Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures are in the 60s at most locations east of the Mississippi River behind a warm front that has lifted through much of the region. Latest H5 analysis depicts a closed upper low now centered roughly over Kansas, with an upper ridge of high pressure just to the east of the local area. The upper trough will swing across the region overnight, with showers and thunderstorms coming to an end overnight with lows ranging from the upper 40s to upper 50s. Southwest flow aloft will continue over the region as another upper low swings across the Plains states.
247 AM MST Fri Jan 20 2017 Water vapor shows large upper trof along the west coast, with lead short wave ejecting through the Four Corners. At the sfc, trof is located over cntrl SD with weak cdfnt shifting east of the nrn/cntrl Rockies. Temps will be cooler than yesterday, but still a few degrees above average.
This evening a warm front will lift north across the CWA as a southwesterly LLJ noses into the area.
We end up in a bit of a lull today as weak upper ridging develops over the region in response to the next short wave digging into the plains.
Mid-evening update to revamp the drizzle/freezing drizzle wording to just drizzle wording and to adjust the overnight low temperatures to above freezing for much of the clouded over and foggy portions of the cwa. This will work to keep temperatures from falling below freezing for much of the cwa that has very low clouds over it while ensuring the dewpoint either holds steady or gradually increases overnight as well. Areas where it is going to be foggy overnight and the temperature remains below freezing will get to experience freezing fog, where everything receives a coating of frost. With two weak upper waves transitioning over eastern SD/western MN, precipitation type still remains difficult to resolve, no less complicated by temperatures above freezing but ground temperatures in the mid/upper 20s.
A warm front moved north across the area earlier today with a weakening stationary front in central MS. The upper low will continue to swing to the northeast which will help push the precip out of the local area. Could see areas of patchy dense fog with visibilities less than 1/2 mile but also clouds around 600ft which could obscure parts of the higher terrain.
Solid area of showers was lifting northeast across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes overnight along and north of a warm front that extended from southeastern Illinois to the Smokies to the Atlantic Ocean. Aloft, a negatively-tilted trough was pivoting northeast across the Missouri and Tennessee Valleys. Models in good agreement that the upper trough will lift northeast into the lower Great Lakes this afternoon as the warm front moves to northern Indiana. Areas of fog will dissipate behind the warm front this afternoon. With thick clouds and mild low level thermal progs, will go warmer than MOS blend with overnight temperatures only dropping to the upper 40s to lower 50s.
The next trough, now across the west coast quickly moves across the Rockies and onto the Plains later on Friday. Temps remain above freezing.
A frontal boundary has washed out across the region over the past day, however a somewhat cooler air mass has mixed in.
Unseasonably Mild Areas of dense fog will continue through early morning especially for areas across central Missouri and the higher elevations of the Ozark Plateau. Temperatures will be about 15 degrees warmer than average.
241 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017 A warm front in the forecast area this morning will lift north of the area this afternoon.
133 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017 Unseasonably warm temperatures overnight with lows only falling into the lower and middle 40s. Another week and our average highs start climbing back into the lower 40s! CVKING Widespread dense fog blankets the region this morning and much of the short term model guidance along with climatology suggest that visibility will not improve until 16Z, so have extended the Dense Fog Advisory through 10 a.
Given the super-saturated atmosphere, weak wind fields and lift ahead of the warm front, will have to issue a Dense Fog Advisory for late this afternoon and most of the night for Southeast Missouri. Depending on the progress of the warm front northward by daybreak on Friday, part of the Advisory in Southeast Missouri may be cancelled earlier. As the warm front spreads east late tonight and Friday, most of the precipitation should cut off.
An upper trough will pass across the region today with the bulk of its energy passing south across Colorado.
/issued 335 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/ A longwave trough over the western U.
Meanwhile, low clouds along with light rain have been spreading northward across eastern Iowa within region of enhanced low- level moisture transport ahead of an upper low slowly lifting northeastward out of the central Plains. While most areas are expected to be above freezing, areas north of I-94 stand the best chance for some freezing rain/icy roads with temps near freezing and cold roads. Have issued a Freezing Rain Advisory this evening into Friday morning for Clark/Taylor counties to account for this. The strongest mid-level forcing/Q vector convergence will shift from Iowa into northwestern WI bringing some light rain into the region, with boundary layer temps largely above freezing.
The energy rotating around the base of the broad trough covering the western 2/3rds of the U.
Not quite as mild in the wake of a weak cold frontal passage and with more cloud cover in the form of mostly cloudy skies.
255 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017 Early this morning one mid-level trough was lifting northeast out of the area with water vapor imagery showing the next disturbance centered over eastern Colorado. Ahead of this warm front, plenty of low-level moisture was present across the region with satellite imagery showing the entire CWA blanketed under low stratus. While there is still some model uncertainty with when exactly this low-level moisture will diminish today, short-range model soundings have been trending toward this moisture lingering over the area through much of the day before the warm front begins to lift northward over the area. With some lift noted with the low-level moisture in model soundings, expect periods of drizzle to persist through much of the day, particularly across north central to northeast KS.
First, it will take some time to moisten the lower layers of the atmosphere as the air is very dry from the surface up to around 10kft. Second, most of the good upper level support is streaming northwestward toward the main upper low, which will reach the northern plain/upper midwest by dawn. And lastly, the oncoming moisture/precipitation will encounter a rather strong ridge, which will begrudgingly drift eastward as dawn approaches. A tilted and elongated trough will swing through the area this morning. The associated surface warm front will swing through in the same direction just ahead of the aforementioned upper level system. Once the lower atmosphere saturates, showers will overspread the area from southwest to northeast.
Thankfully the temperatures will be above freezing with the warm cloud blanket and thus we will not have to worry about anything freezing. This will allow some locations to cool down below freezing, but any cool down below freezing will likely not occur until after we see precipitation end.
For the rest of today, some the guidance is cooler (ARW) versus others (NAM). With the fog and stratus lingering, opted for the cooler solution. The highest pops are in the northwest zones, and this still looks on track. Yet another trof is progged to move across the Southern Plains over the weekend.
354 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017 A negatively tilting upper-trough over the central Plains has pushed a weak cold front and a broad area of moderate to locally heavy showers over the eastern Tennessee Valley. Drier air will quickly shift into the region today as an upper- level ridge axis shifts into the area by midday. A partly cloudy sky will linger through the evening and most of the night, before another round of clouds increase late tonight ahead of an approaching warm front from the SW.
A weak mid to upper level low will continue to wander northward through the Central Plains, bringing a persistent source of low-level moisture and lighter mild southerly winds into the area. Soundings continue to show a very strong inversion in the low levels; a wealth of moisture at low-levels capped by a very warm and dry layer aloft. Currently, the lowest visibilities exist along the upslope side of the Buffalo Ridge, but these low visibilities should become more widespread in short order this evening. The low level moisture will deepen over the nighttime hours, along with a decent lift provided by the weak trough moving into the region. Although the low level moisture layer will be increasing tonight, dry air at mid levels will keep the precipitation risk as drizzle.
340 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017 In the short term concerns continue to be dense fog and the potential for freezing drizzle as the low levels are saturated with relatively dry air aloft. Surface temperatures a few degrees above freezing in the James River Valley will also complicate the drizzle/freezing drizzle forecast this morning. The Metro model at Medina mp 231 on I-94 keeps the road surface below freezing through 9 am CST so the potential for drizzle may be east of this area and freezing drizzle west.
High clouds are on the increase ahead of the next trough currently crossing the Sierra Nevada mountain range into the Intermountain West. The western trough will continue to move east at a good clip and trough axis will move over the area through the day Friday. The passage of the trough will also bring a weak pacific front across the area that will bring high temperatures down a few degrees from today.
Mixing due to winds will bring more mild conditions tonight with lows in the lower to mid 40s. Winds will become breezy again mid morning Friday with highs in the lower 70s.
As mentioned above, this low will bring in another reinforcing shot of moisture. Confidence in precip is high, especially after 00z Sat as a well-defined warm front will serve as a focusing mechanism for ascent.
Stars early and now clouds perhaps redeveloping in the lower levels with our sounding near saturation at 2.
Patchy fog has been developing in the lower Basin, Gorge and Kittitas valley this evening. Areas of dense fog and freezing fog are persisting across the Yakima valley and have issued a freezing fog advisory into Friday morning.
Some breaks in the low deck were noted over the past couple of hours and a few stations in central OK have seen a rapid deterioration in the past hour.
A tilted and elongated trough will swing through the area this morning. The associated surface warm front will move through in the same direction, just ahead of the aforementioned upper level system.
Dense Fog has formed in the Lower Treasure Valley, Upper Weiser Basin and Baker Valley this evening and will persist through the late Friday morning. A Dense fog advisory will be issues shortly for the Lower Treasure Valley and Upper Weiser Basin. High and mid clouds remain across much of the area which have kept temperatures near freezing this evening. In addition, satellite showing more clouds moving into se Oregon this evening ahead of a weak upper level trough will likely keep temperatures warmer than previously forecast.
roughly west of I-57 as short term models indicate visibility improving around this time as daytime warming and southerly flow taking shape behind a warm front crossing the area. Mild lows tonight with the southerly flow behind the warm front only mid to upper 40s in general.
max and subtle sfc-850mb west-to-east oriented trough axis progged to work northward through the region late this afternoon into tonight.
Did have to tweak the forecast some to lower some extreme snow amounts over the some of the higher peaks but overall the spirit of the forecast remains unchanged for the passage of the systems tonight and again for early weekend period. Some concern about the Aspen areas in this pattern but the top of the Elks should do quite will and the instability should allow some snow to spread downstream of the main ridgelines. Lastly the low confidence area is usually the far northern mountains in southwest flow.
842 PM PDT WED MAY 4 2016 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE PACIFIC AND RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER THURSDAY WITH SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES. A FEW OF THE HIGH RES MODELS AS WELL AS THE ECMWF AND NAM HINT AT THIS ALSO.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY.
INITIAL COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE MOVED INTO THE AREA WITH A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE REGION. REINFORCING THE COOLER/DRIER AIR. COOL TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST AND A FEW LOWER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MIDDLE 70S AT THE COAST.
LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND SOME APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY HAS HELPED TO PRODUCE INSTANCES OF SMALL HAIL AND SOME MINOR WIND DMG ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER IN AND IS MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD. AS UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES/THEN MOVES ACROSS UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH/PASSAGE WILL SUPPORT MVFR BKN STRATO CU CEILINGS 05/12Z-06/03Z. AND STRONG CANADIAN BASED HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS TO OUR N ALONG WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES BUILD TO OUR W ACROSS CNTRL PLAINS. SFC WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE THRU 06/03Z-06/06Z AS RIDGING INFLUENCES BUILD ACROSS INTO MID STATE REGION.
757 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH NC FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
645 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER NE MN THIS EVENING AND NW WI OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE SE THURSDAY AND ALLOWS FORM A WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT KEEPING CHANCES FOR RAIN AROUND.
1240 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERS OVER THE REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S BUT WILL BE COLDER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
809 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016 IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ADVANCING INTO TEXAS FROM THE WEST.
INCREASING THICKNESS WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW 80S GENERALLY WEST OF I-135 THURSDAY.
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION EARLY. THEN AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE IN.
QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS VERY SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY THEN A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP UP OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE A BIT THERE DURING THE DAY.
519 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016 QUIET PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE DURING FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN WEATHER CHANGE AS A RESULT WILL BE A STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TOMORROW WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20 KTS BY MIDDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM ANOTHER 3-4 C.
/issued 155 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/ Upper ridging will continue to build east over the region today and tomorrow, resulting in warming temperatures and sunny skies. Another beautiful day expected tomorrow with highs a few degrees warmer than today due to the return of south winds.
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM MONTANA WILL SEE THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING TO THE EAST.
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY.
Deep upper low digging towards the Southern Appalachians this evening will push a cold front across the forecast area overnight. Large-scale guidance indicates that the forcing associated with the upper low and front will weaken through the evening hours, with the line of showers weakening as well.
950 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH NC FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE TREASURE STATE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN THE LOW 60S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
Low pressure area along the coast will continue to keep unstable conditions over the interior overnight. On Thursday the center of the low will be along the central coast to provide continued instability over the interior and another day of showers and thunderstorms. The low will begin to drift southward Thursday night.
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT ITSELF IS LAGGING BEHIND THAT LINE OF SHOWERS, CURRENTLY BEING BEING ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND MOVING INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA. MID 40S CAN NOW BE EXPECTED NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.
959 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND EXTEND A RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
1000 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016 WX MAP SHOWS COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER TX THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. SINKING AIR FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROF TO THE EAST IS THE REASON FOR OUR CLEAR SKIES. A DRY COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH ARKANSAS ATTM WILL DROP DOWN IN LA/TX TOWARDS MIDNIGHT MAKING THE COAST BEFORE SUNRISE.
948 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED IN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
/ISSUED 1000 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/ WX MAP SHOWS COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER TX THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. SINKING AIR FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROF TO THE EAST IS THE REASON FOR OUR CLEAR SKIES. A DRY COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH ARKANSAS ATTM WILL DROP DOWN IN LA/TX TOWARDS MIDNIGHT MAKING THE COAST BEFORE SUNRISE.
CLOUDS LOOK TO FILL BACK IN AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES IN FROM INDIANA. SPARKED FROM AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER LIGHTNING IS SHOWING UP WITH SOME OF THE STORMS FURTHER WEST NEAR AND ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE MI INTO KY. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING SE OF KY ON THURSDAY. WITH THE COLD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY.
A pronounced synoptic scale ridge was entering across the Rockies today, yielding widespread clear skies. Any deep tropospheric westerly momentum across the Rockies will hold off until after the Short Term period, which means a continuation of fairly light winds given the absence of a lee side trough. Lower tropospheric temperatures will slowly rise with the approach of the upper level ridge, with highs Thursday in the 81 to 85F range for just about the entire west central, southwest, and south central Kansas region.
/ISSUED 333 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/ THE SHARP UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT ALREADY HAS BEEN DOMINATING OUR WEATHER TODAY WITH DRY SUBSIDENT FORCING WILL EDGE EAST TO ALONG OUR WESTERN BORDER BY LATE ON THURSDAY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THAT THIS UPPER LOW WILL MAKE SLOW AND STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE WEEK INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND BEFORE PORTIONS OF IT BEGIN EJECTING OUT INTO THE PLAINS.
734 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 40S TONIGHT.
Upper level low center seen in IR imagery over southwest MI will drop slowly to the south overnight, with weak upper wave rotating around it. The closed 500 mb upper low will be located over northern Kentucky by tomorrow morning with our area still under some decent low and mid level cyclonic flow, at least through early afternoon.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE LAKE.
1156 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016 FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE MINIMAL AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WITH HIGHS TAPPING INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY.
SINKING AIR FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROF TO THE EAST IS THE REASON FOR OUR CLEAR SKIES. A DRY COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH ARKANSAS ATTM WILL DROP DOWN IN LA/TX TOWARDS MIDNIGHT MAKING THE COAST BEFORE SUNRISE.
THERE IS ALSO A BIT OF CIRRUS COMING UP AND OVER THE UPPER RIDGE THOSE AXIS IS CENTERED. THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER COLORADO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S.
STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE VERY HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS FREEZING LEVELS FALL OVERNIGHT. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 46 62 49 72 / 50 20 10 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 44 57 47 68 / 80 50 30 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 44 58 47 69 / 80 50 30 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 42 55 45 61 / 90 70 60 30.
605 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016 THE AXIS OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVERHEAD TODAY FOR WARM TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES. A FEW FLAT CUMULUS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST AS THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CA COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN TONIGHT'S DUE TO THE WARM DAYTIME HIGHS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND THEN PASSES OVER THE AREA.
The light precip on radar should move south in tandem with the upper low, passing across southwest IN and the Wabash Valley overnight. However, an unusually deep mid/upper level low dropping directly south from the Great Lakes region will keep things rather cloudy and cool in areas east of the MS River on Thursday.
616 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016 UPPER RIDGING FROM THE ROCKIES ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DRY AND MILD WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR REGION. ALOFT AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WAS SETTING UP ACROSS THE CONUS WITH UPPER LOWS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH RIDGING FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY WITH WINDS TRANSITIONING SOUTHERLY. EVEN WARMER HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY AS THE AIRMASS WARMS ROUGHLY 3C AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD AND HIGHS SHLD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SHOULD BE SITUATED OVER THE MIDDLE CENTER OF THE CONUS WITH THE AXIS CENTERED FROM THE MT/NDAK BORDER TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE RIDGE WILL BE BOUNDED BY A COUPLE OF CLOSED LOWS.
STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER S GREAT LAKES IN PROCESS OF PUSHING SOUTH INTO OH VALLEY AT AFD ISSUANCE / WHICH WILL HELP SET UP A TEXTBOOK EXAMPLE OF AN OMEGA BLOCK BY 12Z THURS/. SEVERAL POTENT VORT MAXES WITHIN THE LOW WILL ROTATE INTO THE SOUTHEAST THRU THE SHORT TERM. THOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER SHALLOW AND LOW TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING.