Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper low over northern Utah is slowly swinging eastward through the central Rockies. Other eastern areas will also see precipitation as isentropic lift in the low to mid levels intensifies. The upper low remains rather stubborn and slow to move out. We cannot rule out some precipitation over the east and south even into Sunday night as the upper trough axis will be moving over the area. We are inclined to cancel it with the early morning package as additional snow fall of an inch or two in the high country will be limited and not likely render any additional impacts.
Then Winter Weather/Turning Cold Later This Forecast concerns in the short term will be fog, clouds, and warmer temperatures, then attention turns to the developing storm system and how much snow and wind it will pack. The mid tropospheric pattern has a trough off the west coast and a ridge over the Rockies. This pattern is a mild one for us and with just a few high clouds, temperatures ranged from the lower 40s to the lower 50s at 3pm. After the warm temperatures today and melting of snow, look for some patchy fog to develop, however as the low level flow increases to 30 to 45kts. Tuesday night temperatures are forecast to remain above freezing for parts of the forecast area. Some of the forecast soundings show stratus increasing with the low level moisture, while others keep it more mixed.
Dense fog retreated from the Upper Treasure Valley overnight, and was slowly decreasing in the Lower Treasure Valley this morning. However, we will continue a dense fog advisory for the Lower Treasure Valley and Upper Weiser River area until 11 AM MST. There will also be a slight chance of freezing rain in the colder low valleys tonight, but should become all rain Tuesday morning. Fog/low clouds will continue in the Lower Treasure Valley this morning affecting KEUL and KONO. An upper trough advancing into the western U. A slight chance of freezing rain exists in basins of northern Harney and Malheur county and far southwest Baker county Tuesday morning, though confidence on this is low as current inversion is quite shallow and may well mix out with onset of precipitation.
Looking at some road sensors temps, many are near freezing in IN. This is the area most likely to see temps fall below freezing before daybreak. However, confidence is not high on how far temps will fall and most areas should see air temps stay just above freezing. Some travel problems are still expected this morning, though ice accumulations will remain on the lower side - a few hundredths or less. Tuesday looks to be dry and warmer with highs in the 40s.
343 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2018 Current surface analysis places ridge over the northern plains with a low over British Columbia. Upper level analysis places broad ridge over the Rockies nudging into the plains, with trough off the west coast. On Tuesday, quiet weather expected through the day as ridge pushes off to the east and west-coast trough moves well onshore through the day, and into the Rockies overnight. Trough continues its western progression as cold front dives through the area. Precipitation spreads over the area with snow mainly behind the front, and a freezing precipitation mix possible mainly along and ahead of the front (which would be in the morning).
1009 AM MST Mon Jan 8 2018 Water vapor shows large amplitude ridge over the western CONUS with strong trof digging over the eastern Pacific. At the surface, lee trof is advancing through ern WY. Upper ridge will dominate today and Tuesday with highs in the 40s/50s both days, about 15-20F above average, and dry conditions.
There is some potential for freezing rain in this area due to the warm temps aloft. The main upper trough currently over the Great Lakes will move off to the east today, with northwesterly flow aloft behind it. The models are all in pretty good agreement on bringing in some slightly colder air into mainly our northeastern counties as a backdoor cold front.
245 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2018 WV imagery shows an upper-lvl ridge moving into the central CONUS, courtesy of a trough approaching the west coast. The Pac trough is still forecast to make landfall at central CA at around 18Z Tue, and quickly translate to the Panhandles by 00Z Thu. Tuesday, as SW flow aloft develops over the region ahead of the trough, leeside troughing on the Front Range will veer sfc flow to the SW.
/issued 1025 AM EST Mon Jan 8 2018/ High pressure will continue to ridge across the area today as a low pressure system and cold front approaches the state from the WNW.
