Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WEAKENING COLD FRONT NEARS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE RED RIVER AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
1139 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 Clouds associated with a large upper low over the Great Lakes will spread into areas from I-74 northward overnight. Low temperatures should steadily drop into the upper 40s in the cooler air mass following today's cold front. Some clouds will linger to the north this evening associated with a big upper low over the western Great Lakes. However, most of Central Illinois will clear out behind the exiting cold front and high pressure will build back into the region. Winds are expected to stay up i the 10-15 mph range as the pressure gradient reestablishes behind the sfc trof.
627 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 A cold front is moving through the area this evening with the wind coming around to the north at local TAF sites. /issued 158 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015/ A dry cold front moving through the forecast area is resulting in gusty northerly winds, with a few locations seeing 25-30 mph sustained and gusts around 40-45 mph. Expect more of the same through the rest of the week as an ua ridge remains over the region. We could see showers and thunderstorms then, but models are divided on whether a weak ua trough makes it here or not.
532 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE ANCHORED FROM NEW MEXICO. THE ONLY CHALLENGE IN THIS PATTERN IS DETERMINING WHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GO BELOW FREEZING IN THE VALLEYS UNDER THE CLEAR SKY AND CALM WIND CONDITIONS. THE CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN AND GUNNISON VALLEY ALL HAD SEVERAL LOCATIONS AT OR BELOW FREEZING. THE LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN OF FAR NORTHWEST COLORADO AND THE ZONE CONTAINING PAGOSA SPRINGS WILL FLIRT WITH FREEZING TEMPS IN ISOLATED AREAS.
1042 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE THE WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT FAVORS THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS USUALLY BEST JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONTS.
918 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT. A VERY POTENT THETA-E PLUME IN THE MID- LEVELS IS FEEDING UP INTO THIS AREA OF DIVERGENCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY. WITH A FAIRLY SHARP BACK SIDE OF THE PLUME REVEALING THE LOCATION OF THE MID- LEVEL COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS MOVING TOWARD WESTERN OHIO AT THIS HOUR. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SWEEP THROUGH.
824 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH LATE WEEK.
1040 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH LATE WEEK.
THE TROUGH WAS THE FOCUS FOR HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AT 9 PM CDT. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL RESULT IN VEERING WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY. DECREASING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
613 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 UPPER AIR PATTERN IS A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WITH A TROUGH ACROSS MISS RIVER VALLEY. SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER TO THE EAST AND POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO DESPITE BE 20 OR MORE DEGREE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. FAVORED COOL SPOTS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES LIKELY TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING WITH PATCHY FROST LIKELY.
1151 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA ATTM. A RATHER DEEP SFC CYCLONE JUST NORTHWEST OF LK SUPERIOR. WITH THE NORTHWEST COOLER NEAR 40 AND MID TO UPPER 40S UNDER LINGERING CLOUDS/HIGHER SFC WINDS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
728 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL MARK THE TRANSITION TO A COOLER AND UNSETTLED PATTERN.
1140 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 WEAK COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
912 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.
838 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 Clouds associated with a large upper low over the Great Lakes will spread into areas from I-74 northward overnight. Low temperatures should steadily drop into the upper 40s in the cooler air mass following today's cold front. Some clouds will linger to the north this evening associated with a big upper low over the western Great Lakes. However, most of Central Illinois will clear out behind the exiting cold front and high pressure will build back into the region. Winds are expected to stay up i the 10-15 mph range as the pressure gradient reestablishes behind the sfc trof.
1030 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL MARK THE TRANSITION TO A COOLER AND UNSETTLED PATTERN.
1144 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR SEVERAL DAY STRING OF PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. PAVING THE WAY FOR A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 50S. CFROPA TUESDAY MORNING WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR ON BRISK WESTERLY WINDS. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10F COOLER THAN MONDAY/S. AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.
436 PM PDT MON OCT 12 2015 After the passage of a weak weather disturbance overnight, expect increased sunshine with warmer and drier weather.
732 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO IT WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
1155 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 MAIN FOCUS WAS ON WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FILTERING INTO THE STATE TONIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS AND TRIMMED OFF SOME OF THE ADVISORY.
846 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
936 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW ONE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA TONIGHT TAKING ANY SHOWERS WITH IT.
1031 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE ASIDE FROM A BRIEF BURST OF WIND (GUSTS 35+ KTS) IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE S/W TROF AND RAIN BAND THAT MOVED THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT AND TUESDAY STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS ONTARIO WILL MOVE TO HUDSON BAY LATE TONIGHT. TOOK A BLEND OF THE COOLER MET AND WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. TOOK A BLEND OF THE COOLER MET AND WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.
Lower 60 surface dewpoints are about to push northeast out of northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel and into west Kentucky ahead of the cold front. This should lead to better surface-based instability, which should increase confidence in scattered convection developing along or just ahead of the cold front mainly over west Kentucky generally after 4 PM.
732 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CHICAGO SOUTHWARD TO OKLAHOMA CITY THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION NOTED ON THE REGIONAL WSR-88D IMAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO OUR AREA TUESDAY. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE RIDGES ABOVE THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ONGOING ACROSS MIDDLE TN IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 58 77 47 74 / 50 10 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 55 73 46 70 / 70 10 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 55 73 45 71 / 80 10 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 52 69 42 67 / 60 10 0 0.
WITH TEMP TRENDS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM THE MIDWEST STATES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR IN TOW. AS A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS BEGIN TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS. THE FIRST DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD SEWD OUT OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE SE STATES IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME. THE LATTER HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODELS THEN SHOW THIS FIRST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING A BIT/TRANSLATING TO THE E ON THU. AS ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRI. THE MODELS ARE THEN HINTING AT AN EVEN STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND PERIOD.
834 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.
853 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
907 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 01Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN NOW IN PLACE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AND ALLOWED A LARGE SWATH OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO OVERSPREAD OUR SKIES. OUR NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH.
ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING LOWS THERE IN THE LOWER 30S. WITH THE HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING IN. THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4PM AS WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING (ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE COOL START THIS EVENING). THE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT TEMPS FALL TO NEAR FREEZING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT DEPICTING NW FLOW ALOFT WITH DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A DRY WESTERLY FLOW.
/ISSUED 612 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015/ /00Z TAFS/ A cold front has passed through West Central Texas with north winds greater than 12 knots reported at all terminals at the last hour. /ISSUED 339 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015/ (Tonight and Tuesday) Cold front continues to drop south through West Central Texas this afternoon, extending south of a San Angelo to Brownwood line at 20Z (3 PM). Not a lot cooler to the north with readings in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Slightly cooler and much drier air mass settles into the area tonight, and radiational cooling will allow temperatures to drop into the 50s tonight.
A COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.
853 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.
1030 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 THE SKY WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTH. (46) THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS.
718 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR SEVERAL DAY STRING OF PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. PAVING THE WAY FOR A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 50S. CFROPA TUESDAY MORNING WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR ON BRISK WESTERLY WINDS. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10F COOLER THAN MONDAY/S. AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.
1006 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 Patchy fog (mainly shallow ground fog) will continue to persist behind the cold front and rainfall, until winds pick up and advect drier air into the region. Lower 60 surface dewpoints are about to push northeast out of northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel and into west Kentucky ahead of the cold front. This should lead to better surface-based instability, which should increase confidence in scattered convection developing along or just ahead of the cold front mainly over west Kentucky generally after 4 PM.
125 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 COOLER CONDITIONS AND SPARSE SHOWER CHANCES CAN BE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE MAIN ENERGY ALOFT WILL BE FORCED EASTWARD THEN NORTHWARD AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.
ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE. AREAS ON THE CAPROCK SHOULD STAY IN THE LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON. JORDAN MEAN RIDGE WILL OCCUPY THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND UNTIL DEFORMING THEREAFTER AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVERSPREADS THE NW CONUS. ONE MINOR WAVE EMANATING FROM MONSOONAL CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE CORE OF THE RIDGE AND TEMPORARILY DAMPEN IT IN THE PROCESS.
255 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN AREAS. A RELATIVELY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE FAR ERN PART OF THE CWA SHORTLY WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING SEVERAL DEG F IN ITS WAKE AND THE CHC OF SHOWERS DECREASING TO NEAR ZERO. THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR ALOFT/EXTENSIVE STRATOCU AND ALTOCU CLOUDS WILL ADVECT OVER WARREN COUNTY AFTER 09Z. TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S ACROSS THE FAR SE. TO NR 80F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MID-LATE WEEK WX WILL BE DOMINATED BY LINGERING UPPER TROUGH OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
320 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OVER THE REGION TODAY.
651 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS MAINTAINING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROF WILL DIG ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN TODAY. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE.
UPPER HIGH CENTER THAT WAS OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION YESTERDAY WILL DRIFT EVER SO SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TODAY. BUT WITH THIS EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE HIGH.
432 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEK. AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE PLAINS EASTWARD INTO WV/PA. QUITE A SHARP GRADIENT IN AIRMASS TO BE FELT FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE BLUE RIDGE. THOUGH SOME CU SITUATED OVER THE PIEDMONT EARLY ON AND A FEW IN THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE WV/FAR SW VA MTNS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER THAN LATE AUGUST NORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AND TREND HAS BEEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN 2 NIGHTS AGO. WILL STILL ALLOW FOR SOME MID 40S INTO THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. LARGE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHES EAST.
129 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING ALLOWING A N-NWLY FLOW TO ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE TN VALLEY.
GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO THE COMMONWEALTH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONTINUES TO USHER COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO EASTERN KY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE SHORT TERM WITH VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING TO OUR EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
553 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015 Fast northwest flow continues along the west side of the upper trough centered over the upper Great Lakes.
A SEVERED ATLANTIC RIDGE IS DRAPED NEAR EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND OUR REGION.
/ISSUED 344 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/ THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO NORTH TEXAS YESTERDAY IS BECOMING MORE AND MORE DIFFICULT TO ANALYZE. HAD EARLIER THOUGHT THAT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. THE AREAL COVERAGE INDICATED BY SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS STILL LOOKS TOO HIGH. SINCE 850MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER TODAY THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.
154 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. DEEP CUT-OFF LOW OVER SRN ONTARIO WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD HAVE DRIFTED NORTH TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY LATE TUESDAY.
IDAHO CONTINUES UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MONSOON MOISTURE IS SEEN STREAMING INTO SOUTHERN NV/UT THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER HIGH SETTLES IN OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS AREA. MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER AS A RESULT.
AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SWD ACROSS OUR REGION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WHICH WILL LEAVE US WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND VIRTUALLY NO RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
651 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 LOWER VFR TO MVFR STRATO-CU WILL BE THE RULE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND EXPANSIVE LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD. TODAY AND TONIGHT COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO HOLD TODAY AS UNSETTLED NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND UPPER LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF JAMES BAY MAINTAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A PERSISTENT FLOW OF AUTUMN LIKE AIR THROUGH THE REGION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S AREAWIDE.
210 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN AREAS. A RELATIVELY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TO NR 80F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MID-LATE WEEK WX WILL BE DOMINATED BY LINGERING UPPER TROUGH OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
430 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE FLOW WAS MODERATELY AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A TROF OVER THE ERN USA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
1240 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015 Fast northwest flow continues along the west side of the upper trough centered over the upper Great Lakes.
Long range models continue to show a moderately strong cold front pushing through the region sometime this weekend.
354 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015 08Z WATER VAPOR AND PROFILER DATA SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NM/CO STATE LINE WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THROUGH EASTERN KS. FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS FOR THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS OVER EASTERN KS. HIGHS TODAY MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS MODELS WARM 850 TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS CENTRAL KS.
QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR THE TIME OF YEAR CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH. BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AS THESE AREAS APPEAR LIKELY TO EITHER START THE DAY WARMER THAN MODEL FORECASTS OR RECEIVE AMPLE SUNSHINE. ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY.
1116 PM MDT MON AUG 24 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION TONIGHT WILL AMPLIFY AND SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL COLORADO TUESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A LIGHT SOUTH WIND. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 90S TUESDAY. ESPECIALLY CONCERNING THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
345 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 60S ON THE RIDGES. DEWPOINTS MEANWHILE ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE CWA WITH LIGHT WINDS FROM THE WEST ABOVE THE INVERSION. ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING UPPER LOW. LOOK FOR A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT TO DEVELOP IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN INVERSION SETTING UP. DID MAKE SOME DECENT ADJUSTMENT TO LOWS TONIGHT FOR RIDGE AND VALLEY TERRAIN EFFECTS.
320 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY.
600 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015 DEEP UPPER TROF FOR LATE AUGUST SITUATED JUST NORTH OF LAKE HURON EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY EDGE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL PIECES OF ENERGY ARE SEEN ROTATING SOUTHWARD AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LOW AND THAT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAY LEAD TO A LEAST SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 850 MB TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAD AROUND OUR AREA YESTERDAY WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S.
141 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA OVERNIGHT THEN STALL NEAR THE COAST ON TUESDAY.
As of 07Z, a surface cold front was just beginning to approach the far northwest portions of our forecast area. Behind the front, a slightly more refreshing air mass was pushing south and east with dewpoints generally in the low-mid 60s and light northwest winds. By afternoon, the cold front is expected to progress about halfway into our area and will likely be oriented in a SW-NE fashion. Ahead of the front, dewpoints will likely remain in the 70s; with highs in the low-mid 90s, this should lead to at least moderate instability and a chance for some scattered thunderstorms.
TODAY AND TONIGHT COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO HOLD TODAY AS UNSETTLED NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND UPPER LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF JAMES BAY MAINTAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A PERSISTENT FLOW OF AUTUMN LIKE AIR THROUGH THE REGION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S AREAWIDE.
THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND A CLOSED LOW LOCATED JUST NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY IN EASTERN ONTARIO. WITH A BLOCKING HIGH LOCATED OVER NEW FOUNDLAND.
357 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015 (Today and Tonight) What remains of a weak cold front may help initiate showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Models continue to maintain a dominate high pressure ridge aloft over the region. The GFS and ECMWF expand the upper ridge toward the east by mid week; this expansion will place more of Texas under the influence of the ridge, and it will push northerly flow aloft farther east as well.
600 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD AND EDGE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP UPPER TROF SETTLES INTO E NORTH AMERICA. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SENDING PERTURBATIONS THRU THE OH VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME.
354 AM PDT TUE AUG 25 2015 CORRECTED SKYWARN STATEMENT ABUNDANT MOISTURE FLOWING AROUND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDS TODAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.