Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
617 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Northwest flow regime settling over the region will usher in a cooler airmass, knocking a few degrees off of recent afternoon highs. Lows are expected in the low to mid 50s. This will bring warmer temperatures with highs around 80 east of I-29 to upper 80s over south central SD.
A weak cold front is expected on Saturday, and will bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to the mountains.
/Issued 402 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017/ Cold front has pushed through most of the Panhandles overnight, with areas across the southeast Panhandles not far behind.
Temperatures will reach the lower 90s which will cause heat index readings of 100 to 105 today. Rainfall chances will be on the increase tonight/overnight along a southward moving cold front, that will impinge on ktxk initially. Digging trof over the Central Plains continues to push sewd, and an associated MCS over nrn OK/sern KS is ongoing as a result. Convection to continue as the trof/cold front digs into the srn Plains by late tonight, which will bring increasing PoPs to our region. Greatest chances for rain will be along I-20 and nwd, as the srn extent of the trof/front look to be limited by the upper ridge axis over NM/nrn Mexico. Increasing moisture combined with temperatures in the lower 90s will produce heat index readings between 100 and 105 today and Saturday.
Dry air to the west associated with high pressure is moving east, however NAM BUFKIT soundings suggest there may be enough residual humidity in eastern South Dakota ahead of a weak 500mb wave to support isolated to scattered weak convection. High pressure starts out overhead and moves southeast tonight.
634 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Low clouds continue to slide east behind advancing cold front. Early this morning a surface cold front continues to scoot south and east across central portions of the state.
With model soundings fairly weak with respect to wind in the lowest levels and the long strung out nature of the CAPE severe weather is not anticipated with the thunderstorm activity in the short term part of the forecast.
0 inches with weak steering flow as ridge axis settles across central FL. Mid level ridge has strengthened slightly evidenced by the 500 mb temp warming to -5. No significant changes to temps with highs in the lower 90s inland (with a few mid 90s poss) and upper 80s beaches. With close proximity of low level ridge axis over central Florida, a light SE-S breeze of 7-12KT will keep peak seas AOB 3FT through tonight.
High pressure is expected to build in over the area through the weekend with temperatures warming above normal.
Calm, tranquil conditions expected this afternoon and evening under the upper ridge.
Highs will be close to yesterday (maybe just a few degrees cooler) -- 60s near the water with 70s and 80s inland. Weakening high pressure aloft over California will offer up slight cooling across the area today and Saturday, however temperatures are expected to remain around normal through the weekend and the coming holiday. Temperatures are expected to range from upper the 50s to lower 70s at the coast with upper 70s to lower 90s for many inland locations, locally warmer in far inland spots. SFO Bridge Approach. Overcast 1100 at last ob for the San Mateo bridge with only slow clearing through 18z.
High pressure is ridging across the area at the surface and aloft. Ridging will remain in place through Saturday keeping light winds overnight, and a predominant SE flow during the day that turns onshore with the sea breeze each afternoon. Temperatures will be generally in the lower 90s for highs with afternoon heat index values in the lower 100s, and in the 70s for lows.
803 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through until the passage of a cold front on Saturday. The upper trough is forecast to complete passage across the OH Valley/Great Lakes region late Saturday. Ensemble model solutions indicate broad upper troughing persisting across the NE CONUS through the first half of the week. A deeper trough is progged across the region by the end of the week with continued shower/storms chances. Periodic restriction potential, primarily MVFR, will persist today as bouts of convection plague area terminals in advance of a Saturday cold front.
An upper trough over the Northeast Pacific Ocean will move east and bring breezy and gradually cooling conditions to the forecast area over the next couple days. The cooler marine influence will be felt this evening in West Side Valleys as onshore pressure gradients increase and breezy northwest winds arrive. Just enough moisture and instability will accompany the upper trough late this afternoon and evening to maintain the slight chance of thunderstorms for the Siskiyous, Cascades, and portions of the East Side.
An upper level ridge is located over western WA and OR this morning. As this ridge moves east some moisture will move north along the backside of the ridge.
Relatively deep ridging remains centered just to the north/northwest of our area. At the surface, high pressure extends across the state, keeping a steady east to southeast breeze in place. Although there are a few showers in the vicinity of the Lower Keys, these are quite light and small in areal coverage.
Those two things are difficult to discern especially since the sfc pattern looks very diffuse with just a baggy area of low pressure ovhd, but the sw flow off lk Mi may eventually lead to best convergence being near and east of 131 at peak heating.
Temps will be very comfortable today with slightly below normal temps, in the lower 80s, and lows tonight down into the 50s. It will be a little warmer Saturday with highs in the lower to mid 80s, still slightly below normal.
544 AM MDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Latest surface analysis shows rising pressures across the CWA as the high pressure builds south behind the departing cold front. Could see some shallow convection ovr the panhandle and in areas nearest the CO/WY stateline as the mid-level thermal trof moves thru around early in the afternoon.
Another round of SHRA/TSRA wl affect much of the area later tngt as a cold front moves into NW AR and another upper lvl impulse moves into the region.
Weakening high pressure aloft over California will offer up slight cooling across the area today and Saturday, however temperatures are expected to remain around normal through the weekend and the coming holiday. Temperatures are expected to range from upper the 50s to lower 70s at the coast with upper 70s to lower 90s for many inland locations, locally warmer in far inland spots. SFO Bridge Approach. Overcast 1100 at last ob for the San Mateo bridge with only slow clearing through 18z.
High pressure will build into for the latter portion of the weekend, lowering humidities and bringing dry weather back to the area. This morning's upper air supports high temperatures a little warmer than the current forecast, so will raise them a couple more degrees. Large hail cannot be entirely ruled out as midlevel instability profiles are decent, but freezing levels on the order of 13-14KFT will limit this threat. High pressure will dominate the rest of the short term and dry weather is a good bet.
Rainfall chances will be on the increase tonight/overnight along a southward moving cold front, that will impinge on ktxk initially. Digging trof over the Central Plains continues to push sewd, and an associated MCS over nrn OK/sern KS is ongoing as a result. Convection to continue as the trof/cold front digs into the srn Plains by late tonight, which will bring increasing PoPs to our region. Greatest chances for rain will be along I-20 and nwd, as the srn extent of the trof/front look to be limited by the upper ridge axis over NM/nrn Mexico. Increasing moisture combined with temperatures in the lower 90s will produce heat index readings between 100 and 105 today and Saturday.
644 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Weak cold front propagating through the region, now located from near Hallock into southeast North Dakota. Current radar imagery indicates mostly dry conditions across the region, with maybe an isolated shower along the cold front. Timed the cold front with 20 PoPs through the morning hours. Most CAM guidance suggests the more widespread showers/thunder will develop just east of the FA this afternoon as the cold front interacts with the axis of instability.
The rest of the forecast appears to be on track, with mostly clear skies everywhere but along the coast, and a very slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon over the higher mountains. Winds and seas will continue to diminish this morning as a thermal trough weakens and moves inland. However, winds will remain northerly with high pressure west and north of the waters. The thermal trough begins to strength again Saturday afternoon, and winds and seas will rise as a result.
An outflow boundary was between the IL river and I-55 while the main cold front was in se IA/WI into nw MO. Cold front to push se into the IL river valley by 00Z/7 pm and thru southeast IL between 06z-09Z overnight. Will keep chances of convection going until cold front passes by, with highest pops se of I-55. Another summery humid day with dewpoints of 65-75F and highs in the low to mid 80s. Weather is expected to remain unsettled through today and tonight as a cold front moves down from the NW across the CWA. and starting in the low 70s this morning all make daytime highs in the low 80s likely.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande valley and northern ranchlands today as the 500mb ridge across northern Mexico and west Texas provides subsidence across southwest TX this afternoon. /issued 350 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): 500mb ridge across west Texas and 500mb shear axis across the lower TX coast will provide subsidence across the CWA today. The shear axis will move westward tonight as the 500mb ridge across the Gulf of Mexico builds westward. With dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s today.
well north of the region with ridging holding over the Florida peninsula. High pressure will ridge across the waters through the period, keeping an E/SE flow across the waters with a weak sea breeze possible near the coast during the second half of the week.
A ridge of high pressure both surface and aloft will remain across the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians.
The dry but cold northerly flow on the backside of the upper level trough now over the northern Rockies will gradually push the clouds south and out of the forecast area today giving way to clear skies overnight. An upper low moving off to the east today will continue to send broken to overcast clouds and a few light snow showers into the area this morning.
1222 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 Warm front lifts through this morning with rain. Cold front midweek brings showers and storms. A warm front is making its way through the coal fields, and will continue lifting northward through this morning. Did not make any significant changes to high/low for today and tonight with a very mild airmass moving in behind the warm front. Good southerly flow and building heights across the region will result in temperatures well above normal on Tuesday, with some lowland locations topping out in the lower 80s.
It will take a while for the trough itself to push through the central U. In general, models agree the front will stall across central MO, allowing temperatures to drop to 32 degrees F or below tonight in northwest MO and northeast KS, resulting in a change over from rain to freezing rain. Freezing rain is the expected winter precip type due to a lack of ice crystal introduction and strong warm nose near 850 mb. This solution limits the cold surface air, which in turn limits the amount of freezing rain possible. With that said, freezing rain is expected tonight across northwest MO and northeast KS with up to 0. We will see a break from the wintry precipitation during the day Tuesday, but the cold front is slated to finally push through Tuesday night.
/issued 944 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018/ A disturbance rounding the high is creating showers over the Atlantic waters and portions of South Florida this morning. /issued 343 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018/ TODAY AND TONIGHT: Upper level ridge axis currently stretches across the FL peninsula early this morning, with a strengthening low level ridge as the main center moves off the New England coast. Upper level ridge center is expected to become more north-south oriented today. This will allow two disturbances, one located over the NW Bahamas/FL Straits, and another located just to the north of Hispaniola, to rotate into the region today and tonight as they round the base of the ridge. Otherwise, high temps remain 5-10 degrees above normal in the low to mid 80s, with a few upper 80s for interior Collier County.
The area will remain situated to the west of deep layer ridging. With a warm, moist airmass and light southerly flow across the area, we'll start off the day with another foggy morning, then warm into the low 80s after the fog clears.
Light snow was ongoing across much of the area this morning as energy and moisture streamed in from the southwest as an upper level trough dug over the Northern Rockies. trofs will keep temperatures from rising very quickly through the week.
Cloud cover has been a bit more sparse so far today when compared to previous days, and temperatures have been trending a bit warmer.
Highs will have a drastic range from the mid 20s in the northern half of our CWA versus our southern counties reaching the upper 30s to the lower 40s.
A cold front will exit the area by early Tuesday with cold temperatures and lighter winds behind it.
May get a degree or two warmer across the area over the next hour or two, so adjusted afternoon high temps up once again for locations west of the Cumberland Plateau Region. Current satellite trends showing bkn cloud coverage streaming in from the lower MS River Valley region, and this looks to continue thru the afternoon hours.
228 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 A warm front moving northward in the forecast area tonight will lift north of the area Tuesday. High pressure will be off the coast coast this week and bring warm and moist air into the forecast area. However, the chance for showers remains low through the rest of the week because of strong upper ridging over the Southeast. Based on the NAM LI pattern a lingering warm front will be in the forecast area tonight. It will be drier aloft associated with upper ridging. Upper-level ridging into the Southeast will inhibit convective development. Mild temperatures will continue with lows in the low 60s. Models continue to show good agreement with the persistent upper level ridge over the region.
318 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 A shallow cold airmass has moved across the northern half of Oklahoma (western half) today behind a cold front. Better shower and thunderstorm develop will arrive this evening and overnight as part of the western trough lifts northeast into the central and northern Plains. Precipitation chances will diminish from north to south on Tuesday as the cold front pushes into northern Texas by late Tuesday afternoon/early evening.
Currently, embedded mid level S/WV trough lifting northeast across the region interacting with a baroclinic zone to produce developing snowfall across southwest and far south central North Dakota early this afternoon. High pressure currently over far northern ND and into northeastern Montana will slowly build into western ND this evening, then across central ND Tuesday morning. Arctic air moving in with an area of high pressure will bring another period of bitter cold to the region.
300 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 Mid to upper level ridging centered east of the Florida Peninsula and the Bahamas supports an impressive anticyclone over the extreme western North Atlantic.
1128 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 Busy forecast this morning, dealing with the ongoing freezing drizzle and drizzle. The second round of precipitation develops tonight in response to the trough moving through the central Rockies. Thus, expecting areas of precipitation to develop through the evening, with freezing rain developing. In between along the I80 area, freezing drizzle will develop, which may eventually transition to some sleet through the night. Some light snow could linger in northeast NE Tuesday morning, but mostly, the freezing precipitation should end by 12-15z across the remainder of the area.
Upper trough will continue eastward today, keeping a chance of showers over the area through this afternoon. Isolated to scattered snow showers associated with upper trough will continue today. The showers will decrease tonight and Tuesday in most areas as the trough axis shifts east. However, the snow showers may continue in south central Idaho tonight near the trough axis before exiting to the east on Tuesday.
This will allow for a warm and dry afternoon, with highs reaching into the lower to mid 80s with some pockets of upper 80s possible. High pressure continues across the waters for the next several days, with an E/SE flow becoming light and variable near the coast in the afternoon.
Tonight: Some freezing drizzle possible tonight from warm air advection over shallow cold air in central Kansas and the Flint Hills.
Sfc wind gusts between 20 and 30 kts can be expected for much of the period, except for KBVO where the approaching cold front will relax the gradient.
235 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 Backdoor cold front is still wedged along the coast of southeast Georgia and slowly lifting north. The associated dense sea fog bank over the nearshore waters is getting pushed onshore and being mixed out as soon as it hits the warmer land areas. Another warm day expected on Tuesday as high pressure builds east of the area. A little better chance for some shower activity will be closer to the I-75 corridor during the afternoon hours as a weak embedded wave moves north around the western periphery of large upper high. Continued above normal temperatures with a warming trend with mostly dry conditions and late night/morning fog as upper level ridge strengthens across the region.
1248 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 Observations and calls around the area indicate that the freezing drizzle is mainly done. There could be some patchy freezing drizzle for a few location along Highway 81, but that should come to an end soon.
This trend is expected to continue tonight given the current trajectory of the upper flow/disturbances and the next cold front moving down off the southern Plains. Models are keeping with the idea of a very slow southerly trek of the weak cold front across the area during this timeframe. Rain chances go up again on Sat as long-range guidance brings the next cold front into the area (slightly faster than previous runs). Perhaps clearing and much drier weather is possible for Sun? 41 Southerly winds should increase tonight with a slight decrease during the day tomorrow as a cold front pushes into the Plains.
The dry but cold northerly flow on the backside of the upper level trough now over the northern Rockies will gradually push the clouds south and out of the forecast area today giving way to clear skies overnight.
An upper level ridge centered east of the Bahamas will strengthen while slowly moving northwest towards the Carolina coastlines through Tuesday. Clockwise flow around this high will keep local winds onshore and moisture levels high. Tuesday will be similar to today with a slight uptick in shower coverage as an upper trough west of the Rockies nudges east.
208 PM MST Mon Feb 19 2018 Deep upper trough continues to slowly cross the western CONUS with active southwesterly flow across the northern Plains.
Any spots that clear could be colder than forecast but we're still forecasting widespread -10 to - 20 across the entire lower elevations with even colder temps forecast for YNP and the low lying areas of the Bighorn Basin.
1028 AM PST Mon Feb 19 2018 Scattered light snow showers will slowly taper off across the lower Idaho Panhandle today.
301 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 Very light snows to a moderate flurry continue this afternoon as bottom of soundings remain just cold enough to produce snow as opposed to widespread freezing drizzle. That said, soundings are a bit warmer over the eastern zones along the Buffalo Ridge where very light freezing drizzle continues. 5-3C, the rather thick refreeze layer bottoms out near - 9C, so favoring more sleet as opposed to freezing rain as this activity moves through. Moving back northwest, anticipating a fairly broad area of 2-5" of snow, however, given signs of banding within the larger baroclinic zone, some of the higher snowfall amounts could be more localized in nature. Tuesday Night: A cold night is expected as high pressure moves southeast into the region.
322 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 WV imagery was showing a longwave trof extending from central Canada to the southern CA coastline along with a subtropical moisture feed streaming northeastward from the southern Plains to New England. At the surface, low pressure was centered over southeast IA with a strong colds front extending into northern then to central OK. With the onset of precip, soundings show the dominate precip type will be light freezing rain over the central/southern CWA, with a mix of light freezing drizzle/sleet to the north before making a change over to all snow shortly after midnight.
1256 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 Rain and much warmer air will overspread the region today.
Main story will be cold temperatures holding across the area as an arctic high settles down the high plains.
A large upper trough over the western third of the CONUS will shift east across the northern Rockies and into the central and southern Rockies tonight into Tuesday.
The 06 UTC GFS/NAM, 09 UTC SREF, and the 12 UTC HRRR/RAP all continue accumulating snow southwest this evening with the arrival of a series of impulses propagating out of the intermountain west longwave trough. A trough over the western CONUS continues to dig south as it propagates east towards the region.
349 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 Robust cold front is currently draped across the forecast area, stretched from Unionville, MO south-southwestward through Butler, MO. For this evening through overnight, the primary concern will be how far south and east the sub-freezing temperatures get, but with the cold front expected to retrograde and make a brief retreat back north and westward, it should keep the north side of KC warm enough to mitigate any significant icing issues. With temperatures already hovering around freezing at MCI, the other factor that should help mitigate significant icing issues will be how warm the surfaces, namely roads, are at the moment. As an upper-level trough inches closer to the region tomorrow, it'll give the front the push it needs to continue its eastward march it started today.
238 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 A a warm front will approach Pennsylvania from the southwest today, then push north of the area overnight and Tuesday.
P and freezing drizzle/rain with some snow mixed in over the SE half. Expect a mix of snow and freezing drizzle over roughly the NW half, favoring snow earlier in the night and a mix or more freezing drizzle later in the night. Over the SE half, mainly freezing drizzle will be favored. 500 mb trough in the Rockies and a strong 500 mb ridge off the se coast of the U. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge across the southeastern U. with a broad trough over the western U. Pattern changes little on Fri and then the trough starts to move into the Rockies and western high plains on Sat.