Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Current air/road temperatures suggest mainly rain within and west of the valley, with freezing rain east of the valley. With that said, had a situation here at the office in Grand Forks where the rain occurred with air temperature above freezing while road temperatures where below freezing. Short waves continue to roll over the upper ridge over western North America and drop into the Northern Plains. Next upper level trough over the eastern Pacific will approach the forecast area on Fri. Long wave pattern maintains a long wave ridge over the eastern Pacific or the West Coast. Long wave trough remains over eastern Canada and the northeast US. Windy with IFR/MVFR conditions, and possibly freezing drizzle or very light snow.
High pressure will remain over the region for the next several days with continued dry weather.
So lowered the temps inland a bit with forecast lows now dipping into the upper 30s in traditionally cooler spots inland during this kind of event. /issued 554 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017/ High pressure is settling in behind last nights cold front. /issued 413 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017/ Latest WPC surface analysis shows the center of a well defined low pressure system over Maine, with a cold front extending south southwest, draped across the far tip of South Florida. Minimum temperatures are on track to plummet into the low 40s near Lake Okeechobee this morning, to around 50 along the east coast metro.
630 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017 High pressure and reinforcing cold air will be moving into the region today.
500 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017 Lgt s-sw winds across nw half of area early this am as an upper ridge quickly moves east of the area. Another in a series of dry cold fronts will enter se OK this eve and will help keep temps in the 30s, although tempered by overnight mixing of these shifting winds and presence of gradually increasing upper lvl clouds.
Low pressure advancing from Minneapolis to Fort Wayne today and to New York City by tomorrow morning will drag a cold front through southern Indiana and central Kentucky this evening. Winds will pick up as the compact cyclone moves by this afternoon and early evening. The front itself should be dry, other than perhaps a few sprinkles from around Madison to Carlisle, thanks to high pressure blocking the Gulf and most of the precipitation staying to our north closer to the low. After a breezy night tonight with lows around 30, weak high pressure building in will provide us with much lighter winds Thursday with high temperatures only in the mid 30s to around 40.
Have held off on an advisory for now with mdls suggesting winds diminishing slightly as the low moves sewd. Have trended aoa warmer guidance for the entire CWA given the very strong WAA and later arrival of the cdfnt. Going forecast may still not be warm enuf given some guidance, like the RAP, suggesting warmer temps. The low RH values coupled with the strong winds and dry fuels will result in a heightened fire danger thru this afternoon. A positively tilted upper level trough will approach our region Thursday night from the northern Plains.
Wednesday will provide another day of mild weather before a cold front brings breezy and colder weather on Thursday.
Southwest flow and bump in moisture means low temps stay above freezing for most tonight, with the exception being areas north of Highway 84 where temps could dip to around freezing.
As a cold front approaches today, southwest winds will increase and become gusty. Today Through Thursday Night High pressure remains over Arkansas and the dry conditions will remain over the state through Thursday. A cold front will move through the state this afternoon and evening as low pressure moves through the midwest. This will bring increased southwest winds to the state and expect the highest winds in the east.
402 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017 An upper level trough that dove into the southeastern conus yesterday will gradually lift east over the next couple days. Continental airmass thats already in place from cold front that moved through yesterday will be slow to modify.
1017 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017 A dry cold front pushed through the Florida Keys last night, featuring a thin and broken line of light showers, freshening northwest breezes, and dropping dewpoints through the 50s. However, early this morning a density surge spilled south and southwest from the cooler, drier Florida Peninsula. Since then, the surge has spread west through the Lower Keys, where temperatures have remained steady between 62 and 64 degrees. The surge persists from Molasses Reef through the Lower Keys, so we have retained most of the Small Craft Advisory. From synopsis, a short- lived wind surge spilling southwest from the cooler Florida mainland will last until early afternoon. An area of high pressure will move eastward across the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, and linger over the Florida Peninsula tonight and Thursday.
A few stronger gusts remain possible south over the higher terrain and east near better gradient forcing. Will also maintain the mention for patchy freezing rain northeast. Wind advisory and patchy light freezing drizzle and/or light snow highlights the today period. Essentially once the stratus arrives, expecting it to linger for the day along and east of a line from Williston to Bismarck, which seems to line up along the low level baroclinic zone. Cooler today with highs in the 30s.
The surface winds will drop off near 14/00Z and during the overnight shift to the West and Northwest with passage of a cold front. /issued 500 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017/ Lgt s-sw winds across nw half of area early this am as an upper ridge quickly moves east of the area. Another in a series of dry cold fronts will enter se OK this eve and will help keep temps in the 30s, although tempered by overnight mixing of these shifting winds and presence of gradually increasing upper lvl clouds.
This southerly flow will allow a brief return in low 50s daytime highs mainly over NW AL where 'slightly warmer' air will be able to advect northwest quicker than the eastern half of the forecast area. Temperatures should then fall close to freezing tonight underneath a clear sky and diminished winds as the lagging cold front finally arrives early on Thursday morning. After the front arrives, cooler air looks to slowly advect southward during the day. Meanwhile, an elongated longwave trough formed from the merging of sheared mid-level troughs within the southern flank of the polar jet over the Intermountain West, and another one within the subtropical jet, will move towards the MS River on Thursday.
Near the surface, a cold front is pushing southward into northwest and north central Kansas. By sunrise, a cold front should be making its way south across western Kansas.
Today Through Thursday Night High pressure remains over Arkansas and the dry conditions will remain over the state through Thursday. A cold front will move through the state this afternoon and evening as low pressure moves through the midwest. This will bring increased southwest winds to the state and expect the highest winds in the east.
The warmer readings were in the west where winds have started to pick up from the southwest. Clipper system will dive from Minnesota into the Lower Great Lakes this period bringing to the Midsouth strong gusty southwest winds ahead of another dry cold front.
404 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017 Deep upper low moving into the Upper Midwest this morning on the surface map. so expect some of the higher gusts from mid morning to early afternoon, once the inversion breaks. A cold front moving through Central IL will bring a round of sprinkles/flurries today before clearing the area after sunset. Whereas clouds tonight will help to keep the lows in the 20s, tomorrows high temps will be about a 10-15 degree departure from todays. Cold air in place for Thursday keeps the high temps just below freezing.
255 AM PST Wed Dec 13 2017 High pressure will continue to bring dry conditions along with valley inversions, cold nights, and light winds for the next few days, with localized air quality issues possible in urban valleys.
401 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017 Wind advisory and patchy light freezing drizzle and/or light snow highlights the today period. Essentially once the stratus arrives, expecting it to linger for the day along and east of a line from Williston to Bismarck, which seems to line up along the low level baroclinic zone. Cooler today with highs in the 30s.
A strong upper level ridge continues to dominate the weather pattern over the west coast states. Over the Medford CWA, this has resulted in very dry conditions with warm temperatures and breezy winds over the ridges. Over the west side valleys, inversions are making for cooler conditions with little or no winds, along with areas of low clouds and fog/freezing fog.
High pressure will prevail across the region through the week as temperatures continue to run above normal with highs mostly in the 70s. The Desert Southwest remains under the influence of a longwave ridge and positive height anomalies, a far contrast from the trough and arctic air gripping much of the central and northeast states. Above normal temperatures will prevail along with occasional high clouds lifting north and eastward associated with a persistent area of low pressure in the eastern Pacific.
Winds will subside as the day progresses as the center of the arctic anticyclone gets closer. A strong PV max, located over Alberta Canada this morning, will drop southeast across the Plains over the next 24 to 48 hours on the western fringe of the broad trough over the north central and northeast CONUS.
Models show arctic high pressure will keep hold of the weather across our region through mid week. Models show the high will be centered over the PAH forecast area at 18z Tuesday, sliding east of our region Tuesday night.
