Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
343 AM EDT Mon Oct 10 2022 A weak cold front will dissolve as it dips toward PA from NY today. High pressure will control the weather into mid-week.
1223 AM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022 (Tonight through Monday Night) Weak sfc ridging remains anchored from the TN valley SW into E TX this evening, and will linger over the region overnight through much of Monday before gradually retreating to the E. While the thinning of the elevated cigs have allowed for temps to quickly drop within the dry air mass and the sfc ridging in place, this should slow overnight as the short term progs remain in agreement with AC cigs redeveloping late along the weak troughing overhead, and along the Nrn periphery of H850-700 ridging anchored over E TX. Did make some minor downward min temp adjustments over portions of NCntrl LA, which should largely be unaffected by these cigs and should see temps fall into the lower 50s once again.
Highs today will continue to be cooler than normal, from the upper 60s to lower 70s in most spots across the TN Valley.
1024 PM CDT Sun Oct 9 2022 A pattern change will get underway over the next 24-30 hours as the broad longwave trof over eastern NOAM shifts eastward leading to height rises over our region on Monday, and a broad and deepening longwave trof evolving from western Canada through the northern Rockies into the central Plains. Overall the pattern with light low level southwest winds favors slightly warmer temperatures tonight, although a few spots which are sheltered, especially in the eastern Ozarks or southern IL could get chilly again, possibly touching the upper 30s. Highs should average near 10 degrees above normal and be about 6-8 degrees warmer than today.
1201 AM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022 (This evening through Monday night) Dry high pressure will continue to control the area's weather through the short term.
A low pressure system dropping down the California Coast will lead to scattered showers and some thunderstorms around our region today.
A low pressure system will slowly exit southern Arizona today with isolated storms this afternoon.
243 AM EDT Mon Oct 10 2022 A weak cold front will dissolve as it dips toward PA from NY today. High pressure will control the weather into mid-week.
As clouds clear, fog is certainly possible overnight with calm conditions, and with temperatures widely expected to go below freezing, some freezing fog is also possible.
Under clear skies, this warm air advection will lift high temperatures into the low to mid 70s with a few areas in the far eastern Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland areas possibly only seeing the upper 60s. This is almost 10 degrees warmer than yesterday's high temperatures, which is near normal for this time of year. Tonight, winds ease as surface winds slightly back towards the southeast as a weakly amplified upper ridge passes east over the CWA. This won't have much of an impact on weather as skies remain clear most the night, but behind the upper ridge, high level clouds will begin working into the region from the west.
1104 PM MDT Sun Oct 9 2022 Another pleasant fall day is ongoing as weak ridging prevails over the forecast area. The wind will decrease after sunset Monday in the lower elevations, but will continue overnight in the mountains as a stronger system approaches.
-BL (This evening through Monday night) Dry high pressure will continue to control the area's weather through the short term.
An upper-level wave will bring clouds and showers to the area on Tuesday, resulting in slightly cooler readings in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Thanks to a warmer start to the day, ample sunshine, and light southerly flow, high temperatures today will climb into the middle to upper 70s.
520 AM MDT Mon Oct 10 2022 There is a much stronger trough moving into British Columbia this morning which will put this stagnant pattern in motion for a few days. The latest H500 hand analysis map continues to show a large trough over eastern NOAM transitioning to a robust ridge over the EPac and the western CONUS coastline. Over the next 24 hours the upstream trough will be digging into the Northern Rockies along with well reflected front at the surface. This trough will then continue to dig southward while staying progressive and sweep through the CWA late in the day. There is very little moisture associated with this system so the frontal and trough passage look to move through mostly uneventful.
Today: Water vapor imagery continues to show a large-scale ridge over the western third of the CONUS, with troughing over the eastern third and slight northwesterly flow across the central portion. Overnight, winds will stay in the the 10 to 15 mph range and provide enough mixing to keep low temperatures warmer that the last several days in the low-to-upper 50s.
