Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
802 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
1109 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 A SERIES OF MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. L/W TROUGH BEGINS ITS AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE EASTERN U. WITH FREEZING LEVEL BETWEEN 8500-9500 FT. SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY UNDERNEATH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, BUT IN THE AFTERNOON, SOME SHOWERS MAY APPROACH THE TAF SITES BEFORE 00Z AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD.
AREAS SEEING DAYTIME CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS ARE THE LOCALES MOSTLY SEEING THE LOWER RANGE OF TEMPS. AIDED BY STRONG AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE WX INTO TUESDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE INTACT FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS AND A GENERAL WNW FLOW THRU THE MID LEVELS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S WEST THRU THE LOWER TO MID 40S EAST.
602 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016 FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE ON COLD FRONT. DRIER AIR MASS AND SOME DECREASE IN WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S MOST AREAS. RELATIVELY QUIET START TO THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED WITH UPPER TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS. WITH BLOCKING PATTERN.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH AXIS ROTATING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING.
/ISSUED 418 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/ A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE TO EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL KEEP DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE ARKLAMISS IN THE SHORT TERM. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY THAT COULD DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH IN WAKE OF A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PASSING EAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. A 500 MB TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY PUSH OUT THE LAST OF THE LOW CLDS OVER THE RGV ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLR SKIES TO PREVAIL WED AND WED NIGHT.
656 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016 A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY. ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT HAS LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT, MAINLY TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
1057 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016 THERE IS A NARROW RIBBON OF WARM ADVECTION RIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA BY THE EVENING AND THE RESULT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER TOMORROW.
A SHARP H5 TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. CUTTING OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN KY. AN ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE RAIN FALLS FROM THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER 8000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WE WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. ANOTHER NICE DAY IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. ESSENTIALLY ACTING AS A BLOCKING RIDGE BETWEEN THE EAST AND WEST COAST TROUGHS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL UNDERGO A SLOW WARMING TREND BENEATH THE RIDGE.
922 PM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND RESULT IN COOLING AND MORE CLOUDS WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE OVER NE FL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AS UPPER SHORT WAVE NOW OVER TX/OK PIVOTS SE INTO LA AIDING LIFT OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND NE FL AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. AND OVER NE FL IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. SW WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SE ACROSS THE WATERS.
As the eastern portion of the low moves onshore instability will increase in the afternoon and bring a change of showers and thunderstorms across the interior.
HAVE ADJUSTED THE LOWS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CWA AS DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP A BIT. THINK THAT AREAS IN THE SE MAY STAY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SW DURING THE DAY BEFORE BECOMING NW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
1132 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND PASS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
Surface pressure gradient between low pressure in SK and high pressure west of the continental divide will maintain breezy W to NW winds through this afternoon with temperatures near to just slightly below seasonal averages. High pressure builds in at the surface and aloft tonight through Sunday morning for clearing skies and diminishing winds.
353 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 A cold front will will push offshore tonight with scattered thunderstorms ahead of the front. High pressure will build in from the west on Sunday and will shift offshore Sunday night.
1236 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016 Over the next few hours, will be watching areas of showers and storms currently moving east-northeastward across portions of north central KS and south central NE along the nose of the low-level jet.
Synoptic Setup: A large high pressure heat dome lies over the southwestern quadrant of the CONUS while zonal flow runs through the Pacific Northwest, Montana, and southwest Canada. A closed low currently resides in the flow over southern Saskatchewan. Today through Tonight: The closed low to the north is currently moving off to the east and allowing some wrap around precipitation to drop south. A pressure gradient has also formed behind the low and when combined with the daytime mixing has allowed for wind gusts that are a little bit higher than predicted.
The dew pts have managed to mix out a little/or more into the lower 70s range across much of the local area. Once the rain ends, temps overnight look to fall more into the lower/mid 70s for most of the cntrl TN Valley. Afternoon highs are again xpcted to be in the lower/mid 90s range, although precip coverage may be a tad higher on Sun again in a weakly sheared environment. With an upper ridge/weak steering flow pattern dominating the wx pic from the Desert SW into the cntrl Gulf region, the only feature the latest model suites are hinting at impacting the area may be a weak frontal boundary out of the OH Valley/Mid Atlantic states dropping into the region around the start of the new work week.
A broad ridge of high pressure remains in place across much of the country, with a hot and humid airmass across central Indiana. This heat will last through tomorrow, before a cold front approaches the area and allows a slight cool down back toward seasonal normals and brings slightly higher thunderstorm chances to the region.
That leaves the SD/NE cold front to try and generate something. Otherwise, will track the cold front into the CWA Sunday morning.
410 PM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016 Current surface map shows cold front for Sunday/Sunday night outside of the Black Hillsmoving through central South Dakota. High pressure builds into the western Dakotas overnight.
Similar conditions are expected tomorrow with the mid to upper ridge axis remaining overhead. A cold front, however, will start to nudge into southwest KS during the late afternoon and early evening hours.
210 PM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016 Current surface map shows cold front for Sunday/Sunday night outside of the Black Hillsmoving through central South Dakota. High pressure builds into the western Dakotas overnight.
408 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 Upper level ridge will allow for continued hot and humid conditions through the weekend.
A warm front across the far southern part of the forecast area will produce at least scattered storms as it lifts northeast during the late afternoon and early evening, but extensive high clouds and an east southeast surface wind is holding temperatures down north of the front and will probably limit severe potential. An upper trough moving across Minnesota should produce a thunderstorm complex that moves across the forecast area during the middle to late evening hours. A weak cold front will move through Sunday by midday. There is not much cool air behind but more of a lowering of dewpoints, which will make it feel a bit cooler by Sunday evening. Quiet weather for the start of the work week as ridging builds in for a respite from the convection.
Vis imagery does show a CU field over San Angelo's CWA progressing west in the low/mid level flow. With the subtropical ridge centered over the Texas Panhandle southwest into Southeast New Mexico there is subsidence over the CWA.
Temperatures were generally in the 70s across the CWA, kept cooler by abundant cloud cover and advancing precipitation. The Northland will find itself Sunday in the wake of tonight's cold front, with warm, but drier, gusty westerly flow through the day. A passing upper level trough will provide the synoptic lift to develop widespread scattered/broken cumulus, as well as scattered showers and isolated weak storms across Northern Minnesota.
An upper ridge extending eastward from the desert southwest to the mid atlantic states will remain intact over the next 24 hours.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
This lowers confidence in meeting our heat criteria but some moisture pooling along the sagging front may help drive heat indices over the century mark.
Expect the former impulse to track across the Canadian Prairie Provinces late today and tonight, effectively flattening the antecedent mid-level ridge over the north-central states. Meanwhile, an associated cold front stretching from the central Dakotas through north-central into southwest Nebraska as of 20z will advance southeast through much of the mid Missouri Valley tonight, with this feature eventually clearing our southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa counties Sunday morning. The increased clouds and slightly cooler, post-frontal air mass should yield highs largely in the mid 80s.
This secondary trough/front will bring significantly drier from western into central ND this afternoon/evening. Also strong thermal ridging still exists over the southern James River Valley which is likely impeding convection.
More cloud cover and precipitation coverage through the upcoming week will keep temperatures slightly cooler than what we have had this week, enough to keep out of heat products at this time. For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected with continued high pressure aloft.
For Sunday, it looks like mean layer moisture may be a little less than today and 850 mb temperatures slightly warmer, thus allowing for slightly higher maximum temperatures. Forecast for Sunday is mostly in the lower 90s with heat indices still around 100.
454 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 A cold front will move east of the region tonight. High pressure will cross the region Sunday.
208 PM PDT SAT JUL 23 2016 Mostly clear skies with above average temperatures are expected over the next several days as high pressure moves in from the east. Top of the ridge has been flattened off over the area as a trough of low pressure moves across the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile the nose of the ridge is seen pushing back to the west over Northern Baja California and this feature will continue to remain the dominant weather feature over Southern California for the next few days.
321 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016 A weak cold front was situated across northwestern Kansas early this afternoon.
The cold front which is supposed to initiate more afternoon convection is getting close to a KBIS to KMOT line. SPC meso analysis shows quite a bit of CIN across the FA in the wake of the current convection and the cooler worked over air. A cold front will move across the CWA this afternoon, reaching the RRV around mid afternoon and then into west central MN in the early evening. Heavy rainshowers are also expected with storms in this region with the high PWAT values.
A more westerly component to the low level flow and continued presence of the pronounced thermal ridge would support hotter temps than today. A cold front will begin moving into northeast MO and west central IL during the afternoon. The east-west oriented cold front will continue to sag southward on Sunday night in response to a short wave trof digging from the upper MS Valley into the western Great Lakes.
On Sunday a large mid and upper level ridge will remain over the south central portion of the U. Cool (-9C at 500MB) and dry mid level air may support a few strong storms with downburst winds and small hail the main hazards with the best rain chances likely setting up across central and southern interior zones along the east and west coast sea breeze merger late in the afternoon, with slightly lower rain chances further to the north and west where the driest air and subsident effects from the upper level low will exist.
128 PM PDT SAT JUL 23 2016 Weakening High pressure aloft and a strong coastal eddy will spread cooler weather inland through Sunday, along with more marine clouds and patchy fog. The surface pressure gradients were still weakly offshore from SW NV to KSAN and only 1-2 MBS onshore to the lower deserts, as the south winds along the coast gusted over 25 MPH in some places, cratering surface temperatures.
317 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016 Focus will be on the possibility of storms firing within the next few hours ahead of an advancing cold front. If storms do manage to increase to our north, these models suggest that thunderstorms may congeal into an MCS this evening, potentially impacting the highway 14 corridor, southwest Minnesota, and Iowa Great Lakes region through late evening. Cooler temperatures and lower dewpoints arrive behind the front, bringing a nice reprieve from the recent heat. Skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy on Sunday with cooler high temperatures in the 80s.
400 PM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016 So-called cold front dropping past Longmont and Greeley at this time. However there is only slight cooling aloft and the incoming air is cooler but still fairly dry at first.
Temperatures on Sunday will be slightly cooler with upslope surface winds.
However, it was noted outside the office earlier today that there had been little vertical development in the early cu growth thanks to a lingering subsident cap from the retreating ridge. Despite sufficient moisture and a retreating ridge, a weak vort max evident in water vapor imagery has not made its way into the area as quickly as expected this afternoon, which likely has made the difference in the amount of convection. The midlevel ridge should continue to retreat, while a vort max drifts westward out of the Mid-South, while the surface pattern remains relatively similar. Sunday should be similar to today then, albeit a touch cooler and with an expectation for better convective development.
Broad high pressure aloft extends across the Commonwealth thru the remainder of the weekend, with surface ridging underneath, effectively quashing all but isolated cells growth again tmrw and also providing another day of extreme heat/humidity. The High aloft retrogrades to the southwest U.
310 PM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016 Afternoon water vapor loop showed the CWA between a upper trough moving across the northern Rockies and another lifting northeast across the northern Great Plains/Upper Midwest.
/issued 913 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016/ Some slightly drier mid and upper level air has moved into the region this morning via 12Z raob and water vapor loop courtesy of an upper level low spinning offshore the Florida east coast. Slightly cooler temperatures aloft will help to steepen lapse rates.
Looking for a bit of a break in the action here between 3 and 5 pm, but focus then turns to incoming cold front later this evening along with another round of thunderstorms.
520 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 A cold front will will push offshore tonight with scattered thunderstorms ahead of the front. High pressure will build in from the west on Sunday and will shift offshore Sunday night.
541 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 A cold front will move east of the region tonight. High pressure will cross the region Sunday.
Slightly cooler temperatures for the inland areas on Sunday.
The upstream cold front has moved into central ND, with some gusty west-nw winds behind it. Main question remains whether any convection can fire between the departing convection over the NE FA and the eastward advancing cold front. Nice drying is evident on water vapor imagery moving into eastern ND, however there are some MVFR ceilings along the cold front. So there will be SCT-BKN clouds around until the cold front passes, then skies should clear.
Tonight Through Sunday cooler high pressure has moved over the area and will remain in place through Sunday. across the north and east a dry cold front will move south and west sunday with a wind shift to the northeast. with clear skies and very low dew points cooler lows are expected by sunrise.
The upper ridge finally shifts west allowing a slightly more active pattern to develop over the area as several upper level disturbances pass over the region.
248 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 Currently - Weak ridging across the Florida Peninsula is keeping light east to southeast breezes across the Florida Keys and surrounding waters. A mid and upper level low continues to move southwestward into South Florida, but weak ridging holds through the lowermost levels. Forecast - Weak ridging will hold across the Florida Peninsula over the next day or two, keeping winds light and mostly east to southeast. As the upper level low moves off away from the Florida Keys, stronger deep layered ridging will build westward across Florida.
Should be mainly dry Sunday, as the cold front moves through.
Current visible satellite shows a ridge axis across Kentucky, with slow flow of the cloud field pivoting around that axis roughly along a line from Beaver Dam to Elizabethtown to Richmond.
Strong high pressure will bring a significant warming trend into the coming week with temperatures approaching the triple digits across the interior. High pressure aloft will gradually build over the desert SW over the next few days, with high temperatures at many interior locations exceeding 100 degrees.
Cold front currently over the western Plains will push slowly eastward on Sunday. High temperatures will once again reach the lower to middle 90s. Cold front will sink into central Illinois Sunday night.
The upper ridge will remain the dominant weather feature the next 24 hours, with dry and hot conditions expected again on Sunday.
Surface cold front is well to the west currently extending from the Central Dakotas and through Western Nebraska and will not arrive to Northwest IA until late tonight. A capping inversion above the incoming cold front will limit convective potential associated with the boundary. It will remain warm and humid into this evening however, conditions by 7 pm will fall below criteria and cooler temperatures arriving on Sunday will allow for the expiration of the warning. /Sunday through Saturday/ Cold frontal boundary will be sliding through the central and southern CWA at the onset of the period in response to an upper level trough currently over the Pacific NW swinging through the northern plains.
With less energy and moisture available, coverage has been less than previous days with most activity over the higher terrain this afternoon. The drying trend continues on Sunday with isolated-scattered late-day showers and thunderstorms confined mainly to the higher terrain before diminishing during the early evening hours. The dry trend will continue through the workweek as a ridge of high pressure keeps the main plume of moisture to our south. With isolated-scattered late-day showers and thunderstorms confined to the higher terrain and across the south. Isolated-scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over the higher terrain will continue through the early evening hours.
Surface cold front is well to the west currently extending from the Central Dakotas and through Western Nebraska and will not arrive to Northwest IA until late tonight. A capping inversion above the incoming cold front will limit convective potential associated with the boundary. /Sunday through Saturday/ Cold frontal boundary will be sliding through the central and southern CWA at the onset of the period in response to an upper level trough currently over the Pacific NW swinging through the northern plains.
Strong upper ridge that has been dominating of late is showing some signs of breaking down. Latest moisture channel imagery shows an upper trough over the western high plains that is effectively flattening out this feature. Moisture channel imagery also shows an upper level disturbance along the Tennessee/Mississippi border, on the eastern periphery of the ridge, which is helping to enhance the convection.
The rather stagnant pattern will continue over the area as we remain under the broad upper ridge. As we begin the period on Sunday night high pressure still over the area but not near as amplified as in previous days.
/issued 309 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016/ 500 mb ridge will dominate the plains next several days with no significant boundaries in the region until perhaps late in the weekend.
Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid 70s inland and in the upper 70s to around 80 near the coast.
VFR conditions will prevail beneath high pressure aloft. and this potential will also likely trend down by late week as the upper high is centered nearly overhead.
A ridge axis of high pressure over the WRN Atlantic will remain north of the area with a deep easterly flow across the region.
736 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front will track southeast across the area late this afternoon into this evening.
813 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2016 A cold front has moved into northern New York and will continue moving eastward tonight.
821 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 A cold front crosses the Tri-State tonight, followed by high pressure building in from the west through Tuesday night.
1156 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 A cold front will pass through the area overnight.
830 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 A cold front will pass through the area overnight.
842 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2016 Below average temperatures continue into mid-week as a low pressure system moves across the Pacific Northwest.
High pressure over the southern plains with an upper level trough settling into the Pacific Northwest will leave the Great Basin under a southwest flow through much of the week, with deep moisture over southern and eastern Utah. An upper low currently off the PacNW coast will weaken and start ejecting across far northern Idaho and the Canadian Rockies tonight into tomorrow. This will flatten the ridge a bit and nudge it east from its current position over the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles.
1118 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016 Early afternoon water vapor imagery and 12z upper-air analysis indicate building mid-level heights from the central High Plains into the lee of the Canadian Rockies, downstream from an upper low over the northeast Pacific. In the low levels, weak warm advection atop a composite boundary (combination of outflow and the synoptic front) has maintained regenerative thunderstorm development over portions of east-central and southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa. Current thinking is that low-level flow will become increasingly divergent late this afternoon into evening owing to the continued deepening of a lee trough over the High Plains, potentially signaling an end to this convective activity.