Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
548 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019 A cold front will move through the region today, fueling the development of showers and thunderstorms from this afternoon through tonight. The front itself is not expected to reach the forecast area until around 00z, but a weak prefrontal trough could help support some warm-sector-development across far southeast NE and far northwest MO a few hours prior to frontal passage. Initial thunderstorm development along the front may wane as surface instability diminishes during the evening, then a re- invigoration of convection is expected along the elevated cold front prior to midnight, likely occurring around or perhaps just past the KC metro area.
06Z surface data has a warm front running from Lake Huron into southern South Dakota. North of the front dew points were in the low to mid 60s. South of the front dew points ranged from the mid 60s to the lower 70s. Peak heat indices this afternoon will be in the lower to middle 90s. Most of the area will have to wait for the approaching cold front before seeing any rain chances. Some marginally severe hail may be possible once the freezing level aloft lowers. Tonight the cold front will slowly move across the area. Monday: Cold front will be moving across the cwa ending the showers and a few storms from west to east with the passage of the front. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s.
534 AM MDT Sun Jul 28 2019 Northern stream trough is phasing with the old SW CONUS impulse, with the bulk of precip beginning to shift out of the fa. Cool front will push into the area later this morning per the advancing northern stream trough, supporting much drier air into the region, esp across far NW SD. CAPE ridging expected into the far western FA over NE WY in the afternoon as a weak impulse pushes into the region forcing Pos theta-e adv. Overall, mean ridging is progged for the central Rockies through most of the week. However, the FA will remain on the northern edge of the ridge with ridge topping impulses likely supporting isolated to scattered TS at times, with temps at or near seasonal norms.
1000 AM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019 Southwest flow around weak high pressure centered over the southern Appalachians will continue the seasonably warm and humid weather today.
420 AM MST Sun Jul 28 2019 High pressure will build over the Four Corners area by the start of the week bringing an increase in thunderstorm potential.
/issued 234 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019/ (Today and Tonight) The doldrums of Summer continue across West Central Texas for the next twenty-four hours as a lazy ridge will remain parked across the Desert Southwest. Much of western and central Texas will remain on the east side of this ridge.
A summer cold front is working through the area this morning. A disturbance crests the weak ridge over the area Monday afternoon, generating thunderstorms over southwest Montana, spreading into south central portions of the state late afternoon, and into southern portions of SE Montana Monday evening. Concerned 700mb temperatures may be too warm to keep convection going off the higher terrain and into the lower elevations, but latest progs have H7 temperatures in the +9 to +11 range which is borderline capped so didn't deviate too much from NBM precipitation chances. High pressure remains centered over the four-corners region, while monsoonal moisture advects north into the area. As weak energy moves through the northern periphery of the ridge, it will tap the moisture and bring chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms to the area through the period.
High pressure aloft remains over the state bringing fair skies and warm temperatures this morning.
Some convection may linger near the coast for a few hours due to some light westerly steering flow with mid-level troughing still upstream. However, the onshore low-level flow will continue to push the sea breeze farther inland focusing the higher chances of showers and storms over the interior from mid afternoon through the evening hours.
Despite the showers to the west, a cold front moving through the area will continue to push the showers east and out of the area this morning with a few lingering showers possible this early afternoon. High temperatures on Sunday will be slightly cooler with highs ranging from the mid 80s across north central Nebraska to the lower 90s across southwest Nebraska.
The compact low pressure system, sliding eastward through the southern Canadian prairie will be responsible for pushing strong northwest winds through our area today. Thanks to the cold front, high temperatures today will struggle to reach above 80 degrees for many locations. Monday through the rest of the week, the weather pattern will feature a back-and-forth between hot, high pressure ridges and the occasional quick passing, subtle chance for brief thunderstorms here and there.
30" by this evening and if we fire any convection today, it would be confined to the highest terrain in southwest Colorado. Upper level ridging will make a subtle shift east tonight and Monday. Increasing potential for another monsoonal surge as upper level ridging shifts eastward, opening the gate for a nice push of moisture from the southwest.
942 AM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019 A weak, dying cold front will push into the region late today.
At least scattered thunderstorms are possible along the boundary by mid-afternoon though mainly east of a line from Lansing to Charlotte as mid-level ridging approaches from the west (e. On Monday a cold front will be pushing southeastward through the CWA during the afternoon and evening.
The synoptic pattern will remain mostly unchanged through the next couple days, with 500mb high pressure centered over Arizona and troughing across the eastern United States.
548 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019 The upper level pattern that has remained over the region through most of last week will hang around for one more day with ridging over the western CONUS and the Ozarks on the eastern edge of the ridge. The from will move rather slowly through to the east with showers and storms lingering through much of the day Monday and helping to keep highs in the lower to middle 80s for the most part.
504 AM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019 A weak, dying cold front will push into the region late today.
