Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Occluded upper low over the ND/SD/MN area will begin to move east this evening and progress across MN and Wisconsin through Weds night. Some snow showers will persist over the higher mtns through Weds but amounts look to be on the light side so will be able to allow the current warning there to expire late this afternoon. A low amplitude ridge will pass by late Wednesday into Thursday with temperatures warming a little as skies clear out some later tonight into Weds.
Ceilings and visibilities should improve as a cold front moves across the area and dry air invades the region. /issued 944 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016/ Cold front currently along a line from El Dorado to Lufkin. Much cooler temperatures expected by daybreak with portions of southeast Oklahoma dipping below freezing.
Expected some convection this afternoon to evening as the upper system and cold front gradually move through the region.
/issued 226 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016/ A broad upper level trough is over most of the country with the CWA at the south end. Temperatures today are expected to be a little cooler than yesterday as lower heights spread across the region due to the upper trough. A cold front will move through the area tonight in association with the upper trough. Overnight lows will likely reach the freezing point or below for much of the area. On Wednesday, the previously mentioned upper trough will begin to move eastward while another upper low moves over the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures on Wednesday will be cooler than normal with highs mostly in the 50s. Temperatures are expected to be near normal on Thursday with highs in the lower 60s across the Permian Basin.
Dry and cool conditions will persist into Tuesday before an upper low brings a cloudy and rainy period to the region starting Tuesday night and persisting possibly into the weekend.
237 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016 A cold front currently stretches from the eastern Great Lakes back through NW Georgia to the Mississippi coast. The models have slowed down the southward progression of the cold front with successive runs. Cooler and slightly drier air is expected on the back side of the front tomorrow. Temps along the Interstate 20 corridor have the potential to be warmer than forecast for tomorrow, especially if the front stalls to the north. Still enough lift generated by perturbations in the overall upper trough to warrant continued low pops for the extreme southern tier. Front clears the entire area by Wed afternoon as East Coast upper trough continues to deepen.
150 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016 A quasi-stationary front across southwestern NC will return north as a warm front today as a cold front approaches from the west.
Went ahead and undercut the 12 UTC guidance consensus for lows tonight given the observed temperature pattern from this morning which came in cooler than than forecast. Thus, in a similar setup with good radiational cooling tonight, widespread lows in the lower to mid 30s are expected for the aforementioned areas. The weekend low was pulling away from the area as high pressure ridging moved in. For tonight, with light wind, a clear sky, and forecast dew points in the lower to mid 30s will expect patchy frost. At this point the lowest forecast low temperature is 36 so we'll not expect frost to be widespread enough to warrant an advisory.
154 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016 A cold front with a line of showers will sweep through the region overnight.
An unsettled weather pattern will begin developing as low pressure moves in from the south.
520 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016 A cold front with a line of showers will sweep through the region overnight.
True "front" remains northwest of the Valley terminals with bridging east/northeast winds ahead of it. Beyond the afternoon, the atmosphere remains moist but the forcing disappears under still remnant 500 mb ridge.
The upper level low centered in the northeast Gulf continues to provide weak synoptic-scale ascent across the Tri-State region this afternoon.
/issued 747 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016/ Morning water vapor satellite imagery is showing the upper level low near the Florida Panhandle is starting to dip southeast into the eastern Gulf today, while the Florida Peninsula remains under a fairly moist airmass. Weak high pressure will continue to hold north of the waters through the next several days, with light and generally east winds turning onshore each afternoon with the sea breeze.
The upper low moving in from Mexico will bring partly cloudy skies to Ventura and LA counties which will help to knock a few more degrees off of max temps as well. The low brings a slight chance of a mountain shower or thunderstorm and have put in the grid for the afternoon over the eastern San Gabriel mountains.
(Issued 945 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016) The last warm day of the forecast period is underway across the Tennessee Valley, with a cold front knocking on the door of NW AL. A prefrontal trof is traversing the area this morning, as evident by both visible satellite and radar imagery (of waves propagating E/SE ahead of the main front to the NW). The main story for today will be cold front to our west, its eventual movement across/through the area, and what convection will be associated with it. 12 For 18Z TAFs: A transitional period as a cold front moves across the region.
320 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016 Overall, a quiet forecast is in store for the short term as we have high pressure sitting over the Central Plains.
Slight cooling is possible on Tuesday near the coast, yet the strong high pressure aloft and lack of a persistent onshore flow will result in another very warm afternoon across much of the region.
219 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016 An upper low is sliding southward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. Ahead of this low over the Keys, the upper level winds are difluent and greatly enhancing ventilation for wide spread showers and numerous thunderstorms. Have have a flood advisory out for the Lower Keys through 345 pm local time. The activity with the combination of the upper low and the cyclonic flow over the Keys have prompted an increase in rain chances to showers and thunderstorms likely tonight.
1227 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016 Water vapor imagery along with RAP 500mb analysis showing a deep trough extending south across MN/IA. deep low pressure around 999mb over southern Ontario with a cold front extending southward through western Lower MI into Indiana. Cooler air filtering into the region this morning on westerly winds with temperatures as of 3 am ranging from the upper 40s to the middle 50s. deep cyclonic flow with tight pressure gradient will reside over the region for cooler/blustery conditions. Otherwise, look for highs ranging from the middle 50s to the lower 60s. Deep cyclonic flow lingers over the region as the closed low moves farther southward into Indiana. another slightly cooler than normal day on tap with highs in the 60- 65 degree range.
300 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016 Afternoon satellite and radar show the cold front just beginning to nose its way into Central AL. The upper low centered on the panhandle of Florida is beginning to stream moisture in from the Gulf, which has increased storm and shower activity for the southeastern counties. Convection in the southeast is expected to gradually diminish as the upper trough pushing in the cold front begins to push the upper low southward. Storms and showers associated with the cold front will slowly transition from NW to SE this afternoon. 92/Baird The cold front is forecast to continue to pushing southward, although at a fairly slow pace, as initial driving force of the upper level trough lifts out to the northeast.
Cold front has moved just south/east of the cwa but band showers/ iso storms continues to hang back across northwest middle TN with trailing upper trough. Periods of lower vsbys/ cigs may accompany precip but a clearing trend is expected tonight as a cold front moves further away.
326 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016 A front currently residing just north of the forecast area will turn stationary overnight as the parent upper level trough driving the front southward begins to pull to the north and east of the region. This will keep warmer than average temperatures and higher humidity values through tonight and into tomorrow. The convective threat will diminish rapidly tomorrow night as another short wave trough digs into the Plains states and drives the stalled frontal boundary through the area.
Therefore, have allowed the High Wind Warning to expire at 26/18Z.
A gradual cooling trend is expected to begin on Tuesday as an upper ridge drifts slowly east through the week. Northwest California is located on the western periphery of an upper level ridge this afternoon. The thermal trough has shifted back east allowing northwesterly winds to redevelop along the coast. A gradual cooling trend is in store for the next few days as an upper trough deepens off the Pacific Northwest coast.
252 PM MDT MON SEP 26 2016 Current weather pattern shows a rex block with high pressure over the Great Basin and a closed low pressure system spinning over the Baja Peninsula near the old Mexico-Arizona border. Our CWA is largely being influenced by this high pressure area, providing sunny skies and dry conditions with weak winds aloft. Some high level clouds may seep into the southern reaches of our CWA late Tuesday as the low over the Baja gets pushed northward into Arizona, but overall dry conditions will prevail.
A weak area of low pressure will develop east and northeast of the region tonight, and the flow will shift offshore. The base of the upper trough will move over the region on Tuesday, and deep westerly flow will prevail.
253 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016 Manual analysis of 12z upper-air data revealed an intense mid to upper-level low over Ontario into the upper Great Lakes with an amplified upstream ridge from western Canada into the Great Basin. In the low levels, an elongated anticyclone stretched from the northern Intermountain Region into the southern High Plains as of early afternoon. Expect these winds to quickly diminish this evening with clear skies allowing overnight lows to fall into the lower to mid 40s. Tomorrow (Tue), west-northwesterly downslope flow in the low levels will allow for slightly warmer high temperatures (compared to today) with gusty surface winds again developing by afternoon.
143 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016 A cold front will move east across the region today, bringing showers and a few thunderstorms. Drier and cooler weather will move in behind the front tonight and Tuesday. An upper level low pressure system is expected to move into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by mid week which will keep the weather cool due to clouds and the threat for showers. Cold front is located near the middle of the FA, with a gust front well ahead of the front near the eastern periphery of the area. A large scale mid level trough will close off as it slowly digs southward into the western Great Lakes tonight into Tuesday. Highs will range from the lower to mid 70s, which is typical for late September.
313 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016 Latest water vapor imagery shows a upper level low over the northern Great Lakes region, with upper level ridging over much of the western CONUS. At the surface, a cold front extended from the parent low over the Great Lakes, southwestward into the lower MS Valley. The main cold front has reach through the western half of the CWA, though lingering post frontal showers were noted with the main trough axis over portions of western TN and northern MS.
644 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016 A weak area of low pressure off the southeast coast will lift northeast tonight and Tuesday. A cold front will pass through from the west Tuesday night.
Latest models continued earlier noted trend of developing cutoff upper low in our region through the second half of the week. Initial PV filament and associated low level trough axis will rotate into our NW CWA Tuesday night.
135 PM MDT MON SEP 26 2016 The upper ridge in place over the northern and central Rockies will move east over the high plains on Tuesday. The cool area of high pressure at the surface moves into the southern high plains overnight with a weak westerly near surface flow across the forecast area. As a result of clear skies and weak west surface winds, expect temperatures to rise into the lower to mid 80s by Tuesday afternoon. At the start of the period, a closed low remains over the eastern half of the country while a ridge of high pressure centers over the Plains.
Monday night through Tuesday High pressure will control the weather through the period and bring quiet weather. This will also allow temperatures to rise several degrees above normal with highs in the 80s a possibility for some of the warmer spots like Casper, Worland and Greybull.
Cold front now moving into East Tennessee. Low- level moisture hangs in behind the front and allows for mostly cloudy skies overnight, which will help to keep our temperatures several degrees warmer than previously forecast. Upper trough lagging behind front quite a bit so we won't see any real push of colder and drier until tomorrow afternoon. Highs tomorrow will be several degrees cooler. Highs will range from the low-to-mid 70s north to near 80 south.
/Issued 1002 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016/ Cold front currently stretches from the central Great Lakes down through NW Alabama to the Louisiana coast. This frontal system should be south of our CWA by 06z-12z Wed as it ushers in a cooler and drier airmass for the extended. Still enough lift generated by perturbations in the overall upper trough to warrant continued low pops for the extreme southern tier. Front clears the entire area by Wed afternoon as East Coast upper trough continues to deepen.
200 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016 A cold front crosses late today with showers and thunderstorms.
215 PM MST MON SEP 26 2016 A developing low pressure system over northwest Mexico and the Baja Peninsula will slowly move north toward southwest Arizona tonight. Variable cloudiness, cooler temperatures, and a threat of showers and afternoon thunderstorms are forecast.
402 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016 A cold front is crossing the area providing showers and thunderstorms.
251 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016 High pressure in control both at the surface and aloft will keep the weather quiet the next 24 HRS. Good drainage wind expected in favored areas such as the Platte River valley and have gone with the lower guidance for lows in most areas. A surge of warmer air will move east off the Rockies Tuesday. This warmer air will be aided by a downslope flow component, and have highs reaching the upper 70s to mid 80s across the region.
Undercut the 12 UTC guidance consensus for lows tonight given the observed temperature pattern from this morning which came in cooler than than forecast. Thus, in a similar setup with good radiational cooling tonight, widespread lows in the lower to mid 30s are expected for the aforementioned areas.
An upper ridge building into Montana today will stay in control across the area during this period.
1238 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016 High clouds trailing the cold front that has moved through the Midwest and the Ohio River Valley is quickly clearing out of the region as well. High pressure is building into the Midwest and the cooler and drier air is sinking into Central Illinois. This should dry things out nicely today with ridging building in. Conditions this afternoon will definitely feel fall-like as temperatures will only reach into the lower to middle 70s and combine with the breezy winds out of the northwest. An upper level low from the western Great Lakes will bring cooler air into the Midwest through the end of the week. However, the medium range models disagree as to the position of this low and how long it may linger in the region.
139 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016 A cold front will move through quickly later this afternoon and early tonight. After a dry day or two, the forecast becomes rather wet with a cut off upper low. No real anticyclone behind front due to building trough to our west and wave along the coast.
221 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016 A cold front with a line of showers will sweep through the region overnight.
As the area of rain erodes and moves farther south this afternoon and evening, the remaining MVFR cigs should lift into the low end VFR range for the remainder of the period. Rain chances will significantly decrease by mid afternoon as drier air moves in from north to south, and as the upper low over Baja California moves farther west.
Highs will top out in the lower 70s Tues afternoon with lows Tues night in the upper 40s/lower 50s.
124 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016 A cold front extends from N of a IAH. /issued 1120 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016/ A cold front continues to move across the area.
*** From previous discussion *** Due to warmer air mass max temps are going to equal or exceed yesterdays very warm numbers. An additional concern for Tuesday will come from an upper low moving in from Mexico it will bring partly cloudy skies to VTA and LA counties which will help to knock a few degrees off of max temps there as well.
/18Z TAFS/ A secondary cold frontal push that moved through AUS around 16Z has just pushed through HYI and will continue progressing south towards SAT/SSF by 21Z. Isolated showers and thunderstorms that are increasing in coverage along the primary front in the Coastal Plains should remain south and east of SAT/SSF, while additional development in the Rio Grande Plains should remain south of DRT as the secondary cold frontal push will further reduce instability. /ISSUED 1035 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016/ At 10 AM cold front was analyzed just south of Del Rio to just north of San Antonio to near Georgetown. The cold front will continue south moving through the I-35 corridor through the remainder of the late morning and early afternoon and into the inland Coastal Plains and Brush Country later this afternoon.
553 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016 Overall, a quiet forecast is in store for the short term as we have high pressure sitting over the Central Plains.
137 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016 Shower and thunderstorm chances continue to be likely at all TAF sites this afternoon as a cold front pushes through the area.
A large upper level low currently centered over Lake Superior will build southward into the eastern United States. For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected with a ridge of high pressure expected to move through the area tonight.
229 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016 Much more pleasant conditions have been seen today across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas in the wake of yesterday's cold front, with this trend likely to continue through much of this week.
/issued 358 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016/ Upper level ridge that encompassed most of the southeastern United States continues to compress and weaken as a trough tracks east across the high plains towards the Great Lakes. The weakening of the ridge and lowering of surface pressure will allow for scattered convection to develop and become slightly more widespread today. Surface analysis shows a cold front associated with the upper trough tracking southward across central texas and central Arkansas. The cold front will slowly sag southward towards the Gulf of Mexico tonight but stall in the vicinity of the coast as the upper low to the north stalls over its Great Lakes position.
212 PM MDT MON SEP 26 2016 The upper ridge in place over the northern and central Rockies will move east over the high plains on Tuesday. The cool area of high pressure at the surface moves into the southern high plains overnight with a weak westerly near surface flow across the forecast area. As a result of clear skies and weak west surface winds, expect temperatures to rise into the lower to mid 80s by Tuesday afternoon.
509 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016 High pressure in control both at the surface and aloft will keep the weather quiet the next 24 HRS. Good drainage wind expected in favored areas such as the Platte River valley and have gone with the lower guidance for lows in most areas. A surge of warmer air will move east off the Rockies Tuesday. This warmer air will be aided by a downslope flow component, and have highs reaching the upper 70s to mid 80s across the region.
The cold front had made its way through the region with the lingering post frontal rainfall associated with the 700-850MB front. Canadian high pressure and upper level northwesterly flow will work to limit afternoon highs to around the 70 degree mark today. The overall weather pattern will be little changed from today through tonight allowing for clear skies and cooler temperatures will lows in the 40s expected. The Ozarks will remain on the eastern edge of an upper level ridge with reinforcing rounds of Canadian high pressure moving south through the plains. For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected with a ridge of high pressure expected to move through the area tonight.
317 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016 A deep upper low continues to spin north of the Great Lakes this afternoon, keeping the northern plains in northwest flow aloft.
208 PM PDT MON SEP 26 2016 High pressure will persist through mid week with above normal temperatures and light winds. A trough of low pressure will move into the west coast for the last half of the week with breezy and cooler conditions.
Cooler air mass behind secondary cold front moving out of the Hill Country is expected to move through the Brush Country by early this evening and off the coast by early in the overnight period. The secondary frontal boundary with cooler air behind it was in the Hill Country.
140 PM MDT Mon Sep 26 2016 Closed low will remain in place over the great lakes with nw conus troughing ongoing. This will support local ridging with associated waa over the northern plains under dry nw flow. Otherwise, warmer conds expected tue with highs in the 70s and a few 80s. Northerly upper flow will continue through mid week as high pressure remains entrenched over the western CONUS. As the upper ridge shifts east, an upper low off the Pacific Northwest Coast will deepen, transitioning the flow over to the southwest.
230 PM MDT MON SEP 26 2016 A warming trend will continue over the next few days as upper-level ridging continues to build into the region.
248 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016 A front will lift north tonight while a cold front approaches from the west.
A weak cold front will bring clouds and a chance of light rain tonight and Tuesday morning to mostly northern areas.
12Z GFS still indicating the deep layer low pressure will drop into Ohio Valley from over the Great Lakes region.
329 PM PDT MON SEP 26 2016 An upper level ridge will remain in place through Tuesday, which will keep above normal temperatures across the region. A cool down is expected as an upper level trough moves into northern California for the rest of the week and into the weekend.
146 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016 A cold front crosses late today with showers and thunderstorms.
300 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016 A weak area of low pressure off the southeast coast will lift northeast tonight and Tuesday. A cold front will pass through from the west Tuesday night.
A cold front will push through SE Texas overnight tonight, bringing much more pleasant temperatures and lower humidity into the forecast for the rest of the period.
The air mass will continue to warm today underneath high pressure aloft. A high pressure ridge will keep Central and Southwest Montana dry and stable.
326 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016 Latest sfc analysis showing that the cold front is just west of the Plateau. At any rate, its much cooler today with current temps in the upper 60s northwest to 70s elsewhere. Sfc ridging will take over on Tuesday and we will see a mostly sunny day with lower humidity levels.
328 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016 A cold front crosses late today with showers and thunderstorms.