Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1227 PM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021 A cold front will move through the area from west to east this afternoon into tonight. Expect some improvements by late in the TAF period as a cold front moves east through the state. A slow moving upper closed low to the W/NW early this morning will gradually move east by tonight. though this upper low will be slowly weakening over time as it moves closer to AR. A cold front will move east into the state by this afternoon and evening. the best chances will be this afternoon/evening ahead of the cold front. and along south of the aforementioned nearly stalled boundary as it attempts to lift north as a warm front. with some threat for tornadoes as well given the low level SHR and favorable curved hodographs. As the cold front pushes east.
In conjunction to diminishing winds, a cold front will move through the region shifting winds from southwesterly to northwesterly tonight into early tomorrow morning. As the main low wraps around and moves to the east tonight, along with some lift along the relatively weak cold front, some wrap around rain showers are possible for the far northern OK Panhandle and far NW TX Panhandle. Otherwise, main feature tonight will be the wind shift behind passing cold front with low temperatures ranging from upper 20s in the northwest to upper 30s in the southeast.
Toward and after daybreak tomorrow, this low will shift eastward across southern Kansas, allowing associated cold front to sweep over the region through the day. As stacked low shifts east-northeast across Kansas tomorrow, cold advection and wrap-around moisture will bring clouds across northern Oklahoma tomorrow, which if thick enough, could yield cooler highs that currently forecast.
In addition, a period of some light freezing rain/freezing drizzle is possible across northern areas for a short amount of time overnight however only light icing accumulations are anticipated.
Expect a broken line of SHRA/TSRA to develop ahead of an approaching cold front and impact the GLH/GWO area after 06z tonight. Overall, not much has changed with the forecast thinking with a broken line of showers/storms expected to precede a cold front that will approach late tonight.
High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern this afternoon, which has kept skies mostly sunny. High cirrus has been moving in from the southwest ahead of an approaching low pressure system. The high pressure over the CWA today will move off to the east tonight. A vertically stacked low currently over the High Plains will bring precip to the area starting late tomorrow afternoon. There's a bit of uncertainty regarding exact precip start time, since the lower levels will be very dry.
249 PM EDT Sun Mar 14 2021 High pressure continues across the area through mid week with a stalled front to the north of the state.
Mid-level cumulus will persist through this afternoon, but clouds will increase this evening as a cold front approaches from the west.
1152 AM MDT Sun Mar 14 2021 The infamous midlevel low pressure is currently located over southeast Colorado, and is expected to loop around on it's self before exiting on Monday. Moisture continues to wrap around the low and spread into our area from the north as the large-scale forcing persists. The warmer temperatures have limited the amount of snow accumulation in some of the lower valleys. High temperatures today will be similar if not cooler than yesterday due to the core of the low and expansive cloud cover expected. Even with that there will be enough warmth in the lower valleys for rain and or a mix.
1230 PM EDT Sun Mar 14 2021 A cold front will sweep south across Pennsylvania today, then Canadian high pressure will build into the region later today and Monday.
1145 AM EDT Sun Mar 14 2021 Dry, cool weather is expected through Monday in wake of a reinforcing cold front passage later today.
250 PM MDT Sun Mar 14 2021 The upper low continues to trek across the central portion of the CONUS, emerging onto the central Plains this morning. Temperatures have dropped to freezing in Rapid City, with ground accumulation beginning. The highest snowfall total so far has been from near Argyle in Custer County, with about 12 inches of snow. Some of these amounts will have to be adjusted through the evening, especially through south central SD as temperatures struggle to reach freezing.
1241 PM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021 Upper level low pressure over southeast Colorado quasi-stationary through about 09Z tonight before moving into southern Kansas Monday. /issued 335 AM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021/ Upper level low that brought several rounds of severe weather the past few days will finally move northeast of the forecast area today. Even with the downsloping winds, temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday due to the front that moved through the region and continuation of cooler air aloft. Short wave ridging will move overhead on Monday ahead of a small but strong low. This low will dive southeastward from northern California to southern California during the day on Monday.
302 PM EDT Sun Mar 14 2021 A cold front will sweep south across Pennsylvania today, then Canadian high pressure will build into the region later today and Monday.
The atmosphere will become cold enough to support a mix of freezing rain and sleet along and north of I-74: however, little or no ice accumulation is expected. Despite the ridging, weak mid-level forcing has triggered bands of very light rain showers across the KILX CWA this afternoon. While most of central Illinois will see rain, locations along/north of I-74 will cool sufficiently to support a period of sleet and perhaps freezing rain late tonight into Monday morning. While surface temps will drop into the lower to middle 30s across this area, the ground is no longer frozen, so any freezing rain that occurs will produce little in the way of icing.
255 PM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021 (Issued 255 PM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021) Tonight through Monday night: Dry, but breezy conditions continue into tonight as high pressure moves across the northern Great Lakes. An upper level trough associate with a closed low currently over eastern CO/western KS will slowly work its way northeast tonight into Monday. With temperatures around freezing there is a concern for some freezing light rain and drizzle which could cause a light glaze on surfaces increasing slickness concerns.
At the surface, an occluded front is located to the west of the region with a warm front to our south.
1041 AM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021 Showers and a few thunderstorms continue to sweep across eastern Oklahoma this morning in association with a Pacific cold front.
Otherwise, the surface cold front remains located across northern GA/AL this morning with some light precipitation along the H85 frontal axis across the central valley. Winds will remain light nly through Monday morning before the old cold front lifts back northward as a warm front favoring veered sly flow with low end gusting late in the period. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 62 51 67 55 / 10 80 70 40 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 66 48 67 50 / 20 70 70 40 30 Oak Ridge, TN 48 65 48 66 50 / 20 70 70 30 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 59 41 65 47 / 20 70 70 30 20.
238 PM EDT Sun Mar 14 2021 A light wintry mix of sleet, snow, freezing rain, and rain is expected to spread in from southwest to northeast late Monday morning through Monday evening.
Clouds will continue to increase through this afternoon ahead of an upper trough near the coast. Temperatures will be warmer ahead of the system, with highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
Cold front will move through after 00Z Monday and shift winds to northwesterly clearing through all TAF sites by 12Z. Winds behind cold front will be out of the northwest at 10-20 kts.
A large, slow-moving upper low will continue moving across the central Plains into the Midwestern States on Monday. These factors will serve to limit the impact of snowfall across the region Monday morning through midday, at which point we should see temperatures climb above freezing.
306 PM EDT Sun Mar 14 2021 Cool high pressure builds in tonight into Monday.
This is a result of an upper trough which is moving into the Pacific northwest. However, this trough is splitting and weakening as it moves inland, with a southern piece dropping south into northern California and a northern piece moving across the forecast are tonight into Monday.
618 PM MDT Sun Mar 14 2021 High pressure will build into the area later today.
Vertz The majority of the precipitation from the large low-pressure system centered over Colorado has remained south of the forecast area. The lower elevations in Sheridan County have occasionally had some light rain, but not much in the line of amounts. Through the overnight hours, as the low pressure continues to move east, along the Wyoming/Montana stateline there will be a chance for some light rain or snow showers, but it still looks like any snow accumulations will be fairly light, less than 2 inches. Monday will be a relatively quiet day, with temperatures a little warmer than today, but not much. Tomorrow a cold front will move across the area, and given the moisture that the low pressure has been bringing into the area, still expecting a decent chance overnight of see some shower activity to develop.
Surface ridging over the peninsula for much of the past week will gradually retreat into the Atlantic into mid week allowing surface winds to develop a more southerly component beginning Monday as frontal systems sags into the Southeast. /issued 249 PM EDT Sun Mar 14 2021/ High pressure continues across the area through mid week with a stalled front to the north of the state.
814 PM EDT Sun Mar 14 2021 Cool high pressure builds in tonight into Monday.
We can expect a lull in showers during the next several hours, but later night, a much stronger cold front will approach Middle Tennessee from the west. Also, LLWS will increase after 12Z as the low-level jet strengthens.
