Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This lower temperature forecast is supported by light winds, longer nights, and current and forecast dew point temperatures. A large and persistent high pressure area will dominate the short term weather across the region tonight and Thursday. As the center of the high moves east the risk of frost with temperatures in the low to mid 30s will greatly lessen. While a few temperatures around 40 are possible it is unlikely to be cooler than that. On Thursday, very low humidity of 10 to 15 percent is forecast for southwest North Dakota with 15 to 20 percent across northwest into central North Dakota as temperatures warm into the lower 80s while return moisture is not expected to yet impact the region.
Surface ridging will build into the Tennessee Valley the next 24 hours.
Cold front entering southeast Ga will push through the remainder of the area tonight. There is narrow band of scattered showers along the frontal boundary which will move across the Suwannee Valley and inland Se ga the next few hours before dissipating although a few showers or storms may persist near the warmer waters of both the gulf and atlantic. Slightly cooler and drier air begins to move into southeast Ga later tonight. A cold front will move across the area tonight. A cold front will move across the waters tonight.
/BB/ Today has been quite pleasant with temps so far only reaching into the upper 70s and low 80s as drier and cooler air continues to filter into the ArkLaMiss behind the cold frontal passage. This anomalously cool and dry airmass combined with clear skies and calm winds tonight will allow for exceptional radiational cooling with low temps dropping into the low 50s over much of the area and a few spots possibly reaching the upper 40s in the Hwy 82 corridor.
604 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2017 At 2 PM, a short wave trough was located over northeast Wisconsin. For tonight, the short wave trough over northeast Wisconsin will move southeast into Lower Michigan. On Thursday and Thursday evening, a short wave trough and cold front will move south through the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Since there is still some convergence along the departing cold front, introduced a small rain chance for this time period.
Lows well down in the 40s tonight, banking on a later night clear off and sfc wind decouple under passing ridge. This, along with less extensive diurnal CU fields should help highs get back at least into the lower 70s for much of the area, although portions of northwest IL which again again get broken coverage of ambient diurnal CU will be held back down in the 60s again. Dry conditions are expected to continue due to a blocking mid and upper level pattern across central North America.
Issued by National Weather Service ALBANY NY 718 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2017 Periods of showers are expected across the North Country through the end of the work week as a slow moving upper trough passes through the region.
1117 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2017 A deep upper-level trough will dominate our weather as it slowly lifts to the north.
1055 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2017 The vast majority of the high-based diurnal cu from this afternoon has dissipated and only patches remain within the cyclonic flow across the region. Glass High pressure continues to build into the region as trough currently over the eastern Great Lakes pushes toward the northeast US. Weak CAA behind the exiting trough and slightly drier air will lead toward trending just below guidance for tonight.
VFR/MVFR is prevailing at the three major aerodromes right now in the wake of today's weak cold front. /issued 331 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Some isolated to scattered convection has finally develop late this afternoon along and south of an early season cold front that is moving south through the RGV. This will generally lead to cooler temps tonight and Thursday afternoon, with mostly dry weather across the region through the day.
113 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017 High pressure over the Great Lakes builds southeast and will become centered over the Mid Atlantic this afternoon.
352 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2017 The main forecast concerns for the short term is the cold front moving through and the associated precipitation chances. This cloud cover has kept temperatures a bit cooler in central Nebraska. The high-resolution short-term guidance has been fairly consistent with this light activity this afternoon and the secondary more potent thunderstorm activity along the cold front this evening.
After highs today in the upper 60s to lower 70s will see temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees warmer for tomorrow afternoon under mainly sunny skies.
The upper level trough will continue to slide southeast across the region pushing the rain chances further south and east into the Northwest Hill country. Models are forecasting a mainly dry pattern for tomorrow, with little upper support for convection with the upper level trough off to the southeast.
Meanwhile more robust convection is occurring over the near shore coastal waters along a coastal trof which is impacting the coastal zones west of Marsh Island.
In the meantime, a potent upper level trough seen on water vapor movie loops was diving southeast into western ND. Thursday: Potent upper level trough/strong cold front will sweep southeast into the cwa. The main threats will be damaging winds and hail, but an isolated tornado near the warm front can't be ruled out. The cold front will be pushing into our western cwa later in the afternoon. CAMs suggest that these storms will be scattered in nature and will slowly drift to the east through the period as cold front pushes through the area.
112 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017 High pressure over the Great Lakes builds southeast and will become centered over the Mid Atlantic this afternoon.
