Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Knocked a degree or two off the highs for today because of the cloud cover. MLCAPE peaks around 200 j/kg over the higher terrain with very little over the plains. A trough axis makes its way into the High Plains Thursday which initially doesn't bring much precipitation to our region.
But as the evening progresses moisture in the low levels will increase with continued WAA and some fgen bringing the lift necessary for some precip to reach the surface, especially by the late overnight hours.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developing this afternoon across the higher terrain of central Idaho.
Concur with the deterministic output which predict the SCNTRL CONUS under a flat upper ridge tonight/Thursday, with axis translating east of the region Thursday night while an upper level disturbance enters the Rockies.
908 AM PDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Cooler weather with a greater influence from the marine layer is expected through Thursday. Gusty westerly winds across the mountains and deserts will be boosted by a trough of low pressure moving through the region.
Ridging remains over the region today with continued easterly breezes.
A warm front draped across the northeast Nebraska border brought warm moist southerly flow over the forecast area today.
313 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Expect increasing clouds again this evening then becoming mostly cloudy tonight, with a chance of rain and freezing rain mix in the west. The wave will move completely through in the afternoon with a slight ridge moving back in. Clouds should break up again in the afternoon with the ridging. Most of the snow has melted in the far southwest aiding in warmer temperatures with the stronger April sun. Thursday night a slight ridge builds in before southwest flow aloft from the deep trough moves in.
/issued 737 AM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022/ An upper low moves down the Saint Lawrence Valley today with a trailing trough swinging out over the Atlantic and an accompanying front slowly moving down the state. High pressure in the wake of the front will increase winds. Robust winds continue across the waters Thu-Fri then diminish for the weekend as the high pressure shifts out over the Atlantic.
Very low dewpoints will mix down tomorrow in the central and western parts of Upper Michigan to help create some afternoon relative humidity in the low twenty percent-range. The coolest MaxT's tomorrow are most favored for the Keweenaw and Lake Michigan shoreline communities from the cooler onshore east/southeasterly winds. Slight point adjustments were made from the high-percentile NBM guidance as a result. The eastern half of Upper Michigan should stay dry under ridging.
High pressure and clearing sky will lead to a freeze over most of PA tonight and perhaps again Fri AM.
657 PM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Drier and cooler air infiltrates the area through most of the week. High pressure will control area weather through the period, resulting in mainly clear skies and dry conditions.
A mid-level ridge is located over Central Indiana and has allowed for dry weather and mainly clear skies for most of the day. Current satellite imagery shows clouds beginning to move into northern counties as a weak impulse rides over the ridge. A notable temperature gradient is present across the CWA with temperatures in the low-mid 60s across the south with low-mid 50s across the north.
Moisture has still been limited, with the highest totals across SWFL only coming in around 1. Ridge axis placement for the next couple days means we'll see that change. As the ridge axis slides east, winds are expected to also become more easterly for tomorrow.
A cold front moving through the state tomorrow brings gusty winds approaching 35 mph with gusts approaching 55 mph across the CWA as well as light rain showers for northern portions of Nevada. This quick moving front is expected to clear out by tomorrow night, leaving cooler but dry conditions behind it.
632 PM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Cooler and dry weather is expected the remainder of the week, before a warm up this weekend. Building high pressure is expected to continue to clear the sky and lighten the wind tonight; hence, radiational cooling is likely to support a hard freeze and threaten record lows.
The forecast for a chance of mostly light rain or light freezing rain remains on track for tonight through tomorrow morning, moving from southwest to northeast. Any areas that see rain with air temperatures at or below freezing are not likely to experience impacts beyond a very thin glaze of ice on elevated objects. Expect increasing clouds again this evening then becoming mostly cloudy tonight, with a chance of rain and freezing rain mix in the west. The wave will move completely through in the afternoon with a slight ridge moving back in. Clouds should break up again in the afternoon with the ridging. Most of the snow has melted in the far southwest aiding in warmer temperatures with the stronger April sun. Thursday night a slight ridge builds in before southwest flow aloft from the deep trough moves in.
