Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The forecast area finds itself under northwesterly flow aloft this afternoon as the upper low to our northeast fills over the Carolinas. Meanwhile, a northern stream upper low is traversing the U. -Canadian border near Lake Superior with a trough extending to the Mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, high pressure is centered over the northern Gulf of Mexico. A cold front currently extends from an occlusion over Ontario southwestward to Texas. As the upstream trough moves east and deepens, it will help drive a cold front into the Southeast.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS TO KCLL. 850 MB RIDGING WAS CENTERED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST INTO LOUISIANA. SOME RIDGING ALSO NOTED AT 700 MB WITH TEMPS NEAR 11 C. MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S CONSIDERING THE WARM START AND WARM 850 TEMPS. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SE TX LATE TONIGHT AND SLOWLY CROSS SE TX. SFC CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 43 A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS /10 TO 15 KNOTS/ OVER THE MARINE AREAS TODAY. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON TUESDAY.
1251 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 Thin line of showers associated with the cold front over the region is making its way across Central Illinois this morning. Cooler temperatures behind the front and partly sunny with the exception of the narrow band of mid level clouds with the sprinkles. As high pressure sits over the southeastern US, a weak/dry cold front will move across the CWA today. However, ahead of the front, temps are expected to remain above normal, with middle 70s expected in the northwest, to the lower 80s in the southeast. Deepening upper low over far southern Manitoba will slowly fill over central Ontario tonight.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
202 PM PDT MON OCT 12 2015 After the passage of a weak weather disturbance overnight, expect increased sunshine with warmer and drier weather.
622 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR SEVERAL DAY STRING OF PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AOA 2200 FT MSL WILL STAY AROUND 67-68F. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 50S. CFROPA TUESDAY MORNING WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR ON BRISK WESTERLY WINDS. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10F COOLER THAN MONDAY/S. AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.
248 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 A COLD FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK PROVIDING COOL NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A COLD FRONT. THE NAM12 INDICATES THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AFTER MIDNIGHT. A BAND OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING.
325 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO IT WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
115 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 DOWNGRADED THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. STRONG CAA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES 25-35 DEGREES COOLER TDA THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED YDA.
254 PM PDT MON OCT 12 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH MID WEEK, BRINGING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TO NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS.
A surface cold front was located out to the west of the region this afternoon. Dry and cool weather is expected on Tuesday as high pressure builds in from the west.
WITH 80S ACROSS THE SERN PLAINS AND MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE HIGH VALLEYS.
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE CWA TODAY WITH PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE BENEATH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN US. THAT COULD YIELD STRONGER WINDS (ABOVE 10 KTS) WHICH MAY KEEP TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN MOS BLENDS ARE FORECASTING.
REALLY IS A CLASSIC NIGHT GIVEN THE DRY WELL MIXED AIR MASS AND SHARPLY DECREASING GRADIENT FOR TEMPS TO ALIGN WITH THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FILLING INTO THE AREA AND DECREASING WINDS. STILL LOOKS GOING WITH THE COOLER GUIDANCE VALUES IS A VERY GOOD IDEA.
A cold front will continue to move across the area, with gusty north winds following the front. Winds should diminish quickly after sunset, allowing the temperatures to drop into the lower 50s north and into the lower 60s south.
211 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
DRY AND COOLER WITH A LIGHT FREEZE IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO NEXT 24 HOURS. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS IS BRINGING A COOLER AND EVEN DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES COOLER OVER THE EAST TODAY. LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTN BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF A KSPS-KOUN LINE BY 13Z. CHANGED THE START TIME TO 11 AM AS MUCH DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY ARRIVE TO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. WENT TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
NEXT DECENT SHOT OF PRECIP PROBABLY WON'T OCCUR FOR ANOTHER 7-9 DAYS AS UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING FOR WESTERN TROF TO APPROACH. 47 WINDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST FROM THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
352 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUESDAY AND CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
1249 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 WITH NUMEROUS STRONG CYCLONES AFFECTING NORTH AMERICA UNDER AMPLIFIED FLOW. OUR WEATHER MAKER TODAY IS SHORT WAVE OR CLOSED LOW THAT IS DROPPING OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PASSING FORECAST AREA QUICKLY THIS MORNING BUT MAINLY MARKING DRIER AIR WHILE STRONGEST WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR IS LOCKED UP BACK TO THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE WAVE. PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MEAN UPPER TROUGH SET UP OVER EASTERN U.
123 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER REGION TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY.
227 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AT THE NOSE OF AN 80-KT JET STREAK HERE IN MIDDLE TN. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR SPRINGFIELD MO TO CHICAGO. A WEAK PRE FRONTAL TROUGH (VISIBLE IN PAH RADAR IMAGERY) IS HELPING WINDS CONVERGE A BIT CLOSER TO MIDDLE TN. OUR NWRN COUNTIES WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANYTHING UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z WHEN PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES AROUND THAT TIME.
A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BEEN MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
315 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN IL EARLY THIS MORNING IN A REGION OF VERY WEAK MEAN FLOW. THROUGH THE DAY DEEPENING TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS WILL INITIATE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. EJECTING THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFT UNDERWAY AS TROUGH CONTINUES TO WIDEN ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U. MORE DIGGING IS IN STORE BY MONDAY EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A CLOSED LOW STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. EVENING MODEL SUITE COMING INTO MORE AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A SURGE OF COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL U.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE LESS ACTIVITY THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FROM THE BAHAMAS ROTATING IN FROM THE EAST ALONG WITH WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
/ISSUED 336 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2015/ (Today and Tonight) Little change in the last 24 hours to the short term forecast as a broad upper level high remains centered over the Desert Southwest and an inverted upper trough remains to our east. The flow aloft will therefore remain north-northeasterly with drier low to mid levels between the upper high and the upper trough. Afternoon highs will again be in the mid to upper 90s with morning lows tomorrow in the lower 70s over the southern two thirds of the area with some mid 70s over the Big Country.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER TODAY BASED ON THE LATEST BIASES OF MODEL OUTPUT IN THE LIGHT OF RECENT VERIFICATION. UNSEASONABLY STRONG NRN STREAM ULVL/25H JET STREAK /130-140KTS/ ACRS SRN AK TO DIG SEWD ALONG CANADIAN/NRN ROCKIES WHILE SWRN STATES SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADES OFF CA COAST. CULMINATING IN SHARP MID TROPOSPHERIC TROF ACRS NRN/CNTL PLAINS BY TUE EVE. SERIES OF MINOR PERTURBATIONS THROUGH SWRLY FLOW THROUGH FRONTSIDE OF TROF TO POTENTIALLY EXCITE CONVECTION ON TUE. EXPECT NEXT RAFL CHC TO HOLD UNTIL DY7 WITH APPROACH OF ANOTHER/WEAKER NRN STREAM TROF THROUGH NRN PLAINS INTO NWRN GRTLKS.
440 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. OUR WEATHER PATTERN FEATURED AN UPPER RIDGE OVER FLORIDA. RIDGING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVECT MOIST AIR NORTHWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS WENT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
342 AM PDT MON AUG 17 2015 VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR INLAND AREAS TODAY WITH UPPER- LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWEST. A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING FURTHER INLAND BUT IT WILL BE PRETTY MINIMAL DRIVEN ONLY BE A 4 DM REDUCTION IN 500 MB HGTS WHICH RESULTED FROM THE UPPER HIGH WEAKENING. THE UPPER HIGH PERSISTS OVER THE AREA TUE AND WED.
444 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY. BUT THIS WILL SOON COME TO AN END AS THE HIGH/RIDGE SLIPS OFF TO OUR EAST AND AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SW FLOW DEVELOPS. THE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR TO SCATTERED UNDER THE HIGH. THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NE AS THE RIDGE LINE AT JET STREAM LEVEL IS ACTUALLY NORTH OF THE REGION. AS THE HIGH SLIPS EAST AND WE WILL START TO SEE A RETURN FLOW FROM THE SW DEVELOP. I ALSO PUT A MENTION IN FOR THE SOUTHERN LAURELS WHERE HEATING OF THE HIGH TERRAIN COULD TRIGGER A STORM.
THIS UPPER-TROUGH WILL TRIGGER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA THAT WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY THIS MORNING.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHEAR AXIS ALONG THE TX COAST CENTERED NEAR THE CRP AREA. UNFORTUNATELY FOR US THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING ONLY A SLIGHT MOVEMENT INLAND FOR THIS UPPER TROF. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROF AND LOWER HEIGHTS WILL KEEP MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT.
BUT TODAY WILL AGAIN BE NEAR 110 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON) AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN IL WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS DUE TO THIS FEATURE.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. WITH RIDGING SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE BAJA. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE DAKOTAS. UPPER TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH S TX. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE WEST OVER S CALI AND THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE N ROCKIES. IT PROBABLY WILL NOT TAKE MUCH HEATING TO INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THAT MUCH MOISTURE AND ASCENT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
1030 PM PDT SUN AUG 16 2015 NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A VERY HOT AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR THE INLAND AREAS. A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BASIN BROUGHT ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS THE AREA. A COOLING TREND IS SHAPING UP FOR EARLY WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS THROUGH TUESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THU/FRI.
157 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 RIDGING DOMINATES THE REGION THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.
LLJ INCREASES AS ATMOSPHERE RESPONDS TO DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE AREA AHEAD OF A STRONG INCOMING TROUGH. UPPER JET DIVERGENCE WILL BE QUITE STRONG WHILE THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY ON TUESDAY. ASCENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY, BUT IT APPEARS THAT MORNING STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD THE EAST, POSSIBLY CREATING A WINDOW FOR DESTABILIZATION IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE VERY STRONG INCOMING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
A BROAD UPPER TROF WAS CONTINUING TO DIG ACRS CENTRAL CANADA. IT SHOULD STALL ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON BECOMING PARALLEL TO LEE SIDE DIGGING UPPER TROF STEERING FLOW. COOLER TEMPS MID-WEEK. THE FIRST ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD VORT MAX AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AND FORCING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRONG SHEAR AXIS REMAINS BLOCKED WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHER COVERAGE AGAIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST THIRD AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD IN RESPONSE TO WEAK UPPER TROUGHING. ALL EYES REMAIN ON THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. TEMPS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY SHOULD BE COOLER NORTH OF I-40 WITH THE PRECIP.
318 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2015 As synoptic scale upper low lifts north and east today, more plentiful moisture will work in from the south and east.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. UPPER TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH STAYS PARKED JUST WEST. 75 THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AS THE TROUGH BECOMES MORE OF A WEAKNESS BETWEEN RIDGE CENTERS. THE MODELS HAVE HAD THEIR ISSUES DETERMINING HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD CENTRAL ALABAMA THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS.
136 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 591 DM UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST BY MON EVENING.
142 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT.
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE INCREASES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN A WELL DEFINED SYNOPTIC SIGNAL SHOWS UP WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
402 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
WITH UPPER AIR OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE DESERT SW. WITH IS E/NE EXTENDING RIDGE AXIS RUNNING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BROAD TROUGHING RESPONSIBLE FOR BREAKING DOWN THAT RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES. CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TONIGHT/TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE TO BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IN PLACE TO THE NW. THE HIGHER POPS /ESP THIS EVENING/ REMAIN ACROSS THE W/NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
250 AM PDT MON AUG 17 2015 HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS WEEK AS WE REMAIN UNDER A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN. A FEW THIN HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUT STILL PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED.
Meanwhile, a broad upper level trough of low pressure is moving eastward across the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains. Near the surface, a near stalled cold front extends from eastern Colorado northeast into northwest Kansas. The highest surface based CAPE values (>2000 j/kg) were in far western Kansas where the highest dewpoints and highest potential temperatures were located. Precipitation should be exiting western Kansas Tuesday night as the cold front sweeps through.
528 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2015 UPPER TROUGH AXIS RESIDES ALONG THE MS RIVER THIS MORNING. WITH WED INTO WED NIGHT HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF STRONG TSTMS DEVELOPMENT AS INFLUENCES FROM BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BISECTING THE CNTRL U. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES OR SO BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES THRU WED WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
358 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MID-WEEK. A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION TODAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 18-19C AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S INLAND. A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE REMNANTS OF AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH NEWD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 80S OVER THE PIEDMONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
THE GREATER AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTH GA WHERE AN UPPER TROUGH IS NEARER TO NW GA AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE MS VALLEY REGION THAT WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WESTWARD AND A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. WITH VERY HOT CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS IT REMAINS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA/SOUTHWEST AZ THIS MORNING. TROUGHING TO OUR NORTH SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER ELONGATES OVER THE SOUTHERN CA COAST.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S. INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WITH THE SOUTHERN FA COOLER THAN THE NORTH AS THE CLOUDS LIMIT AFTN HEATING.
400 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
135 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 HAZY, WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE COMING WEEK AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION.
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 500MB LOW/TROUGH OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. BRO RADAR INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. THE LATEST TIME HEIGHT PROFILE SHOWS THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH 60 PERCENT RH VALUES BELOW 700MB.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE THE ONCE DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE IS BEING FORCED FARTHER WEST NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF NORTH TEXAS WHERE A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES.
602 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 A WARM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.
100 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2015 THE COLD FRONT WAS STUCK ALONG THE NORTH SHORE THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS TO JUST WEST OF HINCKLEY AT 19Z. EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO PERCOLATE OVER NW WI TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO VERY SLOWLY MOVE EWD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THE THUR-FRI TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT BENIGN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN. A COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY EXITED THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
336 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2015 (Today and Tonight) Little change in the last 24 hours to the short term forecast as a broad upper level high remains centered over the Desert Southwest and an inverted upper trough remains to our east. The flow aloft will therefore remain north-northeasterly with drier low to mid levels between the upper high and the upper trough. Afternoon highs will again be in the mid to upper 90s with morning lows tomorrow in the lower 70s over the southern two thirds of the area with some mid 70s over the Big Country.
406 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2015 Upper ridge will be displaced to the west as an upper trough moving across the NW digs down across the central plains. This will result in slightly cooler temperatures.
WITH WED INTO WED NIGHT HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF STRONG TSTMS DEVELOPMENT AS INFLUENCES FROM BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BISECTING THE CNTRL U. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES OR SO BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES THRU WED WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S.
U/L RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS TODAY AND TUESDAY.
300 AM PDT MON AUG 17 2015 VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR INLAND AREAS TODAY WITH UPPER- LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWEST. A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING FURTHER INLAND BUT IT WILL BE PRETTY MINIMAL DRIVEN ONLY BE A 4 DM REDUCTION IN 500 MB HGTS WHICH RESULTED FROM THE UPPER HIGH WEAKENING. THE UPPER HIGH PERSISTS OVER THE AREA TUE AND WED.
A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED NEAR 145W AND 46N. IN COMBINATION WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS.
AND TUESDAY AT 08Z AREA RADARS SHOW ISOLATED STORMS WERE TRACKING ALONG A COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF ISW TO AIG TO IMT. THE SURFACE FRONT AND EVENTUALLY THE 850 FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT IN ADVANCE OF THE DEEPENING LOW AND UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS.