Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1246 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Strong high pressure continues over the eastern half of Arkansas. The cold front has stalled across eastern and central Arkansas with west and northwest winds across much of the state. Latest satellite trends indicate the complex was decaying as evident via warmer cloud tops all along this line. Temperatures in northwest and northern AR will top out in the lower to middle 80s, while central portions of the state will top out in the lower to middle 90s, and southern third of the state will top out in the middle to upper 90s. On Saturday, high pressure aloft will remain situated over the state sandwiched between zonal flow to the north and a closed upper low over the Gulf of Mexico. Rain chances diminish as the cold front washes out over northern AR.
The short term forecast remains dry, with temperatures warmer than those usual for mid September. Comparing current temperatures to temperatures yesterday, at this time, it's clear: cooler air has moved into West Central Texas. Thus, lows tonight should be a little cooler than lows this morning. As for highs Saturday, numbers close to guidance, but warmer than usual mid September highs, look reasonable. Dry and Hot then Possible Rain and Cooler. Other than minor temperature adjustments, the forecast continues with temperatures warmer than those usual for mid September, through at least mid week.
Tonight, upper trough moves across MT/ND dragging a weak trough into the CWA along with some clouds.
209 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 A weak cold front is moving through the PAH forecast area this afternoon with little fanfare. This will be followed by an upper level ridge gradually building over our region the rest of the weekend. Much drier air will filter in behind the cold front tonight, with dew points by Saturday afternoon in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Temperatures will also be several degrees "cooler", but still a few degrees above seasonal normals.
Much like last weekend a ridge will build over the southcentral U. Trended toward a small chance of showers and storms toward the end of the work week as models show the upper ridge either breaking down or sliding east.
The models all show a short wave trough sliding along the ND/Canadian border tonight into Saturday with a weak surface boundary extending south into our region and moving east through Saturday. Therefore, skies should be mostly sunny on Saturday with much warmer conditions. Highs will be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. The increasingly amplifying ridge across the center of the country will extend dry conditions and lead to building heat through the first half of the week.
The storm threat will continue through the early evening as a cold front approaches from the west. Temperatures will fall back to near seasonable on Saturday in the wake of the cold front. Then, temperatures will warm back to above normal as high pressure sets up over the area.
Hi res guidance suggesting some isolated thundershowers possible, and given proximity of the mid/upper low, as well as being on the periphery of the ridge, felt it was warranted to at least add low end PoPs for the afternoon. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine now centered over the central Bahamas. Satellite imagery depicting mostly clear skies inland, with temperatures generally in the low 70s.
Aloft, the upper air pattern is mainly transitioning to a quasi- zonal flow pattern as the upper trough lifts into the Great Lakes region. Some mid to high cloud remains over southeastern and east central Kansas associated with this frontal system with the lower level cloud cover focused over northern Oklahoma into Missouri. Some mid to perhaps low level cloud cover returns within the WAA pattern as the lee trough deepens in response to zonal flow over the Rockies. Breezy conditions set up across the area tomorrow as mixing occurs and the lee trough remains across the area. Highs into the upper 80s with higher dewpoints make for a noticeable return to warmer feeling conditions. The upper flow pattern amplifies into a broader ridge pattern over the center portions of the CONUS.
The remainder of the low clouds have recently moved out of the region with just some sct to bkn high clouds remaining for all TAF sites. Highs today will be closer to normal for this time of year mainly due to cloud cover, cooler and moist upslope surface flow and chances for convection.
Temperatures today will be cooler then the last several days due to the cloud cover. A cold front will move through on Saturday, but make only scattered showers. The cold front will usher in many days of dry weather with temperatures at or above normal. The warm front tries to push through and turn the wind more southerly. The cold front will be losing it's upper support and potency at the same time as it runs into the stubborn cold wedge, killing off many of the showers, and making only isolated showers during the afternoon over the CWA.
232 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Strato-cu field continues to pivot around the upper low this afternoon as rather gusty northwest winds slowly subside. Surface winds will turn variable later this evening before surface ridging moves through and a more prevailing southwesterly flow returns.
It will also remain breezy/windy through the afternoon with cool high temperatures ranging from the lower 60s northeast to the lower 70s southwest. Upper low circulation continues to spin over the Grand Forks region early this morning, with clouds rotating southward across the CWA.
The air mass behind the front is cooler and drier than what has been experienced the last few days. Weather will be quiet through the remainder of the weekend into the first part of the week as the upper level ridge currently over the southeastern states begins to retrograde and amplify into the region. Afternoon heat index values will be in the low to mid 90s.
Breezy winds will diminish this evening and overnight as a more stable influence from high pressure returns.
Temperatures should be a bit warmer tonight given increasing boundary layer dew points and stronger winds.
