Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The scattered area of precipitation should gradually propagate across southwest into central Kansas through the early morning hours as the low level jet veers with time.
On the synoptic scale, broad but fairly weak ridging will continue across the southeast and south central CONUS, with 500 mb height anomalies generally less than +3dm over our area. A deamplifying trough will emerge onto the northern and central plains by Thursday and force a cold front southward toward our area.
Today Through Thursday Night A ridge of high pressure will hold over the southeast United States through the near term. Meanwhile, a weak storm system in southern Alabama will slowly wobble to the north and west around the periphery of the high. A cold front will also slowly approach from the Plains.
attendant 850mb trough sets up near Mississippi River, extending northward into southern Illinois. Deepest moisture pools just east of this trough by Thursday afternoon, with highest POPs in the Mid-State tomorrow over our extreme southwest.
However by mid afternoon, the surface pressure map and wind fields indicate the surface warm front has lifted back north and closer to the 925 to 850 mb warm front. Upper heights expected to build over the area tonight as well ahead of a broad upper trough working into the northern plains overnight. Convection noted over west central Minnesota early this afternoon appear to more orientated along the warm front.
Upper ridge will remain centered off the east coast, with weak energy aloft moving across the area, resulting in mainly diurnally enhanced convection given weak mid level support and lack of any surface features (weak return flow).
Otherwise, dry and warm weather to persist with lows a bit above normal in the low to mid 70s. Otherwise, with warm 850 temps will see highs in the low to mid 90s.
The fog may thicken somewhat towards dawn as the lows reach the upper 60s. Warm frontal convection is well north of Iowa, and should remain in Minnesota this morning. Today and tonight appear most likely dry, though one cannot completely rule out a stray shower as the low level jet veers and weakens this morning. These temperatures combined with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s, will bring heat index readings to the 95 to 100 range through the afternoon and early evening hours. Tonight, with light winds become calm, and dewpoint holding in the lower 70s through the evening, a sticky and muggy evening should be felt through the entire area. Lows should fall only to the lower 70s except northeast where upper 60s should occur in the valley sites.
It looks mainly quiet tonight as high pressure continues to exit to the east.
High temperatures will be seasonable, running generally from the lower to mid 90s. At the start of the long range period, the weak area of low pressure responsible for the heavy rain across the eastern Gulf of Mexico will continue to shift westward along the northern gulf coast. This will occur as weak upper ridging builds in across the western Atlantic into the Mid-Atlantic states.
Short wave moving through the broad trof over the Wrn states may trigger isolated convection near the Lassen Park area today. Ft Ord profiler shows marine layer holding at around 2400 ft today with modest onshore pressure gradients that have resulted in cooler temp trends in the Delta influenced areas. A warming trend is expected Thursday and into the weekend as high pressure strengthens and large scale subsidence suppresses the marine layer. With 850 mbs temps in the low to mid 20s degrees C. we expect maxes to reach into the highs 90s/low 100s in the valley and 80s/90s in the mountains.
Seasonable weather conditions will continue today as a broad trough remains over the West Coast. A gradual warming trend is then expected for late week and into the weekend as high pressure builds over the region. The base of a baggy trough has sluggishly moved across the state today and is now showing signs that it is weakening and lifting towards the northeast. The trough has dominated the local/regional weather conditions over the last few days and led to a cooling/moistening trend that peaked today. Temperatures are running generally a few to several degrees cooler than this time yesterday and these temperatures are broadly below average for this time of the year. As the aforementioned trough exits the region, a shift in the weather pattern will occur as high pressure begins to build into the region.
/Today/ WAA to continue across the area today ahead of a developing low pressure system along the western high plains. This area of low pressure associated with upper level troughing shifting slightly east across the northern Rockies.
222 PM MDT WED AUG 10 2016 Water vapor imagery shows an upper low straddling the Montana/Canadian border with southwest flow continuing across the nrn Plains. shows low pressure centered across the Badlands along a stationary frontal boundary. Cooler air will filter into the rest of the CWA tonight into Thu morning. The upper low will slide eastward across srn Canada just north of ND Thu morning. As the base of the trough approaches the CWA. Cooler temps are expected with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s.
203 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2016 Upper ridge to the east through the week.
128 PM PDT WED AUG 10 2016 Fair and mild weather will continue through Thursday as a trough of low pressure moves through the West.
While the upper ridge persists with its center over East Texas and some influence across the forecast area, it appears a relatively weakly- capped moist air mass will serve up scattered showers and thunderstorms again today with areas on the caprock favored. Have trended just slightly lower than previous forecast in line with objective guidance and model blend, although uncertainties about extent and magnitude of mid and upper cloud cover are leading to uncertainties about the high temperature forecast.
255 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016 A tropical low pressure system over southern Alabama today will lift slowly west northwest through the end of the week.
A little less precip coverage may occur tomorrow as a high pressure ridge builds overhead. NListemaa As with the previous model runs, the latest solutions continue to trend drier in the extended periods as broad Gulf low pressure area shifts westward into the weekend.
Looking at the sfc, an area of low pressure is out over central SD, with a warm front extending out to the east into northeast SD and west central MN. South of the warm front temps are in the upper 80s and lower 90s with dew points in the mid 70s. The high resolution models, especially the HRRR, seem consistent in depicting the current storms sinking SSE fairly quickly late this afternoon into early evening. These other storms would be more associated with the cold front or the wave currently over eastern MT.
This comes as daytime heating interacts with a low pressure system in the Gulf and a rather soupy airmass present over the region. As the low pressure system tracks west across the northern Gulf, this will help bring fairly significant rainfall to at least portions of the region through the weekend and the threat for flash flooding.
250 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 A blocking ridge aloft will keep central Pennsylvania dry and unseasonably warm, with slowly increasing humidity as the week progresses. A cold front should pass through this weekend leading to a day or two of seasonable temperatures before another warm-up occurs. We may see a little cirrus from both the east (Hermine) and the north (spilling over/around the upper level ridge).
626 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 A ridge of high pressure will remain over the region into tonight.
547 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 A blocking ridge aloft will keep central Pennsylvania dry and unseasonably warm, with slowly increasing humidity as the week progresses. A cold front should pass through this weekend leading to a day or two of seasonable temperatures before another warm-up occurs. We may see a little cirrus from both the east (Hermine) and the north (spilling over/around the upper level ridge).
321 AM PDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Temperatures will warm to near normal by Wednesday as a trough of low pressure exits the region and onshore flow weakens. The long wave trof axis has passed to the east and the rising hgts behind it along with the offshore trends will allow for a nice bump up in temps today esp in the vlys. still the higher hgts and the offshore trends should keep it confined to the coasts.
Short wave trough to our northwest will bring showers to eastern Oregon this afternoon, then weaken as it reaches Idaho late today, i. Consensus favors the warmer and drier models, with pcpn on the Idaho side staying north of the Snake Basin. Wednesday will also be 2-5 degs warmer than today in northern zones but similar to today in the south.
with a trof over the Wrn USA and a subtropical high over the lwr MS Valley. Models remain consistent with the past couple days that the Wrn trof will begin deamplifying. but the base of the Wrn trof is fcst to lift across CO/WY into SD tonight. But shear is fcst to decrease thru the evening to below 30 kts as the low-lvl jet strengthens. The persistent synoptic trough in the western United States finally heads east across the Rocky Mountains and toward the Plains. As the synoptic trough approaches, we we still be under southwest flow as multiple impulses potentially impact our weather through the rest of the work week.
A large-scale analysis reveals a narrow, weakening cyclonic shear zone in the lower troposphere, arcing southwestward from Post- tropical storm Hermine, across the western North Atlantic to the Florida Keys.
An upper trough is currently pushing east of the region while an upper ridge currently centered near 135W nudges eastward.
212 AM EDT Tue Sep 6 2016 High pressure will continue to control our weather pattern through the middle of the week.
Otherwise, broad trough in place over the region today.
417 AM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Broad anvil precipitation moving across central portions of the CWA up to KABR, while more vigorous convection is occurring along the warm front that is hugging the southern extreme of the CWA, but if it continues on its current path, is expected to move into the KATY area. Fairly strong signal evident in Q vectors for broad lift, with a ribbon of isentropic ascent as high pressure retreats to the east. Thermal advection in the low levels is minimal so will stick with highs in the 70s.
347 AM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Back door cold front on its way.
Tight moisture gradient will exist between drier airmass building into northern portions of central Florida and deep moisture over South Florida along a lingering frontal trough. High pressure will elongate with its ridge axis oriented roughly along 30N latitude into the weekend. High pressure ridge just north of the waters will produce a light to gentle easterly flow.
Drier mid and upper level air has surged southward into the forecast area between high pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley and Post-Tropical Storm Hermine along the Mid-Atlantic coast. High temperatures will remain near normal in the upper 80s to lower 90s, while overnight lows are a few degrees below normal in the upper 60s thanks to the drier air across the Nature Coast, to near normal in the lower to mid 70s elsewhere.
Subjective 00Z upper-air analysis indicates southwesterly upper-level flow across the central US, with trough across the Great Basin and high over the lower Mississippi River valley. Storms should grow upscale and fester through tonight and into Wednesday morning under favorable synoptic environment for ascent (approaching upper-level trough and near the right-entrance of an upper-level jet streak). Trough doesn't kick out past the area until Wednesday night, and front is slow to pass through the area on Wednesday and may be affected by convection.
As the edge of the low cloud erodes, fog has been forming. Expect fog to erode quickly following sunrise today with high pressure sliding through the northern plains.
SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday):H5 ridge continues to dominate the lower mississippi valley, with south Texas on the southwestern edge. Models continue to show a gradual decrease in moisture through the next 24 hours, while the H5 ridge drifts in our direction, further capping off the environment. The ridge continues to build in overnight into Wednesday, with any shower chances confined to the marine areas only tonight.
Temperatures will warm to above normal by the end of the week as high pressure maintains dry conditions across the region. Temperatures will continue to climb today and Wednesday broad troughing pattern breaks down with steadily rising 500 mb heights anticipated over across the Great Basin region for the next several days. Short term temperature trend is a bit slower than 24 hour prior with temperatures across the state running 2 to 3 degrees warmer than this time yesterday.
1050 PM PDT Mon Sep 5 2016 A fast moving frontal system will bring a good chance for light rain to the lowlands starting late tonight and continuing into Tuesday.
Confidence remains high in above normal temps as they reach the low 90s, with normal highs for this time of year in the upper 80s. Strong cold front is still expected to sweep through early Fri evening with storms expected along this feature as it pushes southeast. A much drier and cooler airmass will be in place Sat and Sun. Later this evening and during the overnight hours lee troughing will slowly begin to push southeast across northern Kansas; therefore, gusty winds should relax a bit at terminals across central Kansas as the pressure gradient weakens.
333 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 A blocking ridge aloft will keep central Pennsylvania dry and unseasonably warm, with slowly increasing humidity as the week progresses. A cold front should pass through this weekend leading to a day or two of seasonable temperatures before another warm-up occurs. We may see a little cirrus from both the east (Hermine) and the north (spilling over/around the upper level ridge).
with a high pressure ridge controlling the weather over much of the South. Given the dry soils and the magnitude of the ridge. but some slightly higher dewpoints will help to keep lows a degree or two warmer in the mid to upper 60s. Ridge will continue to stick around keeping temperatures warm. But in the lower levels the winds will shift to out of the south/southwest bringing up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.
230 AM PDT Tue Sep 6 2016 A fast moving frontal system will bring a chance for light rain to the lowlands today.
but expect coverage to remain limited with the mid level ridge centered across the northern gulf coast states.
Heat index values for today to range from 100 to 104 degrees today across some locations due to warmer temperatures and increased low-level moisture within southerly flow. Upper-level ridge to become better established across the region through late in the work week allowing for diminished rain chances and temperatures holding in the mid 90s.
VFR and MVFR conditions are expected with IFR conditions in the morning with the low clouds. Tonight Through Wednesday High pressure aloft remains centered over the Mississippi river from southern Illinois south to the Gulf Coast this afternoon, placing Arkansas on the immediate western periphery of this feature.
Southwesterly flow aloft continues with the main upper trough still over the western CONUS.
640 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Fair weather expected to continue through this week, as dry high pressure dominates.
The upper level trough over the northern Rockies through the western Great Basin will move east across the region through early Wednesday.
Temperatures and dew points will be on the increase through the period as mid-level heights continue to rise as Hermine exits east and a trough approaches from the western Great Lakes. Models show a weak impulse moving into the mean ridge axis, and have gone with slight chance pops for afternoon thunderstorms with weak capping shown on model forecast soundings.
123 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Upper level ridge continues overhead and keeps the area mostly dry for the next few days.
328 AM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Simply, ridging influences surface and aloft will continue to be the dominant weather player across the mid state thru Thu night. Eventually, some weakening of upper level ridging dynamics across the west and the north is expected Thu afternoon into Thu night potentially resulting in the development of isolated shwrs and tstms across northern western and Highland Rim locations of the mid state Thu afternoon into Thu night. Afternoon highs will generally be in the lower 90s, upper 80s Cumberland Plateau Region.
327 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Upper level ridge continues its domination.
T/Td spreads will narrow behind this second surge but main thicker fog threat should be confined to the higher terrain in/near the foothills where we could also see some light drizzle given sufficient upslope component and shallow forcing. Temperatures will be cooler today in all but the high mountain valleys as the upslope component remains locked against the Front Range. In the high country along and west of the Front Range, dry and breezy conditions will persist again with dry southwest flow aloft holding strong.
405 AM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Quiet weather is in store for the short term as weak high pressure builds for Tuesday. A brief slot of drier air aloft will accompany the weak high pressure with skies clearing up from west to east late this morning into Tuesday night. The trough over the western CONUS will finally move over North Dakota Wednesday. A surface cold front will accompany the trough as it moves west to east across the state. Unsettled weather through the remainder of the week into the upcoming weekend as a parade of disturbances continue to move through the area, bringing near daily chances for precipitation along with cooler than average temperatures to most locations.
128 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Southerly winds on the backside of high pressure will continue to support mainly dry and increasingly humid conditions through midweek.
249 AM PDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Temperatures will warm to near normal by Wednesday as a trough of low pressure exits the region and onshore flow weakens. The long wave trof axis has passed to the east and the rising hgts behind it along with the offshore trends will allow for a nice bump up in temps today esp in the vlys. still the higher hgts and the offshore trends should keep it confined to the coasts.
145 AM PDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Temperatures trend warmer today back to seasonal average. Cooler temperatures are possible by the end of the upcoming weekend. Temperatures will trend warmer this week as 700 mb temperatures increase from around 4C to near 10C in response to a building upper level ridge.
642 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 High pressure will keep our weather dry and warm through Wednesday.
A warming trend will continue today and peak on Wednesday as high pressure builds over the region. Onshore flow increases late in the week as the high pressure weakens and allows for temperatures to fall back to near seasonal averages.
328 AM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016 (Today and Tonight) An upper level ridge over the South Central United States will suppress most showers and thunderstorms development. Isolated showers and thunderstorms, however, will be possible over western and southern sections of West Central Texas, where the upper ridging is weakest. Otherwise the forecast today will be close to yesterday with highs/lows in the lower 90s/lower 70s. Lee trough will continue to bring gusty southeast to south winds of 10 to 20 mph.
The upper level trof that caused the precipitation is now exiting the region.
Look for warmer weather tomorrow and Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure returns to our region.
Broad upper ridge of high pressure will continue to build over the MS/TN rivers valleys stretching south across the central gulf states through tonight. where the better rain chances are expected today due to only marginal instability in the lower to mid levels. Lows tonight will feel more like early fall ranging from the mid to upper 60s inland and the lower to middle 70s along the immediate coast.
415 AM MDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Corrected Watches/Warnings/Advisories section to accurately reflect Red Flag Warning in effect this afternoon Dry and breezy southwest flow will continue across the forecast area today as a trough of low pressure remains over the eastern Great Basin. The trough which has persisted to the west over the past several days will finally sweep eastward over the area Wednesday resulting in a westerly flow. Flow aloft weakens following trough passage so expect less wind Wednesday afternoon. Expect afternoon temperatures to peak near those recorded on Labor Day, then becoming a bit cooler Wednesday in the wake of the upper level trough described previously.
645 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Southerly winds on the backside of high pressure will continue to support humid conditions through midweek. along with cooler temperatures. Matured warm sector to persist for one more day beneath stoic lower MS/OH Valleys subtropical ridge anchor protruding northeast into the Lower Great Lakes. Convection to maintain into northwest third of CWA late Wed night/early Thu morning as downstream heights continue lowering as broad/shallow mid level troffing emerges across northern conus.
230 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Upper level ridge continues its domination.
509 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 Southerly winds on the backside of high pressure will continue to support humid conditions through midweek. along with cooler temperatures. Matured warm sector to persist for one more day beneath stoic lower MS/OH Valleys subtropical ridge anchor protruding northeast into the Lower Great Lakes. Convection to maintain into northwest third of CWA late Wed night/early Thu morning as downstream heights continue lowering as broad/shallow mid level troffing emerges across northern conus.
120 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 A blocking ridge aloft will keep central Pennsylvania dry and unseasonably warm, with slowly increasing humidity as the week progresses. temps have dropped into the upper 50s north to the lower 70s southeast. Temps may top out a few degrees warmer than Labor Day, with dewpoints beginning to creep up as well as moisture begins to work in from the west. Guidance suggests that upper ridging extending northward from the Gulf of Mexico will keep the weather dry and warm to hot though at least midweek.
Light winds and clear skies behind a exiting cold front will bring freezing temperatures for mountain areas and 33 to 37 degrees for most other areas this morning. A weak cold front will move through late today into Wednesday morning bringing breezy winds with isolated showers over the Northern Central mountains and the Upper Snake highlands.
652 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 A blocking ridge aloft will keep central Pennsylvania dry and unseasonably warm, with slowly increasing humidity as the week progresses. A cold front should pass through this weekend leading to a day or two of seasonable temperatures before another warm-up occurs. We may see a little cirrus from both the east (Hermine) and the north (spilling over/around the upper level ridge).
Early morning temperatures were mainly in the low to mid 70s.
Moisture advection is also in progress at the lower low-levels with the KLBB VAD showing a 45 kt LLJ and surface dewpoints in the low 70s lurking just to the southeast of the forecast area. However, rain chances will continue across the entire forecast area, with the higher chances to be found across western portions of the Caprock.
428 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016 High pressure will continue across the CWFA through the entire short term period. The trough/upper low associated with Hermine will continue to push off the east coast. Meanwhile, a high pressure center currently located across the central Gulf States will build eastward. At the surface, high pressure will continue to build down from the north on the back side of Hermine.