Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The 14z surface analysis indicated that the cold front was approaching the forecast area and was situated across northeast Mississippi, extending northeast into southern middle Tennessee. Have also slightly tweaked precip chances this afternoon based upon the expected slightly slowing of the cold front into the forecast area. Still expect the cold front to make it through the forecast area by around 21z this afternoon.
The cold front is located over extreme southern portions of the forecast area and continues to move slowly south. Some showers are expected to develop near the cold front this afternoon but most of this activity should remain south of the forecast area. This will help to push a slow moving cold front south across the region today.
A cold front will pass through the area late this afternoon and this evening, which will end rain chances and raise ceilings.
1009 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 A cold front currently drapped across eastern Kentucky back into Middle Tennessee continues to push toward the eastern Tennessee Valley this morning. which will continue into the evening hours as a cooler air mass moves in. Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 65 88 64 / 70 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 63 84 62 / 80 10 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 81 62 85 61 / 80 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 57 82 56 / 80 10 10 0.
A ridge of high pressure and increasing offshore flow will likely bring another round of hot weather to the region later in the work week.
Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic remains south of central Florida today with profiler at the Cape showing a light low level westerly flow.
1026 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 A cold front will push through the region this afternoon, followed by a cooler airmass with much lower humidity.
730 AM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016 Scattered showers and thunderstorms today ahead of an approaching cold front which will bring cooler and drier air to the region. High pressure will dominate the weather until mid-week. Upper trough will rotate across the Great Lakes today with associated cold front pushing from the eastern Ohio Valley at midday through to the Atlantic coast by early evening. Dry cool air will filter into the region Monday as high pressure will be centered over the Ohio Valley.
An amplified trough will move across the Midwest and TN valley today while a deep layer ridge remains anchored from the southwest Atlantic west into the central Gulf. A vort max over east Texas this morning will move east northeast into central MS by this afternoon on the far southern edge of the longwave trough. This feature combined with a weak front/pressure trough dropping south into the far northern forecast area by this afternoon should be enough to trigger scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms in the presence of precipitable waters at or above 2 inches and MLCAPES of 2500-3000 J/kg. Maintained the highest rain chances (60%) over the northwest forecast area which will be closer to the aforementioned surface and upper air features with 40-50% rain chances further south.
The cold front has made it to far southeast AR at this time with the northwest to north flow taking over the state. / Issued 623 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Drier air continues to filter into the state behind a cold front that is pushing SE through the state. activity developing near a cold front that was progressing SE through the state. Much cooler and less humid conditions will be seen tonight as the drier air continues to filter into the state. The cold front will attempt to lift back north as a warm front on Mon into Mon night.
No significant changes to the forecast this morning as large broad weak low pressure system continues to dominate the weather for another day. A trough aloft will continue to produce unusually cool mid-level temperatures for this time of year in addition to weak upward motion.
Westerly flow will persist but with temperatures climbing into the low to mid 90s we will have sufficient instability to support a few thunderstorms developing but have limited PoPs to around 30 percent.
This will help to push a slow moving cold front south across the region today.
627 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Low pressure develops across Srn Alberta today and tonight. South winds increase to 10 to 15 mph this morning and a thermal ridge will build east into Wrn Nebraska.
623 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016 High pressure centered over the central Plains will build east across the Mid Mississippi Valley today and into the Ohio Valley by early Monday morning. Highs in the mid 70s to around 80 today combined with this low humidity will feel more like September 21 than August 21.
Heights build into the area today as a ridge slides in. This will serve to increase mid level downslope flow, leading to warmer temperatures today and Monday. Highs will move back to the lower 90s today and lower to mid 90s on Monday. A cold front will move into the west and this should enhance low level lift, but may not be enough to overcome limited moisture.
An upper-level trough swinging through the OH/TN Valley region and the associated surface front moving in from the northwest should lead to scattered to numerous showers and storms once again across the forecast area. As the upper-level trough becomes displaced from the front, it will lose forward speed and stall across the CWA on Monday.
A typical summertime pattern of upper level ridging and a weak surface pressure pattern will continue to dominate the southeast states today. Today's PoP distribution appears similar to yesterday with the highest deep layer moisture and best storm chances across the northwest half of the area and the lowest chances across the southeast big bend. High temperatures are expected to reach the low to mid 90s with peak heat index values mostly in the 102-106 range.
Deep layer ridge south of the area. There is a bit more moisture in the low levels and some additional moisture convergence and this has resulted in quickly formation of sct-bkn cumulus over the FL Big Bend area and a couple of showers in that area.
The highest winds this morning are being reported at the Dry Tortugas, near 10 knots. A trough will move off the East Coast States this afternoon through Monday afternoon. This trough will fracture the Atlantic ridge, which will lead to peaks and lulls in winds across the area. The highest of these winds should be over the outer Florida Straits and Gulf waters around the Dry Tortugas. The low end rain chances currently in the forecast after midweek look reasonable. The Atlantic ridge will fracture due to the trough moving off the East Coast States through Monday afternoon.
717 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Low pressure located north of the Great Lakes will depart northeast across Ontario today, pulling a secondary cold front south across the area this evening.
An upper level trough is moving ashore in British Columbia this morning and will move into the Pacific Northwest this afternoon. Due to a southwest flow developing over the area, most of the area will be similar to or a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday. In and near the Cascades it will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler due to cooler air arriving in the afternoon and increasing winds through the day. The winds combined with low relative humidities will create dangerous fire weather conditions and a Red Flag Warning remains in effect for most of the lower elevations.
The cold front will be knocking on the door near the TN/KY border in the next several hours, and shower activity just ahead of the front is pretty widespread across southern KY currently. Cooler temps will move in behind the front and clear skies look to continue to start the work week.
737 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 A strong, dry cold front will move through the area tonight. Cool high pressure will build in from the northwest over the weekend.
In the lower levels, a dry airmass that is already in place will be reinforced with a weak cold front moving into the forecast area from the north today and then south across the forecast area and into the Gulf tonight. High pressure will begin rebuilding into the region from the north tonight in the wake of this front. Highs today in the low to mid 70s across the region, with lows tonight ranging from the low to mid 40s inland and upper 40s to around 50 at the coast.
As an amplified ridge prevails across the western half of the country, a cutoff low continues to spin around the desert southwest and north central Mexico. This increase in winds is mainly associated with the increasing pressure gradient ahead of a cold frontal passage later this evening into the overnight. The nearly zonal oriented cold front should then pass over the region between 00Z-03Z (6PM-9PM) tonight. Antecedent dry profile will preclude and precipitation from occurring with this cold front passage. Temperatures should rise only into the low to mid 60s.
630 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 A strong cold front will bring a few light rain showers and gusty winds to New York today.
752 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 An approaching cold front will move through the forecast area early tonight. The pressure ridge behind the front will extend through the Ohio River Valley Saturday.
Nonetheless, ridge axis dropping se across the area during the evening combined with precipitable water under one-quarter inch will favor strong cooling during the evening. Late week, attention turns to what could be a significant mid-upper trough moving out over the Plains and the associated strong low pres center. Models differ on the track of the low with the 12z GFS tracking the low just west of Lake Superior late Fri and the 12z ECMWF bringing the low through central Upper Mi.
/EC/ Today through tonight, High pressure with mostly clear skies have allowed temperatures to fall into the mid/upper 30s over much of North Central and Northeast MS overnight, and this has resulted in the threat for patchy frost in the Golden Triangle region. Dry northwest flow aloft will send another cold front toward the forecast area later today into tonight. This rain-free front will push through the ArkLaMiss region overnight and bring a reinforcing push of drier and cooler air.
Clouds increase tonight across southeast Oregon as a short wave trough approaches the coast.
620 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 A weak cold front will push south across the region this morning. A weak cold front currently pushing into northern Ohio will continue to work its way south through our area this morning. This should also help keep temperatures on the cooler side, ranging from the lower 50s in the north to the mid to upper 50s in the south.
612 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 High pressure will continue to build into the region today before a cold front with limited moisture crosses the region tonight, ushering in dry and much cooler weather for the weekend.
648 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 Aviation A cold front has pushed through Lower Michigan overnight with cooler air flowing in from the north. Yesterday highs rose into the lower 60s in many areas, but today we will hold in the 40s to around 50. A dry weekend is expected with high temperatures in the lower to middle 50s. A quiet weather pattern is expected in the short term with upper level ridging in place much of the time. Ridging takes hold from tonight through Saturday night which will bring fair weather.
The ridge of high pressure will continue to be the dominant feature over the Northern Rockies today causing strong valley inversions. The ridge begins to break down on Saturday as a cold front makes its way through the region.
Upper ridging continues over the region this morning with upper moisture from the W Gulf streaming through the N Gulf as seen in WV imagery. Weak high pressure in the region to keep dry conditions in place today with cool morning temps slowly warming through the day with scattered cirrus but temps staying near to slightly below normal today for a pleasant Veteran's Day. Upper trough dropping from the Great Lakes to suppress upper ridging tonight and Saturday.
A weak cold front will push into West Central Texas from the north today. This front will bring winds from the north and cooler temperatures.
658 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 A cold front will sweep south across the region today followed by much cooler air that will continue through Saturday as a large area of high pressure builds southward from Canada.
542 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2016 Early morning water vapor imagery and 00z upper-air analysis revealed a high-over-low blocking pattern present from western Canada to northwest Mexico with a downstream trough amplifying from Ontario into the Great Lakes. In the low levels, a cold front stretched from the Great Lakes through lower Missouri Valley to central High Plains as of 06z. The blocking pattern aloft will be maintained today into Saturday before the prevailing ridge over the north-central U.
943 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 High pressure still over the region with temperatures now above freezing. Lows tonight will be slightly warmer but still frost possible mountains and Northeast third of forecast area.
408 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2016 Surface analysis this morning has weak high pressure over much of Texas. Water vapor imagery shows closed upper low over the S Rockies with SW flow aloft over much of the Texas Gulf coast. Lift from an embedded short wave trough has allowed for a few showers to develop from College Station to Bay City. An amplified upper level pattern should continue as the upper low over the S Rockies shears out over Texas as another trough axis shears out over the Mid-South.
Confidence is low on how quickly the models dry out the low levels so will maintain likely pops across the Lower Valley much of the morning. Pops to remain on the lower side of guidance across the west with light precipiation at best. Plenty of clouds today, even with the lower layers drying out, to keep the diurnal range of temperatures within 10 degrees making for another cool day. The low level dry air becomes a bit more established across the much of the CWA but with the mid level low still to the west plenty of mid and high level moisture and weak disturbances within the southwest flow could allow for some additional light pockets of rain developing.
Behind the passing cold front this morning, winds will be out of the north to northeast between 10 to 20 kts with some gusts over 20 kts possible as we go into the afternoon hours. /Issued 309 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2016/ Cold front across the northern Texas Panhandle will continue to sweep southward and should be south of the CWA by around sunrise. The light winds and mainly clear skies should allow temperatures to fall to around freezing or below in the Freeze Watch area. Dew points above freezing Friday evening are going to have to drop fairly quickly to allow temperatures to fall to around freezing for any period time tonight.
949 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 Colder airmass arriving with a cold front today and tonight.
308 AM PST Fri Nov 11 2016 High pressure aloft will bring warm weather and above average temperatures Friday, followed by minor cooling Saturday.
1017 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 A dry cold front is passing through the area today.
The 12Z sounding this morning showed very dry air aloft, and even drier air will push south into the region during the day ahead of another cold front.
541 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2016 (Today) Cold front as of 0800 UTC is currently aligned along a KSGF>>KUUV>>K1H2 line and will push through far southeastern portions of the CWA around daybreak. expect cooler conditions along with a partly cloudy to mostly clear sky. expect a chilly night across the bi-state area with lows in the low to mid 30s. While some areas will likely bottom out near or even slightly below the freezing mark. elected to not issue a freeze warning since a brief dip of temperatures to near freezing should only have minimal impacts.
941 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 A strong, dry cold front will move through the area early this evening. Cool high pressure will build in from the northwest over the weekend.
Upper ridge slides across the region today with continued warm and dry weather.
High pressure will keep things nice for the most part. Then only fly in the ointment is Saturday afternoon, where a weak trough could bring some light showers to areas north of I-80.
555 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 High pressure will continue to build into the region today before a cold front with limited moisture crosses the region tonight, ushering in dry and much cooler weather for the weekend.
Weak cold front in the TX Panhandle will slide south across the terminals today with winds veering from W through N and NE. /issued 420 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2016/ Upper level low currently over southern New Mexico will move very little and continuing to slowly weaken over the next 24 hours. A weak cold front currently oriented from northeast New Mexico across the Texas Panhandle and into northwest Oklahoma will gradually shift south across west Texas today while becoming more diffuse.
525 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 High pressure will continue to build into the region today before a cold front with limited moisture crosses the region tonight, ushering in dry and much cooler weather for the weekend.
558 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2016 High pressure means decreasing northerly winds with ample sunshine today.
501 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 A cold front will sweep south across the region today followed by much cooler air that will continue through Saturday as a large area of high pressure builds southward from Canada.
A strong positively tilted upper ridge remains in control this morning. The ridge will weaken Saturday as a weak short wave trough moves over the Pacific NW.
420 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2016 Upper level low currently over southern New Mexico will move very little and continuing to slowly weaken over the next 24 hours. A weak cold front currently oriented from northeast New Mexico across the Texas Panhandle and into northwest Oklahoma will gradually shift south across west Texas today while becoming more diffuse.
(Today thru Sun) Cold front is currently located over central IL this morning. Fcst lows will be in the lower to mid 30s, but colder sub-freezing temps will be likely for low and outlying areas.
1012 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 A cold front will sweep south across the region today followed by much cooler air that will continue through Saturday as a large area of high pressure builds southward from Canada.
1024 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 A weak cold front will push south across the region this morning. Some mid clouds associated with a digging H5 trof have dropped into the region. Still expect high the 50s today, ranging from the lower 50s in the north to the mid to upper 50s in the south.
/ISSUED 408 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2016/ Surface analysis this morning has weak high pressure over much of Texas. Water vapor imagery shows closed upper low over the S Rockies with SW flow aloft over much of the Texas Gulf coast. Lift from an embedded short wave trough has allowed for a few showers to develop from College Station to Bay City. An amplified upper level pattern should continue as the upper low over the S Rockies shears out over Texas as another trough axis shears out over the Mid-South.
626 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 A dry cold front will move across the area tonight, bringing the coldest air of the season by this weekend.
Sunny and dry this morning with a high pressure ridge extending from Texas along the Gulf Coast into Florida, producing light northerly winds. Light NW flow overnight will veer to NNE/NE in the low levels late.
One or two showers and maybe even a thunderstorm are possible today in far southeast Arizona before slow moving low pressure responsible for recent windy conditions finally exits the area. A couple of disturbances rotating around the low will act on remaining mid level moisture to produce cloud buildups over mountains near the New Mexico and International Borders.
1035 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 An approaching cold front will move through the forecast area early tonight. The pressure ridge behind the front will extend through the Ohio River Valley Saturday.
/issued 346 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2016/ A cut-off upper-level cyclone continues to spin over the southern Rockies early this morning, detached from strong northwesterly flow aloft over the Great Lakes.
541 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2016 A dry cold front was pushing southward across the central IL forecast area early this morning having reached the I-70 corridor as of 2 a. Following the cold front. lingering into the evening before dissipating as the high brings increased subsidence and disrupts the low level flow off the lake.
544 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2016 Uupper lvl clouds across area will begin to decrease this eve as a weak cold front moves swd into the area, bringing vfr skc conditions overnight. /issued 217 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2016/ A dry cold frontal boundary will move south across the region today with high temperatures forecast to climb into the mid 70s.
304 AM PST Fri Nov 11 2016 High pressure will prevail through the end of the week with dry conditions, light winds and above average daytime temperatures.
726 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 A cold front will bring a shower or sprinkles and clouds today. Clouds are still expected to spread over the area this morning as a cold front ploughs across the region. High pressure will push southeast this evening, as upper level heights begin to rise.
VFR conditions will continue at all sites with a passing cold front today bringing only a wind shift. a weak cold front was positioned from New Mexico through Eastern Kansas. Cold air advection and northerly flow behind the front should help to keep afternoon temps slightly cooler compared to yesterday.
941 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 A dry cold front will move across the area tonight, bringing the coldest air of the season for this weekend.
642 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 A dry cold front will move across the area tonight, bringing the coldest air of the season by this weekend.
A powerful ridge remains the dominant feature over our region today and into the weekend. A fast moving Pacific Short Wave will temporarily break down the ridge by Saturday evening. Winds from near the surface through the upper atmosphere remain downslope oriented with this system so we are not expecting much more than an increase in cloud cover and maybe a few sprinkles in the lower elevations.
1038 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 A strong cold front will bring a few light rain showers and gusty winds to New York today.
824 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2016 A cold start this morning with temps at 8am just now going above freezing for parts of NE AL and southern middle TN. Synoptically speaking, an amplified ridge prevails across the western half of the country and a cutoff low continues to spin around the desert southwest and north central Mexico. This increase in winds is mainly associated with the increasing pressure gradient ahead of a cold frontal passage later this evening into the overnight. The nearly zonal oriented cold front should then pass over the region between 00Z-03Z (6PM-9PM) tonight. Antecedent dry profile will preclude and precipitation from occurring with this cold front passage. Temperatures should rise only into the low to mid 60s.
610 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 Colder airmass arriving with a cold front today and tonight.
612 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2016 Cooler air will continue to filter into the region today as a strong southern Canada high pressure system drops southeast through the western Upper Great Lakes through tonight. Continued cold air will advect into the region as strong surface anticyclone over south central Canada slides southeast into the Upper Mississippi Valley/western Upper Great Lakes by this evening. For tonight the ridge becomes elongated e-w through the southern Great Lakes and will allow for quick decouple/idyllic longwave radiant losses upon sunset. Initial upstream blocking pattern maintains high latitude northern belt with only dry/rather weak clipper features Mon evening/night and again Tue night. Thermal moderation to again above normal temps for much of the week, reinforced by midweek central CONUS ridging in advance of significant amplitude wave into west coast about Wed.