Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Towards the end of the TAF period, the passage of a cold front will bring backing winds and the threat for convection. Tonight and Saturday, change will come in the form of a cold front that will pass from north to south through the region. The direct benefit of the cold front passage, in addition to potential slight relief in the ongoing drought conditions, will be well below normal overnight low and daytime high temperatures tonight and Saturday, respectively.
SHORT TERM (Through Saturday): Models continue to depict a high pressure ridge centered to the SE of the peninsula, with SoFlo under the influence of the NW periphery of the high. Then for Saturday, models suggest some erosion of the western periphery of the ridge due to an approaching frontal boundary from the north.
Forecast soundings suggest cooler than normal temperatures aloft today, as low as -12. These cooler temperatures are supported by this morning's XMR sounding, which found a 500mb temperature of -11C at 10Z. However, 500mb temperatures are forecast to peak mid-morning before warming through the afternoon, with the bulk of convection being generated after the minimum cooler temperatures.
At the start of the period, an upper closed low is located over eastern Kansas, with northwest flow on its backside over the region. Meanwhile, another closed low spins over Arizona.
726 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021 Drier and cooler conditions will persist today.
/Issued 422 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021/ Cool and dry northwesterly flow is currently ongoing across north and central Georgia this morning behind a cold frontal boundary clearing the state to the southeast. Morning lows will start out near climatological normals, mainly in the 40s across most of the area, along with some upper 30s in the higher elevations across the far northeast. This high pressure system will keep conditions dry throughout the day today. The position of the low should keep the majority of the precipitation in the southern portion of the forecast area, although some uncertainty remains regarding its track and timing.
624 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021 Cold front has moved through the area this morning which has switched winds around to the north to northeast. This is helping to scour out the low level moisture which is evident by the rapidly improving visibilities at area terminals and gradually improving ceilings at 11Z. Winds will become gusty out of the north late this morning and afternoon in the wake of the cold front. This feature will also help to bring a cold front through the forecast area later this morning around daybreak. This front will back winds around to the north and help to scour out the low level moisture that has been leading to the persistent drizzle/fog across much of the region early this morning. Models drop two short waves to the southeast within the larger long wave trough this weekend.
With a warm/humid vertical profile up to the freezing level at around 10,000 ft, hail will have a difficult time making it to the ground, but will still be possible, given the amount of instability (up to about 1,000 J/kg in our southern counties) and wind shear. Partial clearing is expected late tonight over the west, which will allow temperature to drop to near freezing in the far northwest.
/Issued 313 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021/ Ongoing scattered showers will give way to more widespread activity this morning as the upper low moves into the central Plains.
An upper level low will move into the forecast area during the day today. The west will have snow, where temperatures are cooler. Where temperatures remain a little warmer, there will be a mix. Tonight, temperatures will fall off again and there will be a mix of rain and snow possible, but this will be mainly in the northeastern part of the forecast area as the upper low moves off to the east. By Saturday morning, the low has moved far enough east that the precipitation will be out of the area.
Heights will slowly rise today, as the upper low rotates toward the New England coast. Dry weather and some temperature moderation is expected Saturday under the influence of high pressure and weak ridging.
Challenge and concern for the period will be the low impact weather with a slight chance for precip across eastern ND today. Weak NW flow aloft will bring a 500mb trough across the area with mid level moisture there is a slight chance for a few rain/snow mix showers today across eastern ND. Will see most areas experience a majority of the day with clouds which will limit daytime highs to the mid 40s with a few 50s possible along the eastern edge of the FA in the Baudette to Bemidji to Park Rapids area where fewer clouds are possible and then would allow warmer temps to be realized. Tonight skies will clear from north to south with temps falling into the low 20s north to low 30s south.
The higher amounts are expected to occur out west toward the Kansas and Oklahoma border.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 49 63 46 67 / 0 30 40 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 46 60 45 65 / 0 20 50 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 65 45 61 43 65 / 0 20 40 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 40 58 42 62 / 0 10 40 20 20.
Rain-free conditions will continue through the day, thanks to high pressure still dominating the region. From synopsis, The Florida Keys are in the western periphery of a ridge of high pressure located east of the Bahamas.
241 AM PDT Fri Apr 16 2021 Temperatures will remain near average through Saturday with a few snow showers near the Sierra crest this afternoon as weak low pressure drops south into the eastern Great Basin.
406 AM MDT Fri Apr 16 2021 Moisture continued to wrap around the area of low pressure across Moab into southwest Colorado early this morning as the low moves into the central Plains by sunrise. The main trough that has been hanging over much of the central and eastern parts of the country will try to pinch off a low over the Four Corners area by Saturday as this western extent gets squeezed underneath a ridge of high pressure trying to build out west along the eastern Pacific coast.
Main band of light rain showers across the central CWA will lift north and slowly decrease in coverage through the day as the upper low rotates toward the New England coast. Virtually no accumulation is forecast from the few remaining snow showers north of I-80 and in the higher elevations. Dry weather and some temperature moderation is expected Saturday under the influence of high pressure and weak ridging.
633 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021 Drier and cooler conditions will persist today.
Latest surface analysis shows high pressure dominating the region as satellite reveals mostly clear skies across southern Indiana and central KY. High temperatures of 55-60 will be about 10 degrees cooler than normal but winds will be light with a fairly flat surface pressure pattern.
Temperatures will be cooler than normal through the weekend with more clouds than sunshine. A closed upper low along the New York-Pennsylvania border will drift to the east today, winding up near Cape Cod this evening. Deep moisture, with broad forcing along an inverted trof axis, will bring additional periods of light rain and drizzle to the region through the day. Temperatures are marginally cold enough early this morning for some wet snow over the highest elevations with generally less than an inch in most areas and up to 2 inches possible in the Catskills and high terrain of far western Steuben and Bradford counties. Temperatures bump up about 5-10 degrees warmer than today, but still remain below average for this time in April.
623 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021 Early morning showers across EC Kansas and WC/SW Missouri this morning seem to be rooted in the mid levels as opposed to the lower levels. In the post cold frontal environment on Saturday with a mid level low moving through the area there appears to be good enough low level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft to produce some fairly vigorous convective updrafts capable of some isolated thunderstorms Saturday.
Temps are generally inn the lower 50s with a light N/NE wind. A good chunk of the day will be rain free with temps climbing into the low to mid 60s. Late this afternoon a mid level trough will approach and rain chances will increase across western areas spreading east tonight.
In the lower 290K and 295K layers, downglide will kick in by 12Z. This will provide accumulating snow to the Highway 2 corridor and eastern portions of the advisory including Blaine and Custer County. This system will move across the Mid Missouri Valley this evening, followed by a northern stream trough dropping into north central NE overnight. On Saturday, the northern stream trough will drop south through western NE.
High temperatures today will be slightly warmer and in the 40s. A weak 500 MB trough will push through the region today and encounter abundant moisture that has been trapped across the region. Expect high temperatures today to be slightly warmer yet remain below seasonal normals and generally be in the 40s. Late this afternoon through tonight, high pressure ridge will start to influence the region and begin diminishing clouds and ending chances for precipitation from northwest to southeast.
1016 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021 Drier and cooler conditions will persist today.
Temperatures will be similar on Saturday but slightly warmer in the southwest due to as more sunshine.
There is some model variation between coldest low 40s to warmer upper 40s. Freezing temperatures are likely over a large portion of the area Tonight and Saturday with mid 30s more likely in the central Kansas counties.
The trough will hang around on Saturday as well with a chance of light showers in the Sierra.
921 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021 We got off to a chilly start this morning with low temperatures dipping into the lower 30s across much of the area. Latest surface analysis shows high pressure dominating the region as satellite reveals mostly clear skies across southern Indiana and central KY. High temperatures of 55-60 will be about 10 degrees cooler than normal but winds will be light with a fairly flat surface pressure pattern.
Light scattered showers and isolated thunder possible in the higher elevations of Lincoln County and the Sierra this afternoon and Saturday afternoon.
646 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021 A cold front just east of the Midlands will move offshore overnight.
409 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021 Challenge and concern for the period will be the low impact weather with a slight chance for precip across eastern ND today. Weak NW flow aloft will bring a 500mb trough across the area with mid level moisture there is a slight chance for a few rain/snow mix showers today across eastern ND. Will see most areas experience a majority of the day with clouds which will limit daytime highs to the mid 40s with a few 50s possible along the eastern edge of the FA in the Baudette to Bemidji to Park Rapids area where fewer clouds are possible and then would allow warmer temps to be realized. Tonight skies will clear from north to south with temps falling into the low 20s north to low 30s south.
546 AM MDT Fri Apr 16 2021 Moisture continued to wrap around the area of low pressure across Moab into southwest Colorado early this morning as the low moves into the central Plains by sunrise. The main trough that has been hanging over much of the central and eastern parts of the country will try to pinch off a low over the Four Corners area by Saturday as this western extent gets squeezed underneath a ridge of high pressure trying to build out west along the eastern Pacific coast.
High temperatures today will continue to trend warmer, with readings near seasonal averages.
Today Through Saturday Night A positively-tilted mid/upper trough extends from the western US through the central Plains and into the upper Midwest this morning. A closed upper cyclone is noted across New England with a modest mid-level ridge between these two features. Mid/upper troughing will only gradually sink southward tonight into Saturday as multiple embedded vort maxima translate across the central Plains. This will keep rain in the forecast through at least the pre-dawn hours on Saturday before another vort max dives towards northern AR and ushers in a drier air mass and surface ridging. As surface ridging settles in Saturday night and clouds further erode, readings will fall into the upper 30s to upper 40s.
