Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1031 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 CURRENTLY - A ~1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CELL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS. A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - THE TROUGH ALOFT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THESE FACTORS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER OR NEAR THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE KEYS REMAIN NEAR AND EAST OF THE TROUGH ALOFT. AND CONTINUED MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A NEARBY TROUGH ALOFT.
904 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH STRETCHED FROM THE BAHAMAS NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMAS. DEWPOINTS ARE STILL ONLY IN THE LOW 60S. BUT THERE IS STILL DRY AIR IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS THAT NEEDS TO GET MIXED OUT. KEPT VCSH IN FOR TONIGHT THEN PROB30 OF MVFR +TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHWARD MOVING TROUGH TUE. /ISSUED 250 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015/ LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF FLORIDA WILL BRING SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL EARLY THIS WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL GO DOWN AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
/ISSUED 729 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A LOW TO THE WEST OF BIG BEND SHOULD MAINTAIN THE ESE-SE FLOW OVERNIGHT.
701 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
THEN ANOTHER PROBABLY MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SMALL HAIL AS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES.
1036 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 WEAK INVERTED TROF/ELY WAVE CONTINUES ITS TREK WEST. ISLTD SHRA/TSRA AND BKN VFR CIGS ACCOMPANY A WEAK INVERTED TROF CROSSING SRN LA AND THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. /ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/ NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED INVERTED SFC TROF. PATTERN THEREAFTER MARKED BY A SW TO NE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD. WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SUBTLE IMPULSES EJECTING AHEAD OF A DIGGING WRN CONUS TROF. THE TROF IS PROGGED TO EDGE EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. SLOWLY ERODING THE RIDGE ALOFT.
High temperatures will stay close to normal through the week while lows will be somewhat warmer than normal due to higher low level moisture content.
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE EARLY WED AM AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OK IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LOW HAS DRAWN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. BUT SOME WILL LINGER ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH WHICH IS CURRENTLY SEEING AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME FORCING NEAR THE CLOSED LOW. MOISTURE WILL LINGER TOMORROW EVEN AS THE LOW EXITS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 56 83 57 83 / 0 0 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 55 81 58 82 / 0 0 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 55 82 58 82 / 0 0 0 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 50 80 54 80 / 0 10 10 10.
635 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH EARLY TUESDAY.
GUST OF 40 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BY SUNRISE AS LEE SIDE TROF DIGGS SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FROM LIVINGSTON TO NYE. OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER WITH MORE CLOUD COVER.
DECREASING CLOUDS WERE ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPS WERE FALLING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION. PATCHY FOG WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE VALLEYS AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND CENTRAL OREGON AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LIKELY FOR TOMORROW.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WITH A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER 22Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AFTER 3PM WITH THE MOISTURE BEING LIMITED TO RIGHT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE HANGING AROUND FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
Strong Gusty southerly winds had all but moved the area of high pressure that was over the region this morning, to the east of the area. Winds were gusting at times from 30 to 40mph and will continue into this afternoon and early evening in advance of a cold front that will move through the region late this evening. The gusty southerly winds in advance of the front will quickly be replaced by gusty northerly winds in the wake of the cold front.
HIGHS AREN/T EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
The strong cold front was located from just south of Lubbock to Vernon at 1125 PM, and the timing with the cold frontal passage looks on track. Another cold front will push south across West Central Texas later tonight. The cold front is still expected to move into the Big Country right around midnight tonight.
238 AM CST THE EXTENDED BEGINS QUIETLY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.
235 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2015 The initial wind shift associated with a strong cold front passed through the Springfield area shorty after 2 AM this morning. As high pressure begins to influence the area, winds will decrease, with light and variable conditions expected overnight. A bit of passing high cloud cover may keep readings just a hair warmer over central Missouri, with lows in the mid 20s.
455 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING.
Gusty north winds will continue to decrease today as an area of high pressure at the surface crosses western Kansas. Highs this afternoon will average around 20 degrees cooler compared to the highs on Friday.
123 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY MOVE OVER AND THEN EAST OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AS A FAST WAVE AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE HIGHLIGHTS GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. MAINLY WITH THE UPSLOPE ALONG THE PINE RIDGE. WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING FOR THE PINE RIDGE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. COULD SEE SUB-ZERO READINGS IN THE HIGH VALLEYS SUCH AS LARAMIE.
1234 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2015 UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LIGHT SNOW BAND THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOWER ARKANSAS. IT IS PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS AT THIS TIME.
303 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TODAY.
WINDS INCREASE AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS APPROACHING THE LAKE ERIE AREA.
BEST MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE AT BPT WHERE SHOWERS MOVE IN AROUND DAYBREAK WITH LIFR CIGS BECMG IFR. LFT/ARA EXPECTING TO MAINTAIN VFR WITH STRATOCU CIGS AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. /ISSUED / A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY.
304 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2015 UPPER TROUGH CARVED OUT DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL U. WILL WORK EAST DURING THE DAY AND WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS.
305 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2015 A MUCH QUIETER DAY IN STORE AS SURFACE RIDGING SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE. STAYED ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO AFTERNOON HIGHS. TO UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR WHERE LITTLE SNOW FELL. THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA. LOOKING AT MID/UPPER TEENS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR TO JUST EITHER SIDE OF 10 DEGREES TO THE SOUTH OF THAT AREA.
339 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2015 MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF RAIN TODAY WITH THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ALSO ELEVATED WINDS WILL BE SEEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND WILL REACH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER ALL OF AR. THE COLD FRONT WAS OVER EASTERN OK AND TO THE NE TO CENTRAL MO. AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WAS OVER THE CENTRAL U.
1232 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO THE EAST TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 40S UNDER CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FA. SGF WSR-88D RADAR INDICATES A WELL DEFINED LINE OF LOW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI ALONG AN ANALYZED WARM FRONT. 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN KANSAS. WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST TO CENTRAL MISSOURI AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN KANSAS.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR BEHIND YESTERDAY'S SYSTEM HAS LEAD TO THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY. LITTLE MIXING DUE TO STABLE CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN A COOL DAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
354 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DRIER WEATHER OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
1039 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2015 STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONT WHILE IT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. /ISSUED 635 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2015/ STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONT WHILE IT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO FREEZING.
Strong cold front currently entering ne OK will push through the area between 10 and 11z. /ISSUED 933 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2015/ The strong cold front is on its way and will be entering northeast Oklahoma over the next couple hours.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH 12Z AT 5- 10 KT BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
1246 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE AREA.
A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM ARDMORE OK TO WICHITA FALLS TO HOBBS NEW MEXICO. A WARM FRONT HAD DEVELOPED NEAR THE COAST AND THIS FEATURE IS FOCUSING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER PARTS OF SE TX. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO SE TX ENDING THE RAIN CHANCES WITH SOME CLEARING OVER THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE COVERING THE KEYS AND IT WILL INCREASE ITS THICKNESS TODAY AND TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT KNOCKS ON OUR DOOR. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE HIGH 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S. A WEAK STATIONARY COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE TODAY.
A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. /ISSUED / A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY.
THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS/CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. AREA REMAINS IN SUBSIDENCE FROM UPPER JET AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
400 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS MORNING AND THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S NORTHWEST AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTHEAST. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. COMPOSITE RADAR/SFC OBS SUGGESTS BULK OF HEAVIER BANDED SNOW IN WAA REGIME AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS REMAINED N-NW OF OUR CWA TONIGHT. EXCEPTION WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE LOW WITH STRONG CAA RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MOST OF THE DAY.
245 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2015 Rain, mixing at times with snow, will taper off across western MO over the next few hours and across central MO through sunrise as a cold front pushes into southern and eastern MO. Clouds will stick around through the morning then rapidly clear from west to east as high pressure quickly builds in from the west. Despite the afternoon sun, cold air advection through the day will keep temperatures in the 30s, with parts of northern MO staying below freezing for the entire day. Low-level ridge axis will pass to our east tonight allowing winds to return from the south after midnight.
WHERE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS TOWARD THE REGION. /ISSUED 537 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2015/ A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY TO BRING IMPROVED SKY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH 22/00Z.
1240 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE OK PANHANDLE WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLES BY 6 PM THIS EVENING.
232 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DRIER WEATHER OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
1225 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2015 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
STILL EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES COAST. /ISSUED 938 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2015/ THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE COMING ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING INTO AFTERNOON IS NOW DIVING DUE SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES THIS EVENING.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE STATE. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. A SURFACE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL.
TONIGHT: COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS PERIOD WITH WINDS FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. MINIMUMS SUN NIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE SLOWER/DEEPER/CLOSED LOW ECMWF AND THE WEAKER/MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS. BOTH MODELS ALLOW COLD AIR TO MOVE DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. -HOWERTON MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS REMAIN THE GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION ALONG A MID-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND MVFR CEILINGS.
354 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2015 The much anticipated, strong cold front has arrived and is currently moving through the I-10 corridor. The High Wind Warning for gap winds at Guadalupe Pass also looks good. By this time a large upper trough will begin to dig to our west.
320 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2015 At 08Z the upper level trough axis extended from northeast Nebraska into south central Kansas. The upper trough axis will move across northeast and east central Kansas by mid morning.
359 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. XPCTG TNGT TO BE WARMER OVERALL THAN THE CURRENT NGT GIVEN THE FIRST HALF OF THE NGT WL BE XPRNCG SRLY FLOW AND XTNSV CLD CVRG WL PRECLUDE RAD COOLING. THAT COUPLED W/ UPSLOPE FLOW MEANS THAT THERE'LL LKLY BE SNSH OVRNGT IN THE HIGHLANDS.
THIS BRINGS SOME LOCATIONS DOWN TO THE MID 30S AND MOST OTHERS IN THE LOWER 40S. WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND WITH A SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THROUGH SAT MORNING WHEN MOISTURE ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT. SCATTERED UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE.
A strong, fast-moving cold front currently moving south through eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle will reach KHOB soon after the start of the forecast period and reach KFST by around 10Z. A cold front currently in northwestern Kansas will drop south overnight arriving in northern Lea County around midnight and quickly moving through the remainder of the CWA by sunrise. High pressure will quickly settle over the area causing winds to become light overnight. A deep upper low will develop in the western U.
307 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY AND BRING MAINLY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS WITH IT.
Once the upper trough fully develops over the Kansas City area around 12Z, the whole system will surge rapidly eastward into and through most of our area through the morning hours, when most locations will see a relatively short period of rainfall. High pressure will continue to move away from the region tonight. Meanwhile low pressure will form over the southern Plains as a mid level system digs ESE from the northern Rockies into the Plains upon strong jet stream energy from west Canada. By 12z Sat, the upper trof will extend south from the Upper Midwest with low pressure near KSTL.
356 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2015 THE 08Z MSL ANALYSIS SHOWED STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA ACROSS WYOMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAD MOVED INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND THE LAST FRONT WAS IN NORTH TEXAS TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWEST DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
1247 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.
WARMER WITH WET WEATHER RETURNING BY THANKSGIVING. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER PATTERN WL PULSE UP A BIT MORE AS SHRTWV ROTATES THROUGH LNGWV TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WITH SHARPENING RIDGE BUILDING TOWARD THE WEST COAST. AND STG TROFFING DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
331 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SPAWN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.
At 00z Saturday a 500mb trough extended from Wyoming to North Dakota with 50 to 90 meter 12 hour height falls observed across Nebraska and Kansas. A 700mb baroclinic zone was located ahead of this upper level trough and stretched from eastern Colorado to northeast Kansas. and surface and 850mb cold front was located from just south of Amarillo to near Kansas City with +45 knot 850mb winds and a tight temperature gradient was observed just north of this front. A strong cold front is currently pushing south across west central Kansas this afternoon, passing through Scott City and Tribune in the last hour.
1138 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2015 THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE TERMINALS WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. /ISSUED 320 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2015/ SHARP COLD FRONT AT 21Z HAD ALREADY DESCENDED THE PALMER DIVIDE IN EASTERN CO AND REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A MID EVENING ARRIVAL IN THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE.
IT IS PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS AT THIS TIME.
LOOK FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR DURING THE DAY, AND HAVE MAD SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HRLY TEMP GRIDS FOR SATURDAY TO REFLECT FALLING TEMPS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A QUIET EVENING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. LOOK FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT.
OVER THE PLAINS, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN RISE SOME OVERNIGHT AS HAS ALREADY OCCURRED IN SOME AREAS DUE TO STEADY W/SW WINDS DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THE LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURE AND INCREASING GRADIENT ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
THE WARNING FOR THE PARK RANGE WITH ADVISORIES OVER ZONES 10 AND 13 AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF ZONE 4 ARE EXPECTED TO END BY 6 PM. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON WITH SOME SUBZERO READINGS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
At the time of this writing precipitation just now moving into the northwestern and western sections of our CWA will continue to spread eastward across the area with the approach and passage of a fast moving cold front. Beyond today, high pressure at the surface and rising heights aloft will keep the region dry with below normal temperatures through the short term period. In fact, this area of high pressure will usher in the coldest air of the season thus far.
106 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
333 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2015 DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS HANGING ON EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IS NOW RACING ACROSS MISSOURI AND WILL PLOW THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY. THIS DRY AIR WILL BE A CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS AS SURFACE WINDS PICK UP AND BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
/ISSUED 250 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015/ An upper level high continues to sit over central Texas bringing hot and dry conditions to most of the area. The exception is the higher elevations west of the Pecos River where showers and thunderstorms are already developing this afternoon.
TODAY SHOULD BE EVEN COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. AND THEN ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT. ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN ACTIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN TO SET UP AS SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS WITH PWATS INCREASING FROM AROUND 1.
352 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING PRECEDED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT LATER TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.
WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over NE Texas, and kept to the east by a closed trough off the coast of CA. Meanwhile, the local theta-e ridge continues drifting east off the higher terrain, w/yesterday's convection developing further east than the day before.
THE STORM THREAT WILL COME TO AN END BY TUESDAY MORNING AND A WELCOME DRY RESPITE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WILL CONCENTRATE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY NEARER THE FRONTAL ZONE AND REMNANT OUTFLOW FROM CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BACK INTO EASTERN KANSAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. N/NE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN COOLER TEMPS OVER THE REGION TO START AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
356 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015 JULY'S MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A LARGE PART OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS DRY THIS WEEK.
THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AREA WIDE. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST. AVERAGE POSITION OF THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BEING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE GREAT PLAINS RIDGE. IN THE LOWER 80S ARE FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS WEEK FOR E IOWA/W ILLINOIS.
124 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 1930Z. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FCST GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SYSTEMS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT.