Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
In response winds across the forecast area will come out of the south to southwest, picking up some late tonight as pressures fall in response to an upper level short wave trough moving across the Cascades toward the northern Rockies. Further pressure falls as the upper trough moves to the northern Plains will see a further increase in wind speeds, up solidly into a range from 15-30 mph. Building thermal ridge resulting from the robust low level warm advection will push temperatures into the 80s for close to all of the forecast area Monday afternoon.
The upper-level trough exits to the east late this afternoon, resulting in calm winds and clear skies overnight as high pressure moves through the area. With lows in the low to mid 30s, some frost development is expected, especially in northern portions of the Quad State. Tomorrow, winds shift to southerly across the middle of the country due to a low pressure system in Southern Saskatchewan.
424 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021 Showers will taper off this evening as low pressure exits east. With lingering low level moisture and a tight pressure gradient, gusty winds and isolated showers will continue into the late evening in the wake of an exiting cold front. Prevailing cold advection after midnight may change isolated rain showers to snow showers in the higher terrain and near I-80. Dry weather is expected Monday as high pressure slides over the region, with abundant insolation.
The most intense winds appear likely to occur from 4 PM to 10 PM from the lower Columbia Basin east to the Blue Mountain foothills, including Tri-Cities, Boardman/Heppner, Pendleton, Walla Walla, and Dayton. In addition, with many fields having been recently plowed, blowing dust will become a concern with the potential for prolonged blowing dust and visibility reductions across the lower Columbia Basin east to the Blue Mountains foothills.
Ahead of this system, a transitory ridge will keep things dry and push temperatures above normal today. The ridge will be forced into the Plains by sunrise on Monday as the upstream storm drops into the Northern Rockies. The combo of wind and snow will create some tricky driving conditions in the High County late in the day, however. Momentum Xfer numbers on the Bufkit profiles along the Highway 40 corridor show the potential for gusts in excess of 50 mph and would not bet against 60+ mph gusts coming out of some of the showers pre and post fropa. Temperatures ahead of the front over much of the southern half of the CWA will be some 5 to 10 degrees above normal with a few 70 degree readings in the lower deserts.
Red Flag Warning remains in affect across much of the CWA for this threat as well as the cold front for tomorrow. Strong cold front still looks to impact the region on Monday.
1015 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021 A strong cold front and a QLCS line of storms roared across the Tennessee Valley in a WNW-ESE manner overnight, bringing a brief but heavy dose of rain and strong gusty winds.
243 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021 A strong cold front will pass through the area late this afternoon and early this evening. Severe thunderstorms are possible ahead of the cold front.
315 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021 The heavier showers have ended, although a few light showers linger across the region behind the cold front under an upslope component. The back edge of steady rain is currently arriving in our western counties shortly behind the cold front. A cold front was just about to enter the JKL forecast area from the northwest at 6 AM. The cold front will pass through this morning, and rain will taper off as high pressure builds in from the west. Gusty west winds will carry in much cooler and drier air. The high will move over our area late tonight, allowing winds to diminish. This will set us up for cold temperatures, with frost and/or freezing temperatures expected by dawn.
High pressure builds in behind the exiting front with a much cooler and drier airmass moving in across the state Tonight and Monday.
20z surface analysis had warm front from SK into central SD with 3-5mb/3hr pressure falls along it. Water vapour matinee had upper ridge peaking over the northern Plains with upper trough carving out over BC. Effect of this upstream trough the main forecast concern. Tonight, upper trough races into the northern Rockies pushing a cold front into MT. 40-55kt 850-700mb winds will promote high wind over much of the area with the initial cold front passage and then again in the late afternoon/early evening as a secondary push of cold air/pressures rises combine with steep low level lapse rates. Moisture will be scant so pops limited to the higher terrain of northeast WY/Black Hills where mid-level moisture/forcing combines.
841 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021 An upper trough will pass over Pennsylvania tonight, then high pressure will build into the state on Monday.
