Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure will keep skies mostly few/sct with low cu eroding into tonight, building once again on Tuesday. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 94 70 95 73 / 0 0 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 92 68 94 72 / 0 0 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 66 93 68 94 71 / 0 0 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 89 65 91 69 / 0 0 10 10 10.
Clear skies and light winds favored overnight as high pressure builds into the region.
The front will linger to our south through late week as Bermuda high pressure builds in from the east for the next several days. Showers and tstorms beginning to fizzle out this evening with cooler temps in their wake. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s by morning. Upper level ridging continues over the Carolinas through midweek, again leaving the primary focus for afternoon convection on the sea breeze. Winds should generally be SW/W overnight and Tuesday with seas dropping back to 2-4 feet for most areas Tuesday as weak ridging builds over area waters.
Some locations across the eastern-most Lower Keys may cool into the upper 70s overnight, although most locations along the island chain will remain in the lower 80s. A ridge axis currently stretching west through the Straits of Florida will lift northward Tuesday and Tuesday night.
907 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020 A weak low pressure trough will move off to the east tonight, then another will develop over the area on Tuesday.
High pressure will shift into Lower Michigan tonight, while a trough of low pressure begins to approach from the Central Plains.
706 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020 Mid to upper level ridging will continue to dominate the weather pattern across SE Texas.
Otherwise, it should be a quiet evening and overnight, with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. Medium to High Mid level and surface ridging dominate tonight. The surface and mid level ridging shifts eastward into Tuesday.
This high is ridging east acrs TX toward the NW Gulf coast.
The front will linger to our south through late week as Bermuda high pressure builds in from the east for the next several days. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s by morning. Weak ridging builds from the SW across the region tomorrow, setting up a standard summer day in Eastern NC. Upper level ridging continues over the Carolinas through midweek, again leaving the primary focus for afternoon convection on the sea breeze. Winds should generally be SW/W overnight and Tuesday with seas dropping back to 2-4 feet for most areas Tuesday as weak ridging builds over area waters.
A weak secondary cold front will be the focus for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms tonight across southern and east central North Dakota. At 6 PM CDT a cold front was progressing through eastern North Dakota. A closed upper low sits over northern Alberta/Saskatchewan early this afternoon, with a trough axis extending down through Saskatchewan toward northeast Montana. To the west of this trough, a drier and cooler air mass is advecting into western North Dakota. As the upper trough axis pivots toward northern North Dakota later this afternoon, there may be enough cyclonic forcing to generate a few showers or weak thunderstorms, but a lack of boundary layer moisture will likely prevent stronger or more widespread activity from developing.
Upper trough and associated surface boundary will begin to lift back northward, while an east- west elongated stream of mid-level vorticity lies over our area. High pressure gradually building back towards the local waters, and generally favorable boating conditions.
714 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020 Lead surface trof has pushed to an FGN-FSE-DTL line with a trailing cold front still back in central ND. Severe threat is mainly ahead of that surface trof line, and into northeastern MN. After the main upper trough axis shifts east a secondary lobe of positive vorticity advection moves south of our CWA and elevated showers/storms may redevelop into the southern half of our CWA late tonight into Tuesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along a cold front during this period.
The pattern will be evolving from a dominant mid/upper high across the southwest/south central states to an elongated high across the entire southern U. Tomorrow will still be warmer than normal with high enough humidity levels to produce heat index readings of 108 or higher, so a Heat Advisory has been issued valid from 10 am to 8 pm.
536 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020 An upper trough over the Pacific NW is pushing into the northern plains, with a jet streak rounding its base. The cold front has crossed the CWA, leaving breezy northwesterly winds behind it. Limited moisture behind the cold front will keep instability low across much of the CWA; however, with MLCAPE of 1-2 kJ/kg across south central SD, along with 40-50 kts 0-6 km shear there (even higher farther west), a few strong to severe storms will be possible. Overnight, a secondary cold front will push through the region. As cool high pressure slides into the area Tuesday, precip will diminish in the morning.
356 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020 A weak, mainly dry cold front will move continue pushing south into central Utah today, where it will weaken in place through Tuesday. High pressure will remain over the Desert Southwest Monday.
1034 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020 A weak low pressure trough will move off to the east tonight, then another will develop over the area on Tuesday.
907 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020 A ridge of high pressure will build over the area through the week, maintaining hot and humid weather along with isolated thunderstorms. Storms could increase in coverage again this weekend, as the ridge flattens and brings the storm track a little closer to the area. Geopotential heights will begin to rise across the area Tuesday as a ridge axis builds across the Tennessee River Valley. This will allow temps to once again surge into the low- mid 90s, and will also keep showers/tstms fairly isolated.
Did add some patchy fog to locations in and around the Pine Ridge and the Cheyenne Ridge including the Wildcat Hills south of Scottsbluff. As a cold front drifts southward overnight, the chance for showers will continue after midnight north of a Douglas to Scottsbluff line. Quite a variance in the models with respect to maximum temperatures with the NAM MOS much cooler than the GFS MOS.
A subtropical ridge over the southern plains is likely to expand to the eastern seaboard during the second half of the week, bringing increasing warmth and humidity. Radiational cooling under the high should result in the coolest night we've seen in a couple of weeks, with readings dipping to the lower 50s in the coolest valleys of the north and to the lower 60s across the southeast counties.
1102 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020 An upper trough over the Pacific NW is pushing into the northern plains, with a jet streak rounding its base. The cold front has crossed the CWA, leaving breezy northwesterly winds behind it. Limited moisture behind the cold front will keep instability low across much of the CWA; however, with MLCAPE of 1-2 kJ/kg across south central SD, along with 40-50 kts 0-6 km shear there (even higher farther west), a few strong to severe storms will be possible. Overnight, a secondary cold front will push through the region. As cool high pressure slides into the area Tuesday, precip will diminish in the morning.
The ridge remains entrenched over the area and will see little change from yesterday indicating that we should see temperatures this afternoon be fairly close to yesterday.
137 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020 High pressure aloft will build over NC today through the end of the week. The mid/upper trough has passed offshore. Heights are rising across the region in the rear of the trough. After 12z, expect sunny to mostly sunny skies and seasonably hot temperatures in the lower to mid 90s. This trough is expected to be located around the I-95 corridor this afternoon making this the location with the slight chance POP. Lows tonight with clear to mostly clear skies should range from 65-70 NW-N into the lower 70s SE. Generally a persistence summertime forecast under the ridge aloft. Highs again in the lower to mid 90s.
1214 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020 A trailing cold front is still working its way across northwest MN into eastcentral and southern ND through this overnight period. Lead surface trof has pushed to an FGN-FSE-DTL line with a trailing cold front still back in central ND. Severe threat is mainly ahead of that surface trof line, and into northeastern MN. After the main upper trough axis shifts east a secondary lobe of positive vorticity advection moves south of our CWA and elevated showers/storms may redevelop into the southern half of our CWA late tonight into Tuesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along a cold front during this period.
141 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020 A weak low pressure trough will move off to the east tonight, then another will develop over the area on Tuesday.
1130 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020 Dry and increasingly warm weather is expected through mid week under high pressure. Dry weather and mainly clear skies are expected overnight under building high pressure.
346 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020 The upper ridge drifts eastward over the OH Valley through the short term. slight chance pops have been included for the higher terrain of northeast GA.
With the southwest wind ~ 5 mph, upper 70s to near 80 will likely be the low this morning.
111 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020 A ridge of high pressure will build over the area through the week, maintaining hot and humid weather along with isolated thunderstorms. Storms could increase in coverage again this weekend, as the ridge flattens and brings the storm track a little closer to the area. Geopotential heights will begin to rise across the area Tuesday as a ridge axis builds across the Tennessee River Valley. This will allow temps to once again surge into the low- mid 90s, and will also keep showers/tstms fairly isolated.
/issued 733 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020/ While the pesky stratus deck has improved and now just some more typical summertime afternoon cu field is in place, the rest of today should remain unimpactful and even more pop limited due to the much drier column and upper ridging. Tuesday looks almost cookie-cutter with slight pops in the far NE mtns for isolated orographic enhancement and again slight pops in the far southern tier as we remain under the drier ridging and a bit broader NW flow aloft. We start the period with 500mb heights of 589dm and slight northwesterly flow and rise to as high as 596dm per model guidance as the southwestern US ridge expands east by Thu and down to around 592dm or so by the weekend.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 94 70 95 73 94 / 0 0 10 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 68 94 72 94 / 0 0 10 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 93 68 94 71 94 / 0 0 10 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 65 91 69 92 / 0 10 10 10 20.
131 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020 Dry and increasingly warm weather is expected through mid week under high pressure. Dry weather and mainly clear skies are expected overnight under building high pressure.
The core of a 595 dm 500 mb high will move over West Central Texas this afternoon, while the 850 mb thermal ridge will be at a very similar strength to what it was on Monday (850 mb temperatures around 29-32 deg C).
Aloft, troughing is found across the Eastern Seaboard, with ridging aligned from the Great Lakes to the Midwest and into the southern Plains. Temperatures currently range from the low to mid 60s. Lows will range from the low to mid 60s, with perhaps a bit more difference between the valleys and ridges, as light return flow ensues.
1048 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020 A moderately amplified pattern is seen on satellite imagery this afternoon across the Nation with a ridge axis is centered across our section of the Plains States, sandwiched between a trough to our east and another trough to our west. And, it is the trough to our west which will be the one driving our weather over the next couple of days; as the temperature spikes ahead of a cold front that may bring some storms to the region. This afternoon, we are watching a cold front developing across the Front Range of the northern Rockies, in response to the trough moving east along the northwest U.
High pressure is now over northern Ohio at this time. The high pressure will keep dry weather over the entire Mid-South for one more day. With the high now east of the region, winds will be from the southeast today which will allow temperatures to be a little warmer today with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
115 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020 A weak low pressure trough will move off to the east tonight, then another will develop over the area on Tuesday.
309 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020 07Z water vapor showed a closed low over Saskatchewan with a broad cyclonic pattern over the north plains. Meanwhile upper ridging over NM had been displaced further south along the Rio Grand valley. Otherwise the synoptic pattern favored southerly low level flow with low pressure over west TX and ridging along the MS river valley. The high dewpoints and highs in the middle 90s is expected to create heat indices around 105 for east central KS.
A few additional degrees of inland cooling is expected on Tuesday as onshore flow increases and high pressure weakens. An upper ridge centered over the Desert Southwest has been weakening since yesterday.
1156 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020 Clear skies and light winds favored overnight as high pressure builds into the region.
1122 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020 High pressure will bring quiet and seasonable weather to the region for tonight through much of Tuesday.
Trough axis has shifted well offshore of the Carolinas with a NW flow over the area and some weak upper level ridging. Highs may be slightly higher today compared to yesterday with upper level ridging beginning to build. Lows tonight will once again be in the low to mid 70s.
301 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020 With broad upper level troughing over the region, we will remain in cyclonic flow aloft through much of today. This will mean cooler temperatures with highs in the 70s and a slight chance of a shower or isolated thunderstorm across the southwest this afternoon. The upper ridge centered off the west coast nudges a big closer tonight and any isolated showers will diminish quickly with the loss of heating.
306 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020 Quiet and near seasonal wx conditions prevail over the mid TN Valley this early Tue morning, as a large dome of high pressure moves ewd across the OH Valley states. Early morning lows Wed look to trend in the upper 60s/near 70F before rebounding well into the lower/perhaps mid 90s that afternoon, with max heat indices climbing to around 100F in some locations. The upper ridge pattern then looks to move slightly more to the east over the ern Gulf states heading into Thu, as an enhanced W/SW flow regime develops over the Midwest/OH Valley regions. Otherwise, unseasonably hot temps will again develop with highs in the lower/perhaps mid 90s and max heat indices around 100-104F.
137 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020 An upper trough will push off the coast overnight. Partly cloudy skies are expected overnight and the the combination of clouds and relatively high dewpoints will limit radiational cooling and overnight lows are expected in the low to mid 70s. The upper level trough pushes off the coast and upper heights will be building. Temperatures perhaps a degree or two warmer than today.
910 PM PDT Mon Jul 13 2020 High pressure over the Southwest will continue to weaken and shift east this week, easing the heat across the region.
A weak, mainly dry cold front will stall and weaken across central Utah tonight. High pressure will shift into the southern Plains through midweek. An upper trough crossing northern Idaho and Montana has pushed a weak cold front into northern Utah, and this boundary is progged to stall over central Utah tonight into tomorrow. Expect a generally quiet night except for some locally gusty south winds continuing across southern Utah and some enhanced northwest winds in favored downslope areas behind the cold front. The cold front, along with the flattening of the ridge and lowering of heights across the area in response to the trough north of the area will lead to a slight cooldown over the next couple of days. Northerly winds remain in place through late tonight behind a cold front, returning to southerly drainage flow around 09- 10Z.
This s/w is depicted well in the H7 thetae analysis, with said thetae ridge advecting east across the state this morning. Chances for severe look relatively low this morning as the highest moisture and instability has shifted south of the CWA with the sfc front.
257 AM MDT Tue Jul 14 2020 The midlevel trough is moving off into central Canada this morning, with zonal/WNW flow aloft across the state. The cold front did drop along the Continental Divide yesterday, but was not able to cross into Southern WY, so southern WY will remain in the dry and breezy regime today. With modest instability aloft and the remnants of the cold front, Natrona and Johnson County will see a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
309 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020 A ridge of high pressure will build over the area through the week, maintaining hot and humid weather along with isolated thunderstorms. Storms could increase in coverage again this weekend, as the ridge flattens and brings the storm track a little closer to the area. Slightly drier air has built into the Carolinas the wake of yesterday's convection and weak surface cold front now stalling just off the coast. The bigger changes have actually occurred aloft where the atmosphere is now sharply drier and a little warmer due to subsidence downstream of an upper ridge building in from the west.
The stratus cloud deck across SD should move south with the cold front and mix out across Nebraska this afternoon.
A clear and quiet evening is in store across the area with high pressure in control at the surface and aloft. Winds have been light out of the north around 5 to 10 mph in response to this high, and T/Td's for mid July are fairly tolerable, with many locations seeing temperatures in the low to mid 80s at this hour with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. High temperatures will be a touch warmer than today, with many locations seeing upper 80s to near 90. Upper-level ridge slide off to the east as the upper jet continues to straddle the US/Canadian border.
225 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020 Heat continues to be the focus for the forecast period, with models trending slowly weaker with the upper high.
121 AM MDT Tue Jul 14 2020 Active westerly flow will persist through most of the period as the western CONUS ridge remains mainly flat. Deep Canadian upper trough continues to shift slowly east. Much cooler day expected today, with most places seeing 70s for highs, 50s and 60s in the Black Hills. Much warmer conds expected Fri with temps well into the 90s and lower 100s, supporting the warmest day in the period.
Strong mid to upper level ridge will continue to result in fair WX conditions.
300 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020 Dry and increasingly warm weather is expected through mid week under high pressure.
257 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020 A trough of low pressure crosses New England today accompanied by showers and a few thunderstorms, some containing torrential downpours.
411 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020 High pressure will gradually push east of the area today.
345 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020 High pressure aloft will build over NC today through the end of the week. The mid/upper trough has passed offshore. Heights are rising across the region in the rear of the trough. After 12z, expect sunny to mostly sunny skies and seasonably hot temperatures in the lower to mid 90s. This trough is expected to be located around the I-95 corridor this afternoon making this the location with the slight chance POP. Lows tonight with clear to mostly clear skies should range from 65-70 NW-N into the lower 70s SE. Generally a persistence summertime forecast under the ridge aloft. Highs again in the lower to mid 90s.
1231 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020 Showers and storms starting to spread into the western cwa this evening with a short wave trough. High pressure settles in over the area Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night, bringing a return to dry conditions. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 50s west to the lower 60s east, with highs on Tuesday in the 70s. In the upper levels, northwest flow aloft starts the out period, with the upper ridge sitting over the Rockies. As we approach the weekend, the upper ridge shifts over the midwest, setting up a warming trend moving into the weekend.
1138 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020 Temperatures will continue to fall into the 60s overnight, with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. High pressure will shift into Lower Michigan tonight, while a trough of low pressure begins to approach from the Central Plains.
The front will linger to our south through late week as Bermuda high pressure builds in from the east for the next several days. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s by morning. Weak ridging builds from the SW across the region tomorrow, setting up a standard summer day in Eastern NC. Upper level ridging continues over the Carolinas through midweek, again leaving the primary focus for afternoon convection on the sea breeze. Patchy fog has formed early this morning mainly south of US Hwy 70, where the highest ground moisture and clear skies/calm winds are prevailing. Winds should generally be SW/W overnight and Tuesday with seas dropping back to 2-4 feet for most areas Tuesday as weak ridging builds over area waters.
1016 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020 High pressure will gradually push east of the area today.
As high pressure over the Desert Southwest continues to weaken, onshore flow continues to push marine air well inland with current temperatures across the interior a few to as much as 10 deg F cooler compared to this time yesterday. Meanwhile interior locations will see temperatures today to be similar to or slightly cooler compared to yesterday. Another upper level trough is forecast to develop near the West Coast by late week resulting in only minor day to day fluctuations in temperatures, especially near the coast.
Heat continues to be the focus for the forecast period, with models trending slowly weaker with the upper high.
304 AM MDT Tue Jul 14 2020 Will continue to see isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms along the MT/WY and MT/Dakotas state lines today as weak energy rotates around the upper low and interacts with the 700mb front. Ridge begins to build in from the southwest along with the flow aloft backing to the west. This will bring sunny skies and warmer temperatures, with highs in the low to mid 80s by the afternoon.
Current water vapor satellite imagery shows the presence of a broad ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Quiet and near seasonal wx conditions prevail over the mid TN Valley this early Tue morning, as a large dome of high pressure moves ewd across the OH Valley states. Early morning lows Wed look to trend in the upper 60s/near 70F before rebounding well into the lower/perhaps mid 90s that afternoon, with max heat indices climbing to around 100F in some locations. The upper ridge pattern then looks to move slightly more to the east over the ern Gulf states heading into Thu, as an enhanced W/SW flow regime develops over the Midwest/OH Valley regions. Otherwise, unseasonably hot temps will again develop with highs in the lower/perhaps mid 90s and max heat indices around 100-104F.
Broad upper-lvl anticyclonic flow will build in from the W, resulting in a very stagnant pattern and upwards of a 594 hPa upper high over much of the Srn US. At the sfc, Srly winds will keep WAA/moisture advection in place, keeping Td's in the mid to upper 70s and temps exceeding the low to mid 90s over much of the state.
High pressure is now over northern Ohio at this time. The high pressure will keep dry weather over the entire Mid-South for one more day. With the high now east of the region, winds will be from the southeast today which will allow temperatures to be a little warmer today with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. By Wednesday, a weak warm front will move into the region from the west.