Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 342 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/ (Tonight and Thursday) An upper ridge currently over the southern Rockies will move southeast into West Texas by late Thursday, which will result in dry conditions across West Central Texas the next 24 hours. With the ridge west of the area, we remain in northwest flow aloft, which would be favorable for activity to make a run at our far northern counties towards evening. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s, with highs on Thursday in the lower and middle 90s. Upper level high pressure will move across the Southern Plains late this week, shifting all the way over the Southeast US by the weekend.
VFR clouds will increase Thursday evening hours as a cold front encroaches from the west.
Below normal yet pleasant temperatures will continue through the evening and into tomorrow, and with slightly cooler temperatures than the previous forecast, lowered temps just a bit overnight. Middle TN continues to be influenced by high pressure centered to the north.
Late tonight through Thursday midday, a weak front with a trailing northern stream trough sags southward through the region. Highs will be slightly cooler than today, reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s. Decided to mention just a bit of patchy late night fog on the upslope side of the Buffalo Ridge in southwest MN, as a light northerly wind can sometime radiate temperatures a bit lower then anticipated creating some low lying fog.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 92 64 93 / 0 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 90 64 90 / 0 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 62 90 63 90 / 0 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 87 61 87 / 0 10 10 20.
18z SFC analysis shows a dome of high pressure settling into the area from the northwest. This is bringing a drier air mass into the state along with some cooler temperatures.
Boundary layer moisture quality and mid-level cooling is evidently a bit better than expected behind a weak cold front, and showers and storms have formed well north of what was previously expected. With the front expected to stall and a broad 500mb trough forecast to remain in place over the region for Thursday, POPs have been increased a bit and expanded northwest.
(Issued 244 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016) The 19z surface analysis indicated that the cold front was moving through central Alabama well south of the forecast area. A large area of high pressure centered over the Ohio valley region was filtering in drier and cooler air into the Tennessee valley region. The ridge of high pressure is progged by the short term models to shift eastward through the lower Ohio valley region to the mid Atlantic coastal region by Thursday afternoon.
We have updated the forecast to lower POPs to slight chance across inland areas tonight, but will still keep a chance near the immediate coast in the higher precipitable water airmass.
734 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 Weak low pressure and an associated cold front will push east through the region today through tonight. High pressure will build in from the west Thursday.
Weak upper troughs will bring a slight chance of showers at times. The lowlands should be covered by the clouds by mid morning.
746 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 A ridge of high pressure will continue to bring quiet weather to the area tonight and Thursday.
A series of frontal boundaries will move into the Southeastern states through the weekend, and stall, as high pressure ridge remains to the Southeast.
High pressure aloft will prevail over the Great Basin throughout the remainder of the week. Moisture embedded in the high will also persist across Utah through the end of the week. Overall a ridge aloft remains over the CWA but the weak trof that brought the moisture north remains embedded in the high.
This kink of energy makes an approach upon the FA tonight, and passage tmrw-tmrw night, as a short wave embedded in the mean nwlys aloft makes passage, coincident with a long wave trof's passage across the Great Lakes.
70/DD (Issued 705 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016) (Issued 244 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016) The 19z surface analysis indicated that the cold front was moving through central Alabama well south of the forecast area. A large area of high pressure centered over the Ohio valley region was filtering in drier and cooler air into the Tennessee valley region. The ridge of high pressure is progged by the short term models to shift eastward through the lower Ohio valley region to the mid Atlantic coastal region by Thursday afternoon.
647 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016 Scattered thunderstorms continue to drop south across the northern tier counties, ahead of a cold front. Current surface analysis places cold front sagging southward near the international border with low off towards northeastern Ontario. Upper level analysis places ridge over the Rockies with low over southwestern Hudson Bay, bringing northwest flow to our area. Weak short wave trough sliding through western North Dakota continues to produce showers and thunderstorms in area of enhanced instability where deep layer shear is also elevated a bit. Cooler airmass settles in which will bring below average temperatures to the area.
739 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016 Main concern for tonight and Thursday will be a weak cold front sagging south from Canada. This band will then continue southeast Thursday morning, with the highest coverage likely to be over western WI and far eastern MN. Clearing skies will quickly follow for Thursday evening as high pressure brings drier air in. This will lead to warmer temperatures each day locally with light southerly flow also bringing increasing moisture.
732 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 High pressure through Thursday.
1148 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016 Skies will remain mostly clear most of the night as high pressure slowly pushes east. The first system is another cold front from Canada in the northwest flow over the eastern half of country.
As the ridge progresses to the east, surface winds will gradually turn to southeast overnight. With a dry airmass in place, temperatures by early Tuesday morning will be near or well below freezing across most of Oklahoma and perhaps western north Texas. This will keep most of Oklahoma cool/mild, but warmer temperatures are expected across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas.
Otherwise, expect mainly MVFR ceilings and northwest winds to 10 mph to persist in the wake of the cold front into late tonight through early tomorrow morning. /BB/ Tonight and Tuesday: A trough, currently observed on water vapor imagery swinging southeast out of the plains and into the Southeast United States, will continue to force a cold front into and through the CWA this afternoon into tonight. High pressure will build into the region in the wake of the front on Tuesday. Once again, some clouds will remain present in the north along the Highway 82 corridor, resulting in partly cloudy skies there Tuesday afternoon. Although temperatures are expected to fall to below freezing in some areas, dry conditions and significant winds will also limit frost development.
A weak cold front will track across the Southern Appalachian Region tonight.
A ridge of high pressure amplifying over the Great Basin will provide warm and dry weather through midweek.
Furthermore, freezing levels will be dropping and should be in the 700 ft to 1000 ft agl range after midnight across northern areas, and then southern areas after 09z.
/issued 551 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017/ A cold front will continue to move southeastward across southeastern Louisiana bringing a line of light showers into the forecast area through the evening hours today. High Pressure will bring dry conditions from Tuesday through the end of the work week with temperatures running about 10 degrees below normal through the period.
Strongest shear profiles remain across SW FL though models indicate 850 mb winds increasing to 40-50 knots with near and just south of the low track which will support the chance for a strong to possibly severe storm. Frontal convection mainly in the form of showers should precede the cold front that will move through the areas in the early morning hours to around sunrise. Strengthening offshore flow through the middle of the night expected and then should see the cold front sweep across the waters late tonight into Tue morning.
In the middle and upper levels (700-200 mb), latest available ir imagery overlaid with model streamline analysis as of 1000 pm depict the north south axis of a sharpening full latitudinal trough oriented from Lake Superior to the North Central Gulf of Mexico. An unusually strong southwesterly jet over 100 knot jet at 250 mb and 50 knots at 500 mb is rounding the base of the trough and moving across South Florida and the Florida Keys attm. At the surface and in the lower to middle levels(Surface to 700 mb), Latest available IR imagery overlaid with land and surface observations and analysis as of 1000 pm, detail a 1030 mb plus center of arctic high pressure south of Nova Scotia. Temperatures across the islands are in the Upper 70s with dewpoints in the lower 70s.
High pressure with a drier air mass will now build in for the remainder of the night into Tuesday. A cold front is departing the region this evening and clouds are decreasing. /issued 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017/ As of 3PM, a reinforcing cold front currently extends across the northern portion of the CWA resulting in areas of showers across Vernon, Rapides, and Avoyelles Parishes. Therefore, while not included in the forecast package, a rumble or two of thunder can't be ruled out as the cold front and associated showers continue to progress southeastward over the next several hours.
Louis at 19Z with the trailing cold front extending through southeast MO.
As the area of low pressure this band is associated with lifts northeast across Florida overnight, the rain will clear out from north to south by sunrise.
The cold front is moving across Central Alabama at this writing. Additional light rain was noted behind the front associated with the upper trough/low. A cold front was moving southeastward and currently affecting TOI. 75 Another cold front will bring rain showers across the area today through this evening until it pushes out of the eastern counties by around midnight.
730 PM MST Mon Mar 13 2017 Strong high pressure will dominate much of the western states through this weekend.
High pressure will dominate our weather this week, with temperatures well above average and dry conditions for Southeast Arizona. Record to near record highs today across the area under strong high pressure aloft.
/issued 823 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017/ A an area of light rain associated with the upper-level trough axis continues to move east across the Mid- South this evening. Mostly cloudy skies cover the remainder of the Mid-South with temperatures in the lower 40s for the most part. The cold front is beginning to push into Northeast AR as winds are starting to shift to the NW. Low clouds will likely remain over the region overnight which will help keep temps up but cold air advection may be strong enough to drop temps below freezing across the northern tier of counties. The latest MOS and mesoscale data points to counties along the KY/MO border dipping to freezing, or just below for a couple of hours late tonight into early Tuesday despite cloud cover.
853 PM PDT Mon Mar 13 2017 High pressure aloft will continue dry and very warm days inland this week, while the marine layer and weak onshore flow keeps the coast cooler, with areas of low clouds and fog. Slightly cooler by midweek as a weak trough weakens the ridge and increases onshore flow.
Much Cooler Tomorrow through Thu. a fading pre-frontal area of scattered showers will approach from the NW associated with the actual surface cold front. but also expected a gradual erosion of showers through daybreak as mid/upper level dry slot now across the western FL panhandle wraps northward across the local area as the upper trough begins to lift out to the NE. Widespread stratiform rainfall will blanket the terminals through midnight with rainfall gradually tapering off from the west by 06Z with only a low chance of early morning showers Tue morning through about 10 am ahead of the surface cold front. Breezy WNW flow will increase before sunrise to near 10-15 kts ahead of the surface cold front then trailing the front later in the morning wind gusts up to 20 kts are expected by mid- morning.
947 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017 The first cold front looks to have made its way off of the coast earlier this evening.
Expect light rain ahead and along a cold front that moves across the north central gulf coast region including all terminal sites in southwest Al and northwest Fl through about 14. Meanwhile, an approaching cold front will bring more light rain showers to the area later this evening. Highs on Tuesday will range from the low to mid 50s inland to low 60s near the coast. Lows tonight will fall into the low 40s inland mid and upper 40s along the coast.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 35 47 25 44 / 50 20 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 35 43 22 38 / 70 20 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 35 45 22 41 / 70 20 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 35 43 18 37 / 80 40 20 10 NC.
Analysis at 2 PM CDT shows slow clearing with cold Canadian high pressure moving into the region as storm has moved to the southeast.
Light showers/sprinkles north of Great Falls are diminishing right now, but as the warm front redevelops over the region after Midnight, expect showers to redevelop over Central/Southwest MT. Some freezing rain still possible in the Fort Benton/Havre/Harlem area as cold air remains in place. With KHVR being on the cold side of the front, some -FZRA/PL/SN will be possible TUE AM before the front pushes through with warmer air.
An area of high pressure is expected to advance towards the east over southwest Ontario Canada tonight and through the day Tuesday, keeping the Northland within the anti-cyclonic flow associated with the high. Both the GFS/NAM models are showing a good slug of moisture as higher relative humidity values in the low-levels sweep southward over northwest Wisconsin. Elsewhere, high pressure should remain in control over the region through Tuesday. Mostly clear skies are expected overnight tonight due to the high pressure overhead. This, coupled with the light winds associated with the high, should lead to a good radiational cooling night tonight.
However it appears on satellite that the back end of this high-level moisture was about to move down from Wyoming. A moderate northwesterly flow aloft will be over the region tonight with ridge to the west. The airmass will become increasingly stable and high pressure increase at the surface and aloft.
19Z water vapor imagery shows northwest flow over the northern Rockies and Great Plains with an upper ridge centered over southern CA. At the surface, a cold high pressure system was ridging though the plains with the cold front pushing through south TX. Lows tonight are expected to remain in the 20s with cloud cover preventing much of a drop off as the ridge axis passes through with weakening winds.
While significant warming did occur across the far southwestern zones leading to snow melt and excess moisture, the main problem revolves around a huge input of thick chinook-arch clouds moving around a ridge and dropping down from the northwest. GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: The short-term period begins this evening with a long-wave upper- level pattern across CONUS and Canada, with a trough in the East and a ridge in the West. With warmer air surging in from the southwest, temperatures will not fall much tonight from highs today.
815 PM MDT Mon Mar 13 2017 Upper ridge building in from the west was creating mid level warm advection, which was generating quite a bit of clouds across the area. Warm advection will spread to the lower levels and temperatures should level off shortly. However as temperatures cool overnight there will be a chance for freezing rain across mainly Carter and Fallon counties tomorrow night.
/Issued 359 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017/ An upper ridge over the Intermountain West Region tonight through the middle of the week will allow for a dry northwesterly upper flow across the Panhandles. The upper ridge will build east across the Panhandles and Plains States by late in the week.
Light showers/sprinkles north of Great Falls are diminishing right now, but as the warm front redevelops over the region after Midnight, expect showers to redevelop over Central/Southwest MT. Some freezing rain still possible in the Fort Benton/Havre/Harlem area as cold air remains in place. A plume of moisture streaming into the Pacific NW will combine with an upper level disturbance and a surface warm front to produce areas of light precipitation through Tuesday morning. There still remains some potential for a RA/FZRA/SN mix at KHVR as the terminal remains on the colder side of the warm front at this time. Otherwise, gusty winds develop across much of central MT in the wake of the warm front Tuesday afternoon.
823 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017 A an area of light rain associated with the upper-level trough axis continues to move east across the Mid- South this evening. Mostly cloudy skies cover the remainder of the Mid-South with temperatures in the lower 40s for the most part. The cold front is beginning to push into Northeast AR as winds are starting to shift to the NW. Low clouds will likely remain over the region overnight which will help keep temps up but cold air advection may be strong enough to drop temps below freezing across the northern tier of counties. The latest MOS and mesoscale data points to counties along the KY/MO border dipping to freezing, or just below for a couple of hours late tonight into early Tuesday despite cloud cover.
Dry air in the lower levels will continue to filter in and erode ceilings between 10 to 15z west to east. Winds behind the cold front will be gusty south of tidal lakes through 18z Tuesday.
Lows will drop tonight to below freezing in some northern areas of AR, and a freeze warning is in effect for the area. / Issued 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017 Cold front moved through the state today and has ushered in some cold temperatures for the next few days as a cold air mass settles in over the state of Arkansas. Tonight temperatures will be near or below freezing for the northern portions of the state. Not sure how long the temperatures will be below freezing so only have issued a freeze warning for the northern tiers of the counties. Some areas to just south may need to be expanded into the warning, however, don't think freezing temperatures will last more than an hour or so in these areas.
Cloud cover across NW Arkansas kept afternoon high temperatures on the low side today with many locations there struggling to reach the middle to upper 30s. Winds will continue to decrease and become northeast as weak high pressure builds into the region.
733 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017 Snow will continue to taper off as low pressure over the Ohio Valley moves east.
Winds will continue to decrease and become northeast as weak high pressure builds into the region.
745 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017 Low pressure along the FL/GA coast will move northward along the coast tonight bringing additional rain to the area through tonight. The low will track into the New England states Tuesday with colder and drier air moving back into the region with temperatures well below normal.
605 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017 A relatively small area of light freezing drizzle, along with a few snow showers, has developed late this afternoon and will continue to push southeast through the eastern half or so of the forecast area early this evening. For the most part, impacts should be minimal with this freezing drizzle given warm ground and road temperatures. However, a few slick spots on area bridges and overpasses are not out of the question. A cold front moved through the area early today. Ahead of the high some flurries will be possible across portions of southeastern Kansas and western Missouri, but again no accumulations will occur.
Toyed earlier with the idea of canceling the Flash Flood Watch with the afternoon package, but current storm development (some of which is close to where our highest rainfall totals and associated significant creek/bayou rises were observed in the past 24 hours) in combination with the high precipitable water air mass that is not going away any time soon and lowered flash flood guidance values supports keeping the Watch up.
Low pressure will cross the region midweek. An upper level trough will keep the chance of showers over the region later in the week. with showers starting to percolate on the prefrontal trof. High pressure will briefly take hold of the region on Mon. Temps are not expected to be much cooler. For far Srn zones that should keep heat index values in the lower 90s. Cooler and more comfortable readings are expected Mon night too. Patchy valley fog is possible with the cooler air settling in.
Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower 60s which are close to the dewpoint temperatures. High temperatures will be very similar to the highs today, but a little cooler near the lake since we will start out with an easterly breeze right away in the morning. The approach of the low will bring rising dewpoints into southern WI throughout the afternoon, so expect conditions to feel more humid as the day goes on.
A ridge of high pressure, over the Great Basin, will shift eastward on Monday as a weak upper level low pressure system nudges into the region.
235 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016 Water vapor imagery continues to show the upper level low lifting north over Arkansas this afternoon. with the surface reflection of the low still over Texarkana area. This upper level low will accelerate northward and become absorbed into the longwave trough by tonight. the longwave trough barely moves over the next several days due to a blocking high over the southeast. migrating ever so slightly throughout the week with the position of the longwave trough.
210 PM EDT Sun Aug 14 2016 A cold front will push south of the North Country this evening with variably cloudy skies overnight and areas of valley fog after midnight.
Dry conditions are expecting to persist today and through the next few days as a weak ridge of high pressure continues across the western united states.
A very strong U/L ridge over the central Atlantic with a ridge axis extending across the southeast U. Strong subsidence due to the U/L ridge will continue to produce above normal temperatures across the forecast area, while the deep tropical moisture and southeast flow will allow scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop Monday afternoon over much of the forecast area. Mid level ridging over the western Atlantic extends to the lower Mississippi valley through the end of the work week. Broad Atlantic high pressure stretches through the southeast U. As the ridge axis moves south over the area the flow gradually shifts to more westerly with the greatest shower/storm coverage inland in the afternoons and exiting to the east in the evenings. Temperatures will be around normal for the highs while the lows run slightly just above.
An upper level trough will continue to move away from the region. At the sfc, High Plains lee troughing will strengthen.
The best development is over the Palmer ridge, but it is The water vapor satellite pictures show decent subsidence over the forecast area right now. Current temperatures are 3-6 F warmer up from yesterday's readings at this time. Should see additional drying today with weak subsidence behind the am trof moving in from the Northwest. This should put afternoon highs into the lower to mid 90s over the plains. Only other chance for showers would be along the CYS ridge. Temperatures will warm again as an upper ridge moves overhead. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the high terrain have a slight chance of pushing out over the urban corridor and adjacent plains in the late afternoon and evening, especially over Larimer and Weld counties where surface winds will transport in moisture.
Strong mid level ridge will extend from the Carolinas offshore with 596-597 DM height northeast of the area.