Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
531 PM MDT Wed Sep 28 2016 Deep closed low will remain in place over the great lakes with nw conus troughing ongoing. Mean ridging has resulted in the northern plains. However, the nw conus trough will now be close enough to influence the region with periphery impulses. Pressure falls will ensue tonight with reflected se flow under lee side troughing.
745 PM MST WED SEP 28 2016 A low pressure system will continue to slowly move north through the Desert southwest into Thursday resulting in variable cloudiness and a threat of showers and thunderstorms.
1035 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016 A large low pressure system over northern Indiana will drift very slowly south into Kentucky.
807 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016 A cold front has dropped south across eastern KY this hour and resides across the far SE portions of the state. A cold front was located over the far NW portion of the JKL forecast area at mid afternoon, and was moving SE. Showers were occurring near and behind the front, with thunderstorms further northwest over IN where colder air aloft was located near an upper low center. Instability wanes again on Thursday night, and models agree on a dry slot of sorts wrapping around the upper low, with the result being most precip drying up during the night. Very blocky pattern will continue into the upcoming weekend with the upper level low continuing to spin over the Ohio river valley.
607 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016 Issued at 3:48 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016 The cold front that moved through this morning is well to the south now, leaving us with northerly winds and drier conditions for the next few days. Tomorrow, the nearly stacked low pressure system centered over Indiana will continue to move slowly south, keeping us on the back- end side of the system with northerly winds.
1205 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016 Aviation A large area of low pressure will remain anchored over the Great Lakes through much of the weekend. of the upper low as it tracks across Michigan and south to Indiana. This is in response to a short wave pivoting around the upper low that's anchored over indiana.
/issued 231 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016/ Water vapor imagery shows the center of a closed mid-upper low drifting south across northwest Indiana early this afternoon. This has forced another surge of a cooler air into our area. The cold front is seen in surface observations nearing the Red River as of early afternoon. Cooler temperatures and stronger north- northeasterly winds are present behind the front. Mid-upper ridging will be in place for the rest of the week and then gradually deamplify this weekend.
650 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016 A well amplified upper level pattern remains in place across the CONUS this afternoon, with satellite imagery showing areas of low pressure spinning over the Midwest region and over southern CA. In between, ridging extends north from high pressure near the TX/Mexico border into central Canada, with north-northwesterly flow over the Central Plains. At the surface, a frontal boundary sits south of the CWA, while high pressure sits over the Northern Plains.
High pressure at the surface and aloft is expected to lead to precipitation free and very warm conditions for Independence Day.
A high pressure ridge bisects the coast coast waters.
358 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 Warm front this evening. Waves of low pressure with convection Independence Day and night.
1235 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016 A pattern shift begins today where we'll see the semi stationary front along the front range move out on the high plains. An increasing zonal pattern will focus a better chance for precip across the Dakotas and warmer temperatures return.
A seasonably strong low pressure system will ride along a stationary front across West Virginia on Monday, bringing widespread heavy rain for Independence Day south of the Mason- Dixon line, and spottier rain chances north of I-70.
Upper air analysis this morning showed zonal to slightly anticyclonic flow across the southern part of the country at 250mb with a weak trough at 500mb over north Texas. The mid-level trough will move away and the ridge will become dominant.
359 PM PDT SUN JUL 3 2016 High pressure over the region will weaken through the holiday weekend and allow for temperatures to lower to near average. The marine layer remains elevated to near 2000 ft but has had little low level onshore surface flow to help push cooler air into the San Joaquin Valley.
Models showing high pressure to the east of the region keeping its influence on southern Wisconsin during this period. It should also be a bit more humid, as dew points rise into the lower 60s during the afternoon.
140 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 Dry weather will continue today as high pressure controls our weather.
However, upper level ridging is providing ample subsidence to inhibit any organized shower and thunderstorm active for the next few days.
(Issued 1036 AM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016) Temps are running a few degrees warmer than yesterday with 15Z obs reporting in the upper 80s and the hotspot is in Winchester at 90 degrees already! Upper-level clouds ahead of the storm system located in the mid- Mississippi Valley will stream into the forecast area throughout the day. Also slightly lowered POPs as coverage will be more so isolated across the forecast area through this afternoon as we remain at the northern edge of the upper-level ridge.
Winds will be from the south, with the higher speeds and gusts at KABI and KSJT. Associated weak cold front will sag south to near our northwestern border counties by this evening. Surface dewpoints this afternoon are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s across the eastern part of our area, but should drop into the lower 60s across our far western counties as the low- level flow veers somewhat toward the southwest.
/issued 359 AM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016/ The upper trough moving through Kansas and front slowly moving into northern Oklahoma this morning will help maintain rain and thunderstorms across northern Oklahoma through mid-day. Some development southward into central Oklahoma is also expected given the low-level jet. Model trends show that the upper ridge doesn't build quite as strongly over Oklahoma for the rest of the week, so low pops remain in the forecast. The next best chance for rain appears at the end of the week when a large scale upper trough moves into the Great Basin.
151 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016 Cloud cover and precipitation from the lingering activity from the overnight in southeast Kansas will diminish the potential to get as high as initially thought, so the highs were tweaked. As this wave moves eastward this morning, the low-level jet is progged to gradually veer to southwesterly, which should shift the heaviest rainfall over far southeast Kansas by daybreak, before pushing east of there by late morning. Widespread convective outflow and considerable cloudiness should lead to a cooler than normal early July day today. Given skies clear out tonight behind the front, areas of radiation fog may develop underneath the low-level ridge axis with light winds/clear skies across central and south-central Kansas.
340 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 Low pressure will move into the western part of the Ohio Valley late Monday. This storm system will push a warm front north toward the forecast area during the day Monday. A warm front to the south of the forecast area will begin to lift north. A warm front will continue to move northward on Monday as low pressure enters the western Ohio valley.
322 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 Fair weather is expected tonight through Monday as high pressure remains anchored to our south.
349 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through the week while a low pressure trough persists inland. A bit more convergence exists across inland areas closer to a piedmont trough. Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough of low pressure will prevail at the surface this period while strong high pressure aloft persists centered to the southeast. Isolated showers and some thunderstorms are also expected near the coast overnight as the higher instability shifts offshore and convergence increases with the nocturnal surging.
528 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 Low pressure will return rain chances to the Upper Ohio region for Monday. Precipitation probabilities will remain focused in that area until advancing low pressure shunts the frontal boundary northward toward the I 70 corridor on Monday. Given low pressure track inconsistencies, rain chances over the I 80 corridor are limited, but can't be eliminated.
517 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016 For this evening, the next crop of showers and tstms which have formed over the higher terrain of sern CO and nern NM will continue movg esewd and affect at least parts of the western and perhaps central zones this evening.
141 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 A pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the northern Gulf of Mexico through the week. A weak pressure trough will linger near the forecast area. Rest of this afternoon, Water Vapor Imagery shows upper level high pressure centered across the Florida panhandle. High pressure in the Atlantic will continue to feed low level moisture into the region. Tonight, The models keep the frontal boundary just north of the forecast area with a weak pressure trough in the area. Flat upper ridging should continue. Surface ridging should continue to extend from the Atlantic westward into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Farther north in the forecast area, the models show lee-side troughing continuing.
432 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 Fair weather is expected tonight through Monday as high pressure remains anchored to our south.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): Hot and dry conditions will prevail across Deep South Texas through the forecast period as mid level ridging continues overhead. High temperatures will range from the low 90s at the beaches to a handful several degrees above the century mark across the west Monday afternoon.
Surface analysis this morning places a warm front from southern Missouri, southern Illinois, and Middle Tennessee. Dewpoints range from the lower 60s on the cooler side of the boundary in Paris to the mid 70s in Clarksdale. Expect highs in the lower 90s north to mid 90s south with heat index values in the low 100s across at least the Delta region. A weak mid level trough will approach the region with showers and thunderstorms concentrated mainly to the NW of the Mid-South. Meanwhile a weak mid level trough will move across the Mid- South. Airmass will become fairly unstable Monday with SBCAPES approaching 2000 j/kg, lifted index values of -4C to -6C and dewpoints in the lower 70s. Weak trough will have mid level winds of 25-30 kts providing some shear.
354 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 A slow moving warm front to our south will gradually work north through Monday as a wave of low pressure rides along the front. The greatest chance for rain will be near and south of the highway 24 corridor with lesser chances to the north. The upper air flow should become west/southwest aloft later this week and allow short wave energy to move across the area as a longwave trof amplifies along the west CONUS.
Forcing associated with the low pressure system in the Midwest will stay mainly to our north tonight and tomorrow. As the low begins to move into the Ohio Valley tomorrow morning, falling 500 mb heights and a strengthening 850 mb wind of 30-40 kts will support better forcing and higher rain chances through the day. Will still keep pops in the chance range tomorrow with the northern sections on the higher end of that range, similar to the NAM.
Synoptic Setup: Hot high pressure currently exists over the Four Corners and Intermoutnain West. A weak ridge runs north out of this airmass through eastern Montana and Saskatchewan. A alrge trough runs down the coast of Alaska and British Columbia.
Each day of the coming week will see a chance for at least isolated storm activity as models slower and less aggressive with building ridge.
103 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 Expansive high pressure across the region will maintain light e-se winds today. Outside of the high clouds, diurnal heating is again resulting in the development of an alto cu field. Upper trough over eastern Canada/northeast CONUS will shift to the east and northeast as two centers wobble around each other.
628 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 High pressure ridging will maintain mostly dry weather over the area through Monday night.
Temps tonight will be a degree or two warmer than last night, but with clear skies, low dewpoint, and light winds will allow for cooling into the upper 40s/low 50s.
353 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016 Weak cold front/wind shift has advanced to just south and east of forecast area. Nevertheless, there remains a low chance that convection initiating in the higher terrain of southeast CO and northeast NM could grow upscale and reach the northern and northeastern zones late. After which, A broadening region of high pressure will build over Texas.
654 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 A stationary front to our south will gradually work north into southern Indiana on Monday as a wave of low pressure rides along the front. This may bring a few showers to locations south of the highway 24 corridor Monday. The upper air flow should become west/southwest aloft later this week and allow short wave energy to move across the area as a longwave trof amplifies along the west CONUS.
Tonight Through Monday A closed upper low pressure center aloft over north central British Columbia has a rather strong upper level jet associated with it extending across the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies with zonal west flow across western and central Wyoming. Monday Night THROUGH Sunday A closed upper low pressure center aloft over north central British Columbia has a rather strong upper level jet associated with it extending across the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies with zonal west flow across western and central Wyoming will stall out and be the main weather producer over the area through the week and into the weekend. the cooling mainly over the north will be enhanced by rather dry cold fronts moving south possibly as far south as Casper in the east.
313 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 Low amplitude trough becoming increasingly entrained within prevailing westerlies as it enters the Ohio Valley will skirt harmlessly to the south through Monday. Increasing southerly flow and a warmer column will be largely offset by associated cloud cover, particularly over the southern CWA. Slightly better moisture over the western portion of the Lower Peninsula is modeled to creep eastward during the day and may result in just enough instability for a few brief rain showers, particularly as a weak PV anomaly indicated by dynamic tropopause plots swings through in the afternoon.
Broken midlevel clouds are expected overnight with a low pressure system tracking north of the area.
/issued 244 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016/ It is very hot today and will only get hotter tomorrow as an upper level ridge sits firmly over the area.
A weak front will move through this evening with the only noticeable change being slightly cooler temperatures for Monday.
The latest satellite imagery was showing a low pressure system advancing slowly east through British Columbia (BC) early this afternoon with a mostly dry WNW flow aloft increasing across SRN Idaho. The low stalls over central BC Monday resulting in a fairly strong WSW flow across the region.
135 PM PDT SUN JUL 3 2016 A weak low pressure trough aloft, and onshore flow will maintain dry and seasonal weather this week. The global models show weak, but persistent troughing along the West Coast this week. The latest GFS builds a flat ridge back north of 30N latitude, while the ECMWF is maintaining better longwave troughing over the West. This tips the scales more to a cooler and dry forecast with a moderate marine layer west of the mountains.
329 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016 Current synopsis shows a weak upper level trough passing across the mid Mississippi Valley while the Bermuda ridge is extending westward across the Gulf of Mexico. The local area will not see any appreciable impact from that trough. So for the next several days, it appears at least a low end rain chance will be possible each day as dewpoints should still be in the lower to mid 70s and pw's around 1.
Temperatures are running slightly cooler this morning. Looks for another beautiful summer day throughout the interior A trough will remain over the west coast and will keep moderate flow through the delta and a deeper marine layer along the coast.
341 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 High pressure ridging will maintain mostly dry weather over the area through Monday night.
1117 AM MDT SUN JUL 3 2016 ne pac upper trough will continue to support several impulses into the region in the period, supporting sct-isold shra/ts. Hires models suggest convection will fire in the northern/central hills early this afternoon slowly pushing ese onto the plains, with other shra/ts developing along the slow moving trough. Much warmer conds expected for Monday given slightly drier air in place and general westerly flow, with 90s on track for most areas outside the Black Hills. Zonal flow aloft will transition to southwest flow heading into the middle of the week as an upper low moves into the Pac NW. Models are showing better chances for precip Wed and Thu as the Pac NW upper low approaches the nrn plains.
235 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 Warm front this evening. Waves of low pressure with convection Independence Day and night.
Any significant atmospheric moisture is now confined to the lower levels.
This appears to be in response to some thermal mid/upper level troughing over the eastern cwa.
654 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through the week while a low pressure trough persists inland. A bit more convergence exists across inland areas closer to a piedmont trough. Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough of low pressure will prevail at the surface this period while strong high pressure aloft persists centered to the southeast. Isolated showers and some thunderstorms are also expected near the coast overnight as the higher instability shifts offshore and convergence increases with the nocturnal surging.
