Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
316 PM MST Thu Jun 11 2020 The hot and dry conditions will persist into the weekend, but some slight cooling will drop temperatures closer to normal readings as a low pressure system passes by to the north and west.
High pressure moving through the region was providing clear skies and a dry airmass with light winds. Temps will fall off rapidly after sunset with lows in the middle/upper 50s in the eastern Ozarks to the lower 60s in the west. Northwest flow continues Friday as a ridge strengthens across the eastern Rockies. 850mb temps look to be about 3 degrees warmer than today therefore warmer high temps are expected for Friday. The mid/upper level ridge moves east, further into the central plains for the weekend. The mid level ridge moves closer to the area as the week progresses which will allow for temps to increase a few degrees each day and keep precip chances near zero. High pressure over the area will dominate the weather through the entire TAF period.
Strong high pressure aloft by midday Friday will be centered over far West Texas, and an upper trough will be near the West Coast.
703 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020 Water vapor imagery with 500mb heights overlaid shows very dry and upper levels with an upper ridge building over the Intermountain West.
High pressure will continue to ridge weakly into the eastern Gulf of Mexico from the east as a stalled frontal boundary sits northwest of the waters.
1023 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020 Deep and moist northeasterly flow contributed to several rounds of storms across the southeastern Gulf and the coastal waters adjacent to the Lower Keys for the past several hours. Since then, most of the convection is favored between the Lower Keys and the Dry Tortugas. A broad ridge axis extending west from the Bermuda high will stretch across the Florida Peninsula tonight and Friday. The ridge axis will dissipate this weekend, with only light to gentle breezes expected.
734 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020 Seasonably cooler, less humid and rain-free conditions are expected through late week and into the weekend.
520 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020 Seasonably cooler, less humid and rain-free conditions are expected through late week and into the weekend.
724 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020 Strong upper level ridging will continue to build into the central Plains through Friday night.
624 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020 High pressure building into the mid Mississippi River Valley will provide dry weather and seasonable temperatures for the next several days. A cold front crossing the area Friday night should cool temperatures a few degrees for the weekend. High pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley region will be the main influence on central IL weather tonight and Friday, keeping conditions dry and blocking any significant moisture transport into the area. A cold front will push into the area from the north Friday night, lowering temperatures a few degrees for the weekend.
902 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020 High pressure building into the mid Mississippi River Valley will provide dry weather and seasonable temperatures for the next several days. A cold front crossing the area Friday night should cool temperatures a few degrees for the weekend. High pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley region will be the main influence on central IL weather tonight and Friday, keeping conditions dry and blocking any significant moisture transport into the area. A cold front will push into the area from the north Friday night, lowering temperatures a few degrees for the weekend.
803 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020 A reinforcing cold front will push through the region early on Friday.
849 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2020 Quiet evening in store with just a few clouds over the area with lows expected to drop into the 50s overnight on the plains and 30s and 40s in the high country. Friday will be another warm day with temperatures back into the 90s for the lower elevations under mostly sunny skies. Kept lower pops for the higher elevations of Grand and Summit counties with just isolated storms possible by the afternoon. For Friday, it will be warmer both at the surface and aloft. Flow aloft transitions to southwest as the ridge over the region slowly slides east Colorado.
A cold front will push through the area by late Friday night setting the stage for a much cooler and wetter weather pattern. I expected this activity to drift to the north overnight with additional showers and embedded thunderstorms setting up along the Cascades as an upper-level trough approaches. Clearing over SE WA and NC Idaho tomorrow will allow for the atmosphere to destabilize and as the trough and associated cold front swings inland, we will see the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail.
/issued 343 AM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): A mid level trough of low pressure swings underneath the ridge and into Deep South Texas to start this weekend, with potentially the best chance of rain on the board in the past week.
407 AM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022 Today through tonight: a seasonably strong subtropical ridge will be the primary weather influence in the near term, but an upper level col between the two primary ridge centers is noted in the guidance over the forecast area, and this will help to focus deep layer moisture and scattered diurnally driven showers/storms.
Still awaiting for convective initiation to take place along the higher terrain of NE TN and SW VA generally from Sevier County northward. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 72 90 73 89 / 40 30 60 20 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 71 89 71 89 / 50 40 70 20 80 Oak Ridge, TN 87 70 88 71 88 / 50 40 70 20 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 68 86 68 86 / 70 50 70 10 70.
1028 AM EDT Fri Aug 5 2022 A broad lower tropospheric ridge extends from the western north Atlantic to the southeast U. There were no distinct troughs at these lower elevations, with upper troughing well- removed over the Ohio/mid Mississippi Valley as well as an upper cyclone far northeast of the northern Bahamas. Another upper low was near the Yucatan Channel. No doubt the upper low to our southwest combined with the low-to-mid ridging to our northeast was helping to maintain light easterlies at high altitudes and the current deep- layer low shear environment. Continuing from synopsis, high pressure will strengthen across the Florida Keys coastal waters through the weekend, which will result in an increase in east to southeast breezes.
423 AM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022 A prefrontal trough is beginning to move through western North Dakota (09Z) with a cold front across the northwest. An upper level short wave trough is going to progress through the region today. This will move the low-level thermal ridge, which brought the hot weather to region yesterday, eastward over the Red River Valley. Temperature are expected to remain warm for much of the area this afternoon as compressional warming from a cold front could increase highs into the upper 80s to 90s. Thunderstorms and showers are possible this afternoon as a cold front moves from the northwest to southeast.
/issued 351 AM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022/ Early morning upper-level water vapor imagery depicts an area of high pressure centered over northeastern New Mexico, and will shunt monsoonal moisture to the west through the day.
/EC/ Today through tonight: a seasonably strong subtropical ridge will be the primary weather influence in the near term, but an upper level col between the two primary ridge centers is noted in the guidance over the forecast area, and this will help to focus deep layer moisture and scattered diurnally driven showers/storms.
651 AM EDT Fri Aug 5 2022 High pressure east of Bermuda will bring seasonable heat and widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms Friday and Saturday with afternoon temperatures a bit warmer due to the reduced cloud cover and precipitation.
The cold front is currently located south of Minot and north of Dickinson. Areas behind the front could see cooler temperatures this afternoon. A prefrontal trough is beginning to move through western North Dakota (09Z) with a cold front across the northwest. An upper level short wave trough is going to progress through the region today. This will move the low-level thermal ridge, which brought the hot weather to region yesterday, eastward over the Red River Valley. Temperature are expected to remain warm for much of the area this afternoon as compressional warming from a cold front could increase highs into the upper 80s to 90s. Thunderstorms and showers are possible this afternoon as a cold front moves from the northwest to southeast.
1002 AM EDT Fri Aug 5 2022 High pressure east of Bermuda will bring seasonable heat and widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms.
555 AM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022 (Today and tonight) Another day of excessive heat is in store due to the upper level ridge remaining across the area.
1045 AM EDT Fri Aug 5 2022 Morning Cape sounding and wind profilers show deep E/SE flow across the area on the south side of the Atlc ridge axis.
352 AM MDT Fri Aug 5 2022 Noticeably cooler temperatures are expected today in the wake yesterday's wind and thunderstorms.
A warmer and drier pattern will return for the weekend with storms more isolated across Mono and Mineral Counties.
541 AM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022 The mid/upper ridge centered across the Southern High Plains tonight is progged to build slowly east and northeastward across the Central Plains through the weekend.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible again today as a low pressure system migrates off the North Coast. Instability continues to persist across the region in response to a cut-off low pressure system migrating around the East Pacific. The low pressure system and residual mid level monsoonal moisture will continue to support the potential of more activity but some ridging aloft extending from the east may finally mitigate storm development beginning this weekends.
