Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUNCH ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES EARLY THIS EVENING AND REACH THE EASTERN MONTANA BORDER BY 1 AM TUESDAY. DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS INTO A SMALL BUT STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MONTANA TONIGHT AND THIS SYSTEM MOVES RELATIVELY SLOWLY INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. BEHIND THIS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS RAPIDLY BUILDING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THIS SEQUENCE ALIGNS WITH THE APPROACH OF A JET AT 300MB WHICH SUPPORTS VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. ONE CONCERN IS THAT LIFT MAY KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM EMERGING BUT WIND SPEEDS AROUND THIS UPPER LOW ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE. THIS LIFT IS GOING TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW AND MODELS SHOW ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING OCCURRING TO CAUSE SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT.
Still, have kept some low PoPs later tonight across ern portions of the CWA where the low level and upper level forcing are better. As for temps, with the warm day today, rather late fropa for most of the CWA and relatively warm airmass behind the fnt, trended twd the warmer guidance for tonight. Britt (Today) Cold front is currently moving through northeast Missouri and west central Illinois. This is because the low levels are very dry per the latest RAP soundings. Upper trough supplying the ascent for the precipitation will move quickly east early this morning causing these returns to dissipate by 12Z which is depicted well by the experimental HRRR. Temperatures will be much cooler today with northerly winds advecting cooler air into the area.
358 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016 A SFC TROF EXTENDS FROM AN INTENSE SFC CYCLONE SITUATED OVER THE OH/MI BORDER WSW THROUGH CENTRAL MO & THE KS TURNPIKE TO THE TX PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE A COLD FRONT POSSESSED A SIMILAR ORIENTATION FROM THE IA/MO BORDER THROUGH SRN NEBRASKA TO ERN CO.
533 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016 TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
324 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016 Dry NW flow aloft and prominent low level thermal ridging will lead to unseasonably warm wx Mon/Tue with high temperatures around 10 degrees above normal. A mid level trof passing to the n early Wed AM will push a fast moving front (isallobaric high of 7mb/3hr) swd thru the CWFA result in windy conditions around 12Z-18Z. High temperatures Wed will be about 10-15 degrees cooler than Tue. Gusty se upslope winds Fri along with thickness cooling/clouds will keep temperatures cooler, even slightly below normal. Even though we are not issuing a watch for the plains we acknowledge the fire danger will be very to high to extreme and that there will be a prominent low level thermal ridge across SE NM/W PB.
THE TROUGH IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DIGS SOUTHEAST AND CARVES OUT A DEEP TROUGH IN THE ERN U.
354 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016 Surface trof has passed over much of the forecast area early this morning, although the well mixed air masses on both sides still bringing lows only down into the 50s north of the boundary so far. As warm advection returns with the low level jet overnight, better focus for showers and storms look to focus more north of the area. By Tuesday morning, a mid-level trough will be over the northern Rockies, with this trough deepening as it advances further east into the Northern and Central Plains through the day. Despite the cloud cover, the strong southerly flow should boost afternoon high temperatures into the low to upper 70s. Showers and thunderstorms should diminish from west to east during the evening and early overnight hours as the cold front progresses eastward out of the area.
209 AM PDT MON APR 4 2016 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH SOME COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING.
THE FRONT MOVES BY DRY OVERNIGHT AND RE-ESTABLISHES COOLER CONDITIONS.
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RENEWED RAIN CHANCES.
256 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016 COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH TODAY. FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.
A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM EMPORIA KANSAS TO CLEVELAND OHIO.
232 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
327 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016 COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MAKE PROGRESS INTO THE ROCKIES OVERNIGHT. A LEAD PIECE OF ENERGY TOPPING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS COULD HELP TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT. WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. BUT WILL LIKELY SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
1132 PM MDT SUN APR 3 2016 UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND BE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY.
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE TRANSLATES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST.
627 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016 COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH TODAY. FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE WEST SIDE LAST NIGHT AND IS NOW CROSSING THE EAST SIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AREA-WIDE TODAY AS COOLER AIR STREAMS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS END QUICKLY THIS EVENING, AND THEN A RIDGE BUILDS OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
552 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016 DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO AND THROUGH THE 30S TODAY AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA.
SFC OBS SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND FURTHER NORTHWEST CLOSER TO A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA LATER TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS KEEPING A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
321 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016 QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE LOW TEMPS. CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH WITH THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
418 AM MDT MON APR 4 2016 A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY WILL BREAK DOWN THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS BY THIS EVENING AS IT CROSSES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A H5 CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER MONTANA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES WILL BRING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST TUE NIGHT THEN MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON WED. MODELS SHOW A CLOSED OR CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE HIGH AND OFF THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST COAST BY WEEKS END. THIS LOW WILL PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION BEGINNING FRI. BUT MODEL PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW HAS BEEN PROBLEMATIC.
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT FINALLY HAVING PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL BRING PRECIP TO AREAS TO OUR NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
417 AM CDT MON APR 4 2016 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET AND DRY TODAY AND TUESDAY.
1009 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2015 ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2015 AT H5 CLOSED LOW OFF NORTHEAST CONUS WITH UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND RIDGING OVER THE WEST. UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH PRECIPITATION STREAMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST. WITH THE HIGHS TODAY HAVE BUMPED UP FORECAST TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY.
MODELS INDICATE WINDS SHOULD REALLY PICK UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WHILE A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
1100 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2015 ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2015 AT H5 CLOSED LOW OFF NORTHEAST CONUS WITH UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND RIDGING OVER THE WEST. UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH PRECIPITATION STREAMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST. WITH THE HIGHS TODAY HAVE BUMPED UP FORECAST TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY.
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. A PERSISTENT TROUGH LIES FROM THE OUTER STRAITS WELL SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS TO JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER KEYS.
255 AM CST WED DEC 9 2015 The mid-level trough axis that moved into the area yesterday was steadily exiting east of the area early this morning.
This afternoon, a mid level trough axis was steadily making its way east across the forecast area. With dry low level conditions in place today, the main feature with this passing trough is the associated mid-level clouds and shifting surface winds. Winds behind the progressing trough shift from the west-northwest and become light and variable overnight. Another dry day is in store for tomorrow with warmer than average temperatures. With only scattered high clouds forecast, southwest winds will help to bump temperatures into the low to mid-60s.
1242 AM EST WED DEC 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
316 AM EST WED DEC 9 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST TODAY.
308 AM EST WED DEC 9 2015 A FAST MOVING MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS TODAY.
The GFS along with the MAVMOS guidance were much warmer than the NAM/METMOS and had a pretty good handle on Tuesdays max temperatures.
1231 AM EST WED DEC 9 2015 CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST.
458 AM EST WED DEC 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN MOVE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
FAVORABLE MIXING SHOULD PUSH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
312 AM EST WED DEC 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE.
700 MB DOWNWARD MOTION FOR MUCH OF TODAY BEHIND THE TROUGH.
A WEAK COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE THIS EVENING.
THE CLOUDS HAVE HAD A TENDENCY TO THIN A LITTLE AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE 300MB RIDGE AXIS WHICH STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO EAST CENTRAL NEVADA.
100 AM EST WED DEC 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT WILL MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY.
154 AM EST WED DEC 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY OFF THE EAST COAST.
AHEAD OF THE STACKED TROUGH. MAY SEE SOME GAPS IN THE CLOUDS RIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH. SO NO FREEZING RAIN IS ANTICIPATED.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD A SHORT WAVE TROF. A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY. AND NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS DEVELOPING WEST OF I-65 DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE BUT THE LOW LEVEL TROF WILL DISSIPATE AND LEAVE MOISTURE IN THE AREA.
1123 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FRO THE WEEST.
1134 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 925 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2015/ 03Z SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS INDICATED A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. STUMPF FOG IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH IT IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL ENTER NW AL AROUND 15Z AND EXIT NE AL BY 21Z.
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR CAPE HATTERAS WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WITH SOUTH WINDS PREVAILING AHEAD OF A SURFACE PRESSURE TROF OVER NORTHWEST AR. /ISSUED 303 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2015/ SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO ARKANSAS TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY RAIN TONIGHT. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.
300 AM EST WED DEC 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY.
225 AM CST WED DEC 9 2015 A weak cold front extends south along the upper Mississippi river, into/across central MO at this writing. As the surface reflected boundary approaches from the west, strong PVA aloft carves a sharpening upper trof thru the lower OH/mid MS river valley.
252 AM CST WED DEC 9 2015 THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS FOUND JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS OF 2 AM. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AND GONE BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH A W/NW WIND BEHIND THE TROUGH. EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY CONCERNING THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST LATE THIS WEEK.
131 AM EST WED DEC 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
242 AM CST WED DEC 9 2015 A weak surface trof/wind shift line was tracking east across central Illinois early this morning without much in the way of sensible weather. In the wake of the upper wave and attendant surface trof, a weak ridge of high pressure will move across the area today bringing another pleasant day to central Illinois for the second week of December. Forecast soundings suggest afternoon temperatures to rise into the lower 50s north to the upper 50s over west central Illinois. Upper pattern to undergo transition through late week, as significant wave currently near 40N/155W closes off just southwest of British Columbia and digs a long wave trough southward along the Pacific Coast.
WILL SEE THERMAL RIDGE BUILD INTO THE STATE TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SPIRIT OF THE GOING FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO WITH A MEAN DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OFF THE HIGH PLAINS CONTINUING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF INDIANA WILL DRIFT AWAY THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS TOWARD CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF. GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WARM AIR ADVECTION THOUGH THE NIGHT AS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE FAILING TO SHOW STRONG FORCING WITH THE COLD FRONT AND BEST TIMING REALLY PUTS THAT THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY. WILL TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. BUT MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WILL TREND TOWARD A PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOON AND TREND TOWARD THE COOLER 3 HOURLY MAVMOS HIGHS IN CASE OF SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER.
1254 AM EST WED DEC 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OFF THE EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TRACKS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. THE INVERTED TROUGHING OVER CUBA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. ALSO TRENDED PRECIPITATION/WEATHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE INVERTED TROUGH LIFTS AWAY FROM EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S WEST OF INTERSTATE 4 AND COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY TO THE LOW 60S ORLANDO BREVARD COUNTY SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WITH AXIS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO NUDGE EAST AND PUSH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN HUNG UP OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. TROUGH ALOFT WILL DIG OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FRI- SAT WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GULF AND ACROSS FLORIDA. WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGING.
BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH A STRENGTHENING SEA BREEZE.
256 AM CST WED DEC 9 2015 A TROUGH IS EAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND.
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA.
1206 AM EST WED DEC 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
202 AM CST WED DEC 9 2015 A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO SET-UP AS SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AS WEAK UPPER-RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
359 AM EST WED DEC 9 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST TODAY.
WITH LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING FROM SOUTH FL TO OFFSHORE THE NE FL WATERS. SEASONABLY MILD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 70S WILL PREVAIL TODAY.
324 AM CST WED DEC 9 2015 CURRENTLY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS CROSSING THE REGION. A NARROW BAND OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WAS ADVANCING WITH THE TROUGH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND A RETURN TO SOUTH BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR.
VFR CONDITIONS STARTING OUT THIS TAF CYCLE AS LAYER OF CIRRUS CONTINUES EWD INTO THE REGION ALONG AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW IS SEEN AHEAD OF THE SFC TROF AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE W/NW WITH THE SFC TROF PASSAGE AND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 KTS. CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY AS THE TROF CLEARS. /ISSUED 1001 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2015/ MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE LOWER PARTS OF EAST TEXAS ACROSS LOWER PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.
344 AM CST WED DEC 9 2015 THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS FOUND JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS OF 2 AM. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AND GONE BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH A W/NW WIND BEHIND THE TROUGH. EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY CONCERNING THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST LATE THIS WEEK.
1135 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TO END THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH ALONG WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKY WILL PRODUCE A WARMER NIGHT THAN THE LAST FEW. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CLOUDY DAY EXPECTED.
317 AM CST WED DEC 9 2015 Dry and warm northwesterly flow aloft is expected through tonight behind an upper level trough moving through the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.
WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE IN THE LOWER LEVELS THAN LAST NIGHT. BANKING ON ENOUGH SUNSHINE FOR NOW TO MIX DOWN THOSE WARMER TEMPS.
MODELS AGREE ON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES OF WYOMING IN LOW AND MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. 850/700 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SUGGESTS ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE BETWEEN LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE.
TOMORROW LOOKS TO TELL A SIMILAR STORY WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOWER 90'S IN SOME PLACES IN THE VALLEY AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ALTHOUGH THE GFS A BIT FASTER WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY.
An elongated area of low pressure with a large area of convection is evident on satellite and radar imagery this afternoon about 100 miles south of Tallahassee. Overnight lows are expected to be in the low to mid 70s across the area.
231 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS STRETCHES FROM NEAR OF THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH WESTERN ARKANSAS TO A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN TEXAS. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER 90S. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SHEAR OUT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE LARGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARMER AS WELL. WITH AREAS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REACHING THE LOW 90S. POINTS NORTHEAST WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS WELL NORTH INTO THE HUDSON BAY REGION OF CANADA WITH THE MID- SOUTH SQUARELY UNDER ITS INFLUENCE.
DEEP MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND PRECIP WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO RAMP UP BEYOND 2 INCHES IN RESPONSE TO THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. ONCE AGAIN TODAYS FOCUS WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHICH IS FOCUSING DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS OUR REGION. WEDNESDAY EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS FIXED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE EDGE OF A MOISTURE PLUME AND WEAK THETA E RIDGE. EXPECT SOUTHWEST FLOW TO PICK UP AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS STILL SOME INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE COMES UP INTO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH.
THIS PATTERN (IN SOME FORM) WILL LIKELY BE REPEATED TOMORROW GIVEN THE NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW/TROF OVER SOUTH TX. 41 SMALL BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH GALVESTON BAY EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT S/W CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEARING CRP AT 09Z AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PERSIST.
233 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THIS WEEK. DIURNAL HEATING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO REMAIN CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHERN OHIO AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA WILL DRIFT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT KEEP THE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHICH KEEPS THE POTENTIAL FOR 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES GOING FOR THE LOWLANDS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING OVER OHIO. STILL DON/T SEE ANY TYPE OF FOCUSING MECHANISM AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. CONTINUED WITH THE WARMER SIZE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS AND DRY GROUND. UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE ON THE LOWER SIDE.