143 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2018 There will be increased moisture and a moderation in temperature associated with an onshore flow between the ridge shifting off the East Coast and low pressure moving from the Lower Mississippi River Valley into the northeast Gulf of Mexico through Tuesday. Upper energy over the lower Miss valley will dig SE into the Gulf of Mexico and cut off. Current surface wet bulb temps have risen above freezing, precluding freezing rain concerns. Temperatures tonight finally set to remain at or above freezing for entire cwa. Upper flow begins to flatten out across the cwa as the main upper low cuts off and moves into the northern Gulf of Mexico through the night. Tuesday and Tuesday night, best chance for rainfall will be across the extreme southern cwa, closer to the upper low moving through Florida.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 37 53 44 59 / 40 10 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 36 52 40 60 / 40 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 36 52 41 59 / 50 10 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 35 50 36 58 / 60 10 10 10 NC.
402 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2018 A light wintry mix is expected to impact the southern tier and Susquehanna Valley into early evening, with light snow elsewhere as a weak cold front passes through.
1232 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2018 Clouds and a slow warm up after this low pressure system passes Tuesday morning.
223 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2018 A low pressure system brings wintry precipitation into tonight. Much warmer midweek, but cooling back down for the weekend. So canceled WSW, were either precipitation as ended or where warm mixing has occurred negating any further possibilities for freezing rain.
Mesoscale models, HRRR and NAM12, show light rain moving north with a warm front into central Oregon this afternoon and then into the southern Blue Mountains by late afternoon.
Have extended the winter weather advisory until 1 PM to account for lingering patches of freezing rain and also lower dew points. Temperatures across much of area along and north of a Newnan to Covington to Athens line are near or below freezing currently. This dry layer will indicates that initially wintry precip may briefly fall as sleet, however for the most part, profiles - assuming precip can reach the ground - support a rain or freezing rain through 18Z. After 16Z temperatures will support freezing rain mainly over portions of northeast GA. Overnight lows tomorrow should be above freezing at most locations with temperatures moderating into the 50s by tomorrow afternoon. A rather spring-like pattern develops through the middle and latter portions of the workweek as a deep/ sharp upper trough digs into the middle of the country.
1101 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2018 The upper level trough that brought the round precipitation to the region will exit to the east today. Temperatures will fall to near freezing in southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri where the sky will clear as well as the colder valleys of eastern Ozarks. The warming trend will continue into mid week as the southerly flow strengthens ahead of a pronounced upper level trough coming across Rockies.
Clouds fcst to hold their ground and even build back wwd tonight, as sly flow begins to return at the sfc and swly flow aloft sets up ahead of an upper trof. Upper trof just off of the CA coast will move onshore early Tue, bringing that above-mentioned swly flow aloft as it approaches our region. Trof to bring shwrs by late Wed into Thu, with more widespread shwrs expected by Thu aftn as the associated cold front moves through. The latest runs, however, appear to be much warmer and quicker with the dry-out and are therefore indicating all-liquid precip. Euro/Canadian solutions show a more srn upper low track than the GFS, which allow the moisture to linger into Fri.
1051 AM MST Mon Jan 8 2018 Upper ridge over the area today will bring much above normal temperatures to the region. Upper ridge axis shifts east of the area tonight ahead of the next upper low projected to move onshore across the southern/central CA coast late tonight through Tuesday morning. Snow should start along the Continental Divide late this evening with a couple of inches possible across the higher elevations of the eastern San Juans and Sawatch range by early Tuesday morning.
Surface wise, a weakening, elongated area of high pressure (1027 mb) is located just offshore of the North Carolina coast. A two prong ridge extends into the extreme southeast United States and down the Florida peninsula. Also, a broad area of low pressure (1012 mb) is located over extreme southern Mississippi with an associated trough draped southward well into the south central Gulf of Mexico. Little change as model guidance remains inconsistent, especially the GFS and significantly different with the overall positioning of mid and upper level low tracking through the Gulf of Mexico over the next several days.
For Tuesday, upper low continues low SE motion over southeastern Gulf of Mexico, with a trough axis extending NE over forecast area. Went with chance POPs across much of the forecast area given weak lift with inverted trough.
322 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2018 A light wintry mix is expected to impact the southern tier and Susquehanna Valley into early evening, with light snow elsewhere as a weak cold front passes through.
316 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2018 The primary short-term concern is with potential fog transitioning to freezing fog beginning this evening into the overnight hours. The primary hazard associated with this setup is with the potential for slick roadways early Tuesday morning across the affected areas as surface temperatures return to below freezing tonight.
Tomorrow, and in spite of persistent cloudiness, temperatures will be much warmer than today, with readings reaching 50+ at many locations. High pressure will move swiftly to our east, setting up some welcome return flow and bringing the warmest readings we have seen since before the deep freeze of the past two weeks.
923 AM MST Mon Jan 8 2018 Update to forecast sent to adjust cloud cover thru the afternoon hours based on the high cloud beginning to enter northern portions of the CWA.
241 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2018 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level trough from ne Manitoba into the wrn Great Lakes. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the western U. 00z Wed with a closed low in the ern Gulf of Mexico and zonal flow across the north central U. The trough in the western U. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a closed 500 mb low over the lower Mississippi River Valley 12z Fri with troughing over the upper Great Lakes then too. Cold air moves in for Sat with lake effect snow showers cranking up again as an upper trough moves into the upper Great Lakes 12z Sat. This trough remains into Mon with the cold air remaining over the area and prolonged lake effect snow shower again.
959 AM MST Mon Jan 8 2018 Update to forecast sent to adjust cloud cover thru the afternoon hours based on the high cloud beginning to enter northern portions of the CWA.
It looks dry, with weak high pressure moving across southern Wisconsin tonight.
1238 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2018 A cold front will move through the area today.
PCPN has already mostly departed to the east along with a pre-frontal trof, with just some isolated light showers noted over the ERN coastal waters. /issued 411 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2018/ The vast majority of the convection associated with the passing cold front has cleared out of southeast Texas at this hour with just a few trailing light showers across Jasper and Newton counties. Behind the front moderate northwesterly winds will develop which will usher in some slightly drier, although not appreciably cooler, air. Afternoon highs today will be comparable to yesterday with overnight lows tonight about 5 degrees cooler than we're seeing this morning.
1048 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2018 Very few changes in the short term as temperatures begin to rise above freezing for most areas of southern Minnesota, and into west central Wisconsin this afternoon. The warmest temperatures will occur along and east of the Buffalo Ridge due to lack of snow cover and a downslope component enhancing the warmer temperatures. Slightly cooler air filtering southward across east central Minnesota and into west central Wisconsin tonight will allow temperatures to fall into the teens, with a few single digits in the typical drainage areas of west central Wisconsin.
1113 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2018 VFR conditions expected as high pressure moves into the southern plains. /ISSUED 935 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2018/ Wrap around clouds behind this morning's upper trough passage into the lower Mississippi River Valley kept a few sites slightly warmer than forecast at sunrise. Western communities should lower into the lower 40s with middle to upper 40s further east. As weak ridging engulfs the state. a partially cloudy day Tuesday warming into the lower 60s.
Temperatures tonight, while cooler than this morning, will remain above seasonal normals. Highs TUE to remain near seasonal underneath plenty of cloud cover despite weak ridging beginning to build in aloft, with increasing breaks in the cloud cover permitting a greater warmup for WED. Upper trof approaching from the west will send a strong CDFNT through the area late THU into THU night, with decent rain chances accompanying the FROPA and a much colder airmass pushing in behind it. 13 Modest northwest winds will continue tonight before subsiding Tuesday as high pressure builds into the area.
342 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2018 The short term forecast still remains rather uncertain as a mid level trough moves southeastward from the northern Gulf of Mexico. The ECMWF continues to bring the area of low pressure across the southern tip of the peninsula.
248 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2018 The upper level ridge over the western US will begin to break down today and move east. A progressive upper level low currently in the eastern Pacific will be the next source for eventful West Texas weather. This system will initially induce surface lee cyclogenesis/troughing on Tuesday afternoon.
There will not be a strong enough push of drier air southward to get rid of the low level moisture before the high pulls away. During the day the low level flow should start to become downslope, which will end the drizzle and eventually help to erode the low clouds Tuesday night. Although the northern part of the area could see freezing conditions tonight, it should not be until after the precip has ended. There is good model agreement at the beginning of the forecast period with strong southwest upper level flow across the OH valley in advance of a deepening upper level trough in the center part of the country.
150 PM MST Mon Jan 8 2018 Western CONUS ridge continues to amplify and push east as a vigorous NE PAC upper trough shifts east. This trough will split as the southern stream feature closes and then ejects into the plains Wed. Forecast models continue to trend the main sfc cyclone with this system further south, supporting a faster more prominent northern stream influence locally. Flow pattern will revert back to eastern CONUS trough/western ridge, with the FA on the cold side of the active baroclinic zone by the end of the week. WAA will continue as the ridge pushes east. Expect passing mid and high clouds with lows mainly in the 20s, warmer in favored BH downsloping areas. Strong cold front will shift across the area Wed, with snow expected.
A few areas could continue to experience freezing rain or sleet through the late afternoon as temperatures struggle to rise much above freezing. A low pressure system will begin to strengthen and move to the south into the Gulf Coast tonight. Flow in the upper levels will bring drier and cooler air into the area. With the southwest flow bringing warmer and more moist air. temperatures will be about ten degrees warmer than today. Mostly cloudy skies Tuesday night will keep lows above freezing once again. A low pressure area at the surface and aloft in the eastern Gulf off Floridas west coast and southerly flow around the mid Atlantic coast high will keep the clouds in the area and slight chance of rain or showers along the east slopes of the Appalachians overnight.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): Deep South Texas will be in between an upper low over the NC Gulf and a large storm system plowing into California and the Inter-mountain West. High pressure at the surface and aloft settles over our region the next 24 hours continuing the very pleasant weather. Temperatures rebound into the lower maybe the mid 70s with little to no increase in humidity but much less wind so it will feel warmer in the afternoon.
Temperatures have risen to above freezing. There may be a few spots locally with brief freezing rain or sleet since some dew points remain below freezing. Models agree that the upper closed low will drift southeast in the Gulf before becoming a more open wave by the end of the period.
920 AM PST Mon Jan 8 2018 Widespread precipitation, moderate to locally heavy at times, expected today into Tuesday with accumulating snow limited to the higher elevations. Satellite imagery showing upper trough near 28N 125W and associated deep moisture plume streaming inland over California. Elongating upper trough around 135W develops to closed low later today then progress across SoCal Tuesday.
331 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2018 The primary short term focus is on the fog/low clouds/drizzle potential tonight, as freezing temperatures are possible during the overnight and early Tuesday morning hours. There is good model agreement on some type of low cloud or fog, but it is more difficult to ascertain exactly which, putting a a bit of a hedge on that freezing fog/drizzle potential.
1254 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2018 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level trough from ne Manitoba into the wrn Great Lakes.
1000 AM MST Mon Jan 8 2018 Update to forecast sent to adjust cloud cover thru the afternoon hours based on the high cloud beginning to enter northern portions of the CWA.
146 PM PST Mon Jan 8 2018 A potent low pressure system will bring significant precipitation to the region through Tuesday. Travel over the higher terrain in the Sierra will become difficult at times due to heavy rain and snow through Tuesday. The upper level trough continues to move toward the coast and is drawing abundant moisture north into California and western Nevada. All of the deterministic forecast models are showing jet energy diving into the back side of this trough and causing a split to develop this evening and overnight. There are some differences in the details with regard to how far the developing closed lows digs to the south before opening again and moving east across the desert southwest.
248 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2018 A low pressure system brings wintry precipitation into tonight. Much warmer midweek, but cooling back down for the weekend. So canceled WSW, were either precipitation as ended or where warm mixing has occurred negating any further possibilities for freezing rain.
Areas of fog and patchy freezing fog is also possible further south along and south of I-40. Dense freezing fog could cause elevated road surfaces to become slick Tuesday morning. Temperatures will feel quite pleasant through mid-week with slight ridging in place over the Plains.
329 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2018 An upper level wave is moving east across eastern MT and into western ND currently, while high pressure resides at the surface across the Red River Valley and northern MN. This wave may produce some light freezing rain or snow. The GFS and some of the hi-res models have been promoting this event, but still the confidence is rather low due to a dry layer in the low levels. Warm moist air pushes back northward tonight and tomorrow ahead of a developing low pressure system. On Tuesday, the warm air aloft will result in mild lows in the morning and highs in the low to mid 30s across much of the region.
321 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2018 Weak high pressure will build into the region tonight, but will move quickly east on Tuesday.
Forecast soundings continue to indicate the low level moisture from the precipitation we had over the past 24 hours coupled with some snow/ice melt will aid in the redevelopment of fog tonight across most of our area. Forecast soundings continue to show a subsidence inversion effectively trapping the low level moisture right through most of tomorrow morning so once visibilities go down, they should stay down through the mid-morning hours before we see any improvement. That should result in slightly warmer afternoon highs with most areas seeing upper 30s to lower 40s temperatures.
Expect warmer temperatures on the plains on Wednesday given the stronger downslope flow. Continued NW flow aloft over the state will keep light snow possible in the higher mountains through the weekend.
A broad upper trough is positioned over the eastern U. A weak short wave moving through the flow tonight will increase clouds tonight and may bring another weak shot of cooler air into the area for Wednesday.
A broad upper trough was located across the eastern two-thirds of the nation, with an upper ridge south of Florida over the Caribbean and Bahamas. As the first ridge recedes, deep moisture across the northwestern Gulf will shift eastward into the region overnight and through the day on Wednesday. Lows tonight will be warmer due to the increased moisture and cloud cover. Highs on Wednesday will struggle to reach 50 degrees northwest of Waycross, with highs reaching the lower 70s across north central Florida.
Otherwise, a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Warren and Mckean through 6 PM Wednesday, with the highest accums occurring today into early tonight over NW Warren Co. Skies will stay mostly sunny across much of the Central Ridge and valley region of the state.
High pressure is situated to our northwest this morning with a light ENE flow across Middle Tennessee. Look for winds to increase somewhat by this afternoon as high pressure pushes into the upper midwest and tightens up the pressure gradient across the mid state.
Very cold temperatures with areas of freezing drizzle across the Big Country. Light drizzle, some freezing, was indicated by the Dyess AFB radar. Icy bridges and overpasses will be the main concern tonight, especially along and north of I-20, where temperatures will be in the 20s. Freezing drizzle amounts will be mainly trace amounts, but even these amounts could produce hazardous conditions. Went 2-3 degrees cooler than most short range MOS guidance Wednesday with cloudy skies and strong cold advection.
346 PM CST Tue Dec 26 2017 Low amplitude trough and associated ascent continues to shift away from east TX this afternoon, pulling weak showers with it. This will also aid in shifting reinforcing cold front now moving into central TX offshore tonight. Overall should see a trend towards somewhat warmer weather into late week/early weekend before yet another cold front ushers in return to much below normal temps to start the New Year. Winds will veer to more of an easterly direction later in the week as high pressure moves away. A cold front will cross the region later tonight and early Wednesday.
With a broad upper trough over the region. Chattanooga Airport, TN 45 27 42 24 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 40 24 39 20 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 40 25 39 19 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 19 35 15 / 10 0 0 0.
Easterly flow can be noted in the low levels on this mornings MFL RAOB sounding, with moistening atmospheric conditions from the surface to around 750 mb. Today through Wednesday: Front will dissipate over the area as high pressure builds over the eastern US and a ridge nosing into Florida from the northeast will allow a northeasterly flow today through mid week.