Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Sfc lee trough developing which may draw low level moisture nwd and consequently allow for lcl MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys in br to stretch from the KROW area to near KCVN and ewd between 14/03Z-14Z.
Latest SFC analysis was indicating center of large midwest high pressure was progressing eastward acrs northwestern IL, with light and variable local winds and current temps in the low to mid 50s. Aloft, very broad low amplitude ridging/near westerly flow occupied much of the middle CONUS, with one embedded waves noted on water vapor imagery acrs the OK/TX panhandle region. The above mentioned ridge will continue to migrate eastward, allowing lift east to southeast return flow wrapping around it's western flank as the overnight progresses. In areas last to get the return flow of far northwestern IL, temps may dip into the mid 30s or even push the lower 30s and experience more widespread frost again. This would temper the high potential in the west and southwest a few degrees from other areas.
With dewpoints still linger in the upper 60s, did not tweak cooler for the overnight low in that region. A mixture of MVFR-VFR CIGs overnight, with the lower CIGs really affecting ALI-VCT late in the night and then possibly LRD toward sunrise. A mid/upper level high pressure system is ctrd east of S TX and across the NW Gulf today. The high pressure continues to influence the weather across S TX by suppressing deep convection. A long wave trough oriented from the SW U. By this evening the higher PWATs ill shift farther west bringing a slight chc of convection to the Rio Grande Plains. As the upper trough approaches S TX, the upper jet begins to help provide upper support and combine with an unstable airmass to produce isol/sct SHRA's/TSRA's across the eastern CWA.
706 PM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 A cold front is crossing today. High pressure passes Friday.
Decided with this update to expand the high wind warning for tonight through Friday evening to include the eastern slopes of the Wind River Mountains, SE Fremont County (zone 19), and much of the lower elevations of Natrona County (zone 20).
At the surface, the CWA sits between high pressure centered over WI/IL and a trough axis along the High Plains.
Lows will be in the low to mid 40s tonight with the warmer southerly winds. On Friday, the upper winds over the Rockies increase with low pressure deepening in the Lee. Highs will warm to the low to mid 80s west of Dodge City and mid 70s to near 80 east with mostly sunny skies.
41 A ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern even with a very weak cold front moving into N GA Tonight. The ridge is weaken a bit today but a reinforcing ridge will build into the area from the eastern great lake states through Sat. The frontal system just weakens as the ridge just build right over it and keep the main area of moisture north of our area through the short term. Made slight adjustments accordingly and with a late period advance of an amplifying upper trough digging into the southeast CONUS by Thursday.
Expect high pressure to dominate with no pcpn overnight.
Based on current observations we lowered mins for tonight, with the low temperatures likely occuring this evening or just after midnight and then steady or rising temperatures thereafter. H7 trough yet to pass over the region and additional isolated/scattered showers possible through the night. As southwesterly flow aloft increases over the Rockies this weekend, a surface lee trough/low will deepen on the Plains.
Sly winds will likely gust in the lower 20 kt range Fri afternoon. High pressure will slide off to the east of the region tonight into Friday. The combination of light winds, clearing skies and lows in the lower 30s away from Lake Michigan should lead to areas of frost developing. Locations near the lakeshore should remain a bit warmer, and may not see as much frost. Highs should rise closer to or a little above seasonal normals, in the lower to mid 60s in most areas. We'll be stuck between high pressure to the east and low pressure approaching from the west. The milder southerly flow will be dry, so rather mild with lows in the lower to mid 50s.
940 PM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 Deep/brisk NE flow will prevail overnight as a strong high pres ridge builds over the Deep South/Lwr MS Valley.
617 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016 A positively-tilted trough currently located over the southern High Plains will progressively shift eastward tonight. With a relatively dry atmosphere still in place from the influence of high pressure just to the east, the deepest moisture resides well to the south and west of the CWA. With the increase in moisture and cloud cover, lows tonight will be much warmer, with some areas rebounding prior to sunrise.
1047 PM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 Showers will come to an end by early evening as a cold front moves through the region. That front will usher in noticeably cooler air for tonight and Friday, with areas of frost and freezing temperatures Friday night.
Overnight lows will be warmer with 30s and some possible 40s, instead of teens and 20s. Current surface analysis places trough stretching from southern Alberta into central Montana while high settles into the Midwest. Upper level analysis places broad ridge over the eastern Rockies working into the northern plains. High clouds continue to try and push over the ridge but for now mainly clear conditions remain over our area. For the rest of this afternoon into this evening, quiet weather remains over the area as ridge continues to push over. Otherwise, quiet weather remains as a flat ridge passes over the area.
907 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016 Other than the higher clouds streaming into the Devils Lake area now, another deck of clouds has formed over portions of west central Minnesota.
1205 AM EDT Fri Oct 14 2016 High pressure will build back into the region overnight and Friday.
High pressure will gradually slide east to our north, maintaining a weak pressure gradient across our area. The current thinking is that fog will form first in the Cumberland Valley, given the higher dew points and thinner cloud cover. Cold front has pushed to our east with light northerly flow now in place. NAM model soundings show the low level moisture remaining in place mainly south of JKL, so expect a rather cloudy and/or foggy night over southeast Kentucky. Temperatures will hinge on cloud cover so expect a range from the low 40s in the north to the low 50s along the Tennessee border.
1148 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016 Surface map this afternoon had high pressure centered over eastern IA/northwest IL. For tonight, high pressure will drift into the Great Lakes region which will set up southerly winds across our region overnight, especially west of the Mississippi River. The rest of the area should see lows in the lower/middle 30s. A breezy and seasonably mild day is on tap for Friday on the backside of the departing high and in advance of low pressure moving across the Northern Plains. Models indicating a push of southerly low level moisture transport into the area Friday night ahead of the cold front moving from the Dakotas into MN.
The cold front has pushed just south and east of Middle Tennessee this afternoon.
Clouds will then clear behind a departing upper level short wave trough. This low level moisture will combine with light winds to help fog to develop across much of the area. An occasional cold front may drop into the panhandles from a passing system, but they should remain rain free.
624 PM CDT THU OCT 13 2016 Mid afternoon surface analysis indicated ridge axis had shifted east toward the Great Lakes and return flow had become established over the Plains. This should lead to much warmer temperatures for Friday over the area with some increase in high level clouds.
Areas south of this line saw mainly cloudy skies with temperatures struggling to warm through the lower 50s. While temperatures will be warmer than what we saw today, there will again be clouds to deal with. Upper level height rises will then occur into the upcoming weekend with the Missouri Ozarks being located on the northern periphery of an upper level ridge.
As southwesterly flow aloft increases over the Rockies this weekend, a surface lee trough/low will deepen on the Plains.
630 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016 Lowered overnight lows a couple of degrees around Mobridge and Aberdeen. On Friday, much of the low level thermal progs available indicate it could get quite toasty across portions of central and south central South Dakota, with the potential to mix out some rather dry air during the afternoon hours.
Subsidence behind the wave is expected to combine with insolation to erode the low level inversion. Temperatures overnight should remain nearly steady as the low level cloud shield remains in place across the region. lows in the low/mid 50s to near 60 degrees should be common from north to south over the CWA.
The cold front looks to lift north later this evening and allow northerly winds at College Station to shift to the south, with isolated SHRA possible near the terminals before the boundary lifts. The frontal boundary will head back northward on Friday and a drier and warmer weekend will result.
1147 PM CDT THU OCT 13 2016 A few light showers have developed across eastern Kansas the evening ahead of mid level trough currently over the Plains. The RAP is still showing that a few of these showers could move into southeast Missouri towards morning as the trough continues to move east.
1033 PM MDT Thu Oct 13 2016 A weak flat ridge of high pressure will push through the area and allow dry and seasonably warm conditions to prevail through the short term period.
1034 PM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 Currently - A large area of high pressure spreading eastward into the eastern United States is reinforcing a ridge axis that had extended along the Atlantic and Gulf coast states. Meanwhile, a subtle lower level trough has all but dissipated across the Florida Straits. A large high pressure complex over the eastern United States is responsible for fresh northeast breezes across Florida Keys waters.
There will be an increase in mid level clouds overnight across north Alabama as lift increases ahead of an upstream short wave trof.
1215 AM EDT Fri Oct 14 2016 High pressure passes Friday.
The cold front was situated near Nashville to just west of Memphis, although a pre-frontal trough/wind shift has now dipped south of Winchester TN to Athens/Russellville AL. Winds are light or calm south of the trough, with a light north wind behind it. As this trough approaches, it is expected to deepen and amplify slightly over MS/AL. Despite the deepening and amplification, it will be challenging for the weak moisture advection and light precipitation to saturate the low-levels. Due to the expected cloud cover and precipitation, anticipating that the daytime highs will be somewhat cooler on Friday except the southern portions of the CWA where cloud cover may be less continuous (broken).
This will keep winds elevated out of the high terrain overnight, with gusts of 35 to 45 mph overnight in the foothills. Minimum temperatures will be moderated from the winds and warm advection under the ridge, readings will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s along the urban corridor.
Return flow has developed across the area as high pressure retreats eastward. The highest chances will be for locations along and south of interstate 35. Tomorrow the southerly flow will usher in warmer temperatures and skies should be mostly clear with the exception of east central KS. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 70s.
Orientation of the wind was not quite perpendicular to the ridge spine and indications are that potential temperature does not descend down the slope enough to drive these strong winds into the foothills. Temperatures will be above normal through the period and any moisture that reaches the lower elevations will be light. Heights fall throughout the day on Friday but downslope is a big factor for the lower elevations.
752 PM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 Showers will come to an end by early evening as a cold front moves through the region. That front will usher in noticeably cooler air for tonight and Friday, with areas of frost and freezing temperatures Friday night.
934 PM CDT THU OCT 13 2016 A few light showers have developed across eastern Kansas the evening ahead of mid level trough currently over the Plains. The RAP is still showing that a few of these showers could move into southeast Missouri towards morning as the trough continues to move east.
Weakening high pressure ridge with drier air is settling over the area tonight resulting in decreasing pressure gradient and onshore winds.
Temperatures will fall into the lower to mid 30s by Friday morning.
746 PM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 High pressure will build back into the region overnight and Friday.
Upper ridging modestly increases for the first part of the week.
Incoming Pacific storm will bring significant amounts of snow, freezing rain, and rain to our CWA late tonight through and beyond Wednesday. Temperature and snow levels will rise dramatically during the storm especially Wednesday afternoon, but cold air will remain in wind-sheltered valleys resulting in freezing rain there.
Freezing Rain possible for the Wednesday morning commute. This trend will extend into this afternoon, so high temperatures will be a fair amount warmer today in many places. Missoula and Salmon have too much cold air trapped in the valley for much warming so high temperatures will only be slightly warmer. There is a slight chance that portions of western Clearwater County, Idaho could receive light freezing rain this afternoon but confidence is low. The biggest impact with this system will be chance for freezing rain. Freezing rain could continue in some valley locations into Wednesday afternoon, but confidence is not very high on specifics.
However freezing drizzle with spotty freezing rain continues to linger. Even as the dry slot works into central Wisconsin, freezing rain may turn to freezing drizzle to continue support of headlines this morning. Quiet weather for tonight into Wednesday with a high pressure ridge drifting over.
Some stratus will likely stick around in northern Wisconsin after the precipitation ends, but as broad ridging develops at mid and upper levels across the Great Plains into the upper Mississippi River Valley clearing should mainly prevail. Warm air advection due to westerly winds through the column tonight into Wednesday and sunny skies will result in warmer temperatures on Wednesday. Highs in the low to mid 30s today, with lows falling to the teens overnight tonight - possibly as cold as the mid-single digits in a few spots under the clear skies, though a light south-southwest wind should prevent temps from falling below zero. Warmer Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 30s - about 15 degrees above normal.
The low pressure center responsible for the precipitation activity will push into the Great Lakes region today. A cold front of Pacific origin extending from the low will continue to trudge through the region as well. Behind the front, slightly cooler air will take hold. Partial clearing is expected tonight as drier air associated with weak high pressure builds into the area.
Associated upper troughing looks rather potent with some negative tilting expected by Thu night.
1007 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 Weak high pressure will move across the Coastal Plain today, moving over the western Atlantic tonight.
The split flow blocking pattern over the NE Pacific and Alaska that sent 3 or 4 arctic intrusions down into our area is now gone.
A stratus deck over the area this morning will diminish from the west by this afternoon as the low level flow becomes more anti-cyclonic. The upper low over Baja California will lift northeast into the central U.
435 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017 An upper trough currently over Northwest Mexico will slowly move east northeast and across the Southern Plains through the end of the work week. Southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the trough will keep abundant deep layer moisture streaming into the region. Farther south, more robust convection has developed along a surface cold front that is slowly moving southeast. Coverage and intensity of the rainfall should increase areawide today as vertical ascent increases ahead of the approaching trough. The highest rain amounts through this evening will be associated with the convection along the cold front southeast of a line from KJSO to KMLU. Rain will become more widespread this evening and tonight, especially across East Texas, as a lead vort max moves across the Southern Plains ahead of the main upper trough.
Some embedded waves were within the trough with a small wave moving northeast out of New Mexico. Broad high pressure at the surface will build into eastern Kansas today and then gradually move off to the east overnight with winds shifting back to the southwest across north central and northeast Kansas.
1020 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 A weak cold front will move through the region on Wednesday with widely scattered showers.
In the low levels of the atmosphere, an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across north Florida this afternoon. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, an area of high pressure will be centered over the northern Bahamas today. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a ridge of high pressure will be located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon.
southern end of complex positively tilted upper trough becomes cut off to the southwest during the previous period.
920 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 Moisture associated with low pressure and a cold front will affect the area today.
629 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 Aviation A storm system moving through the Great Lakes will bring rain and freezing rain to the area into mid morning. High pressure will bring dry conditions with slow clearing Wednesday into Wednesday night.
SSW sfc winds should get a tad higher today with models indicating 925mb temps rising to 0C to +2C, or about 2 to 6C warmer than yesterday.
An upper low over northwest Mexico will move across the Texas South Plains late this afternoon and this evening spreading rain chances, isolated thunder, and lowering cloud layers into the area.
Due to the current road conditions, combined with the lingering snow/sleet/freezing rain mix that's ongoing from the Twin Cities metro north along the Interstate 35 corridor and east into west central Wisconsin, have extended the advisory through the morning commute.
Broad upper-level ridging will build across much of the central part of the U.
At the surface, high pressure has built into western Nebraska overnight.
High should stay in place for next 24 hours or so with upper ridge axis passing overhead tonight into Wednesday morning.
The cold front continues to slowly move east across AR, with a west wind and a bit drier and cooler airmass behind it. The highest rain amounts will also be over southern AR with this system. Temperatures will mainly be above normal values with the upper high pressure ridge centered over the southeast US and back to AR.
Showers ahead of a cold front will spread over northern and western portions of the forecast area today. The actual cold front moves through the area later today/tonight, bringing another round of showers and the chance for a rumble or two of thunder. Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 51 61 49 / 70 70 20 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 48 58 44 / 70 60 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 66 48 58 44 / 90 60 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 47 56 35 / 70 70 30 10.
South southwest flow of 20 to 25 knots was present in the lower levels then veering to the southwest around 20 knots above 800mb. Freezing level remains around 13,400 feet and -20c at 23,000 feet.
1046 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 A warm front will lift north across the area with occasional rain expected today.
339 AM MST Tue Jan 17 2017 Mostly clear skies are being reported across the forecast area tonight as an area of high pressure begins to build over the Great Basin and Intermountain West. Looks like dry weather today and Wednesday with seasonally mild afternoon temperatures as a ridge of high pressure briefly resides over the forecast area. Expect clouds to slowly diminish Wednesday night as the closed low over the Panhandle of Texas moves east.
649 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 A weak cold front will cross the state this morning. High pressure is expected to build across the region on Tuesday.
Low clouds had cleared across much of northeast Nebraska early this morning with trend of decreasing clouds expected to spread east during the morning as an ampilifying short wave trough moves across eastern Nebraska and western iowa.
654 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 Moisture associated with low pressure and a cold front will affect the area today.
This will keep coastal locations a few degrees cooler than inland areas, but temperatures will still be above normal and climb into the lower to mid 70s along the coast to the lower 80s inland.
Under the low clouds, we are still seeing dense fog areas, in the convergent flow found generally along and north of Interstate 80. Overall H5 pattern starts out similar to a rex block, however rather more progressive than a blocking pattern.
A weak cold front will move through the region on Wednesday with widely scattered showers.
/issued 410 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017/ (Today and Tonight) A weak cold front moved across the area overnight and will remain well south of the area the next 24 hours. A closed upper low currently over northern Mexico will lift northeast into New Mexico by early Wednesday.
914 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 A weak cold front will cross the state this morning. High pressure is expected to build across the region on Tuesday.
541 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 A warm front will lift north across the area with occasional rain expected today.
The cold front will move through late in the TAF cycle with winds becoming westerly.
500 AM PST Tue Jan 17 2017 High pressure will maintain dry weather across the area today with some patchy dense fog in the morning. Positively tilted upper ridge will continue to dominate the region today with dry conditions. The low stratus deck cleared from the San Joaquin Valley late yesterday afternoon into the evening with mainly clear skies still prevailing now. Some patchy freezing fog has developed around Hanford & Lemoore as well. Expect skies to remain mostly clear today which will allow temps to climb several degrees warmer than the last few were due to the persistent low overcast.
Other concern was patchy freezing drizzle over northern Iowa but current weak band is moving through the MCW area and looks to be quickly east of the forecast area by 11z or so. The back edge of the low stratus deck is just entering the far northwest corner of Iowa and latest trajectory looks to finally push east of the forecast area late this afternoon, likely after 22-23z, if not later.
919 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 Warm front lifts through early this morning. Cold front this evening into tonight. Cold front is currently pushing into Western Ohio and another line of showers with even an isolated thunderstorm will for along the front. Several areas of precipitation expected through the near term as a warm front moves through early this morning, followed by a cold front late afternoon into tonight. transitioning across the western and then southern CWA out ahead of the cold front. In the wake of the warm front today, temperatures will be unseasonably warm with 60s for most locations across the lowlands. As the cold front crosses to the east late this evening and tonight, temperatures will begin to fall.
This could lead to a few slick spots for the morning commute with temperatures hovering around the freezing mark. weak energy aloft wrapping around a broad upper low over the Desert Southwest will keep light rain and snow going through around 8 am this morning across much of the region. the broad upper low over the Desert Southwest is forecast to drift northeast into western Kansas by late tonight. Dry and Warmer then Cooler and More Active. Remnants of old upper low will linger over eastern Colorado through Wednesday. Old upper low might possibly squeeze out a few snow showers over the southern mountains Wednesday but old low is filling and will be pretty weak by then.