Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Steep low-level lapse rates will keep everything as snow even with temps solidly above freezing, but no accumulations or impacts expected. The cold front has pushed through the region this morning, though the much colder air is lagging a bit behind it. For the short term period, a broad upper level trough will establish itself across much of the eastern CONUS.
338 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 Main 500 mb trough moving south of the fcst area and a temporary 500 mb ridge and drier air at 850 mb is moving southeast. Question becomes how far east will it get? RRV and west should start out the day with some sunshine before additional stratocu drops south into NE ND and NW MN Friday aftn assoc with next 500 mb trough.
The upper pattern through the first half of the weekend will be dominated by a southwest to northeast longwave trough dividing the CONUS, with generally northerly flow at 500mb across the northern plains. We remain under the influence of this northwest flow trough for much of the day however, so clouds will persist with off and on flurries.
257 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 High pressure that is strengthening over the Great Basin has been teaming with intense low pressure centered over Central Quebec to keep a moderate but persistent NW flow across the Great Plains this afternoon. A sharp upper-deck longwave extending almost due west from the low centered over Quebec to the CA Coast will shift slowly S/SE, reaching the Southern U. Mon-Tue Night: It'll be a very nice start to the work-week as an upper-deck long wave trof deepens rapidly as it surges across the Southeastern U. Wed-Thu: Cooler but dry weather will dominate the region as semi-inverted & strengthening ridging continues to punch SE from the Northern Plains. Large scale upper troughing remains from the northeast CONUS into the Great Basin.
/Issued 315 AM EST Thu Jan 26 2017/ A cold front moving into n GA currently is forecast to move across the area through the morning. An upper trough moves over the OH to mid MS valleys on Friday increasing moisture and cloud potential for portions of n GA but the moisture should not be deep enough for any precip potential. large-scale upper trough still appears strong enough to potentially squeeze out some showers across the north.
This wave will be reinforced by much colder mid-level air later tonight and Friday, as an upper low briefly forms over central Arizona.
The passage of the vort max Friday morning could spread flurries as far south as Knoxville, and measurable snow accumulations will be possible in the higher elevations of SW VA and NE TN.
226 PM EST Thu Jan 26 2017 High pressure will continue to build into the CWA through Friday.
308 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 Series of upper troughs will be sweeping across the Midwest tonight and Friday, keeping the region generally cloudy and somewhat blustery at times. The troughs will be accompanied by some flurries or light snow showers, but these are expected to be of little consequence. The passage of the trough on Friday morning will be accompanied by a tongue of colder air around -12C at 850 mb, which will result in high temperatures a bit colder than today, mainly in the upper 20s/lower 30s. The longwave pattern will be dominated by an upper level trough in the eastern lower 48, with a ridge in the west.
As the cold front continues to slide east southeast, rain is also ending.
242 PM EST Thu Jan 26 2017 A series of low pressure troughs will bring colder temperatures and occasional snow showers this afternoon through the weekend. Some rain could also mix in across the lower elevations until sunset. Broad upper troughing should maintain scattered snow showers overnight for much of the area. Orographic lift and moisture in the snow growth region over the ridges should continue to result in more snow with an additional 2-4 inches. Orographic lifting with continued saturation in the snow growth region should result in an additional few inches of snow in the ridges, with only minor accumulations elsewhere.
Visible satellite trends this morning indicate some low clouds on the back side of high pressure across areas north of I-40.
1055 AM MST Thu Jan 26 2017 Updated Aviation Discussion Only minor updates this needed to raise max temperatures 2 to 3 degrees over the Plains, and to raise PoPs for the next few hours over the higher terrain of Southwest MT. This feature will exit the area to the south by the evening, leaving the entire region under influence of increasing upper level ridging. Upper level ridging will push mid-level cloud deck south of the region by 0000z near KBZN, KEKS, and a little later toward KWYS.
301 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 An upper level trough extending from a low located over Quebec to the west-southwest across the upper Mississippi Valley to the Four Corners. This trough will sag southward through Friday to a position from the Ohio Valley across the southern High Plains to southeast Arizona and the New Mexico bootheel by end of day tomorrow. Abundant mid level cloud cover ahead of the trough on Friday will limit upward potential for temps.
945 AM MST Thu Jan 26 2017 Only minor updates this needed to raise max temperatures 2 to 3 degrees over the Plains, and to raise PoPs for the next few hours over the higher terrain of Southwest MT. This feature will exit the area to the south by the evening, leaving the entire region under influence of increasing upper level ridging. An upper level ridge of high pressure sagging south from western Canada will maintain a dry N to NE flow aloft over the region through today and tonight.
1037 AM MST Thu Jan 26 2017 An upper trough will cross the region today and breezy northwesterly winds will develop. Dry weather is expected tonight due to synoptic scale subsidence as a weak upper ridge crosses the area behind the departing upper trough.
An axis of high pressure will weaken across the Keys overnight and early Friday as a cold front sags through the southeast Gulf of Mexico.
Some spotty freezing drizzle was also indicated over north central WI. The rest of central, northeast and east central WI should only see flurries, and those are expected to end overnight as the short- wave trof shifts east. Suspect that the low-level moisture will shallow out enough on Friday to allow for a dry day.
250 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 Mostly sunny skies and slightly warmer temperatures have returned to the local forecast area this afternoon. expect overnight lows to be a bit cooler than this morning with these near ideal radiational cooling conditions. the winds will increase a bit across the region making it feel a bit cooler than it otherwise would. A ridge of high pressure is expected to amplify across the west coast to start the extended periods making for fast moving northerly flow across the region.
244 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 The latest sfc analysis was indicating Rockies lee-side ridging, while broad cyclonic flow was draped down acrs much of the mid/ upper MS RVR Valley and GRT LKS. Aloft, large long wave trof complex continued to occupy much of the CONUS. Hopefully this won't turn into more a freezing drizzle scenario as opposed to flurries. But H85 MB cold pool also fcst to maximize/advect acrs the area late tonight into Fri morning, helping the cooler low temp cause. Even with some breaks in the cloud cover, will still go with highs only in the upper 20s to around 30 with expected cooler start to the day.
Elongated trof stretching from the ne states into the 4-corners area will sag sse going into the weekend as ridge expands northward along the west coast.
1140 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 Large-scale upper trough prevailing over the Nation's midsection this morning as ridging continues to build across the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. Further south, expect dry conditions with highs warming into the lower to middle 30s with winds a little weaker than yesterday's.
Overnight expect light WNW/NW winds which will cause the temperatures to fall to the low 30s south of I-20 and areas north will be near the upper 20s.
Water vapor imagery showing double trough moving over the western Great Lakes. This will likely wane through the morning as the next trough drops in behind this one. Overnight lows will drop off into the teens with the cold trough overhead. The forecast remains a nearly broken record through the weekend with a trough over the eastern U. Don't believe the moisture depth or lift is good enough for freezing drizzle either.
Strong high pressure aloft will lock in over the west coast states Friday, then expand east across the Great Basin this weekend. Snow showers are continuing across northern Utah this morning, as the last disturbance associated with a large trough pushes south across the forecast area. As this east- west oriented trough axis pushes southward, showers should generally dissipate through the afternoon hours. Starting tonight and continuing through Friday and the weekend, a ridge will amplify over the west coast and eventually the Great Basin, leading to slowly warming temperatures in the higher terrain, as well as developing inversion conditions in the lowest levels.
At the surface, northwesterly winds (gusting near 20 MPH at times) continue, as the CWA sits between low pressure over the Great Lakes and high pressure extending from the northern Rockies south into the southern Plains.
