Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
That upper support in conjunction with the low convective temperature under those very cold mid levels (~-22 to -24 C at 500 mb), will maintain varying degrees of showers across the area at least until sunset.
Some thin cirrus will work south on the back side of the upper level trough centered across the eastern Great Lakes but this shouldn't spoil an otherwise clear night. An upper low looks to develop across the northern Rockies late in the week as a Pacific trough comes ashore.
1223 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022 (This evening through Monday) Cold front that moved through earlier today will continue to push southward from reinforced northerly winds. Behind the front, drier and cooler air will overspread the area into tomorrow. Dropped the overnight lows a little cooler than NBM owing to the drier air and sufficient radiational cooling. Northerly winds will weaken tomorrow, which will allow for highs to get up into the low to mid 80s with sunny skies.
Morning water vapor satellite pics showing a closed low over Puget Sound. Less evidence of it on the visible pics as there is minimal cloud cover associated with the low. Today will be clear and unseasonably warm as the low tracks northeastward into Canada.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) At long last, drier and cooler air will begin filtering into South- Central Texas as our first true cold front of the Fall arrives. This will result in cool, crisp mornings in the 50s for many with a few spots still in the lower 60s, to afternoons with a warm and dry feeling. This evening, winds should lighten up to less than 10 mph, and with clear skies, low humidity, and light winds, expect temperatures to tumble quickly with loss of daytime heating, with some spots over the Hill Country perhaps dipping into the lower 50s by sunrise Tuesday.
1237 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022 (Today and tonight) More seasonable temperatures are expected today following a cold front yesterday. An upper level ridge that had built over the western CONUS this past weekend will begin to shift overhead today.
(This evening through Tuesday) A cooler and drier airmass has moved into the forecast area behind yesterday's cold front. The upper-level flow is in the process of turning northeasterly as a ridge aloft builds from the Southern Rockies over West Texas. Surface ridging will still hold sway tonight and with mostly clear skies, we expect another relatively cool night, with lows mainly in the 50s - and perhaps some upper 40s across the same areas as last night. This will result in warmer temperatures with afternoon highs back above average - namely in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Northwest flow aloft remains over the region through Tuesday, with a large area of high pressure building south into eastern areas of the Northern Plains tonight into tomorrow. Upper level high pressure building east into the Great Plains Wed-Thu will bring continued dry weather conditions along with a warming trend.
615 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022 As of this afternoon, a potent upper trough is located across the Great Lakes region with northwesterly mid-level and upper level flow over the central plains. The overall pattern is set to remain in place as the Great Lakes trough pauses its eastward motion to dig into the Mid-Atlantic region. However, the upper ridge across the western CONUS will gradually translate south and east slowly putting the central plains under the influence of this ridge axis.
Dry conditions will prevail for most of the area with some showers possible in the higher terrain around Kings Canyon National Park today and Tuesday afternoons. Today looks to be the hottest day this week as the upper level ridge will shift to the east.
Clear skies prevail across the Medford forecast area this evening, except for areas of marine stratus over the coastal waters and along the coast and some dissipating cumulus over the inland ridges. The mostly clear and dry conditions come courtesy of a strong upper level ridge over the area that is now weakening as a long wave trough approaches the coast. Humidity recoveries will be moderate over the ridges Monday night. The incoming trough will make its presence felt beginning Tuesday in the form of slightly cooler inland temperatures and gusty winds over the ridges and east of the Cascades. Inland highs Tuesday will around 5 degrees cooler than the Monday highs, except 5 to 10 degrees cooler in the Umpqua Basin due to an increased marine influence.
There are some much cooler sites already like a pair of 59s for Magnolia and El Dorado. We will see around another 10 degrees or so of cooler readings by daybreak. Where is my light jacket, Fall has finally arrived in the four state area and the good news is that even more high pressure currently in the midWest U.
631 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) With the cold front well south of our area, we have a much drier and slightly cooler airmass in place over West Central Texas. Combined with the dry air in place, this will create prime radiational cooling conditions - meaning lows will be on the cooler side in the mid to upper 50s with drainage spots and low lying areas potentially dropping even further. The large upper trough across the eastern CONUS will continue to drift east. In response, the upper ridge across the western CONUS will also slide east with the upper high reasserting itself over the Four Corners region and Texas. As such, daytime highs tomorrow will be a touch warmer than today in the upper 80s to low 90s.
628 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022 (This evening through Tuesday night) High pressure continues to dominate the western CONUS for the short term and into the extended. Lows will be a bit warmer through the week, but given the continued longer nights and light winds, that does the continued cooler trends. Given the continued high pressure over the area we'll continue to see above normal temperatures, with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
High pressure will continue to bring above normal temperatures and relatively light winds to central and northern Nevada through Tuesday.
301 PM MDT Mon Sep 26 2022 The region remains under an amplified ridge of high pressure over the next 36 hours.
854 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022 An upper level trough over the Northeast U.
605 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) A cooler and drier airmass has moved into the forecast area behind yesterday's cold front. The upper-level flow is in the process of turning northeasterly as a ridge aloft builds from the Southern Rockies over West Texas. Surface ridging will still hold sway tonight and with mostly clear skies, we expect another relatively cool night, with lows mainly in the 50s - and perhaps some upper 40s across the same areas as last night. This will result in warmer temperatures with afternoon highs back above average - namely in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
547 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022 A trough aloft will gradually shift east of the area overnight into Tuesday, which will bring lighter winds and slightly cooler readings. High pressure at the surface will nose into the area on Tuesday and winds should remain mainly lighter than 15 mph.
627 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022 (Tonight through Tuesday night) At long last, drier and cooler air will begin filtering into South- Central Texas as our first true cold front of the Fall arrives. This will result in cool, crisp mornings in the 50s for many with a few spots still in the lower 60s, to afternoons with a warm and dry feeling. This evening, winds should lighten up to less than 10 mph, and with clear skies, low humidity, and light winds, expect temperatures to tumble quickly with loss of daytime heating, with some spots over the Hill Country perhaps dipping into the lower 50s by sunrise Tuesday.
High pressure centered over the southern Rocky Mountains will help to deliver moisture to northern Arizona, with thunderstorm chances returning to the forecast. High pressure in the mid levels was centered over Colorado during the afternoon. Over the coming days the high center will slowly sink southward to a position over New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. The flow around the high will produce a southeast to south flow across Arizona helping to deliver increasing moisture to the area.
916 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022 (Issued 916 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022) Some isolated showers continue across far eastern Wisconsin this evening as the moderate lapse rates and mid level moisture on the back side of an exiting trough keep these few showers sustained. Patterson (Issued 345 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022) Tonight through Tuesday night: Light showers have developed this afternoon owing to daytime heating and some pockets of vorticity aloft spinning around broad trough aloft. After a similar day to today expected tomorrow, albeit drier as the low shifts east, a better chance for areas of frost will occur for areas west of I-41 as skies will clear, winds will ease to fairly light speeds, and with dry low lvls, temperatures will tank into the low to mid 30s.
1051 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022 An upper level trough over the Northeast U.
629 PM MDT Mon Sep 26 2022 There are some convective clouds developing over the high mountains this afternoon. Models show the upper ridge to stay over Colorado tonight and Tuesday. The low level pressure and wind fields point to fairly normal drainage wind patterns tonight. On Tuesday the low level winds are northeasterly early, then east and southeasterly later in the day. With the instability and increase in moisture will go with scattered late day pops for the mountains and Palmer Ridge on Tuesday. 5 C cooler than today's highs.
546 PM MDT Mon Sep 26 2022 A broad ridge of high pressure over the Intermountain West will continue to dominate the weather pattern through the short term period. A weak disturbance will move across southern Alberta on Tuesday as the ridge axis slowly shifts east over the eastern Rockies by late Tuesday. The longwave pattern transitions by mid-week as a Pacific storm impacts the Pacific Northwest region and a flattening ridge of high pressure pushes east of the Rockies.
608 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022 Tonight and tomorrow: A deep longwave trough will remain draped across much of the eastern CONUS with a cool and dry airmass locked in across the Lower Mississippi Valley beneath northwest flow aloft.
(Rest of tonight) Clear skies are in place with the eastern edge of an area of high pressure building into the area.
Still watching a backdoor cold front that will work into way into the northeastern CWA between 10Z and 12Z early Tuesday morning, bringing a more prevailing northeast breeze across the CWA through the morning hours. A back-door cold front slides in Tuesday morning, leading to a wind shift out of the east as well as cooler temperatures due to CAA through the day on Tuesday, with highs in the low 60s to low 70s across the CWA (+/- 5 degrees from climatology).
947 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022 Wx map shows cold front well south of the coastal waters this evening.
636 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Latest surface analysis shows the cold front spanning SW to NE across the northern portion of the CWA with dewpoints dropping into the low 60s in Cotulla. Dry and mostly clear skies will lead to cooler nights through the week with tonight's lows reaching the mid 60s over the Coastal Plains.
An upper low looks to develop across the northern Rockies late in the week as a Pacific trough comes ashore.
(through Tuesday) A cold front will move southeast across the area Tonight, and stall just to the south Tuesday. North of the cold front, dewpoints will fall off sharply through Tuesday, with airmass feeling much drier inland SE GA, than it will feel across coastal NE FL. Lows Tonight will range from the lower 60s across inland SE GA to the lower 70s over coastal NE FL.
An upper ridge will remain over the area through Tuesday for dry and warm weather with elevated fire weather concerns.
1213 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) With the cold front well south of our area, we have a much drier and slightly cooler airmass in place over West Central Texas. Combined with the dry air in place, this will create prime radiational cooling conditions - meaning lows will be on the cooler side in the mid to upper 50s with drainage spots and low lying areas potentially dropping even further. The large upper trough across the eastern CONUS will continue to drift east. In response, the upper ridge across the western CONUS will also slide east with the upper high reasserting itself over the Four Corners region and Texas. As such, daytime highs tomorrow will be a touch warmer than today in the upper 80s to low 90s.
A ridge continues to dominate the weather for a few more days causing mostly sunny skies, warmer than average days, and cool, crisp nights.
340 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022 A slow moving upper level low pressure system will remain over the region through mid week, with showers and isolated thunderstorms possible, mainly over central NY.
As of this afternoon, a potent upper trough is located across the Great Lakes region with northwesterly mid-level and upper level flow over the central plains. The overall pattern is set to remain in place as the Great Lakes trough pauses its eastward motion to dig into the Mid-Atlantic region. However, the upper ridge across the western CONUS will gradually translate south and east slowly putting the central plains under the influence of this ridge axis.
257 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 Overall, a ridge building in the short term will keep most impactful weather at bay.
1219 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 (Tonight through Tuesday night) At long last, drier and cooler air will begin filtering into South- Central Texas as our first true cold front of the Fall arrives. This will result in cool, crisp mornings in the 50s for many with a few spots still in the lower 60s, to afternoons with a warm and dry feeling. This evening, winds should lighten up to less than 10 mph, and with clear skies, low humidity, and light winds, expect temperatures to tumble quickly with loss of daytime heating, with some spots over the Hill Country perhaps dipping into the lower 50s by sunrise Tuesday.
305 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022 Dry and cool early fall weather continues with a longwave upper trof residing over the eastern CONUS. Progged low-level thicknesses and 850mb temps suggest max temps a degree or two cooler than Monday.
(Today and tonight) We will remain wedged between high pressure off to the west and a broad trough across the eastern US. Look for slightly cooler temperatures across the region as mostly clear skies remain in place overnight.
A ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the areas weather tonight and tomorrow with mostly clear skies.
These conditions, along with plenty of sunshine, will allow for good warming potential, and the expectation is for high temperatures near the higher side of available guidance, around 10 degrees above normal.
1130 PM MDT Mon Sep 26 2022 A broad ridge of high pressure over the Intermountain West will continue to dominate the weather pattern through the short term period. A weak disturbance will move across southern Alberta on Tuesday as the ridge axis slowly shifts east over the eastern Rockies by late Tuesday. The longwave pattern transitions by mid-week as a Pacific storm impacts the Pacific Northwest region and a flattening ridge of high pressure pushes east of the Rockies.
Currently, the overall pattern continues to be slow to change with a highly amplified longwave trough and ridge in place across North America from east to west. Meanwhile, high pressure is the dominant feature for the foreseeable future across the central Plains. The eastern CONUS trough finally fills and lifts through the New England region. The western ridge begins to break down as a Pacific Low pressure system advances east.
It is the lowest again today. Slightly higher RH values will be found up toward I-64 where cooler temperatures will prevail.
1028 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022 A trough aloft will gradually shift east of the area overnight into Tuesday, which will bring lighter winds and slightly cooler readings. High pressure at the surface will nose into the area on Tuesday and winds should remain mainly lighter than 15 mph.
A large area of high pressure was located over central Canada and the Upper Midwest per the SPC mesoanalysis. Frost Potential Tonight: High pressure will continue to build into the Upper Mississippi Valley region, leading to mainly clear skies and light winds locally. The best chance for widespread frost is northwest of a Sterling, IL to Quad Cities to Fairfield, IA line, where forecast lows are in the low to mid 30s.
244 AM MDT Tue Sep 27 2022 There will be a slight movement in the upper ridge position as it shifts just a bit eastward, right over Colorado today. Temperatures will be slightly cooler today with some slight cooling in coming from the east along with a bit more cloudiness this afternoon.
250 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 Northwest mid/upper flow today will gradually transition to weak mid/upper flow as we see more influence from the mid/upper ridge across the Rockies.
An upper level trough remains anchored over much of the eastern CONUS with ridging over the West. The Tennessee Valley is on the eastern edge of a high pressure system centered over the Plains. This will result in a cool and dry northwesterly flow for today keeping afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s.
1216 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 (This evening through Tuesday) A cooler and drier airmass has moved into the forecast area behind yesterday's cold front. The upper-level flow is in the process of turning northeasterly as a ridge aloft builds from the Southern Rockies over West Texas. Surface ridging will still hold sway tonight and with mostly clear skies, we expect another relatively cool night, with lows mainly in the 50s - and perhaps some upper 40s across the same areas as last night. This will result in warmer temperatures with afternoon highs back above average - namely in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
High pressure was over northwest Arkansas at this time. This high will move slowly east today. The high will move away from the region and weaken with a larger area of high pressure moving into northern Wisconsin.
119 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Latest surface analysis shows the cold front spanning SW to NE across the northern portion of the CWA with dewpoints dropping into the low 60s in Cotulla. Dry and mostly clear skies will lead to cooler nights through the week with tonight's lows reaching the mid 60s over the Coastal Plains.
Temperatures will remain cooler than normal through the end of the week with overnight lows looking to fall below 40 degrees areawide tonight for the first time since the Spring. A large scale ridge located over the western CONUS paired with troughing over the Great Lakes Region is keeping northwest flow present aloft. This has kept the weather pretty quiet here locally aside from cooler than normal temperatures and breezy daytime conditions. An upper trough approaching the Pacific NW will push the ridge eastward, pinching the pressure gradient over the Midwest states. One limiting factor is surface winds remaining a few mph too strong for frost development with the center of the high remaining over the Upper Mississippi River Valley.
Discussion/Marine Water vapor imagery shows the upper trough axis over eastern Ohio and slowly moving east.
848 PM PDT Mon Sep 26 2022 High pressure is on the move eastward and will once again open the door to some monsoonal moisture midweek.
Canadian high pressure slides in from the northeast this morning bringing some caa. Temperatures today will only top out in the lower 60s across the east as a result.
1236 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 (This evening through Tuesday night) High pressure continues to dominate the western CONUS for the short term and into the extended. Lows will be a bit warmer through the week, but given the continued longer nights and light winds, that does the continued cooler trends. Given the continued high pressure over the area we'll continue to see above normal temperatures, with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
Closed low pressure was located over southeastern Ontario. A trough extended south of this feature into the Panhandle of Florida. South of this trough, hurricane Ian was present just south of far western Cuba. High pressure was anchored over the Four Corners tonight with a ridge extending north into the Northwest Territories of Canada. West of this ridge axis, a trough of low pressure was present approximately 800 to 1000 miles west of Oregon and Washington. Across western and north central Nebraska overnight, weak low pressure was located over central South Dakota. High pressure will build south into the upper Mississippi valley tonight.
352 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 A back door cold front continues to move westward through central North Dakota this morning. Northwesterly flow will move eastward this afternoon as upper level ridging settles over the Northern Rockies spanning into the Northern Plains. The aforementioned cold front will cause temperatures to slightly decrease this afternoon. High temperatures are forecast to sit in the lower 60s out east to the mid 70s out west.
1211 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 A back door cold front located over the Turtle Mountains down into Jamestown will continue to move westward. The only thing expected from the front is a wind shift out of the east to southeast and slightly cooler temperatures. Northwest flow aloft remains over the region through Tuesday, with a large area of high pressure building south into eastern areas of the Northern Plains tonight into tomorrow. Upper level high pressure building east into the Great Plains Wed-Thu will bring continued dry weather conditions along with a warming trend.
1102 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022 (Rest of tonight) Clear skies are in place with the eastern edge of an area of high pressure building into the area.
Today will be quiet and pleasant with a temp gradient along a subtle back-door cold front leaving lower to mid-70s in western Iowa to near 80F near Fairbury.
Amplified upper pattern over the conus today with broad cyclonic flow east and expansive mean ridging west. Sfc cold front drops south through the state by late morning into the afternoon. Expecting lows in the low to mid 30s with some readings in the upper 20s possible north.
(Today and tonight) Temperatures will be several degrees warmer today under breezy downslope southwesterly winds. Winds will turn to the southwest courtesy of a surface lee cyclone developing in southeastern Colorado. An upper level ridge will slowly move overhead allowing for weak flow aloft to take over. At the same time, a weak cold front will slowly sag south through the Texas Panhandle.
High pressure centered over the southern Rocky Mountains will help to deliver moisture to northern Arizona, with thunderstorm chances returning to the forecast. A generally low grade monsoon pattern will continue through this week as the weather pattern is dominated by high pressure to our east.
Canadian high pressure slides in from the northeast this morning bringing some caa. Temperatures today will only top out in the lower 60s across the east as a result. Upper ridging will continue to provide for dry and mild to warm temperatures over the Northern Plains through the remainder of the work week. However, by this weekend, an upper trof/low is expected to settle into the northern/central Rockies. The eastern reaches of the CWA may see little to no pcpn as a ridge remains in place across that region.
An upper level trough remains in place across much of the eastern CONUS and is nosing southward into the Tennessee Valley. This cool, dry air mass will be maintained/reinforced by a cool, dry northwesterly flow, while high pressure at the surface help promote clear and sunny skies once again. Despite this sunshine, the cool air advection will serve to actually make highs a couple of degrees lower than yesterday, with most locations peaking in the low to mid 70s later this afternoon.