Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/Issued 441 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017/ An upper low near the Four Corners region and southern Rockies this morning will track slowly east and northeast through tonight as it approaches the Panhandles. Convection is expected to increase today and tonight with subsidence behind the departing upper trough on Tuesday resulting in a decrease in convection by Tuesday morning. However, a second upper trough will approach the Panhandles from the central and southern Rockies by late Tuesday as an upper high builds near far West Texas and the southern Rockies and allows for the upper flow to transition to northwesterly. A cold front will push slowly through the forecast area Tuesday before stalling late Tuesday just east and south of the Panhandles.
After the passage of the cold front, temperatures will drop to below normal for a bit and dry weather can be expected from mid week into the weekend. All area temperatures will slowly settle to the lower 70s overnight on track with forecast. A cold front will approach the area on Tuesday afternoon. Instability will increase ahead of the front through the day and with forcing from the front and increasing winds at 850 mb could see some organization to the storms during the afternoon/early evening hours ahead of/along the cold front. By Tuesday night the cold front will be reaching the border if its not already through the area, and thus kept a chance for showers and storms in the southeast counties but tapered to dry in the northwest.
327 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 A cold front will push through the area tomorrow triggering showers and thunderstorms.
247 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017 Weak high pressure is situated to our east, granting us one last day and night of dry weather before the next surface system begins to affect Middle Tennessee. Tonight will be especially muggy as low temperatures settle in the low to mid 70's most locations.
418 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 High pressure moving off the Mid Atlantic coast will bring a warm and increasingly humid southerly flow to the region into Tuesday. A strong cold front will move through the region late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Cooler and drier conditions will return for the second half of the week. The front should bring in much cooler weather Tuesday night.
An approaching cold front and upper disturbances will interact with a very warm, moist and unstable atmosphere and result in unsettled weather over all or parts of central Indiana through Tuesday evening.
646 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 High pressure moving off the Mid Atlantic coast will bring a warm and increasingly humid southerly flow to the region into Tuesday. A strong cold front will move through the region late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Cooler and drier conditions will return for the second half of the week. Activity continues to weaken overall but still some local heavy rainers over the lower Susq River Valley early tonight. Mins will range from the lower 60s north to the lower 70s southeast. The front should bring in much cooler weather Tuesday night.
A cold front will bring more organized showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, then drier and cooler air moves in for the rest of the week. Lows tonight will remain warm and muggy dropping only in the lower 70s. Timed the convection through the region in the after along what appears to be a pre-frontal trough.
Temperatures will begin to warm again later in the week as a ridge of high pressure starts to build into our region.
607 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 High pressure will build to the south of the region through tonight before sliding to the east on Tuesday.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms over southeastern New Mexico and the higher terrain of southwest Texas have decreased over the last couple of hours. /issued 338 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017/ Subtropical ridge centered off the NC coast stretches to TX with a closed low over the CA coast. Circulation between this high and low pulling Pacific moisture across Mexico and into SE NM and W TX. This low will spin over CA the next several days before lifting NE over the ridge late in the week. By the weekend the ridge will build over the Western US.
Once the eclipse is over, increasing cirrus should help keep temperatures a bit cooler than what would have normally occurred if temperatures were allowed to rise quicker earlier in the day. Any developing convection will help push the surface cold front south of the CWA by the end of the night, and end our chances of precipitation. After any lingering showers/storms exit the area Tuesday morning, dry and a bit cooler weather is expected for the rest of the day as high pressure settles in overhead.
Looking at satellite imagery, easterly flow aloft around the upper low centered near the central/southern CA coast is quite evident based on the motion of clouds. Late tonight, simulations are indicating the possibility for nocturnal showers and possibly even a few thunderstorms south of Interstate 80 as a disturbance (currently near the Lower Colorado River Valley) works around the east side of the aforementioned upper low. Tuesday is still looking like the best day for thunderstorm coverage as the region gets into a favorable area of divergence aloft ahead of the upper low.
Temperatures dropped anywhere from 4-10 degrees during the eclipse! Temps are starting to recover, however, and will top out in the low 90s this afternoon. Lows will be in the low/mid 70s. Rain chances ramp up across southern IN/northern KY Tuesday morning ahead of a strong cold front.
/issued 330 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017/ (Today and Tonight) An upper level ridge centered across the Southeast United States will stretch into Texas today and tonight, resulting in generally hot and dry conditions for West Central Texas. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.
300 PM MDT Mon Aug 21 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure and cold front now southeast of the CWA, with high pressure over southwest SK. Upper level analysis shows trough over south central Canada with west-northwest flow over the Northern Plains. Much drier air is slowly filtering in from the north and west, with dewpoints ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s over northeast WY and far western SD, to the low to mid 60s over south central SD.
122 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 High pressure moving off the Mid Atlantic coast will bring a warm and increasingly humid southerly flow to the region into Tuesday. A strong cold front will move through the region late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Cooler and drier conditions will return for the second half of the week. The front should bring in much cooler weather Tuesday night. After our surge of heat and humidity, the strong front will bring a noticeably cooler and drier airmass to the region starting midweek and lasting through the end of the week into the weekend. Interesting to note that the deterministic models show 850 temps as cold as 2-3C just north of the Canadian border behind the cold front, a reminder the change in seasons is not all that far away.
two bands of moisture primarily in the 700-500mb layer move into the area today, one across the far east through southern parts of the area and another across the far west and northwest portions of the area along a cold front.
305 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 Weak upper ridging persists this afternoon across the region, however deepening moisture has resulted a slightly better coverage of convection. Should see a bit more coverage tomorrow afternoon and evening as the upper ridge breaks down and moisture continues to increase. Convection diminishes tomorrow evening, but approaching cold front brings POPs back up between midnight and sunrise across the north.
359 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017 Late this afternoon through Tuesday, A strong mid level ridge will maintain the hot and humid airmass over the ArkLaMiss in the near term. There is sufficient instability (ML CAPE near 3500 J/KG) over northwest/north central portions of the forecast area for scattered, strong thunderstorm activity, and seabreeze convergence related deep convection is working toward the Highway 98/Pine Belt area of south central MS. There may be a limited threat for heat danger Tuesday as well given little change in the pattern/airmass, but it appears that slight weakening of the mid level ridge may help to keep the low level thermal ridge/sfc drybulb temps a degree or two cooler.
Increased winds for later this afternoon and evening with a cold front moving through. Broad upper level trough was over the Northern Plains with short wave in the flow.
Atwell Models in general agreement with the eastern trough deepening through the week.
This high will remain in place on Tuesday with tranquil conditions and pleasant temperatures.
Overnight, a weak cold front dropped into the state and at 3 am extended roughly from central Marinette county to Wausau to southeast Minnesota. MU CAPES still around 1200 j/kg near this front, but little forcing at this time as an 850 ridge slides over this morning. Return flow and instability expected to increase this afternoon ahead of a short wave trough approaching from the plains. Primary weather feature to likely affect the area late today and especially tonight is the 850 trough passage. 850 mb trough with surface cold front slide through late tonight or early Tuesday to end the precipitation chances from west to east. Cooler and drier air will pour into the region on gusty northwest winds.
302 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 Scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms this afternoon in response to the combination of diurnal heating, boundary interactions and a weak trough. High pressure ridge that is to the Northeast Today, will be to the East of NE FL on Tuesday. The ridging is expected to provide subsidence across NE FL limiting convective potential, with chances for convection for SE GA.
451 PM MDT Mon Aug 21 2017 West-northwest flow aloft prevails this afternoon under the influence of a broad mid-upper level northern CONUS trough.
After the passage of the cold front, temperatures will drop to below normal for a bit and dry weather can be expected from mid week into the weekend. With the cloud cover from the incoming precip low temperatures should remain in the low 70s. A cold front will approach the area on Tuesday afternoon. Instability will increase ahead of the front through the day and with forcing from the front and increasing winds at 850 mb could see some organization to the storms during the afternoon/early evening hours ahead of/along the cold front. By Tuesday night the cold front will be reaching the border if its not already through the area, and thus kept a chance for showers and storms in the southeast counties but tapered to dry in the northwest.
At the surface, a cold front extended from James Bay through ern Upper Michigan to cntrl WI. Today, expect mid clouds to gradually increase as WAA strengthens ahead of a trough developing from Nebrasaka into WI. Tonight, as the mid level trough deepens into the n cntrl CONUS the models have trended toward a stronger sfc wave of low pressure lifting into se Upper Michigan late tonight.
153 PM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017 A weak trough of low pressure over the Channel Islands will continue to keep a cooler than normal air mass in place through midweek.
Later Tuesday to Tuesday night, a cold front will slowly move southeast and develop scattered showers and thunderstorms.
344 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 High pressure will build south of the area this evening. Low pressure will approach from the west on Tuesday.
A cold front in eastern Montana will gradually move into western ND this morning, then into central ND this afternoon. Northerly flow at the surface and aloft will result in cooler/drier air this evening and tonight.
1118 AM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017 A weak trough of low pressure over the Channel Islands will continue to keep a cooler than normal air mass in place through midweek.
453 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 High pressure continues into Tuesday. Strong cold front late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Cooler and drier high pressure into the weekend. High pressure lingers into Tuesday, but then a well defined system translates through Tuesday evening.
The eclipse will impact the temps for a short time but if clouds linger and don't allow the sun, once it returns to warm things up, then we could be considerably cooler than what I have going. Later this afternoon and tonight a cold front will push through the state in conjunction with a pretty strong trough sweeping from the Plains into the Great Lake. Storms are expected to re-fire late afternoon and tonight but really could develop in a more widespread regime than just the cold front. it is not looking great for Iowa since there will be quite a bit of cloud cover and moisture surging north ahead of the cold front.
425 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 Quiet weather tonight under a mild humid southwest flow with high pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast. Very warm temperatures continue on Tuesday, but an approaching cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon and evening tapering off Tuesday night.
An upper level trough will track from south-central Canada across the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley today into tonight. This wave will eject slowly northeastward into western Kansas today, ahead of the main upper level trough to the north. A moderately-strong southerly low-level jet will develop tonight, ahead of a southward moving cold front which is progged to move into central Kansas after midnight. The cold front will push southward through southern Kansas Tuesday, with a chance of lingering showers/thunderstorms, while clearing occurs in the northern part of the state.
223 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 High pressure will build to the south of the region through tonight before sliding to the east on Tuesday.
Today and Tuesday will likely be the warmest days of the work week as a flat upper ridge moves through.
253 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 Under mostly sunny skies and east winds of 10 to 15 mph, temperatures are in the lower 90s on most Keys communities.
219 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017 We will be in a fairly active weather pattern the next seven days with rain chances increasing over most of the forecast area through midweek, and a shot at cooler than normal temperatures potentially through the remainder of August thereafter.
222 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 High pressure continues into Tuesday. Strong cold front late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Cooler and drier high pressure into the weekend. High pressure lingers into Tuesday, but then a well defined system translates through Tuesday evening. As the upper level trough digs into the Great Lakes, there will be two actual cold front pushing through the Ohio Valley and the mountains.
231 PM MDT Mon Aug 21 2017 West-northwest flow aloft prevails this afternoon under the influence of a broad mid-upper level northern CONUS trough.
424 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017 Latest water vapor satellite imagery/upper air analysis showed a deep layer ridge axis across the Southeastern States, with an upper low spinning over the North Central Gulf of Mexico. At the SFC, high pressure extended from the Carolinas into Central TX. While most of this activity is expected to wane with the loss of diurnal instability, have left a small PoP over ERN zones as the upper low over the NC Gulf continues to track slowly WWD. This feature is progged to continue WWD on TUE while weakening over the NW Gulf Coast Region, while a robust upper trof digs into the ERN CONUS, eroding and shunting southward the ridge over the Southeastern States.
Temps should be a deg or two cooler than seen on Sun primarily due to slightly increased cloud cover. A cold front will be approaching from the north on Tue into Tue night.
Winds and seas are slightly elevated through tonight though no headlines are expected with it as the area is between the weak tropical wave moving off to the NW and high pressure from the Atlantic.
610 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 High pressure moving off the Mid Atlantic coast will bring a warm and increasingly humid southerly flow to the region into Tuesday. A strong cold front will move through the region late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Cooler and drier conditions will return for the second half of the week. The front should bring in much cooler weather Tuesday night.
508 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 Thunderstorms over the lower Wabash River Valley, have gusted out per the latest VWX radar scans. Temperatures dropped anywhere from 4-10 degrees during the eclipse! Temps are starting to recover, however, and will top out in the low 90s this afternoon. Lows will be in the low/mid 70s. Rain chances ramp up across southern IN/northern KY Tuesday morning ahead of a strong cold front.
354 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017 (Tonight through Tuesday) Temperatures will climb into the upper 90s by the end of this afternoon as the subtropical ridge in the western Atlantic has allowed for southerly flow to persist across the area. A strengthening upper level high pressure system remains over much of the area and will keep the rain chances off to our west. By Tuesday afternoon, the upper level high pressure system begins to migrate west allowing for northwest flow to return. Rain chances will increase Tuesday afternoon and evening as an area of low pressure moving through northeastern Canada will drag a cold front south toward west Texas.
Dewpoints continue to run in the low to mid 70s, which will lead to light, localized fog overnight. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s.
131 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 A cold front will push through the area tomorrow triggering showers and thunderstorms.
A dry push of boundary layer air characterized by dewpoints in the 50s and upper 40s Tuesday night will will advance into the lower plains, creating a zone of baroclinicity immediately south of our area. The model consensus maintains a somewhat seasonal temperatures spread, with highs just a few degrees below normal for late August, in the mid 80s, and lows generally in the low 60s. Later tonight a cold front will move through the region switching the winds from the south to the north by mainly 12Z. Ceilings are expected to drop after the cold front passage from 12Z-18Z.
From mid afternoon into the early overnight, a short wave trough will move southeast through the region. This will result in the rapid development of showers and storms along the stalled front located near the Interstate 90 corridor and approaching cold front. In addition, with the 0-1 km shear will become perpendicular with the cold front this evening, so will have to watch out for the potential for isolated quasi linear convective tornadoes mainly south of Interstate 90. In the wake of the cold front on Tuesday, high pressure will build across the area.
234 PM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017 A ridge of high pressure and warmer than normal temperatures will start the week. A passing upper level storm system in southwest BC will bring cooler weather, clouds, and a few showers by mid-late week. Then a ridge of high pressure returns by the weekend along with temperatures climbing well above normal. The weather will bring temperatures a few degrees warmer than today with heights remaining at or above 585dm. At 500 mb a trough of low pressure will be pushing towards the central BC coast and help heights across the coastal areas to trend downwards on Tuesday here as well.
just enough moisture to kick off isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm through 3 or 5 PM mainly in the Lower and Mid Valley, with a sunny day on the beach as diurnal stability trends are underway.
224 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 High pressure centered off the coast will cause increased moisture in a southeast to south flow. However, the moisture will remain shallow because of upper ridging and limit thunderstorm coverage.
Temperatures will top out in the low to mid 90s this afternoon. /issued 346 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017/ A broad subtropical ridge extends from west to east from the Southern Plains into the western Atlantic this morning. Temperatures today will be near climatology for late August with highs in the low to mid 90s. Rain chances will be on the increase Tuesday afternoon as a cold front approaches the area from the north.
118 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 High pressure moving off the Mid Atlantic coast will bring a warm and increasingly humid southerly flow to the region into Tuesday. A strong cold front will move through the region late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Cooler and drier conditions will return for the second half of the week. The front should bring in much cooler weather Tuesday night. After our surge of heat and humidity, the strong front will bring a noticeably cooler and drier airmass to the region starting midweek and lasting through the end of the week into the weekend. Interesting to note that the deterministic models show 850 temps as cold as 2-3C just north of the Canadian border behind the cold front, a reminder the change in seasons is not all that far away.
255 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017 Main forecast concern is on convective potential and timing with cold front dropping through the area late tonight and Tuesday. High pressure begins to build southward into the area late Tuesday night.
/issued 935 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017/ Upper level ridging remains in place across the Four State Region this morning with the effects of an upper level low pressure system across the Central Gulf of Mexico actually helping to advect some drier air into the region from the south and east.
The upper low over the Gulf is forecast to continue its slow westward trek towards the local waters through early tomorrow. if not from lift along this low's far western reaches.
After a mainly clear night tonight, moisture will start to increase Tuesday ahead of the next cold front.
This trough will be the focus for further development and more intense convection. The highest rainfall totals from the deterministic and ensemble solutions is around 2. Cooler/drier air comes in late in the day but 850mb temps still fall about 5C from Monday for a cooler day.
A small "dirty" ridge of high pressure is holding control of our weather for today. Temperatures will top out around the lower 90s today but during the eclipse we may see a brief drop or lag in temperature climb. The majority of all the model guidance shows widespread showers and storms moving into the area very late tonight towards sunrise Tuesday ahead of a cold front. If we can get some breaks in the clouds and showers by the afternoon ahead of the cold front, we may see an additional round of showers and storms develop over southern Missouri during the afternoon and move southward into Arkansas by evening.
Some fog should also develop over the area early this morning, though it may be more patchy in nature with the low stratus development. The low stratus may take a little longer to erode and/or mix ceilings upward, perhaps by midday at the latest. A nice day is expected, with weak high pressure moving across the region. Highs should be near seasonal normals, and a bit cooler with onshore winds near Lake Michigan.
The high-resolution short range models do have it settling across the Peoria/Bloomington areas toward 9-10 am, before stalling out.
A cold front will stall across central Utah today.
357 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 Latest water vapor imagery shows an elongated ridge of high pressure sitting stagnant over the Florida peninsula.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY/: High pressure continues to dominate South Florida weather pattern. With upper level ridge across region the wind will continue to be light southeasterly to easterly flow. High temperatures will continue to be in the low to mid 90s, with overnight lows around 80 degrees.
339 AM PDT Tue Aug 15 2017 Weak low pressure will develop off the coast during the week with overall light winds.
SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): Mid-level high pressure anchored over the northern Gulf combined with very dry air above 850mb will lead to another hot and dry day across Deep South Texas.
Upper ridge located to our south across the Gulf with westerlies in place across the mid state.