Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A NARROW RIDGE TRAVERSES THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH DRY AND SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS PREDOMINATING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS EVENING SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA.
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT DOES SLOW IT/S EASTWARD PROGRESS TONIGHT AND WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR ALL AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND THEN THE COOL DOWN WILL START WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT.
A cold front will move through West Central Texas Tuesday. A cold front will move through West Central Texas Tuesday.
OBS SHOW SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY OVER THE NRN GULF. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT ON WEDNESDAY IS STILL MOSTLY PACIFIC AIR AND WHILE COOLER THAN WE HAVE SEEN.
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT, HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE DEEPER INTO THE ATLANTIC. BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE PLAINS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTH ACROSS EAST TX AND LA FROM THE GULF AND THE CARIBBEAN. THROUGH SATURDAY THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLIP EAST AS WELL ALLOWING A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA. AS THE PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST MOVES INTO THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SE TX AND LA. SUNDAY NIGHT A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL RETURN WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK CLOSER TO, YET STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE, CLIMO VALUES.
SW flow aloft today will strengthen Sat with a 140kt 3h jet moving across the area in advance of an upper low. 7h-5h LR's are marginal for thunder and the high based nature of cloud bases may contribute to gusty winds. A high wind watch is already in effect Winds in the higher elevations may begin earlier than 17Z and we will move the watch up to 15Z. Windy and cooler Sunday per tight MSLP gradient and lowering thickness, respectively, highs mostly in the 55-60 range. Another Pacific front is expected Tue PM and even cooler on Wed, highs 45-50.
300 AM MST SAT DEC 12 2015 UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MX TO NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE BY 12Z SUNDAY. SNOW WILL BE DECREASING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY THIS EVENING WITH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE PASSING TROUGH AXIS. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
IT IS ACTUALLY INTERESTING THAT THE PRECIPITATION IS SNOW RATHER THAN DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AS IT WOULD SEEM HARD TO IMAGINE MUCH ICE NUCLEI IN THE SHALLOW /2000 FT/ AND RELATIVELY WARM /-4C/ CLOUD. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
329 AM CST SAT DEC 12 2015 The warm front was splitting the forecast area, and right through the KC Metro. This will result in a large range of temperatures across the forecast area, with far northwestern Missouri hovering in the lower 50s, and parts of west central to central Missouri warming to near 70 degrees. Little variation in the temperature is expected Saturday night as the warm front will remain draped over northwestern Missouri and strong warm and moist advection persists.
329 AM EST SAT DEC 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY.
ALSO ADJUSTED FREEZING FOG AND ADDED DENSE WORDING TO THE YELLOWSTONE VALLEY. A LARGE TROUGH RESIDES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND MAJORITY OF CANADA. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH IS SUB-SYNOPTIC COUPLET WITH A SMALLER TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS AND WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MONTANA. ANOTHER RIDGE/TROUGH COUPLET RESIDES OFF THE WEST COAST OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. WITH DAYTIME WARMING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES REACHING ABOVE FREEZING SNOW MELT ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGES OF NEW COVERAGE WILL MOISTEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL THEN CHILL OUT OVERNIGHT NEAR A LIGHT WINDED WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL BE PUSHED OUT BY THE LARGE RIDGE TO THE WEST IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
MILDER AIR WILL MOVE IN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
A SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 7 PM SHOWED THAT HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST AND WAS HELPING GENERATE A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SE TEXAS.
336 AM EST SAT DEC 12 2015 A MOISTURE STARVED WARM FRONT THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL LIFT A WEAK WARM FRONT INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN. SOME FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT IT SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS SUCH AS RIDGES AND BLUFF TOPS. A VIGOROUS TROUGH THEN DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS TONIGHT AND PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS AND PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
851 PM PST FRI DEC 11 2015 A storm this weekend will bring snow accumulations for all but the lower elevations of central Washington. /Pelatti 00Z TAFS: Mainly VFR conditions through about 08-09z as a low pressure system misses the region to the south. Some moisture will wrap around the low through the night which will allow a lower deck and localized fog to develop.
934 PM PST FRI DEC 11 2015 A storm this weekend will bring snow accumulations for all but the lower elevations of central Washington.
WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM TIOGA INTO WATFORD CITY. THE 00Z NAM 4KM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT WILLISTON AND WATFORD CITY SHOW ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN THE SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLET SPECTRUM PORTION OF THE SOUNDING FOR POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS GOOD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. WITH SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED AT NWS BISMARCK. HAVE SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOWER 30S EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST. SATURDAY NIGHT A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE ROCKIES TO 4-CORNERS AREA. ON SUNDAY ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST AND DIGS SOUTH TOWARDS CALIFORNIA.
134 AM EST SAT DEC 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY.
332 AM EST SAT DEC 12 2015 A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
Snow totals will likely be in the same ballpark as this prior storm, with 1-2 feet of additional snow accumulation along the higher peaks.
Low temperatures will be quite warm, in fact warmer than typical highs for December. Confidence remains high in a general 1-3" of rain across the region, with the highest amounts adjacent to the MO/ARK state line.
456 AM EST SAT DEC 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
910 PM MST FRI DEC 11 2015 BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN U. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN U. HOENISCH /ISSUED 714 PM MST FRI DEC 11 2015/ FXUS65 KTFX 120214 AFDTFX NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 714 PM MST FRI DEC 11 2015 UPDATED TO ADD AREAS OF FREEZING FOG TO TOOLE/LIBERTY/HILL/BLAINE COUNTIES THIS EVENING.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. UPPER LOW WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD. FOR THE MOST PART MODELS AGREE ON LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS STRETCHING FROM SW TO CENTRAL SD. WILL ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MEETING THE LOW END OF SNOWFALL CRITERIA. WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL GLIDE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN CONTROL TONIGHT. AND WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
114 AM EST SAT DEC 12 2015 A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION.
311 AM EST SAT DEC 12 2015 A MOISTURE STARVED WARM FRONT THIS MORNING.
BY LATER THIS EVENING ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END AS THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA SHIFTS EAST AND DAYTIME HEATING ENDS, BRINGING MORE STABLE AIR. FOR TOMORROW, MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A TRANSITORY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO CALIFORNIA BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES ON SUNDAY.
1218 AM EST SAT DEC 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOOK FOR A DECREASE IN THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDINESS BY 18Z. MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES WITH CIGS AND VSBYS.
433 AM EST SAT DEC 12 2015 A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION.
223 AM CST SAT DEC 12 2015 A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY AND EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE OVERNIGHT WHEN THE LLJ NOSES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGHS PLAINS REGION. THE NAM IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH THE TRACK OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
UNSEASONABLY STRONG SUB-TROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING STRENGTHENS AND EXPANDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GOM AND SOUTHEASTERN US. WILL CAP SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. WITH HIGHS AROUND OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRI - BETWEEN 70-75 DEGREES. STRONG-SUBTROPICAL RIDGING AND CAPPING WILL REMAIN. WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO OR EVEN 2-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN SAT. THE SLOW APPROACH OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURGE OF THETA-E AT 850 MB WILL BE DIRECTED NNW INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE.
BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND TONIGHT TO HELP KEEP THINGS WELL MIXED TONIGHT AND WE MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES ON THE LOW SIDE FOR HSV. HOWEVER, THE HIGHER TERRAIN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE MAY SEE VISIBILITIES DROP DOWN TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES, MAINLY DUE TO THE LOW CLOUD BASES. THE LOW CIGS BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT AFTER 17Z LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS.
352 AM CST SAT DEC 12 2015 Warm front was located across NW Osage Co early this morning with warm and moist airmass now covering majority of the forecast area. Brief period of dense fog remain possible near and north of the warm front as it slowly lifts north, otherwise eventually expect some light rain or drizzle to break out across mainly eastern OK as lift begins to increase. Chance of showers and thunderstorms then increases more substantially later this afternoon and evening with approaching upper low. Strong deep layer shear does support storm organization however, with line of storms possible ahead of approaching cold front late tonight.
WEBCAMS AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING FOG/DENSE AT TIMES ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS EVENING. THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING UP AN AIR MASS THAT WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF WARMER TEMPS. AREAS ALONG I-29 INCLUDING WATERTOWN WILL REMAIN IN THE WARMER AIR LONGER AND MAY NOT SEE A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW UNTIL LATE SAT EVENING.
1225 AM EST SAT DEC 12 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z FORECAST CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
Walked outside a few minutes ago and everything is soaked as low level moisture continues to increase and condense on the cooler ground. HRRR has the low clouds continuing to push northeast this evening, but high clouds will likely persist over the area. The net effect for the public forecast will still be a mostly cloudy to cloudy sky regardless of what the low clouds ultimately decide to do. However, it's more likely that low visibility will be caused by low clouds which are forecast to redevelop over the higher terrain. MOS guidance in the low to mid 50s looks very reasonable.
UNSEASONABLY STRONG SUB-TROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THROUGH TONIGHT: RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION): THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE SE U. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW- MID 70S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. METEOROLOGICAL SET-UP (BUILDING RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL WAA) FAVORS LOW CLOUDS VERSUS DENSE FOG. -WSS RIDGE AT SURFACE AND ALOFT DRIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING PLACES A WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM KANSAS CITY TO ST LOUIS MO AND LOUISVILLE KY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY REMAIN RAIN-FREE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF TEXAS INTO MISSOURI BY SUNDAY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING EAST TOWARD THE CWA. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE THE STRONG GRADIENT WINDS AHEAD OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS/COLD FRONT.
9 PM BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN U. 7 PM UPDATED TO ADD AREAS OF FREEZING FOG TO TOOLE/LIBERTY/HILL/BLAINE COUNTIES THIS EVENING. DENSE FREEZING FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE HAVRE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TO AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S DOWNEAST. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. EXPECT THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 40S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER INTO THE REGION. BY SUNDAY MORNING A 500MB RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AS THE FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. SUNDAY NIGHT A SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION.
AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN NEAR THE CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING OUT OF MEXICO. STRONG WINDS IN THE SQUALL LINE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE HIGHER RISK.
SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THE UPPER LOW WILL TRANSITION INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING NE ACROSS THE CO FRONT RANGE.
A COLD FRONT RAN FROM THE LOW INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND DEEPEN AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S OVER THE NATURE COAST TO UPPER 60S ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. AN UPPER/MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE PLAINS AS IT APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE SLIGHTLY EAST.
THEN THINGS HEAT UP AS WE GET CONTINUED RIDGING OVER US COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BRINGING IN WARM AIR. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.
RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE AND PRODUCE A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TEMPS WILL REACH 80 TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST WHILE INLAND AREAS REACH THE LOWER-MID 80S. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED ABOVE 850MB. PERSISTENT RIDGING NE OF THE BAHAMAS WILL DEFLECT MUCH OF THE FRONTS ENERGY AND SUPPORT OFF TO OUR NORTH. MODELS INDICATE A MORE ROBUST FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THE PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
106 AM EST SAT DEC 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY.
IMPENDING STORM MADE LANDFALL TODAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CAME ASHORE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST AS SEEN ON WV LOOP.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THIS TROUGH BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST. AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
1246 AM EST SAT DEC 12 2015 A MOISTURE STARVED WARM FRONT THIS MORNING.
Lows tonight will be a couple degrees warmer than last night, thanks to southerly/southeasterly surface flow.
ISSUED 334 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015 THE MAIN NARRATIVES FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS ARE THE QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER THAT BEGAN TODAY WITH THE EXITING CLOSED LOW HEIGHT ANOMALY AND THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEKEND. SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN IS FORECASTED TO BE ON THE FRONT END OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD BE A GOOD 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
AS A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES BEGINS TO BUILD INTO MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS. AS THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC BASIN. EVEN WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BEGINNING TO TURN A BIT MORE TOWARD THE ESE. A FAST MOVING UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO THE E OVER THE SE STATES SHOULD ALSO HELP MAINTAIN PREDOM MOSTLY CLR/SUNNY SKIES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUN. THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL SUITES ARE THEN HINTING AT A FAST MOVING UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS SWEEPING ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGIONS LATE SUN INTO MON. AS ANOTHER STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE REGION.
UPPER RIDGE OVER COLORADO TODAY. RIDGE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST AS STRONG TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE STATE WITH WELL DEVELOPED LEE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. DEEPER MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS MOST AREAS. AND NUDGED UP CONSENSUS GRIDS TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A FAST MOVING THROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO COLORADO. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS TROUGH WITH MOST DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
SLIGHTLY WARMER FRIDAY NIGHT OWING IN PART TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MSTR PER NAM DETERMINISTIC.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE OVER THE PAC NW DIGS SOUTH OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST THE WINDS VEER EASTERLY DURING THE DAY FRI WITH CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT PRECIP RESIDES NEAR THE MAINE COAST. LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON RIDGES AND LOW TO MID 20S FOR OVERNIGHT.
THE MID AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD ON FRIDAY WHILE ANOTHER VIGOROUS MID/UPPER TROUGH IMPACTS THE WEST COAST. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH IMPACTING THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SAT.
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL ACROSS OUR REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL. TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE CHILLIEST NIGHT FOR A WHILE WITH WIDESPREAD EARLY MORNING FROST AND A MAJORITY OF SITES GETTING DOWN TO AT LEAST THE FREEZING MARK. TOMORROW WILL ULTIMATELY BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN TODAY (ALTHOUGH STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL) AS THE OVERHEAD AIR MASS BEGINS A SLOW MODERATION. ESPECIALLY IN EAST CENTRAL MS WHERE LOWS GETTING DOWN TO FREEZING ARE AGAIN A DECENT BET.
Tmrw, the High pressure center nudges eastward across the Ohio river valley, underneath the High aloft. Easterlies in the lower trop will cease the deeper cold advection and result in a warming to around 50, despite the cold start.
BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WARM AIR ALOFT TO MIX DOWN SO IT COULD BE WARMER OVER THE SNOW AREAS THAN IT WAS TODAY.
512 PM CST THU DEC 3 2015 BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES PIVOTING AROUND THE RIDGE. THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO THE REGION EARLIER THIS WEEK WAS MOVING OVER THE NORTHEAST. WITH A TROUGH BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. KEPT IT COOLER IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY TO ACCOUNT FOR NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE. THIS IS STILL WARMER THAN TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR 850HPA WAA.
645 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015 REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT IN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION AT THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. NO ATLANTIC FETCH WITH THIS FLOW AND SO NO MODERATION OF AIRMASS EXPECTED INTO SAT MORNING WITH LOWS ONCE AGAIN AROUND FREEZING FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. BUT DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL U.
Meanwhile, a weak upper level ridge of high pressure is shifting slowly east across the Central and Southern Rockies. Near the surface, a weak lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored across extreme eastern Colorado. Next longwave trough arrives in the Great Basin and the northern Rockies on Friday, with SW flow developing across SW KS by late afternoon.
940 PM CST THU DEC 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A 1030 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. THIS IS RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S NEAR THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE.
High pressure centered just to our west this afternoon will shift slowly eastward to our longitude Friday morning and will keep winds light and variable overnight.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AVIATION FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ABSOLUTELY DELIGHTFUL TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT ARE MOVING EWD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A THIN LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS RESULTING. AN ABNORMALLY WARM AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AND IS WORKING IN COLLABORATION WITH WEAK SOLAR RADIATION THROUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +7 TO +8 DEG C COMBINED WITH SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING WITH IT DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.
606 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015 LOW PRESSURE IS OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID MS VALLEY. MUCH WARMER AIR IS SURGING INTO THE REGION AT 850MB. A BACK EDGE TO THE LOW CLOUDS HAS MADE IT TO MUNISING. FZDZ COULD BE SEEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW AND N CENTRAL LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL DOMINATE NORTHERN MICHIGAN'S WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.