Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1111 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017 H5 analysis from this morning had a maturing cyclone located over northwestern Oklahoma, just east of the panhandle. A broad area of deformation precipitation had developed this afternoon on the northern and northwestern periphery of the low and was backing into the forecast area from the east. Ending of precipitation in association with the upper level low, as well as snow accumulations for tonight are the main forecast concerns.
The areas under the current Winter Storm Warning are still in line to receive the highest snowfall and will not make any changes to headlines at this time. Cooler readings can be expected east underneath that precip/cloud shield with highs in the 40s to near 50 degrees. Highs from the James valley and points west should reach the low 60s.
735 PM MST Sun Apr 30 2017 Dry conditions, mostly clear skies, and generally light winds will prevail throughout the week as high pressure builds over the Southwest.
545 PM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017 Region will remain in cool northwesterly flow the next couple of days as troughiness encompasses the eastern 2/3rds of the US and weak ridging builds over the eastern Pacific Ocean. Many locations as of 3pm are showing temps about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday, with forecast guidance for low temps tonight indicating temps 10 degrees warmer in many spots than last night thanks to the expected cloud cover.
short term models agreeing on scattered convection from upper level low redeveloping for late this afternoon and early evening east of the Mississippi River. Clouds will partially clear from west to east tonight with breezy southwest winds keeping the low levels well mixed.
New showers and thunderstorms pushing up from northeast Mississippi and northwestern Alabama, ahead of approaching cold front, means our temporary lull in precip over western areas is about to come to a close. Area of showers is now moving through Middle Tennessee ahead of an approaching cold front.
West-northwesterly flow along with a warming trend will continue for the next couple days as we transition into high pressure by the middle of the week. Warmer than normal temps, lighter winds (though still occasionally breezy), and dry weather will be in place across northern Arizona through much of the coming week.
This and the lowest level of the boundary layer being above freezing, has for the most part ended the snow fall in central Kansas.
1052 PM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017 Limited moisture in north northwest flow aloft will bring some light showers, mainly snow in the mountains and rain in the lower elevations of the north and west Tonight and Monday.
Quiet weather is in store for South Texas as high pressure drifts off to the east tonight and onshore flow resumes. High pressure taking control over the region will result in a quite benign short term forecast. will likely halt cooling along the coast well before sunrise and keep temperatures in the lower 60s within 10-15 miles of the coastline. Cloud free skies will continue through tomorrow, and with a southerly surface flow and southwest to south 850mb flow anticipate temperatures much warmer than today, likely back to the lower 90s west and mid and upper 80s east. As onshore flow increases Monday night, dpts rapidly increase into the lower and mid 60s.
1049 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017 H5 analysis from this morning had a maturing cyclone located over northwestern Oklahoma, just east of the panhandle. A broad area of deformation precipitation had developed this afternoon on the northern and northwestern periphery of the low and was backing into the forecast area from the east. Ending of precipitation in association with the upper level low, as well as snow accumulations for tonight are the main forecast concerns.
As the low continues moving northeast tonight. As the low heads towards the Great Lakes on Monday afternoon. Lows tonight will generally be in the 40s with highs Monday in the low to mid 60s.
/issued 332 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/ (Tonight and Monday) Look for cooler temperatures to continue tonight, with a warming trend beginning tomorrow. (Monday Night through Sunday) Much warmer morning lows are expected Monday with temperatures in the mid 50s.
836 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017 New showers and thunderstorms pushing up from northeast Mississippi and northwestern Alabama, ahead of approaching cold front, means our temporary lull in precip over western areas is about to come to a close. The cold front is still west of MEM, and the HRRR does show a second line of convection moving into Middle Tennessee from the southwest later this evening, so look for another round of SHRA/TSRA in a few hours.
Line expected to make progress through the remainder of the forecast area through early afternoon in southerly flow regime associated with deepening plains upper low.
The cold front is still west of MEM, and the HRRR does show a second line of convection moving into Middle Tennessee from the southwest later this evening, so look for another round of SHRA/TSRA in a few hours.
518 PM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017 Latest upper level analysis shows the closed low along the KS/OK border moving east. Regarding current warnings, have canceled the high wind warning due to the threat for high winds ending. Monday will be warmer as northwest flow moves over the forecast area. Despite going cooler than almost all guidance, highs maybe too warm, especially where the heavy snowfall occurred. Winds will be a bit breezy west of the deeper snow field where the air will be warmer.
529 PM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017 Afternoon water vapor loop showed the intense low pressure system spinning over the south central Plains. Visible images detected the western edge of the higher clouds over the eastern NE panhandle, with scattered mid and high clouds spreading southeast across the western 2/3 of WY. Temperatures rebounded quickly from sub-freezing morning lows to the 40s and 50s.
1034 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017 A cold front will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms Monday, followed by much cooler temperatures through late week. Warm and humid conditions expected overnight in southwest flow ahead of an approaching cold front. Outside of thunderstorms increasing pressure gradient with daytime mixing will allow for gusty winds, with cooler temperatures.
746 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017 A cold front will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms Monday, followed by much cooler temperatures through late week. Warm and humid conditions expected overnight in southwest flow ahead of an approaching cold front. Outside of thunderstorms increasing pressure gradient with daytime mixing will allow for gusty winds, with cooler temperatures.
Low VFR to MVFR ceilings will continue across the region tonight with NE OK into far NW AR seeing the lower ceilings. Upper level low continues to rotate eastward along the KS/OK border late this afternoon and evening, and will begin to lift northeast later tonight with scattered showers diminishing. Strong winds will decrease some after sunset but could still see gusts of 20 to 30 mph through morning behind the low. /Issued 257 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/ Deep upper cyclone was spinning along the KS/OK border with isolated cold-core showers impacting parts of northeast OK. This activity will gradually diminish by early evening as the upper low pulls away. Warmer conditions expected into Monday.
The main upper low is still spinning along the KS/OK border, although there have been some lead precip bands extending into eastern SD and central MN. Both the high-res and short range models keep any accumulating precip south of our counties until after 06Z, some closer to 09Z or later. There will be some 850mb frontogenesis overnight, along with some increasing synoptic lift as the upper low lifts into IA. Deformation zone will stay over our southeastern counties into Monday as the upper low lifts northeast into WI. Precip should taper off completely Monday evening as the low pressure system pulls east.
Radar showing some light snow falling over the higher mountain passes but little if any precip over the high mountain valleys. Could see some light accumulations over the high mountains passes given the modest orographic flow and rather shallow moisture depth. A few of the high resolution models showing some patchy fog developing later tnt over low lying areas of Weld and Morgan counties. Winds should drop off significantly once the mixing decreases early this evening as the low level forcing for the winds is getting out of the state. With the mountaintop winds still fairly strong, the moisture should create a few inches of orographic snow on the ridges. Still some weak mid level subsidence around through 06z Monday night, then weak ascent ahead of the next approaching trough.
And yet, the Keys remain within the persistent grip of a robust and stubborn subtropical ridge centered near Bermuda.
Strong high pressure aloft over the eastern Pacific will expand eastward into the desert southwest later this week.
MVFR ceilings over central and northern Oklahoma will slowly move northeast with the upper low moving in to the midwestern states early Monday.
915 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017 High pressure will remain offshore the southeast seaboard overnight with a cold front making its way through the western FL panhandle late tonight.
Gusty northwest winds behind a strong cold front continue across south central Texas this afternoon.
Upper level low continues to rotate eastward along the KS/OK border late this afternoon and evening, and will begin to lift northeast later tonight with scattered showers diminishing. Strong winds will decrease some after sunset but could still see gusts of 20 to 30 mph through morning behind the low. /Issued 257 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/ Deep upper cyclone was spinning along the KS/OK border with isolated cold-core showers impacting parts of northeast OK. This activity will gradually diminish by early evening as the upper low pulls away. Warmer conditions expected into Monday.
Will go with a blend of MOS guidance for lows tonight but lean towards the high end of the guidance Monday as south to southeast winds will prevail across the CWA Mon afternoon with not much in the way of cloud cover. Moisture will return across the area late Mon night and temperatures will be warmer Mon night compared to tonight with cloud cover returning.
Winds are still southerly to 800 mb as the cold front is close, but has not yet pushed through. In addition, weak band of showers and thunderstorms has developed in between the line and the cold front, which is just entering the west edge of the CWA. Lower dew points will bring much cooler overnight temperatures the next two nights, 10 to 15 degrees cooler than the last couple nights.
841 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017 High pressure off the coast will result in increasing moisture overnight. A strong cold front will move through the region Monday evening.
That will shift the strongest pressure gradient farther away from the highway 83 corridor, and bring the axis of stronger surface winds over the eastern half of our area for the late afternoon and evening hours. Models are accounting for the snow in the west by discounting highs around 20 degrees between the warmer, near 70F far southeast, and our northwest counties. The trend is for warmer and drier continuing into the weekend. IFR ceilings will gradually transition to MVR later in the evening as the upper low which produced the winter storms moves away from central Kansas.
This line of developing convection should spread eastward across CWA during this evening with the cold front. Between a half and 1 inch of rain is possible during this afternoon and evening, before showers and thunderstorms chances diminish overnight behind cold front. Cooler highs in the lower 50s northern CWA and upper 50s in southeast IL. Models still deepen an upper level trof over the central and southern Plains Wed and into the mid/lower MS river valley on Thu.
/Issued 404 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/ The closed upper low over southern and eastern Kansas will continue to move away from the forecast area tonight. Cut back highs Monday from MOS guidance numbers as snowpack will result in much cooler temps mainly across the northwest half of the forecast area.
All of this is courtesy of the 500 hPa ridge parked over North Central Mexico today and edging just a hair west on Friday. Limited moisture will ensure little in the way of upper clouds, save from some thin cirrus spilling south over the ridge from any leftover evening convection across North Texas.
High pressure and upper level ridging remains in place over the southeast into Saturday, as multiple disturbances move into the western portion of the ridge over the area.
353 AM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017 Weak clipper and cold front system will bring scattered showers.
There is also a 500mb trough over the eastern United States through the weekend.
1142 PM MDT Thu Jun 15 2017 This morning's H500 hand analysis is showing a much more progressive/zonal pattern across the lower 48 as the jet stream has settled across the northern states. A shift in some of the high latitude energy will allow the jet stream to dip into the Great Plains and Great Lakes region this weekend. As the jet stream continues to carve out a trough in the eastern states. high pressure will be building over the Desert Southwest. Models still suggest some moisture being recirculated into the strong ridge and want to produce some isolated afternoon mountain storms. Weak high pressure positioned over the western states will maintain mostly clear skies over the terminals through at least the next 24 hours.
315 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2017 A cold front will move southeast toward the area Friday, but will stall out just northwest of the area.
Moisture embedded in ridge will continue to bring periods of shower activity across the northern third of the forecast area this morning. Slightly cooler temperatures anticipated today in response to the passing disturbances, with warming temperatures noted on Saturday.
Expect a fairly strong cold front to race south across the local area on Saturday. should see some thunderstorm activity develop across the high plains and advect across portions of the area during the late afternoon through evening hours.
359 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017 Upper ridging is over the southcentral and southwest parts of the country with northwest flow over the CWA.
430 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017 (Today and Tonight) The overall pattern will change little today from yesterday, with an upper level high centered in northwestern Mexico, putting our area in weak northwest flow. At the surface, low pressure along the TX/NM border will keep low level flow southerly and warm. The low level thermal ridge will also intensify with 850mb temperatures expected to warm 2-4 degrees Celsius. 700mb temperatures are expected to warm a few degrees, and there doesn't appear to be a well-defined upper level disturbance to aid in convection breaking through the warmer temperatures aloft.
Appears convection may initate across the higher terrain first, but expect scattered convection to spill over into the valley as well so will include chance PoPs all areas with exception of likely in the eastern mountains.
Early morning water vapor imagery continues to reveal strengthening high pressure across the southwestern CONUS and far northern Mexico this morning, with abundant dry air noted in all 3 GOES-16 water vapor channels.
Flow then gradually becomes more nwly overnight and through the day Friday as ridge builds over the desert SW, with max temps climbing 2-5 degf most locations as heights begin to increase. Could see some near 100f readings return to areas along the lower Ark Valley, with 90s elsewhere on the plains, 80s interior valleys and mainly 70s/80s in the mountains below 10k feet.
The subtropical upper high centered over Mexico is still progged to amplify over the western CONUS and become centered over AZ and NM by the end of the weekend. Have discounted and run to the higher end of model blend at this time. It will be warmer still on Saturday with MOS in line with other guidance.
403 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017 The region remains under the influence of the upper level ridge as yesterday's temperatures move into the lower 90s most location.
Summertime pattern will continue across the area through Saturday with weak upper trough in place. Near normal temperatures are expected with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the lower 70s.
The low level cold pool has allowed temperatures to fall into 60s across north central and northeastern Oklahoma.
A bigger concern for severe weather develops over southwest and south central Iowa later this evening as the low level jet intensifies and surges north. The surface warm front should surge back north towards the Minnesota by Friday afternoon. That said, storms tonight likely with have a large outflow area that will impact the warm front advance during the morning but it should recover by the afternoon as the pressure gradient increases with as low pressure moves into western Nebraska.
358 AM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017 Broad upper low continues to drift across southern Canada north of Minnesota with near zonal flow from the Pacific Northwest, across the northern Rockies, and into the northern Plains. Models are showing a very weak 700mb trof crossing the area by early afternoon. Cooler temperatures are expected behind the cold front, with highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s.
aforementioned low scoots off to the east though a weak wave moving through very modest cyclonic flow may lead to some showers and possibly a few thunderstorms, though instability looks to be on the low side. Ridge then builds over the western conus to start the week.
353 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017 The current upper level pattern consists of a dominant ridge over Mexico and the Desert Southwest, zonal flow across the northern third of the CONUS and a weak trough across the southeast. The remnants of two convective complexes can be seen on satellite and RADAR early this morning traveling southeast around the eastern periphery of the ridge. A decision was made to go ahead and issue a heat advisory for the Dallas-Fort Worth Metro area where mid and upper 90s high temps combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s will produce heat indices near 105.
High temperatures look to range from the low 90s in far eastern Colorado to the mid 90s to near 100 elsewhere.
A series of Short wave low pressure troughs with Pacific moisture will bring increased showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday most numerous over the northern and western mountains.
Prior to then, a few showers will be possible this morning as a subtle mid level trough axis remains draped across eastern Kentucky. The best chances for convective initiation will be along the higher terrain of the Appalachians this afternoon, therefore remaining mainly east of far eastern Kentucky.
Will also be watching late day thunderstorm development along an advancing cold front across KS.
Temperatures will spike upward tomorrow as an upper level ridge rapidly strengthens over the southwest.
This begins a prolonged period of warmer and drier weather.
355 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017 A low-amplitude, nearly stationary TROF exists over the north- central CONUS early this morning with a well-depicted MCV located over southwestern MO. TES The quasi-stationary upper TROF pattern over the north-central CONUS will continue into Saturday with what is currently anticipated to be a MCS exiting during the late morning and midday.
While radar is beginning to show weak echoes in the Pierre area, the lower levels of the atmosphere is far too dry for pcpn. Meanwhile, partly to mostly sunny skies have allow temperatures to rise into the lower 80s across the area. The surface and upper low to the north of us in Canada will shift to the east tonight and Friday, keeping the area under west-northwest flow aloft. The sfc features are At this point, the highest precipitation amounts will likely concentrate over eastern SD and west central MN. The digging trough will slide across MN Saturday night as a high builds across the southwestern states.
1217 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017 For the remainder of the afternoon, temperatures will once again rise into the lower 90s across the area as steady warm advection continues. Dew point values have risen into the lower to mid 70s, making for heat indices near the 100 degree mark for areas across eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Fortunately, this transpired only recently as subsidence in the wake of early morning convection helped to temporarily scour out at least some of the low-level moisture content this morning.
With temperatures cooling a bit aloft, freezing levels have lowered and will allow for a hail threat with any of the stronger storms, especially if any storms can develop any organized rotation. This will be largely due to a general troughing pattern set to remain nearly stationary or steadily reinforced across the area. Waves of energy are expected to rotate around the trough intermittently as the main upper low meanders slowly across Ontario/south-central Canada. There will be some added energy to the low over the weekend, which will help to enhance the precipitation potential.
928 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2017 Weak high pressure will gradually build into the region through Friday with generally fair weather expected for most of the area.
557 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2017 Ridging will remain in place through early Friday.
There will be quite a difference in temperatures today as an upper level trough currently in the upper Midwest and northern Plains sags south-southeast toward our area during the day today. A cold front is moving through the CWA as we speak. Therefore, most places will likely stay in the lower to mid 30s for highs north and upper 30s south.
Upper air analysis last evening showed a broad trough across most of the country. The trough axis extended from Minnesota to southern California. The 00Z DRT sounding showed the temperature dipping slightly below 0C at around 3800 ft and then warmer again up to near 8700 ft with winds in this layer from the southeast. Precipitation should become all rain during the afternoon with some daytime warming of the low levels. Tonight the upper level trough axis will swing through Central Texas pushing the precipitation southward. Friday morning will bring freezing temperatures across nearly all of the CWA. Only southern Frio and most of Dimmit will be above freezing.
But the pattern itself, with a persistent ridge over the western states and a trough over the eastern CONUS, is favorable for fast-moving clipper-type systems to affect the area. The area is in the wake of one such front currently and it still looks like a good chance many folks will see sub-freezing high temperatures today.
Warmer today with west winds aiding temperatures, rising into the 20s along and west of the valley with teens to the east. H850 temps should increase about 10 deg over eastern ND while remaining significantly cooler over the far east.
1014 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2017 Ridging will remain in place through early Friday.
An area of high pressure builds up the Ohio Valley for tonight into Friday diminishing the snow showers.
The upper level trough axis will pass tonight and with mostly clear skies and the dry air in place it will be chilly, though a return to weak downslope winds may mitigate the cooling somewhat. Even warmer weather is expected this weekend as the meridional flow across the center of the CONUS backs to northwesterly and heights/thicknesses build locally.
All short range and medium range models continue to suggest the highly amplified upper air pattern will persist, featuring a strong upper level ridge of high pressure around the western third of the United States with a correspondingly deep upper level trof of low pressure covering most of the eastern states.
518 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017 Elongated upper trough extends from Lake Superior southwest to Kansas early this morning, ushering in much colder conditions over a large part of the region. Radar mosaics showing a large area of very light echoes dropping southward, associated with the trough itself, with surface reports upstream showing some visibilities as low as 3 miles.