Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
With the upper low near the TX/LA border continuing to weaken to- night, the ridge aloft out west will begin to build into the area tomorrow.
1122 AM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017 Large scale ridge has amplifies over the western US, with NW flow over the Northern Plains. If there was a period to monitor it may be Monday/Monday night with better instability developing as southerly flow in the low levels brings higher Tds back to our CWA.
115 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017 Hydro Low pressure passing through the state today will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms.
403 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017 Despite more cloud cover and scattered convection today, daytime temperatures were still able to soar well into the low to mid 90s over much of the region with borderline heat advisory criteria in most locations. The good news is we should not need additional advisories for at least the next couple days with the breakdown of the upper level ridge due to the westward advancing upper disturbance/remnant Gulf easterly wave. Rain chances will begin to significantly fall off heading into mid week as the upper level ridge becomes firmly implanted back over the region.
239 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017 A ridge of high pressure will gradually shift offshore into the maritimes tonight into Monday. Low pressure will approach from the southwest later tonight and Monday and will deliver cooler temperatures and the likelihood of rain in an onshore flow.
315 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017 A stagnant mid-level trough will keep very humid conditions over the region through Monday with a continued threat for showers and thunderstorms.
The focus for convection this evening into the overnight hours will be along a very weak cold front currently moving across Central Oklahoma. Monday should be slightly cooler than today due to increasing cloudiness and slightly higher storm coverage.
Based on latest high resolution model runs and 18z NAM, this watch may need to be extended for portions the area into Monday, like from Tucson northwest, as an inverted trof moves north out of Sonora MX and produces localized heavy rainers.
A northwest flow aloft will develop across the Western High Plains tonight as ridging across the Great Basin continues to build. Lee side troughing will develop Monday helping to bring more of a southeasterly flow about to western Kansas with H85 temperatures ranging from the mid 20s(C) in central Kansas to the upper 20s(C) closer to the Colorado border. The axis of the mid/upper level high pressure will persist more or less from the Great Basin across Oklahoma into the southeastern states while the strongest westerly flow aloft will continue along the Canadian border into the Great Lakes region.
Winds still look strong and kept up the high wind warnings and the wind advisory.
259 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017 A potent upper trof will move into the Mid-South today.
Cold front is very slowly moving southward down the Florida peninsula early this morning, and is not expected to make much progress through the morning hours. All terminals begin a long duration of prevailing VFR conditions behind a secondary cold front Tuesday Evening / Night.
Time to break out the winter coats and hats as a reinforcing shot of cold air moves into our area via a secondary cold front. This front is associated with a closed upper low and strong vortmax divign down into the existing longwave trough and will help to amplify it even greater. Temps will only reach into the lower 60s, which is around 5 to 8 degrees below normal. Clouds and light winds should keep temps above freezing but it is possible a few isolated locations, especially across the high terrain, could reach freezing. With the falling temps late tonight the highest peaks across the eastern mountains may see a flurry or two if enough moisture can be squeezed out.
332 AM MDT Tue Oct 24 2017 Deep cyclonic flow sits across the western half of the CONUS while strong upper ridging has built into the western half. A quiet day is expected today with slightly warmer temps than yesterday. Warm air advection will push in from the west tonight into Wednesday with much warmer temps expected. possibly just reaching into the low 80s.
358 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017 From the satellite viewpoint we find a large upper low sinning over the Great Lakes tonight. The cold front sprawling across the east coast states and Florida will progress slowly southeastward through tonight. The main forecast problem is the timing of the arrival of the cold front.
306 AM PDT Tue Oct 24 2017 High pressure continues to build across the region through midweek. Gusty winds continue this morning over the ridges on the Sierra crest due to a strong pressure gradient along the west slope. Winds gusting around 50 mph will slowly ease this afternoon as warmer air continues to move into the Great Basin allowing the gradients to weaken. Otherwise, quiet weather continues through midweek with ridge of high pressure firmly in place over the region.
155 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017 A cold front will shift off the North Carolina coast early this morning. A secondary cold front will move eastward through the region this evening and tonight. A cold front across the NC Foothills late this evening will push east overnight and approach the coastal region toward daybreak. Recent GOES-16 satellite imagery shows fairly rapid clearing behind the convection, closely in line with the 850 mb trough axis. Otherwise, cool advection will allow temperatures to fall into the lower 50s in the Triad with warmer lows, only in the lower 60s across the Coastal Plain. Highs will be cooler, 60s NW to 70s SE.
1144 PM MDT Mon Oct 23 2017 06Z TAF CYCLE A backdoor cold front will continue to push wwd through the canyons of the central mt chain then into areas west of the RGV overnight with east winds gusting to around 30kt below canyons. All areas should be cooler on Tuesday, though central and western areas will be near normal. Temperatures will warm up quickly on Wednesday, particularly across the plains, as a weak disturbance crosses the state and surface lee side troughing develops.
326 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017 Northerly flow aloft, along with unidirectional winds in the lower levels will produce breezy conditions across the region today. The strongest winds will occur east of the I-29 corridor, closer to the low pressure system. This system will draw warmer air into the area with high temperatures likely reaching the 60s and low 70s.
232 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017 Temperatures at 2 AM were ranging from the upper 40s to low 50s with fairly dry air and dew points in the low to mid 30s. Water vapor shows a deepening trough over the central U. and a fairly strong upper level jet streak south from Manitoba across the plains and rounding the base of the trough along the MO/AR border. 850 mb plots were showing 40-45kts over the upper MS valley and plains to the west of the low which was over the UP of Michigan.
230 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017 A cold front will shift off the North Carolina coast early this morning. A secondary cold front will move eastward through the region this evening and tonight. The showers and storms have exited all but the far NE portions of the CWA, and everywhere should be dry prior to daybreak as the cold front shifts slowly eastward to coastal NC. Expect plenty of sunshine today, with a dry column and no lift mechanisms between the departing cold front and ahead of the secondary cold front this evening into the early overnight hours. Highs will be cooler, 60s NW to 70s SE.
/issued 306 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017/ A cold front is currently pushing its way through the FA and stretches along a line from Plains to O'Donnell. Wind direction will be affected very little as a pre-frontal trough has already shifted the winds to a more northerly direction. Continues northerly winds and slight (not strong by any means) CAA will help keep tomorrow roughly 10 degrees cooler than today. This next front will be the strongest so far this season as a H500 ridge is progged to sit across the Pacific coast while amplifying northward into southeastern AK. This will give a near meridional fetch of colder air from northern Canada and the AK interior where temps currently range from below 0 to the low 20s.
427 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017 A chance for showers will continue today and into Wednesday, as a trough of low pressure remains centered over the Great Lakes. High pressure will move into the area late in the week, with a slight increase in temperatures.
Surface pressure troughing will develop in response to height falls upstream on Wednesday.
540 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017 07z/2am water vapor imagery shows a deep upper trough in place over the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest. The prevailing upper trough will begin to shift eastward out of the region tonight, with lingering showers coming to an end across east-central Illinois during the early evening. Despite the clearing and overnight lows dropping into the lower to middle 30s, west winds of 8-10mph will prevent frost formation. with highs in the lower to middle 50s.
309 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017 Breezy northerly winds will affect the area again today as upper trough deepens and moves across the eastern U. Cooler temperatures also expected today, with highs in the 60s across the area which would be about 10-15 degrees cooler than yesterday.
/06Z TAFS/ Weak cold front arrives in the next 1-2 hours over the area TAF sites. The primary concern for the short term period is the passage of a weak cold front overnight tonight and its effects on fire weather potential for the CWA. Guidance continues to drop the lows for Wednesday morning, and when coupled with another excellent radiational cooling set up, this looks like the right trend.
The main concern will be elevated winds across AR as a cold front moves through the region. Tonight Through Wednesday A few high clouds drifting in from the northwest across the state this afternoon while the upper low that helped bring storms to the area this weekend was making its way northeast across the Ohio River Valley. Northwest flow aloft is in place over the state and a dry cold front will make its way across the state this evening through the overnight hours. As the wind lessens Tuesday night and high pressure slides closer to the state, one of the coldest nights of the season will be seen as lows dip down into the 30s for a good portion of the state.
The weather will be dry and relatively warm as a strong upper level ridge builds over the Pacific northwest. A thermal trough near the coast will induce easterly winds over most of the area, with the strongest winds along the ridgetops. These winds will allow for temperatures to be much warmer than normal across the forecast area. Elsewhere, temperatures will be a little cooler than the records, but still 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. The ridge will briefly weaken Wednesday, and a weak front will graze the north coast and Umpqua Basin Wednesday afternoon and evening, which may bring a few light showers to that area. Once the front moves through, the upper ridge will rebuild over the Pacific Northwest, bringing another round of warm and dry weather with low level easterly flow.
249 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017 A large upper level trough will continue to move into the area today. As this upper trough continues to dig southward toward the Gulf coast states today, single digit air at 850mb to our northwest will continue filtering into the area with gusty westerly winds at the surface. During the morning hours, we will see intermittent cloudiness as the upper level low in IL moves into IN by afternoon. During the evening and overnight hours, we will see the clouds gradually shift eastward as the main upper trough continues to move eastward. On Wednesday, we will be on the back side of the upper trough in strong northwest flow.
229 AM PDT Tue Oct 24 2017 Expect mild, dry conditions through the week, as high pressure builds into the Pacific Northwest. The ridge will be briefly interrupted by a fast moving weather system Wednesday. A flat ridge of high pressure will be over the region today for warm and dry conditions. Some high level moisture will be able to get over the ridge for scattered high clouds along the Canadian border through the day. The ridge flattens out tonight in response to a fast moving disturbance that just clips the northeast zones on Wednesday. High pressure rebounds quickly Wednesday night and this will put the area in a dry but cooler northerly flow.
Dominant upper ridge is in place over the coastal states giving us a northwesterly flow aloft.
408 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017 Current conditions across the area feature cloud cover moving in from the west associated with a post frontal trough rotating through the OH Valley. This closed low lingering over the Great Lakes will continue to bring a couple disturbances southeast through the area through the next 36 hours. By tonight, a second wave will swing through bringing some cloud cover and providing some insulation keep temps from bottoming out into the lower 30s.
228 AM MDT Tue Oct 24 2017 Mostly sunny skies and dry conditions are expected to rule the area today as high pressure builds to our west, with a northerly flow aloft. The flow aloft will shift to westerly on Wednesday with a little breezier conditions up north, as the cold front and upper level trough approaches. The surface cold front will be moving through Wyoming. As the upper low of this system moves through the High Plains, its cold front will plunge down the Front Range but also affect western Colorado near the Continental Divide. The vast majority of its precipitation will remain in the higher mountains east of a line from Hayden to Eagle to Gunnison.
637 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017 Periods of rain and breezy conditions can be expected today on the southern fringe of deep low pressure over the Great Lakes.
340 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017 Deep low pressure (986 mb) was located north of Presque Isle MI. Meanwhile cold canadian high pressure (1042 mb) was centered over the Northern Rockies. Cold advection will assist in steepening the low level lapse rates and bolstering mixing, which along with lingering tight pressure gradient will lead to brisk/windy day.
Cold advection continues this morning, with temperatures already in the lower 30s in some locales of southwestern North Dakota. Winds don't drop off completely, so don't expect a real cold night, but did lean a bit toward cooler guidance in our normally cool areas in the west.
Concur with determinsitic output that an upper level trough will move slowly EWD from the central/northern Plains to the SERN CONUS during the period. The foregoing upper pattern is conducive to a cold front across the CWA/MSA today, and a secondary surge tonight/early Wednesday. Slight cooler maximum temperatures expeced today. Significantly cooler tonight with lows in the 40s over most locations. SCA conditions are expected over the MSA today and tonight with conditions improving from west to east Wednesday as the surface anticyclone approaches the coast from the west (NAM deterministic.
324 AM MDT Tue Oct 24 2017 Imagery shows an amplified ridge across the wrn CONUS and a large trof across the ern half of the CONUS. The next upper lvl SW trof that will eventually affect WY currently lays at about 160W lon ovr the PAC. The SFC is post frontal across WY with the CONUS basically following the upper levels with high pressure entrenched across the west and low pressure over the east and a long cold front dividing the two areas. Today through Wednesday: Warming and drying trend in place as heights rise with the ridge.
643 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017 A chance for showers will continue today and into Wednesday, as a trough of low pressure remains centered over the Great Lakes. High pressure will move into the area late in the week, with a slight increase in temperatures.
608 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017 [Through 12z Wednesday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with clear skies behind a cold front. A drier and cooler airmass will prevail across the region today behind a cold front. Skies will be clear with afternoon high temperatures ranging from the lower 70s across the northwest to the upper 70s across the southeast big bend.
424 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017 Low pressure will maintain shower chances and cool temperatures through mid week. Broad dry slot has essentially ended precipitation over most of the region, save for a few showers as the upper level jet strengthens across the Ohio Valley and a secondary cold front approaches. Coverage should increase later this morning as the large upper low pivots over the Great Lakes. Dry air will continue to be pulled into the upper trough, limiting precip elsewhere.
320 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017 One cold front along the Atlantic coast, with the reinforcing cold front near a Louisville, Kentucky to Monroe, Louisiana line at 2 am.
High pressure continues to impact the forecast area, with dry conditions. Similar conditions expected Wednesday with a return of morning fog, and ridging resulting in continued warm and dry conditions.
Even more clouds north at TRI as they are closer to the the area of low pressure across the Ohio River Valley.
Latest RAP analysis and satellite imagery showed a broad upper trough over the Mississippi Valley. This was associated with a reinforcing cold front which was tracking through the region. Clear skies should help to maximize radiational cooling, and lows will range from the middle 30s to the lower 40s.
359 AM MDT Tue Oct 24 2017 An upper level ridge of high pressure will be over the region today through Wednesday afternoon resulting in mostly dry but windy conditions. A fast moving cold front moves southward through the region Wednesday night, producing a few rain or snow showers over the Rocky Mountain Front and across Central and Southwest MT.
319 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017 A broad upper trough is centered over the Upper Midwest and extends southward towards the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front is pushing through the area with northeast winds. High temperatures today will be much cooler behind the front with highs mostly in the 60s and 70s. Temperatures will begin warming back up on Wednesday as the upper trough moves further east and southwest winds return to the area.
Aloft, large scale trough encompasses much of the Great Lakes and lower Ohio Valley. Toward the mid to late afternoon hours, another lobe of energy associated with the upper level low will pivot through. Look for readings to top out in the lower 50s across southern Indiana, to mid/upper 50s across central Kentucky. Lows tonight will drop into the lower 40s with some of the cooler spots possibly reaching the upper 30s if clouds clear and winds relax.
116 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017 Low pressure will maintain shower chances and cool temperatures through mid week. Otherwise, showers should start to encroach into eastern Ohio toward morning as the large upper low pivots over the Great Lakes. Dry air will continue to be pulled into the upper trough, limiting precip elsewhere.
1205 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017 A dry sfc cold front is moving across our eastern counties with gusty winds. A Canadian air mass will remain in place through Tuesday with a large upper level trough over the eastern CONUS. Highs in the 50s, maybe the lower 60s, will be common.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): Satellite imagery early this morning shows a few patches of clouds in the mid valley and Ranchlands, but most areas will remain clear with cool temperatures dropping into the lower 60s just before sunrise. Light E/ENE winds will shift to the north and increase this afternoon as stronger high pressure quickly moves southward into central Texas by this evening. The rip current risk will become moderate to high this afternoon as surf conditions quickly deteriorate along the lower Texas coast. Temperatures this afternoon will likely still reach the mid to upper 80s, but CAA and much lower dew points will result in lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s tonight as high pressure settles over South Texas. Sunny skies will continue on Wednesday with highs reaching the lower 80s.
and Wednesday Active weather pattern this week with the development of a deep low pressure system just northeast of the forecast area today for starters. The upper trough will continue to deepen over the region late tonight into Wednesday morning as a north to south 170 kt jet drops over the western two thirds of the state including parts of central and north central Wisconsin. Upper ridge begins to build into the area later Wednesday with the upper trough shifting eastward.
400 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017 Clear skies and light winds have allowed temperatures across the TN Valley as of 08Z to drop into the lower 50s to upper 40s. With northwesterly winds 10-15 mph and gusts 20-25 mph streaming cooler air into the TN Valley, daytime highs will only reach the lower 60s despite the sunshine. High pressure will begin to build into the region Tuesday night allowing for calm winds and mostly clear skies through the night. Wednesday's daytime highs will be cooler with highs reaching the upper 50s and lows in the upper 30s/lower 40s.
542 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017 Temperatures at 2 AM were ranging from the upper 40s to low 50s with fairly dry air and dew points in the low to mid 30s. Water vapor shows a deepening trough over the central U. and a fairly strong upper level jet streak south from Manitoba across the plains and rounding the base of the trough along the MO/AR border. 850 mb plots were showing 40-45kts over the upper MS valley and plains to the west of the low which was over the UP of Michigan.
144 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017 Low pressure will maintain shower chances and cool temperatures through mid week. Otherwise, showers should start to encroach into eastern Ohio toward morning as the large upper low pivots over the Great Lakes. Dry air will continue to be pulled into the upper trough, limiting precip elsewhere.
Overall most of the coming 6-8 days the region will be in a mean trough thus cooler weather will be the norm for awhile. Cold front and associated gusty showers/storms should exit the eastern portion of the forecast area between 12Z-15Z. However, diurnal heating combined with approach of upper trough axis and secondary cold front should result in increasing cumulus by afternoon with even a PM sprinkle possible across the Alleghenies and central mountains. The coldest air does not filter in until Wednesday but Tuesday will be the start of a cooler period.
Tuesday into Wednesday will feature much cooler conditions and additional chances for rain showers under deep low pressure over the Great Lakes region.
159 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017 A chance for showers will continue today and into Wednesday, as a trough of low pressure remains centered over the Great Lakes. High pressure will move into the area late in the week, with a slight increase in temperatures.
418 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017 A cold front continues to progress southeast across the area this morning and should exit the CWA by late this morning. Wednesday will likely remain cooler than normal with winds being much lighter than today.
An upper level ridge will continue to build over the Pacific Northwest tonight. This ridge will then persist over the area Tuesday. This ridge will cause skies across the area to become clear, while increasing subsidence over the region. Afternoon temperatures will range from the lower 50s to lower 60s--about 3 to 7 degrees above seasonal average. Overnight lows will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s in the mountains and and in the mid 30s to lower 40s in the lower elevations. Patchy fog is common during late October when the forecast area is under a high pressure ridge, so overnight fog is possible but too early to pinpoint exact locations. An upper level ridge will keep condition VFR at all TAF sites through the next 24 hours.
321 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017 Main concerns in this forecast cycle are elevated winds over AR behind a cold front which will lead to a lake wind advisory. Then later in the week, the next cold front with possible rain chances, then the coldest air of the Fall season over AR. Aloft, the deep upper low pressure trough was from the central to eastern U. Continued mostly sunny on Wednesday with highs remaining cooler than normal, with 50s north and 60s elsewhere.