Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
310 PM MST THU JUN 2 2016 A high pressure system is forecast to build over the region and provide a strong warming trend the remainder of the week and weekend.
1230 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016 A weak cold front/stationary front was bisecting the CWA from southwest to northeast early this morning.
Asside from some high clouds, skies will remain clear tonight as a result of this very dry low level air amidst a building low level anticyclone. This will support nighttime mins into the low 50s outside of urban Detroit. The 12Z model suite continue to show long wave trough amplification across the northern plains and upper Miss Valley Friday and Fri night on the nose of the upper jet now diving across the Pacific Northwest.
a cold front is located to the north of the area near the Ohio River. The cold front will continue to slowly sag southward into the area on Friday with PW values remaining elevated. The only difference will the upper level ridging across the region ahead of a closed low across Eastern Texas.
Upper ridging will continue across the CWA today. In addition, the upper ridge will help to suppress some shower and thunderstorm activity but isolated to scattered storms are still expected during the afternoon. The higher chance of showers and thunderstorms is across the eastern portion of the CWA.
1126 AM MDT THU JUN 2 2016 A blocky mid latitude weather pattern is setting up with high pressure over the western Atlantic complimenting a building ridge across the Intermountain West to end this week. High pressure amplifies over the desert southwest through the weekend bringing hot and dry conditions to the region.
Upper low over SW Canada is currently tracking into Alberta/Saskatchewan. For Friday, system shifts east with flow turning more northwesterly ahead of building ridge to the west.
Have placed the higher POP through mid day in our northern counties. At upper levels, Kentucky sits in a split flow regime with a upper low in the northern stream lifting east-northeast across the Great Lakes region and a nearly stationary southern stream upper low over Texas. The northern stream upper low is expected to push into Quebec this afternoon, draping a cold frontal boundary somewhere along the northern Kentucky border. At the surface, the cold front will shift towards northeast Kentucky this afternoon providing a focus for potentially stronger storms. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday with afternoon highs in the lower 80s both today and Friday.
207 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 Aviation A cold front near Detroit will continue to push eastward away from the region today. Meanwhile, an area of high pressure centered over the upper plains will build into the Great Lakes Region. Another cold front will track through Michigan over the weekend.
200 PM MDT THU JUN 2 2016 Upper level high pressure building over the desert southwest will result in warm and dry weather across north central and northeastern Colorado over the next couple of days.
and Friday upper low north of lake superior will move towards james bay today. an upper trough approaching from the northern plains will bring increasing clouds friday but weak upper ridging and dry air in the low levels will probably keep much of the area dry through the afternoon.
301 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms into Friday morning. A brief dry period Friday night will be followed by a wet weekend as low pressure returns.
548 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 A weakening cold front will move through the region later today into the overnight before stalling over southern Pa Friday.
1134 AM MDT THU JUN 2 2016 The cutoff upper low over west central Texas moves slowly into the Gulf Coast region of Texas by Friday night. During this time, the upper ridge amplifies over the western U. , extending northward through the Intermountain region as a short wave trough rides over the ridge and deepens over the northern plains.
132 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 A weakening cold front will move through the region today into the overnight before stalling over southern Pa Friday.
Elsewhere, it will be a little cooler today than yesterday, but still a good 5-10 degrees F warmer than normal.
Low VFR ceilings will continue to spread southward behind a cold front, with MVFR ceilings affecting terminals more sporadically through 02/16Z. /issued 359 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2016/ An upper level low pressure area across west Texas will move into central Texas today taking with it the heaviest rainfall and flash flooding potential. The upper low is forecast to stall Friday across central Texas and then move south toward south Texas and northeast Mexico this weekend.
Winds will turn to the south and increase as the high moves away. With mostly sunny skies, expect that the highs this afternoon will be in the lower 80s. Expect at least scattered thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening along a southeastward tracking cold front. An upper level short wave trough will track across North Dakota with a trailing sfc cold front tracking southeast across our forecast area by Friday afternoon. Dewpoints will be in the lower 60s along the front and with afternoon sunshine expect destabilization in a narrow axis along the front, evident by the 1500- 2000 J/KG MLCAPE values. There will be at least a marginal threat of a few severe thunderstorms along the cold front by late Friday.
High pressure will begin to build over north central Idaho and western Montana Friday with the clouds gradually decreasing and temperatures beginning to warm.
An upper level low to the southwest of Arkansas will continue to rotate showers and scattered thunderstorms into the state from the south. A stalled cold frontal boundary remains across southern MO early this morning. The cloud cover and precip will keep temperatures suppressed and have trended towards the cooler model solutions.
These sites are also seeing the MVFR cigs persisting into the afternoon, but as the rain shield pulls away, the cigs should climb into the low end VFR range. Models indicate the upper trough axis, which satellite imagery indicates is currently over the Big Bend, will continue to slowly move over and then east of West Central Texas, during the next 24 hours.
At the surface, high pressure was centered overhead. This will send a strong cold front into the area.
150 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 A cold front will move across the area today. Upper low to pass thru the Great Lakes and open up in the westerly flow. This will allow a weak surface cold front over to push southeast across ILN/s fa this afternoon. Temperatures look good with highs in the lower and middle 80s. Temperatures are expected to be cooler today than the past few days with additional cloud cover in place. Went with high temperatures in the low to middle 80s.
/Today/ An area of high pressure currently in place will slowly begin to slide east of the region today, with return flow into the CWA aloft. Given the light/drier flow in the lower levels, with the weak lift aloft have cut back on pops across the west/north for today.
636 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms into Friday morning. A brief dry period Friday night will be followed by a wet weekend as low pressure returns.
341 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016 This next round of showers and storms continue to move northwest across the area this evening pivoting around the big upper low slowly moving east through south Texas.
Weak low level high pressure remains in place over the southeast with mostly zonal flow aloft. Low level winds from the south will allow some inland movement of the sea breeze boundary, but the convection is expected to stay mostly confined to the eastern Big Bend and south central Georgia, where there is a weak, shallow theta E ridge. Without much relief from cloud cover or rainfall, temperatures will soar into the low to mid 90s once again this afternoon. Overnight, winds will go calm and temperatures will fall to the low 70s.
As these showers fade away, the area of high pressure over the desert southwest will be able to amplify over the area.
243 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016 Upper low has finally made its way into Texas, leading to more widespread rains, some of it locally heavy per expectations in the vicinity of the quasi-stationary front, spreading into parts of southeast Oklahoma.
/Issued 414 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2016/ A closed upper low over the Panhandles and west Texas will track slowly east and south into central Texas by 00Z Friday. Drier conditions expected after 06Z Friday as the closed upper low continues to pull further and further east away from the forecast area. An upper high over southern California and the southwestern states Friday will build eastward towards the Panhandles allowing for a drier northeasterly to northerly upper flow.
However, rainfall coverage across the Arklatex has been gradually diminishing with the highest rainfall rates around a quarter to a half an inch per hour over the Kisatchie Forests in West Central Louisiana at this time.
A large slow moving upper trough continues to meander across the Texas Hill Country, bringing waves of heavy rainfall and flooding to portions of the Southern Plains. Weak upper ridging resides from the southern and central Gulf of Mexico into the western Atlantic, as Tropical Depression Debbie lingers just off the North Carolina coast. Abundant low level moisture content and modest upper ridging should make for a fairly mild night with lows in the low to mid 70s. Mid level heights may increase slightly as the upper ridge intensifies. This may result in afternoon highs a few degrees warmer than today, and it would not be out of the question for a couple of locations to reach the mid 90s. This activity again looks to converge somewhere over the interior peninsula and shift westward into the night within the low level easterly flow.
Return flow and warm advection should get maximum temperatures up to average values with cooler readings over the far east last to see warm advection and clearing. Trough closes off across Mn Friday night and with trailing surface boundary arcing NW across the region potential for rain continues although should diminish during the overnight.
225 PM MST THU JUN 2 2016 A high pressure system is forecast to build over the region and provide a strong warming trend the remainder of the week and weekend.
1246 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016 Broad, disorganized and weak high pressure extends from the High Plains through the Mid MO Valley. Streaks of cirrus associated with the northern periphery of a rather large upper trough over TX will prevent us from seeing crystal clear skies.
Areas along the eastern side of the CWA looking to still be close enough to ridging subsidence, so carrying much lower rain chances there. The upper low over Texas likely only slowly drift eastward to east Texas on Friday but should erode remnants of ridge over the area back east which will allow for increased coverage.
SW winds will be on the increase out ahead of the nearing trough stretching from E MT through W SD. By 03Z the trough will be over the W half of the state, with the warm front nosing into our area.
A ridge of high pressure will keep very warm inland conditions across our region with some cooling at the coast due to sea-breezes.
High temperatures will warm into the lower 80s today and stay in that vicinity through the weekend. With south winds tongiht at 5 to 8 kts and slightly higher dewpoints, temperatures will only drop into the upper 50s as opposed to the lower 50s of late. Any stronger warming will be delayed by the passage of the aforementioned weak cold front Friday night.
A slow moving cold front will approach over the weekend.
234 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 A weakening cold front will move through the region later today into the overnight before stalling over southern Pa Friday.
