Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THIS LOW CLOUD FIELD MAY MIX OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SOUTH FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TODAY BRINGING IN GOOD GULF MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO BE OVER 1. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE ROCKIES WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOWN THROUGH WEST TEXAS. DISTURBANCE EJECTING OUTWARD FROM THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
236 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MODELS HAVE THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW TO MOVE FROM THE GREAT BASIN EASTWARD TO OVER THE WESTERN COLORADO BORDER BY 12Z SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRETTY WEAK OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. BUT AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH MORE OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER TROUGH. COOL WEATHER SHOULD COVER ALL THE CWA WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER US. THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN BEHIND IT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COLORADO.
1014 AM PDT Fri May 15 2015 Variable clouds and mainly mountain showers or thunderstorms through the coming week as a series of weak low pressure systems move across California. Pacific low pressure system now centered off the Socal coast and moving to the southeast. As the low center pushes eastward through Socal today. GFS model shows slightly unstable conditions this afternoon so may see some isolated thunderstorm activity but this will likely be confined to the higher elevations since the main trough axis will be east of the CWA by this afternoon. Upper low continues eastward into the eastern Great Basin on Saturday but wrap around moisture around back side of low could still bring some shower activity to the Sierra.
EXPECT BRUNT OF SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND AREA THRU NEXT WORK WEEK. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THRU AT LEAST TUE OF NEXT WORK WEEK. UNTIL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. AS AN ENHANCEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DYNAMICS TAKES PLACE SAT INTO SUN. WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED ON SUN PER BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POTENTIAL AND UPPER LEVEL BROAD TROUGHING DYNAMICS. EXPECT A TRANSITION FROM UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DYNAMICS TO MORE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN AS NEXT WORK WEEK PROGRESSES. WITH LOWS TONIGHT MAYBE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES BEGINNING TO DRIFT EWD.
152 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 1144 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THOUGH THE GFS HAS BEEN NAILING THE LOW TEMPERATURES THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE COOLER NAM'S STRONG RADIATIONAL AFFECTS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A RESPECTABLE EQUATORWARD REACH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. IT IS WITHIN THE LOWERED HEIGHTS THAT ORPHANED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS MIRED OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF THE STABLE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING. LOSS OF SKY FRACTION AND LONGWAVE RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S BY MORNING.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE MAP INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS A LONG WAVE TROUGH REACHING WELL INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHORT WAVE UNDULATIONS HAVE ROUNDED THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH. THESE CONVECTION ENHANCING FEATURES HAVE PLENTY OF FUEL TO WORK WITH IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE.
True surface front appears to be just through Goodland with dryline extending to the SSE, and a weak prefrontal trof having become commingled with the outflow across the central part of the state. CAPE dissipates quickly as the evening progresses, and wind shear remains on the low end around 30kts 0-6km. Lows tonight with clouds and precip remain around 70, with highs tomorrow in the low to middle 80s.
WITH LAST BIT OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING TO THE EAST/SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. POCKET OF DRIER AIR RESIDES ACROSS MICHIGAN ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD LAYER. WHILE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY WORKS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
The 1 pm regional surface analysis showed the front which brought us some slight relief from the late summer heat and humidity was beginning to slowly translate westward as a weak warm front.
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS AN AN AREA OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY. DUE TO THIS, PLAN TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE TROUGH AND CHANCE POPS EAST. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INITIALLY DOMINATE PATTERN OVER OUR CWA.
253 PM MST THU AUG 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION IS BEGINNING TO BRING IN SOME DRIER CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH RES MODELS PICKED UP ON THAT AND HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH BETTER PLACES ITSELF SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND SLIGHTLY MORE WEST.
Could see some late night showers and storms across portions of northeast Oklahoma again tonight as a cold front advances into central Kansas.
440 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015 22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK TROUGH OVER EASTERN MT INTO NORTHWEST SD/NORTHEAST WY. THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA. LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WITH INVERTED TROF THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S. THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
350 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
CTR OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER ACROSS N AND W TX THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT MAINTAINING A NLY FLOW ALOFT ALOFT. MN TEMPS WILL BE COOLER TONIGHT WITH HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER DUE TO THE DRIER ENVIRNOMENT.
215 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT OT THE EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. TO THE MID-UPPER 70S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND HIGHS WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-8 DEG WARMER THAN TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.
THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY. DUE TO THIS, PLAN TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE TROUGH AND CHANCE POPS EAST. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S.
A WEAK U/L TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS WEDGED BETWEEN AN U/L RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE.
144 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
346 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA YESTERDAY THROUGH THIS MORNING. NIGHTTIME LOWS SHOULD BE A TAD BIT COOLER TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE.
ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT DAY ONGOING WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WITH AN EXTREMELY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. BETWEEN SOUTHWEST CONUS HIGH AND EAST COAST TROFFING. WILL BEGIN TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ASSOCIATED RIDGING OVER THE AREA SHIFTS TO THE EAST. MODELS SUGGESTING RESULT WILL BE A POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER TROF FROM THE NORTHEAST CONUS. MODELS FURTHER TRANSITION AFOREMENTIONED TROF INTO AN ANTICYCLONE BY MID WEEK OVER EAST TEXAS. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN STATES EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND FILL. LEAVING AN UPPER LOW WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE LOWER LEVELS.
252 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 A VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TODAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT THIS TREND OF LOWERING POPS TO CONTINUE AS AXIS OF UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
101 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 HYDRO HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPERATURES TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. SATELLITE DOES SHOW INDICATIONS THAT IT IS TRYING TO ERODE AS 850MB RIDGING TAKES HOLD. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S LOOK REASONABLE IF WE CAN GET SOME SUNSHINE. EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE SFC RIDGING TODAY A MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST IS NOT A SLAM DUNK. RELATED TO THERMAL TROUGHING STILL EXTENDING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM OUR OLD UPPER LOW IN ERN CANADA.
240 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COOLER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS OVER THE AREA.
TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION. AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. MORE WIDESPREAD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TODAY OVER THE HIGH SIERRA DUE TO REMNANT MONSOON MOISTURE. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN MEXICO. WHILE A TROUGH WAS ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE NCAL COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND DOWN INTO MID TN. BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS MID TN. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT 1-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. WARMING TREND COMMENCES TODAY, AS UPPER TROUGH OVER OUR AREA STARTS TO WEAKEN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD BREAK DOWN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY.
ADDITIONAL CIRRUS WILL SPILL S OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL SHIFT E INTO THE MIDWEST/SRN PLAINS. OVER THE RIDGE AND THROUGH THE PLAINS.
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA (GAG/WWR) SHORTLY AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THESE SPILL ONTO THE PLAINS BUT THERE IS AT LEAST WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO AID THAT CAUSE. SO REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO RELY ON DAYTIME HEATING AND MID LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD OCCUR WHERE CAP WILL BE WEAKEST IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN AREAS THAT SEE MORE SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE COOLING ALOFT AND INCREASE OF CLOUDS/CONVECTION. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER AZ/NEW MX ON FRIDAY WITH A WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING MORE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE WITH A WEAK SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR THE WEEKEND.
219 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 AVIATION HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPERATURES TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. SATELLITE DOES SHOW INDICATIONS THAT IT IS TRYING TO ERODE AS 850MB RIDGING TAKES HOLD. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S LOOK REASONABLE IF WE CAN GET SOME SUNSHINE. EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE SFC RIDGING TODAY A MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST IS NOT A SLAM DUNK. RELATED TO THERMAL TROUGHING STILL EXTENDING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM OUR OLD UPPER LOW IN ERN CANADA.
423 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
/ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/ SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SWWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAINTAINING OUR COOL DRY AIRMASS WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS AND RIDGING OVER THE SRN ROCKIES MAINTAINING A DRY NRLY FLOW ALOFT. DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER NEWD OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY THE WEEKEND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW IS PROGGED TO SPLIT OFF FROM THE ERN CONUS TROF.
(Friday night through Thursday) West Central Texas will remain under the influence of an upper ridge through the coming week with the continuation of a dry forecast. Temperatures will generally be close to seasonal norms with afternoon highs in the mid 90s under partly to mostly sunny skies, and morning lows in the lower 70s under partly to mostly clear skies.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS EARLY TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS SLIDING EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL SLOPE. THE QUESTIONS ON WHERE THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS AND WHERE IT MOVES. INSTEAD OF TRACKING SOME LARGE JET OR WATCHING THE SLOW EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LOW EXITING A DEEP TROF. LOWS UNDER THE INCREASED CLOUDS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN PAST NIGHTS. GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.
200 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY TONIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE E PAC WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TOWARD THE TWO STATE AREA LATER TODAY. THE LOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WHICH COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLD TSRA OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ALOFT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
417 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 AVIATION SECTION UPDATED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THEN ONLY A TAD FOR THE HIGH COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY'S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 1-2 C WARMER THAN THIS AFTERNOON'S.
ON FRI AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVR THE AREA WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS. DOMINANT FEATURES WILL BE THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U. AND A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE PACNW. OUR LOCAL WEATHER WILL BE DETERMINED BY SUBTLE SHIFTS IN THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE.
Best chances for convection will be KCNM near the end of the forecast period as an upper-lvl trough enters SE NM. A short wave trough topping the subtropical ridge over the southern High Plains will progress out over upper Midwest Friday. The associated surface cyclone/anticyclone couplet will send a weak cold front down across east central NM east across the TX South Plains by max heating tomorrow.
At the surface, a cold front will sweep through the region by Friday evening.
321 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015 500 MB SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS WEEKEND.
COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THE RIDGE CONTINUED A LIGHT NE FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS RELAXES SOMEWHAT. UPPER RIDGING OTHERWISE WAS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/DESERT SW AND OFF OF THE EAST COAST.
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 19Z SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR KMCK. A WARM FRONT CURVED S/SE FROM THE LOW DOWN INTO CNTRL KS. WHILE A COLD FRONT WAS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED FROM WRN NE INTO WRN KS. PCPN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM W TO E LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. PATTERN AT THE START OF THIS SHOULD HAVE A 500 MB RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NM TO WI AND A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH FROM WRN CANADA DOWN INTO CNTRL CA.
618 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL INVADE THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH DOWN THE PLAINS.
A short wave trough topping the subtropical ridge over the southern High Plains will progress out over upper Midwest Friday. The associated surface cyclone/anticyclone couplet will send a weak cold front down across east central NM east across the TX South Plains by max heating tomorrow.
Expect elevated convection to lessen with time as the low level jet diminishes by later this morning or early afternoon.
RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S IN AREAS WHERE THE SUN IS MORE PREVALENT. TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER WY. LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST SD/NORTHERN NE. WARM AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW ARE KEEPING SOUTH CENTRAL SD IN THE 70S EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH COOLER AIR STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WESTERN CWA. WITH MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE CWA. SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA AS THE LOW TRANSITIONS EASTWARD. BUT WITH INCOMING COOLER AIR AND CLOUDY/RAINY CONDITIONS. COOLER TEMPS THAN THE PREDICTED MID 70S TO MID 80S ARE POSSIBLE. THERMAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND OVER THE REGION FRIDAY.
131 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 A VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TODAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT THIS TREND OF LOWERING POPS TO CONTINUE AS AXIS OF UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
WE/LL CONTINUE TO FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE LOW-LEVELS. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO TODAY AND SHIFTING SLIGHTLY FARTHER WESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND PANHANDLE.
128 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OHIO FRIDAY NIGHT.
332 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE RIDGING REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN ROCKIES. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE THE AREA TO FOCUS ON. TOMORROW THE RIDGE BEGINS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BRING WARM/DRY AIR FROM NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO TO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BRING A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS. AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD FORM THIS AFTERNOON NEAR AND AHEAD OF A WEAK LEE TROUGH IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO BUT BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE EAST INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA UNTIL AFTER 00Z. WEAKENING COLD FRONT SHOULD BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY AND SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH. RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST AND WEAKENS BY MID WEEK AND DEEPER MOISTURE ENCROACHES ON THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.
UPPER LEVEL TROF TO REMAIN OVER THE APPALACHIANS WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MAIN UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR WEST WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BEGINS TO BUILD WESTWARD TOWARDS THE SE COAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET GOT CONVECTION GOING EARLY TODAY WITH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY FOCUSING ALONG OUR COASTAL COUNTIES AS OF 3 PM.
303 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT OT THE EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. TO THE MID-UPPER 70S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND HIGHS WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-8 DEG WARMER THAN TODAY. RESULTING IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE RETURN OF WARMER.
High pressure will shift east to the East Coast during the next couple of days.
WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET ACROSS THE REGION AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
At 12z Thursday a 500mb trough was located over Colorado and Wyoming. 40 to 50 meter 500mb 12 hour height falls were observed east of the upper trough at North Platte and Denver. A 700mb trough was located over eastern Colorado and western Nebraska. A trough of low pressure extended from north to south across far eastern Colorado. A SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING WILL ROUND THE EDGE OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTH. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS FROM HAYS, DOWN TO NEAR DODGE CITY, AND WRAPPING BACK UP TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS STAFFORD COUNTY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE MIDATLANTIC TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL START TO BUILD TOWARD THE EAST COAST.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY A TROUGH AXIS FROM OHIO VALLEY TO NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A BROAD RIDGE WAS LOCATED FROM EAST PACIFIC TO SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SHORT WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER ON TOP OF THE RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE WEST FROM OHIO VALLEY TO EAST TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION IS BEGINNING TO BRING IN SOME DRIER CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH RES MODELS PICKED UP ON THAT AND HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH BETTER PLACES ITSELF SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND SLIGHTLY MORE WEST.
106 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT AMPLE DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TODAY PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S BUT A SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO CAP OFF THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. SHOULD SEE THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF AND MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF.
UPPER LEVEL TROF TO REMAIN OVER THE APPACHAINS WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST. MAIN UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR WEST WILL BEGIN GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS A LITTLE FURTHER WESTWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MODELS INDICATE TWO RIDGES. TROUGHINESS WILL PERSIST.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL EDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE ERIKA WILL BE ROUNDING THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.