Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
GFS hints that we could see a few showers in our northwest counties with a weak pre-frontal trof Friday morning, and included some slight chances for showers in a few of our southwest Illinois counties before 18z. Ahead of the cold front, we will have one more incredibly warm day with temperatures around 20 degrees above seasonal normals. Dry weather and much cooler temperatures can be expected behind the front as high pressure builds westward into our region. Temperatures on Saturday will be 20 to 25 degrees colder than Friday, with readings falling below freezing for Saturday night.
Freezing rain or freezing drizzle possible later on if the dry slot can work into the area later today.
MVFR BR is still expected prior to the passage of a cold front before daybreak. Then, a Pacific cold front will surge east pushing this deeper, yet shallow moisture back to the Coastal Plains early in the morning. Upper air analysis this morning showed nearly zonal flow across the southwestern US with a trough over the northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the Gulf and winds were from the southeast to southwest. The upper level trough over the northern Rockies will swing down through the southern plains. A cold front will move through north Texas tonight and our CWA Friday morning. Temperatures will be cooler behind the front, but still above normal.
forecast soundings later tonight show a deep slightly subfreezing isothermal layer. Will continue to maintain the mention of sleet and freezing rain as well with up to a quarter inch of ice. With the trowal passing through and temperatures below freezing. But that eventually breaks down ahead of the advancing cold front.
258 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 A weak cold front will stall just to our south early this morning before returning north as a warm front by late today.
This will aid in low stratus advecting northward this morning ahead of an approaching cold front.
Across the southeast United States high pressure is in control. Northwest to north winds are decreasing due to the low pressure system north of The Bahamas moving away from the area.
Severe weather remains a possibility from mid to late afternoon into the evening hours as storms develop ahead of a cold front moving through the area. At present scattered showers and a few/isolated weak storms along/north of warm frontal boundary. Scattered convection develops ahead of southward trailing cold front amid strong 50 to 60 kts deep layer shear across western cwa initially and likely merging into linear segments/squall line with time and eastward progression.
No changes with the timing of the cold front with this forecast either.
356 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017 A cold front was sweeping across southern Missouri early this morning, bringing a much cooler airmass to the region. Highs today will range from the upper 40s in southeast Kansas to the lower 60s in south central Missouri. For tonight, temperatures will plummet into the low 20s.
320 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017 08z/2am surface analysis shows 995mb low over northeast Missouri, with warm front extending from near Quincy to just south of Kankakee. Locations from Peoria northward are north of the warm front and are therefore still hovering in the lower to middle 40s. The low is projected to track slowly N/NE today. The timing of the low and its associated trailing cold front is right on target from previous forecasts, so the main short-term challenge remains timing of convective initialization along/ahead of the boundary. but it appears the higher probabilities for tornadoes will be focused further east across Indiana. As high pressure builds into the region, clearing skies and diminishing winds will lead to cold lows in the lower to middle 20s Saturday night.
341 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017 An upper trough will intensify as it moves from the Central plains to the Mid-Upper Mississippi Valley Today into Tonight.
An upper level low is still moving through the central high plains this afternoon and will move eastward toward the Great Lakes by Friday evening. With the temperatures a little cooler this afternoon, there may be a bit earlier change from rain to snow as colder air moves into the area this evening. Saturday will bring temperatures that are a little warmer, but still cooler than normal.
257 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017 A cold front was sweeping across southern Missouri early this morning, bringing a much cooler airmass to the region. Highs today will range from the upper 40s in southeast Kansas to the lower 60s in south central Missouri. For tonight, temperatures will plummet into the low 20s.
Upper level low sliding further offshore and drier air settling in across the area, and upper level ridging will build across Florida today. At the surface, the low pressure system that has brought our wind and waves the past few days will continue slowly moving out to sea and eventually lift northeast tonight. High temperatures inland should have no trouble reaching the low 80s, with upper 70s expected along the coast. Saturday a cold front will approach the area but is expected to pass dry with perhaps just an increase in clouds across southeast Georgia.
This morning, after clearing the Arbuckle Mountains around 1 AM CST, it was smooth sailing for the cold front on its march east/southeast toward the Ouachita Mountains by 3 AM CST. Noticeably cooler air has also made a cameo, which is nice. Northwest winds will remain breezy through the day, with gusts in the late morning and afternoon in the low to mid 20 mph range this afternoon.
Winds will become light after midnight as trough axis moves into the eastern Brush Country. The trough axis will move through the coast early Friday morning ahead of the frontal boundary moving into the Brush Country. Trough axis will move into the Brush Country overnight with winds becoming light over the coastal plains and gradually veering.
To the west of this feature, an upper level ridge and high pressure at the surface will continue to build over our area. With mostly clear skies persisting under the strong upper ridge, another warm day is expected with near record highs possible across much of our area (low-mid 80s inland, mid-upper 70s near the Gulf Coast).
1150 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017 At H5 Upper closed low over eastern Wyoming with winter storm over northern plains. Closed low off florida coast and closed low over the southern Hudson Bay with storm moving across Northeast CONUS. Had some reports over southwest Nebraska of freezing precipitation early this afternoon but threat has diminished. Upper low over eastern Wyoming with energy rotating to the northeast across western Nebraska.
A rather potent system and its associated cold front will sweep across Central Indiana today and this evening. With this system will also come an end to the warm temperatures as cooler air filters in behind it.
Surface map at 04Z shows a deep 993 mb low centered near the KS/MO border, with a cold front extending back into the southern Plains and a warm front situated far to our north. VFR wx will persist overnight and tomorrow, with a line of TS developing along the cold front tomorrow evening.
Record highs today are as follows: AEX: 83 in 2011 BPT: 90 in 1906 (Record high for February) LCH: 84 in 1906 LFT: 81 in 2011 ARA: 80 in 2011 The stronger cold front will move through the region late this evening into Saturday morning.
A cold upper trough over the area today will shift east on Friday. A longwave trough encompasses the western CONUS this evening, resulting in a moist and unstable northwest flow across the forecast area.
1055 PM MST Thu Feb 23 2017 A much colder airmass has settled over the area under a broad trough of low pressure aloft. There is also a mid level low pressure center over southern WY and circulation around this will keep a favorable upslope northerly wind into the Uinta Mtns through tonight. As the main upper level trough shifts east over the Plains Friday, flow becomes northwesterly and lightens. Another vigorous upper level trough will move down the West Coast late Friday into Saturday.
By 18z, enough mixing and turbulence in the boundary layer should allow the low ceilings to lift into a broken layer of clouds between 3000 and 4000 feet. After 00z tomorrow, an approaching cold front should push ceilings back into MVFR and IFR range.
Gusty northwest-north winds will be expected through 22-24Z then veering and weakening as low level ridge settles over region. With this issuance, will speed up southward progression of cold front which should clear all terminals by midnight with gusty northwest winds continuing through end of forecast period. A cold front will move through the area tonight and much cooler (well, I guess I should say near- normal) temperatures to the area for tomorrow. Despite the cooler temperatures, we still can see some gusty northwest/north winds and some low humidity again.
Our environment, out ahead of the attendant cold front, will be characterized by record February warmth, likely near 80 at SDF, a strong mid-level cap, and brisk southerly winds. By 25/00Z, that low will be into southern Michigan, with the trailing cold front likely along the Wabash. The cold front will blast east overnight, bringing a sudden end to the record warmth.
A cold front will sweep in late in the period, bringing some -TSRA.
High temperatures to range from around 70 across se OK and sw AR to the lower 80s across deep east Texas. Fairly benign forecast through the weekend with high pressure prevailing areawide. Coldest night will be Saturday night with lows forecast to fall to near freezing across I-30 with mid 30s elsewhere.
Cold front currently moving through KBVO and will reach KTUL KRVS around 07z and into northwest Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma around 09-10z. Temps still in the 70s in most areas at 8 PM, but substantial airmass change is not far away as strong cold front currently stretches across northwest OK through central KS. ahead of the approaching cold front that should push through 08-12Z. A cold front will sweep across the area overnight bringing temperatures back to near or even slightly below normal for the next couple days. Fire danger will remain a concern Friday despite the cooler temperatures due to breezy west to northwest winds.
Upper ridging will build into the area during the day today allowing for ample sunshine and warm temperatures. Highs in the lower 80s can be expected with maybe even a few mid 80s across the interior and SW Florida. The weather on Saturday looks awfully similar to Friday although maybe a degree or two cooler but temps are still running 5-7 degrees above normal. This will occur between two broad upper cyclones, one over eastern Canada, and the other across the Pacific Northwest. Within this zonal pattern, a series of cold fronts will move across the CONUS, bringing temporary blasts of cooler and drier air. A cold front will surge across the region overnight Saturday night, bringing a shot of cooler drier air into the region.
353 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017 Cold front currently from far NW AR into far SE OK continues steadily eastward and will clear the remainder of NW AR around sunrise.
427 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 High pressure ridge will be over the area today with a cold front approaching from the northwest tonight.
Immediately ahead of the snow band, the intrusion of dry mid- level air within the system dry slot has resulted in areas of freezing drizzle across portions of southeast and east-central NE. These conditions will be further exacerbated in areas where more persistent freezing drizzle occurs this morning. While the fresh snow will have modulating effects on temperatures, it does appear that we will see gradually warmer daytime temperatures through the weekend. A broad, cyclonic mid-level flow regime in place at the onset of the extended range is forecast to amplify in response to the progression of a positively tilted trough from the Interior West into the Great Plains during the first half of the upcoming work week.
Light winds tonight will become northwesterly as a cold front moves through the area. Cold front should move through the area Friday morning, shifting winds around to the northwest. /issued 401 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/ (Tonight and Friday) An upper level trough will track east from the Rockies and across the central Plains tonight, with an associated cold front dropping south across the area after midnight. Aforementioned front will usher in a dry and cooler airmass for Friday, with afternoon highs still above normal but about 20 degrees cooler than today, with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
Cold front with generally light N winds will reach CDS shortly, then PVW and LBB around 3 and 5 A. /issued 616 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/ Quick update to account for a much faster cold front that is already exiting the eastern OK Panhandle ahead of stout northerly winds.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 48 56 39 60 / 20 60 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 53 38 57 / 80 70 40 10 Oak Ridge, TN 48 54 38 58 / 50 70 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 50 34 50 / 80 80 60 20 NC.
An upper ridge will cross the region tonight then shift east Thursday with a mild southwest flow developing.
Current VFR conditions will become MVFR early in the TAF period as moisture rotates into the area around low pressure over the Midwest.
Several reports of winds over 34kts along central Brevard coastline with the highest of 47kts right at KCOF. This will produce very warm temperatures in the low to mid 80s in breezy westerly flow behind the front as skies clear. Isolated storms may push offshore this evening but a better chance for fast moving showers and embedded storms will occur toward sunrise through Thu morning ahead of a strong cold front.
924 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017 Wx map shows pressure gradient gradually relaxing this evening as high pressure builds in from Texas. /issued 345 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017/ Afternoon surface analysis shows the surface cold front has exited the CWA and coastal waters. High pressure will build into the region the region over the next several days.
Mid/upper level low pressure currently moving over northern MO and southern IA this afternoon. Some of the high res models show low level cape could approach 500 j/kg, which means isolated thunder could be possible this afternoon. The high pressure should support lighter wind speeds therefore allowing for radiational cooling.
However, conditions were humid and warm, with temperatures reaching the mid 80s and the low temperature that was measured this morning could possibly set another warm low record. A cold front, currently affecting the southeast United States, will swing southeast overnight over the Florida peninsula and reach the Keys tomorrow afternoon.
800 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017 Enhanced cumulus field on the back side of the retreating upper low and associated trough has continued to produce some isolated showers and even a stray thunderstorm across eastern Oklahoma late this afternoon into early evening. /issued 238 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017/ Cloud cover associated with moisture wrapping around the back side of the departing upper low continues to shift ewd across our region this afternoon. Temps to hover very near or even just below seasonal normals for the remainder of the work week, as nw flow aloft and high pressure at the sfc maintain their influence.
940 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017 A low pressure system will move across northern Ohio late tonight and Thursday.
Patchy MVFR ceilings will be possible mainly over northern parts of AR until the upper low pressure system pushes out of the region later tonight. Also light showers will move from the northwest to the southeast over AR this evening, then gradually weaken and dissipate overnight as the upper low moves away from AR.
/issued 800 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017/ Enhanced cumulus field on the back side of the retreating upper low and associated trough has continued to produce some isolated showers and even a stray thunderstorm across eastern Oklahoma late this afternoon into early evening. /issued 238 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017/ Cloud cover associated with moisture wrapping around the back side of the departing upper low continues to shift ewd across our region this afternoon. Temps to hover very near or even just below seasonal normals for the remainder of the work week, as nw flow aloft and high pressure at the sfc maintain their influence.
904 PM MDT Wed Apr 5 2017 Upper ridge was building into the area for a precipitation free night. Mid to high level clouds were shifting in with the ridge but are progged to decrease through the night in anticyclonic flow. These showers will stay outside of our cwa thru the remainder of the afternoon as we are seeing height rises associated with the western ridge.
828 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017 A cold front will cross the area late tonight then move off the coast around daybreak.
The NAM/GFS initializes this moisture well and continues to either thin the moisture out or shunt it well to the north as a mid/upper level ridge just to our west continues to amplify. High pressure over Manitoba will continue to drop southeast tonight, into the eastern Dakotas. Upper level analysis places ridge building over the western CONUS, with modest short wave sliding through the northern plains. Quiet weather with warmer temperatures Thursday as ridge works its way towards the area.
722 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017 A cold front will move through the area late tonight.
Forecast soundings out ahead of the convection continue to show a nice inverted V signature with the low-level dry air. The best tornado chances over the next few hours will be east of I- 65 and south of the Blue Grass Parkway in area of best SRH/EHI, and also near the warm front to the north. Broad area of low pressure, 999 mb, extends from central MO to southern IL, with a warm front extending across southern IN this hour. Even outside of these storms, expect gusty winds because of the pressure gradient associated with that low pressure. In addition to the wind, expect showery conditions as moisture wraps around the upper low travelling by to our north.
The mid eve update featured some adjustments to wind and gusts, mainly for areas adjacent to the ridges where wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph have been observed due to downslope enhancement. Otherwise, approaching low pressure is increasing rain chances for the Upper Ohio Region via moisture and ascent increases.
710 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017 Mid/upper level low pressure currently moving over northern MO and southern IA this afternoon. Some of the high res models show low level cape could approach 500 j/kg, which means isolated thunder could be possible this afternoon. The high pressure should support lighter wind speeds therefore allowing for radiational cooling.
Otherwise, warming aloft is now underway which will equate to a warmer day tomorrow. A ridge of high pressure will continue to build over Colorado from the west with the axis centered over the middle of the state by the afternoon.
Besides the tornado threat, strong winds aloft, lowering freezing level, and increasing HAIL CAPES may produce some damaging winds and large hail up to Golfball size at CHA/TYS this evening. Chattanooga Airport, TN 48 56 39 60 / 70 60 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 53 38 57 / 80 70 40 10 Oak Ridge, TN 48 54 38 58 / 80 70 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 50 34 50 / 90 80 60 20 TN.
There will be a strong low level inversion developing where ridgetops will be several degrees warmer than valleys.
Winds will continue to decrease through the evening and overnight hours as high pressure settles across Texas tonight and slowly shifts into the Western Gulf on Thursday. Cooler and drier air will continue to filter into the area tonight and temperatures will fall into the 50s with clear skies and light winds. 500mb ridge across northern Mexico and west TX Thursday will provide subsidence across southwest TX Thursday through Thurs night.
Of the few storms that remain, a good 30 to 35 mph gust still remains possible but most of this is environmental winds with the approaching cold front and decent gradient. The higher dewpoints line up well with the tornado watch that was just issued by SPC. Low pressure near Evansville IN will deepen as it moves northeast tonight, and the cold front which has just moved into western KY will surge east across the forecast area tonight. Once the thunderstorms there will be a lull, then showers will spread back across the area later tonight as wrap around moisture surges into the area as low pressure moves northeast. Lows Thursday night will be above freezing expect for the higher terrain near the VA border. As such snow accumulation is not expected except in the higher terrain.
/Issued 245 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017/ Strong and gusty winds continue this afternoon on backside of low pressure system moving into southern Illinois. Scattered showers also continue which has likely added to some of the higher gusts as precipitation falls into drier air. High pressure at the surface will continue to build into the Southern Plains Thursday/Thursday night.
The low will move across the Lower Great Lakes on Thu with the pressure gradient gradually slackening for the aft. Medium Low pressure will be off to our east with a strong northerly wind max brushing the eastern section of the cwa.
647 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017 A cold front moved through the Ozarks from this morning into this afternoon leaving brisk northwest winds and areas of drizzle and light rain showers in its wake. Meanwhile, we expect the rain shower/drizzle activity to persist into this evening as upper level low pressure digs right over the Missouri Ozarks. We will also see a gradual clearing trend overnight as that upper level low begins to move east of the region.
1153 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017 A cold front moved through the Ozarks from this morning into this afternoon leaving brisk northwest winds and areas of drizzle and light rain showers in its wake. Meanwhile, we expect the rain shower/drizzle activity to persist into this evening as upper level low pressure digs right over the Missouri Ozarks. We will also see a gradual clearing trend overnight as that upper level low begins to move east of the region.
High pressure over Manitoba will continue to drop southeast tonight, into the eastern Dakotas. Upper level analysis places ridge building over the western CONUS, with modest short wave sliding through the northern plains. Quiet weather with warmer temperatures Thursday as ridge works its way towards the area.
Elsewhere, weakening pressure gradient and building high pressure will help to keep winds down a bit more, but have still highlighted many locations with a limited wind threat in the HWO.
939 PM MDT Wed Apr 5 2017 With ridging aloft and dry air at the surface, I am not expecting much, if any, precip overnight. A high pressure ridge will move east over the region, allowing mid and (mainly) high clouds to pass overhead. Cassell /ISSUED 208 PM MDT Wed Apr 5 2017/ Upper ridging slowly moves east of the area through tonight, with the area coming under increasing southwest flow aloft Thursday.
643 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017 High pressure over Manitoba will continue to drop southeast tonight, into the eastern Dakotas. Upper level analysis places ridge building over the western CONUS, with modest short wave sliding through the northern plains. Quiet weather with warmer temperatures Thursday as ridge works its way towards the area.
Dewpoints remain amazingly comfortable for April standards as a strong area of high pressure continues to build into the region.
The clouds and light showers that are rotating around the surface and upper lows are both gradually thinning and dissipating. Patchy MVFR ceilings will be possible mainly over northern parts of AR until the upper low pressure system pushes out of the region later tonight. Also light showers will move from the northwest to the southeast over AR this evening, then gradually weaken and dissipate overnight as the upper low moves away from AR.