Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
403 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020 A narrow high pressure ridge remains in place for the the lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast today. Weak high pressure not enough to keep a few showers from popping up over the northern tier of the state this morning. Winds are generally very light under the ridge, and mid and upper level moisture streaming clouds across the region ahead of a developing storm system to the west. Models have developed some showers and thunderstorms out across the state later this afternoon ahead of the low. Continued easterly flow because of the surface ridging in the eastern Gulf also assists in delaying any theta-e advection ahead of the low. Thunderstorm development north of the boundary will be a concern for wind and hail, elevated and tapping into cooler air.
Dry and warmer weather is in store for the coming week. Generally westerly flow aloft will bring dry and much warmer weather to the Northland this week.
A weak pressure pattern and flat ridge aloft will allow for mostly sunny skies by this afternoon and another very warm day. Near record high temperatures are expected again at Leesburg and Sanford this afternoon, reaching the lower 90s for the interior and mid 80s along the coast. Area will be between two weak high pressure centers over the Gulf and west Atlantic, which will keep relatively light (around 5-10 knots) and variable winds over the waters in the morning. However, isolated to scattered showers are currently forecast ahead of an approaching weak cold front into the evening of the 31st, so any additional rainfall before midnight on Tuesday evening could change these current rankings.
Temperatures will generally range from the lower 70s south and east of Tucson to the middle/upper 70s across the lower deserts.
626 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020 Under s/w ridging aloft, it should be mild and mainly dry for the day across the region. However, a weak pv anomaly is expected to push through the ridge late this afternoon and into tonight. A few showers may linger into Tuesday morning, but most of the day Tuesday should be dry and mild out ahead of an advancing cold front.
604 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020 Dry high pressure will build over the area today with continued above normal temperatures. A low pressure system will cross the area Tuesday and will bring widespread showers and a chance of thunderstorms.
317 AM PDT Mon Mar 30 2020 High pressure over California will bring dry weather with a warming trend through Tuesday.
Instead, cyclonic flow aloft will persist as a long-wave trough persists over the West. While we cannot rule out a few interior locations reaching the lower 70s this week, temperatures generally will remain near to slightly below seasonal averages.
622 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020 A quiet, drier start to the new week as high pressure builds in from the west. Upper level ridge will start to give way to the influence of a west coast trough, with the first bit of energy ejecting out of this feature, shifting across the Upper Mississippi River valley Wed.
Had to adjust hourly temps however as gradient winds are strong enough this morning that our decoupled and cooler valleys have mixed out a bit earlier than expected. Surface ridging building in from the west, along with relatively flat flow aloft, will result in fair weather today.
/issued 418 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020/ (Today and Tonight) An upper level trough will move across the Southern Rockies this morning and into the Central/Southern Plains late this afternoon and early evening.
1014 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020 Deep layer mean ridging persists across the Western Caribbean. The northern extent of this ridge complex has been squashed over the past 24 hours, eroded by the cyclone over the Great Lakes. Temperatures across the island chain are near 80 with dewpoints in the lower 70s.
418 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020 (Today and Tonight) An upper level trough will move across the Southern Rockies this morning and into the Central/Southern Plains late this afternoon and early evening.
728 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020 Aviation Low pressure will be pulling away and showers will be ending today.
The backside of a passing upper level trough will increase the mid level moisture and with low level convergence forecast near the CO/KS border very late in the afternoon expect increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures are forecast to reach the low 50s to around 60.
Conditions will further improve across the western sites overnight as a weak cold front pushes through. Convection is expected to increase throughout the day today as an upper level trough moves from the Four Corners region into the Southern Plains, sending a weak cold front through the area overnight into early Tuesday morning. A warm front pushing inland from the coastal waters today will also lead to a steady increase in moisture and instability across the region, further enhancing the convective potential. Highs today will range from the low to mid 80s, with lows mainly in the 60s. Clearing skies and warm temperatures can be expected on Tuesday with highs approaching the lower 90s across the Rio Grande Plains.
Mid level heights will build today as the northern trough continues eastward and the next one crosses the southern Rockies. The sun and warmer temps aloft will allow us to reach the mid 50s to lower 60s area wide this afternoon. Similar conditions are expected Tuesday except cloud cover will increase and temps may be a degree or two cooler than today. A trough will head east across the northern Rockies and reach the northern Plains Tuesday. A cold front will reach western MN by Tuesday night with a leading piece of energy.
507 AM MDT Mon Mar 30 2020 08z surface analysis had low over southwest SK with a trough into central CO. Modest return flow over the CWA as weak upper ridge shifts east.
A cold front will move across the area late in the TAF period bringing the rain to an end from northwest to southeast for at least portions of the area. This will also bring a warm front northward towards the I-20 corridor this evening and into the overnight hours. However, it is still very uncertain how much surface-based convection will develop in the warm sector south of the warm front. While convection north of the warm front will be largely elevated, any storms immediately along the warm front could also be severe. Thus, any surface-based convection that develops along the warm front will be in an environment where low-level shear will be maximized and more than enough to support a threat for isolated tornadoes.
Dry and warmer weather returns to the district today with little change expected throughout the work week. Radar imagery shows precipitation has ended across the district as upper trough exits east towards the Four Corners region. An upper trough will drop down over the Pacific Northwest today and essentially remain over that region through the week. Temperatures will be several degrees warmer today with afternoon highs forecast right around climatological normals for the end of March.
After a cool night, with lows in the 30s and 40s, a fine day will follow tomorrow as surface ridging traverses the region. The ridge will provide light winds and highs near seasonal averages.
The upper trough passing just north of the region today giving us our fire weather concerns will move east of the area overnight.
1201 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020 Updated aviation section for 18z taf issuance High pressure will move across the region today.
Surface analysis this afternoon places a warm front along the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Short term models including Convective Allowing Model Solutions (CAMs) indicate rain showers should continue tonight into Tuesday morning in association with an area of low pressure moving across Central Mississippi.
231 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020 After a cloudy, cool end to the weekend, today featured the welcome return of abundant sunshine along with much lighter winds due to high pressure ridging across the area. With high pressure building into the region, mostly sunny skies are expected Tuesday.
308 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020 A weak area of low pressure will then move across the southern states on Tuesday, perhaps bringing some light rain to northern Kentucky and far southern Ohio. As the low level flow veers to a north then to the northeast, stratocumulus clouds will thicken once again and shift to the south and southwest. Lows will range from the lower to mid 30s north to near 40 south.
A weak cold front will push through the area tonight; combined with increased moisture and instability could create a better chance for some rain and isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain above normal even in the northerly winds behind the cold front.
330 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020 High pressure over the region will weaken overnight. A low pressure system will cross the area Tuesday and will bring widespread showers and a chance of thunderstorms.
223 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020 High pressure over the region will weaken overnight. A low pressure system will cross the area Tuesday and will bring widespread showers and a chance of thunderstorms.
RH recovery may be a bit slower, especially on the ridgetops. Temperatures will be quite cooler, generally in the 50s with the clouds and precipitation.
Upper low over southwest Ontario will slowly fill and drift southeast over NY state to near NYC by 12Z Tuesday. Overnight, enough cold air aloft combined with nighttime boundary layer cooling will allow for some light mixed rain and snow over the highest elevations. A deepening low will track well south of the area in the Carolinas Tuesday night will extend an inverted trough northward into western PA.
1157 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020 A quiet, drier start to the new week as high pressure builds in from the west. Upper level ridge will start to give way to the influence of a west coast trough, with the first bit of energy ejecting out of this feature, shifting across the Upper Mississippi River valley Wed.
Chances of SHRA/isolated TSRA will increase overnight tonight into early Tuesday morning in advance of a cold front.
242 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020 An upper trough will bring cooler conditions to the region for much of the week.
Main adjustments were to sky grids to adjust for thicker mid and high level cloudiness currently streaming into the region as low pressure begins to develop to our southwest. Had to adjust hourly temps however as gradient winds are strong enough this morning that our decoupled and cooler valleys have mixed out a bit earlier than expected. Surface ridging building in from the west, along with relatively flat flow aloft, will result in fair weather today.
Under s/w ridging aloft, it should be mild and mainly dry for the day across the region. However, a weak pv anomaly is expected to push through the ridge late this afternoon and into tonight. A few showers may linger into Tuesday morning, but most of the day Tuesday should be dry and mild out ahead of an advancing cold front.
Dry and warmer weather is in store for the coming week.
351 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020 The focus in the short term is the upper level trof that will be passing through the Central Plains this evening and tonight. Chose to go on the warmer side for highs on Tuesday due to the south/southwesterly flow and clearing skies.
326 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020 A low pressure system north of the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon will slowly track southeast to the New England coastal waters by Tuesday while weakening.
316 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020 The region will be situated between high pressure to the east and low pressure approaching from the west tonight. The low and associated frontal boundary will track across all but the far eastern part of the area Tuesday night. Lows on Tuesday night will range from the mid 30s northwest to the lower 40s east.
255 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020 The upper level ridge which allowed for today's clear skies and warm temperatures will move eastward this evening as a vorticity maximum moves through the northern stream jet.
Widespread MVFR/IFR in rain and snow showers with snow levels near 5-6 kft today, dropping to 3-5 kft behind a cold front this evening. A few thunderstorms may also develop over the higher terrain this afternoon.
1240 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020 Brisk west winds will continue today as a deep low pressure area drifts towards New England and slowly weakens. It will be somewhat cool today and Tuesday, and then warm towards the end of the week before another cold front and rain arrives over the weekend. Some areas across the southwest may see some clearing during the first part of the night tonight, which could for enough radiational cooling for temperatures to fall below freezing. Otherwise, lows will be in the low to mid 30s. High pressure will move into the area on Tuesday as a southern stream low crosses into the southern Appalachians.
201 PM MDT Mon Mar 30 2020 The open trough aloft moving east of the Rockies across the southern and Central High Plains region this afternoon will continue east over the southern plains states tonight.
1108 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020 Dry high pressure will build over the area today with continued above normal temperatures. A low pressure system will cross the area Tuesday and will bring widespread showers and a chance of thunderstorms.
A cold front will sweep across the region this morning followed by increasingly windy westerly winds through this evening before gradually decreasing overnight.
254 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020 Clouds will continue to lower and thicken tonight ahead of a low pressure system over the Plains. A rather compact 500 mb low will move east, almost directly over the lower Ohio Valley on Tuesday. Tuesday night will be clearing and cold as high pressure builds eastward into our region.
Return flow on the backside of the ridge has caused surface winds to response more to the east and southeast, which will eventually be responsible for some moisture influx into the area. As the mid level wave responsible for the light precipitation moves off into the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys mid level ridging will become the predominant weather influencer for the middle part of the week.
1028 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020 High pressure will dominate the Midwest over the next few days bringing dry conditions. Temperatures should be a little cooler Tuesday and then slowly warm through the rest of the week.
326 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020 High pressure over the region will weaken overnight. A low pressure system will cross the area Tuesday and will bring widespread showers and a chance of thunderstorms.
It will be somewhat cool today and Tuesday, and then warm towards the end of the week before another cold front and rain arrives over the weekend. Breezy northwest winds diminish tonight as the surface pressure gradient relaxes in response to surface ridging overspreading the area.
307 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020 A cool anticyclone continues to slide across the Upper Midwest in the wake of the weekend's storm. Guidance in consensus showing the cyclone pushing east-southeast through Arkansas and into the Deep South into tomorrow morning. With clouds around for at least part of the day and winds generally remaining out of the north, temps tomorrow will be noticeably cooler than the last few days. Overnight temps are likely to fall well into the 30s, with many locations approaching freezing. BSH As we move into the second half of the week, we'll be beneath an upper ridge sandwiched between deep lows over SW Canada and off the coast of the eastern CONUS.
A vigorous mid level short wave trof moving east of the Rockies this afternoon will continue to track eastward over the middle part of the country with a closed upper low developing just west of the mid MS River Valley by 12z Tue then weakening and lifting out further to the east over Western North Carolina by late Tue afternoon. The weak boundary is progged to move inland this evening and overnight as a warm front with most of the forecast area in the warm section around sunrise Tue morning. Temperatures will continue to be above seasonal norms this afternoon and most of tonight returning to more seasonal levels in the wake of the cold front that moves across the area by late Tue afternoon and early evening.
127 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020 Aviation Low pressure will be pulling away and showers will be ending today.
1114 AM MDT Mon Mar 30 2020 08z surface analysis had low over southwest SK with a trough into central CO. Modest return flow over the CWA as weak upper ridge shifts east.
223 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020 An upper level low over western Canada will be the driving force for the upcoming week with several disturbances expected to roate around the base of this upper low. Showers and storms associated with a passing short wave trough will increase during the evening and overnight hours across much of the area. Hi res guidance is suggesting a mesoscale high pressure building in quickly behind this exiting system which will aide in skies clearing Tuesday afternoon and temperatures rising to be at or a few degrees below normal.
328 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020 High pressure remains in charge across the region tonight through the day Tuesday. Mostly clear skies will help temperatures fall into the lower to middle 20s over much of the area tonight. As the high pressure ridge axis passes through the region this evening, easterly winds should intensify, leading to a period of on-shore flow. This will result in cooler temperatures by Lake Superior into Tuesday. Tuesday will remain dry, with some cooler temperatures by the lake.
Places north of the Parkways will see a lesser chance of rain than the south, but deep mid-level moisture will likely seed-feed the lower cloud deck resulting in very light rain/drizzle/sprinkles beginning Tuesday late morning/early afternoon. Increasing clouds will likely suppress radiational cooling, resulting in morning mins in the low to mid 40s with some in southern Indiana dropping into the high 30s. Expect cooler temperatures tomorrow as rain and thick cloud cover dampen diurnal effects, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Ceilings are expected to fall into the low MVFR to IFR category during this time.
451 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020 An upper trough will bring cooler conditions to the region for much of the week.
221 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020 High pressure will dominate the Midwest over the next few days bringing dry conditions. Temperatures should be a little cooler Tuesday and then slowly warm through the rest of the week.
1001 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020 Warm front this morning is lingering just along the coast. A few showers are already showing up on radar, and as an upper level disturbance moves out of the southern Rockies, low level southerly flow will increase and lift the warm front across the forecast area this afternoon. The system will quickly move east and cross the Lower Mississippi Valley by early Tuesday. This will swing another cold front through the region with scattered to numerous showers and some thunderstorms possible. Cape looks limited at this time, however shear looks sufficient to produce an organized storm or two tonight, but mainly well inland and closest to the area of low pressure.
An upper trough is currently moving eastward across New Mexico and west Texas.
1253 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020 The western flank of low pressure centered in southern Ontario remains over Lower Michigan this afternoon. Cooler air across the Great Lakes and late March daytime heating are also contributing to cloud production and coverage along with increasing coverage of light rain showers. The area will remain under the influence of large upper level low pressure system as it slowly fills and shifts east during the course of the day. Scattered rain showers will continue to dot the area as unsettled, cyclonic flow persist around the base of this upper low. With the showers and generally cloudy conditions, temperatures will remain on the cool side as well with highs only reaching the lower to mid 40s this afternoon.
Could see some freezing temperatures over the eastern CWA Tuesday night, especially in low lying cold spots.
245 PM MDT Mon Mar 30 2020 Current analysis shows strong mid-level warm advection over parts of western South Dakota to the east of the approaching upper trough. Temperatures will be cool enough on Tuesday night for a little snow accumulation over the higher elevations of the northern Black Hills.
(This evening through Tuesday) Strong mid-level trough, currently exiting the southern Rockies, will keep widespread rain going well into tonight. Rain expected to end from west to east this evening, although after larger rain shield exits overnight, areas of drizzle and perhaps light showers will be possible tomorrow morning as lower level moisture gets trapped beneath subsidence inversion in wake of trough.
Wind won't be quite as high as yesterday, as the highest gusts will occur before lunch time due to better mixing and low level lapse rates. Tuesday will be quite similar to today (Monday) as cool north/northeast flow continues on the back-end of a broad, upper- level low to the northeast and a southern stream low pressure system traversing the I-40 corridor.
241 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020 (Tonight and Tuesday) An upper trough over the southern Rockies is moving east into the central and southern High Plains. A Pacific front is moving east across the Permian Basin, and a warm front was in our far northern counties and moving north. Expect an increase in shower and thunderstorm development through late this afternoon and early evening, as the upper trough continues to move east and the Pacific front moves in from the west. Temperatures will be cooler overnight with a drier airmass. Tuesday morning lows are expected to be mostly in the lower 50s, with a few upper 40s possible.
313 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020 A weak cold front was just north of the CWA this morning. Temperatures were in the mid 50s in parts of east central IA and NW IL, while readings in the lower 60s were seen in parts of SE IA, NE MO, and west cental IL. Lows will range from the lower 30s in NW IL to the upper 30s near the IA, MO, IL tri-state area.
Dry conditions expected today for the most part aside from possible showers over portions of the North Bay today as a weak cold front moves inland to the north. Temperatures this morning are within a few degrees of yesterday with most locations currently in the low to mid 50s. Afternoon highs are expected mainly in the low to mid 60s with chillier temperatures in the hills and over parts of the North Bay. Instead, cyclonic flow aloft will persist as a long-wave trough persists over the West. While we cannot rule out a few interior locations reaching the lower 70s this week, temperatures generally will remain near to slightly below seasonal averages.
141 PM MDT Mon Mar 30 2020 The open trough aloft moving east of the Rockies across the southern and Central High Plains region this afternoon will continue east over the southern plains states tonight.
Wind won't be quite as high as yesterday, as the highest gusts will occur before lunch time due to better mixing and low level lapse rates.
Warm and dry conditions are continuing today with highs ranging from the mid 80s along the East Coast to the low/mid 90s across the interior. Warm and dry conditions continue into tomorrow with surface winds becoming more southwesterly as a cold front approaches the region.
324 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020 A weak area of low pressure will move across the southern states on Tuesday, perhaps bringing some light rain to northern Kentucky and far southern Ohio. As the low level flow veers to a north then to the northeast, stratocumulus clouds will thicken once again and shift to the south and southwest. Lows will range from the lower to mid 30s north to near 40 south.