Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
upper ridge is centered over the ArkLaTex region this morning with plenty of dry air in the mid and upper levels indicated on water vapor imagery. At the surface, a trough lies east-west along the Gulf Coast. Global models and CAMs are in agreement that the ridging and drying of the column will reduce convective coverage today while also allowing for another round of high heat indices.
637 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK. MIXING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON MAY CAUSE THEM TO DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S. GIVEN HOW GREEN AND MOIST IT IS AT GROUND LEVEL CANNOT SEE TEMPS GETTING WARMER THAN GUIDANCE NUMBERS TODAY. BETTER CHANCES WILL COME SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
647 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES SHIFTING INTO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND THE CATSKILLS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL TOP 90 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES DUE TO THE HIGH HUMIDITY. THE INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE STRONG STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. BY MIDDAY THE TROF THAT IS CAUSING THIS THE CONVECTION NOW OVER NY STATE WILL SPARK A 2ND ROUND OF STORMS ROUGHLY STARTING NEAR THE KELM/KITH/KBGM AREA IN THE 16Z TO 17Z TIME FRAME. DID LITTLE WITH TEMPS, WITH MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE 90-92 RANGE, AND ELEVATIONS 84 TO 88.
641 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THIS WEEKEND.
/ISSUED 404 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015/ ZONAL UA RIDGE AXIS IS ON TRACK TO CONTINUE DRIFTING NORTH AND BY MIDDAY SHOULD BE ATOP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ADDED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD TROUGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA AND WESTERN WYOMING WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. THE TROUGH HAS SENT A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF WYOMING AND WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTH TONIGHT AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY.
MIDLEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
Saturday and Sunday high pressure returns, with warmer weather.
404 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015 ZONAL UA RIDGE AXIS IS ON TRACK TO CONTINUE DRIFTING NORTH AND BY MIDDAY SHOULD BE ATOP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
321 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK. MIXING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON MAY CAUSE THEM TO DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S. GIVEN HOW GREEN AND MOIST IT IS AT GROUND LEVEL CANNOT SEE TEMPS GETTING WARMER THAN GUIDANCE NUMBERS TODAY. BETTER CHANCES WILL COME SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
336 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015 WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OVER MN AND WI PUTS THE CWFA SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE UPPER 70S THIS MORNING. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A STRONG WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE DAKOTAS. GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY ALREADY IN PLACE. A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. AS THE COLD FRONT ENHANCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW.
SAT IMAGERY SHOWS ACTIVE TROUGH OVER PACNW REGION THIS MORNING. REMNANTS OF CONVECTION LOOK TO LINGER OVERNIGHT AS TROUGH OPENS AND SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST. SUNDAY PRIMARILY DRY WITH WEAK RIDGE ALOFT.
314 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015 ALL CONVECTION HAS EXITED THE REGION AND A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY.
112 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE A RUN AT SPREADING NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. VERY MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 90 DEG AND DEW POINTS WILL CREEP INTO THE LOW 70'S. CLOUDS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL SOME RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW.
329 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN FROM SW TO S TODAY AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS NORTH INTO SOUTH FL.
KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS WELL TO THE NORTH. ANY STORMS THAT FIRE WILL BE MORE THEN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS DUE TO THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND PWATS OF 1. PRECIP PROBABILITIES WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. UPPER HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY MAINTAINING A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM. SE WINDS DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT WITH A FEW TO SCT CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING KEEPING TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER TONIGHT.
130 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDES WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT CAUSING SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. COLD FRONT IN VICINITY EARLY IN WORK WEEK. ITS TURNING INTO A STICKY NIGHT OUT THERE WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS. WHICH IS OF CONCERN DUE TO THE LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOLLOWING THIS PAST WEEKS ACTIVE PATTERN. A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR.
THE CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAKE THE LOCATION OF A WEAK COLD FRONT HARDER TO DEFINE. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS BRING THE WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID DAY. EITHER WAY HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AT LEAST A BIT COOLER. THUNDERSTORMS ON THE HIGH PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER EAST TX AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS WELL AS WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN MCALLEN IS FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTURY MARK TODAY AND WILL NOT BE FAR FROM THE RECORD OF 104 DEGREES FOR THIS DATE SET IN 2009.
530 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2015 High pressure remains centered over the southern states. Highs today will be near seasonal values ranging from the low to mid 90s. the combination of a tropical air mass and recent rains will keep dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s creating very humid conditions with heat index values across the region ranging from 99 to 109 degrees during the afternoon hours. The highest heat index values are forecast along the Kansas-Missouri border on into central Missouri. Highs will be a degree or two warmer and should be in the mid 90s across the entire area. With dewpoints continuing in the low to mid 70s. it will suppress the upper level ridge just enough to allow a surface boundary to move into the region on Sunday.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING. A SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. THIS OPPRESSIVE AIRMASS WILL INCLUDE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S.
131 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS COMBINES WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S. MORE STRONG SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. EXTREMELY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND WILL SEE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR WARM SECTOR SHOWERS EARLY.
343 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015 THE CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z MODEL CYCLE IS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD STRONG ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH TODAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL KEEP A LID ON ANY CONVECTION. BY LATE SUNDAY THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE WEST. ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO ADVANCE ON THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
TO THE LOW/MID 70S ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. THIS IN TURN IS GOING TO SET UP THE AREA FOR YET ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90F AS REGION IS STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD H5 RIDGE STRETCHING OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. A PROGGED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SINK SOUTH THRU THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECTING TRW CONDITIONS TO BEGIN TO WANE BY 06Z- 08Z SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WORKING OVER AREA.
319 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT LEAVING THE AREA IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS FOR SUNDAY.
LESS STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER SE GA WHERE MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL EXIST ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST. MID/UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EASTERN TEXAS WILL BEGIN TO GET FLATTENED OUT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST U. THE TROUGH WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE IT COMBINES WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND SEABREEZE MERGERS.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSING INTO THE AREA WILL MAKE FOR THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 100S. HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTH. AND EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA.
AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER EAST TX AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS WELL AS WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN MCALLEN IS FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTURY MARK TODAY AND WILL NOT BE FAR FROM THE RECORD OF 104 DEGREES FOR THIS DATE SET IN 2009.
308 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THIS WEEKEND.
ANY STORMS THAT FIRE WILL BE MORE THEN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS DUE TO THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND PWATS OF 1. PRECIP PROBABILITIES WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING INTO SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AS MONSOONAL; MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
BY MON AFTERNOON THE DEEP UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. BEYOND THIS POINT THE GFS AND ECMWF REALLY START TO DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF DIGGING A TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW WED MORNING AND SWINGING IT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS ISN'T NEARLY AS ROBUST WITH THIS TROUGH. LAWSON BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA.
HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS DO MOISTEN UP IN THE LOWER LAYERS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. AND WITH TEMPS BELOW FREEZING WILL GO WITH FLURRIES FOR NOW.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE FRONT RANGE WITH FAVORABLE NW FLOW KEEPING SNOW GOING ACROSS THE NRN MTNS.
635 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2016 CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN FORECAST OVERNIGHT SO HAD TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. A CONSENSUS OF SHORT TERM GUIDANCE DID A PRETTY GOOD JOB IN DEPICTING THE WARMER START. ARE THE HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WAS KEEPING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
427 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2016 ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO THE COOLER SHELF WATERS NEAR THE COAST.
THESE CEILINGS WILL BE TEMPORARY AS DRIER LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE IS QUICKLY WORKING ITS WAY EASTWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT AS OF 11Z WAS NEAR A FSM. /ISSUED 431 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2016/ WEAK UPPER TROF MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THIS MORNING. MODELS HAVE INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY OF SHWRS/TSTMS WITH THIS TROF FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE TROF AXIS IS FCST TO BE E OF OUR REGION BY THE OFFICIAL BEGINNING OF THE FCST PD. WHEN THE TROF WILL BE OVHD.
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST.
Light snow may continue in many places overnight with some clearing possible and cooler temperatures to start the day Saturday. A less certain aspect of the forecast is the amount of warmer air associated with it and thus how high will snow levels rise. There is also a chance that many valley locations will remain stable with below freezing temperature, so it is not out of the question for pockets of freezing rain to develop late in the day on Saturday generally along I-90 and south.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S. HIGHS TODAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WARMER THAN THEY ARE AT SUNRISE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PUMP A COOLER DRIER AIRMASS BACK ACROSS THE REGION. TONIGHTS LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S. THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
AT LEAST SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY WAVE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
536 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2016 ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.
