Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
524 PM MDT Wed Oct 30 2019 The very cold upper level trough axis has moved east of the area with a genearlly clear sky established over the region. Warming aloft ahead of the next trough will result in considerably warmer highs for the higher elevations.
The trough and associated cold that delivered breezy and cold conditions to northern Arizona today was in the process of moving eastward.
The main concern will be light freezing drizzle and light snow potential tonight. Temperatures look to stay above freezing through the the evening traffic rush. Vertical moisture and temperature profiles in the low level cloud layer would indicate a mix of drizzle/freezing drizzle and light snow possible. All-in-all the fcst database has a light ice (freezing drizzle) accumulation as far south as the KSGF/western Ozarks Highlands area late this evening and into the early overnight hours just after midnight with a mix of light ice and snow accumulation over our northern counties.
Upper trough axis responsible for today's precip is currently centered over eastern Colorado this afternoon. Dry air sampled below 4 kft on the TOP 12Z sounding despite precipitation observed on radar was a good indication that snowfall amounts may be on the lower end, despite the likelihood of light snow continuing through the early evening. Sunny skies return for Halloween with overall light winds veering to the north as a weak cold front passes through. Snow cover should be minimal and not have an impact on temps so have increased highs given the ample sunshine and weak cool air advection with readings in the lower 40s.
1019 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019 Mean layer ridging persists across the basin, although a TUTT-like feature is lumbering west through the Western Caribbean. Low-level ridging persists across Florida, although heights fell a little over the past 12 hours according to the 00Z FL RAOBS. A cold front has cleared the Texas coast and is sliding southeast into the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s with dew points in the mid 70s. From synopsis, high pressure will remain anchored across the Florida Peninsula tonight and Thursday.
Winds will continue decreasing this afternoon, as gradient relaxes with high pressure taking control of the weather, very low relative humidity levels continue. Temperatures are expected to remain just above freezing most locations, best freezing chances will be low lying areas outside of cities.
Precipitation along a quick moving line associated with an upper level system will likely be a mix of -FZDZSN at most of our TAF sites tonight with the exception of KFSM which should remain above freezing before the precipitation ends. /Issued 413 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019/ Drizzle may transition to a period of freezing drizzle or light snow across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas before coming to an end later this evening.
334 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019 An upper level trough is centered over northern Missouri with west flow over West Texas and southeast New Mexico. Clearing skies and light, northerly winds behind a cold front are resulting in temperatures plummeting across the area. An upper trough will move over the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Friday which will send a cold front south towards the CWA.
301 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019 Weak upper level ridging will spread across the area today which will bring quiet weather. This is in response to the upper level trough digging into the Northern Rockies. Did raise lows a touch with what looks like a mixed environment through the night as winds turn from the west to northwest as a trough of low pressure moves through. The low levels remain fairly mixed through the day on Friday and this could lead to some diurnally driven snow showers, possibly a few sprinkles where precipitation rate is lighter. Temperatures will be a little cooler than Thursday and still about 15 degrees below normal.
The coldest temperatures yet this season are expected tonight, followed by warmer temperatures on Thursday. A very cold and dry airmass in place from yesterday's cold front passage will allow temperatures to plummet overnight to near record low temperatures for late October. The trough and associated cold front that delivered breezy and cold conditions to northern Arizona today was in the process of moving eastward.
Cloud cover will continue to increase across from west to east this morning as a warm front propagates in from Montana. This warm front quickly occludes through the day on Thursday as it continues to propagate east across North Dakota.
228 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019 With high pressure at the sfc, dry conditions are expected through Thursday afternoon. Aloft, northwest flow will give way to another upper trough tonight. As that trough slides east on Friday, northwest flow will dominate again. Temperatures will be a little warmer today, though still below average, in between upper troughs.
Evening weather balloon from Boise shows quite a bit of warming aloft in last 24h (about 25 degrees at 10kft MSL) as the cold low exits and an upper ridge builds into the region.
Overnight temperatures have gradually dropped into the upper 20s but as clouds move east this morning, expect temperatures to drop into the lower 20s across far northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri. Skies will then clear from west to east with temperatures only warming into the upper 30s to possibly the low 40s. A trough will swing through the Northern Plains with a slight chance of of light rain showers working down into far north-central Missouri.
This as an upper level low is progressing into the Middle Mississippi River Valley. This feature progress northeast helping push the cold front east across the region today bringing widespread showers and even a few thunderstorms. The high temperature will be met sometime early afternoon or even this morning ahead of the boundary, with temperatures dropping into the 40s for many locations through the late afternoon hours. While the far east may struggle to lower in the valleys because of clouds think the ridges will get into the upper 20s. High pressure will continue to push east across the area Friday leading to mostly sunny skies, but we will remain diurnally limited, with highs topping out into the upper 40s to around 50s degrees. The shower activity will decrease in coverage through the afternoon as a cold front quickly pushes east.
338 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019 Upper level low pressure system was currently making its way through the region early this morning. freezing surface temps continued to filter east and southeast across the CWA. At 08z the freezing line was located from near McAlester to Muskogee to just north of Fort Smith. the upper wave trof axis is forecast to be exiting the region around mid to late morning with mostly clear skies expected for the CWA this afternoon. These conditions should allow for most locations to again be below freezing Tonight. Breezy southerly winds and warmer temps are in the forecast for Friday ahead of a weak dry cold front expected to move through the region Friday night.
Today through Friday An upper level trough has now moved east of the FA leaving the Combined Panhandles under northwest flow aloft. Tonight, temperatures will drop below freezing once again across the area. Another cold front is progged to move through the area early Friday morning around sunrise. Areas in the south to southeast Texas Panhandle will still be able to reach the low 50s for a daytime high. While the north to northwest areas may only reach the low to mid 40s.
307 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019 After the cold start this morning, warmer than yesterday, but still cool temperatures, are expected this afternoon with highs in the 40s and 50s. Winds will then shift back towards the north Friday as another cold front moves across the region.
A few bands of light flurries will be possible from this high deck mainly north of a line from KCOE to KCQV.
A positive tilt upper trof over the central CONUS will continue to advect off to the east tonight, as more energy dives south out of Canada. S/W ridging ahead of that feature will provide for a quiet night across the region. For Thursday night and Friday, a decent looking mid level trof is expected to move across the region.
As skies slowly clear tonight, radiational cooling, along with continued cold air moving into West Central Texas, from the northwest, will help create overnight lows below freezing. Overnight, lows will again drop below freezing, and by sunrise Friday morning, lows in the upper 20s to around 30 look likely.
321 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019 Ongoing drizzle/freezing drizzle/snow will quickly exit east this morning. Clear skies tonight will allow temps to fall into the upper 20s, with potential for lows in the low to mid 20s as represented by the lower end of model guidance.
/issued 248 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019/ The deep upper trough that has brought very cold temperatures and wintry precipitation to the area over the past few days will begin to move out of the Plains states tonight. Continued cold advection on the backside of the trough will allow for very cold (near record) temperatures tonight, with values in the teens across northwest Oklahoma and twenties elsewhere. Progressive upper flow will send another trough diving southeastward out of Canada into the northern Plains on Friday. An associated cold front will cross the area Friday into Friday night bringing a renewed push of colder air into the region, but will likely be devoid of precipitation.
339 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 A frontal passage today will bring strong wind gusts and much cooler conditions. Areas of patchy morning rain will become more convective this afternoon as the warm sector of low pressure crossing Ohio expands. With the advance of that systems cold front, a line of showers and storms, and possibly some isolated cells in advance may become severe and generate damaging gusts. Warm advection should initially protect from surface gust via an inversion and resulting mixing inhibition; however, passage of the cold front this evening should aggravate that parameter via cold advection at the top of the boundary layer. With passage of the cold front, a temperature drop of approximately 25 degrees may be experienced overnight.
329 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019 A cold front, currently north of Edmonton Alberta, is progged to drop through Nebraska tonight setting off snow showers across nrn Nebraska.
Upper trough axis responsible for today's precip is currently centered over eastern Colorado this afternoon. Dry air sampled below 4 kft on the TOP 12Z sounding despite precipitation observed on radar was a good indication that snowfall amounts may be on the lower end, despite the likelihood of light snow continuing through the early evening. Sunny skies return for Halloween with overall light winds veering to the north as a weak cold front passes through. Snow cover should be minimal and not have an impact on temps so have increased highs given the ample sunshine and weak cool air advection with readings in the lower 40s. Our next upper level trough will progress toward the region during the day and move over late. An associated surface cold front should push through northeastern Kansas midday.
We expect 2 to 4 inches across the northern zones by the time the snow tapers off tonight, especially the higher elevations of Osceola County with lesser amounts closer to Lake Michigan.
355 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019 The cold front currently extends over the eastern portions of the area this morning and is quickly moving east. The showers will end from west to east through the morning hours, as drier air along with high pressure builds in. A cold one is on tap for tonight, with lows falling into the low 30s for much of the area. Temperatures will fall below freezing for a couple of hours early on Friday, so have issued a freeze warning for areas generally north of the Natchez Trace Corridor.
153 AM MDT Thu Oct 31 2019 Anchored western NOAM ridge with associated mean central NOAM troughing will continue in the period, supporting local active NW flow. Anomalously deep/cold upper trough will push east as the next ridge topping clipper shifts toward the region. Much warmer day expected today (although still below climo norms) with 30s and 40s expected for highs. Cold front will shift through the region later tonight with winds turning NW and increasing.
Temperatures will be in the 20s with wind chill values in the low to upper teens. Winds will continue to be from the north and will make it feel cooler. Overnight lows will eventually drop below freezing for most locations.
Deep moisture remains over the region and a cold front is currently cutting just across our northwest. Upper low/deep trough over the eastern plains will move across the OH valley and up to near the great lakes by days end. That will put the cold front on the move, which is expected to be east of I-65 by 12Z, and east of the CWA around 18Z. Most locations will be at or below freezing by midnight. Long wave upper trough remains over the much of the US into the weekend but another upper jet carves out a pretty good axis by the weekend. This upper axis will help push another cold front across the mid-state on Sat. No pcpn expected but it will extend mornings with freezing temps through Mon.
1034 PM MDT Wed Oct 30 2019 Current surface analysis shows high pressure centered across eastern ID. Upper level analysis shows positively tilted trough moving across the central Plains, with ridging along the west coast. Pcpn will generally hold off until later Thursday night and then areas of light snow will push south across the area through midday Friday as a cold front tracks across the region.
With a deep longwave trough working through the center of North America, we will remain colder than normal. A subtle 700-850mb trough will traverse the area from west to east, but omega is very weakly negative and moisture limited. By Friday, the aforementioned trough will still be working through the local area, meaning light rain and snow showers will continue for periods of the day. Cool northwest flow and dry conditions will follow the departure of the trough as we head into the weekend. The models do suggest a couple of fast moving northern stream troughs moving through, but the speed and strength of these systems is still rather uncertain.
232 AM MDT Thu Oct 31 2019 Arctic high pressure is firmly entrenched across the rockies this morning with observed MSLPs near 1042 mb in northern Colorado. Gradients will relax as the high begins to move to the southeast later this evening. Not much in the way of weather is expected Thursday as high pressure remain in place for the most part. High clouds and some light snow will be possible overnight along a fast moving cold front.
342 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019 Light snow ended early this morning shortly before 1 AM as the upper trough axis passed through eastern Kansas. Clouds have quickly dissipated as well leaving skies clear and winds have decreased as high pressure has moved in from the west. Expect highs to warm into the low to mid 40s across the cwa this afternoon. Clear skies and light winds are expected this evening and tonight, but temperatures will quickly fall off into the lower 30s by sunset and then continue to cool into the mid 20s overnight.
Temperatures today will be slightly warmer in comparison to yesterday and will aid in melting off the remaining snow on the ground in southern Idaho.
1131 PM MDT Wed Oct 30 2019 Snow ending across the plains this afternoon as upper low pulls away into the central plains, and will end snow chances at all locations with new forecast.
At the surface, high pressure is situated over the TX Panhandle with an unseasonably cold airmass still in place. This feature is not expected to bring any precip, but will push another cold front through on Fri. Near normal temps are expected to continue into Mon, but will not last long, as another cold front moves through Mon night.
459 AM MDT Thu Oct 31 2019 Arctic high pressure is firmly entrenched across the rockies this morning with observed MSLPs near 1042 mb in northern Colorado. Gradients will relax as the high begins to move to the southeast later this evening. Not much in the way of weather is expected Thursday as high pressure remain in place for the most part. High clouds and some light snow will be possible overnight along a fast moving cold front.
640 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019 A cold front, currently north of Edmonton Alberta, is progged to drop through Nebraska tonight setting off snow showers across nrn Nebraska.
Light snow ended early this morning shortly before 1 AM as the upper trough axis passed through eastern Kansas. Clouds have quickly dissipated as well leaving skies clear and winds have decreased as high pressure has moved in from the west. Expect highs to warm into the low to mid 40s across the cwa this afternoon. Clear skies and light winds are expected this evening and tonight, but temperatures will quickly fall off into the lower 30s by sunset and then continue to cool into the mid 20s overnight.
Movement has been little and refuses to develop south over the far eastern CWA under the upper trough. Models suggest the trough will move east this morning with upper ridging building over the western CWA. Should be a dry but cold Halloween with temepratures in the lower 30s by evening and dropping into the mid and upper 20s by 9 PM. Models have trended a bit faster with the next upper trough. All of these waves appear rather weak and therefore confidence in precip coverage is very low - hence the low PoP.
/issued 334 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019/ An upper level trough is centered over northern Missouri with west flow over West Texas and southeast New Mexico. Clearing skies and light, northerly winds behind a cold front are resulting in temperatures plummeting across the area. An upper trough will move over the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Friday which will send a cold front south towards the CWA.
1032 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 Currently - A mid upper level inverted trough analyzed on water vapor imagery is currently centered south of western Cuba. North of this feature remains a ridge axis that extends from the subtropical ridge that is currently parked just northeast of the Bahamas. This ridge is starting to flatten in response to a front moving across the southeast U. Regardless the influence of the ridge is confining much of the shower activity to the lowest levels. Current land-based observations show temperatures in the lower to mid 80s with an east to southeast wind around 10 mph. Given the subsidence provided from the ridge along with the very dry air mass in place, see no need for any changes to current forecast package. Ridge in place will keep winds light to gentle through the period.
By late tonight into early Friday morning high pressure will build into the area and temperatures will fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s.
As a result, light snow is likely over a much of Central MT, with the highest snow accumulations in the Little Belt and Big Snowy mountains.
Temperatures are running a little warmer than this time yesterday, but are still well below normal for the end of October. from teens in the lower valleys to single digits in the higher valleys.
344 AM MDT Thu Oct 31 2019 A cold front will sweep through northeast Montana today with rain and snow likely by this afternoon, changing to snow this evening and tonight as precipitation shifts south and finally comes to an end. Wibaux County may actually see the highest snowfall totals, and combined with breezy conditions tonight and Friday, conditions may be marginally supportive of a Winter Weather Advisory.
Under lighter wind conditions, early morning temperatures are several degrees cooler than 24 hours ago most locations. A large upper level high pressure ridge over the eastern Pacific and west coast will dominate the Norcal weather pattern through the short term forecast and beyond.
Main change to the short term forecast was to raise overnight temperatures in the higher elevations based on what is already occurring this morning. Subsidence warming under an upper ridge has brought a jump in higher elevation temperatures this morning, with readings in the 30s and 40s in non-valley locations above about 7000-7500 feet. Also, humidities remain remarkably low with ridges in the single digits and teens and many valleys in the 30 to 50% percent range despite the cold temperatures.
/issued 307 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019/ After the cold start this morning, warmer than yesterday, but still cool temperatures, are expected this afternoon with highs in the 40s and 50s. Winds will then shift back towards the north Friday as another cold front moves across the region.
555 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019 Weak upper level ridging will spread across the area today which will bring quiet weather. This is in response to the upper level trough digging into the Northern Rockies. Did raise lows a touch with what looks like a mixed environment through the night as winds turn from the west to northwest as a trough of low pressure moves through. The low levels remain fairly mixed through the day on Friday and this could lead to some diurnally driven snow showers, possibly a few sprinkles where precipitation rate is lighter. Temperatures will be a little cooler than Thursday and still about 15 degrees below normal.
Much warmer air aloft will move over the region bringing a return to near normal daytime temperatures by the weekend. NE winds at 10-20 kts along and south of the Mogollon Rim and the higher terrains of Yavapai County to decrease in speed through 18Z, otherwise surface winds with variable directions to 10 kts.
519 AM MDT Thu Oct 31 2019 Anchored western NOAM ridge with associated mean central NOAM troughing will continue in the period, supporting local active NW flow. Anomalously deep/cold upper trough will push east as the next ridge topping clipper shifts toward the region. Much warmer day expected today (although still below climo norms) with 30s and 40s expected for highs. Cold front will shift through the region later tonight with winds turning NW and increasing.
Some areas where the winds are still a bit breezy are seeing slightly warmer temperatures. The trough that brought us the colder temperatures and windy conditions, currently centered over the Four Corners, will move further east today. This will allow an upward trend in temperatures as ridging over the eastern Pacific moves inland. A blocky pattern looks to dominate the weather pattern over the region at least for the next five to seven days in the form of a rex block (upper level pattern where ridging sits directly north of a trough) over the eastern Pacific.
638 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019 Updated for 12Z aviation discussion 12Z TAF discussion: The cold front has moved to the east of the area, but a mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions continue to prevail at TAF sites this morning as the rainshowers continue. /15/ The cold front currently extends over the eastern portions of the area this morning and is quickly moving east. The showers will end from west to east through the morning hours, as drier air along with high pressure builds in. A cold one is on tap for tonight, with lows falling into the low 30s for much of the area. Temperatures will fall below freezing for a couple of hours early on Friday, so have issued a freeze warning for areas generally north of the Natchez Trace Corridor.
Still expecting a cold front to move through the area on Friday.
Today and Friday: Models continue to keep the ridge of high pressure off the coast and keep the Inland Northwest cool and dry for the period. By this afternoon, the ridge strengthens and carries a dry, warming trend through Friday.
High pressure across the state, albeit weakening ahead of an approaching front, remains in control today. Convective instability remains limited today due to low level inversion/cap that does not appear to be overcome much even with sfc temps warming into the lower 90s. Mid levels remain very dry and warmer than normal and lapse rates are not impressive. This is consistent with the consensus of the high resolution model guidance as well.