Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
329 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020 With high pressure centered over western KY, calm winds, and BL decoupling, temperatures have tanked in some locations. Several places have already fallen into the upper 30s, with others hovering in the lower 40s. Southwesterly return surface flow and increasing H5 heights will allow temperatures to soar into the middle to upper 70s today and into the lower to middle 80s on Wednesday.
Drier air was evident aloft via the low/ mid/high altitude water vapor views. Dome of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather across much of the southeast through midweek. Afternoon highs return to the lower 80s by Wednesday with dew points also creeping back up into the upper 50s to near 60 as a tropical airmass begins to inch closer to the Tennessee Valley.
/NEW/ /Through Tuesday Night/ Texas will remain sandwiched between a Desert Southwest ridge and a Bermuda high today, but this will be a remarkably dry col, dominated by subsidence.
341 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020 (Issued 340 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020) Today through Wednesday: Dry cold front will continue to move east through the area today, with southwest winds shifting west behind the front. Highs should reach the lower 70s over most of the area, which is near the 75th percentile per NBM ensemble output.
1117 PM MDT Mon Oct 5 2020 A trough slumped across the central CONUS has produced stronger winds aloft as a jet noses across the Northern Rockies. High pressure builds back over the Four Corners region on Tuesday, which should relax winds aloft. Temperatures may fluctuate a touch warmer in response to the ridge sliding back overhead, but none-the-less, our unseasonably warm and dry weather pattern continues.
Latest WV satellite shows northwesterly flow in place over the Panhandles with a ridge to our west over the Four Corners. So, while heights continue to build overall as the upper ridge to our west builds northeastward, expect temperatures to be a bit cooler than yesterday given dominant upslope surface wind component. This should lead to warmer temperatures, with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s, putting record highs in jeopardy.
Should see highs top out around 80 degrees to the low 80s this afternoon with pleasant lows in the 50s tonight. The story for the remainder of the work week will focus on well above average temperatures as a broad upper level ridge currently over the West Coast slides over the central CONUS as it slowly deamplifies.
Quiet conditions will prevail for most of the work week, as ridging over the western CONUS dominates our area, keeping skies clear and winds light. Forecast on track for a continuation of unseasonably warm temperatures for early October, highs in the low to mid 80s for most of our area, with upper 70s in the mountains. A large upper level ridge has developed in the wake of the departing cold front that brought our area slightly cooler temperatures today. This ridge will continue to be the dominant weather feature through the early part of the week, keeping skies sunny, conditions dry, and high temperatures back in the low 80s Tuesday and Wednesday.
Latest observations across the forecast area have RH values down in the low teens and double digits as wind gusts continue to blow into the upper 20 and low 30 mph range under Red Flag Warning conditions expected through 7 PM MDT tonight. This all happening as a cold front is moving south as it is currently over the US Hwy 20 corridor. High pressure ridging through the mid-week will keep conditions dry. Temperatures will continue following an above-average trend through Wednesday as elevated fire weather conditions return for Tuesday as not much relief for RHs again dropping into the low double digits and teens Tuesday to warrant Fire Weather Watches.
A deep trough is present over eastern Canada and the northeast CONUS, with broad ridging extending all the way from the northeast Pacific into the central CONUS. Throughout the day, the trough should fall apart just south of the area, allowing light winds to begin backing back to the southwest. With sunny skies, little change in airmass behind the trough, and even a bit of a boost through some weak downsloping, temperatures this afternoon should warm near to or even above yesterday's highs. Highs today should reach the low to mid 80s for most.
Otherwise, a warming trend will begin across Middle Tennessee today as an upper ridge builds along the Gulf Coast and heights rise aloft. Highs will be around 5 degrees warmer than yesterday, with low 70s on the Plateau and mid to upper 70s elsewhere.
