Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS WARMER WITH ESE FLOW. THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST MANITOBA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SNOWS THE THERMAL TROUGH POSITIONED ALONG THE OREGON COAST. OFFSHORE FLOW HAS CONTRIBUTED TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST, INCLUDING BROOKINGS WITH A CURRENT TEMPERATURE OF 77 F. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND.
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES POTENT MID LEVEL CYCLONE OVER ERN MT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ALLOW AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE FA. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES THAT SCT TSRA ARE DVLPG ALNG THE COLD FRONT FROM S-CTNRL SD INTO CNTRL NEB. THIS COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL TEND TO LINGER IN SOUTHWEST IA THROUGH 15Z.
758 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016 THE COMBINATION OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
Also, winds at the surface and low levels will be veering with time through the afternoon as the cold front approaches.
A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS IN PLACE FROM JUST ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA. WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SNW HALF OF THE CW (JUST NORTHWEST OF KMCK AND KGLD). NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A NARROW AXIS OF HIGHER MU CAPE IN THE 900- 1500 J/KG RANGE IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
920 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016 A WARM FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL MEANDER ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL OHIO WEDNESDAY.
THE SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODELS TONIGHT ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT INVOLVING MOVING THE WEAKENING TROUGH SOUTHEAST INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME SLIGHT INSTABILITY REMAINING IN PLACE MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TOWARD MORNING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA A BIT AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD PASS KCDS AND KPVW BEFORE STALLING. A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT IN GENERAL WE EXPECT TOMORROW/S HIGHS TO BE IN THE LOW 80S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE MID 90S AGAIN IN THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME LATE DAY T-STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS RESIDING AROUND THE EASTERN FRINGE OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SMALL TROUGH GRAZING THE REGION IN WRLY FLOW WITHIN THE BASE OF A MUCH LARGER TROUGH AND NRN PLAINS CYCLONE.
800 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016 A WARM FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL MEANDER ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL OHIO WEDNESDAY.
THE PERIOD WILL START AS A COLD FRONT IS ADVANCING TOWARDS THE AREA.
For tonight, will see low pressure strengthen over the central Plains with a warm front starting to lift north into the forecast area. Should see elevated overnight convection develop and may see some fog developing over southern MO as the higher dewpoints move in south of the warm front.
TODAY WAS A WELCOMED REPRIEVE /AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS DETERIORATED/ WITH HIGHS HAVING WARMED INTO THE 80S. WSW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION COURTESY OF BROAD UA TROUGHINESS NOTED ACROSS THE HIGH/NORTHERN PLAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION.
Thunderstorm chances will increase Wednesday evening as a cold front approaches from the north.
THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. CURRENT LOW POSITION WITH PRESSURE FALLS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INDICATES THAT THE LOW SHOULD NOW START TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST WITH BETTER GRADIENT AND ISALLOBARIC WINDS MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE LATEST NAM SHOW THE COLDEST AIR FILTERING INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE. WITH TEMPERATURES THIS COLD WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL. AS THIS LOW PROPAGATES INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY. A MEAN LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FAVORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ON THE 12 UTC GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES.
MVFR cigs to develop over the area in the 08-10z time frame in response to the low level jet. with MVFR cigs developing over the area in the 08-10z time frame in response to the low level jet. Broad upper trough over the northern and central Rockies will gradually move east Wednesday with a trailing cold front pushing into northeast OK by late afternoon.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE RIDGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT WINDS. AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. AS OF 2 PM MDT IDAHO ZONES WERE STILL WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN MONTANA.
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AREA RADARS HAVE BEEN QUIET THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS HAVE RISEN AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. LOW LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY. WEAK TROUGHING WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS.
A WEAK BUT BROAD RIDGE IS SHIFTING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST WHERE THE RIDGE IS LESS DOMINATE. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP UNDER THE RIDGE.
739 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
/issued 233 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016/ An upper trough is strengthening over the northern Rockies and westerly flow is over the CWA. Temperatures are expected to warm up to almost 10 degrees above normal today as southwest winds aid in compressional warming with upper ridging developing over the region. The previously mentioned upper trough will move over the central conus Wednesday with a cold front moving southward across the TX panhandle.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.
