Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
220 PM EDT Mon Aug 15 2022 High pressure and drier air will offer decreasing clouds through the day. With upstream dewpoints in middle/upper 50s, drier air in lowest 100 mb, subsidence from James Bay to northern Upper Great Lakes anticyclone, continued erosion of cloud cover expected overnight segueing to scattered afternoon high-based scattered cumulus field. Surface ridging remains steadfast over Upper Great Lakes through the workweek with gradual thermal moderation.
The warmest temps are currently over the east as a high pressure ridge over northern Ontario very slowly moves eastward towards northern Quebec. Pattern for the upcoming week is characterized by downstream broad troughing and upstream ridging.
The warmest temps are currently over the east as a high pressure ridge over northern Ontario very slowly moves eastward towards northern Quebec. The pattern for the upcoming week is characterized by downstream broad troughing and upstream ridging over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies.
1142 AM MDT Mon Aug 15 2022 Upper level ridge was centered over the southern Plains with a swath of monsoonal moisture rotating clockwise from the Desert Southwest into the northern and central Plains. A cool front extended from low pressure in western ND through south central MT and central ID. The highest PoPs will be along and south of the I-80 corridor from Arlington to Cheyenne WY. It will be cooler with afternoon highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s, which is normal for mid-August. While there is a chance for isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, the chances remain very low and likely relegated to the higher terrain and surrounding plains.
1228 PM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022 (Today and tonight) An upper level ridge axis will remain along the Red River Valley and a tropical system will slowly move west across south Texas into northern Mexico during the next 24 hours.
High pressure will bring dry conditions the next several days with temperatures warming through the middle of the week. High pressure will shift inland late in the week with cooler temperatures and perhaps a few showers for the weekend.
134 PM PDT Mon Aug 15 2022 Robust warming trend across Central California will continue today as high pressure builds.
225 PM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022 A complex surface pattern across the High Plains today with a surface wave moving through Kansas and a broad frontal boundary pushing down through northwest Nebraska. Lows tonight will range from the low/mid 50s near the SD border to the lower 60s south of Interstate 80. Ensemble guidance is consistent in amplifying the upper ridge over the western US further west. This will keep the High Plains in northwest flow aloft with high pressure at the surface.
Meanwhile, a cold front will move through the region and stall to our south, most likely near I-20. Additionally, a cold front near 925mb is expected to stall somewhere between Lubbock and Midland.
Tomorrow will be similar to today, as the ridge builds to the west and south, further cutting off the monsoon flow. The continuing decrease in moisture will lead to peak heating showers and thunderstorms on the highest elevations, but not lasting into the evening hours. With high pressure in the vicinity, the overall wind field remains light, with only modest gusts 10 to 15 kts for southern WY in the afternoon.
Quiet weather this week under surface ridging and dry northeast low level flow. The upper pattern transitions to an Omega block by the end of the week as an upper low dives south from northern Canada and becomes vertically stacked to our west with a moist southerly flow developing.
Tuesday will bring a quieter and drier interim day in the wake of the weak cold front that will linger just south of the southern fringe of the forecast area.
333 PM EDT Mon Aug 15 2022 A cold front will move into the region tonight and Tuesday, lingering in the vicinity through late week. A mid and upper level trough will encompass much of the eastern U. Concurrently, a weak area of low pressure and associated front will slowly move into the area. Low temperatures tonight will mainly be in the lower 70s, except in the mid 70s closer to the coast.
1226 PM EDT Mon Aug 15 2022 Periodic isolated to scattered showers will continue through much of the week under upper level low pressure. Continued deepening of the trough should continue until it becomes a closed low across the nern CONUS Tuesday.
115 PM EDT Mon Aug 15 2022 Periodic isolated to scattered showers will continue through much of the week under upper level low pressure. Continued deepening of the trough should continue until it becomes a closed low across the nern CONUS Tuesday.
Deep layer ridging will yield a hot and mostly dry day across the area, with just a small chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm across south central LA.
255 PM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022 Key Points: - Cold front moves through tonight, chance of showers/storms into tomorrow - Much cooler weather arrives for tomorrow, sticks around through the weekend A current look at surface observations across the area shows the key players in our much awaited transition to cooler weather. High pressure to the north is keeping easterly flow in place to the north of the boundary, with widespread clouds and precipitation developing just across the state line into Nebraska.
355 PM EDT Mon Aug 15 2022 Weak high pressure will strengthen north of the region on Tuesday.
but some high clouds may clip mainly eastern areas as a weak trough drops south through the afternoon.
(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Upper low moving up from S TX will cross the Big Bend region tonight. Network radar currently shows large area of rain rotating around this low located south of DRT. With increased dewpts and increased cloud cover temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler tomorrow.
Mid to upper level ridging across the Central/Southern plains has begun to reclaim its hold over the weather pattern, leaving our area high and dry to begin the week. Tuesday will follow a similar summer-time pattern as the influence from the upper level ridge strengthens.
Cooler drier NNE flow will then help settle the main frontal zone south of the region this weekend with most rain chances south of the FA where the better moisture and main storm track will be. This will also support cooler conds with highs in the 70s and 80s. Widespread MVFR/IFR CIGS will persist through the period across south-central SD, with the low CIGS advecting northwest toward KRAP late tonight as moist southeast flow develops over the area. The main uncertainty exists over the westward extent of the low cloud deck.
Largely zonal flow/weak ridging overspreads the region as of Monday afternoon. The ridge continues strengthening just to the west of the Continental Divide through the week bringing continued hot conditions to the forecast area.
The could be some scattered cumulus, as soundings show a pinch of moisture around 5000ft, but the low to mid lvls will be a bit drier, so the current thinking is that coverage won't be as much as today.
245 PM EDT Mon Aug 15 2022 Earlier this afternoon, a cloud line ignited to the north of the Lower Keys. Abundant sunshine across the island chain throughout the day, with the exception being the recent cloud cover moving over the Lower Keys from the cloud line), has allowed temperatures to climb to near 90 degrees. Rain chances have been capped at slight (10-20%), with the higher chances during the day to account for possible cloud line development.
However, before the low exits the region, showers and thunderstorms will be possible but mainly along and south of the Mountain Parkway this afternoon. A strong ridge situated over the southern Central Plains will keep the trough axis over the region thus keeping clouds and below average temperatures for Tuesday. As the trough axis begins to flatten, a perturbation is progged to move through the flow, this may bring isolated chances for precipitation to eastern portions of the CWA.
Northeast winds continue today with the high pressure axis to our north.
And while shear is on the weaker side, ie 20-30 kt, it is present, and is mainly derived by upper level winds around 60-80 kt with strong unidirectional component within objective hodograph analyses, with even some veering of winds aloft capable of promoting anticyclonic mesocyclones.
Where clouds have persisted most, temperatures were in the low/mid 70s mainly across the Bluegrass with other areas that saw clearing earlier are in the low 80s. Expect to see variably cloudy skies across the region ranging from partly to mostly cloudy at times overnight with lows in the low/mid 60s. We will remain under a northwest flow aloft as the upper-level trough currently over the northeastern US develops into a cutoff low over Lake Erie and Lake Superior by tomorrow morning.
With the boundary now just to the southwest of the area, expect these conditions to continue overnight -- with a slightly cooler air mass settling into the area. Subsequently, lows will running a little bit cooler than recent nights -- eventually bottoming out in the mid to upper 60s.
Therefore kept the higher chance pops, but dropped some of the likelies due to uncertainty. And while shear is on the weaker side, ie 20-30 kt, it is present, and is mainly derived by upper level winds around 60-80 kt with strong unidirectional component within objective hodograph analyses, with even some veering of winds aloft capable of promoting anticyclonic mesocyclones.
Low temperatures are running a couple of degrees warmer than previously forecasted, but we still stand a good chance of seeing temperatures dip into the 60s Tuesday morning. (This afternoon through Tuesday Night) The quiet weather continues today with a weak front moving through the area, bringing some cooler temps and northerly flow.
/issued 317 PM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022/ A cooler and unsettled weather pattern will prevail over the Midsouth through midweek, as upper level northwest flow prevails between a closed low over the Northeast and subtropical height ridge extending from the southern plains.
Previous Discussion: Dry air and high pressure have expanded enough through the region to push all precipitation out of NE Montana.
626 PM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022 (This afternoon through Tuesday Night) The quiet weather continues today with a weak front moving through the area, bringing some cooler temps and northerly flow.
The high resolution models all still show significant rainfall for the southern 2/3rds of the CWA later this afternoon and tonight. For temperatures, Tuesday's highs are are 0-2 C warmer than today's highs.
Cooler drier NNE flow will then help settle the main frontal zone south of the region this weekend with most rain chances south of the FA where the better moisture and main storm track will be. This will also support cooler conds with highs in the 70s and 80s.
Further north and west, high pressure will continue to suppress most convection with less than a 10% chance for any showers.
High pressure will continue just east of the region for the next several days.
A cold front will move into central Arkansas on Tuesday and bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms.
621 PM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Upper low moving up from S TX will cross the Big Bend region tonight. Network radar currently shows large area of rain rotating around this low located south of DRT. With increased dewpts and increased cloud cover temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler tomorrow.
1044 PM EDT Mon Aug 15 2022 A cold front will move into the region tonight and Tuesday, lingering in the vicinity through late week. Low temperatures tonight will mainly be in the lower 70s, except in the mid 70s closer to the coast.
