Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Thereafter, high pressure will build overhead and remain in control through much of the week. Low pressure and the associated cold front track toward the area this weekend. While there is sufficient moisture in the mid/upper levels of the troposphere, the lowest 200-mb layer is very dry. As this mentioned system tracks toward the lower Ohio Valley, some flurries or light snow showers may impact the Allegheny Front tonight. By daybreak tomorrow, the upper level trough axis will be situated directly overhead. Large scale subsidence in the wake of the departing trough will encourage clouds to break up, leading to mostly sunny skies tomorrow. Winds will stay light as high pressure remains overhead, and high temperatures will range from the 20s/lower 30s in the mountains, to the lower 40s from the Virginia Piedmont to southern MD.
Much warmer than normal temperatures will continue through Tuesday with mostly clear skies and light winds. Significant rainfall is possible with snow over the high peaks. The upper level ridge is building over the state as expected with mild temperatures areawide. The ridge will crest overhead tonight then shift east while flattening as the strong westerlies continue sagging south.
919 PM EST Mon Dec 26 2022 High pressure will remain the dominant feature through late week. Unsettled weather is possible over the weekend as low pressure approaches from the west. Late this evening: Satellite imagery shows the forecast area situated in the cloud-free zone between the cirrus shield offshore and increasing overcast skies approaching from the west associated with a sharp mid-level trough diving into the Southeast. Trough will advance across the Rockies and into the Carolinas/Georgia region to start the forecast period Tuesday. Way too much dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere to support any sort of precip with the trough. High temps on Tuesday will run similar if not a few degrees warmer than today, upper 40s to lower 50s.
A much warmer air mass is settling in across north- central Idaho and across western Montana. However some valley inversions have been stubborn to scour out as seen by temps in the lower to mid 30s in the Bitterroot and Missoula Valleys. This leads to a continuation of freezing rain in these lower valleys. Areas across northwest Montana, lower valleys in Glacier NP and along Highway 200 east of Missoula will experience a mix of rain and freezing rain through Tuesday morning. Please use caution when traveling these corridors as some areas may be wet, however some areas may have small stretches of freezing rain which can be just as dangerous, especially at night. By Tuesday evening, the low pressure system sending moist Pacific air into the region will begin to traverse the Canadian border north of Montana.
326 PM CST Mon Dec 26 2022 A developing warm front across wrn Nebraska is beginning to move slowly east toward ncntl Nebraska.
18Z surface data has low pressure near KSPI. A cold front ran southwest from the low across southern Missouri and into Oklahoma. Dew points in the teens and 20s ran from the Ohio Valley into the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Plains. Otherwise expect quiet but cold conditions tonight as high pressure moves through the Midwest. Details: Tuesday night through this weekend: Deep trough moves into the Rockies with a southwest flow aloft. This will allow southerly winds to bring a much warmer airmass into the area.
508 PM CST Mon Dec 26 2022 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Mesoanalysis shows the cold front working its way into the Big Bend Area this afternoon, but this is not stopping afternoon highs continuing to recover from the big freeze a few days ago. Tuesday, return flow will increase in the east in response to leeside troughing on the Front Range ahead of the next upper trough. Out west, southwest flow will increase over the higher terrain, developing a modest mountain wave signature over the Guadalupes. Lows will continue to moderate, with most areas staying above freezing for the first time in a week or so.
While surface temperatures are around freezing, wet-bulbing is occurring and many locations have slipped back below the freezing mark -- generally ranging from 29 to 33 across the region. We have had several reports of hazardous bridges and overpasses with some roads in higher elevations already with a light snow covering. Precipitation will taper off during the 00-03z range this evening, but temperatures will drop steadily into the lower 20s. However, moist boundary layer conditions will result in the development of some pockets of freezing fog, especially in sheltered valleys.
A developing warm front across wrn Nebraska is beginning to move slowly east toward ncntl Nebraska.
An inverted trough will move through tonight associated with high pressure moving to our southwest. The pressure gradient also increases with the departing high to our southeast and strengthening low pressure over the northern plains.
