Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The weakening cold front will shift slowly southward today, but the CAMs are consistent that at least isolated showers and storms will continue across southeast MO, just north of the front today into this evening. Highs today will be warmer across northeast and central MO and west central IL due to plenty of solar insolation. GKS An active and cooler wet weather pattern will begin Wednesday night as an east to west front develops over our area, while a southwesterly low level jet brings strong low level moisture convergence to southeast MO late Wednesday night.
637 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low in northern Ontario with an associated trough over the upper Great Lakes this morning. There is also a ridge across the Rockies and sern U. The trough moves into the lower Great Lakes this forecast period.
648 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020 In the wake of a cold front. High pressure over the Ohio Valley will support fair dry weather through tonight. An upper level low near the Ontario/Quebec border to start this period will slowly track east toward the Canadian Maritimes.
High pressure will become established for the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend resulting in hot and dry conditions.
1031 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020 In the wake of a cold front. High pressure over the Ohio Valley will support fair and mainly dry weather through tonight.
Once daytime heating gets going, precipitation will become more showery and spread across into more of the state, and affect more of the lower elevations. The trough will continue to lowly drift eastward across the state, generally centered in the NE corner of the state Wednesday morning. With ridging building to the west, and moist westerly flow will continue to produce showers on Wednesday, especially for the Absarokas and the I-25 corridor. 25 are possible for the lower elevations.
741 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected through part of today with a crossing cold front. Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are then expected through the week under a trough of low pressure. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible along a passing cold front, which will receive an some enhancement from diurnal heating in activity over northeast WV and the southeast ridges with some diurnal heating. are expected this morning with a crossing cold front. A gradual clearing trend is expected behind the front under dry advection and building high pressure, though afternoon CU may mar the return of sunny skies. Otherwise, cooler air and strong radiational cooling will yield more seasonable temperature.
A few higher clouds will enter the southwest late today ahead of the upper low. High pressure remains over the region with light winds. High pressure remains centered over the state with mostly clear skies, light winds and current temps generally in the 40s and 50s. High pressure remained centered over ND early this morning supporting clear skies and light winds. 500mb heights show a closed low over Ontario and ridge axis extending from Wyoming through Saskatchewan.
Latest surface analysis places a low pressure system over Quebec with a cold front extending south along the Appalachia Region and back through southeast Missouri.
High pressure will then build over the desert southwest by Wednesday and will bring much warmer temperatures and a downturn in monsoon activity through the end of the week. After Tuesday, look for drying conditions as the well advertised ridge of high pressure begins to build in across the southwest with a warming trend.
648 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020 Isolated showers will persist today as a cold front makes its way southeast. High pressure accompanied by dry weather is forecast to take over tonight through Wednesday.
High pressure remains centered over the state with mostly clear skies, light winds and current temps generally in the 40s and 50s. High pressure remained centered over ND early this morning supporting clear skies and light winds. 500mb heights show a closed low over Ontario and ridge axis extending from Wyoming through Saskatchewan.
Upper level flow will continue from the northwest today as ridging aloft becomes established across the Intermountain West. Other isolated thunderstorms could occur near the South Dakota border this afternoon as a weak backdoor cold front pushes southwest toward the area.
528 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected through part of today with a crossing cold front. Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are then expected through the week under a trough of low pressure. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected this morning with a crossing cold front. Otherwise, a gradual clearing trend is expected behind the front under dry advection and building high pressure.
919 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2020 High pressure will bring dry weather to central and southeast Illinois today, along with warm temperatures and less humid conditions.
DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 72 88 73 86 / 60 50 80 60 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 71 89 72 85 / 30 40 60 50 90 Oak Ridge, TN 90 71 88 72 84 / 40 40 60 50 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 68 87 68 85 / 60 30 70 40 80.
Latest model trends have been to raise the high temperatures this week.
High pressure will become established for the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend resulting in hot and dry conditions. The dew points are in the upper 40s and lower 50s across much of the state yet this morning so with day time heating feel there is justification for having a threat of showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain of central and southern Utah, and more so across northern Utah where the 500mb thermal trough is moving across today.
437 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2020 Surface analysis shows high pressure generally prevailing across the north-central CONUS, although a weak low pressure center is shown over central SD. Highs will remain in the upper 70s to mid 80s with lows in the lower 50s to lower 60s both today and Wednesday. However, the ridge begins to break down a bit as the upper level closed low over eastern Canada pushes out over the Atlantic, with a secondary circulation beginning to settle over the Hudson Bay area by the start of the weekend.