Should start to see some isolated shra/tsra developing with the higher rain chances over the S-SW zones.
Sct showers and tstms to developing over the higher terrain mainly along and south of Interstate 40 by 18Z then spreading into the southeast plains with more isold activity along the central mt chain north of Interstate 40.
Subtropical ridge axis is centered over the Appalachians but broadly extending well westward through the lower Mississippi Valley & into the ArLaTex & southern Plains. In addition, synoptic & water vapor analysis indicates a westward propagating upper low over the central Gulf. /DC/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: Quasi-stationary deep layered ridge will remain fixated over northern MS through tonight. The highest values will be between 100 and 105 primarily over the ArkLaMiss Delta region where that area will remain outlooked with limited heat stress. The lower dewpoints will provide a pleasant, less humid evening tonight with lows eventually settling around 70.
Finally starting to see some appreciable erosion of the low stratus deck across the western half of the state. Expect this trend to continue as weak ridging builds in from the west. Current surface analysis places low over northern Minnesota, while upper level analysis places low over the Red River Valley with ridge building over western Montana. Temperatures will still be a bit below average, though quite a bit warmer than the past few days. Tonight, a short wave busting through the ridge will zip through northern portions of our area. A quiet weekend and start to the upcoming week is expected with broad upper level ridging over the area.
315 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Warm and humid conditions will be interrupted by showers and storms with a cold front later tonight. A quick update was issued to account for isolated showers developing in the warm sector of Great Lakes low pressure. That systems cold front will sweep the region tonight accompanied by more widespread convection. Activity will cease from west to east Saturday morning as high pressure begins to build back in.
1244 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 High pressure will remain over the region at the surface today, with relatively zonal flow aloft. Although convective coverage should increase as the low level jet picks up Saturday night, the amount of instability should diminish fairly rapidly after sunset.
The air mass over SE TX is very dry as evidenced by dew points in the mid/upper 60's so with clears skies and dry air in place, feel overnight lows will cool into the lower/mid 70's (immediate coast near 80) by sunrise Saturday. An upper level low over the western Gulf will gradually shift west through Saturday but SE TX will remain on the west and dry side of this feature through Saturday. As the upper low meanders west, an upper level elongate from west to east across the mid- south.
1239 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 A dissipating area of showers and thunderstorms were across the western half of the area early this morning, well ahead of a surface cold front, which extended from northeast Missouri into southeast Kansas. Drier air behind the front advects in with south central Missouri being last to see the cooler and drier air. Weak high pressure settles in tonight, with dew points in the 50s to near 60 and under mostly clear skies lows will be rather comfortable from the low to mid 60s.
Isolated showers and storms are currently popping up across the high terrain and will continue through the afternoon and into the evening. More showers and storms tomorrow as a weak cold front approaches during the afternoon but the best chances look to occur just after the end of this TAF period so no mention.
341 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Another hot day across the region with temperatures ranging from the low to mid 90s, though with a somewhat drier air mass currently in place, it doesn't feel too insufferable outside. Noted on water vapor imagery is the mid/upper low over the NE Gulf which has been slowly creeping westward.
Forecast Cooler and drier air is filtering into the area this afternoon. Temperatures will quickly fall through the 60s, with morning lows on Saturday expected to be in the low 50s.
Early and mid afternoon temperatures have soared into the mid 90s, with heat indices a few degrees warmer. More clouds and rain chances will result in slightly cooler conditions, with high temperatures in the lower 90s.
The surface dew points will climb into the lower and mid-60s. As a short wave trough approaches from the Northern Plains, the soundings show some weakening of this cap. Maybe an isolated tornado near the warm front.
1103 AM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019 A cold front will move through the region today producing breezy winds and light showers in the northern mountains.
Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 60s in the Hill Country to the lower/mid 70s along and east of the I-35 corridor. The forecast for Saturday is expected to remain dry and warm as an area of subsidence on the western edge of an upper low slowly moves in from the Gulf of Mexico. Prefer the warmer ECMWF guidance, which leads to highs in the 90s to near 100 for the region.
314 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Mid-level heights are rebounding today over the mid MO Valley in the wake of a strong synoptic cyclone lifting from MN into Ontario. In the low levels, midday surface analysis revealed a high centered over KS, which has temporarily displaced a moist and unstable boundary layer to our south across the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley. Considerable mid-level ridging is forecast over the north-central U.
303 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Upper level low pressure system was located over southwest Ontario and was moving to the northeast at 20-25 knots.
The ridge continues to flatten overnight and the flow becomes more zonal, albeit weak, as a weak upper trough continues to advance toward the forecast area. Having said that, coverage doesn't look too great with most areas only under a chance POP, except for some of the higher terrain where likely POPs are in place. High temperatures will be cooler tomorrow with the lowered heights and increased cloud cover with highs in the upper 80s to near 90. Saturday night a weakening front will have moved through the northern part of the forecast area from the north with widely scattered showers and storms expected ahead of it early across the lower elevations and scattered convection over the eastern mountains.
Broad high pressure sits aloft over the southeast with a pair of lows located southeast and southwest of Florida. At the surface, high pressure remains over the far northeastern part of the country, while Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine nears the Bahamas. This system is forecast to become a tropical cyclone at some point in the next day or so as it moves toward the Florida east coast. The ridge over the southeast is one of the key factors as far as track, as its strength will help determine if it moves westward into the Florida peninsula or starts to curve toward sea after being picked up by a trough. High pressure then builds back in for the rest of the week.
304 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Skies remain mostly sunny across the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures in the low to mid 90s. A weak cold front is moving through the Mid-South this afternoon. The cold front is expected to move out of the Mid-South tonight. Temperatures will turn a little cooler tonight with lows Saturday morning in the mid 60s to lower 70s. By Saturday, the cold front will have moved out and weakened leaving continued dry weather for the region. Temperatures will be a little cooler than today with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Weak high pressure will return to the region by Saturday night keeping dry weather with above normal temperatures for the remainder of the weekend.
1239 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 GOES water vapor showing center of deep closed low spinning northeast along the ND/MN. For today, the area will be under the influence of cooler/cyclonic flow under the closed low as it lifts slowly northeast into Canada. Clearing takes place this evening/overnight as the low pulls off and high pressure builds in. Saturday into Saturday night will see a mid-level trough/weak area of low pressure drop southeast from the Northern Plains into our area. Fairly impressive wing of warm air advection/isentropic lift and 850 moisture transport accompany the trough/low.
225 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Broad high pressure sits aloft over the southeast with a pair of lows located southeast and southwest of Florida. At the surface, high pressure remains over the far northeastern part of the country, while Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine nears the Bahamas. This system is forecast to become a tropical cyclone at some point in the next day or so as it moves toward the Florida east coast. The ridge over the southeast is one of the key factors as far as track, as its strength will help determine if it moves westward into the Florida peninsula or starts to curve toward sea after being picked up by a trough. High pressure then builds back in for the rest of the week.
256 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 An upper level ridge is situated over the area today and drier air has limited sea breeze storms to isolated coverage this afternoon. Tonight the ridge will shift to the west, and moisture will increase slightly. Will keep PoPs isolated on Saturday then increase to 30-50% on Saturday night over the water as an upper level low over the central Gulf of Mexico moves west. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than normal with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s inland.
107 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Upper level low pressure system has pushed into east central North Dakota early this morning. This will allow warmer temperatures to begin lifting back into the area into the weekend. Temperatures today will be seasonable, with highs in the mid to upper 70s to a few locations in southwest Nebraska in the lower 80s.
226 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 This afternoon, North Dakota sits between a stacked low pressure system spinning over southwest Ontario and an upper level ridge extending from central Saskatchewan through eastern Montana. 18Z surface analysis places a high pressure ridge over western North Dakota. Persistent cloud cover associated with the departing low is finally decreasing early this afternoon as ridging continues to build over the Northern Plains.
413 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Expect hot and dry conditions to prevail over the next few days as high pressure build in over portions of the south. A short wave traveling through the northern US will flatten the elongated ridge that connects the SW CONUS stacked high and the Bermuda High. This flattening will eventually split this elongation into two centers once again over the weekend providing that weakness in the ridge for 95L but keeping our area dry. VCSH will be used for HUM through 23z this afternoon and the low chances of convection will exist around KHUM Saturday afternoon. Activities: Monitoring Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 (Invest 95L).
735 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 It will be dry and cooler tonight and Saturday. Saturday morning lows will be in the 50s and afternoon high temperatures will range from the middle 70s in south central Lower Michigan to the lower 80s into west central Indiana.
A cold front will move through on Saturday. The cold front will usher in several days of dry weather with temperatures at or above normal. Scattered showers will accompany the dying cold front through the morning, but these will be very light and spotty. The cold front will be losing it's upper support and potency at the same time as it runs into the stubborn cold wedge, killing off many of the showers, and making only isolated showers during the afternoon over the CWA.
Moderate ENE winds will continue between high pressure north of the waters and TD Nine over the Bahamas.
High pressure will ridge from the Middle Atlantic State into the Ohio River Valley with tropical low pressure off the Southeast Coast. Significant moisture associated with the low should stay southeast and east of the forecast area. Upper ridge centered over the Carolina Mountains early Saturday will weaken over the region and strengthen farther west. As an upper trough crosses the Great Lakes region, a weakness in the ridge will develop over the Southeast.
1025 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Breezy E/NE flow in tight gradient between high pressure to the north and Tropical Depression 9 to the SE. Forecast remains closely tied with likelihood of development of the potential cyclone. Envelope of winds directly ascd with the cyclone circulation remain offshore the local Atlc coast at this time, and stronger winds ascd with squalls and onshore moving showers will remain gusty at times.
/Issued 256 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019/ An upper level ridge is situated over the area today and drier air has limited sea breeze storms to isolated coverage this afternoon. Tonight the ridge will shift to the west, and moisture will increase slightly. Will keep PoPs isolated on Saturday then increase to 30-50% on Saturday night over the water as an upper level low over the central Gulf of Mexico moves west. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than normal with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s inland.
This afternoon, North Dakota sits between a stacked low pressure system spinning over southwest Ontario and an upper level ridge extending from central Saskatchewan through eastern Montana. 18Z surface analysis places a high pressure ridge over western North Dakota. Persistent cloud cover associated with the departing low is finally decreasing early this afternoon as ridging continues to build over the Northern Plains.
Updated at 240 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 A SCT-BKN field of enhanced cu has broken out across central KY and southern IN this afternoon ahead of a cold front, which is now moving into Indiana and western Kentucky. Temperatures are hovering in the low to mid 90s with heat indices around 100. Lows tomorrow morning will drop into the low to mid 60s in most places.
A weak cold front is moving through the PAH forecast area this afternoon with little fanfare. This will be followed by an upper level ridge gradually building over our region the rest of the weekend. Much drier air will filter in behind the cold front tonight, with dew points by Saturday afternoon in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Temperatures will also be several degrees "cooler", but still a few degrees above seasonal normals.
614 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Mid-level heights are rebounding today over the mid MO Valley in the wake of a strong synoptic cyclone lifting from MN into Ontario. In the low levels, midday surface analysis revealed a high centered over KS, which has temporarily displaced a moist and unstable boundary layer to our south across the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley. Considerable mid-level ridging is forecast over the north-central U.
/issued 341 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019/ Another hot day across the region with temperatures ranging from the low to mid 90s, though with a somewhat drier air mass currently in place, it doesn't feel too insufferable outside. Noted on water vapor imagery is the mid/upper low over the NE Gulf which has been slowly creeping westward.
In fact, several areas have seen below freezing low temperatures and that trend will continue into the weekend.
Moisture is slowly creeping in with dewpoints in the lower 50's along the international border and upper 40's elsewhere. Expect these dewpoints to climb as the day goes on thanks to easterly flow in the lower to mid levels along with outflow from storms.
The best environment for severe weather remains to the south along the cold front and east where daytime heating should build greater instability. Upper level low pressure system was located over southwest Ontario and was moving to the northeast at 20-25 knots.
Weak ridging over the Great Basin today will slide east over Colorado on Saturday. However the airmass will warm a little, so lows are expected to be about 5F warmer than yesterday. It will be warmer over the Urban Corridor and eastern plains Saturday afternoon with mid to upper 80s expected.
Showers will mainly affect northern portions of the region tonight from a warm front.
Winds have generally followed normal diurnal patterns, at 5-10 mph with intermittent aftn gusts to 25-30 mph for the higher peaks as well as the far eastern plains. Look for clear to mostly clear skies tonight with low temps in the 30s to around 40F for the high valleys, and mid 40s to mid 50s for the plains. Saturday looks to be very similar to today though warmer as the flow aloft begins to make a shift to the southwest. plan on highs in the 70s to around 80F for the high valleys, and lower 80s to lower 90s for the plains.
Only concern for the overnight period is potential fog development, mainly for the typically cooler areas of ERN OK and NW AR.
611 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Strato-cu field continues to pivot around the upper low this afternoon as rather gusty northwest winds slowly subside. Surface winds will turn variable later this evening before surface ridging moves through and a more prevailing southwesterly flow returns.
/issued 304 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019/ Skies remain mostly sunny across the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures in the low to mid 90s. A weak cold front is moving through the Mid-South this afternoon. The cold front is expected to move out of the Mid-South tonight. Temperatures will turn a little cooler tonight with lows Saturday morning in the mid 60s to lower 70s. By Saturday, the cold front will have moved out and weakened leaving continued dry weather for the region. Temperatures will be a little cooler than today with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Weak high pressure will return to the region by Saturday night keeping dry weather with above normal temperatures for the remainder of the weekend.
708 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Warm and humid conditions will be interrupted by showers and storms with a cold front later tonight. No changes were needed for the eve update as rain chances will increase with the approach of a cold front tonight. Shower activity will cease from west to east Saturday morning as high pressure builds.