Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
South winds will pick up thru the morning out ahead of an approaching cold front. 850 mb cold front arrives about 2 hours after sfc front passes through and it is with this 850 mb front where winds will ramp up as mixing will increase and possibly reach 725/750 mb starting mid afternoon in the DVL basin and spreading east. Heading into mid-week, the weather will quiet down as a ridge begins to build into the northern plains. 850mb Temperatures will be on the rise after the cold front earlier this week, as will the surface temperatures. The ridge will hold strong in the upper levels for the foreseeable future. These higher winds will manifest themselves Monday across the region as the boundary layer connects to the low level winds, facilitating wind gusts upwards of 50 mph.
High pressure will be swinging through the area today so look for for fair conditions across the region. Tonight will begin to see a warm front lift northward out of the Gulf of Mexico. The warm front will slide through the area on Tuesday and increase southerly flow across the area.
The front, and the upper trough driving it, will move onshore later this evening.
An upper level trough moving across the Plains Tuesday will be the main focus in the short term period. WAA on Tuesday will return temperatures to the low to mid 70s and moisture advection will also return dewpoints to the upper 50s to near 60. By Tuesday afternoon, a warm front lifts northward from the Gulf of Mexico, bringing increased rain chances Tuesday afternoon/evening.
301 AM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 High pressure slides east today, and return flow southerlies develop. Highs will be seasonally mild in the lower to middle 60s. A cold front approaches from the west Tuesday, and with the high to the east, the gradient tightens/resulting in a breezy day. which helps warm temps toward/into the lower 70s for highs. The surface tongue of dew points struggles into the lower 50s this far north, and may be an inhibitor regarding sustained heavy rains.
A cold front with a northerly wind shift will follow Tuesday morning. In response winds across the forecast area will come out of the south to southwest, picking up some late tonight as pressures fall in response to an upper level short wave trough moving across the Cascades toward the northern Rockies. Further pressure falls as the upper trough moves to the northern Plains will see a further increase in wind speeds, up solidly into a range from 15-30 mph. Building thermal ridge resulting from the robust low level warm advection will push temperatures into the 80s for close to all of the forecast area Monday afternoon.
/issued 1004 PM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021/ High pressure will continue to build into the Mid-South tonight. Midafternoon surface analysis showed a pressure ridge north TX and OK. With clear skies and dewpoints in the lower and mid 30s, patchy frost will be possible, mainly north and east of the Memphis metro. Significant height falls will impact the Great Plains Monday night, as a broad and relatively deep upper level longwave trof drops into the Rockies. Height falls will continue through the day Tuesday, inducing strong low level return flow off over the lower MS River valley. A low level jet will strengthen to around 45 kt Tuesday evening, strengthening warm advection and convergence over a progressive surface cold front.
The associated cold front should move through the Northland. Mostly sunny conditions will be prominent as a ridge and then zonal flow moves over the Northland. A warm front will pass through the region on Monday, bringing gusty southerly winds. Winds are expected to remain gusty for these areas through the next 48 hours as a series of cold fronts pass through going into Tuesday.
/Issued 1132 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021/ The cold front has now cleared the forecast area, though lingering high clouds remain. High pressure builds in behind the exiting front with a much cooler and drier airmass moving in across the state Tonight and Monday.
The associated cold front should move through the Northland. Mostly sunny conditions will be prominent as a ridge and then zonal flow moves over the Northland. Winds will also shift from southerly to westerly Monday evening as a cold front passes through. A warm front will pass through the region on Monday, bringing gusty southerly winds. Winds are expected to remain gusty for these areas through the next 48 hours as a series of cold fronts pass through going into Tuesday.
210 AM EDT Mon Mar 29 2021 High pressure will build across the region today, and offshore tonight into Tuesday providing dry weather.
316 AM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 Winds are turning southerly across the area early this morning as a high pressure center moves through the lower Mississippi Valley. The southerly winds will rapidly increase today as the pressure gradient tightens up due to a low pressure system that will deepen over the central plains. Additionally, efficient mixing in the lower levels of the atmosphere will allow for lower dewpoints at the surface, resulting in afternoon relative humidity values of 20-30 percent across the CWA. A cold front will move through the area from northwest to southeast on Tuesday, with a delay in moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico on the back side of the departing high pressure.
345 AM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 WV imagery shows West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under a dirty broad ridge in between storm systems, allowing for a pleasant couple of days before the next trough arrives. Thicknesses will increase today, allowing temperatures to rebound above normal as return flow strengthens in response to leeside troughing on the Front Range. Tuesday, the aforementioned trough will dig to the Four Corners, and develop a modest mountain wave signature over the Guadalupes. A cold front is expected to slow/stall just to the north due to diurnal heating, allowing most locations to reach afternoon highs in the 80s or better. The cold front will surge south with the abeyance of peak heating, and another watch has been issued for gap winds through Guadalupe Pass.
1108 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021 An upper trough will pass over Pennsylvania tonight, then high pressure will build into the state from the Ohio Valley on Monday.
Dry weather and decreasing cloud cover today as high pressure settles in over the region. High pressure shifts east Tuesday, increasing warm advection within southwest flow.
1132 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021 The cold front has now cleared the forecast area, though lingering high clouds remain. High pressure builds in behind the exiting front with a much cooler and drier airmass moving in across the state Tonight and Monday.
A passing weather system brings cooler temperatures Monday along with breezy north to east winds which will last into Tuesday. Warmer temperatures return by the middle of the week. This will be a dry front for Norcal, but it will bring gusty north to east winds and cooler, drier air. Visible satellite shows clear skies remaining over interior Northern California today as high pressure continues over California. Early afternoon temperatures are ranging from similar to this time yesterday in the northern Sacramento Valley up to 10 degrees warmer in the Central Sierra foothills. Most locations are forecast to end up a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Ensembles then show an upper level trough currently moving through the PacNW will slide south to our east tomorrow.
1236 AM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 Water vapor imagery currently shows troughing across the eastern United States with ridging across the Rocky Mountains. Overnight, an area of high pressure currently over the Southern Plains will begin moving eastward, leading to winds shifting to the south over the CWA.
223 AM EDT Mon Mar 29 2021 High pressure will build into the state from the Ohio Valley and yield dry weather for today and Tuesday.
838 PM PDT Sun Mar 28 2021 Ridging aloft will be replaced by weak upper troughing on Monday. This will lead to onshore winds Monday and cooler air spreading inland from the coast.
1004 PM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021 High pressure will continue to build into the Mid-South tonight. Midafternoon surface analysis showed a pressure ridge north TX and OK. With clear skies and dewpoints in the lower and mid 30s, patchy frost will be possible, mainly north and east of the Memphis metro. Significant height falls will impact the Great Plains Monday night, as a broad and relatively deep upper level longwave trof drops into the Rockies. Height falls will continue through the day Tuesday, inducing strong low level return flow off over the lower MS River valley. A low level jet will strengthen to around 45 kt Tuesday evening, strengthening warm advection and convergence over a progressive surface cold front.
Tuesday we'll be squeezed between high pressure off the East Coast and a cold front advancing from the west that, by evening, will extend from the Great Lakes through the American Bottom to Texas.
High pressure currently in place over the region will remain in place through tonight before a weak system breaks it down on Monday. A cold front will sweep through Monday night in response to an upper level trough tat will brush the area.
Ahead of this upper impulse, Lee troughing continues to deepen which has resulted in a very strong low level jet with VAD wind profile from KICT showing 55kt by 3,000ft. Cold front is expected to surge through the forecast area tonight, moving through KICT on hour or two before sunrise. We are looking for highs in the 70s area wide by Sat with even warmer temps for Sun. For any fires that are not able to be contained by early this evening, a cold front is expected to move through central KS after midnight, flipping winds around to the north.
Clear skies and dewpoints in the 30-35 degree range will set the stage for strong radiational cooling overnight, with lows predicted to fall into the m-u 30s (slightly warmer near large bodies of water) by daybreak. Generally clear skies are forecast Mon and Mon night, as high pressure builds in from the west. The cooler trend will continue, with high temperatures warming into the lower 60s. More sun could make for slightly warmer conditions, so a bump up of temps into the mid 60s could be needed. Not as cool Mon night with lows in the low/mid 40s. The trough moving into the Pacific Northwest this afternoon will deepen and broaden over the Plains Monday before approaching the SE CONUS on Tuesday.
243 AM MDT Mon Mar 29 2021 Deep upper trough has dropped into Washington and Oregon early this morning. Surface pressure gradient ahead of an advancing cold front has tightened along the western foothills with winds gusting to 71 mph at Livingston. Cold front was lagging a little behind model projections and has gone trough Butte last hour. Still expecting cold frontal passage early this morning over western and central zones and is expected to clear the southeast corner of the state by 8 am. Tuesday will be cooler and windy (although not nearly as windy as today). TWH The extended models continue to insist in a strong ridge building over the region for the latter part of the work week and into the weekend.
The combination of increased Atlantic moisture convergence associated with the trough, and a mixture of sea/lake breezes will result in scattered showers and possibly even a storm or two across interior Palm Beach county and the Alligator Alley corridor today. Persistent mid-upper ridging should gradually weaken across the eastern Gulf and Bahamas in response to a sharpening trough progressing from the central CONUS to the Eastern Seaboard late in the period.
Moisture begins to increase from the south on Tuesday as warm front lifts northward ahead of the next rain maker.
135 AM EDT Mon Mar 29 2021 High pressure will build over the area today, then a weak upper disturbance will affect the region later tonight through Tuesday night.
/Today through Tuesday/ High pressure remains at the sfc under zonal flow aloft, and this will result in mostly clear skies and seasonably warm temperatures today. However, an upper trof will begin to dig sewd across the Rockies tonight into Tuesday, forcing high pressure ewd and bringing sly winds back to the region. Upper trof will begin to eject into the Plains by Tuesday aftn, providing increasing lift across our region. This convection may also be enhanced by the developing baroclinic zone just to our nw and increasing deep layer shear associated with the approaching trof axis.
Clear skies and light winds will be maintained into Monday afternoon as high pressure settles overhead. Wind gusts will also slowly decrease although wind gusts to 25 mph will still be possible through much of the evening before the pressure gradient begins to slacken overnight as surface ridging builds east over the central Great Lakes. This ridge will also promote clearing skies overnight with the clearing process beginning slowly this evening. Return southerly flow on the backside of this ridge will lead to some moderation in temperatures on Monday (aided by full late March sunshine). Expect highs to climb back into the lower to mid 50s. This cloud cover will be associated with a cold front and parent upper trough that will surge southeast through the area Tuesday evening/night as strong low pressure winds up over Hudson Bay.
126 AM EDT Mon Mar 29 2021 [Through 06Z Tuesday] Cold front will move south of region this morning, with high pressure building to the north. As the high builds the flow will become more onshore, which will lead to gusty winds near the coast. A cold front will be pushing across southeast GA this evening bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms after 6 pm. Cooler temperatures by morning with lows in the lower 50s north to lower 60s south.
Warmer temperatures will be in store Monday into Tuesday before a cold front arrives with another chance for showers and falling temperatures. Mixed precip showers are finally winding down as impacts of departing trough as well as cold air aloft/diurnal uptick are diminishing. A deep, cold upper low centered over the northern Great Lakes is responsible for today's gusty northwest winds and mix of rain, snow, and sleet showers. The trough axis currently overhead has 500 mb temperatures as low as -32 degrees. Monday will then be a much milder day, with temperatures warming into the 50s as high pressure ridging and subsidence move into the region. High pressure shifts east on Tuesday and increasing southerly flow and warm air advection will warm temperatures well into the 60s.
