Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Low pressure system now over central OK will continue eastward with MVFR cloud deck slowly retreating. Cold air advection will utilize wrap-around moisture from departing strong closed low to promote the development of MVFR to VFR stratocumulus this evening. Light northwest winds Saturday morning will trend to west and southwest by day's end as next lee trof develops over eastern New Mexico. /Issued 403 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/ The vigorous closed upper low over the extreme eastern Texas Panhandle late today will exit the Panhandles by this evening with skies clearing behind the departing upper low as subsidence prevails. An upper ridge will build in over the Panhandles early this weekend but will quickly move east by Sunday as another Southern stream closed upper low approaches the Panhandles from the west by Sunday.
531 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Weather across the OK and TX Panhandles should be rather tranquil today and tonight as brief upper level ridging translates across the srn high plains. A dry cold front will also track through the area on Sunday with northwest to north winds in the breezy category.
249 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Early this morning an upper level low was located across northeast OK. The upper low will track northeast across MO Today and Tonight. As the upper low moves farther northeast across central and northeast MO, the residual moisture and ascent will shift east of the CWA, bringing an end to the precipitation.
A cold front is still expected to cross the area this morning. The best chances for rain, and snow in the higher elevations, will be from Sheridan to Ekalaka where the right rear quad of the jet will be producing some decent ascent. This will result in another warmer and drier day across the area.
451 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 A cold front will sag southward across Pennsylvania today and tonight, before returning north as a warm front late Sunday and Sunday night.
The upper level trough will move east across the Great Basin today. High pressure aloft will return briefly on Sunday, followed by another storm system for early in the upcoming week.
424 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 A pleasant day in store for today as the trough that brought windy conditions across West Texas and southeast New Mexico continues its trek eastward. The next trough in a progressive pattern will move ashore today and move eastward across the Four Corners region. Strong upper level winds will accompany this trough and likely bring high winds to the Guadalupe Mountains again.
648 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 A southerly flow ahead of low pressure will provide warm temperatures and mainly dry weather today. Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop tonight through Sunday when the low is forecast to travel to the Western Great Lakes.
307 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Larger band of showers and storms has shifted eastward into eastern MO this morning with another area of storms developing over northeast OK / southeast KS underneath the cutoff low pressure system affecting the region. Stronger storms developed further to the south over central AR / Northern LA in the vicinity of a 50 knot low level jet and low level moist axis over the lower Miss Valley. As the upper low moves along the Interstate 44 corridor, cooler mid level temperatures will destabilize the region, especially during the afternoon.
This activity was occurring along a trough in advance of a cold front that stretches from eastern OK south acrs eastern TX, part of a large vertically stacked low pres system over OK that is moving toward the lower/mid MS valley. 24 HRRR, NAM and RAP guidance this morning have been indicating another line of convection developing behind the existing one, along the cold front. Convection will shift east through the aftn as the upper trough axis pivots east. The cold front will not make it through the area however, instead stalling and weakening. Highs today are expected to reach the lower 80s. Some cooler air could slip into our northwestern zones tonight, allowing for low temperatures to fall into the middle 50s, but otherwise lows are only forecast to reach the lower to middle 60s.
344 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 A warm front will push north of the region Saturday before sagging south ward across central Pennsylvania Saturday night and Sunday. increasing clouds and southeast flow are expected on Sunday as the boundary sags southward as a backdoor cold front. bringing cooler conditions and eventually some patchy drizzle or light rain.
436 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 A cold front over central New York and southern New England will drift south through the Tri-State Region today.
As large upper low cont to pull east this morning, could have a few lingering showers across northeast parts of the area. Otherwise, anticipate a quieter day today with diminishing northwest winds and cooler temperatures.
441 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 A pleasant day in store for today as the trough that brought windy conditions across West Texas and southeast New Mexico continues its trek eastward. The next trough in a progressive pattern will move ashore today and move eastward across the Four Corners region. Strong upper level winds will accompany this trough and likely bring high winds to the Guadalupe Mountains again.
1132 PM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Daytime satellite imagery shows a departing low pressure system centered over the southern high plains. Not expecting freezing temperatures in the Grand Valley and points westward along the Colorado River, but higher mountain valleys will certainly experience their coldest night in several days. Cloud cover will thicken through the day on Saturday with precipitation beginning first in the eastern Uintas by noon, and into the higher elevations of western Colorado by 6pm.
Satellite imagery shows the upper low over northeast Oklahoma while the next upper trough moves into southern California. The upper low will move through the Ozarks today and northeast into the western Great Lakes region Sunday afternoon. The cold front was just west of College Station to San Antonio to Eagle Pass at 09Z.
Main system of interest is a slow moving upper trough across the southern plains. The trough axis will move into the Tennessee Valley late today and tonight.
An upper level trough of low pressure will sweep across the Northern Rockies Sat night and Sun. This will bring snow to the higher terrain Sat night, then as the trough axis passes to the east on Sun brisk northerly winds will drop down eastern Colorado, bringing pcpn to the e plains through the evening and dropping temps.
239 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 High pressure will shift to our east today ahead of a front that will move into our region late Saturday night and Sunday. Morning lows still on track to fall to the lower to mid 50s. The upper ridge axis moves east of the area, with the upper flow pattern becoming out of the southwest, which will bring Gulf moisture northward in the mid levels.
345 AM PDT Sat Mar 25 2017 A weak low pressure system moving inland through Southern California will bring gusty west winds to the mountains and deserts through this evening and a few light showers early this morning. Warmer and dry for Sunday.
A warming trend will continue into the weekend with many inland areas a few to several degrees above normal while onshore flow keeps conditions cooler near the coast. A mid/upper level ridge continues to build over the Four Corners Region this afternoon while a persistent trough remains off of the Pacific Northwest Coast. Daytime temperatures on Friday will warm by a few degrees as the upper level trough to the north shifts inland and to the northeast. A more robust warming trend over inland areas is expected this weekend as the mid/upper level ridge over the central and southwestern portion of the country builds to the west.
More of the same is on tap for the short term period, with the upper level ridge remaining entrenched over the area.
552 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 Expect warm and humid conditions across the region tomorrow before a cold front approaches later in the day.
but as the upper ridge builds up a little on Fri. The upper low and across northern ID on Fri. This will drag a dry cold front across the area. resulting in windy conditions on Fri and a little cooler temps Fri thru Mon. A cold front will arrive on Friday. A cold front will arrive on Friday.
332 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2016 Low pressure moving across the Pacific Northwest will bring gusty winds this evening especially north of Interstate 80. These conditions are created by a low pressure system currently centered near the Pacific Northwest coast. This will lead to gusty ridgetop winds continuing tonight through Friday along with very dry conditions. Away from the ridges, winds should be lighter Friday afternoon due to a weaker thermal gradient, with more typical afternoon gusts up to 25 mph.
(Issued 1106 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016) Morning temps are warming up slightly faster than yesterday with temps in the lower to upper 80s depending on cloud cover. The upper-level ridge remains anchored in the central and southern plains providing hot conditions ranging from ND/MT down to the Gulf Coast! TN Valley temps will warm up into the upper 90s this afternoon.
304 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016 A sprawling upper-level ridge remains anchored over the southern high plains, drifting slightly westward on Friday. We expect a very mild night again, with lows ranging in the upper 60s in the west to upper 70s in the low Rolling Plains. Forecast remains largely on track as the center of a broad ridge is still favored to retreat to around the Four Corners by Friday night while deamplifying through the weekend.
The remainder of the weekend looks dry with seasonal temperatures as high pressure builds into the northeast. Rising upper level heights and high pressure in the vicinity will bring the area another mostly sunny day with just some cirrus mainly in the northern forecast area.
Increasing instability and moisture will be advected around this area of merging low pressure at the surface into areas of central and eastern Montana.
1236 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016 Upper level high pressure will bring yet another hot and humid day to the region.
337 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016 Hot and humid weather continues under expansive upper ridge.
High pressure ridge aloft extends itself robustly from the central Plains thru the mid Mississippi valley to mid Appalachia.
Expect warm and humid conditions across the region tomorrow before a cold front approaches later in the day.
320 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 A large ridge of high pressure over the central portion of the United States will bring hot and humid conditions to the Ohio Valley through the weekend.
Persistent upper high remains anchored over Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle with a resultant Southwest flow aloft over Colorado. The upper high is progged to shift slowly Westward into New Mexico by later tonight but the moist plume still expected to remain over Northern Colorado with little overall change expected.
/ISSUED 240 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016/ A strong ridge of high pressure aloft will remain anchored over the central and southern high plains through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Mid level heights will reach as high as 598 decameters which indicates subsidence will be strong across North-Central Texas, despite moisture trapped within the ridge as shown by morning water vapor satellite imagery.
Am keeping no mention of storms for friday daytime, as the upper ridge line passes over the area, and capping holds sway. This all leaves the heat as still the big story through Friday, and in fact there may not even be the slight drop off in the heat index that we envisioned earlier, so, adding the lows in the 70s tonight, and with highs in the 90s to 100 Friday, keeping the heat warning through the day is an easy decision.
Warmer air aloft compared to previous days and lack of any forcing mechanism has limited both coverage and longevity. North- northwest flow aloft on the eastern periphery of the upper high merits close watching of this activity.
As the previous forecast crew did earlier, we increased dewpoints from the consensus guidance given the low dewpoint biases from the past several days. Plenty of lift with the aid of the nose of the low level jet punching into western North Dakota.
A large ridge of high pressure is centered over the southern Plains. This means that any disturbances along the northern edge of the ridge may get steered southward into our area this evening. Moisture is plentiful as evidenced in our 12Z TAE sounding with a PW of almost 2 inches and the airmass in place is unstable with quick heating today at the surface, but much cooler air aloft. The high heat and humidity will also make our highs in the mid-upper 90s this afternoon feel like they're around 104-107. Overnight, temperatures will fall to the low 70s.
317 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016 Water vapor imagery continues to show strong upper high centered over OK with fair weather cumulus over roughly the eastern half of the area. By tomorrow, upper high begins to shift westward. Guidance continues to show temps a couple of degrees warmer tomorrow than today.
122 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 A weak cold front will sag south of the area today, then slightly drier high pressure will briefly build in from the north. Atlantic high pressure will rebuild over the weekend while an inland trough prevails.
1125 AM PDT Thu Jul 21 2016 High pressure will build over the Inland today and will result in mostly clear skies and light winds. A cold front will bring a chance for thunderstorms Thursday night and Friday, along with breezy west winds. ï»¿Morning update: Low pressure is on the move off the Pacific Northwest coast. The southwest flow and ridge ahead of it will bring some of the warmest temperature since late June. A dynamic upper level low pressure system will then move in tonight into Friday morning.
It is becoming more apparent that the biggest heat wave of the season is about to hit the region as mid level high pressure remains anchored over the central Plains, and even begins to expand further east as we get into the weekend.
410 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 High pressure builds offshore tonight and Friday.
After high temperatures in the lower to middle 90s this afternoon, lows tonight will only drop into the middle to upper 70s.
342 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016 Continued focus for the short term forecast period remains the strong upper level high and very warm temperatures across the area.
A strong upper high center over the south-central CONUS will continue to bake the region with above normal heat into this weekend, while subtropical moisture circulates around the periphery of the high.
147 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 A strong upper level ridge centered over the southern plains will continue to expand northeast into the the western Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today causing hot and humid conditions. There is a low chance of thunderstorms west of I69 today, and across the entire area tonight as a weak low pressure system moves across southern Ontario and into the lower Great Lakes.
357 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016 A weak cold front is located across northwest Wisconsin at mid afternoon, and continuing to sag slowly southeastward. As this weak front continues to progress southeastward, the low chances of additional thunderstorms will continue to drop, and the higher dewpoint air will also finally be temporarily shunted off to the south of the DLH CWA. Weak high pressure will then be in control tonight and Friday across the Northland.
Another Round of Strong to Possibly Severe Storms Friday/Friday A broad ridge of high pressure controlling much of the country will remain in control into tonight but an upper low off the Pacific NW coast will nudge east and allow for the chance of showers late tonight. On Friday, the upper low moves east across the Pacific NW allowing for a strong diffluent SW flow to develop across the area. Friday Night, the upper trough moves into the area and allows the atmosphere to remain quite unstable.
356 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 High pressure along the east coast will drift south through friday. This will allow a weak cold front to sag southward across the central Great Lakes Friday night.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): 500mb ridge across the south central and southeast United States will allow moisture across the Gulf of Mexico to move westward into northeast Mexico and the Rio Grande valley tonight into Friday. This will continue to provide a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the coastal waters tonight into Friday as well as across the coastal sections of the CWA Friday as outflow from convection offshore the lower Texas coast moves inland.
This is providing a dirty ridge flow where impulses are dropping S-SW from troughing in the higher latitudes around the periphery of the upper ridge. Models are quite robust with rainfall coverage Friday as somwhat better vorticity structures rotate around the ridge to enhance the sea breeze process late tomorrow morning and afternoon. Ridge influences aloft become less pronounced as the center moves steadily westward and allows for deeper Bermuda high onshore flow into the forecast area over the weekend. GFS, and some lesser extent, the ECMWF, still maintain a decent mid level low pressure system emanating from deeper troughing over the western Atlantic that moves westward as an easterly wave.
Also included are drainages in northwest Colorado adjacent to the higher terrain previously mentioned. Little change in the upper pattern was noted on the 00z h5 hand Analysis chart across the lower 48. High pressure over the Southern plains continues to help draw monsoon moisture northward Across the 4 corners region.
317 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 A strong upper level ridge centered over the southern plains will continue to expand northeast into the the western Great Lakes and Ohio Valley causing hot and humid conditions through this upcoming weekend.
Again being at the edge of a strong heat ridge with high CAPE/PWAT air is a precarious place to be and one of lower confidence for thunderstorm specifics. While outflow has cooled northeast Illinois, already quick recovery of the low-level air mass is occurring with almost 90 degrees already observed again in Lake County, Illinois as of 330 pm. Late tonight into Friday, a cold front will gradually move down the lake with showers and thunderstorms expected along the front.
Dew points were in the 70s across the Midwest with pockets of dew points in the low 80s. IF no thunderstorms occur Thursday night THEN very hot and humid conditions will be seen Friday with high temperatures potentially warmer than forecast. IF thunderstorms occur Thursday night into Friday THEN clouds and convection may persist keeping temperatures much cooler than forecast.
/issued 1040 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016/ Strong upper-level ridge across the region to maintain hot conditions areawide with most locations forecast to experience high temperatures in the upper 90s. /issued 340 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016/ The upper level high pressure system remain entrenched across the Central Plains. Southern Plains and portions of the lower Mississippi Valley early this morning. Sea-breeze convection slow to get going across Southern LA due to the proximity of the UL ridge, but the day has just begun and it will likely increase in coverage later this morning.
An upper level low off the Oregon coast now will re-connect with the jet stream and move east overnight. By tomorrow afternoon it will become a trough with associated cold front over the Northern Rockies. In southwest Montana it will remain warm, dry, and windy ahead of the cold front. The warning extends to midnight to capture the impacts of the cold front passage and associated wind shift. Models seem to be struggling with a layer of dry air at the lower elevations which may cause any rain to evaporate.
The upper ridge remains in place and heat indices over much of the warning area are indeed above 110 and other places as of 3 PM are very close. Given the low chances for precip in any given area and the low overall confidence in the precip forecast, I blended slight chance pops over the areas of concern mainly after 06z through the end of the tonight period. Forecast Confidence = Low to Moderate Expansive upper ridge will remain entrenched over the much of the central CONUS on Friday. perhaps even a degree or two warmer in the south. Cooler easterly flow north of the boundary. combined with a higher potential for thicker cloud cover will likely result in temperatures trending a few degrees cooler than today.
The area will remain between strong high pressure ridge to the west and long wave trough axis offshore of the U. Mid level short wave troughs rotating southward on the west side of the upper trough will enhance diurnal convection during the afternoon and evenings. Heat index values will near 105 deg each afternoon inland before convective outflows cool the lower levels.
216 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016 Hot and humid conditions continue across the area and are expected to continue through the weekend as an upper level ridge of high pressure remains centered over the central U.
Meanwhile, storms are redeveloping over western Wisconsin and central Minnesota ahead of a weak cold front. The cold front will move south across central and northeast Wisconsin during the evening hours, and clear east-central WI overnight. The weak cold front will settle over southern Wisconsin during the morning hours.
310 PM EDT Thu Jul 21 2016 High pressure over the area will drift offshore this afternoon.
337 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016 High pressure aloft continues to remain the dominant weather feature across the lower 48 this morning. North of the high, low amplitude flow extended from the Pacific northwest into southern Canada and east toward New England and the Canadian Maritimes. West southwest of the low, a weak cool front extended along the Nebr/SD border into northeastern Wyoming. Temperatures north of the front were cooler today with readings in the lower 90s over western South Dakota. Upper level ridge of high pressure continues to slowly retrograde west across the southern plains. A subtropical plume of mid and upper level moisture continues to move northward through the desert southwest on the western periphery of the ridge.
Synopsis: An elongated upper level ridge of high pressure will stretch across the southern half of the United States through much of the period.
The higher dewpoints have contributed to low convective inhibition around and north of the frontal boundary.
There still remains some uncertainty with chances of precipitation overnight, and especially Friday afternoon as the aforementioned front will washout in northern Iowa Friday morning, before returning northward Friday night as a warm front. As for the heat warning continuing in far southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities; due to the lack of cooler air aloft behind the weak front today, there is still a good likelihood of heat indices rising above 100 degrees Friday afternoon, especially along the Iowa border, northwest into west central Minnesota. This is based on dew points returning into the low to mid 70s, with high temperatures similar to this afternoon in the upper 80s to mid 90s. It appears the front will begin to return north as a warm front late friday night across the dakotas. Timing of upper trough has slowed a bit.
The southern high plains will remain under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge (this morning centered over southwestern Oklahoma). The forecast hinges upon forecast wobbles of this high and whether the high will move enough north or weaken to allow for an increase in subtropical easterlies and therefore a moderation in temperatures.
Temperatures tonight will remain muggy, with lows in the low to mid 70s.
334 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016 Main weather influence for the area continues to be an expansive 597 dam ridge at 500 hPa centered over the Central Plains. As the ridge meanders westward, impulses rotating around the eastern periphery of the ridge will result in a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms.
629 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 High pressure along the east coast will drift south through Friday. This will allow a weak cold front to sag southward across the central Great Lakes Friday night.