Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Widespread sustained south winds now reaching speeds in the lower 20s with some gusts to near 30 kts. A stolid mid level ridge over the southwest U. and high pressure over the Gulf interacting with lower pressure inland is resulting in fairly persistent short term conditions. A shallow, mid level spot low over the Lower Mississippi Valley will drift out over the North Gulf through Friday, but not seeing much immediate impact. The 1016 mb isobar over the west Gulf will shift east under the low on Friday, with slightly weaker winds possible as a result of the resulting looser pressure gradient with lower upstream pressure. Heat index values will again be above the century mark this afternoon, with the higher values ranging from 105 to 108 degrees west of U.
Current Water Vapor Satellite loop shows mainly zonal flow across the area with weak ridging across the western United States. models indicate increasing subsidence aloft as the ridge axis intensifies and moves into Wyoming today. Highs will be near or slightly below normal today and generally in the 80's Friday will be similar to today and maybe a few degrees warmer. Believe coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be higher due to an upper level disturbance moving southeast across the high plains.
A building ridge of high pressure will lead to very warm readings inland while onshore flow will keep coastal spots much cooler. Inland temperatures will cool back to near seasonal averages over the weekend as an upper level trough develops off of the West Coast.
340 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 A weak cold front will continue to sink southward tonight and tomorrow.
There is a weak surface front Friday afternoon that will generate some breezy 10 to 20 mph winds in the Snake Plain and Ridge tops of the central mountains, not enough to warrant any advisories.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): A strong 594 DAM upper high looks to remain anchored in the vicinity of southwest NM through the forecast period thereby maintaining a dry, subsident, and weak northeast to east flow aloft over deep south TX.
with the higher confidence affecting the ELD terminal.
with the first anchored on an effective warm front just south of the CWA border. we actually expect this activity to take a gradual southeastward shift as the instability axis continues to get suppressed south this morning and afternoon as high pressure noses into the Central Plains. aforementioned high pressure to slowly slide east with time which should allow for much of our area to see dry conditions. Cannot rule out some isolated activity across the far south once again as front looks to linger south our the CWA boundary and the low-level jet once again increases. Similar story for Friday with mostly dry conditions expected north of the Route 50 corridor with high temps remaining a few degrees below average as northerly flow associated with high pressure to our north prevails.
306 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 An upper level short wave trof was dropping southeastward through the forecast area this afternoon. Meanwhile, a series of surface trofs were moving across the area as the vertically stacked system that was overhead yesterday continues to pull of to the northeast. The upper level trof will slowly move over northwest Wisconsin tonight as the aforementioned system exits. However, another upper level trof is progged to clip the Canadian border in the afternoon.
/issued 1055 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016/ High pressure ridging across the area has a general SE flow across the area. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon with the highest chances across the southern half of the area.
Dewpoints in the lower 70s across CWA late this morning, to lower into the mid 60s over the IL river valley during the afternoon behind the front while staying in the lower 70s in southeast IL. 08z/3am surface analysis shows cold front extending from Michigan to northern Missouri. Synoptic cold front will make only slow progress southeastward today: however, most model guidance indicates a dry day across the area. Meanwhile, a cooler/drier airmass will gradually filter into the area from the northwest, allowing overnight low temperatures to drop into the lower to middle 60s everywhere except the far SE.
The storms will drift southeast into south central MO over the next few hours, but some additional development will be possible along the western/northwestern flank of the cluster along the low level boundary just north of KSGF.
234 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016 20z surface analysis had a ridge of high pressure centered over the CWA. This will bring southeasterly winds and warmer temperatures. Low amplified trough/ULL will be in place over the Pacific NW with weak ridging in the Northern Plains for the weekend.
The showers and increase cloud cover has brought cooler conditions to much of the area, except the far eastern Ozarks, where more sun has occur.
Instability and deep shear values are greatest in this region where the highest pops will be placed. The flow aloft will begin to transition back to Southwest over the weekend with warmer temperatures again under the dry and warmer flow.
This complex could keep surging southeast down the ridge. At this time it should weaken as it pulls away from its support and the h85 theta-e ridge.
Another upper level trough will cross the Great Lakes Friday night.
346 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 A typical summer pattern will persist over the next few days with high pressure well offshore and a trough of low pressure inland. A weak trough will linger across eastern North Carolina over the weekend. As of 340 PM Thursday, a cold front will sink into the northern portions of the CWA early Friday before retreating slowly north during the day. Temperatures looks to be a degree or two cooler tomorrow with a bit more cloud cover and have opted to hold off on any Heat Advisories tomorrow as conditions will be a bit more marginal.
359 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016 (Today and Tonight) A deepening upper trough over the Desert Southwest, will form a closed low as it drops south into northwest Mexico this evening. Precipitation may taper off this evening but will ramp up again after midnight as lift increases with an approaching disturbance ahead of the upper low.
248 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016 Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows upper level closed low over eastern Canada and northeast United States and longwave trough over the Rocky Mountains. as surface/upper level ridge axis builds into eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin Saturday morning. High temperatures today are expected to remain nearly steady in the lower to middle 30s.
1150 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 High pressure will continue to build in from the southwest tonight into Saturday.
Surface temperatures in valley locations are at or just slightly above freezing, with little in the way of snowfall accumulation likely through the evening.
/Issued 900 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016/ High pressure will continue across the area. /Issued 220 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016/ High pressure continues to build into the region behind yesterdays frontal system that has moved off the eastern seaboard. Mostly clear skies expected to continue through the short term as this high pressure ridge dominates the weather pattern for the next few days. A cooler airmass has moved in over the region with temps tonight expected to dip down into the 30s across most of the area.
Overnight, the high pressure should begin to slide eastward, which will cause our surface winds to back southerly by morning. With a slight uptick in cloud cover, temperatures over southeast KS and far southwest Missouri will likely only drop into the lower 30s overnight tonight. Friday, a trough digs southward across northwestern Mexico and closes off. As the upper low across northwest Mexico begins to slowly slide eastward with time, the first of a series of mid level impulses will slide through the region late Friday and into early Saturday. As for precipitation type on Saturday, think much of the precipitation will be liquid as boundary layer temps remain above freezing mostly with a relatively high wet bulb zero.
An approaching upper trough to our west is signaling a return of low ceilings. Once ceilings develop, they may lower, as the lower levels become more saturated. /issued 357 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016/ (Tonight and Friday) An upper trough will deepen over the southwestern CONUS tonight, with a closed low developing over southwestern Arizona Friday afternoon. As a result, temperatures will be warmer than last night, with lows expected to be in the 40s. With isentropic lift and the potential for saturation in the low-levels and a warm air advection pattern, the models hint at patchy drizzle/fog developing in the morning.
With high pressure centered over MS/AL today, a dry NW flow through the low levels will continue. Models generally show neutral advection at 850 mb today, which should result in high temps near or slightly warmer than yesterday and close to seasonal normals, in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Tomorrow should be a near repeat of day, perhaps slightly warmer if we break out into sun. Although some numerical models indicate a loss of ice crystals in the dendritic growth zone Friday night, this is not a favorable setup for freezing drizzle as the boundary layer will remain rather dry. By the time we would have a chance to saturate down to the surface, we would probably have ice crystals introduced, and any warm layer should cool to below zero, so not looking for any freezing liquid occurring.
308 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 High pressure will prevail through Saturday.
307 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016 One more dry/mild day as upper low digs across southern California into northern Baja region.
335 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 High pressure will build over the Eastern U.
A trough will sharpen from eastern Montana into western Arizona Friday morning and a closed low should form over southwest Arizona by Friday evening. That closed low will strengthen and drop down into Mexico Friday night and Saturday as a wave in the northern part of the stream moves out across the northern and central parts of the Plains.
The low clouds in northern MO have kept temperatures slightly cooler there than the rest of MO but the clouds are expected to move northeast out of MO tonight giving is mostly clear skies tomorrow. Temperatures the five days or so will be near normal with highs ranging from the low 40s to low 50s and lows ranging from the mid 20s to low 30s. The upper level trough currently in the Northwest US will approach the area Saturday.
315 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 Low pressure will exit into the maritimes today and tonight.
This trough is not really moving all that fast, in fact will elongate northeast-southwest over the next 24hrs, effectively remaining overhead through Friday. Temperatures will be a few degrees colder on Friday with the trough overhead, with relatively light winds continuing through this time. On Friday night, a disturbance moving southeast across Wyoming on the nose of a strong northwest jet will nudge the stagnant trough to the east. High pressure building in from the west on the wake of this disturbance, combined with pressure falls expected to occur across the plains ahead of the trough will strengthen the sfc pressure gradient rapidly across southeast Wyoming Friday night. With downslope winds in place, along with rising heights aloft, it should be about 5 degrees warmer.
1008 PM MST Thu Dec 1 2016 Deep and broad upper trough continues across much of the CONUS with NW flow aloft persisting over the northern plains.
1246 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 Low pressure will move east into the Canadian Maritimes overnight.
315 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016 General high surface pressure and slight ridging aloft will keep conditions dry for most of the PAH forecast area through the daylight hours Saturday, though clouds will be on the increase from southwest to northeast even before daybreak. Dewpoints in the lower 30s represent the dry air in the lower trop that will have to be overcome by the falling pcpn.