933 PM EDT Sun Mar 14 2021 A cold front will slide south of the region tonight as high pressure builds eastward from the Upper Midwest through tonight.
832 PM EDT Sun Mar 14 2021 Dry, cool weather is expected through Monday in wake of a reinforcing cold front passage.
H50 short wave energy will eject northeast into the Mid MS River Valley tonight, bringing an associated surface warm front with it.
534 PM MDT Sun Mar 14 2021 Satellite imagery shows a blanket of cloud cover across almost all of the forecast area this afternoon on the back side of the low pressure system centered over eastern Colorado. Radar returns indicate generally weakening showers from northwest to southeast as the low continues to nudge east.
The ridge axis is currently located over south central FL, and is forecast to continue to move southward over south FL later tonight. High pressure near the local waters continues to create light winds from the E/SE with speeds 10 KT or less across the waters.
708 PM EDT Sun Mar 14 2021 A light wintry mix of sleet, snow, freezing rain, and rain is expected to spread in from southwest to northeast late Monday morning through Monday evening.
Windy conditions will persist overnight across the higher terrain and along the east slopes of the central mountain chain and adjacent highlands, but will not require wind highlights.
301 PM MDT Sun Mar 14 2021 Satellite imagery shows a blanket of cloud cover across almost all of the forecast area this afternoon on the back side of the low pressure system centered over eastern Colorado. Radar returns indicate generally weakening showers from northwest to southeast as the low continues to nudge east.
The upper low continues to trek across the central portion of the CONUS, emerging onto the central Plains this morning. Temperatures have dropped to freezing in Rapid City, with ground accumulation beginning. The highest snowfall total so far has been from near Argyle in Custer County, with about 12 inches of snow. Some of these amounts will have to be adjusted through the evening, especially through south central SD as temperatures struggle to reach freezing.
Mild weather continues today and into tomorrow, with a cooler airmass moving into the area on Monday.
A high pressure cell over the western Atlantic continues to dominate our weather pattern. High pressure will keep things quite for the Florida Keys. The high pressure cell near our area will become reinforced by a stronger continental high moving off the eastern U.
758 PM MDT Sun Mar 14 2021 Mild weather continues today and into tomorrow, with a cooler airmass moving into the area on Monday.
/issued 227 PM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021/ Upper level low pressure over southeast Colorado expected to edge east later tonight and further east Monday. And the low-end windy to breezy conditions this evening will trend lighter late tonight. Monday will see the storm system track northeast and a low amplitude upper level high pressure ridge axis will translate toward the area during the afternoon.
847 PM MDT Sun Mar 14 2021 Clouds have increased over the area this evening ahead of the low pressure system currently along the Pacific Northwest coast. This low is forecast to dip southward into California/Nevada tonight into Monday, which will support light mountain snow and isolated valley rain for portions of southeast OR and southwest ID.
Also, with such low freezing levels, some hail approaching severe limits would not be out of the question as well.
High pressure will build into the area later today.
Dry air in the lowest several thousand feet will limit QPF but still think several locations will have measurable PoPs by sunrise tomorrow morning.
312 PM MDT Sun Mar 14 2021 Main question in the short term is no longer when will the snow start, but when will it stop? Tightly wound upper low over southeast CO this afternoon, with bands of moisture advecting into the region from east to west. On Monday, the upper low remains closed but weakens as it lifts into Nebraska in the afternoon. Northwesterly flow aloft will be over the forecast area with a ridge axis over the border of western CO.
Additional cloud cover wrapping around the cut off low looks to move into parts of Eastern Oklahoma overnight as the low stays on its slow eastward track.
351 AM CDT Mon Mar 15 2021 A slow moving cold frontal boundary is currently bisecting the area roughly from around Beaumont, TX through Fort Polk, LA to Monroe, LA and onward. Otherwise, only thing of note is maybe the possibility for some patchy fog in portions of SE TX where winds have calmed quite a bit on the cooler side of the front. Severe weather will be possible in the open warm sector ahead of and along an advancing cold frontal boundary, and as such the entirety of the LCH CWA is highlighted in a Slight to Marginal Risk area per SPC.
Precip will return to southern sections tomorrow morning as moisture advection returns as low-to-mid level winds shift to southerly behind the departing ridge axis. Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 51 68 54 67 / 60 70 40 30 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 49 68 50 66 / 40 70 30 20 70 Oak Ridge, TN 67 49 68 50 66 / 60 70 30 10 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 42 65 46 68 / 50 70 30 10 50.
453 AM EDT Mon Mar 15 2021 Temperatures are mainly in the lower 70s this morning across the Florida Keys with dew points not far behind (in the upper 60s). Changes to the forecast this cycle were mostly insignificant with the primary adjustment being a slower and weaker cold front later this week.
A strong area of low pressure was located over western Kansas this morning with rain and snow north of a warm front stretching from Iowa into eastern North Dakota and southwestern Minnesota. Strong high pressure was centered just northeast of Lake Superior and stretched westward across the Northland. As the low in the Central Plains lifts northeast today, precip will run into the high pressure and dry air and have trouble spreading into the Northland.
1008 PM PDT Sun Mar 14 2021 The arrival of a cold front tonight will bring the chance of precipitation to the Inland Northwest overnight into Monday morning.
/issued 233 PM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021/ An upper level low located over eastern Colorado will move into the plains later this evening. This upper level low brought severe weather to the area yesterday and high winds today. After the aforementioned upper lvl low kicks out of the area Monday we will return to weak ridging.
343 AM CDT Mon Mar 15 2021 A large upper low to our west over the central U.
The cold front remains off to the west. Adjusted the hourly values to show slightly warmer temps for the next few hours.
For tonight, overnight lows will fall into the lower to middle 40s.
123 AM EDT Mon Mar 15 2021 A light wintry mix of sleet, snow, freezing rain, and rain is expected to spread in from southwest to northeast late Monday morning through Monday evening.
356 AM CDT Mon Mar 15 2021 Cooler temperatures and a chance for light rain or snow in the south highlights the short term forecast. Early this morning, a powerful low pressure was moving through the Central Plains, with the northern fringe of wrap-around precipitation reaching southern North Dakota. However, brief periods of freezing drizzle cannot be ruled out later this morning, with forecast soundings showing some loss of ice aloft in the far south central. Tonight, the chance of snow returns in the northwest as a weak cold front begins to approach the area.
This is associated with a remnant piece of the departing upper low.
137 AM EDT Mon Mar 15 2021 Canadian high pressure will build into the region tonight and Monday, accompanied by mainly clear skies and gradually diminishing wind.
355 AM CDT Mon Mar 15 2021 A nearly vertically stacked system continues to spin across the High Plains this morning with an occluded front draped across the CWA along a CNK to MHK to LWC line. The better chances for any of these storms to become severe is expected to be east of the forecast area where instability and low-level shear is maximized ahead of the upper low.
225 AM EDT Mon Mar 15 2021 Dry, cool weather is expected through Monday in wake of a reinforcing cold front passage.
341 AM EDT Mon Mar 15 2021 High pressure wedges in from the north today, bringing a return to below normal temperatures. Rain chance will begin to arrive later tonight as low pressure system moves northeast from the Plains.
1108 PM EDT Sun Mar 14 2021 Canadian high pressure will build into the region tonight and Monday, accompanied by mainly clear skies and gradually diminishing wind.
314 AM CDT Mon Mar 15 2021 We get to enjoy a break in the windy conditions today as an upper level low ejects off to the northeast. The quick arrival of the second upper low also means that moisture will not have a chance to return this far west so rainfall will most likely remain to the east of our CWA.
1130 PM MDT Sun Mar 14 2021 Satellite imagery shows a blanket of cloud cover across almost all of the forecast area this afternoon on the back side of the low pressure system centered over eastern Colorado. Radar returns indicate generally weakening showers from northwest to southeast as the low continues to nudge east.
The low splits with one portion of the energy headed north into western SD, the other piece of energy shears off to the east toward the Mississippi River valley. With temps likely near or above freezing this afternoon, feel impacts from fzdz/dz will be minimal.
A cold front will move across the area this evening and overnight, combining with plentiful moisture provided by upper low the brought heavy snows to Wyoming yesterday.
Upper low spinning over western KS, with main lift focusing on the northeast quadrant as deformation zone breaks down over the western half of the CWA.
A strong area of low pressure was located over western Kansas this morning with rain and snow north of a warm front stretching from Iowa into eastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota. Strong high pressure was centered just northeast of Lake Superior and stretched westward across the Northland. As the low in the Central Plains lifts northeast today, precip will run into the high pressure and dry air and have trouble spreading into the region.
Cold front will push east and wash out from Middle TN into central MS.
with an upper level ridge extending from the Gulf coast states northward across the Mississippi river valley and into the northern plains. An upper level trough is anchored across the northeast states. In the lower levels, high pressure to our north is providing northeast/easterly flow and a surge of drier air across the area. It will be a battle between the decent forcing in the mid levels and the low level dry air advection, but I would think the forcing should be enough to overwhelm the lower dry levels. With that said, QPF amounts will likely end up on the low end of guidance given the degree of dry air in the low levels.
(Today and tonight) A deep surface cyclone centered over western Kansas this morning will drift slowly east/northeast, while weakening.
435 AM EDT Mon Mar 15 2021 A light wintry mix of sleet, snow, freezing rain, and rain is expected to spread in from southwest to northeast late this morning into this evening.
Warm air advection from a SW LLJ entices warm frontogenesis on the east side of the low along the MO River.
308 AM CDT Mon Mar 15 2021 Large upper level low spinning over southwest Kansas this morning will lift northward into the northern Plains by late this afternoon. Meanwhile another vigorous upper level closed low will move southeast to the central valley of California by late this afternoon.
At the surface, a Canadian cold front pushes southward into Montana. These system will combine to bring cooler temperatures, with snow in the mountains along the Continental Divide. Only isolated to scattered rain and snow showers will affect the lower elevations.
621 AM EDT Mon Mar 15 2021 A light wintry mix of sleet, snow, freezing rain, and rain is expected to spread in from southwest to northeast late this morning into this evening.
/issued 351 AM CDT Mon Mar 15 2021/ A slow moving cold frontal boundary is currently bisecting the area roughly from around Beaumont, TX through Fort Polk, LA to Monroe, LA and onward. Otherwise, only thing of note is maybe the possibility for some patchy fog in portions of SE TX where winds have calmed quite a bit on the cooler side of the front. Severe weather will be possible in the open warm sector ahead of and along an advancing cold frontal boundary, and as such the entirety of the LCH CWA is highlighted in a Slight to Marginal Risk area per SPC.
Multi-model guidance shows the H5 closed low across the Plains fractures into multi- vorticity lobes with one pivoting north and back across WY into NE this afternoon through Tuesday.
The 12z sounding continues to reveal a formidable subsidence inversion at around 850 mb due to a well-established broad ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea. Temperatures should have no problem climbing into the lower 80s this afternoon. The aforementioned ridge will remain in place through the middle of the week, which will keep the Keys temperatures above normal and generally rain- free. East-southeast breezes will freshen this afternoon and tonight as high pressure over the western North Atlantic strengthens.
The low splits with one portion of the energy headed north into western SD, the other piece of energy shears off to the east toward the Mississippi River valley. With temps likely near or above freezing this afternoon, feel impacts from fzdz/dz will be minimal. Lingering upper energy could bring some light pcpn to the northeast CWA this evening, while meandering upper low out west could provide for some light pcpn on Tuesday, mainly over southern 1/4 of the state. The pattern starts out with an upper low overhead but dissipating/washing out with weak upper flow and an anemic low level pressure pattern.
A north to northeast flow will develop elsewhere, keeping temperatures a few degrees cooler from what has been experienced the past couple days. Temperatures will rebound to a few degrees above normal by mid- week, as another high pressure builds over the Northern Rockies. Lowering snow levels behind a cold front tonight may bring light snow or a rain/snow mix to the valleys south of I-90, but no accumulations are expected for area terminals.