451 AM PDT Tue Jul 28 2020 High pressure will strengthen over the southwest states.
532 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2020 High pressure will bring dry weather to central and southeast Illinois today, along with warm temperatures and less humid conditions.
3 inches with a convergence zone/trough axis shifting northeast through the area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
616 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2020 Another pleasant, but slightly warmer day in store across our region today. Elsewhere, slightly cooler temperatures are expected as a surface boundary slides south through today.
523 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2020 Satellite imagery and 500mb RAP analysis showed a closed low over eastern Canada, with a large trough stretching from the northern Plains to New England. Behind this system, upper ridging built across the western half of the country, placing the region under northwest flow. However, the better potential for storms will be south of the region where a cold front lingers as well as to the west.
We will leave a slight chance in the far south this evening, and then toward daybreak will bring a slight chance of showers back northward a bit as a warm front begins to move through the region. The warm front will continue to lift northward through most of the region through the day Wednesday and that will lead to decent chances of showers and thunderstorms, especially by afternoon. With the warm front in the vicinity and lots of moisture to work with, widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms should spread eastward across the region Wednesday night, especially overnight.
The low and mid level ridge remains just to our north as apparent in the east to southeast wind regime the Florida Keys is under. Short Term Update - The placement of the low and mid level ridge couple with the dry air will keep rain chances for today and tonight at 10 percent or less.
Ten am Temperatures are running a degree or two warmer than yesterday, but cloud cover is increasing and should keep afternoon highs slightly cooler than yesterday around 90 degrees for most of the area. Latest surface analysis places a low pressure system over Quebec with a cold front extending south along the Appalachia Region and back through southeast Missouri.
After collaboration with surrounding office have decided to hold off on any headlines at this time and can be re-evaluate with later guidance to better pinpoint the highest threat area. As for temperatures, lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s and highs in the low to mid 80s.
As this circulation pushes east tonight and tomorrow, a large closed system of high pressure will build over the southwestern U.
This afternoon and tonight, the weak surface front/trough is a little slower and as result, precip chances. The front/trough will settle somewhere between central and southern Iowa tonight and will not make it into Missouri by most model solutions. High pressure over the northern portions of the upper midwest will keep precip from far northern and northeast Iowa but the southwest half to two thirds of the state now appears will see some chance for showers/storms.
127 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low in northern Ontario with an associated trough over the upper Great Lakes this morning. There is also a ridge across the Rockies and sern U. The trough moves into the lower Great Lakes this forecast period.
244 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2020 A cold front will move south through the forecast area from Canada this afternoon. After frontal passage, high pressure settles overhead tonight. The high remains in control Wednesday and Wednesday night.
135 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2020 An unsettled weather pattern will continue through tomorrow before warmer and drier conditions build into the area. The upper level low will continue to move east overnight with the threat of showers and thunderstorms moving to southeastern Montana. Storm coverage will decrease overnight Wednesday as the low moves east and out of Montana.
A large and broad upper trof over the interior eastern states is weakly connected with a modest upper trof which extends across Mississippi/Alabama/Louisiana into the far western Gulf. This tenuous connection breaks down as the weak upper trof continues slowly westward into Texas tonight allowing for an upper ridge over the eastern Gulf and part of the extreme southeast states to expand into the central Gulf. The upper ridge continues to slowly expand a bit further west into the northwestern Gulf on Wednesday while a broad upper trof remains over the interior eastern states. Lows tonight range from the lower 70s inland to the mid/upper 70s at the coast.
A cold front has edged into Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and far Northwest Tennessee bringing temperatures down into the low to middle 80s. A longwave trough is deepening over the Northern Plains, Great Lakes and Midwest setting up Northwest flow across the Midsouth.
955 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2020 Satellite imagery and 500mb RAP analysis showed a closed low over eastern Canada, with a large trough stretching from the northern Plains to New England. Behind this system, upper ridging built across the western half of the country, placing the region under northwest flow. However, the better potential for storms will be south of the region where a cold front lingers as well as to the west.
238 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2020 A check of the water vapor imagery and 12Z upper air analysis across the CONUS shows a large closed low sitting between Hudson Bay and the Great Lakes with troughing across the eastern third of the U. There is ridging across the western half of the country although there are disturbances impinging on the ridge including one over northern UT/southern ID that will affect us Wed and Thu. At the surface, high pressure was situated over the CWA with stationary fronts lying east/west over southern SDak and southern KS.
