Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The growing season will likely be done area-wide by the end of the week with multiple mornings forecast to see below freezing temperatures. Discussion The broad pattern today and for the rest of the work week will be a trough over eastern CA and the northeast U. , with ridging over the western parts of the U. At the surface, high pressure will keep its hold over the Midwest. The column will be below freezing down until about the last 2000 feet, so any snow flakes that make it to the surface will be partially melted. The trough will move east-southeast through the day, giving everyone a chance at seeing some light rain by the early afternoon.
Winds will remain from the north keeping a cool feel with highs today in the low 70s and lows tonight around 50 degrees.
With the anticipated cloud cover and possible precip, most places will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday. Exception may be along Red river into southeast Oklahoma where they may be on the warm side of surface boundary and temps may climb back into the lower 70s. Temperatures across the north will remain above freezing, precluding any chance for frozen precip.
A cold front is moving through our area as of this writing, bringing breezy and cooler conditions. VFR conditions expected through the forecast period given relatively dry low levels and building high pressure.
A series of minor disturbances bookended by periods of ridging will keep conditions mostly dry and mild with periods of clouds and afternoon breezes. The denser cloud cover should clear out overnight but scattered high clouds will continue to pass over the area through Tuesday with our area lying east of a building ridge.
226 AM CDT Mon Nov 1 2021 Cooler and mostly dry conditions are expected this week with nightly chances for frost and freezing temperatures, which looks to put an end to the growing season by the middle of the week. Forecast soundings keep the low to mid-levels pretty dry throughout this morning, though the column should saturate by this afternoon. This will act to keep things on the dry side and temperatures 10-15 degrees cooler than normal through the end of the week.
All indications are that cloudiness will clear our southern CWA this evening, setting the stage for freezing temperatures CWA-wide tonight with the only possible exception being downtown Chicago. First, it's possible that many areas this morning could drop to freezing, even south of I-80, effectively ending the growing season.
422 AM EDT Mon Nov 1 2021 Below-normal temperatures are expected throughout the week under a broad trough over the Great Lakes. Under prevailing cold advection, expect areas in the ridges (mostly above 2500ft) will likely see rain changing to snow.
These warmer surface temperatures may decrease the lake effect potential this morning to some degree, as if temperatures fell into the 20s there would be more of a difference from the warmer lake temperatures.
Today Through Tuesday With an upper low pressure system just north of the Great Lakes, zonal flow was across Arkansas. High temperatures today will be in the lower 50s to lower 70s and mid 40s to mid 60s Tuesday.
Low pressure rounding the southern edge of the ridge across the Plains will help strengthen the pressure gradient on Tuesday, increasing southeasterly winds slightly during the afternoon.
Light showers may begin to develop by this afternoon near and north of a stalled cold front with at least some potential for MVFR ceilings to develop by the end of the forecast period. The cold front has currently stalled across the higher terrain across southeast OK/northwest AR, and short range guidance remains consistent in slowly lifting the boundary north on Monday.
while a ridge was located over British Columbia. Forecast soundings show most of the column remains below freezing today except for the boundary layer, so precipitation type will be determined by the temperatures at the surface. Tonight with the upper trough moving east high pressure will build southward into northern Kansas with dry air advection.
Water vapour had upper low north of Lake Superior with trough axis into then northern plains.
Zonal flow dominates the forecast period through Tuesday as broad upper level troughing shifts across the northern CONUS into Tuesday. With a dry airmass rooted in place and high pressure remaining in control, expect no precipitation through Tuesday. Temperatures will be near normal during the near term period, with highs in the lower to middle 70's and lows in the middle to upper 40's, and lower 50's along the coast.
A large area of high pressure centered over the north central United States today will drift slowly eastward through the week, building gradually into North Carolina from the northwest and north.
The other aspect of this system is we are looking at some pretty cold air at the end of the week which will be the first freezing temps of the season for most locations. The ECM has been consistent developing an upper low over the region Sat night but at this point it is just something to watch. High pressure continues to build into Middle Tennessee from the northwest.
Some erosion of the shallow front is expected across the south, and thus temps at Hugo down near the Red River could get a good 20 degrees warmer than the northern areas.
The more sheltered northern mountain valleys will see cold temperatures dropping into the low 20s.
A cooler pattern will be in place with temperatures dropping to near freezing multiple times this week. Temperatures will be a little cooler today with high temperatures expected in the upper 40s to the middle 50s. Highly amplified mid and upper level flow pattern with mean trof settling south into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley at mid week.
133 AM EDT Mon Nov 1 2021 High pressure will prevail into the mid week. Temperatures are on track to reach the 40 inland to the low 50s along the coast.
Flow aloft over the Ohio Valley will generally be zonal west to east at the base of a broad upper level trough across eastern US/Canada.
This is a combination of lighter QPF from the dry air and slightly warmer surface temperatures. In addition, surface temperatures are still in the mid 30s to even 40s in some spots, so expect that any road impacts will be primarily on elevated surfaces (bridges, overpasses, etc).
That said, guidance has backed further from that scenario, and given the low confidence/coverage, opted to remove any mention in the TAFs. For tomorrow, broad high pressure will remain centered north of the region.
1137 PM MDT Sun Oct 31 2021 The low center defining the base of the rex block over the Pacific Northwest was filling in according to latest model analyses, and as models had predicted. As the low lifts north as an open wave over the Northwest some of that energy is ejected across the northern portion of the forecast area tonight. This general pattern will persist Monday through Monday night with another low-amplitude trough passing during the day Monday and another approaching late Monday night. The lower elevations will see rain as snow levels only lower to near 9000 feet tonight and around 8500 feet Monday night. There is decent agreement that precipitation will begin across northern portions of the area, favoring the higher terrain, and will shift south Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Next surge of cooler and moist air will be on the way after 00z tonight, and while there may not be any category changes prior to 6z, do expect that IFR/LIFR conditions will be widespread by the end of the next 12z package. Clouds will increase again Monday night as low level moisture increases behind the next cold front that moves south across the region.
with slick conditions expected on area roadways as snowfall is expected to rapidly melt on the warmer surfaces. The only other concern in the short term was freezing temperatures and the potential for a freeze overnight tonight. Given the winter headline and marginal freezing temperatures (mostly in the 30-32 degree range), opted not to issue a freeze warning as the much more impactful freeze is expected early Tuesday morning with clearing skies across our north expected to allow temperatures to plummet into the teens near Ord.
A dissipating cold front will move eastward across Northern California tonight.
Minimal radiational cooling was seen across the Lower Keys due to the pesky cloud cover that persisted through most of the night. Ridging has slowly begun to build in across the region, which caused winds to veer more to the north to northeast. With the mid-upper level low out of the picture, ridging will continue to build into our area. As high pressure centered across the central United States slowly shifts east, the gradient across the Florida Keys will tighten in response.
There is also a very small chance of a sprinkle or flurry over the lower elevations of south central MT and north central WY Tuesday night, but so far ensembles are indicating that lower levels will be just dry enough to prevent any precipitation from reaching the ground there.
143 AM EDT Mon Nov 1 2021 High pressure builds into the region tonight through Monday night.
Generally, northwesterly flow, cloud cover, and CAA continues to keep temperatures cooler than normal, with highs in the lower to mid 40s. Lows tonight fall into the lower to mid 20s with clearing skies. No real change in the overall pattern through the early portion of this week, as the Northern Plains remains on the western side of the upper level trough with a ridge developing to the west. This maintains upper level northwesterly flow, keeping temperatures cooler than average, with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s.
Currently there is a dry cold front on the doorsteps in the NW. More sunshine as high pressure builds back in on Tuesday with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Tonight and Monday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a digging trough pushing into the western Great Lakes, and pushing a cold front across Lower Michigan early this afternoon. High pressure will be building from the northern Plains to the central Mississippi Valley. Low level winds of 20 to 25 kts will likely keep the boundary layer churned up enough to prevent decoupling and stayed warmer than the NationalBlend as a result. Cooler highs ranging from the upper 30s to middle 40s.
And the cloud bases could drop quite low as cooler easterly flow takes over towards morning. Behind this cold front, the low levels will begin to saturate, resulting in increasing low-level clouds and the potential for light precipitation Tuesday. Guidance has come into a little better agreement on afternoon temperatures; however, there remain some stragglers on the warmer side.
334 AM EDT Mon Nov 1 2021 The deep upper low over eastern Canada and long wave troughing now extending across the Great Lakes region will result in a much colder airmass overhead this week relative the overall mild conditions of last month. The cold air advection following in the wake of last evenings cold front will be followed by a neutral advection regime under westerly flow today, with 850mb temps holding around -5C. The gradient flow will hold min temps largely in the 30s tonight, with highs on Tuesday topping out in the low to mid 40s under a slightly colder airmass.
High pressure continues to build into Middle Tennessee from the northwest.
1210 AM EDT Mon Nov 1 2021 Below-normal temperatures are expected throughout the week under a broad trough over the Great Lakes. With a lack of moisture associated with the trough, precipitation will remain light and near I-80 due to lake enhancement from NW flow.
Update this evening concentrated on potential for freezing conditions in our northern counties. Skies will continue to clear from west to east this evening as dry air works in behind the departing cold front. Temperatures will cool into the low-to-middle 30s overnight. Skies will gradually clear from north to south Monday night as subsidence works in behind the mid- level trough axis. The coldest nights of the week will come in the middle of the week as the center of high pressure builds directly over central Illinois. GFS ensembles continue to suggest shallower and more progressive troughing across the eastern third of the CONUS, while the EC and CMC ensembles offer deeper and much slower progression.
The clouds and evaporational cooling should limit highs into the lower 40s in some of the southern counties, with mid/ upper 40s primarily elsewhere. A Freeze Warning will likely be needed for the rest of our far southern counties which have yet to see subfreezing temps. Tranquil conditions with below normal temperatures are expected through mid-week, as we remain largely governed by surface ridging and dry north/northwest flow aloft.
The models also show an upper level low pressure trough axis dropping south out of Canada and across the region tonight through Monday night. The lift from this trough along with more caa mixing on Monday, will result in cloud redevelopment mainly across the east. With this cloud cover along with the cooler air, highs will be slightly lower on Monday mainly in the upper 30s to the lower 40s. As a result, it will be colder with lows in the upper teens to the lower 20s across the cwa by Tuesday morning.
123 AM EDT Mon Nov 1 2021 Below-normal temperatures are expected throughout the week under a broad trough over the Great Lakes. With a lack of moisture associated with the trough, precipitation will remain light and near I-80 due to lake enhancement from NW flow.
Otherwise, a warmer quiet period ahead. An upper level trough continues to rotate short waves across the Northland atop of modest low level instability - enhanced greatly by warm lake temperatures.
With the low level moisture, some patchy fog will be possible but probably nothing widespread given the cloud cover. Most areas will see mountain snow with a rain / snow mix in the lower elevations.
516 AM CDT Mon Nov 1 2021 Cooler and mostly dry conditions are expected this week with nightly chances for frost and freezing temperatures, which looks to put an end to the growing season by the middle of the week. Forecast soundings keep the low to mid-levels pretty dry throughout this morning, though the column should saturate by this afternoon. This will act to keep things on the dry side and temperatures 10-15 degrees cooler than normal through the end of the week.
Cooler temperatures and much drier air has spread across the FL peninsula, with a mere 0. Overnight lows begin a warming trend, only dropping to the low/mid 60s. Favorable boating conditions to begin the week as high pressure maintains mostly dry conditions across the local waters.
