Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A stronger cold front will move in from the west during the middle of the week. Cooler and drier air is expected for the end of the week. Highs will range through the 80s nearly everywhere, but hold in the u70s in the higher elevs of the west. The highest chance will be Tuesday into Wed. A rather strong upper level trough will move across the area by late in the week, with a much cooler and drier air airmass by late in the week. The new 12Z GFS has a stronger upper level wave dropping southeast into the mean trough further out in time compared to the 00Z GFS, thus think the weather will be active again further out toward mid August, with several shots of cooler air drop southeast.
412 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2019 An upper level trough is currently sitting over the east coast of the United States. This will keep the ridging to our south and winds out of the southwest to west direction. Ridging will stay south of Florida for the work week.
As mentioned in the updated Aviation Discussion, below, a sagging cold frontal boundary could hand up across the southern RRV early Monday morning with areas of lower clouds and lingering showers in the mix. should produce overall drier and a somewhat cooler conditions. expect generally dry and settled conditions with a light northwesterly flow and fair skies, though temperatures are likely to stay a bit warmer than previously expected. nearer seasonal normals in the lower to middle 80s.
The upper high over the SW will move a bit east by the end of the week. But the subsident profile of this ridging looks to only move as far east as SW LA.
Early this morning, numerous thunderstorms were occurring in response to a short wave trough/pv anomaly dropping southeast out of Canada along with a surface front. Indications by all ops models and hi-res models show this surface front and short wave trough descending southeast through the morning hours bringing thunderstorms to our cwa.
The best chance for convection will be toward the weekend when an upper low will move inland and bring southwest flow aloft, with increasing moisture return.
Even though mid level drying associated with the ridge gradually expanding to the east will affect South Texas today, sufficient moisture and instability should lead to isolated to scattered convection as sea breeze boundary provides some focus for lift across the coastal plains. But the mid level ridge will continue to expand to the east and models show moisture depth will be decreasing as well.
1131 PM MDT Sun Aug 4 2019 Current upper level analysis has ridge over the Four Corners region with the Northern Plains on the down stream side of the ridge axis. At the surface, weak high pressure is nosing into western SD with frontal boundary across southern SD into northeast WY. Clouds and slightly cooler air in place will result in highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. The rest of the week looks similar, with upper high remaining over the Four Corners region and fairly active flow wrapping around the high.
We will remain under the same basic synoptic pattern over the next several days, featuring a ridge to our West and a trough to our East and North to Northwest flow across the Middle and Upper Mississippi River Valley.
Today's weather was thanks to an upper level ridge over the plains and high pressure over northern Missouri. A weak cold front remains expected to slide into the area Monday night into Tuesday morning.
High temperatures are expected to get in the lower 90s, possibly a few mid 90s in portions of ne FL, with values around 90 coast. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 70s.
An upper level ridge will remain anchored across the Southwest U.
321 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019 The upper level ridge continues to persist over the southwestern United States, keeping our area in northwest flow aloft yet again. At the surface, high pressure centered over northern Missouri will provide the basis for a dry and seasonal Monday across the area. We are looking at a similar day to yesterday, albeit slightly warmer with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s alongside partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly winds. The area will likely remain dry into Monday night before a weak cold front moves in starting early Tuesday morning, bringing our next shot at light rain. The aforementioned cold front will approach our area from the north during throughout the day on Tuesday.
At the surface, a weak and ill-defined ridge axis is lingering across the area as evident by the aforementioned southeast winds. Aloft, water vapor imagery continues to show an elongated trough over the north central Gulf and extending back to the southwest. By Tuesday, the axis of the subtropical ridge will become better defined and shift northward across our area and into south Florida.
311 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019 On the large-scale this morning, broad northwest flow prevails overhead, downstream of a building upper ridge axis across the Four Corners region. Along the surface, high pressure that brought nice weather to our region yesterday continues to retreat off to our east this morning, with surface observations showing a cold front draped across the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Shwrs and storms will linger through the morning hours on Tuesday before drier conditions return by mid to late afternoon as high pressure builds in from the north.
930 PM PDT Sun Aug 4 2019 High pressure over the Southwest will continue hot days inland through Monday. It will begin to cool on Tuesday, and trend cooler through the remainder of the workweek as the ridge weakens and a trough develops over California.
636 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2019 Upper level system today, followed by high pressure.
Satellite water vapor imagery shows a mid/upper trough with the axis currently located over the mid-Ohio Valley region. As this trough rotates eastward, ascent will be maximized (for the PBZ CWA) over the Allegheny Front, especially areas south of the Mason-Dixon. Modest mid-level lapse rates and warm, moist air in the lower PBL will yield MLCAPE values somewhere in the neighborhood of 500-1000 J/kg, slightly better than yesterday.
