Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Continued mountain top stability will aid in strong winds over the higher terrain and downsloping along the foothills and portions of eastern plains through the evening hours. Mountain wave amplification so far has been mostly confined to the higher portions of the Front Range as seen by radar and surface observations, likely indicative of the stability profile. Winds are expected to decrease rather quickly across the plains this evening as gradient weakens, and then a backdoor cold front pushes across the plains.
A cloudy day in store today with increasing warm air advection pattern with developing low pressure near the CO/KS border. A cold front expected to push se into nw IL by 18Z/1 pm Thu and then progress se over CWA during Thu afternoon/evening, likely producing a period of showers.
High pressure will shift northeast of the waters today. Northeast winds will increase some by the end of the week and into the weekend as an inverted trough develops near the Bahamas.
High pressure will continue to ridge into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico through the rest of the week, with generally east to northeast winds continuing to run no more than 15 knots. An inverted trough approaching Florida from the east this weekend will turn winds to a more northerly direction, but winds and seas should remain below headline criteria.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 54 72 60 / 20 30 30 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 52 71 57 / 0 30 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 65 52 70 58 / 10 30 30 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 47 71 52 / 10 30 20 10.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms can be expected today associated with a weak area of low pressure advancing east across the region. Isolated rain chances to continue through the rest of the week before ending over the weekend as ridging aloft becomes established.
As a result, we are still confident that this high wind event should pan out today. With all of that said, it appears like the High Wind Warning looks be on track today, and did not make too many changes to current forecast. This is in response to an upper level trof digging across the Pacific northwest.
Warm front movg north of I-20 with rapid warming and dewpoints rising to lower to mid 60s south of front. Temperatures to remain fairly uniform with highs in the lowers 80s and lows in the mid 60s through the weekend.
626 AM CDT Wed Nov 1 2017 Warmer temperatures are expected through the forecast period as the upper jet lifts northward, thus even when a few cold frontal passages occur, the colder air behind them will not be nearly as potent as fronts over the last week. Temperatures today will reach the 50s to near 60 degrees as returning moisture/southerly flow and rising temperatures aloft battle extensive afternoon cloud cover; then, mixing along and just behind a cold front Thursday afternoon will allow temperatures to warm into the 60s, possibly even the 70s in southeastern portions of the CWA where fropa will occur after the warmest portion of the day.
The increasing pressure/height gradient at the surface and aloft will pave the way for gusty downsloping winds and the much warmer conditions.
High temperatures this afternoon will climb to a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday with highs in the mid to upper 70s, right around normal for this time of year.
A warm front is forecast to cross Indiana overnight.
01/12Z TAF CYCLE Widespread MVFR/IFR conds wl prevail much of today as the warm front lifts NWD acrs the FA. Today Through Thursday Night Warm front was situated just to the SE of AR early this mrng. The aforementioned warm front wl sloly work NWD acrs the FA today, making the temp fcst quite challenging.
NW flow becomes more zonal by this evening as broad upper trough will extend from BC Coast to the Great Lakes.
Even with the clouds, temperatures should be much warmer than yesterday. As it does, there will be a cold front that moves through the area. Even with the cold front, temperatures will be warmer tonight. The last 2 runs of global models are in good agreement that the broad trof over the CONUS at dawn Thu will evolves into a Wrn trof thru Mon. This weekend the trof will split with fairly good agreement on the Nrn piece heading E across Canada. The cold front that moves thru late tonight into Thu AM will briefly lift back into the CWA as a warm front Sat. The next cold front will then move thru late Sat night into Sun AM. but other than that temps will be cooler than normal thru Tue.
A few light returns across the area this morning but generally dry conditions with a weak wave rounding the base of a broad central CONUS trough. Best mid level forcing is mainly to the north and east as the upper trough moves across North Dakota. A inverted ridge moves down out of Canada for Thursday into Thursday night, so temperatures are back below average.
421 AM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018 Strong high pressure will drift east across Quebec through Monday, with a ridge extending down into the Great Lakes providing more dry weather. Another chilly day expected today before warmer air arrives during the first half of the work week.
/issued 424 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018/ (Tonight and Sunday) A weak cold front this afternoon extended from near Sterling City to just north of San Angelo to just south of Brady. A broad upper ridge over Texas will gradually shift east into the lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday. Southwest flow aloft will develop over our area, as a strong upper trough moves east across much of the western CONUS. The aforementioned front is expected to lift back to the north as a warm front toward the I-20 corridor overnight. The warm front will move north of our area on Sunday morning.
An early spring cold front will be pushing southward through southern Nevada on Sunday afternoon and evening.
340 AM CDT Sun Mar 25 2018 Temperatures are currently in the upper 30s to the lower 40s early this morning, as a cooler air mass has settled into the region. Southerly winds will help pull increased moisture north ahead of the low. Lift will develop ahead of the low triggering scattered thunderstorm development across eastern Kansas late this evening which will then track east across the area overnight into Monday. An upper level trough will slowly spread east out of the southwestern U.
630 AM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018 Canadian high pressure north of the Great Lakes will slowly move east and dominate the weather through Monday. Low pressure will develop over Colorado tonight and then move northeast across the Plains on Monday and Monday night.
/issued 309 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): Warm and dry weather will continue through Sunday, with overhead ridging providing stable conditions and strong high pressure over the Gulf coupled with a Plains low pressure system supporting moderate to strong south southeast winds. High temps Sunday will range from the mid 80s east to the mid 90s west, slightly warmer than normal by 5 to 10 degrees. As the H5 ridge shifts east and a more southwesterly mid level flow develops over the Sierra Madre Oriental range of Mexico Sunday night, unorganized isolated showers or thunderstorms may develop well to the west, but should keep their distance from deep South Texas and the RGV.
On Sunday, an approaching open wave trough will continue to slide southeastward. The winners will likely be the eastern Uintah mountains where a couple of inches of snow are possible at the higher elevations. On Monday, energy will drop down the backside of the trough that brought the clouds and rainshowers to our area. As this occurs, the trough will slowly move across our area but even though said trough will be the focus of some lift, upper level support will be lacking so we'll see a few showers across the area but nothing too significant. The trough will cause winds to switch to northerly causing temperatures to drop several degrees but only on the order of 3 to 7 degrees.
358 AM MDT Sun Mar 25 2018 SW flow aloft will continue across the area as an upper level trough eventually moves into the Great Basin by tonight. Overall as the upper level trough moves into the Great Basin by tonight will see some minor mid lvl ascent along with an increase in upper level divergence. Over the higher terrain cross- sections show rather limited moisture so will keep pops mainly confined to the nrn mtns. As far as highs over nern CO, there will be a stalled fnt over the far nern corner so readings may only reach the lower 50s their while closer to the foothills readings reach the mid to upper 60s.
Main show will commence tonight as the main upper trough pushes into the region and supports increasing LSA. Initial round of convection will develop off the high terrain of eastern WY this afternoon, propagating NE and becoming elevated. Snow will begin to taper off late Monday morning into the early afternoon, with temps expected above freezing most places. For the remainder of the week, western CONUS ridging will prevail Tues and beyond, with the Northern Plains under active NW flow at the edge of the central NOAM trough. This will support cooler than average temps with periodic chances for rain/snow showers at times. This would support a much more pronounced central CONUS trough, with the potential for much below normal temps toward the end of the week. Some freezing rain/drizzle possible over south central South Dakota.
401 AM CDT Sun Mar 25 2018 Satellite imagery this morning shows a ridge in place across the center of the Nation, with a large synoptic level trough to our west digging into the mountainous west with the help of a strong jet streak that is rounding the troughs base in northern Mexico. Expectation are that the jet streak will slow the progress of the main trough as we transit into the work week, which ensemble and operational models agree with, setting the stage for a persistent southwest flow across the Lower Missouri River Valley late Sunday night through at least the middle of the coming work week.
This should allow dry conditions to persist through Monday evening before precipitation spreads east from low pressure over the Plains. Models continue to have noticeable timing difference with the onset of precipitation as the atmosphere over the area will be rather dry and upper level heights will continue to rise ahead of the deepen trough over the upper Midwest. Models are showing the possibility that locations in eastern portions of the forecast area could have precipitation begin as freezing rain, but this has much to do with timing issues and resolving the ability of the warm air advection to push out the colder air. The period of freezing rain potential looks to be limited with highs expected to climb into the upper 40s and lower 50s in most locations.
Temperature-wise, went on the cooler side in the 50s Sunday given mostly cloudy skies and low-level east/southeast flow. Isentropic ascent and moisture transport are expected to increase Sunday evening/night, as another subtle yet slightly more substantial upper wave approaches from the base of the western CONUS longwave trough.
257 AM PDT Sun Mar 25 2018 Onshore flow will continue cooler weather and more inland clouds today with gusty southwest to west winds in the mountains and deserts.
In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Southeast and a trough over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a low is over Central TN with a cold front extending through Northern MS into LA and TX. Isolated thunder is possible with dew points in the low 60s.
113 AM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018 Aviation The weather will stay dry and cool, but a bit warmer by Monday.
Snow and rain will end this evening as low pressure exits the area.
Radar trends through 1040 UTC coupled with 09 UTC RAP soundings favor a band of freezing rain to propagate into these areas from northern South Dakota. Snowfall amounts are highly uncertain given the likely narrow nature of the band of the highest snowfall rates, and surface temperatures in the lower 30s.
620 AM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018 High pressure to end the weekend and start the next work week, with a warming trend.
Northeast winds will gradually become south tonight when a broad warm frontal passes. /issued 328 AM CDT Sun Mar 25 2018/ Southwest flow aloft on the eastern side of a large-scale upper trough over the western U. The weak front that passed Oklahoma yesterday will pass again to the north as a warm front later today and open up the area to a humid airmass.
413 AM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018 A back door front has shifted into the southern portion of the area early this morning bringing rain, with wedge conditions and associated low cloudiness and cooler temps lingering through the day.
1121 PM MDT Sat Mar 24 2018 Water vapor shows large scale trof over the western CONUS with SW flow aloft into the Northern Plains. At the surface, broad SE flow covers the region with strong high north of the Great Lakes and lee trof east of the Rockies. Thermal profiles towards central SD suggest more of a freezing rain/drizzle threat with some light icing possible late tonight and early Sunday before short wave ejects further east. Snow amounts expected to be less south/east of the Black Hills, but more light icing possible due to freezing rain across south central SD late Sunday night/early Monday. Some freezing rain/drizzle possible over south central South Dakota.
High pressure will be over the Bahamas extending westward across South Florida today, as a stationary front remains over the Southeastern United States into the Western Atlantic Waters. Low pressure will also develop today just off the Carolina coast along the stationary front and move slowly northeast towards the Mid Atlantic Waters. The low will then strengthen early this week over the Mid Atlantic waters allowing for the stationary front to the north to move southeast and across South Florida Monday night as a back door cold front.
Today will see mostly sunny skies and highs ranging from the mid 30s over the east half to the low to mid 40s west half. Tonight will be warmer than early this morning due to increased cloud cover, stronger southerly flow, and a warmer and more moist airmass.
The building upper ridge will shift ewd to the lower Great Lakes and Quebec, Canada through tonight.
606 AM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018 Marine High pressure will result in plenty of sunshine today, although it will continue to feel cool with highs in the lower 40s and a brisk east wind. The high will move off to the east tonight and Monday will bring a southerly flow of air to the region.
The northeast 2/3 or so of the area will have east to southeast winds which will keep much cooler air and clouds over the area compared to the other side of the stationary front where mostly sunny to sunny conditions expected along with a south to southwest wind. Currently have high temperatures ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s on the cooler side of the front with 60 to around 70 on the other side. Monday afternoon the dry line over the southern part of the forecast area will rotate east and merge with the cold front that will move south. Behind the front some rain may develop due to lift from the upper level short wave trough over the west. Winds may increase during the night as stronger winds from the low level jet mix down to the ground.
357 AM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018 High pressure will allow for dry conditions across the region today. High pressure and dry conditions will be in place for the near term. At the surface, a warm front will lift across the region on Monday night.
Temperatures will rise into the lower 80s over inland areas. A similar albeit slight warmer day is expected for Monday.
Showers associated with an upper level trough have already moved north out of Nevada and are affecting areas of the Snake Plain, Mountain Home towards the Magic Valley at about 3 AM MDT. Snow levels will be near valley floors and temperatures will be in the low 30s; this will be cold enough for snow. With a cold pool aloft and an unstable environment associated with the upper level trough axis, a slight chance for afternoon thunderstorms cannot be ruled out and remain in the forecast. Temperatures will be about 10 degrees below normal today, with a warming trend expected Monday in the trough's wake. As the upper level trough slides farther east tonight, a moist northwest flow will anchor in for the near-term, for light mountain showers.
High pressure will continue to sink to the South Overnight as a front approaches from the North. Highs will be held down somewhat by clouds and rain over SE GA Today, with readings in the lower to middle 70s. A coastal trough will set up providing breezy northeasterly flow, much cooler temperatures, and scattered coastal showers. The coastal trough will weaken as it pushes further offshore, with low level flow becoming easterly.
Gusts will diminish with nocturnal stabilization before emerging out the SE Monday morning as high pressure shifts from Ontario to the East Coast. * None Dry and cool east to northeast flow will persist today from high pressure centered over Quebec. This cold low level pattern as of late begins to break down tonight into Monday as this sprawling high pressure over Quebec shifts into the New England region and increasing southeast flow sets up within strengthening pressure gradient between this high and low pressure taking shape over the central plains region.
Upper level ridging will move over the forecast area tonight and depart on Sunday.
Strong high pressure over Quebec will keep the dry easterly flow continuing. This wet snow has been compacting even during the night, as temperatures remain above freezing. However, the highs in this area have been kept well below MOS guidance today, to reflect the solar energy going toward melting. Further south, highs in the lower to mid 40s are more likely, perhaps approaching 50 in the far southeast.
Snowfall amounts are highly uncertain given the likely narrow nature of the band of the highest snowfall rates, and surface temperatures in the lower 30s.
This was keeping temperatures in the lower 30s at most locations. Today: Sprawling high pressure centered in Quebec was ridging into the western Great Lakes and into IL. Highs will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s in the snow pack area, to the lower to mid 40s elsewhere. Tonight: Clear to partly cloudy skies this evening will give way to gradually increasing warm air advection mid/high clouds from the west, as low pressure moves from CO to southwest KS by sunrise. The models have slowed the arrival of pcpn due to the strong high pressure to the northeast, so will have a dry forecast. Lows will range from the mid 20s to the lower 30s.
418 AM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018 Canadian high pressure north of the Great Lakes will slowly move east and dominate the weather through Monday. Low pressure will develop over Colorado tonight and then move northeast across the Plains on Monday and Monday night.
427 AM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018 Strong high pressure will drift east across Quebec through Monday, with a ridge extending down into the Great Lakes providing more dry weather. Another chilly day expected today before warmer air arrives during the first half of the work week.
254 AM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018 High pressure to end the weekend and start the next work week, with a warming trend.
638 AM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018 High pressure will allow for dry conditions across the region today. High pressure and dry conditions will be in place for the near term. At the surface, a warm front will lift across the region on Monday night.
Overnight, models hint at some clouds and perhaps few flurries over the higher peaks as weak energy moves across, and will keep some very minor pops along the Continental Divide through the night.
623 AM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018 An upper level trough over the northeast conus will lift out to the east on Monday, as ridging builds in from the Great Lakes. A slow moving cold front will likely push through the region during the second half of the week. Mixing down model 850mb temps of around -7C translate to expected highs from the upper 30s over the higher terrain of the Alleghenies, to the low and mid 40s in the valleys. Ridging at the surface and aloft will build over the area tonight and Monday, ensuring fair weather and light winds.
An upper low remains along the Oregon coast and will move inland today with onshore mid level flow taking hold in the afternoon. Aside from some lingering showers mainly across the coast and Cascades, rain and snow will end early tonight with high pressure building in.
415 AM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018 A backdoor cold front pushes to the south today.
331 AM CDT Sun Mar 25 2018 Short term conditions continue to be influenced by high pressure to our east which is allowing some return flow out ahead of a weak front that is nearing the area from the north. The front does not look like it will make it into our area, staying north of us and then retreating as a warm front.
The northeast 2/3 or so of the area will have east to southeast winds which will keep much cooler air and clouds over the area compared to the other side of the stationary front where mostly sunny to sunny conditions expected along with a south to southwest wind. Currently have high temperatures ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s on the cooler side of the front with 60 to around 70 on the other side.
240 AM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018 Dry and cool east to northeast flow will persist today from high pressure centered over Quebec. This cold low level pattern as of late begins to break down tonight into Monday as this sprawling high pressure over Quebec shifts into the New England region and increasing southeast flow sets up within strengthening pressure gradient between this high and low pressure taking shape over the central plains region.
646 AM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018 A back door front has shifted into the southern portion of the area early this morning bringing rain, with wedge conditions and associated low cloudiness and cooler temps lingering through the day.
328 AM CDT Sun Mar 25 2018 Southwest flow aloft on the eastern side of a large-scale upper trough over the western U. The weak front that passed Oklahoma yesterday will pass again to the north as a warm front later today and open up the area to a humid airmass.
If anything falls in northeast NE this morning, it could fall as freezing drizzle as temps will be below freezing in that area, but quickly warm above freezing by mid morning, thus no real concern for any icing. For tonight, the trough currently across the western moves into the Rockies, which begins to push an area of low pressure along the front range onto the western High Plains. Showers should become widespread 6-12z Monday as height falls overspread the region, combined with strong isentropic lift over a warm frontal boundary to our south.
A much larger scale trough was forming along the West Coast, and the increased southwest flow aloft ahead of this trough was allowing high level Pacific moisture to push into the Desert Southwest and Rockies. Some of this high cloud was starting to push into eastern Colorado this afternoon. In the lower levels, the edge of stratus cloud was quasi- stationary from near LBF to RSL to near ICT. The shallow cool airmass across Nebraska will expand southwest tonight thanks to nocturnal pressure rises, but at the same time, a leeside trough will start to strengthen over eastern Colorado.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a ridge over the middle of the country with it's axis through Central Texas. At the surface, high pressure was centered to our east and winds across our CWA were from the south to southwest. The upper ridge will move slowly to the east as a trough digs down along the west coast during this period.
and Monday Very dry air feeding out of a Hudson Bay high pressure system will cover the region through Monday morning, and hold off any precipitation. Highs will be a little milder, ranging from the mid to upper 30s near Lake Michigan to the lower to middle 40s over central WI.
Upper low continues to move inland spreading clouds and isolated showers over the forecast area early this evening. The low moves slowly east across southern Oregon and northern California overnight and into Idaho Sunday. Upper ridge then builds offshore with the region in a northwest flow aloft.