Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Wet roads are likely to freeze up tonight as temperatures fall below freezing and into the 20s. TWH Upper ridging dominates the weather pattern for the rest of the week to bring about rising temperatures and breezy winds.
417 PM MST Tue Feb 15 2022 Snow will increase in coverage and intensity across northern areas this evening w/ the passage of the cold front, becoming more wide- spread by mid to late Wednesday morning as moist low-level upslope becomes established along & east of the Laramie Range. Still looks to be a mainly upslope event as the bulk of the dynamic support is expected to remain well to the south & west even though the trough appears to be slightly more in phase than previous days. 4 inch over the high- country and around 0. Model soundings suggest some threat for patchy freezing drizzle w/ saturation in the 0C to -10C layer, mainly between 09z and 15z Wed, but there may be enough saturation aloft to yield ice crystal growth for more of a wintry mix earlier on.
909 PM EST Tue Feb 15 2022 High pressure is centered over the region. The high will move off the Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday.
334 PM MST Tue Feb 15 2022 Upper trough stretches across the western CONUS, placing the northern plains in WSW flow. At the surface, low pressure is over eastern WY, with a warm front west to east across western SD, and a cold front pushing in from the west. Breezy northwesterly winds are accompanying the cold front, with some light precipitation trailing behind.
As high pressure moves off to the east and a front strengthens to our west, gusty south winds will develop.
The responsible low pressure trough clears the region, but become modified a bit by a subtle, re-enforcing disturbance from the Canadian Rockies. By Wednesday night, the western US ridge of high pressure builds up strong enough to push away most of the energy and cold air, but a few lingering isolated showers are not entire out of the question through the rest of the week.
A southeast wind of 10kt or less will continue overnight, keeping lows in the lower to middle 40s for most locations.
338 AM EST Wed Feb 16 2022 High pressure will continue to push offshore, bringing warmer temperatures through the end of the week. Rain chances increase Thursday night as a cold front approaches from the west.
Wednesday the ridge will weaken over the area, as a strong short wave and associated cold front approach the region. A negatively tilted upper trough will swing across the Desert Southwest Wednesday night and across the Southern Plains. This will result in dewpoints increasing into the lower to mid 60s by daybreak on Thursday as well as overnight lows ranging from the lower 60s in the west to upper 50s in the east. Cooler air will move in in its wake but this won't last for long as southerly flow resumes quickly.
A strong short wave rounding the base of a trough on Wednesday evening will prolong significant weather for the region. This system will represent more of a spring like system with a sharp dryline during the day and a Pacific cold front sweeping through in the evening. After the trough axis moves east, moisture will attempt to wrap around the system early Thursday morning. Falling temperatures behind the Pacific cold front would allow for possible light snow during this time period with greatest chances for the extreme southern Texas Panhandle. A cold front will quickly follow Thursday morning keeping temperatures well below seasonal averages during the day on Thursday.
An approaching trough over the northern Great Lakes and high pressure lingering off the East Coast will create a tight pressure gradient over the Midwest and extend into the Ohio River Valley mid- day.
A cold front will sweep through the region early Wednesday morning. The synoptic setup with this system has been a challenging one for the models to pin down, due to the phasing of a trough moving out the Southwest with a trough tracking along the Canadian Border. Since dry air infusion in the lower levels could lead to a very sharp cutoff between several inches of snow and nothing on the northern edge of the snow band, this creates a challenging forecast for places like Falls City. Another aspect of this storm will be the northerly winds that develop Wednesday night and Thursday morning as the core of the low bypasses us to the south. Current guidance shows a nice 850 mb jet just north of the low, suggesting a potential for wind gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range.
Upper trough stretches across the western CONUS, placing the northern plains in WSW flow. At the surface, low pressure is over eastern WY, with a warm front west to east across western SD, and a cold front pushing in from the west. Breezy northwesterly winds are accompanying the cold front, with some light precipitation trailing behind.
This evening through tonight - Warm air advection today has provided a breezy, warmer, and mostly cloudy day. Wednesday and Thursday - A cold front will pass through Wednesday morning and we could see some drizzle/freezing drizzle along or ahead the this front. Also behind the front, another arctic high pressure will begin moving in and be over the Upper Midwest by Thursday. Generally warmer to the south (southern MN and west WI) and colder to the north (central MN and west central MN). As the high moves out on Thursday night winds will return to the south leading us into our next warm up.
The surge of warmer air and moisture feed from the Gulf of Mexico will precede widespread, locally heavy rainfall on Thursday.
The cold front will move through the area this evening into tonight and bring much colder temperatures. Did trend a little cooler for low temperatures tomorrow across the northern Sandhills where some of the colder air will infiltrate the area, keeping temperatures in the mid to upper 20s. As an upper level trof moves into the area and spreads eastward we will get a glancing blast of cold air Wednesday night into Thursday.
high cloudiness will dissipate some this evening (mainly along and south of I-70) before increasing again as an upper level trough approaches from the northwest. At the surface, a cold front is expected to enter the northern portions of the forecast area shortly before midnight, pushing through the entire area over the remainder of the night. Low temperatures are expected to be in the lower to upper 20s. the large upper trough slowly advances toward the area during the day then into the northern plains through west Texas overnight. High temperatures are expected to range from the middle 30s to lower 40s in far eastern Colorado to the lower to middle 40s elsewhere. For the overnight hours, saturation of the 850-500mb layer increases and spreads gradually southeast as the upper trough moves in.
The long awaited cold front will soon traverse across the Kansas prairie later this morning. Pattern recognition and experience shows this is another day where cooler is better. Once you get cooler post-frontal low level northeast flow, it's typically game over for warm temperatures a surging southward front. Much cooler lows are expected heading into the morning hours with teens. It should be cooler across the southeast zones for any snowpack. The strong N to NE morning winds should gradually weaken during the day as high pressure builds in from the north.
The models have slowed a bit bringing the cold front through the mid- state Thu evening. Most locations may see gusts 40-45mph ahead of this cold front. SFC/LL high pressure and flat upper flow however will provide us with a dry weekend with quickly moderating temps. As high pressure moves off to the east and a front strengthens to our west, gusty south winds will develop.
High pressure building along the eastern seaboard moves offshore, and expands over the Sunshine State through Thursday while upper level short wave over the Atlantic tracks east.
942 PM MST Tue Feb 15 2022 Snow will increase in coverage and intensity across northern areas this evening w/ the passage of the cold front, becoming more wide- spread by mid to late Wednesday morning as moist low-level upslope becomes established along & east of the Laramie Range. Still looks to be a mainly upslope event as the bulk of the dynamic support is expected to remain well to the south & west even though the trough appears to be slightly more in phase than previous days. 4 inch over the high- country and around 0. Model soundings suggest some threat for patchy freezing drizzle w/ saturation in the 0C to -10C layer, mainly between 09z and 15z Wed, but there may be enough saturation aloft to yield ice crystal growth for more of a wintry mix earlier on.
1223 AM EST Wed Feb 16 2022 High pressure is centered over the region. The high will move off the Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday. A strong cold front will approach Thursday, crossing the forecast area Thursday night.
Another weak short wave trough will move through tomorrow, bringing light snow to the mountains, potentially flurries to the valleys, and breezy conditions to all areas. Snow showers will redevelop Wednesday morning and taper off by late afternoon, mainly across the higher terrain. However, latest models indicate light snow could briefly impact the lower elevations Wednesday morning. Today has been mostly sunny, breezy/windy, and cool behind last night's cold front. Next up is a weak short wave trough from the north that will spread clouds and a chance of light snow showers into our CWA Wednesday, mainly over mountains on the Idaho side.
A southeast wind of 10kt or less will continue overnight, keeping lows in the lower to middle 40s for most locations. This surface cyclone should reach NE Oklahoma and the western Ozarks Thursday morning, then be situated somewhere near northern Kentucky/southern Ohio by the evening. A cold front with this system should reach NW Alabama in the early evening.
With the airmass remaining moist in the low levels, can expect to see some mist and/or fog development overnight as well for portions of the lowlands.
A secondary trough associated with the initial closed upper level low that moved through yesterday will continue to move into the forecast area throughout the day today. Widespread accumulations will be a T-1 inch including the first band this morning, with the Deep Creek, Sublett, and Albion mountain ranges seeing the heaviest snow of 3 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts along ridgelines and summits. Snow activity after 6Z Thursday/11:00PM MST Wednesday will out of the area as the outer extent of a high pressure ridge fills in behind this system.
This is due to a high pressure that is situated just off the southern New England coast, which has been strengthening over the last 24 hours. The position of this high has allowed for winds to become more easterly and therefore has been drawing in more moisture into the boundary layer.
High pressure will build into the Mid- South for the end of the week into the early part of the weekend.
1112 PM CST Tue Feb 15 2022 High clouds streaming across the forecast area this eveninG with a narrow band of light snow extending into the Mobridge area.
1051 PM CST Tue Feb 15 2022 Strong southerly winds will gradually diminish late this afternoon into the evening as a cold front moves in from the northwest. With a mild stat to the evening and the expected timing of the cold front lows will not be overly cold, ranging from the teens north of I-90 to the 20s to the south. Confidence not very high however as forcing in the fairly shallow dendritic layer not too bad but moisture in the lower levels is pretty low. Forcing in the fairly shallow dendritic layer not too bad but moisture in the lower levels is pretty low.
/Issued 302 PM EST Tue Feb 15 2022/ This afternoon into tomorrow southwesterly flow aloft will be maintained across the area in advance of an upper level trough expected to move through the area later this week. In addition the SW flow aloft and increased moisture will aid in increased could coverage over the next 48 hours along with warmer overnight and high temperatures tomorrow. Models in good agreement that pre-frontal trof/line would be moving into GA Thursday evening between 00z and 06Z. 70" Thursday evening from 00z to 06z, which per sounding climatology is atop the highest values measured at FFC in February. Given the high values, would expect heavy rainfall with the line as it moves through.
/issued 431 AM CST Wed Feb 16 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): Deepening low pressure across the Southern Plains strengthens the pressure gradient into mid morning, increasing winds along the coastal counties of Deep South Texas. The pressure gradient weakens into Thursday as a cold front arrives with little in the way of CAA through the day Thursday. Lows overnight will remain slightly above normal in the low 60s. There is some question to sea fog this evening into Thursday as well, with cooler water temperatures and persistent, strong southerly winds. Have hoisted a Fire Watch for Thursday afternoon, with RH values tanking into the low teens and potentially single digits across Zapata, Jim Hogg, and Starr counties, the driest counties in Deep South Texas.
329 AM CST Wed Feb 16 2022 As of 3am, a cold front has passed through nearly the entire forecast area, and currently resides from hear Hays to to Concordia, KS.
High pressure builds in from the northwest today bringing reinforcing cold air along with the upper trough. On Thursday, high pressure will push farther east as low pressure begins to influence central SD.
As of 3am, a cold front has passed through nearly the entire forecast area, and currently resides from hear Hays to to Concordia, KS.
A cold front is currently moving through the area with winds picking up from the northwest behind the front. With high pressure in control on Thursday expect plenty of sun, but a cold day with highs in the single digits to lower teens. Another cold night on tap for Thursday night, but as the high moves off to the east, winds will go around to the south overnight and we will begin to warm towards morning.
910 AM EST Wed Feb 16 2022 High pressure will continue to push offshore, bringing warmer temperatures through the end of the week. Rain chances increase Thursday night as a cold front approaches from the west.
205 AM MST Wed Feb 16 2022 Current surface map shows cold front dropping through the central plains. Northern stream trof is moving through the northern plains, bringing some light snow to the area.
A storm system will continue to impact the high country through early Thursday morning, bringing gusty winds, mountain snow, and valley rain showers. The low pressure center is currently over southern California near the Mexico border and is forecast to move east- southeastward through this afternoon and into New Mexico by early evening.
400 AM MST Wed Feb 16 2022 Satellite imagery shows mid to high level moisture moving up from the southwest ahead of the trough axis currently extending from the cutoff low along the Southern California-Arizona border northeast over the Uinta Basin and up to Riverton WY. Satellite and surface observations show the cold front is currently moving through the Salt Lake City area moving southeast at about 45 mph. Overall, expect generally 2 to 6 inches in the western Colorado mountains with locally higher amounts possible at the higher peaks.
The only difference noticed with this package is a slightly slower timing of the convection and cold front. The strong southerly winds will continue to bring an increase in moisture to the Mid-South with dewpoints expected to reach into the lower 60s by Thursday morning just in time for convection to begin pushing in.
Precipitation will clear across most of the area as the cold front moves through late this afternoon into this evening.
The low will cross Oklahoma tonight, and will drag a cold front into the region on Thursday.
An upper level trough across the Desert Southwest will approach West Central Texas late tonight into Thursday morning.
Eastern Pacific ridge will continue building east over NorCal today. Gradient will remain enhanced between the high and departing trough over the Plains States.
702 AM EST Wed Feb 16 2022 Short wave trough off the FL east coast this morning slides off to the east as flat ridging tracks across the Gulf of Mexico toward the state. 0 inch range with the higher amounts to the south. High pressure dominates with easterly winds generally 15 knots or less for the next couple of days.
The long awaited cold front will soon traverse across the Kansas prairie later this morning. Pattern recognition and experience shows this is another day where cooler is better. Once you get cooler post-frontal low level northeast flow, it's typically game over for warm temperatures with a surging southward front. Much cooler lows are expected heading into the morning hours with teens. It should be cooler across the southeast zones for any snowpack. The strong N to NE morning winds should gradually weaken during the day as high pressure builds in from the north.
A strong inversion has setup as strong southerly flow advects warmer air aloft. This has resulted in cold air across sheltered valley locations and warmer air across the plateau and ridgetops. Southerly winds will be gusty at times today across the region due to the tightening pressure gradient ahead of a cold front arriving late Thursday. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 54 69 36 49 / 0 10 90 90 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 52 70 36 46 / 0 0 80 100 0 Oak Ridge, TN 65 52 68 35 47 / 0 0 90 100 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 47 66 37 46 / 0 0 60 100 20 TN.
Seeing some stronger wind gusts behind the secondary cold front at Brandon Manitoba, with a visibility at 2. Some of this lower end blowing and drifting is likely along and west of the Valley this morning. It appears a secondary cold front is associated with the Jamestown to Pembina cloud deck. The actual cold front looks to be somewhere along the Canadian border.
504 AM MST Wed Feb 16 2022 Satellite imagery shows mid to high level moisture moving up from the southwest ahead of the trough axis currently extending from the cutoff low along the Southern California-Arizona border northeast over the Uinta Basin and up to Riverton WY. Satellite and surface observations show the cold front is currently moving through the Salt Lake City area moving southeast at about 45 mph. Overall, expect generally 2 to 6 inches in the western Colorado mountains with locally higher amounts possible at the higher peaks.
It appears a secondary cold front is associated with the Jamestown to Pembina cloud deck. The actual cold front looks to be somewhere along the Canadian border.
Available CAM guidance suggests cloud cover and shower activity will wane in the late morning or early afternoon hours, and given the dry air upstream and mid-level ridging, this seems appropriate.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): Deepening low pressure across the Southern Plains strengthens the pressure gradient into mid morning, increasing winds along the coastal counties of Deep South Texas. The pressure gradient weakens into Thursday as a cold front arrives with little in the way of CAA through the day Thursday. Lows overnight will remain slightly above normal in the low 60s. There is some question to sea fog this evening into Thursday as well, with cooler water temperatures and persistent, strong southerly winds. Have hoisted a Fire Watch for Thursday afternoon, with RH values tanking into the low teens and potentially single digits across Zapata, Jim Hogg, and Starr counties, the driest counties in Deep South Texas.
A surface cold front was pushing southward through the area, seen roughly along a Lincoln to Omaha line at 3 AM. A cutoff low was spinning over southern California while another trough was moving into Montana. However, shouldn't amount to much more than a couple tenths of an inch, with dry air in the low levels to contend with. With the strong north winds expect much cooler weather than previous days with temperatures expected to only rise a few degrees from those this morning. Precip should exit by Thursday afternoon with RH values progged to get down in the lower to mid 20s.
An upper level trough will move southeast from the nrn Rockies as another system over the swrn US moves eastward. Meanwhile, at the sfc, one cold front has already moved across nern CO early this morning. For tonight, the upper level trough will move southeast across the area. Light snowfall will occur Thursday morning as the trough exits our region.
438 AM MST Wed Feb 16 2022 Current surface map shows cold front dropping through the central plains. Northern stream trof is moving through the northern plains, bringing some light snow to the area.
The upper low that brought unsettled weather to the region Wednesday has shifted east today leaving behind cooler temperatures along with lingering northerly breezes that will remain through Thursday. The closed upper low that brought unsettled weather to the region is currently tracking east through southern California. As this low shift further east overnight and early Wednesday, these showers will gradually end, however, a few light showers may remain through the morning hours across far southern Mohave County. Another weak piece of energy will drop south along the backside of the upper trough as it exits to the east. Strongest winds are expected to remain down the lower Colorado River Valley, but at this time it looks like the strongest winds will remain confined to Laughlin/Bullhead City where some local gusts to around 35 mph will develop.
625 AM EST Wed Feb 16 2022 High pressure will continue to push offshore, bringing warmer temperatures through the end of the week. Rain chances increase Thursday night as a cold front approaches from the west.
The models have slowed a bit bringing the cold front through the mid- state Thu evening. Most locations may see gusts 40-45mph ahead of this cold front. SFC/LL high pressure and flat upper flow however will provide us with a dry weekend with quickly moderating temps. For the next few hours the low level jet is still strong, so kept a mention of low level wind shear in all tafs until 15z.
Short wave trough from the north has proved better organized than models predicted yesterday.
1233 PM EST Wed Feb 16 2022 High pressure will continue to push offshore, bringing warmer temperatures through the end of the week. Rain chances increase Thursday night as a cold front approaches from the west.
The models have slowed a bit bringing the cold front through the mid- state Thu evening. Most locations may see gusts 40-45mph ahead of this cold front. SFC/LL high pressure and flat upper flow however will provide us with a dry weekend with quickly moderating temps. A strong cold front will approach CKV around 12Z tomorrow and move through middle TN through the day.
Southerly winds will be gusty at times today across the region due to the tightening pressure gradient ahead of a cold front arriving late Thursday. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 54 69 36 49 / 0 0 90 90 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 52 70 36 46 / 0 0 80 100 0 Oak Ridge, TN 65 52 68 35 47 / 0 0 90 100 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 47 66 37 46 / 0 0 60 100 20 TN.
An upper trof over the western CONUS takes on a pronounced positive tilt while spreading across the central states through Thursday. This system brings a strong cold front towards the forecast area that is expected to move through Thursday night. The result of these changes in the temperature profile across the area will be that surface based convection with the full utilization of the highly sheared environment looks most likely over interior southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama on Thursday, then convection becomes progressively elevated then suppressed over the remainder of the area as the 850-700 mb warm layer becomes more pronounced. VFR conditions over much of the area, with the exception of MVFR ceilings over southeast Mississippi and extreme southwest Alabama, will lower to IFR/MVFR over the entire area through Thursday morning ahead of a cold front approaching from the west.
239 PM EST Wed Feb 16 2022 High pressure in place across the eastern seaboard this afternoon.
High pressure is just offshore with northwest flow aloft over Western Washington.