Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Current synoptic pattern across the CONUS features two upper level troughs in the western US, one near the CA/NV border and another across the Pacific NW states, with the upper low associated with the remnants of Irma continuing to move up into the northeastern US and weaken. Southerly low level flow has taken hold across south central Texas, and has ushered in warmer temperatures and an increase in moisture. The upper ridge across the southwestern US and northern Mexico will continue eastward into central Texas. Overnight tonight will largely be a repeat of the previous night, with morning low stratus that should mix out by late morning or early afternoon with temperatures Friday afternoon a few degrees cooler than today.
108 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017 A few showers are possible today with the remnant upper level low of Irma. Mainly dry and warmer weather is expected under high pressure Friday through the weekend. Isolated to scattered showers are expected today with a crossing upper level low, the remnants of Irma. The showers should decrease in coverage by late afternoon as the low opens into a trough, and the trough axis moves E into wrn PA.
248 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017 Isolated showers should end as an upper level low exits this evening. High pressure should result in mainly dry and warmer weather through the weekend. Isolated to scattered showers should end this evening as an upper low slowly exits E. The high should result in mainly dry weather for most of the area, though areas in the higher terrain E-SE of PIT could see an isolated afternoon shower in closer proximity to the weak trough.
Friday will start a dry streak for Middle TN as a high pressure ridge builds into the region.
This summer like pattern will promote southerly flow in the low levels with nocturnal LLJ formation through the plains nightly over the next few days.
A Pacific Northwest upper-level trough with significant moisture moves over Montana tonight and Friday to keep the rain going. The air behind the cold front, which is now well to the south of our CWA, continues cool. So with widespread overcast, maximum temperatures will be cooler than those of today - to around 20 degrees below normal. Lows will fall into the lower 40s and upper 30s. With continuous northerly breeze and lower heights, highs will reach into the lower 50s to upper 40s.
The upper level trough over Western Canada continues to slowly settle southward with the trough axis just off the Pacific Northwest coast. Temperatures will be even cooler today with highs only in the lower 70s around the Lower Columbia Basin and 60s in the mountains.
Thermal profiles aloft continue to warm, and today should be 1 to 2C warmer than yesterday.
This storm is looking more like a fall mid latitude cyclone with the strong dynamics and wind.
Quiet weather is expected tonight into Friday, as a 500 mb ridge axis shifts slowly to the east of the area. Warm temperatures are expected to continue, with onshore winds keeping lakeshore areas cooler Friday afternoon.
With the northwest portion of the CWA behind the cold front, did lower highs a few degrees. A wave of low pressure is moving northeast along the front early this morning with upper level support as well.
High pressure remains centered across much of Michigan and Wisconsin early this morning. Eastern edge of a warm front has lifted into Lake Superior. attached to low pressure developing over the Northern Plains. This warm front will stay north of our CWA thru tonight. Remnants of Hurricane Irma continue to press well off to our east through the end of the work week while troughing digs across the western third of the CONUS. As a result, northern Michigan lies between the two systems with increasing ridging/unseasonably high heights aloft.
With the trough pushing in from the west and the ridge moving east of the area, we've seen gusty winds and a few degrees of cooling today. Most model guidance and the official NHC track slowly draws her northward around the influence of the ridge that is in the process of reconsolidating over portions of north central Mexico and southwest Texas.
Ridging aloft and a mid level thermal ridge stretching from the Big Bend to the Central Plains will send temperatures soaring this afternoon.
1233 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 Latest water vapor satellite imagery indicates upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia/Alberta Canada and upper level ridge over the central High Plains. Latest 07z surface analysis shows ridge over the Ohio River valley and latest metars indicated patchy dense fog over the favored areas of central Wisconsin and the Wisconsin River valley. Upper level ridge begins to amplify over the central United States today and allows warmer air aloft to advect into the forecast area.
Issued by National Weather Service AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 347 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017 Isolated showers are forming late this afternoon over the lower Keys. The isolated showers forming this afternoon over the Lower Keys should dissipate early evening. Flow will turn east to northeast tonight and a lower precipitable water airmass, currently over the Bahamas, will advect westward into the Keys while a ridge aloft moves over the area.
246 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 18Z surface data has high pressure over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley with low pressure along the SD/NE border west of KYKN.
329 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017 A ridge of high pressure will remain in place through the upcoming weekend.
343 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017 The upper level trough over the Ohio Valley will continue to lift northeastward into New England overnight.
Do expect mainly clear skies the next 24 hours as an upper ridge builds into the area. Britt Quiet and unseasonably warm weather conditions are expected on Fri/Sat before an approaching cold front brings a chance of SHRA/TSRA to MO/IL. The cut-off low which was previously located off the CA coast has moved inland over the last 24hrs in response to an approaching upstream trough. Together, these features will induce surface cyclogenesis over the plains, and the resulting response in the surface wind field will bring a noticeably warmer and more moist air mass into MO/IL on Fri/Sat. By Sat night, the cold front associated with the northeastward- moving low pressure system will approach MO/IL from the northwest.
Convection currently developing along seabreezes and several outflow boundaries should eventually become focused across the interior peninsula as a mid-level ridge axis drifting nwwd into the region will lead to weaker steering currents compared to yesterday. /issued 401 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017/ Latest surface analysis shows high pressure sitting stagnant over the southeast CONUS.
/issued 246 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017/ Weak trough above the surface allowing for low-level cumulus across the region early this afternoon specifically across south- central Arkansas, north Louisiana, and deep east Texas. Temperatures currently in the low to mid 80s and forecast to climb to around 90 late this afternoon. A gradual warming trend will continue through the weekend as the upper-level ridge strengthens across the region.
159 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will diminish from west to east today as a weak low pressure system exits the area. High pressure will return through the day Friday, and reestablish itself across the Eastern Great Lakes region this weekend with plenty of sunshine and comfortable warm afternoon temperatures. An upper level low will weaken as it tracks across the region. Ridging starts to build across the region Friday, with just enough lingering low-level moisture to pop a few isolated showers across the inland higher terrain. The one exception might be a stray afternoon shower well inland/over the higher terrain toward the PA border and/or near the Western Finger Lakes region.
Clouds will exit for the weekend with some chilly mornings expected and freezing temperatures possible for colder pockets in the mountain valleys.
305 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 An area of low pressure is currently located over south central SD with a cold front just north of Watertown. The main upper level trough is located over the desert southwest. This trough will lift northward tonight which will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms for locations along and west of the Missouri Valley by Friday morning. If the dry slot does develop and skies clear off, then highs in our eastern CWA will be warmer than expected.
Issued by National Weather Service HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 350 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 Warm and dry across the region this afternoon with S-SE winds and weak upper level ridging shifting in from the west as it weakens.
There will be a few weak short wave troughs embedded in the flow, but these troughs will do nothing more than bring a few patches of high clouds. Dry weather conditions will continue as an upper level ridge axis slides east over the area.
352 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 The surface front/trough is sitting off to the northwest of the forecast area over northern/west-central Nebraska. Winds will really increase during the day tomorrow as lee troughing deepens.
1156 AM MDT Thu Sep 14 2017 Latest upper level analysis shows an upper trough swinging across southwestern Canada and into the northwestern CONUS which is turning the upper flow over the forecast area from zonal to southwesterly. At the surface, low pressure is centered over South Dakota. Beginning today and continuing into the weekend, moist and cooler air will move into the region as the upper trough approaches and swings across the northern plains.
/Tonight through Friday/ Upper ridging will be continuing to build across the eastern half of the country as a western trof deepens into Friday.
352 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 (Tonight and Friday) After record-setting heat today, look for cooler temperatures to return to West Central Texas, during the next 24 hours. However, models indicate highs tomorrow will be cooler than today, as the eastward expansion, of a thermal ridge at 850 mb to our west, will be limited by cooler air at that level tomorrow afternoon. Possible Rain and Cooler Temperatures. Cooler temperatures, at 850 mb, along with varying cloud cover, will help keep afternoon highs, mainly in the 90 to 95 range.
Weak area of high pressure extends from lower MI southward into the lower Mississippi Valley.
451 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 A large scale trough over the western U. and building upper level ridge over the eastern U.
This will maintain lee troughing and southerly flow.
113 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 Low pressure moving from Ohio to Pennsylvania will continue dragging our clouds out of the area. By tmrw morning, the Low and its associated wave aloft will have opened up and flattened out as it lifts through the remainder of the upper Ohio river valley and rounds its way across the New England coast, with our area seeing upper height recovery and regenerating lower tropospheric southerlies. Thus commences a warmup through the remainder of the short term forecast, as we see daily highs rise to/exceed seasonal norms in the lower 80s. The upper level pattern during this time will be dominated by a ridge extending from the Great Lakes into the Gulf Coast states. The ridge should keep most of the active weather to the northwest of the forecast area.
The 12 UTC global suites are in good agreement on widespread rainfall developing across the west tonight, into the far north central late with the leading impulses ahead of the long wave western CONUS trough.
Low temperatures tonight will drop into the mid 50s, with warmer high temperatures on Friday into the 75 to 80 degree range.
Positively tilted upper ridge will remain over northern Michigan as remnants of Irma lift into the Northeast. Not much of a pattern change expected through Friday, though 500mb heights over northern Michigan will continue to rise as the heart of the ridge builds over the region.
246 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 Weak trough above the surface allowing for low-level cumulus across the region early this afternoon specifically across south- central Arkansas, north Louisiana, and deep east Texas. Temperatures currently in the low to mid 80s and forecast to climb to around 90 late this afternoon. A gradual warming trend will continue through the weekend as the upper-level ridge strengthens across the region.
The cool and wet weather pattern with the main low pressure system taking shape along the Washington/Oregon coast this afternoon.
Dry conditions will continue area wide through the overnight hours with surface ridging centered over the Appalachians. Lows will be in the low/mid 60s.
1223 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 Currently VFR at all terminals as the low clouds and patchy morning fog have mixed out. Southerly lower level flow has returned to South Central Texas as upper level troughs over southern California and Pacific Northwest have lowered surface pressures in the Plains.
With clouds and developing rain temperatures will be much cooler.
The warmer weather returns tonight. A deepening longwave trof across the western states will result in increasingly southwesterly flow across our region through the weekend.
High pressure will result in mainly dry and warmer weather through the weekend. Showers have largely ended across the forecast area with only a few isolated areas of light rain apparent on radar as an upper low exits to the east. The high should result in mainly dry weather for most of the area, though areas in the higher terrain E-SE of PIT could see an isolated afternoon shower in closer proximity to the weak trough.
237 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 An upper trough is currently moving over the Pacific Northwest and will combine with an upper low over southern Nevada on Friday. Upper ridging is over West Texas and southeast New Mexico with west to northwest flow aloft. The upper trough over the western part of the country broadens on Friday and starts to increase upper lift over the region.
Pacific northwest upper trough phases with the southern stream low by Friday morning with an expansive broad trough across the western conus.
The circulation will progress further eastward throughout today as a weak upper ridge takes over. Otherwise, gorgeous weather is in the forecast heading into the weekend with the upper ridge in place.
High pressure at the sfc remains anchored just to the SW of the CWFA, with generally light and variable winds in place across the region. Lows will be able to warm slightly from previous nights, into the lower 60s. The upper low weakens and moves off the northeast coast as ridging aloft starts to build in. The high pressure and drier air may be too strong to overcome in areas north of that. Temps will continue to be on the rise, in the lower to middle 80s, with both the NAM/GFS indicating afternoon CAPE values around 1500 J/KG and a mid level cap breaking.
Quiet weather is expected tonight into Friday, as a 500 mb ridge axis shifts slowly to the east of the area. Lowered the lows for tonight a little from the blended consensus short term models, with light winds and mostly clear skies expected. Warm temperatures are expected to continue Friday, with onshore winds keeping lakeshore areas cooler during the afternoon.
Currently monitoring a developing low pressure system that will be dropping southward into the central Idaho mountains tonight. Models show batch of afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms progressing east tonight ahead of a cold front. Expect drier air to work into the area behind the cold front for a time. As the low pressure system strengthens, expect moisture to work back into the central Idaho mountains from Montana late tonight and early Friday morning. Expect precipitation to pick up during the day on Friday across the central mountains as the low matures and moves through the mountains. By Friday night, the low will move through the upper Snake highlands bringing lowering snow levels and a batch of wrap around precipitation through with it.
218 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest with a ridge axis over the Central Plains. Surface analysis shows a weak area of low pressure along the Nebraska/South Dakota border with a boundary extending to the northeast into northeast Minnesota. The aforementioned ridge axis over the Central Plains will move through the area today with the surface pressure gradient tightening ahead of the low pressure system. The increasing southerly winds will bring in some warmer air, including 925 mb temperatures in the 22 to 28 C range, leading to well above normal high temperatures in the 80s to possibly 90 degrees in a few spots.
For Friday, daytime heating/vertical mixing in the boundary layer will keep winds gusty across our area, while South winds will continue to bring in unseasonably warmer air with temperatures well in the lower to mid 90s. The winds, warm temperatures, and RH values in the lower 30s will maintain elevated fire weather conditons for Friday as well. A deepening trough of low pressure across the Western U.
433 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017 Widely scattered showers and will end from northwest to southeast this evening as weak low pressure exits the area. High pressure will then return on Friday and remain in place across our region through the weekend. Ridging starts to build across the region Friday, with just enough lingering low-level moisture to pop a few isolated showers across the inland higher terrain. The one exception might be a stray afternoon shower well inland/over the higher terrain toward the PA border and/or near the Western Finger Lakes region.
Weak high pressure will hold across the area tonight into the weekend with Jose well off the coast.
Light and variable to calm winds dominated Central IL this morning under a weak high pressure ridge axis. The western ridge drifts east somewhat, warming the midlevels a couple of degrees to 17-19C at 850mb.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night):Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will continue to be influenced by 500 mb high pressure, initially over northwestern and northern Mexico, and then building west from the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low/trough in the Pacific northwest, continuing to develop/sharpen up, as it is forecast to migrate into the northern rockies tonight. As the upper low and associated trough edge closer tonight, widespread rainshowers will commence in the west as synoptic scale ascent increases, and overlaps with low level frontogenetical forcing per NAM/GFS QG.
showers and thunderstorms have developed over the higher terrain early this afternoon and will continue to spread east into this evening. Increasing southwest flow aloft will allow for shower and thunderstorms to push off the higher terrain and across the Plains. A dusting of snow is possible across the higher peaks of the Continental Divide, above 12000 feet. This will enhance southwest flow aloft across the region and promote mixing in the lower levels. Temperatures will remain hot with upper 80s to lower 90s across the lower elevations.
140 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017 High pressure pulls away from the region while low pressure slowly moves east over the course of the next 4 days.
240 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017 A weak cold front will push down from the north and stall across the area this evening. High pressure will be over the region on Friday.
Early this morning, light rain showers and patches of drizzle continue on the back side of a departing upper low. In places where there are breaks in the low cloud deck, some of the fog could become patchy dense fog. High temps should rebound into the low to mid 70s today.
High pressure will build into the Mid Atlantic for the weekend.
This is a far cry from temperatures just 24 hours ago that were some 10-15 degrees cooler. Lows tomorrow morning will fall into the 59-63F range (with the cooler values mainly in Srn Middle TN).
Temperatures this hour were running about fifteen degrees warmer than this time yesterday. with current readings in the low to mid 80s.
140 PM MST Thu Sep 14 2017 A cold front will continue to sweep through the area tonight resulting in much cooler autumn like temperatures this weekend. A compact, yet mature cyclone near KLAS has obtained a negative tilt per objective analysis as jet streak energy lifts from the basal portion of the circulation. Within the lower boundary layer, a cold/dry front has pushed into Maricopa County per observational data with both satellite and ground sensors depicting a significantly deep, dry airmass now lagging the actual wind shift. Given the abrupt change in airmass contradictory to recent biases, have based much of the forecast on raw guidance blends and towards the lower end of the guidance envelope.
The upper ridge extending from northern Mexico into the central high plains moves east today through tonight and is replaced by a short wave trough lifting northeast through the central Rockies on Friday ahead of a larger scale trough deepening over the intermountain region late Friday into Friday night.
The remnant upper low associated with Irma is located south of the Great Lakes with associated troughing extending southwest through the Ohio River Valley and further south into the western Gulf of Mexico. Upper ridging extends northeast from near the Bahamas, which will help keep Hurricane Jose well out into the western Atlantic.
312 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 This afternoon, water vapor imagery showed increasing cloud cover across the Pacific Northwest as a mid-level trough continues to dive southward over the western U. The presence of the low-level jet over central KS could support isentropic upglide to help produce some isolated showers and thunderstorms overnight into Friday morning. However, if the increased cloud cover from the AM showers lingers into the afternoon, then high temperatures may be a couple of degrees cooler across north central KS.
215 PM MDT Thu Sep 14 2017 Current surface map shows cold front through south central South Dakota into southwest Nebraska. Water vapor places deep trof along the west coast. Temperatures marginally cold enough for some light snow in the higher elevations of the Black Hills with a mix possible for portions of northeast Wyoming.
The rest of the weekend continues to look warm and dry, as strong ridging builds aloft up from the northwest Gulf of Mexico.
High pressure will be in control with ridging developing across the Eastern CONUS leading to mostly clear conditions with only some afternoon cumulus expected. Ridging aloft keeps warm temperatures across the forecast area through for the extended part of the forecast.
/issued 1003 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017/ Warming trend to continue today as surface winds become southerly across the region and weak upper-level trough is replaced by ridging from the west.
200 PM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017 A trough of low pressure will bring unseasonably cool weather through Friday along with patchy morning drizzle or light showers on mainly the coastal mountain slopes and foothills.
/issued 410 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017/ The upper level ridge axis currently extending from southern NM into southeastern CO will shift east into our CWA today, as an upper level low and associated trough axis move northeast near the four corners region. With the ridge axis moving into our area, continued sinking, drying air, along with mainly sunny skies will result in another hot day, with near record temperatures at Abilene and San Angelo. Although the GFS shows a few isolated showers along our western/northwestern counties by late afternoon, think the sinking air within the ridge will suppress convection enough to keep any showers from affecting our area.
315 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 With upper ridge overhead and south winds at surface, will have dry and warmer weather for the last part of the work week. As for any possible fog late tonight, should not be a problem as there was plenty of mixing during the day today to dry out the lower levels.
An upper trough will remain anchored across the Great Basin in the western U.