649 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019 A weak cold front is expected to cross the local area today. While the cooler airmass will likely not reach the area until Monday. while the cooler air will lag the cold front and likely not reach the area until Monday. Expect an area of high pressure across the southwest to be the predominant feature through the extended periods. as the EC extends the southwestern ridge into the plains towards the middle/end of the upcoming work week and the GFS retrogrades this ridge south and west of the local area. think the cooler and slightly more active pattern of the GFS is more plausible.
Not expecting much in the way of convection due to the overall subsidence in the region, however the ridge is weakening a little each day and we're likely to see a little more coverage than we did yesterday.
715 AM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019 A weak, dying cold front will push into the region late today.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 67 90 70 / 20 10 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 66 88 68 / 10 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 89 66 89 69 / 10 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 61 88 63 / 10 10 10 10.
Highs on track to reach into the lower 90s across the area.
255 AM PDT Sun Jul 28 2019 A large area of high pressure will maintain widespread triple digit heat across the San Joaquin Valley, West Side Hills and Kern County Deserts through Monday, with the highest temperatures expected today.
407 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019 Slightly warmer conditions can be expected today with continued south-southwesterly surface winds, and only scattered diurnal cumulus clouds the afternoon along with some thin, high level clouds to hinder full solar insolation.
246 AM PDT Sun Jul 28 2019 Hot and dry weather continues this weekend under high pressure. There could be some heat related issues for vulnerable populations, but nothing too bad considering the time of year and that temperatures will cool overnight into the low/mid 60s allowing for some relief.
A cold front will approach the state from the NW late in the period, thus VCSH are included at KHRO and KBPK beginning at 11z. At the surface, high pressure over the TN valley and low pressure developing over the Northern Plains will allow southerly/southwesterly winds to persist across the entire state. Temperatures on Sunday will be in the upper 80s to the lower 90s with heat indices in the lower to middle 90s. Cloud cover will begin to increase in coverage ahead of an advancing cold front moving towards the region later this afternoon into the evening. While some strong storms are possible, do to forecasted SBCAPE profiles of 1500-3000 J/Kg, organized severe weather is not anticipated due to a lack of vertical wind shear and overall weak forcing associated with an ill-defined cold front.
735 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019 Today-Mon: Overall pattern continues to evolve as has been expected over the past 2 nights with a strengthening mid-upper cyclone, which at 3 am was just crossing the Alberta/Saskatchewan border, surging east across Saskatchewan & Manitoba today, then ENE across the Manitoba Ontario border late tonight. The attendant trof would push a cold front across most of KS late tonight as it surges SE across the Upr/Mid MS Valley with the front pushing into South- Central KS late tonight then SE KS Mon morning. Mon-Thu: The ENE-moving upper-deck cyclone lifting across the Southern tip of Hudson Bay Mon evening would enable the STRONG upper-deck high that has been camping out across extreme SW U. & Baja CA to begin spreading slowly NE with the attendant ridge advancing as far NE as the Dakotas by Wed night.
328 PM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019 Cool and dry conditions will gradually give way to more humid and warmer conditions mid and late week as a slow moving cold front inches toward the area. High pressure continues to dominate for the next 36 hours with dry air in place and little change to the upper flow pattern.
1209 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019 A cold front will move through the region today, fueling the development of showers and thunderstorms from this afternoon through tonight. The front itself is not expected to reach the forecast area until around 00z, but a weak prefrontal trough could help support some warm-sector-development across far southeast NE and far northwest MO a few hours prior to frontal passage. Initial thunderstorm development along the front may wane as surface instability diminishes during the evening, then a re- invigoration of convection is expected along the elevated cold front prior to midnight, likely occurring around or perhaps just past the KC metro area.
Have been unable to produce much in the way of shower activity across the area today likely due to the energy from an upper level low over the SE states remaining just too far north and east of the area.
239 PM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019 A weak, dying cold front will push into the region through tonight.
For now, the low 80s (measured/estimated) temperatures contrasting with mid to upper 90s inland.
To the southwest, a dome of high pressure was centered near the southern AZ/NM border. At the surface, a cold front extended roughly from central ND to western KS.
At 2 pm temperatures in far northwest Iowa are only in the lower 70s, and 3-hour CAPE changes are negative, which is highly unusual for this season. Early in the week a large dome of warm high pressure will build across the southern/southwestern U.
A weak cold front is expected to cross the local area today. While the cooler airmass will likely not reach the area until Monday. while the cooler air will lag the cold front and likely not reach the area until Monday. Expect an area of high pressure across the southwest to be the predominant feature through the extended periods. as the EC extends the southwestern ridge into the plains towards the middle/end of the upcoming work week and the GFS retrogrades this ridge south and west of the local area. think the cooler and slightly more active pattern of the GFS is more plausible.
Surface analysis this afternoon places a ridge of high pressure over the Appalachians then back into the Southeast United States. Southerly flow on the back side of high pressure has resulted in slightly higher dewpoints across the Mid-South with temperatures as of 2 PM CDT in the upper 80s to lower 90s across most locations.
1233 PM MDT Sun Jul 28 2019 Northern stream trough is phasing with the old SW CONUS impulse, with the bulk of precip beginning to shift out of the fa. Cool front will push into the area later this morning per the advancing northern stream trough, supporting much drier air into the region, esp across far NW SD. CAPE ridging expected into the far western FA over NE WY in the afternoon as a weak impulse pushes into the region forcing Pos theta-e adv. Overall, mean ridging is progged for the central Rockies through most of the week. However, the FA will remain on the northern edge of the ridge with ridge topping impulses likely supporting isolated to scattered TS at times, with temps at or near seasonal norms.
Upper level forcing with a trof from the Upper Midwest to southern Plains will approach and should be accompanied by convection approaching our western CWFA (SEMO/SW IL) toward 12z. A surface cold front at 00z Tue will be from near KORD-KSTL-KSGF, with broad scale mid level forcing, moisture and instability continuing to result in convection.
For a good part of the evening, we'll remain in the rather quiet warm sector of a low pressure system tracking across Minnesota toward Lake Superior tonight into Monday. A trailing cold front will become active upstream of Wisconsin this evening and push east. This is primarily due to the better forcing staying up north with the low, coupled with negative diurnal trends. The rain should push east of Wisconsin Monday morning with the cold front sweeping through by early afternoon.
A weak cold front was pushing south this afternoon, although there really is not much in the way of cooler air behind this front. Plus, the low level frontogenesis will be weakening as the front slowly dissolves.
Heat and humidity will carry into the evening and overnight, as the cold front continues to make progress toward Illinois. Lows tonight will remain mild in the low 70s under steady, albeit light, southwest winds. Radar returns are showing up well ahead of the cold front across Iowa, but they are mainly virga as dry air at various layers of the column dissipate the rain. While there will be a high likelihood of some rain at most locations on Monday as the cold front pushes across Illinois, there will be breaks in the rain through the day, and rainfall amounts look to remain less than a quarter inch. That would cause high temps to rise above the current forecast highs, but have opted for slightly cooler and cloudier for now.
High pressure then slides back in and keeps conditions quiet and pleasant for the middle to end of the week. Mainly dry conditions expected overnight as heights slowly fall as a trough, currently over the upper Midwest, moves into the western Great Lakes. A pre-frontal trough is expected to enter the western counties by the late morning, move across the area throughout the day, and exit our NW Ohio counties during the evening hours. Convection is expected to be ongoing along this trough as it moves into the area. Models are in decent agreement of deep layer shear being in the 15-25kt range, but there is a narrow zone ahead of the trough where 0-6km bulk shear could reach 30kt.
Forecast models are all showing the potential for an active night with even the high resolution convective allowing models indicating the chance for additional storm development after midnight.
These conditions combined with instability over the region had allowed for a few diurnal thunderstorms to develop within the higher terrain locations of far Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
Just to the W, PoPs again increase ahead of the approaching cold front.
228 PM MDT Sun Jul 28 2019 An upper level ridge of high pressure will slowly build over the region during the first half of the work week. As a result, expect warmer air to move back into the region, with afternoon highs generally a few degrees above normal the entire week.
Due to the cloud cover and precipitation chances on Monday, highs will be in the low to mid 80s. As for low temperatures, it will be another mild night tonight with lows only in the low 70s, then much cooler Monday night with lows in the upper 50s to upper 60s.
Again overall pattern supports it like today with no ridging and still plenty of moisture for storms.
Temps tonight will be a little warmer than the last few nights as a light southerly breeze will keep the boundary-layer a bit mixy. During the day on Monday the gradient will tighten as the cold front approaches from the NW. Updated at 233 PM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019 A broken line of showers and storms ahead of a weak cold front will begin moving through the region Monday night.
304 PM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019 A weak, dying cold front will push into the region through tonight.
0 inches with little subsidence from the upper levels due to weakness in ridging. Temperatures may not reach the low 90s in spots due to storms and cloud cover.
259 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019 Weak convection should increase in coverage and intensity this late afternoon and evening along and ahead of a weak cold front. Looks like the timing of the mid-level trough axis and the associated cold front will be slower to clear the area compared to some previous numerical model runs and therefore have hung onto chances of precip into the evening. Numerical models have been quite consistent with keeping late tonight after midnight dry due to subsidence behind mid-level trough and associated cold front.
Not much to discuss this morning as a ridge of high pressure and associated drier air has settled into the Great Basin.
1124 AM MDT Sun Jul 28 2019 18Z TAF CYCLE Drier in the mid levels as the upper high center begins to relocate over nrn NM.
A minor secondary cold front will turn winds easterly tonight which will increase low level moisture and cool temperatures to near normal or slightly below normal. Clockwise flow around the upper level high centered over southern Colorado and northern New Mexico will result in a southwest flow aloft and help transport monsoon moisture into northern Colorado.
Slightly higher mid level moisture and cooler mid level temps were allowing for some very isolated showers to develop from northern Arkansas into southern Missouri, generally along the Missouri/Arkansas border region. A mid level ridge/high pressure cell will anchor itself across New Mexico through most of the week, this will put the area in a north to northwest mid level flow pattern which will lend itself to the possibility of disturbances riding the flow and into the area.
Similar to past afternoons, showers and tstms are developing over the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and southeast Colorado as of this writing.
The center of an upper high meanders in and around the four corners area of the desert southwest.
A line of showers/thunderstorms that developed across central North Dakota associated with forcing from a mid-level trough has caught up to the narrow axis of a favorable severe environment.
Pressure gradients begin to tighten Monday night as the broad ridge over the area begins to buckle a bit supporting leeside troughing through central Montana.
150 PM PDT Sun Jul 28 2019 A large area of high pressure will maintain widespread triple digit heat across the San Joaquin Valley, West Side Hills and Kern County Deserts through Monday.
309 PM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019 Strong ridging was seen again across the region today with another warm day this afternoon. Ridging will hold again on Monday, but the ridge may start to break down a bit allowing for a better possibility of a few isolated showers.
Weak northwest flow pattern will remain in place aloft as ridging holds over the central Rockies to start the work week. However, upper anticyclone will nose a bit farther east during the week and bring more of a n-nely upper flow regime across southeast TX. Models remain fairly consistent in increasing rain chances through mid week as impulse rides down front of large ridge and supports weak front 'back-dooring' into ern TX.
233 PM MDT Sun Jul 28 2019 Current surface map shows trof moving through western South Dakota, ushering much drier air into northwest South Dakota. A few thunderstorms developing along the trof in north central South Dakota. CAMs show thunderstorms developing south-southwest along the trof. Flat upper level ridge will set up across the Rockies this week. Several impulses embedded in monsoon flow will ride across the ridge.
118 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019 Slightly warmer conditions can be expected today with continued south-southwesterly surface winds, and only scattered diurnal cumulus clouds the afternoon along with some thin, high level clouds to hinder full solar insolation.
Cooler this workweek with temperatures cooling to near or slightly below normal Monday through the week. Some smoke over the north end of the valley has been keeping temperatures a little cooler.
/Issued 246 AM PDT Sun Jul 28 2019/ Hot and dry weather continues this weekend under high pressure. There could be some heat related issues for vulnerable populations, but nothing too bad considering the time of year and that temperatures will cool overnight into the low/mid 60s allowing for some relief.
After a dry and quiet night, a cold front will approach central Indiana and move through the area for Monday and Monday night, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms across the area.
High pressure then drops over the region and remains the dominant feature over much of the CWA from late this evening through Monday night. The exception will be over the southwestern part of the CWA where an approaching low pressure system may bring a few showers or storms late Monday night. Upper flow pattern remains static to some extent, with the 4-corners high retrograding farther west and north a touch as the eastern CONUS trough deepens. The ridge axis will remain more or less overhead, but at times will be suppressed by passing waves, either from the Pacific Northwest or rotating around the 4-corners high. At the surface, cool high pressure over the western lakes region will be a semi-permanent feature through the week, though south/southeastern flow will gradually ramp up temperatures and humidity (though this only peaks around climo).
Expect upper trough and attendant MCV to exit into western WI early this evening. Otherwise, latest HRRR has continued to generate some widely scattered convection with the secondary cold front progged into western MN later in the evening. Cooler 850MB air drops over the region during the day (+8c) and with clouds, northwest breeze, and dewpoints dropping into the 50s, it will feel like an early fall day. It looks to be quiet for most of the week as we sit downstream of the large scale ridge with dry northwest flow much of the time.
148 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019 At 18Z, the cold front continues to move through the state, currently stretching east of a line from Bismarck to Harvey approaching the James Valley. Mostly sunny skies behind the front with some additional clouds associated with upper low approaching northwest ND. Expect cooler and dry weather tonight, with lows ranging from the upper 40s northwest to the upper 50s southeast. As the upper level low and associated cold front move east of ND, expect dry and cooler weather on Monday with highs in the 70s. Global models are in good agreement with amplifying broad upper level ridge over central CONUS during the upcoming week. The cooler weather on Monday will give way to a warming trend as the ridge builds.
Later this evening, a secondary boundary associated with the cold front looks to plunge southward across southeast South Dakota. Monday will be a much cooler and drier day, with high temperatures in the upper 70s and dew points in the upper 50s.