Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THU. USHERING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE EASTERN U. CURRENT SFC- 3KM SRH VERY FAVORABLE BETWEEN 200-350 M2/S2 THOUGH THIS MAY WANE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO PULL FARTHER AWAY FROM CENTRAL NC. LEADING TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. BAND OF CONVECTION PRECEDING THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH PROJECTED TO TRAVERSE WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. AN EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE WEST AND PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AS THE FINAL WAVE WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS AREA THE AREA.
/ISSUED 416 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015/ A COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. AS THE NEXT TROUGH/UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BUT BECOME LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST. WHICH WILL PROMOTE COOLER THAN AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES.
316 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015 Cold front has shifted southeast of the area this afternoon with breezy northwest winds behind front. Secondary surge of cooler air will move into Northeast Oklahoma late tonight with front pushing south to near the red river Thursday afternoon.
1225 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1042 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015/ THE WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS THAT PRODUCED LIGHT RAINFALL SO FAR THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA AT THIS TIME. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST. THE MAIN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS MUCH FURTHER WEST AND EXTENDS FROM WISCONSIN SOUTH INTO ILLINOIS AND NE TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE MAY BE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INLAND MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WYOMING THURSDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY GIVING A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT OVER THE NORTH AND DURING THE DAY FOR THE REST OF THE AREA(20-40 PERCENT).
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY LEADING TO A WARMING AND DRYING TREND ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR HILLS.
148 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015 STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL CONTINUE TO TRUCK EASTWARD THIS EVENING. A DEEP UPPER LOW LOOKS TO SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA BY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
400 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015 WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IF ANY FANFARE.
THIS MOISTURE IS AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH. THE RIDGE AXIS HAS MOVED OVER WESTERN CO THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A FEW SHOWERS BEGINNING OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER LATE TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. THE TROUGH WILL SPLIT WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH BY THURSDAY MORNING.
BUT FEEL IT WILL BE LIKELY LOCALIZED TO SISSETON AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR SISSETON.
310 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015 A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UP OF MICHIGAN WHILE KIWX RADAR SHOWING ANOTHER BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ROTATING THRU THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING INTENSE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. CREATING 200+M HEIGHT FALLS ALONG WITH IMPRESSIVE 75-80KT SPEED MAX MOVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE INTO THE BASE OF THE TROF. CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY MORNING AS THE AREA REMAINS IN EXPANSIVE CYCLONIC FLOW AS SURFACE RIDGING IS SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
Clouds will certainly be on the increase, and lows 8-10 degrees warmer. The operational models actually appear fairly similar with the handling of the a split stream type mid lvl trof that will move slowly east toward the region over the weekend.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA TODAY THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO ADDED A NON DIURNAL TEMP CURVE AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS SURGING IN FROM THE NW. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES. A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD SPREAD INTO THE FAR NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA TODAY AND NOW SEEING NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH STILL THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED ON THE PLATEAU. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
On the edge of the low clouds across SE KS, NE OK, and SW MO, dense fog has developed. As drier and cooler air moves into the region, clouds will clear from west to east during the afternoon hours. The pressure gradient will strengthen today as low pressure deepens as it moves into the western Great Lakes region, resulting in breezy northwest winds during the daylight hours before the boundary layer decouples this evening. Low temperatures are expected to fall into the lower to middle 30s in most areas outside of the KC Metro area. High pressure will move into the CWA Thursday night, with another night of similar temperatures in the lower to middle 30s and a subsequent shot of frost.
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES. AS STRONG UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE REGION. WARMER FARTHER WEST.
124 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015 LATEST SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A GUSTY COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR MANITOBA THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO ANOTHER LOW OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. MEANWHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. CLOUD COVER COULD SKIM OUR NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES AS THE LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD. OPTED TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE GROWERS REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO FREEZING TEMPS. DRY CONDITIONS AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK RIDGE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL US. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO BREAK INTO THE LOW 50S.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT LOOK TO BRING WETTING PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
HAD BEEN REPLACED WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S AT KEST TO LOWER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND A FEW MID 40S SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER MANITOBA QUICKLY DROPPED TOWARD SOUTH DAKOTA BY MIDDAY AND BY 00Z SHOULD BE OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS WOUND UP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL HEAD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z. THIS AIR IS MODIFIED WARMER AFTER 06Z AND THE SATURATION SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
314 PM PDT WED OCT 28 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT.
DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BECOME STEADY OR EVEN RISE AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TRAVEL ISSUES WITH THE PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
249 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE TRACKING TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WITH THE BEST CHANCES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN WEST TENNESSEE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
Unsettled conditions will persist over the next 12 to 24 hours as an upper level low pivots over the Upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes region. Have generally held close to a consensus of available guidance with awareness that cooler conditions are possible where clouds linger longest and slightly warmer conditions are possible where clearing occurs.
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF COOLER WEATHER DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW. CENTRAL ALABAMA IS NOW IN A WARMER AND MORE TROPICAL SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ALSO HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES WARMER AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON.
336 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION PROVIDING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT. A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. USHERING IN DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS THOUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
1231 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015 HAND ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED VERY COLD TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALBERTA POISED TO PLUNGE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. STRENGTHENING OF THE CYCLONE AS IT MAKES ITS WAY NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER HEAD EARLY THURSDAY. EXPECTING RECYCLED COLD AIR AROUND THE HIGH TO KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE.
SHOULD SEE VEERING WINDS AT THE SFC AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A FROPA EXPECTED ACROSS OUR NE TX TERMINALS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND ACROSS OUR REMAINING TERMINALS LATER THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE CONTINUE TO DRIVE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER NRN MCCURTAIN CO IN SE OK AND LIKELY TO SPREAD FARTHER EAST OVER OUR FAR NRN COUNTIES IN SW AR.
PRECIP COVERAGE HAS DECREASED TO SCATTERED AS A 850-700 MB TROUGH HAS PASSED TO THE EAST AND A DEEP W-SW FLOW IS BRINGING IN DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR. THE COLD FRONT NOW OVER IL AND SE MO WILL APPROACH.
LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS BLEEDING THROUGH THE RIDGE OVER COLORADO. THE AIRMASS IS COOL AND DRY ENOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO GET DOWN NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT BUT THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY PRESENT A BIT OF A CHALLENGE IN ACTUALLY DOING THAT. WENT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING IN MY FORECAST. UPPER LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH FROM CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA WHILE ANOTHER. SEPARATE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. MAINLY JUST SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. WHILE LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BIT ON THE COOLER SIDE.
341 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015 COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AS THE CURRENT UPPER RIDGE PUSHES EAST OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A WIND DIRECTION CHANGE. COLDER TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL ALLOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING. EXPECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY TOMORROW UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DROP EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND COOLER MX TEMPS ON THU. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SW U.
324 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2015 THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST ALABAMA/SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OCCURRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED TO BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT INVOLVING SHIFTING THE COLD FRONT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.
HOWEVER THE EASTERN FRINGE CONTINUES TO SUCCUMB TO DRY/STABLE AIR FROM THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST. 500MB FLOW SHOWS INCREASING RIDGING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY AS THE WAVE LIFTS NORTH. THOUGH A RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING COOL WEATHER AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER THROUGH FRIDAY.
1032 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 A PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND JUST OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT SHALLOW IN THE WAKE OF WIDESPREAD PREVIOUS RAIN AND MUCH OF THE CONVERGENCE HAS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS SCATTERED COVERAGE AS SHOWN BY THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS. SLOW STORM MOVEMENT NEAR THE UPPER LOW STILL SUPPORTS A POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES A LITTLE FARTHER AWAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEAKENING WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE COAST FRIDAY.
WEAK TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF -RA CURRENTLY EXTENDING BETWEEN KLWT AND KHVR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVERAGE AT THOSE AIRFIELDS. NEXT SWATH OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST ARRIVES THIS AFTN, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LASTING UNTIL AROUND 02-03Z. THEN THE NEXT PLUME OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ANCHORED ALONG THE WEST COAST ARRIVES, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE CYCLE REPEATS ONE MORE TIME ON FRIDAY AS THE TROF'S CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
STRATUS LAYER HAS HELD TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SE GA. TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS NE FL WHERE SKIES ARE SUNNY. MUCH DRIER UPPER LEVEL AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA AROUND UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL KEEP ACTIVITY QUITE A BIT TAMER TODAY.
THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST DEEPENING INTO A CLOSED LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE SHORT TERM. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO UPPER 80S OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND VICTORIA REGION.
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE DIGGING TO OUR SOUTH. SO THE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE NV BORDER AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL IDAHO LOOK ON TRACK.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HOWEVER REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
1033 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME. WHICH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. STILL TIMING THE COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY EVENING. SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
The forecast is on track as we're heading toward the low/mid 80s for highs. Still a slight chance of a mid-afternoon to early evening pop up shower or storm across southeast areas, otherwise a pleasant and warmer day on tap.
STREAMER SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NW INCREASING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. A MID LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE EXISTS IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO SUPPORT ISOLATED COASTAL AND/OR SEA BREEZE SHOWERS THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
THE HRRR SHOWS THE LOW CLOUDS AREA ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU EXPANDING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND THEN SHIFTING TO THE EAST BEFORE SUNRISE.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL HELP DRAW MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE REGION TODAY.
THERE WAS SOME CONCERN IN PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST POPS AS THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW STORMS WILL EVOLVE.
EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS IOWA AND NEBRASKA. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE WARMER ON FRIDAY AS SFC WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT MAYBE NOT AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF BLOWOFF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH.
A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM WILL COME FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
1038 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WAS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AXIS OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WAS OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE IMPULSE WILL LIKELY LOSE ITS EFFECT AS A PRECIPITATION-MAKER AS IT RUNS INTO THE VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND EXTENDING INTO MANITOBA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S OVER THE EAST HALF OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA - THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
837 AM PDT THU JUN 4 2015 LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 95 CORRIDOR WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WEST OF THIS BAND. WALLMANN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA. THE LOW WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. /ISSUED 246 AM PDT THU JUN 4 2015/ SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED OVERNIGHT AS THE LEADING JET STREAK FOR AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH WESTERN NEVADA. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MAINLY LOCATED IN THE BASIN AND RANGE ALONG AND EAST OF A GERLACH TO BRIDGEPORT LINE. STILL EXPECTED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
QUIET MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA AND INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY. AS WEAK IMPULSES WITHIN NORTHERLY FLOW ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER E CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND CONTINUING TO SLOWLY SHIFT E. COOL AND DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SE. AND WILL SEE RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEKEND.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE AND CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE. BUT MORE ENERGY FROM UPPER LOW OVER CA WILL EJECT INTO THE REGION. FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE BRIEFLY DRIER AS RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MODELS IN AGREEMENT LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL BECOME LESS PROGRESSIVE HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH A LONGWAVE TROF CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE WRN CONUS CLOSING OFF AS IN DIGS INTO THE SWRN STATES. THIS IN TURN WILL AMPLIFY AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL CONUS.
PRE- FRONTAL TROF ANALYZED AT 06Z FROM NEAR DALHART TO NEAR GUYMON EXPECTED TO REMAIN VIABLE TODAY.
AND A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION DUE TO A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HOWEVER REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SEND MOISTURE MOISTURE NORTH INTO UTAH ON BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. ANIMATION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING. THIS UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TODAY. THE INITIAL CONVECTION THIS EVENING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE OF THE HIGH-BASED VARIETY OWING TO THE RATHER DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE COASTAL CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW WILL TAKE A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG OFF THE COAST.
AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES. A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE OUTLINES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST HELPING TO KEEP THE PRECIP CHANCES LOW FOR TODAY. LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN NE AL DUE TO CAPE VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
1146 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TO MAINTAIN BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
A LATE SEASON PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD TODAY.
THEN THE NEXT PLUME OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ANCHORED ALONG THE WEST COAST ARRIVES, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE CYCLE REPEATS ONE MORE TIME ON FRIDAY AS THE TROF'S CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
807 AM PDT THU JUN 4 2015 Low pressure begins to lose its influence of the Inland Northwest today into Friday. The best shower threat retreats to the northern mountains today and only near the lower Idaho Panhandle Friday afternoon. Much warmer weather is expected Friday into the weekend as a high pressure ridge returns to the region.
SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT WHILE A 30 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE SOME MODERATE WIND SHEAR IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL NUDGE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EAST TODAY WITH MODEST HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING INTO WEST TEXAS. THE SURFACE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO WHILE A PRONOUNCED THETA-E RIDGE DEVELOPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATE LINE. SUPPORTED BY THE LOW-LEVEL JET. AFTER TODAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF AND BECOME FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK LIMITING ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO NEW MEXICO.
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER E CENTRAL MINNNESOTA AND CONTINUING TO SLOWLY SHIFT E. COOL AND DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SE. AND WILL SEE RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. BUT NERVOUS THAT FULL MIXOUT MAY NOT OCCUR WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER THAN FORECASTED HIGHS. THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER START TO THE MORNING WITH HIGH REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S AND HOPEFULLY NEAR 80. A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WILL BE SEEN WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
/ISSUED 303 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2015/ (Today and tonight) A benign weather pattern will continue across West Central Texas as an upper level ridge dominates. Highs are forecast to be slightly warmer than what we saw yesterday, generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with southeast winds of 10 to 15 mph.
1037 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COASTAL FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST AND THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ERODE ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A STATIONARY COASTAL FRONT AND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT. AND THEREFORE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR.
/ISSUED 422 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015/ THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. A CONSENSUS OF THE THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS FORECASTS ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT THROUGH MID MORNING. THE MODELS THEN BUILD THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SE TEXAS BEGINNING ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY END EVEN THE VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES AND LEAD TO DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE INLAND AREAS.
ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL WEST COAST TROUGH IS PRODUCING SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BENEATH A SWATH OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION.
SO WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WARMER, WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 80S IN MOST AREAS.