Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
939 PM CDT Thu Oct 26 2017 A strong cold front, currently lying along the I-55 corridor from Bloomington to St Louis, is making steady progress across the forecast area. Latest surface map shows low pressure over southeast Iowa, and this is progged to move to near Rockford by late evening. The trailing cold front will sweep through the CWA by about 3-4 am, but the initial passage will be dry. Friday morning, as the deep upper low settles southeast into western Wisconsin, a 100 knot jet streak in the broader Plains trough will ramp up rain chances over the southeast parts of the forecast area. Dry slot wrapping around the surface and upper low will push the remaining rain out of the eastern CWA by mid evening, before temperatures get cold enough for any flakes of snow.
High pressure is stacked over the region with low level ridging centered over northeast Florida and upper level ridging centered over the Yucatan Peninsula, allowing mostly zonal flow aloft. Model guidance for minimum temperatures has shown a significant warm bias the past few nights, so have kept forecast minimum temperatures below much if not all of the guidance on hand, with lows dipping into the low 40s.
1009 PM CDT Thu Oct 26 2017 Cold front continues to barrel toward the region this evening as it approaches the middle Red River Valley in southern Oklahoma and north central Texas. For this reason, have gone ahead with a Lake Wind Advisory for the entire CWA on Friday from 7 AM through 7 PM although speeds will likely be delayed somewhat across our eastern half due to the later arrival of the cold front. A strong cold front continues to make quick progress across the TX Hill Country into Central OK and this front will be knocking on the TYR/TXK terminal door at 27/12z.
High pressure is situated off to the southeast with strong return flow advecting significantly warmer air into East Tennessee. As a cold front approaches the region tomorrow, look for the surface pressure gradient to increase with a corresponding increase in winds.
Though highs will not exceed the 40s in most locations, dewpoints are expected to crash below 0F Friday afternoon in assoc/w vigorous mixing in the lowest 4 KFT, with minimum RHs <= 15 percent. Temperatures will continue to drop throughout the rest of today with lows tonight in the lower 20s. Dry conditions are expected Friday night through the majority of the weekend as a trough continues to move east of the region and northwest upper level flow continues over the CWA.
Mostly VFR with patchy fog in the lower valleys 09z-16z.
Upper trough rotating south out of central Canada was has helped spread high cloud over the central Plains. Surface cold front was in far southeast portions of the area at 19Z with steady temps to its north and west in recent hours. Continued strong cold air advection in the lower troposphere keeps northwest winds up tonight, but the cold nature of the airmass (850mb temps down to around -7 C) brings surface temps down through the night. Have only made minor changes to the going forecast with the bulk of guidance in agreement with northern and western areas reaching near to just below freezing late tonight. Some mid cloud is expected to reach northeastern areas on the southwest flank of the upper trough but strong subsidence and very limited moisture depths should keep any measurable precipitation from occurring.
623 PM MDT Thu Oct 26 2017 Current low level water vapor loop shows the base of the upper level trough currently over southeast Wyoming and the northern Nebraska panhandle this afternoon as drier air just off the surface is pushing into Converse and Niobrara counties.
Main cold front, currently located near a Pawnee, Ochelata, Lenapah line, will sweep SE through the area overnight. /Issued 352 PM CDT Thu Oct 26 2017/ A strong cold front will sweep across the area this evening and overnight bringing an end to the mild weather we have seen the past couple days. The freeze watch remains in effect for Friday night, with nearly all locations likely to see temperatures fall to freezing or below.
High pressure to our north slides off to the east and strengthens off the Carolina coast.
The forecast area remains under the influence of a building upper level ridge. Otherwise, expect conditions to remain quiet overnight with just some patchy fog possible in the lower river valleys. Expect temperatures to fall into the 30s later tonight, except some 20s in the high mountain valleys.
/issued 250 PM CDT Thu Oct 26 2017/ The awaited cold front is moving southward through the forecast area at the time of writing, although the cold advection lags the front by a fair distance. However, a mid/upper level short wave trough is moving quickly southward across Wyoming, Utah, and Colorado and will move over eastern New Mexico and the western Panhandle later tonight. This trough should be accompanied by a decent mid level cloud deck and the potential for some sprinkles or flurries.
A dry westerly to northwesterly flow over our area with a strong ridge near the west coast and higher latitude troughiness downstream.
Clouds later will limit the lows. Parts of the Missouri Breaks area will be somewhat warmer. Friday, a large upper ridge along the Pacific Coast will expand east into Montana and allow for somewhat warmer temperatures with dry conditions.
Little change to TAFs through tomorrow as the cold front is expected to reach BPT by late morning, then progress eastward, reaching the Acadiana terminals by 00Z-01Z. Southwesterly winds should remain around 10 KT overnight thanks to a decent pres gradient between high pres over the northern Gulf and a cold front to the northwest. Significantly warmer temperatures can be expected overnight with warming low level southerlies reestablished. Deep low pressure currently over Minnesota will maintain a southeast trek overnight. Feature will advance a strong cold front across the forecast area through the day reaching the lakes area of interior southeast Texas toward late morning and exiting lower Acadiana by early evening. A strong cold front will advance across the near coastal waters Friday afternoon and evening. Dry high pressure will then become reestablished for the weekend with northerly winds gradually diminishing.
1200 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 A cold front, currently moving through the forecast area, is going to bring in the much cooler temperatures, many have been talking about the last few days. As previously mentioned, much cooler temps will be moving in tonight, with lows tonight forecast to be in the low to mid 30s.
1256 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 High pressure will prevail into Friday.
1007 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017 Cool high pressure crossing the region will move offshore.
625 PM CDT Thu Oct 26 2017 A cold front, currently moving through the forecast area, is going to bring in the much cooler temperatures, many have been talking about the last few days. As previously mentioned, much cooler temps will be moving in tonight, with lows tonight forecast to be in the low to mid 30s.
Either way, temperatures may still drop into the lower 20's to upper teens in traditionally colder valleys of south-central and southwestern Montana, where skies should remain mostly clear overnight with light to nearly calm winds.
715 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017 High pressure will build over the southeastern part of the country with fair weather and moderating temperatures expected through the end of the workweek.
1151 PM CDT Thu Oct 26 2017 A strong cold front, currently lying along the I-55 corridor from Bloomington to St Louis, is making steady progress across the forecast area. Latest surface map shows low pressure over southeast Iowa, and this is progged to move to near Rockford by late evening. The trailing cold front will sweep through the CWA by about 3-4 am, but the initial passage will be dry. Friday morning, as the deep upper low settles southeast into western Wisconsin, a 100 knot jet streak in the broader Plains trough will ramp up rain chances over the southeast parts of the forecast area. Dry slot wrapping around the surface and upper low will push the remaining rain out of the eastern CWA by mid evening, before temperatures get cold enough for any flakes of snow.
Winds ranged from southeast to south-southwest in the lower levels and were westerly in the mid and upper levels.
537 PM MDT Thu Oct 26 2017 The latest analysis shows a long-wave ridge over the eastern Pacific and a long-wave trough over the central/eastern CONUS. Snow showers and some light freezing rain were occurring in the vicinity of the northern Black Hills and adjacent plains owing to the steep low-level lapse rates, marginal moisture, and cloud-top temperatures near the ice nucleation threshold. On Friday some weak low-level warm advection and upper-level ridging will lead to dry weather and slight warming, but temperatures still will be 5-10 degrees below average.
A low pressure centered over central Minnesota will sag southward overnight dropping a precipitation shield over the region that will gradually change from rain to snow. A winter storm warning was issued for the Minnesota counties bordering Canada due to the higher snowfall amounts there coupled with the strong winds.
However, a strong cold front moving in from the northwest from midday tomorrow through tomorrow evening will be bringing in some MVFR conditions (due mainly to ceilings) and showers and embedded thunderstorms as we go through the day. Due to this, overnight lows will be warmer than we have seen previous mornings with readings in the lower 50s across the east and mid 50s in the west. As an upper low tracks east across the Great Lakes region, it will drag a cold front toward our region tomorrow.
643 PM CDT Thu Oct 26 2017 The main forecast concern for the 00z TAF package will be the winds as a cold front will sweep across South Central Texas overnight. Dewpoints in the lower to middle 40s are leading to humidity values in the 25-35 percent range. A large trough axis can be seen entering the northern plains this afternoon on water vapor satellite and this system will be responsible for the coldest front of the season. Some freezing temperatures are possible for the Hill Country and a freeze warning may be needed tomorrow.
1016 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017 High pressure into Friday.
1104 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017 A high pressure center resides over North Central Florida this evening, helping deliver gentle northeasterly breezes across the Florida Keys under mostly clear skies. Deep layered ridging overhead and plentiful dry air will keep rain chances at zero overnight. Lighter winds and mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to dip a little cooler than last night, currently down to 67 degrees at our office in Key West. Enjoy! From synopsis: A ridge of high pressure will move northeastward along the Eastern Seaboard through Friday as a trough of low pressure starts to dig into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.
729 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017 Rain will develop by Friday afternoon along and east of I-69 and continue through evening before diminishing from west to east overnight as a strong cold front moves through the area. Sw trough over nw MN will continue to amplify sharply sewd into ern WI this period. Sfc cold front will sharpen in tandem as it edges ewd into cntrl OH Fri evening. WI sw will liftout through cntrl ON Sat as respectable low level thermal trough deepens across the wrn lakes. Low pressure deepens over the Great Lakes allowing a cold front to bring some showers in toward the end of this forecast period. Ahead of the aforementioned cold front, a low level jet overhead during the overnight hours will allow for LLWS at both sites.
725 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017 Friday will be dry, with warmer temperatures. Flattening ridge axis crosses overnight. Skies will be mainly clear early on, before some high clouds start to top over the ridge and move in overnight.
A cold front approaching late in the night will likely produce some MVFR cigs for most sites through the morning hours. Small Craft Advisory is in effect until Friday morning and may be extended to account for the strong winds behind the cold front. Cloud coverage is expected increase ahead and along the cold front. GFS/ECMWF models depict the mid-level trough digging southward across the north central CONUS overnight ushering in the coldest air of the season. The strong cold front will start to push into South Texas just after sunrise Friday morning and reach the coast and move offshore in the late morning/early afternoon. Drier, breezy, and cooler conditions will follow behind the front.
810 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017 Cool high pressure over the region will make for another chilly night. High pressure centered over the region this evening will drift northeast overnight.
Strengthening warm advection on the western flank of eroding high pressure will drive temperature about 10 degrees above the averages today.
948 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017 High pressure will prevail into Friday.
The latest analysis shows a long-wave ridge over the eastern Pacific and a long-wave trough over the central/eastern CONUS. Snow showers and some light freezing rain were occurring in the vicinity of the northern Black Hills and adjacent plains owing to the steep low-level lapse rates, marginal moisture, and cloud-top temperatures near the ice nucleation threshold. On Friday some weak low-level warm advection and upper-level ridging will lead to dry weather and slight warming, but temperatures still will be 5-10 degrees below average.
911 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017 No forecast changes planned for this evening's update as high pressure has taken a firm grip over the area. Changes are in store tomorrow night, though as a cold front is set to push through the state.
518 AM MDT Thu Jun 15 2017 12Z TAF CYCLE Relatively light westerly flow aloft with upper high center over Old Mexico. Weak sfc lee trof with return flow of moisture along a line from KROW-KTCC mixing out by 18Z.
908 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017 Showers and thunderstorms are expected today and tonight with a trough of low pressure.
1258 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017 There is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon as a weak trough moves across the area.
622 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017 Quiet weather and a cooler and drier night are making for some short- lived windows-open weather. Those storms will move out of the area by around midnight or so, but some models hint at a secondary area of development in northeast NE to northwest IA later in the night on the nose of the low-level jet. Surface winds are progged to be on the weak side, and T-Td spreads may be on the high side, especially if Thursday night storms scour out moisture.
1105 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017 Hydro An upper level low pressure system in the Upper Plains will lift slowly northeast today into Friday. This system will push a cold front through the region today. A weak area of high pressure moves in tonight into Friday. A stronger low pressure system could move in over the weekend resulting in additional showers and thunderstorms. With the cold front off to the west and pushing east. with a cold front pushing through. The upper level low is shown to generate some mid to upper level lift across this frontal zone. Satellite water vapor imagery does show a decent looking vort max pivoting around the south end of this upper low. The upper pattern will transition from zonal flow to a Great Lakes trough over the weekend.
650 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017 Upper low is currently situated over southern Manitoba with zonal flow over the central Plains. This will push a cold front across the central Plains, moving through the forecast area Sat night. Well above normal temps are expected to remain in place through Sat, although overnight MCS activity may make the high temp forecast Fri tricky. With very rich low level moisture remaining in place, heat index values will likely be in the 100-105 degree range, with the highest values arriving Sat.
1024 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017 High pressure will remain across the region this afternoon then move east of the region tonight. High pressure over the region and subsidence resulting from a ridge to our west and a trough to our northeast will bring a sunny and dry day today. Most lkly areas to see 60F exist acrs the east where showers wl not be able to mv in until mid-late morning as upr lvl ridge wl be holding tight until appchg vort max begins to flatten it.
A warm front will arrive today and bring a chance of rain to most areas along and west of the Cascades through Friday.
A warming trend will continue today as high pressure builds over the southwestern portion of the country. Latest temperature readings are mainly in the mid to upper 50s, and overall are running similarly to yesterday at this time, or slightly warmer. high pressure aloft will continue to build over the western states during the next 4 or 5 days. High temps today are expected to be several degrees warmer than yesterday's, with more substantial warming beginning on Friday and persisting through the weekend.
710 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017 Aviation An upper level low pressure system in the Upper Plains will lift slowly northeast today into Friday. This system will push a cold front through the region today. A weak area of high pressure moves in tonight into Friday. A stronger low pressure system could move in over the weekend resulting in additional showers and thunderstorms. With the cold front off to the west and pushing east. with a cold front pushing through. The upper level low is shown to generate some mid to upper level lift across this frontal zone. Satellite water vapor imagery does show a decent looking vort max pivoting around the south end of this upper low. The upper pattern will transition from zonal flow to a Great Lakes trough over the weekend.
PWATs look a little bit drier than 24 hours ago thanks to more subsidence aloft as the mid-level ridging continues to build overhead. During peak heating though we will also experience gusty southeasterly winds, upward of 30 mph, which would help to drag down some drier air and mix-out the higher dew points a bit.
736 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low over cntrl Manitoba resulting in cyclonic w to sw flow through the nrn plains and Upper MS valley into the nrn Great Lakes. Some isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm are possible this afternoon along a trough and lake breeze boundaries, but the best chances should be confined mainly east of the TAF sites. Winds will increase again this weekend as a low pressure system develops over the Upper Peninsula and Lake Superior.
Low level ridge axis will reside across the south central part of the peninsula today. This morning, water vapor imagery indicated a little vort lobe rotating around the base of the upper level trough.
1211 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017 High pressure will remain across the region this afternoon then move east of the region tonight.
One weak embedded trough will bring a chance of showers to northern areas this afternoon. A stronger embedded trough will bring more numerous showers Friday, with a chance as far south as the Snake River late Friday and Friday evening. Models have quite a bit of QPF for northern areas with that trough, more than our current forecast. Temperatures will be a little warmer today, then cooler Friday.
No change to forecast as zonal flow remains over the area before high pressure builds into the Intermountain West.
Modest ridging progged for our CWA today as a westerly flow prevails over the entire region. A few weak disturbances will bring a chance of showers late today through the night, mainly over the southern half of the CWA and particularly along the higher terrain of the Beartooths and Big Horns.
For 12z Aviation discussion below Early morning satellite imagery illustrates a closed low over Manitoba, while analysis of the 15. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies will prevail today with gusty west winds and lower dewpoints in the wake of the trough. Given the amount of deep mixing and the westerly wind (favorable directional component for warming), along with the recent cool bias of numerical guidance, have leaned toward the warmer progs for highs today. Relatively zonal flow at the start of the period will give way to slightly amplified northwest flow for the second half of the period as modest ridging develops to our west.
943 AM PDT Thu Jun 15 2017 A ridge of high pressure will continue to build across the Southwest U.
Cool high pressure was centered ovr North Dakota this afternoon with zonal flow aloft. This feature will move southeast into the Northern Plains Monday night a western upper level ridge builds with the upper level Canadian low over western Ontario, moving east.
An area of low pressure off the southern California coast will pull moisture northward into the region overnight, resulting in rain showers and isolated thunderstorms developing late tonight and lasting through Monday.
Surface wise, a weak tropical wave is located on the western half of our county warning area with high pressure to the north. See no reason to stray from middle of the road chance pops with high temperatures in the lower 90s and overnight lows in the lower to mid 80s away from any possible downpours.
353 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 High pressure will bring clear skies and seasonal temperatures to the region tonight.
The greatest coverage of thunderstorms should occur east to south of Tucson, but the lower deserts will not be completely left out. Synoptically, we have a nice low near the southern California coast with high pressure to our east. By tomorrow, the low near southern California will nudge a little further east, wrapping in a little bit of drying from the southwest.
Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper level trough over the West Coast with a short wave offshore far southern CA. Otherwise, flow is rather zonal across western NEB with upper level ridge building across the Southern High Plains. The aforementioned frontal boundary is expected to lift north tonight as a warm front. Northwest flow aloft will flatten during the period as weak mid level ridging builds northward across the central plains. The warmest highs will be across the panhandle where upper 80s are possible, the cooler highs around 80 will be found across eastern portions of north central Nebraska around the O'Neill area.
333 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 High pressure over the eastern U.
Although temperatures should be somewhat warmer tomorrow than they are today.
Showers and thunderstorms become possible across SE MT this evening as energy from an approaching disturbance/cold front moves into the region and southeasterly flow at the surface advects moisture and instability into the area. Winds will turn northerly behind the front by Monday morning as a trof remains over the area through the first part of the day, before ridging begins to build in from the west.
Cooling will continue early this week as an upper trough of low pressure becomes nearly stationary over the eastern Pacific. Outside of the eclipse, not much to talk about as we are going to continue to see overnight clouds, clearing during the day, and temperatures remaining cool the first part of the week followed by a modest warming trend going into the weekend as a ridge of high pressure rebuilds into our region. Depth of the marine layer continues to climb as an upper level low sits off the southern California coast. SFO Bridge Approach. Moderate northwesterly winds will continue over the northern outer waters through tonight as high pressure continues to build over the eastern Pacific.
At the surface, sw flow was increasing over nrn MN and Lake Superior between a ridge from PA into lower MI and nrn WI and a cold front into the nw corner of MN. Today, Expect that with plenty of sunshine and sw flow WAA pushing 850 mb temps to around 17C, highs will climb into the mid 80s, with the higher readings in downslope locations near Lake Superior and lower temps in the mid and upper 70s downwind of Lake Michigan. The warming combined with dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s will result in MLCAPE values in the 1k-2k J/Kg range. Relatively high freezing levels around 14k ft will limit the potential for larger hail. As main upper trough moves into the Upper Great Lakes on Monday night.