Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOME TODAY AND THE MAIN AREA OF MOISTURE PUSHES SOMEWHAT FURTHER NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S EACH DAY ACROSS THE METRO AREAS WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
329 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT IN THE LOWER AND MID-LEVEL LEVELS DRIVING A FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE AND A FAVORABLE PLACEMENT OF THE CWA IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET STREAK WILL LEAD TO A SHOWERY LATE EVENING PERIOD ACROSS THE CWA. FRIES FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN BEHIND. RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD INITIALLY HANG UP IN THE RIDGES OF PA/MD/WV TUESDAY AND GENERATE ADDITIONAL DIURNAL RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND FOCUS NUMEROUS SHOWERS. WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST TODAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RADAR INDICATING SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA TROUGH. CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST/WEST FLORIDA THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH. AS TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS. 75 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WEST. WARMER HIGHS SHOULD OCCUR TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT.
348 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015 CHALLENGES INCLUDE DEGREE OF DRYNESS AND WIND STRENGTH TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
500 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015 TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IT MIGHT EVEN FEEL NICER THAN YESTERDAY DESPITE BEING 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER. BUT THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP LOWS ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. STILL LOOKING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF BREEZY CONDITIONS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA TIGHTENS UP BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAPED THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOWER SIDE DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH HOW THINGS EVOLVE.
SPOTTY SHOWERS STARTING TO DEVELOP IN THE MOISTENING SE-S LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING UPPER MIDWEST/CENTRAL PLAINS COLD FRONT. AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTING TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS.
245 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S. ITS MOTION WILL BE HELD UP BY A RATHER POTENT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THE WEATHER WILL DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES ALLOWING SUBSIDENCE TO TAKE PLACE IN THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER 70S MONDAY DUE TO WARM ADVECTION. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH A TROF OVER THE WEST AND A RIDGE OVER THE EAST AT MID WEEK.
316 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015 WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION TODAY ON A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
102 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015 SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED AND HAVE MOVED THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION TAKES PLACE LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. MAIN AREA OF RAIN IS BACK ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER FEEL THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY NORTH TO COMBINE WITH THE FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT TO GENERATE A BAND OF RAIN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FOR TEMPERATURES WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN MOS WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUDS MOVING IN.
200 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT IN THE LOWER AND MID-LEVEL LEVELS DRIVING A FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE AND A FAVORABLE PLACEMENT OF THE CWA IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET STREAK WILL LEAD TO A SHOWERY LATE EVENING PERIOD ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE IS EVENTUALLY PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY RETURNING DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION.
131 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER WILL FOLLOW AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. INCREASED THE HIGHS A LITTLE ALSO. FORECAST QUESTION OF THE DAY IS THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. AFTER THAT MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
328 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015 High pressure will be quick to build in behind this morning's thunderstorm complex with quick clearing from north to south, although there could be a rather thick shield of cirrus coming off a closed upper low over the TX high plains.
537 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. AND LIKEWISE DID VERY LITTLE TO MOISTEN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT IN THE LOWER AND MID-LEVEL LEVELS DRIVING A FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE AND A FAVORABLE PLACEMENT OF THE CWA IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET STREAK WILL LEAD TO A SHOWERY LATE EVENING PERIOD ACROSS THE CWA. FRIES FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN BEHIND. RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD INITIALLY HANG UP IN THE RIDGES OF PA/MD/WV TUESDAY AND GENERATE ADDITIONAL DIURNAL RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY WITH A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW BECOMING ONSHORE WITH THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SLIGHTLY DRIER MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN OUR AREA.
443 AM MDT MON APR 13 2015 SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CIRRUS SHIELD IS THINNING AS IT SHEARS OFF THE UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST EAST OF EL PASO. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS A LITTLE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE VALUES.
A chilly start this morning will give way to pleasant conditions under a ridge of high pressure. An upper level trough and strong cold front are still expected to move through the region beginning late tonight into Tuesday morning. Widespread precipitation is expected to develop with and behind the cold front, with the heaviest amounts being depicted across north central Idaho into far northwest Montana. As the cold front pushes through Tuesday morning, snow levels will crash to around 3000 feet, causing a rapid change to snow for both mountain passes and even into many valley locations.
325 AM PDT MON APR 13 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY AND THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY WILL BRING STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WITH COOLING.
Moisture transport was interacting with a cold front and associated upper disturbance, forcing this band of rain to continue spreading across the Ozarks. Surface winds will switch to the north bringing cooler air to the Ozarks. A passing cold front will then bring a band of showers and thunderstorms through the area from late tonight into Monday morning.
OVERALL NOT A LOT OF CHANGE WITH THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN FOR THIS WEEK EVEN AS ONE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NE TODAY. RAIN CHCS EXPECTED TO PEAK THUR/FRI WITH THE SLOW APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE HINTING THAT WE COULD SEE A BIT OF CLEARING/END OF POPS (!!!!) BY SUN AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY EJ- ECTS OUT TO THE NE AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME DURING THE DAY AND JUST PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BECOMING SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON JUST PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WAVE OF CONVECTION AROUND THIS UPPER LOW TO THE WEST CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND MID WEEK MAY BE A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM RAIN.
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL PROVIDE WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. TUESDAY WILL BE A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT STORY AS A POWERFUL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE VALLEY FLOORS TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION BELOW 3500 FEET MSL AS GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.
A WELL ALIGNED COLD CORE MIDDLE AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR EL PASO TEXAS IS MOVING LITTLE. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. 61 INCHES AND UNSTABLE IN THE LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE WITH A VEERING GENTLE TO MODERATE FLOW BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FROM ABOUT 875 UP TO 600 MB. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
437 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL RETURN TO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT DRY.
WITH ONE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION TODAY ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
BUT MAIN FOCUS WILL LIKELY BE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA TODAY WHERE BETTER FORCING FROM FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW RESIDE. WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 80S.
356 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015 (Today and Tonight) An upper level low is currently located across far West Texas and is forecast to move east northeast across the South Plains late today and overnight. At the same time, a cold front will move into the Big Country this morning. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop along and behind the aforementioned cold front mainly this afternoon and overnight. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s.
1237 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015 COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH KAMA AT THIS TIME.
619 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
409 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015 A WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND FOCUS NUMEROUS SHOWERS. WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST TODAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RADAR INDICATING SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA TROUGH. CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST/WEST FLORIDA THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH. AS TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS. 75 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WEST. WARMER HIGHS SHOULD OCCUR TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT IS DEPARTING THE CWA. DEWPOINTS/RELATIVE HUMIDITY BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS ALSO BEEN FALLING SHARPLY TODAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A TIGHT RETURN FLOW PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD WARM UP INTO THE 60S TO PERHAPS LOWER 70S IN A FEW SPOTS.
THE TROUGH PRODUCED SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FROM EAST CENTRAL WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING. THIS RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH INTENSIFIES OVER THE GREAT BASIN. TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER AND WINDIER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST WY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 6500 FEET LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA EARLY ON WEDS AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS UTAH INTO THE 4 CORNERS AREA. SPREADING OVER THE PLAINS WEDS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW STALLS AND A FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE AREA.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT.
434 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015 DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EXTREME W TX THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO CHURN EWD AS EVIDENCED IN THE WV IMAGERY. SIGNIFICANT LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW HAS RESULTED IN A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS S CENTRAL/SE TX. TRAILING A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL OK. MULTIPLE VORTS WILL ROUND THE SE SIDE OF THE LOW TODAY. WE SHOULD SEE COVERAGE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES AND THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO OPEN UP/LIFT NEWD INTO OK.
339 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015 WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION TODAY ON A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
320 AM PDT MON APR 13 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. A SOUTHWEST AIR FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT UPPER WAVE IS SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER CA. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL MT INTO NE. RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY COVER THE CENTRAL STATES AS THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG CANADIAN UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SWEEP THE CALIFORNIAN LOW EASTWARD. WINDS AROUND 25 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 35 KTS ARE EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS BUT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION MONDAY EVENING.
124 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015 A TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SIERRA THROUGH MONDAY.
450 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA.
1215 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 CIGS WILL GRADUALLY BE LOWERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN AREA OF RAIN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE EAST.
1201 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST WILL KEEP AREA IN A SOUP OF MOSTLY IFR TO OCNL LIFR CIGS. CLOSER TO A BOUNDARY EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE LOW. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RIDING OVER THE COOLER AIRMASS NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT TO ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY.
141 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA.
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS THAT COULD SEE VERY LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ONE MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL IMPACTS FROM ANY LIGHT PRECIP IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE SHORT IN DURATION AND NOT EXPECTED TO ADD MUCH TO REFREEZING ISSUE. ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE NOT VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH ANY DENSE FOG/FREEZING FOG ISSUES BUT WE WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION FOG IN THE FORECAST. TURN OVER TO NON-FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP LATE TOMORROW MORNING FOR A WHILE.
AS DRY AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND COLD FRONT. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT IN THE LOW LEVELS AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO EARLY EVENING.
121 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER MONDAY NIGHT THE WEATHER WILL START OUT QUIET AS A COOL DRY AIR MASS WILL BE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP NORTHERN AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR EARLY BUT CLOUDS LINGER EXTREME SOUTH WITH POSSIBLE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN.
Other areas of southwest Texas have enjoyed plenty of sunshine today with Marfa being lucky enough to warm into the lower 70s. Locations over the north and northeast portions of the CWA will remain below freezing overnight, so freezing fog is included for those areas. Also, the northeast half of the Texas Permian Basin could see some light rain or freezing rain overnight with little if any accumulation expected. So while we might be a little warmer than today, we have opted to go on the low end of temperature guidance.
The 1 pm EST regional surface analysis showed a strong ridge along the Piedmont, a decaying, quasi-stationary front from just off the SC coast through north FL, and a developing frontal system across MS. We expect the low clouds to continue overnight, with areas of fog developing after midnight.
319 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015 UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL STEAM EASTWARD THIS EVENING. AND WHERE RIDGE AXIS AND CLEARING COINCIDE WITH MINOR SNOW COVER.
A COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST WITH A SHALLOW DENSE AIRMASS PERSISTING OVER S TX. WAA STRENGTHENS MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE KICKS OUT OF THE ROCKIES.
SHALLOW WEDGE OF COOL MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT SHOULD USHER IN DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS WILL ALSO VEER SOUTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS EASTERN MONTANA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WERE NOT SEEN AS STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL, IN LACKING A SHEAR LAYER ABOVE OR NEAR THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER. AS A RESULT, THE REST OF THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BE COLD AND CLOUDY WITH STRATUS REMAINING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH POSSIBLY SOME AREAS OF FREEZING FOG DEVELOPING MAINLY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE LINE WHERE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE BEEN THE SMALLEST. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE, THE LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE SIMILAR, IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
1139 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW CENTERED WELL TO THE EAST ALONG THE EAST COAST THOUGH SOME RIDGING DOES EXTEND WEST THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD FAR NORTHEAST IOWA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND MUCH DRIER AIR RACING IN FROM THE WEST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER TODAY HOWEVER THE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
THE COMBINATION OF MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND REMNANT SNOW COVER OVERNIGHT WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL FOG/FREEZING FOG CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. AREAS OF FREEZING FOG EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 10 AM. WITH THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. AND HAVE CALLED FOR AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE PASSAGE OF A QUICK-MOVING VORTICITY MAXIMUM MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING AND LIGHT RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
452 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
127 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE GENERALLY SHOWING BETWEEN H5 HEIGHTS OF 588-590 DAM CREEPING INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES OF THE CWA.
THOUGH THAT LOOKS TO CHANGE IN A HEARTBEAT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DIVES THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. BUT ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXISTS FOR A COATING TO AN INCH. WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS PETROLEUM COUNTY.
THIS MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE SW HAS CONTINUED TO PRODUCE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WE HAVE EXPERIENCED AS OF LATE. AS A COLD FRONT PASSES FROM THE NW.
IT WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST TONIGHT. AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST CONUS. ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE INVERTED TROUGH THAT WAS ALONG OUR COAST YESTERDAY WILL MERGE WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA. 850MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA ON MONDAY. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST FROM THE YUCATAN. HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S WILL CONTINUE.
1135 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015 THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME FLURRIES ALONG WITH IT. ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS SET UP ALOFT WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM WESTERN ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH WESTERN MINNESOTA. EXPECT THAT THESE FLURRIES WILL DIMINISH AS THE DAY PROCEEDS AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME WARMER AIR WILL BE ADVECTED UP INTO THE REGION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE/LOW LEVEL WINDS WHICH WILL HELP HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 20S BY THIS AFTERNOON.
1000 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015 A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE FROM A COLD UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
SECOND BOUNDARY IS THE TRUE WARM FRONT WHICH SEPARATES THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AS WELL. THE 12Z CRP AND LCH SOUNDINGS CAPTURE THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASSES NORTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES. SUSPECT THE EML WILL ADVECT OVER SE TX MORE IN THE COMING DAYS AND LIKELY BE A FACTOR IN THE FORECAST WHEN THE STRONG COLD FRONT COMES WED. UNTIL THEN MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE HOW/WHEN/WHERE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH/STALLS AND THEN PUSHES NORTH AGAIN THROUGH TUE. A NEAR COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND INLAND ADVANCING WARM FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEEDED TO KEEP DECKS AND VISIBILITIES LOW.
1240 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ATOP THE WARM FRONT AND DISTURBANCES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ADDING TO THE OVERALL PIC- TURE. SECOND BOUNDARY IS THE TRUE WARM FRONT WHICH SEPARATES THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AS WELL. THE 12Z CRP AND LCH SOUNDINGS CAPTURE THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASSES NORTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES. SUSPECT THE EML WILL ADVECT OVER SE TX MORE IN THE COMING DAYS AND LIKELY BE A FACTOR IN THE FORECAST WHEN THE STRONG COLD FRONT COMES WED. UNTIL THEN MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE HOW/WHEN/WHERE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH/STALLS AND THEN PUSHES NORTH AGAIN THROUGH TUE.