Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1039 AM MST Wed Dec 11 2019 Upper level analysis has large trof across the Great Lakes region with ridge over the Northern Rockies. At the surface, Arctic high is located across the Dakotas with lee trof developing across Montana into eastern WY. Temperatures across the forecast area at 3am range from the single digits across north central SD, to the lower 30s in southern Campbell County in WY. Upper ridge will flatten and shift into the Northern Plains today with slightly warmer air moving into the area aloft. As arctic air slowly departs the western SD plains, areas of light freezing fog along the eastern edge of the Black Hills will slowly dissipate by late morning. Weak upper ridging continues into Thursday with mild temperatures expected.
The lingering sky cover and cooler air behind the cold front which passed through last night, has kept temps lower than expected today with highs only in the upper-40s to low-50s for most of the forecast area, and wind chills in the upper 30s to lower 40s around the metro. Clear skies expected to continue tonight with lows in the low to mid 30s. Tomorrow, mid-level troughing will move into the southern plains placing the forecast area in WSW flow.
High pressure/dry air now settled over the region. Full sun expected today and temps are expected to lift into the low/mid 40s. High pressure influences will keep VFR conditions in place today and tonight with clear skies.
Based on new model output, bufkit soundings, and track of short wave trough/lift coming through our cwa tonight, have increased pops through this time period. Cloud cover persists across portions of central South Dakota at this hour, keeping temperatures at bay above zero, but high pressure has built in further northeast and skies have cleared. Cloud cover will continue to complicate the temperature forecast today, keeping those underneath warmer than not. Snow, as opposed to freezing drizzle, appears most likely as there will be saturation in the DGZ with cloud bases around 2000 ft.
The Pressure gradient relaxes somewhat on Thursday, but with the continued low level southerly flow will see highs highs to top off in the low to mid 50s.
TFJ MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with the coldest airmass settled over Ontario and its influence running back west to the high Plains of the northern US and Canada. A relatively warm ridge runs up the North American Coast into Alaska whose influence spills over the Intermountain west and right up to the front range.
1214 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2019 Dry high pressure will build into the area from the north through Thursday.
Thereafter, will begin to see ceilings develop (albeit VFR at this time) as low-level flow turns a bit more srly with high pressure moving east of the area and mid-level flow also gains a srly component with the approach of the next wave aloft. /issued 542 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019/ The cold front that moved through yesterday morning has moved into the central gulf this morning. The area of high pressure to our north is expected to move rapidly to the northeast and looks to be in the New England states by sunrise on Thursday. but the high ridge back down into Texas and Louisiana.
Passing cold front now well east, dry air in place. and weak upper trough axis swinging by now. then eventually dragging a swath of rain, and a cold front across the mid-state Mon/Mon night. High pressure influences will keep VFR conditions in place today and tonight with clear skies.
Surface analysis this morning places a 1036 MB ridge of high pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley. /issued 258 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019/ Skies are clear across the Mid-South early this morning with temperatures in the lower 20s to the lower 30s. High pressure will spread across the region today providing dry weather and below normal temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 40s. Tonight, the high will be moving east of the region allowing winds to shift to the south and begin to bring somewhat milder air to the Mid- South. Thursday will remain dry as high pressure remains over the Mid-Atlantic region. Temperatures will be a little warmer with highs in the low to mid 50s. By Thursday night, low pressure is expected to develop over the western Gulf of Mexico.
1049 AM MST Wed Dec 11 2019 Have added eastern Platte County to the High Wind Warning for today, since winds at Coleman have been sustained at 47 mph gusting to 66 mph in the past half hour.
Even with the cloud coverage expected later tonight, overnight lows will range from the lower 30s across the Hill Country to mid and upper 30s over the rest of the area. Clouds are forecast to dissipate about mid to late Thursday morning with mostly sunny skies expected for the afternoon with high temperatures reaching the lower to mid 60s.
Precipitation tapering off this morning across Central Idaho has the upper level trough exits. The Western Magic Valley will see a wintry mix of rain, snow and freezing rain through 11 AM MST.
/KW/ Through Tonight: Sunny skies have returned across the CWA this morning and temperatures have begun to warm up quickly this morning into the mid to upper 30s across northern zones and into the lower 40s across southern zones. With clear skies and light winds, ideal radiational cooling tonight drops temperatures down below freezing for most into the upper 20s and lower 30s.
845 AM PST Wed Dec 11 2019 Added freezing drizzle for the rest of this morning across the Spokane/Coeur d'Alene corridor. This next one will be a warmer system, however it will carry significantly more moisture and will likely lead to a heavy snow in the mountains. A few reports coming in of freezing drizzle around the Spokane area this morning. The good news is that temperatures should warm up above freezing in the afternoon. Until then though, temperatures will be below freezing with very slick roads around the region. Once the snow ends the main challenge will be what to do with the low clouds and fog left behind.
Could also see some patchy shallow ground fog develop in some of the low lying areas but should be rather isolated. Looks like a nice day shaping up for Thursday, with mostly sunny skies, light winds and warmer temperatures. Lows tonight will be in the lower to middle 30s, with highs on Thursday in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 29 54 40 50 45 / 0 10 70 90 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 28 51 35 48 43 / 0 10 70 90 80 Oak Ridge, TN 27 51 35 47 41 / 0 0 60 90 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 25 48 31 48 40 / 0 0 60 90 80.
Through Tonight: Sunny skies have returned across the CWA this morning and temperatures have begun to warm up quickly this morning into the mid to upper 30s across northern zones and into the lower 40s across southern zones. With clear skies and light winds, ideal radiational cooling tonight drops temperatures down below freezing for most into the upper 20s and lower 30s.
1240 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2019 Dry high pressure will build into the area from the north through Thursday.
222 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2019 An upper trough is over the northeast part of the country and another weak trough is over the mountains of the western U. The upper trough from the west will move over the central part of the country on Thursday resulting in surface winds across West Texas and southeast New Mexico becoming southwesterly to westerly.
Will either extend the High Wind Warning or cancel the warning early.
Warm air advection continues across the area this afternoon as low pressure deepens over the Colorado Front Range. Into this evening and tonight, the Colorado low will kick out of the Front Range as an upper trough traverses the region. The low will track over northwestern KS, then into eastern NE by early tomorrow morning. Additionally, low and mid-level ascent aided by slight theta-e advection, the LLJ and PVA ahead of the trough will develop over the area tonight. Tomorrow looks to be a touch warmer than today with highs reaching the mid 50s in most locations.
A moist flow may bring some light precipitation over the high sierra tonight. Otherwise high pressure will provide dry weather with dense fog possible across the San Joaquin Valley.
352 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2019 Mostly clear skies are expected this evening with temperatures dropping into the low to mid 20s, then southerly winds will slowly increase overnight, bringing a gradual rise in temperatures through morning.
352 PM MST Wed Dec 11 2019 A fast moving, mid-level trough will cross the CWA this evening. Very little moisture is tied to this disturbance, but some shower activity will track across the region as the trough axis passes.
Surface analysis this afternoon places a 1034 MB ridge of high pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Temperatures will be in the low 60s north of I-4, warming to the upper 60s in Martin and St. The cold front that moved through the northern parts of the area will stall near the Jupiter Inlet overnight.
This next one will be a warmer system, however it will carry significantly more moisture and will likely lead to a heavy snow in the mountains.
432 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2019 A broad upper level trough extends from the Gulf of Mexico poleward to the the Hudson Bay. At the surface, the cold front has drifted south into central Florida. High pressure centered over Tennessee is helping to drive this front and effectively stalling as it moves east. Another high pressure cell over the upper Mississippi River Valley is quickly moving southeast and will reinforce the aforementioned high pressure.
Avery Active winter weather will continue over the foreseeable future across the area as the upper flow will consist of an upper trough/low over central Canada that will supply the area with arctic air, keeping temperatures below normal through the period, especially over the northern zones (along and north of the Missouri/Milk Rivers). Then a closed low over the Gulf of Alaska opens up and brings a broad trough in over the western states.
339 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2019 Short wave trough in eastern MT late this afternoon will make its way southeast and into northern SD tonight. Therefore, expect radar echoes to increase this evening as lift from this trough moves in along with strong low and mid level waa occurring over the Arctic air. Another short wave trough will move into the northern part of the region Thursday night. Thursday will be a little warmer than today with mainly teens to the mid 20s expected.
545 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2019 Mostly clear skies are expected this evening with temperatures dropping into the low to mid 20s, then southerly winds will slowly increase overnight, bringing a gradual rise in temperatures through morning.
/Tonight through Thursday Night/ Near-zonal upper flow in place across the region and much of the ern CONUS atop high pressure and a dry airmass at the sfc. Light winds and clear skies overnight will result in another chilly night, with temps falling to or below freezing at most sites. Sly winds and peeks of sun will allow for warmer temps than today's, although they still look to remain below normal.
/Issued 348 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2019/ Low clouds lingered over Nueces, Jim Wells, and Kleberg counties this afternoon, where temperatures are still in the low 50s. This will keep low temperatures a few degrees warmer than last night.
348 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2019 Low clouds lingered over Nueces, Jim Wells, and Kleberg counties this afternoon, where temperatures are still in the low 50s. This will keep low temperatures a few degrees warmer than last night.
/issued 222 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2019/ An upper trough is over the northeast part of the country and another weak trough is over the mountains of the western U. The upper trough from the west will move over the central part of the country on Thursday resulting in surface winds across West Texas and southeast New Mexico becoming southwesterly to westerly.
Short wave trough in eastern MT late this afternoon will make its way southeast and into northern SD tonight. Therefore, expect radar echoes to increase this evening as lift from this trough moves in along with strong low and mid level waa occurring over the Arctic air. Another short wave trough will move into the northern part of the region Thursday night. Thursday will be a little warmer than today with mainly teens to the mid 20s expected.
915 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2019 Updated at 915 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2019 Dropped the low temperatures tonight a few degrees in the Blue Grass given current trends. A light return flow will commence Thu afternoon and an upper level trough will approach the Ohio Valley from the west.
233 PM MST Wed Dec 11 2019 Active winter weather will continue over the foreseeable future across the area as the upper flow will consist of an upper trough/low over central Canada that will supply the area with arctic air, keeping temperatures below normal through the period, especially over the northern zones (along and north of the Missouri/Milk Rivers). Then a closed low over the Gulf of Alaska opens up and brings a broad trough in over the western states.
Slightly warmer than normal temperatures are expected through the end of the week along with considerable cloudiness.
811 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2019 Mostly clear skies are expected this evening with temperatures dropping into the low to mid 20s, then southerly winds will slowly increase overnight, bringing a gradual rise in temperatures through morning.
A frontal boundary associated with a low pressure system off the coast is moving across Central OR and WA, with radar showing snow and rain showers impacting Western and portions of Central OR and WA at this time.
The cloudcover along with increasing south winds keep nighttime temperatures a little bit warmer than last night. Still expecting slightly warmer than normal temperatures in the short range of the forecast, with little change to the previous forecast values.
Elsewhere, clouds and modest wly wind component should keep min temps warmer than the past few nights, with even usually cold high valleys staying above 0f.
334 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2019 Warm air advection continues across the area this afternoon as low pressure deepens over the Colorado Front Range. Into this evening and tonight, the Colorado low will kick out of the Front Range as an upper trough traverses the region. The low will track over northwestern KS, then into eastern NE by early tomorrow morning. Additionally, low and mid-level ascent aided by slight theta-e advection, the LLJ and PVA ahead of the trough will develop over the area tonight. Tomorrow looks to be a touch warmer than today with highs reaching the mid 50s in most locations.
Majority of solutions maintain this layer into Thursday morning before breaking up with veered westerly low level flow and drier conditions behind a weak upper trough passing aloft. High temperatures tomorrow will be pleasant and in the lower 60s from the west winds in response to an upper-level trough that will pivot over the southern Great Plains.
404 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2019 The latest surface map features high pressure positioned from the Arklatex region up into the Tennessee and Ohio valleys. A weak cold front is tracking southeast and east from the Great Lakes through the Midwest. Aloft, a short wave trough is moving east towards the Appalachians, with more zonal flow moving in from the central CONUS.
Passing cold front now well east, dry air in place. and weak upper trough axis swinging by now. then eventually dragging a swath of rain, and a cold front across the mid-state Mon/Mon night. High pressure in control overnight.
The southwest winds will bring warmer air into the region, allowing high temperatures to get to around 60. Overnight, as the broad area of low pressure moves east, winds will remain in the 5 to 10 mile an hour range and turn out of the west. Temperatures should be warmer than the past couple of nights; only in the low 40s.
Lee side troughing developing in eastern Colorado will deepen this evening in response, tapping into increased moisture to our south and raising surface dewpoints somewhat ahead of an advancing attendant frontal boundary. Above normal temperatures are likely tonight as prevailing southerlies draw warmer air into western Kansas, not to mention increasing moisture with surface dewpoints climbing well into the 20s(F) to near 30F by early morning. The passage of the weak frontal boundary is expected to have little effect on the air mass spread across the high plains.
Hourly temps were running cooler than forecast. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 28 52 38 46 44 / 0 10 60 70 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 26 50 35 46 43 / 0 10 60 70 70 Oak Ridge, TN 27 50 35 45 42 / 0 0 50 70 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 23 49 32 49 41 / 0 0 50 80 80.
133 AM MST Thu Dec 12 2019 Upper level analysis shows weak ridging over the western CONUS, and a weak trough sliding through the central states. Today, warmer air will advect into the area as the frontal boundary shifts northeastward, allowing temperatures most places to rise into the 30s and 40s. Right behind tonight's wave will be another on Friday, accompanied by a cold front and more light precipitation.
Front will shift a little further north and east across the area as a warm front on Thursday, allowing for a warmup across the area Thursday into Friday. The next system will move further south across the region, dragging a cold front across the area as well, on Friday.
Evening update: minor update to add mention of potential freezing rain from the Waterville Plateau to the northern portions of the Columbia Basin into the Spokane/C'dA area and portions of the northern Panhandle this evening, shifting northward overnight and diminishing into Thursday morning.
Coming and going stratus tough to pinpoint times especially with a fairly extensive cirrus cloud shield mostly blocking details of the low cloud layer below. Regardless, we still expect an upper level low pressure trough steering through eastern New Mexico towards the Texas Panhandle and South Plains to pass east later in the night leading to veering and drying flow with VFR by early to mid morning. Majority of solutions maintain this layer into Thursday morning before breaking up with veered westerly low level flow and drier conditions behind a weak upper trough passing aloft. High temperatures tomorrow will be pleasant and in the lower 60s from the west winds in response to an upper-level trough that will pivot over the southern Great Plains. After this upper-level trough exits the region, surface winds will shift to the northwest for Friday.
This next one will be a warmer system, however it will carry significantly more moisture and will likely lead to a heavy snow in the mountains. Evening update: minor update to add mention of potential freezing rain from the Waterville Plateau to the northern portons of the Columbia Basin into the Spokane/C'dA area and portions of the northern Panhandle this evening, shifting northward overnight and diminishing into Thursday morning.
With this front however the deep layer trough will flatten out and the flow become zonal. Enjoy it while you can because by midweek a weak deep layer trough digs into the Gulf and with it returning moisture. This will be the focus of the low clouds overnight and tomorrow.
