Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
503 PM MDT Sat Jul 18 2020 Water vapor shows upper trof working through the Northern Plains with weak upper ridging over the Pac NW. As temps rise and return flow strengthens across our western zones in the afternoon, decreasing stability invof an inverted surface trof and an approaching short wave embedded in the northwest flow aloft will lead to some thunderstorm development in northeast WY by mid afternoon.
For Sunday the severe weather threat will increase due to the higher low level moisture and stronger flow aloft. Temperatures will be a little cooler on Sunday behind the front, but still close to 90 degrees.
522 PM MDT Sat Jul 18 2020 Showers and storms have developed over a majority of the high terrain across the area. Tonight the high pressure will continue the process of splitting with one piece over AZ and the other over TX.
Isolated showers/thunderstorms currently in central ND continue to slowly slide east as the upper-level trough moves through. Across the east central we expect the showers there to continue to diminish as they move out of the area as the low level frontogenetic forcing, which has sustained them today, is now diminish.
Current forecast looks in good shape with overnight low temperatures in the lower to mid 70s common across the forecast area.
622 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020 The cold front will continue to push through the CWA the remainder of this afternoon and evening. As for Sunday, temperatures will be cooler with the colder airmass in place.
628 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020 Isolated showers/thunderstorms currently in central ND continue to slowly slide east as the upper-level trough moves through. Across the east central we expect the showers there to continue to diminish as they move out of the area as the low level frontogenetic forcing, which has sustained them today, is now diminish.
Dry and warm weather continues this eve for most of the area with eroding high pressure, but changes are underway as higher dewpoints are suging toward the region and fueling some light showers south of MGW.
Strong boundary layer warming continues this afternoon, beneath a flat mid-level ridge axis extending across much of the southern Plains and southeastern CONUS. Although synoptic scale support for the development of convection is essentially non-existent in this regime, the combination of air temperatures in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the lower 70s has resulted in an uncapped environment, thus allowing for the development of a few showers and thunderstorms. Given weak and unorganized flow throughout the lower troposphere, wind gusts in the 40-50 MPH range and frequent lightning will be the primary threats.
The mid- level ridge is forecast to weaken some on Sunday with a disturbance bringing the possibility of convection into northeast OK late in the day.
825 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2020 A subtropical ridge over the southern half of the CONUS and a broad Bermuda High will continue to provide PA with hot and humid weather for the next few days. Then, we'll wait for a front to drop down across the lower lakes and crank up convection. As the forcing runs into the ridging in place, it will have a tough time breaking it down. Ridging in place to start the work week with weak westerly flow.
Upper ridge draped across TN, north MS, AL and GA will remain in place over the next 12-24 hours. Weak surface and Mid and upper level ridge remains in place through the short term and should help to keep these storms from getting to strong. The Mid to upper level ridging is centered mainly across N GA right over the deeper lower level moisture moving in from the NE. 01 High pressure and weak zonal flow will remain in place for most of the forecast period. High pressure aloft will keep us in a hot an humid pattern fueling afternoon thunderstorms.
Temperatures are still hovering in the low to mid 80s with heat index values at 90F or above. Guidance continues to portray an upper level trough swinging through the Central U.
Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across portions of our MN counties behind the cold front, but have been struggling to gain strength until they get close to the boundary in central MN. A surface cold front has pushed just east and southeast of the FA this afternoon, with light northwesterly flow across the area. but a building H5 ridge aloft will hep to provide subsident drying and suppress shower activity.
525 PM MDT Sat Jul 18 2020 Isolated to widely scattered showers & thunderstorms will continue to develop across southeast Wyo and the western Neb Panhandle thru the afternoon & evening as a cold front stalls along the Wyoming & Colorado border. A strengthening SSE low level jet interacting with the W-E oriented warm front across east central WY and the northern NE Panhandle could promote chances for elevated thunderstorms, especially between 09z-15z. Moist south to southeast low-level flow will yield dew points in the 50s and even low 60s on Sunday across the high plains.
342 PM MDT Sat Jul 18 2020 An upper level ridge is visible over the desert southwest via water vapor imagery and a closed low pressure center is located over Saskatchewan. The upper low located to the north will push a front over southern Colorado after midnight. The cold front will cool temperatures off tomorrow afternoon over the plains. Expect high temperatures in the low to mid 90s for the plains, the low to mid 80s over the mountain valleys and Teller County, and the mid 70s over Lake County. Shower and thunderstorm development is likely to be ongoing at the start of the period Sunday evening, as development over the higher terrain likely persists.
/22/ Tonight and Sunday: Visible imagery showing an extensive cumulus field over the area, but very little convection, mainly confined to areas where the low level theta-e is maximized. Very Little convection is expected again Sunday and mainly confined to the south as sprawling mid/upper level ridge over the southern CONUS continues to build warmth/dryness aloft.
334 PM MDT Sat Jul 18 2020 Showers and storms have developed over a majority of the high terrain across the area. Tonight the high pressure will continue the process of splitting with one piece over AZ and the other over TX.
Upper level high pressure ridge to remain as the dominating feature for this taf cycle.
332 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020 H5 low pressure has gradually worked eastward overnight into western portions of Ontario. Large scale pattern continues to be dominated by broad ridging across the southern half of the CONUS, with progressive quasi-zonal flow along the northern extent of this ridge.
Mostly clear skies this evening as upper level ridge remains over the area with dry northwest flow. Warmer day expected Sunday with most areas seeing 90 to 95, with 70s to lower 80s mountains.
However given that there is decent shear aloft and the High temperatures are in the upper 80s to mid 90s. This system will continue to move across the Lower peninsula through the early evening hours. -Line of showers and storms overnight through Sunday morning Another line of showers and thunderstorms, emanating from a long wave trough will traverse the region overnight tonight into tomorrow morning. The models are in a fair agreement on the placement of the upper level low over southern Canada. The trough with a decent pressure gradient will be the impetus for the strength this storm system.
321 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020 Early this morning a surface cold front was moving southeast across north central KS. I'll trend towards the GFS and RAP models which show the higher values of 2000-3000 J/KG of MLCAPE along and south of the front across areas along and south of I-70. Highs Today northwest of the boundary will be in the mid to upper 80s, while high temperatures along and south of the boundary across the southeast counties of the CWA will be in the lower to mid 90s.
147 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 A subtropical ridge over the southern half of the CONUS and a broad Bermuda High will continue to provide PA with hot and humid weather for the next few days. A weak cold front moving southeast from the Upper Great Lakes will generate strong storms Sunday evening. Mostly clear skies throughout central PA early this morning with light winds beneath a weak ridge at the sfc and aloft. As the forcing runs into the ridging in place, it will have a tough time breaking it down. Ridging in place to start the work week with weak westerly flow.
The cold front is just to the south/southeast of the forecast area at this time.
SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): The inverted 500 mb trough axis that brought the conv to the RGV and Deep South TX yesterday will drift steadily westward through Mon.
352 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020 (Today and Tonight) Upper level ridging will become centered across the Southeast United States and the Desert Southwest today, resulting in slightly lower heights over West Central Texas.
/Issued 1154 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020/ /Through Sunday Night/ Upper level high pressure will continue to dominate the southern half of the CONUS, keeping North and Central Texas seasonably hot and generally rain-free. The only exception will be the low possibility of an isolated storm or two across the southeast zones Sunday afternoon. Low temperatures tonight and Sunday night will be in the lower and middle 70s, except for a few upper 70s around the Metroplex. Highs Sunday will be a degree or two warmer than today with mid and upper 90s. The ridge axis should assert enough control to limit rain chances across North Texas, but less inhibition across South Texas will allow for diurnal convection that could impact portions of Central and East Texas each afternoon.
With dew points in the low 70s, we're going to be pushing Heat Advisory criteria again today.
High pressure to the southeast will continue driving Gulf moisture into the area with southwesterly flow.
In the near term, surface cold front has effectively moved south of the CWA.
and Monday Convection ahead of a cold front will exit the Lakeshore region an hour or two after sunrise, with drier and cooler air to follow for the next couple days.
The upper level flow pattern during the period will be characterized by an upper high from the southern Plains into the Southeast, which will deflect the bulk of the stronger wind flow across the northern third of the U. The high will be weak enough through much of the period to allow for the development of scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day. With time, it appears as though the upper high will strengthen ever so slightly, which may be enough to lessen the potential for daily shower/storm activity heading into late week. Highs should average around 90 into the lower 90s each afternoon, with nighttime lows from 70 to 75.
140 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 A subtropical ridge over the southern half of the CONUS and a broad Bermuda High will continue to provide PA with hot and humid weather for the next few days. A weak cold front moving southeast from the Upper Great Lakes will generate strong storms Sunday evening. Mostly clear skies throughout central PA early this morning with light winds beneath a weak ridge at the sfc and aloft. As the forcing runs into the ridging in place, it will have a tough time breaking it down. Ridging in place to start the work week with weak westerly flow.
/NEW/ /Through Sunday Night/ Upper level high pressure will continue to dominate the southern half of the CONUS, keeping North and Central Texas seasonably hot and generally rain-free. The only exception will be the low possibility of an isolated storm or two across the southeast zones Sunday afternoon. Low temperatures tonight and Sunday night will be in the lower and middle 70s, except for a few upper 70s around the Metroplex. Highs Sunday will be a degree or two warmer than today with mid and upper 90s. The upper level pattern will be characterized by two areas of high pressure, one across the Southwest US and another across the Southern Plains, placing our region beneath an area of weakness aloft. One solution hints at the potential for rain chances further inland, while another solution develops a closed low moving into the Coastal Bend.
While the overall trend for dewpoints has been cooler from day to day, forecast will have them on the higher side of guidance and result in continuing the Heat Advisory issued yesterday.
Expect cooler- than-average conditions to return to the region by midweek.
350 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020 Key message: One final day of heat before periodic chances of thunderstorms and cloud cover result in cooler weather. Further to the west over central Kansas, a weakening complex of showers and thunderstorms was present along the corridor of a slowly moving cold front. The cold front will gradually settle near the Interstate 70 corridor by this afternoon, once again serving as a focus for renewed convection. Additionally, this boundary will be the dividing line between areas still to experience another day of a dangerous combination of heat and humidity versus those areas to the north with cooler readings.
The western edge of an upper-level ridge over much of the southern U.
1016 PM MDT Sat Jul 18 2020 The cold front was analyzed to be south of most of the forecast area, and extending west to east across southern Wyoming at 20Z this afternoon. Dry and slightly cooler weather will be the focus across the area through Sunday through Sunday night.
427 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 A subtropical ridge over the southern half of the CONUS and a broad Bermuda High will continue to provide PA with hot and humid weather for the next few days. A weak cold front moving southeast from the Upper Great Lakes will generate strong storms this evening. Mostly clear skies throughout central PA early this morning with light winds beneath a weak ridge at the sfc and aloft. Slightly cooler air will filter into NW half of PA later tonight into Monday morning, and areas of river valley fog are likely there. Ridging in place to start the work week with weak westerly flow.
An upper level trough and cold front are steadily moving eastward across the northern plains early this morning. With the continued warm air advection and steady eastward movement of the cold front, showers/storms are expected to develop and move through southern Wisconsin yet this morning. The movement of the cold front and MCS has slowed down as it has moved eastward. After the cold front has moved through this morning and the storms have cleared southern Wisconsin, quite weather is expected to return. Skies will beginning clearing late Sunday morning and temperatures will climb back into the low to mid 80s. Monday through Tuesdayâ¦Forecast Confidenceâ¦Medium Monday, we will start to see weak high pressure build in with a rather short period of zonal UL flow through the day Monday.
At the surface, a broad area of high pressure will remain centered across the Southeast U. High temps today will reach the mid and upper 90s (low 90s coast), but with the high humidity levels factored in it will feel more like 103-108 degrees.
A cold front that extends from eastern IA to central KS will gradually become oriented more west-east with time as it moves south of stronger west winds aloft.
403 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 Atlantic high pressure will continue through much of the upcoming week with a weak trough of low pressure inland. The combination of temperatures in the low to mid 90s pretty much everywhere, and dewpoints of 75 to 80 degrees, will lead to a few hours of heat index values above 105 degrees and will continue the Heat Advisory today for all zones, except Downeast Carteret County, Ocracoke and Hatteras Island. Strong upper level ridging will continue Monday, providing hot and humid conditions with heat indices approaching 105 again.
Ridging to our east will sustain moisture return and dewpoint temps will remain elevated. A pattern shift will commence early Monday as the western fringe of persistent ridging weakens. Perturbations riding along the periphery of the ridge, coupled with abundant moisture and heating, will promote increasing rain/thunder chances Monday.
1237 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020 The cold front will continue to push through the CWA the remainder of this afternoon and evening. As for Sunday, temperatures will be cooler with the colder airmass in place.
1221 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020 High pressure will persist through the week.
After midnight the lower levels of the atmosphere slowly saturate with low extensive low cloudiness possible. Low temperatures fall into the low to upper 60 degree range. Low temperatures look to range from the low to mid 60s.
At the surface, high pressure over the western Dakotas and deepening low pressure over Ontario maintain will create a tighter pressure gradient over the northeastern CWA.
The main threat with these storms is going to be wind as the lower levels remain dry and CAPE struggling to get to 500 J/kg.
1150 PM MDT Sat Jul 18 2020 Showers and storms have developed over a majority of the high terrain across the area. Tonight the high pressure will continue the process of splitting with one piece over AZ and the other over TX. The midlevel trough over the Northern Plains will continue moving east, allowing the subtropical high to build back over the Southern Plains. A deepening trough off the Pacific Northwest will interact with a weak cutoff low off the California coast, which will stall the trough just off the coast for several days. The models are still up in the air with the evolution of the low pressure over the west coast. More convection expected again tomorrow afternoon, favoring the higher terrain.
1016 PM MDT Sat Jul 18 2020 Water vapor shows upper trof working through the Northern Plains with weak upper ridging over the Pac NW. As temps rise and return flow strengthens across our western zones in the afternoon, decreasing stability invof an inverted surface trof and an approaching short wave embedded in the northwest flow aloft will lead to some thunderstorm development in northeast WY by mid afternoon.
Deep layer ridging will prevail today, with a ribbon of dry mid- level air advecting through the Deep South.
307 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020 We will finally break the streak of 100's we have seen over the past two weeks with most locations staying below the century mark today! A weakening ridge along with deeper easterly flow will finally allow temperatures to cool closer to normal for the first time in a while. Rain chances will increase mainly for southern areas as the ridge looks to remain too strong over the Permian Basin.
The upper air maps from 00Z had the 700mb thermal ridge across Iowa into southern Minnesota and parts of western Minnesota. The 500mb low pressure system was over Montana. The pocket of 700mb higher dewpoints was across central and northern Minnesota across and as the trough swings through, the ribbon of moisture from MN into northern WI quickly shifts east across WI through 12Z.
This is a big (but expected) change from the past couple of days as the axis of an inverted trough (tropical wave) has pivoted westward into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. This leaves us on the drier side of the feature with the subtropical ridge axis across the southeastern US still driving lower tropospheric easterlies (albeit weaker) across the area.
Water vapor satellite imagery, in combination with recent RUC model initializations, showed a mid tropospheric ridge over the southern US and a trough from Saskatchewan down toward western SD. Surface analysis showed the cold front, which will be pushing through the area tonight, extending from a low pressure center over southeast SD back southwest into northeast CO. The atmosphere will be quite moist, with Precipitable Water (PW) values around 2 inches or more along and ahead of the cold front.
Even so it is not out of the question through given the high values of instability (like mix cape near 2000 j/kg). Once the cold front comes through skies will clear from west to east, that more than likely would be in afternoon west to early evening east.
The peninsula now lies in an area of drier air on the back side of Sat morning's inverted trough passage. Persistent pattern for the upcoming week as fairly deep high pressure ridging will remain north of FL and occasionally reinforced during the period. The Atlantic ridge axis remains north of the local waters with consistent E/SE flow 10- 15 kts.
08z/3am surface analysis shows a cold front extending from Lake Superior southwestward to Kansas. The other story today will be the heat and humidity, although the northern KILX CWA will see some relief due to additional cloud cover and N/NW winds behind the cold front. Further south, afternoon highs in the lower to middle 90s and dewpoints hovering in the middle to upper 70s will yield heat index readings above 100 degrees. The cold front will sink southward toward the I-64 corridor tonight, with scattered thunderstorms lingering across the S/SE CWA through the evening hours.
A slightly drier boundary layer and warmer conditions aloft have arrived to set the stage for Sunday and Monday.
Strong ridging aloft will remain in place across the region as we wrap up the weekend. Quiet conditions are expected tonight, as lows fall into the low and middle 70s. /19/ A rather stagnant weather pattern will be in place for the week as broad upper ridging will be in place.
This should allow for substantial destabilization over our southeast half by late in the day given good insolation, low level moisture pooling ahead of cold front, and impressive midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km. There are some lingering capping concerns but strong boundary layer heating and approaching cold front with decent 1000- 850mb convergence should be enough to overcome it and support SCT coverage. Latest guidance still has highs in the low/mid 90s for our SE zones and dewpoints should not be a problem ahead of approaching front.
Upper ridge over the mid south will weaken slightly towards the end of the period.
Latest short term model guidance suggests that little (if any) change in the general synoptic flow pattern can be expected through Monday night, as a subtropical ridge aloft will remain firmly in place across the southeastern states. With similar conditions expected to evolve during the day tomorrow, we are predicting showers and thunderstorms to initially develop between 15-17Z, mainly across the higher terrain to the east of Huntsville and in the vicinity of any mesoscale boundaries left from today's precipitation.
Then high pressure will bring summer like temperatures by the middle of the week, with some thunderstorm activity possible toward the end of the work week.
A cold front was back across Wisconsin and Iowa. Will have some low PoPs in the mid to late morning to account for uncertainty, but feel better chances for convection will be this afternoon as the cold front actually arrives. Best upper support will be northeast of the area, so will keep PoPs in the chance category or lower, and have the highest PoPs in the northeast. Dewpoints will be high, so the Heat Advisory still looks good, even if cloud cover makes highs a bit cooler.
As for temperatures, highs today look to reach around 90 degrees with lows tonight ranging from the low 60s across west central Kansas to around 70 degrees across south central Kansas.
this morning in advance of a cold front. An isolated tornado is also possible with the energy helicity index (EHI) upwards of 2 as more favorable shear parameters push into the area in advance of the approaching upper trough. With a front bisecting the area today, temperatures will range from the lower 80s over western-northern areas to near 90 over southeastern areas.
Upper level ridging aloft will continue to bring prevailing VFR flight rules through the next 24 hours. AD Chattanooga Airport, TN 96 75 98 75 96 / 30 10 20 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 96 74 97 73 96 / 20 10 20 20 50 Oak Ridge, TN 97 73 97 73 96 / 20 0 20 20 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 92 71 94 70 93 / 30 10 20 20 50.