Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
At the surface a strong cold front is making its way across the Plains and currently stretches from near KTOP to near KICT and into the OK Panhandle. There is a prefrontal trough that extends east of the KS Turnpike. Confidence is low on if we will see surface convection develop on the prefrontal trough over southeast KS as current vis satellite doesn't look that encouraging with capping still an issue. Upper flow will start to flatten out for Wed as an upper impulse digs over the Pacific Northwest and tracks across the Northern Plains on Thu which may try and push a cold front near the forecast area for Fri into Sat.
This begins to change by late evening as a cold front currently extending from the Great Lakes into the Mid Mississippi Valley will make its way southeastward into the Tennessee Valley.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue this morning behind the passage of a cold front. Behind the front, much needed relief from the heat can be expected as a cooler airmass moves in. An upper level trough situated over Canada and the northern CONUS has flattened the ridging pattern, allowing for a cold front to push through the majority of the area late last night into the early morning hours. Beginning today, the area will receive much needed relief from the heat, as a cooler, drier airmass moves in.
452 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2022 Another surge of cooler moist air is moving southward across the CWA at this time. The low level winds are southeasterly for the plains with a Denver Cyclone progged most of the day and evening. Afternoon high temperatures look a tad cooler today than yesterday's readings. Monday, a warming trend begins as the ridge builds and advances. Models show good lapse rates up to 8 to 9 C/km over and around the high terrain in the afternoon and around 1000 J/kg of CAPE in areas. There will be scattered to widespread showers and storms favoring the high country, especially the southern Front Range and Park County.
626 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022 (Today and Tonight) The much anticipated cold front has made it into the region early this morning, currently sitting near the I-44 corridor. The main surge of cooler, drier air will lag a bit behind the wind shift. Unfortunately, it will still be another hot and muggy day south of I-40 with highs still in the low 90s to mid 90s near the Red River this afternoon. The mid level ridge that has been firmly in place over the area much of the last week is beginning to flatten and shift southward which will allow more scattered storm development over NE OK this morning. Chances appear low and isolated in this region with the mid and upper ridge still nearby.
The upper air pattern involves high pressure over the south central United States and a ridge building over the western states, causing northwesterly flow aloft over Nebraska. Temperatures should be cooler today compared to yesterday with highs in the 70s. This, combined with sunny skies due to drying air aloft, should allow the highs to rise into the 80s. The pressure gradient will tighten between high pressure in Kansas and low pressure over Wyoming, causing winds to be between 15 and 20 knots in the afternoon. High pressure should keep any possibility for precipitation out of the forecast area as it diverts moisture to the south.
As the westerly winds behind to increase out ahead of an approaching cold front this morning, the fog will begin to dissipate. High pressure will gradually move into the Great Lakes Region tonight. As high pressure moves in the pressure gradient will relax and the winds will weaken. Dry conditions will persist through Monday as the high moves overhead then begins to exit Monday night. High temperatures in the low to mid 70s and overnight lows in the 50s are expected through Monday.
Sunday and Monday Thunderstorms are expected in Central and parts of Eastern Nevada this afternoon and early evening as a weak trough crosses the state. Much warmer conditions are expected tomorrow with highs in the 90s to 100 degree range in northern and central Nevada. A weak trough will move through Idaho causing increased cloud cover in northern Elko county for the afternoon hours.
416 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022 Some relief from the heat is on its way later this afternoon/evening as a cold front is expected to move through the Mid South.
631 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022 (Today and tonight) An upper trough digging across the U. Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest will continue to push a cold front across the Southern Plains this morning.
519 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2022 A cold front will traverse the area on Monday with high pressure expected to settle in for the middle portion of the week. Increasing low-level moisture combined with strong daytime heating and sfc convergence along a sfc trof is expected to result in numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight.
Most of upper dynamics with the Great Lakes upper trough will be north of the area but a very moist and unstable air mass will be in place. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 71 85 66 82 / 40 50 40 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 70 82 62 84 / 50 60 40 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 91 69 83 61 84 / 60 70 30 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 67 79 55 82 / 50 60 60 10 10.
High pressure will build in today. Temperatures will reach the 90s with the heat index in the lower 100s. High pressure begins to builds in with a prevailing northeast flow that gradually becomes east then southeast during the rest of the week.
/issued 416 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022/ Some relief from the heat is on its way later this afternoon/evening as a cold front is expected to move through the Mid South.
650 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2022 High pressure centered off the Mid Atlantic coast will provide a dry weekend with seasonably warm temperatures.
/issued 311 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022/ The cold front has made it through all of the FA as of 2 AM except for Stonewall county.