There will be a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms with the highest chance being north of interstate 70 and the St. Kelly A cold front will stretch across northwest IL through northeast MO into southeast KS early Thursday evening, with a pre-frontal trof bi-secting metro St. The front will continue moving southeastward across the CWA on Thursday night as the associated upper level trof digs southeastward thru the MS Valley/Great Lakes. Ample CAPE and deep layer shear will be present to support multicell storms along/ahead of the cold front and pre-frontal trof, with coverage increasing from isolated- widely scattered in central MO to scattered-numerous into western IL. The upper level trof will continue to deepen across the eastern U.
Cloud cover will be extensive again today and will contribute to well below normal temperatures, with afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s.
345 PM MDT Wed Aug 2 2017 Upper wave rotating around the ridge and over CO this afternoon with line of rather fast moving tsra dropping south across the region. Convection over the mountains will begin to diminish by late evening, but may linger much of the night on the plains, as pre-frontal trough drops through by midnight, followed by the main cold front around sunrise. On Thu, cold front exits the area to the south by mid to late morning, with models suggesting at least a few -shra on the plains along and behind the boundary through midday. Max temps behind the front over the eastern mountains and plains will run 10-15f cooler than Wed maxes, with more modest cooling of 2-4f farther west over the remaining mountains and interior valleys.
High pressure will keep Thursday cool and dry, with highs only in the 70s.
For Today, upper level pattern across the CONUS will remain in a ridge west, trough east pattern with the axis of the trough located just to the west of the Ohio Valley.
356 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2017 Models in general agreement with each other as there are a series of waves and troughs moving across the area which is unusual for this time of year. An upper level trough with a northern and southern branch is moving across the region.
However, thunderstorms are noted over the mountains of CO along the northeast periphery of the upper ridge. Elsewhere, dry conditions should persist through tonight as temperatures drop into the low 60s. The strength and southern push of the associated cold front has also backed off compared to yesterdays runs.
212 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017 High pressure continues sliding eastward through Thursday with gradually increasing moisture.
350 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2017 Upper level low pressure system was over Hudson Bay with a short wave moving south on the western shoreline. Cold front with Hudson Bay system has back doored the area Upper level trough over northwest ND will move southeast and intensify. One upper level jet was located along the International border and another upper level jet was at the base of the trough.
Otherwise, a warmer day is forecast than yesterday with more insolation; however, high temperatures will still be around 10F below climatological averages. The cold front appears to have an anafront structure with post-frontal insentropic ascent, which will be favorable for post-frontal convection.
With light winds through much of the lower atmosphere, movement is slow and precip amounts associated with these storms are significant despite the low coverage. Should be weak short wave ridging over much of the area over most of the night which may inhibit the development of nocturnal storms, but will need to monitor closely this evening. On thursday a stronger wave and associated cold front will top the plains ridge and move toward IL.
333 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2017 Upper low pressure trough sinking southeast out of Canada late this afternoon with a cold front moving into western South Dakota. With the lift with the upper low pressure trough moving into our area along with the cold front pushing east tonight, still expect the showers and storms to increase in coverage late this afternoon into the evening hours. Expect much cooler air in behind as Canadian high pressure builds into the Northern Plains on Thursday with stratus clouds mixing out to cu during the day on northeast winds. Thursday night will feature high pressure over the region, so with the cool air mass in place along with the light winds, it appears lows will dip into the 40s for many areas.
240 PM MDT Wed Aug 2 2017 Just a few showers along with a weak storm or two over the higher mtns so far this afternoon. Cold front now over east-central Wyo into the northwest Neb panhandle is moving south and should clear southern parts of the CWA by early this evening. See little convection now with less instability and with better convergence pushed east along a pre-frontal trough over western Neb. Thursday looking mainly dry and cooler after some lingering morning showers near the Colorado border.
The long wave upper level trough remains positioned over the eastern and central CONUS, with South Texas remaining in a northwest flow aloft through the period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms north of the region associated with this trough will continue sinking further south this evening. However, a weaker upper level short wave will round the upper level long wave trough late tonight into Thursday. Expected rainfall and cloud cover will serve to keep afternoon temperatures slightly cooler than the past several days, with highs in the lower to mid 90s across most locations.
A better chance for thunderstorms exists Thursday afternoon as the cold front pushes further southeast through southwest and central Kansas into Oklahoma. Look for lows back down into the 60s(F) tonight as light southeasterlies prevail across the high plains. A strong cold front will push southeastward across western Kansas through the afternoon time frame halting climbing temperatures across west central Kansas by mid day. Short range models show H85 temperatures falling well into the teens(C) as much cooler air spreads across the region behind the front. Depending on the timing of the frontal passage, temperatures could struggle to reach the lower 80s(F) in west central Kansas.
508 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017 A cold front will approach from the northwest and stall over southern Quebec tonight through Thursday.
A blocking ridge of high pressure remained anchored over NW Nevada early this afternoon resulting in a dry and stable NW flow aloft over SRN Idaho. Satellite imagery was showing a fairly modest disturbance rotating over the top of the ridge into NRN British Columbia and several sub-tropical waves with associated moisture rotating north off the California coast along the WRN periphery of the high.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a trough extending from the Great Lakes to eastern Texas with flow over our CWA from the northwest. At the surface, there was a trough near the coast from Houston to Corpus Christi and then inland to Laredo. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms have formed behind this trough and these will continue for the rest of the afternoon and evening. The upper trough will move slowly to the east during this period, but the upper flow will remain northwesterly.
In the wake of a front, temps on Thu are expected to be several degrees cooler. Highs are mostly expected to be in the 70s acrs the high valleys and southeast plains, with some 60s in El Paso county. Temps on Fri should be a little warmer than on Thu. Temps should be cooler again on Sun. Cold front will drop south through KCOS and KPUB after 06z, leading to a period of gusty N-NE winds until mid- morning Thu.
401 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017 High pressure will gradually move offshore through the end of the week.
High pressure continues sliding eastward through Thursday with gradually increasing moisture.
Today through Thursday night Upper level pattern this morning characterized by ridging over the western United States with subsequent downstream troughing over the east. The associated cold front will be making its way into northwest Arkansas as the period ends.
Anticipate upper trough to strengthen and slow down, with a 500mb closed low likely across the southern valley by 18z Thur. By Thursday night, the previous system is entering the Great Lakes region and high pressure builds into North Dakota from the northwest.
304 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2017 H5 analysis this morning had closed low pressure over Hudson Bay with a low amplitude trough extending south into the Great Lakes. West of these features, high pressure was located over northern California and northern Nevada. A ridge extended north into British Columbia. At the surface, low pressure was located over central South Dakota with a cold front extending west into central Wyoming.
Early morning satellite imagery indicated a broad area of dense cloud cover over the high plains of Montana. Still thinking widespread rains will move through as the upper low passes directly overhead.
The main chance for widespread storms is expected to be ahead of the cold front tomorrow afternoon into the evening.
Will continue to see the potential for showers and a few thunderstorms in the terrain areas of southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas as well as northeast Oklahoma as the next cold front approaches the region from the north.
301 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2017 A weak cold front has settled south of the area, although with little change in airmass. However, there are still some differences in the low track, with the GFS farthest south, and the ECMWF/GEM maintaining a more northerly track across central Wisconsin.
Wednesday will be sunny, dry and noticeably warmer. Afternoon temperatures will range from the mid 80s near the Colorado border, to near 90 at Dodge City, to the lower 90s SE of Dodge City. Cold front expected to enter NW Kansas overnight, with NAM/GFS and ECMWF in excellent agreement showing the frontal boundary entering the northern zones around sunrise Thursday. If a storm were to fire along the advancing cold front late tonight/Thursday morning, it would most likely be near (likely NE) of Hays toward north central Kansas. Lows tonight in the low to mid 60s. Breezy N/NE winds usher in cooler temperatures on Thursday, with afternoon readings falling 5-10 degrees compared to Wednesday's temperatures.
As of 2 PM temperatures are running at about 3 degrees warmer than yesterday and we are on track for high temperature in Medford to be between 110-115 degrees. The thermal trough has shifted inland but has not crossed the Cascades. Unlike in previous nights, the thermal trough is expected to remain inland overnight. The thermal trough is expected to finally cross the Cascades Thursday night. This would present a big fire weather concern due to shifting winds and very low humidity as the thermal trough passes.
Low pressure sits over western SD, and the cold front is starting to move into the CWA. Decent shear and instability may support some strong to severe storms in the afternoon, especially along the cold front, but will also depend on morning convection. Precip will diminish towards evening as cool high pressure sinks into the region. Additionally on Wednesday, gusty northwest winds will be possible with the cold front. Highs Wednesday will be in the 70s to lower 80s, warmer across the south.
130 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017 Aviation A weakening cold front will drop down from the northwest today and into Lower Michigan where it will dissipate.
Winds will be light for the first 18 hours of the TAFs before maybe picking up just a bit out the SW tomorrow morning ahead of an approaching cold front. The overall pattern will feature an upper level ridge of high pressure across the western states with an upper level trof over the eastern part of the country. Slight chc pops were retained for the OK Panhandle for late tonight as a cold front begins to impinge on this area. Pops were spread south to encompass the whole forecast area on Thursday and Thursday night as the cold front slowly makes its way across the region.
While the rain has ended for now north of Interstate 20, the upper trough over the area could aid in redevelopment later this afternoon, so will continue to maintain PoPs areawide.
A strong ridge of high pressure will build along the Pacific Coast for the remainder of the week into the weekend. The location of the ridge will leave the Northern Rockies in northwesterly flow aloft.
Strong high pressure aloft centered over the western Great Basin will remain the dominant feature for Utah through the balance of the week.
411 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2017 Complex trough of low pressure digging through the Northern Plains this afternoon, with main center across northwest ND at early afternoon, but a leading weaker wave slingshotting through central SD. With even a relative lack of shear (30-35 kts at best) back toward the main trough, and lesser with leading trough, lasting storm organization will be a bit tenuous. Most favored area likely lower Brule areas toward the lower Missouri valley.
Convective coverage should gradually diminish later this evening, but an upper trough slowly moving through the region will continue to provide a source for vertical ascent and more convective development.
206 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017 Dry high pressure will prevail this afternoon.
A warm frontal boundary will push northward into the area today, bringing a return of showers and thunderstorms to parts of the area this afternoon. The highest chances for storms will be in north FL and south-central GA.
407 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017 THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: The frontal trough that was across South Florida yesterday has lifted back north this afternoon as the western Atlantic ridge has begun to build west.
As the wave approaches north central KS more showers and storms could develop in the area given the additional lift, which the high res models have been advertising for most of the morning runs. Later this afternoon more robust convection is expected to form along a strong cold front across portions of NE. Tomorrow the cold front slides through the area.
The cold front sweeps through, producing a widespread upslope regime at low levels with fog and low clouds forming along and near the southern Laramie Range and Laramie county of Wyoming. A cooler and more stable airmass will be in place, with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible along and west of Interstate 25 where the atmosphere will be most unstable. Relatively cool with considerable cloud cover and in the cooler airmass following cold frontal passage. This typically results in a cooler pattern across the area compared to the last several weeks. However, models do show several strong cold fronts and associated upper level troughs pushing across the eastern 2/3rd of the forecast area, which will likely enhance precipitation potential across the entire area.
350 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2017 Diffuse warm front is likely somewhere near Lake Pontchartrain and the Mississippi coast this afternoon as indicated by dew points and wind direction. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are located to the south of the warm front with a few cells showing rotation over the coastal waters. Warm front will move north of the area or dissipate over the next 24 hours or so.
Expect shower/storm coverage to increase across the cwa through the afternoon as lift intensifies in response to the upper level trough dropping into the region. The 500 mb trough will strengthen over MN by Thursday morning with wrap around pcpn and gusty northerly winds expected in the eastern CWA.
The next significant chance of rain will come with a cold front that will move into Oklahoma Thursday afternoon.
General trof position at 500 mb will remain over the southeast U.
Stalled frontal boundary will start inching northward tonight across northeast Florida and southeast Georgia as a weak low pressure develops along it. Southwest flow is bringing much higher PWATs back into the area as a weak upper level trough pushes south and eastward across Southeast.
Coulston Canadian cold front has moved through Central Montana and will continue to move through Southwest Montana today. Behind the front, much cooler temperatures and higher humidity will bring a much needed break from the summer heat.
318 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017 High pressure will gradually move offshore through the end of the week.
203 PM MDT Wed Aug 2 2017 A nearly stationary large high pressure ridge aloft will remain over the Western U.
1046 AM PDT Wed Aug 2 2017 August will begin with much warmer than average temperatures.
After 06Z, expect storms to be decreasing in intensity and coverage with storms exiting the eastern sections of the forecast area between 09Z-15Z following the passage of the upper short wave trough and the surface cold front. Feel it is possible to see scattered showers again through the day on Thursday as a result of the weak upper disturbance moving through from eastern Colorado along the western and southern periphery of the forecast area in the vicinity of the western extent of the cold frontal boundary as it snakes back into eastern Colorado.
After further review, we have a prefrontal trough draped across our CWA today, and by late afternoon, we should have moderate instability and little convective inhibition. The upper pattern still persists with an anomalously amplified ridge over the west coast and a trough over the eastern half of the United States, leaving us within northwest flow. Stronger mid-level flow will help initiate storms north of the area today near the cold front, clusters of thunderstorms appear even more likely than in previous runs, with fairly widespread agreement among short-term models that they will barrel through here tonight. The upper level ridge will continue to be located over the western United States with cooler northwesterly flow aloft across the central and northern plains.