747 AM EDT Mon Nov 1 2021 Aviation - Cool week with occasional lake effect showers -- Cool week with occasional lake effect showers -- An omega block in the North American pattern the next few days will keep the Great Lakes region entrenched in the downstream trough with cooler than normal air.
314 AM MDT Mon Nov 1 2021 High pressure over the region will bring another dry but cool day today.
Reinforcing cold front tonight should be dry but will bring colder temperatures for mid-week.
97 The upper level synoptic flow pattern keeps a pronounced ridge of high pressure wedged between two low pressure systems - east and west of our region. The high pressure influence from the southwest will allow daily temperatures to begin increasing again to eventually above normal levels through the mid and latter portions of this week.
The web camera on I-25 near Carr has some snow covering the highway.
535 AM MDT Mon Nov 1 2021 Updated Aviation Discussion High pressure over the region will bring another dry but cool day today.
311 AM MDT Mon Nov 1 2021 The upper level synoptic flow pattern keeps a pronounced ridge of high pressure wedged between two low pressure systems - east and west of our region. The high pressure influence from the southwest will allow daily temperatures to begin increasing again to eventually above normal levels through the mid and latter portions of this week.
Not expecting precipitation rates to be high, even in the high country.
An active pattern has set up across the Great Basin as a series of weak weather disturbances pass through, follow by brief breaks of high pressure. The disturbances will bring periods of cloudy skies, light showers, and slightly cooler conditions to the silver state.
For Wed/Wed night, high pressure will actually dominate for that 24 hour period and thus expect dry conditions with a threat of stratus and fog Wed morning.
720 AM EDT Mon Nov 1 2021 Below-normal temperatures are expected throughout the week under a broad trough over the Great Lakes. Dry weather is forecast today under surface ridging. Under prevailing cold advection, expect areas in the ridges (mostly above 2500ft) will likely see rain changing to snow.
Currently, an upper level ridge axis is moving across the forecast area, leading to tranquil weather conditions. There is a somewhat jumbled mess of troughing/upper level lows approaching the West Coast, with plenty of high clouds between the aforementioned ridge axis and the incoming energy. One thing we'll be watching again this morning is the potential for advection fog into the Imperial Valley as moisture from the Gulf of California fluxes into the cooler inland airmass. The high clouds will limit some radiational cooling support, but may not be much of a factor given the mechanics.
A cooler pattern will be in place with temperatures dropping to near freezing multiple times this week. Cool, northerly flow will keep highs below average with forecast temperatures reaching the lower to middle 50s this afternoon. Highly amplified mid and upper level flow pattern with mean trof settling south into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley at mid week.
716 AM EDT Mon Nov 1 2021 Dry and breezy conditions are forecast today following a cold front passage along with a few isolated showers.
The other aspect of this system is we are looking at some pretty cold air at the end of the week which will be the first freezing temps of the season for most locations. The ECM has been consistent developing an upper low over the region Sat night but at this point it is just something to watch.
Such was the case earlier this morning as cooler, denser air rushed off mainland South Florida, initiating a broken line of low-topped rain showers, some of which delivered measurable rain in the Keys, including 0. In Florida Keys island communities, mostly sunny skies prevail from the Seven Mile Bridge on up to the Miami-Dade County line. Northerly winds surged overnight across Keys coastal waters, as cooler, drier, and denser air rushed off the mainland south Florida Peninsula. A ridge of high pressure will gradually build across the eastern United States over the next few days.
1039 AM EDT Mon Nov 1 2021 Dry and breezy conditions are forecast today following a cold front passage along with a few isolated showers.
High pressure will remain in place across the area through mid-week with winds shifting to the E/NE. High pressure will be in place across the waters through mid-week with winds turning to the NE/E and remaining AOB 15 knots.
Today will largely be dominated by high pressure, bringing sunny skies and light winds to the region. Another disturbance will move through the high pressure ridge late tonight into Tuesday.
