Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
320 AM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021 The mid/upper ridge over the Central Great Basin/Central Rockies region will have an increasing influence on the Central Plains states as we move through the remainder of the week.
Upper level trough continues to hold over the mid Atlantic and northeast with upper level ridge in place over the nation's mid section. Weak frontal boundary draped along the tail end of the trough axis continues to wash out and lose its characteristics with each passing day. Ridge will slowly build eastward through Friday as the longwave eastern trough moves off the east coast over the next 48 hours. 90 and eastern trough leaves a weak disturbance over the southeastern states. as subsidence increases with ridging over the middle of the country POPS will be only around 30 to 40 for Thursday. Temperatures will rebound in the lower to middle 90s on Friday.
1124 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021 Cooler and refreshingly less humid conditions will return for the remainder of the work week. As the cold front continues to slip to our south overnight, lower dewpoints will finally make it into the Lower Susq Valley. Quite refreshing for late-July! High pressure will build in from the Great Lakes on Thursday, bringing plenty of sunshine, comfortable humidity, and temperatures that are a few degrees below normal. Highs will range from the low 70s across the northern mtns to the low 80s in the valleys of southern PA, and humidity will be more comfortable than it has been in some time. A warm front will slowly approach from the west beginning on Fri, bringing with it a slight chance of showers and storms to the NW.
208 AM MDT Thu Jul 22 2021 Mean western CONUS ridge will flatten per fast impulse laden flow across the northern tier. Hot weather will also persist through the period as the upper ridge re-builds north and east. All activity will hinge on the location of the expected secondary trough Friday afternoon, which will be the main area of focus for convective development.
136 AM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021 High pressure will build over the area through Friday.
At 500mb the region will have an upper ridge just to the south with a trough to the north.
Dew points in the lower 70s and light winds within the trough of the aforementioned boundary should allow for at least patchy fog development overnight. A weak back-door cold front dropping south through Illinois will be a potential focus for showers and storms late this afternoon into evening, primarily in our western counties. Some of that may be supported by the higher levels of near-ground smoke.
The upper low continues to retrograde westward through the day, while at the same time an upper ridge begins to build over the northern Gulf of Mexico. As we remain on the northern periphery of the ridge an upper level impulse moves in from the southwest. As we move into Friday the low continue to edge away, allowing a backdoor front to try to work into the northeast. This should shift the better coverage to the southwest, so concentrated the higher chances across the southwest.
/22/ Prior discussion below: Scattered showers and thunderstorms slowly cropping up across the region this afternoon as a weak upper low remains over the region. Overall, heights increasing slightly as the 500 mb trough deepens over the eastern seaboard. That trough is countered by ridging in the west, leaving much of the forecast region in an area of weak flow/very little forcing. Another humid day, with heat indices pushing into the low to mid 100s in the afternoon, mainly west of I55 and south of I-20.
An upper level ridge will be building in to our south as an upper level trough to our northeast remains in place. The upper level trough will still provide us with the potential for thunderstorm development today but the ridge will limit the amount of coverage. Highs today will be in the upper 80s/low 90s and the lows tonight will be in the mid 70s.
High pressure centered over Lake Superior will span across the region tonight leading to clear moon lit skies and cool conditions. Otherwise, expect lows in the 40s (interior Southern Tier), elsewhere ranging from the low 50s to low 60s along lake shores. Fair and dry Thursday and Thursday night with high pressure gradually working across the area. An upper level trough near the Gulf of the Saint Lawrence will continue to bring a comfortably cool and dry airmass to our region Friday and Friday Night. Dry Friday Night as an upstream ridge pushes eastward towards our now stable region. and the lower elevations temperatures will drop back into the lower 60s.
1216 AM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021 (This evening through Thursday) Late this afternoon, West Central Texas was between a large upper ridge to the northwest and a closed upper low to the southeast. Overnight, this upper low will retrograde northwestward and become more elongated as it moves over the western half of the state. By tomorrow afternoon, daytime heating and slightly better dynamics from the upper low should help to generate better chances for pulse-type showers and a few thunderstorms.
Air Quality Alert Thursday posted due to wildfire smoke and a building upper ridge trapping particulate, preventing good dispersion, for all of NC except 5 counties in the SE corner of the state. WV sat pix show some very dry air impinging upon our northernmost counties, also roughly indicating the location of the approaching surface cold front. Some activity could meander into the area from the western part of the state sparked by the lee trough of the mountains and a bit of mid level forcing (moreso Friday) but that's about it for now.
Temperatures will trend slightly warmer today as we continue to see rising heights aloft as the upper level ridge builds overhead. Highs should range from the low to mid 90s for most of the area.
Otherwise, mostly clear skies this morning with dew points in the low 70s. There is a large scale ridge and trough in the northern US with the ridge out west and a trough in the east. The Mid-South will see some effects from the ridging in the west as the area remains on the eastern edge of the upper ridge. In the southern US, there is a upper level high out west and a high in the Gulf of Mexico, the Mid-South is between these two areas and this will allow for afternoon showers and thunderstorms to develop. At the surface there is a boundary that will lift to the north over the next couple of days as the high pressure system over the Great Lakes moves east.
An upper ridge will expand northward from the Gulf of Mexico into the southeastern states on Thursday with only isolated to scattered convection expected. Coverage may be slightly higher across extreme northern areas where the ridging will be weaker. Highs will be in the low 90s each day with lows in the low to mid 70s inland to upper 70s along the coast.
Much quieter and drier weather will transpire by this evening as mid- level ridging advances westward from the Gulf of Mexico and over deep south Texas.
321 AM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021 An upper level trough will remain persistent over the eastern US through much of the weekend. Temperatures continue to get hotter today, with readings back to the lower 90s in most areas. May be slightly cooler in the southern CSRA due to additional cloud cover, but upper 80s still expected there. Lows tonight falling back into the lower 70s. Guidance indicates upper trough to continue along the east coast with NW flow aloft for our forecast area (FA). Ensemble guidance continues to indicate an upper trough remaining over the east coast, reinforced some Tue/Wed with the appearance of an accompanying surface front and increased moisture.
Meanwhile a ridge of high pressure is progged to slide around the Nrn periphery of the aforementioned closed low into the Cntrl Plains. Additional afternoon convection will be possible over the Ern half of AR on Thursday and Friday, but QPF amounts are expected to remain on the low side. Afternoon rain chances will decrease each afternoon as high pressure slides into the region resulting in large scale forcing for subsidence to inhibit newer convection. Temperatures on Thursday are expected to top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with readings topping out a few degrees warmer than this on Friday.
1018 PM CDT Wed Jul 21 2021 (This evening through Thursday) Retrograding closed upper low passing to our south should have little impact on our weather today. Visual observations and HRRR smoke model indicate wildfire smoke moving westward across our area in tandem with the aforementioned upper low.
Overnight lows are progged to be in the lower to mid 60s, with perhaps a few spots in east-central KY dropping into the upper 50s.
The heat and humidity begin to creep upward today as the upper low continues to trek westward across central TX. With the low more SW of the area, this will allow for winds to be more southerly today across the area. The higher terrain of NW AR and SE OK should allow for enough vertical motion to pop showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon. The upper low will continue to weaken/dissipate into Friday as an upper ridge builds and expands over the southern plains this weekend.
425 AM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021 Cooler and refreshingly less humid conditions will prevail for the remainder of the work week. Dewpoint depressions of 4 to 8 degrees should prevent fog formation over the Lower Susq this morning. High pressure building over the region from the eastern GLAKS will bring abundant sunshine with low humidity today. Highs will be a few degrees below normal, ranging from the lower 70s over the northern mountains to the lower 80s in the valleys of southeast PA. A warm front will slowly approach from the west beginning on Fri, bringing with it a slight chance of showers and storms to the NW.
(This afternoon through Thursday night) WV imagery shows the upper-level ridge centered just northeast of the Four Corners, whereas the westward moving trough is located over northeast Texas. This feature is forecast to meander to the South Plains by 12Z Friday, nudging the Four Corners ridge to northwest AZ.
(Today through Friday afternoon) Mid/upper level low was moving wwd early this AM and by this afternoon the cyclonic circulation will be centered INVOF srn PB/Lower Trans Pecos. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA will be more favored today than yesterday, based on position of the low the favored areas will be along and s of I-20. By Fri PM the mid/upper low and trof axis will be w of the area placing much of the CWFA on the more precip favored e side of the retrograding low, with steering flow becoming sw.
1115 PM CDT Wed Jul 21 2021 Current satellite imagery shows the upper level ridge slowly pushing into the region. While this usually indicates an increased chance for rain, the position and structure of the ridge will prevent any organized convection from starting.
Low temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 60s. broad upper level ridging continues across the area with 850mb temperatures warming another 5F to 8F yielding high temperatures in the low 90s to upper 90s. Heat index values will be within a few degrees of the high temperatures. Low temperatures are expected to be in the low 60s to around 70. 850mb temperatures rise another 2F to 3F supporting highs in the low 90s to around 102 degrees, highest readings along the Republican River valley and east of Highway 83. Heat index values will be within a few degrees of the high temperatures.
The high resolution smoke forecast model anticipates the smoke from the Cascade Wildfires to push east through northeast and eastern Washington by 2am-4am and into northern Idaho by 3am-5am.
Clouds will be on the increase tomorrow, especially over western AR, but should be in the low VFR range. The weak mid/upper low that has been to the southeast of the CWA was positioned more to the south of the region this evening as it slowly trekked westward across Texas. high pressure with light winds were common over the CWA underneath a hazy/smoky sky. the mid/upper low is expected to be south to southwest of the CWA by Thursday morning. lows in the low 70s are possible. With the mid/upper low more the to southwest for Thursday.
The upper pattern remains defined by a ridge over the central CONUS and troughing in both the Pacific NW and New England.
An upper level low drifts to the west over West-Central Texas today. Upward forcing by the low and heating of this moist airmass will generate showers and thunderstorms by mid morning into afternoon. However, they redevelop over western areas later this evening into overnight as the upper level low drifts to the lower Pecos River Valley region and the low level jet strengthens. As the upper level low drifts toward southeastern New Mexico forcing wanes and moisture levels decrease as the Subtropical Ridge begins to build over our area with increasing subsidence on Friday.
The ridge axis is orientated more northeast-southwest, as evidenced on satellite. A broad upper low is slowly moving over British Columbia this morning. The upper low will make its way eastward tonight, gradually filling as it makes its way toward Saskatchewan through the night Thursday.
Upper level ridge continues heavily influence our area and will help enhance a warming trend as return flow pumps warmer and more humid air into our region.
613 AM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021 Cooler and refreshingly less humid conditions will prevail for the remainder of the work week. Dewpoint depressions of 4 to 8 degrees should prevent fog formation over the Lower Susq this morning. High pressure building over the region from the eastern GLAKS will bring abundant sunshine with low humidity today. Highs will be a few degrees below normal, ranging from the lower 70s over the northern mountains to the lower 80s in the valleys of southeast PA. A warm front will slowly approach from the west beginning on Fri, bringing with it a slight chance of showers and storms to the NW.
Mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures dominated the Central California Interior as high pressure remains in control of the region.
A mid level ridge remains across the southern and central Plains early this morning while a trough was located over British Columbia. The main concern continues to be building heat across the area as warm air advection will allow temperatures to warm to near normal values in the lower 90s today. Temperatures will continue to warm into the weekend with the thermal ridge spreads eastward through the Plains with temperatures warming into the mid to upper 90s and increasing humidity.
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected to occur late this afternoon or early this evening and continue through the night as high pressure builds into the state. Much quieter and drier weather will transpire by this evening as mid- level ridging advances westward from the Gulf of Mexico and over deep south Texas.
448 AM MDT Thu Jul 22 2021 Mean western CONUS ridge will flatten per fast impulse laden flow across the northern tier. Hot weather will also persist through the period as the upper ridge re-builds north and east. All activity will hinge on the location of the expected secondary trough Friday afternoon, which will be the main area of focus for convective development.
344 AM MDT Thu Jul 22 2021 Similar monsoonal pattern as the past few days continues with Thursday with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to develop early this afternoon over the higher terrain in southeast Wyoming.
A look at GOES mid-level water vapor imagery this morning shows the ever-constant ridge that has been reigning supreme over much of the western and central CONUS as of late.
High pressure over the Four Corners region keeps monsoonal moisture in place, leading to the threat for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
619 AM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021 A frontal boundary is setting up from southwest to northeast this morning, currently stretching from Rapid City to Mobridge. As this second front slowly moves west to east, the upper ridge will become suppressed as a Canadian trough dips down. The period begins on Friday night with a broad upper level trough and surface front moving into Minnesota. Temperatures should cool some behind the system as a high pressure slides across the region.
1024 AM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021 High pressure will keep us fairly dry and seasonal into Friday. This high will shift to off the southeast coast this weekend while a front moves in from the northwest.
Longer term ensembles point to the upper ridge pattern becoming established once more over the western U.
636 AM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021 Cooler and refreshingly less humid conditions will prevail for the remainder of the work week. High pressure building over the region from the eastern GLAKS will bring abundant sunshine with low humidity today. Highs will be a few degrees below normal, ranging from the lower 70s over the northern mountains to the lower 80s in the valleys of southeast PA. A warm front will slowly approach from the west beginning on Fri, bringing with it a slight chance of showers and storms to the NW.
A slow moving low pressure system will help trigger scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms today.
530 AM MDT Thu Jul 22 2021 Today and Friday, the forecast area will be sandwiched between a trough pulling across southern Canada and an upper level ridge south of the area.
445 AM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021 A frontal boundary is setting up from southwest to northeast this morning, currently stretching from Rapid City to Mobridge. As this second front slowly moves west to east, the upper ridge will become suppressed as a Canadian trough dips down. The period begins on Friday night with a broad upper level trough and surface front moving into Minnesota. Temperatures should cool some behind the system as a high pressure slides across the region.
535 AM MDT Thu Jul 22 2021 Similar monsoonal pattern as the past few days continues with Thursday with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to develop early this afternoon over the higher terrain in southeast Wyoming.
530 AM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021 Dry weather is expected through Friday under building high pressure.
742 AM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021 Dry weather is expected through Friday under building high pressure.
Another warm day is expected this afternoon with highs generally expected to be a degree or two warmer than those seen yesterday. The biggest warm up is expected Friday into the weekend as high pressure expands across the southwest US.
Tonight will be a few degrees warmer than this morning, as our gradual warm-up gets underway.
620 AM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021 (Today and tonight) A low pressure system will remain across this portion of Texas through today.
Increased wildfire smoke is also possible as the ridge of high pressure strengthens.
637 AM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021 An upper level trough will remain persistent over the eastern US through much of the weekend. Temperatures continue to get hotter today, with readings back to the lower 90s in most areas. May be slightly cooler in the southern CSRA due to additional cloud cover, but upper 80s still expected there. Lows tonight falling back into the lower 70s. Guidance indicates upper trough to continue along the east coast with NW flow aloft for our forecast area (FA). Ensemble guidance continues to indicate an upper trough remaining over the east coast, reinforced some Tue/Wed with the appearance of an accompanying surface front and increased moisture.
1043 AM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021 Mean layer ridging dominates the Gulf of Mexico and Florida. Weak high pressure will reach west across the Florida Keys and South Florida for the next several days.
655 AM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021 High pressure will keep us fairly dry and seasonal into Friday. This high will shift to off the southeast coast this weekend while a front moves in from the northwest.
The mid/upper ridge over the Central Great Basin/Central Rockies region will have an increasing influence on the Central Plains states as we move through the remainder of the week.
415 AM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021 Radiation fog has developed once again early this morning, mostly in river valleys and low-lying areas, courtesy of mostly clear skies, sufficient boundary layer moisture, and nearby low-level anticyclone promoting light/calm winds. At upper levels, a ridge centered over the Rocky Mtns will continue broaden and expand eastward, resulting in gradually rising mid-level heights and large-scale subsidence.
(Today and tonight) A low pressure system will remain across this portion of Texas through today.
/Tonight and Tomorrow/ Upper level ridging in place over the Southern Plains edging into the forecast region. Mainly dry conditions will prevail as mid/upper ridging builds in across the region and increasing mid level temps put a lid on convective development. Precip will primarily be limited to isolated diurnal convection over parts of southeast AR and northeast LA, which may be just far enough east on the periphery of the ridge and where somewhat greater deep layer moisture will exist.
A warm front, associated with low pressure in North Dakota, and extends into W Illinois, is producing clouds and sprinkles over the forecast area this afternoon. As this system, as well as the 500 mb ridge pattern moves east, the chances for more significant precipitation will increase overnight. with the cloud cover, the primary concern is the thunder potential overnight as the differential advection and a weak 500 mb trough, and the warm front couple to produce better chances for thunder.
South/southwest winds will bring a warmer and more humid airmass into the area for Friday with a period of mid level ridging noted.
1215 PM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021 The mid/upper ridge over the Central Great Basin/Central Rockies region will have an increasing influence on the Central Plains states as we move through the remainder of the week.
Upper ridge will dominate our weather over the next several days. A boundary may slip just far enough south to give us a storm or two for late Friday night as a trough moves across the northern Plains, but this would remain well north of the tri-cities.
A few showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening across mainly the higher terrain areas of southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. The heat and humidity begin to creep upward today as the upper low continues to trek westward across central TX. With the low more SW of the area, this will allow for winds to be more southerly today across the area. The higher terrain of NW AR and SE OK should allow for enough vertical motion to pop showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon. The upper low will continue to weaken/dissipate into Friday as an upper ridge builds and expands over the southern plains this weekend.
The upper low to our west continues to retrograde, while an upper level impulse, along with an old surface boundary analyzed across the region helps to trigger afternoon convection. Likely PoPs remain in the forecast through Friday afternoon for much of the area, with the lowest rain chances across the northeast counties.
A frontal boundary is setting up from southwest to northeast this morning, currently stretching from Rapid City to Mobridge. As this second front slowly moves west to east, the upper ridge will become suppressed as a Canadian trough dips down. The period begins on Friday night with a broad upper level trough and surface front moving into Minnesota. Temperatures should cool some behind the system as a high pressure slides across the region.
Detailed Discussion A high pressure building from the SW CONUS is funneling warm air into the region. There is also a large upper level low tracking westward across TX. This boundary is expected to slowly erode as the low moves west throughout today/tonight.
The subtropical ridge was at a strength near 596 dm and near the Four Corners. With the improved mixing and the atmosphere continuing to get incrementally warmer each day, lower 90s are expected this afternoon. Weak closed cyclone will meander in West Texas tonight. Models show no change in the 500 mb heights, as the closed low retrogrades into New Mexico, pushing the subtropical high center temporarily to near Las Vegas, Nevada. South winds will remain breezy in response to lee side troughing in eastern Colorado.