Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
400 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019 Current sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the TN Valley and ridging swwd through the wrn Gulf Region, while a trof is noted extending from the sern CONUS to the nern Gulf. Water vapor imagery shows ridging centered to our west over far wrn TX while a cutoff low is noted moving out of the mid-South. 0 inches by this evening with mean RH values around 70 percent) will combine with daytime heating and little capping as the cutoff low continues drifting sswwd before merging with an inverted trof crossing the nrn Gulf to produce numerous showers/storm by this afternoon. POPs look a little lower west of the Sabine where some capping from the mid-level ridging could still be present.
The upper low will drift away from Middle Tennessee today and tonight, so we can expect less widespread storms this afternoon and also not as strong. High pressure aloft will start to build into region as the aforementioned low retreats, so look for temperatures to slowly increase during the next several days while POP's decrease.
The highest rain chances today will be in the west.
A stationary low pressure system over the pacnw was spinning moisture into the region and combining with daytime heating produced isold tsra and earlier nickel size hail fell in La Grande and in Lonerock Oregon.
327 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019 Upper level analysis shows a ridge positioned across the Desert Southwest to Central/Northern Plains with another one east of the region over the Bahamas.
150 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019 An unsettled weather pattern is setting up for the next couple of days, with an upper level high to the east. /issued 344 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2019/ Zonally oriented 500 mb mid level ridge will strengthen across the western Atlantic. A low pressure trough will advance from the northern Caribbean Sea towards south Florida, bringing a corresponding increase in deep layer moisture. The higher totals are expected towards the Gulf coast. Enough diurnal heating is expected to keep temperatures around seasonal normals, although if cloud cover becomes more widespread it's possible we could be a little cooler than currently forecast. Mid to upper ridging will become increasingly prominent from the eastern Gulf of Mexico into the Southeast CONUS. However temperature readings may start to creep up some with the ridge in place.
Low temperatures are forecast to range from the low-40s to low- 60s across the majority of Arizona's High Country.
Temperatures in the low to mid 90s with heat indices between 100-105 degrees are expected today.
148 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019 Strong daytime heating will push high temperatures into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees with heat indices in the lower to middle 90s over the next several days.
850 PM PDT Thu Jun 27 2019 An upper trough will continue situated over the Pacific Northwest while an upper ridge lies over the Desert Southwest. Mid-high level moisture from degenerating Alvin will flow northward across SoCal this weekend in the prevailing SW wind flow (as we remain situated between an upper level trough to our NW and an upper ridge to our SE). The fight between the trough to the northwest and the upper level ridge to the southeast should keep Southern California between them for mild conditions.
Similar to Thursday, today features onshore flow with scattered showers and thunderstorms as an 850 mb inverted trough moves beneath an area of high pressure to the north. Temperatures today reach the lower 90s across inland areas while locations along and east of I-95 struggle to reach the 90s. A subtle trough moving through the western periphery of the Bermuda high moves over the Florida Peninsula throughout the weekend.
328 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019 High pressure over the Carolinas will continue to provide hot and mainly dry weather. During Sat, the upper ridge and it's sfc counter part are progged to begin breaking down with a sfc cold front dropping southward, reaching the VA-NC border Sat evening. The mid level ridge, at least at 500mb shows signs of breaking down later in the weekend but strong a subsidence inversion still remains in the model sounding lower in the profile.
The local forecast area will remain beneath a broad weakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge overnight, with the remnants of a convectively-induced vort max expected to drop slowly southward across western TN/northern MS. A troughing west/ridging west pattern will otherwise be present into the late week. Despite more ridging closer to this region, sufficient moisture and daytime heating produced instability will bring isolated showers and storms to the area tomorrow.
408 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019 The latest surface map features broad high pressure east of the Mississippi River, with a stationary frontal boundary draped from the Midwest to along the northern portion of the Ohio Valley. Aloft, an upper level ridge is centered across the New Mexico/Texas border, with an upper level low pressure center spiraling across the Pacific Northwest. True summertime conditions will prevail through the short term, as upper level ridging controls across eastern Kentucky.
Mid level ridge sprawling from the Southwest into the Plains will remain in place through the weekend, shoving main storm track north across the Northern Plains.
Weak upper low remains over the region and that has helped keep lapse rates quite steep. This weak upper low is expected to move little farther southwest on Friday.
Radar and satellite imagery this morning show an upper level low continues to spin away near Memphis, with numerous thunderstorms on the west and south sides of the low already this morning in Arkansas and Mississippi and a few showers popping up on the east side in northwest Alabama.
At the surface, the region will be between high pressure to the east and low pressure over the Rockies, which will aid in warm, moist air getting pulled northward over the area.
Similar atmospheric conditions will be over eastern Montana today, with upper low over the Pacific Northwest and southwest mid-level flow into the state. Upper low lifts into Canada on Saturday with high pressure bringing downslope and drier air into eastern Montana.
The longwave pattern over the West has not changed much over the last 24 hours as an upper level low continues spin over the PacNW.
Better rain chances are expected Saturday with a crossing cold front. The 12Z PBZ sounding is showing warmer air aloft than 24 hours ago. Otherwise,warm and humid conditions are expected, with temperatures nearing 90 degrees outside of the higher terrain.
Better rain chances are expected Saturday with a crossing cold front.
448 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019 Today through tonight: The convective scenario for today could end up being similar to yesterday as we watch a meandering upper level low continue to dig southward around the eastern periphery of an expanding subtropical high over the central CONUS. Colder air aloft (H500 T ~ -10 deg C) and lift associated with the low will continue to interact with a very moist airmass to bring another round of potentially organized storms today per latest CAM guidance.
For Saturday, temperatures trend a degree or two warmer with similar atmospheric moisture. Moisture in the lower levels is lacking, but there is a general increase in mid to upper moisture on the backside of the Plains ridge.
Latest morning observations and visible satellite imagery are reporting partly cloudy skies and temps in the low 80's. Daytime highs will be a couple of degrees above average with temps in the low to mid 90's and heat indices between 100-104 degrees. A trough of low pressure moves over southern Florida. As the wave moves farther west into the gulf, high pressure builds to the northeast of Florida keeping an easterly flow over the area. This will produce sea breeze showers and storms over the east coast early afternoon and will move westward through the day with the highest coverage over the coastal waters late afternoon through the evening hours.
Today: A large-scale closed upper level low is now positioned over western Washington. Still, isolated showers or afternoon thunderstorms remain possible, particularly over the higher elevations.
447 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2019 Large upper low is sitting along the Pac NW coast, with upper ridging sitting across northern Great Plains. At the surface, low pressure is persistent across Wyoming. Thermal ridge across the CWA today will result in hot conditions. Weather will remain dry today and again Saturday, which will end up being the warmer of the two days.
746 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019 Stable high pressure will bring increasing warmth and humidity to the region through tonight. A cold front will settle south through the forecast area Saturday.
/Issued 315 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019/ Summer is definitely here finally and likely to stick around through much of the next seven days, with fairly normal summer conditions expected on the majority of days given the upper level ridge across the south central United States. Any diurnal thunderstorm chances will remain isolated and focused on the high terrain areas of northwest Arkansas and far southeast Oklahoma. On Saturday, thunderstorm chances will increase some, as a weakness in the ridge develops to our southeast and retrogrades westward from Louisiana across Texas.
Another hot and humid day can be expected across the area today with an upper ridge nosing in from the west.
The latest surface map features broad high pressure east of the Mississippi River, with a stationary frontal boundary draped from the Midwest to along the northern portion of the Ohio Valley. Aloft, an upper level ridge is centered across the New Mexico/Texas border, with an upper level low pressure center spiraling across the Pacific Northwest. True summertime conditions will prevail through the short term, as upper level ridging controls across eastern Kentucky. The models are in decent agreement showing an upper level ridge dominating the eastern CONUS for the first half of the week. This will continue to leave our area under the influence of an upper level ridge through the extended. Closer to the surface, high pressure will be locked over the southeastern portion of the state.
Both GFS and ECMWF models continue to show an upper level ridge axis extending from the High Plains states into NM/Far West Texas. This ridge of high pressure will maintain the current pattern of seasonable warm and muggy days under partly cloudy skies then transition to low clouds and patchy fog after midnight through sunrise. An inverted trough begins to move westward across the Gulf of Mexico along the TX coast this weekend. Saturday still looks to be another warm and muggy day before the effects of the upper level trough arrive.
High pressure will be northeast of the region this period, producing a moist onshore flow. An inverted trough over the coastal waters will continue to bring showers and storms inland off the waters through the day.
640 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019 An upper level ridge will build across the central plains leading to continued hot and dry conditions. The upper level ridge will dominate our weather pattern, which will likely keep most if not all of our area dry through the weekend. The main concern will be the high heat index values of 100-105, and the possibility that we may need to issue a heat advisory if these expected heat index values get any higher. The highest heat index values will likely be across our eastern zones where dewpoints will be the highest.
Areas near and South of Memphis is where we will see the highest pops today. Highs will likely be in the low to middle 80s for much of the area. This is arguably one of the toughest times of the year to forecast the weather beyond 24 hours because mesoscale features that are not resolved by models often dictate the weather as opposed to larger scale frontal boundaries or easily depicted upper level troughs and ridges. The exception is when the Bermuda high becomes parked along the East coast and a strong ridge in in place over the Eastern US. Highs will likely be in the upper 80s to low 90s with morning lows in the low 70s. By early afternoon, all sites will have a chance of VCTS as an upper level low pressure spins overhead.
619 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019 A mid/upper ridge across the southern Rockies is progged to build north and east across the region through the weekend.
High temperatures today through the upcoming work week should be in the low to middle 90s with heat indices generally between 96 and 101 degrees. The Synoptic pattern over the upcoming work week will feature a ridge over the Southeastern US that will slowly shift over the Appalachians late in the work week. The GFS continues to feature more of a dirty ridge, producing afternoon showers through the week, with drier conditions featured in the ECMWF.
Cooler temperatures will be in store today due to the increased cloud cover with higher temperatures only expected to reach the upper 60s to around 70.
As the Pacific trough continues onshore and over the Rocky Mountains, a bit unsettled weather will continue through the first half of the work week.
/issued 255 AM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019/ Mid-level water vapor shows a rich plume of moisture from nrn MX extending newd into e-ne NM, which was located within a weakness in the ridge aloft. Said moist axis will hang around through Thur at least and accordingly so PoPs will remain through Fri, warmer/drier Sat-Sun.
An upper level low moving over the western Gulf of Mexico is forecast to retrograde west-northwest into the Coastal Bend today and tonight, and into portions of South Texas on Monday.
A trough will gradually sag southward through the day. Anomalously strong mid-level ridging will then begin to build in across Appalachia on Monday night. Low-level flow will become southerly and will bring in much warmer, more humid air back into the region.
Cooler interior temperatures will persist through the middle part of the upcoming work week.
A weather disturbance will bring cooler temperatures and breezy winds today, but deliver drier air for a downturn in storm coverage.
A low pressure system will move through the region today. Best chances for rain will be over the high country. In terms of rainfall amounts, generally still looking at a quarter to half an inch of rain possible with higher amounts possible over portions of the high country. With the clouds and rain, expect noticeably cooler temps across the region.
Quiet weather early this morning with high pressure in control across the region. A quick recovery is expected, however, as strong subsidence from the ridge will result in a clear sky and dry conditions as temperatures soar into the low to mid 90s by this afternoon. The center of the upper-ridge will begin to shift east into the Tennessee Valley early this week as it becomes centered over Northern Alabama. With this 594 dm ridge amplifying over the area, we'll continue to see an uptick in temperatures with highs peaking in the mid to upper 90s both days.
/Issued 345 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2019/ Should be a mostly dry ridge dominated period for the majority of the area, while a stalled front remains near the southern CWA. Temps remain well above climo with most areas in the mid to upper 90s this afternoon and even a bit warmer for Monday. Baker Unseasonably hot conditions (near record heat) will continue through at least the middle of the week as a strong upper level ridge remains nearly centered over the Southeast/Southern Appalachians. Toward the end of the week, an easterly wave moving into the Gulf of Mexico is expected to break the ridge down slightly as sub-tropical moisture increases across the area.
Temperatures tonight will be noticeably cooler with most valley locations in the low to mid 40s with some higher elevation valleys dropping into the mid 30s early Monday morning. A frost advisory remains in effect for northern Elko County, along with southern portions of Lander and Eureka Counties and all of White Pine County where widespread cooler temperatures are expected tonight. Broad trough energy drops in over the Pacific NW Monday which may result in some isolated shower and thunderstorm activity across northern Humboldt County along with northern and eastern portions of Elko County.
Cooler temperatures will begin to erode thunderstorm development, which will create a weakening trend over the next few hours. Much cooler temperatures will hold in place today, as cloud coverage and wet weather work together. Heading into the new work week, High pressure will build across the southeastern US, creating a 500mb ridge formation. A couple Low pressure systems will move through the nation's mid- section during the week. However, with High pressure situated across the SE US, these systems will track northeast through the Plains and into the upper Midwest. This will lift warm fronts through the mid- Mississippi River Valley, pushing temperatures back to above normal.
/Issued 247 AM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019/ The latter half of the weekend will remain hot and rain-free, as the upper level ridge remains the dominant weather feature across North and Central Texas despite its eastward movement towards the Southeast US. With the upper ridge located across the Southeast, low-level southerly flow will allow moisture to slowly return by mid week across the region.
559 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2019 Upper ridge over the region will help produce above normal temperatures. Precipitable water values will be a little higher today than yesterday with the highest values east. The upper pattern flattens out, then ridge off to the south builds into the area to start off the week. Upper ridge continues over the area.
651 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2019 A few showers will be possible today ahead of an advancing warm front.
Morning temperatures running 2 to 4 degrees warmer than forecast which should lead to slightly higher highs this afternoon and slightly higher heat indices as well. High temperatures today through the upcoming work week should be in the low to middle 90s with heat indices generally between 96 and 101 degrees. The Synoptic pattern over the upcoming work week will feature a ridge over the Southeastern US that will slowly shift over the Appalachians late in the work week. The GFS continues to feature more of a dirty ridge, producing afternoon showers through the week, with drier conditions featured in the ECMWF.
