Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
548 AM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 A high pressure will linger across the region today and Thursday behind yesterday's cold front. Cold air advection over warmer bodies of water could result in steam fog late Wednesday night into Thursday, reducing visibilities in the river valleys and near local lakes and ponds.
319 AM MDT Wed Sep 8 2021 The H500 hand analysis map is showing ~600dam ridge centered over the Great Basin. The high center will slowly translate to southeast of the 4 Corners over the next 48 hours and keep hot. Very dry and warm conditions continue through the rest of the week as high pressure remains firmly in place overhead, also allowing smoke to remain trapped.
As of 07z today, isolated to scattered convection continues to gradually march southeast ahead of an approaching surface cold front. After 18z, the cold front will be clear of the CWA, and precipitation chances will be done locally. Behind the cold front, skies will rapidly clear as the atmospheric column dries out. High temperatures today will reach the lower to middle 80s with overnight lows dropping into the middle 50s.
721 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021 Aviation - A few showers/storms later today into this evening - Cooler than normal pattern next few days - Warming up over the weekend - A few showers/storms later today into this evening Deep cyclonic flow persists today.
Rain chances will steadily increase west to east through the afternoon, reaching 60-70% By this evening and overnight, the disturbance in the GOMEX that NHC gives a 50% chance of tropical development will approach the FL Panhandle then become absorbed in a deep trough stretching through the South. Near normal temperatures today and tonight, with highs reaching the low 90s and lows in the mid 70s. Also, The building long period swell will continue the potential for hazardous boating conditions near inlets within a few hours each side of the low tide.
631 AM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 Quiet weather continues for the short term as strong upper level ridging remains in place across the western US. After a cooler day yesterday, warm air advection will push warmer air back into the region for today and tomorrow. This will easily allow for surface temperatures to rise into the 80s today and into the low 80s to low 90s for Thursday.
616 AM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 Following a cold front that moved through the area earlier tonight, today will see quite a change from yesterday.
Dewpoints fall from the lower 70s across NW GA and central AL, to the low-mid 60s across middle TN, then into the mid 50s behind the second front. The rest of the short term period will be driven by dry NW flow, as a trough axis remains to the east and high pressure builds over the area.
Upper air analysis tonight showed strong high pressure centered over the Intermountain West.
332 AM MDT Wed Sep 8 2021 Upper ridging across the western U. THis will lead to mainly dry and warmer weather conditions.
Upper level ridging was centered over the Great Basin while an upper low was noted north of Lake Superior per the 07Z water vapor imagery. At the surface, a high pressure system was building south through the plains with lower dewpoint temperatures gradually moving south.
The rain chances will also continue, especially across the north, overnight as the trough/potential tropical system starts to settle into the region. Highs today should reach into the upper 80s north to the lower 90s south.
Temps Thursday probably about 1 degree cooler than today.
Thus, despite steep low- level lapse rates and only modest ridging across the CWA, expecting a mostly (if not completely) dry forecast for the Florida Keys island chain. From synopsis, a weak, broad ridge will persist across the Florida Keys coastal waters through the end of the week, resulting in continued light to gentle breezes.
Regional wildfire smoke will begin to settle into valley locations Wednesday night into Thursday morning as a ridge of high pressure remains overhead.
/issued 218 AM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021/ An amplified pattern over North America with a robust upper ridge centered over Utah and a broad trough over the eastern CONUS anchored by an upper low over eastern Ontario is allowing a cold front to push southward through the southern Plains this morning. Progged thickness values suggest highs about 2-5 degrees cooler than yesterday with a wind switch from south/southwest to east/northeast likely supporting another 2-4 degrees of cooling for much of the forecast area, especially to the west of the Caprock escarpment. Return to a southerly component to the low level flow tonight will not be quick enough to bring meaningful low level moisture back into the forecast area.
740 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021 GA will remain on the southern end of an upper trough north of the Great Lakes. The deepening Canadian trough will push another front into GA late tonight and Thursday with some drying across north GA.
Hot, dry, and hazy conditons will continue through the week as strong high pressure builds overhead. The upper high was centered over NV at 00Z and was up to and anomalously high 599dam at 500mb. The center of the upper high is forecast to move slowly southeast over the next couple of days and should be over the NM/CO border by late Thursday.
506 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021 GA will remain on the southern end of an upper trough north of the Great Lakes. The deepening Canadian trough will push another front into GA late tonight and Thursday with some drying across north GA.
Most areas will see dry conditions for much of the upcoming week as high pressure settles over the region. Strong upper level high remains planted over Utah today with southern AZ under a deep easterly flow regime. MOS guidance drops dewpoints into the low 50s around the Tucson area, however given the abnormally moist and green conditions that is likely on the low side. At this time, given the current situation, CAM solutions and mental model am leaning on some convection developing over the higher terrain as far east as the the Tucson area then moving west through the latter half of the afternoon into the early evening. Thursday through the weekend, the combination of the upper level high and drying from the east will be pretty effective in suppressing convection.
439 AM PDT Wed Sep 8 2021 High pressure will continue above average high temperatures for inland areas into the weekend.
438 AM MDT Wed Sep 8 2021 The northwest flow will become more westerly today as the strong ridge flattens a bit. The ridge axis will pass over the state this evening.
626 AM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 The overall pattern over the region remains a dry one, with a stout mid-level ridge over the western CONUS, and downstream trof over the Great Lakes. That western ridge does get pushed down a bit as it translates to the east on Thursday, but with heights still building across the Northern Plains. Mild temperatures for today will turn warmer on Thursday as that ridge pushes in a warmer airmass to the region. Overall, the model blend temps look okay but did tweak numbers up a tad in a couple areas where MOS guidance was warmer and looked better.
559 AM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 A more amplified flow pattern has set up now with closed low over Ontario and ridge over Intermountain West. This has left region in cyclonic upper flow with subtle short wave troughs rotating around back side of trough. Have kept higher spotty rain threat in Wisconsin, closer to trough, but could skirt into neighboring counties as well. Mean ridge axis will shift east to close out the week before flattening as psuedo zonal flow sets up.
1020 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021 A cold front will approach from the northwest this afternoon then move slowly southeast through central North Carolina tonight and Thursday. Drier and cooler high pressure pressure will build into the region thereafter. Once this moves out into VA, another round of scattered showers and storms are expected this afternoon and evening with peak heating and an approaching cold front out of the Ohio Valley. Lingering showers/low cloudiness and cooler Thursday. The cold front is expected to stretch from NE to SW through central NC at 12z/Thursday beginning the day.
Lingering high pressure will keep high temperatures near record high levels today and again on Thursday.
330 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Few Lake Effect Showers This Evening - Cooler than Normal Pattern Until the Weekend - Weekend Warmup - Few Lake Effect Showers This Evening - An amplified upper air pattern persists as deep cyclonic flow sets up over the eastern half of the country.
The diurnal CU and TCU will move out and/or dissipate during the evening, leaving mostly clear skies overnight into Thursday night as high pressure currently centered over the Plains shifts east across the area.
Surface cold front has exited southeast as evidenced by veered westerly winds and departure of quasi-linear shower/thunderstorm activity. Base of amplified northern stream longwave featuring a closed low through 200 mb remains overhead today. Inherited temperatures remain on-track with highs in the mid-upper 70s and overnight lows in the low-mid 50s. Established anticyclone remains anchored over the Four Corners region Thursday while inbound Pacific wave initiates downstream compression of resident upper trough once wedged ridge axis pivots through central Canada. This results in confluent flow aloft with mainly dry and slightly cooler conditions as temps peak in the low- mid 70s.
Heavy rainfall and isolated thunderstorms are still anticipated as a strong fetch off the Gulf aids in increasing PWs ahead of a cold front progged to move through the FA this evening. GA will remain on the southern end of an upper trough north of the Great Lakes. The deepening Canadian trough will push another front into GA late tonight and Thursday with some drying across north GA.
320 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021 A line of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front continues its journey to the southeast through Kentucky.
Dew points have fallen off nicely across areas north of I-40 in the wake of last night's cold front, a trend that is likely to spread into southeast Oklahoma through the rest of the afternoon and into the overnight. Upper level ridging currently over the western United States will build eastward late this week and into the weekend, bringing another stretch of well above normal temperatures to the region.
Overnight lows are expected to be a couple degrees warmer than this morning, but overall pretty similar.
Issued by National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1215 PM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 Quiet weather continues for the short term as strong upper level ridging remains in place across the western US. After a cooler day yesterday, warm air advection will push warmer air back into the region for today and tomorrow. This will easily allow for surface temperatures to rise into the 80s today and into the low 80s to low 90s for Thursday.
/Wednesday Night through Thursday Night/ Pleasant, early Fall-like conditions will be reinforced across the Ark-La-Tex tonight as a cold front continues to drift into our southern zones. Temperatures in the low-to-mid 60s and dew points in the low to mid 50s, especially north of the I-20 corridor, will allow temperatures to fall several degrees below normal for this time of the year. Dew points will remain well below average in the lower-50s nearly area wide, underscoring how ideal conditions will be for outdoor activities. Northeasterly winds will wane by Thursday night, allowing some radiational cooling to kick in and push low temperatures into the low-to-mid 60s area wide.
1155 AM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 A high pressure will linger across the region today and Thursday behind yesterday's cold front. Cold air advection over warmer bodies of water could result in steam fog late Wednesday night into Thursday, reducing visibilities in the river valleys and near local lakes and ponds.
Subsidence due to high pressure at the surface and aloft is expected to persist through the short term period resulting in drier than normal conditions with PWAT's to around 1.
1117 AM MDT Wed Sep 8 2021 18Z TAF CYCLE Upper high centered over UT and will slide sewd to north central NM during the next 24 hrs. Hot, dry, and hazy conditons will continue through the week as strong high pressure builds overhead. The upper high was centered over NV at 00Z and was up to and anomalously high 599dam at 500mb. The center of the upper high is forecast to move slowly southeast over the next couple of days and should be over the NM/CO border by late Thursday.
Cold front in southern OK this morning pushing south and still looks to be traversing SETX overnight and early Thursday. Reinforcing cold front moves through CLL around 09z and IAH/HOU 12-15z.
253 PM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 An upper level trough was centered over the Great Lakes region with an upper level ridge centered over UT.
1220 PM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 A more amplified flow pattern has set up now with closed low over Ontario and ridge over Intermountain West. This has left region in cyclonic upper flow with subtle short wave troughs rotating around back side of trough. Have kept higher spotty rain threat in Wisconsin, closer to trough, but could skirt into neighboring counties as well. Mean ridge axis will shift east to close out the week before flattening as psuedo zonal flow sets up.
The overall pattern over the region remains a dry one, with a stout mid-level ridge over the western CONUS, and downstream trof over the Great Lakes. That western ridge does get pushed down a bit as it translates to the east on Thursday, but with heights still building across the Northern Plains. Mild temperatures for today will turn warmer on Thursday as that ridge pushes in a warmer airmass to the region. Overall, the model blend temps look okay but did tweak numbers up a tad in a couple areas where MOS guidance was warmer and looked better.
347 PM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 Quite the pleasant afternoon across the region with temperatures in the low 80s, very low humidity, and a northerly breeze.
313 PM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 This afternoon through Thursday: increasingly dry and subsident northwest flow will send a cold front through the forecast area as we go through the remainder of the afternoon and tonight. Beyond that, we'll see high pressure and a much more comfortable airmass build over the region with temperatures and humidity falling below climatological normals.
There is a chance for fog to develop overnight as high pressure nudges in from the west.
(Today and tonight) The main feature to watch on the weather map this morning is the cold front as it drops steadily into north Texas. Given the inverted-V signature on multiple forecast soundings, along with modest winds from a mid- level disturbance rotating around the upper-ridge, there is ample support for gusty winds and possibly some small hail this afternoon and evening from any storms that develop. Low temperatures will likely be a few degrees cooler than the past several nights due to the drier airmass moving in.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night): A mid-level ridge centered over the Great Basin will slowly move southeast into the four corners region through the short term. Lows tonight and Thursday night will fall into the lower 70s though a few locations across the Ranchlands could see upper 60s.
Remnant outflow from this complex continues to produce some northwest surface winds, however a dry cold front will reinforce north to northwesterly surface winds across all terminals, especially after 09/06Z.
Otherwise, a cold front pushing through the area will bring drier air and VFR conditions. A cold front is currently approaching northwest portions of the ArkLaMiss region as expected. Sfc moisture should mix out a bit, but drier air is also advecting in from the north ahead of the next cold front/reinforcing shot of cooler air dipping into the eastern half of the CONUS. The short wave is digging into the low over the Great Lakes region, further amplifying the pattern at h5, and sending another front this way in the overnight hours. In the wake of the upcoming cold front, noticeably drier air will advect into the region on Thursday.
337 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021 Some lake effect rain showers are expected tonight into Thursday as the cooler air overspreads the region. Highs will be in the lower to middle 70s Thursday and then warm into the 80s this weekend. Gradual thermal moderation into the weekend as Great Basin mid level ridge builds eastward into the Lower Ohio Valley.
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021 Aviation - A few showers/storms later today into this evening - Cooler than normal pattern next few days - Warming up over the weekend - A few showers/storms later today into this evening Deep cyclonic flow persists today.
Heavy rainfall and isolated thunderstorms are still anticipated as a strong fetch off the Gulf aids in increasing PWs ahead of a cold front progged to move through the FA this evening. /Issued 740 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021/ GA will remain on the southern end of an upper trough north of the Great Lakes. The deepening Canadian trough will push another front into GA late tonight and Thursday with some drying across north GA.
The result is broad and weak ridging in the vicinity of the Florida Keys, with a weak trough in the Central Gulf of Mexico to the west.
A cold front is currently approaching northwest portions of the ArkLaMiss region as expected. Sfc moisture should mix out a bit, but drier air is also advecting in from the north ahead of the next cold front/reinforcing shot of cooler air dipping into the eastern half of the CONUS. The short wave is digging into the low over the Great Lakes region, further amplifying the pattern at h5, and sending another front this way in the overnight hours. In the wake of the upcoming cold front, noticeably drier air will advect into the region on Thursday.
Following a cold front that moved through the area earlier tonight, today will see quite a change from yesterday.
In the wake of the cold front, dew points have tumbled into the upper 40s at some locations, such as kpah and kfwc. Tonight through Thursday night, high pressure will move east into the Mississippi Valley.
Dry weather will then continue until Thursday afternoon when a second trough, currently in the Eastern Pacific, begins to impact the region.
1249 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021 A cold front will bring showers to the area today. Cooler, drier weather will follow, with just a slight chance of showers north of Pittsburgh oh Thursday. Upper level jet ascent, and frontogenesis are present with the surface cold front moving through the Ohio Valley. As low pressure pivots eastward over Hudson Bay, lingering vorticity advection will provide an isolated source for ascent for scattered showers on Thursday, generally north of Pittsburgh.
A cold front currently stretching from near Louisville, KY to Little Rock, AR will continue to push toward the Tennessee Valley this afternoon. The rest of the short term period will be driven by dry NW flow, as a trough axis remains to the east and high pressure builds over the area.
Unfortunately, the break from the heat will be rather short lived, as an upper level ridge over the Intermountain West inches eastward Thursday. Subsidence ahead of this feature will combine with increasing SSW winds, owing to weak lee troughing developing in eastern CO, to force temperatures back into the low to mid 90s.
239 PM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 Gusty winds from the north were observed across the region today as a cooler and drier airmass advected in from northern Plains. Another nice day is on tap for Thursday, with highs in the low to mid 80s.
A weak cold front is moving through Central Texas toward the south.
Morning lows should dip the the lower 50s for most, with a couple reports of upper 40s probable in northeast Nebraska.
1233 PM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 (Today and tonight) The main feature to watch on the weather map this morning is the cold front as it drops steadily into north Texas. Given the inverted-V signature on multiple forecast soundings, along with modest winds from a mid- level disturbance rotating around the upper-ridge, there is ample support for gusty winds and possibly some small hail this afternoon and evening from any storms that develop. Low temperatures will likely be a few degrees cooler than the past several nights due to the drier airmass moving in.
Unfortunately, the break from the heat will be rather short lived, as an upper level ridge over the Intermountain West inches eastward Thursday. Subsidence ahead of this feature will combine with increasing SSW winds, owing to weak lee troughing developing in eastern CO, to force temperatures back into the low to mid 90s. The upper ridge over the western states will build eastward over the northern and central Plains through the latter part of this week.
Currently there is broken cloud coverage over areas along and north of I-94 in NE MN and NW WI, with scattered cloud cover in SW WI and cooler temperatures in the mid-60s to low 70s across the area.
1246 PM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 A cold front continues to move through south Arkansas. A cold front will drop south through the state through this afternoon. Today Through Thursday Night A cold front is dropping south into the state early this Wed morning. Dewpts will drop into the 40s and 50s by this afternoon well behind the cold front as a NRLY breeze develops behind the front.
242 PM MDT Wed Sep 8 2021 Temperatures are above normal as a strong ridge of high pressure remains centered overhead and stretches across the entire western half of the country. Unfortunately, this also means smoke from the numerous wildfires burning across NorCal, the PacNW and Intermountain West remains trapped underneath this high and is recirculating around it. The lows are cooler as well and haven't been quite as warm, so adjusted both highs and lows down a couple degrees and blended with the cooler end of guidance to account for this. This high pressure area will remain directly overhead through Thursday so do not anticipate much change to the forecast day to day. An approaching low pressure system off the PacNW coast gradually shifts the center of high pressure from the Four Corners to the spine of the Southern Rockies.
WV imagery indicates fairly deep anticyclone extending from the Great Basin/Four Corners region northward through southern AB/SK, supporting the very warm and dry air mass that will slowly shift eastward onto the Plains in coming days. Deep ridging shifts eastward over the next 24 to 36 hours, bringing with it 850 mb to 700 mb temperatures above the 90th percentile per the NAEFS.
127 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021 Cooler and drier air will move in for today and Thursday. Some lake effect rain showers are expected tonight and Thursday as the cooler air overspreads the region. Storms associated with a cold front and upper level system have weakened and moved out of the area early this morning. Cooler and drier air will continue to spread over the area behind a cold front.
317 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021 A disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms over the north- central Gulf of Mexico has a 60 percent chance of tropical development over the next 48 hours as it begins to lift to the NE across the FL panhandle and SE US along a remnant frontal boundary and upper trough.
357 PM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 A pleasant and dry next three days is expected as a cold front reaches our area sometime tonight into tomorrow. High pressure ridging in will help keep rainfall chances low through the weekend. Dew points will see a drop tomorrow in the wake of the cold front which will be the leading cause to the more pleasant feeling temperatures. Overnight lows will be in the lower 60s for most areas and a few spots near the upper 50s mainly across our MS counties.
High temperatures Thursday afternoon are expected to range from the upper 60s across the north, with highs in the lower 70s across east-central Wisconsin.
LW Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 65 82 60 83 / 20 20 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 63 81 58 81 / 30 40 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 86 61 80 57 81 / 30 40 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 62 78 53 78 / 30 40 0 0 0.