Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Winds will slowly shift, becoming southerly late in the day ahead of an approaching H5 ridge. The ridging to our west will be the source of warmer temperatures for Monday night, with lows falling into the teens. Impacts and concerns in the extended will stem from upper ridge to start the period with above normal temps then with the trough passage an arctic push of air and associated precip.
The low clouds would finally clear as the upper level ridge axis pushes in from the west on Wed (albeit for a short time as next round of clouds, snow potential slides in late Wed night).
157 PM MST Sun Jan 31 2021 A quiet short term weather pattern for the Northern Rockies as a ridge of high pressure builds over the region. Warmer air aloft will spread over the area holding temperatures in the 30s for many locations west of Rosebud county.
Weak divergence aloft in conjunction with the sfc/upper trough axes will foster redevelopment of showers late this morning into/through the afternoon hours moving from west/east. Otherwise, temperatures were also lowered slightly given current ob trends being a little cooler than expected. As is usually the case in nw flow scenarios, cigs will remain in the low MVFR to IFR (possibly LIFR at TRI) range as moisture is locked in by the terrain. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 34 38 29 41 26 / 20 20 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 33 36 28 37 22 / 50 60 40 20 0 Oak Ridge, TN 33 36 27 38 23 / 40 50 20 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 32 35 25 33 19 / 50 60 60 30 0 TN.
A warming trend can be expected late week ahead of a weekend low pressure system. With high pressure slowly building in slowly from the northwest and low pressure moving off to the northeast slowly, it will also be blustery at times.
1059 AM EST Sun Jan 31 2021 South to southwest winds will continue to increase into this afternoon, to around 10-15 mph with higher gusts expected as low level flow strengthens ahead of cold front moving through the southeast United States. Greater chance for rain will be into tonight as band of showers and isolated storms moves into the region ahead of the cold front. A band of showers and isolated storms will precede a stronger cold front moving into the area later tonight. (Previous Discussion) Winds will increase around sunset starting across the offshore Volusia waters as a cold front approaches the local waters.
West of the Plateau (western 2/3 of the mid state) looks like a dusting to a few tenths will be possible, however models are keeping temps around to just above freezing, which will make snow difficult to stick, especially for urban areas where roads/buildings will keep ground conditions a little warmer.
256 PM CST Sun Jan 31 2021 The backside of a mid/upper level low pressure currently centered near the Ohio River Valley continued to push low level cloud cover within northwesterly flow across most of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this afternoon. The cloud cover is forecast to erode from southwest to northeast during the day Monday and should hopefully exit far Northwest Arkansas by late afternoon as the low pressure system and associated upper trof axis nears the East Coast. Lighter winds and more sunshine forecast Monday afternoon will aid in warmer temps for the CWA with highs in the 40s/low 50s forecast. A warming trend continues through mid week with the return of southerly flow and a ridge of high pressure setting up over the Plains.
However, the cold front preceding the colder air mass should sweep through the forecast area tonight and push out the rain showers and the wedge and leaving breezy conditions with northwest winds and continued thick cloud cover. At this time we believe the QPF to be greatly overblown with the high res models, which are forcing heavier QPF and thus snow totals, isolated over the Cohutta Wilderness area.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Afternoon analysis reveals an amplifying pattern across the CONUS with sharp ridging through the Intermountain West into the Plains and downstream deepening troughing through the eastern CONUS. Area of light snowfall with the closed low to our south continues. Overall larger scale trough will continue to deepen across the eastern third of the U. Western Great Lakes region will remain on the western fringe of the deepening upper low in the east and sharp riding/warm air building through the Plains and Midwest. Details: Subsidence and dry air on the northern fringe of the closed low will continue to build down into northern Michigan tonight through Monday bringing diminishing cloud cover.
The cold front will move through the area later this evening. Shear has decreased somewhat compared to this morning, but there is still sufficient shear given the instability for a stronger storm or two to develop this afternoon, although the threat is on the low side. Behind the front, cooler conditions will prevail.
/issued 1007 AM CST Sun Jan 31 2021/ Cold frontal boundary and associated precip exiting the region this AM. /issued 309 AM CST Sun Jan 31 2021/ Showers along the pre-frontal trof continue to transit the area this morning mainly along the coast and Southcentral Louisiana. The actual cold front is moving into the western portions of the forecast area at this time. The cold front will move across the forecast area through the morning bringing clearing skies and cool northwest breezes.
Kept lows tonight similar to previous forecast, trending with the cooler guidance. The upper level ridge builds into the High Plains Monday and 850 temps ranging from 5 to 9 degrees celsius move into western and north central Nebraska bringing a modest amount of warmer air aloft but the main challenge continues to be the snow pack across the area. If more snow is able to melt in the last few remaining hours of sunlight today, there could be a chance for temperatures to be a few degrees warmer tomorrow, but with confidence low in much additional melt the remainder of the day have trended towards the cooler guidance for this area.
Houston County could see the coldest readings with low temperatures close to the freezing mark. High pressure builds in over central TX on Monday.
1015 AM MST Sun Jan 31 2021 Water vapor shows upper trof shifting further east with large ridge crossing the Rockies. At the surface, ridge is located over the western Dakotas, with low stratus along and east of a Lemmon to Pine Ridge line. Low stratus and fog will gradually shift east/dissipate this morning as drier air works in with approaching upper ridge.
The expected cloud cover should favor low temperatures on the warmer side of guidance, largely in the mid to upper teens. Dry and mild weather will dominate the first half of the upcoming week, as upper ridge builds across the Plains behind slow-moving East Coast storm system.
1109 AM EST Sun Jan 31 2021 A passing low pressure system will bring a round of snow to the region with some Advisory level accumulations across the area.
The cold front that brought MVFR and IFR ceilings and visibilities early this morning, is almost all the way through the Rio Grande Valley. Behind the front, high pressure will settle overhead the region, allowing VFR conditions to prevail through the next 24 hours. Expect MVFR to IFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande Valley through 15Z before a cold front moves through the area later this morning. VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into this evening as high pressure builds into deep south Texas in the wake of the front. The front will bring drier and slightly cooler air across the CWA this afternoon through tonight. Some patchy fog may develop across the coastal sections of deep south Texas this morning before the cold front moves through the area.
Overall weak flow under the ridge will support an array of temps across the area, with areas toward Central SD struggling to mix out the inversion under weak Jan insolation. Massive eastern PAC ridging toward the middle of the week will help support a pattern change per upper flow, with the ridge dislodging arctic air over northern Canada, directing it due south into the region by this weekend, per two cold fronts/systems.
805 AM PST Sun Jan 31 2021 Fair and warmer weather is in store for today as high clouds thicken from the southwest.
1105 AM CST Sun Jan 31 2021 Cooler conditions, gusty winds, and very light wintry precip are the main points of discussion in the short term. Temperatures will be cool today, with noon temperatures in the low 30s to around 40 (warmest far southeast).
Breezy and relatively mild conditions today as a low pressure system sets up off the Pacific NW coast. A few snow showers are possible across the higher peaks in Baker county, otherwise dry with a gradual increase in clouds across southeast Oregon.
(Monday night through next Sunday) A broad upper level ridge will bring warming temperatures through midweek and dry conditions.
The large scale weather pattern driving much of the uncertainty for the region is a large ridge to the west over the central Pacific Ocean. As this ridge breaks down and the pattern becomes more progressive, it will bring active weather to much of the US.
Upper level analysis places low over the midwest, with ridge axis stretching from near the four corners region northward to the lee of the northern Rockies. The main highlight for the day will be the seasonably mild temperatures as upper ridge gradually pushes over.
Roxy MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with abnormally warm conditions under northwest flow and an amplifying ridge forming over the Pacific Northwest.
/NEW/ /Through Monday/ Cool and windy conditions persist this afternoon in the wake of a cold front that passed last night. The official forecast lows are a few degrees below the NBM and show a light freeze occurring across much of North Texas (though the urban core of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metropolitan Area may stay a little above freezing). Monday will see continued northwest winds of around 10 MPH with high temperatures staying in the 50s (a few spots in our southwest could barely hit the lower 60s).
Upper level high pressure ridge will approach to just west of the area by midday Monday. /issued 514 AM CST Sun Jan 31 2021/ VFR prevails for the TAF period with breezy, north winds as a dissipating cold front moves through before becoming light and variable near civil twilight. /issued 310 AM CST Sun Jan 31 2021/ Fair weather is expected across the CWA today as an upper-level ridge builds into the area. The southward sagging cold front, now located over central Oklahoma and extending northwestward into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle region will undergo frontolysis later this morning as the ridge builds in. Sincavage A return of southerly to westerly breezes beneath upper level ridging will fuel a nice warm up through the middle of the coming week.
Upper level ridging will start to slide in Tues into Thurs ahead of the next system we will be watching.
933 AM MST Sun Jan 31 2021 Only high clouds are expected through Monday as high pressure brings mild and dry conditions to the region. /ISSUED 438 AM MST Sun Jan 31 2021/ A broad upper level ridge continues to build over the region, providing dry and seasonally mild conditions, with upper-level clouds (chinook arch) at times primarily just downstream of the Rocky Mountain Front through Monday. The ridge moves away to the east late Monday, but the westerly downslope flow will continue to maintain mild but breezy conditions.
937 AM CST Sun Jan 31 2021 (Issued 937 AM CST Sun Jan 31 2021) Light snow will continue across southern Wisconsin today as low pressure slowly pulls away. Some lingering troughiness and lakeside convergence will keep some snow shower chances going mainly in the evening before finally diminishing. Plenty of low level moisture with the low level thermal trough in place so will keep things on the cloudier side.
1118 AM CST Sun Jan 31 2021 AT 2 AM, light to moderate snow continue to fall across the Upper Mississippi River Valley associated with wrap around moisture from a low pressure system over northern Illinois. The highest totals will be found in Clayton and Fayette counties in northeast Iowa and Grant County in southwest Wisconsin.
We may have some high clouds around tomorrow afternoon, but that won't stop our temperatures from getting into the low to mid 60s.
A cold front stretching from southeast Louisiana to northeast Alabama was approaching western edges of the forecast. With this morning's soundings from surrounding offices showing a significant subsidence cap around 700mb, a lot of heating and/or mid level destabilization is needed for MUCapes rising to around 1000 J/kg that some models continue to advertise before the approaching cold front and increasing post frontal stratus eliminates any heating. Have went on the high side of guidance for tonight's low temperatures. Latest visible satellite loop shows rapid clearing behind the band of showers, with wrap-around stratus moving southeast across the Lower Mississippi River Valley at this time. The showers are expected to be slow to move out of areas along and east of I-65 this afternoon as a cold front begins to move over the forecast area.
Zonal flow in the upper levels will transition to northwest flow as the trough that drove through yesterday's front pushes eastward. Winds decrease overnight and should stay between 5 and 10 mph tomorrow as the high settles over Texas. Tomorrow should be a degree or two cooler than today as subtle cold air advection continues.
The cold front is beginning to enter northwest Alabama with pre- frontal showers focused in our far southeast. Additional low to mid-level moisture will advect southward on the backside of the low. Precipitation rates will be light and temperatures are forecast to stay above freezing, so impacts to travel are not expected.
Only high clouds are expected through Monday as high pressure brings mild and dry conditions to the region. /ISSUED 438 AM MST Sun Jan 31 2021/ A broad upper level ridge continues to build over the region, providing dry and seasonally mild conditions, with upper-level clouds (chinook arch) at times primarily just downstream of the Rocky Mountain Front through Monday. The ridge moves away to the east late Monday, but the westerly downslope flow will continue to maintain mild but breezy conditions.
High pressure will bring dry conditions and a strong warming trend to start the week. Another winter weather system will bring cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and a chance of valley rain and mountain snow the second half of the week. A ridge has pushed temperatures up 10 to 15 degrees warmer compared to 24 hours ago.
1143 AM CST Sun Jan 31 2021 The system which brought freezing drizzle to parts of the area continues to slide off to the east very early this morning. If clouds hold longer than anticipated, lows may be a few degrees warmer than this.
Weak divergence aloft in conjunction with the sfc/upper trough axes will foster redevelopment of showers late this morning into/through the afternoon hours moving from west/east. Otherwise, temperatures were also lowered slightly given current ob trends being a little cooler than expected. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 34 38 29 41 / 40 30 30 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 33 36 28 37 / 40 60 60 40 20 Oak Ridge, TN 51 33 36 27 38 / 30 30 40 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 32 35 25 33 / 50 60 70 60 30 TN.
210 PM CST Sun Jan 31 2021 Upper ridge will build over the area through the period, although the ridge axis will stay to the west of the area (MT/WY) through the short term period. The weak area of high pressure currently over the Dakotas will slowly shift east tonight, eventually allowing a southerly flow to increase Monday into Monday night. Before that southerly flow picks up, the low clouds that are over much of the CWA have been pretty hard to move out with the light northwesterly flow over the region.
1107 AM CST Sun Jan 31 2021 Some minor collaborative and sensible weather adjustments made for this afternoon through tomorrow to reflect short term trends with the closed low and sharp pressure gradient behind the low. Low pressure is passing by just to the north of the Quad State early this morning. Breezy winds will continue through the day with sustained winds of 15-20 mph and gusts to 30 mph, becoming northwesterly as the low passes by. Wrap-around showers behind the low will bring scattered rain showers during the day, changing towards snow for the evening as we head towards lows just below/near freezing. Northwesterly flow continues over the Quad State Monday, as the trough deepens in the Mid-Atlantic and a ridge builds over the western 2/3rds of the country centered in the Rockies.
/Tonight through Monday Night/ Deep, strong northwesterly flow remains in place in the wake of a departing upper trough over the Eastern CONUS and an associated surface cold front.
1024 AM MST Sun Jan 31 2021 Subsidence beneath a building ridge of high pressure will bring dry weather to the area today. Daytime warming is expected to burn off the low cloud cover during the afternoon. The ridge axis shifts east of the Continental Divide tonight as a mid-level trough over the eastern Pacific approaches the West Coast. Clouds increase further Monday as the eastern Pacific trough edges closer to the coast, though precipitation will hold off until midweek.
The best chance of any drizzle/freezing drizzle will be east of the forecast area, but have included low end chances over our northeast CWA during the evening hours. Little or no impacts are expected with any freezing precipitation. Upper ridging will also begin to build into the area, with the main ridge axis positioned over the Rockies.
247 PM MST Sun Jan 31 2021 Sunny skies continue over all of eastern Utah and western Colorado this Sunday afternoon thanks to a ridge of high pressure moving through the Rocky Mountain states. This ridge will shift eastward this evening and overnight, allowing for height falls aloft and thus some cirrus cloud cover to spill eastward. Forecast guidance had been hinting at the potential for some very light snow in the highest elevations of the San Juans on Monday afternoon and evening as the column saturates in the mid and upper levels.
538 PM CST Sun Jan 31 2021 Low pressure over southern Ohio along with an upper level disturbance shifting out of the region tonight, will see the widespread light snow diminish from the west during this evening.
257 PM MST Sun Jan 31 2021 The entire western US is under an upper level ridge, keeping winds light and warming over the next couple days, well above normal.
Forecast Summary: A trend toward warmer temperatures through mid week is still on track.
256 PM MST Sun Jan 31 2021 An upper level ridge will be over the area today and tonight.
However, where stratus persists overnight lows are more likely to remain in the teens or even the lower 20s (similar to last night). Winds will slowly shift, becoming southerly late in the day ahead of an approaching H5 ridge. The ridging to our west will be the source of warmer temperatures for Monday night, with lows falling into the teens. Impacts and concerns in the extended will stem from upper ridge to start the period with above normal temps then with the trough passage an arctic push of air and associated precip.
518 PM CST Sun Jan 31 2021 VFR with some breezy N winds until sunset, then becoming light overnight through Monday as high pressure draws closer. This morning's cold front is well south of the area and is currently pushing towards the Central Gulf. Highs will be a bit cooler tomorrow as CAA continues with temps in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees.
/issued 324 PM CST Sun Jan 31 2021/ Cool and dry gusty northwest flow today behind the departing cold front.
An upper level ridge over the eastern Conus shifts east in response. A cold front has begun to move over northwestern portions of the forecast area late this afternoon. Helping to modify the instability, and lessen the already small chance of any strong to severe storms, is drier air moving over the forecast area ahead of the approaching cold front. Have went on the high side of guidance for tonight's low temperatures.
426 PM MST Sun Jan 31 2021 Sunny skies continue over all of eastern Utah and western Colorado this Sunday afternoon thanks to a ridge of high pressure moving through the Rocky Mountain states. This ridge will shift eastward this evening and overnight, allowing for height falls aloft and thus some cirrus cloud cover to spill eastward. Forecast guidance had been hinting at the potential for some very light snow in the highest elevations of the San Juans on Monday afternoon and evening as the column saturates in the mid and upper levels. Overnight lows will run around 5 to 8 degrees warmer on Monday night given early cloud cover.
Lingering snow cover will slowly become less of a factor in Hays and Wakeeney, but will keep temperatures cooler there through at least Monday.
Upper ridge will build over the area through the period, although the ridge axis will stay to the west of the area (MT/WY) through the short term period. The weak area of high pressure currently over the Dakotas will slowly shift east tonight, eventually allowing a southerly flow to increase Monday into Monday night. Before that southerly flow picks up, the low clouds that are over much of the CWA have been pretty hard to move out with the light northwesterly flow over the region.
The low clouds would finally clear as the upper level ridge axis pushes in from the west on Wed (albeit for a short time as next round of clouds, snow potential slides in late Wed night). If low level saturated layer at RST was any deeper tonight per forecast soundings, would be a little concerned for potential of a brief period of light freezing drizzle, but fortunately it looks just shallow enough to suggest no precipitation.
333 PM CST Sun Jan 31 2021 Tonight and Monday: As an upper level low pivots through the Midwest today, a front is currently moving through our region with a rush of colder and drier air behind it. The tight pressure gradient between the low over the Ohio River Valley and here is resulting in windy conditions throughout the area. As the low and upper trough continues to pivot through the region, conditions will remain windy overnight and through the day on Monday.
/Issued 256 PM CST Sun Jan 31 2021/ The backside of a mid/upper level low pressure currently centered near the Ohio River Valley continued to push low level cloud cover within northwesterly flow across most of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this afternoon. The cloud cover is forecast to erode from southwest to northeast during the day Monday and should hopefully exit far Northwest Arkansas by late afternoon as the low pressure system and associated upper trof axis nears the East Coast. Lighter winds and more sunshine forecast Monday afternoon will aid in warmer temps for the CWA with highs in the 40s/low 50s forecast. A warming trend continues through mid week with the return of southerly flow and a ridge of high pressure setting up over the Plains.
Moderate northerly winds will continue overnight and slowly weaken on Monday as high pressure builds into the area and weakens the pressure gradient. /issued 213 PM CST Sun Jan 31 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): A cold front passed through Deep South Texas earlier this morning, leaving moderate to gusty northerly winds in its wake. With a cooler and drier airmass gradually sliding in behind this front as high pressure settles over the region today, temperatures will still reach the upper 70s to low 80s this afternoon, but tonight, temperatures will drop into the 40s across most of the area and the 50s along the coast.
742 PM EST Sun Jan 31 2021 Low pressure will lift northward tonight as the upper level trough and additional showers cross the area Monday.
97 The entire western US is under an upper level ridge, keeping winds light and warming over the next couple days, well above normal.
This morning's cold front is well south of the area and is currently pushing towards the Central Gulf. Highs will be a bit cooler tomorrow as CAA continues with temps in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees.