Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
251 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017 GOES-16 channels 8, 9 and 10 continue to indicate a robust mid/upper trough moving into the Rockies early this morning while KGLD WSR-88D shows a cold front beginning to impact northwest Kansas. This mid/upper trough is progged to emerge over the Central Plains states late in the day and into the overnight hours. As it does, the cold front will become the focus for deep moist convection. storms are expected to be east of the area by 12Z Sun with a cooler and drier airmass in their wake.
The cold front will move quickly through the area today and be south of the fcst area by around 00Z this evening. Rather dry air will invade the OK and TX Panhandles behind this cold front. The combination of clear skies, dry air, and light winds late tonight into early Sunday morning will result in temperatures falling into the lower to middle 30s across much of the OK Panhandle and western half of the TX Panhandle.
System out west (mid level trof) will continue to dig before ejecting northeast across the region on Saturday. Ahead of the trof, there'll be a strong LLJ that will keep winds healthy overnight, thus mild lows. Meanwhile, pressure rises west of the cold front will likely bring some gusty winds to the western CWA late tnt and Saturday, but for now they are forecast to remain below wind advisory criteria.
A strong low-level jet (40 to 50 knots) will develop tonight in advance of a mid/upper trough advancing across the western US and a cold front moving into the Dakotas overnight. The cold front will move into the central and north-central MN in the late afternoon and early evening. Showers and even a few thunderstorms will linger into Saturday evening, as a strong cold front and upper level trough moves across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
253 AM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Currently, very windy conditions continue along the I-25 corridor as a stout cold front has tracked across the region. Lee troughing develops rapidly after 03z tonight and low level gradients tighten dramatically. Went ahead an upgraded the high wind watches to warnings as this seems pretty clear cut for the wind prone areas such as Arlington, Bordeaux, and the South Laramie Range. The question is how far east will the high winds extend? GFS soundings for Cheyenne between 12 and 18Z Sunday are pretty impressive with 50+ kt flow just off the surface. It will be mostly sunny with much cooler temperatures today with highs ranging from the low 40s west to around 60 over the Panhandle. Elevated winds Sunday night before a backdoor cold front moves into the area from the northeast.
551 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017 A tightening pressure gradient between a high anchored along the East Coast and a cold front in the Plains will produce strong S/SW winds across central Illinois today. The Plains cold front will slowly push eastward tonight, triggering showers and thunderstorms overnight.
With a cold front well to our east now, focus will shift to our next precipitation maker later this afternoon and evening.
152 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 A large and persistent area of high pressure at the surface and aloft will remain over the eastern CONUS through the upcoming weekend.
431 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017 (Today and Tonight) An upper level trough and associated cold front will be the main focus in the short term, with the potential for some severe storms later this evening. A progressive upper level trough will move east from the Rockies and into the Plains this afternoon and evening. Associated cold front is still on track to enter the Big Country early this evening, then surge south across the forecast area, exiting far southern sections after midnight. A better chance for storms will be this evening ahead of the cold front as it moves south across the area. Lows tonight will range from the lower 50s across northwest counties, to the upper 50s over far southeast counties.
A deep trough is prog to carve into TX and the Plains tonight and send a strong cold front southward across Texas. Weak and variable winds are expected overnight with more of weak west flow developing by late in the night as the base of the trough approaches. and veering winds in the lower levels should scour moisture out of the area. Warm to hot (by late October standards) temps are expected today with warm conditions persisting on Sunday as cooler air should not arrive until late in the day.
456 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 A large area of high pressure centered over Pennsylvania and eastern Virginia this morning will drift slowly to the east over the next few days, providing us with a spectacular Autumn weekend to enjoy the fall foliage that will be near its peak color. A high-amplitude and cold upper trough will become carved out across the eastern U.
118 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 High pressure will shift off to the east through the weekend.
Easterly flow will continue over the region as the remnants of the frontal boundary draped over the Bahamas and Cuba give way to high pressure building over the southeastern United States. A surge of moisture from the tropicals will round the ridge and push across southern Florida, the Florida Straits, and Cuba today into Sunday, with a warm front developing as the moisture surges northward.
Otherwise, the cold front which will sweep across our area during the day is presently still located over west central SD. High temperatures will be around 60 through south central SD and the James River Valley, with upper 60s east of I-29, before falling into the lower 60s by afternoon. By tonight the front will be east of our area, with clearing skies and dying winds as weak high pressure builds into the region. The high slides quickly to the east by Sunday with a southerly flow returning to the region.
401 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017 A low pressure system centered in southwest MB will steadily shift eastward through the day with surface trof and closely following surface cold front dragging across eastern North Dakota this forenoon and northwest MN through the afternoon. Gusty south winds will slow just a bit as the trof axis passes any area but then sharply turn and increase from the west.
