Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The upper low will push into southwestern CO this evening with the associated trough to push southeast across the area by around midnight. A leeside trough will form overnight which will create gusty west winds in the foothills and moderate the minimum temperatures there to remain in the teens, otherwise temperatures across the area will be in the single digits to even below zero in the high mountain valleys as they clear out. Upper level flow pattern will turn more NW with the passing of the trough. Mid level ascent will weaken with slight ridging ahead of the next upper level system.
338 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2017 Near record warmth today ahead of a strong cold front which will pass through the area overnight.
Northerly winds behind the departing cold front will usher in the coldest airmass of the season today and into tonight. The High Wind Warning for this area was allowed to expire at 10 am this morning. The fast moving cold front continues across the area this morning bringing some snow showers across much of the high country, although accumulations are expected to be light. Temperatures will remain cold today with high temperatures struggling to get to freezing across the high country, and lower elevations only reaching into the 50s. Overnight lows Thursday night into Friday will likely be the coldest so far of the season with many high elevations locations dropping into the low teens and single digits.
A warm front will continue to lift northeast through central Missouri early this morning. A sharp cold front will then move through the Ozarks this evening. Areas of west-central Missouri should fall into the lower and middle 30s while areas of south-central Missouri only fall into the middle to upper 40s.
Weak upper ridge will provide the region with dry weather today. Dry and cold today and tonight under short wave ridge in northerly flow aloft. Farther north is a short wave trough that will increase clouds in northern areas Friday leading to a chance of light snow late there in the day.
Yesterday's cold front has swept through the area leaving behind a chilly north wind that will remain through today.
1134 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2017 Water vapor imagery this morning was showing a positive longwave trof extending from central Canada to the southwestern CONUS, with an embedded circulation centered over the Great Basin. Attendant warm front extended from northwest IA into southern MO. Main obstacle to overcome is timing liquid/freezing/frozen precip today. Timing push of cold air advection in to the northern CWA suggests freezing drizzle will be the initial threat this morning through mid afternoon before change over to all light snow when the column goes below zero. Given the potential for prolonged freezing drizzle. However, expect the cold air advection to shove the demarcation of drizzle/freezing drizzle to roughly the I-80 corridor by early afternoon, then expand a bit more south.
Friday morning low temperatures will feel much cooler than in recent weeks, with widespread low teens and single digits.
1114 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2017 With colder air/below freezing temps continuing to quickly push south, decided to include our final 3 counties in north central KS in the Winter Weather Advisory for FZDZ potential. Freezing drizzle and light snow will be the main impact for today. A strong cold front will sweep through the area, dropping temperatures below freezing, resulting in freezing drizzle. Temperatures are currently above freezing across the entire area. Sub-freezing temperatures are expected to move into northwestern edges of the forecast area by 6-7AM, steadily progressing southeast across the area through the morning and early afternoon. Highs on Friday in the low to mid 30s should be sufficient to melt any snow or ice accumulations from today.
241 PM EST Thu Dec 21 2017 Wedge of high pressure has built into the area with easterly winds and low ceilings across the CWA. The wedge begins to retreat Friday as cold front approaches the Mississippi River valley. However, models typically diminish the wedge a bit too fast so not expecting a vast improvement with the low clouds Friday evening.
/issued 1048 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2017/ Skies are cloudy across the forecast area this morning with temperatures ranging from the mid 40s to the lower 50s. With the low clouds over the region, temperatures are not warming as much as expected so have lowered forecast highs for this afternoon. Cloud cover and fog will be slow to lift this morning, but by the afternoon expecting at least some breaks in the clouds which will help to warm temperatures into the low to mid 60s.
1041 AM MST Thu Dec 21 2017 Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low across the Great Basin, with southwesterly flow aloft across the CWA. Surface obs show high pressure across eastern Montana quickly pushing into the Dakotas. The upper low today will push into the Four Corners region while the upper trough axis crosses the CWA. This should be the focus of the highest snowfall totals across the area, which will reach the the 2 to 4 inch range.
Tonight: Weak low pressure tracking well to our south will allow for weak forcing and some light precipitation. Along Highway 20 enough cooler air should make for a transition to some light freezing drizzle or light snow later this evening into overnight. Expecting accumulations of freezing drizzle of.
The closed low is currently centered over SE Utah and will have moved southeast of the four corners by this afternoon.
236 PM MST Thu Dec 21 2017 The closed low trekking across Utah and Colorado today will continue to bring convective snow showers to parts of western Colorado and eastern Utah this evening. Forecast models are shutting the snowfall off across eastern Utah around 6pm this evening, then tapering off across the higher terrain in western Colorado by midnight.
The mild temperatures will come to an abrupt end, however, as a strong cold front moves across the area late tonight and into Friday morning. In addition, an upper level trough moving overhead will generate scattered showers across the area beginning overnight and continuing into Friday afternoon.
Residual shower activity behind the departing cold front will diminish through the evening hours.
The focus of the short term period was on the well anticipated, but thankfully not as significant as initially anticipated, cold front passage expected Friday. Beginning with tonight, expecting some elevated shower activity to develop over the Big Bend region as the upper low swings across the southwest CONUS and upper level divergence increases across West Texas. Additionally, patchy fog is again expected tonight across much of the CWA in advance of the cold front passage Friday.
1122 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2017 Current observations show northerly winds with gusts over 20 kts at times as all TAF sites are in the wake of the cold front.
The first of two cold fronts will move through the region tonight, which will bring cooler temperatures to most of the area for Friday.
Otherwise, mid and high level clouds will spread in from the west later tonight and Friday with a short wave trough moving in and across the region through Friday. Slightly warmer air will also return on Friday with highs mainly in the 20s and lower 30s. The overall pattern will stay the same, with a dominant 500mb trough across the eastern two thirds of the U.
319 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2017 Upper low crossing the Four-corners this evening on track to swing progressively east Friday, crossing the southern Texas Panhandle late in the day. Cold front passing first, this evening, has been running faster than scheduled. Still some uncertainty with precise upper low path and depth, so a bit of lingering uncertainty elsewhere though bulk of solutions remain dry elsewhere in our area.
110 PM EST Thu Dec 21 2017 A low pressure system will develop over Missouri today and track towards northern Ohio overnight.
The cold front will move through the state between midnight and 6 am bringing a quick shot of light snow to the region. Overnight a cold front moves from northwest to southeast bringing widespread MVFR ceilings across all terminals.
Zonal flow in the upper levels will become southwest tonight with a warm front currently along coast attempting to push northward tonight as well.
Cold high pressure remains over the CWA, with most sites staying in the single digits above zero and a few lingering below.
Aloft, southwesterly flow remains in place over the Central Plains, set up between broad ridging over the eastern CONUS and a low pressure system over the Four Corners region/trough extending northeastward through the Dakotas. We have seen continued lift across the region ahead of this system, but moistures has been confined to the lower portions of the atmosphere. Thanks to a sfc cold front which swing through the CWA last night and into this morning, colder air didn't waste a lot of time pushing south, and temps have been falling all day. Lift looks to continue gradually diminishing with time as the upper level trough shifts further east, and precipitation is expected to diminish/end from SW to NE.
135 PM PST Thu Dec 21 2017 Ridge builds across the west resulting in light winds and inversions developing through the end of this week. Easterly ridge winds peaked midday with gusts between 75 to 100 mph for some Sierra observations sites. Generally, the remainder of the forecast through the end of this week is quiet as high pressure returns and along with it the light winds and inversions. Temperatures will slowly climb in the higher elevations with most areas reaching the mid 40s by the weekend. -Edan Gusty northeast-east ridge winds have slowly decreased through the day today. Winds will continue to subside tonight as high pressure builds.
Similar to what has occurred farther to the southwest over Iowa today, a short period of drizzle/freezing drizzle is possible especially Fayette, Clayton, and Grant Counties this evening before any precip switches to snow with the introduction of ice in cloud. It likely would be a very small time/space window of overlap with sufficient moisture depth for drizzle and no cloud ice, but will have to closely monitor for any freezing drizzle this evening.
215 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2017 Early afternoon surface map showed an area of low pressure over southeast Kansas, with a warm front arcing northeast to near the I-72 corridor in central Illinois. Can't rule out a little freezing drizzle over the northwest corner of the CWA late, but road temperatures are in the upper 30s per IDOT, so little impact is expected. The low pressure will ride northeast along the boundary into central Illinois late tonight, dragging a cold front through Friday morning. Top-down method suggests a bit of a freezing rain potential as well, but the same caveat applies with the road temps.
High pressure will continue northeast of the area with some low level moisture lingering across the south with mostly sunny skies in the afternoon for the nrn zones. Leaned toward the warmer GFS MOS temps in the mid 70s Volusia coast to near 80 across the interior. Dominant high pressure off the eastern Florida coast maintains the above average temperature trend through the weekend, before the next cold front on Christmas Day.
401 PM EST Thu Dec 21 2017 High pressure tracks off to the northeast tonight into Friday as a warm front lifts north through the area.
Have not seen any reports of freezing drizzle for a couple of hours, so expiration time of 00z on the winter weather advisory looks on track. Remnants of the main upper low will pass by well to the south and will not impact the local area.
Ridging has moved into Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm chances bump up a little Saturday as a progressive upper level trough pushes through the Intermountain West into the Western High Plains early in the period. Meanwhile, moisture will continue to advect northward ahead of the dryline with surface dewpoints reaching into the lower to mid 60s(F), particularly across south central Kansas.
/issued 1025 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017/ High pressure continues across the Mid-South with mostly clear skies. /issued 252 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017/ High pressure remains in control of the current Midsouth weather with light south winds running temperatures in the mid and upper 70s. about 3 to 5 degrees warmer than yesterday.
303 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017 It will be another very mild day across the area in a strong southerly flow with high pressure to our east and an approaching trough to our west. By tonight an upper level trough over the western CONUS begins to nudge eastward, as a surface cold front slides into the western portions of our CWA. With clouds, showers, and cold air advection behind the front, it will be a cooler day with highs lower 60s west to around 70 east of I-29.
The higher dewpoints should effectively limit fire danger on Friday, despite heftier winds. The front moves east of the CWA Saturday morning, with cooler air flowing in behind the boundary. Temperatures on Saturday will be cooler, but still above normal for most locations across the forecast area.
Temperatures are generally in the 50s this evening across the region with a few locations still in the low 60s. Clear skies and seasonable temperatures prevailed across the lower Ohio Valley thanks to high pressure centered over the lower Appalachians.
333 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 High pressure will remain anchored over the Upper Ohio Valley through the weekend.
As far as the cold front is concerned, timing and intensity remains the same with the front moving through after 6PM up north, 9PM for the I-70 corridor, and the rest of the CWA between midnight and 3AM.
640 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 Slightly cooler weather is expected today in the wake of a cold front but temperatures are still expected to be above normal.
By this time, moisture surge will really begin to accelerate as dew points climb well into the 60s and even the lower 70s with isolated to widely scattered convection developing throughout Saturday. As we move later into the evening, our focus quickly turns to the strong cold front bearing down on our region from the northwest as the longwave trough spills out of the Rockies across the Plains. This open trough is expected to close off at some point but prior to that, expect a strong line of convection to develop along the cold front as it advances east of the I-35 corridor into eastern Oklahoma and north central Texas Saturday evening.
324 AM MST Fri Oct 20 2017 A fast moving low pressure system will pass by to the north today while increasing winds across much of the Desert Southwest. Cooler air will also settle into the region as highs drop back closer to normal levels through Saturday.
405 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017 High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to dominate the area into the early portion of the weekend. Low pressure still forecast to develop in the lee of the Rockies Saturday as a potent trough moves across the western US.
553 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017 It will be another very mild day across the area in a strong southerly flow with high pressure to our east and an approaching trough to our west. By tonight an upper level trough over the western CONUS begins to nudge eastward, as a surface cold front slides into the western portions of our CWA. With clouds, showers, and cold air advection behind the front, it will be a cooler day with highs lower 60s west to around 70 east of I-29.
Current moderate N/NE winds will gradually veer to the ENE starting Friday and through Saturday as high pressure starts building across the region in the wake of the FROPA.
Quiet weather as a broad upper ridge moves into the Northern Plains. Mostly clear skies with mild lows ranging from the lower 40s in the northwest, to the lower 50s in southeast.
300 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017 High pressure centered over the Appalachians at this time, will eventually break down and/or head further east to the east coast today. During the day on Saturday, a cold front will be makings its way across the central Plains states.
Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is anchored across southeast Colorado. Ridging has moved into Mississippi Valley. The low in Eastern Colorado, and attendant cold front, starts to move east ahead of a high amplitude trough that will affect our region on Saturday. The better chance for thunderstorms will still be Saturday thanks to the upper level trough and attendant cold front.
Low pressure was centered over the Canadian Rockies with a cold front down the lee side of the Rockies. Upper ridging was currently centered over the local area. There was a line of thunderstorms associated with the trough over the western Gulf, but those are moving toward the Texas coast. An easterly wave moving around the periphery of the upper ridge will bring chances for showers to far southern portions of the area today and tonight. As the cold front and upper trough approach from the west on Saturday, there will be a better potential for showers and thunderstorms across the area.
The main story initially a cold front passing early Saturday. Temperatures will cooler for still in the normal range Saturday.
642 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 High pressure will remain anchored over the Upper Ohio Valley through the weekend.
502 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 Dry high pressure will hold over the forecast area through Saturday.
301 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 There will be a slight amplification to the mid level ridge axis extending from the Se US into the ern Great Lakes today as a progressive mid level trough axis moves into the nrn Rockies. The influence of the low level anti cyclone across the Upper Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic will sustain very dry air across Se Mi today, while southerly return flow advects a little warmer air mass into Lower Mi. Despite the relatively cold early morning temps, the low level warm air advection under full sun today should boost highs into the low to mid 70s. The southerly gradient will increase tonight as the low level anticylone shifts toward the east coast.
340 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 High pressure ridge continues across the region keeping a quiet forecast in the short term.
1101 PM PDT Thu Oct 19 2017 The forecast will remain wet and breezy at times tonight through Friday as a low pressure system slowly sags through the region.
The lower elevations, by and large, should remain dry. As the trough moves eastward during the day on Saturday, a cold front will move southeast across the eastern plains.
Windy conditions persist through the weekend with cooler temperatures.
328 AM PDT Fri Oct 20 2017 Scattered showers will continue across the region this morning behind a robust cold front. As for the rest of the day, the trough axis swings through our forecast area with the cold temperatures aloft allowing widespread showers to continue. The bulk of precipitation will occur during the morning and early afternoon hours before the trough axis swings through Friday afternoon/evening. That will be briefly lived as a warm front pushes in from the west on Saturday morning. Once this warm front passes, the focus really is on the zonal flow and the atmospheric river slamming onto the Cascade range.
A high pressure over the southeast US this morning, will stretch into the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys. The high will shift to the east later tonight, veering the winds locally from the east. By Saturday morning, the high is expected to get into the Atlantic waters and it will continue to lift to the northeast.
Strong southwesterly winds develop today, ahead of a cold front set to drop temperatures 10-15 degrees by Saturday.
609 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 High pressure will remain anchored over the Upper Ohio Valley through the weekend.
Slightly negative tilted upper level trough axis continues to nose its way into the TX Hill Country with a slowly retreating ridge across SE LA expected to continue moving eastward overnight as the trough axis approaches. While the high clouds are plentiful attm, they are thin, especially across our eastern and northeastern zones.
414 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather through the weekend. High pressure at the surface and aloft will again spread eastward across the Upper Ohio Valley today. High pressure will remain anchored through the weekend, keeping it warm and dry.
The big event will be Saturday afternoon and evening, as a cold front advances southeast across Oklahoma and north Texas.
/issued 837 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017/ High pressure will remain centered to the north of the state for the next several days, keeping winds generally out of the NE, with some gusty conditions mainly in the late morning through evening hours. Overnight lows on track to fall into the mid to upper 60s north, to the lower to mid 70s central and south. High pressure to the north will remain across the area for the next several days, with the center slowly shifting east over the weekend turning winds more to the east.
340 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 Ridging at the surface and aloft over the eastern CONUS will provide mild and dry weather with clear to partly cloudy skies through the period. High clouds will increase by the end of the period as the upper level ridge creeps to the east.
In the upper levels a ridge is over the Southeast today. Expect mostly sunny skies with highs in the low to mid 80s.
159 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 A ridge of high pressure will extend across the eastern United States through the weekend. A slightly modified airmass that added a few degrees to our high temperatures today will do the same for the lows overnight. The warming aloft in conjunction with the ridge at the surface will translate to mild afternoon temperatures in the mid-upper 70s, with a few locations across the far south possibly reaching 80 degrees. Mid-upper ridging now over the western Gulf will continue to amplify as it builds up and east across the Atlantic seaboard, to finally move off the coast late this weekend.
634 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 Dry high pressure will hold over the forecast area through Saturday.
340 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 A ridge of high pressure will extend across the eastern United States through the weekend. A slightly modified airmass that added a few degrees to our high temperatures today will do the same for the lows overnight. The warming aloft in conjunction with the ridge at the surface will translate to mild afternoon temperatures in the mid-upper 70s, with a few locations across the far south possibly reaching 80 degrees.
455 AM MDT Fri Oct 20 2017 Upper ridging continues across the eastern two thirds of the CWA with a trough moving onshore the Pacific NW coast. Gusty southwest flow over the High Plains will continue to bring much warmer than average temps to the area today. Upper trough will quickly approach today into tonight.
Surface analysis from 00 UTC shows an area of high pressure over Eastern Tennessee, about near Knoxville. With the high still off to our north and the gradient not particularly relaxed across the Florida zones, expect the low temperatures to be similar to or a little warmer than last night, in the low to mid 60s in Florida and into the mid to upper 50s in Srn GA/AL. Deep layer ridging is forecast to hold in place across the Southeastern States, with low-level easterly flow continuing.
342 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 A weak and dry cold front will continue to traverse the North Country through the overnight hours. Behind the front temperatures will be slightly cooler but high pressure quickly builds back in.
314 AM PDT Fri Oct 20 2017 Windy conditions are expected today as a storm system and associated cold front pass over the region.
251 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 High pressure will remain over the eastern CONUS through the upcoming weekend.
One more comfortably warm day is in store for the region today, ahead of an advancing cold front set to impact northeast Montana this afternoon through Saturday afternoon. Overnight tonight and through Saturday, as the main trough axis and energy moves over NE Montana, another similar round of light rain showers is expected, mainly near and north of Hwy 2.