Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Broad dome of high pressure aloft and at surface continues to dominate the weather as it anchors across the Mississippi and Tennessee valleys. Dew points circulated around the High are into the mid and upper 70s in parts of SEMO-SWIL. While the High remains strong, it is sort of squashed to the south, as the front is brought into and across the Mid Mississippi and lower Wabash and Ohio valleys, where it effectively hangs along the lower Ohio river as the High aloft migrates to and centers of the SE U. Triple digit heat indices are possible today and may be approached again tmrw and Friday, as the heat maintains its grip under the influence of the High. Due to clouds/pcpn chances, some cooler readings in our northern counties, however, will begin to be felt by Friday.
The upper high pressure ridge does flatten out over the central plains and also allows the front to sag southeast. Tonight Through Friday High pressure remains the dominant feature over the south central and southeast United States. Under the high, showers were having difficulty developing and were isolated. As the near term progresses, a trough will surge through the northern Rockies and northern Plains.
Risk of severe weather is borderline with bulk shear on the low side (increasing to around 30 knots), but can't rule out a couple strong wind gusts this afternoon and evening. Frontal system moving through area Thursday Night will rebound northward Friday as the main 500 mb trough approaches Illinois.
The latest RAP guidance suggests that the low-level moisture transport will quickly veer to the east with even westerly 850 mb flow occurring over the southern forecast area by 7 pm.
941 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 Dry weather is expected to continue through the week with dry high pressure dominating.
/issued 345 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2016/ (Tonight and Thursday) The extension of the subtropical ridge into Texas will result in mainly dry and warm conditions for our area through Thursday. Clear to partly cloudy skies will prevail across the area overnight, with lows in the lower and middle 70s. Expect another warm day on Thursday under partly cloudy skies, with afternoon highs in the lower and middle 90s.
Temperatures will start to cool tomorrow as the onshore flow returns to our region and the ridge overhead begins to flatten.
1001 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2016 High pressure continues to build over western and central ND behind an exiting cold front. This will bring mostly clear skies to much of the region overnight with cooler temperatures. Still a few showers associated with the cold front moving through the Highway 83 corridor at this time but appear to be diminishing with increasing subsidence. Still a line of showers with the cold front moving through the central. with trough/boundary extended north into western North Dakota. Upper level analysis places trough pushing through western North Dakota with strong vort max lifting ahead of the main trough. With strong large scale ascent in place due to the aforementioned trough, storms will continue to develop and push east through the afternoon, with possibly a few lingering into the evening.
The highest probabilities are expected to remain across southeast KS where the best H85 moisture transport is anticipated. Low lvl moisture transport/310K isentropic upglide is progged to persist Thu-Fri supporting periods of showers and thunderstorms across much of the area through the period although the highest probabilities are expected to remain across southeast KS. More widespread storm activity including flash flooding and a few severe storms will arrive on Friday afternoon and Friday evening along a southward advancing cold front.
Bigger challenge will be timing the low clouds through the FA for the rest of the night.
In the wake of this activity some broken sunshine is occurring over the area allowing temperatures to increase into the lower and mid 80s. Surface cold front does work south through the area overnight and should take any precip/moisture to the south of the area for after midnight through the day on Thursday. This boundary is likely to stall to the south and retreat on Thursday night as the next round of height falls /currently rotating southeast through the Gulf of AK this afternoon/ moves into the high Plains. The height falls and associated strong cold front then move through the area on Friday with a good chance for showers and thunderstorms along the front. This will lead to another cold front and associated chances for showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the Tue-Wed time frame.
CWA remains on the western side of the Bermuda Ridge with the axis sliding slightly northward tonight across the northern part of the CWA. In addition, the CWA remains under the eastern side of an upper level ridge centered across Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley. Deep-layer ridging over our area will lead to unseasonably dry conditions that will persist through the short term period. Under clear skies, hot conditions will persist with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s inland and in the upper 80s along the coast.
Expect drier and warmer conditions to develop from west to east by Thursday afternoon and heading into the weekend.
/ISSUED 324 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2016/ Early afternoon moisture channel imagery and upper-air analysis reveal an elongated area of high pressure oriented from northeast to southwest across the region. In fact, dewpoints remain unpleasantly high this afternoon--in the low to mid 70s south of the Metroplex--which is resulting in some heat index values in the 102-105 degree range at this hour. High pressure will be in charge tomorrow. I've retained some silent 10% PoPs across our far northwestern counties to account for afternoon convective development across the Low Rolling Plains.
734 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2016 A weak disturbance will drop south across the region into tonight, before stronger high pressure builds back into the area from the southwest for the end of the week.
Will continue with the higher precipitation chances south of I-70 tonight and into Thursday morning. With the high moisture content in the atmosphere the potential for locally heavy rainfall exists, especially for areas along and south of Interstate 35 tonight. The front is then forecast to lift northward in the afternoon as a warm front.
Similar setup to yesterday with high pressure over the mid state this evening.
High pressure across the region will keep winds light and generally under 5 kts.
608 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2016 Upper level trough digs across the Northern Plains this evening and tonight. Main weather focus will be on the mid level trough and vort max swinging across central South Dakota this afternoon and through the forecast area this evening. Later tonight, the upper trough exits the region while weak ridging returns thursday morning. Rain chances increase late Thursday evening and into the morning hours of Friday as a deepening upper trough digs into the Northern Plains. Drier and cooler air will arrive for the upcoming weekend.
91 inches at KTWC per 00Z sounding), poor lapse rates and warmer temperatures aloft common with tropical systems has limited the most organized ascent along banded structures closer to the circulation center. /152 PM MST WED SEP 7 2016/ Drier southwest flow aloft will dominate the weather across southeast California and Arizona on Friday, leading to mostly sunny skies over the deserts and warmer high temperatures. The high temperature in Phoenix Friday is forecast to climb back to the triple digits with 100 degrees forecast - just barely below seasonal normal.
An persistent upper level ridge of high pressure remains over the forecast area this evening and will keep dry weather in place overnight. this moisture is making conditions feel warmer than raw temperatures. Dew Points are still mostly in the low 70s. The Midsouth has been on the Western edge of the High/Ridge keeping us warm and dry.
Temperatures are running warmer tonight and morning lows will end up several degrees warmer than this morning. The ridge will build stronger on Friday and temperatures will warm a little over Thursday's highs. The north end of the valley may top 100 degrees, while the temperatures in the Sacramento region will be in the lower to mid 90s thanks to influence from the Bay/delta.
With theta-e ridge over the region though, will maintain chance-range (30-50%) pops in the area of highest moisture. More breaks in the cloud cover though would mean a warmer forecast in places along that transition, so have the most confidence in our northwest just seeing mid to upper 80s and our southeast seeing lower 90s.
Strong subsidence aloft (seen by sharply drier air in water vapor satellite imagery behind the trof axis) along with a moderately strong surface pressure gradient will create a broad area of gusty winds tomorrow aftn through the central and Hiline counties (peak gusts of 30-40 mph over the plains and 40-50 mph in the higher terrain of western Teton/Pondera counties).
A disturbance moving across the Northern Rockies will sweep a dry cold front across the region Thursday night.
1044 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 After a busy afternoon of several rounds of thunderstorms for the Lower Keys and Key West, only a few showers were lingering near the Lower Keys and western Straits this evening. Forecast soundings show a surface wind from the northeast for tomorrow Thursday, which could mean another day with cloudlines along the Keys and consequently showers and thunderstorms developing over or near the Keys, and especially the Lower Keys.
1238 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2016 The strong ridge aloft over the MS/OH valleys will keep us much warmer than normal through the end of the week. Muggy air will stick around until a cold front passes this weekend.
Models have trended a little slower with cold front on Friday.
This moisture has been pulled northward along the eastern/southeastern edge of a broad trough located over the northern CONUS. While the circulation of Newton itself will likely get sheared apart and ingested into the broad trough the remnant vorticity could make an appearance in the area Thursday and Thursday night. After a lull in the action, especially north of the Missouri River the broad trough will eject through the area on Friday, dragging with it a cold front that will bring enough ascent to utilize the ample amount of moisture to cause another round of moderate to heavy rain across the entire forecast area. Potential flooding will depend on the location of the highest rainfall amounts.
653 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2016 High pressure was located over northwest Ontario at 1930Z with dry air, dewpoints in the lower to middle 50's, nosing into the Borderland to the north shore of Lake Superior. These showers were driven by a short wave trof lifting northeastward and upper level divergence from 250mb jet also lifting northeastward. A cold front sweeps through northeast Minnesota late tonight and northwest Wisconsin by 15Z/10am Thursday. Behind the front, high pressure will be building across the region. Cooler air will move in behind the departing wave Friday afternoon and night.
Friday and Friday Night: The timing of a Friday evening cold front seems to be coming into better focus.
More convection is expected later this evening across northeast MO and west central IL as a southwesterly low level jet ramps up over this area while a weakening cold front sags southward into northwest MO. The lows tonight will be about 10 to 15 degrees above normal. the QPF axis Thu night and into Friday AM has also shifted southward a bit along with the highest PoPs. Actual cold front will begin to push into the bi-state region late Friday afternoon and Friday evening.
Expect the next pacific cold front to begin to spread its influence across the region Thursday night as a modest LLJ begins to increase across the region. instability will rapidly diminish as cooler and more stable air infiltrates the region. This cooler airmass will remain across the region through the upcoming weekend.
High pressure will remain the dominant player in the weather game across Central Alabama through the forecast period. Slightly warmer low levels today will keep overnight lows a couple degrees warmer tonight, but overnight temperatures will still fall into 60s.
/issued 229 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2016/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): The elongated 500mb ridge across northeast Mexico into Texas will continue to provide subsidence across deep south TX tonight into Thursday. An inverted 500mb trough is expected to move into the western Gulf of Mexico Thursday night but any convection will likely be confined to the offshore waters of the lower TX coast.
750 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 Dry weather is expected to continue through the week with dry high pressure dominating.
For tonight, with subsidence from the upper high west of the fa counteracting the dry airmass over the fa, overnight temps around to a degree or two above seasonal expected (generally mid to upper 60s). For Thursday, the dry airmass works with the declining, but still present subsidence, from the weakening upper high to bring another day of above seasonal temps to the area. Highs in the low to mid 90s expected.
High pressure over the area has kept dry conditions in place with afternoon temps warming into the mid 90s.
Storms continue to move east with the cold front this evening. High pressure will then move over the region, keeping conditions dry for the remainder of the night period and through the day Thursday.
However, with the rich moisture still in place and an upper trough still placed to our west, will hang onto 20-30 percent chances through the overnight hours. This weak upper trough will remain to our west on Thursday, but remnants of Newton that have been absorbed by the trough should get sheared apart pretty readily.
Weak high pressure, in concert with an influx of drier air, should bring decreasing clouds to the region Thursday afternoon.
/ISSUED / Moisture moving around the upper high centered over NE Texas and NW Louisiana was helping to bring scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms to portions of SE Texas at mid afternoon. With the upper ridge overhead and the wave over the Gulf, am expecting slightly less coverage on thursday. As the easterly wave moves inland late on Friday and over the weekend, a cold front will work its way through the Southern Plains.
859 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 Update A slow moving cold front will trigger several rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the region through tonight. High pressure will gradually move in later Thursday into Thursday night leading to a slightly drier airmass.
H5 ridge is centered over TX today resulting in continued hot conditions across the region. Ridge is prog to dampen some during the day Thursday as an inverted trough shifts west across the Gulf of Mexico. continued subsidence from the ridge and dry air on the west side of the trough will result in continued hot/dry conditions across the vast majority of the CWA. Inverted trough axis remains to the east of the region Thursday night with mainly clear skies and dry conditions prevailing again.
A weak upper level trough of low pressure will move over Southwest California this weekend with near to below normal temperatures.
748 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 Skies have cleared under the influence of high pressure. This will allow for a ridge/valley split tonight along with some areas of dense fog in the deeper valleys. High pressure remains stationed just south of the region, with return W/SW flow pulling warm and humid air back into the region. Tomorrow, even with the same airmass in place, a cold front will begin approaching the region from the NW.
1036 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2016 Upper level trough digs across the Northern Plains this evening and tonight. Main weather focus will be on the mid level trough and vort max swinging across central South Dakota this afternoon and through the forecast area this evening. Later tonight, the upper trough exits the region while weak ridging returns thursday morning. Rain chances increase late Thursday evening and into the morning hours of Friday as a deepening upper trough digs into the Northern Plains. Drier and cooler air will arrive for the upcoming weekend.
High pressure will then move in providing calm weather through the weekend.
1148 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 The strong ridge aloft over the MS/OH valleys will keep us much warmer than normal through the end of the week. Muggy air will stick around until a cold front passes this weekend.
Still a few showers associated with the cold front moving through the Highway 83 corridor at this time but appear to be diminishing with increasing subsidence. Still a line of showers with the cold front moving through the central. with trough/boundary extended north into western North Dakota. Upper level analysis places trough pushing through western North Dakota with strong vort max lifting ahead of the main trough. With strong large scale ascent in place due to the aforementioned trough, storms will continue to develop and push east through the afternoon, with possibly a few lingering into the evening.
this moisture is making conditions feel warmer than raw temperatures. Dew Points are still mostly in the low 70s. The Midsouth has been on the Western edge of the High/Ridge keeping us warm and dry.
958 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2016 High pressure will prevail into this weekend.
Expect clouds to begin filling in tomorrow as a cold front approaches from the NW. Even then, the GFS only develops a thin ribbon of moisture, even though the upper high moves off the East Coast and allows an upper trough to provide support for the surface system.
908 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 The strong ridge aloft over the MS/OH valleys will keep us much warmer than normal through the end of the week. Muggy air will stick around until a cold front passes this weekend.
Thursday will be hot and humid, with scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, ahead of a weak cold front. Dry and cooler weather will return behind this front on Friday. There was a significant amount of low-level moisture advection ahead of this feature from the low-level southwest flow. Weak high pressure will be over the area Friday and Friday night. Cooler and less humid but high temps still 80 to 85. Decreasing clouds Friday as the cold front drops south.
High pressure over the region with relatively dry air in place will allow temperatures to once again fall into the middle 60s inland and around 70 degrees at the coast tonight. Temperatures may be slightly warmer on Thursday with highs expected to reach the lower 90s inland.
801 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 The strong ridge aloft over the MS/OH valleys will keep us much warmer than normal through the end of the week. Muggy air will stick around until a cold front passes this weekend.
1026 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 The strong ridge aloft over the MS/OH valleys will keep us much warmer than normal through the end of the week. Muggy air will stick around until a cold front passes this weekend.
1030 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2016 The Mid Atlantic remains between low pressure south of Long Island and high pressure to the southwest. The low will eventually move to the northeast late in the week as a weak boundary sets up near the region to start the weekend.
Tonight Through Friday High pressure remains the dominant feature over the south central and southeast United States. Under the high, showers were having difficulty developing and were isolated. As the near term progresses, a trough will surge through the northern Rockies and northern Plains.
Highs will range from the lower 90s across the Hill Country to mid 90s elsewhere.
/issued 502 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2016/ The main synoptic features across the region include a boundary across the northwest Bahamas that extends into the local Atlantic waters, an upper level low that continues to retrograde southwest across the western Florida straits and a tropical wave near western Cuba extending into the southeast Bahamas. While the upper level low should continue to the southwest and have less influence, with persistent northeasterly flow along the boundary this could allow for additional showers and some thunderstorms this evening and over night across portions of the Atlantic waters and metro areas.
522 PM MDT WED SEP 7 2016 Current surface map shows cold front moving through central South Dakota, with convection east of the forecast area. For tonight, high pressure builds across the western Dakotas with light winds and cool temperatures. Brief period of return flow on back side of high Thursday morning, with surface trof moving through western South Dakota Thursday afternoon. Gusty west winds will develop behind the trof. with some showers/isold storms developing in the wake of a departing cold front.
A broad upper level trough will remain across the eastern US late in the week, with a highly amplified ridge over the west coast.
Temperatures have fallen into the mid teens across the northwestern South Plains as expected with all but a few locations in the Rolling Plains below freezing. Another weak cold front will slide into the area around sunset which will do little other than reinforcing the cool airmass in place.
A cold front currently moving through the eastern portion of the area will be east of the area by 12Z. Lows tonight will be much cooler and range from the lower 30s inland to the mid 30s closer to the coast.
356 AM EST Thu Jan 26 2017 A cold front will push across the area and off the coast this morning into this afternoon.
A deep upper level trough will dig over the Great Lakes and linger through the weekend with a series of short waves moving across the area. The cold front that swept across the area Wednesday now south of the Ohio river. Secondary trough now across central Lower Michigan will swing across the forecast area this morning ushering in more seasonal conditions. Think there will be a lull this evening after the initial trough moves east with Lake Effect starting sometime tonight.
1147 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2017 After a blustery afternoon across the region with wind chill values in the lower teens, expect winds to slowly diminish during the early evening hours as the responsible area of low pressure continues to trek eastward. this much cooler airmass.
Elsewhere patchy freezing fog had formed over the columbia basin and this along with the showers will persist tonight.
1245 AM EST Thu Jan 26 2017 Low pressure will move through the Great Lakes tonight, bringing a return to more winter like weather through much of the period.
341 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 As the cold front continues to slide east southeast, rain is also ending. Highs today are going to be around 10 to 15 degrees cooler than Wednesday.
Overall pattern will be transitioning from cyclonic to anti- cyclonic as a ridge of high pressure over the west coast begins to influence the inter-mountain regions. That said, we will see a few lingering snow showers over the high country today as the remnants of cyclonic flow/trough slide to the southeast. Temps should not be too different than yesterday, with temps a little warmer tomorrow thanks to the building high pressure.
/issued 459 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2017/ Late this afternoon through tonight: Latest water vapor imagery indicates a well defined high pressure ridge, sitting stagnant over the eastern Gulf and Florida. This dry ridge is responsible for the clear skies, light winds, and lower humidity experienced this afternoon. High temperatures are topping out in the low 80s for the interior and near 80 along the coastal regions.
This trend is expected to continue overnight as the upper trough over the eastern CONUS gradually moves away from the region. For the high country.
1139 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2017 Early afternoon water vapor imagery indicates the closed mid- level cyclone was currently rotating through southern IA this afternoon.
339 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 A large scale trough will remain over the Great Lakes and Midwest extending well westward into the Southwest over the upcoming day.