Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A weak trough axis has moved through the area into the coastal waters. The cold front continues to push through Central Texas at this time and should reach the northern counties of South Texas by late this afternoon. Colder air will arrive behind the cold front late this evening with winds increasing to moderate to strong levels over the coastal waters overnight into Friday.
Expect cooler air to therefore filter into the mid state during the next several hours along with some additional cloudiness, but no precipitation.
537 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017 High pressure will continue over the area today. Today Through Friday Night High pressure will remain over the area through the short term period with no precipitation expected. High temperatures today will be from the lower 40s to mid 50s.
551 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017 Cloud coverage increasing over the area this morning as moisture associated with a backdoor cold front continues to overspread the area. Abundant cloud cover combined with continued cold air advection will lead to noticeably cooler temperatures today as highs barely reach the lower 40s. ridge begins to breakdown and a zonal flow develops downstream over the Plains. This should lead to increasing flow over the Rockies and leeside trough development through the day on Friday, with southwesterly flow redeveloping in a warm air advection regime downstream over the Plains. This should result in warmer temperatures with upper 40s possible across the western zones, while lingering cloud cover keeps areas further to the east in the lower 40s.
555 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 High pressure is forecast to keep VFR conditions across South Florida through the TAF period.
847 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 A weak, stationary boundary will remain near the FL/GA border Today, with mainly mid and high cloudiness streaming East along it, as a cold front approaches from the Northwest.
Beside the snow, there also looks to be a 3 or 4 hour period behind this systems cold front where winds could get a bit strong, especially for western into south central MN.
The cold front associated with the fast moving low pressure system has passed through the region early this morning. For the remainder of today into tonight, high pressure will be ridging in from the west. Lows tonight will drop into the lower to mid 20s.
Some of the latest 14/00Z model data are showing a quasi-stationary mid level low pressure system just inland off of the western Mexico coastline.
From late this afternoon into this evening, a trough of low pressure will move through the region.
By Friday, mid-level heights will build with westerly low-level winds supporting the eastward advance of a warmer air mass into the mid- MO Valley.
Water vapor loop an upper level trough over southeast MT/WY border and was moving to the south/southeast around 50 knots.
Today Through Friday Night High pressure will remain over the area through the short term period with no precipitation expected. High temperatures today will be from the lower 40s to mid 50s.
354 AM MST Thu Dec 14 2017 A brief return to high pressure has allowed low clouds and patchy freezing fog to return to many of the valleys this morning. This has kept temperatures a little milder overnight than forecast, which could allow temperatures to stay a bit warmer for the day, as well. Patchy freezing fog and low clouds are possible again tonight.
Dry weather continues this week as high pressure resides over California.
816 AM MST Thu Dec 14 2017 As the sun rises, webcams have revealed the presence of freezing fog in the valleys of Beaverhead County. Thus, added this county to the freezing fog advisory in effect until 11 AM this morning. Also decided to extend the freezing fog advisory for parts of Southwest MT until 11 AM this morning. Jaszka High pressure building aloft will provide mostly sunny skies for the area today. A cold front arrives Friday night with chances for accumulating snow. Areas of dense freezing fog are producing IFR/LIFR conditions at KBZN and KHLN.
336 AM MST Thu Dec 14 2017 High pressure building aloft will provide mostly sunny skies for the area today. A cold front arrives Friday night with chances for accumulating snow.
630 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 A weak and dry surface cold front will push south through the area today. An area of low pressure will develop along the NC coast Friday, then tracks northeast while staying offshore Friday night.
Tonight temperatures will be a little warmer with temps in the low to mid 50s across the region. /issued 555 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017/ High pressure is forecast to keep VFR conditions across South Florida through the TAF period.
As the main forcing field exits southern ND this morning, used a blend of the high resolution models for capturing pops/precipitation trends for the remainder of the day. RAP BUFKIT sounding analysis shows the low level saturated layer reaching high enough into the ice crystal production zone, resulting in any threat for light freezing drizzle spotty/remote at best. A warm front will reside across northeast ND/Turtle Mountains Friday.
By late tonight an upper trough will approach the area pushing a frontal boundary through. While guidance is still consistent in keeping the best rain chances offshore, isolated to scattered showers will still be possible Friday morning with the highest coverage expected near the coast. Behind the front, afternoon highs will be running about 15 degrees cooler Friday with overnight lows Friday night once again dipping into the 30s except along the immediate coastline.
06Z surface data has the cold front running from northwest Ohio, into southeast Iowa, and then to the eastern Dakotas.
A cold front will be moving through the CWA tonight into Friday morning as a somewhat weak upper trough swings across the Mississippi Valley. Models still show a cutoff stuck over the Baja of California late this week, getting pickup and racing northeast this weekend as another trough drops into the Rockies.
