Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Zonal flow persists over the area through Sunday as upper level ridging over the southern Gulf of Mexico slowly builds north towards the area. Tonight is cold once again with lows in the lower to middle 30's for most, with upper 30's to near 40 along the immediate coast. We are a little warmer tomorrow, with highs generally making it into the middle 60's and perhaps a few upper 60's over inland areas of southeast MS and southwest AL.
The front and associated precip have moved into south FL, as clouds are diminishing over the Treasure Coast with northerly winds advecting drier/cooler air down the peninsula. Overnight lows in the upper 40s west of I-4, and in the low to mid 50s elsewhere, except low 60s in Coastal Martin County. High pressure builds across the Southeast U. Highs reach the low to mid 70s, and possibly upper 70s near the Kissimmee River.
541 PM MST Sat Feb 19 2022 We have a beautiful weekend with warmer temperatures on tap.
Winds will decrease rapidly after sunset and remain on the light side ahead of an approaching cold front.
Surface analysis this afternoon places a weak and dry cold front over Northern Alabama/Mississippi into Arkansas and into Oklahoma. Sunny skies prevail across the Mid-South this afternoon despite the weak front with temperatures as of 2 PM CST ranging from the middle 40s near the MO/KY border to the lower to middle 50s along and south of I-40. High pressure will bring precipitation free weather to the Mid- South for tonight and Sunday. Highs on Sunday will be in the lower to middle 60s. Short term models indicate a warm front will develop near the Gulf Coast and spread north across the Mid-South on Monday with rain chances returning as early as late Monday night over portions of North Mississippi.
300 AM CST Sun Feb 20 2022 Clear skies and south winds of 15 to 25 MPH with gusts mainly between 20 and 35 MPH were seen early this morning as the area was between high pressure to the southeast and a trough of low pressure to the northwest. A cold front will drop southward into the area stalling out west-to-east just south of I-80. I think it could be even more sharp, as any northeast wind could hold temperatures just above freezing in the extreme north through the afternoon.
While these winds will likely remain decoupled from the lower elevations in the CWA, concerned that we could tap into that layer along the Buffalo Ridge, with southwest direction favoring wind enhancement in the downslope areas east of the Ridge. This will give us a good start at our warmer temperatures on Sunday, though potential warming in northern parts of the area will still ultimately depend on timing of an approaching cold front. Expect precipitation to slowly expand south-southeastward through the day Monday, as a subtle mid-level wave ejects out of a broader trough digging into the western CONUS.
A drier and cooler airmass will filter into the area in the wake of the FROPA, with cold air advection from the northeast, then gradually veering to the east through Monday.
/issued 652 PM EST Sat Feb 19 2022/ High pressure center moving from the S Great Lakes region to the Mid-Atlantic tonight has pushed a much drier airmass into the area with a few cirrus clouds for pleasantly cool evening and night. Mostly clear conditions should prevail overnight once the clouds clear and then continue through the weekend as dry high pressure builds into the area. High pressure then continues to ridge across the state and keep conditions dry through the week as moisture increases and temperatures warm into the upper 80s inland. Winds then remain AOB 15kts through the rest of the period with high pressure ridging across the waters from the Atlantic.
Conditions will become warmer today as high pressure begins to build more towards the east and northeast. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the 40s and 50s, with warmer temperatures occuring further to the south.
Low temperatures tonight are forecast to be much warmer than last night due to the influx in moisture, ranging from the mid 40s to low 50s across the region.
Warm Sunday and Monday ahead of a cold front 3. Minimal chance for very light precipitation - possibly freezing - overnight Monday.
The stronger winds will result in warmer low temperatures tonight in the foothills. The strongest winds will retreat to the higher mountain locations on Sunday morning with passage of the stronger subsidence and diminishing mountain level inversion. Temperatures will be slightly warmer on Sunday with a slight rise in 700mb temperatures.
MVFR CIGS should expand northward as the warm front moves into the area and then slows. Strong WAA cranks up overnight Sunday and the warm front should then lifts northward with a very juicy LL environment across SETX. In addition warm front moving slowly northwest toward Brownsville and pressures will begin falling there overnight with warm front headed toward SETX Sunday afternoon. Warmer and more humid will be the prevailing conditions in the afternoon. Some patchy light drizzle will be possible late afternoon/evening with a few spotty light showers as the warm front slows.
Satellite pics showing a band of high cloud over the area this evening which is associated with the leading edge of an upper trough. Showers will develop towards morning across mountains of Baker county and west-central Idaho as the trough moves into the Pac NW.
VFR prevails through the period as a cold front clears the area. A cold front across northern portions of the region will continue to move down the peninsula throughout the day. Overnight lows across the region will be in the low 50s western portions of Lake Okeechobee, upper 50s and low 60s over the interior and Gulf coast, with mid to upper 60s for the east coast metro. High pressure builds behind the frontal passage with winds veering becoming northeasterly and easterly throughout the day on Sunday. Temperatures will be a little cooler than the past few days with highs in the mid-upper 70s along the east coast with the breeze off the water.
342 AM EST Sun Feb 20 2022 Windy conditions will develop by mid morning as much warmer air returns from the southwest.
1241 AM EST Sun Feb 20 2022 Skies will trend clear tonight as the colder air gradually erodes through Sunday, with much warmer air building into the region for early this upcoming week.
This will lead to very favorable rad cooling potential, especially for areas in E MS, where lows will fall to below freezing, while the low- mid 30s to the W-SW. In the wake of a cold front earlier in the week, sfc WNW flow will continue to move into the region, which will keep dry conditions in the short term forecast. Tonight, a high pressure will build from the west and center over MS, which will allow for quiet conditions to continue into the overnight. Tomorrow, the high pressure will begin to shift to the east and restore southerly flow into the region throughout the day. /AJ/ A trough digs in over the desert southwest, setting up southwesterly flow aloft over the region.
A weak surface trof will move into central Kansas Sunday with stronger southerly winds along/east of the Kansas turnpike. As upper troughing develops over the western conus on Monday, and Arctic cold front will begin to ooze southward across the northern Plains. While character of the moistening within the low and mid-levels is somewhat suspect, we could see some light precip develop along or just behind the front across the Flint Hills and southeast Kansas where thermal profiles could support either rain/drizzle or perhaps a period of freezing precip.
North to northeast winds will veer quickly onshore and increase by the late morning as high pressure over the Carolinas drifts over the Atlantic. First and only day this week that high temps will remain below the 80 degree mark area wide, topping out in the low to mid 70s. Near normal lows over the interior in the mid 50s warming to the low to mid 60s towards the coast.
142 AM EST Sun Feb 20 2022 High pressure will build south of the region today, then move off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight into Monday night. This greatly reduces chances for any freezing pcpn. With the warm front north of the area and a quick moving low, generally less than an inch of rain is likely. The NBM is dry Wed aftn and Wed ngt, but some sct shwrs or shsn may be possible with a cold front. High pressure builds into the terminals overnight, and off the mid Atlantic coast during Sunday. The high drifts east Sunday night.
1248 AM EST Sun Feb 20 2022 High pressure should support a dry and warmer today. Widespread rain chances should return overnight Monday with low pressure. Clear sky and warm advection from an approaching trough, will promote temperatures returning to average across the region. Dry, quiet weather will continue tonight into Monday with lingering high pressure. Model consensus depicts two subsequent low pressure systems moving across the Upper Ohio Valley this upcoming week. Gusty conditions (15-20kts) during the day and overnight LLWS are likely as a trough advances into the Great Lake region.
113 AM EST Sun Feb 20 2022 High pressure remains in control through Sunday with seasonably cooler temperatures, drier air and clear skies. Moisture will also increase as high pressure shifts offshore leading to increased cloud cover and at least a slight chance of rain for much of the week. High pressure currently centered over the Ohio River Valley and moving east, building into the region. A dry cold front as moved south of the area and accompanied by a northerly wind shift with a short increase in wind gusts. Cooler and drier air will enter the area behind it.
101 AM EST Sun Feb 20 2022 High pressure tonight into Monday with a warming trend starting Sunday.
225 AM EST Sun Feb 20 2022 High pressure remains in control again today with seasonably cooler temperatures, drier air and clear skies. Moisture will also increase as high pressure shifts offshore leading to increased cloud cover and at least a slight chance of rain for much of the week. Early this morning: High pressure currently centered over the Ohio River Valley and moving east, building into the region. A dry cold front as moved south of the area and accompanied by a northerly wind shift with a short increase in wind gusts. Cooler and drier air will enter the area behind it.
241 AM MST Sun Feb 20 2022 An arctic cold front crosses the region today from north to south, with temperatures steadily falling and with widespread accumulating snow developing.
331 AM CST Sun Feb 20 2022 Windy and much warmer conditions will be observed across central Illinois today. Afternoon high temperatures will soar into the lower to middle 50s along and south of the I-70 corridor. 09z/3am surface analysis shows a sprawling ridge of high pressure extending from Quebec to the Gulf Coast. while low pressure develops over the Northern Plains.
A dry day to end the weekend as high pressure is over the area. There will be high clouds work into the sw this afternoon as a warm front begins to lift northward. As we work through the evening, moisture will return behind a warm front that will lift northward. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 30s in the northeast, north of the warm front to 40s elsewhere. Areas in the southeast will be limited with rain chances, thus temperatures may be 8 to 10 degrees warmer that areas north of I-85.
Winter weather looks to return to the state late today through Monday as a low pressure trough and cold front moves through the region. Much cooler temperatures with highs in the 30s and 40s are expected Monday with even colder temperatures by midweek with waning precipitation chances. Today through Monday night Well above normal temperatures and an increase in west winds and cloud cover are expected today as a low pressure drops into the region from the northwest. Weather will quickly become more active later today and especially tonight as a cold front moves through northern Nevada. The heaviest snow will be along the frontal zone across central Nevada Monday morning where up to 2 inches is expected in valleys with higher amounts across the Great Basin National Park where 5-7 inches are possible along the highest ranges through Monday night.
High pressure building into the region will maintain dry and cooler conditions. Afternoon temps reach the low 70s along the coast and mid 70s inland.
537 AM CST Sun Feb 20 2022 High pressure which has dominated the region over the past few days will continue to move to the east through the period.
628 AM EST Sun Feb 20 2022 Windy conditions will develop by mid morning as much warmer air returns from the southwest.
The temperature forecast is warmer than the RAP model and uses the 50 percent NBM which is very close to the guidance blend. An arctic cold front has dropped into ND this morning and will continue moving south today and tonight.
Both today and Monday will be quite mild ahead of the next major cold front. There may be a brief period of 10 to 15 mph north wind behind this trough axis, however by afternoon, much of the southwest Kansas region will see winds 8 mph or less.
Clear skies and south winds of 15 to 25 MPH with gusts mainly between 20 and 35 MPH were seen early this morning as the area was between high pressure to the southeast and a trough of low pressure to the northwest. A cold front will drop southward into the area stalling out west-to-east just south of I-80. I think it could be even more sharp, as any northeast wind could hold temperatures just above freezing in the extreme north through the afternoon.
422 AM EST Sun Feb 20 2022 After a cold start this morning, this afternoon will be much warmer under sunny skies.
835 AM EST Sun Feb 20 2022 High pressure continues to build behind the FROPA yesterday. A drier and cooler airmass will filter into the area in the wake of the FROPA, with cold air advection from the northeast, then gradually veering to the east through Monday.
There is a small chance that there will be a little freezing drizzle before the deeper moisture moves into the area, but that is a very small area in the far northeast.
Precipitation will work from the northwest to southeast as an upper level trough deepens and intensifies across southeast Idaho. After this initial area of low pressure passes through by 12Z/5:00AM Monday, a secondary area of low pressure deepens further west out towards eastern Oregon and continues to amplify precipitation mostly across the Central Mountains and Eastern Highlands upslope regions, along with scattered snow showers continuing elsewhere. 48 hour snowfall totals remain sub-advisory with a T-2" across the Snake Plain and eastern Magic Valley, 1-4" for our mountain valleys, and 3-8"+ above 6,500ft in the higher terrain and at mountain pass level. As the upper level trough continues to deepen across the Great Basin headed into Nevada and northern California, precipitation will continue across our higher elevation zones for Monday night remaining scattered along with much colder temperatures settling in for midweek.
An arctic cold front crosses the region today from north to south, with temperatures steadily falling and with widespread accumulating snow developing.
SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): Shallow 500 mb ridging will remain in position over the Gulf of Mex while a Baja Cali closed low opens up and moves east into the Desert SW Sun and Mon. IR satl imagery and surface obs indicates that there is a pretty large mid and high level moisture field advecting from the SW to the NE over the top of the Gulf of Mex ridge axis. As this moisture advects northwards, it will likely increase the potential for some showers activity mainly near the lower TX coast and offshore through today and Mon. The surface ridging over the SE States will continue shifting eastwards through Mon with the PGF strengthening steadily.
One notable thing will be the drop in temperatures as the cold front dips south through the CWA today.
Overnight temperatures will also be warmer with mid to upper 40s expected. Strong WWA, PWAT values still in the 99% of climatology, a LLJ expected to strengthen, as well as CAPE values around 700-1000 J/kg range and moderate shear coupled with a cold front moving in from the northwest severe weather is now on the table.
320 AM PST Sun Feb 20 2022 Dry and mild weather today, then cooler and more unsettled weather returns beginning Monday. High clouds ahead of the approaching trough have moved south and now cover the northern half of the forecast area. Models remain pretty consistent with the trough dropping south into NorCal early this week bringing a return of cooler temps and unsettled weather.
416 AM EST Sun Feb 20 2022 A weakening cold front is sliding south through the Florida Keys at this time, with scattered showers moving across parts of the Upper Keys and the adjacent coastal waters. Temperatures along the island chain are mostly in the lower 70s, with dewpoints in the upper 60s, and winds on land have increased during the past hour from the NNE to 15 to 20 mph. Surface analysis shows the aforementioned cold front extending eastward across the northern Bahamas into the western Atlantic, with high pressure centered over Virginia and dominating the eastern CONUS. 1 inches) and deep ridging builds overhead. The persistent deep ridging in our area will prevent any fronts from approaching, and will provide above normal temps through the week.
* Strong cold front is expected Monday night, and could lead to a few thunderstorms.
407 AM CST Sun Feb 20 2022 A Clipper continues to race southeast across eastern North Dakota with a cold front extending to its west. This front is the focus of widespread light to moderate snow across the northern third of the state, matching up well with the low level frontogenesis fields plotted on the latest SPC mesoanalysis. The highest amounts are expected to be close to the International Border where the Winter Weather Advisory is in effect. As the cold front moves through, most will see their highs this morning with temperatures falling through the day as strong cold air advection wins out over the traditional diurnal trends.
The other potential impact will be flash freezes on area roads in the Flathead valley when temperatures drop quickly to below freezing.
550 AM CST Sun Feb 20 2022 Windy and much warmer conditions will be observed across central Illinois today. Afternoon high temperatures will soar into the lower to middle 50s along and south of the I-70 corridor. 09z/3am surface analysis shows a sprawling ridge of high pressure extending from Quebec to the Gulf Coast. while low pressure develops over the Northern Plains.
One last day of quiet and warm weather can be expected today before cooler and unsettled weather moves in for much of the upcoming week as low pressure drops into the western states from Canada.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 39 62 53 71 56 / 0 40 60 50 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 34 65 52 70 55 / 0 10 60 60 100 Oak Ridge, TN 35 65 52 68 53 / 0 10 70 60 100 Tri Cities Airport, TN 31 64 48 68 54 / 0 0 60 60 90.
257 PM CST Sun Feb 20 2022 Clouds will gradually be on the increase, with return southerly flow advecting warmer and higher dew point air into the region.
Early afternoon satellite imagery was showing a broad upper trough positioned over the NW states with a discontinuous surface frontal boundary extending from near West Yellowstone WSW to Boise. Much colder arctic air will stack up along the Montana divide tonight and Monday as the upper low shifts a little further SE over Boise. The position of the upper low will hold the cold air at bay along the divide through the day Monday while promoting instability snow showers favoring the higher terrain in the afternoon.
Temperatures are on track for above average highs in the 70s away from the cooler waters of the gulf coast.
Showers are developing along and ahead of a cold front that is situated in east-central Oregon.
(This evening through Monday) Fairly rapid surface lee trough development through the day will increase south/southwest wind over much of OK. The RFD will remain in place for the afternoon for much of western and central OK outside of the northwest corner where the MSLP gradient will be lower near the trough axis.
207 PM EST Sun Feb 20 2022 High pressure will slide offshore tonight into Monday. High pressure will slide offshore tonight with light ely to calm winds and mainly clear skies. High pressure will be centered offshore while continuing to ridge into the area. Dry and increasingly warmer weather will build across Eastern North Carolina early to mid week. Rain chances will increase by the end of the week, with cooler weather for the first half of the upcoming weekend.
For the rest of the afternoon, the building upper ridge will bring a return of seasonably warm temperatures, topping out in the upper 60s to around 70 well inland, mid 60s along the coast. Tonight, with best deep layer southwest to southerly flow being over the Lower Mississippi River and nearby, western portions of the forecast area will see greater moisture return overnight, along greater cloud cover and warmer overnight temperatures. With the better coverage of rain northwest in the forecast area, cooler temperatures are expected. With warmer Gulf flow over cooler near-shore waters along the Mississippi and Alabama Gulf coasts, conditions are beginning to set up for sea-fog returning.
Above to well above normal warm temps this afternoon and Monday ahead of an incoming cold front. Minimal chance remains for very light precipitation - possibly freezing - overnight Monday.
256 PM CST Sun Feb 20 2022 Main challenge remains timing of the Arctic cold front Monday afternoon and then precip chances/type just behind the frontal passage Monday night. While character of the moistening within the low and mid-levels does not appear coherently deep, there is support for some very light precip developing just behind the front across the Flint Hills and southeast Kansas where thermal profiles could support either rain/drizzle or perhaps a period of freezing/frozen precip.
High pressure centered over the Carolinas this afternoon will slowly move to the east Tonight through Monday. A weak inverted trough will be located along the SE GA coast Tonight into Monday. Patchy fog is expected to develop along the Atlantic coast Tonight as moist air moves over the relatively cooler coastal waters. In addition, scattered clouds are expected over eastern half of area due to the weak trough. The inverted trough will weaken Monday, as the high moves further to the east northeast.
Cooler, unsettled weather can be expected for much of the week as low pressure over Canada drops into the western states.
206 PM EST Sun Feb 20 2022 Windy conditions are expected this afternoon as much warmer air returns from the southwest.
1122 AM CST Sun Feb 20 2022 Windy and much warmer conditions will be observed across central Illinois today. Afternoon high temperatures will soar into the lower to middle 50s along and south of the I-70 corridor. 09z/3am surface analysis shows a sprawling ridge of high pressure extending from Quebec to the Gulf Coast. while low pressure develops over the Northern Plains.
(This evening through Monday) It will be more mild tonight, with lows in the lower to mid 50s, as a lee trough brings occasionally gusty south winds and high clouds increase with approach of an upper level disturbance. Monday afternoon, temperatures warm up to highs in the lower to mid 80s Monday.
High pressure continues to build behind the FROPA yesterday. A drier and cooler airmass will filter into the area in the wake of the FROPA, with cold air advection from the northeast, then gradually veering to the east through Monday.