Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
936 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2020 Weak cold front near Lake Erie will slowly dissipate as it sags southward this evening. High pressure will expand across the region tonight then shift to New England on Monday. Low pressure will track out of the southern Plains on Monday, lifting a warm front north across the area Monday night.
922 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2020 A weak cold front moves through tonight, followed by high pressure building across New England Monday into Monday night.
Nearly zonal flow in the mid to upper levels will continue through the short term period as we are situated between a ridge to our south and and a weak trough to our north. We will be a bit warmer tonight as a result of the onshore flow with lows about 10-15 degrees above normal.
Tomorrow morning a cold front will sweep through the region leading to a northerly wind shift eventually becoming more northeasterly tomorrow evening. The development of lee-side troughing to our northwest and the associated downslope winds will result in dry weather with breezy afternoon winds. Tomorrow, the upper level flow becomes more zonal ahead of a surface cold front expected to move through the CWA during the afternoon. The initial impact of the cold front will be a shift in wind direction to the north and an increase in wind speeds to 15 to 20 mph.
Snow will be tapering off this evening as low pressure moves east of the state.
Latest water vapor imagery shows a broad upper trough encompassing much of the CONUS, with an upper ridge building along the West Coast and a ridge over the Atlantic. Drier air in the lower to mid levels was helping to erode earlier cloud cover, with breaks in the clouds allowing for temps to warm into the mid to upper 50s. As the axis of the trough moves eastward tonight, flow aloft will become more zonal, with clouds increasing once again this evening. Given the persistent cloud cover overnight, lows will be mild once again, with temps only falling into the lower 40s. Closer to home, southerly flow over the TN Valley will filter in warmer and more moist air. Temps will warm into the lower 60s by the afternoon.
/issued 243 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2020/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): Broad high pressure remains in play at the surface with a rather flat mid level pattern over the area. Overnight temps will be in the lower to mid 60s, with temperatures warming into the 80s on Monday afternoon with a mix of clouds and sun, and with moderate to breezy south southeast winds.
Trough of low pressure is expected to work out of the intermountain west this evening and work into the plains overnight. Forecast soundings are suggesting a dry wedge from just above the surface through 700 mb, with the warm nose well above freezing. Surface temperatures at the time appear to be in the low to mid 30s, favoring either rain or snow. Could be an area where conditions set up just right for a brief period of freezing drizzle, but precise location is a bit uncertain. As cooler air collapses southward tomorrow afternoon, mid levels of the atmosphere dry out fairly quickly.
Mild low temperatures trending warmer than last night due to clouds with lows in the low/mid 50s inland to upper 50s to near 60 along the Atlantic coast and St.
For this reason have added patchy fog across most of the region tonight, with a few areas of locally dense fog possible along the higher terrain due to the low ceilings. As one might expect, these clouds will help hold temperatures in the lower 40s (once they develop) for the remainder of the night. Closer to home, southerly flow over the TN Valley will filter in warmer and more moist air. Temps will warm into the lower 60s by the afternoon.
The SFC front is expected to sink into the northern Gulf TUE evening bringing cooler temperatures WED and THU, but considerable post-frontal MSTR and periods of lift will continue until deeper northerly flow arrives THU night. A reprieve from the wet weather appears on tap for FRI and SAT with gradually moderating temperatures as a ridge builds over the Southern Plains. Still some track/timing differences to contend with for an upper low expected to traverse the Plains SUN and MON.
As the trough deepens to the east of California tomorrow, surface pressure gradients will tighten.
719 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2020 Latest RAP model has a subtle short wave trough. During Mon zonal aloft begin to return to the region while Atlantic high pressure ridges westward. with the short wave trough/surface reflection sweeps across the area over night with considerable cloudiness and patchy fog. High pressure building across the waters will result in east and southeast winds. A front moves through the eastern Gulf toward the end of the week with high pressure behind it.
859 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2020 High pressure will build over the region through Monday evening.
For the interior valleys, the moist push will result in widespread low clouds and fog tonight as NE winds develop over the ridges. Northerly winds and steep seas will increase tonight through Monday as high pressure builds offshore and a trough develops near the coast.
928 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2020 High pressure will affect the region tonight bringing dry weather.
422 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2020 Surface analysis showed a low over north central Gulf with frontal boundary from northeast gulf to the low to northwest gulf. Elevated mean relative humidity values will increase from the southwest as the warm front moves north across the forecast area on Monday.
The Evening Update: A few breaks in the high clouds as they stream over our CWA as a dry front moves through Norcal. Behind the front, look for winds to pick up out of the N-E Sun nite and into Tue morning as high pressure builds across the Pac NW and into NV/Great Basin during this time. As the trough deepens to the east of California tomorrow, surface pressure gradients will tighten.
856 PM MST Sun Feb 16 2020 03z surface analysis had broad low across east central WY into south central SD with weak cold front behind it into western WY. The speed of the front will dictate how high temps rise in the southern half, with cooler highs certainly possible.
255 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2020 Mainly dry weather is expected today under building high pressure.
210 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2020 Weak high pressure will remain over the region today, with mostly cloudy skies and seasonal temps.
Skies expected to stay mostly cloudy with lows in the low to mid 60s.
955 PM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021 High pressure centered over the region this morning will slide offshore through Tuesday.
A cold front will continue to sweep across the area this evening.
The area of low pressure has slowly moved eastward today and is now located over New Mexico. An upper-level trough will quickly approach the region by Tuesday, digging far enough south to keep precipitation in the forecast.
The mid-level ridge continues to dominate and actually amplifies a bit in response to the approaching closed low opening up and ejecting northeast over the next 48 hours.
226 AM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 High pressure will slide farther off the coast tonight. A cold front will cross the region late Tuesday into Tuesday night, bringing a chance for showers and isolated storms.
Fog expected to dissipate between 13z and 14z this morning with high pressure resulting in a mostly clear sky and light westerly winds through the afternoon. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 61 85 63 86 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 59 85 61 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 82 59 84 61 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 56 83 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 0.
Amplified ridge axis sets up east of I-29 for Tuesday with some tightening of the SPG and thus some southerly gusts to around 25 mph during the afternoon. This is all as a front impinges in from the west with several waves ridging up through the western troughing.
229 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021 Quiet weather will persist through the short term as high pressure centered over the Great Lakes slowly moves east. The main culprit is an amplifying ridge that'll stretch from the Central Plains northward into central Canada.
1020 PM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021 Plenty of sunshine is observed across the region today as high pressure builds into the region from the west. However as the area of high pressure slides further east into the Great Lakes Region, winds increase from the southeast between 500 to 1000 ft AGL to around 20 knots as depicted by model guidance soundings. The upper level flow is currently progressing toward the omega blocking pattern that has been advertised to develop by the middle of the week. The wild card in how this breaks down continues to be the remnants of the cut off upper level low currently over the Desert Southwest and how progressive the incoming system off the Pacific will be.
349 AM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show mid-level ridging over the Plains extending n into central Canada with trofs over western and eastern N America. Temps are locally warmer into the low/mid 40s along the Great Lakes. Under weak WAA and light southerly flow, 850mb temps of 10-14C should yield max temps generally ranging from the upper 60s e half to the low/mid 70s F w. High pres ridging will be off to the e of the area tonight, but still close enough for another quiet night across the s central and eastern fcst area. The main culprit is an amplifying ridge and height anomaly that'll stretch from the Central Plains upwards toward James Bay.
Above normal/near-record high temperatures are expected today and again tomorrow as an upper- level ridge axis moves overhead. This could push highs a bit warmer which would push KOFK above the weakest record (90 in 2011 and 1922). Moist southerly flow continues into Wednesday night ahead of an approaching cold front. This move out ahead of a secondary mid- level trough sliding out of Wyoming.
116 AM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 A warmup is expected as high pressure shifts off the coast.
328 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021 Upper level ridging will remain in control of the regions weather today. The upper trough will remain across the southern plains through the end of the week and into the weekend.
235 AM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 Synopsis/Discussion/Aviation/Marine - Blocking pattern with fair weather this week Upper low digs in across the Northeast CONUS next few days with narrow upper ridge axis building just west of the central Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure center over eastern Canada feeds dry easterly flow into Lower Michigan.
1239 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021 No significant changes to the previous forecast this afternoon as things still appear be on track with another unseasonably warm day Tuesday ahead of an upper level low expected to reach the area Tuesday night.
This is because high pressure will remain situated across the southeastern U. The gradient from this high will also maintain gentle to moderate breezes, which will act to concentrate what little moisture we have in the boundary layer. However given the dry air aloft and subsidence from said high pressure, vertical development will be greatly limited.
Expansive surface ridging emanating from the coastal Carolinas will continue to advect a drier airmass over the region. Not much to speak of in terms of changes to the weather pattern for Wednesday; surface ridging will continue to suppress shower and thunderstorm chances.
The upper ridge axis crosses the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight. Low temperatures will be a tad warmer, generally ranging from mid 40s to mid 50s. Wednesday still looks to be the overall warmest day as 500mb heights jump above 5840m before the anomalous upper ridge begins to slowly depart.
Latest water vapor analysis was showing an upper ridge over the Plains with a low over the centered near the Four Corners. Latest runs of the GFS and NAM continue to show that the upper ridge will slowly build over the Midwest through tomorrow which will keep us dry through tomorrow morning. Highs on Wednesday will be a one or two degree cooler as surface winds turn out of the southeast.
323 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021 Closed upper low over northern New Mexico early this morning will continue northeast into eastern Colorado where it is expected to weaken into an open trough later today. The GFS and ECMWF are nearly identical with having an upper trough with more of a positive to slightly negative tilt while also having a slightly closed low. This would place West Texas under decent upper level diffluence as a cold front pushes southward.
(Today and tonight) Another hot late September day is anticipated with highs in the low to mid 90s deg F (10 to 15 deg F above average).
At the same time, the flow aloft will become more difluent and a weak upper disturbance ejecting in advance of a strong upper trough over the Southern Rockies will move over the region.
Cold front is currently over Mid MI slowly drifting southward and will continue to do so through this evening. A upper level ridge will be advancing eastward across the Plains while narrowing and amplifying into the Plains of Canada. Meanwhile a closed upper low over eastern Canada will be dropping southward over the mid atlantic coast blocking the ridge and stalling it over the western Great Lakes through the mid week period. We should be locked in with northwesterly confluent flow aloft with expansive high pressure building south from Canada. Temps will be near seasonal averages with highs in the low to mid 70s and lows bouncing around on either side of 50.
1035 PM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021 An upper-level ridge is currently building over the central U. as a closed low spins over the Desert Southwest. The positioning of the ridge has the Middle Mississippi Valley under northwest flow aloft. With 850 mb temperatures around 20 degrees C this afternoon and gusty winds out of the southwest, high temperatures in the low 90s are possible for many locations. Tomorrow, the cut-off low over the Southwest will begin to become absorbed into a trough pivoting over the western U. and impede upon the ridge centered over the Great Plains. This will cause the ridge to shift eastward and mid-level temperatures to cool a couple degrees to around 18 degrees C.
215 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021 The main challenge this forecast will be rain/thunder chances in the coming days as we finally get a shift from the persistent hot/dry pattern to a relatively cooler/wetter regime.
320 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021 Early this morning a cut off low was located over the southern Rockies while a trough was moving into the Pacific Northwest. A ridge was located across the central Plains while a trough was moving across the Great Lakes region at 0730Z. An axis of moisture extended southeastward from the closed low across southwest Kansas into southern Arkansas. The advance of the western trough will eject the Rockies low east and north into the Plains tonight as it is absorbed into the mean flow and weakens.
214 AM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 A cold front will cross from north to south across the Mid Atlantic region today into tonight.
The upper level synoptic features have not moved appreciably over the last 24 hours, with one longwave trough over the east CONUS and another moving onto the west coast, a ridge over the northern/central plains, and a nearly stationary embedded cut-off low over northwest AZ. As the western trough moves eastward during the day Tuesday, the cut-off low will finally eject into the central plains which will deepen a lee trough in eastern CO. Strong Cold Front Expected Wednesday Night.
High temperatures today will still be cooler than yesterday, though still a few degrees above normal for this time of year. Afternoon highs will be in the lower 70s across south central Lower Michigan to around 80 degrees into west central Indiana. Slightly cooler as a shallow, weak cold front currently bisecting across southern portion of CWA, continues to slip southward into the Ohio Valley by this evening. Close to normal temperatures through the workweek as ridge shifts eastward to the Lower Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic. Persistent subsidence inversion and nocturnal surface based inversion to limit mixing heights, placing a damper on high temperatures, especially northeast CWA where depth of cooler, post frontal airmass is greatest. Cold front has cleared both terminals and winds will steadily veer to NE direction by late morning.
Discussion: WV imagery this morning shows a highly amplified ridge across the lower Mississippi Valley NNW through the Great Plains. This is resulting in a few high clouds across the forecast area, but otherwise, mostly clear conditions are present with surface ridging in control of our weather.
A more substantial upper trough is noted off the coast of British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, weak low pressure is situated over western KS with high pressure centered over the southeast CONUS, resulting in a bit stronger of a pressure gradient in east central KS where southwest winds have been a little breezier. Increasing cloud cover as the upper low approaches could keep temperatures down a few degrees in the afternoon, but it still looks like a seasonably warm day with highs around 90 degrees. By late Tuesday night into early Wednesday, the upper low is progged to phase into the advancing trough over the Rockies, and some WAA ahead of the main upper forcing could allow for isolated to scattered showers/storms.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): 500 mb high pressure centered over the western Gulf of Mexico will be suppressed slightly south as 500 mb low pressure maintains itself over the Four Corners area.
Weak ridging will remain through the short term. In the upper levels, ridging currently over C Conus should shift some EWD through Wednesday to be situated from the Upper MS River Valley and SSEWD into AL.
416 AM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 A weak cold front across the Great Lakes will drop south through the Ohio Valley through this evening. High pressure will build in behind the front Wednesday and persist through the remainder of the week. Meanwhile, a weak cold front will push south into the region late this morning and reach the Ohio River by late afternoon. Behind the front, clouds will decrease and high pressure will settle into the Ohio Valley. Clear skies and relatively low humidities will allow the low temperature tonight to drop into the 50s, and also provide high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s on Wednesday.
1015mb high pressure is centered over central upper MI, will drift into lower MI thru tonight. This is just in advance of a sharpening 500mb ridge axis edging from the northern plains to upper MS Valley. High impact weather potential: None expected Synopsis/Pattern: Anomalously strong ridging will extend from the Gulf of Mexico up through Hudson Bay as an omega block slowly moves east across the CONUS through midweek. This ridging is quite strong (+2 to 3 St.
Tonight and Tuesday Fairly quiet weather is in store for the short term period as high pressure dominates the region behind the weak front that crossed the region this morning. Light easterly flow near the lakeshore will keep temperatures cooler, as well as pushing some lake clouds into the region, although these clouds will gradually diminish into the evening hours. Low temperatures tonight will head back to the lower 40s to upper 30s. Tuesday will see a continuation of high pressure conditions in the area, with sunny skies and moderate temperatures. Bumped temps up a little as clear skies and light winds should allow surface temperatures to lean towards the warmer guidance.
1046 PM MDT Mon Sep 27 2021 The latest water vapor and 500-mb height analysis showed a broad ridge over region that will maintain dry and unseasonably warm weather over the forecast area through Tuesday (early evening). A large trough just off the Pacific Northwest will slowly move east Tuesday and Wednesday, and phase with an upper low currently over the four corners. Otherwise, the potential exists for some record warm temperatures on Tuesday ahead of the approaching trough.
315 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021 A skinny upper ridge will migrate eastward over the Mississippi Valley today.
The upper level synoptic features have not moved appreciably over the last 24 hours, with one longwave trough over the east CONUS and another moving onto the west coast, a ridge over the northern/central plains, and a nearly stationary embedded cut-off low over northwest AZ. As the western trough moves eastward during the day Tuesday, the cut-off low will finally eject into the central plains which will deepen a lee trough in eastern CO. Wednesday will be the last unseasonably warm day for the foreseeable future as south/southeast winds are maintained owing to a deepening lee trough in southeastern CO/northeastern NM, and afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s appear likely.
Tuesday will be similar to today's forecast with highs in the lower 90s, and slightly higher dew points in the 60s. To support these surface winds advecting in this warmer air mass, the upper level trough we've been watching models depict over the western CONUS is still projected to deepen Tuesday through Wednesday. This feature is expected to take on a squished appearance, due to another deepening trough over the East coast.
The stratus should move north later tonight, perhaps out of the Twin Ports altogether as the low level winds veer slightly. The RAP, which isn't handling this the best but at least has some flavor of the lower ceilings, does suggest the northward push of the clouds.
Scattered to broken mid to high clouds are expected for much of the period for all sites in response to an upper low slowly tracking northeast through New Mexico.
Outside of that, expect a mostly sunny and warm day with highs topping out in the low to mid 80s in most spots. Expect to find amplified pattern in place at the start of the period with an upper ridge axis extending along the length of the Mississippi River while upper-level troughing persists over the eastern and western CONUS. At the surface, expansive area of high pressure will extend over the OH Valley.
302 AM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 Scattered showers and thunderstorms should continue through part of the day with a crossing cold front. Building high pressure behind the exiting cold front should then return dry and seasonable conditions for the remainder of the week. A low level jet in place, ascent, marginal shear and elevated instability could result in a few strong storms through sunrise before the low level jet and shear weaken. An upper low is progged to persist across the NE CONUS through the period, as a ridge builds to our west from the Gulf Coast to the Upper Midwest and Canada. Model ensembles indicate the upper low remaining across the NE CONUS through much of the weekend, as the ridge to our west gradually breaks down and flattens.
The aforementioned upper rdg is fcst to move very sloly to the E in the coming days as a weakening upper low lifts out of the 4-corners region, and thru the western Plains. Meanwhile, overnight lows wl see the opposite occur, with warmer readings with incrsg sfc dewpoints as time goes on.
High pressure over northern Lake Michigan will slowly move to the east during this period, providing dry conditions to the area. Onshore winds during this period will bring cooler temperatures near Lake Michigan today and Wednesday, with warm temperatures lingering inland. Wednesday highs should be a little warmer, with lower to middle 80s inland, and 70s lakeside.
Rinse and repeat forecast from yesterday as high pressure maintains dry conditions across Central FL. Clear skies tonight as overnight lows drop into the mid to upper 60s, with low 60s for normally cooler spots.
A cold front will move through the Great Basin today ushering in breezy to locally windy conditions.
100 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021 (This evening through Tuesday) Afternoon water vapor imagery shows an upper level low spinning over eastern New Mexico. High res model guidance shows additional shower and storm development this afternoon across the Lower Trans Pecos. For tomorrow, the upper level low is forecast to move northward into Colorado before becoming absorbed into the mean 500mb flow.