Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
For today, high pressure will lead to a round of slightly above normal temperatures and breezy northeast winds. For today, high pressure will begin to build into the area bringing dry weather, near normal temperatures and breezy northeast winds. For the weekend, high pressure strengthens with a return to above normal daytime temperatures and lighter winds. Winds will decrease Saturday as high pressure builds across Arizona from the west.
1224 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 High pressure overnight and Friday.
Clouds should slowly slide to the east today and off the Plateau later this evening as the upper trough axis approaches Middle Tennessee from the west.
Drier air aloft will build in behind the exiting jet and trough, but a second, more amplified trough axis will be approaching. The thermal trough will create steep lapse rates in the late afternoon and evening across northern sections, generating scatterd snow showers, and a 30 kt upslope flow will enhance snowfall in the higher terrain. Fast movement of the trough and limited moisture depth should hold accumulations below 2 inches in most of the mountains, with less than an inch in lower elevations of NE TN and SW VA.
The relatively weak system's cold front will move in from the northwest in the 12-15z time frame. With highs in the low to mid 30s, road conditions should improve quickly once the snowfall has ended. The current pattern is expected to continue with a large trough over the eastern CONUS. The trough will funnel cool air from Canada as well as some small disturbances from the north that could bring some light precipitation through the week.
302 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 Low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will track northward off the east coast late tonight and Saturday.
The upper level trough will continue to push away from West Texas tonight. Our area will sit at the base of an upper level ridge centered over the West Coast. At the surface a leeside trough will help tighten the pressure gradient across the area tomorrow. Expect the slow and gradual warming trend to continue, with temperatures warming into the low 60s for highs.
This precipitation was occurring within rather deep troughing affecting much of the central/eastern lower-48. Complicating the forecast for today include, air temperatures in much of the Tennessee Valley were near and below freezing. In our area, we've recently received reports of roads/bridges in central Cullman county getting covered by snow. Quiet weather will continue to dominant the week ahead with very limited chances for precipitation -- and generally continued troughing and below normal temperatures. A cold front will track toward the region on Saturday, though the best lift and any available moisture will be well to the northeast.
Without falling snow and temps warming into the low - mid 30s this aftn in warm air west of the system any snow on the ground movement should be very limited. A cold front will shift surface winds to the northwest and cold advection behind the wave will create some higher winds in the 18Z to 03Z timeframe. Colder overnight lows in the low teens to around ten in eastern North Dakota.
1136 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017 A trough axis will move across the area early in the period shifting winds to the northwest with rising heights/increasing thickness in it's wake. Abundant mid clouds/virga will be present early in the period, but the lower half of the column appears to dry for any flurries to reach the ground.
There are only subtle changes to the overall weather pattern in the coming days, so high pressure remains the dominate feature. Like much of northwestern Montana valleys, the Missoula and Bitterroot valleys are now being impacted with the low stratus and fog. The low stratus in KMSO may lower to a couple hundred feet with the formation of fog by 09/1200Z tomorrow morning, greatly reducing visibility.
1136 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017 A positively tilted, multi-stream trough from Ontario to northwest Mexico will advance southeast in response to the progression of an upstream perturbation from northern Manitoba into the upper-MS Valley today and the mid-MS/lower-OH Valleys tonight. In the low levels, a cold front will move through the area this morning along with increasing low to mid-level clouds. Highs on Saturday will range from around 30 to the lower 30s in our IA counties to upper 30s to around 40s across the counties in the western part of our area.
1133 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017 A cold front passing through the area this afternoon will bring breezy N-NW winds at all terminals. /issued 342 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017/ Northeasterly flow was in place across the forecast area this morning as the upper level trough that has brought a plethora of precipitation types across the state continues to slowly move off to the east. This will likely allow min temperatures for most of the forecast area to make it into the low teens, and I wouldn't be surprised if a few locations in the Rolling Plains flirt with single digits before the cloud cover starts to increase.
Low pressure system will impact the area tonight through Saturday.
1142 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017 A low pressure center was at the border of eastern Manitoba/southwestern Ontario, with a cold front extending west/northwestward across northern Manitoba. Over North Dakota, westerly to northwesterly winds of 15 to 25 mph ahead of this cold front, as well as cloud cover moving across the region, should keep temperatures in the 30s for today across western and central North Dakota. This could lead to slick roads as blowing or drifting snow may stick to the road surface with near freezing surface temperatures, followed by sub-freezing temperatures this evening and tonight. The biggest threat would be across the Turtle Mountains through the James River Valley where temperatures will be the coolest today in the lower 30s so that the snow does not become too sticky to become resistant to blowing or drifting.
This boundary will move East Saturday afternoon as high pressure builds from the West.
Tonight other than perhaps a brief cloud deck in association with a backdoor cold front that is forecast to move through central Kansas most of the forecast region should be quiet tonight as the gusty winds will die down after sunset. The past few days have been effective for radiational cooling so I saw no reason why much of the area couldn't fall into the lower 20s. Upper level flow continues to stay primarily north to northwest through the time period as the ridge over the Rockies starts to gradually move east through the day Saturday. This should allow slightly warmer air to move into the region Saturday afternoon.
202 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 Low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will track northward off the east coast late tonight and Saturday.
Critical Fire Weather Conditions will continue until 5 PM with High wind gusts appear to be over and plan to take down the high wind warning with the afternoon package. Saturday will be a few degrees warmer and less windy as the western U. upper ridge expands eastward.
The highest totals will likely reside in the highest terrain, with drier air eating away at totals at lower elevations. However, given the air temperatures near or above freezing, travel conditions should not be all that impacted.
220 PM MST Fri Dec 8 2017 Strong upper ridging persists across the western CONUS with deep upper trough across the eastern half of the country. Upper ridging over the next several days will move very little.
An upper-level ridge is in place over Northeast Montana, and this ridge will amplify through Friday as heights increase.
Thursday: Models show likelihood of diurnal showers and storms with upper high overhead. Convection should wane through the evening hours and perhaps linger into the overnight across and near the higher terrain. Friday: Upper high continues across the western half of the US. NAM has adequate moisture for diurnal showers and storms, mainly across the higher terrain and adjacent ground, but shows some drier air circulating in from the north across the I-25 corridor and plains, so coverage of rain will tend to be less.
Models support continued amplification of upper ridge over the West, ushering in moisture from the Southwest Monsoon over the next several days.
320 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017 SE Texas will be on the edge of a building upper level ridge. The axis of the ridge will be just north of the area but over the next several days, a weakness in the ridge will develop as trough develops into the lower MS Valley and an inverted trough moves across the Gulf of Mexico into the Upper TX coast. A consensus of model solutions show the ridge redeveloping overhead over the last part of the upcoming week. By this afternoon, the model forecast soundings had an inverted V profile in the lowest 850 mb, indicating the potential for gusty winds in the stronger storms. With the ridge slightly stronger and PWs a bit lower, am expecting less coverage of showers and thunderstorms on Friday.
a cold front will be dropping south across MO towards AR.
The ridge of high pressure will build back into the Great Basin by this weekend, supporting well above normal temperatures and a possible return of monsoon moisture. On Friday an upper high over the four corners area will expand and shift to the west.
Convective complexes shift southward into the area today, ahead of a cold front that crosses Friday into Friday night. High pressure brings less humid weather for the weekend. The area remains under a weakening high pressure ridge ahead of an approaching slow cold front. A cold front will push through on Friday with widespread showers and thunderstorms. PWATs pool up around 2 inches ahead of the cold front, indicating heavy rain potential as well.
209 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Rain chances will continue, and escalate into Friday as a cold front slides toward the Upper Ohio Valley Region. In fact, if the next wave is held up by the weak ridging behind this morning's energy, it could be after dark until convection reappears. Building high pressure will return dry weather Fri night. An approaching trough will return low shower/storm chances for Mon before a large upper high drifts E from the Plains and Midwest. east of the ridges by late morning.
604 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Update A cold front will move through the area this morning ending the threat of thunderstorms by mid morning. It will still be warm today with highs in the mid 80s but it will be much cooler Friday with highs only in the 70s.
303 AM PDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Slightly warmer weather will develop by this weekend, along with a return of precipitation chances for the mountains and deserts. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO At 2 am PDT, water vapor satellite imagery displayed a weak upper-level ridge over central Arizona, and upper-level troughing over the Pacific Northwest. The aforementioned ridge will move north and build slightly through the end of the week. The transition of the ridge further north will help create southeasterly flow aloft, increasing atmospheric moisture over the region.
Weak low pressure and cold front are exiting the area. Highs should reach the upper 70s over most of the area, turning cooler near the lake.
339 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Low pressure will track along a stalled front over southern New England today bringing damp and much cooler weather to our area.
An approaching cold front will spike the moisture pool overhead into the weekend greater TS intensity and coverage through the weekend and make the low level winds a little shifty for the mornings to come Fri and especially on Sat. As we go through the night, should see this high cloud cover continue to thin which should allow overnight min temps to be reached towards sunrise Thu morning.
With all short term and the high res models in pretty good agreement, a blend of forecast models will be used. Broad upper level high pressure will continue to dominate through the forecast period with an extensive cumulus field having already developed this afternoon. The ridge will move back over the central rockies overnight and into Friday. Low pressure / upper trough moving across the northern tier of the nation will push a weak cold front into central sections of the state Friday afternoon where it will wash out or stall depending upon which model you believe.
A cold front is currently shifting across the area, and with its passage comes an end to threat for active thunderstorms and heavy rain.
A cold front will push into Western NY on Friday. Remain under an East Coast upper level trough for the period.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): Mid-level inverted trough will continue to move westward across Mexico through the period, while broad mid-level ridging builds south across the state. At the surface, broad high pressure will prevail across the Gulf of Mexico.
349 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Upper ridging has shifted and is now located over the Atlantic coast and also over the desert southwest. A weak upper trough axis is now oriented sw-ne across nrn MS and across the mid state. Still expecting a cold front to drop southward toward the area on Friday.
The ridge of high pressure will build back into the Great Basin on Friday and persist into the weekend, supporting well above normal temperatures and a possible return of monsoon moisture. On Friday an upper high over the four corners area will expand and shift to the west.
A warming trend is expected Friday into the weekend as an upper ridge over the Four Corners builds westward.
The enhanced clouds and showers should help in keeping afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s, although localized warmer highs are still possible.
The short term progs continue to depict weak but dirty H700-500 ridging centered just off the LA coast this morning drifting NW today towards the extreme SE TX coast, with H850-700 winds no longer conducive for seabreeze convection to push inland after 18Z.
423 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Rain chances will continue, and escalate into Friday as a cold front slides toward the Upper Ohio Valley Region. In fact, if the next wave is held up by the weak ridging behind this morning's energy, it could be after dark until convection reappears. Building high pressure will return dry weather Fri night. An approaching trough will return low shower/storm chances for Mon before a large upper high drifts E from the Plains and Midwest. east of the ridges by late morning.
For Fri through Mon an upper level ridge will remain over the area and centered mostly over UT. Will go with high pcpn chances acrs the mtn areas and generally scattered coverage over the lower elevations. Tue and Wed the upper level ridge is expected to be centered to the east of CO, allowing a plume of monsoon mstr to work its way into western CO on the back side of the ridge.
256 AM MDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Monsoonal moisture should be cut off from the CWA over the next few days as the upper high strengthens some over Wyoming today through Friday.
High pressure will continue to build into the region for Friday and into the weekend with heights peaking at around 596 dam during this period. However, residual moisture will be recycled each afternoon as conditions never fully dry out under the ridge. As a result, diurnal showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through the weekend with the higher elevations favored for convection.
A deep-layer ridge will be the dominant weather feature across much of the Southeast. With the building ridge aloft and overall decrease in clouds, we expect high temperatures to reach the mid 90s away from the beaches.
In the wake of this disturbance, high pressure will build across the region for the weekend. A mid level ridge extends from AZ north into the nrn Rockies early this morning. A weak disturbance embedded in the ridge sits e-w across srn UT. Models amplify the ridge over the next 48 hrs with the center shifting over swrn UT by late Fri.
648 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Convective complexes shift southward into the area today, ahead of a cold front that crosses Friday into Friday night. High pressure brings less humid weather for the weekend. The area remains under a weakening high pressure ridge ahead of an approaching slow cold front. A cold front will push through on Friday with widespread showers and thunderstorms. PWATs pool up around 2 inches ahead of the cold front, indicating heavy rain potential as well.
308 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Wx map shows similar conditions the last few days, the surface Bermuda high ridging westward across the Gulf, providing a light south to southeast flow across the region. High pressure aloft covers most of the Midwest into the Gulf states region.
354 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Convective complexes shift southward into the area today, ahead of a cold front that crosses Friday into Friday night. High pressure brings less humid weather for the weekend. The area remains under a weakening high pressure ridge ahead of an approaching slow cold front. A cold front will push through on Friday with widespread showers and thunderstorms. PWATs pool up around 2 inches ahead of the cold front, indicating heavy rain potential as well.
423 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017 The upper level low seen on water vapor loop spinning over northwest Ontario will keep the Northland in a fall-like weather pattern today. A couple more vorticity maxima will rotate through the low trough and provide some more showers today, mostly in the MN Arrowhead and far northwest Wisconsin. High pressure will build into the region tonight with the upper low moving across Lake Superior. the subsidence with the high will bringing clearing skies from the west. Have slowed down clearing form previous forecasts based on the slower retreat of the upper low. With the high pressure over the region Friday, expect sunshine and warmer temperatures.
A second area of thunderstorms will likely form this evening most likely after sunset north of the front as the low level jet increases convergence north of the frontal boundary. The upper ridge axis over the Rockies will strengthen and expand east into the Central Plains Friday into the weekend and beyond.
This does not look like a sure thing, as developing east to southeast winds will be holding the low level moisture in, and morning sunshine should allow for a bit more heating than was earlier expected. Even if storms form over the foothills, they should drift south or southwest, which will reduce the threat for the lower foothills, Denver, and points northward.
