Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Tonight Through Tuesday A pacific low pressure trough with an area of enhanced mid level winds will pass over the area through the evening. A cold front will come south later tonight and end up along the continental divide by early morning. Tuesday Through Monday a series of cold fronts will move south each night through the week enhancing the low level moisture up along the continental divide.
High pressure was anchored over the four corners with a second high noted off the coast of the Carolinas. At the surface, high pressure was present over eastern Nebraska. Thoughts here are that any convection which can develop in the higher terrain of eastern Wyoming/Black Hills of South Dakota will have a hard time working east of the instability axis, especially in western and north central Nebraska. Overnight tonight, the instability axis will begin to migrate east as high pressure works east of Nebraska.
This time though the low level moisture and instability factors will be higher. temps will be a bit cooler for Tuesday.
A weak inverted trough will get trapped between two centers of the subtropical ridge. One piece of the ridge will become centered over Southern Nevada and the other piece will be along the Southeast US Coast.
Tonight and Tuesday The main forecast issue to be on precipitation trends across the north on Tuesday as a slow-moving cold front begins to sag south from Ontario. The 19z MSAS surface analysis showed an area of high pressure extended from the Central Plains north-northeast into the Upper MS Valley. The weak area of high pressure is expected to slide across the southern sections of the Great Lakes tonight, providing for mostly clear skies and a light W-NW wind. Dew points are forecast to climb into the lower 60s north, middle to upper 60s south. By Tuesday afternoon, a modest cold front is progged to be sagging south across northern MN and Lake Superior. Tuesday Night Through Monday The forecast will hinge upon the movement and placement of a Canadian cold front during the mid to late part of the week.
Subtle trough axis just north of the area may touch off additional convection later tonight and tomorrow morning across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Daily chances for thunder will continue for pretty much the rest of the forecast cycle as the upper ridge retrogrades to the west.
It appears the warmer air at 500 mb is squashing what could have been. The mid and upper level low will shift west to the western Gulf of Mexico Tue which will allow the Bermuda Ridge to reassert itself and dominate our weather thru the remainder of the week. Position of the low level ridge axis will adjust across the central FL peninsula, resulting in a light but steady S/SE flow, enhanced by the sea breeze each afternoon. Lows in the low to mid 70s. Favorable boating conds this week as the Bermuda Ridge axis settles across the central FL peninsula.
Subjective 12Z upper air analysis indicates weak upper-leve ridging over the 4 corners and mid-Atlantic regions, with an upper-level trough over the Great Lakes and a weak trough just coming into the Pacific Northwest. Moisture will begin to return to the High Plains of NE/SD/WY/CO tonight, but the associated chances for showers/storms should remain well west of the area.
There are also a few cumulus popping over the ridges.
High pressure will bring slightly warmer weather this week with patchy coastal clouds nights and mornings.
229 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 A cold front will push southeast across Pennsylvania late today and tonight. High pressure will return for mid week with continued warm temperatures. A cold front moving over Lake Erie will drop SE across the area this evening and overnight. Lagging upper trough and sfc cold front will combine with the deep tropical moisture to bring the threat of some training storms with highly localized very heavy rainfall of 2 inches or more per hour. to the lower 70s across the SE zones. Tuesday looks very warm to hot but with much cooler dewpoints as compared to today. Highs will range from the low/mid 80s over the NW to the low/mid 90s over the SE. Big story in the extended fcst is the likelihood for modest cooling by Tue/Wed behind the weak cold front.
240 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 High pressure over the region will keep above normal temperatures in the forecast through the end of the week. High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue over the region through tonight. High pressure ridge dominates the SE US through mid week with no airmass exchange for the next several days. At this time it appears most of the energy associated with this feature will stay north of SC, however it may be sufficient to push a cold front through the area Sat and Sun.
324 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016 Weak upper low over the eastern Gulf of Mexico with an inverted surface trof off the Louisiana coast. Upper low will continue to move westward across the Gulf of Mexico over the next 48 hours.
146 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 Aviation A high pressure system centered in Iowa will build slowly east today and into Michigan on Tuesday.
336 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016 Water vapor imagery shows upper ridge beginning to amplify over the four corners region resulting in increased 500mb northwesterly flow over the TX/OK Panhandles. dew points are in the low to mid 60s. but with highs only in the low to mid 90s the spreads won't be as high as the last few days. The forecast for the next few days is very similar to today as subtle waves continue to round the base of the high pressure to our west and move in on northwesterly flow aloft.
Looking like elevated convection will get going with the low level jet during the evening. The high resolution model guidance shows shower and thunderstorm activity initiating in the 00-01z time frame, and keeping some of this activity around through the mid to late evening. After midnight, the low level jet focuses more into the Bemidji area. The low level boundary sags southward during the day Tuesday, pushing the pcpn chances to areas mainly along and south of highway 200.
1213 PM MDT MON JUL 25 2016 With moist southerly llvl winds rising up the Cheyenne ridge, getting some fog from Vedauwoo to the I-80 Summit. The models continue to disagree on the amount of convective initiation along the trough this aftn with the GFS and NAM showing really no tstms. The cap will be stronger today with warmer temps aloft. This makes sense given the favorable instability and deep layer shear to the east of the trough.
213 PM PDT MON JUL 25 2016 Hot and dry conditions with light winds are expected under strong high pressure this week.
310 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 A cold front will cross the region tonight, providing another round of showers and possible thunderstorms.
The threat for severe storms looks very low at this time given the high amounts of moisture in the atmosphere. As for temperatures tonight, it looks like most areas should fall into the lower 70s. Highs on Tuesday should be warmer than what we saw today given less in the way of precipitation and cloud coverage. Lows will mainly be in the lower 70s.
The primary cold front appears to be located across southern IL and southeast MO early this afternoon with the majority of convection occurring along/ahead of it. This boundary is forecast to sag southward tonight as weak high pressure continues to settle into the mid-upper MS Valley. Glass Through the end of the week, upper level high pressure will retrograde slightly and remained anchored in the western U. with broad troffing aloft continuing and modulating in intensity across the northeast quarter of the CONUS.
A mid/upper level low/inverted trough across the northern Gulf of Mexico will gradually track westward and over South Texas through the period. Disturbance will move down the inverted trough with chances for PoPs highest across eastern zones this afternoon and evening. Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday as inverted trough axis sets up across the region. Trough axis and higher moisture remain in place across the region Tuesday night with slight chance to chance PoPs continuing. Afternoon temperatures will be slightly cooler than past several days due to increased rain/cloud cover and moisture.
700 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 A cold front will continue to move through the area this evening. Temperatures will be quicker to drop across northern portions of the forecast area overnight as cooler and drier air begins to work into the region. Due to this heat index values will be lower as well with values in the middle to upper 80s across the north to the lower 90s across the south closer to the boundary.
257 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016 The upper level high pressure dome which has largely suppressed most sensible weather (other than the heat) has moved far enough west to enable some changes for us in West Texas. The western extension of the mid-level ridge remains across the desert southwest through the week as a deepening trough slowly displaces the Bermuda High along the eastern seaboard.
the upper ridge will remain centered over the Four Corners region.
In the north central where there is an area of impressive shear is where lapse rates are the lowest. A persistent eastern Canadian trough and Western N. A ridge will maintain a nearly stationary boundary from the northern Rockies into the northern and central Plains. By the weekend the western ridge begins to build over the central U.
330 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 A weakening cold front will move south of the Ohio Valley by Tuesday night where it will become stationary. High pressure will slide across the lower Great Lakes through mid week.
A cold front will move across the area this evening and end the showers.
Skies will be mostly clear tonight with lows in the low/mid 70s. Central Alabama will remain between two upper ridges. A relative weakness between the ridges will allow for scattered convection each afternoon/evening. A weak upper low will shift WNW across the northern Gulf and into Louisiana/Texas by late Tuesday. Best rain chances on Tuesday will be across the southern counties closer to the passing low pressure area to our south.
552 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 A cold front moves through the region tonight.
None-the-less, dew pts are still a bit elevated (AOA 60 degrees), and thus cooling tonight coming off the high temperatures around 90 degrees will be somewhat sluggish, but should still fall into the 60- 65 degree range (outside of urban heat island of detroit), approaching normal values. Dry airmass (pw values around 1 inch)/850-700 mb theta-e trough will persist through tomorrow, providing seasonably warm day, as highs expected to reside in the upper 80s/near 90 based on 850 mb temps of 17-18 C.
The big thing to keep an eye on will be for heavy rainfall potential as PWS are on the high side for this time of year. Expecting more cloud cover tomorrow so highs will be a few degrees cooler, in the upper 80s-to-low-90s. The high pressure ridge that has been over the Southeast will be retreating eastward off the Atlantic coast to start the period.
406 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 An inland thermal trough and Bermuda high offshore pattern will prevail through the week ahead. Models indicate subtle shift in ridge axis to south, which will allow some short wave energy in westerly flow aloft to north to affect northern sections in afternoon, along with some increase in mid and upper level moisture.
414 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 An inland thermal trough and Bermuda high offshore pattern will prevail through the week ahead. Models indicate subtle shift in ridge axis to south, which will allow some short wave energy in westerly flow aloft to north to affect northern sections in afternoon, along with some increase in mid and upper level moisture.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday night): Subsidence continues across the CWA this afternoon between the 500mb ridge across the southwest United States and the broad 500mb low/inverted trough across the Gulf of Mexico. Subsidence will diminish across the lower TX coast tonight into Tuesday as a result and isolated to scattered convection will develop offshore tonight and inland Tuesday as the outflow from showers and thunderstorms across the upper TX coast this afternoon provide a focus for additional convection to develop. the seabreeze front Tuesday will also provide a focus for convection to develop across the lower TX coast early Tues afternoon and further inland Tues afternoon as the seabreeze front moves westward.
118 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016 Convection will continue to percolate today invof a slow-moving cold front. Temperatures will be around 5-10 degrees cooler tdy compared to ydy across most of the CWA except for the far southern CWA and eastern Ozarks. A cold front is forecast to stall across the region this week, which will act as a focus for pcpn.
The center of an upper level low has moved off the west coast of Florida this morning into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. 5 inches) across the CWA will be working against the upper level low to help limit convection over the land areas. High temperatures will be similar to yesterday with highs ranging from the low to mid 90s inland and upper 80s to lower 90s along the immediate coast. Heat indicies will generally be in the lower 100s today with only isolated places reaching the mid 100s.
210 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016 201 PM CDT High pressure will continue to provide tranquil weather through Tuesday. Expect lows in the lower 60s northwest to the mid 60s south, with around 70 in the immediate Chicago metro. Southern areas will likely see a slower cool down as dewpoints have hung on in the lower 70s, but should fall into the mid 60s tonight. The center of the high shifts east tomorrow but winds will continue to be light.
240 PM MDT MON JUL 25 2016 High pressure centered over the Four Corners will gradually move west toward the Great Basin over the next few days.
1140 AM MDT MON JUL 25 2016 18Z TAF CYCLE Upper high meandering over NM next 24 hours. The upper trough exiting the northern and central Rockies onto the Great Plains Tuesday will shift the loosely organized mid-level high pressure system NW of NM.
as a 500mb low/inverted trough across the northwest Gulf of Mexico moves westward. Increased cloud cover and moisture will return late Monday evening as an upper level low approaches from the east. /issued 441 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): Elongated high pressure ridging with centers located over the desert Southwest and near the Carolinas is being disrupted by general inverted troughing over the northern Gulf Coast states. An upper level low pressure system off the west coast of Florida will move across the Gulf today.
303 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016 18Z surface data has high pressure across the upper Midwest and Plains with a frontal boundary from the Ohio Valley into the southern Plains. Quiet and dry conditions will be seen across the area late this afternoon and through Tuesday as high pressure moves through the Midwest.
1235 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016 The departing short wave trof will result in large scale subsidence across the entire region today, with high pressure in control at the surface. The ridge axis will move off to the south tonight and Tuesday, allowing low level westerly flow to develop in the 925-850 mb layer. This will once again result in an increasing warm/moist advection pattern by 06z tonight, and sufficient moisture/instability/lift should be present by the midnight to 3 am time frame to result in showers and thunderstorms slowly developing along the nose of the 925-850 mb thermal ridge that will slowly build into northwest Minnesota tonight on the northwest periphery of the departing ridge axis.
Ely wave looks to be absorbed into the main upper flow by midweek, as a weak trof dips into the MS River Valley.
There is model agreement for thunderstorms to develop along the Continental Divide and specifically near Butte this afternoon, but most of north central Idaho and western Montana will be storm free and warmer today.
628 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 A cold front moves through the region tonight.
the next several days in response to upper anticyclone within the subtropical ridge consolidating back over the Desert Southwest. and Tuesday Quieter weather today and tonight as weak high pressure crosses the area. Moisture will increase again Tuesday as the return flow on the back side of the high spreads across the area.
Latest surface observations show very hot and humid conditions this morning, with temperatures already in the mid 80s to lower 90s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Cannot rule out a strong storm or two with wet microbursts this afternoon as lapse rates are a tad more steep than yesterday and mid levels are slightly cooler with 500 mb temperatures around -5C, but nothing widespread is anticipated.
Shower activity will die off early this evening with low temperatures tonight in the low 70s inland and mid/upper 70s coast.
Temperatures throughout the 7 day forecast will remain near normal for the time of year, much cooler than in recent days. Temperatures were adjusted a degree warmer the first few hours otherwise left overnight trend and mins alone.
232 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 A slow moving cold front will pass through the area this evening bringing the chance for scattered storms.
Today Through Tuesday Night Upper ridging over northern Rockies-plains will flatten as several short waves track eastward. Theta-E ridge builds over western SD/far NE WY during the afternoon, indicating additional thunderstorm development over northwestern SD. Strongest CAPE and Theta-E axis shifts eastward overnight, and coupled with the low level jet expect thunderstorms to continue eastward after midnight. Much larger area of CAPE > 3000 j/kg and broader Theta-E ridge ahead of low indicates more widespread storms and more likely severe storms.
Have lowered tonight's min temps as we are not changing airmass very much and min temps were in the lower 50s in parts of the Arrowhead this morning.
Tue an upr level ridge wl be centered ovr the Great Basin, and it is expected to remain in this area into Sat. It is then forecast to shift ovr CO on Sun as an upr trof moves into the Pacific NW.
Already seeing temps in the lower 80s at a lot of locations, so the forecast of upper 80s to lower 90s is still looking good. Upper level trough was over the western Great Lakes. Water vapor loop indicated an upper trough over northern ALTA/SASK with an east-west jet streak on the south side of upper low. Trough will move across northern MAN this afternoon. Upper trough will send a cold front into the northern REd River Valley by Tue afternoon. Low level ridging moves out of SASK and into the area Tue night and should push precip south and east of the area for Wed. However a weak low pressure system will move across SD Wed and may produce rain in the far southern Valley Wed.
309 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 Cold front moves into the region and stalls tonight. Cold front to move through the region this afternoon and this evening.
633 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through much of the week while a weak trough persists inland. After an unusually quiet day in regards to the lack of convection, another warm and humid night is on tap under deep layered ridging. A persistent weather pattern is in place as strong Atlantic mid/upper-level ridging extends across the Southeast and a weak trough remains far inland.
This has kept convective coverage fairly low across the area so far today with the highest coverage across the panhandle and coastal waters. Some deeper moisture is located just south of the area in association with a weak trough, and models indicate that this airmass will move northward later tonight.
Relief can be attributed to effects of outflow-enhanced cold front and expected cloud cover.
Heat index values have neared advisory levels this afternoon but with convective potential highest in areas with the highest heat index values. High temperatures should again reach into the lower 90s with high dewpoints.
453 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 A cold front will continue to move through the area today. Cold front will continue to work through the area this evening. Temperatures will be coolest across northern portions of the region tonight where there will be less cloud cover and more cooler air working into the region. Due to this heat index values will be lower as well with values in the middle to upper 80s across the north to the lower 90s across the south closer to the boundary.
650 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 High pressure over the region will keep above normal temperatures in the forecast through the end of the week. Isolated afternoon convection generally waning early this evening across the forecast area as the upper ridge remains strong overhead. High pressure ridge dominates the SE US through mid week with no airmass exchange for the next several days. At this time it appears most of the energy associated with this feature will stay north of SC, however it may be sufficient to push a cold front through the area Sat and Sun.
248 PM PDT MON JUL 25 2016 A ridge of high pressure will provide the Central California Interior with mostly clear skies and above average temperatures. These conditions will persist over the region for most of the coming week as the ridge of high pressure is expected to remain over the area.
204 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 Showers and thunderstorms will be observed in the hot and humid air mass which is in place, ahead of cold front which will move through the region this afternoon.
305 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016 201 PM CDT High pressure will continue to provide tranquil weather through Tuesday. Expect lows in the lower 60s northwest to the mid 60s south, with around 70 in the immediate Chicago metro. Southern areas will likely see a slower cool down as dewpoints have hung on in the lower 70s, but should fall into the mid 60s tonight. The center of the high shifts east tomorrow but winds will continue to be light.
Cooler and Much More Comfortable This Week with Increasing Aloft: Zonal flow was along the US-Can border with a weak trof over the Pac NW and subtropical highs over the Desert SW and Carolina's. The low-lvl jet will develop W of the fcst area tonight. and will be collocated with the moist tongue over the high plains. The approach of a strong trof and an 80-90 kts upr-lvl jet streak into Wrn Canada will nudge the Wrn USA ridge onto the Plains Sun with SW flow developing Mon with its passage. and this should force a warm front to develop across the Nrn/Cntrl Plains.
East-west oriented upper ridge extends across all of southern CONUS with two weak upper highs centered over the southwest US and off the Carolina coasts. most prominently shown in the 00Z GEM which almost appears like a weak tropical cyclone. through at least the end of the week a ridge of high pressure will be the dominant feature with diurnally driven convection each afternoon and evening. By the end of the week a trough sets up over the Mississippi Valley however the H5 ridge will keep it from pushing too far east.
249 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 High pressure will expand across the Carolinas, bringing uncomfortable levels of heat and humidity this week. Upper level ridging not only stays centered just off the coast through the period but it strengthens. Tuesday the piedmont trough appears to have a better chance than the sea breeze.
Expect patchy fog overnight as high pressure drifts across the region. Expect a lake breeze during the late morning and afternoon to keep temperatures near the lake a little cooler. 925mb temps should be about 2 degrees warmer than today, so that means high temperatures will be just a notch warmer as well.
Aloft, an inverted trof was seen on water vapor imagery over the nrn Gulf between a subtropical ridge off the SE CONUS and a ridge over the Desert SW. At the sfc, a weak trough stretched fm nr Toledo Bend se to just off the coast of the FL panhandle. The inverted mid/upr trof over the nrn Gulf will move very slowly west through the week, resulting in a continued unsettled weather pattern.