Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
623 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022 (This afternoon through Thursday night) An upper level ridge is over the Desert Southwest with an upper low over northern Mexico. This upper low is resulting in increased upper lift and moisture across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
1004 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022 A cold front will move through the region on Thursday, then will stall south of the area.
High pressure will then expand into Lower Mi from the southwest overnight. So any fog will likely be confined to far western Lower Mi and perhaps the thumb region due to the influence off the warmer lakes. Gusty westerly winds (30-35 mph) this afternoon are helping to dry out the surface/near surface moisture with surface dew pts now in the 50s as temperatures have climbed into the lower 80s.
743 PM MDT Wed Aug 31 2022 Sent an update tonight to begin including the off chance/mention of high-based thunderstorms for our far NE zones in the afternoon tomorrow as the cold front begins to push through the region. Next shift will need to re-evaluate this as well as the expected winds speeds, seeing as how most models under-forecast it will cold frontal passages.
(Rest of tonight) Light north-northwest flow aloft will persist across the TN Valley region overnight, in the wake of an amplified mid-latitude trough lifting northeastward across New England and adjacent portions of southern Quebec.
Numerous high temperature records were set today due to an intense upper level ridge anchored in the Great Basin. A weak Pacific short wave trough will bring 5 to 8 degrees cooling Thursday as it comes inland and passes north of us.
High pressure sits over North Dakota, with the center drifting southeast into northeast South Dakota. A cold front is forecast to move into the region Thursday evening with a 15% chance of rain for north central and eastern North Dakota.
Today began with widespread lows in the lower to mid 50s, and a feel of fall in the air. This afternoon, we have increased humidity through transpiration with dewpoints in the lower 60s and with deep mixing, temperatures have reached the lower to mid 80s as of 2 PM.
Strong high pressure over the Great Basin will bring mainly fair weather with very warm to hot temps for the rest of the work week and likely through the holiday weekend. Main story through the short term will be an intensifying ridge of high pressure.
934 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022 High pressure will build into the area from the north and west through late week and persist potentially all the way through the weekend. High pressure surface and aloft will build over the area through late week. The high is producing dry air and subsidence, resulting in mostly clear skies with comfortable temperatures as winds decouple. Overnight lows are forecast to be in the low to mid 60s inland with low to mid 70s beaches. Some of the high res models are indicating the potential for patchy fog overnight, especially south of Highway 70 where low level moisture profiles will be more favorable. High pressure mentioned above drifts eastward Thursday across Pennsylvania. Mainly dry and seasonably warm conditions through late week and into the weekend as high pressure will dominate.
622 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022 Summary: High pressure remains over the region providing plenty of sunshine and warming temperatures.
615 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022 High pressure will build into the area from the north and west through late week and potentially all the way through the weekend. High pressure surface and aloft will build over the area through late week. The high is producing dry air and subsidence, resulting in skies becoming mostly clear with comfortable temperatures as winds decouple. Overnight lows are forecast to be in the low to mid 60s. Some of the high res models are indicating the potential for patchy fog overnight, especially south of Highway 70 where low level moisture profiles will be more favorable. High pressure mentioned above drifts eastward Thursday across Pennsylvania. Mainly dry and seasonably warm conditions through late week and into the weekend as high pressure will dominate.
309 AM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the western U. and a trough in New England. Otherwise, with high pressure and WAA moving over the area, expect a pretty warm day Thursday, especially in the west, where highs are projected to hit the mid to upper 80s; a few spots could even hit 90.
Temperatures will increase to the 90s this afternoon, but the good news is, dewpoint temperatures will remain in the low 60s. A weak trough coming from the central plains will move into the Mid-South by tomorrow allowing moisture to filter into the area.
Conditions will trend warmer and more humid with an increasing risk of showers and thunderstorms through the long Labor Day weekend.
RAH (Issued 302 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022) Tonight and Thursday night: The pleasant summer weather and breezy northwest winds will continue this afternoon ahead of an approaching ridge. Increased mixing this afternoon has brought dewpoints down into the low 50s to low 60s. The lower dewpoints this evening paired with the clear skies and light winds will allow for temperatures to fall into the mid 50s again tonight.
130 AM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022 Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions will give way to isolated precipitation chances this weekend with the approach of a trough of low pressure. High pressure will sit overhead for the day today, capping the mid levels and allowing for clear skies with the occasion fair weather cumulus. Light WNW winds during the day will calm down overnight as the high moves off to the east.
235 AM MDT Thu Sep 1 2022 High pressure is currently centered over the Great Basin and will be responsible for a warm and dry pattern for the next several days. This shift will not cause any major changes although high may come a few degrees being closer to the thermal ridge. Labor Day weekend, long recognized as the close of summer, will feel more like deep summer this weekend with a ridge of high pressure camped out over the Great Basin.
Strong high pressure over the Great Basin will bring mainly fair weather with hot temps for the end of the work week and the holiday weekend.
Short term guidance is in good agreement a ~594-dm upper level cut-off ridge will remain fixed over the Intermountain West through the short term period, with weak longwave troughing over the eastern CONUS, leaving southwest KS under northerly or northwesterly upper level flow. These factors, along with mostly clear skies, will set the stage for yet another warm day across our area, with afternoon highs reaching the low to mid 90s. Thursday night will likely be quiet, with temperatures dropping into the low to mid 60s.
(Today) Showers and thunderstorms will expand from southwest to northeast during the day today, as an upper low in western portions of North Texas early this morning lifts to the east-northeast. The highs in southeast Oklahoma are most in question, as they are largely dependent on the thunderstorm coverage and how early in the day that increase takes place.
1137 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022 Calm overnight is in store with high pressure and clear skies dominating the region. Winds will slowly turn to the south as the high drifts off to the southeast. The high will begin to move east overnight, allowing winds to shift back to the south and warm air advection to kick in. Temps should be a few degrees warmer than today, both in the early morning and at peak heating.
Ridging aloft continues today promoting dry conditions with above normal temperatures. Expect highs in the 90s for the lower elevations, 70s to 80s for the foothills/high mountain valleys, and 50s to 60s for the mountains. This environment won't favor showers/thunderstorms, but can't rule out the low chance of an isolated shower in the mountains and Park County. Large amplitude ridge of high pressure will be parked over the Great Basin, deflecting any disturbances well north of Colorado.
Largely a persistence forecast today with the ridge axis to our west and the same airmass in place as Wednesday. Mostly sunny skies again today allow highs to reach the low to mid 80s.
1159 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022 (This afternoon through Thursday night) An upper level ridge is over the Desert Southwest with an upper low over northern Mexico. This upper low is resulting in increased upper lift and moisture across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
Otherwise, high pressure remains in control and another beautiful day is expected with slightly warmer temperatures. Another nice evening is expected due to the drier air still in place, it'll be a great night to be outdoors! Overnight lows in the low to mid 60s with a little bit of patchy fog.
1222 AM CDT Thu Sep 1 2022 Summary: High pressure remains over the region providing plenty of sunshine and warming temperatures.
High pressure is in the Ohio Valley with the Upper Great Lakes on the northern portion of the ridge. With the ridge east of us, we are going into the return flow on the back side of the high, so winds will go SW and the temperatures will warm today into the Upper 70s to lower 80s across the forecast area.
1134 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022 (Rest of tonight) Light north-northwest flow aloft will persist across the TN Valley region overnight, in the wake of an amplified mid-latitude trough lifting northeastward across New England and adjacent portions of southern Quebec.
(Today) On the 05Z surface map, high pressure was centered over southern IL. A cold front has shifted into central MS and south AL, dividing a considerably drier airmass over the TN valley and beneath the high, with moist and muggy air to the south. A developing upper low will take place over northeast FL and southeast GA. This may spawn an inverted surface-8h trough axis across southeast AL into north GA. The 8h trough shifts into AL late this afternoon, and could spawn a few cumulus later today, but forecast soundings indicate a strong capping inversion which should prevent much if any development.
341 AM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022 High pressure will extend across the region today.
An upper level ridge will remain centered across Nevada with another upper level ridge across the Southeast United States. West Central Texas will remain between these two features, with an inverted trough across northern Mexico and another trough across the Great Plains. Overnight lows will be in the low 70s.
1241 AM CDT Thu Sep 1 2022 High clouds will continue to rotate into Arkansas around an area of high pressure.
H850-500 ridging has become anchored over the region this evening, which will maintain mostly quiet conditions overnight. Scattered convection should increase once again especially by early/mid afternoon with daytime heating contributing to moderate instability within the persistently moist environment, the presence of the stationary front, and approaching trough advancing E across the Srn Plains late in the day.
High pressure will remain overhead through the day today but with upper-level flow remaining mostly zonal, temperatures will be rather similar to yesterday if not slightly more humid and warm. Once the high shifts off the eastern seaboard, increased southwesterly flow will usher in the warmest temperatures and moisture in the short-term.
329 AM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022 High pressure will dominate the region through the end of the week. Some low temperatures from around the area, particularly along and west of the Blue Ridge have dropped into the upper 50s. High temperatures will range from the mid to upper 80s along and east of the Blue Ridge, and upper 70s for areas west.
1013 PM MDT Wed Aug 31 2022 Upper ridging is persisting across the western CONUS, with WNW flow across the Dakotas.
1259 AM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022 (Through Thursday) A cold front will be stalled across SE GA this afternoon and evening, with high pressure centered to the southeast. Showers and storms will continue to develop this afternoon due to diurnal heating, with a focus of activity along the leading edge of the cold front, and along the east coast sea breeze. This front will dissipate during the day on Thursday, as weak high pressure builds to the east.
408 AM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022 A weakening cold front will move through the region today then will stall south of the area.
223 AM CDT Thu Sep 1 2022 High pressure remains located across central Illinois early this morning and will slowly translate east today. Low temperatures tonight will also be quite comfortable, in the lower to middle 60s.
142 AM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022 A cold front will move through the region on Thursday, then will stall south of the area.
349 AM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022 Mid level low pressure system is situated across far SE GA/NE FL this morning. To the NW of the low, the drier air is still across much of northern and western GA, but this will be changing.
154 AM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022 High pressure will build into the area from the north and west through late week and persist potentially all the way through the weekend. High pressure surface and aloft will build over the area through late week. The high is producing dry air and subsidence, resulting in mostly clear skies with comfortable temperatures as winds decouple. Overnight lows are forecast to be in the low to mid 60s inland with low to mid 70s beaches. Some of the high res models are indicating the potential for patchy fog overnight, especially south of Highway 70 where low level moisture profiles will be more favorable. High pressure mentioned above drifts eastward Thursday across Pennsylvania. Mainly dry and seasonably warm conditions through late week and into the weekend as high pressure will dominate.
A strong high pressure system over the western United States states will remain in place through the Labor Day Weekend. Temperatures will remain particularly warm, especially in the lower elevations.
117 AM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022 High pressure will dominate the region through the end of the week. At the surface, high pressure is building east into the central Appalachians. The high pressure builds overhead later tonight and dry air and light winds should allow good radiational cooling, so for places like Burkes Garden and Mountain Lake, temps could reach the mid to upper 40s. Airmass should warm fairly quick reaching the 80s in the afternoon, with 70s across the higher ridges.
1145 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022 High pressure will expand across the Ohio Valley and into southern Michigan tonight into Thursday. Gusty westerly winds (30-35 mph) this afternoon are helping to dry out the surface/near surface moisture with surface dew pts now in the 50s as temperatures have climbed into the lower 80s.
Daytime highs have been trending in the 70s with even some low 80s across the far south which supports the latest warmer RAP analysis trend. Meanwhile, sufficient mixing behind a cold front is keeping the northwest winds breezy, especially across the eastern two-thirds of the UP where the gradient is yet to weaken. Otherwise, with high pressure and WAA moving over the area, expect a pretty warm day Thursday, especially in the west, where highs are projected to hit the mid to upper 80s; a few spots could even hit 90.
237 AM MDT Thu Sep 1 2022 08z surface analysis had weak high over the eastern Dakotas and trough from eastern MT into central WY. Low level thermal ridge peaks over the CWA supporting highs well into the 90s on the plains with a smattering of 100F readings east of the Black Hills. Suspect a couple of stray -TSRA may develop in/near the higher terrain over northeast WY into southwest SD, so have introduced pops to account.
235 AM CDT Thu Sep 1 2022 Today will be the warmest day of the week with highs mostly in the 90s as the thermal ridge centers over the forecast area. The primary theme for the extended will be another warming trend, along with dry conditions, as another thermal ridge amplifies and centers over the region.
320 AM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the western U. and a trough in New England.
Today Through Friday Night An upper high pressure system continues over the western and southern U. with a trough over the northeast. An upper trough will develop in the Plains late today and move through Arkansas Friday. Lows tonight and Friday night will be in the mid 60s to the lower 70s.
High pressure over the Great Basin area will slowly shift east and transition more northerly flow over the Panhandles.
Key Messages: - Warm today and Friday, cooler weekend.
621 AM CDT Thu Sep 1 2022 (Today) Showers and thunderstorms will expand from southwest to northeast during the day today, as an upper low in western portions of North Texas early this morning lifts to the east-northeast. The highs in southeast Oklahoma are most in question, as they are largely dependent on the thunderstorm coverage and how early in the day that increase takes place.
High pressure will remain overhead through the day today but with upper-level flow remaining mostly zonal, temperatures will be rather similar to yesterday if not slightly more humid and warm. Once the high shifts off the eastern seaboard, increased southwesterly flow will usher in the warmest temperatures and moisture in the short-term. The models and ensembles continue to support the idea of eastern Kentucky in the midst of a ridge trough pattern through the holiday weekend and beyond.
A Pacific cold front will move through on Friday and could bring some gusty winds with it as it passes through the Sandhills, along with a wind shift. Min RH will be in the low teens across western into southern Nebraska.
Ridging aloft continues today promoting dry conditions with above normal temperatures. Expect highs in the 90s for the lower elevations, 70s to 80s for the foothills/high mountain valleys, and 50s to 60s for the mountains. This environment won't favor showers/thunderstorms, but can't rule out the low chance of an isolated shower in the mountains and Park County. Large amplitude ridge of high pressure will be parked over the Great Basin, deflecting any disturbances well north of Colorado. There is a tiny disturbance that drops a weak cold front on Friday which may spark a few showers/storms over the mountains and eastern plains on Friday afternoon.
440 AM CDT Thu Sep 1 2022 High pressure over the region is slowly moving east, which will result in increasingly southerly flow through the day today. This will come into play tomorrow as an upper level trough moves into the area from the Plains. The upper level trough, currently in the Central Plains, will elongate as it travels east. By Friday, the trough will reach the Mid-Mississippi Valley, providing weak forcing and cold air aloft.
As upper level troughing deepens across the Midwest, South Texas remains under an area of upper level weakness. This will allow for continued convection today and again tomorrow despite mid-level ridging. Temperatures will be a tad warmer with surface temperatures topping out near the low to mid 90 degree range both days with heat indices ranging between 105-109 mainly along the Coastal Bend.
640 AM CDT Thu Sep 1 2022 High pressure over the region is slowly moving east, which will result in increasingly southerly flow through the day today. This will come into play tomorrow as an upper level trough moves into the area from the Plains. The upper level trough, currently in the Central Plains, will elongate as it travels east. By Friday, the trough will reach the Mid-Mississippi Valley, providing weak forcing and cold air aloft.
1039 AM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022 High pressure will bring dry and cooler weather today through tonight.
406 AM CDT Thu Sep 1 2022 A cold front draped across our CWA will continue to push slowly across the region today filtering drier air behind it suppressing most rain chances. Outside of that, a pleasant day shall prevail! Mostly clear skies can be expected today and tonight with highs in the lower 90s and lows falling into the upper 60s across the northwest and low 70s elsewhere.
952 AM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022 High pressure will extend across the region today. The high will then move east of the area tonight into Friday. This moisture will interact with a weak mid level trough to bring the threat for showers and thunderstorms. The center of the high will move east of the area tonight. Aloft, a weak mid level trough will be organizing to our west. Lows tonight will range from the lower to mid 60s. The synoptic pattern at the start of the period is characterized by very weak flow aloft, with a subtle H5 trough in place over the Midwest region. The weak, H5 trough slowly propagates eastward and provides just enough forcing to interact with a warm and humid air mass, keeping chances for showers/storms in the forecast over the weekend.
611 AM CDT Thu Sep 1 2022 (Today through Friday afternoon) Rich sly flow in the 7h-5h layer, e of the mid-level low, will hold rich/deep mstr in place as the mid-level trof extends newd from nrn MX thru the PB. The nrn extent of the mid-level theta-e ridge axis will generally be along I-20 where flow aloft is weakest. Into Fri PM the aforementioned theta-e ridge will sag swd some, but still very mst conditions will remain across the Trans Pecos where/when the Davis Mtns and vicinity are targeted for heavy rain.
/Issued 349 AM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022/ Mid level low pressure system is situated across far SE GA/NE FL this morning. To the NW of the low, the drier air is still across much of northern and western GA, but this will be changing. The mid level low pressure will meander across central and south GA through tomorrow, providing some broad lift for convection. Think the highest pops should be along and south of a MCN today, and then south of the I-20 corridor on Friday as that mid level low shifts more northward with time.
Slightly cooler temperatures will arrive by the weekend accompanied by breezy winds and elevated fire concerns.
- Slightly cooler for the weekend with generally dry conditions expected. With higher humidity and slightly higher winds tonight overnight lows will be a bit warmer compared to this morning. A weak closed low associated with the aforementioned trough is expected to develop over central Missouri on Friday afternoon and a weak cold front is progged to move toward the region in association with a trough across Ontario and into the Great Lakes Friday evening/night. Weak troughing looks like it may hang around over the region at least through the weekend.
516 AM CDT Thu Sep 1 2022 (Today) On the 05Z surface map, high pressure was centered over southern IL. A cold front has shifted into central MS and south AL, dividing a considerably drier airmass over the TN valley and beneath the high, with moist and muggy air to the south. A developing upper low will take place over northeast FL and southeast GA. This may spawn an inverted surface-8h trough axis across southeast AL into north GA. The 8h trough shifts into AL late this afternoon, and could spawn a few cumulus later today, but forecast soundings indicate a strong capping inversion which should prevent much if any development.
Today will be the warmest day of the week with highs mostly in the 90s as the thermal ridge centers over the forecast area. The primary theme for the extended will be another warming trend, along with dry conditions, as another thermal ridge amplifies and centers over the region.
As has been the case the past couple of days, there continues to be a lack of obvious forcing mechanisms with Deep South Texas under weak mid level ridging, so a typical convective diurnal pattern is the current default for the short term.
A cold front will then slide from northwest to southeast across the region late Thursday into Friday.
An upper ridge will shift inland as an upper trough moves into the northeast Pacific through the end of the week.
From synopsis, high pressure over the western North Atlantic will continue to maintain its foothold over the area result in gentle to occasionally moderate easterly breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys for the next several days.
647 AM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022 High pressure will continue to govern conditions through the region this taf period.