Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1208 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA ALONG WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN PROBABLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE DISTRICT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE CENTER OF THE LOW OVER SANTA BARBARA AND VENTURA COUNTIES. HIGH AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH THE LOW. LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW AS FREEZING LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE 12KFT. HOWEVER MODELS TRENDING FOR A SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND PROG UNIDIRECTIONAL MID LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SSE.
250 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 DEW POINTS HAVE PLUMMETED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S THIS AFTERNOON. WITH RH VALUES NOW IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S AS WELL. MAIN STORY TONIGHT WILL BE FREEZING TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING ALONG THE JAMES TO SUX.
357 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REACH BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
556 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 A cold front tracking southeast into central IL at mid afternoon will sweep through southeast IL early this evening. Breezy sw winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts 25 to 30 mph ahead of cold front have turned wnw behind cold front nearing I-72 at mid afternoon. Breezy northwest winds around 15 mph will continue Friday behind the cold front as strong Canadian high pressure tracks toward central IL. Cooler air will continue to filter into the region. with highs reaching only the mid 50s around Galesburg ranging up to the low 60s around Lawrenceville. As high pressure moves into central IL Friday night.
349 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 PRETTY ACTIVE DAY FOR A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN. FOR TONIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE AND DIMINISH BY 00Z AND WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING INTO WESTERN IOWA TONIGHT. I AGREE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE CURRENT FROST ADVISORY SINCE THE SOUTHWEST HAS YET TO SEE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND THE NISH VALLEY WILL LIKELY DROP TO THE MID 30S TONIGHT. THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOUCHED FREEZING IN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS SO I AM NOT CONSIDERING HEADLINES FOR THAT AREA TONIGHT.
244 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES WERE RANGING FROM NEAR 80F ALONG THE LOWER TENNESSEE RIVER.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE NW STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
332 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 1224 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY A S/WV WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND MIDWEST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY RE-ENFORCING TROUGHING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AFTER ANOTHER WARM DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS AGAIN APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS (SRN AREAS). WILL SEE HIGHS SOME 25 DEG COOLER ON FRI DUE TO CAA AND CLOUD COVER. MOS LOWS LOOK TOO COLD TONIGHT ESP WHEN COMPARING TO RAW MODEL TEMPS WHICH TYPICALLY HANDLE FIRST CAA NIGHT BEHIND COLD FRONTS BETTER. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY NIGHT FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U. TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH WEAK RIDGING PINNED SOUTH OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA.
Sounding data and forecast BUFR data continue to show a dry air mass in the lower levels with mainly mid/upper moisture with the frontal passage and behind the front. All precipitation is expected to end by 12z Friday with a drier and much cooler air mass moving into the area as Canadian high pressure enters from the northwest. Temperatures on Friday will be much cooler than today with highs struggling in the 60s. Could see the first bit of frost over the eastern Ozarks heading into Friday night as high pressure begins to settle over the area and winds become light and variable under a clear sky.
305 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 A cold front tracking southeast into central IL at mid afternoon will sweep through southeast IL early this evening. Breezy sw winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts 25 to 30 mph ahead of cold front have turned wnw behind cold front nearing I-72 at mid afternoon. Breezy northwest winds around 15 mph will continue Friday behind the cold front as strong Canadian high pressure tracks toward central IL. Cooler air will continue to filter into the region. with highs reaching only the mid 50s around Galesburg ranging up to the low 60s around Lawrenceville. As high pressure moves into central IL Friday night.
Southwesterly winds and mostly clear skies will continue across the region this afternoon ahead of a cold front. During the morning hours Friday skies should begin to scatter out from north to south as the cold front exits the region. The greatest chances for near Red Flag looks to be over Southeast Oklahoma where a few gusts up around 20 mph and the lowest RH values should be co-located. Mostly sunny skies along with the above seasonal average temperatures will aid in near record high temps this afternoon ahead of the developing cold front to the north.
312 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 At 3 PM today, the cold front continues its southward progression through southern portions of the CWA. Scattered showers were noted developing across central MO as a short wave trough shifted into northern KS. Throughout the CWA, forecast lows are a bit warmer in the upper 30s. Calm and cooler conditions return for Friday with light northerly winds, clear skies, and highs generally in the low to middle 60s.
312 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTHERN AMERICA. A FEW ENHANCED AREAS OF VORTICITY WERE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH. AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL NEAR FREEZING OVERNIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SPREAD MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN UTAH FRIDAY.
330 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE WITH CLEAR SKIES. A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH A DRY COLD FRONT CUTTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEN PASSES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE WHOLE TROUGH DESCENDING FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN THE GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS. THIS WILL SET UP A GOOD RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS. WITH THE APPROACH OF A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S DESPITE POST FRONTAL CAA THROUGH THE DAY.
108 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT MAKES IT INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA BY EARLY EVENING THEN CROSSES THE REST OF THE CWA TONIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL THEN SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW SPOTS COULD EVEN DROP CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK.
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH FRIDAY.
A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING ARIZONA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT.
300 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER LOCALLY AS IT VEERS 850MB- SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.
242 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION TONIGHT.
ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. DUE TO THE DRY AIR MASS TEMPS ARE WARMING QUICKLY IN MOST LOCATIONS AND ARE STILL ON TRACK TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW 80S NORTHEAST TO NEAR 90 SOUTHWEST. THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH ENDS TOMORROW AS A DRY COLD FRONT PASSES THRU THE REGION AND BRINGS AN EVEN DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE STATE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WEST COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER MT WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD-COVER AND GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR WITH H85 TEMPS APROCHING -10C REACHES THE FORECAST AREA AND LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING SMALL CAPE VALUES IN THE SATURATED LAYER ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ONLY LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS THAT FAVOR LES. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS DUE IN LARGE PART TO EFFICIENT MIXING INTO THE HIGHER MOMENTUM AIRMASS NEAR ALOFT. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY LATE AFTERNOON FURTHER ENHANCING THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. CIGS WILL LOWER INTO MVFR RANGE JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT INL AND HIB.
216 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT. THE COOLER EDGE OF GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED FOR LOWS TONIGHT PER RECENT VERIFICATION.
115 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2015 UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO TEXAS AND TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. COLDEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S AND CAN FIND NO REASON TO DEVIATE SO THE CURRENT FROST ADVISORY LOOKS OK. THIS WILL BE RECIRCULATED COLD AIR THAT HAS ONLY BEEN SLIGHTLY MODIFIED RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
237 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 236 PM CDT A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. AND THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER TO 50S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.
340 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
234 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS CLOSING IN ON ST. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HAD WARMED INTO THE LOW-MID 80S IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE UNDER SUNNY SKIES. THE MODELS ARE FAVORABLE IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY BETWEEN THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE VERY LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
215 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 A developing cold front on approach from the northwest will make its passage tonight. It will draw down the cooler Canadian temps, and we'll see fairly widespread 30s both tmrw nite and Sat nite. And while both nites shud see frost, Sat nite retains the best chance for a more widespread frost with the combo of ideal synoptic conditions for clr sky/light wind radiational cooling, as the high centers over Il by 12Z Sun. Thats when both the ECMWF and the GFS bring a long wave trough through the central plains forcing the high over the gulf states to the east coast. Visible shots and surface obs reveal upstream mid decks advancing this way on developing cold front.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS IN THE 06-12Z TIMEFRAME.
207 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2015 UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO TEXAS AND TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. COLDEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S AND CAN FIND NO REASON TO DEVIATE SO THE CURRENT FROST ADVISORY LOOKS OK. THIS WILL BE RECIRCULATED COLD AIR THAT HAS ONLY BEEN SLIGHTLY MODIFIED RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
215 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2015 LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
A strong cold front will arrive overnight, first impacting KCNM and KHOB around 08Z, followed by KMAF around 10Z, KINK around 11Z, and KPEQ around 12Z.
246 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 236 PM CDT A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. AND THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER TO 50S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.
619 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO NY AND PA FRIDAY MORNING. AS A SURFACE CYCLONE MOVES ALONG THE NY/ONTARIO BORDER EARLY THIS EVENING, A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. POPS WERE CUT ONCE AGAIN, WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN FA CLOSER TO THE CYCLONE.
445 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 UPDATE A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
636 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL TRACK INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
CONCERNS THEN FOCUS ON THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE COLD FRONT IS STARTING TO ENTER THE PANHANDLE LATE THIS MORNING. CAA WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN MIDWEST. SFC CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MAKES ITS WAY INTO WESTERN OK WHERE A COUPLE OF STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP BEFORE 00Z WITHIN INSTABILITY AXIS.
105 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION TONIGHT.
304 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2015 THE COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT IT WAS QUITE COOLER TODAY. AND THE COLD AIRMASS WILL HELP CREATE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST COLORADO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FRIDAY PROMISES TO BE WARMER AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN IN THE AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON FRIDAY.
AS A COLD FRONT WAS JUST APPROACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CENTER OVER NORTH DAKOTA BY FRIDAY MORNING. AN H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. WHILE IT IS REPLACED WITH A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
Expect a couple more days of beautiful Autumn weather across the entire Northern Rockies under high pressure. Plenty of sunshine and very warm temperatures (near record in some valleys) will occur, ranging in the 70s in western Montana and mid to upper 80s in the valleys of the Lower Hells Canyon in central Idaho.
254 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 The cold front was currently analyzed from central MO westward along the KS/OK border and into the northern TX panhandle. The strengthening cold front will begin a southward surge later this afternoon. with the highest coverage likely remaining across northeast OK into parts of northwest AR. The cooler weather will persist through the weekend.
253 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A LONG WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOOKING AT SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THAT AREA. TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH OF I-90. LOOK FOR THOSE INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A CHILLY FRIDAY SETTING UP FOR THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE/COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE TO BUILD IN. FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKING TO BE VERY CHILLY ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S ELSEWHERE. WILL NEED TO HAVE A FREEZE WARNING FOR THOSE AREAS AWAY FROM CENTRAL WI THAT HAVE NOT YET SEEN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
-HOWERTON MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY WITH UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS. ANTICIPATE MORE WIND/WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MON COMPARED TO SUN. -HOWERTON WITH COLD FRONT HAVING SETTLED INTO N & NE OK AS WELL AS EXTREME SE KS AT 17Z. -SHRA & ISOLD -TSRA ARE PSBL FOR PRIMARILY FAR SC & SE KS THIS EVE BUT WITH THE LOWEST 8,000-10,000FT OF AIRMASS QUITE DRY HAVE KEPT "VCSH" ASSIGNED TO KICT & KCNU TIL ~05Z.
1246 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1019 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES (IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE) ARE ALREADY 2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT 10 AM AND MODEL 850 MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 18 TO 19 DEGREES IN NW ALABAMA. NORTHEAST ALABAMA SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER. KTW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AS A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE WELL ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS PRESENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. AT THE HIGHEST. THE COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO CLEAR THE PANHANDLE REGION BTWN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED TODAY. WITH UPPER RIDGE PUSHING IN BEHIND.
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING OVER THE AREA, AS A COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH COLDER & DRIER AIR FILTERING IN.
828 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 COLD UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
a long wave trof was located over the eastern half of the United States with a second closed low off the California coast.
KAMA MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES AS THE HIGH-BASED SHOWERS MOVE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 15 KT. THIS TROF MAY CAUSE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS DRYLINE SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF SHARPENING. /ISSUED 243 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016/ A LEAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS ARIZONA.
/ISSUED 958 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016/ TRANSITORY RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH ESTABLISHED UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW CONTINUING TO PULL IN HIGH LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE/CIRRUS.
12Z ECMWF AND SOME OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS WERE SHOWING A BAND OF PRECIP MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT THAT SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE FORCING FROM THE WAA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO MINNESOTA FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A MAJOR TROUGH WILL CARVE ITSELF OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION.
18Z SFC DATA HAS A COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM SOUTHERN MICHIGAN INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
A decent shot of low level CAA has moved into areas north of I-70 now and will be expanding elsewhere by midnight to allow temperatures to fall below freezing in all locations save some pockets of the STL urban heat island. The combination of the magnitude of this freeze and the duration below freezing (~4-8 hours) make this freeze warming dramatically different than previous warnings issued thus far this spring. Plants and crops are much more at risk and could be severely damaged or killed given the forecast temperatures tonight and the duration below freezing.
THIS IS LEAVING A NARROW RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND MOSTLY FAIR AND WARM WEATHER. WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IN CALIFORNIA REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL ON SATURDAY.
823 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY.
/issued 342 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016/ (Tonight and Saturday) Currently, an upper level low off the west coast is moving east/southeast toward southern California. So, will show Likely PoPs for these areas tomorrow morning, although rainfall amounts are expected relatively modest with the highest totals near one quarter of an inch.
MUCH OF COLORADO IS UNDER WEAK RIDGE ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON WHILE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A PIECE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE WILL EJECT ACROSS COLORADO ON SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY. LOOKS LIKE EMPHASIS WILL BE ON SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA AND PALMER DIVIDE AND WILL HAVE THE HIGHER POPS THERE.
WEAK MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MX THIS EVENING WHILE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS S TX. 00Z KCRP RAOB INDICATES VERY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
958 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 TRANSITORY RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH ESTABLISHED UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW CONTINUING TO PULL IN HIGH LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE/CIRRUS.
On Saturday, will see upper trough shift well out of the area and a transition in upper flow from northwest to more of a west- southwest flow.
1145 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 High pressure over Manitoba will quickly make its way into eastern Iowa and Missouri late tonight bringing an end to the gusty winds. This combined with clear skies overnight will allow temperatures to drop to near or below freezing across much of the forecast area, including a hard freeze over northern Missouri where temperatures could drop into the mid 20s. High pressure shifting to the east on Saturday will bring winds around from the southeast. However these winds and increasing clouds will keep temperatures quite a bit warmer Saturday night with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
UPPER TROUGH STILL GENERATING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
625 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 High pressure over Manitoba will quickly make its way into eastern Iowa and Missouri late tonight bringing an end to the gusty winds. This combined with clear skies overnight will allow temperatures to drop to near or below freezing across much of the forecast area, including a hard freeze over northern Missouri where temperatures could drop into the mid 20s. High pressure shifting to the east on Saturday will bring winds around from the southeast. However these winds and increasing clouds will keep temperatures quite a bit warmer Saturday night with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
THIS SUPPORTS WEIGHTING THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOWARDS RAW MODEL GUIDANCE RESULTING IN LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. WHICH IF IT WERE STILL WINTER WOULD PERHAPS BE CALLED AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
AND THIS INITIAL PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED TO BE RAIN WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THINK THE BULK OF THE SNOW THAT FALLS IN THE RIDGES WILL BE FROM THE NW FLOW AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE EAST. AND ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL END BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
SATURDAY WILL BE A COOLER DAY IN THE INTERIOR WITH MORNING CLOUDS.
The main concern is freezing temperatures overnight. There is a secondary cold front moving southeast across the Ohio River as of 01z. The only area that may escape sub-freezing temps is along the Arkansas border including kpof, where temps were still in the upper 50s at 01z. Despite winds staying up overnight, trajectories and model 2m temps suggest we will be able to fall to freezing or lower. Saturday will be dry and quiet with high pressure ridge axis moving across the region.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.