Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Lowering heights associated with an upper low over the PacNW/NorCal allowed for the marine layer to deepen by approximately 500 feet overnight. A broad high pressure ridge is forecast to backbuild from the desert southwest into the Great Basin and portions of California over the coming weekend.
323 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017 At 3 PM, cyclonic flow associated with a low pressure area over Northern Lower Michigan continued produce partly to mostly cloudy skies across the Upper Mississippi Valley.
428 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Rain chances will continue, and escalate into Friday as a cold front slides toward the Upper Ohio Valley Region. Upper-level low will push southeast through the day, with the surface cold front dragging through in the afternoon. Nevertheless, SPC has outlined the Ridges in a day 2 Slight Risk. High pressure will build in behind the cold front, bringing a drying trend heading into the weekend. An approaching trough will return low shower/storm chances for Mon before a large upper high drifts E from the Plains and Midwest.
8 inches across the east where ridging has a bit more influence. Expect partly cloudy skies overnight with low temperatures generally in the low 70s.
For Fri through Mon an upper level ridge will remain over the area and centered mostly over UT. Will go with high pcpn chances acrs the mtn areas and generally scattered coverage over the lower elevations. Tue and Wed the upper level ridge is expected to be centered to the east of CO, allowing a plume of monsoon mstr to work its way into western CO on the back side of the ridge. GOES-16 visible imagery just before Noon reveals widespread TCU already developing over the high terrain, including a few thunderstorms.
1249 PM MDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Monsoonal moisture should be cut off from the CWA over the next few days as the upper high strengthens some over Wyoming today through Friday.
645 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Muggy air will be displaced by a cold front which will pass through during the day and evening on Friday. The cold front nears the nrn tier before sunrise, but takes quite a bit of time to cross the CWA.
Upper level ridging continues to build over the region for hot and dry conditions.
Current radar and satellite observations are showing storms developing off the high terrain of CO/NM in- conjunction with obs showing a surface convergence zone just northwest of Cimarron County, OK. Going from Friday into the weekend, a cold front will move into our northern areas before stalling out.
A strong U/L ridge will build over the Florida peninsula tomorrow with increasing large scale subsidence developing over the region. Outside of well defined surface features and/or tropical cyclones, upper- level features tend to be subtle this time of year, with mid- level ridging the primary player when it comes to afternoon storm coverage. Deep-layered ridging north of the state Friday night will begin to settle south over the peninsula this weekend. Moisture will be lowest under the ridge axis and more plentiful to the north and south.
231 PM PDT Thu Jul 13 2017 High pressure over the Great Basin will bring a continuation of above normal temperatures to the district. An influx of monsoonal moisture this weekend could increase the chance of thunderstorms over the higher terrain. A strong ridge of high pressure continues to be centered over the Four Corners region and covers much of the central and western US. The ridge will edge westward the next few days with temperature edging upward a few degrees.
207 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Rain chances will continue, and escalate into Friday as a cold front slides toward the Upper Ohio Valley Region. Elsewhere, remnant cloud cover from the morning trough is suppressing temperatures and resultant instability. Upper-level low will push southeast through the day, with the surface cold front dragging through in the afternoon. Nevertheless, SPC has outlined the Ridges in a day 2 Slight Risk. High pressure will build in behind the cold front, bringing a drying trend heading into the weekend. An approaching trough will return low shower/storm chances for Mon before a large upper high drifts E from the Plains and Midwest.
A ridge aloft builds across the western U. At the surface, an area of high pressure sits over the Plains during the weekend.
208 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017 A cold front was slowly working its way south across Missouri this afternoon. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 7pm this evening as the cold front will be slow in pushing the summertime high to the west until later tonight into the overnight hours. Ample moisture will be available for storm development with dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s. Temperatures Friday will be cooler as the result of the increased cloud cover and rain across the region.
We also expect much more in the way of sunshine and thus a warmer day with highs back into the mid and upper 80s.
For today, mid and upper level ridge to build in even further by the afternoon hours with heights building to 595dm across east central GA. Given lack of clouds and precip today, went on the higher side of guidance with mid 90s likely for most of central GA. Some enhanced deep layer moisture arrives over western portions late in the day to allow for higher pops than today but remaining in the low to mid range chance category. Deese Model solutions continue to delay the onset of weekend cold front into the state.
The effective effective warm front is still expected to be the focus for shower and thunderstorm development later this afternoon and tonight, possibly a little further south than the going forecast given the position of the outflow boundary. Expect storms to continue through the evening and overnight hours as wave slides southeast on the edge of the upper high across eastern Kansas and theta advection into east central Kansas will keep the potential for locally heavy rainfall through the night. Temperatures today are expected to be cooler than the last few days especially anywhere north of the frontal boundary ranging from the mid 80s north to the mid 90s south of the front.
The high pressure ridge over the western states is trying to rebuild and shift west the next couple of days.
1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017 An upper level ridge of high pressure will start to retrograde westward today and a slow moving frontal boundary will sag southward into the region by late this afternoon and evening. High temperatures will be back in the lower to middle 90s. Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Friday due to the added clouds and rain around.
High pressure in place over Fargo, ND is forecast to move south through the period. This high pressure will drive the weather in the short term forecast period. Looking at the data, the American gridded models seem to be the lowest as far as temps go. This will be dependent on the advection of drier air as the high builds south into the CWA.
Convection is developing over the mountains, Palmer Divide, and Raton Ridge. SPC continues to have a marginal risk over the plains and eastern mountains with stronger storms possible in the higher CAPE and low shear environment.
/issued 1043 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017/ Oklahoma and north Texas remain under a ridge aloft, which is providing generally clear skies (except for a few mid-clouds in the north), warm and humid conditions, and relatively light south to southwest winds. A cold front over Kansas will drift very slowly south today, and may provide a focus for storm initiation later today. We could see some storms move into northern Oklahoma late tonight associated with the upper trough pivoting southeast into Kansas, but it looks like the majority of the convection will stay northeast of the area.
/issued 328 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): Mid-level inverted trough will continue to move westward across Mexico through the period, while broad mid-level ridging builds south across the state. At the surface, broad high pressure will prevail across the Gulf of Mexico.
In the upper levels high pressure continues to consume much of the central and western CONUS. Outside of these chances, forecast continues to look dry as high pressure dominates the upper levels.
219 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017 An upper level low pressure area just south of the Big Bend will slowly move west toward western Mexico through the weekend.
Matched current temps and sky trends showing the cooler cloudy areas in the southeastern half of the FA versus the northwestern portions where temps have rebounded to near 70 already. Did go ahead and add drizzle to the area under the lower clouds east of a Wahpeton to Moorhead to Waskisk line through the rest of the morning. HRRRTL has had a good handle on the lower CIGS since yesterday and supports the updated sky cover and light precip. We get better return flow and warmer temperatures returning on Friday, especially along and west of the Red River Valley.
Otherwise, a cold front was slowly working its way southward through Central Alabama. Farther south, additional convection has develop along and south of I-85, in an area ahead of a pre-frontal trof. The passage of a cold front should result in VFR conditions through the TAF period, with possible exceptions through the remainder of the overnight.
Holding onto the highest pops over the northern portion of the forecast area where deeper moisture is in place and more in line with surface front. A ridge will shift east of the area during early to mid week turning the flow back onshore.
The lower airmass will remain on the moist side while the northwest flow aloft will bring dry air at the mid and upper levels. Temperatures slightly warmer and a slight increase in moisture will improve instability today. Upper level high pressure building over the Rocky Mountain Region will bring mostly dry and warmer weather to north central and northeastern Colorado on Monday.
A cold front will begin to cross the region Monday. A weakening slow moving cold front will remain across central portions of the forecast area today, while an upper level disturbance crosses the region. Another cold front will approach northern Maine late tonight which will keep a chance of showers across mostly northern areas overnight. High temperatures today will range from the lower to mid 70s north, to the upper 70s to around 80 interior Downeast with mid to upper 70s along the Downeast coast. Low temperatures tonight will range from around 50 to the lower 50s north, to the mid 50s Downeast. A cold front is expected to approach from the northwest Monday then become stationary across the region. Low pressure will develop and move northeast along the front later in the day Monday.
The cold front is currently located along the I-85 corridor and continues to sink slowly southward. Behind the front dew points are beginning to fall into the low to mid 60s. A seasonably deep mid and upper-level trough is currently digging southward across the eastern US, while a weakening TUTT low (upper low) is located over the western Gulf. Highs will be in the low 80s across the north due to weak cold air advection and mid-level cloudcover, and in the mid to upper 80s southeast. Skies should clear from north to south tonight as high pressure moves in from the north. With dew points in the 50s and light northerly winds, very refreshing low temperatures for late June will occur with 50s in the typically cooler northern locations and low to mid 60s elsewhere.
For today, temperatures should be a bit warmer than yesterday with readings in the low to mid 80s.
Surface analysis reveals broad area of Canadian high pressure beginning to nose its way down into the northern Plains, with its influence being felt across much of the central and eastern CONUS. Another surge of invigorating, crisp Canadian air will keep temperatures even cooler for Monday, with afternoon highs only reaching the mid to upper 70s for many locations.
An approaching Pacific trough brings increasing cloud cover and briefly hotter temperatures for Sunday into Monday. Today will see the upper level ridge break down and mid level moisture associated with a pacific trough intrude into the Great Basin. On Monday the bulk of the trough will move through Nevada bringing a decent amount of mid level moisture that will cause high based thunderstorms across the Northern and eastern Portions of the CWA.
Still the potential for patchy frost across portions of the southwest and central where dewpoints remain in the low to mid 30s. Currently, the small but potent upper low that moved through our area early this morning was near the MN/WI border. This weaker cold front is forecast to enter northern ND late tonight and sweep southeast across the state Sunday morning.
652 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 A cold front stalls over the Carolinas today into Monday. High pressure builds into the area through midweek. Broad trough aloft from the Midwest through the OH Valley into the eastern CONUS will control the wx today. Upper trough will drop across the Great Lakes through Mon. This feature will push the secondary cold front toward the local area Mon ,prmomg. Even cooler behind the secondary front. Cold front will remain slow to settle SE through SE VA-NE NC today. A cold front stalls just south of the waters late this morning into this afternoon. Another cold front crosses the region Mon night, but again CAA is weak following the front so expect sub-SCA conditions to continue.
Otherwise, another beautiful day lies in store for the area with even less humid conditions expected this afternoon as drier air settles over the region following the passage of a secondary cold front this morning. This will ensure the continuation of northwest winds with afternoon highs topping out in the middle to upper 70s, a few degrees cooler than yesterday due to the slightly cooler airmass. Cold front to pass through the region Monday night as high pressure builds in from the north.
236 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 Convection finally on the increase across northeast New Mexico and the Panhandle as a short wave trough and associated modest jet streak begin to act on the low to mid level moisture in place across the southern High Plains.
352 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 (Today and Tonight) An upper level ridge will remain centered over the Desert Southwest today and tonight, keeping West Central Texas in northwest flow aloft.
/Today through Tonight/ Aloft a large upper low will shift from Wisconsin into Michigan by tonight.
The unseasonably cold airmass in place throughout the region will remain through Sunday, as steering winds aloft continue to direct cool/dry high pressure southeastward out of Canada. A 1026mb high pressure will move into the Dakotas early Monday morning allowing for favorable radiational conditions yet again.
314 AM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017 An approaching area of low pressure off the California coast will cause the ridge axis to become more oriented from north to south as opposed to northwest to southeast. By Monday, the low pressure will become a low amplitude trough and will continue shifting the ridge axis east eventually causing our windflow to become more zonal in nature. A bit more convective build up is possible over the higher terrain on Monday but any precipitation looks to be very minimal in nature with the San Juans again favored.
Cold front extends across Central into Western Texas with another surface boundary near the Coastal Plains to the Middle Rio Grande Valley. Showers and thunderstorms have been ongoing to our south along the surface boundary while have been developing along the cold front. The mid level shear axis shifts off to the west on Monday, replaced by a weak mid level trough dropping southeast in the northwesterly flow aloft while the TUTT low drifts northeast. This new trough along with the new surface boundaries and heating will allow showers and thunderstorms to expand in coverage on Monday.
247 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 An amplified upper air pattern featuring a broad longwave trough covering the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS will guarantee northwest flow aloft and cooler than normal temperatures through the early part of the work week.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 60 83 59 / 10 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 58 80 57 / 10 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 82 57 80 56 / 10 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 79 53 77 53 / 0 0 10 10.
339 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 Broad trough at 500 mb dominates the CONUS aloft. with a ridge axis all the way over on the Pacific Coast. Northwesterly winds as high pressure continues to spread over the Plains to the west. The northwesterly flow breaks down as the 850mb thermal ridge shifts to the east.
Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than Sunday.
Otherwise, rain is about done as the outlook is for high pressure to win out bolstering the frontal boudary to move farther S and W for a few days.
The highest rain chances today will be in the vicinity of the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains where orographics will give added lift. PoPs increase tonight and tomorrow as a weak upper trough moves southeast out of New Mexico.
651 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 A cold front stalls over the Carolinas today into Monday. High pressure builds into the area through midweek. Broad trough aloft from the Midwest through the OH Valley into the eastern CONUS will control the wx today. Upper trough will drop across the Great Lakes through Mon. This feature will push the secondary cold front toward the local area Mon ,prmomg. Even cooler behind the secondary front. Cold front will remain slow to settle SE through SE VA-NE NC today. A cold front stalls just south of the waters late this morning into this afternoon. Another cold front crosses the region Mon night, but again CAA is weak following the front so expect sub-SCA conditions to continue.
Convective temps on model soundings are start in the 50s and only rise to the low 60s by noon. After a cool start on Monday with lows in the 40s from ideal radiative cooling environment with high pressure to the west and clear skies, the full sun will allow temps to rise into the 70s for most locations. These south winds will set the stage ahead of a broad area of developing low pressure as heat and moisture return to the northern plains with temps in the 80s and dew points in the 60s.
On Monday, an upper level trough swinging through the Great Lakes will bring a chance of showers thunderstorms late Monday afternoon into Monday night. High pressure centered over the nrn Great Plains will nose in to the region from the west today. With mostly clear skies, temperatures will cool into the lower and mid 50s. Monday into Monday night a H5 s/w will swing through the base of the upper trof over the Great Lakes.
While modest southerly return flow will begin today, the general cool/dry/stable boundary layer associated with this anticyclone will be in control for one more day.
Have placed the highest pops over far northern Minnesota today, shifting to mainly the tip of the Arrowhead tonight. Guidance is once again depicting very cool temperatures for today as they were yesterday, but yesterday's highs were a few degrees warmer than guidance, and I have gone a little warmer than guidance for today. Clearing skies later tonight will allow temperatures to fall much cooler than this morning, and expect lows in the low to mid 40s.
As of 25/07Z boundary is located roughly between the Highway 190 and I-10 corridors. Moisture profiles still on the high side with LAPS and GPS-MET data as of 25/08Z indicating precipitable water values between 1. Frontal boundary will stall along the coast and hang out over the next couple of days, with drier air pivoting northeast to southwest into the region as high pressure tries to build in behind the front.
345 AM PDT Sun Jun 25 2017 Cooling expected for the entire region today with cooler but still above normal temperatures through the week. Upper ridge which brought the Norcal heat wave for the last week is finally shifting inland. Upper ridge axis currently shifting east of the CWA allowing for a stiff delta breeze this morning. Week upper troughing over the west coast will bring more cooling on Monday with daytime highs forecast to come in just a little above normal. One exception might be far northwest Shasta county which might pick up an isolated shower if the upper trough digs far enough south.
A cold front will begin to cross the region Monday. A weak cold front will slowly move across northern portions of the forecast area overnight. Sun will begin fair, but then aftn clds and eventually mid to late aftn shwrs and a few tstms will develop as an upper trof/low from SE Ont begins to apch. Our weather pattern will remain a bit unsettled as the new week begins with a shallow trough of low pressure remaining to our west as weak disturbances track out of this trough and across our area. The best chances for showers Monday will be over the higher elevation to the west.
1142 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017 High pressure will amplify over Utah and Colorado Sunday and Monday.
304 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 A cold front stalls over the Carolinas today into Monday. High pressure builds into the area through midweek. Broad trough aloft from the Midwest through the OH Valley into the eastern CONUS will control the wx today. Upper trough will drop across the Great Lakes through Mon. This feature will push the secondary cold front toward the local area Mon ,prmomg. Even cooler behind the secondary front. Cold front will remain slow to settle SE through SE VA-NE NC today. A cold front stalls just south of the waters late this morning into this afternoon. Another cold front crosses the region Mon night, but again CAA is weak following the front so expect sub-SCA conditions to continue.
Broad upper ridge help keep pattern in place thru mid week, confining any low pops to southern portions of area. Strong short waves movg across upper midwest later in week will serve to break down upper ridge and pops will increase as cooling aloft steepens lapse rates, and increased upper ridging over se states helps pump gulf moisture back into region.
Abundant sunshine, relatively light winds, and very warm temperatures (80s to low 90s in the valleys) are expected today under high pressure. Monday will be a few degrees warmer compared to today but changes are on the way later in the day.
305 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 A cold front stalls over the Carolinas today into Monday. High pressure builds into the area through midweek. Broad trough aloft from the Midwest through the OH Valley into the eastern CONUS will control the wx today. Upper trough will drop across the Great Lakes through Mon. This feature will push the secondary cold front toward the local area Mon ,prmomg. Even cooler behind the secondary front. Cold front will remain slow to settle SE through SE VA-NE NC today. A cold front stalls just south of the waters late this morning into this afternoon. Another cold front crosses the region Mon night, but again CAA is weak following the front so expect sub-SCA conditions to continue.
The low level convergence zone/focus for convective development will slowly move inland through the day.
Warm and dry conditions continue as high pressure strengthens. The ridge begins pushing east and that allows moisture to our south and west to move into eastern Idaho. This front also ushers in cooler air that will stick around for a bit.
Plentiful moisture in the 850-700mb layer and an east/southeast wind will cause high temperatures to be cooler then previously expected. Blending 850mb temperatures from the past several days and mos/2m/bias corrected grids supports readings in the low to mid 70s. Low temperatures in the low to mid 50s. Afternoon temperatures in the low 80s looks good per 850mb temperatures.
400 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 Today through Tonight: Latest satellite imagery showed a broad upper trough axis over the Central CONUS. The drier air will bring in some cooler lows with readings in the lower to middle 60s.
347 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 A cold front, currently moving through north GA will continue to slowly slip south of the CWA through the morning hours. This front will usher in much drier and cooler air. all thanks to the dry cool high pressure building in from the north.