Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The stacked low pressure system was located over southwest Ontario early this morning. This will allow for colder lows tonight over southeast ND, and slightly warmer near Lake of the Woods (with the more clouds). The upper low finally transitions east to center itself over the northeastern CONUS with the upstream rex block breaking down and the associated ridge building east towards the Northern Plains.
Temperatures today will be around seasonal norms and around 10 degrees warmer on Saturday. High clouds will stream in tomorrow in advance of the next cold front.
237 AM EDT Fri Oct 14 2022 Cooler and drier air works in to the region today behind a departing cold front.
(Today and tonight) After some patchy fog early this morning across the southeast big bend, mostly clear skies with a dry airmass will prevail today as high pressure builds into the area. Highs today are expected to reach the low to mid 80s.
The persistent upper level ridge remains over the Pacific Northwest this evening and quiet weather is anticipated again tonight and for the next several days. This is in response to the strong, upper level ridge centered over the Pacific Northwest, which has kept high temperatures about 10 degrees above normal over the past week. The upper level ridge is expected to persist through the period, as a rex blocking pattern is in place with a low pressure system spinning just offshore of the California/Mexico border.
1113 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 (Rest of tonight) High pressure anchored over the region will keep conditions dry and cool tonight.
A high-amplitude blocking ridge is positioned over the Pacific coastal waters.
which should aid in low temps falling into the low/mid 40s for much of the CWA.
Tonight and Friday A jet streak rounding the upper low was producing showers across most of the region at 19 UTC. A strong upper low will move south across Wisconsin Friday, with the left exit region of the jet moving across the area.
1212 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 Key Points: * Cool night ahead with temperatures dipping into the low and mid 30s across northern and eastern Missouri * Elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected Friday afternoon. Upper level trough continues to sit and spin across the Upper Midwest. This system is expected to remain across the Great Lakes region through Saturday morning, with a series of vort maxes rotating around the upper low. Once the main vort max rotates around the base of the trough Friday night, upper low is expected to lift northeast towards the Hudson Bay.
We continue to have the tight pressure gradient between the ridging near the Pacific northwest and the Upper Level low near the Great Lakes with tight packing of height lines. In addition, the pressure gradient will be tightening ahead of a cold front that will drop into Montana today and into northern Wyoming toward Saturday morning.
Meanwhile, a large upper low will drop south out of Canada through the upper midwest on western side of larger eastern trough. Even with the increase in moisture, the winds will also aid in warmer temps that will offset the moisture, resulting in another day with elevated fire weather concerns across parts of the area. The main areas of concern will be across the north and southeast where ERC values continue to be the highest. As we go into tonight, surface front associated with the upper trough will drop south into northern Oklahoma. Behind the front will be drier and cooler air, which will make for a cooler night across the north.
127 AM EDT Fri Oct 14 2022 Dry weather returns today under building high pressure. A reinforcing cold front is progged for a Saturday passage, though with a lack of significant moisture maintained only a slight to low chance for a shower with its passage. A sfc wave of low pressure is expected to develop along the front across the TN Vly region Saturday night as the longwave trough persists, with scattered showers returning as this wave tracks across the OH Vly/Mid Atlantic region. The series of trough passing through the area will keep the chance of showers in the forecast through Saturday night before the next disturbance approaches from the southwest.
Very little change in the large-scale pattern as an upper ridge dominates for the remainder of the week.
112 AM PDT Fri Oct 14 2022 Pleasant Fall weather will continue this weekend as an upper level blocking pattern dominates the western United States. DISCUSSIONâ¦ The western US continues to be dominated by a mid-latitude blocking pattern. Daytime highs will continue to run 5-10 degrees above average across our region through the weekend with lower valley areas seeing highs into the low 80s. Recent model guidance consistently foresees a shift in the overall pattern where an upper low spinning off the southern CA coast ejects east across the desert Southwest this weekend. Concurrently, an upper trough deepening over the eastern Pacific will lift northeast and thrust into the western periphery of the area of high pressure that is now amplifying over the Pacific Northwest and Canada.
A few isolated rain showers are possible from central Minnesota into western Wisconsin this afternoon, but more widespread precipitation will develop late tonight through tomorrow morning as the upper level low slowly dips south and vorticity increases aloft. Skies will begin to clear overnight as the upper level forcing moves east of the region, and lighter winds will allow for temperatures to drop below freezing area-wide for Saturday morning. Partly sunny skies and developing southwest winds will make for a warmer day on Saturday, with high temperatures warming into the low to mid 40s.
119 AM EDT Fri Oct 14 2022 A cold front will move across the area tonight followed by high pressure for the weekend. A stronger front will move across early next bringing much cooler temperatures. Cold front looks to enter out northwestern counties shortly based on recent surface obs and satellite. Really an uneventful and nice weekend expected as high pressure building in will keep things dry and mostly seasonable.
/NEW/ /Friday and Saturday/ Yesterday's cold front has brought much cooler weather to the region this morning. A high pressure center has settled over us this evening that has allowed the surface winds to go near calm for most. Saturday afternoon should be a few degrees warmer than today with highs in the low to mid 90s.
1220 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 (This evening through Friday) Current upper air analysis shows a vertically stacked upper level low centered over Ontario which places us under the southwest peripheral of this trough. The cold front associated with this trough has moved well to the south of the CWA which positions us within a very stable and dry atmosphere. Light surface winds and strong radiational cooling will allow temperatures to dip down into the low 40s in these locations.
Daytime heating will allow for afternoon temperatures to peak in the high 70s to the upper 80s.
(Today and tonight) A lee cyclone over southeastern Colorado will push south today, resulting in winds becoming more southwesterly. As this cyclone moves south, it will tighten the pressure gradient over the region, bringing breezy winds. The upper low currently off the west coast will shift a little east, advecting upper-level moisture towards the region. With warmer highs and limited radiative cooling from cloud cover, lows will most likely only fall into the 50s tonight across the area.
(Today through Saturday afternoon) Increasing mid level temperatures and a closer ridge axis will aid in getting Friday afternoon highs into the low to mid 80s. Saturday afternoon will see highs reach into the mid to upper 80s area-wide thanks again to the upper level ridge sitting overhead.
258 AM EDT Fri Oct 14 2022 High pressure will extend across the region through the weekend.
In the northern stream, a closed low was located north of the Great Lakes in Canada and will be slow to move over the 7 day period with a blocking ridge east of the low. Northwest flow on the back side of the upper low will push a cold front through the area at the surface tonight, but this front looks moisture starved and do not have any pops going with it.
118 AM EDT Fri Oct 14 2022 High pressure will extend across the region through the weekend.
1012 PM MDT Thu Oct 13 2022 Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery depict a robust upper low centered over west-central Ontario and far eastern Manitoba this afternoon. Deep trough axis extends southward through the Great Lakes into the Tennessee Valley. The upper low will slowly pivot eastward, becoming centered over northern WI by Friday night. As the low pulls eastward, the core of strongest winds aloft will shift eastward and the pressure gradient will begin to ease throughout the day Friday.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows a broad mid/upper trough across the central/eastern CONUS, while surface analysis depicts a cold front extending from the eastern Carolinas to north Florida and westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Water vapor imagery this morning showing a well defined deep upper low situated over southwest Ontario enveloping the eastern CONUS.
Weekend Weather: The hemispheric weather pattern will remain stagnant over the weekend, with longwave troughing in the East and ridging over the West. Gusty southwest winds may then develop Saturday afternoon as the high drifts off to the southeast.
358 AM EDT Fri Oct 14 2022 Weak high pressure will build over the area today. A weak cold front will move across the area Saturday night.
Strong upper vort max will drop thru the mean upper trof over western Ontario across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes pushing a modest surface cold front southward across the central Plains tonight. This will result in slightly cooler temperatures for Saturday, though still above climo. A secondary upper trof will slide southeastward across the Upper Midwest Saturday night.
402 AM EDT Fri Oct 14 2022 Dry weather returns today under building high pressure. A reinforcing cold front is progged for a Saturday passage, though with a lack of significant moisture maintained only a slight to low chance for a shower with its passage. A sfc wave of low pressure is expected to develop along the front across the TN Vly region Saturday night as the longwave trough persists, with scattered showers returning as this wave tracks across the OH Vly/Mid Atlantic region. The series of trough passing through the area will keep the chance of showers in the forecast through Saturday night before the next disturbance approaches from the southwest.
1254 AM EDT Fri Oct 14 2022 Dry weather returns today under building high pressure. A reinforcing cold front is progged for a Saturday passage, though with a lack of significant moisture maintained only a slight to low chance for a shower with its passage. A sfc wave of low pressure is expected to develop along the front across the TN Vly region Saturday night as the longwave trough persists, with scattered showers returning as this wave tracks across the OH Vly/Mid Atlantic region. The series of trough passing through the area will keep the chance of showers in the forecast through Saturday night before the next disturbance approaches from the southwest.
1120 PM MDT Thu Oct 13 2022 The large scale pattern will continue to be largely unchanged over the next few days, as the Rex Block over the West Coast and the large trough over the eastern half of the country both remain stubbornly stationary. Some slight ridging over the Four Corners region will keep skies clear and allow daytime temperatures to climb a few degrees above normal for mid-October. These clear skies will also allow for good radiational cooling at night, with some of the higher elevation valleys seeing temperatures drop below freezing.
Afternoon relative humidity percentiles ranged from the lower teens to lower 20s. Temperatures are expected to be a couple degrees warmer, with dew points slightly higher, however these differences are nearly offsetting in regards to afternoon relative humidity readings. Moisture will quickly ramp up on Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front from the plains. Temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than observed on Friday.
The jet supporting a longwave trough over Canada and the Great Lakes region is further east today, with an upper level high over the PACNW coast. Temperatures will rise above normal, humidity values will approach critical values and gusty winds will be more widespread Friday, as a cold front approaches from the north. The cold front could reach Cody and Buffalo between 09Z and 12Z Saturday.
613 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 (Today through Saturday afternoon) Increasing mid level temperatures and a closer ridge axis will aid in getting Friday afternoon highs into the low to mid 80s. Saturday afternoon will see highs reach into the mid to upper 80s area-wide thanks again to the upper level ridge sitting overhead.
620 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 (Today and tonight) A lee cyclone over southeastern Colorado will push south today, resulting in winds becoming more southwesterly. As this cyclone moves south, it will tighten the pressure gradient over the region, bringing breezy winds. The upper low currently off the west coast will shift a little east, advecting upper-level moisture towards the region. With warmer highs and limited radiative cooling from cloud cover, lows will most likely only fall into the 50s tonight across the area.
648 AM EDT Fri Oct 14 2022 (Today and tonight) After some patchy fog early this morning across the southeast big bend, mostly clear skies with a dry airmass will prevail today as high pressure builds into the area. Highs today are expected to reach the low to mid 80s.
728 AM EDT Fri Oct 14 2022 High pressure will extend across the region through the weekend.
648 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 (Today through Saturday) A long wave trough remains in place across the eastern CONUS, providing high pressure to the area.
Rex Blocking pattern remains the dominate weather feature over the West Coast as an upper low rotates off the Southern California Coast. While precipitation continue near the Southern California Coast, the slow drift southeastward of the upper low will lessen the threat of showers over Central California today. However, while the ridge pattern over the West will keep temperatures above normal and winds light, the movement of the upper low toward Baja California will place possible precipitation over Kern County on Saturday.
The upper level ridge off to the west shifts slightly eastward. This will help to bring warmer temperatures with highs climbing into the 70s across northeast Colorado. With the warmer airmass in place, lows tonight are expected to be warmer with readings in the upper 30s to mid 40s across northeast Colorado.
Dry and warm weather will continue today before a Southern California low pressure system begins to move inland Saturday and generates showers and thunderstorms over areas mainly south and east of Las Vegas Saturday afternoon and Saturday night.
959 AM EDT Fri Oct 14 2022 Weak high pressure will build over the area today. A weak cold front will move across the area Saturday night.
A highly amplified upper level pattern exists across North America with a deep closed low situated in the vicinity of the Great Lakes and a Rex type (high over low) block along the west coast. A frontal boundary preceding the cooler airmass moves south through the area tonight with a period of increased northerly winds and gusts to around 20 mph likely as the boundary pushes through overnight.
A rex block still remains in place this morning with a closed low over the southern california coast and a ridge right over southern Oregon. There is also a notable thermal trough building Friday night along the coast as some weak offshore flow develops.
1017 AM EDT Fri Oct 14 2022 High pressure will extend across the region through the weekend.
840 AM EDT Fri Oct 14 2022 Dry weather remains in place today under building high pressure. A trough moves through on Saturday providing some showers. The mentioned cold front is progged for a Saturday passage, though with a lack of significant moisture maintained only a slight to low chance for a shower with its passage. A sfc wave of low pressure is expected to develop along the front across the TN Vly region Saturday night as the longwave trough persists, with scattered showers returning as this wave tracks across the OH Vly/Mid Atlantic region. The series of trough passing through the area will keep the chance of showers in the forecast through Saturday night before the next disturbance approaches from the southwest.
High pressure will remain over the western United States through the short term.
1231 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 (Today through Saturday afternoon) Increasing mid level temperatures and a closer ridge axis will aid in getting Friday afternoon highs into the low to mid 80s. Saturday afternoon will see highs reach into the mid to upper 80s area-wide thanks again to the upper level ridge sitting overhead.
Overall temperatures trend about 10-15 degrees cooler for Saturday, closer to climate normals.
101 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 Surface analysis late this morning places a broad 1018 mb ridge of high pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast United States.
Large upper low pressure over western Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes States will be sending energy southeastward across the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. Temperatures should warm up with highs in the lower 60s or lower 70s. Midday Saturday a cold front moves southeast into Nebraska , bringing with it increasing clouds and cooler temperatures.
323 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 A weak cold front will swing through central Illinois this evening triggering scattered light showers. The showers will quickly come to an end before midnight followed by clearing skies and colder weather overnight with lows ranging from the lower 30s along/west of I-55 to around 40 degrees far SE. Chilly weather will be on tap for Saturday with highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s until high pressure tracks east of the region and southerly return flow resumes ahead of the next approaching cold front. The light southerly winds and increasing cloud cover will keep lows Saturday night several degrees warmer than tonight in the lower to middle 40s.
The large-scale setup for this pattern, is a large "rex block" of high pressure off the Pacific NW Coastline. This high pressure area is bringing northwesterly flow over the northern plains and into Wisconsin. Concurrently, there is a large upper low that has setup over Ontario. This upper low is enhancing the northwesterly flow off the plains towards Wisconsin.
A lobe of energy rotating about the low will help push a weak front across the area tonight, followed by weak high pressure for Saturday.
(Through Tonight) High pressure will build overhead from the northwest through Tonight. Lows Tonight will range from the lower to mid 50s across inland SE GA to the lower to mid 60s over coastal NE FL.
158 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 A deep upper low was located over the Upper Midwest, bringing widespread accumulating snow (light amounts) to parts of NE Minnesota into central and northern Wisconsin. On the southern flank of the upper trough, across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois, a tight pressure gradient has led to increasing WSW winds early this afternoon.
Lows Saturday night will range in the low to mid 50s.
High pressure will dominate the weather pattern, with dry and mild conditions. Today through Saturday night: A ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern, deflecting the primary potential for precipitation away from the region. Some are cresting the ridge near the Canadian border this morning and are projected to drop south this morning to early afternoon.
This looks to be the only sensible weather impact through the weekend as ridging persists into the workweek.
Water vapor imagery highlights a broad cyclonic complex over the Central and Eastern US, with a cold front analyzed over Central Florida.
306 PM EDT Fri Oct 14 2022 (This evening through Saturday) Calm weather conditions and clear skies will be on tap for north and central Georgia as dry air continues to be ushered in to the forecast area from the low pressure system over the Great Lakes Region throughout the short term forecast period.
Temperatures are a few degrees warmer than yesterday and winds are now southerly. Overnight, mostly clear skies can be expected, but moisture will increase toward morning and low temperatures will be several degrees warmer than this morning. Saturday will be hot for most locations with highs in the low/mid 90s under mostly sunny skies, however, an increase in mid and high cloud cover is expected late in the day.
354 PM EDT Fri Oct 14 2022 High pressure will extend across the region through the weekend.
1225 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 (Today and tonight) A lee cyclone over southeastern Colorado will push south today, resulting in winds becoming more southwesterly. As this cyclone moves south, it will tighten the pressure gradient over the region, bringing breezy winds. The upper low currently off the west coast will shift a little east, advecting upper-level moisture towards the region. With warmer highs and limited radiative cooling from cloud cover, lows will most likely only fall into the 50s tonight across the area.
136 PM EDT Fri Oct 14 2022 High pressure will extend across the region through the weekend.
(This afternoon through Saturday) An expansive longwave trough is centered over Ontario and extending south across the eastern CONUS placing Central AL under deep westerly flow with surface ridging building east along the Gulf Coast. Lows will be a few degrees warmer, but still went cooler due to the dry airmass with upper 40s east to lower 50s west. We warm up tomorrow as heights rise with ridging continuing to dominate. Look for highs in the lower to mid 80s. A weak cold front will slow down near the Tennessee Valley late tomorrow as its initial upper-level support rotates away to the northeast, and any rain associated with it will remain northwest of the forecast area heading into the evening hours.
Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop late afternoon or evening, with The strong longwave trough, seen over northern Wisconsin on water vapor, shifts southeastward to Michigan by Saturday morning.
A warmer airmass at 925/850mb will produce less lake enhanced snowfall and will need to be more synoptically driven to produce the amounts seen this morning of more than an inch which appears unlikely. Lows in the cloud covered areas of NW MN will be in the low 30s with clearer areas in the upper 20s. The synoptic pattern should feature continued troughing in the eastern half of the CONUS/CAN and ridging/rex blocking within the Intermountain West.
/ISSUED 530 AM MDT Fri Oct 14 2022/ A highly amplified upper level pattern exists across North America with a deep closed low situated in the vicinity of the Great Lakes and a Rex type (high over low) block along the west coast. A frontal boundary preceding the cooler airmass moves south through the area tonight with a period of increased northerly winds and gusts to around 20 mph likely as the boundary pushes through overnight.
/Tonight through Friday/ Key Messages: - - Highly amplified synoptic pattern is in place with deep cyclonic flow over the eastern two-thirds of the conus, downstream of a ridge axis up the Pacific Coast. A weak warm front crosses the state Saturday.
An upper ridge centered to our west will continue to provide our region with dry conditions, light winds, and above- normal temperatures.
This is in response to the persistent Rex Blocking pattern that has set up across the west coast as a closed low pressure system stays parked off the California/Mexico border.
1121 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 Surface analysis late this morning places a broad 1018 mb ridge of high pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast United States.