Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 251 PM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021/ Northwest flow aloft continues across the Mid-South downstream of the anomalous ridge over the Intermountain West. This ridge is quite strong with 500 mb geopotential heights among max climatological values across NV/UT. Meanwhile, a fairly strong trough is digging over the Great Lakes leading to a +PNA synoptic pattern. In the near-term, the trough digging across the Great lakes will send a weak cold front through the Mid-South tomorrow. Low-level moisture return ahead of this system will be scant, but we do anticipate an uptick in column moisture along/ahead of the cold front with a band of PWATs near 1. The western ridge shifts a bit eastward over the Southern Rockies by the end of the week, finally breaking down late in the weekend and allowing the westerlies to sink farther south across the CONUS.
Tonight through Wednesday: A cold front will quickly shift east of the area by early evening; however, the upper-level trough axis will shift slowly eastward through late Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise, the increased cloud cover and scattered precipitation will allow for cooler high temperatures on Wednesday, mainly in the mid 60s to around 70.
216 PM MST Tue Sep 7 2021 Strong high pressure aloft will be the predominant weather feature across the Southwestern U. Daily high temperatures will mostly range from 105 to 108 degrees across the Arizona lower deserts to a couple of degrees warmer across southeast California and southwest Arizona. An expansive and anomalous anticyclone across the Great Basin will gradually slide east and south over the next several days.
GOES visible satellite imagery show some more robust cumulus growth towards the I-80 corridor coincident with a warm front and an environment of modest instability (MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg). Look for Cu field (and any showers) to dissipate towards sunset with loss of instability and as the warm front pushes north. In a pattern typically reminiscent of autumn, low pressure undergoing cyclogenesis over Hudson Bay will allow for a cold front to propagate eastward over the Ohio Valley during the day on Wednesday.
645 PM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021 The cold front is currently along a Kirksville to Kansas City line and moving southeast.
612 PM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021 A cold front swept through this morning and brought scattered showers across the area. Early this afternoon, the cold front was well off to the east of the area stretching from northeastern Wisconsin curving through southeastern Iowa. Then temperatures increase into the lower 70s by the afternoon with mostly sunny skies and a few developing cumulus clouds.
Isolated showers and storms are along a cold front in the eastern Texas Panhandle. Cold front, currently located roughly along a DHT-PYX axis, is pushing south and should clear the CWA this evening. This bit of moisture may allow an updraft or two to survive as low level convergence occurs along the front, with the southeastern Texas Panhandle favored - temperatures aloft appear too warm for convection farther west due to the influence of a stout upper high over UT. Unfortunately for fans of cooler weather, the atmosphere should dry out following the frontal passage, so few clouds are expected. Additionally, the UT upper high will begin to shift southeastward over the Four Corners, with heights building aloft a bit compared to Tuesday.
533 PM MDT Tue Sep 7 2021 The main upper level ridge will continue to keep its grip on the area during the next couple of days.
517 PM MDT Tue Sep 7 2021 Temperatures have been slower to warm today due to cooler air behind last night's cold front and the increase in smoke today. Not much change in the weather for Wednesday as the upper level high over the Great Basin dominates the weather pattern.
Lows in the upper 40s to the lower 50s look good. The gusty northwest winds occurring today will diminish this evening with the loss of daytime heating and as the high settles in. Rather warm air makes its way into the region as the western CONUS ridge begins to move over the plains.
Otherwise, a rather mild night as dewpoints have returned to the lower 70s this evening, which will limit cooling despite the clear skies. It still appears as if an amplifying mid-level trough will dig southeastward through the western/central Great Lakes overnight, with a stronger cold front related to this northern stream trough expected to enter the northwest portion of the forecast area by mid- afternoon Wednesday. Although the northward extent of deeper moisture will be limited by the development of a closed upper low over the northern Gulf of Mexico, sufficient low-level moisture (indicated by PWAT values increasing to 1.
615 PM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021 A cold front will move southeast across our region late tonight into early Wed morning. High temps will be in the lower 80s.
A cold front is expected to push southeast into Northeast Oklahoma this evening and across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas overnight tonight. A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms across primarily northeast Oklahoma during the early to mid evening remain a possibility, with winds being the most likely severe threat given the high instability and fairly weak wind fields. After the cooler temperatures tomorrow, the afternoon mercury seemingly has nowhere to go but up, as the upper level ridging currently over the western United States builds eastward into the Southern Plains through the weekend.
620 PM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021 After the slight chances for late day convection as mentioned above along the cold front in southeast Kansas, much drier and somewhat cooler air will advect south across Kansas tonight through Wednesday.
754 PM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021 A cold front will provide a chance of precipitation late tonight into Wednesday. Cooler temperatures and dry weather will following the front late this week into the weekend. Cold front draped across the central Great Lakes back into central Illinois this evening will shift east overnight into Wednesday. Amplified mid level flow with mean trof over the Great Lakes and a ridge over the west.
High pressure across the region will give way to a weak low aloft and a surface front this evening.
544 PM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021 Surface observations show strongest wind gusts in the 30-35 mph range, largely along and north of the Highway 14 corridor, with wind speeds expected to decrease into the evening hours. Otherwise, early afternoon satellite imagery shows very little in the way of clouds across the region on the backside of the upper-level trough.
Temperatures have been slower to warm today due to cooler air behind last night's cold front and the increase in smoke today. Not much change in the weather for Wednesday as the upper level high over the Great Basin dominates the weather pattern.
Isolated thunderstorms continue to wax and wane in the lee of the Lower Keys. A weak and broad ridge will persist across the Florida Keys coastal waters through the end of the week, resulting in continued light to gentle breezes.
Light east to southeast winds will shift from the northeast 12-16Z tomorrow with the arrival of a weak cold front. Lows tonight are expected to be similar to the last few nights, in the 60s and lower 70s for most, with some upper 50s possible across the higher terrain. The upper pattern will become increasingly amplified Wednesday as a deepening trough over the Great Lakes region sends a weak cold front south across the Plains and across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas early in the day on Wednesday. Temperatures behind the front may only be a degree or two cooler than today, though convergence along this boundary will act as a focus for convection Wednesday afternoon, with isolated to widely scattered storms possible generally along and south of I-20.
1054 PM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021 A cold front will provide a chance of precipitation late tonight into Wednesday. Cooler temperatures and dry weather will following the front late this week into the weekend. Temperatures have dropped off into the lower 60s to lower 70s. With increasing cloud cover only have lows dropping into the low to middle 60s. Amplified mid level flow with mean trof over the Great Lakes and a ridge over the west.
This low stratus will likely linger until 14- 15Z, before finally eroding and categories returning to VFR status. A more significant cold front will push into northwest portions of the forecast area late Wednesday afternoon. It could bring a few showers, but drier deep layer air should limit deep convective potential in spite of temperatures reaching the lower 90s.
A broken line of thunderstorms developed ahead of the main cold front this afternoon and continues moving east/southeast through the center part of the cwa. There are isolated showers and thunderstorms developing along the main cold front across far northern IL currently.
557 PM PDT Tue Sep 7 2021 Updated air quality section Dry, hot weather to continue for the next few days across the San Joaquin Valley and Mojave Desert due to a strong ridge of high pressure.
CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 87 64 82 60 / 20 20 20 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 86 62 81 58 / 20 30 30 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 68 86 60 81 57 / 10 40 20 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 84 61 79 53 / 20 40 40 10 0.
Showers and a few thunderstorms continue to percolate across northern Wisconsin closer to the core of the upper low. Tomorrow is on track to be a breezy and cooler day with highs in the low to mid 70s. Boxell (Issued 310 PM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021) Tonight through Wednesday night: The line of storms along the 850mb cold front exited southeast WI and the surface front is lagging a little behind, but will clear southeast WI by 5 pm. Low pressure and associated upper low will very slowly move across Ontario tonight through Wednesday.
