Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Yet another nice summer day expected across central and southeast IL due to 1023 mb high pressure staying over northern IL through tonight. Highs in the lower to middle 80s, and humidity levels still fairly low with dewpoints ranging from the upper 50s to middle 60s through the day. Lows tonight in the lower to middle 60s. A weak short wave/trof moves se into central IL on Tue and diurnal heating into the mid 80s with dewpoints in the mid 60s could develop isolated convection Tue afternoon mainly north of I-70. A deepening upper level trof into the Midwest by Thu to bring a fairly strong cold front se into the IL river valley late Thu afternoon and thru rest of central/se IL Thu evening and likely bring showers and thunderstorms and strong to isolated severe storms possible Thu afternoon/evening.
The biggest event will be the unseasonably deep upper level trough that will move into the midwest/Great Lakes area by mid week.
648 AM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Little change in the forecast as high pressure over the Mid Mississippi River valley is responsible for the unseasonably cool and dry weather over the area. Northwest flow aloft is being driven by a trough over the northeastern US and ridge covering most of the western part of the country. The combination of light east to northeasterly flow and clear skies in complex terrain will likely drive temperatures a couple of degrees cooler over areas of southeast Missouri and the Ozark valleys tonight.
Upper level ridge will build in over the region through the week with above normal temperatures expected.
Second thing that prompted the watch issuance was the high-resolution models forecasting another complex of storms overnight across the western South Plains. The storms are slowly moving in a mostly eastward direction thanks to the center of an upper high being situated to our south. How far the line will get before it falls apart is unknown as even the higher res models have have trouble lately with storm evolution. Rain chances will continue today and tomorrow as the upper high continues on a westward trek.
/19/ The forecast area will remain under northwest flow aloft and the influence of high pressure at the surface centered north of the region. Flow in the upper levels will remain from the NW on Tuesday over the ArkLaMiss as a steep, anomalous ridge builds over the western CONUS and troughing occurs in the east.
957 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 A large high pressure system in the Ohio Valley will keep our weather primarily dry through Tuesday. High pressure will provide another mostly sunny and warm day across the local area with high temperatures ranging in the lower to middle 80s. Conditions will be dry overnight with more valley fog as dew points remain in the lower 60s under mainly clear skies. High pressure will remain in the area but weak disturbances in zonal upper level flow may trigger more isolated to scattered thunderstorms during peak heating.
Much of the activity will wane by the late afternoon/evening giving way to partly cloudy skies and slightly cooler overnight lows. Temperatures still remain quite warm though cooler than the past several days.
Strengthening high pressure aloft across the Great Basin will bring a gradual drying trend with seasonally warm temperatures across the region throughout the week. Water Vapor Satellite shows a ridge centered over Nevada, with a weakening upper trough over central Utah. With the anticyclonic flow around the Nevada ridge, gradual drying continues from northwest to southeast as evident by Precipitable Water, Dewpoint, LCL height, and DCAPE trends. Otherwise expecting most locations to be 1F-2F warmer today compared to yesterday. High pressure aloft strengthening to the west of Utah will bring an increasingly dry and warm air mass into the forecast area during the first half of the week. For the north would expected plenty of convective cloud development over the higher terrain with any precip remaining tied to the terrain through early this evening.
Look for only minor changes from day-to-day through the forecast period as a trough of low pressure remains off the coast. These blocking patterns create an atmospheric quagmire of sorts where little day to day change occurs until the block is dislodged by a more prominent feature. That said, this blocking pattern is expected to be dislodged from the region by tomorrow morning when a much deeper, cooler, and organized upper low descends from the Gulf of Alaska and into the PacNW.
At the beginning of this period, we are still under the presence of an upper trough over the eastern U. , with a surface cold front to our NW near the Ohio Valley, moving to the southeast sluggishly toward us.
Another warm dry day across central Indiana before a cold front approaches tonight bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms to end the work week.
300 PM MDT Thu Aug 10 2017 Cold front has pushed through most of the plains, except over southern Lincoln County at this time. Storms pushing off the higher terrain and over the urban corridor have begun to erode the cap, and are gaining strength. Since the cold front is pushing south, the best chance for a spin-up may end up south of our forecast area. Expect slightly higher temperatures Friday as the upper ridge builds north a bit and allows for some warm advection. West to northwest flow aloft will continue through the weekend with high pressure to the South and upper troughing moving South out of Canada.
Storms then roll east onto the plains in the late afternoon, with cold front dropping south toward the Arkansas River providing additional forcing for convection.
Temperatures today should be a bit warmer than yesterday with some sunshine expected later in the day after stratus burns off but still below normal with highs in the mid 80s. Favored the warmer end of temperature guidance. Weak upper troughiness to remain over the region. Surface front appears will shift north some as a warm front. Little overall change, with upper troughiness over the E CONUS.
While the freezing level is marginally low, around 10500 feet, instability in the form of CAPE appears too skinny and too low to worry about any small hail. Clouds will then clear through the night as high pressure settles south. While stratus should remain to the north and east of the area overnight into Friday morning, east of the Buffalo Ridge could see a little stratus late tonight with northeast winds in the low levels. Lows tonight under high pressure will be from about 50 to 55 while highs on Friday will just be a degree or two warmer than today.
Friday's weather should be fairly similar to today, with the most of the forecast area remaining warm and dry while our northern counties, being on the northern periphery of the upper ridge, and having the possibility of an outflow boundary bringing in moist, northeasterly flow, will maintain the chance of t-storm activity.
251 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017 The pattern aloft continued to feature a northwest flow regime across the Central Plains with an upper trough in the southern Great Lakes region, an upper ridge in the Pacific northwest and closed low undercutting the ridge in northern California. At the surface, a cold frontal boundary was advancing south from southern Nebraska and the boundary is expected to slowly progress south into central/southern Kansas heading into tonight. There is some concern for fog to develop tonight due to recent rain and a cooler post frontal airmass, but this may be offset by the drier air/lower dewpoints advecting in overnight.
Warmer Friday on through the weekend with diminishing thunderstorm activity.
That said the low level moisture combined with sunshine should be able to kick off at least some activity Friday afternoon and then mainly over higher terrain. This weekend we are expecting the activity to pick up again with a moisture surge and a weak trough for a focusing mechanism.
A broad trough offshore the east central Fl coast will move northwest and be across inland northeast Fl Friday afternoon as the Bermuda ridge that has been over the area begins to move east. Light NNE steering winds become light and variable on Friday as the trough moves over the area. A trough of low pressure is forecast to be over the region or in the coastal waters Friday night.
Will need some convection to sire off over the higher terrain and push east to erode the cap and allow for convection over the plains. This will help provide lift early this afternoon for storms that fire off the high terrain. A cold front will push south across northeast Colorado early this afternoon. Later arrival of the cold front will allow for more heating and a little better instability. High temperatures today are expected to be cooler due to cloud cover and a cooler airmass moving in behind the cold front. Storms will likely initiate off the higher terrain than spread into the adjacent plains.
Could see a shower or sprinkle tomorrow as the cooler air aloft moves through, but most places will remain dry. Below normal temps are likely on Friday, with mostly cloudy skies lingering much of the day and the cooler airmass aloft moving through.
These storms will also be attached to a southward moving composite outflow/cold front boundary. Probablistic guidance suggest the highest rain chances will be across the Oklahoma Panhandle and northern Texas Panhandle between 06z and 12z Friday.
300 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017 18Z surface data has a cold front running from central Wisconsin into far northern Kansas. The cold front will sweep through the area this evening. On Friday, dry conditions will be seen across the area as high pressure builds into the area.
However, with the inverted trough lingering across the area and some further afternoon destabilization, will hang on to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon across the area. With less activity expected, temperatures should make it into the low 80s tomorrow.
400 PM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 High pressure will remain just east of the area through Friday.
314 PM MDT Thu Aug 10 2017 Storms have fired this afternoon over the higher terrain, with the northern and central areas seeing the best coverage. This is due to a weak disturbance moving through the westerly flow on the northern periphery of an area of high pressure sitting well to our south. This area of high pressure is expected to slide eastward over Texas on Friday, thanks to an upper level trough moving inland along the Pacific Northwest coast.
656 PM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 High pressure will remain just east of the area through Friday.
133 PM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 Fair weather will continue today as high pressure moves slowly east away from the area. Scattered showers are possible tonight as a cold front approaches from the west.
As the lower level winds crank up from the east through the afternoon, behind the boundary, shear values will increase to around at 50 knots. The Hayden Pass scar probably has the lowest chance of getting hit tonight.
Another another upper level short wave trough was deepening over East Central Colorado. This trough will also deepen over the front as the front moves south. Am still expecting storm coverage to increase as the upper level short wave trough deepens over the southwest part of the forecast area this evening. The rainfall will move south of the forecast area by the latter half of the evening with the short wave trough. There still looks to be a decent chance for flooding to occur over the watch area due to the slow movement of both the frontogenesis and the short wave trough. Overnight the first few thousand feet above ground will saturate as the cold front moves in from the north.
With just weak energy over the area tonight, kept the low PoPs over the mountains. afternoon with the highest PoPs over the E and mountains.
While the pattern will remain fairly active and progressive, we will get somewhat of a transition beginning tomorrow as the warm front shifts out of the area ahead of an approaching cold front swinging into the Mid MS Valley. Ahead of this frontal system, a couple short waves will continue to migrate around the southern fringe of the mid level trough tomorrow.
As high pressure builds east over the area through the afternoon, expect some diminishment over central SD, but areas farther east will likely stay mostly cloudy through much of the day. High pressure will continue to push east across the Dakotas Thursday night and remain through much of Friday (ridge axis along the Dakotas/Minnesota border at 18Z).
The main near term forecast concern is the potential for showers and thunderstorms on Friday as a mid level impulse and weak surface cold front push across the area. The upper level pattern will continue to feature troughiness over the northern and eastern quarter of the nation with an upper high suppressed into the far southern states.
The persistent upper-level pattern of a ridge to the west and a long-wave trough to the east continues through the short-term period. With forcing from the trough, expect rain showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop. Before the wave fully enters the local area, some warmer air does filter in from the west raising highs closer to normal. Friday night, as the base of the trough swings through the local area models show a better chance for rain to develop.
Upper air analysis last evening showed the subtropical ridge over Texas. Otherwise, the subtropical ridge will dominate keeping most of our CWA dry with increasing temperatures.
Cumulus buildups are showing up on visible satellite loops this afternoon over the high terrain and a few of these may become thunderstorms this afternoon near Salmon and Butte.
A wedge of high pressure over the eastern side of the Appalachian mountains allowed for the development of low level clouds into southwest GA earlier this morning.
A slow moving cold front will move into the area early Friday morning through Friday Night with a chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms. A trough axis splitting the forecast area from N-S (Morrow to Cuyahoga County) and eastward will be a focus for some showers and isolated thunderstorms this evening. Temperatures will be warmer tonight as dew points in the 60s return. Diurnally driven clouds in the west will dissipate, yet an approaching cold front will bring in some clouds late. The trailing cold front will enter the area early Friday morning and slowly make it's way east during the day. The boundary will push east Friday night followed by cooler and dry air for the weekend.
Otherwise, should be relatively cool and stable in the wake of the upper trough and sfc front with coverage of showers diminishing through the later afternoon. With that said, the combination of mid/upper level forcing and sfc convergence along a leeside pressure trough should initiate convection in the mid afternoon. With the trough moving overhead in the evening, may see some redevelopment during this time out west, with showers lingering across the plains through Friday night.
250 PM MDT Thu Aug 10 2017 Broad upper trough continues across the eastern half of the CWA with upper ridging/rex block centered across the Pac NW.
While the freezing level is marginally low, around 10500 feet, instability in the form of CAPE appears too skinny and to low to worry about any small hail. Clouds will then clear through the night as high pressure settle south. While stratus should remain to the north and east of the area overnight into Friday morning east of the Buffalo Ridge could see a little stratus late tonight with northeast winds in the low levels. Lows tonight under high pressure will be from about 50 to 55 while highs on Friday will just be a degree or two warmer than today.
1105 AM MDT Thu Aug 10 2017 Updated aviation section Moisture will continue over eastern UT and western CO with the best moisture along the northern periphery of the ridge that sits over NM, AZ and TX. On Friday the ridge recedes a bit to the southeast, this allowing moisture flowing around its western side to begin moving across the four corners region. Monsoonal push will continue into the weekend with the upper level ridge axis parked over eastern Utah.
Favored the warmer end of the temperature guidance. Weak upper troughiness to remain over the region. Surface front appears will shift north some as a warm front. Little overall change, with upper troughiness over the E CONUS.
A weak area of low pressure is moving away from the region this afternoon across the delta region. Deep moisture is still being pulled from the gulf into the low, however with the low moving east the highest moisture is removed from the local area. High pressure aloft will shift over the region, however the area will remain on the edge. The higher chances will be from across CenLA through the Atchafalaya Basin and east. A weak pressure gradient will remain across the area with a ridge centered to the east.
Temperatures will peak in the low 90s this afternoon, then cool to the mid 70s overnight.
Much warmer and more humid across Middle Tennessee versus yesterday at this time with radar showing a few showers across eastern zones and additional showers over northern Alabama.
Highest rain chances will be northeast, while still generally drier and warmer southwest.
Much of the region should see temperatures rising into the low 80s ahead of this frontal passage, allowing for modest destabilization to occur across the forecast area. Western periphery of that high parks itself over the high plains just to our west and makes for on again off again chances for precipitation through the weekend.
A cold front will drop southeast across central Indiana on Friday.
Cold front bisects the CWFA across Albany County this afternoon.
Temperatures in the San Joaquin Valley running a degree or two cooler due to a slightly deeper marine layer. An upper trough over N CA providing a West flow over Central CA. Water vapor images show a dry onshore flow over central CA S of the trough. Models in fair agreement in the short term and indicate the trough over N CA moving NE through Friday morning allowing ridging over the interior west and slight height rises in CA.
Otherwise a partly to mostly sunny day with warmer highs around 80.
KBRO radar currently shows isolated to scattered convection across the lower Texas Gulf waters. The main impacts from Franklin will be along the lower Texas coast as swells from the storm move towards the coast today. Abundant cloud cover and increase rain chances should keep high temperatures generally down into the low to mid 90s area wide.
Otherwise, upper level ridging centered over the Desert Southwest will expand further eastward across west Texas today and tonight. 21 The upper level ridge centered over west Texas will continue to bring hot and dry weather to West Central Texas for the remainder of the week.
For today, surface analysis shows that the warm front has drifted back over the TN Valley. Muggy night lows only in the lower 70s are expected.
A cold front extended southeast from this low and has been slowly drifting south through our northern counties overnight. High pressure builds overhead Friday with continued cooler than normal temperatures and dry conditions.
Favored the warmer end of temperature guidance. Weak upper troughiness to remain over the region. Surface front appears will shift north some as a warm front. Little overall change, with upper troughiness over the E CONUS.
During the 7-10 pm timeframe, thunderstorms are expected to grow upscale into the MCS, with NAM/GFS and other models seeming to want to favor the SW zones (west and south of Dodge City) for the highest impact. Cold front/convective outflow combination will race through SW KS this evening with winds becoming strong and gusty NE. Cooler and more stable, and only mentioned isolated rain showers in the morning. Max temperature grids in the lower 80s are dependent on some afternoon sunshine, but kept mid to upper 70s across the SW zones.
A west-northwest flow aloft will persist today with multiple upstream short wave troughs noted across the Plains.
351 PM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 High pressure will gradually weaken over the Middle Atlantic states tonight. A narrow ridge of high pressure at the surface was maintaining a relatively pleasant air mass across most of central NC as dewpoints this afternoon varied from the mid 50s to near 60 across the Piedmont to the low-mid 60s over the coastal plain. This low level high pressure system will weaken during the next 12-24 hours as the broad upper trough over the eastern U. This weakening will allow a sly flow to develop in the lower levels, advecting a more humid air mass back into our region. The moderating air mass will result in min temps several degrees warmer than this morning. The low-mid level trough accompanying the s/w will likely maintain a few showers and storms into the overnight.
336 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017 (Tonight and Friday) Mid to upper level high pressure will remain in control over west central Texas tonight and into Friday. Thunderstorms developing across the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma this afternoon and evening are forecast to remain north of the Big Country overnight with the aforementioned ridge in place.
Skies to become partly cloudy to mostly clear overnight as upper- level ridge strengthens across the region. A disturbance within northwest flow along the northern and eastern periphery of the ridge to allow for potential MCS development across the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles overnight.
In the mid levels, ridge continues to build over TX into southern LA with the westerlies still in control of the majority of the forecast area.
Showers this morning are forming along an inverted trough axis with positive Theta-E advection and 850mb/700mb convergence that stretches from south-central Kentucky into southwestern Ohio. The inverted trough axis/Theta-E ridge will gradually move eastward through the morning hours, keeping the highest chances of precipitation in eastern Kentucky east of I-65. By Friday, an area of low pressure with a weak trailing "cold" front will move across the lower Ohio Valley region.
119 PM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 Aviation A cold front will approach the area from the west today and move through the region tonight and Friday. Dry weather returns for the weekend with high pressure building in from the west. Main forecast challenge pertains to ascertaining shower/thunderstorm chances associated with a cold front moving through Southwest Lower Michigan over the next 24-36 hours. Some scattered redevelopment is expected on Friday as the cold front will finally be pushing through.
A prefrontal trough has moved across the region today, producing showers and thunderstorms north and south of Central IL, but have so far remained clear of ILX warning area. Cumulus field is pretty expansive across the region on satellite imagery, but has done little to prevent the temperatures from climbing into the low to mid 80s. With the cold front, slightly cooler air moves into place, but tomorrows highs will only vary by a couple degrees. Cooler temperatures continue through the weekend as the highs top out in the upper 70s/near 80.
331 PM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 High pressure across the area will move northeast tonight into Friday as a stalled frontal boundary along the Southeast coast slowly lifts northward.
340 PM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 Upper level trough crosses while warmer and more humid air arrives from the south.
An upper level low will gradually weaken and move east. An upper low continues to meander over the area today. This low was responsible for morning thunderstorms along the Redwood Coast.
Upper ridging centering over the area led to warmer temperatures and much less in the way of precipitation yesterday as compared to the previous 24 hrs. This trend will continue for the foreseeable future until the ridge weakens this weekend. Isolated storms will again be confined to the higher terrain the next couple of afternoons.
A moist air mass will be over the region with the warm front remaining stalled just south of the area through the night. However, given high dewpoints, temperatures will likely only fall into the lower 70s. Weak upper troughiness to remain over the region. Surface front appears will shift north some as a warm front. Little overall change, with upper troughiness over the E CONUS.