the south of the area. Overall a typical summer pattern with highs in the 90s and isolated late day thunderstorms forming over the higher terrain. Chambers Tropical wave currently over SW Texas will retrograde to the west over the next few days pushing upper ridge back into the Great Basin. SW flow over the eastern Pacific will combine with the tropical system to build a strong ridge over the Pacific NW, which in turn forces a deepening north-northwest flow east of the divide in Montana.
Freezing levels around 14KFT imply the updraft would have to be really intense with 50dBz levels approaching 40KFT for hail. Key Points: - Cold front moves through tonight, chance of showers/storms into tomorrow - Much cooler weather arrives for tomorrow, sticks around through the weekend A current look at surface observations across the area shows the key players in our much awaited transition to cooler weather. High pressure to the north is keeping easterly flow in place to the north of the boundary, with widespread clouds and precipitation developing just across the state line into Nebraska. Wednesday through the weekend, the cooler than average weather sticks around. An additional upper low drops south into the main longwave trough late week, reinforcing the mean trough and keeping the overall pattern in place.
The Ohio Valley remains on the western side of a broad upper level trough centered over the eastern US today. The best shower chances are along and east of the Scioto River Valley in the vicinity of the trough. A few showers and some cloud cover may linger into the evening as the inverted trough over the region slowly fills. The broad upper level trough over eastern CONUS remains anchored with the Ohio Valley on the western edge.
At 2am, temperatures and dewpoints were in the low to mid 60s. Highs will top out a few degrees warmer than yesterday in the upper 70s/low 80s, which is near normal for the middle of August. Light north winds and mostly clear skies will be seen tonight, with even drier dewpoints in the low to mid 50s advecting into the region. An upper low will temporarily rotate over the area late this week.
1217 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) An upper level low is currently centered across northern Mexico, west of Eagle Pass. This low is forecast to continue to track northwest, moving across the Big Bend region Tuesday morning. Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this low is forecast to remain south of our area, although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight into Tuesday, mainly across the northern Edwards Plateau. Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
However, if clearing were to occur slower than current thinking, would likely see highs in the low to mid 70s become common instead.
Thus, confidence is on the lower side, in terms of rainfall expected today. Heading into Tuesday night, low temperatures will dip into the low 60s area wide. A mid-level ridge will continue to hold to our west, and a brief break from transient systems will be in store for majority of the area Wednesday. High temperatures look to be in the low 80s, with some areas in the upper 70s.
(Today and tonight) One more very hot day is expected today before a much anticipated cold front leads to some welcomed relief.
High pressure and subsidence will keep mostly clear skies overnight with temperatures dropping into the 50s across most of the area with lower 60s along Lake Michigan.
and Wednesday WI remained on the southwest periphery of a Canadian high pressure system, which was centered over southeast Ontario.
Main takeaway is to expect some rain late Tuesday into Wednesday with cooler temperatures in store. /issued 317 PM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022/ A cooler and unsettled weather pattern will prevail over the Midsouth through midweek, as upper level northwest flow prevails between a closed low over the Northeast and subtropical height ridge extending from the southern plains. However, there are some mitigating factors against a widespread flood potential: height falls and convective outflow may result in a progressive nature to the surface cold front, leading to reduced residence time of heavy rainfall corridors. Nonetheless, a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall appears on target, given the aforementioned precipitable water values and the presence of a weak cold front.
115 AM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022 A cold front will move into the region tonight and Tuesday, lingering in the vicinity through late week.
255 AM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Current surface analysis shows weak frontal boundary to the north of the region, with a weak low pressure system over the central Plains. Upper level analysis continues to show high pressure over the southern high Plains, with ridging starting to build northward across the Rockies region. A drier pattern will be in place across the region through at least the weekend as building western US ridge pushes main disturbances mostly to the north and east of the region. Some upper 70s are likely over the higher Black Hills and parts of south central SD.
Of a more appreciable concern will be the much cooler highs today in the wake of the front. Have the highest confidence of areal coverage across far southwest Kansas. This will be in association with storms developing along the higher terrain of Colorado and then drifting SE through this evening. As a result, will continue with the highest pops this afternoon and evening near Elkhart with lower pops to the east. Our lows heading into Wednesday morning will be a bit cooler as drier air moves in.
Temps across the region have fallen into the low to mid 50s under light winds. High pressure up in Ontario will continue dominating the region today, providing a scattered to mostly clear sky-kinda day with highs climbing into the 70s, save for a couple high 60 locations near Lake Superior. The pattern for the upcoming week is characterized by downstream broad troughing and upstream ridging over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies.
1219 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Upper low moving up from S TX will cross the Big Bend region tonight. Network radar currently shows large area of rain rotating around this low located south of DRT. With increased dewpts and increased cloud cover temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler tomorrow.
The weather on Tuesday won't be drastically different than today, but it may feature a few more afternoon SHRA/sprinkles, especially as an inverted sfc trof pivots back W into the area by late afternoon.
414 AM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022 A cold front will stall near the coast today. Cold front is moving through the area early this morning with a sharp moisture gradient in place. A bit cooler tonight with low temperatures in the upper 60s to around 70. Although a closed upper low remains north of the region through Wednesday night, the upper wind flow pattern over the cwa turns more west/northwesterly. The highest rain chances will be across the southern cwa, closer to the surface front.
1244 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Upper-level ridge prevailing across the region to maintain warm and stable conditions overnight with temperatures forecast to fall into the mid to upper 70s areawide.
Cold front will sink south to near the GA/FL line this afternoon, and stall.
High pressure over the western U. Current dew points this afternoon are clocking in around 65-70 degrees across the lower deserts with light southeasterly flow at the surface. Cumulus clouds and isolated storms are starting to bubble up across the mountains; right on schedule! This pattern will continue with slightly less chances through Wednesday as an area of low pressure now in South Texas meanders its way across northern Mexico and disrupts the monsoonal flow. Look for areas of the high desert, Inland Empire and foothills of San Diego County to be close to 100 degrees each afternoon through this period.
Winds will become increasingly north to northeasterly with high pressure to our north. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 68 81 68 82 / 10 30 50 50 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 66 81 66 82 / 10 10 50 40 50 Oak Ridge, TN 84 65 80 65 81 / 10 10 40 30 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 79 62 79 62 79 / 50 30 50 30 50.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Closed upper-level low pressure will continue to meander over New England today while broad ridging encompasses much of the western two-thirds of the CONUS. High pressure centered to our north will be the dominant feature locally. Status quo Wednesday with northern Michigan located on the far western periphery of the cutoff upper low centered in the Northeast.
After the low clouds and fog lift around mid-morning, skies will become mostly sunny. Mostly clear skies and light winds tonight will allow temperatures to cool into the low-mid 50s. Patchy early morning fog will be possible over parts of the high plains Wednesday, mainly far southeast WY and the southern NE Panhandle.
731 AM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022 VFR conditions should prevail another day as high pressure continues to hold over the northern Great Lakes. This lends a dry start for the CWA as the region remains wedged between a cutoff low to the east and elongated ridging to the west.
729 AM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022 (Today through Wednesday) A trough of low pressure will remain over the Eastern United States keeping a ridge of high pressure over the Florida Straits. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s over most areas, except around 90 west coast metro areas. This will allow for the heat indices to be into the low to mid 100s.
735 AM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Periodic showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will continue through much of the week under upper level low pressure. Adjusted PoPs for the morning update to reflect recent trends as a mid/upper level low continues to support unsettled conditions today. Extensive cloud cover and upper troughing should maintain another day of below average temperature on the order of 5 or so degrees. The low/trough should remain across the nern CONUS through Wednesday night.
634 AM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022 A cold front will stall near the coast today. Cold front is moving through the area early this morning with a sharp moisture gradient in place. A bit cooler tonight with low temperatures in the upper 60s to around 70. Although a closed upper low remains north of the region through Wednesday night, the upper wind flow pattern over the cwa turns more west/northwesterly. The highest rain chances will be across the southern cwa, closer to the surface front.
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022 A cold front will stall near the coast today. These areas could see temperatures that stay in the low 70s if this occurs! However, the chance of at least some broken sunshine is too high to discount that scenario. Although a closed upper low remains north of the region through Wednesday night, the upper wind flow pattern over the cwa turns more west/northwesterly. The highest rain chances will be across the southern cwa, closer to the surface front.
As this low continues drifting west today, moist southeasterly upper tropospheric flow will make for an abundance of high clouds over the South Plains. This stability could be compromised later this evening and overnight as a weak cold front enters our Panhandle counties accompanied by PWATs improving to around 1". Later tonight, the weak cold front should make steady progress through the South Plains after midnight with little/no fanfare before departing our southern zones toward daybreak. The mid-level ridge will be directly atop the CWA late tonight which does not bode well for precip chances much beyond the southern Panhandle.
Late tonight, a weak cold front will usher in light N-NE winds. As this low continues drifting west today, moist southeasterly upper tropospheric flow will make for an abundance of high clouds over the South Plains. This stability could be compromised later this evening and overnight as a weak cold front enters our Panhandle counties accompanied by PWATs improving to around 1". Later tonight, the weak cold front should make steady progress through the South Plains after midnight with little/no fanfare before departing our southern zones toward daybreak. The mid-level ridge will be directly atop the CWA late tonight which does not bode well for precip chances much beyond the southern Panhandle.
The higher chances for rain will generally remain south of I-70/Highway 24 though guidance has hinted at a few storms developing near the Nebraska border along some surface convergence. Otherwise, mostly cloudy to cloudy skies will help keep the area cooler with highs mainly in the low to mid 70's. The higher chances will be further south in Southeastern Colorado and Southwestern Kansas. Tomorrow, the high pressure is forecasted to linger near the area but should begin to push off to the east. Winds are expected to be light with a broad surface pressure gradient and the higher pressure over the area.
606 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 (Today and tonight) One more very hot day is expected today before a much anticipated cold front leads to some welcomed relief.
613 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 (Today and tonight) Upper low moving west into the Big Bend region this morning will continue moving west today. While temperatures in Crockett county may only rise into the lower 90s due to cloud cover, highs in the upper 90s to 100 are expected elsewhere, with the hottest readings in the Big Country.
Most of the shower activity is now limited to near and southwest of the Lower Keys. As has been the case the past few nights, winds have been light and variable with temperatures bottoming out in the lower 80s with the exception of Big Pine Key, with mid 70s. We remain in a col with a persistent surface to upper level trough situated along the eastern U. with a strong and broad ridge that stretches from the West Coast well into the Mississippi River Valley. Meanwhile, the subtropical ridge which had been shoved south and east is trying to regain strength and nose back into the southeastern Bahamas. Given how the atmosphere has responded the last couple of days, did raise PoPs to chance (30 percent) for the Lower Keys while keeping slight chances (20 percent) elsewhere.
An upper- level trough over the Southeast continues to result in light steering flow across the Florida Keys. Given the cloud line extends all the way from the Lower Keys northeastward to the Upper Keys, and there is plenty of daytime left to result in a possible second cloud line developing later this afternoon, uniform low- end chance category (around 30%) seems appropriate through this afternoon. From synopsis, the Florida Keys will remain squeezed between a stationary upper- level trough over the Southeast and a weak ridge over the North Atlantic.
Lows tonight range from the low to mid 50s to low 60s in some areas. This will allow for a large ridge to develop over the western CONUS. High pressure remains over the forecast area Wednesday night with a weak, dry northwest flow.
429 AM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Current surface analysis shows weak frontal boundary to the north of the region, with a weak low pressure system over the central Plains. Upper level analysis continues to show high pressure over the southern high Plains, with ridging starting to build northward across the Rockies region. A drier pattern will be in place across the region through at least the weekend as building western US ridge pushes main disturbances mostly to the north and east of the region. Some upper 70s are likely over the higher Black Hills and parts of south central SD.
703 AM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Periodic showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will continue through much of the week under upper level low pressure. Adjusted PoPs for the morning update to reflect recent trends as a mid/upper level low continues to support unsettled conditions today. Extensive cloud cover and upper troughing should maintain another day of below average temperature on the order of 5 or so degrees. The low/trough should remain across the nern CONUS through Wednesday night.
618 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 (Today through Wednesday) We find ourselves in what's known as a "col" this morning, with high pressure to our north and south and low pressure to our east and west. However, a strong upper ridge has placed us under a northwest flow aloft, and a band of moisture riding down the northwest flow will bring mainly light showers to the mid state today and the cloud cover coupled with a northerly surface flow will keep temperatures well below normal. (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) High pressure will build into Middle Tennessee later in the week, but low rain chances will persist and temperatures will gradually warm back to seasonal values by the weekend.
526 AM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Periodic isolated to scattered showers will continue through much of the week under upper level low pressure. Trough will continue to linger and deepen across the nern CONUS. The low/trough should remain across the nern CONUS through Wednesday night.
422 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Cooler temperatures and higher rain chances will be the story for the next few days. Post-frontal showers and the occasional thunderstorm will intermittently affect the Mid-South over the next 12-48 hours as the aforementioned cold front sinks farther into central to south Mississippi by Wednesday evening.
This wave will bring a cold front through the region tonight, with thunderstorms developing ahead of the front, especially across the eastern zones on Wednesday.
852 AM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Hot and dry conditions are the primary focal point for the next several days, as upper-level ridging persists overhead, keeping most locations in the upper 80s and 90s. A chance for slightly cooler temperatures later this week as well as a return of possible showers this weekend. A cold front pushes southeast through north-central Montana after 06z this evening, reaching KCTB first, and will bring a northwesterly wind shift. Models are in good agreement that weak upper-level ridging will continue through the next day or two, transitioning to a more developed elongated ridge overtop western CONUS and extending into western Canada by midweek.
Hot and dry conditions are the primary focal point for the next several days, as upper-level ridging persists overhead, keeping most locations in the upper 80s and 90s. A chance for slightly cooler temperatures later this week as well as a return of possible showers this weekend. Models are in good agreement that weak upper-level ridging will continue through the next day or two, transitioning to a more developed elongated ridge overtop western CONUS and extending into western Canada by midweek.
/issued 422 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022/ Cooler temperatures and higher rain chances will be the story for the next few days. Post-frontal showers and the occasional thunderstorm will intermittently affect the Mid-South over the next 12-48 hours as the aforementioned cold front sinks farther into central to south Mississippi by Wednesday evening.
143 PM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Periodic showers and perhaps a thunderstorm chances will continue through much of the week under upper level low pressure. Extensive cloud cover and upper troughing should maintain another day of below average temperature on the order of 5 or so degrees. A similar pattern should ensue once again Wednesday as the low/trough should remain near the nern CONUS through Wednesday night.
(This evening through Wednesday) A cold front will begin to accelerate later this afternoon from northwestern Oklahoma into central Oklahoma. Although rather isolated, these storms near the southward-moving cold front would probably impact the greater OKC area 4 PM - 7 PM or so. Overnight, there is a signal for rain and thunderstorms over northwestern Oklahoma associated with the passage of the southern extent of the weak trough passing through the westerlies.
1201 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 (Today and tonight) Upper low moving west into the Big Bend region this morning will continue moving west today. While temperatures in Crockett county may only rise into the lower 90s due to cloud cover, highs in the upper 90s to 100 are expected elsewhere, with the hottest readings in the Big Country.
No precip is expected tonight through mid-day tomorrow as the upper ridge continues to remain overhead. Even if there is not precip to be had tomorrow, one plus from the front will be cooler temps with highs ranging in the upper 80s/90s.
Additionally, a low-level area of low pressure is also indicated to set up to our south. Wednesday During the day on Wednesday, the upper jet will shift slightly southward with the low-level area of low pressure setting up over South Carolina.
A weak cold front remains draped offshore and to the south of the area this afternoon. For temperatures, minimal diurnal range with upper 60s or so tonight and perhaps a bit warmer Wednesday in the lower to middle 80s.
356 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 A cold front moved through the state with the post frontal cold air advection and cloud cover resulting in a range of temperatures.
Lows tonight range from the low to mid 50s to low 60s in some areas. This will allow for a large ridge to develop over the western CONUS.
Due to persistent cloud cover and cooler than normal temperatures, thunder has been limited with these showers and therefore did not include thunder in the overnight forecast. Northerly flow will continue to keep cooler temperatures in place overnight, with lows dropping into the low to mid 60s.
238 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 High pressure was in control over the Midwest which has led to comfortable conditions this afternoon with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Lingering showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will likely persist on Wednesday, including a few strong storms possible near the Red River as cold front stalls over the ARKLATX region.
1120 AM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Current surface analysis shows weak frontal boundary to the north of the region, with a weak low pressure system over the central Plains. Upper level analysis continues to show high pressure over the southern high Plains, with ridging starting to build northward across the Rockies region. A drier pattern will be in place across the region through at least the weekend as building western US ridge pushes main disturbances mostly to the north and east of the region. Some upper 70s are likely over the higher Black Hills and parts of south central SD.