Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
PRESSURE IS RAPIDLY RISING BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN NEAR-CALM CONDITIONS AND TEMPS PLUMMETING TO 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY EXPECT SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. OTHERWISE A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN LATE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
243 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWFA LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE.
STAYED WITH COOLER GUIDANCE FOR TUE NIGHT LOWS AS WELL.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THIS LOW IS DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. BEHIND THIS LOW. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH AND WILL BE NEAR INTERSTATE 20 BY 12Z. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM TOMORROW. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR THE HILL COUNTRY TO NEAR 50 FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
1106 AM EST MON FEB 29 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH LOW PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT. STRATOCU IN COLD ADVECTION SHOULD PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE AFTN BEFORE WEAK RIDGING RESULTS IN PARTIAL CLRG.
1136 AM EST MON FEB 29 2016 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING WILL ERODE AS A COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE LOW PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WPC PROGS ARE A BIT HIGHER BUT ALSO LEAN TOWARD THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
221 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEK. DRY AIR WILL BE REINFORCED BY A PAIR OF WEAK COLD FRONTS.
COLD FRONT TONIGHT RESULTS IN HIGHS ON TUESDAY NEAR CLIMO.
WARM SECTOR/THERMAL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE STATE TO BEGIN THE MORNING WITH MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS. A RELATIVELY POTENT COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE STATE TODAY WITH STEADY TO FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS COLD ADVECTION INTENSIFIES. SHORTER TERM MODELS ARE INDICATING THIS WILL OCCUR FROM NORTHWEST IOWA DOWN TOWARD THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR BY 00Z AND HAVE BEGAN TO GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS IN THESE AREAS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. PCPN TYPE LIKELY TO BE LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES INITIALLY AS TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
1237 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016 SITES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 COULD SEE SOME VERY EARLY MORNING FOG AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING.
A SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH AND BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.
THEN GUST AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SWRD THROUGH ERN CO. TOMORROW WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER BUT STILL AT OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST OF MARCH.
200 PM MST MON FEB 29 2016 A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RE-BUILD OVER THE REGION TO PRODUCE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS.
WITH THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. A RETURN TO ABOVE FREEZING HIGHS IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WEST.
312 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TONIGHT.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST WILL AFFECT THE CUT BANK/HAVRE AREAS TODAY.
A cold front will move across the area on Tuesday, switching winds around to the west and then eventually to the north.
1137 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016 POTENT COLD FRONT DROPPING RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL PUSH INTO THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST OF THE REGION AROUND DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY. HAVE SIDED WITH COOLER GUIDANCE VALUES.
Highs today will be in the low to mid 70s from near Dodge City and south with the best warm air advection, and around 70 north. Light and variable winds early become north to northwesterly and increase to 25 to 35 mph as a cold front advances across southwest Kansas after midnight. Highs, with mostly clear skies, will be cooler behind a cold front, with readings in the mid to upper 50s near Dodge City and south, and around 50 at Hays to Saint John.
1102 AM EST MON FEB 29 2016 OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.
UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON LAKE WITH TROF AXIS JUST EAST OF MICHIGAN. RIDGING OVER WESTERN CANADA WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE HURON THIS AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO GUST OVER 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL SLACKEN GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING.
An upper level trough will dive south across the central Plains tonight sending a cold front to the southeast. A cooler air mass will then overspread the area behind the cold front on Tuesday with highs close to 20 degrees cooler than those that are occurring this afternoon. Highs Tuesday are expected to be in the middle 40s to the lower 50s.
High pressure to the east of the region will provide light south to southwesterly flow, which will increase low level moisture over the next couple of days. Expect warmer overnight temperatures than the last few days, with lows generally in the upper 40s to near 50.
As a result we will see high temps yo-yo up and down this week as a series of weak cold fronts moving into eastern New Mexico and west Texas. The northerly track of the upper level troughs will not allow for any rain chances with any of these fronts, and in fact the opposite will be the case with fire weather being the primary concern as west winds maintain dry air over the CWA.
COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE NIGHT. COOLER TEMPS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW TODAY. NEW 12Z NAM BRINGS PACIFIC WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN IN OREGON ZONES AND WRN-MOST IDAHO ZONES. CLEARING AND WARMING LATER TUESDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL COME IN TUESDAY EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. CLEARING AND COOLER LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND THIS PRIMARILY WITHIN THE LOW LEVELS.
TRANQUIL FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL. THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AT 5-7KTS.
CONTINUING QUIET WX PATTERN AS A SHORT WAVE TROF OFF THE ERN SEABOARD KEEPS A WEAK H100-H70 RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED OVER CENTRAL FL. THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THRU THE H85- H70 LYR. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS LAPSE RATES ASSOCD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ARE AOB 3. 0C/KM THRU H85-H70 WITH NO PROSPECT OF BEING SCOURED OUT UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU. A WEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. TURNING COOLER WED NIGHT WITH A NORTH WIND AND LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S FAR NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN U. WILL VEER LOW LEVEL FLOW ONSHORE INTO LATE WEEK AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NRN GULF COAST STATES.
THE REST OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY A TEMPORARY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL WARM FRONTAL FEATURE THAT MOVES OVER THIS AREA TUESDAY THAT MAY BRING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS NEAR STANLEY AND GALENA SUMMIT DURING THE MORNING.
TEMP TIMEHEIGHT DISPLAYS INDICATE SUFFICIENTLY LOW ENOUGH FREEZING LEVELS TO SUPPORT SNOWFALL.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 327 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016 AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING FOLLOWING THE STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUE/WED. A RATHER SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS THEN FORECAST FROM FRI INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE STRONGEST SURGE OF WARM AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS FRI NIGHT AND SAT.
THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW EARLY THIS MORNING AND LOOKS LIKE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN OVER THE EASTERN UINTA MTS AND THE CO NORTHERN MTS BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVE RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AND THROUGHOUT TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE WESTERN U.
1110 AM EST MON FEB 29 2016 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MID- MORNING.
104 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TONIGHT.
An attendant cold front will move across west central and southwest Kansas this evening and should be south of the region by midnight. 850 millibar temperatures will be some 10 degrees celsius cooler than today so highs in the mid to upper 50s still looks good. Through the latter part of this week, the upper flow pattern continues to have a slight northwesterly component as an upper level ridge remains quasi-stationary over western North America.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED WEAK TROUGHING EXITING THE TN VALLEY TO THE EAST, WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. AT THE SFC, A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC TROF EXTENDS DOWN THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS SWWRD INTO THE ARKLAMISS, BISECTING OUR AREA FROM SW TO NE. COLD FRONT WAS PASSING THRU KMSL AT THIS HOUR AND WILL ARRIVE AT KHSV BY 14Z.
MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL SLIGHTLY COOLER. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MAINTAINS A POSITIVE TILT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. BUT DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER MIDDAY AS THE FRONT USHERS IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS.
Do not expect today to be as warm as yesterday as we are starting out cooler. We will see mixing up into the 900-850mb range which should still allow us to reach highs at or just above the warmer GFS MOS guidance.
942 AM PST MON FEB 29 2016 RECORD HEAT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK DUE TO CONTINUED RIDGING ALOFT AND PERIODS OF OFFSHORE FLOW.
WHICH WILL BOTH PUSH COLD FRONTS THROUGH AS WELL. WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY MIDNIGHT. GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AT THE LOWER LEVELS FROM OUR SOUTHEAST. WRF & HRRR MODELS BOTH PROJECTS SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN WITH THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATE IN THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. AS THE NORTH WINDS WILL ONLY BRING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR.
346 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016 OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.
Lows fall to the low 30s north central to near 40 in the far southeast. Upper trough swings out early Tuesday morning, with deep moisture still lacking and forcing exiting.
HEAT INDICES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AS SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S COMBINE WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
903 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A FEW CLOUDS ALONG WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME THETA- E ADVECTION PUSHING INTO THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS SO I AM JUST EXPECTING SOME CLOUD COVER. THERMAL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE STATE WILL ALLOW READINGS TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH SOME LOW 90S IN THE WEST. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO CLIMB QUICKLY AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL INCREASE GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS AND INFLOW INTO THE SYSTEM.
500 MB RIDGING WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A PRETTY STABLE AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE RGV. THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THE DEEPER LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE HAS LITTLE CHANCE PUSHING EAST IN THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS. WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS REMAINING IN PLACE EXPECT PRETTY MUCH STATUS QUO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE RGV TODAY THROUGH FRI. THE ECMWF HAS A WARMER BIAS FOR THE MFE AREA VERSUS THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS.
A LIGHT WEST WIND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. TODAY AND OVERNIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AND TONIGHT AND PROVIDE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE CENTER OF THE LOW TO MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS EAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S.
DID END UP BUMPING UP AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. A 250 MB UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXIT THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND REACH WISCONSIN TONIGHT. A BROAD 850 MB RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY BEFORE REACHING THE LAKE MICHIGAN AREA LATE TONIGHT.
830 AM MST THU JUL 23 2015 A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY AND FRIDAY.
859 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MAY BE TOO WARM ACROSS SE MO IF CLOUDS HANG TOUGH ALL DAY BUT THINKING THEY WILL BREAK UP ENOUGH THIS AFTN TO MAKE A LATE RUN INTO THE LOW 80S.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND THINK THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN MAGIC VALLEY AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RIGHT ALONG THE PAC NW COAST AS OF 3 AM MDT WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT VERY SLOWLY INLAND THROUGH TODAY. THE LARGER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN FURTHER OVERNIGHT AND ON FRI AS THE AXIS MOVES INTO ERN OREGON. WHICH MEANS LOWER 60S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
100 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY WHILE ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH IS APPROACHING.
BUT SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY SHOULD RESULT IN HOT/DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
618 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING BRINGING A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TO MOST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER PLEASANTLY WARM DAY TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY, IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. COMPLIMENTS OF 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST THAT SHIFTS EAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE JUST SOUTH OF THE KEYS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TODAY.
Convection has dissipated considerably over the last hour or two, as the low level jet has veered and associated ascent waned.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
/ISSUED 339 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015/ THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN CONSENSUS IN CLOSING OFF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER FLORIDA.
THE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEK.
WE EXPECT MOST AREAS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S TODAY WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE IMMEDIATE NORTH SHORE ZONES COOLER. 6 INCHES AHEAD OF THE LOW. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND THUNDERSTORMS.
1031 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. RESULTING AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING BRINGING A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TO MOST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER PLEASANTLY WARM DAY TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY, IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. COMPLIMENTS OF 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST THAT SHIFTS EAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY.
1037 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 PATTERN SIMILAR TO PAST FEW DAYS WITH LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF FL AND RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE REGION. ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON EXPECTED BEFORE CONVECTION INCREASES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 102-106.
738 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE FRONT RANGE WHICH THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN.
AVIATION A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY AND FRIDAY.
1016 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 MOSTLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTER THIS S/W TROF AXIS PASSES THIS EVENING.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS OR STORMS WOULD BE CAUSED BY THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE WESTERLY TONIGHT THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY LATE FRIDAY DUE TO THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH. THIS NEW UPPER TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE PACNW LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
WITH A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER (DEWPOINTS LIKELY AROUND 70) AND STRONG FORCING VIA A COLD FRONT. WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS (WRF/RAP/NAM) DEVELOP A CLUSTER OF STORMS FURTHER SOUTH AROUND THE BISMARCK AREA. STORMS WILL PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING.
Convection will initiate along this trough first today, then along the seabreeze fronts in north Florida.
THIS IS PROJECTED TO OCCUR BY THE MAJORITY OF FORECAST MODEL SOLUTIONS DESPITE THE WESTWARD BUILDING OVER THE STATE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE EAST.
/ISSUED 255 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2015/ HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES HIGHER FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDS EWD AND THICKNESSES INCREASE ACCORDINGLY. MODELS STILL SHOWING A SIGNAL FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEE TROUGH/INSTABILITY AXIS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO LINE THIS AFTN AND EVENING DESPITE INCREASING HEIGHTS AND MODEST LOW LEVEL DRYING. IT/S AT THAT TIME WHEN A VIGOROUS NW CONUS TROUGH AND STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW WILL DISLODGE THE HIGH EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY ALLOW SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS ERN NM AND INTO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT EMANATING FROM THIS TROUGH MAY STALL IN/NEAR THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY COOLER TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
729 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MODELS INDICATING MUCH COOLER THIS WEEKEND WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
745 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 UPPER PATTERN TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NATION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A BROAD TROUGH IN THE EAST AND A RIDGE IN WEST.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OUT W ALSO LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN/EXPAND EWD GOING INTO SAT. ALL OF THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS STARTING SAT. AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/MID SOUTH REGIONS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE PATTERN BEGINS TO RETREAT BACK TO THE W WHILE ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NW. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP TO TAPER OFF THE CHC OF PCPN ARND 01Z.
SHORT WAVE OVER S IDAHO WILL PROPAGATE ENE TODAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST PUTTING FA IN MID LEVEL SW FLOW. RIDGE FLATTENS INTO THE WEEKEND AND WITH RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW TIMING OF ANY WEAK WAVES WITH WEAK SURFACE FEATURES WILL MAKE PCPN FORECAST CHALLENGING.
945 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARDS OVER THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP TO TAPER OFF THE CHC OF PCPN ARND 01Z.
ESPECIALLY WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING INDUCING FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION THAT WOULD PUT A LID ON ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TONIGHT-FRI: WITH THE STRONG(!) MASSIVE UPPER-DECK RIDGE CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THE CAP WOULD LIKELY BE SAFETY-SEALED. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AS THE MID-UPPER DECK TROF PUSHES E FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE DAKOTAS MON NIGHT & TUE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1213 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER. AMPLIFIED WAVE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE LOWER GREAT PLAINS AND TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FLATTENS OUT WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOME NEARLY ZONAL LATE IN THE PERIOD. INTEGRATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES START THE DAY ON THE LOW SIDE. TEMPS ON FRIDAY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH LOW/MID 90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MOSTLY 70S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. THE SRN PLAINS RIDGE APPEARS TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND SLIP A BIT FARTHER SOUTHEAST.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NOW ALONG THE NORCAL COAST WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL AIRMASS COOLS A FEW DEGREES AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INLAND SO SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DROP IN TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS TODAY MAKING TODAY THE LIKELY COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INLAND ON FRIDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT WARM UP ALTH0UGH DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
SO HEATING/INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM. SHORT WAVE OVER S IDAHO WILL PROPAGATE ENE TODAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST PUTTING FA IN MID LEVEL SW FLOW. RIDGE FLATTENS INTO THE WEEKEND AND WITH RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW TIMING OF ANY WEAK WAVES WITH WEAK SURFACE FEATURES WILL MAKE PCPN FORECAST CHALLENGING.
533 AM MDT THU JUL 23 2015 THE PREDAWN WATER VAPOR LOOP DEPICTED A CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE FLANKED BY TROUGHS OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CONUS. SURFACE FEATURES INCLUDED A WEAK RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AND WEAK TROUGHS OVER THE NORTH/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL WY. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL RIDGE NORTH INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY AS 700 MB TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID TEENS CELSIUS. A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE HIGHS WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S.
910 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
923 AM MDT THU JUL 23 2015 ADDED FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR RED FLAG WARNING A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT AND PASSING JET SPEED MAXIMA WILL CONTINUE AIDING THE LOWGRADE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW CO AND NE UT EARLY THIS MORNING.