Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Day time highs of 100 to 105 will be centered over north-central Oklahoma, and with dewpoint temperatures in the low 70's across far SE parts of the CWA, heat indices could rise above 105 degrees.
Similar to last night, showers and thunderstorms are expected to form over the higher terrain of New Mexico and move to the southeast. The upper high will move a little west tomorrow, helping to further increase moisture advection into the area, with PWAT values expected to increase to near 1. Again, showers and thunderstorms are expected to form off of the higher terrain of northern New Mexico, with help from a weakness within the upper ridge to our west. Upper-level ridging will begin to expand across the southern U.
Temperatures are actually warmer behind the front because sunshine has been more abundant north of the boundary.
223 PM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022 A narrow low-level ridge reaches west across south-central Florida. East winds average 12 to 15 knots along the Reef, at times gusting into the high teens across the Lower Keys. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have persisted in a broad swath from the southeastern Gulf to the Cay Sal Bank, occasionally crossing portions of the Lower Keys. Low level ridging will remain entrenched across Florida, driving moderate east to southeast breezes across the Reef into the island chain.
1231 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022 The wave and cold front continue to move into the northwest FA, and they are still expected to progress out of this area by late evening. Along with this wave, a weak cold front is also expected to drop southeast, setting up along a Hallock to Jamestown line by 7 pm.
The upper level high, currently centered over the New Mexico/Arizona border, will shift slightly northwest and be over northern Arizona by Thursday morning. With considerable sunshine and the 850mb thermal ridge remaining strong, highs today will be similar to yesterday.
Another hot and dry day as a high pressure system centered over the Desert SW strengthens and amplifies a ridge over our forecast area. Clear skies and relatively light winds have allowed temps to climb into the 90s across our population centers, with highs in the lower Basin flirting with the century mark by the early evening.
A ridge will be across the area through tonight for warm, dry weather.
(This evening through Thursday) An upper level ridge will remain centered across the Desert Southwest through the next 24 hours.
Mid level height falls continue this evening as the closed low over tracks eastward through the northern Great Lakes Region.
Drier air pushes in from the west as trough approaches the west coast and the four corners highs flattens and shifts east slightly, forcing the monsoonal moisture a bit south and east.
Dome of high pressure aloft centered over AZ and NM remains in place. Between the two, we were in northwest flow which has allowed a slightly cooler and drier airmass to move in from the western part of the northern Plains. For Thursday, heights will increase aloft a bit and we should have a slightly warmer airmass in place. Look for highs mainly in the lower and mid 90s, with heat index values mainly below 100.
The only thing that is hampering storm development is timing of the upper level wave and cold front. Tonight, temperatures are forecast to range in the upper 50s as the cooler and drier air moves into the region.
KDHT has the highest confidence in having a shower or storm near the terminal at this time, so have added mentions into the TAF starting around 02z. Winds will gradually turn more to the northeast and east this afternoon ahead of another short wave trough that will be moving into the Panhandles from the northwest late this afternoon and tonight. The next short wave trough is expected to produce more showers and thunderstorms for our area Thursday and Thursday night as it moves southward through the region.
145 PM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022 High pressure over the Southwest will continue the hot weather for the deserts into the weekend while the marine layer keeps coastal areas cooler with areas of night and morning low clouds and fog.
255 PM MDT Wed Jul 20 2022 Thursday, the upper level ridge shifts eastward resulting in height rises and temperatures warming slightly aloft. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 90s for the lower elevations, 70s/80s for the foothills, and 60s/70s for the mountains. 7" over the higher terrain. Instability will be limited and confined to the high country and the far eastern plains with MLCAPE values 200- 600 J/kg. There will be a chance for lower coverage showers and thunderstorms with the best chances over the high country and east plains. Min relative humidity values drop into the low to upper teens over the plains.
(The rest of today ) Have made some adjustments this morning to account for trends in the high-based shower and storm activity, which has trended slowly south and should fade some going into the afternoon.
High pressure will remain in place through Thursday, leading to warm and dry conditions with afternoon breezes.
242 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022 The upper ridge that has been the primary driver for the hot temperatures across the region over the past few days remains over the southwestern CONUS today.
McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 94 72 95 73 / 40 40 30 20 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 74 92 71 93 71 / 40 40 20 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 73 92 70 92 70 / 40 30 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 87 67 91 66 / 50 40 10 10 0.
436 PM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022 A cold front will sweep through the region into tonight bringing notably less humid air late tonight into Thursday. Still plenty of instability behind the trough and the approaching wind shift/dewpoint front that extended from near Jackson MI SE to La Porte (shows up nicely on visible satellite and fine line on radar). A few showers popped up in MI with this feature, but poor lapse rates and a bit more subsidence behind the trough should help keep the front inactive across our area. Vigorous/compact mid level cyclone over Upper Peninsula will continue eastward track through Ontario overnight. Attendant cold front trailing southward through northwest Indiana to near KSTL. Weak trough drops southeast from the Upper Midwest into area late Thursday, however moisture should be routed enough to preclude PoPs/mention.
Area remains under a dry westerly flow aloft on the northern periphery of an expansive upper level ridge of high pressure centered over the SW and S-central US.
Left over short wave energy aloft in the trough will continue to add to instability across area this afternoon and evening.
653 PM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022 A cold front will sweep through the region bringing notably less humid air late tonight into Thursday. Still plenty of instability behind the trough and the approaching wind shift/dewpoint front that extended from near Jackson MI SE to La Porte (shows up nicely on visible satellite and fine line on radar). A few showers popped up in MI with this feature, but poor lapse rates and a bit more subsidence behind the trough should help keep the front inactive across our area. Vigorous/compact mid level cyclone over Upper Peninsula will continue eastward track through Ontario overnight. Attendant cold front trailing southward through northwest Indiana to near KSTL. Weak trough drops southeast from the Upper Midwest into area late Thursday, however moisture should be routed enough to preclude PoPs/mention.
From synopsis, High pressure centered to the east of Bermuda and extending westward across Florida will maintain gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes across the Florida Keys coastal waters through the weekend.
Northwest flow was in place aloft early today between an upper high over the AZ/NM region and an upper low over the Great Lakes. Modest north winds and the surface were the rule over eastern Kansas at 18Z with weak high pressure in western Nebraska Temperatures had again reached the 90s over most locations despite the cold front's passage last night.
Overnight low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 70s. Left over short wave energy aloft in the trough will continue to add to instability across area this afternoon and evening.
Bermuda ridge axis across Central FL directs a SE/SW flow across the state. Tomorrow, temperatures rise into the low to mid 90s.
Tightly wound upper level low pressure system will result in some midlevel instability showers at MBS but kept the mention out of the other sites. Severe thunderstorm activity will be out of the entire CWA shortly, as mid level trough axis swings through early this evening. There is one more spoke of energy rotating through northern Wisconsin on the backside of the departing upper level low, which looks to be tracking through central/northern Lower Michigan tonight.
626 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022 The upper ridge that has been the primary driver for the hot temperatures across the region over the past few days remains over the southwestern CONUS today.
Also tried to highlight the brief gusty winds associated with the cold front.
At the surface, it appears the weak cold front was somewhere along a Cando to west of Bismarck line. Cooler and drier air is evident on upstream observations over northwest ND into southern Saskatchewan. Temps Sat will be a good 5 to 10 degrees cooler in the wake of the frontal passage. This will be accompanied by the next signal for storms, during Tue/Wed, as the mean trough sets up over the Northern Plains.
Wind should relax overnight and become northerly behind a cold front Thursday.
619 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022 (This evening through Thursday) An upper level ridge will remain centered across the Desert Southwest through the next 24 hours.
/ISSUED 546 PM MDT Wed Jul 20 2022/ Area remains under a dry westerly flow aloft on the northern periphery of an expansive upper level ridge of high pressure centered over the SW and S-central US.
543 PM MDT Wed Jul 20 2022 Thursday, the upper level ridge shifts eastward resulting in height rises and temperatures warming slightly aloft. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 90s for the lower elevations, 70s/80s for the foothills, and 60s/70s for the mountains. 7" over the higher terrain. Instability will be limited and confined to the high country and the far eastern plains with MLCAPE values 200- 600 J/kg. There will be a chance for lower coverage showers and thunderstorms with the best chances over the high country and east plains. Min relative humidity values drop into the low to upper teens over the plains.
219 PM MST Wed Jul 20 2022 Warmer than average temperatures will continue this week with a daily chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, mainly south and east of Tucson.
Ridge centered over southwest builds east today and dominates the weather pattern through the short term bringing more normal summer conditions of rain and heat. Precipitable water values are normal for this time of year, but rain chances will be low today and tonight because of the high pressure and relatively weak vertical forcing and lift.
405 AM EDT Thu Jul 21 2022 The 06/07z analysis features a closed stacked low pressure system over the eastern Great Lakes lifting into southern Ontario/Quebec. An upper level trough under the low protrudes south and eastward into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. A frontal boundary descends from the low across the eastern Ohio Valley and into lower Mississippi Valley. That said, if low cloud cover holds longer, high temperatures could be cooler. Skies remain clear through Thursday night, allowing for temperatures to dip into the low 60s in the valleys. The ridge sites will have overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.
Severe thunderstorm activity will be out of the entire CWA shortly, as mid level trough axis swings through early this evening. There is one more spoke of energy rotating through northern Wisconsin on the backside of the departing upper level low, which looks to be tracking through central/northern Lower Michigan tonight.
423 AM EDT Thu Jul 21 2022 Satellite imagery shows the low over northern Ontario continuing to pull away early this morning. As dry air behind the low continues to cycle over the region, expect any remaining cloud cover to leave this morning. Thus, lows should be in the low to mid 60s early this morning. In its wake, a cold front will track through the UP today, but it will be dry with limited moisture and surface ridging.
905 PM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022 High pressure over the Southwest will continue hot weather in the deserts into the weekend while the marine layer keeps coastal areas cooler with areas of night and morning low clouds and fog.
Southwesterly flow will prevail through the near term period with winds increasing a touch as a cold front stalls over the southeast CONUS. High temperatures are forecast to be a bit warmer today than yesterday as onset of precipitation is forecast to be a bit later in the afternoon. Highs are forecast in the upper 80s near the coast to the low 90s inland.
Effective shear will be adequately strong, but low surface dew points struggling to exceed the low 50s will keep the severe risk low this afternoon, though an isolated stronger storm with hail approaching 1 inch in diameter is possible.
Today should be a sunny day with warmer than normal temperatures and a bit breezy with deep mixing to 750mb.
219 AM MDT Thu Jul 21 2022 Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with hot high pressure over the western half of the CONUS with a ridge spur running north over the Front range of central Alberta and British Columbia. Just north of this a strong closed low is making its way down the down the Yukon into northern British Columbia and slamming up against the ridge crest. the cold air behind this is expected to smash against the ridge and move it east rapidly with a surface cold front pushing down the High Plains.
Current water vapor satellite analysis shows the high spinning over Arizona with north northwesterly flow aloft. One difference with today is there will be lingering moisture with dewpoints in the lower 60s present across the eastern half of the Panhandles, which will lead to the potential for additional development this afternoon in these areas. Heading into tomorrow, the upper high will slide east a bit and more north northeasterly flow aloft. Rutt The center of the upper level high will start to slowly migrate to the east from the Southern Rockies to the southeast U.
217 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022 The long wave pattern overall continues to indicate a mid-level ridge over the Rockies, and mean troffing over the eastern CONUS. During the short range, the ridge flattens some as energy flows in off the Pacific Ocean. Initial thunderstorm development may be over NC SD where the low level thermal and theta-e ridge will be strongest.
As such, PoPs were updated to encompass these trends with a focus on northern areas for the highest values. Also, dew points were increased slightly to reflect the higher values that continued into this evening. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 72 94 72 96 / 50 30 10 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 71 93 71 95 / 50 10 10 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 90 70 93 70 95 / 40 10 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 67 91 66 94 / 40 10 0 0 10.
1002 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022 Surface cold front was analyzed over southeast MO at 10 PM, not quite yet through Poplar Bluff or Cape Girardeau. Dewpoints south of the front prevailed in the upper 70s, while to north over central MO, the lower 50s. Unlike the last surface boundary passage a few nights ago, upper divergence won't be as strong and 700mb temps are warmer, around 12C. Wind should relax overnight and become northerly behind a cold front Thursday.
Remnant H50 vortlobe across NOFL weakens as H50 ridge expands overhead.
331 AM EDT Thu Jul 21 2022 Recent surface analysis indicates that the ridge axis is positioned across the central Florida peninsula early this morning so the low level flow will primarily be from the southwest for locations mainly north of the Tampa Bay metro area but the flow will be more out of the southeast for areas further southward.
A ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the areas weather with dry conditions and above normal temperatures tomorrow. Another hot and dry day as a high pressure system centered over the Desert SW strengthens and amplifies a ridge over our forecast area. Clear skies and relatively light winds have allowed temps to climb into the 90s across our population centers, with highs in the lower Basin flirting with the century mark by the early evening.
324 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022 A cold front is currently draped along the KY/TN border with cooler and less humid air filtering into the region behind it. Northerly flow will allow significantly lower humidity into the region with dewpoints dipping into the low to mid 60s by afternoon. So while high temperatures will only be 2 to 5 degrees cooler than yesterday, it will feel remarkably nicer with the lower humidity.
318 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022 Northwest flow aloft remains over the Northern/Central Plains with an upper high centered over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, a very weak stationary front stretches just south of the KS/OK border with weak high pressure situated over east/central KS. Additional storms will develop out over the High Plains of northwest KS as a weak upper impulse slides across Northern CO. This will allow a weak cold front to push south and setup generally along the KS/NE border for Sat night through Sun and will provide some small storm chances to areas generally along and north of I-70. Not much is expected to change for Mon into Tue as a cold front remains positioned across the northern portion of the forecast area.
The large upper level low moving through Upper Great Lakes region will continue to move eastward. That large upper level low will retrograde northeastward and settle over the Hudson Bay as the low absorbs approaching low moving across Canada. The NAM continues to show a short wave trough through the mid levels move through southern Michigan this evening. The 500 MB pattern has a long wave trough over this region with some Q vector convergence at 850mb.
Despite the cloud cover and precipitation impacts, widespread triple digit temperatures remain likely, with the highest values focused north of I-40 much like yesterday.
150 AM EDT Thu Jul 21 2022 A cold front will sweep through the region bringing notably less humid air late tonight into Thursday. Still plenty of instability behind the trough and the approaching wind shift/dewpoint front that extended from near Jackson MI SE to La Porte (shows up nicely on visible satellite and fine line on radar). A few showers popped up in MI with this feature, but poor lapse rates and a bit more subsidence behind the trough should help keep the front inactive across our area. Vigorous/compact mid level cyclone over Upper Peninsula will continue eastward track through Ontario overnight. Attendant cold front trailing southward through northwest Indiana to near KSTL. Weak trough drops southeast from the Upper Midwest into area late Thursday, however moisture should be routed enough to preclude PoPs/mention.
Water vapour loop had upper ridge over AZ into WA. Today/tonight, upper ridge axis shifts into the Rockies in response to energy moving onto the west coast.
An upper level high will sit over the Four Corners region through the short term with weak northwest flow found above western Kansas. The upper level high mentioned in the short term will spread eastward through this weekend placing western Kansas under weak westerly flow aloft.
Upper level ridging continues with the high pressure system remaining primarily stationary over the Four Corners. With this frontal boundary and the aforementioned upper level high pressure system position, a wind shift from the southeast will allow for some low level moisture to advect into our area. Once this upper level perturbation and surface warm front intersect, slight thunderstorm chances enter back into the forecast area. The exact timing of these storms will depend primarily on the progression of the subtle warm front and how far north it tracks into southwestern Nebraska.
314 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022 Upper level high pressure centered over eastern Arizona and western New Mexico will shift a bit further to the west today with further weakening of the ridge overhead. Daytime heating will then focus convective initiation back to the west on the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico, although some drying and subsidence noted on satellite imagery over southern Colorado and northern New Mexico might limit the extent. Further to the east across the Panhandle and southward onto the South Plains might be more favorable today with the weakening mid/upper level ridging combined with richer deep- layer moisture having rotated eastward and now located firmly over the forecast area.
422 AM EDT Thu Jul 21 2022 Satellite imagery shows the low over northern Ontario continuing to pull away early this morning. As dry air behind the low continues to cycle over the region, expect any remaining cloud cover to leave this morning. Thus, lows should be in the low to mid 60s early this morning. In its wake, a cold front will track through the UP today, but it will be dry with limited moisture and surface ridging.
A weak trough will pivot through Nebraska this evening providing a focus for storm initiation.
/issued 1002 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022/ Surface cold front was analyzed over southeast MO at 10 PM, not quite yet through Poplar Bluff or Cape Girardeau. Dewpoints south of the front prevailed in the upper 70s, while to north over central MO, the lower 50s. Unlike the last surface boundary passage a few nights ago, upper divergence won't be as strong and 700mb temps are warmer, around 12C. Wind SSW 8-12kts decreasing overnight and becoming northerly behind a cold front Thursday.
1252 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022 (This evening through Thursday) An upper level ridge will remain centered across the Desert Southwest through the next 24 hours.
456 AM EDT Thu Jul 21 2022 Satellite imagery shows the low over northern Ontario continuing to pull away early this morning. As dry air behind the low continues to cycle over the region, expect any remaining cloud cover to leave this morning. Thus, lows should be in the low to mid 60s early this morning. In its wake, a cold front will track through the UP today, but it will be dry with limited moisture and surface ridging.
1137 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022 The upper ridge that has been the primary driver for the hot temperatures across the region over the past few days remains over the southwestern CONUS today.
A weak trough will pivot through Nebraska this evening providing a focus for storm initiation. These were adjusted a bit above guidance, but may still need to be increased a few degrees warmer over the next day.
Above normal temperatures continue through the weekend with highs generally in the mid to upper 90s, though some of the lower elevation locations will reach into the low 100s.
The upper ridge is expected to remain quasi-stationary/persist over the Four Corners Region/southwestern CONUS/southern Plains during the period, while PWAT values over the CWA remain below normal.
949 AM EDT Thu Jul 21 2022 Satellite imagery shows the low over northern Ontario continuing to pull away early this morning. As dry air behind the low continues to cycle over the region, expect any remaining cloud cover to leave this morning. Thus, lows should be in the low to mid 60s early this morning. In its wake, a cold front will track through the UP today, but it will be dry with limited moisture and surface ridging.
636 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022 Temperatures will be on the increase the next couple of days as high pressure aloft shifts east. eventually flattening late in the weekend and allowing a cold front to cross the local area.
High pressure remains centered directly over northern Arizona, assisting with the above normal temperatures for this time of year. Our synoptic scale pattern will begin to shift as a trough from the west coast nudges up against the high pressure system previously mentioned and pushes this ridge eastward. With this movement, we'll revert back to the common monsoon pattern of the ridge centered over the Four Corners Region.