Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night): Brownsville radar currently shows isolated showers across the southern end of the lower Texas Gulf waters. A mid-level weakness over northeast Texas this afternoon and tonight will be replaced by a 500 mb ridge building into the region from the west on Wednesday.
A better chance for thunderstorms will come Wednesday afternoon and evening as a surface cold front will move into Nebraska later tonight from the northwest.
112 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2020 Cooler weather is expected through Wednesday before high pressure strengthens across the Southwest through the weekend.
We should see a few thunderstorms begin to develop around 2-3PM again this afternoon with highs in the low to mid 90s. Upper level pattern has an split pattern, with an upper level ridge north of the Mid-south. In the southern US, there is an upper trough just out the east of the Mid-South and an upper high to the west. The upper low to the east will slowly move east during the rest of the week, however, it also broadens out. The upper high doesn't move much. Yet, the northern branch is progressive and late in the week the upper level ridge has moved east and an upper low will push to the north and then dig south when it gets closer to the east coast.
So not surprisingly, cloud line shower and thunderstorm development is occurring now over and just Gulfside of the Lower Keys.
1225 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a broad area of high pressure which extended from the Four Corners east into the sern states. The trough of low pressure, currently over the Pacific NW states, will quickly transition east this morning, approaching the northern Rockies by afternoon. Based on the latest NAM12, NAMNEST and GFS solns, went ahead and painted the highest pops east of highway 83.
With the mid level trough over the region, the high temperatures will not be quite as warm as yesterday with readings near or just slightly above normal.
Highs ought to top out in the low to mid 90s this afternoon , with warmest temps in the 95-98 F range over the western counties. The CAMs all generate clusters of convection across eastern Colorado late this afternoon, and stall out/decay the convection presumably from the very weak upper flow aloft from the mid level ridge axis, before any storms are able to enter western Kansas this evening. For Wednesday, a dryline will move a little farther east, allowing hotter temperatures, along with slightly decreased heat indices west of the highway 23 corridor, while temperatures across the central Kansas counties will be likely relegated to the upper 90s but very humid as dew points remain in the mid to upper 60s from Wakeeney to Dodge City and Meade and points eastward.
Overnight, temperatures remain warm and are expected to be even warmer tomorrow across the area. Just a degree or two warmer than today will put us near heat advisory criteria.
As the upper ridge builds into OK from the west on Wednesday, this area of showers/storms will be pushed farther east.
255 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020 Much of the peninsula remains situated between a ridge axis aloft over southern parts of the state while a weakness aloft resides to the north over parts of the Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Expect afternoon highs in the low 90s the next few days with heat indices flirting with, but not reaching advisory levels.
Chances of severe wx on the low side. Ridge begins getting a better grip onto area wx tomorrow. With lower PW's & more subsidence we'd anticipate POPs to be on the low side (if at all) and temps on a upward trend. Not a lot of issues pertaining to rain chances are expected during this part of the forecast as the upper ridge (just to our west) re- mains large and in charge. High pressure currently situated in the eastern Gulf will gradually make its way toward the northwest Gulf by the weekend.
Ridging will build on Wednesday leaving the best chance for showers/storms over the ridges during the afternoon. High temperatures in the low 90s will persist.
An upper trough, and associated cold front, is currently working across the Pacific Northwest and into western Montana. Extending southward, is a negatively tilted extension of this trough and an associated LLJ forming in the 850 to 700 mb layer. Heading into Wednesday, ongoing showers and storms continue eastward along the cold front.
Storms are forming across the higher terrain in central and southwest Montana and will progress eastward into Northeast Montana. An upper trough moves across the state on Wednesday with slightly cooler and generally drier weather. A few storms are possible near the Canadian border with the proximity of a stacked low pressure system moving from Saskatchewan into Manitoba. Ridge then builds north from the Desert Southwest for hot and dry weather for the remainder of the week.
This feature will become a stationary shear axis on Wednesday that will move to the west Wednesday night as high pressure ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico builds westward. The high temperatures will be slightly warmer on Wednesday as the ridge begins to move in from the east. These warmer temperatures combined with continued high humidity will lead to slightly higher afternoon heat index values with readings at or above 110/advisory criteria over the inland Coastal Bend and over the western Brush Country.
We should see a few thunderstorms begin to develop around 2-3PM again this afternoon with highs in the low to mid 90s. Upper level pattern has a split pattern, with an upper level ridge north of the Mid-south. In the southern US, there is an upper trough just east of the Mid-South and an upper high to the west. The upper low to the east will slowly move east during the rest of the week, however, it also broadens out. The upper high won't move much. Yet, the northern branch is progressive and late in the week the upper level ridge has moved east and an upper low will push to the north and then dig south when it gets closer to the east coast.
while west of the trough. while the northern Panhandle seeing afternoon humidity in the low to mid 20 percent range because of the higher dewpoints. Cooler temperatures expected over today's highs.
At 500 mb, a broad ridge has helped dampen thunderstorm activity. The pattern changes by mid-to-late week as the 500- mb ridge becomes more amplified. This will place the Ozarks on the eastern periphery of the ridge as upper flow veers west- northwest.
A cold front has moved through the Northern Rockies today causing temperatures to be around 10 to 15 degrees cooler compared to yesterday. The upper level that brought the cold front is causing some instability across northern Idaho and northwest Montana.
1055 AM PDT Tue Jul 7 2020 Today will be breezy and cooler following the passage of a cold front.
Temperatures will see a brief respite Wednesday with a passing trough through the northern Rockies to help suppress the ridge a bit farther south.
1243 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020 Today-tonight: With exit of upper trough, only minor 300MB diffluence, and warming 500MB temperatures, would expect storms to be less numerous today. While there is a fair amount of difference between models on 850MB moisture, it appears that at least southeast KS may hold onto the higher dewpoints another day.
834 AM PDT Tue Jul 7 2020 Cooler weather is expected today and Wednesday before high pressure strengthens across the Southwest through the weekend.
224 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2020 Potent upper trough will shift east through southern Canada, with the southern end of the trough passing over the FA and supporting the dry line east. Further west and along the Pine Ridge, CIN is weakening as the dry line shifts east and strong heating occurs respectively. Much drier and slightly cooler day Wed with just a slight chance of TS in Tripp county where the sfc front may linger in the early afternoon before it shifts east. Critical fire weather conds still expected later this afternoon and early evening over NE WY and far southwest SD as winds shift SW and increase behind a trough. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to around 40 mph are expected with RHâs of 5 to 10 percent on the backside of the trough.
Wednesday: Guidance is trending on the cooler side for highs, but with a sfc front off to the north that will be pushing south, and good southerly flow in place, it's likely that highs will still be well into the 90s.
312 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020 Recent water vapor imagery showing upper ridge building northeast into the northern Plains today while objective analysis puts a deepening lee trough to the west. Quiet though warm and muggy conditions should be the rule through Wednesday afternoon with modest upper ridging in place. Stronger low- level flow and continued modification of the airmass is expected to keep lows a bit warmer than this morning and Wednesday's highs a bit warmer in kind. 700 mb temps warm to around 14 C by this time and the low-level jet remains modest at 20-25 knots however so how robust the storms can be once they reach Kansas is in question.
A cold front has moved through the Northern Rockies today causing temperatures to be around 10 to 15 degrees cooler compared to yesterday. The upper level system that brought the cold front is causing some instability across northern Idaho and northwest Montana.
High pressure develops in the Gulf of Mexico with a little drier air in the mid-levels as the low pressure system in the SE moves offshore and up the eastern seaboard pulling the moisture north with it. With the broad high pressure wind flow remains light with sea breeze typical summertime convection across South Florida. As the low slowly lifts northward through the first half of the weekend, southwesterly to southerly flow will remain in place, keeping ample low-level moisture across South Florida. Large scale troughing then gradually builds across the Eastern CONUS aloft through the weekend, bringing additional forcing for ascent for the latter half of the period.
/issued 357 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020/ The upper level pattern today remains very similar to that of the last several days with the CWA sitting in a region of weakness between 2 ridges with ample moisture in place. The ridge centered near the 4 Corners region of the country will begin to deepen and expand eastward.
Low pressure is tracking eastward across northeastern GA toward SC. Waves of showers and thunderstorms will stream over the area waters today with the highest chances over the GA waters.
Showers and thunderstorms expected to persist until early evening with greatest coverage over Ohio zones where sfc dewpoints are currently in the lower 70s. Ridging will build on Wednesday leaving the best chance for showers/storms over the ridges during the afternoon. High temperatures in the low 90s will persist.
Mostly clear and continued cooler than normal through Wednesday under weak upper trough over the interior nwrn US.
A strong upper ridge centered over the four corners region will expand slightly westward late in the week, so despite another weak trough passing by, interior temperatures will trend upward gradually into the weekend.
855 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2020 Partial clearing and cooler temperatures are expected for the remainder of tonight.
* Gradual warming the next few days as a series of troughs coming out of the Pac NW counteract the Four Corners heat ridge attempting to establish itself.
1040 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020 Currently - A lower level ridge extends east/west across the Florida Peninsula. Modest ridging is also in place through the mid to upper levels. Short Term Update - The large scale ridging will persist. Expect winds to back more northeast to east and remain light as the effects of the bifurcated ridge is felt. Overnight lows will be broadly in the lower 80s with dew point temperatures staying in the mid to upper 70s. A split ridge across the Florida Peninsula will maintain light northeast to east breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
TAFs will include VCTS after 18Z with PROB30 in the 19-23Z timeframe because this is the highest-confidence timing for now.
/issued 255 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020/ Much of the peninsula remains situated between a ridge axis aloft over southern parts of the state while a weakness aloft resides to the north over parts of the Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Expect afternoon highs in the low 90s the next few days with heat indices flirting with, but not reaching advisory levels.
The most recent water vapor satellite imagery shows that the mid-tropospheric trough topping the ridge will continue to move across the forecast area today. Ahead of the closed low across Saskatchewan. ridging will build back in.
Thunderstorms will exit Central MT this evening, as cooler air moves into the region for Wednesday.
Recent water vapor imagery showing upper ridge building northeast into the northern Plains today while objective analysis puts a deepening lee trough to the west. Quiet though warm and muggy conditions should be the rule through Wednesday afternoon with modest upper ridging in place. Stronger low- level flow and continued modification of the airmass is expected to keep lows a bit warmer than this morning and Wednesday's highs a bit warmer in kind. 700 mb temps warm to around 14 C by this time and the low-level jet remains modest at 20-25 knots however so how robust the storms can be once they reach Kansas is in question.
/issued 229 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night): Brownsville radar currently shows isolated showers across the southern end of the lower Texas Gulf waters. A mid-level weakness over northeast Texas this afternoon and tonight will be replaced by a 500 mb ridge building into the region from the west on Wednesday.
A wave of low pressure continues to move east along the boundary and and is currently across the low country of GA/SC. /Issued 254 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020/ The tropical, mesoscale, low pressure system driving the current weather pattern continues to meander around east central Georgia with satellite imagery currently centering it around Greensboro, GA. A moist, profile in the low-to-mid levels of the atmosphere combined with low mid-level lapse rates will make severe thunderstorms difficult to develop this afternoon, but widespread light showers and training lines of heavy showers and storms should paint the forecast area this afternoon before fading into tonight.
A trough of low pressure passed through the region last night and now a more zonal flow pattern will set up the next couple of days.
A mid level shear axis gradually dissipates by later today as the Subtropical Ridge builds in overhead and strengthens on Thursday.
349 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020 The mid-upper level weather pattern will remain very weak today into Thursday, as we remain between a flat ridge (and main westerlies) to the north over the Great Lakes region, and a broad trof of low pressure located over the southeastern states.
Drier air will move into E ND today and a cold front will move east and be in the RRV midday and in western MN by mid aftn.
216 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2020 Synoptic Setup: Hot high pressure runs from the Four Corners to the central US Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley. Cooler pacific Air lies over the southwest quarter of Canada int he form of a trough. Today through tonight: The low pressure over southern Saskatchewan will curl up pulling a strong pressure gradient behind it to the south. Winds should die down in the evening hours with sunset and the low should pull east dragging the strongest gradient along with it and leave dry conditions into the early morning hours.
High pressure will be the main synoptic feature at the surface and aloft today, as a 591dam ridge at 500mb was building in from the Desert Southwest.
Thursday, additional scattered afternoon convection should develop in the slightly increasing southwesterly flow ahead of an upper-level trough.
310 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020 Showers and thunderstorms will persist through Thursday as low pressure approaches the SC coast.
Some of the higher-resolution models are trying to break out convection near the state line this evening but these struggle to last very long before we lose daytime heating. Temperatures will be warmer today as the high pressure ridge to the west starts to expand over the area which will mark the start of a prolonged period of hot weather.
Lows will be in the lower 70s. Very little change in the weather for Wednesday and Wednesday Night as the upper low continues to spin over SC with a mid level ridge strengthening and pushing north over the Gulf of Mexico. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the lower 70s.
This convection could offset the low stratus development and result in MVFR/VFR cigs to return to those areas, but elsewhere, a gradual improvement to cigs are expected by mid-morning, where cigs will lift to MVFR, and eventually VFR by late morning/midday. Some cu and cirrus may linger through the evening after the convection diminishes, with the low stratus shield expected to develop/spread N across E TX/N LA after 06Z Thursday.
412 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020 Deep moisture remains in place across the region associated with an area of low pressure moving east-northeastward toward the Carolina coast, with a trailing boundary remaining across the forecast area. A weak upper trough over the Mississippi Valley this morning will shift slowly eastward through this afternoon. Atwell Messy NW flow pattern in place for the first half of the extended as strong upper ridging takes a hold of the southwestern states and weak driving remains in place over our area.
Partial clearing and cooler temperatures are expected for the remainder of tonight.
Afternoon temperatures should surge into the lower to middle 90s area-wide. Taking into account the high humidity, heat indices should near 100 degrees this afternoon. Temperatures should be a few degrees cooler in the upper 80s to near 90.
Better rain chances are expected to accompany a weak cold front, which will move into the mid-Mississippi Valley Thursday evening.
Finally a change in the overall pattern begins on Wednesday as an upper ridge builds over the central CONUS and ArkLaTex region. We begin to see "drier" air work its way into our area as winds aloft turn out of the northwest on the upstream side of the upper ridge. Wednesday marks the return of typical summertime heat as temps climb back into the low 90s, especially south of Highway 84 where clearer skies and a lower thunderstorm coverage is expected.
High pressure remains the dominant surface synoptic scale feature influencing sensible weather across South Florida. Aloft, a trough is building over the southeastern United States at the mid-levels which will shift the ridge axis to the south of the region at that level. Temperatures will be hot once again with highs reaching into the lower to mid 90s and heat index values reaching well into the triple digits yet again. The low pressure area monitored by NHC may come into play with trailing moisture again around the region. The trough aloft becomes more entrenched over the region, which could provide some extra support and slightly improved lapse rates due to cooler temperatures aloft.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): 500mb ridge centered over the Desert SW and NW Mexico begins to build and expand eastward through the short term and beyond. Southerly flow strengthens today and Thursday as a mid-layer low pressure trough emerges over the Rockies and tracks over the Plains.
Models do develop more widespread MVFR CIGS area-wide in the moist SW flow around the low pressure just northeast of the TAF sites.
By Thursday, a faster mid level pattern will begin to develop across the area as 500mb heights lower in response to low pressure moving east across south central Canada.
Today will hold the same weather pattern we been experiencing with broad upper-level ridging in place and light southerly flow bringing us little to no relief into the area. Expect highs to reach into the lower 90s with heat indices climbing into the upper 90s with some areas seeings the heat index reach as high as 100. Low temps will dip into the lower to mid 70s overnight. The rest of the region will once again see highs in the lower 90s with heat indices reaching into the upper 90s and potentially topping off in the lower 100s.
This upper-level atmospheric arrangement will remain largely unchanged until the weekend, when an amplification of the ridge is forecast.
Meanwhile, a short wave over the Lower Mississippi Valley this morning will move east into and across our CWA late today and overnight. Highs will be in the upper 80s to around 90 with lows in the lower to mid 70s.
Heat indices look to rise into the mid 90s at the high end, especially in ne lower MI and along my southern border. Quiet marine wx continues, with limited winds/waves as weak high pressure is centered over the northern Great Lakes.
325 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020 A stout area of high pressure remains sprawled over the region this morning. As noted above, the better dewpoints appear to be the south this morning and the CAMs seem to show the better developing today across these southern areas, so will go with the highest pops generally south of the Hal Rogers Parkway. The mid and upper level ridge will push back into the Southern Plains and reassert itself as it does. This will allow a mid and upper level trough to develop in the east and several waves of energy move east into the Ohio Valley. This will eventually swing a cold front our direction this weekend.
A breezy, cooler and less humid day is expected today. An upper-level low will loiter around southern Saskatchewan today and some wrap around showers or isolated thunderstorms are may make it far enough south to impact far northern North Dakota late this afternoon, though there is a better chance overnight as the low begins to exit to the west. Temperatures will likely fall into the low 50s across the west. Thereafter, the subtropical ridge is forecast to strengthen across the southern US, with increasing westerly flow across the northern CONUS.
Late in the period, an upper level ridge will become better established over the southern Rockies.
A better chance for thunderstorms will come Wednesday afternoon and evening as a surface cold front will move into Nebraska later tonight from the northwest. A large ridge of high pressure will be in place from west TX into AZ, with our region on the southern periphery of the stronger westerlies.
Better chances for showers and thunderstorms should arrive Thursday into Thursday night as a cold front approaches from the north central U. Behind this cold front, temperatures will cool slightly for the weekend.
Temperatures will likely be a degree or two warmer than yesterday with additional drying and a bit more wind. Timing-wise, if the precipitation/clouds linger and/or boundary goes as far south as currently depicted, temperatures will be considerably cooler and instability much lower for any storms Thursday afternoon/night.
This will support continued generally westerly flow, with deep moisture being pulled into the Florida Peninsula behind the low.
Heat advisory conditions are expected to be across a larger portion of S TX on Thu as upper level high pressure builds across S TX. Although a mid/upper level trough is currently over TX today, the cap will be strong and PWATs are progged to decrease.
249 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020 Deep moisture is in place across the region associated with an area of low pressure moving east-northeastward toward the coast. A weak upper trough will remain over the region through daybreak. The low will continue to shift slowly eastward early this morning. A weak upper trough will continue to move eastward across the Carolinas today. Continued to indicate the highest pops east.
A fairly decent upper trof will move eastward across the northern Plains Wednesday night. Severe convection is expected to develop along the cold front in Nebraska by early Wednesday evening. This should promote a general southeastward propagation/movement into the low level instability axis across portions of central and southeast Kansas. However, the southwestern extent of the convection or MCS may be limited by the warmer westerly mid-level flow/inhibition, especially over south central Kansas.