Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Dry conditions will continue overnight, but low stratus or perhaps a few spots of fog can't be ruled out mainly over south MS as a subtle warm front begins to encroach upon the area. The highest rain chances will be focused over generally the southern half of the area as the pool of deeper moisture will still be in the process of spreading northward.
The mid-level ridge over the desert southwest and northern Mexico breaks down as a closed mid level low slowly slides south and becomes centered over the Texas coast. The CWA remains largely on the subsident side of the low. Across the waters, moisture is a little better and on the east side of the low and would not be surprised to see a few streamer showers during the overnight and early morning hours, but coverage will be limited. Overnight temperatures remain on the warm side as well, providing little relief, with lows only falling into the low to mid 70s.
1106 AM MDT Sat Jun 10 2017 A pretty decent cold front is move southwestward across the plains at about 15 knots right now. The air behind the front is somewhat cooler with dew point readings about 10-20 F higher. May alter the highs a bit. Now more stability is moving in behind the cold front. Strong southwest flow aloft has kept valley inversions from forming in most of the high country. There is a cold front pushing south across southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle early this morning, but this feature will weaken and eventually wash out as it encounters strong daytime heating and mixing of very warm southwest flow aloft.
/Issued 1025 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017/ Southerly winds on the increase this morning with high pressure to the east and troughing to the west.
528 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017 We will continue warming through the end of the weekend as deep layer ridging lingers. This pattern will hold through the start of the new work week with upper ridging weakening each day.
321 PM MDT Sat Jun 10 2017 Southwest flow aloft over the area will continue tonight and Sun, as an upper low moves slowly southward from the Pacific Northwest coast into northern CA. Also, with the very warm temps, rapid snowmelt will continue in the high country which will keep rivers and streams running high and fast. Recent longer term PV analysis, computer simulations and forecast model soundings indicate that generally dry, warm and gusty winds at times should be noted over the forecast district for the balance of the longer term as the dry southwesterly upper flow of Sunday night transitions to an upper ridge becoming centered near the 4-corners region by next Saturday.
159 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017 Aviation Winds will increase today as low pressure deepens across southern Canada.
250 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017 A beautiful summer afternoon is ongoing around the region, with temperatures currently in the low to mid 80s under mostly sunny skies. Meanwhile, upper height analysis positions the region under a building ridge, with a trough axis extended down the east coast.
256 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017 Heights building across the Nation's midsection this afternoon as a deep upper trough continues digging into the Pacific Northwest.
hot! The ridge over the the Southwest US into TX will flatten as an upper low drops south out of the Pacific NW into Northern CA. This upper low will then swing northeast into the Northern Rockies and Plains states by the middle of the week. This will result in the the thermal ridge being centered. The Low Rolling Plains will be a couple of degrees "cooler" with more moisture and being farther away from the center of the thermal ridge. and unless the dryline is very sharp (which is difficult/rare this time of year with the H7 trough farther north) we should not see any more than isolated storms at best.
547 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017 No major changes to the forecast this afternoon, as the area remains situated in an area of ridging aloft and gusty southerly flow at the surface.
The weak mid to upper level low just east of College Station will drift south through the upper Texas coast through Sunday evening and then into the northwest Gulf of Mexico by late Sunday night. Pulled the mention of isolated showers for coastal areas Sunday night with only a slim possibility of showers for the offshore waters with the upper low pushing down into the northwest Gulf of Mexico.
Upper levels remain weakly ridged over region through Sunday night, but this ridge is far from dominating and the capping inversion we have enjoyed the past few days continues erode. Cannot rule out the possibility of some kind of weak wave moving into the area under the weak upper ridge, however any convection should be highly diurnal in nature.
A potent area of low pressure crossing the Great Basin Sunday will lead to very windy conditions.
Upper level ridge axis passing overhead, but expect enough surface heating by late this afternoon or early this evening very isolated, very high based convection. Storm chances should be a little bit higher Sunday as cyclonic flow begins to replaces the ridge aloft.
A cold front will continue to make its way east overnight, but then should splay out west to east over Nebraska. Convective debris cloudiness and ne/easterly winds may keep temps a little cooler on Sunday, but still above normal.
increasing clouds from the northwest with the cold front.
359 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017 Very warm weather is ahead with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s into midweek as an upper level ridge builds into the eastern United States.
208 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017 Sub-tropical high pressure will expand across the southeastern U. WV satellite imagery and 12Z RAOB data indicate a longwave trough spans the length of the U. As the trough moves ewd, sub-tropical ridging now extending from near the FL peninsula to the mid MS Valley and upper Midwest will strengthen and expand across the southeastern U.
South Central Texas remains between a SW-NE oriented ridge axis extending from Big Bend into Oklahoma and a mid-to-upper level low that is cutting off over east Texas. High temperatures tomorrow will be near normals in the lower 90s with some mid to upper 90s in the Rio Grande Plains.
307 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017 Sub-tropical high pressure will expand across the southeastern U. WV satellite imagery indicates the longwave trough analyzed over the U. As the trough continues ewd, sub- tropical ridging now extending from near the FL peninsula to the mid MS Valley and upper Midwest will strengthen and expand across the southeastern U.
116 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017 The axis of the high amplitude upper level ridge will shear directly across Lower Michigan today in response to a differential increase in westerlies over western Canada. Early morning WV satellite imagery shows the upper level low digging into the west coast as part of a blocking pattern developing over the Gulf of Alaska. Corresponding ridge development is also evident over the central U. This high pressure will combine with troughing in the lee of the Rockies and produce moderate southwest low level flow starting today with gusts around 30 mph by mid afternoon.
Dominate ridging influences sfc/aloft thru 11/12Z.
The highest chances for aviation impacts will continue through 03Z, then decreasing becoming overall VFR during the overnight hours. The highest coverage is still expected to be over the interior counties after 18Z. On Sunday, the front washes out as high pressure ridges west across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico.
Medium Warm and gusty SSW wind regime will continue into this evening with low pressure lifting north into Canada. Cloud band associated with trough in axis of higher MLCAPE and meso progs develop some convection associated with this feature and shift it into WI later this evening and overnight. Should be another warm, breezy day with some higher dew points nudging into at least the lower 60s. 925 temps support highs well into the 80s with the 00z ECMWF showing readings near 28c in the western CWA though other models a few degrees cooler.
659 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017 High pressure will continue to build into the area through Sunday, maintaining fair weather, with temperatures slightly above normal. Only thing I am watching tat might play a role in an update later tonight is the high cloud deck surging north through Florida. Upper level ridging will remain over the region through the period.
1124 AM MDT Sat Jun 10 2017 A disturbance moving out ahead of a closed low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest drove a cold front across the eastern Uinta Basin at around 05Z. Rejected cooler afternoon highs put forth in the model blends for all but the northwesternmost portion of the forecast area and went with a near persistence forecast today. The trend toward more southwesterly flow continues tonight as the closed low to the northwest moves over northern California late tonight/Sunday morning time frame. This will cause the cold front to lift north of the area. The closed low over the Pacific NW begins to dive southward to northern California on Sunday.
Surface ridging persists over the western Atlantic and eastern Gulf, maintaining southeast flow across the local area through the near term. A weak inverted trough embedded within this ridge is progged to swing north into the eastern Gulf and southeastern U.
An upper level low over southeast Texas will slowly sink southward during the next few days.
Min temps will trend a bit warmer with SE winds and a bit more cloud cover to help insulate.
High pressure continues to dominate the region and keep partly cloudy skies and warm conditions to start the weekend.
320 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017 Afternoon surface analysis shows a area of high pressure remains parked nearby and this is providing fair weather across the Bluegrass State. Given the warmer temperatures today lows will be warmer than last night, with lows dropping into the upper 50s in the deeper valleys and low to mid 60s on the ridges. High pressure will continue to control the short term period. However, given the rising heights and 850mb temperatures the high temperature will continue to increase Sunday.
257 PM MDT Sat Jun 10 2017 The cold front that is pushing south and west across the plains has slowed down considerably early this afternoon. The low level pressure and wind fields have a drainage/downsloping combination overnight, then more easterlies on Sunday. For temperatures, Sunday's highs look to be 1-4 C cooler than this afternoon's.
Temperatures will remain cooler than normal for this time of year, and the subtle clearing skies tonight could allow for pockets of frost with some valleys dropping into the 30s by Sunday morning. Warmer temperatures and mostly sunny skies will be expected for much of Sunday before the next period of wet weather.
1049 AM PDT Sat Jun 10 2017 Today will be cooler than average with scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm possible.
245 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017 19Z water vapor imagery shows a closed upper low moving onshore along the OR coast. At the surface, a low pressure system has lifted through northern MN leaving a weak frontal boundary over eastern SD and central NEB. A lee trough was also noted across the CO high plains extending south through west TX and eastern NM. A moist low level airmass was noted from the TX gulf coast through MN ahead of the lee trough and frontal boundary. This is expected to keep the boundary layer mixed overnight with lows forecast to hold in the lower 70s.
General subsidence as the high pressure slides eastward has kept the weather dry over the Midwest.
143 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017 High pressure will continue to build into the area through Sunday, maintaining fair weather, with temperatures slightly above normal. High pressure will continue to build into the region. Skies will clear tonight and temperatures will cool into the lower to mid 60s. Center of upper ridging forecast to remain across the region through the period.
546 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017 Building high pressure will bring dry weather and warm temperature for the start of the new week. Fries Southerly boundary layer flow under amplifying ridge aloft will support further warmth and enhancing humidity into Sunday. Warm and more humid Upper Ohio weather will continue with the ballooning of a broad, Eastern CONUS high pressure as a deep Great Basin low digs.
Some of this cloud cover is keeping the temps slightly cooler than expected in the hourly grids. High pressure at the surface and aloft will dominate our weather through the end of the week. 500 mb heights will be building in across the southeast CONUS, allowing for mostly clear skies and warmer temperatures. Sunday will be a repeat performance, although readings will be slightly warmer still, with humidity levels a bit more on the rise as well.
A fairly nice Saturday is in store across the TN Valley, as high pressure continues to build across the region.
256 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017 Sub-tropical high pressure will expand across the southeastern U. WV satellite imagery indicates the longwave trough analyzed over the U. As the trough continues ewd, sub- tropical ridging now extending from near the FL peninsula to the mid MS Valley and upper Midwest will strengthen and expand across the southeastern U.
Strengthening southwest winds aloft next 24 hrs as closed upper low moves over PacNW this afternoon drops into nrn CA overnight.
This warming trend, in response to building high pressure and increased southerly flow will continue across the area. The resulting increase in surface dewpoints will keep temperatures from bottoming out too much overnight, with lows expected to be in the lower to mid 60s by Sunday morning. Sunday will be another warm and sunny day across the area, with the influence of the ridge remaining over the area.
300 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017 Weak upper low centered over SE TX trapped under the upper ridge axis over the ern half of the CONUS.
Weak mid and upper level ridging in place, enough to keep even much in the way of Cu field from developing so far this afternoon.
1126 AM MDT Sat Jun 10 2017 Current surface analysis shows cold front moving southeast across western SD, with gusty northwest winds behind it. Upper level analysis shows ridge now east of the region, over the upper MS river valley, with southwesterly flow in place from the west coast to the northern high plains ahead of upper low off the Pacific NW coast.
Latest water vapor and RAP upper air analysis indicate weak ridging over the Tennessee Valley that is expected to persist through Sunday. At the surface, broad area of high pressure dominates much of the SE US. For Sunday, highs in some Valley locations will start to reach into the lower 90s under continued mostly clear skies and low-level warm air advection. The first major upper level ridge of the warm season still progged to form over the most of the Eastern U.
206 PM MDT Sat Jun 10 2017 PAC NW Upper trough continues to support periodic impulses into the region, supporting a wavering frontal boundary over the FA.
155 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017 Sub-tropical high pressure will expand across the southeastern U. WV satellite imagery and 12Z RAOB data indicate a longwave trough spans the length of the U. As the trough moves ewd, sub-tropical ridging now extending from near the FL peninsula to the mid MS Valley and upper Midwest will strengthen and expand across the southeastern U.
Models handling the low level and 850mb features differently, specifically temperatures and location of dryline.
The warmest 850mb temps will be co-located with the more humid air to the west, with slightly cooler and drier air to the east. Heat index values in the low/mid 90s will be common, with some areas in east central Iowa potentially reaching the upper 90s.
215 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017 We will continue warming through the end of the weekend as deep layer ridging lingers. This pattern will hold through the start of the new work week with upper ridging weakening each day.
Associated band of shra/tsra will develop later this evening central/northern high plains north of the low and e-w oriented surface warm front also lifting ne. It does appear that best potential for strong storms will be to our south closer to warm frontal boundary and favorable convective parameters. The southern branch outlines an upper level ridge over the northern plains, with upper level troffing over the intermountain west.
A near carbon copy of today will again occur tomorrow as the low only progresses a few hundred miles inland over the next 24 to 36 hours. We will be slightly cooler on Sunday as the main thermal ridge begins to shift east. However we will remain well above normal and this will continue to help the snowpack come off the high country.
234 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017 High pressure will continue to build into the area through Sunday, maintaining fair weather, with temperatures slightly above normal. High pressure will continue to build into the region. Skies will clear tonight and temperatures will cool into the lower to mid 60s. Upper level ridging will remain over the region through the period.
Cumulus field to start off on the lower end of of VFR rising through the day. Weak mid/upper level low over East Texas becomes quasi- stationary with Deep South Texas positioned on the subsidence side of trough under a dry northwest flow.
Satellite water loop shows a large mid/upper level low pressure system continuing to move SE with the center of the low over the near shore waters of the Pacific just west of the central Oregon coast. The low will move into SW Oregon this afternoon. As such the low will spread increasing moisture into central and NE Oregon this afternoon for another day of numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms over the highlands of eastern Oregon. Aside from increasing the high temperatures for today by 1-2 degrees at elevations below 2000 feet, the current forecast is on track. SHRA are possible mainly over Oregon through 04z as upper low continues to move south along Oregon Coast and unstable airmass in place.
An upper level ridge over the central U. will refocus across the Southeast over the weekend as the region remains under the influence of high pressure centered off the Atlantic Coast. Dry conditions and mainly clear skies will persist through the weekend with a strong mid level subsidence inversion beneath the ridge.
236 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017 No major changes to the forecast this afternoon, as the area remains situated in an area of ridging aloft and gusty southerly flow at the surface.
Overnight lows will be warmer and muggier than the past couple of nights with increasing moisture.
212 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017 Latest surface chart indicates high pressure over the Appalachians and a frontal boundary draped over the northern Plains states.
Upper air and satellite data show southwesterly flow in place across the region, with areas of low pressure over eastern TX and the Pac NW, while broad ridging extends through through the Midwest and Great Lakes regions. At the surface, a cold frontal boundary had been shifting south this morning into portions of western/central Nebraska, pushed by an upper level disturbance crossing the Dakotas.
229 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017 Building high pressure will bring dry weather and warm temperature for the start of the new week. Residual afternoon convection in the form of cumulus will be suppressed this evening via subsidence under building high pressure. Southerly boundary layer flow under amplifying ridge aloft will support further warmth and humidity into Sunday. Warm and more humid Upper Ohio weather will continue with the ballooning of a broad, Eastern CONUS high pressure as a deep Great Basin low digs.
212 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017 High pressure continues to dominate the region and keep partly cloudy skies and warm conditions to start the weekend.
The ridge axis appears to be nearly through the state per water vapor imagery.
1245 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017 High pressure ridge axis has moved off the Atlantic coast, but weather for Central Illinois will remain dry and hot today. A tightening pressure gradient will result in a breezy day, and temps moving into the low 90s will mix down some gusts in the 25-30 mph range later this afternoon. 07z/2am surface analysis shows 989mb low over eastern North Dakota with warm front extending southeastward to southern Lake Michigan. As upper ridging continues to build into the Midwest, the warm front will get nudged further northward today. Pressure gradient will increase well ahead of the cold front and with deep mixing taking place to about 6000ft, am expecting wind gusts of 25 to 30mph from late morning through the afternoon.
An U/L ridge persists over the Florida peninsula creating large scale subsidence over the forecast area. with the ridge axis over the central Florida peninsula. Onshore flow developing due to the west coast sea breeze pushing slowly inland should hold max temps near the coast to around 90 to the lower 90s.
Also, a few more significant showers are located over east central Louisiana across the far northeast zones associated with the remnants of an upper level low. The low moisture values and and warming aloft with an upper ridge will keep the area dry and temperatures a couple of degrees hotter. This weekend the upper ridge will break down and a weak cold front will approach the area.
/issued 348 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017/ Today: High pressure with deep subtropical ridge will remain in place with east to southeast flow today. Stay hydrated as much as possible! Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 70s with some locations along the east coast in the lower 80s.
Dew points remain in the low to middle 70s, so as temperatures climb into the 90s early this afternoon, we run the risk of isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. On a separate note, with temperatures expected to climb into the low to middle 90s and dew points as high as they are, Heat Index values will climb into the low triple digits in many spots.
1014 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 High pressure will extend across the area through Wednesday.
For the remainder of the week, high pressure will regain control of our weather, bringing dry weather and warming temperature for the interior. Spoke of energy (vort maxes) rotating around the low will provide bursts of lift through the day. As the disturbance aloft moves to our east tomorrow, additional pieces of energy rotating around the low may spawn a couple of storms again, mainly east of a Hoopa to Yolla Bolly mountains line.
Temperatures will begin to warm later in the week as a ridge of high pressure rebuilds into our region. Starting tomorrow the upper level low centered overhead will begin to dissipate and progress off to the northeast as a ridge of high pressure rebuilds into our region.
A mid- level ridge is centered over Oklahoma and will persist thru Wednesday. /Issued 230 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017/ The upper ridge will remain firmly entrenched across the southern Plains. with high temperatures perhaps a degree or two warmer than today. A pattern change will ensue going into late this week as the upper ridge retrogrades and northwesterly flow develops across the region.
Heat index values from 100 to 105 will be possible with the highest readings over west central MO into southeast KS.
IR shows drier are moving in from the west this air will cause most areas to warm up quickly with temperatures in the lower 90s by 11 am. Daytime high temperatures will reach the mid 90s with heat index reaching the lower 100s.
705 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 A cold front will drop south into the region through the day today, stalling across the Carolinas on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the upper level trough will continue moving eastward out over the Atlantic, allowing high pressure to once again build into the region.