Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
914 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM JAMES BAY CANADA SOUTH TO VIRGINIA WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS ACTIVITY WASN'T REACHING THE GROUND AS THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE STILL VERY DRY. ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AS THEY WERE RUNNING COOLER THAN WHAT WAS IN PREVIOUS GRIDS. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 51 68 57 67 / 10 10 20 90 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 47 66 54 70 / 10 10 20 90 OAK RIDGE, TN 48 66 53 68 / 10 10 20 90 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 43 64 48 68 / 10 10 20 70 TN.
WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. WITH CONSIDERABLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK. DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NW NEW MEXICO WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING INCREASINGLY NWLY ACROSS SE ARIZONA AT THIS TIME. EXPECT FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING. MUCH OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA AND SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY WHERE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.
957 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY.
Satellite imagery shows the trough has shifted well to the east of the area with the flow aloft beginning to transition to anticyclonic in the wake of the trough and Ern Pac High. Cloud cover over the PacNW will be spilling into Norcal ahead of a warm front nearing the PacNW coast. There is a chance of some warm frontal light precip spreading into our Nrn mtns later tonite and Tue. and again with the weakening Pacific cold front as it drops Swd across the CA/OR border Tue nite and Wed. The higher resolution Comp Ref progs indicate the bulk of the higher reflectivities will stay outside of our CWA generally over Siskiyou/ Trinity counties. moderating max temps are expected due to strengthening Ern Pac ridging.
237 PM PST MON NOV 16 2015 CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHT WARMING TREND AHEAD FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO START THE DAY ON TUESDAY MORNING OVER PARTS OF SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT YESTERDAYS ACTIVE WEATHER IS NOW LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH IS A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE CLOUDS WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH RIDGING MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AIRSPACE AND FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE PATCHY DUE TO SLIGHT MIXING AVAILABLE WITH THE EXITING SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING INTO NORCAL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SLIGHTLY MODERATE BEGINNING TOMORROW.
516 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015 WV IMAGERY THIS AFTN SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROF CUTTING DOWN THE ROCKIES WITH A DEEP CLOSED OFF LOW SPINNING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. MODELS PROG THE CLOSED LOW TO RAPIDLY MIGRATE EWD TONIGHT AND REACH THE CNTRL PLAINS SHORTLY BEFORE 18Z TUES WITH INTENSE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT PRECEDING THIS SYSTEM. IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE AND BROAD UPPER TROF ENVELOPING THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS.
1035 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015 MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
932 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS SOUTH TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
630 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015 MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
SSE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA. AHEAD OF TSRA ALONG THE COLD FRONT, SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-35 KT WITH GUSTS ABOVE 40 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SITES ACROSS THE DELTA, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT POSSIBLE FARTHER EAST.
1034 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
402 PM MST MON NOV 16 2015 CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA IS STILL FORECAST BY MOST MODELS TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST ACRS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MODELS THEN SHOW THE LOW QUICKLY INTENSIFYING WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ACRS EXTREME SERN COLORADO AND EVENTUALLY UP INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY MORNING. CIRCULATION AROUND THIS LOW APPEARS TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN WITH THIS NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY. SNOW HEAVY AT TIMES ALREADY UNDERWAY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. STRONG UPPER LOW EXITING STAGE RIGHT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING WITH STILL SOME EXITING WRAP AROUND SNOWFALL OVER THE FAR NE PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING.
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SHOWS MOISTURE THAT HAD BEEN PUMPED INTO THE AREA BY A STORM SYSTEM NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION IS BEGINNING TO DRY OUT A BIT AS THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM SPINS UP AND WRAPS THE MOISTURE AROUND THE LOW. GAP FLOW WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND REACH A MAXIMUM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY INTENSE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEESIDE TROUGH. MODELS SHOW MOUNTAIN WAVE DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SPREAD WINDS INTO THE HARLOWTON AND BIG TIMBER AREAS.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW KEEPING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS SRN AR AND NRN LA EAST OF I-49. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY CENTER OVER EAST TEXAS DURING THE WEEKEND.
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY TOMORROW AS THE UPR RIDGE MAINTAINS CONTROL.
High cloud coverage across the tri-state area will keep highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, with the lowest temperatures along the coast where convection started early this morning. Temperatures will dip to the low to mid 70s, warmer along the immediate coastline.
EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE WARM FRONT NEAR US HIGHWAY 85.
607 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
1241 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015 UPPER AIR DATA ANALYSIS HAS A CLOSED LOW/TROUGH OVER WESTERN QUEBEC THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE RULE. TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM WERE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION INTO THE GREAT LAKES BUT KEEPS ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES RESULTING. QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSIT THE REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM. STORM MOTION DROPS BELOW 10 KTS AND FREEZING LEVELS HOVER AROUND 13K FT. THE MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE NORTHEAST FRINGE OF A STRONG SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE.
EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE WARM FRONT NEAR US HIGHWAY 85. WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON A RATHER POTENT SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES EMERGING FROM A TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS MONTANA/WYOMING.
152 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
145 PM PDT WED AUG 5 2015 A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VERY WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
327 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT RAIN INTO AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY NORTH. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH GENERALLY WEAK DYNAMICS AND LIMITED MOISTURE.
TONIGHT ANCHORED BY HIGH PRESSURE TUCKED BENEATH BENIGN MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW.
POPS WILL BEGIN A QUICK DECLINE THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
157 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THOUGH WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE NOT QUITE AS LIGHT WITH THE HIGH A TAD FARTHER EAST. LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL TEMPS AGAIN GIVEN FOR TONIGHT GIVEN LOWS THE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS.
206 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 UPPER TROUGH STILL CLOSE BY PROVIDING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MOST AREAS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER PATTERN. BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THIS AFTN AS RIDGE STRENGTHENS ALOFT. COOLER SSTS IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS IN SCEC RANGE.
AN U/L RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U. WHILE A L/W TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.
Later tonight a vigorous low pressure system and associated cold front will begin to nose its way into Northwest Montana. This strong cold front will move through the entire Northern Rockies during the day Thursday. This will be mainly a dry cold front with any shower or thunderstorm limited to Glacier NP and the rest of far NW Montana.
LOCATIONS AROUND TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER SO THEY WERE LEFT OUT OF THE ADVISORY.
AS PER MODELS NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THE CURRENT FCST OF HOTTER TEMPS/CONTINUED DRY WX FOR THE NEAR/MID TERMS AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST BUILDS EAST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. A DEEPENING TROF OVER THE EAST COAST COULD HELP NUDGE THE UPPER RIDGE A BIT MORE TO THE WEST. SLIGHT STREN- GTHENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW COULD INCREASE PWS TO AROUND 2" FOR THAT TIMEFRAME.
544 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
406 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND LINGER INTO THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ECWMF CONT TO HOLD ITS OWN WITH REGARDS TO HOLDING ON TO MORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE OH VALLEY BEFORE SECONDARY CYLCOGENESIS OVER THE PIEDMONT.
541 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
1256 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015 18Z TAF CYCLE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL BUILD INTO THE PANHANDLES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A BUILDING MEAN RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
418 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THURSDAY FOR NICE WEATHER.
157 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER KEYS.
307 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. LATEST 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO ILLINOIS.
AREAS OF FOG STILL LOOKING LIKE A DECENT BET OVERNIGHT BUT OVERALL DENSITY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN OWING TO WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE AND GENERAL UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR EAST THE LOW CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE. HIGHS WITH RAIN AND CLOUDS HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING TO THE 60S AS SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR AND COOLER AIR MASS PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE STATE SHOULD BRING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY, LIKELY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
222 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
323 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE REGION, DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING ACRS NY AND NRN PA THURSDAY. THE CONFLUENT NATURE OF THE FLOW AT MID TO UPPER-LEVELS WILL ALSO ALLOW SURFACE RIDGING TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA.
346 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015 A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA.
357 PM PDT WED AUG 5 2015 WARMER TODAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES PLUS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. AT 3 PM, MANY SITES IN THE VALLEY WERE RANGING 5 TO 13 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE IN DURING THE PERIOD.
429 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION FROM TOMORROW THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
Cooler temperatures, continued breezy conditions, along with a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms over the northern mountains are expected through Thursday in the wake of a cold front. Another threat of showers and thunderstorms arrives this weekend, as yet another low pressure system is expected to move into the region. The upper low pressure system brushing by to the north will drive today's conditions. The main issue will be winds and low RH as the passing trough acts as a surface dry cold front across the Columbia Basin. Today will be cooler than yesterday but still dry enough to achieve critical values of RH/Wind over most of the basin. /Fugazzi 18Z TAFS: A deep upper level low pressure system will set up over southern BC this afternoon into tonight.
/ISSUED 653 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015/ VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. /ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015/ THE BIG STORY PICTURE REMAINS THE SAME TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY EXPANDING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN IMPULSE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY. RMCQUEEN UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE ITS HOLD SQUARELY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY.
257 PM CDT A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS KEEPING GULF MOISTURE CONTAINED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA TODAY AND ALLOWING FOR COOLING ONSHORE FLOW IN LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKE. TOMORROW THUS LOOKS LIKE A CLOSE COPY OF TODAY THOUGH MAYBE JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.
424 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HELPS SPREAD SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FROM CANADA INTO THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY NORTH. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH GENERALLY WEAK DYNAMICS AND LIMITED MOISTURE.
119 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015 LARGE HUDSON BAY CLOSED LOW SENDING A BROAD TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. RIDGING INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PLAINS AND A CLOSED LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH TROUGHING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS MISSOURI AND A WAVE ROUNDING THE RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF CANADA. SUN WILL BE OUT LATE THIS MORNING AND WITH THAT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO THE LOW 80S. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE FIRST CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WITH MID LEVEL WESTERLIES INCREASING TO NEAR 45 KTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT.
502 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015 257 PM CDT A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS KEEPING GULF MOISTURE CONTAINED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA TODAY AND ALLOWING FOR COOLING ONSHORE FLOW IN LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKE. TOMORROW THUS LOOKS LIKE A CLOSE COPY OF TODAY THOUGH MAYBE JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.
Short range models indicate a weak upper level ridge axis transitioning east across the Western High Plains tonight and pushing further east into the Central Plains Thursday. An attendant cold front will push southeast into western Kansas Thursday afternoon which may provide enough forcing to support an isolated storm or two up near the I-70 corridor where upper level dynamics will be slightly more favorable due to a +70kt jet streaming east across Nebraska. NAM only has lower 90s, while other models have warmer temps.
THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER WEST TX AND THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL START TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. NAM RH GUIDANCE ALSO KEEPS THE MOISTURE VALUES UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS VERY LIMITED AND THIS WILL LIMIT ANY CLD COVER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURS NIGHT. SINCE THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN PRETTY LOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SEE NO REASON FOR THE DAYTIME HIGHS TOMORROW TO COOL OFF ANY.
/18Z TAFS/ DOMINATE HIGH PRESSURE RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD TREK BACK TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS TODAY RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION.
A weak cold front will briefly shift winds from the north and northeast, but they will settle back from the south by 12Z. Drier/warmer air near the Trans Pecos and Marfa Plateau have resulted in elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon. Gusty northwest winds will veer slightly to the north by this evening with the passage of a cold front.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH KDHT AND KGUY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND SHORT WAVE ON THE LEADING OF 850 MB WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD EAST. WITH WARMER AIR MOVING IN. TEMPS EVEN IN THE LOW CLOUD AREA IN CNTRL ND IN THE LOW 20S SO THINK IDEA OF AROUND 20 OR LOW 20S QUITE REASONABLE FOR HIGHS IN OUR AREA WEDNESDAY.
745 PM MST TUE JAN 19 2016 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY NORTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. STRONG JET LEVEL DIVERGENCE COMBINED WITH MOIST (ALBEIT WEAK) H7 FRONTOGENTICAL FORCING HAS ALLOWED A BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO BE MAINTAINED INTO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THOUGH OBSERVATIONAL READINGS SHOULD MODERATE LATER TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND CLOUD SHIELD.
BEST WINDOW FOR ICING PER FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL CKV/BNA 20/12Z-20/18Z. THIS FROZEN PCPN POTENTIAL THE RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRANSVERSING THE REGION 20/06Z-20/24Z WITH COLD AIR MASS CONTINUANCE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FROM INTERSTATE 40 NORTHWARD BUT FROM WHAT I'VE SEEN IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A SNOW EVENT BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE OUR WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.
SATELLITE SHOWS A NICE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS AGREE WELL WITH H5 LOW PRESSURE FEATURE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LOCATED OVER THE PARK RANGE OF NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING BY 5PM WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A -30C CORE OVERHEAD.
APPROACH OF UPPER LOW WILL KEEP WINDS GUSTY OVER WESTERN FOOTHILLS TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH FROM LIVINGSTON TO NYE. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS OREGON AND WASHINGTON AND WILL CREST THE RIDGE OVER IDAHO AND DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA AND INTO WYOMING TOMORROW. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT THE SYSTEMS TRIP OVER THE RIDGE DISORIENTS IT AND PREVENTS THE ORGANIZATION NECESSARY TO INFLUENCE THE WIND FIELDS EFFECTIVELY AND WE KEEP A STRONG DOWNSLOPE WIND GRADIENT. AS THE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH WYOMING WEDNESDAY IT OPENS THE DOOR TO A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA.
301 PM MST TUE JAN 19 2016 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY NORTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF A FAST- MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE CA COAST. EXCEPT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.
HEADING BACK TOWARDS FREEZING BY THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN TO START THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OR CALM AS ANTICYCLONE CENTER DRIFTS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TOWARDS THE LOWER END OF MOS.
resulting in pockets of brief moderate sleet/freezing rain this evening. although could see a few more hours of light freezing drizzle.
604 PM CST TUE JAN 19 2016 Wrapping up a messy forecast this afternoon as areas of freezing drizzle slowly transition over to light snow across the southwestern half of the CWA.
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE POTENTIAL PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG OVERNIGHT.
624 PM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
632 PM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FOLLOW IT.
914 PM CST TUE JAN 19 2016 SFC ANALYSIS AT 03Z SHOWED COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM N TX THROUGH W C TX WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG IT SE OF THE METROPLEX. FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TOMORROW.
540 PM CST TUE JAN 19 2016 CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
SYSTEM IS FAST MOVING SO DON'T EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOUNTAIN SNOW WITH A GAP AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE SECONDARY TROF MOVES IN LATER WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH IMPROVED OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH THE DAY ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. TOO MUCH DOWNSLOPE AND THE LOWER LEVELS AND TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PCPN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
Areas of drizzle/freezing drizzle over NE OK will spread into NW AR early this evening. however limited moisture return will allow temps to quickly wet bulb below freezing once precipitation becomes more widespread. The result will be a period of light snow and light freezing drizzle primarily across far eastern OK / western AR this evening.
552 PM CST TUE JAN 19 2016 High pressure ridge axis losing ground to approaching upper level disturbance this evening.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES HAVE HELD FAST OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TODAY. WHAT I/M SAYING IS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW FREEZING SPOTS WHEN PRECIPITATION STARTS TO FALL. TRANSITIONING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING OR TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE IN OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT ALL RAIN IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH SECTIONS AS A WARM FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT. A WARM NOSE AT 850 MB SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND CHANGE THE SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN BEFORE ENDING. EXPECT SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN MOST PREVALENT ALONG/EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. IS POSSIBLE AS THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF MOVES FROM CENTRAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS EVENING.
Further S, strongest forcing remains below the DGZ as the prev shift mentioned and with a warmer profile, have continued lower SLRs. Have trended cooler with ely sfc winds and anticipated snow cover. The next trof will bring a chance of RA or SN to the area in the Mon or Tues period.
959 PM CST TUE JAN 19 2016 A LINE OF BROKEN CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HRS JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS ENTERING THE NWRN ZONES. /ISSUED 540 PM CST TUE JAN 19 2016/ CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
939 PM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FOLLOW IT.