Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/ISSUED 334 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2015/ (Today and Tonight) An upper level ridge is currently sprawled from AZ east into the southern plains, with an upper level low moving west into northern Mexico and the Big Bend area on the southern side of the ridge. This weak upper level low is expected to continue moving slowly westward today, keeping our area largely under the control of the ridge. Isolated showers are affecting northern Mexico and the lower Trans Pecos currently, and there may be an isolated shower or two later today, mainly south of a Brownwood to Sterling City line.
352 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2015 (Tonight and Wednesday) An upper level ridge will continue to be the dominant weather feature the next 24 hours.
HIGH PRESSURE AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET THIS EVENING AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
Cold Front A front has stalled out across the area.
114 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY, AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA, FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BUILDS IN WED TO BE OVER THE REGION WED NGT. WED NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE REGION. BY THURS MORNING WE TRANSITION INTO A PATTERN WHERE WE HAVE TROUGHING IN THE EAST AND RIDGING IN THE WEST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID WEST THEN OVER SOUTHERN PA THURS. THIS PATTERN CONSISTS OF TROUGHING OVER THE EAST AND RIDGING OVER THE WEST. MULT WAVES WILL RIDE AROUND THE TROUGH AND CREATE ENOUGH UPPR LVL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS.
THOUGH OBS/RADAR SUGGEST A SLOW NORTHWARD RETREAT INTO THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY SINCE ABOUT 20Z. AND SOME WEAK LIFT MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG/NORTH OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT. AIR MASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER. EXPECT MAX TEMPS ON THE PLAINS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TUE MANY LOCATIONS. WHILE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS STAY UNCHANGED TO A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER AS CLOUDS HOLD BACK TEMPS SLIGHTLY.
219 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ALLOWING FOR A DRY AND LESS HUMID WEDNESDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS PORTRAY A FAIR AMOUNT OF CU TOMORROW WITH A MODEST LAYER OF 85% RH AND GREATER IN THE LOWEST 6KFT. BENIGN WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST.
AT THIS POINT THE NAM AND OTHER CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ONLY SUGGEST CONVECTION UP ALONG THE WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT, AS OROGRAPHIC AND HIGH TERRAIN INITIATED STORMS MOVE OUT OF CENTRAL COLORADO AND INTO NW KANSAS. CLOUDS FROM DECAYING CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT WHILE THE DOWNSLOPE SURFACE WINDS SUPPORT THE WARMER MODEL TEMPERATURES VS. THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE.
ISSUED AT 340 AM AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER LATE MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
345 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO THE NE US HAS A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
AND THERE ARE SIGNS OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO SAG INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TONIGHT WITH HIGHS A BIT COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP HANGING AROUND.
631 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND.
539 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. AN UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS MUCH DRIER AIR WITH BELOW NORMAL PWS SPREADS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. FCST MINS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50F IN THE NW TO THE LOW 60S IN THE SE. AS WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS.
Overall negative for convection is upper level ridging, but diurnal heating and convergence will have a chance to get some updrafts going. A flat upper ridge will keep the weather hot/humid but precip free Wed and during the day Thu. The upper level pattern gradually amplifies with ridging out west and troughing over the eastern CONUS by late in the week.
233 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2015 BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO IS BRINGING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THE INVERSION OVER THE PLAINS TO BE ERODED BY WEDNESDAY FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY BY A COUPLE DEGREES OVER TODAY.
STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT, THINK THEY WILL BE ISOLATED AND TRI WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS NEAR THE TERMINAL.
WILL CARRY 10-30 POP WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTH. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MO RIVER STAND THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES. WITH A SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY.
243 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
335 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2015 For the rest of the afternoon, a line of storms is expected to continue riding along the thermal ridge/edge of the capping inversion, basically along a line from Atchison county KS to Sedalia. By tomorrow morning, ridging will be fully entrenched across the CWA and the boundary will have lifted well north of the MO/IA border, keeping the area mainly dry except potentially in very far northeast portions of the CWA where the boundary and upper-level flow begin to arc slightly northwest- to southeast-ward. Have issued a special weather statement for the KC metro area mentioning heat issues, and may need to issue a small heat advisory if temperatures look similar or a degree or two warmer with the next model runs.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CUTTING THROUGH NORTHWEST OHIO. THESE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
307 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
1233 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 A MUCH QUIETER FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR TODAY WITH A LARGE COOL HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL CLEARLY BE COOLER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. BUT STILL IN THE LOWER 80S GENERALLY.
STRONG UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDSOUTH. MEANWHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND WESTERN KY. SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT. THE HRRR HAS BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS BUT IT HAS NOT HAPPENED YET. ANOTHER VERY HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE AREA.
AND WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TODAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND +10 CELSIUS. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT AS DAYTIME HIGHS GET INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. THE QUIET STRETCH WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. FURTHER SOUTH THE MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT.
348 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
GENERALLY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S. A DISTURBANCE/COLD FRONT SLIDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS AT CMX THIS EVENING. AND A BETTER CHANCE AT SAW WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF DAYTIME HEATING AS THE COLD FRONT SINKS S ACROSS UPPER MI.
THE NAM MODEL REMAINS COOLER THAN THE GFS. AND FAVORED THE WARMER GFS SOLUTION WITH EXPECTED INCREASED AFTERNOON SUN AND A RETURN SERLY WIND. AN UPPER RIDGE CENTER TO ALSO EXTEND ACROSS NRN NEW MEXICO THROUGH OKLA AND ARKANSAS. A DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE THE WESTERLIES NORTH OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS NRN CO INTO WRN NEBR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER 30 POPS ARE LOCATED INTO SWRN AND WCTRL NEBR PER NAM/ARW/NMM SOLUTIONS BTWN 03Z-06Z. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE.
358 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 SFC RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER AND MID 90S AREAWIDE. WITH THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE CENTER OF THE H500 RIDGE OVER CNTRL OK THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SHIFT E INTO THE MID-SOUTH REGION WEDNESDAY. WITH THE SFC-H850 RIDGE ALSO EXPECTED TO SHIFT E AS WELL INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. DID EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NRN ZONES AS WELL AS A WEAKNESS ROUNDS THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WNW.
THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL EARLY THIS MORNING THEN RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY.
/ISSUED 401 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2015/ Upper ridge centered over the Panhandle will slowly move east as an inverted trough move west under the ridge and across the southern CWA today. As the week goes on the upper ridge will strengthen over the Western U.
AN UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. EXPECT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS TO INCREASE THRU 22-23Z ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL PA WHERE A VERY MOIST BLYR /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S/ CONTINUES TO HEAT/DESTABILIZE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVELY. THE COLD FRONT RELATED TO THE ERN CANADA TROUGH WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL PA BY LATE THIS EVENING. AT 18Z THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE PUSHING SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER GRT LKS. A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS MUCH DRIER AIR WITH BELOW NORMAL PWS SPREADS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. FCST MINS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50F IN THE NW TO THE LOW 60S IN THE SE. AS WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS.
AN UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. EXPECT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS TO INCREASE THRU 22-23Z ACROSS SOUTH- CENTRAL PA WHERE A VERY MOIST BLYR /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S/ CONTINUES TO HEAT/DESTABILIZE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVELY. THE COLD FRONT RELATED TO THE ERN CANADA TROUGH WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL PA BY LATE THIS EVENING. AT 18Z THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE PUSHING SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER GRT LKS. A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS MUCH DRIER AIR WITH BELOW NORMAL PWS SPREADS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. FCST MINS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50F IN THE NW TO THE LOW 60S IN THE SE. AS WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS.
CUMULUS BEGINNING TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
229 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND. ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AS IT NOW APPROACHES CMH. MODELS ARE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE CLEARING OF THE COLD FRONT.
MORE OF THE SAME CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW AS SSW SFC FLOW CONTINUES UNDER A MID TO UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING TO THE EAST.
411 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 CURRENTLY, A DEEP LAYER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA EXTENDING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA DRIFTING TO THE NORTH AS IT ALSO WEAKENS.
BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THE LOW LEVELS WILL HAVE DRIED OUT ENOUGH TO PREVENT THIS FROM OCCURRING. LIMITED POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY THE HIGH DEGREE OF INSOLATION WITHIN A MODESTLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT.
/REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/ COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT DRIER AIR IS TAKING ITS TIME WORKING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT. BUT READINGS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
NOTED THAT K-INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE THE 40 MARK WITH AMPLE DEEP MOISTURE BROUGHT IN FROM THE EAST THANKS TO A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF.
BUT LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND LACK OF STRONG CAPPING SHOULD CONTINUE THE DIURNAL TREND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EAST WITH CHANCES SHIFTING WEST WITH THUNDER. THE DRIER MIDLEVELS TONIGHT MAY LEAD TO BRIEF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AND COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPS ACROSS THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS BUT MAINLY ISOLATED IN THE LOW LYING SPOTS.
ZONAL FLOW REMAINS ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE CARRIED EAST BY THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AND THEN A NOTABLE PATTERN CHANGE TO AMPLIFIED WESTERN CONUS RIDGING AND EASTERN TROUGHING OCCURS EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THE ATTENDANT WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD NORTHERN IOWA ON WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE CONVECTION SPAWN ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE SUPPLIES COOLER TEMPS ALOFT.
132 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND BRING A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER IF THEY ARE ABLE TO FORM AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT, THEY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF ENERGY TO TAP INTO. COLD FRONT, WHICH HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER THAN MODELS PREDICTED, WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND CLEAR OUT STORMS IN THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH INTO THE 90'S AS THE COLD FRONT PROVIDES LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WE'VE BEEN EXPERIENCING LATELY.
643 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 VERY QUIET CONDITIONS FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN LAKES REGION.
1154 AM MDT TUE JUN 23 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS. TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH 80 KT JET ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. BRINGING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA.
The latest water vapor imagery loop indicates this upper-level disturbance, or so called inverted trough, is currently centered just south of the Big Bend in northern Mexico. The NAM moves this trough slowly toward the west, during the next 24 hours, and brings its center over the El Paso area by tomorrow afternoon.
850MB RIDGE WAS IN PLACE FROM EASTERN KS THROUGH NEB INTO SD/SOUTHWESTERN ND.
The LLJ jet will nose into the local area and override the warm front allow storms to develop north of the front which will be across northern Missouri by tonight. Thunderstorms will be ongoing Wednesday morning across northern Missouri however, the remainder of the day should remain dry and hot as the warm front lifts north of the CWA and the area remains capped.
MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AZ WITH NO IMPACT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. INCREASING STORM IMPACTS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING INVERTED TROUGH. AS A DEEP INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST AND BOOSTS DEWPOINTS AND LL TO ML MIXING RATIOS AS EARLY AS MIDDAY. THE UL RIDGE TRANSITIONS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS HEADING INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
/ISSUED 351 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015/ PERSISTENT WEAK RIDGING ALOFT (FROM THE WEST) AND AT THE SFC (TO THE EAST) WILL HELP TO KEEP THE CURRENT TREND OF ISOLATED MOSTLY DIURNAL POPS IN THE GRIDS TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. PER THESE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS A CHANGE WITH THE UPPER PATTERN IS LIKELY FORTHCOMING AS THE RIDGE OUT WEST AMPLIFIES AND A MORE NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE STATE.
IT WILL BE CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD.
128 PM PDT TUE JUN 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER FAIR AND DRY MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
1233 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
1234 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE IS ALLOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PER LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WITH THE FORECAST AREA DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS TODAY.
