Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cooler and drier airmass in place. the cold front has pushed thru the entire CWA ushering in much cooler, pleasant and drier air. with highs in the low to mid 70s. Dropped some of the low lying and valley spots into the upper 40s. Upper low bringing well below normal temps Wed-Thu. Warmer with MCS pattern Memorial Day weekend?. Dry weather is short-lived this week, with a deep upper trough digging s-se into the Midwest Tue night. system will bring more sct shra with low WBZ bringing graupel and small pea hail and temps in the mid 60s (might even be in the low 60s in spots).
1124 AM PDT Mon May 22 2017 Dry conditions with warmer temperatures are expected under a ridge of high pressure through Tuesday.
A migrating low pressure center will dramatically cool temperatures midweek and extend morning stratus far inland. On Tuesday the models actually show a little ridge popping up ahead of the upper low to our southwest.
A cold front/upper level trough near the northern Nebraska border. no strong CAA present overnight so area will see slightly below normal lows in the lower to mid 40s. Highs Tuesday will range in the lower to mid 60s.
Updated the forecast to make higher chance POPs follow more closely to the cold front moving through. Went a little cooler than Superblend across north central Kansas due to expectation of clouds and showers through the morning. Behind the cold front, high temperatures will only reach the low 60s with northwest winds gusting to around 30 MPH. A combination of cold air advection and an amplified upper level low will bring a chance for some light showers, particularly during the afternoon.
1215 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017 WV imagery this morning showing large upper level low pressure currently centered in the vicinity of the western Great Lakes. Height falls associated with large upper level low pressure will spread across the northern/central Plains today. Aforementioned impulses will aid in inducing precip along a relatively weak cold front making a southward dash through the Dakotas. allowing for possible generous rainfall amounts overnight before the cold front pushes south of the CWA. upper low/vort max digs down through the upper Midwest into the Mid MS Valley region.
Diurnal convection peaking out this afternoon with the upper level trough moving through. On Tuesday the upper low will exit the region with rising heights at h500 suppressing convection most of the area.
256 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017 Nice weather day today with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the lower to middle 70s across Middle TN. Have rain chances increasing from the southeast tonight and tomorrow as a broad short range vort max rotates around the low that drops out of the great lakes.
A cold front is forecast to push across South Central Texas late Tuesday morning through the afternoon period and brings chances for rain with possibly heavy rain at times along the I-35 airports. A final disturbance in the northwest flow aloft along with a cold front will move quickly through the CWA Tuesday afternoon.
1158 AM MDT Mon May 22 2017 Very well-defined short wave trough pushing eastward across southern Colorado this morning, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continuing across the eastern half of the region as of 10z.
357 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 A cold front will push to the east of Central PA this evening. High pressure then builds in. Cold front now thru about three-fifths of the area, but not in any hurry.
438 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017 Large scale pattern will feature a longwave trough deepening from the upper Mississippi Valley down to the southern plains and western Gulf coast region tonight through Tuesday night, with the associated cold front meandering over the forecast area.
Strong high pressure aloft will bring well above average daytime temperatures through midweek.
Hot temperatures have returned to northwest California as a fairly strong ridge axis slides across the region. Tuesday should see a very similar day as Monday but inland temperatures will be cooler by a few degrees as the ridge begins to break down. On Tuesday a weak cutoff low will undercut the ridge and slowly drift towards the western United States.
If severe storms occur, some severe hail and wind reports, mainly on the lower end of severe spectrum (hail less than golf ball size and winds under 70 mph), would be possible. After midnight tonight into Tuesday morning, a cold front will move south and through the area.
A surface cold front will bring increasing north to northwest surface winds after 06 UTC Tuesday. /issued 320 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017/ Potent s/wv will move over central/southern Rockies today ahead of main trough, allowing the increase in showers and storms across the region. In the wake of mentioned trough, a cold front will make its way over the region tonight and early Tuesday. In wake of the front, cold upper trough will progress over the Southern Plains which may allow development of showers and isolated storms through Tuesday afternoon mainly over central and southeast portions of Oklahoma, with severe storms unlikely.
1235 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017 Isentropic ascent in the 300K to 310K layer, ahead of an upper level trough sliding south through Plains, will lead to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms today. But a freezing level of around 8000 ft during the afternoon may enable small hail in the strongest cells. For Tuesday, the upper trough will be situated overhead. Given the cold air aloft, with a freezing level down to as low as 6000 ft, the 200 to 300 J/kg of MUCAPE will likely be enough to get scattered showers and a few thunderstorms again. The strongest cells may be able to produce small hail given the low freezing levels.
This feature is helping to generate a large area of rain over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Clouds and rain will keep temps a couple of degrees warmer overnight than the previous forecast.
The highest total amounts continue to be expected across the southeast 1/3 of the area to the south of the surface front, and thus we continue to have the flash flood watch in effect for tonight into Tuesday. During the day on Tuesday, look for cooler highs due to the widespread precipitation expected.
324 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 High pressure gives way to a low pressure system moving south and east Tuesday/Tuesday night.
457 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 A low pressure system will move off to our east tonight and higher pressure will begin to build in.
A cold front will move south into the area late tonight with gusty north winds behind it. /issued 155 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017/ Water vapor depicts will a defined a shrtwv trof INVOF nrn NM tracking se within NW flow aloft with trof axis extending sw across NM. As lift assocd with shrtwv trof moves se into ern NM/W TX it will encounter surface dwpnts around 55. A cold front will follow Tue AM and models are in agreement that post-frontal precip will develop. It will be noticeably cooler Tue in wake of the front, but clouds will likely break out late. Thereafter a modest warm-up on Wed followed by a strong trend from the lower left to upper right.
608 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 High pressure will provide a dry Tuesday with seasonal temperatures. With good drying at the surface courtesy of dewpoints in the lower 40s, this should be enough to negate fog development outside of deeper West Virginia gorges. High pressure yields abundant sunshine with daytime fair weather cumulus once temperatures climb into the mid and upper 60s /convective threshold/. Elected to keep a small pops for the higher terrain however, recent runs have backed off on the amount of low level moisture thus QPF if it happens will be a few hundredths as best. Anomalously deep mid level cyclone moves slowly east with outer band of showers reaching parts of eastern Ohio by late morning then taking its sweet old time before reaching western Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia toward supper time.
The likelihood of precip will increase again during the early morning hours in northwest and then continue to increase to the east and south during the day tomorrow as the main boundary/low pressure area finally gets into the CWA. So, expecting lows in the 50s with highs Tuesday afternoon cooler. in the lower to middle 60s. The low pressure area that moves into the area will become filled/vertically stacked and then slowly spin over the eastern midwest/western OH valley through Thur morning.
A cold front will move south across the area Tuesday morning, with winds becoming north.
The approach of a 250 millibar jet core on eastern side of trough will be enhancing upper divergence as well. The 500 millibar low will keep disturbances pivoting in from the southwest as overall trough axis remains to our west through the end of the day. So POPS will be on the higher side this period though some dry times as well.
229 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 A weak cold front will push east through the region tonight.
222 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 A cold front will push to the east of Central PA this evening. High pressure then builds in. Cold front now thru about three-fifths of the area, but not in any hurry.
Temperatures are currently in the lower to upper 70s. The active weather pattern will continue tomorrow as an impulse rotating around the main upper low will send a cold front south into Texas. CAPE values will approach 1500-2500 J/kg with the higher values across the southern counties where the best chances for severe storms will be located and this is where a slight risk is in effect.
An area of low pressure over northeast Ontario will shift east into Quebec tonight, while an upper-level low near the Minnesota/Ontario border will drop south through Minnesota tonight. The cool and humid northerly flow, combined with the upper low's cyclonic flow, could produce some light rain or sprinkles ahead of and in the wake of the passing upper low through Tuesday. Much of the region will be limited to highs in the low to middle 50s Tuesday, about 10 to 15 degrees below seasonal normals.
Otherwise, highs today will peak in the 60s, which is from the cooler side of solutions considering all the precip and cloud cover today. Even cooler highs are expected Tuesday as a cool high pressure center prevails across the Plains.
Drier and warmer weather conditions are expected Tuesday with an upper level ridge advancing into the region with associated height rises.
100 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017 Updated the forecast to make higher chance POPs follow more closely to the cold front moving through. Went a little cooler than Superblend across north central Kansas due to expectation of clouds and showers through the morning. Behind the cold front, high temperatures will only reach the low 60s with northwest winds gusting to around 30 MPH. A combination of cold air advection and an amplified upper level low will bring a chance for some light showers, particularly during the afternoon.
Strong onshore flow will develop on Tuesday with an upper level trough rapidly moving toward Western Washington spreading clouds into the area and bringing cooler conditions.
334 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017 Diurnal convection peaking out this afternoon with the upper level trough moving through. On Tuesday the upper low will exit the region with rising heights at h500 suppressing convection most of the area.
/Issued 335 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017/ Broad upper trough centered over southern Canada continues to result in cyclonic northwest upper flow over the plains states with trey warm sector air suppressed well to our south at present. At this time it appears the best chance of thunderstorms and attendant severe weather/heavy rainfall threat will be early in the weekend, with front bringing cooler and drier airmass south for the end of the holiday.
in the lower and mid 60s most areas. Tonight the short wave exits to the southeast and the upper trough drops south over the area. The day will start with the previous day's low pressure center located near KMKE while a large upper level low shifts into central Minnesota. Thus, the expectations are to have scattered to numerous showers rotate through the area about the large upper low with the potential that stronger showers could produce small hail (a.
558 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 A cold front will push to the east of Central PA this evening. High pressure then builds in. Cold front now thru about three-fifths of the area, but not in any hurry.
A cold front is expected to move through Tuesday morning, resulting in gusty north winds through mid day. /issued 327 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017/ Current radar shows a little convection north of Lea County this morning, but much more is expected later today as an upper level trough dives southeast out of the Rockies. This activity will move east out of the area this evening before the trough pushes a cold front south later tonight with more rainfall expected along and behind this boundary. Clouds and rain kept the high in Midland at an astonishing 71 degrees yesterday, and while it should be warmer today we are still expecting highs to be well below normal again.
The coldest temperatures will be felt in our east, while the west should reach the lower 60s.
139 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 Dry weather is in store for today as high pressure tracks across the Ohio Valley.
335 PM MDT Mon May 22 2017 A cold Canadian low pressure trough and cold front moving south across the area this afternoon will bring areas of showers, with snow above 8500 feet, and isolated thunderstorms with strong wind gusts and small hail. The cold air will keep freezing temperatures across the snow pack tonight with some lows in the mid to lower 20s in the northern and central mountains and higher valleys.
Onshore winds will increase this evening as an upper level trough approaches, for cooler temperatures on Tuesday.
311 PM MDT Mon May 22 2017 The early afternoon GOES water vapor loop showed a upper low spinning north of MN and a stout upper ridge from the eastern Pacific into southwest Canada. The threat for small hail is present given the low-topped convection and fairly low wet-bulb heights. A cold front was moving southeast across the Interstate 80 corridor. The upper ridge to the west will make a slow trek to the east across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies Tuesday.
Concur with the GFS/ECMWF deterministic that an upper level disturbance will dig S/SE across the Plains during the period and reinforce/maintain the upper trough over the CNTRL CONUS. In response, a cold front is expected to move across the CWA/MSA Tuesday night.
The second impulse continues to drop southeast across western South Dakota/Nebraska this afternoon allowing a surface cold front to push southeast. A break in pcpn is likely through much of Tuesday morning however with the heating of the day, we think occasional showers will pop up and rotate southeast within the northwesterly flow around the big upper low.
Scattered rain showers will remain possible into the overnight hours before a cold front moves through the region. Behind the cold front. This wave was ahead of a main trof axis. associated with a parent closed low over Southern Ontario.
High pressure over us now will shift eastward allowing for a light easterly flow tonight. Weak isentropic lift kicks in Tuesday night ahead of that broad area of low pressure which looks to be deepening over far western Kentucky overnight. as an upper level low drops south out of Iowa.
Otherwise, a high pressure ridge transitions across this area on Tuesday, bringing the warmest temperatures expected this week.
Cold front will very slowly progress southweastward through the day on Tuesday with a continued threat for precipitation. Highest chance of showers and storms because of the timing of the cold front will be across central portions of the forecast area. Coolest locations are expected to be across northwestern sections of the forecast area with highs in the low 60s and warmest areas including portions of southwest Illinois and southeast Missouri topping out in the low 70s.
306 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 An upper-level composite analysis early this afternoon reveals a weak high pressure ridge from the western subtropical North Atlantic to the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Some light showers caused by a broad area of upper low pressure system which will stay in place over the region for at least the next 24 hours for more cool and wet conditions.
503 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 A weak cold front will push east through the region tonight.
240 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 High pressure will clear skies out tonight, allowing for a cool and clear Tuesday morning.
116 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 Low pressure located north of Lake Superior will continue to move slowly east across Canada today. High pressure will push up the Ohio Valley later today and move to the east coast on Tuesday.
247 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 High pressure will move east of the region this evening.
The other area of clouds and light showers will drop southward later tonight and Tuesday as upper trough drops south.
Another lobe of energy rotates through mean trough.
Surface analysis this afternoon showed a remnant boundary/ cold front stretching from near La Ward to south of Houston Hobby Airport to Winnie, with scattered showers developing along this boundary as it moves southeast towards the coast. This will send another cold front across the region during the day Tuesday and off the coast Tuesday night, with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing along and behind the front as it moves south. Expect the cold front to push off the coast Tuesday night with rain chances tapering off form north to south as drier air filters in behind the front, with lows Tuesday night in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
135 PM MDT Mon May 22 2017 A cold Canadian low pressure trough and cold front moving south across the area this afternoon will bring areas of showers, with snow above 8500 feet, and isolated thunderstorms with strong wind gusts and small hail. The cold air will keep freezing temperatures across the snow pack tonight with some lows in the mid to lower 20s in the northern and central mountains and higher valleys.
Mid-afternoon observations indicated stratus was eroding aggressively across far eastern NM ahead of discrete storms from Santa Rosa to Roswell within a Theta-E ridge. Otherwise, the brunt of surface based convection should depart the region before midnight ahead of deepening northerly flow behind the upper trough and cold front. On the heels of tonight's cold front, a more robust cold front (presently in northeast CO) should reach the CWA before sunrise ahead of 20-30 mph northerly winds.
Visible satellite at 1130 AM captured an axis of boundary layer Cu development already underway in NM from Las Vegas south to Cloudcroft coincident with a Theta-E ridge. Further insolation will serve to erode MLCINH in these areas and lead to storm initiation in a few hours, particularly as an upper trough axis tracks SE. /issued 251 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017/ RAP and IR satellite analysis showed a large upper level low pressure center spinning over the US/Canadian border along the Minnesota state line this morning. This low is large enough currently to be dominating much of the flow in the CONUS minus the extreme western CONUS where a ridge of high pressure is beginning to build. A cold front will be driving southward overnight, and storms are expected to fire ahead of this feature.
The arrival of cooler, drier air along with the lingering rainfall potential should put the kibosh on convection later Tuesday night, and also allow low temps to dip into the 60s for the northwest 2/3 of the CWA.
247 PM MDT Mon May 22 2017 High pressure will be present over the Northern Rockies through Tuesday evening.
For now have highs in the low to mid 70s, while lows tonight will be in the 50s. Period will begin with upper low moving swd from the Great Lakes region. This upper low/trof sinks swd Tues into Wed bringing a reinforcing cdfnt thru the region and more rain. Given the persistent cyclonic flow, have trended temp twd the cooler guidance thru mid week. Cold front will move through during the day with winds switching to the north/northwest along with MVFR ceilings. Thunderstorms will also be possible ahead of a cold front on Tuesday afternoon.
Have some concern that the low may shift a bit to the north as better baroclinicity actually exits from west central LA into southwest MS. Most of the heavy rainfall will depart into AL by 12Z Tuesday, but digging mid level trough and at least a few breaks in the cloud cover should be sufficient for scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Freezing wind chill temperatures across northern and inland areas still this morning, with actual freezing temperatures across inland Levy county.
643 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2017 Near-term grids mostly on track but temps still just a bit warmer than forecast but still 20s in all but far southeast. Some concern that we might see freezing fog this morning or late tonight, but based on observed trends and very dry conditions immediately above the surface, no fog is anticipated. Black ice potential exists nonetheless, but may be a little lower coverage due to slightly warmer temps. Larger scale pattern remains fairly static through the period with ridging dominating the western half of the country and troughing over the east. A couple of decent short waves sweep through the large eastern trough through the upcoming workweek.
517 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017 Clear and frosty, but jsut a bit warmer than yesterday's big chill. Winds are calm now and will be Southwesterly for today with high pressure rotating winds clockwise around it's center down over the Texas coastal bend.
Temperatures are cool, with some spots like Sacramento International Airport, Redding, Fairfield already at or near freezing. An extensive atmospheric blocking pattern continues to maintain the current weather with little change in sight.
222 AM PST Sun Dec 10 2017 High pressure will remain over the region for the next several days. Central California remains under a large upper level ridge, which will provide another day of hazy sunshine today with little change in temperatures. A weak low pressure system is off the coast of northern Baja this morning. Models handle the synoptic pattern similarly, moving the weak upper low slowly inland across Baja beneath the ridge today with it remaining in the vicinity of northwest Mexico/Baja through the middle of the week. There are some model differences by the end of the week, but generally the ridge axis shifts more offshore with a dry northerly flow developing over our area into the weekend.
1003 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2017 Cold and dry high pressure will be over the region today through Monday night with temperatures well below normal.
508 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017 An upper level trough presently centered over the Ohio Valley will shift eastward today while upper level ridging to our west nudges into our area. Low pressure over south central Canada drops into the Upper Mississippi Valley by late tonight, driving a cold front into our area by Monday morning. The cold front sweeps through the region on Monday, and it will become windy in a tight gradient and winds at the top of the mixed layer running around 40 to 45 kts, resulting in the potential for near Wind Advisory criteria at times, so will be something to watch for in future forecasts.
Massive upper high pressure ridge over the western U.
540 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2017 A strong upper level trough and accompanying surface cold front will cross the Carolinas early this morning. High pressure will build into the area and extend across the region through Monday.
A cold pattern will continue through this work week with a strong ridge out west and a deep trough over the eastern states.
305 AM MST Sun Dec 10 2017 Fairly quiet and dry weather is expected through this week as high pressure remains parked across the Western United States. Temperatures will be well above average for this time of year with highs in the middle 70s across the lower deserts.
However, temperatures should range from the low/mid 40s east to near 50 over far NW Alabama.
/issued 517 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017/ Clear and frosty, but just a bit warmer than yesterday's big chill. Winds are calm now and will be Southwesterly for today with high pressure rotating winds clockwise around it's center down over the Texas coastal bend.