Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/ISSUED 918 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH NORTHERLY BREEZES AND COOL CONDITIONS DESPITE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. BUT THE END RESULT WILL BE A SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON TODAY VS YESTERDAY DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE. A BRIEF PD OF FREEZING TEMPS IS POSSIBLE FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS IN EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA EARLY SAT MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AS AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY JET IMPINGES ON THE REGION DOWNSTREAM OF BROAD TROFFING OVER THE WRN CONUS. 13 BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO TEXAS. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST. WITH A MODEST ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY AS THE HIGH LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC.
/ISSUED 313 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015/ Low clouds will continue pushing southeast of the area this morning as upper trough moves east of the region. Behind the cold front, clear skies, light winds and a dry air-mass has allowed temperatures to drop off into the lower/mid 20s north of Interstate 44.
MOISTURE WILL HEAD INTO EASTERN MT THIS AFTN AND WINDS ALOFT WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL MT DRIFTS EASTWARD AS WELL. THAT SHOULD BRING SOME WARMER AIR INTO OUR REGION BUT LINGERING CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP US FROM WARMING AS MUCH AS FORECAST.
/ISSUED 1011 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015/ ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO FORECAST TRENDS TODAY AS DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH USHERED BY SOME GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS. A DRIER COOLER AIRMASS IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ALREADY SEEING SOME FREEZING TEMPS IN NW GA THIS MORNING. EXPECTING TEMPS THIS MORNING TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S TO THE LOWER 50S AS THE COLDEST AIR HAS NOT MADE ITS WAY INTO THE STATE YET.
148 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015 GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
204 PM MST FRI DEC 18 2015 A RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO PUSH INTO THE CWA BRINGING WITH IT DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. THE SNOWFALL IN THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA HAS IMPACTED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY INTO SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PLAINS GETS DOMINATED BY THE RIDGE AND HAS WARMER SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
214 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015 A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS STRETCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN EXTREME OF OUR COASTAL WATERS AT THIS HOUR. WINDS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO TURN TO THE WEST DUE TO THE TROUGH.
401 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015 GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
A SLOW CLEARING TREND WILL BE NOTED OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NUDGES IN FROM THE WEST AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.
303 PM CST FRI DEC 18 2015 At 20Z an upper trough was over the Great Lakes and the OH river valley. A second upper trough was just off the Pacific Northwest Coast. In between the two troughs, ridging was found over the Rockies. At the surface, a general high pressure system was influencing the Great Plains with any hint of low level moisture well off the gulf coast. If the boundary layer mixes deeper, surface temps could be warmer.
1100 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015 GOING FORECAST IS LOOKING ON TRACK WITH A RANGE OF TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 40S AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR. BUT SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT THESE CIGS ARE ERODING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DEEPEN IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC RIDGING WILL BUILD SE INTO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS DRY AND COOLER AIR MASS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN FREEZING/SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS WITH A FEW OF OUR METRO LOCATIONS HOVERING JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.
234 PM MST FRI DEC 18 2015 WARM TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM THE WEST BRINGING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY.
COMBO OF SHARPENING LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND RIBBON OF LWR COND PRES DEFICITS/ADIABATIC OMEGA RESULTS IN THESE SHSN ESP ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94. LLVL RH PROGS SHOW DRYING LATER IN THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO A LIGHTER WIND REGIME ON SATURDAY. HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY.
326 PM CST FRI DEC 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A TROUGH/WARM FRONT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. UPPER LEVEL BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER ONE ALONG THE PACIFIC WEST COAST. WITH THE LOWER TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE. THE NORTHERN PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE. OVERNIGHT THE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT AND WILL HALT THE FALL OF TEMPS. FOR TOMORROW THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD.
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES LATER TODAY WHICH WILL HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 50S AND MID 40S. BY SATURDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR SOME NORTHERN LOCATIONS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. SUNNY AND WARMER ON SATURDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST. EXCEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER. A FEW RURAL AREAS MAY AGAIN TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK.
316 PM CST FRI DEC 18 2015 A 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS AT TEMPLE TEXAS. WHICH MAY REACH THE FREEZING MARK AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH CALM WIND AND STILL PERHAPS A RISING BAROMETER. THE MODELS ARE A TAD QUICKER LOWERING PRESSURES BY DAYBREAK FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH A WARMER TREND UNFOLDING ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. EVEN WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW BY EARLY CHRISTMAS WEEK WILL OPEN UP THE GULF AS A TROUGH APPROACHES.
252 PM CST FRI DEC 18 2015 A strong upper level trof was over the western Great Lakes into IL this afternoon. High pressure will pass across Illinois on Saturday, setting up a day of lighter winds and mostly sunny skies. Winds will start out NW, but become southerly once the ridge axis passes east of Illinois.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED CLEAR SKIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE PIEDMONT LATE MORNING. IN THE 50S WEST AND NORTH AND 60S SOUTH AND EAST WILL BE THE HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON AS CAA SETS IN. ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WINDS WILL RELAX A LITTLE FROM FRIDAY WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS IN THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KTS GUSTING TO 15-20 KTS.
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN LINGERING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL CLEAR OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA AND LIFT OUT TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S NORTH WITH A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTING EAST TO JUST NORTH OF THE STATE WHICH WILL TURN WINDS TO THE NE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND THEN IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
/ISSUED 330 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015/ SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS/DEEPENS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. UPPER RIDGING AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP CLEAR SKIES IN THE OFFING THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION KEEPS LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. SATURDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS NEXT TROUGH AXIS COMES ASHORE THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Expect a dry today as subsidence sets in behind the upper trough moving off the the east. Clouds currently over the area will move out of the area this morning as dry air advects in at the low levels.
Tonight, high pressure will move into the region. Upper level ridging residing over the Central Rockies today will slide east and move into the region on Saturday. A tightening pressure gradient across the area will strengthen southerly winds across the area and allow temperatures to rise into the lower 40s to lower 50s.
THIS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS FROM REACHING THE LOWER 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS NEAR THE TN RIVER AND POINTS NORTH. KTW A SOUTHWARD MOVING TROUGH. WINDS NORTH OF THE TROUGH WILL BECOME NNW. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP TROUGH/LOW ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS BUILDING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. STRONG WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY SAT.
/ISSUED 1036 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015/ SKY CLEAR WITH A VERY SLUGGISH WARM UP ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING AS THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS IN RELATION TO YESTERDAY.
1144 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015 GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE COOL AND DRY PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A DRY WEST FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMER GUIDANCE HAS TENDED TO BE BETTER RECENTLY AND WILL LEAN THAT WAY. THIS WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE OVER THE WARMER LAKES WATERS. THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHING SATURDAY SHOULD EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG NET RADIATION COOLING WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TEXAS SHIFTING OVERHEAD TONIGHT. VERY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH THE SHIFT OF HIGH PRESSURE.
1130 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2015 Updated aviation section for 18z taf issuance Upper level trough currently poised over our area, will continue to move east today. We will see a several degree rise in temperatures on Saturday as upper level heights rise as an upper level ridge begins building into the region. We should see highs well into the 40s to maybe close to 50 degrees out in SEMO, under a good amount of sunshine and light winds, as high pressure at the sfc stretches from the Gulf coast states up into the upper Midwest.
159 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROF AXIS WILL WILL SLIP EAST OF CNY/NEPA THIS EVENING. AREA WILL STILL BE IN A THERMAL TROF. AND WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN A TYPICAL MID-AUGUST DAY.
AND WEAKNESS ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. AS WE REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND AN UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN U. AS THE SRN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROF BECOMES CUT OFF AND RETROGRADES SWWD AROUND THE RIDGE. WITH THE WWD PUSH OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE EXPECTED INCREASED CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION.
313 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WAS BRINGING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO OUR SOUTHEAST WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. IF WINDS REMAIN CALM FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS THEN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. A WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE MID MS/OHIO VALLEYS ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHWEST WIND AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EASTWARD TOWARD THE DELMARVA REGION WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION.
241 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015 The upper ridge that has been dominating sensible weather patterns lately will continue to exert its influence over the region, though the primary ridge axis has begun to shift westward, and will become anchored near the Four Corners Region by this weekend. As high pressure continues to exert its influence, expect high clouds tonight, and seasonable lows in the 60s and 70s across the area.
550 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROF AXIS WILL WILL SLIP EAST OF CNY/NEPA THIS EVENING.
300 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER THURSDAY. MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. HWVR FLW NWD OF RIDGELINE BACKS WRLY AND WILL LEAD TO THERMAL RIDGING THU-FRI W/WARMING TEMPS.
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOISTURE POOLING HAS RESULTED IN A BAND OF LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. WITH A LARGE AREA OF UPPER 90S ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. APPARENT TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 100S ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER WE REMAIN CAPPED UNDER THE WARM THERMAL RIDGE. THE LARGE AND PERSISTENT H500 RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN BY THE WEEKEND BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER IOWA THIS MORNING AND WILL ONLY SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY. DESPITE THE HIGH OVERHEAD. SOME MOISTURE HAS SLIPPED UNDER THE HIGH AROUND 5 KFT AND HAS RESULTED IN LOCALIZED AREAS OF FOG. LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST. WEAK BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH RIDGE INTO NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL COME ASHORE IN PAC NW BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN RIDGE.
An 18z analysis showed that the cold front has pushed through our Alabama and all but our extreme south-central Georgia counties this afternoon. Lows will dip into the low 70s across SE Alabama and parts of SW Georgia where drier air will have slipped in, and remain in the mid 70s elsewhere.
151 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY.
535 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A FRONT LINGERS TO THE SOUTH. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS MID 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S COAST. AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL START THE PERIOD WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE COASTS AND A RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE ALOFT AND HELP RETROGRADE THE EAST COAST TROUGH TO THE WEST.
300 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB TROUGH AND LOW OFF THE WEST COAST. A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN U. A COUPLE OF TROUGHS/COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA IN NW FLOW ALOFT. CONVECTION WITH THE FIRST TROUGH/FRONT WILL BE DIMINISHING EARLY THU NIGHT. FRI WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SAT. DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH H5 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR NM AND H5 TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE EAST COAST.
With a lack of widespread precipitation and/or cloudiness, the opportunity for much warmer raw model forecast temperatures reaching into the 90s is likely, which will be the case over the next several days.
127 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER THURSDAY. MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. STORY FOR TODAY IS MUCH THE SAME AS YESTERDAY WITH GREAT LAKES ON THE UPWIND SIDE OF SLOWLY PROGRESSING NORTHEAST CONUS TROUGH. BLOCKED/SLOWLY RETROGRADING MID/ULVL PATTERN TO START AS RIDGE CENTROID MOVES INTO DESERT SW BY THIS WEEKEND.
1259 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015 DRY UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES. AT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THE SURFACE THROUGH 850 MB WAS SITUATED FROM KS N-NE ACROSS WESTERN IA INTO MN. UNDER THIS RIDGE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
WITH THE STRONG 500MB RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. INTO THE LOW 60S. WARMER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN ON THE INCREASING SW WINDS TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS SHIFT TO E UPPER MI. AHEAD OF THE NEARING COLD FRONT OVER FAR W PORTIONS OF ONTARIO AND NW MN. A COUPLE OF TROUGHS/COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA IN NW FLOW ALOFT. CONVECTION WITH THE FIRST TROUGH/FRONT WILL BE DIMINISHING EARLY THU NIGHT. FRI WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SAT. DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
240 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015 The quiet and dry weather pattern will persist through the end of the week as upper level ridging remains in place over the Plains and Rockies. At the surface and in the low level, high pressure will help to keep conditions relatively dry with weak winds. While the area will be under the influence of the upper ridge, the hottest temperatures associated with it will remain to our west. Humidity also doesn't look outrageous so heat indices in the lower to middle 90s are expected through the end of the week.
135 PM PDT WED AUG 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL CREATE VERY WARM WEATHER INLAND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
321 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015 WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL U.
1235 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER. SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER NOW UNTIL THIS EVENING AS THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE TROUGH IS TRACKING THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ON THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET MIXES OUT DURING THE MORNING ENDED THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE MEAN H5 RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
122 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE OVER ARIZONA LEADING A DECREASE IN MONSOON ACTIVITY. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, SLOWLY BUILDING TOWARD ARIZONA. FURTHER EAST, A DRIER AIR MASS HAS MOVED IN WITH THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.
304 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015 MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING PERSISTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST AND AS A RESULT. AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
430 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
216 PM MDT WED AUG 12 2015 ELONGATED VORT MAX/H5 TROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL UTAH TODAY CONTINUES TO SPIN CLOCKWISE AROUND VERTICALLY STACKED HIGH PRESSURE OVER COLORADO. MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ROTATES AROUND THE PERIPHERY.
1217 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015 Dry conditions are expected to continue for the next several days as upper-level high pressure expands and builds across the southern High Plains and into the desert southwest. Monsoonal moisture lifting northward across the eastern Rockies will generally continue to fall well west of the forecast area as it rounds the ridge; far enough that even cold pool driven expansion of storms should not threaten the CWA through at least Thursday evening.
336 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
327 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROF AXIS WILL WILL SLIP EAST OF CNY/NEPA THIS EVENING.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS AGAIN ON THURSDAY, AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES FURTHER INTO N FL, WITH A SUBTLE MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE JUST AHEAD OF IT INTO THE LAKES REGION.
A DISTURBANCE WAS ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING. THURSDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK UP.
312 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THERE IS HIGH PRESSURE, WELL TO THE NORTH, WHICH WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER, WHICH WILL HELP TO TURN THE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO A GENERALLY EAST FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE WEEKEND. WITH THE LOW IN THE AREA, EVEN THOUGH IT IS WEAK, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM DEPICTS THE CENTER OF AN EXPANSIVE DEEP AND WARM MIDDLE AND UPPER RIDGE REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. AN ATTENDANT UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. NORTH OF THAT A MID AND UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS ARE UNDERNEATH THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. LATEST IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND LAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM DETAIL THAT A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS TRUDGED RATHER FAR SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND IS SITUATED ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. BUT ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN AND NEAR THE SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST. LOCAL AREA WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY ON THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL STILL REMAIN IN CHECK RELATIVELY SPEAKING INTO THE LOWER-MID 60S.
252 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A FRONT LINGERS TO THE SOUTH. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS MID 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S COAST. AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL START THE PERIOD WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE COASTS AND A RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE ALOFT AND HELP RETROGRADE THE EAST COAST TROUGH TO THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND IS NOW LOCATED NEAR THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE GFS FORECASTS A WEAK INVERTED WHILE THE NAM IS MUCH SHARPER WITH THE TROUGH AS ITS FORECAST OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWER TO BUILD SOUTH. GIVEN THE HIGHER 850MB THETA-E VALUES EXPECT MORE CU OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERALL. FAIR SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATE-WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH EXTENDING ACROSS OUR AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE WWD TOWARD THE GOMEX. AS THE RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE GOMEX. NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
1126 AM MDT WED AUG 12 2015 THE UPR RIDGE WL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA TODAY.
07 AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS, EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
246 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 A LINGERING UPPER TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
607 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 A LINGERING UPPER TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
200 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SOME CLOUDS AND MINIMAL SHOWER CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.
/ISSUED 1052 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015/ DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH SUNNY SKIES AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.