Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Snow has developed over northern North Dakota, and over southern areas of North Dakota as initial wave wrapping around upper low pushes through the area. A negatively tilted trough will deepen over North Dakota this afternoon and a strong cold front will swing through late this morning. This is where the low pressure center is expected to pivot and bring wrap around moisture overnight Monday and into Tuesday morning. Strong cold air advection will push in behind the cold front today. The high-res models want to bring in a band of moderate snow just east of Bismarck and pivot it up through Jamestown.
Aside from reduced visibility, possibly degrading to a quarter mile in most prone areas, a light glaze is possible across roadways as temperatures continue to cool to below freezing. The beginnings of a significant pattern change are now visible on water vapor imagery in the form of a deepening upper level trough positioned over the Northern Rockies. Energy from its parent upper low over Saskatchewan will push this feature southeast with further strengthening expected by this afternoon. This will turn slightly above normal temperatures Monday in the lower 50s to frigid temperatures by the latter half of the week.
Lows tonight ranging from the mid 60s in Hamilton county to the lower 70s in Barber county. Strong 597 dm upper high will remain stationary over the Great Basin Thursday, allowing NW flow to persist aloft. Confident of cooler temperatures on Friday, with convective debris clouds and an east component to surface winds holding most locales in the 80s.
/issued 744 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016/ High pressure centered northeast of the region will keep southeasterly winds in place. Synoptically, powerful Bermuda ridge will be the dominant feature impacting South Florida weather through the short term. Although overall weather pattern is not expected to change through the extended, several features moving westward around the base of the deep-layer ridge will influence South Florida weather.
With the amount of instability and moisture present there will likely be convective development during the afternoon and possibly lasting into the evening hours on Thursday as an upper level trough makes passage. There looks to be relative lull in precipitation coverage overnight Thursday into much of the day on Friday in the wake of the trough passage. An upper level trof will remain over our region through the weekend with a surface front bisecting the PAH forecast area from north to south.
Over the next couple days, the weakness in the mid/upper level ridge will slowly fill in to replace the cyclonic shear axis that brought some needed rain to much of the area.
Cooler and less humid today. A cold front is in far southern lower MI, moving slowly southward. Cooler/drier air making slow inroads into the forecast area; dew points in eastern upper MI are down in the mid/upper 50s, but still linger in the mid 60s in far southern sections. This occurs as high pressure over southern Manitoba extends ridging eastward, just north of Superior. Seasonable then turning warmer once again.
Then, this afternoon, with a low and mid level theta-e ridge axis in place, expect scattered thunderstorms along and east of a Douglas to Laramie line, with progged CAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg early in the afternoon and shear of 45 to 50 knots helping to produce isolated severe storms producing large hail and damaging winds in the slight risk area. Upper ridge builds over the Rockies and high plains this weekend.
A degree or two cooler today following yesterday's weak short wave trough then back up to yesterday's temps on Friday.
211 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 High pressure over the region will keep above normal temperatures in the forecast through the end of the week. An upper level ridge remains along with a weak lee-side trough over the area. Large scale subsidence will allow for another hot day with 850 mb temperatures near or slightly warmer than previous days. The chance for showers and thunderstorms remains low with the ridge aloft and a drier atmosphere. The ridge will weaken Friday as an upper trough moves eastward. The synoptic pattern supports above normal temperatures with highs in the mid/upper 90s and overnight lows in the low/mid 70s.
along the residual upper trough axis extending SW of the weak upper low now shifting NE over Wrn TN/Nrn MS.
321 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016 Persistence prevails today as West TX and SE NM remain under NE flow aloft with an upper ridge centered to the NW. Best chances look to be across the Davis Mountains and east through the lower Trans Pecos however pinpointing any given thunderstorm location is fairly difficult at this time. MOS guidance has been too cool the last few days so will stay on the warmer side with forecasted highs in the mid to upper 90s. The upper ridge begins to expand east into the Southern Plains Friday through the weekend, ending rain chances for most locations.
The synoptic pattern early this morning features a ridge across the western CONUS, with a low-amplitude trough across the Northeast. Instability is not very impressive, but low centroid storms in this high PWAT airmass has resulted in heavy rain makers which will continue to push off to the northeast through the morning hours.
SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): Water vapor imagery shows lingering moisture associated with weak mid level troughing across the region. precip may become more isolated in nature given that high pressure will be expanding back into the region. with the high pressure coming back into play.
The highest concentration will likely be this afternoon and evening north of Interstate 96. An area of low pressure will move along the front Thursday and Thursday night across Illinois and Indiana. Friday looks to be dry with high pressure building in. The highest concentration of showers and storms will be this evening, in the heating of the day. As we move from Thursday night into Friday high pressure should gradually take more control as the boundary pushes towards the Ohio River.
Instability is more than sufficient for severe, but appears low for typical derecho events and the low level moisture distribution is not ideal.
Additionally, convection coverage and strength remains in question due to all the cloud cover and rain prior to the passage of the low and aforementioned trough.
A weak warm front extended east of this low across central Wisconsin. For today, a slow moving upper level low and inverted trough will move south across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. The highest values are located across southwest Wisconsin. This makes sense, because this area has the highest probability of seeing some sunshine today.
A building upper level ridge will shift east through the weekend while a trough moves into the Pacific Northwest region.
Satellite imagery this morning shows some westward movement of high pressure over the Great Basin and moist air that has been pooling over Old Mexico is beginning to expand into California.
The front slowly slips offshore on Friday as low pressure track easts along the front offshore of Cape Cod.
124 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 High pressure will expand across the Carolinas, maintaining uncomfortable levels of heat and humidity this week.
A stationary front is lingering across southern IL, with a cold front approaching from eastern Iowa and SW Wisconsin. The convective initiation prior to the cold front arriving will be random and more difficult to pin-point. High resolution models are pointing toward an increase in storm coverage this afternoon mainly tied to the arrival of the cold front from the northwest. The timing of the cold frontal passage is difficult to discern in the models, but based on surface wind projections, it looks to reach I-55 by Noon, and push southeast of our counties by 6 pm.
347 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 Low pressure will move northeast across the Ohio Valley region today and tonight.
317 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 A weak cold front will briefly stall across the area today then continue south to the coast tonight. The front will push offshore Friday into Friday night as low pressure along the front tracks south of the area. Cold front is on our doorstep with isold showers breaking out ahd of it. A weak cold front stalled along the coast early Friday will allow for the chance of showers Downeast as northern areas become partly cloudy. As the low approaches, there will likely be a period of steadier stratiform rain over Downeast coastal areas with some showers or patchy rain further inland. The low will exit east Friday night as high pressure builds in from the west bringing clearing and slightly cooler and drier air across the region.
Forecast Confidence Medium Scattered showers and storms will taper off from northwest to southeast as the inverted trough sags into IL and drier air finally streams in on northeast winds. Temperatures will cool into the lower 60s away from Lake Michigan, with some upper 50s in the far northwest CWA.
304 AM PDT THU JUL 28 2016 A ridge of high pressure continue to bring hot temperatures through the weekend. A strong ridge of high pressure over the southwestern CONUS and the Great Basin will continue to be the prevailing weather feature for our area the next few days.
A deep layer ridge will continue to be anchored just southeast of the area through the period producing a light south to southwest flow and hot/humid conditions. Coastal areas will be slightly cooler due to the afternoon seabreeze.
317 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016 The short term period will see a weak h700-h500 trough slide across the forecast area impacting mainly west central through south central North Dakota with showers and scattered thunderstorms this morning through early evening. Another pleasantly cool day for July is expected Thursday with highs mainly in the low to mid 70s.
Like the past few days locally heavy rainfall/limited flooding will be possible mainly across south central Missouri due to the high moisture content in the atmosphere.
Evening WV loop showing two mid/upper level highs centered across Great Basin and just offshore coast of Carolinas (respectively) with a weak vort max sandwiched between them across AR/MS/LA. In the lower levels. while a weak lee trough persists east of the mtns thru Thursday. Temps should be a few degrees cooler (upper 80s low 90s) N Ga with more cloud cover/shifting of ridge. The main east- west oriented upper ridge continues to control the weather pattern across the southeastern states.
Bermuda Ridge oriented NW- SE from the FL Big Bend to the Nrn Bahamas continues to dominate the lcl WX pattern, generating a deep E/SE flow that will usher an unseasonably dry/stable airmass into the central FL peninsula. The Bermuda Ridge will sit and spin over the next 24hrs as the largely zonal H30-H20 jet pattern over the nrn tier states is far too weak to dislodge it. The dry airmass is forecast to largely hold as mid- upper high extends right across the area. Immediate coastal sections south of the Cape will see highs in the lower 90s.
Meanwhile, The cold front will approach far northeast Illinois (and adjacent Lake Michigan) by daybreak, and then continue inland with onshore flow today. And while not a perfect pattern for this, strong low level lapse rates and moist low level conditions (Td's in the low to mid 70s near PNT) with a slow moving upper wave moving overhead could support a few funnel clouds in the coming days.
/Canadian border today, and push a sizable ridge across our forecast area Friday.
1205 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016 Cold front extending from central MN into northern NE will push into the area tonight. Thus precip chances across the area remain slim at best tonight but with the front moving into the area, will still maintain a 20% chance, with all precip chances winding down by daybreak Thursday as high pressure continues to build into the area. Will go dry for Thursday with high pressure and northerly flow, with below normal temps in the lower to mid 80s. All precip chances remain well west of the forecast area across the High Plains.
119 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 A cold front will approach tonight and stall across central areas on Thursday. For Thursday, the cold front is forecast to slowly slide s and then stall across the downeast region Thursday afternoon. A cold front is expected to stall across the outer Gulf of Maine Friday Night. Low pressure is then expected to move northeast along the front.
Skies will also begin to clear from the north allowing for a bit cooler night tonight with inland temps dropping to lower to mid 50s. The trough moves into the northern Rockies and Northern Plains 12z Mon. A 500 mb ridge will build back into the central plains 12z Tue with the trough topping the ridge over the northern plains. More troughing moves into the northern Rockies 12z Wed with a cold front moving through the area. Will have some low chance pops starting on Tue as a warm front approaches the area and continue these into Wed as a cold front moves towards the area. High pressure, building across the Upper Great Lakes Region tonight, will linger across Lake Superior into the upcoming weekend.
344 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 Strong high pressure will remain off the Southeast coast through the end of the week with a weak frontal boundary lingering over the area today. By tonight/Friday the aforementioned weak boundary washes out near the Mason-Dixon line and we'll wait for the next cold front to approach from the north by late Friday. Highs Friday from the upr 80s north to the low/mid 90s south.
Upper high pressure continues over the Great Basin, keeping light N-NW flow aloft over Colorado. The upper high will remain in place over the next 24 hrs, so another hot day with recycled moisture for the higher terrain is on tap. Specifics will depend on how much moisture advects westward and strength of the trough, but there could be round of more organized storms developing near the mountains during the late afternoon and moving eastward during the evening.
607 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 A wave of low pressure traveling along a slow moving frontal boundary will produce thunderstorms with heavy rainfall mainly in southern locations today and tonight.
Low level jet forecast to increase Sat night over ND in response to upper trough moving into southwest Canada. Southerly flow ahead of the system will see warmer temperatures and increasing moisture.
1128 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016 Convection is starting to deepen over the Laramie Range and vicinity this afternoon as expected, with cu starting to bubble over the Pine Ridge and even the Cheyenne Ridge as well. Down south across the Cheyenne Ridge, stratus may develop in moist upslope flow. For Thursday, models continue to show a favorable setup for severe weather across the high plains.
307 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016 An inverted trough over western Wisconsin will shift south today, while high pressure over south central Canada will slowly approach the Northern Plains and western Great Lakes region. The high pressure will build into the Northland tonight and Friday, leading to clearer skies. The quiet period continues as an area of high pressure will dominate the weather across the forecast area through the weekend.
It will continue to be warm and muggy overnight with the high dewpoints and increasing clouds.
Instability will be lacking on Friday with a relatively cool easterly upslope regime in the low levels. Not seeing much forcing for precipitation on the synoptic scale, but cannot rule out a few non-severe storms developing in the afternoon on the higher terrain of eastern Colorado then moving into western parts of the area in the evening.
Northwest flow aloft continues Friday as the upper level ridge of high pressure remains centered across the desert southwest.
A strong U/L ridge will hold over the Florida peninsula today. Combined with the strong subsidence aloft associated with the U/L ridge, convection will be suppressed this afternoon across west central and southwest Florida. The U/L ridge will shift east on Friday with heights lowering a bit over Florida. Although temperatures will continue to run above climatic normals, the increased convection should hold high temps on Friday to the lower to mid 90s.
Upper level ridging and weak low level onshore flow will linger over Western Washington through Friday resulting in sunny days and above normal temperatures. An upper level trough passing to the north of the area will bring lower temperatures over the weekend.
The short term period will see a weak h700-h500 trough slide across the forecast area impacting mainly west central through south central North Dakota with showers and scattered thunderstorms this morning through early evening. Another pleasantly cool day for July is expected Thursday with highs mainly in the low to mid 70s.
A short wave trough is slowly moving across the area from west to east with a surface reflection of a cold front. The cold front does not make it all the way through the forecast area as previous progs placed which comes as no surprise for this time of year. With the upper trough still poised to move through will not tamper with watch but will likely need adjusting on the day shift. Large dome of high pressure aloft over southern 2/3 contiguous U. will be periodically bleated by northern stream energy spilling overtop ridge, including overtop portions of Mississippi valley/PAH FA.
with high pressure gradually building into the region behind the front on Thursday. Weak and increasingly diffuse cold front making slow progress south across northern Michigan. As mentioned, that upstream waves dampens on its approach overnight, with the cold front working south helping stabilize the environment in its wake.
415 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016 (Today and Tonight) An upper level ridge remains centered across the Great Basin region, while West Central Texas remains on the eastern periphery of the ridge. Overnight lows will mainly be in the low to mid 70s.
Friday is going to a little warmer than today with less thunderstorm activity. The highest chance for storms will be near Glacier NP Friday afternoon.
Activity is resulting from the weak upper low and associated trof axis currently located along the Mississippi River.
Very warm conditions will persist inland through the remainder of the week as high pressure remains over the west. Meanwhile, cooler temperatures will continue near the coast as a result of weak onshore flow. Slight cooling is expected over the weekend as an upper level trough develops off of the Pacific Northwest Coast.
and Friday Noisy broad upper trough over the Great Lakes region will provide more clouds as well as a few periods of showers today into this evening and perhaps toward southern Wisconsin on Friday. Short waves will dive into the upper trough today through Friday to continue to gradually deepen the upper trough.
/issued 215 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/ Northeast to east mid level flow between an upper level ridge near the Four Corners Region and a weak inverted trough across east Texas will continue through Thursday. Beyond Thursday through the weekend, deep easterly flow aloft will continue between an upper level ridge centered in the southern Rockies and a westward moving disturbance in central Mexico.
convective coverage today is a little greater than the past couple of days thanks to the presence of a weak upper low over the southeastern half of the state. This will kick the low east of Arkansas.
324 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016 Weather map shows weakening pressure gradient over the NW Gulf as high pressure builds eastward across the northern Gulf. Low pressure trof axis aloft much less defined this morning, generally over SE TX/LA. This cause the mid/upper trof weaker and less defined, but displaced further north today, and a weak sfc trof over the arklatex expected to generate convection later this morning. DML SE to S winds 10-15 kts and seas 2-3 ft expected today and Friday, diminishing a bit by the weekend as as high pressure becomes established over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue today as general low pressure weakness aloft remains over the region.
322 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016 An upper level trough will take shape across the region for the next several days. Highs will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s range, with lows hanging out in the low/mid 70s. Towards the very end of the forecast, the ridge currently located near the 4 corners area will begin to build eastward which would lead to a slight increase in temps and decrease in overall rain chances. low level ridging across southeast Alabama will likely keep prevent lower cigs from developing at KMGM or KTOI, but could some sct-bkn cigs arnd 3000 feet agl.
Clouds over the NE area of the forecast area may delay heating somewhat but a very moist environment across most of the forecast area with dewpoints as high as the lower to mid 70s and CAPE Values of 1000-2000 J per KG within moderately strong mid level winds.
Forecast area will remain on the western periphery of ridging (both surface and aloft) through tonight. A weak upper trof just to the west and northwest of the forecast area (near the Mississippi River basin) will remain in that same general location while weakening even further thru tonight. but the ridging previous noted keeps most of this energy to the northwest of the forecast area. Max temps will overall be slightly warmer than the past several days. Lows tonight in the low to mid 70s inland and the upper 70s at the coast.
404 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 A wave of low pressure traveling along a slow moving frontal boundary will produce thunderstorms with heavy rainfall mainly in southern locations today and tonight.
An initial surface front has pushed south of the forecast area with a secondary cold front located over far northwest Missouri. Temperatures are expected to remain slightly below normal with highs in the lower to middle 80s.
Main QLCS may just clip the western and southwestern counties of the forecast area and will keep the higher precipitation chances focused there. By Friday, the mid-level trough will still be in place across the eastern U.
On Friday, isolated thunderstorm are possible, mainly over North Central MT as the upper level ridge builds to our West.
436 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016 Upper level analysis reveals 597 dam ridge of high pressure centered over the desert southwest.
Subtropical ridge will remain in place over the southeastern states today, with any significant forcing remaining well north and west of the local area. Combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s, this will yield heat index values up to around 107 degrees, just short of Heat Advisory criteria.
400 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016 Radar mosaic clearly showing the upper trough axis along the spine of the MS river this morning. This evening, the trough axis should be nearing the spine of the Appalachians and therefore, the widespread coverage should be exiting the Plateau.
The upper level ridge will begin to shift back eastward on Friday.
320 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 High pressure over the region will keep above normal temperatures in the forecast through the end of the week. Upper level ridge continues over the Southeastern states and offshore. Boundary layer temperatures along with local scheme suggests it will be warmer today than yesterday by 1 to 2 degrees. The ridge will weaken Friday as an upper trough moves eastward. The synoptic pattern supports above normal temperatures with highs in the mid/upper 90s and overnight lows in the low/mid 70s.
Most of the convection was southeast of the forecast area, associated with a slow moving, compact upper level low/vorticity maximum. High temperatures today will be similar to yesterdays highs, maybe a degree or two cooler. GKS Convection tonight may be mainly during the evening hours, with slightly cooler low temperatures due to potentially less cloud cover. Temperatures on Friday should be slightly cooler due to the increased cloud cover and potentially better coverage of precipitation.
A weak ridge will develop Friday night leading to dry weather conditions.
A deep layered area of high pressure off the Atlantic coast of Florida continues to be the major synoptic feature late in the week.