Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
545 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020 Ridge of higher pressure in place across the Great Lakes will provide SKC through the TAF issuance. Impressive upper low on water vapor imagery over far southern Lake MI will continue to dive into the southeast US and become cutoff over the next few days.
The upper low that brought unsettled weather to the region for the past several days shifts east of the region today bringing clearing and temperatures around ten degrees higher than yesterday. A weak, broad upper trough then returns a showery pattern to the region Monday.
Quiet pattern prevails across the region as upper low exits eastward and eastern Pacific ridging gradually builds in. Temperatures will be warmer today as a result. Area temperatures at 2 am were generally 2 to 5 degrees warmer than the same yesterday, with some high and mid cloud cover.
A pretty stagnant flow pattern is expected through the next several days with a very weak persistent trough over the eastern Pacific and high pressure over northeastern Mexico. High and low temperatures may not vary more than 2 degrees each day, with lower desert highs in the low to mid 100s and lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Earlier cluster of storms with a fairly expansive area of cooler cloud tops has shifted south of the forecast area, but additional storms are threading the needle between Springfield and Decatur. A large 1030 mb high pressure system centered over southeast Canada will continue to supply cool/dry air on east/northeast flow into the Midwest. Highs should be several degrees cooler than yesterday, mainly in the mid to upper 70s. Little change overnight with clear skies and east flow, lows should dip into the low/mid 50s. While this is occurring, a strong upper level ridge over the Plains will edge east into the Midwest.
/issued 252 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020/ The upper level ridge that has been dominating our weather the past several days will move a shade to the east today taking a mid level moisture plume along with it. Upper level high pressure will remain the main feature of the forecast through the week.
/issued 359 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020/ (Today and Tonight) Upper level ridging will continue to dominate the weather across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours. Highs today will be above seasonal normals, in the low to mid 90s.
604 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020 The large area of high pressure at the surface centered east of Lake Superior this morning, will maintain the quiet weather for most of the area through tonight. The upper level ridge axis is expected to shift slowly from the Missouri River Valley into the Upper Mississippi River Valley today and tonight. As this occurs, short wave troughs coming out of the Pacific Northwest trough will start to climb up the back side of the ridge. A stagnant upper flow pattern will persist through mid-week with troughing slowly working across the Pac Northwest into the northern Rockies and upper level ridging across the Upper Midwest.
Highs today will remain below normal reaching the mid 60s most areas, then highs Monday will head back toward normal with readings in the lower to mid 70s in many locations away from northeast gradient wind off Lake Ontario. A Rex block will dominate the pattern across the eastern United States for much of the week, with a stubborn closed low over the southeast states and a building ridge to the north across the Midwest and Great Lakes. Strong subsidence and dry air associated with high pressure surface and aloft will bring plenty of sunshine by day and clear, starlit skies at night. Lows Monday night will be in the lower 50s in most locations, with upper 40s in the cooler Southern Tier valleys and North Country.
459 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020 The subtropical ridge axis was situated from the Big Bend Country of West Texas north and east across the Central Plains. A persistence-type forecast will lead to highs in the mid and upper 90s across central and south central KS while highs over southeast Kansas top out in the low to mid 90s. A cold front will sag south toward into the Central Plains remaining north of our forecast area but helping to break down the persistent ridge.
A cold front will push into the Mid-South later this afternoon allowing the potential for showers mainly in our northern counties. The current synoptic pattern consists of a cutoff low over Lake Michigan, a narrow, highly amplified ridge over the Plains that extends well into Central Canada and a deep trough over the Western US. The trough over the Plains will become broader as it shifts East, becoming oriented from Lake Superior, Southward into East Texas by Midweek.
347 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2020 Temperatures trend cooler than average this week. Our region sits under the influence of a strong upper level low positioned over the the Pacific Northwest. Surface pressure is rising as low level westerly winds continue to advect cooler air across the Continental Divide. The left exit region of the upper level jet moves over Southwest Montana today, as the closed low begins to move eastward. Transient upper level ridging follows on Monday, providing a fair weather day with slightly warmer temperatures nearing 70F.
522 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2020 Upper flow is becoming more southwesterly this morning as the deep trough pushes into the Pac NW. As it crosses the area today, a dryline will push through, bringing warmer and drier air to the area. CAMs continue to show storm development within a narrow area north of the dryline and east of the cold front where better moisture will remain. Cooler air will push in for Monday, but most areas will still see max temps in the 80s.
Overnight satellite shows a weak low pressure system spinning off the NorCal Coast.
724 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020 A lingering mid-level trough will maintain variable cloudiness and seasonably cool conditions today with few sprinkles possible, mainly across eastern Vermont.
Dry today with lighter winds and cooler temperatures. Warmer on Monday with winds becoming gusty by the afternoon hours. A cold front will move through northern NV later on Monday, bringing a few light rain showers along with cooler temperatures.
Showers are moving into the region ahead of a low pressure system, that is approaching from the west. The low will move into Idaho and western Montana during this afternoon, and associated cold air aloft will cause the atmosphere to be unstable with continued lowered snow levels and mountain snow accumulations through the day.
Looking at the rest of the forecast for today, an upper low will move across Washington and into the panhandle today with another round of scattered showers mainly across the higher terrain of the forecast area. As we move into Monday, SW flow aloft sets up allowing for a rebound in temperatures as the next upper-level trough looks to setup across the Pac NW.
956 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020 A large area of high pressure over eastern Canada and the northeast will gradually build offshore through the upcoming week. High pressure will remain anchored across New England today. The flow around the high pressure will bring an easterly wind, which will help to keep temperatures below average for this time of year. After a cool start to the day in the 40s and 50s, temperatures will rebound into the lower and middle 70s for highs. Tranquil conditions continue tonight with high pressure in control. The Tri-State on Monday will be situated to the north of a cut-off low across the Southeast states. A continued NE-E flow is forecast which will help limit high temperatures to the lower and middle 70s.
Mid/upper level trof will continue to dive south-southeast through from northeast IN into southwest OH today. Consequently, cooler and less humid conditions should become the rule as north-northeast winds become more prominent. Most locations will stay in the lower half of the 80s, despite abundant sunshine. Cut-off low will meander around the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic through the end of the work week. H5 ridging will build north/west of this low over the FA.
502 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020 Periodic showers and a few thunderstorms are possible today and tonight, mainly south of Pittsburgh, thanks to approaching upper level low pressure. Expect showers to begin to fire in the southeast ridges during the predawn hours with terrain-aided convergence. However, areas near and south of the Mason-Dixon Line will be on the outer fringes of this better forcing, and thus the higher PoPs are placed here.
547 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020 A large area of high pressure over eastern Canada and the northeast will gradually build offshore through the upcoming week. High pressure will remain anchored across New England today. The flow around the high pressure will bring an easterly wind, which will help to keep temperatures below average for this time of year. After a cool start to the day in the 40s and 50s, temperatures will rebound into the lower and middle 70s for highs. Tranquil conditions continue tonight with high pressure in control. The Tri-State on Monday will be situated to the north of a cut-off low across the Southeast states. A continued NE-E flow is forecast which will help limit high temperatures to the lower and middle 70s.
1036 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020 A large area of high pressure over eastern Canada and the northeast will gradually build offshore through the upcoming week. High pressure will remain anchored across New England today. The flow around the high pressure will bring an easterly wind, which will help to keep temperatures below average for this time of year. After a cool start to the day in the 40s and 50s, temperatures will rebound into the lower and middle 70s for highs. Tranquil conditions continue tonight with high pressure in control. The Tri-State on Monday will be situated to the north of a cut-off low across the Southeast states. A continued NE-E flow is forecast which will help limit high temperatures to the lower and middle 70s.
Synoptic flow is dominated by a persistent mean trough position to our west and northwest, with a strong ridge to our east and southeast. Not as much convection today with the trough sharpening and bringing some locally breezy southwest winds this afternoon. By Monday the base of the trough weakens as additional energy carves into the back side of the mean trough position, so the westerly and southwesterly flow will back off a bit and allow a little more moisture in from the east and south for a better chance of thunderstorms Monday afternoon. Ultimately the trough will weaken as the axis shifts into the northern plains. As this happens the high center will reconsolidate south of our area and into a blocking position for any significant moisture transport.
1013 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020 A lingering mid-level trough will maintain variable cloudiness and seasonably cool conditions today with few sprinkles possible, mainly across eastern Vermont.
Upper air analysis showed the main trough over northeast CONUS with an embedded short wave over Indiana and another north of Lake Superior. A broad ridge axis was from Texas to Minnesota. Short wave over Indiana will dive southeast and evolve into the closed low over Ohio Valley this afternoon. Circulation on the west side of this low will drive dry air and lower precipitable water value down to 1 inch Monday according to GFS.
727 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020 A large area of high pressure over eastern Canada and the northeast will gradually build offshore through the upcoming week. High pressure will remain anchored across New England today. The flow around the high pressure will bring an easterly wind, which will help to keep temperatures below average for this time of year. After a cool start to the day in the 40s and 50s, temperatures will rebound into the lower and middle 70s for highs. Tranquil conditions continue tonight with high pressure in control. The Tri-State on Monday will be situated to the north of a cut-off low across the Southeast states. A continued NE-E flow is forecast which will help limit high temperatures to the lower and middle 70s.
/NEW/ Update: No changes are necessary to the short term portion of the forecast at this time 79 Previous Discussion: /Tonight through Sunday Night/ Upper level high pressure will continue to bring warm and quiet weather to North and Central Texas through Sunday night. A gradual increase in Gulf moisture will result in overnight lows tonight and Sunday night from the mid 60s to the lower 70s. The upper-level ridge looks to remain in place as the omega block pattern continues over the U. This will keep temperatures near to a little above normal, with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s, and lows in the 70s each day. The strong subsidence aloft from this ridge will keep rain chances near zero.
956 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020 Showers and an isolated thunderstorm are expected today and tonight, mainly south of Pittsburgh, as an upper level low pressure approaches the Ohio River Valley. The GOES-16 satellite currently displays a low pressure system exiting the Cincinnati area and advancing southeast. Building cloud cover and the overall troughing pattern will keep temperatures 10 degrees below normal.
515 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020 Periodic showers and a few thunderstorms are possible today and tonight, mainly south of Pittsburgh, thanks to approaching upper level low pressure. However, areas near and south of the Mason-Dixon Line will be on the outer fringes of this better forcing, and thus the higher PoPs are placed here.
Cooler and drier conditions will prevail behind the frontal passage for Monday, but a broad upper trough pattern will remain in place through the present week.
341 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2020 Upper flow is becoming more southwesterly this morning as the deep trough pushes into the Pac NW. As it crosses the area today, a dryline will push through, bringing warmer and drier air to the area. CAMs continue to show storm development within a narrow area north of the dryline and east of the cold front where better moisture will remain. Cooler air will push in for Monday, but most areas will still see max temps in the 80s.
KBNA/KMQY could catch one, too, but the low confidence precludes a prevailing inclusion at this point.
We are still locked into the same pattern with the upper low core dropping into the East coast long wave and upper level ridging from Texas into the middle MS River valley. Highs tomorrow in the lower 90s once again with a few mid 90s for good measure.
Deep layer shear continues to be very marginal at 25-30 kts, but cooling aloft associated with the approaching upper low from the OH Valley will bring wet bulb zero heights down to 8500-9000 ft and allow MLCAPE to build to 1500-2200 J/Kg as surface temps warm and low-level moisture increases. RG Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 83 60 82 61 / 20 20 10 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 80 58 80 59 / 20 40 20 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 59 80 58 81 59 / 20 30 10 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 72 55 73 55 / 50 70 30 30 20.
Activity will continue through the afternoon and into late evening as the upper low spins just to our north.
1239 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020 The large area of high pressure at the surface centered east of Lake Superior this morning, will maintain the quiet weather for most of the area through tonight. The upper level ridge axis is expected to shift slowly from the Missouri River Valley into the Upper Mississippi River Valley today and tonight. As this occurs, short wave troughs coming out of the Pacific Northwest trough will start to climb up the back side of the ridge. A stagnant upper flow pattern will persist through mid-week with troughing slowly working across the Pac Northwest into the northern Rockies and upper level ridging across the Upper Midwest.
Large area of cool Canadian high pressure remains centered from Eastern Canada thru the Great Lakes region this afternoon. High pressure center will shift a bit further east tonight into Monday. but pronounced ridging and dry air thru the column will remain overhead. High temps Monday afternoon will warm into the low to mid 70s. High Impact Weather Potential: None Synopsis/Forecast: Troughing over the Pacific NW will translate E during the week while embedded jet maxima rotate into S Canada. Amplified ridging also moves over the Great Lakes as a cut-off upper-level low sits over the Carolinas through the short term.
Deep South Texas enjoyed another nice mid-June day with a rather cool start to the morning and comfortable humidity through the afternoon with dry subsident air aloft with upper level ridging. Tonight will start off rather nice and generally rain free but conditions will change overnight into Monday as a plume of much higher moisture content advects into the area from the Gulf of Mexico in association with the mid-level flow getting pinched with an upper low diving south into the southeastern US. Increasing cloudiness and moisture will keep temperatures slightly below normal and a few degrees cooler than today's highs.
Area of high pressure in the mid to upper levels will continue to provide enough subsidence to suppress significant rain formation across Southeast Texas today and Monday. Although the weather pattern is expected to continue the drier side of the spectrum Monday, sufficient low level moisture, outflow boundaries and convective temperatures in the low 90s could result in a few isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms developing across the Gulf waters and portions of the CWA.
1139 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020 Showers and an isolated thunderstorm are expected today and tonight, mainly south of Pittsburgh, as an upper level low pressure approaches the Ohio River Valley. The GOES-16 satellite currently displays a low pressure system exiting the Cincinnati area and advancing southeast. Building cloud cover and the overall troughing pattern will keep temperatures 10 degrees below normal.
Monday looks to be dry and even warmer than today with rising upper level heights. Highs on Monday will climb into the lower and mid 90s. Lows will generally run in the lower 70s.
A closed upper low will slowly drift east/southeast of the area much of the week. Forecast soundings indicate some stratocumulus may push into the eastern portion of the forecast area late tonight on the periphery of the upper low, but no precipitation is expected as saturation is shallow and trapped below the nocturnal inversion.
High pressure at the surface will remain centered to our northeast today resulting in a light northeast to east wind across the CWA. The morning JAN sounding showed that temperatures in the mid 80s would break the low level inversion. The remainder of our CWA will remain dry with temperatures topping out in the lower 90s. Otherwise, expect the trend for hotter temperatures to continue today with readings reaching the lower 90s, while lows tonight dip back to relatively comfortable levels in the mid to upper 60s under mostly clear skies. Deep layer dry air will hold firm much of the week as our region remains on the eastern periphery of a mid level ridge.
Temps tonight should be around or a degree or two cooler than last night with light easterly winds under generally clear skies. Kluber 241 PM CDT Modest Rex blocking will develop by mid-week as the ridge noted in the short term AFD builds around the north side of a stalled mid- level low over the southeast states.
A little more moisture in the lower levels today with more of an easterly flow up to 85H. This higher moisture will lead to MVFR ceilings over the Coastal Bend after daybreak Monday with.
An upper low will move southeast from the Ohio Valley into the Southeast states early in the week. This will result in unsettled and cooler conditions with more numerous showers and thunderstorms. Upper level low over Ohio will sink southward into TN overnight. Also, weak short wave troughs rotating through upper trough may provide some lift. Have continued the lowest pops across the CSRA where drier air expected. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s as skies become mostly cloudy. In addition a cut off upper level low pressure system descends into the Southern Appalachians.
This low will continue to pivot slowly southeast to a position over southeastern KY overnight. Surface trof axis develops into ILN/s eastern counties late overnight. Weak surface trof and associated isentropic lift will lead to a slight chance of a shower on Monday.
246 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020 Clouds will gradually clear overnight into Monday morning as prevailing mid-level trough departs to the north and east.
106 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2020 Upper trough remains in place over the Pac NW as a western NOAM ridge slowly pushes east. Sfc boundary will waver over the region supporting dry SW flow with warm temps, esp for Tues when many areas around the Badlands could see the lower 100s for highs. Slow moving western CONUS trough will support semi-active flow later in the week with chances for precip at times after Tues. Much cooler conditions are also expected for the second half of the week as the Pac NW upper trough shifts slowly east across the Northern Plains.
243 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020 An upper ridge centered over the srn plains continues to dominate the weather across our area. Today, the ridge axis has shifted slightly to our east, allowing the sub-tropical mid-level moisture plume to also bend eastward, extending from south-central NM into the northwest Texas Panhandle. Still, 850mb temps are actually forecast to cool slightly from today, thus highs may be a degree or two cooler - mainly upper 80s to lower 90s under mostly sunny skies. Upper ridge continues to dominate through the forecast period creating an overall dry and hot forecast.
Dewpoints look to drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s with high temperatures only reaching the low 80s.
231 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020 An upper level ridge is holding over the central US while a trough develops in the Pacific Northwest which will impact our weather later this week. After a dry and cool night, dry and mild weather will continue through Monday as the warmer air begins to slowly edge into the CWA. Temps will be a tad warmer but dew points won't change much. Ridging will eventually break down into a large trof across the upper U.
256 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020 Overall little change is expected during the period as upper ridge remains over the forecast area. As the evening progresses, the boundary inversion will set up and will allow the low level jet to re-establish itself over the high plains.
Scattered showers have moved through the west half of the state so far today, and these appear associated with warm advection ahead of the low. CAM models agree in developing a line of storms along the cold front that will move east into central North Dakota by mid evening. After this evening, the overnight will see the front move through with cooler and drier air expected. Overnight lows tonight in the lower 50s west to around 70 east.
Another warm day is expected as an upper level ridge remains over the region. Upper level ridging will remain over the region for much of the upcoming work week so expect continued warm and dry conditions with very low to no chances for storms. The upper ridge finally begins to break down as an upper level trough shifts eastward from the desert southwest into the central Plains.
The dry weather is courtesy of a transitory upper level ridge which will move through the area today. It will be warmer today with lower humidities. The upstream trough will move in behind the ridge tonight into Monday, and the models are trending stronger with this trough. The associated front will move onshore late Sunday night and stall over the area as short waves moving through the trough support rounds of enhanced shower activity.
255 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020 This afternoon the upper ridge remains overhead from the southern Plains into the the Sunset Region of southwest Ontario. An upper trough was over eastern Washington with another off in the Gulf of Alaska. Temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 90s across the forecast area this afternoon with the highest readings from Manhattan westward at 19Z.
The upper trough axis over the Western U. S will weaken and high pressure will nudge in from the southwest, resulting in a slight warm-up today and Monday.