Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
615 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION FOR MIDWEEK. AND HIGH LVL MSTR OVR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE CONCERN FOR THE MRNG IS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS DYNAMIC COOLING RESULTING FM UPSLOPE FLOW MAINTAINS TEMPS AT. OR JUST BELOW FREEZING DESPITE OVRALL WARM ADVCTN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ALTHOUGH THE OTHER OBS AROUND THE COUNTY ARE WARMER. WL ENSURE A DRY AND WARM DAY OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AREAS. JET CORE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMTN WEST WILL DEEPEN THE MS VALLEY LOW. MOST RECENT TEMP GUIDANCE RMNS WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A FREEZING RAIN MENTION FOR NERN ZONES AND GARRETT COUNTY.
AND WITH WINDS STILL A BIT GUSTY IN WAKE OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
510 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RICH MOISTURE PLUME ENTERING OUR WRN CWA WITH A DEEPENING UPPER TROF OVER N CNTRL TX. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT EJECTS NEWD LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE BNDRY LIFTING NORTH INTO OUR DEEP E TX COUNTIES AND MOST OF OUR LA PARISHES. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. RAIN WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST BUT GUSTY NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS MENTIONED.
941 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND PERMIT LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND CROSS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 63 53 59 36 / 70 90 90 60 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 57 52 59 35 / 60 90 90 70 OAK RIDGE, TN 56 51 61 35 / 50 90 100 70 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 56 47 60 35 / 40 70 100 80 NC.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON.
High pressure at the surface will keep the region dry through this morning. Not expecting too much accumulation in our CWA tonight given the fact that precipitation will likely be a mix and surface temperatures should be a couple of degrees above freezing. With surface temperatures expected to remain above freezing over most of the area and the likelihood of precipitation being a mix, only expect 1-2 inches of snow generally north and west of a line from Fairfield Illinois to Cape Girardeau Missouri to Elsinore Missouri. The biggest factor affecting the impact of the snow ie its ability to accumulate will be antecedent ground and road temperatures which have been very warm lately and will remain above freezing through the event.
MODELS TENDED TO START OUT A LITTLE COLD ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. MAINLY A TOUCH WARMER. SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE TIMING CRITICAL FOR HOW WARM IT GETS. MAINLY A LITTLE WARMER.
EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY. COLD NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY DUE TO A DEEP AND COLD TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES. RIDGING REDEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A JET MAX MOVING INTO TEXAS WILL HELP TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVE IN. A STRONG SURGE OF WARMER AIR WILL LIKELY ARRIVE JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSING BY JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST. ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EVEN THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS. A LARGE AND INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED OVER OH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
543 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ALONG THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY.
HOW- EVER WILL KEEP POPS ON THE HIGH SIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN AS WE WILL STILL HAVE THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. NOT A LOT OF ISSUES WITH THE FCST AFTER TODAY AS THE BUILDING UP- PER RIDGE FROM THE WEST HELPS TO DRY AND COOL THINGS OFF BY WEDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE THUR SHOULD HELP TO REINFORCE THIS AIRMASS ACROSS SE TX THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE FLATTENING OF THIS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL COINCIDE WITH THE RETURN OF ON- SHORE WINDS BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD REMAIN LIMITED UNTIL MON OR SO. ECMWF WARMER THAN GFS BUT BOTH HINTING THAT ISO/SCT STORMS POSSIBLE MON AND TUES AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGHTENING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH AND WEST TODAY.
330 AM MST TUE FEB 23 2016 High pressure is beginning to develop over north central Idaho and western Montana particularly at the surface with temperatures cooling overnight. Patchy fog is possible this morning but yesterday's wind brought drier air so the chance for fog occurrence is low other than in the high valleys of north central Idaho. An overall high pressure ridge pattern is still forecast to be over the western US through this week. Daytime temperatures in north central Idaho and western Montana, while under this high pressure, are likely to be above normal.
DRY AIR IN PLACE COMBINED WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LACK OF SNOW COVER SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S TODAY. AND MAYBE A BIT WARMER IN A FEW PLACES. A WESTERLY BREEZE WILL MAKE IT FEEL A BIT COOLER. DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT WILL BRING A PUSH OF COOLER AIR SO TEMPERATURES EARLY WEDNESDAY MIGHT BE SOME OF THE COLDEST IN THE PAST 3 WEEKS. THIS IMPACT LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER BUT SUNNY SKIES PERSISTING. A LITTLE BIT OF LEESIDE TROUGHING BEGINS TO SHOW UP LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT INSUFFICIENT TO RAMP UP GAP FLOW WINDS.
752 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ALONG THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT AND LIFT BACK NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A DRIER AIR MASS.
335 AM PST TUE FEB 23 2016 High pressure will deliver dry and mild conditions through the rest of the work week. A strong upper level ridge is building over the region with a dry air mass.
444 AM MST TUE FEB 23 2016 A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS TODAY. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NORTHERLY BREEZES ELSEWHERE.
HIGH-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SCATTERED WRAP AROUND SHOWERS BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND A STOUT COLD FRONT.
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN ND WITH A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING EAST OF WAVE. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN BC.
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN NO MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW ACCUMULATION (A FEW TENTHS AT MOST) THIS MORNING. WHILE THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE E HALF OF THE NATION.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE U. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE STATE TO THE GULF WILL BEGIN TO EASE AWAY TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND A STOUT COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ONGOING AT FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF MIDDLE TN DUE TO THE INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. AS THE WARM FRONT IS PULLED THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM ALONE ESPECIALLY AS WE GET PAST MIDNIGHT AND THE UPPER LOW GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MIDDAY WEDNESDAY SO LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS AND SCATTERED THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
218 AM PST TUE FEB 23 2016 High pressure over the Sierra and western Nevada will bring dry conditions through the work week.
456 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 (Today and Tonight) Windy conditions are expected today, as the pressure gradient tightens behind a rapidly intensifying area of low pressure, which will be departing the region. With increased cloud cover and cold air advection on the backside of the storm system, highs will be cooler than yesterday, with temperatures topping out in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT AND LIFT NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A DRIER AIR MASS.
219 AM PST TUE FEB 23 2016 High pressure will deliver dry and mild conditions through the rest of the work week. A strong upper level ridge is building over the region with a dry air mass.
DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING (HIGHS LOWER 80S - SOUTHERN CWA) WILL FURNISH CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES TO INITIATE THIS CONVECTION. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THE AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY DRY DUE TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF ALABAMA.
652 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
559 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION TONIGHT INTRODUCING A CHANCE FOR RAIN. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TOMORROW INCREASING THE REGIONS RAIN CHANCES. THEN THIS LOW WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST TOMORROW NIGHT. STRONGER LOW LEVEL THETAE SURGE STILL APPEARS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL WELL AFTER 12Z FOLLOWING THE EVOLUTION OF SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. OR PERHAPS LOWER 50S IF A SLOWER THAN CURRENT FORECAST EVOLUTION MATERIALIZES IN REGARDS TO SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH.
326 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE LOW WILL SETTLE OFFSHORE TO START THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WINDS DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 40S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MID TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
WITH READINGS BACK UP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. STRONG KINEMATIC FIELDS SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KNOTS COMBINED WITH SOME DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
304 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL THIS AFTN UNDER LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING.
142 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD.
WITH LOWER BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS EAST OF THE HIGHWAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ON RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG A TROUGH/DRY LINE IN EASTERN COLORADO. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. ALTHOUGH DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH WITH A CUT OFF LOW FEATURE MOVES INTO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND BRINGS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AN UPPER LOW OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT THIS LOW TO MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND START SWINGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DISTRICT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING RAIN TO THE AREA.
A BROAD TROF IS OVER THE AREA AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ZONES. A BROAD TROF IS OVER THE AREA AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NCAL TONIGHT AND PUSH SOUTH INTO SCAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THINK RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE VALLEY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES S THROUGH THE DISTRICT. UP TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY BY THE END OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
403 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 A LOW PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SO EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO BE WARMER THAN TODAY. HAVE GONE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
At 2 PM, a loosely defined warm front extended from just north of Hays and Russel to just north of Newton. Storms that develop in this region are expected to become supercellular and track toward the east along the northward lifting warm front. Farther east, the local forecast area was cloud covered at 2 PM, still in the cool sector north of the warm front. Finally, there is some potential for a few hours of training cells along and just north of the warm front which could result in some localized heavy rainfall amounts or even some flash flooding. Upper trough's exit across northern Missouri brings a gradual end to precip Saturday.
BUT REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL REMAIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
356 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015 THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH TOMORROW. ON SATURDAY NIGHT A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH AT LOWER LEVELS.
HI-RES MODELS STILL SHOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A WARM FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THE TIME A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH TRAVELS OVERHEAD AND COMBINES WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH. GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN SETS UP OVER THE REGION. WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST.
AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING SPREADING EAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS MOVING WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS UTAH AND COLORADO.
239 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PASSES SOUTHERN WV BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
138 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 GRADUAL CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST.
/ISSUED 245 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/ UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAVE SOME POPS IN FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT GIVEN THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW.
THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND RAIN ON SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES REACHING ONLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. STRONGER LOW LEVEL THETAE SURGE STILL APPEARS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL WELL AFTER 12Z FOLLOWING THE EVOLUTION OF SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. OR PERHAPS LOWER 50S IF A SLOWER THAN CURRENT FORECAST EVOLUTION MATERIALIZES IN REGARDS TO SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH.
LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO KEEP MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL DRY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON UPPER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDING OVER IL WITH JUST CHANCE OF SPRINKLES WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S WITH AREAS ALONG THE WABASH RIVER NEAR 65F WHERE MORE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING IN EASTERN IL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY, ALLOWING A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM TO BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AFTER CHILLY EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL BE LOCATED NEAR KANSAS CITY BY 12Z SAT, WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING E/SE ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED THUNDER MENTION AFTER MIDNIGHT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STRONGEST FORCING ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
339 PM MST FRI APR 24 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS THE STATE.
208 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD.
111 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015 HAND ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S BENEATH THE THINNING LOWER/MID CLOUDS. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST.
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHEAST KS THROUGH NORTHWEST MISSOURI. EXPECTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT THAT COULD IMPACT SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA DURING THE EVENING AND COULD POSSIBLY MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THIS WARM FRONT HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE TODAY ACROSS S/CENTRAL LA BUT HAS SHOWN A GREATER TENDENCY TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS ONLY SHOWING CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000J/KG ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE SLOWLY RETURNING NORTHWARD WARM FRONT. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMED SOUTH OF OUR AREA EARLIER TODAY FORMED ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WHICH IS MEAGER AT BEST. THE LATEST WRF OUTPUT HAS SHOWN A TENDENCY TO LIFT THE WARM FRONT TOO FAR NORTH AND THUS ITS SOLUTION WAS DISCOUNTED. WITH THE TORNADIC THREAT LIKELY ORIENTED NEAR WHERE THE WARM FRONT SETS UP LATER THIS EVENING.
THIS IS THANKS TO A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT FROM THE COAST. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR MIGHT HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AS A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE DELTA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING SQUALL LINE.
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS LOW. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WORK SLOWLY TOWARD THE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 80S.
525 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT TO THE REGION TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 502 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/ A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR BAJA WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. BUT HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE A VORT MAX CROSSES THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD. THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS DEPART TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED WITH STRONG UPPER FORCING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING INTO THE AREA. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 71 55 75 62 / 10 80 90 40 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 70 51 72 58 / 10 70 90 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 70 51 72 58 / 10 70 90 50 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 45 66 53 / 0 30 90 70.
STRONG LIFT NORTHEAST OF ADVANCING WARM FRONT AND ELEVATED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY OVERCOME THE DRY AIR BY LATE AFTERNOON -- ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THEN, A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AFTER 22Z BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA AND ISOL TSRA ACTIVITY.
105 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD.
Warm front will hang up somewhere across Kentucky on Saturday and strengthen dramatically through the day. Expect temps to hang in the 50s across southern Indiana, while south-central Kentucky climbs solidly into the 70s, and a sharp gradient along the warm front somewhere in between. SPC's enhanced risk is more than justified for whatever portion of the area ends up in the warm sector, and backed surface winds along the warm front could also locally increase the tornado threat.
147 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE REGION SATURDAY. FORCING WILL INCREASE WITH CYCLO-GENESIS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE WARM FRONT WITH 0-1KM SHEAR OF 25KTS/0-1KM SRH OF 250-300 M2/S2. BUT CURRENT THINKING IS ISOLATED-SCATTERED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLATEAU. THEN MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION FOLLOWING WARM FRONT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
306 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEPARTING UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE VIRGINIAS, WITH E/SE FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL THREATS WITH THIS FIRST ROUND INCLUDE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE AND THE THREAT FOR BRIEF TORNADOES OCCURRING ALONG ANY CELL INTERACTION WITH THE PASSING WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT.
545 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT TO THE REGION TONIGHT.
LONG WAVE TROUGH AND LEADING SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE TX PANHANDLE WILL FAIRLY RAPIDLY MATURE INTO THE EVENING WITH DEEP FORCING INTO SE IA AND IMMEDIATE MS VALLEY SAT MORNING. SO EXPECT LOW/MID 50S FOR HIGHS WITH BRISK NELY WINDS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COOLER. 24/18Z LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHRA AND TSRA CHANCES AT SITES THROUGH PERIOD.
WITH WARM FRONT MOVG SLOWLY NWD ACROSS AREA. WITH PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH BRINGING LINE OF STORMS. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ALSO HAS SOME SURFACE SUPPORT AS AN ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT NEARLY STAGNATED FROM N TX. SNAKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR INTO SOUTHEAST LA. THIS WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS WELL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT BUT IS SITUATED AGAIN WITH STRONGER PERTURBATIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON JUST HOW MUCH WE ARE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE AND HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT MAKES IT INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH. ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING.
245 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015 UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAVE SOME POPS IN FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT GIVEN THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW.