Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 234 PM CST Fri Mar 3 2017/ High clouds have been streaming in ahead of an upper level trough situated over the Baja of California this afternoon. A lee-ward trough over southeastern CO has been responsible for our winds this afternoon, which have been gusty at times to near 30 mph across a few areas of our northern forecast area. Overnight, as the upper trough moves eastward, we'll continue to see an increase in cloud cover and a bit of moisture return. Left high temperatures mostly in tact with the higher temperatures across the northwest where clouds should be faster to clear, and the lowest temperatures across the southeast where clouds could sock the area in most of the day.
926 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2017 A hard freeze will occur tonight as much colder air associated with a strong high pressure arrives.
Moisture moving down the ridge will once again bring the chance of a mountain wave by tomorrow morning. Flat upper level ridge will build over the forecast area, with warm advection continuing through Saturday. Lows tonight will be a little warmer in most locations, with the warmest readings near the foothills in light downslope flow. Airmass will remain very dry and southwesterly flow in the low and mid levels increases a bit, increasing the fire danger.
401 PM MST Fri Mar 3 2017 The shallow high pressure ridge over the forecast area will be driven east of the region tonight by the trough digging southward along the coast of British Columbia. Southwest flow picks up a bit on Saturday/Saturday night as the low off the Pacific Northwest continues to dig southward. MAV MOS has performed poorly relative to the MET guidance of late so will steer highs toward the warmer MET Saturday afternoon.
Most areas in west Tennessee and north Mississippi will dip to or slightly below the freezing mark by sunrise tomorrow. Surface analysis this afternoon places a 1039 mb high pressure center near Indiana and Kentucky. This is resulting in sunny skies across the Lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon.
537 PM CST Fri Mar 3 2017 This afternoon a strengthening N/S-oriented sfc trof continued to strengthen from the Northwestern Plains to the CO/NM border. In fact, a small area of low pressure has developed over Eastern CO. Tonight: The afore-mentioned sfc trof camping out across the Western Plains will team with the large, strengthening high pressure to keep fairly brisk S/SW flow across the KS Neighborhood. Sat Night-Sun Night: Overall the lower-deck pattern changes little.
946 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2017 High pressure will build east of the region tonight. A band of light snow will develop late tonight into Saturday morning ahead of a northward advancing warm front.
A ridge of high pressure building into the area will keep winds generally below 10kts through the forecast period.
406 PM CST Fri Mar 3 2017 High pressure centered over southern Illinois this afternoon will continue to slide to the east tonight and tomorrow turning winds easterly and eventually east southeasterly ushering in gulf moisture in advance of an upper level low advancing out of south Texas.
554 PM CST Fri Mar 3 2017 The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features an upper-level trough pushing off the Northeast Coast, with an amplifying ridge building across the western CONUS. This upper-leveling ridging will build into the Midwest through the day on Saturday, bringing another substantial warmup to the region. Have gone with highs in the mid to upper 60s, with some of the warmer spots potentially climbing to around 70 degrees. KD Upper ridge over the region Sat evening will move ewd with sly to swly flow thru the low levels. Have trended aoa the warmer guidance. More clouds are expected on Sun with deeper moisture return and have therefore trended slightly cooler from Sat temps, but still above warmest guidance.
Warmer and generally rainfree conditions are anticipated through much of the short term period. High pressure will pull off to the east tonight/Saturday, allowing winds to become more southerly.
432 PM MST Fri Mar 3 2017 The shallow high pressure ridge over the forecast area will be driven east of the region tonight by the trough digging southward along the coast of British Columbia. Southwest flow picks up a bit on Saturday/Saturday night as the low off the Pacific Northwest continues to dig southward. MAV MOS has performed poorly relative to the MET guidance of late so will steer highs toward the warmer MET Saturday afternoon.
853 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2017 Dry weather expected through the weekend as high pressure builds back in over the region. High pressure will provide dry conditions through the weekend with a warming trend in temperatures.
546 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2017 Another cold front moves through early this evening, accompanied by a few snow showers and snow squalls mainly over southern New Hampshire into extreme southwest Maine.
With regards to changes in the overnight part of the forecast, I went ahead and bumped up snowfall totals in the highest elevations of the Smokies. Deep upper trough rotating through the area will continue to provide periods of isolated to scattered showers. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 35 72 49 73 / 0 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 50 33 67 47 74 / 50 10 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 51 32 68 47 72 / 40 10 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 30 62 38 73 / 80 20 0 0 0 NC.
A big upper level low will keep patchy light rain/snow/sleet showers over the area this evening, with mainly snow showers for the Upper Cumberland overnight.
438 AM EDT Sat Apr 9 2022 A large closed upper low over the northern Great Lakes and Ontario will maintain showery and unseasonably cool conditions through the weekend.
Ensemble guidance shows a good amount of energy entering the western US with a large anomalous upper trof developing over the northern plains.
(Today) Clear skies and light winds have allowed temperatures to fall below freezing in many locations early this morning, especially in the lower valley areas.
As the low system continues to trek eastward high pressure at the surface and aloft will move in and dominate the area for Saturday. Therefore, there is a probability that some areas will shift from rain to freezing drizzle or drizzle based on surface temperatures.
We will likely see midday temperatures in the upper 50s across much of the area with highs in the low to middle 60s. A ridge will shift across the Mississippi river valley Sunday resulting in dry and warmer conditions.
Upper level short wave ridging will continue to move closer to the area overnight and move overhead during the day on Saturday. A short wave trough moving from the Pacific northwest into the Intermountain West on Saturday will induce surface cyclogenesis and troughing in lee of the Rockies. Winds will turn to the west or southwest tomorrow afternoon from the surface pressure trough to the west of the region.
315 AM EDT Sat Apr 9 2022 It'll be another seasonably chilly day across Eastern Kentucky as a couple of short waves move through the larger trough. Plenty of sunshine expected on Sunday and much warmer as high pressure moves off to the east and southerly flow develops across the area ahead of the next system moving across the central plains. Afternoon high temps will range from the lower 60s north of the mountain pkwy to near around 70 closer to the TN line.
These showers are occurring on the southwest side of large upper low currently over Michigan that will continue to move east tonight. Expect dry weather Saturday and Saturday night as subsidence sets in the the back side of the upper trough and an upper ridge currently over the Rockies builds into the Midwest. Britt After a relatively cool start, Sunday still looks to be dry and warmer as the upper ridge moves across the area and winds turn out of the southwest during the day as the GFS/ECMWF are showing a warm front moving north across the CWA during the day.
Crossville is currently reporting snow and temps right at 32 degrees, so have left a Freeze Warning going for a few counties that will be at or below freezing early this morning. A warm front will begin to lift northward early Sunday morning which could spoil the frost development for some, but it does look like most of the area will see a least some frost when they wake up on Sunday.
With clear skies and light winds, radiational cooling will aid in temperatures falling to near freezing for parts of central, northern, and northwest Oklahoma. Strong WAA begins tomorrow as the ridge moves overhead and as a lee trough develops along with breezy southerly winds.
Regional satellite picture shows clouds at 10-15k feet arriving from the west, associated with the warm conveyor belt of a Pacific Northwest trough. At the surface, a low pressure center was over southeast Alberta, while radar returns within the warm conveyor belt were spread across southern Saskatchewan. High pressure continues progressing eastward across the state for the remainder of the day today resulting in relatively warm temperatures in the 50s, sunny skies, and light winds. Before the major system potentially impacts the area, upper low pressure will continue tracking across southern Canada Sunday.
145 AM EDT Sat Apr 9 2022 An additional day of showers as low pressure moves east of the region.
The upper trough axis pushes through Sunday night, bringing cooler westerly flow and lows near to below the freezing mark.
1220 AM CDT Sat Apr 9 2022 (The rest of tonight) At long last, winds are subsiding across the area this evening as deep upper trough moves off to the east and high pressure at the surface makes a brief visit. With clear skies and light winds and a very dry airmass in place, widespread freezing temps expected overnight, with some normally colder spots potentially reaching mid 20s by morning.
Today and Tomorrow: Passage of a mid-level ridge will lead to clear skies, southern winds, and high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees warmer than yesterday. Ensemble model guidance is in good agreement in a band of precipitation developing behind a cold front that will track southeast through the Dakotas and into Nebraska. The front should clear the forecast area by noon on Sunday which should result in most of the forecast area being cooler than Saturday. In southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, temperatures could easily overachieve along a narrow thermal ridge. Additionally, the increased temperatures and moisture combined with the low pressure system could lead to weak thunderstorms in those areas.
250 AM MDT Sat Apr 9 2022 Broad troughing takes over the area starting today and lasting throughout the week. Cold front departs the area this morning along with a frontal band of light rain.
411 AM EDT Sat Apr 9 2022 A large closed upper low over the northern Great Lakes and Ontario will maintain showery and unseasonably cool conditions through the weekend.
330 AM EDT Sat Apr 9 2022 An upper level low will bring scattered showers to the area today.
444 AM EDT Sat Apr 9 2022 It'll be another seasonably chilly day across Eastern Kentucky as a couple of short waves move through the larger trough. Plenty of sunshine expected on Sunday and much warmer as high pressure moves off to the east and southerly flow develops across the area ahead of the next system moving across the central plains. Afternoon high temps will range from the lower 60s north of the mountain pkwy to near around 70 closer to the TN line.
Tonight, this cooler, drier airmass ought to radiate efficiently to colder temperatures once again in the 30s south to upper 20s north. A cooler regime in the upper 60s/70s will be the result for most of the area, with uncertainty lingering in how warm the southern counties may reach (similar to Saturday) which could easily be in the low 80s once again - for locations like Liberal to Medicine Lodge.
Deep layered low pressure across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley continue to produce low level cold advection and cyclonic curvature. Current mid level cloud deck is producing precip at mid levels, but the low level dry polar air is allowing the precipitation to mainly evaporate before reaching the ground, so the chance of any measurable precip this evening is quite low. The deep upper trough axis rotates across The Midlands and CSRA on Saturday. Radiational cooling should lead to patchy frost in sheltered locations with lows in the lower to mid 30s.
The forecast area will remain situated within the deep trough over the eastern U. A Freeze Warning has been issued for the northeast mountain counties where temperatures are likely to dip near or just below freezing. While conditions are not ideal for widespread frost formation given elevated wind speeds, a Frost Advisory has been issued for the remainder of north Georgia due to the high degree of sensitive vegetation that has already emerged at this point in the Spring season.
242 AM CDT Sat Apr 9 2022 (Issued 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 9 2022) Today through Sunday: The upper level low continues to slowly push out to the east this morning however lingering upper level PVA on the backside of the low with lingering midlevel moisture and WAA that is allowing for a few remnant snow showers early this morning across the easternmost parts of the CWA. Into the day today expect upper level ridging to dominate with higher pressure filling in, albeit weak high pressure. It looks as though precip would likely hold off until at least Sunday evening with another upper level trough pushing through the north central US.
447 AM EDT Sat Apr 9 2022 An upper low with help from some lake enhancement was bringing light snow to Lower Michigan into northern Indiana early this morning.
326 AM PDT Sat Apr 9 2022 It will be significantly cooler west of the mountains today as onshore winds strengthen and the ridge aloft weakens.
1059 AM EDT Sat Apr 9 2022 We remain in a post cold frontal environment as as large potent low pressure system moves across the eastern U. Temperatures this morning are in the lower 70s and will recover some though exactly how much remains to be seen.
A deep upper level trough across much of the eastern CONUS continues to slowly meander to the east this morning. Strong CAA on the backside of the upper trough will filter in cold air from the north. As the upper trough ejects to the northeast tonight, winds subside resulting in a calm and clear night. Southerly flow brings warm and moist air back into the Tennessee Valley on Sunday as high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico builds. Temperatures return to near climatological norms in the low to mid 70s on Sunday.
A few reports of sleet/graupel have briefly mixed in with these showers, though no impacts will occur with temperatures well above freezing. /Issued 355 AM EDT Sat Apr 9 2022/ Windy conditions are anticipated again today with broad upper level low circulating cold air down from the Hudson Bay area. Temperatures are expected to fall below freezing again across the highest elevations of NE Georgia. As high pressure finally moves back into the area, we'll anticipate winds to begin to become more Southwesterly tomorrow which will kick off a gradual warming trend back into the 70s by Sunday.
/Issued 355 AM EDT Sat Apr 9 2022/ Windy conditions are anticipated again today with broad upper level low circulating cold air down from the Hudson Bay area. Temperatures are expected to fall below freezing again across the highest elevations of NE Georgia. As high pressure finally moves back into the area, we'll anticipate winds to begin to become more Southwesterly tomorrow which will kick off a gradual warming trend back into the 70s by Sunday.
The thinking remains the same for today, that any meaningful accumulations will occur at the higher elevations of far SE KY. It'll be another seasonably chilly day across Eastern Kentucky as a couple of short waves move through the larger trough. Plenty of sunshine expected on Sunday and much warmer as high pressure moves off to the east and southerly flow develops across the area ahead of the next system moving across the central plains. Afternoon high temps will range from the lower 60s north of the mountain pkwy to near around 70 closer to the TN line.
/AJ/ Prior discussion below: The log jam of an upper air pattern with a large closed low maintaining cool and dry conditions will finally begin to shift east enough today that we should see significant moderation in temperatures.
549 AM MDT Sat Apr 9 2022 A broad upper level trough of low pressure sits across western Canada this morning with a frontal boundary extending northeast to southwest across the Great Basin.
DDV (Issued 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 9 2022) Today through Sunday: The upper level low continues to slowly push out to the east this morning however lingering upper level PVA on the backside of the low with lingering midlevel moisture and WAA that is allowing for a few remnant snow showers early this morning across the easternmost parts of the CWA. Into the day today expect upper level ridging to dominate with higher pressure filling in, albeit weak high pressure. It looks as though precip would likely hold off until at least Sunday evening with another upper level trough pushing through the north central US.
945 AM CDT Sat Apr 9 2022 Lingering cloud cover continues to diminish across the cntrl TN Valley this late Sat morning, as the upper trough axis translates further to the east into the Atlantic states. Temps though are slow to rebound given a continued stout WNW wind, which is still allowing some seasonably cooler air to spread across the area. As the upper trough ejects to the northeast tonight, winds subside resulting in a calm and clear night. Southerly flow brings warm and moist air back into the Tennessee Valley on Sunday as high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico builds. Temperatures return to near climatological norms in the low to mid 70s on Sunday.
Fair weather conditions will prevail throughout the weekend as mid to upper level ridging builds across Southeast TX. Along the surface, high pressure over Southern TX will move into the Gulf waters this morning and continue northeastward towards LA throughout the day. Today's high temperatures will rise into the low to mid 80s areawide.
616 AM EDT Sat Apr 9 2022 A large closed upper low over the northern Great Lakes and Ontario will maintain showery and unseasonably cool conditions through the weekend.
Extensive cloud cover associated with a broad upper level trough continues to rotate across north Central ALabama this morning. The broad trough will finally push east of the area today, with skies clearing through the morning. Winds will be gusty once again as high pressure builds eastward across the northern Gulf. It will be noticeably warmer with highs in the low 70s far east to around 80 in the west.
/86/ The log jam of an upper air pattern with a large closed low maintaining cool and dry conditions will finally begin to shift east enough today that we should see significant moderation in temperatures.
This has allowed for temps to drop down into the low to mid 30s for most areas. These areas may still drop to near freezing if winds become light enough. Warmer conditions will be seen for tonight into Sun as the SRLY flow returns.
706 AM EDT Sat Apr 9 2022 An upper low with help from some lake enhancement was bringing light snow to Lower Michigan into northern Indiana early this morning.
Upper low pressure currently located over the Great Lakes continues to support clouds over the area early this morning. Some HiRes models show some showers developing in the northern forecast area but have left them out with forecast soundings indicating a robust layer of dry air in the lower levels. Temperatures much cooler today with upper troughing over the area.
A much cooler weekend is in store for South Florida as northwesterly flow brings cooler and drier air through the region. Highs on Saturday will be a bit cooler, topping out in the upper 70s across the entire area. The high pressure center will begin to shift east which will veer winds more northerly on Sunday becoming more northeast by Sunday night.
Dry and much cooler today, with gusty northwesterly winds that may result in hazy skies due to blowing dust.
443 AM CDT Sat Apr 9 2022 The log jam of an upper air pattern with a large closed low maintaining cool and dry conditions will finally begin to shift east enough today that we should see significant moderation in temperatures.
As mentioned in the previous AFD, descent on the back side of the dry trough passing through the area today is expected to aid drier and windier air in mixing down to the surface this afternoon.
555 AM CDT Sat Apr 9 2022 (Today) Clear skies and light winds have allowed temperatures to fall below freezing in many locations early this morning, especially in the lower valley areas.
Today-Tonight: Quieter weather during the near term periods as ridging transition over our CWA and wake impulses bring increasing high clouds west to east. CLouds may have some impact on temps, but we should still see many locations reach the 50F range along and west of the RRV today, with lows hovering near or above freezing tonight. Current wetbulb profiles generally favoring mainly rain during the daytime period Sunday, as WAA keeps warmer BL temps in place initially. The lowest panels still indicate around 0. Question marks include the usual track of the system, which will affect pcpn placement, rain to snow changeover, and effects from the high winds. We will be stuck with highs near freezing and lows in the teens and twenties.
442 AM MDT Sat Apr 9 2022 A broad upper level trough of low pressure sits across western Canada this morning with a frontal boundary extending northeast to southwest across the Great Basin.
Last night's cold front has ushered in cooler temperatures and unsettled conditions. Weak disturbances moving through the larger scale upper trough in place will maintain scattered rain/snow showers through the day today and into Sunday. Another cold front moves southward through the region on Sunday and cools temperatures an additional 10 degrees from today. The system associated with this cold front will likely bring periods of light snow, especially along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front, where several inches of snow accumulation will be possible.
701 AM EDT Sat Apr 9 2022 A large closed upper low over the northern Great Lakes and Ontario will maintain showery and unseasonably cool conditions through the weekend.
Freezing level about 13kft AMSL. /issued 237 AM CDT Sat Apr 9 2022/ The flow regime today becomes more zonally oriented as an upper level low across central Saskatchewan expands southward with a trough, rotating about the parent circulation, moves into the northern Rockies. With no substantive moisture recovery this morning, fuel states are expected to remain on the high volatility side with easy ignition potential. Speaking of moisture, RH will bottom out close to 5 percent areawide and with 20' winds in the low to mid 20s, this certainly continues to indicate a Red Flag Warning. Tonight, the low level jet will ramp up mainly east of I27 with near 50 KT readings though the nocturnal inversion will temper surface winds overnight.
755 AM EDT Sat Apr 9 2022 Secondary push of cooler and drier air is pushing south through the area this morning. Winds will begin to diminish overnight as high pressure settles over the region.
Leading the charge is a cold front that will reach Billings around 3 AM and continue to move SE across the rest of the state, shifting winds to the northwest and bringing about gusts 30-40 mph, with locally higher amounts up to 50 mph for the foothills west of Billings. In the lower elevations, no major accumulations expected. Despite the current ongoing cold front, temperatures will still rise into the 50s today.
Deep troughing is finally pushing to our east today with decreasing clouds forecast across the eastern and northern counties through the day today. Highs will range from the mid 50s in the higher elevations east to the upper 60s far southwest. Highs will range from the mid 70s in the higher elevations east to around 80 far west and southwest.