High pressure will continue to dominate the local weather tonight resulting in cool and dry conditions.
Updated at 915 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2019 Dropped the low temperatures tonight a few degrees in the Blue Grass given current trends. A light return flow will commence Thu afternoon and an upper level trough will approach the Ohio Valley from the west.
Will either extend the High Wind Warning or cancel the warning early. A bit cooler on Friday with cloud cover.
A short wave trough currently moving across the Rockies is forcing low level cyclogenesis over Colorado, Wyoming, and Montana.
High pressure is currently over the eastern Ohio Valley. This high will allow one more day of dry weather for the Mid-South today. Temperatures will be similar to yesterday with highs in the low to mid 50s. This low is expected to move north today and tonight. As the low gets closer to the Louisiana coast, rain showers will start to move north into Gulf Coast states. Temperatures will be a couple degrees cooler than today with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
1113 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2019 Mostly clear skies are expected this evening with temperatures dropping into the low to mid 20s, then southerly winds will slowly increase overnight, bringing a gradual rise in temperatures through morning.
The cloudcover along with increasing south winds keep nighttime temperatures a little bit warmer than last night. Still expecting slightly warmer than normal temperatures in the short range of the forecast, with little change to the previous forecast values. Another short wave will be digging across the Central Plains on Friday night, which will push a dry cold front into the Southern Plains.
Temperatures will fall below freezing across the entire area under clear skies and a full moon. Surface analysis this afternoon places a 1034 MB ridge of high pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley.
VFR conditions will prevail tonight as high pressure dominates the local weather.
A perturbed upper flow pattern exists over the CONUS with lee troughing in the Cntrl US and ridging over the Pac NW. Through Thurs, upper troughing will deepen and dig into the Cntrl/Srn US, with a few small perturbations traversing through the flow on Thurs afternoon. Temps will warm into the lower-50s Thurs afternoon with lows dipping near the freezing point across the north and mid-30s farther to the south. Fri, the aforementioned trough axis will continue to dig Swrd, taking on a slightly negative stance and begin shifting Ewrd by Fri night. Subsidence over the region will once again hinder precip chances, with temps in the mid-50s and lows in the low- to mid-30s across AR.
In the end some could see a dusting to one inch of snow, with the highest totals from Windom to Spencer.
258 AM PST Thu Dec 12 2019 Building high pressure will bring warmer weather through Friday. A trough moving over California this weekend will bring cooler weather along with gusty winds in the mountains and deserts.
421 AM MST Thu Dec 12 2019 Upper level analysis shows weak ridging over the western CONUS, and a weak trough sliding through the central states. Today, warmer air will advect into the area as the frontal boundary shifts northeastward, allowing temperatures most places to rise into the 30s and 40s. Right behind tonight's wave will be another on Friday, accompanied by a cold front and more light precipitation.
A quiet weather pattern is expected though tonight with a weak trough of low pressure moving through the area this morning and a second one tonight.
Aloft the trof pattern will remain to the east with gradual zonal flow developing over the central gulf. Over the weekend partly cloudy skies with afternoon highs into the upper 70s from Beaumont Tx to Lafayette and a bit cooler up towards Alexandria.
524 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019 Under variably cloudy skies along with scattered showers along the island chain and the adjacent coastal waters, temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s on the islands. A weak cold front lying across South Florida, will become stationary today and tonight, before lifting slowly northward up the Sunshine State and the adjacent Atlantic and Gulf waters.
We have decided to hold off on a DFA but will continue to monitor the progress of the low clouds/fog and issue updates as needed.
Am not anticipating any precipitation with the trough moving in as low and mid-levels will remain dry. Thursday, the trough will continue to progress east with northwest flow setting up over the region. For the extended the models are showing a pattern were an upper- level ridge moves over the High Plains.
935 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019 High pressure extending across the region will move off to the east today.