Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
600 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 232 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2015/ A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TODAY KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE SO TEMPS SHOULD BE A DEG OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. ONLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME CIRRUS FILTER IN TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING WHICH COULD KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER. AN EMBEDDED VORT MAX MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U. TONIGHT AND THEN WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.
A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE MOISTURE AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED THE THE COLD FRONT PROJECTED TO START MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. TO THE LOW 70S AND EVEN CLOSE TO 75 FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DRY. AS A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
CURRENT AIR TEMPERATURES IN KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S. A LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC CONTINENTAL ANTICYCLONE WILL FORTIFY OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND BEGIN MIGRATING EASTWARD.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
Expect morning lows in the low to mid 50s to rebound into the middle and upper 80s region-wide.
440 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WITH THE COMBINATION OF 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG THE FRONT. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT USHER IN COLD AND DRY CANADIAN AIR.
A COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOWER 50S. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY EVENING.
1236 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 A WEAK SFC TROF WAS JUST MOVING INTO NW WI AT 01Z. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PERSISTED WITH THE TROF. MOSTLY CLEAR BEHIND THE TROF. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL REACH NORTHERN MINNESOTA TOMORROW MORNING. FALLING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND BY THE EVENING HOURS. LATEST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW CAPE IN THE SATURATED LAYER ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A DUSTING OF SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT.
647 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S AND THUS EXPECT PATCHY FROST EARLY THIS MORNING. SUNSHINE AND WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL HELP QUICKLY WARM THE ATMOSPHERE. LEANED A LITTLE TOWARD WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR TODAY. COLD FRONT MAKES IT INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA BY EARLY EVENING THEN CROSSES THE REST OF THE CWA TONIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL THEN SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW SPOTS COULD EVEN DROP CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SPREAD MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN UTAH FRIDAY.
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE PENINSULA WILL PUSH SOUTH OF CENTRAL FL THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S ALONG COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF THE CAPE WHERE AN E/NE WIND PERSISTS TO LOW TO MID 60S OVER THE INTERIOR. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGING N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WL PRODUCE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL BUT THE LAKE OKEE AND MARTIN CO AREA WHERE A SMALL CHC OF SHOWERS WL REMAIN. RE-ENFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SWD FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY EARLY THROUGH TUE. WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY.
SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN BETWEEN GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGHINESS AND UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY WITH STRONGEST NORTHEAST WINDS OCCURRING FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS WITH MID 60S TO LOW 70S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO. CURRENT AND PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAVE FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA (WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S). ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE CALIFORNIA AREA LARGE UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO OPEN UP WHILE SLOWLY MOVING EAST. ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO.
626 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY CREST OVER THE AREA TODAY BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED.
418 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. LATE TODAY CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST BRINGING THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WHICH COULD BE MIXED WITH WET SNOW ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
401 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2015 A cooler airmass will be pushing into western Montana from the east. The ridge of high pressure will quickly rebound over the Northern Rockies of Friday causing temperatures to climb to well above normal readings once again.
THIS COOLER AIR WILL SINK INTO THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. GUIDANCE WAS GOING A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE EAST NOW TOO. WITH FORECAST LOWS SLIDING FARTHER SOUTH OF FREEZING AT BAKER. GUIDANCE AT BILLINGS WAS ACTUALLY A LITTLE WARMER WITH DRAINAGE WINDS KICKING IN OVERNIGHT. SURE FEELS LIKE A NIGHT WHERE THE AIRPORT COULD BE 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE WEST END. WOULD ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
THEN SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANY CLEARING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING AND INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS.
The main challenge in the short term period will be rain chances associated with a cold front progged to push through the region tonight. Although moisture profiles are lacking in depth, strong forcing associated with the front and upper trough may be enough to squeeze some showery activity out of thin low-mid level moisture. Some of the high-res models support this thinking while other global models have come in a bit drier in recent runs. Friday will be cooler in the post-frontal airmass with highs ranging through the 60s.
SET UP BETWEEN RIDGING EXTENDING FROM TX UP INTO THE PAC NW REGION. WHILE TROUGHING AFFECTS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST/NERN CONUS AREAS.
/ISSUED 639 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2015/ AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OVER ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DRY ON THURSDAY.
The much anticipated cold front will likely enter portions of northeast Oklahoma late this afternoon, pushing through the rest of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas by sunrise tomorrow.
A DRY PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER. CONTINUED DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE ALOFT.
311 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 As high pressure shifts further east today, low level slys will commence ahead of a developing/approaching cold front. The passing cold front will encounter a moisture starved environment with little mid level support. After fropa, Canadian high pressure will drop sse across the mid and upper Ms valley.
THE HIGHER WINDS WILL BE TOWARD THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. HOWEVER SOME LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE HIGH AND VERY HIGH CATEGORY WITH THE STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL A MODERATE SPREAD IN LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING AND SOME OF THE ADJMAV/ADJMET FORECAST DROP LOWS AT LINCOLN AT OR BELOW FREEZING. HAVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF LANCASTER COUNTY. AND WILL BRIEF THE DAYSHIFT THAT LINCOLN AIRPORT AND LOW AREAS COULD SEE A FREEZE AND IF FREEZING TEMPERATURES MORE WIDESPREAD MAY WANT TO CONSIDER ADDING TO THE WARNING. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S BEFORE TEMPERATURES REBOUND WITH THE MILDER AIR ALOFT.
423 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 ACTIVE NEAR TERM TODAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 20S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS REX BLOCK ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH BROAD TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER ALBERTA AND EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THEN HOLD STEADY AROUND FREEZING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNDER THE CENTER OF THE HIGH. NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW PERSISTS AS WESTERN RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA.
109 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING BELOW NORMAL. THIS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA EARLY FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN OVER THE FAR NW COUNTIES IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAKE AND TOPOGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL EASTERN CANADA WILL BE DRIVING THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO FAR THIS SEASON SOUTHWARD.
619 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE BULK OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSING BY. CL TROUGHING PATTERN DEVELOPS BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE SEASONABLE TEMPS AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND NIGHTTIME LOWS AROUND 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
126 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
539 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE BULK OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSING BY. CL TROUGHING PATTERN DEVELOPS BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
335 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 BREEZY WINDS TODAY AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES CURRENTLY OVER SW WI AND ADJACENT STATES WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN WI THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. AND THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS SRN WI THIS AFTERNOON.
349 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2015 MILD CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE LEE TROUGHING AHEAD OF A DRY CANADIAN FRONT WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. AREAS ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS MAY DROP TO THE FREEZING MARK. THE SHIFT TO SLY WINDS WILL USHER IN DRIER AND SLIGHT WARMER AIR AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY. NEAR FREEZING TEMPS STILL ON TRACK FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A KILLING FREEZE DUE TO THE SHORT DURATION OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS. ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE BIG UPPER TROUGH.
231 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING BELOW NORMAL. THIS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA EARLY FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN OVER THE FAR NW COUNTIES IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAKE AND TOPOGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL EASTERN CANADA WILL BE DRIVING THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO FAR THIS SEASON SOUTHWARD.
AT THE SURFACE, A VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
VFR conditions expected today ahead of cold front which will move into NE OK/BVO area around 21-22z. The much anticipated cold front will likely enter portions of northeast Oklahoma late this afternoon, pushing through the rest of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas by sunrise tomorrow.
WITH A THURSDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT BRINGING THE BEST SHOWER CHANCES. LOWS NEAR FREEZING ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND. JUST A TREND TOWARD CLEARING A COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY. FRIES ALL AREAS SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY MUCH OF THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING SETS UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY.
THIS LOWER DECK WILL ALSO ENCROACH ON KSSF/KSAT 10-15Z AS WELL BUT MOISTURE MAY BE JUST LIMITED ENOUGH NOT TO GO BKN. THE SPREADING OF ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR OR ARE ONGOING PRESENT A CONCERN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
438 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH A FEW OF THE LOCALLY COLDER SPOTS IN THE UPPER 30S.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
321 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 A cold front currently poised along the US/Canadian border will race southward today, reaching the Ohio River by early evening. Ahead of the boundary, southwesterly winds will transport warmer air into the region resulting in afternoon highs climbing into the lower to middle 70s.
232 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TODAY KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE SO TEMPS SHOULD BE A DEG OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. ONLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME CIRRUS FILTER IN TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING WHICH COULD KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER. AN EMBEDDED VORT MAX MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U. TONIGHT AND THEN WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA ALONG WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IN THE MID LVLS THE L/W TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WILL BE REINFORCED BY A S/W DIGGING ON THE BACK SIDE FRI. THIS S/W WILL HELP TO SEND ANOTHER SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRI. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COOLER AND EVEN DRIER AIR WILL SLIDE IN.
1203 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 WEATHER CONCERNS EARLY THIS EVENING IS WHETHER -SHRA/SPRINKLES DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MOVING ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF MINNESOTA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL NEVADA ON THURSDAY. 500MB LOW PRESSURE IS NEAR THE CENTRAL COAST OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS AT ELKO AND WINNEMUCCA WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING. MAIN DIFFERENCE FROM 24HRS AGO IS A SLIGHT SHIFT NORTHWARD FOR THE CLOSED LOW.
539 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY SOUTH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
326 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 A SUBTLE COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE MORE SUNSHINE BECAUSE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.
Have gone on the higher side of guidance as soundings indicate should mix through at least 870 mb with sustained winds near 10-15 mph and gusts in the 20s for the afternoon. Degree to which winds diminish as the high center approaches in the overnight hours will have some impact on lows and ability for frost to develop.
ALTHOUGH WITH THE HIGH TO THE EAST. EXPECTING A LITTLE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY MORNING.
PUSHING A COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING WITH INCREASING N-NE SFC WINDS 10-15KTS PREVAILING BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WYOMING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /ISSUED 819 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2015/ COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS NATRONA AND FREMONT COUNTIES THIS EVENING. TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER AIR. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER.
242 AM MST THU OCT 15 2015 A SLOW MOVING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
510 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A STRONG BUT MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.
336 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 THE HIGHLIGHTS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE REVOLVE ON AROUND TWO VERY DIFFERENT AIRMASSES WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGHS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. A SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE MID- SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN AS OF 19 UTC THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL COMMENCE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS THIS COMING WEEKEND.
453 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE BULK OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSING BY. CL TROUGHING PATTERN DEVELOPS BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
A cold front will approach region near the end of the forecast period, but fropa is not expected until after 06Z Friday. /issued 237 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2015/ An upper trough is impacting the northeastern conus and the Upper Midwest with a cutoff low off of the southern coast of California. Temperatures are expected to increase across the area today with highs mostly in the lower 90s across the Permian Basin. Conditions are expected to remain similar through Thursday with upper ridging impacting the area. On Friday, a cold front associated with the upper trough over the Upper Midwest will push through the CWA. There is a slight chance of rain and thunderstorms across southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain and surrounding plains of West Texas on Friday as a result of this front.
After another hot day today, with afternoon highs again near record levels, another cold front will begin to push into West Central Texas tonight. For tonight, a cold front will begin to push into our Interstate 20 corridor around or a couple hours past midnight tonight. This front will bring cooler air into West Central Texas and help produce much cooler temperatures for the next several days.
342 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE REMAIN THE HIGH WILD FIRE DANGER. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO ARKANSAS. WHILE AND COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS INTO ARKANSAS FOR THE WEEKEND.
BUT STILL SOME DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. TONIGHT WE WILL SEE CLEAR SKIES NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATURE COAST TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST FROM AROUND TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD. ON FRIDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
1004 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST TODAY INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED SE OF THE FA. SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA. SOME SHORT WAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY WILL HELP CARVE OUT A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
A PASSING UPPER-TROUGH WILL BRING BEFORE THE SKY CLEARS OUT LATE TONIGHT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NE TEXAS MOVING TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX WITH TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING THROUGH THE AREA INTO C TX. LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS AND UPPER LOW SHOULD BE THE MAIN DRIVERS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES SHOULD HOLD MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S PERHAPS LOW 60S TODAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING ALSO SHOWS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST.
418 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
Also, the southwest winds have begun to warm many valleys to above freezing, so what precipitation does fall will be in the form of rain, or a mix of rain/snow. After the cold front passes through western Montana later this morning and early afternoon, snow levels will crash to many valley floors.
WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS EAST TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. COULD SEE SOME AREAS ACROSS EAST TEXAS REACH THE LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. REPLETE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS EACH DAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUED TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST. MOSTLY RANGING FROM LOW TEENS TO LOW 20S OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD TO OUR WEST THIS WEEKEND WE WILL SEE THE WARM AIR ALOFT STEADILY MIX TOWARDS THE SURFACE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS UNDER SUNNY SKIES. REACHING THE UPPER 70S OVER THE WARMER LOWER DESERTS BY SUNDAY.
651 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 WEAK RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS EAST OF JAMES BAY IN CANADA. MODELS SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SUNDAY.