Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A better chance for thunderstorms exists Thursday afternoon as the cold front pushes further southeast through southwest and central Kansas into Oklahoma. Look for lows back down into the 60s(F) tonight as light southeasterlies prevail across the high plains. A strong cold front will push southeastward across western Kansas through the afternoon time frame halting climbing temperatures across west central Kansas by mid day. Short range models show H85 temperatures falling well into the teens(C) as much cooler air spreads across the region behind the front. Depending on the timing of the frontal passage, temperatures could struggle to reach the lower 80s(F) in west central Kansas. However, a southeast upslope flow will return to the high plains of eastern Colorado as the frontal boundary to our south lifts back north.
439 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017 We will remain within northwest flow as a cold front has cleared our area today. This will place lows well down into the lower to mid 50s, and even some 40s up by Ord and in our northern and northeastern CWA.
1149 PM MDT Wed Aug 2 2017 A nearly stationary large high pressure ridge aloft will remain over the Western U.
330 AM MDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Cold front continues to make its way through the forecast area, with a few isolated showers and thunderstorms possible near the front early this morning, mainly in northeast Colorado.
246 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Cool and breezy day will feel more early fall-like, under the influence of strengthening low pressure. Upper level trough currently digging into northeast South Dakota early this morning will continue to dive southeast through southwest Minnesota around midday, then exit the area this evening. Ongoing showers mainly focused near the stronger dynamics along the highway 14 corridor will also continue to rotate around the upper low this morning. Activity will taper off from west to east this afternoon as the low exits the region. With the cool airmass and clearing skies, lows tonight will also be quite a bit cooler than recently, with lows in the mid 40s to near 50.
321 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Warm advection and moisture convergence along and ahead of a pre- frontal trof at 850mb continues to produce isolated convection across parts of west central Illinois this morning. This wave will dig southeast today and tonight, amplifying the longwave trof over the eastern CONUS as it progresses. The low will move east-northeast this afternoon and tonight, driving a cold front through Missouri and Illinois. Carney Cold front and precipitation associated with it to exit region by daybreak on Friday.
Dry northwest flow increases over the region through Friday in response to the weakening upper level ridge.
However, thunderstorms are noted over the mountains of CO along the northeast periphery of the upper ridge. Elsewhere, dry conditions should persist through tonight as temperatures drop into the low 60s. The strength and southern push of the associated cold front has also backed off compared to yesterdays runs. Temperatures will be tricky Friday, but did raise a few degrees as cooler airmass expected to stay northeast of the Panhandles.
531 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Rain chances will gradually increase into Friday as a cold front approaches the region. Thus, the highest PoPs remain constrained to the northern CWA, but by late afternoon and evening, there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms just about everywhere.
Expect showers and thunderstorms to redevelop over the higher terrain after 18Z Thursday with valleys impacted later in the afternoon.
635 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Warm and more humid conditions will prevail until a strong cold front moves through Friday night, bringing cooler and drier conditions for the weekend. Models are in good agreement with an unseasonably strong cold front on the doorstep of western PA by late Friday afternoon. The area is outlooked for a SLIGHT risk of severe storms, and at first glance it looks like the main cold front will be entering the region after max heating with waning instability. But the guidance is hinting at a pre-frontal trough developing over west-central PA which is used to act as a focus for developing convection during the afternoon.
419 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Temperatures will warm to just below the seasonal normals today ahead of a cold front that will enter northeast Oklahoma late this afternoon or early this evening.
Through the morning, there should be a slight increase in the chance for rainfall across extreme southern CSRA and southeastern Midlands as the low-level moisture and associated rainfall slowly pushes inland. Models show the wave of low pressure along the Carolina coast shifting toward the northeast on Friday. Continued with high end chance pops with the highest pops east. Overnight lows tonight and Friday night in the lower 70s. Broad troughing over the central and eastern U.
116 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Rain chances will gradually increase into Friday as a cold front approaches the region. Thus, the highest PoPs remain constrained to the northern CWA, but by late afternoon and evening, there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms just about everywhere.
451 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Warm and more humid conditions will prevail until a strong cold front moves through Friday night, bringing cooler and drier conditions for the weekend. Models are in good agreement with an unseasonably strong cold front on the doorstep of western PA by late Friday afternoon. The area is outlooked for a SLIGHT risk of severe storms, and at first glance it looks like the main cold front will be entering the region after max heating with waning instability. But the guidance is hinting at a pre-frontal trough developing over west-central PA which is used to act as a focus for developing convection during the afternoon.
The infrared satellite view from GOES-16 indicated the higher altitude clouds moving in a SW-NE manner from northern Lousiana to the Carolinas and Virginia. The moisture should make for slightly warmer night time lows over NW AL - so made minor adjustments in this area. General trof position at 500 mb will remain over the southeast U. Will maintain a low chance of showers/thunderstorms, with best chances still in our southeast counties in closer proximity to the higher vorticity in the wave. The associated cold front will slowly drop south through Friday evening. The highest chances of precipitation will be during the day Friday ahead of the front coinciding with peak heating.
The next upper trough is still on track swing by mainly just to the north and east late Thursday and early Friday, while dragging a weak cold front into the area briefly as well.
613 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Moisture will slowly increase over the next few days, bolstered on Friday by the approach of a cold front.
315 AM MDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Strong upper ridge is sitting across the far western CONUS and just offshore across the eastern Pacific. Upper trough remains centered over the MS valley with NW flow aloft over the northern plains. Surface obs show high pressure over eastern MT/western Dakotas. Temperatures will feel much cooler today with highs in the 60s across the Black Hills and 70s over the plains. High pressure will slide east of the region Friday with southeast flow developing. The area will see warmer temps with highs in the 70s over the Black Hills and 80s over the plains.
Models show the upper low/wave to continue moving southeast towards the ND/SD/MN border by daybreak. Northwest flow aloft dominates the forecast period contributing to generally cooler than normal temperatures across the area.
Local northerly to easterly winds are persisting this morning, left over from yesterday's cold front. Friday afternoon the next cold front will move southward along the Continental Divide, returning a push if easterly winds, increasing humidity and a precipitation threat.
244 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Rain chances will gradually increase into Friday as a cold front approaches the region. Thus, the highest PoPs remain constrained to the northern CWA, but by late afternoon and evening, there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms just about everywhere.
Similar forecast to what we saw yesterday with a weak and broad upper-level trough still in place and weak high pressure at the surface. Few clouds means warmer temps. Most areas will see temperatures a degree or two warmer than yesterday with highs generally in the mid to upper 80s. Clouds on the increase tonight as the trough begins to amplify in response to a low pressure system moving into the Great Lakes region.
A warm frontal boundary will continue to push northward over the area today.
Outflow boundary winds well ahead of these storms gusted to 55 mph in Ridgecrest and 57 mph at Laurel Mountain shortly after midnight. So, what's bringing this monsoonal moisture into the central California interior? It's a low pressure system centered a few hundred miles west of the San Francisco Bay area.
420 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Currently - An Atlantic ridge across South Florida is lifting northwards today, resulting in gradually strengthening east to southeast breezes. Warmer and drier low and mid level air has moved in across the area resulting in virtually zero shower activity. Rain chances will remain slim to none today and tonight due to the continued presence of warm dry air through the low and mid levels. A ridge axis across South Florida will lift northwards into Central Florida tonight and tomorrow. Thanks to low and mid level ridging across the Keys, broad subsidence will result in near zero rain chances and mostly clear skies, delivering prevailing VFR conditions for the island terminals. One hundred and twenty-seven years ago today, the high temperature in Key West rose to only 81 degrees.
In the upper levels a trough will be over the Eastern U.
347 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Cold front over Nebraska and Iowa is approaching far northwest Missouri early this morning. A large area of high pressure will quickly build in from the north behind the front tonight. Cooler and drier air associated with this system will bring autumn-like temperatures to the area for Friday with highs only in the upper 70s and dewpoints in the lower 50s.
A cold front crosses Friday and Friday night. Cooler and less humid for the weekend. These are being driven synoptically by a weak s/w trof. A cold front will push through the region Friday afternoon and evening, producing showers and thunderstorms. A high pressure system will provide cooler and drier weather for the weekend.
646 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Weak high pressure will remain centered near the Mid-Atlantic coast today before sliding farther offshore Friday.
These should continue to diminish the next hour or two as forcing is very weak over the area with a weak broad trough the general pattern. With light winds through much of the lower atmosphere, movement is slow and precip amounts associated with these storms are significant despite the low coverage. Should be weak short wave ridging over much of the area over most of the night which may inhibit the development of nocturnal storms, but will need to monitor closely this evening. On thursday a stronger wave and associated cold front will top the plains ridge and move toward IL. Much cooler air will advect into the region on Friday. SREF members are strongly grouped into model type (ARW vs NMB) with the better performing of late NMB cluster warmer.
Very hot weather continues under a strong upper ridge. This ridge will remain in place into Friday before weakening very slowly through the weekend.
Low pressure at the surface and aloft will move southeastward from the western Canadian Prairies across the Dakotas and into Minnesota tonight. GFS and GEM Regional seem to be the cooler two deterministic models and nudged high temperatures for Thursday toward them. The cooler trend yields a broad area of middle and upper 50s from near Silver Bay inland to the eastern Iron Range and areas south, including the Twin Ports, Brainerd, and Hayward. Thursday evening a trough will lift northeastward from eastern Minnesota into the central Great Lakes by Friday evening.
240 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017 WV imagery shows our region under nw flow aloft, as the upper ridge remains anchored over the nwrn CONUS and large- scale troughing continues over the Great Lakes region. Despite overall disturbed upper low, dry pocket seen on WV imagery will likely keep our convective coverage scattered at best today.
High pressure will gradually move offshore through the end of the week.
A cold front crosses Friday and Friday night. Cooler and less humid for the weekend. Surface cold front starts to approach the region overnight and into Friday morning, but any action with the front will hold off until after the near term period later in the day on Friday. A cold front will push through the region Friday afternoon and evening, producing showers and thunderstorms. A high pressure system will provide cooler and drier weather for the weekend.
Highs should be tad warmer on Thu as well. A cold front will drop SE into the state Thu night into Fri.
417 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017 A cold front will cross the Ohio Valley on Friday with showers and thunderstorms found along it. High pressure will build in for the weekend and bring drier air and cooler temperatures. Highs will reach the low to mid 80s under a variably cloudy sky today. Later overnight, a cold front will be approaching from the west, with thunderstorm activity found along it. The cold front will be east of the CWA at the beginning of the period with rapidly drying and cooling air found behind it for the overnight and rest of the weekend.
/issued 240 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017/ WV imagery shows our region under nw flow aloft, as the upper ridge remains anchored over the nwrn CONUS and large- scale troughing continues over the Great Lakes region. Despite overall disturbed upper low, dry pocket seen on WV imagery will likely keep our convective coverage scattered at best today.
226 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017 A cold front will slide southward across Kansas today with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to develop over southern Kansas mainly for this afternoon into tonight. The low level jet will respond with increased moisture transport ahead of this system, which should generate elevated showers/storms late Friday night mainly for central Kansas and areas to the north.
350 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Weak high pressure will remain centered near the Mid-Atlantic coast today before sliding farther offshore Friday.
1132 PM MDT Wed Aug 2 2017 Upper wave rotating around the ridge and over CO this afternoon with line of rather fast moving tsra dropping south across the region. Convection over the mountains will begin to diminish by late evening, but may linger much of the night on the plains, as pre-frontal trough drops through by midnight, followed by the main cold front around sunrise. On Thu, cold front exits the area to the south by mid to late morning, with models suggesting at least a few -shra on the plains along and behind the boundary through midday. Max temps behind the front over the eastern mountains and plains will run 10-15f cooler than Wed maxes, with more modest cooling of 2-4f farther west over the remaining mountains and interior valleys.
252 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Pretty active pattern moving into the region during this forecast period with a series of upper troughs passing through the area. Today there will be chances for some showers and thunderstorms due to the weak upper trough and some diurnal support by the afternoon hours. Overnight into early Friday morning will be similar to previous overnight hours being dry, but better chances for showers and thunderstorms will move in Friday thanks to the stronger upper closed low over the Great Lakes that will drag a cold front through the region.
More storms can be expected as a cold front moves through the area on Friday. High pressure will build in for the weekend. During the day Thursday a closed low pressure will be located over Minnesota and be slowly pushing southeast. Ahead of the closed low a jet streak will extend across Illinois into Michigan. Lows will be a bit warmer than last night. Weak troughing will persist across the region with minor disturbances moving through it. A fairly strong mid level short wave embedded in a broader upper level trough will pivot east across the southern Great Lakes Friday into Friday night. This will help drive an associated cold front east across the upper Ohio Valley through the day on Friday. High pressure and a cooler, drier airmass will build in behind the front for the weekend.
641 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017 A cold front will cross the Ohio Valley on Friday with showers and thunderstorms found along it. High pressure will build in for the weekend and bring drier air and cooler temperatures. Highs will reach the low to mid 80s under a variably cloudy sky today. Later overnight, a cold front will be approaching from the west, with thunderstorm activity found along it. The cold front will be east of the CWA at the beginning of the period with rapidly drying and cooling air found behind it for the overnight and rest of the weekend.
Through the morning, there should be a slight increase in the chance for rainfall across extreme southern CSRA and southeastern Midlands as the low-level moisture and associated rainfall slowly pushes inland. Weak upper troughiness to remain over the E CONUS, with an east to west oriented ridge axis stretched just to our south.
627 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Warm and more humid conditions will prevail until a strong cold front moves through Friday night, bringing cooler and drier conditions for the weekend. Models are in good agreement with an unseasonably strong cold front on the doorstep of western PA by late Friday afternoon. The area is outlooked for a SLIGHT risk of severe storms, and at first glance it looks like the main cold front will be entering the region after max heating with waning instability. But the guidance is hinting at a pre-frontal trough developing over west-central PA which is used to act as a focus for developing convection during the afternoon.
448 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017 We will remain within northwest flow as a cold front has cleared our area today. This will place lows well down into the lower to mid 50s, and even some 40s up by Ord and in our northern and northeastern CWA. This is a cool and wetter than normal pattern for us with an upper trough over central Canada down into the northern plains.
Overall weather pattern through Thursday night looks unsettled with a warm and moist low-level air mass, and broad and weak upper trofiness both remaining in place. A series of weak disturbances swinging through the upper trof will support scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon, but convection will be more isolated on Thursday afternoon. Storm chances will be in play again on Thursday with the upper trof axis remaining just off to our west. Will again see precip tapering off with the loss of heating, but chances will start to ramp up again before daybreak Friday as the upper trof digs into the Great Lakes and drives a cold front into the Ohio Valley.
Look for another day of hot temperatures over the Great Basin, although the upper ridge will gradually lose strength over the next couple days. Upper level ridge will remain somewhat overhead today, with another round of hot temperatures on tap for northern Nevada. By the afternoon, the hold of the upper level ridge wanes a bit but highs will remain at above normal levels.
/issued 231 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017/ A cold front continues to move south toward the CWA this afternoon and will reach Walnut Ridge and Corning in the next hour or so.
720 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 Lows tonight will dip to the lower and middle 20s as colder air moves in behind a cold front.
531 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017 High pressure extended from the northern plains into the lower Missouri Valley at 20Z with a pool of very cold air located over the area this afternoon. The center of the high pressure will drift southeast tonight and be over the lower Missouri Valley by Wednesday morning. Winds will continue to diminish through the evening as the high moves into the area and become light by late tonight. Warmer air will begin to spread back into the area on Wednesday as the high continues its track southeast toward the Ohio and lower Mississippi Valley and low level flow becomes southerly over the central plains region.
950 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 Weak low pressure tracks northeast off the mid-Atlantic coast late tonight and Wednesday. Meanwhile, a cold front crosses the area late tonight then moves off the coast Wednesday morning.
834 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 A cold front is currently moving into the forecast area with an upper level trough moving across the Great Lakes. Latest Hi-Res guidance suggests a few sprinkles or light showers across the higher elevations through midnight or so. For now, have continued with 20-30 PoPs for the higher elevations. Cooler and drier air will advect in behind the front ending these low PoPs late tonight into early Wednesday. Chattanooga Airport, TN 40 54 35 57 / 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 39 50 34 56 / 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 37 51 33 55 / 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 48 27 52 / 20 0 0 0.
/issued 555 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017/ Dealing with a mix of MVFR/VFR ceilings this evening across our airspace ahead of a cold front which will be moving southward into our airspace overnight. As a result, drier air in the low levels will eventually spread into our region overnight with much of the cloud cover dissipating later this evening or after midnight.
The main concerns for Tuesday evening and Tuesday night remains the strong, gusty winds behind the cold front that passed through the area earlier today. /issued 235 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017/ (Tonight and Wednesday) Cold front has passed across all of West Central Texas late this afternoon, leaving gusty north winds in its wake. With light winds and a dry atmosphere, good radiational cooling conditions are expected near the freezing mark along the I-10 corridor, NW Hill Country, and San Saba and Brown Counties. Lows will be a bit warmer in the mid 30s to lower 40s farther north and west where winds will be stronger.
A cold front will be moving through the RGV later tonight bringing around a surface wind shift from the N-NW. /issued 232 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): The main event in the short term portion of the forecast will be the passage of a cold front and a 500 mb trough through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the overnight hours tonight.
The 00Z KGGW Sounding confirms increasing temperature aloft, as the western ridge moves across the Divide. Strong southwest to northeast jet stream pushing into Montana tonight will flood warmer air from west to east tonight into Wednesday. The 12z models showed lesser chances of freezing rain for tonight and thus lowered PoPs. Winds crank up a bit Wednesday and followed the NBM closer, which gave stronger winds to the higher elevations (i.
804 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 A cold front will approach from the west overnight. The front will move across the area Wednesday while low pressure lifts north along the front. The cold front will exit across the maritimes Wednesday night.
Widespread VFR tonight in wake of a dry cold front. /issued 226 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017/ A cold front has moved through the area today bringing gusty northeast winds and very dry air. Clearing skies and light winds tonight will allow temps to drop to near freezing across southeast New Mexico, the Davis Mountains, and the Permian Basin while being marginally warmer in the Trans Pecos and Big Bend.