The environment will become highly unstable along a cold front moving southward through SD and MN this afternoon.
/issued 412 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2019/ An upper level trough is currently sitting over the east coast of the United States. This will keep the ridging to our south and winds out of the southwest to west direction. Ridging will stay south of Florida for the work week.
Thunderstorms will be most numerous across the high country of central and eastern Arizona.
SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): Currently 500 mb ridging remains centered over the southwestern US while troughing situates across the eastern US and the northern Gulf of Mexico. During the short term, the ridge will start to expand southeastward across Texas which helps to nudge the trough eastward on Tuesday. Tuesday will be more limited in areal coverage as the 20% pops will concentrate mainly east of the highway 281/I-69C corridor.
An upper ridge will bring dry and warmer weather through Tuesday. An upper trough over the Northeast Pacific will slowly shift over the area later this week, cooling highs to near normal and bring a chance of showers late in the week.
Storms may linger through the evening across se Ga due to proximity of upper trough and vertical shear.
VFR conditions will continue today with the mid-level ridge off to the nw. An upper ridge will remain anchored near or over the region for the next several days. Much of the week ahead looks dry with the exception of isolated storms in the higher terrain during the afternoons and early evenings.
Dry weather is in store for tonight with low temperatures in the low to mid 70s. The upper ridge over the four corners area will drift eastward into central Texas through mid to late week.
Associated sfc cold front will provide more lift while a 300 mb jet streak enhances/deepens the upward motion. Wed shows more promise for higher/more widespread rain chances as another cold front drops southeast across the region, associated with an upper level trough moving east across Canada. The local area looks to hold under northwest flow a loft for the latter half of the week with a bit cooler and less humid air.
The upper ridge axis has shifted a little to the west and thus, the flow aloft was slightly northwest with a little better shear. The upper ridge axis amplifies into northern Idaho and this confines the deeper monsoon moisture over southwest Montana and the mountainous and foothills locations south of Billings. A cold front will push through the area Tuesday night, but impacts from ensembles were limited. Models have come in with a more amplified ridge axis along the Continental Divide west of the forecast area.
313 AM PDT Mon Aug 5 2019 High pressure to the east will continue hot weather today for inland areas with high temperatures around 5 degrees above average.
446 AM MDT Mon Aug 5 2019 Trof pushing through central Canada will dig toward the Great Lakes over the next few days. This will shift the upper ridge westward, and with more northwest flow into northeast Montana expect a little cooler temperatures through the week. Overall dry conditions are expected, but with lee trof and some lingering moisture along with disturbances moving through the ridge, can not rule out a few thunderstorms developing.
This afternoon-Tonight: Dry conditions and slightly cooler temperatures should arrive as post frontal/stable air mass settles into our CWA. Highs today will be near seasonal values in the low 80s (a few mid 80s still possible depending on clearing).
The high's center remains just southwest of the four-corners this morning (currently keeping us out of the best moisture fetch) and is expected to move slightly east in the short term. Convection- Allowing Models still highlighting some storm activity this afternoon mainly tied to the higher terrain.
An upper level ridge of high pressure near the four corners region is progged to gradually slide eastward this week and eventually become recentered over central Texas south of the OK and TX Panhandles by the upcoming weekend. Given the predicted upper level steering flow pattern, the highest probabilities for showers and thunderstorms were placed in the northwest sections of the forecast area, with the overall lowest values in the southeast Texas Panhandle.
439 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019 Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows a large high pres system centered over NM, while a trough axis is oriented fm roughly the Ohio Valley toward the N Cntl Gulf coast. 24 The overall pattern aloft is not expected to change significantly through the upcoming week as the upper ridge meanders over the southern Rockies and into the southern plains.
The boundary will help focus some shower and thunderstorm activity, along with the higher elevations this afternoon.
Although there will be a mix of clouds and sun today, temperatures will be warmer with building heights aloft. Afternoon highs will be in the lower and middle 90s with heat index values around 100.
/issued 347 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019/ Fog will be mentioned across much of central into southeast Oklahoma early this morning, near and east of weak warm front where t/td depressions are approaching zero.
619 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019 On the large-scale this morning, broad northwest flow prevails overhead, downstream of a building upper ridge axis across the Four Corners region. Along the surface, high pressure that brought nice weather to our region yesterday continues to retreat off to our east this morning, with surface observations showing a cold front draped across the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Shwrs and storms will linger through the morning hours on Tuesday before drier conditions return by mid to late afternoon as high pressure builds in from the north.
1036 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2019 The upper level trough axis is located over the southern Appalachians and will be to the east of the mountains by this afternoon. Additionally, water vapor imagery indicates widespread dry air in the mid and upper levels to the west of the trough axis. Best coverage of afternoon showers/storms will be across the higher elevations along the TN/NC line where the mountains will provide orographic lift with northwesterly flow aloft. Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 70 91 71 / 20 20 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 67 88 67 / 10 10 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 88 69 88 68 / 10 10 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 65 87 64 / 20 10 10 20.
/issued 442 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019/ SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): Currently 500 mb ridging remains centered over the southwestern US while troughing situates across the eastern US and the northern Gulf of Mexico. During the short term, the ridge will start to expand southeastward across Texas which helps to nudge the trough eastward on Tuesday. Tuesday will be more limited in areal coverage as the 20% pops will concentrate mainly east of the highway 281/I-69C corridor.
The upper level ridge continues to persist over the southwestern United States, keeping our area in northwest flow aloft yet again. At the surface, high pressure centered over northern Missouri will provide the basis for a dry and seasonal Monday across the area. We are looking at a similar day to yesterday, albeit slightly warmer with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s alongside partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly winds. The area will likely remain dry into Monday night before a weak cold front moves in starting early Tuesday morning, bringing our next shot at light rain. The aforementioned cold front will approach our area from the north during throughout the day on Tuesday.
Another day with broad high pressure over the Desert Southwest pushing temperatures to several degrees above average. This has seen surface dew points drop from the lower and middle 60s to the mid to upper 50s, and precipitable water values drop from 1. The best thing we have going for us is an inverted trough wrapping under the high and pushing across Chihuahua and Sonora over the next 72 hours.
Troffing over the Mid Atlc/Deep South combining with ridging over the central Bahamas/FL Straits will maintain a deep lyr SW flow acrs the FL Peninsula.
631 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019 The subtropical ridge remains anchored across the Southwest while northwest mid/upper flow prevails across the Central Plains states. Temperatures are expected to be above normal ranging from the lower 90s across southeast KS to the mid and upper 90s in central KS.
Lows tonight will drop into the upper 60s, with highs on Tuesday in the low to mid 80s. Weak low level theta-e advection and boundary layer destabilization on the backside of high pressure may allow for isolated showers (20% PoP) to pop up near a Lake MI shadow late this afternoon into early this evening. Renewed vigorous re-development will then be likely along this composite outflow and/or primary cold front Tuesday afternoon, though latest guidance continues to differ on where this takes place. Cloud cover should result in a slightly cooler day otherwise, though remaining seasonably humid with dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s.
Upper level trough has pushed east and some weak upper level ridging has built into the region.
Will continue to monitor for the potential for quick shower/thunderstorm develop or slide in near the cold front near our southern border (Jones/Lyman Counties). Early this morning, numerous thunderstorms were occurring in response to a short wave trough/pv anomaly dropping southeast out of Canada along with a surface front. Indications by all ops models and hi-res models show this surface front and short wave trough descending southeast through the morning hours bringing thunderstorms to our cwa.
This will continue to keep afternoon highs under the 90 degree mark this today despite continued warm advection trends ahead of an upstream cold front. As the Four Corners ridge continues to build through the late week and into the weekend time frame, embedded disturbances overhead the local area will maintain the active pattern through the next several days. VFR cloud cover will continue to build into the area ahead of a weak cold front expected to push through the area late tonight.
1144 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019 Quiet weather is settling into the region as high pressure across northeast montana moves into North Dakota this afternoon and tonight. The best chance for convection will be toward the weekend when an upper low will move inland and bring southwest flow aloft, with increasing moisture return. High pressure across northeast Montana will move to North Dakota tonight.
a dry short term appears to be in store for the short term periods with more sunshine and slightly warmer temps expected across the local area tomorrow. to the lower to mid 90s across much of north central Kansas tomorrow.
317 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019 High pressure is quickly winning out this afternoon, with the cold front now south of the forecast area. The next cold front will stretch from the ND/SD border to northeastern North Dakota at 21Z Tuesday will be shifting into central SD by early evening. This sets the stage for high dew points in the low to mid 60s, and temperatures rising to near 90 degrees, along with MLCAPE values over 2500J/kg, deep layer shear of 35 to 50 kts, and a low level jet of 30-35kts developing later in the evening.
The upper ridge across the NM region will bridge eastward into TX by mid-week with highs creeping up into the mid 90s.
1139 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019 Main update was to expand the low precipitation chances north. /issued 347 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019/ Fog will be mentioned across much of central into southeast Oklahoma early this morning, near and east of weak warm front where t/td depressions are approaching zero.
Light east southeast surface flow will prevail with high pressure centered across the midwest.
This evening through Tuesday A ridge axis continues to build over the PACNW today, putting the Cowboy State on the east side of this ridge. A weak cold front is slowly meandering over areas east of the Divide, but due to its weak nature is making this hard to track.
207 PM MDT Mon Aug 5 2019 Strong upper high/ridge continues across the Desert SW. Daily thunderstorms will continue through the week as the upper ridge persists across the region, pushing slightly farther eastward toward the end of the week into the weekend.
This will bring a surface cold front through the region by evening. Highs Tuesday will be around 90 southwest to the lower 80s northwest.
For the remainder of the week, Nebraska sits on the periphery of the large southern Plains upper ridge. Northwest flow aloft is a favorable storm track for ridge runners, and a persistent pattern of surface boundaries will provide the forcing for near daily thunderstorms.
247 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019 With the exception of a few showers across southern Missouri that may linger into this evening, tonight and overnight will be mild as a cold front makes its way across the northern plains.
Cold front approaching the area is moving into a moist, unstable atmosphere.
Expect this activity to spread inland towards the Interstate 35 corridor and into the Hill Country through the remainder of the morning hours as convective temperatures in the lower 90s are reached. An upper level ridge will remain anchored across the Southwest U.
316 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019 Strong upper level ridge over the southern Rockies/Southwestern US will shift east over the Southern Plains during the week. This will limit convection/precipitation chances across all but the northwestern one-quarter to one-third of the forecast area where weaknesses in the upper-level ridge rotate clockwise across the higher terrain of New Mexico and west Texas.
Another area of storms were developing along the main cold front from near Montevideo in west central Minnesota, to St.
The HRRR/RAP have drier conditions across much of southwestern Kansas, with the highest CAPE in extreme western Kansas and negligible CAPE father east.
Isolated storms will be possible in the higher elevations west of the Pecos River the next several days but unfortunately any rainfall amounts will be light as high pressure near the Four Corners region moves east into Texas. The high will also cause max temps to edge back above 100 degrees in many locations across the area with the Rio Grande valley exceeding 110. Relief is not expected until the weekend at the earliest, as the high center moves into East Texas leaving us under a deep southerly flow that may increase moisture and slightly cooler Gulf of Mexico air.
Across the upper levels around 500mb and above, the ridge over W TX/NM is slowly moving eastward, with the Eastern Gulf trough slowly moving east of the area as well. North of I-10 has seen virtually nothing so far this afternoon, which is likely due to the influence of the building ridge to our west.
cold front that was over northern Wyoming this morning.
Have reluctantly expanded slight chance pops to all locations in association with the mid/upper trough rotating through the area. Modest mid-level lapse rates and warm, moist air in the lower PBL will yield MLCAPE values somewhere in the neighborhood of 500-1000 J/kg, slightly better than yesterday.
1202 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019 The upper level ridge continues to persist over the southwestern United States, keeping our area in northwest flow aloft yet again. At the surface, high pressure centered over northern Missouri will provide the basis for a dry and seasonal Monday across the area. We are looking at a similar day to yesterday, albeit slightly warmer with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s alongside partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly winds. The area will likely remain dry into Monday night before a weak cold front moves in starting early Tuesday morning, bringing our next shot at light rain. The aforementioned cold front will approach our area from the north during throughout the day on Tuesday.
Dry weather is then expected Fri through Sun evening as dry, slight cooler, high pressure builds into the region.
953 AM PDT Mon Aug 5 2019 High pressure to the east will continue hot weather this afternoon for inland areas with high temperatures around 5 degrees above average.
123 PM EDT Mon Aug 5 2019 VFR conditions currently across the terminals with showers/storms developing across the higher elevations.
However, given decent agreement in the synoptic scale that a weak mid level disturbance will interact with a weak, slow moving cold front during the day and possibly into the early evening, will need to go with at least a chance for scattered storms at most locations. Regarding storm strength and organization, CAPEs expected in the 2000-3000 J/KG range with sfc dew points near 70 to the lower 70s point to more than ample instability to support strong updrafts.
The atmosphere will become quite unstable by Tuesday afternoon along and just ahead of the cold front with scattered thunderstorms forecast to develop and shift southward through central and southeast MO and southwest IL Tuesday afternoon and evening. The convection should shift south of the forecast area by late Tuesday night as the cold front moves south of the region with slightly cooler and less humid air filtering into northeast MO and west central IL late Tuesday night.
1239 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019 On the large-scale this morning, broad northwest flow prevails overhead, downstream of a building upper ridge axis across the Four Corners region. Along the surface, high pressure that brought nice weather to our region yesterday continues to retreat off to our east this morning, with surface observations showing a cold front draped across the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Shwrs and storms will linger through the morning hours on Tuesday before drier conditions return by mid to late afternoon as high pressure builds in from the north.
Some cirrus will increase from the northwest late tonight and Tuesday morning with some mid level CU/AC developing Tues aftn ahead of the next cold front.
This afternoon through Tuesday A ridge axis continues to build over the PACNW today, putting the Cowboy State on the east side of this ridge. A weak cold front is slowly meandering over areas east of the Divide, but due to its weak nature is making this hard to track.