Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1104 AM MDT Tue Mar 22 2022 07z surface analysis had low over central OK with trough north into central MB. Water vapour loop showed upper low over central SK/MB border and another over central KS, both embedded in large scale upper trough. Wednesday, upper trough remains east of the CWA as dry gusty northwest winds continue per gradient/deep boundary layer mixing.
(This evening through Wednesday) Breezy north winds will continue through the early evening hours behind the cold front with occasional gusts exceeding 55 mph across western OK. Wind chills will drop below freezing area wide. Light rain/drizzle may return to northern and central OK later this afternoon with just enough moisture wrapping around the back side of the mid level cyclone. Skies should clear by sunrise as the aforementioned exits NE and a few temperatures may drop to just below freezing across northern OK.
As of early this afternoon, most of the the severe/deeper convection is present along and south of a warm front that is draped from west central Alabama into north central Mississippi. Dewpoints should be able to climb into the lower 60s, with some appreciable SBCAPE to tap into.
316 PM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022 Warm front pushes north tonight. Showers ahead of cold front arrive overnight tonight. Cold front crosses Wednesday evening.
Consequently, Wednesday will only be a few degrees warmer with afternoon highs in the upper 40s and low 50s. In the later periods an upper level ridge will build across the Rockies and move out into the Plains. This will result in dry and warmer conditions across southwest Kansas.
251 PM MDT Tue Mar 22 2022 High pressure building into the region will maintain mild and dry weather through Wednesday.
CMiller (Issued 413 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022) Today through Wednesday: Low pressure over Oklahoma will track across southern WI Wednesday into Wednesday night. The deeper moisture will persist west of Madison, more in line with the inverted trough and upper low. Another period of showers should fill in from the southeast as the upper low retrogrades into western WI and eastern MN Wed afternoon.
Stay weather aware over the next few hours as the threat winds down across the Mid South as we transition to cooler and drier conditions for the rest of the week.
1218 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022 (Today and Tonight) Early this morning, a surface cold front was moving southeast across the area. Temperatures will also be much cooler behind the front, with afternoon highs ranging from the mid and upper 50s across the Big Country, to the mid 60s along the I-10 corridor.
149 PM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022 High pressure will build south into the region and provide fair weather today.
1201 PM MDT Tue Mar 22 2022 Satellite imagery shows the backside of a deep 500mb trough slowly pushing into the region this morning. Accumulations still expected to be light with up to an inch or two over the higher elevations and the plains will see little to no accumulation. There will be a few light showers in the high country this morning.
814 AM PDT Tue Mar 22 2022 Drier and warmer weather is on tap for Tuesday and Wednesday with Wednesday being the warmest day of the week.
Early this morning, a deep upper level low was over the southern Plains, with extensive convection from east Texas to the lower Ohio and mid Mississippi Valley regions. Through the course of the day, the models lift the low north, northeast over the central Plains and Missouri Valley. As deeper moisture moves east tonight, we will transition to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms wrapping around the upper low.
355 PM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022 Showers will continue tonight in the moist flow ahead of low pressure tracking to Lake Michigan. Showers and thunderstorms are expected again on Wednesday as the low moves slowly northeast.
216 PM MDT Tue Mar 22 2022 Main upper trough is located over the eastern Dakotas/Nebraska this afternoon, extending between a low pressure center over Manitoba to another low center over eastern Nebraska/Kansas. An upper ridge will begin to build toward the area from the west on Wednesday.
Upper ridge begins to slide eastward tomorrow, bringing dry but cooler weather to the area. Highs in the 30s will be followed by Wednesday night lows well into the twenties as cooler airmass settles into place.
As the low level jet moves east and dry slot moves in aloft, the widespread showers will become more scattered over western locales overnight and toward morning. Look for afternoon highs in the lower to middle 60s if the sun came come out long enough. Shower chances will linger into Wednesday night as the expansive upper trough stretches out from the eastern Great Lakes to eastern Texas. However, temperatures, will be colder, in the wake of the occluded front, with overnight lows in the lower 40s. Additional storm total rainfall will be a half an inch to near an inch and a half with the highest amounts expected over the Wabash Valley.
Clouds will decrease today as an upper ridge along the coast builds inland. Highs will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday, reaching a couple degrees above normal.
Gusty north winds and boating impacts will linger today along the Colorado River Valley then a strong ridge will build over the western states providing tranquil weather and potentially record breaking temperatures by the weekend. High pressure begins to build in later this week, leading to a notable warming trend and lighter winds.
Wind speeds are bumping right up to High Wind Warning criteria across mainly the eastern sections of the forecast area and are coming close elsewhere across the area this afternoon in the strong pressure gradient on the back side of the low as it moves out across eastern Kansas and western Missouri. The upper ridge that had been over the western U.
High pressure over the region continues to provide dry weather. A few clouds are spilling over the top of the ridge but not resulting in much impacts. In fact, the 50th percentile for Wednesday highs is 5 to 8 degrees warmer across the Snake Plain into the Magic Valley. The lack of a significant trough should allow even stronger warming. High pressure strong enough to keep clouds in the FEW- SCT range.
Deep and nearly vertically stacked low pressure near the Kansas/Oklahoma border will lift NE toward the Upper Mississippi Valley today. The occluded/cold fronts should be on our doorstep off to the NW/W around 12z, and the cold front will sweep across the area during the day. Low-level theta-e advection continues ahead of the cold front, and very modest destabilization could occur. CAA in the wake of the cold front does steepen lapse rates considerably through the afternoon.
1041 AM MDT Tue Mar 22 2022 Satellite imagery shows the backside of a deep 500mb trough slowly pushing into the region this morning. Accumulations still expected to be light with up to an inch or two over the higher elevations and the plains will see little to no accumulation. There will be a few light showers in the high country this morning.
1025 AM PDT Tue Mar 22 2022 Drier and warmer weather is on tap for Tuesday and Wednesday with Wednesday being the warmest day of the week.
310 PM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022 High pressure will continue to dominate into Wednesday with breezy southeasterly flow today becoming more south to southwest on Wednesday as a cold front approaches from the west. During Wednesday the convection associated with the cold front will approach the coastal waters into the northern Nature Coast, but further south the wind shift to southwest along with enough moisture will develop a few afternoon showers and possibly a thunderstorm over the mainly the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula.
Main surface cold front continues to be west of MS River Valley Region.
A cold front will enter western AR this afternoon and push eastward through the TAF period with southeast winds becoming southwest then westward. the parent upper low will remain slowly meandering over the central CONUS. Temps will also remain cooler through the short term than in previous days. temps may be cold enough Wed night to see some wintry precip mix with rain in the higher terrain of the Ozarks.
316 PM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022 Beautiful day outside with temps currently in the low 70s across much of the area, expecting these temps to climb into the mid 70s to round out the rest of the day.
However, the event is far from over as a second wave is currently rounding the base of the main trough. To add on with the highly sheared environment, streamwise storm relative helicity begin ingested into any supercells would help overcome any weak low level instability issues.
305 PM MDT Tue Mar 22 2022 Highly amplified pattern remains in place today with deep trough moving into the Eastern CONUS and an upstream ridge slowly building in from the EPac. Precipitation reaching the ground however remains limited mainly to the higher terrain though some trace amounts not out of the question in some of the adjacent valleys through sunset. The stronger core of winds shift East of the divide tomorrow and we will see a let up of the winds in the lower elevations.
557 PM MDT Tue Mar 22 2022 Highly amplified pattern remains in place today with deep trough moving into the Eastern CONUS and an upstream ridge slowly building in from the EPac. Precipitation reaching the ground however remains limited mainly to the higher terrain though some trace amounts not out of the question in some of the adjacent valleys through sunset. The stronger core of winds shift East of the divide tomorrow and we will see a let up of the winds in the lower elevations.
516 PM MDT Tue Mar 22 2022 Main upper trough is located over the eastern Dakotas/Nebraska this afternoon, extending between a low pressure center over Manitoba to another low center over eastern Nebraska/Kansas. An upper ridge will begin to build toward the area from the west on Wednesday.
Regarding headlines, the high wind warning still looks to be in good shape. Combine those two bits of info and I am confident that at least the higher elevations are seeing warning criteria winds. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 73 43 62 43 / 100 50 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 77 46 63 43 / 80 80 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 58 75 43 62 42 / 80 70 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 75 47 63 40 / 60 90 30 20 10 TN.
The highest rainfall total was a tenth of an inch over the Middle Keys. However, mainly fair weather was observed over the Lower Keys over the last 10 hours. Breezes will begin to slacken on Wednesday as the high slowly slides east of the Keys.
The gusty winds are bringing some blowing dust southward from the lower Trans Pecos region into the Rio Grande and southern Edwards Plateau region. Some mid and high level clouds will move across the region during the overnight into tomorrow as an upper level trough remains across Texas.
850 PM MDT Tue Mar 22 2022 High pressure building into the region will maintain mild and dry weather through Wednesday.
633 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022 Line of storms are well to the east as drier and cooler air continues to filter in this evening.
Meanwhile, high pressure look to settle over the region bringing potential for fry weather and unseasonably warm temperatures for the rest of the week. Light showers that could dust the high mountains of northern Elko county still remain a possibility this afternoon. Beyond this potential dusting, weather looks to stick to the drier side as high pressure builds and models see a more zonal flow takeover for tomorrow.
948 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022 The frontal boundary attendant to a robust upper trough (now entering Missouri) just exited our far eastern zones at around 9:00PM CDT tonight, ushering in a drier and cooler air mass. The strong area of low pressure that the frontal boundary is attached to will shift east, entering Missouri, and help to usher in strong westerly winds through the rest of the period.
The greatest threat will remain across the southern-third of the state where the highest surface based instability values are expected.
Vertically stacked low pressure is centered over northeast Kansas and far southwestern Iowa this afternoon. A warm front extends eastward from the low across northern Missouri into central Illinois. Temperatures at 2 PM were generally in the lower to mid 50s. Cooler air will spread into the area for Wednesday. This will result in multiple pieces of vorticity rotating around the low to interact with low level moisture across the region to produce periods of scattered showers today transitioning to light rain and drizzle tonight and continuing into Wednesday.
756 PM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022 Showers will continue tonight in the moist flow ahead of low pressure tracking to Lake Michigan. Showers and thunderstorms are expected again on Wednesday as the low moves slowly northeast.
Main upper trough is located over the eastern Dakotas/Nebraska this afternoon, extending between a low pressure center over Manitoba to another low center over eastern Nebraska/Kansas. An upper ridge will begin to build toward the area from the west on Wednesday.
----BMickelson Previous discussion: The dry conditions are expected to continue for the foreseeable future as a semi-permanent upper ridge will be in place over the western states through the weekend.
207 PM PDT Tue Mar 22 2022 A major warming trend is forecast to occur across the forecast area over the next few days as high pressure builds.
Mainly dry weather through tonight with ridging building into the area.
824 PM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022 Mostly cloudy and seasonably mild conditions are expected for through tonight as low pressure heads north-northeast from the Mid Miss Valley to the Chicago area.
A sharp upper ridge will continue to build into the Pacific Northwest overnight, maintaining mostly clear conditions and light winds.
Temperatures should be a little cooler than today with the continued cloud cover.
607 PM MDT Tue Mar 22 2022 The High Wind Warning has been allowed to expire due to the winds gusting below the 58 mph threshold. Wind speeds are bumping right up to High Wind Warning criteria across mainly the eastern sections of the forecast area and are coming close elsewhere across the area this afternoon in the strong pressure gradient on the back side of the low as it moves out across eastern Kansas and western Missouri. The upper ridge that had been over the western U.
Any accumulations are expected to be minimal over the higher terrain with up to a trace over the adjacent plains. The amplified upper level trough slowly exits the region Wednesday. Temperatures warm aloft gradually as a ridge builds in, so expect high temperatures in the 50s over the plains, 40s in the foothills, and 30s in the mountains. High pressure will build in across the region continuing into the weekend with upper level flow turning northwesterly.
A mix of FEW-BKN250 clouds expected tomorrow, but high pressure should keep most clouds away.
610 PM MDT Tue Mar 22 2022 The High Wind Warning has been allowed to expire due to the winds gusting below the 58 mph threshold. Wind speeds are bumping right up to High Wind Warning criteria across mainly the eastern sections of the forecast area and are coming close elsewhere across the area this afternoon in the strong pressure gradient on the back side of the low as it moves out across eastern Kansas and western Missouri. The upper ridge that had been over the western U.
/issued 633 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022/ Line of storms are well to the east as drier and cooler air continues to filter in this evening.
Another stronger lobe of energy will rotate around the west side of the upper low Wednesday morning. -KT Key Messages: 1) A strong ridge of high pressure will begin building over the area, bringing low precipitation chances and above average temperatures.
222 PM PDT Tue Mar 22 2022 Updated the Watch/Warning/Advisory section Building high pressure aloft and offshore flow will bring Santa Ana conditions over Southern California for the next few days with well above average temperatures and areas of gusty easterly winds.
634 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022 (This evening through Wednesday) Breezy north winds will continue through the early evening hours behind the cold front with occasional gusts exceeding 55 mph across western OK. Wind chills will drop below freezing area wide. Light rain/drizzle may return to northern and central OK later this afternoon with just enough moisture wrapping around the back side of the mid level cyclone. Skies should clear by sunrise as the aforementioned exits NE and a few temperatures may drop to just below freezing across northern OK.
Overall, the forecast of 2-4 inches of storm total rainfall appears on track with the highest amounts likely falling where the convective line stalled out in north central Alabama.
On the heels of the departing upper lvl trough, a trailing 850-700 hpa jet will keep winds elevated and gusty through the afternoon and early evening and continued CAA behind a sfc cold front will only allow highs to peak in the 50s for most locations across the CWA.
However as cooler air filters in tonight and temps continue to decrease, may need to watch for wet surfaces refreezing. Upper ridge begins to slide eastward tomorrow, bringing dry but cooler weather to the area. Highs in the 30s will be followed by Wednesday night lows well into the twenties as cooler airmass settles into place.
The best chance for severe weather is coincident with what counties are outlooked, where sfc temperature will near the low 70s and dew points will be in the 50s.
No change in the thinking on the High Wind Watch. Any accumulations are expected to be minimal over the higher terrain with up to a trace over the adjacent plains. The amplified upper level trough slowly exits the region Wednesday. Temperatures warm aloft gradually as a ridge builds in, so expect high temperatures in the 50s over the plains, 40s in the foothills, and 30s in the mountains. High pressure will build in across the region continuing into the weekend with upper level flow turning northwesterly.
811 PM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022 Early evening satellite imagery is showing a band of thunderstorms pushing east across the central Gulf of Mexico ahead of an approaching cold front.
High pressure building into the region will maintain mild and dry weather through Wednesday.
Overall, the forecast of 2-4 inches of storm total rainfall appears on track with the highest amounts likely falling where the convective line stalled out in north central Alabama. High pressure will build into the area on Thursday, promoting sunny/dry, but cool conditions with highs near the 60 degree mark. A cool, stable air mass will filter into the region as high pressure builds into the region in wake of the cold front late this work week.
MVFR to IFR cigs will continue to overspread the region, expected to eventually lower to IFR at all TAF sites behind a cold front that continues east across the areas. However, the event is far from over as a second wave is currently rounding the base of the main trough. To add on with the highly sheared environment, streamwise storm relative helicity begin ingested into any supercells would help overcome any weak low level instability issues.
238 AM MDT Wed Mar 23 2022 Upper ridge will move through the area today which will bring a warm and dry day over the area. Clouds move in this evening ahead of a cold front. This will keep temperatures warmer over the area tonight. A cold front moves through the area Thursday morning.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) A large, slow-moving upper trough is currently situated across the central US, with northerly flow aloft on the back side. Heights start to increase Thursday as the upper trough drifts eastward and upper level ridging builds to our west.
Overall, a majority of the forecast area received at least a half inch of precipitation, with the highest amounts in southeast Nebraska. Unfortunately, the areas in the higher drought categories did not receive as much precipitation with Albion coming in at 0. In addition to the wind, moisture will continue to wrap around the low leading to good precipitation chances through tomorrow. Locations east of a line from Wayne to Beatrice have the highest chances to see precipitation linger into tomorrow. The highest probability for accumulating snowfall would be in Shelby, Harrison, and Pottawattamie counties. The low temperature forecast for that area is 31 degrees.
1036 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022 (This evening through Wednesday) Breezy north winds will continue through the early evening hours behind the cold front with occasional gusts exceeding 55 mph across western OK. Wind chills will drop below freezing area wide. Light rain/drizzle may return to northern and central OK later this afternoon with just enough moisture wrapping around the back side of the mid level cyclone. Skies should clear by sunrise as the aforementioned exits NE and a few temperatures may drop to just below freezing across northern OK.
Convective potential will occur due to ample moisture in conjunction with lift from the frontal boundary and increasing instability mainly near to south of the warm front. There is also potential for an isolated weak tornado near to south of the warm front where 0-1 SRH values will be greatly enhanced with favorable shear/low lcl heights.
/issued 948 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022/ The frontal boundary attendant to a robust upper trough (now entering Missouri) just exited our far eastern zones at around 9:00PM CDT tonight, ushering in a drier and cooler air mass.
The best chance for severe weather is coincident with what counties are outlooked, where sfc temperature will near the low 70s and dew points will be in the 50s. These may mix with snow in the far eastern ridges of WV. Gradual deterioration to low VFR (MVFR at FKL and DUJ) is expected through daybreak Wednesday as cig decks lower in response to warm, moist advection ahead of approaching low pressure. Restrictions are likely again Fri/Sat with upper troughing.
1117 PM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022 Mostly cloudy and seasonably mild conditions are expected for through tonight as low pressure heads north-northeast from the Mid Miss Valley to the Chicago area.
Wind speeds are bumping right up to High Wind Warning criteria across mainly the eastern sections of the forecast area and are coming close elsewhere across the area this afternoon in the strong pressure gradient on the back side of the low as it moves out across eastern Kansas and western Missouri. The upper ridge that had been over the western U. and Rocky Mountains finally pushes east of the Rockies on Thursday and Thursday night with high pressure also moving in at the surface.
Today through Thursday A highly amplified ridge will fold over the Northern Rockies through the day today and gradually weaken tonight. Isolated rain/snow showers will be possible over far northern portions, as the trough moves over MT.
The Central Plains will be between a ridge to the west and a closed, mid-level low pressure system over Missouri and Iowa on Wednesday.
No change in the thinking on the High Wind Watch. Any accumulations are expected to be minimal over the higher terrain with up to a trace over the adjacent plains. The amplified upper level trough slowly exits the region Wednesday. Temperatures warm aloft gradually as a ridge builds in, so expect high temperatures in the 50s over the plains, 40s in the foothills, and 30s in the mountains. High pressure will build in across the region continuing into the weekend with upper level flow turning northwesterly. Wednesday night into Thursday, winds will gradually diminish across the plans as the trough pushes east and the pressure gradient loosens.