Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
309 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016 Canadian high pressure over the Mid South this morning will move quickly east today. A stalled frontal boundary over central Mississippi into southern Arkansas this morning will begin to lift back north as a warm front. The warm front will lift north through the region on Tuesday with increasing humidity and moisture. Temperatures should be warmer than today behind the warm front.
The current forecast MinRH for this area bottoms out in the low 20s. Didn't adjust the high temperature forecast much from previous forecasts either, still maintaining highs near or at 100 degrees. Meanwhile the upper level low skirts the MT/international border area, allowing more of a southwest flow over SD. As with any north/south oriented cold front type event, the best bulk shear will lag behind the front, however models still show up to 20 kts of 0-6km shear across the eastern CWA by 00z.
High pressure centered over southern Illinois will move east across the Ohio valley today and east to the middle atlantic states Tuesday.
WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over FL and the Gulf Coast, leaving SW flow aloft over our area further west. Over the SW CONUS, an upper trough is forecast to develop over the next few days as a PacNW low over BC transverses srn Canada, and arrive over West Texas/SE NM by midweek. Currently, area radars show ongoing convection over SW NM, invof the low-lvl theta-e ridge axis extending up from Mexico. That said, w/the theta-e ridge nosing up into the FA over the next few days, orienting SW-NE, good chances for convection remain. For temps, w/the ridge to the east, and expected increased cloud cover and moisture, unseasonably cool wx remains on tap.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will occur today and tonight as a low pressure system moves across the Mojave Desert region this afternoon and evening. Drier conditions are expected Tuesday with shower chances generally confined to the higher terrain. A weak circulation remained over northwest Arizona this morning and an upper low was just off the central California coast. The potential for significant rainfall will be confined primarily to northwest Arizona where the higher moisture content resides. Drier and more stable northwest flow will develop over the region late tonight through Tuesday on the back side of the circulation as it becomes a progressive open trough moving across Arizona.
414 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016 Big picture across the Nation this morning shows a rather flat pattern in place at the moment with a modest ridge traversing the middle of the continent. Of interest to the forecast for later this week is the potent trough moving east across British Columbia early this morning. As this trough moves east through the Canadian Plains it will induce a bit of stormy activity as moisture returns from the Gulf start making their way back into Kansas and Missouri ahead of a frontal boundary that will develop across the Northern High Plains later today.
603 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 A cold front will cross the area this morning then move east into the Maritimes this afternoon.
The remainder of the short term period should be relatively quiet as high pressure aloft builds over the region. Expect highs Monday in the 90s, with temperatures a few degrees warmer on Tuesday with drier air.
The upper flow pattern remains quite light, but a weakly organized upper level trough is still expected to push northeast into the forecast area late this afternoon through tonight. That being said, the mountains stand the highest threat of seeing convective development during the afternoon hours where moisture arrives first. On the plains, any threat would likely hold off until very late in the afternoon or evening as the low levels are quite dry and anything developing will be high based and outflow dominated.
146 AM MDT MON AUG 22 2016 Broad upper ridge covers the central CONUS, with the next trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Upper and thermal ridge axes will cross the area today, resulting in very warm temperatures in the 90s and around 100 over central SD. Upper trough will begin moving through the northern plains on Tuesday, bringing a cold front through the region. Highs will range from the 70s across northeastern WY and the Black Hills to the lower 90s across south central SD. A strong cold front will bring fall like temps to the area once again wed- thur.
640 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 Cooler and less humid conditions will dominate through Tuesday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Stronger southerly winds today will provide for better mixing down of these warmer temps aloft.
404 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016 Upper level troughing over the desert southwest will approach the southern and central high plains by this evening.
418 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 A slow moving cold front is moving toward central to s GA today. Models in fairly good agreement with keeping the best precip chances over central Ga today with the highest pops of 40 percent near the southern CWA border. High pressure aloft builds. partially due to the lower level flow becoming ESE and a weak wave trying to move through the ridge aloft. POPS are very much a compromise for Tuesday but the area s and e of MCN will have the highest chances. BDL The GFS and ECMWF models remain in agreement that an upper level ridge will dominate the southeast U.
210 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 A cold front will cross the Mid Atlantic region through tonight. High pressure builds in from the northwest Monday and remains over the area for much of the upcoming week. Partial clearing expected wrn portions as winds shift to NW (post cold front) and drier air begins to arrive. Cold front pushes well S and E of the FA on Mon.
A few light showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two are present across the southern portion of the forecast area as the region is in an area of weak flow aloft between a stronger trough moving through the PacNW and a very weak low off the central California coast. By this afternoon, appears the focus of activity will shift back to the higher elevations where daytime heating with result in more storms along the Sierra Crest. More moderate temperatures are forecast for interior NorCal this week as a weak trough hangs back across the region and some onshore flow continues.
Upper level troughing over the desert southwest will approach the southern and central high plains by this evening.
The first legit cold front that we have had for a while has pushed through the area, and falling dewpoints behind it will make for a comfortable morning with lows in the upper 50s and 60s. High pressure drifting east across the Ohio Valley will provide light winds today and tonight, allowing lows tonight will drop into the mid 50s north and in the mountains, with lower to mid 60s in the central and southern Valley.
A strong upper level low will move east through southwest Canada today. It has already pushed a dry cold front through our area, and temperatures will be noticeably cooler today. Winds will also be stronger in the higher terrain of southeast Oregon.
321 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 High pressure will build in behind a departing cold front today, bringing cooler and drier air to the area for most of the week. Another weak cold front will approach the Western Carolinas from the northwest toward the end of the week. As of 3:15 am EDT: While AVL did see a trace of precipitation from an extremely shallow shower, radar is currently clear following the passage of a cold front earlier today. Drier boundary layer air will lead to lows a little cooler Monday morning than we have seen in recent weeks, and less humid and drier weather generally with very low chances for precipitation and temperatures several degrees cooler than yesterday and near seasonal normals.
Otherwise, sightly cooler than normal temperatures are forecast over the next few days, along with widespread night and morning low clouds. Synoptically the pattern will only slightly modify through the week with the main change being a ridge of high pressure that builds toward our region.
A weak frontal boundary along the I-20 corridor will weaken further and eventually wash out as a strong mid level ridge center becomes the most prominent weather feature during the next couple of days. Otherwise, attention will be turning to the increasing potential for dangerous heat stress levels as the low level thermal ridge begins to intensify and build over the ArkLaMiss.
Going into today warming trend expected to continue as CWA will remain between high pressure to the east. and a lee-side trough over the Front Range. With overnight lows at least 10 degrees warmer than last night. a small shift eastward is expected for the trough to our west.
302 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016 Cold front shifting east of Vermont this morning will usher in noticeably cooler and drier air across the North Country today.
105 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 High pressure and a drier airmass will be in place across the region Monday and Tuesday.
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather across South Florida through the early portion of the week. With the lower coverage in thunderstorms early in the week combined with a later start time, temperatures will be allowed to climb into the lower to mid 90s across many locations. Both of the ECMWF and the GFS suggest the area of high pressure will slide westward into the Northwest Gulf by the middle of the week. This will allow for several upper level disturbances to move through South Florida, and it will also increase the lower level moisture across the region.
The high pressure responsible for the clear skies is to the east of the forecast area this afternoon. The high pressure is expected to continue to move to the east tonight and the pressure gradient across the area will increase. An upper level low approaches the area and a cold front is expected to move into the area. Models have a few small timing differences with the cold front moving into the area.
649 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 A noticeably cooler weather pattern will be felt early this week with a gradual warm up later in the week.
Otherwise, sightly cooler than normal temperatures are forecast over the next few days, along with widespread night and morning low clouds.
A stationary front currently south of the area will lift north as a warm front late tonight into Monday morning. Should also see some patchy fog develop across mainly the southern half of the forecast area into the early morning hours ahead of the warm front. Overnight tonight another upper trough to our west will produce conditions favorable for showers and thunderstorms to develop across our western counties and move toward the northeast.
337 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 High pressure and a drier airmass will be in place across the region through Tuesday.
322 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 At the upper levels a broad area of high pressure extends across the Florida peninsula with weak high surface pressure across the Florida peninsula. With the aforementioned upper level ridge, mid level temperatures will continue to remain unseasonably warm for the next couple of days.
Think the better chance for thunderstorms will be across Central KS as a cold front drops south into northern and central KS.
An upper ridge gives way to a shallow trough from the Pacific NW which contains a bit of moisture. The highest PW's drop southeast as the upper trough scours out the moisture in north west flow aloft. Surface winds with this trough will increase Monday afternoon and early evening in mainly northern Nevada. Temps remain warmer than normal, but cool off Tuesday to about normal.
256 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016 High pressure area centered over the CWA will slowly move east through tonight. Temps tonight will decrease again with the coolest temps, upper 50s, being in eastern IL, closer to the high pressure area and lighter winds. Slight warmer temps, around 60 will be seen in western IL.
In the upper levels, a ridge will build into the Southeast today as a trough exits the Mid-Atlantic states. At the surface, a weak pressure pattern will remain in place, although a weak cold front will be drifting into the area today from the north. Highs this afternoon will be in the low to mid 90s depending on how quickly showers and thunderstorms develop today.
135 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 A reinforcing cold front will push southeast across the area tonight.
120 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 A trough of low pressure moves across the region late tonight. High pressure then dominates the upcoming week.
Still the trough associated with the front and PW at 2 plus inches will continue with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms across the area today. The highest rain chances will continue to be across the north and west portions of the forecast area in the deeper moisture.
Better chance of storms Monday for the mountains as a slug of Large majority of tsra activity attm were noted over the higher terrain generally south of highway 50, generally over the s sangres and san juans. Min temps tonight will be warmer than this mornings lows. Max temps will reach into the L90s across the lower ark rvr valley, with 80s rest of the plains. Mtns/valleys will be cooler due to all of the clouds/precip.
22/06z Taf Cycle High pressure is over the area currently. Morning to early afternoon rain has pushed out of AR, as the drier and cooler air behind the cold front has gradually filtered into AR. The upper low pressure trough deepened enough to allow the cold front to push all the way through AR and finally end the rain. Much cooler than normal lows are expected tonight with the 50s over far northwest AR to the 60s elsewhere.
A quiet and slightly warmer day is in store for the region on Tuesday with with highs in the the lower 80s.
Kept the highest chances near Atoka and Durant (50-70%) where latest models have a rather strong depiction of rain in these locations.
505 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 High pressure dominates through most of the week. with only a weak cold frontal approach late week. Cold front is moving offshore this morning. High pressure over the Ohio river valley will begin to build east. High pressure builds overhead tonight into Tuesday. Northern extent of southern upper ridging gradually builds into the region through midweek. sprawling high pressure builds in from the west through midweek.
250 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016 Ridge axis extends across northern Illinois southwest through the STL Metro area and into far northwest Arkansas. The ridge will continue moving east today which will bring the wind around to the south-southeast by mid to late morning. The southerly flow and high August sun angle will allow a solid warm up; however the cool start to the morning will likely only allow highs in the low and mid 80s even with a 30 degree warm up.
147 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 High pressure will build in behind a departing cold front today, bringing cooler and drier air to the area for most of the week. Another weak cold front will approach the Western Carolinas from the northwest toward the end of the week. As of 1:40 am EDT: While AVL did see a trace of precipitation from an extremely shallow shower, radar is currently clear following the passage of a cold front earlier today. Drier boundary layer air will lead to lows a little cooler Monday morning than we have seen in recent weeks, and less humid and drier weather generally with very low chances for precipitation and temperatures several degrees cooler than yesterday and near seasonal normals.
Upper level ridging will move in from the east providing subsidence and lessening amounts of moisture available for precipitation production.
150 AM MDT MON AUG 22 2016 Upper ridge axis will cross the local area tonight resulting in dry conditions. Clouds will dissipate after sunset with loss of surface heating but with winds forecast to stay breezy from the south through the night temperatures will struggle to fall below the lower to middle 60s. Upper ridge will move east on Monday with southwesterly flow by the afternoon.
The models show a lobe of low pressure across Wrn SD this afternoon which will support a hot surge of air into Nrn Neb. Winds increase to 15 to 25 mph this afternoon and decrease only slightly tonight with the low level jet forming. The 500- 1000 J/KG of elevated cape and the disturbance could be sufficient for an isolated thunderstorm or two as the low level jet develops tonight. A cold front will be driven south through the area Tuesday as a strong area of upper level low pressure crosses southern Canada.
616 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 High pressure and a drier airmass will be in place across the region through Tuesday.
A sharp, fairly well-defined dry cold front has been moving through NW Montana overnight and is poised to pass through Missoula and the Bitterroot Valley between 4am and 5am, followed by Butte and SW Montana by 7am. Tuesday the backside of the exiting larger upper level trough will drive a weather disturbance south into Montana and Idaho.
414 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016 (Today and Tonight) With an upper level high over the southeastern CONUS and weak south- southwest flow aloft over our area, the arrival of a weak embedded disturbance will bring another chance for showers and thunderstorms today and tonight. Lows tonight should be in the lower 70s with mostly cloudy skies and humid conditions.
252 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 A noticeably cooler weather pattern will be felt early this week with a gradual warm up later in the week.
Synoptic Setup: short term begins with a large ridge running form California through Utah and Wyoming and terminating over the high plains of the Dakotas and Montana with the hottest air over South Dakota. To the northwest a large trough is setting over Washington southern British Columbia and southern Alberta. Ridge will topple by mid day today with the trough to the far west moving into western Montana by the afternoon. A cold front is anticipated at the surface during the afternoon as well leading to cooling temperatures overnight.
205 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 A cold front will move across overnight. High pressure will then dominate during the upcoming week.
333 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016 High pressure will provide cooler and drier conditions through the first half of the week. As a mid-level trough exits the region to the east, some lingering clouds have remained across the forecast area, but the clouds should depart by the afternoon. With high pressure dominating the central United States, northwesterly flow is expected across the region. Not only will this bring cooler temperatures, it will bring drier air. As high pressure eases east, winds will shift from the northwest to the southwest, bringing a return to warmer air across the region.
204 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016 Cold front shifting east of Vermont this morning will usher in noticeably cooler and drier air across the North Country today.
338 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 High pressure centered over the lower Ohio River Valley early this morning will build to the east. The center of the high is forecast to pass over our region on Tuesday before moving off the coast and drifting out to sea.
Fropa begins to push into the FA on Tuesday afternoon with another warm day ahead of the front as airmass remains unchanged, so will go with another round of low 90s in the south and near 90 up the central valley into NW MN as the cold front is progged to push into the DVL BSN a bit earlier than previous model solns.
414 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 Cooler and less humid conditions will dominate through Tuesday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
306 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016 High pressure will be in control through much of this week with dry and generally seasonable weather.
As temperatures climb into the low to mid 90s again, we will have sufficient instability to support a few thunderstorms but overall coverage will be low given limited moisture. Upper ridging will meander over the SE US through the period with an upper low approaching the Bahamas region over the weekend. At the surface, a weak trough just to the north of the state will wash out as high pressure to the north/northeast builds down across the area. An inverted trough will then lift over the Bahamas region for the weekend. Tuesday the pattern will shift as high pressure builds in to the north of the waters, ushering in a period of northeasterly flow.
A weak cold front is draped over the Appalachian mountains and southwestward across central Mississippi and Louisiana and coastal Texas. The mid level trough and associated energy will be moving northeastward well removed from the area. The cold front sags a little further south, towards the I-10 corridor Tuesday. Heat index values will be around 100 to the lower 100s each afternoon.
537 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016 High pressure will provide cooler and drier conditions through the first half of the week. As a mid-level trough exits the region to the east, some lingering clouds have remained across the forecast area, but the clouds should depart by the afternoon. With high pressure dominating the central United States, northwesterly flow is expected across the region. Not only will this bring cooler temperatures, it will bring drier air. As high pressure eases east, winds will shift from the northwest to the southwest, bringing a return to warmer air across the region.
This comes in response to an upper level trough moving across the western CONUS. This will be in response to low pressure developing in the high plains. Overnight lows will be a bit warmer thanks to the increasing moisture with lows in the 60s.
/Issued 418 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016/ A slow moving cold front is moving toward central to s GA today. Models in fairly good agreement with keeping the best precip chances over central Ga today with the highest pops of 40 percent near the southern CWA border. High pressure aloft builds. partially due to the lower level flow becoming ESE and a weak wave trying to move through the ridge aloft. POPS are very much a compromise for Tuesday but the area s and e of MCN will have the highest chances. BDL The GFS and ECMWF models remain in agreement that an upper level ridge will dominate the southeast U.
High pressure will track from central Illinois this evening to southwest Indiana by sunrise Monday morning. Dewpoints are already bouncing back up with the evening cooling and given the setup of clear skies, light winds and high pressure overhead, feel that patchy to areas of fog may form in some of the sheltered valleys and typical fog prone areas. High pressure drifting from the lower Ohio Valley to New England will provide us with dry, pleasant summer weather into mid-week.
Don't expect cold front to make much more southward progress before dissipating. While upper ridging builds over the area, there is still going to be enough moisture around to allow for convective development.
As a low pressure system to our north drifts away from the region. a dry ridge of high pressure will build into the two state area. However the low pressure will influence our weather with breezy winds over the gorge and kittitas valley today along with some clouds and cooler temperatures into tomorrow.
503 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 A cold front will cross the area this morning then move east into the Maritimes this afternoon.
1117 PM PDT Sun Aug 21 2016 A dry cold front will move through the Inland Northwest this tonight, causing windy conditions and elevated fire danger. Expect much cooler temperatures on Monday.
With low pressure deepening on the lee side of the Rockies and high pressure to our east.
318 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 A weak cold front will push through the region early this morning and become stationary near the CSRA. A slightly cooler and drier air mass will build over the area through mid week before the upper ridge builds back over the southeastern states. A dry weak cold front across the northern Midlands at 07z will move slowly through the region this morning. So expect slightly cooler and drier conditions with maximum temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Weak isentropic lift and weak short wave trough moving through the area suggests a few showers may develop.