Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An approaching upper low will back winds aloft to the southwest today. The upper low tracks into Washington on Tuesday. A dry cold front accompanying the upper low will push into southeast Oregon during the afternoon. And out ahead of the front temperatures are unchanged or a few degrees warmer across southwest Idaho on Tuesday.
High pressure building over the area will keep an east to southeast flow across the terminals with a few gust up to 20 knots in the afternoon. /issued 439 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016/ Subtropical ridge centered over the western Atlantic will continue to be the dominant feature in the Florida peninsula's weather this week.
Upper level ridge axis will build into Central Great Lakes tonight, as large and deep upper level low over Western Canada tracks off to the east-northeast. Subsequently, should be able to get away with a dry Tuesday as upper level ridge holds on and warm front holds off. 850 mb temps of 16 c look to support highs mostly in the mid 80s, with normally warmer locations pushing into the upper 80s.
A dry air mass along with building upper level high pressure ridge from the east will lead to benign aviation conditions through the period.
Warm and dry again today, but with less wind as the region will be under the influence of a brief ridge between systems. Tuesday, warms back up into the 90s with increasing westerly winds ahead of the next dry cold front.
Despite the fairly stable summer pattern, expect a slight increase in storms to begin today as the upper high over the Gulf slowly shifts into TX, beginning a transition to a stronger and more typical August monsoon for our area. Greater sky coverage tonight will lead to a warmer night overall, with temps staying near 70 degrees over the Plains through much of the night.
353 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2016 High pressure will continue to build over the Southern Plains today. Highs in the lower 90s are forecast for far Northwest Arkansas. Afternoon conditions may allow for a few isolated diurnal pulse type thunderstorms over the higher terrain locations of Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. hot & humid underneath high pressure.
506 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 Weak high pressure will remain north of the area today. Low pressure will track south of the region tonight through Tuesday. However, the weather disturbance, which will be moving very slowly, will weaken and push south later today into tonight as upper level ridging presses in from the Great Lakes. An upper level trof will cross the region Tuesday with partly sunny skies along with a chance of showers.
A subtle upper low over Central TX, which can be seen on water vapor imagery early this morning, will continue to meander across parts of TX through the week. This TUTT-like feature should go relatively unnoticed for the next several days as the 500mb ridge dominates the region with subsidence as it becomes centered directly above us by midweek. This means mostly sunny skies and seasonably hot temperatures will prevail with highs in the low 100s for many areas this week. As a result, dewpoints will mix out into the 50s west of I-35 and into the low to mid 60s elsewhere which will keep heat indices in check for the early portion of the week.
LCH also had 500mb heights increase to 594 decameters indicating that the ridge was building westward over the northern Gulf. The upper level ridge should expand over the S Plains through the middle of the week. Next chance for rain looks to be for the end of the week but it will largely depend upon how much tropical moisture moves into the NW Gulf and if the upper level ridge weakens enough to allow convection. Both the GFS and ECMWF are suggesting the ridge will maintain strength or perhaps weaken slightly. It also looks like the higher tropical moisture may not be quite as much as previously forecast. With this much uncertainty between the ridge strength and how much moisture will be available, the forecast will keep mainly 20-40 PoPs for the end of the week and weekend.
312 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 Unsettled weather will continue through Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure remains to our north, while a series of weak lows pass by to our south.
The highest risk for severe storms today should be over the northern Panhandle closer to the stronger flow aloft, and this is where the HRRR hints at some of the better simulated reflectivity. The GFS/NAM are in good agreement with a back door cold front pushing southwestward early in the morning on Tuesday, with a considerable increase in boundary lyr moisture.
High pressure will be East of the region, with a trough to the Northwest this period. With proximity of trough, best chance for convection will be over Southeast Georgia both days.
353 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2016 Upper ridge now becoming centered over the Sabine River valley as the upper trof over the nrn Great Lakes region continues to push ewd. The upper ridge will continue to increase its influence across our region today through at least mid week, which will allow for our temps to climb into the mid to upper 90s for most of the region.
500 AM MST Sun Jan 29 2017 Dry weather will continue today and into Monday as high pressure aloft slowly builds into the area. Not much change to Today's forecast as northerly flow aloft will become a little more northwesterly as the upper level ridge axis flattens out a bit.
1000 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2017 A cold front will move across the local area today. A ridge of high pressure will build east across the region late tonight into Monday.
Precipitation is largely expected to remain on the warm side of the frontogenesis where air and road temperatures are above freezing compared to the colder air and roads across the James River Valley. Thus, do not expect much in the way of freezing rain or snow accumulation. Widespread highs in the mid 30s to even the lower 40s west are forecast based on the 00 UTC global suites and high resolution consensus through their 07 UTC iterations.
This will bring chances of snow across the far northern CWA, while a more potent system looks set to drop out of the western Great Lakes, round the base of the upper trough and push across southern WV.
