Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1100 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022 19z surface analysis had weak high pressure over the upper Midwest and lee trough from central MT into central CO. Water vapour matinee had upper ridge over TX, expanding into the northern plains. Upper low spins just west of northern CA. Upper ridge the main short term weather maker. Tonight/Monday, upper/thermal ridge builds into the CWA as a warm front shifts east across the CWA Monday. Behind warm front, southwest/west downslope flow picks up.
Seasonable strong upper trough will sweep across Ontario, upstate New York and Quebec today. Northwest flow in the wake of the trough and overtop the dome of high pressure over the southern Plains will result in the cold front dropping south across central Indiana. The southern Plains high pressure will cause the western part of the front to stall and still be nearby, so lows over southwestern sections are only expected to bottom out in the upper 60s.
The weather will be pleasant much of today as the Northern Rockies sits in between a couple of weather systems, a closed low off the California coast and another weather disturbance approaching from Alberta, Canada, both of which will impact the NR this week. Nevertheless expect an increase in northeast winds, wet, moist conditions and cooler temperatures.
Upper level high pressure builds over the southern plains causing heights to rise over Nebraska over the two days.
720 AM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022 Aviation - Showers and a few storms early this morning - Elevated convection will continue to develop in the vicinity of the I-94 corridor early this morning with moderate instability in place just ahead of the cold front. Fair wx is forecast for the rest of the day today as high pressure builds in behind the front and northwest winds slowly advect a drier airmass into our area.
A couple clusters of convection bubbled up in the Straits of Florida with one intruding upon the nearshore waters of the Lower Keys. Although the mid to upper level trough positioned over Florida will start to slide west as the week progresses, upper level support will stick around for the next couple of days. From synopsis, light to gentle easterly breezes will prevail into Tuesday due to a broad trough over Florida.
1025 AM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022 Dry weather continues into midweek as a dome of high pressure expands across the Southeast, allowing temps to warm well above normal.
519 AM MDT Mon Sep 19 2022 Current surface map places warm front across northwest South Dakota with robust warm advection across the forecast area. Cold front slides into northeast Wyoming/northwest South Dakota tonight and makes it through southwest/south central South Dakota Tuesday morning.
742 AM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase into Monday with the approach and passage of a cold front.
250 AM PDT Mon Sep 19 2022 Cooler temperatures continue ahead of a trough of low pressure hanging off the California Coast.
Dunn Previous Discussion: /Overnight through Tuesday/ A stout late season mid level ridge will remain parked over the region through the middle part of the week keeping North Texas hot and dry for the next several days. Modest afternoon mixing will allow dewpoints to fall into the low/mid 60s. /Issued 224 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022/ /Tuesday Night and Beyond/ The ridge will be at its peak strength around the middle part of the week as 500mb heights climb to near 595 decameters right over North Texas.
646 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022 Today and Tonight: Warm, dry weather is expected across most of the forecast area again today as a mid-level ridge strengthens and expands across the region. 5 inches and instability could overcome the capping influences of the ridge. Otherwise, drier air and influences of the ridge should keep most of the area only partly cloudy. High pressure, light winds, and clear skies will allow for overnight temps to radiate down into the mid-60s again tonight. Patchy early morning shallow fog will be possible as residual low- level moisture settles in cooler low-lying areas, but dense fog is not expected.
As the low-level jet increases into the area, along with increasing warm air advection and moisture transport, shower and storm chances increase for parts of the area overnight. CAMs have come into better agreement with storms forming on the nose of the low-level moisture transport convergence area, with increasing precipitation chances as the LLJ increases through the night. Guidance suggests these storms will be progressive, moving southeast through the forecast area (along the warm front) and exiting by Tuesday morning. With this warm front/WAA, increased temperatures are still expected on Tuesday. At the surface an associated cold front is forecast to move southeast across the forecast area Tuesday night.
938 AM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022 High pressure will move off to the south and east today.
633 AM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022 (Today and tonight) Buckle up, the ridge starts to build into the region today which will lead a warm and drying trend across the region. Today, high temperates will start their upwards march and peak upper 80s to the low 90s. The feels like temperature will may only be a few degrees warmer, in the low 90s, due to the drier air in place.
Upper level high pressure over the srn plains expands slightly westward today/tonight, while deep low pressure remains in place along the nrn California Coast. Weak upper trough and associated moisture, visible in satellite imagery over NM early this morning, will rotate northward around the high and into CO today, bringing a slight chance of thunderstorms to the mountains and areas along the NM border this afternoon and early evening.
Upstream MCS will continue to dive southeast towards the CWA through daybreak but most all guidance shows it dying off as the parent trough lifts northeast and it moves into an increasingly stable air mass. Stuck with the NBM with respect to afternoon highs today which is on the warmer side of guidance, but given the dry forecast I believe this seems reasonable. Surface ridging remains anchored over the CWA into tonight, with northwesterly flow continuing aloft.
With strong high pressure aloft centered over the southern US, abnormally warm temperatures are expected today and tomorrow. Tomorrow the ridge aloft continues to strengthen and will lead to another abnormally hot day with an EFI MaxT value of 0. Highs are expected to be a couple degrees warmer than today across the board. There is also the possibility for record warm low temperatures tomorrow morning, though these may be in jeopardy due to a strong cold front that may come through as early as Tuesday night.
(Today through Tuesday) The high pressure ridge over the Mid-Atlantic states appears to be weakening but it will continue to keep things dry over dry for North and Central GA through the short term. With the ridge weakening moisture begins to increase across the region as well.
611 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022 (Today and tonight) The late season heat (near triple digit heat index values along and east of I-35) will continue today under the influence of an upper ridge.
Currently - A weak low level trough is aligned along the Florida peninsula. An axis of increased deep layered moisture is collocated with the trough. Short Term Update - The lower level trough will remain across the Keys this afternoon. However, it is difficult to lower PoPs given the background troughing, over 2 inches of PW, and lack of inhibition. A weak trough across the area will result in light breezes ranging from northeast to east on our western waters and east to southeast to the east.
A pleasant Monday is in the forecast as northern Arizona is sandwiched between a trough to the west, located just off the Pacific coast, and a ridge to the east, centered along the Texas/Oklahoma state line.
A low pressure system off the northern California coast will bring gusty south winds to the area through midweek.
Quiet weather with cooler and less humid conditions are forecast today. A weak wave topping the upper ridge is now expected to remain north of the CWA. Dry conditions with mostly clear skies is forecast with lows dropping into the low to mid 60s. Cold front midweek will bring much cooler temperatures and a less humid airmass to the region. thermal ridge at 850mb will bring anonymously warm temperatures (21-23C) back into the region.
925 AM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022 A weak cold front will move south across the area today, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures should be quite warm the next couple of days, with highs each day rising into the low to mid 80s and mid to upper 80s respectively. Tonights lows should fall into the low to mid 60s around the area. The period will start with a large, strong upper level high centered over TX, and the flow around it providing weak northwest winds aloft over KY. At the surface, high pressure pressure will reside over the central Appalachians. A trough (currently over western Canada) will be moving through the prevailing westerlies north of the high, and descending east southeast into the north central CONUS.
Cooler and Less Humid Behind Weak Cold Front. A weak cold front is currently crossing northern Michigan and will exit the area to the south and east over the next few hours. The air mass in the wake of the front is cooler and less humid than recent days, but still warmer than normal for mid-September. Upper and surface ridging will build across the area later today into tonight behind the front.
642 AM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022 A weak cold front will move south across the area today, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
620 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022 (Today through Tuesday afternoon) Mid-level high pressure continues its slow build across the Southern Plains. This area of high pressure slowly slides west over the next several days. Most locations remain dry as subsidence under the ridge keeps convection out of the forecast.
214 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022 A cold front pushes into the region from the north by tonight.
Above average lows are expected with WAA aloft and warm front meandering northward. Lows remain in the lower to mid 60s. Highs for Tuesday continue to have a decent bust potential, given the continued varying cold frontal passage times (varying as much 6 hours between models). If the front comes through slower, expect warmer highs, especially in northwestern IA.
1226 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022 (Today through Tuesday afternoon) Mid-level high pressure continues its slow build across the Southern Plains. This area of high pressure slowly slides west over the next several days. Most locations remain dry as subsidence under the ridge keeps convection out of the forecast.
An upper ridge will be centered over north central TX into OK on Tuesday. Winds will shift to the north in the afternoon as the leading edge of a cold front drops south. An upper low over Hudson Bay Canada and upper trough extending south into the Northern Plains and Great Lakes will drive in cooler air behind the cold front Tuesday night.
(This evening through Tuesday) The center of the upper ridge will continue to wobble near the Red River in the short term.
A majority of the deterministic models, as well as CAMs, slowly lift this front northward as a warm front over the next 6 to 12 hours.
Forecast highs in the lower 90s most locations still looks on track. Upper level high pressure builds over the southern plains causing heights to rise over Nebraska over the two days.
Issued by National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022 (Today and tonight) The late season heat (near triple digit heat index values along and east of I-35) will continue today under the influence of an upper ridge.
Latest obs indicate rich surface moisture has yet to be swept out by the expanding high pressure from the northeast.
Tonight: Heat dome begins building northward which will turn our winds to a southerly direction later tonight, as the frontal boundary becomes a warm front. Lows will range from the mid 60s north to the lower 70s south. The big story will be the potential for record heat with afternoon temperatures soaring into the lower to mid 90s. Key messages: 1) Much cooler mid to late this week.
1253 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022 (Issued 1253 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022) High pressure will move ewd tnt while a wave of low pressure slowly approaches from the Great Plains. Aloft, a short amplitude ridge will shift across the region with impressive 850-700 mb thetae advection on the nose of a 40 kt LLJ. For the afternoon and early evening the thermal ridge will settle over the area and cap the area despite a stalling warm front over srn WI. The high shifts to southern Lake Michigan by days end.
247 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022 Key Messages: - Shower and storm chances increase overnight - Very warm and muggy tomorrow SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT: As a warm front approaches the area overnight, shower and storm chances will be on the rise-especially in central Wisconsin. A surge of warm, very moist air helps saturate the lower levels late tonight. Once the low levels are saturated, warm air advection, moisture transport, and a low level jet will all work to provide plentiful lift and initiate showers and storms in western Wisconsin. WARM AND MUGGY TOMORROW: Very warm temperatures will arrive in the wake of the warm front tomorrow with highs reaching 85-90 for most. Heat index values are currently forecast in the low to mid 90s tomorrow afternoon. COOLER WEATHER ON THE WAY.
1230 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase this afternoon with the approach and passage of a cold front.
341 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022 Discussion/Marine -- Warm frontal showers and possible late tonight/Tuesday -- First order of business is a warm front that is expected to touch off some showers late tonight into Tuesday morning.
/13 (Now through Tuesday) A large upper level ridge over the southern plains into the southeast states will continue through the period. The lack of significant deep layer moisture and the subsidence from the upper ridge will keep conditions hot and mostly dry across the area. Otherwise, temps will continue to warm through the near term with highs on Tuesday in the low to mid 90s with heat index values in the upper 90s.
Discussion: In the upper levels, a ridge centered near Texas will bring northwesterly flow to the region. At the surface, weak high pressure is over the Southeast.
A dry southerly flow aloft will continue to today as an upper low spins off the California coast.
(Tonight) High pressure continues to be centered over Texas this afternoon. Otherwise, temperatures are currently in the lower to mid 80s. We could still hit the lower 90s west of the I-65 corridor before sunset. Weak boundary layer advection around the northern edge of the upper ridge should continue to bring more moist air into the region tonight.
213 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022 An upper trof over southwest Canada will continue to dig toward the northern Great Lakes through the next 48-60hrs. Do have to wonder though if the ACCAS advecting east out of SE SD and toward southern MN may eventually lead to some showers/storms over that way toward evening? Temperatures will turn cooler behind the front for Tuesday/Wed as a much milder airmass drives south into the region.
The forecast for tomorrow should be even more drier/stable as the deeply stacked ridge begins to settle over the Southern Plains.
Have large upper low off the California coast and deep south to southwesterly flow at all levels ahead of the low.
That means West Texas will continue to be dominated by an upper high centered to our east. Expect lows again mostly in the 60s tonight while highs on Tuesday range from near 90 degrees on the Caprock to the middle 90s over the lower elevations of our eastern counties.
Negligible change in the strength/position of the ridge through tomorrow will result in temperatures remaining 5 to 10 degrees above normal for most and only slightly warmer temperatures Tuesday. /NEW/ /Tuesday Night Through The Weekend/ The upper level ridge will continue to dominate our sensible weather through the work week and keep temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal from midweek into the weekend.
These echoes are associated with a stationary frontal boundary across southern Nebraska associated with a low pressure system over NW Kansas. This stationary front will lift north as a warm front overnight tonight into early Tuesday shifting winds to southwesterly at the surface and bringing in very warm temperatures.
Currently - A weak trough remains anchored along the Florida Peninsula. As a result, the weak trough over Florida will shift into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and almost wash out. While the trough will no longer affect local weather patterns by Tuesday, the steering flow is expected to gradually back to east northeast.
144 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase this afternoon with the approach and passage of a cold front.
351 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022 (Issued 351 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022) Tonight through Tuesday: High pressure will move ewd tnt while a wave of low pressure slowly approaches from the Great Plains. Aloft, a short amplitude ridge will shift across the region with impressive 850-700 mb thetae advection on the nose of a veering 40 kt LLJ. For the afternoon and early evening the thermal ridge will settle over the area and cap the area despite a stalling warm front over srn or central WI. The cold front will pass Wed AM followed by brisk nwly winds and strong cold advection into Thu AM. A 546 DM thickness trough will follow the cold front and swing through the area Thu AM.
146 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022 A weak cold front will move south across the area today, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Skies are sunny across northern and central Arizona this morning, with afternoon temperatures expected to be a few degrees warmer than normal. Made some minor adjustments to PoP fields to spread low storm chances north of the Mogollon Rim as storm motion will take activity northward off the higher terrain. A pleasant Monday is in the forecast as northern Arizona is sandwiched between a trough to the west, located just off the Pacific coast, and a ridge to the east, centered along the Texas/Oklahoma state line.
225 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022 A weak cold front will cross the region tonight.
The upper level ridge currently centered over northern/ northeastern TX is expected to slide slightly westward through Tuesday afternoon. At the surface, we will remain on the western side of a ridge centered over the southern Mississippi River valley. This will keep our winds south to southeasterly, our temperatures warmer than normal, with muggy overnight and early morning conditions.
258 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022 (This afternoon through Tuesday) The trend of no major changes continues in the short term as high pressure reigns supreme. High temps will be on the gradual rise through the week, with highs creeping into the low 90s by tomorrow afternoon with lows in the mid to upper 60s.
319 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022 The 925-700mb cold front cleared the Michigan/Ohio stateline as of 18Z this afternoon. A quick evolution to full-fledged warm air advection regime on Tuesday as the 900-700mb thetae warm front will advance to the east.
A prefrontal trough continues to moves through the western part of the state mixing drier air to the surface. A cold front over north central Montana is still expected to push through the region late tonight bring fall like weather. Precipitation is possible along the cold front tonight into Tuesday morning mainly for western North Dakota. The cold front will bring cooler temperatures to the region through the work week.
Highs should be in the lower to mid 90s Tuesday with heat index near 100.
Temps are already getting into the lower 90s in spots, and expecting the western half to be in the low 90s this afternoon.
1123 AM MDT Mon Sep 19 2022 Current surface map places warm front across northwest South Dakota with robust warm advection across the forecast area. Cold front slides into northeast Wyoming/northwest South Dakota tonight and makes it through southwest/south central South Dakota Tuesday morning.
425 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022 Shower and thunderstorm will end this eve with passage of a cold front.
337 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022 Weak high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley tonight and Tuesday.
Negligible change in the strength/position of the ridge through tomorrow will result in temperatures remaining 5 to 10 degrees above normal for most and only slightly warmer temperatures Tuesday. /Issued 224 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022/ /Tuesday Night and Beyond/ The ridge will be at its peak strength around the middle part of the week as 500mb heights climb to near 595 decameters right over North Texas.
242 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022 A coastal trough keeps a slight chance a showers near the southern portions of the Grand Strand region today, though most should stay dry. High pressure keeps a mostly dry trend throughout the week, with high temperatures soaring into the 90s. A cold front brings a dose of fall by this weekend. Weakening coastal trough should be gone by sunset. Dry weather persists after the coastal trough moves out and upper level ridging builds in from the west.
Capping will spread over the area late this afternoon limiting redevelopment until a 20% chance returns overnight into Tuesday morning along the cold front. Will see temps cooler tomorrow in the wake of the front as it pushes across the area in before noon.
151 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022 Aviation - Showers and a few storms early this morning - Elevated convection will continue to develop in the vicinity of the I-94 corridor early this morning with moderate instability in place just ahead of the cold front. Fair wx is forecast for the rest of the day today as high pressure builds in behind the front and northwest winds slowly advect a drier airmass into our area.
110 PM MDT Mon Sep 19 2022 Water vapor shows long wave trof moving into the far western CONUS, with northern stream wave digging over BC/ALTA and nearly cut off low just off the coast. At the surface, lee trof moving through the western Dakotas with cold front just entering northwest MT. Cold front will cross in the morning with a secondary push on Tuesday night.
Winds will switch to the north with the cold front tonight and expect cooler temperatures on Tuesday.
(The rest of tonight) Dome of high pressure remained common across the Southern Plains this evening with mostly clear skies to some passing high clouds over Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. high pressure along with mostly clear to a few passing high clouds should continue across the CWA. low temps look to be slightly cooler for much of Northeast Oklahoma while lows across the rest of the CWA should be close to this mornings lows.
614 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) The center of the upper ridge will continue to wobble near the Red River in the short term.
An upper trof over southwest Canada will continue to dig toward the northern Great Lakes through the next 48-60hrs. Do have to wonder though if the ACCAS advecting east out of SE SD and toward southern MN may eventually lead to some showers/storms over that way toward evening? Temperatures will turn cooler behind the front for Tuesday/Wed as a much milder airmass drives south into the region.
By around noon Tuesday, mid-level ridging, and particularly at the 700 mb level builds over Central TX from the east and will bring a more continental air mass into our forecast area. Rain chances continue to retreat gradually closer to the coast with the gradual increase in ridge strength aloft.
An upper low will be off the coast of California through Tuesday with warm, dry weather across the area.
918 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022 Shower and thunderstorms will end this eve with passage of a cold front.
640 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022 (Tonight) High pressure continues to be centered over Texas this afternoon. Otherwise, temperatures are currently in the lower to mid 80s. We could still hit the lower 90s west of the I-65 corridor before sunset. Weak boundary layer advection around the northern edge of the upper ridge should continue to bring more moist air into the region tonight.