Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today and Tonight) Strong cold front has moved through all but far southeast OK at this time, and any lingering post-frontal showers will move out of the forecast area over the next few hours.
Also, added POPS to Interstate 30 corridor around daybreak, as short-term progs continue to suggest a few showers or isolated thunderstorms will be possible along a cold front moving into the region at that time. Full FROPA associated with the longwave trough will begin to take place tomorrow morning. The cold front should exit the region by tomorrow evening, taking all the remaining cloud cover and precipitation chances with it. Since the cold front will likely be splitting the region in the afternoon, look for highs to range in the low-70s north, to upper-70s south. However, by tomorrow night, lows will drop into the low to upper-40s under clear skies and NW flow.
349 AM CDT Wed Apr 6 2022 Impacts and concerns today and tomorrow aplenty with wind and rain or wet snow as stacked low pressure affects the region.
1053 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022 (This evening through Wednesday) This afternoon, a surface cyclone was centered near the intersection of the Dakotas and Minnesota and latest mesonet observations place the associated cold front over far northwest Oklahoma. This cold front will continue to progress southward across Oklahoma and western north Texas this evening and overnight.
A strong cold front will enter far northern portions of the Big Country between 12 AM and 1 AM, with the front progressing south through the early morning hours. Winds will diminish briefly this evening before a strong cold front arrives around or just after midnight at Abilene and around 3 AM in San Angelo. Cooler, but very dry conditions are expected Wednesday across the area.
A deep upper low will be spinning over the western Great Lakes region during the period. A significant lobe of short wave energy rotating around the low will be carving out a deeper trough to our west, and a strong surface cold front will sweep across our area late this afternoon/early tonight. Damaging winds look to be the primary threat, although rotating updrafts and freezing levels generally not far from 11kft are favorable for large hail as well.
317 AM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022 Periodic precipitation chances are expected through the week with a series of crossing low pressure systems. Above normal highs are forecast with southerly flow ahead of approaching low pressure. While profiles will show skinny areas of CAPE strong support aloft will aid in development of thunder with added forcing from the cold front. Scattered showers will then be possible the remainder of the week as a cold upper low settles in across the eastern CONUS.
1106 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022 Periodic precipitation chances are expected through the week with a series of crossing low pressure systems. Rain and fog expected overnight as low pressure passes south of the region. Much of Wednesday will be dry during the day with southerly flow in place ahead of another low pressure system driving highs to 10+ degrees above average for the first week of April. While profiles will show skinny areas of CAPE strong support aloft will assure some development of thunder Wednesday afternoon and even Wednesday night with added forcing from the cold front. Scattered showers will then be possible the remainder of the week as a cold upper low settles in across the eastern CONUS.
146 AM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022 A low pressure system will move southeast of the region this evening. Visibilities will start improving from west to east later this morning as southerly winds pick up ahead of an advancing cold front.
130 AM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022 Periodic precipitation chances are expected through the week with a series of crossing low pressure systems. Rain and fog expected overnight as low pressure passes south of the region. Much of Wednesday will be dry during the day with southerly flow in place ahead of another low pressure system driving highs to 10+ degrees above average for the first week of April. While profiles will show skinny areas of CAPE strong support aloft will assure some development of thunder Wednesday afternoon and even Wednesday night with added forcing from the cold front. Scattered showers will then be possible the remainder of the week as a cold upper low settles in across the eastern CONUS.
Drier and cooler air will finally return by the weekend. This boundary should slowly push northward through the day, while a cold front begins moving towards the region from the west. The cold front should be moving int overnight tonight, with some shower activity still possible through 06z. Temperatures will still be mild ahead of the cold front, with readings in the lower to middle 60s.
