Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
131 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015 A WEDGE FRONT STALLED SOUTH OF THE CSRA WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S TONIGHT DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN LOW 90S. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS SHIFT THIS HIGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TODAY BUT THE INITIAL DRY LAYER IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO GO AWAY. WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER-MID 80S. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT SO MILD MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL OCCUR. A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL HAVE ABSORBED MUCH OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING GUSTY NW WINDS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WRN SD PLAINS.
340 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015 LOW PRESSURE AND A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN LATER TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST LIFT REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST AND A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE RIDGES WILL PROVIDE DOWNSLOPING/DRYING ACROSS LOCATIONS TO THE WEST OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE SURFACE FEATURE WILL PHASE WITH AN UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HAVE INCREASED WINDS ALONG AND DIRECTLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP MIXING LAYER AND PLENTY OF WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.
402 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015 ONE MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
The highest rain chances and subsequent higher rainfall totals are expected across the eastern half of the CWA, with lesser amounts along the KS/MO border. Precipitation will exit the area from west to east during overnight hours as a cold front moves through the region, with most locations dry by sunrise Wednesday. Highs will be a few degrees warmer on Wednesday than today, but breezy northwest winds will still make it feel a bit cool. Low temperatures are expected to fall into the lower to middle 30s in most areas outside of the KC Metro area.
1201 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 847 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2015/ SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING WITH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING MANY VALLEYS AT OR BELOW FREEZING. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AS A SHORT-LIVED RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE WIND SHIFT WILL ALLOW COOLER AIR TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH CAUSING HIGH TEMPS TO DROP A FEW DEGREES. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
MAIN BAND IS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR AND LIFTING NORTH. BUT GENERALLY LOOKING AT SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS REGION WIDE. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT OFF TO THE EAST THU INTO THU NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.
520 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015 A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
357 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015 A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A low pressure system continues to move south through the Northern Rockies this AM.
THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY ALLOWING THE SURFACE WINDS TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST. WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RACE SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. THE BREEZY POST-FRONTAL WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE AS PROGRESSIVE SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
This could result in temperatures approaching the freezing mark.
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING SOUTH ALONG WITH DRY LOW-LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY CHILLY READINGS IN THE 30S AND POSSIBLE FROST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BUT EXPECT WARM TEMPS AT THE SURFACE TO LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH COUNTRY.
448 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015 A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, WILL BRING ONE MORE DRY DAY TO THE AREA. A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM, OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WILL BRING RAINY, WINDY, AND MILD CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING CONTINUE TO LOOK RAINY AND WINDY, AS A SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENING CYCLONE LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION, AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES NY/PA FROM THE WEST. NAM/GFS PROFILES SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAKLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS (100-300 J/KG OF ML CAPE), JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, IN THE LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING PERIOD, SO A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WAS ADDED.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Rain at the MO/AR border has been slow to spread northward early this morning, although a secondary area of pcpn did develop farther north (roughly from KCOU to KMTO) overnight due to lift over a baroclinic zone which is acting as an effective warm front across central MO/IL. Those showers should continue spreading northward with the lifting warm front, although twenty degree dew point depressions noted on the cool/dry side of the boundary may limit accums until the bdry has lifted farther to the north.
258 AM PDT TUE OCT 27 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE REACHED THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE THICK ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM PLUMMETING IN THE VERY DRY SURFACE AIR. WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN NEVADA THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE TROUGH SHEARING APART AS IT REACHES THE COAST TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL VARY BETWEEN 8000-9000 FEET, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHEST SIERRA PASSES.
THE HIGH SURF/HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK ALSO CONTINUES OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW CIGS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN LA.
654 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015 A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, WILL BRING ONE MORE DRY DAY TO THE AREA. A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM, OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WILL BRING RAINY, WINDY, AND MILD CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING CONTINUE TO LOOK RAINY AND WINDY, AS A SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENING CYCLONE LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION, AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES NY/PA FROM THE WEST. NAM/GFS PROFILES SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAKLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS (100-300 J/KG OF ML CAPE), JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, IN THE LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING PERIOD, SO A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WAS ADDED.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS ONE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PASSES TO THE EAST. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN BEHIND IT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THE TROUGHS.
FIRST TROUGH MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF A WHEATLAND TO ALLIANCE LINE. WILL LIKELY SEE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT. CONTINUED BREEZY AT TIMES BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT.
434 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015 (Today and Tonight) It will be warmer today, with downslope southwest to west winds of 5 to 15 mph. Most areas should warm to highs into the lower 80s. A cold front will move into the Big Country along the I-20 corridor towards sunrise Wednesday. Atmospheric mixing with stronger winds near the front should keep temperatures slightly warmer in the lower 50s. Expect breezy north winds Wednesday with cooler highs in the lower to mid 70s.
318 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015 A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY IS FORECAST TO ABSORB THE SLOW-MOVING LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION. SO HAVE ACCEPTED THE HIGH GUIDANCE RAIN CHANCES OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. DID CUT GUIDANCE A BIT OVER NE LA INTO SOUTHWEST MS GIVEN THAT THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT GIVEN WEAK DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. DRIER WEATHER AND MORE SUN IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE TO DRY OUT SOME BEFORE WE HAVE TO DEAL WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
332 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015 Early Tuesday morning, an upper trough axis was making its way into western Kansas with several embedded areas of upper level energy embedded within the broader trough. The influx of quality low level moisture will interact with increasing (but modest) mid/upper level moisture associated with the trough incoming from the west. Clouds will keep high temperatures cooler than the past two days but will help modify tonight's lows. This will bring another chance for (mainly widely scattered) showers along with a cold front, increasing northwest winds, and cold advection by sunrise. As the deepening upper low lifts towards the Great Lakes region, winds and subsidence increase downstream during the day on Wednesday. The diurnal heating competing with the cold air advection will result in highs near the lower 60s.
AS THE HYBRID LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY INLAND OVER S CNTRL LA. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW/TROUGH HAS MADE ITS WAY FURTHER INLAND OVER S CNTRL MS INTO SW AL. AS BOTH THE SFC/UPPER LOW CONTINUE TO TRACK NWD. MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS MAY GET CLOSE TO 35 MPH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS SFC WINDS TURN MORE TOWARD THE W IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WED/EARLY THU. AND THEN QUICKLY TRANSLATING EWD INTO THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY REGIONS IN THE LATE SAT/SUN TIME FRAME.
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THE WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH. DIFFERENCES CONTINUE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL FOR THE APPROACHING TROUGH/UPPER-LEVEL LOW AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SEVERAL VORT CENTERS OF INTEREST WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 7000 FEET THIS EVENING AND 6000 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE MTNS OF SW AND WESTERN MT TONIGHT. A THIRD UPPER LEVEL FEATURE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO MT LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS.
324 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015 08z/3am surface analysis shows ridge of high pressure extending from New England southwestward to the Central Plains. Once the airmass moistens sufficiently and an upper-level trough approaching from the west provides increasing synoptic lift, rain will become widespread across the entire area by mid to late morning through the afternoon. Thanks to the rain and a brisk easterly wind of 10 to 15mph, high temperatures today will be considerably cooler than yesterday with readings remaining in the 50s in most locations. Forecast soundings remain quite stable, but do show modest elevated instability as the upper trough arrives. As the low lifts into the Great Lakes, showers will gradually diminish from southwest to northeast on Wednesday.
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW IS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A FRONTAL INVERSION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER MOISTURE PROFILE BEING FOUND IN ITS WAKE. THE MID WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT PREVAILS. A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.
THE ENERGY WILL DEVELOP A DECENT UPPER TROF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. A WEAK ELEVATED WARM FRONT AND A BAND OF MID-LEVEL F-GEN CONTINUES TO SIT ACROSS NRN WI AND PORTIONS OF WRN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE TO THE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AND THE NEXT S/W COMES BARRELING IN ON THE HEELS OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. BUT THE AMT OF WAA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE RATHER STRONG BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE DESERT SW.
DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL REMAIN PRESENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST TODAY.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD BUT WILL SHIFT WESTWARD A BIT THROUGH THE DAY. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
OVERALL A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES SWD WHILE MID LEVEL TEMPS DROP A BIT AND AFTN DEWPOINTS CREEP UP TO ABOUT 70 BY TUE. LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE ORIENTED OVER SRN GA WITH WEAK ELY FLOW PUSHING THE E COAST SEA BREEZE INLAND DURING THE DAY. WEAKER FLOW THOUGH WILL ENABLE THE W COAST SEA BREEZE TO PUSH INLAND AND MEET WITH THE E COAST BOUNDARY W OF THE HIGHWAY 301. A SUBTLE LOW LEVEL TROUGH MAY HELP INITIATE WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE INLAND AREAS NEAR AND W OF ALMA GA TO LIVE OAK FL. TEMPS ALOFT ARE ABOUT 1 DEG COOLER AND MEAN LAYER STEERING FLOW SPEEDS UP TO ABOUT 10 KT FROM THE W.
WITH VERY WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND S/WV RIDGING OVER THE REGION. MORE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IF ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST CAN MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AS S/WV TROUGH APPROACHES.
HIGH LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN. CONSENSUS OF MOS AND LLVL RH PROGS SUGGEST A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH.
AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL PASSAGE OF A TUESDAY MORNING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE MAINTAINED TODAY AS RIDGING ERODES WITH THE ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OUT OF THE MID WEST. AS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY EVENING IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DEEP MOISTURE WITH IT. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED UNTIL FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
334 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM AND MOSTLY DRY DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS RIDING ACROSS THE APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE APPEAR POISED TO OFFER WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AS WELL. A COLD FRONT AND OR PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL TEAM UP TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO THE EVENING.
READINGS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. SO WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT FOR THE MOST PART.
UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING, MOVING VERY LITTLE. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE LITTLE, MEANDERING NEAR RENO AND THE SIERRAS THROUGH 5 PM. THAT SAID, A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE AS THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION RECENTERS NEAR GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK BY 5 AM TUESDAY. UPPER LOW EJECTS TO WYOMING THROUGH THE DAY, WITH A BAGGY TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS NEVADA.
WINDY CONDITIONS AND SNOW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA WHERE TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 HAD FALLEN FROM THE MID 50S OF YESTERDAY MORNING. THIS COLD LAYER WILL THICKEN TO ABOUT A 800 MB WWITH A MUCH WARMER LAYER ALOFT TONIGHT.
THE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY TODAY AND WILL BE NEAR RENO BY THIS EVENING. THE STEERING FLOW FOR MOST OF TODAY WILL BE FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BUT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER EAST. THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE FROM CRATER LAKE EAST INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTY WITH MODELS SHOWING THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING FROM DIAMOND LAKE JUNCTION NORTH INTO DESCHUTES COUNTY. ON TUESDAY THE LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA BUT THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH.
TROF CURRENTLY OVER CA WILL KICK OUT AND INTO NCNTL PLAINS ON TUE AND ITS REPLACEMENT WILL DROP BACK INTO PLACE MID/LATE WEEK. ALTHOUGH SLIGHT H5 RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM MEXICO & GULF AS THIS OCCURS. UNSETTLED WX WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND (ESP SUN/MON) AS WESTERN TROF APPROACHES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WILL HELP TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO SE TX EARLY THU.
320 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2015 ANOTHER CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND IMPACT OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MOVED OVER WY AS PRECIP ENDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT.
459 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015 LATEST UA ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING WITH A BROAD TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE SE. A PAIR OF LOWS WERE SPINNING WITHIN THE TROF. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. EXPECT THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACRS CNTL LA. WEAK FLAT RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALOFT BY MIDWEEK.
105 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
221 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK.
406 AM CDT Mon May 18 2015 Satellite and observations are showing low clouds and dewpoints in the upper 60s in the lower Trans Pecos beginning to surge northwestward into the Permian Basin this morning. This moisture will push up against the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains this afternoon where daytime heating and an appropriately timed weak upper trough will initiate convection. Tuesday will see another round of convection with increasing southwesterly flow ahead of an upper low over the Four Corners developing a dryline over the western Permian Basin.
653 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY. THEN A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY.
357 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FROM THE MIDDWEEK UNTIL THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. A CD FNT XTNDG FM MN TO KS WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLC DURG THE 1ST HALF OF TUE GENERATING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. RETURN TO MORE SPRING-LIKE WX WED WITH MUCH DRIER/COOLER AIR MOVING INTO AREA.
350 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND FRONT STRETCHED SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE THE PAST WEEK. THE COLD FRONT DOES LAG BEHIND AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WHILE THE RIDGE DOES BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN TOMORROW THINK FORECAST WILL STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO THE SAME WITH DIURNALLY/AFTERNOON DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS.
CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO FIRE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND WEST TEXAS NEAR THE DRY LINE. TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER CALIFORNIA WILL SHEAR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES.
324 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015 LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY, WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
For today, a cold front will surge across southern Missouri, bringing a cooler and drier airmass to the region. Cooler readings are forecasted in central Missouri for Tuesday.
639 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
WITH SOME OF THE HIGH- RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN ITS WAKE. THE ASSOCIATED AMPLIFICATION OF THIS LONGWAVE WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL SUPPRESSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD ACROSS INDIANA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. AS FOR TEMPS WILL STICK CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAVMOS LOWS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN. GFS AND NAM BOTH SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO INDIANA BY MONDAY EVENING. BEST MOISTURE APPEARS TO HAVE EXITED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MID LEVEL DRYING.
AND TUESDAY INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA TO AREA NORTH OF LAKE HURON TODAY. SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING AS IT IS MARGINAL.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER CALIFORNIA/SOUTHER NEVADA OPENS UP AND TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH ONLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SLIGHT RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THIS REGION.
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN MONTANA AND WYOMING. REGARDING WINDS AND THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY: NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS WERE LIGHTER NEAR THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN MONTANA. THE ENTIRE AREA OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES. THE DILEMMA IS THAT A FREEZE WARNING WAS NOT ISSUED FOR COUNTIES IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY - THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMPLIED. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS TUESDAY MORNING. A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK.
OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN MOVING EAST. A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WILL NEAR THE RED RIVER THIS EVENING. AS THE WESTERN UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON TUESDAY.