Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
200 PM CDT Sun Apr 25 2021 (Issued 200 PM CDT Sun Apr 25 2021) Tonight through Monday night: High pressure across WI will shift to the east of the area this period. Our airmass is quite parched in the lower layers. Surface warm front is proggd to lift just north of our area Monday night.
200 PM EDT Sun Apr 25 2021 High pressure will build over the Mid Atlantic tonight.
This aforementioned front will remain sprawled out across the southern portion of SD with an elongated area of low pressure anchored on it.
340 PM CDT Sun Apr 25 2021 The forecast area is pinned between a warm front well to the north in Nebraska and a dryline positioned roughly from las animas to east of Elkhart and into the Panhandles. Temperatures just out ahead of the dryline to just behind it have reached the low and mid 80s already at 3 pm. Still the higher elevation far western counties could remain around that 50 degrees mark with upper 40s fairly common from garden city westward.
227 PM CDT Sun Apr 25 2021 A beautiful afternoon with plentiful sunshine is well underway as mid level ridging continues to build into the area.
Rain chances will continue for northeast Florida through about noon, before the trough axis kicks east and the cold front pushes through the area. A cold front was located to the west of the area early this morning, and will begin to push into the area after 06Z. The cold front will then clear the area by 18Z. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 50s across the interior, and the low to mid 60s at the coast.
1205 PM CDT Sun Apr 25 2021 High pressure is currently bringing the Four State region pleasant conditions with clear skies, low humidity, and temperatures warming up through the upper 60s to lower 70s - towards expected afternoon maximums generally ranging from 77 to 80 degrees. This high pressure will shift off the east quickly tonight and tomorrow, which will then open the door to a bit more humidity and clouds. /Today through Monday/ Upper-level ridge to prevail through tonight, maintaining mostly clear skies and dry conditions areawide. Upper-ridge forecast to shift east on Monday allowing for southwest flow to advect moisture northeast across the region, resulting in increased cloudcover areawide.
110 PM EDT Sun Apr 25 2021 Low pressure continues moving away from the region as Canadian high pressure centered over the Mississippi Valley builds eastward. Rain chances increase late in the week as an upper level trough moves into the eastern US. Low pressure off the NJ coast continues moving away from the region with the upper level trough axis also moving offshore.
A mid level high pressure ridge over Texas this afternoon will drift east toward our forecast area tonight and by over the region on Monday. Light northerly flow this afternoon will become light and variable overnight as the ridge axis will be over the area, then gradually become more southeasterly on Monday as the return flow begins to develop. A little warmer on Monday as the return flow sets up, with highs mainly ranging from the 80s over inland areas to the mid to upper 70s right along the coast where the onshore flow off the cooler Gulf waters moderates temperatures somewhat.
Temperatures really struggled to climb after midday and most of the area was still in the lower to mid 70s by 20z. You have to go about 250 miles for closest group of clouds which was just behind the cold front that moved through yesterday and is now in the central Gulf. This is the quiet portion of the forecast but the nice cool and dry spring conditions we had today will quickly moderate tomorrow as high pressure at the surface slides east and a ridge builds over the Gulf and Gulf Coast states.
The onshore flow will strengthen on Monday as the gradient tightens between the high off to the east and deepening low pressure off to our west and northwest. There will be occasionally gusty south to southeast winds in the morning through afternoon hours, but moisture levels will remain on the low side and the forecast will remain dry. High temperatures should range from the low to mid 80s inland to around 80 at the coast.
215 PM EDT Sun Apr 25 2021 Mild high pressure will build across and offshore the Carolinas through Monday night. High pressure will then weaken throughout the week as a cold front approaches the area by the end of week. Mid-level trough and associated cold front has pushed through central NC. North-northwest winds 10-15 mph with gusts between 20 and 25 mph will decrease this evening with surface pressure gradient weakening and high pressure settling in for the overnight period. A sub-tropical ridge will slowly build from the mid-Mississippi River Valley east into the Tennessee Valley by Monday night, increasing H500 heights from 572 DM to 582 DM over central NC. Subsidence will help increase temperatures on Monday, with highs in the low 70s N to upper 70s S. Ridging will also help create clear skies through Monday night.
Guidance is coming in a bit cooler for overnight lows tonight, along with many locations where winds are expected to go calm. Have placed patchy fog in the forecast for those locations, in agreement with some of the higher resolution guidance solutions. We should easily rise into the lower 80s by Monday afternoon, but dewpoints should stay fairly dry in the lower 50s.
Morning lows got into the mid 50s across a good chunk of the area while the southshore dropped into the lower 60s. Only some minor hourly tweaks made as some of the region has warmed a degree or two faster than anticipated but afternoon highs still look on track and winds will continue to relax as high pressure builds in. High pressure has settled and temps have cooled along with a very stable environment.
Shower activity will continue across the Northern Rockies through Monday as a broad upper level trough slowly crosses the western US.
Flow aloft will become increasingly southwesterly as a splitting trough drops into the western US pushing some weak ridging east. Overnight and through Monday the trough will continue to move east. With the rain tomorrow, expecting temperatures to be cooler tomorrow, with highs only in the 40s to may lower 50s. With the cooler temperatures conditions do no look as unstable, so not expecting any thunderstorm chances.
354 PM CDT Sun Apr 25 2021 Mostly clear skies and gusty south winds have pushed temperatures into the 70s and even the low 80s across the area. Monday will be the warmest day of the week as we see very deep mixing and gusty southwest winds ahead of the upper trough deepening over the western CONUS.
335 PM EDT Sun Apr 25 2021 Mild high pressure will build across and offshore the Carolinas through Monday night. High pressure will then weaken throughout the week as a cold front approaches the area by the end of week. Northerly winds gusting between 20 and 25 mph will become light out of the north and northeast tonight and overnight with a weak back-door cold front and high pressure settling in across the Great Lakes and lower Ohio Valley. A sub-tropical ridge will slowly build from the mid-Mississippi River Valley east into the Tennessee Valley by Monday night, increasing H500 heights from 572 DM to 582 DM over central NC. Subsidence will help increase temperatures on Monday, with highs in the low 70s N to upper 70s S. Ridging will also help create clear skies through Monday night.
Window of favorable radiational cooling early tonight as a veering low level anticyclonic flow eases in magnitude with high pressure anchored to the north and skies remain clear. The underlying environment and overall magnitude of cold air in place does still suggest lows in the vicinity of freezing are in play. The most meaningful dip below freezing expected across the thumb given longer residence time for a clear sky and a generally colder profile already at onset. Freeze Warning will issued to highlight this corridor; elsewhere perhaps briefly touching freezing before clouds arrive. A few widely scattered showers or sprinkles not out of the question late Monday into Monday night along the warm front, but limited low level moisture quality and overall depth suggests a very muted response.
225 PM EDT Sun Apr 25 2021 Cold front that moved through yesterday is now well south of the CWA. High pressure will remain in control of the sensible weather through the remainder of the short term period.
The only forcing along the coast and west side is the cold air aloft in the core of the low. Scattered showers continue tonight into Monday as the upper low lingers over the area, decreasing late Monday as the upper level trough gradually moves eastward.
128 PM EDT Sun Apr 25 2021 Low pressure will continue off the middle Atlantic coast this morning. Mild, Pacific high pressure will follow and build across and offshore the Carolinas through Monday night. Mid-level trough and associated cold front has pushed through central NC. North-northwest winds 10-15 mph with gusts between 20 and 25 mph will decrease this evening with surface pressure gradient weakening and high pressure settling in for the overnight period.
High pressure will build into the area tonight from the northwest. Low temperatures will fall into the 50s inland and into the lower 60s coast. Highs will range from the mid 70s coast the lower 80s inland.
1201 PM CDT Sun Apr 25 2021 At 2 AM, high pressure was producing mainly clear skies across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. A warm front will move slowly through the region through tonight. The highest precipitation chances will be found along and north of Interstate 94. In addition, the dry dew points could potentially even cause some light freezing drizzle there too. Low temperatures on Monday morning will range from the lower 30s to lower 40s.
Otherwise, rest of the forecast looks good as high pressure will settle over the area today. For at least the next three days, expect dry and warming conditions as a ridge shifts across the Mississippi River Valley.
Current high pressure (starting to center just east of the region) will continue bringing the region slightly cooler than normal temperatures through tonight, but a quickly tightening west to east pressure tomorrow into tomorrow night will build low level southerly flow and a gradual air mass regime change. Through this time the upper ridge axis aloft will get near or just east of our longitude and allow higher level clouds to spill in from the west before dissipating. But the considerable increase in low clouds will hold off until late tomorrow night, when the low level Gulf of Mexico moisture starts to return into the region efficiently. Lows tonight will range from the low 50s east to upper 50s west with highs tomorrow in the low to mid 80s.
221 PM MDT Sun Apr 25 2021 Upper level analysis shows broad upper ridging across much of the western US ahead of an upper trough slowly moving onshore over the West Coast. A warm front has stalled out across the southern third of the forecast area today, with southwesterly flow and temperatures near 70 along the NE/SD border. Cooler temperatures with northerly winds have persisted this afternoon north of the front. Warmer temperatures are expected Monday with many areas into the 60s to low 70s; warmest expected along and south of I-90. Similar to Sunday, cloud cover will increase during the day Monday, potentially keeping temperatures cooler than currently forecast.
Temperatures will generally be a bit warmer, keeping most of the precipitation rain but few flakes could mix in across the north.
213 PM EDT Sun Apr 25 2021 Mild high pressure will build across and offshore the Carolinas through Monday night. High pressure will then weaken throughout the week as a cold front approaches the area by the end of week. Mid-level trough and associated cold front has pushed through central NC. North-northwest winds 10-15 mph with gusts between 20 and 25 mph will decrease this evening with surface pressure gradient weakening and high pressure settling in for the overnight period. A sub-tropical ridge will slowly build from the mid-Mississippi River Valley east into the Tennessee Valley by Monday night, increasing H500 heights from 572 DM to 582 DM over central NC. Subsidence will help increase temperatures on Monday, with highs in the low 70s N to upper 70s S. Ridging will also help create clear skies through Monday night.
Clouds will be on the increase tomorrow as cirrus spreads over the area ahead of the next storm system, but high temperatures will still likely be warmer than today as south/southwest low-level flow continues to advect higher temperatures over the area.
231 PM CDT Sun Apr 25 2021 A beautiful day is occurring across the Mid-South as high pressure has settled over the region. The high will begin to shift east tonight which will allow winds to begin to turn around to the south on the backside of the high.
210 PM EDT Sun Apr 25 2021 Surface Analysis early this afternoon shows high pressure in place over Wisconsin and Illinois. Water vapor shows weak broad ridging in place over the plains with NW flow in place aloft over Wisconsin. the models suggest ridging over the plains states to amplify a bit. Within the lower levels. the large area of high pressure to the west is expected to push across Indiana Overnight. a strong ridge axis aloft is depicted by the models to push across Indiana and the Great Lakes. This will bring some much warmer temps to Indiana to start the work week. Forecast soundings and time heights again show a dry column on Monday and Monday night as we remain within the influence of the ridging moving east and SW flow aloft.
Conditions will then become cooler over the weekend. Cold air advection will send overnight lows near to below freezing. Stout west-northwest to northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts around 30 mph and high temperatures in the mid 40s to near 50 (except cooler in cloud-covered NEK) will keep it from feeling too pleasant. The main story will be the low relative humidities. There's still some lingering gradient winds overnight, and some high clouds will be riding over the upper ridge crest to our west and into or just south of our forecast area.
1258 PM CDT Sun Apr 25 2021 A ridge of high pressure along the MS River Valley will shift east into the OH and TN valleys tonight. Low temperatures should bottom out in the middle to upper 40s (a modest ridge valley split expected). For those waiting for warmer temperatures, this is your week.
400 PM EDT Sun Apr 25 2021 Mid level height rises with high pressure at the surface has resulted in a sunny but cool day owning to the persistent northwesterly flow. How fast temps can drop will be important for potential freezing temps as there is a warm front to the west that will slide through central and northern MI tonight. Monday is the transition day out of the cool weekend pattern and into the warmer early week pattern as the upper level ridge slides eastward with the ridge axis crossing the area Monday night. Surface flow will turn southeasterly with midlevel southwest flow warming the column aloft south of the warm front still located across northern lower. In addition, southeast flow off Lake Huron will keep the Thumb cooler, possibly sub 50.
231 PM CDT Sun Apr 25 2021 The next trough to affect the area has been moving on shore today on the west coast and will move farther inland on Monday. Winds aloft will begin to back to the southwest in advance of this trough through the day on Monday.
253 PM MDT Sun Apr 25 2021 A duo of upper level lows well to the north over Canada and the other situated in the western US will slowly move east through the beginning of the week. Lows will be near freezing north and mid 30s south and while some stray showers could occur north of the Missouri River, the bulk of the POPs are expected to remain south of the Missouri as a cold rain with some snow flakes potentially mixing in around the morning hours. Once the upper trough traverses the Rockies, an upper ridge builds over the western US.
1151 AM MDT Sun Apr 25 2021 Some minor changes at this hour: Temperatures are running a little warmer than forecast, and it looks like slightly warmer highs this afternoon are supported. Winds are stronger over the high mountains and are working their way down the east slopes. A broad ridge of high pressure aloft will be over the forecast area through tonight. Residual showers in the high country at this time should diminish by 6 am. Strong southwest flow aloft will prevail Monday ahead of an upper level trough digging south along the west coast. Strongest winds are expected over the higher terrain and also south of I-76. With relative humidities falling into the lower teens and single digits, critical fire weather conditions are expected where precipitation has been limited over the past few weeks.
Temps just off the surface well below 0C so we are seeing in areas with temps in the low 40s when precipitation moves in change over to snow at temps 36/37. A notable area of instability will move near the area with this low, introducing the chance for some thunderstorms, although not expected to be severe. Long range pattern favors western US ridge nosing northeast into the Northern Plains by the end of the week, with troughing further south and east. Rising heights aloft and shifting storm track will tend to favor dry conditions, however weak cold fronts may still pass into our CWA due to clippers rounding the base of the trough in Canada.
Following the passage of the cold front last night, we have mostly clear skies and are expecting dry weather, due to deep layer ridging building to our west. Temperatures Monday morning will be in the 50s, and will warm to the low to mid 80s.
Winds will remain strong out of the south to southwest in response to the approaching upper level trough.
Upper low moving onshore across northern California and southern Oregon this afternoon. Believe the upstream cold front will remain stationary until this low gets closer to kicking it out Monday afternoon.
Otherwise, ridging both surface and aloft will keep conditions generally quiet over the region.
332 PM CDT Sun Apr 25 2021 Latest surface analysis at 19Z had a lee side trough into the high Plains while a tight pressure gradient was noted over eastern Kansas.
229 PM EDT Sun Apr 25 2021 Low pressure continues moving away from the region as Canadian high pressure centered over the Mississippi Valley builds eastward. Rain chances increase late in the week as an upper level trough moves into the eastern US. Current temperatures across the forecast area are in the low to mid 70s and expect highs just a couple degrees warmer with mid 70s in the northern Midlands and the upper 70s in the southern Midlands and CSRA.
Expect to continued to see rain and snow, with pockets of just snow later this evening in the higher terrain around Bemidji, Park Rapids, Itasca. Not a big drop off in temperatures from currents as airmass has moistened up with dew pts in the low 30s. This is tied to more 850 mb warm advection north of a sfc warm front which will be located from near Brookings to the Twin Cities.
1044 PM EDT Sun Apr 25 2021 High pressure will build over PA during the first part of the week resulting in dry weather and a significant warmup.
A ridge of high pressure along the MS River Valley will shift east into the OH and TN valleys tonight. Low temperatures should bottom out in the middle to upper 40s (a modest ridge valley split expected). For those waiting for warmer temperatures, this is your week.
/issued 231 PM CDT Sun Apr 25 2021/ The next trough to affect the area has been moving on shore today on the west coast and will move farther inland on Monday. Winds aloft will begin to back to the southwest in advance of this trough through the day on Monday.
The exception is across portions of west Tennessee, where readings have fallen into the lower 50s already. /issued 231 PM CDT Sun Apr 25 2021/ A beautiful day is occurring across the Mid-South as high pressure has settled over the region. The high will begin to shift east tonight which will allow winds to begin to turn around to the south on the backside of the high.
With the low level jet kicking in late tonight, expect low level wind shear to develop around FL020, with sustained speeds of 35-40 knots at the northern terminals (HRO, BPK).
The forecast area is pinned between a warm front well to the north in Nebraska and a dryline positioned roughly from las animas to east of Elkhart and into the Panhandles. Temperatures just out ahead of the dryline to just behind it have reached the low and mid 80s already at 3 pm. Still the higher elevation far western counties could remain around that 50 degrees mark with upper 40s fairly common from garden city westward.
A broad area of low pressure off the Oregon and northern California coast will maintain scattered showers across the forecast area through Monday.
Surface Analysis early this afternoon shows high pressure in place over Wisconsin and Illinois. Water vapor shows weak broad ridging in place over the plains with NW flow in place aloft over Wisconsin. the models suggest ridging over the plains states to amplify a bit. Within the lower levels. the large area of high pressure to the west is expected to push across Indiana Overnight. a strong ridge axis aloft is depicted by the models to push across Indiana and the Great Lakes. This will bring some much warmer temps to Indiana to start the work week. Forecast soundings and time heights again show a dry column on Monday and Monday night as we remain within the influence of the ridging moving east and SW flow aloft.
As the night progresses and the cold front across the Treasure Coast continues to move southward, northerly winds will prevail across all the waters overnight and become northeast on Mon morning and remaining in the 10-15 kt range.
622 PM EDT Sun Apr 25 2021 High pressure will build over PA during the first part of the week resulting in dry weather and a significant warmup.
This afternoon a slow moving warm front was located across the area. The warm front and associated WAA will drive the short term weather. Discussion: Overall ridging expected through the period as the WAA machine ramps up overnight tonight. We will end up seeing gusts in the high 30 mph and maybe even near 40 later in the day.
624 PM CDT Sun Apr 25 2021 Main forecast concerns in the short term are on precipitation type tonight over norther Clark and Taylor Counties, where a wintry mix or light freezing rain is possible tonight. Forecast soundings shows the surface cooling below freezing before this happens. This could lead to some freezing rain, especially on elevated objects such as trees but icing is expected to light. Ensemble members showing quite the spread on whether any icing would occur, but even the highest member suggests only around 1/10th inch of icing.
612 PM EDT Sun Apr 25 2021 Dry high pressure will build over the forecast area throughout the early to middle part of the week, leading to gradually warming temperatures.
/Issued 225 PM EDT Sun Apr 25 2021/ Cold front that moved through yesterday is now well south of the CWA. High pressure will remain in control of the sensible weather through the remainder of the short term period.
851 PM EDT Sun Apr 25 2021 High pressure over the Great Lakes will track eastward through Monday. As a result, a weak cold front will push south across the region tonight; stalling across central and southern Virginia.
Latest surface analysis at 19Z had a lee side trough into the high Plains while a tight pressure gradient was noted over eastern Kansas.
Otherwise, still expect a cooler night. Anderson (Issued 200 PM CDT Sun Apr 25 2021) Tonight through Monday night: High pressure across WI will shift to the east of the area this period. Our airmass is quite parched in the lower layers. Surface warm front is proggd to lift just north of our area Monday night.
Meanwhile, upper ridging will begin to build into the region from the west, with winds aloft become northwesterly. For those waiting for warmer temperatures, this is your week.
732 PM EDT Sun Apr 25 2021 A large area of high pressure will build into the Great Lakes overnight, offering dry weather and cool temperatures. As the high slides east early this week expect continued dry weather and a warming trend.