Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
757 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020 Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will prevail through Saturday, as a broad upper trough remains slow to exit the area. Pesky upper trough over the area will finally move out during the forecast period. Highs today will be in the low to mid 80s again with mid 80s to around 90 on tap for Sunday. Low amplitude ridge in the mid levels for most of the period.
919 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020 Weak high pressure will build into the area today. The high will move east of the region tonight. Mid level ridging will nose in across the area through this afternoon. The mid level ridge axis will shift east tonight. Lows will range from the lower to mid 60s. Highs will range from the lower 80s west to the upper 80s east.
Temperatures should reach into the low 90s and possibly into the mid 90s. The bigger player with the forecast comes in the form of a few moving cold fronts that will be the focus of shower and thunderstorm development through at least mid week.
The westerlies remain well to the north of CA and we are under the influence of an east to west oriented ridge of high pressure. The EPAC is seeing a rex block pattern as an upper level low pressure system remains nearly stationary in the lower latitudes around 22N and 132W.
Overall synoptic pattern depicts a trough early this morning moving east into the Mississippi Valley, putting us into an area of subsidence and decreasing sky cover, allowing temperatures to rebound to higher temps than yesterday. I can't say my confidence is the highest here, but I will side with the NAMnest and confine POPs to the northern third of the CWA, possibly clipping Grand Island for a brief time. Convection will fire along the front and perhaps ahead of the dry line/trough as well.
656 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020 Weak high pressure will build into the area today. The high will move east of the region tonight. For today, a mid level ridge will build east into the area. The mid level ridge axis will shift east tonight. Lows will range from the lower to mid 60s. Highs will range from the lower 80s west to the upper 80s east.
Winds will be their strongest this afternoon as low pressure passes through to the north. Recent short range model guidance still has the axis of the high pressure ridge off the southwest California coast for much of the weekend. More of a zonal flow is likely for today as a broad area of low pressure passes by towards the north. By Sunday, the ridge becomes more amplified as 500 mb heights begin to rise along the west coast.
This trough should be more robust, and will likely be coupled with better southerly flow and subsequent low level moisture return. In terms of storm timing, the highest severe threat looks to be between 1 PM and 7 PM, but we could see thunderstorm activity at any point during the day.
The low level winds are progged to be weak downsloping all day, with a normal drainage/downsloping mix overnight.
412 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020 Current upper level setup puts the CWA in a weak ridging area between 2 troughs. The high pressure currently over the area will slide east Sunday as a broad trough in the mid section of the country expands southward.
/issued 248 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020/ Wx map shows weak high pressure ridging across the Gulf, providing a light southeast flow offshore, with nearly calm winds inland. Temperatures across the region in the lower to mid 70s, seasonable for this time of year.
Narrow but fairly sharp ridge aloft is close to the Wabash River early this morning.
/issued 345 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020/ WV imagery shows the upper level trough axis moving into east Texas, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under light zonal flow aloft. Currently, KMAF VWP shows a modest LLJ overhead, which has retreated the dryline back up against the higher terrain.
A persistent ridge of high pressure will be replaced by a large trough progressing from the Rockies into the Plains.
We are now on the backside of an upper trough with weak ridging building in behind it.
Water vapor imagery this morning showed a closed upper level low over central Baja California. This will lead to scattered cumulus field this afternoon with a few buildups possible over the higher terrain.
707 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020 Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will prevail through Saturday, as a broad upper trough remains slow to exit the area. Pesky upper trough over the area will finally move out during the forecast period. Highs today will be in the low to mid 80s again with mid 80s to around 90 on tap for Sunday. Low amplitude ridge in the mid levels for most of the period.
645 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020 A mid and upper level low will slowly track SE from the OH Valley across our region today and tonight.
An upper trough situated over the Canadian Prairies will continue to bring seasonably cool temperatures to the region this weekend. Upper ridging will develop across the western U.
950 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020 A mid and upper level low will slowly track SE from the OH Valley across our region today and tonight.
516 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020 Overall synoptic pattern depicts a trough early this morning moving east into the Mississippi Valley, putting us into an area of subsidence and decreasing sky cover, allowing temperatures to rebound to higher temps than yesterday. I can't say my confidence is the highest here, but I will side with the NAMnest and confine POPs to the northern third of the CWA, possibly clipping Grand Island for a brief time. Convection will fire along the front and perhaps ahead of the dry line/trough as well.
Visible satellite imagery this late morning displays the early morning river valley fog in the southern zones now dissipated, with this low level moisture aiding in developing a cumulus deck now across the hill tops.
Warm and humid conditions will combine with a weakening upper low drifting to the east to fuel scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. So, that may actually help all but the higher elevation locations where they will be in the soup. The upper low is opening up as it moves to the east, and the axis of the elongated low will be right overhead.
1058 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020 Upper level ridging and warmer temperatures will be over the region for much of the weekend along with chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
/issued 346 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): Weak 500 mb troughiness will persist along the Texas coastline during the period. With the 500 mb troughiness in place and mid-level high pressure retrograding from central Mexico to west of the Baja Peninsula, daytime high and overnight low temperatures should prevail in the near normal range for the weekend.
A brief window of upper ridging is set to move across the area today. There still may be just enough low level moisture to undercut the ridge and provide some convective potential for today. The ridge is looking narrow and rather progressive and thus, active westerlies will quickly come into the picture on Sunday.
The gradient relaxes today as high pressure begins to build out west, leading to a much calmer day in terms of critical fire weather conditions. This west-northwest flow behind yesterday's trough will also act to clean out the air as the latest HRRR smoke model also shows the smoke from fires burning across Arizona and New Mexico being shunted south of the Colorado border.
515 AM MDT Sat Jun 20 2020 Closed upper low continues to slowly move northeastward across central Manitoba. Messy synoptic pattern as a result with trough axis stretching from southeastern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba down into the central Plains. Upper trough axis will shift eastward later today, taking on more of a negative tilt as the trough axis becomes oriented northwesterly to southeasterly.
While readings across the central and southern forecast area are essentially the same as this time yesterday morning, with upper heights building aloft I believe there is a chance we will see notably warmer highs today than yesterday. Didn't go quite as high as the warmer guidance would suggest (e. AD Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 68 91 70 90 / 20 0 30 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 66 89 68 88 / 10 0 30 30 40 Oak Ridge, TN 88 66 88 68 88 / 10 0 30 30 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 63 87 64 87 / 50 10 30 30 50.
A broad upper ridge is in place over the area today with models indicating a few clouds spilling over the ridge axis. Some of the energy from the trough appears to be getting sheared to the north into British Columbia. Tomorrow, the upper trough will finally push through, but with some drier air in place.
Ended up slightly increasing the chance of precipitation today given current amount of low-level moisture, approaching upper-level wave from the west, and warmer temperatures today.
Warm and humid conditions will combine with a broad and weakening upper low drifting over the Mid Atlantic Region to fuel scattered-numerous showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. So, that may actually help all but the higher elevation locations where they will be in the soup. The upper low is opening up as it moves to the east, and the axis of the elongated low will be right overhead.
933 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020 The Key West sounding this morning found a moister profile in the lower troposphere as compared to the last two soundings. The mid level cloud deck which was so prominent yesterday has dissipated, with the lower Keys under relatively clear skies, with the exception of a few cumulus about. The mid and upper level trough base has begun to migrate from the northern Gulf to the Florida Peninsula, which has allowed some drier air to slip into the mid and upper levels of the troposphere. So far it appears that the drier air in the lower boundary layer has had somewhat of an impact.
As the upper-level low pressure center continues to spin to the north of our region, we remain in a persistent NW or WNW flow aloft. An upper trough situated over the Canadian Prairies will continue to bring seasonably cool temperatures to the region this weekend. Upper ridging will develop across the western U.
Upper level ridge of high pressure over the region is being flattened by a weather system that is moving into western Canada.
1056 AM MDT Sat Jun 20 2020 Closed upper low continues to slowly move northeastward across central Manitoba. Messy synoptic pattern as a result with trough axis stretching from southeastern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba down into the central Plains. Upper trough axis will shift eastward later today, taking on more of a negative tilt as the trough axis becomes oriented northwesterly to southeasterly.
West of the trough, it is possible to get an elevated storm or two with only weakly capped environment.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are occurring ahead of the weak surface trof with mainly heavy downpours. Even these should end as weak surface ridging and subsidence overspreads much of the area tonight.
This activity is associated with a weak warm front out ahead of the cold front described in the previous discussion (below). The cold front extended from eastern WA to north-central OR, to the central OR coast and out into the Pacific. Interestingly, the models continue to show a deep upper low coming into the northwest US June 29. If that happens we will get another period of significant rain and mountain snow and much cooler temps much like earlier this month.
An upper trough will bring chances of rain starting this afternoon and lasting through midweek. Chances for isolated showers will start this afternoon as an upper level low pressure system, centered over south-central Canada, starts affecting the region. Given the high dew points across the area, overnight lows will only get down to around 70 degrees tonight. An upper low pressure system tracking eastward across southern Canada, will bring chances for rain throughout the short term period.
00 inches and general weak 500 mb troughiness along the Texas coast.
139 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020 A mid and upper level low will slowly track SE from the OH Valley across our region today and tonight.
Westerly winds will pick up slightly on Sunday as a weak cold front passes through with a few gust to 30 mph. Much warmer temperatures return the first half of the week with valleys highs back into the 80s under a transitory ridge of high pressure.
212 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020 Upper low/trough hanging over the Atlantic region finally pushing away today, as an upper ridge moves over us, and quickly east tonight. This feature also accompanied by weak SFC/LL trough and pretty deep moisture. Late Tue will also have a shallow cold front passing. Showers/isolated storms will linger into Wed/Wed night, especially east, until upper trough clears and weak front pushes into N AL. Upper flow remain NW on Thu but does shift back SW on Fri as a weak trough drops into the plains.
344 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020 Weak ridging at the surface continues into this evening. but the upper level ridge axis is slipping to the east.
245 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020 The first day of summer continues with very warm to hot conditions, with 2 PM temperatures ranging from the mid 80s higher elevations to the lower 90s. An upper trough that caused cooler conditions earlier in the week continued retreating further to the east, along the Mid Atlantic seaboard. Short amplitude upper ridging was building in from the west. The ridging and warmer temperatures aloft, despite the formation of cumulus and a few towering cumulus have not really yielded more than a couple of short lived showers (that occurred in the late morning).
Any activity will taper off early this evening as troughing aloft continues to slide northeast. Weak ridging will begin to shift into the area late tonight into tomorrow which will bring some drier air with it. The only caveat would be a area of warmer air aloft, around H7, which may hinder convection earlier in the day before diurnal heating kicks in.
The high pressure will quickly shift northeastward today, giving way to an amplifying upper-level trough that will slowly make its way eastward. The aforementioned impulse will act in conjunction with the upper-level trough to bring increasing chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly for this afternoon and later as model soundings indicate plenty of dry air through 600 mb to overcome before rainfall reaches the surface. Instability appears to be very much on the low-end, with only a few hundred J/kg of most-unstable CAPE, so thunderstorm risk appears to be low.
1031 AM MDT Sat Jun 20 2020 The trough has progressed eastward with the region just ahead of a building ridge over the Great Basin. Temperatures look to be on track to reach into the mid-80s across the plains and 60s in the high country. The low level winds are progged to be weak downsloping all day, with a normal drainage/downsloping mix overnight.
A trough of low pressure is moving through the Nebraska panhandle this afternoon and there are a few stronger cumulus developing along the trough. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the trough to the west and move toward the forecast area later this afternoon and tonight.
Cumulus field is much more organized across northern portions of the forecast area where the higher dewpoint gradient exists. High clouds will gradually build in from the west tonight which will tend to keep temperatures a bit warmer compared to last night. Some of the HREF solutions show the storms redeveloping in the higher dewpoints across the northern sections of the forecast area late Sunday night.
While readings across the central and southern forecast area are essentially the same as this time yesterday morning, with upper heights building aloft I believe there is a chance we will see notably warmer highs today than yesterday. Didn't go quite as high as the warmer guidance would suggest (e. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 91 70 90 71 / 0 30 20 50 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 89 68 88 69 / 0 30 30 40 30 Oak Ridge, TN 66 88 68 88 68 / 10 30 30 50 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 87 64 87 65 / 10 30 30 50 30.
209 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020 An upper trough will dig into the region this evening. As the trough lowers heights/temps aloft, 50 dbz height for severe hail will also lower. Best chances this afternoon may be where CU has formed along the Missouri River, and then with the sfc front/trough as it moves east. More than half of the models are indicating significantly cooler temperatures with some not even putting northern SD in the 70s. Went middle of the road for the new forecast keeping most places in the low to mid 70s for highs. The period starts out with upper level low pressure mainly over western Ontario.
221 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020 A weak cold front will move across Illinois tonight providing a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening.
254 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020 An upper level trough over the eastern Plains will move east into the Mississippi Valley by 12Z Sunday morning. Original thinking for the past couple of days was that the combination of this afternoon's/evening's convection and the upper level trof would be push the front to the southeast down across southern Missouri or northern Arkansas. This will mean it should be warmer and more humid than originally forecast. The warm and humid air could produce a few afternoon thunderstorms, however short range guidance is showing some weak low level short wave ridging moving through the Mid Mississippi Valley which looks like it will suppress convection. Carney The upper level low currently over south central Canada is forecast to deepen and drift southeast into the northern Great Lakes Region by midweek.
225 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020 Upper level cut-off low remains nearly stationary over Saskatchewan/Manitoba region. Surface analysis also shows a N-S oriented trough over central ND.
Warm and humid conditions will combine with a weakening upper low drifting to the east to fuel scattered to numerous afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms. An elongated and weak upper low extended from Central PA to eastern NC this midday hour. Earlier low clouds and fog have eroded from the edges with their bases lifting above the ridge tops as the atmosphere gears up for another bout of numerous showers and scattered TSRA beneath the mid and upper level thermal trough.
Increasing theta-e throughout the day with a cold front slowly sagging southeast across the CWA will spark thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Otherwise, CAMs favor short line segments along the cold front, capable mostly of wind damage.
Highs have warmed into the lower to middle 80s under afternoon cu field. Some convection noted developing out over the high plains in southwest Nebraska, but guidance keeps these storms generally across the western half of the state into the overnight hours. Quiet conditions look to persist through the morning and early afternoon on Sunday, before the next round of energy in the upper trof moves into the central plains around peak heating.
/issued 412 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020/ Current upper level setup puts the CWA in a weak ridging area between 2 troughs. The high pressure currently over the area will slide east Sunday as a broad trough in the mid section of the country expands southward.
However, with lack of any meaningful low level focus and with mid/upper level support well to the north from the northern Texas Panhandle into western Kansas in the form of an upper level short wave trough, it is looking pretty grim for additional thunderstorms chances this evening. Late tonight should see a combination of the aforementioned upper trough combining with some mid level isentropic lift along the Red River to initiate thunderstorms, but that should occur to the east of the forecast area.
405 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020 Despite a mid level ridge pushing east across the region, isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue to develop and impact portions of the area. With the mid level ridge overhead tonight, this shower activity should fade away this evening, setting up mainly clear skies with light winds tonight. Mid/upper level low will hobble its way through the Great Lakes region during the period. This system will carve out a mean trough over the eastern CONUS for most of the period while multiple short wave impulses traverse the base.
High temperatures will top out in the lower 90s. Latest RAP analysis has 500mb ridge axis over the area this afternoon as water vapor imagery showing eastward shift of upper low to the mid-Atlantic region. Focus in the short term will be on short wave energy ejecting out of the central plains from the base of closed low centered over Manitoba along with associated surface frontal wave moving out of Iowa. Similar setup for Sunday but with a little better moisture return ahead of slow moving cold front. Forecast period to begin with longwave trough axis shifting eastward toward the great lakes region. Short wave energy ejecting out ahead of this will bring some modest forcing into the region and will combine with a little better moisture return on SW flow in the low levels.
146 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020 Weak high pressure will build into the area today. The high will move east of the region tonight. Mid level ridging will nose in across the area through this afternoon. The mid level ridge axis will shift east tonight. Lows will range from the lower to mid 60s. Highs will range from the lower 80s west to the upper 80s east.
228 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020 An upper level trough is centered over southern Canada and extends southward into Texas. The upper trough axis will move east of the area on Sunday, and the dryline will be pushed to the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos.
PCPN expected to be minimal today as upper ridge strengthens a bit.
Rain chances will be suppressed to 10 percent or less today due to the building ridge, but height rises will tend to favor hot conditions this afternoon. Leaned on the warmer side of guidance for this update and raised highs by a couple degrees in the south based on latest trends. Tomorrow, the ridge situates east of the forecast area. As a result, we'll see a return to southerly/southeasterly flow, especially in the lower levels.
130 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020 A mid and upper level low will slowly track SE from the OH Valley across our region today and tonight.
240 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2020 Overview: Cyclonic flow aloft (assoc/w a broad upper trough over the Central/Northern CONUS) will prevail today -- transitioning to NW flow aloft on Sunday. At the start of the forecast period, an upper trough will be centered over Nebraska and the Dakotas as it continues on its eastward progression across the northern half of the nation. The Tri-State area will be under northwest flow aloft with an upper ridge over the Western CONUS.
These clouds will remain high based and persist through the overnight hours so lows will be a bit warmer than we've seen over the last few days. High pressure starts building in over the Intermountain West as the jet stream rides up and over the ridge axis.
245 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020 The upper low responsible for the cold, wet, and cloudy weather this past week will finally move offshore tonight.
As the upper level low centered across the Carolinas shifts eastward, upper level ridging will build into the tri-state region. High temperatures will remain above normal tomorrow with highs in the lower to mid 90s. Lows will be in the lower 70s.
Think some patchy fog is on tap for the northern valley again tonight, especially given slightly cooler temperatures and the presence of some additional rainfall today.
145 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020 A closed low aloft is moving over the mid-Atlantic region as upper ridging builds to the west of Florida. High pressure will remain over the region for the next several days, with light winds turning onshore with the sea breeze each afternoon.
Thus, the highest PoPs, for this evening, mainly center over the Concho Valley. Warmer and Possible Rain West. Hot then Cooler with Possible Rain.