Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The models also show an upper level low pressure trough axis dropping south out of Canada and across the region tonight through Monday night. The lift from this trough along with more caa mixing on Monday, will result in cloud redevelopment mainly across the east. With this cloud cover along with the cooler air, highs will be slightly lower on Monday mainly in the upper 30s to the lower 40s.
229 PM CDT Sun Oct 31 2021 Deep upper low centered over northern Manitoba has been slowly sagging south today.
Tonight and Monday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a digging trough pushing into the western Great Lakes, and pushing a cold front across Lower Michigan early this afternoon. High pressure will be building from the northern Plains to the central Mississippi Valley. Low level winds of 20 to 25 kts will likely keep the boundary layer churned up enough to prevent decoupling and stayed warmer than the NationalBlend as a result. Cooler highs ranging from the upper 30s to middle 40s. The only weather concern is some light lake effect snow across the far north early in the work week, before a fairly large ridge builds into the area on the tail of the cold air currently moving into the Great Lakes area.
Highs today should range from the lower 80s across the northern half of the area to the upper 80s in the southwestern CWA. Otherwise, some low clouds will likely develop out west and lows across the area will range from the lower 60s in the west to the lower 50s in the east.
230 PM MDT Sun Oct 31 2021 Northeast Montana is currently caught in between the influences of an upper level low over central Ontario to our east and a building upper level ridge to our west, whose axis stretches roughly up the spine of the Rockies. The trough around that Canadian low will be the primary influence on the CWA's weather tomorrow, with the ridge beginning to insert its influence by midweek. There's some hint at troughing showing up in the deterministic models (GFS & CMC in particular) that the ECMWF and the ensemble clusters aren't grabbing onto yet for late in the week. In fact, the ensemble clusters keep various degrees of ridging in place over the area late in the week. DISCUSSION: High pressure is firmly in control of the area's weather with clear or mainly clear skies expected.
Temperatures are also slightly cooler than expected for the same reason. Our typically cooler spots in the northern South Plains and extreme southwest Texas Panhandle may see some sub-freezing temperatures early Monday morning when the clouds clear, otherwise most spots on the Caprock will be in the mid/upper 30s, and low 40s east of the escarpment.
Clouds will increase again Monday night as low level moisture increases behind the next cold front that moves south across the region.
The cold front has currently stalled across the higher terrain across southeast OK/northwest AR, and short range guidance remains consistent in slowly lifting the boundary north on Monday.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): A Halloween high pressure system is currently over Texas which will allow for a spooktacular evening. Tomorrow's highs will be above average in the lower 90s with dewpoints reaching the upper 60s making it feel warm and muggy.
High pressure building in from the northwest will keep dry conditions through the overnight hours across east central Florida. On Sat the low pressure system will move away northeastward and in return NNE-NE (onshore) flow will bring additional marine influence, stratocu and light showers (20pct), across the coastal waters and coastal communities. However, after the latest low pressure system moves away we may see L-M70s across the I-4 corridor and some M-U 70s southward on Sat/Sun. Cooler for lows again Fri night/Sat night with some 50s returning, especially over the interior/Volusia coast. High pressure continues to build into the local area.
By Monday afternoon, may also see an increase in cumulus across SW MN as a vort lobe rotates through the base of the mid/upper level trough with soundings exhibiting occasional small hints at weak instability. Below normal temperatures continue through mid week as we sit on the backside of upper level troughing with ridging building to our west.
(Today and Tonight) A cold front will move south into the Big Country this morning, and should stall by early this evening along a Mertzon to Cross Plains line. Temperatures south of this front will be warm again today across the southern half of our area with highs in the lower to mid 80s. North of this front, temperatures will be cooler with highs in the lower to mid 70s across most of the Big Country.
Thanks to upper level heights running near or slightly higher than average through the period, temperatures are also expected to run near or slightly warmer than average. Dry conditions are expected through the coming weekend with temperatures running near or slightly warmer than average for early November.
(18Z TAFS) The cold front is s of all TAF sites and gusty ne will decrease starting by 21Z, if not a little earlier. Otherwise satellite shows a trough approaching from the which will result in an increase in high clouds. Otherwise isentropic ascent will result in the development of low clouds aloft the shallow cold front, however their arrival at MAF/HOB would not be until around 15Z/Mon. (This afternoon through Monday night) Cool and gusty winds will subside some by evening as the cold front pushes thru the Trans Pecos by early evening. Cloud cover across the srn areas will tend to keep low temps a little warmer than referenced above. These cooler temps are supported across the PB by the NAM12 and there is agreement with high resolution data from HRRR/RAP13 as well.
Nearly all of the models suggest that the higher accumulations are expected to our west across the western and central part of the state, we could see a tenth or two of an inch of snow in southeast NE Monday morning west of Highway 77, but that should quickly melt as daytime temps climb into the lower 40s.
The next cold front now in southern IL and southeast MO will arrive toward morning as well. Lows will be in the lower to middle 40s. At 5h, a more zonal pattern will be in place across southern CONUS, while a large upper low in southeast Canada continues to evolve in southeast Canada. A polar jet max takes shape southwest of the low from the northern Plains into the OH valley. A series of waves within the jet will produce banded precip well to our north from the lower MO valley into KY and perhaps parts of TN.
Great weather on tap for Halloween with light winds and temperatures dipping from the lower 70s into the lower to mid 60s with clear skies. High pressure over the area in the morning shifts east and will maintain the gradually increasing onshore flow.
1255 PM CDT Sun Oct 31 2021 (Today and Tonight) A cold front will move south into the Big Country this morning, and should stall by early this evening along a Mertzon to Cross Plains line. Temperatures south of this front will be warm again today across the southern half of our area with highs in the lower to mid 80s. North of this front, temperatures will be cooler with highs in the lower to mid 70s across most of the Big Country.
A cold front on Monday will bring drier and cooler air for much of the week.
250 PM EDT Sun Oct 31 2021 After a narrow band of cloudiness passed through the Keys bringing a brief trace of rainfall across parts of the Lower Keys, skies became sunny with temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. With low pressure moving into eastern Canada this evening, high pressure will build across the eastern U. Aloft, mid-level ridging is expected to advance from the northwest Caribbean through the Bahamas, simply backing the upper flow from west to southwest.
136 PM EDT Sun Oct 31 2021 High pressure will approach the area from the Deep South today and will linger into the mid week. Using a blend of the cooler MOS, low temperatures are expected to range in the mid 40s inland to the low to mid 50s along the coast. High pressure will prevail across the area.
Clouds decreasing this afternoon and tonight as high pressure and drier airmass moves in. Discussion: Upper level low has now moved to the northeastern states this afternoon. Zonal flow on Monday results in near average high temperatures and a mostly clear sky as high pressure settles in.
936 AM PDT Sun Oct 31 2021 Increasing onshore flow and weak troughing aloft will result in cooler conditions through the early part of the week. Temps this evening will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s west of the mountains and over the high desert, in the low-mid 70s over the lower deserts, and in the 40s and 40s across the mountains. A pair of short wave troughs pass through today and Monday will lead to continued cooling with high temperatures a few degrees below normal and an increase in high cloud cover. Onshore winds pick up a bit each afternoon and evening in the mountains and deserts with the highest gusts generally around 35 mph.
336 PM EDT Sun Oct 31 2021 High pressure will prevail into the mid week. Dry high pressure will build over the region through tonight.
Skies will continue to clear from west to east this evening as dry air works in behind the departing cold front. Temperatures will cool into the low-to-middle 30s overnight. Skies will gradually clear from north to south Monday night as subsidence works in behind the mid- level trough axis. The coldest nights of the week will come in the middle of the week as the center of high pressure builds directly over central Illinois. GFS ensembles continue to suggest shallower and more progressive troughing across the eastern third of the CONUS, while the EC and CMC ensembles offer deeper and much slower progression. MVFR/IFR ceilings are still being observed in the vicinity of cold front, which currently bisects central Illinois.
Monday morning temperatures for western Montana valleys will range from the low to upper teens, especially for locations along the Divide, with low 20s likely the further west you go. This cloud shield is not expected to move much further north, but if it does so, the Bitterroot and portions of SW MT may see slightly warmer overnight temps than those currently forecast.
A cold front is moving through our area as of this writing, bringing breezy and cooler conditions. Latest surface analysis has cold front moving through the area and expected to be past KFWA by beginning of this cycle.
A weak cold front is draped roughly along a line from Big Lake to San Angelo to Brownwood. Lows will be in the mid to upper 40s in the Big Country and in the lower to mid 50s elsewhere. High temperatures are a little bit tricky as the NAM is cooler especially in the Big Country due to more extensive cloud cover in the afternoon.
These will bring periods of cloudy skies, light showers, and slightly cooler conditions to the silver state.
A series of minor disturbances bookended by periods of ridging will keep conditions mostly dry and mild with periods of afternoon breezes.
A cold front will move through the region tonight and provide a reinforcing shot of cool air into the region. No rain is expected just cooler temperatures and a wind shift. Expect another dry day for Monday, but much cooler day time temps.
Cold advection today will lead much cooler temperatures settling over the forecast area for tonight through the beginning of the week. Forecast soundings suggest most of the precip will fall as light rain or sprinkles, as surface temps remain above freezing. But as the mid level ice crystals fall into the lower layers, melting will occur as surface temperatures stay above freezing. GFS is slightly warmer, with the NAM/WRF and ECMWF the coldest.
718 PM EDT Sun Oct 31 2021 Aviation - Cold front passage today - Colder week ahead with occasional showers -- Cold front passage bring windy with showers Sunday -- An increase of clouds in the latest visible satellite along with the shift to gusty northwesterly winds are indications of the cold front moving Through southwest Michigan this afternoon. The influx of cold air all stems from a large upper level low that is situated just south of Hudson Bay and will be moving to the north east. As this low rotates, a number of upper level troughs will move through the Great Lakes bringing chances for precipitation. While the first few will be through Northern Michigan, the longest trough will extend down into Illinois and bring mid to low level moisture through central and southwest Michigan.
A weak cold front was moving into middle TN and central KY this evening, and is forecast to move through the CWA late tonight. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 46 67 47 62 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 65 44 58 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 44 65 44 57 38 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 42 63 41 54 34 / 0 0 0 10 10.
924 PM CDT Sun Oct 31 2021 (Issued 924 PM CDT Sun Oct 31 2021) High pressure over the Dakotas will gradually more E/SE towards IA/NE tonight into Monday. Locations closer to the lake should stay right around freezing.
We did however boost the sky cover in north central ND through the evening given satellite trends, which suggest some of the low- and midlevel cloud decks upstream in southern Canada are not diurnally driven and thus may persist after boundary layer mixing diminishes. Currently high pressure is situated from southern Alberta and saskatchewan southeast into eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. Tonight, a lobe of energy will track southeast through the mean trough, keeping the cold air over western and central ND. Monday should be a little cooler than today with more clouds northwest and central.
538 PM CDT Sun Oct 31 2021 (00Z TAFS) Latest sfc analysis shows a weak, shallow cold front moving through the area this afternoon. (This afternoon through Monday night) Cool and gusty winds will subside some by evening as the cold front pushes thru the Trans Pecos by early evening. Cloud cover across the srn areas will tend to keep low temps a little warmer than referenced above. These cooler temps are supported across the PB by the NAM12 and there is agreement with high resolution data from HRRR/RAP13 as well.
A dry cold front was making its way southeast across the lower Ohio Valley this afternoon.
720 PM EDT Sun Oct 31 2021 During the next 24 hours mid level ridging in the western Gulf of Mexico slowly slides east. Gulf seas and swells have finally subsided and will allow the high risk of rip currents to expire at 8 PM. High pressure settles into the Gulf tonight then slides eastward through the week with northerly winds slowly veering to east and southeast.
Easterly surface winds will remain light, also prevailing through the period at 5-10 mph under a surface area of high pressure shifting east across the Gulf Coast.
Skies will continue to clear from west to east this evening as dry air works in behind the departing cold front. Temperatures will cool into the low-to-middle 30s overnight. Skies will gradually clear from north to south Monday night as subsidence works in behind the mid- level trough axis. The coldest nights of the week will come in the middle of the week as the center of high pressure builds directly over central Illinois. GFS ensembles continue to suggest shallower and more progressive troughing across the eastern third of the CONUS, while the EC and CMC ensembles offer deeper and much slower progression. Skies have cleared out across all our terminal sites in the wake of the cold front.
The cold front an any associated cloud cover is now well east of the area as of 1 PM, and the expected sunny, gusty afternoon is taking place. In any case, this is just the first of several nights, that pretty much will end the growing season, and we can hopefully stop headlining low temperatures after Monday night as we enter high confidence lows well below freezing. Much of the region is going to fall under northwesterly-northerly upper level flow, as a ridge continues to build over the west and a slow moving trough moves east through the week. This flow is reflected all the way down to the low levels, which means it is looking to stay a bit on the cool side, with little to no warm/moisture advection into the area.
Update this evening concentrated on potential for freezing conditions in our northern counties. Skies will continue to clear from west to east this evening as dry air works in behind the departing cold front. Temperatures will cool into the low-to-middle 30s overnight. Skies will gradually clear from north to south Monday night as subsidence works in behind the mid- level trough axis. The coldest nights of the week will come in the middle of the week as the center of high pressure builds directly over central Illinois. GFS ensembles continue to suggest shallower and more progressive troughing across the eastern third of the CONUS, while the EC and CMC ensembles offer deeper and much slower progression. Skies have cleared out across all our terminal sites in the wake of the cold front.
Deep upper low centered over northern Manitoba has been slowly sagging south today.
855 PM EDT Sun Oct 31 2021 Low pressure will pivot northeast across eastern Canada tonight, while high pressure will otherwise build across the Southeast through early this upcoming week. In the wake of the departed upper trough, height rises and associated subsidence in the presence of dry NW flow aloft(PWAT ~0. At the surface, 1030-1035 mb high pressure over the Plains will continue to move SE, while a cold front pushes south through VA. While the surface flow will shift to a northerly direction, with the cold front staying north of the area, low-level thicknesses only 5- 10 m lower than today will support highs only 2-3 degrees cooler (still upper-60s to lower-70s).
411 PM MDT Sun Oct 31 2021 The low center defining the base of the rex block over the Pacific Northwest was filling in according to latest model analyses, and as models had predicted. As the low lifts north as an open wave over the Northwest some of that energy is ejected across the northern portion of the forecast area tonight. This general pattern will persist Monday through Monday night with another low-amplitude trough passing during the day Monday and another approaching late Monday night. The lower elevations will see rain as snow levels only lower to near 9000 feet tonight and around 8500 feet Monday night.
542 PM MDT Sun Oct 31 2021 The low center defining the base of the rex block over the Pacific Northwest was filling in according to latest model analyses, and as models had predicted. As the low lifts north as an open wave over the Northwest some of that energy is ejected across the northern portion of the forecast area tonight. This general pattern will persist Monday through Monday night with another low-amplitude trough passing during the day Monday and another approaching late Monday night. The lower elevations will see rain as snow levels only lower to near 9000 feet tonight and around 8500 feet Monday night.
Another cold front is then slated to move across KGUY and KDHT late Monday afternoon. Clouds will increase again Monday night as low level moisture increases behind the next cold front that moves south across the region.
822 PM MDT Sun Oct 31 2021 Forecast area is under cyclonic NW flow behind larger upper trof over Great Lakes. Clouds will gradually erode from the north over night as jet moves into base of trof. On the surface, high pressure ridge is draped from MT into central NE, with NW winds over the eastern counties but light and variable winds over the rest of the area. Lows temps reflect cloud cover, with cooler temps in the north and warmer where clouds will persist. Highs will stay in the 30s and lower 40s Monday and then a very gradual warming trend takes place through the rest of the work week as a ridge slowly builds over the western US.
Clouds have finally scattered out over the Cumberland Plateau as high pressure continues to push cool, dry air into Middle Tennessee. High pressure continues to build into Middle Tennessee from the northwest.
Overnight lows may reach 39 degrees in northwest Tennessee but most of the Midsouth should be in the low to middle 40s. A cold front will move through the region tonight and provide a reinforcing shot of cool air into the region. No rain is expected just cooler temperatures and a wind shift. Expect another dry day for Monday, but much cooler day time temps.
1023 PM EDT Sun Oct 31 2021 High pressure builds into the region tonight through Monday night.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid- 50s through the north and interior, and low 60s along the Treasure Coast. A large area of high pressure continues to build north of the local waters.
We remain at the tail end of a deep trough that extends from our region, poleward to the New England states. This trough is keeping the area under generally northwest winds. Otherwise, ridge currently in the Central Plains will slowly expand towards the southeast U.
/issued 313 PM CDT Sun Oct 31 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): A Halloween high pressure system is currently over Texas which will allow for a spooktacular evening. Tomorrow's highs will be above average in the lower 90s with dewpoints reaching the upper 60s making it feel warm and muggy.
747 PM EDT Sun Oct 31 2021 High pressure will prevail into the mid week. Dry high pressure will build over the region through tonight.
957 PM EDT Sun Oct 31 2021 High pressure will prevail into the mid week. Evening composite analysis reveals nearly zonal flow across the SE CONUS along the southern periphery of a deep closed low over Ontario.
1232 AM CDT Mon Nov 1 2021 A cold front continues to push through southern Arkansas. Skies are clear across much of the state with high pressure moving into the area. Tonight Through Tuesday Currently, surface analysis shows a cold front from northeast/ north central Arkansas extending to near Fort Smith in west central Arkansas. More importantly, though, colder air will be approaching the region from Canada as an upper low between Hudson Bay and the Great Lakes will send an amplifying trough down into the Mississippi Valley early in the week.
Northwest winds will continue to funnel in the cool airmass reinforcing the low level thermal trough.
320 AM EDT Mon Nov 1 2021 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Cool week with occasional lake effect showers -- Cool week with occasional lake effect showers -- An omega block in the North American pattern the next few days will keep the Great Lakes region entrenched in the downstream trough with cooler than normal air.
Temps today will be in upper 60s to low 70s this afternoon with overnight lows in the low 50s along the coast and upper 40s inland. Monday's high temperatures will be in the low 70s with mostly clear skies. A weak cold front moves through the tri-state region Tuesday and Tuesday night.
A weak cold front was moving into middle TN and central KY this evening, and is forecast to move through the CWA late tonight. At this point, the potential appears low for impactful fog directly affecting the terminal with some low level clouds moving in over the next several hours along a dry cold front which should mitigate fog issues. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 46 62 42 57 / 0 0 0 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 45 58 39 55 / 0 0 0 0 20 Oak Ridge, TN 65 44 57 38 54 / 0 0 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 41 54 34 53 / 0 10 10 10 10.
Currently, long wave upper level trough remains over the region, with a closed upper low across the Northern Great Lakes. Given expected forcing aloft and a cold/subfreezing profile off the surface, will maintain a mention of flurries for this afternoon for all but the southwest. The Northern Plains will continue to be dominated by a long wave trough/closed upper low quasi-stationary over the Northern Great Lakes/Hudson Bay region through Tuesday, resulting in northerly upper level flow over the region maintaining cooler temperatures. Trough develops eastward by mid-week, with an upper level ridge building into the central CONUS.
For Tonight through Tuesday the high will be centered to the north northwest.