Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Issued 255 PM EST Tue Dec 29 2015 The short term period will be characterized by troughing across the center of the country and ridging off the east coast. A PV anomaly rounding the base of the trough today will eject to the northeast tonight and cross the upper midwest through today. Temperatures will continue to run slightly above normal tomorrow with highs ranging from the mid 40s in southern IN to the lower 50s in south central KY. Tomorrow's will range from the lower to upper 30s.
In a similar fashion to yesterday, the lower levels remain somewhat moist into at least midday, though modest west to northwest winds bring gradual drying late today into tonight.
/issued 848 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015/ Update to add fog and freezing fog to the forecast, and issue a Freezing Fog Advisory. The sky was clear over most of the area, except over portions of SE NM where freezing fog has developed around Artesia and into central and northern Lea county. Expect more fog to develop due to the clear skies, light wind and moist or snow covered ground with more freezing fog developing through late tonight generally along and north of Interstate 20. /issued 1231 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015/ Series of upper troughs move over the area keeping cold weather in the forecast. An upper trough will swing over the area but not bring much with it.
THE LOW CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE WHERE LITTLE IF ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT HAS A DEEP ENOUGH/COLD ENOUGH SATURATED LAYER TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A BROAD UPPER TROF WITH SEVERAL WEAK CUTOFF CIRCULATIONS LOLLYGAGGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHER PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
This cold air mass has settled over the region with afternoon temperatures today struggling to climb above the freezing mark for all but the West Plains area. The remainder of the week will be quiet weather wise with temperatures only warming into the 30s each afternoon and falling into the lower 20s and teens each night. The weekend still looks to see a warming trend with temperatures in the lower 40s for high and 20s for lows.
301 AM EST WED DEC 30 2015 A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE FIRST WEEK OF THE NEW YEAR. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW JUST TO OUR SE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR AND RIDGING STARTS TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS MAY MIX OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS TOWARDS DAWN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WV MOUNTIANS.
A BROADER UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THOUGH A 100-KT JET STREAK WAS NOTED BEHIND THE TROUGH IN SOUTHERN CA. WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERS OVER MI AND IN NORTHEAST NM.
THE MORNING RAOBS INDICATED PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BOTH IN THE LOWER LAYERS NEAR H85 IN ADDITION TO THE H7-H5 LAYERS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH SHOULD LIMIT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING TRACE AMOUNTS TO PERHAPS 1/2 INCH AMOUNTS. THE MEAN MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AREA IS PROGGED TO SHEAR EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES OVER THE WEEKEND AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CONUS.
However, temperature and dewpoint spread are shrinking and fog and freezing fog will be developing during the early morning hours. The mid level clouds are indicated to move north to along and east of a Sonora to Brownwood line this evening, before pushing eastward as an upper trough moves over. The upper trough will also bring some mid/high level clouds to Big Country this evening.
LEFT IN PATCHY FOG IN DVL BASIN THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER THAN PREV NIGHTS AS NOTICING SOME DRIER AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXISTS OVER MT CURRENTLY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HRRR DOES SHOW SOME FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE LOWER NORTH PLATTE RIVER FROM DOUGLAS TO BRIDGEPORT AROUND 12Z. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING ACROSS AND THEN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA.
HOWEVER MAY BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG OR EVEN SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH BROAD UPPER TROF OVERHEAD. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA.
DID NOT WANT TO TAKE THE LOWS DOWN MUCH. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ACCOMPANYING THIS LOW WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
AS TEMPS CLIMB TO NEAR FREEZING TODAY. THINK MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAYS HIGHS. AN ELONGATED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE THU-FRI TIME FRAME AS THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. KETCHAM RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE NEW YEARS WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT.
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THIS EVENING.
WITH AL AREAS ON THE PLAINS BELOW FREEZING. MAINLY OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CONTDVD. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY.
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO MOSTLY KEPT FREEZING FOG AT BAY. WE EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY FREEZING FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND WE/VE ADDED A MENTION TO THE FORECAST. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM ERN KS/WRN MO SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST TEXAS.
AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS HOLD OVER THE WEST. AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE EAST. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM EAST TN SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
LIGHT RAINS AND LOWERED VIS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOWERED CIGS AT KCSV THROUGH 16-17Z/WEDNESDAY.