A general broad trough extended from Ontario and Quebec back into the northern and central Plains, then west toward the Pacific Northwest. There were a few ripples in this general trough pattern. Combination of new snow and clouds will probably hold highs only in the lower or mid 20s across the northern third of the forecast area, but areas near the Kansas border that did not receive snow should reach the lower and mid 30s today.
Clear skies will lead to cold morning temperatures with near freezing temperatures in the colder rural desert locations. Breezy conditions are also expected on Friday, especially across the lower Colorado River Valley.
This should result in cooler temperatures and a continued presence of haze/fog for the lower elevations. An upper level trough axis will pass through this morning, helping to continue the snow showers that have been moving southeast across the area so far this morning.
A large scale trough will remain over the Great Lakes and Midwest extending well westward into the Southwest over the upcoming day.
101 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 Temperatures today are expected to rise into the lower 20s to lower 30s with the cooler readings across the deep snow cover north.
207 PM MST Thu Jan 26 2017 Current surface map shows high pressure across the Rockies. An upper level ridge over the western US will gradually shift east into the plains this weekend.
Areas of freezing fog persist over the LOwer Columbia Basin and surrounding valleys. a Freezing Fog Advisory has been issued for the Foothills of the Blues where visibility has been below a quarter mile at times. An upper level ridge will move over WA and OR tonight and remain overhead through the weekend. Air Stagnation Advisories have been issued for the Yakima and Kittitas Valleys today and for the Lower Columbia Basin and adjacent areas tomorrow.
A deep upper level trough will dig over the Great Lakes and linger through the weekend with a series of short waves moving across the area.
235 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 Through tomorrow afternoon: Definitely a cooler day across the region than has been the case lately, although plenty of sunshine has still made it rather pleasant outdoors (for late January). Despite this, temperatures will likely get down freezing (or a little below) for locations along and north of the I-20 corridor while areas to the south probably remain at least a little above freezing. There should be a few more high clouds around tomorrow, possibility extending a little further than today, as clipper-type upper trough energy approaches from the northwest. Most locations can anticipate a slightly cooler day than today with enough wind to impart a bit of a wind chill at times.
317 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 We are under the influence under a large upper trough that encompasses most of North America east of the Rockies. Within this broad trough, there is a positively tilted wave that extends from central California back across MN over the the parent upper low over eastern Canada. However, the big question mark in the short term deals with sky cover trends when you look at what is behind the upper trough in the Canadian Prairies and that is mainly clear skies. Went a little warmer for highs Friday as well as we get into more westerly surface flow and the cold trough over us now slides off to the east as well.
The exception is in northern Tennessee, near and ahead of a weak longwave trough axis stretching from the Ohio Valley southwest into eastern Missouri. The upper low will shift into the New England area during the overnight hours, with zonal flow overtaking the upper level pattern across the TN Valley. However, the cooler airmass will continue to filter in at the surface and overnight lows will still fall to around freezing by daybreak on Friday.
An upper level trough extending west from the exiting upper low over lower MI, along with a broad cyclonic flow at the surface were combining to keep flurries and a very light snow over especially the southeast half of the forecast area early this morning. Blended model guidance lows from the upper teens along highway 20 to the lower 20s central and south look reasonable, looking at the upstream airmass advecting in from MN and the Dakotas. Overview: Upper jet amplifies into the weekend, setting up a big pattern change: Large ridge out West and a deep trough over the eastern half of the U.
303 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 Series of upper troughs will be sweeping across the Midwest tonight and Friday, keeping the region generally cloudy and somewhat blustery at times. The troughs will be accompanied by some flurries or light snow showers, but these are expected to be of little consequence. The passage of the trough on Friday morning will be accompanied by a tongue of colder air around -12C at 850 mb, which will result in high temperatures a bit colder than today, mainly in the upper 20s/lower 30s. The longwave pattern will be dominated by an upper level trough in the eastern lower 48, with a ridge in the west.
