Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT THROUGH NORTH TEXAS AROUND 15Z BRING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH AND THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY FRIDAY. /ISSUED 238 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/ A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY AND WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS. /ISSUED 219 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/ SOUTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING BETWEEN 5 TO 10 MPH ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR THROUGH LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WHILE POINTS NORTH OF THE FRONT TO LINGER IN THE MID 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR TO AROUND 50 ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS.
432 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US WILL GET UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ENTRAINED INTO IT THANKS TO A TROUGH OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST PUSHING ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH THE RIDGE AXIS WILL FLATTEN BY LATE FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH UPSTREAM REACHES THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
BACK DOOR COLD AIR OVER THE FALLON COUNTY VICINITY MAY EVEN RESULT IN SOME BRIEF FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING NEAR BAKER. LATEST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING COOLER EAST WINDS PUSHING WEST OF BILLINGS. THIS WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY FOR ALL BUT THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. SFC TROF SHOULD PUSH EAST AND OFF THE FOOTHILLS FRIDAY NIGHT AS PCPN TAPERS OFF. ONLY OTHER POTENTIAL ISSUE IS FOG AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR OUR EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WE TAP INTO THE LOW LEVEL COLDER AIR AND MOISTURE BEHIND BACKDOORING FRONT. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH SATURATION WITH TEMPS WARMER THAN -10C TO SUPPORT SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE.
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF TODAY BEFORE RETURNING WITH A FRIDAY COLD FRONT. WITH THE UPR TROF SHIFTING E. ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPD N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVY CONTINUES. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE LT TODAY/TONIGHT SHOULD BRING CLRG SKIES. THIS WAVE IS EXPD TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT LT FRI. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER UPR TROFG AND LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT FRI NGT AND SAT. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SUN SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER.
A weak cold front will push through the northern terminals during the day and result in a northwest winds around 10kts. /issued 312 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/ An upper level trough is over the eastern conus with an upper level ridge over the western conus. A cold front will move into the area today resulting in slightly cooler temperatures from yesterday.
416 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016 NORTH WINDS WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS TODAY.
WE WILL PROBABLY SEE AT LEAST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND BRING LIGHT RAIN TO MOST WEST SIDE LOCATIONS AS IT MOVES INLAND FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH (ABOVE 8000 FEET MOST OF THE DAY), SO IT WILL BE RAIN EXCEPT AT THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID 60S UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
246 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016 ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA. /ISSUED 328 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK COLD FRONT LIES DRAPED ACROSS THE DFW METRO AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT THROUGH NORTH TEXAS AROUND 15Z BRING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH AND THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY FRIDAY. /ISSUED 238 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/ A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY AND WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER.
/ISSUED 355 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/ Cold front currently passing through the area which will push temps nearer seasonal normals. Near persistent conditions continue on Friday ahead of a stronger cold front which will pass through the area on Friday.
Temperatures will be much cooler today in the wake of the front, except perhaps in parts of far southeast Oklahoma. /ISSUED 355 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/ Cold front currently passing through the area which will push temps nearer seasonal normals. Near persistent conditions continue on Friday ahead of a stronger cold front which will pass through the area on Friday.
500MB RIDGE REMAINS ALIGNED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY.
530 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016 A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS USHERED IN STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA. SOME LIGHT FOG INDICATED AT THEDFORD AND PINE RIDGE AS OF 08Z. THERE COULD BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SOUNDING PROFILES FAVOR SOME CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND WILL FORCE A FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TO NEAR 40 OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWEST. BUT INTO THE OVERNIGHT SOUNDINGS FAVOR MORE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SNOW.
146 PM PDT FRI MAR 18 2016 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
132 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW.
250 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 Scattered thunderstorms continue across far Southeast Oklahoma ahead of strong cold front. Temperatures will likely fall below freezing across much of Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas by Saturday morning and therefore the freeze watch has been upgraded to a freeze warning.
202 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 WARM FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS DEEP E TX AND CENTRAL LA TO CONTINUE MOVING N INTO N LA AND NE TX THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO BRING DRIER AIR AND THE END OF PRECIPITATION FROM W TO E WITH A DRY AND PLEASANT WEEKEND ON TAP.
WARM AND DRY WEEKEND ON TAP FOR THE AREA BEFORE COOLER.
318 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
327 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 PRESSURE FALLS INDICATED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING A DEVELOPING AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH AXIS. CYCLONIC 850 MB FLOW IS QUITE ACTIVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL AR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR MANY AREAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO REMAIN AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS DOWN WITHIN THE POST FRONTAL SECTOR. ON THE COLD SIDE FOR MID MARCH WITH HIGHS ONLY INTO THE LOWER 50S. UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL GET EVEN CLOSER SAT NT. FREEZING LEVELS DO NOT DEFINITIVELY DROP BELOW 800 FT AGL AND THICKNESS PROFILES LACK VERTICAL AMPLIFICATION. LOWS WILL BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLATEAU.
200 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 DRY CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO FAR NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN HAD ENDED AS THE LOWER LAYERS HAD MIXED OUT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME EAST TONIGHT AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
This clearing line will be the determning factor of what locations fall below freezing.
301 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 (Tonight and Saturday) A cold front has moved through all of West Central Texas this afternoon. Overnight lows will range from the mid 30s across the Big Country to the low 40s across the Interstate 10 corridor.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVER ACROSS THE AREA.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. SUB ZERO TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
317 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE TODAY.
THE EXIT OF HIGH CLOUDS AND A LARGE CLEAR AREA DEVELOPING/MOVING NORTHEAST FROM TAMAULIPAS/NUEVO LEON WILL WIPE OUT THE MVFR CEILINGS AND MOVE OUT THE LEFTOVERS OF CIRRUS FROM THE LOWER VALLEY TO CLOSE OUT THE AFTERNOON.
325 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CANADA.
658 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CANADA.
400 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE HAS LED TO ANOTHER DRY. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE HIGHER MET/MAV POP NUMBERS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WITH COLD AIR BEING PULLED SOUTH AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY EARLY TOMORROW.
313 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS BECOMING MORE OF A WARM FRONT WITH TIME IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR WARNING AREA. LOW PRESSURE TO FORM CONSIDERABLY FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND PROGRESS OVER NORTH GA SAT MORNING GIVING MOST ALL LOCATIONS AN EXTENDED DURATION OF SW WINDS AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE WEEKEND WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE REGION.
NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF TEXAS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.
A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE STATE FROM THE WEST. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY PIVOT FROM JUST WEST OF WISCONSIN TONIGHT TO JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE BY TOMORROW EVENING. A NEARLY STATIONARY LOBE OF VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK. THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN LARGELY SATURATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS/DEFORMATION ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE ORIENTED NW TO SE ACROSS THE CWA. THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SATURATED THROUGH SATURDAY SO SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY.
351 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE HAS LED TO ANOTHER DRY. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE HIGHER MET/MAV POP NUMBERS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WITH COLD AIR BEING PULLED SOUTH AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY EARLY TOMORROW.
329 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 ALOFT - A LOW WAS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH A RIDGE NORTH OF THERE. SURFACE - HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CANADA SPRAWLED DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST TO NORTH TX WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT WAS STRUNG OUT ALONG THE GULF COAST. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED IN ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FL TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF. IN RESPONSE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE PULLS BACK TO THE EAST. FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE IOWA MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.
JMS VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL 19/06Z WHEN -RA AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED -TSRA OCCUR NEAR A COLD FRONT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE SE BTWN 19/00Z-19/06Z RIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. MVFR CIGS ARE THEN LIKELY BEFORE AND AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES BEGINNING 19/06Z.
/ISSUED 1021 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016/ Stronger push of cooler air making its way into northeast Oklahoma this morning as gusty northeast winds have ensued.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PREDICTED TO ENTER THE CWA TONIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW/SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS AFTER FROPA EARLY SATURDAY OWING IN PART TO COLDER AIR OVER WARMER SST VALUES.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS WEST ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE SURFACE PATTERN HAS CHANGED DUE TO A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW PRESSING EAST THROUGH OLD MEXICO. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS LOW.
402 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 AN OLD STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS WORKED BACK NORTH TODAY AND IS ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 190 CORRIDOR. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY. DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SWING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE MID- ATLANTIC. THIS WILL HELP DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.
DRYING SETS IN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST.
SOME OF THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE DEVELOPMENT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATER ON TONIGHT. TOMORROW UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND WILL PUT AN END TO THE RAINFALL FINALLY. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
426 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF TEXAS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.
323 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES THIS WEEKEND WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. BUT WITH SO MANY LOCATIONS HAVING BEEN ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE LAST WEEK. IT IS EXPECTED THAT IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING AND FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ON THE GROUND. BUT PRIMARY ACCUMULATION SATURDAY MORNING WOULD BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE COLDER TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW SNOW TO ACCUMULATE FROM THE START OF THE STORM.
MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH ROUGHLY BISECTING THE FA FROM SE-NW WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK IMPULSES PROPAGATING WESTWARD ALONG TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION. GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S. LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA DE-AMPLIFIES AND RETROGRADES A BIT TO THE COAST. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA ALSO RETROGRADES A BIT AS SHORT WAVES MOVE SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA. EXPECT THE LOWEST CIGS IN THE EAST/SOUTH AND WESTERN SITES WITH WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AT OR UNDER 10KT.
239 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY TO MIDLAND TEXAS. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH READINGS IN THE 50S.
206 PM PDT FRI MAR 18 2016 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AT THE COAST TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE INLAND AREAS.
A COLD FRONT WILL NEAR THE REGION BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
638 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES THIS WEEKEND WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. BUT WITH SO MANY LOCATIONS HAVING BEEN ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE LAST WEEK. IT IS EXPECTED THAT IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING AND FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ON THE GROUND. BUT PRIMARY ACCUMULATION SATURDAY MORNING WOULD BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE COLDER TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW SNOW TO ACCUMULATE FROM THE START OF THE STORM.
655 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF TEXAS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.
AND A COLD FRONT NEAR A LINE FROM TERRELL TO NEAR WACO. DO EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE TO OCCUR AT LEAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. BETTER COVERAGE ALONG AND OFF THE COAST SHOULD OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THAT AREA AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BUT WITH THE LOW LEVELS STARTING OFF SO DRY. POPS WILL RISE TO CATEGORICAL AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. FOLLOWED BY LOWERING POPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE IN THE AFTERNOON.
235 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 A cold front moved through the Permian Basin this morning and is currently located near I-10. Low clouds and cold air advection behind the cold front will remind us winter has not gone completely with low temps tonight and tomorrow night in most areas dropping well into the 30s, and even below freezing in a few locations. High pressure building south will also increase the pressure gradient across the Guadalupe Mountains causing strong winds at Guadalupe Pass tonight into early Saturday.
UPPER TROF AND ASSOC JET WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING WITH SNOW QUICKLY WINDING DOWN AS CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY DECREASES IN RESPONSE. RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING WHERE SHALLOW EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES. HAVE ALSO RECEIVED REPORTS OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE DOWN AROUND RATON PASS FROM SPOTTERS AND WEB CAMS. STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT OVERNIGHT ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
High pressure is building over the region today and the air mass will warm through the weekend.
310 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY, ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING, ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK.
130 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 AVIATION A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY. COOLER AIR WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PCPN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND LIMITED MOISTURE OVERALL HAS LIMITED THE PCPN THAT MAKES IT TO THE GROUND. WE WILL SEE THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH/WEAK FRONT SHIFT TO BE MORE NW TO SE BY AFTERNOON. SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE N AND NW SECTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE COOLER AIR WILL EXIST. AND A TROUGH TO OUR EAST. AND ALMOST SOME UPPER RIDGING WILL SQUASH PCPN CHCS TO ALMOST ZERO.
/ISSUED 1043 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016/ A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR PADUCAH KENTUCKY TO NEAR MIDLAND TEXAS.
1220 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED A LITTLE COOLER AIR TO BE DRAWN INTO THE AREA. BY AFTERNOON COOLER AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUIDANCE FOLLOWED KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 30S AND 40S. THE PERSISTENT NEARLY CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN IOWA SATURDAY.
Cold front currently surging southward toward the mountains with breezy north to northeast winds behind it. Latest sfc analysis shows the cold front somewhere in the South Plains, against weak return flow closer to home. /issued 452 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016/ An upper trough is over the Northern Plains and a cold front is currently pushing southward across the Texas panhandle. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible today from the Western Low Rolling Plains southward to the Lower Trans Pecos to the Big Bend area. Freezing temperatures will be possible Saturday morning behind the cold front across the higher terrain, the northern Permian Basin, and parts of Lea County.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ALL OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY OUT OF THE AREA.
The sunshine should be short-lived however, as the aforementioned upper low will begin to pivot southward across our area Saturday night.
/ISSUED 250 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016/ Scattered thunderstorms continue across far Southeast Oklahoma ahead of strong cold front. Temperatures will likely fall below freezing across much of Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas by Saturday morning and therefore the freeze watch has been upgraded to a freeze warning.
317 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 A FAIRLY WEAK BUT EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FROM MINNESOTA OVER IOWA TONIGHT. BUT NOT IN THE NORTH AND AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES THE CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN ANYWAY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES. TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT: FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL PIVOT SWD THROUGH THE STATE TOMORROW.
ELONGATED UPPER TROF WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD TOWARD IOWA TODAY AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH CANADIAN AIRMASS DROPPING INTO THE STATE. READINGS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY ALONG WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND. THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF ISOLD TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN IOWA TONIGHT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO IOWA ON SATURDAY WITH LAPSE RATES STEEPENING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COOL THROUGH THE DAY WITH THERMAL TROF BUILDING INTO THE STATE AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW.
1230 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 An upper level trough is currently spreading east across the Plains early this morning. The trough will continue to spread to the east and close off into a low across Iowa/northern Missouri on Saturday.
213 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUT AN INVERTED TROUGH NORTH OF THE LOW WILL REACH INTO THE AREA. REINFORCING ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION WILL STALL THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM.
1248 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 Today - Saturday: IR/Water vapor imagery shows a baroclinic leaf developing within a broad upper trough and expanding east from northeast CO across the CWA. While the primary operational model snow algorithms generate accumulating snow across the southern CWA inspection of model soundings suggests evaporative cooling should elevate the surface wet bulb temperatures to freezing or slightly above. Ground temperatures are well above freezing due to the prolonged warm spell we've had so any snow that would fall should melt almost on impact. Expect clouds to clear after midnight with sub-freezing overnight low temperatures likely. Operational models develop a closed low over IA on Saturday with vorticity lobes circling cyclonically across the CWA.