Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Another quiet and cool night is in store with high pressure in control. lows tonight should be a bit warmer. Chattanooga Airport, TN 45 75 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 44 74 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 44 74 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 40 74 41 76 / 0 0 0 0.
Thus, trended above the 12 UTC consensus for highs on Thursday, with highs in the mid 70s to the lower 80s.
temps should drop into the low to mid 30s in this area. Thursday will be very quiet with weak upper ridging moving into the upper midwest.
High pressure continues to prevail across the region. In the wake of this wave, a ridge will build over the Southeast, slowly shifting east as the weekend approaches.
This system will move out into the southern High Plains by Thursday night while a lee trough strengthens across eastern Colorado.
Otherwise, temperatures will continue to modify with the main high pressure area to the northeast, shifting east.
This will dissipate the mountain wave with a dry cold front bringing increasing NNE winds over the eastern plains. upper level flow will turn more SW with an incoming trough over the Great Basin by thursday morning. Upper level flow is characterized by 500 mb trough moving through the region through the weekend, transitioning to northwest flow for the remainder of the forecast period. Starting Thursday night a weak upper trough will pass through Colorado in southwest flow ahead of the mean trough, however moisture is limited and only a few clouds will result.
Temperatures will continue to remain above seasonal for this time of year before the cold front arrives this weekend.
924 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017 High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern across the TN Valley this evening. Expect this trend to continue through the remainder of the overnight period, with lows bottoming out in the lower 40s by daybreak. Once the fog dissipates on Thursday morning, little change in the weather is expected on Thursday as a synoptic ridge builds from the NW Gulf of Mexico to the Southeast as a pair of troughs amplify over the Intermountain West. Daytime high temperatures may be a degree or two warmer on Thursday with this ridge building and the resultant deep southerly flow.
Strong area of low pressure remains centered over Central Manitoba. with a trailing cold front thru the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Central Plains states. Temps have warmed well into the 60s to near 70 degrees across our CWA this afternoon thanks to strengthening WAA via this S/SW low level flow ahead of the upstream cold front. Cold front will reach our NW CWA by around midnight or so. Winds will shift around to the west in the wake of the front and will diminish as the low level pressure gradient loosens. Temps will be cooler in comparison to today.
Some gusty winds are possible over the higher terrain of Phillips County, where gusts could be 20 to 30 mph. AEH Flat zonal ridge will move across the area tonight and exit into the Dakotas Thursday morning. Thursday: Flow aloft will swing from a westerly direction into a more southerly direction as a high pressure ridge moves to the east and an upper trough moves inland from the Pacific NW. A thermal ridge is forecast to build back over Montana allowing for a rapid rebound in high temperatures mainly in the 70s.
It will be another quiet TAF period with high pressure in control.
Expect more sunshine than recent days with highs into the lower 80s Volusia coast to the mid 80s interior and srn sections.
Surface gradient wind will average 5-15 knots before the upstream cold front arrives Thursday morning. Boundary layer will remain mixed through tonight as the approaching front attendant to the cyclone over central Canada approaches from the west and ensures overnight lows are contained to values no lower than this morning's obs. Minor suppression of the thermal field will primarily influence the northern half of the CWA, where highs will be a few degrees cooler than today in the mid 60s.
Sprawling high pressure centered in western NC was providing sunny skies and southerly winds across the dvn cwa. Mid afternoon temperatures were very pleasant, mainly in the lower 70s.
1145 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017 High pressure over the area will persist overnight with light southwest winds.
927 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 Yet another inverted coastal trough offshore will move towards the southeast Georgia/northeast Florida coast this evening. A lull in coastal showers is expected after midnight as the first trough moves inland with only a few isolated light showers possible near the coast. This combined with lighter winds will allow for cooler temperatures across these areas. The breezy onshore flow coupled with marine stratocumulus clouds and shower activity will keep coastal areas much warmer. Prevailing ceiling heights should lift into the low VFR range Thursday morning.
1025 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 High pressure will yield plenty of sunshine and mild temperatures over the next few days. Mid-Atlantic high pressure will keep our weather clear and mild through Thursday night. A weak frontal system attached to a Canadian cyclone will track across Northern NY on Thursday. With dry antecedent conditions in place, precipitation is not anticipated over our forecast area with the cold front, which is expected to knock temperatures down a degree or two for late Thursday. Ridging builds back in behind Thursday's front bringing dry and warmer air back into the region.
515 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017 Overview: 1019 mb high pressure (centered over southwest SD/northwest NE at 19Z) will build southward into the Tri-State region this afternoon through tonight. Through Tonight: Expect 0 chance for precipitation through tonight with ridging aloft and an extremely dry airmass characterized by dewpoint depressions on the order of 60-65F this afternoon.
Winds will not be as strong tomorrow, as at the surface we will have weak ridging and winds will not be as strong aloft so that even though we should mix fairly well, the speeds are not there to mix down.
With the exiting ridge and incoming trough, the pressure gradient across the region will be tight through the early evening before weakening by sunrise. Areas that see cloud cover will see warmer morning temperatures than surrounding locations. Locations that see less cloud coverage and lighter winds, could see temperatures dip into the lower 50s, especially in low- lying areas and along river valleys. The upper level trough will continue to deepen and move across western Texas through the day on Thursday.
Another quiet and cool fall night is in store tonight with a surface anticyclone over the Appalachians keeping the region dry underneath a modified continental polar airmass. So, temperatures should drop off quickly after sunset and reach into the low to mid 40s by Thursday morning. This may occur as a result of warm water interacting with the cooler airmass. Once the fog dissipates on Thursday morning, little change in the weather is expected on Thursday as a synoptic ridge builds from the NW Gulf of Mexico to the Southeast as a pair of troughs amplify over the Intermountain West. Daytime high temperatures may be a degree or two warmer on Thursday with this ridge building and the resultant deep southerly flow.
High pressure will continue to rule the roost over the next few days and while we'll start to see some southerly boundary layer flow, it won't be that strong, so we'll only warm up a couple of degrees each day.
The wind pattern will continue through early morning before the upstream cold front arrives. Boundary layer will remain mixed through tonight as the approaching front attendant to the cyclone over central Canada approaches from the west and ensures overnight lows are contained to values no lower than this morning's obs. Minor suppression of the thermal field will primarily influence the northern half of the CWA, where highs will be a few degrees cooler than today in the mid 60s.
We already are seeing dewpoints 10-15 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Showers should progress towards the coast through the morning hours on the nose of the higher PWATs traversing the western Gulf.
751 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 High pressure will drift off to the southeast tonight and Thursday as a weak cold front approaches from the west.
502 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017 UPDATED AVIATION Breezy west to southwest winds will increase late today and tonight across North Central Montana with windy and warmer conditions returning Thursday.
The upper-level flow is forecast to amplify significantly over the lower 48 states from the nearly zonal flow that exists now.
/issued 714 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017/ Showers continue to spread across the area as a cold front boundary settles over South Florida.
1225 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 High pressure will drift off to the southeast tonight and Thursday as a weak cold front approaches from the west.
Temperatures are near 80 degrees, and dew points are in the low to mid 70s. Nearby sea surface temperatures in the low to mid 80s. However, a convective trigger in the low to mid atmospheric levels is lacking.
731 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 High pressure will yield plenty of sunshine and mild temperatures over the next few days. Mid-Atlantic high pressure will keep our weather clear and mild through Thursday night. A weak frontal system attached to a Canadian cyclone will track across Northern NY on Thursday. With dry antecedent conditions in place, precipitation is not anticipated over our forecast area with the cold front, which is expected to knock temperatures down a degree or two for late Thursday. Ridging builds back in behind Thursday's front bringing dry and warmer air back into the region.
Tonight will be very pleasant, especially across the Nature Coast where clear skies and lower moisture will help bring temperatures into the low-mid 60s. Strong high pressure to our north will maintain persistent northeast winds of 15-20 knots with higher gusts and waves of 3-5 feet off the coast. By the end of this weekend, winds should begin to relax some as high pressure slides off to our east and winds veer to a more southerly component. A cold front will then approach the area early in the work week with the potential of high winds and seas by mid week.
Warm temperatures will continue on Thursday ahead of a Pacific cold front. Breezy conditions will also develop in southeast Oregon and the higher terrain of southwest Idaho.
536 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017 Upper level analysis has fast moving upper trof across central Canada, with ridge rebuilding across the western CONUS. At the surface, high pressure has moved into the Northern Plains, with the weak cold front now well south and east of the area. Lee trof is quickly redeveloping across Wyoming and Montana. Upper ridge will rebuild for the latter half of the week, and strong southwesterly boundary layer flow will help temperatures climb into the 70s and 80s.
In the wake of this wave, a ridge will build over the Southeast, slowly shifting east as the weekend approaches.
1059 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017 Weak high pressure ridge over the center of the country and up the Mississippi River Valley. The high-resolution short range models do have it settling across the Peoria/Bloomington areas toward 9-10 am, before stalling out.
High pressure will build into the region tonight through Wednesday night. A cold front will approach from the west late in the week.
High pressure brings drier weather on Wednesday but unsettled pattern returns to end the week.
At the surface, Low pressure was located across the Nebraska panhandle with a weak trof extending north into eastern Montana. Area of low pressure and associated frontal boundary will slide slowly east along the SD/NE border today, with the best instability this afternoon into this evening across southern SD into NE. The best chance for a few strong to severe storms will be southeast of the Black Hills and especially near the low pressure area along the NE border. The rest of the week and the weekend look drier and warmer as weak ridging and drier westerly flow will be in place across the region.
409 AM PDT Tue Aug 15 2017 A trough of low pressure over the western states will maintain stronger onshore flow today into Wednesday with gusty southwest to west winds in the mountains and deserts.
Some of the high res models were developing showers this afternoon over most of the area. Clearing skies will allow temperatures to get a few degrees warmer than yesterday with temps in the upper 70s to low 80s expected. Warming and drying trend continues tomorrow with low-level ridging building in and westerly flow aloft.
07z sfc analysis shows general low pressure through the area with high dewpoint air in place. Winds are light with temperatures fairly uniform in the lower 70s most places along with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Heights will be on a slowly increasing trends ahead of the next main trough developing over the Pacific Northwest and inland to the Northern Plains. High dewpoints tonight will mean a repeat with mild temperatures, not much ridge to valley distinctions, and more patchy/areas of non-terrain discriminating fog.
High temps returning to the low 90s with high humidity will result in heat indices in the 100 to 105 degree range.
615 AM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017 A series of short wave troughs that have been moving through the base of the main upper trough over the intermountain region begin lifting out east of the Rockies today and across the Central High Plains over the Plains states from tonight through Wednesday evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue across the area through the day on Wednesday as the short wave troughs aloft continue to lift across the region with some stabilization of the atmosphere Wednesday night in the wake of the exiting upper short wave trough. The remainder of the upper trough over the western U.
In the low to mid levels of the atmosphere, an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across South Florida this afternoon. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, an area of high pressure will be centered near the southeastern coast of the United States.
643 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a low amplitude ridge across the central CONUS. West of this feature, a closed low was located over western Alberta, with a trough extending sw of this feature into northern Nevada. Will continue with thunderstorm chances overnight with the highest pops in the east.
656 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017 The highest probability for storms will occur across the central high plains this afternoon and evening. There may also be an attempt across southern Kansas with a remnant Storms may be ongoing early in the period on Wednesday with redevelopment along a southward advancing cold front on Wed afternoon.
1007 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 Subtropical ridge axis remains across south Florida with a southwest to west low level flow across the region. Subtropical ridge axis over south Florida and the southeast Gulf of Mexico today will move slowly north toward the central Florida peninsula during the midweek and remain there into the weekend. The ridge position over the region will continue the forecast of light winds and seas through the week.
A little warmer today but still a few degrees below normal as upper trough remains over the northwest states. A weak embedded short wave trough will provide enough instability for a slight chance of thunderstorms in southern Malheur County this afternoon and evening. A little warmer again Wednesday as the main upper trough fills and shifts to our east.
1001 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a low amplitude ridge across the central CONUS. West of this feature, a closed low was located over western Alberta, with a trough extending sw of this feature into northern Nevada.
The upper level ridge is moving to the east this morning and an upper level wave will be affecting the area this afternoon and tonight. The result is similar whether the front moves to the north as a warm front today, or whether it just washes out and another front develops to the northwest of the forecast area this afternoon. global models are in fairly good agreement at the start of the extended periods lifting a broad trough of low pressure across the local area Wednesday. As the aforementioned upper level trough then shifts east later in the week. things get a bit more interesting as a weak ridge followed by more zonal flow is forecast by the extended models.
/TW/ Today through tonight: The ArkLaMiss continues to remain in westerly flow on the northern side of a subtropical ridge situated in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The subtropical ridging over the Gulf will begin to build into the area during the day and will act to displace the perturbed westerly flow and channeled vorticity further north into Tennessee. The main headline for today will continue to be heat stress issues as temps rising into the low 90s combined with mid to upper 70s dewpoints will result in heat index values around 105 degrees. For tonight, any diurnal convection should dissipate fairly quickly after sunset with overnight lows staying mild in the low to mid 70s.
High pressure with little or no clouds has resulted in cool temperatures across the region this morning. The Boorman RAWS located on the northern shore of the Little Bitterroot Lake was sitting at 35 degrees and could fall to freezing around dawn.
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 Sfc analysis and morning Cape sounding shows a stronger westerly flow in the low levels compared to yesterday.
1222 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 Hot and humid Atlantic high pressure will remain in control as troughing persists across the Mid-Atlantic and inland into late week. A cold front may approach the area this weekend. Wednesday: Hot and relatively rain-free weather is on tap Wednesday under ridging aloft and westerly/downsloping 850 mb flow.
A weak cold front will approach the area from the northwest this afternoon and stall across the region tonight into Wednesday.
The upper trough which will help to end convection Wednesday morning will also send a boundary across the Panhandles.
Windy again in the mountains and deserts as a trough of low pressure moves across the region.
1007 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 Update A weak cold front will produce scattered showers this morning before moving south of the area this afternoon.
Given the expected sunshine and 850mb temperature trends from 00z Tuesday to 00z Wednesday the highs today will be at least as warm as yesterday, most likely a couple of degree warmer. The previous forecast with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s still looks closer to what we will have than the slightly cooler guidance so will stay close to the previous forecast for highs today. An area of low pressure will be deepening across southeast Colorado late day as a surface boundary/warm front begins lifts north into extreme southwest Kansas. Some lingering convection will be possible early Wednesday morning as an upper level trough crosses the central Kansas. A cool dome of high pressure will build into western Kansas during the afternoon as a surface frontal boundary drops south across Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle.
An area of low pressure over the western states will provide a dry southwest flow for the Mojave Desert and southern Great Basin much of the week. As the main axis of the upper level trough swings through, clouds will continue to clear in its wake.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 73 89 75 / 30 20 40 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 71 88 72 / 40 20 30 30 Oak Ridge, TN 85 71 88 72 / 40 20 30 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 67 88 68 / 50 20 20 30.
The Pacific NW remains between an offshore ridge and a trough over the Rockies this morning with a northwesterly flow over our area. A few clouds will more across the ridge and through the area today but it should be partly cloudy at best. Temperatures today will be in the lower to mid 80s in the lower elevations and in the mid 70s to lower 80s in the mountains. Tonight will be mostly clear but warmer than last night with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s in the lower elevations and in the 40s and lower 50s in the mountains.
Some of the high resolution guidance is indicating this as well, showing better chances for pcpn by mid to late afternoon around Devils Lake, and by late afternoon into early evening for the Red River Valley.
and Wednesday A short wave trough with convection has departed east of the state early this morning. Otherwise Canadian high pressure building into the area from the north and an upper ridge sliding over the area will bring a period of quiet weather to the area today into tonight. Clouds will be on the increase Wednesday as a deeper upper trough approaches form the Plains. Forecast soundings suggest limited drying with the high pressure system today into tonight with the light variable or northeast flow so convection may work over the area a bit faster. Progs indicate minimal instability Wednesday afternoon so thunder may be more confined to the upper trough passage which would be in later periods.
1138 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 Hydro A weak cold front will produce scattered showers this morning before moving south of the area this afternoon.
broad troughing over the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains will persist for the next 18-24 hours, before near-zonal flow overspreads the region for the day on Wednesday.
An offshore ridge will bring warming to the interior for the second half of the week. An upper level trough will start to knock down temperatures this weekend.
545 AM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017 12Z TAF CYCLE Very dry air aloft moving into western and central NM this morning as an unseasonably deep upper level trof moves into the Great Basin.
A cold front will stall across southern Utah today.
Fairly typical August day on tap with a hot and humid conditions with highs pushing into the lower to mid 90s with a prevailing west to west-northwest low level flow.
However, some low clouds may try to move into AMA Wednesday morning in association with the trough. The upper trough which will help to end convection Wednesday morning will also send a boundary across the Panhandles.
751 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 Aviation A weak cold front will produce scattered showers this morning before moving south of the area this afternoon.
These appear to be firing along a secondary surface trof axis, associated with a very weak vort max aloft that trails the primary upper trof. Lows are likely to tank into the low to mid 50s most areas, with the colder low lying regions sneaking into the upper 40s for what should be a 30+ diurnal swing.
Central AL remains split between low level ridging to the southwest and the larger scale synoptic boundary to our north.
311 PM PDT Thu Aug 24 2017 Drying weather pattern and increasing temps are expected going into the weekend as high pressure builds over the Southwest.
143 PM PDT Thu Aug 24 2017 Below normal highs and a deep marine layer from upper-level low pressure will transition to above normal highs and a shallow marine layer from building high pressure aloft by this weekend.
Skies will then go clear with light winds as high pressure builds into the region overnight. This wave will also bring in more cooler air resulting in high temps only in the 60s to around 70 degrees today. High pressure coming down from Canada then builds in behind the departing trough as heights begin to build across the region. Lift along and ahead of this boundary and the cooler air left behind will create a favorable environment for waterspouts through this evening. High pressure will then settle overhead Friday and further inhibit cloud development. Wind and wave conditions will remain favorable through the weekend as the high pressure system drifts slowly across the Great Lakes.
1034 AM PDT Thu Aug 24 2017 A cold front will exit north Idaho this morning with showers coming to an end.
Medium to High Rather cool and dry high pressure building across WI. The high dominates on Friday though shifts a bit to our east. Some increase in mid clouds noted into the western cwa in closer proximity to the return flow around high while Bufkit shows cu potential with lingering influence of the low level thermal trough.