Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
With the upper trof swinging across the area, and another slug of moisture spilling down from the Great Lakes within it, high res modeling is spitting out a little QPF in our northeast this afternoon. This may translate to another dusting up there, similar to yesterday, so we'll carry a small pop with otherwise flurries accompanying the trof passage. Dew points may drop into the lower single digits in the Ozarks before the close of the day, allowing RH levels to drop into the 20s percentile. Temps will plummet down into the lower half of the teens region-wide tonight. Northeast parts of the FA will struggle to reach the freezing mark.
The upper level trough finishes moving through the region, bringing in additional cold air to help reinforce lower temps.
A much colder and drier airmass will continue to move into the area through Saturday in the wake of a strong cold front. Skies will gradually clear through this evening as the upper trough continues to move east. Gusty northwest winds will continue through tonight as the pressure gradient tightens due to strong high pressure building in from the west. Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 20s inland to upper 20s to near 30s along the coast. Sunny conditions return on Saturday, however with cold air advection continuing, temps will struggle to reach the low to mid 40s in most areas.
but the freezing rain risk is fairly close to Jackson County which will need to be monitored.
Winds aloft will remain northwesterly through today and tomorrow as the trough continues east and a ridge builds over the Four Corners. A front is expected to turn winds to the northwest across the Panhandles later this afternoon following the upper trough that brought us the snow yesterday. Highs today are warming nicely into the lower 50s with downsloping winds, which will help to melt more of the lingering snow.
Our inversion remains with us this morning in valley locations, and stratus continues to cover much of the lower elevations of southeast Oregon, in the Upper Weiser River Basin, and along much of the Snake River.
258 PM CST Fri Jan 28 2022 A mid/upper trough axis stretched from the Great Lakes area south and southwestward across the Middle Mississippi Valley area while a mid/upper ridge was centered across the Central Great Basin area. the mid/upper ridge over the Great Basin area is progged to break down early in the week as a robust mid/upper trough moves over the Northern Rockies and into the Northern Plains.
Current visible satellite imagery indicates a decent break in the cloud cover and with some sunshine, expect temperatures will be able to warm into the low 40s in many locations before the front arrives. Surface temperatures will still be at to slightly below freezing. Concurrently, the deep upper level trough will rotate through the Tennessee Valley. Northwesterly upslope flow will lead to the possibility of some minor accumulations in the higher elevations of Southern Middle Tennessee and Northeast Alabama. Around midnight, expect wind chill values to drop into the teens and bottom out in the single digits to near zero degrees in the higher elevations of northeastern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee around daybreak on Saturday. This should allow for enough warm air and weak moisture advection for lows to remain a bit warmer, mainly in the lower to mid 20s.
Behind this wave, subsidence will contribute to clearing, as seen in clearing skies west of Peoria and Springfield, however the low level flow direction is allowing the Lake Michigan snow band to continue to drift south-southwestward into much of central IL, and will take a slow course shifting to a more south-southeastward direction. As high pressure builds into the region, skies will become clear and winds will go light/variable tonight.
206 PM CST Fri Jan 28 2022 A dry frontal passage early Saturday will see winds shift to the west and usher in some warmer air from an upper ridge over the Rockies. There will still be a sharp gradient from east to west with cooler temps expected to persist over snow-covered ground. The winds and warmer temperatures will combine to produce high to very high fire danger south of Pierre. With high pressure briefly over the east late Saturday night, there could be some early morning fog in light winds, especially over the James Valley where llm could be abundant after a day of melting snow.
Most models agree that the higher elevations along the northern plateau have the potential to pick up an inch of two with the snow shower activity that is expected to ramp up by mid afternoon. Currently the upper trough axis is along the Mississippi River and moving our way. As the upper trough swings into the area this afternoon, the colder temperatures aloft will allow some scattered convective shower activity to develop. Although above freezing surface temperatures will be in place areawide by 21z, evaporative cooling will drag temperatures down the rest of the afternoon which will mean most of the precipitation will fall as snow.
Colder and drier air continues to race into Central Alabama here at midday following the passage of the cold front.
- Tranquil Weather Through Saturday Afternoon - A high pressure ridge will bring tranquil and cold wx through Saturday afternoon. - Weak System To Bring Light Snow Saturday Night - A weak low pressure system moving in from the NW will bring potential for scattered light snow showers Saturday night. However what seems more certain is that this system will have ample gulf moisture to work with and that a strong baroclinic zone will setup across the lower Great Lakes to Ohio Valley regions. My gut feel is that the strong high pressure ridge building se from Canada will bring ample arctic air into our area such that p-type will likely end up being predominantly snow (we are favoring the colder medium range guidance solutions).
142 PM CST Fri Jan 28 2022 As we enter into the evening and night time hours, upper level ridging will take place across the ArkLaMiss and a high pressure will begin to settle in. /JNE/ A notable warming trend will be underway at the start of the forecast period as the core of a cold continental polar airmass and parent trough lifts northeast away from the region. Behind it, westerly low-level flow will quickly advect in much warmer temperatures as heights gradually rise.
The forecast area is on the backside of a departing trough and will remain under northwest flow aloft through Saturday.
1024 AM MST Fri Jan 28 2022 Not too many concerns in the short term as long wave ridging will keep dry conditions through the period. As for high temperatures, we have tended more toward the higher end of guidance East of the Divide. The warmer areas, like near Buffalo, may crack the 50 degree mark Friday or Saturday. With warmer air aloft, colder weather will remain West of the Divide with deeper inversions and deeper snowpack.
High pressure will decouple low level flow tonight and make for a frosty start. /Today through Saturday/ By this morning, the Four-States region will start to get clipped by a rather robust long wave trough moving through the midwest. This is the same trough that will help potentially bring feet of snow to the northeast. Highs today will range from the low to mid-50s, with lows tonight ranging in the mid to upper-20s. Given a tight pressure gradient with this trough, gusty winds will also be possible into the evening hours. By Saturday however, the trough begins to slide to our east, which will open up some areas to return to average temperatures. Look for afternoon highs in the low-60s in our western zones, and low-50s in our eastern zones.
1027 AM MST Fri Jan 28 2022 Current surface map place high pressure across eastern South Dakota into southern Minnesota, with warm front across western South Dakota. Warm front shifts eastward today while western CONUS upper level ridge provides robust low level warm advection. Ridge flattens this weekend.
Clear skies today with light winds will continue overnight, aiding decent radiational cooling that will bring our lows Saturday morning down to the low to mid 20s. Surface SW winds and high pressure overhead will return on Saturday, bringing near-normal temperatures and drier conditions to the region. Highs Saturday afternoon will be in the low to mid 60s, and with clear skies and relatively light winds, it will be a nice day to enjoy outside. Temperatures Saturday night will be around 5 degrees warmer than Friday night with mid 20s to mid 30s.
The edge of this snowpack has slightly melted today as temperatures have warmed to above freezing. This should lead to slightly warmer lows with values in the mix of the upper teens to mid 20s. As a result, highs outside of the snowpack should be able to peak into the lower 60s across the Oklahoma border.
155 PM CST Fri Jan 28 2022 As an upper trof pushes off to our east, clouds will decrease tonight from west to east. Along with lots of sunshine, temperatures will make it into the lower 30s over southwest Indiana, to near 40 degrees in the Ozark Foothills of Missouri. More significantly, lows Saturday night will be 10 to 12 degrees warmer than Friday night.
Winds will become light and variable overnight while the high slides over the region, and combined with the clear sky, allowing temperatures to cool effectively overnight. Despite the chilly start, temperatures will warm effectively on Saturday under the influence of the advancing low-level ridge and subsequent warm air advection and clear sky. Areas across central Missouri will warm the most, being positioned closest to the ridge.
Raised max temps for most locations, although they will be a little cooler from northwestern to south central SD where snow fell yesterday. Current surface map place high pressure across eastern South Dakota into southern Minnesota, with warm front across western South Dakota. Warm front shifts eastward today while western CONUS upper level ridge provides robust low level warm advection. Ridge flattens this weekend.
1154 AM CST Fri Jan 28 2022 (Today and tonight) Patchy freezing fog will remain possible early this morning in parts of southwest Oklahoma due to lingering snow cover.
1107 AM MST Fri Jan 28 2022 Weather during the short term remains fairly consistent, as an amplified ridge of high pressure builds overhead. Elsewhere, building heights aloft also carries in warmer temperatures. By Saturday ridging overhead will become suppressed by two low pressure systems at play. Guidance has trended well in line with the southern cut-off low traversing the Great Basin on Saturday. Simultaneously, a low digging along the northern British Columbia province will aid in suppressing the low overhead and turning mid level winds to the northwest.
The Florida Keys still remain on the periphery of a broad low level trough with weak cyclonic flow. Meanwhile, a cold front is draped along the north Gulf coast and beginning to slide east and southeast. Breezes will gradually freshen through the afternoon and evening and then sharply increase behind a cold front passage expected after midnight tonight.
Cold front has pushed south of the forecast area, and associated snow will continue to slowly taper off through the afternoon. The base of the deep upper trough will be well east of the Ohio Valley, with strong but broad ridging out west.
Outside of the lake effect snow, the rest of the forecast area will have mostly clear skies as an area of high pressure continues to push into the area this evening. Yack Saturday will feature shallow mixing due to lingering influence of departing surface ridging. Looking at highs in the lower-mid 20s I-80 and north and mid-upper 20s south amidst a light to moderate southerly wind. If there's any pockets of clearing late Saturday night just ahead of the front, which is appearing unlikely, can't rule out some very patchy freezing fog due to low temperature-dew point spreads and snow cover.
109 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022 Snow will slowly taper off through tonight behind a cold front, with a few inches expected along the ridges. High pressure brings dry and cold weather Saturday.
1120 AM CST Fri Jan 28 2022 A short wave trof currently centered through IA will dig southeastward and deepen today. Otherwise a reinforcing cold front associated with this short wave will push through the area this morning accompanied by stratus and rather potent CAA, and lead to well below normal temperatures today. A return of veering south to westerly lower tropospheric flow on Saturday and low level WAA will bring warmer temperatures, especially across central and eastern MO.
Gusty north winds behind a cold front will continue into the late afternoon hours across most of the region. Overnight lows will range from the mid 20s to the lower 30s. Highs will top out in the low to mid 60s Saturday afternoon. Dry air and light winds remain intact Saturday night along with overnight lows in the lower to mid 30s.
338 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022 High pressure will provide dry and very cold weather tonight and Saturday.
1109 AM CST Fri Jan 28 2022 (Today and tonight) Cold front has cleared West Central Texas early this morning, with a little colder conditions in its wake. Satellite also shows a small area of fog near and just east of Abilene in the higher elevations along the Taylor/Jones/Callahan/Shackelford 4 corners area. But will continue to monitor and if it expands in coverage or the visibility drops very much more, will add an area of freezing fog to the forecast. Otherwise, a slightly cooler day upcoming, but with fairly abundant sunshine. Temperatures mainly in the low to mid 50s. Another decent radiational cooling night tonight, with lows int he low to mid 20 across the lower areas and river valleys. Lows in the lower 30s across some of the higher elevation hilltops.
Cold temperatures will be on tap across the region today! Highs will mainly be in the 40s for most areas with a few spots across the south reaching the low 50s. As high pressure builds in from the northwest tonight and the pressure gradient eases up some, temperatures should plummet into the lower to mid 20s areawide.
1126 AM CST Fri Jan 28 2022 (The rest of today ) An upper trough axis is swinging thru the region today, with some lingering mid cloud across far NE OK/NW AR closer to the PV max over MO. As the trough slides off to the east, clouds should decrease in coverage this afternoon. At the surface, broad ridging exists across the southwest and south central CONUS, while a slug of arctic air is progressing southeast across the MO River Valley and into the MO Ozarks concomitant with the upper trough.
Did go slightly cooler than NBM with this afternoons MaxT in a swath across the snowpack. Winds should go light tonight under clear skies, with another night of strong radiational cooling and subfreezing temperatures. Pressure heights will be increasing tonight as the upper ridge currently across the western U. NBM was a bit cool biased, so went slightly warmer using the CONSMOS, which was also a bit closer to MAV guidance. Afternoon temperatures Saturday will likely warm into the upper 60s to near 70 degrees across our southwest, which would be about 15 degrees warmer than average for late January days.
(The rest of today ) An upper trough axis is swinging thru the region today, with some lingering mid cloud across far NE OK/NW AR closer to the PV max over MO. As the trough slides off to the east, clouds should decrease in coverage this afternoon. At the surface, broad ridging exists across the southwest and south central CONUS, while a slug of arctic air is progressing southeast across the MO River Valley and into the MO Ozarks concomitant with the upper trough.
Weak lee troughing/cyclogenesis will occur on Saturday keeping winds with a downsloping component.
Otherwise positive tilt mid/upper trough axis pulls east today and sets up a broad northwest anticyclonic flow regime right into Saturday.
1145 AM CST Fri Jan 28 2022 A quiet weather pattern will be in place during the short term period due to upper level ridging setting up over the western U. Otherwise, today will be the last cool day before much warmer weather arrives.
1031 AM MST Fri Jan 28 2022 18Z TAF CYCLE Upper ridge axis to move over NM Saturday with mostly light winds.
Expecting winds to weaken as we head further into the evening and into the overnight hours as high pressure will begin to build into the region. All evidence of the upper trough, turning direction by about 30 degrees aloft, and lifting in the 800-850mb layer with some of the good RH seen on our sounding this morning. This area of high pressure will slide over us toward the SE during the overnight hours with N/NE winds dropping to 5 to 10 mph by sunset and further slacking to near calm after midnight.
603 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022 High pressure will provide dry and very cold weather tonight and Saturday.
All evidence of the upper trough, turning direction by about 30 degrees aloft, and lifting in the 800-850mb layer with some of the good RH seen on our sounding this morning. This area of high pressure will slide over us toward the SE during the overnight hours with N/NE winds dropping to 5 to 10 mph by sunset and further slacking to near calm after midnight.
222 PM MST Fri Jan 28 2022 Quiet weather is in store to begin the weekend as weak ridging builds in from our west. The warmer airmass will help bump tonight's temperature up some 5-15 degrees (depending on location) compared to last night, although most if not all of the plains will still remain firmly below freezing. The foothills and adjacent urban areas west of I-25 will be a touch milder owing to lingering breezy conditions and the higher elevation. Expect another very cold night for the high valleys with lows well into the negatives, but likely not as frigid as this morning. Breezy conditions will return to the mountains, Cheyenne Ridge, and NE plains, with gusts generally 25-35 mph (35-45 mph for the mountains).
High pressure will remain in place through the weekend.
Today's temperatures are once again in the low to mid-60s throughout the valley and foothills, upper 50s in the Kern Desert, and mostly 40s to low 50s in the Sierra. For the weekend, a ridge of high pressure will remain locked over the western CONUS as a cutoff low pressure moves into SoCal.
clouds will thicken for a period this evening as a weak trough exits east of the area, with a brief period of possible clearing for some spots (best chance over the northeast), then clouds look to increase from the southwest as a weak warm front and low pressure system approach. Slightly warmer readings are expected near the shores of Lake Michigan. other than the chance of some flurries, a dry start to the day is expected as high pressure slides south/east of the region.
646 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022 High pressure will provide dry and very cold weather tonight and Saturday.
700 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022 Snow will slowly taper off tonight behind a cold front. High pressure brings dry and cold weather Saturday.
/22/ As we enter into the evening and night time hours, upper level ridging will take place across the ArkLaMiss and a high pressure will begin to settle in. /JNE/ A notable warming trend will be underway at the start of the forecast period as the core of a cold continental polar airmass and parent trough lifts northeast away from the region. Behind it, westerly low-level flow will quickly advect in much warmer temperatures as heights gradually rise.
521 PM CST Fri Jan 28 2022 A dry frontal passage early Saturday will see winds shift to the west and usher in some warmer air from an upper ridge over the Rockies. There will still be a sharp gradient from east to west with cooler temps expected to persist over snow-covered ground. The winds and warmer temperatures will combine to produce high to very high fire danger south of Pierre. With high pressure briefly over the east late Saturday night, there could be some early morning fog in light winds, especially over the James Valley where llm could be abundant after a day of melting snow.
414 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022 An upper level long wave trough is beginning to move into the Gulf of Mexico. This upper level trough is helping to drive a surface cold front, currently located just off the north Gulf coast, east and southeast. Moisture rounding the base of the upper level trough is enough that clouds have overspread across the region this afternoon.
Northwest flow aloft persist over the area today and Saturday as a ridge sits over the Western CONUS.
257 PM MST Fri Jan 28 2022 The core of the high pressure is starting shift a little more to the southeast, instead of bring more elongated along Idaho. With the overall setup remaining the same through the short term, or becoming a little more improved, the highlight will continue through tomorrow evening.
Dry conditions are expected for the weekend, with highs mainly in the low to mid 30s. This shift in low level winds for central IL combined with incoming high pressure should continue to diminish snow activity by sunset. Southerly winds should return on Saturday after the high passes to the east, bringing milder temperatures back, with highs mainly low to mid 30s.
649 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022 Light snow will taper from north to south early tonight and pivot across the lower Susquehanna Valley before exiting Saturday morning.
A weak low pressure will allow for light rain and snow showers to develop across the mountains on Saturday.
A mid/upper trough axis stretched from the Great Lakes area south and southwestward across the Middle Mississippi Valley area while a mid/upper ridge was centered across the Central Great Basin area. the mid/upper ridge over the Great Basin area is progged to break down early in the week as a robust mid/upper trough moves over the Northern Rockies and into the Northern Plains.
Valleys will likely cool into the low to mid 20s, but hilltops a few miles away may struggle to fall below freezing.
410 PM MST Fri Jan 28 2022 00Z TAF CYCLE Upper ridge passing overhead with VFR through the TAF period. Another cold night is expected tonight as lows vary from below zero to the low 20s.
Quiet weather is in store to begin the weekend as weak ridging builds in from our west. The warmer airmass will help bump tonight's temperature up some 5-15 degrees (depending on location) compared to last night, although most if not all of the plains will still remain firmly below freezing. The foothills and adjacent urban areas west of I-25 will be a touch milder owing to lingering breezy conditions and the higher elevation. Expect another very cold night for the high valleys with lows well into the negatives, but likely not as frigid as this morning. Breezy conditions will return to the mountains, Cheyenne Ridge, and NE plains, with gusts generally 25-35 mph (35-45 mph for the mountains).
High pressure will settle overhead tomorrow, providing light and variable winds and clear skies through the end of the TAF period.
High pressure is centered over eastern Washington and Oregon this afternoon, creating stable conditions over western Montana and central Idaho.
Plenty of returns on radar this afternoon as the upper level trough axis swings through the area. After temperatures crept into the lower 40s, evaporative cooling has helped drop those temperatures back into the 30s.
As an upper trof pushes off to our east, clouds will decrease tonight from west to east. Along with lots of sunshine, temperatures will make it into the lower 30s over southwest Indiana, to near 40 degrees in the Ozark Foothills of Missouri. More significantly, lows Saturday night will be 10 to 12 degrees warmer than Friday night.
It's influence will peak this evening as it rotates through the base of a large scale trough over eastern North America. Surface ridging is expected to pass east over the area Saturday evening. However, a tight pressure gradient setting up between the departing ridge and low pressure crossing the Midwest will bring stirring later in the night for ridges and open terrain. Ridge/valley temperature differences should result. The large trough that supported a strong Nor'easter will be off to our northeast and will leave our area in northwest flow aloft.