On the surface a cold front was approaching the forecast area from the northwest. For today a dry cold front will cross the region. Highs today will be from the lower 50s north and lower 60s south.
949 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 High pressure will build into the area today and move off to the east tonight. A weak cold front will brush the region late Friday. Winds continue to decrease this morning as surface ridging builds into the region. However, most will see subfreezing highs north of the Ohio River with mid-30s for points near and south of the river. High pressure over the region at the start of the period will quickly move off to the southeast. Low pressure will track across the Great Lakes on Friday with a trailing cold front brushing the forecast area later in the day.
An upper trough axis pushes into southern Wisconsin this evening. Weak 700 mb upward motion begins this afternoon, and may be enough for a few flurries as the trough moves across and the lower and mid level RH increases.
718 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 Rapidly moving low pressure will continue the snow overnight. Snow will end across much of the region around dawn save some lingering snow showers over the ridges. Bulk of the snow has moved off to the east as low pressure moves offshore. Have dropped the non-ridge winter weather advisory on time, but a period of generally light snow showers will continue in post-frontal northwest flow for a few hours. The ridge areas will continue with the advisory for now with the upslope help, but even here, activity should diminish by noon. Main change was to up PoPs west of the ridges for lingering snow showers, otherwise mainly minor changes were made.
With ample cloud cover expected thru peak heating and CAA continuing thru the day, have trended temps today twd the cooler guidance. With cloud cover anticipated to persist thru tonight, have trended twd the warmer guidance. Expect breaks in the low clouds to develop today. While fewer breaks in the high clouds are expected, thinner spots are very possible, allowing more heating than currently expected.
Snow will wane rapidly with the departure of the lower- and upper-level support. Previous Bulk of the snow has moved off to the east as low pressure moves offshore. Have dropped the non-ridge winter weather advisory on time, but a period of generally light snow showers will continue in post-frontal northwest flow for a few hours. The ridge areas will continue with the advisory for now with the upslope help, but even here, activity should diminish by noon. Main change was to up PoPs west of the ridges for lingering snow showers, otherwise mainly minor changes were made.
Lift over the Great Plains is not overly impressive but the lower-decks moisten considerably late this afternoon & especially this evening. There may be a brief period of light snow late this evening before all precipitation vacates the area around mid-night as large & strong high pressure spreading almost due south across the Rockies becomes dominant. The deep westerly regime that'll reside over the Great Plains Fri Night will continue to back toward the southwest on Sat as a mid-level trough becomes more assertive.
Beyond this time, models hinting that upper troughing will begin to develop across the western CONUS.
to the low and mid 40s where a light breeze was being observed. Thus CAA along with cloud cover seen advancing south will keep high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s in the north. Cooler weather and lighter winds will help give the region a break from fire danger.
Deep PV anomaly dropping south from the Arctic circle will move over Ontario by Friday morning, with the extension/trough axis sliding though the Central Great Lakes during Friday. Even after the trough passage, westerly flow off Lake Michigan and cold advection will result in steep low level lapse rates as we head into the afternoon/early evening. Temperatures falling into the lower 20s within the heavier activity assuring roads becoming snow covered and/or icy, along with the brief near white-out conditions possible.
With such expansive cloudiness across the area, temperatures may struggle to fall to the freezing point, remaining in the low 30s most areas. Temperatures will respond well to insolation despite the cloud cover, as the GFS MOS jumps 10 degrees by noon, however, respectable 850 mb cold temperature advection becomes established areas-wide in the early afternoon, limiting temperatures to the low to mid 40s across all of central and sw Kansas. The upper trough will shift to the deep southern plains on Friday, bringing back a quick return to southwest flow across our area.
716 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 Weak high pressure builds across the region today while a weak disturbance moves by to our south.
907 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 A weak and dry surface cold front will push south through the area today. An area of low pressure will develop along the NC coast Friday, then tracks northeast while staying offshore Friday night.
This feature will slide east as a ridge of high pressure temporarily builds overhead through this evening, before becoming surpressed to our south as the next trough nears from the north (extending from the low over northwestern Canada). Went closer to the RUC13 with the top down method, which reduced the probability of ice over our eastern counties shortly past 12Z, and kept a higher chance of freezing drizzle with any of the light radar returns shown over that area. Extended the Winter Weather Advisory until 9am for the lingering freezing drizzle with icy conditions on untreated roadways. The recent west conus ridge and east conus trof is forecast to retrograde with troffing gradually taking shape over the western conus as mid level ridge develops over the eastern Pacific.
645 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 High pressure will build into the area today and move off to the east tonight. A weak cold front will brush the region late Friday. Satellite imagery shows breaks in the low clouds pushing south across the western part of the forecast area. High pressure over the region at the start of the period will quickly move off to the southeast. Low pressure will track across the Great Lakes on Friday with a trailing cold front brushing the forecast area later in the day.
Also decided to extend the freezing fog advisory for parts of Southwest MT until 11 AM this morning. Jaszka High pressure building aloft will provide mostly sunny skies for the area today. A cold front arrives Friday night with chances for accumulating snow. Areas of dense freezing fog are producing IFR/LIFR conditions at KBZN and KHLN.
A cold frontal passage has resulted in north winds around 10 mph and advection of cooler air across the Mid State. Temperatures are on track to reach the lower 40s along the KY border, to near 50 along the AL border.
A cold front which is currently located from near Waco to Tyler will cross the area this afternoon and evening. A cold front will move through during the day today, and we will continue to carry increasing rain chances behind the front for tonight with the lower values near the coast and the higher values offshore.
The cold front is now to the south and east of the forecast area and winds have been below advisory criteria throughout the morning. Cold air is advecting in behind the boundary but the ample supply of sunshine south of I-40 has pushed temperatures up into the low to mid 40s. Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 29 47 28 / 0 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 26 44 27 / 0 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 44 26 44 27 / 0 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 43 24 42 24 / 0 0 10 0.
Near the surface, an area of high pressure is sinking southward across eastern Colorado. With such expansive cloudiness across the area, temperatures may struggle to fall to the freezing point, remaining in the low 30s most areas. Temperatures will respond well to insolation despite the cloud cover, as the GFS MOS jumps 10 degrees by noon, however, respectable 850 mb cold temperature advection becomes established areas-wide in the early afternoon, limiting temperatures to the low to mid 40s across all of central and sw Kansas. The upper trough will shift to the deep southern plains on Friday, bringing back a quick return to southwest flow across our area.
Colder air in place will keep high temperatures mainly below freezing for much of Central IL. Weak warm air advection kicks in for Friday with a west wind trying to pull some of the warmer air into the region, and highs start to move into the mid to upper 30s as another wave dives into the western trough, altering the flow pattern aloft. The remainder of the forecast centers around the interaction between the energy moving onto the Pac NW coast on Friday, and an upper low over the Baja. Either way, the westerly flow aloft allows for a slight warm up and weak ridging over the eastern half of the country as the wave digs in.
Another low pressure system will bring the chance for mainly light snow Friday and Friday night, with some heavier lake effect snow possible. Friday and Friday night, additional midlevel energy will slide across the forecast area downstream of a closed upper low. Due to the fast nature of the upper pattern, overall low confidence in specifics as global model trends suggest a strong baroclinic zone will set up across the Great Lakes and into the I80 corridor as high pressure from central Canada attempts to extend its influences across the northeast through the weekend.
High pressure will remain over the region today and Friday.
437 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017 A weak cold front just north of the Red River Valley will move into the region, but with little effect on daytime conditions.
Upper-level trough axis is shifting east of the area at this time, per latest Mesoscale Analysis from SPC. Scattered showers may continue north of I-80, but it will take until the pre-dawn hours Saturday for the low-level wind to organize such that our northern zones get scraped by a lake effect band. High pressure will begin to nose in from the south midday Saturday, pushing lingering downlake snow showers further north and leading to some level of clearing. Locations south of I-76 should warm up much warmer than areas further north, which will likely stay in the clouds. With high pressure continuing its northern push, dry weather will carry through Saturday night.
253 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017 We continue to look at three main features for the forecast cycle the first two being a pair of upper level lows that will move out of the desert Southwest over the course of the next few days followed by the amplification of the upper pattern over North America that will lead to an outbreak of cold air across the southern High Plains late in the forecast period. This low will eject quickly northeastward across northern Mexico today and across the southern High Plains tonight. The deeper moisture tap will remain to the southeast of the forecast area, but there may be just enough low level moisture advect into the Rolling Plains to get a few showers develop this evening as the low ejects across the region. Bigger changes are afoot with the following upper low.
The E-SE winds may result in some light snow showers over the S- central this afternoon and evening, possibly transitioning to very light freezing drizzle tonight as moisture leaves the DGZ.
Currently a lot of sun with temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Cold front moves through early in the day. Winds will shift to the northeast at 10 to 20 mph as cooler air sags into the area.
1048 PM MST Fri Dec 15 2017 The next Pacific trough will continue to move into the northern Great Basin this evening and into Saturday, allowing southwesterly flow to increase over our forecast area. Mid and high level clouds will gradually increase over the next 12 hours ahead of this system which will keep tonight's overnight lows several degrees warmer than last night.
321 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017 Another dry forecast this afternoon with light southwest surface flow ahead of the eastern Colorado trough. Broad southwest surface winds this morning will give way across the northern sections this afternoon as a cold front develops across Nebraska and drops southeast into central Knasas by this evening.
the region will see a slow increase in cloud cover as the cold front trudges slowly southeastward.
Otherwise overnight temps are expected to fall into the 20s and teens in the higher elevations and the present short term forecast appears on track. The latest Pacific cold front continues to move across the area late this afternoon. A mix of freezing rain, snow and sleet has been accompanying this front. The precip has largely ended over the Lower Columbia Basin zones, and have cancelled the winter weather advisory for those zones.
1204 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017 A dry cold front will move through tonight, followed by high pressure this weekend.
330 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017 Breezy and much warmer conditions will be the rule today. as southwesterly winds increase ahead of the next slowly approaching cold front. Low temperatures will be in the lower to middle 30s.
) Surface ridging across the Keys will be short-lived today, as the high pressure center will slide into the western Atlantic. The frontal boundary will sag to Central/South Florida as a broad high pressure cell builds across the Southeastern US. In the middle/upper atmospheric levels, a broad mean-level ridge in the general vicinity of E Cuba/Haiti/Dominican Republic will shift westward toward the island chain.
Sun will combine with increasing heights aloft and some southerly winds, and temperatures will respond by jumping about 5-10 degrees warmer than what we saw yesterday. Benign weather will continue into the overnight hours tonight with temperatures expected to be a few degrees warmer than this morning as ridging continues to build in from the west.
255 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017 Current surface analysis reveals a 1026mb high over central Alabama influencing the weather over the lower Ohio River valley. High pressure over Alabama will move over the southeastern US this afternoon. Surface to 850mb flow will pick up out of the southwest and advect warmer air to the region. Highs will top out in the low to mid 50s for many locations this afternoon, and with strong subsidence, skies will remain mostly clear with only a few passing cirrus. A 500mb cutoff low over Mexico/Texas will begin moving toward the lower Ohio River Valley Saturday evening.
1054 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017 A fractured cloud deck is present over the region with this morning's flurry activity shut off by drying of the lower levels. In fact, if any precipitation does occur, a potential lack of saturation in the ice growth zone could just lead to some patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle.
A mild and quiet day is expected today under the influence of high pressure off to the southeast.
Nevertheless, temperatures will climb into the low to mid-50s from around the I-80 corridor southward with ample sunshine for much of the day. Tonight a low pressure center will move quickly northeastward from Texas into Kansas and Missouri, pinching and eventually absorbing the preceding trough.
Zonal flow to weak ridging is taking over at 500mb, ahead of the trough moving in from central Saskatchewan ID/central CA.
1017 PM MST Fri Dec 15 2017 Current surface analysis shows warm front north and east of the area, with low pressure over central Alberta. Upper level analysis shows weakening ridge over the Rockies, with northwest flow persisting over the Northern Plains. Some higher amounts are likely across southern Campbell County, especially the higher elevations, so have issued a winter wx advisory for there.
An upper level low pressure system will bring a decent chance of light rain across the southern terminals Saturday afternoon. An upper level low pressure system will bring an increase in cloud cover on Saturday, with a few showers possible across the southern terminals Saturday afternoon. Temperatures near freezing again in many locations, perhaps slightly warmer across the I-10 corridor where high clouds should begin to spread back into the area by morning. Upper low across Mexico will begin to move northeast towards Texas. Increasing cloud cover will also keep temperatures down, ranging from the lower 50s along I-10 to the near 60 degrees across the northern Big Country.
247 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017 Cold front over southwest South Dakota will drop south into northern Nebraska this morning and spread south through the day. Some light snow mainly over higher elevations of the Pine Ridge with the front. Front moving south and upper system shearing across the southern plains into the central plains upglide with weak orographic lift over the southeast Nebraska Panhandle into southwest Nebraska will see some patchy freezing drizzle developing late tonight. Freezing drizzle sounding with saturated lower layers.
There have been a few reports on the west edge of the band of some freezing drizzle, so included that in for a few hours but do not think we will see much additional impact from it. Risk of freezing drizzle while not zero appears rather low as saturated layer is a bit deeper than preferred with this system and while dry layer aloft moves in behind this system Saturday morning unsure if enough lift to create any light precip in the fzdz variety.
The potential for rain, mainly this afternoon and evening, continues to be the high-light of the short-term forecast. The upper low, which water vapor imagery indicates is currently over northwest Mexico - just east of south Baja California - will continue to move toward the Big Bend region this morning.
A bit of mixed precip is not out of the question as there is some warmer air starting to move into that area, but chances of any significant accumulation are very low. Risk of freezing drizzle while not zero appears rather low as saturated layer is a bit deeper than preferred with this system and while dry layer aloft moves in behind this system Saturday morning unsure if enough lift to create any light precip in the fzdz variety.
334 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017 High pressure passes south of the area today and tonight.