Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A reinforcing cold front will slide south through the region this morning while in the process of washing out with the main cold air advection in the wake of the front focused over the Mid South and Tennessee Valley. In fact, lows in the mid 30s will likely be relatively common along and north of the Highway 82 corridor in Mississippi where some patches of late night frost will be possible.
202 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2017 The first Arctic airmass of the season is settling in thanks to a strong high pressure area.
Saturday, will be another cool day, though slightly warmer, with sun and a little bit more clouds around.
Dry cold front has rushed through the state early this morning, now bringing in much colder and drier air in its wake. The high pressure creating these winds will shift east northeastward Saturday, turning our winds more southerly by late day, and consequently allowing a quick warmup. Expect high temperatures roughly 10 degrees warmer than today, after what likely will be our coldest morning of the season so far.
149 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2017 High pressure through Saturday night.
/issued 910 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2017/ High pressure is settling in from the north as a cold front exits west central FL this morning. High pressure is settling behind a south bound cold front.
Visible satellite imagery shows well the overrunning cloud cover happening now, with lower layer drifting southwestward around the trough, with midlevel cloud cover between 5000 and 10000 feet drifting northward. Light rain and drizzle will continue tonight, as the trough gets drawn inland. Tomorrow the trough dissipates and ejects northward, opening the door for Gulf moisture to surge back to the north through the day. Enough instability will remain with the dissipating trough to bring a continued threat for showers through the day, but gradually ending from south to north.
1226 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2017 Arctic high pressure will build into the area today through Saturday night, bringing the first freeze of the season.
High pressure aloft will return late in the weekend. The now open trough that was once the closed low over the Pacific Northwest will nudge low-level cold advection across northern/central Utah beginning late tonight. This thermally induced low-level forcing will find somewhat better cold air aloft and dynamic support from the passing trough to generate scattered light precip across the northern third of the forecast area. Anticipating little if any precip reaching into central and southern Utah as the trough continues off to the east while the low-level cold advection continues to work south across the state.
247 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2017 A large area of high pressure over the Great Lakes region will move to the U.
Have a slight chance of freezing rain in there for a few spots if temps aloft warm faster than at the surface, but overall, rain/snow should be the primary weather types tomorrow. Trended toward the ECMWF temps, which are a nice compromise between the colder NAM and warmer GFS. May see a dusting or so of snow tomorrow, but the surface temps right around or a little above freezing will likely cause melting.
1111 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2017 Currently - A high pressure system sliding southeastwards into the eastern United States, along with a broad area of low pressure in the Caribbean Sea is tightening the local pressure gradient. Island cloud lines will be possible especially in the Lower Keys. Expect high temperatures in the mid 80s with dew points in the lower to mid 70s. Winds will continue to freshen this afternoon and tonight as a high pressure moves into the eastern United States.
However, the ridge will begin shifting ewd as we move into Saturday, and sly winds will return across the region.
Satellite images show upper low pushing inland over Oregon this morning with band of showers mainly across central/southern Washington. Temperatures in locations along the east slopes of Washington Cascades are just at freezing so a mix of rain/snow and some patchy freezing rain is possible through the next couple of hours and then change to rain and snow through the rest of the day. Warmer air has spread in across Oregon with snow levels rising and should be 4500-5000 feet as precipitation moves through this afternoon.
207 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2017 This afternoon has been rather brisk as a strong 1040mb high over the Great Lakes has been pumping cold, Canadian air into the lower Ohio Valley. Surface obs reveal temperatures in the low to mid 40s across south central KY, while southern IN and northern KY are in the upper 30s to low 40s. Upper level flow becomes quasi-zonal tomorrow, and we'll see some warmer air advect in from the west.
Showery conditions will continue today as an upper trough pivots into the forecast area. Low pressure is moving inland with an associated frontal band of light to moderate precipitation oriented southwest to northeast across the far northern California coast across western Siskiyou County to the Cascades and northern Klamath County. As it does so, the next disturbance (a warm front) will reach the coast this afternoon then lift north out of the area this evening. The upper level pattern will remain progressive but a ridge will briefly build across the west late tonight into Saturday. But, clouds will fill back in early in the evening ahead of a cold front. The ridge will build over the Rockies Saturday night and slow down the advance of the front.
High pressure moves off to the east allowing winds to gradually veer to an onshore direction by Saturday.
220 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2017 Quiet and seasonably mild wx conditions prevail across the cntrl TN Valley this Fri afternoon, as a dry reinforcing cold front continues to makes its way swd across the mid of MS/AL. Generally quiet wx should continue into the weekend period, as a large dome of high pressure out of the nrn/mid Plains builds ewd into the Great Lakes/OH Valley regions. This should have winds veering more to the E/SE near 10-15 MPH during the day Sat and allow for overall temps to be slightly warmer than the past couple of days.
The fog and low clouds increase tonight but will move east Saturday allowing for greater insolation and warmer temperatures.
Aloft - A low over Quebec with troughing down across the eastern seaboard to the Bahamas shifts northeastward. A ridge builds over Mexico and extends eastward to FL. The cold front which slipped through central FL this morning is now sagging across south FL and weakening. Northerly becoming north-northeasterly 1000-700MB will bring in sufficient dry air to erode away the low clouds by late afternoon. The low temperatures tonight will be on the warm side of normal but lower that the minimum temperatures experienced this morning. The high pressure to the north will keep surface winds northeasterly and somewhat robust at times. Models in fair agreement with general upper troughing over the Eastern U.
High pressure firmly in place with VFR conditions expected to prevail across the flying area through the forecast period. Primarily zonal flow aloft will resume through the near term as an upper high pressure ridge becomes reestablished across the Gulf of Mexico. The strong high pressure will maintain the north to northeast winds, reinforcing the very cool temperatures across the region, and keep the area dry.
351 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2017 Surface analysis this afternoon shows the center of high pressure over the Great Lakes while a low pressure center is getting organized over southern Saskatchewan province, including a front sagging south over eastern MT/WY. Aloft, a small ridge axis over the MN/WI border is continuing to shift east while a compact upper level low atop the aforementioned surface feature rotates eastward. Fairly deep moisture in advance of the low and on the backside of the ridge has kept cloud cover in place all day and the clouds will stay tonight through much of tomorrow as the front to the west slowly approaches.
1201 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2017 High pressure will continue to build into the Mid-South today behind the reinforcing cold front that moved through overnight into this morning. A reinforcing cold front has pushed through the region. though some of north Mississippi may creep into the low 60s. A weak broad midlevel ridge will shift east as well. Surface winds will shift Southerly Saturday resulting in warmer conditions. After a cold morning featuring temperatures in the low to middle 30s highs Saturday will soar around 25 degrees resulting in highs upper 50s to middle 60s.
Cold high pressure at the surface was centered over the Great Lakes with almost zonal flow across the country.
/issued 305 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2017/ The forecast area will remain under zonal flow through the upcoming week as upper level high pressure will remain centered over northern Mexico and adjacent eastern Pacific waters while the southern jet stream will be quasi-stationary across the middle tier of the CONUS. With a bit stronger winds veered toward southwest ahead of a cold front moving southward through the central High Plains temperatures will spike into the 70s areawide Saturday afternoon. Despite the low level moisture in place ahead of the front mid levels will be warm and dry with precipitation chances limited.
/Today through Tonight/ High pressure at the surface slips east into the Great Lakes today allowing for return flow across Iowa. The lower, thicker cloud deck will keep temps from falling too much and they will likely remain steady or slowing rise overnight.
/issued 252 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2017/ Cool morning across the Four State Region with surface ridging located just west of our region. As we go through the day, this ridge axis will move across our region which should result in a descent warmup.
and snowfall at the highest elevations. /Issued 209 AM PST Fri Nov 10 2017/ A quick moving low pressure system will provide breezy winds today with a chance for light rain and high elevation snowfall mainly north of Interstate 80.
The coldest night of the season will be in store as readings Saturday morning bottom out in the mid 20s on ridges and upper teens to lower 20s in valleys. Warming temperatures will take shape for the beginning of the weekend as high pressure shifts across the east coast and southwest flow establishes itself aloft.
Temperatures and dew points are a couple degrees warmer than forecast over eastern areas otherwise a cold morning with the mercury mostly in the 30s and 40s at late morning. As winds become light tonight lows will drop below freezing again over northern and central sections. Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 37 59 39 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 32 56 38 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 53 33 56 38 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 25 55 32 / 0 0 0 0.
1228 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2017 A strong cold front will cross the area early this morning. High pressure will then build across the region through the weekend. The cold front will cross the forecast area between now and 8-9 am. The cold front will have isolated thunderstorms with the very cold air aloft, gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range, and a rapid changeover to snow. Strong low pressure will cross Labrador Saturday while high pressure builds toward the region. However, with building high pressure and the relaxing pressure gradient, winds will begin to decrease later in the afternoon.
A subtle reinforcement of surface ridging should maintain near steady sky conditions into the early evening. Upper air analysis last evening showed a low amplitude trough and ridge pattern over the southern part of the country with west- northwesterly flow over Texas. At the surface, high pressure was centered over Northeastern Texas and the pressure gradient was weak. The low level flow will be from the east to southeast today and tonight. Saturday the low level flow will become more southeasterly and this will begin to bring Gulf moisture back into the region.
247 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2017 Arctic high pressure will build into the area through Saturday night, bringing the first freeze of the season.
While it will remain windy over the ridges and some of the wind will mix down during the day, these strong gusts will likely diminish as the stable layer around 600 mb weakens. Dropped the lows a little. A strong zonal flow aloft will be over Colorado through much of the period with some embedded mid level troughs axis' passing across the state.
1258 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2017 High pressure will bring an unseasonably cold airmass to the region today and tonight.
An upper level low pressure trough will be moving across NE MT today. We will be watching the winds, not sure how much of the higher winds at 850mb will mix down today. Main concern will be how much mixing with the cold advection late this afternoon and evening behind the cold front. Low will move across southern Saskatchewan today pulling warm front across eastern Montana. Westerly downslope flow and mixing with the front should help push the temperatures above the freezing mark for most of the area today. Canadian high pressure slides back into the region behind the Alberta low tonight.
251 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2017 Latest surface analysis showed a 1021mb low over north Georgia with a cold front extending west to north Mississippi to the Central Plains. The main high pressure of 1037mb was located over Upper Michigan. This high was associated a deep upper level low north of Maine. A trough axis was located off the Carolina coast to the central Gulf of Mexico. The associated cold front will push southeast and through the forecast area today. The old trough axis off of carolina coast to central gulf will create a weak inverted trough. This trough will sweep west and halt over the coastal waters, Mississippi coast and land areas southeast of New Orleans tonight through Saturday, albeit rainfall amounts will be light.
Temperatures hovering near freezing for most of the overnight will allow wet paved surfaces to ice up a bit (particularly walks and driveways).
A weak low pressure circulation is tracking into southwestern WA this morning. The low pressure circulation will track over the Spokane Area by the evening, but also fill and weaken as it does so. Main changes to the forecast were to slow the timing of the precip up across the Highway 2 corridor and to remove precip chances near the Canadian border as it doesn't look like it will make up that far north. More fog is expected to develop overnight as this low exits. The low pressure system producing the light precip will begin to exit late this evening with mid level clouds clearing west to east.
Main upper low is pushing onto the Oregon coast this morning. A strong upper level low is moving onto the PacNW coast this morning, and will spread showers to most of the area today and tonight. As the upper level low exits to the east late tonight, it will take most of the showers with it. Brief ridging aloft tomorrow will allow for a few degrees of warming over most of the area. A cold front will move through tonight, associated with the first upper level low.
402 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2017 The first Arctic airmass of the season is settling in thanks to a strong high pressure area.
Eastern mountains and plains will likely see a fairly large temperature gradient by afternoon, as eastern mountain slopes along and west of I-25 see warmer air mix to the surface under increasing flow aloft, while weak ely flow up the Arkansas Valley keeps relatively cool air in place from Pueblo eastward to the KS border. Farther west, max temps over the mountains and interior valleys will climb several degf from yesterday as warmer air spreads eastward across the region. Mountains and interior valleys will be seasonably cold, with some gusty west winds at times over higher peaks and exposed ridges. The first one will cross the northern Rockies on Saturday, pushing a weak cold front south across Colorado Saturday afternoon and evening.
113 PM MST Fri Nov 10 2017 Water vapor shows upper trof over the Pac NW with sw/w flow over the Northern Plains. At the surface, lee trof has advanced eastward into the far western Dakotas ushering warmer air into the region. Upper trof currently over the Pac NW will quickly advance into the Northern Plains on Saturday. Moisture will be scant, but a few rain/snow showers possible with the trof.
An upper level trough positioned over the northeast will continue to lift northeastward through the afternoon, with mostly zonal flow remaining in place aloft of our forecast area. At the lower levels, a ridge of high pressure is situated to our northwest, over the Mississippi Valley. This ridge will also shift eastward through the day, shifting our light northeasterly winds to easterly winds. Expect temperatures to warm up now that the clouds are dissipating, with max temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s- slightly below normal for this time of year thanks to yesterday's cold front passage.
1118 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2017 Dry Canadian high pressure will build across the region through Saturday.
403 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2017 High pressure will keep tongiht dry and cold with lows in the upper teens to lower 20s. Saturday will be slightly warmer with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s, along with a little more cloud cover.
232 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2017 Weak ridging aloft is over the region with northwest flow aloft. Temperatures today will be similar to yesterday with cooler conditions across the eastern CWA due to cloud cover lingering across this area. Zonal flow will be over the region on Saturday as a trough moves over the Northern Plains flattening the upper ridge.
1205 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2017 Main impactful weather concerns in the short-term are on chances for a light wintry mix of rain/freezing rain/snow/and brief sleet late Friday night into Saturday. Cold high pressure will slide east of the region this afternoon into tonight. This means any precipitation that would fall over these areas would probably be light freezing rain. Will have to keep a very close eye on the potential for light freezing rain after midnight. Forecast soundings suggest a loss of ice aloft and this would cause the light snow to switch over to light freezing rain or drizzle at times.
219 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2017 High pressure through Saturday night.
For tonight, an upper trough over western WY is progged to move eastward and brush across the region, before exiting into NE by 18z Tuesday. The strongest storm late this afternoon and evening will occur along and south of a cold front that is progged to push north to south across the cwa after 00Z. Due to the high water content locally heavy rainfall also likely along with potential flooding toward NE and KS this evening. Wednesday afternoon, in spite of the mid level subsidence behind the trough, there should be enough moisture coupled with afternoon heating to initiate another around of showers and thunderstorms. By Wednesday evening the upper trough will have moved east over Kansas. PW values will increase against the foothills with ESE flow against the higher terrain.
241 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 High pressure brings drier weather on Wednesday but unsettled pattern returns to end the week with another cold front. High pressure pushes down this evening and will keep us mostly dry through Wednesday.
248 PM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017 As of 19z this afternoon, the axis of a 500 mb trough is analyzed just west of the Green River valley in central Utah. This trough axis will pivot eastward through the remainder of the day, crossing the CO/UT border by 0z and exiting the forecast area east of the Continental Divide after 06z tonight. Low level dry air with notably lower PWAT values continue to round the base of this trough and advect into the southern half of Utah and Colorado. partially aided by positive vorticity advection on the leading side of the trough axis. Given the dry air and light flow aloft, thunderstorm chances in the higher terrain will be quite low, and valley locations will see a dry, mostly sunny afternoon with temperatures running right around seasonal averages.
High pressure aloft strengthens over the weekend for continuing dry weather. The region will remain in between two upper level low pressure systems - one dropping south from the Gulf of Alaska and a cut-off low off California.
On Wednesday the heat index values will peak a degree or two warmer in many areas than today, potentially resulting in the issuance of a Heat Advisory.
652 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 Aviation High pressure will result in dry weather tonight into Wednesday evening.
The strengthening ridge over FL/GA will start to build west Wed night and should move directly overhead Thu. With the ridge still off to the east, ample moisture to tap into, and maybe even some weak support from a s/w moving northeast through TX we will see scattered to numerous storms again tomorrow. Convection should quickly come to an end as we head into the evening hours as the ridge really begins to shift towards us.
Deep layer moisture will be on the increase ahead of the trough overnight with some showers/storms possible later on overnight, especially west of the Mississippi, with increasing isentropic upglide/warm advection ahead of a warm front.
This backing is in response to a long wave trough moving into the western CONUS. Precipitation chances on Wednesday do look better than before with a cold front sliding somewhere into the region. The upper level ridge over the southeastern US will be the source of uncertainty in convection chances for the rest of the week. This ridge will begin to move west resulting in rising heights which will act to suppress convective development.
Expect another day of warmer than normal temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 90s, and lows tonight in the mid 70s.
However, next system pushes cold front into Kansas late tonight and may push some showers/storms into southeastern Kansas and western Missouri late tonight in broad warm advection zone. Temperatures will be on the uptick once again today with highs in the mid to upper 80s and heat index readings in the lower to middle 90s, and perhaps upper 90s in areas west of Interstate 49.
One of the stronger waves passes overhead tomorrow and tomorrow night, bringing the highest rain chances to the area, along with a risk of additional severe storms.
/issued 150 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017/ Today have an upper ridge centered over FL with a broad trough over the western US.
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours as high pressure suppresses cloud cover and precipitation chances. /issued 409 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): Mid-level high pressure anchored over the northern Gulf combined with very dry air above 850mb will lead to another hot and dry day across Deep South Texas.
A series of short wave troughs that have been moving through the base of the main upper trough over the intermountain region begin lifting out east of the Rockies today and across the Central High Plains over the Plains states from tonight through Wednesday evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue across the area through the day on Wednesday as the short wave troughs aloft continue to lift across the region with some stabilization of the atmosphere Wednesday night in the wake of the exiting upper short wave trough. The remainder of the upper trough over the western U.
Today will be dry during the day as a broad area of high pressure across the Upper Great Lakes region shifts eastward and a warmer airmass advects into the region.
Temps so far have topped out in the lower 90s with temps in the 80s over parts of northeast FL where precip had got off to early start. Low to mid level ridge will be building into the area from the south and southwest per latest guidance. Lows muggy in the lower to mid 70s. Low to mid level ridge across the ern Gulf of Mexico remaining nearly stationary or drifts westward. Warm conditions aloft near -5C and relatively low DCAPE suggest heavy rain and frequent lightning may be the highest threat.
Factor in dewpoints in the lower 70s and heat index values today will rise into the low to mid 90s. However, despite morning storms and cloud cover, models suggest that conditions clear in the afternoon and the atmosphere recovering as the aforementioned cold front moves into the western CWA.