300 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020 A cold front and trough of low pressure will approach the area by midweek and linger over the region into the weekend. An isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out through the overnight as broad upper troughing will be entering. Aforementioned broad trough will initiate convection once again on Wednesday. With the clouds and rain, temps held down somewhat, with near climo readings in the upper 80s to the low 90s. Will see a pattern shift during the period, as upper trough and surface front move into the region. A broad upper level trough will move into the Eastern US Wednesday and linger through the weekend.
By tomorrow, upper level ridge building into the area a little stronger and the lack of a surface boundary like we have today should reduce PoPs significantly. Exception will be across the eastern Big Country mainly east of Abilene along the periphery of the ridge and will go ahead and mention isolated storms over there.
322 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020 Low level ridge axis remains across south central Florida this afternoon with a general southwest to west flow across the area. On Wednesday the low level ridge drifts north into central Florida with a rather light flow allowing the east and west coast sea breezes to develop and move well inland. However, some of the showers and thunderstorms could move back to the west coast late in the day/evening as the ridge axis drifts a little further north.
Broad large-scale midlevel ridging resides across the southern third of the US.
Overall surface convergence along the front will be rather weak, as the main flow south of the front will be from the WSW and contributes to the low confidence in its occurrence. A mid-level trough was noted over the Idaho/Montana/Wyoming border and will be the focus of the forecast after tonight's slight chances for showers and storms. This trough is expected to deepen and continue on its way southeast into the Great Plains region, reaching central Nebraska around 12z Wednesday. As the deepening trough pivots southeastward, it will begin to work along side with another disturbance that is currently in central Oklahoma and cause precipitation to spread into eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa both from the west and the south.
High pressure remains across the region with not much change in the synoptic and forecast pattern. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s once again with heat indices into the triple digits.
/issued 513 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2020/ (Today and Tonight) Aside from a small chance of showers and thunderstorms, the highlight of the short term is hot afternoon highs.
Winds become northwest as a cold front currently northwest of the area moves through. This will favor onshore flow tonight for many lakeshore communities along Lake Superior, helping keep temperatures locally warmer (upper 50s) overnight. Elsewhere, lows will fall into the low to mid 50s, with a pocket of mid/upper 40s possible across the interior west. Wednesday will be a few degrees cooler behind the front. Strong subsidence overspreading the region as high pressure builds in should keep a lid on any shower development as the subsidence inversion and magnitude of dry air aloft increase throughout the day.
242 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2020 The area will remain under the influence of an upper high system centered over the Desert Southwest. However, the flow around the high will include a drier mid level flow resulting in the transport of warm dry continental air aloft.
Overnight, another round of low level clouds and patchy fog will develop, mainly across the Coastal Plains where dew point depressions and condensation pressure deficits will be the lowest. Tomorrow will be another repeat of today as an upper level low meanders along the coast and drifts off to the southwest leaving a general upper level weakness in its wake.
For once, decent deep layer shear (40-45 kts in the 0-6 km layer east of the Mississippi River) will be present, owing to an upper level jet rounding the base of a larger scale trough over the Great Lakes. The region will be stuck under a relatively quiet northwest flow aloft with upper level ridging over the Rockies and troughing into the eastern Great Lakes from an upper level low near Hudsons Bay. What rain chances there are will be over the upcoming weekend as a short wave trough swings around the upper level low and across the northern Great Lakes. Right now, the bulk of the forcing from this wave should stay to the northeast of the area but it does look to push a weak cold front into the area.
319 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020 A cold front will push southeast of the Commonwealth this evening.
315 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020 Hot and humid weather will continue with an increase of showers and thunderstorms over the next few days as trough of low pressure approaches the area. Bermuda High will get suppressed southward this period as the mid to upper trough extends southward from the Great Lakes through midweek. This will push Piedmont trough eastward as it becomes more amplified. Hot and humid weather will continue, but temps Wed aftn will run a few degrees less due to clouds and rainfall, mainly in the lower 90s.
332 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2020 A mid to upper level high is currently sitting over the southwest to include Mexico, CA, AZ, and NM. An area of low pressure sits between the Great Lakes and the Hudson Bay. Northeast to easterly winds at the surface will create storms this afternoon in the higher terrain of NM and CO, then move into the FA from the northwesterly steering flow. However, most of the area will have to wait until this evening for rain to move in off the higher terrain. For tomorrow, daytime highs will be slightly warmer with temperatures in the 90s for much of the FA.
1200 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2020 High pressure will bring dry weather to central and southeast Illinois today, along with warm temperatures and less humid conditions.
Disturbances along this boundary may produce thunderstorms late Wednesday night into the weekend, when a more substantial upper level low pressure system looks likely to more into the region and eject the boundary but produce additional shower and storm chances. Although skies will be clear most of the night, and cannot totally rule out some patchy light fog in spots, certainly not expecting the areas of dense fog that occurred this morning with this lower dewpoint air.
These thunderstorms, supported by a developing low pressure system moving off the Rockies into central Nebraska, will encounter sufficient instability across much of the Panhandle and north central Nebraska.
241 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2020 Water vapor imagery shows the upper low slowly crossing Wyoming at this time, within a Rex block across the western to central CONUS.
Low level onshore flow will result in cooler high temperatures over the interior today.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 88 73 86 73 / 40 80 60 90 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 89 72 85 72 / 30 60 50 90 70 Oak Ridge, TN 71 88 72 84 71 / 30 60 50 90 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 87 68 85 69 / 30 70 40 80 70.
The high pressure will continue to linger in the area through the end of the week.
Temps will be warmer on Wed with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s over the southeast plains, in the 80s in the high valleys, and in the mid 70s to around 80 in Teller County.
Surface analysis shows high pressure generally prevailing across the north-central CONUS, although a weak low pressure center is shown over central SD. Highs will remain in the upper 70s to mid 80s with lows in the lower 50s to lower 60s both today and Wednesday. However, the ridge begins to break down a bit as the upper level closed low over eastern Canada pushes out over the Atlantic, with a secondary circulation beginning to settle over the Hudson Bay area by the start of the weekend.
Issued by National Weather Service Gray ME 322 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020 A cold front will cross the area and push off the Downeast coast this evening. Weak high pressure builds into the region overnight.
355 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2020 The leading edge of the flow field associated with an upper level trough was reaching central Colorado this afternoon. By Wednesday, flow field associated with the upper level trough will be father east.
1239 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2020 Another pleasant, but slightly warmer day in store across our region today. Elsewhere, slightly cooler temperatures are expected as a surface boundary slides south through today.
With the antecedent rainfall we've had over the last 12 hours, the potential for some brief heavy downpours this afternoon and evening, and models producing more widespread heavy rainfall in the 06 to 12Z time period tomorrow morning (consistent with the higher PWATs and upper level forcing moving through), the flood watch has been extended for central and parts of southern Oklahoma through 12Z tomorrow.
Tomorrow Wednesday should be another day with chance for rain before the upper ridging takes better hold of the area.
137 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020 Seasonable temperature and periodic rainfall chances are expected through the weekend under a trough of low pressure. A passing cold front will push south and east of the region today, with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible along the boundary, mainly in the ridges of WV/MD. Gradual clearing is expected behind the front under dry advection and building high pressure, though afternoon CU may mar the return of sunny skies. Cooler air and strong radiational cooling with clearing skies will yield more seasonable overnight temperature, with low potential for patchy fog within river valleys.
426 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020 Seasonable temperature and periodic rainfall chances are expected through the weekend under a trough of low pressure. Previous Discussion: Gradual clearing will continue as the cold front exits east and dry air overspreads the Ohio River Valley. With a trough positioned just north of the Great Lakes, cooler air will advance into the region under NW flow and yield more seasonable overnight temperature.
710 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020 I will be updating the forecasts to incorporate tropical cyclone data. /issued 322 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020/ Low level ridge axis remains across south central Florida this afternoon with a general southwest to west flow across the area. On Wednesday the low level ridge drifts north into central Florida with a rather light flow allowing the east and west coast sea breezes to develop and move well inland. However, some of the showers and thunderstorms could move back to the west coast late in the day/evening as the ridge axis drifts a little further north.
631 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2020 A broad and weak mid level trough is in place over OK, with what appears to an MCV spinning near OKC/Norman.
954 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020 A cold front and trough of low pressure will approach the area by midweek and linger over the region into the weekend. Aforementioned broad trough will initiate convection once again on Wednesday. With the clouds and rain, temps held down somewhat, with near climo readings in the upper 80s to the low 90s. Will see a pattern shift during the period, as upper trough and surface front move into the region. A broad upper level trough will move into the Eastern US Wednesday and linger through the weekend.
APF could see the higher chances of TSRA over the interior sneak west in the afternoon and early evening. High pressure remains across the region with not much change in the synoptic and forecast pattern. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s once again with heat indices into the triple digits.
/issued 242 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2020/ The area will remain under the influence of an upper high system centered over the Desert Southwest. However, the flow around the high will include a drier mid level flow resulting in the transport of warm dry continental air aloft.
Issued by National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1008 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020 Hot and humid weather will continue with an increase of showers and thunderstorms over the next few days as a trough of low pressure approaches the area.