Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
220 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 High pressure should bring some sunshine and a dry Saturday with temperatures at or below the late September normals. That changes late tonight/Sunday as low level warming starts to surge in from the southwest, ahead of a warm front also advancing northward. Areas of showers should be the result, persisting until the warm front pushes north (toward 12z Mon).
As far as temperatures are concerned, highs today may actually be a few degrees cooler in the west owing to more cloud cover by afternoon and that small chance of precipitation. With more sunshine, highs on Sunday are forecast to climb into the lower 90s across the entire region.
The main wx feature for this hot forecast period will be a strong upper level high setting up shop directly over the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.
The period will start off with an amplified western trough/eastern ridge pattern. The ridge will remain centered over the southeastern CONUS through midweek, slowly drifting to the north during that time. This should keep our area largely under the influence of the upper ridge, with most of the precipitation staying to our north.
248 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 Tstms assocd with a shrtwv trof lifting newd across NM have begun to weaken while leaving an outflow boundary across the PB. RAP13/HRRR indicate storms will be a little farther e into the PB than NAM12/GFS and we will side toward the high resolution solutions. A similar set-up Sun PM, but high temps will be a couple of degrees cooler. The ewd extent of the moist axis will be modulated by the presence of anomalously strong mid-level anticyclone (1-3 sigma) to the e.
Some isolated convection will also be possible across the East Texas terminals and at KSHV, but only included it at KLFK where confidence is the highest attm. Low temperatures will warm into the lower 70s area-wide as a result. The upper level ridge will strengthen and retrograde west over the Four State Region Saturday night. The increase in subsidence and moist surface conditions will result in low temperatures warming slightly into the low to mid 70s.
444 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2019 High pressure stretches southwest along the Eastern Seaboard, just downstream from a building mid to upper-level ridge complex centered over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Moderate easterly breezes across the island chain have maintained temperatures in the lower 80s. A deep and well-stacked anticyclone will develop over the northern Gulf Coast and southeastern United States today through Sunday. Meanwhile, a long-wave, mid to upper-level trough axis just to the east of Florida will stretch southward through the Bahamas. Broad troughiness will develop over Hispaniola within the southeastern flank of the trough axis.
Upper air analysis and water vapor imagery places a ridge of high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico with troughing across much of the western United States. At the surface, ridge of high pressure was off-shore the Mid-Atlantic while a cold front stretched from the Great Lakes SW through the Central/Southern Plains. On Saturday, upper level heights begin to increase in response to a strengthening ridge in the Gulf of Mexico. Models generate QPF mainly along the higher terrain. Carried the highest PoPs across the higher terrain of the Southern Appalachians. By Sunday morning a deep upper trough will have settled into the Pacific Northwest, while a strong ridge develops downstream over the central Gulf states and north into areas stretching from the lower Mississippi River eastward to the Tennessee Valley.
1028 PM PDT Fri Sep 27 2019 A powerful cold front will bring strong north winds, much cooler temperatures, heavy mountain snow and a rain-snow mix into the northern valleys this weekend.
Weak upper level ridging will keep most of our region dry through Sunday night. Included slight chances for showers in these areas for these time periods, with chances ending by Sunday afternoon as the upper level ridge strengthens and the front moves farther north. The NBM (National Blend of Models) has lessened a cooler bias, as collective guidance has picked up on anomalous high thicknesses with the southeast U.
1008 PM PDT Fri Sep 27 2019 A powerful cold front will bring strong north winds, much cooler temperatures, heavy mountain snow and a rain-snow mix into the northern valleys this weekend.
Summer and Fall seasons will clash through the upcoming week with big swings in temperatures expected before a much cooler pattern arrives by the weekend. Surface cold front is forecast to settle southeast across the lower Great Lakes into north central PA between 18Z Sat and 00Z Sun. Storms are most likely to form along the cold front and also near pre-frontal/lee-side trough. Plenty of sunshine combined with downslope WSW-SSW flow ahead of cold front should afford a favorable opportunity to front-run MOS guidance and trend maxT higher by several degrees. An afternoon shower is possible over the Laurel Highlands, as some moisture tries to sneak northward along the higher terrain of SW PA.
1128 PM MDT Fri Sep 27 2019 As a front sweeps across the high plains, rain showers are moving over southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. A few scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible throughout the day tomorrow but max temperatures will be a little bit warmer than today in the 60s and 70s. Predicted 12 hour height changes are as high as -20 indicative of a strong system and deep upper level trough. This strong trough will advect a much colder air mass into the northwestern CONUS resulting in heavy snow in the higher elevations of northwestern Wyoming and southwestern Montana. This cold air mass has already dropped temperatures in northern Montana and southwestern Canada below freezing.
/issued 400 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019/ Early morning sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the wrn Atlantic continuing to provide an onshore low-level flow over the forecast area at this time. After a nice run of dry weather, global model QPF solutions and high res model reflectivity progs are in agreement with widely scattered shower/thunderstorm development through today primarily across the wrn 1/2 of the forecast as increasing low-level moisture around the periphery of the nern Gulf ridge interacts with less capping.
Otherwise, another hot day is expected with temperatures climbing back into the lower 90s and topping out in the mid 90s at some locations.
High pressure will continue to dominate, for the next 24 hours. Temperatures warmer than usual early Fall temperatures will continue.
Abundant low and mid level moisture will support widespread showers today and tonight as an upper level low moves from the Pacific Northwest into Montana.
For the remainder of the weekend, the aforementioned upr rdg wl cont to bld WWD into the Mid-South, with dry and even warmer conds expected.
651 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 The September 28-29 12 UTC TAF discussion follows: A cold front across northwest/north central Oklahoma may progress slightly to the south before lifting back to the north. Southerly winds are expected to persist south of the cold front. However, a secondary branch of DPVA within the elongated trough will also move over the panhandles late this afternoon into this evening along with fairly significant WAA lifting northward. This axis will remain present all week and several mid level perturbations are expected to pass between the subtropical ridge to our east and deep trough over the NW CONUS.
408 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 Abundant low and mid level moisture will support widespread showers today and tonight as an upper level low moves from the Pacific Northwest into Montana.
429 AM MDT Sat Sep 28 2019 Water vapor shows upper trof digging along the west coast with upper low over western WA. Warm front pushing through will result in much warmer temps, with 80s south and east of the Black Hills. Unsettled conditions expected through midweek with a gradual cooling trend as western CONUS trof nudges eastward.
A deep and cold trough will set up over the Great Basin this weekend. Widespread precipitation and much cooler temperatures will impact northern Utah and southwest Wyoming, with windy conditions expected across the southern and eastern Utah.
High pressure over the region, along with mostly clear skies and light winds has allowed temperatures to fall into the mid 30s, to the low 40s. A strong area of low pressure should be situated over western Nebraska Sunday afternoon with southerly flow into eastern SD. Instability will gradually advect into our area as the warm front advects northward.
600 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 High pressure should bring some sunshine and a dry Saturday with temperatures at or below the late September normals. That changes late tonight/Sunday as low level warming starts to surge in from the southwest, ahead of a warm front also advancing northward. Areas of showers should be the result, persisting until the warm front pushes north (toward 12z Mon).
However, a secondary branch of DPVA within the elongated trough will also move over the panhandles late this afternoon into this evening along with fairly significant WAA lifting northward. This axis will remain present all week and several mid level perturbations are expected to pass between the subtropical ridge to our east and deep trough over the NW CONUS.
High pressure offshore the mid Atlantic coast extending southwest across north Florida will maintain a northeast to easterly wind flow around 10 knots across the Gulf waters the remainder of today with an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast during the afternoon.
642 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2019 High pressure will be over the area today and Sunday.
811 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2019 High pressure will be over the area through Sunday.
555 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 The cold front over the northern Texas Panhandle is expected to get really close to the AMA TAF site before it dissipates later this morning.
/issued 321 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2019/ Broad mid level ridging is currently sprawled across eastern Florida and the Gulf of Mexico as an upper level low east of Florida drifts north and away from the Bahamas. At the surface, the subtropical ridge of high pressure centered off the Mid- Atlantic coast extends southwest across northern Florida, setting up generally easterly flow. With this ridging at the surface and aloft, stable and generally rain free conditions will continue today and tonight. The mid level ridge will gradually build over the southeastern US during the first half of the week, while strong surface ridging holds just north of Florida.
/issued 248 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019/ Tstms assocd with a shrtwv trof lifting newd across NM have begun to weaken while leaving an outflow boundary across the PB. RAP13/HRRR indicate storms will be a little farther e into the PB than NAM12/GFS and we will side toward the high resolution solutions. A similar set-up Sun PM, but high temps will be a couple of degrees cooler. The ewd extent of the moist axis will be modulated by the presence of anomalously strong mid-level anticyclone (1-3 sigma) to the e.
A strong cold front will push south across the area later today bringing much cooler temperatures, light showers over the Southern Sierra Nevada and strong winds over the Kern County Mountains and Deserts through the weekend.
Currently, a few isolated shra are moving across portions of the southern valley as well as a few areas across the high terrain of both southwest NC and southwest VA. CAMs continue to suggest little if any development west of I75, with iso/sct shra and tsra over the high terrain as heating builds this afternoon. Chattanooga Airport, TN 95 70 95 71 / 10 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 70 94 70 / 10 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 92 68 93 69 / 10 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 65 89 66 / 20 0 20 10.
Temperatures tonight will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s with daytime highs on Sunday again climbing into the lower 90s.
Sunday night, the warm front will lift north across the area, bringing another round of showers/storms.
Once this system move to the northwest and north overnight, the back-building ridge from the southeast United States will push northwest into the WFO PAH forecast area, gradually increasing thicknesses each day.
1139 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 High pressure should bring some sunshine and a dry Saturday with temperatures at or below the late September normals. That changes late tonight/Sunday as low level warming starts to surge in from the southwest, ahead of a warm front also advancing northward. Areas of showers should be the result, persisting until the warm front pushes north (toward 12z Mon).
Still not out of the question to see a few strong storms across portions of northeast OK, although the higher severe thunderstorm chances look to remain just north of the OK/KS border.
1237 PM EDT Sat Sep 28 2019 High pressure will be over the area through Sunday.
254 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 Current surface map shows a ridge of high pressure across ND/northern MN extending across our northeastern counties.
157 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 Focus continues to be the strong upper high and its impact on very warm surface temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal averages, as well as continued dry conditions.
High pressure to remain in control with above normal temperatures and settled conditions to continue for the first half of the upcoming work week.
A cold front moved south of the forecast area last night but had begun to push back to the north as a warm front by late this morning as a midlevel wave approached the region from the southwest. Dewpoints are expected to warm into the 70s once again, yielding heat index values in the low 90s.
Overnight lows will be above average across the region with most areas falling only into the low 70s.
With southerlies reestablished, low level moisture has overspread the entire forecast area with dewpoints running generally in the low 70s. Area remains dominated by high pressure at the surface and aloft.
Yet another hot day is in store, with highs in the low to mid 90s. High pressure is firmly in control once again across Middle TN.
348 PM EDT Sat Sep 28 2019 A strong cold front was moving south across northern Indiana. The front will become stationary tonight and then begin moving north as a warm front.
Upper air analysis this morning showed the subtropical ridge centered over the Gulf with west-southwesterly flow over Texas. The subtropical ridge will strengthen over Texas during this period. Despite the upper ridge over us, deep, moist flow from the south to southeast in the low levels will mean chances for rain during this period.
/issued 651 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019/ The September 28-29 12 UTC TAF discussion follows: A cold front across northwest/north central Oklahoma may progress slightly to the south before lifting back to the north. Southerly winds are expected to persist south of the cold front. However, a secondary branch of DPVA within the elongated trough will also move over the panhandles late this afternoon into this evening along with fairly significant WAA lifting northward. This axis will remain present all week and several mid level perturbations are expected to pass between the subtropical ridge to our east and deep trough over the NW CONUS.
1149 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2019 High pressure will be over the area through Sunday.
Yet another hot day is in store, with highs in the low to mid 90s.
228 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 Persistent moist pattern will continue the next 7 days as a strong upper level ridge remains anchored over the eastern half of the nation with a large upper level trough across the west. Storms will be favored in the western half of the forecast area this evening and Sunday furthest away from the ridge.
350 PM EDT Sat Sep 28 2019 As a cold front crosses the region, scattered thunderstorms are expected through early evening.
1118 AM MDT Sat Sep 28 2019 Water vapor shows upper trof digging along the west coast with upper low over western WA. Warm front pushing through will result in much warmer temps, with 80s south and east of the Black Hills. Unsettled conditions expected through midweek with a gradual cooling trend as western CONUS trof nudges eastward.
Lee troughing will deepen across eastern Colorado tomorrow which will increase the pressure gradient across western Kansas. As for temperatures, lows tonight look to range from the lower 60s across west central Kansas to upper 60s across south central Kansas.
Because of mostly cloudy skies on Sunday, afternoon highs should climb into the lower 90s.
Watching the midlevel dryslot working northeast slowly across the area as the upper trough moving down out of the Pacific Northwest digs eastward. Sunday looks to be warmer and windier (especially in the west). We will continue with the High Wind Watch for western Carbon County where some gusts to near 60 mph will be possible by the afternoon hours.
As stg upper ridge builds wwd into area, this window of instability will be erased and any convection will be very hard to come by for remainder of the wknd. With likely reduced wind speeds and less cloud cover, expect aftn highs to easily reach the lower to possible mid 90s, especially across portions of nrn LA.
Aloft, an upper level low (Karen's carcass) drifts westward toward the FL peninsula, carrying a more moist airmass with it, sending forecast PW values above 2.
246 PM EDT Sat Sep 28 2019 As a cold front crosses the region, scattered thunderstorms are expected through early evening.
Current surface map shows a ridge of high pressure across ND/northern MN extending across our northeastern counties.
An unseasonably strong low pressure system currently near the Pacific Northwest is digging into the northern Great Basin through the weekend. We'll catch the far southern influence of the associated trough with breezy southwesterly winds.
An increase in clouds can be expected overnight as a nearly stationary front across Illinois gets pushed north as a warm front.
VFR expected across all TAF sites tonight as high pressure continues to hold over the area. High pressure expected to rebuild on Sunday with slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. With southerlies reestablished, low level moisture has overspread the entire forecast area with dewpoints running generally in the low 70s. Area remains dominated by high pressure at the surface and aloft.
The higher elevations of western Garfield County and the Big Sheep Mountains may also see a brief change over to snow overnight tonight. Sunday, the cold air advection will be strong enough that the rain/snow line will retreat only slightly northward through the "warmer" part of the day, allowing snow to accumulate more for these areas.
Showers continue over much of the area this evening, with the majority of the activity over the higher elevations. These are associated with a large upper level low centered over north-central Oregon as of 8 pm MDT (7 pm PDT).
Rest of tonight: A dry & quiet evening is in store, with a persistent surface & synoptic ridging regime & subsidence.
930 PM EDT Sat Sep 28 2019 Another quiet and mild night in store a high pres ridge extending from the Mid Atlc acrs the Deep South maintains a deep and steady E/NE breeze acrs central FL. However, distribution thru the low/mid lvls are rather sparse with H100-H70 mean RH values btwn 60-70pct and H85-H50 avg dewpoint depressions arnd 15C.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 95 71 95 / 10 10 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 94 70 93 / 10 10 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 69 93 68 93 / 0 10 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 90 66 89 / 10 20 0 20.
717 PM EDT Sat Sep 28 2019 High pressure will be over the area through Sunday.
633 PM EDT Sat Sep 28 2019 As a cold front crosses the region, scattered thunderstorms are expected through early evening.
Despite the high clouds streaming in, temperatures were generally in the lower to middle 90s. Highs on the day should top out in the lower-mid 90s with temperatures dropping back into the 80s by mid evening along with winds subsiding quickly as we get towards sunset. However, most of the high resolution models keep the best chances of convection across the plateau region of TN into the high terrain of SE KY. Highs look to top out in the low to middle 90s once again. A large dome of high pressure over the southeast U.
846 PM EDT Sat Sep 28 2019 A crossing cold front will end residual showers for areas south of Pittsburgh by midnight. Mainly dry weather is expected Sunday under building high pressure.
High pressure will continue to build into the region through the period with widespread VFR conditions expected.
A broad lower to mid level ridge is centered over the eastern United States while an upper level high is centered in the Gulf of Mexico. Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to dominate Keys weather overnight. High pressure to our north will maintain moderate to fresh breezes across most Keys waters overnight.
802 PM EDT Sat Sep 28 2019 Latest RAP model has mid level ridging centered over the southern MS/AL line dominating the Gulf region over night while high pressure south of the Canadian Maritimes stretches across the southeast U. High pressure along the eastern seaboard into the Gulf of Mexico will slowly strengthen during the next few days with east and northeast winds. This high pressure will begin to relax later in the week and allow winds and seas to to diminish.
Focus continues to be the strong upper high and its impact on very warm surface temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal averages, as well as continued dry conditions.
1045 PM EDT Sat Sep 28 2019 A cold front will push southeast of the region tonight.
527 PM EDT Sat Sep 28 2019 A crossing cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms into this evening. Mainly dry weather is expected Sunday under building high pressure. No major alterations were needed for the eve update as a cold front will cross the Upr OH this eve spawning scattered showers and a few storms with passage.
It'll certainly be warmer in these areas than in the west (Phillips and Petroleum Counties) or along the Canadian border. The higher elevations of western Garfield County and the Big Sheep Mountains may also see a brief change over to snow overnight tonight. Sunday, the cold air advection will be strong enough that the rain/snow line will retreat only slightly northward through the "warmer" part of the day, allowing snow to accumulate more for these areas.
Models continue to show the low level jet kicking in overnight which will aid in the development of MVFR cigs across the I-35 corridor between 06z and 08z tonight and Sunday morning. Upper air analysis this morning showed the subtropical ridge centered over the Gulf with west-southwesterly flow over Texas. The subtropical ridge will strengthen over Texas during this period. Despite the upper ridge over us, deep, moist flow from the south to southeast in the low levels will mean chances for rain during this period.
315 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 While the low levels are seeing chilly northeast to east flow north of the surface warm front this morning, winds aloft are continuing to pump tropical moisture northward, resulting in widespread rain, and where mesoscale features combined with synoptic lift, some thunderstorms with very heavy rain. Today, the models are consistent in moving the warm front north through the day, but I am hesitant of that, as the slightly north of east flow is carrying Lake Michigan air with it, thus combined with stratus, we may be cool and cloudy over the north 2/3 today. I will slightly undercut guidance for now, but be ready for a substantial update if the 06z runs arrive cooler. Tonight, the warm front aloft will be north, thus the rains should be north of our area tonight.
Sunday night, the warm front will lift north across the area, bringing another round of showers/storms. Have some concerns that forecast highs may not be warm enough for Monday given the strength of the low level warm advection. Depending on the strength of the cap in the warm sector, storm development could be delayed until the cold front nears later Monday night.
This is likely in response to some good warm air advection as the low level southerly flow begins its return to the area for Sunday.