Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
227 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022 A 500 mb low pressure currently over eastern Idaho and western Wyoming will be the main weather feature through the short term portion of the forecast. At the surface, an area of low pressure located over central SD will remain near the CWA over the next 24 to 36 hours. The low pressure will bring breezy south to southeasterly winds, along with warm temperatures for this time of year. Pcpn chances should begin increasing on Sunday, mainly Sunday night as the upper level trough slowly approaches the CWA, with some upper level support moving into the western CWA as well.
An amalgamation of mid level cloud cover isn't too far off to our north and west, however, with several low-amplitude waves skirting the northern fringes of the 500 mb ridge axis across Minnesota. A secondary weak cold front is dropping southward, towards the UP of Michigan and across Lake Huron.
(Tonight) Quiet/tranquil wx conditions prevail across the central TN Valley heading into the afternoon hrs this Sat, as high pressure remains layered from the Great Lakes southward into the Midwest/lower MS Valley states.
Two upper lows persist today across the Idaho/Wyoming border and across the Carolinas with a weak ridge between the two. Weak lee troughing in eastern Colorado gives way to breezy southerly surface winds today across the Panhandles. By tomorrow, the omega block aloft will break down as the low along the East Coast becomes absorbed into the jet stream across New England.
1202 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022 Currently, Ian and its associated upper trough are centered over the Carolinas. This system will slowly move north-northwest while prohibiting upper level flow from progressing, and leaving the middle of the country under an upper level ridge that will slowly build into the Mississippi Valley over the weekend. At the surface, the pattern is blocking high pressure in the region. This high pressure will keep clear skies and light winds in the forecast through the weekend.
254 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022 At 2 PM, eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois and far northeast Missouri remained on the southern edge of high pressure across southern Ontario. Discussion: Stagnant weather pattern continues across the area with a blocking pattern in place aloft across the region. This is resulting in persistent ridging across the southern Plains that extends northward into the Mid Missouri River Valley. Low temperatures on Sunday morning will be a little warmer with low in the mid to upper 40s. Skies will become sunny by Sunday afternoon with high temperatures once again in the upper 60s across northwest Illinois to the lower 70s west of a Independence to Macomb Illinois line.
(Today through Sunday afternoon) With a closed upper-level low pressure over the northern Rockies and the remnants of Ian across the Mid-Atlantic, our area is caught in between. Persistent ridging will dominate the short term forecast as a result. No rain is forecast with subsidence under the ridge through this weekend. Overall, the weather remains very nice across the region, though on the warmer side.
1137 AM MDT Sat Oct 1 2022 The closed upper low was centered over southeast ID. 4 AM temperatures ranged from the low 40s to low 50s. Model consensus progs the upper low center to lift north-northeast across western WY and central MT through Sunday, then slowly track east toward the western Dakotas Sunday night. High temperatures will be slightly warmer with mid 60s to mid 70s.
On the other hand, a ridge will be extending from the Texas Gulf Coast through the Plains into south-central Canada as strong upper-low will be spinning in the Intermountain region. As we head into the beginning of the work week, upper ridging continues moving east into the Lower Ohio Valley. High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will extend south keeping northeasterly surface winds over southern Indiana and central Kentucky.
Far southwestern areas will likely see the lowest additional accumulation today as relatively drier air pushes in. Highs will be cooler today as 700mb temperatures drop to around 0C this afternoon. On Sunday the low will move north over the Wyoming/Montana border. Temperatures will moderate on Sunday as the cold core of the system shifts north with the low; highs will generally be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today.
A large closed upper level low centered over eastern Montana will slowly drift eastward today as high pressure builds over the area on Sunday. It will be mostly clear across the area except in the central Idaho mountains where cumulus clouds will increase in the afternoon as moisture on the back side of the upper low rotates back into the mountains.
132 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022 Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian will bring rain showers and breezy conditions to the region today. Rain showers will continue to be intermittent throughout the evening with the support of vorticity advection of post- tropical cyclone Ian and jet interaction. Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian will decay Sunday as dry air north of the Great Lakes advances south, and the remnant low transforms into an open wave and tracks east.
Mid and high level moisture associated with Hurricane Orlene in the eastern Pacific will move across Mexico into the region Sunday into Sunday night night ahead of a mid level trough over northwestern Mexico.
This feature will push through mostly unnoticed as no precipitation is expected with it, but it will introduce a reinforcing shot of drier air across the region as the flow turns more northwesterly with building high pressure from the north.
224 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022 Rain chances are expected to continue due to a trough digging into the US to our west. Limited instability will be helped by WAA ahead of the trough to get enough for some isolated rumbles of thunder in the short term.
(This evening through Sunday) The forecast continues to be repetitive, with an established upper level ridge resulting in clear skies, warm temperatures, and dry conditions. Temperatures will continue to be rather steady, with the highs expected to be in the mid 80s and lows in the upper 40s/low 50s.
(The rest of today ) Going forecast of high temps a few degrees warmer compared to yesterday is trending well, with mostly clear skies, light winds and low humidity expected.
At 300 PM, a closed upper low was producing unsettled weather in Colorado, Wyoming and Montana.
1215 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022 (The rest of today ) Going forecast of high temps a few degrees warmer compared to yesterday is trending well, with mostly clear skies, light winds and low humidity expected.
With the remnants of Hurricane Ian across the eastern United States and an upper level low over the Northern Rockies, the Central High Plains will be under an upper level ridge aloft. As for temperatures, lows tonight will dip into the low to mid 50s with highs tomorrow reaching into the lows to mid 80s.
Lows both tonight and Sunday night will remain in the low to mid 50s, nearly 10 degrees above normal.
(This evening through Sunday) Southwest flow aloft overhead will continue through Sunday with a couple of nearly stationary upper level lows. These upper lows were located over the northern Rockies and over northern Sonora. We will again see weak lee surface cyclogenesis and troughing which will keep surface winds out of the southeast and temperatures near seasonal averages.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) An upper level ridge is over the central part of the country with an upper low centered over Idaho and Wyoming. Another upper low is over Northern Mexico. High temperatures on Sunday may be a little cooler than today with surface winds becoming more easterly. Low temperatures tomorrow night will range from the 40s in the higher elevations of the mountains to the 60s along the Rio Grande and Lower Trans Pecos.
A cut-off low over the northern Rockies will creep eastward over the next few days keeping our weather fairly stagnant.
126 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022 (Today and tonight) Dry northwesterly flow will continue today with Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian located well northeast of the area. Mostly clear skies are expected with afternoon highs mainly in the mid 80s and overnight lows ranging from the low 50s across the normally cooler locations to near 60 along the coast.
Mid-level ridge is spreading east across our forecast area today. Mixing in this dray air mass through this afternoon should result in dew points down into the lower 40s and RH values as low as 20 to 30 percent. Highs will again be on the warmer side with readings in the lower 80s but dry air will keep conditions nice. Overnight lows tonight will drop into the lower 50s with some upper 40s possible in outlying locations.
105 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022 A weak transient omega blocking pattern and associated positive midlevel height anomalies over Canada will occur in the short term. As post-tropical cyclone Ian departs, high-level clouds in far eastern Indiana will move east.
211 PM MDT Sat Oct 1 2022 Closed upper low over the northern/central Rockies will slowly migrate east the next few days, supporting continued chances for rain. Further west, cooler conds are in place with temps in the 60s/70s, and few 50s further west. As the low slowly shifts east, a stronger impulse will support pressure falls over the region Sunday, allowing ll winds to respond shifting southerly. This will support positive theta-e adv over the region (WAA), with warmer temps expected region wide. Cool front will begin to move back SE Mon-Tue with chances for showers persisting through Tues as the upper trough slowly pushes east. Rain chances/coverage will gradually diminish in this period as the low weakens/fills.
1208 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022 (Today through Sunday Night) Low level ridging stretching from the Great Lakes into Tx and mid- upper ridge along the western Gulf will maintain dry, pleasant wx.
N/NE pressure gradient will tighten Mon as low pressure (including some form of Ian remnants) develops offshore the mid Atlc coast. Temperatures continue to be quite nice, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the low to mid 60s Mon-Tue, creeping up to the upper 60s/near 70 along the coast Wed-Fri due to persistent onshore flow.
(This evening through Sunday Night) Dry and mild weather will continue through the remainder of this weekend as Canadian high pressure dominates. Thus, expect slightly below normal values as highs maintain the lower to mid 80s on Sunday while lows fall back into the upper end of the 40s to lower 50s tonight and perhaps a few degrees warmer on Sunday night.
An omega block at 500mb sends the ridge axis right through the Great Lakes.
Lows tonight will be in the mid 50s, with highs tomorrow in the low 80s. Cluster analysis and ensembles show a general upper level troughiness is forecast for the period. This will lead to cool overnight lows, generally in the mid to upper 50s, with highs in the low to mid 80s. By mid to late week, temperatures rise a bit due to a brief stint of upper level ridging. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, with slightly warmer overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s for much of the area.
With a low pressure system centered over the Idaho/Wyoming border, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be expected for this afternoon with chances across the high terrain and northeastward into the Four Corners region. Low pressure centered over southeastern Idaho early this morning will move little over the next couple of days. Main storm activity will be along and north of the Mogollon Rim with development occurring over the higher terrain first before expanding in coverage elsewhere.
1228 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022 Mid-level ridge is spreading east across our forecast area today. Mixing in this dray air mass through this afternoon should result in dew points down into the lower 40s and RH values as low as 20 to 30 percent. Highs will again be on the warmer side with readings in the lower 80s but dry air will keep conditions nice. Overnight lows tonight will drop into the lower 50s with some upper 40s possible in outlying locations.
However, there is an area of showers and thunderstorms in central Wyoming, closer to the center of the low. With the higher instability, with the thunderstorms. Through Sunday, the rainfall should start to tapper off from west to east, but this will still be fairly slow as the low is not moving fast. Overall the rain totals over the next 36 hours are mainly less than an inch, with the highest totals still near the foothills and mountains.
318 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022 At 315 PM, a closed upper low was producing unsettled weather in Colorado, Wyoming and Montana.
North and Central Texas remain sandwiched between a deep upper low over the Intermountain West and the remnants of Ian opening up as an upper level trough over the eastern CONUS. With weak ridging persisting aloft, this pattern will continue to be supportive of large diurnal temperature swings this weekend. Afternoon highs will warm to near or slightly above normal while dry air and radiational cooling contribute to cooler than normal mornings.
Low pressure stalled over the Intermountain West in conjunction with a weak low over northwest Mexico will provide enough moisture and lift to keep chances of showers and thunderstorms in parts of Mohave County this afternoon and Sunday afternoon. Regardless, a stalled expansive low pressure system over the Intermountain Region will supply some weak dynamic support while a weak low pressure system over northwestern Mexico supply the moisture necessary to generate showers and storms over parts of Mohave County each afternoon. As the low to our south pivots somewhat closer to the Arizona border on Sunday, storm chances increase across with isolated to scattered storms forecast for much of Mohave County.
256 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022 Discussion/Marine Quiet weather continues under surface and upper ridging.
141 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022 Quiet morning across the region with mainly clear skies and temperatures in the low to mid 70s as of 10AM.
A blocky mid to upper level pattern will lead to dry and slightly above normal temperatures for the rest of the weekend into Mon, as the upper level ridge remains centered over the region.
226 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022 Through Sunday: A mid-level ridge is spreading east across our forecast area today. Dew points in the dry air mass have mixed down to the lower and mid 40s, with RH values as low as 25 to 35 percent.
219 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022 Upper level low pressure will keep spinning over WV/VA for the next two days.
207 PM MDT Sat Oct 1 2022 Upper low currently located near the Wyoming/Idaho state line. Upper low tracks northeast into western Montana Sunday.
417 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022 The remnants of Hurricane Ian have mostly merged with a mid latitude trough. Key Points: * High pressure brings the return of dry conditions across Eastern Kentucky through the greater half of the upcoming work week.
A low pressure system currently over southeast Idaho will be slowly moving to the north and east over the next 24 to 36 hours. The low pressure system should be over central Montana by Sunday afternoon. A ridge of high pressure will build over the western United States during the first part of the work week, keeping the Northern Rockies in weak northwesterly flow aloft. The ridge axis is anticipated to move over the Northern Rockies by the end of the week causing warm and dry conditions. The low pressure system over southeast Idaho will continue to cause wrap around precipitation that is mainly affecting KBTM and to a lesser extent KSMN this afternoon. The low is anticipated to slowly move to the north and east tonight into Sunday.
243 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022 High surface pressure and ridging aloft across the central CONUS continue to dominate our sensible weather. The ridge is buttressed by two upper-level lows: one in the intermountain West that has moved only minimally over the last 24 hours and the other over the Southeast US associated with PTC Ian. While the low to the west of the Mid-Mississippi Valley will eventually move downstream, a noted lack of steering flow aloft will keep the current weather pattern in place through the weekend.
Upper low centered over East Idaho this afternoon. Radar shows shower activity beginning to fill back in around the low early this afternoon, and a lightning flash or two have been noted east of the center. High-res CAMs still having some difficulty painting the isolated- scattered convection through the evening around the low, so opted to blend latest NBM with a heavier smoothing and previous forecast which did the same. The best chance for stronger convection remains generally east of the low center (and east of I-15) through mid evening. Upper low fills slightly and shifts northeast into Montana overnight into early Sunday. Another round of showers remains possible Sunday, but generally shifting east/northeast with the low. Temps remain quite cool into Sunday, and a few very light accumulations will be possible on some of the higher peaks, generally above 9000ft/pass level.
102 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022 Sustained northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots through most of the taf period, as southeast Michigan remains in between strong high pressure over Ontario and the remnants of Ian along the eastern Seaboard. The pairing between central CONUS ridge amplification and eastern Canadian troughing act to block the northward advance causing the disturbance to degrade over the weekend. Still expect afternoon gusts in the 20-25 mph range today for the Greater Metro area as the northwest periphery of the low-level wind field brushes past the southern waterways, although recent model trends have lowered the coverage/frequency of 30 mph peak winds. Partial cloud coverage props up overnight lows to around 50F as a transient back-door (dry) cold front spills through Southeast Michigan.
High pressure and offshore flow will lead to dry and warm weather over the next several days.
750 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022 (This evening through Sunday) Southwest flow aloft overhead will continue through Sunday with a couple of nearly stationary upper level lows. These upper lows were located over the northern Rockies and over northern Sonora. We will again see weak lee surface cyclogenesis and troughing which will keep surface winds out of the southeast and temperatures near seasonal averages.
We are moving from being in the space between a trough to the east and ridge to the west to being dominated by the ridge as systems move eastward.
High pressure was located to our north over northwestern Ontario this afternoon with low pressure over central South Dakota. A warm front arced eastward into southern Minnesota from this low. The warm front will lift to the north overnight and shift the area of showers to the north as well. High pressure is expected to build to our east as well, impeding the eastward progression of the low over South Dakota.
926 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022 Surface analysis this evening shows strong high pressure in place over northern Ontario and Hurricane remnants were found over VA. Aloft a ridge was found over the plains states, and this was resulting in NW flow aloft and subsidence across the Great Lakes and Indiana. Little change is expected overnight as this blocking pattern is expected to persist. The ridge aloft and high pressure system will continue to provide subsidence as the Hurricane remnants remain to the east. A weak transient omega blocking pattern and associated positive midlevel height anomalies over Canada will occur in the short term. As post-tropical cyclone Ian departs, high-level clouds in far eastern Indiana will move east.
815 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022 Current forecast remains on track with a pleasant night in store, with lows in the lower and middle 50s. Lows tonight will be in the mid 50s, with highs tomorrow in the low 80s. Cluster analysis and ensembles show a general upper level troughiness is forecast for the period. This will lead to cool overnight lows, generally in the mid to upper 50s, with highs in the low to mid 80s. By mid to late week, temperatures rise a bit due to a brief stint of upper level ridging. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, with slightly warmer overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s for much of the area.
603 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022 (This evening through Sunday) The forecast continues to be repetitive, with an established upper level ridge resulting in clear skies, warm temperatures, and dry conditions. Temperatures will continue to be rather steady, with the highs expected to be in the mid 80s and lows in the upper 40s/low 50s.
709 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022 Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian will bring rain showers and breezy conditions to the region today. Rain showers will continue to be intermittent throughout the evening with the support of vorticity advection of post- tropical cyclone Ian and jet interaction. Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian will decay Sunday as dry air north of the Great Lakes advances south, and the remnant low transforms into an open wave and tracks east.
(Rest of tonight) Another night of tranquil weather as high pressure keeps dry and cool conditions in place.
A weak transient omega blocking pattern and associated positive midlevel height anomalies over Canada will occur in the short term. As post-tropical cyclone Ian departs, high-level clouds in far eastern Indiana will move east.
Discussion: Our region remains underneath mid level ridging sandwiched between a nearly stagnant closed low over the Intermountain West and the low associated with the remnants of Ian over Appalachia. Temperatures this afternoon are a bit warmer than yesterday, with 3 PM temps in the mid to upper 70s with clear skies persisting.
/33/ (This evening through Sunday Night) Dry and mild weather will continue through the remainder of this weekend as Canadian high pressure dominates. Thus, expect slightly below normal values as highs maintain the lower to mid 80s on Sunday while lows fall back into the upper end of the 40s to lower 50s tonight and perhaps a few degrees warmer on Sunday night.
Temperatures are hovering right around 60 degrees with dewpoints in the low 40s.
/DL/ Through Sunday: A mid-level ridge is spreading east across our forecast area today. Dew points in the dry air mass have mixed down to the lower and mid 40s, with RH values as low as 25 to 35 percent.
629 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022 Through Sunday: A mid-level ridge is spreading east across our forecast area today. Dew points in the dry air mass have mixed down to the lower and mid 40s, with RH values as low as 25 to 35 percent.
A 500 mb low pressure currently over eastern Idaho and western Wyoming will be the main weather feature through the short term portion of the forecast. At the surface, an area of low pressure located over central SD will remain near the CWA over the next 24 to 36 hours. The low pressure will bring breezy south to southeasterly winds, along with warm temperatures for this time of year. Pcpn chances should begin increasing on Sunday, mainly Sunday night as the upper level trough slowly approaches the CWA, with some upper level support moving into the western CWA as well.
519 PM MDT Sat Oct 1 2022 Closed upper low over the northern/central Rockies will slowly migrate east the next few days, supporting continued chances for rain. Further west, cooler conds are in place with temps in the 60s/70s, and few 50s further west. As the low slowly shifts east, a stronger impulse will support pressure falls over the region Sunday, allowing ll winds to respond shifting southerly. This will support positive theta-e adv over the region (WAA), with warmer temps expected region wide. Cool front will begin to move back SE Mon-Tue with chances for showers persisting through Tues as the upper trough slowly pushes east. Rain chances/coverage will gradually diminish in this period as the low weakens/fills. An upper low over WY/ID border will spin scattered shra/isolated TS into the area through the period.