Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE TRACK OF THE LOW SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY COHERENT IN NWP SOLUTIONS ENDING UP CENTERED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN CHIHUAHUA BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW DEEPENS. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY THOUGH ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS REMAINS NEBULOUS. WITH THE CORE OF THE LOW SO FAR AWAY.
STABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA. WITH BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE, MAX TEMPS SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ALONG THE EAST COAST. BIGGEST STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
326 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016 AT H5 TROUGH TO THE WEST AND RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES NEBRASKA TONIGHT. BUT THREAT OF SEVERE IS MARGINAL AT BEST WITH THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT NEAR KAIA AND PINE RIDGE SO LEFT AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW.
1038 AM MST MON MAR 7 2016 UPPER LOW WORKING SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH CIRCULATION PICKED UP IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. BAND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW AND SNOTELS SHOWING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS IN NORTHEAST UTAH. THE AXIS OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE STRETCHED FROM AROUND SALT LAKE CITY TO DURANGO AT 12Z THIS MORNING. THE LARGE CA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRAVEL ACROSS SONORA AND INTO CHIHUAHUA ON TUE. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
Strong high pressure will remain in place over night keeping things pretty quiet. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than last night, right around 50 degrees.
In addition, an upper level low is currently digging into the Desert Southwest. As a result of the downslope flow and deep, dry adiabatic conditions behind the dryline today, temperatures will be highest near and just west of the dryline, with slightly cooler readings on the higher terrain of far western Kansas. The bulk of the precipitation will likely be south of Kansas through this week as the aforementioned upper level low remains to our south and eventually southeast.
CASPER SHOULD SEE SOME PRETTY HEAVY SNOW NOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NE OUT OF CO AND INTO THE NE PANHANDLE WHILE FURTHER WEST.
MODELS SHOW A LITTLE BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE RIDGE LATE TONIGHT WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE A FEW LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS, BUT OTHERWISE KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE MOMENT.
311 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY THEN MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
255 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016 At 2 PM on Monday, a strong short wave trough was moving northeast across northeast Colorado. Thunderstorm potential in the coming hours and days will revolve around the timing of individual short wave troughs that move quickly through the moist southwest flow aloft and bring periods of focused ascent and increased instability to the local area. The next good chance for thunderstorms comes with a well-organized short wave trough scheduled to cross the area late Tuesday morning into the afternoon hours.
246 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016 Upper trough currently digging into the West Coast this afternoon will undergo significant amplification as it pushes into the central U.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER AND IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A QUIET DAY ACROSS THE AREA.
256 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016 A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. WOULD NOT BE AT ALL SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 10-15 DEGREE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE RIDGES/VALLEYS THROUGH 06Z.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN US. WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE LOW IN NORTHEAST CO/NEB PANHANDLE. COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH THE MO VALLEY REGION ON TUESDAY.
THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ALONG ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO MEXICO.
126 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL STAY ANCHORED IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVING DOWN OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WAS KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF PREICPIATION WEST OF THIS LINE AND ENERGY DIGGING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE IT TOWARD NORTHERN BAJA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANCE FOR PRECIP QUICKLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW CENTER HEADS OVER SONORA MEXICO.
IT ALSO STRENGTHENED MORE THAN EXPECTED OVER WESTERN CO WHICH PRODUCE MORE PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH THROUGH WEST SIDE OF THE LOW OVER NE UT AND CENTRAL AND SW CO. UPPER LOW WORKING SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH CIRCULATION PICKED UP IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. BAND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW AND SNOTELS SHOWING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS IN NORTHEAST UTAH. THE AXIS OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE STRETCHED FROM AROUND SALT LAKE CITY TO DURANGO AT 12Z THIS MORNING. THE LARGE CA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRAVEL ACROSS SONORA AND INTO CHIHUAHUA ON TUE. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
BUT AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THAT WILL PUSH EAST INTO OUR CWA THIS EVENING. HAVE LINGERING CLOUD COVER KEEP TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S EVEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO NORTHERN SD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TUESDAY.
As the upper low moves over northern Mexico tonight, disturbances in the southwest flow aloft will intensify over southwest Texas and spread over the forecast area tonight. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 70s with some upper 70s to the lower 80s along and west of the dryline.
Still expecting scattered to numerous rain and snow showers with the trough moving in this afternoon.
IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNEDAY.
THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT STARTS TO LIFT IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECTATION IS FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH/EAST IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT THE BEST SETUP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. COOLER AIR. MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT FROM TUE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF LEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS SUGGESTS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD BREAK THROUGH THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. THE TUE COLD FRONT HAS EDGED SOUTHEAST FOR WED. AND ALL MODELS SPIN A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OUT OF A TX TROUGH NORTHWARD INTO THE BOUNDARY. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO NORTHERN MN.
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, A MID TO UPPER IMPULSE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR FOR MOST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE RETURNING WED MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS AND ANOTHER SIGNFICANT WAVE LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE RED RIVER WITHIN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW.
334 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016 A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA.
WITH A WEAK SMALL SCALE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. DEPICT THE CENTER OF A 1030 MB ANTICYCLONE LOCATED NEAR WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. THE FLORIDA KEYS LIE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS MIGHTY RIDGE. A MID AND UPPER RIDGE OVER FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE MID AND UPPER HEIGHTS REMAIN LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH COLD CORE CYCLOGENESIS AND STORMINESS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BAJA MEXICO. ACTIVITY WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD AS WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH COOLING IN THE MID-LEVELS HELPS TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW WHILE TRANSLATING EASTWARD.
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL KEEP THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED JUST WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST SD. THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS SQUARELY WITHIN THE DRY SLOT OF THE LOW. AS SHOWER CHANCES REMAIN LIMITED TO SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR. ALL MODELS ARE POINTING AT A LOT OF MOISTURE BOTTLED UP IN THE 900-850MB LAYER WHICH IS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST. HEDGED THE LOWS TOWARD CONSENSUS VALUES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOISTURE POOLING IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
310 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016 18Z SFC DATA HAS AN INFERRED LOW SOUTH OF KBIS WITH A WARM FRONT RUNNING FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA. THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE FEED IS GENERALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI SO THE HIGHER POPS WERE PLACED THERE. THIS NEW CONVECTION BRINGS INTO QUESTION AS TO HOW ACTIVE THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WHEN IT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
1205 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. STABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA. WITH BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE, MAX TEMPS SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ALONG THE EAST COAST. BIGGEST STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PV ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ROTATE INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN COLORADO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT TODAY AND TONIGHT(AS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS). COOLER TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUE WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER. ON THU AN UPR RIDGE NOSES INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPS. FOR SUN THE GFS HAS A RIDGE OVR THE AREA WITH AN UPR TROF OVR THE WEST COAST. WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES AND BRINGING PCPN TO THE HIGH COUNTRY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE N-NW THIS EVENING.
356 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016 HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL STAY ANCHORED IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
521 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016 ISSUED AT 258 CST SAT MAR 5 2016 PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO GREAT LAKES WILL DAMPEN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION OF A SERIES OF LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO CNTRL PLAINS. THE INCREASING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL INDUCE A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WHICH WILL INITIALLY SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEB SUNDAY BEFORE WEAKENING IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LEE LOW OVER ERN MT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY. ADDED MODEST ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH POSSIBLY AND INCH TO TWO INCHES IN THE HIGHEST RIDGES TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE NEAR LOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWLANDS TONIGHT. A VERY TRANQUIL PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT DOMINATE.
853 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
1003 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A MAINLY DRY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH LATE TODAY. A WARMER TEMPERATURE TREND WILL ALSO BEGIN TOMORROW AND COMMENCE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO DEPART THE AREA AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM SAID DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO ONE MORE NIGHT OF COLD TEMPERATURES (AT OR MOSTLY JUST BELOW FREEZING).
930 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A MAINLY DRY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH LATE TODAY. A WARMER TEMPERATURE TREND WILL ALSO BEGIN TOMORROW AND COMMENCE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AS FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND THROUGH TONIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO DEPART THE AREA AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM SAID DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO ONE MORE NIGHT OF COLD TEMPERATURES (AT OR MOSTLY JUST BELOW FREEZING).
/ISSUED 351 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016/ UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WAS LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MILD DAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GATHERS STRENGTH OFF THE WEST COAST. THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A DEEPENING SURFACE LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. BUT INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
With high pressure in place, skies will be mostly clear with lows ranging from the lower 40s inland to the upper 40s along the panhandle coast.
STILL A FEW CONGESTED CUMULUS FORMATIONS GENERATING SHOWERS RIGHT ON THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
843 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATER SUNDAY AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY GOOD TIMING AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PASSING QUICKLY TO THE EAST AT 12Z SUNDAY. RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL BUILD IN EARNESTLY SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL FORECAST LOWS ON EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING.
924 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 A LOW PRESSURE AREA AFFECTS OUR AREA TONIGHT AS IT PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH.
CONDITIONS GENERALLY DETERIORIATING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FOR TONIGHT.
537 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016 EXTENSIVE DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON LEFT IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT PASSED THROUGH YESTERDAY. SKIES WERE CLEARING ACROSS MN WHERE MID-LEVEL RIDGING WAS MOVING IN. BY AFTERNOON WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THIS INCREASINGLY MOIST/MILD AIR AND NOSE OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. PLAN ON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND NOSE OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA.
with temperatures mainly in the lower 70s along with light easterly wind.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY. ENERGY EJECTING AROUND THE TROUGH OVER NEVADA WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH MORE MODEST MOISTURE. MOZLEY UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
641 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT BEGINNING SUNDAY AND LASTING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. A BLEND OF 18Z ENSEMBLE QPF AND MORE RECENT HRRR/NAM OUTPUT SUPPORT ACCUMS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS AN INCH OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN SOMERSET CO. AS AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE E COAST. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM THE MISS VALLEY THRU THE GRT LKS AT INTERFACE OF E COAST RIDGE AND PLAINS TROF THROUGH PA BY MIDWEEK. AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS CANADA WILL NUDGE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD AND PIVOT IT FROM MORE OF A N-S ORIENTATION TO A W-E DIRECTION.
312 PM MST SAT MAR 5 2016 THE AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED THE FRONT RANGE/HIGH PLAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE SCALE RIDGE. PACIFIC MOISTURE WAS RIDING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS PROGGING THE UPPER RIDGE TO BROADEN AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE NATION/S MIDSECTION TONIGHT/SUNDAY.
THE COTEAU AND JUST DOWN WIND ALSO HAS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME OF THESE HIGHER WINDS REACH THE SURFACE.
659 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
1039 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
700 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 AVIATION AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER IN WISCONSIN WILL TRACK EASTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY.
948 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016 Pleasant conditions will continue through Saturday as a ridge continues to build and move eastward of the Rockies. Northerly surface flow will keep afternoon highs in the low to mid 50s for areas north of I-70 with temps reaching the low to mid 60s for points south. Ahead of this feature, a strong low level jet will develop underneath the ridge axis. With adequate mixing, sustained winds around 20-20mph gusting to 30-35 mph are possible as the low level jet enters the Central Plains, particularly for areas near the MO/KS border.
520 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016 Pleasant conditions will continue through Saturday as a ridge continues to build and move eastward of the Rockies. Northerly surface flow will keep afternoon highs in the low to mid 50s for areas north of I-70 with temps reaching the low to mid 60s for points south. Ahead of this feature, a strong low level jet will develop underneath the ridge axis. With adequate mixing, sustained winds around 20-20mph gusting to 30-35 mph are possible as the low level jet enters the Central Plains, particularly for areas near the MO/KS border.
A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWEST FROM CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE MAY BE DUE TO A COALESCENCE OF FRONTAL TROUGHINESS (YESTERDAY'S WEAK COLD FRONT) AND THE MESOSCALE THERMAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AFTERNOON'S DAYTIME HEATING. A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS PERSISTED ALONG THE TROUGH'S AXIS EARLIER THIS EVENING. RIDGING WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. WASHING OUT THE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR EAST.
610 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A MAINLY DRY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH LATE TODAY. A WARMER TEMPERATURE TREND WILL ALSO BEGIN TOMORROW AND COMMENCE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AS FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND THROUGH TONIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO DEPART THE AREA AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM SAID DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO ONE MORE NIGHT OF COLD TEMPERATURES (AT OR MOSTLY JUST BELOW FREEZING).
AN INITIAL DISTURBANCE WHICH MAY BE THE REMNANT OF THE WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD LOWERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THE STRONGER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN UT BY ABOUT 03Z AND MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH WESTERN CO OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS MIXING DECREASES AND THE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG SUNDAY WITH THE TROUGH IN THE REGION. HAVE STAYED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
1030 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A MAINLY DRY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH LATE TODAY. A WARMER TEMPERATURE TREND WILL ALSO BEGIN TOMORROW AND COMMENCE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO DEPART THE AREA AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM SAID DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO ONE MORE NIGHT OF COLD TEMPERATURES (AT OR MOSTLY JUST BELOW FREEZING).
Increasing SE winds this evening will help to advect moisture into the region, and while CNM and PEQ look to remain on the edge of the lower ceilings, expect HOB, MAF, INK, and FST to see MVFR ceilings/visibility by 03/04Z tonight, with IFR conditions expected late tonight/early Sunday morning. /issued 129 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016/ Upper ridge will give way to next upper trough that moves onto the West Coast early Sunday. As this trough moves east it develops into a cut off low that rolls along the US/Mex border. should lift northward but will keep temps a few degrees cooler than yesterday.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM FOR LOWS WITH 40S IN THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND 30S IN THE LOW LYING AREAS. RECORD SETTING TEMPERATURES ON TAP ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW, WITH A LATE DAY COLD FRONT ARRIVAL INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR TOMORROW NIGHT. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR RECORD VALUES. LIVINGSTON WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER AS THE FRONT WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT BEGINNING SUNDAY AND LASTING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. AS AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE E COAST. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM THE MISS VALLEY THRU THE GRT LKS AT INTERFACE OF E COAST RIDGE AND PLAINS TROF THROUGH PA BY MIDWEEK. AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS CANADA WILL NUDGE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD AND PIVOT IT FROM MORE OF A N-S ORIENTATION TO A W-E DIRECTION. BEST CHANCE WOULD SEEM TO BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST IN NORTH.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS ALIGNED ALONG THE APPALACHIAN SPINE GENERATING A COUPLE SPRINKLES OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW LAYER SHOULD SCATTER OUT AROUND 12-14Z AROUND TYS AND TRI ALLOWING SOME GREAT VFR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
912 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016 REDUCTIONS IN CLOUD COVERAGE AND TWEAKS A TOUCH COOLER FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT HAS RECENTLY MOVED IN A NW-SE MANNER ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 30S. RSB /ISSUED 537 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2016/ A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWED FOR WINDS TO GUST UP TO 15-17KTS. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE SRN PLAINS. WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION INTO MON WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPS. AS A DEEPENING UPPER LOW/TROUGH PATTERN OVER NRN MEX BEGINS TO GRADUALLY LIFT NWD. AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH TO THE SE SLOWLY BEGINS TO LIFT OVER THE W/CNTRL GULF REGION AND WEAKEN. AS THE TROUGH PATTERN BEGINS TO LIFT OVER THE AREA.
932 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2016 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
Extensive high cloudiness overspreading west central Texas may have some disruptive influence on the low cloud development, with breaks in the low cloud cover possible. Abundant cloud cover and increasing moisture will result in mild temperatures tonight, with lows mainly in the lower and middle 50s. It will be a little cooler on Sunday, with afternoon highs mainly in the lower 70s.