Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
254 AM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022 The overall upper air pattern over North America continues to feature a general western ridge and eastern trough with our area largely caught in the northwest flow in between. Early this morning we find ourselves behind yesterday's cold front with a northerly wind gradually bringing in some cooler and eventually drier conditions. With the lower humidity we'll be able to fall off better at night tonight as well, with most areas reaching the mid 60s.
/Issued 654 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022/ For the 00Z TAFs, a weak cold front will continue moving southward through the rest of the Texas Panhandle, including KAMA, this evening with northeast to north winds in its wake.
Light northeast flow will continue, maintained by a weak cold front which will attempt to fropa the area later today.
346 AM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Broad troughing over the eastern third of Canada and CONUS will continue to dominate our region this morning and today. In their wake, continued warmer and moist airmass over head has kept temps largely in the 60s and dewpoints in the 50s and 60s. Aided by cooler air aloft and steepening mid-level lapse rates and dinural heating, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid-afternoon. Broad troughing with weak embedded waves will encompass much of the Great Lakes Region early in the forecast period.
Surface analysis shows dewpoints that started in the low to mid-60s this morning have gradually crept up through the early afternoon and currently stand in the mid-60s to low-70s. The one exception to the warmer temperatures is along the northern fringes of the CWA in the vicinity of the cold front and scattered cloud cover, where temperatures drop slightly into the mid/upper 80s. This front will slowly drift southeast this evening into the overnight period with dewpoints in the low to mid-70s pooling along the front. Maples The pattern will continue to be dominated by an amplified ridge over the western U. and trough over the east. There is a minor eastward shift in the western ridge axis, nudging the northwest flow and cooler air further to the east.
441 AM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Broad troughing over the eastern third of Canada and CONUS will continue to dominate our region this morning and today. In their wake, continued warmer and moist airmass over head has kept temps largely in the 60s and dewpoints in the 50s and 60s. Aided by cooler air aloft and steepening mid-level lapse rates and dinural heating, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid-afternoon. Broad troughing with weak embedded waves will encompass much of the Great Lakes Region early in the forecast period.
(Today and tonight) Early this morning, skies were clear, and temperatures were still warm for the most part, with most locations in the low to mid 80s. A weak cold front was moving through the South Plains, and this front will make its way into our forecast area by around sunrise, and make its way down into the I-10 corridor around the afternoon hours. However, this cold front won't really impact temperatures much today.
357 AM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 The upper level wave and surface cold front swept thunderstorms east of the region by 2 AM leaving behind dry weather for the morning. Sky condition follows a typical weak post frontal cool advection pattern in which the beginnings of surface heating produce a stratocu field while surface Td lingers just a step down in the lower 60s. That leaves lake breeze enhancement of the secondary cold front/trough as the primary support for convection as temperatures peak in the lower 80s. Prospects for showers continue tonight as the latest 00Z model runs have further refined the timing and intensity details of smaller scale features rotating through the upper level trough. A stronger circulation moving down from central Canada produces backed mid level flow and a surface wave along the secondary front/trough.
A weak trough or two may pass through in mid-week before high pressure takes over for a couple of days and into the weekend. The aforementioned cold front over MI Monday evening will approach steadily from the NW on Tuesday during the day. However, a patch of rain/showers associated with a weak trough is progged to precede the best lift during the morning and early aftn. Tuesday will be mild/cooler u70s in the NW thanks to the morning/early aftn clouds and showers, but get into the m-u80s in the SE where they should see sun in the morning. Temps should drop back into the u50s N, but hold in the m-u60s in the Lower Susq.
(Today) Cold front has pushed through NE OK and will continue southward through the day while becoming a focus for afternoon storm development. Post frontal temps will be cooler than recent days however a corridor of higher dewpoints and pre-frontal hot temps will combine to support heat advisory criteria along and south of Interstate 40.
Scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm today into this High Impact Weather Potential. Initial cold front is exiting our CWA early this morning. with a secondary cold front dropping south thru Lake Superior associated with the upper trough axis. Instability is quickly diminishing behind the initial cold front. Temps will be a bit cooler today behind the cold front. Low temps tonight will cool into the 50s as chances of precip come to an end behind the exiting secondary cold front.
323 AM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 A cold front will move through region today and be southeast of the area by this evening. High pressure builds in for the for the rest of the week bringing near average temperatures to the area. A cold front continues to approach the area from the northwest early this morning. The cold front progresses southeast through the region later today with increased cloud cover and the outside chance of a shower or storm well southeast of I-71. Forecast highs range from the lower 80s northwest of I-71 to the upper 80s southeast of I-71. High pressure builds in behind the front tonight. Forecast lows are in the lower 60s.
1040 PM MDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Water vapor shows upper trof shifting from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes, with ridge rebuilding across the Northern Rockies. Upper ridge will gradually build eastward into the Northern Plains by mid week with temps on the rise.
On Tuesday, this weak boundary will continue its sluggish northward movement while a cold front approaches from the west.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 72 89 70 85 / 20 40 50 30 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 72 87 68 86 / 20 40 40 20 30 Oak Ridge, TN 92 70 87 67 87 / 30 40 30 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 68 85 64 84 / 30 40 40 20 20.
Today will be the start of the warming trend as the upper level ridge axis progresses east through Montana this week. The ridging pattern aloft will generally stay the same through the week. This synoptic scale ridge is from a broad area of high pressure over the four corners region. The ridge axis will slowly progress eastward through Montana this week, along with a co located 850mb thermal ridge.
This will send a cold front southeast through the JKL forecast area on Tuesday afternoon and evening.
214 AM MDT Tue Jul 12 2022 High pressure continues to be located over Central Montana today, bringing in quiet and dry conditions.
Highs Today will range from the upper 80s inland to the lower 90s east.
227 AM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Unsettled weather will return through the midweek as a cold front enters the area and stalls for several days.
1140 PM MDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Current observations show a 594 DAM upper level high pressure cell centered over the Four Corners with a moderately moist atmosphere trapped below it. Given the modest CAPE between 500-1000 J/kg across the southern half, convection initiated on schedule around midday over the San Juans, Central Divide mountains and the typical ridges in eastern UT. Convection over the San Juans will be slow moving as steering flow aloft is weak under the center of high pressure. with highs near 100 in the lower valleys. High pressure aloft will remain anchored over the Four Corners, strengthening and expanding its influence toward the weekend. The strengthening of high pressure noted above late in the week and weekend will only turn the dial a few degrees hotter if that materializes.
Forecast Summary A ridge is expected to build over the Mountain West that will lead to mostly clear skies and warming temperatures this week. This ridge will likely be in place for the next two weeks as affirmed by the CPC 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook.
103 AM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 A cold front will move into the region late tonight and pass of to the south and east by early Tuesday afternoon. High pressure builds back in the remainder of Tuesday and provides dry conditions with seasonable temperatures.
Issued by National Weather Service La Crosse WI 316 AM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Water vapor satellite imagery and heights early this morning have the 500mb trough axis shifting east of the area with a mid level ridge from Alberta through the Great Basin/Rockies. Locally, the cold front cleared the forecast area Monday ushering in drier 60s dewpoints with generally clear skies.
/22/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and tomorrow: Upper ridging over the Four Corners will amplify into the Inter- Mountain West as a northern stream trough slides from the Midwest into the Great Lakes region. The associated trough axis will drop into the Middle Mississippi Valley with northerly flow helping to reinforce a dry airmass across much of the area with PWATs falling to at or below 1. Some locations across the Hwy 82 corridor may see dewpoints mix into the low 60s with a few upper 50s not out of the question.
220 AM MDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Upper ridge builds over the region today leading to warmer temps.
434 AM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Broad troughing over the eastern third of Canada and CONUS will continue to dominate our region this morning and today. In their wake, continued warmer and moist airmass over head has kept temps largely in the 60s and dewpoints in the 50s and 60s. Aided by cooler air aloft and steepening mid-level lapse rates and dinural heating, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid-afternoon. Broad troughing with weak embedded waves will encompass much of the Great Lakes Region early in the forecast period.
In regard to temperatures, have highs rising 80s, which coupled with dry northwesterly flow - should remain fairly comfortable as dewpoints remain in the low to mid 50s.
Afternoon temperatures for the interior west side valleys could end up a couple of degrees lower than what they were yesterday, but its expected to be a little warmer east of the Cascades as the thermal trough shifts east. It will be dry and cooler Wednesday.
410 AM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Forecast Highlights: - Cooler and less humid today and tomorrow. - Warmer with increasing humidity for the end of the week - Little to no precipitation all week Today will be cooler and noticeably less humid behind the exiting cold front. Any precipitation will likely be short-lived as the wave is favored to fall apart and give way to a building upper- level ridge. This ridge will be the dominate feature for the end of the week. We'll see a return of the heat and humidity as the ridge continues to build to our west. There are some indications that a wave and associated cold front may ride the periphery of the ridge and swing through our area this weekend.
The low level ridge axis has lifted a little northward but remains across south FL. Temps aloft are a bit cooler, -6C at 500mb but very warm (+10 to +11C) at 700 mb. The western Atlantic ridge has lifted slightly northward but remains draped across south FL.
Warmer dewpoints may pool ahead of the front later today, but the timing of this pooling does not look to coincide with the peak heating of the day.
