Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
630 PM EDT Wed Sep 14 2016 Building high pressure in the wake of this evenings cold front will provide dry weather and seasonal temperatures until the approach of a weekend frontral system. Otherwise, building high pressure in the wake of the front will bring clearing and lower dew points overnight into Thursday with temperatures near the seasonal averages.
Isolated convection will continue until late week ahead of an approaching cold front. /issued 1115 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2016/ Upper ridging across the region will keep us hot and mostly dry once again today with only minimal rain chances expected.
Main weather influence today through Thursday will be the upper low currently centered over northeastern Nevada. Thursday still somewhat unsettled with widely sctd showers and a few storms as the main upper trof axis swings across.
Tonight and Thursday High pressure will dominate the weather pattern through Thursday. Thursday Night Through Wednesday A developing low pressure system over the plains will bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms to the western Great Lakes starting Thursday night as the warm front associated with this system lifts north through the region.
Weak ridging aloft is in place over the northern Gulf coast, while at the surface, an inverted trough over the Central Gulf is making its way to the west. Precipitable water picks up significantly around SE Texas as the weak trough slides northeastward towards our area, and is expected to increase from around 1.
Tonight the closed low over the northern Rockies will shift east into the northern high plains. Rain chances less uncertain as model guidance suggest some degree of dry slotting could affect the FA depending on actual track of the low.
623 PM EDT Wed Sep 14 2016 A cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Otherwise, building high pressure in the wake of the front will bring clearing and lower dew points overnight into Thursday with temperatures near the seasonal averages.
315 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2016 The upper level pattern over the next few days will feature broad troughing across the western US and a subtropical ridge across the Gulf of Mexico.
Latest 07z surface indicates high pressure centered over the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota. and a cold front extending from southern Michigan into northern Missouri. Latest infrared satellite imagery shows alto cumulus deck of clouds north of cold front. over southern Minnesota/northern Iowa and southern half of Wisconsin Surface/upper level ridge over the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota builds into the Upper Great Lakes region today into tonight. Subsidence underneath the ridge will allow for skies to clear and become mostly sunny today across the forecast area.
201 PM EDT Wed Sep 14 2016 A cold front will move through the region today. High pressure and dry conditions will be in place for Thursday. As a weak cold front moves through the area today, isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will develop. Dry conditions and high pressure will be in place for Thursday.
A high pressure system is forecast to arrive over Indiana from the north overnight.
Surface obs show a trough with weak convergence extends from the tropical system across NE FL and into the northern Gulf waters where thunderstorms have been developing this morning, as can be seen on local radar imagery.
Between these features lies a weak upper ridge of high pressure extending west to east over the northern gulf region.
141 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 Aviation Showers are possible into mid morning then skies will clear as cooler and drier air move into the area thanks to a large high pressure system that will move overhead tonight then move east of the area Thursday.
Drier air has moved in across the forecast area today which is typical on the northwest side of a tropical cyclone.
After another cool start this morning temperatures have trended about 4 to 7 degrees warmer than yesterday. The cool upper low pressure system that has been bringing below normal temperatures has shifted into the Rocky Mountains. Building high pressure over the west coast is bringing the warmer temperatures.
Moderate to strong southwest flow aloft continues ahead of the trough axis which is moving into the northwest corner of the state at this time. The airmass on the plains looks like it will remain capped until the upper trough moves out of the mountains. On Thursday, westerly flow aloft will continue in the wake of tonight's upper trough. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than this afternoon, but the airmass will become unsettled in the afternoon, leading to isolated showers developing again.
123 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2016 Rather impressive upper level low pressure system is centered across Nevada early this morning per water vapor imagery. Models in agreement that little drying will take place lower levels of the atmosphere today, and expect the lower cloud deck to stick around much of the day. The lower clouds will eventually spread into northern Nebraska tonight as a strong southerly low level jet develops and rapidly transports moisture northward. The exception will be across northwest Nebraska, where a few more breaks in the clouds should allow for highs to reach the lower 70s. The trough will be responsible for sending a cold front across the cwa Thursday as well. and increasing large scale forcing associated with the trough will provide for the possibility of scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Still will likely see temperatures drop off pretty fast into the eastern cwa during the evening as the high retreats. By Thursday morning the upper low that's currently centered over northern Nevada will have drifted east toward Wyoming - setting up a southwest flow regime across the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi River Valley. 925mb-850mb moisture transport is maximized over MN/WI between 4PM-12AM Thursday, which also lines up well with the arrival of the trough and 75kt speed max in western MN and diffluent height lines spreading across the forecast area.
/This evening through Thursday/ Large area of high pressure extending from the Great Lakes through the Northern Plains this afternoon. The high pressure will move slowly east overnight will allow for return flow to begin over southern and western Iowa after midnight. While the low level weak moisture advection will begin, the 700-500 mb moisture advection will be lagging and the stronger deep layer moisture advection will be to the west of the state in the vicinity of the low level jet. Forcing overnight will be modest and associated with the thermodynamic processes with a lack of kinematics with the low level jet and any short wave energy still west. Overall much of the night is expected to remain dry with dry air from the high pressure limiting precipitation chances.
1046 AM PDT WED SEP 14 2016 Updated AVIATION Discussion Temperatures have risen to near/above freezing across Central Oregon. Upper level low pressure continues to pinwheel across ID/western MT this morning. with some clouds across mainly Wallowa County closest to the low. With the low departing. expect high temperatures today 3-5 degrees warmer than yesterday. with mid 70s to around 80 for the lower elevations and 60s to around 70 for the mtns.
324 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2016 A weak upper level ridge of high pressure extends across the Mid South down to the Gulf Coast this afternoon. The weak upper ridge will remain in place through Thursday as the boundary remains to the northwest of the region and begins to wash out. The highest pops (low end chance) will remain over northwest sections in closest proximity to the front. with high temperatures again in the lower to middle 90s with peak heat index readings around 100 degrees.
Upper low currently over the Rockies will slowly lift to the NE into the northern plains as an open wave tonight through Thu. This moisture transport will interact with a cold frontal boundary expected to drop south into northern KS for Thu night. Earlier model runs and the ECMWF suggests a ridge of high pressure would drop south across the plains for the weekend. Ketcham Zonal flow will not allow the cold frontal boundary to push very far into OK before washing out. Weak ridging looks to move across the plains for Mon-early Tue. This will lead to warmer temps for the beginning of the week.
Some models hint at a very weak closed low as it tracks westward, however winds remain generally below 20 kts through the region. Areawide, however, expect most locations to be around or below one inch, with the lowest amounts being west.
Dry weather with warmer daytime temperatures will continue for the interior through the week as high pressure builds over the region. High resolution models as well as the coarser GFS has winds over the coastal waters shifting around to the north tonight into Thu morning as the low slowly drifts southward. For now, sided with the higher resolution ARW and NMM models which indicates the potential for stratus to linger into early afternoon hours on Thu and Fri around Humboldt Bay.
248 PM EDT Wed Sep 14 2016 A cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Cold front from KZZV to KPIT and nearing KDUJ with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along the boundary. Have sped up exit of showers with late afternoon package as front should cross the ridges by evening. High pressure will bring clearing and lower dew points overnight into Thursday with temperatures near the seasonal averages.
A closed low pressure circulation will continue to meander northeast across southwest Montana this afternoon through early Thursday morning, bring widespread showers and a few thunderstorms to the region (including Lemhi County Idaho).
248 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2016 Surface to mid-level ridge of high pressure giving the area a pleasant day. mostly sunny elsewhere with temperatures as of 2 pm ranging from the middle 60s to the lower 70s. will likely see some patchy fog as temperatures dip down into the lower/mid 40s. Lows away from the bog country expected to fall off into the lower 50s. will likely get most of the day in dry as high pressure holds over the Great Lakes Region. Increasing cloud cover should hold high temperatures Thursday in the low to middle 70s.
Precipitable water values are forecast to remain at or above 2 inches for most of the region, but some drier air may work into our southern areas as the Atlantic ridge tries to build westward south of Tropical Storm Julia.
A ridge of high pres aloft will move across the Pacific NW during the latter half of the week keeping temps mild with plenty of sun inland and areas of clouds on the coast.
350 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2016 Water vapor loop shows large upper trough over the intermountain west with west-southwesterly flow extending from the southwest U. Upper low over the northern Rockies this afternoon will lift slowly northeast late this week.
Models are having a hard time with the low VFR cloud deck over southwest and south central ND. Today is a transition period and will be quiet with temperatures about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday.
333 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to build across South Florida over the next several days resulting in easterly flow and a typical late summertime weather pattern. High pressure will slowly begin to build across South Florida, and is already evident with east/southeast flow and decreasing tropical moisture, with a PWAT of 1.
1120 AM MDT WED SEP 14 2016 UPDATED AVIATION Upper level low centered along the NV/UT/ID border this morning will spin northeast across SE Idaho today spreading clouds and precipitation across SW MT.
Upper low is continuing its northeast path into Montana tonight then exiting Thursday night.
144 PM EDT Wed Sep 14 2016 A cold front will sweep across the North Country during the day today, bringing mostly cloudy conditions and a period of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. A northwesterly wind shift will bring noticeably cooler air into the region tonight.
140 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 A weak cold front crosses tonight. High pressure passes to the north Thursday.
338 PM EDT Wed Sep 14 2016 High pressure over the upper Great Lakes will build south over the region for the next couple of days providing dry weather and cooler temperatures.
Upper level low will depart the area later this evening, with some light isolated showers or thunderstorm possible in northeast Elko county.
433 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 A weak cold front will sag south through the region early this evening.
Embedded waves within the larger trough will then move through the area, which will bring periods of showers and thunderstorms over the next couple days.
Temperatures this afternoon are slightly warmer, mid to upper 60s, than yesterday even though stratus has blanketed most of the cwa through the day. Upper level trough pushing across the central Rockies this afternoon with numerous showers having developed on the leading edge of the wave. The upper level trough will cross the Rockies and push onto the high plains by tomorrow afternoon. Southerly winds continue to warm the low levels with 850 mb temps around and above 20c by midday.
632 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 A large area of high pressure centered over the western lakes will move across the Great Lakes.
351 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2016 (Tonight and Thursday) Currently, the western CONUS is dominated by an upper trough centered over Idaho with weak ridging over the central CONUS. A weak cold front that moved into the Big Country overnight is now located just south of Interstate 20.
403 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2016 Persistent upper ridge along the Gulf coastal region has allowed for lower to mid 90s once again this afternoon with some isolated to widely scattered convection developing over the past few hours. Convection and cloud cover will begin to diminish shortly after sunset with lows falling off into the lower to mid 70s overnight. A similar day is expected on Thursday with the ridge still entrenched across the SECONUS as highs once again climb into the lower to mid 90s.
636 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 A weak cold front crosses tonight. High pressure passes to the north Thursday.
0 inches most of this moisture appears to be confined to the lower levels of the boundary layer for the next 24 hours. ranging from the lower 70s for most inland areas generally along and north of the I-10 corridor. Highs thu will climb to the lower to middle 90s for most inland areas and the upper 80s to near 90 along the immediate coast.
Continued weak H5 ridging/lack of upper support will have a tendency to prevent widespread convection on Thursday, however showers and thunderstorms are possible mainly over the northwest half of the CWA as low level warm air advection coincides with deeper moisture. Precipitation chances drop off Thursday evening, but begin to increase over the western and northwestern sections of our CWA as the ridging sags southward and a cold front approaches from the plains.
Cooler temperatures expected along and west of I-25 with more clouds and showers. A dry and cooler night on tap with slowly clearing skies and lessening winds.
1233 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2016 The short term begins with high pressure sitting over the forecast area building from the north. However, severe weather looks very limited at best due to lack of forcing, poor midlevel lapse rates, and a capping inversion in the lower levels. Currently, forecast highs are only going to reach the lower to mid 60s across the local area.
High pressure will bring a return of warmer than average temperatures by the weekend. The low pressure system that brought cooler temperatures to much of the central California interior yesterday and into this morning has moved northeast into the Great Basin.
Water vapor loop and RAP analysis showed a mature mid-latitude cyclone spinning over southeastern Idaho into adjacent western Wyoming. This will weaken and shift quickly east, being replaced by a leeside trough across eastern Colorado. A trough axis will set up from east central Colorado into central Nebraska, and this should be a focus for late afternoon and evening thunderstorm development.
249 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 Moisture will remain over the region through much of the week in the easterly flow between high pressure to the north and Tropical Storm Julia just south of the area. Kept the highest pops across the southeast Midlands into the CSRA. Followed the guidance consensus for high temperatures in the low to mid 80s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The GFS and ECMWF indicate high moisture through much of the medium-range period associated with a long-fetch easterly flow south of pressure ridge.
/issued 343 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2016/ A weakening cold front across central and northeast Oklahoma will continue to become more and more diffuse with time.
340 PM EDT Wed Sep 14 2016 High pressure over the upper Great Lakes will build south over the region for the next couple of days providing dry weather and cooler temperatures.
438 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2016 An area of weak low pressure over the west central Gulf of Mexico is expected to move west towards the lower Texas coast Thursday into Thursday night. High pressure at various levels of the atmosphere will be mostly just north to east of the forecast area, and a series of inverted troughs will rotate around the high pressure over the western Gulf coast region.
223 PM EDT Wed Sep 14 2016 As high pressure moves offshore, a mainly dry cold front will cross the area this evening and tonight.
352 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 A weak cold front will sag south through the region later today.
Weak cold front extends from near Joplin to Okmulgee this morning with extensive cloud cover noted on satellite mainly north of I44.
Upper level ridging will erode over the region as this tropical wave and inverted trough move closer. This, along with more cloud cover and scattered showers/storms will keep afternoon temperatures a few degrees cooler today and Thursday.
The upper low lifting northeast into Wyoming will leave a cool and generally stable air mass over the region through the upcoming weekend.
Temperatures are also a bit cooler than the previous forecast with broken cloud cover over the mid state this morning, so adjusted temps slightly down for today.
High pressure will build in behind this front tonight, providing dry weather from tonight through Thursday night.
(Issued 1021 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2016) Northern Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee are under the influence of a ribbon of high pressure. To the southeast of this ridging and at the surface, Tropical Storm Julia is moving slowly off to the north/northeast. In fact, many times this enhances surface and upper level ridging to the west and northwest of a tropical system. Northwest of this ridging, a very slow moving frontal boundary is in place over the Midwestern CONUS. Given temperatures already in the lower 80s (85 at the Huntsville Airport), raised high temperatures west of I-65 into the 93 to 95 degree range despite expected cloud cover.
130 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 VFR conditions are forecast to continue throughout the TAF cycle with high pressure across the area.
158 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 A weak cold front will sag south through the region later today.
As the upper trough passes over the northern Rockies tonight through Thursday night, some precipitations skirts the northern CO border, but the rest of the area should be dry with clearing skies.
247 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2016 Healthy upper level low is situated over the Snake River Valley of Idaho this afternoon. The first of enhanced chances will be on Thursday night as a weak short wave trough moves overhead.
By tonight, the boundary has made passage/ceased to be a player as the upper ridge arcs across the mid Mississippi river valley, providing a brief pop respite save for a transitioning slight chance mention we've been carrying in the SEMO Ozarks. We still see height falls in the High plains and backed swlys aloft driving Pacific moisture this way, with Pops incoming again during the daytime Thursday, in advance of this next approaching system.
315 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 A large area of high pressure centered over the western lakes will move across the Great Lakes.
1237 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2016 Upper ridging will move across the forecast area today, helping to bring a fairly benign day weather wise to this area. Because of this, do not have high temperatures any warmer in our far south when compared to our northern zones. Tonight, a well advertised upper trough of low pressure will continue to move slowly eastward centered generally over the Rockies. Ahead of this trough, a leading short wave will eject northeastward into the central plains and into our forecast area late tonight. In addition, it is very stable in the lowest 3km of the atmosphere, with conditional instability existing above 700mb. With the lack of deep moisture profile, as well as unfavorable instability in the lowest 3km, likely pops are not warranted yet for the tonight period.
The north however, looks to be mostly sunny by mid morning, and with temperatures in the lower to mid 70s with low humidity levels and light winds, it will be a notably pleasant day. Winds tonight will be light east as the high pressure slides into the eastern Great Lakes. Mid clouds will spread back over the entire area especially after midnight as WAA increases ahead of the coming trof. Lows in the lower 50s north where clear skies linger longer will contrast to the cloud covered south where lows should only fall to the lower 60s.
Closed low over the great basin will slowly shift ne into the northern plains during the period. Main fgen zone will setup across nw sd thur with periods of shra expected there as the upper low center advects just nw of this area. Given the nature of closed lows, the forecast is still not quite nailed down yet, with a shift in best precip chances possible as well as appreciable changes in forecast temps. Cold front expected to shift se thur night with breezy nw winds developing on the SD plains. Look for warmer temps today with highs in the 70s with breezy se winds. Even warmer conds under the dry slot thur (se half), with clouds and rain hampering t rises across the nw third, where temps may be lowered more in later forecast runs.
/ISSUED 352 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2016/ A weak frontal boundary extended from just west of Tulsa OK to just southeast of Bowie and Breckenridge to just south of Sweetwater as of 3 AM. An upper level low currently over the Great Basin will move northeast into the northern Plains by tomorrow while a large trough will hang back across the western U.
459 PM MDT WED SEP 14 2016 19z surface analysis had lee trough from central MT into central WY with low developing along trough over north central WY. Water vapour loop had upper low spinning over southern ID with speed max in southeast quadrant across UT into WY. Thursday, upper low spins into eastern ND with deformation zone-like shield of precipitation affecting northern half of the CWA, especially during the day. 1-2KJ/kg MLCAPE develops ahead of cold front across south central SD with a few strong storms possible by afternoon given marginal shear profiles.
Water vapor loop and RAP analysis showed a mature mid-latitude cyclone spinning over southeastern Idaho into adjacent western Wyoming. This will weaken and shift quickly east, being replaced by a leeside trough across eastern Colorado. A trough axis will set up from east central Colorado into central Nebraska, and this should be a focus for late afternoon and evening thunderstorm development. By Thursday morning the New Mexico impulse should be exiting the High Plains to the east. Later in the day, a cold front will be pushing into northwestern Kansas.
/issued 333 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016/ High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to build across South Florida over the next several days resulting in easterly flow and a typical late summertime weather pattern. High pressure will slowly begin to build across South Florida, and is already evident with east/southeast flow and decreasing tropical moisture, with a PWAT of 1.