Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1224 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL RETURN RAIN CHANCES AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER OHIO REGION FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WEEK. CHANGES FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD INCLUDED SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR NORTHERN AND RIDGE ZONES GIVEN THE CLEAR SKY AND OBSERVED DEWPOINTS. WEAK WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF A WRN GREAT LAKES TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES TODAY.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS CAL/GREAT BASIN WITH SEVERAL WAVES PUSHING N/NE INTO UT/CO. WEAK RIDGING BECOMING MORE ZONAL AS THE CAN WAVE DEPARTS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVR MT/ND WITH WARMER AIR TRYING TO PUSH INTO CNTRL/ERN SD. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE BRINGING THE CAL UPPER LOW INTO THE DESERT SW TUE AS A STRONG WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN JET APPROACHES THE CWA TUE AFTN/NIGHT. SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR THETA E ADVECTION TUE NIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING FORCING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING WAVE. STILL LOOKS LIKE WARMER TEMPS TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
/ISSUED 950 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015/ WILL MAKE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT PREVAILING. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT AND IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS ALONG WITH LOWER CLOUDS WITH MOISTURE NEAR AN JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MILDER OVERNIGHT TEMPS. THE FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL ONLY RE-AMPLIFY NWD TUESDAY FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. AS THE SRN CA CLOSED LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY ESE ACROSS SRN AZ INTO SW NM/NRN OLD MX.
814 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SUNSHINE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS CONTINUING TO SHOW THE LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WILL DOMINATE WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM AS MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO INCH TO THE EAST AND DRY AIR REMAINS LOCKED IN THE LOWER LEVELS. ALREADY TEMPS TODAY HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.
743 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WILL WEAKEN AND ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
AND SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER IN THOSE LOCATIONS THAT WERE PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SE TX AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS C TX AND INTO THE S PLAINS. NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS. AN UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
1219 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS.
RESULTING IN FORECAST HIGHS A COUPLE OF FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH.
824 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.
LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TO OUR REGION. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. AS IT DOES A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA.
1137 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL WEAKEN AND DROP SOUTH ON TUESDAY. A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
1000 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST WILL MOVE MORE RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THU.
/ISSUED 340 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015/ CLOUDY AND COOLER WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH SKIES GRADUALLY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING.
1036 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
THE CENTER OF DEEP AND WARM MID AND UPPER RIDGING IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS SWINGING A SERIES OF TROUGHS EQUATORWARD AS IT AMBLES SLOWLY EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. WITH ONE TROUGH BISECTING SOUTH FLORIDA. CENTER OF THE COLD MID AND UPPER LOW GYRE AREA OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM FLORIDA. THOUGH ADDITIONAL MOISTENING HAS ENSUED IN THE LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE FROM 24 HOURS PRIOR.
710 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TOMORROW.
Otherwise, we still expect lows in the low-mid 60s with light to moderate NNE winds.
Lows tonight will be closers to the warmer GFS MOS because of the clouds.
641 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015 High pressure continues to build into the region behind the exiting front now over the Gulf Coast.
High temperatures will reach the mid to upper 60s most days this week and weekend, and lows will drop into the lower to mid 40s overnight.
738 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.
ANOTHER FACTOR THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER ON THURSDAY WILL BE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
Despite the steady winds in the 8-14mph range overnight, low temps will still dip into the low to mid 40s, with upper 40s south of I-70. The will be little change in the overall pressure pattern across Illinois, as high pressure remains across WI/MN/IA and low pressure remains across the eastern states. High pressure continues to build into the region behind the exiting front now over the Gulf Coast.
DUE TO THE COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION AN INVERSION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND VARY FROM AROUND 850-700MB TONIGHT. THIS WILL PREVENT THE LOWER LEVELS FROM MIXING OUT TONIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SATURATED. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND BECOME CUTOFF OVER THE TN VALLEY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD LOWER A FEW MORE DEGREES FROM CURRENT VALUES AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 60S.
STILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR A WEAK STORM OR TWO INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE HIGHER MTNS.
947 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
WATCHING LAKE CLOUDS REDEVELOP ON SATELLITE OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND TAKING ON THE EXPECTED NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTATION SHOWN IN THE LOW-LEVEL MODEL RH FIELDS.
Some high and mid-level cloud cover spilling over the ridge to our west will move over west-central Texas tonight into Thursday morning, affecting mainly our northern counties. /ISSUED 335 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015/ (Tonight and Thursday) With high pressure continuing to dominate West Central Texas for the next 24 hours, persistence looks to be the best approach for the tonight and Thursday forecast periods.
830 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.
Given the high PWAT airmass (1. The wave will amplify the overall pattern, with an upper low closing off over the northern Gulf Coast states through Thursday night. However, deeper moisture will continue to rotate around the north side of the deepening upper low into our CWA, with best coverage (Sct-Num) across our eastern CWA Thursday night.
827 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT AS SPEED MAX WORKS DOWN BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROUGH AND BEGINS DIGGING IT OUT WITH LOW CENTER DEVELOPING FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY BY 12Z THURSDAY.
1145 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WAS ELONGATED SOUTH AND WEST INTO WESTERN IA. THIS HIGH WAS SURGING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP AGAIN TONIGHT. THIS MAY HELP TO KEEP SOME OF THE EASTERN ZONES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FORECAST. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO THE BLOCKING EFFECTS OF THE EAST COAST UPPER LOW AND TROPICAL SYSTEM.
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE WILL BE FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS. WE CURRENTLY HAVE A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. OUR ATTENTION THEN SHIFT FROM THE FRONT TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL SWING THROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT.
CONTINUED TO KEEP SCATTERED POPS GOING AND HAVE THEM RAMPING UP THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A FAIRLY DECENT VORT MAX DIGS DOWN OUT OF THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW. BETTER CHANCES WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER MANITOBA CONTINUES TO WOBBLE SOUTHWARD. MAIN IMPACTS THIS PERIOD WILL COME FROM AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE SHOWERS WILL HANG AROUND INTO THURSDAY UNTIL THE HUDSON BAY UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO THE REGION (BRINGING IN A LOW LEVEL DRY EASTERLY FLOW).
619 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES DRIFTS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THEREFORE FOLLOWED THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE NUMBERS.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS DOWN ALONG MISSISSIPPI AT 04Z WITH SPEED MAX ON WEST SIDE OF TROUGH.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH OVER EASTERN MONTANA WITH RIDGE STRETCHING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION TOWARDS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. COMPACT UPPER LOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SASKATCHEWAN-MANITOBA BORDER CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME WEAK CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LOITER OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH ENHANCING LOW LEVEL JET. THOUGH CHANCES WILL DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW RETRACTS TOWARDS THE WEST. AN UPPER TROUGH IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW/DEEP TROUGH IN THE GREAT BASIN EJECTS NORTHEAST.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY MAKINGS ITS WAY ENE. A STRONG PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIVE SEWD AND DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS KY. LOWS TONIGHT MAY REACH THE UPPER 50S BUT THE HIGHS TOMORROW WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE THE 60 DEGREE MARK. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
645 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015 CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CENTER AROUND THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND THE AMOUNT OF FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS THAT MAY RESULT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES DRIFTS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THEREFORE FOLLOWED THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE NUMBERS.
1006 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE CLIPPED A FEW ISLAND LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER AND UPPER KEYS THUS FAR INTO THE EVENING.
STEADY SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A MILD FIRST MORNING OF OCTOBER WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE MARINE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CUTOFF ON THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.
/ISSUED 320 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015/ AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE NATION THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD CUT OFF INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY THE END OF THIS WEEK. BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE MID SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL IN LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION AGAIN WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW.
500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.
40 THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA TO JUST SOUTH OF WACO TO JUNCTION.
STRONG AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL YIELD CLEAR SKIES AND VFR AT ALL TERMINALS. THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW JUST OFF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WITH CLOUDY SKY FROM THE CASCADES EAST. AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
/ISSUED 320 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015/ NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF RESPECTABLE RIDGING THENCE AN UPPER LEVEL WHICH SHOULD COME INSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TOMORROW MORNING. / A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG WSWRD ACROSS THE CWFA WITH AN AREA OF UPPER 50 DPTS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS WEEK AND WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY BREAK DOWN.
with a h5 closed low forecast to develop close to the TN valley next 24 hours. The low will then drop SSE.
BUT STILL EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE. CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY MAKINGS ITS WAY ENE. A STRONG PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIVE SEWD AND DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS KY. LOWS TONIGHT MAY REACH THE UPPER 50S BUT THE HIGHS TOMORROW WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE THE 60 DEGREE MARK. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CLEARS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A SECONDARY TROUGH DEEPENS AND AMPLIFIES OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 64 70 58 65 / 40 70 60 60 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 62 69 57 64 / 50 60 70 80 OAK RIDGE, TN 62 68 56 64 / 40 60 70 70 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 60 69 55 62 / 60 70 70 80.
A WEAK AND POORLY DEFINED COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND MEXICO BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S TONIGHT AND DECREASE EVEN FURTHER INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S JUST BELOW CLIMATE NORMALS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
952 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 A TROUGH POSITIONED OVER OUR AREA WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN HUMID THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS AN UPPER LOW AND HURRICANE JOAQUIN MOVE CLOSER TOGETHER.
739 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING REESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES AND VFR AT ALL TERMINALS. STRONG AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL YIELD CLEAR SKIES AND VFR AT ALL TERMINALS. THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION.
An upper level ridge centered over northern Mexico this afternoon extends into our region and has brought hot and dry conditions over the past week. While the ridge will weaken significantly later this week as an upper level trough digs over the Great Basin, don't expect much change in our weather.
Only feature that will help keep temps warmer will be the wind. Still, have trended to the cooler guidance. At most it seems may provide additional cloud cover, stronger winds and therefore, cooler temps. Regardless, latest guidance suggests a trof and associated sfc wave/fnt bringing a chance for precip late Tues into Wed.
Some high and mid-level cloud cover spilling over the ridge to our west will move over west-central Texas overnight into Thursday morning. Some high and mid-level cloud cover spilling over the ridge to our west will move over west-central Texas tonight into Thursday morning, affecting mainly our northern counties. /ISSUED 335 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015/ (Tonight and Thursday) With high pressure continuing to dominate West Central Texas for the next 24 hours, persistence looks to be the best approach for the tonight and Thursday forecast periods.
1255 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
While TAFs currently indicate MVFR vsbys in the morning, there is a good chance that with the 06z update a tempo for 1/2SM will be needed at some sites, with the highest chance being at VLD.
CURRENT TRENDS LOOK GOOD WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH OVER EASTERN MONTANA WITH RIDGE STRETCHING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION TOWARDS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. COMPACT UPPER LOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SASKATCHEWAN-MANITOBA BORDER CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME WEAK CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LOITER OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH ENHANCING LOW LEVEL JET. THOUGH CHANCES WILL DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW RETRACTS TOWARDS THE WEST. AN UPPER TROUGH IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW/DEEP TROUGH IN THE GREAT BASIN EJECTS NORTHEAST.
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC COMBINES WITH THE DEVELOPING HURRICANE TO PRODUCE NORTHEAST WINDS.
While the low levels of the atmosphere are quite dry, a steady stream of mid level moisture was evident in WV imagery from central California into Utah and western Kansas. and expect another pleasant fall day with highs a couple degrees cooler.
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MN WITH LEE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL MT INTO WESTERN NE. TROUGH MOVES LITTLE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PEAKS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES.
948 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
952 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
BETTER CHANCES WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER MANITOBA CONTINUES TO WOBBLE SOUTHWARD. MAIN IMPACTS THIS PERIOD WILL COME FROM AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE SHOWERS WILL HANG AROUND INTO THURSDAY UNTIL THE HUDSON BAY UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO THE REGION (BRINGING IN A LOW LEVEL DRY EASTERLY FLOW).
ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO WINDIER AND GRADUALLY COOLER CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THURSDAY. AS A VIGOROUS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE N CA COAST WAS PUMPING MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THIS EVENING AND SOME OF THE CLOUDS WERE DRIFTING INTO OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES.
EXPECT THE LOW CEILINGS TO CONTINUE WITH VISIBILITIES GOING DOWN TO MVFR/IFR AT CROSSVILLE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY BY 12Z THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A VERY WARM AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
DRIER AIR SURFACE AND ALOFT IS IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
1119 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL BUILD EASTWARD NORTH OF MAINE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONT ON THU WELL BEHIND THE LOW DEPARTING THRU THE MARITIMES AND AHEAD OF SFC HI PRES BUILDING SE FROM N CNTRL CAN WITH PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES N AND PTLY TO MSLY CLDY SKIES OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
Short range models indicate the upper level ridge of high pressure in the Desert Southwest building northeastward across the Central and Southern Rockies tonight enhancing a northwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains. Meanwhile, a strengthening upper level jet is projected to crest the ridge axis and dig southeastward into western and central Kansas overnight. Due to the prevailing southeasterly upslope flow, increased cloud cover and potential light precip may linger across central Kansas early Thursday as the upper level ridge axis shifts slowly east into the high plains of eastern Colorado. Low temperatures in the 50s(F) to near 60F can be expected tonight with surface dewpoints remaining generally in the lower to mid 50s(F) across central and southwest Kansas.
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS REGION FOR ANOTHER TWO TO THREE HOURS AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS STEADILY EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
COOLER WEATHER WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE IS STRENGTHENING AND CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWEST /HURRICANE WARNINGS OUT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NW BAHAMAS/ A DEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
1002 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015 CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CENTER AROUND THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND THE AMOUNT OF FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS THAT MAY RESULT.
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SLIGHTLY EAST OF ITS LOCATION DURING THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. HOWEVER WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ALOFT AND COOLER HIGHS TODAY.
THE COLD FRONT IS PERHAPS BETTER REPRESENTED BY GUSTS ALONG I-20 SITES THAN OTHER ELEMENT WITH EVERYBODY WITHIN A MILLIBAR OR SO OF 1013 TO 14. BUT WE COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOP SOME MORE LOW CLOUDS AROUND DAYBREAK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AT LEAST THE COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE ENJOYED AS WE DIP BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THIS PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS ALREADY TO HAVE SOME GOOD AGREEMENT ON OCCURRENCE ON A COLD FRONT AND FRESH COOL AIRMASS.
THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES TOMORROW AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SWEEPING INTO THE WEST COAST. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE HINTING AT THE SLIM POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT.
1046 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
AT 5H THE TROF AXIS STRETCHES ACROSS ERN AL WITH LOW CLOUDS COVERING MUCH OF THE TN VALLEY. AT 2 PM TEMPS WERE IN THE LOW/MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA. FOR TONIGHT THE CDFNT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH A COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE 5H TROF WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
725 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 COOLER NORTH LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF LINGERING MOISTURE WITH MAIN TROF AXIS STILL TO OUR WEST.