Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
352 PM EDT Wed May 3 2017 High pressure will briefly build into the region overnight with clear skies and light winds.
The main upper level feature that will influence the weather through the short term period will be a deepening trough over the central U. This trough is very apparent on the water vapor imagery this afternoon extending south through western Oklahoma and Texas. A 130+ knot upstream jet max will help to deepen this trough as it progresses eastward. A closed upper low develops in the base of this trough over Arkansas by early Thursday morning. This trough will dig well into the central Gulf of Mexico by late Thursday evening. The trailing cold front with the associated low mentioned above is expected to bring the highest rain chances through the period.
56/GDG High pressure and dry conditions prevail tonight into Wednesday.
The second area of precipitation will be across north central KS where forcing on the back-side of the eastward-moving mid-level trough will support the development of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The clearing skies will allow low temperatures tonight to drop into the low/mid 40s. Clear skies continue into Thursday night and northerly winds diminish, as large scale upper ridge expands from the four corners into the Canadian rockies.
/Tonight through Thursday/ A weak trof and instability axis existed across northwest Iowa this afternoon. With some additional sunshine, temperatures are also expected to be slightly warmer on Thursday as well. /Thursday night through Wednesday/ Two large long wave trofs develop near the edges of North America by this weekend with a highly amplified flow. Ridging will increase across the central United States in response to the trofs and relatively quiet weather is forecast from late in the work week into the weekend. Temperatures will also climb during this time with thermal ridging building into the Plains and edging toward the state with time.
252 PM EDT Wed May 3 2017 High pressure will build in from the west tonight and allow for some chilly temperatures. Thursday will be sunny and mild under high pressure.
The upper- level ridge of high pressure is moving over the Great Basin and Northern Rockies regions, bringing a northerly to north-westerly flow aloft to our area. Our cloudiness is from the Pacific moisture being directed up and around the ridge top. As the ridge of high pressure continues to strengthen as it moves more toward the east over us, expect skies to remain mostly clear with daily fair-weather cumulus possible, but not with very much extent.
There is still some potential for severe storms over this area where the higher CAPE, stronger shear, deeper moisture, and weaker cap are located. Have removed POPs behind the cold front, currently along a Taylor to Austin to Bandera to Del Rio line, as drier and stable airmass filters into our area. Upper air analysis this morning showed a trough extending from the northern plains to southern New Mexico. The upper level trough will swing across Texas and the flow will become northwesterly. The cold front will have passed through our area by the beginning of the period.
Low pressure is organizing near the ARKLATEX while a frontal boundary is stretched from eastern Arkansas into West Tennessee. An intensifying upper trough is digging into the region this afternoon. The strengthening upper level trough is resulting in an area of strongly diffluent flow across the Mid-South. This area will impact the Mid-South this evening then additional development will occur overnight as the low pressure system and cold front move in. The heaviest rain will push east of the area along with the cold front by Thursday afternoon.
140 PM MDT Wed May 3 2017 19z surface analysis had boundary from northern MN to eastern CO with weak high pressure behind it over the western reaches of the CWA.
Mostly sunny skies with dry weather will be the overall trend today and Thursday, as a strong ridge of high pressure is over the Northern Rockies.
129 PM MDT Wed May 3 2017 Quiet through much of the short term period with a dramatic warming trend as the ridge builds in.
350 PM EDT Wed May 3 2017 High pressure will briefly build into the region overnight with clear skies and light winds.
Warm front convection has just skirted southern tier of cwa, with most of it south of area. However, broken line of storms associated with stg cold front movg across ne TX. Dry conditions thru remainder of fcst beginning late tonight as stg upper ridging over western conus. At this time, a warm front has aided in the development of a complex of scattered -SHRA/-TSRA across central LA, and another complex of storms near an old outflow boundary were noted near ktxk and keld just north of kshv. Computer models hint at a more prominent line of storms developing along a strong cold front, later this afternoon through early-mid evening, that will affect all TAF sites.
Primary band of shra within short wave trough oriented from DVL to HCO and will be swinging through the fa today with potential for T this afternoon.
538 PM EDT Wed May 3 2017 High pressure will build in from the west tonight and allow for some chilly temperatures. Thursday will be sunny and mild under high pressure.
Upper level ridging really begins to build over the forecast area Thursday.
300 PM EDT Wed May 3 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge on the west coast and a trough in the lower Missouri and upper Mississippi River valleys. The trough moves into the upper Great Lakes tonight and Thu morning. The resulting pattern would place Upper Mi in a nnw flow between an amplified ridge drifting slowly e into the western Plains and a trough and associated cut-off low developing over the ne CONUS.
455 PM MDT Wed May 3 2017 19z surface analysis had boundary from northern MN to eastern CO with weak high pressure behind it over the western reaches of the CWA.
1115 AM MDT Wed May 3 2017 Imagery continues to show longwave trof across the CONUS with upstream ridge entering the wrn coastal region of the CONUS. SFC has relatively weak cold front through WY and well to the south moving into the srn Plains/Rockies with high P slowly building over the region. taking precip chances along with it(them) as both upper ridge and SFC level high P continues to build over WY.
534 PM EDT Wed May 3 2017 Slow moving low pressure will maintain rain chances through the weekend. Changes for the early eve update were minor and involved only cloud cover as a clear sky will give way to a mid level increase in warmth and moisture in advance of low pressure developing over the lower Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. On Thursday, the low is projected to dig, and cutoff over the Lower Ohio Valley.
A strong upper trough over the eastern Pacific will push a cold front into Western Washington late Thursday.
354 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017 Low pressure currently centered near Texarkana with one warm front along the southern border of Tennessee and a second warm front just south of the Louisiana coast, where it has been anchored all day. Mesoscale models have struggled with convection today, as warm front still has not moved inland.
All of this activity was firing up in response to a deepening low pressure over the plains, and moving into the mid and lower Ms Valley region. Showers and thunderstorms are likely area wide Thursday as the low pressure system continues to deepen. The low will track from AR toward the Ohio Valley, dragging a cold front through our area.
205 PM EDT Wed May 3 2017 Cloud cover will increase through the evening as strong, slow moving low pressure system lifts into the region.
147 PM EDT Wed May 3 2017 Cloud cover will increase through the evening as strong, slow moving low pressure system lifts into the region.
Fair weather will persist as a strong high pressure ridge aloft continues building-in from the west.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a trough extending from the northern plains to southern New Mexico. The upper level trough will swing across Texas and the flow will become northwesterly. The cold front will have passed through our area by the beginning of the period.
215 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 A mid to upper level trough will drift across the Carolinas today, then linger while weakening through the end of the week.
108 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 High pressure will continue to bring sunny skies and warm temperatures to NY and PA. High pressure at the surface and aloft continues over central NY and northeast PA. The high clouds remain in the Catskills and Poconos this afternoon and evening. This is only keeping it a tad cooler this afternoon. Lows also above normal and in the upper 50s and lower 60s tonight and a little cooler Thursday night in the mid and upper 50s.
402 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017 High pressure is already well to our east, situated over western Lake Superior and eastern MN. This will help usher in much warmer air as a warm front pushes north across eastern SD. Highs today will end up 6- 12F warmer than yesterday, topping out in the 80s for most.
A cold cut-off low pressure system is still expected to develop over central Idaho and produce a widespread band of precipitation across Lemhi County in Idaho into southwest Montana beginning this evening and continuing into Friday.
By late Thursday afternoon, the low will be centered over Colorado with a boundary extending northeastward to eastern North Dakota. Conditions will remain dry during this time period, with southerly flow bringing warmer air up into the region. Positive tilt western conus mid level trof will come out in pieces through the period. After Friday night, the entire mean frontal boundary slides a bit further east, taking the highest amounts of available energy with it, thus severe weather looks fairly minimal beyond about 60 to 72 hours.
Snow will bring hazardous travel conditions to the to the passes along I-80 and US-50, and possibly the highest passes on US-6. The surface cold front appears to have passed through the bulk of the CWA early this morning. The band of clouds is showing signs of pivoting that would indicate a baroclinic leaf-like structure developing that may be signaling a slowing of the over upper level trough of low pressure. This means the main impact will be to the higher passes this morning with accumulations down to as low as 6000 feet at times. The heaviest snows will be in the higher elevations.
At the surface, high pressure was centered over the Gulf and winds across our CWA were from the south to southwest. An upper level trough will dig down along the west coast during this period turning the upper flow over Texas to the southwest. The low level flow will remain southerly. An upper level short wave trough will move through the pattern and may provide enough lift to produce isolated showers and thunderstorms over the west tonight and spread to the east Thursday.
338 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017 (Today and Tonight) An upper level trough will deepen over the western states today and tonight. A downstream ridge will extend from East Texas to the northeast across the Midwest and eastern Great Lakes. With a weakness/subtle disturbance over our area on the southwestern portion of this ridge, the possibility of isolated/widely scattered showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out this afternoon through late evening. Temperatures will not be quite as hot today as the 850mb thermal ridge weakens slightly, but highs will still be well-above normal for this time in September, in the mid to upper 90s. Warm and humid conditions are expected tonight, with lows mostly in the lower 70s.
320 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 High pressure will continue to bring sunny skies and warm temperatures to NY and PA. Warm high pressure will yield a continuation of mostly clear skies and mild temperatures. A large dome of high pressure along with a very warm air mass.
However, we do expect southerly winds to increase throughout the morning and early afternoon hours on Thursday with wind gusts of 25-30 mph at times by Thursday afternoon as an area of low pressure deepens across the high plains. A significant upper trough will dig deeply across the western CONUS all the way south to the baja of Mexico. This is one of the most significant troughs we've seen dig across the western United States since spring and will allow for good northward moisture transport across the plains along with cooler temperatures aloft and strong dynamics to generate a rather persist area of showers and thunderstorms along and north of an associated sfc cool front. Most of the precipitation Friday into Friday night will be along and north of the cold front northwest of our forecast area.
a long wave trough was over the pacific northwest and this had brought showers to the area earlier.
An upper level trough centered over the region will continue to bring much cooler than normal temperatures across the area today. Additionally, a weak low, just off the coast, is moving down the backside of the trough and will bring increased showers to the area this morning into this afternoon. On Friday, some lingering light showers are possible as the upper trough remains over the area, gradually moving eastward.
A band of higher moisture extending from the Treasure coast NE into the Atlc is assocd with an old frontal trough. The highest PoPs will be found over Martin/St Lucie counties (30-40 percent) today then moisture should increase northward which should expand the 30 PoPs into Brevard and coastal Volusia tonight. Max temps will be in the lower 90s over the north interior (Orlando/Lake county) with upper 80s along the coast. Lows in the low to mid 70s. The system looks to exploit the weakness in the ridge and follow the wake of TC Jose. Min temps in the low to mid 70s. Best chance for MVFR CIGs/Vsbys will be at VRB/FPR/SUA as showers and isolated storms push onshore today along old frontal trough.
619 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 High pressure will continue to bring sunny skies and warm temperatures to NY and PA. Warm high pressure will yield a continuation of mostly clear skies and mild temperatures. A large dome of high pressure along with a very warm air mass.
Weak high pressure is over the Eastern U. Expect mostly cloudy skies with light winds and lows in the lower 70s. At the surface, a weak reflection of the upper trough will help focus scattered showers and isolated storms.
An elongated trough will cutoff over the Intermountain NW by Friday, keeping cool and unsettled conditions over the region. Models have trended slower, with the upper low still centered over southwest Idaho by Friday afternoon. Thus, have increased chance of precipitation over southwest Idaho and far southeast Oregon as moisture wraps around the low center. The cold upper low and lingering clouds and precipitation will act to keep temperatures well below normal through Friday.
An upper level low will maintain a chance of showers and cooler temperatures over Western Washington today, mainly over the Olympics and Cascades.
254 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017 High pressure aloft will remain anchored from the Great Lakes region southwestward through the Southern Plains during the short term forecast period.
334 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 A mid to upper level trough will drift across the Carolinas today, then linger while weakening through the end of the week. A weak mid/upper level trough/low is slowly sinking south and eastward across the area this morning, helping to support of few lingering showers/storms across mainly western portions of the area (with a few new showers/storms trying to develop across our NE). The weak mid/upper level trough/low will continue to sink south and eastward across the area today, helping to support the development of isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms, with the great threat of showers and storms across southern/southeastern portions of the area. Convection is expected to wane late evening into the overnight/drift to the south of the area as the mid/upper trough/low sinks to the southeast of the area.
358 AM MDT Thu Sep 21 2017 A strong upper level trough and surface cold front will move into the Great Basin today.
137 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will bring warm weather to Pennsylvania through the weekend. Ridge holding strong again Thursday and Thursday night. Beyond the midweek temperatures and the pattern remains stable as a building ridge continues to stifle any convection.
142 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 High pressure will continue to bring sunny skies and warm temperatures to NY and PA. Warm high pressure will yield a continuation of mostly clear skies and mild temperatures.
Meanwhile, the water vapor imagery depicts a weak shear axis with embedded vorticity center spinning over Ncntrl LA, which has been absorbed into a weakness aloft extending ENE into an upper trough axis aloft which has developed on the backside of TS Jose spinning just off the New England coast. This weak shear axis remains progged to drift S into S LA today, coinciding with a weak H700 inverted trough the models have initialized on extending from SE TX NE into portions of lower E TX. Farther N and E, isolated convection is possible in VC with the H500 feature of the inverted trough, with all convection expected to diminish by early evening with the loss of heating.
246 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017 244 AM CDT A few festering showers will continue early this morning near the I-39 corridor ahead of a weakening cold front as it encroaches on an expansive ridge centered along the Appalachians. Meanwhile, an upper low is digging across the Pacific Northwest this morning and will approach the Intermountain West this evening. In response, southwest flow will increase across the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley today lifting a warm front into the far Upper Midwest which should be the focus for convection today. Deubelbeiss 244 AM CDT Large blocking high will be in place over the eastern half of the U.
