Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
445 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 CURRENTLY - A COLD FRONT IS SPILLING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE KEYS EARLY THIS MORNING. BIG SWINGS IN NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A COUPLE OF WEAK REINFORCING TROUGHS ON TOP OF DAILY HEATING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA RESULTS IN LULLS EARLY IN THE DAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WEAK SHOWERS TONIGHT AS THE FIRST REINFORCING TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE KEYS.
/TODAY/ IOWA WILL BE ON BACKSIDE OF SIZABLE EASTERN LOW WITH LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL SLIDE SOUTH TODAY WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING MOST AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
401 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY WILL SWING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY.
/ISSUED 312 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/ COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO MARCH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS. LONG WAVE TROUGH MARCHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL DIG AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THIS WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE CWA FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD.
433 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016 WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT TODAY WILL HELP TO KEEP THINGS QUIET ACROSS SE TX JUST A BIT LONGER. THE ELEVATED RIDGING OVER THE REGION (THAT HAS BEEN TRAPPED BETWEEN THE TWO ROBUST LOWS ON EACH U. COAST) IS STILL PROGGED TO FLATTEN THIS WEEKEND AS THE LOW OUT WEST BEGINS TO MOVE EAST.
However, northwest winds will be gusty today behind a cold front. Deep upper low digging towards the Southern Appalachians this evening will push a cold front across the forecast area overnight. Large-scale guidance indicates that the forcing associated with the upper low and front will weaken through the evening hours, with the line of showers weakening as well. A large upper low will remain over the eastern third of the country through Friday night. With lower tropospheric heights and temperatures running 2-4 standard deviations below normal, expect afternoon highs to be much cooler than average. Thursday will be the coolest afternoon, with highs in the low 70s across Alabama and Georgia, and the mid 70s elsewhere.
119 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH LOWERING CIGS AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARMER UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT, POSSIBLY AFFECTING KCTB/KHLN/KGTF TERMINALS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM AN UPPER TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROF SLOWLY PUSHES EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING AND THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NORTH WINDS.
319 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016 Upper ridge over the Rockies this morning will build east today resulting in warm and dry wx for the region. However the next upper trough will move ashore the CA coast today becoming a cut off low.
A good setup for efficient radiational cooling is expected tonight with the ridge axis over the eastern cwfa by 12z/7am Fri. Most MOS guidance for lows tonight is in the low-mid 40s with the coolest spots over the eastern cwfa.
243 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO FRIDAY.
THE PERSISTENT PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN REMAINS IN PLACE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. IN ADDITION, THE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CLOSE TO 7C/KM. ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, NEXT UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NW ACTING TO KICK OUT FRIDAY'S SYSTEM.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST JUST OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CA. THE LOW MOVES INLAND TONIGHT AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER SRN CA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
159 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 AFTER A WEAK DISTURBANCE BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS EVENING, THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DIGS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECT CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST NORTHEAST BETWEEN 8-12TS.
/ISSUED 430 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES EXTENSIVE TONGUE OF DRY AIR ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION WHILE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE NUDGES EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. A COLD FRONT HAS NOW ADVANCED THROUGH THE REGION AND REINFORCED THE VERY DRY AND MILD AIR MASS IN PLACE.
UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING WILL BRING ONE MORE ROUND OF CLOUDS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BUT THE RAIN SHOULD STAY TO OUR EAST AS THE OVERALL TROUGH SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
WHICH DAY WILL END UP BEING WARMER IS A LITTLE UNCLEAR BASED ON THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE. THE DIFFERENCE IS THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA AROUND 18Z. WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. WITH WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BETTER MIXING. WENT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY BASED VERIFICATION FROM MAY 3RD WHICH SAW WARMER THAN EXPECTED TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO A FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE REGION IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO UPPER LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND.
359 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIVE THE WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA AND IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY DAY IS ON TAP. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE CLOSED LOW AFFECTING WEST TEXAS FOR THE WEEKEND. BUT WITHIN THAT CONSENSUS IS A SLOWER PROGRESSION AS THE LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A SUBSEQUENT SHIFT NORTH BEFORE EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS. THE CLOSED LOW BEING PROGGED TO SLOW AND SHIFT NORTH SLIGHTLY BROUGHT CHANGES IN THE AMOUNT OF DRIER AND WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR SPREADING EASTWARD OUT OF NEW MEXICO AS THE JETMAX PIVOTS AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
347 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA BRINGING CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S AT 2 AM CDT AND SOME UPPER 30S NORTH. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
A LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL BRING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO KDRT BEGINNING AROUND 15Z. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
EVEN AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER EAST, WRAPPED AROUND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS ALREADY SHIFTED NW TONIGHT AS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. RIDGE IS CENTER OVER THE DESERT SW AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
A spoke of energy wrapping around the back side of the upper low will push clouds back into portions of east-central and southeast Illinois today, but do not expect rainfall with this feature locally. The upper-level cold pool associated with system will pull away as the upper low continues to dig. Upper ridge axis is slowly shifting eastward this morning, as our nearby upper low drops across southeast Indiana. These features will be sliding eastward late this week, with the ridge being flattened by an upper wave/low that will be diving southeast toward Lake Superior.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE. WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE BAY OF GREEN BAY WITH THE COOLER WATER HOLDING DOWN TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE PERSISTENT IN GENERATING QPF TONIGHT DESPITE A RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. FRIDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER THAN TODAY AS CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LIFTS 850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS. DESPITE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS THE FRONT ITSELF WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY LATE AFTERNOON.
A CLOSED LOW WAS MEANDERING OVR THE OH VALLEY REGION. WITH THE HIGH CENTER PROGGED TO PASS OVR AR LATE TNGT/FRI. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WL BE A BIT COOLER.
239 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERS OVER THE REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S BUT WILL BE COLDER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
00 MB AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE RGV THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. THE 500 MB RIDGING WILL STEADILY BUILD OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES DUE TO DUAL CUT OFF LOWS LOCATED OVER THE WEST AND EAST COASTS OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. THE SURFACE RIDGING WILL SHIFT A BIT EASTWARDS THROUGH THURS WHICH WILL ALLOW A RETURN OF A S-SE WARMER LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE LATEST MET GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE SLOW PICKING UP ON THE WARMUP WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF BEING SHOWING A LITTLE WARMER TEMPS VERSUS THE MET NUMBERS.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD WITH WEAK WINDS.
A deep upper trough will be in place across the eastern states today. We are on the west side of this trough with dry northwest flow and the surface cold front through the area. High temperatures are expected to range from the lower 70s to near 80 across the area.
430 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES EXTENSIVE TONGUE OF DRY AIR ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION WHILE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE NUDGES EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. A COLD FRONT HAS NOW ADVANCED THROUGH THE REGION AND REINFORCED THE VERY DRY AND MILD AIR MASS IN PLACE.
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. HAVE OPTED TOWARD SLIGHTLY SLOWER/WARMER SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE NAM. EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR AND TEMPS TO DIP BACK DOWN TO THE LOWER 40S OR SO ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS HIGH WAS PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REGION. WE STILL WILL MIX DEEP ENOUGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.
THE COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED RAIN SHOWERS IS LIMITED AND THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 5KFT WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES FRIDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH LOCATIONS IN NORTH-CENTRAL MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN OMEGA BLOCKING RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A CLOSED MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW AROUND THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL AS AN MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDING INTO THE REGION. FOR THE PERIOD THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SPIN ABOUT NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE OMEGA RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLIDES INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S THEN RISING TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY.
259 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PRESENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO. A VORT MAX IS DROPPING SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. SO DESPITE THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS. HAIL WOULD BE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY WITH THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS. HAVE CUT BACK HIGHS FOR TODAY BASICALLY BACK INTO THE LOW 50S. ESPECIALLY ON THE RIDGES. UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. WITH TROUGHS OVER THE WEST AND EAST COASTS.
411 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO ENSURE UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE GREATEST PCPN RISK FOCUSED ALONG INVERTED TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS PIVOTING NWD INTO CENTRAL PA. LARGE TROUGH WITH CLOSED H5 LOW REACHING ITS FURTHEST SOUTHERN EXTEND THU NIGHT OVER NC WILL THEN LIFT BACK INTO THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI INTO SAT.
SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY OVER THE CWA/MSA AS THE REGION REMAINS EAST OF THE OMEGA BLOCK RIDGE AXIS (GFS DETERMINISTIC. ) THE AXIS APPROACHES THE CWA FRIDAY MEANING THAT THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND CONTRIBUTES TO AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE CWA FRIDAY AFTN. EXTENDED BEGINS WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WITH A PRONOUNCED SLOW-MOVING BROAD SCALE PATTERN MARKED BY UPPER TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS AND A MEAN RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.
THIS LEAVES A SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN SD THROUGH CENTRAL TX. CLEAR SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY MIGRATES OVER THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN WITH A LEAD PIECE OF ENERGY LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN CO/FAR WESTERN KS. BY 12Z SUN THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER EASTERN WY/FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH A VORT MAX STRETCHING FROM SW KS INTO SOUTHERN NM. GFS AND ECMWF ALSO NOW AGREE ON PUSHING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT INTO FAR EASTERN KS BY MON AFTERNOON WHICH IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
235 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED TO OUR SE. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING MORE OUT OF THE S-SW DURING THE DAY TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE SINKS ACROSS S MANITOBA. AND THE LOW MOVING INTO ONTARIO WITH THE COLD FRONT SINKING ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER. WITH TEMPS BEING A BIT MORE DIFFICULT TO FCST DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE EAST AS THE UPPER CLOSED LOW DIGS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. WINDS ALSO LOOK TO PICK UP A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP RIGHT WHEN THE UPPER CLOSED LOW IS OVER EASTERN TN/WESTERN NC. A WARMING TREND WILL START MOVING IN ON FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW EXITING INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGING WILL REPLACE IT AND START WARMING UP THE REGION.
518 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016 Benign weather to continue through the remainder of the work week as large-scale ridging seen over the Rockies this morning shifts east with time. high pressure expected to drift over the area today with winds largely remaining light and variable through the day. The combination of building heights along with increasing 850-mb temps should allow highs to reach into the lower to middle 70s across much of the area. Even warmer temps likely Friday as southerly flow returns as high pressure settles well to our southeast.
259 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016 An amplified upper level trough located across the east central US early this morning will slowly drift east to the eastern US coast line by 12Z FRI. An upper level ridge across the continental divide will move east into the high plains Tonight. Expect dry conditions through Tonight as the upper level ridge moves into the high plains Tonight.
640 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
08Z H5 ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LONGWAVE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF CONUS WITH A RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED JUST LEEWARD OF THE ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST.
656 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 SHOWERS WILL END ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD START CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION WORKING ITS DOWN THRU INDIANA TONIGHT. CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST BRINGING AN END TO PRECIP AND GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AS SUBSIDENCE AND NVA FILL IN BEHIND IT. STRONG UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING UP THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL US PLAINS AS STRONG NORTHERN STREAM JET DYNAMICS COME ONSHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA. UPPER TROF DEEPENS AND CLOSES OFF OVER HUDSON BAY AS 100KT UPPER JET ROUNDS BASE OF THE TROF IN THE GREAT LAKES.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH HAD CLEARED OUT ALL OF THE RECENT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE BREAKING DOWN TODAY AS A LARGE -20C CORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE CALIFORNIA TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. MOST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO ALONG A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
WITH TROFS OVER THE EPAC AND OHIO VALLEY AND A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW FCST TO STRENGTHEN SUN INTO MON AS PRESSURES FALL OVER THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE SLOWLY ADVANCING WRN CONUS UPPER TROF. WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS WHAT REMAINS OF THE WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE TRAVERSES THE REGION.
353 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016 MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND PANHANDLES TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ON FRIDAY.
318 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 AFTER A WEAK DISTURBANCE BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS EVENING, THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DIGS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECT CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST NORTHEAST BETWEEN 8-12TS.
