Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Clear skies tonight with one more chili morning ahead of us before warmer air moves into the reigon.
424 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021 Thunderstorms along a cold front will bring rain to the majority of central Illinois from tonight into early Tuesday morning. Central Illinois is currently in a lull of activity ahead of tonight's cold frontal passage. On Tuesday, expect a cooler day behind the front, with skies only gradually clearing out from west to east.
Weak high pressure will hold across the waters through mid-week, then a weak cold front will approach and stall across the northern waters late in the week. /issued 321 PM EDT Mon Sep 20 2021/ Weak ridging aloft tonight will be replaced by a trough moving into the eastern U. For the rest of today we'll continue to see scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with the highest chances over the interior and inland southwest Florida.
Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s. A trough of low pressure will extend from the central gulf coast region, east across the area this period, with high pressure centered well to the northeast. Ample moisture will remain in this trough, leading to continued rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s Tonight, with highs in the middle 80s Tuesday.
A deep trough extends into Colorado with a 100kt jet diving down into the base of the trough. Current satellite imagery shows some cu development over the higher terrain and Palmer Divide with SPC mesoanalysis currently showing up to a 1000 J/kg of MU CAPE over the region. This will allow for temperatures to remain on the cooler side with continued subsidence bringing mostly sunny skies. Highs will once again feel fall-like in the upper 60s across the plains and 40s to 50s over much of the high country for Tuesday with conditions remaining dry. There is general agreement among ensemble guidance that Colorado will be under a ridging regime for most of the period.
942 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021 Southerly winds ahead of tomorrow's cold front will keep the atmosphere mixed tonight, moderating the radiational cooling process and keeping low temperatures in the low to mid-70s. /issued 657 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021/ For the 21/00Z TAF update, lingering -RA will continue to quickly diminish by 21/02Z, while southerly winds remain elevated overnight in advance of a cold front that will begin to arrive across our northern airspace as early as 21/15Z.
Today/Tonight: Upper trough continues to approach the region, with an associated surface cold front already moving through the forecast area. Despite some clouds, lows should drop into the 50s as cooler and drier air continues to filter in.
Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper ridge approaching the PACNW coast.
Cumulus lines developing along the islands may lead to slow moving nearshore showers and thunderstorms tomorrow, mainly over the lower Keys during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Low temperatures tonight were nudged toward the cooler side of guidance given decreasing winds and clouds and very small NBM spread. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon along the Highway 85 corridor, mainly south of Williston. Cooler temperatures and a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the southwest this afternoon and evening highlights the short term forecast. Light rain showers in the wake of a cold front were finally exiting the eastern James River Valley early this afternoon. Expect partly cloudy skies and highs in the lower 60s to around 70, with a slight breeze. Upper level flow will become marginally amplified over the Northern Plains midweek in response to deepening troughs both upstream off the coast of the Pacific NW and downstream over the Ohio Valley.
730 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021 Thunderstorms along a cold front will bring rain to the majority of central Illinois from tonight into early Tuesday morning. Central Illinois is currently in a lull of activity ahead of tonight's cold frontal passage. On Tuesday, expect a cooler day behind the front, with skies only gradually clearing out from west to east.
As of this afternoon, relatively cold air aloft combined with a mid to late September sun angle is driving the development of scattered to broken cumulus across the higher terrain of northeast Utah, northwest Colorado and the northern and central mountains along the Continental Divide. Can't completely rule out a leftover sprinkle or flurry across the ridgetops underneath those clouds through early this evening, but most of the forecast area will stay dry. As a mid-level trough of low pressure across the central and northern Rockies exits to the east, a large ridge then slides in from the west to take its place on Tuesday. After a chilly start, temperatures will rebound about 5 degrees warmer compared to today under mostly sunny skies.
603 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021 Thunderstorms along a cold front will bring rain to the majority of central Illinois from tonight into early Tuesday morning. Central Illinois is currently in a lull of activity ahead of tonight's cold frontal passage. On Tuesday, expect a cooler day behind the front, with skies only gradually clearing out from west to east.
Light rain continues in the leading edge of the upper trough this afternoon. In the back edge of the trough, there is greater instability and scattered thunderstorms have developed on the northwest flow across western SD. The moderating factors will be southerly low level winds as the high exits and an upper ridge building in.
Lows will hover around 70F this evening before the cold front moves through tomorrow.
532 PM MDT Mon Sep 20 2021 Mean ridging can be expected through most of the period, although an increasingly active northern stream will support periodic cold fronts into the region, the next being Thurs. Upper level trough and associated cold pool will continue to support sct to isold showers into the evening, being heavily diurnally driven. The next cold front will arrive Thurs with cooler and breezy conds Fri.
308 PM MDT Mon Sep 20 2021 Lingering shower and thunder activity ends by this evening and skies begin to clear as high pressures begins to build into the region.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon along the Highway 85 corridor, mainly south of Williston. Cooler temperatures and a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the southwest this afternoon and evening highlights the short term forecast. Light rain showers in the wake of a cold front were finally exiting the eastern James River Valley early this afternoon. Expect partly cloudy skies and highs in the lower 60s to around 70, with a slight breeze. Upper level flow will become marginally amplified over the Northern Plains midweek in response to deepening troughs both upstream off the coast of the Pacific NW and downstream over the Ohio Valley.
Much warmer weather is in store for Central California Tuesday. High temperatures Tuesday afternoon will be around ten degrees warmer than this afternoon.
604 PM MDT Mon Sep 20 2021 00Z TAF CYCLE A backdoor cold front will bank up against the east slopes of the central mountain chain this evening, then push through gaps into the central valley with a gusty east wind below canyons from Santa Fe southward Tuesday morning. A cold front moving across NM today will bring east winds to the Rio Grande Valley tonight. High temperatures will then be cooler Tuesday.
However, strong northeasterly winds will persist through the TAF period behind a cold front that has passed through all the terminals late this afternoon. /issued 221 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021/ At 120 PM a cold front was along a line from Clovis to Petersburg to Paducah. The pre-frontal trough looks to have stalled as surface winds at Aspermont and locations to the east have now backed toward south. Cold advection behind the front will bring our first day with a cooler than normal average temperature at Lubbock since August 29th. The main story for the middle of this week will be a pleasant glimpse of fall-like weather conditions as we remain under northwesterly flow aloft with slowly building upper level ridging to our west.
By midweek increasing high pressure across the the region will allow for a slight warming trend with continued dry conditions. Those high clouds will be too late to affect temperatures much with highs nearing 100 degrees across most of the lower desert. Warm and dry conditions are forecast for much of the week as high pressure builds over the western US. Ensemble guidance shows the ridge strengthening to seasonally anomalous heights by midweek.
Lingering shower and thunder activity ends by this evening and skies begin to clear as high pressures begins to build into the region.
Additional showers and storms will occur tomorrow afternoon into the evening ahead of a cold front. Overnight lows will mainly be in the lower 70s. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be possible on Tuesday as moisture increases out ahead of an approaching cold front.
400 PM PDT Mon Sep 20 2021 After a cool, wet, and breezy weekend, the Inland Northwest will become warmer and drier.
753 PM MDT Mon Sep 20 2021 Lingering shower and thunder activity ends by this evening and skies begin to clear as high pressures begins to build into the region.
A moist airmass remains in place and lows will only dip a bit further, into the lower 70s F. Overnight lows will mainly be in the lower 70s. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be possible on Tuesday as moisture increases out ahead of an approaching cold front.
657 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021 For the 21/00Z TAF update, lingering -RA will continue to quickly diminish by 21/02Z, while southerly winds remain elevated overnight in advance of a cold front that will begin to arrive across our northern airspace as early as 21/15Z. /Tonight through Tuesday Night/ The main synoptic feature impacting the short-term period will be a cold front that will move across the region on Tuesday. Overnight low temperatures forecast to fall into the lower 70s tonight.