539 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Rain chances will continue, and escalate into Friday as a cold front slides toward the Upper Ohio Valley Region. In fact, if the next wave is held up by the weak ridging behind this morning's energy, it could be after dark until convection reappears. Building high pressure will return dry weather Fri night. An approaching trough will return low shower/storm chances for Mon before a large upper high drifts E from the Plains and Midwest. largely east of the ridges by noon.
Upper ridging has shifted and is now located over the Atlantic coast and also over the desert southwest. A weak upper trough axis is now oriented sw-ne across nrn MS and across the mid state. Still expecting a cold front to drop southward toward the area on Friday.
The mid level ridge aloft will strengthen northeast of the area overnight with low level ESE winds around 15 knots at 925 mbs. Mid-level anticyclone offshore SC/GA coast Fri will move to/near the central FL peninsula Sat/Sun.
250 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Cold front had moved south of the forecast area and at 07Z was located across northern Missouri into northeast and north central Kansas. Upper high over the western conus expands into the lower Missouri Valley also during this time.
Should see lows mainly in the 60s(F) tonight with the lower 70s(F) still possible in south central Kansas. Upper high will be centered in Colorado on Friday, which will allow for the cooler N/NE flow, and isolated pops were retained for all zones. Still expecting the upper anticyclone to recenter over Nevada, Utah and the Great Basin over the weekend.
An area of low pressure will track east along the Pennsylvania, New York border tomorrow into Friday. Following this passage of this low pressure center, mainly dry and slightly cooler weather will arrive for the weekend. It will be muggy and warm again, with lows ranging from the mid 60s north to the lower to middle 70s southeast. However have not put out an excessive heat advisory due to the low temperatures still being to low and tomorrow's Heat indices being marginal. trough in response to strengthening upper level ridge centered over the Four Corners states.
Tonight Low Pressure will track across Central Lakes late tonight dragging a cold front across the forecast area. We remain in the warm sector with the warm front stretching across the Central Lakes with a series of lows tracking along the boundary. Low pressure over Lake Huron will track near the thumb of Michigan this evening. The low forecast to reach lake Ontario by daybreak Friday. The low will drag the boundary now north of us south as a cold front. This will finally give a quick break to the convection and usher in some drier and cooler conditions.
Warming temperatures expected through Friday as high pressure remains, with the valleys look to see temperatures at or just above the century mark. This nearby ridge will again bring some monsoonal moisture across the area this afternoon.
333 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017 (Today and Tonight) A nearly stationary upper low near the Big Bend early this morning will bring isolated showers and thunderstorms along the I-10 corridor today, and scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight over Crockett, Sutton, and Schleicher counties. Otherwise hot and dry conditions are expected across the rest of West Central Texas today and tonight, with upper level high pressure bringing subsidence conditions. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 90s with lows tonight in the lower 70s. Highs pressure aloft will continue to dominate; although, the high will shift slightly west.
A muggy airmass will remain with not much overnight relief as lows will only drop into the low to mid 70s. A surface analysis shows temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s and with dewpoints in the lower 70s, heat index values so far are running 95 to 100, highest along and west of I-65. Plan on a mild and muggy overnight with lows in the lower/middle 70s. Given the high amounts of instability and moisture in place, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are the main threats. Overall, better consensus in a dry forecast for the weekend with slightly less humid airmass moving in thanks to upper level troughing developing over the Great Lakes.
118 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Rain chances will continue, and escalate into Friday as a cold front slides toward the Upper Ohio Valley Region. In fact, if the next wave is held up by the weak ridging behind this morning's energy, it could be after dark until convection reappears. Building high pressure will return dry weather Fri night. An approaching trough will return low shower/storm chances for Mon before a large upper high drifts E from the Plains and Midwest.
309 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2017 Weak cold front passes today.
1017 AM MST Wed Nov 29 2017 An upper level ridge will be over the area this morning, but then this afternoon and evening an upper level disturbance will be moving eastward across southern CO. Most of the lower elevations should see overnight lows in the 20s, but the lower portions of the San Luis Valley should see lows in the teens.
349 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2017 An area of low pressure will move east across southern Canada this evening and Thursday. Its cold front will move across the Northland overnight, bringing a strong winds during the wee hours of the morning through the morning. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies and highs in the lower to middle 30s.
Temps will be near normal in the wake of last night's cold front. A fast-moving upper trough and attendant cold front in central Idaho will continue to push east of the area this morning. West winds to 25 mph in the Western Magic Valley will weaken by this afternoon as high pressure builds into southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho.
1230 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2017 A cold front moves across the area today, followed by high pressure through Thursday.