Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
00z surface and upper air data indicated nearly vertically stacked low pressure over southwest MO. Main upper low currently over OK will approach southern IL tonight, crossing southern IL Thursday morning. Deformation and frontogenesis on the northeast and north of the low will produce the most widespread period of heavy precipitation in central IL associated with this intense storm system late tonight into Thursday morning, with 1 to 2 inch amounts expected for this time period. High pressure builds in for Friday through the weekend for dry conditions, mostly clear skies, and a gradual warming trend.
Another cold front will move through the area Thursday night into Friday, with showers anticipated. Expect cooler, showery, and breezy conditions through this weekend.
253 AM MDT Thu Mar 18 2021 High pressure aloft will keep sunny dry and warmer conditions in place today and Friday. High temperatures today will range from the low to mid 60s central and west, to the low to mid 50s over SE Montana. The warmth will be enhanced by an approaching cold front that will increase downslope winds off the western mountains/foothills. Cold front moves through the area Friday evening, with precipitation chances increasing over the western mountains and foothills by midnight.
VCTS should develop for northern terminals by mid to late afternoon with the approach of a cold front with SHRA and isolated TSRA spreading south to the southwest terminals by early tonight as the front moves south through the region. Cold front will approach the state on Thu with an increase in southerly winds during the day with gusty conditions (gusts 25 to 35 mph) expected Thu afternoon as well as showers with a few embedded thunderstorms (a few strong to potentially severe over the northern Nature Coast) pushing down the peninsula, from the Nature Coast late Thu morning to southern locations overnight Thu/early Fri morning.
Winds overnight will go light and veer to the southeast as a low-amplitude upper level short wave ridge approaches from the west. Upper level pattern will be characterized by a ridge through the early part of the weekend.
The upper level ridge axis will shift east across the forecast area Friday. Patchy early morning fog and possible mid level clouds will gradually dissipate with sunshine and warmer temperatures expected across the forecast area. High temperatures will warm several degrees with further warm advection, lee troughing, and increased downslope.
1154 PM EDT Wed Mar 17 2021 Rain returns tonight and Thursday with crossing low pressure. A few snow showers will mix in as colder air arrives behind the low Thursday night. High pressure provides dry weather for Friday and the weekend. No major alterations were needed for the eve update as warm, moist advection across the Upr OH is underway in advance of low pressure emerging from the Southern Plains. Accumulations will be inhibited by the warm ground - minor accumulation on the grass is possible mainly north of I-80 and along the ridges. High pressure will suppress precipitation Friday morning with temperature dropping back below climatology.
The low clouds or fog over the panhandle will dissipate by late morning.
Expect min temperatures to be 5 to 10 degrees below normal tonight, as north winds slacken, and a ridge of high pressure moves over the area.
There remains a few pockets of elevated instability north of the surface warm front in southern Illinois, northwest Kentucky, and southwest Indiana. The highest PoPs will be along the I-64 corridor, in the likely to categorical range. Temperatures today will be steady or fall slowly as the cold front clears the area, falling into the upper 40s to lower 50s by 22z. Winds will relax a bit late tonight and skies will clear, allowing temperatures to fall in the lower to middle 30s. High temperatures will be a bit below normal in the lower to middle 50s, with northeast winds gusting up to 15-20 kts. this weekend as an upper level ridge builds east into the Mississippi and lower Ohio River Valleys.
257 AM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021 Rounds of showers with an occasional thunderstorm are currently moving into the region ahead of a deep, large upper level low (ULL) that spawned the severe weather across the Gulf Coast states yesterday. the first being near a cold front mainly along and north of the Ohio River, and the second along a pre- frontal trough/moisture gradient near the I-75 corridor. Cold front will gradually sweep through the region from the north overnight. Friday morning high pressure will stretch from Quebec through the Great Lakes and southern Plains to eastern Mexico.
256 AM CDT Thu Mar 18 2021 An upper low was located across northern AR early this morning with a deformation zone/TROWAL extending northwest across portions of east central and southeast KS. Though, I cannot rule out that some of the rain mixing with snow or IP at times but the majority of the precipitation will remain in the form of rain and low temperatures will remain above freezing. As the upper low shifts east-northeast into southeast MO by 12Z, the light rain, which may be mixed with snow across the southeast counties of the CWA will move east into MO. North winds and low-level CAA will keep highs in the lower to mid 50s with upper 40s across the southeast counties.
255 AM CDT Thu Mar 18 2021 Cooler and drier air continues to filter into the region this morning in the wake of a cold front on breezy northwest winds.
The cold front is still back to the west and will move across the area early Thursday morning. Temperatures will drop down into the low to mid 50s near sunrise Thursday morning. The overall wx pattern is then expected to turn more quiet/seasonal heading towards the end of the work week, as a large area of high pressure out of the nrn Plains builds into the Midwest/OH Valley states. Afternoon highs Thu/Fri look to range from the mid 50/near 60F, while lows Thu night trend in the lower/mid 40s. The next chance of rain still looks to develop on Tue, as another cold front approaches from the west. The showers and storms along a pre- frontal trough are now exiting to the east. The cold front is still back to the west with southerly winds expected for the next couple of hours.
The primary concern heading into Thursday will be the low relative humidity possibly enhancing fire weather conditions for many areas along and north of I-94. End of the week a ridge continues to build into the region, with dry conditions ensuing across eastern ND and west central/NW MN Friday. Under the ridge temperatures continue to warm, with pressure gradients strengthening.
Friday will see similar temperatures, if not a degree or two cooler. While the cooler temperatures will help relative humidity values rise to near 25 percent, a few pockets of elevated fire weather are possible today, mainly across northern and eastern areas.
There remains a few pockets of elevated instability north of the surface warm front in southern Illinois, northwest Kentucky, and southwest Indiana. The highest PoPs will be along the I-64 corridor, in the likely to categorical range. Temperatures today will be steady or fall slowly as the cold front clears the area, falling into the upper 40s to lower 50s by 22z. Winds will relax a bit and skies will clear, allowing temperatures to fall in the lower to middle 30s. High temperatures will be a bit below normal in the lower to middle 50s, with northeast winds gusting up to 15-20 kts. this weekend as an upper level ridge builds east into the Mississippi and lower Ohio River Valleys.
/issued 905 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021/ Convection and for that matter, cloud cover has now shifted east of the Mississippi River with our area experiencing clear skies with the exception of massive amounts of West Texas dust which is being entrained into the stacked upper level low which is currently spinning across NE OK into NW AR. What is also present is a very tight pressure gradient across the Southern Plains in the wake of a cold front which has pushed through all but our eastern third attm. Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect overnight through much of the day Thursday for the western 2/3rds of our region and the cloud cover should scatter out later in the day Thursday across all but our northern most zones which will result in a much cooler day compared to most we've seen lately.
Dry, warmer, and less windy weather is expected Thursday and Friday as a ridge of high pressure crosses from the west.
/NEW/ /Through Thursday Night/ Breezy and cool conditions will prevail today in the wake of our cold frontal passage. Wrap-around stratus will keep areas north of I-20 and east of I-35 partly or mostly cloudy through the morning, but this low-level moisture will eventually be departing the area to the east along with its associated potent storm system.
Some clearing has occurred behind the cold front late tonight but more clouds and some showers are possible again on throughout the day over our northern areas, as a strong upper low moves across the area. Temperatures right now are in the lower 60s with highs expected to be in the lower 50s today. High pressure will be moving into the region. With a clear sky, light winds, and cooler air will be briefly settling in.
High pressure meanders across the region this weekend, shifting from northern MN today to across the eastern Great Lakes by Sat night.
High pressure will deliver fair and warmer weather to northern Arizona for the remainder of this week.
155 AM MST Thu Mar 18 2021 A warming trend will occur today into Friday with a return to above normal temperatures as high pressure builds across the region.
