Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
256 AM MDT Wed Sep 23 2020 Latest upper air analysis shows zonal flow over the Northern CONUS with a trough approaching the West Coast. A ridge remains over the Southern CONUS. West of the trough winds will be from the west or north. East of the trough winds will be from the south. There will be weak WAA behind the trough, which will cause the highs to be a few degrees warmer than today.
The temperature forecast leans on the cooler short term model blend vs the very warm RAP and HRRR models. Thursday might be the best shot at record highs as a thermal ridge will be overhead featuring h700mb temperatures in the low teens.
With cloud cover and widespread precipitation in place, temperatures will remain nearly steady in the low to mid 60s overnight. Overnight lows will stay in the mid to low 60s, with afternoon highs staying in the low 70s. Outside of the nice, cooler weather, TS Beta will continue to be a big rain producer for our area over the short-term.
At the lower levels, however, plenty of moisture remains, clearly evident by the ongoing drizzle throughout much of North and Central Texas. Although conditions should remain precipitation free, moisture is expected to remain trapped in the lowest 2500 feet, leading to continued cloud cover through much of tonight across the region.
The stratus will result in a bit of a slow start to warming temperatures today, but we will be starting from a warmer position relative to the last several days. In the end afternoon conditions should be pretty similar to yesterday with progged 1000- 500mb thickness values pointing to high temperatures today maybe 1-2 degrees warmer than yesterday. Moving to overnight, flow aloft will veer from northwest to north which will make any thunderstorms that form over the higher terrain of northeastern New Mexico even less likely to move into the forecast area. Upper ridging stretching from the Four Corners region northeastward into south-central Canada and upper troughing across the southeastern US will put the FA under northerly flow aloft Thursday morning.
However, they will be a touch cooler for Thursday behind a frontal boundary. The upper pattern will feature mainly zonal flow with a broad upper trough appearance across the northern plains initially, with that trough deepening as it gets into the western lakes region for the end of the weekend.
Weak lee troughing will continue through the overnight period. Overnight minimums will be slightly warmer as a result of the clouds. For Wednesday, the lee troughing pattern will continue. Our southeastern zones may see slightly cooler highs in the 70s should the morning clouds linger the longest there. The lee trough will fragment on Thursday.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms, producing gusty winds but little to no rain, will be found in the afternoons and evenings over and near the higher terrain through Wednesday.
227 AM MDT Wed Sep 23 2020 Weak upper-level ridging will build in over the area today ahead of our next weather system which will impact the area in a few day.
This will result in a band of showers moving from NW-SE across the area producing mostly light amounts of rainfall in the lower elevations and moderate amounts in the mountains.
139 AM MDT Wed Sep 23 2020 NE Pac upper trough will begin to shift east supporting semi- active flow into the Northern Plains. Broad troughing will set up over central Canada, with a western NOAM ridge.
Dry weather is expected for the remainder of the forecast with a warming trend anticipated as we move into the weekend as the 850 mb thermal ridge expands into the area.
232 AM MDT Wed Sep 23 2020 Latest upper air analysis shows zonal flow over the Northern CONUS with a trough approaching the West Coast. A ridge remains over the Southern CONUS. West of the trough winds will be from the west or north. East of the trough winds will be from the south. There will be weak WAA behind the trough, which will cause the highs to be a few degrees warmer than today.
412 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020 An upper ridge over the forecast area will flatten during the day as an upper trough deepens over the lower MS River Valley. The remnants will become absorbed in the trough as it moves eastward across the TN River Valley on Thursday.
223 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020 High pressure begins to wane, allowing for an increase in cloud cover and warmer conditions today.
312 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020 Models bring an upper low from southern Missouri this morning to just north of the PAH forecast area tonight, with the associated trof moving across our region tonight into Thursday.
237 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020 Dry and warm conditions should persist under high pressure through late week. Precipitation chances should then increase late this weekend with the approach of a cold front. The dry and quiet pattern will continue tonight as high pressure remains over the Ohio Valley. Continued high pressure will lead to another mostly sunny day on Wednesday, perhaps with a bit more upper level cloud cover than today as the flow aloft backs slightly. Mid-level troughing returns to the Ohio Valley on Thursday, with the remnants of the tropical system Beta tracking with the trough mainly into the Tennessee Valley.
414 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020 Dry weather is expected to continue through the end of the week under high pressure with a gradual warming trend.
1248 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020 High pressure near the Ohio River Valley will remain in place through Thursday afternoon.
Mid level ridging also will keep things on the quiet side. In the lower levels a southwest flow will be in place ahead of a surface/825 low to our west. Instability on the low side but enough to have at least a thunder mention.
315 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020 High pressure will extend from the Tennessee Valley southeast across the Carolinas through Thursday.
304 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020 High pressure will allow for dry conditions through Thursday. Temperatures will be a little warmer overnight tonight than last night, however several locations especially across the Scioto River Valley will drop down into the 40s overnight.
1247 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020 A mild/warm Fall weather pattern will persist for several days Aloft, the pattern reflected weak ridging across the plains states, while to the south remnants of Beta were lifting north from south Texas. Visible satellite shows an expansive cloud shield from south TX northward into eastern KS associated with the upper trough. Temps through the remainder of the workweek will remain above normal with highs in the 80s/around 90F in a warm airmass influenced by ridging aloft.
today, a low amplitude upper level trough will set up over the region, maintaining a northwest flow aloft. With mostly clear to partly cloudy skies through Thursday, highs will reach the lower to mid 90s across the area each afternoon, with tonight's lows in the upper 60s across a portion of the ranchlands and in the lower to mid 70s elsewhere.
325 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020 Scattered showers with an isolated thunderstorm mainly along and north of the highway 2 corridor today. A cold front is dropping south through the forecast area and is currently located from around Devils Lake to Garrison to Sidney MT. With daytime heating, the weak forcing, combined with convergence associated with weak inverted trough, could spark a stray thundershower over the far southwest again this afternoon. The aforementioned cold front through the forecast area by late afternoon/early evening with an easterly surface flow over the area, turning southerly and increasing over western ND by 12 UTC Thursday.
The latest upper level analysis reveals high pressure extending from the Desert Southwest up into the Central Plains with embedded areas of weak troughing. One such trough was located near the KS/MO border with moisture plume extending over the ArkLaTex region down near the remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Beta in far East Texas. At the surface, a weak lee trough was noted over the Raton Mesa area, promoting southeasterly flow and low level moisture advection across the eastern and central Panhandles. The low clouds and fog should burn off by mid morning with another pleasant day in store. High pressure tries to strengthen some across the Desert Southwest on Thursday ahead of Pac Northwest trough coming onshore. This will lead to 500mb heights increasing some across the Panhandles and slightly warmer conditions.
Moisture will be increasing across the area as a short wave trough to our west interacts with the remnants of Beta.
1155 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 Dry and warm conditions should persist under high pressure through late week. Precipitation chances should then increase late this weekend with the approach of a cold front. The dry and quiet pattern will continue tonight as high pressure remains over the Ohio Valley. Continued high pressure will lead to another mostly sunny day on Wednesday, perhaps with a bit more upper level cloud cover than today as the flow aloft backs slightly. Mid-level troughing returns to the Ohio Valley on Thursday, with the remnants of the tropical system Beta tracking with the trough mainly into the Tennessee Valley.
Beta was downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone yesterday evening and continues to move NE at 8mph along the TX coast.
In the wake of the storm weak high pressure at the surface builds in while aloft a large scale trough lingers over Texas through the short term. Warmer conditions are expected across the Rio Grande Plains eastward towards the San Antonio metro area where skies will be clear, or will clear through the morning hours. Light northerly flow continues tonight with overnight lows ranging from the lower 60s in the Hill Country to the mid and upper 60s for the Rio Grande and Coastal Plains. Thursday should be very similar today including the wrap around cloud cover producing partly cloudy skies and slightly cooler temperatures for the Hill Country, Austin Metro, and points east.
140 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020 High pressure will extend from the Tennessee Valley southeast across the Carolinas through Thursday.
140 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020 High pressure will maintain fair weather with a gradual warming trend this week. Area of mainly mid-high level clouds will clear out through early this morning as high pressure centered over Tennessee- Kentucky continues to dominate our weather. A southward sagging weak cold front will stall out from north of Lake Ontario to far southern Quebec on Thursday as it bumps into high pressure ridging north across the region from the Mid Atlantic.
A weak overnight trough will help keep temperatures slightly cooler today and allow humidities to not drop below 20 percent at most areas. However, upper ridging returns in full force for the the latter half of today and into Thursday to bring temperatures spiking back to the upper 80s and allow for another very dry day. Following close behind it will be another, more potent cold front that looks to pass through in the late afternoon and evening.
This trend of above normal temperatures will then continue through the upcoming weekend as high pressure aloft prevails and there will be little change in the underlying airmass.
Strengthening high pressure will build into the Desert Southwest over the next several days.
Today will be the last "warm" and dry day for the next several days, as our resident ridge of high pressure finally moves east of the region and is replaced by a trough of low pressure. Before the trough moves in, today's highs will climb into the 70s once again for western Montana and most of north central Idaho (save for a few valleys around Riggins where temps will be in the 80s). As the trough shifts over the Intermountain West tonight, rain will begin to spread from west to east through Thursday morning.
956 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020 High pressure near the Ohio River Valley will remain in place through Thursday afternoon.
1022 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020 High pressure will extend from the Tennessee Valley southeast across the Carolinas through Thursday.
The surface cold front is currently situated east to west along Interstate 94, with a northeast surface flow north of the front, which will be pushing through southern ND this morning. Scattered showers with an isolated thunderstorm mainly along and north of the highway 2 corridor today. A cold front is dropping south through the forecast area and is currently located from around Devils Lake to Garrison to Sidney MT. With daytime heating, the weak forcing, combined with convergence associated with weak inverted trough, could spark a stray thundershower over the far southwest again this afternoon. The aforementioned cold front through the forecast area by late afternoon/early evening with an easterly surface flow over the area, turning southerly and increasing over western ND by 12 UTC Thursday.
EDT Wed Sep 23 2020 High pressure will extend from the Tennessee Valley southeast across the Carolinas through Thursday.
Diurnally driving convection is possible over the highest terrain this afternoon, but no precipitation is expected to wring out. Temperatures will rise a few degrees warmer today, which will range from 6 to 10 degrees above seasonal norms. A calm and clear night may allow for a crisp morning, so have nudged tonight's low temperatures a few degrees lower than guidance to reflect the cooler temps observed across valleys in a drier regime.
Guidance for highs today is a little warmer than our forecast, as we're showing a couple degrees of cooling from yesterday. Left the forecast alone for now, but it could be a couple degrees warmer. Sunny dry weather along with light winds are expected across north central and northeastern Colorado on Thursday as upper level high pressure stretches from the Desert Southwest into the Northern Great Plains.
This stratus has pushed through most of the forecast area as of 08Z, with the influx of boundary layer tropical moisture helping to generate patchy fog despite both the low stratus and mid to high clouds attendant with an H500 cut-off low/vort max centered over the Ozarks. Nudged lows down slightly in the eastern areas to account for the reduction in daytime heating today, with highs about 5 degrees warmer in north-central KS. Increasing subsidence ahead of a positively-tilted ridge axis should clear skies out tonight, though some high clouds spilling south from a northern stream wave may filter across the area early Thursday morning.
Warmer and drier weather returns for the end of the week as zonal flow retreats north with ridging from the eastern Pacific building into NorCal.
1057 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020 Dry weather is expected to continue through the end of the week under high pressure with a gradual warming trend.
High temperatures will be a few degrees below yesterday's with low to mid 80s across the High Plains today, 70s along and west of the Laramie Range; 50s in the mountains.
With moisture still pulled behind an exiting Post Tropical Cyclone Beta another round of MVFR cigs is possible overnight tonight into tomorrow morning for the I-35 terminals. In the wake of the storm weak high pressure at the surface builds in while aloft a large scale trough lingers over Texas through the short term. Warmer conditions are expected across the Rio Grande Plains eastward towards the San Antonio metro area where skies will be clear, or will clear through the morning hours. Light northerly flow continues tonight with overnight lows ranging from the lower 60s in the Hill Country to the mid and upper 60s for the Rio Grande and Coastal Plains. Thursday should be very similar today including the wrap around cloud cover producing partly cloudy skies and slightly cooler temperatures for the Hill Country, Austin Metro, and points east.
527 AM MDT Wed Sep 23 2020 Latest upper air analysis shows zonal flow over the Northern CONUS with a trough approaching the West Coast. A ridge remains over the Southern CONUS. West of the trough winds will be from the west or north. East of the trough winds will be from the south. There will be weak WAA behind the trough, which will cause the highs to be a few degrees warmer than today.
526 AM MDT Wed Sep 23 2020 NE Pac upper trough will begin to shift east supporting semi- active flow into the Northern Plains. Broad troughing will set up over central Canada, with a western NOAM ridge.
Models bring an upper low from southern Missouri this morning to just north of the PAH forecast area tonight, with the associated trof moving across our region tonight into Thursday.
RAP analysis had an upper ridge over the Central Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley.
This is due to the rain bands from Post Tropical Cyclone Beta as it moves NE through the area.
750 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020 An upper ridge over the forecast area will flatten during the day as an upper trough deepens over the lower MS River Valley. The remnants will become absorbed in the trough as it moves eastward across the TN River Valley on Thursday.
410 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020 Dry pattern continues for our region, despite modest mid-upper level wave briefly breaking down upper ridge across the region tonight. Temperatures will be warmest today, with readings warming into the 80s in the thermal ridge ahead of the trough, possibly pushing 90F in some areas near the Missouri River Valley and far southeast SD. A little cooler behind the wave for Thursday, but still above normal with highs in the upper 70s-mid 80s, and continued dry with a fair amount of sunshine expected.
538 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020 Clouds on the increase today will bring slightly cooler temperatures to the region, otherwise dry conditions continue.
/issued 400 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020/ High pressure over the southeast U. today will move east out into western Atlantic Ocean during tonight and Thursday while the remnants of Beta move northeast across the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Moisture from Beta will stream into this upper low resulting in intermittent rainfall through early Thursday across at least portions of AR. Today, stratiform precipitation will slowly lift NEwrd ahead of the upper low. Over NW AR, precipitation will begin to wind down as sinking air moves into the Wrn side of the upper low and dries out.
637 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020 Dry pattern continues for our region, despite modest mid-upper level wave briefly breaking down upper ridge across the region tonight. Temperatures will be warmest today, with readings warming into the 80s in the thermal ridge ahead of the trough, possibly pushing 90F in some areas near the Missouri River Valley and far southeast SD. A little cooler behind the wave for Thursday, but still above normal with highs in the upper 70s-mid 80s, and continued dry with a fair amount of sunshine expected.
Dry weather returns today with slightly cooler temperatures.
651 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020 Dry weather is expected to continue through the end of the week under high pressure with a gradual warming trend.
Latest upper air analysis shows zonal flow over the Northern CONUS with a trough approaching the West Coast. A ridge remains over the Southern CONUS. West of the trough winds will be from the west or north. East of the trough winds will be from the south. There will be weak WAA behind the trough, which will cause the highs to be a few degrees warmer than today.
Rinse and repeat for Thursday, but with southwest winds a bit stronger for areas north of I-80 and along the Sierra Front in response to a trough of low pressure pushing into the Pacific Northwest.
Wet bulb zero temperatures and dry air in the low levels suggest that there could be some small hail and gusty winds. The upper trough is forecast to move across the area Thursday, but the low level dynamics are expected to weaken. Clouds and showers will keep temperatures a bit cooler than today, but it will still be warmer than normal for this time of the year.
630 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020 High pressure will extend from the Tennessee Valley southeast across the Carolinas through Thursday.
1008 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020 High pressure will remain across our region through tonight.
407 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020 RAP analysis had an upper ridge over the Central Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley.
635 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020 High pressure near the Ohio River Valley will remain in place through Thursday afternoon.
258 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020 Continued warm and dry into the weekend then a bit of a pattern change to cooler weather, but still expected to be dry. As this system passes we will see slightly cooler conditions north of I-90, but lows still in the mid 50s. High pressure will settle in with warm air in place.
1106 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020 Currently - High pressure centered in the eastern and southeastern United States extends a ridge eastward off of the Carolina and Georgia coast. Ridging is in place aloft. Shot Term Update - Winds will gradually oscillate downwards over the next couple of days as the ridge to our north continues to spread eastward and weaken. The continued influx of modified continental air will maintain dew points in the lower 70s and temperatures should top out in the upper 80s. A ridge extending off the southeastern United States will maintain a fairly tight gradient across Keys waters.
205 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020 After a foggy start this morning across portions of the Permian Basin, skies have cleared, with low clouds pushing to the east of the area, and diurnal cumulus developing across the higher terrain of Southeast New Mexico and Southwest Texas. Aloft, water vapor imagery indicates persistent ridging across the western CONUS and a slow-moving trough anchored from the Ohio and Middle Mississippi Valleys southwestward across east-central Texas as the remnants of Beta drift northeastward into Louisiana. As ridging to the west slowly builds in across the region and the trough drifts east, expect the current warming trend to continue through the start of the weekend.
(This evening through Thursday) As the upper level trough slowly moves out, stratus will break up somewhat today then move back in again overnight (somewhat further east).
352 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020 Currently - High pressure aligned from the eastern United States to off the Carolina Coast is responsible for moderate to fresh easterly breezes across the Keys. Robust mid and upper level ridging is in place across the area. Forecast - Over the next day or so the previously mentioned high pressure system will continue to slide eastward into the Atlantic. Rain chances will remain low through this period, and will likely fall a bit tomorrow afternoon due to the lower level dry air.
/Issued 750 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020/ An upper ridge over the forecast area will flatten during the day as an upper trough deepens over the lower MS River Valley. The remnants will become absorbed in the trough as it moves eastward across the TN River Valley on Thursday.
A cold front had pushed into South Dakota today while a secondary frontal boundary was placed near the International Border, responsible for earlier showers and new convection in north- central North Dakota this afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms should linger in the north-central through early this evening until mid-level height rises start with the upstream ridge arriving. Of additional concern will be the wind shift expected with a cold front moving in from the west by the late afternoon. Cooler temperatures, periods of breezy to windy conditions, and slight chances for showers will be associated with each wave.
1202 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020 Updated aviation section for 18z TAF issuance Models bring an upper low from southern Missouri this morning to just north of the PAH forecast area tonight, with the associated trof moving across our region tonight into Thursday.
A sfc trof axis that is located across northwest Kansas will fragment this evening. Highs tomorrow will be warmer with the downslope flow. Expect a range from the lower 90s in the west to the upper 80s in the east.
Areas beneath this stratus deck have remained a few degrees cooler than other areas with highs only reaching the mid 70s. As a result, temperatures will be on the rise a midlevel ridge axis builds into the region from the southwest US.
Overnight lows will range from the low to mid 60s, with afternoon highs getting into the mid 70s.