Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The RAP model was a few degrees cooler than the HRRR models and our previous official forecast. The HRRR models appeared to be a compromise between the cooler MET/ECS temperature guidance and the very warm MAV guidance. The models show a portion of the high cloudiness across Wyoming and Idaho will drift across Nebraska today but in general, nearly full sun is expected. A weak pacific cold front moves through today with high pressure moving overhead tonight follow by a return to light south winds toward morning Saturday. Will continue with the dry and relatively warm forecast through the weekend as high pressure remains over the central US through the weekend.
935 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2017 Sunny skies with northeast winds on tap today as temperatures climb into the lower 70s. /issued 255 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2017/ Wx map shows 1025mb high over MO, with weak ridging through TX/LA. The high will provide a fairly nice afternoon, with temperatures reaching the lower 70s. By Saturday, the high shifts east, with winds becoming easterly, and southeast by Saturday evening.
Temps acrs the southeast plains will be much warmer today and will be near 20 degrees above average, with highs mostly in the 60s. Slightly warmer temps are expected in the high valleys today, with upper 40s to lower 50s in the San Luis Valley, and 50s in the upper Arkansas River valley.
Even with partial sun and limited mixing per soundings expect temps to reach around 40F into the low to mid 40s, warmest south central. Temps tonight will drop just blo freezing over interior west late as skies start to clear once precip ends. Elsewhere readings will stay above freezing.
River valley fog and a broad area of low stratus banked up against the higher terrain will continue to very slowly erode and dissipate through midday. Otherwise, areas outside of the fog and stratus should continue to see plenty of sunshine as high pressure builds in. In the wake of yesterday's cold front, afternoon temperatures won't come close to yesterday's highs, but they should hold near average.
A fast moving weak ridge of high pressure will move overhead later today and the first part tomorrow. The higher elevated communities of Idaho (Dixie, Elk City, Pierce, and Williams Creek in Lemhi County), still stand a chance to see a few inches of snow as well.
Patchy freezing fog in the Columbia basin into the Yakima and Kittitas valleys this morning. Cold upper level low moving out of the Gulf of Alaska toward the Pacific northwest.
As a zone of high pressure moves eastward into the Ohio Valley, winds from the south will become breezy across the state. This will bring a weak surface cold front through the state Friday night, but moisture is limited with dry low levels.
814 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2017 High pressure overhead will maintain dry conditions and seasonably warm temperatures through the weekend.
515 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2017 Water vapor satellite early this morning shows a rather flat short wave trough moving across the northern Rockies. The cold front with this system will come across late this evening into the overnight hours with some good warm air advection ahead of it. Once this system moves past the region, high pressure will quickly move across the Upper Midwest for Saturday. The flow aloft and at the surface will then transition to a southwest flow pattern as a system moves in off the Pacific and establishes a long wave trough over the Rockies.
Although winds are becoming more westerly, current temps still right around or less than freezing and prefer CONSALL solution that reduces temps in southwest zones into lower to mid 40s. Think there should be a break in the high clouds Saturday and with the warm air mass continuing think we should get into the upper 30s and 40s again.
Mostly cloudy conditions will continue today in advance of an upper level low off the northern Baja California coast. This upper low will move across the area tonight into Saturday and may produce a few high elevation showers and a few valley sprinkles.
846 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2017 High pressure through the weekend.
555 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2017 High pressure and drier air will follow today as high pressure begins to build into the region from the Ohio River Valley.
604 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2017 High pressure building into NY and PA will bring clearing skies and pleasant temperatures to our region this weekend. Building high pressure will bring clearing skies and comfortable temperatures to NY and PA today. High temperatures will reach into the lower and middle-40s.
Think there should be a break in the high clouds Saturday and with the warm air mass continuing think we should get into the upper 30s and 40s again.
41 Wedge of high pressure is expected to erode by the end of the weekend as second high pressure ridge dominates the region, resulting in above normal temperatures and dry conditions.
/issued 255 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2017/ Wx map shows 1025mb high over MO, with weak ridging through TX/LA. The high will provide a fairly nice afternoon, with temperatures reaching the lower 70s. By Saturday, the high shifts east, with winds becoming easterly, and southeast by Saturday evening.
TFJ Zonal upper flow will prevail ahead of an approaching Pacific Northwest trough today and Saturday.
1012 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2017 The first day of meteorological winter will start off warm in central Florida as high pressure and ample sunshine leads to temperatures about 5 degrees above average. High pressure settles over north Florida leading to a gentle northeast breeze, 5-10 knots north of Cape Canaveral and 10-15 knots to the south.
1058 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2017 A weak cold front moving into the area this morning will stall just south of the area tonight.
Chances for rain and snow for the higher terrain Saturday. Dry weather will continue today under flat ridging.
1042 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2017 High pressure building into NY and PA will bring clearing skies and pleasant temperatures to our region this weekend. Building high pressure will bring clearing skies and comfortable temperatures to NY and PA today. High temperatures will reach into the lower and middle-40s.
Temperatures will continue to bounce around in the low to mid 20s through sunrise, before quickly warming through the 30s and 40s.
/issued 341 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2017/ Satellite imagery and upper-air observations early this morning show a cut-off low off the coast of Baja, California, with ample sub-tropical moisture entrained in the southwest flow aloft over the Desert Southwest, then becoming more westerly over the Southern Plains.
Weak return flow will veer over the next 24 hours as a weak cold front approaches the region. Abundant high clouds will stream over the region from the cut-off low off the coast of Baja.
The high will move east on Saturday, with low level moisture increasing and temperatures warming a few degrees.
653 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2017 Aviation High pressure will bring fair weather through the weekend.
High pressure remains centered over Missouri, resulting in a mild air mass placement, but a predictably cool start under clear skies. 2 AM temperatures range from the upper teens in a few low spots, to the lower 30s in some Mississippi River sites to the south. December arrives like a lamb today, as the high pressure slides east slowly through the day. Yesterday, highs reached the lower to mid 50s associated with mixing just short of 850 mb.
544 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2017 High pressure overhead will maintain dry conditions and seasonably warm temperatures through the weekend.
404 AM MST Fri Dec 1 2017 Infrared satellite imagery reveals increasing cloud cover over the northern third of the CWA early this morning as a very weak trough zips through the northern Rockies. The primary forecast challenge in the short term was whether or not to add any mention of a snow shower in the highest peaks of the Parks and Elkheads.
A cold front is still on schedule to sweep rapidly southeast across the area late Friday night.
Tonight winds will veer towards the east as a warm front approaches from the south. Partly sunny skies and ample southerly flow will lead to high temperatures in the low 70s, about 10 degrees above average for this time of year. The pressure gradient only looks to increase into the overnight hours, where gusts could reach 30-35 mph ahead of the approaching cold front. Overnight low temperatures will be well above average, in the low to mid 60s.
At the surface, the cold front that came through yesterday is now situated down across the southern Mississippi Valley with high pressure extending from MN into the Ozark region. The main question will be how quick the low clouds clear out which will have a big impact on how deep we are able to mix. Meanwhile, the GFS is quicker to clear things out and thus has warmer temps. Progressive upper wave is still expected to swing across the central Plains Fri night allowing a strong cold front to quickly push through. For the weekend, upper troughing will remain over the eastern CONUS with broad ridging over the Rockies. This feature will bring slightly cooler temps for Tue-Wed with the precip chances staying north and east of the forecast area.
/issued 337 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017/ Post-frontal northerly flow lessened overnight and radiative cooling north of cirrus across northern Oklahoma has resulted in some sub-freezing temperatures. Model guidance has come more into agreement with timing of a fairly significant trough and associated cold front that will affect the area Friday. Still very warm in the northwest but a bit below the higher end of guidance, and cooler than most guidance for the southeast given the likelihood of persistent stratus for much of the day. The cold front will move through during the evening and clear the area overnight.
640 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 A fast-moving upper level trough will cross North Carolina early this morning. High pressure will move in from the northwest today through Friday, before moving offshore Friday night.
Upper-level moisture advecting over a broad upstream ridging pattern will provide for some overhead cirrus today, though ample sunshine will continue until Thursday night into Friday morning.
Went ahead and upgraded the high wind watch to a warning for Converse County and also extended it to the northern part of Carbon County given winds already gusting to 50 mph at Camp Creek just outside the Muddy Gap area as of this writing. Very strong WSW'ly jet of 155kt will combine with steep lapse rates, and strong dynamic forcing from the approaching upper trough and associated cold front to produce significant snowfall. Next in line for concern is the very strong cold front which will cross the area from west to east late Friday and Friday evening.
The main changes were to extend the winter storm warnings and advisories by six hours through 4 am Friday, and issue a winter weather advisory for the highway 97 corridor from just north of Chiloquin toward La Pine.
304 AM MST Thu Nov 16 2017 Today through tomorrow, with upper level ridging ahead of the trough, drier and warmer conditions will move into the area which will bring us 10 to 15 degrees above average highs for this time of year. Expecting some rain showers at first followed by mixed wintry precipitation as temperatures drop below freezing. Main concern for the cold front passage is winds.
623 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 Weak cold front currently crossing the Midlands will move offshore this morning with high pressure building in this afternoon.
A weak inverted trough (MSAS analyses) over the CWA is predicted to persist at least through early this afternoon (NAM/GFS/ECMWF deterministic. ) Anticipate that the combination of the trough and sufficient moisture will result in isolated/scattered showers Today.
a wedge of high pressure was situated across the Plains. A cold front is progged to drop into the northern CWA Friday evening.
730 AM MST Thu Nov 16 2017 Teleconnections upstream are evolving such that the persistent trough that has been lingering off the central left coast of NOAM will be replaced by ridging by this weekend. Highs remain above normal today and likely tomorrow ahead of the cold front which doesn't bode well for snow impacting roadways, but with convection it will be snowing heavy at times at higher altitudes beginning by the pre-dawn hours Friday. With the subtropical jet merging with the polar jet over our central mountains tomorrow windy conditions are likely and this will add another element of impact to the region where the highest QPF is likely.
923 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 High pressure in the Midwest will track through the Ohio Valley tonight. This high will exit the area to the east on Friday with strong southerly winds bringing a warm shot of air to the region Friday and overnight.
/Issued 400 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017/ Dry continues to be the forecast theme through the next seven days, but a cold front at the start of the weekend will help to bring us some cooler temperatures.
High pressure drifting east through the Midwest will keep conditions dry in our area. By tonight, a southeast flow will start to set up behind the low, and that will keep temperatures fairly steady through the night.
/issued 357 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017/ Upper pattern has a large ridge over Mexico with a trough getting ready to move ashore the WA/OR coast.
Later today, surface winds veer to southerly as 700 mb ridging sharpens over Central TX. Southerly winds increase tonight as a polar trough approaches the Rockies. By midday Friday 850 mb winds turn more SWly and lead to a shrinking moist layer with dry air working down from aloft to break up the low clouds.
Temperatures have trended warmer, thus nixing much of the snow that used to be in the forecast, not that there was a whole lot in previous forecasts to begin with.
Dry weather should return Friday under high pressure. An upper trough should result in scattered rain and snow showers across the area as it crosses today. Surface temperatures should be too warm for accumulations, though colder temperatures in the WV/MD ridges could result in minor localized accumulations. A tight pressure gradient should also result in some gusty winds today, with the highest gusts 35-40 mph in the higher terrain of WV/MD. Building high pressure should end the scattered precip this evening, and maintain dry and cool weather through Friday evening. After some partial clearing Thu night, clouds should increase Fri ahead of low pressure advancing out of the Plains. This low should drag a warm front across the region Friday night as it tracks to the Great Lakes region.
POPS should be minimal until the passage of the strong cold front on Sat. Much cooler and drier air will be moving in Sat night/Sun.
High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern with breezy east northeasterly flow. For the weekend a bit of a drying trend, model soundings show drier air working its way into the lower and mid levels.
In addition, MVFR stratus were developing along the Highway 82 corridor. A weak cold front is currently draped from the Ohio Valley through the Mid-South to the Red River Valley this morning. The mid/upper cyclone driving this feature is now swirling into SE Ontario, providing little in the way of forcing this far south along the front (mid level height tendencies are currently, in fact, neutral to positive).
Look for temperatures to get several degrees warmer than yesterday with highs in the lower 70s across the board.
1037 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 High pressure build into NC from the northwest today through Friday, before moving offshore Friday night.
Highs today will be above seasonal normals, in the low to mid 70s. (Friday) Unseasonably warm conditions are expected Friday as low level southwest flow increases and the 850mb thermal ridge strengthens and expands across the area. Southwest winds will become gusty during the day, with afternoon highs topping out in the lower to middle 80s, with a few upper 80s possible.
WV imagery indicates a weak upper level ridge of high pressure transitioning east across the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is strengthening across extreme eastern Colorado. A trough of low pressure at the surface will deepen along the lee of the Rockies today as westerly down slope flow improves across eastern Colorado and western Kansas. Based on the 24 hour temperature change in the 900mb to 850mb level the highs today should easily climb back into the 60s. Highs in the lower 70s still appear likely near the Colorado border. Models on Friday are in decent agreement with a cold front dropping south across Nebraska during the day as an upper level trough approaches from the west.
/issued 350 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017/ Surface winds will veer to the southwest this morning, helping to erode the low stratus over the Rolling Plains by late morning.
A cold front is still on schedule to sweep rapily southeast across the area late Friday night.
402 AM MST Thu Nov 16 2017 09z surface analysis had weak low pressure over southeast MT with a stationary boundary into southern SK and a warm front into central NE. Pressure falls increasing along boundary as warm air advection increases under upper ridge in place over the central US. Upper trough digging across southwest Canada into northwest US, which will be the main concern in the short term. Today, thermal ridge peaks over the CWA with sustained pressure falls across the region. Warm front will move slowly northeast today as lee trough pushes into eastern WY. It will drag weak trough into the CWA. Narrow band of moderate 850-700mb frontogenesis forecast by models behind cold front along with rapidly decreasing condensation pressure deficits.
931 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 High pressure will build Southeast across the region Today, providing Sunny skies, with diminishing winds away from the immediate coast.
Elsewhere, across the Highway 82 corridor a layer of stratus was noted and this layer will linger until noon. A weak cold front is currently draped from the Ohio Valley through the Mid-South to the Red River Valley this morning. The mid/upper cyclone driving this feature is now swirling into SE Ontario, providing little in the way of forcing this far south along the front (mid level height tendencies are currently, in fact, neutral to positive).
Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 36 65 49 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 34 61 46 / 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 60 32 61 46 / 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 29 60 38 / 10 0 0 0.
/Issued 410 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017/ Only some lingering clouds remain in the vicinity of the weak cold front pushing into Georgia this morning as the few earlier light showers in far north Georgia have long dissipated. Highs will warm nicely under the abundant sunshine into the 60s in north Georgia to the lower 70s in central Georgia.
An approaching cold front will produce increased southwesterly winds Thursday and Friday.
Any fog present early FRI morning will quickly erode after sunrise as diurnal mixing commences along with strengthening low level wind fields ahead of an approaching upper trof. Upper trof is expected to swing through the area late SAT, driving a stout cold front through the region SAT afternoon and evening. Much cooler and drier airmass to build in behind the front, with the coldest temperatures of the period expected SUN into MON, with lower/mid 30s forecast MON morning over parts of East TX/Central LA.
632 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 A cold front will move through the area this morning followed by high pressure later today and Friday.
Satellite imagery shows a shield of high clouds over the region early this morning as a low pressure system tracks through the area with first a warm front, and then a cold front late in the day. Latest 00z model guidance continues to support a building upper level ridge across the western U.
545 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had low pressure located off the coast of British Columbia with a trough of low pressure extending southwest into the eastern Pacific. Downstream of this feature, a low amplitude ridge of high pressure extended from the northern plains into south central Canada. At the surface, a trough of low pressure extended from northeastern Wyoming into eastern Colorado. With H85 temps ranging from 6C in the east to the lower teens in the west, highs should reach the middle 50s in the east, to middle 60s in the eastern panhandle. In sheltered and low lying areas, enough dry air exists, which will allow lows to reach the lower 30s. Clouds will also increase as well overnight, which will facilitate warmer low temperatures.
Mid-level high pressure still is the dominant feature across South Texas, keeping the area mostly rain-free. At the surface, though, weak troughing of low pressure along a dissipating front will provide an opportunity for isolated showers along the coast and over the marine areas today.
A weak ridge of high pres wl cont to bring drier and cooler air into much of the region.
Skies look to clear today as upper ridging starts to build into the region before the trough moves in this weekend.
A northwest wind ahead of an in-building ridge of high pressure over western MN continued to advect cold, dry air. Aloft, the flow was northwest ahead of a broad ridge over the plains.
Weak and stable offshore flow has kept most of the showers away from the coast this morning, however, a few are liable to get closer to land as the low-level flow veers more northerly. Coastal Volusia should have highs in the lower 70s. Drier air and a slightly weakened onshore flow should combine to promote slightly cooler min temps; near 50 degrees around the Ocala National Forest and mid-upper 50s elsewhere, except lower-mid 60s right along the coast south of Cape Canaveral to the Treasure Coast. Occasional MVFR ceilings along the coast from KTIX-KSUA will continue for the next few hours as a weak inverted trough offshore generates more clouds and a few showers in this area.
The greatest threat looks to be today along the Del Norte coast and tonight along the entire north coast when the trough axis moves across the region.
1001 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 Weak cold front currently crossing the Midlands will move offshore later this afternoon, with high pressure building back into the area tonight.
656 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 Cold and blustery this morning before winds diminish this afternoon and high pressure builds in.
629 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 High pressure in the Midwest will track through the Ohio Valley tonight. This high will exit the area to the east on Friday with strong southerly winds bringing a warm shot of air to the region Friday and overnight.
Temperatures look pleasant with highs ranging from the lower and middle 50s across the eastern Ozarks to the lower 60s along and west of the I-49 corridor. The setup appears to support some drizzle potential as the low levels begin to saturate and weak lift develops. Lows should range from around 40 degrees across the eastern Ozarks to the lower 50s along and west of the I-49 corridor. We have gone with a middle of the road approach for high temperatures with most areas at least warming into the lower to middle 60s.
439 AM MST Thu Nov 16 2017 Today through tomorrow, with upper level ridging ahead of the trough, drier and warmer conditions will move into the area which will bring us 10 to 15 degrees above average highs for this time of year. Expecting some rain showers at first followed by mixed wintry precipitation as temperatures drop below freezing. Main concern for the cold front passage is winds.
540 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017 The main focus for today will be the windy and warmer conditions across the area. Southeast winds this morning will quickly increase shortly after daybreak in south central SD as the surface gradient increases and a mid level trough begins approaching from the west. Despite the clouds, expect a much warmer day across the board, with highs from near 40 in southwest MN where the clouds will persist longest, to the mid 50s in south central SD. With cross barrier flow developing in the Buffalo Ridge area, expect local enhancement of wind speeds throughout the evening and overnight hours. Temperatures in the Buffalo Ridge area will likely see periods of warming overnight, with the enhanced winds and persistent cloud coverage in that area.