We remain sandwiched between upper-level ridging over the southwest U. and troughing over eastern Canada through the near term, maintaining northwest flow aloft over the forecast area. At the surface, high pressure building in from the west will support northwesterly to northerly flow and seasonable temperatures through the remainder of the weekend. Mostly clear skies and highs in the low 60's can be expected Sunday afternoon. Lows Sunday night will dip into the low to mid 30's across the interior and low 40's along the coast.
The warmer NAM/ECM guidance plus bias correction is in place for forecast highs in the 40s and 50s today. Temperatures are above freezing across all areas at 08z and this is warming up the snow pack supporting the warm forecast. The thermal ridge across the Nrn High plains will move overhead tonight.
403 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2017 Extensive low level cloudiness should decrease gradually today as the trough heads east. Cooler air will follow in the wake of this system, with highs by the end of the week will be in the upper teens to low 20s which will is a couple degrees below normal for early February. Looking ahead, cooler weather will move across the region as northwest flow continues, only without the leeside warming that we saw the last few days. The stratus will hang around through most of Sunday, but should start to break up as high pressure builds in late Sunday afternoon.
The 12Z OHX sounding shows a freezing level around 2500 ft MSL, and this is the level of expected snow/rain transition. The 12Z NAM has come in with higher snow amounts in the TN Valley, but its accumulation in the Valley during the day appears overdone given that temperatuers will be in the lower to mid 40s.
It appears that most of the rain or snow showers will shift east of the forecast area this afternoon as the upper level trough shifts eastward. The highs today will be slightly cooler than the previous day due to the low level cloud cover limiting solar insolation. No precipitation is expected tonight with weak surface ridging across our area, but there will be lingering low level cloudiness. GKS An upper level TROF will remain over the eastern CONUS during the entire period, resulting in a NW flow over our region. Initially, on Monday, the TROF will be at its most amplified state, but will flatten heading deeper into the week.
Upper level ridge over the Rockies will shift east of the area tonight. Short wave trough off the the west coast of Canada will move into the area Mon as a short wave/jet streak. Another short wave will rotate across central Canada Tue and send cooler air into the Northern Plains late Tue and Tue night. The second half of the work week will feature quiet but cold conditions with sub average temperatures as high pressure builds into the region.
Upper ridge aloft holds over the area through Monday, though it will start to shed some amplitude in response to an approaching upper trough. Do expect the fog stratus to expand again tonight, but not confident that it refills the lower Snake Plain, so have kept it out the valley from Mountain Home to Twin Falls. Mid and high level clouds increase further on Monday as moisture increases ahead of an upper trough approaching from the Gulf of Alaska.
An upper level ridge nosing into the west coast of California has pushed the storm track well to our north. By midweek as the west coast upper level ridge slowly builds into the southwest we could see our high temperatures running 10 degrees above normal.
Upstream obs and short term guidance have some of the stratus spreading south towards far northeast and eastern portions of KS, resulting in slightly lower highs in the lower to mid 40s. Forecast soundings from the latest runs of the HRRR and RAP guidance depict a fairly shallow deck around 890 mb with strong mixing of warmer temps at 925mb to the sfc. For this reason, opted to go a bit warmer in the upper 40s for the Topeka area, raising to the lower 50s for the Manhattan area, including points west and south. Gusty northwest winds at 15 to 20 mph during the afternoon begin to back towards the west and weaken tonight as another stronger upper trough enters ND.
850 temps will be some 4 to 8 degrees colder than yesterday afternoon and couple that with extensive cloud cover and low level cold advection, should help to keep temperatures from rising much today with afternoon readings in the low to mid 30s accompanied by a gusty northwest wind. The deep trof over the eastern half of the CONUS will continue to slowly modify. At first, the mid level ridge in the west provides some warmer temps for the first couple days of the week. Forecast soundings continue to hold on to at least low VFR cigs this evening and will follow that trend but we may see a decrease in the clouds as well late tonight as weak high pressure moves over our area.
Today and tonight: Continued slightly cooler than normal and dry. Early morning surface analysis had a 1031mb high centered over west Texas ridging east across the northern Gulf coast.
On Monday winds will decrease a bit and turn to the southwest with much warmer air arriving.
Have sided with warmer guidance values for today as snow pack is starting to cure. Low temperatures tonight will fall back into the 20s, with the low lying stratus remaining along and east of I-29. Winds will turn more westerly tonight ahead of a cold front that will move through the region early on Monday. Monday will see a strong jet max dive southeast and swing a trough axis through. Behind this trough axis northwest winds should increase significantly.
The S/W disturbance will exit east of Florida later today while the associated L/W trough rotates east across the peninsula late today and tonight.
553 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2017 The Four State Area will remain under the influence of high pressure on the surface and aloft. A large upper ridge over the Western states will slowly flatten as a series of short wave troughs move into the system allowing for a mid week cold front to move across the plains and central sections of the country.
With sunny skies today, high temperatures across our area will be about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday.
631 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2017 For the ArkLaTex, SKC and light West winds attm which will be picking up by mid morning through the afternoon with WNW at 10G20KTS almost everywhere as high pressure over the OK/TX panhandles builds into S TX this cycle. Climb winds NW 25-50KTS and up to 80KTS at high flight levels, a good bit less wind to be sure now that the longwave trough is East of the MS river. /issued 553 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2017/ The Four State Area will remain under the influence of high pressure on the surface and aloft. A large upper ridge over the Western states will slowly flatten as a series of short wave troughs move into the system allowing for a mid week cold front to move across the plains and central sections of the country.
620 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2017 Extensive low level cloudiness should decrease gradually today as the trough heads east. Cooler air will follow in the wake of this system, with highs by the end of the week will be in the upper teens to low 20s which will is a couple degrees below normal for early February. Looking ahead, cooler weather will move across the region as northwest flow continues, only without the leeside warming that we saw the last few days.
somewhat shallow eastern CONUS troughing with its axis extending down from the Great Lakes into the lower Mississippi River Valley. Western Texas higher pressure will have this west to northwest low level wind keeping the higher moisture shunted well offshore through Monday.
With more sun, warmer 850mb temps, and mixing/downslope have increased temperatures just slightly from the previous forecast for today. Yesterday was a few degrees warmer than forecast, and tried to follow the warmer trend for today. There is a weak cold front that moves through the area, but only turns the winds to the northwest during the afternoon.
509 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2017 The backside of a weak short wave trough remain over the eastern portion of the CWA creating the slight chance for light snow and flurries through the early afternoon. NW winds will continue to be steady 10-15mph with gusts around 20mph throughout the afternoon making the mid 40s high temperatures feel slightly cooler than it is, especially with more cloud coverage today than yesterday. A clipper system will advect down the backside of the large amplitude ridge over the western US and into the northern midwest Sunday night.
along with a developing warm front over the Dakotas early this morning. thanks in part to current mild temperatures along with warmer air already in place to the west of the area. Tonight clouds will remain as the warm front moves east across the area.
The highest winds noted at 300 mb were around 180 knots over southern Alabama. Troughing was noted from 850 mb to 500 mb from the Great Lakes region toward Texas and the western Gulf Coast. A ridge remained in place from just off the California coast into western Canada. A fairly strong trough was out over the Pacific along 160 degrees west longitude.
Upper level ridging across the Rockies and low level downslope northwesterly winds will lead to warmer temperatures today.
A weak wave is moving over the western CONUS ridge, generating returns upstream. With temperatures at or above freezing, it probably won't stick around very long either.
Early morning surface temperatures were a little warmer than previously expected, in the mid to upper 30s. The higher elevations of the Plateau will see an even mix of rain and snow with a light dusting possible.
827 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2017 A cold front will drop south through the region today. Weak high pressure will build in from the west tonight through Monday night.
Strong high pressure will remain over California through the next few days, maintaining dry weather conditions and resulting in continued warming through Monday.
/ISSUED 308 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2017/ The upper level pattern consists of a longwave trough across the eastern half of the CONUS and an upper ridge across the west. Trapped beneath the upper ridge is a cut-off low over Baja California, but it looks like this feature will pass uneventfully across Mexico over the next several days before dampening out over the Gulf. The upper ridge is progged to expand east into the Plains over the next several days. Both the GFS and Canadian stall the front north of the Red River due to strong lee-Rockies troughing in response to a developing upper trough along the West Coast.
300 AM PST Sun Jan 29 2017 Strong high pressure remains over the West Coast through Monday. This will bring intense valley inversions, light winds, and poor mixing with pollution buildup likely in the lower valleys.
Marginal to poor boating conds today as a broad trof over the ern seaboard interacts with a weak ridge axis over the FL Straits.
still expect the highest elevations to see some light snow today but aforementioned factors should keep areas at a dusting to quarter inch. though the higher NE elevations would have thermal profiles supportive of light snow and some decent lapse rates. Temps a tad cooler with highs about 5 degrees below climo norms.
At the surface, high pressure building into the area from the west will bring additional drying to the low levels. Highs today should generally be in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Lows Monday morning should generally be in the upper 30s to lower 40s with highs in the lower to mid 70s.
though the higher NE elevations would have thermal profiles supportive of light snow and some decent lapse rates. Temps a tad cooler with highs about 5 degrees below climo norms.
An upper ridge was located from the coast of California northeastward toward the prairie provinces of Canada. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure was centered over the northern Great Basin, with a second high centered positioned offshore from the western CONUS.
