Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
422 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2017 Early morning satellite imagery together with GFS 500mb heights and winds showed a negatively tilted upper level trough approaching the high plains of the Dakotas, with a downstream ridge across Minnesota. An the surface the high pressure associated with the aforementioned ridge was located over Lake Superior, with a tightening pressure gradient toward the west and this will lead to breezy southeast winds, especially in southwest Minnesota. The dry southeast wind associated with this pressure gradient was advecting slightly drier air across the region, which will help to keep the precip associated with the aforementioned negatively tilted trough confined to mainly western Minnesota today, and then increasing eastward in coverage later tonight. The warm front associated with the low pressure system lifts into southern MN on Sunday.
Overnight temps should fall into the 40s with 30s across the higher elevations. Noticeably cooler temps can be expected for the weekend. Mid and upper level cloudiness along with a few light rain showers along cold front and associated upper level wave over the eastern half of the forecast area will continue to slowly move off to the east overnight. A cold front and associated cloudiness will move east of the Cascades tonight.
426 AM MDT Sat Sep 30 2017 A -25C core @ 500mb closed low will drop into the Pacific NW over the next 36 hours, with excellent dynamics and a strong upper level jet accompanying it. The cold core closed low will drop further south as a 100+ kt upper level polar jet reaches eastern UT and western CO Sunday morning. Showers and thunderstorms may continue across NE Utah and NW Colorado Sunday morning, but will further develop Sunday afternoon as the cold front associated with this system stalls somewhere near the I-70 corridor.
226 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017 An early morning surface analysis showed a strong 1030 mb high pressure over northern Wisconsin encompassing much of the Great Lakes and lower Ohio Valley. This has ushered in drier and cooler air, evident by the GOES 16 precipitable water values ranging from 0. A pleasant and dry day is on tap for the region as high pressure slides across the Great Lakes. The air mass will remain dry as dewpoints mix down into the lower 40s while high temperatures top out in the lower 70s. Another clear and seasonably cool night is expected tonight as the high center moves to New York. With a slight moderation in the air mass, plan on highs to reach the lower to middle 70s.
A surface cold front will push across the region as an upper level trough deepens and becomes established across the western U. Additionally, due to abundant clouds and precipitation as well as associated height falls with the upper trough, expect considerably cooler temperatures on Sunday with highs only in the 50s, some 20 degrees lower when compared with Saturday.
414 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2017 Today through Tonight: Latest satellite and rap imagery showed broad deep layer ridging across the region.
238 AM MDT Sat Sep 30 2017 08z surface analysis had high over the Great Lakes with low over southern BC, which had a frontal boundary into central NE and a lee trough into central WY. Water vapour loop showed upper low spinning across southeast MT moving northeast. Today, upper low moves northeast and weakens. Gradient will be rather tight with gusty southerly winds persisting over the SD plains and easing over northeast WY as the lee trough progresses east. Thermal ridge peaks with readings well into the 70s. Tonight, upper trough over southwest Canada into the Rockies will deepen. Sunday, upper trough continues to deepen as upper low develop over MT. -SHRA possible with TS across the south as cold front moves through rest of CWA.
648 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017 Dry conditions are forecast through the middle of the week as high pressure builds across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Cool temperatures today will gradually increase over the next few days as a southerly flow develops behind the high.
Will have a bit clearer skies tonight compared to last night meaning temperatures will drop a few degrees cooler (into the 40's in NE Tennessee/SW Virginia).
358 AM PDT Sat Sep 30 2017 A low pressure system developing over the interior western states will bring stronger onshore flow with periods of gusty west winds in the mountains and deserts.
342 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017 Dry conditions are forecast through the middle of the week as high pressure builds across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Cool temperatures today will gradually increase over the next few days as a southerly flow develops behind the high.
/issued 358 PM EDT Fri Sep 29 2017/ Mid/upper level trough and associated closed low centered over the northeast Gulf waters combined with the western edge of the Atlantic high are keeping a prevailing southerly flow aloft across South FL. NHC in the latest update has a 40 percent chance of developing into a tropical cyclone for the next few days. The models show the low migrating north through Saturday with deep tropical moisture remaining across the area.
343 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017 H5 pattern this morning had a trough of low pressure extending from the Ozarks southwest into Texas. West of the ridge, a trough of low pressure was situated from the British Columbia coast south into northern California. At the surface, high pressure was situated over eastern Colorado into western Kansas and southwestern Nebraska. With high pressure dominating across the high plains his morning, skies were mainly clear and winds were light. High pressure will retreat east today into southeastern Kansas by late afternoon. Deep layer shear is on the order of 10 to 20 KTS along the trough later today so support for supercell thunderstorms is weak at best. Showers and thunderstorms arrive late Tuesday as a low pressure system over southern Canada drags a cold front across the northern Plains.
323 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017 Upper low currently located near Texarkana with several spokes of energy wrapping around it. That having been said, with the impulses wrapping around the upper low, still expect there to be enough organized lift for several periods of showers and thunderstorms over the next 36 hours. See no reason to back away from the high POPs in the previous forecast package for today through Tuesday.
Later today into tonight as the cold front pushes southeast, much of the instability will dissipate with showers expected into early tonight. As the front slowly pushes southeast, some lingering showers may still be in the southeast on Tuesday morning but will begin to see clearing conditions with a cooler airmass in place. The period should start off dry, as deep moisture drops further south, and drier air wraps around the south side of a mid/upper level area of low pressure centered over New York state.
Outside of a few lingering showers across central and eastern portions of southwest Kansas this afternoon, a quiet and dry period can be expected through late Monday afternoon as weak upper level ridging remains across the Colorado Rockies and the Western High Plains. Seasonal temperatures can be expected again tonight with little change to the general air mass across the high plains.
Tonight Through Tuesday Showers and thunderstorms will continue through Monday, as remnant surface boundaries meander around the region, and upper low over the Red River Valley gradually shifts eastward. Precipitation should clear out Monday night and Tuesday, as the upper low weakens, becomes an open wave and pushes into the central Gulf Coast region. Behind it, meridional upper flow will usher cooler and drier air into the region.
Another vort max pushes into the region from the northwest as the mid-level low/trough moves by to our north.
Temps will fall back into the low/mid 40s, except around 50F south central. Will be a cooler day with north winds off Lake Superior and h85 thermal trough overhead. The stratus/fog at KCMX is expected to thin out as winds backing to the ne will be less favorable for the lower cigs.
300 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017 Cold front still north of FA, with water vapor imagery showing upper Low circulation center over Texas, with super saturated advection of deep seeded moisture wide open from the Gulf northward and across the mid Mississippi river valley. Model soundings show best/deepest isentropic upglide/moist advection this morning, with a drop-off thereafter, even though diurnally destabilizing atmosphere means storm chance will continue til cold front makes passage there this evening/overnight. We'll let Pops ride thru the front's passage during the evening, then drop them into silent range after fropa overnight, as the by then south Texas Low is pinched off by the Ohio river valley vort and cold front's passage.
A mid- level trough will push across the lower Mississippi River valley through Tuesday.
An area of low pressure will track across North Carolina this afternoon and track out to sea this evening. An upper level low pressure area will then spin over the northeastern U.
318 AM MST Mon Jun 5 2017 Little change in the weather pattern is expected through mid week as a strong high pressure system produces mostly clear, dry, and hot weather.
323 AM MDT Mon Jun 5 2017 The ridge axis that was over us yesterday has now shifted to the front range thanks to an approaching trough. This trough is supported by a jet streak which will remain over the northern rockies while we see very little upper level influence to our weather. Even so, thicknesses do indicate that this trough will just barely brush our forecast area. For Tuesday, high pressure, centered over southern AZ and NM, will build back in as the trough shifts east. Enough moisture will remain under the high to allow some afternoon convection to fire yet again.
/ISSUED 342 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017/ An upper level low was located over west central Texas early this morning and this feature will move east today and be located over SE TX by late this afternoon. Lift on the east side of the trough coupled with PW values near 1. Will keep rain chances in the forecast tonight as a weak cold front crosses SE TX and upper trough remains close. Will broadbrush 40-50 PoPs with the higher PoPs over the east and coastal regions.
/issued 359 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017/ The upper low that brought beneficial rains to the area over the past few days will continue to slide southeast toward the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, an upper ridge has been building to our west and northerly flow has developed aloft in between the two systems. Today looks fairly dry given subsidence on the backside of the upper low, but a few storms could make their way into western portions of the area off the higher terrain of NM.
441 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017 (Today and Tonight) The upper trough that has been bringing us rain over the last several days will continue to drift southeast toward the Texas coast.
313 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017 A low pressure system slowly drags a cold front through Monday night.
342 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017 An upper level low was located over west central Texas early this morning and this feature will move east today and be located over SE TX by late this afternoon. Lift on the east side of the trough coupled with PW values near 1. Will keep rain chances in the forecast tonight as a weak cold front crosses SE TX and upper trough remains close. Will broadbrush 40-50 PoPs with the higher PoPs over the east and coastal regions.
Dry and warmer weather continues through midweek as a ridge of high pres develops over the interior western U. A wetter and cooler pattern returns in the latter half of the week as a low pres system off the Pacific moves in over the Pacific NW.
Early morning GOES water vapor imagery showed an upper low over east TX, with a downstream plume of tropical moisture over the lower MS River valley, the Ohio River valley and southern Appalachia. The upper low center will drop into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico by early evening, with a trof axis extending northeast into central MS and and TN River valley. This trof axis will roughly correlate with the northward extent of mentionable rain chances. More robust deep convection will be far removed from the Midsouth- over the central and eastern Gulf coast, east of the upper low center. Drier and cooler air will spread into all the Midsouth Tuesday night, following a cold frontal passage under northerly flow aloft.
A lull in the rain is expected most of this morning as the upper level trough begins to phase with a larger upper level trough taking shape over the Great Lakes.
648 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017 Although there have been significant breaks from time to time, recent satellite trends suggest the low stratus deck overspreading the remainder of Se Mi by 12Z. Below normal temperatures over the next several days as the cold core upper level low (-24 C at 500 MB) currently just southwest of James Bay tracks through Lake Huron today, and into the Eastern Great lakes tonight/tomorrow. Heart of the cool air in the low levels in place on Tuesday, as 925 mb temps hold in the upper single numbers, and should be looking at highs holding in the 60s, with northern thumb region holding in the upper 50s.
Generally expecting slightly cooler temperatures today, along with a breezy east to northeast wind. Areas of SW Minnesota and NW Iowa may only reach the lower 80s.
553 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017 A stable post-frontal regime is anticipated across the area today as the slow moving mid/upper trough shears eastward away from the area. Both take the mid/upper ridge across the Rockies and translate it eastward through the weekend. Other than some diurnally driven storms drifting eastward off the high plains late in the week, we expect to see rising temperatures and mostly dry conditions by the weekend. Highs may climb into the lower 90s with lows in the low 70s. Strong and severe storms will likely accompany this trough as it moves across the central CONUS in the Mon-Tue timeframe as deep layer shear becomes more favorable.
Despite the seeming lack of rainfall, no changes will be made to the inherited Flash Flood Watch given the high chances of rain tomorrow, at times potentially heavy. Shower and thunderstorm chances will remain elevated Monday night through Tuesday as this upper level low over Texas will continue to slowly move southeast. Expect another enhanced round of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon as the cold front approaches. Once the mid/upper level trough axis moves east of the region, drier air at the surface and aloft associated with the cool front will move through the region Tuesday evening.
Some patchy fog in the low lying areas and near bodies of water will again be possible overnight with a moist boundary layer and weak surface flow. Will start to see a warming trend by the end of the week as we return to a more southerly flow in the low levels and southwesterly flow aloft.
00Z models have trended warmer with highs today in the 85-90F range with mostly sunny skies. Fair weather expected tonight as front pushes south across KY and weak Canadian high pressure of 1020 mb settles southward into the upper MS river valley. NNE winds bring cooler lows tonight in the mid to upper 50s, with Lawrenceville near 60F.
Warmer and drier weather will return towards the weekend. The warm front that moved over the region yesterday is now stationary and is located over central NY. Monday's lows will be in the low to mid 50s.
Thereafter, mostly dry weather is anticipated for the first half of the work week as high pressure remains to the west of the region. As earlier feared, surface dewpoints struggling to climb out of the low/mid 60s, far from most raw guidance. Passing wave will merge with James Bay upper low and form a seasonably strong cutoff/closed low over the eastern Great Lakes through at least midweek. Trend over the past few model cycles has been a slightly more westward location of upper low, increasing the influence on our area's weather. A couple of vorticity spokes will rotate around the upper low and, combined with relatively cool temps aloft, may support a the chance for a few showers and storms. Some weak low level convergence along secondary cold front structure but overall forcing is weak and precip mainly supported by steep-ish lapse rates.
353 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017 Upper level ridging over the high plains today will discourage thunderstorm activity.
High pressure will bring warm and dry conditions during the work week, followed by a storm system across the north bringing cooler temperatures for the weekend.
620 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017 Low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will move southeast today. pushing a slow moving cold front across the local area by tonight.
200 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017 A warm front, will bring showers, and a few thunderstorms, to the region this evening.
The dry, sunny weather will last into Monday as well, but temperatures will be a bit cooler than they were today. This potent PV anomaly will drive a cold front though the region which will decrease temperatures but keep the low dew points in place for Monday. The large scale pattern will feature an upper ridge nosing into the central CONUS through Tuesday.
155 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017 Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are expected for the first half of the week as upper low pressure settles over the region. The short term period will feature the digging of a very cold upper low over the Eastern CONUS with the latest solutions indicating a cutoff over the NY/PA border by Tuesday. Persistent, albeit lower amplitude, troughing is expected to continue into the weekend. Precipitation coverage will increase again Monday as the upper trough digs across the region. Ocnl restrictions are likely through mid week with persistent upper low pressure.
1133 PM MDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Thunderstorms have been slower to develop this afternoon due to weaker forcing under the ridge. Should be another mild night across the area with most locations in the mountains staying above freezing. This will allow the snow melt to continue across the high country resulting in continued rises along the rivers. Generally weak north to northwest flow aloft progged across the region as upper ridging flattens across the Central Rockies with a short wave riding the periphery of the ridge across the Northern Rockies and into the Northern High Plains. Ongoing convection across the higher terrain Monday afternoon tries to spread east across the immediate adjacent plains Monday evening, with convection expected to diminish through the late evening hours.
The period should start off dry, as deep moisture drops further south, and drier air wraps around the south side of a mid/upper level area of low pressure centered over New York state.
Winds are fairly light as the area in transition zone between exiting system and approaching ridge complex from the west. with lee-side troughing beginning over the Front Range. On Monday night, an upper ridge across the western half of the CONUS continues to be the dominant feature. Chances increase throughout the day as parameters improve and the ridge is suppressed by the Canadian system.
Initial flow aloft consists of southerly winds from the base of a digging trough approaching Northeast Montana.
229 AM MDT Mon Jun 5 2017 Current surface analysis has an area of low pressure over southern MT, with frontal boundary stretching southeast into central SD. Cold front stretches south from the low through western WY into UT. Upper level analysis shows slow moving low over the Southern Plains, with positively tilted ridge extending from the Southern Rockies to the northern high plains. It will be another warm day again today in advance of the slowly approaching cold front. The cold front will slowly move through south central SD on Tuesday. Highs will be cooler on Tuesday behind the front, with readings in the 70s and lower 80s.
Weak high pressure will take hold of the forecast through at least Tuesday leading to a typical summertime pattern. Look for warmer temperatures for interior regions while coastal areas generally remain under the influence of the marine layer.
451 AM MDT Mon Jun 5 2017 Current surface analysis has an area of low pressure over southern MT, with frontal boundary stretching southeast into central SD. Cold front stretches south from the low through western WY into UT. Upper level analysis shows slow moving low over the Southern Plains, with positively tilted ridge extending from the Southern Rockies to the northern high plains. It will be another warm day again today in advance of the slowly approaching cold front. The cold front will slowly move through south central SD on Tuesday. Highs will be cooler on Tuesday behind the front, with readings in the 70s and lower 80s.
Today Through Tuesday Night An upper level low pressure system will move across Arkansas today and tonight. This should be the end of the rainy pattern as the low pressure area will move off to the southeast. An upper ridge over the Rockies today will build eastward on Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely today as an area of low pressure slowly moves through the area. A cold front then moves through on Tuesday followed by high pressure which will bring cooler and drier air. The cooler air will be noticed Tuesday night.
The GFS does have some weak elevated CAPE of 300 Joules/kg with the trough axis. a cold front will move southward through the area, and exiting the far south around 9 am this morning. Cooler air is expected today, especially near Lake Michigan. This low stratus formation is beginning to expand and push southward from far northern Wisconsin.
204 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible until a cold front passes through the area on Monday. High pressure centered to the northwest of the area will spread in behind the front. Cold front will move through the area tomorrow. After the front moves through, clouds will decrease as high pressure starts to build in. Cold front will have cleared the CWA by Tuesday morning, but models continue to show a mid/upper low over the Eastern Great Lakes/Pennsylvania affecting our weather through mid-week before ejecting northward through New England toward the end of the week.
Strong ridge is building into area. Models started out well on the low level thermal field with the Gfs and the Canadian doing slightly better. Ridge hangs on strong through the day. Trend from yesterday is for the models to keep the mid level ridge over the area longer than yesterday. Considering this increasing cloud cover and the warmer temperatures given to me, the builder temperatures look reasonable will be keeping them. Also where the models are developing the highest rainfall has changed from yesterday. Majority of the output now produces the heaviest rainfall in the eastern portion of the area which matches up with the highest pwat values.
Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicate a closed low near Texarkana that is beginning to transition into more of an open wave. As the trough currently across the Great Lakes moves into the Ohio River Valley later today, 0-6 Km Bulk Shear Values will increase into the 30-40 kt range. This upper level flow will push a cold front through the area tonight with drier and cooler conditions expected to begin late tonight into Tuesday.
237 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017 A low pressure system slowly drags a cold front through Monday night.
Looking at bufkit/model soundings across the forecast area shows this stratus moving in but thinning/scattering out into shallow cumulus by afternoon and eventually clearing by this evening as high pressure builds south out of Canada. Otherwise, a pleasant/cooler day today with highs in the middle 70s to near 80. Cool and clear conditions in store for tonight with ridge of high pressure dead overhead. Plan on lows ranging from the middle 40s across the sand country of central WI, to the lower/middle 50s along and west of the Mississippi River. Sunny/dry/pleasant conditions set for Tuesday with the ridge of high pressure remaining overhead.
423 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017 A cold front dropping south across Ohio will be the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms today.