Seeing high clouds stream into the area with the ridge axis now to the east of the area. The higher heights aloft associated with the ridge will keep temperatures well above normal today. A milder night is forecast for tonight as southwesterly winds throughout the atmosphere finally begins to advect in warmer temperatures and higher dewpoints into the region.
Winds may decrease some ahead of a cold front during the mid morning hours, but will increase again out of the north as the front moves through the area. Vigorous upper level short wave trough over the northwest U. A cold front will push through the region Saturday afternoon and early evening bringing north winds in the 20 to 30 mph range with higher gusts. Temperatures may fall into the lower to mid 30s by early Sunday morning causing another round of frost in the western and central Panhandles. A large upper trough will get carved out across the eastern U. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge will build across the western U. This will put the Panhandles in a northwest flow aloft which will tend to bring an occasional cold front through.
The snow level rising from 3500 feet this morning to over 7000 feet by Sunday morning will limit the impact of snow on roadways to the highest mountain passes and above.
Cold air behind yesterdays front will remain over the area today, followed by significantly warmer temperatures Sunday.
332 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 The main weather feature through the short term will be high pressure anchored across the central Appalachian range. As this high shifts east, southerly flow will be on the increase bringing ample moisture northward into the region. This will lead to less fog development tonight and slightly warmer low temps. Therefore, the forecast challenge lies with the impact to the highs and lows temperatures from the increased southerly flow. High pressure over the area will keep mostly clear skies over the area with the exception of some cirrus creeping north from the south.
A deep moisture plume and strong westerly flow will push a warm front across the interior NW today.
High pressure over the mid-Atlantic United States overnight will move to the east and reach the Atlantic waters tonight.
344 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Strong high pressure will shift offshore this weekend.
Warm airmass initially but good cooling behind the system so snow levels come down quickly as trough axis moves through later in the evening. This appears to be mainly a terrain driven event so little to no precipitation is expected over the lower elevations. A spotty shower around the time of trough passage cannot be ruled out but the odds of seeing measurable precip at any one spot are pretty slim. Saturday morning, the cold front associated with this system will spread south through the plains. The cold front will deliver a much cooler airmass to the region than in previous days. Afternoon highs will be at least 15-20 degrees cooler than today and about 5-10 degrees below average for this time of year.
651 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 High pressure centered along the Atlantic Coast will keep dry weather over the Ohio Valley today and Sunday.
No big changes were made to the grids for the remainder of today, except to update to current trends, and minor tweaks (mainly a tad cooler) in the higher elevated spots.
853 AM PDT Sat Sep 9 2017 Low pressure will develop off the Southern California Coast through Sunday, then lift slowly north through midweek.
High risk of rip currents will continue along the lower Texas coast today through tonight as long period swells across the western Gulf of Mexico continue to move towards the coastal sections.
717 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017 High pressure with dry and cool weather dominates through the weekend. Per model guidance and current trends, have fog lifting into stratus across much of the area, especially the lowlands, beneath a shallow post frontal inversion.
627 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2017 138 AM CDT A pleasant fall weekend is in store as anexpansive upper ridge across the upper Midwest will spread east, while only slowly progressing through the Great Lakes region. KMD 138 AM CDT A weak upper disturbance across the northern/central plains will attempt to push into the upper ridge, but attempts appear pretty futile such that little more than a few clouds will slowly spread into the area from this feature to start the week. The upper ridge looks to also keep the remnants of Hurricane Irma from making headway northwest to the region, but there is some guidance that brings some higher clouds into northwest Indiana.
608 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2017 VFR conditions will again prevail this pd, as dry high pressure at the sfc continues to dominate the wx pattern. A rather benign weather pattern is in store for the Four-State Region as dry northerly/northwesterly flow prevails for the extended UA ridging across the South Plains promoted northwest flow aloft across the Four-State Region this morning.
Afternoon warming into the lower to middle 80s with dew points mixing out into the upper 50s. A relatively cool night in the 70s with Sunday morning T minimums forecast in the lower 60s (north) to middle 60s (coastal). /ISSUED 607 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2017/ Cannot rule out a few drops to MVFR or IFR from patchy fog this morning at UTS and CXO where dew point depressions are the lowest, but otherwise expect VFR conditions to prevail with a few cirrus around FL250 moving overhead. /ISSUED 331 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2017/ Southeast Texas remains dry with little temperature change (below normal readings) over the weekend as high pressure stays in control while Hurricane Irma works her way north- ward across the far eastern Gulf and Florida Peninsula area.
/Issued 532 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017/ High pressure and quiet conditions will prevail through tonight, but the outer rainbands from Hurricane Irma may begin impacting the far southern CWFA by late Sunday afternoon. The higher terrain of northern GA will also see gusts to around 30mph, while the lower elevations across the far north should stay in the 15 to 25mph range.
