Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
305 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Tight upper ridge ovhd, as seen by isold showers wrapping around center to the south and west of the cwa, and mid lvl cloud decks movg eastward across se OK and central AR around topside of ridge.
355 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 A dry cold front will cross the area on Tuesday, followed by high pressure that will persist over the region through the rest of the week. We will remain in a pleasantly dry airmass with westerly flow inducing lee troffing and a bit of a warmup into the mid and upper 80s.
A rather broad 1026mb high pressure system was located just north of the North Dakota border and has been steadily sliding southeast over the past few hours. Closer to our region, a secondary cold front is crossing parts of central Kentucky at this hour, with winds behind the front generally out of the northwest, while winds ahead of the front have been westerly to southwesterly. This secondary cold front will keep temperatures a bit cooler this afternoon compared to yesterday, setting up another fantastic late June day with very low humidity and refreshing breezes. This will set the stage for weak ridging aloft and a southerly flow regime over the Ohio River Valley, resulting in warming temperatures and increasing humidity.
Otherwise, dry westerly flow with PWs at or below 1 inch and ridge of high pressure across the region producing VFR conditions.
Closer to the coast, surface troffiness continues and is providing a convergent zone for another round of shra/tstms to develop. We should start seeing a bit less overall precip coverage going into the weekend as mid/upper ridging builds back into the area.
410 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 A dry cold front will cross the area on Tuesday, followed by high pressure that will persist over the region through the rest of the week. We will remain in a pleasantly dry airmass with westerly flow inducing lee troffing and a bit of a warmup into the mid and upper 80s.
A low pressure system will bring isolated thunderstorms to eastern Nevada today along with breezy conditions. Dry the rest of the week with a little cooler temperatures. Dry and stable on Tuesday with high temperatures 5 to 8 degrees cooler across the north and 3 to 5 degrees cooler across central NV.
400 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 High pressure will build west of the area through Tuesday. A cold front will cross the region Tuesday.
311 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Upper low pressure will maintain cooler temperature and a periodic shower chance for the first half of the week. Another, albeit deeper trough is projected across the Great Lakes this afternoon. Cold troughing will persist through Tuesday but changes are projected to ensue thereafter with moderating temperatures as flow aloft flattens/ridges in response to a trough digging across Western Canada.
306 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 A cold front will cross the area tonight. bringing cooler and drier weather through midweek.
634 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 A cold front will cross the area tonight. bringing cooler and drier weather through midweek.
upper level ridge and a flatter ridge across the eastern Gulf and Florida. Fairly deep moisture rolling across the now summer-warm Gulf (sea surface temperatures in the mid 80s) in low level easterly flow is setting off late night scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms over the Gulf, and typically some of these survive moving over the slightly cooler land, with Brownsville and perhaps Harlingen/Valley seeing some of the action before daybreak.
Otherwise, a weak surface front/trough will drop south across the area late this afternoon/evening. Warmer as well with maxs closer to seasonal climo on Tuesday.
Otherwise, skies will be mostly cloudy to cloudy with lows falling into the low 70s. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than normal behind the front, with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s to around 70.
Unseasonably cool conditions will continue today as an upper trough will lingers over the Great Lakes region.
The reason for this confidence is the broad upper level destabilization as the low moves through in addition to being positioned under the left exit region of the upper level jet.
144 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Upper analysis shows a large ridge over the western CONUS, with a 90 kt jet over the northern plains in northwest flow. Another warm and dry day is expected, as the upper ridge shifts over the Rockies. Tuesday will be hot, with highs around 90, as the thermal ridge shifts over the area. The upper ridge will break down Tuesday as a wave pushes into the region, and convection will initiate across western SD during the afternoon. The trough will quickly push into the eastern Dakotas, and most of the activity will also shift east into central SD by early evening. However, some additional storms will possible across western SD with the cold front later Tuesday evening.
400 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Minimal weather impacts today as a cool Canadian high pressure brings light winds and a dry airmass to the northern plains. Breezy south winds will develop Tuesday with boundary layer responding to broad area of low pressure across the western Dakotas. These south winds will bring a warmer airmass to the area and combined with full solar highs will be in the 80s across portions of eastern ND and upper 70s elsewhere.
Tuesday will be dry with slightly warmer temperatures.
Broad upper troughing will be in place through the taf period.
340 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017 One more day of very warm temperatures is forecast for today as the high pressure ridge axis shifts eastward and breaks down into an active southwest flow. As the pattern transitions into a more west-northwesterly flow aloft, winds will become breezier and temperatures will be noticeably cooler for Tuesday compared to Monday.
318 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 High pressure crosses this evening. A cold front crosses Tuesday morning.
However there is still a weak upper level trough that is expected to move across West Texas later today that could provide enough instability to cause more storms to form this afternoon. If you want rainfall, you better get it in the next 24 hours because after that rain chances greatly diminish as high pressure over northern Mexico and the southwestern U.
558 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Drier air and slightly cooler temperatures will begin spreading across the area today as high pressure edges in from the west. An upper disturbance will bring a few showers late on Tuesday followed by a reinforcement of cooler and drier air through mid week. A long awaited cold front is situated northeast to southwest from just south of Wilmington to just north of Kingstree South Carolina. I opted for the slightly warmer MET numbers for daytime highs in the middle to upper 80s.
Lows will be in the low 60s for most locations, with some areas falling into the upper 50s. /27/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Monday: The next 24hrs will be rather quiet and on the cooler side for late June standards. This will work in tandem with the cooler/drier air filtering through the forecast area behind the cool front.
These stratus ceilings will continue to lower overnight into Monday morning, in response to gentle moist upslope winds interacting with the higher terrain. Temperatures will be several degrees warmer today, but still well below normal, in the lower 80s. Leftover cloud cover and a moist boundary layer will keep temperatures elevated, remaining in the lower 60s Tuesday morning. Windy and warmer. Noticeably warmer, back to normal, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Aloft, a mid to upper level ridge axis/700-500mb, will crest the western border shortly after 00z Tuesday. A brief/significant warmup into the lower 90s southwest and south central ND Tuesday, followed by isolated severe thunderstorms central ND Tuesday evening/night.
Mid/upper level high pressure currently across Mex and centered over Baja CA, is progged to shift farther west today. The best low level convergence will be along the coast during the late night and morning hours due to a weak coastal trough.
High pressure to temporarily build south into our region tonight with dry conditions expected through much of Tuesday and Tuesday night. Southerly winds will begin to become re-established later in the day on Tuesday as high pressure begins sliding off to our east and pressure falls occur across the central and northern High Plains. As a result, Tuesday's highs will be a few degrees warmer than today's, with highs topping out in the lower 80s.
Lows mostly in the lower 50s overnight, with a few upper 40s by Knox and Stark counties. 1025 mb Canadian high pressure over southern Saskatchewan and ridging into the MO valley will remain in place through the night providing another fair and cool night to central/southeast IL. The relatively cool and dry conditions will continue into Monday, as the broad longwave trough slowly edges eastward across the Midwest. ridge flattens into a zonal flow. One more cooler/dry day on tap for Tuesday until the warmer air spreads eastward, with more typical temperatures and dew points for this time of year. Second half of the weak will feature more of an active pattern, as periodic waves traverse the country from west to east, while a more substantial upper trough/closed low takes shape over the Upper Midwest.
High temperatures today in the low 80s. Models continue to advertise an upper trough axis to move into far eastern Colorado in the 3PM MDT to 6 PM MDT timeframe with showers and thunderstorms possible. The trough axis continues east through midnight and should be out of the area by if not before sunrise. 850mb temperatures from the past 5 days support high temperatures in the low to upper 90s while nearly all other guidance is several degrees cooler.
These stratus ceilings will continue to lower overnight into Monday morning, in response to gentle moist upslope winds interacting with the higher terrain. Temperatures will be several degrees warmer today, but still well below normal, in the lower 80s. Leftover cloud cover and a moist boundary layer will keep temperatures elevated, remaining in the lower 60s Tuesday morning. The cool period of the weekend and early part of the workweek will come to an end as a broad upper ridge followed by zonal upper flow and southwest downslope boundary layer air.
136 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 A cold front will cross the area Monday afternoon and night. bringing cooler and drier weather through midweek.
300 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Another cool surface area of high pressure will slide south southeast today out of the Dakotas and into Iowa by tonight. This will again be the case today in what will be yet another cooler than normal late June day with isolated showers and weak thunderstorms around the area. MLCAPE values could climb to around 1000 J/KG along I-80 around noon with this higher instability axis slipping south into Kansas by late afternoon.
Expect coverage of showers to increase over the next few hours with the highest chances of thunderstorms at VLD and TLH this afternoon.
High pressure remains in control bringing another sunny and warm day to eastern Utah and western Colorado. On Tuesday, the trough mentioned above will move over the CWA. As the trough moves through, soundings indicate good mixing to 500mb, if not higher, where winds of 25 to 35 kts can be found.
Meanwhile a second front will drop toward the area before sliding east and washing out during the day as high pressure builds into the area.
A dry air mass is in place locally under a large scale eastern CONUS trough.
For 12z Aviation discussion below Today marks the last day with area weather influenced by cyclonic flow on the periphery of the mid/upper trough dominating the eastern half of the CONUS, although the effects will be less notable than they were over the weekend. At the surface, high pressure will be sliding into MN from the Dakotas. This will make for much lighter winds than experienced the last couple of days, with speeds generally around 10 kts or less (with west central WI on the higher end of the range).
Hard to tie showers over southern Oklahoma to anything other than lingering mid-level moist layer, with activity over southern Kansas into far northern Oklahoma an extension of passing wave/speed max moving around Great Lakes upper low.
/issued 959 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017/ High pressure over E AR is sprawling over the entire area with calm winds dropping temps early in LA and still light E winds down I-20 into E TX with low to mid 70s. Overall cooler than average low to mid 60s overnight with no changes to going forecast.
However the return of the warmer air will also result in showers and thunderstorms with a risk of some stronger storms and locally heavy rain. The last in a series of vorticity maxima/upper lows in the anomalous northwest flow pattern arrives this afternoon. Freezing levels drop to 6500-7000 ft this afternoon.
304 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 A cold front will cross the area tonight. bringing cooler and drier weather through midweek.
Temps this afternoon have been slightly warmer than yesterday with the higher temps in the west today and cooler on the eastern side of the CWA due to clouds hanging on longer there. Tuesday looks to see a warm up as winds turn more southwesterly in the low levels and allow for downsloping winds. As the upper level ridge moves across the central Plains, this will be the last day for northwest flow aloft and thus the final day for storm chances to come in from the mountains. Mid week will see zonal flow aloft as a trough tries to move south from Canada. This will lead to even more downsloping and warmer temps. The end of the week will see a return of high pressure building up in the desert southwest.
Over the next several days, our dominant high pressure system will weaken and shift south to southwest of the area, with a modest westerly flow kicking in.
The base of a large upper trough over the the central and eastern conus will remain over the region, with primarily zonal flow aloft. Low temperatures tonight will be in the low to mid 60s inland areas, with upper 60s to lower 70s along the coast.
Temperatures tomorrow will be warmer, but still below seasonal normals, with increased cloud cover and rain showers.
Any fog should quickly burn off after sunrise as light northeast winds and daytime heating mix out the low-level moisture. A cooler and drier airmass will continue to settle across the region in the wake of the last "cold" front. Temperatures have dropped into the low 60s early this morning, with even a 59 degree reading seen already at Starkville. /NF/ Tuesday into the weekend: Our region will start out the period a little cooler and drier than average with a somewhat diffuse front stalled near southern zones.
446 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Recent water vapor imagery and upper air analysis show a vort max moving over the western Great Lakes, embedded within a deeper trough that covers much of the eastern CONUS.
324 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 A long wave trough over the the Great Lakes and eastern Canada will deepen across the region today into Tuesday.
Today Through Tuesday Night Upper troughing over the eastern half of the United States will continue today, but will begin to shift east on Tuesday allowing weak ridging to build in over Arkansas.
Warmer and more humid air will make a return as the week progresses.
This high pressure will remain over the region today and be the main influence on our pleasant conditions.
1225 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017 For tonight, a warm front at 850 mb will lift northeast in conjunction with a weak disturbance in northwest flow aloft. Lows tonight remain very near previous forecast form the upper 40s northwest to the lower 50s southeast. On Monday, a broad trough will extend across the Great Lakes Region and Midwest with upper ridging moving east into the Great Basin. A weak backdoor cool front will bring an east to northeast wind, limiting any warmup in the east to the mid and upper 70s, while parts of the southwest reach the lower 80s. The upper ridge flattens out to near zonal Tuesday as a closed low in Alberta Canada and upper trough in the Pacific Northwest moves east. Good moisture return with dewpoints rising into the lower 60s central and east.
A strong upper trough over the great lakes will produce cooler than normal weather next few days as it moves slowly to the east. high pressure will dominate our weather as it moves east across the Ohio valley. Warmer and more humid weather will occur after midweek.
The upper ridge will continue to buckle with the ridge axis shifting east. A more pronounced short wave aloft rotating around the upper ridge will dive down east-southeast tonight promoting increased overnight convection. An upper level low in southwestern Canada will continue to flatten the ridge. The upper low over southwest Canada will move into the Northern Plains and upper Midwest by late week sending a cold front down close to the region.
An upper level ridge axis crosses the Divide today to begin to nudge the stationary boundary east. The resulting height increase will result in warmer temperatures for today and Tuesday. Since the cold front moves through Northeast Montana prior to peak heating, the rain showers and thbunderstorms are not expect to become severe, at least until they move into North Dakota in late afternoon.
343 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 The chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue today, with cooler than normal temperatures.
330 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Latest water vapor imagery shows high pressure over the Florida region this morning with broad trough gradually digging south over the central portion of the CONUS. Short range models show trough deepening southward today weakening high pressure across South FL and pushing associated cold front southeast into the FL panhandle. As high pressure weakens, southeast flow remains moderate today remaining around 10 to 15 mph.
332 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017 A weak cold front is moving across the Midsouth. Temperatures this morning will range from the upper 50s to upper 60s with afternoon highs in the low to middle 80s. Latest guidance continues to trend warmer after midweek.
325 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 A dry air mass is in place locally under a large scale eastern CONUS trough.
Look for continued cooling inland through Monday as the ridge of high pressure that had been overhead continues to progress to the east.
319 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 The chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue today, with cooler than normal temperatures.
645 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 The chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue today, with cooler than normal temperatures.
However, another round of showers and tstms is fcst to develop over the higher terrain of sern CO and ern NM this afternoon, then spread southeast into the OK and TX Panhandles late this afternoon and evening before diminishing late tonight.
Otherwise a dry night with temperatures slightly warmer than last night due to airmass modification. Ridging aloft along with a relatively stable low level will preclude mention of showers or thunderstorms. As the ridge aloft moves overhead, temperatures will be even warmer than the previous night. Shower and thunderstorm chances decrease quickly in the evening, in the wake of the cold front and some drying in the low levels.
501 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Temperatures are currently in the low 80s across the Florida Keys, and dew points are in the upper 70s. A weak trough lingers across Central Florida, but the western flank of the Bermuda high remains in control of our local weather. High pressure stationed across the Atlantic will keep winds predominantly out of the east.
By late afternoon and through tonight, the ridge will be shifting east. Showers and thunderstorms will develop across far western locales by late afternoon and shift east along with a cold front. Today still looks to be quite hot, with several areas pushing toward the low/mid 90s.
Have gone on warmer side of guidance for temperatures given yesterdays highs and sunshine expected this morning. Sieveking Upper level ridge to build in on Tuesday, so will see one more dry and cooler day before going back to more summer like conditions for the rest of the forecast period.
653 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Unseasonably cool conditions will continue today as an upper trough will lingers over the Great Lakes region.
330 AM PDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Cooler, but still remaining close to average into the weekend. Week upper troughing along with continuing onshore flow will spread cooling further inland today with daytime highs forecast to come in close to average for late-June. Fair skies and a bit more cooling expected on Tuesday as weak upper troughing lingers along the west coast. Upper ridge begins to rebuild by mid-week bringing the beginning of a warming trend.
259 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 A long wave trough over the the Great Lakes and eastern Canada will deepen across the region today into Tuesday.
A weak impulse moving around the upper trough into the TN Valley could bring a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms to the northern counties on Tuesday.
Low to mid level lapse rates are poorer than today and with cooler boundary layer temperatures per 925-850 mb progs updraft strength in convective cores will not be as robust.
Made only minor tweaks to the temperature grids keeping temps in the lower to mid 90s as breaks in the activity have allowed temps to warm in between showers.
333 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Northwesterly flow aloft continues with high pressure building into the center of the country. The trough aloft over the eastern half of the country deepens briefly before moving off to the east.
342 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Today marks the last day with area weather influenced by cyclonic flow on the periphery of the mid/upper trough dominating the eastern half of the CONUS, although the effects will be less notable than they were over the weekend. At the surface, high pressure will be sliding into MN from the Dakotas. This will make for much lighter winds than experienced the last couple of days, with speeds generally around 10 kts or less (with west central WI on the higher end of the range).
249 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Quiet weather continues today as a stable airmass remains in place underneath ridging aloft. Temps will be a bit warmer than yesterday and winds should be generally light. At the surface, a deepening lee trough will take shape over our panhandle counties on Tuesday in response to height falls aloft. Pacific cold front will pass across the area Tuesday evening and breezy to windy conditions may last into the evening hours immediately behind the front as the surface gradients remain tight.
The higher dwpts extended back west into the valleys as 40s and 50s were noted in the SLV and Upper Ark Rvr Valley. Convection will initially be concentrated over the higher terrain today.
broad high pressure remains in place across the western Atlantic tonight with generally moderate southeasterly flow and a few lingering showers or thunderstorms during the evening hours. Models show a developing trough over the central U. An associated cold front boundary will push southeastward into northern FL, which in turn begins eroding the aforementioned high across the region.
the upper level ridge over the area is forecast to shift eastward with zonal westerly flow moving into the Rockies Tuesday evening. In addition, the low levels indicate a dryline will develop across the Eastern Plains, generally east of an Eads to Kim line.
1116 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017 High pressure still on track to amplify and center itself over the Four Corners through Monday due to a trough moving onshore the Pacific Northwest. By Monday night, high pressure begins to break down at lower levels. High pressure will also flatten at upper levels (500mb and higher) as energy moves in from the west on Tuesday morning. 500mb vorticity fields indicating a wave passing west to east through the UT/CO border Tuesday morning which correlates to the highest winds aloft.
625 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 High pressure crosses this evening. A cold front crosses Tuesday morning.