Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cold front, along a line from just north of Victoria to south of Cotulla at 2330Z, will move through the area this evening moving into the coastal waters by 04Z.
The cold front will take temps well below normal later Sat night.
Winter is to stay for these areas running 10 to 15 degrees cooler than yesterday. Increased clouds tonight will keep temperatures a bit warmer than they were this morning, but still much cooler in snow-covered areas. We are anticipating heavy snow in the higher elevations of the Park and Gore Ranges in particular, with the town of Steamboat seeing some solid snow amounts as well. Winter advisories and warnings continue through midnight, but the lower elevations areas may shut off earlier due to the strong jet moving in.
Will also see increasing low-level cold advection behind a cold front advancing across the area this evening, beginning our downtrend in temps. Saturday will be noticeably colder with continued cold advection ahead of approaching high pressure and highs in the teens and low 20s. High pressure will settle over the area into Christmas Eve Day, which should help to keep mostly quiet weather over the area. Temps will be similar to Saturday, maybe a few degrees warmer, with westerly low-level flow ahead of another cold front. 12Z NAM/GFS/GEM are mainly south with the precip, with the higher chances closer to the upper wave, while the ECMWF brings some light snow into northeast IA/southwest WI.
/Tonight through Saturday/ Area of high pressure nosing into Iowa from the central Plains today, with clearing skies across central IA this afternoon. Clearing will be brief tonight as a cold front currently dropping through SD which is associated with an area of low pressure over Manitoba/Ontario.
1) Weak ridging to our north will maintain light onshore flow in the low levels, keeping the potential for greater coverage across inland areas. Ridge axis sinking south across the waters will cause E/SE winds AOB 10kt tonight to veer SE/S by daybreak Sat then become more southerly by Sat afternoon.
Overnight lows in the low to mid 50s are expected with light southerly winds. The high pressure center will then slowly slide southeastward off the coast of the Florida peninsula by Saturday afternoon as a cold front enters the southeastern states.
928 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2017 Latest surface analysis showed a 1011mb low over northwest Mississippi with a cold front extending southwest to northwest Louisiana to southeast Texas. /issued 354 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2017/ Cold front currently stretching from Great Lakes region southwestward through the middle Mississippi Valley and into central Texas.
Precip starts out as rain then transitions to snow as winds shifts to more northerly bringing in cold air dropping temps below freezing Sat morning.
921 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2017 Low pressure in southern Arkansas will expand and advance to the northeast overnight, reaching Tennessee by 07z-08z. As the low center progresses along that path, rain showers will expand northward into our southern counties. Precip should begin to shut down quickly tomorrow morning, as the low pulls away to the east and drier air is pulled into Illinois from the north. Low temps tonight should be held a little warmer due to persistent cloud cover. Expect more of a push northeast this evening, as low pressure rides northeast out of Arkansas. How far north it makes it is a bit of a question, with the high-res models up to near a Champaign-Springfield line and the ECMWF on the higher range near Peoria.
A cold front tracks through Sun night-Mon morning with some showers and drier air behind it which will mitigate any fog concerns. Winds shift and increase as high pressure builds in but speeds stay below any headline criteria.
505 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2017 An upper level low pressure system currently moving across the southern Texas Panhandle is causing snow flurries or a brief period of light snow in this area as of this writing.
/Issued 505 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2017/ An upper level low pressure system currently moving across the southern Texas Panhandle is causing snow flurries or a brief period of light snow in this area as of this writing.
A surface cold front is just west of the Mississippi River with low pressure centered along the front over southwest Arkansas. As this low tracks northeast, rain will increase over the region with another 2 inches possible in areas where the Flash Flood Watch remains in effect. On Saturday, the cold front will be just east of the region with rain ending from west to east. High pressure will start to build into the region on Saturday night bringing a period of dry weather to the forecast area.