637 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022 (Today) The upper ridge that brought us the mostly sunny and hot weather for much of the previous week will flatten and sink further to the southwest today. Meanwhile, a sharp upper-trough pivoting from the Canadian prairies into the Great Lakes will send a weak cold front ESE from the Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley later today. Ahead of these storms, however, we can expect very warm/humid conditions to continue as highs will peak in the low to mid 90s (with a few upper 90s possible) and peak heat index values between 100 to 105 degrees in most locations.
520 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2022 Current surface map places high pressure across eastern Montana into western South Dakota.
656 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the upper Great Lakes this morning which will pass through the area today. With the trough aloft over the area today, will be a slight chance for some instability showers and kept in the slight chance pops in for this afternoon over most of the area. Troughing behind a cold front persists tonight over the north- central United States. Overnight temperatures could drop into the mid-40s late tonight under the cool 850 mb temps as the low center digs southward. High pressure ridging moves into the western U. A low pressure system moving southeastward through Manitoba and Ontario is expected to drop a front from north to south late Monday night.
610 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022 Early morning satellite imagery shows scattered mid-level clouds moving southeastwards from north of the region as the upper level trough continues to swing through, with upper level clouds off to the south. At the surface, temperatures have cooled off nicely into the 50s across the region, likely dropping a couple more degrees into the lower 50s possibly even upper 40s for low-lying areas prior to sunrise. While a bit weaker than yesterday, the wind will be sustained 15 to 20 mph with gusts 20 to 30 mph, though gusts could be closer to 35 mph for those along the Buffalo Ridge due to elevation.
602 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022 Overview: Much cooler conditions return to the area today with highs in the mid 70s expected.
730 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2022 High pressure will move offshore tonight and Monday.
716 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2022 Showers and thunderstorms return today and tonight with a cold front. High pressure and cooler temperatures return for Monday. The surface cold front, which will be the focus for showers and storm development, will not reach the western counties until early this evening. Instability will increase today ahead of the cold front, however, with the slower progress the front may miss peak heating.
414 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2022 MORNING DISCUSSION: An upper level ridge building over the Pacific Northwest will move in over the next several days allowing for warm and dry conditions across the region.
Winds will be on the increase this week as low pressure develops along the west coast. * Drying out and heating up today and Monday as high pressure amplifies over the region in advance of a trough moving into the Pacific Northwest. While nighttime will still be cooling off, the heat risk for sensitive populations will reach the low to moderate category and measures should be taken to avoid activity during the hottest part of the day.
A cold front is working across the area ushering in dew points in the 50s while low clouds continue to move east exiting the area. A cooler and drier air mass is working into the area for today and tonight as the storm system which brought our rain continues moving east away from the area. Northwest flow is expected to begin the period before ridging builds in across the middle of the week. Towards the holiday weekend, guidance agrees that another cold front is expected to move into the area. With high pressure and drier air moving into the area, VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
533 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022 Cooler and less humid air will filter into the region today, on gusty northwest winds. High pressure will settle over the region for the start of the work week, bringing quiet weather and temperatures a few degrees below normal. A cold front was pushing into western IL at 2 AM. Northwest winds will increase this morning as the MSLP gradient tightens behind the front, and ahead of surface ridging over the central Plains. Highs will be considerably cooler than recent days, near 80 for most areas though mid 80s south of I-70.
Cooler temperatures and periods of marine clouds and fog are expected for coastal areas. Afternoon highs in the mid 90s up to around 105 degrees are expected again today in the warmer interior valleys.
and Monday Gusty winds and drier air will advect in this morning as a cold front pushes east of the area. Conditions will be much cooler and less humid today, with highs ranging from the 60s across the north, with highs in the lower to middle 70s across east-central Wisconsin. The clearing skies and cooler airmass will allow temperatures to fall into the lower to middle 40s across the north, with lows in the lower 50s across east-central Wisconsin. A ridge of high pressure will then build in across the western Great Lakes region on Monday, with continued dry conditions as temperatures moderate slightly under mostly sunny skies.
The cold front will continue to move slowly southeast through the remainder of the forecast area during the morning today, taking the chance for showers and thunderstorms with it.
Benign weather pattern will remain in place the next few days as high pressure continues to build over the region. H5 heights continue to increase as the ridge strengthens and expands over the Great Basin. Temps this afternoon should climb into the mid to upper 80s in the lower valleys and into the lower 90s to start the workweek.
Mid/upper-level flow becomes northwesterly over the region today as upper-level ridging and heat build to our west. Favorable mixing winds should allow highs to peak in the lower to mid 80s.
1008 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2022 A cold front will traverse the area on Monday with high pressure expected to settle in for the middle portion of the week. Increasing low-level moisture combined with strong daytime heating and sfc convergence along a sfc trof is expected to result in numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight.
For Monday, look for a quiet and cool start to the day, with temperatures climbing to a near seasonal high in the low to middle 80s.
Today and Tonight Currently early this morning, mid/upper ridging is centered to our west with a surface cold front approaching the Ohio River Valley. Additionally, PWAT values are anticipated to be near 2" with fairly high freezing heights, meaning that efficient rainfall rates could lead to a localized flash flooding threat.
Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 70s with daytime highs in the low to mid 90s.
608 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022 (Today through Sunday night) A cold front is located across north Texas and is forecast to move into the northern Big Country around sunrise, then the I-20 corridor by late morning, and finally reaching the I-10 corridor this evening.
630 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022 Key Messages: - Cool, less humid and breezy today - Rebounding temps through mid-week with storm chances Tue/Thur Today: Cool, breezy and less humid A much less humid and cooler Canadian airmass will continue to filter across the region today in the wake of the passing cold front. After a sunny start to the day, diurnal cumulus will increase beneath the mid-level cold pool as an upper trough swings across the Great Lakes, with higher coverage to the north. An isolated shower could not be completely ruled out across northern WI this afternoon closer to the upper trough/coldest mid-level temps. Cool overnight lows generally in the low 50s are on tap for tonight with a few locations in central/north-central WI falling into the low to mid 40s.
With the deeper moisture further south compared to 24 hours ago high temperatures today generally along and north of Interstate 70 will be in the middle 60s to middle 70s while to the south highs will be in the lower to upper 60s. For the overnight hours, the forecast area will be dry with an upper level ridge building near the four corners area.
600 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2022 Additional shower activity clears the terminals this morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Mainly clear overnight with perhaps some high cloud in the post-frontal wake and high pressure building into the region. This will effectively end precipitation potential for the remainder of the day despite the surface extension of cold front tracking through MBS around 18Z, northwestern Metro Detroit around 21Z and through the remainder of the cwa by 00Z this evening. May raise highs a degree or two as deeper mixing this afternoon/lowering dewpoints should allow temperatures to warm compressionally right in advance of the cold front.
Showers and thunderstorms that develop will move slowly as the low and mid-level wind flow is 5 knots or less.
953 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2022 High pressure centered off the Mid Atlantic coast will provide a dry weekend with seasonably warm temperatures.
This begins to change by late evening as a cold front currently extending from the Great Lakes into the Mid Mississippi Valley will make its way southeastward into the Tennessee Valley. The cold front will extend across north Georgia on Monday as it begins to stall with loss of upper push. Temperatures today will reach into the low-to-mid 90s for most, though lower dewpoints will keep Heat Index values in check. RW By Monday night, the mid level ridge axis has begun to break down.
A Heat Advisory is currently in effect for the lower elevations through at least Monday evening. Based on the upper air pattern of having a strong ridge over the West Coast and minimal change in 24 hour conditions, confident that today will be another hot day. With the strong ridge axis over the West Coast, excessive heat will exist across the region.
The cold front has made it to the I-20 corridor, but is now only bringing northerly flow <10kts. (Today through Monday afternoon) Latest surface observations show that the cold front has arrived in our area sooner than expected, currently nosing into the northern Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico. The cold front receives another push this evening with northeasterly winds taking over area wide. Another round of storms will fire along the front Monday afternoon, with greatest precipitation chances focused across the lower Trans Pecos into the Davis Mountains.
Late tonight, winds are expected to become light and variable over a broad area of South TX, and a weak divergent pattern of the low level winds develops to result in slightly lower dew points.
cooler temperatures and periods of marine clouds and fog are expected for coastal areas. Afternoon highs in the mid 90s up to around 105 degrees are expected again today in the warmer interior valleys.
High pressure remains to the northwest over Nevada, keeping monsoonal moisture flowing into the region, especially along and south of the Mogollon Rim. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop again late this morning initially across the high terrain then increasing over much of the area through the afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue this morning behind the passage of a cold front. Behind the front, much needed relief from the heat can be expected as a cooler airmass moves in. An upper level trough situated over Canada and the northern CONUS has flattened the ridging pattern, allowing for a cold front to push through the majority of the area late last night into the early morning hours. Beginning today, the area will receive much needed relief from the heat, as a cooler, drier airmass moves in. With the cooler air mass in place, afternoon highs in the upper 70s, with some areas reaching 80 is in the forecast, which would be 5-10 degrees below the climatological normal.
751 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2022 Aviation - Becoming cooler today through Monday - A consensus of latest short range guidance and CAMs suggest that Lingering early morning showers mainly over our se fcst area will exit our area by around 12Z this morning. Skies will be partly sunny today and it will be cooler with temps this afternoon in the 70s.
Building ridge will bring sunny & dry weather today with temps in the 70s. JKL Upper ridge building in from the west will bring dry and warmer weather today through Monday.
Tonight through Monday, as the upper ridge builds east, the moisture axis shifts west and tilts as a tongue of drier air pushes southeast over eastern portions of the Southeast. Also helping is a weak cold front pushing south of the Tennessee River Valley to over northern portions of the Southeast.
ECMWF Ens/Clusters indicates at 500mb, a ridge will continue to be positioned over the western parts of the United States with a trough in Canada, this will continue to give the area northwest flow aloft ushering in the cooler air.
Highs temperatures will be in upper 80s the low 90s Monday afternoon, with heat indices approaching triple digits. An unsettled pattern continues as an upper level trough evolves into a cut-off low as the week continues.
315 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022 Currently have an upper trough over the Western Great Lakes region with water vapor imagery showing a mid level moisture plume extending from NM into CO and through KS. At the surface, high pressure extends from western Nebraska through western KS with the cold front now down across central TX. This will allow lee troughing to strengthen, getting us back into some return flow and a warming trend. Highs will be slightly warmer for Mon as they top out around 80 with upper 80s likely by Tue. This feature will eventually swing across the Northern Plains on Thu which will allow a cold front to start to work south across the Central Plains and will bring back shower and storm chances.
1021 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022 Looking at upper air analysis from this morning and the upper level ridge is beginning to shift more to the west.
1250 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2022 An approaching cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area this afternoon and evening. This low will send a cold front into the forecast area this evening and into the overnight hours. As a result, convection will likely develop along and ahead of the approaching cold front as it moves through the area between roughly 21z (5PM EDT) and 06z (2am EDT).
1103 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2022 High pressure will move offshore tonight and Monday.
1243 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022 (Today and tonight) An upper trough digging across the U. Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest will continue to push a cold front across the Southern Plains this morning.
Low temps will fall into the lower 60s in many areas. Most places will reach the lower 80s with strong June sunshine.
(This evening through Monday) Late this afternoon, a cold front was moving southward through western and central Texas. Temperatures immediately behind the front were about the same as ahead (roughly in the mid 90s), but cooler conditions existed further north across the Panhandle and Oklahoma. This should be aided by weaknesses in the upper-level ridge as it begins to break down. Tomorrow the slightly cooler, but also more humid, airmass will have filtered into the area. As the ridge continues to weaken, this will enhance any storms that develop.
Monday should see more sun, steady southwest winds, and highs about 10 degrees warmer than today. A cold front is expected to swing through the FA Monday night, and more showers/storms are possible with this feature.
/issued 1021 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022/ Looking at upper air analysis from this morning and the upper level ridge is beginning to shift more to the west.
High pressure centered over the Plains will shift east through Monday, keeping benign weather in place for most of the area. Otherwise, look for less windy conditions Monday with temperatures 5-10 degrees warmer than today.
An upper low spins over Ontario this afternoon, while a cold front at the surface has pushed well into the Southern Plains. Though dry air in the low and mid level will keep most locations dry today, modest low level lapse rates and mid-level moisture wrapping around the western periphery of the Ontario low may create a few isolated showers or even a thunderstorm this afternoon in central and eastern portions of the state. Monday, 850mb temperatures gradually rise with weak mid-level ridging developing.
(Today through Monday afternoon) Latest surface observations show that the cold front has arrived in our area sooner than expected, currently nosing into the northern Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico. The cold front receives another push this evening with northeasterly winds taking over area wide. Another round of storms will fire along the front Monday afternoon, with greatest precipitation chances focused across the lower Trans Pecos into the Davis Mountains.
The ridge of high pressure responsible for the beautiful weather will maintain its presence over the region Monday. Temperatures will be much warmer tomorrow with many valley locations across western Montana reaching the 90 degree mark. The winner for hot temps Monday will be the lower valleys of central Idaho and the Lower Hells canyon where highs around 100 degrees will occur.
143 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2022 Aviation - Becoming cooler today through Monday - A consensus of latest short range guidance and CAMs suggest that Lingering early morning showers mainly over our se fcst area will exit our area by around 12Z this morning. Skies will be partly sunny today and it will be cooler with temps this afternoon in the 70s.
315 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022 Early afternoon temperatures are all over the place across the Midsouth ranging from 98 degrees with a heat index of 107 at Tupelo to the lower 70s where rain has recently cooled the air. Numerous showers and thunderstorms continue across the Midsouth as a cold front slowly moves across the area. Cooler air will filter in across the remainder of the Midsouth tonight.
157 PM MDT Sun Jun 26 2022 Upper level ridge moves over the area for the next couple days bringing dry weather with temperatures warming to a few degrees above average.