414 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 High pressure will prevail through this weekend. The high will weaken and shift inland as Hurricane Maria tracks northward off the Southeast U. An upper level trough axis extends through GA and the Carolinas while PWATs look to be more elevated across our GA zones nearing convective initiation this afternoon.
Primary question this period is maximum temp extent underneath tremendous upper ridge blowing up ewd of deep trough carving out through the wrn US and stormy wrn Atlantic through wrn Caribbean. Ridging sfc and aloft builds further to begin this period.
205 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 Only thing to speak about in the Keys weather tonight is a few clouds presently over the Lower Keys.
Otherwise a warm night for the near Autumn season, with 9 PM temperatures in the lower 70s. Through Friday, the 850-500mb ridge will build over the OH and MS Valleys. Along the eastern fringe of the ridge, weak vorticity waves will continue to drop south.
Upper troughing will be over the area through Friday, which should help support scattered thunderstorms.
The cold front has exited the far eastern area of the cwa late this afternoon. High pressure will builds southeast over the area during the night. With light wind and a clear sky, some threat of patchy fog developing under the ridge considering last nights rain. The front will drop into Iowa overnight and as the ridge exits to the east, we will see the front lift back north into southern Minnesota as a warm front by late Thursday afternoon. Temperatures should warm through the lower 80s along and south of the front with 70s to the north.
A semi-cutoff upper low will remain present across the Mid- Atlantic region through this morning and afternoon, with an upper trough axis stretching southwestward into our area.
308 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017 A more diffuse dryline will set up across the area today with backing flow aloft in advance of a trough digging into the western CONUS. A deep long wave trough will still cover the entire western CONUS.
Those areas that saw rainfall today are already seeing temperatures in the low 70s. /17/ The period will start out with a highly amplified pattern over the CONUS as a deep longwave trough digs across the western portion of the US. This will in turn amplify downstream ridging over the mid- Mississippi River Valley and Midwest. This ridging will keep the warmest temperatures in place through the weekend with highs in the low 90s before an upper low retrogrades beneath the ridge and into the ArkLaMiss by the start of next work week. These lower heights will help keep temperatures a few degrees cooler with highs topping out in the upper 80s through the middle of the week.
141 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain parked over the region through the next several days, providing dry conditions and above normal temperatures.
635 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 An upper level trough will drift south of our region today, then linger while weakening through the end of the week. A weak mid/upper level trough/low is slowly sinking south and eastward across the area this morning, helping to support of few lingering showers/storms across mainly western portions of the area (with a few new showers/storms trying to develop across our NE). The weak mid/upper level trough/low will continue to sink south and eastward across the area today, helping to support the development of isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms, with the great threat of showers and storms across southern/southeastern portions of the area. Convection is expected to wane late evening into the overnight/drift to the south of the area as the mid/upper trough/low sinks to the southeast of the area.
High pressure will continue to ridge southward from the northeast U. Otherwise, skies will be partly to mostly sunny with temperatures climbing into the lower 90s. At the start of the medium range period, a high amplitude upper trough will stretch across the Intermountain West with potent upper ridging extended from the Great Lakes region into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.
300 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017 Wx map shows weak high pressure over the Southeast U. Increased moisture from the Eastern Gulf coupled with an deepening upper level low over the Southeast U.
A strong cold front will sweep across Nevada this afternoon bringing windy conditions to much of the area along with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to portions of central Nevada. Much cooler air will filter into the region today through the weekend making conditions feel much like Fall.
400 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 High pressure both at the surface and aloft will build overhead through the weekend. Early this morning, Jose continues to meander off the coast of New England, well to our east, while a ridge of high pressure is building over the midwest aloft. At the surface, the high pressure ridge extends along the Appalachians. The only fly in the ointment is the trough which brought showers and thunderstorms to western Virginia yesterday - this system remains nearby, but is slowly sinking south.
sunny skies for all areas as area remains in cooler airmass on north side of front. high pressure remains in control during this timeframe providing another nice cool and dry night. Looking for overnight lows to range from the mid 40s to the lower 50s. With high pressure nosing southward thru the Plains Region overnight. High pressure sets up to the east of the area thru the day. with low pressure/lee-side troughing over the eastern Rockies.
/issued 350 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017/ A surface front that stalled over western Oklahoma today will retreat/weaken overnight, leaving all of Oklahoma (at least east of the Panhandle) and north Texas in the warmer airmass for tomorrow and Friday. Forecast upper-air soundings suggest a hail threat, although the high freezing level would help reduce that threat somewhat. By Friday, mid-level temperatures should be warm enough to preclude any significant chance of storms, but the weekend will see the approach of a large-scale trough.
337 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017 The pattern over Southeast Texas early this morning consisted of an upper low pressure trough that extended from the Mid Atlantic coast through Louisiana into our area. An upper level high pressure ridge was across North and Central Texas and bordered the northern and western portions of the forecast area.