Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure over northern lower Michigan will bring clear sky to the terminals during the evening other than some cirrus debris from storms to the south. The high will continue to strengthen as it drifts over Lake Huron tonight into a position favorable for directing some marine moisture inland. Highs will hover just above average values for the date in the low 80s.
656 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Warm/moist advective processes are well underway this afternoon and continue to strengthen with time, with the surface warm front now lying roughly from near Grand Forks, to just west of Brainerd, to the northern suburbs of the MSP metro area. There is some uncertainty regarding severe potential with the cold front later Monday/Monday night, which is somewhat conditional on the departure/dissipation of morning clouds and destabilization in the wake of overnight convection. The cold front will continue to move through NW WI monday evening continuing showers and thunderstorms through the region. The precipitation will taper off west to east after midnight as the cold front moves out of the area.
High pressure will then provide dry conditions across the area late tonight into Monday.
/issued 250 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday night): Upper trough continues to spin off the East Texas coast, wrapping moisture around the east side away from south Texas. Models finally have this trough dissipating during the next 24 hours, with general easterly flow develop at all layers aloft.
The low pressure area near the upper TX coast will continue to bring just enough moisture into the area to get scattered SH/TS with afternoon heating. The latest water vapor loop shows an upper low over the northwestern Gulf/far southeast Texas this afternoon. This upper low will be the main weather feature of interest for the next several days. With the upper low in proximity to the region, we will continue to see above normal moisture levels. For tomorrow, a similar pattern is in store as we continue to see an increase in deep layer moisture due to an increase in easterly flow in the lower and mid-levels.
557 PM MDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Mid/Upper level trough remains in place near four corners region, with ridge across the southeastern US. Monday: As the upper low shifts slightly better forcing is depicted and a stronger precip signal in our east through the day Monday (particularly late Monday afternoon). As upper low shifts east air mass aloft will decrease, and depending on timing of cloud cover/precip we may trend cooler than guidance is currently indicating. For now consensus is favoring slightly below normal highs in the lower 80s for most locations in our CWA.
1214 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016 Warm and mainly dry weather is expected with building high pressure early this week. A midweek cold front should return seasonal temperatures to the region by the end of the week.
630 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016 An upper level low pressure system currently centered very near the four corners, will track east and weaken tonight into Monday.
The short term will continue to be dominated by a strong high pressure system which will be retrogressing slowly west from the East Coast. Temperatures will remain slightly above normal through the period with highs generally from near 90 to the lower half of the 90s and surface dew points hanging in the lower to mid 70s.
Weak cold front backing NE-SW this evening is located from near Livingston to south of Billings to near Ekalaka at 8 pm. Passage of a trough across southern Canada will allow a weak boundary to slip into our region from the north late today. Ridge builds in and strengthens as flow aloft will back in response to next Pacific trof, and although moisture will be limited we may see a few showers or weak tstms develop over the mountains.
914 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016 High pressure will remain over the Mid Atlantic through Monday before moving offshore.
Certainly cannot rule out the ern areas getting a little bit more rainfall before the overnight hrs begin, as weak upper disturbances continue to traverse wwd underneath a broad upper ridge pattern over the Mid Atlantic/OH Valley states. Relatively quiet wx conditions should then prevail going into the early morning period, as cloud cover diminishes and temps lower predom into the lower 70s range for most locations. 09 For 06Z TAFs: With high pressure in place at the sfc and aloft over the OH Valley region, VFR conds are generally xpcted through the period.
1033 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016 Water vapor satellite this afternoon shows an upper level ridge along the East Coast into the Great Lakes Region.
A 594dam ridge remains anchored over the Delmarva with broad ridging extending into the Deep South. A relatively drier airmass, characterstic of sub 2 inch PWATs, is located across the majority of the CWA due the easterly flow around the aforementioned ridge. For the remainder of the evening, any lingering showers in the south should dissipate by 3z with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
Further west winds are keeping temperatures a bit warmer so any fog that forms may be patchy in nature.
Wind fields will be a mess with the upper low to our south, so a few stronger updrafts may produce some small hail from late tonight into Sunday, but just cannot see much chance of large/severe hail.
426 PM MST Sat Jan 21 2017 Weak ridging to neutral flow will persist through the period with dry wx. Western CONUS troughing will promote local ridging Sunday night, with gusty sw flow developing over NE WY and portions of the Black Hills.
A strong upper level impulse ahead of the main trough will rotate into the area tonight, with both a low level jet intensifying across the area and the upper level jet nosing into the area from west. The highest threat area will be across south Central Alabama, generally near and south of the US Highway 80/I-85 corridor, but will also be contingent on how far north the warm front lifts. There is a low chance of another wave of storms across the southeast tomorrow afternoon, but that is dependent on how storms evolve overnight and how/if the airmass can recover ahead of another upper level jet expected to move across that area in advance of the approaching upper level trough. A warm front is expected to push northward some from the coast tonight ahead of another round of showers and thunderstorms.
Fries Model depictions of the cutoff low pressure set to dig toward the Upper Ohio Region have deviated from previous days solutions with a more westward track of the center. An inch to inch and a half is anticipated for the early week with limitations imposed by low pressure progression and mid level dry slotting.
Air temperatures have all risen above freezing as of late afternoon, as have all available road surface temperatures. Expect both to be hovering around freezing by midnight tonight, which is going to produce new icing on area roads. A weak short wave trof will move through the forecast area Sunday night. An embedded impulse will accompany the trof and affect the area north of the Iron Range.
418 PM MST Sat Jan 21 2017 Upper level trough is currently deepening over the four corners region with diffluent flow aloft spreading over the Southern Plains towards SW Kansas. Sunday: Behind upper level system air mass will be slightly cooler, but there may be little change in high temps due to clearing skies and good mixing.
603 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017 Thunderstorms associated with an eastward moving upper low will move east of DAL between 00 and 0030Z. After that only some lingering showers are expected at all TAF sites through the evening until the upper trough axis passes to the east. Once the trough axis moves east, A Pacific cold front will sweep across the region. The surface and upper level lows will move east or east-southeast across southern Oklahoma tonight and into Arkansas by late Sunday morning. As a Pacific cold front moves through late tonight and Sunday morning, winds will shift to the northwest.
Morning model guidance in good agreement with this feature forming a closed upper low which will track to the Arkansas/Mississippi border by midday Sunday. Rain chances across the south half of the CWA significantly increase Sunday morning as the low lifts northeast.
This, as well as strong winds rounding the base of the trough have resulted in a windy day across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Aided by a little subsidence on the backside of the trough, we see no reason to discontinue wind warnings/advisories as they currently lay, as winds look to stay up all night. In fact, models suggest the strongest winds rounding the base of the trough will be over the SW zones at 12Z Sunday, so some warnings/advisories SW and S will need to be extended into Sunday. Once the trough clears the region, grids look dry into the extended.
Temperatures are a degree or two cooler than previous forecast. with only minor changes to the low overnight. Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 62 47 50 / 90 90 70 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 66 48 52 / 80 80 90 80 Oak Ridge, TN 52 64 48 53 / 80 80 90 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 64 48 53 / 70 80 100 90.
The moisture convergence weakens somewhat after 09- 12Z as the low level flow swings around to the east and then northeast with the low moving through northern Arkansas. although with rain and cloud cover it'll be cooler than today.
Gradient relaxes on Sunday, although better mixing of the higher winds aloft after sunrise will offset some of this. Could have a few minimum temperatures in the lower 30s in some of the low-lying areas and river valleys.
The low level moisture overnight will cause at least MVFR visibilities ahead of the convection.
A warm front will extend through the forecast area tonight ahead of strong low pressure.
610 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017 Most of the latest short term guidance suggests perhaps a little better chance for southern Kansas to be impacted on the north edge of the upper low which will track east across the southern Plains overnight. Some mid-level convergence develops toward midnight across south central Kansas which may give a bit better support for some light rain or rain showers overnight as the zone of deformation north of the upper low moves east across the area. Low pops will linger into early Sunday over Southeast KS before large-scale forcing for subsidence arrives across the area in the wake of the trough bringing a rapid demise to any lingering light rain showers. A mid/upper ridge is progged to build over the central Conus early in the week supporting above normal temperatures across the area.
Low pressure, centered over the Texas Panhandle at 22/0000Z, will move almost directly east overnight. This second area is associated with the upper low over northern NM that is expected to move quickly southeast along the Red River early Sunday.
The passage of a strong cold front will bring windy conditions, mainly during the afternoon hours of Sunday. /issued 305 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night): Temperature have risen well into the lower 90s across the Rio Grande Plains this afternoon thanks to downsloping winds and mixing down of dry air. Winds will lay a bit late this afternoon and evening with a brief switch back to the SSE in tech wake of pre-frontal trough. Despite this being a strong cold front.
Deepening low pressure now over the Texas panhandle will continue to advance east and into the lower Mississippi valley tonight and early Sunday. This feature will swing a cold front across the region tonight bringing a few somewhat cooler days to the region. Rain chances then end in the wake of the incoming cold front as the area as flow through the column becomes dry west to northwest between the exiting low and moderate ridge following into the plains.
A warm front is still expected to lift northward tonight and early Sunday, bringing along a band of showers and thunderstorms.