THIS PATTERN IS SLOWLY REPLACED WITH A REX BLOCKING PATTERN IN THE FAR WEST. A LONG WAYS OUT BUT INDICATIONS ARE FOR A SURFACE CYCLONE AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY.
Low pressure has moved over Michigan this afternoon. However, a surface trof is moving around the low and through the region today.
353 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015 Water vapor imagery shows a broad trough dominating much the Nation early this morning, with the mean trough axis to our west over the Rockies. Once toady's snow moves out the forecast currently looks dry through next Tuesday as the prevailing flow across the Nation evolves into a split as a West Coast ridge develops this coming weekend.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOR A PERIOD OF DRY. A STRENGTHENING 500 MB RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MID LEVEL TROUGHING KICKS OUT INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE STORY OF THE REST OF THIS WEEK WILL BE THE BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
The initial trough west/ridge east pattern will shift to a ridge west/trough east orientation.
312 AM EST WED DEC 30 2015 THE WARM FRONT TO OUR EAST IS POISED TO SHIFT BACK NW-WARD INTO EASTERN KY BY MORNING. CONTINUING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LEND ITSELF TO POPS LINGERING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT AS WELL BEFORE FINALLY DIMINISHING.
LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT QUICKLY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT. REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. BUT WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR INCLUDING NORTHEASTERN MENDOCINO COUNTY. AND AREAS AROUND WILLITS ARE CURRENTLY BELOW FREEZING.
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN REMAINS MOIST THIS EVENING, AND SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGED OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VARYING AMOUNTS OF LOW CLOUDINESS AND PATCHY FREEZING FOG. ALSO HAVE RAISED TEMPS IN MANY AREAS FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED. DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE WRN CONUS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A NARROW VORTICITY CHANNEL DROPPING OUT OF CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/MID MS VLY REGION.
DEVELOPMENT OF THE INVERTED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE AXIS DEVELOPING NORTHWARD.
At 00z Wednesday on 500mb trough was located over eastern New Mexico and another upper level trough/low was present over the Pacific Northwest. A surface to 850mb ridge axis extended from central Kansas into Iowa. Thicknesses and 850 mb temperatures remain essentially stagnant, ensuring afternoon highs remain well below normal, struggling to reach freezing.
ANOTHER WEAK MID-LVL TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WED. BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE CENTRAL US ROCKIES SPLITS BY THIS WEEKEND WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WHILE RIDGING EXPANDS ACROSS WESTERN CONUS OVER THE TOP OF CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
500 AM EST WED DEC 30 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW OVER NAMERICA WITH THE SRN STREAM FEATURING A TROF THAT DOMINATES MOST OF THE W HALF OF THE CONUS.
THE STRANDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SLOWING MOVING OUT OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH THIS IS LIKELY TO BE SHORT LIVED AS GENERAL TROUGHINESS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U. DUNN AN UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS THIS EVENING. SOME BRIEF LIGHT SNOW WAS ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH. DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT BUT SOME MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
trof begins working northeast, with a very subtle increase in echoes also noted from nw OK into central KS. The main trof currently stretches across the four-corners region into Mexico. This leading s/w is expected to help spread moisture newd into the area and shud allow at least some light snow ahead of the main trof. With the main trof becoming negatively tilted and stronger with both the 00z and 12z run from today, have higher confidence that wrn and nrn portions of the CWA will see an accumulating snow event tonight and into early Wed morning. Will have to wait and see how the leading s/w and the deeper trof phase and how much moisture is available with evening raobs.
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. SLIGHTLY WARMER NE AND SE MOUNTAINS. TONIGHT CLOUDS LINGER BUT NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME COLDER AIR WITH LOWS INTHE LOWER TO MID 40S.
338 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015 ISENTROPIC LIFT UNDERWAY AS WARM FRONT IS INDICATED ON SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM MOBILE BAY TO MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PADRE ISLAND TEXAS. RATHER RICH WARM SECTOR AIR POISED JUST OFF THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER AND MAY ACTUALLY ENCROACH LAND AREAS BRIEFLY THIS MORNING BEFORE BEING FLUSHED OUT BY SHALLOW HIGH PRESSURE SURGE TO BEGIN DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT TO SHUT DOWN PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.
315 AM EST WED DEC 30 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BRIEFLY TODAY. A BROAD WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING MIXED PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT.
1140 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015 FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW REMAINED ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THE BASE OF A TROUGH WAS ROUNDING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE TROUGH AT 500HPA LIFTS NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PLAY A TRICKY ROLE IN THE LOW TEMPS. UPPED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE TOWARD THE HIGH END OF GUIDANCE AS THE MODELS UNDERESTIMATED TUESDAYS HIGHS. WEAK ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE MAY HELP WITH WARMER TEMPS.
205 AM MST WED DEC 30 2015 05Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN LARGER FLOW MOVING OVER THE CWA. ALTHOUGH WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW CANNOT SAY FOR SURE THAT IT WILL BE COMPLETELY DRY.
358 AM EST WED DEC 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER LABRADOR WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS RESUMED YET AGAIN BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE EXPANSIVE, DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES, SO THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC FETCH IS UNDERWAY YET AGAIN. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS ENOUGH TO GET RAIN TONIGHT, BUT THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT SHORT-TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING. SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE HUNTSVILLE CWFA ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR THE BEST RAIN CHANCES AND THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, THOUGH OVERALL TOTALS SHOULD NOT BE VERY HEAVY (UP TO 1/2 INCH).
The upper level trough that was crossing western Kansas earlier this morning will move quickly northeast into the Upper Great Lakes region as the next in a series of upper level disturbances crosses the Central Rockies and moves out into the Western High Plains.
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AS A SECOND SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SECOND SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AIDING FURTHER IN THE LIFTING.
TEMPERATURE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WERE DICTATED BY AMOUNT OF SKY COVER AND SNOWPACK CONTRASTING FROM 8 BELOW AT CHADRON AND 10 BELOW AT PINE RIDGE TO 22 AT BROKEN BOW. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AS AN NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ADVANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR DRAINAGE WITHIN THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY ALSO FAVORS LOWS FALLING TO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER MONTANA THIS MORNING.
THIS IS OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR AND GULF MOISTURE TO ADVANCE TO THE NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIAN FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL QUICKLY DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE COLUMN BY MORNING AS MOISTURE PEELS OFF TO THE EAST. A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES. NOTHING MORE THAN A VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY WITH NO ACCUMULATION WILL BE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA NOR THE RIDGES.
THE CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT FOR ALL AREAS.
1050 PM MST TUE DEC 29 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY. DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA THIS EVENING.
PATTERN WILL REMAIN SIMILAR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE OOZING IN FROM THE PLAINS UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT.
EXTENSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES SOUTH TO THE MEXICO HIGHLANDS. LOBES OF JET LEVEL ENERGY SWINGING DROP THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH SUCH AS THE ONE MODELS SHOW PASSING OVER COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND AREAS OF SNOW CONTINUING IN THE NORTHERN COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY AT LEAST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINOR AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST WEST-SOUTHWEST SLOPES. COULD SEE HIGH COUNTRY SNOWFALL PICK UP DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION AND A SHIFT BACK TO W- NWLY FLOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE 700-600MB TROUGH AXIS. WOULD NOT EXPECT THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPS WITH HIGHS ONLY A DEG OR TWO DEG F WARMER THAN TODAY.
MOUNTAIN TOP TEMPERATURES WERE AT THE LOWER PORTION OF THE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH REGION AND THESE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
331 AM EST WED DEC 30 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BRIEFLY TODAY. A BROAD WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING MIXED PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT.
310 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES LARGE UPPER TROUGH/CIRCULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
A WEAK PATTERN THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED ACROSS THE REGION HAS LEFT LIGHT/VARIABLE TO TOTALLY CALM WINDS ACROSS THE CWA. AND AT 3 AM OBS RANGED FROM THE LOWER/MID 20S. DRIVEN BY A BROAD TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE ROCKIES/PLAINS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING THE PRIMARY FEATURE.
ANOTHER WEAK MID-LVL TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WED.
The deep trough over much of the CONUS currently will slide to the Eastern Seaboard later this week.
303 AM EST WED DEC 30 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. AND THEN LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT.
A fairly deep trough over the Southern Rockies will kick out into the Plains tonight, weakening steadily as it does so. Upper pattern behind Wednesday morning's system will stay fairly steady for much of the remainder of the week, with high-amplitude ridging over the West Coast and flat troughing downstream across the eastern two thirds of the U.
1153 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015 A BLOCKED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING HAS FACILITATED A PROLONGED BAND OF SNOW FROM NEAR MANKATO TO THE FAR SOUTHERN TWIN CITIES METRO TO EAU CLAIRE TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD SUPPLY JUST ENOUGH ENERGY TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW.
MCCLURE 18Z SFC DATA HAS LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WITH A TROF EXTENDING WEST FROM THE LOW INTO NORTHERN IOWA.
348 AM EST WED DEC 30 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING.
1234 AM EST WED DEC 30 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PSUH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
UPPER HIGH CENTERED TO THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN AN EASTWARD MIGRATION ON M0NDAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/STREAMLINE DATA SUGGEST/DEPICT AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION. EXPECT THE FOREGIONG UPPER TROUGH TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION OVER AT LEAST THE WRN CWA THIS EVENING/EARLY TNGT BEFORE DISSIPATING (NAM DETERMINISTIC PROG CIN VALUES TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY 03Z MON.
STRONG UPDRAFT ROTATION/0-1KM HELICITY COULD ALSO BE ENHANCED SHOULD COOLER LAKE ENVIRONMENT SLOW NWD PUSH OF SFC WARM FNTL BNDRY/LAKE ENHANCED TRIPLE POINT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS CDFNT PROVIDING FAIR WX TUE. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST WED. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS EVE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY AFTN MONDAY SHIFTING WINDS FROM S TO SW. SW WINDS SHOULD GUST INTO THE 25-30KT RANGE MONDAY AFTN AS A SEASONALLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE UPR MIDWEST. AIRMASS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS LOW.
Strong to Severe Storms Possible Late This Afternoon into This The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features an expansive ridge building in across the southern CONUS, whose reach extends up into portions of southern KY. The high DCAPE environment suggest localized damaging wind gusts will be the main threat, although some quarter-sized hail will be possible as well given the strong instability in place. Once this moves through, the rest of the overnight period will be mainly dry as upper-level ridging builds overhead. The ridge will really take hold Monday into Monday night, bringing mostly dry and hot conditions. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices in excess of 100 degrees at times.
QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CANNOT RULE SCT TSTMS AND ISOLD SVR UNTIL THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
AN UPPER LEVEL WEAK TROUGH COULD STILL SPARK ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR CSV.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE OPPRESSIVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THROUGH MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE WEST. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. WITH A BLOCKING RIDGE IN PLACE AT THE SFC ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST REGION. WITH A SUBSIDENT AIR FLOW PATTERN ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SW STATES. THE EXCEPTION IS A WEAK INVERTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS LOCATED OVER ERN TX WHICH IS RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS AS FAR NE AS AR/NRN MS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE PATTERN OUT W GRADUALLY TRANSLATES EWD. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVER THE SE REGION.
CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND ARE PROJECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S TONIGHT. FRONT WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.
/ISSUED 204 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2015/ The subtropical ridge is centered across wrn NM today with deeper/stronger NE flow aloft across the CWFA. By Monday PM the chance for SHRA/TSRA will increase across the Lower Trans Pecos as an inverted trof moves west.
THE RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS IS MIGRATING EAST TODAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST OK AND WEST CENTRAL AR THRU ABOUT 03Z.
1159 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015 LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY THEN SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
/ISSUED 343 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2015/ (Tonight and Monday) Upper trough, oriented from Del Rio to Dallas, will push south into South Texas Monday, as upper level high pressure builds in from the northwest and west.
WILL GO WITH A WARMER NIGHT IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 95 74 98 / 10 10 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 72 94 72 96 / 20 20 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 71 94 73 97 / 20 10 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 91 68 93 / 30 20 20 20.
WITH A BLOCKING RIDGE IN PLACE AT THE SFC ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST REGION. WITH A SUBSIDENT AIR FLOW PATTERN ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SW STATES. THE EXCEPTION IS A WEAK INVERTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS LOCATED OVER ERN TX WHICH IS RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS AS FAR NE AS AR/NRN MS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE PATTERN OUT W GRADUALLY TRANSLATES EWD. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVER THE SE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE WEST. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
Cloud cover from previous convection today has kept temps cooler overall from the 70s where precip fell to near 90 degrees over much of central and east central areas. Gradually diminishing cloud cover and enhanced mixing in the lower levels will hold overnight lows warm in the lower to middle 70s.
Highs should rebound back into the lower to middle 90s with hottest air over west central/northwest MO and eastern KS.
THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.