954 PM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021 After the slight chances for late day convection as mentioned above along the cold front in southeast Kansas, much drier and somewhat cooler air will advect south across Kansas tonight through Wednesday.
Light winds from the southeast becoming northeasterly behind a cold front by early morning and more easterly tomorrow afternoon. (Today through Thursday afternoon) The upper level ridge continues to dominate the western US with our area remaining on the eastern periphery.
This will result in decent spread of observed overnight lows across the forecast area early Wednesday morning, with lows ranging from the lower 60s over the Delta, to the lower 70s across Southeast Mississippi. A more significant cold front will push into northwest portions of the forecast area late Wednesday afternoon. It could bring a few showers, but drier deep layer air should limit deep convective potential in spite of temperatures reaching the lower 90s. Another front will drop south into the region Thursday as upper ridge will remain stagnant to our west and an upper trough takes up residence across the east. Temperatures will also be cooler with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s(even some upper 50s may be possible).
Temperatures have been slower to warm today due to cooler air behind last night's cold front and the increase in smoke today. Not much change in the weather for Wednesday as the upper level high over the Great Basin dominates the weather pattern. There is good agreement among ensemble guidance for an upper level ridge to push east into the region by Thursday. Agreement decreases into the weekend in the details of a few passing systems, but overall will see a return of showers/thunderstorm chances, mostly over the higher terrain.
1034 PM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021 Surface observations show strongest wind gusts in the 30-35 mph range, largely along and north of the Highway 14 corridor, with wind speeds expected to decrease into the evening hours. Otherwise, early afternoon satellite imagery shows very little in the way of clouds across the region on the backside of the upper-level trough. Under northwesterly flow aloft, upper level ridging and a southerly surface flow will allow for temperatures on Thursday to increase into the lower to mid 80s for areas west of I-29, and mid to upper 70s elsewhere.
Today Through Thursday Night A cold front is dropping south into the state early this Wed morning. Dewpts will drop into the 40s and 50s by this afternoon well behind the cold front as a NRLY breeze develops behind the front.
331 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - A few showers/storms later today into this evening - Cooler than normal pattern next few days - Warming up over the weekend - A few showers/storms later today into this evening Deep cyclonic flow persists today.
1126 PM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021 A cold front will move southeast across our region late tonight into early Wed morning. High temps will be in the lower 80s. High pressure will continue filtering into the area Wednesday night and be centered over the region by Thursday. While cooler will start filtering into the area Wednesday night, the coolest air will arrive on Thursday.
The next cold front is still progged to move into the northern CWA late tonight, sweeping down off the coast by tomorrow afternoon.
224 AM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 Upper level ridging was centered over the Great Basin while an upper low was noted north of Lake Superior per the 07Z water vapor imagery. At the surface, a high pressure system was building south through the plains with lower dewpoint temperatures gradually moving south.
LW Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 64 82 60 83 / 20 20 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 62 81 58 82 / 30 40 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 86 60 81 57 81 / 40 40 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 61 79 53 80 / 40 40 10 0 0.
236 AM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 As of 07z today, isolated to scattered convection continues to gradually march southeast ahead of an approaching surface cold front. After 18z, the cold front will be clear of the CWA, and precipitation chances will be done locally. Behind the cold front, skies will rapidly clear as the atmospheric column dries out. High temperatures today will reach the lower to middle 80s with overnight lows dropping into the middle 50s.
Cooler and drier air will move in for today and Thursday. Some lake effect rain showers are expected tonight into early Thursday morning as the cooler air overspreads the region. This morning/early afternoon convection was driven more by theta-e plume/middle to upper 60s surface dewpoints immediately in advance of attendant cold front and collocated eastern periphery of EML/higher mid level lapse rates with elevated storm mode. Otherwise long duration dry period as Great Basin mid level ridge retrogrades eastward with building heights across southern Great Lakes.
211 AM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 A high pressure will linger across the region today and Thursday behind yesterday's cold front. Cold air advection over warmer bodies of water could result in steam fog late Wednesday night into Thursday, reducing visibilities in the river valleys and near local lakes and ponds.
456 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021 Cooler and drier air will move in for today and Thursday. Some lake effect rain showers are expected tonight and Thursday as the cooler air overspreads the region. Storms associated with a cold front and upper level system have weakened and moved out of the area early this morning. Cooler and drier air will continue to spread over the area behind a cold front.
131 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021 A cold front will provide a chance of precipitation late tonight into Wednesday. Cooler temperatures and dry weather will following the front late this week into the weekend. Temperatures have dropped off into the lower 60s to lower 70s. With increasing cloud cover only have lows dropping into the low to middle 60s. Amplified mid level flow with mean trof over the Great Lakes and a ridge over the west.
1037 PM MDT Tue Sep 7 2021 The main upper level ridge will continue to keep its grip on the area during the next couple of days. The blocking pattern remaining the main feature through the early weekend and dry conditions continue across southeastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle.
245 AM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 A more amplified flow pattern has set up now with closed low over Ontario and ridge over Intermountain West. This has left region in cyclonic upper flow with subtle short wave troughs rotating around back side of trough. Have kept higher spotty rain threat in Wisconsin, closer to trough, but could skirt into neighboring counties as well. Mean ridge axis will shift east to close out the week before flattening as psuedo zonal flow sets up.
1000 PM MST Tue Sep 7 2021 Updated Aviation Strong high pressure aloft will be the predominant weather feature across the Southwestern U. Daily high temperatures will mostly range from 105 to 108 degrees across the Arizona lower deserts to a couple of degrees warmer across southeast California and southwest Arizona. An expansive and anomalous anticyclone across the Great Basin will gradually slide east and south over the next several days.
228 AM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 The overall pattern over the region remains a dry one, with a stout mid-level ridge over the western CONUS, and downstream trof over the Great Lakes. That western ridge does get pushed down a bit as it translates to the east on Thursday, but with heights still building across the Northern Plains. Mild temperatures for today will turn warmer on Thursday as that ridge pushes in a warmer airmass to the region. Overall, the model blend temps look okay but did tweak numbers up a tad in a couple areas where MOS guidance was warmer and looked better.
Isolated showers and storms are along a cold front in the eastern Texas Panhandle. Cold front, currently located roughly along a DHT-PYX axis, is pushing south and should clear the CWA this evening. This bit of moisture may allow an updraft or two to survive as low level convergence occurs along the front, with the southeastern Texas Panhandle favored - temperatures aloft appear too warm for convection farther west due to the influence of a stout upper high over UT. Unfortunately for fans of cooler weather, the atmosphere should dry out following the frontal passage, so few clouds are expected.
A broken line of thunderstorms developed ahead of the main cold front this afternoon and continues moving east/southeast through the center part of the cwa. There are isolated showers and thunderstorms developing along the main cold front across far northern IL currently. As cooler air spreads across the Great Lakes region Wednesday night into Thursday morning, there will be a chance for lake effect rain showers across northwest IN, mainly Porter County. cms 325 AM CDT Wednesday night and Thursday, upper-level troughing and seasonably cool mid-level temperatures will lead to partly cloudy skies, northwest winds, and highs in the mid 70s. The trough will finally get the boot eastward Thursday evening. Lows Wednesday and Thursday nights will fall into the low to mid 50s.
GOES imagery and isobaric analysis shows a deep low centered across Ontario with a cold front and associated mid/upper trough extending southward through the Great Lakes. Latest guidance and trends indicate that some light precip ahead of the cold front will reach east-central and perhaps far NW PA by dawn, but should be scattered and light in nature. Look for the frontal convection to cross the Pittsburgh metro from late morning to early afternoon, and then the ridges by mid-afternoon. Precipitation will taper off across the area after sunset as the cold front clears the forecast area and much drier air filters in behind it.
420 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021 A weak area of low pressure is expected to develop over the central Gulf of Mexico today and move northeast into the northeast gulf waters by tonight.
218 AM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 An amplified pattern over North America with a robust upper ridge centered over Utah and a broad trough over the eastern CONUS anchored by an upper low over eastern Ontario is allowing a cold front to push southward through the southern Plains this morning. Progged thickness values suggest highs about 2-5 degrees cooler than yesterday with a wind switch from south/southwest to east/northeast likely supporting another 2-4 degrees of cooling for much of the forecast area, especially to the west of the Caprock escarpment. Return to a southerly component to the low level flow tonight will not be quick enough to bring meaningful low level moisture back into the forecast area.
1202 AM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021 A cold front will drop south through the state overnight through Wed. Today Through Thursday An upper ridge continues over the western U. with an upper trough over the Great Lakes. The ridge will only move slightly east through Thursday. A cold front in southeast Kansas this afternoon will move into north Arkansas tonight and through the state Wednesday. High pressure then builds over the state behind the front Wednesday night and Thursday. Low dew points and cooler air will continue into Thursday. Highs will reach the lower 80s to lower 90s Wednesday and mid 80s to lower 90s Thursday.
By Friday broad troughing begins to take shape across the western US with strengthening westerly flow across the Rockies helping to induce lee cyclogenesis to our north.
Warming trend continues on Friday as temperatures return to the lower to mid 80s areawide, which is around 5 to 10 degrees above seasonable normals.
607 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022 (Today) After another cool start, including freezing temps in some of the valleys, the warming trend continues today. Westerly downslope flow off the deck will continue eastward expansion of the low level thermal ridge. Leaned toward warmer MOS/NBM 75th %ile for high temps.
Weak upper ridging builds in today into Friday and with increasing mid level heights comes temperatures back above normal.
Highs are forecast to be in the lower to mid 70s today. The latest satellite imagery are showing low to mid clouds across west central and southwest Florida and clear skies to the north, as high pressure continues to builds into the region. Mostly clear skies and low rain chances over the coastal waters as an area of high pressure builds in over the region.
527 AM EDT Thu Oct 20 2022 The main theme for the rest of the week into the weekend will be warming temperatures as the trough responsible for the recent cold snap pulls north and east out of the area. Overcast sky and persistent wind have prevented widespread freezing conditions from developing through most of the night, but temps have dropped several degrees in the most recent hour at LNS, MUI, and several other sites. Building high pressure will result in diminishing winds tonight as well as skies clearing by daybreak.
246 AM PDT Thu Oct 20 2022 Dry and unseasonably warm conditions continue through the end of the week due to high pressure over the area. Expect temperatures to fall to below normal by the weekend as a trough of low pressure brings cooler air and light precipitation to the area. Today and Friday we will see temperatures 9-13 degrees above normal with some high clouds from a closed low well off the coast.
651 AM EDT Thu Oct 20 2022 High pressure will cross the region today through Friday with dry weather and gradually warming temperatures.
An upper ridge will begin to collapse on the northeast side today but not before highs climb 10 to 20 degrees above normal into the 60s and 70s. Breezy west to southwest winds will develop this afternoon ahead of a cold front that will sweep through tonight. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Corson and Dewey counties since that is where the low RH and breezy winds will coincide.
High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley through the weekend, resulting in dry conditions and warming temperatures. A mid level trough axis will rotate down across the area through this afternoon. With the lower levels remaining fairly dry, the main result of this looks to be an increase in mid and high level clouds later this morning and into this afternoon. Ahead of the trough axis, southwest winds will increase into the 10 to 20 mph with some gusts to around 25 mph or so possible. The developing WAA will be countered somewhat by the increasing clouds today with afternoon highs generally in the low to mid 50s. On the backside of the trough, mid level ridging will build into the area tonight into Friday.