Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Thinning cirrus debris from upstream convection has made it into lower Michigan but should dissipate with building ridging in place. * None Strengthening of the mid level ridge extending from the swrn US into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes this weekend will ensure hot and dry conditions across the forecast area. This will result in an increasing sw gradient across Lower Mi and slight warming of low to mid level temps across the area, supportive of max temps in the low 90s Sunday.
A ridge over northern Cuba this morning is expected to retreat eastward today and tomorrow, leaving the local area with light to gentle and variable winds on Sunday. A cloud line could also develop over the Lower Keys and move southeast today, generating a few showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. A cloud line is possible, moreso for the lower Keys during late morning and afternoon.
An upper low off the Pacific Northwest coastline continues to impact northern California, keeping precipitation north of the area. At the same time, an upper ridge of high pressure continues to build north and west toward southern California. Subtle warming is forecast today across central California as the storm system impacting northern California keeps the upper ridge from firmly building over the area. temperatures across the region were running between 3 and 10 degrees warmer compared to 24 hours ago.
221 AM PDT SAT JUN 18 2016 Low pressure will continue to produce breezy winds through this evening along with chances for showers and thunderstorms north of Interstate 80 through this afternoon.
Surface obs were showing dew point temps in the low/mid 70s extending along an inverted surface trof from eastern Kansas into eastern South Dakota. Both ECM/GFS prog a surface cold front associated with a potent vort max along the U.
212 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 High pressure will provide a fair weather pattern through the weekend.
Water vapor imagery and RAP 500 mb analysis during the early afternoon indicated an upper level low pressure system off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Model forecasts are in good agreement with the upper level flow pattern which keeps the upper low pressure off the Pacific Northwest coast tonight and Saturday. The upper level low will begin to break down Sunday and showers will exit the forecast area as a building ridge of high pressure from the south influences the area.
A weak cold front will continue to push south over the area. Slightly cooler and drier air air will then spread over the area in the wake of the boundary for the remainder of the period.
411 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016 A dominating upper level ridge just to our west will continue to amplify today. This will lead to marginally cooler temperatures this afternoon. A weakness in the ridge will move south over the area stemming from ongoing convection on the central high plains early this morning. As the aforementioned ridge amplifies, upper flow will increase out of the northeast.
116 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 The cold front is now well to the south with drier air moving into the area.
256 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016 Upper level high pressure remains firmly entrenched over the southern Rockies with a ridge extending into the Great Lakes region.
Ridging building in at the surface and aloft will keep our weather quiet through the short term with seasonable temperatures.
A backdoor cold front moving through the region may help initiate showers and storms during the day on Saturday, but confidence is not all that high at the moment so have only carried VCTS over our western sites to include SHV and in East Texas.
354 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016 Little change to the upper level ridge in command of the heart of the CONUS. A low pressure system is coming onshore across the pacific NW. Ridge builds a little over the central Rockies today.
454 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016 The latest WV imagery and UA analysis shows the upper high migrating a little further west, now cntrd over swrn NM. Although rain chcs will be increasing acrs the area today, showers and storms will remain limited over wrn portions of the area as the influence of the upper ridge will not quite be done. Aftn highs acrs wrn LA and se TX are expected to again reach the lower to middle 90s. The benefit of this is that max temps Sunday will be a little cooler than the past few days, with clouds/showers keeping highs mostly in the upper 80s.
406 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 High pressure at the surface and aloft will build in for the weekend, bringing in dry conditions with a warming trend.
117 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 High pressure will continue to build over the region through Saturday night, then slides offshore through Sunday night.
The upper ridge across Wisconsin will flatten slightly with the exit region of the jet pushing a little into northern wisconsin. High pressure will remain over the Great Lakes today and drift southeast late tonight. 925mb temperatures in the low 20s C correlate to above average highs in the 80s inland (with near shore temperatures in the 75-80 range). High High pressure will begin to depart on Sunday ahead of approaching low pressure. The high will maintain enough influence over southern Wisconsin for mostly sunny skies through the day, with continued warm temps in the mid to upper 80s.
1107 AM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016 Current surface map shows trof across eastern Montana into eastern Wyoming. Upper level ridge builds across the area today. Cold front will slip into northeast Wyoming late Sunday and slowly move across the are Sunday night. Isolated thunderstorms possible Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, mainly along trof/dry line over eastern portion of forecast area.
With a highly moist boundary layer and moist soils, continued to undercut statistical guidance with highs mainly in the lower 90s.
Overnight lows tonight will fall into the lower 70s. Upper level ridging will be in place, while a frontal zone that has been triggering our recent storms will shift to the north.
and Sunday Departing nearly stacked low pressure system departing northeastward from Lower Michigan will continue a cyclonic flow over northeast Wisconsin early today. Clouds should be on the retreat this afternoon from west to east as the high pressure region settles in.
