Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST KEEPING A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL FROM THE MID 70S ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF TAMPA BAY TO THE LOWER 80S INLAND CENTRAL AND SOUTH. WITH A BROAD U/L TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
INTO THE EVENING DUE TO COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE LAKES AND SOME MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND A BROAD TROUGH.
WITH A FEW CLOUDS ON MONDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH.
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A SUBSTANTIAL MID WEEK WARM UP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS SET UP AT THE SURFACE.
503 PM PDT SUN APR 3 2016 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE GATHERING ALONG AND NEAR THE CASCADES, SISKIYOUS, AND MARBLE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE COAST. THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE IS ALSO ON TRACK TO ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AT THE COAST, PUSHING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND DOES LOOK HEALTHY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. A DUSTING TO A COUPLE OF INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS EXPECTED ON THE HIGHER PEAKS. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING, WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS REACHING THE VALLEYS MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE IMPULSE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST SIDE- MAINLY THE UMPQUA BASIN.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION.
923 PM PDT SUN APR 3 2016 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING ANOTHER FAIR AND WARM DAY INLAND ON MONDAY. WHILE A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER CONTINUES AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST.
For tonight, temperatures will be a few degrees warmer with lows mainly in the 40s. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s.
A cold front will move thru NE OK/NW AR TAF sites by around midday Monday. /ISSUED 311 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016/ Cold front will slide across the area tonight however any post frontal cooling is expected to be minimal with sunny skies prevailing on Monday.
/issued 154 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016/ Northwest flow aloft between a west coast upper ridge/east coast upper trough will prevail over southeast New Mexico and west Texas for much of the coming week.
513 PM MDT SUN APR 3 2016 UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND BE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY.
THIS WARMTH WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING A COOL. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
USED 18Z MODEL RUNS TO MAKE SOME FINE-TUNING ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF PRECIP POTENTIAL AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. WITH LOW DEW POINTS TO BEGIN THE NIGHT THIS WILL SET UP A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE DEVELOPING AFTER SUNSET. DESPITE DEW POINTS GRADUALLY RISING WE SHOULD STILL SEE A 10 TO 15 DEGREE RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S IN OPEN AREAS OF THE BLUEGRASS REGION AND RIDGE TOPS IN THE HILLS. TO AS LOW AS THE LOWER 30S IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEY SPOTS. ON MONDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
639 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016 VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
/ISSUED 634 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016/ 00Z TAFS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OF THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD VERY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY MONDAY THE HIGH WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST THAT THE WINDS SHOULD START TO SHIFT OUT OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
A DRY UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT.
934 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. INTENSE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY. A WEAK UPPER S/WV - TROF FROM CNTRL QB WILL BRING SOME CLDNSS AND SCT FLURRIES/SN SHWRS ACROSS THE N TUE AFTN. THE OVERALL PICTURE IS IT'LL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OCCURRING FOR THE SHORT TERM AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
WITH LOW DEW POINTS TO BEGIN THE NIGHT THIS WILL SET UP A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE DEVELOPING AFTER SUNSET. DESPITE DEW POINTS GRADUALLY RISING WE SHOULD STILL SEE A 10 TO 15 DEGREE RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S IN OPEN AREAS OF THE BLUEGRASS REGION AND RIDGE TOPS IN THE HILLS. TO AS LOW AS THE LOWER 30S IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEY SPOTS. ON MONDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
1255 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY.
910 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016 HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NORTH ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. DESPITE THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE DENSE ENOUGH TO DIM THE STARS AT TIMES SOUTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA.
AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH CAME ACROSS THE ISLANDS AS A COLD FRONT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND HAS HALTED ITSELF ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS ATTM. GENERALLY THE HIGHEST REPORTED ARE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS. THE LOW TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 56 DEGREES.
High pressure has moved into the region and a cool dry air mass is in place.
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED WEST OF BAKER COUNTY AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT HAVE REACHED THE OREGON COAST THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO SOUTHEAST OREGON AROUND 09Z MONDAY AND INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO AROUND 15Z. ONE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND THE OTHER ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK VORT-MAX CURRENTLY EAST OF RENO. ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF BAKER COUNTY THROUGH ABOUT MON/06Z. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY.
828 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER MTNS AND THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. QUITE MILD FOR MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSES ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS OVER THE PLAINS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY EVENING WITH WIDELY SCTD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND IT.
TEMPS WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION, VERY LIGHT -RA MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES BUT NO REDUCTION IN CAT IS EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NORTH ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. DESPITE THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRUSH BY NORTHERN UTAH MONDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEM IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MID LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN THIS EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN UT DURING THE AFTERNOON BRINGING A THREAT FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
1005 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1022 MILLIBARS) BLANKETING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. WITH A LIGHT EVENING ONSHORE WIND KEEPING COASTAL LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT.
CALM OR LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT INCREASING SOME ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO FAR N GA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH MINIMUM MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.
N/NE WINDS WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR AS YET ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WITH LOTS OF LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
1155 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2016 Breezy southwesterly winds and relative humidity values in the lower 20 percent range will continue extreme fire weather conditions for the remainder of the afternoon for much of the area. A cooler day is expected on Monday as an upper trough dives into the Ohio Valley, ushering in cooler and drier air upon northeasterly surface winds.
CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
622 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015 MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO AND SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE SATELLITE AND RADAR PICTURES HAVE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW SILL OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL WYOMING RIGHT NOW. MODELS ACTUALLY SHOW THE CENTER OF THE UPPER CLOSED LOW TO BE RIGHT OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO AT 18Z MONDAY.
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A VERY WEAK WARM FRONT HAD LIFTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THIS MORNING. AS WELL AS WESTERN NEBRASKA CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. ESPECIALLY AS A REINFORCING WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER WY WITH A SHORT WAVE OVER OK. TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN IA BY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL JET ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MN TONIGHT THEN SHIFT EAST SUN. MOST OF THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STAYS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. RAIN SO FAR HAS BEEN SLOW TO SHIFT NORTHWARD HOWEVER AS FORCING WITH UPPER LOW APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT EXPECT RAIN TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND LIFT NORTHWARD.
553 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015 UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING CONTINUES TO WRAP MOISTURE AROUND THE BACK SIDE AND INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS FINALLY BEING KICKED OUT BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVING TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT A NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN TO THE CONVECTION ONCE THE SUN SET TOMORROW AS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN WITH A TRANSITORY RIDGE ARRIVING IN THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN.
CURRENT ANALYSIS REVEALS IMPRESSIVE NORTHWARD GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP (AND A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF) THE MS RIVER AXIS WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. LATEST HRRR HIRES OUTPUT SUGGESTS AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN (AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT) ASSOCIATED WITH SAID TROUGH WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BE EXITING TO THE EAST BY DAYBREAK.
ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY STABLE WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF JACKSONVILLE. PERSISTENT SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN AND A SMALL WEAK INVERTED TROUGH SETUP JUST OFFSHORE WILL DEVELOP ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
STRONG COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH CENTER NEAR CRAIG COLORADO OCCLUDING WITH STRONG DEFORMATION AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES UP TO 1 INCH AN HOUR OVER EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY. DRY SLOT EAST AND NORTHEAST OF UPPER LOW CENTER BECOMING UNSTABLE WITH RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. FORCING WILL BE NEAR THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST FA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. PLAN TO GO WITH HIGH POPS FOR TONIGHT NEAR THE TROUGH WITH LOWER POPS AFTER 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. POPS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIFT NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST INTO THE FA AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FA. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH STORMS INITIATING NEAR THE TROUGH IN THE WATCH AREA AND STORM MOTION 10 TO 15KTS. TROUGH SHOULD BE TRANSITIONING EASTWARD AND WITH SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN BEGIN TROUGH AXIS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE A FAIRLY DEEP MARINE LAYER.
623 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015 SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE LOW INTO WEST TX. DRY SLOT WRAPPING INTO THE UPPER LOW HAS ALLOWED PART OF WESTERN NEBRASKA TO SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND OPEN UP. BY TOMORROW MODELS HAVE 2 UPPER LEVEL LOWS. TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPLITS AND ONE CENTERS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL AS FREEZING LEVELS LOWER.
708 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015 UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A VERY WEAK WARM FRONT HAD LIFTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THIS MORNING. AS WELL AS WESTERN NEBRASKA CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. ESPECIALLY AS A REINFORCING WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT.
1236 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND INTRODUCE MORE SUMMER LIKE. BUT WITH A POWERFUL UPPER RIDGE RAPIDLY BUILDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AS WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS. WITH THE WARMER AIR MASS IN PLACE MONDAY.
603 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015 THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BE ON THE MOVE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL TRANSLATE SOUTH OF THE MAIN LOW AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THRU MONDAY. THE NAM TRIES TO DEVELOP STORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND CANNOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THIS EITHER. THE FORECAST TURNS MORE INTERESTING ON MONDAY WITH BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW REACHES NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
1000 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE REGION. A SHIELD OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES N PLACE OVERNIGHT. DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE.
DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN AS 5H RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
947 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER WY WITH A SHORT WAVE OVER OK. TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN IA BY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL JET ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MN TONIGHT THEN SHIFT EAST SUN. MOST OF THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STAYS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. RAIN SO FAR HAS BEEN SLOW TO SHIFT NORTHWARD HOWEVER AS FORCING WITH UPPER LOW APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT EXPECT RAIN TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND LIFT NORTHWARD.
MAKING IT ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WAS OVER COLORADO/WYOMING. WITH THE STRONG IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA.
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL MAINTAIN NEAR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH AMPLE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS.
1226 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH THIS EVENING AND WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY.
