Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A weak upper low will move slowly through the high pressure in place early in the week, followed by a return of strong high pressure aloft midweek. A ridge of high pressure remains in place over most of Utah and southwest Wyoming this evening, with a Pacific low starting to encroach on the area from the west. Because of this ridge, much warmer than seasonal temperatures were observed this afternoon, with a few places even breaking records for the day. While the best thunderstorms associated with the low remain well northwest of the CWA, this isolated activity in Utah is expected to continue through the evening hours, and has produced a few wind gusts in the 35-45 mph range.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will create patchy issues through at least midnight, but will likely avoid impacting most main TAF sites through tonight (with the highest chance of impact at JAN).
The showers were in response to a low pressure system over Nevada but our area remains under a dry ridge of high pressure.
615 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016 19z/2 pm surface analysis shows deepening 994 mb low pressure northeast of Georgian Bay Canada with a frontal boundary extending sw across southeast IN and far southeast IL approaching the Ohio river. A 551 dm 500 mb low over western Ontario with a fairly strong upper level trof over the Great Lakes region and Ohio river valley with IL caught in its nw upper level flow. Lows tonight mostly in the lower 60s with a few upper 50s possible from I-74 north.
Storms have diminished due to loss of heating and stability of the lower boundary layer from earlier storms.
Dewpoints in western WI have been able to hold up in the low/mid 50s, allowing for 500- 1000 j/kg of sbCAPE out in western WI. The clouds and cooler temperatures aloft will also take a bite out of our temperatures tomorrow, with pretty much all guidance holding highs below the 70 degree mark across the entire MPX area tomorrow.
A few showers will linger across the Southern Appalachian Region this evening as a cold front pushes into the area.
Thunderstorms developed rapidly this afternoon in association with an upper low centered in Western Nevada. The upper low will move into Northeast Nevada on Monday, with the thunderstorms expected to develop in Southeast Oregon and Southwest Idaho (mainly over the higher terrain) during the afternoon.
653 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016 Bands of se moving showers now over Southeast Texas on NW flank of upper low. /ISSUED / Scattered showers have developed across much of Southeast Texas this afternoon as temperatures have risen into the low to mid 80s. This activity is moving from northeast to southwest, with development and movement aided by a gradually decaying shear axis stretching from the Lower Texas Coast into Louisiana per afternoon water vapor imagery. Still concerned about a localized minor flood threat where convection trains or along colliding outflow boundaries with the high precipitable water values in place (1.
926 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 A cold front will cross the region from the west through midnight.
Storm motion should increase late this afternoon as the stronger NW flow aloft associated with a short- wave trough dropping south-sewd through eastern CO moves over. Storm motion will be slow as the ridge axis moves overhead so localized flash flooding will be a likely concern.
855 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 An approaching cold front will stall near the forecast area Monday.
Fog chances are on the low side due to the 5-10 mph SW wind expected to keep conditions well mixed through tonight. Monday will be mainly rain-free as a surface cyclone pulls northward into Ontario and Quebec provinces. With partly sunny skies and a fairly warm boundary layer forecast, temperatures in the lower 80s are likely to be realized in the valleys.
We can't rule out isolated showers over the valleys this morning as the last vestiges of an upper trough slide through, so we've maintained some low pops in the valleys. However, this should all dry out by this afternoon as an upper ridge noses in over us and conditions stabilize. The aforementioned upper ridge will build in over the PacNW today and control our weather at least through the upcoming weekend.
639 AM EST Thu Jan 26 2017 Cold front now working its way eastward through our eastern counties. Ceilings are not expected to get overly low as winds keep the lower levels well-mixed.
526 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 Temperatures today are expected to rise into the lower 20s to lower 30s with the cooler readings across the deep snow cover north.
A fairly strong cold frontal boundary was located across north Florida while weak high pressure east of the Bahamas with associated ridge axis across the southern FL peninsula continue to pull further seaward in advance of the front. The cold front should lie somewhere along the Treasure Coast by sunrise Fri morning. Gusty SWRLY winds ahead of approaching cold front (currently over north Florida) across the coastal waters today.
Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper level closed low spinning eastward across the Great Lakes region, with the axis of the trough extending southwestward and into the southern Plains. The surface cold front that sparked showers and thunderstorms yesterday has progressed southward and extends just south of the Interstate 59 corridor. Gusty northwest winds persisted behind this front, and although this has brought in some cooler air, the combination of lingering cloud cover and boundary layer mixing has kept our temps from falling too much over the last few hours. The upper low will shift into the New England area during the overnight hours, with zonal flow overtaking the upper level pattern across the TN Valley. However, the cooler airmass will continue to filter in at the surface and overnight lows will still fall to around freezing by daybreak on Friday.
1044 AM EST Thu Jan 26 2017 It will be breezy behind a cold front this afternoon. It will be breezy and dry behind the cold front this afternoon. supports high temperatures in the lower 60s west to the lower 70s east. A broad upper trough will develop over the eastern CONUS Friday.
The influence of the upper trough wanes today as it retreats east.
330 AM PST Thu Jan 26 2017 Dry weather will prevail over the Central California Interior during the next several days as high pressure builds into the area.
/issued 630 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2017/ For the ArkLaTex, we are locked in with NW flow for the next several days with a reinforcing shot of high pressure to keep the pattern through the weekend. Little change with a slack overnight, but more sfc gusts expected from NW on Friday with the high pressure second string reinforcements. Under clear skies and light northwest winds, overnight low temperatures forecast to fall to around freezing across the Arklatex.
This is in the form of mixed rain and snow with low ceiling that will begin to improve as the trough moves through the region. Upper low overhead likely a strong contributor early this morning, but will exit into Ontario prior to 12z. The exception will be southeast of the glacial ridge, particularly in the immediate Detroit area where temps remain near 40 degrees and where where arrival of colder air during the peak heating period may prevent a changeover to snow at all. Low pressure exiting the Great Lakes will merge with the remains of the Atlantic coast nor'easter over Quebec today.
610 AM EST Thu Jan 26 2017 The cold front has pushed through the region this morning, though the much colder air is lagging a bit behind it. For the short term period, a broad upper level trough will establish itself across much of the eastern CONUS.
645 AM EST Thu Jan 26 2017 A cold front will move east across NC this morning. Once spotty light precip falls into the sub cloud layer, temperatures will evaporatively cool a few degrees into the low and mid 50s. Otherwise, a mid level trough and attendant sfc cold front will cross central NC this morning. Lows tonight will bottom out in the low- mid 30s, and in the upper 20s-lower 30s Friday night.
A deep upper level trough will dig over the Great Lakes and linger through the weekend with a series of short waves moving across the area. Trough is now into SE lower Michigan and will move through NW OH by Mid Morning.
416 AM MST Thu Jan 26 2017 Per recent PV analysis, final upper disturbances rotating around closed upper low located over eastern Michigan early this morning is expected to provide for a few more rounds of generally light to moderate snow at times over portions of the forecast district into tonight. East-west oriented upper trough will drop south of the area with western U. S upper ridge translating in aloft. Models show a northerly surge on Friday which actually brings warmer temperatures to the region as it advects warmer air in overtop of the ridge.
632 AM EST Thu Jan 26 2017 Cold front will continue to push off to the east early this morning with temperatures falling into the 30s behind the front. A narrow dry slot behind the front and in advance of the 700 mb trough axis will pass overhead around dawn with some breaks in the clouds likely through mid morning. Could see a mix with a little rain in the Cumberland Valley early in the evening, but temperatures will quickly fall to the freezing mark and below at the surface with a sub-freezing column aloft. Not expecting much if any snow accumulation from this as saturation will be tough to come by in the dendritic growth zone, thus leading to light enough snow rates to negate road issues following above freezing temperatures Friday afternoon.
630 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 For the ArkLaTex, we are locked in with NW flow for the next several days with a reinforcing shot of high pressure to keep the pattern through the weekend. Little change with a slack overnight, but more sfc gusts expected from NW on Friday with the high pressure second string reinforcements. Under clear skies and light northwest winds, overnight low temperatures forecast to fall to around freezing across the Arklatex.
High pressure centered well east of the Keys will keep a south to southwesterly breeze in place locally, while a cold front slowly drops through the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Expect gentle to occasionally moderate south to southwest breezes today well ahead of a slow cold front in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Back in the year 1905, the high temperature in Key West was only 51F and the low temperature was 44F, both records for the date.
/DL/ Generally seasonable, though noticeably lower, high temperatures are on tap for today as CAA continues behind the cold front that's now out of the area. Despite generally unimpeded insolation, falling low level heights with an upper trough combined with the aforementioned W/NW cold advection will help to keep highs down into the 50s across most of the area. It will be cooler tonight due to lighter wind/radiational cooling.
Reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air has arrived under weak cold air advection in the low-levels ongoing. With a cooler starting point and dry ground, even with higher based clouds overhead, temperatures should be able to drop back towards average tonight, if not slightly below across our northern zones.
GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: The influence of the upper trough wanes today as it retreats east.
958 AM EST Thu Jan 26 2017 Small craft should exercise caution through fri night as cooler drier air continues to surge southeast across much of the northern gulf. Northerly winds and seas will diminish on sat as high pressure builds east across much of the northern gulf. Northerly winds and seas will rebuild late sat night through early mon in the wake of a second cold front that moves across the marine area late sat night through early sun.
440 AM MST Thu Jan 26 2017 An upper trough will cross the region today and breezy northwesterly winds will develop. Dry weather is expected tonight due to synoptic scale subsidence as a weak upper ridge crosses the area behind the departing upper trough.
Temperatures have fallen into the mid teens across the northwestern South Plains as expected with all but a few locations in the Rolling Plains below freezing. Another weak cold front will slide into the area around sunset which will do little other than reinforcing the cool airmass in place. One small twist early on is that some of the NWP now suggest an area of low-mid clouds (between 5,000 and 15,000 feet) will develop across much of the CWA tomorrow and persist much of the day as a trough axis sinks southward over the region. Assuming these clouds do pan out they would limit insolation and favor a cooler end to the week. The second half of the weekend will be very similar to the first half though about 5 degrees warmer.
With moisture eroding and more stable conditions pushing in behind this wave/upper level trough, will not be issuing any winter highlights. Temps will be sticking below the freezing mark in most areas today with plenty of teens expected for the mountains and high valleys. Slow moderation of temperatures moves in Friday afternoon as heights start bouncing back up as the western ridge nudges inland, shifts deep northerly flow out into the plains. High pressure will be settling into the area through the weekend with mainly dry and warmer weather anticipated. Western ridge kicks inland around midweek as another strong Pacific system rolls into the western states. Showers will generally be confined to the higher elevations and will obscure mountain tops at times.
525 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 A large scale trough will remain over the Great Lakes and Midwest extending well westward into the Southwest over the upcoming day.
Clouds are expected to fill back in this afternoon, mainly in the northern half, as the 500 mb trough axis passes through and midlevel temps fall.
834 AM EST Thu Jan 26 2017 A cold front now across the Panhandle will continue to move slowly south and east the remainder of the day with the front moving into the northern Nature Coast by mid afternoon, then into the Tampa Bay area this evening, and then exiting the southern forecast area by later tonight. Areas of MVFR ceilings will impact the terminal sites through early tonight as a cold front moves south into the region. South to southwest across the waters this morning will shift to the north across the northern water later this afternoon, and across central and southern sections tonight as a cold front works it way south through the region.
936 AM EST Thu Jan 26 2017 Cold front moving across SE GA this morning, will cross NE FL early this afternoon.
Of course the Florida Keys are in the lower 70s. What is driving the weather is high pressure ridging down from the central Rockies.
647 AM EST Thu Jan 26 2017 A cold front will push across the area and off the coast this morning into this afternoon.
538 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 Large-scale upper trough prevailing over the Nation's midsection this morning as ridging continues to build across the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. Further south, expect dry conditions with highs warming into the lower to middle 30s with winds a little weaker than yesterday's.
Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s. In the low levels of the atmosphere, an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across the southeastern United States this afternoon. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, a ridge of high pressure will be located over Cuba today. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a ridge of high pressure will be centered over the southeastern Bahamas this afternoon.
946 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016 High pressure was centered over northern Minnesota this morning and is forecast to move slightly southeast towards Wisconsin. For today, high pressure will remain over the region suppressing convection and maintaining dry weather. High pressure over the region maintaining a clear sky and light winds. High pressure will move southeast into the Western Great Lakes Region today, with increasing south/southeasterly return flow over the Northern Plains. Return flow continues tonight with a few clouds moving through as an embedded s/wv trough moves east across Canada.
Further north over northern Tennessee west into northern Arkansas, a cold front remains in place. This cold front should remain fairly stationary throughout the day. This should keep a slight to widely scattered chance of showers in the forecast from a line near Bridgeport southwest to just south of the Moulton areas in Alabama this morning. This higher (but scattered pop) should wane and push east as the late afternoon hours go on. A cold front will shift winds to the NW and N with low clouds expected to move in for several hours.
1127 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 A broad area of high pressure will dominate through the remainder of the week.
436 AM PDT TUE MAY 17 2016 High pressure will bring warm, dry weather to the region today. Wednesday breezy conditions develop for the afternoon and evening, as a vigorous cold front moves through Washington and north Idaho.
726 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 A cold front will slowly drop south through the course of the day today.
908 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 A cold front will slowly drop south through the course of the day today.
Gilchrist Previous short term discussion: High pressure aloft will continue over Northeast Montana today with warm and dry conditions under sunny skies. Upper low moves from British Columbia to the Pacific NW Wednesday Night.
Temperatures are heating up quickly despite the cloud coverage, so there is still confidence in the high thunderstorm chances after 19z. A ridge of high pressure to the northeast of Florida, and developing low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico are setting up southerly winds over the coastal waters today.
1058 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 Rain chances will accompany a weak cold front today and tonight. Southern system will drift through the Mid-Atlantic and toward the southeastern states tonight, as the cold front slowly sinks southward across the region. Main upper level trough will kick both systems southward Wednesday morning, bringing and end to the showers in the south. High pressure will follow, bringing quiet weather through the rest of the period.
Further north over northern Tennessee west into northern Arkansas, a cold front remains in place. This cold front should remain fairly stationary throughout the day. This should keep a slight to widely scattered chance of showers in the forecast from a line near Bridgeport southwest to just south of the Moulton areas in Alabama this morning. This higher (but scattered pop) should wane and push east as the late afternoon hours go on.
743 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 Scattered showers will accompany a weak cold front today. Previous discussion-Will have to deal with a couple of systems today, one moving south of the area and a weak cold front which will sink southward from the Great Lakes. Have continued the idea of keeping the highest pops over the southern reaches of my forecast area. Southern system will drift through the Mid-Atlantic and toward the southeastern states tonight, as the cold front slowly sinks southward across the region. Main upper level trough will kick both systems southward Wednesday morning, bringing and end to the showers in the south. High pressure will follow, bringing quiet weather through the rest of the period.
641 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016 A slightly cooler post frontal air mass will spread across Minnesota and Wisconsin today. The upper trough axis is currently passing through eastern central MN and west central WI, which is producing a few pockets of mid clouds. Even with the cooler air mass in place today, temperatures should warm into the lower 60s given the expected cloud trend, possibly even making it into the mid 60s.
1233 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 Increasing moisture will head our way today ahead of a cold front that will drift southeast from the Great Lakes.
Upper low was near Elko, NV this morning and moving south. By Wednesday morning the low will be in srn Arizona while a transitional upper ridge moves into our area from the northwest. For today the upper low will still be close enough for isolated showers and thunderstorms near the ID/NV border, but the upper ridge will dominate tonight through Wednesday with clear skies and warmer wx. The upper level low currently located over central Nevada is expected to continue moving south and a transitional ridge will build in from the west today. By Wednesday, the upper level ridge will begin to weaken as another upper level low moves south swiftly along the Canadian coast. A slight chance of showers will exist on Wednesday afternoon in the extreme Northern portions of the CWA as this low gets closer.
A cool moist upper low will remain across the area through wednesday. A second and more energetic upper low will stall over the Pacific Northwest through the end of the week with a strong southerly flow over the Great Basin.
933 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 High pressure will move off the coast later today. Low pressure is expected to move across southern Virginia tonight.
/Issued 444 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016/ A closed upper low will track slowly east out of the Great Basin and Four Corners Region today and across the central and southern Rockies Wednesday and Wednesday night.
A cool moist upper low will remain across the area through Wednesday. A second and more energetic upper low will stall over the Pacific Northwest through the end of the week with a strong southerly flow over the Great Basin. A cool upper low is diving into southern Nevada and Arizona today, with a moist and somewhat unstable airmass in place over Utah and southwest Wyoming.
High pressure off of the mid Atlc coast will continue to slide further into the western Atlc over the next 24hrs.
640 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016 For today, high pressure will remain over the region suppressing convection and maintaining dry weather. High pressure over the region maintaining a clear sky and light winds. High pressure will move southeast into the Western Great Lakes Region today, with increasing south/southeasterly return flow over the Northern Plains. Return flow continues tonight with a few clouds moving through as an embedded s/wv trough moves east across Canada.
An upper ridge will remain anchored over the state and provide abundant sunshine. Some moisture and weak energy rotating around the upper low over the southwest could fire an isolated shower over the southwest mountains this afternoon and evening. Water vapor imagery shows strong upper ridge over southern Saskatchewan and eastern Montana, with a low over the southern Great Basin and central Rockies. Slightly better chance of afternoon and evening convection exists Wednesday over our west as deepening Pac coast trof initiates height falls and backing flow aloft. Temperatures will continue to rise over the next two days per the persistent ridging and gradual shift to downslope winds.
839 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 High pressure located off the Middle Atlantic coast early this morning will lose its influence over our weather. Weak low pressure is forecast to develop over North Carolina today before passing off the coast tonight. High pressure is expected to build into our region from the northwest for the second half of the work week.
1019 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016 15z analysis places a warm front roughly from the TN/MS border into central Arkansas. Temps will be tricky this afternoon and dependent the movement on the warm front. These showers are mainly occurring along and north of a warm front that stretches from Hot Springs, Arkansas to Tupelo, Mississippi. the front will begin drifting back south as a cold front. Meanwhile, the cold front that moves through the Mid-South tonight will sink southward and stall out near the Gulf Coast.
A cutoff upper low will slowly meander towards the combined Panhandles today and tomorrow which will allow for unsettled weather to continue after the current TAF period. /Issued 444 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016/ A closed upper low will track slowly east out of the Great Basin and Four Corners Region today and across the central and southern Rockies Wednesday and Wednesday night.
A ridge of high pressure to the northeast of Florida, and developing low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico are setting up southerly winds over the coastal waters today.