A WEAK PSEUDO WARM FRONT REMAINS OVER CENTRAL IOWA WITH MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER NORTHEAST IOWA WHILE MOVE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM KANSAS. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE STRETCHED SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY BE DEPENDENT ON OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL COOL OUTFLOW THAT MAY SUPPRESS THE BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN IOWA. MOST CONCERNING IS THAT THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY OF 200-400 M2S2 IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY THAT COULD EASILY BE TILTED INTO UPDRAFTS AND LEAD TO ROTATING STORMS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRIVING ANOTHER 500 MB TROUGH. BUT A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AT THE SFC. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE GRADUALLY LOWERING OVERNIGHT WELL NORTH OF A WARM FRONT LAID OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA. SLOWLY RISING CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRIVING ANOTHER 500 MB TROUGH. BUT A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AT THE SFC. A WARM FRONT REMAINS DRAPED SOUTH OF THE AREA AND WILL MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT. BUT WE SHOULD SEE CEILINGS SLOWLY LIFT BACK TO MVFR LEVELS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THE AFTERNOON.
836 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016 A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST.
The northerly steering flow will push this convection from the ridge tops and southward across the valleys, drifting across the Spokane/Coeur d'Alene area and into the Palouse before winding down. High and mid clouds will be on the increase which will help temper the radiational cooling and make any low elevation near freezing temperatures patchy at best. Model consensus shows a trough scooting along our northern border with a chance of showers and afternoon thunderstorms. Most areas, other than right along the international border, will see dry and warmer conditions. Increased cloud cover will keep the northern valleys warmer overnight as well.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR A COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS GENERALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLATEAU. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 65 85 65 86 / 40 40 20 50 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 63 81 64 85 / 60 50 30 50 OAK RIDGE, TN 63 81 64 85 / 70 50 30 50 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 59 79 60 83 / 70 50 40 50.
1156 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016 A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST.
918 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016 FINALLY STARTING TO SEE SOME DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT REMAINED PARKED OVER EASTERN MT TODAY HAS STARTED TO CREEP INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW TO MID-20 KNOTS RANGE.
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A NEGATIVELY- TILTED 500-MB TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION DURING REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT -- WITH SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE SAME REGION. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS KY EARLIER TODAY CURRENTLY RESIDES ALONG THE TN-KY BORDER AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCAL POINT FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
\/HODANISH AN UPR TROF WL BE AFFECTING THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED. SOME OF THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE ERN MTNS COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPS ON WED WL BE COOLER AND GENERALLY A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED. WILL MONITOR TRENDS UPSTREAM THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. /ISSUED 438 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016/ LATEST LAPS AND SURFACE OBS SHOW DEEPENING LEE CYCLONE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTENING ON 300-310K SURFACES ON ITS COOL SIDE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR EXPANDING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. WE WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF BUILDING SOUTHWEST CONUS RIDGE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH NORTHWEST FLOW.
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A NEGATIVELY- TILTED 500-MB TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION DURING REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT -- WITH SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE SAME REGION. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS KY EARLIER TODAY CURRENTLY RESIDES ALONG THE TN-KY BORDER AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCAL POINT FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODELS TONIGHT ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT INVOLVING MOVING THE WEAKENING TROUGH SOUTHEAST INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME SLIGHT INSTABILITY REMAINING IN PLACE MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TOWARD MORNING.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS BROAD RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION. /ISSUED 403 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016/ A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ARKLAMISS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEING THE GENERAL THEME.
A clear sky across SW KS this afternoon under temporary high pressure ridge axis. Strong closed low well to our north in SE Montana at midday will strengthen further as it tracks into North Dokota through Wednesday morning. Associated cold front will track across SW KS tonight, reaching the far northern zones around 7 pm, Hays and Garden City by 10 pm, Dodge City around midnight, and clearing Barber county around sunrise. Cold front passage expected to be dry across the central and southern zones. Markedly cooler with a gusty N/NE wind continuing. Most locales topping out in the lower 70s.
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT MASSIVE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLD SHRA ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BH.
EXPECT A TRANSITION EASTWARD OF THE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AS THE WRAP AROUND FOLLOWS THE LOW MIGRATION. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE IMPACTS OF THE SYSTEM WINDING DOWN AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. SUNSHINE WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S BUT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL KEEP IT FROM FEELING MUCH WARMER.
AS THIS LOW PROPAGATES INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY. A MEAN LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FAVORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ON THE 12 UTC GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES.
/ISSUED 340 PM CDT FRI OCT 7 2016/ The cold front that entered the northwestern most part of the forecast area before midnight has moved into Central Texas this afternoon. North winds will decrease to 5 to 10 mph this evening and overnight lows will range from the upper 40s northwest to the lower 60s southeast. The upper level trough that has been moving across the Central Plains will continue to move off to the east tonight. Upper level ridging will build in across Texas from the south in the wake of this trough.
A longwave trof advances from the eastern Plains into the interior eastern states while Hurricane Matthew advances northward to just off the South Carolina coast. Lows tonight range from the lower 60s well inland to the mid/upper 60s closer to the coast.
1258 AM EDT Sat Oct 8 2016 A cold front will move across the area tonight. This feature will bring cooler air into the region for the weekend. Cold front will continue across the region overnight.
A cold front will sweep across the area tonight. Strong and very dry high pressure will then build into the area with VFR continuing, while winds generally remain light from the north. a strong dry cold front has pushed through the FTW/DFW metro-plex and is now closing in on Corsicana Texas.
1039 PM CDT FRI OCT 7 2016 As the cold front moved into the are tonight, lowered temperatures a few degrees and increased winds a bit quicker than previously forecast. Cold front is currently just south of San Antonio and pressing quickly southward.
710 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2016 Much cooler and drier air will move into the area tonight behind a cold front. Sunny skies are expected Saturday as high pressure builds into the area. Cold front trailing swwd from parent sw disturbance over wrn Ontario of little consequence going forward. guidance temps continue to appear underdone in light of vigorous newd building low level thermal ridge through mid week underneath developing high zonal flow aloft. Thus general preference again lies toward biasing with warmer max temps throughout. Gusty nw winds will grdly subside this eve as a wk sfc based inversion develops, but should pick up with diurnal heating Sat morning, then diminish late aftn as ridge builds in.
1141 PM CDT FRI OCT 7 2016 A moderately strong cold front is thru all of our region with gusty NW surface winds behind it. High pressure centered currently over central KS will build into our region tonight and then slowly exit late on Saturday. By 12z/Sat, the expected position of the RIDGE axis is expected to be favorable for ideal radiational cooling for areas N and W of STL metro and went with min temps below MOS, favoring values in the upper 30s to around 40. Elsewhere, MOS was more closely followed, with values in the lower to mid 40s. With maximum sunshine on Saturday for early October, such as it is, tended to favor the higher MOS values of upper 60s to near 70 for max temps.
1001 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2016 Low pressure over northern Ontario will move eastward into northern Quebec on Saturday. This will drag a cold front across the region tonight into early Saturday morning. High pressure will build in from the west over the weekend. Radar shows a few showers developing post cold front just west of the area so left the slight chance pop in there. A cold front will move across the region tonight into early Saturday morning. Cooler across the west where the cold front passes first. Cold front will be east of the region by mid morning with most of the showers moving eastward with it. However it will be breezy and much cooler than recent days.
Hurricane Center has Matthew progged to work along southeastern US coastline at least through Saturday then turns it toward the east and then southward as a much weaker system while it works down towards the Bahama's as Fujiwara effect kicks in with interaction taking place between Matthew and sister tropical cyclone Nicole to its east.
A few low lying sites have already slipped into the lower to mid 40s north. Elsewhere, expect lows mainly in the upper 30s to the lower 40s. above average or good with the one issue being with low dewpoints and if winds decouple becoming light then areas along and especially north of I-80 corridor could be a few degrees cooler with some isolated patchy frost not out of the question with any mins of 35 degrees or lower. Clear and cool with winds becoming light westerly by mid evening and possibly near calm toward dawn which may result in locally cooler mins and patchy frost for later shift to monitor.
A dry cold front was moving southeast across the Lower Ohio Valley this afternoon, marked by a sharp increase in northwest winds and a drop in temps.
609 PM CDT FRI OCT 7 2016 A moderately strong cold front is thru all of our region with gusty NW surface winds behind it. High pressure centered currently over central KS will build into our region tonight and then slowly exit late on Saturday. By 12z/Sat, the expected position of the RIDGE axis is expected to be favorable for ideal radiational cooling for areas N and W of STL metro and went with min temps below MOS, favoring values in the upper 30s to around 40. Elsewhere, MOS was more closely followed, with values in the lower to mid 40s. With maximum sunshine on Saturday for early October, such as it is, tended to favor the higher MOS values of upper 60s to near 70 for max temps.
Currently moisture is evident near the western US/Mexico Border and this area will get an infusion of return/Gulf moisture behind a cold front now working across south Texas. concurrent to the next upstream trough arriving to the Desert SW.
A long wave trough over southwest Ontario continues to move off to the east, while a broad ridge of high pressure covers much of the SW United States, including Colorado. Downslope flow, increasing SFC-500mb thickness and 700 mb temps, and mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to rebound further on Saturday with highs expected in the low 70s across the Plains and upper 40s to about 60 degrees in the high country.
Given the EDKMOS guidance, did lower temps to the low 30s for majority of area outside of LOW and northern Beltrami counties as well as issue a freeze warning. Due to the sub-freezing temps coupled with some wind and mostly cloudy skies, removed mention of frost for tonight. May see some light snow showers across the far west and southwest tomorrow morning but no accumulation as ground temperatures are still well above freezing. This period starts off with northwest flow aloft and an upper ridge to the west.
A warm front will shift through Saturday night, with the greatest forcing north of the border.
Gusty winds late this afternoon will drop off this evening but increase again Saturday morning and continue through the afternoon as the pressure gradient between the hurricane to the SE and a cold front moving in from the west brings strong North winds into the Tennessee Valley.
1057 PM MDT Fri Oct 7 2016 An upper low is spinning over southern Manitoba, with another one off the coast of British Columbia, and ridging in between. At the surface, a trough/stationary boundary stretches across the region. Upper ridge will build over the central CONUS on Saturday. Boundary will shift slightly northeastward, allowing warmer air to move into the area. Southerly winds will increase ahead of an approaching trough Saturday night, keeping lows mainly in the 40s.
I can't recall the last time a strong cold front moved through the region with NO POPs of any kind - thunder, shower, snow, whatever. Once the front is through, clear skies will prevail, along with low humidity (dew points in the 40s) and cooler temperatures.
High pressure aloft will maintain dry and mild conditions through Saturday.
646 PM CDT FRI OCT 7 2016 Cold front has exited the far southeast CWA this afternoon, but not before temperatures reached into the mid 80s around Lawrenceville. Temperatures dropped over the western CWA into the lower 60s, with 50s prevailing from about Bloomington-Jacksonville westward. After that, skies will remain clear through Saturday, as high pressure drifts into the mid- Mississippi Valley. A rather pleasant spell of weather in store for our area during this forecast period with the upper pattern transitioning into a zonal flow over the lower 48.
The main cold front has caught up with the earlier wind shift this afternoon, and is now located just south of a DRT-SAT line. The cold front continues to push into South-Central Texas this afternoon. At 2 PM the initial wind shift was located near the I-10 corridor with the actual cooler temperatures lagging a bit farther behind. Lows tonight will be much cooler, bottoming out in the middle 50s to middle 60s.
The cold front is plainly visible on radar moving steadily through the area this afternoon. Skies will likely be partly cloudy early and clear rapidly later tonight as high pressure moves in. Thus, expect clear skies and cooler conditions throughout the short term period.
1022 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2016 High pressure will bring dry conditions and mild temperatures through tonight.
I think this is the most sensible weather we've had here in Middle TN in a week or better! A cold front is pushing through the mid state this evening.
above average or good with the one issue being with low dewpoints and if winds decouple becoming light then areas along and especially north of I-80 corridor could be a few degrees cooler with some isolated patchy frost not out of the question with any mins of 35 degrees or lower. Clear and cool with winds becoming light westerly by mid evening and possibly near calm toward dawn which may result in locally cooler mins and patchy frost for later shift to monitor.
The cold front is plainly visible on radar moving steadily through the area this afternoon. A cold front over eastern Indiana will move rapidly east and high pressure over eastern Kansas and Missouri will build our way. Skies will likely be partly cloudy early and clear rapidly later tonight as high pressure moves in. Thus, expect clear skies and cooler conditions throughout the short term period.
Thus, expect clear skies and cooler conditions throughout the short term period.