Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Not as cool tonight with lows ranging from the upper 50s over parts of NE Alabama and the adjacent Cumberland Plateau of southern middle Tennessee, to the low/mid 60s over our western areas.
1241 PM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021 Another quiet night across the region with high pressure in control. Under mostly clear skies, temperatures at 1 am ranged from the lower 50s to the lower 60s. High pressure budges east more into the Great Lakes region as mid- level ridge of high pressure builds directly overhead. This will provide another dry and slightly warmer day under ample sunshine. Right now, it appears the highest threat for this will be generally be along and south of I-90.
Previous discussion: Cold front is currently moving through NE Montana early this morning turning gusty SE winds into gusty NW winds. An upper low will move into Alberta this morning which will push upper ridge to the east. Much cooler temperatures will move into the forecast area today with highs between 75 and 85. The upper low will move through Saskatchewan and Manitoba on Thursday keeping a dry zonal flow aloft over Montana.
753 PM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021 Cool and dry high pressure will build in from the northwest through Thursday, as a large upper level trough settles over the East Coast.
240 PM PDT Wed Jun 16 2021 Widespread triple digit heat expected for the lower elevations into the weekend. High pressure over the Four Corners will remain the dominant feature and expand even more into our region. With the higher daytime temperatures, and limited opportunities to cool off at night, overnight lows are forecast to range from the mid 60s to low 70s for the Valley, the upper 60s to the mid 70s for the foothills, and the 50s to the upper 60s for the mountains.
High pressure is currently sitting over the region leading to mostly clear skies and light, variable winds. A switch to a more southerly flow tomorrow will bring back warmer temperatures, with highs expected to reach the upper 80s to low 90s.
753 PM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021 High pressure will provide seasonable and dry weather through Thursday.
635 PM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021 Today: Not a lot has changed with a mid to upper level ridge remaining firmly in place over the southwest United States.
800 PM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021 High pressure will linger over the area into Thursday.
/00Z TAFS/ No ceilings are forecast over the next 24-30 hours with high pressure in control aloft. Winds are expected to be mainly less than 12 knots, with the higher speeds expected in the afternoon hours and directions mainly ESE. Another relatively dry and hot day is forecast for Thursday with highs in the lower 90s across the Hill Country to near 100 across the southwest counties.
Winds will begin to turn more southerly tonight into Thursday morning as the mid level ridge builds in a little more. Warmer 850mb temps move in Thursday and we expect high temps to be 1-3 degrees warmer than today with middle 90s likely for highs.
Winds will be generally be light and variable as high pressure dominates.
955 PM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021 High pressure will linger over the area into Thursday.
A strong ridge of high pressure will result in excessive heat into this weekend. This high pressure centered over the four corners region will help more mid-level moisture to increase across the area with the prospects of daily isolated mainly dry thunderstorms.
707 PM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021 VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period as high pressure and a very dry airmass sustain clear skies. * None Pleasant conditions abound resulting from established 304-308 Kt layer anticyclone. The central CONUS ridge axis will flatten through the upper Midwest on Thursday as a more energetic westerly jet establishes between a closed low over the Canadian Prairies and broad 594 dam H5 ridge across the Four Corners. Temps will be nearly 10F warmer Thursday aided by near-surface southwest flow/WAA and expanding H8 thicknesses. A bit of uncertainty with how far east the H8 thermal gradient migrates east on Thursday, but can expect highs at least in the low, if not mid, 80s.
1049 PM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021 A cold front will move through tonight, followed by high pressure late into the week. Tonight: Few showers and/or isolated thunderstorm remain possible for the next couple hours, mainly near the I-95 corridor across southeast Georgia where weak low pressure promotes a light onshore wind and moisture convergence north of a stalled front positioned offshore and to the south. Clearing skies and light winds will promote a favorable radiational cooling setup while additional cooling is possible late as a dry cold front approaches from the north-northwest and eventually shifts into southeast Georgia and offshore around daybreak. Winds will remain light during fropa, but should turn north-northwest as high pressure spreads across the area behind this feature.
821 PM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021 Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this evening, as high pressure continues to build into the region from the north.
The warming trend will continue, with highs 5-10 degrees warmer than today (around 10 degrees above normal).
The persistent weak troughing over central Florida will push southward into southern Florida Thursday, as a large, stronger upper-level trough digs along the east coast of the US and drifts into the western Atlantic. Southwesterly flow will continue thanks to the surface western Atlantic ridge axis. A few showers and storms lingering into the evening hours; then, dry conditions expected overnight, with lows in the low to mid-70s. Included VCSH for KLEE, KDAB, KSFB overnight for scattered activity as trough aloft approaches the area from the NW. The trough that has been present over the past couple of days will push southward into south Florida Thursday, allowing for the overall coverage of showers and storms to decrease.
1029 PM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021 An upper-level composite analysis this evening reveals a long-wave trough from eastern Canada to the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, and a deep subtropical ridge extending from the western North Atlantic to the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
/NEW/ /Through Thursday Night/ Subsidence associated with a mid level ridge centered over the Four Corners will continue to provide seasonably warm and quiet weather to North and Central Texas through tomorrow night.
843 PM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021 A cold front will move through tonight, followed by high pressure late into the week. A dry cold front will then shift across the area during the second half of the night, turning light onshore winds more northwest in its wake. Skies are expected to clear by midnight, especially after fropa occurs, setting up a favorable radiational cooling scenario as high pressure spreads across the region while winds remain light.
944 PM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021 Cool and dry high pressure will build in from the northwest through Thursday, as a large upper level trough settles over the East Coast.
530 PM MDT Wed Jun 16 2021 The upper-level ridge that has been responsible for the record setting heat will begin to flatten to more zonal flow behind a weak, dry cold front that is slowly making its way through the area.
618 PM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021 Cold front is currently pushing through the far southeast potion of the forecast area. Expect winds to diminish fairly quickly this evening with high pressure building over the state and the cold front stalling over South Dakota.
523 PM MDT Wed Jun 16 2021 Upper ridge axis extended from the Dakotas to the Four Corners. Model solutions trend with the evolution of the cold front passage transitioning into more of a stationary front with cooler temperatures compared to previous days but still above normal prior to going into the weekend with zonal to northwest flow.
514 PM MDT Wed Jun 16 2021 Current surface analysis shows cold front now over central SD, with the winds now gradually decreasing across western SD. Upper level analysis shows flattening ridge over the Rockies and Plains as trough moves across central Canada. Skies are mainly sunny with cooler air continuing to filter into the area. Temps range from the 70s over the higher Black Hills to around 100 degrees over south central SD.
146 AM EDT Thu Jun 17 2021 High pressure will linger over the area into Thursday.
This evening through Thursday night The upper-level ridge that has been responsible for the record setting heat will begin to flatten to more zonal flow behind a weak, dry cold front that is slowly making its way through the area.
Cold front is currently pushing through the far southeast potion of the forecast area. Expect winds to diminish fairly quickly this evening with high pressure building over the state and the cold front stalling over South Dakota.
For tonight, expect partly cloud skies with lows in the low to mid 70s.
Otherwise into the lower 90s today with moderate humidity.
A front will progress out of the northeast into the Permian Basin Mon/Tue ushering in cooler temperatures to the region monetarily.
215 AM MDT Thu Jun 17 2021 High pressure will be over the area today. Zonal flow aloft today will turn to the NW tonight with a wave that will bring a weak and dry cold front.
300 AM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 High pressure remains over the Mid-South this morning. The high will begin shifting east today.
Key Messages: 1) Increased ridging with quiet weather, warmer temperatures, and a mostly clear sky today and tonight. Ridging from the surface to aloft will bring warming temperatures today with a mostly sunny, clear sky. Surface ridging will bring a clear sky and light winds tonight with another colder than normal night for most locations across the forecast area.
1151 PM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021 VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period as high pressure and a dry airmass sustain clear skies with only increasing cirrus by Thursday evening. * None Pleasant conditions abound resulting from established 304-308 Kt layer anticyclone. The central CONUS ridge axis will flatten through the upper Midwest on Thursday as a more energetic westerly jet establishes between a closed low over the Canadian Prairies and broad 594 dam H5 ridge across the Four Corners. Temps will be nearly 10F warmer Thursday aided by near-surface southwest flow/WAA and expanding H8 thicknesses. A bit of uncertainty with how far east the H8 thermal gradient migrates east on Thursday, but can expect highs at least in the low, if not mid, 80s.
Highs yesterday were a bit warmer than expected in the western parts of the area, but OK in western IA. Frontal boundary should stretch through northeast NE this afternoon, with slightly cooler air north of the front. Center of the mid tropospheric ridge remained over the Four Corners region, with heights near 600 decameters at 500 mb temps as warm as -5 C. Thermal ridge at 700 mb extended from AZ into the Dakotas. Lows should drop into the 60s across northeast NE, but remain in the lower 70s along and south of I-80.
In the upper levels, a jet streak was analyzed from northwest Montana into southern Manitoba on the northern periphery of a broad Four Corners ridge. At the surface a cold front was placed across eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota. Highs in the low 80s north to upper 80s south are expected.
Aloft, our region is within NNW flow in the mid and upper levels as we sit between a departing trough to our east and a ridge to our west. East of I-65, temps are forecast to bottom out in the low 60s.
1241 AM EDT Thu Jun 17 2021 A cold front will move through tonight, followed by high pressure late into the week. An upstream cold front will move in overnight, but it arrives with limited moisture, poor instability and forcing. High pressure in the Ohio Valley and Midwest will build in behind the front, as it passes through most of the South Carolina forecast area by daybreak. As skies become clear or mostly clear, with light or calm winds, radiational cooling will support lows dropping to the lower and middle 60s far inland, upper 60s and lower 70s along the coastal zones.
Meanwhile, the ridge of high pressure to our south will begin to move north as low pressure disturbance near Bay of Campeche slowly moves northward through the remaining of the work week. 8 inches with the lowest amounts expected across the Nature Coast northward.
256 AM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 Storm potential on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge and the hot temps are the main items of interest today. GOES16 PWAT imagery shows a well-defined north-south corridor of higher deep layer moisture that stretches from MN south to the Ozarks and ArkLaTex, on the eastern side of the mid-level ridge centered over the central/southern Rockies.
Temperatures have recovered into the upper 70s, while dewpoints have recovered into the lower 70s.
(Today and tonight) Hot and dry conditions will persist across the area again today, with high pressure aloft dominating.
1111 PM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021 Today: Not a lot has changed with a mid to upper level ridge remaining firmly in place over the southwest United States.
No update is needed this evening as the forecast remains on track in this quiet and stable pattern of a high pressure ridge over the Great Lakes extending southward and a dry N-NW flow aloft. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 65 92 69 90 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 62 90 68 90 / 0 0 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 85 61 90 67 89 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 54 88 62 88 / 0 0 10 10 20.
345 AM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 The eastern periphery of the Four Corner's upper high will hold sway for yet another day. The stationary upper level high pressure will build more intense heat to our west, but we'll still see above average temps in our region.
VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the forecast period as the area remains under the influence of mid/upper level high pressure centered to our west.
1057 PM MDT Wed Jun 16 2021 Current surface analysis shows cold front now over central SD, with the winds now gradually decreasing across western SD. Upper level analysis shows flattening ridge over the Rockies and Plains as trough moves across central Canada. Skies are mainly sunny with cooler air continuing to filter into the area. Temps range from the 70s over the higher Black Hills to around 100 degrees over south central SD.
215 AM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 Early morning water vapor as of 2 am was showing a vigorous mid- level trough pushing into the Dakotas. This was pushing a surface cold front into MN. That cold front continues to sag southeastward into the area through this afternoon with most models showing cap eventually eroding for what looks to be fairly explosive convective development by early evening.
312 AM EDT Thu Jun 17 2021 Temperatures return to near normal today as a deamplifying ridge over the Plains folds into the Great Lakes region this morning. Thermal ridge axis remains connected to the 596 dam high sitting over the desert Southwest as it folds through SE MI drawing a piece of the 20-30C 850mb airmass eastward into the mid-Mississippi valley. Minimal moisture accompanies this ridge with dewpoints only rising into the upper 40s/low 50s, so pleasant conditions hold on for one last day. This trough further flattens the ridge displacing it toward the east coast allowing height falls to begin working into lower MI.
121 AM EDT Thu Jun 17 2021 High pressure will provide seasonable and dry weather through Thursday.
/NEW/ /Through Thursday Night/ Seasonably warm weather will continue as North and Central Texas remain within the eastern reaches of an upper ridge anchored over the Four Corners region.
1235 AM EDT Thu Jun 17 2021 Cool and dry high pressure will build in from the northwest through Thursday, as a large upper level trough settles over the East Coast.
1047 PM MDT Wed Jun 16 2021 Upper ridge axis extended from the Dakotas to the Four Corners. Model solutions trend with the evolution of the cold front passage transitioning into more of a stationary front with cooler temperatures compared to previous days but still above normal prior to going into the weekend with zonal to northwest flow.
241 AM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 Our recent cooler and drier airmass has already moderated a good bit as temps and dewpoints have come up.
312 AM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 A flattening ridge aloft is helping to keep the radar quiet across central and western Nebraska with a lazy front lingering just off to our southeast. Temperatures aloft are a bit cooler today so don't expect the same blistering heat as yesterday, but still triple digits for Chase, Hayes, and Frontier where a heat advisory will remain in place through this afternoon.
327 AM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 A flattening ridge aloft is helping to keep the radar quiet across central and western Nebraska with a lazy front lingering just off to our southeast. Temperatures aloft are a bit cooler today so don't expect the same blistering heat as yesterday, but still triple digits for Chase, Hayes, Frontier, and mainly southeastern Custer where a heat advisory will remain in place through this afternoon.
(Today and tonight) Hot temperatures continue to be the main story today, with highs expected to reach into the mid 90s across southern and central OK and the low 100s for northern and western OK. For now the chances appear to be very low given the continued influence of upper ridging and warm mid-level temperatures and capped PoPs around 10% or less.
Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this evening, as high pressure continues to build into the region from the north.
149 AM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 Today will be another pleasant and seasonable summer day as we remain wedged between strong ridging aloft to the west and a trough to the east. The upper level trough departs off the Atlantic coast, allowing the ridge to shift eastward.
337 AM EDT Thu Jun 17 2021 Dry high pressure will dominate the weather into the first half of the weekend.
Meanwhile, a weak sfc bndry stretched fm N to S over Wrn AR, where an axis of dewpoints in the lower and mid 70s was noted. Have opted to go with a mention of slight chc PoPs today for now, as some of the high-res model solutions are struggling with convective trends today.
1023 AM EDT Thu Jun 17 2021 High pressure will build over the area through tonight, before moving offshore Friday.
Today will be another pleasant and seasonable summer day as we remain wedged between strong ridging aloft to the west and a trough to the east. The upper level trough departs off the Atlantic coast, allowing the ridge to shift eastward. Height rises will bring high temperatures on Friday into the low 90s.
945 AM EDT Thu Jun 17 2021 Dry high pressure will dominate the weather into the first half of the weekend.
VFR conditions will prevail at all sites through the forecast period as the area remains under the influence of mid level high pressure centered to our west. /Issued 256 AM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021/ Storm potential on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge and the hot temps are the main items of interest today. GOES16 PWAT imagery shows a well-defined north-south corridor of higher deep layer moisture that stretches from MN south to the Ozarks and ArkLaTex, on the eastern side of the mid-level ridge centered over the central/southern Rockies.
433 AM MDT Thu Jun 17 2021 Near-zonal westerly flow is expected today across the northern Great Plains, just north of a strong upper high across the southwestern CONUS.
Upper level trough axis now off the coast. Surface analysis shows drier air across the north Midlands spreading slowly south through the day as a pressure ridge to the north builds south. Will full insolation and some downslope flow, temperatures should modify slightly so went a little warmer than yesterday around 90 degrees most areas. The pressure ridge will shift off the coast tonight and some low level moisture may advect up the Savannah river. Guidance was consistent in the low to mid 60s.
Cool air associated with the ridge brought more chilly conditions (for mid June); last night, with lows ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s. The upper level trough departs off the Atlantic coast, allowing the ridge to shift eastward. Height rises will bring high temperatures on Friday into the low 90s.
Friday - A cold front will follow for Friday, and northwest winds could gusts 25 to 30 mph.
Warmer air will return to the area on the back side of the high pressure system today.
Some of typically warmer spots such as Boys Ranch, Borger, Palo Duro Canyon, Guymon, and Beaver will be up in the 100 to 104 degree range both today and Friday. The upper level ridge over the 4-corners region breaks down ever so slightly to allow a weak disturbance to move across southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas. Another hot weekend is in store with temperatures reaching the high 90s with local hot spots seeing triple digits.
524 AM EDT Thu Jun 17 2021 High pressure will be centered over the region through tonight before drifting east and off the Middle Atlantic Coast on Friday.
Our recent cooler and drier airmass has already moderated a good bit as temps and dewpoints have come up. Dewpoints largely in the lower 60s today will jump into the mid 60s on Friday.
/issued 345 AM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021/ The eastern periphery of the Four Corner's upper high will hold sway for yet another day. The stationary upper level high pressure will build more intense heat to our west, but we'll still see above average temps in our region.
411 AM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 As the upper ridge has flattened, there are some ongoing scattered showers and thunderstorms across north central SD early this morning associated with weak perturbations in the upper flow. Temperatures will be a bit cooler under the flattened ridge, but will remain 5 to 10 degrees above average both today and Friday. An upper trough will trail into South Dakota and west central MN on Friday. The winds will become breezy across the northern tier as the jet strengthens aloft and the thermal gradient tightens in the upper trough.
638 AM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 A flattening ridge aloft is helping to keep the radar quiet across central and western Nebraska with a lazy front lingering just off to our southeast. Temperatures aloft are a bit cooler today so don't expect the same blistering heat as yesterday, but still triple digits for Chase, Hayes, Frontier, and mainly southeastern Custer where a heat advisory will remain in place through this afternoon. Upper trof swings by to our north on Friday but ridging over the western US will help keep us capped so will continue with the dry forecast to close out the workweek as temperatures remain above normal.
230 AM PDT Thu Jun 17 2021 Widespread triple digit heat expected for the lower elevations into the weekend. Strong high pressure centered around the four corners area will bring very hot temperatures today for the interior. A strong thermal belt will keep some of the warmer foothill locations very warm tonight only cooling off into the upper 70s to mid 80s.
Warmer high temps in the mid to upr 80s and abundant sunshine results in afternoon minimum RHs falling to quite low values of 15 to 25 percent. -Showers and storms late tonight/early Friday; gusty winds High amplitude upper ridge over the wrn GrtLks Rgn this morning is quickly flattened later today/tonight in response to a corridor of 100 kts winds moving along the U. Southwesterly low level jet increases to 45 kts tonight, pushing an impressive mid level theta-e ridge into the area with PWATs near 2 inches. This will certainly be a big/abrupt change from today's dry air mass and will support a high probability of much needed rain late tonight as warm front pushes in our direction. Potential for renewed tstm development exists on Friday ahead of southeastward advancing cold front.
Dangerously hot conditions will continue into the weekend as a large area of high pressure remains over the region. Mid-level moisture moving around the ridge will increase the threat for isolated afternoon thunderstorms mainly over the high sierra Thursday and Friday.
643 AM EDT Thu Jun 17 2021 High pressure over the eastern United States will move southeast today through Friday.
2) Max heat indices of 100 to 105 degrees looks likely again tomorrow, with the highest values along and south of the Interstate 70 corridor.