Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Another quiet and cold night is in store for the Tennessee Valley, as high pressure results in sustaining cool temperatures and weaker gradient winds. However, it appears as if dewpoints may not quite as low as previously thought -- and for that reason it may be a couple of degrees "warmer". Thus, have held off on a Freeze Watch for Saturday night, given the more sporatic nature of the subfreezing temperatures and it being more borderline. Similar conditions expected on Sunday with another ridge of high pressure moving into the region from the west.
If the cloud cover is not too thick then a few locations in south central SD down the Missouri River towards Sioux City could creep into the lower 50s. Winds will turn from light south to light west through the night so looks like another scenario to lean on the warmer side of guidance as any radiational cooling looks difficult to come by. This means a lot of lows in the lower 30s with a few upper 20s mixed in.
A cold front is currently moving into the I-10 corridor, and winds will turn out of the north as the front passes, with winds speeds behind the front around 6-10 KT. A weak cold front will move across the area this evening and overnight. /issued 254 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2019/ (Tonight and Saturday) Another cold front will push across West Central Texas tonight. lows tonight will be in the 30s, and highs on Saturday will be much cooler than usual early November highs.
/Issued 809 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2019/ A weak cold front is just entering Osage county at the time of this writing. The cold front will clear the area by early tomorrow morning. This cold front will also bring slightly cooler temperatures Saturday than what was seen today across the area, but still not a bad day overall.
244 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2019 06Z surface data has a cold front from eastern Lake Superior into southwest Missouri. Dew points were in 20s ahead of the cold front and across the Plains with 30s from the Great Lakes into the lower Mississippi Valley. Temperatures will be marginally warmer but still well below normal for early November.
319 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019 With high pressure across the area, the sky is clear at this time across central KY and south-central IN with a calm or near calm wind. With temps around or just below 32 F, there could be a little freezing fog at times.
A weak cold front will still try to nudge its way into western and northwestern OK Mon morning but CAA appears minimal.
522 AM MDT Sat Nov 2 2019 Current surface map places high across the central plains with lee side trof over Montana into Wyoming. located between upper trof from Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes and upper ridge over the eastern Pacific.
A crossing cold front will provide a light dusting of snow north of Interstate 80 tonight. High pressure and drier weather return Sunday. This is mainly due to the expected generally unfavorable W to perhaps briefly WNW flow in the low levels. Similarly, some scattered showers are also possible along the higher ridges of PA/MD/WV, but this activity will also be limited by less-than-ideal wind direction. Also, low-level ridging will become established again fairly rapidly behind the front, helping to cut off any non lake-related precipitation. Another cool afternoon is figured, with far northern and ridge locations possibly not reaching 40 during the day.
Frontal boundary loses definition Tue PM as low-level thermal ridge amplifies across the wrn areas signaling warmer afternoon temps there, e of thermal ridge low-level mstr will be on the increase. Meanwhile a slow moving upper low will have moved into nrn Baja-sw AZ area. By Wed AM upper low will start to move ewd as 70kt 3h jet develops just s of the low. Model consensus is that highest PoPS will be across the nrn CWFA just ahead/e of the mid/upper level shrtwv trof. Into Wed night-Thur AM a cold front will move s in wake of mid/upper level shrtwv trof which will gradually shift SHRA/TSRA e and s. Definitely turning cooler Thur, probably 15-20 degrees cooler wrt high temps.
Although temperatures continue to rise above freezing this morning, the thick fog will linger through mid-morning, potentially until 11 AM to noon in Northeast AL. Otherwise, a cold front continues to approach the region from the west today, and is expected to cross the TN Valley around noon. Deep-layer northwest flow will remain established across the region tonight, providing dry conditions and another favorable night for radiational cooling, as a low-level ridge builds northeastward into the TN Valley from the southern Plains. Mid-tropospheric flow will back quickly to the west-southwest Sunday afternoon, in response to an upstream trough digging southeastward across the Canadian Rockies and into the northern Plains.
As the high moves off to the east, winds will change from the current light northwest to mainly southerly at somewhat higher speeds. A weak cold front will still try to nudge its way into western and northwestern OK Mon morning but CAA appears minimal.
635 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2019 Deep upper level troughing overhead was producing scattered mostly light rain and snow showers across western Wisconsin early this morning. This trough will begin to shift off to the east by this afternoon. This activity will exit our eastern counties by mid to late afternoon as the trough departs. Dry weather is expected tonight as ridging at the surface settles over the Upper Mississippi Valley, but it will quickly slide off to the east by daybreak Sunday. Lows tonight will range from the lower 20s to around 30.
Another wave with a cold front on Sunday will keep the chances for light rain and snow going across the region.
/Issued 735 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019/ A broad upper trough will prevail over the southeast through tonight with the flow becoming more zonal on Sunday. but temperatures at or below freezing look borderline for north GA. A small area in the far northeast looks most likely for freezing. There is the possibility of some isolated spots of freezing fog across the far north this morning.
Temps topping out in the low 30s across NW MN and near 40 in east central ND. Surface winds will turn westerly by noontime, and temperatures should rise to the upper 30s to around 40 with some warmer areas possible where breaks in sky cover persist long enough for additional heating.
This circulation was embedded in a large long wave trough across the northern tier of the nation.
/issued 412 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2019/ (Today and Tonight) Water vapor satellite imagery shows zonal flow aloft over Texas, with a trough over the Great Lakes region and a cut-off low off the coast of Southern California. At the surface, a cold front has moved through much of the region as of 1 am, and is currently moving south over the I-10 corridor. Winds behind the front are northerly around 10 mph, and temperatures behind the front (low 40s to low 50s) are actually warmer than ahead of it (mid 30s to low 40s).
No big changes forecast through the upcoming work week with some signs of the ridge weakening by Veterans Day weekend. A few more hours of light winds should allow for continued cooling of temps to around freezing for the North Bay Valleys as well as the interior Monterey/San Benito region. Some hints of the ridge weakening by Veterans Day weekend as a weak trough tries to pass through far NorCal. SFO Bridge Approach. Generally light to locally breezy north to northwesterly winds will continue through the weekend as high pressure remains over the eastern Pacific.
407 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2019 A weak cold front extending across southwest IL and southeast MO, just southeast of STL will continue moving southeastward. With low level cold air advection behind the cold front the highs will be cooler today, and about 10 degrees below normal. Warmer highs are expected on Sunday due to low level warm air advection as the surface winds back around to a southwest direction.
06Z surface data has a cold front from eastern Lake Superior into southwest Missouri. Dew points were in 20s ahead of the cold front and across the Plains with 30s from the Great Lakes into the lower Mississippi Valley. Temperatures will be marginally warmer but still well below normal for early November.
A weak upper-level trough aloft will allow the marine layer to slowly build near the Coast this weekend.
No big changes forecast through the upcoming work week with some signs of the ridge weakening by Veterans Day weekend. A few more hours of light winds should allow for continued cooling of temps to around freezing for the North Bay Valleys as well as the interior Monterey/San Benito region. Some hints of the ridge weakening by Veterans Day weekend as a weak trough tries to pass through far NorCal.
Upper level ridge will remain in place along the West Coast through the period, keeping Colorado on the western edge of stronger nw flow diving into the upper Midwest.
SCT-BKN high clouds will continue today as northerly winds develop behind a cold front. High temperatures are forecast to reach the low to mid 60s. Dry weather conditions are expected for Sunday with highs reaching the mid to upper 60s across the Hill Country to the low 70s across the Rio Grande and coastal plains areas.
735 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019 A broad upper trough will prevail over the southeast through tonight with the flow becoming more zonal on Sunday. but temperatures at or below freezing look borderline for north GA. A small area in the far northeast looks most likely for freezing. There is the possibility of some isolated spots of freezing fog across the far north this morning.
925 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019 The cold front that successfully made its way through West Central Florida remains stationary across SW Florida this morning. North of Tampa Bay, temperatures are in the low 60s. Meanwhile, in portions of the panhandle, southern Georgia, and southern Alabama, temperatures are in the low 40s. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, with cooler temperatures overnight tonight, and comfortable fall-like conditions extending through the remainder of the weekend.
A dry reinforcing cold front will advance across the forecast area today. Temperatures will climb only into the lower to mid 60s today. High pressure will settle over the area for tonight and Sunday.
A weak cold front was just entering far west/northwest portions PAH forecast area at 08z, and will move just east of our area by around 12z. High pressure will slide just south of our region tonight then well east of our area on Sunday. A return of southerly winds will help temperatures rebound about 5 degrees warmer for Sunday.
Mid to upper level high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern today, resulting in another cool, clear morning leading into a beautiful fall day across Northwestern California. A solid mid to upper level ridge has continued to develop over the NE Pacific, along with a local upper level high pressure center residing directly overhead. Thus the pattern of pleasant & benign weather should continue, featuring mostly sunny skies and light winds across the area, with temperatures generally climbing into the 70s inland and remaining in the low to mid 60s along the coast. High pressure remains in place aloft bringing mainly light winds and low seas to the area.
Currently at 08Z, a broad upper trough remains in control from the northeastern CONUS through the Great Lakes region with the southern extent of the trough axis now advancing itno the Mid MS Valley region. The westward extent of the broader longwave trough is observed to be situated over the Pacific northwest / northern Rockies regions. Surface frontal boundaries -- weak as they are -- are trailing the upper trough and decaying and becoming more diffuse over the Mid MS Valley region into portions of the southern central Plains region. Otherwise, H85 temps warm slightly with low level WAA into the afternoon as southern Plains surface ridging expands into the region backing winds to a more southwesterly component into the afternoon.
/issued 416 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019/ A cold front is currently situated in south Florida helping to bring us some more seasonable temperatures. As we go throughout the day we will continue to have partly to mostly cloudy skies with temperatures still slightly above average with highs in the low to mid 80's. By Sunday the cold front will push farther south which will allow the temperature and humidity to drop a little more allowing for a great days.
614 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2019 A weak cold front extending across southwest IL and southeast MO, just southeast of STL will continue moving southeastward. With low level cold air advection behind the cold front the highs will be cooler today, and about 10 degrees below normal. Warmer highs are expected on Sunday due to low level warm air advection as the surface winds back around to a southwest direction.
Saturday will be yet another cooler than normal day, with possible fog and low clouds through early morning in the Flathead Valley and some snow showers along the Continental Divide.
N/NW winds of 10 to 15 knots are expected this afternoon in the wake of a cold frontal passage. A few sparse clouds are streaming across northern AR associated with cold front progged to move across the state during the morning hours. Temperatures this morning will range from the upper 20s in protected valley locations to near 40 degrees across the higher elevation of the Ozarks. Winds will relax towards sunset as high pressure settles in overtop the state. Temperatures tonight will range from just below freezing to the mid 30s across southeast AR.
Early this morning, a dry surface cold front had already pushed through all but the far southeastern portion of the CWA with winds shifting to the northwest and bringing a slightly cooler airmass behind it.
412 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2019 (Today and Tonight) Water vapor satellite imagery shows zonal flow aloft over Texas, with a trough over the Great Lakes region and a cut-off low off the coast of Southern California. At the surface, a cold front has moved through much of the region as of 1 am, and is currently moving south over the I-10 corridor. Winds behind the front are northerly around 10 mph, and temperatures behind the front (low 40s to low 50s) are actually warmer than ahead of it (mid 30s to low 40s).
With high pressure across the area, the sky is clear at this time across central KY and south-central IN with a calm or near calm wind. With temps around or just below 32 F, there could be a little freezing fog at times.
Cool temperatures are being observed across interior NorCal this morning, though temperatures are just slightly warmer than this time yesterday. Morning low temperatures are expected to once again fall below normal with the Valley and foothills ranging from the high 30s to low 40s and the mountains in the low 20s to low 40s.
This trend will continue to finish off the weekend as the upper trough over the Midwest continues eastward, leaving zonal flow aloft during the day Sunday.
1145 AM MDT Sat Nov 2 2019 Since winds have decreased somewhat in the wind prone locations of southeast Wyoming, we have cancelled the High Wind Warning.
Unseasonably cold air will be the main feature; the entire time will still be below early Nov averages, with reinforcements coming after the mid week snow chance, as Canadian high pressure intrudes.
Southerly winds will return tonight, with even warmer temperatures on Sunday.
Ridge of high pressure will keep most of the region dry.
248 PM CDT Sat Nov 2 2019 (Tonight and Sunday) Clearing skies and warmer temperatures are expected for this morning and also for this afternoon. For tonight, expect low temperatures to be a touch warmer than this morning in the low to mid 50s.
334 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019 Water vapor imagery and analysis shows a mid and upper level ridge remains in place over the Gulf of Mexico and extends east to Florida and the Bahamas. In the low level, there is an inverted trough centered over the eastern Florida Straits and extends southward over Cuba. Boundaries emanating from the weak trough has disturbed the ability for cloud line develop. Dry air will remain in the mid levels due to the lingering influences of the mid level subtropical ridge.
A crossing cold front will provide a light dusting of snow north of Interstate 80 tonight. High pressure and drier weather return Sunday. A nearly cloud-free sky will be short-lived as GOES imagery shows cloud cover encroaching the CWA as a deep trough lifts across the Ohio Valley. The associated cold front will cross the CWA later today. Unfavorable W/WNW flow in the low-levels will keep any robust lake convection north of the majority of the CWA. Similarly, some scattered showers are also possible along the higher ridges of PA/MD/WV, but this activity will also be limited by less- than-ideal wind direction. Low-level ridging will become established again fairly rapidly behind the front, helping to cut off any non lake-related precipitation. Another cool afternoon is figured, with far northern and ridge locations possibly not reaching 40 during the day.
We will see a warming trend with s-sw winds developing as the ridge shifts east. We may see some readings touching the low 60s Sunday afternoon.
/Tonight through Sunday Night/ Temperatures beginning to moderate, but still remain below seasonal norms, as high pressure gradually slides east of MS river overnight and south winds increasing to around 10 mph across ne TX by Sunday aftn.
Decided to keep any mention of freezing rain out of the forecast at this time based on very little confidence in this scenario.
The exception will be along the NE FL coast where the northerly winds will bring warmer air over the Atlantic waters. For Sunday, high pressure will build from the northwest to the north, with the resultant flow changing from north to northeast. Models are hinting at a weak inverted trough developing along the coast late in the morning and move inland through the afternoon. The combination of this trough and onshore flow will lead to increasing cloud coverage through the day, but airmass expected to be too dry to support precipitation. A broad range in high temperatures is expected for Sunday, with mid to upper 60s in SE GA, to the low to mid 70s across NE FL.
Light mild west winds have kept temperatures mainly in the 40s, with warmer readings over south central SD. An upper-level wave moves through the Northern Plains/International Border, dropping its associated cold front over the region on Sunday. Temperatures will remain slightly cooler than normal, with highs generally in the 40s.
Currently at 08Z, a broad upper trough remains in control from the northeastern CONUS through the Great Lakes region with the southern extent of the trough axis now advancing into the Mid MS Valley region. The westward extent of the broader longwave trough is observed to be situated over the Pacific northwest / northern Rockies regions. Surface frontal boundaries -- weak as they are -- are trailing the upper trough and decaying and becoming more diffuse over the Mid MS Valley region into portions of the southern central Plains region. Otherwise, H85 temps warm slightly with low level WAA into the afternoon as southern Plains surface ridging expands into the region backing winds to a more southwesterly component into the afternoon.
A reinforcing cold front will come through during the afternoon. High pressure will build in behind the front and we will need to watch for sub-freezing temperatures again tonight. With still some uncertainty on how far south the freezing temperatures will make it in 24 hours, opted for a freeze watch for now.
With the broad trough moving across the Midwest this morning, winds will be on the increase out of the northwest by late morning. Additional CAA will prevent a big warm up this afternoon, but highs in the low to mid 50s look likely.
Latest surface analysis places a 1030 mb high pressure center over Oklahoma at this hour. This high is expected to push into the Mid-South tonight and allow optimum radiational cooling to occur again. Lows will bottom out in the low to mid 30s areawide, with frost and a light freeze possible for portions of west Tennessee and northeast Mississippi.
240 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019 Current surface analysis features a weak and dry cold front currently crossing central Kentucky as of 1830Z. Despite the clear skies and west southwest winds this afternoon, high temps will only go a few more degrees this afternoon to reach a high in the lower 50s. Heading into the day for Sunday, reinforcing cold air moving behind the weak cold front overnight will keep high temperatures for Sunday into the lower 50s. The colder air mass in place may even keep some locations from getting out of the 40s but due to clear skies and light winds, enough heating will be available for highs in the lower 50s. The upper level flow will transition from a broad trough to more zonal flow into the middle of the week.
Zonal flow prevails aloft through the near term as high pressure dominates at the surface.
Really hard to find a discernible cold front at this point, and models indicate that temps in most areas will stay just above freezing.
1120 AM MDT Sat Nov 2 2019 Since winds have decreased somewhat in the wind prone locations of southeast Wyoming, we have cancelled the High Wind Warning.
Northerly winds will decrease inland at sunset and we will have another cold night across the area, but above freezing, even across the far north. This will make tomorrow night's lows about five to 10 degrees warmer than tonight.
151 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019 An East Coast trough is centered over Hudson Bay and extending southward almost to Florida will allow a weak front to dip southward and clear the area, or at least come close on Sunday.
Highs on Sunday will be a few degrees warmer than this afternoon with southerly surface flow.
The main forecast challenge in the near term is how inversions will behave in the high snow covered valleys like the Gunnison and Yampa, and the efficiency of the afternoon mixing. Have decreased the low temperatures by a few degrees from the consensus across those valleys and a few other locations. Also increased the highs today and tomorrow by a few degrees given the trends as this air mass retreats.
1112 AM MDT Sat Nov 2 2019 Current surface map places high across the central plains with lee side trof over Montana into Wyoming. located between upper trof from Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes and upper ridge over the eastern Pacific.
300 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019 After a very weak cold front moved through the region this morning, the area remains under the axis of an upper trough in an area of increasing surface pressure. Radiative cooling will allow temperatures to drop below freezing by daybreak. Highs are expected in the low to mid 50s. Under fairly flat flow in the base of a broad upper trough we will keep our temperatures on the cool side during this period.
247 PM MDT Sat Nov 2 2019 Latest surface map has a trof extending from the western Dakotas into the Nebraska Panhandle. Aloft, northwest flow continues across the Northern Plains, as an upper trof extends from Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes and an upper ridge is centered over the eastern Pacific. Rain/snow showers will linger through the day Sunday as a cold front backs through the forecast area during the late afternoon.
however no freezing temperatures are forecast for tonight.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer today. High pressure at the surface and warmer air aloft resulted in a near surface-based inversion in the lower valleys, including the Treasure Valley and Western Magic Valley.
1226 PM CDT Sat Nov 2 2019 A weak cold front extending across southwest IL and southeast MO, just southeast of STL will continue moving southeastward. With low level cold air advection behind the cold front the highs will be cooler today, and about 10 degrees below normal. Warmer highs are expected on Sunday due to low level warm air advection as the surface winds back around to a southwest direction.
High pressure over the west coast will continue dry weather with warm above normal days and cool nights.