Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
857 PM PDT Tue May 19 2015 Variable clouds with mainly mountain showers and afternoon thunderstorms through the week as the west coast remains under the influence of a low pressure system. Low pressure system will stay off the coast through Wednesday so expect little change in conditions for tomorrow.
NEAR THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS. WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD.
BROAD LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH GENERAL UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALLOWING A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO SPREAD BACK WEST INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
A weak cold front will arrive 12-18Z shifting the winds from the northeast. /ISSUED 248 PM CDT Tue May 19 2015/ The active weather pattern will continue through the remainder of the week under persistent SW flow aloft thanks to continued upper troughing over the western ConUS. things should be fairly quiet through early afternoon as a cold front sinks south through the TX Panhandle.
BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT THRU AT LEAST 20/12Z SHOULD RESULT IN VFR/SKC CONDITIONS. RIDGING INFLUENCES IN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL EVOLVE INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW TYPE OF PATTERN ALOFT THRU 20/24Z.
STRONG COLD FRONT IS ON SCHEDULE TO CLEAR LBB SHORTLY BEFORE 06Z AHEAD OF A SHIELD OF IFR STRATUS AND SOME FOG. VISBYS HAVE FALLEN TO AS LOW AS 1/2SM AT TIMES BEHIND THE FRONT AND THIS THREAT SEEMS MOST PRUDENT AT LBB AND PVW WHEREAS NEARBY SHRA/TSRA AT CDS FOR ANOTHER HOUR SHOULD KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MIXED TO AVOID POOR VISBYS. /ISSUED 914 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/ UPDATED TO LOWER MIN TEMPS CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING THE FAR SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. HOWEVER WE STILL EXPECT SOME STORMS TO RE-DEVELOP WWD TO NEAR THE I-27 AND HWY 87 CORRIDOR LATER TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND TRAILING FRONT ALOFT INTERSECT DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE RETREATING DRYLINE.
749 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 EXPECTED COLD FRONT IS NOW ACROSS NW GA AND EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH GA AND STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT. /39 THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CWA WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL GA TONIGHT AND THEN HANG AROUND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA WEDNESDAY.
646 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015 A WARM FRONT SOUTH OF ARKANSAS WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE.
641 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015 00Z TAF CYCLE A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH ALL OF THE TAF SITES BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE OUT OF THE PANHANDLES SHORTLY AFTER. COLD FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE.
910 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
914 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015 UPDATED TO LOWER MIN TEMPS CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING THE FAR SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. HOWEVER WE STILL EXPECT SOME STORMS TO RE-DEVELOP WWD TO NEAR THE I-27 AND HWY 87 CORRIDOR LATER TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND TRAILING FRONT ALOFT INTERSECT DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE RETREATING DRYLINE.
810 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015 AN UPPER LOW ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN WRAPPING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING AND FAR SOUTHERN MONTANA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS WYOMING. AND WEAK RIDGING OVER EASTERN MONTANA.
TONIGHT WILL BE HUMID AGAIN WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S.
1157 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A DRIER AIR MASS TO BUILD IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
920 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE UT AREA WITH THE MAIN VORT LOBE LIFTING OVER NORTHERN CO WITH ANOTHER LEAD PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN AR INTO NORTH CENTRAL OK AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL SWITCH WINDS FROM EAST/NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHERLY FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
ADK UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE UT AREA WITH THE MAIN VORT LOBE LIFTING OVER NORTHERN CO WITH ANOTHER LEAD PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN AR INTO NORTH CENTRAL OK AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL SWITCH WINDS FROM EAST/NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHERLY FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
734 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
MAIN ISSUE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN HOW SATURATED WE ARE IN THE LOWER/BOUNDARY LAYER. OUR AREA WILL BE ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN U.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TONIGHT. UNEVENTFUL EVENING WEATHER-WISE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S WHICH MATCHED WELL WITH CONSENSUS. WITH LACK OF MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH FORCING HAVE CUT POPS FROM GUIDANCE NUMBERS AND KEEP THEM IN THE LOW TO MID CHANCE CATEGORY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM APPROXIMATELY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF KMEM TO JUST SOUTH OF KOHX TO FAR NE TN WILL IMPACT N AL/S MIDDLE TN OVERNIGHT.
658 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS COLORADO.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OR MOVED SOUTH OF THE TN BORDER DURING THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AS COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH AND EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AIR MASS IS NOW FILTERING INTO THE REGION.
758 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD MAINTAINING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS TREK TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRATOCUMULUS DECK CONTINUES TO IS STRUGGLE TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH AS THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.
1156 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS COLORADO.
COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. SYNOPTICALLY A VERY BROAD LONGWAVE TROF CURRENTLY ACROSS OUR AREA WILL MAKE LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL. LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD A RIDGE ALONG THE COAST WHILE THE TROF PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. BIG QUESTION IS WILL THE RIDGE AXIS MOVE OVERHEAD OR SIMPLY FLATTEN OUT. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH. SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM SCA. SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM SCA.
