Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
350 AM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021 High pressure will continue to extend across the Carolinas today. Forecast is on track as temperatures are currently in the low/mid 80s and dew points in the mid/ upper 60s. A few clouds overhead as high pressure to our east will weaken overnight, no showers or storms are expected overnight. A warm front currently over southern GA/SC, which is separating dew points in the 60s to its north to dew points in the lower-to-mid-70s to its south, will slowly lift north through tonight. Lows tonight will also be a degree or two warmer than last night, in the upper-60s to near 70, with increasing clouds in the south. Under the continued influence of high pressure ahead of the remnants of Elsa, VFR conditions are expected for most of the 06Z TAF period.
High pressure back into the region through the weekend and persists through the remainder of the forecast period with a typical summer pattern consisting of seabreeze showers and storms returning.
1158 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021 Key Points: -Cold front will bring the threat of thunderstorms across the area on Wednesday.
1231 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021 High pressure continues over the southern U. and a cold front will move to southeast Kansas by Wednesday evening. High pressure continues to control the weather across the CWA. Have seen a few showers/storms form this aftn, esp acrs the srn sections of AR, where dewpoints readings were in the low to mid 70s.
303 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021 An upper level high continues to remain parked over the desert southwest with some degree of flattening as a disturbance moves east out of British Columbia. This trough has sent a cold front into the Texas Panhandle where convection is slowly moving southward. Things will remain fairly quiet through late week and into the early weekend as upper high pressure to our west dominates the region.
Return flow behind a departing area of high pressure will push a warm through central Nebraska tonight into Thursday.
Atmospheric moisture today will be around 150 percent of normal, that along with continued heat, and a cold front passage, is a good setup up for showers and thunderstorms. Radar projections show showers moving into north-central Idaho this morning followed by a few thunderstorms with the cold front this afternoon. Drier air moves in behind the cold front on Thursday, leading to storm-free, and slightly cooler conditions.
634 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021 (Today and tonight) Upper level high pressure will suppress most thunderstorm development today, but the region will still be be in northerly flow aloft, and the atmosphere moist and tropical.
Additonally, winds across the region continue to slowly moderate as ridging builds in across the Keys and coastal waters.
Temperatures today should be fairly close to what they were yesterday and a bit cooler Thursday behind the front.
638 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021 Cold front is slowly sinking southward out of the Texas Panhandle. /issued 303 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021/ An upper level high continues to remain parked over the desert southwest with some degree of flattening as a disturbance moves east out of British Columbia. This trough has sent a cold front into the Texas Panhandle where convection is slowly moving southward. Things will remain fairly quiet through late week and into the early weekend as upper high pressure to our west dominates the region.
Daytime highs will be impacted to a degree due to this cloud cover, with warmer high temperatures being limited to where clearing occurs. Synoptically, a deep trough will push southeastward out of Manitoba starting late this afternoon. This is in contrast to previous guidance that closed the low as it moved across the International Border. MOS guidance is running a bit cooler than the blended guidance at this time, likely due to persistent low to mid-level cloud cover. As such, went with the cooler end of guidance for this forecast issuance.
However, as we move into Wednesday night through Thursday morning, with limited cloud cover, will give the temperatures the opportunity to drop into the lower 40s.
Elevated convection is likely to initiate over the higher terrain of Central Montana before spilling eastward into the CWA, especially from 5PM and 11PM. As the wave tracks into a nice theta-e ridge with instability and sufficient 0-6km shear, look for another round of scattered thunderstorms, some of which could be severe. Early indications suggest a return to dry and warm conditions over the weekend ahead as the Northern High Plains sits on the northern extent of an upper level ridge anchored across the southwestern U.
Through the day today, a midlevel ridge will extend eastward over the forecast area from a building midlevel anticyclone over the central Great Basin. High temperatures today should range from the middle 80s to around 90 over the plains, in the lower/middle 80s over the mountain valleys, and in the 60s and 70s over the mountains.
Hot to very temperatures expected, as high pressure builds across Utah.
344 AM MDT Wed Jul 7 2021 The upper level ridge over the Great Basin will intensify today and shift slightly eastward. This will result in warmer and drier conditions for Colorado. Precipitable water falls below a half inch over the higher terrain with values between a half inch and three- quarters of an inch across the lower elevations. Some cumulus clouds should form over the higher terrain this afternoon, otherwise mostly clear skies are expected to prevail.
557 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021 High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern across the eastern US, however a change will arrive this afternoon. This will be associated with a weaker Low pressure system and passing frontal boundary. Unsettled weather will remain across the region through the end of week, with a stronger Low pressure system expected this weekend. With High pressure across the eastern US, and an approaching weak Low pressure system, this will bring chances for scattered showers and storms today. Heading into the evening and overnight, Low pressure core is expected to track through northern Illinois, with a frontal boundary tracking through the region overnight.
A blanket of cloud cover has been streaming into Middle TN over the last several hours, keeping temperatures slightly warmer this morning. Radar has shown a few showers attempting to make their way into our southern counties, but dying in the dry air aloft and subsidence of the weak high pressure over the region. This will change as we make our way into the daylight hours with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms expected to finally overcome the high pressure and move in from the south.
/issued 638 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021/ Cold front is slowly sinking southward out of the Texas Panhandle. /issued 303 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021/ An upper level high continues to remain parked over the desert southwest with some degree of flattening as a disturbance moves east out of British Columbia. This trough has sent a cold front into the Texas Panhandle where convection is slowly moving southward. Things will remain fairly quiet through late week and into the early weekend as upper high pressure to our west dominates the region.
(Today and tonight) Upper level high pressure will suppress most thunderstorm development today, but the region will still be be in northerly flow aloft, and the atmosphere moist and tropical.
There may be a return of storms if the cold front slows/stalls later in the TAF period, but confidence is not high enough to note in the TAFs as of yet. Cold front continues to drift south across the Panhandles today. Overall, high pressure continues to strengthen over the Four Corners. With the cold front moving through today there should be enough subsidence behind the front to keep conditions dry this evening and through the day on Thursday. Temperatures again today will likely be close to 10 degrees below normal today, but finally start climbing back to near normal temperatures on Thursday, with highs in the lower 90s.
528 AM MDT Wed Jul 7 2021 07z surface analysis had trough from central MT into northeast CO. Trough focus for TSRA early this morning with one cluster heading into southwest SD and another coming out of southeast MT. High pressure over southern SK funneling east/southeast upslope flow across the SD plains resulting in stratus/patchy fog development. Weather for the second half of the week will revolve around upper ridge. Today/tonight, upper ridge builds into the northern Rockies. Thursday, upper/thermal ridge peaks over the CWA bringing toasty temperatures.
342 AM MDT Wed Jul 7 2021 Temperatures trend warmer today, with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon and evening.
619 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021 High pressure continues over the area. Today Through Thursday Night Upper level high pressure continues over the southern and western U. with an upper trough over the Midwest. The upper trough will sink to the southeast tonight and Thursday. By Thursday night, the upper ridge will be over the south and west, and the trough will be over the east coast. A cold front in the Plains will move to near the northwest corner of Arkansas this evening and stall along the northern border. Near normal temperaturs are expected in the short term with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the lower to mid 70s.
Temperatures trend warmer today, with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon and evening.
The highest rainfall efficiency shifts towards or just off the coast later this morning into the afternoon with the best instability.
359 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021 Key Points: -Thunderstorms are expected to shift southeast of the area this evening as cold front moves through the area.
239 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021 Synoptically, the upper level high has remained parked in essentially the same position over the Desert Southwest as yesterday, with a modest upper trough currently pivoting through the Upper Midwest. Water vapor imagery suggests a decent fetch of midlevel moisture is in place over the CWA today as we remain between these features and a potent low off the lower TX coast. Despite our position under the eastern reaches of the upper ridge, the continued presence of low and midlevel moisture and a boundary dropping southward through the CWA has resulted in another day of scattered showers. Overnight into Thursday, the upper ridge will begin to flatten as an upper trough continues moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest. In response, 500mb heights will rise locally as the ridge expands eastward.
1132 AM MDT Wed Jul 7 2021 07z surface analysis had trough from central MT into northeast CO. Trough focus for TSRA early this morning with one cluster heading into southwest SD and another coming out of southeast MT. High pressure over southern SK funneling east/southeast upslope flow across the SD plains resulting in stratus/patchy fog development. Weather for the second half of the week will revolve around upper ridge. Today/tonight, upper ridge builds into the northern Rockies. Thursday, upper/thermal ridge peaks over the CWA bringing toasty temperatures.
Early afternoon analysis showed the cold front responsible for earlier showers and storms off to the south and east now from northeast Kansas into southern and eastern Iowa. A few light showers/drizzle lingered behind said front, with plenty of cloud cover across the area keeping temperatures in the lower to mid 70s as of 3 PM.
A trough will be over the Ohio and TN Valleys tonight and tomorrow bringing an unsettled wet pattern to the region. With increased rain and cloud cover temps will be cooler with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Upper trough is moving northeastward into Washington away from the area and thunderstorm threat is diminishing. Stronger winds will set up as a marine push develops with cooler air filtering through the Columbia Gorge, Cascade Gaps, and spreads out over the Lower Columbia Basin.
A H50 short wave and associated weak surface trof will drop southeast into the forecast area late tonight and during the day on Thursday.
322 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021 Cooler air and cu clouds have dominated the weather across the cwa this afternoon. Otherwise, the ops models and hi-res models all point to two short wave troughs coming around the upper ridge to our west, affecting our region through Thursday night. For tonight, indications are that short wave/waa lift over the cooler air and mid level instability will bring scattered showers and storms across the region later tonight into Thursday. The second stronger short wave trough will drop in from the northwest Thursday afternoon and night. This wave will be more significant as there will be higher surface dewpoints, warmer temperatures, deeper instability and stronger deep layer shear.
Elsa will quickly pass off to our southeast on Thursday, while the weak upper trough will start to swing through the region. Alabama will remain in a weakness in between two upper level ridges through the period, keeping us in a moist and unsettled weather regime.
1214 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021 (Today and tonight) Upper level high pressure will suppress most thunderstorm development today, but the region will still be be in northerly flow aloft, and the atmosphere moist and tropical.
The most recent cold front cleared the entire southwest Kansas region earlier this morning, which was followed by low stratus clouds across our region. These stratus clouds were holding quite tough through midday, keeping temperatures in the lower to mid 70s through 16Z. A continued modification of the lower tropospheric airmass through Thursday will support afternoon temperatures closer to the seasonal normal of lower 90s for highs.
(This evening through Thursday) Current scattered shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to continue through the rest of the afternoon, most numerous along a weak cold front across portions of northern and central OK. Ridging will simultaneously build eastward in the mid to upper levels which will help suppress convective development during the day, with only some very slight chances lingering across southern Oklahoma.
(This afternoon through Thursday night) This afternoon temperatures will remain in the low to upper 80s across the area. An upper level high located over the AZ/UT border will settle over the four corners tomorrow. Therefore, temperatures are expected to climb into the low 90s Thu/Fri but precip chances will decrease.
952 AM MDT Wed Jul 7 2021 With the low clouds in place for a good chunk of the CWA right now, felt it was prudent to lower high temperatures for much of the area especially for points east where the low clouds should hang on longer. Elevated convection is likely to initiate over the higher terrain of Central Montana before spilling eastward into the CWA, especially from 5PM and 11PM. As the wave tracks into a nice theta-e ridge with instability and sufficient 0-6km shear, look for another round of scattered thunderstorms, some of which could be severe. Early indications suggest a return to dry and warm conditions over the weekend ahead as the Northern High Plains sits on the northern extent of an upper level ridge anchored across the southwestern U.
High temperatures later today should warm only into the lower 80s (about 10 degrees below normal highs near 91). Tonight the area of lower pressure gets picked up by the upper-level trough and pushed off to the east, possibly giving us a bit of a break in the showers.
This results from high pressure building into the area and remaining relatively stationary, with abundant dry air in the tropical Atlantic continuously feeding into the area along the base of the ridge. This, and the drier than normal conditions through the lower troposphere should serve to suppress cu-line development along the islands.
McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 85 71 87 71 / 50 60 40 70 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 83 70 85 70 / 40 70 50 70 30 Oak Ridge, TN 68 83 70 86 69 / 40 60 50 60 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 81 67 84 67 / 40 70 50 60 30.
253 PM MDT Wed Jul 7 2021 Latest analysis shows an upper ridge to the west of the forecast area. MLCAPE has risen to 500-1500J/KG with the highest amounts along the convergence zone over the Black Hills. On Thursday, the upper ridge will be located over the forecast area, bringing warmer than average temperatures and large scale subsidence resulting in strong MLCIN to the area.
Temperature forecast for today of low to mid 80s seems to be working out quite well (although some cooler upper 70s in and near the more widespread rain areas). Through tonight, the upper weakness that has been persisting over the region remains relatively unchanged, but on Thursday we finally begin to see the upper high pressure ridge to our east starting to nose a little more into our region. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s for most locations, but with a few upper 70s along the immediate coast.
The upper level ridge over the Great Basin will intensify today and shift slightly eastward. This will result in warmer and drier conditions for Colorado. Precipitable water falls below a half inch over the higher terrain with values between a half inch and three- quarters of an inch across the lower elevations. Some cumulus clouds should form over the higher terrain this afternoon, otherwise mostly clear skies are expected to prevail.
An upper level trough currently located over the Upper Mississippi Valley will progress east, amplifying as it reaches the Ohio Valley Thursday afternoon. At the surface, areas of low pressure will traverse the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes regions. A cold front draped along a line from the Lower Great lakes back toward the Middle Mississippi Valley will inch its way toward the Commonwealth late Thursday. Ridging along the Mid Atlantic states will gradually weaken as the upper level wave and Elsa progresses northeast along the Atlantic Coast. CAMs show possible rainfall totals in the 1-2 inch range for the heaviest storms that develop but eastern Kentucky will not see widespread rainfall amounts this high as the storms should remain isolated. Showers and storms remain possible through tomorrow evening and into the overnight hours as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
With the low clouds in place for a good chunk of the CWA right now, felt it was prudent to lower high temperatures for much of the area especially for points east where the low clouds should hang on longer. Elevated convection is likely to initiate over the higher terrain of Central Montana before spilling eastward into the CWA, especially from 5PM and 11PM. As the wave tracks into a nice theta-e ridge with instability and sufficient 0-6km shear, look for another round of scattered thunderstorms, some of which could be severe. Early indications suggest a return to dry and warm conditions over the weekend ahead as the Northern High Plains sits on the northern extent of an upper level ridge anchored across the southwestern U.
344 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021 A chance of showers and storms will continue this evening through Thursday night along and ahead of a cold front moving southeast through the Ohio Valley. A cold front stretching from the lower Great Lakes back through the middle Mississippi Valley will move slowly southeast overnight. The front pushes through the region late Thursday, so showers decrease late as cooler, drier air arrives behind the front. High temperatures Thursday will reach the low to mid 80s, with lows dipping into the mid to upper 60s Thursday night.
Today Through Thursday Night Upper level high pressure continues over the southern and western U. with an upper trough over the Midwest. The upper trough will sink to the southeast tonight and Thursday. By Thursday night, the upper ridge will be over the south and west, and the trough will be over the east coast. A cold front in the Plains will move to near the northwest corner of Arkansas this evening and stall along the northern border. Near normal temperatures are expected in the short term with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the lower to mid 70s.
High pressure builds in and remains in place for the next several days with an axis generally north of the area.
On its heels, a cold front moves through the region tonight into Thursday.
257 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021 Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing, mainly along and southeast of the KS Turnpike corridor, in vicinity of a cold front oozing slowly south.
258 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Strong to severe storms precede cold front this evening - Fair Weather interlude followed by return of showers - Strong to severe storms precede cold front this evening We expect the conditions for strong to severe storms to continue through this evening across the southeast forecast area in the warm sector ahead of advancing cold front. The severe threat should diminish after sunset as instability decreases, but some strong storms and a heavy rain threat could persist overnight and into Thursday morning along the cold front. The front should clear the eastern zones by afternoon with a cooler and much drier air mass moving in.
255 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021 On a big picture, a ridging west and troughing east pattern was setting up across the greater CONUS. The troughing was in part helping to draw deep moisture from the tropics to the southern lower-48.
Currently, northwest flow aloft with a mid level ridge across the Rockies and a S/WV trough over the Great Lakes region.
High pressure builds over the Northland for light winds and clear skies which will provide efficient radiational cooling tonight giving a chilly night; so chilly that some rural locations in St. Gusty northeast winds will keep winds and waves high this afternoon before decreasing as high pressure builds overhead.
Lows tonight drop into the lower 70s F with some upper 60s F to near 70 F minimums likely over eastern MS along and north of the I-20 corridor. A broad trough axis, responsible in part for sending Elsa well east of us, will help keep rain chances a bit higher than seasonal with most places seeing showers and storms at some point this evening through Thursday. With the trough being in a slightly less favorable/more easterly position Thursday, rain chances may be slightly lower than we saw Wednesday with upper heights slightly rising. This should result in a warmer day, with much of the area reaching near or just above 90 F.
The nearly stationary upper level low over the Southeast TX coast continues to provide lift for the ongoing convection over our Central TX counties.
Radar is scanning isolated showers and thunderstorms beginning to form over the higher terrain of Greenlee County as well as a few spots southeast of Tucson. Over the duration of the forecast, the general location of the high will drift subtly along the northern Arizona border allowing for consistent northeasterly to easterly flow aloft.
/issued 303 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021/ An upper level high continues to remain parked over the desert southwest with some degree of flattening as a disturbance moves east out of British Columbia. This trough has sent a cold front into the Texas Panhandle where convection is slowly moving southward. Things will remain fairly quiet through late week and into the early weekend as upper high pressure to our west dominates the region.
After cooler weather Thursday temperatures will warm up for the upcoming weekend.
Lows tonight will be in the lower 70s to upper 60s. On Thursday, northwesterly flow aloft will take over and an upper trough will transition into the area from the north.
420 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a broad mid/upper level trough into the western Great Lakes. Tonight, expect the rest of the showers to only gradually diminish as the mid level trough amplifies but the moisture and stronger forcing slides to the east. Clearing over the northwest half and favorable radiational cooling overnight will allow temps to drop off into the lower 40s over the inland west half while clouds maintain temps in the lower south and east. 850 mb temps in the 8C to 10C range will support highs from the mid 60s north to the lower 70s south. A prolonged period of above normal temperatures appears likely for mid-July with cooler air masses staying well to our north/northwest.