Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Mainly clear skies across the state this morning, save for some high clouds topping the ridge across northern Michigan. Today: High pressure will remain in control while low level southerly flow gradually increases through the day. Tonight: Upstream cold front expected to skirt through Lake Superior and into upper Michigan while moisture/instability axis folds into upper Michigan. Have added/expanded precip chances up that way for tonight and hope we don't see some of that activity try to sneak further south of the bridge.
343 AM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016 Convective elements from the overnight MCS have all but dissipated, however several CAM solutions continue to indicate isolated weak elevated convection could still form along the ND/SD state line associated with the tail end of a 500mb trof this morning.
234 AM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016 Temperatures around the area this morning were mild with readings in the low to mid 70s.
401 AM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016 Surface and mid level troughs located along the northeast Gulf Coast region will be the the focus for numerous showers and thunderstorms across the local forecast area in the coming days. The ECMWF continues to be the most aggressive with the strength of the low and qpf output.
630 AM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016 Moisture will begin to increase across the area today as high pressure continues to shift east over the Atlantic Ocean. Warm advection will force 850mb temperatures to rise a couple of degrees compared to yesterday, allowing highs to rise into the low 90s under remnant subsident layer. Quick transition to a building upper ridge Tuesday night into Wednesday will end any convective threat through midweek as forecast soundings indicate substantial capping.
338 AM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016 Latest surface analysis not showing a great deal of change over our area as high pressure holds to our northeast early this morning. Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s Wed elevate into the mid 70s Thu with upper 70s possible in spots.
351 AM MDT Tue Aug 9 2016 A broad low pressure system approaching the Northern Rockies has brought scattered thunderstorms across the area overnight and early this morning. As the low tracks farther eastward today, increased moisture will continue to support widespread showers and thunderstorms across north-central ID and western MT today. In addition, the cloud cover/showers and cooler air mass will keep temperatures well below normal for this time of year. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue overnight into early Wednesday for northwest Montana as the low tracks eastward and exits the area. The cool air in the wake of the low will lower snow levels to approximately 8000-9000 ft, supporting light snow for those high elevations.
SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): The dominant H5 ridge remains in place through the next 36 hours, continuing the dead of summer heat.
Based on these warming temperatures by the NAM and GFS at 00z Wednesday the highs should easily climb back into the mid 90s. A trough of low pressure at the surface will develop along the lee of the Rockies mid week as an upper level trough slowly moves east across the Western United States. Given the tropical moisture ahead of upper level trough and currently would not be surprised to see a few isolated thunderstorms Tuesday night or Wednesday evening, especially near the surface boundary in eastern Colorado.
while pivoting the inverted surface trof E back into the area. The inverted surface trof that was partially responsible for the narrow axis of 1 to 2 inches of rainfall just S of I64 has pivoted W of the area. Temps will top out in the upper 80s across the Lowlands with generally 70s in the mountains. A persistent tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico will loft lobes of moisture northward into a conditionally unstable air mass giving aftn tstms despite being under high pressure. a series of low pressure systems will ride up and along the front. Temperatures should trend a bit cooler. Allowed the low stratus over KBKW to lift by 13z and sct out with VFR conditions anticipated today for all terminals amid a sct to bkn 4 to 5 thsd foot cu field.
Upper trough along the West Coast gradually weakens the next couple of days and is replaced by ridging building in from the eastern Pacific after mid-week. Highs today and Wednesday are expected to hold pretty steady, then warmer readings are on tap for late in the week when triple digits will be possible across portions of the Central Valley.
First, the lower stratus and stratocumulus this afternoon could lead to some fog tonight. Tuesday should remain dry and with a ridge across the area, temperatures should be warmer than today. The ridge moves to the east Tuesday night and there is another weak upper level wave that brings a small chance for thunderstorms to the far south again. Wednesday night a cold front develops to the northwest of the forecast area and as an upper level wave moves into the area, there is a chance for thunderstorms starting in the northwest late Wednesday night.
Temperatures have risen into the low 70s, where clouds persist, and the low 80s where clouds burned off earlier. As a result, showers and storms developed and are moving out over the High Plains. Latest high-resolution guidance suggests a few thunderstorm clusters developing along the Rockies and spreading southeast across the High Plains. Temperatures should soar into the low to mid 90s tomorrow as warm air spreads in from the south/southwest.
Abundant atmospheric moisture associated with a slow moving low pressure system along the Gulf Coast will slowly push towards the ArkLaMiss as the low wobbles this direction. With such a rich moisture supply and added mid-level support from the low pressure system, there will be a Limited Risk for flooding today and tomorrow.
Warm advection will force 850mb temperatures to rise a couple of degrees compared to yesterday, allowing highs to rise into the low 90s under remnant subsident layer. Quick transition to a building upper ridge Tuesday night into Wednesday will end any convective threat through midweek as forecast soundings indicate substantial capping.
The inverted surface trof that was partially responsible for the narrow axis of 1 to 2 inches of rainfall just S of I64 has pivoted W of the area. Temps will top out in the upper 80s across the Lowlands with generally 70s in the mountains. While we will be under high pressure, lobes of moisture may drift up into our unstable air mass giving aftn tstms.
Warmer weather will return later in the week as a ridge of high pressure builds over the district. A few warmer pixels indicated west of coalinga near the Monterrey county border due to a wildfire. An upper trough off the N CA coast will dig South into central CA today.
258 AM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016 Upper ridge/high will remain off the Atlantic coast, with weak flow on the west periphery and across our area.
upper low moving across the Pacific northwest. Satellite showing a short wave rotating around the low this evening. For Tuesday the upper low will be directly over the region with fairly cold air aloft. Based on track of the low best chances for precipitation will be northeast Oregon. By Wed the low has moved out of the area with a drier northwest flow aloft. Skies will be mostly sunny with warmer temps. Upper low will continue to bring scattered showers to the area overnight into Tue.
SURFACE WISE, A TWO PRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS ALIGNED OVER EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE ISLAND OF CUBA.
318 AM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016 Pacific NW upper cyclone and associated longwave trof. with the upper ridge re-establishing itself.
Clouds and increasing dew points will keep low temperatures in the mid 60s higher ridges and far north, with lower 70s elsewhere. The Southern CONUS upper high is progged to be shunted east by the weekend as an upper trough advances out of the West.
High pressure building over the Pacific Northwest will bring a warming trend and drier weather through the rest of the week. upper low was seen in watr vapor pictures over south central WA this morning. Scattered showers continued to move s behind the low from western WA down into nw OR. Models continue to show the upper low moving e across the ID panhandle this evening, allowing showers to diminish later today as the low moves away. Temps remain cooler than normal today with h8 temps still on the order of 8 to 10 deg c over the interior. Tonight through Thu is a transition period as the low moves off to the east and a ridge over the east Pacific moves e and approaches the coast.
454 AM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016 Water vapor imagery indicates the upper level ridge holding serve across much of the SECONUS with a notable clockwise flow aloft. Convection is confined to the northern Gulf this morning under the ridge axis with some mid and upper level clouds seen over parts of our region per IR satellite. The heat is not expected to relent much through the rest of the week, but disturbances riding underneath the ridge along the Gulf coast will help to increase rain chances through mid to late week. On a more positive note, the weekend still looks more promising for higher rain chances and milder temperatures thanks to a cold front tracking southward from the Plains later this week.
348 AM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016 A weak warm front will lift north across the area today into tonight.
310 AM PDT TUE AUG 9 2016 A deepening trough of low pressure will bring night through morning low clouds and fog west of the mountains, along with below normal temperatures for many places through midweek. A warming trend and shrinking marine layer is then expected for the end of the week into the weekend as high pressure builds aloft. Max temps will be a little cooler today esp in the Santa Clarita vly due to the newly introduced marine air. Broad west coast trofing will continue Wednesday and the day will be very similar to Today.
135 AM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016 High pressure will continue to provide dry conditions into Tuesday morning. A weak trough and building instability may combine to spark a stray shower or storm Tuesday afternoon east of Interstate 69.
By Wednesday the guidance consensus indicates that some relatively drier air could lift northward across the Florida straits on Wednesday but additional deeper moisture could enter the region from the east as the weak trough currently northeast of the Bahamas drifts westward over the next couple of days and adds additional moisture to the region.
1139 PM MDT MON AUG 8 2016 Upper air analysis shows an upper low across the Pac NW with active SW flow extending into the nrn Plains. Upper low will drift eastward into the nrn Rockies Tuesday with sw flow aloft deepening over the nrn Plains.
Upper low over the Pacific Northwest is beginning to move east very slowly this morning.
224 AM PDT Tue Aug 9 2016 A deep and slow moving low pressure system will move across the area over the next few days. This low will bring cooler temperatures and the threat of showers and thunderstorms.
309 AM PDT TUE AUG 9 2016 The closed low in south central Washington/north central Oregon will continue to slowly migrate east, crossing the border into Canada from north central Montana Wednesday afternoon. a weak trough swinging around the low will bring a round of light showers that will brush the northern portions of mostly the west side this morning. Heights rise into the latter half of the week as the upper low moves east and an upper level ridge builds over the west coast.
Overall there will still be enough moisture for isold to wdly sct tstms this aftn and evening over the higher terrain. As for high 850-700 mb temps rise a few more degrees today which will allow for highs in the lower to mid 90s across nern CO.
Low-level temperature fields are a bit warmer than yesterday (H85 temps around 21-26C). and afternoon temperatures are expected to top out near or above record territory in the lower 90s across parts of northeast OK and into west central AR.
The main concern will be with wind gusts with a cold front moving approaching the Panhandles at the end of this TAF cycle. The cold front looks to be reaching KGUY around the 6Z hour on Tuesday then pushing through KDHT and KAMA thereafter. Winds are expected to become even stronger than today's as the leeside trough deepens further. Between downslope winds, and a very similar 850mb thermal ridge as the past few days, temperatures will have no trouble reaching the low to mid 90s again on Monday.
635 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 An upper level ridge will build through Monday.
654 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 A few showers are possible again today with the highest chances occurring this afternoon and especially in New York State. Very warm and dry weather is expected on Tuesday before the pattern becomes cooler and more active into the latter half of the week with additional chances for rain. A boundary laying across our area now will lift northeast late today as a warm front.
403 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016 WV imagery shows the upper lvl ridge has moved east a bit over the past 24 hours, now centered near the upper Texas Gulf coast. Combined w/forecast RH of 15% or less in the lower elevations of the Guadalupes, concerns turn toward fire wx. Unfortunately, the upper ridge is still forecast to develop east over the next few days, w/concurrent drops in thicknesses/heights resulting in a cooling trend. Late tonight/Tuesday, a cold front will try and backdoor into the area, but models suggest it'll make it only midway into the CWA before return flow resumes.
The best chances of fog will be across inland SE Ga and southward west of of trail ridge where lighter winds will prevail. Temperatures will be mild and range from lows in the low/mid 60s inland to lower 70s coast/St Johns River basin.
Weak upper low over the area still expected to slide southeast and weaken as east-west oriented upper ridge builds into SE CONUS. as ridging increases.
The warm front is moving nwd through srn WI early this morning. With 925 mb temps warming into the lower 20C range, near record high temps in the lower 80s will be possible mainly in the srn half of the CWA. Windy conditions may then develop for late this afternoon and tonight, when strong low pressure tracks from se MN toward Lake Superior. Otherwise, will go dry for later today and tonight with another upper wave associated with the low pressure area focusing to the north once again. A dry cold frontal passage is then expected early Tue morning, since the atmosphere will likely remain capped.
Weak low pressure systems will keep the weather pattern unsettled over the area through Tuesday. Weak high pressure aloft will prevail Tuesday night for a period of dry weather.
600 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 High pressure will keep the unseasonably warm weather through the first half of the week. A frontal system brings unsettled and cooler weather by mid week, lasting through late week. High pressure then takes over providing a dry and warm afternoon. Therefore, will go on the warmer side of MOS lows. Building upper level ridge across the southeastern U.
Showers will diminish later this morning as a mid level ridge begins to build over the region. Stronger warm advection ahead of an approaching mid level trough will push temperatures toward record values Tuesday, see the climate section below for details. By late day Tuesday the cold front associated with the trough will bring a chance of showers or a thunderstorm across northwest PA.
followed by highs in the lower to middle 80s in the afternoon. Highs on Tuesday will range from the middle 70s across lower Michigan and far Northern Indiana to the lower 80s over north central Indiana and northwest Ohio. Partial energy ejections through broad/shallow troffing over northern/central Rockies to rapidly eject multiple surface frontal waves from western plains into northern Upper Great Lakes into day2. Greater chances for rain event Wed night into Thu as upstream trof deepens into Mississippi Valley. Significantly cooler as well as low level frontogenesis per backed n- nerly flow in rain cooled/stable airmass for latter part of week. KIWX 88D VWP shows 40 knots in the lowest gate at 2kft from the southwest. Warm front has basically mixed northward but sfc winds lagging with a southeast component.
Very active upper trough swinging through the PAC NW this morning. This is likely around the time the upper trough will pass through Idaho. Otherwise the higher elevations will see about 1 to 3 inches of additional snowfall tomorrow. Ridging should dominate the weather pattern through the rest of the week with temperatures getting back into the 60s once again.
222 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 Dry high pressure will dominate the region for most of the week with temperatures well above normal. Moisture and rain chances will return by the end of the work week as a cold front crosses the region from the west. Dry and cooler weather will likely set up across the area over the weekend. At 200 AM Monday: An upper ridge will progress across the Gulf States and Appalachians today and tonight, while troughs cross the Bahamas and Upper Midwest. As of 200 AM EDT Monday: Broad upper level ridging will extend from the lower MS River Valley to the Carolinas on Tuesday.
114 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 High pressure off the east coast will keep the unseasonably warm weather through midweek. A frontal system brings unsettled and, eventually, cooler weather, late in the week.
Water vapor imagery and streamflow indicate an upper level high centered over southeast TX, inducing a north-northwest flow over the TN valley at mid-high levels. At 850 mb, a high was centered over SC with a large thermal ridge across the central and southern Plains.
SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): H5 ridge remains dominant across south Texas during the next 36 hours. As the ridge slowly begins to drift eastward tonight into tomorrow, some moisture will begin to rise further upwards into the atmosphere.
330 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 A trough of low pressure crossing the area will dissipate today.
157 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 With high pressure over the southeastern states, southerly winds will continue to provide warm weather for the Ohio Valley through Tuesday.
128 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 A cold front will bring overcast skies and periods of light rain showers through tonight. However, a warm front will bring another chance of showers moving in from the south Monday night and Tuesday. To the north however, in advance of a pre-frontal trough and wind shift, skies have started to clear out. That will continue to be the case as the pre-frontal trough shifts southward. However it stands to be pretty temporary as once the actual cold front now analyzed over the Ottawa Valley advances southward into the early morning/pre-dawn hrs it will mix out any mist or fog owing to dry advection.
511 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 High pressure will keep the unseasonably warm weather through the first half of the week. A frontal system brings unsettled and cooler weather by mid week, lasting through late week. High pressure then takes over providing a dry and warm afternoon. Therefore, will go on the warmer side of MOS lows. Building upper level ridge across the southeastern U.
404 AM CDT MON OCT 17 2016 Height fields will edge slightly lower today as a trough races across the central and northern Rockies. Alone this would imply cooler temperatures, however a stout thermal ridge will relocate farther south and serve to keep deep mixing with near record heat on tap for all of the region. After midnight, attention turns to a dry cold front accelerating south through the Panhandle before clearing a large portion of the CWA toward daybreak.
349 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016 Unseasonably warm and near record high temperatures will continue for a couple more days across much of Southeast Texas with a persistent onshore flow at the surface and ridging in the mid/upper levels.
followed by highs in the lower to middle 80s in the afternoon. Highs on Tuesday will range from the middle 70s across lower Michigan and far Northern Indiana to the lower 80s over north central Indiana and northwest Ohio. A cold front will be moving southeast and should move across the area during the day as an upper level trof moves.
/issued 354 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): H5 ridge remains dominant across south Texas during the next 36 hours. As the ridge slowly begins to drift eastward tonight into tomorrow, some moisture will begin to rise further upwards into the atmosphere.
Early morning analysis shows an area of low pressure extending from around Hays and Russell back toward Garden City. Farther south, southwesterly winds have stayed up which is keeping temperatures in the lower to mid 60s at 3 am. A strong cold front will push south across central and southwest Kansas during the evening hours.
Lows will be in the low to mid 60s. Warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather will continue through Monday. Surface analysis had a 1022mb high centered over the Carolinas that will continue to weaken as it ridges back to the southwest across the Gulf coast states through Monday as well. Ridging surface and aloft tonight will contribute to a light wind and a mostly clear sky. Monday morning lows will continue above normal in the low to mid 60s. Normal lows run from the upper 40s north to the lower 50s southeast. Model consensus concerning the expected latter week cold frontal passage has improved since yesterday, with most runs being more progressive and showing less tendency for the associated driving upper disturbance (originating in the stormy Pacific Northwest) to start cutting off west of our longitude.
600 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 A trough of low pressure crossing the area will dissipate today.
240 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 A weak cold front will move to near the New York - Pennsylvania border this morning, before retreating back to the north as a warm front later today and Tuesday.
345 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016 An upper level ridge centered west of the region is building eastward and will be overhead today. At the surface, ridge of high pressure extends from the western Atlantic across the southeastern United States. Temperatures will continue to be unusually hot with high pressure in place, so have kept forecast highs approaching the 90 degree mark for the next couple days.
225 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016 Water vapor imagery and streamflow indicate an upper level high centered over southeast TX, inducing a north-northwest flow over the TN valley at mid-high levels. At 850 mb, a high was centered over SC with a large thermal ridge across the central and southern Plains.
328 AM PDT Mon Oct 17 2016 A few bands of rain and high elevation snow showers will linger through this morning, with a weaker low pressure bringing one more chance for light rain showers tonight into early Tuesday near the Oregon border. Otherwise, drier conditions will set up this week as a flat ridge of high pressure sets up near the west coast.
302 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 An upper level ridge will build through Monday.
411 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 A few showers are possible again today with the highest chances occurring this afternoon and especially in New York State. Very warm and dry weather is expected on Tuesday before the pattern becomes cooler and more active into the latter half of the week with additional chances for rain. A boundary laying across our area now will lift northeast late today as a warm front.
A weak ridge of high presaloft moving across during the latter half of the week may bring a brief respite from the showers late in the week or over the weekend.
240 AM CDT MON OCT 17 2016 Lee trough will result in gusty south-southwesterly winds across central/eastern Kansas Today. This will push a cold front southward through the forecast area tonight into Tuesday morning. Cooler, more seasonable air will settle in behind this front tonight into Tuesday.
Early morning temperatures are currently in the upper 60s to the lower 70s and will not drop all that much more tonight.
156 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 An upper level ridge will build through Monday.
536 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 A weak cold front will move to near the New York - Pennsylvania border this morning, before retreating back to the north as a warm front later today and Tuesday.