The ridge of high pressure will begin to flatten today causing more of a westerly flow aloft.
Overall, the Florida Keys area is along the base of the sub tropical Atlantic ridge, with the nose of the ridge over the southern portion of the Florida Peninsula. Numerical guidance does show the drier air moving off to to the west later today, and a plug of moist air rotating along the base of the ridge over the Keys during the overnight hours.
Key Points: - Warm today and Tuesday, cooler to end the week - Showers and storms possible Monday and Tuesday nights Little change to the pattern over the past 24 hours with northwest flow aloft persisting across the Plains. Southerly surface winds and warming downslope winds will lead to above-normal temperatures in the low 80s this afternoon.
Broad upper level longwave troughing remains in place over the entire CONUS at the beginning of the short term period, with lower heights and stronger flow over the Midwest and New England. As this feature progresses, surface lee troughing will develop in eastern CO/WY, resulting in south to south-southwest winds increasing across southwest KS. Consequently, overnight lows will be noticeably warmer, with temperatures dropping only into the low to mid 50s. An approaching cold front will also add compressional heating to the mix, and all these factors will contribute to afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Current surface analysis places broad high over much of the eastern CONUS into the plains, with modest trough nudged to the east of the Rockies. Upper level analysis places ridge over the west coast with compact low over Arizona. Temperatures will be about 10 degrees above average as southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front will bring even milder temperatures than were seen yesterday over many locations. For tonight, evening starts out quiet, but clouds start to be on the increase overnight as a potent upper level trough pushes over the Rockies, and the affiliated cold front starts to nudge into northwest North Dakota.
- Cold front Tuesday could be accompanied by a few strong storms. This will set the stage for a potential line of strong storms along a cold front which will quickly track from western Minnesota in the early afternoon to western Wisconsin by mid to late evening. The large-scale pattern behind Tuesday's front will undergo a significant shift for the remainder of the week, with deep troughing and associated cooler weather settling deep into the eastern half of the country.
352 AM MDT Mon Oct 10 2022 There is a much stronger trough moving into British Columbia this morning which will put this stagnant pattern in motion for a few days. The latest H500 hand analysis map continues to show a large trough over eastern NOAM transitioning to a robust ridge over the EPac and the western CONUS coastline. Over the next 24 hours the upstream trough will be digging into the Northern Rockies along with well reflected front at the surface. This trough will then continue to dig southward while staying progressive and sweep through the CWA late in the day. There is very little moisture associated with this system so the frontal and trough passage look to move through mostly uneventful.
The low will fill to 985mb but still be quite capable of sending a strong Pacific cold front through wrn and ncntl Nebraska. The same data set shows the Pacific cold front tempering highs across the north Tuesday but maintains highs around 80 in the south. The models are in excellent agreement showing a closed h500mb low forming across the nrn Great Lakes this week and this low could still be operating across Ontario and Quebec the following week.
This will offer some weak offshore flow, allowing for a slightly warmer and more more dry afternoon for the more interior areas. High confidence on the return of stratus tonight, but to what level the cigs will be at is where the most uncertainty lies due to the passing short wave trough aloft. However, the higher confidence remains at IFR conditions with LIFR conditions possible in isolated shelter areas. The trough will also add slight perturbations to the boundary layer making drizzle possible along the immediate coastline early Tuesday morning. KSFO Bridge Approach. Moderate northwest winds prevailing over the coastal waters as high pressure remains over the Eastern Pacific.
With the precipitation and associated cloud cover, the high temperatures will be lower across this southwest-to-northeast corridor of higher precipitation chances than both to the north and south.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again today with lingering monsoonal moisture around an area of low pressure over northern Mexico. Additionally, guidance (particularly the U of A WRF) suggests expanding coverage into the the higher terrain of Yavapai County as well in the late afternoon and early evening.
Under clear skies, this warm air advection will lift high temperatures into the low to mid 70s with a few areas in the far eastern Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland areas possibly only seeing the upper 60s. This is almost 10 degrees warmer than yesterday's high temperatures, which is near normal for this time of year. Tonight, winds ease as surface winds slightly back towards the southeast as a weakly amplified upper ridge passes east over the CWA. This won't have much of an impact on weather as skies remain clear most the night, but behind the upper ridge, high level clouds will begin working into the region from the west. Dry weather will continue through Tuesday, though a breeze out of the south behind a high pressure dome over Virginia will lift afternoon temperatures well into the 70s to around 80.
A strong amplified upper ridge remains anchored over the West Coast maintaining weak boundary layer flow supporting an increasingly shallow marine layer. Offshore flow in the form of east- northeast winds may see gusts to 20 mph across exposed ridges in Humboldt and Del Norte Counties. Otherwise, model guidance shows upper- level ridging persisting across most of the West Coast and adjacent NERN PAC through mid to late week. The upper ridge that is positioned offshore will aid in clearing out and improving conditions as subsidence sets in this afternoon.
A slight chance of isolated light showers over the high Sierra today. Temperatures this week around 5-10 degrees cooler than last week, though still above normal. Upper low will drop south off the San Diego by Tuesday afternoon ending the precipitation chances with dry weather returning area wide. Upper low will then sit off the SoCal coast through the end of the week with ridging building over the top into NorCal this will keep things dry with warm Valley temperatures from the mid 80's to low 90's.
High pressure weakens a little and a dry cold front sweeps across the region on Tuesday, bringing a little cooler weather. A cold front extends west and sweeps across the region on Tuesday.
A fast moving cold front will then move toward and through the state on Tuesday. Main difference behind the front will be overnight lows, with most lower elevations falling into the lower 30s, while higher elevations and western valleys falling into the mid 20s. For the remainder of the week, a blocking feature will keep ridging across the northern Rockies, keeping temperatures seasonable, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s for most locations. The large upper low spinning in Quebec will keep steering flow from the northwest through the weekend, with only occasional higher clouds and no precipitation expected. A cold front will bring windy and cooler weather for Tuesday with a scattering of showers.
920 AM EDT Mon Oct 10 2022 High pressure will gradually move offshore as a backdoor cold front approach today, before dissipating Tuesday.
and Tuesday High pressure will drift to the east today, allowing surface winds to turn south-southeast and commence warm air advection across the western Great Lakes region. Despite mostly clear skies tonight, continued warm air advection on southerly surface winds will keep lows tonight a bit warmer across the region. Lows tonight are expected to fall into the lower to middle 40s across the area. An approaching low pressure system will increase southerly winds during the day on Tuesday, as 850 mb temperatures soar to 10 to 13 degrees. Therefore, will keep POPs on the low side during this period.
449 AM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022 Current surface analysis places broad high over much of the eastern CONUS into the plains, with modest trough nudged to the east of the Rockies. Upper level analysis places ridge over the west coast with compact low over Arizona. Temperatures will be about 10 degrees above average as southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front will bring even milder temperatures than were seen yesterday over many locations. For tonight, evening starts out quiet, but clouds start to be on the increase overnight as a potent upper level trough pushes over the Rockies, and the affiliated cold front starts to nudge into northwest North Dakota.
Although, there may be a few showers as the trough axis passes across the eastern Basin.
A pattern shift is underway today, however, as surface ridging slowly shifts east, yielding a return to S/SW flow and overall increase in moisture. Overnight lows will only fall into the upper 50s to around 60 degrees tonight and Tuesday night, which is around 5 to 10 degrees warmer than what we are seeing this morning. Meanwhile, by late tonight into Tuesday, a potent upper trough will dig into the northern Plains with southwesterly flow in the mid/upper levels beginning to overspread AR. Some showers/thunder may be seen across northwestern sections as WAA ramps up ahead of the approaching trough.
At the surface, high pressure is centered along the spine of the Appalachian Mountains and will continue to support mainly dry offshore flow across our area into the overnight hours.
The upper levels are currently in a split flow pattern with a broad upper trough/cutoff low over the southwestern CONUS. The better dynamics and moisture profiles will exist in our northern and western most counties where PoPs forecast to be the highest throughout the day. Cloud cover will also help to moderate low temperatures, keeping them in the low 60s.
Despite the cool start, temperatures will warm nicely today as upper ridging begins to build aloft.
High pressure will continue to dominate the short term forecast with only a few mid/high clouds expected to stream in later today, otherwise a dry and pleasant day is on tap! Minor adjustments made to hourly T/Td, otherwise the forecast for today is on track.
Morning temps around freezing observed across the San Luis Valley, with no change to the current Frost Advisory in effect through 9 AM this morning. Sunny skies along with a return to deeper westerly flow will support warmer temps today, with normal or just above normal temperatures likely today. Within this flow, will see a mid level trough swing through the region today and help support developing precip this afternoon. Afternoon showers with a few storms are expected to develop this afternoon mainly over the higher terrain. Highest moisture and instability look to be situated over the Continental Divide, especially the San Juan Range, and have kept the highest pops focused here. Min temps over the San Luis Valley still look to fall to around freezing once again tonight, with another Frost Advisory likely needed.
(Today through Tuesday) Much of the southeast remains situated at the southern periphery of a mid-level trough, placing us in a region of quasi-zonal flow aloft.
Weak low pressure has settled into the area along the eastern edge of a blocking ridge pattern that is holding court over the eastern Pacific. Storm chances are limited to 5-10%, so although it's a relatively low chance, lightning and thunder are possible for the highest elevations. Speaking of areas above 10,000 feet, there is some potential for light snow on the highest peaks, while some passes from Ebbett's Pass and south could see some wet road surfaces that may become slick due to slushy accumulations.
936 AM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022 Clear skies across the region as high pressure exits off to the northeast.
952 AM EDT Mon Oct 10 2022 High pressure and dry conditions will continue today. (Today through Tuesday) Much of the southeast remains situated at the southern periphery of a mid-level trough, placing us in a region of quasi-zonal flow aloft.
624 AM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022 (Today through Tuesday) A huge area of high pressure remains centered over the Appalachians from northern Alabama through West Virginia. This high pressure will remain in place today but begin to slide eastward tonight. Lows tonight will be in the low to middle 40s in the north to upper 40s in the southwest and low to middle 50s in the southeast.
This will offer some weak offshore flow, allowing for a slightly warmer and more more dry afternoon for the more interior areas.
656 AM EDT Mon Oct 10 2022 Dry weather and a warming trend can be expected before interruption via a mid-week cold front. Dry weather and further warming can be expected Tuesday as rising heights commence in response to an digging Great Plains trough.
An extensive cumulus field has already developed over the White Mountains region, and this is where the highest chance for showers and thunderstorms will be today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again today with lingering monsoonal moisture around an area of low pressure over northern Mexico. Additionally, guidance (particularly the U of A WRF) suggests expanding coverage into the the higher terrain of Yavapai County as well in the late afternoon and early evening.
This will cause dew points to increase from the 40s and 50s this evening to the low 60s to near 70 by tomorrow.
319 PM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022 After a dry and mainly clear night, a cold front will push through Tuesday brining breezy winds and a few showers. Weak ridge continues to bring clear skies across the region this afternoon. Tuesday sees a cold front push across the region from northwest to southeast during the morning and early afternoon hours. With the front will come slightly cooler temperatures, with highs in the 50s northwest to 60s southeast.
/29 (Now through Tuesday) Weak upper level ridging shifts eastward across the region during the period while a large upper trof evolves over the central states. Highs on Tuesday will be in the lower 80s at the coast and well inland, with mid 80s for most of the remaining portion except for upper 80s over a portion of south central Alabama.
Canadian high pressure will otherwise build across and offshore the southern Mid Atlantic through Tuesday.
220 PM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022 Tonight and Tuesday: Dry and slightly warmer. Mid afternoon surface analysis had a 1026mb high over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys that was ridging back to the southwest across our CWA. This will result in cooler than normal temperatures across the eastern half of the CWA again. There will be a few more clouds around Tuesday but enough insolation to help temperatures top out a degree or two warmer than today and above normal again.
Looking into Tuesday, a cold front still looks to push across the region Tuesday morning into the afternoon.
(This evening through Tuesday) Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to linger this evening and through the overnight hours as the base of a mid-level trough pivots through the TX/OK Panhandle.
We're sitting in the low to mid 60s around the Memphis area, expecting to continue gradually warming to around 80F this afternoon.
Overnight lows will be warmer along the Coteau because of the breezy conditions. A cold front will move through the region on Tuesday. A deep, reinforcing upper trough will move in just behind the front, as well. These expected values are on the high end of guidance, too, as used NBM 90th to capture the caa forcing. Generally, there is very little low level or mid level moisture to work with, but cooler evening/overnight temps and the additional push from the ample energy in the upper trough could result in a sprinkle or light shower, especially across the east.
The Florida Keys and coastal waters are sitting on the southern periphery of the sub tropical Atlantic ridge, with the axis of the ridge cutting across the southern portion of the Florida Peninsula. The ridge extends upwards through most of the boundary layer (600mb or so).
Timing of showers moving in with a cold front tonight/Tuesday, and wind speeds Tue.
1202 PM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022 Clear skies across the region as high pressure exits off to the northeast.
A trof will continue to push southeast late this afternoon into the evening, however moisture will be fairly limited so no showers are expected as the trof moves through. As for temperatures Tuesday, a cold front will move in from the northwest bringing a cooler Canadian air mass into the area. The area most affected by the cold front will be the northwest Sandhills where the front should move into the area by afternoon. The rest of the forecast area should be able to reach maximum or mostly near maximum daytime heating before the front moves through, with the warmest temperatures across southwest into north central Nebraska where highs will reach the low 80s.
1206 PM EDT Mon Oct 10 2022 Dry weather and a warming trend can be expected before interruption via a mid-week cold front. Dry weather and further warming can be expected Tuesday as rising heights commence in response to an digging Great Plains trough.
Winds will generally be form a southerly direction through tomorrow as a trough of low pressure sits along the KS/CO border.
Today, temperatures have climbed a bit warmer than forecast, with many locations in the upper 70s and a few stations reporting temperatures around 80 degrees. A fairly strong cold front will then sweep across the area late Tuesday afternoon through the evening, bringing with it a surge of gusty northwest winds (potentially up to 40 MPH). Behind the front, some models show bands of light rain develop near and ahead of the deepening upper trough.
(This evening through Tuesday) A weak upper level trough remains across the western CONUS and northern Mexico this afternoon. Expect overnight lows in the lower 60s. On Tuesday, the upper level trough across the Desert Southwest will weaken, with an upper level low off the southern California coast. Expect highs in the low to mid 80s.
(This evening through Tuesday) Currently high pressure extends from the mid-Atlantic states down into the northwest gulf region as a stalled front remains draped over the central gulf.
The upper-level low pressure system will persist to our south later this week into the weekend and could bring renewed chances for precipitation this weekend in our southern areas, though mainly in the mountains and desert.
254 PM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022 The main impact in the short term will be a cold frontal passage on Tuesday, bringing a wind switch to the northwest and gusty winds. Look for cooler highs in the Devils Lake region, with 70s expected in the Valley and points eastward.
218 PM EDT Mon Oct 10 2022 High pressure will gradually move offshore as a backdoor cold front approaches this evening, before dissipating Tuesday.
Cold front in western Canada will clip our Idaho zones overnight tonight, then pass into MT and WY Tuesday. Front will bring scattered clouds followed by breezy northwest winds and slightly cooler temperatures Tuesday.