Upper ridging centered to the southwest of Arkansas continues to keep the boundary at bay, and will shift through the region today and tonight. maybe even a few degrees warmer in areas that were behind the front yesterday. The ridge will be repositioned east of the area, with southerly and southwest upper flow returning. This will allow for a disturbance to move around the periphery of the ridge and into Arkansas, and could give us isolated diurnal showers/storms Monday.
trough slowly takes shape, scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will be possible across far western and northern Oklahoma next several days.
Elsewhere above normal temperatures will continue with highs reaching the low 90s in many areas. Monday: An upper level ridge will move through Sunday night into early Monday with quiet weather and continued above normal temperatures.
A warm front extended from the low through the northeastern portion of the state. Warmer temperatures and higher dewpoints were evident on surface maps south of the front, and widely scattered showers and thunderstorms were ongoing near and south of the boundary, aided by a LLJ south of I-70. On Monday, a mid-level trough axis from MT to KS will progress northward over the Northern Plains as another storm system digs over the Pacific Northwest. The pattern through the middle of the week will consist of southwest flow aloft with the area positioned between a mid-level ridge over the southeastern US and an amplified trough over the western US.
721 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2019 A cooler northeast flow will encompass the region through this taf period. Cooler and drier air continues to slip into southeast Michigan early this morning, as surface dew pts have dropped into the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Today appears to be the last of this persistently hot, dry pattern as the upper level ridge that has remained parked over the south central U.
It's these areas that will see the higher rain totals in the quarter to half inch range by noon. This saturated layer in the low levels will stick around into Monday morning, keeping drizzle a possibility into the overnight. On Monday morning the upper level flow will begin to switch to southwesterly as a longwave trough deepens over the western CONUS.
Weak high pressure will hold over the waters through Monday with rather light winds shifting to onshore with the sea breeze each afternoon.
The highest coverage of these showers should generally be along and south of I-88 through the mid to late morning hours. This is expected to occur as an upper level ridge amplifies over the southeastern CONUS.
On Monday and Monday night, a warm front will move slowly north into northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin. Most unstable CAPES climb up to 1K J/kg south of I-90 during the afternoon and up to 500 J/kg south of I-94 on Monday evening ahead of an approaching cold front.
Satellite imagery shows moisture from a deep Pacific trough making its way into central Idaho at this time. The trough axis will slowly rotate counterclockwise around a closed low pressure center easing its way southeast from off the coast of British Columbia. A cold front associated with this system passes over the northern Rockies later today as precipitation spreads over western Montana and north-central Idaho.
Dewpoints aren't expected to be too much higher than yesterday, but we should see temperatures a few degrees warmer, around 90 this afternoon in most places. Zonal flow will gradually give way to building high pressure over the southeast over the next day or two.
High temperatures south of the front will climb into the low to mid 90s once again.
1006 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2019 A few showers will be possible today ahead of an advancing warm front.
The biggest concern continues to be the hydrologic response to the larger low pressure system moving across the region midweek.
Around the mid and upper levels, forecast is between high pressure ridge over the lower MS valley and low pressure near 30n77w and helping support very light winds through 6 km, which the JAX sounding averaged to be only 1 knot through the layer.
The center of the upper ridge that has brought our prolonged, unseasonably warm weather for the last week has finally moved east of the forecast area. A mid-level trough moving onto the Middle Texas Coast on Monday may provide just enough enhanced ascent combined with diurnal instability for a few showers or thunderstorms.
411 AM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019 Quiet weather will remain in place for today and tonight as a high pressure ridge continues to sit across the area.
The 0Z NAM indicates it will rain in our area while most of the high-res models are dry or contain just a sprinkle or two. Tonight expect some patchy fog late with lows in the lower 60s. Updated at 345 AM EDT Sat Sep 8 2019 Monday morning, the 500mb ridge centered over the Midwest will continue to amplify. High pressure will continue to cover the southeastern United States. At the surface, high pressure sits over southeastern Canada with a widely spaced pressure gradient keeping winds light in southern Indiana and central Kentucky.
/issued 306 AM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019/ We have entered into the transition to a period of higher thunderstorm chances and seasonally warm temperatures as upper level high pressure has been broken down by a short wave trough moving across the northern Plains and shifted eastward by a fairly amplified short wave trough that has moved over the West Coast.
Subtropical ridge axis begins to shift northward across central Florida Monday and is forecast to lift north of Florida by mid week.
Consistent rain will linger in the Glacier Region on Monday as the low passes to the east, while showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected elsewhere.