Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Clouds have also helped to keep temperatures on the warmer side overnight. Moisture is elevated and coming in from the Pacific NW, with little flow from the south in the lower levels today and Tuesday. Todays chance for thunderstorms is more isolated as the atmosphere is fairly caped and the moisture content in the lower levels are far lower than on Tuesday. As this happens moisture and instability are sufficient enough for a few scattered thunderstorms and showers to develop ahead of an approaching cold front. Cloud cover is limited to NE ND and far NW MN, which help keep temperatures on the warmer side. A warm day is in store for the region as temperatures reach the mid 80s today and the low to mid 80s for tomorrow.
An upper ridge over the Desert Southwest will extend into the region through Tuesday. Kept highs in the lower 90s areawide today and again Tuesday. A warm front will extend across northern NE Tuesday afternoon, with a weak focus for showers or thunderstorms.
Low pressure is over central Lk Erie and adjoining Ontario. In the wake of this low, light northerly low-level flow is in place across all of northern MI.
320 AM MDT Mon Aug 22 2022 Broad ridging aloft will prevail over the Tri-State area in this period. A weakening upper level wave -- trapped beneath the ridge in western CO (per 09Z WV imagery and SPC mesoanalysis data) -- will continue to de-amplify as it meanders slowly southward into NM today -- further weakening and/or dissipating altogether tonight and Tuesday.
This may overspread our area in the next few hours but by and large the day looks likely to remain mostly cloudy and with showers already around this will likely keep highs in the lower and middle 80s.
631 AM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022 Ridging over Central Great Basin will continue over the next few days while broad troughing continues in the east, leaving weak NW flow overhead. Mostly sunny skies and light east to southeast winds can be expected along with seasonable temperatures, highs in the low 90s and overnight lows in the 60s. Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side through the next 24 hours.
Today's weather similar to yesterday's as an upr-level trough axis remains positioned off to the west. Cooler on Tuesday with cloud cover keeping highs in the low to mid 80s inland, lower 80s along the coast.
934 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022 Showers and storms continue ahead of a cold front today. Drier and warmer conditions are then expected for the remainder of the work week, although isolated storms possible at times. A mid-level wave embedded in broader cyclonic flow overhead will provide the impetus to drive a weak cold front across the area this afternoon into this evening providing a focus for developing of additional showers and storms. Overall drier on Tuesday, although a few light showers/isold storms may linger across the far north and east under the influence of upper trough.
Highs Tuesday will be a few degrees cooler east of the divide with little change in the west. Towards the end of the forecast period, models have added hints at a slight pattern shift as a more developed trough looks to slide into the region. This would result in cooler temps and more widespread precipitation, if it does occur. The GFS and ECMWF remain in disagreement on the overall prorogation and amplitude of this trough.
Upper trough is lifting to the north through the PacNW early this morning. Combination of synoptic cooling from the trough and increased onshore flow has brought around 5-10 degrees of cooling compared to 24 hours ago. Eastern Pacific ridge re-establishes itself today, and will result in weakened onshore flow.
Expect the trough axis to slowly pass through the forecast area today. Precipitation should diminish this evening with the trough axis east of the forecast area with partial clearing allowing for patchy fog or low stratus development overnight. Dry conditions are then forecast the remainder of the period as high pressure transitions across the region.
While the low is expected to push EWD through the short term, the associated front looks to stall before making it into C AL waffling some tonight through Tuesday. In the upper levels, the open low over the Great Lakes will continue to deteriorate as it gets absorbed into the main trough through the short term with the overall E Conus trough weakening with very weak flow over AL by Tuesday. We remain in a wet pattern with continued expected successive perturbations going through the base of the weakening trough now through Tuesday.
High pressure over the region will produce hotter temperatures today and Tuesday. High pressure across the eastern Pacific will extend east over the area today and Tuesday.
A weak upper trough moves into the west coast today bring cooler, stable onshore flow over the region with cooler temperatures today. The upper trough deepens further with a closed upper low briefly closing over northern California.
KDTX reflectivity currently shows the effect of low-level convergence along the western edge of departing mature low pressure system with pockets of showers coming ashore INVOF the southern Lake Huron shoreline. Isolated to scattered showers will dot the region today as the back edge of moisture wrapped around low pressure to the east persists and daytime heating helps accentuate lift and allow for some minor expansion of this activity as diurnal cumulus field fills in with time. Temperatures will remain mild within the northerly flow in the wake of this low with highs in the upper 70s to around 80. As the upper low opens and moves off the the east/northeast, expect a flatter northwest flow regime to become established through the mid-late week period.
A weak cold front still looks to drop south across the area late this afternoon and evening. A much more unsettled pattern and slow-moving low pressure system still looks on track to bring in some monsoonal moisture for the next several days.
Isolated to scattered showers will dot the region today as the back edge of moisture wrapped around low pressure to the east persists and daytime heating helps accentuate lift and allow for some minor expansion of this activity as diurnal cumulus field fills in with time. Temperatures will remain mild within the northerly flow in the wake of this low with highs in the upper 70s to around 80. As the upper low opens and moves off the the east/northeast, expect a flatter northwest flow regime to become established through the mid-late week period.
PWATS a little higher ahead of a warm front that lays along a line from Sidney to Douglas. are still on the low side around.
Otherwise, it will be another beautiful day, a little warmer than yesterday with high temperatures in the mid 80s to near 90 in northeast NE, generally edging a little above normal. It will be even a little warmer Tuesday with south to southwest surface winds, which help to push temperatures into the upper 80s to lower 90s over a more widespread area.
The return of warm to hot temperatures are likely for the region's interior this Monday afternoon before temperatures nudge cooler for the remainder of the week. The typical marine influence will maintain cooler temperatures and cloudier conditions near the coast through the week with the potential for coastal drizzle by mid/late week.
The drying trend will continue through the short term as high pressure regains control of the Great Basin later today. Similar conditions are expected on Tuesday with another round of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain. A warming trend will ensue with the building of the ridge overhead with daytime highs sitting near to a few degrees above normal for most sites today and tomorrow.
The clouds should break up by mid-morning, but a broad fetch of cirrostratus (attendant with several weak ripples in the 300-mb flow) currently cresting the upstream upper tropospheric ridge axis in North Dakota spill southeastward and dull the afternoon sun. The high clouds linger into the overnight hours before departing Tuesday morning.
A ridge aloft continues over the forecast area through Tuesday. Northwest flow will prevail early with a blocking ridge in place.
926 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022 An upper level trough will exit the Ohio Valley later today with drier northwest flow found in its wake.
H500 low slowly rotating its way eastward across the Great Lakes this morning with a trailing trough axis extending southward toward the SE US. With mid-level ridging in place across the GoM, persistent zonal to slightly NW flow remains sandwiched along the Southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley.
partly cloudy skies and warmer temperatures are possible north of the boundary.
Relatively quiet weather pattern continues through the week as high pressure remains over the Silver State.
648 AM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022 Surface ridging firmly in place over the northern and central plains this morning. Temperatures will be a near repeat of yesterday with highs in the lower to middle 80s.
Temperatures will be warmer but remain a bit below below normal during the work week.
619 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022 Showers and storms continue ahead of a cold front today. Drier and warmer conditions are then expected for the remainder of the work week, although isolated storms possible at times. A mid-level wave embedded in broader cyclonic flow overhead will provide the impetus to drive a weak cold front across the area this afternoon into this evening providing a focus for developing of additional showers and storms. Overall drier on Tuesday, although a few light showers/isold storms may linger across the far north and east under the influence of upper trough.
612 AM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022 (Now through Tuesday) A mid-level ridge will remain in place over Deep South Texas as a midlevel trough swings into the Southern Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley today into Tuesday. With this said, as the trough continues to dig into Texas an associated cold front begins to sag into central Texas that could introduce a low chance of POPs in extreme northwestern portions of the CWA Tuesday afternoon but maintaining chances to less than 15 percent. Temperatures will remain just below normal for today and a few degrees warmer for Tuesday with heat index values in the 103-108 degree range both days.
High pressure continues to encroach on the region today, with high temperatures in the 90s being the result. Tuesday, temperatures remain generally in the 90s, as high pressure remains over the region. The region will remain under the influence of a high pressure system Tuesday night through next Monday.
A cold front that is currently over southern portions of Canada will drop down into the region later this evening. The cold front initially will stall out over the far northern portion of the CWA Tuesday morning.
1028 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022 This morning's KKEY sounding reported a continued trend of falling heights above 850 mb hinting at the retreat of an Atlantic ridge to the east of mainland Florida. As a result, winds will continue to slacken as the Keys finds itself in a pseudo col region between the receding ridge and an established ridge located over the Gulf coast. From synopsis, high pressure over the western North Atlantic will gradually shift eastward today through Tuesday, with gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes across the Keys waters today and tonight becoming light to gentle on Tuesday. In 1852, a Hurricane moved northwest through the Straits south of the Lower Keys.
The upper ridge will remain in place over the western states through about mid week, centered over the Great Basin.
324 AM MDT Mon Aug 22 2022 The upper ridge that has dominated the western CONUS the past several days is breaking down. A series of waves are pushing across the top of the ridge, which will bring a shift in the overall pattern we've been seeing. An upper low will slide into the Pac NW today, then stall out for much of this week.
Webb /ISSUED 511 AM MDT Mon Aug 22 2022/ Today is finally the day of one more hot afternoon high temperatures as our upper level ridge weakens and an upper level low develops over the Pacific NW. Today we expect scattered showers and thunderstorms across our area as a surface cold front moves through tonight.
210 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022 (Issued 210 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022) Tonight through Tuesday night: High pressure will keep fair weather conditions in place over the next few days.
Low-level ascent atop an east-west warm front should allow for additional showers and thunderstorms to develop, generally east and south of the DFW metroplex through this evening. Scattered thunderstorms are also expected along the trailing cold front across portions of central Texas by early evening.
1220 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022 (Today through Tuesday afternoon) A cold front is moving through this morning, switching winds out of the north and bringing cooler temperatures to the region. On Tuesday, we begin a slow warming and drying trend as a upper ridge builds across western CONUS and we return to northwest flow aloft.
1239 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022 Surface ridging firmly in place over the northern and central plains this morning. Temperatures will be a near repeat of yesterday with highs in the lower to middle 80s.
Highs climb into the lower 80s with warming H8 level.
This is generally owing to an upper level low churning over Hudson Bay while upper ridging persists across the Intermountain West. At the surface, a weak cold front is slowly drifting southward out of southern Canada. This, in conjunction with the weak cold front may be enough to force some showers or weak thunderstorms across the northern FA late this afternoon into the evening hours. Moving into Tuesday, the cold front is expected to be stalled generally over the central CWA.
Somewhat stronger systems toward the end of the week present more widespread precipitation potential, along with slightly cooler temperatures. The heart of the main upper ridge that covers much of the Western US retreats slightly toward the Desert Southwest. Nebraska has enough influence from the ridge to keep summertime conditions around, especially with persistent south/southwest flow at H85. For max temps, the guidance envelope is fairly small and centered around the lower/mid 90s. Tuesday night lows should be similar to tonight's, perhaps a degree or two cooler in the wake of thunderstorms.
Temperatures will be warmer but remain a bit below below normal during the work week. 12z 500 mb analysis and water vapor imagery showed weak upper level trofiness SE of the forecast area extending from southern NM SW to central Sonora MX. The steering flow today will be N/NE with storms developing over the higher terrain east and south of Tucson and propagating to the S/SW.
Slowly moving upper low will continue its eastward progression through the overnight hours. Another round of early morning patchy fog is possible with the lowest visibilities in areas that saw the higher end of rain totals from the weekend storms. Surface ridging builds over the area on Tuesday to keep conditions dry as high temperatures rise into the lower 80s.
338 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022 As low pressure moves off to the east tonight, high pressure will begin to build into the region from the west.
A backdoor cold front will come into the area tomorrow afternoon, and while not much of a wind surge is expected with it, coming in behind it will be cooler temperatures that will stick around for much of the week.
238 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022 High pressure over Iowa will drift southeast into Illinois over the next 24 hours.
(Through Tonight) Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are developing on the north side of the low near the ArkLaTex, primarily affecting parts of southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. Temperature-wise, most locations should see temperatures near last night's values and perhaps a couple of degrees cooler in parts of southeast Oklahoma.
) Storms today in the mtns bringing locally heavy rains (and a funnel cloud) to the high country, with heaviest rains likely east slopes of San Juans/La Garitas, and wester SLV floor. ) Drying out tomorrow over the high country with less storms. Main concern today will showers and storms over the high terrain. We will be drying out somewhat over the higher terrain and warming up 2-4 degrees over the entire fcst area.
For the remainder of today and tonight, an extensive field of low clouds with saturated depths of 4-6k feet thick will gradually dry out as surface ridging continues to deepen on drier northerly flows. Tuesday continues to pan out drier area wide save for a few light showers grazing the Low Rolling Plains.
/issued 1117 AM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022/ A very slow-moving cold front is draped across the Mid-South this morning, running roughly along the I-40 corridor. A weak cold front stretches across northern parts of the Mid-South this morning with low clouds and some patchy fog across the area. Temps are in the lower 70s.
An upper trough was supporting an area of showers and thunderstorms across northeast Oregon. As the trough moves eastward, showers and thunderstorms will develop across the West Central Mountains and from the Western Magic Valley south to the Nevada border this afternoon. The lower atmosphere is dry, so the thunderstorms will be capable of producing gusty outflow winds to around 50 mph.
The region is in the base of a 500 mb trough with eastward moving short wave energy passing just to the north.
Meanwhile, towering Cu continue to stream across the Sunshine State from the east/southeast as mid-lo high pressure ridges over the area. Compared to yesterday, temperatures aloft are a few degrees warmer, which should limit any hail from making it down. On Tuesday, high pressure begins to move out while upper level trough slides into the Eastern Seaboard and associated front tries to move south. In terms of temperatures, highs in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s.
1223 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022 (Now through Tuesday) A mid-level ridge will remain in place over Deep South Texas as a midlevel trough swings into the Southern Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley today into Tuesday. With this said, as the trough continues to dig into Texas an associated cold front begins to sag into central Texas that could introduce a low chance of POPs in extreme northwestern portions of the CWA Tuesday afternoon but maintaining chances to less than 15 percent. Temperatures will remain just below normal for today and a few degrees warmer for Tuesday with heat index values in the 103-108 degree range both days.
Quiet morning across central and northern Arizona as high pressure builds across the region. Expect a slight downward trend in monsoonal activity today and tomorrow due to high pressure moving over the area and limiting moisture advection.
Overall, the forecast is on track with the weak cold front moving over the area today with clearing behind it and lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms holding on along the mountains. As high pressure builds in, winds turn calm, and residual moisture at the surface, all TAF sites have the possibility of seeing fog in the morning. Discussion: The axis of the upper trough over the region will shift to our east during the period. A weak cold front will push through today and then be off to our south/east tonight.
/ISSUED 511 AM MDT Mon Aug 22 2022/ Today is finally the day of one more hot afternoon high temperatures as our upper level ridge weakens and an upper level low develops over the Pacific NW. Today we expect scattered showers and thunderstorms across our area as a surface cold front moves through tonight.
Increased clouds overnight and a strengthening nocturnal inversion via mid level WAA will keep overnight lows on the warmer side in the 60s. Prolonged WAA will make for a warmer day Tuesday.
1006 AM MDT Mon Aug 22 2022 The upper ridge that has dominated the western CONUS the past several days is breaking down. A series of waves are pushing across the top of the ridge, which will bring a shift in the overall pattern we've been seeing. An upper low will slide into the Pac NW today, then stall out for much of this week.
202 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022 High pressure remains over the region, with a diurnal cumulus field found over the CWA. Highs in the low 80s are expected.
1117 AM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022 A very slow-moving cold front is draped across the Mid-South this morning, running roughly along the I-40 corridor. A weak cold front stretches across northern parts of the Mid-South this morning with low clouds and some patchy fog across the area. Temps are in the lower 70s.
For today, can expect dry weather conditions, with afternoon highs remaining in the 80s and overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.
Broad cyclonic flow currently envelops the eastern half of the conus, downstream of lower amplitude ridging over the west.
117 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022 Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue affect the region through tonight as a low pressure system moves slowly northeast across the region. The flow aloft will become northwesterly behind the low on Tuesday, but showers and thunderstorms will remain likely toward Central NY, while lower chances for precipitation will be found over Western NY.
An upper low is not too far east of the area. Still can't rule out an isolated shower in the far eastern forecast area this afternoon with influence from the slowly exiting upper low, but for now expected coverage remains too low to mention at this time. High pressure will continue to provide quiet weather through the remainder of the short term period. Highs will be seasonable in the lower 80s on Tuesday.
Temperatures will fall back into the lower to mid 60s tonight given the expected light winds and clear skies. This pattern will persist Tuesday with only slightly warmer afternoon readings in the lower 90s. A tranquil weather pattern will persist this week, with upper level ridging over the Rockies and high plains, and not much in the way of westerlies across the central or northern Rockies to induce strong south winds.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler with highs in the low 80s north to low 90s southwest.
Mts occasionally obscd in sct to nmrs showers and tstms to develop over the wrn and nrn high terrain by 19Z then progress into the lower elevations.
This convection will diminish this eve with trough progress and loss of sfc warmth. Dry conditions are then forecast the remainder of the period as high pressure transitions across the region.
Area remains under the influence of ridging between troughing over both coasts and even extending into the southeast. At the sfc, high pressure remains the main driver across the area, currently centered mainly over IA. Models are in good agreement showing continued weak upper level flow in place across the region, but do start to show signs of the ridging starting to break down, as the system currently over the Pac NW pushing further inland. Not looking at a big change in temperatures for tomorrow, the forecast overall is a couple degrees warmer, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s for most spots. Aloft, main question lies with the evolution of that disturbance sliding east across the US/Can border, and the timing of the ridge breaking down.
Very moist airmass remains in place across the region with tail end of a broad trough lingering across the area. Upper level troughing will remain in place in between ridging over the western US and the western Atlantic ridge through much of the work week.
Through the rest of the day, most of the rain is forecast to remain south of the area along and south of the main surface front and low pressure center as it tracks across north Texas.
The receding of the Atlantic ridge over mainland Florida will keep winds to gentle to moderate breezes for the rest of the week. From synopsis, high pressure over the western North Atlantic will gradually shift eastward tonight through Tuesday, with gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes across the Keys waters tonight becoming light to gentle on Tuesday. Water vapor imagery highlights an upper level low across the Bahamas, which will decrease static stability overnight. In 1852, a Hurricane moved northwest through the Straits south of the Lower Keys.