Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper level ridge is centered over the Mississippi Valley region. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will move through the area from the northwest though the day today. Stronger storms are expected to develop later this afternoon across portions of northern Kansas along the cold front. An isolated strong or severe storm cannot be ruled out along and south of I-80 in closer proximity to the cold front. On Monday, general flow pattern will shift from the southwest to the northwest as the upper level ridge migrates westward toward the four corners region. Given the passage of the previous day's cold front, temperatures will be in the 80s across the area. Upper level flow will continue from the northwest as the ridge intensifies over the Rocky Mountains through the week.
636 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020 High pressure will cover the region through Monday.
629 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020 High pressure and dry conditions will remain across the region through the rest of the weekend.
A cold front will push in from the northwest late tonight, and across central Illinois on Monday. 06z surface map indicated high pressure off the southeast U. coast, while low pressure and a frontal complex stretched from central MN back into SD. Aloft, evening U/A data showed a strong ridge centered over the eastern Plains, while an upper trof was advancing into the northern Plains. The main weather story today will be hot and humid conditions, as mid 70s dewpoints combine with highs in the lower 90s to produce 100-105F peak heat indices. With the slow approach of the cold front, will limit likely pops to areas northwest of the IL River tonight. The front is forecast to stall near/south of the Ohio Valley Tues/Wed, while weak high pressure builds into the Midwest.
423 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Temperatures across the Northern Rockies are projected to warm significantly for the coming week, as Four Corners high pressure becomes established over the Desert Southwest.
518 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Water vapor shows upper trof over the northern Rockies/Plains with upper low over eastern SASK. At the surface, cold front has moved through all but far south central SD. Best focus for additional convection today will be across far south central SD invof the cold front, and across northeast WY where return flow will result in MLCAPE to around 500J/kg. Dry and slightly warmer conditions expected Monday as upper ridge begins to amplify over the central/northern Rockies.
Warm and dry air under a building ridge will move in today. This will bring slightly warmer temperatures and dry conditions.
Cooler and less humid conditions are expected today and Monday. Early this morning, a closed mid-level low was moving into central Manitoba with a cold front at the surface pushing through the eastern Dakotas. With post-frontal high pressure settling in, cooler temperatures and mostly dry conditions are expected today. Monday should be a near repeat under the persistent northwest flow as the synoptic pattern becomes highlighted by a large closed low over the Hudson Bay. Highs should push into the mid 80s in the southwest as ridging and low level warm air advection begins to develop.
However the mid level trough and increasing moisture will bring cloudiness along with showers/thunderstorms moving in across the south and interior later this morning then spreading northward during the afternoon with scattered to numerous coverage. High pressure remains just north of the area through tonight with southeast and south winds. The high pressure settles into central FL by mid week with a relaxing gradient.
611 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020 High pressure moves overhead today and will provide dry, but increasingly hot and humid weather through Monday.
Weak upper level low pressure center continues to drift around the CENCAL area. This feature will once again trigger afternoon and evening thunderstorms across the High country of the Sierra.
Some stronger storms will be possible this afternoon and evening as we'll have 2000-3000 J/kg of CAPE, 20 knots of shear, and some dry air in the low levels. Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the low 80s and dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s.
452 AM PDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Slightly cooler than normal temps will continue through Monday with temperatures about 5 degrees below normal around the area.
As for temperatures, with a late arrival of the cold front, afternoon highs are expected to reach the lower/mid 90s(F) again today. Rain cooled air combined with northerly winds behind the front will drop lows into the 60s(F) for much of the area tonight with the lower 70s(F) still possible in south central Kansas. Ongoing shower/thunderstorm activity is likely early Monday as a cold front sags farther south into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma.
Sfc cold front and 500 mb short wave moving into central MN at 08z taking the rain and t-storms with it.
An upper ridge building in Monday will suppress activity however additional showers and thunderstorms are expected during the middle of the week as increasing moisture and a frontal boundary move into the area. Through the day upper level ridging will be over the region with weak southerly flow at the surface.
632 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Satellite and radar this morning show convection continuing to fire (especially for the Hwy 14 corridor and areas east of I-29), mainly in tandem with the low level jet and warm air advection at 850mb. Greatest threats would be wind gusts to 60 mph and hail to quarter sized (although this will be a bit more difficult with the freezing level near 14kft).
Ahead of this front, another sultry day is expected with highs in the low 90s and surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s.
936 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020 High pressure moves overhead today and will provide dry, but increasingly hot and humid weather through Monday.
The center of Hanna will continue to push to the southwest into northeast Mexico and should continue to weaken as it encounters the higher terrain. Meanwhile, a weak upper level low pressure will begin to develop just off the coast of south central Louisiana through the day Sunday. showers and thunderstorms will once again be possible, peaking by the afternoon hours, as the aforementioned weak upper level low slowly meanders into central Louisiana through the day. Sunday night will see temperatures in the lower 70s across the area, which is right around where they should be for this time of the year.
742 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Building high pressure will maintain dry and warmer weather into Monday.
230 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020 An upper level trough is centered over southern Canada and extends down into the Northern Plains which is dampening the upper ridge over West Texas and southeast New Mexico. A cold front associated with the trough over southern Canada will push into the Texas panhandle on Monday with showers and thunderstorms expected to develop along this front.
130 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020 In the wake of the cold front that moved through the region last night and early this morning, high pressure continues to build into the region and becomes the dominate feature through the short term forecast. A weak, nearly stationary warm front may set-up from southwestern into central South Dakota Monday night. No major impacts should result from this other than keeping temperatures a couple degrees warmer Monday night for central South Dakota.
327 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020 The area will remain between high pressure to the east and low pressure inland through the week. Atlantic high pressure will remain the dominant feature at the surface tonight. Aloft, a weakness in the upper ridge will meander off the Florida/Georgia coast. Low temperatures will be within a few degrees of normal, generally ranging from the lower 70s inland to upper 70s/around 80 at the immediate coast.
Focus will turn to the cold front currently into NW KS and associated convection.
134 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the sern U. up into the upper Great Lakes this morning and a trough moving across the northern plains. This trough heads east into the upper Great Lakes by this evening and then starts to slowly dig southeast tonight.
1116 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020 High pressure will maintain dry and warmer weather into the early portion of Monday.
As the day progresses on Monday, expect a cold front dropping through Illinois and Indiana to finally approach our area of responsibility. By Monday night, the cold front associated with the closed low over Ontario is forecast to begin pushing into the southern IN/northern KY region.
1108 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020 The trough continues its trek across central Canada, leaving building ridging across the Rockies during the next 48 hours. This will lead to another warm day today, while limiting any rainfall convection to the higher elevations of the Winds and Absarokas. The ridge continues to stretch across the central third of the state, setting up southwesterly flow for western WY for Monday. Central WY areas more under the ridge will see warmer temperatures a few degrees above Sunday highs. Areas to the west of the ridge axis will see slowly increasing moisture starting to feed into the region, helping improve chances for showers and thunderstorms for the mountain ranges of western WY, along with areas in the vicinity of the Uinta range in NE UT, during the later afternoon.
Temperatures are running slightly warmer than expected across most of the Midsouth. Expect highs in the lower 90s with showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon and evening hours. The ridge over the area gives way to a deeper trough that will build into the Great Lakes late Monday.
Weak upper low over the mid-south progged to move slowly east but remain west of us Mon night. SNELSON High pressure and weak steering aloft will continue to drive the afternoon convective pattern similar to the one we have seen for the better part of a month now.
Precipitation may linger over the southern half of the forecast area through Monday afternoon, and with the rain and cloud cover, high temperatures tomorrow will be notably cooler in the lower to middle 80s.
Showers and thunderstorms started much later today in the early afternoon and were mostly developing across the higher elevations of the plateau and eastern mountains with a few in southwest Virginia.
because the sounding is a little more unstable that 24 hours ago plus the upper level ridge is forecast to weaken ever so slightly.
Moist easterly upslope flow at the low levels and mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km contributed to a corridor of 500-1000 j/kg MLCAPE from the southern NE Panhandle into east-central WY. After a cooler Sunday, temperatures will warm into the 80s to around 90 Monday afternoon.
With low convective temperatures in the low to mid 80s, expect activity over the coastal waters to gradually decrease for the remainder of this morning, with activity beginning to increase over land areas during the afternoon. Nocturnal showers and a few storms are being driven inland from the gulf and into the coastal locations between Hanna and a ridge of high pressure that is centered over the southeast states.
A cold front is currently located across northeast Colorado and into Nebraska. In addition to the high PWAT, lift along the front will aid in extremely efficient rainfall production in the storms. Highs tomorrow will be obviously cooler will all the precipitation and lingering cloud cover.
Cooler and drier weather will return for the rest of the week. By 03Z-ish remnant vorticity shred and associated prefrontal trough will approach SW MI and support some decaying convection in our far NW. Temperatures and humidity level returns to much more comfortable levels as large upper low settles into eastern Canada and promotes (generally) a more northerly component to low level flow. Still watching Wed/Thu period for the potential for a few showers as higher theta-e bubble peels off Central Plains ridge and intersects weak convergent boundary.
However, an upper level trough extends out from this system across the northwest Gulf and into the Gulf south states.
137 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020 High pressure and dry conditions will remain across the region through the rest of the weekend.
110 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020 High pressure will maintain dry and warmer weather into the early portion of Monday.
Forecast Confidence is Medium Starting to see a few showers pop along the outflow boundary/surface cold front extending from northeast Iowa to Green Bay.
1249 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Another hot and humid afternoon is in the forecast as highs will climb into the lower to middle 90s across the region. This pattern change is in response to the flattening of the upper level ridge.
254 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the sern U. up into the upper Great Lakes this morning and a trough moving across the northern plains. This trough heads east into the upper Great Lakes by this evening and then starts to slowly dig southeast tonight.
High pressure will maintain mainly sunny skies across the region today. Significantly cooler temperatures are expected with highs in the mid 70s north to lower 80s south. Cooler and less humid conditions are expected today and Monday. Early this morning, a closed mid-level low was moving into central Manitoba with a cold front at the surface pushing through the eastern Dakotas. With post-frontal high pressure settling in, cooler temperatures and mostly dry conditions are expected today. Monday should be a near repeat under the persistent northwest flow as the synoptic pattern becomes highlighted by a large closed low over the Hudson Bay. Highs should push into the mid 80s in the southwest as ridging and low level warm air advection begins to develop.
/Tonight through Sunday/ As of 19z GOES water vapor imagery depicted a large trough traversing across south central Canada. At the surface a weak cold front stretched from near the arrowhead of MN southwestward into the central High Plains, bisecting northwest Iowa as it slowly tracks south. Any shower or thunderstorm activity will still be efficient rainfall producers given the highly saturated environment. The upper trough slides east toward central Ontario tomorrow. The low PoPs remain appropriate until models better align.
The upper level ridge will continue weakening slightly on Monday, helping cause another repeat of today with diurnally driven showers and storms. A large upper level low will move through the Great Lakes and the southern U. ridge axis will be shunted southward.
133 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Upper flow over the region is zonal, between a trough to the north and high pressure to the south. Transient upper ridging moves over the northern plains Monday, resulting in a warmer and mostly dry day. Meanwhile, aforementioned low pressure will move ashore and approach the region. Warm air advection ahead of the low will help temps rise back into the lower 90s.
With light winds and low dewpoints in the 40s across the west, we think the lows will be below the NBM guidance, especially west. This appears in good agreement with the lower end Min temperatures on the ECM guidance.
A cold front tonight will bring the return of more "UP-like" temperatures and humidities as CAA brings a period of gusty winds tonight. Could see some beach hazard concerns for Alger county behind the cold front with a prolonged period of NW winds between 15 to 20 knots.
A cold front will move into the region Monday, bringing showers and thunderstorms to the area. This boundary will settle into the Ohio Valley and remain there for much of the week, producing chances for thunderstorms many days, with the highest chances in the south. Should see temps drop only into the low 70s overnight owing to increasing cloud cover and high dewpoints. Precipitation efficiency should be fairly high with a freezing level around 14kft and precipitable water values potentially in excess of 2 inches.
Most of the Midsouth is in the low 90s at 2 pm with the potential to warm another degree or two. Temperatures may be a degree or so cooler tomorrow as the ridge begins to break down.
Aloft, a large trough centered over central Canada was working across the Dakotas. As the trough moves eastward, the surface front will continue to advance south, entering northern Kansas this evening. Lingering showers and cloud cover will keep conditions cool (relatively speaking) through the day with highs in the low 80s. General upper level troughing will dominate our pattern through the week - quite the shift from our recent large scale ridging. Thus, conditions are expected to be much cooler this week with highs remaining in the 80s.
1208 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Widely scattered -TSRA expected through 27/01z, with southeast sections expected to have the highest spatial coverage.
257 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020 The trough continues its trek across central Canada, leaving building ridging across the Rockies during the next 36 hours. This will lead to another warm afternoon, while limiting any rainfall convection to the higher elevations of the Winds, Absarokas, and Bighorn Mountains. The ridge continues to stretch across the central third of the state, setting up southwesterly flow for western WY for Monday. Central WY areas more under the ridge will see warmer temperatures a few degrees above today's highs. Areas to the west of the ridge axis will see slowly increasing moisture starting to feed into the region, helping improve chances for showers and thunderstorms for the mountain ranges of western WY, along with areas in the vicinity of the Uinta range in NE UT, during the later afternoon.
240 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Mid afternoon surface observations show a weak cold front is situated roughly from Spencer to Sioux City Iowa and continues to progress southeast through the region. The axis of the upper trough tracking east through the Canadian prairie provinces will progress through the Northern Plains tonight, spreading notably drier air into the region for a pleasant Monday. The passage of the upper trough places the region in drier and milder northwest flow aloft.
827 AM PDT Sun Jul 26 2020 A shallower marine layer will result in warmer weather again today, especially inland as the morning low clouds evaporate. The weak trough aloft will keep us seasonally warm through Monday, with night and morning low clouds west of the mountains. Additional warming is expected this week as a strong ridge builds over the Southwest. Inland, skies were clear, but clouds were observed moving NW from the Lower Colorado River Valley into Imperial County. 5C inversion based near 1400 FT MSL, this is 1000 FT lower than yesterday! The sfc pressure gradients were weak and holding onshore to the lower deserts, but had become neutral to the northern deserts. With the marine layer much thinner and weak gradients, it will be much warmer in the valleys than previously thought.
Speaking of heating, ridging aloft should continue to build in, which should hamper most chances of rain for West Central Texas. (Monday Night through Sunday) Upper level ridge settles into the southwest US early in the week, with a weak front still set to sag into the Panhandle. Stronger northwest flow aloft develop for the middle and end of the week but ridge may be just a tad too strong.
After the passage of yesterday's cold front we are back to near normal temperatures and dew points.
An area of low pressure aloft off the coast of Southern California will open up into a trough of low pressure tonight. An upper-level trough of low pressure will progress northeastward through Central California Monday.
141 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020 18Z Surface observations and RAP analysis indicated pre frontal trough across the southeast corner of the forecast area. Observations as well as visible satellite indicate cold front steadily advancing south and was located between Wray and St Francis. Already have convective initation along trough and with continued forcing along front expect storms to steadily increase in coverage through the afternoon. Fog, low stratus and cooler temperatures will build into the area in the morning which will diminish precipitation threat. Long range guidance suggests that WNW to NNW flow aloft will prevail over the Central/Northern Plains in this period -- on the N-NE periphery of an amplifying upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest/Intermountain West.
Through this evening, mesoscale guidance focuses most convection west of a subtle boundary that will extend roughly from the Cay Sal Bank to the Seven Mile Bridge vicinity. Multiple CAMS models show a scenario involving afternoon convection near Havana moving north across the western Straits this evening, most likely affecting the Gulf waters west of the Lower Keys but possibly clipping the Lower Keys. A seasonable subtropical high pressure ridge axis will align east-west across Central Florida for most of the week ahead, leading to a continuation of prevailing moderate easterly breezes.
231 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Relatively quiet weather is expected across the region for the entire forecast period as upper-level ridging will be the dominant feature.
229 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Morning stratus is breaking up quickly this afternoon as the cold front continues to push southeast away from the area. Dew points will drop from the low to mid 70s into the 50s this evening, which is where they will stay until further notice. Weak ridging is in place over the Rockies and High Plains while a southwesterly jet is flowing onshore to the central California coast.
Guidance has trended cooler and we are half sold with an average of persistence for good measure. Highs continue near 90 and lows in the lower to middle 70s.
233 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Subtropical ridge axis just north of the state this afternoon settles into central FL by late Mon. as an inverted mid level trough over the area dampens out Mon. This moisture along with the decaying mid level trough will support scattered-numerous showers and storms. Tue through next Sun: The subtropical ridge meanders across central or south-central FL during the period although it weakens toward the weekend as mid level troughing with a frontal boundary extends down into the Mid-Atlantic states and low pressure approaches the southeast Bahamas or eastern Cuba.
214 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Dry conditions exist across our cwa under building ridge aloft. Strong upper level ridge will bring dry/warmer conditions through Monday night, with many places seeing temps back to the lower 90s tomorrow. JKL Mid week still looks on track to be cooler and wetter.
Otherwise partly cloudy skies with low temperatures in the lower-mid 70s.
154 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Surface analysis at 1 pm has a cold front sagging southeast, currently extending from central WI into northeast IA. Radar pretty quiet right now but expecting a broken line of showers/storms to form along the cold front as it progresses southeast through the rest of the area. Front and associated storms expected to push south of the area this evening as refreshing Canadian high pressure pushes in. Cooler/much drier airmass over the area through Monday with northwest winds in the the 10 to 20 mph range. The upper level low currently over central Manitoba will track slowly to the east allowing the upper level ridge to build back over the northern Rockies into the High Plains.
An upper ridge building in Monday will suppress activity however additional showers and thunderstorms are expected during the middle of the week as increasing moisture and a frontal boundary move into the area. Weak surface ridging across the region. Persistence with overnight minimum temperatures in the low to mid 70s with mainly high thin clouds after midnight advecting in from the coast.
Deepening Great Lakes trough will tend to nudge this band of deep moisture southward into our area tomorrow and tomorrow night.