646 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021 High pressure will build into and over the area from the northwest today, then a dry backdoor surface cold front will drop through the region tonight. Water vapor satellite displayed an upper-level low over NY/PA, a ridge across the central Plains and mostly zonal flow across central NC. Surface observations showed ridging across the region from high pressure across the Midwest. Northerly surface winds will continue this morning from high pressure to our NW, then switch to westerly as a Piedmont trough develops this afternoon. The upper ridge to our west will build across the region tonight, with a dry backdoor cold front switching winds to N/NE by Sat morning. Lows will range from the mid 40s N to the low 50s SE.
/JNE/ Today and Tonight: Rain chances will increase from west to east today as a low pressure system moves along the ArkLaMiss coastal line. As this system tracks along the coast, a warm frontal boundary has also become stationary along the coast increasing instability.
653 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021 High pressure will continue to extend into the region through tonight.
1005 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021 High pressure will continue to extend into the region through tonight.
Upper level low over Wyoming will shift southeast later this morning into Nebraska, bringing an end to precipitation from north to south by this afternoon. Can't completely rule out a few sprinkles this afternoon with the low level instability, but low level dry advection will work against precip making it to the ground.
632 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021 (Today and tonight) An upper level low is moving east into the central plains early this morning. The cold front and westerly surface winds ahead of it, should help scour out the low clouds and fog by late morning or early afternoon. The cold front that has been advertised for several days now looks to move through the area faster than previously thought, making its way through the entire forecast area by mid afternoon, as opposed to tonight. Overnight lows will drop into the 40s behind the cold front tonight. An upper level low currently west of the northern Baja peninsula will move across the area tonight, bringing mid and upper level clouds with it, but have left the forecast dry for now with dry low level air moving in behind the front.
Although cold front will be moving through the area late tonight, will likely have post frontal shower activity especially over southern areas.
Temperatures will be cooler than normal through the weekend with more clouds than sunshine. Over the northern part of forecast area, areas of precipitation moving around the upper low in a northeast to southwest direction, while over the southern part of the area areas of precipitation moving northwest to southeast. KBGM still reporting light snow, so while most of the precipitation is rain, still some snow over the highest terrain. Temperatures bump up about 5-10 degrees warmer than today, but still remain below average for this time in April.
306 PM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021 As 20Z Friday afternoon, an upper low was centered across south- central NE. As the upper low progresses east- southeastward this evening and overnight, the bulk of rainfall should come to an end from west to east. Drizzle may develop overnight as moisture depth drastically decreases with the departing upper low but low level lapse rates steepen through a low-level saturated layer. Otherwise, highs Saturday afternoon will reach the low to mid 50s.
1126 AM MDT Fri Apr 16 2021 Latest satellite imagery showed the center of the mid/upper level low pressure system over northwest KS.
/Issued 241 AM PDT Fri Apr 16 2021/ Temperatures will remain near average through Saturday with a few snow showers near the Sierra crest this afternoon as weak low pressure drops south into the eastern Great Basin.
1258 PM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021 Low level ridging and dry air will delay rainfall somewhat this evening into the overnight. We will carry increasing PoPs from west to east, with the western counties having the highest and earliest chance of light rain.
The low level atmosphere will remain moist into Saturday with relatively cool air/steep low level lapse rates across central/eastern Kansas.
Saturday should be quite pleasant across the area, with afternoon temperatures around 10 to 15 degrees below normal as highs will top out in the lower to upper 60s. Temperatures on Saturday night will fall into the lower to upper 40s across the area.
Upper level low pressure is currently situated near the southern New England coast. Shower coverage will slowly taper off as moisture becomes more shallow and as subsidence increases from approaching weak high pressure.
With the low staying along the gulf coast Sat, the majority of the precipitation should stay in the southern portion of the forecast area.
Residual showers will thus end as the high pres builds.
Lows tonight will be in the lower to middle 40s, while highs on Saturday reach the middle to upper 50s. An upper low evident on 19z/2pm water vapor imagery along the Nebraska/Kansas border will track E/SE and weaken over the next 24 hours.
1005 AM MDT Fri Apr 16 2021 Latest satellite imagery showed the center of the mid/upper level low pressure system over northwest KS.
15z/10am surface analysis shows ridge axis extending from the Northern Rockies into the Ohio River Valley. Synoptic subsidence beneath the ridge is leading to mostly sunny and dry conditions across central Illinois this morning. After chilly lows in the lower to middle 30s, latest readings have rebounded into the lower 50s. For now, the surface is dominated by high pressure and helping keep winds light this morning. High temperatures will be in the 50s again today except for southern counties which will warm into the low 60s.
This modification will lead to a warming trend this afternoon into Saturday with temperatures reaching the lower to mid 90s by Saturday afternoon along portions of the eastern half of the peninsula. The temperatures could threaten some records for Saturday, particularly at the east coast climate stations, if temperatures go a few degrees above the current forecast which is riding more on the higher side of the statistical guidance envelope. The warm temperatures contrasting with the slightly cooler local waters will likely be able to help sea breezes form with the westerly flow favoring the Gulf sea breeze and pinning the Atlantic sea breeze.
226 PM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021 226 PM CDT There are no significant weather concerns through the period, with generally dry and seasonable weather expected through the weekend, though with some cloud cover and cooler afternoon lake breezes. However, a lake breeze shifting inland over northeastern IL and northwesterly Illinois is resulting in much cooler conditions near the lake. Expect temperatures on Saturday to be similar to those of today, with readings topping out near 60 for inland areas, but remaining much cooler near the lake due to another day of onshore winds.
238 PM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021 Cool surface ridging continues to build into West Texas this afternoon in the wake of a storm system ejecting across Kansas and Nebraska. The coolest temperatures, in the lower to middle 30s, will occur across the southwest Texas Panhandle and northwestern South Plains. Should clearing be more widespread than expected and winds diminish greater than anticipated, most spots on the Caprock could approach the freezing mark. By tomorrow night a highly positively tilted upper trough will slowly push southward across the Four Corners region, a process that is currently expected to take most of the weekend.
244 PM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021 After a chilly start to the morning with lows in the lower to mid 30s, temperatures have rebounded nicely this afternoon into the mid 50s and lower 60s. Under increased sky coverage, high temperatures for the day will remain cooler than today, topping out in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
The models move a secondary trough axis north to south tonight through Saturday as it splits into the Great Basin. Low broken to overcast cloud cover will linger overnight, with warmer temperatures back into the mid 40s Saturday, warmer than today but still cooler than normal. For Saturday evening, could see a few snow showers linger into the early evening over the higher terrain south of I-70, otherwise dry conditions are expected.
128 PM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021 Drier and cooler conditions will persist today.
An upper level low was very slowly progressing east across northern Kansas today, appearing to become less organized as the day has progressed. Currently there was on focused area for ascent on the eastern flank of this low from eastern KS into Nebraska and Iowa. Later tonight it does appear that the precipitation will intensify a bit and expand in coverage on the northern flank of the upper low center as it passes by. Meanwhile, another vorticity maxima intensifies and dives down the west side of the long wave trough, bringing a period of focused lift to the area on Saturday.
Latest regional radar analysis and surface observations depict a cold front pushing southeastward this afternoon, with numerous showers and thunderstorms developing along this boundary. Aloft, westerly flow continues around the southern periphery of a large upper level low over the Northern Plains. This disturbance will quickly race east this evening, helping to provide some lift in conjuction with the advancing cold front.
Could see a thin ribbon of upper level energy reach northward of the main trough, but saturation is limited.
Temperatures have been holding steady in the low to mid 40s across much of the CWA, so far today. Models appear to be getting a better handle on the mid/upper level longwave trof/shear axis working southeastward across Montana and North Dakota, and as such have been generating pockets of light precipitation working southward through the CWA from now right on through the middle of tonight, before the subsidence/backside of the upper trof axis works over the CWA. The rest of the short term forecast is dry, with a warming trend noted through Saturday night, while low level WAA kicks in and draws a warmer airmass into the region.
1141 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021 Cold front making steady progress thru n/nctl Tx this morning and will make its way into northern parts of the CWA this afternoon and off the coast 10pm-2am.
232 PM MDT Fri Apr 16 2021 Elongated mid/upper trough was situated over the Central Plains.
WV imagery indicates a closed upper low moving east across southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Near the surface, an area of low pressure is pushing southeast into southwest Texas. Meanwhile, high pressure is building in across the high plains of eastern Montana and eastern Wyoming. Temperatures will be slightly warmer Saturday with highs ranging from the mid/upper 40s(F) in west central Kansas to the lower 50s(F) in south central Kansas.
The main trough, currently over Nebraska, will eject into the Lower Mississippi Valley overnight with more widespread showers expected. Isolated showers may linger into Saturday morning and afternoon as the main trough weakens and moves overhead. Temps are generally inn the lower 50s with a light N/NE wind. A good chunk of the day will be rain free with temps climbing into the low to mid 60s. Late this afternoon a mid level trough will approach and rain chances will increase across western areas spreading east tonight.
236 PM MDT Fri Apr 16 2021 The upper low is crossing the central Great Plains at this time, as it begins to phase back into the main flow.