Issued by National Weather Service Riverton WY 1047 PM MDT Wed Mar 17 2021 Latest water vapor loop was showing a quite a bit of ridging building over the Rockies which is a big relief from our recent snowstorm that took place a few days ago. Even though the upper level ridge will bring quite a bit of sunshine along with higher sun angle, temperatures will be slow to recover, due to strong albedo effects.
1133 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021 A mid/upper trough over western Oklahoma early this afternoon is progged to move eastward into northern Arkansas this evening. widespread precipitation is expected to fill in on the backside of this system during the afternoon hours and continue through the evening hours with an intense deformation band expected to develop on the northwest side of the mid/upper trough. A mid/upper ridge is progged to build into the central CONUS late in the week and into the weekend bringing dry and mild conditions to the area.
1248 AM CDT Thu Mar 18 2021 Had to already lower overnight lows into the lower teens across most of southwest North Dakota, as temperatures have fallen even further since the previous update. Upper level analysis places low over Oklahoma, with ridge stretching from the Great Basin towards the Canadian plains. Upper ridge remains dominate feature for Friday with well above average temperatures and increasing southerly winds. Ridge pushes east for the weekend with southwest flow setting up.
358 AM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021 A strong area of low pressure will pass south of the area tonight.
We are still looking to our southwest focusing on the location of the warm front as this remains the best chance for storms to begin to tap into the lower level of the atmosphere and realize the strong low level shear. The highest threat for strong to severe storms and tornadoes will continue to be the highest across central/northern Mississippi and Alabama this evening. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 46 56 39 60 / 20 20 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 45 53 35 59 / 80 40 20 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 66 44 54 35 60 / 70 50 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 42 52 30 58 / 90 70 30 10 0 TN.
Rain will change to snow across the northern tier Thursday evening/night with a few inches of accumulation possible in the higher elevations by Friday morning.
144 AM MDT Thu Mar 18 2021 Water vapor shows western CONUS ridge building into the Plains, with next trof offshore the west coast.
High temperatures will break into the lower 50s Friday afternoon with plenty of sunshine.
As broad ridging aloft moves across the north central CONUS on Friday, expect mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures, with highs in the mid 50s east to mid 60s southwest.
But, should snow develop, impacts will remain fairly minimal given the warmer antecedent conditions.
A mid- level ridge will continue to build across the region through the early part of the weekend. A weak s/w does move through the ridge tonight and Friday, but the troposphere looks supremely dry, so not expecting any pcpn.
648 AM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021 A low pressure system will move across the area today bringing with it the potential for some heavy rain and severe weather. High pressure and dry conditions will be present for the weekend. There will be the potential for severe weather primarily across southeastern portions of the forecast area closer to the area of low pressure.
Much more pleasant conditions are expected Friday under clear skies with upper-level ridging dominating the Midwest with large-scale subsidence from mid-level height rises. Despite abundant sunshine, a cold air mass across the region in the wake of the departing upper- level closed low will only allow temps to warm to slightly below average. Pfahler The upper-level ridge that arrives Friday will remain in place over the Midwest through the weekend with continued mostly clear skies expected. As an associated low-level ridge shift east into the Northeast, low-level flow across the Midwest will become southerly, inducing WAA.
A warming trend will occur today into Friday with a return to above normal temperatures as high pressure builds across the region.
311 AM MDT Thu Mar 18 2021 Upper ridging is expected to maintain influence over the region for the next couple of days. This will provide dry weather and warmer temperatures to NE Montana during this time.
Cool and dry conditions will remain in place with high temperatures settling into the lower to middle 60s. lows will likely fall into the lower to middle 30s.
A pair of troughs of low pressure will move inland across southern California on the weekend which will bring stronger onshore flow and cooling.
525 AM MDT Thu Mar 18 2021 Quiet weather is expected for the short term period as a strong ridge of high pressure sets up over the Intermountain West. As of early this morning, the ridge axis was located over Utah and will slowly translate eastward as the day progresses. Satellite imagery currently depicts a mainly clear sky, but scattered mid and high level cloud cover can be seen spilling eastward over the ridge axis into eastern Utah and western Colorado.
Rounds of showers with an occasional thunderstorm are currently moving into the region ahead of a deep, large upper level low (ULL) that spawned the severe weather across the Gulf Coast states yesterday. the first being near a cold front mainly along and north of the Ohio River, and the second along a pre- frontal trough/moisture gradient near the I-75 corridor. Cold front will gradually sweep through the region from the north overnight. Friday morning high pressure will stretch from Quebec through the Great Lakes and southern Plains to eastern Mexico.
The main issue today looks to be the strong nwrly flow as good CAA lingers behind yesterday's cold frontal passage. /issued 255 AM CDT Thu Mar 18 2021/ Cooler and drier air continues to filter into the region this morning in the wake of a cold front on breezy northwest winds.
The low stratus along the ND/SD state line has started expanding back north into southwest North Dakota, which has likely helped keep fog in these areas at bay, since we've seen improvement in the Glen Ullin area over the past hour as the clouds moved overhead. As broad ridging aloft moves across the north central CONUS on Friday, expect mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures, with highs in the mid 50s east to mid 60s southwest.
/issued 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 18 2021/ An upper level trough is centered over northern Arkansas/southern Missouri and will continue to move east today.
Rain will change to snow across the northern tier this evening with up to 2 or 3 inches of accumulation possible over the higher elevations by Friday morning, and maybe an inch in the valleys.
1035 AM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021 A soaking rain today will change to snow across the northern tier this evening with up to 2 or 3 inches of accumulation possible over the higher elevations by Friday morning.
Breezy conditions can be expected today with the higher winds speeds and gusts around KGLH. The upper low was slowly trekking east this morning with clouds redeveloping in the far west zones. The cold front has passed and cooler drier air was already settling over the area. It's been breezy most of the night, but winds have not quite come around, so cooler/drier air is limited to the far west. Tried to tweak the low for last night and the afternoon highs to show slightly warmer conditions. Thinking with conditions being warmer this morning, highs today may be slightly warmer, mainly in the east/northeast. Not totally sold on the lower to mid 40s across the area tonight with winds and clouds expected.
The upper low was slowly trekking east this morning with clouds redeveloping in the far west zones. The cold front has passed and cooler drier air was already settling over the area. It's been breezy most of the night, but winds have not quite come around, so cooler/drier air is limited to the far west. Tried to tweak the low for last night and the afternoon highs to show slightly warmer conditions. Thinking with conditions being warmer this morning, highs today may be slightly warmer, mainly in the east/northeast. Not totally sold on the lower to mid 40s across the area tonight with winds and clouds expected.
The cold front associated with this low pressure system will move over north- central Idaho and northwest Montana by Friday morning and bring rain showers, clouds and cooler temperatures.
519 AM MDT Thu Mar 18 2021 Water vapor shows western CONUS ridge building into the Plains, with next trof offshore the west coast.
A Pacific trough moves in by Friday afternoon and brings cooler temperatures, along with increased chances for rain/snow showers for the weekend. Ridging aloft peaks in amplitude this afternoon, pushing today's highs well into the upper 50s to near 70 degrees for most locations. Then the high pressure ridge becomes displaced as southwesterly flow aloft increases ahead of the next approaching Pacific weather system. Any precipitation that falls during the day on Friday looks to be light and likely to fall in the form of rain, though some wet snow can be expected over the higher peaks. Breezy south to southwesterly winds are expected to continue over the plains and the north/south oriented valleys of the southwest, though winds will become more westerly for north-central areas once the surface cold front passes through.
Issued a Wind Advisory through the afternoon given enough areas reaching criteria after leaning on the higher MAV guidance which does better in strong post-frontal regimes. Aloft, a 500 mb trough in the southern stream remains stuck a bit over the region underneath larger ridge in the northern stream.
409 AM CDT Thu Mar 18 2021 Challenges and concerns in the short term will be temps and potential fire weather conditions as high pressure brings a dry airmass with clear skies and ample insolation to the region. Temps look to be a few degrees warmer than today with highs for most locations in the 50s.
The good news is temperatures have and will remain above freezing, so not anticipating much of an impact with these showers/drizzle. Precipitation, mainly in the form of rain, will become more widespread across southern Vermont by mid-day as a low pressure system tracks along the Ohio River Valley. Very quiet conditions expected for the weekend as broad high pressure settles directly over the Northeast.
Light rain/snow showers continue to progress east this morning across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas on the backside of exiting upper low.
316 AM MDT Thu Mar 18 2021 Quiet weather is expected for the short term period as a strong ridge of high pressure sets up over the Intermountain West. As of early this morning, the ridge axis was located over Utah and will slowly translate eastward as the day progresses. Satellite imagery currently depicts a mainly clear sky, but scattered mid and high level cloud cover can be seen spilling eastward over the ridge axis into eastern Utah and western Colorado.
Forecast on track for a day of sun and light winds as ridge of high pressure slides east. Challenges and concerns in the short term will be temps and potential fire weather conditions as high pressure brings a dry airmass with clear skies and ample insolation to the region. Temps look to be a few degrees warmer than today with highs for most locations in the 50s.
An upper low was located across northern AR early this morning with a deformation zone/TROWAL extending northwest across portions of east central and southeast KS. Though, I cannot rule out that some of the rain mixing with snow or IP at times but the majority of the precipitation will remain in the form of rain and low temperatures will remain above freezing. As the upper low shifts east-northeast into southeast MO by 12Z, the light rain, which may be mixed with snow across the southeast counties of the CWA will move east into MO. North winds and low-level CAA will keep highs in the lower to mid 50s with upper 40s across the southeast counties.
However, divergent jet forcing will have rapidly departed north central FL by 00Z, leaving very weak low level convergence and a dearth of mid level forcing to support any maintenance of convection along/just ahead of the cold front. Turning cooler behind the front overnight, with mins ranging from the U50s across Lake/Volusia Cos to the U60s in Martin Co.
621 AM CDT Thu Mar 18 2021 Current observations across the region reveal quiet conditions with temperatures hover at or just below freezing, as dry northerly winds continue to erode the stratus deck overhead. Shortly after daybreak, expect upper level ridging to gradually build in from the west, with winds forecast to become more northeasterly. Given the optimal conditions in place for radiational cooling, have overnight lows falling into the low to mid 20s. definitely a bit cooler than the past few nights. Expect much of the same in terms of quiet conditions and clear skies heading into the weekend, with southerly winds forecast to gradually ramp up as an upper level trough digs into the Rockies.
Lows tonight will again be mainly in the low to mid 70s, and highs on Thursday warming into the mid to upper 90s. (Thursday night through next Wednesday) A 595dam ridge at the 500mb level will continue to be the predominant weather feature over the next few days and into the weekend. Models are in agreement that West Central Texas will remain at the southern periphery of this ridge.
Slightly warmer than average high temperatures look likely into the foreseeable future over the forecast area. This is due to moist southeasterly flow that is typical for this time of the year due to ridging over the central/western US. This pattern of elevated moisture and instability will stay in place through the weekend as easterly waves rotating around the ridge of high pressure enter the region.
/issued 236 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021/ The center of the upper level ridge is slowly dropping south towards the forecast area this afternoon which is bringing in drier air aloft.
Temperatures will continue to cool as the cold front moves farther south and east and the sun sets. A cold front moving southeast across the region is analyzed, at this time, almost two-thirds of the way through the CWA this afternoon, located from appx Britton to Murdo. As for temperatures, the low level dry air advection/cold air advection being started this afternoon behind this current cold frontal passage will continue overnight and during the day on Thursday. Much cooler temperature readings are in store for Thursday.