Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
624 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 Another cool and quiescent night is on tap with high pressure solidly in control. Lows tonight should be a smidge "warmer" than last night, but still expecting a smattering of mid 30s in our typical cool spots, particularly across parts of the Fox River Valley. Crossover temperatures in the low to mid 40s will be attainable away from Chicago and the lake, with patchy shallow fog expected once again. A similarly beautiful day is in store on Friday, with highs a handful of degrees warmer than today.
541 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 (Tonight through Friday night) Broad, mid-level ridging will stand tall over Texas in the short term, with underlying high pressure and mostly seasonal weather through the short term.
Winds are moderate out of the northwest and is bringing in somewhat cooler and drier conditions across the area. Temperatures are in the upper 70s to near 80 with dew points in the lower to mid 70s. However, there is a couple of inhibition layers in the lower troposphere. Skies range from clear to the east and overcast to the west in what looks like a post cold front stratocumulus field. These breezes will maintain the cooler and drier conditions through this period. On this day in Keys' weather history in 1769, a British ship was wrecked by a tropical cyclone, washing up on Key Largo.
618 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 (This evening through Friday) Early afternoon upper-level water vapor imagery shows an upper low over northwestern Mexico with an upper ridge centered over west Texas and an upper low over the PNW. As the upper low digs southeast towards the Plains, upper flow over New Mexico will become more southwesterly. If clouds move in before sunrise, it will result in warmer lows than are currently forecast.
627 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 (This afternoon through Friday night) Weak upper lvl ridging will continue to provide quiescent weather for our region through the remainder of this week. 850 hpa temperatures will tick up by a degree or so on Friday afternoon and thus highs will be a degree or two warmer than today mainly in the mid to upper 80s w/a few 90s in the lowest elevations including the river valleys.
A Pacific weather system brings cooler temperatures, breezy conditions, and scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening with a few storms producing strong wind gusts and small hail through early this evening. Upper level low centered over northern ID this afternoon will slowly move southeast reaching NW WY by late Friday. Coverage of showers will decrease overall tonight but some more concentrated activity is possible across SW MT as the upper low moves closer as well as near Glacier park and east through Glacier ad Toole counties as moisture pivots northwestward around the low.
Onshore flow will weaken tonight into Friday with morning clouds across the coast and Southwest Interior, and into areas of the lowlands. An upper low will continue to move away from the area tonight with upper ridging building across the Pacific Northwest through Friday.
819 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 Temperatures will remain slightly cooler than normal for the next several days along with dry weather, influenced by persistent high pressure in the region. Nevertheless, some gradual air mass modification should bring a slight upward trend in temperatures over the upcoming day, with lows tonight in the lower 40s, and highs Friday in the lower 70s. Meanwhile, another high pressure system approaches the upper Great Lakes via Canada. Temperatures should reach highs in the lower to mid 70s each day.
Clear and dry conditions remain in the forecast overnight with lows in the low 50s to upper 40s as a area of high pressure continues to propagate over the area. For tonight, radiational cooling enhanced by light winds and clear skies will support overnight temperatures dipping into the low 50s and upper 40s. Friday will start off with morning temperatures in the low 50s.
631 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 Temperatures will remain slightly cooler than normal for the next several days along with dry weather, influenced by persistent high pressure in the region. Nevertheless, some gradual air mass modification should bring a slight upward trend in temperatures over the upcoming day, with lows tonight in the lower 40s, and highs Friday in the lower 70s. Meanwhile, another high pressure system approaches the upper Great Lakes via Canada. Temperatures should reach highs in the lower to mid 70s each day.
Weather map shows strong 1031mb high pressure over the Northeast U. continuing to ridge across the Midwest southward through the Gulf of Mexico, with Hurricane Ian off the Southeast U. There is a high pressure centered over MI that expands clear to the western Gulf Coast. With northerly flow calming down, look for a slight rebound of warmer temps.
9 PM temps were running around 2 degrees warmer over west TN than 24 hours ago, while the remainder of the Midsouth was on track with last evening.
758 PM MDT Thu Sep 29 2022 A Pacific weather system brings cooler temperatures, breezy conditions, and scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening with a few storms producing strong wind gusts and small hail through early this evening. Additionally, temperatures across the region will be cooler beginning tomorrow, with most locations lingering in the 60s. /ISSUED 720 PM MDT Thu Sep 29 2022/ Upper level low centered over northern ID this afternoon will slowly move southeast reaching NW WY by late Friday. Coverage of showers will decrease overall tonight but some more concentrated activity is possible across SW MT as the upper low moves closer as well as near Glacier park and east through Glacier ad Toole counties as moisture pivots northwestward around the low.
An upper level trough is moving over the Pacific Northwest today, and will settle over the northern/central Rockies by tomorrow. With this low off to our east, locally breezy northerly winds are forecast over the area, however no major impacts are expected. As this trough continues to shift eastward over the next few days toward the northern great plains, ridging will build back in behind it.
Forecast Key Points: - Dry and Seasonable Temperatures Continue As of 1230 PM Thursday afternoon broad, midlevel ridging continues across the southern Plains with quasi-zonal flow across our area.
553 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 For tonight, radiational cooling enhanced by light winds and clear skies will support overnight temperatures dipping into the low 50s and upper 40s. Friday will start off with morning temperatures in the low 50s.
Quiet/tranquil wx conditions prevail across the central TN Valley, as strong high pressure remains layered over the Midwest/OH Valley states. This sfc flow though will help maintain seasonably cooler temps heading into early Fri morning, with lows expected to be mainly in the mid/upper 40s for most spots, under predom clear skies.
18Z surface data has high pressure over the Great Lakes with a frontal boundary over the Plains. Quiet, dry and cooler than normal conditions will be seen tonight and Friday. Temperatures generally at or cooler than normal into early October.
Surface dewpoints remain elevated in the lower 40s so not overly concerned about frost. Sprawling high pressure centered over Lower Michigan with the center checking in at 1036 MB this morning (still holding around 1034 MB this afternoon).
Have opted to extend both the high rip current risk and the Coastal flood hazards.
High pressure was centered over the Texas Panhandle during the afternoon, making a move southeastward in response to a low pressure system moving over the western states. However, the low and upper dynamics for upward motion will be approaching far northern Arizona during the late afternoon on Friday with increasing chances of showers or a stray thunderstorms or two Friday night along the Arizona/Utah border.
13 (This evening through Friday Night) Influence under the upper level ridge situated over Texas and New Mexico holds steady through the evening allowing for clear skies to prevail. Reinforced northeasterly winds will continue as Tropical Storm Ian tightens the pressure gradient across the deep south by exiting off the Space Coast of FL and clashing with a ridge situated over the GLR. Overnight Friday into the weekend, lows will follow the warmer theme as they sit in the low to mid 50s, a few degrees warmer than expected this evening.
911 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022 Surface analysis this evening shows strong high pressure in place over the eastern Great Lakes. Water Vapor imagery shows a weak ridge in place stretching from the southern plains across Indiana to upstate NY. Aloft, the ridge is expected to remain in place keeping subsidence in place across Indiana. Given the dew points across the area, little change in the air mass and the ideal radiational cooling set-up, lows in the low to mid 40s appear on the mark.
554 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 (This evening through Friday Night) Influence under the upper level ridge situated over Texas and New Mexico holds steady through the evening allowing for clear skies to prevail. Reinforced northeasterly winds will continue as Tropical Storm Ian tightens the pressure gradient across the deep south by exiting off the Space Coast of FL and clashing with a ridge situated over the GLR. Overnight Friday into the weekend, lows will follow the warmer theme as they sit in the low to mid 50s, a few degrees warmer than expected this evening.
727 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022 Aviation Given the hard freeze this morning and also freezing temperatures on the 23rd, we have ended the growing season for the northern tier, namely the counties of Mason, Lake, Osceola and Clare. Clouds will not be an issue tonight with drying and subsidence under surface and upper ridging.
An upper-level trough is forecast to shift from the PACNW east across the NRN Rockies during the next 24 hours. As that occurs, model guidance shows an upper ridge building over the West Coast. Otherwise, ensemble forecast guidance indicates some semblance of a NERN PAC/West Coast ridge will prevail going into the late stages of the seven day forecast period, which should preclude the development of precipitation across NWRN CA.
These winds will usher in drier and much cooler air.
400 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Clear to partly cloudy skies will abound through the weekend as high pressure remains over the area. The trajectory of the air in the lower levels will help bring warmer air in from the east so temperatures should be a few to several degrees warmer this upcoming night.
05Z observations are showing a trough of low pressure in eastern Colorado leading to the continued breezy south to southeast winds across the region and keeping temperatures in the 60s. The mixed boundary layer should keep the overnight lows tonight a little warmer than the lows we've had over the previous nights. In the upper levels a weak ridge is in place over the central plains and a large low pressure system and trough is moving into the northern Rockies. Winds out of the south to southwest at 15-30 mph will help to usher in warmer air as well with 850 mb temperatures warming to 21-25 (C). Northwest flow aloft and weak leeside troughing over eastern Colorado will give way to warm temperatures and breezy south to southeast winds.
141 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Water vapor shows large upper low over ID, with short wave that brought some afternoon/evening convection to the area slowly dissipating over western SD.
254 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Showers and a few isolated thunderstorms were lifting north through the area early this morning as an upper low spins over the panhandle of Idaho/western Montana.
Temperatures thus far early this morning have been mostly in the lower to mid 40s, although some mid to upper 30s have been reported in the south central portions where some patchy frost is possible. Under high pressure and partly to mostly sunny skies, expect slightly above normal high temps with readings mostly in the mid 60s, except for cooler lower 60s near the Great Lakes shores where lake breeze circulations will develop.
1224 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022 (This afternoon through Friday night) Weak upper lvl ridging will continue to provide quiescent weather for our region through the remainder of this week. 850 hpa temperatures will tick up by a degree or so on Friday afternoon and thus highs will be a degree or two warmer than today mainly in the mid to upper 80s w/a few 90s in the lowest elevations including the river valleys.
The combination of Ian and high pressure to our north will maintain breezy northerly winds across our area today, although it will not be quite as breezy as the past couple of days.
A Pacific weather system brings cooler temperatures, breezy conditions, and scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening with a few storms producing strong wind gusts and small hail through early this evening. Additionally, temperatures across the region will be cooler beginning tomorrow, with most locations lingering in the 60s. /ISSUED 720 PM MDT Thu Sep 29 2022/ Upper level low centered over northern ID this afternoon will slowly move southeast reaching NW WY by late Friday. Coverage of showers will decrease overall tonight but some more concentrated activity is possible across SW MT as the upper low moves closer as well as near Glacier park and east through Glacier ad Toole counties as moisture pivots northwestward around the low.
1211 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022 (This evening through Friday) Early afternoon upper-level water vapor imagery shows an upper low over northwestern Mexico with an upper ridge centered over west Texas and an upper low over the PNW. As the upper low digs southeast towards the Plains, upper flow over New Mexico will become more southwesterly. If clouds move in before sunrise, it will result in warmer lows than are currently forecast.
316 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Discussion/Marine IR loop shows clear skies across the Lower Peninsula. High pressure is centered over northern Lower early this morning and will provide plenty of sunshine today. The next several days will be dry as high pressure over southern Canada maintains it's grip on the region.
Surface analysis this evening shows strong high pressure in place over the eastern Great Lakes. Water Vapor imagery shows a weak ridge in place stretching from the southern plains across Indiana to upstate NY. Aloft, the ridge is expected to remain in place keeping subsidence in place across Indiana. Given the dew points across the area, little change in the air mass and the ideal radiational cooling set-up, lows in the low to mid 40s appear on the mark.
05Z observations are showing a trough of low pressure in eastern Colorado leading to the continued breezy south to southeast winds across the region and keeping temperatures in the 60s. The mixed boundary layer should keep the overnight lows tonight a little warmer than the lows we've had over the previous nights. In the upper levels a weak ridge is in place over the central plains and a large low pressure system and trough is moving into the northern Rockies. Winds out of the south to southwest at 15-30 mph will help to usher in warmer air as well with 850 mb temperatures warming to 21-25 (C).
1117 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 Temperatures will remain slightly cooler than normal for the next several days along with dry weather, influenced by persistent high pressure in the region. Nevertheless, some gradual air mass modification should bring a slight upward trend in temperatures over the upcoming day, with lows tonight in the lower 40s, and highs Friday in the lower 70s. Meanwhile, another high pressure system approaches the upper Great Lakes via Canada. Temperatures should reach highs in the lower to mid 70s each day.
A weak trough passing through the region this weekend will help temperatures cool closer to seasonal normals. This afternoon, isolated convection sparked up favoring the higher terrain of south-central Mohave and southern Clark counties on queue. As mentioned in previous forecast discussions, an upper-level trough passing to our north will bring lower heights to the region, working to cool temperatures closer to seasonal normals as we go into the weekend, but could also aid in thunderstorm formation in northwestern Arizona due to added forcing mechanisms. As noted in the 00Z GFS ensemble means, a modest area of low pressure will strengthen over far northwestern Mexico over the next few days. Looking at this morning's 12Z runs of the ECMWF and GFS ensemble means, there is increased confidence in the strengthening of the aforementioned area of low pressure.
We should see a slight warming trend over the weekend with some highs in the low 80s over the southern and western cwfa.
Daytime highs will top out slightly warmer than observed Thursday, but still below normal.
Near-critical fire weather conditions will be possible this afternoon for areas along and west of a line from Gothenburg to Oxford to Phillipsburg, where relative humidity values will fall into the low to mid-20s. High temperatures are expected to be on the warmer side of guidance as warm, southeasterly winds usher in warmer air.
Afternoon high temps will once again be in the low 70s, but can't rule out our south-central KY counties warming into the mid 70s today. Rain chances associated with Ian will begin to filter into the I-75 corridor during the pre-dawn hours tomorrow morning, though ridging to our west will limit Ian from a westward push.
(Today through Thursday) Issued at 243 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Very quiet weather continues across the Midsouth as we remain under the influence of a ridge over the Plains and likely influenced by subsidence on the far outskirts of Hurricane Ian. The ridge over the Plains will strengthen over the next several days and shift to the east.
Not much change in the going forecast today through tonight, thanks to a large area of high pressure settled across the Great Lakes region. Tonight's lows will be in the lower to middle 40s.
1202 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Aviation Given the hard freeze this morning and also freezing temperatures on the 23rd, we have ended the growing season for the northern tier, namely the counties of Mason, Lake, Osceola and Clare. Clouds will not be an issue tonight with drying and subsidence under surface and upper ridging.
Sprawling high pressure centered over Lower Michigan with the center checking in at 1036 MB this morning (still holding around 1034 MB this afternoon).
227 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Broad upper ridging continues to be shown over the central and southern Plains on recent water vapor imagery. This appears to be resulting from modest inferred isentropic lift between the aforementioned ridge axes. 850 mb temperatures rise a couple degrees for a slightly warmer day today though expect more cloud cover and thus surface temps just a bit warmer than Thursday.
(Today and tonight) Benign weather is expected today as the CWA remains beneath weak mid/upper-level ridging centered over the central CONUS. The closed low will remain displaced far enough north to prevent a smaller, weaker cyclone over northern Sonora from transitioning into an open trough. The net result from the presence of these systems to the west of the CWA will be high-level cirrus deck streaming over the CWA today which will offset diabatic heating effects, with high temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday. Overnight, the presence of the cirrus deck should limit the outgoing longwave radiation with temperatures bottoming out in the middle-upper 50s across most of the CWA with the exception being the northwestern zones where temperatures in the lower 50s are expected.
1241 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Clear and dry conditions remain in the forecast overnight with lows in the low 50s to upper 40s as a area of high pressure continues to propagate over the area. For tonight, radiational cooling enhanced by light winds and clear skies will support overnight temperatures dipping into the low 50s and upper 40s. Friday will start off with morning temperatures in the low 50s.
1142 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 Weather map shows strong 1031mb high pressure over the Northeast U. continuing to ridge across the Midwest southward through the Gulf of Mexico, with Hurricane Ian off the Southeast U. There is a high pressure centered over MI that expands clear to the western Gulf Coast. With northerly flow calming down, look for a slight rebound of warmer temps.
1154 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 Another cool and quiescent night is on tap with high pressure solidly in control. Lows tonight should be a smidge "warmer" than last night, but still expecting a smattering of mid 30s in our typical cool spots, particularly across parts of the Fox River Valley. Crossover temperatures in the low to mid 40s will be attainable away from Chicago and the lake, with patchy shallow fog expected once again. A similarly beautiful day is in store on Friday, with highs a handful of degrees warmer than today.
(Today and tonight) As northern Rockies upper low progresses southward, increasing flow across central Rockies will result in lee trough intensification this morning and afternoon. This will tighten the lower level pressure gradient and result in moderate south winds across western Oklahoma.
Large area of strong/cool high pressure remains centered across the Great Lake region early this morning. Forecast period begins with the remnants of Hurricane Ian over North Carolina with high pressure centered over western Ontario and ridging through the Great Lakes region. This high pressure will provide mostly clear/partly cloudy skies and rain-free weather. As the remnants of Ian pushes northward against the strengthening high pressure over Ontario, the pressure gradient over northern Michigan tightens.
717 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Aviation IR loop shows clear skies across the Lower Peninsula. High pressure is centered over northern Lower early this morning and will provide plenty of sunshine today. The next several days will be dry as high pressure over southern Canada maintains it's grip on the region.
Lack of cloud cover will allow nighttime lows will drop into the mid 50s to low 60s inland and into the low to mid 70s along the coast.
Broad upper ridging continues to be shown over the central and southern Plains on recent water vapor imagery. This appears to be resulting from modest inferred isentropic lift between the aforementioned ridge axes.
905 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Little in the way of sensible weather is expected today as ~1028mb high pressure remains situated atop the region. Large area of strong/cool high pressure remains centered across the Great Lake region early this morning. Forecast period begins with the remnants of Hurricane Ian over North Carolina with high pressure centered over western Ontario and ridging through the Great Lakes region. This high pressure will provide mostly clear/partly cloudy skies and rain-free weather. As the remnants of Ian pushes northward against the strengthening high pressure over Ontario, the pressure gradient over northern Michigan tightens.
Surface ridging should finally get east of us, allowing for a little weak return flow to begin.
641 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022 We are now transitioning into the cooler pattern as that big bowling ball, otherwise known as a cut off upper level low, will meander around the area into the weekend. The difference today will be that the bulk of the showers will shift to East of the Divide, especially across the north and far south where the spokes of energy rotating around the upper level low will be located. With the cooler air in place, thunderstorms may be a bit less numerous. This is actually a bit warmer than yesterday though. Saturday looks like a similar day as the low spins near the Cowboy State.
717 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Expansive area of high pressure will continue to govern conditions this taf period. Central CONUS ridging maintains dry conditions across Southeast Michigan through the weekend as mid-high clouds increase along the periphery of the northwestern fringe of the inbound system.
Temperatures will warm to the low to mid 60s today, which is slightly below normal.
and Saturday A weak upper trough will move across the area today and produce middle and high clouds.