Still, it wouldn't be unheard of to see much of this end up falling apart with sunset and only higher clouds passing behind main trough. Prior to this, we'll see a warming trend as upper ridge migrates from the north and central Rockies.
222 PM PDT Mon Sep 20 2021 After a cool, wet, and breezy weekend, the Inland Northwest will become warmer and drier.
A cold front is rapidly approaching the area from the NW. A few showers have popped across NE OK at this time thanks to the incoming cold front. /Issued 205 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021/ The main forecast concerns are all bunched together in the first 24 hours of the forecast, associated with the first strong cold front of the season that is knocking on our doorstep at the moment. The high instability will lead to the potential for an isolated severe storm or two, with damaging downburst winds being the main concern given the high DCAPEs and favorable forecast soundings.
This lead system will push an associated cold front across north Florida late Wednesday.
Did go along with MPX/DLH and so more 25 percentile NBM temps for lows in my east, 2-4 degrees cooler than straight blended model guidance.
Meanwhile, the main upper lvl trof wl swing thru the region late today and tngt, with some lingering post-fntl rain chcs in the fcst. Cooler and much drier airmass wl prevail for Wed.
234 AM MDT Tue Sep 21 2021 This morning does appear to be the last really cold morning before things start to moderate throughout the week as high pressure will serve as the dominant feature in the forecast.
By late afternoon, a strong cold front will enter our northwest counties with an accompanying broken line of showers and thunderstorms. Behind this first line of storms, additional post-frontal showers and a few thunderstorms are expected overnight as the main upper trough axis moves slowly overhead. Tomorrow looks to be quite a raw, blustery first day of Fall as the aforementioned upper trough axis cuts off into an upper low over the Ohio Valley just to our north. Strong CAA on the southwest side of the low will bring wraparound clouds, scattered showers, and gusty northwest winds to much of the forecast area through the day before moving out by evening.
/issued 221 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021/ At 120 PM a cold front was along a line from Clovis to Petersburg to Paducah. The pre-frontal trough looks to have stalled as surface winds at Aspermont and locations to the east have now backed toward south. Cold advection behind the front will bring our first day with a cooler than normal average temperature at Lubbock since August 29th. The main story for the middle of this week will be a pleasant glimpse of fall-like weather conditions as we remain under northwesterly flow aloft with slowly building upper level ridging to our west. Through the rest of the work week, temperatures will once again rise to levels slightly above normal as upper level ridging gradually builds eastward overhead.
That said there are some weak elevated showers currently across the far NE and the upper trough is also producing a mid level cloud deck that will spread across much of the area before clearing around mid day. Another high pressure surge assoc w/ the upper trough progression across the plains is ongoing and models show a 35-45 kt H85 LLJ early this morning across the east. Winds will increase as some mixing occurs after sunrise with breezy conditions developing the first half of the day before high pressure settles into the region allowing a decrease in winds through the aftn. As the the low level high center shifts east, return flow will develop and might even see winds just shy of breezy levels across the west further from the high center.
WV imagery indicates an upper level trough of low pressure edging east through the Dakotas. Near the surface, high pressure extends from the high plains of eastern Wyoming into eastern Colorado and western Kansas. Behind a cold front that is now through the CWA, strong north winds and cooler temperatures are expected for the short term period. This will relax towards sunset as high pressure builds in from the northwest to 15-25 mph. 10-20 mph winds expected Tuesday as the gradient is much more relaxed as the aforementioned front is further to the southeast and high pressure takes over southwest Kansas.
145 AM MDT Tue Sep 21 2021 Water vapor shows upper trof shifting from the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest, with upper ridge building from the Pac NW into the Northern Rockies. Upper ridge building in will dominate our weather through midweek, with dry and warming conditions.
Tranquil conditions will continue today into tonight as weak ridging aloft fills in across the Intermountain West behind an upper level trough shifting east across the Central Plains. High pressure spreading south-southeast through the Western High Plains will reinforce a much cooler air mass across western Kansas, holding H85 temperatures around 12-15C. An ongoing dry pattern will continue through the end of the week as weak ridging aloft moves out of the Colorado Rockies into the Central Plains while a much drier air mass in the lower levels remains settled across the high plains of western Kansas. This will help pull slightly warmer air up into western Kansas pushing highs well up into the mid/upper 70s(F) in central Kansas and much of southwest Kansas.
Lingering shower and thunder activity ends by this evening and skies begin to clear as high pressures begins to build into the region. The weather producer of the last couple days, moves eastward out of the area, and upper level ridging gradually becomes the dominant feature for The Treasure State. The exiting Pacific trough continues to bring an unsettled northwesterly flow aloft for broken clouds, isolated showers/thunder, and another day of below average temperatures. Showers should quickly end by sunset and partial clearing is expected to take place tonight as high pressure begins to build back over the Northern Rockies. Temperatures will cool to the 20s and 30s for most areas, with colder readings in the higher valleys along the Divide and southwest MT. Frost and freezing temperatures will be most widespread in the southwest.
Our much anticipated cold front is expected to move through the region today. /issued 942 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021/ Southerly winds ahead of tomorrow's cold front will keep the atmosphere mixed tonight, moderating the radiational cooling process and keeping low temperatures in the low to mid-70s.
As of early this morning, a surface cold front has pushed south and east to the Arkansas Ozarks to the St Louis area, advecting in much cooler and drier air into the region. One final piece of ascent associated with the approaching upper trough, currently seen upstream in the form of a mid-level cloud deck around 10kft with light rain showers, will pass across the area this morning.
316 AM CDT Tue Sep 21 2021 The long forecast cold front to start this week had finally moved completely through the area this morning. Quiet weather is expected today as the cooler air moves into the area. Clouds are expected to remain across parts of the area through the morning, leading to potentially cooler day across the area. Guidance is spread on temps today as raw models say go colder, especially the CAMs, and the BC models and NBM say go warmer.
Low-level northwest flow throughout the day will continue to provide this cooler and drier air, with dewpoint temperatures in the 40s and high temperatures in the 60s. The upper-level trough eventually passes and amplifies over our forecast area tonight before becoming cutoff over western Illinois. Minimum temperatures tonight drop to 40s except for our common cold spots which reach the high 30s. The cutoff upper-level low progresses east towards the Ohio River Valley on Wednesday, as a ridge builds into the Northern Plains.
(Today and tonight) A strong cold front has started to work it's way through the northern portions of our area from northwest to southeast, bringing a shift from warm southerly winds, to cool and gusty northeasterly winds this morning and afternoon. Expect cooler and mostly dry conditions today with high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and overnight lows in the 50s.
Cold front has moved into southeast Oklahoma near a Webbers Falls. Additional thunderstorms have developed across far northeast Oklahoma in association with main upper trough/stronger forcing. An isolated strong storm will remain possible over the next few hours as cold front pushes southeast with elevated instability in the 1000-2000 J/KG range.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): A strong 500mb trough over the Plains this morning will continue to move eastward through the forecast period. The associated cold front currently across northern Texas will push southward into central Texas this afternoon. The cold front is expected move into northern ranchlands around midnight and through the Rio Grande Valley around daybreak. Otherwise, cooler and drier air filters into the region on Wednesday.
A quick moving cold front will pass through the Northern Rockies on Wednesday, pushing temperatures briefly above normal and yielding an afternoon of gusty winds. The north-south stretching of the upper level trough will lead to the front being largely dry, producing mainly a temporary increase in cloud cover.