The High Wind Warning and Wind Chill Advisory have expired. Since temperatures are below freezing over most of this area, think more icy conditions could occur, although accumulations will be on the light side. The High Wind Warning and Wind Chill Advisory will both remain intact. The lower clouds should erode from north to south thereafter. Expect the main forms of precip will be freezing rain and sleet due to an elevated warm layer. Latest model guidance is showing high winds through Guadalupe Pass lasting until around mid morning so have extended the High Wind Warning for the Pass until 15z. Temperatures today are expected to remain below freezing for areas along and east of the higher terrain with highs only in the 20s across the Permian Basin. Areas to the west and south will warm up above freezing on Tuesday.
Models generate warmer temperatures than does MOS for the overnight, with similar wind speeds through the overnight. Light and variable winds this morning will gradually become southeast at around 10 knots after 21z Monday as an area of high pressure at the surface crosses western Kansas.
As a result, the low-level winds over NY/PA will begin to back once again into the W and SW. Light lake effect snow showers will diminish Tuesday night as a small area of high pressure noses into NY and PA.
Farther to the west and north, visible satellite reveals a mass of low/mid-level clouds along our approaching cold front, approaching our offshore gulf waters as it moves eastward at 15 knots. Winds are light and variable on and offshore at the present moment, but the Pulley Ridge Buoy in the southeastern gulf has risen from 1 ft to 3 ft in an hour. with increasing clouds/rain chances/wind near sunset through tonight, as a cold front approaches the Florida Keys and lingers near or south of the Florida Straits tomorrow. Pleasant marine conditions today will be short-lived as a cold front approaches the island chain tonight.
Min temps warmer than this morning with more clouds. As a result, the low-level winds over NY/PA will begin to back once again into the W and SW. Light lake effect snow showers will diminish Tuesday night as a small area of high pressure noses into NY and PA.
Dry conditions with warmer than normal daytime temperatures continuing this week. We'll continue to see some flavor of ridge near the west coast dominate our weather this week. The ridge will dirty up with mid and high level moisture at times, but remain dry in lower levels. The ridge axis will wander back in from the west the second half of the week with temperatures pushing 14 or 15 degrees above average.
602 AM EST Mon Jan 1 2018 Canadian high pressure will build toward the region through Tuesday.
634 AM EST Mon Jan 1 2018 Temperatures are in the single digits and teens across the area this morning with wind chills below zero across the higher elevations. For this reason, do not expect any additional accumulation except for maybe a dusting at most across the higher terrain. Chattanooga Airport, TN 26 10 30 15 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 23 5 27 11 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 25 5 26 11 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 20 2 24 7 / 10 0 0 0 NC.
Ample sunshine will occur today however with the incoming high pressure and continued northwest winds, dont expect temps to rise much above the low teens. Have gone slightly warmer in the Joplin down to Branson areas.
Temps below 5500 feet were in the low single digits or were below zero. However, I cannot rule out a few snow flakes across the higher elevations of the Pikes Peak region and northern El Paso county. It will also drag a cold front across the plains during the early morning hours, with the sfc winds from a predominantly NW direction by sunrise tomorrow. One aspect of the forecast that stood out was the low temps Wed morning in the San Luis Valley (SLV). A cold front will cross the plains late tonight and winds are expected to take on a NW component at KCOS and KPUB towards sunrise tomorrow morning.
Water vapor loop indicated a short wave trough off the BC coast. Short wave trough will move through the area Tue and produce very light snow. Upper level jet forecast to shift east of the area by Fri as upper level ridge over western North America shifts east and flattens. ECMWF was slower shifting trough to the east.
Tuesday, another well-defined potential vorticity anomaly races into eastern ND as upper ridge builds over the western CONUS. Temperatures will be much warmer with best confidence over northeast WY and western SD downslope areas.
An amplifying upper ridge will begin to unfold across the western U. Keeping in mind factors such as the low sun angle this time of year, as well as the snow pack in place, it will take some time to see much improvement. As the upper ridge remains in place over the western U.