135 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
626 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 329 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016/ SATELLITE AND SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS NEARING THE OH RIVER AND SHOULD ARRIVE INTO THE TN VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEND TEMPS DOWN TOWARDS THE FREEZING MARK FOR MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES AND HAVE CONTINUED THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THOSE COUNTIES. MUCH OF NORTHERN ALABAMA SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH ONLY THE WIND SHELTERED VALLEYS THAT MAY BRIEFLY SEE TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING CLOSE TO SUNRISE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY IN NATURE.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT FIXING TO MOVE INTO THE CWA AS EVIDENT BY WIND DIRECTION FROM OBS IN EASTERN KY. FREEZE WARNING STILL IN PLACE AND UNCHANGED AS WE ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO NEAR AND JUST BELOW FREEZING TEMPS BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 37 64 44 73 / 0 0 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 33 60 40 70 / 0 0 0 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 32 60 40 71 / 0 0 0 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 30 57 37 66 / 10 0 0 40 NC.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE NOT DONE A GOOD JOB WITH THIS LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE QUICKLY OVERTAKES THE CWA. AS THIS LOW PROPAGATES SOUTHEASTWARD.
The ridge axis quickly moves east of the area late tonight and Sunday with winds coming around to the south on its back side.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA.
WHICH MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. A DEEP MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE NE STATES. PUSHING A SFC COLD FRONT BOUNDARY DOWN TO FLORIDA. 12Z SOUNDING DATA DEPICTED SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
622 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 EARLY AFTERNOON OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A SEASONABLY DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE MOVG THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THREE-HOUR PRESSURE RISES OF 1-2 MB IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW CONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTN AND CONT TO ALLOW FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE NEXT SHRTWV OF INTEREST FOR THE CWA WAS CURRENTLY TOPPING THE RIDGE IN WRN ALBERTA. VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY OVER NORTHERN NEB/SD.
/ISSUED 941 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016/ Clear skies and light winds to prevail overnight with high pressure in control.
/ISSUED 941 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016/ A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR PARIS TENNESSEE TO CORNING ARKANSAS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI AND INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. ON SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL FALL APART OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE MORNING WHICH WILL HELP BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND RANGE FROM AROUND 40 INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
1009 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
For tonight, temperatures will be a few degrees warmer with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. For Sunday, look for warmer temperatures and south to southwest winds of 10 to 15 mph.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
954 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR HAVE BEEN DROPPING QUICKLY THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AS A CLIPPER IN EASTERN ALBERTA MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
A NEAR CALM TO VARIABLE BREEZE WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS REGIONAL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.
GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION.
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH AND PROCEED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON.
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE. AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AROUND 12Z.
A DRY UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND TO OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY. BUT THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER.
518 PM MDT SAT APR 2 2016 LOCAL AREA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. BREEZY AND WARMER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
Strong PNA pattern across North America, with strong ridging over the Desert SW and a strong vortex north of the Great Lakes. Downslope SW breezes will hold overnight lows to the mid 30s NW to the lower 40s SE.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TODAY AS STRONG UPPER RIDGING STAYS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE WRN CONUS.
1023 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DECREASING WIND SPEEDS ALONG WITH A SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE WIND SHIFT WILL COME INCREASING WARM ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH EASTERN DAKOTAS.
A DRIER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WL SCOUR OUT THE LOWER CLOUDINESS WITH SOME LINGERING JET INDUCED HIGHER CLOUDINESS REMAINING A WHILE LONGER INTO SUNDAY.
1053 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
1156 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 924 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016/ THE 02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND EXTENDED NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
847 PM MDT SAT APR 2 2016 STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. RIDGE AXIS BUILDING OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S. COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
611 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DECREASING WIND SPEEDS ALONG WITH A SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE WIND SHIFT WILL COME INCREASING WARM ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH EASTERN DAKOTAS.
UNDER CLEAR SKIES RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS MOST AREAS TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR.
941 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2016 Clear skies and light winds to prevail overnight with high pressure in control.