Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A couple of issues that may enhance lower level mesocyclone development will be the boundary extending e-w across the US-50 corridor and the rather stout 30-40 knt sw 700 mb winds overlaying a surface easterly flow. trough axis will be to our east and NW flow at mid lvls will be over the region. Max temps will be a bit cooler with reading 2-3F cooler than today.
401 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 A cold front will push southeast of the region this evening, allowing showers and thunderstorms to come to an end. High pressure will build into the Great Lakes, offering dry weather Saturday.
140 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 Low pressure over Lake Huron will continue to move east today dragging a cold front across the local area.
138 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 An upper trough will push a cold front south across the region through Saturday. Otherwise, an upper trough extended from Hudson Bay to the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, a surface front now over the Carolinas and Georgia will weaken and shift slowly east today, while a better defined cold front reached the mountains from the northwest. As of 245am EDT Friday: Generally zonal upper flow pattern Saturday morning gradually transitions to southwesterly flow as next continental trough approaches the area.
638 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 A warm front will lift across the region tonight followed by a cold front on Saturday.
However if models are correct with surface boundary lifting north, then even warmer temperatures maybe conservative.
This high has quashed any convective showers or thunderstorms so far today, and most all areas should remain dry through Saturday night.
444 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 Weak cold front brings isolated showers or storms this afternoon.
As the axis of an upper level trough slides to our east, a drier airmass will continue to filter in from the northwest. However, there will still be plenty of moisture in the low levels. Otherwise, skies will be coming mostly clear with lows in the lower 70s inland and mid 70s along the coast.
/issued 850 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016/ A very moist and unstable air mass covering the forecast area this morning (via 12Z Raob data) combined with daytime heating the sea breeze circulation and some additional lift from a 500MB vort max approaching from the northwest will lead to scattered to numerous showers and storms over the region the remainder of today with the highest rain chances and storm coverage expected over northern and central zones, as well as over interior locations as the sea breeze moves inland during the afternoon.
Continued confluent flow aloft will maintain high pressure at the surface. Average 850mb temperatures around 11-12C will support typical early June highs in the low 80s.
Attention then turns back to the high plains with expected convective development that will likely evolve into a storm cluster or complex.
1234 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016 The short term concerns are cloud extent today and cooler temperatures into tonight. Cool pocket of air at h85 of +6 to +8C should yield max temperatures in the lower 70s in western Wisconsin. Sunshine should be prevalent most areas with light winds as the high pressure ridge slides southeast.
225 PM PDT FRI JUL 1 2016 An upper low approaching the Sierra will bring thunderstorms this evening main to areas southeast of I-80. The low only slowly pulls east Saturday with more storms possible. If anything, it looks less, and more confined to the southeast as warmer air aloft moves in over the Sierra Front.
By tonight the mid level moisture and very weak instability may allow for some light shower activity along and south of the Missouri River, but confidence and coverage are on the low side.
Temperatures in most locations are in the low to middle 90s.
This area also appeared to have some support from upper level diffluence on the edge of the ridge centered across far west Texas and stronger northwest flow across Oklahoma. At the surface, a developing lee side trough will continue to deepen aiding stronger southerly winds overnight. This should help keep temperatures a touch warmer than previous nights. Main storm chances though look to hold off until Saturday afternoon as large scale lift from the passing upper level trough coincides with peak heating.
The cold front is forecast to be near Hays to Dodge City and Meade by mid afternoon with the best chances for storms near and east of the front. Strong to severe storms are possible mainly along and east of the cold front with 2000 to 3000 J/kg CAPE and strong mid level shear.
329 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 Weak cold front brings isolated showers or storms this afternoon.
Warmer conditions expected on Saturday with the heavier precipitation shifting north into Kansas/Missouri.
/issued 1100 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016/ Regional 88Ds rather quiet this morning as ridging aloft has built ewd a bit from yesterday. High pressure with drier air continues to overspread the region. /issued 324 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016/ Quite a range of temperatures across the US this morning with the upper plain states reporting upper 40s to mid 50s as a cold front pushes into Missouri this morning. Rain chances are also falling as the ridge aloft builds back in from the west.
High pressure will continue keep the region mostly sunny and dry although the airmass will become unstable into the early evening. Ridge has flattened in this area. A stream of moisture is under the large scale ridging pattern from Dillon to near Glasgow. with highs into the mid to upper 80s across the lower elevations. across the higher terrain.
burn scars and areas with training storms have the highest risk for flash flooding. Weak mid and upper level QG ascent associated with a slow moving trough near the Four Corners region will continue over the area through Saturday morning. The upper level trough will move out of the area Saturday night replaced with increasing subsidence from an incoming ridge.
221 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 High pressure will build into the area overnight and Saturday. Water vapor imagery showing short wave pushing eastward into the eastern great lakes while surface analysis has cold front moving through the Ohio valley. Visible satellite indicating diminishing trends in stratocu cloud cover and expect this to continue as high pressure builds into the region.
The forcing will be invading a dry airmass as the SFC ridging only slowly propagates off to the east. mainly dry after the morning activity dissipates with slightly warmer temps. Some storms may form over the high plains later Saturday, but with weak forcing and meager instability to the east, confidence in convection making it east into the area is low.
312 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016 Upper level high will translate across the panhandles through tonight. This will allow an upper level short wave trough to move across the region on Saturday and Saturday night.
Given latest guidance, believe the threat of flash flooding extends farther east and will therefore expand the watch into the San Juan mountains and the lower elevations of La Plata and Archuleta counties.
Otherwise scattered cloud cover continues to filter in from the northwest ahead of a cold front. On Saturday, as the upper-level trough pushes towards the east coast, an approaching disturbance in weak northwesterly flow combined with the lingering front could develop a few showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening.
The cold front is forecast to be near Hays to Dodge City and Meade by mid afternoon with the best chances for storms near and east of the front. Strong to severe storms are possible mainly along and east of the cold front with 2000 to 3000 J/kg CAPE and strong mid level shear. For Saturday night, a cold front will continue to move east into central Kansas with lingering strong to severe thunderstorms mainly east of Dodge City into parts of south central Kansas.
245 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 Scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will accompany a cold front across the region this afternoon.
Cloudy skies are developing/working into the far western forecast zones /west river/ this morning, and light winds from the southeast will advect coolish dry air across the cwa off this cool dry high pressure system situated across the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. Despite cool Canadian high pressure overhead this morning, high clouds have slid in from the west overnight thanks to pesky northwest flow aloft and clouds rounding the ridge over the western states. The ridge will remain across most of the forecast area. As we move into the weekend it looks like the building 500MB ridge and continued southerly flow at the surface with the next trough still to our west.
so fairly confident that scattered thunderstorms will develop across the high plains along and east of I25 due to persistent upslope flow and convergence along the Laramie Range. Cooler temperatures and cloud cover will result in lower instability. As a ridge axis aloft builds into Wyoming Saturday night.
127 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016 The cold front responsible for the overnight convection is currently exiting the sthrn and ern FA and should be completely out of the CWA by 12Z.
(Issued 1058 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016) A upper-level trough and associated sfc front are moving towards the area currently, with recent increases in low-lvl convective cu noted upstream in West Tennessee.
Return flow around the high allows next developing system/pcpn chances to start to sneak into our western Ozark counties late tonight/early tmrw morning, trying to spread across and dirty the bottom of the High during the daytime tmrw.
/15/ For the Today through Saturday night period, predawn water vapor imagery and model analysis showed the ArkLaMiss under an upper trough with northwest flow across the CWA. This feature was around a subtropical ridge 592 dkm high centered over northwest Mexico. The upper trough axis will push off to the east as the flat ridge exerts its influence from the Southern Plains. It will once again be less humid today with dewpoints in the 60s, while on Saturday dewpoints will creep into the lower 70s in some areas. Lows for tonight will be from the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Lows for Saturday night will be in the lower to middle 70s.
/issued 412 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): Mid level ridging (591 dam) will persist over the Gulf and Texas, supporting high pressure (1014 mb) at the surface. Afternoon heat index values, roughly from the Lower Valley inland along the Rio Grande will register in the 105 to 110 degree range for a few hours each afternoon, and from 100 to 105 degrees at most northern and western areas, raising the threat of heat advisory conditions.
214 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016 A midlevel ridge centered over TX to dominate our weather through this holiday weekend.
305 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 A cold front over the Great Lakes will push southeast across central Pa later this afternoon and this evening. High pressure will then build over the northeast conus over the weekend.
424 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 This Afternoon-Tonight: Temperatures aloft a tad warmer than yesterday, leading to a slightly less steep mid level lapse rate.
Window for additional storms developing this afternoon is shutting quickly, as the main trough axis and attendant cold front cross our region. High pressure will build in from the northwest, becoming centered over northern Indiana by daybreak Saturday. A northerly flow through the night will bring some cooler air briefly down to the Ohio Valley.
336 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016 Upper level high pressure will remain in place across the region through Saturday and result in seasonably hot and rain-free weather. There are some subtle weather changes expected late in the holiday weekend as a short wave trough and cold front enters the region from the west.
Partly cloudy skies are prevailing across South-Central Texas with temperatures currently in the lower to middle 90s across the area. For tonight, lows will drop down in the lower to middle 70s with mostly clear skies becoming partly to mostly cloudy by daybreak. Tomorrow should be rain free for most of the area as the ridge continues to build in. High temperatures tomorrow will be a degree or two warmer than today.
Where it's been raining, temperatures are a bit cooler in the mid to upper 60s. Low temperatures tonight will be a touch warmer than the upper 30s to mid 40s the cwa felt last night, as return flow southeasterly winds and partial cloud cover help hold temperatures up, generally in the upper 40s to mid 50s throughout the region.
102 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 Low pressure over Lake Huron will continue to move east today dragging a cold front across the local area.
306 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 Weak cold front brings isolated showers or storms this afternoon.
435 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016 For this weekend, deep layer ridging with anticyclonic flow will maintain hot and mostly rain-free conditions.
226 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016 We are getting to the summer doldrums which means high pressure is the dominant weather feature. All models are showing an upper high either overhead or very close by giving us hot and mostly dry weather with the exception of a few storms mainly over the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains.
although forecast soundings continue to indicate decent drying aloft with mid/upper-level ridge axis just off to our west. Rain chances increase slightly again for mid-week as a weakness in the ridging aloft develops over the wrn Gulf states.
Deep monsoonal moisture will remain over the region Saturday as the associated positive tilted trough continues to make its way across Utah and Colorado. The general flow will change from southerly to northwesterly on Saturday as the trough passes through which will change the areas which receive enhanced rainfall and allow drier air to filter in. Forecast soundings do indicate slower storm motion as the trough passes and winds change direction so something else to consider.
Independence Day still looks to be dry with slightly warmer temps.
208 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 Weak cold front brings isolated showers or storms this afternoon.
cool Canadian high pressure dominates over the upper midwest with mostly sunny skies and light northeast winds and temperatures in the lower to middle 70s. High clouds in the high plains are moving slowly east as weak disturbance develops.
On Saturday upper ridging over the Bahamas and offshore the southeast Florida coast combined with a surface and mid level trough over the southeastern states and the Florida Panhandle will continue to maintain a deep layered south to southwest wind flow over the forecast area. The synoptic pattern of upper level ridging continues to dominate through the forecast period with the low level subtropical ridge axis extending down across the central Florida peninsula.
Subsidence from the build- ing upper ridge likely the main reason.
Meanwhile dewpoints in Middle Tennessee and Central Kentucky have climbed back into the low to middle 60's.
High pressure center remains aloft of the region, with hot and humid conditions persisting through the period.
/ISSUED 310 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016/ No major changes to the forecast in the foreseeable future as North Texas weather will continue to be dominated by strong upper ridging for the next several days. The center of the upper high will oscillate between the southern Plains and the 4-corners region over the next 10 days and these slight variations will only impact temperatures by a few degrees here and there. the ridging will be centered just to our west leaving North Texas with weak winds and warm temperatures. This will keep the upper ridge from amplifying but it will also help strengthen southerly flow into North Texas.
Best chances of convection will be at KCNM, closer to the higher terrain. /issued 351 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016/ An upper level trough is over the Great Lakes region and an upper low is over Arizona. Showers and thunderstorms are possible today across the higher terrain and areas along and west of the Upper Trans Pecos.
Additionally, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were occurring near the I-35 corridor in southern Kansas and Oklahoma in association with a mid-level short wave trough. We will then need to monitor a warm front returning north across the area along with any remaining convective outflows. One detriment to new convection will be the presence of short wave ridging.
1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016 High pressure will dominate the weather across central Illinois today, providing partly to mostly sunny skies and cool conditions. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms continue along and east of a cold front, which at 2 am was located roughly along the I-55 corridor. The latest surface observations showing some patchy fog and low clouds immediately behind the cold front, but forecast soundings indicate the depth of the moisture to be quite shallow, so what fog and stratus that does develop won't be around for very long this morning as high pressure to our northwest shifts southeast into the Midwest. The NAM is most aggressive in overspreading the rain over the CWA Saturday evening, but the slower GFS/ECMWF solution is preferred with the highest rain chances not arriving until late evening over the northeast CWA.
The boundary associated with the leading (S/SW) edge of the ridge is across southern and central Kansas, which will keep the majority of the rain across that area through the day. As a mid level trough comes on shore in the Pacific southwest and moves into the 4-corner region the boundary will begin its lift to the north.
Cold front located from southeast Nebraska southwest through the Oklahoma panhandle is serving as the focus for expansive line of thunderstorms tonight.
938 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016 High pressure slowly slides offshore through Friday.
Expect Friday to be the hottest of the two afternoons as mid/upper level high pressure now over the southern Plains bulges farther east into the region. However, a cold front will approach later tomorrow afternoon.
Broad surface ridging over the northern Gulf is expected to expand by early Friday morning, with more southerly winds over the Gulf tonight pushing slightly deeper moisture towards the Upper Texas Coast. Will need to keep an eye on the placement of the upper ridge late in the TAF period with a few higher resolution models show disturbances rotating under the ridge Friday evening, bringing in additional isolated SHRA from the northeast/east.
Water Vapor Satellite trends this afternoon place a weak upper level low over Central Kentucky. This very humid air combined with temperatures as of 3 pm CDT in the middle to upper 90s has produced heat index values between 105 to 115 with the highest values mainly along and west of the Mississippi River. The Mid-South will be on the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge axis centered over the Southern Plains into at least Friday.
VFR conditions will continue through Friday with persistence as upper level ridge of high pressure allows for diurnal changes to prevail. /issued 412 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016/ Hot and humid across the Four State Region this afternoon under a large upper level ridge of high pressure centered over central Texas and expanding across most of the Southern Plains and into the Middle Mississippi Valley. Showers and thunderstorms have developed around the Northeast, East, and Southeast outer periphery of the ridge across Arkansas and parts of North Louisiana, and over Mississippi and Southeast Louisiana. Over the next several days the upper level ridge will be shifting east gradually with a continued trend of near 100 degree temperatures with humidity levels high enough to keep the heat index values above 105 degrees into the later parts of the weekend.
Northwest winds will decrease this evening as high pressure settles in over the region. Overnight lows will be rather cool with most locations dropping into the low to mid 50s. This high will remain in place on Friday with generally light winds across the area.
811 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016 Water vapor satellite imagery is showing an upper level low spinning over and just east of the Bahamas, which is forecast to very slowly drift west towards Florida through the upcoming weekend. Meanwhile, a stalled trough boundary over northern Florida is contributing to an unsettled weather pattern, with deep moisture and scattered to numerous daily thunderstorms. High pressure will continue to ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend, then gradually sink south during the first half of the week.
Some locations in the higher southwest valleys had overnight lows dropped nearly 10 degrees. High pressure remains in place over the Northern Rockies for continued dry conditions and widespread VFR conditions tonight and Friday morning. Axis of upper level ridge moves to eastern Montana by 18Z Friday for an increasingly moist southwest flow aloft over the forecast area.
Nudged pop grids/thunderstorm coverage upward this evening and overnight, through sunrise Friday, as cold front boundary continues to slide south through a very moist atmosphere. A cold front will slowly drift southward across much of western Kansas tonight with the highest rainfall chances north of Dodge City and up around Syracuse to Hays. Rainfall estimates could exceed an inch or two in that area of best isentropic lift north of the cold front. For Friday, the cold front will be near or just south of Medicine Lodge with a continued small chances for showers and thunderstorms with mostly cloudy skies.
Then as next system approaches later this evening, will see an increase in clouds with storms developing ahead of cold front. Overnight lows will be mild in the low to mid 70s. Byrd Convection is expected on Friday as a cold front drops southeastward through our forecast area.
/issued 348 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016/ The area is cooking this afternoon under a large dome of high pressure. Temperatures were in the mid to upper 90s inland to the lower 90s along the coast.
Still, with the short wave trough in the vicinity of the area, can not rule out isolated to scattered activity to threaten at times through the overnight. Upstream of the area, an area of low pressure was moving across Ontario with a cold front trailing south into the Plains. Outside of these showers and any thunderstorms some breaks in the clouds will occur and with a moist airmass in place in the lower levels patchy fog will develop and might become dense in a few spots.
/issued 334 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016/ Upper level pattern shows one high pressure situated west of the CWA across central Texas and another in the western Atlantic Ocean. The closer proximity of the ridge to the west will have some influence of rain chances across the CWA. Increased subsidence near to the high pressure will reduce coverage closer to the Atchafalaya Basin vs points farther east. Dewpoints will remain high, upper 70s to 80 and highs in the lower to mid 90s the next couple days.
633 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016 Showers and isolated thunderstorms moving through the area the remainder of this afternoon and into the early evening along the cold front. A really nice Friday taking shape as surface ridging continues across the area.
Breaks are now becoming more evident in this cloud cover especially over southeast Utah and southwest Colorado where a weak upper low and some embedded circulations are evident, allowing the sun to heat the surface and act on the abundant moisture in place, generating some showers and thunderstorms.
653 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016 Cold front is making steady progress across MN this afternoon, with dewpoints eventually falling into the upper 50s across western MN. Tonight and tomorrow, persistent NW winds from high pressure coming out of the nrn/Canadian Rockies will bring in much more pleasant air for the rest of the short term. High pressure will be in full control by tomorrow evening and will make for a very quiet weekend weather wise.
626 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016 Surface cold front was in the process of moving through the area this afternoon and at 19z extended from northwest Iowa through east central Nebraska into southwest Kansas.
846 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016 A weak frontal boundary along the southeast coast will remain well south of the local area through Friday, as high pressure becomes centered well off the New England coast.