Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Tomorrow, high pressure builds over the area, which will lead to a warming and drying trend for the week. A fairly broad trough has sept up over the west coast. This has brought cooler weather to the region. Tonight's forecast is a bit more challenging than last nights, as we'll be caught between a building ridge and departing trough. Opted to keep some cloud cover over the region, but confidence is on the lower side of stratus developing. Tomorrow, high pressure builds towards the region which will be Unfortunately, this also means there will be periods breezy north winds at times leading to elevated fire weather concerns throughout the week. Tomorrow will have the first round of winds, with the Valley seeing gusts between 15 and 25 mp while the foothills and ridges may see gusts up to 30 mph.
710 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Cooler temperatures and partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected into tonight and Sunday behind a cold front.
Otherwise, once the rain from this last rain band from Delta clears out tonight/early Sunday morning, expect dry and slightly breezy conditions for tomorrow with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s.
Clear skies and light winds are in store as temperatures are expected to dip into the low 60s and mid 50s across the are tonight.
A cold front is currently advancing south of Lake Erie. Storm total QPF of an inch or more is expected south and east of PIT, with amounts possibly exceeding two inches in the higher terrain due to strong upsloping on the east side of the ridges.
This afternoon and early evening will be rather gusty with temperatures topping out in the 70s before dropping after a cold front passes. The highest ranges will have measurable snow if you're hiking up there.
Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper trough beginning to move east of the area this evening.
1035 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Currently - A high cell being pushed further eastward off the Atlantic coast by a mid latitude trough, extends a ridge across the Florida Straits. Short Term Update - The weak ridge will remain across the Florida Straits through the overnight period, keeping winds light out of the southeast to south. In addition to the above, guidance suggests the lower level flow will become confluent as some pinching is occurring between the ridge to our northeast and east and the remnants of Delta over the southeastern United States. A ridge across the Florida Straits will maintain light southeast to south breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
Previous Discussion: A cold front advancing across Lake Erie will return rain showers late this evening north of Pittsburgh. Shower activity will likely stay scarce after dark as high pressure builds. Storm total QPF of an inch or more is expected east of a DUJ/PIT/HLG line, with amounts possibly exceeding two inches in the higher terrain.
616 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Large upper level low pressure trough moving into western Canada and the Pacific Northwest late this afternoon will be moving east through the night and across our region Sunday and Sunday night. The main energy in this trough will dig across our region bringing some good upper level lift Sunday into Sunday evening along with a strong surface cold front pushing through. As the upper level trough approaches, pressure falls and a good surface pressure gradient should keep winds up through the night despite a strengthening inversion. With the cold front surging in and increasing instability, expect more numerous showers and storms to develop mainly across the eastern cwa.
937 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Cooler temperatures and partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected into tonight and Sunday behind a cold front.
620 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 The remnant low pressure of Hurricane Delta over the lower Mississippi river valley, will lift northeast into the eastern Ohio river valley during Sunday night.
As the sun rises and heats the ground, any low CIGs/VSBY should dissipate, with VFR conditions returning and prevailing through the end of the forecast period under high pressure.
Winds diminish on the plains this evening, then westerly flow aloft strengthens ahead of approaching upper trough, leading to pockets of windy conditions over the mountains and along lee ern slopes by early Sunday morning. On Sunday, upper trough swings by to the north, with upper level jet across the northern half of Colorado through the day. Cold front will begin to slide south through the area by late afternoon, with a switch to more nw winds by 00z, especially over the plains. Max temps Sun again on the warm side, though perhaps a few degf cooler than today as mid-level temps begin to move downward.
554 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Impressive view on water vapor imagery this afternoon with decaying tropical system in the Southeast and a strong trough moving across the Northwest. A tap of elevated moisture in the southerly flow ahead of the trough is also evident and is somewhat limiting the critical fire weather conditions. Upstream radar mosaic is rather impressive ahead of the trough. It still appears the snow level will drop below 8000 feet as the front passes and cooler air filters over northern Utah and Colorado tomorrow.
As the mid level ridge sinks southward and Delta lifts north, south/southeast winds will quickly veer southwest prior to daybreak. No major forecast changes necessary, with lows in the low/mid 70s, upper 70s at the coast. Overnight lows in the low 70s.
The trough will continue its eastward progression tonight, with showers expected to weaken by Sunday morning. However, another quick push of moisture immediately behind the trough will bring another round of moisture, especially across the central Idaho mountains. Precipitation is expected to taper off after 06z/Sun across the region except for isolated showers generally over the higher terrain.
AC Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 75 65 81 57 / 90 90 50 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 75 66 79 57 / 90 90 50 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 66 74 65 80 54 / 90 90 50 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 76 62 77 54 / 90 90 60 20 20 NC.
Large upper level low pressure trough moving into western Canada and the Pacific Northwest late this afternoon will be moving east through the night and across our region Sunday and Sunday night. The main energy in this trough will dig across our region bringing some good upper level lift Sunday into Sunday evening along with a strong surface cold front pushing through. As the upper level trough approaches, pressure falls and a good surface pressure gradient should keep winds up through the night despite a strengthening inversion. With the cold front surging in and increasing instability, expect more numerous showers and storms to develop mainly across the eastern cwa.
Impressive view on water vapor imagery this afternoon with decaying tropical system in the Southeast and a strong trough moving across the Northwest. A tap of elevated moisture in the southerly flow ahead of the trough is also evident and is somewhat limiting the critical fire weather conditions. Upstream radar mosaic is rather impressive ahead of the trough. It still appears the snow level will drop below 8000 feet as the front passes and cooler air filters over northern Utah and Colorado tomorrow.
However, a few rumbles of thunder are not out of the question as the low continues northeastward. Showers should continue moving off to the east with the low during the day Sunday.
404 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Impressive view on water vapor imagery this afternoon with decaying tropical system in the Southeast and a strong trough moving across the Northwest. A tap of elevated moisture in the southerly flow ahead of the trough is also evident and is somewhat limiting the critical fire weather conditions. Upstream radar mosaic is rather impressive ahead of the trough. It still appears the snow level will drop below 8000 feet as the front passes and cooler air filters over northern Utah and Colorado tomorrow.
346 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020 A cold front will move through the region today from west to east. An upper trough that digs into the plains behind the sfc front will provide some additional energy and lift for a few additional showers mainly east of the James Valley before drier air pushes in at the mid levels this evening and cuts off any precip. Dry and cooler conditions are anticipated for Monday with highs mainly in the 60s.
A strong cold front will sweep through the area during the next 36 hours, bringing rain and gusty winds.
245 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020 06Z surface data has high pressure over the Great Lakes. Easterly winds will keep temperatures slightly cooler than yesterday with the most cooling in the highway 20 corridor. Starting around midnight and then continuing into Monday morning the next cold front will sweep through the area. Regardless, gusty winds, potentially up to 45 mph, will be possible with the stronger storms and then in the first hour or two behind the cold front. As the cold front reaches the Mississippi river and moves into Illinois thunderstorms will slowly dissipate but wind gusts up to 40 mph will still be possible. Much cooler temperatures will be seen the second half of the week as a pattern change aloft brings cooler air down from Canada.
The latest guidance continues to show the next cold front moving through the area late tonight and clearing the vast majority of the area by sunrise Monday. Temperatures were nudged down from NBM guidance given drier and cooler air expected behind the front.
Another warm day is in the forecast for tomorrow afternoon with highs climbing into the lower to middle 80s. As we get into Sunday evening, changes will begin to unfold across the central CONUS as a trough digs into the Plains. This will be responsible for a strong cold front pushing through the region tomorrow night into Monday. The frontal passage will leave behind slightly cooler temperatures in the 70s on Monday.
Otherwise, once the rain from this last rain band from Delta clears out tonight/early Sunday morning, expect dry and slightly breezy conditions for tomorrow with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s. The base of the mid-level trough associated with Delta's remnants will push through the region Sunday night. Behind the trough, expect drier mid-level air to filter to the region and bring an end to rain chances across the area. We're not expecting much relief from the warmer temperatures as a weak ridge builds across the area under mostly sunny skies.
An active upper trough continues to progress eastward across the Intermountain West this morning.
Highs today will reach the low to mid 80s and lows tonight will fall into the mid to upper 60s.
Look again for highs topping into the low to mid 80s. Tonight the mid level ridge pushes east as a mid level trough rotates across Kansas into Missouri. The pressure gradient tightens as the attendant cold front pushes through central and southern Missouri after 06Z. Overnight lows will in the lower 60s. Breezy and cooler conditions are expected behind the front on Monday, with the strongest winds expected between 12Z-18Z, then diminishing in the afternoon. Highs look to be about 10 degrees cooler than Sunday, with readings in the middle 70s and lows Monday night in the 40s.
Slightly cooler temperatures are expected this weekend as a weak, but dry, weather system passes through the region.
1207 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020 Focus has been on an approaching cold front expected to cross the local area late Sunday afternoon and evening. very dry air and cooler air will filter across the local area to start the new week.
Ample moisture will continue today across Central Alabama as the low that was Delta moves northeast across Tennessee today and into the Virginias on Monday. Light rain showers will be possible today across Central Alabama with the best chances in the northern half of the state closest to the low. Moisture will decrease tonight as the low moves further away with rain chances ending during this evening. As for temperatures, there will not be a large diurnal range today with the low stratus and light rain.
A mid level ridge is situated through the Plains states while an incoming Pacific trough is digging into the Pacific northwest. Afternoon temperatures have hit the low 80s. As the Pacific system digs into the northern Plains, a low level cold front will undergo frontogenesis and begin to advance east into central NE and eventually toward the forecast area. Mid level flow ahead of the trough appears to be strong enough to increase 0-6km shear to above 40kts.
This will limit cooling to the low 60s. Surface flow will quickly turn to the southwest early Monday ahead of a cold front. While mid to upper level flow will be fairly strong, low level moisture return ahead of the cold front will be quite marginal, and resulting lapse rates and instability profiles will be weak. Models depict a broken line of showers and perhaps an isolated storm to develop ahead of the cold front Monday afternoon into the evening hours, though none of this activity is expected to be strong/severe. Best chances for any measurable precipitation will be north of the Ohio River where the best dynamics associated with an upper level trough will be. High pressure will build in behind the front Monday night, and give way to drier, more climatological normal temperatures.
The highest QPF amounts will likely remain over west Kentucky this afternoon and tonight, moving from the Purchase area to the Pennyrile region, respectively. The highest values will be over the southern Pennyrile , where storm total precipitation near 1. Once the remnants of Delta move out of the area Sunday afternoon, sharp ridging will build into the area, increasing thicknesses enough for elevated minimum temperatures and highs in the 80s. at the same time, a closed low develop and intensify for the Alberta and Saskatchewan Provinces in Canada, creating a sufficient thermal/vorticity gradient to generate a southeast moving trough and sharpening cold front through the area during the day on Monday.
Also, further north an upper level disturbance will be swinging through the trough across north Florida and this could cause a few light showers/sprinkles during the day.
After a brief period of near normal temperatures, high pressure will push temperatures back to well above average by the middle of the week. A weak weather system over northern Baja early this morning will result in slightly cooler temperatures today compared to the past couple of days. All though cooler, high temperatures will still be a few degrees above normal most locations. Otherwise, dry weather will prevail despite the proximity of a low pressure system.
Low temperatures are expected in the lower to mid 60s across the area tonight with a few low clouds and patchy fog possible across portions of the area that had rain from Delta.
Low level wind shear was added to the E OK TAF sites aft 03Z tonight as a strong LLJ develops ahead of approaching cold front. Clear skies and light winds are in store as temperatures are expected to dip into the low 60s and mid 50s across the are tonight.
The surface warm front appears to have moved into north GA except for the far northern counties where easterly winds and some patchy fog persist. With an upper-level trough over the upper Mississippi River Valley bringing positive differential vorticity advection over the area by Monday morning, light lift could produce some shallow light showers and drizzle Monday morning, but chances of accumulating rain is low for any given area at the moment.
331 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020 Weak upper ridging has developed over the upper Mississippi Valley downstream of a rather impressive upper trough with some convection noted in Washington and Idaho.
(Today and tonight) South winds will increase quickly this morning as pressure falls occur across the high Plains. As the upper trough makes its way east across the northern and central Plains tonight, a strong cold front will drop south through the area. Strong, gusty north winds will accompany the front along with a drier, cooler airmass.
An upper level trough will move across the area today. AC Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 65 81 57 77 / 90 20 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 75 66 79 57 74 / 80 20 20 20 0 Oak Ridge, TN 74 65 80 54 75 / 80 20 20 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 76 62 77 54 72 / 80 40 20 20 0 NC.
SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): 500mb ridge remains over South Texas and the Western Gulf of Mexico through Monday providing large scale subsidence and maintaining above normal temperatures. The warm ridge and sharp boundary layer moisture discontinuity is producing a sharp surface inversion resulting in patchy low clouds and some light fog across the Lower Valley overnight.
A mid-level ridge over Texas will move slowly to the southeast today and tonight. The upper ridge will continue subsident flow today and we will have another hot day. Tonight a cold front will drop down through North Texas reaching our northern border by early Monday morning. High temperatures Monday will be around 10 degrees cooler than Sunday.
High pressure was moving into Arkansas from the northwest. The front will (obviously) offer a reinforcing shot of cooler air.
Surface flow will quickly turn to the southwest early Monday ahead of a cold front. While mid to upper level flow will be fairly strong, low level moisture return ahead of the cold front will be quite marginal, and resulting lapse rates and instability profiles will be weak. Models depict a broken line of showers and perhaps an isolated storm to develop ahead of the cold front Monday afternoon into the evening hours, though none of this activity is expected to be strong/severe. Best chances for any measurable precipitation will be north of the Ohio River where the best dynamics associated with an upper level trough will be. High pressure will build in behind the front Monday night, and give way to drier, more climatological normal temperatures.
Tonight, lows will fall into the lower 40s near Lake of the Woods, with middle 50s in southeast North Dakota. For Sunday, look for increasing cloud cover ahead of a cold front that will traverse the region during the afternoon hours. After that good cold air advection sets in for the end of the week (850 temps -4 to -8C) limiting high temps to the 40s by then, with lows near or below freezing. Cold front and some convection possible tomorrow afternoon with winds turning to the west.
LIX radar indicating a narrow band of showers over southern Jackson County Mississippi, and perhaps a few sprinkles between McComb and Bogalusa as Post-Tropical Cyclone Delta pulls away.
At the surface, lee troughing is in place with return flow remaining over the Plains. Most locations will climb into the low 90s. Very progressive cold front is still expected to move through tonight with very strong winds for a couple hours right behind the front. Even though highs on Mon will be cooler than than the last several days, they will still be a few degrees above seasonal averages. This will allow a more significant cold front to sweep through the area Wed night into early Thu morning. The ECMWF digs the upper trough further west compared to the GFS which results in a much more robust surge of cold air compared to the GFS.
500 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2020 Conditions will trend cooler and wetter into the early part of the upcoming week, as the remnants of once powerful Hurricane Delta moves north into PA later today through Monday.
The core of the upper trough is currently noted on satellite imagery across the PacNW and moving into the Idaho panhandle. Ahead of the trough, the surface cold front has moved across northwest Utah and is now making its way into Utah County. Precipitation will fill in behind the baroclinic zone, supported by the upper jet and steepening lapse rates owing to cooler temperatures aloft. Significantly cooler temperatures are expected across northern and central Utah tomorrow. As the trough moves out of the area tomorrow afternoon, precipitation will taper off quickly and skies will trend clearer for tomorrow night. Some higher valleys as well as the Cache valley are expected to see min temperatures tomorrow night near to below freezing, with widespread frost possible in those areas. Wasatch Front valleys are expected to remain in the low to mid 40s.
Hot, summer like weather will continue across the area again on Sunday, due to a strong low level thermal ridge in place and downsloping southwesterly surface winds. The good news is that we'll get a break from the hot temperatures on Monday, as a cold front moves through the area. Low temperatures tonight will be warmer than last night, with overnight lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Winds will shift around to the south today ahead of an approaching cold front. A weak cold front will approach from the northwest on Monday.
The center is currently very close to our southwest, and while it will continue to weaken, it will lift up into the mid-state later today, and slowly push out this evening as weak ridging builds. Following we do have a weak cold front right on its heels set to swing through Mon afternoon/early evening. SFC/LL high pressure and weak upper flow will then dominant much of the week until another cold front swings by on Thu. This front however will bring some much cooler air down into the mid-state. The weekend does look to be dry but we will see low temps in the mainly in the 40s, with highs only in the lower/mid 60s Fri-Sun.
340 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020 Today will start with an upper ridge extending from Mexico up across TX with a cut off low over Baja. Also a strong upper trough moving down out of the NW will cross the Nrn Rockies today moving onto the plains tonight. The trough over the Eastern US will remain the rest of the week as the ridge reestablishes itself over the West.
233 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020 Water vapor showing a strongly dynamic trough/pv-anomaly moving through the Northern Rockies early this morning. This will aid in deepening low pressure over southern Canada with a strong surface cold front extending southward into the Dakotas by this afternoon. Ahead of this deepening low/cold front, strengthening east/southeast winds will draw in lower level moisture/increasing stratus cloud through this morning. As a result, could see quite a temperature spread across the area today with highs in the lower 60s across north central WI, and 70-75 southwest of I-94. The cold front continues to push eastward into western MN early this evening with an increasing band of showers and storms along it. Temperatures return to near normal with highs generally in the low to mid 60s.
A weak cold front settled southward into central Illinois last evening. A cooler/drier airmass has filtered into the northern KILX CWA behind the front, as evidenced by 08z/3am dewpoints in the upper 40s and lower 50s north of I-74. Due to light E/SE boundary layer flow, high temperatures will be a couple degrees cooler than yesterday. A cold front will approach from the northwest tonight, but any showers associated with this feature will remain west of the KILX CWA until close to dawn. Cold front will quickly progress across central Illinois on Monday, bringing scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. The showers will push into Indiana during the afternoon, followed by breezy and cooler conditions. High pressure will build into the region Monday night, resulting in clear skies and much lighter winds with overnight lows bottoming out in the 40s.
A cold front will also approach the area towards the end of this TAF period leading to a northerly wind shift early tomorrow morning. James A cold front will be pushing into the region early Monday as an upper trough pushes across the central US. Winds will be on the breezy side initially but will lower through the day as surface ridging sets up over the FA. Highs will be noticeably cooler Monday, 70s vs 90s and even around 100 tomorrow.
Temperatures are in the lower 80s and dewpoints are in the mid 70s. The low-level streamlines are weakly confluent, with the ridge across the Straits and broad cyclonic flow pressing east through the Gulf of Mexico. The mean- layer ridge will retrograde to the west today and tonight, supporting the development of a small anticyclone over the Gulf of Mexico.