Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Northwest winds have come below criteria values for the High Wind Warning in the wake of the cold front that moved across the area this afternoon. As a result, the High Wind Warning has been cancelled. Overview: A broad upper level trough /cyclonic flow aloft/ will prevail over the region in this period. A relatively deep (~985 mb) albeit somewhat broad mid-latitude cyclone will weaken and progress east toward the Mississippi river valley tonight and Wed.
345 AM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Discussion - Scattered showers with isolated storms this morning The warm front continues to lift northward with underwhelming convection overnight into Wednesday morning. There is some shear, especially with the low level jet. This looks to have a more bowing structure of Showers and thunderstorms and will be more widespread moving across the Lower Peninsula. - Gusty winds Thursday Michigan will see the arrival of a cold frontal rain band overnight into Thursday.
308 AM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Warmer today with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. A strong cold front Wednesday night into Thursday morning brings more showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Slightly warmer but still chilly today, with the warming trend beginning in earnest tomorrow. Slightly warmer but still chilly today, with warming trend beginning in earnest tomorrow. Snow could mix with or change over to rain showers in the lower elevation tomorrow as temps and snow levels begin to rise. Warmer tomorrow with highs in the mid 40s to 50s, with a few lower 60s in northern Nye.
Breezy, dry and warmer conditions then develop for the rest of the week and into the weekend. With clear skies and much lighter winds across the region, temperatures tonight are on track to be 10-15 degrees below average for this time of year, translating to single digits to teens in the high country and mid to upper 20s for the lower valleys. As a longwave trough moves eastward, zonal flow sets up across the Southwest for the next few days.
Adjusted top down grids a few degrees cooler than NBM and it reflects the ground truth fairly well.
/Today through Thursday/ A surface front and upper-trough will swing east across the region today. All of the ArkLaTex is covered in a severe weather threat with the highest risk being across north Louisiana into south-central Arkansas.
103 AM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Warmer air will filter into the region with the passage of the warm front. Showers and thunderstorms will arrive on Wednesday with the approach of a cold front. Current conditions across the forecast area feature mainly clear skies ahead of a warm front beginning to lift north through the area. Expect warmer than normal lows through dawn. The mentioned front will begin to push through the Upper OH Valley through Thursday morning but strong ridging in the mid levels extending from the southeast CONUS will effectively inhibit the progressing of the trough developing a blocking type pattern with another upper low developing over the Great Lakes into the start of the weekend. Showers should finally exit the area by midday Thursday with weak high pressure nosing in from the southwest.
For tonight, a warm front will lift north through area in response to deepening southwest flow and upstream height falls. A combination of an EML cap overspreading from the west, and little in the way of mid-upper support, makes for rather bleak rain chances along and north of the warm front. Attention mid afternoon on Wednesday through Wednesday evening will then turn to the severe risk as the main negatively tilted upper trough and cyclonically curved 110 kt mid level jet force a strong cold front through the area. The extent of the severe threat remains unclear however as ongoing rain/clouds likely limit instability and organization in advance of the cold front, especially over eastern portions of the forecast area. Dry and cooler post-frontal airmass will settle in for Thursday with the main forecast uncertainty being wind gust potential.
135 AM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Retreating high pressure will shift to the East Coast overnight. On Thursday morning, the aforementioned (rather large) low will be positioned over northeastern Minnesota with its associated cold front extending from Ontario down through the Appalachian mountains continuing through the Louisiana coast into the Gulf of Mexico.
With most unstable CAPE getting well above 2500 j/kg and the low level jet increasing to 40 to 50 kt, a significant damaging wind, large hail, and strong tornado threat should develop over the Delta region and persist across the entire area well into the evening. NWP guidance generally indicates an impressive prefrontal trough may develop ahead of the cold front, especially along the Hwy 82 corridor, and this could be a greater area of focus for supercell activity near the end of the afternoon and going into the early evening. Deep convection should move quickly out of the area after midnight as the cold front pushes through. /EC/ Thursday: The cold front will push south of the area with a substantially drier airmass moving in during the day.
522 AM MDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over far southwest MN, with high pressure over southwest Canada. Cold front is well south and east of the region, with chilly air in place, especially for mid April. As the upper low tracks east near the SD/ND border this morning and into southeast ND later this afternoon. The stacked low pressure system over eastern ND late tonight will start to accelerate east of the region on Thursday, with any lingering light snow or flurries across northern areas likely ending early in the day. It will only be slightly warmer, with temps remaining well below average levels.
High pressure will build into the region the remainder of the week resulting in widespread dry weather and gradually warming temperatures.
635 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 (Today) A cold front has entered northeast Oklahoma early this morning and is approaching the Interstate 44 corridor at this time.
301 AM MDT Wed Apr 13 2022 The trough continues into the Dakotas this morning, slowly releasing its grip on WY weather. Most snowfall has ended, but will likely return for the western mountains starting this afternoon, due to the combination of convective bands setting up off the higher elevations, and moisture sweeping in from the west.
513 AM MDT Wed Apr 13 2022 The trough continues into the Dakotas this morning, slowly releasing its grip on WY weather. Most snowfall has ended, but will likely return for the western mountains starting this afternoon, due to the combination of convective bands setting up off the higher elevations, and moisture sweeping in from the west.
650 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 (Today and tonight) Cold front continues to progress southward this morning, with shower and thunderstorm activity so far mainly confined to Kansas outside of some earlier activity across Woods/Alfalfa counties. With a very dry airmass remaining in place this will help temperatures drop quickly tonight, with some areas across northern/western Oklahoma approaching the freezing mark in some of the usual colder locations. Given some remaining uncertainty regarding the coverage of freezing temperatures will opt to allow the day shift to continue to refine the forecast and decide on any freeze products.
920 AM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Warm conditions will prevail ahead of a cold front, which may bring isolated severe thunderstorms late Thursday.
655 AM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Warm conditions will prevail ahead of a cold front, which may bring isolated severe thunderstorms late Thursday.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 56 71 47 78 / 20 80 40 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 56 69 44 76 / 20 70 50 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 80 55 69 44 75 / 20 80 40 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 56 66 40 73 / 30 60 70 0 0 TN.
653 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 A cold front near the northwest corner of Arkansas will move through the state today with showers and thunderstorms. Today Through Wednesday Night An upper low over the northern Plains continues to move east. This upper low will move into the Midwest tonight as an upper ridge builds over the east coast. Warm and moist air will continue filtering into Arkansas today ahead of an approaching cold front. The warm and moist air ahead of the cold front will destabilize the atmosphere again this afternoon for more showers and thunderstorms.
1002 AM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022 High pressure continues to dominate the area today as moisture increases day to day.
606 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Failed to mention in the primary discussion, the potential for a freezing temperatures across northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas Tonight. Anticipate Lows to dip below freezing early Thursday morning, remaining so for several hours in some locations.
As the cold front continues on its way through the region today, more rainfall and possible thunderstorms are anticipated develop with the ample frontogenetic forcing. The higher chances remaining east of the east of the Mississippi River. A deepening portion of the low pressure system moves into North Dakota this afternoon with the upper-level wave catching up overnight becoming nearly stacked. Thursday Cold air advection in wake of the cold front will lead to steepening near surface lapse rates to over 9 C/km.
Mid level trough axis was over the region at this time. The low RH air combined with west-northwest wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph and temps increasing into the 40s and 50s will cause RED FLAG conditions to develop over the I-25 corridor around noontime, with the critical fire weather conditions pushing east by early to mid afternoon. High temperatures will be much warmer than Wednesday with mid-50s over the valleys and mid-high 60s over the plains.
Low pressure off the west coast is sending spokes of energy into the Pacific Northwest, and one of these spokes is now forecast to reach central Idaho this afternoon. The highest probabilities for measurable snow are forecast to be south of Highway 12 in Idaho County. Model clusters and ensemble means are coming into much better agreement for the low pressure system off the west coast to tap into an atmospheric river and bring widespread precipitation to central Idaho and western Montana during this weekend.
There are chances for snow this weekend, while temperatures trend gradually warmer. Cloud cover begins to thin tonight, as we find our region positioned under a col region with cut-off lows to the east and west.
Temperatures will climb some, but not much, and only reach the low 20s at best. tonight looks to be the coldest night of this low- temperatures stretch, with all lows dropping into the single digits, and possibly getting into the negatives. Although we will start to warm up after, it will be very gradual, and we still won't see temperatures return to above freezing until this weekend.
1052 AM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022 KBYX radar is detecting a persistent ribbon of showers streaming from the Straits of Florida northwestward towards the Lower Keys. Given these factors, did decide to modestly raise measurable rain chances for the Lower Keys through this afternoon, with lower rain chances still expected in the vicinity of the Middle and Upper Keys due to weaker confluence and a modestly drier environment. From synopsis, high pressure over the west central Atlantic will result in moderate to fresh east to southeast breezes through tonight. The area of high pressure will continue slowly slide eastward through the weekend, resulting in slackening east to southeasterly breezes.
By early afternoon, the high mid- April sun angle should allow for melting on roads for most unshaded areas. There are chances for snow this weekend, while temperatures trend gradually warmer. Cloud cover begins to thin tonight, as we find our region positioned under a col region with cut-off lows to the east and west.
A sub-freezing 700-900 mb layer, weak SBCAPE values, and freezing levels around 2500 feet will support periods of hail occurring with heavier shower activity this morning into the afternoon. Otherwise, a compact surface cyclone is forecast to impact the North Coast late this afternoon/evening.
There could be some wrap around moisture Thursday morning along and north of Highway-14 as the low meanders around central Minnesota. Windy conditions continue as the low is slow to depart the Upper Midwest.
603 AM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Warmer today with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. A strong cold front Wednesday night into Thursday morning brings more showers and isolated thunderstorms.
With more of the higher end winds expected over the western and central portions of the area this afternoon, have issued a Wind Advisory Non-Precip Warning, which will be in effect from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM Thursday morning. High temperatures later this afternoon should warm into the lower 80s. Dewpoints up into the lower to near mid 60s this afternoon and evening, especially over our western and central areas will help fuel shower and thunderstorm development later on. A strong cold front that is forecast to bring strong to severe thunderstorms tonight was sweeping eastward across the Central Great Plains, or approximately from eastern Iowa, to far NW Arkansas and the TX/OK Red River.
644 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 The upper low that brought showers and storms to our region will exit the Northern Plains today and leave westerly flow aloft behind it. Thursday morning lows will be near or below freezing.
Short term models continue to indicate an upper level trough becoming negatively tilted as it moves into the Lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening. The large scale forcing associated with the upper level trough will begin to erode the capping inversion by early this afternoon. Between late afternoon and early evening a quasi-linear convective system (QLCS) is expected to develop along the cold front producing another potential for severe thunderstorms into this evening.
755 AM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Aviation - Scattered showers with isolated storms this morning The warm front continues to lift northward with underwhelming convection overnight into Wednesday morning. There is some shear, especially with the low level jet. This looks to have a more bowing structure of Showers and thunderstorms and will be more widespread moving across the Lower Peninsula. - Gusty winds Thursday Michigan will see the arrival of a cold frontal rain band overnight into Thursday.
336 AM MDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over far southwest MN, with high pressure over southwest Canada. Cold front is well south and east of the region, with chilly air in place, especially for mid April. As the upper low tracks east near the SD/ND border this morning and into southeast ND later this afternoon. The stacked low pressure system over eastern ND late tonight will start to accelerate east of the region on Thursday, with any lingering light snow or flurries across northern areas likely ending early in the day. It will only be slightly warmer, with temps remaining well below average levels.
843 AM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Warmer today with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. A strong cold front Wednesday night into Thursday morning brings more showers and isolated thunderstorms.
1017 AM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Warmer air will filter into the region with the passage of the warm front. Showers and thunderstorms will arrive on Wednesday with the approach of a cold front. Quick update to expand morning shower/storm coverage a bit as isolated/scattered development continues ahead of the warm front. The mentioned front will begin to push through the Upper OH Valley through Thursday morning but strong ridging in the mid levels extending from the southeast CONUS will effectively inhibit the progressing of the trough developing a blocking type pattern with another upper low developing over the Great Lakes into the start of the weekend. Showers should finally exit the area by midday Thursday with weak high pressure nosing in from the southwest.
A cooler and drier air mass in place behind the storm that brought gusty winds the last few days. Our weather will be dominated by a broad zonal flow between the typical late season storm track north of our area and high pressure across central and western Mexico.
254 PM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022 A strong cold front tonight into Thursday morning brings more showers and isolated thunderstorms.
A trough extending westward from the low is rotating southward into northwestern South Dakota and northeastern Wyoming. Current surface analysis shows low pressure over far southwest MN, with high pressure over southwest Canada. Cold front is well south and east of the region, with chilly air in place, especially for mid April. As the upper low tracks east near the SD/ND border this morning and into southeast ND later this afternoon. The stacked low pressure system over eastern ND late tonight will start to accelerate east of the region on Thursday, with any lingering light snow or flurries across northern areas likely ending early in the day. It will only be slightly warmer, with temps remaining well below average levels.
A cold start this morning will give way to breezy, dry and warmer conditions later today and through the weekend. The flow never really amplifies into a true ridge, allowing for breezy gradients to stick around, but hghts do rise a bit above average by the weekend.
1215 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 (Today and tonight) A potent upper low will move east across the northern Plains today, with the upper trough shifting east across the central and southern Plains. The upper low will move into western Minnesota by 7 AM Thursday. A cold front was moving southeast across the northwest part of Texas, and extended from just south of Childress to Lubbock at 3 AM. The cold front will quickly move southeast across our area this morning. Temperatures will be cooler today, but full sunshine and a downsloping component to the winds will offset the cold air advection to some extent.
