Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Overnight tonight, expect mostly clear skies and temperatures dropping into the low to mid 60s with light winds. Better chances for precip actually start on Monday night with a front dropping into the region in association with an upper low moving across Hudson Bay.
Increased cloud cover and rain will keep afternoon temperatures a few degrees cooler than recent.
Convection just south of the cold front in KY will sag into middle TN, mainly just northeast of our area late this afternoon and evening.
An MCV over southern South Dakota is riding the northern periphery of the southern Rockies' ridge eastward this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm activity will develop as a trough begins to reach North Dakota and northern Minnesota overnight. A fairly quiet workweek is expected after the front drops south of the area Monday night, as ridging to the southwest builds back in and places the upper midwest under drier northwest flow aloft.
With weak upper troughing in the area and seasonably high moisture, expected isolated to scattered convection this afternoon into the evening before diminishing overnight. As we head towards dawn, additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop near the Florida panhandle coast in association with weak upper troughing just west of the area.
Another warm day inland is in store for Sunday, though slightly cooler than yesterday. A shallow marine layer and onshore flow will keep temperatures cooler near the coast. Higher pressure over the southwestern US will allow for warm temperatures inland with similar values to, if not slightly cooler than, yesterday. A trough at 500 mb will move toward the Pacific Northwest early in the work week providing consistent onshore flow and a cooling trend for the Bay Area. This trough will remain offshore throughout the week.
Overall, the East coast trough continues to move away with rising and higher heights aloft set to move back over our area.
1151 AM MDT Sun Aug 4 2019 Currently, an upper level ridge remains well established centered over New Mexico, with very weak westerly flow aloft over Colorado. TPW across the state remains near or slightly above normal as moisture continues to wrap around the high pressure. Temperatures span the upper 60s to low 70s across the plains, and 50s in the high valleys. Today and tonight, the ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather over southern Colorado. Temperatures will be similar to yesterday, with highs in the mid 90s across the plains, and mid 70s to mid 80s in the high mountain valleys. Not much change in the pattern for most of this upcoming week as ridge axis will remain ot our southwest.
This is helping convection with the steep lapse rates in the lower levels. Given recent overachieving temps and continuing dry conditions across much of the area, will bump afternoon highs up to the high end of model guidance with the urban areas just either side of 90 and the rest in the upper 80s. Updated at 400 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019 A strong upper level ridge currently in place over the western U. However, a series of short waves sliding over the top of the ridge will bring the chance of thunderstorms back into the area after a dry start to the work week.
419 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019 High pressure will provide ideal late summer weather to the region through Monday night with mainly clear skies and light winds.
For tnt-Mon nt, strong low pressure will move from nrn Manitoba to Hudson Bay with swly winds developing over srn WI. The srn periphery of the upper trough axis and the cold front will approach for Mon aft with weak low to mid level warm advection ahead of it. The cold frontal passage will then occur Mon nt with lingering chances for showers and storms.
300 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough off the west coast, a deep trough over the ern U. , a trough in the Canadian Prairies and a ridge over the plains and Rocky Mountains this morning. The trough over the Canadian Prairies will head southeast and affect the upper Great Lakes this forecast period. A trough of low pressure and dynamics will come in this evening and start kicking off some convection and this will overspread the area on Mon.
Aloft, similar conditions with weak steering currents until around 250mb, which shows ridge over W TX/NM, trough over the Eastern U.
234 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019 (Tonight and Monday) A weak cold frontal boundary has moved south of the San Angelo area this afternoon, as winds turned to the northeast between 1 and 2 PM at area sites across the Concho Valley, and temperatures cooled a degree or two. Temperatures tomorrow should be similar to today for areas south of I-20, and a few degrees warmer across the Big Country. Lows tonight should bottom out in the low 70s most areas.
130 PM PDT Sun Aug 4 2019 High pressure over the Southwest will continue hot days inland through Monday.
At the surface, weak ridging remained in place over the area while a cold front was progressing southeast across the Dakotas and northwest MN. Attention turns to the cold front approaching from the northwest tonight and Monday.
Bigelbach PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Upper ridge flattening as an upper trof moves through central Canada today. With the flat ridge, Canadian high pressure will slip some cooler air south of the border for temperatures more in the 80s instead of 90s. As the trough moving across Canada digs toward the Great Lakes, the upper ridge shifts slightly westward as it rebounds.
Isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, mainly across the higher terrain. Models continue to increase cloud coverage this afternoon which may limit thunderstorm development and keep temperatures slightly cooler than forecast.
304 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019 A weak cold front will bring scattered showers into this evening, mainly north of I-70.
The flow aloft becomes more northwesterly on Monday as the trough to our east begins to slide toward the Mid-Atlantic states and the mid-level ridge over the four-corners region expands east.
Todays weather was thanks to an upper level ridge over the plains and high pressure over northern Missouri.
Another hot day in store with many locales already running 1 to 3 degrees warmer than at the same time yesterday. A few isolated thunderstorms may again form across eastern Mohave county where dewpoints are generally in the low 50s and heating of the day will encourage convective initiation by mid afternoon.
As mentioned in the updated Aviation Discussion, below, a sagging cold frontal boundary could hand up across the southern RRV early Monday morning with areas of lower clouds and lingering showers in the mix. should produce overall drier and a somewhat cooler conditions.
Otherwise will generally follow the latest CAM trends and look for convective initiation from east central Montana through west central North Dakota along some leftover outflow boundaries and a relative moist plume with surface dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s. Sunshine has allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 80s southwest but dewpoints have fallen there into the lower 50s. The best chance will be toward the weekend when an upper low will move inland and bring backing flow aloft, to teh southwest, better moisture return. Hazards to aviation include thunderstorms for KDIK-KBIS-KJMS this afternoon and tonight as a cold front slide southeast though tonight.
420 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019 The latest surface map features broad high pressure from the Great Lakes down down across the Ohio Valley and Midwest regions. Aloft, an upper level ridge continues to dominate across the Desert Southwest, while troughing reigns across the eastern CONUS. The models are in good agreement through the short term, with the upper level trough dampening and moving towards the Eastern Seaboard by the end of the period.
Mainly sunny skies are being observed over northern California this afternoon as high pressure continues to influence our weather. Some cumulus clouds have started to form over the highest terrain this afternoon, but overall dry weather is expected as storms are forecast to stay outside our CWA. Temperatures are forecast to cool a few degrees each day as well, as the Four Corners ridge will shift eastward this week as an upper low developing off British Columbia approaches.
1144 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019 The current weather pattern over the Lower 48 states will remain consistent for much of this week. A weak cold front will drop across the area this afternoon and tonight, but will stall along or south of the Mason Dixon line.
105 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019 Short term concerns are extent of isolated convection this afternoon and overall development overnight ahead of surface cold front. Looking at water vapor imagery, we see what appears to be a weak short wave dropping southeast over the upper ridge into northwest MN. Various HIRES solutions have northern MN activity dropping south into the northern CWA and weakening/ending early evening before main development along the cold front drops in late tonight to the northern CWA. Cold front drops southeast with likely PoPs dropping south in the afternoon with the front.
228 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019 General upper troughiness holds over the eastern U. Upper ridging from the over TX late in the week slowly builds into the Gulf over the weekend while E Coast trough holds. Weak high pressure will remain over the region through the week with light SW-W flow and slight seas.
, downstream of an upper ridge centered over the 4-corners region. Late morning pre-thunderstorm base velocity and VAD wind profile products from KNQA and TMEM radars showed very little wind the lowest several thousand feet of the atmosphere. With little in the way of convergence, thunderstorms initially formed on topographic features like the southern end of Crowley's Ridge, and near the eastern boundary of the delta over northwest MS. The aforementioned height ridge over the 4-corners will lift east into NM and west TX by midweek. while northern branch energy carves out a longwave trof over the eastern U.
1218 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019 Dry weather to prevail over the region both today and tomorrow as high pressure centered over the western Great Lakes extends southwest into our region. Temperatures will warm into the middle 80s today and upper 80s on Monday as high pressure slides east and southerly flow returns to the area.
224 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019 A 500mb upper ridge centered just to our west will continue moving west to the 4-corners by tomorrow. This ridge will then hang out near Petrified Forest NP for the next few days after that.
/Tonight through Sunday/ The main forecast concern was focused on the cold front and storm potential associated with it Monday into Monday night.
106 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019 High pressure will dominate region into Monday with ideal late summer weather expected.
High pressure shifts to the south on Monday, with a return to a west southwest wind and with highs expected to be in the mid/upper 80s.
Heights and thicknesses over South Texas on Monday are progged to edge upward as a broad upper high expands east from New Mexico, so PWATs will begin drying out by about 1/4 inch over the region.
The forecast area will remain along the northern edge of a dome of high pressure into this evening. A weak cold front will move across the forecast area this evening. This will flatten the ridge a bit allowing for a northwest flow aloft on Monday.
1030 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019 A weak cold front will move across the region and stall south of the area overnight, before dissipating late. High pressure briefly builds in Monday.
/issued 343 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019/ The upper-level ridge over the Southwest will move rather little through the forecast period.
Convection continues to favor the higher terrain, though the lower elevations of southwest and west-central Colorado have filled in slightly. High pressure will build back to the west on Monday as the center sets up shop over the Four Corners region. This will result in a downturn in storm activity, particularly for the lower elevations. Still, precipitable water values are projected to exceed three quarters of an inch which will be sufficient to fuel at least scattered convection over the higher terrain by early afternoon.
1023 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019 High pressure will build in from the west overnight and will shift off to the southeast on Monday.
316 PM MDT Sun Aug 4 2019 Current upper level analysis has ridge over the Four Corners region with the Northern Plains on the down stream side of the ridge axis. At the surface, weak high pressure is nosing into western SD with frontal boundary across southern SD into northeast WY. Clouds and slightly cooler air in place will result in highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. The rest of the week looks similar, with upper high remaining over the Four Corners region and fairly active flow wrapping around the high.
1017 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019 As the mid/upper level trough axis has moved east of our areas, most convection has dissipated, with just an isolated shower or two expected in the mountains through midnight.
A ridge continues to remain in place over the western US with a trough in the east. 12Z upper air plots in combination with water vapor satellite imagery early this afternoon showed the center of the high over eastern NM. A cold front was located to our north, and that will push toward northeast NE later on Monday.
High pressure in place across the midwest will continue to provide mainly dry weather tonight through Monday Evening.
Ridge axis continues well south of ECFL. The high pressure ridge axis will remain suppressed over the southern peninsula/FL Straits. Temperatures aloft (500 mb) will be a degree or two cooler than recent days, -6. High pressure ridge axis remains suppressed southward with initial SWRLY flow backing S/SERLY in the afternoon near the coast.
/issued 224 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019/ A 500mb upper ridge centered just to our west will continue moving west to the 4-corners by tomorrow. This ridge will then hang out near Petrified Forest NP for the next few days after that.
249 PM PDT Sun Aug 4 2019 High pressure will provide a few more days of hot weather with most areas remaining dry.
230 PM PDT Sun Aug 4 2019 High pressure returns with warming temperatures through mid week.
An upper ridge will bring dry and warmer weather through Monday. An upper trough over the Northeast Pacific will slowly shift over the area later this week, cooling highs to near normal and bring a chance of showers late in the week. Overnight temperatures will cool into the upper 50s and low 60s in the lowlands overnight with a chance of some overnight and morning clouds along the coast.
735 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough off the west coast, a deep trough over the ern U. , a trough in the Canadian Prairies and a ridge over the plains and Rocky Mountains this morning. The trough over the Canadian Prairies will head southeast and affect the upper Great Lakes this forecast period. A trough of low pressure and dynamics will come in this evening and start kicking off some convection and this will overspread the area on Mon.
A cold front will push through the area on Monday. There is a chance of thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening in association with the cold front. At this time the severe threat looks to be marginal as storms may develop behind the cold front in a less favorable environment for severe storms but with the amount of moister in the area could have the potential for heavy rainfall.
The surface wind will become southwesterly on Monday with slightly warmer and more humid conditions expected.
528 PM MDT Sun Aug 4 2019 Current upper level analysis has ridge over the Four Corners region with the Northern Plains on the down stream side of the ridge axis. At the surface, weak high pressure is nosing into western SD with frontal boundary across southern SD into northeast WY. Clouds and slightly cooler air in place will result in highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. The rest of the week looks similar, with upper high remaining over the Four Corners region and fairly active flow wrapping around the high.
824 PM MDT Sun Aug 4 2019 A couple of showers have popped up in central and northern Valley County, somewhat consistent with the high resolution models (placement: yes; timing: no). Bigelbach PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Upper ridge flattening as an upper trof moves through central Canada today. With the flat ridge, Canadian high pressure will slip some cooler air south of the border for temperatures more in the 80s instead of 90s. As the trough moving across Canada digs toward the Great Lakes, the upper ridge shifts slightly westward as it rebounds.
An upper high was located over New Mexico during Sunday afternoon, while weak troughing continued to take place over the NERN PAC. After another hot afternoon during Monday, interior temperatures are forecast to gradually cool during mid to late week as an upper trough digs over the NERN PAC and cooler air aloft spreads east across the region.
This boundary was moved along by ML/UL trough axis/impulse which is now nearly off the plateau.
/issued 228 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019/ General upper troughiness holds over the eastern U. Upper ridging from the over TX late in the week slowly builds into the Gulf over the weekend while E Coast trough holds. Weak high pressure will remain over the region through the week with light SW-W flow and slight seas.
Overnight low temperatures are expected to drop into the low 70s for inland areas and into the mid and upper 70s along the coast. Trough over the Southeast continues to support showers and thunderstorm for the coastal waters during the evening hours as inland convection over southeast Georgia moves east toward the coast.
The moisture axis will remain similarly situated to our north on Monday, and the subtropical ridge axis will nose in from the Atlantic more squarely across the Keys. Chance PoPs will remain in the forecast for Monday, with the highest chances over our southeast Gulf waters. The subtropical ridge axis will lift north a little to South Florida on Monday night.
/issued 234 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019/ (Tonight and Monday) A weak cold frontal boundary has moved south of the San Angelo area this afternoon, as winds turned to the northeast between 1 and 2 PM at area sites across the Concho Valley, and temperatures cooled a degree or two. Temperatures tomorrow should be similar to today for areas south of I-20, and a few degrees warmer across the Big Country. Lows tonight should bottom out in the low 70s most areas.
On Monday scattered showers and isolated storms along coastal areas in the morning will shift east to interior/eastern sections of the peninsula during the afternoon where the highest rain chances and storm coverage will again reside as mid level troughing over the east central Gulf and high pressure over the Atlantic maintains a moist deep layered southwest wind flow across the forecast area. High pressure across the Florida Straits will maintain a light southwest to west wind flow around 10 knots with seas of 2 feet or less across the Gulf waters the remainder of tonight into Monday.
the atmosphere is characterized by greater boundary layer moisture with surface dewpoints in the 60s in central ND to the low 70s in the James River Valley. Otherwise will generally follow the latest CAM trends and look for convective initiation from east central Montana through west central North Dakota along some leftover outflow boundaries and a relative moist plume with surface dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s. Sunshine has allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 80s southwest but dewpoints have fallen there into the lower 50s. The best chance will be toward the weekend when an upper low will move inland and bring backing flow aloft, to teh southwest, better moisture return.
719 PM PDT Sun Aug 4 2019 High pressure returns with warming temperatures through mid week.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop late tonight into Tuesday as a cold front pushes through the area. Meanwhile, a cold front dropping out of the Northern Plains will trigger thunderstorms across Minnesota/Iowa this afternoon and evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into Tuesday as the cold front pushes through Illinois. In addition, a secondary weak cold front will quickly pass through central Illinois.
Tonight Through Tuesday Upper high pressure will remain over the southwest U.
The pattern this morning is rather reminiscent of past days given H5 western Atlantic and Four Corners ridging while an H5 trough prevails across the eastern CONUS (generally oriented along the Appalachians). However, the axis of the trough continues to slowly shift east, and should setup across the Carolinas by day's end. Moving on into the remainder of the day, the deeper moisture axis will remain tied to the aforementioned trough axis as it advects east. Therefore did included chance/likely pops across the higher terrain this afternoon, tapering down sharply into the evening as moisture advects out. Temperatures on Monday will be a few degrees warmer than recent days, generally right around normal.
An upper ridge will remain anchored near or over the region for the next several days. Much of the week ahead looks dry with the exception of isolated storms in the higher terrain during the afternoons and early evenings.
Diurnal heating will also likely renew storm development along the cold front and any outflows from the morning convection.
Dew points should drop into the 60s on Tuesday afternoon and early evening a a weak narrow ridge of high pressure follows the frontal passage.
In the mid-levels, a high-amplitude ridge will remain anchored over the four corners region as will the Bermuda High over the Atlantic. This will keep the southeastern CONUS in a broad troughing region.
This may result in our "warmest" day of the week with much of the valley peaking in the lower to perhaps mid 90s.
After midnight there are some hints that at least a shower mention is warranted from around McCook to Burlington where the leading edge of an upper trough and some mid level moisture produce some light qpf. High temperatures will be a little cooler compared to the past few days with highs generally 90 to 95.
A cold front will move through this evening, tied to low pressure over Ontario. Northwest flow aloft will dominate with an upper low to our north.
1035 PM PDT Sun Aug 4 2019 High pressure returns with warming temperatures through mid week.
131 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2019 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough off the west coast, a deep trough over the ern U. , a trough in the Canadian Prairies and a ridge over the plains and Rocky Mountains this morning. The trough over the Canadian Prairies will head southeast and affect the upper Great Lakes this forecast period. A trough of low pressure and dynamics will come in this evening and start kicking off some convection and this will overspread the area on Mon.
Similar weather can be expected today as an upper trough lingers across the region. Highest POPs in the forecast will be in the Pine Belt, where coverage may be a bit better thanks to better moisture and proximity to the upper trough. With perhaps lower coverage of storms, highs today will reach into the lower 90s. Any convection that develops will diminish through the evening once again, resulting in a muggy night with overnight lows in the lower 70s.
The surface wind will become southwesterly on Monday with slightly warmer and more humid conditions expected. GKS The threat for convection will continue Tuesday and Tuesday evening as an upper level trough deepens over the Great Lakes region sending a cold front southeastward through our forecast area.
347 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019 Fog will be mentioned across much of central into southeast Oklahoma early this morning, near and east of weak warm front where t/td depressions are approaching zero.
1145 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2019 High pressure over the Midwest will give way to a cold front pushing southeast Monday Night and Tuesday. Better chances for precip actually start on Monday night with a front dropping into the region in association with an upper low moving across Hudson Bay.