Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Sfc ridging will sink south from the Great Lakes through the period which will provide a persistent E-NE flow across the state. Aloft, H500 ridging will remain in place over the Central Plains with a deep trough across the eastern US.
Storms today will tend to favor the higher terrain with flash flooding once again possible. While the low level wind fields were weak, 5 knots of northerly winds below 500mb combined with storm scale prorogation along outflow was sufficient to drift storms into the Vegas Valley. With the expectation of slow moving storms favoring the higher terrain, limited the Flash Flood Watch today to mainly the higher elevation zones of Clark, eastern San Bernardino, Mohave, and Lincoln Counties.
306 AM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Slightly cooler today as sunshine gets filtered by increasing high clouds. Weather conditions then turn warmer, breezy, and more humid this weekend ahead of a frontal system. Rain chances return Saturday evening as the cold front moves into central Illinois. By the time it makes its way into northern Illinois, it should dissipate to a few sprinkles, but even that may be a stretch given the low- level dry air in place.
Besides isolated shower possible this morning, otherwises drier and cooler conditions. For tonight, drier air and cooler temperatures. Calm winds and relatively warmer lake/stream water will produce some steam fog.
The region will be between high pressure to the south, and an elongated cold front stalled just to the north Today. Lows Tonight inland will trend in the lower 70s, with mid 70s coast.
241 AM MDT Fri Aug 12 2022 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Hot high pressure lies anchored over the Four Corners with a ridge jutting north out of the airmass over western Montana and the Frontrange of Canada. Inside this airmass monsoonal moisture is building up and moving up inside the ridge where it generates a potential for lift aloft in nocturnal cells. Today: Hot high pressure will prevent most storm development except for the central Montana mountains in the afternoon hours. Tonight: Central Montana showers and thunderstorms will latch onto the monsoonal moisture overnight and move ac ross the high plains of northeast Montana overnight.
424 AM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Weak cold front is currently situated across northern Georgia. Slightly cooler than normal temperatures are expected tonight, with lows ranging from the lower 60s in the mountains to middle and upper 60s across the atl metro. Upper pattern defined by persistent, high- amplitude trough over the eastern CONUS with moderately-strong NNWly flow aloft for this time of year over the SE states.
1226 AM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022 (This afternoon through Friday night) High pressure over Central CONUS will dominate the weather pattern for the short term period. Expect similar conditions Friday with afternoon temps maybe a degree or two warmer as the high pressure shifts slightly southward. Temperatures overnight will be mild in the low to mid 70s.
A primarily VFR forecast with a cold front moving through the region this evening and overnight. Some weak short wave energy will be diving southeast and deepening the upper level eastern trough later tonight/early Friday, but looks too moisture starved to bring anything more than a temporary uptick in clouds.
Highs today will be a couple degrees cooler than yesterday, mainly in the middle and upper 70s.
312 AM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Dry and cooler weather is expected through Saturday night under high pressure.
Guidance continues to show the highest probabilities of 1/4 of an inch of precip along a corridor from Devils Lake toward Fargo. Guidance continues to suggest a corridor from Devils Lake Basin toward Fargo seeing the highest precipitation chances.
300 AM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Discussion/Marine High pressure will continue to build in today and bring fair wx with seasonable high temps in the mid to upper 70's. The low pressure system heading ese toward our area tonight will cause clouds to increase.
Locally high pressure was in firm control, resulting in plenty of sunshine and another dry day with of 90 degree temperatures. Subsidence from the ridge should limit cloud cover and help keep temperatures elevated.
359 AM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Temperatures early this morning have already fallen into the low 40s across the central interior portions of the UP under clear skies and calm winds. Clouds spilling over the ridge will, however, inhibit radiational cooling and thus a frost threat to the west this morning. So, with plenty of sunshine early in the day and southerly winds, highs will be able to top off in the low to mid 70s. Broad ridging across the Rockies will lead to the UP being on the eastern periphery of this ridge - which will allow a prolonged period of predominately NW flow. Starting tonight, some showers and thunderstorms will be possible as a wave drops SE riding along the ridge axis.
Gusty winds can be expected tomorrow evening and Saturday, with higher gusts expected across the High Plains and Rocky Mountain Front regions. - Pierce /ISSUED 210 PM MDT Thu Aug 11 2022/ Visible satellite shows mostly clear skies across our region as clouds continue moving east and upper level ridging continues. An upper level trough continues to develop today and tomorrow off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and Canada with monsoon related moisture associated with weak disturbances surrounding the upper level ridge over WY/CO.
A note on tides: super high tides this morning (watch for clearance under fixed bridges) will give way to super low tides late this afternoon, similar to yesterday's tides. An upper-level trough will be positioned along and just off the Eastern Seaboard through the weekend.
557 AM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022 (Today and tonight) Today and tonight, an upper level ridge will be centered across the Central Plains, while at the surface, high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west and northwest will continue to bring easterly surface flow to the region.
Where showers have moved over the island chain, temperatures have fallen by several degrees into the lower 80s. A mid and upper level trough is situated along almost the entirety of the Eastern Seaboard this morning. This is acting on the subtropical ridge, weakening it and shoving it eastward out across the Atlantic. The aforementioned trough will generally hold in place through the weekend, leaving the Keys in a nebulous pressure field.
The high pressure system currently centered over the Oklahoma Panhandle is looking to shift westward toward the Pacific Northwest. This transition will be caused by a deepening trough on the east coast.
Otherwise, early morning surface analysis had a nearly stationary cold front along and just north of Highway 82. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed north to northeast flow across our region as our CWA remains between a large mid level high centered over the central Plains and upper level troughing over the Ohio valley. The drier air north of the boundary will allow temperatures to bottom out cooler than normal in the upper 60s across our northern zones Saturday. Despite the boundary sagging across the area today, temperatures are expected to top out closer to normal in the lower 90s across the northern half of the CWA and cooler than normal in the south where the greatest coverage of storms are expected.
/Issued 424 AM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022/ Weak cold front is currently situated across northern Georgia. Slightly cooler than normal temperatures are expected tonight, with lows ranging from the lower 60s in the mountains to middle and upper 60s across the atl metro. Upper pattern defined by persistent, high- amplitude trough over the eastern CONUS with moderately-strong NNWly flow aloft for this time of year over the SE states.
635 AM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022 (Today through Saturday) Concur with the GFS/ECMWF/NAM that the slowly westward moving inverted upper trough/N-S axis will remain over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico today, move over the coastal waters tonight and move over the CWA Saturday.
544 AM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022 (Today) The combined influence of sfc ridging extending across the local region and high pressure aloft will lead to a dry and warm conditions.
535 AM MDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Water vapor imagery showing the ridge of high pressure has shifted a bit east, now centered over western Nebraska and Eastern Colorado. Saturday, the broad ridge will remain in place over the western and central CONUS, centered over western Kansas, promoting persistent hot and mostly dry weather for northeast Colorado. There should be enough moisture and instability for scattered to widespread showers in the high country in the afternoon and evening.
TFJ MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Hot high pressure lies anchored over the Four Corners with a ridge jutting north out of the airmass over western Montana and the Frontrange of Canada. Inside this airmass monsoonal moisture is building up and moving up inside the ridge where it generates a potential for lift aloft in nocturnal cells. Today: Hot high pressure will prevent most storm development except for the central Montana mountains in the afternoon hours. Tonight: Central Montana showers and thunderstorms will latch onto the monsoonal moisture overnight and move across the high plains of northeast Montana overnight.
739 AM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Temperatures early this morning have already fallen into the low 40s across the central interior portions of the UP under clear skies and calm winds. Clouds spilling over the ridge will, however, inhibit radiational cooling and thus a frost threat to the west this morning. So, with plenty of sunshine early in the day and southerly winds, highs will be able to top off in the low to mid 70s. Broad ridging across the Rockies will lead to the UP being on the eastern periphery of this ridge - which will allow a prolonged period of predominately NW flow. Starting tonight, some showers and thunderstorms will be possible as a wave drops SE riding along the ridge axis.
735 AM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Dry weather is expected through Saturday night under high pressure.
526 AM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Dry weather is expected through Saturday night under high pressure.
Meanwhile, high pressure builds into the northern Great Basin which could shift the steering flow to a more north or northeasterly direction for a few days, a favorable pattern for thunderstorm complexes moving into the lower deserts.
1004 AM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022 High pressure will continue to ridge across the area with the ridge axis to the north today as a frontal boundary stalls across the deep south. The upper trough with that system will shift to just offshore of the eastern US coast and then linger there for several days, with the surface boundary slowly shifting south into the weekend.
351 AM PDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Temperatures will remain near average today then trend slightly warmer through the weekend.
948 AM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022 A mix of sun and clouds are around to start the morning with temperatures rising into the low and mid 80s.
This will generally continue through the period, as the upper ridge and dry air remain in place today.
521 AM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Slightly cooler today as sunshine gets filtered by increasing high clouds. Weather conditions then turn warmer, breezy, and more humid this weekend ahead of a frontal system. Rain chances return Saturday evening as the cold front moves into central Illinois. By the time it makes its way into northern Illinois, it should dissipate to a few sprinkles, but even that may be a stretch given the low- level dry air in place.
(Today through Saturday) Concur with the GFS/ECMWF/NAM that the slowly westward moving inverted upper trough/N-S axis will remain over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico today, move over the coastal waters tonight and move over the CWA Saturday.
541 AM MDT Fri Aug 12 2022 The CWA resides along the eastern flank of the strong monsoonal plume, which continues to stream around the western periphery of high pressure. Though, a subtle shift is expected in the high's center, sliding to the south and east. However, stirring winds follow the clockwise rotation of the high, shifting storm motion to the north- northeast as you move closer the the Wyoming border.
725 AM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Aviation High pressure will continue to build in today and bring fair wx with seasonable high temps in the mid to upper 70's. The low pressure system heading ese toward our area tonight will cause clouds to increase.
Look for cooler temperatures and mostly cloudy skies.
A chance for precipitation will return through the second half of the weekend though as a low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes region. Morning sounding observed very dry conditions through the lower and middle troposphere. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 50s with highs on Saturday the upper 70s to lower 80s. An upper trough/closed upper low parked over the Eastern CONUS will dictate weather conditions through this period.
High pressure at the surface was present over the Great Lakes, while a cold front entering northern TN will drop south through the day. Northerly flow will begin to advect drier air into the region, lowering dew points into the lower to middle 60s.
717 AM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022 High pressure weakens and migrates southeast today causing light northerly winds to veer easterly this evening. With the lower dew points and light winds, expect temps to fall lower than the NBM numbers, closer to MET/MAV guidance, by around midnight before stabilizing or even rising as the high cloud moves over the region later tonight. Convection fires along an elevated warm front from Northeast WI to western Lower Michigan later tonight and into Saturday.
The monsoon ridge is generally centered over eastern Colorado and it will gradually sag toward the southeast over the coming days.
348 AM MDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Water vapor imagery showing the ridge of high pressure has shifted a bit east, now centered over western Nebraska and Eastern Colorado. Saturday, the broad ridge will remain in place over the western and central CONUS, centered over western Kansas, promoting persistent hot and mostly dry weather for northeast Colorado. There should be enough moisture and instability for scattered to widespread showers in the high country in the afternoon and evening.
With large scale convergence aloft over the Panhandles under the influence of the mid level high pressure, precipitation chances will be near zero. Winds will not be too much of a concern since steering pattern aloft remains very weak in-conjunction with the Panhandles near the center of the high pressure system by Saturday. High temperatures today will range from the lower to upper 90s. High temperatures tomorrow will be a bit warmer as the high moves into our region with some locations, especially in the northeastern Panhandles topping out near or at 100 degrees.
1122 AM PDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Moisture rounding a low pressure system in the eastern Pacific will keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast at times early Saturday morning. A cold front passage on Saturday will result in breezier winds for the afternoon and usher in much drier air.
354 PM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022 High pressure exiting the region is allowing for a disturbance to become increasingly impactful to the U. This is expected to slowly but increasingly fill in over the next few hours, courtesy of sitting on the periphery of the Plains' ridge.
244 PM MDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Current cumulus development over the high mountain terrain will morph into isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon, mostly focused across northern portions of the Front Range. Temperatures are by and large running a few degrees lower compared to the same time yesterday, but should still climb into the low to mid 90's for most of the urban corridor. For tomorrow, the overall synoptic pattern will remain relatively unchanged, with high pressure persisting overhead. Highs once again should climb into the low to mid 90's for the lower elevations. Forecast soundings indicate a slight increase in PW values over the high country, peaking between 0. The upper ridge is still centered around southeast Colorado on Saturday night.
4" PWATs and massive dry layer to be overcome as series of weak waves drop southeast riding the periphery of the ridge. Models still varying on final trajectory of the complex as warm front will begin to surge north and LLJ will remain focused into E WI and N Lwr MI Sat AM before beginning to weaken and slowly shift south.
238 PM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Hot and dry weather will be the story for the next few days as a upper ridge of high pressure remains centered over the plains.
251 PM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022 High pressure will drift east across the region providing fair and dry weather through the weekend.
241 PM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Canadian high pressure will build overhead this afternoon through Saturday.
205 PM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022 High pressure will drift east across the region providing fair and dry weather through the weekend.
McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 85 66 89 70 / 0 10 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 85 65 87 69 / 0 10 0 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 61 85 64 86 68 / 0 0 0 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 83 60 82 64 / 0 0 0 30 40.
The last lingering showers in advance of a weak low pressure center over eastern SD will continue drifting SE and out of the WFO MPX coverage area this afternoon. As the low pressure center slides east over southern MN this evening through tonight, a few light showers are possible but by and large a dry overnight period is expected for the vast majority of the coverage area is expected. High pressure from central Canada will drop southward into the Dakotas and Upper Midwest Saturday through Saturday night, just enough to keep the aforementioned low pressure center moving eastward and preventing any additional weak lows over the Rockies from approaching.
252 PM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Cooler and dry conditions will continue tonight, along with some high clouds. Conditions then turn warmer, breezy, and more humid this weekend ahead of a frontal system. Rain chances return Saturday evening in the northeast and east as a cold front moves into central Illinois. Clouds will hang around for a while this evening, but should scatter out later in the evening as high pressure trys to build back into the area later tonight. The warm front associated with this system will bring showers and possible storms to the northeast and eastern parts of the CWA tomorrow night. The weather system that moves into the area Sat-Sat night will have a cold front move through as well.
(This evening through Saturday) Mid-level ridging will remain over the Central/Southern Plains through tomorrow. A slight increase in moisture will help to keep overnight lows a few degrees warmer than earlier in the week.
125 PM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Aviation High pressure will continue to build in today and bring fair wx with seasonable high temps in the mid to upper 70's. The low pressure system heading ese toward our area tonight will cause clouds to increase.
234 PM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022 The cold frontal boundary has exited the region as of a couple hours ago; however, lingering cloud cover will continue to exist along and behind the front through the afternoon. Cold air advection behind the front will exist keeping the forecast area cooler today and tomorrow.
winds from the north will bring drier air to the low and mid levels limiting chances for development.
307 PM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022 High pressure will continue to ridge across the area with the ridge axis to the north into the weekend, keeping a lighter SE wind flow in place with an afternoon sea breeze. The ridge axis will be shifting south through the period though as a frontal boundary sags south into the area.
A similar forecast is in store for Saturday with isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorm in southern sections, with upper level high pressure suppressing any development to the north. Highs of 95 to 100 degrees again are expected Saturday, with lows tonight in the lower to mid 70s.
251 PM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Skies remain sunny across the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the lower 80s to lower 90s. Currently, a large area of high pressure covers much of the Great Lakes region.
355 PM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022 The cold frontal boundary has exited the region as of a couple hours ago; however, lingering cloud cover will continue to exist along and behind the front through the afternoon. Cold air advection behind the front will exist keeping the forecast area cooler today and tomorrow.
Dew points have dropped into the middle to upper 60s, and are forecast to drop into the lower 60s tonight (with a upper 50s possible in a few spots in southern TN and far northeast AL. Saturday morning low temperatures will be in the lower 60s.
1155 AM MDT Fri Aug 12 2022 The CWA resides along the eastern flank of the strong monsoonal plume, which continues to stream around the western periphery of high pressure. Though, a subtle shift is expected in the high's center, sliding to the south and east. However, stirring winds follow the clockwise rotation of the high, shifting storm motion to the north- northeast as you move closer the the Wyoming border.
236 PM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Strong ridging aloft will maintain itself across the region through the weekend.
The main story is the prominent ridge aloft bringing us hot and dry weather through the weekend.
126 PM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Water Vapor imagery currently shows a stout upper ridge over the central CONUS. The center of the upper ridge will expand southward overnight through tomorrow afternoon.
(This afternoon through Saturday night) High pressure centered over CO/KS/OK border will keep us near to slightly above normal today with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Rain chances will decrease substantially this afternoon, confined only to the higher terrain, as drier air pushes southward into the CWA. Overnight temperatures will continue in the low to mid 70s thanks to light winds and clearing skies.
Expect storms to significantly increase in coverage today, first over the high country, before spilling over into the low country. The high pressure system currently centered over the Oklahoma Panhandle is looking to shift westward toward the Pacific Northwest. This transition will be caused by a deepening trough on the east coast.
1239 PM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022 (Today and tonight) Today and tonight, an upper level ridge will be centered across the Central Plains, while at the surface, high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west and northwest will continue to bring easterly surface flow to the region.
The stationary front is lingering near our southern CWA and north of this low stratus is lingering. This cloud layer hasn't been handled well, but there should be a trend with drier air arriving as surface ridging builds southeast.
1243 PM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Slightly cooler today as sunshine gets filtered by increasing high clouds. Weather conditions then turn warmer, breezy, and more humid this weekend ahead of a frontal system. Rain chances return Saturday evening as the cold front moves into central Illinois. By the time it makes its way into northern Illinois, it should dissipate to a few sprinkles, but even that may be a stretch given the low- level dry air in place.
Attention will then shift to the next area of showers and storms that will develop along/ahead of a developing low pressure system. Highs will range from the mid 60s over the far north to the 70s closer to the warm front across the south.
221 PM MDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Latest satellite and upper air analysis show a ridge centered over the Central High Plains. A trough was seen with the surface observations to the northwest of the forecast area. Saturday southeast winds allows WAA to continue, allowing even warmer temperatures into the forecast area. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than today as a result.