416 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016 Slow moving upper level low has made it into Texas and is currently spinning near the Big Bend area. That upper level low will continue to meander and drift south over the next few days and a ridge will build across the Southwest. With the proximity of the upper low to the south, mean flow aloft will remain more northeasterly, and will keep the Panhandles dry for the next few days.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms remain possible over the higher terrain through 03z.
Moisture will circulate into the forecast area on the backside of high pressure centered off the southeast coast and ahead of a cold front slowly approaching from the west.
A cold front will drop south across the forecast area Friday morning, markedly reducing chances for afternoon convection except for perhaps within stronger frontal convergence and orographics along the Laramie Range.
203 PM MDT THU JUN 2 2016 18z water vapor imagery/rap analysis indicated short wave trough bisecting the cwa and moving to the southeast. Visible imagery showed cu field developing across central portions of the area and can actually see small area of enhancement moving southeast south of Oakley which may be tied to aforementioned short wave trough. Overnight a cold front will begin to reach the area as next weak disturbance approaches.
1225 PM MDT THU JUN 2 2016 18z water vapor imagery/rap analysis indicated short wave trough bisecting the cwa and moving to the southeast. Visible imagery showed cu field developing across central portions of the area and can actually see small area of enhancement moving southeast south of Oakley which may be tied to aforementioned short wave trough. Overnight a cold front will begin to reeach the area as next weak disturbance approaches. At the beginning of the period there is a defined ridge and trough pattern over the USA; with the ridge in the west. The GFS and Euro still differ on how they are handling the movement of the closed upper level low over California and Nevada, which will impact the chances for precipitation during the period.
Medium Mid level trough proggd to shift from the Dakotas into MN and amplify a bit.
lowered high temperatures into the lower 80s to mid 80s near and east of I-65 and north of the Tennessee River.
211 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016 Showers continue to develop across the area as an upper low moves east. The upper low is forecast to stall over east Texas and weaken this weekend.
215 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 Cooler and drier air has settled across the region through Friday night.
However, from 12Z KCRP sounding, a saturated column, little to no cap, and a convective temperature in the low 80s will aide in isolated to scattered showers this afternoon, especially across the Coastal Bend.
A significant warming trend will continue into the weekend as high pressure builds over Central California. Temperatures are running some 3-5 DEG F cooler across most of the San Joaquin Valley while temepratures elsewhere are running fairly close to yday's readings. Some high clouds that have blown off of a weak upper level low pressure system off the Baja coast near 29N/130W have streamed through our area today, but the lower and mid levels remain dry across our area. The 12Z WRF is indicating the large upper ridge that has been responsible for the triple digit heat across much of our area will re-amplify just to the east of our area tonight and Friday with a light southerly flow prevailing over the region.
Water vapor imagery shows an upper low currently located over the Southern Edwards plateau and Rio Grande plains this afternoon. At the surface, a cold front was located roughly along a Del Rio to San Marcos to Georgetown line. The above mentioned upper low is forecast to drift slowly northeast through tonight. We are seeing some dry air wrap around the western periphery of this upper low. For Friday night, the upper low is forecast to reverse course and begin a southward drift.
Afternoon convection today has been a bit more widespread thanks in part to increasing moisture over the region as well as closer proximity to the upper low/trough located across northern Texas. Another round of showers and storms will occur tomorrow as the upper low/trough will continue to sit to our west.
1043 AM PDT THU JUN 2 2016 A cold front will usher in breezy and cooler weather for today with isolated showers possible. /Pelatti 18Z TAFS: Cold front passage today will keep the southwest winds blowing and gusty.
Could also see some showers pop overnight and early Friday morning along the warm front stretching from west central to southeast MN. The majority of CAMS do indicate we will see additional development back to the west as the cold front enters western Minnesota.
Cold front currently nearing KCMH-KCVG line. However kept mostly chance pops going all night with the cold front sinking in and stalling. Overall pattern has an upper level trough digging sharply south over Il and will slowly move eastward.
Very quiet weather will last through tonight, as high pressure is over head. Tonight, with a warm advection aloft, we should see slightly warmer lows compared to now. Lows of mid 50s northeast to lower 60s farther southwest are expected, which is near the cooler guidance.
Upper low over TX will continue to bring periods of showers and storms to the region thru the TAF period. Upper low near the Big Bend of TX will continue to move slowly east. and slightly stronger low-level flow along the eastern periphery of the TX upper low will provide some enhanced lift as well. A northern stream upper low will shift into the Great Lakes region for the weekend.
/issued 325 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2016/ Cut-off upper low has drifted ewd into the TX panhandle over the last 24 hours and has continued to bring waves of convection to much of TX.
