Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1128 AM CST Sat Jan 6 2018 The main focus of this forecast continues to be the potential for wintry weather on Sunday, and particularly the potential for light icing from freezing rain. The NAM continues to be an outlier, showing a slow warm up to just above freezing through much of the forecast area. A secondary concern is that given how cold we've been for nearly 3 weeks, that ground temperatures will lag the air temperature and still be able to accumulate ice with air temperatures above freezing. But given a cold start, with warm advection precipitation overrunning the shallower cold air, the potential for freezing rain looks very real. And icing on the order of several hundredths to as much as a tenth of an inch looks possible before air/ground temperatures rise above freezing.
MVFR ceilings will begin to develop across east Texas between 06 and 12z, ahead of a trough of low pressure, before spreading north and east tomorrow morning.
Light freezing rain will be possible at KHRO as the period concludes with precipitation becoming much more widespread after the TAF period.
Sfc flow will veer and increase over the next 24 hours in response to leeside troughing on the Front Range. High clouds will be on the increase, and sfc flow will become gusty near the end of the forecast period as the next cold front approaches.
Ahead of the upper trough the weak ridge over the west will help to retain warm temperatures aloft with dense cirrus streaming over the top of the ridge into the Nebraska Panhandle on 120kt+ upper jet. Lows will bottom out in the low 20s.
321 PM CST Sat Jan 6 2018 A far milder night ahead with temperatures staying well above freezing for the first time in about a week. Sunday, the onshore flow will become much deeper fetched from the lower Gulf and Caribbean Sea and will onset advective sea fog possibly as early at 3 pm Sunday afternoon along and near the LA coast, that eventually spreads inland and eastward across the MS Sound by sunset Sunday.
1039 AM MST Sat Jan 6 2018 A cooler airmass remains over the eastern sections of the forecast area today with lower clouds and patchy fog this morning. The upper trough moving through the Intermountain Region today will move across the forecast area Sunday morning.
219 PM EST Sat Jan 6 2018 A pressure ridge will extend along the East Coast through Sunday.
Due to the shallow cold air and frozen ground currently present, expect a period of freezing drizzle along the I-70 corridor Sunday morning.
1234 PM EST Sat Jan 6 2018 A pressure ridge will extend along the East Coast through Sunday.
Radar continues to demonstrate the trough moving through the area, with continued light rain in the western Magic Valley, and into the Treasure Valley as well. Continue to expect the trough axis will generally be east of the area by the late afternoon, with building northwest flow. Precipitation type will be rain or snow as lower valleys/basins will remain above freezing today. Sunday is dry but with increasing clouds as an upper ridge rebuilds over the Pacific NW.
Still, there is a window especially Sunday night before the cold front arrives where some combination of sea/advection/radiation fog could thicken near the coast. with ceiling still in the low VFR range. Texas A&M buoy 42044 (about 8 miles east of South Padre) held SST in the mid to upper 50s, while buoy 42045 (about 40 miles east of South Padre) was still in the lower 70s. Return warm advection flow over these cooler waters will reduce winds some 15+ knots (20 knots in gusts) compared with locations such as Harlingen and Brownsville, and 5 to 10 knots compared with the warmer waters generally beyond 20 nautical miles (estimated).
336 PM EST Sat Jan 6 2018 The latest surface analysis shows an area of high pressure centered to out northwest across central illinois. This area of high pressure will continue to move east across the Ohio Valley tonight. GIven the similar setup This high pressure will slide east and eventually setup across the Virginia and North Carolina coast line Sunday afternoon. This will allow a little more advection of relatively warmer air into the area. The temperatures will still remain below normal with high temperatures topping out in the low to mid 30s for most locations. Then we switch to a mix of rain, snow, sleet and freezing rain throughout the morning and early afternoon from west to east.
246 PM CST Sat Jan 6 2018 The potential for freezing rain on Sunday remains likely, with the primary impact being in the form of slick roadways and walkways Sunday morning to afternoon. Deepening warm advection should transition freezing rain to liquid rain by the late morning to early afternoon across eastern Kansas and western Missouri, though freezing rain will continue over central to northeastern Missouri through the early to mid- afternoon. While there is confidence in the potential for freezing rain and slick roadways Sunday morning and afternoon, precise timing for the transition to liquid rain remains somewhat uncertain.
The leading edge of a much anticipated warmer air mass was beginning to move across North and South Dakota early this morning. However, over Minnesota, and western Wisconsin, arctic high pressure is still in control for one more day. As the warmer air mass spreads eastward tonight, temperatures may actually begin to rise and by morning a few 20s and teens will be common across southern and central Minnesota. The onset of warmer temperatures could also develop a band of light snow, especially in central and east central Minnesota later tonight. The frigid eastern trough lifting out of the country will allow mild Pacific air to flow eastward.
Scattered thunderstorms were developing from southwest into central WI, in an area of increasing moisture convergence just ahead of a cold front, where SBCAPE was 2000-2500 j/kg, and the cap was eroding. Convection should taper off across our southeast counties late tonight, as the cold front exits the region. High pressure will build into our northwest counties, setting the stage for widespread fog development over north central and far northeast WI late tonight into early Thursday. Will have a wide range of temperatures overnight, with lows from the middle to upper 40s northwest to the lower to middle 60s southeast. The cold front will shift back north as a warm front, and should approach central WI later in the afternoon. , and feature a deep trough over the west, and expansive ridging over the east.
in response to western troughing, save for coastal New England where Jose will continue to linger.
213 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will bring warm weather to Pennsylvania through the weekend. Ridge holding strong again Thursday and Thursday night.
Lows tonight will fall into the low 70s inland to mid 70s along the coast. This will result in the highest rain chances (scattered) near the coast with isolated coverage inland.
A 850mb thermal ridge has slowly shift east into our area. With dewpoints in the low 60s we can expect index values to climb between 101-103 which will be just below heat advisory levels. A 500mb ridge will suppress the convection from becoming too widespread and keep it confined to just a small area. A deep upper level trough will begin to move out of California and into the four corners region allowing for the weak ridge to begin to erode. With this erosion of the ridge and increasing divergence aloft, shower and thunderstorm activity could be more widespread tomorrow afternoon and evening. Temperatures on Thursday will be a little "cooler" than what we have seen the past couple of days.
By late Thursday afternoon, the low will be centered over Colorado with a boundary extending northeastward to eastern North Dakota. Conditions will remain dry during this time period, with southerly flow bringing warmer air up into the region. Positive tilt western conus mid level trof will come out in pieces through the period.
Temps behind the front are a few degrees cooler, and dewpoints are only in the 50s, while ahead of the boundary across eastern counties we have dewpoints in the low 70s and temperatures in the 80s. Moisture in the boundary layer and good mixing has led to a layer of thin cumulus at the top of the mixed layer, which may help keep highs a degree or two cooler for today. Despite breezy conditions and drying grasses, the higher RH should help buffer fire danger. Slow moving upper trough meanders around the western CONUS with the upper ridge in control across our area, being blocked by the two tropical systems off the Atlantic.
230 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017 Monitoring the cold front as it shifts east this afternoon and evening. The cold front will only make it south to about Interstate 80 tonight before the model consensus beings it north again as a warm front as ridge builds. The low-level moisture transport convergence continues to migrate north through the evening Thursday, into nrn WI and nrn MN.
214 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 High pressure both at the surface and aloft will build overhead through the weekend. Upper-level ridge axis remains overhead this afternoon while an upper-level disturbance approaches from the west. High pressure both at the surface and aloft will build over the region as the upper-level disturbance shifts to the south tonight. to the lower and middle 60s across most other locations.
An upper level low over SW VA today will track SE across NC tonight and be near the Outer Banks by tomorrow.
257 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 A weak upper level trough will move into central NC later today, then drift sewd through Thursday. Otherwise, an upper level high over the Ohio Valley and Tropical Cyclone Jose meandering off the southern New England coast will result in warm and dry conditions across central NC through the rest of the week.
There is a weak cold front coming into the area tonight that may bring some thunderstorms to areas west of Holland to Big Raipds early Thursday morning.
There is a weak cold front coming into the area tonight that may bring some thunderstorms to areas west of Holland to Big Rapids early Thursday morning.
Temps are around 90 with dewpoints in the lower 70s and heat index values around 100. Another warm night is on tap with lows mainly in the lower 70s.
High pressure at the surface and aloft continues over central NY and northeast PA. The high clouds remain in the Catskills and Poconos this afternoon and evening. This is only keeping it a tad cooler this afternoon. Lows also above normal and in the upper 50s and lower 60s tonight and a little cooler Thursday night in the mid and upper 50s. very little change in the forecast or grids as we continue under the warm and dry ridge.
115 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017 A cold front has moved through the forecast area overnight. The winds will turn from the north to the east or southeast as the high moves through.
146 PM MDT Wed Sep 20 2017 19z surface analysis had cold front from MN to KS with high pressure over the central plains behind it. Developing lee trough over the Rockies combined with high producing gusty west/southwest winds over much of the CWA this afternoon. Moisture looks scant, so mid/high clouds will be main effect along with the usual Black Hills/foothills downslope warming and gusty winds over the higher terrain of the Black Hills and over the southern SD plains. Dry boundary layer will preclude pops, although a few showers may develop off the Big Horns late and approach the CWA as a cold front starts to sink southeast toward CWA.
Additional showers are expected with an upper level low moving over southeastern WA today. The colder air aloft from the low and dynamic lift from the jet max may trigger a few thunderstorms this afternoon. An upper level trough will continue to send mostly cloudy skies and unsettled weather across the area for the next 24 hours.
404 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will bring warm weather to Pennsylvania through the weekend. Ridge holding strong again Thursday and Thursday night.
However the models are in complete agreement on keeping a ridge of high pressure centered over our region through the short term. The combination of high pressure and a warm moist southerly flow will result in temperatures around 10 degrees above normal for both highs and lows.
Convective temperatures on the RAP are in the 90s across IA, which looks to delay any initial convective development near the cold front until late this afternoon. While west/northwest IL is favored at this time, the low level jet will ramp back up in this high PWAT environment, which could lead to an uptick in showers and storms late this evening/early overnight hours. The lower level airmass will be on par with today's if not a bit warmer, and thus many areas will likely tag 90 or even the lower 90s.
237 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017 A cold front west of the area is still forecast to move toward the area into northwest IL this evening. And with hurricanes Jose and Maria sitting out east in the Atlantic, the trough in the west will remain out there as well.
The remains of the cold front are just about out of the area now. The long wave upper trough is over the Pacific Northwest. A significant embedded short wave will rotate around the bottom of the trough tonight.
However, confidence in the rainfall in the evening and overnight is not that high as unsure on the timing of the trough (may be too far east to help and could actually be on the unfavorable side by then).
546 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will bring warm weather to Pennsylvania through the weekend. Ridge holding strong again Thursday and Thursday night.
144 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 Aviation Ridging will maintain VFR conditions and dry weather through the afternoon and early evening. Low pressure tracking through central Canada will drive a frontal boundary through the area tonight and Thursday. This will increase moisture over west Michigan, but the front will weaken as it encounters the ridge over the area, keeping chances for precipitation very low tonight. A weak area of high pressure will track through the region today providing the area with mainly dry conditions after a foggy start. Tonight a cold front will be weakening as it tracks in from the northwest. Tonight the cold front that featured an active line of storms yesterday in the Upper Plains. The low level thermal ridge folds in as well.
High pressure at the surface and aloft continues over central NY and northeast PA. The high clouds remain in the Catskills and Poconos this afternoon and evening. This is only keeping it a tad cooler this afternoon. Lows also above normal and in the upper 50s and lower 60s tonight and a little cooler Thursday night in the mid and upper 50s.
344 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain parked over the region through the next several days, providing dry conditions and above normal temperatures.
850 LLJ is also proggd to remain to our west, so forcing looks again to be in the lower levels. 925 temps bounce back into the low or mid 20s celsius so toasty temps and high dew points expected once again.
122 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 A weak upper level low will fill and slide SE as high pressure builds over the area tonight. The high pressure will remain anchored over the area through the weekend. Weak upper low will kick off a few showers/tsra this afternoon away from the lake. The weak upper level low will fill and slide SE tonight as upper ridge begins to build in. Expect more sun tomorrow with temps into the lower to mid 80s as upper level ridge builds in. Summer-like conditions will be in place to end the week as the ridge strengthens aloft, extending well north of the Great Lakes.
Another round of low ceilings and/or fog is likely overnight tonight and into tomorrow morning, with the highest chances generally north of KIAH. The high resolution models do indicate a potential for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The pattern aloft is still expected to develop into an upper trough across LA into SE Texas with an upstream high pressure ridge over N Texas into the Hill Country.
Low pressure and cold front remains on track with rain and snow passing across much of northeast Nevada tonight and Thursday.
A northeast-southwest oriented cold front is creeping eastward across IA and northwest MO this afternoon. While the cold front/boundary will never make it into the CWA, it will lift northward and a broad warm sector marked by moist and very warm temps will exist. This along with the strengthening ridge aloft will support a continuation of high temps in the low- mid 90s with heat indices averaging near 100 degrees on Thursday afternoon. Glass The unseasonably hot and humid conditions will continue into the upcoming weekend as the upper level ridge holds its position across Missouri and Illinois. Afternoon high temperatures in the lower to middle 90s will combine with dewpoints in the 60s/70s to produce afternoon and early evening heat index values around 100 degrees.
305 PM MDT Wed Sep 20 2017 Southwest flow aloft around an upper level trough over the western part of the country will continue over Colorado tonight and Thursday. Airmass will continue to be dry with only a few clouds over the higher terrain. A deep upper level trough of low pressure covers the western half of the United States Thursday night with an area of low pressure centered over southwestern Idaho. Colorado is on the leading edge of the trough.
Models have slowed the approaching cold front associated with a low pressure system over Manitoba. This cold front will renew chances of rain and thunderstorms over the forecast area late tonight and through tomorrow afternoon. Some of the high-res models have shown the precipitation doing the classic "fizzling out" as it moves over northern lower while eastern upper gets some rain.
346 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017 The large scale pattern tonight and Thursday shows a positively tilted flow, with upper riding extending from Texas northeastward into the eastern Great Lakes, and an upper trough moving into California and the Alberta/Saskatchewan border. As high pressure shifts off to the east and shifts our low level winds around to an easterly and southeasterly direction, the models develop the stratus near 900mb and usher that moisture first into Sioux City toward day break Thursday, then expand it north to northwestward deeper into our forecast area. The low level jet becomes quite strong on Thursday coupled with a tightening surface pressure gradient. Therefore south to southeast winds will become quite brisk helping to mix the lower atmosphere through about 1 km, where winds of 35 knots reside.
A ridge of upper high pressure could contribute to some fog development again overnight, but will also keep dry weather and above normal temperatures across the area through the weekend. An isolated shower isn't out of the question, but with upper ridging over the area anything that would develop would be very isolated and short-lived. High pressure will continue over the forecast area tonight and some low level moisture will remain in place with clearing skies and light winds. RAP shows soundings saturate at the low levels and develop a decent inversion starting around 9z. Ridge of high pressure aloft will keep warm and dry conditions in place over central Indiana.
/issued 924 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017/ Taking a look at the latest model guidance and radar trends this morning, opted to raise POP's across much of the area as a weak upper level trough is progged to move across the northern gulf coast. /issued 314 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017/ Wx map shows weak high pressure over the Southeast U. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms is expected with a weak upper level trough approaching from the west interacting with the seabreeze this afternoon.
A small upper level low pressure system over Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas had a short wave trough of low pressure that extended Southwest across East and Northeast Texas and to the middle and upper Texas Coast. Earlier a few showers had developed near and ahead of the base of the trough across parts of Southeast Texas just South of Toledo Bend Lake and the East Texas Lakes Area, but those have weakened. With afternoon heating and available moisture there could be additional development of convection during the remainder of the day for areas to the East of this upper low and trough with higher chances from the coast across Northwest and North Central Louisiana and South Central Arkansas. Daytime temperatures should warm into the low to mid 90s.
/Tonight through Thursday/ As of 20z a cold front was slowly sagging east through the CWA, evident on radar and surface obs stretching northeast from near Creston, through the DSM metro, to just west of Waterloo. The cold front stalls out over our southeastern zones tonight. The boundary retreats northward as a warm front tomorrow morning in response to mid-level height falls over the high Plains. A hot and humid afternoon is expected with heat indicies in the low to mid 90s. The deepening western will lead to an large upper ridge across the eastern United States.
Overnight lows will remain in the low 70s under mostly cloudy skies.
303 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 A weak upper level trough will move into central NC later today, then drift sewd through Thursday. Otherwise, an upper level high over the Ohio Valley and Tropical Cyclone Jose meandering off the southern New England coast will result in warm and dry conditions across central NC through the rest of the week. A vorticity disturbance will drift slowly eastward across eastern NC on Thursday, and will eventually feed into the broad upper trough extending SW from TC Jose off of the southern New England Coast. H8 temps and low-level thickness drop off ever so slightly, so perhaps a degree or two cooler when compared to today, but still in the same ballpark with afternoon highs in the 85-90 degree range.
253 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 Warm temperatures and dry conditions will persist through the remainder of the week and the coming weekend, as high pressure will remain in place across the region.
/17/ The period will start out with a highly amplified pattern over the CONUS as a deep longwave trough digs across the western portion of the US. This will in turn amplify downstream ridging over the mid- Mississippi River Valley and Midwest. This ridging will keep the warmest temperatures in place through the weekend with highs in the low 90s before an upper low retrogrades beneath the ridge and into the ArkLaMiss by the start of next work week. These lower heights will help keep temperatures a few degrees cooler with highs topping out in the upper 80s through the middle of the week.
However, we do expect southerly winds to increase throughout the morning and early afternoon hours on Thursday with wind gusts of 25-30 mph at times by Thursday afternoon as an area of low pressure deepens across the high plains. A significant upper trough will dig deeply across the western CONUS all the way south to the baja of Mexico. This is one of the most significant troughs we've seen dig across the western United States since spring and will allow for good northward moisture transport across the plains along with cooler temperatures aloft and strong dynamics to generate a rather persist area of showers and thunderstorms along and north of an associated sfc cool front.
We could see a few storms try and develop over eastern Kansas late tonight but even those chances will be on the lower end.
Will have some fog with at least IFR vis at all sites toward sunrise, with TRI expected to have the lowest conditions, possibly LIFR.
405 PM MDT Wed Sep 20 2017 The strong and broad Pacific trough continues to dominate much of the western CONUS today with the tight wind gradient persisting aloft under a +110kt upper level jet. The forecast remains on track over the next several days as the Pacific trough is expected to elongate and dig further south.