Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A very cold and dry Christmas Day across the Mid- South as 1026 mb ridge of cold arctic high pressure is centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Temperatures still remain below freezing across much of the Mid-South despite ample sunshine. As of 2 PM CST, temperatures across the area range from the lower to middle 30s across portions of North Mississippi and 20s to around 30 degrees elsewhere. The aforementioned ridge of high pressure will begin to move east over the next 24 hours, allowing for temperatures to moderate back into the lower 50s across most locations by Saturday and approaching 60 degrees in a few spots by Sunday.
A ridge of high pressure will push east of the region this afternoon as a weakening warm front moves out of the Red River Valley. Weak high pressure will then be seen for Saturday as frontal boundary stalls out to the north with a warm front beginning to develop across the lower Missouri Valley. Saturday night will see low pressure develop across the Dakotas and begin tracking to the east as a stronger area of low pressure develops over the Central Plains and moves into the southern Great Lakes on Sunday. As the upper trough swings through the Northland on Sunday, snow showers will spread across the region through the day before ending from west to east during the evening hours.
The next Pacific origin cold front enters our western counties during the day, spreading a chance of snow showers over the Sierra Madre Range in the afternoon. Low level gradients look sufficient for high winds over our wind prone locations, where the High Wind Warning continues through late morning. High pressure over the western half of the CONUS slowly pushes to the east/southeast across the Four Corners, with Low Pressure building over the West Coast.
Upper level analysis places low over the eastern Ohio River Valley, with ridge over the northern Rockies. On Saturday, with the exception of some morning fog a rather quiet day is on tap ahead of a little clipper system slides down the front of the ridge and drops into our area Saturday night. On Sunday temperatures will be a bit cooler behind the clipper, especially over the southwest where a breezy day is expected. Some snow may linger in the morning mainly over eastern locations, then skies will gradually clear some as high pressure settles in.
121 AM MST Sat Dec 26 2020 Two cold front will impact the region today. The second, stronger front will arrive later this evening, which will change any rain to snow at the lower elevations. The mountains could see upwards of 3-5 inches on the highest peaks. Slick roads are possible Saturday night as temperatures will drop below freezing. Sunday will dry out as high pressure builds back into the area. High temperatures today will be in the low to mid 40s before cooling on Sunday into the 30s.
347 AM EST Sat Dec 26 2020 Arctic high pressure will build across the region through the weekend. After a very cold start to the day, look for mainly clear skies and ample sunshine for the day, thanks to high pressure over the region. Clear and cold again tonight, with high pressure remaining over the area, calm winds, and similar airmass. Lows in the lower 20s. Little change in the sensible wx on Sunday, with high pressure gradually shifting east across the area. By late in the day, the high will move offshore, thus commencing a moderating trend with the subsequent return flow.
This is due to the mid/upper level closed low that is slowly shifting east with steep lapse rates lingering beneath it. The rest of the forecast remains on track, and expect a very cold morning with lows in the low to mid teens. Otherwise, surface ridging will continue to build into the region producing VFR conditions with winds generally less than 10kts. This is due to the mid/upper level closed low that is slowly shifting east with steep lapse rates lingering beneath it. The rest of the forecast remains on track, and expect a very cold morning with lows in the low to mid teens.
Until then, a weak ridge from the central Plains to the Canadian Prairie will slowly slide eastward, with the transition to southeasterly winds starting Saturday midday in western MN and Saturday evening in western WI in advance of the clipper. With the ridge over the area and fresh, especially in east central MN into northwest WI, so that will need to be watched. Anywhere from a dusting to an inch of new snow is likely for much of the CWA, with the higher totals across central Minnesota. The extreme northern portion of the forecast area may see just over an inch, but think that the highest amounts will stay further to our northwest.
A little relief is on the way tomorrow afternoon when temperatures should rebound into the 40s as an upper ridge passes overhead.
The good news is that we will rebound today as we gain a southerly component to low level winds and upper troughing flattens out with plenty of sunshine. The warming trend continues on Sunday as southerly winds increase ahead of a weak cold front.
1044 PM EST Fri Dec 25 2020 High pressure centered over Louisiana is driving cool, dry, and winter-like weather through the Florida Keys this evening. A nodular ridge axis is pressing through South Florida and the Keys right now, which has diminished breezes, although just temporarily. Temperatures range from 53 in Key Largo to near 60 across the Lower Keys. From synopsis, high pressure centered near Louisiana will move eastward along the Gulf Coast tonight, reaching the coastal Carolinas on Sunday.
A little relief is on the way tomorrow afternoon when temperatures should rebound into the 40s as an upper ridge passes overhead. VFR conditions expected through this TAF cycle with winds out of the south/se at 10 kts or less as high pressure settles into the area.
343 AM EST Sat Dec 26 2020 Dry conditions and a gradual warmup are in store for today through Sunday as high pressure tracks to the south.
1143 PM CST Fri Dec 25 2020 High pressure will move over the area tonight. Dry conditions, and warmer than normal temperatures are again expected for Sunday.
The strong low pressure system continues to march eastward which will bring a shift towards a more southerly surface flow tomorrow as a low-amplitude upper-level ridge moves over the Midwest. A trailing cold front stretching down to Texas will cross the forecast area Sunday night. A brief mixing of snow is possible with the arrival of the cold front, with any snow limited to flurries to a light dusting.
Temperatures have warmed, with 50s to near 60 across the Plains, while the San Luis Valley remain the cool spot in the lower to mid 30s. flat high pressure will move across Colorado overnight with a weak embedded disturbance arrives by morning. Mozley Sunday is expected to be a fair bit cooler than the previous few days.
An upper level trough off the Pacific NW coast and associated cold front will move into the region overnight tonight into Saturday morning. Precipitation will continue to push into the region tonight as a deep trough passes over the Pacific Northwest. Models are trending slightly warmer overnight tonight into Saturday, so precip across the Treasure Valley is expected to start as wet snow or sleet and transition to rain overnight. The Central Idaho and Blue Mountains will see snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with up to a foot over the highest peaks. A closed upper low will track south along the California coast on Sunday, causing sharp ridging over the CWA.
1248 AM EST Sat Dec 26 2020 Cold high pressure will prevail through the weekend.
Mid level ridging has shifted east of the forecast area allowing southwesterly flow aloft to begin overspreading the eastern Great Basin. This is downstream from an upper trough making landfall along the Pacific Coast. This trough is forecast to weaken as it moves inland and eventually across the northern Great Basin Saturday, however large scale ascent should be sufficient for a round of precipitation across the northern mountains, as well as valleys north of I-80, during the afternoon and evening hours.
1018 PM MST Fri Dec 25 2020 High pressure will push east of the forecast area tonight as weak zonal flow develops over the area. As the upper-level jet moves across the region, widespread snow will continue over the higher elevations of the Park and Elkhead mountains Saturday night where 3-6" of snow accumulations are expected by Sunday morning. Precipitation tied to a shallow trough to our north will shift over the Northern Plains by Sunday morning.
As this short wave exits the region 500 mb ridging will then rebuild over the RGV and northern Mex into Sun. Will lean towards the warmer side of the short term temp guidance (A blend of the GFS and ECMWF numbers).
1220 AM EST Sat Dec 26 2020 Arctic high pressure will build across the region through the weekend. The closed upper low/deep upper trough will lift NE and away from the area early Saturday, leaving central NC under the influence of quasi-zonal flow aloft through Sunday. Although it will be warmer than today, highs Saturday will still average 12 to 15 degrees below normal, so still very chilly with afternoon highs ranging from mid/upper 30s north to lower 40s south. Exceptional radiational cooling conditions Saturday evening/night will support another very cold night with lows dipping down into the lower to mid 20s.
The low RH, relatively warm temperatures for late December and increased winds will create elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon. A cold front will likely move in to northwestern Oklahoma before sunrise on Sunday bringing a wind shift and somewhat cooler temperatures Sunday morning.
To start off the week, temperatures near to slightly above normal as upper ridging builds back into the region. Another strong cold front will move in by the end of the work week. Early this morning: Cold and dry high pressure will remain in control. The dry air, clear skies, and cold advection will be enough to drop morning lows into the lower 20s and upper teens. Airmass continues to moderate Sunday with temperatures closer to normal, in the low to mid 50s, with rising 500mb heights. High pressure will remain over the area with dry and mostly clear skies continuing. High will begin to shift closer to the coast as a cold front approaches from the NW. Temperatures will drop to near around freezing Sunday night with some high clouds streaming over the area.
Expect overnight lows on Sunday to be in the mid to upper 20s away from the Gulf Coast and in the lower 30s near the coast.
349 AM CST Sat Dec 26 2020 Low level thermal ridge is well positioned to allow for notably warmer temperatures today area wide. Seasonably mild temperatures continue overnight as winds are sustained ahead of the cold front which will push through the forecast area on Sunday.
553 AM CST Sat Dec 26 2020 (Today and tonight) Zonal flow aloft will develop across the Rockies today, with associated lee trough developing by afternoon. Breezy southwest winds will persist for the overnight hours, along with warmer overnight low temperatures in the upper 30s and low/mid 40s.
(Today and tonight) Zonal flow aloft will develop across the Rockies today, with associated lee trough developing by afternoon. Breezy southwest winds will persist for the overnight hours, along with warmer overnight low temperatures in the upper 30s and low/mid 40s.
Winds will decrease with sunset, but the low level jet will lead to LLWS potential during the latter half of the valid TAF period. /Issued 349 AM CST Sat Dec 26 2020/ Low level thermal ridge is well positioned to allow for notably warmer temperatures today area wide. Seasonably mild temperatures continue overnight as winds are sustained ahead of the cold front which will push through the forecast area on Sunday.
903 AM EST Sat Dec 26 2020 Show showers will end today as high pressure builds over the region. Given all this, have extended the period of snow showers and flurries through midday, especially in the higher terrain. Only a small recover is expected from temperatures this morning into the lower teens and even single digits. The upper level pattern will remain progressive as the ridge in place aloft will shift east. At the surface, moderation of the arctic high will already become evident as southerly flow on the west side of the high will allow enough WAA to bring low temps in the teens Sunday morning into the upper 30s and low 40s for highs on Saturday afternoon.
These SRLY winds combined with a sunny sky will bring much warmer conditions to the state. with lows warmer in the 30s and 40s. and a new cold front move towards AR. some light rain or sprinkles could be seen along/ahead of the cold front as it pushes SE into the state.
936 AM EST Sat Dec 26 2020 An upper trough will cross the area today producing clouds along with scattered snow showers across the higher terrain. High pressure will gradually build into the region for the second half of the weekend.
Temps will be cooler than yesterday, particularly on the ND side as we will have east to southeasterly winds instead of warming favorable downslope.
343 AM CST Sat Dec 26 2020 Today will be much warmer, and already is as of 3am, with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. A cold front moves through Sunday afternoon and evening, but a lack of moisture, especially in the area of upward motion, should limit precip and certainly limit significant precip.
This should help draw in moisture in the lower levels which would allow low level clouds, but moisture is not expected to be sufficient enough for rain through the weekend. The modifying airmass will lead to temperatures warming today and more so Sunday, with highs in the low to mid 70s for this afternoon, and highs on Sunday in the upper 70s to lower 80s. For tonight, chilly conditions continue but will be warmer compared to the past couple of nights dipping only into the upper 40s to mid 50s.
At the surface, a subtle warm front will move northward through the region today, helping temperatures rise into the 50s for areas along and south of the Interstate 70 corridor, with progressively cooler temperatures as you head north toward the Iowa border. A cold front will move through the region from northwest to southeast on Sunday. No precipitation is expected, but it will bring in a reinforcing shot of cold air, yielding slightly cooler high temperatures (although western and central Missouri will still warm into the low to mid 50s out ahead of the cold front).
next low pressure system moving into Washington State with cold front draped across Oregon and northern California. Kept the High Wind Warning going for the wind prone areas as 850/700mb height gradients remain right around where we are now. Cold front moves through this evening.
742 AM EST Sat Dec 26 2020 Cold high pressure will prevail through the weekend.
455 AM CST Sat Dec 26 2020 A generally cooler day in store with cold air advection behind a departing boundary. Under the influence of surface ridging, winds will be light today, and these nearly calm winds overnight have allowed patchy fog to form across the area. Snowfall totals will range from a few tenths along I- 90 to around 1 inch through the Highway 14 corridor.
At the surface, high pressure resides over eastern Dakotas with a weak lee trof across eastern Montana and Wyoming. Upper ridge will continue to shift east across the central CONUS, with western trof moving into the northern Rockies. Western trof moves into the northern Plains as a cold front slides through the forecast area. Upper trof shifts east quickly with the forecast area remaining under fast northwest flow. Canadian high pressure sliding quickly into the area will produce decent pressure rises, allowing very breezy northwest winds to continue for much of the day. But high pressure moving in from the north will clear out any remaining weather for the afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler, with highs only in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
For this forecast, went with clearing of most of the low clouds except for Lower Michigan. Light precipitation is possible as surface temperatures fall below freezing. Thermal profiles indicate the chance for flurries or light freezing drizzle given the cloud layers at times will be warmer than -10C bringing the potential for some roads to become slippery overnight.
/issued 232 AM EST Sat Dec 26 2020/ Canadian high pressure has moved over the southeast U. Some high cirrus will spread over the region today, however skies should remain primarily partly cloudy but continued on the cold side with highs only in the lower 50s north to the upper 50s south. A freeze watch remains in effect tonight across the nature coast for below freezing temperatures.
To start off the week, temperatures near to slightly above normal as upper ridging builds back into the region. Another strong cold front will move in by the end of the work week. High pressure centered over the Carolinas Sunday. Deep layer dry air remains in place across the area with temperatures near normal as some weak upper ridging begins building. High clouds will stream in from the NW with a cold front just west of the Appalachians.
335 AM CST Sat Dec 26 2020 A generally cooler day in store with cold air advection behind a departing boundary. Under the influence of surface ridging, winds will be light today, and these nearly calm winds overnight have allowed patchy fog to form across the area. Snowfall totals will range from a few tenths along I- 90 to around 1 inch through the Highway 14 corridor.
Clear skies allowed for temperatures overnight to drop to or below freezing.
305 AM CST Sat Dec 26 2020 Ridging aloft will build into the PAH forecast area this weekend as high surface pressure gradually gives way to southerly surface/southwesterly low level flow. In fact, after morning lows in the teens, today's highs are forecast to jump 25-30 degrees compared to Christmas Day, with lows tonight near freezing. This feature will drag a cold front through our region Sun night. Surface temps are expected to bottom out around freezing right at daybreak after the pcpn has ended.
Warming trend expected as deep upper trough continues to move east while NW flow, subsidence and clear skies persist.
/issued 330 AM CST Sat Dec 26 2020/ Southerly winds have resumed across the Mid-South early this morning, but northwesterly flow aloft continues as the deep eastern trough traverses the Mid-Atlantic states. Notably warmer conditions are anticipated this afternoon with highs at or above climatology, mainly in the low/mid 50s. The normal colder areas in west TN and northeast MS may still dip below freezing for a few hours. Above normal temperatures will continue for Sunday ahead of this cold front with highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
916 AM EST Sat Dec 26 2020 Dry conditions and a gradual warmup are in store for today through Sunday as high pressure tracks to the south.
For Saturday and Sunday, lower tropospheric high pressure will slide from the northern Gulf states towards the mid Atlantic seaboard by Sunday.
341 AM CST Sat Dec 26 2020 Look for a mild day with sunshine and high clouds today as upper ridging gradually gives way to a more zonal flow as energy aloft moves into the Rockies. Low pressure will gradually develop across CO causing winds to become more southerly later today. Highs should be above avg in the lower 50s north to near 60 south. Low pressure will track into IL forcing a cold front south across the area on Sunday.
502 AM CST Sat Dec 26 2020 Today will be much warmer, and already is as of 3am, with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. A cold front moves through Sunday afternoon and evening, but a lack of moisture, especially in the area of upward motion, should limit precip and certainly limit significant precip.
645 AM EST Sat Dec 26 2020 Dry conditions and a gradual warmup are in store for today through Sunday as high pressure tracks to the south.
Look for a mild day with sunshine and high clouds today as upper ridging gradually gives way to a more zonal flow as energy aloft moves into the Rockies. Low pressure will gradually develop across CO causing winds to become more southerly later today. Highs should be above avg in the lower 50s north to near 60 south. Low pressure will track into IL forcing a cold front south across the area on Sunday.
919 AM EST Sat Dec 26 2020 A very cold start to the day with readings just now getting back to freezing at most locations. Expect overnight lows on Sunday to be in the mid to upper 20s away from the Gulf Coast and in the lower 30s near the coast.
Deep upper trough is moving northeast of the area with a moderation of temperatures aloft beginning. Surface ridging will be the dominant weather maker for today and tonight.
A trough will generate showers, a few coastal thunderstorms and high elevation snowfall this morning. Drier conditions are expected later today through tonight as a ridge builds. Another trough will approach on Sunday bringing wrap around precipitation into primarily Mendocino and Lake counties by Sunday evening. The ridge will transition eastward tonight as the upstream trough approaches 130W. The precip will eventually wrap around and spread northward into mostly Lake and Mendocino Counties by Sunday evening as this trough splits.
946 AM EST Sat Dec 26 2020 Cold high pressure will prevail through the weekend.
A lead short wave across the Pacific northwest this morning should move east and drive a cold front into Nebraska late tonight with cold air advection continuing into Sunday. The temperature forecast continues to use the guidance blend plus bias correction which keeps lows tonight in the 20s and leisurely advects cooler air in Sunday for highs in the 30s and 40s. Slight chance POPs are in place tonight across northern Nebraska for snow showers associated with the cold front and the lead short wave.
The approaching clipper will flatten a broad upper level ridge located over the region, bringing chances of snow to the far northwest by late this afternoon. When all is said and done, most locations will see a dusting to an inch of snow at most with the higher totals favored across the far north.
Winds will generally be light and from the southwest today shifting to the north by sunrise tomorrow as a cold front moves through the area.
330 AM CST Sat Dec 26 2020 Southerly winds have resumed across the Mid-South early this morning, but northwesterly flow aloft continues as the deep eastern trough traverses the Mid-Atlantic states. Notably warmer conditions are anticipated this afternoon with highs at or above climatology, mainly in the low/mid 50s. The normal colder areas in west TN and northeast MS may still dip below freezing for a few hours. Above normal temperatures will continue for Sunday ahead of this cold front with highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Accumulations, up to 2 inches thus far, have been confined to the higher elevations such as Lolo and Lost Trail Passes. Late this morning through the afternoon a cold front will sweep through western Montana.
631 AM EST Sat Dec 26 2020 An upper trough will cross the area today producing clouds along with scattered snow showers across the higher terrain. High pressure will gradually build into the region for the second half of the weekend.
After daybreak and as time passes, it could become harder to maintain the low clouds and fog, but will hold onto it in the forecast at this time and monitor trends. The aforementioned high pressure ridge will gradually sink southeast of the area through the day as the next weather maker takes shape to our west. Meanwhile, another separate upper trough will slide southeast out of southern Canada into ND tonight into Sunday.
The lowest visibility observations have seemed to match up well with the Missouri River, Lake Sakakawea, and Missouri Coteau. The approaching clipper will flatten a broad upper level ridge located over the region, bringing chances of snow to the far northwest by late this afternoon. When all is said and done, most locations will see a dusting to an inch of snow at most with the higher totals favored across the far north.