Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
After quite a few light to moderate showers over the Lower Keys and the surrounding coastal waters this morning and early afternoon, KBYX has been nearly echo- free over the past couple of hours. Temperatures have been able to climb into the upper 80s at most island locations, with the exception of the Lower Keys that saw a few of the aforementioned morning showers and are still in the mid 80s. The subtropical ridge that has largely dominated our sensible weather over the past several days is expected to break down.
Thunderstorms are also expected ahead of a weak cold front over northcentral Wisconsin late this afternoon. Slightly cooler and drier air will arrive Wednesday behind the weak cold front, but high temperatures will still be well above normal.
An upper level low will drift across the area through the week, weakening across the area.
324 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021 A cold front will push offshore overnight.
1230 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021 A rather warm and moist airmass will remain in place over the local area as an upper low continues to very slowly move northeastward out of the southern Plains. With rising heights aloft, we should see high temps reach the low 90s in most spots.
Expect the higher end winds we will see through the evening hours will be perhaps some 50mph wind gusts associated with the stronger cluster of storms moving into/through Greene county as of 330pm, but will need to monitor for stronger storms/higher gusts. For tonight into Wednesday, a vort max associated with the remnant upper low over Arkansas lifts to southern Illinois tonight, with another piece of energy dipping south into the Arklamiss region.
An upper trof centered from the mid Mississippi River valley into eastern Texas/western Louisiana continues to lift slowly northeastward, with the axis of the southern portion of the trof advancing into Mississippi on Wednesday. A broad upper ridge which extends from the coast of the Carolinas to across the northern Florida peninsula into the central Gulf meanwhile weakens slightly. A layer of drier air (seen best in 850-700 mb dewpoints) likely a consequence of subsidence associated with the upper ridge is advected into the southeastern portion of the area overnight, then moisture in this layer recovers over the southeastern portion during the day on Wednesday. Lows range from the lower 70s inland to the mid 70s at the coast. MVFR to VFR conditions prevail through the period with the lower ceilings and visibility typically with showers and storms or patchy overnight fog.
Highs on Wednesday should be a bit warmer with highs in the mid and upper 80s. Most of the models are indicating an airmass gradient / warm front to set up across far southwest Missouri and northern Arkansas by Wednesday night.
Tomorrow, southeast Michigan will be more under the influence of the 589 DAM ridge at 500 MB positioned over the northern Great Lakes, coupled with low level easterly flow.
Ridge that has given us the warm weather is starting to break down as evidenced by the cloud cover earlier today and some thunderstorm activity this afternoon creeping back in. This needs to be watched for some evaporative cooling that could bring the snowfall to a lower elevation initially, but time period for snowfall is short with temperatures warming Thu afternoon, although nowhere near the highs in the 80s we are currently having, more in the 50s and low 60s rather than 70s to middle 80s. Thunderstorms will accompany this low as well, starting even in the morning on Thu.
300 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021 Broad upper level trough centered in MO causing another round of isolated thunderstorms along with a few showers. This puts some areas with heat index in the lower 90s. Wednesday: The upper trough will gradually shift to the east and weaken so coverage of any showers/isolated storms should be less than the past couple of days.
High temperatures will soon top out in the upper 80s at the coast, lower 90s inland, dropping to the low/mid 70s overnight.
An upper level ridge axis remains in place across the southern and central High Plains into the Midwest. Farther west, a deep upper level trough continues to sit off the Washington/Oregon coast. The upper level ridge continues, and actually builds somewhat, through Wednesday night across the central High Plains.
137 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021 The chance for rain will be a little lower mid week as the upper ridge strengthens and deeper moisture shifts to the north. An upper level trough will dig into the Mid Atlantic States late this week and into the weekend keeping rain chances in the forecast. Temperatures are still forecast to rise into the lower to middle 80s with dewpoints in the 70s.
We are still watching a strong trough off the coast which will move east and bring increasing chances of precipitation Wed and Thu. Winds today across the higher terrain and SE Oregon SW 10-20 kt with gusts 20-30 kt, becoming SW-NW and decreasing this evening.
An upper trough offshore with southerly flow aloft through today will promote isolated showers this afternoon into this evening, especially in the mountains. Thunderstorms are expected to remain into the mountains, however, can't rule out a spotty t-storm in the lowlands, mainly across the south. Temperatures in the 60s, cooler highs than normal. An upper trough will weaken over the first half of the week. Another round of showers and new upper trough will reach the Pacific Northwest around the end of the week.
An upper lvl ridge will strengthen over West Texas Wed continuing the scorching temperatures throughout the area. The upper lvl ridge will enforce a strong LLTR overhead, which will support multiple days of triple digit heat, lasting into the weekend. An upper lvl trough will dive into NorCal Thu tilting the ridge in a negative orientation but the ridge will remain over the Southern Plains until a secondary trough will likely flatten the ridge out by Sat with an associated front enforcing near normal temperatures by Sun.
We've seen a few bands of showers and storms develop along the eastern periphery of the low this afternoon, and this activity will gradually push off to our north and northeast through the day. or send hydrometeors high/long enough above the freezing level to result in any meaningful hail. The core of the upper level low currently in Missouri will be closer to us tomorrow, so winds aloft will be a bit weaker.
Moderate mid level ridging will persist over Mexico and Southwest Texas and dominate the short term. A weak inverted mid level trough will begin to form over the Southwest Gulf of Mexico towards the end of the short term, but impacts look to be minimal at this point. The surface pressure gradient will remain strong locally as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic/northeastern Gulf of Mexico and low pressure remains to our west, bringing breezy conditions into this evening and again (although slightly weaker) tomorrow.
At 3 PM, the axis of an upper level ridge stretched from the High Plains of Colorado to Wisconsin, and a weak upper level trough was centered near St. The upper trough was producing isolated showers and thunderstorms across Missouri and southern Iowa. Locally weather was typical of a summer pattern with weak ridging. Ridging should remain in control, while the upper level trough shifts slightly east toward Illinois. A stray shower or thunderstorm will be possible over central Nebraska (near any surface boundaries from convective activity tonight) or Iowa (weaker midlevel subsidence due to proximity to the upper level trough).
1226 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021 High pressure will continue offshore, while troughing persists inland through most of the upcoming week producing warm humid weather with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A cold front approaches the area late in the week and moves through on the weekend. PWats remain elevated up around 2 inches with the Bermuda High elongating over the Carolinas providing onshore flow in the low levels and moisture streaming in from the Gulf in the midlevels. Less midlevel dynamical support with high pressure building across eastern CONUS and not as much instability as yesterday, therefore thundershowers will not be as widespread. Cont warm and muggy with lows above climo in the low/mid 70s.
With the exit of scattered showers and storms this morning, we continue to move into a period of hotter, humid, and generally rain-free conditions that should persist through the remainder of the work week as upper ridging continues to build into the central CONUS. Highs should once again reach the lower 90s at most inland locations and the upper 80s closer to the coast.
1233 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021 Water vapor imagery shows what is left of the upper low tracking over northern AR/southern MO. Remains good model agreement in a sharp upper trough situated off of the Pacific Northwest coast with this feature moving into the Northern Intermountain/Central Great Basin by Wed night. At the same time, upper ridging will expand across the Southern Rockies into the Southern Plains. This feature will allow a weak cold front to push through the Plains during the day Fri. GFS and ECMWF agree on an expansive area of upper ridging building for the weekend across Northern Mex into the southern and central Plains.
Showers and thunderstorms have already been moving north off the Beartooth/Absaroka mountains as some energy associated with the low advects north.
This combined with the relatively clearer skies across the north lends credence to the HRRR's depiction of warmer temps in the northern valley with the addition of some weak downslope flow/warming. DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 72 85 70 84 / 30 50 70 50 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 69 85 70 84 / 40 40 70 50 70 Oak Ridge, TN 84 70 85 68 83 / 40 40 70 50 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 67 86 66 83 / 40 40 70 30 70.
It feels a little like Groundhog Day, with the repetitious effects of the drift of the upper Low, and the inhale/exhale feature of daily daytime and nighttime pops.
1256 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021 Early morning water vapor imagery is showing an MCV drifting generally northeastward through Arkansas within a nearly stationary long wave trough over the Mississippi Valley. Carney Guidance continues to show the gradual filling in and eastward drift of the long wave trough over the Mississippi Valley.
(This evening through Wednesday) Hot and humid conditions will become the dominant weather story across the Southern Plains as a mid-level ridge strengthens to the southwest. Recent rainfall will likely temper the magnitude of the warm up (at least initially), so opted to trend toward the "cooler" end of guidance for tomorrow. However, the development of an isolated shower or thunderstorm isn't impossible given the moist air mass, especially on the periphery of the ridge.
Beyond that, there will be a battle between H500 ridging to the west of the area while deep troughing exists to the east. It does look like the ridging will be overwhelmed by the trough with time and a return to wet conditions looks to take place after briefly drier and warmer temperatures are seen across the forecast area.
916 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021 Our area will remain between low pressure over the upper Mississippi Valley and high pressure over the southeastern states through Wednesday, keeping us in a humid airmass with scattered storms.
Closed low aloft will become less organized & progged to slowly move E-NE out of the Ozarks into the Mid-Upper MS Valley. Wednesday: Trough axis will propagate across the region on Wednesday, leading to increased low-level convergence & ascent. Highs will again near normals, but slightly cooler in the N & E where more rain/storms will reside.
Large scale upper level trough along the West Coast will move east through Northern California through Wednesday. High temperatures will remain in the low and mid 70's today and Wednesday, which is about 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. As the trough swings through on Wednesday it may produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Southern Cascade Range, Northern Coast Range and Northern Sacramento Valley.
Broad upper level trough centered in MO causing another round of isolated thunderstorms along with a few showers. This puts some areas with heat index in the lower 90s. Wednesday: The upper trough will gradually shift to the east and weaken so coverage of any showers/isolated storms should be less than the past couple of days.
Warm, dry southwesterly flow continues will remain across the region ahead of a Pacific trough through Wednesday.
934 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021 High pressure will continue offshore, while troughing persists inland through most of the upcoming week producing warm humid weather with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A cold front approaches the area late in the week and moves through on the weekend.
Upper level trough off the northern California coast will gradually move onshore by Wednesday evening, bringing with it an increase in winds, but dry conditions.
Vast upper low remains the story for the mid-state. This upper low now centered just to our northwest, and is slowly making it's way into the OH valley.
540 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021 (This evening through Wednesday) Upper ridging will move eastward tonight.
/Issued 429 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021/ Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible into tonight as an upper level trof axis currently over Eastern Oklahoma moves east and exits Northwest Arkansas. Additional showers and thunderstorms could develop early Wednesday morning as a low level frontogenetic band of forcing around 925-MB slowly lifts northeast through the CWA in response to a building ridge of high pressure expanding northeast into the region.
1001 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021 A broad subtropical ridge over the North Atlantic reaches west across northern Florida. The gradient along the ridge's southwestern flank supports fresh (17-21 knots) easterly breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. Temperatures along the island chain are in the lower to mid 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s.
An upper low present over the Mid Mississippi Valley was sending a series of upper level systems over the area from WSW-ENE. Rain rates at this time look to be on the lower end of this, so this should help lower the flooding risks somewhat.
734 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021 (This evening through Wednesday) Hot and humid conditions will become the dominant weather story across the Southern Plains as a mid-level ridge strengthens to the southwest. Recent rainfall will likely temper the magnitude of the warm up (at least initially), so opted to trend toward the "cooler" end of guidance for tomorrow. However, the development of an isolated shower or thunderstorm isn't impossible given the moist air mass, especially on the periphery of the ridge.
630 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021 Frontal boundary/outflow from morning MCS hovering across central MN/northern WI while Closed low was still pinwheeling across MO/western IL. Mid-level stretching deformation from that closed low could swing a few showers/storms in across southern forecast area (south of I-90) while that boundary up north acts as a focus for some convection on our northern fringes.
For Wed, the broad and weak upper trough to the south will continue to slowly move across the Ohio River Valley. This weak low to the south and strengthening high pressure over James Bay, Canada will bring a weak wind shift across the region in the morning.
1037 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021 The chance for rain will be a little lower mid week as the upper ridge strengthens and deeper moisture shifts to the north. An upper level trough will dig into the Mid Atlantic States late this week and into the weekend keeping rain chances in the forecast. Combined with abundant moisture, overnight temperatures will be warmer than normal.
429 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible into tonight as an upper level trof axis currently over Eastern Oklahoma moves east and exits Northwest Arkansas. Additional showers and thunderstorms could develop early Wednesday morning as a low level frontogenetic band of forcing around 925-MB slowly lifts northeast through the CWA in response to a building ridge of high pressure expanding northeast into the region.
919 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021 High pressure will remain off the eastern seaboard through Wednesday, leading to continued chances for showers and thunderstorms.
This in response to upper level trough over the Pacific northwest and southwesterly jet over the region. Little change to the overall pattern for Wednesday as the trough remains over the area with strong jet and weak instability.
Storms continue to fire along the warm front stretching across southwest ND this afternoon. Low pressure will move into western and central SD this evening. This is especially true as the warm front reorients and retrogrades to a sharper southwest to northeast direction that travels through western Corson. Our persistent pattern continues with the 500mb low and trough extending from the Gulf of AK through WA/OR/CA.
Troughing will be offshore through Wednesday isolated shower chances.
At the same time, the ridge to the east of Arizona becomes amplified, resulting in dry and breezy conditions along with temperatures warming slightly through the rest of the week.
734 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021 The chance for rain will be a little lower mid week as the upper ridge strengthens and deeper moisture shifts to the north. An upper level trough will dig into the Mid Atlantic States late this week and into the weekend keeping rain chances in the forecast. Clouds and abundant moisture will help keep overnight temperatures warmer than normal.
728 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021 High pressure will continue offshore, while troughing persists inland through most of the upcoming week producing warm humid weather with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A cold front approaches the area late in the week and moves through on the weekend.