/issued 251 PM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021/ The tail end of an upper trough centered over the Great Lakes this morning will sag across the area today.
Still expecting winds to come back around to the SE (but remain under 10 knots) during the day tomorrow as high pressure moves off to the east. Cloud cover will scatter out and winds relax overnight as high pressure settles into the region. Cool overnight/morning temps will transition to some really pleasant wx on Monday with msunny skies, low RH's and temps making their way into the lower 70s.
731 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021 Showers will taper off this evening as low pressure exits east. With lingering low level moisture and a tight pressure gradient, gusty winds and isolated showers will continue into the late evening in the wake of an exiting cold front. Prevailing cold advection after midnight may change isolated rain showers to snow showers in the higher terrain and near I-80. Dry weather is expected Monday as high pressure slides over the region, with abundant insolation.
1007 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021 Mean layer ridging has relaxed a little over the past 24 hours, with cooling at 700 mb, and height falls at 500 and 300 mb. Regional observations and radar imagery place the trailing edge of a cold front over northern Florida, while low level ridging stretches west across South Florida and the Keys. Subtle changes in the mean layer ridging resulted in subtle changes in the success of the mesoscale circulations.
612 PM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021 A warmup has commenced across our region in rising heights/ridging behind an upper trough exiting east of the MO River. Monday will see even warmer weather ahead of an approaching cold frontal boundary. A deepening upper trough emerging from the northern Rockies will send a strong cold front south through our region Monday night, bringing an end to our warm temps for a few days.
644 PM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021 (This evening through Monday) High pressure is currently sprawled out across most of the southern Plains this afternoon, while a cold front is draped along the Texas Gulf Coast. By tonight, high pressure will shift eastward, which should allow winds to shift out of the southeast. Skies will be clear, allowing low temperatures to fall into the low to mid 40s. High temperatures are expected to reach into the upper 70s to low 80s as a warmer airmass is advected into the region. Lows will be in the lower to mid 50s.
504 PM MDT Sun Mar 28 2021 A few clouds overhead as a 500mb shallow trough clips the region to the north, causing gusty winds across southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle. At this time, the only High Wind Warning is for these wind-prone corridors, but Warnings expand after midnight to include the lower elevations of Albany, Converse and Carbon Counties as the next trough drops out of the Pacific northwest and approaches the region. A very strong and mostly dry cold front will accompany this trough, increasing gradient winds over the aforementioned lower elevations.
909 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021 Updated 910 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021 Wind gusts have subsided quite a bit over the last hour or so, and continue to expect them to diminish in strength as high pressure moves in from the west. Sharp upper level trough is swinging overhead this afternoon and will continue off to the east later this evening and overnight. Winds will diminish this evening, dropping off very quickly after 00z as high pressure begins to build in from the west. High pressure overnight will bring calm winds and clear skies, with chilly conditions early Monday. Expect frost with lows in the low to mid 30s.
212 PM PDT Sun Mar 28 2021 Ridging aloft will be replaced by weak upper troughing on Monday as an upper trough dives southeast across the Rockies.
Once the WAA driven clouds exit the area Monday morning, much warmer air will surge into the region via a strong south/southwesterly 850mb (45 to 55 kt) jet.
940 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021 A strong cold front pushes off the coast shortly after midnight.
Strong gusty winds accompany a cold front that moves across the Great Basin on Monday.
Much cooler and drier air will overspread the area by Monday morning with lows in the mid 30s north to 40s elsewhere.
/Tonight/ The evening water vapor imagery indicates that NE to SW upper trough continuing to sag SE out of the TN Valley into the SE CONUS, with the SW extent of the trough slowing its progress as the parent low exits the OH Valley into the NE. Meanwhile, sfc ridging is anchored over the Mid and Lower MS Valley this evening, which will provide for good radiational cooling areawide overnight as winds have decoupled under a clear sky. Thus, temps should continue to fall well into the lower 40s areawide, although the more protected areas of SE OK/SW AR could see patchy frost as temps fall into the upper 30s.
Relative humidity through tonight ahead of a cold front, expected Monday morning, were updated to be more representative of the exceptionally dry conditions experienced today.
A warmup has commenced across our region in rising heights/ridging behind an upper trough exiting east of the MO River. Monday will see even warmer weather ahead of an approaching cold frontal boundary. A deepening upper trough emerging from the northern Rockies will send a strong cold front south through our region Monday night, bringing an end to our warm temps for a few days.
554 PM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021 High pressure centered over the Red River Valley this afternoon brought northerly winds and cooler temperatures to the region. Most locations were topping out about 20 degrees cooler than yesterday. Winds will gradually shift to the south tonight as the high pressure center shifts eastward into Tennessee. The pressure gradient tightens up significantly on Monday as low pressure deepens over the central Plains. Combined with the higher winds, opted to keep the Red Flag Watch going and expanded another row of counties eastward.
Gusts 25 to 35 kts will be possible at all sites except KFSM, which should stay sheltered down in the lower Ark River valley. This general area also looks poised to experience the highest grassland fire spread rates and a fire weather watch has been issued for accordingly.
Considerable clouds and a northerly wind component will produce noticeably cooler temps with highs holding in the mid 70s Volusia, warming to the mid 80s over Okeechobee. Cooler temperatures and considerable cloudiness Monday will keep RH values above critical levels.
Gusty northwest winds have diminished over the last couple hours, and will become light/calm soon as a low level ridge axis just to the west shifts overhead. The light winds along with clear skies will set up ideal radiational cooling, allowing lows to drop into the low/mid 30s. Winds slacken going into this evening as surface ridging builds in. Calm winds and clear skies under the influence of high pressure will result in chilly temperatures in the low to mid 30s overnight. Patchy frost may develop on elevated surfaces that fall below freezing. Southwest flow ramps up on Monday, especially over northwest counties as surface ridging moves east.
934 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021 A strong cold front pushes off the coast shortly after midnight.
Calm winds and clear skies have allowed temps to fall into the lower 30s with some additional cooling expected. A strong surge of warm advection will boost temps into the lower to middle 60s for the afternoon. A ridge of high of high pressure will move across and to the east of the area overnight. Our current forecast is higher than some of the consensus data and in the higher end of model guidance for wind gusts and still coming up overall short of criteria.
High pressure will bring warmer afternoon temperatures and clear skies across northern Arizona through Monday.
High pressure will move east tonight as a strong cold front approaches from the PacNW. This cold front will cross into NW Utah by daybreak and into central Utah by early afternoon and through southern Utah Monday evening. Ridging will build in by midweek and remain in place through the remainder of the week with a strong warming trend.
946 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021 A strong cold front will surge east offshore this evening. Cool and dry high pressure will follow later tonight and Monday.
Sharp upper level trough is swinging overhead this afternoon and will continue off to the east later this evening and overnight. Winds will diminish this evening, dropping off very quickly after 00z as high pressure begins to build in from the west. High pressure overnight will bring calm winds and clear skies, with chilly conditions early Monday. Expect frost with lows in the low to mid 30s.
An aggressive low level drying trend will then take hold after 03Z as high pressure expands in from the west, allowing skies to clear. Wind gusts will also slowly decrease although wind gusts to 25 mph will still be possible through much of the evening before the pressure gradient begins to slacken overnight as surface ridging builds east over the central Great Lakes. This ridge will also promote clearing skies overnight with the clearing process beginning slowly this evening. Return southerly flow on the backside of this ridge will lead to some moderation in temperatures on Monday (aided by full late March sunshine). Expect highs to climb back into the lower to mid 50s.
/NEW/ /Tonight through Monday Night/ High pressure is centered just off to our north this evening with northerly winds prevailing across the region.
Slight chance of showers ahead of and along the cold front as it pushes through NE FL, but strong thunderstorms are not expected. Overnight lows will be in the lower 50s in SE GA and middle 50s to lower 60s in NE FL. A cold front will be pushing across southeast GA this evening bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms after 6 pm. Cooler temperatures by morning with lows in the lower 50s north to lower 60s south.
753 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021 A cold front is moving across the state this afternoon.
Cold front currently over the eastern U. Otherwise expect continued warmth although a few degrees cooler Monday afternoon compared to today, with highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s across the Nature Coast and immediate coastal areas, and mid 80s elsewhere with a few southern/interior locations possibly reaching the upper 80s. /issued 157 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021/ The upper level trough racing from the midwest to New England and beyond will have little direct impact on our weather.
511 PM MDT Sun Mar 28 2021 20z surface analysis had warm front from SK into central SD with 3-5mb/3hr pressure falls along it. Water vapour matinee had upper ridge peaking over the northern Plains with upper trough carving out over BC. Effect of this upstream trough the main forecast concern. Tonight, upper trough races into the northern Rockies pushing a cold front into MT. 40-55kt 850-700mb winds will promote high wind over much of the area with the initial cold front passage and then again in the late afternoon/early evening as a secondary push of cold air/pressures rises combine with steep low level lapse rates. Moisture will be scant so pops limited to the higher terrain of northeast WY/Black Hills where mid-level moisture/forcing combines.
KLCH radar shows some light showers lingering acrs Acadiana (and extending over the coastal waters), but these should be diminishing as they exit our the lower Atchafalaya Basin through midnight. Light to near calm winds and clear skies acrs the NW half of the CWA is allowing for good radiational cooling to set up, and temperatures are already running a few degrees cooler than expected. A cold front is currently stretched from the northwest gulf across far SE LA and into the Great Lakes Region. High pressure is across the plains and is building south and east.
Conditions are cooler and calmer than just 24 hours ago. Some areas may drop to the freezing mark with everyone else bottoming out in the mid 30s. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer tomorrow with dry weather continuing.
622 PM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021 High pressure continues to build in during the period promoting clear skies and calmer winds.
The strong cold front is located just west of Baker and Burns, Oregon. Temperatures will be 20-30 degrees cooler on Monday, with highs in most valley locations only in the 40s. A strong cold front passage will bring a few hours of IFR snow showers and mountains obscuration near the front. Cold front will be near BNO BKE around 4z, BOI 7z, TWF JER 10z/Mon.
Definitely cooler conditions prevailed across the greater Tennessee Valley this afternoon.
It will become windy tomorrow with 20-30 kt winds out of the southwest as an upper trough approaches, tightening the surface gradient over the area. In response winds across the forecast area will come out of the south to southwest, picking up some late tonight as pressures fall in response to an upper level short wave trough moving across the Cascades toward the northern Rockies. Further pressure falls as the upper trough moves to the northern Plains will see a further increase in wind speeds, up solidly into a range from 15-30 mph. Building thermal ridge resulting from the robust low level warm advection will push temperatures into the 80s for close to all of the forecast area Monday afternoon.
229 AM MDT Mon Mar 29 2021 A strong cold front will blow through the forecast area early this morning and will move to the east by sunrise or shortly after. Upper low moves along the MT/Canada border today which will bring a secondary cold front through NE Montana in the late morning and early afternoon. Wrap around moisture on the back side of the upper low will bring some additional snow along the Canadian Border this afternoon that will continue into part of tonight in some areas. Will add mention of snow to the High Wind Warning and not issue any winter weather highlights for now. The low moves to the east overnight diminishing the snow.
1136 PM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021 High pressure centered over the Red River Valley this afternoon brought northerly winds and cooler temperatures to the region. Most locations were topping out about 20 degrees cooler than yesterday. Winds will gradually shift to the south tonight as the high pressure center shifts eastward into Tennessee. The pressure gradient tightens up significantly on Monday as low pressure deepens over the central Plains. Combined with the higher winds, opted to keep the Red Flag Watch going and expanded another row of counties eastward. A cold front will move across the area on Tuesday.
1106 PM MDT Sun Mar 28 2021 A few clouds overhead as a 500mb shallow trough clips the region to the north, causing gusty winds across southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle. At this time, the only High Wind Warning is for these wind-prone corridors, but Warnings expand after midnight to include the lower elevations of Albany, Converse and Carbon Counties as the next trough drops out of the Pacific northwest and approaches the region. A very strong and mostly dry cold front will accompany this trough, increasing gradient winds over the aforementioned lower elevations. Cool temperatures Tuesday night with mainly clear skies in the wake of the upper trough.
Gusty northwest winds have diminished over the last couple hours, and will become light/calm soon as a low level ridge axis just to the west shifts overhead. The light winds along with clear skies will set up ideal radiational cooling, allowing lows to drop into the low/mid 30s. Winds slacken going into this evening as surface ridging builds in. Calm winds and clear skies under the influence of high pressure will result in chilly temperatures in the low to mid 30s overnight. Patchy frost may develop on elevated surfaces that fall below freezing. Southwest flow ramps up on Monday, especially over northwest counties as surface ridging moves east. Canadian high pressure builds in behind the front, keeping weather tranquil yet cold for the middle to end of the week.
442 AM EDT Mon Mar 29 2021 High pressure will build over the area today, then slide offshore tonight and Tuesday.
A cold front associated with the upper trough will be approaching from the northwest on Tuesday, with southerly winds increasing ahead of the front. Nearly full sun both days will allow for strong heating, although high clouds will begin to make a showing with the approaching upper trough. Night time temperature should show significant ridge/valley differences due to warm air advection keeping ridges mixed, while good radiating conditions allow valleys to decouple.
144 AM EDT Mon Mar 29 2021 High pressure will build into the state from the Ohio Valley and yield dry weather for today and Tuesday.
Very deep upper trough digging into southwestern Canada on track to move east along the U. Downstream pressure gradient quite strong late tonight through Monday evening in the local area with 850 mb winds increasing to near 50 knots tonight, 60 knots Monday, and 75 knots Monday night before a sharp cold front passes.
Even at 2 am, the southerly winds were in the 15 to 20 mph across the northern South Plains into the southern Texas Panhandle as the Low-level Jet begins to strengthen in response to a mid-level trough moving into the central Rockies and a deepening lee-side trough. An elongated upper trough associated with an upper low moving across southern Canada will bring a cold front southward tomorrow bringing some of the coolest air to the region we have seen in quite a while. For most areas in the FA the high tomorrow will be 10-20 cooler than today's high.
The upper-level trough exits to the east late this afternoon, resulting in calm winds and clear skies overnight as high pressure moves through the area. With lows in the low to mid 30s, some frost development is expected, especially in northern portions of the Quad State. Tomorrow, winds shift to southerly across the middle of the country due to a low pressure system in Southern Saskatchewan. A cold front stretches across the middle of the U. A strong cold front will come blasting across our region Tuesday night, ushering in a chilly air mass.
A few clouds overhead as a 500mb shallow trough clips the region to the north, causing gusty winds across southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle. At this time, the only High Wind Warning is for these wind-prone corridors, but Warnings expand after midnight to include the lower elevations of Albany, Converse and Carbon Counties as the next trough drops out of the Pacific northwest and approaches the region. A very strong and mostly dry cold front will accompany this trough, increasing gradient winds over the aforementioned lower elevations. Cool temperatures Tuesday night with mainly clear skies in the wake of the upper trough.
1223 AM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 (This evening through Monday) High pressure is currently sprawled out across most of the southern Plains this afternoon, while a cold front is draped along the Texas Gulf Coast. By tonight, high pressure will shift eastward, which should allow winds to shift out of the southeast. Skies will be clear, allowing low temperatures to fall into the low to mid 40s. High temperatures are expected to reach into the upper 70s to low 80s as a warmer airmass is advected into the region.