Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
MVFR level stratus and VISBYS are being advertised by guidance along and west of the Alabama River, so have added the lower conditions to these areas. An upper level ridge stretching west over the eastern Conus remains in place into mid week. Tropical Storm Danny get absorbed into an upper trough over the northeastern Gulf coast and sheared apart. The upper trough meanders slowly west over the northern Gulf coast, bringing an upward trend in rain chances into mid week. Tuesday into Tuesday night will see the upper trough move over the forecast area, bringing an uptick in PoPs when combined with the increased moisture levels.
Mild temps tonight due to cloud cover and southerly flow with lows in the low to middle 60s.
This high will keep conditions dry through Wednesday morning. A chance of isolated thunderstorms returns to the region on Wednesday afternoon as a weak trough pushes into the region.
High temps today again in the lower to mid 80s. As that upper trough shifts slightly southward Wednesday, so does the expected weather.
We have moisture coming both through advection from the east, and what appears will be a robust Gulf surge (enhanced by Enrique); a weak disturbance undercutting the massive high pressure to our north; and relatively mild temperatures aloft which will provide instability in support for thunderstorm formation. Later in the week, towards the weekend, ensemble guidances signals towards a decrease in monsoonal moisture as a ridge starts to build into the western United States.
This activity was not well-resolved by the CAMs, save perhaps for the HighRes ARW ETA, which depicted this cluster north into middle TN. Satellite shows a widespread Cu field over the entire area, with the quasi-stationary front still draped from TX through OK, MO and into the lower Great Lakes. Temperatures will cool off into the low to mid 70s overnight. A low pressure system sits off the mid California coast, blocked by an intense high pressure system that is sitting over the Pacific Northwest and Southwestern Canada giving them record breaking temperatures and heat indices. A low pressure system is located in southeastern Canada and near the Great Lakes. The low pressure over the Great Lakes is expected to shift to the southwest Wednesday.
330 AM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021 Today the long lived trough over Mid-America will finally shift northeast of the area and transition into weak ridging by tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, highly anomalous ridging continues over the Pacific Northwest with another ridge present over the Mid- Atlantic.
An approaching cold front this weekend may bring increasing thunderstorms chances. On Tuesday high pressure at both the surface and aloft will be just offshore promoting a deep layer of SE to E winds. And while a few lightning strikes are usually very tough to rule out in late June shallow convection appears much more likely than deep on account of the suppressing action of the ridging aloft. Highs in the lower 90s, lows in the lower 70s. Finally will have a change to interrupt the stagnant pattern, as an upper trough swings through the eastern CONUS, pushing a cold front through the Carolinas.
1055 PM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021 GOES-16 water vapor imagery this afternoon showing a highly amplified pattern in place with stationary ridges of high pressure anchored on both coasts and a deep trough of low pressure over the central CONUS. Impressive tropical tap (atmospheric river) from the eastern Pacific/Gulf of Mexico ahead of the trough was keeping rather humid airmass in place across our forecast area through Tuesday with precipitable water values hovering in the 1. Will see widely scattered showers and isolated storms this afternoon into this evening with more coverage expected Tuesday as that trough oozes ever so slowly eastward across the area. Strong Pacific Northwest ridge begins to slowly weaken heading into mid-week.
Otw, the current dewpoints, which are generally in the lower 70s, should support are fcst lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
307 AM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021 Upper ridging situated along the east coast was beginning to show signs of weakening, as troughing starts amplifying southward from eastern Canada. An upper level disturbance that will help with the above mentioned trough amplification was heading SSE along the NW Hudson Bay.
A warm front ran east from the low across southern Wisconsin. Another weak boundary ran south from the low into Missouri. Dew points in the 40s and 50s were across the northern Plains behind a cold front. Another upper level disturbance will approach the area late tonight which will cause an increase in the areal coverage of the rain with the highest coverage south of I-80.
Then isolated to scattered SHRA/TS are expected again later this afternoon, tapering off by early evening with the highest coverage expected across east/south MS and central LA. /CME/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and tomorrow: A flat upper ridge extending from the Atlantic Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley will remain in place through the period. For tomorrow, an inverted trough associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Danny is forecast to slide into the area from the east and will help instigate scattered afternoon showers and storms.
A stronger system will finally start to change the pattern on Wednesday as a cold front moves through the area. Cooler conditions will progressively move into the region thereafter. A west to east oriented cold front across southern Canada will track south Wednesday. Not as warm on Wednesday due to cooler 850mb temperatures and cloud cover but relatively high dewpoints will continue to produce humid conditions across the region. High temperatures will reach the low to mid 80s.
and Wednesday An approaching upper trough and weak surface cold front will combine to produce cloudy skies and lots of shower activity today.
An upper level ridge stretching west over the eastern Conus remains in place into mid week. Tropical Storm Danny get absorbed into an upper trough over the northeastern Gulf coast and sheared apart. The upper trough meanders slowly west over the northern Gulf coast, bringing an upward trend in rain chances into mid week. Tuesday into Tuesday night will see the upper trough move over the forecast area, bringing an uptick in PoPs when combined with the increased moisture levels.
The forecast has not changed much in the past 10 to 12 hours, as a large positively tilted trough continues to slowly dig its way east across the Plains States. And, while the mid-level flow ahead of the boundary, and trough in general, is rather weak, around 15 to 20 knots from the south, this has been more than sufficient to induce overrunning shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon. expectations are that this general stormy activity will persist through much of Tuesday and Wednesday as the positively tilted trough slowly moves east, keeping the general shower and thunderstorm trend slowly shifting east over the next 48 hours, with activity likely to focus more across central and eastern Missouri.
122 AM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 The trough to the east combined with the ridge to the northwest is producing northeasterly flow across Wyoming. Highs will be at least 5 degrees warmer on Wednesday, with the Bighorn basin climbing into the mid 90s.
1056 PM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Iso SHRA/TSRA continue this aftn near a trof axis slowly shifting sewd thru the n cntrl CONUS. Primary trof axis shifts ewd into the Upper Midwest tonight into early tomorrow. Low- level thermal ridging will slowly expand ewd into the High Plains as mid-to-upper ridge progresses ewd. Main fcst question over the latter half of the work week will be whether or not troughing over the ern CONUS can chip away at the ern periphery of the ridge sufficiently to support lift for showers/storms across our region.
(Today through Wednesday afternoon) This morning W TX and SE NM remains between an upper low to the west and a ridge to the east. the Highest chances today will be over SE NM. Lower rain chances continue Wednesday but remain likely over the higher elevations.
347 AM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021 Very warm and humid conditions will continue today in the circulation around high pressure centered along the Atlantic Coast.
457 AM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a strong mid-level anticyclone centered along the WA/BC border. Downstream, a positively tilted trof extends from Hudson Bay across the Plains, resulting in sw flow into the Upper Lakes.
1135 PM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 (29/06Z TAF period) Upper level ridging remains over the Pacific Northwest and southwestern Canada with a very dry northeast to easterly flow aloft continuing over Montana tonight through Tuesday evening.
A weak tropical wave was noted lifting north along the western periphery of the upper ridge, and this feature (along with daytime heating) will aid in additional convection this morning and into the afternoon. A portion of the expansive southeastern ridge will eventually break off and retrograde across TX through mid-week.
1130 PM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Cooler than average temperatures each day along with a possibility of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through mid-week. At the start of the period, an upper trough continues across eastern Canada into the Great Lakes. In addition, an area of high pressure is located over the southern Plains, with ridging over portions of the western CONUS.
635 AM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021 Today the long lived trough over Mid-America will finally shift northeast of the area and transition into weak ridging by tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, highly anomalous ridging continues over the Pacific Northwest with another ridge present over the Mid- Atlantic.
Rainfall could be moderate to heavy at times today given the high moisture content of the air mass. The pattern shift needed to bring the soggy conditions to an end will occur late this week as a mid-level trough over the northeastern US forces a cold front through Kansas.
A strong high pressure ridge remains in place with very hot temperatures continuing over most inland areas today.
Upper ridging situated along the east coast was beginning to show signs of weakening, as troughing starts amplifying southward from eastern Canada. An upper level disturbance that will help with the above mentioned trough amplification was heading SSE along the NW Hudson Bay.
Cooler weather ahead after record breaking heat ends as thermal low pressure shifts east of the Cascades.
On Wednesday thunderstorm activity will expand across most of central and northern NV, bring some needed showers, along with some cooler temperatures. Any thunderstorms that develop across central NV this afternoon will likely be a mix of wet and dry as dew points will be in the low 40s and precipitable water values across central NV range between 0. The increased afternoon cloud cover from developing storms will likely result in slightly cooler afternoon high temperatures than guidance was suggesting a few days ago.
Conditions across the area feature mainly clear skies as high pressure begins to even more retreat as the ridge slowly begins to break down. Speaking of the humidity, heat index values will likely be the highest today than what we've seen the entire year. Thus, will let the HWO ridge for HI values in the 95 to 99 degree range. Wednesday will see greater shower and thunderstorm coverage with falling heights ahead of an approaching upper trough.
Strong 596 upper level ridge lies over the mid Atlantic with a 1027 MB surface off the Carolina coast. the region will continue to experience western side of ridge clockwise flow streaming relentless moisture up from the southeastern gulf. locally 2 inches plus will be possible in an isolated area given the high moisture content and where repeat showers and storms train over the same area.
Satellite imagery shows an inverted trough along the AZ-NM border extending north into southeastern Utah with weak lows near Duncan AZ, a second to the north near the Four Corners area and another near Capital Reef NP. Low pressure undercutting the high along the Canadian border from the east will slow the motion of the high to the east keeping the western US in this weak flow regime for the next few days promoting wide spread afternoon showers and thunderstorms across northern Arizona through most of the work week.
Rainfall could be moderate to heavy at times today given the high moisture content of the air mass. The pattern shift needed to bring the soggy conditions to an end will occur late this week as a deepening mid-level trough over the northeastern US forces a cold front through Kansas.
High pressure will dominate the region's weather for the foreseeable future and bring hot and dry weather to most of Northwest California. Areas in Trinity County will see the mercury climb up to 110 degrees this afternoon! Some of the warmer spots in Lake County will still see highs reaching triple digits. The main ridge responsible for all the record heat up and down the West Coast will shift to the east and north as the low offshore moves north-northeast. Though, another ridge will quickly build back in to keep those hot interior temperatures around through the end of the work week.
448 AM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 Upper level analysis shows upper trough axis in roughly the same position as this time yesterday - centered from western MN southwestward into eastern SD and central NE. Fairly quiescent weather today as upper trough elongates and pivots eastward. Deep upper ridge continues to nose eastward and when coupled with weak warm air advection and diabatic heating, will result in a warmer day today than previous days with highs in the 80s across the area today along with sunny skies. Upper ridge will dominate the synoptic pattern the rest of the week as southerly flow continues to advect warmer air into the region.
Because of the isolated nature of the showers this morning have not prevailed any -RA due to the low confidence in the timing, and whether the showers will impact the terminals at all. The majority of the high resolution models are in fairly good agreement with this timing, with most of the precipitation dissipating or moving north of our area by the Tuesday evening hours. The high precipitable water values continue into Wednesday, but synoptic models show high pressure forming across north Texas.
456 AM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 The trough to the east combined with the ridge to the northwest is producing northeasterly flow across Wyoming. Highs will be at least 5 degrees warmer on Wednesday, with the Bighorn basin climbing into the mid 90s.
High pressure is currently anchored in the western Atlantic and is supporting primarily moderate east to southeast breezes across the coastal waters. From synopsis, High pressure centered over the western North Atlantic will maintain moderate east to southeast breezes this afternoon into tonight, with breezes slowly decreasing tomorrow.
733 AM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a strong mid-level anticyclone centered along the WA/BC border. Downstream, a positively tilted trof extends from Hudson Bay across the Plains, resulting in sw flow into the Upper Lakes.
This low level lift should garner additional showers and storms near the coast, albeit less in coverage than this morning given weakening winds over the Gulf. PoPs were lowered 10-20% below NBM in most areas tomorrow afternoon as mid-level ridging expands south accompanied by rising heights and weak subsidence. High temps today are being kept close to yesterday's values given a similar convective scenario, with slightly warmer readings expected Wednesday, although heat indices should remain well below 105.
The axis of the ridge of high pressure is slowly traversing to the east. This progression of the ridge will cause the extremely hot air to move over the Northern Rockies.
High pressure will dominate the region's weather for the foreseeable future and bring hot and dry weather to most of Northwest California. Some areas in Trinity County will see the mercury climb up to as high as 110 degrees this afternoon! Some of the warmer spots in Lake County will still see highs reaching triple digits. The main ridge responsible for all the record heat up and down the West Coast will shift to the east and north as the low offshore moves north-northeast. Though, another ridge will quickly build back in to keep those hot interior temperatures around through the end of the work week.
855 AM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021 Deep layered ridging over the Atlantic and extending east over the eastern U.
However, abundant cloud cover with a rain-cooled lower boundary layer may not cooperate so will allow the Flash Flood Watch to expire at 12Z, except that we'll extend Chaves County and the South Central Mountains through 12Z Wednesday where the latest NAM and GFS show the highest qpf over the next 24hrs. The best shot at some decent lightning activity today will likely be along/west of the Continental Divide under the deformed upper low where some surface heating may help out.
Amplified ridge remains in control over the west with the strong high centered slightly eastward from yesterday over the British Columbia/Washington border.
352 AM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 Upper air analysis depicts the omega block pattern is still in effect across the Pacific Northwest, as the upper level trough remains across the Midwest. Expecting much less convection today, outside of the higher terrains west of Laramie, as a bulk of the moisture remains further to the south into Colorado and across the Four Corners. Cooler temperatures will remain across the CWA from the influence of the omega blocking pattern as the western seaboard continues to break record highs. The next few days should start to see the return of afternoon showers and thunderstorms as the upper level trough begins to transition towards the east.
At the surface, a weak trough will linger along the lower Texas coast through Wednesday.
Daytime highs are expected in the mid to upper 90s, with some areas reaching into the low 100s.
The high pressure system located offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast will remain in place through the time period.
Temperatures are off to the races today under mainly sunny skies and the lingering upper level ridge. We'll have another hot and muggy day today as temperatures lift into the lower and middle 90s once again.
The dominant high over the Pacific NW has some ridging extending southward into our area which is causing our marine layer to be more compressed. that will equate to slightly warmer temperatures today. Current outlook for July 4th: - Coastal/Bay areas will have highs in the low 60s to mid 70s - Interior areas will see highs mid 70s to low 90s One concern to watch for the holiday will be the timing of marine stratus moving inland in the evening.
Shower activity should wind down this evening, as moisture associated with the tropical system exits to the NE, and a normally cooler more stable environment in the night time. Muggy conditions are expected with lows only in the lower 70s. The aformentioned trough will amplify further to the south during the course of the mid/latter half of the week.
1043 AM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021 Very warm and humid conditions will continue today in the circulation around high pressure centered along the Atlantic Coast.
BRO radar currently indicates some showers and thunderstorms south of the Rio Grande Valley and off the lower Texas coast. At the surface, a weak trough will linger along the lower Texas coast through Wednesday.
643 AM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021 The large ridge of high pressure covering the Mid-Atlantic region that has brought hot and humid conditions will gradually weaken this week as a slow moving cold front approaches from the west.
Highs on Wednesday in this area will be slightly cooler.
Increasing moisture will result in daily scattered showers and thunderstorms and cooler afternoon temperatures. As is typical, would expect the convection to initiate over the higher terrain then move out into the valleys through movement and/or development due to outflow boundary interactions. With the extra moisture, clouds and some precip, afternoon high temperatures will be 2-5 degrees cooler than yesterday depending on location with a breezy east wind continuing through much of the day.
649 AM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021 Very warm and humid conditions will continue today in the circulation around high pressure centered along the Atlantic Coast.
We'll have another hot and muggy day today as temperatures lift into the lower and middle 90s once again.
1251 PM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 Upper level analysis shows upper trough axis in roughly the same position as this time yesterday - centered from western MN southwestward into eastern SD and central NE. Fairly quiescent weather today as upper trough elongates and pivots eastward. Deep upper ridge continues to nose eastward and when coupled with weak warm air advection and diabatic heating, will result in a warmer day today than previous days with highs in the 80s across the area today along with sunny skies. Upper ridge will dominate the synoptic pattern the rest of the week as southerly flow continues to advect warmer air into the region.
With the ridge to the northeast this afternoon, the flow will be from the east. For Wednesday, with the high located more toward the east, the flow will be from the east southeast.
421 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021 Warm and muggy conditions with scattered storms continue through the evening under the western periphery of subtropical high pressure centered off the United States east coast.
A mid level ridge centered over the Ohio Valley will build westward across the region in its wake. The aforementioned ridge will build farther west and become centered over Texas on Wednesday.
This feature will attempt to move into Minnesota tonight into midday Wednesday, with a ridge lingering over our far eastern SD and west central MN counties. By daybreak Wednesday, the trough should extending across much of MT through western to south central SD. The 500mb high over southern British Columbia/Alberta this afternoon will weaken slightly as it slowly moves to central Saskatchewan and builds a ridge across the Dakotas. The trough will also weaken, with the apex still overhead Wednesday morning, finally shifting to our south and east Wednesday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be about 5 degrees warmer tomorrow, and relative humidity values nearly 5 percent lower than what has been realized today.
The strong upper ridge will remain centered to our north, but it does extend south over our area.
In addition, HREF max wind gust forecasts indicate the potential for strong to severe wind gusts with any robust storms that move off the Rim into the lower deserts to the south. Satellite imagery shows an inverted trough along the AZ-NM border extending north into southeastern Utah with weak lows near Duncan AZ, a second to the north near the Four Corners area and another near Capitol Reef NP. Low pressure undercutting the high along the Canadian border from the east will slow the motion of the high to the east keeping the western US in this weak flow regime for the next few days promoting wide spread afternoon showers and thunderstorms across northern Arizona through most of the work week.
08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure to the east of Kentucky with the remains of T. More clouds around this night has kept temperatures from dropping off much resulting in only a small ridge to valley temperature difference.
The upper level inverted trough will persist until Wednesday over the northern Gulf before beginning to break down somewhat through the day. This may be in response to an upper trough digging down over the Great Lakes, upper Ohio Valley, and northeastern CONUS during this time. Current temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s, with a few spots over south-central Alabama in the upper 80s. Lows tonight will continue to be warm, in the lower 70s north of I-10 and in the lower to mid 70s south of I-10.