Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Water vapor imagery shows the upper low moving west out of Coahuila with deeper moisture over the western Gulf of Mexico into the Lower Texas coast advancing to the northwest. The upper low will continue to move west tonight into Thursday but models depict a very weak mid to upper level shear axis will remain over the region for Thursday.
Tonight and Thursday A cold front will bring showers and scattered thunderstorms to central and east central Wisconsin during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Thursday will start out sunny, but clouds will increase as an upper trough approaches in the afternoon. Thursday Night Through Wednesday The active weather pattern will make it's exit late Thursday night as high pressure moves into the region for most of the weekend.
1234 AM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017 High pressure will continue to push east of the region overnight. A cold front will cross the region later Thursday through Thursday night.
High pressure will briefly build over the area on Thursday.
After a relatively quiet night, chances for showers and storms will be on the increase tomorrow ahead of the upper trough and cold front.
/issued 401 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017/ The center of the upper level ridge axis remains out west across the TX panhandle with the eastern periphery extending well into the SE CONUS. A modest cu field managed to develop this afternoon across the entire region but did very little to keep temperatures from climbing well into the lower to mid 90s.
Strong onshore flow will usher marine air into the interior tonight and Thursday bringing morning clouds and cooler conditions.
Low pressure over Northern California will move east of the area tonight leaving the area under a dry southwest flow pattern for the next several days. Meanwhile in the bigger picture, water vapor imagery shows an area of low pressure over Northern California moving to the east along with a pronounced southwest flow of dry air moving into California. Over the next few days forecast models keep a weak trough of low pressure off the California coast and hold on to the southwest flow.
744 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 High pressure will move offshore tonight. A cold front moves across the area on Thursday bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Early-afternoon water vapor imagery and 12z upper-air data depicted a closed upper low near James Bay with an associated trough trailing southwest into the mid MO Valley. In the low levels, 18z mesoanalysis suggests that the primary surface boundary stretches from central IA through east-central NE before linking with an area of low pressure over north-central KS.
/issued 1017 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017/ Hot and muggy is the best way to describe the weather tonight as high pressure will remain in control. Otherwise, satellite imagery depicting scattered cu across the area while temperatures have warmed into the low 90s at all sites with the exception of the immediate coast. This as a persistent mid-level shear axis which assisted in the development of rains across the forecast area for the earlier portion of the week gives way to high pressure expanding east and southeast from the southwest CONUS.
1234 AM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017 A cold front will pass through the region Thursday, bringing a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm to the area, especially south of Route 24. Lows will drop into the lower 70s tonight with highs around 80 on Thursday. Lingering pops Thursday as main trough approaches with cold front moving through. High pressure will dominate conditions through most if not all of the period. As a result, dry forecast will prevail with temperatures in the lower to middle 80s and comfortable humidity levels.
Split cold front structure will be slow to scour out the airmass tomorrow. Large mid level trough and low centered over Hudson Bay will push a weak shallow cold front currently across Wisconsin and the U. Models shunt this higher theta-e more eastward leaving the southeastern half of the cwa more moisture starved hence less likelihood for shower and thunderstorm activity, especially with loss of diurnal component. The cold front will continue slowly south across lower Michigan Thursday morning before exiting into Ohio in the afternoon.
742 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 A cold front across the central Great Lakes will drop southeast across the region on Thursday as low pressure moves through the lower Ohio Valley.
The ridge axis does weaken a bit and with the boundary layer profiles remaining very warm/moist the areal coverage may be slightly higher.
Minor perturbations in southwest flow with a weak cold pool in the mid levels tracking into the CWA this afternoon and producing convection over the high country.
The latest run of the GFS was drier due to the upper level high pressure ridge showing signs of developing overhead from the Southern Plains.
909 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Clear skies with light winds through the night will bring cool overnight lows in the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Lee side troughing and southerly flow will produce warmer conditions west of the Missouri River than in the remainder of the cwa.
The latest water vapor satellite loop shows an upper low over central Mexico this afternoon. This low will continue to retrograde westward across Mexico this evening. To the east of this upper low, deep layer southeasterly flow will help usher some deeper moisture into portions of south central Texas.
This activity remains flanked along the northern periphery of ridging and should persist in some capacity north of the I 69 corridor this evening and overnight. Split cold front structure will be slow to scour out the airmass tomorrow. Large mid level trough and low centered over Hudson Bay will push a weak shallow cold front currently across Wisconsin and the U. Models shunt this higher theta-e more eastward leaving the southeastern half of the cwa more moisture starved hence less likelihood for shower and thunderstorm activity, especially with loss of diurnal component. The cold front will continue slowly south across lower Michigan Thursday morning before exiting into Ohio in the afternoon.
This happened because the high pressure centered to our east has built westward causing moisture transport from the south to lower considerably. The general gist is that an approaching trough will push the center of high pressure back to the east over the weekend allowing another surge of moisture to stream into the area.
506 PM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Mean ridging can be expected over the region through the period. Moist southerly flow will persists in NE WY ahead of the next impulse with convection redeveloping along a stationary trough there.
High pressure remains over the Gulf, supporting light to moderate southeast winds. The convection will continue until around sunset this evening, after which time, streamer activity will affect the Lower Texas coastal waters and the extreme inland coastal area.
Despite the cloud cover, temperatures have warmed into the mid 90s, with dewpoints remaining in the low to mid 70s. Later tonight, another complex of rain/thunderstorms will develop across Central Missouri as the low level jet overspreads the frontal boundary.
1017 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Hot and muggy is the best way to describe the weather tonight as high pressure will remain in control. Otherwise, satellite imagery depicting scattered cu across the area while temperatures have warmed into the low 90s at all sites with the exception of the immediate coast. This as a persistent mid-level shear axis which assisted in the development of rains across the forecast area for the earlier portion of the week gives way to high pressure expanding east and southeast from the southwest CONUS.
A significant upper-lvl jet will set up over the central Dakotas, placing much of the high plains in the RFQ of a 120+ knot H25 jet streak. We anticipate much of the high plains to be very close to warning-level winds on Friday afternoon, w/ mixing and subsidence likely supporting 50-55 MPH gusts for all areas along/e of the Laramie Range. Weather dominated by ridge of high pressure to the west.
NASA SPoRT LIS skin temperatures are still well above freezing (43-48 degrees F) along and south of Interstate 10 and not expecting snow significant accumulations near the southern terminals as a result. Snow packed roads are going to get icy as well as bridges. Temperatures will struggle to get above freezing until probably 9 am with all the snow on the ground there. AMDAR soundings (HOU/IAH) all showing the transition over to freezing around 1700ft with freezing profile above. Temperatures are forecast to remain at or above freezing to the south of the advisory including the Houston Metro area so the snow should melt on contact with roads.
Cold air continues to filter south into the region with temps ranging from the mid 20s along the KY/MO borders to the lower 30s across North Mississippi. Monitoring the development of winter weather across the south states as an upper trough pivots across the lower Mississippi Valley this morning and moisture overruns the cold air across the region. There is a nice dendritic growth zone depicted but the question is whether the snow falling aloft will overcome the drier air filtering in at the low levels. As the trough pivots this morning the main areas of lift and moisture push east and any precipitation would quickly end. Expect the pattern to remain stable for the next 7 days with the mean upper trough in the east and upper ridge in the west.
With the upper ridge remaining across the west and troughing across the east, middle section of the country is stuck in persistent northwest flow. Some question as to whether the dendritic layer would be saturated, so left mix of possibly light freezing drizzle/snow in the forecast near Windom through the early evening hours.
1125 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017 A secondary frontal boundary pushed through last night bringing our temperatures to the lowest of the year so far this morning with a stiff breeze and single digit wind chills. A weak elevated warm front will pass through overnight helping to keep winds between 5-10mph throughout the night and shifting to the W-SW.
Things don't look to change much at all through the period, with the western ridge and eastern trough looking to hold on through next Thursday. There are some indications that the western ridge will begin breaking down toward the end of the period, with the upper flow becoming more zonal along the northern tier of the CONUS after that, but we'll need to wait and see if that model trend persists.
There is still some snow over the Palmer Ridge, southern foothills and Park country. Lows tonight will be several degrees warmer with warm advection and a downslope component in place. The strong winds combined with warmer temperatures and low humidities will create high grassland fire danger. Large blocking upper ridge will continue to bring prolonged dry and warm conditions to the region.
Over the weekend a coastal low pressure system may spread light snow into the Poconos and Western Catskills.
A positively sheared upper trough over the southern states has allowed moisture to overrun the cold and dry surface air. Precipitation associated with the trough should remain to our south with wintry conditions possible over central and southern Mississippi and Alabama. Surface analysis this afternoon places a cold front over portions of East Tennessee back through Northern Alabama and Central Mississippi. Not much change expected in the overall synoptic pattern across North America for the next 7 days as upper level ridging will remain in place across the Western United States and an upper level trough over the Eastern United States.
/issued 539 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017/ Upper level low pressure trough transitioning through at the start of the TAF forecast. /issued 224 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017/ The slow-moving upper level trough that has brought precipitation to roughly the southern half of West Texas continues to shift slowly to the east and southeast, its axis along a line from northeastern Sonora across eastern New Mexico to the lower Missouri Valley. The cold start and a period of mid cloud will be more than offset by a rapid increase in thicknesses as the main upper trough accelerates quickly eastward.
345 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017 WV imagery shows the upper trough exiting West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Further west, a highly-amplified ridge has developed over the western CONUS. Once the upper trough moves further east, dry, NW flow aloft will set in over the region, and dictate the wx into the extended. Over the next 36 hrs, models develop a cut-off low in the Pacific that is forecast to move east to Baja and undercut the ridge by 00Z Tue, but this looks to have little effect on things closer to home. Otherwise, w/the exiting trough goes the stratus/fog, allowing full insolation to get temps back to above-normal by Sat.
Latest fog satellite imagery clearly shows the widespread stratus/fog layer over the lower elevations. With that in mind will keep the current Advisories going over the foothills with an emphasis on the higher elevations. It looks like the low clouds are expanding toward Bend and Redmond and will see what type of visibilities they receive for a possible freezing fog advisory there later this evening.
A strong upper ridge will bring dry, or nearly dry, weather to Western Washington through next Thursday at least. An upper ridge will remain over the Pacific Northwest through the weekend for dry weather with low level offshore flow.
309 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017 A positively tilted, multi-stream trough from Ontario to northwest Mexico will advance southeast in response to the progression of an upstream perturbation from northern Manitoba into the upper-MS Valley today and the mid-MS/lower-OH Valleys tonight. In the low levels, a cold front will move through the area this morning along with increasing low to mid-level clouds.
1149 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017 Area remains under a deep/cold mid-level trough extending from Hudson Bay Canada through WI into the central/southern Plains.
1243 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 MVFR to LIFR ceilings and visibilities have already developed across the area along and south of a slow moving cold front entering the area. /issued 815 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2017/ A cold front continues to drift south over central and southwest Florida tonight and on Friday.
Observations and satellite imagery showing higher cloud spilling south over the western Conus ridge into the northern Plains with surface obs showing a higher theta-e airmass to the northwest. Dry air and clear skies should allow for a fast fall in temperatures, but northwest winds off the surface bring in a warmer and more humid airmass, with the stronger winds aloft and increasing clouds likely keeping overnight temperatures fairly steady. Overnight warm air advection over the cold boundary layer should allow for highs in the low to mid 40s.
425 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 High pressure overnight and Friday.
Weak high pressure remains over the area with a progressive northwest flow aloft. Current surface analysis places weak trough stretching through the northern plains into the central Rockies, while high remains over the southern plains. Upper level analysis places ridge over the west coast with trough stretching from the Great Lakes into the desert southwest.
Expect a quiet and dry overnight as we remain in the dry slot ahead of an upper trough axis, and to the north of a persistent SW flow moisture stream. Some spots will be in the upper teens with some spots in the lower 20s. In fact, we'll be well below normal with highs only in the mid and upper 30s again tomorrow, and lows Friday night in the low to mid 20s.
It will be cold enough aloft for all snow in the higher terrain, and precip amounts are expected to be enough for the winter weather advisory to be expanded to the northeast TN mountain zones. Rain may mix in with snow in some of the lower elevation areas as well since boundary layer temps expected to be borderline for snow.
154 AM PST Fri Dec 8 2017 High pressure will bring dry conditions with valley inversions, cold nights and light winds for the next 10 days. The next few days are going to be about as quiet as they get as upper level ridge sits atop the Sierra and western NV.
We will watch this ridge axis slowly slide south during the day today as another frontal system moves southeast toward the area.
The pattern will favor upper level troughing over the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley with strong upper ridging over the western CONUS.
With an upper level trough positioned over TX, mid to upper level flow will remain southwesterly today. In addition, the low clouds this morning will also remain in place.
1243 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 High pressure and drier air will build in overnight and Friday.
Snow amounts limited by temperature and dewpoints just above freezing for much of the event. Still, with uncertainty and minor impacts likely on elevated roadways and bridges where temps go below freezing, feel confident that advisory criteria will be met.
342 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017 Northeasterly flow was in place across the forecast area this morning as the upper level trough that has brought a plethora of precipitation types across the state continues to slowly move off to the east. This will likely allow min temperatures for most of the forecast area to make it into the low teens, and I wouldn't be surprised if a few locations in the Rolling Plains flirt with single digits before the cloud cover starts to increase.
The main changes since 00Z is a total saturation below the inversion and dynamic cooling in the sub-cloud base layer is now below freezing between 2266ft and 4864ft.
Some ridge tops in the Black Hills could easily see gusts over 50 mph through the night. Current surface analysis shows warm front over central SD, with milder air building in behind it. Upper level analysis shows broad trough covering most of the central and eastern US, with high amplitude ridge along the west coast. The warming trend will continue through the weekend as ridge along the west coast nudges eastward.
A very cold high pressure ridge will sink south into the southern Plains and lower OH Valley tonight, likely bringing the coldest temperatures with it since last March.
Convergent westerly wind flow noted over western and south central Lake Superior along lake-induced trough will likely focus a dominant les band into the Keweenaw Peninsula late this afternoon into the evening hours.
300 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017 08Z water vapor imagery shows an upper trough stretching from the TX Big Bend northeast through the mid MS river valley and the Great Lakes region. The axis of this upper trough had already pass over the forecast area. To the west, an upper ridge extended north into British Columbia. A wind shift was noted along the trough axis with area OBS showing warmer temps and higher dewpoints behind the wind shift. Lows tonight are forecast to be in the lower and middle 20s as northwest winds keep some mixing of the boundary layer and prevent the bottom from dropping out of temps overnight.
1031 mb high pressure over central KS and ridging into the mid MS and lower Ohio river valleys has clear skies over central IL at mid afternoon.
446 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 High pressure and dry conditions will be present today into tonight.
1133 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017 Had to make some drastic changes to overnight lows, as light winds clear skies and the ridge axis moving overhead has led to temps dropping like a rock late this evening, with optimal radiational cooling conditions. Models show some isentropic lift in the 285K-290K layer with this cloud deck behind the upper trough.
Updated aviation discussion A cold front has moved through the region resulting in much cooler temperatures with desert highs Friday only rising into the middle 60s to around 70 degrees. The coldest overnight lows of the season will arrive Friday morning with some spots touching the freezing mark.
251 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017 A cold pattern will continue through this forecast period with a strong upper ridge along the west coast and a deep trough over the eastern states. A few impulses will dig into the trough.
Even with sunshine, temps are remaining in the lower 30s. Most locations will drop into the lower teens for lows however the valleys and sheltered locations of the Ozarks may experience a few single digit lows. Winds will be more out of the west southwest Friday and highs will be a few degrees warmer than Today.
/Tonight through Friday/ Deep cyclonic flow continues for the eastern two-thirds of the conus as an upper level low churns over the Hudson Bay.
Forecast area will remain on the leading edge of a highly amplified ridge anchored over the western U.
Tonight and Friday Clouds will be on the increase tonight as a weak trough tracks through the western Great Lakes region. Highs Friday will be a bit warmer with temperatures ranging from the lower 20s across the north, with upper 20s across east- central Wisconsin.
1139 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017 This afternoon, the upper air pattern reflects a longwave RIDGE over coastal western North America and a TROF over much of the middle and eastern portions of North America, with the TROF axis extending from the western Great Lakes southwestward to southern New Mexico. The TROF axis aloft will work its way thru our region tonight but uneventfully, with clear skies expected to persist. Combined with the presence of a weak RIDGE at the surface, should allow temps to plunge into the teens by early Friday morning, with some single digits possible in sheltered valley areas. Thanks to SW surface winds in the wake of the RIDGE axis, temps will recover closer to averages for early December, but still about 5 degrees below--or in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
1027 PM MST Thu Dec 7 2017 A very stagnant pattern will continue with a very large high pressure ridge along the west coast extending north well above the Arctic Circle producing cool dry northerly flow over western Wyoming through the weekend. As the ridge moves slowly east wind aloft will decrease with gradual warming.
A trough is on its way tonight and during the overnight, we could get a skiff of snow as it passes through. Temperatures will be noticeably warmer tonight with increased sky cover, with lows generally around 20. Friday may wind up feeling colder than today, despite technically warmer temperatures, as wind gusts will probably be in the 20-30 mph range with our highs near 40 to the mid 40s.
Another cool night is on tap tonight as an upper level trough exits the area.
Overcast skies tonight will limit significant radiational cooling tonight resulting in overnight lows to be in the low to mid 20s. Expect daytime highs to range from the low 50s across southwest Nebraska to the upper 30s across the northeast forecast area (Boyd and Holt counties). The ridge axis centered over the Wrn U.
Also, bumped up the amounts a bit too with increasing confidence, again with the main concerns being in the grassy areas and elevated surfaces since temperatures are expected to remain on the warmer side.
High magnitude upper ridge currently covers the Pacific Coast and Western North America as far north as the Yukon.
upper trof will provide sufficient lift for another round of snow showers late this afternoon through tonight across the central mountains, southeast mountains and adjacent plains. Any accumulations should remain minor, around an inch or less for most lower elevation sites and perhaps up to 2 inches or a little better across the higher peaks. With cloudy skies overnight, and warmer air spreading in from the north, low temperatures tonight will be warmer than last nights, and will likely hit their minimum during the evening hours across the higher peaks. Friday will be dry and warmer district wide with temperatures returning to above normal.
Clear skies, diminishing wind, and much cooler air will set the stage for freezing and subfreezing temperatures across much of the area tonight.
1226 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 High pressure will remain to our south tonight and Friday then move east Friday night.