Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 242 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017/ Winds have increased this afternoon in response to the upper trough passing through the Central and Northern Plains. The High Wind Warning for the Guadlupe Mountains and Wind Advisories for the adjacent plains will remain in effect through this evening. Winds will begin to decrease once we are the backside of the trough and a cold front will push southward late tonight. Winds associated with this front should not be very strong, but will funnel some cooler air to the area. More westerly flow in the upper level pattern will remain through mid week while a trough starts to set up off the coast of Baja.
A cold front is on its way down and expected to arrive across the northern Hill Country around day-break. Should see ceilings begin to lower back into MVFR and then IFR tonight ahead of a southward moving cold front. A cold front will move into northern areas of the CWA early Tuesday morning and clear southern areas early afternoon. Cooler behind the front with gusty north and northeast winds in the afternoon.
A highly amplified upper level ridge will stretch from the eastern Gulf Coast into the Great Lakes and eastern Canada through tonight. At the surface, we will remain near the southwestern edge of a broad area of high pressure, where southeasterly flow will prevail through the overnight hours. A cold front will move eastward into the lower/middle portions of the Mississippi Valley overnight, but will remain far enough to our west (along with enhanced moisture ahead of the front) that dry conditions will prevail throughout this period across our area.
525 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017 Strong southerly flow continues to push relatively warm and moist air into the area ahead of a dry line and cold front to our west. Precipitation should clear the area by sunrise tomorrow, with cooler and much drier air building into the area for Tuesday.
Upper level ridging continues over the eastern half of the U. This ridging slips east through the period as troughing moves through the central U. On the surface, a broad area of high pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast ridges south-southwest over the Florida peninsula. The temps will remain above normal with daytime highs in the low 80's and overnight lows in the mid 50's to low 60's.
Upper trof is pushing eastward and tight surface pressure gradient is expected to relax through the evening. It will remain windy all night across the higher mountains. Will have to watch this potential closely however as the latest hrrr run tries to spread some strong gusts down into the higher elevations of the rampart range towards 15z. though western parts of Pueblo county and eastern Fremont county will also hit criteria on the west side of the surface lee trof.
955 PM EST Mon Mar 6 2017 High pressure off the coast will move farther out to sea on Tuesday.
the center of the low pressure system has lifted northeastward from near Aberdeen around noon to near Valley City/Fargo at mid-afternoon. The inverted trough extending northwestward from the low towards the Turtle Mountains. On the west side of this inverted trough, lots of instability with strong frontogenesis and good lapse rates of 7. The high wind warning remains in effect until 5 pm mst.
Starting Tuesday and for the remainder of the week warmer temperatures and mainly clear skies are in store as a dry westerly flow develops over Arizona. Look for cold overnight low temperatures behind the recent trough and associated cold front.
Precipitation should be light and fast moving with any rain changing to snow as temperatures are mostly at/below freezing across west river counties.
Cold front passage on Tuesday will bring a period of rain and thunderstorms to central Alabama, with the bulk of the rain coming in the noon to 10 pm time frame on Tuesday.
A weak cold front will move through the area between 07Z to 09Z on Tuesday resulting in a wind shift from a southerly direction to a northerly direction. Stratus will move north into the area late this evening and early Tuesday morning, ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will approach the northern Big Country around midnight, central portions of the forecast area around 3 AM and then across the Interstate 10 corridor around 6 AM.
A strong cold front will bring a line of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms to the area later tonight into early Tuesday. Rapidly deepening mid latitude cyclone north to near the Manitoba/Ontario border will force a trailing cold front through the local area by later tonight/early Tuesday morning.
916 PM EST Mon Mar 6 2017 High pressure off the coast will move farther out to sea on Tuesday.
A cold front will push quickly across the region Tuesday evening and overnight. High pressure of mild Pacific origins is forecast to arrive behind the front for the balance of the week. Meanwhile aloft, the mid level ridge axis currently position just to the west of the area this evening will slowly shift across the area tonight. Given the light southerly breeze and increasing cloud cover, we should see overnight low temps remain much warmer than the last few nights, with lows by Tuesday morning in the mid to upper 40s, with a few locations potentially only dropping to 50. The trailing cold front is expected to push east through the region Tuesday night.
Temperatures will start the week just a bit cooler than normal then quickly warm through the week to much warmer than normal levels for the first half of March. The upper pattern is defined by a trough of low pressure moving through the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest, a broad ridge of high pressure along the Eastern Pacific, and a generally zonal flow across Southeast Arizona. Pleasant cooler than normal March day across southeast Arizona. With cooler air mass in place, the lows Tuesday morning will be quite cold in the eastern valleys were the usual cold spots will see low temperatures in the 28-32 degree range.
Upper trof moving out of our region this afternoon and pulling the bulk of the precipitation with it. Some cold air slides down from Canada into the high plains Tuesday afternoon turning winds easterly across the plains Tuesday night.
651 PM EST Mon Mar 6 2017 Cold front passes late Tuesday evening.
Mountains ridges and along the east slopes of the foothills may continue seeing gusty winds all night. The upper level trough will transition eastward with the upper level jet moving north into Wyoming.
630 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017 Winds will turn northwest then northerly overnight as a cold front slides southward behind the upper trough exiting into the central and northern plains. An upper-trough passing across the central plains has brought a strong middle-level jet streak across the southern plains and Texas Panhandle today. The winds will decrease this evening as the speedmax shifts E-NE, but a cold front will drop south through the area tonight in the wake of the exiting wave.
859 PM EST Mon Mar 6 2017 High pressure near the Carolina coast is the culprit for the fresh to moderate winds impacting the Florida Keys this evening. The large area of high pressure along the Mid Atlantic coast will slowly slide over the Western Atlantic through Tuesday night.
We retained the high wind watch for Tuesday. By Tuesday night, the deep low pressure system will be positioned over far northern Ontario and will likely have deepened below 970mb at the surface.
412 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017 Strong southerly flow today has provided ample deep layer moisture coupled with weak upper trough advancing into the region to induce scattered showers over much of the region. So far, no thunder has been observed with any of this convection but still cannot rule out a stray storm or two across our eastern zones later on this afternoon into early evening ahead of an approaching cold front out over the Plains. Northwest winds will be gusty around frontal passage but will subside later in the day as high pressure quickly builds in behind the front.
Minor adjustments to temperatures made for the overnight hours with some fresh snow and thinning cloud cover opted for the lower end of the suite of guidance products for temperatures.
Winds will not relax until between 06-09z as a cold front nears the area. Further north, we will be seeing development along/just ahead of the cold front moving down from the Southern Plains. A brief break in the weather expected behind this front for most of Weds as a flat upper ridge builds in from the west. The next cold front is currently on track for a Sat night FROPA across SE TX. Expecting south southeast winds out ahead of the next cold front that is passing through SE Texas Tuesday afternoon.
Next system begins pushing precipitation chances back into the northwest by early morning, spreading south and east across north and central Georgia ahead of an approaching cold front.
By Tue, a cold front is progged to move into the north and northwestern CWA late morning then slowly drift SE toward the coast by late afternoon. Best low level moisture convergence will be along the trough axis. For now, have the highest pops draped across the mid section of the CWA. Cooler and drier air is expected to be primarily across the northern CWA for Tue night.
304 PM PST Mon Mar 6 2017 High pressure will gradually build in from the west this week.
A cold Pacific trough will slowly move out of the region tonight.
527 PM EST Mon Mar 6 2017 Cold front passes late Tuesday evening.
The regional radar analysis shows the upper low over the eastern Dakotas moving rapidly to the northeast. The N-S oriented band of wrap-around snow on the western side of the upper low continues to move eastward across western South Dakota and should be completely out of the forecast area by early eve.
For tonight, the cold front will move through. Considerably cooler highs are expected with values peaking in the 60s. The fb grids with chance pops and cooler temperatures looks fine for now.
419 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017 WV imagery this afternoon showing a positive tilt longwave trof extending from western Canada down through the central Rockies with a strong jet max. attendant cold front cutting through quickly sweeping in through central South Dakota into eastern Colorado.
Cold front has entered northeast Oklahoma this evening.
439 PM MST Mon Mar 6 2017 Updated aviation section Ginormous trough extends across W. NOAM which transitions to an eastern state ridge then another deep low over the Canadian maritimes. A very strong upstream polar jet is digging through the base of the trough this afternoon and the trough is taking on a bit of a negative tilt. At the moment most models and ensembles are favoring the highest peaks of the Gore/Park Range and to a lesser extent the Flat Tops and Sawatch/Mosquitos. The jet and hence the storm track will be lifting north meaning a drier and warmer forecast to end out the week.
A cold front will sweep southeast across the area overnight accompanied by a line of showers and thunderstorms. The gusty winds will likely persist through mid evening ahead of approaching cold front which will move into far northeast Oklahoma early this evening. The more widespread severe threat will occur along the cold front with thunderstorms expanding in coverage and becoming more linear with time along frontal boundary through the evening hours. The severe threat should end around 3 am as the cold front sweeps south of area into the ARKLATX region.
712 PM EST Mon Mar 6 2017 A warm front will approach tonight and Tuesday, bringing some light rain and some fog Tuesday and Tuesday night. The rain may start as a little light freezing rain and sleet across NH and interior western ME late tonight and Tuesday morning.
858 PM EST Mon Mar 6 2017 High pressure centered over the mid-Atlantic coast will shift off to the NE through Tuesday as a weakening cold front approaches the state.
Have dropped the high wind warning for remainder of the evening. The regional radar analysis shows the upper low over the eastern Dakotas moving rapidly to the northeast. The N-S oriented band of wrap-around snow on the western side of the upper low continues to move eastward across western South Dakota and should be completely out of the forecast area by early eve.
Should see ceilings begin to lower back into MVFR and then IFR tonight ahead of a southward moving cold front. A cold front will move into northern areas of the CWA early Tuesday morning and clear southern areas early afternoon. Cooler behind the front with gusty north and northeast winds in the afternoon.
Tilly (Tuesday Night - Next Monday) Cooler weather will continue to filter into the mid-Mississippi Valley behind the closed low near Hudson Bay Tuesday night. Pressure gradient stays up high enough between high pressure across the lower Mississippi Valley and the low across SE Canada to keep WSW winds up around 5-10 knots overnight. This in turn should help keep temperatures above the freezing mark across vast majority of the CWA.
Forecast soundings continue to depict intense shear with LLJ increasing to 60 knots but weak to non-existent instability ahead of the line due to a persistent high pressure ridge off to our east. Wind shear may become an issue as the low level jet increases overnight tonight. Winds will decrease in speed and shift from southerly to westerly as a cold front moves through Middle Tennessee from 18z to 00z Tuesday.
Have left the high wind warning unchanged though high winds should end across much of the plains this evening. May even need to extend the high wind warning for the wind-prone areas Tuesday night into Weds as the strong 7H winds persist over those areas. A band of snow along the North Platte River valley this afternoon will move out this evening as the upper trough/small upper low continues to move east and away from the area. Moist westerly flow will keep some snow showers going over the higher mtns through Tuesday evening but additional amounts not too high. Seasonably cool temperatures expected over the CWA Tuesday then warming on Weds as heights rise with the approach of a rather flat upper ridge.
527 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017 The cap was currently being breach across eastern Nebraska which was in closer proximity to the upper PV wave/cooler air aloft. Storms will eventually develop southward into eastern Kansas later this afternoon/evening once the cooler air aloft moves over the unstable low-level airmass.
A cold front will pass through the area late tonight into early Tuesday, bringing widespread showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms to the area, as well as breezy conditions. In the wake of the front, conditions will turn a bit cooler and drier.
Exception is far northeastern fcst area where some models do have enough qpf in wraparound light snow as the low wobbles back south a tad north of winnipeg. Water vapor loop indicate upper level low over the NE panhandle. Upper level trough will move over LS by morning. Upper level system with another upper low over southern SASK by morning.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 65 42 67 / 40 90 70 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 64 41 64 / 20 90 80 0 Oak Ridge, TN 51 64 40 65 / 40 90 70 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 62 38 62 / 20 80 80 0.
WV imagery this afternoon showing a positive tilt longwave trof extending from western Canada down through the central Rockies with a strong jet max. attendant cold front cutting through quickly sweeping in through central South Dakota into eastern Colorado.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 95 73 92 72 / 30 10 30 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 95 72 90 69 / 20 10 30 20 Oak Ridge, TN 95 72 90 69 / 20 10 30 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 93 69 89 67 / 20 10 30 20.
738 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 High pressure builds across the tri-state area for this weekend.
Today Through Sunday night An upper trough over the northern Rockies and northern plains this morning will begin to shift northeast towards the Great Lakes region today. Meanwhile an upper ridge will be anchored over the mid Atlantic seaboard today. and will begin to build slightly back to the west as that upper trough lifts towards Canada and the Great Lakes this afternoon and evening. With the absence of any notable lift and high pressure aloft beginning to nose back into Arkansas from the east. where the ridge will be last to exert influence. generally in the low 70s.
High pressure aloft over the VA/NC border remains in control of the weather pattern for much of the Southeast this morning, with E/SE winds in place across much of the region. At the sfc, the center of the high is anchored over the western Carolinas, just west of the parent upper ridge. A bit of weak upper level energy will rotate around the ridge aloft, helping to spark isolated to widely scattered (at best) showers and storms this afternoon, mainly in N/NErn areas of the CWFA.
Moving forward, area of high pressure across southeast U. will gradually build west toward the area, limiting precip chances and likely resulting in drier and warmer conditions by holiday weekend.
Currently, a mid-level trough is over the northern and central Plains and over the next 24 hours will be moving northeast into the upper Great Lakes. Otherwise, moderate height rises will be occurring over western and north central NE today and tonight as ridging occurs aloft behind the exiting upper level trough. Ridge expands across the area to start the week. 850 mb temps surge into the lower to mid 20s C with guidance in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Exception to this is Sunday where the NAM is a little slower to bring the warm air and is about 3 to 5 degrees cooler.
A mid and upper level trough drifts west from the northwestern Gulf of Mexico today to the mid and upper Texas Coast on Sunday while becoming a closed low.
Large-scale forcing will not be as supportive of continued convection as the entire pattern shifts north and upper- level high pressure becomes more prevalent across the eastern Plains, so do not expect precipitation to become widespread or to persist into the overnight hours tonight; and while very localized flash flooding is definitely possible should a thunderstorm pass over areas that are already very saturated from recent rain, the heavy rain threat looks too marginal and too isolated to warrant any kind of flash flood watch.
Temperatures are in the low to upper 50s. At the surface, low pressure is centered over southeast Colorado while a high pressure dominates from the Great Plains to the eastern United States. On Sunday, another weak disturbance moves in ahead of the slowly encroaching weak upper low presently over the Four Corners region.
with isolated to widely sct convection developing this afternoon mainly over E TX/Wcntrl LA N of a weak upper level low pressure system just off the extreme SE TX/SW LA coast. The upper ridge over the mid Atlantic states is driving drier air into the area even now with a boundary of clouds knocking on our back door over NE LA and SE AR. The water vapor shows a weak upper low wrapping up for a landing in the western Gulf and Texas coastal bend which will focus sea breeze activity basically along the I-10 corridor for a while absorbing the tropical connection that has come a gone over us a couple times already this summer.