526 AM EDT Mon Nov 1 2021 Below-normal temperatures are expected throughout the week under a broad trough over the Great Lakes. Under prevailing cold advection, expect areas in the ridges (mostly above 2500ft) will likely see rain changing to snow.
Light showers may begin to develop by this afternoon near and north of a stalled cold front with at least some potential for MVFR ceilings to develop by the end of the forecast period, especially across NW AR. Some erosion of the shallow front is expected across the south, and thus temps at Hugo down near the Red River could get a good 20 degrees warmer than the northern areas.
105 PM PDT Mon Nov 1 2021 A weak trough will continue to move to the north tonight, providing mid-level clouds and cooler temperatures. Warmer weather is expected by the middle of the week as high pressure expands from the south. A large troughing pattern will reform over the northeast Pacific later in the week, bringing slight cooling to the region. An area of high pressure to our south will build in Tuesday through the end of the work week, where minor day to day changes in our weather are expected. The region can expect warmer weather to come into the picture with temperatures around 5 degrees above average for most inland areas.
A weak, diffuse cold front pressing southward across the area today will bring no real noticeable airmass change with continued mostly clear and dry conditions into tonight. On Tuesday, expect much of the same with an an additional dry cold front bringing some increase in mid and high-level cloud cover.
Clear skies this evening are expected to become mostly cloudy late tonight as an upper level weather system moves in from the west through Idaho into the dominating high pressure region over Montana.
Across northern Nebraska, drier air in the low- levels will filter south with clearing skies expected to occur slowly tonight from north to south.
Should remain dry for most locations, with seasonally cooler temperatures expected Tuesday. High pressure and northerly flow continues to dominate at the surface while mostly zonal flow is in place aloft. As the cold front approaches this evening, model guidance is suggesting that cloud coverage will begin to increase as mid-levels become more saturated. Models are in pretty good agreement that we will see some seasonally cooler temperatures post FROPA, as 850mb temperatures struggle to stay above freezing anywhere outside of the far southern valley and surface flow remains from the north.
High pressure will continue to build in from the northwest this evening into tonight. A reinforcing push of dry air will move in during the overnight east of the high. Warmer lows are forecast southeast of I-71 (upper 30s) due to thicker cloud cover. On Tuesday, northerly winds continue to advect cool air into the Ohio Valley as skies clear while high pressure builds in. For Tuesday night, high pressure noses overhead leading to calming winds under partially clear skies. A longwave H5 trough remains the primary synoptic feature over the Ohio Valley during the middle of the work week. Northwesterly flow aloft will continue to advect cooler and drier air from Canada into our CWA - offering below normal temperature values.
326 PM EDT Mon Nov 1 2021 High pressure will prevail into mid week. Weak high pressure will persist through tonight. A backdoor cold front is forecast to move through the region Tuesday and then linger off the coast. Thereafter, a wedge pattern will set up as a deep mid-level trough is positioned along the Appalachian Mountains and the aforementioned cold front lingers in the vicinity of the offshore coastal waters. Some models are hinting at the formation of a coastal low along the lingering cold front.
Issued by National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1225 PM CDT Mon Nov 1 2021 /Through Tuesday/ A cool day is expected today in the wake of a cold front passage that occurred yesterday.
This will limit the radiational cooling somewhat, but still expect lows to fall into the lower to mid 40s. High pressure will slide eastward and into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday, with CAA continuing through the day. Zonal flow will persist aloft through Tuesday night, before a trough begins to dig into the Southern Plains. This trough will strengthen as it progresses eastward, with moisture will begin filtering into the area late Tuesday night. Expect increasing clouds overnight, with lows in the lower 40s and perhaps upper 30s in a few spots.
Upper level ridging will begin to build in, helping lead to warming temperatures starting tomorrow. Precipitation will also be scarce to find in Northeast Montana, again due to the upper level ridging building in.