Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE EAST INTO THE LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. TONIGHT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO FAR SRN MN/N-CENTRAL IA. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE FROM ERN SD ACROSS SRN MN.
AND WHEN COUPLED WITH SUBSIDENCE BELOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD FORM THIS AFTERNOON NEAR AND AHEAD OF A WEAK LEE TROUGH IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO BUT BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE EAST INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA UNTIL AFTER 00Z. WEAKENING COLD FRONT SHOULD BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY AND SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH. RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST AND WEAKENS BY MID WEEK AND DEEPER MOISTURE ENCROACHES ON THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.
110 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 A VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD TOWARD THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS STRIVING TO AFFECT NORTHERN NY AS BASE OF UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION.
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH HOWEVER. THE 03Z SREF WAS STILL WAS FOCUSING HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE HIGHER QPF THIS REGION FOR NOW. GIVEN IT IS MUCH STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THE LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
555 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WERE NOTED ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. TEMPS EARLY TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. TO AROUND 60F IN THE URBAN AREAS OF THE LOWER/MID SUSQ VALLEY.
The upper ridge will continue to dominate the region today and tonight. Temperatures at 850mb will be even warmer today, as compared to yesterday.
A thunderstorm complex has developed over South Dakota on top of the ridge axis in an area where upper level energy was moving in from the west and beginning to break down that ridge.
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THUS SHIELDING US FROM THE SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WHICH WILL BEGIN TO BE ADVECTED IN ALOFT. WARMER WITH INCREASING CLOUDS MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. DESPITE THE CLOUDS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE NORTHLAND WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH SEASONALLY NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH LATER FRIDAY AND MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS FEATURE LATER FRIDAY.
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
This should result in a warmer, but still seasonal, day as low level moisture increases.
118 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF OF THE COAST TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND.
DRYING IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO DIP INTO THE LOW 70S TO POSSIBLY UPPER 60S IN LOW-LYING SPOTS TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION WILL BRING IN MUCH DRIER AIR THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT COOLER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S FOR INLAND COASTAL PLAINS.
317 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015 COOL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS EARLY TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS SLIDING EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL SLOPE. THE QUESTIONS ON WHERE THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS AND WHERE IS MOVES. INSTEAD OF TRACKING SOME LARGE JET OR WATCHING THE SLOW EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LOW EXITING A DEEP TROF. LOWS UNDER THE INCREASED CLOUDS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN PAST NIGHTS. GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.
415 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 A VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TODAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND. BASE OF 500MB TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY, PRODUCING PLENTIFUL CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS, MAINLY IN THE MORNING. AFTER 18Z, MODELS SHOW THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO NH AND ME. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WHILE AT THE SURFACE, RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL, RANGING FROM MID 60S TO MID 70S AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW-MID 80S WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
1218 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TERMINAL FORECAST SITES ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA WILL HAVE VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES THROUGH 28/06Z FRIDAY. EVEN WITH TEMPS DIPPING TO NEAR DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPRAWL DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO HANGING ONTO 1022 MB IN N MO. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE ROCKIES LIFTING INTO CANADA AND THE DEEPENING TROUGH IS EASING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND.
208 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 596 DM CENTER AXIS EXTENDING NORTH OVER OUR CWA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW THE BEST PRECIP SIGNAL IN OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG PRE FRONTAL TROUGH.
352 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WERE NOTED ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. TEMPS EARLY TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. TO AROUND 60F IN THE URBAN AREAS OF THE LOWER/MID SUSQ VALLEY.
OTHERWISE RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
A broad upper level low will likely develop along the Gulf coast states.
An upper level ridge remains centered over the Rocky mountain region, with northwest flow aloft occurring over the region.
HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES SUBSIDENCE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. INFLUENCE OF THE 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE THE 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL SLIDE NE. THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST. WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS.
WARMING TREND COMMENCES TODAY, AS UPPER TROUGH OVER OUR AREA STARTS TO WEAKEN.
1201 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 922 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/ AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AS DRY AND COOL AIR REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
251 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015 A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS POSITIONED OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. MAIN UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR WEST WILL BEGIN GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS A LITTLE FURTHER WESTWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MODELS INDICATE TWO RIDGES. TROUGHINESS WILL PERSIST.
300 AM PDT THU AUG 27 2015 NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONTINUED RECORD HEAT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND DESERTS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.
555 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT AMPLE DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TODAY PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S BUT A SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO CAP OFF THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. SHOULD SEE THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF AND MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF.
AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE IT WILL GENERALLY BE WARMER THAN NORMAL AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR WEAK RAIN SHOWER IN THE MORNING DUE TO THE STILL CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW.
BUT WITH THE RELAXING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH LATER TONIGHT DO THINK THE CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT. WILL ALLOW FOR SMALL RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE TONIGHT BUT NOT AS LARGE AS IF SKIES WERE CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT WILL BE GREATER FOR FRIDAY MORNING MINIMUMS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH NOT AS DEEP.
ALONG WITH THE EASTERN EXPANSION OF THE WESTERN PLAINS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER AREA THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT WEST OF THE AREA BY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOW/MID 90S INLAND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. RELATIVELY WET CONDS EXPECTED AS MID LEVEL TROF RETROGRADES TO THE WEST AND MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
/issued 310 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/ Looks like a quiet day as an upper level ridge of high pressure dominates.
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE EAST WHICH MEANS CWFA WILL BE ON SUBSIDENT/DRY SIDE AND THUS NO RAIN WITH LOTS OF DAYTIME SUNSHINE IN STORE. MODELS CONTINUE VARYING IN THE LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF AND WEST/CENTRAL GULF COAST. GFS NOW POSITIONS THE UPPER LOW FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION.
317 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
330 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015 EARLY MORNING SURFACE MAP INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES.
OTHER AREAS WITHIN THIS HIGHER MOISTURE AREA ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE STABLE AND PRECIP CHANCES ARE NOT MENTIONED.
356 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 OVERALL THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES THAT WILL INFLUENCE SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INCLUDE A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THAT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AND TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WHICH IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND PWATS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AND FRIDAY.
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS INTACT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS COLORADO AND WYOMING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. WE SHIFT OUR FOCUS TO CHANCES FOR PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE AN AN IMPRESSIVE PACIFIC COLD FRONT. IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER TOMORROW WITH H7 TEMPS FALLING TO 8-10 C BY 18Z THU. WARMER AND DRIER FOR FRI AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED. SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE FRONT RANGE BY THE WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS.
400 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015 SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SWWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAINTAINING OUR COOL DRY AIRMASS WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS AND RIDGING OVER THE SRN ROCKIES MAINTAINING A DRY NRLY FLOW ALOFT. DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER NEWD OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY THE WEEKEND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW IS PROGGED TO SPLIT OFF FROM THE ERN CONUS TROF.
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A COOL/COLD FRONT GENERALLY FROM MCCOOK TO GOODLAND AND TRIBUNE SHOULD HELP PROMOTE A BIT MORE EFFICIENCY IN RAINFALL PRODUCTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING UPPER PATTERN SHOWING UPPER RIDGE AXIS REBUILDING FROM NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA WITH A STORM SYSTEM/UPPER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND AND BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED WARM WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR WEST WILL BEGIN GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS A LITTLE FURTHER WESTWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MODELS INDICATE TWO RIDGES. TROUGHINESS WILL PERSIST.
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN WAA REGIME AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME LIKELY AFTER 03Z TONIGHT ALONG AN APPROACHING SFC COLD FRONT. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO FINALLY SWING THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z FRIDAY.
244 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WERE NOTED ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. TEMPS EARLY TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. TO AROUND 60F IN THE URBAN AREAS OF THE LOWER/MID SUSQ VALLEY.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN CANADA WILL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF CLOUDY SKIES.
OUR REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A TROF OVER THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE DOMINATING THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS AT THE UPPER LEVELS. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BUT STILL EXERTED STRONG INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION. AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY BUT SHOULD RETAIN A DOMINANT INFLUENCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
315 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING AS AN ACCOMPANYING VORT MAX KEEPS SHOWERS AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN AS GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA. BUT MODELS ARE REALLY BACKING OFF ON COVERAGE AS STABILITY INCREASES THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE.
TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT IS THE LOW TEMPS. SOME SPOTS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW 50S SO BUMPED THE LOWS DOWN 1-2 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE TROUGH WILL FINALLY PUSH EWD THIS AFTERNOON. THE LL RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WILL BEGIN USHERING IN 60 DEGREE DEW POINTS AND WARMER TEMPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL FINALLY RETURN TO THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.
303 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
401 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS ENJOYING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER WY. LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST SD/NORTHERN NE. WARM AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW ARE KEEPING SOUTH CENTRAL SD IN THE 70S EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH COOLER AIR STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WESTERN CWA. WITH MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE CWA. SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA AS THE LOW TRANSITIONS EASTWARD. BUT WITH INCOMING COOLER AIR AND CLOUDY/RAINY CONDITIONS. COOLER TEMPS THAN THE PREDICTED MID 70S TO MID 80S ARE POSSIBLE. THERMAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND OVER THE REGION FRIDAY.
THERE IS A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CONUS WHICH IS SPLITTING TWO TROUGHS. THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE PACIFIC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT OFF THE ROCKIES AND RIDE OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW. AND MAKING IT TO ROUGHLY THE HIGHWAY 81 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP IN THE UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND RIDGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO BE COOLER. WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEING THE PRIMARY FEATURE TO AFFECT THE AREA.
FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.
323 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EXTENDS NORTH ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL HELP TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ADVANCE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID SOUTH BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
1205 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US IS AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LEE TROUGH. ON THURSDAY THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS THAT THE ORGANIZED STRONGER CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSOURI BUT A SMALL LINE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEVELOPS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL IOWA AND SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FORCING INCREASES CONSIDERABLY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA.
FOG AND DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN PREVALENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. VSBYS HAVE INCREASED A LITTLE HIGHER EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
KABI (Abilene) and KSJT (San Angelo) may briefly lift into the low end VFR category for a few hours this afternoon but this should last only a few hours before deteriorating back into MVFR during the evening. As another mid latitude cyclone approaches from the west, rain chances increase significantly for the tonight period. Models bring the main wave of precipitation into West Central Texas after midnight, as a pacific cold front approaches from the west. (Thursday) The best rain chances will be on Thursday, as the upper trough moves into the southern Rockies and a cold front pushes east across West Central Texas.
/issued 401 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015/ Large and deep upper level trough across the intermountain west will weaken some and track through the Rockies through tonight before emerging onto the western high plains Thursday. The main impact from this system will start tonight as large scale lift increases above a combo dryline/cold front moving eastward through the Permian Basin. Prefer the higher thunderstorm chances depicted on the ECMWF/GFS/CMC guidance in the Permian Basin of west Texas over the NAM given the strength of the forcing depicted with the strong upper jet passing over the forecast area. Once the upper system reaches the high plains on Thursday, precipitation chances should diminish during Thursday morning in the eastern Permian Basin with breezy to windy conditions developing many areas as the upper trough passes north of the forecast area.
1256 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST BUT KEEP THE WEATHER DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
/issued / Low clouds have overspread the area this morning as moisture streams north and continues to deepen ahead of the next trough.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY AS IT MOVES INLAND.
HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AS UPPER TROF AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.
929 AM MST WED NOV 4 2015 DIVERGENCE ON FRONT SIDE OF UPPER TROF WAS SPREADING PRECIPITATION FROM WYOMING INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA THIS MORNING. AREA IS UNDER A LARGE UPPER TROF THIS MORNING. WITH RAIN TO THE EAST AND NOT SEEING MUCH OF A CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH COOLER AIR BUILDING IN ALOFT AND WEAK DIURNAL HEATING TODAY. GENERAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT.
255 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.
/ISSUED 230 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015/ NO BREAK IN THE LOW LEVEL MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS PRETTY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ON THURSDAY.
/ISSUED 344 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015/ UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES DEEP TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG ACROSS THE WESTERN U. WITH RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.
HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AS UPPER TROF AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
356 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN ARE THE IMPACTS FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE APPROACH.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS OVER FLORIDA AND EXTENDS NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U. TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN U. BUT STRONG RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP ANY EFFECTS FROM THIS TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE SUPPORTS A WEAK LOW AND STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. AS WE CONTINUE TO LIE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS HIGH.
143 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 Upper trough over AZ making its way closer to the area as it begins to shift into the Plains later tonight. Increasing lift along with an advancing Pacific cold front/dryline will bring parts of the region a chance of thunderstorms late this evening and overnight.
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT. DEEP AND PROGRESSIVE TROF IS POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. FAIR WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
231 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
201 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 WEDGE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BREAK THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 308 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY ERODE BY THURSDAY.
LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP INTO THE SOUTHERN/ CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY AND LOWER MISS VALLEY.
SOMEWHAT IMPLYING THE LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE NIGHT. WHERE A COLD FRONT IS STILL XPCTED TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA ON FRI. LATEST MODEL SUITES CONTINUE TO SHOW THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH PATTERN OUT W QUICKLY LIFTING TO THE NE IN THE THU/FRI TIME FRAME. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY FRI. EXTENDED GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER WX FILTERING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AROUND THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. AS A STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES BUILDS EWD INTO THE REGION.