Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Precipitation over land should be done afterwards as cooler and drier air filter down the peninsula overnight. Skies becoming MClear tonight and continuing MSunny on Fri with a cooler/drier airmass in place. Cool front passing across the southern coastal waters this evening with high pressure slowly building into the area overnight and thru Fri. A much cooler/drier airmass in place on Fri with min RHs falling into the U20s to M30s W of I-95 and 40-45pct at the immediate coast.
The trough should deepen even more Friday afternoon due to strong heating, maintaining solid breezy and gusty conditions from mid or late Friday morning through the afternoon. /issued 138 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020/ Temperatures are on the rise across the region compared to yesterday, with highs expected to eclipse the lower 90s this afternoon across much of the forecast area.
Cooler temperatures are still on track for Friday as well after hitting 81 here at KGGW (and at KJDN; KOLF hit 79). 97 The upper level ridge that brought warm, dry weather the past few days is beginning to move east today. Widespread rain showers is expected to travel northeast and continue to moisten the lower levels of the atmosphere, covering much of the CWA through tomorrow morning.
737 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020 High pressure will shift across the area tonight, bringing lighter winds and clear skies. Warmer temperatures will overspread the region on Friday as southerly winds begin to develop.
Relatively deep upper trough will progress eastward across the region overnight in the wake of this mornings cold front. A seasonably cool airmass will be in place with low temperatures dropping into the lower 50s overnight.
A deep upper low continues to slowly rotate through the Ohio valley tonight with a quick perturbation in this flow moving through eastern Kentucky. A deep upper low across the Ohio valley is bringing cloud cover to much of the area with some breaks currently at KCHA. AD Chattanooga Airport, TN 46 73 50 80 58 / 0 0 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 68 47 77 59 / 30 0 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 45 70 47 77 58 / 20 0 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 60 42 71 54 / 50 20 0 10 10.
The ridge will move east of the area during the overnight hours. Meanwhile, the upper trough is lifting away with a few cu far to our NE.
Surface analysis this evening places a 1015 mb ridge of high pressure over the Ozarks. /issued 348 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020/ High pressure seems to have settled into the area on northwest flow aloft, and dry weather should persist through the end of the weekend. Tomorrows high temperatures will be in the mid 70s and by the weekend temperatures will be in the lower 80s.
Winds will remain light overnight and into tomorrow as high pressure moves in from the west.
/EC/ Prior discussion below: High pressure is building over the western Gulf Coast, resulting in some quieter weather across the region in the short term. Temperatures will continue to be a little below seasonal normals tonight under the ridge.
644 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020 Warmer air builds into the region tonight, amidst ridging aloft and southerly returns flow. Most CAMs suggest light rain showers or sprinkles cannot be ruled out along and west of the James River Valley late tonight and along and northeast of the Buffalo Ridge in MN on Friday morning. Friday will bring notably warmer and breezy weather with temperatures peaking about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than Thursday.
724 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2020 Moist northerly flow in the wake of a slowly exiting low pressure system will maintain an extensive low stratus deck tonight. Gradual clearing from northwest to southeast mid-late morning Friday, as building high pressure bring drier conditions. This low has been visually impressive on the radar and visible satellite through the day. However by the afternoon dry air moves over the region with very modest surface ridging to allow for plenty of sun.
Current satellite imagery shows a shield of stratus and strato cu covering the region in the wake of a departing low pressure system. Currently have overnight lows falling into the low to mid 40s, however, depending on how fast we clear, could also see some temps across the region dip into the upper 30s with the aid of radiational cooling. The switch back to a warm regime will be flipped up Friday night, as a warm front pushes northeast across the region.
An upper level ridge will continue to move over the central United States as high pressure continues across the Northland. By early Friday morning, a jet streak will move east across the northern Great Plains while an area of low pressure moves east across the Dakotas. Global and mesoscale models are in agreement that rain will move into our western counties in the early afternoon hours on Friday ahead of the area of low pressure. Warm air advection and weak frontogenesis from a warm front across central MN/northern Wisconsin will bring widespread stratiform rain from west to east across the area through the overnight hours.
618 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020 High pressure will shift across the area tonight, bringing lighter winds and clear skies. Warmer temperatures will overspread the region on Friday as southerly winds begin to develop.
/issued 249 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night): Tranquil weather will persist through much of the short-term period as a mid-level ridge axis progresses eastward over much of the central CONUS tonight and through the day on Friday. Lows tonight will be very similar to last night, perhaps a degree or two cooler, depending on how light winds get. Winds will be become breezy by midday tomorrow, especially along the coast, as high pressure across the Gulf interacts with low pressure in the Plains. With southeast winds returning and no cold fronts on the horizon, a warming trend will begin tomorrow, with highs reaching the low-mid 90s in most locations under sunny skies. Low level clouds will make a return by Friday night helping keep temperatures warm, with lows only reaching the low-mid 70s in most spots.
/EC/ High pressure is building over the western Gulf Coast, resulting in some quieter weather across the region in the short term. Temperatures will continue to be a little below seasonal normals tonight under the ridge.
High pressure will lead to abnormaly warm and dry conditions for the foreseeable future. High pressure has led to another abnormally warm day across northern Arizona today. Extensive high clouds have helped keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday, but highs are still well-above normal for late April. In addition, we are seeing breezier winds today as the high pressure ridge that caused our prolonged warm spell has weekend and shifted eastward. Ensemble data generally favors a strengthening high pressure ridge around mid-week, but other guidance suggests a zonal pattern will persist.
241 PM PDT Thu Apr 30 2020 Warm weather will continue this week, though high temperatures will gradually trend cooler through the weekend, reaching near normal levels.
902 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020 Radar imagery this evening shows a few light showers continue to rotate into the Upper Cumberland around an upper level low off to our northeast.
A few showers will be possible along the coast and across the high terrain.
Current satellite clearly shows the mid level trough axis just to our east, and high pressure settling over the Gulf Coast. On Friday, the 8h ridge will shift into middle TN and AL by midday.
638 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020 (This evening through Friday) Calm conditions will continue tonight into Friday, with warmer temperatures overnight and an increasing southerly winds.
Mainly just a wind type forecast as the high pressure system moves across with northwest winds until sunset, followed by light and variable during the evening and overnight, then south winds around 10 knots for all terminals by 01/15Z with some gusts over 15 knots for KBPT.
/issued 313 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020/ (Tonight and Friday) An upper level ridge will build across the area the next 24 hours, resulting in hot and dry conditions for Friday. A lee trough will also remain in place and strengthen some by tomorrow, with gusty south to southwest winds developing. Temperatures will be warmer tonight, as the low levels remain mixed and boundary layer moisture increases, with overnight lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Temperatures will be well above normal tomorrow, with afternoon highs ranging from the low to mid 90s over southeast sections, to the upper 90s across western portions of the Big Country and Concho Valley.
Lee troughing will soon stretch from the Southern Plains to the Prairie Provinces, setting up a low-level conveyor from the Gulf to Manitoba.
442 PM MDT Thu Apr 30 2020 The upper level ridge that brought warm, dry weather the past few days is beginning to move east today. Widespread rain showers is expected to travel northeast and continue to moisten the lower levels of the atmosphere, covering much of the CWA through tomorrow morning.
Closed upper low/deep trough over the region continues very slow eastward track. Upper low currently on a southeast trajectory and will move off the Atlantic coast late Fri. Upper ridge will build in behind and bring us dry weather up into Sun. By early Sun, upper ridge breaking down and by this point a cold front is sitting just northwest.
At 17Z, high pressure was centered over southeast TX with a ridge amplified into MN and south through the Bay of Campeche. This wind will subside greatly by 23-00Z as the ridge shifts east across the lower MS River Valley. Patchy valley fog should result late tonight with lows in the lower to middle 40s. On Friday, the 8h ridge will shift into middle TN and AL by midday.
/issued 348 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020/ High pressure seems to have settled into the area on northwest flow aloft, and dry weather should persist through the end of the weekend. Tomorrows high temperatures will be in the mid 70s and by the weekend temperatures will be in the lower 80s.
850 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2020 The forecast remains on track this evening as high pressure builds in from the west. Skies will be sunny on Friday under dry high pressure as mid level ridging settles over the region in the wake of a departing mid level trough moving away from the Northeast region. Last elements of convection associated with the cold front have moved offshore, with high pressure settling in behind the frontal passage throughout tonight. Overnight low temperatures is expected to drop down into the lower 50s for inland areas and in the mid to upper 50s for coastal areas and along the St Johns River.
548 PM MDT Thu Apr 30 2020 Upper ridge is translating across the Rockies today with an upstream trough building into the the West. A similar scenario look on track for tomorrow though temperatures will be down just a but with the departure of the upper ridge.
Cooler conditions and NE winds will be likely to the east of it as we go into the early evening. Light winds are expected tonight, with weak high pressure moving through. However, moisture in the low levels is rather meager per area forecast soundings. Mild temperatures into the middle 60s are expected inland on Friday, with onshore winds keeping areas near the lake cooler.
812 PM MDT Thu Apr 30 2020 Critical fire weather conditions have ceased across the lower elevations of southwest Colorado as winds have decreased and relative humidity has increased. Upper ridge is translating across the Rockies today with an upstream trough building into the the West. A similar scenario look on track for tomorrow though temperatures will be down just a but with the departure of the upper ridge.
Today Through Saturday A high pressure haiku: High pressure is here Bringing fair weather and warmth Some clouds, but no rain The weather will be quiet through the period with only some passing clouds tomorrow and Saturday.
311 AM EDT Fri May 1 2020 Low pressure should maintain scattered showers and cloud cover through today.
This will be reflected in a weak surface trof moving into central Kansas. Otherwise, warmer air moving off the high Plains will overspread the area with a modest increase in moisture on brisk southerly flow ahead of the trof along and east of I-135. A stronger surface cold front is progged to sag southward into central Kansas late tonight into Saturday morning, before becoming quasi-stationary during the early afternoon.
Attention turns to an approaching cold front that is currently being analyzed over western Montana through southeast Idaho into northern Nevada this afternoon.
455 AM EDT Fri May 1 2020 A quiet forecast is in store to start the beginning of May as a mid- level trough passes through the area. The rest of today is expected to remain dry and mostly cloud free aside from some high level clouds as this trough pushes east. Simultaneously, high pressure is expected to build in at the surface through the day today persisting through much of the short term period.
Current satellite clearly shows the mid level trough axis just to our east, and high pressure settling over the Gulf Coast. On Friday, the 8h ridge will shift into middle TN and AL by midday. Lows Saturday morning with continued ridge influence and light flow should dip into the m40s east. So edged temps 1-2C above suggested blends in the l-m80s (u70s atop the higher Plateau areas).
Clouds behind the trough that brought the gusty winds to most of the area.
1108 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020 (This evening through Friday) Calm conditions will continue tonight into Friday, with warmer temperatures overnight and an increasing southerly winds.
Thunderstorm chances looking less likely and now most likely confined to areas across the Devils Lake basin and northernly valley if some afternoon sun allows instability to develop ahead of cold frontal passage late this afternoon and or evening. Upper level trough will move across Ontario Sat night through Sun night with the forcing to remain north of the area. However the system will send a cold front across the area Sun. Little if any precip is expected with the cold front. Upper level ridge over the Rockies will then shift over the area Sun night. Approaching trough will provide lift for the Mon into Tue time frame. Models differ on timing of the upper trough, so confidence is not high. Some agreement by late in the period with the flow aloft becoming more northwesterly which may allow for cooler weather.
Latest sfc analysis drapes the cold front bordering the southern FL Atlantic coastline through the FL Straits. Post-frontal wind regime has veered northwesterly, with cooler air sending morning lows to below average values in the mid to upper 50s areawide. High pressure centered along the northern Gulf Coast will drift towards FL today and tonight, leading to a bit of variability in winds from northwest to northeast this afternoon.
200 AM PDT Fri May 1 2020 Warm weather will continue with highs trending slightly cooler thru the weekend.
High pressure will lead to abnormally warm and dry conditions for the foreseeable future. Gusty winds have decreased across much of the high country this evening and will remain mainly light tonight with a relatively weak surface gradient. High pressure has led to another abnormally warm day across northern Arizona today. Extensive high clouds have helped keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday, but highs are still well-above normal for late April. In addition, we are seeing breezier winds today as the high pressure ridge that caused our prolonged warm spell has weekend and shifted eastward. Ensemble data generally favors a strengthening high pressure ridge around mid-week, but other guidance suggests a zonal pattern will persist.
A sprinkle cannot be completely ruled out mainly north, although the lower levels look quite dry so will keep precip out of the forecast for now.
A deep upper low continues to slowly rotate through the Ohio valley tonight with a quick perturbation in this flow moving through eastern Kentucky. Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 50 80 58 83 / 0 0 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 47 77 59 82 / 0 0 10 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 70 47 77 58 82 / 0 0 10 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 42 71 54 79 / 20 0 10 10 20.
Low pressure was centered over the High Plains this morning, and will shift east with time. A few locations in the Osage Plains could reach the low 80s. Short wave ridging will occur on Saturday helping to boost temperatures in the 80s.
Increasing heights behind the departing trough will allow temperatures to climb to near seasonal norms this afternoon.
Radar imagery this evening shows a few light showers continue to rotate into the Upper Cumberland around an upper level low off to our northeast.
Upper ridging over Texas that earlier in the week looked like it would build eastward into the Gulf of Mexico now looks like it will remain over Texas and may even build westward.
Relatively deep upper trough will progress eastward across the region overnight in the wake of this mornings cold front. A seasonably cool airmass will be in place with low temperatures dropping into the lower 50s overnight. Seasonable temperatures are expected on Friday with high temperatures in the lower 80s as the upper trough begins to exit to the east.
Weak high pressure is situated over the region with clear skies and light winds. Temps have dropped into the mid 40s in the typical cooler places across west TN and north MS. Elsewhere temps are in the lower to mid 50s. Beautiful weather will prevail across the Mid-South under high pressure at the surface and aloft. Southerly flow will increase on Saturday and temps will climb into the lower 80s.
Weak trof passage from the Northwest expected today and seasonable temps around 80 degrees this afternoon under Mostly Sunny skies. High pressure ridge builds into the region tonight and under clear skies expect another cool night for early May with widespread lows near 50 degrees inland and mid to upper 50s closer to the Atlc Coast.
1157 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2020 Moist northerly flow in the wake of a slowly exiting low pressure system will maintain an extensive low stratus deck overnight. Gradual clearing from northwest to southeast during the latter half of the morning period, as building high pressure bring drier conditions. This low has been visually impressive on the radar and visible satellite through the day. However by the afternoon dry air moves over the region with very modest surface ridging to allow for plenty of sun.
207 AM MDT Fri May 1 2020 A cold front brought showers and thunderstorms to the forecast area overnight. Cooler temperatures and NW winds will move in today with drier air that will clear skies as the day progresses.
This will help develop lee-side troughing and a southerly flow throughout the Plains from TX up through MN. This southerly flow will allow WAA in the lower levels to help us reach into the 80s. A weak cold frontal boundary will move into northern Missouri Friday night and stall in an east- west orientation Saturday morning.
Otherwise, surface observations show temperatures in the lower to mid 50s across the area, which is just about to our forecasted low temperatures for tonight. Temperatures on Friday and Saturday will reach the lower to mid 80s each day, which is around 5 degrees above seasonable normals. Friday nights temperatures will be slightly warmer than what we are seeing tonight with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area.
436 AM EDT Fri May 1 2020 Under partly cloudy skies and northwest to north winds of 15 to 20 mph, temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s with dewpoint readings dropping into the lower to mid 60s. In wake of the cold front which passed through our entire area early this morning, a deep tropospheric high pressure cell in the Southeast United States and Gulf of Mexico will expand over the Sunshine State equatorward to the island of Cuba.
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): Difficult to bloviate when high pressure will dominate. Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will be under the influence of 500 mb high pressure, which will remain centered over northern Mexico throughout the period. Dry weather with above normal temperatures will be the result of the mid-level ridge.
357 AM EDT Fri May 1 2020 With the departure of an upper-level trough off the coast of New England, zonal flow is setting in across the CONUS. With the current center of the high situated off to our West currently, this is allowing a north wind to filter in cooler and drier air from a continental airmass, leading to clear skies and comfortable temperatures to kick off the weekend.
327 AM EDT Fri May 1 2020 Dry and warmer weather will settle in today.
Another relatively cool day Friday before much warmer temperatures expected. Period starts out with the region under weak upper ridging and warm/dry weather for the weekend.
1045 PM PDT Thu Apr 30 2020 Warm weather will continue this week, though high temperatures will gradually trend cooler through the weekend, reaching near normal levels.
345 AM EDT Fri May 1 2020 Some residual showers can be expected today as low pressure moves to the Mid-Atlantic. High pressure will build across the area and provide generally fair weather Saturday. Low pressure will result in scattered showers today. A period of dry weather begins tonight as high pressure starts to build in.
Quasi-zonal flow sets up today as the upper trough moves to the east coast.
Temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with most areas reaching the mid 80s by mid afternoon. Elsewhere, temperatures will be in the upper 80s, except along the coastal regions where temperatures will be no higher than the low 80s.
A weak cold front will move into the forecast area today.
Therefore, mainly just a wind type forecast as light and variable during the night, then south winds around 10 knots for all terminals by 01/15Z with some gusts over 15 knots for KBPT as the high moves off to the east. /issued 232 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020/ Short Term [Tonight through Saturday] This afternoon's surface analysis shows a 1020 hPa high pressure area centered over the Southern Plains. This high pressure will gradually shift east-southeast and become centered over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, daytime insolation will allow for temperatures to recover to the low to mid 80s each day.
350 AM CDT Fri May 1 2020 Compressed ridging across the Southern Plains will result in hot, potentially record breaking temperatures and a breezy wind today.
Models do show a weak ripple in the northwest/zonal flow aloft, but with the subsidence from the high pressure and the dry air in the mid-levels nothing should come of it.
1118 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020 High pressure will shift across the area tonight, bringing lighter winds and clear skies. Warmer temperatures will overspread the region on Friday as southerly winds begin to develop. Winds have significantly dropped off as the axis of the high pressure edges into the forecast area. Lows should be a few degrees cooler than recent nights thanks to good radiational cooling, in the low to mid 40s. Friday, boundary layer winds turn southeast on the back side of the departing ridge, and ample sunshine at least through midday will allow temperatures to rise back to seasonable levels. A weak warm frontal feature will work east across the area during the afternoon and evening. Saturday, a cold front will be progressing through the area, and 12z models show faster timing, possibly bisecting the CWA by late afternoon.
1057 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020 Warmer air builds into the region tonight, amidst ridging aloft and southerly returns flow. Most CAMs suggest light rain showers or sprinkles cannot be ruled out along and west of the James River Valley late tonight and along and northeast of the Buffalo Ridge in MN on Friday morning.
Limited moisture will this system initially will hold chances of precipitation to slight chance (Friday before 9 AM) until deeper moisture develops as stronger WAA/isentropic lift associated with the 700MB trough begins Friday morning. This is where the higher percentages of measurable precipitation occur.
333 AM CDT Fri May 1 2020 For early May, the overall weather pattern the next several days is quiet with a long wave ridge over the western U.