1237 PM EDT Sat Jul 9 2016 A cold front will cross the region today.
deep upper closed low now sliding into the Pacific Northwest with ridging building downstream across the Front Range and Great Plains. upper ridge axis to continue sliding east over our region with all fcst models showing the low-level jet remaining west of the area. Nebulous pattern to persist right through the conclusion of the weekend as weak ridging prevails overhead.
1118 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 A cold front will move through this afternoon and evening. Cooler and mainly dry conditions prevail tonight and Sunday. Another stretch of warmer than normal and mainly dry weather is expected for the new week. The cold front appears to be into Warren at this point.
255 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 Cooler and drier air will build into the region this afternoon and evening with partly sunny skies.
358 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 A cold front will slide through our region tonight.
For tonight, thunderstorms are expected to develop across the eastern Dakotas within plume of high instability on the nose of the best low-level moisture transport, with additional support from 40 kt westerlies rounding the top of a 500 hPa ridge. Return southerly flow develops across the region Sunday, resulting in a warmer/more humid airmass with greater instability.
729 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 Low pressure over Southeast Ontario will continue moving east into New England today while high pressure builds in from the west.
Areas that have been rain cooled, in the NE parts of the area, are still in the lower to mid 70s as of 10am with areas to the west in the mid 80s.
Heat index values ranged from 100-110 degrees with the highest values across SE Ga where a Heat Advisory was in effect through 6 pm this evening.
Before midnight tonight, believe a few thunderstorms will remain across the area, though storm coverage should be rather low due to weak subsidence behind a mid/upper trough that is over southeastern Oklahoma. After midnight tonight, a few storms may linger closer to the departing mid/upper trough and where moisture convergence may be stronger in southeastern Oklahoma. A complex or two of storms may occur across the High Plains and get into far western Oklahoma and far western north Texas, though it appears the greater chances for this to occur will be over the Panhandles.
Upper ridge fcst to continue to break down today by disturbances in increasing nw flow aloft, which will aid additional convection and cloud cover for our region. Models more aggressive with bringing a pronounced upper trof swd along the nern/ern periphery of the wwd retreating ridge into our region by later this afternoon and into Sunday.
Convective potential this afternoon/evening will be greatest in the central Idaho mountains where instability is largest and where shear will increase as upper low off WA begins to come inland. There is also evidence of another weak cold front in Oregon this afternoon, and together with any thunderstorms that form there, may send gusty northwest winds into the Snake Basin again this evening. Models show a more distinct cold front moving eastward across our CWA Sunday morning with showers and thunderstorms.
Small height rises over central NE today as a 500 hPa ridge builds overhead with a weak mid-level westerly flow aloft. Slightly warmer air mass compared to yesterday. Overnight, the 500 hPa ridge shifts east and flattens over central NE as a longwave trough over the western CONUS deepens.
Mid lvl thermal ridge has weakened slightly over the past 24hrs, but remains quite strong with H70 temps arnd 10C. The Bermuda ridge axis was positioned just south of the nrn Bahamas/Lake-O region this mrng in response to a low amp short wave trof pushing off the mid Atlc/New England coast. Ridge should rebuild thru the day as the trof lifts into the Atlc. Bermuda Ridge axis located just south of the Nrn Bahamas/Lake-O Region will generate a light to gentle W/SW breeze thru midday.
1223 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016 Weak cold front sinking very slowly south across forecast area early this morning.
A lingering upper level trough axis extended N-S across the forecast area early this morning with the associated upper level low meandering across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A couple of short wave troughs were rotating in the proximity of this trough axis. one pushing southward across south Ga on the west side of the trough. and the other short wave trough pivoting northward from central Florida around the east side of the upper level vortex. Precip across Florida is expected to move offshore into the evening with a chance of lingering showers/isolated tstorms this evening near the Altamaha River basin as low level trough north of the area deepens farther south.
The airmass will become pretty unstable across the region each day, but no noticeable surface boundary and amplifying ridge axis aloft this model run would limit thunderstorm chances.
Per latest water-vapor channel imagery and model objective analysis, mid-level high is centered over New Mexico and ridges out to the SE toward Deep South Texas.
With the best lift associated with a departing trough of low pressure now well to the east of the area, and with now showers having formed anywhere in or near the forecast, decided to go ahead and kill precipitation chances for the rest of today. They were occurring ahead of a cold front that extended from northern OH to southern IL early this morning. A bubble of high pressure passing by to our north will then maintain dry weather through Sunday, and bring a slightly less humid air mass.
Today the area will be under ridging aloft, likely keeping most of the day dry. Heat index values in these warmer locations could approach 100 for a few hours Sunday afternoon.
Farther inland, some areas could climb into the low 80s this afternoon. There is currently fog ongoing over northern MN under this high, and it appears that fog development may also be favored late tonight over my western and southern areas, and I have therefore added a mention for such in the forecast.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler across the northern half of the state through the short term with southern areas seeing little reprieve from the heat.
The pattern aloft early this morning features a ridge over Mexico that stretches into the Gulf of Mexico and a low spinning to the northeast of Florida. At the surface, the ridge axis remains over the south-central peninsula, with a light flow in place.
Upper air analysis last evening showed the subtropical ridge firmly in place over the southern part of the country. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the central Gulf and winds were from the southeast. Little change is expected today and tonight with the upper level ridge remaining in place.
959 AM EDT Sat Jul 9 2016 A cold front will cross the region today.
236 PM EDT Sat Jul 9 2016 A cold front will cross the region this afternoon and evening.
A low pressure system off the Washington coast will continue moving southeast. Sunday morning, the upper Low will be over northwest Oregon.
215 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 High pressure off the Southeast coast will keep hot conditions across the area today. A cold front crosses the area tonight.
1239 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016 High pressure ridge building into the region, with little more than cirrus over most of Central Illinois this morning. Cooler and drier air moving in, resulting in pleasant conditions and lower humidity than the past few days. A cooler and less humid airmass will settle southward into central Illinois today, courtesy of 1016mb high pressure over the Upper Midwest. A weak trough of low pressure analyzed on 07z/2am surface map extending across southern Michigan/Wisconsin will drop southeastward, triggering scattered clouds and perhaps even a few sprinkles across northeast Illinois into northern Indiana. Elsewhere skies are expected to remain mostly sunny with afternoon high temperatures topping out in the lower to middle 80s.
305 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 A ridge of high pressure will bring dry and pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky through the rest of the weekend. Temperatures through tomorrow should run right about normal for this time of year, with lows in the low to mid 60s the next two nights and highs in the low to mid 80s on Sunday.
/Tonight/ Area of high pressure across the state will continue to slide east tonight, with return flow across the central plains and into western Iowa overnight. Baroclinic zone that has been situated just to the west of the CWA will push east into the state tonight ahead of a developing area of low pressure along the western high plains. Otherwise only made some small adjustments to the going pops to start a bit later, and adjusted temps a bit warmer overnight.
1044 AM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016 High pressure will remain overhead today though the ridge axis will shift eastward through the day. Low dewpoints and precipitable water will keep dry conditions in place while a closed low approaches from the west. This closed low will cause the surface gradient to tighten today creating critical fire weather conditions. However, the bigger concern will be Sunday as the low continues its eastward trek and really tightens that pressure gradient. Temperatures will run a few degrees warmer than normal.
357 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 High pressure will continue to build into the region, bringing drier air and slightly cooler temperatures. Overnight lows in the lower 60s to upper 50s, with the cooler temperatures closer to the center of the ridge in the NW. Slightly warmer temperatures near 80 to lower 80s.
An upper low off Vancouver Island early this morning will shift to the Oregon coast by this evening.
Though the high pressure ridge will start to build in again from the west, several models keep us on the eastern fringe of it, allowing for some slight NW flow to exist this afternoon and evening. It should be noted, one solution, the GFS, builds the ridge slightly too far east and puts us in northerly flow, thus wiping out all chance of rain. The upper level ridge centered to our west today will expand eastward Sunday as an upper level trough moves over the western states. The upper level ridge will then join with the Bermuda high to generate flat ridging across the southern tier of the CONUS toward the middle of the week, a pattern that will remain relatively unchanged through the rest of the week.
A broad upper level ridge will move east across the central and southern plains Today and Tonight. Surface dewpoints will remain in the lower to mid 70s through the afternoon hours which will cause heat indices to rise into the mid 90s to around 100 degrees.
/Today/ High pressure in place both aloft and at the surface will yield a quiet day weather-wise. Dewpoints will remain in the lower to mid 60s so relative humidity will again be very tolerable.
202 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 Cooler and drier air will build into the region this afternoon and evening with partly sunny skies.
Nam shows an upper level trough over the Rockies and a broad ridge over the central U. This trough moves very slowly to the east and is in the northern plains by 00z Wed. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the upper Great Lakes 12z Wed which remains through 12z Fri. The trough then broadens out on Sat. High pressure will result in VFR conditions.
The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features a trough across the northeastern CONUS, which has placed the Ohio Valley within northwesterly flow aloft. With the boundary pushing south, high pressure has built into the region today. The front will remain to the south of the region Sunday into Sunday night as high pressure shifts to the north of the region. Look for highs in the middle 80s and lows tonight and Sunday night in the low to mid 60s.