626 AM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022 (Today through Wednesday) As a summertime surface cold front approaches from the northwest as afternoon hours progress, and upper level troughing influences develop and deepen across our area, shower and thunderstorm chances will return to mid state region late afternoon through tonight with lingering chances across southern and eastern portions through Wednesday afternoon. Highs today will be a few degrees warmer than those experienced yesterday, but still mainly be in low to mid 90s, mid 80s to around 90 Cumberland Plateau Region. With increased humidity values expected today ahead of this summertime surface cold frontal passage, not out of question that some locations west of Cumberland Plateau Region could experience afternoon heat index values 100 to 105 degree range. Surface cold front should push south of mid state region after midnight tonight.
High pressure is still in control for the short term forecast. For those of you who are getting bored hearing about the same type of weather: good news! Wednesday will be slightly different! A trough over the Gulf of Mexico will elongate and drift towards the Texas Gulf Coast. A few locations (notably the northwestern Brush Country) could be warmer than this. The forecast will be highly dependent on this trough and any potential tropical development.
The upper level trough that gave us showers and storms days prior continues to bring slightly unstable air down from Canada this afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be around climate averages to slightly above normal as highs reach into the low to mid 80s. Expect temperatures to continue to rise Wednesday and into the end of the week as a ridge begins to build over the western and central United States.
A ridge of high pressure over the desert southwest will continue to keep temperatures 5 to 8 degrees above average, even with the moisture increase we've been seeing. As the ridge slowly weakens we'll see a more favorable temperatures profile for storms with a couple of degrees of cooling through the week. An easterly impulse rotating around the high from northern Texas could focus storms later in the week.
609 AM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022 The overall upper air pattern over North America continues to feature a general western ridge and eastern trough with our area largely caught in the northwest flow in between. Early this morning we find ourselves behind yesterday's cold front with a northerly wind gradually bringing in some cooler and eventually drier conditions. With the lower humidity we'll be able to fall off better at night tonight as well, with most areas reaching the mid 60s. The upper ridge to our west amplifies and shifts a bit eastward as well, so we'll have access to a little bit warmer air.
Water vapor imagery this morning shows upper ridge axis off to our west over western CONUS, with dry northwest flow over the Northern Plains. Today will be the start of the warming trend as the upper level ridge axis progresses east through Montana this week. The ridging pattern aloft will generally stay the same through the week. This synoptic scale ridge is from a broad area of high pressure over the four corners region. The ridge axis will slowly progress eastward through Montana this week, along with a co located 850mb thermal ridge.
The ridge of high pressure will continue to build over the Northern Rockies today causing temperatures to climb to above normal readings. The lower portions of the atmosphere should be fairly dry during this convection so very light rain with the potential of gusty wind is anticipated.
Forecast Highlights: - Cooler and less humid today and tomorrow. - Warmer with increasing humidity for the end of the week - Little to no precipitation all week Today will be cooler and noticeably less humid behind the exiting cold front. Any precipitation will likely be short-lived as the wave is favored to fall apart and give way to a building upper- level ridge. This ridge will be the dominate feature for the end of the week. We'll see a return of the heat and humidity as the ridge continues to build to our west. There are some indications that a wave and associated cold front may ride the periphery of the ridge and swing through our area this weekend.
528 AM MDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Latest upper air analysis shows the ridge further north now over the Four Corners Region, with northwest flow over the Plains. At the surface a high pressure was moving over Nebraska, extending down into the forecast area. Today highs will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday due to the ridge building slightly further northward. Late in the afternoon an upper level short wave trough will approach the forecast area from the west. Tonight the short wave trough will move over the forecast area. Wednesday the upper level ridge to the west continues to build northward. This will cause highs to be warmer still. During the latter half of the afternoon through the evening an upper level short wave trough will move over the eastern part of the forecast area.
1042 AM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Mean layer ridging over the western North Atlantic moved to the west over the past 24-hours, putting the squeeze on the upper level low centered over the Yucatan Channel. The subtropical ridge driving the BL east-southeasterlies reaches west to near South Florida, with a very weak cyclonic notch noted on its southwestern flank. 0" of PW, although the lowest levels were contaminated by a nearby shower. Low level heights fell over the past 12-hours, which may be the weak troughiness along the trough, or just the slop within a weak shower. Light to gentle east to southeasterly breezes can be expected through the remainder of the week over all Florida Keys coastal waters, as Atlantic high pressure builds over the Florida Peninsula.
411 AM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022 (Issued 411 AM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022) Today through Wednesday: We are in a slightly cooler air mass today than yesterday, so expect highs in the lower to mid 80s rather than the mid to upper 80s. An upper trough will swing down through WI late this afternoon through late evening. The upper trough will linger over the Great Lakes on Wednesday, but there will be drier air in place and minimal instability. Temperatures will be much cooler by the lake on Wednesday, with highs in the lower to mid 70s.
Upper ridging remains centered over the Four Corners region with a northern stream trough extending through the Midwest to Ohio Valley. Low-level thermal ridge extends east into the Lower Mississippi Valley with 850mb temperatures of 20-22 C supporting afternoon highs topping out in the mid to upper 90s. /TW/CR/ Prior discussion below: Surface level southerly flow is expected to be restored today due a a warm frontal boundary lifting north of the Hwy 84 corridor.
624 AM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 A cold front will move through region today and be southeast of the area by this evening. High pressure builds in for the for the rest of the week bringing near average temperatures to the area. A cold front continues to approach the area from the northwest early this morning. The cold front progresses southeast through the region later today with increased cloud cover and the outside chance of a shower or storm well southeast of I-71. Forecast highs range from the lower 80s northwest of I-71 to the upper 80s southeast of I-71. High pressure builds in behind the front tonight. Forecast lows are in the lower 60s. A weak secondary cold front and upper level vorticity max swing through the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. Forecast highs are in the lower to middle 80s.
Over the coming week the center of high pressure in the mid levels will wobble around the Four Corners. The position of the high will open the door to increasing monsoon moisture from over the Gulf of California and northwest Mexico. Storms will once again initiate first over the higher terrain, especially the Mogollon Rim, White Mountains and Kaibab Plateau. With deeper moisture arriving over central Arizona there will be a better chance that storms over the Mogollon Rim to move southward into the lower elevations during the late afternoon into the evening. As far as northeast Arizona perhaps a bit of drying nearer the center of high pressure but enough moisture will remain for scattered thunderstorms to continue.
303 AM MDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Latest upper air analysis shows the ridge further north now over the Four Corners Region, with northwest flow over the Plains. At the surface a high pressure was moving over Nebraska, extending down into the forecast area. Today highs will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday due to the ridge building slightly further northward. Late in the afternoon an upper level short wave trough will approach the forecast area from the west. Tonight the short wave trough will move over the forecast area. Wednesday the upper level ridge to the west continues to build northward. This will cause highs to be warmer still. During the latter half of the afternoon through the evening an upper level short wave trough will move over the eastern part of the forecast area.
728 AM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Showers and thunderstorms return to the region today with the encroachment of a cold front. Updated focused on increasing PoPs this morning, as scattered light showers have formed over the region due to a passing prefrontal trough. As noted previously, overall moisture levels in the column will act as a limiting mechanism against widespread convective development ahead of today's crossing cold front, especially across northern and western portions of the CWA.
634 AM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022 (Today) Cold front has pushed through NE OK and will continue southward through the day while becoming a focus for afternoon storm development. Post frontal temps will be cooler than recent days however a corridor of higher dewpoints and pre-frontal hot temps will combine to support heat advisory criteria along and south of Interstate 40.
923 AM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 High pressure will begin building back to the north later today, with the stalled boundary to the north continuing to wash out to the east and shift west over the Gulf. A trough in place over the northern Gulf from the stalled frontal boundary and high pressure ridging across south Florida will keep south to southwest flow today, with the high pressure ridge building north later today and tonight.
This will bring more afternoon showers and thunderstorms favoring the higher terrain south of the I-70 corridor today. By Wednesday, the Four Corners high will circulate monsoonal moisture into the northern areas of Utah and Colorado with scattered to more wide spread showers and thunderstorms in the mountains, and isolated to scattered storms in the lower valleys. Due to the weak steering flow under the high, these storms will be stationary to slow moving, increasing chances for locally heavy rain and the risk for possible flash flooding, especially in areas around recent fire scars. The strengthening of high pressure noted above late in the week and weekend will only turn the dial a few degrees hotter if that materializes.
VFR conditions expected through the period, a cold front will slowly work its way south across the area. Today Through Wednesday Night As of 07z, many ob sites across the area indicate temperatures are as much as 9 degrees warmer than this time yesterday morning. At the sfc, a cold front will be working its way southward into the state from southern Missouri.
Temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend weekend as a large area of high pressure remains situated near the four corners region.
(Today through Wednesday) As a summertime surface cold front approaches from the northwest as afternoon hours progress, and upper level troughing influences develop and deepen across our area, shower and thunderstorm chances will return to mid state region late afternoon through tonight with lingering chances across southern and eastern portions through Wednesday afternoon. Highs today will be a few degrees warmer than those experienced yesterday, but still mainly be in low to mid 90s, mid 80s to around 90 Cumberland Plateau Region. With increased humidity values expected today ahead of this summertime surface cold frontal passage, not out of question that some locations west of Cumberland Plateau Region could experience afternoon heat index values 100 to 105 degree range. Surface cold front should push south of mid state region after midnight tonight.