Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
a cold front will be entering northeast texas, southeast oklahoma, and southwest arkansas around 12/12z and showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase with the approach and passage of this boundary as in moves across the four state region. but that certainly has not dampened the low level moisture across the region (dewpoints in the 60s and 70s). A cold front still on track to impinge on the region tomorrow late afternoon/early evening.
Expect this complex of convection to continue eastward progress overnight and likely affect our western zones after midnight into early Thursday morning along an advancing cold front. A cold front will be entering northeast texas, southeast oklahoma, and southwest arkansas around 12/12z and showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase with the approach and passage of this boundary as in moves across the four state region.
a weakening and retreating western atlantic ridge extends across the sunshine state. but back in the low to mid levels. Given the close proximity of the deep layered western atlantic ridge.
Scattered thunderstorms will continue across much of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas overnight as a cold front moves southeast through the region. /ISSUED 940 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016/ Cold front is moving slowly south across the area and has moved southeast of Interstate 44 at this time.
Temperature trends remain consistent with last couple of days, with lows tonight in the mid to upper 60s and highs on Thursday ranging from the low 80s at the coast to mid and upper 80s over the interior.
At 23z, a weak cold front extended from near KSWO to KOKC to KLAW and southwest into Texas. An upper-level trough was approaching from eastern New Mexico. Additional storms will be possible overnight with the passage of the upper-level trough, mainly over southern Oklahoma and north Texas during the post-midnight hours. For this evening, a cold front, currently stretched across central and southeast Oklahoma, is expected to push a little further into southeast Oklahoma. Along and ahead of the cold front, convective iniation is expected to occur in the moister and unstable air toward and during the evening hours. After midnight, an upper wave digging across the high plains may generate a few additional thunderstorms beginning in Northwest Oklahoma. However, much of of area will be well behind the cold front, with less moisture to work with in a much lower unstable environment.
853 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016 Weather map shows typical high pressure ridging across the northern Gulf of Mexico, keeping SE flow over the region. A few SHRA/TSRA formed just NE of the area earlier this evening, but has since dissipated with the loss of daytime heating along with the weak trof axis continuing to move east.
100 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 A warm front will lift north this morning bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Better chances for stronger thunderstorms arrive mid afternoon through early evening across northeast Indiana, south-central Lower Michigan, and northwest Ohio as a cold front swings through.
Frontal boundary has lifted north as a warm front, and the earlier convection has dissipated.
Upper low continues to move across southern BC. Airmass aloft is a little warmer tomorrow and expect high temps to be about 2-5 degrees warmer.
520 PM MDT WED MAY 11 2016 17Z water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated trough in place across northern plains, with clear closed circulation over North Dakota. Of more importance to the Goodland CWA is the next short wave trough moving over the four corners around the base of large scale trough. With afternoon destabilization and period of large scale ascent ahead of this trough, expect showers and thunderstorms to develop over portions of Colorado and drift to the east/southeast across the area.
A cold front will move into the area early Thursday morning, increasing winds from the NE. /issued 238 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016/ An upper level trough is over the Northern Plains with westerly flow over the area. As the upper trough continues to move eastward overnight, a cold front will begin pushing into the area early Thursday morning providing even more lift. Temperatures will be about 10 degrees below normal tomorrow behind the cold front and the best storm chances during the afternoon will be along and south of the Lower Trans Pecos. High winds may briefly occur through Guadalupe Pass Thursday morning as the front moves through but do not anticipate the high winds to last long enough to warrant issuing any high wind product at this time.
751 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016 Temperatures will trend modestly warmer through the end of the week.
This rain was ahead of an approaching surface front and 500mb short wave trough. A weak cool front drops through for the start of a trend of cooler temperatures.
922 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016 pops were increased a bit northward across central oklahoma where thunderstorms are expected tonight along and north of a surface cold front.
736 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016 High pressure will continue ridging from off the Southeast Coast westward along the Gulf Coast through Thursday. The ridging has limited moisture in the forecast area. Moisture will increase in the area ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest.
Cooler temperatures will move in for the end of the week and hold sway for the next several days with a Canadian upper low bringing cooler northwest flow. Low temperatures in the lower to middle 60s still seems to on track. In the southern counties could see likely pops remain through the day, but the eastern counties could have time to destabilize some before the cold front arrives and thus have the highest pops there from 18z-0z and think upgrade to slight risk for this area makes sense.
Then dry and cooler with highs only in the low to mid 70s and lows Thursday night in the mid 40s to low 50s.
At the surface the high continues to settle into eastern colorado. Thursday looks like a dry day as a ridge builds in, along with warmer temperatures.
Atlantic ridge will extend from from northeast of the area toward the northern Florida peninsula overnight. Tonight and Thursday, presence of weakening ridge will continue favorable boating conditions with winds 10 knots or less and seas 2 to 3 ft near shore and around 3 feet offshore.
After 11Z, HiRes guidance begins to develop convection to our west as the cold front over the Plains shifts east towards our region. An upper-level disturbance currently over the lower Miss Valley will weaken as it shifts newd across nrn AL overnight, with this feature leading to a noticeable increase in both low-lvl stratocu and mid-lvl altostratus later this evening. Coverage of shra/tsra will increase by 18z as cold front approaches, but expected coverage only warrants vcts attm.
looks dry and warmer tomorrow. Cooler air will settle in behind the disturbance with overnight lows dropping into the mid 30s to lower 40s across the eastern plains. the upper level disturbance will continue to the east as high pressure over the Great Basin shifts eastward. Generally clear skies will combine with warmer air advecting into the region to produce a pleasant day across Colorado. Highs will top out in the lower 70s across the plains.
Update: the going forecast is in excellent shape depicting retreating showers and sky cover as the upper low that brought record setting rainfall to northeast Montana exits into Manitoba. OVER THE COURSE OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD, THE FLOW ALOFT CHANGES FROM A MULTI-MODEL LOW PRESSURE PATTERN TO A WELL- ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
547 PM MDT WED MAY 11 2016 This morning's mid level hand analysis showed a fairly deep trough swinging across the northern plains with cooler air being re-enforced across the Rockies and Inter-mountain West. Normally the coldest air will be found with this high but drier air invading from the Southwest will help temperatures in the 4 Corners region drop steadily after sunset. Expect freezing temperatures to affect portions of Montezuma County where sensitive vegetation could temporarily be at risk so have hoisted a freeze warning above 5500 feet. A warmer and drier weather pattern will then be setting up to end the week with an upper ridge building across the west and translating toward the Rockies. Lows will also be moderating Thursday night with freezing temperatures in the lower elevations not a concern.
940 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016 Cold front is moving slowly south across the area and has moved southeast of Interstate 44 at this time.
On Thursday the first in the series of cold fronts will cross the state. Cooler temps move in behind the front, with lows Thursday Night dropping below normal as 850mb temps are progged to drop some 10C between.
452 PM PDT WED MAY 11 2016 High pressure will keep skies generally clear and temperature above average through the rest of the week.
744 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016 A stalled frontal boundary will weaken over North Carolina tonight, as a cold front approaches from the west.
Upper ridge will continue to strengthen through Thursday resulting in additional warming, along with mostly clear skies and light winds.
1025 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016 Temperatures will trend modestly warmer through the end of the week.
849 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016 High pressure will provide one more day of nice weather on Thursday, before a storm system sliding out of the Great Lakes spreads showers and cool temperatures across our region.
Scattered to broken mid clouds this evening will give way to increasing thunderstorm chances across much of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas as a cold front moves through the region. /ISSUED 328 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016/ Surface cold front stretches from just east of Ponca City to near Altus this afternoon and the boundary will make slow progress southeast through tonight. Front will continue to push south of the area Thursday with thunderstorm chances tapering off from north to south and temps a few degrees cooler.
Upper low over North Dakota will track north into Canada as more energy dives south on the back side of the departing trof. helping to establish a broad mid level trof over the Northern Plains and Great Lakes region by 72 hours.
/Issued 315 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016/ The afternoon regional surface analysis shows the ridge axis has shifted ever so slightly to the south with residual dry air marked by dewpoints in the upper 50s continuing to reside over central Georgia.
1027 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016 High pressure will continue ridging from off the Southeast Coast westward along the Gulf Coast through Thursday. The ridging has limited moisture in the forecast area. Moisture will increase in the area ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest.
The area of low pressure that is bringing this rain will slowly move across MN tonight and into the northern Great Lakes by thursday evening. 30 with the higher amounts in nw WI. The rain will taper off to showers Thursday morning as the low moves east but skies are expected to remain mostly cloudy with lingering stratus much of Thursday.
1032 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016 A stalled frontal boundary will weaken over North Carolina tonight, as a cold front approaches from the west.
Upper trof approaches western Montana Thursday with an associated cold front moving across the area during the afternoon.
High pressure will continue over the region with above normal temperatures.
In addition the low level flow had veered resulting in only weak low level convergence.
Increased cloud cover and cooler air mass will lead to afternoon highs in the 70s and 80s. A cold front that will move through much of the area Thursday, then stall somewhere across our southern counties Thursday night, aiding in continued shower and thunderstorm development.
Cooler temperatures will move in for the end of the week and hold sway for the next several days with a Canadian upper low bringing cooler northwest flow. In the southern counties could see likely pops remain through the day, but the eastern counties could have time to destabilize some before the cold front arrives and thus have the highest pops there from 18z-0z and think upgrade to slight risk for this area makes sense.
802 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016 THE COMBINATION OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA overnight. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND BEHIND THIS FRONT.
Northwest flow aloft continues, though with warmer temperatures as 500 mb heights rise about 60 meters from today until tomorrow.
Lows overnight range from upper 50s to near 60F over the IL river valley to the low to mid 60s in eastern IL from I-55 east. On Thursday the first in the series of cold fronts will cross the state. Cooler temps move in behind the front, with lows Thursday Night dropping below normal as 850mb temps are progged to drop some 10C between.
Any convection is expected to be over the higher terrain in northeast Mexico. Southeast winds will push the low level moisture axis northwest of the area tonight with drier air over the northwest Gulf of Mexico moving inland. Short wave trough moving through the southern plains Thursday and into the southern Mississippi River valley will send a weak frontal boundary into central Texas Thursday afternoon.
1025 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016 Clouds will increase overnight as a cold front approaches Arkansas from the northwest.
1014 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016 The combination of an approaching upper level disturbance and a warm front lifting back northward tonight will result in a chance of showers and thunderstorms across the area overnight. The cold front associated with this system will provide a continued chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon, especially along and east of the Interstate 69 corridor.
There could be a small chance of a snow shower along the northern shore of Lake Superior as winds turn to the southwest as the high pressure moves off to the east.
Hyper intense low level cold advection ongoing wwd over IL/WI as tremendous 1040+ mb arctic ridge shifts east with 24 hour temp drops of 25 to 35 degrees common. Highres placement of ridge axis late tonight/Mon morning should foster clearing and strongly favors decoupling especially considering existing snowpack in place and of which will allow sfc temps to crater. Only notable change was to stripe Berrien county warmer as lake cloud plume persists there overnight. Otherwsie arctic ridge will continue ewd as weak return flow develops in the aftn. Arctic ridge will retreat to off the atlantic coast by Tue as upstream CONUS heights flatten to westerly ahead of transient nrn stream wave train shifting through srn Canada. Depth of amplifying upper trough and subsequent newd ejection deepening sfc cyclone thereafter in certain flux given gamut of solutions since yda.
1152 AM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 A cold front moves through the region today. High pressure returns for the early to the mid week.
Coldest readings have been in the lower Arkansas Valley, with minus 19f at Pueblo and minus 23f at Lamar so far this morning. Warmer this week, then another chance of snow for Christmas?.
1100 AM MST Sun Dec 18 2016 Broad upper troughing exists across the forecast area through the period.
Arctic high pressure ridge extended from MN to western TX. Today: Arctic high pressure will settle over the cwa with clear skies and bitterly cold temperatures.
230 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 Strong high pressure will build across the region tonight into Monday with a brief return to cold temperatures.
128 PM PST Sun Dec 18 2016 Freezing temperatures in the Valley for the first part of this week with dry conditions. Drier air tonight will lead to more widespread freezing temperatures by Monday morning throughout the valley. Temperatures will rapidly cool off during the evening hours with some of the outlying locations reaching the freezing mark by 10 or 11 pm this evening.
444 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 The cold front will cross the region late this afternoon.
Cirrus and altocu will gradually erode through the day, as Arctic high pressure settles in to the region. Highs will be in the 20s to low 30s statewide, with the northern half of the state struggling to make the freezing mark today if at all. The effects of arctic high pressure will linger through Monday night.
As the high shifts eastward, southerly winds will begin to bring warmer air into the region beginning Monday afternoon when high temperatures rise into the teens and lower 20s.
High pressure will be building in from the west tonight. Across east central KY where clouds should hang on through the night, temperatures will drop only into the low 20s with wind chill values in the teens. Highs tomorrow will again be quite cold ranging from the mid 20s in southern IN to the low 30s in east central KY.
So far this afternoon highs have remained below freezing across most of the forecast area, ranging from the mid 20s northwest to the mid 30s southeast. With northerly winds expected to decrease to 5 to 10 mph tonight, temperatures should reach the upper single digits in some spots west and northwest of the Metroplex to the lower 20s across the southeast.
A strong cold front has moved half way through Central Alabama this morning. The main challenge today will be the development or lack thereof of any sleet or freezing rain northwest. With all this said, there appears to be a few hour window this morning where rain may become mixed with or change to freezing rain or sleet for the northwest counties. The cold front just cleared KEUF this past hour and is now south of all terminals.
218 PM CST Sun Dec 18 2016 Increasing mid level cloudiness in noted in the afternoon regional satellite image across the Dakotas, which is the initial surge of a much warmer air mass. Some blowing snow is likely in west central/southwest Minnesota, especially along the Buffalo Ridge where gusty winds will begin, and last through tomorrow. Tomorrow afternoon temperatures will be in the upper 20s east of the Buffalo Ridge with low to mid 20s elsewhere.
1233 PM CST Sun Dec 18 2016 Increasing mid level cloudiness in noted in the afternoon regional satellite image across the Dakotas, which is the initial surge of a much warmer air mass. Some blowing snow is likely in west central/southwest Minnesota, especially along the Buffalo Ridge where gusty winds will begin, and last through tomorrow. Tomorrow afternoon temperatures will be in the upper 20s east of the Buffalo Ridge with low to mid 20s elsewhere.
Upper ridging across the western third of the CONUS is bringing warmer temperatures into those regions and soon into the northern plains. Wind chills in areas where temps have remained well below freezing remain in warning criteria so will keep headlines out for now. The coldest highs will be over central SD where it will take longer for the warmer air to advect in. Continued warm air advection will result in highs near or above freezing Monday. This will be the first time most of the CWA has seen above freezing temps in almost two weeks.
Temperatures will begin to rebound on Monday as the high pressure system shifts to the east allowing a southerly low level flow to return.
With temps well below freezing also expected, any fog that forms could result in some light icing potential too.
Clouds continue to increase over the west where warmer air mass is trying to work into the area. So mixing working well across the higher elevations of the southwest. Highs will rise into the teens above zero west of the missouri river but remain cooler.
Should also be a fair amount of sunshine to start the day, which will actually inhibit warming some given the high albedo of the fresh snow. This again will be most pronounced in downslope areas east of the Buffalo Ridge. The stronger southwest winds will continue along and east of the Ridge tonight as well, and with the loose fresh snow across the region, the enhanced winds could result in some blowing and more certainly drifting snow. While temperatures will still be below normal on Monday, readings will a good 20 degrees warmer than recent days with highs climbing into the 20s to lower 30s in a southwesterly low level flow.
Most locations east of the mountains will be able to warm to above freezing based on thicknesses with our cooler western valleys approaching freezing. Will extend the high wind warning through the night as low and mid level gradients progged to remain strong with our wind models indicating strong winds to continue over our wind prone locations.
258 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 Tight temperature gradient present across the area today as the cold front settles over the CWA. Temperatures will rebound into the 40s across the north, but as the front continues to sag southward into south GA by tomorrow afternoon, the high temp will occur early with decreasing temps through the day.
347 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 High pressure builds into the area and remains through the first half of the week.
304 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 Cooler air continues to slowly filter in across eastern Kentucky with the cold front exiting well off to our southeast now. This will only allow highs to get back into the low to mid 30s for highs. As the high pressure ridge settles overhead for Monday night, skies will clear and give way to a cold night with lows back into the teens.
Upper level trough over the Northern Plains will shift east today. Warmer air will continue to move into the area through Mon then level off. Much warmer air will move into the area after today.
916 AM PST Sun Dec 18 2016 Freezing temperatures in the Valley for the first part of this week with dry conditions. Drier air and light winds tonight will lead to more widespread freezing temperatures by Monday morning throughout the valley.
240 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 Strong high pressure will build across the region tonight into Monday with a brief return to cold temperatures.
This is also the lowest temperature recorded at Lubbock since it dropped to 7 degrees on February 6th of 2014. Even with near full insolation highs will remain below freezing in the middle to upper 20s for most spots. Considerable mid and upper-level cloud cover is still expected to pass across the area on Monday ahead of a elongated, positively-tiled trough moving across the plains.
143 PM MST Sun Dec 18 2016 Broad upper troughing exists across the forecast area through the period. Moderating temperatures are expected through the work week ahead of a cooler weekend.
Coldest wind chills expected to be Sunday night into Monday morning due to a cold start followed with increasing southwest winds ahead of a northern plains trough.
A southwesterly flow aloft will slow an approaching cold front as it reaches the panhandle overnight. Models are now consistently showing a more zonal flow developing aloft late monday that will bridge the diffuse front across the state bringing in slightly cooler and drier conditions.
303 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 High pressure over the central plains will spread a ridge across ohio into pennsylvania tonight.
Today through Noon Monday: Northwest flow with the weak ridge upstream will lead to dry and variably cloudy conditions through these periods. Strong Downslope winds and WAA at the surface will also lend to warming condition through mid day Monday with Highs possibly above freezing for areas of the Missouri Breaks. the winds themselves may be able to generate blowing snow from recent snowpack before freezing temperatures is reached around noon and generate some visibility drops and drifting. One the temps break freezing surface snow will likely begin to crust which should slowly stop blowing snow.
306 PM CST Sun Dec 18 2016 Mid level trough will shift east with zonal flow setting up by the end of the short term period.
1113 AM CST Sun Dec 18 2016 Most of Minnesota is very near or colder than -20F early this morning and western WI is only a few degrees warmer.
Monday will start out cold but respond nicely to winds becoming southerely as the high shifts east.
407 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 Light snow falling along a lake enhanced band will continue to move slowly southeast as high pressure builds over the region.