Upper high centered over TX Big Bend and nrn Chihuahua with swly flow spreading sct-bkn amounts of high clouds over NM. High pressure aloft will be the main weather story. It has shifted a little east as a short wave trough zipped by to our northwest today.
With good heating tomorrow, the better chances for convection will be across north Georgia in proximity to the upper low. Higher chances will be likely in North Georgia through the end of the week with as a little added support from a weak mid-level trough before it kicks out over the weekend. Will see more locations developing MVFr to IFR ceilings by sunrise then expecting the lower clouds to dissipate by 14-15z.
335 AM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021 With the upper low still drifting across our high PW environ. NAEFS suggests 99th percentile PW's in the low 2's, with standard deviations 2+ above the norm. This correlates to our Marginal to Slight risk Excessive Rain Outlook for today, which has/will shift east slowly with time coincident to the Low's drift.
KGUY has the highest potential for needing an amendment.
Afternoon highs are expected to be in the low to mid 90s, except upper 80s along the coast.
225 AM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021 Upper level low pressure area has shifted into the western Gulf.
With the Bermuda ridge axis north of the local area and a mid-level ridge remaining in place overhead, expecting generally low chances for any showers and thunderstorms again today. Afternoon PoP values peaking around 20% or less, with the highest chances occurring across the interior, namely Lake County. Highs ranging from the low 90s inland to the upper 80s along the coast this afternoon.
A few straggling storms remain across the Highway 82 corridor and north. Closed low aloft will become less organized & progged to slowly move E-NE out of the Ozarks into the Mid-Upper MS Valley. Wednesday: Trough axis will propagate across the region on Wednesday, leading to increased low-level convergence & ascent. Highs will again near normals, but slightly cooler in the N & E where more rain/storms will reside.
A cold front will drop south across the region overnight.
257 AM MDT Wed Jun 9 2021 Northern plains remains in southwest flow, with the persistent upper trough over the west coast. At the surface, low pressure is moving from southeastern MT to southwestern ND. Generally quiet weather can be expected today, beneath the upper ridge axis.
249 AM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021 The pesky upper low continues to meander around leading to numerous showers and storms for our area for the next three days.
Upper ridge axis will build into the region from the southwest late week into the early part of the weekend, keeping thunderstorm chances mainly confined over far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas on periphery of upper ridge. Can't rule out a few pulse strong to severe thunderstorms each afternoon given the high instability/low shear environment.
331 AM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021 With upper level ridging moving over the area and slightly less available moisture the chances for diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be lower over the next couple of days. An upper level trough will dig into the Mid Atlantic States late this week and into the weekend keeping rain chances in the forecast. Synoptic situation will change slightly today as upper level ridging builds over the area while the best moisture slides away from the area.
Temperatures in the island communities are near 80F to the lower 80s and the dew point values are in the lower 70s. The subtropical ridge remains the dominant weather feature affecting the Florida Keys. The large high pressure system positioned over the western Atlantic and enveloping most of the basin, extends all the way to the Gulf of Mexico and the southeast United States.
Otherwise, expect dry conditions to prevail today, with temperatures in the low to mid 90s as upper level ridging holds tight over the region.
RMcQueen Upper level ridging will remain in place overheard through the weekend leading to above normal temperatures.
Guidance has trended slightly cooler, so the official forecast was trended that way as well.
353 AM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021 Upper level ridging is over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico with an upper trough just off the west coast. The NAM12 was reasonably accurate on high temperatures yesterday so have went slightly cooler than the NBM for today's high temperatures across the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos.
This activity developed along an old sea breeze boundary and a boundary that moved off an upper low/MCS to our west.
Unseasonably cool conditions will continue through Wednesday, especially inland, as a late season dry upper trough passes over northern California.
High pressure aloft will be the main weather story. It has shifted a little east as a short wave trough zipped by to our northwest today.
227 AM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021 Another warm and humid day anticipated with a risk of showers and thunderstorms as a cold front sweeps through the region.
At the surface, the subtropical ridge axis extends from the western Atlantic across northern Florida and will gradually slip south through the rest of the workweek.
(Today and tonight) The oppressive heat of summer has arrived in West Central Texas, thanks to a 594dam ridge at the 500mb level. This ridge, which is currently over northern Mexico and the Big Bend region, will strengthen and expand northeastward today. Temperatures at 850mb will be 2-3 deg C warmer than yesterday, or about 21-24 deg C across the area. This, combined with the lack of convective debris that has occurred the past two mornings, should translate to surface temperatures about 5-7 degrees warmer than yesterday.
/issued 1010 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021/ Another evening with areal temps still in the low 80s and dew points in the mid to upper 70s, resulting in heat index values at 10pm in the low 90s in spots.
148 AM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021 (This evening through Wednesday) Upper ridging will move eastward tonight.