Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
These storms will continue to push east, with additional chances coming this afternoon as the cold front pushes in. A cold front will continue to push south and east across the area today while a rigorous H5 wave passes overhead resulting in height falls. The mean H5 ridge over the area flattens to a fast quasi-zonal flow for this week. Aided by a long wave trough over Alberta, into southern Saskatchewan, a series of waves keep chances for thunderstorms in the forecast most days through the long range period. Cold front moving through central North Dakota at 6 AM CDT will move to eastern North Dakota during the afternoon hours.
1017 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible today as a weak cold front pushes through the region.
1032 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Skies will begin to clear later this morning as high pressure builds into the region accompanied by seasonably cool weather to start the week.
*Slightly less hot* weather is expected today as high pressure over the Desert Southwest shifts eastward.
BRO radar currently indicates isolated to scattered convection across the lower Texas Gulf waters. /issued 417 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Latest water vapor imagery shows the mid-level low/inverted trough overhead. High temperatures on Tuesday will range from the low to mid 90s near the coast to the upper 90s to triple digits across the west.
808 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Warmer weather with increased humidity can be expected through the week. Front will finally pick up speed this morning and head southward as the main trough axis swings through Ohio. With a split flow within the trough, the northern wave moving quickly toward Southern Canada and the southern diving through Kentucky, there will be only meager large scale ascent available over the region as the upper level system passes through. It looks like the best location to see more organized convection would be late in the day over the ridges. The surface boundary begins to diminish as it encounters the higher elevations and this will allow for modest low-level convergence to develop, which may be enough to pop a few storms.
Meanwhile, upper level ridging will begin to slowly build in across the Central Rockies to finish out the period Monday night. A warming trend will continue today as prevailing southerlies draw warmer air northward into western Kansas. Hot and dry conditions are likely through the end of the week as upper level ridging sets up and dominates across the Central Plains for much of the period.
Ridging will become more dominate by midweek and the thunderstorm chance will diminish. Hot conditions will be associated with the ridging and heat advisories may be required by the end of the week. Water vapor imagery this morning showing a digging trough across the Ohio/Mississippi Valleys with deep southwesterly flow across the forecast area. Temperatures will be cooler today due to clouds and think there will be a gradient of warmer temperatures in the northwest Midlands to cooler in the southeast.
513 AM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Current surface map shows cold front creeping through western South Dakota. For today, cold front makes it into central South Dakota this afternoon. Front will be stalled out in northern Nebraska Tuesday afternoon as weak high pressure slides through the Dakotas. Area will be under flat upper ridge through the remainder of the week. GFS/ECMWF then amplify ridge over the Rockies over the weekend with digging trof over the Great Lakes. Forecast area will be on western edge of northwest flow, allowing for slight cooler temperatures with back door fronts.
Each day we continue to fight through convective inhibition left over from overnight activity, and each day the flow is enough, in combination with the influence of our persistent inverted trough, to reset the atmosphere relatively quickly. That inverted trough extends from northern Chihuahua and Sonora into southern Arizona this morning.
Highs in the lower 90s, maybe 94 in the Muscle Shoals area, are expected in these locations. Little change in the overall wx pattern is xpcted tonight/into Tue, as a large dome of high pressure at the sfc builds ewd into the Midwest/OH Valley region, while a strong upper ridge pattern strengthens over the Plains states. The ridge pattern aloft should then begin to translate ewd heading into mid week, which should easily result in a continuation of hot/humid wx conditions for the mid TN Valley. Upper level ridging will be the main controlling factor regarding conditions across the much of the southeast CONUS.
1159 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Update Fair weather is expected today through Tuesday evening with high pressure sliding through the Great Lakes region. Highs will be near normal both days, from around 80 today to the low to mid 80s on Tuesday.
Considerable convection was occurring offshore, apparently in association with weak upper trough shown in the RAP analysis. Broad Atlantic ridge is producing a southerly wind flow. The latest indications are that areas from the Cape northward will have the highest chance for strong storms from late afternoon into evening.
1029 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Dissipating front today as high pressure aloft builds in.
Surface wise, a broad and split western atlantic ridge extends across the Florida Straits and the Florida peninsula. Under partly cloudy skies and the south winds, temperatures will rise into the lower 90s except in the upper 80s to near 90 at the Key West ASOS.
1034 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 No major updates needed as high pressure remains over the area. quiet and a bit warmer today. Large area of strong high pressure producing clear skies. High pressure will remain centered over the Great Lakes region today and most of tonight. Temps will moderate today as the core of the cooler air slides east of our region.
Upper level ridge was east of the area and an upper level trough was over SASK. Trough will move across southern MAN tonight with a jet max on the southern periphery. Cold front over northwest ND will move through this afternoon and evening.
It will be a quiet night with high pressure slowly pulling away from the region.
A cold front is expected to move through the region after midnight local with gusty winds in its wake. /issued 310 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2017/ Quiet weather to continue through the first half of the forecast as zonal flow aloft and a few weak cold fronts at the surface will keep temperatures in check until this weekend. Although wind speeds will not be as strong as with the last front, the airmass behind the front is a bit cooler so highs will be held about 4-6 degrees below today's readings.
A weak upper trough pushed through CA overnight which brought enough high clouds and mixing to our area to minimize fog coverage this morning as fog was limited to a few patches in the central San Joaquin Valley from Fresno northward near the state route 99 corridor. Skies have cleared out across our area this afternoon as the trough has pushed southeast of our area.
327 PM MST Wed Nov 29 2017 Relatively dry upper level trough now making its way across ern Montana, Wyoming and Colorado, with the bulk of the lift well north of here. Strong mid-level westerly flow on the bottom side of this trough now over nern Colorado. Behind the exiting trough, air is several degrees cooler. Lower dewpoints, lighter winds and nearly cloudless skies will allow strong radiation cooling to drop overnight lows in the low/mid 20s on the plains and teens across the high country. Temperatures cool tomorrow by as much as 8-12 degs with a cooler northwest flow aloft. Meanwhile, westerly winds still pretty strong on the mtn ridges and passes with 80-120kt west-northwest mid-level flow.
810 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2017 High pressure will build in from the west tonight. The high will crest over the area early Thursday then shift east into the maritimes during the afternoon.
725 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2017 High pressure will cross the region overnight through Thursday.
Winds will be light and variable as high pressure dominates the area tomorrow. Upper air analysis this morning showed nearly zonal flow over Texas with a strongly tilted trough along the west coast. A surface cold front has moved to the Gulf Coast and winds behind the front are from the north to northwest across our CWA. Cooler, drier air is settling over the region with temperatures five to ten degrees cooler and dew points 15 to 30 degrees lower than 24 hours ago. A low amplitude upper level ridge will build over Texas during this period. A second weak cold front will move through the region Thursday.
Scattered echoes showing up to our south are likely not reaching the ground, or at least very little, although dew points in these areas have risen considerably, so at least evaporation below the cloud bases is helping to moisten up the low levels there. A cold front will approach Middle TN Thursday morning bringing a shot at some light rain and MVFR cigs.
935 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2017 Weak high pressure ridge is north of the area with broad low level trough off the Atlantic coast. Weak mid to upper level ridge is noted across nrn FL and portions of GA. The main issue tonight is the fog potential and given temps expected to be cooler than last night.
507 PM MST Wed Nov 29 2017 A strong upper wave is pushing through the northern plains, and its associated cold front is crossing the CWA this afternoon. With pressure rises of 3-5 mb/3hr behind the cold front, northwest winds are strong across northwestern SD and northeastern WY. As cooler air pushes into the area, lows will dip into the teens and 20s. For the rest of the week and into the weekend, weak upper ridging to zonal flow will keep weather dry and mild.
Temperatures will start out a bit cooler but will warm into 70s through the rest of the week and into the weekend.
The trough may pass through far northwest AL before much in the way of precipitation can occur there, so our highest PoP (chance to likely) will be across the southeast 2/3 of our forecast area on Thursday. The Pacific cold front will follow quickly behind the during the afternoon into the evening, ending the precipitation from northwest-southeast.
730 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2017 Breezy northwest winds will continue this evening following a departing cold front. So I delayed how quickly the clouds clear which in turn keeps the temps slightly warmer through the next hour or so. Northwest winds 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph will weaken after sunset and become light and more terrain driven as surface and upper level ridges build overhead. Surface and upper level trough will be on our doorstep by about 00z Fri. 4" in the higher elevations of the Greens.
A zonal longwave ridge axis translates eastward across the western CONUS tonight and tomorrow as a compact H500 vort max races eastward up the Ohio River Valley with an attendant 90 kt jet streak. The low to mid clouds associated with this cyclone will likewise decay as the afternoon and evening progress onwards as depicted by RAP/NAM forecast soundings. Highs on Thursday will be similar to today, albeit possibly a degree or two lower given the weak CAA ahead of the ridge axis.
A weak and somewhat ill defined cold front extends roughly along the Louisiana/Texas border at this hour. Temperatures will start out a bit cooler but will warm into 70s through the rest of the week and into the weekend.
Expecting the front to dissipate over the next 12 hours as the upper trough fills in as it tracks eastward. Drier air with slightly lower dew points seep into the area through Thursday night which will provide clearing skies and cooler overnight temperatures, but remain just above seasonal averages.
909 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2017 High pressure centered over the mid Atlantic with its trailing surface axis extending down the east coast will maintain a fresh northeast breeze overnight. Limited moisture in the low levels, confined mainly beneath 850mb, will support some low-topped showers over the Atlantic in the onshore flow.
The 00Z sounding indicated that moisture had continued to increase in the lower levels beneath a strong inversion located just above 700 mb. Cold front currently stretching from western Oklahoma southward along the Louisiana/Texas border and into the western Gulf of Mexico should push into the local area late tonight and progress through the area tomorrow morning, resulting in scattered showers. The mid/upper trough associated with this front will be flattening out and moving away from the area quickly tomorrow, so there won't be much of a push behind it. High pressure will then control the area's weather through at least the first part of the weekend.
The high center is off to our south so there is just enough gradient to keep a west to northwest breeze going through the day, but certainly much lighter than what we saw on Wednesday.
640 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2017 Breezy northwest winds will continue this evening following a departing cold front. Northwest winds 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph will weaken after sunset and become light and more terrain driven as surface and upper level ridges build overhead. Surface and upper level trough will be on our doorstep by about 00z Fri. 4" in the higher elevations of the Greens.
This is in response to a trough of low pressure pushing into the area later tonight.
1015 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2017 High pressure will linger over the Carolinas, ahead of a weak cold front that will settle into and dissipate over north-central NC early Thursday.
557 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2017 A low pressure area in northwest AR is still forecast to weaken as it moves northeast into southern MO this evening. As a Pacific high pressure area builds in behind the front, winds will become northwesterly and clouds will clear out. Given the origin of the high pressure area and lots of sunshine, mild temps in the 50s are expected tomorrow. This high pressure will dominate the weather, along with a very zonal flow pattern, for the rest of the week and into the weekend.
/DL/ Thursday Night through Wednesday: By Thursday evening, rainfall is expected to start to taper off with the passing of the cold front.
1025 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2017 High pressure will cross the region overnight through Thursday.
650 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2017 An area of low pressure will move east across southern Canada this evening and Thursday. Its cold front will move across the Northland overnight, bringing a strong winds during the wee hours of the morning through the morning. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies and highs in the lower to middle 30s.
637 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2017 High pressure will weaken across the area today.
An upper level low continues to weaken and open up as it pushes eastward across northern AR/southern MO this afternoon. Southern locations look to reach 60 degrees again tomorrow before cooler air funnels in.
926 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2017 High pressure will slide east overnight with the approach of a cold front, which will bring shower chances later tomorrow afternoon and evening and a return of near normal temperatures through the weekend.
The nocturnal inversion will set up this evening and become strong with winds in the lowest 2K feet under 10 knots and surface winds calm or nearly calm. I nudged the lows tonight up 1-2 degrees and now have low to mid 50s across the area.
For 00z Aviation discussion below A cold front from eastern North Dakota southwestward across central South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle will continue heading east this evening. Temperatures will cool this evening and fire weather conditions will thus improve, although gusty winds should continue ahead of and behind the cold front tonight.
Building high pressure will bring mostly dry conditions to Northwest California through the remainder of the work week, although the north coast may see light rain Thursday evening. A cold upper trough will bring the next chance for rain this weekend with possible snow accumulations at mountain passes. Areas above the fog and below 3,000 feet will likely see temperatures above 36 as a warmer airmass slowly filters in.
Persistent band of low stratus extends across much of eastern OK, and will likely persist through much of tonight until a weak cold front arrives early Thursday morning. The low cloudiness will mostly dissipate Thursday, but a fair amount of higher level cloudiness will be present Thursday into the weekend. A warming trend will be taking place into the weekend, but the high clouds may keep afternoon readings a bit below their full potential.
1020 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2017 High pressure will visit for tonight and early Thursday. A cold front will cross the region on Thursday night, bringing scattered light showers.
503 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2017 A cold front will move through the region late this evening. Southwest winds due to a weak lee trough can be expected until our next weak cold front arrives later this evening and overnight. Temperatures should drop into the low to mid 30s overnight behind the front then top out in the 50s Thursday afternoon.
Aside from some wind gusts from lee troughing in Eastern Colorado, the weather is rather quiet today. This evening, the low in Colorado will move south, keeping the pressure gradient and therefore, wind, in far Southwest Kansas for an hour or so after sundown. Wind will shift from southerly to northwesterly overnight as a cold dome of high pressure moves into western Kansas. While some high clouds move into the region tonight, lows will still be subfreezing for most of Southwestern Kansas. High pressure will remain in place during the day tomorrow with few clouds, causing high temperatures to remain in the upper 50s.
The compact upper wave Ozark Plateau will rapidly translate eastward this evening into the lower Appalachians. The lower atmosphere remains too moisture starved to support precipitation this evening. Shallower isentropic ascent will increase in advance of the lower level trof axis late tonight, supporting lower cloud development within the warm conveyor belt. The trough may pass through far northwest AL before much in the way of precipitation can occur there, so our highest PoP (chance to likely) will be across the southeast 2/3 of our forecast area on Thursday. The Pacific cold front will follow quickly behind the during the afternoon into the evening, ending the precipitation from northwest-southeast.
936 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2017 High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes this evening will move off the New England Coast by sunrise.
626 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2017 A cold front will enter the area later tonight into Thursday, bringing a chance for showers mainly Thursday morning. Clouds will increase with both features with added energy from cutoff low aiding in at least isolated to scattered shower development as the trough passes through in the 10Z to 16Z Thursday window. QPF amounts definitely appear to be trending towards the low side as moisture flux will be rather limited compared to trends of past days.
629 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2017 A weak cold front continued to be analyzed near an ELD/SHV/LFK line as of 00z with the front expected to continue making slow but steady progress eastward towards the MLU terminal during the remainder of the evening hours. Tomorrow, sfc ridging across the South Plains will commence to nudge eastward resulting in sfc winds veering to the northwest. This wind shift will maintain a slightly cooler and drier airmass, with temps only warming into the 60s with a few 70s across the southern zones. Sfc ridging will exit the area by the end of the week, thus sfc winds will veer to the east-southeast.
458 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2017 00Z TAF issuance A weak cold front will bring brief gusty winds to SE NM Thursday morning, otherwise expect VFR conditions through the period. /issued 214 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2017/ A weak cold front will move into the area Thur AM, but other than n- ne winds there will be little sensible change.
Relatively dry upper level trough now making its way across ern Montana, Wyoming and Colorado, with the bulk of the lift well north of here. Strong mid-level westerly flow on the bottom side of this trough now over nern Colorado. Behind the exiting trough, air is several degrees cooler. Lower dewpoints, lighter winds and nearly cloudless skies will allow strong radiation cooling to drop overnight lows in the low/mid 20s on the plains and teens across the high country. Temperatures cool tomorrow by as much as 8-12 degs with a cooler northwest flow aloft. Meanwhile, westerly winds still pretty strong on the mtn ridges and passes with 80-120kt west-northwest mid-level flow.
944 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2017 High pressure builds over the forecast area tonight, bringing clearing skies, light winds and cold temperatures.
The low cloudiness will mostly dissipate Thursday, but a fair amount of higher level cloudiness will be present Thursday into the weekend. A warming trend will be taking place into the weekend, but the high clouds may keep afternoon readings a bit below their full potential.
Therefore, we have cancelled the High Wind Warnings that were in effect for eastern MT and northern WY.
737 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2017 High pressure will linger over the Carolinas, ahead of a weak cold front that will settle into and dissipate over north-central NC early Thursday.
The air mass is still of a highly modified continental polar variety, with current air temperatures in the mid 70s and dewpoint temperatures in the lower 70s. Northeast to east breezes have freshened since afternoon, as expected, and likely will surge further during the next few hours as gradient flow increases between a high pressure area centered over the southeastern United States and a trough of low pressure near the northern Bahamas.
The closed upper low over the southern plains earlier today has opened into a trough that is now located over MS River Valley. The weakening upper trough will exit the region this evening. Lows will be in the lower 50s. A cold front will begin moving through late tonight through Thursday morning. Highs will be a bit cooler on Thursday but still quite mild for this time of year.
554 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2017 Main forecast concerns will be for areas generally along and south of a weak stationary cold front. A reinforcing surge of cooler/drier air is progged to finally push this stalled front off the coast tomorrow morning. 12Z model guidance appears to be struggling with the speed of this drier air (dew points in the lower to mid 60s observed in the Houston metro as of 3 PM CST compared to MOS guidance forecasting dew points in the lower to mid 50s at this time). The greatest potential for this appears to be south and east of the Highway 59 corridor and have concerns that additional moisture contributions from transpiration in rural areas may result in patches of dense fog development.
The system to the north will help bring a low pressure system with its associated cold front across the northern and central parts of the Plains tonight. Winds will shift to the northwest, with low remaining fairly mild in the upper 20s and lower 30s (normal lows are in the lower 20s). That high pressure at the surface builds southeast of the area Thursday night, with winds becoming southerly.
904 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2017 An upper-level wave and associated surface cold front will cross central and southeast Illinois overnight into Thursday morning. A low pressure area in northwest AR is still forecast to weaken as it moves northeast into southern MO this evening. As a Pacific high pressure area builds in behind the front, winds will become northwesterly and clouds will clear out. Given the origin of the high pressure area and lots of sunshine, mild temps in the 50s are expected tomorrow. This high pressure will dominate the weather, along with a very zonal flow pattern, for the rest of the week and into the weekend.
612 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2017 High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes this evening will move off the New England Coast by sunrise.
614 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2017 A cold front will bring cooler weather and showers to the region Thursday night.