Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
109 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. NO REAL CHANGES TONIGHT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING STALLED OFFSHORE WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE FINALLY MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE.
WATER VAPOR TRENDS AND GFS/NAM STREAMLINE OUTPUT DEPICT AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NWRN TX.
257 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW MOVES INLAND AND SUPPRESSES THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SOUTH OVER NM.
AS THE LOW NOW OVER WESTERN IL CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE. WITH THE LOW LEVELS ALREADY SATURATED. TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S. THOUGH A LAKE BREEZE WILL LIKELY KEEP THE LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER. WITH RIDGING/WEAKER FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
TODAY-TONIGHT: NOT QUITE AS MUCH DISCREPANCY AS TO WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL BE THIS PERIOD. WITH THAT SIGNAL AND PROXIMITY OF UPPER TROUGH/LOW. TEMPERATURES LIKELY GOING TO BE SEVERAL DEGREE COOLER IN SOUTHEAST KS DUE TO CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. SUN-MON: STILL ANTICIPATE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SUN. THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE/CLOUDS/ PRECIPITATION COULD RESULT IN COOLER THAN FORECAST MAXES AGAIN ON SUN. WITH INCREASING SOUTH FLOW AND RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT. WITH APPARENT UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BUT PATTERN VERIFICATION WOULD SUGGEST BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS WOULD BE EVEN WARMER BY A FEW MORE DEGREES. THE LOW DECK WILL LIFT A BIT AND SCATTER OUT. HOWEVER IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WE BEGIN TO COOL OFF I EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO FILTER BACK INT FROM AN EAST TO WEST DIRECTION.
148 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS OVER SE IOWA. WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E AND THEN ESE INTO CENTRAL OHIO. TEMPS SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S TODAY DESPITE CLOUDS AND RAIN. PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGHING LEADS TO DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
1224 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/ IF YOU THINK THIS MORNING FELT WARMER AND MORE HUMID THAN EARLIER THIS WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND DEWPOINTS REMAINED STEADY IN THE 60S. THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF IS PULLING MOISTURE UP INTO THE TN VALLEY FROM BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. AND COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PROVIDED BY THE LOW.
MUCH COOLER,ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA ON SUNDAY.
MEDIUM MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF WI. MEANWHILE THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST WITH LITTLE STIRRING OR CHANGE OF AIRMASS. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS INTO WI. 925 THERMAL TROUGH EASES A BIT WITH WINDS TURNING MORE SW AND 850 SHOWS SOME WARMING AS WELL.
THE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS HELPED TO TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
EXTENSIVE AC/CIRRUS CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAK TROUGH SLIPS S.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS AND ARCO DESERT WITH THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INLAND.
THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE ALABAMA GULF COAST. THIS UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST.
553 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015 UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY 18 TO 24 HRS FROM NOW. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH TODAY WILL TRACK NE AND BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO OUR CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AREA BY TOMORROW. THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE ALABAMA GULF COAST. THIS UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST.
635 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION.
409 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015 LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. AN ELONGATED UPSTREAM TROF AXIS WAS NOTED STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. AN INVERTED TROF AXIS WAS ANALYZED AT H85 AND H7 EXTENDING FROM SW MS TO NEAR THE COASTAL TX/MX BORDER. THIS INVERTED TROF AXIS IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE WWD. DESPITE THE UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO TX TOMORROW. THIS UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO TEXAS CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. SHOWING THE TROF AXIS SLIDING INTO CENTRAL TX TOMORROW.
1120 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SK. WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MT AND NORTHERN ID. A SURFACE TROF EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO NORTHEAST WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AS MIXING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROF THIS AFTERNOON. TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE NRN PLAINS TODAY. SWRLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CWA BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER AIR TODAY. UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE PAC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MT SUN AND PUSH INTO THE NRN PLAINS SUN NIGHT.
336 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH TOASTY 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +20S CELSIUS. WITH BETTER MIXING TOMORROW AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
325 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND.
326 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015 (Tonight and Sunday) Weak upper trough over west Texas resulting in mostly elevated showers/virga over the western half of the forecast area today. Temps today have been several degrees cooler with increased cloud cover.
201 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
248 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM INVOF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE THE WEAKNESS FOR THE CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS BEEN RESIDING ON THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO LIFT NE. WHILE DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING. HAD TO CONTINUE LOW END POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BUT THE TROUGH SHOULD LIFT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING TO MIDDAY HOURS.
111 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. THIN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING EASTWARD AHEAD OF POSITIVE TILT 700-500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN FILTERED SUNSHINE FOR NRN NY AND VT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS RIDGING BACK INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS VERY WELL AN UPPER LOW OVER OUR EASTERN COASTAL WATERS. WHILE LEAVING A SECOND WEAK UPPER TROF OVER TEXAS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
115 PM MST SAT AUG 29 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY WITH HOTTER LOWER DESERTS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 110. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY.
928 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015 SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ARE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. /ISSUED 349 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015/ LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WITH A COLD FRONT STREWN ACROSS THE IOWA AND MISSOURI BORDERS AND BACK THROUGH NEBRASKA.
A low pressure area along the coast will help to keep some showers going most of the night with the lightning settling down after midnight. The trough axis is expected to move into the central part of the state late tonight. The trough axis will finally move east by late Wednesday evening and activity should die down after that.
THE STRONG UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE ARROWHEAD UNDER SOME CYCLONIC FLOW. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND NRN WISCONSIN AREAS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST WED NIGHT/THURS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO WESTERN MN.
653 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015 COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO THE EVENING HOUR. STILL HAVE STRONG GRADIENT WINDS OVER THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE DAKOTAS. SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE OVER MOST OF MINNESOTA AND BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL WOBBLE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. WITH WARMING THERMAL PROFILES HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER. IN THE LOWER 50S EAST TO UPPER 50S WEST. STAYED ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO DEWPOINTS.
THESE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DIMINISHING AND EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 50S. HIGH PRESSURE. WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S/40S. CAPPING INVERSION LOOKS TO REMAIN STRONG UNTIL FLOW OVER THE WARM FRONT CAN OVERCOME IT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
614 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 245 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015/ THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A DECENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. WILL TREND TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM TEMPS FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO PROGRESSIVELY MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY 18Z WEDNESDAY.
/ISSUED 418 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THE LOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTURE WILL UNFORTUNATELY SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE GUSTY NORTHWEST-NORTH WINDS WILL STAY UP INTO THE EVENING THEN BECOME THE LOWEST ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA LATE. RIBBON OF HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN FOR WED. RIBBON OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE FA INTO THU AND FINALLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.
1133 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN IN THE EASTERN GULF AND SPAWNING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT HAS ALSO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO DROP BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCALES. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST-NORTH WINDS WILL STAY UP INTO THE EVENING THEN BECOME THE LOWEST ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA LATE. RIBBON OF HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN FOR WED. RIBBON OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE FA INTO THU AND FINALLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.
00Z KTBW SOUNDING IS MUCH DRIER COMPARED TO THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS THE PWAT VALUE OBSERVED WAS 1.
1258 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015 A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BUT LOCALLY BELOW FREEZING IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS FAR NERN VT. GENERALLY MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERS FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS MAINE. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH UPPER LEVEL TROF BRINGING FURTHER CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
648 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015 WV IMAGERY THIS AFTN REVEALING LARGE LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A DOWNSTREAM WELL AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS. AND THE FEATURE BEING CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SRN CA.
ANTICIPATING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF AREAWIDE MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE MORNING PUSH HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER MS WAS EXTENDING A DRY AIRMASS INTO THE CENTRAL COUNTIES. A MORE HUMID AIRMASS OVER SOUTH TEXAS WAS MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE AS SEEN BY THE SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 60S AT KPSX.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS.
747 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2015 A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR EARLY THIS EVENING CONTINUE TO SHOW THE INVERTED V SIGNATURE INDICATIVE OF DRIER AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS. THE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
/ISSUED 503 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015/ A PASSING SERIES OF WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE WEST NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND AROUND THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN STATES WAS PROVIDING LIFT TO GO ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE AROUND 8-15 KFT AND PRODUCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. EARLIER IN THE DAY DUE TO THE LOW WET BULB ZERO SEVERAL REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL WERE REPORTED. THEN DURING THE AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE AREA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A QUIET BUT COOL OVERNIGHT EXPECTED AS A RESULT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THIS FRONT THEN TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH HIGHS TOMORROW ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. AM NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THE PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION BUT WILL MAINTAIN SOME SMALL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
608 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015 COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TO JUST NORTH OF KANSAS CITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RESULTING IN DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 20S AND EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA. WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS.
1040 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
Scattered showers will remain in the forecast tonight as a cold front over the Midwest this afternoon approaches the region tonight.
WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN BEHIND A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN BY 09Z OR 10Z. BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND A TROUGH AXIS.
LOOK FOR MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AT MID STATE TERMINALS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER 11Z, AS A COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH.
THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST.
1150 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015 COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO THE EVENING HOUR. STILL HAVE STRONG GRADIENT WINDS OVER THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE DAKOTAS. SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE OVER MOST OF MINNESOTA AND BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
1145 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015 WV IMAGERY THIS AFTN REVEALING LARGE LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A DOWNSTREAM WELL AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS. AND THE FEATURE BEING CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SRN CA.
940 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2015 SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE LOWER 80S WITH UNCOMFORTABLE DEWPOINT READINGS IN THE MID 70S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. WHILE THE LATTER PRECIPITATION SEEMS TO BE ALIGNED WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND A SIGNIFICANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS DRAPED FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.
1017 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
SC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING FOR SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
534 PM MDT TUE APR 21 2015 THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THAT TRANSITIONS THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 03Z-09Z TONIGHT. HAVE COOLED OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS BY AROUND 10 DEGREES FROM TODAY TO TOMORROW WHILE THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAY ONLY BE AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER.
745 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HAVE THUS MAINTAINED THE LOW POPS IN THIS AREA THROUGH SUNSET. THE OTHER FORECAST ISSUE FOR TONIGHT IS TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE COOLER AIR BEING PUMPED IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AFTER DARK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BROUGHT WITH IT CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ITS MOVE EASTWARD OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AS A RESULT AS WELL AND BRING ABOUT NEAR AND SUB-FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO THE ADDITIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT.
WITH A PATCHY LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS AND LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH. A FEW FACTORS SUPPORT FOR THE HIGHER SOLUTIONS. THE MAIN FACTORS THAT SUPPORT LESS ACTIVITY ARE THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL RIDGING AND THE UPPER JET LIFTING NORTH. KEEPING A MUCH WARMER LAYER AT H85.
715 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
BULK OF PRECIP ASCD WITH THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U. PRECIP CHANCES FALL TO A SILENT 10PCT FRI AS MID LVL RIDGING REBUILDS AN H85-H70 THERMAL CAP OVER CENTRAL FL. (MOD PREV EXTENDED DISC) A TRANSITORY RIDGE OVER THE GULF BUILDS EWD OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST U. FAVORABLE CONDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS AS A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES MAINTAINS A WEAK RIDGING PATTERN OVER THE FL STRAITS. THE MEANDERING RIDGE WILL PRODUCE A LOOSE PGRAD THAT GENERATE WEAK SFC/BNDRY LYR FLOW THRU THE WEEKEND.
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 00Z NAM SHOW PRECIPITATION PUSHING FROM CENTRAL OREGON INTO SE OREGON AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE PAC NW. STILL CONFIDENT THAT IT/S A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE SNAKE PLAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
1035 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
638 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A QUIET BUT COOL OVERNIGHT EXPECTED AS A RESULT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.
THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS AND WEAKENS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A SMALL SCALE RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SOME WEAK ENERGY AND MOISTURE SLIDES UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND COMBINES WITH A BIT OF INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE WEST.
821 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2015 A FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
1146 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015 THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A CUTOFF LOW OVER SWRN CALIFORNIA WITH A RIDGE ABOVE THAT OVER THE NWRN CONUS. AND THEN A TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST. AND THIS WAS PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO NRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH SOME MIDLEVEL CLOUDS FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. BUT THE UPPER LOW MOVES A LITTLE EAST. SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE TO THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REACH AROUND 60.
/ISSUED 928 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015/ SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ARE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. /ISSUED 349 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015/ LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WITH A COLD FRONT STREWN ACROSS THE IOWA AND MISSOURI BORDERS AND BACK THROUGH NEBRASKA.
602 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015 THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A CUTOFF LOW OVER SWRN CALIFORNIA WITH A RIDGE ABOVE THAT OVER THE NWRN CONUS. AND THEN A TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST. AND THIS WAS PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO NRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH SOME MIDLEVEL CLOUDS FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. BUT THE UPPER LOW MOVES A LITTLE EAST. SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE TO THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REACH AROUND 60.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SAT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO MEANDER SIGHTLY EAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS NUMEROUS AS WHAT WE SAW TODAY AS MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER WITH THE MAIN UL TROUGH DRIFTING EAST. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
1039 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST TONIGHT.
1008 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
935 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2015 A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT EXPECT THE TOLEDO AREA WILL HAVE A MUCH LOWER CHANCE THAN MARION TO YOUNGSTOWN AS A PIECE OF JET ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH AND PROVIDING THE NEEDED SUPPORT FOR ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT THERE. THE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS THAN WE'VE HAD FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.
/ISSUED 349 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015/ LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WITH A COLD FRONT STREWN ACROSS THE IOWA AND MISSOURI BORDERS AND BACK THROUGH NEBRASKA.
RIDGING AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT. UPSTREAM TROF. WITH WEAK LEE TROFFING GOING ON AT THE SFC.
A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE S FROM KS INTO CENTRAL OK BY MID-MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.
/ISSUED 338 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2015/ (Tonight and Wednesday) Southerly flow this afternoon is helping increase low level moisture across West Central Texas, with dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s across much of the area. The increase in low level moisture will keep temperatures warmer, with lows in the lower to mid 60s.
810 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
800 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2015 A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. GIVEN THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE SURFACE AND CLOSED UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. GENERALLY MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERS FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS MAINE. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH UPPER LEVEL TROF BRINGING FURTHER CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
723 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.