Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
302 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Cold front departs tonight. A secondary reinforcing cold front will push through Friday evening.
1013 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Starting off the day pretty sunny again, but with the proximity of the low pressure system and cold temperatures aloft, cumulus have already been developing. Despite this, could still see some spotty shower activity through the morning and afternoon hours as the low pressure system and and attendant cold front travel through the region. A low pressure system over southern Manitoba will continue to translate eastward throughout the day today. Due to proximity of the low, a few spotty showers with some embedded thunder will also remain possible, primarily across northwestern Minnesota through the morning and early afternoon hours. Otherwise, upper level ridging will begin to build into the Plains on Friday.
1108 AM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Most recent upper air analysis shows the upper low situated over Manitoba, with upper ridging over The Rockies. At the surface, low pressure situated over the ND/MB border, with a weak cold front stretching down through northeastern SD to southwestern SD that will slide out of the area this morning. Mostly quiet and warm conditions are expected for the remainder of the week, as the upper ridge slowly slides east into the northern plains region.
Rain chances disappear on Friday as the upper level ridge builds back in over the Eastern U.
Rain chances will return to most of the region south of the Interstate 30 corridor by tomorrow afternoon, as easterly winds along the southern periphery of an upper ridge will bring a weak disturbance into the area.
An upper low will move towards the area offshore this week for a chance of showers today. A bit wetter on Friday as the low moves more inland across the area.
VFR conditions with weak winds less than 10 knots to prevail through the TAF period under strong high pressure both at the surface and aloft.
(The rest of tonight) A quiet night is on tap, with low temperatures expected to be a couple of degrees cooler than those seen this morning.
This occurs as the upper level ridge begins to break down ahead of a fairly large low pressure system off the Pacific Northwest coast. The dry air currently in place over the forecast will give way to increasing moisture in the southerly flow as the trough elongates slightly. This will put our region in the sweet spot for the moisture flow squeezed between the low to our west and the high to our east. As this low continues to slowly come onshore, a jet max will apporach our region starting tomorrow. With the ridge of high pressure positioned east of the area over the Plains and a trough of low pressure moving into the west over the Great Basin, sub-tropical moisture will continue to increase and move northward, directed across eastern Utah and western Colorado.
635 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 This afternoon/tonight: Near to above normal temperatures are occurring today as upper level ridging builds. Warm front to the south will slowly move north tonight. Training of cells is possible if the warm front moves slow enough, so local flooding is not out of the question. Also, if the cap should not hold for some reason, surface based convection could spin up a tornado along the warm front. 700 mb temperatures near the warm front are generally in the 14-15C range, so I am looking for this cap to hold into early evening. Elevated convection starts by late this evening and could last into the overnight north of the surface warm front along the 850 mb theta-e axis. This activity should remain west of the CWA as upper level ridging amplifies over the Plains.
605 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 (This evening through Friday) Afternoon water vapor imagery shows a weak upper low spinning near Wichita Falls. Meanwhile, the upper level ridge was centered over the lower Mississippi Valley. Lows will drop back down into the lower to mid 70s under mostly clear skies. The upper high will remain anchored to our north.
However, the upper ridge looks quite strong and capping will be difficult to overcome, so going low pops look good. TFJ High pressure today has made for mostly clear skies and warmer temperatures. The trend continues tonight with mostly clear skies and warmer overnight lows expected Friday morning. Winds will shift around to the east this evening and increase in speed as thermal trough pushes into central Montana.
This occurs as the upper level ridge begins to break down ahead of a fairly large low pressure system off the Pacific Northwest coast. The dry air currently in place over the forecast will give way to increasing moisture in the southerly flow as the trough elongates slightly. This will put our region in the sweet spot for the moisture flow squeezed between the low to our west and the high to our east. As this low continues to slowly come onshore, a jet max will approach our region starting tomorrow. With the ridge of high pressure positioned east of the area over the Plains and a trough of low pressure moving into the west over the Great Basin, sub-tropical moisture will continue to increase and move northward, directed across eastern Utah and western Colorado.
721 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Aviation --Quiet, Cooler, Comfortable Pattern-- Quiet weather pattern expected through much of the weekend as Canadian high pressure builds south into the GrtLks Rgn.
Latest guidance still shows increasing winds Friday afternoon and evening in and near the western Magic Valley as a deep upper low moves inland and toward us.
620 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 (Thru Tonight) A few sites are touching 105 degree heat index this afternoon with low to mid 70s dewpoints and temps in the low 90s. Thus, lows are expected to dip a bit cooler than previous nights into the low to mid 70s and provide some relief from the heat, a small victory but still better than mid 70s to near 80.
703 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Cooler and drier air will move into the area later tonight and continue into the weekend.
/NEW/ /Through Friday Evening/ A strong mid level ridge centered to our northeast will continue to provide hot weather to the region as we enter the weekend. There may also be some short-lived relief in a few locations Friday afternoon and evening in the form of isolated thunderstorms, courtesy of a easterly wave rounding the base of the ridge.
923 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 High pressure continues to push into the area with weakening winds and clearing skies.
Ensemble models are in great agreement on the pattern set with the High Pressure to our East and a long wave trough off in the North Pacific.
/issued 241 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022/ An upper ridge will remain over the Mid-South over the next 7 days.
846 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Showers and thunderstorms will end tonight, leading to drier and cooler conditions through the weekend after the passage of a cold front. Meager moisture will keep the region generally precipitation free, though an isolated storm may develop over the higher terrain of WV with frontal passage and upslope lift.
8 PM temps were running 1 to 3 degrees warmer than 24 hours earlier over all but northeast MS, where temps were a degree or two cooler. /issued 241 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022/ An upper ridge will remain over the Mid-South over the next 7 days.
929 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022 A stronger cold front will approach later tonight into Friday before passing through Friday evening.
950 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Multiple rounds of thunderstorms after expected today into early tonight, along and ahead of a cold front. A secondary cold front will push southeast through the state late Friday afternoon and evening, accompanied by isolated showers. Strong thunderstorm complex continues to slowly move SE across the CWA this evening, ahead of approaching cold front. Behind the convection we'll see quiet weather overnight, with warm overnight lows ahead of the main cold front. Minimal amount of spread among medium range guidance is supporting a high confidence forecast of dry and cool weather for the weekend, as high pressure and associated low-pwat airmass builds southeast across the area. This is a bit warmer than previous guidance, but still expect highs 5-10 degrees below average this weekend, despite a good deal of sunshine.
/22/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and tomorrow: Stout upper ridging will amplify across the Central Plains as a deep trough digs across the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin. This will leave the Lower Mississippi Valley on the eastern flank of the upper ridge with weak flow shifting from easterly to out of the north. The remainder of the overnight will be mild with temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Heading into tomorrow, a complex of thunderstorms is progged to be dropping down the eastern flank of the ridge with the greatest rain chances focused to our north across portions of Missouri, Arkansas and Tennessee. /TW/ By Friday night, broad anticyclonic motion propagating west from the influence of strong surface ridging will begin to break down over the ArkLaMiss region.
Weak, inverted trough, continues to push towards the Space/Treasure coasts from the northeast this evening. Dry conditions are expected for the overnight hours with low temperatures in the M- U70s, potentially L70s for normally cooler rural locations. Mid-level high pressure remains in place over the area. Weak, inverted trough dropping across the Space/Treasure coast waters this evening providing for some light shower activity moving towards the coast.
We'll also be looking at an increase in southerly winds, as strong high pressure strengthens over the Central Plains of the United States.
649 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Showers and thunderstorms will end tonight, leading to drier and cooler conditions through the weekend after the passage of a cold front. Overnight temperature will remain above normal give abundant storm induced cloud cover and delay in the arrival of cooler air as the actual cold front remains to the northwest.
530 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Key Messages: - Mainly dry through the weekend - Hot to start the new work week Ensemble solutions appear to be in good agreement in the overall pattern through the forecast period, with upper level ridge building over the Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley over the weekend and into the new work week.
Not much change to the forecast as a mid-level ridge builds over the Great Plains and high pressure builds over our region today and tomorrow. Tomorrow, afternoon high temperatures will be a few degrees cooler.
747 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022 A low level trough over the Western Atlantic waters will be moving southwest towards South Florida tonight. This trough will bring in some low moisture to the area late tonight allowing for a few showers and thunderstorms to develop over the Atlantic waters and work into the east coast metro areas late tonight into early Friday morning.
/Issued 210 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022/ Currently an area of mid to upper level high pressure sits over the southeast CONUS, but is part of a much broader area of high pressure that is stretched west all the way over the Desert Southwest. The center of this high pressure is progged to retrograde to the west over the week as well as increasing the upper level ridge in amplitude all the way to the Northern Great Plains.
A strong cold front will move across the region with a much cooler air mass moving over Central California on Friday, with daytime highs lowering to around 10 to 15 degrees below normal.
A warm front has moved north of Hays this afternoon so that any isolated storms this evening along this boundary should stay to the north. A t-storm or two could develop across the high plains near the Raton Mesa and venture into extreme southwest Kansas this evening. Upper level ridging and hot weather can be expected through 26 July and most likely through the end of June.
(This afternoon through Friday night) Mid-level water vapor satellite imagery from GOES-16 shows an inverted trough currently located across west Texas riding along the southwestern periphery of a broad subtropical high centered across southeast CONUS. This trough will provide enough lift to kick-off a few diurnally-driven thunderstorms, primarily across the higher terrain of far west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Persistent southeasterly return flow with breezy overnight winds will keep dewpoints in the 50s and 60s overnight and low temperatures in the low 70s both tonight and tomorrow night. By mid- day Friday, the upper ridge retrogrades westward and broadens across the Great Plains.
925 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Key Messages: - Mainly dry through the weekend - Hot to start the new work week Ensemble solutions appear to be in good agreement in the overall pattern through the forecast period, with upper level ridge building over the Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley over the weekend and into the new work week.
/issued 311 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): Not much change in the overall thinking of the previous forecast with the center of the expansive 500mb ridge to retrograde over Central Plains Friday. The reposition of the mid-level ridge allows for the winds to back slightly in a more east-southeast direction which may provide better support for a sea breeze. However, rain chances are still expected to be slim to none with limited and thin layer of surface moisture, subsidence provided by the strong ridge and the Saharan dust plume lingering overhead (albeit waning according to the NASA/GMAO Dust Aerosol Optical thickness map).
A Wind Advisory west on Friday and warmer highs highlight the short term period. Upper level analysis depicts a stacked closed low approaching the Hudson Bay and a trough moving into the Pacific Northwest. This afternoon, breezy conditions continued due to the lingering pressure gradient from the east, whose influence will gradually wane into this evening as high pressure moves east and the boundary layer decouples. On Friday, the Pacific trough moves through the west coast while the upstream ridge builds over the Northern Plains. A lee surface cyclone replaces the previous high and deepens over Montana and Wyoming. Expect clear skies and warmer temperatures Friday as 850mb temperatures rise as well as surface humidity as dew points increase towards 60 F.
Main concern will be damaging winds due to the high DCAPE, dry and steep mid-levels, and melting of hail below the high freezing levels. Ridging over the area will weaken as an upper wave approaches. Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 97 74 90 63 / 10 20 20 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 75 93 71 85 60 / 10 40 20 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 74 94 70 85 60 / 10 40 20 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 92 65 81 53 / 30 40 20 0 0.
The ridge has become well established over the area. Temps in the Yellowstone area will reach the 70s today with warmer temps possible in the warmer basin areas like near Mammoth. This will be the first of a few nights where temps will remain above freezing overnight, leading to increased concern for higher elevation snowmelt. The other concern over the next day or so will be elevated fire weather given increasing winds tomorrow as the ridge builds.
/22/ Tonight and tomorrow: Stout upper ridging will amplify across the Central Plains as a deep trough digs across the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin. This will leave the Lower Mississippi Valley on the eastern flank of the upper ridge with weak flow shifting from easterly to out of the north. The remainder of the overnight will be mild with temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Heading into tomorrow, a complex of thunderstorms is progged to be dropping down the eastern flank of the ridge with the greatest rain chances focused to our north across portions of Missouri, Arkansas and Tennessee. /TW/ By Friday night, broad anticyclonic motion propagating west from the influence of strong surface ridging will begin to break down over the ArkLaMiss region.
657 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022 A strong upper level high will slowly move westward through the weekend. The hot ridge will build back over our region through the coming week. Meanwhile, most guidance depicts a short wave trough embedded in the northwest flow aloft approaching the southern Appalachians in the afternoon with a sagging front arriving late. As of 200 PM Thursday: Upper-level ridge that has helped bring the heat and humidity this past week will retrograde over the weekend as a deep upper low sets up shop over the northeastern CONUS. Cooler and drier high pressure will build in from the Great Lakes region with northerly winds.
746 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Cold front departs tonight. A secondary reinforcing cold front will push through Friday evening.
A trough offshore will move inland through Friday for increasing showers, especially Friday afternoon.
1042 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 High pressure continues to push into the area with weakening winds and clearing skies. This period should remain fairly quiet, although there is a potential for dying ridge riders late Friday night (actually closer to Saturday morning). Friday will see the winds turn more east then southeast, but they will remain on the lower side (finally). Highs should be a little warmer than today, with most locations close to or above 80 degrees. At the moment, due to the low probability, the forecast for this period remains dry.
A strong stacked low pressure system drifting across Ontario today will impact the local weather into the coming weekend.
On Saturday the weakness moves into central Texas and this will end the chances for storms as the ridge aloft settles back into the region.
354 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Cooler and less humid conditions are expected today, although most locations will still remain slightly above normal for high temperatures this afternoon.
1028 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 (Tonight) Main center of high pressure has shifted east and is centered over South Carolina at this hour per surface analysis.
Model soundings suggest the lower half of the atmospheric column is too dry to support cumulus development, but this still yields highs ranging from the lower 80s in southwest MN to the lower 90s along the SD/NE border. Southeast winds stay up overnight with WAA and upper ridging in the top 1% of ECMWF Ens and NAEFS climatology building in.
1055 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 (This evening through Friday) The calm weather and hot temperatures continue again today into tomorrow, as the upper level ridge continues to shift westward and settles over the region.
434 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Areas of low clouds and valley fog over Northern and Eastern Pennsylvania early this morning will be swept clean by a cold front moving southeast from Lake Erie and an increasing westerly wind, gusting over 25 mph later this morning and this afternoon. Much cooler air and unseasonably low daytime humidity will move into the region for later today, right through the upcoming weekend.
1101 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Multiple rounds of thunderstorms after expected today into early tonight, along and ahead of a cold front. A secondary cold front will push southeast through the state late Friday afternoon and evening, accompanied by isolated showers. Strong thunderstorm complex continues to slowly move SE across the CWA this evening, ahead of approaching cold front. Behind the convection we'll see quiet weather overnight, with warm overnight lows ahead of the main cold front.
1236 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Cooler and drier air will move into the area later tonight and continue into the weekend.
Upper level ridge axis is now over the Montana North Dakota border and will continue to drift slowly eastward this weekend.
440 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Areas of low clouds and valley fog over Northern and Eastern Pennsylvania early this morning will be swept clean by a cold front moving southeast from Lake Erie and an increasing westerly wind, gusting over 25 mph later this morning and this afternoon. Much cooler air and unseasonably low daytime humidity will move into the region for later today, right through the upcoming weekend.
This afternoon/tonight: Near to above normal temperatures are occurring today as upper level ridging builds. Warm front to the south will slowly move north tonight. Training of cells is possible if the warm front moves slow enough, so local flooding is not out of the question. Also, if the cap should not hold for some reason, surface based convection could spin up a tornado along the warm front. 700 mb temperatures near the warm front are generally in the 14-15C range, so I am looking for this cap to hold into early evening. Elevated convection starts by late this evening and could last into the overnight north of the surface warm front along the 850 mb theta-e axis. This activity should remain west of the CWA as upper level ridging amplifies over the Plains.
Other isolated/spotty storms may be possible later today 3) A backdoor cold front will bring some relief to our eastern CWA this weekend with cooler and less humid air. A sharp longwave upper ridge will continue to build over the central CONUS and dominate the weather pattern for the next few days. Steep low level lapse rates, mlcape 2000-3000 j/kg and dry air in the lower levels (dcape values 1300-1400 j/kg in some cases) may support localized strong downbursts.
Tonight through Saturday night Not a lot of appreciable changes will be forth coming this morning as a robust upper level ridge will continue to dominate. Precipitation chances are somewhat better on Saturday as a weak cold front backdoors the state from northeast to southwest. While temperatures will be slightly cooler on Saturday, the bigger story will be the drier air moving in behind the boundary.
Tonight and Friday A very tight pressure gradient due to a departing low to the east and an approaching high pressure system will mean gusty west to southwest winds of 30 to 40 mph through early evening before subsiding to around 20 knots once the atmosphere decouples. Mostly clear skies are expected tonight as temperatures fall into the lower 50s across the north with lows around 60 across east-central Wisconsin. High pressure will then build in across the western Great Lakes on Friday, with mostly sunny skies expected across the region. Highs will be around normal for this time of year; ranging from the lower tom middle 70s across the north with highs around 80 across east-central Wisconsin.
Low pressure was situated over the Great Basin and into the Northern Rockies. An upper level low over the far eastern Pacific, and digging southward, resulting in strong upper level ridging over western portions of the Northern Plains. Today, the EPAC upper low moves onshore, pushing the downstream ridge axis into the central Dakotas by this afternoon/evening. As the upper ridge axis moves from central into tonight, near meridional flow develops over eastern Montana with a narrow ribbon of bouyancy developing.
140 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Cold front departs tonight. A secondary reinforcing cold front will push through Friday evening.
Northeasterlies that only slightly veer with time will fetch comfortably cooler/drier air in for the ensuing 48-72 hours, resulting in a welcomed return to highs in the 80s, and lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s. The main focus in the period will be the return of above average temps as a mid level ridge dominates across the central CONUS.
238 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Upper ridge will amplify across the central plains today then slowly shift eastward through the weekend.
300 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022 At the surface, high pressure sits in northeastern SD, with return flow moving into the region today. Upper level ridge is sitting over the northern plains, and will slowly move eastward over the weekend.
Main concern will be damaging winds due to the high DCAPE, dry and steep mid-levels, and melting of hail below the high freezing levels. McD Chattanooga Airport, TN 97 74 90 63 89 / 20 20 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 93 71 85 60 86 / 40 20 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 94 70 85 60 86 / 40 20 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 92 65 81 53 82 / 40 20 0 0 0.
301 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 A weak warm front is draped across Northern Kansas and Southern Nebraska this morning keeping the winds out of the south over the region. There is also a strong high pressure ridge building into the region complimented by a strong trough coming into the Pacific Northwest.