Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1245 PM PDT Tue Aug 15 2017 Weak trough across the west will allow for light winds as well as temperatures near to slightly above average through the week.
1140 AM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017 A series of short wave troughs that have been moving through the base of the main upper trough over the intermountain region begin lifting out east of the Rockies today and across the Central High Plains over the Plains states from tonight through Wednesday evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue across the area through the day on Wednesday as the short wave troughs aloft continue to lift across the region with some stabilization of the atmosphere Wednesday night in the wake of the exiting upper short wave trough. The remainder of the upper trough over the western U.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night): No significant changes to the short term forecast as a strong H5 ridge remains perched over much of the Southeastern U. While it is doubtful that any precip will form due to the exceedingly dry air aloft and lack of forcing, the moisture could raise dewpoints enough at the surface on Wednesday to be concerned about warmer heat index values.
Even with the high clouds streaming into this location, the radiative cooling effective continues to keep the dense fog and has actually thickened and expanded further eastward toward the Waterloo location. Convection has developed along and north of a stalled cold front extending across Nebraska due to a ribbon of Theta-E advection pushing northeast.
Adequate low level moisture to support some renewed diurnal cu growth as this airmass overturns, with a particular focus from the eastern thumb down through the Ohio border within a couple regions of enhanced low level troughing/ convergence. Influx of lower theta-e air commences through tonight, as low level flow turns northeasterly within the eastern flank of expanding high pressure centered over lake superior. This high will govern conditions through Wednesday, eventually taking residence across northern lake huron by late in the day. Existing airmass will moderate minimally under this pattern, pointing to a very seasonable mid August day with highs peaking in the lower 80s.
1229 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017 The highest probability for storms will occur across the central high plains this afternoon and evening. There may also be an attempt across southern Kansas with a remnant Storms may be ongoing early in the period on Wednesday with redevelopment along a southward advancing cold front on Wed afternoon.
328 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 A cold front will move south out of Canada this afternoon triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms. High pressure builds in Wednesday after the front sweeps offshore.
1225 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a low amplitude ridge across the central CONUS. West of this feature, a closed low was located over western Alberta, with a trough extending sw of this feature into northern Nevada.
326 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 Messy pattern continues, with ample moisture remaining over the state as high pressure builds into the region from the south/east over the next few days.
150 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017 Today have an upper ridge centered over FL with a broad trough over the western US.
Clear skies overnight will again lead to a cool Wednesday morning, with frost possible for high valleys and areas that saw temperatures near freezing Tuesday morning.
Today through Wednesday Low pressure circulation over northern Utah clearly evident on water vapor imagery.
/Issued 352 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017/ A very weak trough/old boundary remains across portions of north central/central GA this morning. Building high pressure aloft will help limit convective coverage into Wednesday. High pressure aloft will build in from the south - also helping to limit convective coverage.
Mid and upper level moisture advection will occur tonight ahead of troughing approaching from the west.
339 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017 Numerous showers and thunderstorms ongoing this afternoon as expected with the highest coverage across acadiana.
649 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 High pressure will maintain VFR conditions and light winds through the forecast period as it builds from the northern Great Lakes into southeast Ontario/Eastern Great Lakes. Adequate low level moisture to support some renewed diurnal cu growth as this airmass overturns, with a particular focus from the eastern thumb down through the Ohio border within a couple regions of enhanced low level troughing/ convergence. Influx of lower theta-e air commences through tonight, as low level flow turns northeasterly within the eastern flank of expanding high pressure centered over lake superior. This high will govern conditions through Wednesday, eventually taking residence across northern lake huron by late in the day. Existing airmass will moderate minimally under this pattern, pointing to a very seasonable mid August day with highs peaking in the lower 80s.
141 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 High pressure brings drier weather on Wednesday but unsettled pattern returns to end the week with another cold front. High pressure pushes down this evening and will keep us mostly dry through Wednesday.
1254 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017 Weak high pressure ridge over the center of the country and up the Mississippi River Valley. The high-resolution short range models do have it settling across the Peoria/Bloomington areas toward 9-10 am, before stalling out.
Generally expect the low to continue lifting northeast as the upper wave strengthens overnight, which implies very strong forcing for ascent which should have no problem producing heavy rainfall across the area.
/issued 357 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017/ Latest water vapor imagery shows an elongated ridge of high pressure sitting stagnant over the Florida peninsula.
An upper level trough of low pressure will be responsible for the increased threat of showers and storms this afternoon and evening. but as this system moves east tonight cooler and drier weather will move in on northwest flow aloft.
And, as a larger upper-level trough approaches tomorrow, it will induce a tightening surface pressure gradient, with the attendant increase in southerly surface winds once daytime vertical mixing gets established around 14Z or 15Z.
Once the trough axis lifts out of southern New Mexico into the Central Plains through the course of the day tomorrow, we'll see high pressure, currently across the southern Gulf States attempt to inch westward.
338 PM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over northwest NE, with warm front extending east across northern NE and cool front south and west of the area. Upper level analysis shows low pressure across southwest SK, with upper trough now extending south across the Northern Rockies into the central Rockies. Temps range from the 60s over northeast WY and the Black Hills to the low to mid 80s across south central SD.
253 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 Isolated showers and storms will remain possible late this afternoon along a weak cold front. Lows tonight will drop into the 60s, with highs on Wednesday into the low to mid 80s.
617 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 A cold front will cross the region tonight. High pressure and drier air will follow for Wednesday.
A dry cold front moved through central California yesterday leaving behind upper level northwest flow ushering in additional cool air. Temperatures this afternoon were generally running between 5 and 8 degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago. Temperatures will warm slightly on Wednesday as upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific begins to nudge slightly eastward.
Look for temperatures to gradually warm through the week as a ridge of high pressure builds into our region. Synoptically a ridge of high pressure offshore will build to our coast today and slowly progress to our region through the week.
231 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017 A fairly active 24 hour period shaping up for the lower Missouri Valley as at least 2 rounds of convection are possible before through tomorrow evening. Latest model trends have delayed the departure of this first round of convection Wednesday morning, which leads to significant uncertainty for redeveloping convection later in the day out ahead of the main cold front that is expected to move through the region through the afternoon and evening hours. Precip to come to an end through Thurs morning as high pressure begins sliding east from the Plains.
1145 AM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017 An incoming cold front from the west will tighten the pressure gradient over the region and bring enhanced drainage winds this morning before daytime heating increases showers and thunderstorms late this morning, mainly across NE Utah and NW Colorado. Cloud cover will increase all throughout eastern Utah and western Colorado as this trough moves east through the region, keeping temperatures quite a bit cooler today. Weak high pressure over the area will keep skies mostly sunny, but isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms can still be expected each afternoon over the high terrain. A strengthening trough over the west coast will be a big player in tapping more monsoonal moisture late this weekend from the south as the trough shifts high pressure in place eastward.
Upper level trough visible in satellite over Nevada and Utah this morning. This upper trough will move into western Colorado by this afternoon and then over the I25 corridor by Wednesday morning. The upper trough will act as a trigger to storm development across the plains in the afternoon and overnight. Farther west, it appears that some drier air may advect in from the southwest, ahead of the trough this morning, limiting the overall thunderstorm potential during the afternoon. Tonight, the upper trough axis will move from western Colorado toward the I25 corridor. This looks good based on the location of the primary upper forcing and surface moisture convergence associated with the low level jet.
Afternoon highs will be limited to the low/mid 80s in southeastern zones, where skies will remain mostly cloudy. With dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, moderate instability could develop by the afternoon.
145 PM PDT Tue Aug 15 2017 A trough of low pressure along the west coast will bring another cooler than average day Wednesday.
Although the temp dropped into the lower 90s behind the sea breeze along the space and treasure coasts, the dewpoint jumped into the upper 70s, producing heat indices 106-108.
A strong upper level trof across UT/NV this afternoon will approach Nebraska overnight lowering heights aloft, steepening lapse rates and forcing thunderstorm development. The model consensus shows a sfc cold front drifting southeast overnight with a large warm sector opening up across Ncntl Neb.
325 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017 Sfc map this afternoon features a warm front across southern NE with low pressure across southeast CO. Meanwhile, water vapor sat loop shows one wave across northern OK moving into southern KS with the main upper trough still back near the Four Corners. The main trough axis lifts out over south central and eastern NE Wednesday night.
300 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 Isolated showers and storms will remain possible late this afternoon along a weak cold front. Lows tonight will drop into the 60s, with highs on Wednesday into the low to mid 80s.
Yet, the upper ridge is expected to remain in place over the CWA/MSA during the period.
an old boundary to our south will lift north across the area as a warm front. temperatures will be warmer with highs expected to reach into the 80s and low 90s. A ridge near the Gulf coast will keep the Southern Appalachian region in a westerly flow through the end of the work week.
335 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017 A large 500mb trough was set up across the western half of the nation, with a ridge across MN and down through IL, leaving us in southwesterly flow aloft. An initial embedded trough currently over western WY will swing over western SD Wednesday morning, and exit across the eastern half of the state through the afternoon hours. We are currently stuck between exiting high pressure across the Great Lakes region, and low pressure nearing from western SD/NE.
The main upper trough currently over the western CONUS will move east today and tonight and will bring another round of showers and tstms to much of the CWA. Instabilities not as great today with the highest amounts over the southeast half of the Panhandle, where CAPEs around 1500-2000J/kg progged there this afternoon. A cool front will slide east over the area this evening bringing a little cooler air for Weds.
343 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 A cold front will cross the region tonight. High pressure and drier air will follow for Wednesday.
A cold front will approach the area late Wednesday but is expected to remain north of the CWA.
An area of high pressure will build into the region later tonight through Wednesday night.
/Issued 210 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018/ A couple of minor upper level short wave troughs will dive southeast from the northern high plains into the central plains where they will get caught up in a much larger circulation over the Great Lakes and northeast. An upper level ridge will then push east across the plains from the Rockies on Wednesday. Temperatures will warm back above normal for Wednesday as this ridge moves across.
Will increase PoPs this afternoon, as the next trough axis, swinging around the western flank of the 500 low, will increase lift and deepen the saturation layer. The favored upslope regions will see appreciable snow accumulations, thus a winter weather advisory has been issued for the ridge counties. Snow showers will continue into Wednesday as the upper low moves eastward and colder air behind the exiting low spreads across the area.
The amplified upper ridge currently centered over the Rockies will slowly move east and weaken Tuesday and Wednesday. No precipitation is expected due to lack of upper forcing under the ridge. Temperatures will be near normal on Tuesday, then warm to much above normal on Wednesday under the ridge axis.
1227 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018 High pressure and VFR conditions are expected through the period. Tonight Through Wednesday Fair conditions are expected during this period, along with slightly cooler than normal temperatures.
Mostly zonal flow will prevail aloft with upper level low pressure to our north. Low level high pressure will continue to slide south through the Plains today. This pattern will render a cool and sunny day for the area with light winds from the northwest and highs in the low 60s.
Low pressure was located over central Ontario south to Lake Erie. A broad trough of low pressure extended south into south Florida. West of this feature, a high amplitude ridge extended from the intermountain west north into northern Alberta. West of the ridge, a high amplitude trough of low pressure extended form the Gulf of Alaska south to off the coast of central California. At the surface, high pressure was located over North Dakota and extended south into South Dakota and northeastern Nebraska. High pressure will build south southeast along the upper Missouri valley today. High pressure will build south into the Ozarks tonight. With light winds, dry air and clear skies in place, readings will drop quickly after sundown with overnight lows bottoming out in the lower to middle 20s.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will be dominated at the surface by high pressure and by a west-northwest to east-southeast flow at the 500 mb level.
Winds will remain breezy today, particularly in the higher elevations, although speeds should remain below Wind Advisory criteria. Freezing temperatures look to be more certain Wednesday for much of the area, but the southern boundary of the Warning needs to be firmed up. Temperatures will remain chilly through the short term, with highs today in the 50s, and a few degrees cooler on Wednesday.
A lobe of vorticity associated with an upper low over Lake Huron will rotate through the area early this morning.
With an upper level low stuck in the pattern over the Great Lakes and Northeast region, another wave will slide south over the OH Valley by this afternoon. The one caveat is the lack of moisture for this event so will expect the heavier precip to hold off till into the night and confined mostly to the higher terrain to the east.
Today: Plenty of sunshine today, but winds are expected to be on the light side due to high pressure moving through the Tri-State area.
Upper trough will recarve itself over the eastern U. Troughing will extend southwestward and a weak impulse will skirt our northern Plateau late this afternoon and into this evening. For tonight, freezing temps expected with lows in the 20s. No freezing product will be issued but will highlight the freezing temps in the hwo. Moving on, still cold on Wednesday, especially along the Plateau where they will be further into the teeth of a rather strong thermal trough. In fact, even with more in the way of sunshine, highs on Wednesday in the Plateau will be no warmer than the mid 40s or so.
An upper level low will swing through the Southern Appalachians late in the TAF period bringing -SN back into the TRI TAF after 01z.
Fair wx will return Wednesday as a mid level ridge builds in from the northwest.
Deterministic GFS/NAM/ECMWF predict a slow EWD progression in the upper pattern with a N-S ridge axis moving EWD toward the plains while a trough/low enters the West Coast.
High pressure over the plains states is expected to arrive tonight over Central Indiana. This will lead to partly cloudy conditions and warmer temperatures starting Wednesday through the rest of the work week.
Latest model soundings do show inversions lowering overnight, to the point where the saturated layer is just deep enough to catch the lower portion of the snow growth zone. Will increase PoPs this afternoon, as the next trough axis, swinging around the western flank of the 500 low, will increase lift and deepen the saturation layer. Snow showers will continue into Wednesday as the upper low moves eastward and colder air behind the exiting low spreads across the area.
144 AM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018 An upper level low moving across the Great Lakes into the Northeast will bring below normal temperatures and scattered snow showers into Tuesday night. Temperatures are starting to drop down to around freezing but road temperatures still look to be quite a bit above freezing so am not anticipating too much of a problem on roadways. While this activity will produce little snow accumulation, it can have a big impact on travel conditions, especially if road temperatures remain near or just below freezing as expected as this precipitation moves through. Favored cooler guidance for Tuesday highs while a MOS blend seemed reasonable for Tuesday night lows. An upper level low pressure will be centered across the northeastern United States with the ILN forecast area in the ageostrophic convergent side of the trough axis.
Scattered flurries to diminish near the Indiana border during early evening, then stratocumulus clouds and nw winds to decrease from the west during tonight as 1036 mb Canadian high pressure over ND settles southward into the Ozarks by dawn Wed. Colder lows in the lower 20s expected overnight. Strong upper level low moves over the Canadian Maritimes on Wed while Canadian high pressure moves over the southern MS river valley. Highs Wed range from mid 40s over eastern IL, to the lower 50s in west central IL.
A few lines of showers have moved across the area overnight in the warm sector ahead of the approaching cold front. The cold front will move through NorCal today accompanied by more widespread precipitation.
249 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018 High pressure will continue to build into the Mid-South over the next 24 hours and will settle over the area on Wednesday. The high will quickly shift southeast by Wednesday Night allowing winds to turn around to the south.
As this feature continues to push southeast, it will enable the upper level ridge to build over region during the next couple of days.
The mid-level vorticity maximum will continue to rotate southeast of the area this morning with cooler cyclonic flow lingering across the region. Warm air advection ahead of a weak cold front is expected to push highs into the upper 30s to near 50 degrees. High pressure builds in again Wednesday night for mostly clear skies and lows in the upper teens to middle 20s.
Today should be less windy and a little warmer than yesterday, with dry weather and mostly sunny skies. As winds calm down again overnight, temperatures are expected to drop near or a few degrees below freezing across the Gold Triangle and surrounding areas through northeast and north-central MS. Therefore the Freeze Watch has been upgraded to a Freeze Warnings for several counties where confidence is highest that temperatures will drop below freezing for a few hours. Areas from Meridian to Greenwood are a little less certain, but temperatures in those areas could still dip to freezing with frost expected. If wind speeds stay up a little bit overnight, temperatures will have a difficult time dropping below freezing.
526 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018 Omega blocking pattern aloft still set up across U. and Canada early this morning with low #1 just off the west coast, a high amplitude ridge over the Rockies and low #2 currently centered over the Great Lakes. At the surface, a Canadian high pressure system was building into the area from the north-northwest.
Cold front will continue to push away from Florida as high pressure moves in during the day. As the high pressure comes closer to Florida the breezy conditions from yesterday will slowly subside. High pressure will also lead to clear skies and cool temperatures with highs stuck in the 60's and lows ranging from the mid 30's along the Nature Coast to the mid 40's down south. A secondary dry cold front will quickly push through on Wednesday.
358 AM MDT Tue Mar 13 2018 Freezing fog across Hi-Line counties will clear through late morning. Periods of rain and snow return for the second half of the week, along with cooler temperatures. A high-amplitude ridge positioned directly over our forecast area is providing clear and calm weather conditions. Freezing fog is of primary interest this morning, having spread across North-central MT from Cut Bank to Great Falls to Havre. Given the potential for variable driving conditions with light icing and rapid changes in visibility, a freezing fog advisory was expanded to cover most of this area through noon. Temperatures continue to trend warmer today and Wednesday as the upper level ridge drifts into eastern Montana.
Temperatures ranged from the mid 20s to the low 30s across the area. Otherwise, high pressure continues to build south into the area. This high pressure will be the main forecast concern in the short term period. Temperatures are the main forecast concern in the short term as northerly flow and CAA at H85 will bring cooler temps in. With respect to yesterday, temperatures will be cooler. It will look warmer out than it will feel with wind gusts up to 30 MPH. Overall warming pattern is now replaced with a cooler pattern with one day of 50s.
153 AM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018 Cooler and drier air will overspread the region tonight as a low pressure system off the NC coast moves north.
352 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018 Weak upper trough on track to move across the Panhandles early this morning. This trough will bring cooler high temperatures across the area today, but it will also brought some light precip across the central Oklahoma Panhandle early this morning. Have retained low end POPs through the day as this trough continues to move across the area with light accumulation possible. Upper ridging is expected to dominate the pattern on Wednesday which will allow out temperatures to rocket back into the 70s.
424 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018 Latest surface analysis shows a large ridge of high pressure extending from the Northern Plains to the Louisiana Gulf Coast. Overnight lows will likely be near or below freezing across much of Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas.