Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
115 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 High pressure will begin to build toward the region from the west today. The high will then settle over the region tonight, then moving east on Sunday. High pressure will settle across the region tonight. Instability and lake effect driven stratocumulus clouds should gradually scatter overnight as the atmosphere cools and the low level winds back away across the Great Lakes. High pressure will move east of the region on Sunday. It will remain cold with highs ranging from the upper teens to the lower 20s. The highest threat for snow is slated for the northern Tri-State region, the Whitewater and Miami Valleys, and west central Ohio. Models are showing an area of snow over the fa at 12Z Monday as a result of isentropic lift out ahead of the low.
349 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018 The center of Arctic high pressure will move eastward across the Ohio Valley through the day, continuing to keep a grip on the wx across Mid TN. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Forecast highlights in the short term period will be a brief period of 'milder' weather tonight into tomorrow, followed by another Arctic cold frontal passage on Sunday. The low clouds will move into south central ND momentarily for several hours tonight as noted via sat imagery and high res boundary layer RH. Strong embedded S/WV will pivot around a large upper level low near the Hudson Bay, moving south-southeast across the southern Canadian prairie provinces tonight then across the Northern Plains on Sunday. This will drive another Arctic cold front through the region, resulting in gusty northwest winds and falling temperatures Sunday afternoon. Also at this time it appears the period where we will see the combination of snow/patchy blowing snow/gusty winds on the leading edge of the cold front/pressure rises will be relatively short.
With a return of south or southwest flow overnight, and the presence of clouds, overnight lows will be warmer. The lowest temperatures appear to come before midnight, before gradually warming toward dawn. In advance of this feature, downsloping flow and a warm front will allow temperatures to rise in the mid 30s to possibly as warm as the mid 40s. The guidance may be a bit optimistic on the temperature forecast given the amount of expected clouds, but even so, temperatures will be warmer.
1128 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2018 Cold high pressure will build in from the west tonight through Sunday and will hold over the area on Monday.
203 AM MST Sun Jan 14 2018 The high amplitude pattern remains over the western U. with the ridge over the Intermountain region and northwest flow across the central high plains region. A fast moving short wave trough moves across the forecast area through the northwest flow aloft between 06Z-12Z. Warmer temperatures are expected on Sunday with high temperatures ranging from the lower 40s in the east to the lower 50s in the west. With RH values near saturation across the northeast overnight along with the short wave trough moving across, there is a possibility of the far northeast and east seeing a few flurries overnight along with persistent low clouds and possibly patchy areas of fog mainly around sunrise.
The next system arrives with scattered snow showers for midweek, along with warmer temperatures. High pressure will be over the area on Sunday for dry weather and a good deal of sunshine.
218 AM MST Sun Jan 14 2018 High pressure will be maintained across the western U.
Arctic high pressure will shift ewd today with sly winds and warm advection beginning. This is in response to a nwly 120 kt jet digging an upper trough from Canada to WI.
/Issued 314 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018/ Another chilly day is well underway across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as high pressure prevails. Any snow that does fall shouldn't last long as temperatures expected to be warmer on Sunday Afternoon than they have been for the past couple of days with highs ranging from the mid 30s to mid 40s. The next arctic cold front is set to move through eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas late Sunday night into Monday with a narrow band of precipitation expected behind the front.
The highest accumulation is projected across Allen County with around an inch possible.
A cold front across southern Saskatchewan and Alberta as of 09 UTC ahead of the next Arctic high pressure system will rapidly propagate from north to south across western and central North Dakota through the morning.
The NW flow begins to break down Monday as a strong upper level trough drops out of Canada and settles across the Great Lakes region. In response to both features a strong cold front with accompanying cold air will move through the area mid-day Monday. that does develop will likely be in the form of freezing drizzle.
140 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 Dry and cool Canadian high pressure will build across the region through Monday.
Otherwise, expect a warmer day areawide with 40s returning this afternoon for most areas outside of northwest AR.
Overnight lows in the lower to middle 20s appear on track.
1256 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 High pressure will maintain dry but cold weather today.
Despite some light downsloping west of the higher terrain and meager warm air advection/height rises, the combination of recent snowpack and cyclonic flow underneath a residual cold dome will only allow for a warmup into generally the mid 20s this afternoon. However, a relatively dry boundary layer will undergo cooling due to wet-bulb effects as initial precipitation/virga falls, therefore likely keeping the brunt of any precipitation in the form of snow as the remainder of the atmospheric column stays below freezing. A deep trough will be in place across the central part of the country, with ridging out across the West, and another trough trying to work onshore from the eastern Pacific.
Satellite imagery showing a few high clouds over the region as an upper ridge axis moves in from the coast, but cloud cover will remain sparse through morning. An upper ridge along the west coast will slide into southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho tonight through Sunday and remain in place through Monday.
Tonight, this high settles southeast across the area under a northwest flow aloft, providing another night of cold and dry weather. A much stronger clipper is expected to affect the local area Sunday night with light snow, then strong winds and falling temperatures with an associated arctic cold front Monday.
1241 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 High pressure will build into the area tonight from the upper Midwest. The high will move quickly eastward to New England by Sunday evening.
1215 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 Arctic high pressure builds in from the northwest today, then tracks east to a position over eastern Canada Monday.
243 AM MST Sun Jan 14 2018 Dry and mild conditions will give way to a cold front that will speed south through the region later this morning through tonight.
1051 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018 A cold front is expected to move through the TAF sites between 10z and 14z. /Issued 520 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018/ Southerly winds will give way to northerly winds as a cold front moves through the TAF sites between 10z and 14z.
This band of light snow will continue to move to the Highway 65 corridor through out Sunday morning before tapering off and decreasing as it moves towards the Highway 63 corridor and south central Missouri. We are still tracking another Arctic cold front to move through the area on Monday with another round of light snow and breezy conditions. Additional 1 to 2 inches may be possible north of Highway 60 with the highest amounts closer to the Highway 54 corridor.
Tonight Through Monday A large deep trough continues over the eastern half of the country this afternoon.
336 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018 We're off to a cold start this morning with high pressure across the region and northerly winds providing cold advection. A warmer day is expected on Monday with low-level westerlies contributing to warm advection.
A high amplitude ridge/trough pattern had developed over North America with northwest flow aloft over the central High Plains. Even some showery mixed precipitation had developed over northwest Kansas where a slightly warmer boundary layer temperature profile was in place. This will push an Arctic cold front into western Kansas late tonight.
Upper level ridge centered over the Pacific northwest tonight into Sunday with clear to partly cloudy skies. The upper ridge will move east Sunday night as a weather system approaches the coast.
Lows tonight will be in the 11-14 range early and will rise overnight as anticipated as a warm front approaches.
349 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 Arctic high pressure builds in from the northwest today, then tracks east to a position over eastern Canada Monday.
The next major arctic cold front will be due in late Sunday Night.
433 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 High pressure will provide the North Country with mainly clear skies and cool conditions for Sunday into Monday.
115 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 Dry and cool Canadian high pressure will build across the region through Monday.
449 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 High pressure will shift off to the east of the region today. The lowest temperatures tonight will be across eastern portions of the forecast area where there will be less cloud cover early in the evening and also where there is the greater snowpack.
For tonight, high pressure will begin to build in from the northwest. For low temps tonight, went a bit under guidance, especially west of I-65 closer to the high pressure and where there was more snow yesterday. For Sunday night a weak warm front will move north across the region.
With high pressure firmly over the CWA, winds across the area will be light and variable. High temperatures will top out in the lower 20s.
408 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 Arctic high pressure builds over the area today, then moves north tonight into Monday.
1221 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 High pressure will maintain dry but cold weather today.
Comfort will be short-lived as arctic cold front late tonight and Monday morning brings much colder air. Highs Monday expected to remain below freezing across northern half of forecast area, with only far southeastern Texas Panhandle rising above 35 degrees Fahrenheit.
1242 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 High pressure builds into the region tonight and Sunday.
This high will drift across the forecast area tonight, resulting in clear skies and light/calm winds. Light snow will develop from northwest to southeast Sunday afternoon and evening in combination with increasing mid-level warm advection and forcing from a southeastward advancing upper trough. Otherwise, winds will become gusty from the northwest behind the associated cold front later Sunday night into Monday, with the highest winds/gusts west of the Mississippi. Winds at the top of the mixed layer should only be around 30 kts, but at least some blowing/drifting snow could occur in favored open areas/ridge tops.
1131 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018 High pressure over N Texas will bring dry conditions and light winds to the region tonight. /ISSUED 338 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018/ Quiet and cool weather this weekend will gradually warm to the upper 50s to mid 60s by Monday as high pressure slides east and onshore flow returns. Low temperatures tonight are forecast to dip below freezing across most of the inland areas, but a hard freeze is not anticipated.
Highs will be in the low to mid 50s for most locations.
The next system arrives with scattered snow showers for midweek, along with warmer temperatures. High pressure will be over the area on Sunday for dry weather and a good deal of sunshine. Monday night, a large upper level closed low will shift southeastward over the Great Lakes.
Subjective 00Z upper-air analysis indicates broad upper-level trough centered on the upper Midwest, with a 100-120kt upper-level jet streak diving from western Canada toward the northern Rockies behind it. An 850mb low was centered near the SK-AB border, with thermal trough across the upper Midwest to central Plains and mid-MS river valley. Southerly 850mb winds were providing warm air advection, though, as above-0C temperatures from the High Plains to the Rockies were advecting into the central Plains. While warm air advection will provide some boost to temperatures today, its effects will be short-lived as a cold front moves through this evening/tonight.
Rain chances will continue today under the influence of a low amplitude, broad mid lvl trof and weak overrunning.
937 AM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017 Cold rain showers continue to spread east-northeast across the area north of a surface warm front. Highs still look good to reach the 50s and even the low/mid 60s in southern KY. Expect a steady cold rain for the rest of the day with temps on the rise as a warm front lifts north through the region. In the warmer airmass, highs will rebound into the upper 60s/lower 70s.
540 AM MDT Wed Nov 1 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over northeast MT, with cold front extending south-southwest across eastern to southern MT. Webcams show some accumulation across the higher elevations, generally an inch or two from the Sundance area to the higher Black Hills. Any additional accumulations across the higher elevations should be on the light side, less than an inch. Cold front to the northwest will slide through during the morning and midday hours. High temps will range from the lower 40s over northeast WY and the Black Hills to the mid to upper 50s over far southern SD. The highest amounts at this time look to be from the Wright and Newcastle areas to the southern Black Hills and higher elevations of Fall River Co.
/issued 350 AM CDT Wed Nov 1 2017/ (Today and Tonight) Expect much warmer temperatures and gusty winds this afternoon. Highs across West Central Texas will be in the lower to mid 80s. Overnight lows will be warmer too, with lows 55 to 60.
519 AM MDT Wed Nov 1 2017 12Z TAF CYCLE Surface lee trough and strong northwest flow at mt top levels through 02/00Z with potential for mt waves over nrn NM.
Warmer temperatures on the way for later in the week and especially into the weekend.
Precipitation expected to be fairly light, and mainly be snow this morning, with the lower levels warming enough in the WAA pattern for any precip to changeover to rain this afternoon. As the upper wave quickly shoves east, a lobe of low pressure will push east as well with an associated cold front dropping into the state by late tonight. Temperatures will be warmer today with the push of warmer air into the state, with highs topping out in the 40s north to around 50 south. Could see some breezy conditions today with the southerly flow and tightening sfc pres gradient ahead of the area of low pressure to the west/northwest.
Depending on how long the cloud cover remains will affect the high temps for today, but can expected highs in the mid 80s this afternoon. Otherwise with the zonal flow aloft, quiet weather with warmer temps and muggy conditions can be expected for Thursday.
Chances for precipitation will taper off through the night, as the low scoots eastward into Minnesota.
This has stabilized temperatures in all areas, and even has brought some rises as the low level flow shifted to the south after Midnight. Today, might at first value appear warmer than the past few days, but alas, the wind chill will probably be just as cold. This later afternoon arrival of the lower level moisture should keep our morning hours completely dry, cool, and increasingly brisk. Combine that wind with temperatures in the lower to mid 40s and wind chills are expected to remain in the mid 30s for much of the day.
Low pressure was moving into the western Dakotas, and widespread WAA/isentropic lift was developing ahead of it. Saturation is expected to occur in our western counties in the early afternoon, and in the mid to late afternoon in the east, as a 35-40 kt low-level jet develops and an 850 mb warm front lifts toward the region. Precipitation will taper off as the 850 mb warm front shifts north after midnight and mid-level drying arrives. Some patchy drizzle is possible late, and if temperatures drop off another degree or two, spotty freezing drizzle may occur in north central WI. If temperatures end up a degree or two cooler than forecast, more snow would occur in these areas, and an advisory could be needed.
Flow aloft will be from the west-northwest behind the departing upper trough, with high pressure building into the Northern Plains. Even with high pressure there is consensus on clouds continuing across the area for much of the day.
751 AM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area through the rest of the week. High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the northeast through tonight. The flow aloft will be southwest associated with the broad troughing over much of the nation. Expect low temperatures in the lower and middle 50s as given by the guidance consensus.
A cold front will drop slowly south into the region today; the main impacts will be increasing cloud cover across the region, a slight chance of rain and snow over the Idaho Central Mountains, and windy afternoon conditions across the Snake River Plain and to its south, especially across the western Magic Valley. Mid/high level clouds increasing from the north today, with scattered MVFR showers developing after 18Z in the West Central Mountains of Idaho and in the higher terrain around KBKE. Increasing clouds and a little cooler in the north as a cold front with light rain and snow approach that area from the north this afternoon. Mostly sunny, windy, and warmer in the south. Thursday also should be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today in all areas, and not as windy in the south as today.
Model sounds indicate that the low levels are rather dry and expect any precipitation that does fall will be light. Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 54 72 60 / 20 30 30 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 52 71 57 / 0 30 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 65 52 70 58 / 20 30 30 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 47 71 52 / 10 30 20 10.
Given recent trends we did shave pops just a bit more for today with the highest residing over the open Gulf waters. If clouds erode quicker than anticipated, our temps may be a bit on the low side. Whatever coastal troughing is left will begin to lose its grip on the area.
/Issued 735 AM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017/ Surface analysis shows an old front/low pressure trough across south central TN this morning. High pressure is moving off the SE coast of the US.
However after today temperatures will be a bit warmer than the last few days, averaging near to above normal.
The average date the low temperature falls below 60 degrees in Key West is December 9th.
1059 AM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017 Rain is expected today and tonight with a warm front.
A back door cold front will make its way southwest across the Panhandles before stalling about half way through the TX Panhandle.
A warm front extends across northern Louisiana through north Mississippi and into north Georgia. Temperatures will be warmer than yesterday with highs in the mid to upper 60s. By tonight, the warm front will remain north of the region but there will still plenty of moisture around to produce scattered showers. Temperatures will remain quite mild for early November with lows Thursday morning in the lower 60s. By Thursday night, a cold front will start to approach the region from the north bringing a better chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm.
The main difference from the previous forecast package is maximum temperatures remaining mainly in the low 70s across central Louisiana. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms can be expected today associated with a weak area of low pressure advancing east across the region. Isolated rain chances to continue through the rest of the week before ending over the weekend as ridging aloft becomes established.
Start of a cooler and wetter pattern today as onshore winds bring marine clouds with some light drizzle this morning. A cool low pressure system drops into the Pacific Northwest from Canada tonight with periods of rain and Cascade snow above 3500-4000 feet Thursday.
/Issued 321 AM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017/ Surface analysis shows an old front/low pressure trough across south central TN this morning. High pressure is moving off the SE coast of the US.
Latest MAV/MET guidance solidly supports the high wind warning across the Snake Plain, made minor adjustment to wind speeds there. Pockets of blowing dust are anticipated along I-15 and adjacent Highways today with the lowest visibility in the Roberts area north of I-15.
Could see temperatures a little warmer than currently forecast, especially west of I-135.
The first day of November will provide for a great day to get outdoors with warmer temperatures, mostly clear skies, and tolerable wind speeds. Raised the temperatures a few degrees this afternoon as warm air advection will cause temperatures near Elkhart to possibly reach into the lower 80s. Overnight, a dry cold front moves through the region, but lows will stay above freezing. Thursday will be cooler post-frontal passage.
With warmer temps arriving, expect the snow ratios to be low. With thickening cloud cover, and precip overnight, expect temps to hold in the low 30s with slightly warmer temps closer to the lakes. Models suggest that a slowly progressive pattern will prevail as a trough digs into the wrn CONUS with wsw flow into the Great Lakes by this weekend.
1248 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017 High pressure over the region today will move east tonight.
The upper level ridge offshore will weaken today into the weekend and an upper trough will dig along the west coast. The first short wave associated with this trough will drop into the area Wednesday night into Thursday, but it will be weak. Thursday highs will be about 10 degrees cooler than today, but the bulk of the precipitation will likely be confined to the coast, Coastal Range, Umpqua Basin, and Cascades. However, the trough will keep on digging and heavier precipitation will follow.
A mid level disturbance and associated a warm front will lift northward through the region today, with the surface boundary exiting our area by late this afternoon to early evening. Temperatures have responded well to decent WAA, rising well above the freezing mark.
/issued 313 AM CDT Wed Nov 1 2017/ High pressure near New York City early this morning. Low pressure over the Canadian Rockies has a trough extending down the lee side of the US Rockies into west Texas.
1014 AM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017 High pressure over the region today will move east tonight.
Lee trough should deepen and transition eastward in response, with WAA through the afternoon. A cold front should eventually move through the region this evening, however ahead of this we may see near record or record high temps across our west.
Temperatures to remain fairly uniform with highs in the lowers 80s and lows in the mid 60s through the weekend.
With the broad upper level trough rotating south through the Pacific Northwest, the jet is also compacting the 700mb baroclinic zone in a west to east direction through southern Idaho and into Wyoming.
Forecast model soundings show some additional moistening in the low levels south of the Cape. Some moistening should occur in the low levels this evening and tonight which could produce a few showers mainly south of Sebastian Inlet.
Adjusted POPs accordingly, with weather grids reflecting mainly rain chances for the rest of today as temperatures continue to warm above freezing. A few light returns across the area this morning but generally dry conditions with a weak wave rounding the base of a broad central CONUS trough. Best mid level forcing is mainly to the north and east as the upper trough moves across North Dakota. A inverted ridge moves down out of Canada for Thursday into Thursday night, so temperatures are back below average.