Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Heights aloft will build across the region today as strong ridging intensifies over the West Coast. We will see periods of mid and high clouds as moisture spills over the ridge. With the warmer temperatures, snow melt will increase over the lower elevations.
Winds are light from the south/southwest over the bulk of the service area, variable still over the Gulf waters well north of the Lower Keys. The cold front will slowly drop southward tonight and Saturday, then remain aligned in or very near the Straits of Florida for the duration of the weekend as waves of low pressure translate along it east-bound.
Western upper level ridge will gradually shift east but Dakotas will remain on the eastern edge with fast north- northwest flow aloft continuing.
327 PM CST Fri Jan 27 2017 H5 analysis from earlier this morning has a broad trough of low pressure across the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS. A positive tilted trough of low pressure extended from the mid Mississippi valley west southwest to Baja California. West of this feature, ridging extended up the west coast into southwestern Canada. falls noted over the lower Ohio valley. The forecast area was situated between high pressure across the central Rockies with low pressure located over Quebec. Saturday will be similar today with northwest winds and similar 850mb temperatures so have decided to go warmer than models are projecting for highs by a few degrees, as models were a little cool for highs today.
310 PM EST Fri Jan 27 2017 Low pressure will remain stalled over Labrador through tonight. Weak high pressure will build over the area Saturday.
/issued 952 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2017/ The cold front continues to linger over central and southwest Florida producing a predominant broken layer of clouds around 3-5k feet. With this cloudiness and the fact that we will be on the north side of the cold front, temperatures will not warm too much today. Areas of MVFR/local IFR conditions will continue in the vicinity of the cold front over southwest Florida early this morning, otherwise any ceilings should be above 3000 feet and therefore VFR conditions should prevail. As the cold front shifts south, a predominant northwest through northeast wind around 15 knots will prevail through the weekend.
Despite cloud cover, expect all areas to fall below freezing overnight due to continued cold air advection. A brief warm-up on Saturday as low level flow becomes southwest ahead of an approaching s/wv trof. Should see more sunshine on Saturday as the high clouds shift southward into the northern Gulf of Mexico and the air mass below 850mb remains relatively dry.
Currently, under a sunny sky, temperatures are warming through the 20s into the lower 30s in some areas. Despite temperatures around, or perhaps slightly above freezing, several webcams across the central part of the state and along the interstate 90 corridor showing blowing snow phenomena. And, there is still some potential for freezing drizzle on Saturday where mid-level saturation/cooling is insufficient to support snow p-type, so continued the freezing drizzle mention. Snow accums that shook out in the forecast were generally less than an inch, and the freezing drizzle actually generated a hundredth of ice accum in the ice accum grids.
An upper level ridge will remain over the Pacific Northwest through Saturday, bringing more sunshine and and mild days to Western Washington.
A broad upper-level trough over the Great Lakes region continues to push east, with the tail end of a strong zonal jet along its southern periphery remaining over the local area through the near term. At the surface, a large area of high pressure extending from the intermountain west into Texas and the lower Mississippi River Valley continues to build southeast, reinforcing high pressure over the local area. With this pattern, can expect a mix of high clouds and sunshine Friday afternoon, with temperatures slightly cooler than seasonal. Highs are only expected to reach the low 50's inland to upper 50's near the coast.
458 PM EST Fri Jan 27 2017 Late this afternoon through Saturday: Latest surface analysis shows a weak cold front pushing south over the southern tip of the peninsula into the Florida Straits. Temperatures in portions of the northern interior are already down into the lower 70s. On Saturday, a cooler and drier airmass will filter down the Florida peninsula from the north.
Surface analysis this afternoon places a 1030 mb ridge of high pressure over the Southern Plains and portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, Water Vapor satellite trends show a longwave trough axis stretching from Quebec back through the Southwest United States. Mainly dry weather is expected to persist across the Mid-South through Saturday night with a weak upper level trough in place.
Little to no impact expected with surface temperatures residing at the freezing mark or a couple of degrees below. With a broad upper level trough now in place over North America east of the Rockies, expect a much more winter-like pattern during the upcoming forecast period. With the area embedded within northwest flow regime within this upper trough, cold air will be free to spill into the Great Lakes from Canada during this entire 7 day forecast.
318 PM CST Fri Jan 27 2017 An elongated upper trough was located at mid afternoon from an upper low just north of Maine all the way into the Southern Plains. A rather progressive flow aloft will begin to amplify a bit as an upper low tries to form over Mexico.
Strong high pressure aloft along the west coast will expand east across the Great Basin this weekend. A high amplitude ridge is building over the west coast this morning, with conditions generally becoming drier and more stable across Utah and southwest Wyoming on the eastern edge of this high pressure.
/Issued 422 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2017/ Canadian high pressure will remain over the CWA through Saturday keeping us dry through the short term.
