Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Warm layer is most pronounced across northwest Iowa, and may lead to a little sleet or freezing rain prior to more intense precipitation to saturate the column. Forecast soundings hint that ice within the dendritic zone becomes difficult to come by on the western edge of the precipitation shield, and may see precipitation try to switch back to freezing rain/drizzle. Of greater concern will be the increasing northerly wind drawing cooler air into the region tonight into Saturday. Fog is expected to lift into a stratus deck this evening as cold front moves through the region.
Widespread show will continue through the early morning hours this morning, particularly in the Seeley/Swan Region, where the higher snow amounts for all valleys have been received.
Scattered showers north of the warm front will move out of the area this morning, but more convection out in the gulf associated with the low will be moving into our coastal waters as the day progresses. Cold front will sweep across the area late tonight and Saturday morning bringing an end to the precipitation from northwest to southeast and ushering in cooler drier air.
521 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2019 Low pressure and associated surface fronts will continue tracking across the area today, driving our weather. Fog has the potential to shift/expand east through the remainder of the morning, ending over the Coteau this early afternoon before a cold frontal passage. Light snow showers have traversed the northern CWA this morning as well, and while they should exit the area by mid- morning, sounding profiles suggest a deep enough moist layer to support the possibility of freezing drizzle east of the James Valley, again, until this afternoon. Saturday will feature high pressure and much colder air, with highs in the single digits. Mid level ridging will slowly/gradually expand east/northeast into the region, thus pushing the main storm track further north through time, and also pushing cold air intrusions further east.
406 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2019 Mild temperatures will continue today until a weak cold front moves across the area this evening and brings decreasing temperatures through the weekend. The cold front will also bring light precipitation to the region for tonight through early Saturday morning. The precipitation will be mainly rain or snow, but some patchy freezing drizzle will be possible as the precipitation ends later tonight.
As the low departs into Minnesota later today, very light snow may briefly expand into southwest North Dakota with the baroclinic zone on the leading edge of cold high pressure. Temperatures are expected to reach their highs this morning across the area, and fall through the afternoon as the high builds in. Across the southwest, some stratus may remain on the western edge of the arctic air, and thus lows will be relatively warmer near zero.
457 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2019 Ridge of high pressure drifting across the region early this morning. Otherwise, temperatures across the area ranged from single digits/lower teens in the clearing to the lower 20s under cloud cover. Model soundings also show a loss of cloud ice in stratus behind the wave this evening/overnight, so could have a little freezing drizzle to contend with -at least through the evening/very early morning hours with lingering albeit weak lift. Highs today will be in the low 20s to low 30s with lows tonight falling into the teens/lower 20s. Some pockets of clearing skies expected Saturday night with high pressure building in.
255 AM MST Fri Dec 13 2019 Above average temperatures today and Friday turn colder on Saturday following the passage of a cold front. Temperatures will be 10-15 degrees cooler on Saturday than on Friday along with a chance of light snow spreading across the area from Saturday into Saturday night. A short wave trough spreading high clouds across the forecast area today will continue to move east tonight with northwest flow in it's wake bringing another weaker short wave trough through the region Friday night. Short wave ridging in place early Saturday quickly transitions to a westerly then southwesterly flow aloft as the next larger scale trough moves into the western U.
As the disturbance moves further to the southeast, warmer temperatures will delay the onset of snow somewhat, limiting snow accumulations to under an inch. Cooled hourly temperatures slightly across northern Nebraska as current thinking is cooler air will move in slightly sooner, a couple hours or so. Precipitation type will be all snow as temperatures on Saturday will be much cooler with highs in the teens to low 20s across north central Nebraska and in the 20s and 30s across western and southwest Nebraska.
Near the surface, a trough axis is edging slowly east across central Kansas. A quiet weather pattern is expected though tonight as an upper level ridge builds across the Western United States with a trough of low pressure at the surface moves east of the area.
Temperatures are few degrees cooler than forecast at this hour, but still expect to see highs warm into the 60s this afternoon as the fog bank erodes.
Sent out a fresh HWO to take out the mention of morning freezing rain and also sent out an updated ZFP to remove morning wording. Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 44 54 39 / 70 70 40 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 44 51 37 / 80 80 60 30 Oak Ridge, TN 48 43 49 37 / 80 80 50 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 42 48 35 / 80 90 80 50.
Saturday, an approaching short wave trough in the subtropical westerlies will tighten up the midlevel height gradient.
1103 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2019 Ridge of high pressure drifting across the region early this morning. Otherwise, temperatures across the area ranged from single digits/lower teens in the clearing to the lower 20s under cloud cover. Model soundings also show a loss of cloud ice in stratus behind the wave this evening/overnight, so could have a little freezing drizzle to contend with -at least through the evening/very early morning hours with lingering albeit weak lift. Highs today will be in the low 20s to low 30s with lows tonight falling into the teens/lower 20s. Some pockets of clearing skies expected Saturday night with high pressure building in.
During the early morning hours, 700mb winds will shift to the west as the upper trough moves east.
A weak cold front will bring light precipitation to the region for late tonight into early Saturday morning.
Low pressure was situated over the southern James River Valley early this afternoon, with strong northwest winds over central North Dakota. With the center of the high to our north, we will not experience the coldest temperatures tonight, but winds will not drop off completely, except possibly the far north late.
1036 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2019 Mild temperatures will continue today until a weak cold front moves across the area this evening and brings decreasing temperatures through the weekend. The cold front will also bring light precipitation to the region for tonight through early Saturday morning. The precipitation will be mainly rain or snow, but some patchy freezing drizzle will be possible as the precipitation ends later tonight.
Relatively dry conditions are likely to continue tonight into Saturday as a northwest flow aloft prevails across the Western High Plains while a much drier air mass persists in the lower levels. Expect lows down into the 20s(F) to possibly the lower 30s(F) tonight.
300 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2019 With a mid level, negatively-tilted trough moving in our direction this afternoon, scattered precipitation and low clouds have become the main story.
Warm layer is most pronounced across northwest Iowa, and may lead to a little sleet or freezing rain prior to more intense precipitation to saturate the column. Forecast soundings hint that ice within the dendritic zone becomes difficult to come by on the western edge of the precipitation shield, and may see precipitation try to switch back to freezing rain/drizzle. Of greater concern will be the increasing northerly wind drawing cooler air into the region tonight into Saturday. Gusty northwest winds up to 25 knots are expected tonight as a cold front moves through.
At the surface, low pressure is developing over the Gulf of Mexico, with a warm front over the peninsula lifting northward. As we head into Saturday, the cold front will move through the region, bringing an end to rain as we head into the afternoon.
1043 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2019 Latest visible satellite imagery shows the back edge of the high clouds is now into Osage/Pawnee counties, and this clearing trend is expected to continue this afternoon. Weak cold front is still on schedule to arrive late tonight with a wind shift to north on Saturday and cooler temperatures, especially north of Interstate 40.
The combination of a weak trough drifting through and ample low level moisture will bring the potential for some freezing drizzle tonight into Saturday morning. so freezing precip.
223 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019 Widespread rain is expected tonight and Saturday with crossing low pressure. No significant accumulation is expected, though colder areas across the higher terrain could see a couple of inches.
These showers are developing in response to an upper level trough axis currently moving through the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Short wave trof approaching the MS River Valley will interact with the wrn flank of a high pres ridge over the W Atlc to maintain the southerly flow acrs central FL today.
202 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2019 Main forecast concerns for this evening are on the potential for freezing drizzle. A brief shot of snow can be expected with the wave through mid evening, then patchy freezing drizzle is expected on the back side of the wave. Ice is lost aloft as the wave departs so if precipitation occurs it will be in the form of patchy freezing drizzle. Also some patchy fog is expected, but visibilities should stay above 3 miles, but may be lower on ridge top locations. Another trough moves across southern Ontario on Saturday with snow showers possibly lingering across northern Wisconsin.
Tomorrow will be relatively quiet with slightly breezy conditions possible as winds shift to the southwest to west in response to a surface lee trough.
Cold front will arrive overnight, with a wind shift to the west and northwest, but wind speeds will be light. /Issued 1043 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2019/ Latest visible satellite imagery shows the back edge of the high clouds is now into Osage/Pawnee counties, and this clearing trend is expected to continue this afternoon. Weak cold front is still on schedule to arrive late tonight with a wind shift to north on Saturday and cooler temperatures, especially north of Interstate 40.
Conditions still look to improve Saturday afternoon, though pushes of moisture will keep light snowfall possible for the higher terrain.
1240 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2019 Mild temperatures will continue today until a weak cold front moves across the area this evening and brings decreasing temperatures through the weekend. The cold front will also bring light precipitation to the region for tonight through early Saturday morning. The precipitation will be mainly rain or snow, but some patchy freezing drizzle will be possible as the precipitation ends later tonight.
647 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019 Widespread rain is expected tonight and Saturday with crossing low pressure. No significant accumulation is expected, though colder areas across the higher terrain could see a couple of inches.
Only had to make minor adjustments to pop and the temperature/dewpoint fields to tweak the back edge of the highest pops for light rain to match current radar and satellite depiction of the axis of deepest moisture/lift.
550 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2019 Main forecast concerns for this evening are on the potential for freezing drizzle. A brief shot of snow can be expected with the wave through mid evening, then patchy freezing drizzle is expected on the back side of the wave. Ice is lost aloft as the wave departs so if precipitation occurs it will be in the form of patchy freezing drizzle. Also some patchy fog is expected, but visibilities should stay above 3 miles, but may be lower on ridge top locations. Another trough moves across southern Ontario on Saturday with snow showers possibly lingering across northern Wisconsin.
Scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm in the lowlands will continue into this evening before tapering off.
Light northerly to northeasterly winds tonight in the wake of a back door cold front in-conjunction with mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to drop to values ranging from the mid 20s to near freezing. In the wake of the cold front for the the day tomorrow, high temperatures are expected to be cooler than today. However, going into Saturday afternoon, latest hi-res guidance shows winds will shift to south and southwesterly, especially for the western Panhandles as the front tries to retreat north as warm front.
By mid afternoon, road temperatures have risen above freezing south of Highway 20 and in the area that was receiving freezing rain. A cold front over South Dakota will pass through the state this evening and will have a trailing stronger push of cold advection that will arrive after midnight. Did maintain a freezing drizzle mention over the far east for a short period overnight where better moisture depths are achieved. Saturday will be cold as Canadian High pressure begins to move into the state.
Dry conditions and warmer temperatures will prevail again on Saturday.
217 PM MST Fri Dec 13 2019 Winds diminishing slowly over the area this afternoon and high winds no longer expected so have cancelled the High Wind Warning. Over the plains an inch or two should be the rule, mainly falling on Saturday, with a bit more possible around the Pine Ridge.
Poor flying conditions will continue through the TAF period as a negatively tilted trough moves across the Southeast US tonight.
Therefore, cha could become vfr around 15z followed by tys and tri around 19-20z as the low level westerly wind descends off the Cumberland Plateau terrain.
GOES-16 Satellite trends indicate a longwave trough extending south across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains.
246 PM MST Fri Dec 13 2019 Cold front has pushed to our south this afternoon but the upper air support for it is weak.
Out ahead of the front, temperatures remain generally in the mid 20s to lower 30s (some cooler upper teens lingering into west central Minnesota). The low level CAA looks to end by mid-day on Saturday.
628 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2019 Cold high pressure centered in Saskatchewan is forecast to move south bringing much colder temperatures with it. Low pressure was situated over the southern James River Valley early this afternoon, with strong northwest winds over central North Dakota. With the center of the high to our north, we will not experience the coldest temperatures tonight, but winds will not drop off completely, except possibly the far north late.
Air mass keep to far N so more IFR/MVFR early on Sun improving faster w/ warmer S winds. /Tonight through Saturday Night/ The axis of a broad upper trough is moving across the Mississippi River Valley. The increased cloud cover should keep temperatures above freezing areawide tonight. While the low clouds will gradually lift and scatter during the day Saturday, high level cirrus clouds will increase across the region ahead of the next large upper trough moving onto the West Coast.
348 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2019 A short wave digging across the Central Plains is still expected to push a weak cold front into northwest Oklahoma beginning late this evening and reaching the Red River by sunrise Saturday. Saturdays cloud cover along with perhaps subtle cooler air advecting in will keep afternoon temperatures a little bit cooler than today, yet still seasonably normal (lower 50s) for mid December days. Meanwhile, another trough will be moving into the U.
Cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma late tonight, pushing south into the ARKLATX region by Saturday afternoon.
345 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2019 Current sfc analysis shows an area of low pressure off the mouth of the MS River with a trailing frontal boundary. meanwhile another weak low is noted over the ArkLaTex with a trailing trof over ern TX. Water vapor imagery shows troffing crossing the cntl CONUS with weak disturbances noted upstream moving out of the Rockies and across TX. In the short-term, a few showers remain possible through this evening as the next disturbance aloft now upstream over TX and its associated sfc trof interact with lingering moisture while passing the region.
We'll stay in this pattern through the weekend as a stream of Pacific moisture rides up and over an offshore ridge. Tonight, snow showers will linger over the higher terrain, especially the Mission and Swan Ranges. The trough will provide enough lift to interact with moisture already in place and bring more widespread precipitation.
With a mid level, negatively-tilted trough moving in our direction this afternoon, scattered precipitation and low clouds have become the main story.
435 PM MST Fri Dec 13 2019 Winds diminishing slowly over the area this afternoon and high winds no longer expected so have cancelled the High Wind Warning. Over the plains an inch or two should be the rule, mainly falling on Saturday, with a bit more possible around the Pine Ridge.
818 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019 Widespread rain is expected tonight and Saturday with crossing low pressure. No significant accumulation is expected, though colder areas across the higher terrain could see a couple of inches.
407 PM MST Fri Dec 13 2019 High pressure will result in near to slightly above normal temperatures for the beginning of the weekend.
Forecast soundings show some shallow saturation, so could get a little bit of mist/freezing drizzle, but overall not expecting much in the way of impacts from any precipitation this evening and overnight.
/issued 348 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2019/ A short wave digging across the Central Plains is still expected to push a weak cold front into northwest Oklahoma beginning late this evening and reaching the Red River by sunrise Saturday. Saturdays cloud cover along with perhaps subtle cooler air advecting in will keep afternoon temperatures a little bit cooler than today, yet still seasonably normal (lower 50s) for mid December days. Meanwhile, another trough will be moving into the U.
MVFR conditions are forecast to follow the cold front across northwest Arkansas Saturday morning. Cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma late tonight, pushing south into the ARKLATX region by Saturday afternoon.
/Tonight through Saturday Night/ The axis of a broad upper trough is moving across the Mississippi River Valley. The increased cloud cover should keep temperatures above freezing areawide tonight. While the low clouds will gradually lift and scatter during the day Saturday, high level cirrus clouds will increase across the region ahead of the next large upper trough moving onto the West Coast.
533 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019 Widespread rain is expected tonight and Saturday with crossing low pressure. No significant accumulation is expected, though colder areas across the higher terrain could see a couple of inches.
Areas under heavier snow will see snowpacked roads, while areas with rain or lighter snow will see wet and slushy roads refreezing after dark. Sharp contrast in temperatures will persist into tonight, but cooler air will filter into the west, for a significantly cooler night that previous nights.
1118 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019 Widespread rain is expected tonight and Saturday with crossing low pressure. No significant accumulation is expected, though colder areas across the higher terrain could see a couple of inches.
1019 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2019 Upper ridge over the west will flatten out. Saturday, an approaching short wave trough in the subtropical westerlies will tighten up the midlevel height gradient.
1038 PM MST Fri Dec 13 2019 Winds diminishing slowly over the area this afternoon and high winds no longer expected so have cancelled the High Wind Warning. Over the plains an inch or two should be the rule, mainly falling on Saturday, with a bit more possible around the Pine Ridge.
-Mottice Cold front has pushed to our south this afternoon but the upper air support for it is weak.
Southerly flow along with sunny skies will allow for the warmer temperatures to continue with highs reaching the low to mid 70s over most of SE Texas.
A backdoor cold front is expected to hold highs below 50 in the northeast, while the southwest Texas Panhandle is expected to rise into the lower-60s.
1057 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2019 Main forecast concerns for this evening are on the potential for freezing drizzle. A brief shot of snow can be expected with the wave through mid evening, then patchy freezing drizzle is expected on the back side of the wave. Ice is lost aloft as the wave departs so if precipitation occurs it will be in the form of patchy freezing drizzle. Also some patchy fog is expected, but visibilities should stay above 3 miles, but may be lower on ridge top locations. Another trough moves across southern Ontario on Saturday with snow showers possibly lingering across northern Wisconsin.
After that, conditions look basically dry for the rest of the time period as ridging aloft spreads into the region.
A cold front will sweep across the area late tonight and Saturday morning, which will result in a much colder day Saturday, especially across the northern part of the forecast area.
116 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019 Widespread rain is expected tonight and Saturday with crossing low pressure. No significant accumulation is expected, though colder areas across the higher terrain could see a couple of inches.
Only had to make minor adjustments to pop and the temperature/dewpoint fields to tweak the back edge of the highest pops for light rain to match current radar and satellite depiction of the axis of deepest moisture/lift. Chattanooga Airport, TN 52 38 55 46 63 / 20 10 10 40 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 38 50 44 63 / 30 10 10 40 60 Oak Ridge, TN 51 38 51 44 61 / 20 10 10 40 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 35 48 39 60 / 80 30 10 30 50.
344 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019 Rain is expected today with crossing low pressure.
There will be a rain/snow mix in the lower valleys. Forecast was updated earlier for rain/snow mix in the lower valleys tonight.
Areas of dense fog have developed ahead of the cold front this morning over southeast Wisconsin. This will also bring concerns for slick roads as temperatures are below freezing. Areas of freezing drizzle will also be possible this morning as the trough axis swings through. This could result in a light glaze of ice on surfaces with temperatures below freezing. Any freezing drizzle should clear out with the passage of the 925mb front with dry conditions expected for the afternoon. Quiet conditions will continue overnight as high pressure builds in from the west with temperatures dropping into the single digits and teens.
A developing cold front will shift winds slightly around to the northeast, with somewhat increased speeds toward sunrise Sunday, and low clouds will begin to fill in across the region. This will be short-lived as a cold front will pass through this area not long after daybreak with northwest wind and an initial rise in temperatures.
Regardless of clouds, it will be a cold day across western and central North Dakota as cold high pressure propagates south- southeast across the region. Cyclonic northwest flow aloft to begin the week is forecast to transition to mean upper level ridging across the Northern Plains mid to late in the week by the 00 UTC global suite. This warmer and drier period of weather is highlighted well by the GEFS plumes, CIPS analogs, and CPC Days 6-10 outlooks.
357 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2019 Extensive stratus remains shrouded over the area early this morning, with areas of freezing drizzle, freezing fog/mist, and flurries. Areas here are predicted to drop into the low -20s. Did warm highs a bit closer to the 50th percentile and are a tad warmer than the NBM, similar to the last cold surge.
Winds to veer to onshore orientation by early Sunday to onset moisture return into the region as warm front develops and gets drawn northward in response to cyclogenesis in west Texas.