Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The latest water vapor loop shows the upper trough responsible for the recent round of severe weather is located over northwest Texas early this morning. The Pacific cold front associated with this system has pushed well into east Texas, with another cold front noted over west central Texas. We do have a few showers ongoing along the Highway 77 corridor, and do expect this activity to move out of our region over the next hour. For today, we will see breezy northwest winds, cooler temperatures and dry weather. High temperatures will range from around 50 degrees in Georgetown, to the lower and mid 60s along the Rio Grande at Del Rio and Eagle Pass. Low temperatures will drop into the 30s, with subfreezing temperatures expected in the Hill Country and adjacent cool spots along the I-35 corridor north of San Marcos.
942 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2020 High pressure will continue to ridge across the area from the NE as a cold front stalls just to the north of the area through the weekend. The pressure gradient will then relax with weak ridging remaining across the waters through the week.
Upper ridge moves east tonight with upper flow becoming more zonal later today through tonight. Upper trough tracks eastward across the Rockies tonight and approaches the Panhandles by 12Z Sunday.
318 AM MST Sat Jan 11 2020 Tonight lows will not be as cold due to the warmer air mass in place and cloud cover accompanying an upper level short wave trough through the forecast area. As the trough moves through the forecast area a band of frontogenesis will develop and strengthen. Sunday morning the upper level short wave trough will move over the east half of the forecast area. Behind the trough the sky will clear. Due to zonal upper level flow moving in behind the trough and continued WAA, temperatures will be warmer than today.
400 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020 A sharp upper trough was in the process of shifting off to the east of the area, but not before generating a couple of bands of snow that have translated southeastward across much of the CWA. Although the snow is coming to an end, and totals were relatively light, we do anticipate slick spots on the roadways this morning as temperatures fall well below the freezing mark. Since temperatures were close to the freezing mark when the snow fell, many roadways were initially wet, but now that temperatures are tumbling through the 20s, they will inevitably freeze up.
317 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020 The arctic ridge axis overhead this morning will move off east after sunrise and south winds will commence. A warm front will lift through wrn Nebraska and into ncntl Nebraska Sunday.
A warm front will move through Eastern Montana today with a chance of light snow. This will bring a cold front south during the day on Sunday with a chance of light snow. Models are trending towards slowing the timing of the front which will lead to a warmer day on Sunday than earlier forecasted.
Strong low level wind shear will present a problem for flight today as a very tight pressure gradient will be in place due to the deep low pressure system advancing into the Southeastern U. A line of showers and thunderstorms is ongoing ahead of the system cold front.
346 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020 An upper level trough is located across Texas early this morning. Temperatures across extreme southeastern Kansas are currently in the middle 20s with temperatures around the freezing mark along the Highway 65 corridor. The freezing line will continue to track east across the area this morning. Light to moderate rainfall continues across south central Missouri, with light freezing rain/freezing drizzle currently occurring across southeastern Kansas into western Missouri. With temperatures falling into the middle 20s with gusty winds, flash freezing of wet roads will also be possible. The light freezing rain and freezing drizzle will continue to occur this morning. As the upper level trough starts to move into the area, colder temperatures aloft will spread into the area and a band of snow will develop and move across the area.
This cold pool combined with the south winds on the plains should also generate a Denver cyclone circulation, bringing slightly cooler air back into Denver from the north in the afternoon. With very cold air in the valley bottoms and increasing clouds during the day, we lowered the high temperatures in those areas. Models are trending toward stronger cold advection tonight, so we lowered the lows a few degrees on the plains.
420 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020 (Today and Tonight) Early this morning, water vapor satellite imagery showed an upper level low moving into the Big Country, and radar showed areas of precipitation moving into the Big Country. Precipitation should end by 9 am as the low weakens into an open trough and moves east of the region.
423 AM MST Sat Jan 11 2020 Current surface map places high pressure across the eastern Dakotas with warm front across central Montana into Wyoming. Temperatures across northeast Wyoming into the Black Hills should reach the lower 30s. Sunday will be a few degrees warmer, especially across northwest South Dakota.
Although we'll begin the day with a brief ridge at 500mb, the incoming trough to our west will be the dominant feature through from this afternoon through the day Sunday, encompasing much of the western and central U.
406 AM MST Sat Jan 11 2020 The latest trough is starting to progress across the state, with snowfall beginning to increase in intensity across the western mountains, and strong gusty winds across Natrona County. As the trough moves east, the snowfall will peak in intensity this afternoon, before tapering off later tonight.
Temperatures will be the main focus for our area through tonight, with significant weather maker remaining well to our southeast, and arctic high pressure ridge keeping our area dry but quite cool. However, as the ridge axis shifts east of the area after midnight, increasing southeasterly winds, along with some increase in clouds in response to a weak northern stream wave sliding through the Dakotas, should result in steady or rising temperatures during the latter half of the night.
327 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020 Early morning surface analysis shows high pressure over the eastern ND/northwest MN region that has allowed for weak winds and clear skies overnight.
633 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020 This morning skies are clear east with arctic air in place, to the west Lee side troughing developing in Montana. As the lee side trough develops through today in Montana, the pressure gradient between the high to the east and this will support moderate wind of 10 to 25 mph across the region. Weak warm advection will support high temperatures into the lower 20s west to the single digits east central.
234 AM MST Sat Jan 11 2020 Current surface map places high pressure across the eastern Dakotas with warm front across central Montana into Wyoming. Temperatures across northeast Wyoming into the Black Hills should reach the lower 30s. Sunday will be a few degrees warmer, especially across northwest South Dakota.
Primary upper trough will translate east today with precip ending for most areas as dry slotting noses in from the west. Very cold temps aloft, coupled with strong CAA in the low-levels, should allow for lingering rain to mix with sleet/freezing rain before changing to all snow over northwestern AR this afternoon. Combined with the incoming cold air, apparent temps will fall into the low teens over northwestern AR with 20s to 30s elsewhere.
We now turn our eyes towards a trough, currently located over the Mountain West, that will be passing to our north mid-morning Sunday. It may not be relevant, though, as the best mixing occurs after the trough has passed, and therefore, after the best chances for winds.
In its wake, temperatures were in the low 50s, except in the Big Country where snow occurred last night, temperatures were only in the upper 30s. Overnight, another upper trough will move out of the Four Corners region which will help to generate an area of low pressure at the surface over the Central High Plains. Southerly flow should should increase during the day tomorrow, pushing warmer air back into the region.
This morning skies are clear east with arctic air in place, to the west Lee side troughing developing in Montana. As the lee side trough develops through today in Montana, the pressure gradient between the high to the east and this will support moderate wind of 10 to 25 mph across the region. Weak warm advection will support high temperatures into the lower 20s west to the single digits east central.
The pre-frontal trough is exiting the area with most convection, however the cold front is just approaching KLCH and KAEX.
256 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020 Skies remain cloudy across much of the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the lower 40s to the mid 60s. High pressure will start to build into the region tonight which will bring drier and colder air into the Mid-South. Temperatures will be much colder than last night but will be fairly close to normal with lows Sunday morning in the low to mid 30s.
Despite the cold start to the morning, temperatures should warm back into the low to mid 40s.
The amplified upper trough is currently moving through the TX panhandle and is headed into OK per 09Z water vapor imagery. Drier air has worked into the northwest part of the CWA associated with high pressure centered over the eastern Dakotas, with the greatest moisture now on the eastern periphery of the trough in MO and stretching into lower MI. All precipitation that falls today will come as snow with temperature profiles entirely below freezing and saturation within the DGZ.
944 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020 The cold front has progressively been making its way across the Four-States region, and is now picking up a full head of steam. Patchy BR/FG is possible over wet ground and could be a problem with freezing temps. Light to moderate showers will continue to move through this morning with the upper trough still on the way across N TX. /Today through Sunday/ Big changes continue as the cold front has arrived in much of NE TX. Low to mid 40s separate mid 50s and low 60s ahead of the front with wind gusts now in the teens from the NW and guidance is showing some more increase in speeds as the upper trough moves overhead.
In addition, surface temperatures have warmed to just above freezing in most lower valley locations, which should cause some of the new snow to melt today.
Gusts around 40 mph in the valley and around 60 to 80 mph in the higher elevations. Strong low level wind shear will continue a few more hours across northeast TN as a very tight pressure gradient is in place due to the deep low pressure system moving across the middle MS and Ohio Valleys early this afternoon. A line of showers and thunderstorms is advancing slowly east from middle TN into northern Alabama ahead of the cold front.
Although we'll begin the day with a brief ridge at 500mb, the incoming trough to our west will be the dominant feature through from this afternoon through the day Sunday, encompassing much of the western and central U.
Seasonable temperatures today will give way to an arctic cold front moving south through the region on Sunday.
1031 AM MST Sat Jan 11 2020 17z surface analysis had low over central MT with warm front to the Black Hills and trough into eastern WY. Current surface map places high pressure across the eastern Dakotas with warm front across central Montana into Wyoming. Temperatures across northeast Wyoming into the Black Hills should reach the lower 30s. Sunday will be a few degrees warmer, especially across northwest South Dakota.
1106 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020 An upper level trough is located across Texas early this morning. Temperatures across extreme southeastern Kansas are currently in the middle 20s with temperatures around the freezing mark along the Highway 65 corridor. The freezing line will continue to track east across the area this morning. Light to moderate rainfall continues across south central Missouri, with light freezing rain/freezing drizzle currently occurring across southeastern Kansas into western Missouri. With temperatures falling into the middle 20s with gusty winds, flash freezing of wet roads will also be possible. The light freezing rain and freezing drizzle will continue to occur this morning. As the upper level trough starts to move into the area, colder temperatures aloft will spread into the area and a band of snow will develop and move across the area.
Breezy northwest winds will relax later this afternoon and tonight as surface ridging slides across the region. Clear skies and light winds will promote excellent conditions for radiational cooling with temperatures falling into the low 30s to low 40s. Continued onshore flow will draw Gulf moisture back into the region Sunday night, resulting in increasing cloud cover and warmer overnight lows in the 40s to low 50s.
1106 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020 The arctic ridge axis overhead this morning will move off east after sunrise and south winds will commence. A warm front will lift through wrn Nebraska and into ncntl Nebraska Sunday.
1142 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020 Frontogenetically driven bands of snow have pushed east/south of the local area as associated northeast-southeast running sfc front is nudged by approaching upper level trough. Some hints in bufkit soundings there could be brief period of freezing drizzle before pcpn ends, but no evidence via observations and threat looks minimal at this time. The deformation region to the west of the low still gets going later today, but passes mostly across IL and southeast WI.
The highest rain probs are over the northwest Alleghenies and should ramp up over this area into tonight. A strong cold front will push quickly east across the state tonight, accompanied by frequent showers and even a brief thunderstorm with heavy downpours. A narrow cold frontal rain band with a few rumbles of thunder may accompany the cfront around 04-06Z across the west, and 07-08Z in the east, thanks to the anomalously warm and moist air yielding pockets of sfc-based cape of a few to several hundred j/kg.
319 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020 Current radar imagery shows widespread light to moderate rainfall across the region ahead of the approaching cold front as a 50-60 kt LLJ remains over central/eastern KY. The cold front, which is currently draped across southwestern IN and western KY, is expected to slowly push eastward across the area, exiting the region later tonight.
1026 AM MST Sat Jan 11 2020 17z surface analysis had low over central MT with warm front to the Black Hills and trough into eastern WY. Current surface map places high pressure across the eastern Dakotas with warm front across central Montana into Wyoming. Temperatures across northeast Wyoming into the Black Hills should reach the lower 30s. Sunday will be a few degrees warmer, especially across northwest South Dakota.
a fairly strong low pressure system being observed on water vapor imagery currently over eastern Washington and southern Idaho continue to move east.
Gusts around 40 mph in the valley and around 60 to 80 mph in the higher elevations. Strong low level wind shear will present a problem for flight today as a very tight pressure gradient will be in place due to the deep low pressure system advancing into the Southeastern U. A line of showers and thunderstorms is ongoing ahead of the system cold front.
1100 AM MST Sat Jan 11 2020 The latest trough is starting to progress across the state, with snowfall beginning to increase in intensity across the western mountains, and strong gusty winds across Natrona County. As the trough moves east, the snowfall will peak in intensity this afternoon, before tapering off later tonight.
/Issued 243 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020/ Cooler temperatures and drier air are on tap today behind last night's cold front. A moderate to strong gusty northwest wind will continue through this afternoon as another surge of high pressure builds across the area, which will lead to an elevated fire weather danger across the southern Brush Country and southern Coastal Plains.
The expansive low pressure system we have all been watching closely will continue to work its way east through the Ohio River Valley today. Skies will gradually clear tonight from west to east as the low pushes further east, with overnight lows ranging from near zero to the low teens.
/issued 944 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020/ The cold front has progressively been making its way across the Four-States region, and is now picking up a full head of steam. Light to moderate showers will continue to move through this morning with the upper trough still on the way across N TX. /Today through Sunday/ Big changes continue as the cold front has arrived in much of NE TX. Low to mid 40s separate mid 50s and low 60s ahead of the front with wind gusts now in the teens from the NW and guidance is showing some more increase in speeds as the upper trough moves overhead.
Cool surface ridging this evening will begin making a hasty exit overnight ahead of light easterly flow that remains with us through the day on Sunday.
Temperatures across the area after rising into the lower 70s in a few spots will cool somewhat tonight, bottoming out in the lower 40s by daybreak Sunday. A brief dry spell is forecast for Sunday, as a cold front pushes to the south and brings drier air across the region. The short lived dry spell will come to an end Sunday night, as the cold front returns northward as warm front.
/issued 256 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020/ Skies remain cloudy across much of the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the lower 40s to the mid 60s. High pressure will start to build into the region tonight which will bring drier and colder air into the Mid-South. Temperatures will be much colder than last night but will be fairly close to normal with lows Sunday morning in the low to mid 30s.
207 PM MST Sat Jan 11 2020 21z surface analysis had low over central MT with warm front into far western NE - plus, another weak low just east of the Black Hills. Temperatures tonight will be tricky with higher elevations staying warmer than the plains.
Upper low and attendant precipitation shield continues to move rapidly northeast, taking lift and thermal instability with it.
Weekend temperatures will be at a much more seasonal feel, with afternoon high temperatures in the low to upper-50s, and overnight lows in the low to upper-30s. Except for tonight, where post-frontal low temperature will range from the mid-20s in out northern areas, to the low-30's in our southern counties and parishes. Winds are also expected to decouple headed into the overnight hours as the tight pressure gradients that were following the cold front leave the area. This decoupling of the winds, and cooler temperatures expected overnight, will cause a good portion of the Four-States region to see some frost through tomorrow morning.
With clear skies and nearly calm winds, temperatures tonight should dip into the lower teens, if not the single digits for spots near the NE state border. The upper air pattern through the extended looks fairly progressive with embedded upper level troughs moving east across the Plains every other day. The stronger ascent ahead of these troughs will stay north and northeast of the CWA through midweek.
This first push is in response to an upper level trough whose axis still looks to be out west.
High pressure is settling in allowing for the winds to drop and this will continue in the coastal waters with the Small Craft Advisory dropping at 6 pm this evening. By tomorrow afternoon the frontal system that moved through today will be lifting back to the northwest as a warm front with clouds from the gulf spread inland across Louisiana and southeast Texas.
343 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020 The upper low continues its march eastward across the middle Missouri Valley this afternoon, and likewise the back edge of snowfall is exiting from west to east.
This will send a weak cold front south across the Plains with a northerly wind shift out near the Kansas border. An additional inch or two may be possible through Sunday evening over the higher peaks.
High pressure over Central Texas will move east tonight and this feature will bring clear skies, lighter winds and very dry air to the region. As this latest upper trough moves up into the northeastern U.
Otherwise, expect quiet weather with weak deep layer flow and a thermal ridge axis over the western Dakotas. It will be warmer tomorrow, especially over southwest North Dakota where highs may approach freezing.
539 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020 The upper low continues its march eastward across the middle Missouri Valley this afternoon, and likewise the back edge of snowfall is exiting from west to east.
Will then be watching low pressure moving east across the plains Sunday afternoon and night.
Current radar imagery shows widespread light to moderate rainfall across the region ahead of the approaching cold front as a 50-60 kt LLJ remains over central/eastern KY. The cold front, which is currently draped across southwestern IN and western KY, is expected to slowly push eastward across the area, exiting the region later tonight.
Weak ridging will move over the area for the evening hours, which may make the evening and overnight temperature forecast rather challenging as some areas will have fresh snow cover and good radiational cooling. So will keep a mention of freezing drizzle and snow flurries across central KS for now.
The cloud cover on Sunday will keep temperatures down below freezing making it the 3rd day in a row below freezing for the Tri-Cities. Most areas will see highs of 25 to 30, but southwest zones could climb into the lower to mid 30s with some late day sun.
731 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020 A strong low pressure system will lift northeast across the region tonight.
654 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020 Crossing low pressure will support widespread rain and gusty wind through early Sunday. Regional radar mosaic suggests widespread rain overspreading the forecast area ahead of an approaching cold front. Rapid clearing of rain showers will occur late tonight in the wake of the trough, and gusty wind will subside quickly by mid-afternoon as high pressure builds and the pressure gradient relaxes. The net effect will be veering wind in response to low pressure strengthening to the northwest, and attendant warm advection to help displace the remnant cool air.
A fast moving negatively tilted upper level trough may bring very light snow or flurries to northeast MO and west central IL Sunday night.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 65 47 66 / 90 0 20 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 63 44 63 / 100 0 10 50 Oak Ridge, TN 47 61 44 63 / 90 0 10 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 61 42 62 / 100 0 10 40 NC.
822 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020 Current radar and satellite imagery show lower clouds and drizzle over the Mid-South as high pressure begins to build into the area. Temperatures tonight into tomorrow morning will be close to 15 degrees lower than they were last night with lows generally in the lower 30s. /issued 256 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020/ Skies remain cloudy across much of the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the lower 40s to the mid 60s. High pressure will start to build into the region tonight which will bring drier and colder air into the Mid-South. Temperatures will be much colder than last night but will be fairly close to normal with lows Sunday morning in the low to mid 30s.
459 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020 A strong low pressure system will lift northeast across the region tonight.
706 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020 Thunderstorms will be possible tonight ahead of a cold front that will move through with gusty winds.
Tomorrow looks to be a generally quiet weather day across the High PLains with temperatures in the 30s and 40s and partly cloudy skies overhead.
Cold again tonight with freezing temperatures from Tucson into the lower deserts and well below freezing in colder southern and eastern valleys. We have a broad trough over much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West with a couple of systems passing well north of us.
Tomorrow, warmer conditions are expected, largely by about 5-10 degrees, though temperatures will be near seasonable with some readings a few degrees cooler than normal across north central NEB.