Quiet weather in store with broad high pressure over the region. IR Satellite reveals some high-level clouds pushing in from the west/northwest, and that combined with light northeasterly/easterly winds which should help to keep tomorrow morning lows about 5-10 degrees warmer than what they were this AM. Winds are expected to stay up overnight and that will keep overnight minimum temps a bit warmer. Lows will range from the upper 30s to the lower 40s over SE Indiana and into the Bluegrass region.
Upper level troughing across the Pacific Northwest will keep showers in the forecast today and Thursday.
A spring pattern remains in place with broad upper level troughing across the eastern Pacific into British Columbia that will persist through the weekend. The best chances for precipitation will be across Coos, Douglas, northern Klamath, and northern Lake counties with rounds of showers and periods of breezy to gusty winds with each trough passage. None of these troughs look to be particularly strong or cold, so precipitation will be on the light side with snow levels in the 4000-7000 ft range.
1052 PM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Cooler and dry weather is expected the remainder of the week, before a warm up this weekend. Building high pressure is expected to continue to clear the sky and lighten the wind tonight; hence, radiational cooling is likely to support a hard freeze and threaten record lows.
Tranquil conditions across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon with high pressure in control of the weather. Still, expect mostly sunny and dry conditions in place and subsequently a warmer day thanks to the southerly flow as highs in the 75 to 80 degree range will be common.
759 PM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 A dry and cooler air mass continue building into the region through Thursday.
Surface ridging and dry northwest flow aloft is producing clear sky and light/calm winds. Ridging surface and aloft will keep conditions dry. Chattanooga Airport, TN 48 78 53 80 59 / 0 0 0 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 44 74 51 76 56 / 0 0 0 20 40 Oak Ridge, TN 44 75 51 74 55 / 0 0 0 20 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 38 69 46 69 53 / 0 0 0 20 50.
843 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022 /Updated at 0840 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022/ Mid/upper-level ridging remains established across the Plains, with heights rising farther east throughout the Mississippi River Valley per mesoanalysis. Low-level ridging remains in place across the Southeast, and a footprint of high pressure extends from the Great Lakes toward the Deep South. High pressure will move to the east, and this will promote a transition to southeasterly afternoon breezes.
637 PM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 High pressure will settle across the area tonight and persist into Thursday. High temperatures should have a few hours in the late afternoon as clouds continue to scour out to warm a few more degrees to still reach around 40 to the lower 40s for most spots. With the high becoming more firmly established into the central Great Lakes into tonight, winds are anticipated to trend towards calm, and with clear skies, excellent radiational cooling conditions are anticipated. Low temperature records for tonight will be in play (Climate section below), with lows region-wide down well into the 20s and holding onto the low 30s in the Detroit metro.
Rain chances will shift to the south of Cape Canaveral as low pressure stalls near the Treasure Coast. While instability and wind fields will be rather weak, relatively high DCAPE, cooler temperatures aloft, and increased upper-level support would suggest an isolated strong storm is not out of the question in the afternoon south of Melbourne. Expect cooler temperatures behind the boundary with skies gradually clearing to the northwest through Thursday evening.
641 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Upper level ridging is currently building into the Midwest and will continue to do so overnight. Being under the ridge will result in a quiet night. Highs Thursday will vary widely, as locations that see rain earlier in the day will be much cooler than those that do not. An upper level trough will traverse the Intermountain West Thursday night. This low will be the focus for the extended.
708 PM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 The latest upper level map features a deeper trough pushing east across the Eastern Seaboard. Ridging is aligned across the Plains, leaving the Ohio and Tennessee valleys in northwest flow. At the surface, low pressure is near Nova Scotia, with a secondary cold front aligned southwest through the central Appalachians. High pressure rules from the Great Lakes down through the Ohio Valley and into the lower Mississippi Valley. Further west, broad low pressure is seen along the lee-side of the Rockies, with a quasi- stationary boundary branched to the east through the middle Mississippi Valley. Mostly sunny skies have remained in place across eastern Kentucky, with temperatures rebounding into the lower to middle 60s at most locations. Ridging will move east from the Plains, broadening and amplifying somewhat as it moves into the Mississippi Valley.
525 PM MDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Short wave trough passing over Colorado will bring scattered showers and few thunderstorms this afternoon. Airmass will remain on the mild side withe lows in the 35 to 45 degree range across northeast Colorado. A weak cold front backdoors into far northeast Colorado. Thursday evening, a trough approaches from the west with an axis of instability positioning to east brushing the far northeast corner of CO.
/issued 347 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022/ Generally pleasant conditions today will continue through tonight but the high pressure over our area will begin to move eastward.
740 PM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Chilly weather continues tonight with sub-freezing lows over parts of southern Michigan into northwest Ohio.
Slight shower chances at times over the higher elevations with locally breezy winds.
The latest upper level map features a deeper trough pushing east across the Eastern Seaboard. Ridging is aligned across the Plains, leaving the Ohio and Tennessee valleys in northwest flow. At the surface, low pressure is near Nova Scotia, with a secondary cold front aligned southwest through the central Appalachians. High pressure rules from the Great Lakes down through the Ohio Valley and into the lower Mississippi Valley. Further west, broad low pressure is seen along the lee-side of the Rockies, with a quasi- stationary boundary branched to the east through the middle Mississippi Valley. Mostly sunny skies have remained in place across eastern Kentucky, with temperatures rebounding into the lower to middle 60s at most locations. Ridging will move east from the Plains, broadening and amplifying somewhat as it moves into the Mississippi Valley.
1046 PM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 High pressure north of Lake Superior will start to gain some control of our weather tonight.
940 PM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Drier and cooler air infiltrates the area through most of the week. High pressure will control area weather through the period, resulting in mainly clear skies and dry conditions.
526 PM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Dry high pressure continues to build into the today, with temperatures steadily recovering into the weekend.
814 PM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 High pressure will prevail into late week. Lower dewpoints/RH values reside on the inland side of the sea breeze where min RH values managed to dip into the lower 20 to lower 30 percent range. Aloft, the axis of a mid/upper ridge across the Central US will gradually propagate toward the forecast area.
/Tonight through Thursday Night/ The transition period between our present cooler and drier to a warmer and more humid air mass will occur during the short-term forecast. For Thursday, look for the warming trend to continue as a warm front lifts back NE across the region. Afternoon highs will climb into the lower to mid 80s areawide under partly to mostly cloudy skies.
A spring pattern is in place with broad upper level troughing across the eastern Pacific into British Columbia that will persist through the weekend. None of these troughs look particularly strong at this time, so the overall weather will be beneficial with snow levels in the 4000-7000 ft range.
The forecast remains on track, with a warmer day on tap tomorrow under increasingly southerly flow aloft. Short wave trough passing over Colorado will bring scattered showers and few thunderstorms this afternoon. Airmass will remain on the mild side withe lows in the 35 to 45 degree range across northeast Colorado. A weak cold front backdoors into far northeast Colorado. Thursday evening, a trough approaches from the west with an axis of instability positioning to east brushing the far northeast corner of CO.
A series of shotwave troughs have begun to impact northern Arizona with another trough quickly moving west to east Thursday throughout the day.
1002 PM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 High pressure will prevail into late week. Lower dewpoints/RH values reside on the inland side of the sea breeze where min RH values managed to dip into the lower 20 to lower 30 percent range. Aloft, the axis of a mid/upper ridge across the Central US will gradually propagate toward the forecast area.
853 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Another picture perfect evening with mostly clear skies and light winds as high pressure remains overhead. Overnight lows will drop down into the mid 40s, which is a few degrees warmer than last night. Still, expect mostly sunny and dry conditions in place and subsequently a warmer day thanks to the southerly flow as highs in the 75 to 80 degree range will be common.
702 PM EDT Wed Apr 27 2022 High pressure will prevail into late week. Lower dewpoints/RH values reside on the inland side of the sea breeze where min RH values managed to dip into the lower 20 to lower 30 percent range. Aloft, the axis of a mid/upper ridge across the Central US will gradually propagate toward the forecast area.
147 AM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022 Cooler and dry weather is expected the remainder of the week, before a warm up this weekend. Building high pressure is expected to continue to clear the sky and lighten the wind tonight; hence, radiational cooling is likely to support a hard freeze and threaten record lows.
As they do, temperatures across central and northern portions of the CWA are expected to reach or drop below freezing, providing a chance for light freezing rain. Rainfall rates will be an important factor in determining if any minor flooding issues arise across the area that is expected to see the highest QPF totals (south central and southeast).
134 AM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022 A dry and cooler air mass continue building into the region today. High pressure will maintain control of the region overnight.
Latest surface analyses indicate a large dome of high pressure has developed over Louisiana, Mississippi and Arkansas. Tomorrow, high pressure will very slowly slide eastward, turning surface winds to the south-southeast. Clear, sunny skies and a southerly wind will allow area temperatures to climb into the low 80s by afternoon. A strong low pressure system will quickly develop in the Great Plains overnight Thursday into Friday. Gradient southerly flow will strengthen between this low to the northwest and high to the east, lifting a warm front north across the area.
Critical fire weather conditions will ease over western and central New Mexico this evening as well but will return Thursday to the east and south as very dry weather, warmer than normal temperatures and strong southwest winds combine. A few gusty showers and storms along and west of the central mountain chain should diminish by sunset, while a few strong to severe storms in the eastern plains will continue to track east and northeast and should move into Texas by mid evening along with most of the low level moisture. Models suggest some of the low level moisture may attempt to return into southeast/far east central NM tonight with a possible round of low clouds setting up over the far eastern tier of counties. Highs Thursday will be 5-15 degrees warmer than normal.
The severe threat then diminishes by late evening as the cold front pushes through and cooler and more stable air rushes in.
252 AM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022 Sprawling high pressure (1030 MB) established over the Great Lakes region/Ontario this morning providing optimal radiating conditions (outside of some high clouds earlier across the far southwest part of CWA/Lenawee county). The very cold airmass (also indicated by yesterday's daily record low 850 MB temp of -11 C per 12z DTX Raob) will be slowly moderating today and Friday (full/near full insolation allowing temps to rise into the 50s), with building upper level ridge axis moving over the Central Great Lakes on Friday night.
305 AM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022 A backdoor cold front will move through early this morning. Cool high pressure will build over the area through late week. A warm front will move slowly north into the area over the weekend. Latest analysis shows complex low pressure off the New England coast with backdoor front moving through NE NC. The backdoor cold front will push through eastern NC early this morning, with strong high pressure building in from the NNW behind it. High pressure will remain in control overnight with upper trough pushing off the eastern US. Leaned towards the cooler side of guidance with lows falling into the upper 30s/low 40s inland and low/mid 40s along the coast. Think will see increasing high clouds towards sunrise with moisture riding over the ridge in the central US.
A high amplitude upper ridge will then develop over the area on Fri ahead of the cyclogenesis over the central Great Plains.
Low RH expected again today across the area Discussion: Temperatures ranged from the lower 40s to lower 50s early this morning. Daytime temperatures will be slightly warmer than yesterday but RH will generally be in the mid 20s.
In the upper levels, it's a trof-ridge-trof high amplitude pattern, with us under the ridge. Dew points climb up into the 50s by then, and MUCapes in the lower click support it in the perturbation free warm sector.
/Updated at 0840 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022/ Mid/upper-level ridging remains established across the Plains, with heights rising farther east throughout the Mississippi River Valley per mesoanalysis. Low-level ridging remains in place across the Southeast, and a footprint of high pressure extends from the Great Lakes toward the Deep South. High pressure will move to the east, and this will promote a transition to southeasterly afternoon breezes. 40/Sizemore /Updated at 0306 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022/ Added in low pops in the southeast for Friday afternoon, as the mid level ridge starts to break down.
The first opportunity for rainfall will favor portions of the Lower and Middle Keys early this afternoon, owed to any potential cumulus cloud line formation. High pressure will build across the western Atlantic Friday through the weekend, resulting in a much more well-defined east to southeast steering flow. Recent global model guidance suggests a slightly stronger high pressure cell than previous runs, warranting a slight upwards tick in forecast wind speeds this weekend.
This will keep temperatures similar to yesterday despite the warmer air moving in, as we will get less direct sunlight thanks to the increased cloud cover. This means increasing rain chances on Friday into the weekend when the higher rain chances occur.
A weak southern stream wave will pass overhead today around the base of the departing eastern CONUS trough. Starting tonight, low-level east/southeast flow will become established as the diffuse frontal boundary lays out northwest to southeast along the base of the southward building ridge.
Tonight into Friday: A low pressure system will shift eastward across the central Plains through this time period.
Temperatures will be mild today with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s, cooler at the coast and warmer inland. Overnight lows tonight will range from the lower 50s in inland SE GA to the lower 60s in north central FL. Lows will be slightly warmer in the middle 60s along the coast.
403 AM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022 High pressure will dominate the region through the rest of the work week. Water vapor satellite showed an upper-level low spinning just east of New England, and an upper-ridge building into the Midwest. Heights aloft will slightly build today as the ridge to our west pushes east. The upper ridge will build across the TN Valley and Great Lakes region Friday, and amplify as the upper low lingers near New England and another upper trough digs across the Rockies. At the surface, the backdoor front will stall and linger to our south across SC, with high pressure to our north developing cold air damming across the region and widespread cloudiness.
1110 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Upper level ridging is currently building into the Midwest and will continue to do so overnight. Being under the ridge will result in a quiet night. Highs Thursday will vary widely, as locations that see rain earlier in the day will be much cooler than those that do not. An upper level trough will traverse the Intermountain West Thursday night. This low will be the focus for the extended. South-southwesterly flow aloft in advance of the low pressure system will continue to transport warmer air and moisture into the area.
855 PM PDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Cooler weather with a greater influence from the marine layer is expected through Thursday. Gusty westerly winds across the mountains and deserts will be boosted by a trough of low pressure moving through the region.
A low pressure system remains on track to impact the Northern Rockies tonight into Friday. Model guidance has come into better agreement with the track of the low in the last 24 hours.
As an upper- level ridge across the region becomes less amplified, high clouds will begin to stream eastward allowing for increased cloud cover across mainly the I-30 corridor by daybreak.
1147 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022 While a brief cooldown takes place on Thursday and Friday, warmer weather will start off the weekend, when many areas reach the 70s for highs.
The forecast remains on track, with a warmer day on tap tomorrow under increasingly southerly flow aloft. Short wave trough passing over Colorado will bring scattered showers and few thunderstorms this afternoon. Airmass will remain on the mild side withe lows in the 35 to 45 degree range across northeast Colorado. A weak cold front backdoors into far northeast Colorado. Thursday evening, a trough approaches from the west with an axis of instability positioning to east brushing the far northeast corner of CO. The main trough axis and associated low pressure move across Friday with majority of the moisture staying off to the east. Moisture with the low combined with NW flow will support orographic rain/snow showers over the higher terrain. Moisture stays in place over the northeast corner Friday afternoon on the backside of the low which will promote chances for showers.
A ridge of high pressure remains over the area today, before shifting to the east this afternoon. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s.