Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
403 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015 CURRENTLY - AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE TROUGH IS ALIGNED OVER THE ROCKIES. WITH DEEP LAYERED RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS FLORIDA. FORECAST - THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE ROCKIES AND MEXICO. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY. DEEP LAYER RIDGING IN PLACE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES SLIGHT AT BEST FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER HIGH EMERGING EASTWARD OFF OF NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THE HIGHEST WINDS TO OCCUR OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
403 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH. WHERE WINDS HAVE GONE CALM TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH COOLER THAN THE REST OF THE AREA.
STILL LOOKING AT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/TX DURING THE DAY TODAY. STRENGTHENING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT THE STRONGEST MOISTURE TO RIDE UP ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND RIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY. IT IS ALSO PULLING IN SOUTHERLY/SW WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO PULL IN THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN KY. WHICH IS AROUND THE TIME OF SOME OF THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS DEPICTED OVER THE EXTREME WRN CWA AND IN A COUPLE OF SW-NE BANDS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 165 CORRIDOR AND FURTHER EAST FROM THE N END OF THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN SW TO ERN CAMERON PARISH. LATEST UA ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS UPR TROF BECOMING STALLED OVER THE SRN PLAINS. SERVING AS A LOW LVL FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS ADDITIONAL IMPULSES EMANATE FM THE NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW WEST OF THE AREA.
145 AM PDT TUE MAR 10 2015 THE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION TODAY. AND THE COMBINATION OF THE RIDGE AND SOUTHEAST WIND /DOWNSLOPE EFFECT/ WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70F IN LOWER VALLEYS /INLUDING THE TREASURE VALLEY/ THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS IN SOUTHEAST OREGON.
1238 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015 330 PM CDT A WARM FRONT STATIONED OVER CENTRAL IL WILL CREEP INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT ON A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE MIDWEST. THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING HIGHER DEWPOINT TEMPS NORTHWARD TO AROUND A DEKALB TO CHICAGO LINE WHICH WILL HELP ERODE SOME OF THE SNOW PACK. EXPECTING STRATUS WITH THE WARM FRONT AS WELL. DESPITE LOW CLOUDS WITH THE WARM FRONT STALLING OVER THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 50S DUE TO A RIDGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT SPREADING OVER THE AREA. MRC 330 PM CDT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS WISCONSIN. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE.
THE WARMER TEMPS AND SNOW PACK HAVE COMBINED TO HELP GENERATE A LOW STRATUS DECK THAT IS STREAMING NORTH OUT OF ILLINOIS WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR. SHOULD WORK TO ERODE THE LOW CLOUDS. A WEAK SFC TROF DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING IN OVERNIGHT. AND THE COOLER REGIME WILL BE MOST NOTICEABLE IN THE EASTERN CWA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN SHIFT EAST TOMORROW.
WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH BELOW FREEZING EVEN IN AREAS WITH SNOW COVER. TUESDAY SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER THAN TODAY.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DOES SHOW TEMPS SHOULD STAY AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING OF THE LIQUID ON COLDER SURFACES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST.
The overnight analysis reveals a large upper trough stretching from the middle of the country southward into Mexico with broad deep layer southerly flow ahead of it. Our local area remains on the western extent of surface and upper ridging with southerly flow and low level moisture gradually increasing. A warm airmass is in place and with a few breaks in the clouds expected this afternoon, expect highs to reach the lower 80s across most of the area away from the beaches with even a few mid 80s possible. The beaches will be a little cooler thanks to onshore flow with cooler shelf waters.
217 AM PDT TUE MAR 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING LIGHT RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
312 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE CANADIAN LOW WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
416 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015 LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE LOW LOCATED OVER S AR WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD ALONG THE SOUTHERN ALABAMA COAST AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD INTO TX. AS THE LOW LIFTS N/NE THIS MORNING WE WILL ENTER THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM AND SEE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S BY THE NOON HOUR. A FEW ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO NW ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT THIS EVENING AND WILL BISECT THE AREA FROM THE SW TO NE.
401 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015 RATHER STRONG S/W TROF WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD FROM MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO TODAY/TONIGHT. BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A 60 DEGREE READING IN PARTS OF PINE/BURNETT COUNTIES UNDERNEATH CENTER OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND WHERE SNOW COVER IS ALREADY NEARLY GONE. CURRENT SURFACE OBS SUGGEST THAT COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE A TAD BEHIND THE SCHEDULE LAID OUT BY THE SHORT TERM MODELS. WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS AGAIN OUT WEST.
436 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AND DRY OUT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
302 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015 EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
549 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE CANADIAN LOW WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
416 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST AND OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST EARLY TODAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE.
Storm moves through tonight through late Wednesday bringing some light precipitation and cooler temperatures.
1203 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015 AVIATION DISCUSSION WIDESPREAD RAINS CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST OFF TO OUR WEST. DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S WILL PUSH NORTHWARD OVER ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. SHOWERS COULD PULL BACK TO THE WEST TOMORROW AS THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
138 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
633 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AND DRY OUT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
630 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM IS PROJECTED TO SHUNT THE WHOLE SCENARIO EASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWER ALBEDO IN THE FORESTED AREAS WILL AID IN WARMING/MIXING. DOWNWIND FROM LAKE MI TEMPS WILL AGAIN REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S FROM THE GARDEN PENINSULA EASTWARD. BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY.
110 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXIT EAST TODAY. THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING.
320 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM IS PROJECTED TO SHUNT THE WHOLE SCENARIO EASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY.
428 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE CALIFORNIA/S WEATHER FOR ONE MORE DAY. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP THE VALLEY DRY,,,BUT THE SREF AND GFS ENSEMBLES BRING MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT LEAST AS FAR SOUTH AS MERCED COUNTY.
619 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
BROAD SLY FLOW CONTINUES IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE WHERE THEY ARE NOW. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY RESULT PATCHY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN ATLC AND EXTENDS ACROSS NRN FL.
1101 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015 FINE EARLY SPRING WEATHER IS IN STORE THROUGH TUESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
Northwest of the Illinois river, where rain chances are lowest and cloud cover the thinnest, some highs in the lower 60s are not out of the question. Deep trof over the desert SW and Southern Plains remains the driving force for the weather in the Midwest through the week. Same upper level trof is the initiation of a couple of waves that start surface systems over the Gulf Coast that move into the Ohio River Valley and skirt the Midwest with some precip chances. After todays precipitation, the trof stays in place, breaking the flow across the CONUS into the warmer southerly airmass. Starting again as a wave out of the deep western trof, skirting the coast and into the Ohio River Valley.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION FLATTENS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. PATTERN SUGGESTS DRY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID 30S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE LOWER DEGREE OF INSOLATION PROVIDING A DEFINITIVE COUNTER TO THE ONGOING WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION. BEFORE A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DROPS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE THROUGH OR NEARLY THROUGH THE AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK GRADIENT FLOW WITHIN COOL HIGH PRESSURE REGIME WILL SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE CALIFORNIA/S WEATHER FOR ONE MORE DAY. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP THE VALLEY DRY.
214 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2015 18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH 1. 5 PVU SURFACE INDICATING ANOTHER TROUGH SLIDING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. BIAS CORRECTED FIELDS THOUGH DO SUPPORT A FEW READINGS IN THE LOW 70S SO PLAN TO KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS VALUES. THIS EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE COUNTRY.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SOME OF THE HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE MOVED INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT.
336 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015 WARM FRONT BRINGS RAIN TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES MIDWEEK. FOLLOWED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE COPIOUS ACCUMULATIONS OF RAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EXTREME VA COUNTIES EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
330 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST AND OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST EARLY TODAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.
438 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2015 This morning have an upper trough extending down from NE. Models develop a closed low in the center of the trough over the Red River on Wednesday. Another upper trough will move off the West Coast later in the week and merge with this trough over the Central Plains. Temperatures will be warmer today and back into the 60s. Not much change for Wednesday maybe a couple of degrees warmer Wednesday.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DESPITE A WIND SHIFT TO WESTERLY (DOWNSLOPING). WHICH SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. AND THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN DRY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW AND AND COAST WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
1114 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2015 18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH 1. 5 PVU SURFACE INDICATING ANOTHER TROUGH SLIDING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. BIAS CORRECTED FIELDS THOUGH DO SUPPORT A FEW READINGS IN THE LOW 70S SO PLAN TO KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS VALUES. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW H5/H7 RIDGE FLUCTUATING FROM THE WEST COAST ON INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ROCKIES. WILL ALLOW FOR THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE. RIDGE AXIS WILL NOSE OUT OVER THE PLAINS REGION FOR POTENTIALLY THE WARMEST PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW JUST WEST OF THE BIG BEND. MODELS TODAY ARE SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST WITH THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND 850MB CONVERGENT BOUNDARY THAT DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DRY AND WARMER ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 60S AND EVEN SOME LOW 70S ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA.
1128 PM MDT SUN MAR 8 2015 06Z TAF CYCLE WEAKENING UPPER LOW SOUTHWEST OF KEPZ AND ASSOCIATED TROF STRETCHED OVER NM WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW APPROACHES THE STATE.
THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME WILL ABATE AND GO VARIABLE (5 MPH) THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING RIDGE TO SHIFT EASTWARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER LEVEL AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH.
430 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
358 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT BRINGS RAIN TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BY MIDWEEK. FOLLOWED BY A LOW PRESSURE LATE WEEK. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL TODAY WITH RELAXED WINDS AND DRY WEATHER. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO INCREASE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MOST IF NOT ALL OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS OUR TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.
344 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNG WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT.
318 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL MOVE EAST BY DAWN OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE LOW DEVELOPING IN TX/LA. TUESDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST EVENTUALLY REACHING THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE LOW.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE SLIDING WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTH TODAY BRINGING RAIN TO PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. THE WIND WILL TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER THAN AHEAD OF IT AND EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS THAN LAST NIGHT WITH ABOUT THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ACTUALLY EXPECTING LOWS THAT REMAIN ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. THE TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB WILL ACTUALLY WARM SLIGHTLY AND THIS WARMER AIR SHOULD MIX TO THE SFC MAKING FOR A SUNNY AND CONTINUED WARM DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
247 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. THE DRY SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM OFF THE COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER EASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS A SMALL RAIN CHANCE TONIGHT. WE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON THE RECENT BIAS AND RELATIVELY WARM START. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONIGHT BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. THE MODELS KEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER RIDGING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST CHANGING LITTLE. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE. USED THE WARMER LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.
617 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. THE DRY SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM OFF THE COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER EASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS A SMALL RAIN CHANCE TONIGHT. WE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON THE RECENT BIAS AND RELATIVELY WARM START. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONIGHT BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. THE MODELS KEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER RIDGING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST CHANGING LITTLE. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE. USED THE WARMER LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.
314 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS UPPER DISTURBANCE AND PRODUCE A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL SPREAD SOME RAIN ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO ON TUESDAY. NONE OF WHICH SHOULD CAUSE ANY ISSUES GIVEN WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ONGOING WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE TROUGH. AND WENT TOWARDS WARMER GFS MOS AND OLDER SREF MEANS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AS DROPOFF SHOULD BE LIMITED BY DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF A DISTURBANCE EMERGING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
The overnight analysis reveals a large upper trough digging into Mexico with weak surface ridging over the local area. As we move through today, surface ridging will slide eastward slightly with winds veering to a more southeasterly direction.
UPPER LVL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES SENDING IMPULSES OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS BORDER AS DEEP PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE REGION. A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED JUST EAST OF THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION. AS MID LVL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST OF THE REGION RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. THE WEAK WARM FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST WILL EDGE INLAND DURING THE MORNING. KEPT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER ALONG THE COAST THAN NORMALLY WOULD WITH SUCH A WET AND CLOUDY PATTERN. KEEPING LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S AGAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS.
413 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015 AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. AHEAD OF THE LOW. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT COOLER AT AREA BEACHES DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND EARLY ONSET OF ATLC SEA BREEZE. AS WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD AND WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPS INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S INLAND. COASTAL LOCATIONS SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEG COOLER FROM ONSHORE FLOW.
LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. FOR NOW WE PLAN ON CARRYING FLURRIES OR SPOTTY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. IF FREEZING DRIZZLE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT.
325 AM PDT MON MAR 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
221 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION, BUT BRING COOLER AIR WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WARM UP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE M20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND M30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION, BUT PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IN WINDS GENERALLY 5KTS OR LESS. EXPECT RESIDUAL RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND MAIN ENERGY OF THE NORTHERN SYSTEM BEING FAR TO THE NORTH TO KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY. THIS NORTHERLY SYSTEM TRACKING OVER JAMES BAY WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION.
406 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2015 LAST EVENING'S SNOW EVENT THAT MODELS PREDICTED FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SUMMIT AND PARK COUNTIES NEVER REALLY MATERIALIZED. HIGH TEMPS ON THE PLAINS WOULD PROBABLY BE A SHADE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. INSTEAD TODAY/S HIGHS SHOULD BE 1-3C WARMER. HIGH COUNTRY TEMPS ALSO A DEG OR TWO WARMER TODAY. WHEREAS MIN TEMPS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY ARE EXPECTED TO RETREAT A DEG OR TWO WITH A CLEAR DRY ATMOSPHERE.
310 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2015 We're watching moisture transport across Oklahoma and Arkansas this morning in advance of a quasi-cutoff trough of low pressure. Highs on will range from the lower 50s over the eastern Ozarks, to the middle 60s across the Osage Plains.
534 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS UPPER DISTURBANCE AND PRODUCE A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL SPREAD SOME RAIN ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO ON TUESDAY. AND WENT TOWARDS WARMER GFS MOS AND OLDER SREF MEANS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AS DROPOFF SHOULD BE LIMITED BY DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF A DISTURBANCE EMERGING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
400 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015 A LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MIGRATING EASTWARD FROM THE SW CONUS AND MEXICO WILL BE OUR MAIN INFLUENCE DURING THE PERIOD. THE ENTIRE SETUP WILL BE AIDED BY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH.