Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cloud cover has kept temperatures a little cooler than initially expected for this afternoon, with afternoon highs in the upper 50s and low 60s. Widespread sunshine is expected for Saturday, with temperatures in the low 70s.
323 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015 TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS CLOUD COVER LINGERS OVER THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS LOOK TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE A BIT TRICKY WITH CLEARING SKIES BUT SOUTHERLY ADVECTION OF WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND 850 MB. THINKING THAT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS INSTEAD OF DROPPING AT OR BELOW FREEZING LIKE YESTERDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SATURDAY. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER REGION WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAKENING WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SATURDAY. ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG IN ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS SALT LAKE COUNTY. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE DOWN 1 TO 3 DEGREES FROM TODAY OTHERWISE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TO TODAY SHOULD BE REALIZED.
147 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015 LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO START THE NEW WEEK. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EVERYWHERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE HELD OFF FROM ISSUING AN ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR THE FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD. DRY WX SETTING UP WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH LATE SAT.
Warm and dry conditions will continue through the evening and overnight hours as an upper level ridge will continue to remain over the area.
MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH A PVA NOSE ALONG A WEAK H5 TROF IS HELPING SPAWN VERY LIGHT -SHRA N OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR THIS AFTN. MAKING FOR GUSTY NW WINDS THRU THE EVENING ALONG WITH A MUCH COOLER SURGE OF AIR INTO THE REGION.
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS, AND CALM WINDS, PATCHY AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND BOTTOM OUT AROUND THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WITH THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES DISPLACED WELL N INTO THE NRN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION AND A VERY BROAD UPPER LOW OBSERVED OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA. MOIST SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX.
332 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING BRINGING AN END TO OUR LATE SEASON SNOWFALL. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH SATURDAY BRINGING DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE LAST DAY OR SO WILL ALSO GET EJECTED EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF KANSAS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TODAY WILL MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY WHILE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH ON SATURDAY AS THE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS.
SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY RETURN SATURDAY.
349 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW SETTLING DOWN THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH COLD FRONT SETTLING THROUGH SOUTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
159 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015 LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT HAS CREPT SOUTH OF KGRK AND LARGE SWATH OF RAIN/SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF A KTRL-KERV LINE.
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AUGMENTED WITH RADAR DATA SHOW A COLD FRONT ALONG A BRACKETTVILLE TO BOERNE TO AUSTIN-BERGSTROM AIRPORT LINE. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CONCERNS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 WOULD BE FAVORED FOR THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
A DEEP UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER BAJA WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN COLDER CONDITIONS TO END THE WEEKEND. PRECIP HAS QUICKLY EXITED THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER RIDGES INTO EARLY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY HELPING TO KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH A QUICK WARM UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH DRY AND GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS.
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE A BIT TRICKY WITH CLEARING SKIES BUT SOUTHERLY ADVECTION OF WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND 850 MB. THINKING THAT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS INSTEAD OF DROPPING AT OR BELOW FREEZING LIKE YESTERDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE EXTENDED AS THE JET STREAM REMAINS OVER THE PLAINS WITH A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE FIRST TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA STILL LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING MUCH IF ANY RAINFALL TO THE AREA. THE SECOND TROUGH. MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE PATH OF THE TROUGH AS FAR AS WILL IT MOVE OVER THE AREA OR BE FURTHER EAST.
336 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
TO THE NE OF THE LOW. THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN WAS BEING STALLED SOMEWHAT BY BLOCKING SITUATED ACROSS EUROPE.
320 PM MST FRI MAR 20 2015 TODAY IS A TRANSITION DAY TO FAIR WEATHER AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES AWAY FROM ARIZONA. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS RIDGING BUILD IN. THE BAJA LOW PUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND INTO WEST TEXAS ON SATURDAY WHILE THE DRY RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO ARIZONA. DRY AND WARM SPRING WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.
656 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
Latest surface map shows the next cold front extending from about west central Nebraska to northeast Minnesota. First up, the front passing through on Saturday affecting the high temps. Forecast temps a little warmer than today.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. DESPITE THE COLD FRONT.
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WILL AID IN PACIFIC MOISTURE TRANSPORT. AND INFLOW INTO A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ADD GULF MOISTURE TO THE MIX TO CREATE VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER TOTALS FOR THIS EVENT. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
357 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT BRINGING RAIN AND LOCALLY BREEZY WEATHER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON SATURDAY FOR SHOWERS AND A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT PERIODS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SLIDING OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND MONTANA BY SATURDAY. THERE IS A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WHICH BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
120 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015 LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA ON SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE PREVIOUS SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE RIDGES COUNTIES APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE AS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO EXIT EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. BEFORE A COLD FRONT INVADES FROM THE NORTH. WITH VERY LITTLE BREAK BETWEEN THE EXITING SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. A TONGUE OF WARMER AIR WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST AND DRIVE DAYTIME HIGHS ABOVE AVERAGE. HAVE TEMPERATURES HOLDING CLOSE TO WARMER NAM AND MAV NUMBERS. SATURDAY NIGHT A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE EJECTED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND BE CONSUMED BY THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOISTURE STARVED.
458 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015 LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA. WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. WHILE LOWER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST GOMEX MAINTAINS A STEADY INFLUX OF GULF MSTR. WITH THE THE WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTING OVER COOLER SSTS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MARINE FOG FORMATION AGAIN THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST IS PROGGED TO BEGIN SLOWLY OPENING UP LIFTING EASTWARD TONIGHT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK STORM SYSTEM BRUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
529 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING BRINGING AN END TO OUR LATE SEASON SNOWFALL. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH SATURDAY BRINGING DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A RIDGE DEVELOPING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO WYOMING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO COLORADO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT WARMING ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH MOST AREAS REACHING INTO THE 70S BY AFTERNOON.
258 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015 LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO START THE NEW WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
116 PM PDT FRI MAR 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TODAY AND SATURDAY. A TROUGH MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING A DEEPER MARINE LAYER.
324 PM PDT Fri Mar 20 2015 Cooler today and this weekend as a weak system clips the north state with a chance of precipitation well north of Sacramento Friday night and Saturday.
On Saturday a cold front will quickly push through the region causing widespread light precipitation and gusty westerly winds. Temperatures for Saturday will be running 5 to 10 degrees cooler compared to today, which will still be above average for this time of year.
348 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING BRINGING AN END TO OUR LATE SEASON SNOWFALL. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH SATURDAY BRINGING DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS.
656 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015 A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER CENTRAL PA TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
633 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015 A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER CENTRAL PA TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
351 PM MDT FRI MAR 20 2015 WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF THIS PERIOD KEEPING MILD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IN PLACE OVER THE CWA. WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE SATURDAY AS WEAK LEE TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SETS UP DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
AS MODELS AGREE THAT THE CURRENT UPPER LOW IN THE BAJA WILL START ITS DEMISE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.
204 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING BRINGING AN END TO OUR LATE SEASON SNOWFALL. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH SATURDAY BRINGING DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS.
UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WILL HEAD OUR WAY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
Have trended twd the cooler guidance tonight partially because of anticipating the clearing. While this may be a cold fnt, with nearly full insolation expected, tomorrow shud actually be warmer than today. Mdls also push the thermal ridge across the region on Sat. As the trof deepens across the Plains and the LLJ increases with what shud be an open Gulf, precip chances increase quickly Mon night and Tues, with TS becoming more probable as well. A cold front will move through the region on Saturday morning and flight conditions should be VFR at that time. A cold front will move through the region on Saturday morning and flight conditions should be VFR at that time.
354 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015 IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF UPPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUED ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON WELL AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW STILL CHURNING OVER BAJA CA.
327 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT ENTERING THE FAR NORTHWEST AROUND 03Z THEN PUSHING THROUGH MOST OF CENTRAL IOWA BY SHORTLY AFTER 06Z AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 12Z. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. PRIMARILY BECAUSE WE ARE ABOUT 20 DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN WE WERE YESTERDAY AND TEMPS WILL NOT BE FALLING FAST TONIGHT DUE TO A LITTLE BETTER MIXING.
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT THAT WAS JUST MOVING INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH THE REST JUST RAIN 12Z MODELS WERE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING AN AREA OF QPF ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS NEAR THE UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER.
WHILE IN THE LOWER 5OS IN NORTHEAST AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CWA TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT AND BACK EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MS AND EXTENDING NE INTO KY AS OF 1730Z.
UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND HAS NOT REALLY BEGUN TO OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT. OVERNIGHT BAJA UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT ON SATURDAY.
1229 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015 LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY. WHILE THE LOW WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE NORTH. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING INTRODUCING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. COOLING THINGS SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTH AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
Another round of heavy rainfall will be possible across much of the area on Saturday as the main upper level trough swings across the region. Overnight lows will not drop much given the expected cloud cover and will range from the mid 40s across much of the Big Country to the low to mid 50s across the Interstate 10 corridor. Highs will generally be in the low to mid 60s.
148 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET STREAK MAY RESULT IN ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY BUT WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH INTO INDIANA FRONT THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LINGERS SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE.
THIS MORNING'S CENTRAL TEXAS 5H TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS EAST OF THE STATE BY THE EARLY EVENING.
ALOFT, RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EXTENDING OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT POSITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS FROM TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW. HERE, THE LEE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED WITH RESULTANT WEAKER WINDS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS WILL APPROACH OR REACH 15 PERCENT, HOWEVER, WEAKER WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEE TROUGH. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. MODELS SHOWING SOME GOOD RETURN MOISTURE NEAR THE RETURNING WARM FRONT INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH AROUND 50 TO 55 DEWPOINTS. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST.
ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
519 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015 A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BROUGHT SOUTHEAST TEXAS TWO HEAVY SWATHS OF RAIN. CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT RAINS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. MONDAY MORNING WILL SEE RIDGING ALOFT AND DRIER AIR AT SURFACE SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
121 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
400 AM PDT SUN MAR 22 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING COOLING.
511 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015 QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST CORNER. FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS AND CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE THREAT FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES AND SFC TEMPERATURES INDICATING LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY FALLING. MADE A FEW CALLS TO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH INDICATED NO IMPACTS AS SO FAR THE LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP IS ONLY TRACING OUT. HAVE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT OUT NOW FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS UNLESS WE HEAR OF MORE IMPACTS AND A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY BECOMES NEEDED. MAIN THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER ACROSS MY SOUTHWEST THROUGH MID MORNING.
THE SYSTEM IS DEVOID OF MUCH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AS TROUGHING IS TAKING PLACE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. FORCING RIDGING DOWNSTREAM WITH LIMITED BAROCLINICITY IN THE FRONTAL ZONE. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER RED RIVER VALLEY OF NORTH TEXAS WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY AS WELL.
326 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING FEATURES DRY COLD FRONT THAT BASED ON OBS HAS MADE IT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION THIS HOUR. OUR WEATHER WILL START OUT QUIET MONDAY NIGHT WITH ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST.
1102 PM MDT SAT MAR 21 2015 A PACIFIC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WHILE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE MAINLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. THE COLD FRONT BESIDES BRINGING A WIND SHIFT. WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL IN THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS.
231 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 STRONG RIDGING CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. YOU'LL LOVE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S THANKS TO COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
255 AM MDT SUN MAR 22 2015 RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO SHOW A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AIR INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER DESPITE CLEAR SKIES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. SURFACE HEATING IN THE LOWER 70S WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLOSELY REACH THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
313 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TODAY WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MAINLY DRIVEN BY SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS MAX TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING. WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AREAS RIGHT NEAR THE LAKE WILL BE COOLER THAN ELSEWHERE. SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
324 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2015 The ua trough responsible for widespread rainfall is already east f the region and will be replaced by a low amplitude ua ridge. Even warmer temperatures are expected Monday as nearly zonal flow aloft will result in westerly winds increasing and spreading further eastward across the area.
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO PULL TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. THIS WEAK PATTERN WILL PERSIST LOCALLY AS A BROAD BUT WEAK COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OOZES ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH MONDAY. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOES FLATTEN. A TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
1221 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 913 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THEN THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE MID WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT. THEN GRADUALLY MOVING IT EAST AND THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST.
650 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 STRONG RIDGING CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. YOU'LL LOVE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S THANKS TO COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
THE LOW LEVEL SW WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. /ISSUED 251 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2015/ A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NORTH FLORIDA WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ON SUNDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, HOWEVER IT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO ERODE AND ALLOW FOR A MORE ZONAL FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER IN THE DAY. ON MONDAY, BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY.
538 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
331 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015 THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS CENTERED RIGHT OVER NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING AND CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. BUT LEE SIDE TROUGHING IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL SERVE TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
653 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL OFFER DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH. RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S NE TO THE LOWER 30S FAR SW.
534 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
211 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS EVIDENT ON TCVG RADAR PUSHING THROUGH OUR FAR SOUTHERN FA ATTM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND BEGIN TO DRY THINGS OUT AND HELP MIX OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. THIS MORNING'S CENTRAL TEXAS 5H TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS EAST OF THE STATE BY THE EARLY EVENING.
Temperatures today should be a touch cooler across the area thanks to the location of the front, east wind, and high level cloudiness.
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING FEATURES DRY COLD FRONT THAT BASED ON OBS HAS MADE IT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION THIS HOUR. OUR WEATHER WILL START OUT QUIET MONDAY NIGHT WITH ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST.