Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
With a clear sky, high pressure moving in, and diminishing winds (especially west) decided to go ahead and adjust lows down tonight a couple degrees. If we end up even cooler, some patchy frost may be possible across portions of the west.
The latest CAMs show some potential for a few high based showers later on tonight across the Ozarks ahead of an advancing cold front.
Water vapor imagery is showing a short wave trough digging into the Mid Mississippi Valley. The surface cold front associated with this trough is passing through the forecast area at this time, and should be through into far southern Missouri by 12Z or shortly thereafter. However it will still be noticeably cooler on Monday morning. which develops and reinforces a long wave trough stretching across the eastern 1/3 of the continent.
(Today through Monday night) For today, slightly cooler temperatures are in store for the OK and TX Panhandles in the wake of the most recent weak cold frontal passage. Based on the above, have raised surface winds a little over the NBM 90th percentile values across the higher terrain of the western, southwestern, and south central counties closer to the MAVMOS and LAVMOS guidance values. At upper levels, an amplified ridge of high pressure over the Intermountain West coupled with a deepening trof across the eastern states will result in dry northwest flow today through Monday night.
High pressure ridge aloft with high pressure at the surface will bring very mild temperatures with clear skies and light winds. Winds are expected to remain mainly light under this high pressure through Monday.
Temperatures will be a little cooler than yesterday with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
113 AM MDT Sun Sep 25 2022 An upper ridge will move eastward into the Northern Rockies today into Monday. This ridge will bring dry and warm conditions under mostly clear skies.
320 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 An upper level low is spinning over the Great Lakes early this morning. As of 315 AM, a couple of storms have been able to develop over Grayson and Breckinridge/Hardin counties. Likewise, the sfc cold front will cut southeast through the area from mid-morning to early afternoon. Rain chances quickly taper off in the eastern CWA by early afternoon as drier air arrives behind the cold front. High temperatures today should range from the low/mid 70s in southern Indiana to the lower 80s near the TN border. Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 50s tonight with mostly clear skies and cold air advection. Amplified longwave trof over the eastern CONUS will dominate the upper pattern for the first half of the week.
Water vapour loop had upper ridge over western third of the CONUS.
336 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 Weak low pressure moseying across the Upper Great Lakes region early this morning is what's responsible for the ongoing cloudiness and rainyness. Although the low's center will be E of the forecast area by around/shortly after dawn, the next approaching disturbance from Manitoba into Ontario will ensure no clearing of clouds and/or precip chances will occur during this forecast period.
(Today through Monday) A mid to upper level low is evident on water vapor satellite imagery this morning. The airmass over our CWA remains warm and moist with dewpoints from the middle 60s to the lower 70s. The upper low and the surface front will continue to define our weather through the short term period. The upper low is expected to continue to drift toward the west today, and some moisture advection could lead to isolated showers and thunderstorms over the Hill Country and Rio Grande Plains this afternoon. The cold front will reach our northern border early this evening and move through the area overnight. Highs will be in the lower to middle 90s across the CWA.
212 AM MDT Sun Sep 25 2022 Upper level ridging builds into the Northern Rockies through mid- week for dry weather and generally light winds.
Today through Monday An area of high pressure over the Great Basin will continue to strengthen today, with the ridge axis extending well over western portions of Canada. Winds will be light across the CWA today and Monday, due to the close proximity of the high center.
351 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022 Key Message * Cooler and drier conditions will persist through the upcoming week. A cold front has sagged through the area overnight, bringing what will ultimately be a pretty wholesale change to the weather across the area Sunday. This cold front moved across the I-70 corridor around 1 am and via Mosaic radar imagery appears to be approaching the I-44 corridor as of around 3:45 am. This means there should be a noticeable difference in the air mass as the cooler and drier air settles into the area.
847 PM PDT Sat Sep 24 2022 High Pressure, centered over Southern California this evening will move little through Monday, and then weaken as a trough redevelops along the West Coast.
634 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022 Noticably cooler temperatures and breezy northerly winds are anticipated across the local area today as cooler air advects in from the north behind yesterdays cold front. While cooler temperatures are on tap. and drier air in the wake of yesterdays cold front. expect seasonable temps all with with highs mostly in the lower to mid 70s. along with dry conditions as high pressure aloft transitions across the local area with no notable disturbances expected to impact the local area.
711 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected today with a passing cold front. Additional showers are possible through mid week under persistent upper troughing, resulting in seasonably cool temperature. These features plus an impinging jet will support rounds of showers and thunderstorms before the cold front passage and dry slot limit activity during the late afternoon hours.
High pressure ridging builds overhead today through the middle of this week.
An area of high pressure continues to build overhead, allowing for the retreat of moisture from the Desert Southwest. Regardless, HeatRisk remains "Low" in most population centers, with typical areas including Death Valley National Park and the lower Colorado River Valley experiencing "Moderate" HeatRisk values.
548 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022 Key Message * Cooler and drier conditions will persist through the upcoming week. A cold front has sagged through the area overnight, bringing what will ultimately be a pretty wholesale change to the weather across the area Sunday. This cold front moved across the I-70 corridor around 1 am and via Mosaic radar imagery appears to be approaching the I-44 corridor as of around 3:45 am. This means there should be a noticeable difference in the air mass as the cooler and drier air settles into the area.
A cold front extending from an area of low pressure over the Great Lakes, to NW Illinois and SE Kansas will move across this area during the afternoon. High temperatures otherwise should warm into the low/mid 80s.
Upper level ridging builds into the Northern Rockies through mid- week for dry weather and generally light winds.
751 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 A cold front, with limited moisture, will move through tonight, with fair weather expected behind it for early to mid week. Upper trough moves through the Great Lakes pushing high pressure off to our east. A bit warmer in terms of high temperatures today ahead of an approaching cold front with values reaching the mid and upper 80s. Upper trough to remain over the E CONUS Mon/Tue.
The highest coverage of daytime rain and isolated storms will be near and south of Orlando/the Space Coast.
508 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase today with the approach and passage of a cold front.
522 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022 (Today) A few showers have popped up across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas early this morning in a zone of isentropic lift in advance of a cold front that currently extends from central Missouri into southern Kansas. The potential for isolated showers will persist into mid-morning as the cold front advances into the area. The cold front is forecast to make quick progress across the area today and is expected to be near the Red River by early afternoon.
The front has made it to I-40 with temperatures running 5-6 degrees cooler than this time yesterday across portions of northeast OK. Expect another unseasonably warm day especially across southeast Oklahoma with the cooler air lagging behind the front.
Surface cold front continues to quickly slide south through the plains early this morning, with stronger northerly winds gusting to 20 to 25 mph post FROPA. Winds/Gusts do diminish through the morning hours, as this cooler air provides lower temps today across southern Colorado. High temps today are still expected to be in the 70s across the lower elevations. No real big change in thinking for later today, specifically this afternoon with possible isolated shower and thunderstorm development across the higher terrain.
312 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Storm development is starting out west this afternoon along a cold front as large scale lift and cooling from an upper level low pressure trough was approaching from the west. Therefore, expect this to all move east with cooler and drier high pressure following in behind tonight into Sunday.
1151 AM MDT Sat Aug 17 2019 An upper low is spinning over Saskatchewan, and upper flow is nearly zonal over the northern plains. At the surface, the cold front is approaching from the northwest. The cold front will cross the CWA today. Besides cooler temperatures and breezy northwest winds, showers and thunderstorms will follow the front. Highs today will range from the 60s across the northwestern CWA to the lower 80s across south central SD.
High pressure will keep control over the area through Sunday, keeping the storm path divided with a northern branch over the Ohio Valley and a southern branch along the Carolina coast. Mountain convection could cross our state line as moisture increases on the NC side, and isolated convection could fire up into the higher terrain of SW VA. Meanwhile, the heat will increase a degree or two as temps will be in the low to mid 90s in the Valley, with heat indices from the mid to upper 90s. At the beginning of this period, Sunday evening, we will be in between a few weather features, with an upper ridge along the Gulf Coast and a predominant zonal flow to our north, leaving us on the north edge of the ridge.
Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across western Missouri and Kansas early this morning in an area of strong 925- 850mb moisture convergence just north of a surface warm front. Thunderstorms will move east and diminish by mid morning as the low level jet weakens and continues to veer to the east. There will be sufficient instability/ moisture transport ahead of the attendant cold front to go with likely PoPs over central and northeast Missouri as well as west central Illinois with chance PoPs elsewhere.
Behind the cold front, clearing skies and decreasing winds will allow temperatures to rapidly fall.
Expect highs in the mid 90s with dewpoints in the lower 70s across the Delta.
Highs tomorrow will top out in the low and mid 90s.
Most locations will see temperatures in the low 60s with a few isolated instances of lows in the upper 50s. Seasonal temperatures A stubborn subtropical ridge will remain parked over West Central Texas for a good portion in the long range forecast.
A secondary weak cold front is progged to drop south across Kansas and position roughly along the turnpike corridor by late afternoon.
Storm initiation is underway across the High Plains with the models moving the storms into southwest Nebraska after 21z this afternoon. The aforementioned cold front will cross the region overnight leading to drier and cooler conditions for Sunday.
Temperatures in valleys nestled along the immediate spine of the Divide could very likely wake up to temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s (ie: Polebridge, Seeley Lake, Ovando, Butte, Wisdom, etc).
Clear skies and daytime heating will help increase instability across the region today ahead of an upper trough and sfc cold front. Tried to keep the highest pops with fropa for now. This may well be on the high side, but suffice to say that instability will be sufficient to support storms with no capping expected.
Maliawco Previous Discussion: Main forecast challenge revolves around the current and ongoing rain showers accompanying the recent cold front which moved through the region last night. By early Sunday morning, the pronounced upper-level trough responsible for the cold front this weekend, will have moved east of our region, and will be replaced by a warm westerly to north- westerly flow aloft, along with persistently drier conditions for most of the remainder of the forecast. As the broad high pressure ridge builds northward over those next several days, it seems that models are showing some days will be noticeably hotter here in northeast Montana than others.
A closed 500mb low was centered over central Saskatchewan Canada with an upper trough extending across Montana into Idaho. the upper trough will advance eastward today and tonight. Further north, across north central Nebraska, the upper trough across the Northern Plains will help to initiate thunderstorms ahead of an advancing cold front. after fog and stratus burn off late morning, highs today to range in the low to mid 80s. A cold front will move through tonight, turning winds northerly 10 to 15 mph. It will be cooler with highs from the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Southerly to southwesterly onshore flow will dominate through through the next 7 days as surface 1018 MB high pressure sits over the northeastern and northcentral Gulf.
although some of the high resolution guidance does suggest the possibility of some late night convection moving ashore over lower Acadiana although held off on any precip mention at KLFT/KARA til after sunrise. A ridge of high pressure extending across the Gulf of Mexico will maintain a light and occasional moderate onshore flow through the weekend and well into the new week.
A weak high pressure ridge over the far southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon will slowly lift northward into Central Florida by late Sunday.
243 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 (Tonight and Sunday) Very hot temperatures will persist across West Central Texas through Sunday as the upper ridge remains centered over the region.
A 500 mb high will strengthen somewhat over the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley, keeping the cold front at bay. These models indicate the system will be decaying, and they dissipate the convection as it reaches the lower Ohio Valley in the afternoon.
This lift has already begun to aid in thunderstorm development over the higher terrain of central NM.
Have the highest confidence of storms across the I70 corridor. Some of the guidance is cooler than what I have currently adjusted the temps. Ahead of the front, there will be downslope warming, so highs just south of the bounary will likely warm into the low 100s. With the cooler solution, will not hoist an advisory at this point in time since confidence of a warmer solution is lower.
Subtropical Ridge axis remains over our area this weekend with little change in strength.
242 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019 VFR expected to prevail as high pressure keeps weather systems well to our north over the Ohio Valley and also to the southeast along the Carolina coast.
Temperatures will climb starting tomorrow as well with a ridge of high pressure building into the region. Energetic dry west to northwest flow remains in place across the region as a midlevel trough sweeps eastward through Montana.
Fluctuations in the placement of high pressure in the Gulf will potentially lead to some variability in the winds by mid week, but light to moderate southerly flow reestablishes itself by the latter half of the week.
Midlevel ridge situated across Texas will continue hot conditions through the weekend. Moisture in the lower levels will continue humid conditions at the surface, as well as slight chances for showers to develop mainly across the gulf waters during the overnight and early morning periods. Small Craft Exercise Headlines will remain in place for portions of the bays and gulf waters, especially for areas south of Port Aransas, as moderate onshore flow develops this afternoon due to the thermal gradient and then overnight from mixing with the low level jet.
Thanks to the high heights and thicknesses, mid-level atmospheric temperatures are too warm for decent instability without a significant intrusion of moisture which isn't in the cards. It will continue to be a good deal warmer than average (Tucson's average high is 97 now) but not to the extent of several days ago.
Otherwise, as the low level jet strengthens over Kansas tonight, convection will likely re-fire and push east-southeast towards central Missouri by morning.
NBM and European guidance are almost on the extreme end of the envelope, bringing high temperatures to almost 100 degrees with dewpoints in the lower 60s for many areas.
Elevated heat indices remain the short-term concern with most areas seeing values approaching the lower end of Heat Advisory conditions.
With temps again climbing in the low/mid 90s, isolated storms will be back in the fold, especially Wed and Thu when vertical motion/moisture a bit more favorable. Lesser pcpn chance again return to round out the workweek and into the first part of the weekend as upper ridge builds back in.
1049 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019 An area of low pressure will move northeast of the area overnight. Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough will then prevail through much of the week. Highs will range from the low/mid 90s inland to mid/upper 80s at the immediate coast. Lows will mainly be in the low to mid 70s. High pressure will linger to the east with low pressure inland. We generally expect a fairly typical summertime pattern with mainly afternoon/evening scattered showers and thunderstorms, although the some showers and storms could persist overnight depending on the placement/strength of the upper level low. An approaching cold front late in the week could lead to better rain chances but confidence is low in any significant impacts at this point.
After a coolish start to the morning on Sunday, it should warm up nicely by the afternoon albeit slightly cooler than seasonal normals. Look for upper ridging to build into the region and amplify into adjacent southern Canada late this weekend into the second half of the week. Look for large scale subsidence associated with the ridge to lead to dry conditions during this period as well as temperatures returning to near or above normal readings. Ensemble 500mb heights show that a breakdown of the ridge is likely to occur for the area toward the second half of the week.
The area will remain situated in the weak upper trough between the ridge over the Plains and western Atlantic ridge. By the end of the week, the potential remains for the longwave trough over the Great Lakes to push a cold front southward toward north Georgia.
1039 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Currently - A pressure ridge extending westward across South Florida is producing light east to southeast breezes across the Keys. Short Term Update - The ridge will lift a bit further northward overnight, maintaining light east to southeast breezes across Keys. Expect overnight lows to struggle to get into the lower 80s with dew points lingering in the mid 70s. Ridging across the lower Florida Peninsula will maintain light east to southeast breezes across Keys waters overnight.
The low level jet is expected to crank up this evening, bringing an increase in mid and high clouds to the region. Things do get a little more interesting Sunday afternoon as a cold front moves across the region. If we could break out tomorrow afternoon from the low clouds, bufkit soundings indicated one to two thousand J/KG of CAPE, 0-6 km shear values around 30 knots, and total totals around 50. Leaned toward the warmer MET guidance for highs on Sunday. Sunday Night Through Saturday A relatively progressive upper level pattern over North America will start the work week, but transition to amplified ridging over the western U.
754 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019 An area of low pressure will lift northeast of the area tonight. Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough will then prevail through much of the week. Highs will range from the low/mid 90s inland to mid/upper 80s at the immediate coast. Lows will mainly be in the low to mid 70s. High pressure will linger to the east with low pressure inland. We generally expect a fairly typical summertime pattern with mainly afternoon/evening scattered showers and thunderstorms, although the some showers and storms could persist overnight depending on the placement/strength of the upper level low. An approaching cold front late in the week could lead to better rain chances but confidence is low in any significant impacts at this point.
This will also nudge the trough over the northeast Gulf and north Florida a bit further north. however scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop across west central Florida on Sunday with the highest pops over the northern nature coast.
Winds will be light as high pressure will be centered over the NC mountains tomorrow.
411 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2019 A line of showers and a few thunderstorms will continue moving east over the high plateaus of northwest CO this evening. Flow aloft will gradually shift to the southwest and high pressure will become positions over west TX which should allow moisture to start rotating north into the area again at the end of the week.
629 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Storm development is starting out west this afternoon along a cold front as large scale lift and cooling from an upper level low pressure trough was approaching from the west. Therefore, expect this to all move east with cooler and drier high pressure following in behind tonight into Sunday.
The weather system that brought much cooler temperatures to the region today and precipitation to northern portions of central and north-central Montana will exit the region for clearing skies this evening. Much warmer and drier conditions develop Sunday and persists through much of the upcoming week as a high pressure ridge gets re-established across the western United States. Upper level ridging builds into the Northern Rockies and MT Sunday for a quick rebound in temperatures with most locations returning to seasonally warm conditions by Sunday afternoon.
Also decreased low temperatures by a few degrees, closer to the lower end of model consensus. Behind the cold front, clearing skies and decreasing winds will allow temperatures to rapidly fall.
Cooler temperatures are expected across the interior this weekend, followed by a gradual warmup the second half of the upcoming week. Cooler inland temperatures have been observed early this afternoon and are expected to persist through the weekend. Deterministic and ensemble guidance show an upper-level trough starting to enter the Northeast Pacific late tomorrow and slowly moving toward British Columbia through the middle of the upcoming week. High pressure is then forecast to spread toward the area from the southwest, likely leading to another warmup across the interior during the latter part of the week.
Upper pattern bringing somewhat of a quasi upper level ridging pattern over mid state area thru at least the mid portion of next work week. Overnight low temps tonight will be a few degrees above seasonal normal values with lows tonight in the lower 70s, mid to upper 60s Cumberland Plateau Region. The potential of sct shwrs/tstms will continue Thu night thru Sat as upper ridge influences try to build back in/but not totally.
Temperatures will quickly rebound for the start of the week as high pressure rebuilds over the region.
Aloft, the main upper level short wave/trof seen in moisture channel data now into MT to western WY and this will continue its eastward movement tonight.
High pressure aloft will expand north from the southern Rockies beginning on Sunday. This high pressure will bring hot temperatures and dry conditions to the area through midweek. A ridge centered over the southern Rockies/southern Plains will amplify over the next few days.