AN UPPER LOW WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
459 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016 (Today and Tonight) Nationally, today through tonight will see the central CONUS dominated by an upper ridge with the western and eastern CONUS dominated by upper lows. Afternoon highs will be warmer than yesterday by a few degrees with mid to upper 80s expected. Morning lows tomorrow will also be a little warmer with temperatures in the upper 50s.
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH DEEP UPPER TROUGHS IMPACTING THE EAST AND WEST COASTS WILL LEAVE SOUTH CENTRAL TX WITH MORE SEASONAL WEATHER WITH WIDE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES.
508 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
1109 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016 QUIET PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE DURING FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN WEATHER CHANGE AS A RESULT WILL BE A STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TOMORROW WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20 KTS BY MIDDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM ANOTHER 3-4 C. THE TRI STATE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG RIDGING RIGHT UP THRU THE MID LEVELS. MODELS WILL SHIFT/BREAK DOWN UPPER RIDGE FROM MORE SO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DOWN TO MORE OF A FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE SETUP OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES.
633 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
316 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016 UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER TEXAS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
ANOTHER SUNNY AND MILD DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF REGION WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS EAST TO WEST FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. ALL AND ALL STILL A PLEASANT DAY AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S AND END UP ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMPERATURES. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT COUPLED WITH COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION WILL CREATE SOMEWHAT CHILLY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FOR MAY.
AND EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AS A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AIR FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SD ARCING ALONG THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR. THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MAY HELP TO KEEP TEMPS A BIT WARMER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AROUND THE CWA. BUT HAVE SIDED A BIT CAUTIOUS WITH DRY AIRMASS TO ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL GENERALLY TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SETTLE OVER THE REGION AS A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. LEADING TO COOLER.
321 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
559 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016 Area will be under nly flow within the highly amplified flow today. The upper low will continue to sink swd today with a vort max spreading clouds across the ern portions of the CWA today. However, have generally trended slightly warmer as less cloud cover is expected today.
AN UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SE TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THURSDAY MRNG. ALSO THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE REGION.
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW.
Models show a dryline then cold front moving into the fa Thursday evening.
Patchy fog will be possible again late Wednesday night under high pressure and light winds.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): 500mb ridge across the east-central United States this afternoon will shift eastward tomorrow as a 500mb trough moves eastward across the western United States. Lows tonight will be warmer compared to last night as the dewpoints recover across the CWA. Isolated showers will develop across the coastal waters Thurs night as moisture continues to increase across the lower TX coast.
It will be a bit cooler due to cloud coverage and therefore no anticipating breaking maximum daily records.
As the low pressure moves across southern Canada today south winds will turn to the west this afternoon in eastern North Dakota. Overnight winds will turn to the north with cold front passage as the short wave pushes east.
1006 AM PST Wed Nov 16 2016 A cooler and unstable air mass has become established over the Inland Northwest behind yesterdays cold front.
Mixing through 925-900 mb should yield max temps in the lower to middle 50s in most locales. High pressure will shift east of the region tonight, allowing increasing southerly return flow to develop. On Thursday, a cold front will edge into the northwest half of the forecast area, with a continued potential for low clouds there.
A building ridge through the mid and upper levels will bring warmer temps tomorrow.
Low-level flow strengthens late tonight in response to deepening trough to our north, across the Great Basin. As the low to our north deepens the surface pressure gradient tightens making for a breezy afternoon on Thursday.
the region will remain under the influence of weak high pressure at surface and aloft.
This will allow some cold air advection to work into the area on Thursday, and with mid level clouds increasing through the day, temperatures will be markedly cooler across the board on Thursday. when light rain will become possible mainly west of the James River and through the highway 14 corridor.
Temperatures still on track to reach the lower to mid 60s and little change was needed to the forecast, aside from removal of the morning fog. Weak cold front pushing SE through central IL early this morning to bring yet another shift in generally light winds. As a cold front approaches from the central Plains.
BMickelson Previous short term discussion: Upper trof off the west coast pushing onshore this morning. Strong wave in the southern portion of the upper trof is expected to dive through the Great Basin before spinning up a Colorado low on Thursday.