Warm advection ahead of the trough kept temperatures fairly mild outside of the precip areas. ASOS UP (unknown precip type) occurred at some sights in central MO, but with temperatures still above freezing, no adverse impacts were noted even if it did snow.
For tonight component along winds are fcst to be in the 30-35 kt range after midnight and with a mtn wave winds will increase over the higher terrain with gusts in the 50 to 60 mph range overnight.
As mean upper troughing exits east of the Mississippi Valley, local heights and thicknesses will make further gains and support above normal highs for the fist time in almost a week.
317 AM MST Sun Jan 29 2017 Dry weather will continue today and inro Monday as high pressure aloft slowly builds into the area. Not much change to Today's forecast as northerly flow aloft will become a little more northwesterly as the upper level ridge axis flattens out a bit.
VFR conditions through the period as high pressure builds into the region. Quiet weather develops today with high pressure building in over the region. Will expect lows generally 38-42 except warmer right along the coast. however high pressure will shift eastward allowing for a slow shift of winds back to the south and southeast by late in the day. Slightly warmer temperatures are also anticipated.
/Issued 322 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2017/ Upper trough axis currently over the high plains will continue to move southeast into the great lakes region today. A cold front will enter northeast OK Monday night.
An upper ridge was located from the coast of California northeastward toward the prairie provinces of Canada. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure was centered over the northern Great Basin, with a second high positioned offshore from the western CONUS.
Expecting lows to range from the low 20s over the NW Mtns to around 30F across the Susq Valley. Although some brightening is likely across the Lower Susq Valley.
As the western CONUS upper ridge deamplifies tonight into Monday, the flow aloft across the Plains will back more to the northwest.
520 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2017 An upper level trough crossing the eastern states will push a cold front through the area this evening.
1019 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2017 A dry cold front will push through the forecast area this evening.
612 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2017 A cold front will move across the local area today. A ridge of high pressure will build east across the region late tonight into Monday.
Today: Cyclonic flow will continue to keep low stratus in place for much of the day, as a deep upper trough was located in the eastern United States. Highs should range from the mid to upper 20s north to the lower to mid 30s south. Tonight: The trough/cyclonic flow shifts eastward while high pressure ridge moves into the cwa. With clear skies for a while this should drop temperatures into the teens northeast to the lower to mid 20s southwest. For Monday, a thermal ridge will push 850mb temps above 0C over all but the far northeast. The northeast will hold in the low 30s.
715 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2017 A cold front will drop south through the region today. Weak high pressure will build in from the west tonight through Monday night.
/issued 345 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2017/ WV imagery shows the upper-lvl ridge continuing to dive south into Mexico, where models close it off and separate it from the flow over Baja by 00Z Monday.
Broad upper trof remains in place over the Great Lakes and northeast. Various surface trofs and upper waves will pass through in the flow enhancing the on going lake effect. Today, secondary cold front will pass by midday and help carry the Lake Erie band eastward across the NY forecast area from mid morning through early afternoon. Still, deep upper trof with enhance the instability so some scattered snow showers will be in the area through the end of the period.
The axis of the upper level trough will sweep across the area overnight, with moisture lingering over Franklin county, TN. Precip will end by midnight when our temperatures are expected to fall to near freezing, however there is a low chance that a few locations will see the rain transition to snow before ending. Skies will clear as drier air filters in and temperatures will drop to below freezing areawide Monday morning. Northwest flow will persist aloft through Monday, however low level ridging will begin to build into the forecast area and surface winds will shift the south.
High pressure will remain fixed over the Great Basin, and will maintain a dry air mass across the region through much of this week. Cool temperatures have been observed once again this morning, although most areas are slightly warmer compared to the previous 24 hours. A warming trend associated with an expanding upper ridge centered from the Pacific Northwest southward to southern California will result in afternoon temperatures approaching 70 F across the lower deserts today.
Readings range from the lower 30s over parts of North Mississippi. Temps will be a little cooler than the last few days with more clouds and a shift in the wind to the NW.
Mid/upper trof now advancing across the region is being accompanied with sharply drier air evident on water vapor imagery. Moisture preceding trof has now moved well into the gulf waters. This as area remains under a west to northwest flow through the column between eastward advancing east conus trof and west conus ridging. Low will easily drop down into the 30s along and north of I-10 by sunrise, the lower 40s further down to the coast.
Saturday highs are getting colder each run and will be some 30F degrees cooler than Friday.
Low pressure centered over the Upper Snake Plain this morning remains nearly stationary through much of the day while gradually weakening. Northerly flow on the back side of the low pressure system meets westerly flow over southern sections of our area over the Arco Desert and Upper Snake Plain this morning, and this is where snowfall will be locally heavy through the morning. A wave of low pressure sliding through northern NV and UT will promote snow showers over the Southern Highlands Saturday afternoon, which could be locally heavy.