This morning's 12Z KKEY RAOB observation sampled southeasterlies from the surface through 700 MB, highlighting the building subtropical ridge to our northeast. The dry northwesterlies persist aloft and are associated with the filling upper tropospheric trough. An upper level low is spinning across Texas. meanwhile the subtropical ridge is stretching its legs across the western North Atlantic.
1225 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016 Ridging over the northeast conus ahead of trough over the great lakes. A ridge over the desert southwest with broad weak ridging into central Canada. Closed low over the gulf of Alaska with a trough into the Pacific Northwest.
1246 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016 ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INTERIM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EARLY THIS MORNING. CLOSED LOW/TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS WAS PRODUCING SOME VIGOROUS CONVECTION/SPORADIC SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLANS. THIS LOW WILL BE OUR WEATHER-MAKER THROUGH THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. WITH WINDS PICKING UP OUT OF THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. PLAN ON OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO NEAR 70.
1224 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016 Moist, unstable airmass coupled with warm front lifting north into the forecast area is setting the stage for convective initiation stretching from around Cedar County, MO west-northwestward into north-central KS. Dewpoints are already into the lower 60s this morning for many locations, and upper 60s are knocking on the doorstep in southwestern KS, along with SBCAPE of 1000+ J/kg analyzed there as well. Better dynamics continues to look to linger back behind the cold front coming through with a narrow corridor of better shear immediately ahead of the frontal boundary.
at least until late tonight-early tmrw, when cold front makes approach. Thu night thru Fri then looking cooler/drier per post frontal airmass.
Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along the southward sagging cold front later this afternoon. Weak cold front extends from far northwestern Osage county into southwest Ok late this morning.
Over the course of the short term forecast period, the flow aloft changes from a multi-model low pressure pattern to a well- established northwest flow aloft.
A cold front associated with weakening low pressure over ND will slide east through southern WI overnight. The nose of the low level jet (LLJ) will point into southern WI during this time. Showers and thunderstorms will peak in coverage in southern WI around midnight tonight and then taper off from west to east as drier air works in behind the cold front.
ISSUED AT 3:22 AM EDT WED MAY 11, 2016 A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY EXPAND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THOUGHOUT THE DAY, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENRTAL INDIANA. THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT, KEEPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT (EASTERN COUNTIES).
312 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016 Temperatures will trend modestly warmer through the end of the week.
328 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016 Surface cold front stretches from just east of Ponca City to near Altus this afternoon and the boundary will make slow progress southeast through tonight. Front will continue to push south of the area Thursday with thunderstorm chances tapering off from north to south and temps a few degrees cooler.
243 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016 A trough is moving across the DELMARVA coast this afternoon and the dominant Atlantic high pressure is moving eastward ahead of this trough.
236 PM MDT WED MAY 11 2016 17Z water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated trough in place across northern plains, with clear closed circulation over North Dakota. Of more importance to the Goodland CWA is the next short wave trough moving over the four corners around the base of large scale trough. With afternoon destabilization and period of large scale ascent ahead of this trough, expect showers and thunderstorms to develop over portions of Colorado and drift to the east/southeast across the area.
Dewpoint temperatures have mixed a little to the upper 60s to low 70s but that still combines with the temperature for heat index values in the low 90s. Water vapor satellite imagery shows one short wave trough departing the area with another over the southern Rockies which should push into Texas tomorrow allowing for W/NW flow aloft.
As high pressure remains in control, chances of rain will stay low keeping conditions dry.
1258 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016 UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. CLOSED LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS. UPPER TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS. COOLER AIR THAN ADVERTISED WITH THE AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.
WSR-88D SHOWING COLD FRONT HAVING MOVED OUT OR JUST ABOUT MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREADING EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS ALL OF THE PANHANDLES BY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE PANHANDLES BY 18Z THURSDAY WITH ANY LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE ENDING BY THAT TIME.
132 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016 High pressure and dry air will build into the region through Thursday before sliding offshore Thursday night.
A weak warm front that thunderstorms are forming on over southwest MO early this morning will lift northward this morning. There is some potential that scattered thunderstorms will develop along this front this morning into early this afternoon as strong moisture convergence develops underneath increasing ascent from approaching mid level trough. Highs should reach the lower to mid 80s. Britt Expect convection to be ongoing after 00Z Thursday ahead of the cold front. Temperatures should be noticeably cooler with lower humidity behind the front.
319 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016 Frontal boundary has lifted north as a warm front, and the earlier convection has dissipated.
1238 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016 MAIN CONCERN TODAY AND TONIGHT IS THE COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA STARTING EARLY THIS MORNING IN WESTERN MN. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.