Across west central Illinois, where the sky was mostly sunny, temperatures rose into the low to mid 50s. Some patchy fog lingered along the Highway 20 corridor and points to the north. Lowest visibilities of 1 to 3 miles are located along the Highway 20 corridor. An upper level low may support some isolated light rain in the extreme south late tonight into Sunday morning.
MSAS analysis indicates 3-hrly pressure rises of around 6mb from Del Rio to Eagle Pass this evening with the long talked about dry cold front rapidly pushing into the region.
328 PM MST Sat Jan 21 2017 Upper level trough is currently deepening over the four corners region with diffluent flow aloft spreading over the Southern Plains towards SW Kansas. Sunday: Behind upper level system air mass will be slightly cooler, but there may be little change in high temps due to clearing skies and good mixing.
1029 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2017 A cold front will cross the region overnight.
Mid afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP analysis had a closed low spinning over the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles. Our CWA was located upstream from the low in an increasingly diffluent flow region with increasing waa ahead of the approaching low pressure system. The approaching cold core low will steepen mid level lapse rates to 7-8C/km leading to vertical totals in the lower 30s.
A warm front will extend through the forecast area today and tonight ahead of strong low pressure.
712 PM MST Sat Jan 21 2017 Based on the current trend of the shower activity circulating around the low south of the Tri State Region. With current temps above freezing. Upper level trough is currently deepening over the four corners region with diffluent flow aloft spreading over the Southern Plains towards SW Kansas. Sunday: Behind upper level system air mass will be slightly cooler, but there may be little change in high temps due to clearing skies and good mixing.
Weak ridging remained over eastern KS. Lows tonight should range from the lower 30s north where skies may remain clearer longer, to the lower 40s across east central KS expecting clouds to keep temps from falling to far. Some low level cold air advection is anticipated on the back side of the system so temps should be cooler than today. Have highs in the lower 40s across northeast KS where fog and stratus are possible to near 50 in central KS. Upper ridge building east into the Plains brings clearing skies Sunday night.
Cigs wl likely remain MVFR/IFR Sunday as an upper level low moves across north MS. Mid afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP analysis had a closed low spinning over the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles. Our CWA was located upstream from the low in an increasingly diffluent flow region with increasing waa ahead of the approaching low pressure system. The approaching cold core low will steepen mid level lapse rates to 7-8C/km leading to vertical totals in the lower 30s.
721 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2017 A cold front will cross the region overnight.
This system and a frontal boundary forecast to shift northward as a warm front tonight, will bring another bout of shower and thunderstorms to the forecast area. Even with the rain, low temperatures tonight will only fall into the low and mid 50s. A wet start to a new week is in the forecast as the area of low pressure moves across the region. All model camps are in reasonable agreement moving the low from near Memphis to Nashville with central pressure nearing 990mb, pretty good for this part of the CONUS. Along with clouds and the rain, a tad cooler on Sun with highs in the low/mid 60s. Even cooler for Sunday night with lows in the mid 40s.
skies remain cloudy as mid and high level clouds continues to pinwheel thru the region w/ low pressure still residing over northern TX and western OK. Upper level trough is currently deepening over the four corners region with diffluent flow aloft spreading over the Southern Plains towards SW Kansas. Sunday: Behind upper level system air mass will be slightly cooler, but there may be little change in high temps due to clearing skies and good mixing.
850mb to 700mb frontogenesis and i290 to I300 isentropic lift improves early tonight across southwest Kansas as an upper level trough/low exits the southern Rockies and moves into the Texas Panhandle. As this upper low moves out into the Southern and Central Plains overnight an area of low pressure will deepen so winds across western Kansas are expected to be in the 15 to 20 mph range. Based on these winds and in the mixing of boundary layer the lows tonight will not be a cold as the past few nights. A northwesterly flow will improve on Sunday across the West Central High Plains as an upper level ridge axis begins to build into the Rockies. possibly even a few degrees warmer in a few locations.
An upper trough will bring showers at times through Sunday night.
Have removed several lower elevation zones from the winter storm products including most of SE Utah, the Paradox Valley area and the Colorado river valley from Grand Junction to Avon as the best push of precipitation moves northeast of these areas and temps have risen to or above freezing, changing much of the precip to rain. Satellite imagery and upper analysis show the 500 mb trough to be splitting as it moves over northern Colorado. The break between storms is well defined with dry ridging developing over the western Great Basin.
This activity will spread east across the remainder of the region Sunday as a developing storm system moves north of the area and the trailing cold front approaches the area. The low level jet will strengthen overnight, bringing in stratus.
Either way, like the past few days, temps won't budge much with lows tonight in the low to mid 30s and highs Sunday in the mid 30s to low 40s.
1035 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2017 The Florida Keys reside between a high cell, centered just east of the Bahamas, and a low pressure system moving eastwards through the plains. Weather is expected to deteriorate significantly late Sunday evening as a strong cold front and associated potentially strong prefrontal showers and thunderstorms blast through the Keys. Winds continue to strengthen on Keys waters tonight the gradient tightens between a low pressure system moving eastwards across the central United States and a high pressure centered east of the Bahamas. A cold front will reach the Florida Keys late Sunday evening and active weather is expected ahead of it.
Surface analysis had a 996mb low near Bastrop Louisiana with the associated warm front extending east just north of Interstate 20. Mid afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP analysis had a closed low spinning over the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles. Our CWA was located upstream from the low in an increasingly diffluent flow region with increasing waa ahead of the approaching low pressure system. The approaching cold core low will steepen mid level lapse rates to 7-8C/km leading to vertical totals in the lower 30s.
/Issued 343 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017/ Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to increase across our area into the evening hours as a compact but potent upper low currently over eastern New Mexico moves rapidly east towards our area. Thunder chances will decrease later tonight as steadier rain develops across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas to the north of the upper low track.
Aloft an upper low is still slowly southeast over Northwest Mexico. Tonight and into Monday, the upper low will gradually turn east then speed up while moving northeast. This low is expected to move onshore in Jefferson County or Cameron Parish then keep on northeast. To the right of the low warm and moist air will spill in from the gulf.
1047 AM EST Sun Dec 4 2016 An upper-level trough continues progress east across the region this morning, spreading well-needed light to moderate showers across the eastern Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians. Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 42 56 53 / 100 40 60 100 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 41 57 49 / 100 60 50 90 Oak Ridge, TN 45 40 56 49 / 100 40 50 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 38 53 46 / 90 60 40 90 NC.
928 AM EST Sun Dec 4 2016 A ridge of high pressure will slowly build into the region today, before moving offshore tonight.
In the lower elevations, precip may begin as snow or a rain/snow mix before changing over to rain. A strong cold front will move through tonight, changing any lingering precipitation back to snow before ending. Winds this afternoon and evening will gust to around 40 mph above 7000 feet, but in the lower elevations winds are only expected to exceed 20 mph in southeast Oregon. Monday, highs will reach the 30s in the lower elevations with teens and 20s in the mountains.
The center of the upper level low pressure system was located roughly just south of Sonora, Mexico still making a southerly trek, though a turn to the northeast is expected today towards the Big Bend. However, thanks to how far south the system traveled today, and as the low begins to open slightly and weaken today moving towards us, its effect on our weather looks to be lessening. A weak cold front will push through today also helping to keep much of the area dry, though this front won't be serving to really drag temperatures down. It will help to clear our skies finally, though that means the cold ahead below freezing for the northwest half of the forecast area.
From east to west we have an upper low spinning just east of the Canadian Maritimes, an area of high pressure resides over the southeastern United States, and a large trough is moving over western half of North America. The trough over the western portions of the continent is a conglomerate of several areas f low pressure extending from the southern tip of Baja Mexico to the Yukon Territories.
Warmer today with weak offshore flow and a short wave ridge aloft.
332 AM MST Sun Dec 4 2016 Colorado is under a strong northwest flow pattern today following a weak upper trof, which is now moving through the central plains states. Across lower elevations, skies will be mostly sunny for much of the day along with warmer temperatures. A longwave trough will push down out of western Canada Monday with the upper jet sliding over the state before splitting later that day. A cold front is progged to push down during the late morning to early afternoon. However good orographics and cold advection will likely bring 2 to 6 inches of snow to the higher mountains.
643 AM EST Sun Dec 4 2016 High pressure over the area will move east late Sunday. High pressure will build back in for Monday.
Current surface analysis places low along the Saskatchewan/Alberta border with trough dipping down into the northern plains. Upper level analysis places trough slicing through the plains which produced some periods of snow overnight. Weak impulse on the back-side of the trough is producing a little bit more light snow over northern portions of our area. weak ridge develops over the area in the wake of the departing trough with dry conditions developing as it moves east. In the meantime, an upper low over northern Saskatchewan gradually deepens. first impulse swinging around aforementioned upper low pushes into the area with snow chances gradually spreading from west to east. Short wave swinging through the area starts to close off near the international border on Monday while cold front swiftly moves through the area.
A warm front should remain to our south today with easterly flow keeping temperatures down this afternoon.
A dry cold front will will bring cooler daytime temperatures to our region from Monday through midweek.
A broad/flat upper ridge was located over the NERN Pacific Sunday morning. To the north of the ridge, an upper low was centered over the NERN Gulf of Alaska. The upper ridge is expected to yield a storm track oriented from the NW to the SE through midweek, which will favor a significant cold air intrusion during the early portions of the upcoming work week. The pattern then shifts to a W-E storm track during the second half of the week, which will favor warmer and wetter conditions for NWRN CA.