1224 PM EST Fri Jan 27 2017 A series of troughs will move across the Great Lakes this weekend.
High pressure remains centered along the Pacific northwest coast, leaving western Montana and central Idaho in a northerly flow aloft.
Lows are expected back down into the 40s(F) tonight with little change likely to the air mass across the high plains. At the same time, an upper level trough will be digging into the western states.
357 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016 A dry cold front is forecast to move across the forecast area this afternoon and evening. Cooler temperatures can be expected tonight and Sunday.
Tomorrow, high pressure builds in from the north. RH values are forecast to drop into the low to mid 30s, mainly in the western Lake region and interior Collier county.
That said, the continued advection of cold air has resulted in near freezing temperatures along the highway 14 corridor. Sunday looks dry and mostly sunny with a weak wave east of the area moving further east, and ridging bringing mostly clear skies with a few daytime cumulus as indicated on model BUFKIT soundings.
A quick moving cold front will sweep across central Indiana early this morning. allowing much cooler canadian air to arrive in central Indiana on northwesterly winds. High pressure will settle across the southern plains on sunday.
Most areas now in the upper 20s with the typical cold areas in the low 20s. expect a slightly warmer airmass but weaker winds. Areas east of the valley look to have the best chance for temperatures below freezing once again (and in collaborating with neighboring offices will issue a freeze warning for this area). Areas along and west of the valley should be in the low to mid 30s (will allow the next shift to assess the situation for a possible frost advisory).
437 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016 Moist air was being replaced by cool and dry surface ridging behind a cold front currently moving through the region. This will continue to advect in cooler and drier air near the surface through the day. The upper ridge over the area will flatten today and tonight in response to a closed low moving onshore in Oregon. And that begins with a series of ripples over the flattened ridge Sunday and Sunday night expected to lead to decent shower and thunder chances as moist isentropic lift develops.
Upper level trough/cold front that brought the rains of yesterday have exited east, taking the rain with it. Surface pressure gradient also goes slack as high pressure starts to influence from the west. While a freeze continues to look likely for parts of northern/central WI, some question whether there will be enough near sfc moisture to support widespread frost formation despite expected lows mostly in the low to mid 30s.
230 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016 A rather strong, but at this point, dry cold front is passing through the southern portion of the forecast area early this morning. North winds have become rather gusty for a time behind the front, as Canadian high pressure builds in from the northern Plains. Precipitation chances will then start to increase later Sunday into Sunday night, as lift increases in association with a warm front, which will slowly lift north toward the area. Precipitation should begin in the form of light and widely scattered showers, as there will initially be a fairly stout layer of dry air that will need to be overcome in the lower levels of the atmosphere.
251 AM MDT SAT MAY 14 2016 The latest upper analysis shows a broad upper low over Ontario with an upper ridge over the western CONUS. The early morning sfc charts show high pressure centered over northeastern Wyoming and western South Dakota. Temperatures have fallen into the lower 20s over parts of northeastern Wyoming and into the upper 20s to lower 30s western South Dakota. Temperatures today will be warmer than yesterday but high temps will still be 10 to 15F below average. Sunday will a few degrees warmer than today yet still cooler than average.
656 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016 A strengthening low pressure system moving northeast across the Great Lakes today will cause unseasonably cool temperatures with brisk northwest winds and a chance of showers across our area. High pressure will move east across the Ohio Valley tonight and Sunday providing dry conditions. Weak WAA expected to dvlp Sunday as low level thermal trof moves to the NErn CONUS. This and more sunshine should result in slightly warmer highs in the generally in the l-m50s.
257 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016 A strong cold front is making good southward progress across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with a much drier and cooler airmass following it. The advertised late weekend widespread precipitation potential, associated with a northward lifting warm front, continues its recent slowing trend, with the onset of heaviest rain and the most widespread coverage looking likely to hold off until Sunday afternoon and evening. Temperatures Sunday will remain well below normal and likely even a few degrees cooler than on Saturday, owing to the daytime increase in rainfall.
528 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016 A cold front moved through the region last night, bringing a much cooler and drier air mass into MO/IL. A ridge of high pressure will continue building into the plains today, bringing quiet wx conditions to the region. Highs on Sunday should be about 10 degrees warmer than they will have been on Saturday.
An upper level low will move across Oregon today producing a deep marine push, some showers and maybe a few thunderstorms across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington. Saturday and Sunday will be noticeably cooler and showery as the upper low moves over the area.
Upper low is nudging into the Pacific NW and NorCal coastline early this morning. As the low gradually tracks eastward today, the HRRR model indicates that showers will move over the Coastal Range crest between 11 am and noon into our CWA. In addition to showers, the low will bring a cooling trend as the Delta Breeze carries cooler air into the Central Valley. For Sunday, the low will still have some impact on our region with showers and possible thunderstorms along the Sierra. However, the center of the low will be to our east allowing for temperatures to warm up into the low 80s for the valley.
Latest surface analysis showed low pressure over southern Michigan with a strong cold front sweeping through central Indiana into southwest Kentucky. Behind the front, extensive strato-cu was noted on IR satellite with temperatures in the low 40s and winds gusting 20 to 30 kts. The anomalous upper trough overhead swinging through today (2 to 3 SD below normal) and steep low-level lapse rates will help to develop an extensive strato-cumulus deck by afternoon, especially across southern Indiana and northern/northeast Kentucky.
Further to the northwest, an upper level trough is quickly moving across the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. Current radar imagery indicates numerous showers across Indiana and Illinois ahead of the cold front associated with the upper level system. 9 inch range late this morning into early this afternoon ahead of the cold front. Models indicate a much more substantial cool down with 850 mb temperatures dropping to below freezing across much of the area by Sunday morning. Winds could gust at time to 30-35 mph, especially over the higher elevations this afternoon and evening. Some locations in the higher elevations could briefly touch the freezing mark.
A high pressure ridge will then shift east from the Pacific Northwest into Montana overnight into the day on Saturday, causing skies to become mostly clear. The next feature to impact the forecast area will be a low pressure area that will move slowly across the Pacific Northwest Saturday through Sunday.
101 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016 A seasonally modified arctic cold front will move southeast across the area tonight.
414 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016 A dry re-enforcing cold front will move through the region tonight.
A dry (but still warm) airmass will settle over the region today in the wake of Fridays cold front.
402 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016 cold front movg south across red river valley.
but mid-level fgen remains as weak transitory ridging expands from the west.
A very cool airmass will be behind this cdfnt as mrng lows on Sunday will be in the low/mid 40s, about 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of the year.
250 AM MST SAT MAY 14 2016 High pressure over the region is starting to weaken and shift eastward. This signals a change to slightly cooler temperatures and more breezy conditions for the weekend.
Have maintained forecast high temperatures in the low to mid 50s, roughly 15 to 20 degrees below normal for the date.
That in turn has allowed temperatures to fall to near the freezing mark at additional sites such as Stanley and Mandan. A small part of north central ND, including the Minot area, is still questionable as far as reaching freezing given an additional influx of clouds moving southward out of Canada. Given that weak upright instability and cyclonic flow, at least isolated showers are probable and we have therefore continued at least low- end chances of showers as far west as the Highway 83 corridor.
Cold high pressure will move over the region. Minimum temperatures will still fall below freezing tonight across the region and will leave the freeze warning going.
A cold front currently moving south through the Southern High Plains will become yet another focus for convection through the afternoon. Temperatures will be much cooler today with highs well below normal expected across much of the region. An uptick in showers and thunderstorms will occur across the higher terrain tonight and move east through the day Sunday.
405 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016 A cold front moved through the region last night, bringing a much cooler and drier air mass into MO/IL. A ridge of high pressure will continue building into the plains today, bringing quiet wx conditions to the region. Highs on Sunday should be about 10 degrees warmer than they will have been on Saturday.
252 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016 Cold front currently nearing Paducah Kentucky with sharply colder temps behind it. Temps tonight down in the upper 30's along the plateau and in the lower 40's elsewhere.
The main concern in the short term will be the freezing temperatures tonight along with some frost again Saturday night. A large upper level low pressure area off to our northeast in Canada will continue to funnel colder and drier air into our region through the entire short term. A short wave trough swinging southeast and across the far northeast cwa later Saturday afternoon and evening will bring some clouds along with some light rain showers to our northeast cwa. Sunday night should be mostly clear with light winds with lows in the lower 40s.
302 AM PDT SAT MAY 14 2016 The weekend temperatures will drop to normal as a low pressure system arrives with possible showers and breezy winds.
At the surface cold front had completely cleared the area with northerly winds of 20 to 30 mph across much of the area.
435 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016 Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected today across central New York and northeast Pennsylvania as a strong cold front sweeps across the region.
A secondary weak cold front will slide down to the coast late tonight and stall in relatively the same area as the previous front. Meanwhile, an upper level low over the Mountain West will move slowly to the southeast, then east through the week. A number of upper level disturbances will rotate around the upper level low, and across the region, to interact with the moist and unstable atmosphere to have the forecast area see a decent chance of showers and thunderstorms almost every day. However, as is the case with this scenario, the timing of each disturbance is problematic this far out, so the confidence in the timing of each event is on the low side.
1120 PM MDT FRI MAY 13 2016 An upper level ridge over the western U. There will be enough moisture to generate convection over the higher terrain Saturday afternoon. Enough moisture will remain over the eastern portion of the CWA on Sunday with specific humidities in the realm of 5 to 6 g/kg for showers and storms to develop over the higher terrain and areas along the divide. Some drier air will work into the western portion of the CWA (eastern Utah and extreme western Colorado) Sunday afternoon with southwest flow increasing for some breezy conditions and potential fire weather concerns for portions of southeast Utah and southwest Colorado where the higher winds and lower relative humidity will be.
/issued 302 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016/ Mid level ridge axis will remain to our west with the area underneath northwesterly flow aloft. Surging high pressure to the north will help swing the winds back to the southeast beginning tonight. HRRR shows isolated showers with the seabreeze shifting into the upper Valley but in reality the seabreeze is weak and holding in the lower Valley. models continue to indicate a weak h5 ridge passing overhead during the afternoon, with a hint of an embedded impulse.
Aloft, a deep upper level low is pivoting just north of Lake Superior, with a stout short wave trough shifting into the Ohio Valley. Plenty of shower activity is occurring along and ahead of the cold front, currently affecting much of southeast Indiana and western Ohio. The cold front will plow through eastern Kentucky this morning, with scattered to numerous showers breaking out across the area. Highs will generally range from the upper 50s in the north, to the lower 60s in the south. Ridgetops will be cooler, with Black Mountain likely getting down to below freezing by Sunday morning.
348 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016 A cold front crossing the region will result in area wide showers this morning and breezy, much cooler, and unsettled weather throughout weekend. However, given the fact that surface temperatures will be above freezing and the ground is very warm, no accumulation will be anticipated. With steep lapse rates, this will likely mean freezing temperatures on the ridgetops, particularly in Tucker and Garrett County. In coordination with neighboring offices, no headlines were issued for this, however some freezing temperatures in the higher terrain seem quite plausible. For areas north of I 80 and in the ridges, critical thicknesses and model soundings indicate a few snow showers are also possible Saturday night into Sunday as 850mb temperatures drop to -5 to -6 celsius.
Stalling cold front to our north will act as a better focus for scattered convection that will send remnant outflow boundaries towards our region Sunday afternoon. A bit more total column moisture on Sunday will lead to more cloud cover which may be enough of a filter to keep temperatures slightly cooler, plus any rain cooled areas.
High pressure will continue to be in place today and this should keep us rain free today. Cooler temperatures start off this morning as lows across the northern areas dipped into the mid to upper 50's.
After near record highs this afternoon and calculated heat indices over 105 degrees, temperatures will fall to the low to mid 70s overnight. The Atlantic ridge axis is across south FL.
Surface heating has resulted in scattered shower and thunderstorm development along the highest elevations.
Then expect at least some chance for showers or storms to continue into the overnight if sea breeze activity can spread northward, aided by southerly flow around a low pressure system to our west.
There is little change in forecast thinking as high pressure aloft continues to promote hot and dry conditions across NW California.
High pressure over the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota will keep that area on the cooler side.
/issued 226 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020/ The FA is currently sandwiched between a trough over the Great Lakes region and a ridge over western CONUS. The ridge to our west is bringing NW flow aloft to the FA. It looks like temperatures will be seasonable and the weather will be pretty quiet overall from mid to late week as a broad, but not overly strong, upper-level ridge extends eastward from the Desert SW into the Southern Plains. However, a continuing weakness in the northeast flank of the ridge with modest NW flow may steer convective activity developing across NE NM Wed afternoon southeast through the evening hours, and possibly into the far southwest TX Panhandle and NW South Plains before dissipating Wednesday night.
935 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2020 Upper low is centered near the Straits of Mackinac, with a vort lobe swinging through NE Illinois at this hour. Surface cold front has pushed east of the forecast area this afternoon. As expected, temperatures have warmed back into the upper 70s to the lower 80s across the region. For Wednesday, we'll be within the base of an upper level trough axis. Highs will range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s region wide. Issued at 250 PM Tue Jun 23 2020 A 5H closed low over the Great Lakes will slowly meander northward from midweek through the weekend. By Wednesday night, the upper level trough axis will lie N-S over the Ohio Valley with high pressure building in the lower level.
Highs will climb into the lower to middle 80s with northwest winds around 5-10 kts. The deterministic models show reasonable agreement with respect to the H5 pattern, depicting a persistent low/vortex over eastern Canada, and a developing trof over west Canada and the Pacific NW. The low confidence part of the forecast is with timing and placement of PoPs. With ridges strong over the Gulf, and developing from the Upper Midwest into central Canada, we will see a weak unsettled flow regime that will have moisture and instability to work with, to generate showers and storms, most likely diurnally enhanced, with less coverage at night.
A broad upper-trough will remain the dominant weather feature across the Eastern CONUS during the middle of the week.