Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A weak cold front will arrive in the 08Z-10Z time frame, veering winds to the north and increasing in speeds to around 12 knots sustained with gusts up to 20 knots possible. /issued 212 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2019/ An upper level low pressure system across western Mexico will move east through tonight passing just south of the Big Bend.
121 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019 Quiet weather continues this evening through Thursday, with warmer temperatures expected Thursday afternoon. A cold front was draped across northern South Dakota early this afternoon, with breezy post-frontal winds and clearing skies across North Dakota.
A weak cold front associated with a fast moving short wave trough swings through the area tonight knocking temperatures down a few degrees for Thursday. After Thursday, progressively warmer temperatures will occur thanks to modest mid to upper level height rises in the wake of the exiting short wave trough.
Temperatures still struggling to hit the freezing mark, and lowered the MaxT for the remainder of the day to the lower to mid 30s for the lowlands. In some areas, the lows may be reached closer to midnight than daybreak on Thursday. A cold front approaches Thursday, but will be weakening and should only increase the cloud cover. Meanwhile, the southern mountains may get clipped by upper level moisture from a developing upper level trough over the deep south.
1126 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2019 An upper trof will move across the northern Plains and Midwest today and tonight with the associated surface cold front moving southeast across Kansas and the central Plains. Warmer south to southwest winds will prevail today though temperatures will still come up a few degrees below seasonal climo this afternoon.
248 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019 (Tonight and Thursday) An upper level trough will swing across the Plains overnight, sending a cold front south through West Central Texas Thursday morning. In addition, an upper level low will track across northern Coahuila early Thursday morning, then across Central Texas during the day Thursday. As the low approaches, isolated to scattered showers will be possible, mainly across the southern half of the region. Overnight lows will generally be in the low to mid 30s. Rain chances will move south and east of the area Thursday afternoon, as the upper level low moves toward East Texas. Highs on Thursday will once again be below seasonal normals, in the low to mid 50s.
Sunny and cold this morning, slowly warming into the 30s for the lowlands.
Unfortunately, the cold front did not quite make it to the island chain. Water vapor imagery highlights a mid to upper level low nearing the Rio Grande Valley. After a surge of northeast to east breezes tonight, breezes will diminish quickly Thursday as a festering area of weak low pressure develops over the Gulf.
221 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019 A weak upper level trough and surface front will continue pushing southeast of the CWA through this evening. Partly to mostly cloudy skis Thursday night should keep temps on the warmer side with lows in the 20s. For the most part, the edges of upper ridging will dominate with quick-moving disturbances moving through the flow.
1111 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2019 Dry and cold high pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north and northeast through tonight. The ridge will shift farther east and a trough will develop along the Southeast Coast bringing increased moisture Thursday.
A weak cold front is currently moving south across the forecast area this afternoon however the only real impact will be a shift in wind direction to northerly behind the front and a drop in temperatures.
At 2 PM, temperatures had warmed into in the mid 20s along the Highway 20 corridor to the lower 30s across southeastern Iowa, west central Illinois, and far northeast Missouri. Key point: Light snow is expected across the area late this afternoon into evening with up to an inch possible along the Highway 20 corridor and lower amounts to the south. Snowfall amounts should be light with most areas only seeing a dusting snow and up to an inch possible along the Highway 20 corridor. High pressure will move into northern Missouri by Thursday afternoon. Skies will clear through the day with slightly warmer temperatures across the area. Temperatures above freezing are forecast along and south of a line from Fairfield to Clinton.
242 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019 The 12Z guidance offers no debate on our next upper-level trough moving through the area dry Thursday.
Wind shift to the north is expected behind a weak cold front that will move through the terminals late this afternoon. There is an outside chance that low ceilings develop late tonight behind the cold front but uncertainty remains too low to include in this forecast. /issued 520 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2019/ VFR expected through tonight, although there is a possibility of some low ceilings developing late tonight behind a cold front. This will be followed by a weak cold front this evening which will lower temperatures back down below seasonal averages for Thursday.
Meanwhile, a back door cold front will shift southwest thru eastern NM today with a couple hours of gusty winds from KCAO to KTCC and KCVS thru early this evening.
Mid level vort lobe running thru the base of the trough is evident on afternoon WV imagery pushing thru Iowa. By tonight, mid level height rises commence later tonight as ridging builds to the west. As far as temperatures, operational GFS generally toward the higher end of its ensemble envelope, although closer to the 00z ECMWF ensemble mean and overall guidance blend.
215 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019 High pressure will drift off the Mid Atlantic Coast tonight allowing a south to southwest flow of air to develop and bring slowly moderating temperatures for the rest of the week. After a chilly day today, lows will drop back into the 20s in most areas, which will be much cooler than mid November normals. A mainly dry warm front will string out to our north Thursday, effectively confining any precip to areas north of the NY border.
Still quiet following the significant frontal passage, and a clear, dry, and cold night is on tap beneath high pressure area.
Temperatures have already climbed to around 30 degrees, and will continue to climb into the low-to-mid 40s this afternoon.
A relatively weak cold front will pass through Oklahoma and north Texas tonight, switching winds around to the north. A cold front will shift gusty south winds today to north this evening and overnight.
251 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019 Arctic high pressure continues to shift east this afternoon. The clouds are ahead of an upper trof that will be moving into the area on Thursday. The trof will deepen as it moves into the area forming an upper level low over North Mississippi by Thursday Night. Not a lot of moisture associated with the trof, but can't rule out some patchy light rain occurring across North Mississippi on Thursday.
An amplifying trough across the central United States is expected to move into the region overnight tonight.
Quiet weather continues this evening through Thursday, with warmer temperatures expected Thursday afternoon. A cold front was draped across northern South Dakota early this afternoon, with breezy post-frontal winds and clearing skies across North Dakota.
1042 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2019 A 1032 mb high pressure system is spreading east into the Appalachians. Meanwhile, a cold front stretches west-southwest from southern Florida to just south of the Dry Tortugas. The forecast calls for slight rain chances through the afternoon, although we made a slight update to the gridded PoPs to account for 30% chances along the western-most fringes of the Lower Keys. From synopsis, a cold front will stall near, or just south of the Florida Keys this afternoon, contributing to fresh north to northeast breezes.
1116 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2019 An approaching cold front an upper level disturbance will spread lots of cloud cover across the region today. temperatures today should be modestly warmer than yesterday as some of the antecedent snowfall has melted. as high pressure descends across the region from the northwest. which is still about 10 degrees below normal but significantly warmer than behind the last frontal passage.
1040 AM MST Wed Nov 13 2019 Water vapor shows upper wave moving into the Northern Plains with upper ridge axis just offshore the Pac NW. Surface trof has advanced into the eastern Dakotas. Upper ridge will build into the Northern Rockies over the next few days, with mainly dry northwest flow and warming temps over our region.
330 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019 High pressure will drift off the Mid Atlantic Coast tonight allowing a south to southwest flow of air to develop and bring slowly moderating temperatures for the rest of the week. After a chilly day today, lows will drop back into the 20s in most areas, which will be much cooler than mid November normals. A mainly dry warm front will string out to our north Thursday, effectively confining any precip to areas north of the NY border. Precipitation associated with the low pressure system developing off the Southeast Coast will expand northward but should remain along/east of I-95 corridor.
A cold front will move through the area Thursday morning, resulting in gusty north winds of 10 to 15 knots. /issued 540 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2019/ /12Z TAFS/ Gusty south winds at KABI and KSJT develop mid morning and continue into mid afternoon, as a lee trough develops. For tonight, another weak cold front will move into West Central Texas, from the north.
High pressure is building from the south and forecast to continue through tomorrow.
1100 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2019 Arctic high pressure remains over the Mid-South this morning. The high will gradually begin shifting east which will turn winds around to the southeast. The southeast winds will help bring some warmer air into the area, but temperatures will still remain well below normal today due to the cold start this morning. Ridging, in conjunction with clear skies and southerly flow in the lower levels, will allow us to bounce back into the mid-40s today. By Thursday, another trough will dig south quickly from the Plains and bring a reinforcing cold front with it.
High pressure over the area will begin to move east, and a trough of low pressure will move overhead to take its place.
/issued 411 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2019/ A very cold and dry morning with temperatures dropping into the lower to middle 20s along and north of interstates 10/12. sunny and slightly warmer by this afternoon with temperatures climbing into the lower 50s. This should keep temperatures above freezing for Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
By late tonight into early tomorrow morning, a cold front will move through the area switching the wind from the south to northwesterly at all TAF sites. A weak cold front associated with a fast moving short wave trough swings through the area tonight knocking temperatures down a few degrees for Thursday. After Thursday, progressively warmer temperatures will occur thanks to modest mid to upper level height rises in the wake of the exiting short wave trough.
/issued 1100 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2019/ Arctic high pressure remains over the Mid-South this morning. The high will gradually begin shifting east which will turn winds around to the southeast. The southeast winds will help bring some warmer air into the area, but temperatures will still remain well below normal today due to the cold start this morning. Ridging, in conjunction with clear skies and southerly flow in the lower levels, will allow us to bounce back into the mid-40s today. By Thursday, another trough will dig south quickly from the Plains and bring a reinforcing cold front with it.
1217 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019 High pressure will slide east from the Ohio Valley today.
922 AM MST Wed Nov 13 2019 High pressure aloft along the west coast will work into the western Great Basin tonight, then continue east into Utah by Thursday afternoon.
This weather pattern will persist for a few more days as an upper-level ridge remains our dominant weather feature.
The mid-level wave exits east this evening with some breaks in cloud cover expected after midnight as ridging builds in from the Northern Plains. High pressure drops into the Mid-Mississippi River Valley Thursday as a cold front drops to along the MN/Canadian border. A weak mid-level trough and surface cold front drops through the area Thursday night but should remain dry.
An upper level ridge will build into the area today for drier conditions.
1047 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2019 High pressure will slide east from the Ohio Valley today.
Some cloud cover is also present across the area as a mid-level trough continues to traverse the area. Although most of the area is expected to remain dry today, I've kept a low-end chance for a brief period of flurries or sprinkles near the Missouri/Iowa this evening ahead of an approaching cold front, with no impacts expected. The cold front will then progress from northwest to southeast across the area this evening and tonight, bringing a broken deck of low-level stratus clouds behind it given a slight increase in low-level moisture tonight. Overnight lows will be more mild compared to last night, generally bottoming out in the low to mid 20s. Clearing skies and slightly cooler temperatures are in store for Thursday behind the front.
The trend for the next two days will be increasing rain chances as a weak coastal trough develops, a reinforcing high pressure pushes in from the north, and as the aforementioned mid level feature moves overhead from the west.
If cloud cover is more extensive then forecast, some areas may see temperatures held slightly cooler than that.
A cold front is moving through the Caprock region, with a few clouds at or around 25KFT. Potential for low cloud development will be assessed for the next TAF issuance; however, it appears that the lower levels will remain too dry for any issues with ceilings. A weak cold front is currently moving south across the forecast area this afternoon however the only real impact will be a shift in wind direction to northerly behind the front and a drop in temperatures.
650 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019 High pressure will drift off the Mid Atlantic Coast tonight allowing a south to southwest flow of air to develop and bring slowly moderating temperatures for the rest of the week. Precipitation associated with the low pressure system developing off the Southeast Coast will expand northward but should remain along/east of I-95 corridor.
The dry air in the low levels has limited the snow for the TAF sites.
The weather pattern early this afternoon features broad longwave troughing over the eastern three-quarters of the country, with a modest PV lobe tracking southeastward into the Central Plains along the upstream flank of the main longwave trough. Lower stratus/stratocumulus should work across most of the area overnight in the wake of the boundary, but clear Thursday morning as WAA overspreads the region ahead of a building longwave ridge.
This pattern will also support a westerly wind at the surface which should help enhance mixing a bit and bring in slightly warmer readings.
Cold high pressure will then rebuild into the area for dry conditions heading into the weekend.
848 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019 Southerly winds today brought slightly warmer air into central Illinois, with afternoon highs approaching 30.
Temperatures will reach into the mid 50s behind a cold front that pushed through earlier today. For Thursday, the trough will exit the region Thursday morning with increasing subsidence behind it. This will help to keep conditions dry with temperatures warming into mid-50s across the plains and 40s in the high country.
Winds will become light this evening as a ridge of high pressure builds aloft, bringing a drying and warming trend to the region in the near- term.
Temperatures across the region mostly being near to above freezing will lend to compaction and some melting of the existing snowpack through the rest of the afternoon.
A weak upper level trough and surface front will continue pushing southeast of the CWA through this evening. Partly to mostly cloudy skis Thursday night should keep temps on the warmer side with lows in the 20s. For the most part, the edges of upper ridging will dominate with quick-moving disturbances moving through the flow.
A low pressure system approaches out of northern Mexico/southern Texas and brings our next chance for precipitation.
Despite high pressure, clouds will linger into Thursday morning keeping temperatures in the low to mid 20s overnight.
Tonight through Tomorrow: Looking at water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon, the deeper moisture associated with a closed low over northern Mexico can be seen advecting northeastward over the Gulf Coast. For Fri-Sun, look for slow moderation each day with chilly nights with a few opportunities for freezing conditions. Lows Sun are mostly in the lower 30s, but conditions could be really good for rad cooling and I would not be surprised to see lows over achieve and readings end up colder.
202 PM MST Wed Nov 13 2019 Progressive NW flow will persist thorough the period as then mean upper ridge will remain positioned over the western CONUS. Mean ridging expected the next two days which will support mild temps and dry weather.
High pressure will strengthen over the area the rest of today into Thursday resulting in stable air and increasing inversions. Otherwise the low stratus in place will likely remain in place through much of Thursday, especially in the Mission and Flathead Valleys.
with this system until you get to eastern Iowa led to freezing drizzle/freezing rain across west central Iowa through early afternoon. Currently the main band of precip is along and north of the highway 30 corridor with the better forcing beneath the dendritic growth zone so the forecast of light snow with an inch or less accumulation still looks good.
427 PM MST Wed Nov 13 2019 Progressive NW flow will persist thorough the period as then mean upper ridge will remain positioned over the western CONUS. Mean ridging expected the next two days which will support mild temps and dry weather.
508 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019 High pressure will remain largely in control through the period with widespread VFR conditions expected.
Ongoing VFR conditions will prevail with passing cold front this evening into Thurs morning. A cold front will pass through the area tonight and into tomorrow, with a wind shift being the main result.
547 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019 Southerly winds today brought slightly warmer air into central Illinois, with afternoon highs approaching 30.
A clear sky and high pressure will allow temperatures to continue falling into the 20s this evening.
A cold front will pass through the area tonight and into tomorrow, with a wind shift being the main result.
On Thu, an upper level ridge will build over the area and dry weather will continue across southeast and south central CO. Temps in the high valleys on Thu are forecast to be similar to today, but the southeast plains should see cooler temps than today.
848 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019 Another quiet/unseasonably cool night is underway this Wed evening across the cntrl TN Valley, as current temp trends have fallen well into the lower 30s/or near the 30F mark for most spots. Mid/high cloud cover continues to spread ewd into much of the region, as an upper trough axis drops well into south TX. Otherwise, with high pressure remaining layered across the NE/mid Atlantic states, light E/SE winds overnight may allow temps to drop another degree or two, although the increase in clouds should offset much in the way of any additional radiational cooling. A low pressure system approaches out of northern Mexico/southern Texas and brings our next chance for precipitation.
339 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019 A cold front is currently located to the south and east. Cloud cover returns tomorrow with a weak low pressure system to our north. A surface warm front will shift winds to be more southwesterly, advecting warmer air that will allow for temperatures to rise into the 30s across much of the area. This warm air advection ahead of an approaching cold front will bring chances for more light snow, especially north of Highway 2. Fri will be cooler, owing to an earlier FROPA, followed by some WAA Fri night into Sat. This drop will be in connection with another cold front passing through, offering light amounts of snow or perhaps a wintry mix.
Tomorrow will be another tranquil day with temperatures very similar to today, maybe a degree or two warmer. Some high clouds will move in towards the late afternoon/evening hours in response to a weak upper level jet streak that will move in ahead of the next trough. These clouds will likely keep overnight lows a bit warmer than seen Thursday morning.
536 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019 A cold front is currently located to the south and east. Cloud cover returns tomorrow with a weak low pressure system to our north. A surface warm front will shift winds to be more southwesterly, advecting warmer air that will allow for temperatures to rise into the 30s across much of the area. This warm air advection ahead of an approaching cold front will bring chances for more light snow, especially north of Highway 2. Fri will be cooler, owing to an earlier FROPA, followed by some WAA Fri night into Sat. This drop will be in connection with another cold front passing through, offering light amounts of snow or perhaps a wintry mix.
This will have an affect on temperatures which could hold down these readings a few degrees cooler than forecast. Another cold front will arrive late Thursday night and bring more cloud cover to the region.
632 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019 High pressure is settling in at the surface across the mid-atlantic. An area of low pressure is expected to slowly come together over the in the Gulf of Mexico ahead of an upper- level trough in the next 24 hours.
/issued 251 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019/ Arctic high pressure continues to shift east this afternoon. The clouds are ahead of an upper trof that will be moving into the area on Thursday. The trof will deepen as it moves into the area forming an upper level low over North Mississippi by Thursday Night. Not a lot of moisture associated with the trof, but can't rule out some patchy light rain occurring across North Mississippi on Thursday.
Surface ridging remains across the southern Appalachians. Surface ridging into the Tennessee valley will keep winds light and variable/calm. Still quiet following the significant frontal passage, and a clear, dry, and cold night is on tap beneath high pressure area.
The combination of an approaching mid level low and increasing low level moisture courtesy of a coastal trough across the Gulf will support overcast skies with MVFR ceilings, possibly dropping to IFR/LIFR overnight, especially near the coast. The trend for the next two days will be increasing rain chances as a weak coastal trough develops, a reinforcing high pressure pushes in from the north, and as the aforementioned mid level feature moves overhead from the west.
The 12Z guidance offers no debate on our next upper-level trough moving through the area dry Thursday.
129 PM PST Wed Nov 13 2019 High pressure over the area has begun to move east, and a trough of low pressure is moving overhead to take its place.
High temperatures on Thursday expected to be 5 to 10 degrees below normal as cool post-frontal ridge settles in.
311 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019 Southerly winds today brought slightly warmer air into central Illinois, with afternoon highs approaching 30.
Large upper low over northern Mexico will continue to move east with -RA or -SHRA spreading into the area from the west overnight into Thursday. Satellite imagery indicating increasing and thickening cloud cover advancing across the area associated with and in advance of eastward tracking low pressure currently over Mexico. Low aloft and associated surface trof is expected to bring increasing rains west to east late tonight, and showers likely to categorical encompassing the entire area Thursday as it advances east. A cold front will then sweep across the area late Thursday bringing a reinforcing shot of cold air that will hold into the new week.