Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Under clear skies, with calm winds, temperatures will bottom out in the mid to upper 20s in northwestern Oklahoma to the lower 30s, just above freezing across Texoma. This is primarily due to the low RH values through the afternoon.
Short wave energy in the upper trough will push/pull a front across the region this evening. In the wake of the front high pressure at the surface and weak ridging aloft/rising heights should keep the region dry through the rest of the short term period.
Further to the east, temperatures will fall into the lower teens. Friday still expected to be a recovery day as colder high pressure moves east. Warmer air aloft will also work in which supports warmer highs at the surface, however we will be fighting some snow cover which will use up some of the solar energy and not allow high to reach their full potential.
810 AM EST Thu Mar 2 2017 High pressure will build into the area behind the cold front promoting dry and cooler weather through the weekend. It will be dry behind the cold front today. Dry High pressure will be across the region overnight and through the day Friday. Temperatures Friday will be close to normal, with readings in the lower to middle 60s.
757 AM EST Thu Mar 2 2017 A cold front will move well east of the forecast area this morning.
This weekend we'll see a warm up as an upper level ridge moves in briefly.
424 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2017 A chilly night underway as much cooler air is spreading into the area on gusty northerly winds. Temperatures are currently running anywhere from 10 to nearly 25 degrees cooler than this time yesterday, ranging from 48 at Jasper to 62 at Patterson. Aloft, flow is nearly zonal beneath a longwave trough crossing the eastern CONUS.
455 AM MST Thu Mar 2 2017 Winds out near Arlington and Elk Mountain area have weakened below warning thresholds, so allowed the high wind warning to expire earlier at 11pm. The sfc pressure gradient and upper level winds will remain low enough today to keep the strong winds at bay, but it will still be breezy across southeast Wyoming with broad high pressure situated out to our west.
503 AM CDT Tue Mar 14 2017 Upper level trough has moved east of the region but vigorous northwest flow in the lower levels could drag MVFR ceilings southward across the ELD/MLU terminals through the morning.
Temps down in the lower 20s is allowing accumulation on roadways that are not impacted by skiffing or drifting due to northeast winds 10-20 mph. Area of light snow over eastern IA and northwest IL is expected to diminish to flurries and end by around daybreak or shortly thereafter south of the Quad Cities, as the low level flow turns northerly washing out the convergence ahead of an approaching dome of high pressure. Tonight, high pressure will build closer to the region. The main core of the high and light winds though looks to remain just to our west.
103 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017 Cold front moving across the area tonight will continue to produce MVFR to IFR cigs/vsby for the remainder of the overnight hours at all terminals.
407 AM CDT Tue Mar 14 2017 Upper level northwesterly flow on the backside of the main low pressure system moving up the East Coast was common across the Central United States this morning. Behind the exiting high pressure.
NW winds 5-10kts to start the TAF period will gradually diminish overnight, becoming Lt/Vrb by late morning as sfc ridging builds S into the region. Freezing temps have not been uncommon North of I-30 over the last few weeks otherwise might have even put out a warning.
Strong low pressure will move off the mid atlantic coast. However a closed upper low will remain over the eastern U.
/DL/ A cold front pushed through the CWA today with CAA underway area wide. /TW/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Tuesday: A trough, currently observed on water vapor imagery swinging southeast out of the plains and into the Southeast United States, will continue to force a cold front into and through the CWA this afternoon into tonight. High pressure will build into the region in the wake of the front on Tuesday. Once again, some clouds will remain present in the north along the Highway 82 corridor, resulting in partly cloudy skies there Tuesday afternoon. Although temperatures are expected to fall to below freezing in some areas, dry conditions and significant winds will also limit frost development.
Lower-lying areas of the Hill Country are becoming calm and thus may fall into the upper 30s with very patchy ground fog, but elsewhere temperatures will gradually fall into the lower to mid 40s as winds decrease. Northwest flow aloft with relatively high pressure at the surface will allow for a picturesque early spring day with sunny skies and highs very similar to yesterday in the upper 60s to lower 70s with some mid 70s in the Rio Grande Plains.
631 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017 Low pressure along the VA coast will continue moving north this morning.
Thus with issuance will drop prior winter weather advisory as mid march longwave solar flux allowing pavement temps to broach freezing with little if any road based impacts expected going forward. Rapid deepening of east coast bomb this period underway with phasing upper low through the ern OH valley.
328 AM CDT Tue Mar 14 2017 A deep upper trough over the Great Lakes will continue to be the primary weather-maker across central Illinois today. As high pressure builds into the region tonight, skies will clear from west to east and temperatures will plunge. High pressure will dominate the weather on Wednesday, providing sunny but cold conditions with highs once again remaining below normal in the lower to middle 30s. As the high shifts off to the east, southerly return flow will begin Wednesday night, resulting in increasing cloud cover and slightly warmer lows in the teens and lower 20s.
1111 PM MDT Mon Mar 13 2017 The front edge of the ridge is sliding across the Rockies this afternoon and denoted by the high level cloudiness dropping southward. The energy over the Great Lakes and Southeast will be merging into the Nor'Easter over the next 24 hours and this will allow the ridge to amplify and expand eastward. This will not only raise heights over our region but push the high cloudiness to the east.
IR Satl imagery indicates that the low cld decks over the RGV are eroding away from the north to the south as drier air continues to filter into the area. The low level flow will then shift around from the east to southeast late in the current TAF period which will allow the low level dewpoints to start rebounding. /issued 253 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): Deep northerly flow continues behind the cold front, with moisture trapped under inversion at 1500 feet. Latest satellite imagery shows drier air already beginning to erode out the low level clouds, with main surface dry air just to the north, which will sweep into the region overnight.
High pressure remains over our area again for today, with well above normal temperatures, light winds and mostly clear skies. The high temperature yesterday in Reno tied a record of 77 degrees that was previously set in 2013. The high temperature for today will be near or just slightly warmer than what we saw yesterday, but the record temperature is a bit higher at 80 degrees and may not get tied or broken today. Expect to see winds increasing for areas north of I-80 with valley gusts around 35-45 mph and Sierra ridges increasing to near 70-80 mph Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.
No changes to headlines were made with this update but may be necessary overnight if ongoing trends continue Bulk of the heaviest snow should be done by mid-morning outside of the ridges where snow rates should pick up during the afternoon as flow becomes west-northwest on the backside of the departing coastal as it moves into New England. Strong cold advection and the pivoting upper trough will support further accumulation through the day Tuesday and Tuesday night as the upper low transitions over the region.
Light surface winds during the day on Tuesday will trend to west and north by 21z as a weak trof around 850 mb translates east into forecast area. /Issued 359 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017/ An upper ridge over the Intermountain West Region tonight through the middle of the week will allow for a dry northwesterly upper flow across the Panhandles. The upper ridge will build east across the Panhandles and Plains States by late in the week.
An area of high pressure is expected to advance towards the east over southwest Ontario Canada tonight and through the day Tuesday, keeping the Northland within the anti-cyclonic flow associated with the high. Both the GFS/NAM models are showing a good slug of moisture as higher relative humidity values in the low-levels sweep southward over northwest Wisconsin. Elsewhere, high pressure should remain in control over the region through Tuesday. Mostly clear skies are expected overnight tonight due to the high pressure overhead. This, coupled with the light winds associated with the high, should lead to a good radiational cooling night tonight. Meanwhile, surface ridging will cover the region.
High pressure will dominate our weather this week, with temperatures well above average and dry conditions for Southeast Arizona. A ridge will continue to build into the area from the west today with near record high temperatures and dry conditions.
441 AM CDT Tue Mar 14 2017 Not much for changes in this forecast package as the upper level patterns continues holding upper level ridging to the west, leaving the Panhandles in northwest flow aloft. Lee side troughing will bring warmer temps today for the area.
As the area of low pressure this band is associated with lifts northeast across Florida overnight, the rain will clear out from north to south by sunrise. Cautionary to low end advisory level winds will continue through midweek, with conditions gradually improving Wednesday night as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
A few thin lines of showers continue across the area this morning as the cold front pushes across the area. Cloudy skies this morning will gradually clear out through the late morning and early afternoon as some cooler and drier air moves into the area. Highs this afternoon are expected in the lower 60s north to the lower 70s south. Another dry front will then move through the area Tuesday night into early Wednesday as an upper trough remains in place over the eastern U.
At the surface, cold front that is ushering in some of the coldest temperatures yet this winter is beginning to approach the TN-NC border this morning. All pcpn winds down by Wednesday morning with accumulations of up to 1-3 inches still possible in the higher elevations of the Smoky Mountains and SW VA through that time. Temperatures tonight will drop into the lower 20s and upper teens across much of the area putting the overnight lows in the top 10 for this winter season.
By tomorrow morning, the upper ridge will be on our doorstep as we'll be along the interface between a (warm) ridge and a (cool) trough under a northwest to southeast oriented jet.
As a mid-level low moves eastward, passing just south of the Great Lakes, an the upper level trough digs southward into the region tonight. A few slick spots could cause a few problems with refreezing. Lake effect snow showers should be ending during Wednesday evening as sfc ridging builds in with model soundings and RH cross sections showing drying and subsidence.
This high pressure will settle over Ohio River Valley tomorrow evening.
655 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017 Upper low pressure will maintain cold and snow showers through Wednesday. Deep low pressure continues to shunt moisture over the Eastern Seasboard this morning with the back edge of the main precip shield lingering over the ridges of the Upper Ohio Region.
259 AM CDT Tue Mar 14 2017 A band of very light snow from the Dakotas into Nebraska and northern Kansas is associated with a sheared and very weak vort max on the back side of the large upper trough to the east. Freeze warning remains in effect for far southern parts of the forecast area which have experienced more growing degree days (warmer temperatures/more growth) this season, but obviously any blossoming vegetation further north is at risk as well.
137 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017 Low pressure will move from West Virginia to the East Coast tonight. Scattered snow showers will be possible on Tuesday in the cold northerly flow behind the low. Cold and mainly dry weather is expected Wednesday as high pressure becomes centered over the Mississippi Valley.
1201 AM CDT Tue Mar 14 2017 A relatively small area of light freezing drizzle, along with a few snow showers, has developed late this afternoon and will continue to push southeast through the eastern half or so of the forecast area early this evening. For the most part, impacts should be minimal with this freezing drizzle given warm ground and road temperatures. However, a few slick spots on area bridges and overpasses are not out of the question. A cold front moved through the area early today. Ahead of the high some flurries will be possible across portions of southeastern Kansas and western Missouri, but again no accumulations will occur. Lows Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will drop into the upper teens to the lower 20s leading to another hard freeze. Highs on Wednesday will generally warm into the lower 40s.
Secondary surge of cooler air will result in low temps tonight in the 40s and 50s. Concur with the GFS/ECMWF/NAM deterministic which predict the upper trough to continue to move across the ERN CONUS during the period with the CWA/MSA under a region of subsidence. This surge will result in the advection of cooler/drier air and maintain offshore flow over the MSA tonight. will forecast SCEC conditions over the Offshore MSA (slightly warmer SST values.
Quiet, dry and warmer than yesterday. A longwave ridge-trough configuration will begin the period (Tuesday Night-Wednesday) across the CONUS with a very large, cold Canadian high continuing its push across the central/eastern CONUS. While our winds will eventually shift around to the southeast then south, our warmup will only be fairly modest as the low level trajectories will still be coming around the departing high. As such, Wednesday highs will range from the lower 70s at Elkhart to the mid to upper 50s across Central KS.
Temperatures will warm this week as upstream ridge axis advects in a warmer air mass.
314 AM CDT Tue Mar 14 2017 A large upper level low will shift southeast through the Great Lakes and Midwest. Some guidance is trying to produce some small/minor chances for precip Thu in the low level warm air advection regime.
330 AM CDT Tue Mar 14 2017 Will start the day with an upper ridge over the Intermountain West and a trough extending from the Great Lakes down to the Gulf Coast.
626 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017 Northerly winds will be found over the Ohio Valley in between a strong east coast low pressure center and high pressure over the Upper Midwest. A strong upper level low will cross into the northern Ohio Valley from the Great Lakes today.
Upper ridge forecast to build slowly eastward from the Great Basin across the Rockies Tue and Wed, leading to very warm and dry conditions across the area both days. Heights and mid level temps continue to rise on Wed as ridge approaches, with Colorado Springs and Pueblo nearing record highs, though current forecast is just a couple degf short.
Light synoptic snowfall with mid level deformation has cleared our northwest Ohio counties leaving a mainly dry morning as more veered northeasterly flow in the low levels keeps any lake effect snow west of the forecast area through at least mid morning. A subtle/secondary trough axis will swing through the area this afternoon on the southwest fringe of deep PV intrusion translating into southeast MI (1.
343 AM MDT Tue Mar 14 2017 High pressure over the Great Basin will be gaining strength over the next 48 hours promising more warm and dry weather for our forecast area. Have nudged temps down slightly for today as latest satellite imagery still showing enough dirt in the ridge to shade the sun at times today and struggled to warm yesterday with clouds in place. It will be warmer, but the chase for record heat will wait for one more day. Ridge slides east on Wednesday with flow going more westerly and southwesterly by late in the day. This will finally kick the high clouds out for a day and allow temps to jump up a good 5 degrees in most areas, putting many of the valleys within striking range of record heat.
Highs today should be in the 70s acrs most of the southeast plains and in the 60s in the high valleys. Min RH values this afternoon and the lower elevations should mostly be below 20 percent, with the driest conditions expected along the I-25 corridor.
150 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017 Low pressure off the NC coast will continue moving away from the area this morning. The low will track into the New England states today with colder and drier air moving into the region as cold high pressure crosses the region.
High pressure will continue building over the western Great Lakes today, bringing drier air into the region. The high will continue tracking south on Wednesday, with dry weather persisting and temperatures moderating a bit to the upper 20s to lower 30s.
The mid-level wave that's supposed to move through in northwest flow later tonight can be inferred in water vapor imagery to be moving into southern Alberta at this time, rounding the top of the western CONUS upper level ridge. BUFKIT soundings support potential for light freezing rain, but not looking for amounts to be more than a couple hundredths of an inch.
A strong baroclinic zone extends across western North Dakota between the arctic high and the milder air across Montana developing from a chinook flow that will play an important role in light freezing rain Tuesday night. The snow will end Tuesday morning then a stronger push of warm air aloft Tuesday afternoon will bring a slight chance for rain or freezing rain far west. A better chance for freezing rain will spread across west and central North Dakota Tuesday night. This certainly could rise to a freezing rain advisory Tuesday night if the NAM is correct but at this time feel it is the outlier.
246 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017 Developing low pressure off of Cape Fear early this morning will move northward along the East Coast today and Wednesday.
Warmer air moves into the western and southwestern parts of the area with 850mb temperatures and bias corrected grids supporting low to mid 60s. 573-576dm ridge axis moves toward the area during the day, remaining over the area during the night. 850mb temperatures warm about 11f to 24f across the area compared to Tuesday supporting highs in the low 60s east, mid 70s west.
Once the low levels have saturate more the light snow has reached the ground. Although if precipitation can persist at some locations into the afternoon than perhaps keeping temperatures in the lower 30s. These near freezing temperatures will also inhibit snow from accumulating much on the roadways. Wednesday through Wednesday night, the intense upper level trough across New England and the mid atlantic states will slowly lift northeast into eastern Canada and off the eastern US coast. Highs will warm slightly into the lower to mid 40s across the eastern CWA with upper 40s to lower 50s across the western CWA. Southerly winds Wednesday night winds will keep overnight lows in the lower to mid 30s.
Warm weather will peak today as upper level ridge axis passes through from west to east. Light rain is expected today on northern CWA border on the periphery of the ridge. Wednesday should be about 5 degrees cooler than today except in south-central Idaho which will be almost as warm as today. As upper ridge shifts east, rain in the north will gradually spread south through Wednesday.
431 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017 Northerly winds will be found over the Ohio Valley in between a strong east coast low pressure center and high pressure over the Upper Midwest. A strong upper level low will cross into the northern Ohio Valley from the Great Lakes today.
351 AM CDT Tue Mar 14 2017 Cooler drier air will continue to move into the region behind a developing Nor'easter for the Mid-Atlantic/New England states today.
The weak upper trough over the Region will continue to move eastward resulting in increasing subsidence over the CWA/MSA during the period.
Increasing southerly flow will draw moisture north with sfc dewpoints progged to reach the lower and middle 50s by daybreak. Models suggest the development of stratus and fog with the moisture return during the overnight hours with models suggesting the lowest visibilities and the potential for dense fog across our western zones. There is some uncertainty in the extent and the duration of the low cloud cover from the morning hours which would limit instability.
A deep low pressure center well off the Washington coast will gradually weaken and shift north over the next couple of days.
East to southeast low level flow was the rule over the Central Plains with high pressure over Minnesota.
Will maintain slight chance PoPs, especially from Tucson eastward as the trough axis still remains to our west. Ridging aloft will quickly build in on Tuesday with dry conditions expected area-wide.
There is an impressive low pressure system off the Pacific Northwest coast that is spreading moisture across the entire western CONUS and Rockies. Ridging has set up across the center of the U. and high pressure has settled overhead in MN/WI today.
830 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 A cold front will move through the forecast area tonight with a reinforcing shot of cool air through Midweek. A cold front will move south and through the region during the 03z-06z time frame. A broad upper ridge will build over the Southeast. High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the north at the surface. Slightly below normal high temperatures are forecast, in the lower to middle 70s. An upper-ridge over the center of the country will promote northwesterly flow aloft over the southeastern states through midweek.
Tuesday Night Through Monday Tuesday night drying will spread from west to east as a broad high pressure ridge aloft builds over the area.
This front brought slightly cooler conditions to central Missouri, but warmer conditions were still occurring across southern MO. The front will lift back to the north tomorrow with highs in the lower 70s to the upper 70s expected across the area.
Cirrus clouds continue to stream across the area this afternoon as an upper-level trough axis digs southward into the Gulf. This will keep highs in the upper 70s right along the Georgia state line, while elsewhere the warming trend will continue with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Strong high pressure is forecast to build over the state for the remainder of the week. Impressive low level moisture surge pushing up through the lower Colorado and up to and near Las Vegas, NV today. Surface dewpoint temperatures in the low 60s as of this writing with a line of thunderstorms that extends from San Diego to southern UT.
Temperatures remain seasonably mild in the low-mid 60s across the interior and Gulf coast and upper 60s/around 70 along the east coast. High pressure extends across the southeastern states and into the Florida peninsula.
Ridge axis across north central Florida with winds already going calm near the axis this evening.
Cloud cover should remain in place for much of the area tonight and this will keep low temperatures in the lower to middle 60s. High temperatures tomorrow will top out in the lower to middle 80s.
A dry cold front will continue to push south of the mid state overnight. High pressure at the sfc will build in and maintain a light northeasterly flow through the period.