Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Surface analysis places the Pittsburgh forecast area on the northwest periphery of an expansive area of high pressure centered across the Atlantic. In the mid- and upper-levels, an amplifying ridge axis currently bisects the Upper Ohio Valley. Despite nearly optimal conditions for radiational cooling, a short night and warm airmass in place will result in temperatures only cooling to the low 60s by sunrise, or about 5 degrees warmer than the climatological normals. Warm/hot weather and brilliant sunshine is expected for Sunday as a result of the amplifying ridge axis.
The westerly flow will buckle in response to an upper low offshore on Sunday, therefore winds on Sunday will be considerably less than today for all areas. It will be partly to mostly cloudy during the afternoon with in the 50s over the mountains and 60s to lower 70s in the lower elevations. Cooler than seasonable temperatures prevail then Sunday and Monday, approaching 10 degrees below their normals in spots.
Dewpoints in the upper 50s to around 60 will remain over the FA, but they will be pushed eastward by a cold front. the upper wave lifts northeast toward Hudson Bay allowing the upper ridge rebound. although temperatures will remain a little cooler to start the work week.
/issued 1006 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021/ Minimal forecast changes are needed this evening as the pesky and persistent upper low continues to churn nearly stationary just to our west over the Middle Red River Valley of northern Texas and southern Oklahoma. This low will maintain the necessary lift and forcing farther east across our region to generate additional showers and thunderstorms overnight and so did keep PoPs in the likely category over much of the region through daybreak Sunday. Now under greater influence from the upper-level wind regime, the low pressure is now moving north/northeast. This process will continue, eventually speeding up as ridging aloft near NE Mexico provides an extra boost.
355 AM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021 WV imagery shows the upper trough has now crossed the Red River into Oklahoma, leaving NW flow aloft over West texas and Southeast new Mexico.
This wave will lift northeast tonight and aid in southerly flow returning in the lower and mid levels. North of this front lows may sneak down into the lower 60s before southerly flow increase towards sunrise Monday morning. Monday will be another hot and slightly increasingly humid day with highs into the 90s and dew points maybe a little more into the lower 60s.
The upper level heights are forecast to continue to rise today, but mid level moisture will increase from the south as the H5 ridge axis sets up along the coast providing the southerly flow aloft. A Piedmont trough (weak) may be enough to focus scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and early evening. The pattern begins to breakdown some by late week into the weekend as the mid/upper ridge is suppressed some to the south as a series of mid/upper level s/w disturbances move across the northeast U.
SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): 500 mb high pressure will continue to build over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley from the southwest during the period. This pattern will not only ensure dry weather, but increasingly warmer temperatures, with values at above normal levels. Meanwhile, at the surface, an intensifying pressure gradient along the Lower Texas Coast will produce a windy onshore flow on Monday.
330 AM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021 A Pacific cold front moving through the nrn Rockies this morning should drift into wrn Nebraska this morning and become stationary across ncntl and the srn Panhandle this afternoon providing an excellent focus of thunderstorm development.
At this point confidence on timing for each terminal remains on the low side to include in the TAF. /issued 243 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021/ The closed upper low that has been a persistent feature over Texas for several days is making slow progress to the northeast and should be mostly over Oklahoma at sunrise Sunday with the center between Tulsa and Joplin at the end of the day tomorrow. Increasing heights and thicknesses should see an increase in high temperatures near 3 degrees warmer over those of this afternoon. The GFS continues to show a more amplified upper ridge late Sunday/early Monday which would inhibit most convective chances. The chance does still exist, however, for convection to develop just to our west and push into the FA under northwesterly flow late Sunday as a weakness moves across the upper ridge.
Thompson (This evening through Sunday) Pesky upper low, centered near the Red River of south central Oklahoma this afternoon will drift north tonight into the day Sunday.
134 AM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 High pressure will build aloft and to our southeast.
1127 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021 Cloud cover was increasing from the south this afternoon as moisture continues to stream northward ahead of an upper level low pressure system near the Arklatex. While there are no decent surface boundaries to focus precipitation, we expect to see an uptick in showers on Sunday as the upper low continues to drift northward into Oklahoma.
Dew points will be in the low to mid 60s each day making it feel a bit stickier than the past few days. With an abundance of moisture and a very weakly sheared environment south of the main upper-level ridge, expect updrafts to struggle and any showers/storms to quickly become outflow/cold pool dominant.
/issued 824 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021/ An upper level low pressure system continues to be located near the Red River Valley this evening. /issued 307 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021/ GOES-16 Satellite trends this afternoon place an upper level low over Northeast Texas. Regional WSR-88D radar trends indicate scattered to numerous showers with some embedded thunderstorms this afternoon over the Lower Mississippi Valley with the best coverage occurring south of I-40 over North Mississippi thus far. As of 2 PM CDT, temperatures across the Mid- South are in the lower to middle 80s across many locations.
An upper low continues to spin over North Texas, with ridging over the Southeast. High pressure off to the south and east has resulted in a fairly quiet day so far. Afternoon cu field has remained relatively subdued thanks to weak ridging and warm air in the mid levels of the atmosphere. Temperatures are already in the low to mid 80s for everyone, and should climb a couple of more degrees before the day is wrapped up. Overnight, a rather large upper level low over the southern Plains will slowly drift toward our region. With high pressure to southeast, this will set the stage for optimum moisture transport off the Gulf of Mexico. Mid week, the 500 mb low will get ejected and ridging will sit centered over the CONUS.
The upper level heights are forecast to continue to rise today, but mid level moisture will increase from the south as the H5 ridge axis sets up along the coast providing the southerly flow aloft. A Piedmont trough (weak) may be enough to focus scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and early evening.
This morning, water vapor imagery displays a closed low slowly moving north through OK toward KS and MO. This in combination with the enhanced lift provided by the upper level low will result in isolated to scattered storm chances this afternoon and evening (11 AM - 8 PM), mainly east of I-35 and south of I-70. At the end of the week, high pressure will move back into the region, diminishing storm chances. Stratus will gradually lift through the daylight hours towards the lower end of VFR.
134 AM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 [Through 06Z Monday] Dirty ridging aloft will continue to spread mid and high clouds over the region through late tonight. On Sunday and Monday, high pressure will be east of the region.
420 AM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through late week. Today: Aloft, riding will be centered just southeast of the forecast area, placing the region barely within the southwest flow between the ridge and an upper low over the south/central plains.
This was occurring as an upper level low over the plains continues to churn and slowly drift to the northeast.
A weak upper level anti-cyclone is over Arizona this morning, situated between the large closed low centered near the ArkLaTex region and another closed low southwest of Los Angeles. The long wave pattern will re-orient and become more amplified across the western CONUS with trough along the coast and a ridge over the central plains.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 69 82 69 85 / 60 50 70 50 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 68 82 68 84 / 70 40 70 40 70 Oak Ridge, TN 82 66 81 67 84 / 60 40 70 30 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 65 82 65 84 / 60 30 70 30 70.
Gusty south to southwest winds and decreasing temperatures can be expected today through the middle of the coming week as a low pressure system slowly moves inland from the Eastern Pacific.
230 AM MDT Sun Jun 6 2021 A cold front has moved through the entire area, pushed along by an upper trough moving across the state. All of this will lead to a cooler and drier day. Northwest winds will be a little gusty this morning (especially over southeast Montana) behind the cold front. Monday will be dry with slightly warmer temperatures, under a dry southwest flow aloft.
Much richer moisture, evidenced by surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s just south of IL this evening, will make steady progress overnight into Sunday morning aided by southerly flow between high pressure in the Southeast and low pressure in the Southwest. 18z surface map placed high pressure off the east coast with ridging back west into the southern Plains. A trof of low pressure extended from the Canadian Prairies down the lee side of the Rockies. Aloft, upper air data showed low amplitude ridging over the central conus, with a cutoff mid level circulation in northern TX. This, combined with weak large scale ascent of the closed low crossing the eastern Plains, leads to isolated to scattered showers and storms from the south. Upper air pattern features amplifying ridging across the central conus through the week.
With a slight increase in low level moisture and a decrease in wind speeds as compared to today, conditions will feel noticeably warmer and a bit more humid on Sunday. MLCAPES will climb into the 1000-1500 J/kg range as the low level moisture quality improves, but very weak flow over the area should preclude any severe weather. The upper low opens as it continues to slowly drift towards the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes.
Thunderstorms are likely to form over the higher terrain but a lack of shear and instablilty will hamper severe weather. An upper lvl ridge will build in over the plains Tue bringing hot temperatures into the area. A strong upper lvl low will move into the Pacific NW causing the upper lvl ridge to tilt into a negative orientation by Thu/Fri. As a result of extended upper lvl ridging portions of the region will stay hot and dry throughout this week.
1114 PM EDT Sat Jun 5 2021 High pressure will build aloft and to our southeast.
1216 AM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Slow moving upper level low over eastern Texas will continue to bring periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms to the terminals through the period. Overall, a slow moving cut-off low is progged to lift slowly over AR from TX. This process will be slow, being cut-off from the main flow, with the upper low only reaching MO by Monday afternoon in advance of an approaching trough. On Sunday, PoPs will increase as the low moves over the state and combines with daytime heating.
400 AM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 High pressure will continue offshore through most of the upcoming week producing warm humid weather with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A cold front approaches the area late in the week. Weak upper level ridging will persist across eastern NC today, but despite this, precipitable water values of around 2 inches coupled with an afternoon sea breeze will lead to the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
An upper level ridge axis will shift east from Arizona today into New Mexico, bringing drier and warmer temperatures with it. Expect more warming/drying Monday as the upper level ridge axis moves slowly eastward across the state.
A weak upper level low will move across the southern plains through tonight. The upper level low will be located across eastern Kansas by Monday, with weak northwest flow at mid and upper levels across the southern high plains.
650 AM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021 (Today and tonight) Early this morning, the center of the broad upper low was spinning over north-central Texas. A weak impulse rotating around the low was combining with some elevated instability to generate scattered showers and a few thunderstorms generally along and west of a Sweetwater to Ballinger to Junction line.
Surface analysis places the Pittsburgh forecast area on the northwest periphery of an expansive area of high pressure centered across the Atlantic. In the mid- and upper-levels, an amplifying ridge axis currently bisects the Upper Ohio Valley. Warm/hot weather and brilliant sunshine is expected for Sunday as a result of the amplifying ridge axis.
Upper ridging will extend into the Northern High Plains for the next couple of days with a warming trend in temperatures expected.
713 AM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 High pressure will build aloft and to our southeast.
613 AM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 High pressure will build aloft and to our southeast.
It may not be quite as warm as yesterday, but high temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s are expected across the area, warmest over the lower elevations. Monday will be very similar, and maybe a few degrees, warmer with a better chance for showers and thunderstorms north of I-80 as a weak disturbance lifts northeast across the Front Range through the afternoon.
/issued 305 AM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): 500 mb high pressure will continue to build over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley from the southwest during the period. This pattern will not only ensure dry weather, but increasingly warmer temperatures, with values at above normal levels. Meanwhile, at the surface, an intensifying pressure gradient along the Lower Texas Coast will produce a windy onshore flow on Monday.
959 AM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Strong Bermuda high pressure dominates the weather pattern through middle of the week. A cold front will approach from the north late in the week.
An area of low pressure and associated cold front will pass through the region today, bringing a noticeable wind shift to this CWA. Temperatures behind the front will be 15 to 20 degrees cooler than yesterday, with highs in the low to mid 80s. The cooler temperatures will be felt mainly along and west of the Missouri River valley. Eastern SD and western MN will still see hot temperatures today with highs reaching the low to mid 90s. On Monday, an area of low pressure will develop over western South Dakota with a warm front lifting northward into North Dakota.
425 AM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021 An area of low pressure and associated cold front will pass through the region today, bringing a noticeable wind shift to this CWA. Temperatures behind the front will be 15 to 20 degrees cooler than yesterday, with highs in the low to mid 80s. The cooler temperatures will be felt mainly along and west of the Missouri River valley. Eastern SD and western MN will still see hot temperatures today with highs reaching the low to mid 90s. On Monday, an area of low pressure will develop over western South Dakota with a warm front lifting northward into North Dakota.
Water vapor imagery shows an upper level low centered north of the Dallas Fort Worth area. Clouds were slowly spreading northward ahead of this upper level low across northern Missouri. The GFS is running 4 to 5 degrees cooler than other models with higher dewpoints. The 500 MB low over north Texas is forecast to slowly lift northward into eastern Kansas and Oklahoma and push the main 200 mb flow farther north across the northern tier of the CONUS with our area slowly coming under the influence of vorticity maxima rotating around the upper level low.
With high pressure aloft, and a Bermuda high continuing at the surface, the weather pattern should be similar to yesterday. With high pressure at 500mb and a Bermuda high at the surface, the pattern hasn't changed much since yesterday, with the exception of a slightly strong wind, which should keep the east coast metro area dry once again. Mid to upper ridging will remain prominent across the region as South Florida remains under the western periphery of Atlantic subtropical high pressure. Highs will range from the upper 80s in the east to the lower (or perhaps even mid) 90s for western inland areas.
528 AM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 High pressure will build aloft and to our southeast.
We should see more coverage in convection for today and tomorrow as the upper low continues to meander around the area. The upper low will shift out of the region by mid week, and the result will be NW flow in the mid levels over the region later in the week.
650 AM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Strong Bermuda high pressure dominates the weather pattern through middle of the week. A cold front will approach from the north late in the week. Bermuda high pressure establishes itself off the Southeast coast today leading to continued southerly flow/hot conditions and increasing humidity. Temperatures will climb into the lower 90s away from the waters this afternoon. Slightly cooler at the beaches (80s) due to local sea breezes.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 69 83 69 83 / 60 50 80 50 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 69 83 68 83 / 70 40 80 50 70 Oak Ridge, TN 82 68 83 67 83 / 60 40 80 50 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 67 83 65 83 / 60 30 80 60 70.
549 AM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 High pressure will build aloft and to our southeast.
1053 AM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through late week. Today: Aloft, weak ridging will persist over the Southeast while a closed low positioned over the South Central United States gradually shifts north and begins to weaken. At the sfc, the area will remain positioned along the western periphery of Atlantic high pressure. Further south, some breaks in cloud cover should support warmer temps, with highs generally ranging in the upper 80s to lower 90s (warmest across interior Georgia). Look for lows mainly in the low 70s A typical summertime pattern on tap for early to mid week with Atlantic high pressure remaining the dominant surface feature.
Dry conditions are expected to end for all of central Indiana over the course of today as the high pressure induced subsidence influencing the dry weather will be pushed eastward over the Atlantic. With the more significant lift still well south of the region within the upper level low, any convection or showers will remain scattered this afternoon and evening, and should weaken, and/or die out prior to 04Z tonight. Similar weather is expected tomorrow, with slightly more coverage as the upper level low nears central Indiana. High temperatures are currently projected to be in the low to mid 80s for Monday.
/issued 355 AM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021/ WV imagery shows the upper trough has now crossed the Red River into Oklahoma, leaving NW flow aloft over West texas and Southeast new Mexico.
719 AM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Building high pressure over the eastern CONUS will bring very warm to hot conditions to the North Country today and Monday with an isolated afternoon shower or storm possible.
643 AM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021 A Pacific cold front moving through the nrn Rockies this morning should drift into wrn Nebraska this morning and become stationary across ncntl and the srn Panhandle this afternoon providing an excellent focus of thunderstorm development.
637 AM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021 A relatively unorganized mid and upper low pressure system is plodding through the ArkLaTex. That said, there looks to be enough instability and forcing from the low pressure system to the south to kick off some isolated shower or thunderstorms during the afternoon.
While ridging reigns across the area with a sharp upper level ridge rising northeastwards across Florida, this mornings sounding indicated any subsidence inversions are not robust enough to generate any inhibition. Short Term Update - Large scale ridging will continue to dominate the area through the afternoon. Ridging extending from the Atlantic to the Gulf Coast will maintain moderate to fresh breezes across Keys waters through the afternoon.
Closed upper low over the Red River Valley in southern Oklahoma slowly moving north and east and will move into eastern Oklahoma later today. An upper ridge over the Four Corners region and central Rockies will allow for a more north northwest or northwesterly upper flow across the Panhandles today.
403 AM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021 A weak upper level low will move across the southern plains through tonight. The upper level low will be located across eastern Kansas by Monday, with weak northwest flow at mid and upper levels across the southern high plains.
552 AM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Early this morning, a modestly amplified upper RIDGE prevailed over the central CONUS. At the surface, an area of high pressure was centered over the southeastern CONUS with an open flow from the Gulf of Mexico into our region. The upper RIDGE is expected to amplify concurrently as the mostly cutoff storm system over OK drifts more northeastward towards MO during this period.
/DL/ Today and tonight: Another rainy day is on tap for the region, and it is perhaps the day with the highest "washout" potential out of the recent days. As a cutoff upper low over northeast Texas begins to lift toward the Missouri Valley over the next 24 hours, a mid level impulse will pivot across the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Confidence is high in regards to min RH in the low teens to single digits, however can't say the same for the winds. Even though wind guidance has not varied much the last few runs, discrepancies in the longwave trough's strength, position, and progression exist in the ensemble data, including the WPC clusters.
737 AM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through late week. Today: Aloft, riding will be centered just southeast of the forecast area, placing the region barely within the southwest flow between the ridge and an upper low over the south/central plains.
Well above average temperature and dry weather is expected today under the influence of high pressure centered along the Atlantic coastline. Weak moist advection aloft around the periphery of the high and diurnal heating may create a few aftn cu and patchy mid- level clouds, otherwise expect abundant sunshine. Moist advection will deepen tonight within strengthening SW aloft as the region becomes wedged between a Central Plains upper low and the east coast ridge.
A very slow moving cut-off low over Texas will struggle to progress eastward again today due to its proximity to an upper level ridge over the Great Lakes. The trough axis over Texas will shift slightly eastward today bringing the biggest concentration of lift and combined moisture from I-55 to the east. temperatures could slip into the lower and middle 80s in far western areas by late afternoon as shower and thunderstorm activity begins to push off to the east.
401 AM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Today and tonight: Another rainy day is on tap for the region, and it is perhaps the day with the highest "washout" potential out of the recent days. As a cutoff upper low over northeast Texas begins to lift toward the Missouri Valley over the next 24 hours, a mid level impulse will pivot across the Lower Mississippi Valley.
704 AM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 High pressure will continue offshore through most of the upcoming week producing warm humid weather with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A cold front approaches the area late in the week. Weak upper level ridging will persist across eastern NC today, but despite this, precipitable water values of around 2 inches coupled with an afternoon sea breeze will lead to the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms.