Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
At 300 mb there was a 110 knot jet streak entering the base of the trough over CA. Thermal ridge at 700 mb extended from TX up into NE and IA.
The persistent southerly low-level flow in place has also made it more muggy, and overnight lows should be a few degrees warmer than last night. It is quite a bit cooler behind the boundary, although still pretty close to current forecast lows. Most of the high- resolution model guidance does not suggest any precipitation forming across the area overnight, with instability on the decrease, and main low-level jet well to our west. Under a mostly clear sky, we look for early morning lows to drop into the lower 70s. Forecast highs in the low to mid 90s coupled with surface dew points close to 70 degrees will yield mixed layer capes of around 2500 J/kg, but the lack of any large scale forcing mechanism and weak wind fields across the area will keep the coverage to a minimum.
Lows tonight will be mild with lows in the lower to mid 70s expected. Convection should remain west of the forecast area through 23Z as it fires along the dryline as forcing increases as the upper trough moves out into the Plains in the afternoon. Highs on Tuesday will top out in the low to mid 90s for much of the area. By Tuesday night, a front associated with a main upper level low over Montana will be spanning from northern South Dakota extending into north central and west central Kansas.
Atmosphere is much cooler and more stable as complex of storms that developed across the area has shifted east into Minnesota. Can't rule out the threat for a tornado or two, but with the wind shear and instability remaining fairly weak in the low levels, will hold off on the mention for now.
Under a mostly clear sky, we look for early morning lows to drop into the lower 70s. Forecast highs in the low to mid 90s coupled with surface dew points close to 70 degrees will yield mixed layer capes of around 2500 J/kg, but the lack of any large scale forcing mechanism and weak wind fields across the area will keep the coverage to a minimum.
But still kept some slight chance POPs around with the high precipitable water -- 1.
921 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 A ridge aloft will remain over the area through mid-week.
733 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 A ridge aloft will remain over the area through mid-week.
752 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 An area of high pressure will remain centered along the east coast for the next few days, keeping a southerly flow across the region. It will be a warm and muggy night as lows will only fall to the lower 70s for most of the area. The lower Scioto Valley and ne KY could see lows in the upper 60s. Expect highs to be a few degrees cooler on Tuesday, in the upper 80s, as a little more cloud cover and pcpn coverage. A cold front moving through on Monday will bring an end to the precipitation and a pattern shift.
Will also need to monitor the northward track of the warm front overnight as it moves into northeastern SD from Onida to Watertown around 09Z. With the warm front nearing, the very dry airmass (current dewpoints in the 30s to low 40s over western and central CWA) will allow for low level moistening and dewpoints moving back into the upper 50s and low 50s overnight. Tuesday temperatures will be tricky, either in the upper 80s to low 90s, or much cooler in the upper 70s to low 80s if the stratus clouds linger longer.
The large closed upper low was located over Idaho/Utah/Nevada, with the leading edge of upper level impulses emerging from its base near the 4-corners area moving northeastward. The mid-upper level ridge will act to inhibit convection for the rest of this afternoon into early evening, after which the upper level impulses are progged to reach southwestern North Dakota. The closed upper low is progged to reach western MT/WY by daybreak Tuesday with upper level impulses becoming more numerous and spreading quickly north and east.
Mid/upper level ridge to the west remains dominant across S TX this afternoon, but is expected to shift westward as the upper low to the east of the area shifts west.
1025 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 An area of high pressure will remain centered along the east coast for the next few days, keeping a southerly flow across the region. Expect highs to be a few degrees cooler on Tuesday, in the upper 80s, as a little more cloud cover and pcpn coverage. A cold front moving through on Monday will bring an end to the precipitation and a pattern shift.
1057 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017 Long duration dry spell showing signs of ending this afternoon as upstream water vapor imagery continues to highlight an anomalously deep upper low pressure system over the Intermountain West.
S /CONUS/, and a retrograding of the upper ridge center to northern Mexico.
Dynamic upper low lifting up the Great Basin will affect our cwa with a risk of severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening. Not much going on in our region now, but strongly diffluent flow associated with the low is producing convection in ID and south central MT, the leading edge of which is moving into southern Park County. Abundant sunshine has allowed our temps to rise to the 70s and lower 80s, with dewpts rising into the lower- mid 50s, resulting in capes which have built to around 2000 j/kg per the latest mesoanalysis. Be alert for severe wx across the area between now and midnight! As the low tracks north through our cwa late tonight we will see dry slotting, with most precip west of our cwa in western and central MT.
The low clouds will lift by mid Tuesday morning and VFR conditions will prevail for a few hours.
Showers are diminishing as a cold low pressure system that brought relatively rare accumulating snow for June slowly exits the region. Expect roads to be wet tonight in the Sierra which could result in slick driving conditions as mountain temperatures drop below freezing. Freezing fog will be likely for the Truckee area, especially the Martis Valley; the Sierra Valley may also see some fog tonight with better chances over the next couple of nights. Otherwise, temperatures trend much warmer over the next few days with daily highs increasing 5-8 degrees each afternoon.
Temperatures were in the low 80s with dew points in the mid 70s with winds from the east at around 10 mph.
Upper low over NV to lift into s central MT tomorrow. Farther north, say north of the high 200 corridor, there will be less severe potential however with recent heavier rainfall there is is the potential for some localized ponding in low lying and flood prone areas.
/Issued 325 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017/ Continuing with a near-persistence forecast through Tuesday as high pressure remains over the region.
902 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 The large scale ridge axis will sharpen as it pushes north over the next few days.
These low and mid level clouds obscure the higher terrain. VFR cigs will obscure the highest peaks overnight into Tuesday morning then skies will clear after 16Z. Offshore high pressure will strengthen Tuesday with increasing north winds.
Remainder of the night should be dry with low temperatures a bit warmer than this morning's readings in the low to mid 70s. The upper level ridge weakens slightly, and it will be a bit more humid than today. The upper ridge will be weakening slightly, and this may also allow for a greater chance of convection on Tuesday afternoon.
Relief will come in the form of a cold front Tuesday.
617 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017 Long duration dry spell showing signs of ending this afternoon as upstream water vapor imagery continues to highlight an anomalously deep upper low pressure system over the Intermountain West.
High temperatures are expected in the low 90s, and morning lows will drop to the low 70s.
Ridging should maintain dry weather tonight. A broad upper trough is expected to advance across the nrn CONUS through the week, maintaining daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.
With winds expected to continue to lighten over the next few hours, will allow the high wind warnings and wind advisories to expire. The cold front is just encroaching upon northeast Utah this afternoon with strong southwesterly winds ahead of the front and the parent upper level low spinning in northeast Nevada. As previously mentioned, winds will gradually die down behind the front as the colder air works in but breezy conditions can still be anticipated across the higher terrain. This will be the case again on Tuesday as the base of the upper level low swings through the region.
1132 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 The large scale ridge axis will sharpen as it pushes north over the next few days.
630 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017 Thunderstorm activity near KPVW may hold together trough 03Z-05Z as it makes its way toward KCDS. This was in response to a deep upper level low currently in the Great Basin. This low will eject out of the Great Basin into the northern Rockies and then the northern Plains tomorrow. Surface dew points in the lower 60s have allowed mixed layer instabilities to climb to around 2000 J/kg already and could go slightly higher in the next few hours.
Surface dew points at the top of the hour range from the lower 60s to around 70, highest towards south central NEB. A few thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday evening across Boyd, Holt, Garfield, and Wheeler Counties, some may be strong to severe as a negatively tilted trough swings through the region. The best moisture will be ahead of a cold front in eastern Nebraska by the time the storms fire so whether or not our eastern counties see any stronger activity will depend on the timing of this feature.
This combined with light winds and a lingering cold air mass will allow temperatures to lower into the lower to mid 30s and localized areas down into the upper 20s for areas east of the Cascades.
Radar trends over northern Wyoming and southern Montana showcase a variety of showers and thunderstorms along a curved band rapping around a low pressure centered somewhere over southeastern Idaho. GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: Tonight a vigorous low pressure system will push in from the southwest, bringing an expansive area of showers and thunderstorms as well as gusty east to southeast winds. By Tuesday morning, dry air will begin to wrap into the low pressure system overhead, causing a decrease in precipitation coverage.
1025 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 High pressure centered along the southern Middle Atlantic coast will drift offshore tonight. A backdoor cold front will follow and settle south through VA into northern NC into Thu. The higher dew points and the considerable high clouds will aid in keeping lows up overnight. Associated destabilization and weak forcing for ascent, atop an 850 mb theta-e ridge nosing into those areas from the sw, will support a higher- than-previous-days chance of diurnal convection (15-30 percent), mainly from Albemarle to Raleigh to Warrenton and points nwwd.
332 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Primary challenge for the short term will be overnight lows, potential for some very light freezing rain over northwest MN tomorrow morning, and timing/placement/QPF amounts of several waves of precip beginning this evening. Precip associated with the jet maxima in central ND will mainly impact the Valley City to Lisbon area and will be in warmer air. which will provide only a narrow window for any mixed precip or freezing rain. As a clipper passes to the northeast, a cold front will move through from the north bringing colder temperatures throughout the column.
A cold front and associated rain showers will slide through NE Montana beginning tonight.
Northwest winds will diminish and temperatures will fall at or below freezing tonight across most of the region. although later shifts may need to amend and add these counties as low temperatures will be close to freezing in these areas. This could affect low temperatures by a degree or two, which could make a difference in some areas of freezing or 33/34 degrees.
250 PM MDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Large scale trough over the eastern US and ridge across the western US remain in place, with northerly flow across the Plains (including our CWA). At the Surface a trough axis currently bisects our CWA, with a stalled front near the Colorado border. Surface winds shift to the west overnight with increasing WAA through the night, and most locations should see overnight lows above freezing for the first time in several nights. This trough will push a cold front towards our CWA, and current guidance has this passage late enough in the afternoon to allow for a good window of WAA over at least the southerly half of our CWA. This will again depend on the timing of the cold front (the earlier the stronger the winds).
143 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 A cold front stretched across the region will bring periods of rain and low ceilings this afternoon. However, rain will continue to move in this afternoon as the cold front moves east.
327 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 High pressure remains in place across the region keeping conditions dry and quiet. Temperatures for Saturday night will be chilly again, although, warmer than the previous couple nights. Expect lows in the low to mid 30s. Highs on Sunday will range from the low 50s along the South Dakota border to the upper 60s south of I-80. The large scale pattern remains highly amplified early Sunday night and will feature a 500 hPa longwave trough dominating much of CONUS with a closed low near extreme southwest Ontario. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge will have broken down in the west with a mid-level low moving onshore to southern CA. The large scale upper-level trough will then broaden across the CONUS over the next 48 hours with cyclonic flow prevailing aloft.
/issued 236 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017/ Meridional flow will continue through Sunday as the large trough moves off the east coast. Lee troughing and southwesterly surface winds will help us to warm up to the 70s tomorrow.
A strong upper level trough remains just west of the forecast area, with the associated surface cold front just east of the TN Valley. Temperatures will be rather cool, given the strong CAA, with daytime highs expected to remain in the lower 50s (roughly 20 degrees below normal for late October). The deep upper trof axis will be overhead Sunday morning, fortified by another impulse dropping into its base later tonight. At the surface, the ridge axis will shift into the central Gulf Coast and TN valley.
204 PM PDT Sat Oct 28 2017 High pressure will weaken today over the region as a low pressure system moves into Southern California Sunday night.
Beyond that, cooler and even drier air will filter into our county warning area with little chance of any measurable rainfall.
40") will preclude much if any cloud cover (perhaps some passing CI traveling around the base of the H25 trough).
311 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 A dry warm front will progress across the region overnight, supporting somewhat warmer temperatures in the 20s- 30s, coldest over eastern Kansas. Much warmer and breezy weather expected Sunday, as downslope/compressional southwest low-level flow increases ahead of another cold front approaching from the north.
329 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Temperatures range from the low 40s in northwest TN to the mid 50s in northeast MS this afternoon. Tomorrow will be a bit warmer, mainly due to less expected cloud cover. Winds will back during the day towards the south which should keep the area above freezing tomorrow night. Significantly warmer conditions are expected to begin the work week with sunny skies and southerly winds leading to high temps in the mid 60s to near 70.
Aloft, a sharp trof axis originating from an upper level low over Hudson Bay extends south through the Great Lakes into the mid- Mississippi River Valley, just to the east of the WFO MPX coverage area. Nearly meridional flow aloft has made for effective cold air advection but the western ridge has made barely any progress into Minnesota, keeping low stratus in place for the eastern half of Minnesota through western Wisconsin. The warm front out west will shift east as the low over central Canada drops into southern Manitoba province. Temperatures tonight will range from the lower 20s in western WI to the lower 30s in western MN tonight followed by highs 40-50 tomorrow. A couple of cold front will affect the region during the period.
1215 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Hazardous Weather: None Aloft: WV imagery/00Z upr-air charts and model analyses showed a highly amplified ridge/high along the W coast and a trof extending from the GtLakes to TX. This N flow will cont today with the trof picking up speed as it moves E. This system will induce warm frontogenesis from the Wrn Dakota's down to TX. As this low dives to near Lake Winnipeg tonight. it will drive the warm front E into the CWA between midnight and sunrise Sun. Trimmed 2-4F off highs from prvs fcst E of Hwy 281 with the Wrn edge of the H8 thermal trof still over the E 1/2 of Neb/KS. The approach of the warm front will at least maintain these clds. A cold front will move through the forecast area on Sunday.
236 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Meridional flow will continue through Sunday as the large trough moves off the east coast. Lee troughing and southwesterly surface winds will help us to warm up to the 70s tomorrow.
Cold front continues to move east of the area tonight with rain slowly shifting east and colder air moving in from the west. Trough axis will pivot east tonight, and winds will increase from the northwest late tonight and Sunday morning. The combination of upslope orographic lift and remaining moisture may allow for some precipitation across the higher terrain. While temperatures will be cold enough for a wintry mix of light precipitation late tonight and Sunday across the higher elevations above 3000 feet, think that most will be drizzle/freezing drizzle/ice riming due to the fact that there is very little moisture through the DGZ and efficient snow growth appears unlikely. Regardless, this wintry mix will lead to some icy spots across the higher elevations.
1223 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Clearing skies on the back side of the upper trough have allowed temperatures to begin falling by several degrees over the last few hours, a trend which should continue into the post-dawn hours, allowing most sites to hit or fall below freezing this morning. Should any sites not fall below freezing (main concern would be in central MO where cloud cover is more persistent), the Freeze Warning will be reissued for tonight; otherwise, all areas that experience below freezing temperatures will be done for the season with frost/freeze products. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected this afternoon under more abundant sunshine and weaker cold-air advection, but below- normal highs near 50 are still the upper end of expectations this afternoon as cold air aloft continues to filter down the back side of the upper trough.
256 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 As of mid-afternoon, a surface analysis had low pressure near Mackinac Island, Michigan while yesterday's cold front was now along the spine of the Appalachians. Visible satellite imagery showed a blanket of stratus wrapping around the low from the Upper Midwest through the lower Ohio Valley. For this evening and tonight, plan on mostly cloudy to overcast skies with the moisture remaining trapped in the low-level inversion. Moisture time-height analysis across the area shows little erosion or drying of the moisture overnight and this increased cloud cover combined with a steady wind should preclude widespread freezing or sub-freezing temperatures. For tomorrow, plan on mostly cloudy to overcast skies in the morning then some improvement west to east in the afternoon as the upper level trough axis moves east of the area.
A Canadian cold front will begin to push southwest over the Continental Divide late tonight. Areas near Bad Rock Canyon and Flathead Lake will likely see the higher gusts into the late afternoon hours. The highest waves will likely occur between 9am-12pm, but remain choppy through the day. Areas of north- central Idaho and Lemhi County will be largely spared of the winds for much of the day, so seasonable temperatures can be expected in these locations, though likely a little cooler than what you have seen today.
1204 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Sharp trough axis associated with the latest cold frontal passage swinging through the Lower Mississippi Valley today, bringing a clearing trend through the remainder of the afternoon.
552 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 A dry warm front will progress across the region overnight, supporting somewhat warmer temperatures in the 20s- 30s, coldest over eastern Kansas. Much warmer and breezy weather expected Sunday, as downslope/compressional southwest low-level flow increases ahead of another cold front approaching from the north.
A cold front will move through, bringing a chance of rain and breezy northwest winds. Warm air advection today has allowed temperatures to rise well above freezing. These warmer temperatures will hold on through most of the night and keep precipitation in the form of rain. With colder temperatures filtering in Sunday afternoon and evening some snow may develop around the Turtle Mountains as a secondary cold front moves into the north. Overnight Sunday there is a chance of light snow as the secondary cold front and an upper level wave rotates around the low in Canada.
436 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 A cold front has moved through the region, but its rain is lingering over the southeast part of the forecast area. As cold surface air continues to advect into the area, higher elevations will fall below freezing. The end result will be a threat of freezing drizzle or light freezing rain, generally at elevations near or above 2000 feet. As the upper trough shifts to our east and surface ridging nudges in from the west, the last of the light precip will end on Sunday and clouds will begin to break up by late in the day. The ridge axis will move to our east Sunday night and warm air advection will begin. Clouds should increase again as another lobe swings into a mean eastern CONUS trough.
316 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Early morning temperatures dipped into the upper 20s to lower 30s, with virtually every location with an observation recording freezing temperatures. While the headlines have been expired, we can still expect one more night of freezing temperatures, with some areas falling several degrees below last nights low temperatures. Middle to upper 20s are expected, with the exception of the KC urban areas that should remain warmer in the lower 30s. With the ridge axis moving east, warm air advection ahead of the next cold front will bring much warmer conditions Sunday afternoon with readings closer to normal in the middle 50s to lower 60s.
Cold high pressure will continue to settle over the region over the next 24 hours. My thinking is, if winds can calm down for just a bit, especially in the more rural areas, temperatures could drop to, or just below, freezing for at least an hour or two. On Sunday, high pressure will be firmly in place across the forecast area.
147 PM MDT Sat Oct 28 2017 A large upper level high pressure ridge along the west coast extending from northern Baja California to northern British Columbia will produce rather strong northerly flow aloft across the northern Rockies.
127 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Rain will accompany a cold front across the region today. A cold front is now pushing into the eastern portions of the forecast area late this morning. Fries The amplifying trough over the Central CONUS will shunt that front over the Upper Ohio today, but the jet-energy digging the trough is projected to slow progress and result in a brief period of split upper flow. The latest model trends are thus holding the moisture plume and precip over the ridges through Sunday, which is a deviation from yesterdays solutions. That same slowing trend is also retarding the encroachment of colder air over those same areas; thus, this mornings forecast issuance delays snow accumulation over the ridges until Sunday night, although some snow may mix with lingering rain over points west.
Cold front that will move through the area late tonight is currently over southern Alberta.