A cold front starts moving across the Mississippi Delta Tuesday evening, then across the forecast area late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Even with the high moisture airmass shifting east of the forecast area, guidance is advertising precipitable h20 values remaining in the 1. Ahead of the coming front, temperatures around to a bit above seasonal norms continue, with low temperatures in the low to mid 70s tonight and upper 60s to mid 70s expected Wednesday night as cooler air behind the front starts to move across the forecast area. High temperatures in the low to mid 80s are expected Tuesday. Wednesday will see temperatures dropping to below seasonal norms as cooler air continues to move over the forecast area.
The 500mb trough currently extends from eastern MN through Nebraska into eastern CO which will progress eastward today and extend over the Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley by late this evening.
225 AM MDT Tue Sep 21 2021 Upper ridging will slide into the northern Rockies today and Wednesday. Today will have highs in the lower 70s and Wednesday will have temperatures in the lower to mid 80s for the warmest day of the week. A weak cold front will cross the area Wednesday night.
A cold front is still on track to slowly progress east through the area later tonight through Tuesday evening as the mean flow becomes more aligned with it.
945 PM PDT Mon Sep 20 2021 After a cool, wet, and breezy weekend, the Inland Northwest will become warmer and drier.
Widespread and steady rain for Wednesday as a cold front approaches and crosses the region. The upper Midwest trough will continue to deepen and dig eastward into Wednesday as the warm moist southwest flow strengthens. A surface cold front, ahead of the occluded system will also cross the region Wednesday afternoon.
Currently, long wave upper level trough moving east across the Great Plains region, with upper level ridging across the western CONUS.
310 AM CDT Tue Sep 21 2021 Early morning satellite imagery shows the upper level trough continuing to swing through the region, as evident by upper level clouds off to the east streaming northwards while areas out west have them moving southeastwards. With no strong WAA or CAA to alter our airmass, temperatures today will remain on the cooler side with highs in the mid to upper 60s. With calm winds and clear skies, radiational cooling should bring temperatures down into the lower 40s. Weak ridging aloft further attempts to help warm temperatures up, but alas we'll likely only get to the lower 70s for areas east of I-29, while areas out west in central SD will get into the upper 70s where conditions will be a touch breezier.
(06Z TAFS) A cold front has just arrived at MAF, and will be through the remaining TAF sites over the next few hours. Hennig (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Currently, a cold front has moved through southeastern New Mexico and is located along a line from Guadalupe Pass to McCamey and Big Lake. Yesterday was almost certainly our last hundred degree day of the year here at MAF with this cold front bringing in temperatures that will struggle this afternoon to reach 80 degrees in most locations north of I-10.
1211 AM CDT Tue Sep 21 2021 Thunderstorms along a cold front will bring rain to the majority of central Illinois from tonight into early Tuesday morning. Central Illinois is currently in a lull of activity ahead of tonight's cold frontal passage. On Tuesday, expect a cooler day behind the front, with skies only gradually clearing out from west to east. The upper trough is expected to be nearly overhead on Wednesday morning with breezy northwest winds and temperatures in the 60s much of the day.
By midweek increasing high pressure across the the region will allow for a slight warming trend with continued dry conditions. Those high clouds will be too late to affect temperatures much with highs nearing 100 degrees across most of the lower desert. Warm and dry conditions are forecast for much of the week as high pressure builds over the western US. Ensemble guidance shows the ridge strengthening to seasonally anomalous heights by midweek. Fortunately, overnight lows will stay seasonable in the low to upper 70s. Signals suggest the warming trend will be short-lived as guidance brings Pacific troughing back into the region. There are scenarios that could support precipitation chances if deep troughing with a subtropical moisture tap develops but other solutions favor broad and less significant troughing that is drier.
Warm and dry conditions will persist for the next several days as an upper level high continues to strengthen. Model guidance is suggesting a stable layer will be present near 600 hPa, with the low-level mixed layer likely unable to deepen sufficiently to mix out past 600 hPa or so. This will mean that the lower levels will not totally reflect the anomalous mid level warmth. Fortunately, overnight lows will stay seasonable in the low to upper 70s.