605 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 140 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/ A COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM JUST WEST OF PITTSBURGH THRU THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF NASHVILLE, THEN TO THE WEST THRU NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THUS FAR, ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED IN OUR FORECAST AREA WITH SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NRN GA INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN AL WHERE THE AIRMASS IS MORE UNSTABLE AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROF WAS LOCATED. MOISTURE APPEARS SHALLOWER JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN SRN TN AND NRN AL, AND DRY ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE SFC WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE THREAT OF PRECIP THRU THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL. AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES S FROM KS. AND COOLER AIR WILL FLOW IN. THEN MERGE INTO A SINGLE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OKLAHOMA.
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. /ISSUED 641 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/ 00Z TAF CYCLE A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH ALL OF THE TAF SITES BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE OUT OF THE PANHANDLES SHORTLY AFTER. COLD FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE.
637 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER AND SWINGING NORTHWARD.
942 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA.
707 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A DRIER AIR MASS TO BUILD IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
708 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH FROM ERN CANADA INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS FROM WI INTO LOWER MI. 25 INCH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. DUE TO THE AREA BEING BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
/ISSUED 419 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015/ THE BROAD SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS OFF CENTRAL FLORIDA. TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND JUST NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO ENTER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WITH THE LINGERING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.
1200 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH FROM ERN CANADA INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS FROM WI INTO LOWER MI. 25 INCH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. DUE TO THE AREA BEING BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
929 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A STRETCH OF FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS THE REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN A COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE. AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS BETWEEN THESE TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING MODEST WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH. WHILE ELSEWHERE LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES S FROM KS. AND COOLER AIR WILL FLOW IN. THEN MERGE INTO A SINGLE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OKLAHOMA.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REACH THE LOW- TO MID 30S.
826 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A DRIER AIR MASS TO BUILD IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
731 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY TO THE OHIO VALLEY.
745 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 MUCH COOLER AIR WILL PASS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR A STRETCH OF FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS THE REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN A COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE. AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS BETWEEN THESE TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING MODEST WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH. WHILE ELSEWHERE LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
1036 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A STRETCH OF FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS THE REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN A COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE. AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS BETWEEN THESE TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING MODEST WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH. WHILE ELSEWHERE LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STILL MAY BE SUBSIDENT WITH WEAK RIDGING BUT ALSO SOME WEAK DIFFLUENCE. BECAUSE GROUNDS ARE STILL WET AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT RELAXES. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 70S. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO FLATTEN ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING NOSES INTO THE REGION. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RISE ACCORDINGLY WITH THE HIGHER HEIGHTS /BOTH GFS AND ECMWF 700 MB TEMPERATURE PROGS AROUND 10 DEG C/ AND THIS WILL HELP PROVIDE SOME CAPPING TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. BUT TOMORROW CARRIES THE LOWEST RAIN CHANCES OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN RISING INTO THE MID 80S.
515 PM PDT TUE MAY 19 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEK WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES.
/ISSUED 345 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/ OUR TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 80S NORTH TO MID 80S ELSEWHERE. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE REASON IS A GOOD PUSH OUT OF THE ROCKIES OUT INTO THE PLAINS WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW. THE TAIL END OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE IT/S EVOLUTION BEYOND SUNDOWN WITH THE EXPECTATION OF THE UPPER DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE LOW WORKING EAST OUT INTO THE MID SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
749 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
1207 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
1046 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF VERMONT. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND WILL DRIFT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NEW ENGLAND REGION AT THE SURFACE. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE REGION THERE WILL BE A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ELONGATE AND SHEAR APART OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING TONIGHT. SITUATED BETWEEN AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW ACROSS WY. AND A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE CA COAST. AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE COAST. AN INCREASE IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH SPREADS INLAND AND SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
1219 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD MAINTAINING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONT STALLED NEAR THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR COULD YIELD A SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS MY FAR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. WITH A FRONT MEANDERING ABOUT NEAR THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH.
1117 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 AVIATION A COOL AIR MASS HAS SETTLED INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY TONIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WARMER AIR WILL COME CHANCES FOR RAIN.
900 PM PDT TUE MAY 19 2015 LOW PRESSURE ALOFT AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP AREAS OF CLOUDS.
806 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 MARINE A COOL AIR MASS HAS SETTLED INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY TONIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WARMER AIR WILL COME CHANCES FOR RAIN.
BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST 20/12Z SHOULD RESULT IN VFR/SKC CONDITIONS. RIDGING INFLUENCES IN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL EVOLVE INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW TYPE OF PATTERN ALOFT THRU 20/24Z. BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT THRU AT LEAST 20/12Z SHOULD RESULT IN VFR/SKC CONDITIONS. RIDGING INFLUENCES IN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL EVOLVE INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW TYPE OF PATTERN ALOFT THRU 20/24Z.
909 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015 FORECAST ON TRACK WITH SHOWERS STILL WELL OFF TO THE WEST AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNDER THE WEAKENING RIDGE. A WEAK WAVE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW WHILE A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AREA PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY WILL NOT HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE PCPN, BUT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE PCPN SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BEYOND TOMORROW EVENING, DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THIS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE US. OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST AND ALLOW WARM MOIST AIR TO BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST AND BUILD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.
A cold front will approach KABI around 17z, then slowly move south. Wednesday, a cold front will move into the Big Country in the afternoon, and through the rest of West Central Texas overnight. 04 (Wednesday night through Tuesday) The slow moving cold front is forecast to be near the I-20 corridor by Wednesday evening. As thunderstorms develop along/north of this cold front, southerly winds above the boundary layer will feed Gulf moisture into the complex.
THERE SEEMS TO BE AN ENHANCED MESOSCALE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA THERMAL LOW AND A SMALL BUBBLE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOLER. WE DID UPDATE THE DIGITAL AND DERIVED FORECASTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHER WINDS. A WEAK WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL LIE ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEFORE SLOWLY BEING REINFORCED BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK.
926 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD MAINTAINING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS TREK TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRATOCUMULUS DECK CONTINUES TO IS STRUGGLE TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH AS THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
1011 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A DRIER AIR MASS TO BUILD IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
/ISSUED 641 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/ 00Z TAF CYCLE A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH ALL OF THE TAF SITES BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE OUT OF THE PANHANDLES SHORTLY AFTER. COLD FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE.
UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE UT AREA WITH THE MAIN VORT LOBE LIFTING OVER NORTHERN CO WITH ANOTHER LEAD PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN AR INTO NORTH CENTRAL OK AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. EASTERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO NORTHERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
TONIGHT LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING FULLY ENCOMPASSING SE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. STEADY STREAM OF SMOKE EMANATING FROM WILDFIRES ACROSS MAGNIFIED BY THE LACK OF STEERING FLOW WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE DOME. RIDGE AXIS TENDING TO EASE EASTWARD WITH TIME. NATIONAL WV IMAGERY REVEALS WELL-DEFINED TROUGH ANCHORED BY A CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTING FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO HUDSON BAY THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH A DECENT COVERAGE OF SMOKE MAY LINGER YET DURING THE MORNING BEFORE RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST.
301 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON AND IS NOW LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN KY/WESTERN VA. AND IS CLOSEST TO THE FORCING PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LOW. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING.
THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND GREATER MOISTURE. THE MODELS NOW ALL HAVE A BIT SLOWER PROGRESS WITH THE COLD FRONT, NOT ENTERING FAR NORTHWEST MO UNTIL THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME.
A LARGE RIDGE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE IN OUR REGION THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
137 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION MONDAY.
455 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE EAST ON MONDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WAS CURRENTLY FROM SOUTHEASTERN ND TO RIGHT NEAR FARGO UP INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST VALUES ARE STILL ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW AS STORMS REDEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT BEFORE IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF OUR AREA. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR A WHILE OVERNIGHT. ONLY A FEW OF THE MODELS HAVE SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING IN THE WEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN TROUGH. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AROUND -9C AT 500MB AND INCREASING VORTICITY ADVECTION AT THE SAME LEVEL MAY PRODUCE STRONG STORMS.
222 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
303 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 FAIRLY QUIET MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMING ESTABLISHED TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK AS A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE UPPER 70S.
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE STORM/HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. THE OVERALL MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF A COLD FRONT.
214 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY.
At the surface, the backdoor cold front from yesterday remains stalled from roughly Lookout Pass through Hamilton to Dillon. Tomorrow, temperatures will begin to warm again as weak ridging moves into the area.
1012 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015 COOLER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG WITH DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
PER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVEMENT. /ISSUED 1211 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/ UPPER LOW OVER S CNTRL KY SHOULD CONTINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY NEWD AS THE AFTERNOON HRS PROGRESS. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH SHOWERS AND VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING AROUND CENTER ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALONG PLATEAU.
300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION AND CONTINUES TO MEANDER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION. THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE REGION HAS HAD AN OPPORTUNITY TO WARM WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS BROKE INTO THE 70S. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE TO NEAR THE OH/WV BORDER BY MONDAY EVENING.
THERE WILL FINALLY BE SOME CHANGE TO THE PATTERN AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION DRIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH NEARS THE AREA AND DEEPER MARINE AIR PUSHES INTO THE INTERIOR. XMB AND IF THE MARINE AIR ON THE COAST DEEPENS OVERNIGHT TEMPS COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE FORECAST.
COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IN ADVANCE OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT FOR EARLY JULY. THIS PARTICULAR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
144 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK.