Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
644 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE WILL LINGER IN THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN BE FOUND IN THE REGION AS STRONG RIDGING ALOFT IN THE CENTRAL U.
THE UPPER LOW IS WHAT WILL BECOME THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE DAY. THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY WITH A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT 08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NW MT INTO NERN WY.
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EXIT THE AREA THIS MORNING. BROAD 850-700 HPA WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA/NORTHWEST OHIO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THICKNESS MINIMUM ACCOMPANYING DEPARTING UPPER LOW. EVEN PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN SPOTS DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE STORY THROUGH LABOR DAY AS AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN US/SE CANADA.
312 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015 IN THE UPPER LEVELS CURRENTLY HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH COMING ON SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE SPILLING INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE DESERT SW. STRONG LEE TROUGHING IS IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING WESTERN KS. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND BY MON MORNING WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL IA DOWN INTO SW KS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARM WITH 80S TO 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. ONE OR TWO CELLS MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE IT OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DEEPENS SAT THEN MOVES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SUN. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN FRI MANY LOCATIONS AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL SLIGHT WITH FLATTENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE. STILL APPEARS COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH COLORADO LATE SUN/EARLY MON AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MARCH EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
The upper levels show a broad upper ridge over the eastern CONUS with a longwave trough just making its way into the Pacific Northwest. As the clouds from over night clear, expect mixing to occur once again with highs climbing into the low 90s.
THE AREA REMAINS IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WIN OUT. HIGHS WILL AGAIN REACH INTO THE LOW AND MID 90S. MID LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OVER THE GULF WHILE LOWERING HEIGHTS/HIGH LEVEL TROF AXIS SLIPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROF. ACROSS THE SURFACE PRESSURE TROF. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 90S INTERIOR TO UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S INTERIOR TO MID 70S COAST.
NO NOTEWORTHY AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO WORK OVER THE CWA BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE AND THE WARM FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH LATE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO SOUTH TEXAS. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GULF AND WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER TROUGH WAS CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE MAINLY EAST OF OUR CWA WITH ONLY ISOLATED CELLS IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE.
621 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WARM FRONT WILL TRANSFER MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE SEVERAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AS WELL AS THE GFS/NAM FORECAST SOME CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH A BROAD THERMAL RIDGE OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA HIGHS WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 90S.
230 AM PDT WED SEP 2 2015 A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR AND COOL WEATHER THIS WEEK. SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK COASTAL EDDY AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST HAVE ALLOWED OUR MARINE LAYER TO DEEPEN TO ABOUT 3000 FEET.
LATEST SATELLITE VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH ARKANSAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. FOR THE SHORT TERM EXPECT THE UPPER TROUGH TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BEHIND IT ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AS THE LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AROUND HIGHS WILL IN THE LOWER 90S.
147 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE REGION BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE REGION. VALLEY FOG WILL BE LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS THE LAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THE REGION BY LATE EVENING.
A SHARP TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THU INTO THU NIGHT OVER THE WRN-CENTRAL CONUS WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY SENSIBLE KEEPING RAINFALL OVER THE ACTIVE PAC NW AND NRN ROCKIES ALONG WITH THE 4-CORNERS REGION. THE UPR RIDGE WILL SHIFT E INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS WHILE A CUTOFF LOW SWINGS INTO THE NRN CALIFORNIA COAST.
THE MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH IS STILL HANGING AROUND THE TEXAS COAST PER THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BC COAST THIS MORN IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH TO THE WA/OR COAST BY FRI MORN. ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL MTNS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH.
An upper level ridge stretching from northern Mexico into the southern plains will remain in place, and possibly strengthen just a bit.
A cold front will sweep through western Montana and central Idaho today, stalling across southwest Montana this evening. Behind the front on Thursday, much cooler temperatures should be expected, especially for locations that see steady precipitation.
402 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER TODAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE. WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT.
347 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ALONG THE PAC NW WILL CAUSE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPS COULD BE WARMER. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ALONG THE WEST COAST.
13/MH OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING AS GENERALLY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STICKS AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
228 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY WEST TOWARDS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST COAST.
OPTED TO RAISE POPS INTO THE LOW/MID RANGE CHC CATEGORY TOWARD THE WI BORDER. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WED. RIDING THE N EDGE OF THE LARGER 500MB RIDGE SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN. MORE FOG LKLY OVERNIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME MINS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON THE WHOLE. SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTLINE AND THIS WILL PROVIDE A BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE CONFINED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SOME CONVECTION MAY MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
342 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PLUNGE INTO THE PACIFIC NW ON THURSDAY. STRENGTHENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE EXISTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US. PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS.
451 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE WILL LINGER IN THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN BE FOUND IN THE REGION AS STRONG RIDGING ALOFT IN THE CENTRAL U.
300 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.
123 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.
342 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER SE GA TODAY BRINGING A SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH IT.
ONE LAST WARM DAY BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THURSDAY. BUT AS MUCH AS 10 DEGS COOLER THAN YESTERDAY IN BAKER COUNTY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGS COOLER THAN TODAY IN SWRN IDAHO AND SRN MALHEUR COUNTY. AND ABOUT 10 DEGS COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE NORTH. ENSEMBLES AND THE EC AND GFS ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN KEEPING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
RIDGING WILL REMAIN WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING 800MB CAP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. BESIDES THE LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS. RIDGING WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
102 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.
138 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO COASTAL WATERS. EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FL PANHANDLE. THE LOW WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OVERNIGHT.
300 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015 DATA ANALYSIS THIS MORNING FEATURES A MID-LEVEL TROUGH/MCV MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MN/CENTRAL IA TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. WILL BE WATCHING THE TROUGH/MCV CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. EXPECTING THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH CHANCES FALLING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS BETTER MOISTURE PUSHES EAST WITH THE TROUGH.
AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE LOWER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO BE WEAK. THE LOWER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE KEYS IS SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD.
139 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THIS WEEK.
305 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH IS NOTED ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND MONSOONAL FETCH IS LOCATED TO OUR WEST. AS AN UA RIDGE STRETCHED FROM SW TO NE PREVAILED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING.
250 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE REGION BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE REGION. VALLEY FOG WILL BE LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS THE LAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THE REGION BY LATE EVENING.
335 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THIS WEEK.
/ISSUED 951 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015/ AS WEAK RIDGE BEGINS TO LOSE INFLUENCE AND A WEAK GULF LOW WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE CREEPS NORTHWARD FROM NORTH FL. /ISSUED 814 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015/ CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH GA AND FLORIDA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS JUST OFF THE GULF COAST OF FL. MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FL AND IS STILL HELPING TO KEEP PRECIP TO A MINIMUM AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM.
307 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015 UPPER RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY. MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
353 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015 THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS THE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO THE WEATHER ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
OVERALL PATTERN FEATURES AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE CONUS, MEANWHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY ROUND THE APEX OF THE RIDGE, SLIDING JUST NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WILL GO DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY HOWEVER WILL BEGIN TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR FAR NE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY, LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA. OUR NE SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER INFLUENCE FROM NEAR THE UPPER LOW SO MORE OPTIMISIC THAT DENSE FOG WILL NOT FORM THERE. WEDNESDAY HIGHS SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY, SO WILL GO WITH AND 88 TO 93 RANGE.
303 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT DROPPED INTO SOUTH TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND IS NOW ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST NEAR GALVESTON. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE BACK TO THE WEST BEFORE GETTING ABSORBED IN THE FLOW BUT ADDITIONAL SUPPORT WILL BE IN THE REGION AND THE CHANCES OF RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR THOSE LOOKING FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
319 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015 A WEAKNESS AT 500MB OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS INCREASING AS A DIGGING LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST.
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST THAT WILL BE MOVING INLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS EXPECTED TO PULL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
NONDESCRIPT PATTERN AND THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS WITH TIME. THIS PUTS OUR NRN FORECAST AREA UNDER THE HIGHEST POPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WILL BACK OFF SLIGHTLY GIVEN THE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS LIKELY TO START SPILLING IN HERE LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
637 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. WHILE A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR MOVES OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND SETS UP A BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR OVER FAR SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THEN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE RELATIVELY COOLER AIR AND ALSO TERRAIN EFFECTS COULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL MONTANA.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL SHOWING ITS INFLUENCE. ESPECIALLY THE RIDGE TOPS.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S SUPPORTING SOME DECENT SBCAPE PER SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS DESPITE VERY POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT. WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN OUR SOUTH CLOSER TO THE HEIGHT ANOMALY AND ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW FROM MORNING CONVECTION. HIGHS TOMORROW EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S ONCE AGAIN.
A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINS BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE BIG BEND REGION AND AN ELONGATED AND WEAKENING MID-TO-UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT EXTENDS FROM W AR TO THE SE TX GULF COAST. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT RETROGRADES WEST ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER W TX INTO OK.
THE UPPER LOW HEIGHT CENTER APPEARS TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH ON THURSDAY. BUT CENTERED OFF THE LOWER TX COAST.
416 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WERE REPRESENTED BY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING.
103 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER WEDNESDAY.
MORE THAN LIKELY THIS IS FOG FROM THE VALLEYS WHICH WITH A SLIGHT WIND IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A COOL AND CLEAR NIGHT WAS FELT ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. GIVEN THE LOWER DEW POINTS COMPARED TO THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INITIALLY BE PRESENT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS. WITH TROUGHS ON EITHER SIDE. THE JKL FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER NW FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND ONE OF THE TROUGHS. CONVECTIVE PRECIP CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.
WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NEAR THE LAKE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. AND TROF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE TO THE NORTH NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO RECEIVE MEANINGFUL RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST METRO AREAS TODAY. WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE TODAY.
1002 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
1102 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES SUNDAY EVENING WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE EVENING THAT AREA.
1218 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.
1045 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BUT AFTERNOON DEW POINTS DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S WILL FEEL SLIGHTLY MORE TOLERABLE THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. TENNESSEE WITH A RELATIVELY DRY, SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR MASS IN PLACE.
WITH STRONG HEATING ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH MOST LOCALES ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AS OF 16Z. ALTHOUGH THE 850MB TEMP IS ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THIS HAS RESULTED IN 16Z TEMPS ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO ACROSS MOST AREAS. WITH H850 RIDGING EXPECTED TO LINGER OVERHEAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG HEATING AND THE DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE STOUT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND MID- SOUTH REGION.
THE SKIES ARE TOTALLY CLEAR OVER THESE COOLER WATERS AS WELL AND THE CLOUD GRIDS HV BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT.
1005 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR VICINITY ON SUNDAY.
BUT WITH LIMITED CAPE AND SOME DRY AIR THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS. SHORT TERM UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON) - THE TROUGH WILL STALL OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO GENTLE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST DUE TO A TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA.
545 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS WITH ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND WEAK WAVES CIRCULATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE UPPER HIGH AIDED IN SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WE'VE BEEN ACCUSTOMED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE WITH A CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE FLANKED BY TROUGHS TO THE WEST AND EAST.
734 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WILL ENSURE DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND SUNDAY.
A DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND. MAINTAINING A BIT COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TODAY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH KEEPING RATHER MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE MONSOONAL PLUME COMBINES WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
1119 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BRING AN ONSHORE WIND AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
637 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015 VFR with few clouds under the upper ridge.
1040 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. THIS WILL BE REPLACED BY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM NORTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH.
926 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.
TEMPS WERE IN THE LOW/MID 80S ALREADY WITH LOW/MID 70 DEW PTS. THUS ADVERTISED ISOLATED TSTORMS FOR ALL AREAS TODAY EXCEPT FOR OUR FL ZONES ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR WERE MORE SCATTERED TSTORMS ARE LIKELY AND FEW STRONGER CELLS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD FORM DURING PEAK HEATING. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S ACROSS SE GA TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NE FL WERE MORE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP IS EXPECTED. BREEZY ONSHORE WILL KEEP THE COAST COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S. COMBINED THE GA WATERS WITH THE FL WATERS N OF ST AUGUSTINE WHERE NE WINDS WILL NEAR 15-20 KTS TODAY TRAILING THE COLD FRONT AND ADVERTISED SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION.
740 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 345 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/ HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM SUMMER DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UNDER A WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.
WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR AND ALONG THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER WITH AN ATTENDANT TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A SURFACE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
STRONG TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST IS APPROACHING. AND HAVE INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN IN OREGON TODAY.
THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL BE QUITE MOIST. 87 /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/ DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINAS TO FLORIDA. A FAIRLY SHARP 500 MB RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
TENNESSEE WITH A RELATIVELY DRY, SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR MASS IN PLACE.