823 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2016 INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. RAIN FROM THE LOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACRS THE WV/MD RIDGES BY THIS EVENING. SNOW SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE SAT IN COLD ADVECTION AND BROAD UPR TROFG. AND IN THE RIDGES WHERE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED. SCT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE MON IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND UPR TROFG.
601 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2016 Latest surface analysis had low pressure centered over southwest Wisconsin, with the trailing cold front extending southwest into the southern Plains. The low is forecast to reach eastern Michigan by this evening, with the cold front expected to be east of the forecast area by mid-afternoon. Next lobe of Arctic air poised to start its southward push, associated with a large upper low currently just north of Lake Winnipeg.
1100 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2016 INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. RAIN FROM THE LOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACRS THE WV/MD RIDGES BY THIS EVENING. SNOW SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE SAT IN COLD ADVECTION AND BROAD UPR TROFG. AND IN THE RIDGES WHERE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED. SCT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE MON IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND UPR TROFG.
335 AM PST FRI JAN 15 2016 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TODAY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING SLOW WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
CLEAR SKIES AND DRIER ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS PASSING TROUGH AND BOUNDARY. WITH HIGHS AROUND FIVE DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW.
LOOK FOR MSUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS. THIS TROF WILL DIG SEWD TOWARD THE BIG BEND AREA AND INITIATE SOME SHRA AND POSSIBLY ELEVATED TSRA AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY MORNING THRU EARLY EVNG HOURS.
AS WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES FURTHER INTO THE AREA ADDITIONAL COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA COULD BE CLEARED OUT OF THE ADVISORY SHORTLY. SUNNY AND DRY TODAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND IN THE LOW LEVELS HAVE HELPED TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE STARTED OFF BELOW FREEZING IN A FEW LOCATIONS BUT ARE WARMING UP AS PRECIPITATION APPROACHES. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS SOUTH AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE COULD BE AMOUNTS OF UP TO HALF AN INCH. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 52 40 47 31 / 100 30 10 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 53 37 44 31 / 90 30 10 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 51 37 43 31 / 80 30 10 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 47 33 43 28 / 90 50 10 20.
636 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2016 INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SINCE THE TWO SYSTEMS DON'T APPEAR TO PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER UNTIL THE NORTHERN STREAM'S COLD FRONT CROSSES. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES. FZDZ SHOULD NOT BE A WIDESPREAD ISSUE AS MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY.
A LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST SURFACE WIND AND A MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DRY OUT THE LOW LAYERS THROUGH THE DAY. THE DRY AIR ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO TO WARM UP RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH MAX TEMPS TOPPING OUT MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S IN SOME MID AND LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS. FAIR AND CALM TONIGHT BEFORE A POTENT LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF SATURDAY. THE TROUGH DEEPENS AS IT ENTERS TEXAS INDUCING THE LOW PRESSURE AREA. WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OUT WEST AND SPREAD EASTWARD AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST.
1040 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2016 CURRENTLY - A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST IS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW IS DRIVING STRONG SOUTHERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS AHEAD AS THE STILL STRONG FLOW TRANSITIONS SOUTHWESTERLY AND IN THE CONFLUENT ZONE AHEAD OF A MARGINAL COLD FRONT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS RESPONSIBLE FOR FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY BREEZES. AND SHARPLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS.
940 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2016 UPPER ENERGY AND A SURFACE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY.
648 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2016 UPPER ENERGY AND A SURFACE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S INLAND TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT VEERING WIND TO THE EAST NORTHEAST WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS. SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL PROMOTE SFC WINDS TO RETURN TO A SRLY FLOW. WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO BE COOLER TODAY /MAINLY IN THE 50S/ THAN YESTERDAY. UA TROUGHINESS WILL. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING IN OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL DROP 850 MB TEMPS TO BELOW 0 C AND SFC TEMPS FALLING TO/BELOW FREEZING. OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX /SE ZONES LOOKS TO REMAIN ALL LIQUID AS SFC TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING/. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT COLDER SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS.
401 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2016 A cold front is moving across the forecast area early this morning bringing an end to the unseasonably warm weather we have enjoyed the past couple days.
THE AXIS OF THE SHORT WAVE TROF CROSSING THE CWA THIS MORNING EXTENDS FROM NRN UT SWWD TO W CENTRAL NV. THE SWRN PORTION OF THE TROF BRINGS INCREASING LIFT TO SWRN UT AND EXPECT SNOW TO INCREASE THERE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. MORNING MODELS DO SHOW THE TROF AXIS CROSSING THAT PORTION OF THE CWA AROUND 18Z WITH PRECIP WINDING DOWN QUICKLY BEHIND IT. UPSTREAM RIDGING SHOULD SHUT EVERYTHING DOWN TONIGHT BUT WARM ADVECTION LIFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PAC TROF SPREADS INTO THE NRN CWA BY MIDDAY SAT AND SNOW LOOKS TO REDEVELOP IN THE MTNS BEFORE NOON. THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IF A SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD AIR PERSISTS ACROSS THE NW DESERTS.
521 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2016 MUCH COOLER ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN TO WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY. COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS TODAY AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM THE BLACK HILLS TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
535 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2016 COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN WITH A WARM FRONT AND THEN WILL OCCLUDE.
431 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2016 WEAK UPPER TROF MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THIS MORNING. MODELS HAVE INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY OF SHWRS/TSTMS WITH THIS TROF FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE TROF AXIS IS FCST TO BE E OF OUR REGION BY THE OFFICIAL BEGINNING OF THE FCST PD. WHEN THE TROF WILL BE OVHD.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF YNP WILL FARE BEST FROM IT WITH UP TO 8 OR 9 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT QUICKLY INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATER THIS MORNING AND ITS PRECIP WILL BE LONG GONE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A TRANSITORY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE CWA. THE NEXT ONE WILL MAKE INROADS INTO THE NORTHERNMOST PART OF OUR CWA VERY LATE TONIGHT BUT IT WILL BE FORCED TO RIDE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE SATURDAY WHICH WILL JUST WEAKEN THE STORM THIS FAR SOUTH.
AND THE SUPPORTING TROUGH IS TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED. ERN PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING CLEARING LATER TODAY BUT THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM WILL BE RIGHT BEHIND WITH SNOW STARTING AGAIN IN HARNEY COUNTY BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY AND OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS WITH THAT STORM WITH THE SNOW LEVEL RISING TO NEAR 3500 FEET MSL SATURDAY.
THE MODELS WERE SHOWING RISING THETA SURFACES IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS MORNING. THIS WAS HELPING STEEPEN THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND YIELDING TO SOME UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN THAT REGION THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE BETWEEN 03-06Z THIS EVENING BRINGING A WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW AND CONTINUED LOW CIGS.
MOISTURE RETURN WAS LOW AND DEWPOINTS HAVE ONLY CREPT UP INTO THE LOW 60S SO INSTABILITY IS VERY LOW. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO CLEARING AND WARM CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS. SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OFFSHORE TODAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH SHOWERS AS THEY PUSH THROUGH AROUND MID-DAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE OVER THE WARMER OFFSHORE WATERS.
THE TRI-CITIES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BE SLIDING DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS AND COULD BRING FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST AREA. STRATUS IS COMING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS EXPECTED.
930 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF STATES WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE. WINDS TURN WLY BEHIND THE LOW. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY/FIRST HALF OF SAT NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC. RESULTING IN TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE.
GUST WLY WINDS CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH LATE YESTERDAY AND EARLY THIS MORNING. /ISSUED 1101 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015/ SFC OBS SHOW THE COLD FRONT NOW WELL EAST OF THE AREA. COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN LOUISIANA AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING.
VFR conditions will continue through this evening, though given light winds and clearing skies as well as snowcover, expect freezing fog to develop overnight. Satl imagery shows the upper low continuing to lift northeast out of Northeast Texas. Flat ridging will bring dry weather to the CWA. with temps on Tuesday about 5-10 degrees warmer. A trof will pass over the High Plains on Tuesday but with the best moisture to the north expect conditions to remain dry.