357 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016 (Tonight and Monday) A weak cold front is moving into the Big Country and is forecast to slowly sag south through the evening hours. High resolution models are indicating isolated shower and thunderstorm development late this afternoon/evening along and just behind the aforementioned cold front.
224 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 High pressure over Pennsylvania will drift off the east coast by early Monday.
1157 AM MDT SUN JUL 3 2016 Storm development is initiating and is not sticking to the higher terrain as initially thought. Storms are expected to redevelop after 11 am, initially over the higher terrain before drifting over valley locations in the early afternoon and evening as outflow boundaries interact and generate new storms like what happened yesterday. Expect most activity on Monday to be over the higher terrain and higher valleys of western Colorado with lesser chance across eastern Utah and far western Colorado.
137 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 High pressure will be over the region through Monday.
256 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 A seasonably strong low pressure system will ride along a stationary front across West Virginia on Monday, bringing widespread heavy rain for Independence Day south of the Mason- Dixon line, and spottier rain chances north of I-70.
215 PM MDT SUN JUL 3 2016 Currently across the Tri-State area there is an upper level trough beginning to move east out of the region. As the trough continues to move east through the area clouds will begin to decrease. A ridge will move over the CWA Monday in the wake of the exiting trough. This will bring with it warmer temperatures in the 90s. Starting Monday night, the ridge gets pushed to the east fairly quickly with a trough starting to push in from the west.
Current Situation and Analysis -- Weak to moderate ridging prevails through most of the lower and middle troposphere amidst a moist and very unstable atmosphere with weak convective inhibition. Currently, air temperatures are in the lower 90s in most Keys island communities, with dewpoint temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. Low/mid-level ridging will persist with east-southeasterly flow, and occasional subtle/weak low-level, migratory perturbations. A high pressure cell will build gradually westward from the western North Atlantic, to the central Florida Peninsula, tonight through the Fourth of July.
Additional showers/storms will fire late tonight, as a cold front moves into the state. Today Through Monday Night Morning surface analysis shows low pressure over the Panhandles region of Texas and Oklahoma, with a stationary frontal boundary extending into northeast Oklahoma and southern Missouri. In the upper levels, low pressure was coming off the southern Rockies. The front should sink into central Arkansas on Monday, before hitting upper ridging and stalling out.
Water vapor imagery shows upper high over Northern Mexico, with a weak TUTT south of Brownsville. High pressure aloft will predominate through the period with hot and dry conditions continuing.
301 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 Warm front this evening. Waves of low pressure with convection Independence Day and night.
Axis of low-mid level ridge will have built northward to between Lake Okeechobee and Cape Canaveral. Both 00Z GFS and ECMWF build the upper ridge over FL mid week (596 dm at 500 mb) which will increase the subsidence and drying and result in lower storm coverage. GFS shows some weak troughing aloft developing along/offshore the southeast US by Fri which weakens the ridge aloft over FL. This would allow a higher coverage of aftn/eve storms to return but the ECMWF maintains the ridge over FL leading to a continuation of hot conditions and lower storm coverage. Little change indicated with the wind pattern as the Atlantic high pressure ridge oscillates between about Cape Canaveral and Lake Okeechobee.
159 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 A slow moving warm front to our south will gradually work north through Monday as a wave of low pressure rides along the front. The greatest chance for rain will be near and south of the highway 24 corridor with lesser chances to the north. This is where best low level jet will be focused near warm frontal boundary and greatest moisture flux. This brings between a half and one inch of rain into our area from near Marion to Kalida and south as warm front inches northward. Warm front to likely move north into our southeast forecast area Monday while sfc wave moves along boundary.
A pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the northern Gulf of Mexico through the week. A weak pressure trough will linger near the forecast area. Rest of this afternoon, Water Vapor Imagery shows upper level high pressure centered across the Florida panhandle. High pressure in the Atlantic will continue to feed low level moisture into the region. Tonight, The models keep the frontal boundary just north of the forecast area with a weak pressure trough in the area. Flat upper ridging should continue. Surface ridging should continue to extend from the Atlantic westward into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Farther north in the forecast area, the models show lee-side troughing continuing.
211 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 Aviation An area of high pressure centered over Lower Michigan will track east today and off the Mid Atlantic states on Monday. This will allow a low pressure system to track eastward up the Ohio Valley Today into Monday. The main challenge in the short term deals with the risk for showers associated with the wave of low pressure that tracks up the Ohio Valley.
244 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016 It is very hot today and will only get hotter tomorrow as an upper level ridge sits firmly over the area.
Then it will gradually turn cooler into the work week. A series of weak cold fronts are expected to produce periods of breezy weather, especially today.
Highs each day will be in the lower to middle 90s with heat indicates approaching 100 degrees in the Piedmont, not as hot in the mountains of course.