Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper level ridging remains in place over the central part of the country, with low pressure both to the west and east. At the surface, high pressure continues to move to the northwest into the area. Temperatures will likely be a degree or two cooler as well, which should keep heat indices below 100 degrees for most of the area. However, heat indices between 100-105 degrees are expected in our far northern counties with the highest dew points. Monday should feel better than today with the high pressure still over the area. Temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s are forecast with heat indices in the low 90s.
544 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Cooler and drier conditions are expected today and Monday.
High pressure will bring above average heat to start the week. Strong high pressure oriented from Sonora northeastward through New Mexico and the Central Plains will continue to bring temperatures several degrees above average to start the week. By late tomorrow into mid-week ensembles point toward some drying from the northwest as troughiness pushes into the Great Basin and our ridge reconsolidates into a blocking position for deep moisture.
520 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 An upper ridge that extends from the Midwest to the southern Rockies will build somewhat south and east today while a weak persistent upper level inverted trough extends from east TX north to the Four State MO/AR/OK/KS region. Sfc dew points are also a little drier, especially over the higher terrain of the Ozarks, so no heat headlines are expected, but will mention 90s to near 100 deg afternoon heat index values in the HWO.
/10/ Prior discussion below: Slight mid/upper level troughing will extend into northern portions of the ArkLaMiss today and this could help to focus diurnally driven convective precipitation over north central MS as we go into the afternoon.
NAM and GFS then in general agreement on additional storms tonight over the SW part of forecast area along warm front, overspreading the area late.
409 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 A weak upper level trough is currently just to the west in western LA and eastern TX. The low associated with this will continue to drift southwest which could help fire up some thunderstorms later today. High pressure will then begin to build into the area Monday and will continue to strengthen as an upper level ridge starts to amplify.
An upper trough over the western U. with closed low over Oregon will continue to track slowly east during the week. As the trough tracks east, expect a decreasing trend in temperatures with near or a slightly below normal readings expected toward the middle of the week with the associated height falls.
246 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 The convective complex of showers and thunderstorms stabilized at least the central/eastern portion of the forecast area, but will be keeping a close eye on storms that develop over west/south central MN this afternoon and evening given the high instability that remains there.
Temperatures have gotten into the low 90s at each of our climate sites. Updated at 225 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Unsettled conditions are expected to continue throughout the work week, as a upper level trough to our north moves through the Great Lakes region.
Area remains unstable for Monday as south central Texas stays between an upper level ridge to the west and another to the east.
As the mid-level ridge across the High Plains weakens and moves toward the Midwest, a mid-level weakness will develop across the Southern Plains.
Still looking at a Pacific trough/Great Plains ridge in the mid-levels, with unstable subtropical air being pumped northward and into the Great Basin. Otherwise, temperatures do start to cool down on Tue as a weak trough moving through the mean southwesterly flow does bring in some colder air briefly.
348 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019 A weak cold front will drop south through the area tonight.
Outflows overnight brought the higher boundary layer moisture values almost to the western edge of Yavapai and Coconino counties, so isolated convection is possible nearly everywhere, but more likely to the east. Flow begins to increase and turn more southwesterly on Monday, in response to deepening low pressure over the Pacific Northwest.
/issued 409 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019/ A weak upper level trough is currently just to the west in western LA and eastern TX. The low associated with this will continue to drift southwest which could help fire up some thunderstorms later today. High pressure will then begin to build into the area Monday and will continue to strengthen as an upper level ridge starts to amplify.
Specifically, an upper ridge is anchored from the Desert Southwest into the Central Plains while an upper trough digs into the Pacific Northwest. While the lee trough is sitting over eastern Colorado into the Texas Pahnandle, it is very dry along the boundary with deep thermal mixing bringing dewpoints in the 40s with little to no 0-1 km MLCAPE.
After a warm day today, there will be a cooling trend as low pressure aloft strengthens. High pressure will bring warmer weather and less coastal cloudiness for the upcoming weekend. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO A kink in the upper level flow early this morning was able to use the remnants of tropical cyclone Alvin to organize a band of very light showers across the region. Some clouds, including mountain wave clouds over the lower deserts remain this morning, but those will gradually dissipate. In fact, probably the warmest day of the coming week with temps rising into the mid 90s for portions of the inland valleys and high desert, and between 105-110 in the lower desert.
Some storms could also still spark along the retreating cold front across Johnson County, where deeper moisture is more available. A weak impulse may continue to ride over the top of the flattened ridge during the day, which may spark a few localized showers mainly over the higher terrain of the Absarokas during peak heating. A more zonal pattern will set in across the region on Monday, as the ridge begins to flatten.
230 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 An upper-level ridging pattern continues to center over the Central Plains area, maintaining dry conditions and persistent hot temperatures. Slightly lower dew point values in the lower 70s compared to the last couple of days have and will continue to bring slightly cooler heat indices today through the early week ahead. While not much change is expected there, heat indices will be around 10 degrees cooler compared to the latest trends, stemming from slightly cooler air temps and drier dew point values.
222 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019 18Z Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicate a 594 DM H5 ridge remains centered over the Tri State area, leading to widespread clear skies. Temperatures will be slightly cooler tomorrow based on cooling temps aloft, but with the exception of northwestern zones do not expect any big relief from heat just yet. An area of upper level low pressure cuts off the main area of high pressure over the southeastern U. from high pressure over the southwestern U. A closed low over south-central Canada helps sustain the low pressure across the central U.
1122 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Cooler and drier conditions are expected today and Monday.
Deep layered high pressure will build in over the Gulf over the coming days, permitting a slightly drier trend through midweek. The weak westerly pattern will help keep the higher rain chances over the interior and towards the western fringes of the east coast metro the first few days of the week. Warmer temperatures are expected, especially compared to the relatively mild weekend temperatures just experienced thanks to the cloud cover by the rainfall.
An upper ridge that extends from the Midwest to the southern Rockies will build somewhat south and east today while a weak persistent upper level inverted trough extends from east TX north to the Four State MO/AR/OK/KS region. Sfc dew points are also a little drier, especially over the higher terrain of the Ozarks, so no heat headlines are expected, but will mention 90s to near 100 deg afternoon heat index values in the HWO.
226 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Region remains under high pressure influence this afternoon with mostly sunny skies and southerly winds around 10 mph. Quiet evening is in store with only notable change being increasing high clouds by Monday morning as an upper low in southern Texas lifts northward overnight. While low level moisture profiles are pretty similar Monday afternoon compared to today, influence from the nearby upper low should increase low cloud cover by midday. Overall upper pattern begins to shift Monday evening as an upper low enters the Pacific Northwest, dipping the upper jetstream a bit further south, in proximity to a front progged to be the focus for thunderstorms throughout the week.
Additional energy will move through the area on Monday, which is expected to initiate another round of convection with best focus over the higher terrain, especially over the San Juan mountains of southwestern Colorado.
316 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Upper level high pressure ridge over the Central CONUS breaks down on Monday with transition to near zonal flow becoming established over the northern tier of the country.
138 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Thus far, deep convection has been triggered along the higher terrain and along the sheared vorticity maximum in north AL.
1116 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Not seeing a whole lot of development this morning with upper low off to our west, but any kind of daytime heating (which hasn't happened yet with a majority of area temperatures still under 80 degrees) should help to generate showers and thunderstorms, possibly holding off until later this afternoon or early this evening. Periods of shra/tstms will continue across the area today into Monday as upper low currently situated overhead slowly edges westward. Overall precip coverage and rain chances should diminish somewhat tonight and Monday as the inverted trof axis moves further west and PW's drop a bit.
237 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019 A cold front pushes south into the area today.
136 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Cooler and drier conditions are expected today and Monday.
A ridge is building over the region today. Low level moisture left over from recent rain showers is getting mixed up into the atmosphere today, but the building ridge is keeping it from producing showers and thunderstorms, so fair weather cumulus is the result. In general, the blocking pattern of the northern Pacific remains in place, locking a trough over the Pacific Northwest. The Northern Rockies region is stuck in a tug of war between that low pressure system and the strengthening four-corners high. Today and tomorrow the high pressure is winning, so expect warmer temperatures and partly cloudy skies with mainly high clouds.
930 AM PDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Mid- and high-level moisture from the remnants of Alvin will remain over our area today bringing a slight chance of showers to the higher elevations and a slight chance for sprinkles in some of the valleys.
A few showers over the higher terrain of northeast Oregon and central Idaho, otherwise a quiet day on tap.
Summertime high pressure was established across much of the nations midsection, causing enough atmospheric suppression to keep the weather dry. The summertime ridge begins to flatten out and weaker heights will occur over the Ozarks for several days through the work week.
150 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 There is some convection beginning to fire on the periphery of the dome of high pressure, well off to our northeast.
Otherwise, stratus across much of NW MN will slowly diminish/move southeast as the weak cold front pushes southeast. Confidence is low on coverage, but region of steep mid level lapse rates/good instability ahead of cold front still supports possible strong to isolated severe storm development across southeast ND or west central MN. Expect most of this activity to shift east of our CWA with the next few hours and main instability axis eventually shift south as cold front moves over our CWA. Despite cold frontal passage air mass will still support above normal temps and ironically due to clearing we will actually be warmer than yesterday (when convection busted our potentially hot day).
1239 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Aviation - Severe weather threat is mostly south and west of Lower Michigan next couple days - Showers and thunderstorms possible July 4th - Turning cooler late in the week The upper ridge axis shifts east then is flattened as troughing over eastern Canada expands southward by the end of the week. Typical summer weather pattern early in the week with convection topping the ridge axis and moving south/southeast and for the most part missing Lower Michigan. Expect cooler weather to return by the end of the week.
High pressure will remain over the region overnight. A weak area of low pressure will push a warm front across the forecast area on Monday.
1235 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Upper ridging continues to prevail today across west central Nebraska, though with the approach of a PAC NW trough, the ridge is showing signs of becoming less amplified. For comparison, NW Neb will only manage the lower 80s this afternoon while our far southern counties will once again flirt with triple digit heat. Temperatures Monday will be slightly cooler owing to increased cloud cover and the location of the front.
1102 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Upper ridge continues to build in over the region. Clouds in northern MS have kept temperatures slightly cooler this morning, so temperatures have been adjusted downwards to the south. Current temperatures are in the low to middle 70s with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s under partly cloudy skies. Morning lows should be mostly in the low 70s, with a few upper 60s near the Tennessee River. High temperatures should climb into the low 90s across most of the area with heat indices in the middle to upper 90s. Over the next few days, a broad fairly weak ridge will shift out of the Plains over the Eastern US.
An upper ridge is currently building across the region providing a consistent deep southerly flow over the Mid-South. The pattern will remain much of the same through most of the week with the ridge over the east. The ridge over the CWA isn't atypical for the Summertime with high temperatures expected to remain in the low 90s every day through the week and lows in the low 70s. Dew points will remain the low 70s throughout the week. Additionally, the next best chance for rain unfortunately looks like it'll be on the 4th of July as a weak trough moves through, but the good news is it doesn't look like it'll be a substantial rainfall at this time.
It is muggy already, and we are on our way to the low 90s with heat indices around 100.
424 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Cooler and drier conditions are expected today and Monday.
For the rest of the week, a wet pattern will be in store, as a upper trough currently over western U.
Hot weather will also continue tomorrow as the upper ridge remains in place. It will begin to break down tomorrow as weaknesses move across it thanks to upper troughing across the Pacific Northwest.
103 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019 18Z Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicate a 594 DM H5 ridge remains centered over the Tri State area, leading to widespread clear skies. Temperatures will be slightly cooler tomorrow based on cooling temps aloft, but with the exception of northwestern zones do not expect any big relief from heat just yet. The pronounced upper level ridge currently in place over the region will undergo some weakening/de-amplification early this week, however, long range guidance continues to suggest that nominal re-amplification of this feature will occur by mid-late week -- holding the mid-latitude westerlies at bay over the Intermountain West, Northern Rockies, and Dakotas.
High temperatures should be in the low to mid 90s areawide, with peak heat index values ranging from 95 to just above 100 degrees. Cannot totally rule out a rogue shower with perhaps a rumble of thunder during the late afternoon/evening across the southern CWA, but given placement of midlevel anticyclone and very low coverage of anything that may develop, elected to maintain a dry forecast for now. Gosselin The upper-level pattern should slowly turn more zonal as the heart of the ridge gets shunted toward the southeastern United States.
1139 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Strong ridging aloft stretches across the Four Corners to the central Great Plains. Deep southwest flow above the ridge continues from the California Pacific Coast through the Great Basin into the northern High Plains.
An elongated mid/upper ridge was situated across the CONUS stretching from the Southwest states towards the Middle Mississippi Valley area. H85 temperatures are also progged to decrease with weak easterly mid/upper flow on the southern periphery of the mid/upper ridge supporting a subtle decrease in the recent heat. high temperatures are expected to range from the lower 90s along and east of the Flint Hills to the mid and upper 90s across our central KS counties. Highs will continue to trend down on Mon as the mid/upper ridge begins to break down across the area.
Concur with the deterministic runs which maintain a quasi- stationary upper trough over the region during the period.
Isolated diurnally driven storms will continue to be the main concern over the next few days as weak ridging strengthens over the southern U. The influence of the ridge will allow temperatures to warm Monday, with highs reaching the 90s for the majority of the area, and the mid to upper 90s for portions of eastern and central Georgia.
125 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019 A cold front pushes south into the area today.
322 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 A region of high pressure across Montana into North Dakota remains in place for this afternoon and tonight.
On Monday, generally zonal flow aloft and weak high pressure at the surface will exist.
Also expect highs on Monday to be cooler than what we've been experiencing, due to the potential for cloud cover and precipitation.
As moisture increases and 850MB temperatures cool, will continue slight decrease in maximum temperatures, while low temperatures remain mostly in the low 70s.
The upper level ridge will continue to move to the east. A cold front near the South Dakota border is expected to move to the south tonight and Monday, but will weaken as it moves into the area during the day on Monday. Temperatures will be a little cooler, but should still reach the 90s. The weak cold front continues to weaken as it drifts to the south Monday night.
/issued 1102 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019/ Upper ridge continues to build in over the region. Clouds in northern MS have kept temperatures slightly cooler this morning, so temperatures have been adjusted downwards to the south. Current temperatures are in the low to middle 70s with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s under partly cloudy skies. Morning lows should be mostly in the low 70s, with a few upper 60s near the Tennessee River. High temperatures should climb into the low 90s across most of the area with heat indices in the middle to upper 90s. Over the next few days, a broad fairly weak ridge will shift out of the Plains over the Eastern US.
1230 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 The upper level ridge remains in place across the central plains, but will begin to show the first signs of weakening today as the 500 mb heights will begin to fall some. Thunderstorms will again form on the periphery of the upper ridge across western Nebraska by late afternoon and evening, but these should again remain northwest of our forecast area. The upper level ridge will flatten out and a more zonal jet stream pattern is expected, which will result in slightly cooler and more normal temperatures for this time of year.
250 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 A ridge of high pressure aloft extends from NM northeast to the central Plains. To the south of the ridge, upper level low pressure resides over southern TX with a trough axis extending east of the low across the south central states. Scattered showers and storms have developed near the trough axis across central and southern AR and some of this activity will probably move into western AR and southeast OK in the east to southeast flow aloft.
654 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue across the southwest and south central tonight with a series of impulses aloft propagating along the high precipitable water axis. A region of high pressure across Montana into North Dakota remains in place for this afternoon and tonight.
Region remains under high pressure influence this afternoon with mostly sunny skies and southerly winds around 10 mph. Quiet evening is in store with only notable change being increasing high clouds by Monday morning as an upper low in southern Texas lifts northward overnight. While low level moisture profiles are pretty similar Monday afternoon compared to today, influence from the nearby upper low should increase low cloud cover by midday. Overall upper pattern begins to shift Monday evening as an upper low enters the Pacific Northwest, dipping the upper jetstream a bit further south, in proximity to a front progged to be the focus for thunderstorms throughout the week.
649 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019 The convective complex of showers and thunderstorms stabilized at least the central/eastern portion of the forecast area, but will be keeping a close eye on storms that develop over west/south central MN this afternoon and evening given the high instability that remains there.
Westerly winds increase tonight as the gradient increases between the ridge to the south and a trough passing to the north although no headlines expected.
Somewhat drier air and warmer temperatures will return early in the week.
With the mid to upper level troughing extending into the northern parts of the ArkLaMiss, this area seems to be the focus for the bulk of today's activity. Going into Monday, the low-level high pressure will begin to increase in strength over our area. Temperatures in the short-term will continue to be near normal with highs in the low 90s and lows in the low 70s.
847 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Cooler and drier conditions are expected today and Monday.
Mid-level ridging will build across the FL peninsula during the day on Mon with temperatures warming aloft.
There is some convection beginning to fire on the periphery of the dome of high pressure, well off to our northeast.
Weak upper low will approach from the south on Monday with the potential for scattered afternoon showers/ thunderstorms across SE OK/NW AR during peak heating. /Issued 250 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019/ A ridge of high pressure aloft extends from NM northeast to the central Plains. To the south of the ridge, upper level low pressure resides over southern TX with a trough axis extending east of the low across the south central states. Scattered showers and storms have developed near the trough axis across central and southern AR and some of this activity will probably move into western AR and southeast OK in the east to southeast flow aloft.
720 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019 A backdoor cold front will move south through central NC tonight.
1031 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019 An upper-level composite analysis this evening shows a deep layer mean anticyclone centered over Cuba, having shifted southwestward during the last 24 hours. Current Key West Doppler radar scans are void of precipitation across the service area, after isolated showers and thunderstorms and at least one impressive nonsupercell waterspout developed around the lower Keys before sunset. The low near-surface momentum and existing convective inhibition energy should work in concert to limit initiation of convective cells overnight. Occasional near calm conditions in Keys communities should allow air temperatures to drop into the lower 80s to near 80F overnight.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 93 74 92 / 10 20 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 92 70 90 / 30 20 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 71 92 70 90 / 30 20 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 89 66 86 / 40 10 10 40.