/ISSUED 233 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015/ DESPITE THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST FOR THIS COMING WEEK THE H5 TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY AROUND -8C FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE WEEK SINCE THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
Shear remains high both in the deep layer and low levels, with low level shear increasing over the next few hours as the low level jet increases. The good news is that this system continues to accelerate to the northeast, most likely exiting before the low level jet begins to peak. Given the strength of the low level shear and presence of more than ample low level CAPE the risk for isolated tornadoes will continue into the evening across south central Missouri. Another round of moderate to heavy rainfall will overspread much of the area this evening with the highest rates across south central Missouri.
740 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH THIS EVENING AND WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MEMORIAL DAY.
820 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS ALLOWED FOR PLEASANT CONDITIONS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS CONTINUED TO PULL EAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR WARMING CONDITIONS ALONG WITH RISING HUMIDITY. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO BECOME DISLODGED MONDAY ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO PUSH EAST AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING LOWER END INSTABILITY WITH K INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
1131 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015 SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE LOW INTO WEST TX. DRY SLOT WRAPPING INTO THE UPPER LOW HAS ALLOWED PART OF WESTERN NEBRASKA TO SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND OPEN UP. BY TOMORROW MODELS HAVE 2 UPPER LEVEL LOWS. TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPLITS AND ONE CENTERS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL AS FREEZING LEVELS LOWER.
938 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015 LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE A FAIRLY DEEP MARINE LAYER.
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
833 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015 LINE OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR BATON ROUGE SOUTH NEAR THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THE PATTERN OF DISTURBANCES ROLLING IN FROM THE EAST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL KEEP THE GULF MOISTURE FLOWING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NUMBER OF IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH. A BROAD AREA OF LEE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A MESO LOW ALONG THE OK/AR BORDER. THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE LIFTS ACROSS EASTERN KS BUT WITH THE HIGHER PW'S AND BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING THE HIGH RAINFALL RATES WE GOT LAST NIGHT. LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE HIGHER END SEVERE BUT WITH THAT MUCH INSTABILITY.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 65 81 68 83 / 20 60 50 70 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 63 82 67 82 / 10 50 40 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 62 81 67 82 / 10 50 40 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 56 81 63 79 / 0 30 30 50.
SHOULD MAINTAIN A S AND SE BREEZING ON HILLTOPS AND RIDGES THROUGH THE NIGHT. DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN AS 5H RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER MUCH OF THE SERN US WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. IN BETWEEN WAS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE MS RVR VALLEY THAT WAS ROTATING ARND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LOW. MORE SHRA AND TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTN AS AN UPPER TROF EDGES CLOSER TO THE TN VALLEY. 07 /ISSUED 225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEPARTING UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD OFF THE FL COAST, WITH A RATHER EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW CHURNING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WAS A LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE WRN GOMEX AS FAR NORTH AS THE HIGH PLAINS.
AFTER A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD NEAR PERSISTENCE OR EVEN COOL SLIGHTLY AS AN UPPER LOW SETTLES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGHING TO OUR NORTH MAY ACT TO DEEPEN AN ALREADY DEEP MARINE LAYER.
950 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 BASIC WX PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED AS A STRONG HI PRES RIDGE OVER THE ERN SEABOARD REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. ONLY WITH SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE LOW LVLS. POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS A DEEP HI PRES RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MAINTAINS A STEADY MODERATE TO FRESH ERLY BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC OVERNIGHT.
THE JET WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA SO THE HIGHER POPS THERE LOOK GOOD. ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES CLOSEST TO UPPER RIDGE AXIS. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MODELS SUGGEST PERIODIC WAVES WILL EJECT ACROSS THE AREA OUT OF A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES.
739 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE US DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. EARLY MONDAY A WARM FRONT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA BUT BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
1047 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS ALLOWED FOR PLEASANT CONDITIONS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS CONTINUED TO PULL EAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR WARMING CONDITIONS ALONG WITH RISING HUMIDITY. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST AND FLOW OVER OHIO VALLEY BACKING SRLY LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NE TO THE UPPER 60S SW. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO BECOME DISLODGED MONDAY ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO PUSH EAST AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING LOWER END INSTABILITY WITH K INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AS OF 03Z. THE FORECAST FOR MEMORIAL DAY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. BUT DO LITTLE BY WAY OF USHERING IN ANY COOLER AIRMASS TEMPERATURES OR REDUCTION IN ML AND UL THICKNESSES. HERALDING A RETURN TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE ROCKIES DURING THE MORNING.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI KEEPS A STRONG GRADIENT IN PLACE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN WARMER TEMPS AND MORE MIXING THAN INDICATED BY MOST OF THE MODELS. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW LEVELS HAVE WARMED AND MOISTENED. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF ANY ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE OVER SE MISSOURI LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
755 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL CREATE A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE REGION. DEEPER LAYER FORCING VIA A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING NE OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OR ALL OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG THE WARM FRONT /EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION TO NEW YORK STATE/. POPS WILL BE HELD IN THE LOW CHC /30 PCT/ RANGE.