Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
343 AM CST Mon Dec 26 2016 A classic mid-latitude cyclone will continue to exit the area to the northeast today. As colder temperatures filter into the region on the backside of the low, the combination of the gusty winds and light snow is producing blizzard conditions east of our current blizzard warning. While the high wind warning continues until 18Z, there will likely be a transition period between 12-18Z when a wind advisory maybe more appropriate.
1214 AM CST Mon Dec 26 2016 Central and western North Dakota meeting the criteria for blizzard most areas west of a Jamestown to Mobridge line. Still getting freezing rain southeast. Starting to see scattered lightning across south central North Dakota between Mobridge SD and Linton ND. Otherwise concerns about the timing of freezing rain to snow southeast. Its possible the precipitation (rain/freezing rain/sleet) will trail off before the snow and winds increases late tonight. Snow, some of it heavy, was falling over most of the forecast area outside of the southern James River Valley where freezing rain continued. Colder behind the exiting storm, warmer for mid week, then colder again to end the week into the New Year's Holiday Weekend.
In the midlevels, the potent trough responsible for Sunday's showers is currently situated over western Minnesota, and should continue to move northeast and away from the area. As that trough moves away from the area the mid level flow will flatten out and become predominantly zonal for the next several days.
Damaging Wind Gusts continue for the southeast Mountains Intense upper low center now over NE CO/SW NE will continue to lift off to the northeast this evening which will allow surface pressure gradient to relax across the plains a bit with winds dropping below high wind criteria across the plains after 5 PM. concerned that there will be a couple more hours of high winds along the lower eastern slopes of the southeast mountains and interstate 25 corridor this evening. so have extended the high wind warnings through 03z. northwest flow on the back side of the upper low is also providing some continued orographic forcing.
Otherwise, clear skies will prevail with overnight lows ranging from the lower 20s northwest to near freezing southeast.
408 AM EST Mon Dec 26 2016 Temperatures will continue rising into the 50s this morning ahead of an approaching cold front.
Early morning temperatures were in the low to mid 60s. The upper level high over Florida that extended into TN yesterday will weaken as a trough pushes in from the northwest, along with an approaching surface cold front.
A rather cool Christmas Day area wide with highs at the lower elevations mostly in the 40s and 50s. In the mountains where there was snow cover, the highs were in the 20s and 30s. Can't rule out some patchy areas of fog/freezing fog overnight, especially east and south of Tucson.
Winds will pick up as we go through the overnight and during the day on Monday as surface pressure gradient tightens up out ahead of approaching cold front that is just now entering northwest Arkansas. It looks like the bulk of energy with this system gets wrapped up in the cyclone well off to our north.
Skies will remain partly cloudy overnight as a low pressure system passing southward offshore sends some mid and high cloudiness over our area.
400 AM CST Mon Dec 26 2016 Southeast Texas is off to another very warm start to the day with 3 AM temperatures in the lower to mid 70s that are not expected to fall more than a degree or two before sunrise.
233 AM CST Mon Dec 26 2016 The vicious cyclone that has been the "Star Of The Show" for about the past 4 days was centered over the Southeast ND/Western MN border at 2 AM CST and continues to lift northeast. The upper deck wave will push a cold front southeast across KS Wed Night but with moisture lacking only a wind shift would signal the front's arrival/passage. Thu-Fri Night: All will remain quiet as fairly strong high pressure moves south- east across KS. The GFS & ECMWF diverge considerably next Sat Night & Sun with the GFS forming a cut-off low over Southern CA whereas the ECMWF shows the afore-mentioned mid-upper trof deepening considerably as it crosses the lower Mississippi Valley Sun Morning.
305 AM CST Mon Dec 26 2016 A line of showers with an embedded clap of thunder or two has pushed generally east of the highway 65 corridor this morning. Although a cold frontal boundary should push through the area, we should remain mild today. As the fairly intense storm currently positioned across the Dakotas moves northeastward, a second cold frontal boundary will push through the area later today/tonight, which will shift our surface winds to northwesterly allowing for a cooler air mass to filter into the region overnight.
A cold front was currently extending from central Iowa through western Missouri and into central Texas. As the cold front continues to move east today, it should get close to the forecast area by this evening. Temperatures will remain well above normal today with highs in the low to mid 70s.
1204 AM EST Mon Dec 26 2016 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north through Monday night.
257 AM MST Mon Dec 26 2016 Latest upper air analysis shows the closed low of the storm system, which affected the Tri-State Area yesterday, is continuing to lift northeast over the Northern Plains. South of the closed low a zonal flow pattern has developed over the Tri-State Area. Today a subtle short wave trough will move through the zonal flow over the Tri-State Area. However dry environment behind the storm system will only allow a few clouds to develop as the short wave trough moves through. Am anticipating cooler highs there due to the snow cover.
As showers have decreased, low cloud ceilings have begun to develop especially over the higher terrain of northern Arizona where temperature-dew point spreads are small.
An upper trough will gradually shift south of the region the next couple days.
Dynamics in the environment ahead of the trough will be good with some decent shear. Initial cold front is progged to push into northwest Utah early this evening before stalling. The front finally gets moving again Thursday afternoon/evening as the main trough moves in.
759 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2016 Aviation A warm front stretches this morning from the Minnesota/Iowa border southeast into portions of Central Illinois. The warm front will lift north today into Southern Lower Michigan which will increase our chances for some showers and thunderstorms.
/issued 329 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016/ Have an upper level ridge centered over TX with an upper trough moving onto the NW Coast.
1026 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2016 High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern through Thursday with dry and unseasonably warm conditions.
/Issued 257 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016/ The good news is that the temperatures will be cooler than those that were recorded yesterday and that the surface dew points will also be lower. The bad news is that the high temperatures this afternoon will generally be 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. The unseasonably warm temperatures will be the main concern for the remainder of the work week as high pressure at the surface and aloft prevails. After the hot and dry work week, a wet and cooler weekend looks to be on tap for eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as an upper level low currently just off the Oregon coast gains strength as it moves across the rockies and makes slow progress into the plains as the upper level pattern becomes much more amplified.
942 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016 High pressure and aloft will provide plenty of sunshine today and temps into the 90s. /issued 519 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016/ High pressure at the surface and aloft will yield yet another warm and dry day across the region today. After a coolish start in the upper 60s/lower 70s, plenty of sun and the relatively dry airmass will result in afternoon highs reaching the lower/mid 90s. Small rain chances return tomorrow as the surface/low level ridge shifts eastward allowing at least shallow moisture to return amid the southeasterly onshore flow.
1221 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2016 A surface pressure trough near the coast and upper low over the area will continue through Thursday.
727 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2016 High pressure will give dry and warm weather for the rest of the work week. With nearly maximum insolation Wednesday under dry high pressure temperatures will again warm into the lower and mid 80s. Minimal change to the long wave pattern is progged through late week with flat ridging dominating the Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Regions.
Mid/upper low will continue to meander across the Carolinas today with the trough axis across the far southeast zones. Drier air on the back side of the trough will tend to limit convection especially across much of southeast Ga and western Fl zones with isolated to scattered mainly afternoon showers/storms elsewhere associated with the seabreezes and where there will be more moisture. Winds will be north to northeast 10 to 15 knots in the wake of a frontal trough.
Otherwise, expect VFR flying conditions throughout the TAF period as a ridge of high pressure continues to build from the west.
Cooler and breezy conditions will set up over our area today.
1229 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2016 A surface pressure trough near the coast and upper low over the area will continue through Thursday.
Temperatures generally ranged from the upper 50s to the lower to middle 60s. High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to strongly influence our weather in the near term. Lows tonight will drop back into the lower-middle 60s. Highs on Thursday will likely top out in the upper 80s to the lower 90s.
High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft is forecast through the period producing dry, warm, and humid conditions.
(Issued 509 AM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016) Tranquil weather conditions prevail across the local area once again this morning, provided by deep-layer northeasterly flow between a cutoff upper low situated across coastal portions of NC/SC and a mid- tropospheric high centered across northern TX. The combination of clear skies and light winds has allowed temperatures to fall into the u50s/l60s in outlying areas, with readings a few degrees warmer in the larger metropolitan locations.
Latest guidance indicates that the ridge is going to be strong enough over the area to keep the backdoor wedge on Thursday from getting the best moisture into the area.
Area soundings reveal a capped and rather dry airmass over the Tennessee Valley region this morning (Precipitable Water ~ an inch) as the mid level ridge maintains subsident, anticyclonic flow. KDW (Issued 607 AM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016) (Issued 509 AM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016) Tranquil weather conditions prevail across the local area once again this morning, provided by deep-layer northeasterly flow between a cutoff upper low situated across coastal portions of NC/SC and a mid- tropospheric high centered across northern TX. The combination of clear skies and light winds has allowed temperatures to fall into the u50s/l60s in outlying areas, with readings a few degrees warmer in the larger metropolitan locations.
732 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2016 High pressure will remain in control of the weather across the region into Thursday.
/issued 519 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016/ High pressure at the surface and aloft will yield yet another warm and dry day across the region today. After a coolish start in the upper 60s/lower 70s, plenty of sun and the relatively dry airmass will result in afternoon highs reaching the lower/mid 90s. Small rain chances return tomorrow as the surface/low level ridge shifts eastward allowing at least shallow moisture to return amid the southeasterly onshore flow.