A deep low pressure system is expected to slowly lift across the Dakotas today. The latest CAM data this morning remains fairly consistent with maintaining a slight warm nose from around 900-800 mb this afternoon/early evening which will probably tend to suppress convection prior to the arrival of the main line (when the cap erodes) along the cold front.
Showers and strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across the forecast area today as a cold front moves across the state. A cold front near the northwest corner of Arkansas will move through the state today with showers and thunderstorms. Today Through Wednesday Night An upper low over the northern Plains continues to move east. This upper low will move into the Midwest tonight as an upper ridge builds over the east coast. Warm and moist air will continue filtering into Arkansas today ahead of an approaching cold front. The warm and moist air ahead of the cold front will destabilize the atmosphere again this afternoon for more showers and thunderstorms.
As mentioned before, even with temperatures in the teens and 20s for highs, the higher sun angle and enhanced solar radiation compared to the winter months means snow will melt on roads during the late morning through late afternoon hours before refreezing this evening into the overnight. By early afternoon, the high mid- April sun angle should allow for melting on roads for most unshaded areas. There are chances for snow this weekend, while temperatures trend gradually warmer. Cloud cover begins to thin tonight, as we find our region positioned under a col region with cut-off lows to the east and west.
304 PM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022 A cold front will quickly move through the region tonight with showers and storms likely. High pressure will build in on Thursday, providing mostly sunny skies and cooler temperatures.
315 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 As of 20z, the cold front is on the St. Otherwise, weak high pressure will build in over the lower Mississippi River Valley while the closed low over the Great Lakes Region remains in place through the short term. CAA will be rather weak, so even with lows in the low to mid 30s, the period of any freezing temperatures will be very brief, thus we do not need to issue any freeze headlines at this time. However, it will be rather windy, especially across northern portions of the forecast area, closer to the closed low in the Great Lakes region. By Thursday night, a majority of the deterministic and ensemble models indicate that the closed low will begin to slide to the northeast.
Deep layer shear in this region is on the low side. As cold front in western Illinois pushes east late this afternoon and evening there will be a window where better deep layer shear and some instability could come together in our CWA. Then from 04z to 07z a narrow line of shallow convection develops on the cold front.
1245 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 (Today and tonight) Cold front continues to progress southward this morning, with shower and thunderstorm activity so far mainly confined to Kansas outside of some earlier activity across Woods/Alfalfa counties. With a very dry airmass remaining in place this will help temperatures drop quickly tonight, with some areas across northern/western Oklahoma approaching the freezing mark in some of the usual colder locations. Given some remaining uncertainty regarding the coverage of freezing temperatures will opt to allow the day shift to continue to refine the forecast and decide on any freeze products.
(This evening through Thursday) Late this afternoon, a cold front had pushed into central Texas. Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 40s tonight, and down into the 30s in some low-lying areas. High temperatures will once again reach the low to mid 80s.
3) Much cooler temperatures Wednesday with high temperatures 30 to 40 degrees.
A closed low continues to move across the Dakotas this afternoon through tomorrow morning, bringing gusty winds to our area. Cooler air has also made it to Central Nebraska and North-Central Kansas. Temperatures tonight bottom out in the low to mid-20s. The closed low over the Dakotas continues to push east toward the Great Lakes. High temperatures will be slightly warmer with highs ranging from the low 50s in the north to the low 60s in the south. Lows will range from the low 20s in the north to the low 30s in the south with wind chills in the teens and 20s.
Heading into the overnight period, expect largely quiet conditions to prevail as an upper level low slowly drifts overhead.
115 PM MST Wed Apr 13 2022 High pressure will continue to build into the region this week resulting in widespread dry weather and gradually warming temperatures. Pronounced negative PV anomalies and deep troughing have shifted into the central Conus this afternoon with strong NW flow in its wake covering the Southwest. Through the remainder of the week, negative height anomalies will migrate into the northern tier of the United States while broad, low amplitude ridging and fast quasi- zonal flow envelops the southern states.
Vertically stacked low pressure is nearly stalled over eastern ND this afternoon and not expected to move east until Thursday morning. NW winds will remain strong Thursday as mixing takes place while the low pulls away to our east.
Water vapor loop continues to show the upper low spinning over the Dakotas, with a nice push of dry air just west of the Red River. The low starts to fill in a bit as it moves east, with some good cold air advection on the backside of the system. Surface temps will stay near freezing across central and eastern portions of the CWA this evening, but the cold air advection should drop temps into the mid 20s in the Devils Lake Basin. Therefore, prepare to be stuck with highs below freezing and lows in the teens for several days. IFR to MVFR conditions will continue as low pressure rotates over the area. Most of the lower visibility due to falling and blowing snow has ended, except for around 1SM and KDVL.
140 PM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Warm conditions will prevail ahead of a cold front, which may bring isolated severe thunderstorms late Thursday.