Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today and tonight) Yet another day of heat is in store for west central Texas as a strong upper-level ridge will settle in across the Four Corners region. As the ridge height climbs to near 600dam, 850mb temperatures will be about 25-27 deg C. By this evening, a weak cold front, helped along by northwest flow aloft over the central Plains, will drop into north Texas.
232 AM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022 Isolated convection in the far eastern CWA persists with high pressure both aloft and at the surface stacked to the northeast which is actually bringing in some slightly drier air. Temperatures back to average today with that high and cooler temperatures aloft, but with the excess rain the last few days, and rapidly growing corn, would expect ET to be rather high today, meaning slightly unstable profiles for the James and east. Farther west, with less ET, and slightly warmer temperatures aloft means capped conditions. Tonight, we see that high pressure migrate east southeast with return flow for western South Dakota. Convection riding the upper level ridge and LLJ in North Dakota could clip locations on the ND/SD border.
An upper level high that continues to dominate over the region will continue to strengthen and shift slightly westward through Friday. The Heat Advisory has been extended into Saturday now, with temperatures over the advised area ranging from 102 to 106 and the highest temperatures expected over the Big Country.
339 AM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022 Upper level dome of high pressure will begin a gradual migration to the WNW and expand northward into the northern Rockies over the next twenty four hours. 25" at times later today, heavy rain chances will be limited due to the high-based nature of any storms that do develop. A weak upper level trough axis extending westward from the Central Plains may provide enough lift for scattered showers and thunderstorms to persist after sunset over the northern Rolling Plains, but expect convection to wind down area wide after midnight. Saturday opens with light northerly winds in the wake of a weak cold front and outflow boundary slowing over the Permian Basin.
(Today through Saturday) Strengthening of the subtropical ridge overhead will result in continued well above normal heat across south central Texas through the end of this week. The lone exception will be across the higher elevations of the Hill Country where upper 90s will continue.
(Today and tonight) Currently the cold front surface boundary is in far northwestern Oklahoma, with little movement so far these overnight hours. While things have remained dry across Oklahoma so far, some storms have developed in southern Kansas along the cold front, and an eye will be kept on far northern Oklahoma if the storm development extends into the area. The cold front will surge southward through Oklahoma today, which will limit the heat in areas behind the front and keep temperatures closer to average. Friday afternoon, scattered showers and storms are possible along and ahead of the cold front with increasing instability due to daytime heating.
652 AM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022 (Today through Saturday) Strengthening of the subtropical ridge overhead will result in continued well above normal heat across south central Texas through the end of this week. The lone exception will be across the higher elevations of the Hill Country where upper 90s will continue.
/NF/ Today and Tonight: Another hot day is expected across the region as a mid-level ridge of high pressure keeps a lid on the boiling pot of southern humidity. Beneath the core of the ridge, dew points might mix out a little better than the latest NBM guidance indicates. South and east from the core of the ridge, scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected again today. /NF/ Saturday through next Friday: A persistent, deep-layer ridge will continue to create dangerous heat stress conditions across the Southern region through Saturday. In the lower levels, a moist (PWATS ~2.
However low clouds will likely linger for a while especially this morning with the low level easterly flow. -- Gusty showers and a few thunderstorms Monday -- A strong cold front will bring potential for gusty showers and a chance for thunderstorms Monday. However given strong shear and the weak instability and strong forcing from the front there will likely be some briefly gusty winds to around 30-45 mph possibly coming in the form of an NCFR (narrow cold frontal rain band) with embedded convective elements. -- Cooling trend of temperatures late week -- Temps will undergo a cooling trend late in the week as an upper level trough digs in and amplifies over our region.
Scattered showers continue along the Cascades and the eastern mountains behind yesterday's cold front.
A rather short wavelength upper trough is rapidly translating eastward into the central and northern Plains this afternoon.
Temps and Pops have been adjusted for the rest of the afternoon and evening with highs in the low 70s expected for areas along and northwest of the I-85 corridor, with highs in the mid-80s where cloud cover is not as dense in the southeastern portions of the forecast area.
A dry slot in the low to mid levels is advecting into the area just behind the frontal boundary.
1123 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2020 Gentle low-mid level southerly flow prevails this morning across the Keys, in response to high pressure northeast of the Bahamas and a flat ridge axis extending back through the Straits of Florida. However, low-level flow is expected to become more southwesterly this afternoon, which could bring reverse cloud line showers near and downwind of the Lower Keys, i. extending from Big Pine Key out across the Bayside waters north of the Seven Mile Bridge. The high pressure off to our east is expected to retrograde (or move westward) across the Keys tonight before reaching the Central Gulf late Monday as a small bubble of high pressure.
Cold front as of 3 AM is through the west and most of the southwest zones. For areas east of the divide, scattered rain showers will develop this morning as the cold front roars by.
A slow moving back door type of cold front was moving southwest out of Lower Michigan and was moving into northwest Ohio and northern Indiana. East flow will persist tonight with a very large high pressure area over southeast Canada into far northern New England. The GFS and ECMWF have come into much better agreement with the longwave/large scale trof becoming established over east North America.
The cold air low pressure trough will continue to slide eastward over the region today through tonight and a bit lingering on Monday.
The cold front is just moving into the far western part of the forecast area. The cold front will continue to move through the forecast area during the afternoon and early evening. With temperatures a little warmer, there would be little to no frost. With the waves there are a few weak cold fronts that move through. Temperatures will be up and down through the middle of the week, then cooler.
238 PM MDT Sun Oct 11 2020 Much colder air has pushed into eastern Idaho today as an upper- level trough continues to move to our east. Across the lower terrain, winds will be the primary concern as a Wind Advisory remains in place this afternoon and again during the afternoon hours tomorrow.
1227 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020 Water vapor showing a strongly dynamic trough/pv-anomaly moving through the Northern Rockies early this morning. This will aid in deepening low pressure over southern Canada with a strong surface cold front extending southward into the Dakotas by this afternoon. Ahead of this deepening low/cold front, strengthening east/southeast winds will draw in lower level moisture/increasing stratus cloud through this morning. As a result, could see quite a temperature spread across the area today with highs in the lower 60s across north central WI, and 70-75 southwest of I-94. The cold front continues to push eastward into western MN early this evening with an increasing band of showers and storms along it. Temperatures return to near normal with highs generally in the low to mid 60s.
Will check to see if sky conditions and temperatures need to be adjusted in the short term, will likely influence temperatures, where it could be a few degrees warmer this afternoon.
Highs should climb back into the lower 80s again today with 850mb temperatures around 15C. The next focus then turns to the upper trough now over the northern Rockies that the HREF and GFS/NAM shows moving into the Midwest by early tomorrow. There will be decent ascent with this trough and the HREF is now showing PWATS in the 1-1. This trough will also bring an attendant front across the area late tonight into Monday morning. Temperates tomorrow will be cooler given the cold air advection with highs in the 70s.
Late tonight a cold front will result in a strong wind shift from the north.
This will limit cooling to the low 60s. The upcoming week features two significant waves that will drive cold fronts through the Ohio Valley. The first fropa will be late Monday with fast westerly flow giving the upper trof a negative tilt.
This precip will die out this evening as the mid/upper level trough supporting it departs. However, the departing system was tropical in origin and has not tapped into a good source of cooler/drier air to pull in at the lower levels in its wake. As diurnal warming kicks in on Monday, the fog and low clouds will lift and should eventually break up, but timing of this is also uncertain, with the lowering sun angle making it more difficult to warm up and mix. A large, dampening wave rotating around an upper low over central Canada will support a cold front which will move through our area on Monday night.
This is ahead of a strong cold front that will move through the area through the evening hours. Cooler temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s expected for Monday with backing winds to the west and southwest. When combined with the much lower dewpoints, fire danger will again be in the high to very high category with relative humidity down into the lower 20 percent range.
1120 AM MDT Sun Oct 11 2020 Current surface analysis shows cold front now moving across western SD. An upper trough is crossing the western CONUS, with the main axis across the northern to central Rockies. A strong cold front is quickly crossing eastern MT and SW North Dakota, on the verge of pushing into Harding County, SD and Campbell County, WY. The highest QPF will be across northeast WY, up to 0.
Moisture advection is occurring across much of Nebraska with the approach of a warm front, currently progressing through northern Nebraska. The current thinking is that the best moisture will reside east of Highway 83 today, as a dry line slowly pushes east this afternoon before being overtaken by a rather stout cold front this evening. Deep mixing is anticipated west of the dry line, and should lead to RH values falling into the lower teens across the Red Flag Warning area. Winds will increase with the passage of the cold front, and with an already deeply mixed boundary layer at the time of FROPA, gusts in the 30-40mph range seem probable area wide.
245 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020 A cold front will move through the area tonight with a few thunderstorms expected ahead of it through about 5z. It even looks like areas from about a Ivanhoe to Cherokee line east will have some turning in the low level wind field which might support low level rotation and an isolated tornado threat. There may be some trailing showers or even an isolated thunderstorm through about midnight as a cold front aloft moves in behind the cold front at the surface with some indication of very weak instability aloft. High pressure moves south of the area tonight into Monday which will leave us in a mixy westerly environment during this time. This will keep lows from dropping too much with most location in the low to mid 40s by Monday morning.
We're referring to the cooler temperatures, improved visibility and air quality in the San Joaquin Valley the past couple of days. Normal highs in the San Joaquin Valley at this time of year are in the lower 80s. A strong upper level ridge of high pressure centered over the Eastern Pacific is currently building back into the Golden State. This ridge will bring a return of well above normal afternoon temperatures and unfortunately worsening air quality in the San Joaquin Valley this week.
Dry and a little warmer each day with light winds.
Issued by National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 258 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020 A rather wild ride from a very warm windy day today to a cooler pleasant day tomorrow is expected tonight. Tonight, the cold front will arrive in the far west around 8 PM and exit far east around 4 AM.
Overcast skies will remain in its wake with light winds and mild overnight temperatures in the low to mid 60s. With the abundance of moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere, low stratus is expected to develop overnight with patchy fog across the area. A pre-frontal trough and convergence axis that will progress through the TN Valley late Monday afternoon will serve as a focus for convective development, aided by diurnal heating and development. The drier continental airmass will overspread the Southeast Monday night, dropping overnight lows into the low to mid 50s as skies clear out.
Therefore, will cancel the High Wind Warning and let the Red Flag Warning continue till 6 pm.
High pressure over the Great Lakes gradually brining in drier air over the area. A cold front will move through the area tomorrow.
Not really seeing any significant changes from recent forecasts, with cold front just pushing into the western Dakotas early this morning. Expect highs to reach the upper 70s to mid 80s, with far western areas dropping off through the mid to late afternoon in the wake of the cold front. This boundary, and associated dynamic upper level trough pushing out of the northern Rockies will be the focus from mid afternoon through this evening. Ample moisture streaming northward ahead of the front, though warm temperatures aloft with expansive EML lifting northeast ahead of the trough should inhibit initiation until the latter half of the afternoon, when lead wave swings out of the base of the trough into areas along/east of the I-29 corridor 21Z-00Z.
A substantial cold front with a steep pressure gradient passes through the area overnight bringing gusty winds in excess of 35-40mph. Once the front passes temperatures will remain cool with Monday's highs in the low to mid 70s.
The record heat will come to an end though, as cooler temperatures are in store for Monday, behind a cold front that will move through the forecast area during the early morning hours.
157 PM MDT Sun Oct 11 2020 Subsidence behind upper trof has resulted in widespread strong west/northwest winds today as anticipated.
However, with dew points still hovering in the upper 60s and lower 70s, and a dry cold front approaching from the west, conditions will be rather humid and toasty across the forecast area as highs range from the mid 80s to around 90. A series of mostly dry cold fronts will impact the region through the upcoming week.
230 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2020 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Showers and storms Monday afternoon - Mild through mid-week - Cooling trend late week -- Showers and storms Monday afternoon -- Should start the day with low stratus, which will gradually lift with deeper mixing mainly caused by low-level warm air advection, but might not scatter out before the cold front arrives in the afternoon.
246 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2020 A weak cold front associated with the remnants of Delta is currently in North Florida and will push through the state today. Behind it is much drier and slightly cooler air.
Low level thermal trough combined with compressional southwest downslope winds will bring record high temperatures to West Central Texas today. A cold front will move through the Big Country late tonight, between 4 AM and 7 AM, with shift of winds to the northwest and north.
Temps will rebound into the upper 70s to low 80s tomorrow before another cold front is set to move through in the late afternoon.
As the remnants of Delta move further to the north northeast Tonight, high pressure will build from the southwest. The region will be between a trough of low pressure to the north, and high pressure to the southwest Monday. A few spotty showers will be possible Monday with the presence of the troughing.
Issued by National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 331 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020 Dry high pressure in the upper levels dominating the weather across SW LA today allowing for abundant sunshine and temperatures climbing up into the mid 80s to around 90 with low level moisture sufficient for heat indices in the 99-92 degree range. A cold front in Kansas this afternoon will drop southward and should arrive into the areas near Jasper in the late afternoon/early evening Monday this will give the region another above normal round of temperatures with southwesterly flow in place ahead of the front.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed high pressure over southern Quebec, a low pressure over the northern Plains and a cold front that extended southwest into the central High Plains. Monday Night Through Sunday After Monday, a broad long-wave trough aloft will gradually expand south from Canada down over the Great Lakes region late in the week.
Cooler temperatures closer to seasonal averages can be expected Monday.
Am considering issuing a wind advisory this evening though as the cold front arrives with a wind switch to the northwest, with widespread wind gusts 45 to 57 mph possible. Still looking at very high fire danger tomorrow behind the cold front.
The short term focuses on the departure of Delta's remnants today, followed by a chance of showers with the passage of a cold front on Monday. Fog may be limited elsewhere later in the night as the gradient picks up ahead of an approaching cold front. The rest of the short term period looks dry and seasonably cool as high pressure builds in.
951 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020 Cold front located near Warroad to Bagley to just west of Wadena at 0230z. After that the cooler air lingers over the entire region, with 850 mb temps remaining in the -4 to -8C range, limiting high temps to the 40s by then, with lows near or below freezing.
A strong storm system was moving through the northern Rockies this afternoon and will continue to push a cold front towards the region very late tonight into early Monday morning. The cold front looks to enter extreme Southeast Kansas around 2-3am, continuing to push east, likely reaching SGF around 5-6am and then exiting the eastern Ozarks around 8-9am.
Forecast soundings indicate low level moisture/stratus will remain trapped in the lowest 1km through the overnight hours. Fog Potential Overnight, Cold Front Arrives Monday. Our next chance of rain comes with a cold front Monday afternoon/evening. Rain chances increase during the afternoon with the highest POPs over southern IN/northern KY, many of the places that missed out from the weekend showers. We'll start off this period with a cold front sweeping eastward somewhere along the I-75 corridor.
After another day of well above normal temperatures, a strong cold front will move through the area late tonight into early tomorrow morning.
VFR conditions will continue with sustained winds overnight ahead of a strong cold front which will sweep across fcst terminals between midnight and sunrise. /Issued 152 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020/ The next cold front is currently pushing into NE and northeastern CO, and will sweep through eastern OK 08-12Z and through western AR by 15Z.
819 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2020 Aviation - Showers and storms Monday afternoon - Mild through mid-week - Cooling trend late week -- Showers and storms Monday afternoon -- Should start the day with low stratus, which will gradually lift with deeper mixing mainly caused by low-level warm air advection, but might not scatter out before the cold front arrives in the afternoon.
213 PM PDT Sun Oct 11 2020 High pressure builds over the area, which will lead to a warming and drying trend for the week. In addition to this warmer weather, diurnally driven north winds have been kicking up.
Winds gradually turn to the north through mid-week, as weak high pressure builds over the Gulf and a couple of dry reinforcing boundaries move through.
A rather wild ride from a very warm windy day today to a cooler pleasant day tomorrow is expected tonight. Tonight, the cold front will arrive in the far west around 8 PM and exit far east around 4 AM.
716 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020 Cold front entering western MN at 00z having passed Hallock, Crookston and Wheaton. After that the cooler air lingers over the entire region, with 850 mb temps remaining in the -4 to -8C range, limiting high temps to the 40s by then, with lows near or below freezing.
Otherwise, the cooler weather continues through tomorrow, with most of the region getting a shot at some rain. Therefore, will cancel the High Wind Warning and let the Red Flag Warning continue till 6 pm.
ECMWF still a little higher with rain chances compared to other guidance across this area, but have trended toward the lower MAV/MET guidance, with PoPs up to 30-40 percent, mainly near/south of a line from Okeechobee to Fort Pierce. Otherwise lows will be in the low 70s.
543 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020 A cold front will move through the area tonight with a few thunderstorms expected ahead of it through about 5z. It even looks like areas from about a Ivanhoe to Cherokee line east will have some turning in the low level wind field which might support low level rotation and an isolated tornado threat. There may be some trailing showers or even an isolated thunderstorm through about midnight as a cold front aloft moves in behind the cold front at the surface with some indication of very weak instability aloft. High pressure moves south of the area tonight into Monday which will leave us in a mixy westerly environment during this time. This will keep lows from dropping too much with most location in the low to mid 40s by Monday morning.
Fog Potential Overnight, Cold Front Arrives Monday. Our next chance of rain comes with a cold front Monday afternoon/evening. Rain chances increase during the afternoon with the highest POPs over southern IN/northern KY, many of the places that missed out from the weekend showers. We'll start off this period with a cold front sweeping eastward somewhere along the I-75 corridor.
The current setup shows a dryline paralleling the highway 83 corridor spreading eastward. Models have this dryline stalling a little farther east of it's current position before being swept out altogether by a fast approaching cold front Tonight - currently positioned from west central Nebraska into northeast Colorado. Based on trend s from the local hourly MOS products and the BUFkit sounding low level lapse rates it seems that the high wind criteria would be spotty at best, not widespread, and not likely sustained.
Despite lack of showers on radar, the low levels remain quite saturated and expect fog and areas of drizzle to persist through the overnight hours. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 81 58 77 53 / 20 10 20 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 78 58 74 51 / 20 10 20 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 65 79 56 75 49 / 20 10 20 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 75 56 72 47 / 40 10 20 0 0.
354 PM MDT Sun Oct 11 2020 Current surface analysis shows cold front is now east of the forecast area, with gusty northwesterly winds across much of the area, strongest generally over northwest SD into the west central SD plains. Temps last hour ranged from the upper 30s and 40s over northeast WY and the Black Hills to the lower 70s over south central SD.
As of 2 pm, high pressure was over eastern Ontario with a broad ridge extending back to the southwest into eastern Iowa. A warm front was starting to move into the southern CWA as a cold front in central SD and central NE was moving east towards SW MN and Western Iowa. It now appears that the cold front and rain chances may hold off getting into the west central and NW portions of our CWA until after 6Z and possibly not until after 8Z.
A cold front will bring a 2 to 4 hour period of rain and gusty winds Monday afternoon into early Monday evening.