A weak upper level shear axis will extend from east Arkansas to the lower Ohio River valley, bisecting upper level ridge centers over the southern plains and the Southeast.
643 AM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022 (Today through Saturday) A weak trough axis is centered over West Tennessee with low level moisture pooling along a convergence zone in western Kentucky where heavy rain has been falling over the last few hours. Regardless, more scattered showers and storms are expected today as Middle Tennessee is sandwiched between the western upper high and the Bermuda high to the east.
449 AM MDT Fri Aug 5 2022 Between low pressure over Alberta and high pressure to the south, upper flow over the northern plains is weakly ridged. Before the cold front makes its way through the CWA, temperatures will warm into the 90s to around 105 today, hottest across central SD. MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg will develop across south central SD in the afternoon, as southerly winds advect in warm, moist air ahead of the trough. Storms may develop along the cold front, but shear in that area is not impressive.
623 AM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022 (Today through Saturday) The Subtropical Ridge lifts north allowing an inverted trough to move west into our eastern areas today, over the rest of our area tonight, and into northeastern Mexico on Saturday. Forcing by heating, the trough, and the seabreeze will generate isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms east of the I-35 corridor this afternoon into early evening, and near the Coastal Plains Saturday morning spreading west to near US 83 in the afternoon. Today will be hot, though slightly "cooler" than yesterday as lower level thicknesses and 925-850 MB temperatures decrease slightly.
119 PM PDT Fri Aug 5 2022 Cooler today with increased onshore flow. As of 1 PM, nearly all Valley communities were running 6 to 12 deg F cooler compared to 24 hours ago, largely thanks to the morning cloud cover. Northern California finds itself between a broad upper-level ridge to our east (centered over the Southern Plains), as well as an upper-level low to our west (centered roughly 700 miles west of San Francisco). Several degrees of warming can be expected for the second half of the weekend as the upper-level ridge builds west towards the Four Corners region.
1021 AM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022 (Issued 1020 AM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022) High pressure over southern Canada has shifted winds to the east but speeds remain light. Moisture in the low/mid levels is pushing across the lake and into the northern portions of the area with some low stratus evident in satellite and observations.
(This evening through Saturday) Temperatures have warmed well into the 90s to around 100 degrees early this afternoon, with highs expected to be just one or two degrees cooler than yesterday. While we expect to continue to be warmer than normal on Saturday, temperatures should cool again by a few degrees, so will not re- issue the Heat Advisory for tomorrow. However, if it appears that temperatures and/or heat index values will be warmer on subsequent shifts, a new advisory may be issued.
The clouds will also keep temperatures a little cooler today in the Treasure Valley and the forecast has been updated to show slightly cooler temperatures than the previous forecast.
131 PM EDT Fri Aug 5 2022 High pressure east of Bermuda will bring seasonable heat and widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms.
Warm and humid temps expected with lows in the lower/middle 70s inland, and upper 70s/near 80 degrees along the Atlantic Coast.
Some thunderstorms especially tomorrow afternoon in the Upper Snake Plain could produce very heavy rain with a cold front dropping down into the area impacting mainly our northeast areas (the Upper Snake plain, Arco desert, Island Park/Driggs, and, to a lesser degree, the Caribou Highlands).
Bermuda high pressure will dominate the weather at the surface producing near normal temperatures. Despite the presence of strong ridging, a few showers and thunderstorms are expected each day during the afternoon. A pattern change is possible by mid-week as a trough develops over the Great Lakes region. Surface and upper level ridging will strengthen over the forecast area today. Temperatures have warmed up into the mid to upper 80s so far, with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Highs should peak somewhere in the low 90s. Forcing will be limited with ridging in place over the area with showers and storms diminishing quickly this evening as we lose heating. Tonight, some low clouds and fog may develop with temperatures dropping into the low to mid 70s.
358 PM EDT Fri Aug 5 2022 High pressure east of Bermuda will bring seasonable heat and isolated to widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the next several days.
Expanded shower coverage a little more northward tonight ahead of an approaching upper level trough that will cross the area Saturday/Saturday night. Noticeably cooler temperatures are expected today in the wake yesterday's wind and thunderstorms.
233 PM EDT Fri Aug 5 2022 Upper low E of the Bahamas as seen in satellite imagery this afternoon to slowly retrograde and move towards to FL Peninsula Saturday with some drier air aloft spreading ahead of the feature.
Upper-level ridging remains extended across the Southeast acting to suppress thunderstorm development and intensity with generally isolated coverage. Highs for today and tomorrow will reach the lower to mid 90s with afternoon heat indices in the low 100s.
High pressure will continue to build into the region from the northeast through the period in the wake of the weak upper disturbance that plagued us with wet weather the past couple of days. As for temps, expecting lows tonight to range from the low to mid 70s north of I-10, and mid to upper 70s south. On Saturday, expect highs to range in the low to mid 90s across the area.
High pressure has helped to clear out the clouds around MBL and produce sunny to partly cloudy skies this afternoon.
ahead of a cold front that should bring some relief to the heat along with a chance for thunderstorms for the latter half of the weekend. but despite the axis of the low level jet being across the local area.
A few more showers and storms may be possible late tonight into Saturday morning across northwest Arkansas on the eastern periphery of the upper level ridge.
Tonight, a weak cold front will drop into the northwest Sandhills. The cold front will forecast to progress southward on Saturday. As an upper trough approaches the Northern Plains, winds will increase in the mid and upper levels.
1056 AM MDT Fri Aug 5 2022 Between low pressure over Alberta and high pressure to the south, upper flow over the northern plains is weakly ridged. Before the cold front makes its way through the CWA, temperatures will warm into the 90s to around 105 today, hottest across central SD. MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg will develop across south central SD in the afternoon, as southerly winds advect in warm, moist air ahead of the trough. Storms may develop along the cold front, but shear in that area is not impressive.
243 PM EDT Fri Aug 5 2022 The highest coverage of the scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms has recently been over the western Straits. At the surface, broad ridging remains in place over the western North Atlantic extending west-southwest to the Carolinas and into north Florida. Upper ridging along the southeast Coast is being pinned by upper lows to the east as well as a smaller feature near the Yucatan Channel. Upper troughing is progressing through the Great Lakes and approaching the Ohio Valley. Through the weekend, the surface ridging strengthens slightly while extending further westward into the Gulf coast states.
mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies were common across the CWA as the upper level ridge of high pressure continued to expand eastward across the region. hot and humid conditions are expected across the CWA with the expansion of the ridge and upper 60/70+ dewpoints continuing. With far Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas being more on the eastern periphery of the high pressure center.
(This afternoon through Saturday night) Our dominant upper ridge remains centered across OK/KS this afternoon and is progged to drift further north into Saturday, maintaining deep easterly flow. With a subtle decrease in thickness and 850mb temperatures as a result, high temperatures will be a degree or two cooler than yesterday. Many locations in the Permian Basin and Pecos/Rio Grande valleys will see highs at or above 100 this afternoon with 90s confined to the higher elevations. As the center of the ridge drifts northward, our subtle cooling trend continues into Saturday. High temperatures will be about 2-3 degrees cooler than today's with most reaching the upper 90s and 100s along the river valleys.
Mid level air has advanced into the region from the south, but the low levels remain moist and buoyant.
230 PM MDT Fri Aug 5 2022 Current surface analysis shows cold front moving across the forecast area, located now from north central to southwest SD. Upper level analysis shows high pressure over the southern Plains, with west-southwest flow from the southwest US to the northern Plains. Temps range from the upper 80s over the higher Black Hills to around 105 toward south central SD. The main push of cooler air behind the front will come in from the northwest late today and tonight, bringing some brisk northwesterly winds as well.
1223 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022 (Today and tonight) Another day of excessive heat is in store due to the upper level ridge remaining across the area.
Northwest Gulf radar activity is increasing, however, and an approaching inverted trough is showing up at 700 and 500 mb for tonight and Saturday morning, moving west and exiting the area Saturday night.
Rest of today: Region remains in between two subtropical ridge centers, with one centered over TX Panhandle & another along E seaboard of the CONUS. With continued mean S-SE flow & divergence aloft between the two ridge axes, this will combine with decent moisture, nearing 2 inch PWs, for increased scattered diurnal showers & storms. Highs will be typical near climo in the low 90s, with heat indices topping out in the low 100s in NW ArkLaMiss Delta, while a few locations could peak near 105 deg. /DC/ Prior discussion below: Today through tonight: a seasonably strong subtropical ridge will be the primary weather influence in the near term, but an upper level col between the two primary ridge centers is noted in the guidance over the forecast area, and this will help to focus deep layer moisture and scattered diurnally driven showers/storms.
Thunderstorms in the Sierra Nevada will be limited through the weekend as the moisture tap is being shut off due to an approaching trough.
At the base of this large-scale trough, a short- wave disturbance is progged to sweep through Montana, mainly tomorrow (Saturday).
Radar has blossomed with convection continuing to push west into the region as the inverted upper-level trough moves inland. Increasing cloud cover and PoPs will once again lead to temperatures a few degrees cooler than we have experienced over the past few days.
222 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022 A persistent weak shear axis is forecast within the overall mid level ridge across much of the central and east U.
1020 AM MDT Fri Aug 5 2022 Expanded shower coverage a little more northward tonight ahead of an approaching upper level trough that will cross the area Saturday/Saturday night. Noticeably cooler temperatures are expected today in the wake yesterday's wind and thunderstorms.
The CWA will remain positioned beneath a weakness in the upper- level ridge on Saturday. In the continued absence of synoptic- scale forcing, convection will once again be diurnally-driven and will be modulated by mesoscale features such as outflow boundaries and differential heating along morning cloud decks and/or heating along the higher terrain across the far north. Martin Fcst period starts with continued ample moisture advection out of the SE between a dampening broad upper ridge in the central CONUS and the Bermuda ridge to the east.
Much of the better moisture aloft is situated over the Rockies where storms are already developing in central New Mexico this afternoon with the help from a lee trough.
In the upper levels a large heat dome high pressure center is right on top of Kansas leading to weak upper level winds at 500 mb and will be the focus for more heat leading into Saturday. Highs will be in the lower to mid 100s.
Still awaiting for convective initiation to take place along the higher terrain of NE TN and SW VA generally from Sevier County northward. Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 90 72 90 72 / 30 60 40 40 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 89 71 89 71 / 40 70 20 50 30 Oak Ridge, TN 70 88 71 89 71 / 40 70 20 40 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 86 69 86 68 / 50 70 10 50 20.
102 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022 The mid/upper ridge centered across the Southern High Plains tonight is progged to build slowly east and northeastward across the Central Plains through the weekend.
An upper ridge will build into the area over the next few days for a warming trend.
Confidence is fairly high that Saturday remains entirely dry with skinny upper level ridge and associated subsidence overhead.
Upper level high pressure remains centered just to our north and the dome will slowly drift eastward with little overall change in strength.
The thunderstorms should end before midnight but the light rain will continue in Twin Falls County through the night, then clear from the northwest Saturday as an upper trough moves through.
540 PM MDT Fri Aug 5 2022 Current surface analysis shows cold front moving across the forecast area, located now from north central to southwest SD. Upper level analysis shows high pressure over the southern Plains, with west-southwest flow from the southwest US to the northern Plains. Temps range from the upper 80s over the higher Black Hills to around 105 toward south central SD. The main push of cooler air behind the front will come in from the northwest late today and tonight, bringing some brisk northwesterly winds as well.
A persistent weak shear axis is forecast within the overall mid level ridge across much of the central and east U.