Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Scattered snow showers continue this evening with strong, cold NW'ly flow behind an arctic cold front. Continued gusty winds overnight in the higher elevations will drop wind chills below zero, prompting a Wind Chill Advisory for eastern Tucker County where values below -10F are forecast. Snow will continue tapering off this evening, with lingering lake effect snow north of I-80 and upslope snow across the ridges and higher elevations. Dry conditions resume Thursday under building high pressure with forecast highs around 10 degrees below normal on average.
The few remaining late afternoon flurries across southwest Lower Michigan into north central Indiana will come to an end this evening as upstream ridge edges eastward into long axis of Lake Michigan. Clearing skies and diminishing wind to provide good longwave outgoing radiation, however northwest CWA may begin to provide some mixing with south winds upwards of 10 mph towards daybreak as ridge moves into Lower Great Lakes to Tennessee Valley.
Southwesterly flow will continue ahead of a trough (the axis of which will cross our forecast area by around mid-day Thursday). Outside of the cloud cover, this trough remains pretty dry with no precipitation expected through the weekend keeping the short term tranquil. With the high pressure settled in over the last couple days, inversions have remained in most valleys across the western slopes keeping temperatures cool. Temperatures continue to slowly increase through the weekend with near normal conditions expected in the lower elevations the next couple days.
Modified arctic airmass over the dvn cwa with high pressure ridge bringing mostly sunny but cold day. Tonight: High pressure slips off to our east with warm air advection kicking in on the return flow. Thursday: Much warmer day with plenty of sunshine and a rather light southwest wind.
High pressure was drifting east over the area, and with the snow cover, will cause another night of cold low temperatures on Thursday morning. On Thursday, southerly winds will begin to bring warmer air into the regions, causing melting of some of the snow. Through the day today, moisture channel imagery displayed the upper level ridge axis over the western states, beginning to advect slowly to the east, with continued northwest upper flow over the IL region. Surface observations show the low level high pressure ridge drifting into IL, and the surface winds shifting gradually from northwest and west, to the south. Southerly winds will cause significant snow melt on on Thursday as the upper ridge moves into the midwest.
515 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2019 Tonight through Thursday night: High pressure will maintain clear skies, light wind, and seasonably cold conditions through the near term. Tonight will feature ideal nocturnal cooling conditions and have followed a colder blend of guidance with a few locations over north central Mississippi getting into the lower 20s, with mid to upper 20s common elsewhere.
More widespread rainfall is likely this weekend as a cold front moves across the region. Isolated to scattered showers continue to push inland over the region this afternoon as an upper level trough shifts eastward away from the region. As the trough exits, rain showers should diminish in coverage by this evening with mostly dry conditions developing over the region tonight. A few showers may linger over areas north of the Golden Gate from tonight into Thursday as a weak warm front lifts northward across the region.
The presences of those clouds however had made for slightly cooler temperatures, with mid/upper 30s in those places at noon. Other locations warmed into the lower 40s. Weak upper ridging moving eastward from the High Plains will help move troughing present along the east coast further off shore. While this occurs, an area of low pressure will develop over the northern Gulf coast during the weekend, then head eastward. This low when first noted a few days ago had a "tropical" look to it.
/22/ Tonight through Thursday night: High pressure will maintain clear skies, light wind, and seasonably cold conditions through the near term. Tonight will feature ideal nocturnal cooling conditions and have followed a colder blend of guidance with a few locations over north central Mississippi getting into the lower 20s, with mid to upper 20s common elsewhere.
Updated at 245 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2019 The low level clouds that have lingered for much of the day are beginning to erode over southern IN and southeastern KY. Aloft, the NW flow will begin to flatten out as an upper level ridge approaches from over the Plains. Then tomorrow, temperatures will begin to warm back up to near normals as southerly flow on the backside of the high pressure combined with plenty of sunshine push highs into the 40s. Dry conditions are expected to persist through Christmas as dry NW flow and then progressive upper ridging dominate our pattern through the end of the work week.
Will see more high clouds on Thursday with temperatures slightly warmer than seen Today as the southerly low level flow becomes a little more pronounced.
Highs for Thursday should range from the upper 30s where snowcover remains to the lower to mid 40s elsewhere.
/issued 221 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2019/ Upper level ridging will move into the central CONUS today with southwesterly surface flow as the next UL trough begins to approach tomorrow afternoon, we will see an increase in the surface gradient which, in turn, will allow the surface winds to increase to mildly breezy conditions through Thursday.
/Issued 224 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2019/ Weak high pressure over the area today and tomorrow will give way to near to slightly above normal temperatures. While temps will be similar to today, as noted before, there could be a wind chill factor in the afternoon making it feel cooler.
522 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2019 Only concerns over the next few days is the potential for fog as warmer air advects over the region's snow cover. There is some potential for this tonight, but dewpoints still look too low to yield the high humidity values, even with the snow cover. For the rest of the forecast, warmer and drier weather will prevail.
A warmer day is expected on Thursday as 925H temps warm closer to 0C.
Upper level analysis shows a ridge over the high plains, with a trough along the west coast.
There is a short wave that will track across our region through the upper ridge tonight into Thursday.
Starting to see some fog develop in southern IL and western KY despite the very dry air in place behind the cold front. Updated at 245 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2019 The low level clouds that have lingered for much of the day are beginning to erode over southern IN and southeastern KY. Aloft, the NW flow will begin to flatten out as an upper level ridge approaches from over the Plains. Then tomorrow, temperatures will begin to warm back up to near normals as southerly flow on the backside of the high pressure combined with plenty of sunshine push highs into the 40s. Dry conditions are expected to persist through Christmas as dry NW flow and then progressive upper ridging dominate our pattern through the end of the work week.
Deep cyclonic flow supporting lake effect clouds and embedded flurries/snow showers is in the early stages of eroding from the top down as water vapor imagery indicates ridging just beginning to work into the Great Lakes region.
A Pacific warm front will spread snow over our CWA Thursday and Thursday night. Light snow may slicken roads in the Lower Treasure Valley during the morning commuting period but should turn to slush before noon. There is a slight chance of freezing rain in northern Malheur County Thursday night.
301 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2019 Only concerns over the next few days is the potential for fog as warmer air advects over the region's snow cover. There is some potential for this tonight, but dewpoints still look too low to yield the high humidity values, even with the snow cover. For the rest of the forecast, warmer and drier weather will prevail.
/issued 231 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2019/ High pressure will remain over the Mid-South tonight and will begin to shift east on Thursday.
As a warm front continues to slowly push east across central North Dakota, afternoon temperatures have risen into the upper 30s and lower 40s across much of the west and central. As an upper level ridge axis moves across the state overnight, winds will calm. Much of the high resolution guidance is showing an area of stratus taking hold along the Missouri Coteau and areas east by the early afternoon hours.
803 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2019 A secondary cold front approaching from the eastern Great Lakes will cross the Mid Atlantic tonight. High pressure will follow through the end of the week and into the weekend. A cold front continues to push through the region this evening as strong northwesterly flow/cold air advection continues to be the primary weather feature. This is reflective in low temperatures tonight; with teens common, single digits across the ridges, and only lower 20s in the urban centers (DC/Balt City).
658 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2019 A slow moving cold front has brought cloud conditions to South Florida, with widespread IFR/MVFR cigs. /issued Issued by National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX/ A cold front will continue to move southward across the region through late this afternoon. It will be chilly tonight, with lows ranging from near 50 in northwest Glades county to the lower 60s in the metro areas along the eastern coast of south Florida. Breezy conditions behind the cold front will continue Thursday night with a chance of rain showers mainly across the eastern area.
527 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2019 Warmer above normal temperatures will prevail this period as upper level ridge builds over the central plains.
Low temps this morning will bottom out at or below freezing across all of north and central GA with highs getting up into the 40s 50s.
Should see a lot more of the sun today with northwest flow aloft ahead of an upper ridge over the Plains.
249 AM EST Thu Dec 19 2019 Updated at 245 AM EST Thu Dec 19 2019 Today, the region is going to remain in front of an upper ridge that is currently over the Plains. At the surface, high pressure continues to pass southeast through southern Indiana. Other that that, the day will remain sunny and cool with high temperatures in the low 40s near the Tennessee border. Tonight, skies remain clear as the axis of the upper ridge works its way over southern Indiana and central Kentucky.
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX 300 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2019 Upper level low over northwest Arizona will slide east- southeast into NM, today.
/issued 949 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2019/ High pressure overhead yielding clear skies and calm winds. Winds will gradually take on a more eastward component on Thursday as the center of the high begins to shift to the east.
Building upper level ridge will result in dry weather and a warming trend through the rest of the period.
A weak upper-level trough is expected to progress eastward over the Central High Plains through Thursday which will bring some scattered high clouds but no precipitation to the Tri- State area. High temperatures will range from the mid 40s to the mid 50s with the warmer temperatures generally farther east into central Kansas. As the weak upper-level ridge progresses eastward, a weak upper-level ridge will take hold over the Mountain West through this weekend. Light and variable winds are expected overnight Thursday with temperatures dropping into the low 20s.
This is due to a strong push of drier air and building high pressure. Building upper level ridge will result in dry weather and a warming trend through the rest of the period.
Initially our attention turns to the upstream long wave trough currently approaching the Rockies. Fairly decent lift ahead of this feature will reach the MO River by 00z but a very dry airmass will result in little more than increasing high cloudiness and a weak warm front developing along the IA/MN border.
215 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2019 After a cold start, with temperatures from the mid teens in the north, to the lower 20s in the south, we should see ample sunshine in the forecast today.
For today, a ridge aloft will track across the region, with plenty of high clouds associated with it.
1120 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2019 Only concerns over the next few days is the potential for fog as warmer air advects over the region's snow cover. There is some potential for this tonight, but dewpoints still look too low to yield the high humidity values, even with the snow cover. For the rest of the forecast, warmer and drier weather will prevail.
949 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2019 High pressure overhead yielding clear skies and calm winds. Winds will gradually take on a more eastward component on Thursday as the center of the high begins to shift to the east.
1141 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2019 Warmer above normal temperatures will prevail this period as upper level ridge builds over the central plains.
302 AM EST Thu Dec 19 2019 While the day will start out chilly, warmer temperatures will start to arrive today with highs reaching to near normal levels in the low to mid 30s. Even warmer air will arrive with highs generally in the 40s through Christmas with no precipitation in sight. Very cold start in some areas this morning with a few locations dipping into the lower single digits. Temperatures will rebound nicely back into the 30s this afternoon as cold pool is quickly shoved east as increasing 925/850 mb jet pumps in the start of warmer air in advance of weakening northern stream wave.
An upper level ridge axis just off to the west will move through today with milder temperatures.
257 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2019 Freezing temperatures will continue through this morning. A weak boundary will move toward the area Thursday night as an upper level low shifts east across north Texas.
248 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2019 Upper ridge moving across the region today will keep weather quiet, with cloud cover limited to occasional high clouds as moisture quite limited below 20kft.
1052 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2019 High pressure will continue to dominate the local weather. However, as high pressure moves eastward, winds will shift easterly early Thursday morning. Made some adjustments to the lows for tonight, but was conservative, varying only a few degrees in some regions.
1038 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2019 A cold front passed south through the Keys early this afternoon, and it has now turned up nearly stationary across Cuba and the southern Bahamas. However, the cooler air over the Keys is quite shallow, with the 00z KEY sounding showing the base of a frontal inversion at only about 2,000 feet.
220 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2019 08Z water vapor imagery showed an upper low moving towards the four corners region with a closed upper low over the Gulf of Alaska. At the surface, a trough of low pressure extened from the norther plains south into the southern high plains while weak surface ridging remained along the TX gulf coast. The upper trough to the west is expected to approach the area with very limited moisture available. With the snow on the ground expected to limit mixing once again and some increasing clouds, think highs today will only be a few degrees warmer than yesterday in spite of the southerly return flow pattern advecting warm air north.
1158 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2019 Updated for 06Z aviation discussion 06Z TAF discussion: High pressure continues. Winds have diminished and temperatures were in the lower to mid 30s across the area.
145 AM MST Thu Dec 19 2019 Upper air analysis shows strong upper trough pivoting through the SW US as ridging slides east. At the surface, a weak trough will move through the area today resulting in winds shifting out of the northwest by late morning as slightly cooler air filters into the region. Split flow will prevail over the next few days as northern stream trough lifts northward and a cutoff low develops across the southern Plains.
This upper low will track along the northern Gulf Coast through the weekend.
and light freezing drizzle and/or flurries across w cntrl MN early Friday morning. an upper ridge moves across the region and brings dry weather. A dry, warm layer will set up the potential for freezing drizzle across portions of west central MN. The High Res ensembles have a decent handle on timing as does the nested NAM, generally moving across far southeastern zones in the 10Z to 18Z timeframe. Only moderate confidence on ice potential so comfortable with flurries or freezing drizzle, but leaning toward FZDZ as the most likely scenario based on soundings from Wadena down through Elbow Lake.
Updated at 245 AM EST Thu Dec 19 2019 Today, the region is going to remain in front of an upper ridge that is currently over the Plains. At the surface, high pressure continues to pass southeast through southern Indiana. Other that that, the day will remain sunny and cool with high temperatures in the low 40s near the Tennessee border. Tonight, skies remain clear as the axis of the upper ridge works its way over southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Ridging at the surface and aloft will get that switch going in full swing by Friday. A broad upper low will move from the southern Plains to the Gulf Coast states this weekend.
409 AM MST Thu Dec 19 2019 A closed midlevel low pressure is currently tracking over the AZ/UT state line and is forecasted to keep progressing eastward over the Four Corners today. The guidance continues to struggle with the high valley inversions therefore had to lower highs substantially in those spots. Tomorrow the closed low pressure lifts out over the southern plains and an upper ridge builds over the region causing the 700 mb temperatures to warm by 5- 10 degrees. This will be reflected in the highs with the exception of the high snow covered valleys that will most likely still be trapped under inversions.
Upper ridge axis has shifted east of our CWA into western Nebraska with a trough of low pressure approaching from the west and northwest. With ridge axis moving east today. Upper trough passes through Friday evening with winds easing overnight.
Low level moisture is lacking with clouds well above the ridges and no precipitation is expected. There will be a tendency for more westerly low level winds across the Cheyenne Ridge today, rotating around to northerly flow across much of eastern Colorado. The exception might be in the mountain parks where the wind induced mixing should bring some warmer air to the surface. While the low lying areas will get good cooling again, they should be warmer than this morning as a result of the mixing that occurred during the day. After cool post- frontal temperatures on the plains Friday, southerly surface flow develops in weak lee-trough and warming trend for the weekend.
Should see a lot more of the sun today with northwest flow aloft ahead of an upper ridge over the Plains. Upper ridge will continue moving east, and the ridge axis will be overhead Thursday evening into early Friday morning. A strong upper low will develop in the southern Plains and follow the ridge early Friday. Models have the upper trough closing off into a pretty strong low and dives southeastward towards the Gulf Coast.
Aloft, upper level ridging is currently situated over the central CONUS providing large scale subsidence across the region. At the surface, an elongated area of high pressure is located over portions of the OH and TN valley regions. Lows tonight will be milder with readings mainly in the lower 30s. As this trough approaches, an increase in cloud cover can be expected statewide as moisture aloft returns to the region. High temperatures on Friday will be several degrees cooler than what is expected today due to added cloud coverage.
A trough axis currently over Las Vegas, NV will close off over northern New Mexico tonight and track overhead during the day on Friday. Another notable increase in high level cloud cover will occur tonight as well from this closed low. A dry cold front will then move through Friday morning and will keep temperatures around seasonal averages for another day.
A low pressure system will develop in the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Another dry and cool day is in store for the region as high pressure settles overhead.
355 AM MST Thu Dec 19 2019 Upper air analysis shows strong upper trough pivoting through the SW US as ridging slides east. At the surface, a weak trough will move through the area today resulting in winds shifting out of the northwest by late morning as slightly cooler air filters into the region. Split flow will prevail over the next few days as northern stream trough lifts northward and a cutoff low develops across the southern Plains. Further upstream, a trough will slowly dig off the southern California coast resulting in large-scale ridging over the west-central US Friday through the weekend.
Upper air analysis last evening showed a ridge over the Great Plains and a trough along the west coast. This will bring warmer, moister air into the region. Highs today will only warm slightly from yesterday, but low temperatures Friday will be around 15 degrees warmer than today.
The heaviest snow accumulations are expected across the higher elevations of Baker County, and Lower Treasure Valley in Oregon, and the West Central Mountains and the Upper Weiser River area in Idaho.
Flow turns southwest into the weekend with upper trof digging off the west coast. Will still have some lingering cold in the valleys but winds will be increasing across the ridge tops on Friday with the jet increasing across the Rockies.
Low temps this morning will bottom out at or below freezing across all of north and central GA with highs getting up into the 40s 50s. Lows tonight will again be at or below freezing across the entire county warning area with highs rebounding a bit Friday into the 50s to near 60. 01 Models in better agreement on handling the lower MS Valley upper low.
Highs should reach mid to upper 60s north of Orlando to the lower 70s along the Treasure Coast.
454 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2019 Conditions will remain cool and dry today as a large area of high pressure sits over the southeastern states. Temperatures will only rebound into the lower and middle 50's today with sunny skies today. Another cool and dry night tonight with temperatures dropping into 30s interior areas to the low 40's in coastal areas as high pressure remains in place. High pressure will slide eastward Friday bringing a weak return flow alongside a weak disturbance over the northern Gulf.
A weak upper-level trough is expected to progress eastward over the Central High Plains through Thursday which will bring some scattered high clouds but no precipitation to the Tri- State area. High temperatures will range from the mid 40s to the mid 50s with the warmer temperatures generally farther east into central Kansas. As the weak upper-level ridge progresses eastward, a weak upper-level ridge will take hold over the Mountain West through this weekend. Light and variable winds are expected overnight Thursday with temperatures dropping into the low 20s. Clear skies will continue as overnight lows drop into the low 20s.
Freezing temperatures will continue through this morning. A weak boundary will move toward the area Thursday night as an upper level low shifts east across north Texas. Even with the cold frontal passage, temperatures will continue to warm Friday into the 60s. Moisture will linger Friday night as the upper level low moves south over east Texas.
536 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2019 Updated for 12Z aviation discussion 12Z TAF discussion: High pressure continues. Overnight lows tonight will only drop into the lower 30s in the west under the more expansive cloud cover.
For this reason decided to trend with cooler guidance in area where snowpack was still prevalent. Overnight temperatures will remain cold, however unlike the past few nights where there has been clear skies and calm winds, tonight looks to be partly cloudy with a light northwest wind and should help keep temperatures a little warmer.