Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Noticeably Drier And Cooler Weather Expected On Monday And An upper level trough over the eastern U.
Otherwise high pressure will remain the dominant weather feature through the upcoming week, with record high temperatures possible by midweek. This coupled with a plume of mid level moisture currently spreading across much of the Great Basin will bring a chance of showers primarily to the higher terrain, with an isolated thunderstorm or two possible this afternoon.
447 AM MDT Sun Apr 26 2020 Upper ridge axis currently centered from west-central North Dakota through western South Dakota early this morning. Strong warm air advection centered around 700 mb early this morning as thermal ridge spreads over the northern Plains. As warm front moves eastward this morning, expect highs today in the 70s across most of the region. Monday looks to be warmer as thermal ridge pushes further northward during the day. Additionally, our forecast area will be favorably located within the left exit region of the jet and the right entrance region of a developing jet streak on the eastern flank of the trough axis.
721 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2020 Rain will continue through the day, with the passage of low pressure. A longwave trough rounding the base of an Ohio River Valley closed low will maintain widespread rain through the day. However; cold, northerly flow off of Lake Erie, in the wake of crossing low pressure, will maintain cloudy conditions through tonight.
241 AM PDT Sun Apr 26 2020 A high pressure ridge will be the dominant feature for the first part of the week, leading to above normal temperatures and quiet weather.
Light to moderate rain will continue to impact the area through the day, as low pressure in the upper Ohio valley transfers to the coastal plain near the Delmarva Peninsula. Surface/min temperatures >32F should limit accumulation, but the latest hires ensemble data along with NBM/WPC guidance supports a coating-1" over the higher terrain of the northern mountains. Highs will be a slightly warmer vs.
641 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2020 12Z TAFS Clear skies and light northeasterly flow will prevail through the taf period as high pressure settles over the region.
259 PM MDT Sun Apr 26 2020 Upper level short wave trough continues to slide across southern Canada today. Shallow ridging builds back into the region tonight, but transitions back to zonal flow Monday morning ahead of another approaching trough. Moisture streaming into the region should bring shower activity to the high terrain by Monday afternoon.
Mild conditions for the remainder of the day ahead of the next upper level trough that will make its way across the area Monday morning.
/issued 510 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2020/ A deep upper level trough with an associated closed low will continue to migrate slowly eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
Elevated shower activity is also causing a few gusty winds across north-central MN in combination with low RH, so opted to issue an SPS to highlight the higher fire spread potential there - especially since most of the showers are likely virga. Weak high pressure builds Monday for fair weather.
Only a few sprinkles are possible as it progresses eastward this afternoon with plenty of dry air in the lower levels present. Tonight isentropic lift in the 300K-305K layer mainly focuses near the Missouri border and on the nose of the low level 45 kt jet. Skies clear behind the departing mid level wave on Monday with weak warm advection expected, however temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s are expected with the warmer temps in the thermal axis across central Kansas.
240 PM MDT Sun Apr 26 2020 Gorgeous spring weather continues this afternoon as weak high pressure yields abundant sunshine and pleasant breeziness. But this will be short lived as a quick moving cold front, presently just off the Washington coast, will spread increasing clouds and ultimately light showers over the Northern Rockies by Monday morning.
Elevated convection occurred over the offshore waters earlier this morning associated with a weak mid level short wave trough moving through the area. Clouds will continue to decrease over the area as the short wave trough moves to the east.
233 PM MDT Sun Apr 26 2020 Showers already beginning to develop across the High Plains and adjacent terrain as of 2 pm. The warming trend and drying conditions continue into the extended as a ridge of high pressure builds into the Great Basin.
Quiet conditions persist through today under high pressure. This high pressure will gradually move eastward through the day today with winds becoming southerly.
1034 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2020 High pressure at the SFC and NW flow aloft will yield dry and mild weather today, with only thin cirrus nosing in from the north. /issued 641 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2020/ 12Z TAFS Clear skies and light northeasterly flow will prevail through the taf period as high pressure settles over the region.
Patchy frost may form early Monday morning as temperatures fall into the lower to middle 30s. Rain will end today, although winds will increase on the back side of the low pressure area.
Low level southeasterly flow will gradually increase tonight as high pressure moves to the east and low pressure forms over the southern high plains. The low level moisture will increase late tonight into Monday morning bringing in clouds over the Brush Country.
Gusty winds will continue this afternoon along with a departing low, but surface ridging moving in will keep things dry into tomorrow. Rain has moved out of the area leaving only gusty winds as the effects of a low pressure system progressing eastward. Surface ridging will help keep conditions dry through the near term. The start of the week will be dry due to brief surface ridging, but a weak surface wave will bring a chance of PoPs Monday afternoon and night.
Breezy WNW winds will persist tonight as a post-frontal trough pushes se across the region. Cooler temperatures expected tonight with temperatures falling into the low/mid 50s.
The cold front associated with the short wave will quickly move into western Wisconsin by noon, with the majority of the showers exiting west central Wisconsin by mid afternoon. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few rumbles of thunder also as MLCAPES ahead of this cold front rise to around 250-500 J/KG. Behind the cold front in western Minnesota, gusty northwest winds and much drier air could elevate fire weather concerns.
Dry weather and hot afternoon temperatures expected through mid-week as a ridge of high pressure dominates the region.
A surface cold front remains draped across north central Florida and extends southwest across the Gulf of Mexico. Across the Keys, rainfall amounts have ranged from just over an inch in the Upper Keys to around three- quarters of an inch in the Middle Keys and portions of the Lower Keys. With the recent rain, temperatures quickly tumbled in the lower to mid 70s with dew points also in the lower to mid 70s. Otherwise, an upper level trough positioned over the central Gulf will eventually pivot through tonight. This will help to finally push the weak cold front southward and across the Keys tonight. Thereafter, winds will freshen from the north late tonight as a cold front moves through the area.
251 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2020 Strong mid level trough continues to push across the northern sections of the state at this hour. Not to say though that some of the higher elevations aren't getting a few sprinkles which could continue into the evening hours. As trough shifts east of the area tonight, drier conditions will push into the area along with lighter winds as well.
In the wake of an overnight and morning frontal passage, high pressure will build over the area keeping our skies clear and ushering in low humidity levels.
134 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2020 Rain will continue through the day, with the passage of low pressure. Precipitation will eventually end tonight on the backside of the low with cool northwesterly maintaining cloud coverage and result in overnight lows slightly below normal.
The main story was the low relative humidity readings of 15 to 35 percent which resulted in a greater risk of wild fires this afternoon into this evening. High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 50s east and upper 50s and lower 60s west, cooler near the bay and lake. Monday Night Through Sunday A low pressure system will develop over the Midwest U.
Deep dry layer sub the cloud bases for today, and pcpn will have a hard time getting trough that, let alone a NST. Good fetch of low level moisture transport to the feed the low pressure system as it moves in, with PWs +1". A weak trough pushes through the area this afternoon with isolated showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms.
Midafternoon GOES water imagery showed an upper low over the Ohio Valley.
Gilstad An upper trough will progress across southern Canada and into North Dakota by this evening.
Overall, pleasant weather conditions are expected to continue through at least Monday afternoon, before a short wave trough moves through the region, increasing somewhat the chances for rainfall across the region.
A trough swings through the region late tonight into Monday morning brining more widespread showers to the area.
114 PM PDT Sun Apr 26 2020 A high pressure ridge will be the dominant feature for the first part of the week, leading to above normal temperatures and quiet weather.
An upper ridge helps bring some springtime warmth to the area the next couple days. A potent closed low and strong cold front push through the northern Plains midweek. That system is followed by an anomalous upper ridge that builds over the Intermountain West. Considerable warm air advection takes over across the High Plains with the passage of a warm front and downslope flow. The first area to monitor will be the panhandle into SW Neb to account for showers and storms that develop off the higher terrain to the west. An H85 thermal ridge traverses the forecast area overnight, which results in warm air advection for north central Neb. A cold front is progged to cross western Neb late evening into the night.
Made some slight adjustments in the near-term for trends in temps and dew points, but high pressure building into the region today has the weather predictably dry and at times breezy.
1246 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2020 The cyclone responsible for the last few days of precip has largely moved east of the region, with all but our eastern Illinois counties free of clouds. This should keep temperatures in our west a bit warmer than what we're seeing this morning, with temps in our east cooler due to a lack of cloud coverage. Return flow will intensify on Monday as a weak cyclone moves through the upper Midwest.
256 PM MDT Sun Apr 26 2020 Current surface analysis shows warm front over central SD, with a cool front east of the Black Hills. Upper level analysis shows flattened ridge over the region, with upper low over south central Canada. Cannot totally rule out a shower or two clipping southern parts of northeast WY or far southwest SD late this afternoon, a popup shower or two over the central/southern Black Hills, or a few light showers/sprinkles along the cold front over far eastern portions of the forecast area. Warm conditions continue into Monday as ridging passes east of the region.
Overnight lows will remain mild, dipping into the low 40s to low 50s. Tue-Wed: NW flow aloft will prevail -- on the eastern periphery of an amplifying upper level ridge over the Intermountain West/ Rockies. Thu-Fri: The aforementioned ridge aloft will progress east across the Central Plains in this period. Sat-Sun: Long range guidance suggests that flow aloft will back to the SW as an upper level trough moves ashore the Pacific Coast -- and the aforementioned ridge progresses east across the Mississippi River Valley.
1206 PM MDT Sun Apr 26 2020 Upper ridge axis currently centered from west-central North Dakota through western South Dakota early this morning. Strong warm air advection centered around 700 mb early this morning as thermal ridge spreads over the northern Plains. As warm front moves eastward this morning, expect highs today in the 70s across most of the region. Monday looks to be warmer as thermal ridge pushes further northward during the day. Additionally, our forecast area will be favorably located within the left exit region of the jet and the right entrance region of a developing jet streak on the eastern flank of the trough axis.
123 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2020 Have included VCTS at KFMY/KRSW terminals through early tonight to account for ongoing strong convection in these areas, otherwise VFR will prevail at all of the terminals during the next 24 hours as much drier air moves into the region in the wake of a cold front with winds becoming west to northwest around 10 knots the remainder of the afternoon, then becoming north after 10Z Monday morning. Noticeably Drier And Cooler Weather Expected On Monday And An upper level trough over the eastern U.
Otherwise high pressure will remain the dominant weather feature through the upcoming week, with record high temperatures possible by midweek. Water vapor satellite imagery revealing the anticyclonic nature of the flat ridge over the Great Basin and parts of the Desert Southwest this morning.
These pleasant conditions are courtesy of high pressure at the surface sliding eastward across the western Gulf Coast states along with a dry airmass brought in by NW flow aloft on the backside of an ERN CONUS trof. Rains will come to an end from N-S through the afternoon, with cooler temperatures expected WED night due to the intrusion of drier and slightly cooler air.
There is also an area of showers moving east-southeastward off the Cheyenne ridge in northern Weld County. The low level wind and pressure fields have a mix of normal drainage and downsloping low level winds tonight after the weak wave moves through. The high resolution model reflectivity shows this evening's convection done by 06Z. For the plains, with how dry the low levels are, will go with 10-30%s mainly through mid evening. For temperatures, Monday's highs will be 2-4 C warmer than this afternoon's. For Wed thru Fri an upper level ridge will build into the area.
1152 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2020 After some patchy fog early this morning, a very pleasant day is in store for southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks as high pressure settles overhead. The high will drift east of the area tonight as a weak wave in the flow approaches the area from the west.
233 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2020 (Tonight and Monday) Warm and breezy across West Central Texas this afternoon with temperatures climbing into the low to mid 80s. Cap is strong but not unbreakable with the low level moisture increase so have included some small PoPs in the forecast. Warmer again on Monday with highs mid 80 to near 90 degrees.
At the surface, a modest low pressure trough producing gusty winds at least into the evening will sag into the Rolling Plains Monday afternoon. The main threat with any storms that do develop would be large hail and damaging winds because of the high cloud bases.
The upper trough sitting across the region has opened up while continuing to slide east/northeast across the OH/TN Valley. Low VFR to MVFR through the first half of the taf cycle for all sites as abundant llv moisture remains present beneath a slowly departing upper low. Tonight the upper low will shift east yielding veered nwly flow which will allow llv moisture to escape. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 44 71 50 76 58 / 10 0 0 10 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 42 67 48 74 56 / 30 0 0 10 40 Oak Ridge, TN 41 69 48 74 56 / 30 0 0 10 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 41 63 43 71 52 / 60 0 10 10 30.
331 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2020 High pressure overhead, light winds, and full sunshine has led to a beautiful day with afternoon temps in the mid to upper 60s. For Monday, increasing southerly flow ahead of two separate waves of low pressure will kick off a round of low- level theta-e advection with dewpoints rising to near 50 F. Monday Night There is a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms to form along the intersection of a WSW 850mb moisture plume and a southward sinking cold front.
/issued 1034 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2020/ High pressure at the SFC and NW flow aloft will yield dry and mild weather today, with only thin cirrus nosing in from the north.
211 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2020 Zonal flow aloft is expected through Monday with low level thermal ridging resulting in much above normal temperatures. At the surface a dryline just east of the mountains will sharpen during the day Monday and track into the central Permian Basin south to the lower Trans Pecos by mid to late afternoon. A weak disturbance combined with intense heating along the dryline, with help from the higher terrain, could break the cap and generate a few late day thunderstorms in the lower Trans Pecos region of west Texas.
Thus, look for highs today and lows tonight slightly warmer than those more usual for late April.
1126 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2020 Rain will continue through the day, with the passage of low pressure. A longwave trough rounding the base of an Ohio River Valley closed low will maintain widespread rain through the day. However; cold, northerly flow off of Lake Erie, in the wake of crossing low pressure, will maintain cloudy conditions through tonight.
Light to moderate rain will continue to impact the area into tonight, as low pressure in the upper Ohio valley transfers to the coastal plain near the Delmarva Peninsula. Lingering precip should end over most of the area early Monday, with the exception of the far northeast zones, as low pressure pulls off the East Coast. High temperatures will be a slightly warmer than today, but still a good 10-15 degrees below average for late April.
For today, behind a cold front moving south over the Gulf of Mexico, a cooler drier airmass pushes south over the Southeast. Tonight, cooler, drier air will continue to push south across the forecast area, with temperatures dropping into the mid to upper 40s over much of the forecast area, low 50s close to the coast. With the loss of the cooler northerly flow, combined with clear skies, good daytime heating is expected. Still the cooler air that has moved over the Southeast will keep daytime high temperatures from rising above the mid to upper 70s over the forecast area.
229 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2020 Strong low pressure system finally exits later this evening and tonight. High pressure Monday. Another low pressure crosses by midweek. A low pressure system and upper level trough will move east of the area this afternoon and evening, swinging a cold front through. This will bring an end to the showers, but could leave some very light rain/drizzle as the lower atmosphere cools and squeezes the soundings with some upslope flow. The air will become cold enough later tonight that some light snow or freezing drizzle becomes a possibility in the higher elevations of the northern West Virginia mountains. A high pressure system then builds in for Monday, providing dry weather and clearing skies.
Lake Kissimmee to Melbourne northward, skies were partly cloudy this morning with temps already in the lower 80s.
305 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2020 A weak upper level disturbance will bring a chance of showers, and perhaps isolated thunderstorms, late tonight and Monday, with the highest rain chances across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
/NF/ Made some slight adjustments in the near-term for trends in temps and dew points, but high pressure building into the region today has the weather predictably dry and at times breezy.
Light to moderate rain will continue to impact the area into tonight, as low pressure propogates to the coastal plain near the Delmarva Peninsula. Lingering precip should end over most of the area early Monday, with the exception of the far northeast zones, as low pressure pulls off the East Coast. High temperatures will be a slightly warmer than today, but still a good 10-15 degrees below average for late April.
/Issued 305 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2020/ A weak upper level disturbance will bring a chance of showers, and perhaps isolated thunderstorms, late tonight and Monday, with the highest rain chances across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Otherwise high pressure will remain the dominant weather feature through the upcoming week, with record high temperatures possible by midweek.
514 PM MDT Sun Apr 26 2020 Current surface analysis shows warm front over central SD, with a cool front east of the Black Hills. Upper level analysis shows flattened ridge over the region, with upper low over south central Canada. Cannot totally rule out a shower or two clipping southern parts of northeast WY or far southwest SD late this afternoon, a popup shower or two over the central/southern Black Hills, or a few light showers/sprinkles along the cold front over far eastern portions of the forecast area. Warm conditions continue into Monday as ridging passes east of the region.
High temps should be in the upper 70s to lower 80s along the I-25 corridor, in the lower 80s over the far southeast plains, and in the lower 70s in the high valleys and mostly 60s in Teller County.
721 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2020 Strong low pressure system finally exits later this evening and tonight. High pressure Monday. Another low pressure crosses by midweek. A low pressure system and upper level trough will move east of the area this afternoon and evening, swinging a cold front through. This will bring an end to the showers, but could leave some very light rain/drizzle as the lower atmosphere cools and squeezes the soundings with some upslope flow. The air will become cold enough later tonight that some light snow or freezing drizzle becomes a possibility in the higher elevations of the northern West Virginia mountains. A high pressure system then builds in for Monday, providing dry weather and clearing skies.
VFR expected trough the period. These pleasant conditions are courtesy of high pressure at the surface sliding eastward across the western Gulf Coast states along with a dry airmass brought in by NW flow aloft on the backside of an ERN CONUS trof. Rains will come to an end from N-S through the afternoon, with cooler temperatures expected WED night due to the intrusion of drier and slightly cooler air.
High pressure will bring mainly dry conditions for the first part of this week.
713 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2020 Rain should end tonight as low pressure exits the region. Dry weather is expected Monday before periodic rain chances return Monday night through the rest of the week with crossing low pressure. Rain should taper off from W-E later this evening and overnight as the trough axis crosses, and the low moves toward the East Coast. Wind should also increase with a tightening pressure gradient on the western side of the low.
532 PM MDT Sun Apr 26 2020 Showers already beginning to develop across the High Plains and adjacent terrain as of 2 pm. The warming trend and drying conditions continue into the extended as a ridge of high pressure builds into the Great Basin.
High pressure will build over the Gulf of Mexico tonight and expand towards the FL peninsula on Mon.
Current first period elements are in good shape with mid and high clouds expected to keep temperatures a little warmer than last night.
Wind direction will become variable over southeast Michigan into tomorrow morning as high pressure slides eastward before a more general south-southwest flow sets up by early tomorrow afternoon.
/issued 211 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2020/ Zonal flow aloft is expected through Monday with low level thermal ridging resulting in much above normal temperatures. At the surface a dryline just east of the mountains will sharpen during the day Monday and track into the central Permian Basin south to the lower Trans Pecos by mid to late afternoon. A weak disturbance combined with intense heating along the dryline, with help from the higher terrain, could break the cap and generate a few late day thunderstorms in the lower Trans Pecos region of west Texas.