Ridging will be the name of the game today, with a good deal of sunshine expected, but we'll have to keep a close eye on some really pesky and weak frontogenesis that has plagued the area the past 24 hours, resulting in periods of localized enhanced cloudiness. Simply put, the coming work week looks pretty amazing from a weather standpoint, with broad low level ridging intact from New England back through our neck of the woods supporting a continued dry forecast along with plentiful sunshine much of the time (well, except at night. Couple the low level pattern with broad ridging across the region overtop of Irma's remnants, and the stage is set for a continued gradual warmup along with those great cool/comfortable nighttime lows.
Upper low circulating over central/eastern South Dakota continues to push scattered mid level clouds near Dickey County at this time. With a cold front pushing east tonight and through northwestern ND by mid morning Sunday, winds shift to the west/northwest and as a result, a lighter concentration of smoke will filter into the western ND, per NDFD Air Quality Forecast and HRRR near surface smoke and vertically integrated smoke (aloft).
1125 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017 High pressure with dry and cool weather dominates through the weekend. With heating, stratocu clouds have formed in this low level moisture being lifted, but these are expected to decrease somewhat this afternoon as drier air aloft mixes down, leaving more sunshine than cloud. Per model guidance and current trends, have fog lifting into stratus across much of the area, especially the lowlands, beneath a shallow post frontal inversion.
With clouds and winds remaining elevated tonight, have raised forecast lows into the low and mid 60s. Quiet weather pattern expected through much of the mid and long range, with upper level ridging expanding across the western and central US.
627 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2017 High pressure over the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys will continue to push east tonight. Low temperatures over central Missouri will be a couple of degrees warmer due to some mid level cloudiness over the area tonight.
The water vapor bands show a mostly mid- and upper-level disturbance diving southeast across Arkansas this morning, but this feature will likely only bring a few clouds to the region this afternoon as it interacts with a broad trough over much of the eastern United States.
959 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017 High pressure over the Great Lakes will help provide dry and quiet weather conditions for the Ohio Valley over the weekend.
and Sunday A large high pressure system will be in charge of the weather during the weekend, providing mostly clear skies, light winds and dry weather to the western Great Lakes region. Temperatures are expected to bottom out in that area in the lower to middle 30s with a few more hours of radiational cooling before warming shortly after sunrise. Close to Lake Michigan highs are expected to be in the lower 60s. Overnight temperatures are expected to fall into the lower to middle 40s, with a few middle to upper 30 degree readings possible across far north-central Wisconsin. Another day of warming is expected on Sunday as the high shifts off to the east, allowing for return flow on the backside of the high.
706 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2017 Tranquil weather will continue today and tonight under the influence of high pressure. The high, which is currently over the Great Lakes Region, will drift southeast through tonight. The Mid Mississippi Valley will be on the western periphery of the high and this will produce a light east-southeast flow across Missouri and Illinois today.
The upper level flow is west-northwesterly, as high pressure remains over TX with ridging extending northwestward into the northern Rockies, set up between low pressure over central CA and over the far northeastern CONUS. At the surface, a trough of low pressure lies across the High Plains, while a stationary boundary extends from far western SD into east central NE. Kept PoPs on the lower side 20-30%, some models like the NAM/GFS have more coverage of precip, while others like recent HRRR/RAP runs have very little going on through the day. No notable changes were made to forecast highs for today, ranging from the lower/mid 80s in the north to upper 80s in the far southwest.
1014 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017 High pressure will keep the region on the cool and dry side through the weekend.
From radar we currently have a squall moving along the Lower Keys at 66 knots toward the west- southeast.
High pressure and a dry airmass with precipitable water well below an inch continue to maintain quiet weather over the ArkLaMiss. At the surface, high pressure centered over the OH will remain wedged into the lower MS valley with a continuation of the dry northeasterly wind flow. Expect high in the low 80's and lows Sunday night falling into the upper 50's near 60.
High pressure ridge aloft will remain over the region and Colorado with a light westerly flow aloft.
Water vapour had upper low spinning over KD07. Few strong TSRA continue this morning ahead of upper low.
712 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017 High pressure will keep the region on the cool and dry side through the weekend.
Dry weather will continue in the short-term as upper level ridging remains in place across Texas this weekend. Although, ridging exists aloft, the northeasterly flow will ensure cooler dry air remains in place for the weekend. Passing high clouds are limiting the amount of radiational cooling tonight and therefore lows are a few degrees warmer than previous nights. Lows tomorrow night will be a few degrees warmer as well as the main effects from the cold front are well in the past.
High pressure remains over the lower Mississippi Valley while Hurricane Irma slides closer to the Florida Keys this morning. Aloft a trough is over the eastern portions of the country and this continues to drag in a cool and dry air mass to the north central gulf coast.
In the low levels, the gradient is responsible for a light southeast breeze. As the day progresses the upper low will continue to generate weak convective showers though coverage will decrease. The low levels remain relatively dry and BUFKIT sounds are not unstable. As the upper low moves east and the low level flow decouples, we see a 30 to 40kt low level jet develop across the east. Winds associated with the low level jet will mix out in the morning Sunday, along and east of the James valley, with initial gusts into the 30mph range. The core of the strongest winds migrates east during the day as a weak trough moves into western South Dakota with lighter winds.
However, along this ridge axis, there remains a sharp thermal/moisture gradient.
Temperatures will be cooler this afternoon and again on Sunday with many locations in the upper 70s and low 80s.
Dry and warm conditions will prevail as high pressure and a dry airmass remain across South Texas. Temperatures will gradually increase during the days, but overnight lows will still be noticeable cooler due to mostly clear skies and dry airmass.
/issued 415 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2017/ (Today and Tonight) Stubborn upper level ridging will continue to control the weather across west central Texas. The ridge will actually strengthen just a hair, but this will do little more than keep temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees for highs, and keep the area dry. As surface winds stay out of the southeast, low level moisture will increase slightly, which will result in lows remaining slightly warmer than the past few nights.
1155 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017 Unseasonably strong high pressure will extend into North Carolina from the north through Sunday night.
Increasing southeasterly winds today and for most areas a bit warmer and sunny today. There is a compact but well developed upper low in NW South Dakota which will move east today and drift into the southern RRV later tonight. T-storms with this feature confined to a small area south of the upper low and it is this small area south of the upper low which is most prone to have precip as it moves through. Thicker mid clouds with this feature over the far east and southeast fcst area while north and northwest of the low airmass remains quite dry. Quite warm as well with thermal ridge at 850 mb into NE ND Sun aftn.
The quasi-stagnant pattern will also keep temperatures similar each day, with afternoon high temperatures at seasonable levels in the lower to middle 80s.
09/12Z TAF CYCLE VFR conds wl prevail acrs AR thru the PD as high pressure persists over the FA. Look for daytime highs in the lower/mid 80s and nighttime lows mainly in the 50s.
As a result kept going temperature forecast in place, however if the dissipation is less than forecast would expect temperatures a few degrees cooler than forecast. Weak cold front still on track for tonight. High amplitude upper ridge was in the process of gradually breaking down. Hot temperatures in the lower to mid 90s will occur today with a near record high in Billings. A cold front will push across the area late tonight and early Sunday. Winds will increase behind the front, but it looks like to strongest winds will be in the morning, coinciding with the highest humidity levels.
Will have scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area today in advance of the storm with the highest chances inland this afternoon.
We made a few minor changes to the forecast to slightly increase the chance of precipitation this afternoon and evening over the higher terrain and to limit the coverage of thunderstorms to isolated.
Temperatures are warmer this morning than yesterday due to increasing low level winds associated with Irma.
/issued 238 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2017/ Ridging across the south central CONUS is expected through the weekend with respectable lows (one a tropical cyclone [Irma]) well to our west and east. This will help evolve the mid-level flow a bit as we remain on the eastern periphery of high pressure. The MJO hints at a cold front here in about two weeks.
Water vapor had upper low spinning over KD07. Few strong TSRA continue this morning ahead of upper low.
Early this morning, high pressure was centered over the Great Lakes. A back door cold front off of Lake Michigan aided in keeping winds up and slightly lower dewpoints across the eastern zones. High pressure through the short term period will be the primary weather driver. Easterly winds associated the back door cold front will continue today. As a result, high temperatures of yesterday will likely be the highs today. Lows will be slightly warmer tonight across the area.
Lighter winds and lower waves are then expected into the upcoming week under high pressure.
/Today through Tonight/ Quiet weather persists across the state currently with warmer conditions than the past few nights along as winds have been higher.
1055 AM CDT Sat Sep 9 2017 Sfc ridging will remain in place today from the OH Valley SW into Cntrl TX, maintaining dry NE winds across the area. The short term progs continue to suggest that this low level moisture will continue to gradually advect W today as well, possibly reaching NE LA this afternoon.
AS of 08z Saturday morning an upper level ridge axis extended from the TX panhandle, northwestward into southern MT. A warm front extended from eastern NE into southwestern SD. The increase cloud cover across the area Saturday night should lead to slightly warmer temperatures Sunday morning with lows in the low 60s. Surface winds shift to easterly as Irma comes onshore somewhere over the southeast US, with the western ridge nosing over the high plains into the late week. Chances for rain may increase later in the weekend as an upper trof moves into the western and northern US and returns southwesterly flow over the plains.
An upper level ridge was over the Northland this morning with a trough just off to the west over the Northern Plains. The upper trough will move east tonight into the Red River Valley. As the upper trough moves over Minnesota Sunday clouds will increase, especially over the western half of the Northland. Highs will be warmer than today and be in the seventies for most areas.