Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A resident ridge parked over the Western US will keep skies clear, inviting plenty of daytime heating to reach the surface. We could be flirting with record heat all week long, although the records will not be too hard to reach with our stretch of warmer weather ahead.
Hot and dry day expected with upper ridge over eastern Montana/western North Dakota. With increased upper level moisture, scattered high clouds can be expected today with a stray thunderstorm possible this evening over the higher terrain around the Little Rockies. A cold frontal passage Monday night may trigger a few thunderstorms and set the stage for a cooling trend midweek.
1126 AM MDT Sun Aug 21 2022 Upper ridging continues across the western CONUS and NW flow over the region. At the surface, high pressure remains over the upper Midwest while low pressure drifts over eastern MT through WY. A gradual shift in the pattern is then expected through the rest of the week, as the ridge breaks down and a series of waves push through the region.
Latest water vapor imagery continues to display a deep upper trough over the eastern CONUS while an upper ridge is anchored over the Intermountain West. A very quiet weather regime will then prevail for Monday as subsidence behind the exiting wave continues as the upper ridge begins to build eastward into the Northern Plains.
With a few scattered showers/storms moving across Cedar Ridge this morning (8:30 AM MST), updates to our POP grids was justified. High pressure located off the California coast will continue today before shifting overhead early into the work week. The best possible chances for showers and thunderstorms look to be along and south of the Mogollon Rim during this time - with the highest activity today before a downturn begins tomorrow as high pressure reigns over the region.
Overall the short term looks pretty quiet given the broad ridging aloft over the region. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure out west on Monday could spark isolated convection toward evening, but mainly west of the ABR CWA, so will keep forecast dry for now. The GFS is weaker with the system later in the week and warmer vs. the cooler and wetter Ecmwf.
Discussion: An upper trough is pivoting through IL/IN this afternoon, with a +50-60kt jet streak ahead of it over eastern Kentucky. The approach of this upper trough combined with daytime heating has lead to a steady increase in convective coverage across the region over the last couple of hours. However, some scattered storms will continue into the overnight hours as a weak front associated with the upper trough approaches from the west late tonight. The front pushes into, or perhaps east of the forecast area during the day tomorrow so rainfall should mostly be limited to the higher terrain on monday.
Temperatures have climbed into the lower to mid 70s and with a light north breeze. Surface ridging will remain overhead tonight and will allow for a chilly night especuially across the interior with clear skies and light winds. As ridging and dry air move in across Upper MI today, expect mostly cloudy skies to become sunny from west to east, with a couple of isolated rain showers and thunderstorms possible in the far east.
The weak 500 mb trough over northwestern CO this afternoon will shift further south, with some mid level drying expected along on Monday, with increasing subsidence developing as a west-east oriented ridge axis sits along the northern border. The highest thunderstorm coverage will shift a little further south, with the less coverage over the NE plains and over Jackson/Grand counties.
625 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022 Key Messages: - Dry and pleasant start to the work week - Rain chances to round out the new week * DRY, SUNNY START TO THE WEEK Low stratus will continue to exit south/break up as the afternoon wears on, with weak high pressure building in later tonight - holding into Tue. Thanks to the high, Monday will bring the sunshine and dry conditions many hoped the weekend would have.
802 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022 A broken line of storms is situated along the KY/TN border as part of a weak cold front that is inching its way toward Middle Tennessee. Will keep low chance POP's in the grids during the overnight period as we may not ever go completely echo-free with the cold front remaining in the vicinity.
621 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022 (This evening through Monday) Current water vapor imagery shows broad upper level troughing across the central Plains and the Rockies. A flat upper level high extends from the Gulf of Mexico eastward across south Texas and northern Mexico.
We are monitoring for redevelopment along a cold front in the lower OH valley.
413 PM MDT Sun Aug 21 2022 Satellite imagery this afternoon shows the upper ridge sitting over the lee side of the Rockies and northern plains, with the upper trough over the Great Lakes region.
626 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022 A subtle wave and cold front moved through the area yesterday ahead of a weak ridge which has turned upper level flow northwesterly bringing relatively cool and pleasant conditions across the area for the next few days. High temperatures hover in the low to mid 80s for the next few days. Orographic descent across the foothills of the Rockies combined with diurnal heating and blocking warm front across the Gulf keeps temperatures quite nice over the next few days. The high across the SW CONUS expands eastward midweek nudging the warmer air eastward which could push highs toward the 90s.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 83 68 86 67 / 50 20 20 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 83 66 86 65 / 50 20 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 68 83 65 85 65 / 50 20 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 81 63 82 62 / 40 30 20 10 0.
Upper air and satellite data show weaker, generally Nrly flow in place, between ridging extending from srn CA into the Nrn Rockies and low pressure sliding east across the Midwest/Great Lakes. High pressure continues to be the dominant feature at the sfc, centered over the SD/MN/IA/NE border area, keeping winds light this afternoon. At the sfc, the main ridge axis will keep sliding east with time, while low pressure remains over the High Plains.
1032 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022 A surface through mid level Atlantic ridge extends west southwestward across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to dominate Keys weather through the overnight period. Overnight lows will be above normal, struggling to fall into the lower 80s. A ridge across Florida will maintain moderate to fresh easterly breezes on Keys waters overnight, with a slight increase early.
Jaja High pressure is building across the Mid Mississippi Valley on the heels of last night's frontal passage. Clear to relatively clear sky with light wind should provide good radiational cooling so I'd expect temperatures to cool down to near the dewpoint in the low to mid 60s. Guidance has come in a little warmer toward the end of the week than previously forecast. long wave trough a bit farther to the east which allows the western ridge to build closer to the Mid Mississippi Valley.
From a flood threat perspective, far southern portions of Choctaw County have seen amounts on the low end of that range and this is the same area that is most likely to see notable additional totals late tonight and into Monday morning.
/issued 305 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022/ Temperatures currently range from the low to mid 80s across much of the forecast area. The latest surface analysis places a 1013mb low near Cleveland, Ohio with an attendant cold front extending southwest along the Kentucky and Indiana stateline and back into the Missouri Bootheel. The front will eventually stall near the Tennessee and Mississippi border, as the main trough lifts out of the region. Increased cloud cover and scattered showers and storms will keep much of north Mississippi cooler than normal throughout the week as well. AC3 00Z TAFs A weak surface to FL020 cold front over SE MO / W KY will slowly drop south through east AR and west TN overnight.
There are other showers and thunderstorms to our north along the TN/KY border along a cold front, but are moving east-southeast.
A low pressure system currently over the Pacific Ocean is expected to drift inland toward the Northern Rockies on Monday. This low pressure will provide a daily barrage of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms throughout the upcoming week.
CMiller (Issued 205 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022) Tonight through Monday night: Should see a gradual clearing this evening with high pressure building in. The high should dominate Monday with an onshore flow and then linger through Monday night with some additional fog potential.
The mid-level vorticity maxima reaches northeast TX tomorrow, and in doing so, mid-level moisture wraps around the low and across much of Oklahoma (excluding the northern two tiers of counties). Convection, with the heavier rainfall rates, are projected to travel near and south of the Red River through Monday as the low progresses slowly eastward. Warmer temperatures will be seen tomorrow due to the diminished rain coverage and gradual clearing.
Some higher level clouds are riding over the top of the ridge axis upstream of us, but other than that, not really much to talk about tonight weather-wise. Since it's so quiet tonight, here's a dad joke that Who is a meteorologists favorite relative? Anticyclone! No changes to the forecast for this time period.
759 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022 Aviation - Showers and Thunderstorms into this evening We expect showers and a few thunderstorms (not severe) into this evening as a cold front slowly slides south across the area. Some of the high res models have areas of dense fog near and west of US-131 (where the afternoon convection today has been and is expected to continue to be into early evening).
618 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022 High pressure is building across the Mid Mississippi Valley on the heels of last night's frontal passage. Clear to relatively clear sky with light wind should provide good radiational cooling so I'd expect temperatures to cool down to near the dewpoint in the low to mid 60s. Guidance has come in a little warmer toward the end of the week than previously forecast. long wave trough a bit farther to the east which allows the western ridge to build closer to the Mid Mississippi Valley.
Upper level trough in the Ohio Valley has triggered a few showers in eastern IL otherwise in the dvn cwa skies were partly sunny. High pressure settling into the area will bring calm to light winds, and clear to partly cloudy skies.
Latest high-res visibility guidance has been focusing on a narrower corridor from Rockford to Bloomington for dense fog potential, in line with the higher probabilities shown on the midday HREF. Temperatures currently appear on track to drop into the lower 60s by sunrise. Areas of dense fog will again be a concern tonight as skies clear and winds turn light beneath high pressure. Temperatures on Monday will warm into the low 80s beneath mostly sunny skies. A relatively benign forecast is in place through midweek as a broad ridge of high pressure works to pacify thunderstorm activity.
Discussion: The axis of the upper trough over the region will shift to our east during the period. A weak cold front will push through today and then be off to our south/east tonight.
Weak ridging and subsidence in the mid- upper levels today should inhibit deep convection but kept slight chance of showers in areas east of US-127 which is still on the back side of the departing low.
East, southeast flow continues as the Atlantic ridge axis remains over N Florida.
PWATS a little higher ahead of a warm front that lays along a line from Sidney to Douglas.
The deeper moisture gradient will move southward with the western end of a larger trough that extends into the upper Ohio River valley.
311 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022 Isolated to scattered showers will dot the region today as the back edge of moisture wrapped around low pressure to the east persists and daytime heating helps accentuate lift and allow for some minor expansion of this activity as diurnal cumulus field fills in with time. Temperatures will remain mild within the northerly flow in the wake of this low with highs in the upper 70s to around 80. As the upper low opens and moves off the the east/northeast, expect a flatter northwest flow regime to become established through the mid-late week period.
Temperatures across northeast Kansas are sitting in the mid 60s with lows expected to fall into the low 60s by sunrise.
229 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022 Showers and storms continue ahead of a cold front today. Drier and warmer conditions are then expected for the remainder of the work week, although isolated storms possible at times. A mid-level wave embedded in broader cyclonic flow overhead will provide the impetus to drive a weak cold front across the area this afternoon into this evening providing a focus for developing of additional showers and storms.
05Z observations are showing weak upper level flow aloft as a ridge in the Rockies is amplifying. There is still plenty of monsoonal moisture in the four corners region however with a high pressure centered in Iowa this should keep most of the moisture to the south. A stationary front is located from Goodland to Medicine Lodge and this along with the high pressure center should keep the winds light and variable.
upper trough. This deep very moist air mass combined with high freezing levels and tall skinny CAPE should support the potential for highly efficient rain producers with any of the stronger storms. Hourly rainfall rates may exceed 2 inches per hour with the potential for storms to train, especially in the vicinity of the low level boundary.
This afternoon, with the western flank of the eastbound upper low still in close proximity, sufficient lift, instability, and moisture will be available to create slight chances for convective showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two in our far eastern portions of the CWA.
Temperatures along the island chain are hovering in the lower to mid 80s, with muggy dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, and winds on land generally from the east to southeast around 10 mph. Surface analysis depicts high pressure centered near Bermuda, with a ridge extending westward across North Florida and along the northern Gulf Coast. Aloft, mid level ridging remains dominant across the western Atlantic, Florida and most of the Gulf. While water vapor imagery shows an upper low spinning east of the Bahamas, this features does not appear to be having much impact on the sensible weather. Temps will be hot once again, with highs reaching the lower to mid 90s. Generally nondescript late summer weather will continue through midweek, with low level easterly flow gradually weakening and becoming ESE as the Atlantic ridge retreats further offshore.
314 AM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022 Ridging over Central Great Basin will continue over the next few days while broad troughing continues in the east, leaving weak NW flow overhead. Mostly sunny skies and light east to southeast winds can be expected along with seasonable temperatures, highs in the low 90s and overnight lows in the 60s.
1247 AM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022 (This evening through Monday) Current water vapor imagery shows broad upper level troughing across the central Plains and the Rockies. A flat upper level high extends from the Gulf of Mexico eastward across south Texas and northern Mexico.
Weakening upper trough supporting a smattering of showers across the area this aftn within weakly unstable/moist airmass. Nothing of consequence this period as expansive sfc ridging builds across the lakes. Later today, high pressure will provide VFR conditions with wind increasing a touch toward 10kts.
Otherwise, it will be another beautiful day, a little warmer than yesterday with high temperatures in the mid 80s to near 90 in northeast NE, generally edging a little above normal.
1156 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022 Key Messages: - Dry and pleasant start to the work week - Rain chances to round out the new week * DRY, SUNNY START TO THE WEEK Low stratus will continue to exit south/break up as the afternoon wears on, with weak high pressure building in later tonight - holding into Tue. Thanks to the high, Monday will bring the sunshine and dry conditions many hoped the weekend would have. With an area of high pressure setting up over the area, a deep light wind layer will be in place under clear/mostly clear skies.
Like yesterday, the greatest activity formed at the based of a trough passing through Utah (visible diving southward through central UT in the WV imagery), with storms carried to the south along a favorable shear profile which encouraged development along the southern flank of the storms. Expect a downturn in activity on Monday under the stabilizing influence of high pressure developing over the area. However, there is enough moisture for scattered thunderstorms once again, generally over the higher terrain from the Mogollon Rim to the south.
A weak cold front stretches across northern parts of the Mid-South this morning with low clouds and some patchy fog across the area. Temps are in the lower 70s.
Today's weather similar to yesterday's as an upr-level trough axis remains positioned off to the west.
158 AM MDT Mon Aug 22 2022 Flattened ridge will be over the area with light steering flow aloft.
Evening water vapor satellite imagery showing a well defined upper low moving onto the Pac NW coast. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop Monday morning across Baker county as the main trough axis transfers inland.
914 PM MDT Sun Aug 21 2022 Satellite imagery this afternoon shows the upper ridge sitting over the lee side of the Rockies and northern plains, with the upper trough over the Great Lakes region.
357 AM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022 Surface ridging firmly in place over the northern and central plains this morning. Temperatures will be a near repeat of yesterday with highs in the lower to middle 80s.
The drying trend will continue through the short term as high pressure regains control of the Great Basin later today.
Temps are expected to climb to the low and mid 80s in most spots. Otherwise, look for dry conditions into later tonight, with cooler overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 68 86 67 87 / 30 20 20 20 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 66 86 65 87 / 20 10 10 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 83 65 85 65 87 / 20 10 10 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 63 82 62 85 / 30 20 10 0 10.
1204 AM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022 Upper level trough in the Ohio Valley has triggered a few showers in eastern IL otherwise in the dvn cwa skies were partly sunny. High pressure settling into the area will bring calm to light winds, and clear to partly cloudy skies.
1109 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022 A subtle wave and cold front moved through the area yesterday ahead of a weak ridge which has turned upper level flow northwesterly bringing relatively cool and pleasant conditions across the area for the next few days. High temperatures hover in the low to mid 80s for the next few days. Orographic descent across the foothills of the Rockies combined with diurnal heating and blocking warm front across the Gulf keeps temperatures quite nice over the next few days. The high across the SW CONUS expands eastward midweek nudging the warmer air eastward which could push highs toward the 90s.
Thunderstorms over the southwest mountains not persisting away from the higher terrain yet. Monday will be similar to today, although the eastward shift of the ridge and monsoon moisture will bring thunderstorms closer to the CWA by evening. Upper low sits over the Pacific Northwest through midweek, helping to pull monsoon into eastern Montana for better chances of rain and cooler temperatures. With increased upper level moisture, scattered high clouds can be expected today with a stray thunderstorm possible this evening over the higher terrain around the Little Rockies. A cold frontal passage Monday night may trigger a few thunderstorms and set the stage for a cooling trend midweek.
After the fog dissipates, expect plenty of sunshine with high pressure overhead.
with low pressure along the lee side of the Rockies. With an area of upper level high pressure extending across the local area from the intermountain west and no notable disturbances to speak of.
155 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022 Showers and storms continue ahead of a cold front today. Drier and warmer conditions are then expected for the remainder of the work week. A mid-level wave embedded in broader cyclonic flow overhead will provide the impetus to drive a weak cold front across the area this afternoon into this evening providing a focus for developing of additional showers and storms. Monday night the upper level trough will be weakening while tracking eastward over New York.
410 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022 An upper level trough will exit the Ohio Valley later today with drier northwest flow found in its wake.
Today is finally the day of one more hot afternoon high temperatures as our upper level ridge weakens and an upper level low develops over the Pacific NW. Today we expect scattered showers and thunderstorms across our area as a surface cold front moves through tonight.
Afternoon high temperatures will range from the low to mid 80s.
Meanwhile, high pressure continues to dominate over the state keeping east to southeasterly winds in place. East, southeast flow continues as the Atlantic ridge axis remains over N Florida.
Highs Tuesday should be a notch warmer but look for increasing high clouds.
Weak ridging aloft will begin to build offshore the Pacific Northwest today behind a transient 500mb trough. Dry westerly flow aloft is forecast to prevail across NW California today with slightly cooler high temperatures forecast for the interior. The above mentioned trough should allow for marine layer deepening today through tonight as surface northerlies strengthen offshore.
The low pressure system will continue east-northeast across the region through the first half of the week resulting in unsettled weather.
(Now through Tuesday) A mid-level ridge will remain in place over Deep South Texas as a midlevel trough swings into the Southern Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley today into Tuesday. With this said, as the trough continues to dig into Texas an associated cold front begins to sag into central Texas that could introduce a low chance of POPs in extreme northwestern portions of the CWA Tuesday afternoon but maintaining chances to less than 15 percent. Temperatures will remain just below normal for today and a few degrees warmer for Tuesday with heat index values in the 103-108 degree range both days.
648 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022 An upper level trough will exit the Ohio Valley later today with drier northwest flow found in its wake.
Upper level trough will move onshore today, lifting across Washington/Oregon, and then looks to remain somewhat stationary over the Pacific Northwest through the first half of the week. Current satellite imagery is showing cloud cover increasing and shifting northward from the coast across the PNW and a drier air mass ahead of the low over our region. For today, PWAT values range from around half an inch to just under one inch, with the highest values further south.
441 AM MDT Mon Aug 22 2022 The upper ridge that has dominated the western CONUS the past several days is breaking down. A series of waves are pushing across the top of the ridge, which will bring a shift in the overall pattern we've been seeing. An upper low will slide into the Pac NW today, then stall out for much of this week.
Precipitation should diminish this evening with the trough axis east of the forecast area with partial clearing allowing for patchy fog or low stratus development overnight. Dry conditions are then forecast the remainder of the period as high pressure transitions across the region.
624 AM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022 (Today through Tuesday afternoon) A cold front is moving through this morning, switching winds out of the north and bringing cooler temperatures to the region. On Tuesday, we begin a slow warming and drying trend as a upper ridge builds across western CONUS and we return to northwest flow aloft.