A tight pressure gradient will develop today with an area of high pressure in the Southeast, a lee trough in the High Plains, and a an advancing cold front coming from the northwest. With this dry air advecting into the region, and deeper mixing developing, think dewpoints will either stagnate from their current values in the low 30s or even drop slightly. Keeping dew points in the low 30s this afternoon yields relative humidity values around 20-25 percent across the area. A strong cold front will move through the area tonight and through the day tomorrow.
Temperatures across the island communities are in the mid 70s and dew points in the low to mid 70s. The ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic has relinquished some ground to a cold front over the eastern United States, and thus causing the pressure gradient to relax across the Florida Keys. The cold front currently extending from New England to the Gulf of Mexico is not expected to move past Central Florida in the next 24 hours. The ridge of high pressure is forecast to build back into the Gulf of Mexico and hold off the equatorial expansion of the frontal boundary.
A deep area of low pressure was located in eastern Saskatchewan this morning, with high pressure moving over eastern Lake Superior. Wind speeds and gusts will increase through the morning and be quite strong through the afternoon, as the low moves into northwest Ontario. A vigorous cold front will move across the area tonight. The gusty winds persist Tuesday and Tuesday night as another cold front drops through the region, along with the tight pressure gradient in place.
As temperatures continue to slowly fall, precipitation will become all snow and will be confined mainly to the I-80 corridor and the ridges. Lowering inversion heights and warm surface temperatures will limit snow accumulations which look to be focused on the highest ridge tops. Dry weather and decreasing cloud cover today as high pressure settles in over the region. High pressure shifts east Tuesday, increasing warm advection within southwest flow.
320 AM EDT Mon Mar 29 2021 Dry weather is expected today behind a cold front moving well offshore.
1106 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021 An upper trough will pass over Pennsylvania tonight, then high pressure will build into the state from the Ohio Valley on Monday.
Warmer temperatures will be expected Tuesday afternoon with the moderate to occasionally breezy southerly flow.
312 AM EDT Mon Mar 29 2021 Widespread clouds will linger across the area today as a decaying cold front stalls out over the Florida Peninsula. This will result in relatively cooler temperatures than what has been felt the last several days, but afternoon highs will still run a few degrees above normal for late March.
VFR conds will prevail under the influence of high pressure. High pressure continues to build in during the period promoting clear skies and calmer winds. Surface ridging will move east through the day Monday, heralding a return to southerly flow and increasing moisture. As an upper trough deepens over the upper Midwest late Monday, warm air and moisture advection will ramp up once more with at least isolated to scattered showers and some thunder moving into southern Arkansas by Tuesday morning. Coverage will expand some by Tuesday afternoon as large-scale forcing for ascent increases ahead of our next cold front which arrives just after the end of the period.
Low level winds shear will also be a concern for northeast Oklahoma sites around daybreak as the low level jet strengthens to 35-45 kt. This general area also looks poised to experience the highest grassland fire spread rates and a fire weather watch has been issued for accordingly. Winds will eventually relax somewhat Monday night as the next cold front nears with the front passing through much of the forecast area Tuesday.
127 AM EDT Mon Mar 29 2021 High pressure builds into the area today, then pushes off the coast Tuesday.
Monday: As the area remains under broad sfc ridging/subsidence at the start of the work week, dry air & quiet conditions will remain the norm. With light winds & recent rains, there shouldn't be fire danger issues, but humidity will drop into the low 30% range. /DC/ A deep upper low skirting just north of the Canadian/US border is setting up a trough over the western half of the country by tomorrow night. The deep trough digging in over the Plains amplifies the pattern considerably, and dry colder air is moving into the southeastern CONUS behind a cold front associated with the northern low.
/issued 251 PM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021/ The tail end of an upper trough centered over the Great Lakes this morning will sag across the area today. On Monday the next upper trough will swing across ID and will develop into a broad trough across the center of the country Tuesday.
Fire Weather Concerns Today: Surface pressure gradients will continue to tighten over the region today as a strong trough advances out of the Western U. One advantage of the drier conditions and strong southerly flow will be warmer temperatures. Less moisture allowing temperatures to warm more quickly in response to sunshine, warmer 850 mb temperatures and strong boundary layer mixing. Cold Front Sweeps in Tonight: A strong cold front should race through the region this evening.
A weak warm front will move north today leading to an increase in low level clouds as well as a slight chance for showers. Daytime highs should warm into the 70s this afternoon cooling into the lower 60s tonight. With the exception of temperatures in the mid 70s along the immediate coast, temperatures on Tuesday should warm into the 80s inland, with temperatures in the lower 90s across the western Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains.
Otherwise, high temperatures today are forecast to climb into the low to mid 70s. /Today through Tuesday/ High pressure remains at the sfc under zonal flow aloft, and this will result in mostly clear skies and seasonably warm temperatures today. However, an upper trof will begin to dig sewd across the Rockies tonight into Tuesday, forcing high pressure ewd and bringing sly winds back to the region. Upper trof will begin to eject into the Plains by Tuesday aftn, providing increasing lift across our region. This convection may also be enhanced by the developing baroclinic zone just to our nw and increasing deep layer shear associated with the approaching trof axis.
405 AM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 High pressure nearly overhead early this morning is yielding clear skies across the region with the exception of the immediate coastline. With high pressure in control at the surface and a good bit of dry air through the atmospheric column, it's shaping up to be a rather nice day especially compared with the last several days. Plenty of sunshine early with perhaps a few more clouds by late afternoon as the high begins sliding east and low level return flow becomes reestablished. Said flow will lift a warm front out of the gulf Tuesday providing a weak, but sufficient, focus for scattered shower and thunderstorm development from late Tuesday morning through the evening with showers waning overnight as the boundary continues north. An upper trof digging southeast across the central U.
/22/ Today and tonight: Dry through the period with slightly cooler than normal temperatures today and near normal temperatures tonight. Early morning surface analysis had a 1026mb high centered over the Tennessee valley that was ridging back to the southwest just to the west of our CWA. Under full insolation today but continued weak CAA temperatures will top out from the upper 60s north to the lower 70s south. Under weak return flow tonight and some high cloud return by morning, low temperatures will bottom out warmer than this morning and range from the mid 40s northeast to the mid 50s southwest which is a couple degrees warmer than normal.
354 AM MDT Mon Mar 29 2021 A strong cold front will cross the region today, with a cool airmass remaining in place through Tuesday. High pressure will build across the region by midweek and remain in place heading into the upcoming weekend, resulting in a substantial warming trend.
This is likely due to the lingering influence of the old cold front and persistent surface troffing near the lower TX coastline. The influence of the coastal front/troffing will likely diminish later today and tonight as the surface ridging strengthens and washes out the surface troffing. If some sunshine breaks through the cld cover later this afternoon, the cooler high afternoon temps may be in jeopardy.
429 AM MDT Mon Mar 29 2021 Based on this morning's observations across the central and northern Rocky Mountains Region and the state of Wyoming, surface cold front is just starting to push into northwest Wyoming with winds shifting into the north around Yellowstone NP. Do not expect widespread strong winds, but this is typically a favorable pattern for the Cheyenne Ridge with strong northwest winds and strong subsidence behind the front.
906 AM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 High pressure at the surface is promoting tranquil weather across the Tennessee valley this morning. Based on current obs/trends, have adjusted temperatures up a degree or two and think most locations should peak in the low to mid 60s by this afternoon. An upper level trough moving across the Plains Tuesday will be the main focus in the short term period. WAA on Tuesday will return temperatures to the low to mid 70s and moisture advection will also return dewpoints to the upper 50s to near 60. By Tuesday afternoon, a warm front lifts northward from the Gulf of Mexico, bringing increased rain chances Tuesday afternoon/evening.
519 AM EDT Mon Mar 29 2021 High pressure will build into the state from the Ohio Valley and yield dry weather for today and Tuesday.