/NEW/ /Through Wednesday Night/ A strong cold front has breached our northwest border as of this writing and will continue to barrel through the remainder of the forecast area through sunrise. Despite the breezy winds ushering cooler air into the region, strong solar insolation under mostly sunny skies will allow us to warm into the upper 60s along the Red River to mid 70s across portions of Central Texas. Wind speeds will finally decrease to near 10 mph or less this evening, resulting in a cooler night with low temperatures in the low to mid 40s.
1230 AM CDT Wed Apr 6 2022 (The rest of tonight) A strong cold front is moving southeast across the area and has reached the Interstate 44 corridor as of 10 pm. Tomorrow will be the first of several cool days across the FA as a very large low pressure system slowly moves through the Great Lakes region.
1119 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022 Low pressure will track south of Pennsylvania tonight.
But the front looks to be slightly faster than yesterdays runs, yielding a shorter window for the higher severe threat in the east from around mid afternoon until 6-7 pm. The cold front should be through the mid state by then, and temperatures will cool rapidly, leaving a near surface inversion and little to no instability. Still cant rule out an isolated tornado or two given the low level shear seen on the models.
A cold front currently extends from central Illinois through northeast Arkansas and into north central Texas. Temperatures will turn colder behind the front with highs in the lower 60s to around 80 degrees. The cold front will be east of the region tonight with high pressure slowly building in from the west.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 47 65 42 55 / 70 70 0 0 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 80 48 64 41 54 / 50 80 10 10 70 Oak Ridge, TN 78 45 64 40 54 / 60 80 10 10 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 48 62 38 52 / 20 80 10 20 80.
The upper/parent trof axis digs and plummets heights through the ensuing 24-72 hours. This will offer a continuing reinforcement of cool air with temps dropping to near 40 tonight and staying in the 50s tmrw, as the low sits/spins over the Great Lakes.
A deep cut off low has occluded at the sfc and we're seeing isentropic lift near the warm front produce this initial band of showers.
Eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois, and far northeast Missouri remain to the north of a warm front that stretches across northern Missouri. Discussion: The well advertised 500 MB closed low is forecast to dig into central Minnesota and Wisconsin by 12 UTC Wednesday. Also, vorticity rotating around the closed low will bring scattered rain showers to the area that will spread from north to south. High temperatures to range from the upper 40s along the highway 20 corridor to the mid 50s south of a Fairfield to Galesburg line.
222 AM CDT Wed Apr 6 2022 Rain showers along and behind a cold front, will push east into Indiana by late this morning.
1114 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022 Strong cold front continues to push south across the forecast area, with gusty N-NW winds for most locations except extreme SE KS. But with the lingering instability still around and some of the high rez CAMS showing a chance of post frontal showers, will keep some pops across SE KS for a few more hours. Ketcham There is a narrow/very conditional window for convection along the cold front early this evening in far southeast Kansas, though despite modest instability, strong shear would support a locally strong storm.
Surface analysis shows high pressure entered over the Atlantic Ocean east of Bermuda, with a ridge axis extending westward through the Florida Straits, and a complex arrangement of lows and fronts from the Appalachians westward to the Southern Plains. Aloft, fast westerly flow continues across the northern Gulf of Mexico, but the Keys and South Florida are under the influence of mid/upper level ridging centered over Cuba and the western Caribbean. This combined with the nearby low level ridge is providing large scale descent across our region, and keeping us free of any shower activity despite lingering above normal moisture.
Will go ahead and cancel the high wind warning for areas west of a Roundup to Billings line with this forecast package. Still looking at 2 to 4 inches of snowfall with locally a bit heavier in the higher hills around Ekalaka.
Morning Cape sounding shows an increase in SW flow in the low levels which will produce unseasonably hot and humid conditions for early April.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Early this morning, vertically stacked low pressure is centered across central MN. Rain steadily progresses east across the forecast area today with cooler temperatures flooding back into northern Michigan tonight. However, additional scattered shower activity likely to return through the overnight as lingering moisture pinwheels around parent low pressure upstream. Any snow accumulation late tonight likely to be negligible with maybe a skiff in a few spots in the higher terrain. Showery and Cooler. Upper level low pressure and an associated surface system sinks east southeastward across Wisconsin Thursday while weakening.
Current observations show temperatures in the lower 80s already along with dew points in the mid 70s. This southerly flow is thanks to our proximity of a low level ridge that is situated across the western North Atlantic. Relatively drier air is already moving into the Lower Keys, as seen by satellite derived precipitable water. Meanwhile, ridging in the mid and upper levels is centered over the western Caribbean, which will act to limit any convection over Cuba. The Florida Keys remains on the western periphery of a ridge located over the western North Atlantic and as such we will continue to see gentle to moderate southerly breezes through Thursday. This ridge will then slide east in response to an approach cold front that will clock breezes around to the northwest and freshen.
The trof will move south through wrn and ncntl Nebraska today. High wind gusts should develop ahead of the trof. The start time for the High Wind Warning across ncntl Nebraska has been moved up to 2 am CDT for these reasons.
620 AM CDT Wed Apr 6 2022 (Today and Tonight) Strong cold front has moved through all but far southeast OK at this time, and any lingering post-frontal showers will move out of the forecast area over the next few hours.
An upper level low pressure system over the Dakotas and western Minnesota continues to deepen as it moves slowly east today. The models show a subtle wave rotating around the west and southwest quadrant of the upper low with a tightening in the mid level geostrophic gradient and increasing 700 millibar winds over western Kansas. A High Wind Warning is in effect for central and southwest Kansas today and the High Wind Watch for Thursday has been upgraded to a High Wind Warning.
A cold front analyzed moving across W TN and W KY will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening. This along with at least weak solar insolation should contribute to increasing instability ahead of the cold front. Chattanooga Airport, TN 79 47 65 42 56 / 80 70 0 0 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 79 47 64 41 54 / 80 90 10 10 70 Oak Ridge, TN 78 45 64 40 54 / 90 80 10 10 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 77 48 63 38 53 / 20 90 10 20 80.
Thinking that the higher elevations between Detroit Lakes and Park Rapids north towards Itasca State Park will be the area that most likely sees some slushy accumulations into the early afternoon. Impacts and concerns today and tomorrow aplenty with wind and rain or wet snow as stacked low pressure affects the region. Wind speeds in the near sfc layer to 925mb per BUFkit soundings suggest mixing down winds of 40 to 50 kts efficiently in the valley and west warrant the high winds warning for gusts to 60mph which goes into effect at 10am. Questions and uncertainty exist with the bands impact this afternoon as above freezing temps and April sun angle melt accumulations or for the valley precip falls as plain rain this afternoon as suggested by the latest HRRR solns.
1045 AM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022 Periodic precipitation chances are expected through the week and weekend with a persistent low pressure pattern. Above normal highs are forecast with southerly flow ahead of approaching low pressure. While profiles will show skinny areas of CAPE, sufficient shear aloft will aid in development of thunder with added forcing from the cold front. Throughout the rest of the week, the low pressure over the Great Lakes will progressively mature and cut-off.
544 AM CDT Wed Apr 6 2022 Rain showers along and behind a cold front, will push east into Indiana by late this morning.
316 AM MDT Wed Apr 6 2022 Water vapor imagery is a sight to see this morning with a strong upper jet flowing over the Central Rockies and cold front plunging down the lee of this range. Temperature is just now knocking the door of freezing in the lower Colorado River Valley. With ridging moving in for Thursday temperatures in the afternoon should push to within 2 to 4 degrees either side of normal.
Breezy northerly flow is forecast to overspread the High Country today.
229 AM PDT Wed Apr 6 2022 High pressure will bring drier weather for the middle of the week.
An upper low over MN will continue to slowly move/drift to the east through the next 24-36hrs. Another wave rotating around the upper low is expected to bring more snow and strong winds to the CWA. Thus, the high wind warning will be allowed to continue today through Thursday.
528 AM MDT Wed Apr 6 2022 12Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period with gusty northwest flow, except for behind a backdoor cold front across the eastern plains. The northwest winds will usher in cooler air with high temperatures approximately 10 to as much as 30 degrees cooler than yesterday.
As the upper-level ridging takes place over the western CONUS, it reestablishes a mild and dry pattern with light winds. By Thursday, the upper-level ridge extending northeastward well into Canada begins to move across the Northern Rockies.
An inverted trough on the surface and aloft will continue moving south through eastern Montana and south western North Dakota this morning aiding in a band of precipitation, mainly snow, across the southwest. Precipitation chances will end as higher pressure and a ridge aloft builds into the west Thursday afternoon. The High Wind Warning may need to be extend to the west this afternoon with wind gust forecasted in the south central to gust around 55 mph.
428 AM CDT Wed Apr 6 2022 - Cooler today with westerly wind gusts as high as 35 mph and elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon.
646 AM CDT Wed Apr 6 2022 - Cooler today with westerly wind gusts as high as 35 mph and elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon.
The initial surge of stronger winds were now moving into northeast NE in response to a very strong closed low pressure system across central MN. This surge of stronger wind gusts will continue to move east southeast this morning, with the highest gusts aligning well within the current wind advisory area that was issued with yesterday's forecast package. And given the cooler temperatures in northeast NE and northwest IA Thursday morning, there could be a few snow showers mixed in, but really little if any accumulation other than a tenth of an inch. With the moist cyclonic flow Thursday evening, we could still see isolated showers of rain, changing to snow along and east of the Highway 77 corridor.
For late tonight and Thursday some upper level energy will be moving through the trough over the eastern half of the U. with an associated cold front moving across the region.
South to southwest winds this morning will increase to exercise caution speeds this afternoon and remain elevated while shifting to the west and northwest through tonight and Thursday as a cold front moves through the region.
Gusty and cooler Thursday with elevated fire weather conditions.
956 AM CDT Wed Apr 6 2022 Rain showers along and behind a cold front, will push east into Indiana by late this morning.
A deep upper low will remain over the western Great Lakes with strong northwest mid and lower tropospheric winds over Oklahoma.
535 AM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022 Periodic precipitation chances are expected through the week with a series of crossing low pressure systems. Above normal highs are forecast with southerly flow ahead of approaching low pressure. While profiles will show skinny areas of CAPE strong support aloft will aid in development of thunder with added forcing from the cold front. Scattered showers will then be possible the remainder of the week as a cold upper low settles in across the eastern CONUS.
1051 AM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022 A cold front will move through the Ohio Valley today providing showers and a few thunderstorms. An upper level low centered over the Great Lakes will produce additional chances of showers and much cooler temperatures from late this week into the start of the weekend. Cold air advection will produce low temperatures in the upper 30s west to the low 40s east. For Thursday, the upper level low over the upper Midwest begins to slowly wobble southeast.
A cold front currently extends from central Illinois through northeast Arkansas and into north central Texas. Temperatures will turn colder behind the front with highs in the lower 60s to around 80 degrees. The cold front will be east of the region tonight with high pressure slowly building in from the west. Temperatures will be cooler tonight with lows Thursday morning with lows in the low to mid 40s. Thursday will be a dry day as high pressure continues to slowly build into the region.
856 AM MDT Wed Apr 6 2022 Temperatures have rebounded back to above freezing this morning across the Grand Valley, Eastern Uinta Basin, and the Arches/Grand Flat area. Water vapor imagery is a sight to see this morning with a strong upper jet flowing over the Central Rockies and cold front plunging down the lee of this range. Temperature is just now knocking the door of freezing in the lower Colorado River Valley. With ridging moving in for Thursday temperatures in the afternoon should push to within 2 to 4 degrees either side of normal.
629 AM CDT Wed Apr 6 2022 (12Z TAFS) Cold front has pushed to near the Rio Grande and gusty N wind will continue to decrease through midday. (Today through Thursday afternoon) Upper low centered over the Great Lakes region this morning has a broad trough extending down through the middle of the country. This low will continue to wrap up today. and Thursday as a ridge builds over the Western US. Early this morning a cold front is pushing through SE NM and the Permian Basin with a N wind gusting 30kts+. Looking for temps today 10 to 20 degrees cooler than yesterday with little change for Thursday.
523 AM MDT Wed Apr 6 2022 Water vapor imagery is a sight to see this morning with a strong upper jet flowing over the Central Rockies and cold front plunging down the lee of this range. Temperature is just now knocking the door of freezing in the lower Colorado River Valley. With ridging moving in for Thursday temperatures in the afternoon should push to within 2 to 4 degrees either side of normal.
Isolated strong storms were still ongoing this morning as a cold front made its way through the state from the northwest. At the same time, there will be ridging over the western United States.
509 AM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022 Low pressure will track south of Pennsylvania tonight. A slow moving occluded front will push across the region Wednesday night into Thursday, then the associated upper level trough will pass over the area this weekend. Light rain has overspread the southern half of the forecast area as of 01Z, as warm advection ramps up ahead of low pressure lifting northeast along the central Appalachians. Upper level ridging builds over the region on Wednesday, but continued moist low level easterly flow should maintain lingering low clouds and spotty drizzle, mainly in the morning and across the Laurel Highlands where orographic forcing is strongest. Mature low pressure system is progged to approach from the Grt Lks Wednesday night, spreading showers into the region along axis of southerly low level jet and plume of GOMEX moisture.
(06Z TAFS) Currently have a cold front that has recently entered the northern CWA and is rapidly moving south. (Today through Thursday afternoon) Upper low centered over the Great Lakes region this morning has a broad trough extending down through the middle of the country. This low will continue to wrap up today. and Thursday as a ridge builds over the Western US. Early this morning a cold front is pushing through SE NM and the Permian Basin with a N wind gusting 30kts+. Looking for temps today 10 to 20 degrees cooler than yesterday with little change for Thursday.
230 AM PDT Wed Apr 6 2022 High pressure will bring drier weather for the middle of the week.
A ridge of high pressure is forecast to build over the nrn Rockies today and remain in control through Fri, supporting mostly clear skies, dry conditions, only light winds, and a warming trend.
A cold front will push across the region from west to east from late this morning through this afternoon.
716 AM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022 Periodic precipitation chances are expected through the week with a series of crossing low pressure systems. Above normal highs are forecast with southerly flow ahead of approaching low pressure. While profiles will show skinny areas of CAPE strong support aloft will aid in development of thunder with added forcing from the cold front. Scattered showers will then be possible the remainder of the week as a cold upper low settles in across the eastern CONUS.
It should then be mostly dry until afternoon when additional jet energy and a weak surface cold front approach and bring more rain showers. Jet energy rotating around the upper low will continue to produce shower activity tonight and tomorrow, especially in central and northcentral Wisconsin closer to the upper low. As temperatures aloft cool, the precipitation should gradually change to snow, especially at night when boundary layer temperatures are cooler. Lows tonight will be a few degrees above normal with highs Thursday about five degrees cooler than normal.
534 AM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022 Periodic precipitation chances are expected through the week with a series of crossing low pressure systems. Above normal highs are forecast with southerly flow ahead of approaching low pressure. While profiles will show skinny areas of CAPE strong support aloft will aid in development of thunder with added forcing from the cold front. Scattered showers will then be possible the remainder of the week as a cold upper low settles in across the eastern CONUS.
626 AM CDT Wed Apr 6 2022 (Today and tonight) Early this morning, a cold front is racing southward toward the Texas Hill Country. The cooler airmass moving in will lead to high temperatures today in the low to mid 70s.