Current forecast on track with mention of patchy fog, intermittent freezing drizzle for central ND, and slight chances of light snow. Intermittent light patchy freezing drizzle continues to fall over central areas of the ND. Chances for light freezing drizzle and light snow will continue through the overnight hours. Concerns for the short term involve the patchy freezing drizzle across the central and east with some patchy fog tonight. Lack of seeder-feeder ice crystals will also support some patchy freezing drizzle through the night north and east.
441 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 High pressure will continue to build in from the southwest into Saturday.
1228 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 Flow around a large low pressure system to the northeast will keep cool and mainly cloudy conditions across the region through Friday. High pressure will build in Saturday.
345 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 Flow around a large low pressure system to the northeast will keep cool and mainly cloudy conditions across the region today. High pressure will gradually build into the area on Saturday.
This slightly warmer air along with slightly higher winds will keep lows even warmer Friday night. By Saturday, a cut-off low develops on the southern end of the next longwave trough axis moving into the upper Midwest. Over the Tennessee Valley this transitions us into southwestern flow, which advects quite a bit warmer and moister air into the region. Evaporative cooling near the surface along with increasing cloudiness will likely help keep temperatures from rising above the lower 50s in the afternoon.
This movement corresponds to the movement of the meso trough. These echoes appear to be associated with the back side of the departed stacked trough now centered over Ontario/Quebec. Templer Previous Discussion - Synoptic Setup: A weak mesoscale ridge lies over northeast Montana with a meso trough over Idaho and western Montana. Farther west a ridge sets off the coast of British Columbia. Meanwhile, the ridge to the west will move onshore over southern British Columbia and nose out over Alberta. Friday night through Saturday: Ridge over Alberta will form a chinook and move down the front range into Montana during this time.
An upper ridge is moving into the Inland NW tonight which will lead to dry conditions except for a chance for a few light snow showers near the Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle Mountains. A warm front is still on track to bring increasing chances for light rain and snow to the region on Friday.
This regime will bring a NNW flow over the area today with winds veering NNE into Saturday with a weak coastal trough developing along the coast. Tonight warmer lows with 40s inland to 50s coast under developing onshore flow. Sat high temperatures will moderate into the lower 70s across inland NE Fl with mid/upper 60s across SE GA and along the Atlantic coast under breezy onshore flow.
A quiet weather pattern will persist through tonight and tomorrow with generally zonal H300 flow in place tonight, transitioning to more southwesterly flow tomorrow as a broad longwave trough moves into the western CONUS.
A large low pressure system is centered north-northeast of the Great Lakes which is easily discernible on water vapor satellite imagery early this morning. Given the abundant cloud cover, the blend of all the new guidance came in with a slightly cooler trend for high temperatures today, so adjusted down a degree or two across the area. And despite the high pressure at the surface, the various models indicate saturation below 850mb lasting throughout the period which means overcast skies are plausible as the moisture is stubborn to move this time of year with limited mixing depth.
Short term concern for short term is threat for light snow/freezing drizzle overnight. Current surface analysis indicates scattered light snow with some patchy freezing drizzle reported across the mn portion of the forecast area with only light snow in NW WI. This situation will continue though most of the overnight which may cause the scattered light snow/patchy freezing drizzle across most of the region. Surface and mid level ridging covers the forecast area Friday night and Saturday.
Low- level winds will usher the lowest clouds to our west, but VFR cigs should begin to develop at area TAF sites towards Friday morning. Highs will be cooler Friday ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s. The rain will become widespread Friday night and continue Saturday as a cold front slides south into the forecast area while a strong jet sets up on the east side of an upper level low centered over northwestern Mexico.
149 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 A weak cold front is slowly moving south across South Florida. This is ahead of a cold front currently over the panhandle of Florida which is forecast to move closer into Central Fl late this afternoon.
325 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 Low pressure across the Great Lakes will keep clouds and near seasonal temperatures across the area into the weekend. Mid level trough over eastern Canada will continue to transition east through tonight, with weak cold advection across the region. Southwest flow today will keep bulk of lake enhanced snow showers or sprinkles well north, with only scattered snow showers north of I-80 and in the ridges. Flow will turn slightly more to the northwest tonight, which will allow for a bit more coverage of snow showers into the ridges and I-80 corridor, but only a light accumulation if any.
1040 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016 Upper-level low finally pulling well east through the Great Lakes, but lingering confluence zone back through the Northern Plains between shearing upper trough and the main westerlies through the Central Plains. Clouds will hang tough once again, and with a bit drier and cooler airmass should be able to see lows a couple degrees cooler than last night. Weak surface ridging will settle across the area through Friday, allowing some drier air to filter in on north to northwest flow. Highs with the lesser wind and slow erosion of clouds should remain mainly in the lower to mid 30s.
Winds will remain light with some QG and orographic influence aiding in snow fall over the higher terrain. The upper low will drop into the desert SW increasing mid level moisture from the Gulf into Colorado. Snow fall over the higher foothills will be higher then the lower foothills due to the upslope not being very deep and limited moisture. Temperatures on Friday will be cooler then today with highs hovering around the freezing mark and lows in the teens. The weekend will feature moderate westerly flow aloft across the state as Colorado lies just to the north of the deformation zone on the north side of an upper low moving across Texas.
High pressure and a dry airmass is building into the area behind a cold front. Expect mostly clear skies tonight with overnight lows ranging from the mid to upper 30s across the northwest to the low to mid 40s along the coast. The short term period will begin with dry and benign weather across the entire region, as a ridge of high pressure builds into the area at the surface under quasi-zonal flow across the southeast.
1249 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 Cooler high pressure to end the work week.
A cold upper trough will remain over the eastern Great Basin through Friday.
1200 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016 For the ArkLaTex, SKC is giving way with cirrus encroaching as an approaching Westerlies trough slowly works E. Low levels are SE 10-20kt and veer to Westerly for remainder of your climb, increasing in speed through the mid levels from 55kts at the freezing level and up to 85kts near FL300.
1142 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016 Tonight through Friday: Latest satellite imagery showed a broad mid to upper level trough over the CONUS with southwest flow aloft over the ArkLaMiss. Clear skies and light winds will help temps to fall to around freezing in the northeast. Overall, lows tonight will be from the lower 30s north to the middle 30s elsewhere. For Friday, dry conditions will continue as high pressure provides another seasonably cool day.
1207 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 A cold front along the coast will continue moving offshore as high pressure builds in from the west. Dry and cooler conditions will persist through Saturday.
Increasing mid level clouds continue to be forecast from west to east during the day Friday as an upper low digs southward into Northern Mexico.
Next system, a warm front, is present on the satellite upstream in the Gulf of Alaska which will move into the region on Saturday morning.
1132 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 An upper level low north of the region will move off to the northeast Friday Night. High pressure will briefly build in for Saturday.
111 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 High pressure will prevail through the end of this week.
1235 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 A trough of low pressure across the Great Lakes will keep clouds and near seasonal temperatures across the area into the weekend. Scattered sprinkles or flurries overnight as cold advection continues under closed low moving across eastern Canada. Southwest flow will keep bulk of lake enhanced snow showers well north through friday, with only scattered snow showers north of I-80 and in the ridges. As low pressure moves east late Saturday, any precipitation should come to an end.
1235 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 High pressure will build over the Eastern U.
There also has been reports of some flurries and light drizzle/freezing drizzle occurring this afternoon. Thus, have included slight chances of light snow/flurries along with patchy freezing drizzle through the night. Saturday should also be a little warmer.
An upper ridge is moving into the Inland NW tonight which will lead to dry conditions except for a chance for a few light snow showers near the Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle Mountains. A warm front is still on track to bring increasing chances for light rain and snow to the region on Friday. Overnight the boundary layer saturates again as the lower levels cool with clearing skies which combined with weak upslope S-SW winds will lead to an increase in stratus and patchy fog for KGEG/KSFF.
1150 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016 A weak mid level ridge is currently over the region providing fair weather today and for tomorrow as well. A low pressure system will begin to rapidly develop Southwest of El Paso TX. The supporting mid and upper level troughs are also in phase and nicely stacked to allow for the development. The track of this low pressure system will create a decent temperature gradient across the CWA.
411 AM MST Fri Feb 24 2017 Broad upper trough over the area early this morning, with secondary piece of energy over UT forecast to slide eastward across CO this afternoon and evening.
The other tricky aspect of this TAF period is the fact some of the high resolution models are trying to develop light rain over Dalhart this afternoon.
Showers will develop with the passing trough, with accumulating snowfall expected to occur for elevations above 1500 feet. Thus, showers are expected to produce accumulating snowfall over the higher terrain, with 4-7 inches possible Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon for portions of Del Norte, Humboldt, northern Mendocino, and far western Trinity Counties.
527 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017 MVFR stratus deck has developed ahead of an approaching cold front this morning. Winds will begin out of the south and shift to the southwest ahead of the approaching cold front. Record highs today are as follows: AEX: 83 in 2011 BPT: 90 in 1906 (Record high for February) LCH: 84 in 1906 LFT: 81 in 2011 ARA: 80 in 2011 The stronger cold front will move through the region late this evening into Saturday morning.
Deep layer ridging over the forecast area and a dry air mass will mean fair weather and near-record temperatures for the forecast area today. A sea breeze will keep things cooler near the coast, although forecast highs may need to come up a bit there.
1015 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 High pressure ridge will be over the area today with a cold front approaching from the northwest tonight.