In the low levels of the atmosphere, an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across North Florida overnight. In the mid levels of the atmosphere, an area of high pressure will be centered over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a ridge of high pressure will be located over the Bahamas overnight.
633 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2017 Cold front is sweeping through Southeast Texas, with a temperature gradient of up to 30 degrees across the front. /ISSUED 520 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2017/ A cold front currently between KUTS and KCXO will continue to push southeastward through the area. /ISSUED 249 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2017/ A cold front as of 2 pm was through College Station and Crockett.
Models have all trended wetter and the higher qpf amounts have led to some travel impacts needing to be highlighted, with the best chance of accumulating snow in northern Elko County in the Independence Mountains and Jarbidge Wilderness Area where 4 to 7 inches could fall at higher elevations with local amounts up to a foot.
High pressure will dominate South Florida weather through the weekend, providing mostly clear skies, light wind, and warm temperatures.
410 PM MST Fri Dec 22 2017 Overwhelming feature, synoptically, remains the large low pressure trough currently spread over most of Canada and the US northern tier states.
/issued 249 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2017/ (Tonight and Saturday) The cold front has pushed south of our area and temperatures are 35 to 40 degrees colder than 24 hours ago. For Saturday, expect warmer temperatures and light west to southwest winds.
/issued 249 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2017/ What a difference a day makes! Temperatures this afternoon are over 20 to 30 degrees cooler than this time yesterday across portions of the area due to a cold front that's moving through the region. Any precipitation will gradually diminish by this evening as the upper trough lifts toward the Central Plains, with clearing skies expected to yield a very cold night tonight. Lows overnight will range from the lower 20s north and across the higher terrain to the upper 30s through portions of the Rio Grande Valley.
/issued 354 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2017/ Cold front currently stretching from Great Lakes region southwestward through the middle Mississippi Valley and into central Texas.
Expect fair weather with warming temperatures through the holiday weekend as high pressure builds along the west coast. Large scale high pressure will build along the west coast over the coming weekend keeping dry weather in the forecast with temperatures climbing above average by Saturday. West to northwest flow on the eastern periphery of the high pressure ridge will bring periods of high clouds moving across northern Arizona, especially Saturday morning through mid day.
The front will exhibit very little movement until later tonight when a low center develops along the boundary and finally drags it east as a cold front.
Currently expecting around 5 above zero across the south to the low/mid teens across the far northwest and west.
842 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2017 Scattered flurries/low clouds were along a weak cold frontal push this evening heading southward with mostly clear skies in behind. The cold front that brought light snow to much of the region today has shifted to our far southeastern counties, and will be quickly to our east shortly after 00Z. An elongated area of high pressure set up across western Canada will build a ridge into the forecast area through Saturday.
Poor flying weather will continue across the region as a low pressure system tracks along a stalled front, bringing moderate and occasional heavy showers.
543 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2017 On the large-scale, water vapor showing a digging trough of low pressure across eastern New Mexico and western Texas this afternoon, with ample mid/upper-level moisture advection occurring downstream across the Southern Plains and lower Mississippi Vly. Meanwhile, regional radar imagery shows a swath of precipitation extending from eastern Texas northeast through the lower Ohio Vly, with the far northern fringes of these returns creeping up towards our southern CWA border. The one thing that does look a little different than yesterday is a slight northward shift in max QPF placement, with today's runs favoring the highest amounts along and north of the Route 36 corridor. The only exception continues to be the NAM which shows the higher axis further south between Route 36 and I-70.
The cold front was moving into northeast Nebraska with temperatures in the 20s/30s and dewpoints in the 20s ahead of it and temperatures in the teens and dewpoints in the single digits and teens behind it. The RAP/HRRR are trending toward cooler temperatures compared to the blend.
Hourly temperatures appeared to be staying 3 to 8 degrees warmer than predicted with the extra cloud coverage. GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: Overwhelming feature, synoptically, remains the large low pressure trough currently spread over most of Canada and the US northern tier states.
Widespread rain is expected to rapidly replace the drizzle and some of the fog that was common mainly ahead of a surface cold front. Sat night, a dome of dry high pressure air will move into our region, continuing the downward trend in temps/dewpoints.
Mid/upper-level moisture plume now feeding into the Tennessee Valley, with a surface cold front dropping into southern Indiana and Illinois. Rainfall totals of 2-4 inches along and south of the Parkways still look good, so will keep the current Flash Flood Watch with the understanding that the impacts may be limited to the areas that see the highest rain amounts. Temps will fall behind the cold front, so would expect a non-diurnal temp curve through the day on Saturday. As the upper trof axis pushes through around midday, we could see a stripe of moderate precip that lingers across southern Indiana.
Expecting afternoon high temps a bit warmer than yesterday's due to the offshore flow and rising hgts.
618 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2017 Isentropic lift ahead of approaching cold front dropping southeast from North Dakota is producing light snow in northwest MN. While cooler air will filter in behind this front, temperatures won't plummet behind this front.
520 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2017 A cold front currently between KUTS and KCXO will continue to push southeastward through the area. /ISSUED 249 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2017/ A cold front as of 2 pm was through College Station and Crockett.
Fries Temperatures will slowly fall through the near term back into the lower 40s by Saturday afternoon. The cold front will be through the CWA by the start, however residual moisture and arrival of cold air could bring around an inch of snow to the mountains of West Virginia and western Maryland during the evening hours before weak ridging takes hold shutting off measurable QPF.
Cooler Saturday, with increased cloud cover in the northern half of the area.
with exiting thunderstorms across far southeast OK and a wide variety of rain/freezing rain/sleet and snow across much of the remainder of the forecast area. 00Z OUN sounding showed an impressive warm layer from 900-700mb ensuring that much of the precip was falling as sleet this evening (with some freezing rain mixed in) over most of northeast OK. Radar suggests that we'll see a brief lull in precipitation later this evening before another area of mostly snow associated with the upper low lifts into the region. and also kept a mention of freezing rain for northeast OK the remainder of the evening hours.
Some areas to the north and west of Tulsa metro have seen sfc temps fall to or a little below freezing with some reports of light freezing rain, which prompted an earlier issuance of a Winter Weather Advisory for Osage/Pawnee counties. 12z models have largely converged on a solution which takes the low center across central OK into northern AR tonight. Temperatures in most areas will warm above freezing by afternoon with skies clearing, thus only the heaviest of accumulations will be left by the end of the day.
558 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2017 Periods of sleet and freezing rain will move across OKC/OUN/LAW/SPS through 00-03Z before enough cooling occurs for mainly snow later this evening. Near surface temperatures in and around LAW/SPS are borderline for freezing rain, but as precipitation continues, freezing rain will be possible. /issued 247 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2017/ The precipitation across south central and east central Oklahoma is expected to move off to the east while the approach of the center of the upper low from west Texas will bring a final chance for light precipitation across central sections of the state tonight. All the precipitation will be ending with the passage of the upper low early Saturday, most of it before sunrise.
Drier and cooler air will work into the area behind the frontal passage by Saturday evening. Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 61 41 52 / 60 100 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 59 39 48 / 50 100 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 53 58 38 48 / 70 100 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 60 37 47 / 60 100 50 20 TN.
Expect more of a push northeast this evening, as low pressure rides northeast out of Arkansas. How far north it makes it is a bit of a question, with the high-res models up to near a Champaign-Springfield line and the ECMWF on the higher range near Peoria.
The low will track northeastward overnight along the cold front that stretches along the Mississippi River. Once the low gets near the Tennessee River around 3 AM, the front will start shifting east. A surface cold front is just west of the Mississippi River with low pressure centered along the front over southwest Arkansas. As this low tracks northeast, rain will increase over the region with another 2 inches possible in areas where the Flash Flood Watch remains in effect. On Saturday, the cold front will be just east of the region with rain ending from west to east. High pressure will start to build into the region on Saturday night bringing a period of dry weather to the forecast area.
This trough will bring snow chances to much of north central Nebraska.
As we head towards this evening temperatures will begin slowly falling towards the freezing mark and into the upper 20s overnight. This would include bridges and overpasses. Daily afternoon highs will be in the 30s each day with overnight lows in the lower 20s to the teens. Upper level low pressure was still over the TX/OK panhandle region. Temperatures have cooled into the low to mid 30s at the TAF sites and should see a changeover to a mix of snow and rain at JLN shortly.
OUN sounding depicts a fairly large warm area above the BL so would expect mostly sleet until the upper trough approaches around 9 PM. Further west, bands of snow/sleet/rain are accompanying the upper trough over western OK, the SE TX panhandle, and portions of western north TX. Temperatures are hovering just above freezing from Custer Co. The precipitation will not last long out west as the trough continues to progress eastward, but radar and observational trends suggest at least some hazardous conditions will develop with falling temperatures.
High pressure will continue to bring dry weather through Saturday.
The low level flow remains too westerly for significant lake effect snowfall tonight into Saturday and we expect mainly light snow accumulation from the Bayfield Peninsula east across the Gogebic Range tonight.
A formidable mean layer ridge will develop over the Gulf of Mexico today through Sunday. As the anticyclone develops to our north, warm and dry air will invade the lower and middle troposphere.
233 AM PDT Sat May 27 2017 High pressure builds over the region this weekend.
346 AM EDT Sat May 27 2017 Weak high pressure will build over the area today and will shift offshore on Sunday.
Temps reaching the lower to mid 90s most areas away from the coast.
Temperatures will begin trending back to seasonal norms as high pressure builds over the region.
327 AM MDT Sat May 27 2017 GOES-R water vapor imagery depicted a positively-tilted trough axis from ND across southeast MT, western WY into northern UT/NV. The upper trough will shift to the east across the CWA today and into the plains this evening. Cyclonic flow aloft and a few weak disturbances rotating through the trough will maintain a cool and showery pattern today. Showers will end this evening with subsident and more stable air mass in the wake of upper trough passage. Sunday will trend somewhat drier with a northwest flow aloft on the anticyclonic side of the western CONUS upper ridge. High temperatures Sunday will be 5-10 degrees warmer with mid 60s-low 70s.
High pressure overhead this morning will move offshore later today. A wave of low pressure will move across the area this afternoon or evening pushing a weak front south of the area late tonight.
/issued 415 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): Subtropical ridging will be the dominate weather feature through the next 24 to 36 hours. The warm temperatures, combined with the high dewpoints, will create heat index values from 105 to 110 across much of Deep South Texas. Heading into Sunday, the subtropical ridge breaks down and shifts back across the Eastern Gulf. This should help keep temperatures a couple of degrees cooler on Sunday. Meanwhile, although the dry forecast should continue through the day, a cold front will be meandering towards south across Texas.
148 AM EDT Sat May 27 2017 Low pressure over the Southern plains will will track across the upper Ohio Valley late tonight into Saturday morning. A second system will track across the Central Lakes late Sunday dragging another cold front across the forecast area. but the precip should track quickly east with the Low. By Sunday evening low pressure tracks into central lakes with the trailing cold front moving across WRN OH. Expect convection to fire up ahead of the cold front Sunday evening. SPC has the SWRN portion of the forecast area in a marginal risk as dew point creep into the lower 60s and cape push to near 1500 j/kg. The low tracks NE of the forecast area Sunday night.
/issued 331 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017/ The weak front that dipped into the area this morning has brought an uptick in moisture and modestly cooler temperatures to the area versus 24 hours, particularly across the northern zones. Even so, temperatures were still on the high side of average, varying from the middle and upper 80s north to lower to middle 90s south as of 1930Z. This will provide even warmer weather than today (though probably not as hot as yesterday) with highs likely well up into the 90s on the Caprock while triple digits return to the lower elevations.
Strong high pressure builds across the west and brings warmer temperatures to the region for the next several days. Snowmelt from the higher elevations will increase and this continue the elevated flows for small rivers and streams. High pressure along the west coast this morning will expand inland to the Great Basin this afternoon. By Sunday, the ridge axis will be positioned over the west portion of the Great Basin. Partial cloud cover over the Snake range this morning will clear out by late morning as yesterday's cold front dissipates. With respect to temperatures, several degrees of warmer is expected today and that will be followed by several more degrees on Sunday.
249 AM MDT Sat May 27 2017 An upper level trough will move across the area today and then move southeast of the area by this evening. Sunday and Sunday night, a moderate northwesterly flow aloft will be over CO with an upper level ridge centered over NV.
The cold front will not move through Arkansas until Sunday.
/issued 331 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017/ High pressure over the region will shift southeast into Saturday.
150 AM EDT Sat May 27 2017 The dry pressure ridge to our south will dominate through Saturday. A weak cold front will approach the forecast area from the northwest Sunday.
Expect to see prevailing MVFR conditions due to this low stratus deck through around 15-16z before ceilings break up a bit and lift to around 4000 feet for the afternoon hours.
145 AM EDT Sat May 27 2017 The low pressure system that brought all the rain to the North Country over the past 24 to 36 hours continues to move eastward.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): Subtropical ridging will be the dominate weather feature through the next 24 to 36 hours. The warm temperatures, combined with the high dewpoints, will create heat index values from 105 to 110 across much of Deep South Texas. Heading into Sunday, the subtropical ridge breaks down and shifts back across the Eastern Gulf. This should help keep temperatures a couple of degrees cooler on Sunday. Meanwhile, although the dry forecast should continue through the day, a cold front will be meandering towards south across Texas.
315 AM PDT Sat May 27 2017 High pressure aloft near the West Coast will bring an inland warming trend through Memorial day with high temperatures warming to a little above average.
Lake breeze developing by the late morning hours will keep lakeshore areas cooler than inland locations. Models were showing low pressure system sliding northeast into central or northeast Illinois later tonight. Mesoscale models were developing an area of showers and storms in central or northern Iowa into southeast Minnesota later this evening with a cold front. Surface winds will be northeast across the far SE part of the state on the backside of the low and winds will be westerly upstream resulting in a frontal boundary. A closed low will drop over Lake Superior bringing slightly cooler temperatures compared to Saturday.
Rich low level moisture and favorable isentropic lifting in the lowest 100 mb early this morning will result in drizzle/mist for the eastern half of the CWA. There are some indications this may occur due to an easterly shift to the low level wind field this afternoon which may be enough to get convection firing over Mexico. Later tonight, an approaching cold front will be the focus for lifting and perhaps some showers and thunderstorms tomorrow morning as it approaches the northern periphery of the CWA.
A surface trof of low pressure was moving into St. A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms were occurring along an ahead of this trof. The surface trof will have moved east of the region shortly thereafter, and with the loss of diurnal heating, no additional precipitation is expected. By afternoon, showers are expected to develop in response to a long wave trof that is progged to be found from northeast Minnesota southwestward to eastern South Dakota by 00Z Sunday. Max temps will be in the 60s near Lake Superior, to the lower 70s inland. A cutoff upper low will keep partly cloudy skies and occasional rain chances in the picture Saturday night through midweek.
413 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017 (Today and Tonight) Low level moisture continues to surge north and west into West Central Texas early this morning, with surface dewpoints in the low 70s across the Northwest Hill Country and even higher values stretching from the Rio Grande east into Central Texas. Cold front moves into West Central Texas tonight, mainly between midnight and sunrise.