Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Fog is the main weather concern in the short term as high pressure is expected to continue building into the area. Temperatures in the 80s are expected as well today with slightly warmer temps than yesterday. Tonight, more fog is possible as high pressure is expected to still remain across the area. With the high shifting a little east, the dense fog threat may be more limited tonight than this morning.
1032 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 (This evening through Wednesday) Expansive upper ridging remains anchored over the western CONUS this afternoon with fair weather currently observed across much of the region. Satellite imagery points to a relative lack of moisture beneath the ridge with deep subsidence and midlevel drying spreading over TX into the Desert Southwest. The upper level pattern will not vary much at all over the next 24 hours as the ridge remains the dominant synoptic feature.
A broad ridge located over the western US continues to strengthen while a trough has shifted eastward over the Lower Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a weak cold front remains across central Texas. Otherwise, temperatures should reach the low to mid 90s this afternoon under sunny to partly cloudy skies.
This upper high will keep moisture currently over southern Texas and northern Mexico well to our south. With the upper high bringing subsidence over the region, tonight will be clear with light and variable winds and lows in the 60s.
(Today through Thursday) A ridge of high pressure across the Four Corners of the Desert SW strengthens through the short term as a mid-level trough drops further south into the Gulf, with a few perturbations rounding the trough and maintaining a chance of rain along the lower Texas coast.
328 AM EDT Wed Sep 7 2022 The upper level ridge of high pressure that has been holding over Florida will slowly break down today as an upper level trough digs into the southern Mississippi River Valley and northern Gulf of Mexico. Subsidence from the ridging aloft will keep afternoon temperatures warm today, with highs topping out in the mid 90s again away from the immediate coast. Atmospheric moisture will begin to increase ahead of the trough, with a bit more numerous convection expected this afternoon than the previous couple of days, especially from around Interstate 4 south and over the interior. As the upper level trough moves into the eastern Gulf late in the week and stalls out through the weekend, southerly low level flow will continue to increase atmospheric moisture, leading to widespread showers and thunderstorms.
1120 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022 Rain chance will lower through midweek as a slow moving low pressure system shifts east of the region. Scattered showers/light rain is expected to diminish somewhat overnight, though precip will remain possible in the vicinity of a slow moving mid/upper level trough. Scattered showers are expected to increase in coverage again Wednesday with the slow advancement of the trough, and as convective temperatures are reached. Some improvement is expected on Wednesday as the upper trough begins to shift to the northeast. Dry weather should return to most of the region Thursday as high pressure builds.
Water vapor imagery continue to show a relatively stagnant pattern with a large upper level high pressure dome in control across the western CONUS.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) An upper level high remains over the western United States. Clockwise flow around the high is favorable to send a weak cold front into the Permian Basin early this morning. The pattern doesn't change at all tomorrow so expect almost identical conditions with highs reaching the low 90s most locations and the only 80s being in the higher elevations west of the Pecos River.
1224 AM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022 (This afternoon through Wednesday night) A broad upper level ridge encompassing the western half of the CONUS will be our main weather driver for today and tomorrow. Subsidence from the ridge and plenty of mid-level dry air in place will keep precipitation chances at zero areawide each day. A weak cold front is set to move in tomorrow, but won't bring much of an impact other than a wind shift to the northeast.
133 AM EDT Wed Sep 7 2022 The wet period of weather that has been impacting a good portion of the area finally comes to an overnight tonight as high pressure builds in from the north.
High temperatures today are in the lower to mid 80s across northern and central AR, in the mid 80s to lower 90s across much of southern AR. The cold front will push south of the state Wed as an upper high expands over the forecast area. Highs Wed forecast in the lower 80s to lower 90s. Drier, cooler air will start filtering into the state Wed.
243 AM EDT Wed Sep 7 2022 Large ridge with anomalous 500-mb heights will dominate the western part of the country during the short term period. An extension of this ridge eastward into the Great Lakes region is oriented in such a way to keep us in fairly light northeasterly flow through the troposphere. Low- lying areas where small scale drainage effects and locally cooler temperatures occur will be where fog is favored.
313 AM EDT Wed Sep 7 2022 High pressure will start to build into the region today, leading to decreasing clouds from north to south. This high will bring drier and warmer conditions to our area, with temperatures peaking into the 80s by the weekend. Fairly quiet weather is expected for the mid week as high pressure builds in at the surface. Meanwhile, we'll remain under the influence of weak upper troughiness aloft. A few showers can't be ruled out over the higher terrain, though not anticipating steady rain like we've seen over the past couple of days. Clouds will decrease in coverage this evening and overnight as high pressure takes hold.
1013 PM MDT Tue Sep 6 2022 Massive western CONUS ridge will remain anchored over the west through Wednesday, supporting hot and dry conds locally.
(Wednesday through Thursday night) Strong ridging centered over the Four Corners will begin to nudge eastward over the Plains through the short term period. As a result, the positively tilted upper level troughing will begin to split.
1105 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022 A slow moving upper level trough will push east across Pennsylvania tonight and Wednesday.
(Today through Thursday night) A large domain H500 high pressure system will continue to bring dry conditions to the Panhandles throughout the short term forecast period. A series of disturbances enhancing negative vorticity advection in the H500 mean northeasterly flow, entering the Panhandles in the general clockwise circulation of the high pressure system will re-establish UL convergence across the Panhandle.
(Today through Thursday) Mid to high level clouds continue to stream across much of the region overnight with temperatures in the lower to middle 70s. Otherwise, light winds will continue today with highs in the lower to middle 90s. Otherwise, highs will be back in the lower to middle 90s.
The increased warmth comes from the sprawling, very hot 850 mb thermal ridge over the western CONUS slowly nudging eastward into western MN thru mid-week. The smokey, hazy skies should also remain as smoke from wildfires across the Intermountain Rockies and Pacific Northwest is continually advected eastward along the northern periphery of the ridge into our region. Lows tonight will fall to near 60 area-wide while the Twin Cities heat island remains a few degrees warmer. A very steamy early September night is likely across MN Wednesday night as surface dewpoints will have increased into the low 60s ahead of an approaching cold front. Only west-central WI will feel more comfortable with lows in the lower 60s.
102 AM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022 (This afternoon through Thursday Night) Upper trough axis extends from New York southwest through middle TN.
1110 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 Key Messages: - Areas of fog possible again tonight for some - Higher chances for rain returns this weekend Area remains along eastern fringes of broad upper ridge that covers western and central U. Weaker flow through large depth in the lower atmosphere has led to periods of pesky clouds and bouts of valley fog, which will continue to be problematic looking at tonight. As upper ridge starts to break down on eastern edge, could start to see some weak waves drop into the area from the northwest but so far not a strong signal in guidance for bonified precipitation chances. Much stronger signal exists as broad trough starts to dive into the upper Midwest late in the week.
1212 AM EDT Wed Sep 7 2022 High pressure extending from northern Ontario into the upper Midwest is still centered to the north of the SE MI terminal corridor late tonight. Northern portions of a very large upper ridge over the western and central CONUS Will stretch east into the Great Lakes for the rest of the week on into parts of the weekend as a slow moving upper low pressure system over the northern Ohio Valley region opens to some degree and wobbles off the the east and southeast.
(Today and tonight) The longwave trough axis continues to slowly move away from the area.
Further east will be a tad cooler. Starting Thursday morning, a sfc cold front is progged to be positioned north and west of our CWA.
111 AM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022 (This evening through Wednesday) Expansive upper ridging remains anchored over the western CONUS this afternoon with fair weather currently observed across much of the region. Satellite imagery points to a relative lack of moisture beneath the ridge with deep subsidence and midlevel drying spreading over TX into the Desert Southwest. The upper level pattern will not vary much at all over the next 24 hours as the ridge remains the dominant synoptic feature.
1212 AM EDT Wed Sep 7 2022 High pressure will build south across the region overnight then remain over the area into Wednesday.
Cold front will shift southward across Middle Tennessee today with much drier air filtering in at all levels of the troposphere. The lower dewpoints will allow for a very comfortable night tonight with lows dropping into the upper 50s east of I-65 and low 60s to the west. (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) 00Z guidance forecasts the southern end of the upper level trough that brought us the wet weather over the Labor Day weekend to cut off into an upper low near New Orleans tomorrow, then shift northward generally along the Mississippi River through the weekend.
300 AM EDT Wed Sep 7 2022 Rain chance will lower through midweek as a slow moving low pressure system shifts east of the region. A slow moving upper trough will continue tracking across the Upper Ohio Valley region today. Morning stratus, patchy drizzle and isolated showers will continue with low level moisture in place ahead of the trough. Shower coverage is expected to increase through the day E of I 77, along and ahead of the trough axis, and as convective temperatures are reached. Showers should taper off tonight as the trough axis completes its passage across the region.
- Warm and dry this work week with a strong cold front increasing rain chances this weekend. The elongated midlevel trough continues to impact the eastern CONUS this morning while the dominant area of high pressure controls much of the central and western CONUS. Forecast soundings towards east central Kansas are more consistent with patchy dense fog developing through sunrise, especially given the lower temp/dewpoint depressions so kept the forecast mention. Mid level ridge stretches east as southerly low level winds return warmer air into the region.
Anomalous ridging is expected to continue over the western U. Heights will start to build over the Plains as a trough swings down from Canada.
High pressure starts to move east of the area on Thursday, with winds becoming more southwesterly and temperatures warming aloft. Highs Thursday will be in the low to perhaps mid 80s.
The upper level ridge pattern remains in place through tonight which will keep temperatures elevated. Thursday, a trough moves in and as a cold front passes southeast over the region, temperatures will start to cool. After the cold front moves through Thursday, temperatures at 850mb drop into the low 20s to upper teens. Winds could also become gusty as the cold front approaches. Relative humidities will drop into the low 20s to high teens. Ahead of a cold front winds will be generally from the south bringing hot and dry air into the area. Behind the front, the air will be hot and dry becoming cooler with winds from the north. When the period opens Thursday night, the CWA is behind a strong cold frontal passage and strong low level CAA is ongoing.
342 AM EDT Wed Sep 7 2022 High pressure will start to build into the region today, leading to decreasing clouds from north to south. This high will bring drier and warmer conditions to our area, with temperatures peaking into the 80s by the weekend. Fairly quiet weather is expected for the mid week as high pressure builds in at the surface. Meanwhile, we'll remain under the influence of weak upper troughiness aloft. A few showers can't be ruled out over the higher terrain, though not anticipating steady rain like we've seen over the past couple of days. Clouds will decrease in coverage this evening and overnight as high pressure takes hold. By Thursday night, the upper trough will depart to the east and drier air will move into the region as ridging builds overhead.
A stagnant hot/dry pattern continues today into tonight with little change expected to the broad scale upper level ridging dominating throughout the entire Intermountain West and Western High Plains, not to mention a fairly dry air mass in the lower/mid levels limiting potential instability. Lows tonight are expected to range from the upper 50s(F) in west central Kansas to the lower/mid 60s(F) farther east.
Large ridge with anomalous 500-mb heights will dominate the western part of the country during the short term period. An extension of this ridge eastward into the Great Lakes region is oriented in such a way to keep us in fairly light northeasterly flow through the troposphere. Low- lying areas where small scale drainage effects and locally cooler temperatures occur will be where fog is favored.
Highs will range in the low to mid 90s with generally northerly winds turning to the east to southeast this afternoon. Highs will again range in the low to mid 90s with generally northerly winds turning to the east late in the afternoon.
601 AM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022 (Today through Thursday afternoon) An upper level high remains over the western United States. Clockwise flow around the high is favorable to send a weak cold front into the Permian Basin early this morning. The pattern doesn't change at all tomorrow so expect almost identical conditions with highs reaching the low 90s most locations and the only 80s being in the higher elevations west of the Pecos River.
304 AM MDT Wed Sep 7 2022 Water vapor shows massing upper ridge over the western/central CONUS, with large trof pushing onshore BC. At the surface, lee Northern Rockies trof is slowly deepening. Another hot day in store today with thermal ridge peaking across our forecast area. For tonight, some gusty downslope winds in the northern Black Hills/foothills may develop, as well as gusty south/southwest winds across southwest/south central SD as upper trof begins working into the Northern Rockies and surface trof advances into the western Dakotas. Strong cold front will push into northeast WY and far western SD Thursday morning, and central SD Thursday afternoon.
Current readings are in the mid 70s to mid 80s across the Central Valley, with a few warmer spots in the lower to mid 90s across the foothill thermal belts.
739 AM EDT Wed Sep 7 2022 The upper level ridge of high pressure that has been holding over Florida will slowly break down today as an upper level trough digs into the southern Mississippi River Valley and northern Gulf of Mexico. Subsidence from the ridging aloft will keep afternoon temperatures warm today, with highs topping out in the mid 90s again away from the immediate coast. Atmospheric moisture will begin to increase ahead of the trough, with a bit more numerous convection expected this afternoon than the previous couple of days, especially from around Interstate 4 south and over the interior. As the upper level trough moves into the eastern Gulf late in the week and stalls out through the weekend, southerly low level flow will continue to increase atmospheric moisture, leading to widespread showers and thunderstorms.
An unseasonably strong ridge continues to dominate the western CONUS, with the 500mb high centered over Utah. The NHC forecast has remained fairly consistent, showing a track that brushes past the western portion of the peninsula before meandering and dissipating in cooler waters.
722 AM EDT Wed Sep 7 2022 Rain chance will lower through midweek as a slow moving low pressure system shifts east of the region. A slow moving upper trough will continue tracking across the Upper Ohio Valley region today. Morning stratus, patchy drizzle and isolated showers will continue with low level moisture in place ahead of the trough. Shower coverage is expected to increase through the day E of I 77, and especially E of PIT, along and ahead of the trough axis, and as convective temperatures are reached. Showers should taper off tonight as the trough axis completes its passage across the region.
A mostly dry cold front will be associated with the trough that will help mix down strong mid- level winds, where gusts up to 40 mph will be common. Some high resolution models are indicating we could see isolated gusts even higher, most notably in the higher elevations of the Sapphire Mountains and along the Continental Divide.
532 AM MDT Wed Sep 7 2022 Water vapor shows massing upper ridge over the western/central CONUS, with large trof pushing onshore BC. At the surface, lee Northern Rockies trof is slowly deepening. Another hot day in store today with thermal ridge peaking across our forecast area. For tonight, some gusty downslope winds in the northern Black Hills/foothills may develop, as well as gusty south/southwest winds across southwest/south central SD as upper trof begins working into the Northern Rockies and surface trof advances into the western Dakotas. Strong cold front will push into northeast WY and far western SD Thursday morning, and central SD Thursday afternoon.
606 AM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022 Key Messages: - Patchy fog for some again tonight, otherwise quiet through the end of the week - Passing cold front brings precipitation chances to region over weekend * Quiet weather through Thursday Mostly cloudy skies overnight has greatly limited fog development from becoming more widespread this early morning. 00z HRRR guidance for smoke has elevated concentrations holding over the western portions of Minnesota and Iowa today as the expansive plume wraps around the area of high pressure over the southwest US.
623 AM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022 (Today through Thursday night) A large domain H500 high pressure system will continue to bring dry conditions to the Panhandles throughout the short term forecast period. A series of disturbances enhancing negative vorticity advection in the H500 mean northeasterly flow, entering the Panhandles in the general clockwise circulation of the high pressure system will re-establish UL convergence across the Panhandle.
The eastern periphery of an expansive, anomalous upper- level ridge centered over the Intermountain West will continue dominating the Midwest today through Thursday along with a low- level/surface anticyclone, maintaining increasingly dry northerly to northeasterly flow throughout much of the troposphere over the CWA into Thursday. Therefore, high temps today and Thursday are forecast to be in the low to mid-80s F--near to slightly above average. As the low-level/surface anticyclone shifts closer to the CWA tonight into Thursday morning, light winds and clear skies should allow efficient radiational cooling to take place with temps falling into the mid-50s to low-60s F.
From a synoptic perspective, Hurricane Earl northwest of the Leeward islands (no threat to the CONUS) and a weak upper- level trough over the Eastern Seaboard have acted to disrupt the climatological ridging across the North Atlantic. High tides associated with the coming full moon will result in less clearance under low fixed bridges.
626 AM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022 (Today and tonight) The longwave trough axis continues to slowly move away from the area.
A strong ridge of high pressure over the western United States will remains in place for Wednesday. As the high begins to weaken on Thursday, cooler temperatures and increasing chances of thunderstorms return to northern and central Arizona. The strong ridge centered over Utah will last through today, before quickly weakening Thursday through the weekend. The Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect through 8 PM MST today for the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon and extending up to Page. The extension of this product through Thursday could still be up for discussion, but between the weakening ridge, increased cloud cover, and chance for precipitation, it was favored unnecessary at this time.
543 AM EDT Wed Sep 7 2022 Rain chance will lower through midweek as a slow moving low pressure system shifts east of the region. A slow moving upper trough will continue tracking across the Upper Ohio Valley region today. Morning stratus, patchy drizzle and isolated showers will continue with low level moisture in place ahead of the trough. Shower coverage is expected to increase through the day E of I 77, and especially E of PIT, along and ahead of the trough axis, and as convective temperatures are reached. Showers should taper off tonight as the trough axis completes its passage across the region.
A persistent and stout upper high was still in place over the southwest CONUS this morning, with zonal flow across the forecast area. At the surface, high pressure was centered over northeast North Dakota, with clear skies and relatively light winds. A surface warm front will push east across the forecast area today underneath a stout low level thermal ridge, with forecast highs around 100 degrees in an area from Williston to Hettinger and west. Sustained winds will be southerly around 15 to 20 mph, shifting to be more southwesterly as the warm front moves through late this afternoon.
618 AM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022 (Today through Thursday) A ridge of high pressure across the Four Corners of the Desert SW strengthens through the short term as a mid-level trough drops further south into the Gulf, with a few perturbations rounding the trough and maintaining a chance of rain along the lower Texas coast.
402 AM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022 Key Messages: - Patchy fog for some again tonight, otherwise quiet through the end of the week - Passing cold front brings precipitation chances to region over weekend * Quiet weather through Thursday Mostly cloudy skies overnight has greatly limited fog development from becoming more widespread this early morning. 00z HRRR guidance for smoke has elevated concentrations holding over the western portions of Minnesota and Iowa today as the expansive plume wraps around the area of high pressure over the southwest US.
Another day of early September heat is expected today before a trough brings cooler temperatures tomorrow. Today through Thursday The ridge of high pressure that has been causing record breaking high temperatures will hold on for one more day. Tomorrow, the dominant high will flatten as a trough moves through northern Nevada and remnants of Hurricane Kay move northward.
upper high still dominating the region. With record high temperatures a little cooler today, we have a better chance of tying or breaking records at all three climate sites. Records for today 9/7 are: ALS: 87 in 2021 COS: 97 in 1959 PUB: 100 in 2002 Otherwise, there is still sufficient moisture within the center of the upper high to support some isolated high based showers and thunderstorms across western portions of the area during the mid afternoon through early evening. Dropped temperatures down a few degrees from the NBM in some of our cooler valley spots (San Luis, Rio Grande around Creede, and Upper Ark around LXV).