Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE REGION AS TWO WEAK SW FLOW IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE REGION. BEFORE THE PAC NW UPPER TROUGH FINALLY EJECTS EAST AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER SCENTRAL SD. BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDS EXPECTED MOST OTHER PLACES. MAIN LOBE OF LSA AND DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL BE CONFINED WITH THE PAC NW UPPER TROUGH.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS ITS HOLD OVER THE REGION. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS UNDER A FAIRLY BROAD RIDGE. WITH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE THE WEST COAST. AS WEAKNESSES MOVE AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHEAST. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST.
/issued 255 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/ The upper ridge will remain over the region even though an upper trough digs across the NW part of the country the next few days. The best it will be able to do is flatten out the top of the ridge as it moves east. Still getting lots of high clouds streaming over the area as Pacific moisture gets pulled around the west side of the ridge.
/ISSUED 248 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015/ A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AFFECTING FLORIDA THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S AT THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND.
625 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015 SPRAWLING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY. LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. THE ONLY POTENTIAL FLY-IN-THE-OINTMENT WILL BE AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IS NOTED ROTATING AROUND THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN. UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE A COMBINATION OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ALONG WITH OUTFLOW FROM PRECIPITATION. UPPER LOW ALONG THE WA COAST AT 09Z STILL MOVING SOUTH. COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIR FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS IN THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO ONLY THE MID 60S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS.
RESULTED IN SLIGHT BUMP UP FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WE CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG RIDGE. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND GIVEN PERSISTENT LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. SATURDAY MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUN/MON GIVEN LINGERING EFFECTS OF WEAK UPPER LOW BUT DIFFERENCES LIKELY NEGLIGIBLE.
1250 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
652 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015 QUIET AND COOL WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS RETURNING TO THE SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS EARLY MORNING. O/W TODAY WILL FEATURE SOME HIGH CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTHEAST AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS A BIT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. LOOK FOR WARMER TEMPS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S MOST AREAS.
/ISSUED 421 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015/ (Today and Tonight) A closed upper low will continue to move southwest away from the area through tonight. At the surface, a weak cold front is currently moving south across Oklahoma and will enter the far northern counties of the Big Country by late morning and then stall around the I-20 corridor this afternoon. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible today in association with the front and also from some remaining influence of the departing upper low. High temperatures today will generally be in the lower to middle 80s, with some upper 70s across far southwest sections where more extensive cloud cover is expected. Low temperatures tonight will be mainly in the lower 60s.
MARKING THE LEADING EDGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT. FRONT RANGE RIDGE TOPS AND UPPER FOOTHILLS MAY ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF GUSTY W-NWLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AFTER PASSAGE OF THIS PERTABATION. DRYING AND WARMING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST-SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO EXERT ITSELF ON THESE PARTS. ANOTHER SIGN OF MUCH WARMER WEATHER AHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER COLORADO AS TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TODAY WILL BE A HOT DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
For now have kept temperatures in the lower 60s for afternoon highs. A cold front moved through the region overnight bringing with it some showers and thunderstorms that eastern Kansas and Missouri had not seen in a number of weeks. The front will continue to settle south today allowing some cooler temperatures to filter south, resulting in highs in the 60s today. However, despite the time of year the cooler temperatures wont hang around long as above normal readings will quickly return this weekend.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE IS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. A VERY SUBTLE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. A VERY SUBTLE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
613 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE USHERED INTO THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS REMAINED NEAR 10 KTS OVERNIGHT AS THE COOLER. ASSOCIATED WITH THE CAA WAS HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS WARMER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. AND AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT. FAVOR THE DEEPER MIXING AND WARMER TEMPS OF GFS /MAV GUIDANCE/ GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS.
LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO IS PROVIDING A LINE OF MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER MEXICO MOVING EAST. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY BEFORE SUBSIDENCE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE 500MB LOW ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO MOVES WESTWARD AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. A 500MB TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALSO HELP AMPLIFY THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS INDIANA THIS MORNING AND DEPART THIS AFTERNOON. COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
1207 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN AND RETURN FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. TIMING REMAINS CONSISTENT AMONGST ALL GUIDANCE WITH COLD FRONT PASSING THRU UNV BY 18Z AND LNS BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. BRINGING WARMER AIR BACK IN WITH READINGS BY MON BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALL DEPICT A LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION TOWARD AND ERN CONUS TROUGH WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LATER TODAY A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PUSH OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
LATEST METARS SHOW THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM PARIS TENNESSEE. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
With surface temperatures in the low/mid 80s, MLCAPE values are progged to increase to 500-1000 J/kg. /ISSUED 421 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015/ (Today and Tonight) A closed upper low will continue to move southwest away from the area through tonight. At the surface, a weak cold front is currently moving south across Oklahoma and will enter the far northern counties of the Big Country by late morning and then stall around the I-20 corridor this afternoon. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible today in association with the front and also from some remaining influence of the departing upper low. High temperatures today will generally be in the lower to middle 80s, with some upper 70s across far southwest sections where more extensive cloud cover is expected. Low temperatures tonight will be mainly in the lower 60s.
1037 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE WITH A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH FL WILL KEEP THE E/NE FLOW OVER THE AREA TODAY.
RAIN CHANCES APPEAR FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY BEFORE SUBSIDENCE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE 500MB LOW ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO MOVES WESTWARD AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. A 500MB TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALSO HELP AMPLIFY THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA.
A VERY RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND MAINLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM FROM GREAT LAKES TO KANSAS AND OUR OLD PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH OF ARIZONA YIELDING A SOUTHWEST MOIST/CLOUDY FLOW FROM TEXAS TO ALABAMA. UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO PULL BACK WEST AND ALLOW THE WAVE/TROUGH IN THE NORTH STREAM TO DIVE SOUTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SATURDAY. POSITIVELY TILTED WAVE WILL PRESS SOUTHEAST WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT AND MOISTURE AXIS APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS A BATTLE BETWEEN LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WITH AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE WEST. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING TONIGHT SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDERNEATH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. CONTINUED TREND OF GOING COOLER THAN MOS WITH TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL SINK SOUTH ON SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGHS BACK TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
1034 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.
THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AND THE MAIN MID/UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO TO SHIFT FARTHER WEST AS WELL. WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
1203 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING SHOWERS.
515 AM MDT FRI OCT 9 2015 BENIGN AND WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AND BEYOND. A TILTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM OFF THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS AROUND THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE AND ACROSS WYOMING DURING THE DAY. THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH MIDDAY SAT FOR MORE OF THE SAME WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
PACIFIC MOISTURE PUSHING OVER RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL KEEP A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA TODAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH DOWNSLOPING OFF HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES PUSH INTO THE LOWER 80S IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER ALL AGREE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO EXTREME NORTH GA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. THE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE QUICK TO LEAVE AS THE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW AND HANGS AROUND THE GA COAST ON SATURDAY. AND SLIGHT COOLER ON SATURDAY.
904 AM MDT FRI OCT 9 2015 PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT THIS MORNING AS LATEST MOISTURE PLUME MOVES ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE WA/OR/ID BORDER.
625 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015 WILL SEE CHANCES FOR SHRA AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TSRA TODAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE.
1145 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015 HYDRO A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE STATE OF MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH ALL OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ENDING OVERNIGHT. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FEELING MORE FALL LIKE.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE STATE.
Water Vapor imagery and GOES High Density Winds shows the upper low spinning in the Central Gulf of California/Sea of Cortez. The upper low will continue to retrograde across central Baja California and into the Pacific today and tonight. Saturday will be warmer with a few thunderstorms over the Davis Mtns in the moist low level upslope flow. as the upper low meanders west of Baja California.
1026 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
THE BIGGER FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY JUST NW OF MEMPHIS NEAR THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. RAIN SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO GENERATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY RIGHT ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. 16 A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE STATE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
1000 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS INDIANA THIS MORNING AND DEPART THIS AFTERNOON. COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
MORE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CLOVER WILL TRANSIT OUR SKIES TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS FLATTENED ALLOWING CLOUD COVER GENERATED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES TO STEADILY STREAM IN.
CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS THE W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST AND ENCOUNTERS HIGHER CIN VALUES AND MOVES AWAY FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW. INSTABILITY AND AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE E ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO A SFC TROF AND CONTINUED UPPER DIFFLUENCE SHOULD PRODUCE SCT CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN COASTAL BEND. RAIN CHCS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. AND THE MAIN MID/UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO TO SHIFT FARTHER WEST AS WELL. WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
1040 AM MDT FRI OCT 9 2015 BENIGN AND WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AND BEYOND. A TILTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM OFF THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS AROUND THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE AND ACROSS WYOMING DURING THE DAY. THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH MIDDAY SAT FOR MORE OF THE SAME WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
THIS RAINFALL IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH OVERNIGHT PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE.
612 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015 AREA CONTINUES TO BE DOWNSTREAM OF LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST U. SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN FLOW GENERATING JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT WITH STRATUS FIELD ACROSS MUCH OF THE THREE STATE AREA. MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE TRACKING FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. MEAN UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE SAME UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR WEATHER OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL WORK INTO A POSITION TO APPROACH THE AREA AGAIN FROM THE WEST. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE FLOW AROUND THIS LOW. IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES HAS RESULTED IN STRONG EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW AS DEPICTED ON THE 12Z KTUS SOUNDING.
PATCHY FOG IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION, HOWEVER THE LOWEST VIS IS OCCURRING ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA THIS MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT AND VRB WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING NW AT ALL TERMINALS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. /ISSUED 426 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015/ LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THOUGH A WEAK INVERTED SFC TROF CONTINUES FROM NE LA SOUTHWEST INTO SE TX. LOWS WILL ONLY BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
930 AM MST FRI OCT 9 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING WESTWARD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) The cold front will move south of the area early today as an upper trough currently stretching from the upper Midwest to the Central Plains will move through Missouri and Illinois by 00Z. Ascent from the trough and low level moisture convergence will be enough to cause scattered showers over the southern half of the CWA through this morning.
623 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015 The cold front that has been advertised for the past several days has made its way to the Arkansas state line already this morning. As the front moves through the area, a cooler air mass will follow with afternoon highs today only climbing into the middle 60s to near 70.
EXPECT THIS TO BURN OFF DURING THE MORNING WITH A WARMER AND DRY DAY ACROSS THE CWA.
1029 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015 A COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER-TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 79 63 74 52 / 70 70 20 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 78 61 72 50 / 70 90 20 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 76 61 71 49 / 80 80 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 76 59 70 46 / 80 90 30 10.
1029 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS INDIANA THIS MORNING AND DEPART THIS AFTERNOON. COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPING ACROSS THESE AREAS IN THE HIGHER MOISTURE AXIS AHEAD OF THE FRONT (ALREADY SEEING A FEW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL MS). MORE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CLOVER WILL TRANSIT OUR SKIES TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS FLATTENED ALLOWING CLOUD COVER GENERATED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES TO STEADILY STREAM IN.
916 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015 THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
WHILE A TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONSUME MOST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEFORE SLIDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THIS FLOW WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A MEANDERING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST COAST. EXPECT MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO TRAVERSE THE PLAINS WITH AN OCCASIONAL COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY.
748 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015 THE APEX OF THE 500MB TROUGH HAS SHIFTED OVER E UPPER MI. FARTHER E UNDER MORE OF AN INFLUENCE OF THE EXITING RIDGE. NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE U. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS 12Z SUN WITH THE TROUGH MOVING TO THE EAST COAST 12Z SUN.
AS EXPECTED STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT EARLIER TODAY CREATED A LAYER OF THICK LOW LEVEL STRATUS THAT IS CURRENTLY ADVANCING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AT 06Z. ITS LIKELY THAT THE DECK WILL BEGIN TO LESSEN BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO ADVANCE EAST AND CYCLONIC CURVATURE AT H700 GRADUALLY YIELDS TO ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
952 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
Upper trough axis was moving into eastern Kansas from the northwest early this morning, with regional radar and surface observations putting cold front through northern Oklahoma at 08Z. Bands of showers wear ahead of the trough, with measurable amounts on the northwest edge hard to come by.
AND RAIN CHANCES STILL ON TRACK TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER ALL AGREE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO EXTREME NORTH GA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. THE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE QUICK TO LEAVE AS THE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW AND HANGS AROUND THE GA COAST ON SATURDAY. AND SLIGHT COOLER ON SATURDAY.
/ISSUED 625 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015/ WILL SEE CHANCES FOR SHRA AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TSRA TODAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE.
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM WORKS TOWARDS THE COAST. INVERSIONS HAVE DEVELOPED UNDER THIS RIDGE AFFECTING LOCATIONS BELOW 3000 FT MSL. AREAS THAT STAY FOGGY/CLOUDY LONGER COULD BE EVEN COOLER, WHILE OTHERS THAT BURN OFF QUICKLY COULD BE CLOSER TO THE ORIGINAL FORECAST.
A FEW MORE CLOUDS THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH THE HIGH MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH TODAY.
926 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. UPPER TROF WILL DRIVE A SFC COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT, REACHING SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS BY AROUND DAYBREAK. CLOUDS AND MIXING WILL TEND TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE. SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS AREA FROM NW EARLY SAT MORNING. THEN STALLING OFFSHORE DURING AFTN WITH MODELS INDICATING WDSPRD OVERRUNNING PCPN ACROSS ERN NC AS SRN END OF UPR TROF BEGINS TO CUTOFF OVER GA/SC. COULD EVEN SEE SOME FALLING TEMPS DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRES RIDGES ACROSS N OF AREA.
THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE HEAVY RAIN PATTERN INTO THE AREA HAS SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DIRECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND SHOULD HAVE A RAPID DECREASE IN INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA. LATE IN THE DAY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE DESPITE A MODELS SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL TX. AND WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS SATURDAY THANKS TO THE DECREASE IN CLOUDS OVER TODAY.
SO, WILL HAVE TO TREND MAX TEMP FORECAST UP ONCE AGAIN, AND PUSH THE WARMER PRE-FRONTAL TEMPS FURTHER NORTH OVER THE ENTIRE FA THIS TIME.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WHILE GRADUALLY FLATTENING IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACNW SATURDAY.
1102 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015 THE APEX OF THE 500MB TROUGH HAS SHIFTED OVER E UPPER MI. FARTHER E UNDER MORE OF AN INFLUENCE OF THE EXITING RIDGE. NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE U. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS 12Z SUN WITH THE TROUGH MOVING TO THE EAST COAST 12Z SUN.
740 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
AS BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE SINKS SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY BELIEVE SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD, ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TODAY AS AN ELONGATED POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A CUTOFF UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER SOUTHERN SONORA. DEPARTING UPPER LOW SLIDING SOUTHWEST WILL DRASTICALLY DECREASE DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT.