Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A 250 MB UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL REACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT. BUT THE HIGH CAPE AXIS IS STILL NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT.
316 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE WRN USA TROF WILL DEEPEN THIS WEEKEND WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES MON-TUE. AS THIS LOW HEADS FOR HUDSON BAY WED-THU. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL RETROGRADE INTO THE SW USA WITH A TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE E. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL THRU TUE AND THEN TURN A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL. IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN JUST A BIT BELOW 30 KTS AND THUS WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAF.
128 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PREDOMINANTLY FAIR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN KANSAS EARLY THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THIS COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO AROUND 105. THE HIGHER VALUES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL ROUGHLY BE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183. A COLD FRONT/SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
131 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015 ISOLATED STORMS MAY POSSIBLY OVERRUN AN OLD WARM FRONTAL (SECTOR) BOUNDARY THAT IS DRAPED JUST TO THE SOUTH/WEST OF THE PAH FA. OTHERWISE THE SYNOPTIC SCALE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN WILL BE TO RIDGE THE UPPER HIGH INTO/ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY WITH TIME. BUT LITTLE MORE THAN SLGT CHANCE MENTIONABLE POPS IS ANTICIPATED MAINLY FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN OR WESTERN COUNTIES ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. THE BROADER EFFECT OF THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE DOME ALOFT WILL BE TO GRADUALLY DRIVE TEMPS/HUMIDITY UPWARDS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BUT THE ONE WE'RE IN SEEMS A BIT DIFFERENT AS THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN RIGHT ON THE PERIPHERY OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INSTEAD OF EMBEDDED IN IT.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WILL TRACK SLOWLY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE VA BORDER COUNTIES AND LOW 70S ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL BE COURTESY OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AND THE TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE.
328 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015 A WEATHER PATTERN FEATURING HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR A STRONG INFLUX OF MONSOON MOISTURE. SAT NIGHT AND SUN THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER TX WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING MOSTLY WESTERN CO AND LEAVING EASTERN UT RELATIVELY DRY. THIS WILL PUSH THE HIGH CENTER EAST TO ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI. AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NW U.
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. /ISSUED 401 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015/ KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AGAIN TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND EXPAND FURTHER INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION FROM W CNTRL TX.
653 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
400 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY.
553 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH TONIGHT. CHANGES COMING OVERNIGHT AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN LOWERING CLOUDS HEIGHTS TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS AN AREA OF CLOUDS BETWEEN 6-10KFT CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO NORTHERN LOWER ALONG A WEAKENING WARM FRONTAL SURFACE. AND POSSIBLY SAGINAW VALLEY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES THE FRONT TO THE NE. THE LL THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF AN COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS ELEVATED TONIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
/ISSUED 355 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RE-ESTABLISH. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED SOUTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL CHANGE BY SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE PANHANDLE SATURDAY. WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN EASTERN MONTANA WITH LOW LEVEL/SFC TO 850MB SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING.
WITH A DECENT RIDGE EAST OF THE AREA WE SHOULD MANAGE ANOTHER DAY WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO OUR FLOW. THE FLOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SPREADS FURTHER WEST WITH THE WESTERN FLANK WARMING MID LEVELS A DEGREE OR TWO SATURDAY.
348 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015 UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NWRN TX TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAX TEMPS TODAY JUST A COUPLE DEGF COOLER MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER N TX WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
651 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 WEAK/MOISTURE-STARVED WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY LIFT NE THRU OUR CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS NE OF OUR CWA BY MIDDAY OR SO. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT AND IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. UPSTREAM COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, IS A PRETTY TYPICAL COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES ENDING UP IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT.
THE MAIN FOCUS REMAINS THE HIGHLANDS ALTHOUGH THE SAWTOOTHS AND AROUND BEAR LAKE MAY SEE LESS STORM COVERAGE.
410 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
THERE IS AN AREA OF CLOUDS BETWEEN 6-10KFT CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO NORTHERN LOWER ALONG A WEAKENING WARM FRONTAL SURFACE. AND POSSIBLY SAGINAW VALLEY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES THE FRONT TO THE NE. THE LL THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF AN COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS ELEVATED TONIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
1105 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2015 WV IMAGERY SHOWING TROF RIDGE TROF FROM W TO E ACROSS THE CONUS. SFC HAS LOW P OVR THE NERN CORNER OF WY WITH WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED ROUGHLY ALONG THE BORDER BETWEEN WY AND MT AND A MINOR TROF LAYING JUST TO THE SOUTH. UPR LV SWRLY FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SW TROF MOVING NEAR OR OVR NWRN WY W/ MODEST BUT DECREASING MID LVL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE STATE. UPR RIDGING BEGINNING WITH DECREASING MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE FA.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY INTO THE MID 80S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH ON SATURDAY.
Storms are expected to develop this afternoon across the higher terrain and should remain west and south of the terminals. The better rain chances will be confined to the higher terrain and Big Bend region where there is better theta-e air and E/SE upslope flow. Friday evening another front will push south in response to a deepening upper trough across the Upper Midwest.
THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN REMAINS QUITE PROGRESSIVE WITH A PAIR OF TROUGHS AND RIDGES MIGRATING ACROSS THE CONUS OR CANADA OVER THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.
THEREFORE FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SE NEARER THE TN/VA BORDERS. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LULL IN THE PRECIP AHEAD OF SECOND COLD FRONT. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE AMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING SE THROUGH OUR AREA.
THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A MORE VIGOROUS UPPER TROF WHICH WILL VENTURE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A RAPID UPGROWTH OF CONVECTION. THE STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING FRIDAY MORNING.
Flow in the low levels remains weak, but improves aloft and increases wind shear.
817 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND DOMINATE OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.
The period starts out with isolated showers and thunderstorms over the southeast sections of the CWA due to a departing H5 trough. The rest of the day should be dry with slightly cooler temperatures than the last few days.
1029 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY THEN MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
SLOWLY FALLING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES TODAY (FIRST ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES THIS MORNING THEN FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON). AS THE COOLER AIR DEEPENS TONIGHT THE CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO BETWEEN PLUS 3 AND PLUS 5 C. COOLER TONIGHT THAN ANY TIME RECENTLY WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.
BUT THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IF MODELS COME IN EVEN COOLER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO FAR NE COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY MOVE FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE DENVER AREA BY EARLY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL KEEP A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WHERE A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AMS WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 70S. FOR NOW WL KEEP THE AREA IN THE ZERO CATEGORY AND HEDGE FOR THE STRONGER CAP WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. A DRY NORTHWESTERLY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WEST THIS WEEKEND.
1250 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
A moderately strong cold front will drop southward from SD/MN and encounter a moderately unstable airmass residing over KS and MO where operational models show MLCAPES in excess of 2000J/kg this afternoon.
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CANADA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. CYCLONIC NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION AS UPPER TROF DEEPENS OVER GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TONIGHT.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 83 67 85 65 / 70 30 20 40 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 79 65 83 63 / 80 30 20 50 OAK RIDGE, TN 79 65 82 63 / 80 40 20 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 77 62 82 61 / 80 50 20 60.
AND A SUBTLE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALL CONTRIBUTING TO LIGHT/ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL MAINTAIN COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. LIGHT PRECIPITATION REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
1046 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY SETTLE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL ALSO MOVE OFF AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY TRACKS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. A NARROW WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN DEVELOPING A DEEP TROUGH. WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OF PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE ILN CWA ON FRIDAY.
A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH AND THE 850 MB MOISTURE AXIS AND TRANSPORT IS RIGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPLYING A FEW SHORT WAVES WITH ASSOCIATED FAVORABLE DIFFERENTIAL VORT ADVECTION. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL SWITCH WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO TNT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND THE AIRMASS HAS PWS UP TO 1. DEEP LAYER TROUGHING WILL STEADILY PROGRESS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE TAIL END OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM EAST TEXAS EXTENDING WEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TODAY. A MODEST UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND NOSING DOWN INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
/ISSUED 647 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER ARKANSAS THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG IN SOME AREAS. A COLD FRONT IS ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS IN THE PLAINS. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH ARKANSAS BY FRIDAY MORNING.
A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY SHOULD ALLOW A FRONT TO APPROACH NORTH GA BY AFTERNOON. THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN STATES SHOULD PUSH THIS FRONT INTO CENTRAL GA BY FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AFTER 06Z. THEN A COLD FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND PERHAPS A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TODAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH READINGS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT AND A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA.
912 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 FROM SATELLITE INTERROGATION WE FIND A TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE TRAVELING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE KEYS AREA THIS MORNING. THE CULPRIT FOR OUR NEARLY STATIC WEATHER PATTERN IS AN LOW TO MID LEVEL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS A BIT DIFFLUENT. THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL PLAY A MINOR ROLE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS SLOW MOVING TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DIG ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
1218 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL INITIATE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE A SLOWER SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION. THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A MORE VIGOROUS UPPER TROF WHICH WILL VENTURE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A RAPID UPGROWTH OF CONVECTION. THE STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING FRIDAY MORNING.
/ISSUED 351 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2015/ (Today and Tonight) Our area will be under weak north to northwest flow aloft today and tonight, with an upper ridge from the Great Basin into northern Mexico, and an upper trough digging southeast into the upper Midwest. Highs today are expected to be mostly in the lower 90s, with weak winds. (Friday through Thursday) Stronger cold front still set to settle across West Central Texas on Friday, shifting winds around to the northeast.
1120 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.
704 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TO SOUTHERN OHIO WILL DRIFT SOUTH TODAY AND DISSIPATE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO WILL DRIFT GRADUALLY EAST INTO NEW YORK TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION WITH A DRIER NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MUCH OF THE HIGH AND MID CLOUDS NOW CONFINED TO EAST OHIO AND EASTWARD WITH CONTINUED MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A LESS HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THE ONLY MINOR FORECAST CONCERN IS A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A BROAD TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY DIGGING DOWN INTO TEXAS WITH THE RIDGE RETREATING TO THE WEST. A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LUFKIN TO UVALDE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ACROSS TEXAS AND FORCE THE RIDGE FARTHER TO THE WEST DURING THIS PERIOD. THE SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY.
HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE STATE. SLIGHT COOLING IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND EXPECTED AREA-WIDE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. HOWEVER THE RETURNED MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST COOLER TODAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS. THE PRESENCE OF THIS COOLER MARINE AIR WILL DEFINITELY KEEP NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS COOLER TODAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY FOR ADDITIONAL COOLING AT THE COAST AND SLIGHT COOLING INLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST AND BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE ENTIRE DISTRICT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH READINGS ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN DECIDEDLY ANTI-CYCLONIC AS A 500-MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BUILDS EASTWARD. THE AIR MASS WILL WARM AS A RESULT AND THUS TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY. COOLER TO FINISH.
802 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY FRIDAY MORNING AS NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION AND A DEEP TROUGH PLUNGES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL USHER A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS SINK INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
647 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER ARKANSAS THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG IN SOME AREAS. A COLD FRONT IS ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS IN THE PLAINS. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH ARKANSAS BY FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AND THE AIR MASS WILL TREND WARMER AND REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER THE COLD FRONT JUST OFF THE SURFACE IS STILL PUSHING THROUGH OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES AS EVIDENCED BY THE RAP13 925-850MB WINDS. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER DOWN TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL WIND AXIS OFF THE SURFACE TURNS FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST IN THAT AREA. AS A SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH.
814 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 SOME SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DIRECTLY OVER FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL SLOWLY GET SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARDS TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINING DIRECTLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. 7C AND MODELS SHOW SOME SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROUGH INTO THE FL PENINSULA.
HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE STATE. SLIGHT COOLING IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND EXPECTED AREA-WIDE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. THE PRESENCE OF THIS COOLER MARINE AIR WILL DEFINITELY KEEP NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS COOLER TODAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY FOR ADDITIONAL COOLING AT THE COAST AND SLIGHT COOLING INLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST AND BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE ENTIRE DISTRICT.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS DOWN THROUGH NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING WEST OF THIS AXIS.
HOT HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW.
CLEAR DRY AND WARMER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SITUATED IN NEVADA.
TURNING BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER FOR FRIDAY. WITH UPR TROFS OCCASIONALLY DEEPENING SWD TO LOWER LATITUDES. AND FRIDAY MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVG ACRS THE AREA WL COMBINE WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SWD ACRS THE REGION TO GENERATE PCPN TDA INTO THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE RGN SHOULD LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN PCPN AGAIN THIS AFTN. DIURNAL INSTABILITY UNDER DEEP/SHARP UPR TROF SHOULD RESULT IN MORE NUMEROUS SHRA AGAIN FRI AFTN.
COLD FRONT LURKING OVER NORTHEASTERN CO DURING THE DAY WILL SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. AS A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO NE AND THE DAKOTAS. WILL LIKELY BE SPOTTY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A 2-3K FOOT SATURATED LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S. A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING AND BRING INCREASING CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AFTER 06Z. THEN A COLD FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND PERHAPS A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TODAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH READINGS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT AND A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TSTM PROSPECTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO PUSH THRU THE AREA DURG THIS SAME TIME FRAME. AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS COURTESY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. THOSE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH NASHVILLE AND IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE PLATEAU. UPPER TROUGH AXIS DOWN THROUGH NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING WEST OF THIS AXIS.
Light south to southwest winds and high cloud cover can be expected today, with temperatures warming into the low to mid 80s by this afternoon. A cold front currently located across the Great Lakes and northern Plains will sharpen and accelerate south this evening into tonight, and pass through the forecast area from north to south during the overnight hours into Friday morning. The front should clear the area by mid day Friday, with a much cooler and drier airmass quickly building into the area. Right now, it appears that highs on Friday may only reach the low to perhaps mid 70s, with dewpoints quickly falling into the low 50s by afternoon.