Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
350 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 A cold front is edging into Central Illinois this afternoon, bringing some showers across the region. The cold front moving into Central Illinois this afternoon is bringing some showers to the region, but dry air in place is helping to erode the moisture. Models have been a little aggressive with the low cigs overnight, as well as the mention of fog.
337 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019 Retreating high pressure centered in the Northeast will produce dry weather and above normal temperatures this evening through the day on Sunday.
A cold front has moved through the area. /issued 415 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019/ WV imagery shows yesterday's trough ejecting into the MS Valley this morning, dropping a cold front in its wake into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. On the west coast, the next trough of interest is about to make landfall.
Meanwhile, a weak cold front currently west of our western most airspace will make slow but steady progress eastward into NE TX/SE OK and SW AR but should stall and eventually become washed out during the day Sunday. Have included some patchy fog and MVFR/IFR ceilings developing late tonight ahead of the remnant boundary for late tonight through the tail end of the TAF period on Sunday but did not add any precip mention as some of the higher res progs are indicating the possibility of isolated convection developing late tonight across portions of N LA.
333 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019 Short Term (Tonight-Sunday): the latest forecast for Post- tropical cyclone Nestor show the associated stratiform canopy moving across SoFlo, which had a noticeable hindering effect to the daytime heating cycle earlier today. The moist airmass will also contribute to warmer temps on Sunday with highs climbing back to near 90.
Ahead of the cold front, southerly winds will increase some, but the strongest winds will occur behind the cold front, especially across the northwest desert.
Upper level ridging will build eastward into the lower Ohio Valley through the weekend. Todays highs are expected to be about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday. Meanwhile, models show mixing of drier air across west Kentucky, which likely will lead to dewpoints falling into the lower 60s.
Temperatures across the Mid-South range from the low 90s to around 100F. Heat index values in the low to mid 100's.
259 AM MDT Fri Jul 22 2022 Hot and dry conditions will prevail over the region today with high pressure in place. A few high-based showers or thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the evening ahead of a cold front that is expected to drop through the area this evening. Westerly winds will gradually shift to the northwest and then north this evening, with wind gusts to 30 mph possible with the cold front. Cooler conditions can be expected on Saturday in the wake of the cold front with highs mainly in the 80s, right around normal for this time of year.
(Today and tonight) The upper level high that has dominated the forecast over the past week remains steadfast over the Four Corners region, with a few embedded upper level disturbances passing over the area through tonight.
Generally weak surface gradients as high pressure builds.
Louisville will likely remain in the low 70s. Tomorrow, return flow will help some areas lift dew points back into the low 70s early in the day. Sunny skies will quickly begin warming temperatures to highs in the low to mid 90s.
Locations that do not receive precip will experience warmer temperatures with Heat Index values into the lower to mid 90s.
Weak northwest flow continues over western Kansas during the short term forecast with an upper level high over the Four Corners region. A trough of low pressure at the surface will be found across eastern Colorado leading to southerly winds across the CWA through tomorrow. Lows tonight look to dip into the low 70s. Weak northwest flow continues over western Kansas during the short term forecast with an upper level high over the Four Corners region. A trough of low pressure at the surface will be found across eastern Colorado leading to southerly winds across the CWA through tomorrow. Lows tonight look to dip into the low 70s.
1011 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022 Slightly above normal temperatures with highs in the lower 90s are expected Friday, followed by warmer and much more humid conditions on Saturday with highs in the mid 90s and heat index near 105.
1136 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022 The upper ridge over the southwestern CONUS remains strong today. As a dynamic upper trough exits the Great Lakes region, this upper ridge will begin to build eastward across the central plains late this week and into the weekend. With the upper ridge expected to expand across the central plains on Friday, it will also begin to flatten out allowing for zonal flow across the northern plains.
1143 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022 Slightly above normal temperatures with highs in the lower 90s are expected Friday, followed by warmer and much more humid conditions on Saturday with highs in the mid 90s and heat index near 105.
308 AM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022 Early morning temperatures are 5 to 15 degrees cooler than they have been the last couple of nights, with readings mostly in the upper 60s to middle 70s. Despite a cooler start, temperatures will warm quickly today thanks to a drier airmass.
One last scorcher is expected on Friday, as the upper-level ridge over the Four Corners region continues. Areas to the west can expect highs in the low to mid 90s. Any storms that do develop will likely stick to the high terrain as there is very little instability present anywhere else. By Saturday, the ridge over the Four Corners will begin to broaden and shift further east. This will help cool temperatures down a bit as the ridge flattens out into more zonal flow.
Ridging is forecast to spread over the region today which will put a bit of a damper on overall coverage of showers and storms. High temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 80s across the Panhandle and SE Alabama to the low 90s elsewhere. Low temperatures overnight are forecast in the low to mid 70s. Cluster analysis and ensembles show high pressure being the dominate feature for the period. High temperatures throughout the period will be in the low to mid 90s but will feel like they're in the upper 90s to low 100s. Overnight lows will be muggy and in the low to mid 70s. High pressure is forecast settle over the area today through the weekend. After that, precip chances will be reduced due to high pressure building into the region.
920 PM PDT Thu Jul 21 2022 High pressure will continue to bring hot weather to the deserts through Friday. An Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect through Friday for the lower deserts. The high pressure will weaken and push eastward later this weekend, putting SoCal back into a monsoonal pattern and decreasing temperatures in the deserts.
Lows are likely to be even slightly cooler for Friday night as the rain cooled soil radiates less in the calm or light winds of the overnight hours.
The upper high, currently centered over Arizona, will begin to shift back east closer to the Four Corners region overnight tonight and into tomorrow. However, with increasing subsidence from the upper high, most places will likely not see any rainfall. Similar to today, high temperatures should stay in the upper 90s to low 100s with a weak 850 mb thermal ridge and some scattered clouds thanks to ample mid-level moisture.
With the front sagging further to the south today, high pressure will continue to build in from the west.
Mid level heights will slowly rise tomorrow, and a weak leeside trough axis will develop late in the afternoon up across northwest Kansas.
An interesting upper level pattern is in place with a modest deformation zone over the region created by upper ridging both to the west and east along with a weakening broad upper trof over the interior eastern states. Yet another feature contributing to the deformation zone is an upper trof in the easterlies over the western Gulf which continues further away from the area later in the period. Lows tonight range from the lower 70s inland to the mid/upper 70s at the coast and lows Friday night will be similar. Highs on Saturday will be mostly in the lower 90s.
Delta influenced Valley areas were much cooler in the 60s to low 70s. A week upper level trough is still slated to move through Northern California today through Saturday, which will allow temperatures to cool a few degrees today back to near the daily normal. Onshore winds will also become more elevated this afternoon and evening as the trough passes, with strongest winds in the Delta and mountains. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that high pressure will quickly build back over the West Coast and Eastern Pacific.
325 AM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022 SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): Latest model suite shows the center of the 500mb ridge currently anchored over the Desert SW expanding eastward across the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma Saturday. Large scale subsidence from the ridge persist over Deep South Texas maintaining deep layered dry air limiting rain chances to near zero today. A weak mid-level perturbation on the southern periphery of the ridge edges into southwestern Gulf of Mexico late tonight allowing for a slight uptick in atmospheric moisture Saturday.
A strong high pressure system was centered over Arizona during the morning hours and is expected to remain in place through Friday with hot temperatures continuing. Normally under such a strong high pressure system we can see activity completely shut down over Arizona. The center of high pressure will shift eastward in response to a trough over the Pacific Northwest.
The upper ridge helping to give us soaring heat for the next couple of days is forecast to flatten in both ensemble and deterministic models. 9 for about the western third, along with shift of tails of greater than 1 in roughly the western half of the CWA as our area will lie ahead of an approaching cold front.
(Friday through Saturday) A weakness in prevailing upper-level ridge combined with an westward progressing upper-trough across the north-central Gulf of Mexico will support a generally unstable environment across the ArkLaTex today. Convection to dissipate by mid-evening with overnight lows forecast to fall into the low to mid 70s. Otherwise, widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday across mainly north Louisiana in response to a weak inverted trough across Mississippi into Southeast Louisiana.
Water vapour loop had upper ridge centered over AZ with ridge axis into MT. Today, upper/thermal ridge peaks over the CWA with forecast soundings supporting widespread 90s on the plains/some spots poking into the lower 100s. Upper trough will reach western MT by 00z Saturday supporting weak low development over north-central WY. Very high-based TS could develop over the higher terrain of the Black Hills/northeast WY after 22z. It will drag a cold front into the CWA late with 3-5mb/3hr pressure rises behind it leading to gusty northwest winds.
(Today through Saturday) The ridge aloft will remain centered across the southwest U. Otherwise another hot day today, although high temperatures are forecast to be a degree or two cooler today than yesterday.
Today Through Saturday Night Following an afternoon of prominent, and much needed, rainfall across portions of S/Wrn AR, upper-lvl high pressure wl continue to dominate the pattern, with above normal temperatures remaining in place over the FA through the short term PD.
Weak upper trough remains over the E CONUS will gradually lift today. Height rises towards Saturday will help to weaken the persistent troughing that has been in place for a few days.
A cold front is slowly crossing Eastern KY this afternoon from NW to SE. The high will shift to the east overnight and settle over the central Appalachians through Friday night. Overnight lows will be in the lower to middle 60s, with some river valley fog developing late tonight. We start ramping up the heat on Friday as the low level flow returns to the W/SW. A ridge of high pressure will bring dry conditions and very warm temperatures to eastern Kentucky over the weekend.
Saturday morning has a chance for some storms as a cold front passes through the region. Saturday, after the front moves through, cooler air is advected into the mid levels from the north to bring temperatures down to about normal. Model soundings show mixing up to 850mb so these cooler temperatures should be realized.
That said, there will be a weak 25 kt llj that develops ahead of the low after 3z, so can't completely rule out some thunderstorm development with the jet. Above normal highs are forecast again on Friday as heights rise slightly with a minor amplification/shift of the upper ridge. A low pressure system will move off the Rockies and into SD Friday night. Beginning at 12z Saturday, a ~1004mb sfc and NE/SW-oriented cold front will be positioned across the middle of South Dakota. Models have slowed this system down a bit, which will allow for warmer daytime high temperatures Saturday, especially across south central and northeastern SD and west central MN.
The first issue will be the extreme heat today and tomorrow ahead of a nice cold front.
The lower cloud deck to gradually mix out a few hour after sunrise while cumulus clouds develop closer to the coast in the vicinity of KHRL and KBRO.
Highs today will be in the mid to upper 90s and even some 100's possible west of Nashville where the drier dewpoints in the low to mid 60s are likely to be. Should dewpoints drop into the low 60s for Nashville, highs may get to 100 today as well. A few CAMs have some isolated showers and storms in the afternoon, but kept Saturday dry for now as high pressure should win out during the afternoon.
617 AM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022 (Today and tonight) The upper level high that has dominated the forecast over the past week remains steadfast over the Four Corners region, with a few embedded upper level disturbances passing over the area through tonight.
306 AM MDT Fri Jul 22 2022 Hot and dry conditions expected again today as the upper ridge shifts east and flattens out. High temperatures will be approaching 100 with RH dropping into the low teens, especially across the south. Behind the front, with cooler temperatures, good humidity recovery and the potential for a few thunderstorms, fire concerns will diminish.
(Rest of Today) High pressure will continue to build into the region today behind a front responsible for increased thunderstorm activity to our south and southwest. High temps will range from the lower 90s across the higher terrain in northeast AL and southern middle TN to upper 90s across northwest AL. With dewpoints largely in the lower 70s today, afternoon heat indices will top out between 98-104 degrees, below advisory criteria.
The mid/upper level ridge that has brought the perpetual dry and hot weather will recede further today. The receding ridge coupled with rising PW values and an incoming inverted trough from the Gulf will likely bring more clouds and an increased chance of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Coastal areas are forecast to be in the low to mid 90s. So will it be cooler? Yes. As we head into the weekend, the persistent ridge over the southwest will build back to the east once again.
Aforementioned wave and attendant cold front swing through on Saturday, with support via the upper jet.
/issued 308 AM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022/ Early morning temperatures are 5 to 15 degrees cooler than they have been the last couple of nights, with readings mostly in the upper 60s to middle 70s. Despite a cooler start, temperatures will warm quickly today thanks to a drier airmass.
Models suggest that a couple of weak upper level short wave troughs may encourage some development. The next area may be more across the southwest half of the area in association with the second short wave trough. On Saturday, the upper level ridge will start to spread out across the southern U. There may be an upper level short wave trough that is strong enough to produce showers and thunderstorms across southeast Colorado or northeast New Mexico. These winds may actually decrease during the afternoon as the low level jet mixes out.
High pressure persists over the desert southwest and into eastern portions of the Great Basin region which will keep temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal through Saturday. Weak trough energy over northern CA will bring slightly higher wind gusts to NW Nevada this afternoon where gusts of 20 to 30 mph are expected. Tonight into Saturday the trough energy that was over northern CA will weaken and drift northeast into Idaho.
332 AM MDT Fri Jul 22 2022 High pressure was centered over east-central Arizona early this morning. Flow around the high shunted deep subtropical moisture well to the west of the region. Meanwhile, a trough moving across the northern Rockies tonight and Saturday is expected to cause the high to shift eastward over northwest New Mexico. This will be especially prevalent across the Grand Valley and the lower elevations of southeast and east- central Utah.
The marine layer will keep coastal areas cooler with areas of night and morning coastal low clouds and fog.
Additional storm development is possible Saturday afternoon with the approach of a strong Pacific cold front. The models are in good agreement showing h700mb temperatures warming to 17C-18C and the approaching cold front will support deep vertical mixing.
540 AM MDT Fri Jul 22 2022 High pressure was centered over east-central Arizona early this morning. Flow around the high shunted deep subtropical moisture well to the west of the region. Meanwhile, a trough moving across the northern Rockies tonight and Saturday is expected to cause the high to shift eastward over northwest New Mexico. This will be especially prevalent across the Grand Valley and the lower elevations of southeast and east- central Utah.
/issued 245 AM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022/ 06Z upper air analysis depicts a 250 mb anticyclone centered over the Desert Southwest, with a narrow corridor of "ridge riders" advecting southward along the Texas/New Mexico state line and into the Permian Basin.
617 AM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022 (Friday through Saturday) A weakness in prevailing upper-level ridge combined with an westward progressing upper-trough across the north-central Gulf of Mexico will support a generally unstable environment across the ArkLaTex today. Convection to dissipate by mid-evening with overnight lows forecast to fall into the low to mid 70s. Otherwise, widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday across mainly north Louisiana in response to a weak inverted trough across Mississippi into Southeast Louisiana.
Over the Weekend: Our region should be trapped in the warm sector ahead of a upper level trough advancing through the Northern Plains on Saturday. The main factor influencing possible thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon and evening will be a cold front advancing through the region.
642 AM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022 (Today through Saturday) The ridge aloft will remain centered across the southwest U. Otherwise another hot day today, although high temperatures are forecast to be a degree or two cooler today than yesterday.
(Today through Saturday afternoon) An upper level ridge is over the southern half of the country and will remain through Saturday.
Incoming upper trough from the north Pacific will pass north of our CWA today but close enough for slight cooling along with increased westerly winds this afternoon.
1155 AM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022 (Today and tonight) The upper level high that has dominated the forecast over the past week remains steadfast over the Four Corners region, with a few embedded upper level disturbances passing over the area through tonight.
339 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022 The main stories, at least through the weekend, will be the extreme heat that will recur tomorrow ahead of a cold front, and the chance for some potentially strong to severe thunderstorms this evening and again Saturday afternoon and evening.
from Sweetwater to Lubbock, bringing more stable conditions and cooler temperatures in the upper 70s and 80s to much of the Big Country. Unfortunately dry conditions are expected tonight and Saturday as the upper ridge again suppresses shower and thunderstorm development.
(Tonight) Afternoon temperatures currently range from the upper 80s to low 90s across the area, with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s.
There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon in the higher elevations of the East Tennessee mountains and the North Carolina counties. Discussion: In the upper levels, a broad trough is over the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Northeast regions. With a drier air mass in place this forecast period will be fairly dry with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon in the higher elevations of the East Tennessee mountains and the North Carolina counties.
McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 95 74 96 74 / 0 10 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 95 72 95 74 / 0 10 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 70 94 71 94 73 / 0 10 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 93 68 93 70 / 0 10 0 10 10.
The lower atmosphere is quite dry with 45 to 55 dew point depressions. A cold front will push into northern Wyoming around midnight and should be along the Continental Divide by daybreak. The surface cold front will be hard pressed to push into southwest Wyoming. In wake of this cold front, areas east of the Divide will see high temperatures on Saturday around 10 degrees cooler while areas over the west and southwest should see similar temperatures. Cooler temperatures, higher relative humidity, and weaker winds will keep fire weather concerns at bay for at least a day.
Lows tonight will range from the low 70s inland to mid/upper 70s at the coast. The upper low will continue to gradually shift further west of the area on Saturday and begin to dampen out as upper level ridging begins to build in from the west. The lingering effects of the low will likely result in scattered thunderstorms once again developing during the day Saturday, especially over SE MS.
A cold front will swing through southern and eastern MT this evening and into early Saturday morning, shifting winds to the north to northeast.
1252 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022 (Today through Saturday) The ridge aloft will remain centered across the southwest U. Otherwise another hot day today, although high temperatures are forecast to be a degree or two cooler today than yesterday.
1249 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022 (Rest of Today) High pressure will continue to build into the region today behind a front responsible for increased thunderstorm activity to our south and southwest. High temps will range from the lower 90s across the higher terrain in northeast AL and southern middle TN to upper 90s across northwest AL. With dewpoints largely in the lower 70s today, afternoon heat indices will top out between 98-104 degrees, below advisory criteria.
After any remaining convection departs the region Saturday morning expect decreasing clouds, northerly surface winds and cooler temps with highs from the mid 70s north to low 80s south. With an upper low over Hudson Bay, flow aloft over our region remains northwesterly initially.
242 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022 A weak cold front has sagged southward into central NE westward through southwest Nebraska this afternoon. Upper flow will remain westerly aloft Saturday as upper level ridging is suppressed somewhat southward across the Southern Plains. A cold front will surge southeast across the area on the backside of the low Saturday afternoon.
All in all, it's a nice way to wrap up the work week with beneficial rainfall and cooler temperatures for many to boot.
A weak low level trough moves into the northern zones this evening and generates some low level convergence.
Otherwise, the bigger potential is overnight as instability increases along with the development of the low-level jet.