Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THOUGH WIND GUSTS WERE SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER AS THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAVE MOISTENED THEREBY LIMITING DOWNDRAFT SPEED. MODELS INDICATED A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT IN AN AREA OF WEAK OVERRUNNING. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL TRANSLATE INTO COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH READINGS RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WED AND PERSIST THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RELOADS ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST ON THU. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES AT TO THE TRACK OF THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LATE FRI THROUGH SAT.
210 PM PDT TUE MAY 19 2015 SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEK WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES.
/ISSUED 355 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/ QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO DUE TO A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE WHICH DEVELOPED FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A SHORT WAVE WHICH EJECTS FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN U.
1209 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015 SNOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE DAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE VALLEYS. EXPECT ROADWAYS OVER THE HIGH PASSES WILL REMAIN ICE FREE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER WESTERN UTAH THIS MORNING AND WILL EVENTUALLY EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS END THIS EVENING WITH DRIER AIR SWEEPING IN FROM THE WSW AS WEAK RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD OVER. LINGERING MOISTURE UNDER THE FLAT RIDGE COMBINED WITH WARMER CONDITIONS WILL KICK OFF ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BUT SHOULD REBOUND NICE ON WEDNESDAY UNDER THE RIDGE SLIDING OVERHEAD.
248 PM CDT Tue May 19 2015 The active weather pattern will continue through the remainder of the week under persistent SW flow aloft thanks to continued upper troughing over the western ConUS. things should be fairly quiet through early afternoon as a cold front sinks south through the TX Panhandle.
COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. SYNOPTICALLY A VERY BROAD LONGWAVE TROF CURRENTLY ACROSS OUR AREA WILL MAKE LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL. LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD A RIDGE ALONG THE COAST WHILE THE TROF PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. BIG QUESTION IS WILL THE RIDGE AXIS MOVE OVERHEAD OR SIMPLY FLATTEN OUT. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH. SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM SCA. SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM.
1237 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015 MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING WILL BE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW STATUS DECK THAT HAS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IOWA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL AS THE COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL BE ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL HELP SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS BY AROUND 09Z.
348 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ELONGATED UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR SOUTH STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WEAKEN BUT MOVE TOWARDS THE RED DESERT EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVE EVER SO SLOWLY EWD TOWARDS CASPER MOUNTAIN BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND FILLS.
350 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO RETURN THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A shift to a cooler and more unsettled pattern is expected for the upcoming holiday weekend. Deep upper level low continues to hover over northern Utah with moisture and instability streaming westward over southern Idaho and much of Oregon. Meanwhile most of the Inland Northwest continues to see relatively drier air filter in from the northeast due to a strong high pressure east of the Continental Divide.
WITH THE LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH TIME. THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SW IL TOMORROW MORNING. THE HIGHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION. FAIR WEATHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. THIS HIGH IS ORIGINATING OVER THE CHILLY NORTHERN PLAINS.
113 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WITH A MARGINAL/ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER RISK FROM THE EASTERN COAL REGION INTO THE POCONOS. A COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL GRIP THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. COLD FRONT ONLY THROUGH ABOUT 5 COUNTIES AT THIS POINT AND TAKING IT/S TIME. BUT THE LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO THE NW. MAXES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TUES.
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FREE FALLING INTO SUB-FREEZING RANGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE/LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE.
409 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER AND SWINGING NORTHWARD.
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND WAS GENERATING SOUTHEAST WIND FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO EASTERN COLORADO. PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP A FLOOR UNDER THE LOW TEMPERATURES AND A KILLING FREEZE IS NOT LIKELY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF THE HIGH. MODELS WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH A LITTLE FURTHER WEST AND PUSHED POPS FURTHER WEST.
345 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015 OUR TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 80S NORTH TO MID 80S ELSEWHERE. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE REASON IS A GOOD PUSH OUT OF THE ROCKIES OUT INTO THE PLAINS WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW. THE TAIL END OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE IT/S EVOLUTION BEYOND SUNDOWN WITH THE EXPECTATION OF THE UPPER DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE LOW WORKING EAST OUT INTO THE MID SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
RADARS ARE CLEAN THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S.
BECAUSE GROUNDS ARE STILL WET AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT RELAXES. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 70S. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO FLATTEN ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING NOSES INTO THE REGION. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RISE ACCORDINGLY WITH THE HIGHER HEIGHTS /BOTH GFS AND ECMWF 700 MB TEMPERATURE PROGS AROUND 10 DEG C/ AND THIS WILL HELP PROVIDE SOME CAPPING TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. BUT TOMORROW CARRIES THE LOWEST RAIN CHANCES OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN RISING INTO THE MID 80S.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) High pressure building into Missouri and Illinois brings cool temperatures and calm weather to the area today.
AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES. LOOKING FOR ANY MAJOR RAINFALL TO HAVE ENDED AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TREKS EASTWARD OFF THE ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WITH UPPER LOW PASSAGE. EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER REGION AS RIDGE NOSES SOUTHWARD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND FROM THE COOLER HIGHS TODAY. WITH SOME COOLER SPOTS NEAR 50F IN EASTERN COLORADO.
124 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY TO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE LOW 30S IN SOME AREAS. ENERGY FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
204 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. COOLER DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. CLRG AHD OF THE COLD FNT THIS MRNG AS THE LOW CLDS AND FOG FNLY MIX OUT. IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN APPROACHING UPR-LVL TROUGH. IT WILL TURN MUCH COOLER TNT AND WED POST-FROPA. OWING TO WRAP-ARND MOISTURE WITH THE UPR TROUGH. AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS SEWD FROM S-CNTRL CANADA AND THE NRN LKS RGN.
UPSTREAM ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LOW IN PACIFIC SOUTHWEST IS EJECTING NORTHEAST WHICH WILL ARRIVE BASED ON TIMING TOOLS IN AROUND 30 HOURS WITH MAIN FORCING PASSING TO OUR SOUTH WITH SOUTH 1/2 OR SO OF AREA STILL AT RISK FOR SOME PRECIPITATION.
211 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A DRIER AIR MASS TO BUILD IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A WEAK WAVE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW WHILE A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AREA PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY WILL NOT HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE PCPN, BUT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE PCPN SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BEYOND TOMORROW EVENING, DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THIS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE US. OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST AND ALLOW WARM MOIST AIR TO BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST AND BUILD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.
400 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WITH A MARGINAL/ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER RISK FROM THE EASTERN COAL REGION INTO THE POCONOS. A COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL GRIP THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. COLD FRONT ONLY THROUGH ABOUT 5 COUNTIES AT THIS POINT AND TAKING IT/S TIME. BUT THE LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO THE NW. MAXES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TUES.
Wednesday, a cold front will move into the Big Country in the afternoon, and through the rest of West Central Texas overnight. 04 (Wednesday night through Tuesday) The slow moving cold front is forecast to be near the I-20 corridor by Wednesday evening. As thunderstorms develop along/north of this cold front, southerly winds above the boundary layer will feed Gulf moisture into the complex.
LOW PRESSURE ROTATING NORTHEAST RUNNING INTO DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 12000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE SO WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR LIFT TO SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS.
High pressure east of the Continental Divide continues to drive east winds and mostly cloudy skies for much of western Montana. The easterly flow will continue, though it will continue to weaken as the high pressure system slowly weakens and spreads out across the eastern US.
AS RIDGE OF PRESSURE 1022-1024 MB EXTENDS INTO THE THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. UPPER WAVE COMING OUT THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BE CUT OFF BY NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A TROUGH LIFTING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS SPREADING HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE. PLAN ON AREAS OF FROST TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S. THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH SKIES RANGING FROM MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NORTHEAST IOWA.
A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LOWS WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE INTERIOR EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEEK. BAGGY UPPER TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED WEAK IMPULSES REMAINS FIXED ON THE WEST COAST.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NICELY SHOWS THE POSITION OF A COLD FRONT.
THEN MERGE INTO A SINGLE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OKLAHOMA.
THE 500 MB PATTERN OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEEP TROUGH AXIS NOW LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U. THIS TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND WED WHICH WILL ALLOW A LITTLE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME TO BUILD OVER DEEP SOUTH TX INTO WED. CURRENTLY KBRO RADAR SHOWS SOME PATCHY CONV FIRING UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST MEX. EXPECT FAIRLY STATUS QUO TEMPS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TX AS 500 MB RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE U. /MEX BORDER REGION AS THE 500 MB TROFFING OVER THE DESERT SW LIFTS OUT. THE SHORT TERM MAV/MET AND ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE ARE IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT BUT WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS AT MAV/ECMWF BLEND WHICH IS A BIT WARMER VERSUS THE MET NUMBERS.
/ISSUED 355 AM CDT Tue May 19 2015/ Upper pattern remains active with a train of upper lows continuing this week. This morning an upper low was centered over the Intermountain West with SW flow reaching across the area. The first low will move off to the east as another trough develops along the CA coast. This will develop into a closed low before rolling east later in the week.
114 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 STRATUS/STRATO-CU FIELD WITHIN COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL TREND FROM OVC TO BKN THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO WORK INTO AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TODAY AND TONIGHT MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW LIFTING THROUGH WISCONSIN WILL SWEEP ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY.
A COLD FRONT RECENTLY MOVED THROUGH THE AREA. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW WITH VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WAS CROSSING MID TN THIS MORNING. /ISSUED 307 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/ PRETTY QUIET NIGHT ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AREA WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK LIFT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
IN THE LOWEST 10 PERCENTILE HISTORICALLY. /ISSUED 400 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015/ MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED DRY AIR OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER BY THE EVENING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN ENTERS NORTHERN FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN.
/ISSUED 1055 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/ THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS SITUATED ROUGHLY FROM SAVANNAH TN TO MARIANNA AR. THIS BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH AS A SPRAWLING 1030+ MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH BRINGING DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF GIVEN THE STRONGER WAVE ALOFT.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GUST IN THE LOW 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST WEAK 700 MB RIDGING SHOULD LEAD TO EVEN LESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR DAYTIME WEDNESDAY THAN TODAY.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ECFL. A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE DEEP SOUTH FROM THE NORTH AND WILL ALLOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WASHES OUT ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA UNDERNEATH A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 436 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS COLORADO.
This area of rain will continue to progress eastward and will initially have to fight off some dry air at the low levels across the Missouri Ozarks this evening.
ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WILL MOST LIKELY PROVIDE LOW CIGS TO NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A weak cold front will enter the northern Big Country later this morning, providing an additional low level focus for storm development. Afternoon highs today will be in the upper 70s in the northern Heartland to the lower 80s elsewhere.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS WYOMING. AND WEAK RIDGING OVER EASTERN MONTANA.
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE DRIED OUT STEADILY LATER THIS MORNING AS THE DRIER AIR SQUEEZES THEM OUT FROM BOTH THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST.
531 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WITH A MARGINAL/ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER RISK FROM THE EASTERN COAL REGION INTO THE POCONOS. A COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL GRIP THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. COLD FRONT ONLY THROUGH ABOUT 5 COUNTIES AT THIS POINT AND TAKING IT/S TIME. BUT THE LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO THE NW. MAXES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TUES.
For tonight, expect only a few high clouds over the area with sfc temps in the lower 40s to around 50 for lows. As for temperatures, there should be quite a gradient of highs for Wed as the front that pushed through early this morning wobbles back north on approach of the trough.
308 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015 UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE UT AREA WITH THE MAIN VORT LOBE LIFTING OVER NORTHERN CO WITH ANOTHER LEAD PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN AR INTO NORTH CENTRAL OK AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING BETWEEN 8Z AND 12Z.
1140 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF UPPER LOW OVER GREAT BASIN.
AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES. LOOKING FOR ANY MAJOR RAINFALL TO HAVE ENDED AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TREKS EASTWARD OFF THE ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WITH UPPER LOW PASSAGE. EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER REGION AS RIDGE NOSES SOUTHWARD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND FROM THE COOLER HIGHS TODAY. WITH SOME COOLER SPOTS NEAR 50F IN EASTERN COLORADO. WEDNESDAY MORNING DRIER AIR BELOW 700MB WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. DURING THE AFTERNOON A FAIRLY SHALLOW 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE MAIN TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE RAINFALL. AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY STORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE DUE TO A CAPPED ENVIRONMENT.
COLD FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE.
140 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM JUST WEST OF PITTSBURGH THRU THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF NASHVILLE, THEN TO THE WEST THRU NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THUS FAR, ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED IN OUR FORECAST AREA WITH SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NRN GA INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN AL WHERE THE AIRMASS IS MORE UNSTABLE AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROF WAS LOCATED. MOISTURE APPEARS SHALLOWER JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN SRN TN AND NRN AL, AND DRY ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE SFC WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE THREAT OF PRECIP THRU THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
419 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 THE BROAD SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS OFF CENTRAL FLORIDA. TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND JUST NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO ENTER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WITH THE LINGERING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.
BUT CONFIDENCE OF STORMS DEVELOPING IS ON THE LOW SIDE. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
429 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS COLORADO.
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF UPPER LOW OVER GREAT BASIN. DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN GREAT BASIN SYSTEM AND SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS ND AIDED BY A JET STREAK FROM CANADA WILL GIVE A SHARP GRADIENT FROM PRECIP TO DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTHWESTERN SD. 850HT TEMPS ARE WARMER ON 12Z MODELS. MODELS HAVE ALIGNED IN WEAKENING UPPER LOW AS IT JOINS THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WHERE CLOUDS LINGER OVER SOUTHERN SD.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH HAS REMAIN PACKED TIGHTLY ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS IN THE 6-12KT RANGE OVERNIGHT. MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AS A TROUGH LIFTS TOWARD SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
an upper low situated over the Nevada/Utah border will slowly move east and turn our flow more cyclonic. no severe storms are expected given the lack of instability and dynamics as the trough fills as it moves closer.
CLEAR SKIES WILL BE PREVALENT AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION. SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER CLOSED LOW.
245 PM PDT TUE MAY 19 2015 A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
WITH THE HIGH MOVING IN ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI. WE THINK THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THIN ENOUGH ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI TO ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO AT LEAST THE LOW TO MID 30S. THERE REALLY ISN'T FAR TO GO GIVEN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN THE LOWER 40S IN MOST OF THESE LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF I-40. HIGHS WILL BE QUITE COOL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE KY/MO BORDER WHILE MID 80S ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF NE MS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH.
As showers end from west to east tomorrow and cool Canadian high pressure settles into the region, temperatures will remain well below normal tomorrow and tomorrow night.
LATEST UA ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF CNTRD OVER NEVADA. WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE SWINGING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROF AND SETTING OFF A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ACRS WRN TX. TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS THANKS TO THE RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA WILL KICK OUT TO THE NE THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK FLAT RIDGING WILL BUILD ALOFT OVER THE REGION.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 19/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AND SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
For tonight, rain/rain showers will spread west to east into the area but the eastern edge of the rain will fight the low level dry air and the eastward extent of the precip may not make it all the way through the cwfa by daybreak Wednesday. Better, but limited instability will be confined to the southern cwfa closer to the sfc wave of low pressure and the associated w-e oriented sfc front.
1227 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/ A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NY ALL THE WAY DOWN TO SOUTHERN AR AND DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL TN. ADJUSTED THE GRADIENTS AND INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COLD FRONT MOVEMENT TODAY.
328 PM PDT Tue May 19 2015 Variable clouds and mainly mountain showers and afternoon thunderstorms through the week as a series of weak low pressure systems move across California. Broad upper low is over California and will only gradually shift east into the weekend.
TOMORROW, THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REDEVELOPS NEAR THE CA COAST, WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW ALONG WITH DEFORMATION ALOFT OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV.
605 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
333 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CWA WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL GA TONIGHT AND THEN HANG AROUND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS. WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD.