Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
At this time, a portion of the CWA, the eastern third, is still observing the highest winds/gusts anticipated for today. Locations from Gary IN back to Pontiac IL are still in this higher axis, but once again, anticipate these higher speeds to steadily push east through the remainder of the CWA over the next couple hours. Clear/Sunny skies then anticipated tonight into Monday with high pressure building overhead. Rodriguez 204 PM CST The period will start with the approach of another cold front on Tuesday, as another clipper system shifts over the upper Great Lakes.
318 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017 Will start out this morning will at persistent 500mb trough overhead, that will slide to our east Tuesday morning. trough Tuesday afternoon and evening.
A low pressure system will bring valley rain, mountain snow and cooler temperatures today.
On Monday morning rain and snow is forecast for eastern and north-central sections, with snow, sleet, and freezing rain all being possible elsewhere. On Monday night and Tuesday morning, expect higher accumulations in western sections where stronger dynamics near mid-level closed low expected. Closed low pulls southeast of area Tuesday afternoon and evening, with precipitation coming to an end.
A low pressure system moving east across northern Mexico will maintain shower activity over southeast Utah through early Monday.
259 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017 255 AM CST High pressure is centered over northern Missouri early this morning with ridging extending across portions of the Midwest providing fair weather conditions to much of the region today. Light winds this morning will become a modest southwest breeze this afternoon as the ridge axis shifts to our east and low pressure drops across the Canadian Prairies.
126 AM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 A strong cold front will move across the area this evening as low pressure slides across the eastern Great Lakes and merges with a stronger system along the New England coast. This system will pull away to the east on Monday allowing high pressure from the Plains to build overhead.
301 AM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 High pressure moving into the forecast area from the west today will be over the area tonight and off the Southeast Coast Tuesday.
311 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017 Surface map this morning features high pressure centered over MO with ridge axis extending northward into the Upper Mississippi River Valley. High pressure pushes off to the east today and a cold front drops through the Dakotas into MN. For Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, a cold front will drop across the area into the Great Lakes region for a chance of snow showers.
The latest water vapor imagery has an upper low moving through the Great Lakes. This feature will push a surface cold front through Central Alabama by Monday morning. High temperatures the next few days behind the front will be 10-15 degrees cooler, but still just above normal. 08 A cold front will move through Central Alabama tonight. Dry and cooler conditions will return Monday and Tuesday.
104 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017 A cut off upper low over western Kansas this afternoon will very slowly slide east into central Kansas by Thursday afternoon. This will keep temperatures cooler than today, but still above freezing. Will continue to keep even night time temperatures above freezing for areas that are seeing drizzle and thus no freezing drizzle is expected.
/issued 520 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017/ Issued update to have the High Wind Warning start earlier. Latest model guidance is showing that high winds will likely start in the higher elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains this evening with winds increasing in the lower elevations on Thursday. The High Wind Warning is now starting at 00z to account for the earlier arrival of the high winds.
302 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 High pressure will settle overhead today before moving off to the east tonight.
500 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 A pressure ridge in the forecast area will weaken today ahead of an approaching warm front.
Temperatures did get a couple degrees warmer though with sunshine in a few locales. Modest low level moist advection will continue across the area tonight through Thursday as the main upper low over Colorado and New Mexico moves east across the central and southern Plains. So will reintroduce small PoPs there with a chance of drizzle as far west as Beaumont ridge in the Flint Hills. A vort lobe rotating under the parent upper low looks to move across central into northeast Kansas during Thursday. Some patchy drizzle and fog could redevelop across parts of central and southeast Kansas Thursday night in the wake of the departing upper trof in the easterly component flow at the surface. Another upper trof will quickly approach and impact the area late Friday with the emerging surface cyclone moving from southwest into north central Kansas.
314 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017 Southerly flow and increasing moisture has advected into the local area behind an effective warm front early Thursday morning. Aloft, southwest flow is limiting moisture fields in the mid and upper levels as a broad upper-level trough continues to push through the Central Plains today. With that said, temperatures will still be near 10 degrees above normal, ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s south of the Missouri River, down to the lower 40s across northeastern Missouri.
The passage of the main upper low to the ENE will give SE TX a break from the rains by tomorrow afternoon, but will be expecting the return of low clouds/fog tomorrow night/Fri morn- ing.
A dry and warmer day is expected Friday, before another storm system arrives for the weekend.
358 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 A short break from precipitation today as high pressure slides across the area. The toughest part of the forecast is how fast, if at all, the low clouds will finally disperse from the area. Latest models are coming into good agreement on slowing down the onset of rain tonight, as the upper level low over the Central US will weaken and spin further to the north by Friday morning. By Friday afternoon, the main moisture stream will have moved to the northeast, with the trough axis following closely on its heels.
The upper ridge over the area is moving east. These showers have struggled to move northeast as the disturbance moves into the ridge and weakens. The main concern for the next few days is the upper low now centered over the OK panhandle. As the upper low begins to trek east tonight the stationary front located from Atlanta to Natchez MS will begin to lift north while low pressure tracks into southern AR by 12z Thursday and then just west of the Mississippi River during the day. On this Thursday the upper low will track to NE Kansas while the area of deep moisture and strong lift slowly treks across the Mid-South. Upper low lifts out Thursday night with high pops along the TN River in the evening then precip chances will taper off.
Meanwhile, weak cold front enters northern parts of forecast area late tonight and Thursday, with winds becoming northerly in those areas.
Freezing rain has developed at Burley and updated to decrease snow amounts there as should mainly see freezing rain for a few hours before any change over expected. Some freezing rain is also possible late tonight and Thu morn in the Magic Valley and southern highlands. There could be a brief period of freezing rain The morn in the Snake Plain. A very weak 500mb longwave pattern persists with the upper level ridge transitioning to a trough after Mon. Freezing rain will end in KBYI overnight tonight, changing to all snow.
Made some adjustments to add fog mention in across mainly the eastern half of forecast zones, especially areas that reached a high temperature above freezing earlier.
Currently, a broad upper level ridge extended over central North America with a longwave trough over the west coast. The broad ridge was associated with a south to southwest surface flow and southwest to west mid level flow, resulting in mild conditions across western and central ND.
The higher clouds are part of a moisture stream from Mexico, ahead of an upper low currently over northern New Mexico. This low will lift northeast into the central Plains late tonight. Deep trof over the desert SW dominating the weather pattern across the CONUS, keeping temperatures well above normal for mid January. However, that deep western trof amplifying the pattern overall as well as enhancing a mid level ridge over the east coast.
Low level moisture across the southern Plains will quickly stream northward tonight with dewpoints remaining the the lower to mid 30s overnight. Temps may hold right around freezing, but not sure the low level moisture is deep enough, and whether there would be enough lift to generate any precipitation. Fortunately, temperatures will be in the 40s Thursday, and remain in the lower to mid 30s Thursday night. Weather grids do have a wintry mix in northeast NE late Friday night for an hour or two, but the dynamics and lift associated with the low are likely just ahead of the colder air, except for just a couple of counties.
Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery shows an elongated upper level low situated along the front range with multiple embedded vort maxes. Low chances for drizzle or light rain across mainly the eastern and northern forecast area on Thursday night and into Friday as the next system makes an approach and lifts the warm front northward.
Soaked soils east of I-35 and the delayed removal of clouds should mean high temperature should be about 5 degrees cooler over eastern counties versus western counties. Warmer temperatures should thus expand farther east although there could be some stubborn clouds again over eastern counties where moisture pooling remains.
1010 PM MST Wed Jan 18 2017 Upper level analysis has Rex Blocking pattern across the Central and Northern Plains with large trof entering the West Coast. At the surface, high pressure resides across the central CONUS with broad but weak low pressure across the Dakotas and eastern Wyoming and Montana. Tonight, weakening upper ridge remains in place with temperatures falling into the teens across the SD plains, and in the 20s across Northeast Wyoming and the Black Hills. Thursday, weak upper low shifts northeast, replaces upper ridge, and weakens as upper trough develops over the west.
and freezing rain will impact the Inland Northwest tonight. Freezing rain will be confined to mainly the Moses Lake area with pockets of freezing rain possible northern valleys. more freezing rain around the Moses Lake area. With several valley temperatures hovering around the freezing mark and with some road temperature sensors reading 31-32F around the Sandpoint area, localized freezing rain is expected. With marginal temps for freezing rain in the northern valleys will limit freezing rain to just a chance mention. while continuing to carry likely freezing rain around the Moses Lake area with I-90 and other highways in Grant County continuing to be impacted after last night's ice storm. KMWH has warmed above freezing with -FRZA considered to be less of a threat.
1238 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 Low pressure will pass through the region tonight with some additional light snow.
257 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017 Upper low over the Central Plains will be the primary weather-maker across central Illinois over the next 24 hours. Given copious deep-layer moisture and strong forcing from approaching upper low, showers will become numerous across the area this afternoon. Several models are producing light QPF across the area Friday night as a warm front lifts through central Illinois.
1059 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017 Difficult forecast for area terminals over the next 24 hours as our eastern most locations will experience one more period of rain towards sunrise on Thu and through the day Thu before an upper level trough moves ovhd and sweeps all of the precipitation to the east. Mid to upper 40s North and we are mostly ranging through the lower to mid 50s at this hour.
1234 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 Weak high pressure will build from the west into Thursday, and settle overhead Thursday night into early Friday.
Westerly wind direction will provide some downslope warming component so leaned temps towards the warmer side of guidance. Overnight Thursday into Friday morning, LLJ winds will keep winds elevated, mostly on the Caprock, before a trough whips by to our north during the afternoon, pulling strong westerly winds across the Panhandle, South and Rolling Plains. Unfortunately, winds will not calm overnight Friday as the LLJ fires back up before the approach of the next upper level trough.
446 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 High pressure will build northeast across Pennsylvania today, providing dry conditions through early Friday. Low pressure over the midwest will push a warm front north across the commonwealth during the day Friday bringing a several hour period of steady rain. ranging from the lower to middle 30s throughout Northern and western PA to near 40F in the larger metro areas across the lower Susq Valley. High temps today will be in the lower-mid 40s across the Northern and Western Mtns, and 45 to 50F from the Central mtns to the Lower Susq Valley. The main weather maker for early in this period will come in the form of a warm front that will lift north over the state during the day Friday. The upper ridge is forecast to re-establish itself over the eastern U.
1132 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 High pressure over the lower ohio valley will spread northeast over ohio and into pennsylvania tonight. A weak low will move out of texas into michigan friday and dissipate leaving a warm front over the region.
Upper trough will move inland from the Pacific today as the base of the trough will dig into California and Arizona. Temperatures aloft will cool from +9C at 850 mb this morning to +4C this evening as a weak cold front moves through the area today. Moisture at this point looks to limited to the southern zones of the forecast area with a chance of mixed precip as lows will be near freezing. Friday highs will be somewhat cooler with cloud cover and cooler air aloft (850 mb temp +2).
Web cameras indicated what appears to be dense fog on mid-bridge of the Lake Pontchartrain Causeway and along I-10 at the Oak Harbor and Old Spanish Trail exits in lower Slidell.
103 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 High pressure will briefly build over the area today, then another front will move through Friday.
A large upper low is drifting eastward over eastern Canada with a short wave trough nearing Bermuda. Deep layer high pressure is in place over the entire state of Florida, while a short wave is parked just east of the Colorado Front Range. Finally, a strong latitudinal trough is digging down the Pacific Coast from Alaska to the Baja Peninsula.
A weak trough at H85 approaches the CWA overnight and stalls across the panhandle during the day Thursday. Moisture content is rather impressive to the south and east with dew points in the 30s and 40s, and south winds will keep drawing that air ahead of the trough. NAM soundings show near saturation in the lowest 100-150 hPa at KBBW and KONL. The low clouds hold lows Thursday night to the lower 30s east of highway 83 with teens and 20s across a clearer area over Wrn Neb.
Low pressure has moved into Louisiana along old frontal boundary and is forecast to lift slowly northeast into the Ohio Valley over the next 24 hours. Upper level ridging over the northern Gulf of Mexico and Florida is being flattened as closed upper level low over the southern Plains moves into the upper Mississippi Valley.
309 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 High pressure will build northeast across Pennsylvania today, providing dry conditions through early Friday. Low pressure over the midwest will push a warm front north across the commonwealth during the day Friday bringing a several hour period of steady rain. ranging from the lower to middle 30s throughout Northern and western PA to near 40F in the larger metro areas across the lower Susq Valley. High temps today will be in the lower-mid 40s across the Northern and Western Mtns, and 45 to 50F from the Central mtns to the Lower Susq Valley. The main weather maker for early in this period will come in the form of a warm front that will lift north over the state during the day Friday. The upper ridge is forecast to re-establish itself over the eastern U.
418 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 High pressure will move east today, while low pressure approaches from the southwest. Expect widespread rain showers this evening through tonight when the low is forecast to travel to northern Ohio.
314 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017 Low clouds working slowly north at 08Z from western and central Kansas into central Nebraska in advance of 850mb trough over western Nebraska. 500 mb closed low was also in the area centered over south central Nebraska. Cloudy skies are expected to gradually overspread the forecast area today as upper low moves toward northeast Kansas with short range models showing some slight deepening during this time. Temperatures remain above freezing across the area early this morning and are expected to climb into the 40s by afternoon.
Conditions will improve on Friday with temperatures rebounding to U60s to L70s South of I-20; Southerly winds will help usher in humid air from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the short wave trough in the SW United States.
Model consensus is that the 500mb trough passes to the NE of the FA Friday morning thus diminishing rain chances. Will maintain small POPs Friday morning with a warm front in the vicinity.
Low pressure forming along the front is located in the vicinity of west central Louisiana. The low will give the frontal boundary a push out of the region later today, but not before additional showers affect central and eastern Arkansas. Upper trough moving out of the big bend area of Texas should send any deep layer moisture out of the region tonight and Friday. Friday should be dry and warm, with highs in the lower 60s to lower 70s across the area.
However, the area will again come under the influence of an upper trough moving overhead and the right-rear quadrant of the upper level jet maximum which in turn will help generate showers and thunderstorms once again mainly this morning.
SEVERAL FORECASTING CHALLENGES HAVE BEEN FACED WITH THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. WARM AIR HAS FINALLY ARRIVED TO THE OREGON SIDE OF THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE SUDDENLY RISEN INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ONCE THE WIND SHIFTED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A BAND OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM WENATCHEE SOUTHEAST TO LA GRANDE THAT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING FREEZING RAIN IN THE TRI-CITIES BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND THE BAND LIFTS NORTHEAST IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT ALTHOUGH THE BIGGEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
An active weather pattern sets up across the region the the next several days as a broad trough sets up across the western conus. The first trough then lifts into the region Thursday night into Friday pushing a warm front through the area. Locations north of interstate 90 look to remain cold enough Thursday night into Friday morning that we may have some freezing rain and perhaps some sleet concerns. The big concern is how quickly will surface temperatures warm above freezing. By early afternoon, most locations should be above freezing with rain the main precipitation type. The freezing rain may produce travel problems, especially north of Interstate 90, and on any untreated secondary roads, before temperatures warm above freezing.
318 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 A weak area of high pressure will be over the Carolinas tonight and Thursday. A warm front will move into the area Thursday night and Friday, then stall for the weekend.
1241 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 Building high pressure will provide mainly dry conditions for tonight and early Friday. Low pressure over the midwest will push a warm front north across the commonwealth Friday. ranging from the lower to middle 30s throughtout. Light W wind as the center of the high pressure stays to our S. The main weather maker for early in this period will come in the form of a warm front that will lift north over the state during the day Friday. The upper ridge is forecast to re-establish itself over the eastern U.
1011 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017 Made some adjustments to add fog mention in across mainly the eastern half of forecast zones, especially areas that reached a high temperature above freezing earlier.
1127 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 Building high pressure will provide mainly dry conditions for tonight and early Friday. Low pressure over the midwest will push a warm front north across the commonwealth Friday. ranging from the lower to middle 30s throughtout. Light W wind as the center of the high pressure stays to our S. The main weather maker for early in this period will come in the form of a warm front that will lift north over the state during the day Friday. The upper ridge is forecast to re-establish itself over the eastern U.
West-southwest winds and daytime heating have eroded the low clouds across the region, with only a few small patches of stratus lingering in our far eastern counties this afternoon. The most likely area of development will be the higher terrain of north central WI, where models suggest the greatest 950-925 mb RH will reside, and some weak upslope will occur. Used a blend of the better performing guidance sets for Min temps tonight, with readings expected to range from the lower 20s far northeast to the middle to upper 20s elsewhere. On Thursday, expect a gradual erosion of the low stratus over north central WI, with fog mixing out by late morning. The warmest readings are expected in the higher elevations of north central WI (where mixing will tap into the warm layer aloft), and the typical warm spots in central WI.
Temperatures at higher elevations of the Catskills and Northern Oneida County will make freezing drizzle possible. However, high pressure will briefly visit to dry things out during the day, even decreasing clouds especially in Northeast Pennsylvania.
Although temperatures warmed above freezing in the Helena Valley, winds there have remained fairly light, leading me and the MT Dept of Environmental Quality to believe that air quality will be slow to improve. Breezy conditions continue across north-central MT tonight with temperatures remaining above freezing for most areas. A longwave trough splits while crossing the central west coast tonight. Snowfall amounts of an inch or higher will most likely be confined to the higher terrain south of Interstate 90. Temperatures trend slightly cooler on Friday.
High pressure is expected to move through the Ohio Valley tonight. Model data suggest upper trough currently pushing out of the southern Rockies will eject northeast across the local area Thursday night. It appears the highest PoPs will occur Thursday night, coinciding with the best lift. Steeper mid level lapse rates, associated with the negatively tilted nature of the upper trough, will result in an elevated risk for thunderstorms mainly late Thursday afternoon and night.
1132 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 Aviation Ridging over the Eastern U.
319 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017 Weak cold front associated with a closed low continues to work its way into the Panhandles. This will exit quick enough with ridging behind it to allow for a warmer temperatures this afternoon.
1143 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017 The low stratus that had affected much of the area has steadily eroded in the last few hours over eastern KS and western MO. Fortunately, it looks like temperatures should stay above freezing so if widespread/dense fog develops, there should not be an issue of icing and slick roads. The other issue over the next day to day and a half will be with the the large upper low slowly tracking to the northeast. Mainly, with it becoming more dynamic, it looks like it's able to draw more moisture and warmer temperatures north into the area.