Winds in the gap locations should then decrease tomorrow afternoon as the ridge axis aloft slides east and mid level winds back to the southwest and surface pressures fall to our west, weakening the gradient over the Paradise Valley and mountains driving the winds. We expect 3 to 6 inches of accumulation over the high country, mainly on west facing slopes. There may be some light rain/snow showers at the lower elevations Tuesday, with the best chance of measurable precipitation away from the downslope flow and across east central Montana including areas from the Snowies to Roundup and maybe down to Hysham. Anything at the lower elevations will be insignificant with no impacts. Tuesday night the lows will range from mid 30s west to upper 20s east.
711 PM EST Mon Dec 26 2022 Low pressure dropping southeast into the Tennesse Valley tonight will bring clouds to the area.
With blocking to our east fully removed in the next 24 hours, expect a pattern shift to a more chaotic and wet pattern, as the eastern Pacific opens up for at least a week. This storm track will be driven by a southward extension of the polar jet, which has been enabled by the release of the northeast CONUS blocking and the retrogression of the eastern Pacific ridge. Ahead of this pattern shift, the ridge has peaked over the region today, bringing us a fairly warm and pleasant afternoon. The ridge collapses on Tuesday, with increasing southwest winds, but still seasonably mild.
329 PM CST Mon Dec 26 2022 A developing warm front across wrn Nebraska is beginning to move slowly east toward ncntl Nebraska.
816 PM EST Mon Dec 26 2022 Mostly clear skies presently across inland SE GA where temperatures are already at or below the freezing mark.
333 PM CST Mon Dec 26 2022 Still rather cold across the CWA this afternoon, but warmer air is not too far to the west, where the warm front lies. Low-level temps begin increasing as well as the warm front pushes east, and all signs point to rising temps through the overnight hours, with most areas in the teens and 20s by sunrise Tuesday. Looks like we'll finally see CWA-wide milder temperatures on Tuesday as a warmer air mass will be in place. The good: warmer temps as arctic air should be long gone.
539 PM CST Mon Dec 26 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) A cold front barreling southward through Kansas has entered north central Oklahoma and will continue southward through the day, resulting in a temperature gradient of coldest northeast to warmest southwest.
Early evening IR satellite imagery is showing a thick band of cirrus clouds covering much of the Florida Peninsula as an upper level trough digs into the lower Mississippi River Valley. Another freeze is forecast for tonight over the Nature Coast, and if anything, temperatures are cooler there so far this evening than was previously forecast, so the freeze warnings look on track for Tuesday morning. Northeast winds of 10 to 15 mph are forecast through midweek with high pressure centered to the north.
(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Now that we are out of the deep freeze, temperatures around freezing this morning don't feel too bad. Winds have returned to the south after yesterdays week cold front. Thermal ridging over the area will give temperatures a boost to levels we haven't seen in a while. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s from the Permian Basin south to the Big Bend with 60s across the higher terrain and SE NM where the front will pass earlier in the day.
400 AM EST Tue Dec 27 2022 High pressure over the region moves offshore through today, allowing for a warming trend through the week. Sfc hi pres is expected to remain INVOF the FA through today while a weak trough aloft crosses the region this morning then exits this afternoon. then a clearing trend is expected this afternoon as the trough aloft departs. Hi pres aloft builds across the ern CONUS through mid week while a trough digs INVOF the west coast.
Temperatures across the area are below freezing ranging from the mid 20s to lower 30s. Temperatures across the entire area will climb above freezing by lunch time today. Temperatures will drop below freezing again overnight before a rapid warm up begins on Wednesday. Weak upper level ridging will move over the area on Wednesday with southerly low level winds.
(Today through Wednesday) A weak cold front across central and east Texas from near Waco to near Lufkin is noted in surface observations early this morning. Afternoon highs will range from the lower and mid 50s from Burnet to Austin to La Grange, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s elsewhere. At this time, any low clouds may be brief as moisture in the low-levels should be very shallow.
1104 PM EST Mon Dec 26 2022 Warmer weather is expected mid-week under high pressure and southwest flow.
The cold airmass over the region continues to gradually modify resulting in warmer temperatures each day.
238 AM CST Tue Dec 27 2022 Currently, a developing trough is just off the Pacific NW coast while weak ridging is building over the Plains. At the surface, the area of high pressure that drifted south across the overnight continues to push southeast of the area. A tightening pressure gradient will will bring increased winds to the region today through late Wednesday while the PCNW trough slides into the Great Basin. Temperatures will trend warmer through Wednesday, with southerly flow continuing to influence the region.
(Through Tonight) High pressure will continue to build across the southeastern US through Tonight. A 500mb trough will pass east across the area this morning, bringing with it an area of mid level cloudiness. The clouds will pass off to the east with the trough this afternoon. With the high building more to the north northeast Tonight, the flow will gradually become more onshore. This onshore flow will keep coastal locations warmer overnight.
These clouds will keep temperatures a bit warmer until they clear. These bands are in association with several vort maxes dropping southeast through the region with the digging upper trof and the associated ascent. I can't rule out a few flurries in the evening but in general they should be short-lived as the upper trof quickly exits southeast and heights aloft begin to rise later this evening and overnight. The big pattern change will continue to unfold on Wednesday featuring height rises aloft and a return to southwest flow aloft associated with a deepening trof in the western U. and ridging in the east.
With ice nucleation unlikely, precipitation is primarily falling as a light freezing drizzle. This is already developing some black ice conditions on roads, along with freezing of wet surfaces as temperatures are already in the 20s. By sunrise, ongoing freezing drizzle will likely be limited to the Evansville Tri-State and Kentucky Pennyrile, though lingering effects will remain elsewhere. Extra caution is needed on the sidewalks and when driving, especially on bridges/overpasses and untreated secondary roads. Temperatures are forecast to reach freezing by the early afternoon hours, with highs mainly in the mid-30s.
This should allow decreasing cloudiness over the Lower Susq River Valley. Lows by daybreak will range from the lower teens over the northern mountains, to near 20 across the Lower Susquehanna Valley.
Northeast winds of 10 to 15 mph are forecast through midweek with high pressure centered to the north.
WV loop shows a 500mb longwave trough axis along the MS/AL border. This trough will move through the CWA later today. At the surface, the weak trough associated with the clipper will also continue eastward with high pressure building in from the west. High pressure and dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the short term period. Currently, the clouds are keeping temps right around freezing in the northern suburbs, with temperatures just above freezing in the metro, Athens and southern suburbs. However, patchy black ice is possible on untreated roads and on elevated roadways such as bridges and overpasses.
1246 AM EST Tue Dec 27 2022 Warmer weather is expected mid-week under high pressure and southwest flow.
203 AM EST Tue Dec 27 2022 High pressure over the region moves offshore through today, allowing for a warming trend through the week. Sfc hi pres is expected to remain INVOF the FA through today while a weak trough aloft crosses the region this morning then exits this afternoon. then a clearing trend is expected this afternoon as the trough aloft departs. Hi pres aloft builds across the ern CONUS through mid week while a trough digs INVOF the west coast.
1232 AM EST Tue Dec 27 2022 Low pressure dropping southeast into the Tennesse Valley tonight will bring clouds to the area. High pressure and warmer temperatures will follow for Tuesday and Wednesday.
958 PM CST Mon Dec 26 2022 The steadily warming temperatures scenario appears to be panning out, with the low level WAA ongoing as a warm front approaches the CWA from the west. Still rather cold across the CWA this afternoon, but warmer air is not too far to the west, where the warm front lies. Low-level temps begin increasing as well as the warm front pushes east, and all signs point to rising temps through the overnight hours, with most areas in the teens and 20s by sunrise Tuesday. Looks like we'll finally see CWA-wide milder temperatures on Tuesday as a warmer air mass will be in place. The good: warmer temps as arctic air should be long gone.
The steadily warming temperatures scenario appears to be panning out, with the low level WAA ongoing as a warm front approaches the CWA from the west. Still rather cold across the CWA this afternoon, but warmer air is not too far to the west, where the warm front lies. Low-level temps begin increasing as well as the warm front pushes east, and all signs point to rising temps through the overnight hours, with most areas in the teens and 20s by sunrise Tuesday. Looks like we'll finally see CWA-wide milder temperatures on Tuesday as a warmer air mass will be in place. The good: warmer temps as arctic air should be long gone.
1011 PM EST Mon Dec 26 2022 Cold high pressure will bring dry conditions and well below normal temperatures into mid week.
1056 PM CST Mon Dec 26 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) A cold front barreling southward through Kansas has entered north central Oklahoma and will continue southward through the day, resulting in a temperature gradient of coldest northeast to warmest southwest.
1037 PM CST Mon Dec 26 2022 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Mesoanalysis shows the cold front working its way into the Big Bend Area this afternoon, but this is not stopping afternoon highs continuing to recover from the big freeze a few days ago. Tuesday, return flow will increase in the east in response to leeside troughing on the Front Range ahead of the next upper trough. Out west, southwest flow will increase over the higher terrain, developing a modest mountain wave signature over the Guadalupes. Lows will continue to moderate, with most areas staying above freezing for the first time in a week or so.
1245 AM EST Tue Dec 27 2022 High pressure will remain the dominant feature through late week. Unsettled weather is possible over the weekend as low pressure approaches from the west. Satellite imagery shows the forecast area situated in the cloud-free zone between the cirrus shield offshore and increasing overcast skies approaching from the west associated with a sharp mid-level trough diving into the Southeast. Trough will advance across the Rockies and into the Carolinas/Georgia region to start the forecast period Tuesday. Way too much dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere to support any sort of precip with the trough. High temps on Tuesday will run similar if not a few degrees warmer than today, upper 40s to lower 50s.
112 AM EST Tue Dec 27 2022 Cold high pressure will bring dry conditions and well below normal temperatures into mid week.
1158 PM EST Mon Dec 26 2022 High pressure over the region moves offshore by Wednesday, allowing for a warming trend through the week. While this is still a little colder than avg, it is several degrees warmer than the past 2 nights. After the short wave moves through, significant height rises are expected across the eastern United States as a trough digs over the west coast.
1130 PM CST Mon Dec 26 2022 (This evening through Wednesday) Satellite imagery was showing considerable low/mid clouds sweeping southeast over the forecast area in association with an upper trough located over much of the midsouth/midwest. A cold front was evident in surface observations over the northwestern third of Arkansas. This will cause surface winds over the forecast area to become northwesterly as the cold front advances southeast. Overnight, skies will begin clearing as the upper low pushes east. The front will also bring a reinforcing shot of cold air and lows tonight will generally range from the mid teens over the northern higher terrain to the lower 20s over the far southeast. Afternoon high temperatures will generally range from the mid 30s over the northern higher terrain to the lower 40s over the far south.
(Today and tonight) Today will be a transition day toward a warmer pattern for the Southern Plains as a longwave trough across the Midwest begins to deamplify and lift to the northeast. As the low-level flow increases from the tightening pressure gradient, the modified Canadian air mass will erode as a warmer air mass advects into the Southern Plains.
(This afternoon through Tuesday) Most locations besides a few areas across far North GA, where cloud cover has increased, have risen above freezing this afternoon! Current readings range from the low 30s across the north of mid 40s across south-central GA. The 12z sounding for FFC and subsequent forecast soundings still show a good bit of dry air in the low levels so any precip will struggle to reach the sfc. Precip is expected to come to an end shortly after midnight as the main upper trough starts to push through the region.
300 AM EST Tue Dec 27 2022 After a few morning flurries today, dry weather and a warming trend is expected through late week under high pressure.
(Tuesday through Wednesday) As Tuesday dawns, northerly flow aloft will persist in the wake of the passing trough, as upper level ridging builds in from the west. For the course of the short term forecast period, the aforementioned ridging and zonal pattern will maintain quiet conditions, with PoP grids entirely devoid of rainfall through wednesday evening. Lows will fall to near or just below the freezing mark one more time before the regime change truly takes hold, ranging from the upper 20s northeast to low to mid 30s south and west. Wednesday will see southwest flow truly make itself known, with highs 10 to 15 degrees warmer than today, ranging from the low 60s north to close to 70 south, setting the tone for the warm pattern which looks set to persist through the end of the year.
Highs above normal are expected into 2023, including several days with highs near or above freezing.
632 AM EST Tue Dec 27 2022 Patchy mist/freezing fog possible this morning and partly cloudy to cloudy skies today with slightly warmer temperatures and increasing winds. A trend towards much warmer temperatures will continue through the upcoming week and perhaps some rain later this week. Surface temperatures remain below freezing into this morning so if fog is able to form within this setup, we'll need to watch for slick spots especially with the roadways likely still cold, allowing for freezing fog. With the high pressure to our west, models indicate cloud cover may be the most likely to break across western areas, but that areas especially south of US-24 may hang tough into the daytime.
Clouds clear out by the afternoon with temperatures finally rising above freezing area-wide. High pressure across the area tonight will result in light winds and a clear sky allowing temperatures to drop into the 20s for most locations.
Zonal flow develops across the Rockies today, inducing lee troughing and resulting in breezy south to southwest winds across the area, along with warmer temperatures. Afternoon temperatures will be near normal for this time of year, with highs mainly in the lower 60s. Breezy conditions will persist across the area tonight, along with warmer temperatures. We finally stay above freezing, with overnight lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
415 AM MST Tue Dec 27 2022 Current surface analysis this morning shows a warm front running north/south through our western SD plains region. At the upper levels, mild ridging sits over the MT/WY area. As the day goes on, ridge is expected to slide over the Dakotas. Upper ridging and WAA will make for a warm day today, with high temperatures in the 40s and 50s throughout the forecast area. By Wednesday morning we see a pattern shift, as upper troughing digs into the western CONUS, with a couple chances for precipitation.
640 AM EST Tue Dec 27 2022 The cold airmass over the region continues to gradually modify resulting in warmer temperatures each day.
505 AM CST Tue Dec 27 2022 (Today and tonight) Today will be a transition day toward a warmer pattern for the Southern Plains as a longwave trough across the Midwest begins to deamplify and lift to the northeast. As the low-level flow increases from the tightening pressure gradient, the modified Canadian air mass will erode as a warmer air mass advects into the Southern Plains.
Today high temperatures are expected to climb into the low to mid 20s. As high pressure exits the Great Lakes Region and Low pressure advance ins from the Plains, the pressure gradient is expected to contract and bring some gusty conditions to Wisconsin.
506 AM MST Tue Dec 27 2022 Upper trof will slide across the region over the next few days along with development of an Alberta low. Warm front slides over northern Montana with a little overrunning precipitation possible. Temperature profiles suggest mostly rain but with colder, snow covered surfaces could end up as freezing rain. The remainder of the week should feature a longwave flat trof with cooler temperatures, closer to normal for the end of December. MVFR conditions are possible along with a few periods of rain or freezing rain in the afternoon and early evening.
Discussion: A fairly quiet forecast is on tap this week with upper ridging settling in today after yesterdays cold front. In fact, most of the area will see above freezing temperatures for the first time since Wednesday the 21st. Afternoon gusts could reach around 20 to 25 mph, and expect gusty conditions to continue into the overnight as western US troughing amplifies and the pressure gradient increases. Even warmer temperatures are expected as we head into Wednesday with continued southerly flow and temperatures rising to the upper 40s to 50 degrees.
(Today through Wednesday Night) A weak cold front will be passing over the area within the next few hours, but not causing much noise as it comes through. Dewpoints will rapidly start increasing heading into Wednesday morning, reaching the mid 40s by mid-morning and the low 50s by mid-day.
304 AM CST Tue Dec 27 2022 Key Messages: - Warmer conditions finally arrive - Generally low precipitation chances ahead Detailed Discussion: As a deep trough shifts east, frigid conditions will (finally) exit the region beginning today.