Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Tonight and Saturday A warm front was lifting north across the forecast area this afternoon. A weak low pressure system was moving through east central MN, with a weak cold front extending to its south. Additional low stratus and fog was observed behind the cold front. Expect the warm front to continue to lift north this evening, with perhaps just enough low-level saturation to squeeze out patchy light freezing drizzle over the far north. After a brief clearing trend behind the warm front, low stratus and areas of fog should return to north central WI overnight as the previously- mentioned cold front moves through.
And despite some increasing high clouds late in the day, another day of ample sunshine will lead to warmer temps again, pushing thru the 40s and flirting with 50 in the south. whether or not we realize the blend's barely audible pops will ultimately depend upon the track of the Low. The broad majority of the guidance continues to track the Low from the Red River Valley to the Gulf Coast, resulting in no appreciable pcpn working into our FA. The nearby presence of the Low effectively neutralizes the height rise this weekend, so the warming trend sorta plateaus near or slightly above seasonal norms.
312 PM EST Fri Dec 20 2019 Updated at 112 PM EST Fri Dec 20 2019 Cirrus will continue to stream through our skies ahead of an upper low over Oklahoma through Saturday morning. Surface ridging will keep the low and mid-levels dry, other than some low clouds edging from the Tennessee Valley into southern Kentucky. Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal with lows Saturday morning near the freezing mark and afternoon highs in the lower 50s.
/Issued 403 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2019/ The upper level low pressure system currently moving east southeast across northern New Mexico towards the far sw TX Panhandle is forecast to continue that same general motion across the srn TX Panhandle and into sw OK by late this afternoon. The associated cold front extending from east of KLBL to southeast of KDUX to southeast of Bootleg will move through the remainder of the fcst area by around 18Z today with northwest to north winds in its wake.
1040 AM MST Fri Dec 20 2019 Dry conditions and mostly clear skies will prevail for the short term, as a ridge of high pressure crosses over the region. This weekend still looks quiet as an upper ridge moves over the region, and as a result temperatures will be running 5-10 degrees above normal.
Low VFR cigs will overspread the E OK sites by late this afternoon as low level moisture return occurs ahead of an upper level low. However, since the upper low will be diving down into TX, some improvement in cigs is expected by tomorrow morning with clouds beginning to scatter out by midday. Not as much wind today and slightly cooler than yesterday, but still mild for this time of year. Rain chances, though small at best, increase tonight mainly to the west and south of Tulsa as the upper low currently over the TX Panhandle approaches. /Issued 406 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2019/ A compact closed upper low will move from northeast New Mexico east across southern Oklahoma today into Saturday. Temperatures will be a bit cooler today and Saturday as well due to increased cloud cover.
1022 AM MST Fri Dec 20 2019 Deep upper trough continues to move eastward with northern stream wave lifting into the Upper Midwest and southern wave in the midst of cutting off from the flow. Another deep upper low churning off the Pacific NW coast will slowly dig into the SW US over the next few days. Result of all of this will be large-scale ridging over the central US through the weekend.
Though cloud cover will thicken through the course of the day, considerable dry air in the lower levels will delay any precipitation possibilities until later this evening. /issued 603 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2019/ For the 20/12z TAFs, VFR conditions should prevail for the entire period, but mid and high level cloud cover will be increasing ahead of a strong upper level trough that will enter the Southern Plains today. /Today through Saturday/ An upper trough currently over New Mexico will move eastward into Central Oklahoma by sunrise Saturday before finally digging southeast across North and East Texas. However, the trough will be nearly overhead, so the strong lift may be enough for at least a slight chance of isolated to widely scattered showers across most of the area during the day Saturday.
An upper level low to our northwest continues to provide enough lift to provide a widespread coverage of light rain in south and southeast Texas.
132 PM CST Fri Dec 20 2019 High pressure is slipping off to the east this afternoon, with winds across Middle Tennessee turning southward. This is allowing for warmer temperatures to advect into the region in spite of a thickening cirrus shield. Expect temperatures to stay above freezing tonight except along parts of the Cumberland Plateau and Highland Rim. This is taking place because an inverted trough extending northward from the Gulf of Mexico will interact with a deep upper low that will swing across the Gulf Coast during the weekend.
1256 PM EST Fri Dec 20 2019 Weak ridging continues aloft over the region ahead of a low dropping into Texas. At the surface, high pressure remains centered over the mid-Atlantic region, with a northeast/east flow continuing across the local area.
1208 PM CST Fri Dec 20 2019 Cold front has pushed across KLBB and KPVW resulting in a gusty northwest wind that will last thorugh the afternoon. An upper level short wave trough over northern New Mexico this morning will move eastward across the South Plains and Panhandle today, but there is very limited moisture available with system. A wind shift to the north with little temperature change from yesterday is all that is expected as a weak cold front associated with the upper trough moves across the forecast area. Upper level ridging behind the departing trough will initiate a warming trend for the weekend. Mild temperatures will persist at least through Christmas Eve with mid level southwesterly flow ahead of a West Coast upper trough.
/Issued 1011 AM EST Fri Dec 20 2019/ Near term on track given morning obs trends and should have a rather pleasant and cool day on tap with ridge dominated dry conditions. Some high to mid level clouds will be on the increase from the west later as moisture return kicks in ahead of the developing trough to the west.
Dry and sunny weather continues today under high pressure.
957 AM MST Fri Dec 20 2019 High pressure aloft building into the region with a moderate northerly flow aloft. A bit warmer today except for areas still under snow cover and lingering low level inversions, especially through portions of Weld county. Skies cleared pretty quickly behind yesterday's trough, though there are some clouds and a few flurries in Grand county and upstream to about Craig. Temperatures should wind up a little warmer than yesterday's highs. With clear skies and light winds, it will still be cold in the low lying areas, but warmer than this morning. An upper level ridge will be over the Central and Southern Rockies Saturday and Saturday night.
At this point it's not a certain thing but a majority of forecast soundings show the lowest couple hundred feet saturating and fogging in with a decent temperature inversion. Given the higher probabilities from the SREF and the pattern, have expanded the fog mention in both area and time. This system will have little impact on our weather other then to dampen out potential warming tomorrow due to weakening of the long wave ridge over the area. We should still be able to climb into the lower to middle 50s.
109 PM CST Fri Dec 20 2019 Water vapor imagery as of 19z shows an upper level low moving southeastward across the TX panhandle with a plume of moisture streaming up from the Gulf into AL/MS/AR/LA. Given very dry airmass in place, not expecting any rain from this system tonight, but a noticeable increase in cloud cover is expected this evening as the low pushes closer towards AL. As a result of the cloud cover this evening, overnight lows only drop down into the upper 30s to around 40, which is several degrees warmer compared to last few chilly nights.
Strong upper level ridging across the western US combined with deep troughing across the southeast US will continue to keep dry and pleasant conditions across north central and western Nebraska.
220 PM CST Fri Dec 20 2019 An upper level low pressure continues to work east across the Panhandles this afternoon.
233 PM CST Fri Dec 20 2019 (Tonight and Saturday) An upper level low currently over the South Plains will track across North Texas and southern Oklahoma overnight. Highs on Saturday will be in the 50s across much of the Big Country and Heartland to the lower 60s elsewhere.
149 PM MST Fri Dec 20 2019 WV/IR imagery indicate a broad area of high clouds over the Pac NW and nrn Rockies associated with a jet atop a SW-NE oriented mid-to- upper ridge. The only cyclonic feature of note across the CONUS is an upper low centered over the srn Plains, with a corresponding shear/trof axis extending nwd into wrn Ontario. Skies are becoming increasingly overcast owing to the high clouds along the ern periphery of the aforementioned wrn ridge, and warming temps over the hills/foothills are indicative of the approaching low-level thermal ridge. Midlevel ridge will shift ewd toward our area this weekend, with the axis roughly overhead by Sat night/Sun AM.
Issued by National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1139 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2019 Low clouds continue to develop/spread into central/south-central Oklahoma early this afternoon as upper low approaches from the west. Upper low briefly stalls across southeast Oklahoma into Saturday morning but conditions should begin to slowly improve around late morning as clouds begin scatter.
355 PM EST Fri Dec 20 2019 High pressure will remain just off to our east tonight and Saturday.
The next several days will be dry with afternoon high temperatures trending warmer through the weekend.
Temperatures were in the lower 40s over western KY. However, across central and eastern KY, we're seeing a bit of a ridge-valley split. The valleys and cool spots were already into the upper 20s and lower 30s, with the higher elevations areas remaining in the mid-upper 30s. Lows generally will be in the upper 20s to the lower-mid 30s. Updated at 112 PM EST Fri Dec 20 2019 Cirrus will continue to stream through our skies ahead of an upper low over Oklahoma through Saturday morning. Surface ridging will keep the low and mid-levels dry, other than some low clouds edging from the Tennessee Valley into southern Kentucky. Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal with lows Saturday morning near the freezing mark and afternoon highs in the lower 50s.
/issued 403 PM CST Fri Dec 20 2019/ There is a chance for drizzle/light rain over southern/eastern OK this afternoon into tomorrow morning as the closing low pressure trough tracks across southern OK overnight.
Most low temperatures have likely already been reached tonight as warmer air advects in from the south and the clouds inhibit heat loss. Stratus continues to exit to the east this afternoon as the upper trough moves into MN. Upper ridging builds in tonight so most areas will see warmer temps with steady or rising temps in the east as places along and east of I-29 will not have the chance for much daytime heating due to the stratus. Model guidance has trended lower under the ridge.
Water vapor imagery as of 19z shows an upper level low moving southeastward across the TX panhandle with a plume of moisture streaming up from the Gulf into AL/MS/AR/LA. Given very dry airmass in place, not expecting any rain from this system tonight, but a noticeable increase in cloud cover is expected this evening as the low pushes closer towards AL. As a result of the cloud cover this evening, overnight lows only drop down into the upper 30s to around 40, which is several degrees warmer compared to last few chilly nights.
/issued 252 PM CST Fri Dec 20 2019/ An upper level low pressure system currently over the Texas Panhandle will move east into the Lower Mississippi Valley over the weekend. Light rain and drizzle from the upper level low will begin to spread into portions of Northeast Mississippi by Saturday afternoon.
302 PM MST Fri Dec 20 2019 Upper ridge of high pressure will continue to build across Colorado through Saturday. Considerable warming in the lower to mid level portions of the atmosphere as 700mb temperatures expected to rise to around +4c at Denver by Saturday afternoon. Readings in the afternoon expected to be in the 50s/60s across lower elevations except a bit cooler across portions of Weld county with persistent shallow inversions and lingering snow cover. The upper ridge will start to slide east of the state Saturday night, while a surface lee trough deepens over the plains.
Light northwest flow currently prevails at the surface and aloft behind the trough that passed through the area this morning. Temperatures should be able to push into the 50s on Saturday with continued clear skies and the mid/upper level ridge building overhead.
On Saturday, a bit more sunshine expected with warm south to southwest winds, which will allow temperatures to warm up into the low 40s to low 50s.
403 PM CST Fri Dec 20 2019 There is a chance for drizzle/light rain over southern/eastern OK this afternoon into tomorrow morning as the closing low pressure trough tracks across southern OK overnight.
There remains the potential for some patchy areas of drizzle/light rain with the low and will carry a mention at KMLC. where the higher potential looks to be. /Issued 330 PM CST Fri Dec 20 2019/ Upper low continues to track east across TX Panhandle this afternoon and will continue slowly moving east-southeast.
/issued 228 PM CST Fri Dec 20 2019/ Winds have been out of the north for much area since just after sunrise and that will continue into the evening hours behind the weak cold front that pushed south through the region overnight. Winds will remain light throughout the day tomorrow as ridging sets in quickly overnight behind the exiting upper level low to the east.
Unseasonable warmth has supplanted previous snow and freezing rain concerns across the Northern Rockies today. In fact, many low elevation valley locations will not cool below freezing overnight tonight.
Updated at 112 PM EST Fri Dec 20 2019 Cirrus will continue to stream through our skies ahead of an upper low over Oklahoma through Saturday morning. Surface ridging will keep the low and mid-levels dry, other than some low clouds edging from the Tennessee Valley into southern Kentucky. Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal with lows Saturday morning near the freezing mark and afternoon highs in the lower 50s.
A low pressure system will develop in the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. The broad upper ridge will shift off the Southeast Coast. Followed a model blend with lows in the lower and middle 30s. The models have become more consistent with the timing of a developing low pressure system in the northern Gulf of Mexico during the short term. Moisture advection into the Southeast increases as the low deepens.
The clearing skies and higher dewpoints will allow patchy fog to develop overnight as temperatures likely slip below freezing. The low level winds are expected to turn to the south to southwest overnight, which should cleanse the haze.
Stratus continues to exit to the east this afternoon as the upper trough moves into MN. Upper ridging builds in tonight so most areas will see warmer temps with steady or rising temps in the east as places along and east of I-29 will not have the chance for much daytime heating due to the stratus. Model guidance has trended lower under the ridge.
/issued 233 PM CST Fri Dec 20 2019/ (Tonight and Saturday) An upper level low currently over the South Plains will track across North Texas and southern Oklahoma overnight. Highs on Saturday will be in the 50s across much of the Big Country and Heartland to the lower 60s elsewhere.
330 PM CST Fri Dec 20 2019 Upper low continues to track east across TX Panhandle this afternoon and will continue slowly moving east-southeast.
Broad upper ridging will build over the eastern US late this weekend as a closed upper low crosses the southern Miss. Moisture associated with this low will remain far to our south, and dry weather with above-normal temperature should continue through Christmas. VFR conditions expected through the TAF period under the influence of high pressure. High pressure will support general VFR through the weekend.
625 PM MST Fri Dec 20 2019 Deep H500 trough with the axis located along the 140W longitude line approaches the North American west coast. H700 gradient continues tight, with leeside troughing along The Rocky Mountain Front.
505 PM MST Fri Dec 20 2019 Allowed the High Wind Warning for Arlington and Elk Mountain to expire at 5 PM.
943 PM EST Fri Dec 20 2019 A high pressure stretching over the eastern states tonight and a frontal boundary over western Cuba have kept a strong pressure gradient over the FL peninsula. Temperatures will drop to the mid to upper 50s for Orange county northward to Lake/Volusia, to the lower to mid 60s for Osceola and interior Treasure Coast and to near 70 for coastal Martin and St Lucie counties.
624 PM EST Fri Dec 20 2019 High pressure will remain just off to our east tonight and Saturday.
428 PM MST Fri Dec 20 2019 WV/IR imagery indicate a broad area of high clouds over the Pac NW and nrn Rockies associated with a jet atop a SW-NE oriented mid-to- upper ridge. The only cyclonic feature of note across the CONUS is an upper low centered over the srn Plains, with a corresponding shear/trof axis extending nwd into wrn Ontario. Skies are becoming increasingly overcast owing to the high clouds along the ern periphery of the aforementioned wrn ridge, and warming temps over the hills/foothills are indicative of the approaching low-level thermal ridge. Midlevel ridge will shift ewd toward our area this weekend, with the axis roughly overhead by Sat night/Sun AM.
The upper level pattern shows an area of low pressure spinning over the western Red River Valley this afternoon. For us, it should be a nice start to the season with temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees above average in the low and mid 50s. An upper-level ridge builds into the area for the weekend ahead of a deepening upper trough over the western CONUS.
The sky over SW KS is clear, and it will remain clear through Saturday, as upper ridging begins to move in with increasing heights/thickness/850 mb temperatures. Sunday will be even warmer, as the very strong ridge builds in, and 500 mb heights eclipse 580 dm across the southern zones.
912 PM MST Fri Dec 20 2019 WV/IR imagery indicate a broad area of high clouds over the Pac NW and nrn Rockies associated with a jet atop a SW-NE oriented mid-to- upper ridge. The only cyclonic feature of note across the CONUS is an upper low centered over the srn Plains, with a corresponding shear/trof axis extending nwd into wrn Ontario. Skies are becoming increasingly overcast owing to the high clouds along the ern periphery of the aforementioned wrn ridge, and warming temps over the hills/foothills are indicative of the approaching low-level thermal ridge. Midlevel ridge will shift ewd toward our area this weekend, with the axis roughly overhead by Sat night/Sun AM.
Most low temperatures have likely already been reached tonight as warmer air advects in from the south and the clouds inhibit heat loss. Stratus continues to exit to the east this afternoon as the upper trough moves into MN. Upper ridging builds in tonight so most areas will see warmer temps with steady or rising temps in the east as places along and east of I-29 will not have the chance for much daytime heating due to the stratus. Model guidance has trended lower under the ridge. The upper level ridge will be squarely over the Northern Plains, and 850mb temperatures will be quite warm, a good 2 standard deviations above climatology.
MVFR conditions should remain common tonight into Saturday morning as the upper low moves into the region. The low ceilings and precip potentials should remain to the west in Eastern Oklahoma. Light precip has remained rather spotty thus far this evening however some uptick in coverage is possible as the upper low draws closer to the area.
330 AM EST Sat Dec 21 2019 The morning surface analysis shows high pressure remains posted up to the north and east of the Ohio Valley. We do have some high clouds stream in from the south ahead of an upper level trough detached from the upper low nearing the ARKLATEX region this morning. Overall still looking in the low 50s under weak warm air advection pattern today. However, we still have the potential for at least some ridge/valley temperature splits, but not as pronounced as we have seen this week. Temperatures remain in the low to mid 50s for your Sunday.
Skies should clear from west to east this morning as the northern stream wave pushes off to the east, but it will leave behind a southern stream trof to close off over the Red River Valley.
Surface analysis this evening indicates a ridge of high pressure stretching from the Appalachians back through the Lower Mississippi Valley. 00Z upper air analysis and GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite trends indicate an upper level low over the Red River Valley with southwest flow aloft bringing high clouds over the region. /issued 252 PM CST Fri Dec 20 2019/ An upper level low pressure system currently over the Texas Panhandle will move east into the Lower Mississippi Valley over the weekend. Light rain and drizzle from the upper level low will begin to spread into portions of Northeast Mississippi by Saturday afternoon. Behind the upper level low, an upper level ridge will build over the Mid-South. Warmer and drier conditions will occur. Highs will reach into the lower to mid 60s by Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.
Today Through Sunday Night A slow moving upper closed low is located just west of AR over OK. some light rain or sprinkles have developed downstream of this upper low over ERN OK into portions of AR early this Sat morning. this upper closed low will wobble south into NERN TX. this upper low will have only moved over NRN LA. the upper low will start to gradually shift east into SRN MS and SRN AL.
910 PM CST Fri Dec 20 2019 A cloudy evening is underway across the TN Valley, with temperatures currently in the lower to middle 40s. Clouds/moisture streaming NE ahead of the approaching upper low (currently approaching the ArkLaTex region) will keep morning lows several degrees warmer than in days past.
Look for it to remain cloudy throughout the day as low level moisture continues to slowly build into the region all thanks to the inverted to our east and the closed upper low in the Arklatex region. This upper low will dig further to the southeast through the day, across the Gulf States on Sunday and be the instigator in producing showers for portions of Middle TN over the next couple of days.
Temperatures as a result were being held down around 40 or in the lower 40s in these snow covered areas and areas immediately downwind. The warmth looks to only increase in the days ahead leading up to Christmas, as an upper level ridge amplifies over the central CONUS. The dry conditions and continued warming trend expected leading up to Christmas, as an upper level ridge amplifies over the central CONUS. Pending sky cover this pattern (upper level ridge and SSW low level flow) is ripe for temperatures to over perform.
A tranquil day is expected today as the region continues to be dominated by the upper-level ridge centered over the western CONUS. It will also be a breezy day across the Buffalo Ridge area. Dry weather conditions continue Sunday through mid-week as the area continues under the influence of the ridge aloft. Ridge axis moves overhead by Sunday, allowing for continued mild temperatures. As of now, used the 75th percentile as guidance for MaxTemps to have temperatures slightly warmer than Saturday.