Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
638 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 Canadian high pressure will build into the area tonight with slowly clearing skies and chilly temperatures with areas of frost expected. High pressure remains atop the region for the remainder of the week with fair weather expected along with mild temperatures. Some blocking flow may hold clouds til Midnight but then quickly dissipate thereafter. A few sprinkles and summit level freezing drizzle has persisted this afternoon, but with thinning moisture profiles this should wane and end through the evening hours. High pressure will continue to build into the region tonight with skies clearing over time as winds abate to light. By Tuesday into Tuesday night high pressure will build atop and east of the area with mainly clear/sunny skies expected outside a few passing high clouds.
123 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 After a cool start to the week, building high pressure will result in dry and gradually warming weather through the rest of the week. Just a few isolated showers remain from this morning's activity as the upper-level trough swings through. Tonight, high pressure building at the surface will lead to clear sky and calming winds. Some locations could see below freezing readings, but most of these will be in the valleys of the high terrain and across the north, where the growing season has already ended. High pressure will remain firmly entrenched over the area through the middle of the week, ensuring a dry forecast.
356 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017 High pressure will bring an unseasonably cool airmass to Southeast Texas over the next couple of days.
At the sfc, weak lee troughing will prevail. The net result is mainly clear skies and highs in the lower to mid 70s. Winds may be slightly weaker and highs look to be slightly warmer. Fire weather doesn't appear to be elevated as higher dewpoints will advect in with the continued southerly winds/lee troughing.
It will be dry with temperatures gradually rising to well above normal values later this week, and lasting right through this upcoming weekend as a large area of high pressure builds in. Scattered to BKN cu or strato cu clouds will persist through the rest of the daylight hours as a sharp mid-upper thermal trough slides across the region. The clouds and wind will diminish after dusk, leading to a clear, nearly calm and frosty night area-wide as high pressure builds in from the west at the surface and aloft.
259 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017 Subtle upper level ridge only producing clouds where it interacts with highest elevations in the Rockies evident on satellite imagery will shift east over the next 48 hours.
The high will begin to slide east of the area tonight.
Underneath the high. The cold spots tonight look to be over parts of Northwest Arkansas as they remain on the westward side of the high pressure center. some valley locations could see temperatures dip down close to the freezing mark along with patchy areas of frost.
Minimum temps will drop into the low to mid 50s most areas, which is the coolest we've seen since May.
238 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 Cold front currently crossing the southeast Midlands and CSRA will move east of the area late this afternoon. High pressure will build in behind the cold front along with cooler and drier air for Tuesday through the end of the week. Cold front currently crossing southeast Midlands and CSRA will move east of the area late this afternoon. As the cold front pushes east of the forecast area late this afternoon drier air will overtake the forecast area with pwat values dropping below one inch by late afternoon in the central Midlands and early evening in the eastern Midlands. Low temperatures tonight will be much cooler with mid 40s to around 50 and slightly warmer along lake shores.
High pressure will continue to build into the area through today, with a steady cold advection component persisting behind the front. Tuesday will be another dry day with sunny skies and temps a couple/few degrees warmer. High pressure at the surface and increasing upper ridging by the end of the week will continue to keep things dry across our region.
This wind flow along with weak low level WAA and an increase in high clouds late will be somewhat balanced by low surface dew points leading to mins in the lower to mid 40s. trof scooting into the western Atlantic. The lower tropospheric high will continue to slowly retreat with south-southwesterly low level flow and pronounced WAA. The low level WAA regime remains intact with south-southwest low level flow.
/issued 342 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017/ Weak area of low pressure over the Western Atlantic gets embedded with an upper trough that digs into the southeast plains today into Tuesday. The trough will push a cold front over the Tennessee Valley and northern Florida today into Tuesday.
521 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 After a cool start to the week, building high pressure will result in dry and gradually warming weather through the rest of the week. Otherwise, cu should diminish with the loss of heating this evening, with clear skies and calm winds dominating under building high pressure. High pressure will remain firmly entrenched over the area through the middle of the week, ensuring a dry forecast.
A decent pressure gradient between low pressure well to the north across northern Ontario and high pressure across the Tennessee Valley will lead to a bit of a breeze. A moisture starved cold front will then move through around midday Tuesday with nothing more than a wind shift really. Another, broader upper ridge will be building to our west after that. Moisture is present thru that period at and above 15k ft, thanks to the upper trof. Would not be totally shocked to see a few raindrops north of the Bridge, but the POP tops out at 10 percent.
There should be enough of a surface pressure gradient overnight, with high pressure to the south and a low to the north, to keep winds up, preventing temperatures from tanking.
Very mild autumn weather to continue through Tuesday with temperatures progged to warm through the low to mid 70s to much of the south and west Tuesday afternoon.
202 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 After a cool start to the week, building high pressure will result in dry and gradually warming weather through the rest of the week. Tonight, high pressure building at the surface will lead to clear sky and calming winds. Some locations could see below freezing readings, but most of these will be in the valleys of the high terrain and across the north, where the growing season has already ended. High pressure will remain firmly entrenched over the area through the middle of the week, ensuring a dry forecast.
Higher pressure is building in across the region behind last nights cold front this afternoon with skies mostly sunny southwest and partly cloudy northeast. The highest elevations of the mountains in east Tennessee and southwest Virginia lows will drop to around freezing and in higher valleys of northeast Tennessee.
Scattered showers and weak thunderstorms have developed along and ahead of the cold front that is draped across the region at this hour. With it's current pace, the front should clear the CWA no later than mid- evening, giving way to cloudy and much cooler conditions. Expect overnight lows to fall into the lower 50s across the northern half of the CWA under mostly clear skies, with low to mid 60s across the southern half, where cloud cover will remain prevalent overnight.
Pleasant, dry, and mild weather will be the rule this week as high pressure dominates the area. A gradual warmup can be expected into the early part of the weekend before a cold front moves into the area late this weekend bringing the next chance for showers. A very quiet short term is expected as high pressure remains the dominant force across the area.
Water vapor imagery at 18Z shows upper level ridging over the Pacific Northwest, creating northwest flow over western Kansas this afternoon. Temperatures will reach the lower 70s, which is normal for this time of the year. With the deepening surface lee trough in eastern Colorado, southerly wind speeds will reach 15-20 mph sustained, with gusts up to 35 mph. Relative humidities in the lower 20s this afternoon will make for a low-end risk of fire danger for our central zones through about 0Z. Temperatures will dip into the lower 40s, which is again, normal for this time of the year. Winds may be slightly weaker and highs look to be slightly warmer. Fire weather doesn't appear to be elevated as higher dewpoints will advect in with the continued southerly winds/lee troughing.
307 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017 Quiet and cool conditions will prevail for another night across central and SE Illinois, as we experience the second night of Canadian high pressure.
315 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 A cold front will push off the East Coast this evening into tonight.
Southwest low level winds are becoming established across the latter area as the lee trough deepens and the anticyclone exits to the southeast. Low temperatures tonight will be warmer than this morning with stronger southwest winds, particularly off the surface, and the dry air off the surface should keep anything more than steam fog from forming. 850-925mb temperature trends support highs Tuesday a few degrees warmer than today.
Temperatures will only top out in the low to middle 60s -- with upper 50s on the Plateau -- and throw in a breezy afternoon, it's a little chilly out there. Under high pressure and clear skies, Tuesday morning lows should fall into the upper 30s and low 40s for everyone.
300 PM MDT Mon Oct 16 2017 Broad upper ridge is in place over the western half of the country. At the surface, a weak trof is shifting east across the Dakotas. Persistent upper ridge will bring warm and dry weather to the region through the week.
Breezy southwest flow is expected to develop across the plains extending from the southwestern US into the Upper Midwest ahead of a cold front moving through the region tonight.
1220 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017 VFR conditions will continue through the 16/18Z TAF period, as SKC will prevail with sfc ridging and a dry NW flow aloft persisting across the region.
High pressure centered over MO/AR will slide east to TN/KY by morning and this will likely allow some light southwesterly winds overnight. they may end up holding steady in the lower 40s overnight and then rise quickly Tuesday morning.
211 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 A cold front is approaching the north Florida Panhandle at this hour, with the parent low churning northeastward off the Canadian Maritimes. The feature to watch in the forecast remains the high pressure moving across the central United States behind the cold front moving into the northern Gulf of Mexico.
131 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017 An upper level ridge of high pressure centered across Mexico will dominate the weather through tomorrow resulting in mostly clear skies and a moderation of temperatures to near normal values by Tuesday afternoon.
355 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 High pressure will build over the region tonight leading to a cold and frosty Tuesday morning. This high pressure will remain in place over New York and Pennsylvania for the remainder of the week with a moderating temperature trend.
RH will drop down into the lower 20s across the west river counties, but winds appear too light/marginal to warrant headlines for fire weather. Warmer air aloft will spread over the region on Tuesday as well, so we will bump temps up even higher with readings topping out in the mid to upper 70s for many areas.
227 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017 A beautiful fall work-week is in store as high pressure continues to dominate our weather. Highs today will be slightly warmer than yesterday, mid to upper 60s, as surface winds back to the southwest. High temperatures will increase a couple degrees each day this week as we remain in southwesterly flow at the surface and more amplified upper level ridging moves in overhead.
204 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 Cold front currently crossing the southeast Midlands and CSRA will move east of the area late this afternoon. High pressure will build in behind the cold front along with cooler and drier air for Tuesday through the end of the week. Cold front currently crossing southeast Midlands and CSRA will move east of the area late this afternoon. As the cold front pushes east of the forecast area late this afternoon drier air will overtake the forecast area with pwat values dropping below one inch by late afternoon in the central Midlands and early evening in the eastern Midlands. Low temperatures tonight will be much cooler with mid 40s to around 50 and slightly warmer along lake shores.
After that point winds begin to taper off for most locations, with the exception of the higher elevations above 900 feet.
312 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 High pressure will build into the region through the week. Otherwise, expect the cu field to dissipate as the low level flow backs and we begin to lose the daytime heating. Temperatures will begin to moderate with highs on Tuesday in the low to mid 60s. Lows Tuesday night will range from the upper 30s in the east to the lower 40s across the west.
Upper high pressure building in from the west will keep a dry west to northwest flow across the region.
Upper level troughing over the area early this week gives way to a more zonal flow pattern mid to late this week. Upper level trough slides across northern Ontario late Wed into Wed night. Low pressure tied to that troughing moves from western Canada Sat to scntrl Canada on Sat. Upper Great Lakes will be within low-level southwesterly flow ahead of the low. Conservative estimates would put high temps into the low 70s both days.
High pressure brought clear skies and seasonable temps this afternoon into the lower to middle 60s. Forecast lows are in the lower to middle 40s.
High pressure building in the wake of yesterday's cold front will result in a very quiet weather pattern through the short term period. Winds will gradually shift from north to northeast tonight and tomorrow, then more easterly overnight tomorrow night as high pressure begins shifting eastward. Will be just a degree or two warmer for Tuesday night. Highs Tuesday expected a degree or two warmer than today.
Surface pressure gradient will tighten today as high pressure moves east, and southerly winds will increase. Highs Tuesday should reach the lower and mid 70s.
today sees another unseasonal warm and very dry day with the thermal trough on the coast that gave the region offshore flow moving inland. The thermal trough will deepens slightly along the coast this evening, returning weak offshore flow to the southern coast and the southern coastal ranges in Curry and Josephine county. On Tuesday the flow will swing around to onshore flow ahead of a weak cold front. With a very dry air mass over the region this front might bring sprinkles to the norther fringes of the west side, but its main effect will be moistening up the low level air mass and virga should be the prevalent outcome of this front.
Although the exact day of the highest fire weather danger has been shifting over the past few model runs, guidance has been consistent in showing warm, dry, and windy conditions during the week.
1107 AM MDT Mon Oct 16 2017 Broad upper ridge is building over the western half of the country. At the surface, a trough is pushing into the northern plains. Upper ridging will bring warm and dry weather to the region through the week.
A warming trend will continue through the middle portion of the week as high pressure remains in place.
But it continue to weaken and should exit the forecast area by 18Z as the 850mb cold front exits. Winds will be breezy due to the pressure gradient associated with high pressure building over the Ozarks/Lower Ohio Valley, with gusts to around 20 kts also helping it feel more like fall. The cold front has pushed south of the area this morning with northerly flow present across Central AL. Much cooler temperatures today and tonight with lows dropping into the upper 40s to low 50s by early tomorrow morning. Ridging builds in across the Southeast US Tuesday and sets up over the Central Appalachians through the weekend. This will result in cooler and drier easterly flow for Central AL.
Overnight water vapor loop depicted a upper trough axis over the Midwest, and broad ridge over the western CONUS. The surface and upper ridge will be the prevailing features for our CWA through the short term. Gusty downsloping westerly winds will promote warmer than normal daytime temperatures and a dry air mass. High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s lower elevations, with 40s and 50s for the high country.
Weak ridging remains in place over the intermountain west and SE Wyoming/W Nebraska will lie on the southern fringe of moderately fast zonal flow aloft.
Tue through Wed night, the high pressure ridge will drift off to the east allowing surface winds to gradually gain a southerly component. The pressure gradient is progged to increase a bit late Wed in response to a dry cold front passing by to the north, resulting in a gentle southerly breeze Wed night.
/issued 347 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017/ (Today and Tonight) A cold start to the morning is expected across West Central Texas, with most locations in the low to mid 40s. Plentiful sunshine today will allow temperatures to top out in the low to mid 70s this afternoon. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the low to mid 40s, with some low lying areas dropping into the upper 30s.
132 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 High pressure will build across the region tonight into Tuesday with fair but chilly conditions. The high will move off the eastern seaboard for mid to late week, allowing dry conditions to persist, with temperatures trending back to above seasonal levels. In addition winds will start to diminish this evening as a large ridge of high pressure builds into the region from Canada. The center of the ridge of high pressure will be directly overhead.
145 PM PDT Mon Oct 16 2017 Weakening high pressure aloft will bring another hot day to the region on Tuesday.
144 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 Aviation An area of high pressure in the Middle Mississippi Valley will build east today and into the Central Appalachians for tonight.
Thus, cooler NAM guidance more in line with fcst. /issued 1220 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017/ VFR conditions will continue through the 16/18Z TAF period, as SKC will prevail with sfc ridging and a dry NW flow aloft persisting across the region.
345 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 Canadian high pressure will build into the area tonight with slowly clearing skies and chilly temperatures with areas of frost expected. High pressure remains atop the region for the remainder of the week with fair weather expected along with mild temperatures. A few sprinkles and summit level freezing drizzle has persisted this afternoon, but with thinning moisture profiles this should wane and end through the evening hours. High pressure will continue to build into the region tonight with skies clearing over time as winds abate to light. By Tuesday into Tuesday night high pressure will build atop and east of the area with mainly clear/sunny skies expected outside a few passing high clouds.
High pressure will dominate the remainder of the work week with light south and southwesterly winds keeping temperatures near to above average.
Latest rap and satellite imagery showed a strong upper trough moving through the eastern CONUS. This was dragging a cold front east of the region. Unlike yesterday readings were more seasonable across the region from the middle 60s to the lower 70s. It will be a cool night as high pressure builds in from the northwest with below average lows from near 40 to the middle 40s. For Tuesday sunny skies and continued cool conditions will be the general rule with highs from the lower to middle 70s. /17/ Tuesday night through the coming weekend: Consensus of latest model solutions have come in a little more stoutly with the warm up and also a little more vigorously with regard to the upper level trough energy digging toward the south- central states by the end of the week and through the weekend.
High pressure will remain over the region through Tuesday with above normal temperatures and dry conditions. A weak sub-tropical system will push through the area Tuesday Night bringing increased clouds and isolated mountain showers to the higher Sierras.
A weak lee side trough has already increased winds across the plains, and breezy southwest winds will continue through sunset.
250 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 A cold front will exit the coast this afternoon. Cool high pressure will build into the region tonight and Tuesday and persist into the first part of the weekend. Strong CAA this evening and overnight will result in much cooler temperatures than we have become accustomed to over the past couple of weeks, with jacket/sweater wearing temperatures down into the lower to mid 40s tonight. With the cold front exiting to the east high pressure will begin to build over the area with the high centered to the northwest of the forecast area.
128 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 Light rainfall chances peak this morning as a fast-moving cold front moves through the area. Warmer temperatures will return later this week as deep-layer ridging sets up over the Southeast US. Sun coming out should start bringing the temps up, but KAVL with stout gap wind will struggle to get much warmer than it is now.
Dew points are currently in the low 40s but will likely fall a bit more as weak northerly flow brings drier air in from Missouri and Kentucky. Highs tomorrow will rebound into the low 70s across most of the Midsouth. The ridge will slowly shift East allowing temperatures to rebound a couple degrees each day through the remainder of the work week. A secondary ridge will build over the region during the end of the work week, but weak southerly flow at the surface will keep conditions from cooling off much if any.
The entire area lies east of a lee-side trough over the Front Range. Far western portions of the NE Colorado counties next to nothing for winds at this time due to their proximity to the trough axis. Winds will begin to abate as well by then with the trough beginning to work off the Front Range going into the evening hours. The transition from SSW flow to WNW flow overnight will afford the CWA overnight lows in a range from the mid 30s to the lower 40s with cooler air filtering into the region behind the trough. WNW upper flow will begin to shift to more zonal as the upper ridge over the west begins to flatten. This will be due to a digging trough coming into the Pacific coast.
While there are still large discrepancies among the global models as to the specifics, they generally agree on a trough traversing through the Intermountain West and into the Plains states, kicking off unsettled weather at the surface. While no two weather events are the same, models are depicting a similar scenario of this past weekend with upper trough exiting the ImW, triggering cyclogenesis, leading to a cold front dragging through the region, and triggering storms along and ahead of it. There is a chance STJ could see some fog again tomorrow morning, with lows forecast in the low 40s and the MO River around 58 degrees F.
Isolated lower readings in the low to mid 30s could be possible in the sheltered valley areas from Sterling City south to Mertzon. A weak zonal flow or flat ridging pattern will develop aloft from Tuesday into the second half of the week. This will allow southerly low level flow to become established across the area, bringing moisture and warmer weather back into west central Texas.
318 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017 What a difference a day makes! Temperatures behind last night's cold front have been running 10 to 15 degrees lower than the same time yesterday. Most places have reached the lower 70s and likely will only see another degree or two of warming.
Temps will be a few degrees warmer with highs in the mid 70s as adiabatic mixing allows efficient warming from 900mb or so during the late afternoon. Wed seems to offer the best potential for fire weather conditions, principally over the Devils Lake basin, as humidity values below 25 percent will couple with northwest winds (after an earlier cold frontal passage) exceeding 25 mph.