Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Deep moisture and an area of low pressure over western Texas moving west will bring numerous showers and thunderstorms to northern and central Arizona through mid-week. While models have some timing and location differences concerning the actual placement of this event all operation models are leaning towards this solution; with the higher resolution models concurring that a mesoscale convective system is anticipated to develop and move across the high country in the overnight hours.
Low-level ridging will persist through the second half of this week as the jet stream is well to our north. The GFS and ECMWF both have an upper level low being cut-off Wednesday over the Coastal Mid-Atlantic states before retrograding over the next few days.
The deep layer weak trough overhead of SE Texas will likely linger overhead one more day before the deep layer upper level ridge in the Plains edges southward. This pattern should lead to slightly warmer temperatures and less rain chances.
1002 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017 High pressure over the western Atlantic and extending into the region remains through the end of the week.
813 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017 High pressure over the western Atlantic and extending into the region remains through the end of the week.
716 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017 /00Z TAFs/ As an upper ridge builds into North Texas, typical July weather will prevail the remainder of the week: VFR conditions with light southeast winds and fewer CU. /Issued 338 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017/ Typical summertime conditions continue this afternoon as the ridge of high pressure across the Southern Plains controls our sensible weather through the rest of the week and into the weekend. The upper level ridge, currently centered over Kansas, is the reason for a large area of heat related watches, advisories and warnings across the Central Plains and Midwest. As the ridge expands and shifts southeast the next couple of days, conditions will only get warmer. The highest concentration of moisture will remain to our southeast, leaving North and Central Texas hot with no precipitation chances.
Further northern activity may blossom later in the day once the lower 90s are met. Energy is forecast to move down an East Coast trough axis and pinch off around the south and eastern periphery of the large Central U. ridge. The deep layer weak trough overhead of SE Texas will likely linger overhead one more day before the deep layer upper level ridge in the Plains edges southward. This pattern should lead to slightly warmer temperatures and less rain chances.
1136 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017 Typical Bermuda ridge pattern to yield gulf breeze and lake breeze convergence convection during the afternoon hours. One of these boundaries is noted by the 10 knot south wind in the lowest levels of the atmosphere. This is likely the result of a lakebreeze that formed as temperatures climbed into the lower 90s during the afternoon hours.
/Issued 301 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017/ Hot and humid conditions will continue for the next several days as high pressure aloft remains in control of the overall weather pattern.
We did have a couple of healthy cells during the early evening over the mountains and the high desert.
1221 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 High pressure will remain in control through Wednesday morning. A weak area of low pressure will move east across the Southern Great Lakes Wednesday into Wednesday night, forcing a weak cold front southeast across the area.
1023 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017 High pressure over the western Atlantic and extending into the region remains through the end of the week.
The broad upper ridge stretching from the Four Corners region of the SW CONUS into the Southern Plains will gradually build eastward through the period.
Temperatures are running much cooler this evening than compared to last night. Onshore flow and a Delta breeze are bringing temperatures 5 to 10 degrees cooler for most of the area, and 15 to 18 degrees cooler for the Delta.
959 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017 Weak high pressure will build over the region tonight. A cold front will approach from the northwest on Wednesday and will drop south through the region Wednesday night.
Put in mention of MVFR fog at KCKV as dewpoints remain in the low 70s at that terminal, but kept fog mention out of the other sites for now.
Wind speeds will continue to veer and decrease through the early morning hours as a region of high pressure continues to build in from the north. With high pressure overhead by the afternoon hours Sunday, expect ceilings to rise shortly after sunrise to high MVFR, with winds out of the E/SE between 5-10 kts. /ISSUED 318 PM CDT Sat Apr 7 2018/ The cold front cleared the coast late this morning. With the strong north winds in place, area temperatures continue to steadily fall this afternoon with 3 PM readings ranging from the low to mid 40s well inland to the mid to upper 50s at the coast.
501 PM MDT Sat Apr 7 2018 Current surface analysis shows high pressure over the eastern Dakotas, with low pressure across northern ID. Upper level analysis shows a weakening ridge over the Northern Rockies, with a large upper low off the Pacific NW coast. However, warmer air aloft will be advecting into the area tonight ahead of the low and could bring some light freezing rain from portions of western to south central SD late tonight/early Sunday. Behind the low, gusty northwesterly winds will develop in many areas for the late morning and afternoon.
A low pressure trough moving inland through California will bring patchy clouds and gusty westerly winds over the mountains and deserts through tonight, with a few light showers possible over the mountains of San Bernardino and Riverside Counties.
652 PM CDT Sat Apr 7 2018 For the 00Z TAFs, a cold front will move across the TAF sites on Sunday with north to northeast winds in its wake. /Issued 423 PM CDT Sat Apr 7 2018/ Mid levels indicate strong ridging today in the west with a strong closed low coming onshore in the Pacific NW. This will bring a cold front through the area between late morning and early afternoon from north to south. By the beginning of the work week the mid level ridge re-strengthens, but another wave pushes through the main flow in the wake of the low's breakdown.
Dry high pressure will push into Middle Tennessee tonight and remain in control through Sunday.
Winds will diminish through the evening as the cold front moves farther away. In addition to overcast skies over our eastern half to two-thirds of the region, north-northeast winds at 10-15 mph gusting to 20-25 mph tonight should cause enough mixing to prevent temperatures from falling below freezing as low temperatures range from the mid to upper 30s in the Hill Country to mid 40s in the Rio Grande Plains. However, temperatures may fall to freezing in very isolated low-lying areas with somewhat calmer winds in the Hill Country if skies clear by sunset and remain that way.
As of 20Z Saturday afternoon northwest mid-level flow remains across the central Plains with troughing in the east and ridging in the west. A mid-level low was encroaching the Pacific northwest coast, west of the ridge. At a surface, a broad ridge stretched from southern Canada to the US/Mexico border. The trough will exit the region Sunday evening, ending all precipitation from west to east late Sunday afternoon and evening. Snowfall amounts look to remain at a trace to maybe as much as a 1/2 inch, with the highest amounts along the KS/NE border.
1150 PM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018 Low pressure will intensify and move NE up the coast, while a back door front moves through our region tonight. An upper trough will bring light rain overnight, then expect clearing skies Sunday morning.
The main story in the short term is the low pressure system moving across the region late tonight and through the day on Sunday.
However, the clearing is expected to cease shortly after 12Z Sunday near or just S of I-20 across N LA/E TX, as the low level flow quickly comes around out of the S by mid to late morning. Thus, have maintained high based MVFR cigs at GGG/TYR/LFK through the remainder of the TAF period, with the low VFR cigs returning to the remainder of Nrn LA/SW AR from late morning through early afternoon over areas that will clear or scatter out.
" Broad upper level troughing with continuation of colder than normal temperatures looks to prevail much of the upcoming week. High pressure in wake of that system will bring dry weather Thu, then medium range models and ensembles continue to point to potential for large winter system affecting the Upper Great Lakes region Fri into Sat. Both blend of model qpf along with ensemble probabilities for exceeding over 1 inch of qpf point to potentially a significant system, though potential for warm layer aloft (shown by latest GFS and ECMWF) will ultimately determine extent of snow and/or sleet/freezing rain.
The 19z MSAS surface analysis showed a ridge of high pressure that stretched from near Lake Winnipeg southward into the central Plains. There was still somewhat of a pressure gradient over WI between the ridge and low pressure well to our northeast. Any instability cumulus clouds that could pop up late this afternoon will quickly disappear early this evening upon sunset, leaving the ridge of high pressure to move into the western Great Lakes region tonight. Attention then focuses on a weak area of low pressure that is forecast to move across the northern Plains during the day. Look for readings to range from the lower 30s north-central WI, lower to middle 30s elsewhere.
955 PM CDT Sat Apr 7 2018 It appears this will be the last night for widespread freezing temperatures for a while. Anyway, several mesonet sites quickly approached freezing after sunset. However, if complete melting occurs through a relatively warm layer, some light freezing rain may occur.
High pressure will keep the weather cold and dry through Sunday.
Snowfall should taper off to little or nothing in the highway 2 corridor.
BL temperatures reveal a brief transition from freezing rain/sleet to snow, then rain after daybreak when temperatures warm.
The lower dewpoints combined with light winds should allow temperatures to fall back into the 20s and lower 30s by early morning.
However, the widespread rain and the low cloud cover is moving east very fast, so maybe the hi resolution models are not totally out to lunch. Colder air works into the region behind the cold front and showers remain possible on Sunday especially for the high country.
The strongest wind was typically associated with the cold front though a few storms did produce strong wind as well.
759 PM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018 Low pressure pressure along a stationary front across the area will move northeast of the area this evening.
Elsewhere, lows expected in the low to mid 20s. Have placed the highest POPS of around 40 pct across the northwest mountains, with a diminishing chance of measurable precip southeast (downwind) of the mountains. Model 800mb temps support max temps no better than the low 30s in the northwest, to the low and mid 40s across the southeast counties.
Aloft - A long wave trough from Quebec to the eastern Gulf of Mexico pivots out over the Atlantic by Sun afternoon. with a short wave trough on the southeast U. northwesterly flow continues above the central and western states with a couple of embedded short wave troughs. Surface - High pressure sprawling outward from the central plains tracks eastward. this propels a cold front over the southeastern states this afternoon in northern FL evening then central or south central FL during Sun. A ridge of Atlantic high pressure south of the Florida Keys tonight drops down over Cuba Sun.
High pressure will continue to build into the region tonight with clouds clearing out.
The Tri-State area will see mostly rain and freezing rain, but some areas could see light snowfall. Our eastern Colorado counties are expected to see the heaviest freezing rain totals, with highest estimated values up to 0. For Sunday, high pressure is expected to build back into the area allowing us to see a warming trend.
A bitter cold night for the month of April is expected across the Mid-South as high pressure builds into the area. High pressure will continue to build into the region tonight with clouds clearing out.
Highs today will should make it into the low 40s. Lows tonight should be in the mid to upper 20s for most, with the low 20s expected in northeast MO, which will be closer to the center of the high. The main difference seems to be moisture in the lower levels with the NAM displaying less than the other models. Some snow accumulation is possible, but it will be a little difficult with the ground being relatively warm and surface temperatures only hovering around freezing. After sunset, the system starts to move out and we lose moisture in the snow growth zone, so precipitation type should transition to freezing drizzle for areas in northeast MO.
610 PM CDT Sat Apr 7 2018 1026 mb Canadian high pressure extending from the central Canadian prairies sse into the central plains, will drift se over IL by sunrise Sunday, and into the Ohio river valley by Sunday afternoon. Highs Sunday in the low to mid 40s central IL, and upper 40s southeast of I-70.
949 PM CDT Sat Apr 7 2018 The only minor change we made to the late evening update was to eliminate the mention of freezing drizzle on the leading edge of precip as it moves into the southwest later tonight. We do lose ice on the back edge of precip and there was already a mention of freezing drizzle Sunday morning in the far southwest. There is a slight chance of freezing drizzle before the onset of snow, however, any ice accumulations are expected to be minimal.
/issued 408 PM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018/ Overnight, a cold front will push closer and the convective activity will return across much of Southwest Florida and the Lake Okeechobee region. The low level jet is strongest north of the area, hence why the Storm Prediction Center keeps the marginal and slight risk areas north of Glades County and the lake this afternoon.
1013 PM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018 Low pressure will intensify and move NE up the coast, while a back door front moves through our region tonight. An upepr trough will bring light rain overnight, then expect clearing skies Sunday morning.
Raised some lows by a degree or two across central and southern portions of the area, raising most of those areas to above freezing. As skies clear and winds diminish, sheltered locations will likely still fall to freezing or just below in these areas, and do not see a reason to change the Freezing Warning at this point.
604 PM CDT Sat Apr 7 2018 High pressure over the region currently brining the area unseasonable cold temperatures will remain over the area through tonight. THe high will shift east of the area through the morning hours Sunday as low pressure moves into the plains. Models continue to show a clipper system moving out of the plains in advance of the low. Sunday night will see southerly winds begin to bring warmer air into the area. Night time lows will still fall to around the freezing make but will not be as cold as this weekend.
/28/ Tonight through Sunday: The primary concerns tonight will be shower and thunderstorm chances late this afternoon into early this evening, and then the potential for freezing temperatures later tonight into early Sunday morning. Expect sunny skies to allow for much more comfortable conditions by Sunday afternoon as weak high pressure becomes centered over the area.
In the low to mid levels of the atmosphere, an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across Cuba overnight. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a trough of low pressure will progress eastward over the Florida peninsula tonight.
/Issued 329 PM CDT Sat Apr 7 2018/ Skies continue to clear from north to south this evening as unseasonably cold high pressure builds into the southern plains. There may be some very light freezing/frozen precip across parts of far northeast Oklahoma late tonight through mid morning, however no accumulations are expected at this time.
Otherwise some snow will continue over the higher mtns overnight. QPFs continue to drop off but should still see another 4-7 inches on the higher peaks so continued the winter wx advy there. Warmer tomorrow as the cold surface airmass continues to move out with downsloping flow.
However, the clearing is expected to cease shortly after 12Z Sunday near or just S of I-20 across N LA/E TX, as the low level flow quickly comes around out of the S by mid to late morning. Thus, have maintained high based MVFR cigs at GGG/TYR/LFK through the remainder of the TAF period, with the low VFR cigs returning to the remainder of Nrn LA/SW AR from late morning through early afternoon over areas that will clear or scatter out. Our freeze warning is unchanged with guidance steady on the freezing line. Other low lying areas well North of I-20 in Bowie, Caddo, Bossier and Webster will briefly drop into the lower 30s right at daybreak. The next couple of cold fronts this week look quite dry for anything other than increasing clouds and shifting winds.
A low pressure system over the ne pac was spinning moisture into the region and this will persist overnight.
1027 PM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018 Low pressure moves away tonight with high pressure for Sunday.
721 PM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018 Low pressure moves away tonight with high pressure for Sunday.
Have lowered POPs to near zero across the Lower Susq Valley, where dewpoints are running in the mid teens at 20Z. Clearing skies and light wind will result in another very cold night for early April with lows ranging from the upper teens over the northwest counties, to the mid and upper 20s across the Lower Susq Valley. There may be a few brief snow showers downwind of the lower Lakes across north- central/NW PA.
1036 PM CDT Sat Apr 7 2018 Temps around se Tx and srn louisiana are in the lower 40s with winds from 8 to 14 mph. It has been awhile since we had temps this low.
An upper trough axis will finally swing through the forecast area this evening, but we're already seeing much drier air advect in from the northwest. With the sunshine, temps in the north have rebounded to around 40 degrees and will top out in the low to mid 40s over the next few hours. Tonight, Canadian high pressure will build southeast over Illinois and Indiana. Mid-level cloud cover will increase during the afternoon ahead of another wave of low pressure. Low pressure drops southeast over Iowa, and winds quickly swing southerly and advect in some warmer air ahead of the low.
Expect the precipitation to generally end by early Sunday, with warmer air moving into the region.
1136 PM CDT Sat Apr 7 2018 High pressure over the region currently brining the area unseasonable cold temperatures will remain over the area through tonight. THe high will shift east of the area through the morning hours Sunday as low pressure moves into the plains. Models continue to show a clipper system moving out of the plains in advance of the low. Sunday night will see southerly winds begin to bring warmer air into the area. Night time lows will still fall to around the freezing make but will not be as cold as this weekend.
731 PM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018 A quiet and cold weekend is expected as high pressure builds into the region.
