Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cold front has moved passed the KAEX/KBPT/KLCH terminals and will be moving through the KLFT/KARA terminals by 27/14Z.
706 AM EST Wed Nov 27 2019 Latest RAP model runs show deep layer ridging dominating the area with a dry and stable air mass today. A dry cold front traverses the area from north to south over night. High pressure dominates with winds/seas no more than 15 knots/3 feet through Sat.
Will not rule out a few higher gusts than 50 mph, but should mostly stay below the high wind warning criteria of 58 mph.
Its cold front will stretch south to north across the Great Basin and move slowly east today and tonight.
305 AM MST Wed Nov 27 2019 Current surface map places low across southern Wisconsin with weak high pressure across the western Dakotas.
The area of low pressure producing these conditions will continue to elongate through the afternoon and evening to help weaken impactful weather. That being said, models continue to demonstrate the return of snowfall across south- central Idaho by Thursday morning as the low sends another moisture push across the area. The downslope wind is anticipated to warm temperatures a few degrees today, with cooler temperatures expected on Thanksgiving.
/Today through Thanksgiving Day/ Cold front has moved across most of the region this morning, with only three parishes left to clear. Moisture will begin to increase once again from the top down, as srn stream trof moves across the Baja Peninsula towards TX.
12Z KXMR sounding shows very dry air and another hefty inversion in the low-levels. Dirty high pressure ridging remains across the area with ample thin high clouds overhead. An upper ridge across Cuba will retrograde into the southeast Gulf over the next 24 hours. Otherwise some high cloudiness to contend with once again as dirty high pressure ridging exists over the area. Weak high pressure ridging over the area will slide southward over the next 24 hours with the approach of a weak front from the north that may lie across our northern local waters by around daybreak. High pressure combined with light winds will result in poor to fair daytime dispersion today.
The cold temperatures and big waves may result in freezing spray around Flathead Lake. Snow amounts of 2-4 inches are possible over Lookout Pass and through the Lower Clark Fork Region.
Precipitation will end from west-east this evening -- in assoc/w subsidence in the wake of the upper level trough progressing east across the Tri-State area. With weakening winds, clearing skies, and a fresh snowpack, expect chilly lows ranging from near 0 degrees in eastern Colorado to the lower-mid teens east of Highway 283.
728 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2019 Based on surface reports of very light mist, did add patchy freezing drizzle/flurries to DVL, GFK, FAR areas in the mid RRV. A bit more north wind today and thus a bit less low level moisture and think risk of flurries/freezing drizzle while not zero, is quite low due to the lack of lift behind the departing storm system into Wisconsin and Upper Michigan.
GOES-16 satellite trends depict a strong upper level low over Eastern Iowa. Satellite trends and METAR observations show a sharp gradient in dewpoints along and west of the Mississippi River as much drier air aloft filters into the Lower Mississippi Valley this morning. This will result in sunny/mostly sunny skies across the area today as cool high pressure builds in across the region. Low temperatures tonight will return to being much cooler in the 30s to around 40 degrees. A deepening upper level low currently over Oregon will move into the Northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest this weekend. Models suggest the upper level trough axis will become negatively tilted as it moves into the Mississippi Valley.
548 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2019 VFR conditions will continue through the 12Z TAF pd in the wake of a cold front. /Today through Thanksgiving Day/ Cold front has moved across most of the region this morning, with only three parishes left to clear. Moisture will begin to increase once again from the top down, as srn stream trof moves across the Baja Peninsula towards TX.
1028 AM EST Wed Nov 27 2019 A cold front will move through tonight, followed by high pressure.
227 PM EST Wed Nov 27 2019 High winds, with gusts up to 60 mph at times, will continue into the early evening as deep low pressure moves through the Northern Great Lakes. A few showers will also be possible into this evening, with lows tonight in the low 30s and highs on Thursday near 40 degrees.
Model trends are holding this low level pattern into Thursday night, and the persistent isentropic lift over the E/NE winds should eventually lower the precip generation layer to just above the inversion with light rain and patchy drizzle being the predominant weather type for Thursday night, at least for the areas along and east of I-35. Some patchy fog may also result from the low level saturation.
Much cooler temperatures and drier weather can be expected for the remainder of the holiday week. and already occurring over the far western zones as moist flow wrapping around the Oregon low pressure upslopes into the Cascades and precipitates.
/issued 548 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2019/ VFR conditions will continue through the 12Z TAF pd in the wake of a cold front. /Today through Thanksgiving Day/ Cold front has moved across most of the region this morning, with only three parishes left to clear. Moisture will begin to increase once again from the top down, as srn stream trof moves across the Baja Peninsula towards TX.
This trend will continue into this evening as high pressure builds down. It will be rather cold tonight with lows near freezing for many areas.
1239 PM EST Wed Nov 27 2019 A cold front will move through tonight, followed by high pressure.
However, QPF amounts look pretty light and pcpn type will likely be some sort of mix between snow initially, and then later more drizzle/freezing drizzle looks possible. The period starts out with light freezing drizzle ongoing across most of the region. Freezing drizzle will become a wintry mix during the afternoon with areas seeing everything from rain to freezing rain to some snow mixed in depending on location.
light freezing rain and ice pellets), while KCDS remains all liquid. Off the Caprock precip is expected to remain liquid as temps are expected to remain above freezing. While ice accumulations are expected to be on the order of a few hundredths of an inch or less this could still cause travel issues especially on elevated roads and bridges.
230 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2019 High pressure is building into the area today and tonight. Ridge of high pressure will be the primary feature through the short-term forecast.
149 PM EST Wed Nov 27 2019 Showers and windy conditions will plague the region today with the approach and passage of a cold front. Gusty winds will continue the remainder of the afternoon and overnight as a cold front continues across the forecast area. CIPs analogs, mean momentum transfer values and DMO all continue to support area wide advisory winds and warning level winds in the higher elevations, therefore, no changes were made to the ongoing advisories/warnings this afternoon Post-frontal snow showers will be possible tonight into Thursday morning as strong northwest flow moves over the Great Lakes. Have limited snow amounts to an inch in the highest elevations.
/issued 706 AM EST Wed Nov 27 2019/ Latest RAP model runs show deep layer ridging dominating the area with a dry and stable air mass today. A dry cold front traverses the area from north to south over night. High pressure dominates with winds/seas no more than 15 knots/3 feet through Sat.
Ceilings and visibilities then deteriorate to IFR late tonight at KABI, mid morning at KSJT, and the rest of the terminals toward noon, as a warm front moves in and winds shift southeast. /issued 337 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2019/ (Today and Tonight) An upper level low will continue to dig south across California today and tonight. This upper low will cause Pacific and Gulf moisture to override the surface cold airmass in place across West Central Texas later today, bringing increased cloudiness and a chance of rainfall to the area tonight. (Thanksgiving Day through Wednesday) Unsettled pattern will continue as the main upper level trough moves into the Rockies.
Temperatures will be colder overnight, down into the lower 30s in most areas, and perhaps a few upper 20s as well. High pressure will remain across the area.
Cold front with accompanying showers will continue to weaken as it enters se Ga this evening. Mid-upper trough expected to remain well to the north so only expect a few dying showers over interior se Ga this afternoon. The front will be to our south by early Thursday morning with clearing skies and high pressure building in from the nw. Slightly cooler temperatures with lower humidity is expected on Thursday.
Northeast winds 12-15 kts with gusts over 20 kts at BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA, around 10 kts at AEX this afternoon behind the departing cold front. Winds expected to diminish to 8-12 kts after 00z but remain near this level overnight as high pressure continues to build north of the region. Rain chances continue to decrease this morning as the cold front exits the region. Cold front has moved passed the KAEX/KBPT/KLCH terminals and will be moving through the KLFT/KARA terminals by 27/14Z.
1010 AM EST Wed Nov 27 2019 A weak cold front will move through today and bring scattered showers.
Recent radar imagery shows most if not all of the precipitation has moved out of the area as a cold front/convergent zone continues to move through the forecast area. Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 37 56 41 / 70 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 35 53 38 / 80 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 65 35 53 37 / 70 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 31 49 34 / 80 0 0 0 TN.
The area of low pressure producing these conditions will continue to elongate through the afternoon and evening to help weaken impactful weather. That being said, models continue to demonstrate the return of snowfall across south-central Idaho by Thursday morning as the low sends another moisture push across the area. The downslope wind is anticipated to warm temperatures a few degrees today, with cooler temperatures expected on Thanksgiving.
While the surface cold front has moved off to the southeast, the upper-level boundary continues to remain fairly stationary aloft today. CAA behind the cold front allows for cooler air to filter into the Tennessee Valley tonight. As high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico amplifies the subtropical ridge, the weather over the forecast area will be precip free in part due to a combination of subsidence and a dry airmass.
A deep-layer ridge will move in from our west tonight behind the cold front that passed through earlier today.
1230 PM EST Wed Nov 27 2019 A weak cold front will move through today and bring scattered showers.
Rain chances continue to decrease this morning as the cold front exits the region. Cold front has moved passed the KAEX/KBPT/KLCH terminals and will be moving through the KLFT/KARA terminals by 27/14Z.
The winds are due to a strong low pressure center over Wisconsin that will be tracking into Michigan today. 09z/3am surface analysis shows a 992mb low over northeast Iowa, with a trailing cold front extending into west-central Illinois. With a tightening pressure gradient and impressive 8-10mb 3-hour pressure rises behind the low across western Missouri, a corridor of extremely strong winds has developed from northern Missouri into the SW KILX CWA. This high momentum air will overspread the entire area over the next few hours as the low continues to deepen and lift northeastward into the Great Lakes. Given upstream obs across Missouri, have decided to expand the High Wind Warning to the entire CWA. Much lighter winds are anticipated on Thanksgiving Day as high pressure builds into the region.
As of 10AM this morning the cold front is sitting in central AL and down along the southern AL/MS border.
1016 AM MST Wed Nov 27 2019 Current surface map places low across southern Wisconsin with weak high pressure across the western Dakotas.
938 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2019 While the surface cold front has moved off to the southeast, the upper-level boundary continues to remain fairly stationary aloft today. CAA behind the cold front allows for cooler air to filter into the Tennessee Valley tonight. As high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico amplifies the subtropical ridge, the weather over the forecast area will be precip free in part due to a combination of subsidence and a dry airmass.
The cold front that passed through the region overnight has pushed into the gulf and stretches from near the coast of South Texas to the mouth of the Mississippi and into the Florida Panhandle. High pressure is building into the north gulf coast and stretches across the plains and into Canada. Through tonight and into Thanksgiving the front will continue to move farther into the gulf while high pressure shifts east across the Mississippi Valley.
409 PM MST Wed Nov 27 2019 Water vapor shows upper ridge extending through the northern plains with vigorous upper low over OR. The deterministic GFS remains the furthest north with the low track, and is even on the northern edge of most GFS ensemble members. Warm advection on top of the cold surface air may result in some light freezing drizzle on Thanksgiving in our far eastern zones.
Overnight temperatures will sink into the low-to- middle 30s. Synoptically, a deep upper-level trough will dig along the west coast. Model soundings (RAP/NAM) indicate a wedge of dry air in the lowest 10 kft between 06z-12z (12am-6am) with deep saturation on up through the tropopause. Due to this wet-bulbing effect, the dry wedge will quickly erode and the low-levels will become both cold and saturated enough to support a mixture of snow, rain, and freezing rain. At this time, any road impacts will only be to bridges and overpasses.
710 PM EST Wed Nov 27 2019 A weak and dry cold front is currently stretched across the Florida Panhandle and is forecast to push south into the area by Thursday morning. Patchy fog and low ceilings will be possible ahead of an approaching cold front during the early morning hours, mainly around KTPA, KPIE, KLAL, and KSRQ, gradually lifting after sunrise. A weak and dry cold front will approach the area on Thursday, with winds turning to northerly, but generally remaining around 10-15 knots. High pressure will then build in north of the waters and settle south into the area this weekend, with light winds and seas holding.
High pressure is building into the area today and tonight. Ridge of high pressure will be the primary feature through the short-term forecast.
648 PM EST Wed Nov 27 2019 Issued at 648M EST Wed Nov 27 2019 The high winds will gradually diminish by daybreak as a deep low pressure over Lake Huron lifts northeast into Ontario.
High pressure and ridging aloft will continue to build into the region tonight into Thursday.
Precipitation will start out as snow and then switch over to freezing drizzle, especially over northeast Nebraska. Snow should end by late afternoon and switch to freezing drizzle. The winter weather advisory is in effect from 6 AM through 6 PM tomorrow over a large part of the CWA, If freezing drizzle remains to be a hazard,the advisory will have to be extended.
Quiet night expected across the mid state, with cooler temperatures continuing to move in behind the front from earlier today. Most of the area will see lows around and just below freezing thanks to mostly clear skies and just some high clouds hanging around.
00Z TAFS High pressure will build across the forecast area overnight.
By Thursday night, temperatures over far northern Missouri, north of Highway 36, may sufficiently cool to near or just below freezing. Limited cloud ice will be present, so the potential for light freezing drizzle or freezing rain could result in light icing.
Current temperatures are running several degrees warmer than anticipated. Have adjusted the overnight lows to just a couple of degrees warmer and as well as the hourly temperatures, dewpoints, RH and apparent temperature. Chattanooga Airport, TN 39 56 42 60 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 36 52 38 56 / 0 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 36 52 37 56 / 0 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 32 49 34 54 / 0 0 0 0.
834 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2019 Quiet weather across the Tennessee Valley region this evening as a strong area of high pressure noses its way in from the Gulf of Mexico. Subsidence from the ridge has promoted a mostly clear sky, save for a few band of cirrus filtering into the region from the west. A mostly clear sky and light winds have allowed temperatures to drop off into the low to mid 40s as of 02z. Ridge of high pressure will be the primary feature through the short-term forecast.
A weak cold front analyzed from the Florida panhandle through the Southern Appalachians to move south across the peninsula tonight. Expect lows in the upper 50s, with cooler spots across the interior Treasure Coast, and around 60 degrees along the barrier islands. Weak high pressure over the area will slide southward tonight into tomorrow.
The cold front associated with the former has moved well south and east of the CWA and the weakening gradient has allowed winds to diminish across the Mid-South. Dry air will allow temperatures to cool into the low/mid 30s, but scattered cirrus and winds around 5 mph will limit further cooling. Mid/high clouds will be on the increase tonight into early Thursday morning as the trough off the Baja coast lifts northeast across the Southern Plains. Isentropic ascent will weaken Thursday night as the trough passes to the northeast, decreasing rain chances after 00z.
319 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2019 Current water vapor loop shows a closed low off the Baja coast with a plume of subtropical moisture streaming out ahead of this feature into N Mexico. All models show this closed low transitioning to an open wave and translating northeastward into NM/TX over the nxt 24-36 hrs. An early transition to freezing rain will be likely across the Guadalupe & Delaware Mountains and portions of Southeast New Mexico per 12Z NAM/GFS bufr soundings. Temperatures are expected to increase above freezing early tomorrow morning between 12-15Z which will put an end to the frozen precipitation.
/issued 319 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2019/ Current water vapor loop shows a closed low off the Baja coast with a plume of subtropical moisture streaming out ahead of this feature into N Mexico. All models show this closed low transitioning to an open wave and translating northeastward into NM/TX over the nxt 24-36 hrs. An early transition to freezing rain will be likely across the Guadalupe & Delaware Mountains and portions of Southeast New Mexico per 12Z NAM/GFS bufr soundings. Temperatures are expected to increase above freezing early tomorrow morning between 12-15Z which will put an end to the frozen precipitation.
249 PM MST Wed Nov 27 2019 Water vapor shows upper ridge extending through the northern plains with vigorous upper low over OR. The deterministic GFS remains the furthest north with the low track, and is even on the northern edge of most GFS ensemble members. Warm advection on top of the cold surface air may result in some light freezing drizzle on Thanksgiving in our far eastern zones.
Quiet weather across the Tennessee Valley region this evening as a strong area of high pressure noses its way in from the Gulf of Mexico. Subsidence from the ridge has promoted a mostly clear sky, save for a few band of cirrus filtering into the region from the west. A mostly clear sky and light winds have allowed temperatures to drop off into the low to mid 40s as of 02z. Ridge of high pressure will be the primary feature through the short-term forecast.
Weak ridging and subsidence has helped to clear out the mid and high level clouds but a moist onshore flow continues to bring widespread low clouds to the UP. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the central U. with a deep trough in the wrn U. This trough moves northeast into the northern plains 12z Sat and into the upper Great Lakes region Sat night. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a closed 500 mb low and trough over the upper Great Lakes 12z Sun that moves into the lower Great Lakes 12z Mon. Ridging then back in for Thu. Otherwise, north winds will continue to diminish as high pressure builds toward the region.
1146 PM EST Wed Nov 27 2019 Rain and snow showers should end this morning with the passage of a low pressure trough.
302 AM EST Thu Nov 28 2019 Rain and snow showers should end this morning with the passage of a low pressure trough.
Brief patchy fog early this morning across portions of the area will dissipate quickly as drier air moves in behind a cold front.
257 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2019 Early this morning, a stratus deck had settled into the area as high pressure built into the area. This high pressure will lead to quiet weather for Thanksgiving. Any precip that does fall will be facing rather dry conditions in the low levels.
Patchy BR and low CIGs will be possible ahead of an approaching cold front during the early morning hours, gradually lifting after sunrise. /issued 710 PM EST Wed Nov 27 2019/ A weak and dry cold front is currently stretched across the Florida Panhandle and is forecast to push south into the area by Thursday morning. Patchy fog and low ceilings will be possible ahead of an approaching cold front during the early morning hours, mainly around KTPA, KPIE, KLAL, and KSRQ, gradually lifting after sunrise. A weak and dry cold front will approach the area on Thursday, with winds turning to northerly, but generally remaining around 10-15 knots. High pressure will then build in north of the waters and settle south into the area this weekend, with light winds and seas holding.
There will be increasing high and mid-level clouds as high-level moisture rides over the developing upper ridge. Current temperatures are running several degrees warmer than anticipated. Have adjusted the overnight lows to just a couple of degrees warmer and as well as the hourly temperatures, dewpoints, RH and apparent temperature. Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 42 60 46 63 / 0 0 0 20 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 38 56 44 60 / 0 10 0 30 70 Oak Ridge, TN 52 37 56 43 59 / 0 10 10 40 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 34 54 39 55 / 0 0 0 50 80.
A ridge of high pressure both surface and aloft can be expected across the area.
Dry air in the lower level initially will keep conditions mainly VFR but with arrival of heavier precip between 09-12z, expect ceilings and vis to lower quickly with IFR conditions developing in all areas by mid- morning.
Only a few mesonet station have wet-bulb temperatures at or below freezing, so freezing rain chances will continue to dwindle through the early morning.
/15/ Quiet weather is expected tonight with high pressure in place. High pressure and ridging aloft will continue to build into the region tonight into Thursday.
Temperatures this evening are already in the low to mid 30s across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Those temps should catch as clouds thicken, but evaporative cooling with the onset of the precipitation will get some areas near the Kansas border and part of northwest Arkansas to near freezing. Soundings appear to favor liquid precip in northwest Arkansas, so a few reports of light freezing rain in northwest Arkansas are not out of the question. The forecast has been tweaked a bit to add a mention freezing rain in parts of northwest Arkansas, and we have adjusted the area of sleet potential a bit in northeast Oklahoma.
956 PM MST Wed Nov 27 2019 Water vapor shows upper ridge extending through the northern plains with vigorous upper low over OR. The deterministic GFS remains the furthest north with the low track, and is even on the northern edge of most GFS ensemble members. Warm advection on top of the cold surface air may result in some light freezing drizzle on Thanksgiving in our far eastern zones.
Quiet weather is expected tonight with high pressure in place. High pressure and ridging aloft will continue to build into the region tonight into Thursday.