Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
335 PM CST FRI JAN 1 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AND TOPPED OUT IN THE LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER.
2016 WILL BEGIN WITH A COOLER PATTERN THAT WILL LAST WELL INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF THE NEW YEAR. THE BLYR IS MIXING NICELY AND THE LOW SFC DEPOINTS ARE INDICATING THAT THE COLUMN IS DRYING OUT ON THE WHOLE. THE BEGINNING OF THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE NEW YEAR WILL START OFF UNDER A MEAN UPPER TROUGH.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER/MID 40S MOST LOCATIONS WITH POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S OVER SOME OF THE WESTERN RANCHLANDS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 40S WITH UPPER 40S/NEAR 50 ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY.
THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY THROUGH ADA COUNTY GENERALLY REPORTING CALM WINDS OR GENERALLY LIGHT EAST. THE EASTERLY WINDS HAVE HELPED PUSH ANY FOG/STRATUS INTO THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY IN OR AND ID ALONG WITH THE BAKER AND WEISER VALLEYS. THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY SHOULD BREAK OUT LATER THIS MORNING BUT SOUNDINGS FOR BAKER SHOWING LITTLE IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY. AND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AS OF 16Z/FRI. THEN CONFINE ITSELF TO THE LOWER TREASURE.
233 PM MST FRI JAN 1 2016 NO BIG WEATHER CONCERNS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE MEAN TROF WAS OVER THE ERN USA ALONG WITH CONFLUENT FLOW. A COUPLE WEAK SFC TROFS WILL MOVE THRU. THE HIGH REMAINS PARKED IN-PLACE. WITH MODELS SHOWING A SHARP RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NW IN TO WRN CANADA. SET UP BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OVER THE PAC NW AND BROADER TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST/NERN CONUS. AND THE RIDGING BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE ROCKIES. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SW FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO THE HIGH PLAINS. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS BEING CUT OFF OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA.
INCREASING THKNS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATING TEMPS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 30S TODAY/SAT/SUN.
Continued a warmer trend for today with ample insolation expected. Overall, trended cooler.
LOW CHANCE POPS NORTHERN TIER AND IN THE RIDGES WITH ANY ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN INCH. AS A DEEPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY MEAN FLOW WILL WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST ENDING SNOW SHOWERS.
Temperatures are a bit warmer over our CWA, which should limit the eastward extent of the light snow. /issued 531 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016/ /12Z TAFS/ Ceilings are mainly in the low end of the MVFR category this morning (1,000-2,000 ft) with a few locations briefing dropping into IFR range. Temperatures may drop to around 32 degrees overnight, but with readings hovering right around freezing, the potential for ice accumulations will remain low. Thus, no freezing rain was included in the weather type.
A RESIDUAL COLD FRONT WAS STILL SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
116 PM EST FRI JAN 1 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND BRING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE DECREASING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AT SEASONAL NORMS TO START 2016 WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 50S EAST OF THE RIDGE AND GENERALLY LOWER 40S TO THE WEST. LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S WEST TO UPPER 20S EAST. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROF PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN U.
BLOCKY RIDGE-OVER-LOW PATTERN EVIDENT WITHIN SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THUS EXPECTING A FAIRLY DRY AND COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LIFTS NW INTO OREGON AND WARMER AIR BEGINS TO SEEP INTO SRN IDAHO.
AND SATURDAY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY INTO SATURDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. WINDS PROGGED TO TURN MORE WESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE NORTH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
There may be a better chance to see a reduction in stratus this afternoon and tonight since the low over northern California is forecast to move toward Idaho and Montana which will subtly shift our flow pattern. In any case, a mix of dense freezing fog, cloud cover, and light snow out of the cloud cover can be expected for Saturday.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND BARELY EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS NOW BEEN PUSHED WELL SOUTH INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE JUST WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA IS A WEAK RIDGE AND FINALLY CLOSED LOW WEST OF THE ROCKIES. FRONTAL BOUNDARY THATS BEEN THE FOCUS OF RAINFALL HAS DRIFTED SOUTHWARD WITH THE SHEAR ZONE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGES.
300 PM CST FRI JAN 1 2016 ISSUED AT 300 CST FRI JAN 1 2016 THIS AFTERNOON A MID-UPPER LOW WAS CUT-OFF OVER NORTHERN CA WHILE A SHARP. A BLOCKING UPPER-DECK RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO BRITISH COLUMBIA. A SE-SURGING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS KS & WITH CLEAR SKIES SAT NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY. WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE S/SE FLOW WILL RETURN TO ALL AREAS MON NIGHT.
AS THE LOW TO MID LEVELS STEADILY MOISTEN VIA THE PACIFIC MOISTURE AND VIRGA. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN THESE AREAS SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY SLEET ACCUMULATION OR ASSOCIATED TRAVEL IMPACTS. OUR SOUTHERN ZONES MAY AGAIN SEE SOME SLEET MIXED IN AS TEMPERATURES COOL BUT WOULD NOT EXPERIENCE ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS GROUND TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT ACROSS THESE AREAS.
SFC RIDGING CONTINUED TO SETTLE IN NEAR THE CWA. TEMPS HAVE THEREFORE STRUGGLED TO RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. AN UPTICK IN 850 MB TEMPS AND BETTER INSOLATION WILL LEAD TO A WARMER /40S/ AND DRIER DAY.
PESKY FREEZING FOG IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS MAY END UP STAYING IN PLACE LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED AND I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT POSSIBILITY. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. CURRENT BREEZY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS (GUSTS 18-25 KTS) FROM KGTF TO KCTB WILL PERSIST THRU THE MORNING HOURS THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTN AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN MT/DAKOTAS STEADILY WEAKENS. WITH HIGH TEMPS GETTING A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING TODAY IN CENTRAL MT, HAVE ADDED MENTION OF VCFG TONIGHT AT KHVR/KLWT TO ACCOUNT FOR COOLING OF MOISTURE FROM MELTING SNOW COVER.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 40S.
Otherwise, weak upper ridging will build into the region over the weekend.
Sunshine will ultimately return today, making a slow west to east appearance as H5 energy aloft makes for a dry/trof passage.
1127 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016 STATUS DECK ADVECTING RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AS UPPER TROF PASSES THROUGH THE STATE. WILL SEE WARM ADVECTION INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THERMAL RIDGING BUILDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE PLAINS FROM DOWNSLOPE CHINOOK FLOW. THIS AIRMASS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DECENT WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WHICH WILL ENHANCE MIXING BY AFTERNOON AND PUSH READINGS TOWARDS THE FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE IN THE SOUTH WITH 20S REMAINING IN THE FAR NORTH. COULD SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATUS CLIP NRN IOWA TONIGHT ALONG A WEAK TROUGH.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE. WIND CHILLS NOT QUITE AS LOW AS EARLIER EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER. DRY AND GENERALLY CLEAR WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL BE DOMINATED BY A MEAN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING EAST FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND A SERIES OF PACIFIC TROUGHS WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGHS WILL BE CONFINED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 20S SATURDAY ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STARTING TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
240 PM EST FRI JAN 1 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE BROAD LOW PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION.
341 PM EST FRI JAN 1 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA.
THE MEAN TROF WAS OVER THE ERN USA ALONG WITH CONFLUENT FLOW. A COUPLE WEAK SFC TROFS WILL MOVE THRU. THE HIGH REMAINS PARKED IN-PLACE.
However, a trough from the NW will bring clouds back to the area for the afternoon. Dry and cool conditions will continue thanks to a high pressure system to our SW.
WARM/DRY DOWNSLOPE AIR WILL SPILL OVER EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND SUPPORT WARM NW FLOW INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE SIDED WARMER PER HIGHS.
1258 PM EST FRI JAN 1 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF ICE NUCLEI COULD PRESENT A BRIEF SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE ISSUE AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY. BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA/EAST COAST.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK TROUGH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO CENTRAL WY. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED REX-TYPE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA/NORTHWEST US INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PLAINS WILL SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO SNOWCOVER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 30S WILL NOT REBOUND MUCH TODAY. ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE A FEW GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
RADARS HAVE SHOWN SOME LIGHT REFLECTIVITY RETURNS BUT GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE COMPACT LOW SPINS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN AS REGION REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF RIDGING TO THE EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COMPACT LOW. QUIET WEATHER REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.
THESE CLOUDS WERE COVERING MUCH OF THE DVN CWA (EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTH) AND WERE KEEPING TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT WARMER THAN EXPECTED. CURRENT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S. WITH A WARMER THAN EXPECTED START TO THE DAY I HAVE RAISED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO. SATURDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER.
112 PM EST FRI JAN 1 2016 DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY TO START THE NEW YEAR. BROAD COLD FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING. WITH AN UPPER TROF DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS. THE SPLIT IN THE FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS FAVORS KEEPING A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OFF TO OUR WEST THRU THE PERIOD WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPS MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL.
BITTER COLD AIR REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE HIGH MTN VALLEYS BENEATH A STRONG SFC BASED INVERSION WITH CURRENT TEMPS STILL 10 BELOW TO 18 BELOW ZERO ACRS MIDDLE AND NORTH PARKS. WE WILL BE IN THE COL BETWEEN THE LOW OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. BUT A FAVORABLE WEST TO NORTHWEST MIXING WIND SHOULD HELP REALIZE SOME OF THE WARMER AIR ALOFT.
FULL SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS MN. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN WI THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME GUSTINESS TO THE NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN MN. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE COLDEST IN WESTERN MN (SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO) WHERE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR UNDER A RIDGE AXIS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THE HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH BY A FEW DEGREES. THE NET CHANGE ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST MADE TODAY WAS NEGLIGIBLE.
126 PM EST FRI JAN 1 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS TROUGH PUSHES TO THE EAST. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEPS SKIES CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. A TROUGH PASSING THROUGH MANITOBA AND ONTARIO WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE REGION. A RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD TODAY. ADVECTING WARMER AIR ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. BREEZY WINDS AROUND 20 MPH ARE LIKELY TODAY AND WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHILL TO THE AIR EVEN THOUGH ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS WEEK.
1238 PM EST FRI JAN 1 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
314 PM CST FRI JAN 1 2016 UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS.
WITH RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. TROUGHING IS EVOLVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEYS. DESPITE TROUGHING OCCURRING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE MORE MIXED. AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. AND SURFACE RIDGING CURRENTLY ALIGNED ACROSS OUR AREA GETS NUDGED A BIT MORE SOUTH. WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. WITH HIGHS RECOVERING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. RIDGE/VALLEY DIFFERENCES WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SHELTERED VALLEYS LOOK TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S ONCE AGAIN. WHILE RIDGES STAY UP IN THE LOWER 30S.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK RIDGE TO PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE WEEKEND. TO ADD TO THE CHILL EAST WINDS HAVE BEEN BLOWING THROUGH THE CANYON MOUTHS ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT AND ACROSS THE RIDGES AS WELL. THESE WINDS WILL RELAX SOME IN CANYONS TODAY BUT ANTICIPATE THE GUSTY WINDS ON RIDGE TOPS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.
Considering the similar airmass in place and the lack of cold air being advected into the area, the recent trend has been for high temperatures to warm up a few degrees more than the previous day, so have continued this trend with Saturday high temperatures forecast to reach into the low/mid 40s.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY OR TWO OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER COMPARED TO THIS MORNING, HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF WARMING GREATLY VARIES FROM JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO NEARLY 10 DEGREES DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. FOR NOW, LEARNING TOWARD THE LOWER NUMBER SINCE THE COLD EVENTS DUE TEND TO HANG AROUND LONGER THAN USUALLY ANTICIPATED.
COLD FRONT MAKING SLOW PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSHING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE EXTREME NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY ELONGATING W-E UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR BLUE CANYON CA WILL LIKELY LIFT NWD INTO OREGON BY SATURDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO EFFECT THIS FAR EAST. SO WITH CONTINUED WARMER AIR ALOFT. LOWS MORE IN THE ZERO TO MINUS TEN RANGE WITH HIGHS 20-25 DEGREES WARMER GENERALLY. ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE MIXED AREAS IN THE EAST AND CENTRAL FOOTHILLS WITH GENERALLY TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN THE BASINS AND TEENS SWEETWATER COUNTY. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WITH LIMITED MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING SATURDAY NIGHT.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN AT 500 MB FEATURES A REX BLOCK OVER THE FAR WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION DOWN INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. WARMER AIR WAS PUSHING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA. SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST.
WATER VAPOR SHOWED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. AND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.
WITH A TROUGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. AND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST. A COLD FRONT IS MIGRATING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT BODIES OF WATER. FORECAST - THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MIGRATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH FLORIDA TONIGHT. COOLER WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS WAVE WAS ALSO LEADING TO WINDS IN THE LOW TEENS AND SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW ON NORTH/SOUTH ROADWAYS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR WEATHER INTO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DOMINANT NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE COOLER THIS MORNING WHERE I BUSTED ON THE LOWS. TEMPERATURES STAY WARMER THAN I HAD FORECAST. THE ECMWF AGAIN SEEMS MUCH WARMER THAN ANY OTHER MODEL. THIS SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE HIGHS. AND HIGHS TOMORROW MAY NOT REACH ABOVE FREEZING.
BUT IT COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER OR COOLER DEPENDING ON DECOUPLING IN LOCAL AREAS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND COULD BE WARMER THAN PROGGED IF CLOUDS MOVE IN.
A weak/dry front will slide through the Great Lakes region tomorrow night and bring cooler temps to the area for the weekend.
Afternoon temperatures will continue to moderate this afternoon, helped along by some westerly downslope, into the lower 40s.
THE STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS CAUSED SO MUCH DISRUPTION WILL FINALLY PUSH FURTHER SOUTH TODAY AS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN FOURTH OF THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE KEEPING CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH MORE SEASONABLE WINTER TEMPS.
EXPECT THE LOW CLOUD DECK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
/ISSUED 1115 AM CST FRI JAN 1 2016/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
2016 WILL BEGIN WITH A COOLER PATTERN THAT WILL LAST WELL INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF THE NEW YEAR. THE BLYR IS MIXING NICELY AND THE LOW SFC DEWPOINTS ARE INDICATING THAT THE COLUMN IS DRYING OUT ON THE WHOLE. THE BEGINNING OF THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE NEW YEAR WILL START OFF UNDER A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGIONS.
1147 AM EST FRI JAN 1 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY INTO SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA.
308 PM CST FRI JAN 1 2016 AT H5 HUGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. BLOCKING PATTERN WITH UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND HIGH OVER NORTHERN WASHINGTON. UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A 500HPA RIDGE. THINKING WARMING PATTERN AND 15 TO 20KT WINDS AT 850HPA WILL BE ENOUGH TO GO ON THE HIGH END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS. KEPT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE RIVER VALLEYS WHERE SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHTER THAN SURROUNDING AREAS AND IN THE PANHANDLE WHERE LOWS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY COLDER THAN THE SANDHILLS.
Temperatures will remain slightly below normal with highs generally in the upper 30s to around 40 and lows tonight in the lower 20s.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. AND A LACK OF ANY COLD FRONTS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 30S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY UPTICK ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DUE TO THE SURFACE RESPONSE FORM THE RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TODAYS RAIN.
A DEEP UPPER LOW WAS PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS HOUR. THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A PIECE OF ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE NEAREST THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO COLORADO ON SATURDAY AND PUSHES THE EASTERN ENERGY INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE WEST. MORE CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST WINDS AT 850MB WILL PROVIDE A COOLER DAY ON SATURDAY.
331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015 MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1024MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. UPPER HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY BY SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.
135 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
NOT STARTING THE ONSET OF RAIN IN THE ELKHART AREA UNTIL 01-03Z TIME FRAME AND THE HIGHWAY 283 CORRIDOR UNTIL 06-08Z.
307 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015 Large upper trough over the western U. First round of precipitation could affect areas near and south of the KC area as early as this afternoon, though this activity will be encountering low-level ridging and some dry low-level air by the time it makes it this far east.
628 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL LATER TONIGHT. STILL HAVE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES TONIGHT. FOCUS SHIFTS TO A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HAVING BUILT IN OVER THE AREA BEHIND A NEAR TERM COLD FRONT. THIS ALLOWS A S TO SW FLOW OF WARMER AIR TO BRING ABOUT MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SPREADING INTO THE INTERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD COVER MOST OF THE LOWLANDS IN A FEW HOURS.
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER FOR THE AREA ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY. SLIGHT WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS NOW MOVED TO THE SOUTH AND IS CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
A WEAK TROUGH REACHES SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.
257 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TODAY WILL BE OVER DELMARVA SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AND COOL AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
142 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT CURRENT UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE THE CALIFORNIA COAST. SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE SFC FLOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS IS COMBINING WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE ROCKIES THIS AFTN. A NARROW ZONE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FAVOR THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SRN CWA. THE SHORT- WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PRESENT IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS.
301 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED HIGH ELEVATION THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. COMPLEX UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED VORTICIES WILL MAKE FOR AN UNSTABLE PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR TODAY AND CONTINUING ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.