1111 AM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016 H5 ridge is the dominant mid-upper level feature across the Rockies and Plains regions, with a trough over the Great Lakes and a stronger upper low over the Pacific Northwest. Today-Sunday: H5 ridge continues to amplify with rising heights and increasing temps aloft. The trough in the Pacific Northwest shifts east and deepens over the next few days with SW flow slowly amplifying over the rockies and lee trough deepening down stream in response to increasing mid to upper level jet stream/cross mountain flow. At the same time instability and weakening CAP near trough axis along CO border could still support thunderstorm development, which could then be carried northeast with mean wind.
254 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016 Northwest flow remains across the TN Valley, as an upper level low moves across the Great Lakes and strong upper level ridging builds to our west. At the surface, a cold front extended from New England, southwestward into the Ohio and central MS Valley. The cold front will remain over the area during the day Sunday, before lifting northward overnight.
1129 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 High pressure off the Southeast coast will keep hot conditions across the area today. A cold front crosses the area tonight.
1058 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016 High pressure ridge building into the region, with little more than cirrus over most of Central Illinois this morning. Cooler and drier air moving in, resulting in pleasant conditions and lower humidity than the past few days. A cooler and less humid airmass will settle southward into central Illinois today, courtesy of 1016mb high pressure over the Upper Midwest. A weak trough of low pressure analyzed on 07z/2am surface map extending across southern Michigan/Wisconsin will drop southeastward, triggering scattered clouds and perhaps even a few sprinkles across northeast Illinois into northern Indiana. Elsewhere skies are expected to remain mostly sunny with afternoon high temperatures topping out in the lower to middle 80s.
We actually have an upper level ridge building into the central plains today, which generally supports dry and warmer conditions. The expected height rises associated with the strengthening ridge should push our high temperatures several degrees warmer than yesterday.
A weak, poorly defined cold front was just north of the Interstate 64 corridor early this morning. Slightly cooler and drier air will arrive from the north, especially in southwest IN. On Sunday, a weak low-level ridge will pass across the forecast area.
06Z surface data has high pressure over the upper Midwest with a frontal boundary from the Ohio Valley into northern Kansas. Quiet and dry conditions will be seen today and tonight as high pressure slowly moves through the Midwest.
207 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016 The cold front that was expected to stall across southern Missouri or northern Arkansas last night actually pushed all the way to southern Arkansas before stalling. Models slowly bring the upper level ridge to the east Sunday with most of the rain chances remaining to the south. There will be a chance for a summer time afternoon showers or storms underneath the ridge as southerly winds continue to bring moisture into the area.
1249 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 Hydro A few isolated showers are possible this morning into the early afternoon across Central Lower Michigan over interior portions of the Lower Peninsula. Otherwise today will be partly sunny with cooler than normal temperatures in the 70s.
Temperatures will rebound during the work week as high pressure returns. Central California remains in a southwest to west flow, between a frontal system moving into the Pacific Northwest/Northern California, and an upper ridge stretching across Baja. The trough is progged to dig slightly southward as the upper low swings through the northwest states today and Sunday. Sunday will see afternoon highs down to around 5-10 degrees below average as the trough continues inland, providing additional synoptic cooling along with enhanced onshore flow. Winds will increase more significantly as well on Sunday as the trough moves through the region.
704 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016 Weak cold front sinking very slowly south across forecast area early this morning.
A cold front over IN will push into the region today and move through during the morning into the early afternoon. High pressure will be building into the region in the wake of this front today into tonight and will remain over the area through Sunday. Upper level ridging will then start to build in from the west on Sunday. Dewpoints will drop as the front moves through into the lower to mid 60s.
500 mb high pressure centered over New Mexico will continue to be the dominant force over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the short term forecast period, ensuring a continuation of the ongoing hot and dry weather pattern.
Coolest temps in the 80s look to be over far Eastern Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas in response to ongoing precip to the low 90s possible over locations that have remained mostly dry through the morning hours.
An ill-defined cold front is located across South Missouri into West Kentucky. although any breaks in cloud cover could result in a quick surge into the low 90s. The front will likely remain stalled over West Tennessee and East Arkansas through Sunday keeping rain/thunderstorm chances enhanced and temperatures slightly cooler than we have see lately.
234 PM EDT Sat Jul 9 2016 A cold front will cross the region this afternoon and evening.
1036 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016 A cold front will sink into the area today bringing in drier air on the northern side of the boundary. Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 72 91 71 / 50 30 30 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 69 88 68 / 50 20 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 86 69 89 68 / 30 20 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 64 86 64 / 20 10 10 0.