Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Main short-term forecast challenge will be timing of potential PoPs later today/tonight as an upper low currently over the Desert Southwest begins to make its way slowly eastward. The coolest readings in the lower to middle 80s will be found across the far W/SW where clouds will increase soonest. Low temperatures will drop into the lower to middle 60s.
/Issued 730 AM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021/ The strong upper ridge over the southeast will weaken and become less amplified through Saturday. Moisture return into the lower MS Valley will gradually increase over the forecast area. In addition the low level easterly flow will support some Atlantic moisture return.
733 AM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021 Dry weather will continue under high pressure through Saturday.
(Today through Saturday afternoon) An upper level low/trough is centered over the Arizona and New Mexico border. This low will begin to lift northeastward today. Upper lift is enhanced over the area due to the upper low/trough and dewpoints are in the 50s and 60s. The upper trough will continue moving northeastward on Saturday.
627 AM CDT Fri Oct 1 2021 A messy upper level flow pattern is developing early this morning as the 500mb ridge breaks down, with split flow developing upstream over western CONUS. Leaned toward the high end of guidance due to temps consistently overachieving the last few days. A trailing cold front will then slowly move eastward through the area during the day. Rain chances then focus more over our south/east over the latter half of the weekend as an upper low shears out and skirts across eastern Iowa and southern Wisconsin.
After a wet period the last couple of days, today looks significantly drier as upper level support lifts away from the area and the pattern becomes dominated by upper level ridging. Highs will be warmer today without the persistent cloudiness and precipitation, rising into the upper 80s F to near 90 F. /86/ The weekend begins with upper ridging being in place across the Southeast United States, with an upper trough across the Central Plains. Through the weekend, the upper ridge will slide further east and the upper trough will move across our region. The upper trough will slowly move over our region but models continue to indicate that it won't depart as normal.
Overnight, the aforementioned vorticity will push into the forecast area as the low level jet begins to edge into the western portion of the forecast area. The aforementioned theta-e gradient will be edging farther into the area as helped along by the low level jet.
Today through Saturday night Closed upper low over the southwestern states and southern Rockies today will lift east and north later today and this evening and across the far northwestern and northern portions of the Panhandles overnight tonight through Saturday morning. The closed upper low is forecast to track across the central Plains states by late Saturday. After an unseasonably cool Friday, gradually warmer conditions expected Saturday. Scattered to numerous convection, mainly rain showers with possibly a few thunderstorms, will move into the Panhandles from the southern Rockies today as the closed upper low approaches the forecast area.
1052 AM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021 High pressure across the region today will result in one more day of dry and warm weather. The combination of higher RH and better forcing from the trough will aid in the development of scattered showers overnight.
1028 AM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021 High pressure will provide rain-free and seasonably mild weather through Saturday.
548 AM CDT Fri Oct 1 2021 Per current surface analysis, a surface boundary/trough remains situated roughly along the Interstate 29 corridor very early this morning. Much of the rainfall overnight occurred out ahead of this feature where the low/mid level theta e advection was maximized - through northwestern IA and southwestern MN.
There will be a better chance for onshore-moving showers tonight as high pressure to the north builds over the area and increases the onshore flow.
An upper level closed low over the 4-Corners region of the SW will slowly lift NE over the OK/TX Panhandles by tonight. Additional upper waves will lift NE over AR downstream of this upper closed low to the west. this upper closed low will become an open wave.
The highest chance of aviation impacts from convection this afternoon will be across western AR.
1016 AM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021 High pressure will build across through the weekend.
High pressure will build over the Southwest for the weekend, leading to warming temperatures and some clouds.
Our western zones/Missouri valley continue to get rained on early this morning as they remain under the influence of mid-lvl low pressure and/or deformation zone type forcing. Another area of rain is working into southeast SD early this morning in assoc with a decent looking mid- lvl s/w trough coming northward out of NE. This in combination with the aforementioned s/w trough should all lead to increasing chances for pcpn across our eastern zones, especially from the James Valley and points east. The one exception could be our far western zones if they get some sunny breaks this afternoon, readings could pop up into the low 70s. High pressure building in from the northwest could provide more clearing in our west and cooler overnight lows in the low to mid 40s.
715 AM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021 High pressure will provide rain-free and seasonably mild weather through Saturday.
340 AM PDT Fri Oct 1 2021 High pressure building over the region will bring dry and warming conditions through the weekend.
436 AM MDT Fri Oct 1 2021 Visually attractive mid level cyclone is spinning over NW New Mexico this morning. The jet will be reforming on the downstream side of the cyclone this morning and an upstream kicker trough will be pushing this system to the Plains by this evening. Wrap around moisture and the favored area of frontogenesis on the NW side of this low will be rotating into the central and southern divide mountains through the day. Warmer conditions will move in for Saturday which will trigger isolated convection again over the higher terrain with whatever moisture is leftover.
The GFS and NAM push the trough through pretty quickly whereas the Euro and CMC had been a bit slower, but has since trended more towards the GFS, so we should see rain taper off pretty quickly Saturday evening into the night from west to east.
It will be a quiet day as we're on the edge of the lift associated with the low passing south of us. Tomorrow morning should be slightly warmer in most places.
640 AM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021 High pressure will provide dry conditions through Saturday.
632 AM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021 High pressure across the region today will result in one more day of dry and warm weather. High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain in place across the region through this afternoon. The combination of higher RH and better forcing from the trough will aid in the development of scattered showers overnight.
537 AM MDT Fri Oct 1 2021 Visually attractive mid level cyclone is spinning over NW New Mexico this morning. The jet will be reforming on the downstream side of the cyclone this morning and an upstream kicker trough will be pushing this system to the Plains by this evening. Wrap around moisture and the favored area of frontogenesis on the NW side of this low will be rotating into the central and southern divide mountains through the day. Warmer conditions will move in for Saturday which will trigger isolated convection again over the higher terrain with whatever moisture is leftover.
730 AM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021 The strong upper ridge over the southeast will weaken and become less amplified through Saturday. Moisture return into the lower MS Valley will gradually increase over the forecast area. In addition the low level easterly flow will support some Atlantic moisture return.
1028 AM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021 Dry weather will continue under high pressure through Saturday.
/issued 317 AM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021/ For Friday and into the weekend high pressure will remain over the Mid Atlantic States giving us easterly flow.
354 AM MDT Fri Oct 1 2021 It will be a quiet day as we're on the edge of the lift associated with the low passing south of us. Tomorrow morning should be slightly warmer in most places.
224 AM MST Fri Oct 1 2021 High pressure will build over the Southwest for the weekend, leading to warming temperatures and some clouds.
955 AM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021 High pressure will provide dry conditions through Saturday.
Surface flow will continue to slowly shift more southerly vs easterly as the high pressure that was in place weakens and continues to move further to the east. Temperatures will be about the same as yesterday with most areas rising into the low to mid 80s. Conditions don't look favorable for fog during the overnight hours tomorrow as low and mid level clouds advect into the area ahead of the low pressure system, especially as winds creep up as the pressure gradient begins to increase. The aforementioned low pressure system will approach during the daytime hours Saturday with mid and upper level moisture advection strongest during the late morning to early afternoon hours.
Temperatures across the island chain range from 85 to 90 with dewpoints in the lower 70s.
125 PM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021 High pressure will provide dry conditions through Saturday.
328 PM CDT Fri Oct 1 2021 Upper low continues to spin over the Four Corners, and water vapor imagery shows it slowly moving toward the Central Plains. Without a good mechanism for forcing at the surface and the better upper level support still to our southwest, have gone with a dry forecast until the upper low inches into our area. Additionally, forecast soundings only show deep saturation through the profile for short periods of time during the day with CAPE up to 1000 J/kg at most, although this is on the high end with many places at 500 J/kg or less.
305 PM CDT Fri Oct 1 2021 Scattered rain showers will continue across the eastern part of the CWA into this evening before the slow moving system finally begins to exit to the east ahead of approaching high pressure. As the high settles in over the region on Saturday, will see clouds clear and slightly warmer temperatures return. The high will remain through Saturday night, keeping conditions dry.
With increasing low-level moisture and Td's rising into the mid/upper 60's in the southern half of the valley, believe a few showers will pop up by mid afternoon over upslope areas of the eastern mountains, so left slight chance PoPs from the higher elevations of Monroe County into SW NC. VFR will continue to dominate through the period as high pressure remains in control with only high level cirrus. Garuckas Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 84 66 80 66 / 0 10 10 60 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 83 64 81 65 / 0 10 10 60 70 Oak Ridge, TN 62 83 64 80 64 / 0 20 10 60 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 81 58 81 62 / 0 10 10 40 60.
With wet grounds, clearing skies, and falling temps into the low 40s in eastern ND tonight, some fog may be possible.
232 PM MDT Fri Oct 1 2021 Weak cold front will push through the area tonight.
Expecting the dry and sunny weather with light winds to continue through the afternoon, with high temperatures slightly warmer than yesterday.
Upper level ridging over the region gradually collapses today into Saturday as an upper level trough shifts east towards the Great Lakes region. At the surface, high pressure dominating the eastern U. For the rest of today we remain solidly underneath upper level ridging aloft, limiting chances for convection this afternoon and evening to at best isolated coverage.
1215 PM MDT Fri Oct 1 2021 Visually attractive mid level cyclone is spinning over NW New Mexico this morning. The jet will be reforming on the downstream side of the cyclone this morning and an upstream kicker trough will be pushing this system to the Plains by this evening. Wrap around moisture and the favored area of frontogenesis on the NW side of this low will be rotating into the central and southern divide mountains through the day. Warmer conditions will move in for Saturday which will trigger isolated convection again over the higher terrain with whatever moisture is leftover.
Low pressure system continues to spin up moisture over the Panhandles as it approaches from NM. The low will lift to the northeast Saturday evening and give way to a building ridge, which should result in continued warm and dry conditions.
1258 PM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021 Dry weather will continue under high pressure through Saturday.
Weak high pressure from central ND into WY is working slowly eastward, leading to an end of -shra over south central SD as weak upper trough over southeast SD per water vapour slides northeast. Upper low over northern NM spinning cirrus into the rest of the CWA.
(This afternoon through Saturday night) Low clouds, cooler weather, and precipitation chances continue this afternoon and evening. Additional development across the higher terrain of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico is expected later this afternoon as the upper low continues to spin over New Mexico. The upper low ejects across the Central Plains and drier weather makes its return.
Vigorous closed cyclone looked rather impressive on infrared satellite imagery at midday, spinning over New Mexico, with strong forcing for ascent evident over NE New Mexico into the western panhandles. Midlevel cyclone near 576 dm near Clayton, New Mexico at 7 pm this evening, is expected to be in the vicinity of Dodge City at 7 am Saturday. Any thunder will be very limited, but with 500 mb cooling to -15C as the low passes Saturday morning, can't rule out thunder either.
253 PM MDT Fri Oct 1 2021 Upper level water vapor depicts the stream of moisture rotating around the northwestern periphery of the low early this afternoon. This morning's attractive cyclone will lift northeast into the Great Plains this evening, as an upstream trough drives into the Pacific NW. The exiting system will also cutoff the West Slope from its source of Tropical moisture and a transitory ridge slides in its place.
253 PM MDT Fri Oct 1 2021 Issued at 230 PM MDT Fri Oct 1 2021 A pleasant and mild weekend is in store for our CWA as an upper-level ridge begins to push towards our region.
Skies will clear Saturday morning with high pressure over the area with highs similar to today.
To the east, low clouds have been scarce, allowing temperatures across western Wisconsin and eastern Minnesota to climb into the low 80s. PoPs for Saturday have been expanded a bit as the showers spin along the backside of the low through the afternoon. This combined with ample cloud cover will keep highs tomorrow in the low 70s.
311 PM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021 Lower amplitude upper ridging will continue to mark conditions tonight and early Saturday, as the mean ridge axis only slowly exits eastward in response to pending height falls timed to arrive for the back half of the weekend.
An upper level low continues to spin as it moves east across New Mexico. This low will move east-northeast into eastern Kansas by Saturday afternoon.
With an upper low slowly lifting out of the SW. the upper ridge is breaking down somewhat going into this weekend. Tomorrow will be a couple degrees cooler than today as the showers and clouds remain more widespread.
Rain showers will be east of the area by Saturday morning as the upper level low exits the region. The best chance for precipitation will be over the higher terrain south of I-70. Northeast and north central Colorado can expect a typical early autumn weather pattern with dry conditions and slightly warmer than normal temperatures. Models have a weak upper trough over Colorado Saturday night.
/Updated at 1255 PM CDT Fri Oct 01 2021/ High pressure over the eastern coast will keep southeast flow and warm temperatures through the day. high pressure weakens and moves east with instabilities increasing.
Clouds are expected to begin to stream into the area from the southwest as the low advances further to the east. The potential for rainfall looks to increase after 18Z Friday as the low moves east. The one notable aspect of this feature is that guidance indicates a more eastward track of the low before it turns north which would affect how widespread the rainfall will become, based on this I have lowered pops across the area, however likely pops still remain over the southern and eastern counties through Saturday morning. It is worth noting that that the NAMNEST still shows the northward track of the low with a more widespread rain solution. The clearing of clouds will lead to slightly warmer temperatures across the western portions of the CWA as high temperatures will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s.
We're just a bit cooler, and noticeably less humid, compared to Thu, and there is a decent mid-level cloud shield extending from southern Illinois ESE into the Carolinas. As the upper ridge starts a very slow deamplification, thicknesses will be slightly lower this afternoon than yesterday afternoon.
At most some areas will see mid to upper level clouds with this trough with little moisture available.
448 PM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021 Dry and pleasant fall weather continues with high pressure through Saturday. High pressure will continue to provide clear skies and nearly calm flow through Saturday. Any fog will gradually lift into low stratus and then dissipate by 14Z Saturday morning, giving way to another nice, dry day as high pressure and dry air maintain control over the area. Tonight's temperatures will be similar than last nights, generally in the mid 40s northern portions of southeast OH, WV and our northeast mountains, into the low 50s extreme southern WV and southwest VA. Highs on Saturday will reach the lower 80s lowlands, ranging into the mid 60s higher elevations.
(This evening through Saturday) Diffluent upper flow pattern ahead of southern stream closed low will interact with deep moisture to offer fairly widespread precipitation, including some thunder, later tonight. Dry conveyor belt/subsidence working west to east should delineate the western extent of more contiguous precipitation during the morning, with lingering showers or light rain until the mid-upper low passes later in the morning or midday.
This Afternoon and Tonight: GOES Water Vapor imagery continues to show the opening trough over the Southern Rockies as it is ejecting ENE towards the Central Plains with ridging over the eastern CONUS. In the areas that have continued to have overcast conditions, highs may struggle to hit 70, whereas areas that have cleared out have been around 4 degrees warmer.
257 PM CDT Fri Oct 1 2021 An upper level low pressure system rotating across New Mexico will eject across the northern Texas Panhandle tonight into eastern Kansas late Saturday. As a result, as mentioned in the previous forecast, a short wavelength but high amplitude ridge will be the buffer between a developing low over the SE Pacific and the one over the SE CONUS. Highs will climb slightly above normal late in the week as the ridge axis shifts east of us and a somewhat warmer airmass builds in, out ahead of the Pacific low that eventually gets absorbed by the Polar Jet well to our west and north.
The precip should stay west of a Peoria to Effingham line as the lower layers are dry and initial precip will go to moistening up that low layer. The precip is also moving to the north-northwest as the mid level trough moves north-northeast. The higher pops will be in the central and eastern parts of the CWA.
1248 PM CDT Fri Oct 1 2021 A messy upper level flow pattern is developing early this morning as the 500mb ridge breaks down, with split flow developing upstream over western CONUS. Leaned toward the high end of guidance due to temps consistently overachieving the last few days. A trailing cold front will then slowly move eastward through the area during the day. Rain chances then focus more over our south/east over the latter half of the weekend as an upper low shears out and skirts across eastern Iowa and southern Wisconsin.
412 PM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021 High pressure will shift southward along the middle Atlantic states, entering the Carolinas by tonight.
1250 PM CDT Fri Oct 1 2021 Per current surface analysis, a surface boundary/trough remains situated roughly along the Interstate 29 corridor very early this morning. Much of the rainfall overnight occurred out ahead of this feature where the low/mid level theta e advection was maximized - through northwestern IA and southwestern MN.
General convergence as well as advection of warmer air and moisture into Central MO creates a favorable environment for the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms over the course of the afternoon into the evening hours. The high pressure in the SE CONUS that stalled a low pressure system over the four corners region as well as this accompanying boundary is expected to break down through the overnight hours. This enables the low to traverse the region during the day Saturday.
This afternoon, skies were partly cloudy with temps in the low to mid 80s.
246 PM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021 An area of high pressure will bring dry and fairly warm conditions across the Commonwealth for the first half of the weekend.
As previously stated in the Near Term discussion, the broad upper- level ridge that has been persistent over the region for the past couple weeks is finally starting to break down or gets shoved off to the east over the Atlantic.
Mid and high clouds will thicken a bit as the upper ridge flattens out and retreats into the Appalachians giving way to developing return flow. Min temps should run a couple degree warmer compared to this morning. Upper trof will progress eastward from the OK/TX Panhandle into the lower Missouri Valley on Sat, with the moisture feed translating into the Ohio Valley ahead of it.
For the rest of the period, the upper level ridge across the southeast will begin to breakdown as a low begins to develop across the Plains and work its way eastward. In addition, a weak impulse riding around the high over the Atlantic is forecast to move onshore, bringing slight chance pops across the far southeast as well for Saturday afternoon.
A slow moving cold front will move across the Southern Plains on Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will continue Saturday night as the cold front reaches western Arkansas.
213 PM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021 Dry and pleasant fall weather continues with high pressure through Saturday. High pressure will continue to provide clear skies and nearly calm flow through Saturday. Any fog will gradually lift into low stratus and then dissipate by 14Z Saturday morning, giving way to another nice, dry day as high pressure and dry air maintain control over the area. Tonight's temperatures will be similar than last nights, generally in the mid 40s northern portions of southeast OH, WV and our northeast mountains, into the low 50s extreme southern WV and southwest VA. Highs on Saturday will reach the lower 80s lowlands, ranging into the mid 60s higher elevations.
233 PM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021 High pressure across the region today will result in one more day of dry and warm weather. The combination of higher RH and better forcing from the trough will aid in the development of scattered showers overnight.
KHOB and perhaps KMAF will have a slight risk of FG development towards sunrise as hi-res guidance hints at the potential with saturation in the lower boundary layer. (This afternoon through Saturday night) Low clouds, cooler weather, and precipitation chances continue this afternoon and evening. Additional development across the higher terrain of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico is expected later this afternoon as the upper low continues to spin over New Mexico. The upper low ejects across the Central Plains and drier weather makes its return.
Temperatures tomorrow will be similar to today, but if a shower or thunderstorm moves through an area during the afternoon, the rain could cut the high temperature a couple degrees short of the forecast. Seasonal temperatures will return for a couple days behind the cold front.