Dry air has also advected into the low levels of the atmosphere on the back of 40 knot winds at 850mb.
Issued NPW for freezing temperatures for the NRN counties and Webb/Duval until 18z today (supported by high SREF probabilities of freezing), and again for all of the CWA for 01z-18z Tuesday.
1006 AM EST Mon Jan 1 2018 Canadian high pressure will build toward the region through Tuesday.
As the ridge slides eastward this afternoon, wind over the Northland will back westerly ushering in some warmer temperatures and pushing the Arctic airmass eastward toward Quebec and New England. A cold front also moves through the region ushering in the next round of Arctic air.
Dangerous cold to persist through tonight, as Arctic high pressure slides to our south.
MVFR cigs out over Lake Michigan with the cold west winds over the warmer lake. The sprawling area of high pressure over the Northern and Central Plains will drop into the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valley late tonight. As a result, southern Wisconsin will remain in a pressure gradient on the north side of the high as surface winds become more southwesterly. Forecast confidence is medium to high: A trough of low pressure will approach on Tuesday, moving through Tuesday night. and then only saturate for a few hours in the lower/mid levels. Despite the likelihood of flurries, kept precip chances on the low end given the uncertainty of any measurable snowfall.
411 AM CST Mon Jan 1 2018 Affects from the 1050+ MB Alberta/Arctic high pressure has filtered into middle Tennessee.
Went ahead with a Freezing Fog Advisory to cover this fog through 9 AM today. Looking at warmer temperatures returning to the Panhandle as early as Tuesday, but given the snowpack out there, Tuesday should still be cold.
High pressure will keep dry weather and above normal temepratures over the area through Tuesday.
Through the end of the week the synoptic pattern depicts a broad trough east and a building ridge over the Rockies, keeping cold air outbreaks further east and bringing near normal temperatures to western and portions of central North Dakota Strong high pressure in western North Dakota will promote Skc and light winds through the taf period.
Quiet but cold conditions are expected to persist well into the period, as a highly amplified longwave trough remains over the eastern portion North America. A couple of impulses are expected to rotate through the trough.
Cold front will continue to sink South this morning as a coastal trough intensifies.
Above the arctic air, the foothills are expected to be in the 30s with lower 40s possible in the warmer locations. As far as accumulations go, the mountains could pick up a couple inches while the lower elevation should see a skiff at most. Weak positive forcing generated by this feature could produce a few snow flurries or light snow showers on the Palmer Divide and over the higher central mtns early. Temperatures on Tuesday will be slow to warm, but with plenty of sunshine and drier air by afternoon, high temps on the plains should end up 12 to 16 degs F warmer than those Monday.
Why? The stubborn area of high pressure to our west and the deep trough to our east aren't moving much. The only saving grace is at least we're not freezing like they are out east.
Strong northerly winds will gradually decrease through the afternoon and evening hours as high pressure continues settling in across the area.
With low-level warm air advection today areas will see warmer highs compared to yesterday. Somewhat milder Pacific air will spread east Tuesday ahead of another arctic cold front that will cross the area Tuesday night.
Winds shift to the south on the backside of the high tonight.
Continued cold air advection through the day will allow afternoon highs to top out only in the low to mid 30's. Over the coastal waters the gale warning will be reduced to a small craft advisory across the nearshore waters at 10 AM and the low water advisory will expire at the same time.
Arctic high pressure is currently stretched from the Dakotas toward Missouri, and the coldest temperatures overnight were observed under the high. The high pressure area will drift southeast today. With the center of the high remaining to our west and eventually to our south, we'll have a 5-10 MPH wind which with temperatures starting off in the teens below zero, will push wind chills in the -25 to -40 degree range through the morning hours. Plentiful sunshine is expected again today, and slightly warmer air will advect in as the core of the cold pushes east over the Great Lakes. We will see temperatures warm into the low teens ahead of this system tomorrow. Meanwhile, a ridge building across the western CONUS will eventually make a push toward our area.
Areas of low clouds and freezing fog will also remain across portions of southeast New Mexico this morning before dissipating during the late morning early afternoon.
An upper level disturbance moving across the Big Bend region could impact KSOA and KJCT later this morning resulting in a brief period of freezing rain or sleet. /issued 504 AM CST Mon Jan 1 2018/ (Today and Tonight) Temperatures early this morning ranged from the lower teens in the Big Country to the mid to upper teens across the rest of the area. Thus, will include a slight chance of a mix of sleet and freezing rain with the bulk of this activity moving off to the south and east of the CWA by the early afternoon.
521 AM CST Mon Jan 1 2018 Arctic high pressure is centered over northwest South Dakota, which is leaving the far east with just enough of a gradient to keep us mixed, and northwest low level flow over the warmer lakes is also resulting in flurries and stratus, mainly near the Pierre to Chamberlain areas. With a ridge axis overhead, we can anticipate another night with favorable radiational conditions and readings again falling into the teens to 20s below. Not much moisture given the airmass overhead, however did upgrade the low pops/flurries mention to more 20-40% pops but with no accumulation.
318 AM MST Mon Jan 1 2018 High pressure will prevail across the region through the week as temperatures continue to run above normal with highs mostly in the 70s. The Desert Southwest remains under the influence of a longwave ridge and positive height anomalies, a far contrast from the trough and arctic air gripping much of the central and northeast states. Above normal temperatures will prevail along with occasional high clouds lifting north and eastward associated with a persistent area of low pressure in the eastern Pacific.
948 AM EST Mon Jan 1 2018 Canadian high pressure will maintain very cold conditions through the week.
554 AM CST Mon Jan 1 2018 Bitter cold this morning with dangerous wind chills across the entire region as arctic high pressure dominates over the Heartland.
504 AM CST Mon Jan 1 2018 (Today and Tonight) Temperatures early this morning ranged from the lower teens in the Big Country to the mid to upper teens across the rest of the area. Thus, will include a slight chance of a mix of sleet and freezing rain with the bulk of this activity moving off to the south and east of the CWA by the early afternoon.
Dry conditions with warmer than normal daytime temperatures continuing this week. Given mostly sunny skies today and the proximity of the high pressure ridge axis just west of us over California have adjusted daytime highs upward a couple of degrees today. Readings are expected to be down a few degrees on Tuesday as the ridge becomes more amplified along the west coast and increased high cloud cover moves across the forecast area.
/issued 436 AM CST Mon Jan 1 2018/ 10Z / 4 AM surface analysis showed the center of a 1050 mb Arctic high pressure ridge centered near Omaha. The cold front that represented the leading edge of this Arctic airmass had passed through most of the Gulf of Mexico. The surface pressure ridge will expand eastward today, lowering the central pressure, and will reach the I-70 corridor of MO by sunrise Tuesday.
Cloud cover may erode somewhat by this afternoon, especially across the northern portion of the forecast area, as the short- wave shifts east and ridging builds in from the west. The high temperature forecast for today reflects this with milder temperatures expected, particularly across the northern Sacramento Valley.
Tuesday an upper trough is expected to sweep across the Panhandles, but this will only result in cloudy conditions.
Ridging over the region will bring fairly quiet weather to the area through the work week. Models continue to indicate a break down of the ridge with a system moving through the region sometime over the weekend, although there continues to be timing and placement differences.
402 AM MST Mon Jan 1 2018 High pressure remains the dominant weather feature that is forecast for the Northern Rockies through Tuesday night. Anticipate valley temperature inversions, patchy morning/overnight freezing fog, and low stratus developing during this time.
/Today through Tonight/ Large 1050 mb Arctic high pressure system is stretched across much of the mid to upper Missouri River basin this morning. The Arctic high pressure will remain entrenched across Iowa through tonight as it gradually settles south. Very weak warm advection may arrive by late tonight as the high pressure center settles into northern Missouri and very light southwest winds develop.