Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Meanwhile, breezes remain moderate to fresh across the area thanks to a high pressure to our north and Tropical Storm Grace, currently near Grand Cayman Islands. The previously mentioned high pressure will hold tight just off the southeastern U.
341 AM MDT Wed Aug 18 2021 The low pressure circulation responsible for recent widespread rainfall across the Northern Rockies will slowly drift south and east of the region today.
Warm rain processes, deep layer moisture in place, and a low level jet on the ern side of the low should support heavy rain at times. The rain should taper off from SW to NE this afternoon and early evening as the low completes its passage. Much of the rain is expected to end this evening, though isolated showers should remain possible overnight as a broad upper trough approaches. This trough should result in scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday as it slowly approaches, and diurnally driven instability develops.
Warm rain processes, deep layer moisture in place, and a low level jet on the ern side of the low should support heavy rain at times. Followed close to the track of the HRRR and RAP, as upper air and sfc analysis show these models to be handling the track of the low well. The rain should taper off from SW to NE this afternoon and early evening as the low completes its passage. Much of the rain is expected to end this evening, though isolated showers should remain possible overnight as a broad upper trough approaches. This trough should result in scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday as it slowly approaches, and diurnally driven instability develops.
515 AM MDT Wed Aug 18 2021 Current surface map places low over southwest North Dakota with cold front in southeast Montana/northern Wyoming. Cold front slides into western South Dakota this morning. Water vapor showers upper level trof moving into Northern Rockies. Biggest question for today will be eastward progression of the cold front as hi-res/short term guidance has front stalling out along eastern edge of forecast area. Narrow axis of instability along the cold front may support isolated thunderstorms late today. Lead impulse rotates out of upper trof into eastern Wyoming tonight.
1051 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021 Another hot day expected for east central Florida, with temperatures in the low to mid-90s. High pressure axis stretching from the Northeast into central Florida will help filter in drier air from the southeast into the local area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon, mainly west of I-4, with the highest chances occurring for KLEE after 22Z.
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021 The weak stationary front lingers to the northwest as high pressure ridging expands into the forecast area. The forecast period starts off tomorrow with elongated sub- tropical ridging extending from the Gulf of Mexico into the southeast states. At the same time, a deep trough will be ejecting from the Four Corners region and into the Great Plains.
1219 AM EDT Wed Oct 13 2021 Clouds will gradually decrease through tonight and it will be notably cooler. This, and a brief episode of cold air advection, will allow lows to fall into the low-50s; likely our coldest lows so far this month but still well above normal. Mild air returns on Wednesday as the low-level flow becomes southwesterly ahead of a large cyclone lifting northeast through the Central Plains. A warm front moves into our area late in the afternoon offering a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
1247 AM EDT Wed Oct 13 2021 Warm and dry weather will continue through much of the week under high pressure.
A warm front is lifting north and currently situated across southern AR extending east through Memphis, Jackson and into middle TN. The warm front will continue to lift north through the morning and could spark a few showers across the north. However, most areas are expected to remain dry with upper ridging over the area. By tonight, ridging will start to weaken as a developing closed low to our west starts tracking northeast.
342 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021 The high pressure circulation has shifted eastward due to the front that approached and stalled yesterday. As we'll continue to have southerly flow, temperatures will again rise into the low-to-mid 80s this afternoon.
1109 PM EDT Tue Oct 12 2021 An anomalous upper level ridge will build over the eastern seaboard the rest of this week.
Water vapor imagery shows the powerful upper low lifting over southeast WY/western Nebraska. By 12z Thu, there is good model agreement that upper trough will extend through the Great Basin into the Central Rockies with the trough forecast to swing across the Plains on Thu night into Fri. By Fri afternoon, the upper trough will be swinging into the Mississippi Valley pushing the better precip chances east.
300 AM EDT Wed Oct 13 2021 Warm and dry weather will continue through much of the week under high pressure.
A cold front pushing across the CWA will push any remaining storms east into central and south central Kansas in the next couple of hours.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 64 84 65 83 / 10 10 0 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 63 83 64 83 / 10 10 0 0 20 Oak Ridge, TN 80 63 83 64 81 / 10 10 0 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 59 82 61 81 / 10 10 0 0 10.
/issued 916 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021/ Sfc warm front has now moved north of the I-20 Corridor but south of the AR/LA border into NE TX as of 02z. It's this same gradient and the increase in the low level wind field that will result in a return to low stratus overnight that will slow the temperature fall overnight across most of the region. Concerning pops, the southeast half of our region continues to be under the influence of upper level ridging with the ridge axis currently residing from the Western Gulf of Mexico, north and east into SE LA.
Some weak short wave energy will be lifting up the west side of the ridge today, but any precipitation should stay to our west and northwest.
410 AM EDT Wed Oct 13 2021 High pressure will provide dry and warm conditions today.
Early this afternoon, a major mid-latitude cyclone was maturing out across western Colorado. The only thing that has really changed, and has become increasingly concerning, is that the low level moisture (62-65F dewpoints) will be making a run on southwest Kansas a little bit quicker than previously forecast.
1108 PM EDT Tue Oct 12 2021 Warm and dry weather will continue through much of the week under high pressure.
Areas to the east of these counties will be dry but stay on the cooler side. As this system finally makes its exit, ridging will slide in behind with temperatures warming back towards normal. Dry conditions will impact the lower elevations with snow showers over the mountains.
After the main band of pcpn moves through, more isolated thunderstorms are possible during the mid to late afternoon as the upper low moves across the region. SPC has drawn up a marginal risk of severe for the eastern CWA this afternoon, likely due to cold temperatures aloft with the upper low. For tonight the system gradually pulls away from the area, but a fair amount of cloudiness is expected to remain, thus keeping lows a bit warmer than would otherwise be expected.
The weak stationary front lingers to the northwest as high pressure ridging expands into the forecast area. The forecast period starts off tomorrow with elongated sub- tropical ridging extending from the Gulf of Mexico into the southeast states. At the same time, a deep trough will be ejecting from the Four Corners region and into the Great Plains.
Thursday onward a ridge slowly builds over the northern Rockies.
Coleman, Concho, Sutton counties have been added to the Flash South winds were stronger than expected today due to a strong lee trough, and a wind advisory has been issued for the Big Country and Concho Valley until 1 AM CDT.
A light dusting of snow will be possible over the higher peaks in that area as well.
844 AM EDT Wed Oct 13 2021 Warm and dry weather will continue through much of the week under high pressure.
340 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 In the wake of a weather system that brought snow to Southwestern Montana to start the week, slightly warmer temperatures are expected today. A weak high pressure system will sneak through the region in the wake of this system, which will allow temperatures to moderate slightly as winds remain on the light side.
Although a ridge will move into the area for the remainder of the week; weak disturbances will keep things more on the unsettled side with a chance of rain each day.
633 AM EDT Wed Oct 13 2021 High pressure will continue to build into the area the next couple of days.
In the wake of a weather system that brought snow to Southwestern Montana to start the week, slightly warmer temperatures are expected today. A weak high pressure system will sneak through the region in the wake of this system, which will allow temperatures to moderate slightly as winds remain on the light side.
On the national map, a large upper trough was situated over the Four Corners region with an upper ridge over the Nrn Gulf Coast. A closed upper low was lifting NE across the the Nrn Rockies within an area of large scale forcing for ascent via the parent aforementioned trough. At the surface, a strong low was collocated beneath the upper low with a cold front draped back to the SW across the Cntrl/Srn Plains. Aloft the upper trough will eject into the Srn Plains spurring a new surface cyclone over OK/KS.
A few of the heavier bands of managed to sneak south and east into portions of Laramie/Scotts Bluff/Banner counties and have resulted in local whiteout conditions in areas where only the High Wind Warnings were previously in effect. The highest probability for warning- criteria winds for most areas should be around 18z.
Cold temperatures expected with much of northern Arizona above 4,000 feet experiencing freezing temperatures this morning. Cold temperatures are in the forecast today and the next several days as a broad upper-level trough persists over the western U. Elevations above 4,000 feet will likely experience freezing temperatures this morning with higher altitudes dropping into the 20s and teens. Chilly conditions can be expected each day through the end of the week as the trough remains in place.
After the main band of pcpn moves through, more isolated thunderstorms are possible during the mid to late afternoon as the upper low moves across the region. SPC has drawn up a marginal risk of severe for the eastern CWA this afternoon, likely due to cold temperatures aloft associated with the upper low, and for strong wind shear. For tonight the system gradually pulls away from the area, but a fair amount of cloudiness is expected to remain, thus keeping lows a bit warmer than would otherwise be expected. At 500mb, the trough will still reside from Manitoba through eastern MT/WY/CO.
923 AM EDT Wed Oct 13 2021 High pressure will continue to build into the area the next couple of days.
Unseasonably cool temperatures will continue for another day or so, but increasing high pressure through the rest of the week will bring a gradual warming trend into the coming weekend. The unseasonably cool air mass remains in place across the Desert Southwest with early morning temperatures already dipping into the upper 40s in the typical cooler rural lower desert locations.
637 AM EDT Wed Oct 13 2021 Weak low pressure over eastern Lake Superior will push an ill-defined and very weak frontal boundary east across PA later this morning and this afternoon with little temperature change for Thursday.
These areas will continue to see light accumulation as the low undergoes lee cyclogenesis, keeping snow wrapping around through mid-morning. A breezy west wind will develop across the Wind Corridor from Sweetwater through Natrona counties in response to the low situated to our east.
907 AM EDT Wed Oct 13 2021 Weak inverted trough exists right at the coast that will push onshore and break down across the area today, with high pressure in control across the southeast United States. This will keep a relatively light E/NE flow across the region in the lower levels, which continues to transport isolated showers from over the waters onshore along the coast this morning. Thunderstorm potential doesn't look too promising with weak mid- level lapse rates and warmer than normal temps aloft (around -4C to -5C at 500mb).
614 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021 The upper air pattern this morning was highly amplified with a compact energetic low near the NE Panhandle, and a strong ridge across the Gulf Coast and southeast U. Return southerly flow was well underway over the lower MS Valley region into TX, OK and KS in association with deep low pressure over west NE. Through the day, as the storm system over the Plains moves northeast, a warm front will lift northeast across our area, with weak impulses running SW/NE in the mean flow aloft.
531 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 Low pressure rotating over the Nebraska Panhandle/Southeast Wyoming has continued to provide wrap around moisture feeding into northwest Colorado and northeast Utah. The short- lived break will terminate as the next deepening trough shifts east and returns winter weather over the northern zones overnight into Thursday morning. The trough's axis and its associated cold front will swoop across the region Thursday which will drive up PoPs from the northwest to southeast throughout the day. The cold front is projected to reach the northwestern San Juans by Thursday evening.
High pressure and drier air will keep temps warm in the upper 80s to around 90 this afternoon with only an isolated shower or storm possible mainly south of I-4 in the afternoon and early evening with the light easterly flow and sea breeze near the coast. Light winds and seas under high pressure with generally E/NE flow and a sea breeze near the coast each day.
Current satellite imagery shows the low centered over southeastern Wyoming and western Nebraska, slowly moving its way north northeast into our forecast area. On radar, widespread moderate to heavy precipitation covers most of the CWA out ahead of the low. The higher accumulating snowfall will still be expected in the aforementioned areas. As the low moves towards our region, a tightening pressure gradient has increased the winds with gusts of 35-45 mph ongoing this morning, and is expected to increase more as the low moves east of the Black Hills.
Current water vapor imagery shows an upper level low spinning over Wyoming and eastern Nebraska. Models continue to focus the highest rainfall totals of 2-4+ inches across portions of the Heartland and northwest Hill Country.
Large trough remains anchored out west for now, so little in the way of progression of the cold front associated with the low is expected as it quickly loses any forcing. Both days will be in the low to mid 80s which is as much as 10 degrees above average in north Georgia.
and Thursday A closed upper low will move north across the Dakotas today to near Lake Winnipeg by Thursday morning. Some elevated showers are possible in the afternoon as the warm front approaches. Sunny and mild weather is expected Thursday as high pressure moves in from the Plains states.
The high pressure circulation has shifted eastward due to the front that approached and stalled yesterday. As we'll continue to have southerly flow, temperatures will again rise into the low-to-mid 80s this afternoon. This same pattern remains in place through Thursday as the trough over the Northern Plains works to break down the ridge over the Southeast.
1001 AM EDT Wed Oct 13 2021 High pressure will provide dry and warm conditions today.
1012 AM EDT Wed Oct 13 2021 A bit of a soggy start to the day in the Lower Keys, with Key West radar rainfall estimates beginning to push towards one half inch. From a synoptic standpoint, there is an inverted trough evident in the lower boundary layer, which seems to have pushed slightly to our west in the last 24 hours.
523 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 Current satellite imagery shows the low centered over southeastern Wyoming and western Nebraska, slowly moving its way north northeast into our forecast area. On radar, widespread moderate to heavy precipitation covers most of the CWA out ahead of the low. The higher accumulating snowfall will still be expected in the aforementioned areas. As the low moves towards our region, a tightening pressure gradient has increased the winds with gusts of 35-45 mph ongoing this morning, and is expected to increase more as the low moves east of the Black Hills.
expect strong westerly winds to develop as the main upper level low lifts north across the Dakotas and mixing to near 800mb will result in wind gusts to near 50 MPH at times through mid-afternoon.
Deep-layered southwesterly flow ahead of the strong upper cyclone lifting into the Plains will draw deep moisture and the remains of Pamela across TX and into southeast OK/western AR later today through Thursday.
Dry conditions should prevail tonight and Thursday before the upper high to our south breaks down as the strong Plains trough moves eastward.
Wind sheltered mountain valleys are forecast to cool to as low as 25F with enough widespread sub freezing temperatures to prompt the end of the growing season.
540 AM EDT Wed Oct 13 2021 Warm and dry weather will continue through much of the week under high pressure.
210 AM MST Wed Oct 13 2021 Unseasonably cool temperatures will continue for another day or so, but increasing high pressure through the rest of the week will bring a gradual warming trend into the coming weekend. The unseasonably cool air mass remains in place across the Desert Southwest with early morning temperatures already dipping into the upper 40s in the typical cooler rural lower desert locations.
This, combined with southerly flow will help to raise our temperatures into the low to mid 80s once again at most locations. This same pattern remains in place through Thursday as the trough over the Northern Plains works to break down the ridge over the Southeast.
401 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 Low pressure rotating over the Nebraska Panhandle/Southeast Wyoming has continued to provide wrap around moisture feeding into northwest Colorado and northeast Utah. The short- lived break will terminate as the next deepening trough shifts east and returns winter weather over the northern zones overnight into Thursday morning. The trough's axis and its associated cold front will swoop across the region Thursday which will drive up PoPs from the northwest to southeast throughout the day. The cold front is projected to reach the northwestern San Juans by Thursday evening.
230 AM PDT Wed Oct 13 2021 A chilly morning will feature freezing temperatures for parts of the mountains and high desert.
646 AM EDT Wed Oct 13 2021 High pressure will provide dry and warm conditions today.
Strong low pressure will track across portions of the northern Sandhills as it moves northeast.
Some locales around Sonoita are in the upper 20s with many other areas near/at freezing. As the upper low moves northeast into the northern Great Plains today and Canada on Thursday, nearly zonal flow occurs across Arizona with gradually moderating temperatures, but still 9-14 degs below normal for mid October.
High pressure ridging will continue to dominate the weather pattern today, ensuring that prevailing flow will continue to be from out of the northeast. High temperatures for today will be in the in the mid to upper 80s with overnight low temperatures will range within the 60s for most inland areas and in the lower 70s for areas near the coast and in north central Florida.
510 AM EDT Wed Oct 13 2021 Weak low pressure over eastern Lake Superior will push an ill-defined and very weak frontal boundary east across PA later this morning and this afternoon with little temperature change for Thursday.
A large area of low pressure will cross the region today with the low centroid passing north through the Dakotas. There is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening with plentiful shear, but instability is weak in this cooler system. Eventually some elevated convection may develop on a pool of warm air aloft, but a stable layer in the lowest 5kft will keep wind from being a threat and the hail growth zone in the model soundings is almost non-existent even though freezing levels are 10kft. After this system crosses and the wind effects lull on Thursday afternoon, the rest of the forecast is quite benign with cooler temperatures and dry weather expected. Probably some foggy mornings ahead too under high pressure. The large area of low pressure in South Dakota at 18Z, will lift north into Manitoba late tonight.
229 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021 Warm and quiet weather pattern continues as an upper-level ridge has parked over the area. A deep, upper-level trough will move out of the Central U.
Areas to the east of these counties will be dry but stay on the cooler side. As this system finally makes its exit, ridging will slide in behind with temperatures warming back towards normal. Dry conditions will impact the lower elevations with snow showers over the mountains. High temperatures today and Thursday will be in the 40s in the west cooling to the east into the low 30s.
Deep layer high pressure ridge will continue to build across the area continuing the dry and warm pattern.
Upper level ridging remains dominant over the southeastern U. Low level southeasterlies thanks to the high centered to our northeast will continue to foster rather moist low levels today and Thursday.
An approaching ridge will allow for temperatures to warm up to above average by this weekend.
1125 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021 As of 11AM, surface observations show the cold front still positioned across western Oklahoma (from Cherokee to Hinton to Tipton). The latest high resolution models suggest that the front will slowly sag towards southeastern Oklahoma and become quasi- stationary this afternoon before retreating as a warm front tonight.
343 PM EDT Wed Oct 13 2021 A large area of high pressure will linger through the work week.
A warm front has moved into Kentucky with a few weak showers to our north and to our west.
Lastly, the region will remain dry again as high pressure persists at the surface with no other notable synoptic features around the region.
209 PM EDT Wed Oct 13 2021 At the surface, high pressure will continue to ridge across the area from the north through the end of the week, keeping a light east to northeast flow in place with an afternoon sea breeze developing near the coast each afternoon.
342 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021 A large storm system over the central Plains will track into south central Canada tonight, pushing a cold front into central Illinois tonight and lingering in the area the next few days.
As the low pushes north tonight, we'll lose some of the surface pressure gradient, and therefore winds will come down quite a bit. However, winds aloft look like they could stay up a bit, especially north of I-80, so this may keep us a degree or 2 warmer than we otherwise would be. Thursday looks to be largely dry and a bit cooler, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
A warm front has moved into Kentucky with a few weak showers to our north and to our west. A warm front is in the process of lifting northward across Middle Tennessee.
Ridging and dry air over the Southeast will suppress rain chances and produce warm conditions through tomorrow. Tranquil conditions expected overnight with lows in the 60s and high clouds streaming eastward across the area ahead of broad troughing over the Central CONUS. The trough will move closer to the region tomorrow which will nudge the ridge eastward, but rain chances associated with the trough will remain well to our west, so expect similar conditions of partly cloudy skies and warm temps.
1142 AM EDT Wed Oct 13 2021 High pressure will continue to build into the area the next couple of days.