Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure continues across the north Gulf. with ridging aloft over Texas. Weather pattern continues essentially unchanged over the next 24 hours with mid-level high pressure centered over North Texas continuing to dominate. and this will continue to be the case as the high center only very slowly drifts westward over the next 36 hours.
1102 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2016 Another hot day is in store for the region, as the upper ridge remains anchored over TX.
Little change in the synoptic pattern with high pressure ridge centered south and east of the waters through the end of the week.
Current water vapor imagery reveals a flattening 500mb low, while a continued axis of isentropic ascent is featured ahead of a surface/850mb trough developing over eastern Colorado into northeastern New Mexico. Short range guidance, both mesoscale and traditional, have gradually become more bullish with precipitation development later this afternoon and evening in accordance with this high plains feature over northwestern Oklahoma.
942 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2016 An area of weak high pressure stretching from the Great Lakes to New England will shift to the east on Thursday.
1148 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2016 An area of weak high pressure stretching from the Great Lakes to New England will shift to the east on Thursday.
617 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2016 A convection-free night across the area will lead to a warmer day today.
All signs point to cooler weather through the remainder of the week as a longwave trough advances down the coast.
An H100-H70 frontal trof extending from the NC Outer Banks to the NE GOMex has pressed the Bermuda Ridge axis into the south FL peninsula/FL Straits, resulting in a more S/SW mean flow thru the lyr. Confluent zone between the trof/ridge axes is the I-4 Corridor. What is revealing, however, is a hi-amp inverted trof in the H85-H30 lyr extending from Key West to Cape Canaveral, with a respectable accompanying vort max draped over the Treasure Coast. H85-H50 steering flow will be fairly weak given the position of the mid lvl trof axis, but will support a N/NE storm motion that will keep diurnal convection on the east half of the peninsula. The Bermuda ridge axis has repositioned itself over the FL Straits, allowing sfc/bndry lyr winds to shift to a light to gentle SWrly breeze.
1150 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2016 Expect to see an increase in mainly mid clouds this afternoon into the overnight as moisture moves in from off the high plains. Current water vapor imagery reveals a flattening 500mb low, while a continued axis of isentropic ascent is featured ahead of a surface/850mb trough developing over eastern Colorado into northeastern New Mexico. Short range guidance, both mesoscale and traditional, have gradually become more bullish with precipitation development later this afternoon and evening in accordance with this high plains feature over northwestern Oklahoma.
Maliawco Synoptic setup: Hot dry Desert Air resides over the southwestern quarter of the CONUS with a ridge running northeastward through Wyoming and the Dakotas. A closed low aloft sets over north central Montana with a pacific airmass running westward into Washington. Another Closed low lays over the northern coast of British Columbia.
With the inconsistent areal coverage of the lowest visibilities, have opted to continue handling with special weather statements. This should suppress convection until late in the day allowing for a hot afternoon, with highs in the lower to mid 90s at most locations.
A cold front will move across northern Utah this morning and into central Utah this afternoon with drier and somewhat cooler air spreading in behind the front.
As an upper low currently over the Northern Rockies tracks eastward along the US/Canada border, downstream ridging will lead to a hot and dry day on Thursday. High temperatures will reach the lower 90s, while dewpoints in the middle 70s will create afternoon heat index values in excess of 100 degrees.
901 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 High pressure will build across the region later today through tonight then move east Friday. A warm front will cross the region Friday with a cold front crossing the region Friday night. High pressure will build across the region later today through tonight then begin to move east of the region later tonight. The pressure gradient between low pressure across the maritimes and building high pressure will keep gusty northwest winds today with gusts of 30 to 35 mph expected. High temperatures today will range from around 20 to the lower 20s north, to the mid to upper 20s Downeast. Strong high pressure will move off the East Coast Friday Morning. A strong southwesterly flow will develop behind the departing high pressure system. Snow will then end Friday night as a cold front moves through.
745 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 Temperatures will run below normal through early Friday as cool high pressure holds across the area. A warming trend will begin Friday afternoon through the weekend, as a low pressure system slowly approaches from the west.
Outside of some patchy morning valley fog, mostly VFR conditions exist this morning ahead of a cold front that's due to arrive late tonight.
1047 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 High pressure will build across the region later today through tonight then move east Friday. A warm front will cross the region Friday with a cold front crossing the region Friday night. High pressure will build across the region later today through tonight then begin to move east of the region later tonight. The pressure gradient between low pressure across the maritimes and building high pressure will keep gusty northwest winds today with gusts of 30 to 35 mph expected. High temperatures today will range from around 20 to the lower 20s north, to the mid to upper 20s Downeast. Strong high pressure will move off the East Coast Friday Morning. A strong southwesterly flow will develop behind the departing high pressure system. Snow will then end Friday night as a cold front moves through.
A storm system will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms today mainly from Tucson eastward along with much cooler temperatures and gusty winds. Latest surface observations indicate the cold front is now moving through Graham and Cochise counties. Once the precipitation with the frontal band moves east out of the area by early this afternoon, we will be under the influence of the cold pool under the upper low. Otherwise, the big story is the much cooler temperatures today with highs about 5-10 degrees below normal. The upper low will push east of the area with any lingering showers/snow showers across the White Mountains ending tonight.
729 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 Aviation High pressure will provide one more day of fair weather then rain will move in tonight as the high moves east and low pressure slowly moves towards Lower Michigan. Given the low dew points this evening, kept mention of freezing rain across the NE zones where temps are most likely to wet bulb down below freezing at the outset of the precip.
High pressure will return for Friday, followed by another storm system this weekend.
Upper trough has shifted east over the lower Colorado River Valley now with just some light upslope showers across the mountains in Tulare and Kern Counties. Short wave ridging will build in through the day for dry conditions though low clouds could persist along the foothills and eastern side of the SJ Valley. The dry period will be brief as the ridge gives way on Friday to the next upper trough approaching from the northeast Pacific. Precipitation may begin Friday morning around Yosemite NP, but most of the activity will occur Friday afternoon and night as the cold front moves in.
Temperatures will climb into the 50s in many areas, with the warmest readings closer to the 60s focused in South Central SD along axis of a developing inverted trough and northward lifting warm front. Models continue to have some discrepancies as far as the northern extent of warm front. Lapse rates with the 850:700 mb layer to sharpen over the CWA deeper moisture arrives, and freezing levels hold near 8k ft AGL, so while not a large threat, couldn't discount a few stronger hail producing storms between 03-07Z as they lift northeast along the elevated boundary. Friday: The large upper trough will continue to slide eastward into the lower Missouri River valley on Friday.
High pressure will return for Friday, followed by another storm system this weekend. Morning water vapor and H5 analysis indicate the mid level circulation of the upper trough has shifted east over south-central Utah, with a cyclonically oriented upper jet lifting northeast over the 4-corners region. Strong mid level convergence continues to exist along the northwestern flank of this low aiding tight near H7 thermal packing within a near stationary axis, this driving moderate to at times heavy precip along the bulk of the I-15 corridor from the northern Wasatch Front south through central Utah. Anticipating a more transitory period to develop through this afternoon as the upper low continues to shift east and downstream of the area. A more rapid downstream translation of the trough late today into the overnight will allow precip to taper off W-E by nightfall.
758 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 High pressure will build across the region later today through tonight then move east Friday. A warm front will cross the region Friday with a cold front crossing the region Friday night. High pressure will build across the region later today through tonight then begin to move east of the region later tonight. The pressure gradient between low pressure across the maritimes and building high pressure will keep gusty northwest winds today with gusts of 30 to 35 mph expected. High temperatures today will range from around 20 to the lower 20s north, to the mid to upper 20s Downeast. Strong high pressure will move off the East Coast Friday Morning. A strong southwesterly flow will develop behind the departing high pressure system. Snow will then end Friday night as a cold front moves through.
Cloud base is around 10kft, so most of the showers will go towards saturating the low levels initially before possibly seeing light showers this morning and into the afternoon. Tweaked temperatures slightly as well to reflect cooler temps around the cloud cover/showers and warmer temps where partly cloudy skies are holding this morning. Upstream temperatures are still in the low 40s, so hopefully low level mixing will still increase temps this afternoon as winds pick up.
Depending on dry line position, there still could be a few severe hail producing storms across NE OK/NW AR Friday evening into the overnight hours in association with main upper low.
If the warm sector plays out like the NAM where 925/850 RH is drier looking than the temps could get even warmer than the Superblend suggests. In fact the Superblend is already warmer than the MOS and this looks reasonable at this point.
1110 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 Continental polar high pressure will continue to modify over the srn Middle Atlantic states through tonight. A warm front will retreat north across the region on Fri, as the high drifts east toward Bermuda. An area of high pressure at the surface and aloft will maintain relatively cool and dry conditions across central NC through tonight. After a chilly start to the day, with early morning temperatures in the upper 20s-lower 30s, temperatures this afternoon should recover into the low-mid 50s north and upper 50s south. will allow a warm front to retreat north through central NC during the day Fri. The increasing low level moisture values, and broad WAA regime, will favor a scattering of flat/fair weather cumulus trapped beneath a subsidence inversion that will have become established courtesy of mid-upper level ridging aloft.
Southerly winds will increase ahead of the cold front today, so expect increased turbulence, especially over and near high terrain and east of the Cascades.
Rain and snow along a cold front will push eastward through eastern Arizona this morning.
/Today through Tonight/ High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes region will move southeast today while an area of low pressure organizes across eastern Colorado. This combination will lift a warm front north into Iowa today along with strong theta-e advection. The low ceilings should be north of Highway 30 by mid afternoon with the warmer temperatures immediately behind this region.
Temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s. A trough of low pressure will progress southward down the Florida peninsula this afternoon. Rain chances will be highest in the Middle and Upper Keys this afternoon due to the aforementioned approaching trough of low pressure.
Latest sfc analysis shows the cold front pushing into the Treasure Coast/Lake-O region as of mid mrng, driven by a very strong high pres ridge building off the Mid Atlc coast. Rapidly deteriorating conditions behind a cold front pushing acrs the Treasure Coast/Lake-O region.
Warmer air will be returning aloft on the back side of a low level ridge and this will result in at least a couple layers of sct to occasionally broken ceilings through the period. The lower ceilings will be around later this afternoon into the overnight hours but should remain above mvfr category.
815 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 Temperatures will run below normal through early Friday as cool high pressure holds across the area. A warming trend will begin Friday afternoon through the weekend, as a low pressure system slowly approaches from the west.
Lee trough/dry line will sharpen up during the afternoon roughly along Hwy 25/83 from Culbertson to Scott City, following the latest HRRR guidance. As the upper trough begins to emerge from the southern Rockies and temperatures cool aloft, coupled with very warm surface temperatures, weak to moderate instability will develop along and east of the dry line. Given the high LCLs, the tornado risk seems rather low despite the good deep layer shear. After midnight, the upper low closes off and deepens in southwest Kansas and a trowal develops on the backside, resulting in a significant band of wraparound precipitation in northeast Colorado. Precipitation will wind down Friday night as the upper low pulls away.
Given the veering winds to the south through the day, and height rises as upper level ridge shifts east it will lead to warming trend. Temperatures this afternoon are expected to climb into the lower 60s. Morning surface analysis also revealed a warm front resides southwest of the region in the Lower Mississippi River Valley.
1031 AM MDT Thu Mar 23 2017 Current surface map shows low deepening across eastern Colorado with inverted trof extending northward along the Wyoming/South Dakota border. Upper trof moving across the western U. Jet streak rotating out of trof will lifts into western South Dakota today. As upper low tracks into the central plains on Friday, focus for precipitation shifts southward tonight and Friday.
South to southeast winds have already started to pick up this morning and this low-level wind flow is keeping visibilities up above 6SM as well as ceilings not likely falling to IFR over the next 3-4 hours. Upper air analysis last evening showed a ridge over the middle of the country and a trough along the west coast. At the surface, a cold front stretched from central Utah to the northern Baja Peninsula. closer to home, high pressure was centered over the Gulf and winds across our CWA were from the southeast. An upper level low will close off as the west coast trough moves to the east. As the cold front moves through our area it will bring showers and thunderstorms starting across the north this evening spreading across the rest of the area overnight and into Friday.
Current water vapor imagery shows a 500mb trough over the Great Basin with mid level ridging overhead. The axis of a mid level trough will move over the Four corners region this evening as 500mb ridging drifts over the Gulf of Mexico. Friday will be warmer with high temperatures ranging from the 80s near the coast to the low to mid 90s across the west.
A low pressure system is expected to move through the area over the weekend. With temperatures rising above freezing, allowed the freeze warning for Jackson and Jennings counties to expire. Otherwise, appears the main weather maker during this period will be an upper low that is currently moving into the southwest parts of the country.
This is all in response to a slowly strengthening ridge over the Upper Ohio Valley tonight. Because of this, have shifted PoP coverage northward tonight and removed the mention of freezing rain. The push northward of the eastern ridge will also shove the warm front further to the north, engulfing the entire area in the expanding warm sector.
We generally look at OTH to ACV pressure gradient and the character of the Low Pressure as well as how the low level winds align against the coastal range. 0 and the Low is farther offshore and not deepening. I feel that the coastal headlands and the higher terrain in the coastal range could see the very strong winds and the High Wind Watch was canceled.
1154 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 A weakening cold front is heading south this morning and low level cloud cover in its wake is slowly lifting. Surface cold front, analyzed just off the Florida coast, will continue to slowly push southward and dissipate later today.
Issued by National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 955 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 High pressure under firm control with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above yesterday. A warm front crosses tonight.
Starting temperatures across the far northwest were also cooler than anticipated by about 5 degrees where clouds have cleared out. This is associated with a cold front moving in from the northwest which is shooing rain showers out of the area as well. Northeast Montana will see limited effects from the open trough that mostly undercuts our area. A broad cold frontal boundary will force storms from Mexico to southeast Montana to Minnesota today. An upper ridge moves in late tonight and Friday.
1030 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017 Weak warm front mainly along Interstate 20 to continue shifting north today. Winds will only drop off marginally overnight as the pressure gradient remains strong ahead of a cold front set to arrive late on Friday.
100 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 Warmer weather returns as southerly winds pump air from the Gulf of Mexico.
However, with easterly flow around the ridge some of the moisture/stratus over Georgia is expected make its way into our as we progress through the day. We are also expecting the main center of the ridge to shift to the southeast to the MD/VA coast by sunset and off into the Western Atlantic during the late night hours toward sunrise. This will be in response to an intensifying low pressure system across the Central U.
The first trough/upper low will approach our area today into tonight and will move across Oklahoma on Friday. Much drier air will enter western Oklahoma and western north Texas early Friday behind a dryline/cold front.
Mostly sunny skies this morning followed under high pressure. The mid/upper level ridge moves into Idaho in the afternoon, which allows flow aloft to back to the southwest which will give way to increasing high clouds this afternoon followed by a cold front ushering in a chance of showers, mainly after midnight.
927 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 High pressure will build across the area today, and move offshore tonight. A warm front will cross the region Friday.
624 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017 Updated aviation section for 12z taf issuance Previous update A narrow band of showers and even a few thunderstorms has developed along an elevated warm front along the Mississippi River. Negative showalter indices accompany the leading edge of the warmer air aloft. The latest hrrr/ruc/nam all develop this area of showers southeast to the Lower Ohio Valley this morning.
Water vapor imagery showing upper ridge in eastern portions of the region with upper trough sliding east across the Great Basin. Will keep small precip chances going for northwestern areas tonight with convection likely to fire in far western Kansas late this afternoon and trajectories giving some chance for this to reach the local area, and with upper trough emerging into the state late in the night. Ample shear is in place to work with what does develop, so still a bit of a wait and see for coverage and strength of storms given placement of the low and northward progress of the instability. Highs should still reach into the low 70s.
A weakening front in north-central FL will push across the area with modest amounts of moisture and cooler temperatures aloft. Winds begin to increase in the wake of the front and reach exercise caution to advisory speeds tonight as high pressure builds in.
Hourly temps have been running a few degrees warmer than the forecast. Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 49 70 56 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 45 68 51 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 64 46 68 52 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 39 67 47 / 0 0 0 0.
Issued by National Weather Service Nashville TN 1019 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 Did a quick update to remove the Freeze Warning wording from the zones and other products as we have warmed above the freezing mark. Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 49 70 56 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 45 68 51 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 64 46 68 52 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 39 67 47 / 0 0 0 0.
Rain and snow along a cold front will push eastward through the area this morning.
Deep layer ridging continues across the region. Another inversion will set up over the area overnight with deepest moisture trapped in the low-levels of the atmosphere and very dry conditions aloft.
708 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017 Upper high building to our south will provide fair and warm conditions through Friday.
905 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017 Upper level high pressure was centered just east of Florida this evening.
Surface ridging from the Atlantic is still building in underneath this exiting frontal system which is what will keep us in the southerly flow.
652 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017 A cold front across the southern end of the area will continue to move south tonight.
Arctic high pressure across western and central North Dakota this afternoon will propagate into the Upper Mississippi Valley Friday morning.
High pressure is centered well out in the North Atlantic and a cold front is stretched from the Ohio Valley to the Red River Valley. Through the weekend the aforementioned front and ridge will remain quasi-stationary.
430 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017 Main upper low responsible for this weekend's storm system is currently centered across northern California. Currently towards the sfc, expansive area of high pressure has chilled temps down to the 20s this afternoon, falling into the teens tonight as the ridge axis gradually slides eastward on Friday.
Surface wise, a hefty western Atlantic ridge axis extends across the gulf coast region, resulting in a 5 mb difference between Jacksonville and Key West.
Upper level ridge continues to build over the region this evening.
Thanks to our early morning cold front we have a wide range of temperatures across the Panhandles. The southwestern Texas Panhandles has been able to warm into the lower 60s while the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle hasn't broken into the 40s yet. We will see temperatures fall well below freezing across the area Tonight while isentropic lift brings ample low level moisture into the southeastern Panhandles. This lift could be enough to spark off some patchy freezing drizzle/rain for the southeast just prior to 6 am.
Weak trough forming over central Montana in between the departing Dakota high and cold air trapped west of the continental divide. Otherwise expect drainage winds to be a bit stronger tonight which will combine with a slightly warmer night to keep overnight lows across the west slightly warmer.
The cold front to the north of the area looks to slip into northwest portions late tonight and serve to keep those areas appreciably cooler than elsewhere.