Otherwise, southern WI is on the peripheral of the high cloud shield associated with the showers across southern IA. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains on track with influence from high pressure over the region to continue through midweek before rain chances return late week into the weekend. The could be some scattered cumulus, as soundings show a pinch of moisture around 5000ft, but the low to mid lvls will be a bit drier, so the current thinking is that coverage won't be as much as today.
Clear skies tonight as an upper level ridge begins to build northwest across the region over the next couple of days.
749 PM EDT Mon Aug 15 2022 A cold front will move into the region today and tonight, providing a chance of showers and thunderstorms this evening, some possibly severe across the NE Midlands. Closed upper low to continue over the NE US with upper trough axis extending SW to the Gulf Coast, providing NW upper flow over our region. Closed upper low over the NE progged to open and lift NE while an upper trough to dig into the N Plains/Upper Midwest and cut off Thu/Fri and slowly shift east across the Great Lakes region Sat through Mon. Possible Restrictions This Evening from Convection followed by A cold front continues to approach the forecast area from the northwest this evening with scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms.
634 PM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) An upper level low is currently centered across northern Mexico, west of Eagle Pass. This low is forecast to continue to track northwest, moving across the Big Bend region Tuesday morning. Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this low is forecast to remain south of our area, although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight into Tuesday, mainly across the northern Edwards Plateau. Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
Key Points: - Cold front moves through tonight, chance of showers/storms into tomorrow - Much cooler weather arrives for tomorrow, sticks around through the weekend A current look at surface observations across the area shows the key players in our much awaited transition to cooler weather. High pressure to the north is keeping easterly flow in place to the north of the boundary, with widespread clouds and precipitation developing just across the state line into Nebraska.
I will admit there is more dry air aloft above 600 mb than today, even so the air is fairly moist to about 15000 ft so I would think with an upper low near by, deep northeast winds and some surface heating, we would see showers again tomorrow, so I put 20 to 30% POP in the forecast for Tuesday and increased the clouds over some. Quiet weather this week under surface ridging and dry northeast low level flow. The upper pattern transitions to an Omega block by the end of the week as an upper low dives south from northern Canada and becomes vertically stacked to our west with a moist southerly flow developing.
648 PM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022 A complex surface pattern across the High Plains today with a surface wave moving through Kansas and a broad frontal boundary pushing down through northwest Nebraska. Lows tonight will range from the low/mid 50s near the SD border to the lower 60s south of Interstate 80. Ensemble guidance is consistent in amplifying the upper ridge over the western US further west. This will keep the High Plains in northwest flow aloft with high pressure at the surface.
Precip amounts should remain light within the central Illinois forecast area, with up to around a quarter inch possible near portions of the lower Illinois River Valley. In addition, frontogenesis will be occurring along this band as a warm front strengthens.
A few showers developed late this afternoon/early evening, mainly across far northeast Indiana/south central Lower Michigan in closer proximity to weak mid level thermal troughing. but some high clouds may clip mainly eastern areas as a weak trough drops south through the afternoon.
Expect temperatures to settle into the lower to middle 60s by sunrise Tuesday. However, before the low exits the region, showers and thunderstorms will be possible but mainly along and south of the Mountain Parkway this afternoon. A strong ridge situated over the southern Central Plains will keep the trough axis over the region thus keeping clouds and below average temperatures for Tuesday. As the trough axis begins to flatten, a perturbation is progged to move through the flow, this may bring isolated chances for precipitation to eastern portions of the CWA.
621 PM EDT Mon Aug 15 2022 Periodic isolated to scattered showers will continue through much of the week under upper level low pressure. Overnight low temps will likely stay seasonable with clouds, lingering precip, and static synoptic pattern under an upper- lvl trough. Trough will continue to linger and deepen across the nern CONUS.
555 PM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022 Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance Developing low pressure in the Southern Plains will activate a warm advection zone just to our west, and serve as an impetus for overrunning rainfall that commences as an H5 short wave pinwheels its energy into/thru its broad, long wave trof governing much of the Ohio River Valley. The highest chance for 3+ inch amounts will extend north and west from Carter-Ripley county, so for most of us, this will just give some appreciative rainfall.
Winds will begin to veer tomorrow as a cold front approaches the region but wind speeds will generally remain under 15 kts. Meanwhile, a cold front will move through the region and stall to our south, most likely near I-20. Additionally, a cold front near 925mb is expected to stall somewhere between Lubbock and Midland.
632 PM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022 Latest water vapor imagery is showing a large high over the southern Plains with a ridge over the western CONUS and a low over the northeast resulting in northwest flow over the Midwest. Showers and a few thunderstorms have already developed in the low level moisture convergence ahead of this system and will move into the northern and and western parts of the CWA late this afternoon and this evening. With more clouds and rain tomorrow it will be a cool August day with highs only in the lower-mid 70s. Britt Operational models and their ensembles are pointing toward an amplified upper pattern with a longwave ridge over the western CONUS and a trough in the northeast.
Southerly winds are expected to develop on Thu night as a weak area of low pressure develops to the west of the region.
(Today and tonight) Upper low moving west into the Big Bend region this morning will continue moving west today. While temperatures in Crockett county may only rise into the lower 90s due to cloud cover, highs in the upper 90s to 100 are expected elsewhere, with the hottest readings in the Big Country.
Sandwiched between an upper level low over the northeastern states and upper level ridging over the Four Corners region mainly dry and slightly below seasonal temperatures for the CWA.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase this afternoon across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as a cold front currently across south-central Kansas slides into the area.
Stuck pretty close to NBM PoP guidance today which does have some low-end likely PoPs in the higher terrain of Johnson up through Russell county areas this afternoon. Highs will be several degrees cooler than climo this afternoon, with comfortable RH as well.
Short-term models indicate this area of precipitation will lose intensity through the morning as the mid-level vort exits the area and the low-level jet weakens. Cooler temperatures should stick around through the week and into the weekend.
233 AM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Hot and dry conditions are the primary focal point for the next several days, as upper-level ridging persists overhead, keeping most locations in the upper 80s and 90s. A chance for slightly cooler temperatures later this week as well as a return of possible showers this weekend. Models are in good agreement that weak upper-level ridging will continue through the next day or two, transitioning to a more developed elongated ridge overtop western CONUS and extending into western Canada by midweek.
Heat will be the main weather feature through midweek as mid/upper level ridging takes control. Generally expecting partly cloudy skies today (mainly high clouds associated with the now west Texas area low pressure system) with high temperatures ranging from the low to mid 90s near/along the coast and upper 90s to low 100s near/north of the I-10 corridor. Tonight looks quiet and mostly clear with lows ranging from the mid to upper 70s inland to the low to mid 80s along the coast. With abundant sunshine in place on Wednesday, it looks like high temperatures will be a couple degrees warmer for most locations, and little to no rain can be expected.
354 AM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Periodic isolated to scattered showers will continue through much of the week under upper level low pressure. Trough will continue to linger and deepen across the nern CONUS. The low/trough should remain across the nern CONUS through Wednesday night.
This lends a dry start for the CWA as the region remains wedged between a cutoff low to the east and elongated ridging to the west.
(Today through Wednesday) A trough of low pressure will remain over the Eastern United States keeping a ridge of high pressure over the Florida Straits. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s over most areas, except around 90 west coast metro areas. This will allow for the heat indices to be into the low to mid 100s.
1225 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 A complex surface pattern across the High Plains today with a surface wave moving through Kansas and a broad frontal boundary pushing down through northwest Nebraska. Lows tonight will range from the low/mid 50s near the SD border to the lower 60s south of Interstate 80. Ensemble guidance is consistent in amplifying the upper ridge over the western US further west. This will keep the High Plains in northwest flow aloft with high pressure at the surface.
1132 PM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022 Updated aviation section for 06z taf issuance Developing low pressure in the Southern Plains will activate a warm advection zone just to our west, and serve as an impetus for overrunning rainfall that commences as an H5 short wave pinwheels its energy into/thru its broad, long wave trof governing much of the Ohio River Valley. The highest chance for 3+ inch amounts will extend north and west from Carter-Ripley county, so for most of us, this will just give some appreciative rainfall.
A low pressure system off the Carolina coast is responsible for a pseudo-wedge front that will be responsible for mostly cloudy conditions today across NE Georgia; especially the north GA mountains. The rain is expected to make a return on Wednesday as a low pressure system emerges from the gulf, flooding much of the SE with PW values over 2 inches. Temperatures are expected to be near normal for this time of year today, but highs for Wednesday will likely be 10 degrees lower than normal with values in the low 80s and 70s across the mountains. Vaughn Active pattern dominates through the forecast period as the amplification of the western side of the upper trough digs southward into the Gulf Coast states, which sets up a switch of the previous NW flow to more SW.
Ridging aloft will continue over the region through Wednesday, and under NW flow aloft, elevated energy will continue to impinge upon the forecast area. The upper pattern features a ridge to the west which will gradually expand in amplitude, with a trough/upper low over the eastern CONUS.
(Today through Wednesday) We find oursevles in what's known as a "col" this morning, with high pressure to our north and south and low pressure to our east and west. However, a strong upper ridge has placed us under a northwest flow aloft, and a band of moisture riding down the northwest flow will bring mainly light showers to the mid state today and the cloud cover coupled with a northerly surface flow will keep temperatures well below normal. (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) High pressure will build into Middle Tennessee later in the week, but low rain chances will persist and temperatures will gradually warm back to seasonal values by the weekend.
With most short-term models pointing toward diminishing cloud cover this afternoon within an increasingly subsident air mass, temperatures are expected to warm into the low-to-mid 80s.