Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
342 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020 Cool and dry weather is expected today and tonight as high pressure migrates across the Carolinas. Temperatures will begin to warm and humidity will increase by midweek through the end of the week as high pressure settles far off the Southeast United States coast. Above normal temperatures in store for the short term period with a 500mb ridge overhead and southwesterly flow across the area.
Expect these showers to continue to develop through the late afternoon/early evening as an upper level low makes its way slowly north/northwest into the Permian Basin this afternoon. /issued 336 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020/ (Today and Tonight) Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop today as an upper low moves slowly northwest into the Big Bend and Tran Pecos. It will be cooler in the 80s for highs today, with cloudiness and rainfall.
247 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020 High pressure builds into the area from the north tonight.
209 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020 High pressure will continue its track to the southeast U. coast, with return flow setting the stage for warmer and more humid conditions.
In addition, an expanding continental high pressure cell will shift southeastward, resulting in a general increase in gradient flow across southern Florida.
Scattered showers and storms have spread across the western half of the CWA, as the upper low has moved over Texas and is spinning over the Big Bend area. Similar showery afternoon conditions are expected tomorrow with this same moist airmass in place and as the upper low continues its path northeast. Speaking of heat, warming trend continues and tomorrow with high temperatures around 5-7 degrees warmer than today.
234 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020 Breezy southwest winds will bring much warmer and more humid air into central and southeast Illinois on Tuesday.
1212 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020 The trend continues today as upper ridging continues to become more influential. We will see temperatures a couple degrees warmer than yesterday with highs in the low to mid 80s and mostly sunny skies.
High pressure will continue its track to the southeast U. coast, with return flow setting the stage for warmer and more humid conditions.
The deep trough along the Pacific splits into a closed low overnight which will allow the high pressure system to retrograde slightly on Tuesday. With the ridge axis overhead, anticipate weaker winds aloft and a reduction in critical fire weather concerns tomorrow afternoon. However, with a ridge directly overhead.
/issued 301 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020/ (Tonight and Tuesday) Currently, there are scattered showers and thunderstorms across most of West Central Texas as a tropical-like upper level low to our west drifts north into the Permian Basin. 20 (Tuesday Night through Monday) An upper level ridge will build east into our area during the middle to late part of the week, and will be centered over Texas this weekend.
Over the plains, a trough axis was noted from KLAA to Kim so a few isolated storms will be possible this region.
/issued 525 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020/ Despite May coming in cooler than normal across much of the area, the climatological Spring (March through May) finished off warmer than normal, thanks to record warmth in March. Sprinkles and light showers remain over the region this afternoon courtesy of an upper low over Southwest Texas and deep moisture being transported in through the low and mid levels from the gulf. The east flow at the surface is around a ridge across the eastern U. Tuesday the ridge will shift into the Atlantic which will turn the flow more southeast. The upper low over SW TX will move closer to the region.
903 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020 Cool and dry weather is expected today and tonight as high pressure migrates across the Carolinas. Temperatures will begin to warm and humidity will increase by midweek through the end of the week as high pressure settles far off the Southeast United States coast. Above normal temperatures in store for the short term period with a 500mb ridge overhead and southwesterly flow across the area.
Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms late in the week and into the weekend as a weak cold front approaches from the north. Northwest flow aloft with upper ridge from the Mississippi Valley to the southeastern States. Weak short wave trough moving by early with a few high clouds. 850mb ridge over Ga will limit moisture advection into the area although expect slight increase in the afternoon as weak warm advection develops. Temps a couple degrees warmer than today in the mid to upper 80s.
The spaciotemporal overlap of instability and the low-lvl shear environment will be small but some severe impacts could be possible from 3pm into the evening hours of 11pm. The upper pattern does transition from a zonal flow to a more amplified pattern by the weekend as an upper trough moves into the western CONUS.
941 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020 Increasing clouds and warmer tonight with lows around 60.
- Showers and isolated storms tonight A warm front will focus development of showers and a few thunderstorms tonight as elevated instability increases north of the front. - Slight risk for Severe Weather Tuesday Night The cold front will bring convection late Tuesday through the overnight. Overall severe weather threat is slight given unfavorable timing of the cold front passage in terms of surface based instability.
601 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020 High pressure departs eastward Tuesday with an approaching warm front. Dew points will also rise into the low 60s across the lower terrain by Tuesday afternoon. A warm front boundary will be draped a few hundred miles shy of the northern forecast area boundary, keeping shower potential out of our territories through the forecast period.
Locally, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have been favored over the Straits of Florida southwest of the Lower Keys. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s with dewpoints in the mid 70s. A short- wave low level ridge now over the northern Bahamas may pivot through the Keys after 06Z. An expansive high pressure system over the eastern United States will shift southeastward tonight and Tuesday, leading to freshening breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. Meanwhile, a large area of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche will drift slowly northward over the next several days.
638 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020 An upper level ridge of high pressure will remain in control of sensible weather through Tuesday. Subsidence beneath the ridge and a relatively dry lower troposphere will result in no chances for showers and thunderstorms.
621 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020 Breezy southwest winds will bring much warmer and more humid air into central and southeast Illinois on Tuesday.
518 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020 Shower chances return tonight and Tuesday with a warm front.
The Ohio Valley remains under upper ridging that currently covers the CONUS. At the surface, high pressure is centered near Cincinnati. This high will continue to get pushed southeast towards the North Carolina coast.
526 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2020 Upper ridging continues across the Great Plains today, with generally quiet weather across the area. High pressure has been building into the area, bringing slightly cooler air than yesterday. A cold front will push through late tonight into Tuesday morning.
/EC/ Prior discussion below: With mid to upper level ridging overhead, conditions at the surface are quiet and on par for the beginning of June. /10/ Upper ridging slowly breaks down going through midweek.
955 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020 High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic coast will shift offshore, with an elevated low level easterly flow remaining across the area overnight. Lows will fall into the low 70s inland, but continued breezy conditions right along the coast will keep temperatures in the mid to even upper 70s there.
525 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020 Despite May coming in cooler than normal across much of the area, the climatological Spring (March through May) finished off warmer than normal, thanks to record warmth in March. Sprinkles and light showers remain over the region this afternoon courtesy of an upper low over Southwest Texas and deep moisture being transported in through the low and mid levels from the gulf. The east flow at the surface is around a ridge across the eastern U. Tuesday the ridge will shift into the Atlantic which will turn the flow more southeast. The upper low over SW TX will move closer to the region.
The southerly flow will help make for a warmer night, with low temperatures ranging in the low/mid 60s, closer to seasonable levels compared to last night lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. High pressure will continue to settle more into the srn Atlantic coastal areas heading into Tue, as southerly flow develops over much of the region. Weak upper ridge pattern in place over much of the SE region may also limit much in the way of convective development thru Tue, before the ridge axis begins to weaken on Wed.
/issued 157 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020/ An upper low over the area today is a weakness in the upper ridge that extends northward across the center of the country. This low will weaken and drift east Tuesday as ridge strengthens from the west.
A few high clouds may slide into Middle TN tonight, but with high pressure firmly in place, VFR conditions are expected for this TAF cycle.
809 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020 Mid level ridging resides across the region overnight with an axis aloft FL extending northwest to the Mississippi Valley. High pressure initially off the VA/NC coast settles southward later tonight with prevailing easterly surface flow. High pressure dropping south then sliding east over the Atlantic will keep prevailing east winds with weak afternoon sea breezes for the next couple of days.
809 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020 Increasing clouds and warmer tonight with lows around 60.
Rain should become more efficient in time as air mass becomes more barotropic in nature and ridging influences wane.
935 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020 Current satellite shows encroaching mid cloud into the northern half of the CWA, roughly north of the Parkways, associated with a washed out warm front well to our north. The Ohio Valley remains under upper ridging that currently covers the CONUS. At the surface, high pressure is centered near Cincinnati. This high will continue to get pushed southeast towards the North Carolina coast.
A weak cold front will cross northern and central Utah Tuesday, with continued hot temperatures through the remainder of the week.
648 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020 Another day of gusty southwest winds under a upper level ridge axis has allowed temperatures to reach the 90s for the first day of June. Dewpoints have also pushed into the low 60s, which will make for another relatively warm night tonight with lows in the mid to upper 60s. On Tuesday, temperatures are once again forecast to reach the mid 90s as a cold front approaches from the northwest. By late afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to develop near the cold front in or just northwest of the forecast area.
721 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020 High pressure departs eastward Tuesday with an approaching warm front. Dew points will also rise into the low 60s across the lower terrain by Tuesday afternoon. A warm front boundary will be draped a few hundred miles shy of the northern forecast area boundary, keeping shower potential out of our territories through the forecast period.
Stretch of quiet weather continues for one more night, with increase in high clouds and slightly higher dew points adding up to overnight lows a bit warmer in most location.
There is a chance of mountain showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening as a weak upper level trough continues to move over the area. Temperatures early this afternoon are a few degrees warmer than yesterday and will peak in the mid to upper 80s in the Valley and 50s to 70s in the mountains and foothills.
740 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020 Cool and dry weather is expected today and tonight as high pressure migrates across the Carolinas. Temperatures will begin to warm and humidity will increase by midweek through the end of the week as high pressure settles far off the Southeast United States coast. Above normal temperatures in store for the short term period with a 500mb ridge overhead and southwesterly flow across the area.
/EC/ With mid to upper level ridging overhead, conditions at the surface are quiet and on par for the beginning of June. /10/ Upper ridging slowly breaks down going through midweek.
A weak upper low will move over the region tomorrow, bringing low level moisture northward into the region along with some diurnal showers and thunderstorms after 02/15z. Overnight lows will slowly warm each night with high temps keeping station, as the surface winds orient more off the Gulf's warmer waters by late in the short term period.
139 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020 Increasing clouds and warmer tonight with lows around 60.
(Today and tonight) An upper low currently located over west TX will migrate northeastward throughout the day.
A broad upper ridge encompasses much of the south today with a weak upper low to the west over TX/OK.
1250 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020 For the 02/06Z TAF period, VFR conditions still prevail as clouds are mainly limited to cirrus across our terminal airspace which is east of an upper level low that continues to lift northward across north central Texas. Expect some convection to be enhanced with daytime heating on Tuesday as this upper low continues to shift NE along the middle Red River Valley into our region.
An upper ridge over the area will weaken and shift east tonight into Tuesday as an upper low evolves over the Arklatex region. Increased moisture and the approaching upper low will allow for the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms during the day tomorrow. Highs tomorrow will be slightly cooler as the upper ridge moves east and more clouds move into the area.
425 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020 Return flow around exiting high pressure will provide above normal temperatures and increasing humidity levels today as dry conditions prevail.
237 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020 A weak low pressure system currently over West Texas will begin lifting northeastward today, resulting in decreasing rain chances across most of the area. Rising heights associated with a ridge to the west of the area will also mark the beginning of a warming trend today, with highs this afternoon warming up a bit closer to normal in the upper 80s to middle 90s for most, with lower 100s through portions of the Rio Grande Valley.
High pressure will continue its track to the southeast U. coast, with return flow setting the stage for warmer and more humid conditions. Mid level ridging early in the week will break down by Wednesday, resulting in more of a west/northwest flow pattern.
/issued 301 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020/ (Tonight and Tuesday) Currently, there are scattered showers and thunderstorms across most of West Central Texas as a tropical-like upper level low to our west drifts north into the Permian Basin.
302 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020 Surface analysis this morning reveals broad high pressure influencing much of the eastern/southeastern CONUS. Some light echoes have been picked up on radar this morning, but dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere is helping to evaporate the precipitation before it even reaches the ground. Upper level ridging will expand into the Ohio Valley, bringing with it much warmer temperatures. Subsidence associated with the ridge and warm air aloft will keep conditions dry today and tonight. Sfc cold front drops south Wednesday night through central Indiana, increasing the chance of showers/storms for southern Indiana and north-central Kentucky.
302 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020 Summer-like conditions remain on track for eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas later this week and into the upcoming weekend, as upper level ridging continues to build into the region. The main forecast concern during this time frame involve timing any thunderstorm chances across parts of the area associated with both weaknesses in the ridge and any tropical interactions. The first chance for thunderstorms remains on track for this afternoon and into early evening across parts of southeast Oklahoma in association with increasing deep layer moisture and an approaching upper level area of low pressure currently located across West Texas. The aforementioned upper level low slow to exit the region, another round of thunderstorms is likely to affect a larger portion of eastern Oklahoma and especially western Arkansas on Wednesday afternoon.
The deep trough along the Pacific splits into a closed low overnight which will allow the high pressure system to retrograde slightly on Tuesday. With the ridge axis overhead, anticipate weaker winds aloft and a reduction in critical fire weather concerns tomorrow afternoon. However, with a ridge directly overhead. the closed low will remain spinning off the southern California coast while a ridge of high pressure straddles the Four Corners region on Wednesday.
For tonight expect another ridge riding s/w to spawn some convection late tonight, with that activity potentially making it to the James valley before decreasing or dissipating. Developing LLJ of moderate intensity will develop over the High Plains tnt and should help usher in more moisture/instability to the region. We will still have a ridge of high pressure in place at 12Z Wednesday that will slowly exit east through the day.
334 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020 Some mid level accas on satellite and weak radar returns starting to show up this morning out west with the influence of the approaching short wave trough to our northwest. Therefore, with increasing upper level lift with the short wave trough moving in, expect sct thunderstorms to develop in north central sd and develop/spread east and southeast through the morning along the developing surface cold pool. The other issue will be if there is redevelopment again this afternoon in the east with lift from the upper level low pressure trough or will it be stabilized. Otherwise, slightly cooler and drier air will be making it into the cwa today on north winds with highs in the 80s.
An upper level high situated over Missouri and Arkansas and an upper level ridge over the Rockies will continue the quiet weather pattern in southwest Kansas through the short term. Tuesday the trough in eastern Colorado is forecast to be pushed farther east from the convection that happens tonight. Highs will warm back into the lower to mid 90s. Dewpoints in and around Hays are forecast to be in the lower to mid 60s ahead of a weak cold front which will provide the lifting mechanism for the storms Wednesday night.
319 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020 A deep layer ridge stretches from the Caribbean northward across Florida and the Gulf and into the Mississippi Valley.
Continued warm temperatures are expected tonight with lows in the low to mid 70s; humidity will continue to be high, so expect muggy and buggy conditions to continue. Partly cloudy skies on Wednesday will lead to another warmer day with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. A relatively quiet close to the work week as an upper level ridge builds into the region.
Thunderstorms will return to the area by Wednesday afternoon as a cold front approaches and disturbances move through aloft. Finally, dry weather will return late in the weekend as high pressure moves in. Models in good agreement that the upper ridge, currently over the Mississippi Valley will weaken and shift to the southeastern states by Wednesday afternoon. This will allow an upper trough to move into the Mississippi Valley and the southern edge of the faster west- northwest flow aloft to settle south across central Indiana. Disturbances in the flow aloft and an approaching cold front will interact with a moderately unstable atmosphere /model CAPES 1200 to 2500 J/KG and bring a risk of thunderstorms to the area by Wednesday afternoon.
252 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020 High pressure offshore will build into the Carolinas through midweek.
1221 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020 There is a very low potential for an isolated evening storm near the DHT terminal on Tuesday which is not covered in the TAF given the low probability.
130 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2020 The northern plains remains beneath an upper ridge, while an upper low spins off the coast of CA. With cool air advecting into the area, highs will range from the lower 70s across northeastern WY and the Black Hills to the mid 80s across central SD.
A large upper level ridge centered across the Plains will continue to edge east toward the Mississippi River Valley the next 24 hours. SPC has highlighted the entire cold front from the Plains to the mid Atlantic in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms during this period.
The northwesterly upper- level flow pattern will transition away from the area on Tuesday as a broad upper level ridge builds over the eastern CONUS. King By early Wednesday, high pressure center has moved well offshore but the ridge axis remains situated across the CWA. The western edge of the ridge axis should begin to erode later on Wednesday allowing for deeper Gulf moisture to stream northward.
210 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020 Upper ridge will be in play today along with a rather noticeable warmup. On Wednesday, upper ridge becomes suppressed and shifts to our southeast.
A trough swinging through the region today will bring showers across the eastern mountains. An isolated storm or two is possible as well, but with the cooler temps and abundant cloud cover, destabilization will be limited. Winds will pick up a bit behind the trough and may become breezy through the eastern Gorge and Kittitas valley.
145 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020 Temperatures and humidity will increase in the days ahead as high pressure settles offshore. Clouds may bleed into the corner of NC as ridge-top moisture on NW trajectory impinges our doorstep near daybreak. Above normal temperatures in store for the short term period with a 500mb ridge overhead and southwesterly flow across the area.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 67 89 68 88 / 10 0 20 10 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 67 89 68 87 / 10 0 20 10 60 Oak Ridge, TN 86 66 89 68 88 / 10 0 20 10 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 63 87 65 85 / 10 0 10 10 60.
144 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020 High pressure will build into the Carolinas through midweek.
Some of the high resolution ensemble members are a bit more bullish, with HREF showing a few updraft helicity tracks into our far southwestern counties. Tonight, conditions should be pretty quiet with brief upper ridging and a slightly cooler air mass over the area. Winds will be turning to the south ahead of the trough axis, but moisture return does not seem too impressive except right along the boundary.
1148 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020 An upper level ridge of high pressure will remain in control of sensible weather through Tuesday. Subsidence beneath the ridge and a relatively dry lower troposphere will result in no chances for showers and thunderstorms.
A weak upper trof lifting out of the Sabine River valley will augment Midsouth rain chances on Wednesday.
A weak cold front will cross the area through tomorrow, bringing slightly cooler temperatures for northern Utah.
1022 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2020 Upper ridging continues across the Great Plains today, with generally quiet weather across the area. High pressure has been building into the area, bringing slightly cooler air than yesterday. A cold front will push through late tonight into Tuesday morning.
Highs Wednesday will be in the mid 80s to the lower 90s.
A strong upper level ridge remains in place across the central US keeping Nebraska dry through this morning. Storms across north central and into south central Nebraska end by midnight, however, storms redevelop across the Pine Ridge region and into northern Nebraska. The upper level ridge that was in place earlier in the week keeping conditions mostly dry, will break down by mid-week.
As upper ridging further breaks down today and with some help from a weak mid/upper wave over TX/OK in the increasingly moist environment, isolated to scattered diurnal showers and storms will become more likely, with the greatest coverage expected over the southeastern quadrant of the area.