Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Over the wrn CONUS, the upper trough has begun to move east and de-amplify, resulting in upper-lvl diffluence over parts of West Texas and New Mexico. Thus, areas west are still favored for convection overnight, then shifting to the northwest zones Sunday as the upper trough passes thru.
1220 PM MDT Sat Oct 8 2016 A ridge of high pressure will remain over the western Gulf of Mexico today through Sunday, while a broad upper trough rests over the SW U. Late tonight through Sunday moisture will rotate north from Mexico along the western periphery of the western gulf high and be funneled north by the trough overthe SW U. As this trough slowly moves northeast over AZ Sat. The trough should move into SW CO Sunday with precip and clouds migrating north into central CO and UT. The above mentioned trough crosses southwest Colorado Sunday morning and should lead to scattered showers mainly south south of highway 50.
leading edge of cold front hanging across southern CWA and was apparent on KGLD radar imagery. Temps about 10 degrees cooler behind this front. Another surge of cooler air working into northeast Colorado with large area of 30 to 40 kt winds occurring behind it. as cooler air settles into the area expect temps to dip into the upper 30s or low 40s.
Much cooler air mass in place across the area. Cloud cover and increasing winds in advance of the next cold front should not allow temperatures too drop much.
Strong zonal jet stream to the south of the area buckles, deepening trof over the area this afternoon and tonight. As the trof deepens it also pulls down a weak cold front from the north. Precipitation chances increase tonight with some jet enhanced divergence sliding into the area from the west along with increased QG forcing as the back edge of the trof approaches. Keeping precipitation chances in the 30 to 40 percent range for the lower elevations overnight into the day Wednesday. Temperatures will be cold enough for a mix of rain/snow in the lower elevations overnight into Wednesday morning. With substantial cloud cover and showers in the area, Wednesday temperatures will hold in the low to mid 50s.
331 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016 At 3 AM, a cold front extended from Green Bay Wisconsin to Des Moines Iowa.
254 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2016 Another breezy and unseasonably warm day is on tap with high pressure over the SE U. A cold front will approach our far NW counties by 00z. But some of the higher res guidance shows isolated activity could continue down through the middle of the area.
Patchy fog is really being inhibited by the 25-30KT LLJ overhead as well as the warmer surface temperatures allowing for winds to slightly mix down. Hot and humid conditions are expected across the coastal plains generally east of Highway 281, while hot and dry conditions are expected west of the highway across the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains. PWATs remain low through the day and evening, keeping things dry, but models begin to show an increase in moisture from the western gulf late tonight through Wednesday as the main midlevel ridge shifts east.
Unseasonably warm, near record, daytime temperatures continue across north and central Georgia as ample sunshine and upper-level ridging dominate through Wednesday.
Drier and somewhat cooler air will arrive today, though high temperatures will still be 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Wednesday will feature increasing clouds as a weak trough moves through.
319 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016 Warm and breezy today ahead of an approaching cold front. Unsettled weather into late week will give way to much cooler temperatures for the weekend. Warm weather will remain through Wednesday despite a cold front approaching the region this evening and slowly crossing Wednesday.
A cold front will drop into the area today and stall in the Ohio Valley through mid week, before moving eastward late in the week as a large upper trough swings into the Great Lakes.
High pressure briefly moves in Wednesday, with dry conditions and light winds.
Overnight, high pressure ridge to the southeast puts the Midwest under return flow as WAA dominates the overnight. A cold front, that currently extends from the Great Lakes region into the central Plains, is forecast to stall in the vicinity of the Ohio River Valley Tuesday night as it becomes parallel to the upper- level flow.
507 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016 A cold front will approach the area this evening and move through tonight.
A second push of cooler air will move in Tuesday night bringing about 5-10 degrees of cooling for Weds. Another impulse will drop southeast down the high plains Weds and bring some scattered showers to mainly the northeast half of the CWA on Weds.
Upper level ridge that was centered west of the region is now nearly overhead this morning. At the surface, ridge of high pressure extends from the western Atlantic across the southeastern United States.
150 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016 High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will keep conditions warm and dry for the next few days before a frontal system approaches for the end of the week. Expect dry/benign weather to persist with temperatures rising a few more degrees in comparison to today, in the lower 80s (a good 10F above normal), lows Tue night near 60F. Lows Wednesday night will fall back into the lower 60s.
327 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016 An upper-level ridge will build across the area through Wednesday.
An upper ridge will expand over the area and surface temperatures are forecast to reach record values today in most locations.
The 500 MB cold pool of -26C is roughly over the Cascades at 15Z with warmer air moving in rapidly behind aloft as the system exits to the east. Showers continue to taper off in onshore flow as the warmer air aloft decreases lapse rates with an upper level ridge building into the region.
415 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2016 (Today and Tonight) Early this morning, a weak cold front stretched across the southern Texas panhandle and extended east across southwest Oklahoma. Temperatures will be cooler behind the front today, with highs topping out in the mid and upper 80s across the Big Country. Temperatures south of the front will be very warm again today, with highs in the lower 90s.
Late day convection along an approaching cold front will bring increased clouds to the northwest counties tonight.
The region remains under a deep ridge this morning, however with enough heat and instability this afternoon a few showers will be possible. The ridge will shift east and weaken Wednesday as a trough digs into the plains.
Moisture remains trapped in the lower levels this morning, so daytime CU field will later this morning with cigs around 3500. /issued 343 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): The H5 ridge finally begins to shift away from deep south Texas later today, which will get the region out from the oppressive late summer heat. With the ridge shifting east by tonight, cloud cover along the coast will have a better ability for vertical development. Wednesday, models indicate a small vort max wrapping around the departing ridge, pushing inland further up the coast between CRP and Houston. High Wednesday will be slightly lower as the compressional heating under the ridge departs.
High pressure will build through the remainder of the week resulting in warmer daytime temps and cool overnight lows as the airmass gradually dries.
Light rain mixed with snow for the higher elevations will occur across the northern mountain ranges, and as far south as the Ruby mountains. High pressure brings drier and warmer weather beginning on Wednesday. On wednesday a ridge starts to build across the great basin bringing dry weather and mostly cloud free skies. The ridge will usher in a period of light winds as a weak pressure gradient sits over the Great Basin. Warming conditions return with the ridge however lows are expected to drop initially into the 20's with the lack of cloud cover to trap daytime heating.
Meanwhile at the surface a cold front continues to push south into the southern plains. On top of that the cold front should be all the way through the forecast area by day break. The cold air advection from this initial front appears to be short lived as the high pressure system gradually weakens through the day today. Therefore with decent insolation highs are expected to warm into the lower and middle 70s this afternoon which is in line with mixing down temps from around 875MB. By Wednesday, a broad upper level trough will be moving over the central United States. This trough deepens and moves east over northeast Kansas throughout the afternoon and evening, bringing a small chance for precipitation Wednesday night.
Tonight we will begin seeing an increase in clouds across the Bluegrass region as a cold front approaches. While the cold front approaches by Wed it does stall out along the Ohio River until the upper level wave moves east out of the plains beyond the short term period. It will remain well above normal for Wed with temperatures topping out in the low to mid 80s.
A very weak ribbon of vorticity will rotate around the Canadian upper low across northern Minnesota tonight. Temperatures will return closer to normal with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s and lows in the low to mid 40s. Troughing over the eastern CONUS amplifies followed by a warming trend into the weekend.
648 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016 A cold front slowly moves into the area tonight and Wednesday before retreating.
Winds should then diminish and veer from the late evening into the overnight hours as the pressure gradient relaxes with the approach of the cold front, with the cold front near a central MO far southeast KS axis by 12z Tuesday. The chance of precipitation will increase some on Tuesday as the cold front continues to ooze southeastward. The cold front will push through the area Wednesday night will cooler air invading the region.
515 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016 Warm and breezy today ahead of an approaching cold front. Unsettled weather into late week will give way to much cooler temperatures for the weekend. Warm weather will remain through Wednesday despite a cold front approaching the region this evening and slowly crossing Wednesday.
Slightly Cooler With A Few More Clouds Today. Temperatures ranged from the lower 70s along and east of the Highway 65 corridor to the middle 70s across far southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. A cold frontal boundary is expected to drop into our region later today/overnight before stalling close to the I44 corridor as flow aloft becomes parallel. A low pressure will develop along the front out ahead of a short wave trough that should begin to amplify over Kansas.
Onshore flow will continue with a very low chance of coastal showers due to convergence near the trough axis this morning and again tonight. then a low chance of showers translating inland mainly along and south of SGJ-GNV this afternoon where convergence and low level moisture will coincide with daytime heating as the coastal trough breaks down and shifts westward. Temperatures will trend above climo values with max temps ranging from the lower 80s coast to upper 80s inland.
236 AM PDT Tue Oct 18 2016 Fair and a little warmer today as high pressure aloft begins to build.
257 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2016 A cold front was located from northern Missouri to southeast Kansas, to west-central oklahoma early this morning.
Subtropical Ridge eases off to the east as an upper level trough moves from the Great Basin to the High Plains. Isolated showers and afternoon thunderstorms are possible along the Highway 77 corridor due slightly deeper moisture there on Wednesday.
A cold front will move south through most of the area terminals this morning. /issued 306 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016/ An upper level trough currently entering the Pacific Northwest will move slowly east into the plains the next couple of days. This trough will push a dry cold front south to the eastern Permian Basin southwest to the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains by late this afternoon. This front is expected to dissipate tonight but another cold front will head south toward the central Permian Basin by late Wednesday afternoon.
Scattered showers have developed across the region in advance of an upper trough approaching the Oregon coast early this morning. Wednesday is dry and mostly clear as an upper ridge builds over the Pac NW. High temperatures will warm 4-8 degrees across southeast Oregon and the southwest ID mountains and 2-4 degrees in the lower valleys.
300 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016 Aloft - An ridge centered over the southern TX/LA line sprawled across most of the Gulf region while a short wave trough was east of the northern Bahamas. Surface - Atlantic high pressure ridged across the Deep South to the western Gulf Coast. Weak low pressure was east of the southern Bahamas. The upper ridge dominates most of the gulf region as the center moves to the AL/GA/FL border area while the short wave trough continues east of the Bahamas. The Atlantic high pressure remains pretty much anchored in place as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The low pressure drifts northward. The deep ridging across the region will be in control with northeasterly flow and model PWAT running in the 0.
Unseasonably warm weather continues on Wednesday, as a cold front approaches from the northwest, and low-level thickness ridge buckles up across the Mid-State in advance of the front. As a result, don't see any reason why highs on Wednesday shouldn't be as high as those today (and may even be a degree warmer along the Cumberland Plateau, where cu development is forecast to be less).
Low levels moisten after the cold front. Therefore, expect a dry cold frontal passage with possible sprinkles mainly north areas this morning, behind the front.
306 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016 An upper level trough currently entering the Pacific Northwest will move slowly east into the plains the next couple of days. This trough will push a dry cold front south to the eastern Permian Basin southwest to the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains by late this afternoon. This front is expected to dissipate tonight but another cold front will head south toward the central Permian Basin by late Wednesday afternoon.
Heights will rise slightly today as an upper ridge spreads across the Southeast. Temperatures across southern Indiana and central Kentucky as of this writing are about 5 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. However, a weakening cold front will advance, reaching the Ohio River early Wednesday morning. And even without records, the daytime hours will still be much warmer than normal.
226 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2016 The cold front moved through the panhandles overnight will knock highs down by about 20 degrees from yesterday's readings. Then another cold front will move through the region on Wednesday.
Temperatures this afternoon will be similar to a few degrees cooler than those observed yesterday, generally around 5 to 7 degrees below normal for the middle of October. The high res models are in good agreement that winds will begin to slowly subside between 16z and 18z, but remain breezy all day. Otherwise, upper level high pressure will begin to build over the region Wednesday.
When this system moves east of the divide, the threat of snow showers will increase, especially near and downwind (se) of the higher terrain.
Once this feature dissipates and clouds erode, it will be a fairly pleasant autumn day with high pressure sliding south of the area and winds mixing to a 10 to 20 mph pace. Otherwise, northern stream energy will drive a cold front southward toward the far northern CWA by 12z Wed. Temperatures will be somewhat uniform across the area with cooler low level temperatures north of Interstate 90 and a little more sunshine while to the south clouds will be thicker and not allow the area to take advantage of mixing potential. If clouds and rainfall can move in a few hours earlier then temperatures south of Interstate 90 will be 2-4 degrees cooler. The threat for precipitation will shift south Wednesday evening allowing cooler air to filter in from the north.
The front may actually retreat to the north temporarily Wednesday as a substantial longwave trof approaches from the Plains and the flow aloft swings to a more southwesterly direction.
Broad upper trough will remain over Montana today and Wednesday with weak upper level disturbances.
Much cooler! 850 mb temperatures are essentially cut in half from yesterday's record territory, with afternoon max temperatures in the lower 70s.
A cold front along the Canadian Border this morning will be pushing through the forecast area today. temperatures today will vary considerably from the mostly cloudy and behind the cold front areas of the north, to the South Dakota border counties where some sunshine will act to moderate the air.
314 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016 A warm front will lift northeast toward the area today followed by a cold front tonight.
321 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016 A cold front along the Canadian Border this morning will be pushing through the forecast area today. temperatures today will vary considerably from the mostly cloudy and behind the cold front areas of the north, to the South Dakota border counties where some sunshine will act to moderate the air.
622 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016 A warm front will lift northeast toward the area today followed by a cold front tonight.
340 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016 H5 analysis from earlier tonight had an elongated area of high pressure extending from Baja California east northeast into the southeastern CONUS. North of this high pressure, a broad area of low amplitude flow extended from California east into the central plains, then northeast into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front extended from the Texas panhandle northeast into far northwestern Missouri and central Iowa. For today: Much drier boundary layer air will be present across the region today as the before mentioned cold front continues to push south into the mid Mississippi valley.
Slightly cooler temperatures are expected today and particularly Wednesday.
148 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016 An upper-level ridge will build across the area through Wednesday.
The upper system should pass through late tonight as we transition to a drier pattern with upstream ridging building back into the PAC NW.
Upper level trough aloft will maintain a chance of showers tonight and Tuesday, though nothing impactful.
Deep layer ridging will prevail through Wednesday with dry weather expected. Temperatures will be above normal with afternoon highs expected to range from mid 80s to near 90 and overnight lows expected to be in the low to mid 60s.
1227 AM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016 The cold front has accelerated across the Roan and eastern Tavaputs Plateaus this afternoon. Very weak reflection of wave moving in with elevated moisture over the cold front may keep some isolated showers going over the central divide mountains but confidence low this occurs. This wave will also bring along a front and another shot of cooler air. A true fall like day moves in for Wednesday behind the system with temperatures ending up the lower side of normal.
Deep layer ridging will persist across the CWA today. With the ridging in place, high temperatures will climb well above normal into the upper 80s to lower 90s.
/issued 438 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016/ High pressure dominates across southeastern states into the mid- Atlantic, and extends into central Florida. While persistent northeasterly regional flow continues to bring patches of moisture and cloudiness into the region, Florida is on the subsident side of an upper level trough and subsidence continues to stifle regional shower activity. The axis of the upper trough is across the northwest Bahamas. The consensus of the global models indicates a mid to upper level ridge building across much of the southern CONUS into mid- week, with the upper trough across the Bahamas shifting eastward through this period. Later in the week the mid to upper level trough is forecast to continue slowly drifting eastward and could become a closed low.
Moisture transport in the low levels remains rather persistent across the lower MS valley into the central and lower TN valley tonight into Wednesday.
653 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016 A cold front will approach the area this evening and move through tonight.
457 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016 Upper ridging planted over the state will provide continued dry (precipitation-wise) and very warm conditions for southeastern Texas today.
312 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016 A cold front slowly moves into the area tonight and Wednesday before retreating.
Clearing skies and cold with sub freezing temperatures areawide.
359 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2016 The cold front continues to make good southward progress this morning and was located along a Muleshoe, Plainview, to Paducah line as of 330 am CDT. This should result in a pleasant day across the area with highs generally 15 degrees cooler than we saw yesterday. Southerly flow across the western South Plains should keep the normal areas from cratering as well but would not be surprised to see a few areas approach the upper 30s to lower 40s in some of the low-lying/cold air drainage areas. Jordan Dry cyclonic flow kicks off the extended realm before buckling back to upper ridging complete with above normal warmth for the weekend.
634 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016 An upper-level ridge will build across the area through Wednesday.
The shower activity will slowly decrease through the overnight hours into Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure moves over the region.
317 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016 Upper level ridge continues to remain in firm control over our region's weather this morning, and our max temps the last couple of days have really reflected this.
110 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016 Dry high pressure will build across the area through the middle of the week.
204 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016 Sunshine and near record warmth is expected today, before a cold front slips through the region tonight.
345 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016 Cold front was located near a line from KEMP-KPNC-KHBR per 08z sfc obs, with weakening pressure rises to the north over the past few hours. Overall progress of frontal boundary should remain limited over the next 48 hours, the net result today being high temps several degrees cooler across much of northeast OK and northwest AR, while areas to the south will once again see much above normal temperatures.
Lingering shower activity this morning will diminish into the afternoon as high pressure shifts over the west coast. Lingering shower activity across northwest California will diminish by the afternoon as the upper trough makes an eastward push. High pressure will move in behind the trough and set up over the west coast. A ribbon of moisture, however, will flow overtop the relatively flat ridge over the next few days and prolong minimal chances for precipitation just north of the Oregon border.
328 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2016 Brief Weather Overview: Cooler temperatures are expected today across much of the area with the exception being across southern Oklahoma and portions of western north Texas.
Slow moving front with a deepening low pressure located across the I90 corridor this afternoon, while mid level warm advection showers continue to migrate across the northern tier of the state. Winds will increase as the low deepens, with strong pressure rises in its wake. this will keep the flow from allowing any fog to form overnight as well, despite the cooler more humid conditions across much of the CWA. High pressure builds in from the west. Favorable westerly flow will result in breezy conditions for Tuesday but with cooler air aloft only anticipate highs in the low 60s, though that is still about 5F higher than average. Despite strong westerlies and a broad upper trof overhead, not much else going on in the short term.
A cold front will begin pushing south into SD, and lows will be in the 30s to lower 40s, warmer across south central SD. Under a cooler airmass following the cold front, highs will be only in the 40s and 50s. After midnight, predicting just a small area of precip over warmer south central SD, most of which should be rain with minimal snow accumulations.