Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
It will be warmer Tuesday over today. So mixing will be higher and afternoon humidity much lower Tuesday as Tuesdays high 3-5 degrees warmer over today.
Heat lingers on for one more day today despite the ridge weakening overnight and into today. For Central California this is not a totally unusual phenomena where warm afternoon highs linger for an additional day after a ridge of high pressure breaks down and that is what we are seeing today. Cooler temperatures are in store for the valley tomorrow as the trough of low pressure in the Pacific Northwest continues to lower 500 mb heights and introduces some onshore flow.
738 AM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021 Surface and upper low near James Bay will continue lifting northeastward today as broad ridging builds into the Upper Great Lakes in its wake. except warmer near the Lake shores.
A weak NW-SE oriented ridge is over TX this morning and is sandwiched between Ida to the east and weakening Nora to the southwest. Surface ridging to the west of Ida over N/E TX will maintain a weak convergence zone generally along and S of I-10, with seasonally high Pwat values in the 1. Once daytime heating picks up by midday, the highest PoPs are shown to be over the Hill Country with a secondary axis of higher PoPs running through San Antonio to near VCT. Later today, the influence of surface ridging from Ida will have washed out, and we could see convection coverage decrease early in the evening. Moisture remains pooled over the area for Tuesday, but with the upper ridge beginning to re-establish itself.
746 AM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021 Aviation -Stretch of dry/pleasant weather this week -Next chance of rain (low) is over the weekend --Stretch of dry/pleasant weather this week-- The cold front has passed through and surface ridging will impact the region most of this week.
Temperatures will climb several degrees this afernoon and again Tuesday as high pressure builds into the Southern Plains. High temperatures will climb in response to building high pressure over the Southern Plains.
GOES16 Night FOG product now is showing a widespread area of stratus layer cloud north of the surface stationary front, with a corridor of scattered stratus expanding southward through the highway 183 corridor toward Edwards/Pawnee counties.
411 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 Westerly flow aloft across our region today will be replaced by upper level ridging over the northern plains through Tuesday. At the surface, high pressure across eastern sd will slowly build east into Tuesday with southeast winds increasing as the surface pressure gradient tightens up.
It will another hot day with temperatures climbing into the lower 90s away from the coast. These temperatures combined with the high humidity levels will again support heat indices in the 105-107 degree range during the afternoon, so if you plan to be outdoors today remember to drink plenty of water to stay hydrated. High pressure offshore the southeast U.
Westerly flow aloft across our region today will be replaced by upper level ridging over the northern plains through Tuesday. At the surface, high pressure across eastern sd will slowly build east into Tuesday with southeast winds increasing as the surface pressure gradient tightens up.
TC Nora likely to bring moisture into Colorado this forecast A couple more unseasonably warm days are expected before moisture once again returns to the high country and eventually the plains.
Occasional gusts could approach 30 kts at times, wind shear concerns are the highest at LLQ this afternoon/evening. Cooler high temps are expected across the east as well today. H500 flow aloft will remain out of the N-NW in its wake before ridging returns to the area.
Given this fact, and the high amount of uncertainty as to how everything will play out this afternoon/evening, will hold off on issuing a flood watch for now. Tuesday's temperatures will remain cooler through Tuesday, topping out in the 70s and low 80s.
A weak and dry cold front that extends from eastern Ontario to far nrn Lake MI and nrn WI will slowly shift swd tnt, and move across srn WI Tue AM. This will bring nely sfc winds and temps several degrees cooler than today.
ALPW imagery suggests the higher sfc-850mb moisture content is still to our south but this will begin to surge northward this afternoon and tonight. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 78 69 81 64 / 70 100 80 50 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 81 69 80 63 / 40 90 90 70 20 Oak Ridge, TN 70 79 69 79 62 / 50 90 90 70 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 83 67 77 61 / 30 70 90 90 30 NC.
GOES vapor imagery depicts a broad dry slot encompassing much of Lower Michigan in connection with northern Quebec upper low. Progged H8-H7 ThetaE convergence south of I-96 may preserve some broken status overnight keeping lows a bit warmer for the Metro Detroit area (mid 60s). Forecast soundings reveal slightly cooler lower troposphere thermal profiles with H8 temps in the 10-12C range, translating to highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Early afternoon analysis showed a warm front gradually moving northward through area, which will likely provide a focus for thunderstorm development this evening/tonight. In addition, guidance suggests 0-3 km shear nearing 30 kts along with decent hodograph curvature in the low levels, so can't rule out mesovortex genesis and perhaps a tornado threat, though low level thermodynamic profiles aren't exactly favorable. Storms should exit the area Tuesday morning, giving way to another "cooler" day with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
The large-scale pattern features a deep layer mean anticyclone centered near the Florida/Georgia state line with deep ridging and associated forcing for synoptic-scale subsidence over the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters. The associated high pressure cell was centered just offshore the southeastern United States with rather weak gradient flow over the Keys, Straits of Florida, and adjacent areas.
P between a deep low pressure near and east of the Hudson Bay and high pressure centered over Minnesota. High pressure will settle into the area which will result in lighter winds for Tuesday though the east could still see some gusts to near 15 mph.
Tuesday will see slight amplification of the upper level high pressure ridge axis through the central Rockies, and also slight thinning of mid level moisture.
Still expect convective initiation to occur along the diffuse warm front extending northwest to southeast through central Nebraska, and also along a dry line approaching from the west. As the evening wears on and the low level jet amplifies, expect the warm front will begin to light up with convection developing into am MCS with a treat primarily for damaging winds, large hail, and locally heavy rainfall. Mid-week upper level high pressure builds across the Southern Plains with a deep trough developing across western Canada into the northern Rockies.
A pleasant stretch of weather gets underway today and pretty much lasts through the week with cooler temperatures and much lower humidity. These welcome changes are set in motion by the cold front exiting Lower MI leading up to sunrise. This leads surface Td down into the 50s during the afternoon as high temperatures reach the lower to mid 80s. The cooler air over the warm lake water also generates patchy stratocu for partly cloudy sky heading into Tuesday morning. An eastward track across the mid Appalachians is ensured by upper level long wave amplification driven primarily by the trough digging into the Pacific NW and Canadian Rockies.
Today will be the warmest day of the week across the Northern Rockies, before a dry cold front moves through the region overnight and through the day tomorrow. Highs today in the 80s, will be in the low to mid 70s tomorrow, around 10 degrees cooler. As the cold front enters from the west, conditions will become much windier through the afternoon and evening hours. The Northern Rockies will remain under the influence of a trough of low pressure through much of the week, keeping temperatures slightly below normal, with very little chances for any precipitation.
Lingering cloud cover led to a slow start to convection today, but we are beginning to see storm development along the higher terrain early this afternoon. The initial storms over the high terrain will push into the lower elevations of Yavapai and Gila counties this evening.
As Ida sweeps into an elongated upper level, East Coast trof, we'll become dominated by Central U. ridging aloft.
Once peak heating dissipates going into the early evening hours, thunderstorm coverage should decrease from north to south, as a building ridge from the west will bring more large scale subsidence to the Panhandles. This large scale subsidence from the H500 ridge will shift east tomorrow bringing mostly dry conditions back to the Panhandles. There still maybe an outside chance of a shower or storm south of I-40 corridor with the main UL trough slowly shifting south, but likely the upper level ridge moving in should limit precipitation chances. High temperatures tomorrow under southwest surface flow and established WAA into the region will range from the lower to upper 90s.
By Tuesday, the upper ridge over the Four Corners today builds into the 100th meridian by Tuesday afternoon.
Convection is expected to propagate SE within the mean flow this evening with the low chance for a shower or storm clipping the western fringe of the FA potentially the southern Devils Lake basin or near Valley City. Light mixing with winds in the valley and points west will help low be a bit warmer than this morning with lows in the 50s.
Relatively dry conditions are expected to continue for much of southwest and central Kansas tonight into Tuesday as upper level ridging slowly builds throughout the Central/Southern Rockies, resulting in a weakening west-northwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains. Temperatures will not be quite as cool tonight as prevailing southerlies continue to draw slightly warmer air up into western Kansas. Expect lows generally down into the mid/upper 60s(F) with the lower 70s(F) still possible in south central Kansas.
It will be another hot day with temperatures climbing into the lower 90s away from the coast. These temperatures combined with the high humidity levels will again support heat indices in the 105-107 degree range during the afternoon, so if you plan to be outdoors today remember to drink plenty of water to stay hydrated. High pressure offshore the southeast U.
To the northwest in northeastern Colorado and western Nebraska, decent convergence is taking place along a weak lee trough with deep cumulus recent forming in the former area. A more consistent signal has been for some storm organization to take place east into central portions of Nebraska this evening with storms surging southeast into the low-level jet overnight into early Tuesday. MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and some mid-level warm-air advection would support this, however the low-level jet remains modest to nearly non-existent over eastern Kansas where the impacts of the southeastern tropical system are stronger. Have added some small chances in eastern areas and gone on the cooler side for Tuesday's highs.
At this point Tuesday and Tuesday night appear dry as mid-level ridge builds over the forecast area.
Temperatures were in the mid to upper 80s as of 2 PM with dew points in the lower 70s.
This will lead to an increasing concern for heavy rain producing thunderstorms, especially over the lower deserts and along the desert mountain slopes Tuesday afternoon.
High pressure aloft will build back over the area later this week, which will result in warmer temperatures and dry weather.
911 AM MDT Mon Aug 30 2021 Flat ridging over the region will bring us dry/warmer conditions today, with temps pushing 90F many places. To our west, will likely see some high-based cumulus over the high terrain, but air mass looks too dry to support precipitation. JKL Weak upper ridging over the area will result in a very warm and dry day over our CWA with highs in the 80s. Tuesday will be still warmer thanks to a prefrontal environment and brisk downslope winds off the mountains by afternoon. A cold front is expected to cross the area Tuesday night with a sharp turn to northerly winds in the evening. Fire weather conditions will be elevated Tuesday due to afternoon highs in the lower 90s and some wind mixing down by mid afternoon. BT The extended continues to be cooler and unsettled.
/Tonight through Monday/ Take Home Points: *Showers/storms move in from W/NW tonight *Seasonable temperatures through the week *Shower/storm chances return late week Discussion: Quiet weather prevailed across the region this morning and afternoon with seasonable temperatures into the lower 80s by early to mid- afternoon. Visible satellite depicted blossoming fair weather cumulus over roughly the southwest third to half of the state, outlining areas of general moisture return and dew points into the low to mid 70s.
An upper ridge will build back over the area the next few days, and given the current temperature readings, it is possible that high temperatures this week may even exceed the hot levels we are currently forecasting. The upper ridge will flatten some over the weekend, which may allow a frontal boundary to slip south into the area. Did go slightly cooler on temperatures next Monday in case the front does make it down here.
A few isolated showers or even a rumble or two of thunder is possible through the afternoon, with the highest rain chances across Western Central Texas. Outside of any precip, it will be hot and humid with heat index values once again climbing into the low 100s.
Cooler high temps are expected across the east as well today. H500 flow aloft will remain out of the N-NW in its wake before ridging returns to the area.
120 PM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021 Aviation -Stretch of dry/pleasant weather this week -Next chance of rain (low) is over the weekend --Stretch of dry/pleasant weather this week-- The cold front has passed through and surface ridging will impact the region most of this week.
Noticeably Cooler and Less Humid. Pattern synopsis and forecast: Heat and humidity of the last few days is now well to our east and south as low amplitude trough axis traverses the northern Great Lakes. Large area of Canada originated high pressure building south into the western Great Lakes, the center of which is nosing into southern Manitoba and northern Minnesota. This high looks to dominate our weather for much, if not all, off this week. Overnight should be a dry and noticeably cooler one. with widespread lows by sunrise Tuesday in the lower and middle 50s. High impact weather potential: None Synopsis/Forecast: A temporary omega block looks to set up through midweek with a cut-off low centered over Quebec followed by ridging through the Plains and another cut-off over British Columbia.
Noticeably Cooler and Less Humid. Pattern synopsis and forecast: Heat and humidity of the last few days is now well to our east and south as low amplitude trough axis traverses the northern Great Lakes. Large area of Canada originated high pressure building south into the western Great Lakes, the center of which is nosing into southern Manitoba and northern Minnesota. This high looks to dominate our weather for much, if not all, off this week. Overnight should be a dry and noticeably cooler one. with widespread lows by sunrise Tuesday in the lower and middle 50s. Highs will generally be in the low and mid 70s with the 40s to low 50s for lows.
The region will be between high pressure to the east southeast and remnants of IDA to the northwest Tonight. The high will move more to the southeast Tuesday, as a trough extending south from IDA moves southeast toward region. Moisture will increase from the south southwest ahead of this trough, with chances for convection increasing from west to east through the day.
Tomorrow, ridging aloft will strengthen some, but with elevated moisture remaining in place and some weak upper energy embedded in the northerly flow aloft, some isolated showers or perhaps a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in the afternoon over the northeastern two-thirds of the region, lower in coverage than today. Expecting it to be a bit warmer as surface flow returns to southerly/southeasterly with the loss of any influence from Ida.
332 PM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021 Behind a cold front passage this afternoon quiet, cooler and less humid conditions follow for tonight through remainder of the week for most of the region.
254 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 At 2 PM, high pressure stretched from northern Minnesota into eastern Iowa with a stalled front stretching from STJ to STL to KIH2 to KHUF TO KCLE. Dewpoints are in the lower 60s. High temperatures on Tuesday will range from the upper 70s along the Highway corridor to the lower 80s south.
Temperatures are going to hover in the low to mid 90s across the area as the mountains are expected to stay in the upper 80s.
136 PM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021 Surface and upper low near James Bay will continue lifting northeastward today as broad ridging builds into the Upper Great Lakes in its wake. except warmer near the Lake shores.
Expect to see gradually clearing skies with highs in the lower 80s across the area.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): Mid level ridging will continue to build into region through the short term. Lows tonight and Tuesday night will range from the mid 70s across the ranchlands to the low 80s near the coast. High temperatures on Tuesday are expected to range from the mid to upper 90s near the coast to the lower 100s farther inland, except around 90 at the beaches. Modest swells along the lower Texas coast this afternoon are expected to subside later tonight into Tuesday.
1151 AM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021 Data from the Key West morning radiosonde balloon indicated a significant layer of dry air extending down into the lower troposphere, with dewpoint depressions of 19C, 16C, and 7C at 500mb, 700mb, and 850mb, respectively. This is indicative of large-scale subsidence prevailing over the service area in association with a deep layer mean anticyclone centered near the Florida-Georgia state line. A broad ridge extends south- southwest to the northwestern Caribbean, with a light wind regime present across the Florida Keys and adjacent Coastal waters. High pressure will settle across the Florida Keys through the middle of the week, resulting in light to gentle breezes.
The potential complex should start diving more south toward dawn as the low-level jet veers.
Tomorrow will yield VFR conditions as a mid level ridge builds.
The next one moves in as an upper low digs into the Pacific NW and a tongue of moist unstable air is drawn N-NW across eastern Montana.
144 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 The large area of high pressure currently over the Upper Midwest is not expected to move much through Tuesday. A short wave trough coming in from the west is expected to generate some showers and storms over the Missouri River Valley overnight.
As we push towards midnight, some of the high-res models suggest we could be dealing with a decent amount of low-level helicity building across the area. Conditions will be mainly VFR this evening, then cigs/vsbys will drop rapidly overnight as low pressure center approaches.
643 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 Looking like the storms west of Bismarck will stay to the west of this FA tonight, so have removed the low chances for rain in the Valley City to Forman region. Convection is expected to propagate SE within the mean flow this evening with the low chance for a shower or storm clipping the western fringe of the FA potentially the southern Devils Lake basin or near Valley City. Light mixing with winds in the valley and points west will help low be a bit warmer than this morning with lows in the 50s.
The highest chances for storms will be during the afternoon and evening.
So far, convection across the forecast area today has been driven by a cold front trying to push southward. Currently, a line is continuing to develop from north of Terre Haute to Lebanon, Indiana, just ahead of that cold front which is now stalled due to Ida counteracting it. Elsewhere, overnight lows on Tuesday night will generally be in the low to mid 60s.
1044 PM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021 Behind a cold front passage this afternoon quiet, cooler and less humid conditions follow for tonight through remainder of the week for most of the region.
735 PM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021 Behind a cold front passage this afternoon quiet, cooler and less humid conditions follow for tonight through remainder of the week for most of the region.
Another dry day for most tomorrow afternoon in response to an upper level anticyclone over southern Colorado.
The improvement is related to an upper trough passing by to our north Tuesday. The trough will also lower temperatures in the north, while the smoke itself helps lower daytime temperatures in the south. Around Sept 8 the GFS has a strong trough coming in but the ECMWF has a ridge instead, so no help there just yet.
Cooler temperatures expected through the remainder of the week. A very dry airmass is currently in place with RH readings only in the single digits to mid teens over most of the northern Sierra, Southern Cascades and foothill ridges. Wind gusts up to 20-30 mph has been observed so far across the high Sierra and southern Cascades this afternoon. Ensemble means indicate that an upper trough will gradually deepen into mid-week. Southwest to west wind gusts of 20 to 35 mph are possible, locally higher over ridgetops.
654 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 Summary: Partly cloudy to mostly clear skies will continue for the next couple days under a high pressure.
At 2 PM, high pressure stretched from northern Minnesota into eastern Iowa with a stalled front stretching from STJ to STL to KIH2 to KHUF TO KCLE. Dewpoints are in the lower 60s. High temperatures on Tuesday will range from the upper 70s along the Highway corridor to the lower 80s south.
Temperatures tonight will drop into the 70s with cooler temps inland and warmer temps at the coast and along the St. The region will be between high pressure to the east southeast and remnants of IDA to the northwest Tonight. The high will move more to the southeast Tuesday, as a trough extending south from IDA moves southeast toward region. Moisture will increase from the south southwest ahead of this trough, with chances for convection increasing from west to east through the day.
433 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 Summary: Partly cloudy to mostly clear skies will continue for the next couple days under a high pressure.
610 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 The large area of high pressure currently over the Upper Midwest is not expected to move much through Tuesday. A short wave trough coming in from the west is expected to generate some showers and storms over the Missouri River Valley overnight.
Thunderstorm activity tonight should be isolated to scattered in coverage as storms move off the higher terrain and into the lower elevations.
Winds range from northerly around the Upper Keys to southeasterly in the Lower Keys. Lower level ridging extends broadly down the southeast coast, across the Straits and into the northwestern Caribbean Sea. In our area, this ridging is accompanied by some drying and warming in the lower levels. Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to dominate Keys weather through the overnight period. This is due to weak flow, some inhibition, and drier air through the lower levels.
Looking like the storms west of Bismarck will stay to the west of this FA tonight, so have removed the low chances for rain in the Valley City to Forman region. Convection is expected to propagate SE within the mean flow this evening with the low chance for a shower or storm clipping the western fringe of the FA potentially the southern Devils Lake basin or near Valley City. Light mixing with winds in the valley and points west will help low be a bit warmer than this morning with lows in the 50s.