On Friday, a shallow and weak boundary is forecast to stall over Central Texas while a cool and dry airmass gets trapped at lower levels for high temperatures only reaching the lower to mid 50s across the Hill Country to upper 50s to lower 60s along and east of Interstate 35.
123 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 The upper level short wave trough that brought flurries to parts of central Missouri today will move east of the area this evening. Another short wave trough will then drop southeast across the region on Friday. High temperatures should therefore be a bit warmer with most areas getting into the upper 30s or lower 40s. As multiple short wave troughs pass through the area, there will be a chance for flurries/sprinkles.
Occasional flurries are expected as temperatures slowly drop into the low/mid 20s tonight. Highs will be a few degrees cooler than today, though nothing unusual for late January.
336 PM EST Thu Jan 26 2017 A cold front will cross the region this evening.
Temperatures on Friday will be a little cooler than today as some mid and high clouds develop across the area by afternoon. Highs will range from the upper 40s to around 50 across the Big Country, to the lower 50s elsewhere.
Upper disturbances and reinforcing cold fronts last half of the week brings colder and unsettled weather. While there will be accumulating snow at one time or another over most of the area, most will be relegated to the mountains while the lowlands could see minor nocturnal accumulations - a dusting or so.
Surface cold front is expected to clear the forecast area to the Southeast around 00z, with high pressure then building from the West/Northwest. Skies will gradually clear Tonight, with cooler air advecting in from the Northwest. Mainly sunny skies are expected for Friday, but a cool Northwesterly flow will keep highs in the lower to middle 60s.
346 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the Pacific NW ridging sewd through the Rockies and srn Plains to the wrn Gulf Coast region. while much cooler temps mostly in the 50s have been reported. Main story will be the cooler air as the continental high builds over.
314 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 Upper troughing now settling in over the northeastern and north central portions of the U. Tn resides within the base of the troughing with more of a westerly upper level component. However, height values are rather low and caa in the lower levels is ongoing.
105 PM EST Thu Jan 26 2017 It will be breezy behind a cold front this afternoon. Drier air has overspread the area as the cold front approaches the coast. High temperatures remain on track for mid 60s west to the lower 70s east. This will prevent radiational cooling conditions from becoming optimal and keep temperatures a few degrees warmer. Overnight lows will generally be in the mid 30s and slightly warmer along lake shores. A broad upper trough will develop over the eastern CONUS Friday.
Have lows in the low to mid teens, but it is possible we may fall off a bit more if we decouple more than expected.
Cyclonic low level flow is enough to produce some light LES with 850mb temps of -7C to -8C, which is also be enhanced by upslope N-NNW flow over the higher terrain of the N Central and W. Total snowfall through tonight will be minor generally at 1-4 inches over the higher terrain in the NW wind snowbelts and lesser elsewhere. Models indicate a trend toward pattern amplification with a mid/upper level ridge building into wrn Canada and a downstream trough across eastern NOAM this weekend.
High pressure continues to build in at the surface with weak cold air advection in the H850-925 layer behind the front that passed through around this time last night. This had led to clearing skies and calm winds in the Hill Country where temperatures have fallen to near freezing. Relative humidity values will decrease to 20-30 percent this afternoon, but the relatively weak winds with cooler temperatures will keep fire weather concerns to a minimum compared to where they have been.
SYNOPTIC SETUP: Short term begins with a trough running from the Intermountain west into the central US plains, the Great Lakes, and Quebec. A ridge is north of that from Washington to southern Alberta and into central Manitoba.
while an elongated trough aloft extending all the way from the northeast to the far southwest U. The the pressure gradient supporting the gusty northwest winds across the forecast area today will remain at the surface with subsidence expected aloft in the wake of the elongated upper trough moving south of the forecast area on Friday. Central CONUS will be under northwest flow this period between a ridge over the southwest and trough near the Great Lakes.
Currently, mid level trough pushing south across the Dakotas early this morning contributing to scattered flurries and continued cloud cover. Variable cloudiness about with many breaks in the low stratus, but with BKN-OVC mid level ceilings in place it is difficult to get a clean picture of this. Scattered flurries will slowly end from north to south today as the aforementioned trough moves off to our south.
northwest winds across the northeast plain producing an anticyclone into the denver area with weak ely winds.
The only active period of weather worth mentioning is Friday afternoon, as an intensifying onshore flow causes an increase in available moisture ahead of a deep 500 mb trough moving through the Desert Southwest. Isolated patches of rain will occur during this time period due to this pattern, with the remainder of the forecast period dry due to the influence of high pressure at the surface.
145 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 A quiet, cool day across the area today under the influence of a broad upper trough extending across the CONUS, and quasi-zonal flow aloft over the region. A cold front is expected to edge into northern portions of the area late tonight, and slowly push southward on Friday. An east- northeasterly wind shift will accompany the front, along with cooler temperatures.
An upper level trough will move southward across Kansas this afternoon and tonight.
Cyclonic low level flow is enough to produce some light LES with 850mb temps of -7C to -8C, which is also be enhanced by upslope N-NNW flow over the higher terrain of the N Central and W. Total snowfall through tonight will be minor generally at 1-4 inches over the higher terrain in the NW wind snowbelts and lesser elsewhere. Nam shows a 500 mb ridge over the western U. with a deep trough over the rest of the U. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a deep 500 mb trough over the lower Great Lakes 12z Mon with a ridge off the Ca coast.
1121 AM EST Thu Jan 26 2017 It will be breezy behind a cold front this afternoon. Showers ahead of the cold front have moved to the coast with the front currently moving through far Upstate SC. Front will cross the forecast area over the next couple of hours with cooler and much drier air overtaking the region. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the lower 60s west to the lower 70s east. This will prevent radiational cooling conditions from becoming optimal and keep temperatures a few degrees warmer. Overnight lows will generally be in the mid 30s and slightly warmer along lake shores. A broad upper trough will develop over the eastern CONUS Friday.
850mb temperatures show 4F to 7F increase from yesterday supporting various model output highs in the low to upper 30s. a little warmer daytime temperatures expected with mid 30s to low 40s (west to east).
1044 AM MST Thu Jan 26 2017 Per recent PV analysis, final upper disturbances rotating around closed upper low located over eastern Michigan early this morning is expected to provide for a few more rounds of generally light to moderate snow at times over portions of the forecast district into tonight. East-west oriented upper trough will drop south of the area with western U. S upper ridge translating in aloft. Models show a northerly surge on Friday which actually brings warmer temperatures to the region as it advects warmer air in overtop of the ridge.
With moisture eroding and more stable conditions pushing in behind this wave/upper level trough, will not be issuing any winter highlights. Temps will be sticking below the freezing mark in most areas today with plenty of teens expected for the mountains and high valleys. Slow moderation of temperatures moves in Friday afternoon as heights start bouncing back up as the western ridge nudges inland, shifts deep northerly flow out into the plains. High pressure will be settling into the area through the weekend with mainly dry and warmer weather anticipated. Western ridge kicks inland around midweek as another strong Pacific system rolls into the western states.
Conditions across the north will be briefly MVFR this morning but otherwise VFR conditions will prevail as high pressure builds in. The upper pattern remains highly amplified at this time with strong ridging along the west coast with a broad, negatively tilted trough covering almost everything downstream. This pattern will keep the drier and cooler conditions in place through the period.
Rain chances have now returned to nil while any clouds over the area will be only of the high cirrus variety. Of course the Florida Keys are in the lower 70s. What is driving the weather is high pressure ridging down from the central Rockies.
High pressure will continue to build across the region. Winds will slack off during the latter afternoon remain on the lower side through Friday. Rain chances have now returned to nil while any clouds over the area will be only of the high cirrus variety. Of course the Florida Keys are in the lower 70s. What is driving the weather is high pressure ridging down from the central Rockies.