605 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016 /12Z TAFS/ Upper level high pressure will continue to dominate West Central Texas with dry conditions and light winds. /issued 434 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016/ (Today and Tonight) Upper ridging will continue to dominate the state of Texas through tonight, with the center of the upper ridge over the forecast area. Afternoon highs today will be in the mid 90s, around 10 degrees warmer than normal. Morning lows tomorrow will mostly be in the upper 60s, around 5 degrees warmer than normal.
Water vapor imagery shows an upper low circulating off the Washington coast with an intensifying 300mb jet on the back side of the upper low/trough. This will continue today, then abate somewhat tonight as the upper trough shifts a bit farther south and transitions from positively tilted to neutral.
In addition, a trough boundary will likely set up across part of northwest Wisconsin tonight, providing a focus for showers (and maybe some thunder) tonight into Thursday. A trough boundary will likely develop from southern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin, providing an area of enhanced low level frontogenesis. The boundary will shift east and south late tonight into Thursday, generally shifting the showers and thunder to the south and east, as high pressure and drier air build into the region.
1046 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016 Temperatures are quickly warming throughout the ArkLaMiss this morning as an upper ridge remains parked over the eastern half of the United States. With an upper level ridge of high pressure remaining in place over the region for the next few days, dry weather and above normal temperatures continue through the short term periods. Drier air and clear skies have allowed temps early this morning to dip into the low to mid 60s across the ArkLaMiss (coolest morning of the season for some locations), but these conditions should also lead to max temps in the mid 90s for a good portion of the area today. As the lower level ridge translates northeastward over the next few days, easterly low level flow will lead to increasing humidity which should moderate temperatures some.
High pressure aloft will begin to build over the state today and Thursday as the upper pattern amplifies in response to a deep trough coming onshore out west. The presence of the upper high will limit rain chances and cloud cover so expect dry conditions across the board with only some thin high clouds at times. Overnight temperatures will also be above normal with readings in the low 60s to around 70 expected.
This dry atmosphere will persist today even as a weak inverted 500 mb trough passes to the south of the BRO CWFA, and rainfall is not expected within Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Tonight, the atmosphere will moisten considerably as a weak surface area of low pressure transitions from the western Gulf of Mexico to the Middle Texas Coast. This increased moisture will result in isolated showers for the Lower Texas coastal waters, a trend that will persist on Thursday as the low moves inland.
753 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2016 High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern through Thursday with dry and unseasonably warm conditions.
Subsidence aloft and slightly drier air at the lower levels should inhibit convection more today than the last few days, so even an isolated storm may be a stretch. /ISSUED 341 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016/ The heat will continue today as upper level high pressure remains centered over the region. High temperatures should be a couple of degrees cooler than yesterday due to a slight weakening in the ridge. Expect afternoon highs in the middle and upper 90s with heat index values only a few degrees warmer. The weather Thursday will be very similar to today but maybe a degree or two cooler.
Continental sfc to 700 mb easterlies will help to ease up on the high heat index values seen over the past few days. Broad high pressure aloft will ensure that the winds remains fairly light, which means the relief from the heat will be modest as morning dew points still jump up into the low to mid 70s the next couple days. A weak upper level easterly trough moves into Nrn Mexico tonight and brings in its wake a subtle increase in mid-level onshore flow for Thursday.
1157 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2016 A surface pressure trough near the coast and upper low over the area will continue through Thursday.
1013 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2016 High pressure will build over the region through Thursday.
1056 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2016 High pressure will give dry and warm weather for the rest of the work week. High pressure will continue to result in mostly sunny skies and well above normal temperatures. Minimal change to the long wave pattern is progged through late week with flat ridging dominating the Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Regions.
1204 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2016 High pressure will remain in control of the weather across the region into Thursday.
859 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2016 Dry weather is expected with temperatures running much above normal through the work week as upper ridging remains overhead.
1020 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2016 A large ridge of high pressure continues to nose it's way in fromm the west. Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 66 90 69 / 0 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 65 88 66 / 0 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 89 65 88 66 / 0 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 61 87 60 / 0 0 10 10.
921 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2016 High pressure will remain over the Ohio Valley through the rest of the work week, allowing dry weather to continue.
/issued 338 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016/ Upper level ridge over Texas will weaken over the next 24 hours while the next storm system comes ashore the Pacific Northwest. the lee trough will tighten just a bit providing us with afternoon winds in the 10- 15 mph range. Thanks to the cirrus, we should be a couple degrees cooler than yesterday as well. We will continue to be warm going into the weekend as surface flow continues to be out of the south to southeast ahead of a cold front over the Central Plains. The front will be pulled northward as a deep upper level low pushes eastward across the Rockies.
957 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2016 High pressure will remain in control of the weather across the region into Thursday.
BMickelson Previous short term discussion: Upper trof dropping across the Pacific Northwest with moisture streaming across northern California and into Montana. Scattered showers continue over the northern zones this morning before briefly ending as the upper low drops south and flow changes orientation and the band of showers redevelops to the southwest.
Most of the high resolution model guidance dries up this convection as it moves east, but they show another weaker line forming behind the initial line. Expect modest 500 mb height rises through tonight as a deep upper low tracks into central Canada through Monday. Wind fields do begin to increase late tonight and Monday with the area on the southern flank of the upper low to the north. It is possible some showers/storms could move into the area towards sunrise with the approach of the low-level boundary from the west/north.
An impressed warm frontal zone is developing from northwest to southeast across the WFO PAH forecast area along the base of faster northwesterly flow. Ridging at mid and upper levels should provide some subsidence and capping for convection over most of Southeast Missouri and Southwest Kentucky overnight. Recent HRRR model guidance and the Canadian model guidance appear to have picked up on the signal of convection along and north of the impressed warm front (albeit 60-70 miles too far south). Adjusted forecast for tonight and through Monday to reflect convection along and north of warm front.
1002 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 A weak area of low pressure extended from central Pennsylvania to central Ohio. The low will drift east to the Mid-Atlantic coast by Monday afternoon.
The mid level pattern is strongly suggestive of a strong ridge building into the central Plains and affecting the local areas with warm and clear days. By late in the week the ridge flattens out as a northern Plains trough rolls through the area.
High pressure will move into the eastern Lakes Monday night. An upper trough will move eastward along the Canadian border with a weak cold front moving through Minnesota Monday night.
Expect modest 500 mb height rises through tonight as a deep upper low tracks into central Canada through Monday. Wind fields do begin to increase late tonight and Monday with the area on the southern flank of the upper low to the north. It is possible some showers/storms could move into the area towards sunrise with the approach of the low-level boundary from the west/north.
Between seabreeze forcing, enhanced upper level divergence to our north from the trough, and the available moisture and instability, we've already seen an active start to convection this afternoon.
18Z surface data has high pressure over the upper Great Lakes with a frontal boundary from the Ohio Valley into northern Kansas.
1154 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 High pressure will remain across the region tonight. High pressure at the surface and aloft will result in a dry night tonight. Lows tonight are expected to range from the lower 50s across the far north but in the mid 50s to around 60 central and downeast.
Weak high pressure aloft will prevail overnight. A low pressure system will approach western Washington during the day Monday.
932 PM EDT Sun Jul 31 2016 Weak low pressure will impact the region through Monday. High pressure will build in from the north during the middle of the week. Therefore, the focus for scattered PoPs will be east of the Blue Ridge.
The upper level ridge will continue to influence the area through the period.
(Issued 207 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016) At 2 pm temps were in the upper 80s to lower 90s with dewpoints mainly in the low 70s.
826 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 An upper level area of low pressure will keep unsettled weather over the area into the first part of the work week with clouds and scattered showers, especially east of Interstate 81. Upr trof still over NY and PA on Mon with another weak wv swinging thru. Once again, best chance for pcpn will be along and east of I81 where the trof deepens and terrain helps fgenerate a bit of lift. Upper trof deepens over xtrm ern NY Mon ngt and Tue but by then rdgg is beginning to bld at H* and the sfc over wrn NY so that by Tue mrng, really only chance for shwrs will be in the mrng and over the east with drier air mvg in the west.
At the surface, a high pressure over the Atlantic Ocean its extending to the west across the Florida Peninsula.
/issued 439 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016/ Subtropical ridge centered over the western Atlantic will continue to be the dominant feature in the Florida peninsula's weather this week.
Tonight Through Monday A weak upper level low pressure trough combined with marginal moisture aloft will bring some showers and thunderstorms. Behind the trough dry west flow will be over the area on Monday. Temperatures will be slightly cooler.
1147 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 With area along southern edge of high pressure, generally quiet weather is expected. Combined with cool NE gradient, overnight lows should have no trouble dropping into the low 60s per 12z guidance. Lingering trough finally exits east on Monday. In addition to a healthy afternoon cu up, inland troughing and/or marine interface may provide a focus for showers once again.
Temperatures will also be near seasonal averages through midweek and cool slightly late in the week as an upper level trough deepens along the West Coast. Temperatures this afternoon are generally a few degrees cooler compared to this time yesterday, especially inland as high pressure aloft weakens. The forecast models then show a deepening of the mid/upper level trough across the West Coast late in the week.
Moderate delta breeze continues this evening with temperatures around 5 degrees cooler versus 24 hours ago many areas. Temperatures continue to run cooler this afternoon generally by 5 to 7 degrees. A trough of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest has helped to push the high pressure area south slightly and bring some synoptic cooling to the region.
Low temperatures will remain on the warmer side; only dropping into the upper 60s and low 70s.