With a strong deep-layered ridge established north of the region, easterly flow will continue today.
As an upper level trough exits the Central Plains and moves into the mid Mississippi Valley early this morning another upper level trough, located across central California and Nevada at 00z Saturday will move southeast into Arizona. This southwest United States upper level trough will then begin to deepen Saturday night. A surface boundary will move very little on Sunday and is expected to be located over eastern Colorado and portions of western Kansas as an upper low weakens and slowly moves east across the four corners region.
The GFS/NAM gradually lift the favorable thermodynamics, tied with a sfc warm front, north during the day Sunday, favoring central MN/northern WI with any pcpn chances. GFS and ECMWF both point to broad ridging to start, giving way to northwest flow for a couple days, then a amplification of the upper level ridge over the plains for the end of the week. Less humid, cooler air should move in post this system for Wed/Thu. Will have to contend with some MVFR cigs this morning along with isolated -shra as a trough of low pressure rotates northeast through the area. Looking for clouds to break up this evening as high pressure builds in.
The upper level ridge holds strong today with just a few isolated to scattered showers/storms this afternoon.
Otherwise, models have tried to cool afternoon highs down a couple degrees for the last several days, but highs have still rebounded into the low to mid 90s each day.
Upper ridging will dominate through the next 24 hours.
955 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 Upper level high pressure in place with hot and humid weather through the weekend. Main update was to raise highs today a degree or two in the river valleys of the Lowlands. Even with the higher temps expected than yesterday. This should keep most areas shy of heat advisory criteria aside from some of the urban centers within the river valleys in the Lowlands. High pressure firmly in control at the surface and aloft through the near term period. The area remains under an upper level ridge on Sunday.
/issued 438 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): Brownsville radar shows some very isolated streamer showers across portions of the lower Texas Gulf waters this morning. Water vapor imagery shows a mid to upper level ridge centered over the mid Atlantic states, a 500 mb low over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, and a weak TUTT low overhead.
A front meandering across central Indiana will interact with upper waves on the periphery of an upper ridge to prompt thunderstorm chances for the next several days. With high pressure centered southeast of the area have the lowest pops going in the southeast but have likelies for parts of the day in the north and west closest to the best upper forcing. A series of upper waves moving through the periphery of an upper ridge will impact central Indiana through the short term, bringing chances for thunderstorms to the area. For temperatures generally leaned on warmer end of guidance envelope based on recent verification.
A notable short wave trough located over southeastern Utah (as seen on Satellite imagery and latest H5 analysis) has provided enough dynamical forcing to maintain a broad area of largely stratiform precip across portions of Washington and Kane Counties this morning. Moderate to at times heavy rain within the precip shield located along the northern/eastern periphery of the low have been noted with upwards of. Continued east-southeast translation of this trough will extend vertical lift further east towards the Lake Powell area by midday, with formation of a deformation axis on the northwestern flank this afternoon as the low wraps up (aiding mid level convergent flow and lift as well).
641 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016 An upper level trof was moving into the western Dakotas at 08Z with embedded pieces of energy cruising through the western Great Lakes. The upper trof will reach western Minnesota by 00Z/7pm with those pieces of energy lifting northeastward through the area on the southwest flow aloft. The upper trof moves through northern Minnesota this evening and lifts into Ontario later tonight. Have the highest pops over the northern third of the forecast area this evening as the trof crosses overhead. As the upper trof reaches Ontario, the forcing remains ahead of the trof and in the immediate vicinity. Seasonable to slightly warmer than usual temperatures as August comes to an end with a chance for showers and storms early in the week.
At the sfc, a weak inverted trough currently located south of LA is progged to drift west and southwest across the NW Gulf and along the TX coast today through Sun. Farther south and west will be drier and possibly under the subsident effects of the west and northwest edge of the mid/upper low. POPs should be a bit higher by Sun due to deeper moisture and better positioning of the mid/upper low. Temps are expected to be a degree or two cooler with the increased rain/clouds.