There is a slight chance of freezing drizzle before the onset of snow, however, any ice accumulations are expected to be minimal.
734 PM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018 High pressure and a seasonably cool airmass will remain in place across the region through Sunday.
Surface dewpoints also in the lower 40s which again is in record territory indicating the moisture is taking up a lot of the profile and moderate to heavy precipitation will be highly probable over the next 12 to 18 hours. KGJX has been blossoming the past hour or so with stratiform precipitation as isentropic upglide is occurring along and over the warm front. This threat should linger through about midnight however forcing from the cold front sweeping southward through the early morning hours will keep a mention of an isolated storm through the predawn hours. The arrival of the cold front to NE. There will be some instability for the front to mingle with through sunrise so there is likely to be some better amounts on the higher peaks and expect some travel issues along the 550 passes.
Only areas along the Buffalo Ridge may see an isolated 6 inch total as upslope along this feature will aid in higher totals.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 30 58 43 62 / 10 0 40 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 26 54 38 58 / 10 0 40 40 Oak Ridge, TN 27 54 38 59 / 10 0 30 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 25 50 34 53 / 20 0 40 50 TN.
No significant updates were made to tonight's forecast; the chance of strong to severe thunderstorms has ended with a few showers still possible as the cold front slowly moves across our area. Lows will range from mid-upper 40s across our northern areas to mid-upper 50s across the southern FL Big Bend region as cooler air filters into our area behind the front.
1021 PM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018 High pressure and a seasonably cool airmass will remain in place across the region through Sunday.
The area of low pressure that brought the gusty winds to the region will move east overnight, leaving dry and slightly cooler conditions for Sunday.
Later tonight, the frontal boundary, which is now to the southwest, will be pushed east into our area as a warm front. The temperature profile is such that mixed precipitation is expected: snow, freezing rain, and maybe rain. An upper ridge will move east across Montana today. This will allow for somewhat warmer temperatures. A frontal boundary over Western Montana will begin to move east as a warm front today with moisture overrunning it.
/issued 408 PM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018/ A cold front is pushing across the southeastern United States this afternoon. Ahead of the front, a trough with showers and thunderstorms is making its way to through the northeastern Gulf of Mexico towards the peninsula of Florida. The low level jet is strongest north of the area, hence why the Storm Prediction Center keeps the marginal and slight risk areas north of Glades County and the lake this afternoon.
Stratus has also developed across most of western Nebraska behind a cold front. Northeast winds continued to gust to round 25 mph across southeastern areas as cooler air pushed into the region. An upper trough from Montana through northwest Colorado will lift quickly northeast today into the Dakotas.
Weak upper level troughing and deep moisture are expected to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across most of the area from the mid-afternoon hours through the early evening. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to be mainly in the upper 80s with muggy dewpoints in the low to mid 70s.
The good news is that there should be less additional smoke with cooler temperatures and decreased fire activity.
Widespread dense valley fog has developed this morning across much of the area as high pressure has settled over the region. The weak disturbance that has become semi-stationary aloft within the ridge, and created showers over the past couple days, will again bring the chance for a few showers and possibly a rumble of thunder, over NEPA Sat afternoon.
High pressure east of Central Indiana will bring more warm and humid late summer weather to Central Indiana today and Tonight.
423 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 High pressure will provide our region with beautiful weather this weekend, including summerlike temperatures with highs averaging out within a few degrees of 80 each day.
125 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 Another day with the stalled front and trough across the area. Guidance continues to hold onto the dominant upper level ridge across the eastern CONUS through the weekend; however, there continues to be some nudging to the east which could bring the upstream trough further east towards the Upper Peninsula.
Surface observations show an easterly wind of 10 mph or less with temperatures in the lower to mid 80s.
High temperatures will reach into the lower 90s, but with the drier air and dewpoints falling into the low and mid 70s, heat indices will generally stay below 100.
Early morning surface analysis had a 1022mb high centered over the Ohio Valley that was ridging back across our CWA.