203 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020 Water vapor imagery shows a trough exiting east of the area while another was making its way southeast through southern Manitoba Canada/Dakotas. High pressure build back in tonight through Wednesday for quiet conditions. High pressure and clear skies will allow temperatures to drop into the mid 30s to lower 40s. Quiet weather/warming trend will be the rule through the end of the work week and into the weekend as a mid-level ridge amplifies and builds into the central CONUS.
320 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2020 A modest warming trend will precede a gusty cold frontal passage on Wednesday. Light rain showers associated with the passing cold front are possible across the northern tier of central PA.
150 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 2020 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the western CONUS with continues northwest flow through the Northern Rockies/Plains. At the surface, trof associated with short wave over southern Canada is pushing through the Dakotas. Warmer air will advent into the region today behind surface trof with breezy west/northwest winds and widespread highs in the 80s.
230 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2020 High pressure will bring fair weather to the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region through today. Another cold front will pass across the region on Wednesday with some gusty winds, but no rainfall is expected. High pressure will then build over the eastern US with fair weather expected through the end of the week. A lee trough will also develop over the piedmont today and linger overnight. With high pressure blocking the Gulf and westerly flow aloft, no rain is expected with this trough. Temperatures will run a few degrees warmer than normal today with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s across the mountains and mid 70s east of the Blue Ridge. Upper level pattern through the forecast period remains mostly zonal while a trough gradually moves eastward, bringing Wednesday's front through the area.
329 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020 A weak cold front is located near the Missouri-Iowa border into the lower Great Lakes early this morning. These high temperatures are a couple of degrees warmer than the previous forecast due to the aforementioned favorable atmospheric conditions. High temperatures on Wednesday should be several degrees warmer than this afternoon as the 850-hPa thermal ridge characterized by temperatures approaching +20C slides into the CWA. Leaned toward warmer guidance again on Wednesday with high temperatures expected to be in the mid to upper 80s.
Cool temperatures in the upper 30s/low 40s over the relatively warmer rivers will allow for patchy valley fog formation late tonight, as well as some patchy frost formation in colder spots. With plenty of sunshine and warmer air already in place, temperatures on Wednesday will rise back above normal.
Southerly winds will shift from the north behind a weak cold front slowly moving into the area over the next 12 hours before resuming from the southeast late in the TAF period.
234 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 2020 The upper-level ridge continues to exist over the region today. Record or near- record high temperatures are possible across many areas this afternoon as the H5 High pressure center propagates eastward across the Four Corners region. Another weak "cool" front will drop down out of the northern plains and into northeastern WY Wednesday, which will keep temps east of the Divide a couple degrees cooler on Wednesday, but temperatures across the region will remain well above normal.
447 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2020 A modest warming trend will precede a gusty cold frontal passage on Wednesday. Light rain showers associated with the passing cold front are possible across the northern tier of central PA.
217 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2020 High pressure over the Mid Atlantic coast will provide us with a breezy and milder day for Tuesday. High pressure over the Mid Atlantic coast will provide us a breezy and milder day today with temps climbing well into the 60s. eventually pushing a strong cold front through our region.
1113 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020 High pressure will build across Pennsylvania this evening, then pass off of the Mid Atlantic coast on Tuesday. Tuesday will be sunny and warmer. A cold front will pass through on Wednesday, which may produce scattered showers over northern PA, but more notably, westerly wind gusts between 35 and 45 mph. Low temps around sunrise Tuesday should range from the mid 30s in the perennial cold spots of the northwest mountains, to the low and mid 40s in the Susq Valley. Mixing down model 850mb temps of around 8C yield expected highs from the low and mid 60s over the highest terrain of the Appalachians, to the low 70s across the Lower Susq Valley.
Ahead of the front, temperatures were in the lower to mid 50s in eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois, and far northeast Missouri. Warmer today and breezy. Deep mixing late this morning into this afternoon behind the front will bring winds of 10 to 20 knots to the area and warmer high temperatures than previously forecast. Winds will shift back around to the south this evening ahead of another cold front that will move across the region Tuesday night.
High pressure will dominate the weather over central Indiana through the rest of the week, providing above normal temperatures and dry weather across the area. High pressure centered over the southeast U. A cold front extending southwest from a low over St. James Bay will have difficulty making it in central Indiana and instead be stalled to the north as the aforementioned high pressure refuses to yield ground. The southwesterly flow and warm advection will also allow high temperatures to climb into the lower to middle 70s. An upper ridge will slowly build in from the west during the short term period.
1140 PM MDT Mon Oct 5 2020 06Z TAF CYCLE A few high cirrus clouds will stream southward into New Mexico, but otherwise clear skies will prevail with VFR conditions as high pressure leans over the state. Winds will shift direction and possibly turn breezy for a brief bit tonight as a weak cold front settles in from the northeast. Near-record to record warmth will continue through the remainder of this week as strong high pressure drifts east over New Mexico.
153 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2020 A modest warming trend will precede a gusty cold frontal passage on Wednesday. Light rain showers associated with the passing cold front are possible across the northern tier of central PA.
1224 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020 VFR conditions will mostly prevail across the terminals as high pressure and a dry air mass allow for clear skies through the TAF period. The center of high pressure is distant in the Ohio valley, but sprawls all the way back into E TX. Overnight lows tomorrow we will be slightly warmer to start Wednesday in the low to mid 50s for most.
1130 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020 High pressure will build across Pennsylvania this evening, then pass off of the Mid Atlantic coast on Tuesday. Tuesday will be sunny and warmer. A cold front will pass through on Wednesday, which may produce scattered showers over northern PA, but more notably, westerly wind gusts between 35 and 45 mph. Low temps around sunrise Tuesday should range from the mid 30s in the perennial cold spots of the northwest mountains, to the low and mid 40s in the Susq Valley. Mixing down model 850mb temps of around 8C yield expected highs from the low and mid 60s over the highest terrain of the Appalachians, to the low 70s across the Lower Susq Valley.
228 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020 Temperatures this morning will be on the mild side in the mid to lower 50s, with winds beginning to relax late this morning as a cold front begins to makes its way through the area. This cold front passage will be a dry one, and do little to cool temps as highs climb into the upper 70s/lower 80s. A ridge will build back into the region, with a few more disturbances traversing through our region. Once again looking at some marginal wind shear, but more of the directional variety with the low level winds veering to the west/southwest quite a bit tonight.
An 850 mb height ridge will be positioned right over the Panhandles into central Kansas as will result in another abundantly sunny day in the 80s with light surface winds area-wide.
Highs this aftn wl range fm the mid 70s to the lower 80s. Some of the warmer temps wl be acrs N AR, where sfc winds wl veer to the SW by aftn. This wl allow the sfc flow to bcm S/SW acrs most of the FA, with highs Wed aftn topping out in the lower and mid 80s.
High pressure to the north maintains a north to northeast flow 5 to 10 knots though the period. A medium amplified upper trough extending from central Canada southward over the northern and central Great Plains will cross the mid/upper Mississippi River tonight, and pass over the eastern conus on Tuesday. This trough will then lift northeast over the western Atlantic through midweek, allowing a west-east orientated upper ridge over the northern gulf to shift northward over the deep south. Highs on Tuesday will range between 77 to 82 degrees, with warmer highs on Wednesday ranging from 83 to 88 degrees. High pressure to the north maintains a north to northeast flow 5 to 10 knots though the period.
A medium amplified upper trough extending from central Canada southward over the northern and central Great Plains will cross the mid/upper Mississippi River tonight, and pass over the eastern conus on Tuesday. This trough will then lift northeast over the western Atlantic through midweek, allowing a west-east orientated upper ridge over the northern gulf to shift northward over the deep south. Highs on Tuesday will range between 77 to 82 degrees, with warmer highs on Wednesday ranging from 83 to 88 degrees. High pressure to the north maintains a north to northeast flow 5 to 10 knots though the period.
349 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020 The upper level trough that is bringing us a weak front this morning will quickly race east into the Ohio Valley today. The dome of high pressure across the desert southwest for so long will shunted SEWRD today though we are not expecting much in the way of height changes overhead.
Otherwise, expect a mostly sunny and dry day with high temps warmer than yesterday. A trailing cold front lacking moisture washes out over the Ohio Valley without even a noticeable increase in cloud cover. Meanwhile, subtropical ridging will be centered over the western Atlantic as Delta moves NW into the southern GoM.
241 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2020 Upper air pattern consists of a broad 500 mb ridge across the wrn U. and a trough in the central U. This low looks to lack significant moisture, but given it'll be aided by left exit dynamics at 300mb, some widespread rain showers are still expected. Through Tuesday night, the showers will progress from west to east along the surface cold front. On Wednesday, with the cooler air settling in, highs are only expected to top out on the 50s across the region. Into the evening, with high pressure building in with a dry airmass and relaxing pressure gradient, lows should dip back near normal across the region.
Upper level ridge axis shifts east thru the week and will prompt a return to well above average temperatures.
Heading into Wednesday a stronger disturbance will move through the Great Lakes, and that will eventually push a weak cold front through our region late Wednesday and Wednesday evening. Ahead of it, the inversion will remain strong and close to the ground which will allow temperatures to soar into the low to mid 80s, even as surface dewpoints climb well into the 50s. Lows may be too low Tuesday night, and Wednesday night there is a bit greater spread amongst the guidance due to varying impacts of the cold front which will have little push to it.
Upper level ridging will continue to influence the Pacific Northwest the first half of the week before moving inland on Wednesday.
/issued 912 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2020/ High pressure remains over the Mid-South this evening.
Temperatures were nudged a bit cooler for parts of central KY where guidance suggests a strong inversion will be in place and winds will be very light to calm near dawn tomorrow. Believe the GFS is a little too aggressive in moving the high eastward, and therefore its temps are too warm. The raw NAM temps are much colder, in spite of 950mb temps that are several degrees warmer than what was observed this morning. Wednesday morning lows will be around 50F, with some rural locations being a tad cooler, and urban areas being a bit warmer.
241 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020 Dry and warmer weather will prevail across the region for the next several days. 06z surface map indicated a trof to the northwest extending from central WI back into southwest IA. 2 am readings ranged from 40 in Olney to 54 in Jacksonville, 10-20 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. The trof will lose definition as it shifts across the area today posing little impact. Clear and quiet weather to continue overnight with lows on the mild side in the low to mid 50s. Wednesday may end up being the warmest day this week as a thermal ridge gets squeezed east ahead of the next weak front.
1056 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2020 Upper level trough over the eastern U. and an upper level ridge over the western U. will prevail through mid week before ridge begins to break down and shift eastward into the central part of the U. Warm south to southwest winds will prevail ahead of the boundary, so low temperatures tonight will be 10 to 15 degrees warmer than this morning, in the low 40s to low 50s. With the upper ridge over the central portions of the country, warm pattern sets up with relatively quiet weather through the rest of the work week.
High pressure will slowly work eastward beneath upper northwest flow.
With plenty of sunshine and warmer air already in place, temperatures on Wednesday will rise back above normal.
Greater amount of sunshine and warmer low level temperatures on the back side of high pressure should bring a nicer day with highs into the mid 60s to lower 70s. Could end up a few degrees warmer than forecasted right now, especially SW areas. Area of low pressure will move across the northern Great Lakes Tues night/ Weds morning with a dry front pushing on Wednesday.
An upper level trough will move through the region late tonight and Tuesday morning. Height rises/warmer air will shift east into the region in the wake of the upper trough and that warming trend will continue into the Wednesday. A broad upper level ridge will shift east with unseasonably warm temperatures for the mid/late parts of the week with highs in the low/mid 80s. A tropical system is expected to move from the Gulf of Mexico into the lower MS Vly and southeast U.
Looking at the bigger picture, high pressure over the OH Valley/mid Atlantic areas will settle more into the Mid South/mid TN Valley states later today, as a SW/W flow develops below H7. Overnight lows look to fall into the lower 50s for most areas, which is a few degrees warmer compared to the last couple of mornings. Temps then look to rebound into the lower 80s Wed afternoon, which is near or slightly above normal for this time of the year. This trend continues into Wed night/early Thu, with lows in the mid 50s before temps once again rebound into the lower 80s Thu afternoon. The focus after Thu will divert to the Gulf where the attention will be on the track of Tropical Cyclone Delta.
346 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020 Mostly clear skies are expected to become increasingly cloudy ahead of an approaching low pressure today. A strong jet streak propagates into the CWA this morning, leading to the development of an occluded low pressure. Given the lack of moisture in the low levels, these stronger winds aloft are likely to mix down to the surface. A few lingering showers may be possible in the Arrowhead along a weak secondary cold front. The remainder of the week will see mostly zonal flow combined with several troughs moving across the area.
The GFS, NAM, and ECMWF predict weakeness in the upper heights or a weak trough of low pressure over the region during the period.
/issued 349 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020/ The upper level trough that is bringing us a weak front this morning will quickly race east into the Ohio Valley today. The dome of high pressure across the desert southwest for so long will shunted SEWRD today though we are not expecting much in the way of height changes overhead.
536 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020 Water vapor imagery shows a trough exiting east of the area while another was making its way southeast through southern Manitoba Canada/Dakotas. High pressure build back in tonight through Wednesday for quiet conditions. High pressure and clear skies will allow temperatures to drop into the mid 30s to lower 40s. Quiet weather/warming trend will be the rule through the end of the work week and into the weekend as a mid-level ridge amplifies and builds into the central CONUS.
HURRICANE DELTA IS AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR THE ARKLAMISS Today and Tonight: A broad trough over the eastern half of the U. will sit just to our north while a strong ridge has taken hold off to our southeast. Situated between the trough and ridge and with high pressure at the surface, our weather will be mild with highs in the low 80s today. Overnight lows will range from the low 50s in the north to the low 60s in the south where the cloud cover will inhibit radiative cooling.
/Today through Wednesday/ Generally weak flow aloft continues this morning, as our area remains juxtaposed between a trof axis to our ne and the upper ridge to our w. At the sfc, high pressure remains anchored across our area, centered just to our e.
442 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020 Current surface analysis places a trough over the northern prairie provinces, with boundary dropping down into northeast Montana. Upper level analysis places broad ridge over the west coast into the Great Basin, with northwest flow over our area. A bit cooler day is expected on Wednesday with temperatures closer to average, but a rebound is expected for the later part of the week. Dry conditions continue through the week, with precipitation chances entering the forecast to start the upcoming week as a deep Pacific trough starts its approach.
632 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2020 12Z TAFS Clear skies and light northerly winds will prevail through the morning in response to an area of high pressure centered over Arkansas.
330 AM PDT Tue Oct 6 2020 Dry weather with unseasonably hot temperatures continues into mid-week, then much cooler with a chance of precipitation by the end of the week. Skies remain clear early this morning as high pressure covers the region. Weak mid/upper low still forecast to lift northward into central California Wednesday.
Temperatures are mainly in the low to mid 40s with a few locations in the upper 30s.
637 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2020 High pressure persists through midweek. Dry cold frontal passage Wednesday night.
703 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2020 A modest warming trend will precede a gusty cold frontal passage on Wednesday. Light rain showers associated with the passing cold front are possible across the northern tier of central PA.
The short term forecast remains dry, with temperatures warmer than those more usual for early October.
With high pressure centered over western KY, calm winds, and BL decoupling, temperatures have tanked in some locations. Several places have already fallen into the upper 30s, with others hovering in the lower 40s. Southwesterly return surface flow and increasing H5 heights will allow temperatures to soar into the middle to upper 70s today and into the lower to middle 80s on Wednesday.