Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
348 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 High pressure over the central Plains will move east across the Ohio Valley today and tonight providing fair weather in our area. Temps will remain much below normal today as broad thermal trof over the Great Lakes moves slowly east. GFS suggests wk forcing and limited moisture will accompany the front, while ecmwf indicating more interaction with srn stream shrtwv ejecting eastward from swrn CONUS trof.
143 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 A dry cold front with scattered mid and high level clouds continues to move east through central GA at this time. A breezy NW wind will usher in drier air throughout the night with Sunday morning lows in the low 40s north to mid 50s central. 16 Secondary surge of cooler/drier air poised to enter the northwest this afternoon. Cooler and drier airmass brings below normal temperatures to the forecast area tonight through Sunday night.
300 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016 High pressure will dominate the weather across central Illinois today, providing plenty of sunshine and considerably lighter winds than yesterday. As high pressure shifts east of the region, a warm front will take shape and begin to approach from the southwest late tonight into Monday. Trailing ridge axis and associated dry low-level airmass will likely keep the precip at bay until Monday afternoon.
The High Res/CAM models indicate scattered thunderstorms developing to our southwest across the Trans Pecos this afternoon and evening, and moving east into our area by this evening. Highs will be the mid 60s and 70s, with overnight lows mainly in the lower 60s.
1039 PM PDT SAT MAY 14 2016 A slow moving upper level low will move toward the Inland Northwest bringing widespread Light to moderate rain over much of the Inland Northwest.
Concur with the GFS deterministic that an upper disturbance approaching the West Coast will move slowly across the Western CONUS during the period while the upper low over the Midwest shifts east.
This will lead to cooler temperatures near the coast and across southeast GA to the northerly winds, with upper 80s to low 90s across the western interior portions of northeast FL.
Nearly zonal flow is in place aloft this morning while at the surface, a dry cold front is positioned across the southeast. Temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s away from the immediate coast, where highs will be a few degrees cooler.
High pressure over the plains states will drift through the Ohio and Tennessee river valleys today and tonight. A warm front will approach the region from the southwest on Monday.
Upper level ridge has begun to breakdown, giving way to a short wave trough. QPF values in the higher terrain will be well over an inch, with lower values over the lower elevations.
425 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 Breezy winds combined with cold air and scattered showers will prevail today in the wake of a strong cold front.
Multicellular clusters of thunderstorms developed earlier this morning across the Rio Grande Plains ahead of a weak mid level disturbance with moist southeast trajectory in the low levels across deep south Texas. Thunderstorms will form over northern Mexico aided by mid level disturbances as the ridge to our west breaks down.
An upper level low over central Oregon will continue shift east today. Rain from the low will reach parts of northwest Oregon and southwest Washington today. Showers will taper off tonight then end Monday night as an upper ridge builds over the area.
/Tonight/ The large upper level low extending from the upper Great Lakes and into the Hudson Bay region remains the dominant weather feature impacting Iowa. An upper level PV anomaly will drop through the northwest flow created by the upper low and arrive across northwest Iowa late this afternoon and early evening then track southeast overnight. A frost advisory remains in place over the northeast where temperatures in the low to mid 30s are expected along with high enough humidity for frost potential. Potential temperatures will drop into the low to mid 30s across the Nishnabotna Valley to the southwest where it is closer to the low but clouds may impact this area as well.
High pressure passes south of the region today which will allow us to warm into the mid to upper 50s. A lake breeze is expected so areas close to the lake will only see highs in the low to mid 50s. The cooler upper level air shifts east with lows tonight in the low 40s. A low pressure system shifts southeast across the Great Lakes tonight into Monday. Its cold front sinks south down the lake Monday afternoon and evening. The highest PoPs are a chance right along the IL/WI state line Monday evening and night.
Pattern across the Nation continues to be dominated be a large trough across eastern North America with a dirty ridge across the Rockies and West Coast. Of note is a circulation burrowing into the western ridge through the Pacific Northwest on its way into the Desert Southwest. Speaking of rain, expectations are that the Desert Southwest trough will take its time moving out of the Four Corners into the Plains to during the work week.
Satellite imagery only shows high clouds moving east earlier this morning with a few clouds in the low levels and no precipitation. A high pressure building over southeast U.
High pressure continues across the area with a few mid clouds. /ISSUED / High pressure continues over the area.
230 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016 Temperatures remain quite variable early this morning, oscillating between the lower 40s and mid 30s, depending on localized mixing and lingering mid-lvl clouds. Despite temperatures in the lower to middle 60s, considerable sunshine and light winds should make Sunday rather enjoyable. 925:850 MB ridge will sprawl out along the NE/SD border, trapping moisture just south of the CWA. Overnight lows in the lower 40s. expect the ridging ahead of the approaching northern wave will keep rain south of the area.
A cold front also sits somewhere along the I-10 corridor and has begun to move back north and wash out. Showers and a few storms will continue to affect parts of the area this morning with another round of storms expected to develop near the higher terrain early this afternoon.
Unsettled and cooler weather is in store through at least the beginning of the work week.
A weak cold front has stalled over southern Texas while 925 mb and 850 mb boundaries linger over central Texas.
A deep upper trough is located over the Ontario/Great Lakes region. The bulk of the energy within the trough will release off to the east the next couple days, but enough of the trough will hang back to keep northwest upper flow into the forecast area through mid-week.
Overall the higher chances still look to be east of the Mississippi River.
Northwest flow aloft and high pressure at the sfc will ensure quiet wx conditions today.
655 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 High pressure over the central Plains will move east across the Ohio Valley today and tonight providing fair weather in our area. Temps will remain much below normal today as broad thermal trof over the Great Lakes moves slowly east. GFS suggests wk forcing and limited moisture will accompany the front, while ecmwf indicating more interaction with srn stream shrtwv ejecting eastward from swrn CONUS trof.
126 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 An unseasonably cold airmass will remain over the region into Sunday while an upper level trough sits over the Great Lakes.
An upper level low over Oregon will bring showers to western Washington today.
At the surface, a high pressure was slowly progressing east away from the region. Forecast calls for high temperatures in the low to upper 50s.
A short wave will move across the area today underneath weak ridging aloft.
401 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016 Area will remain in split flow with northwesterly upper level flow to our north and a weak upper level ridge across Colorado. This ridge will continue to weaken as it moves east across the central U. At the surface, area of cool high pressure centered over the nations's mid section will continue to shift southeast through the day. Moisture will be slow to return to the area behind the departing cold high pressure system.
Some of the higher elevations above 4500 ft are currently around the freezing mark and will start the day out a bit below freezing. Winds will be gusty again today but should be weaker than yesterday with gust only in the 20-25 mph range, as the pressure gradient relaxes some with high pressure building in from the west. For now, have just mentioned patchy frost across the higher elevations along the TN/NC line and in SW VA.
By the evening the approach of an upper level trough from eastern Colorado and an associated front moving south from Kansas will begin to increase thunderstorm chances over northern Oklahoma. During the afternoon Sunday the front and upper trough are expected to be moving across Oklahoma, and rain and thunderstorms are expected more over central Oklahoma.
Additional thunderstorm activity is expected to develop across the higher terrain southwest of our area. The thunderstorms to our southwest may be aided somewhat by the trough as it moves east, allowing isolated storms to move into our western counties during the afternoon and evening hours.
1049 AM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016 Weak summertime flow pattern will continue with a weak short wave passing through the area early in the weak followed by increased ridging. Otherwise, an upper trough will deamplify over the eastern seaboard today, resulting in zonal flow from the mid MS River Valley to the NC coast that will persist through tonight. At the surface, a slow moving cold front will stall over our area today, somewhere in the vicinity of the NC and SC border, remaining there through tonight. Temperatures will run slightly above normal as the upper ridge flattens.
An upper level trough will move over British Columbia through Sunday.
and Sunday High pressure will dominate our weather over the weekend, with continued dry weather anticipated.
Did introduce VCSH at LCH and BPT with models depicting some increase in moisture within the low to mid levels over these terminals. This associated with weak troffing advancing north/northeast from the gulf waters and coastal southeast Texas. Broad upper level high pressure system will continue over the southeast U.
1222 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016 Hydro The holiday weekend will see perfect weather as Canadian high pressure continues to bring mostly clear skies, low humidity and comfortable temperatures.
Ridging will attempt to build in from the south, and this will push any precip north of the region during the day. At the same time, a warm front over southern Arkansas will move northward. Low pressure developing to the west will drag a cold front into the region Sunday night, with rain chances increasing.
A lee trough axis will extend southwest of the low into southwestern Kansas. High temperatures will be very uncertain depending on how far north the actual warm front makes it, and effects of outflow from this mcs. Will show a contrast of lower 80s near the warm front, to the mid 90s near the Oklahoma border. Storm training with intense, potentially excessive hourly rainfall rates, will be possible with a slowly veering low-level jet becoming more aligned with the southward advancing cold front. High chances for thunderstorms will linger in southeastern Kansas Sunday into Sunday night, as the slow-moving cold front interacts with an anomalously moist, unstable airmass.
Temperatures are running cooler this morning. A trough will remain over the west coast to keep moderate flow through the delta and a deeper marine layer along the coast.
Mid/upper ridging continues to wield influence over the region as we kick off the holiday weekend, helping to limit convection today. Ridging surface and aloft along the Gulf coast from the east will remain dominant over our CWA Sunday.
Clouds and a bit warmer column may hold minimums a bit higher. The 4th of July looks like the warmest day as the thermal ridge axis nudges into the forecast area ahead of approaching short wave and surface cold front.
A weak short wave trough across the ne Gulf is helping to produce a few storms and scattered showers. High pressure ridging over southern FL. The short wave trough slides across northern FL as the west coast sea breeze sets up with a slightly more robust westerly flow. High pressure ridge axis across the far southern waters will keep winds southwest at 5-10 knots.
Surface analysis this morning places a warm front across eastern Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas, and central Mississippi. Dewpoints are in the lower 70s INVOF the boundary while some drier air has worked into NE parts of the forecast area where dewpoints have dropped into the lower 60s this morning. Temps range from the lower 60s at Paris to mid 70s in the Delta region. There will be a contrast in humidity levels as well with places like Paris enjoying dewpoints in the lower and mid 60s while Clarksdale remains in the lower 70s with heat index values around 100 this afternoon. The boundary may start to move a little north in response to low pressure development to the west. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s with heat index values around 100.
Breezy south winds will develop later this morning ahead of a cold front across western Kansas.
Drying continues across South Texas as ridging remains in place in the midlevels. However with enough moisture in the lowest levels, isolated showers will remain possible this morning and early afternoon across the gulf waters and the Northern Coastal Bend, although most locations should remain dry. Warmer temperatures for Sunday may allow for higher heat index values and likely warrant a Heat Advisory for portions of South Texas.
The weak cold front that moved through the Mid State yesterday with isolated showers and storms was located from the Appalachians down into central AL/GA this morning. Dry high pressure will be the main feature today. A trough will be moving from the plains into the Mid Ms Valley region as a warm front sets up just to our north. As highs Sunday climb into the low to mid 90s, heat index values will touch 100 in some areas.
Behind it additional rainfall is expected to develop as lift/frontogenesis increases in the 500-300mb layer over the area today as the upper level short wave trough lingers of the area. Storm activity will gradually shift east through the day and this evening following the upper level short wave trough.
Hot and dry conditions continue today as an upper level ridge continues to build over the region. Strong subsidence under this ridge will keep any showers or storms from developing while also sending temps into the mid and upper 90s this afternoon. Very muggy conditions continue overnight with lows in the low to mid 70s inland to upper 70s along the coast.
Frontal boundary will remain to the north with high pressure to the southeast the next few days.
Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a weak short wave trough axis across our forecast area, separating sinking, drying, northwest winds west of the trough axis from moist southwest winds to the east of the axis. Although the NWP guidance does not depict significant Q-G forcing with this trough, its separation of moisture, coupled with mesoscale boundary forcing (such as the north FL sea breeze front and outflow boundaries) will be the main driver of today's PoPs. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s across the northwest two-thirds of the forecast area, and mid to upper 80s across north FL, where cloud cover and rain will keep temperatures a little "cooler".
1156 AM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016 High pressure centered over northern Illinois early this morning will build eastward and it should bring dry weather conditions for today and Sunday.
Subtle drying transitioning in from the west will relegate the best chances for afternoon and evening storms today and Sunday over the higher terrain of eastern Arizona. Outside of our exceptional heat events typical of this time of year (which themselves produced rare upper teen to 120F values at some locales), an earlier-than-climatologically-usual onset of the MMB intrusion, record-breaking late June PWAT values, dewpoints and cloudiness more typical of August and an upper trough and shear profile usually seen as a season-ending event have made for an busy season kick-off! Cyclonic trough flow across northern and south-central AZ still noted on model forecasts, RAOBs from earlier in the evening and a few ACARS soundings.
718 AM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016 High pressure will move across the lower great lakes today.
and that seems reasonable since mid level trough axis is expected to shift eastward. Highs on Sunday should be warmer than today. then highs in the lower or mid 80s are likely for Independence Day. The mid tropospheric pattern for much of this period will feature a trough over the far western United States and a ridge from northern Mexico toward the Ohio Valley. The overnight hours will generally have the higher chances. With surface dewpoints likely climbing back to the lower or mid 70s. MVFR to IFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period as an upper level short wave trough moves across the area and brings in low cloud ceilings and rain.
1010 AM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016 High pressure will move across the lower great lakes today.
Dewpoints are in the lower 70s INVOF the boundary while some drier air has worked into NE parts of the forecast area where dewpoints have dropped into the lower 60s this morning. Temps range from the lower 60s at Paris to mid 70s in the Delta region. There will be a contrast in humidity levels as well with places like Paris enjoying dewpoints in the lower and mid 60s while Clarksdale remains in the lower 70s with heat index values around 100 this afternoon. The boundary may start to move a little north in response to low pressure development to the west. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s with heat index values around 100.
725 AM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016 A weak cold front continues to drift southward across southeast Kentucky, visible only by a weak wind shift to the north-northeast and slight lowering of dewpoints. Low clouds and patchy fog which will develop over southeast Kentucky this morning as shifting winds bank up low level moisture against the higher terrain will scatter out by late morning leaving considerable high level cloudiness.
Would expect the coverage of clouds to expand until sunrise although models keep most of it north of the bay bridge.
1017 AM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016 A ridge of high pressure will extend from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through Independence Day. A weak pressure trough will linger in the forecast area. Lows will be in the low/mid 70s tonight. The models continued surface ridging extending from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico. Lee-side troughing is expected to develop over the Midlands and could act as a focus for convection. The GFS and ECMWF displayed surface ridging extending from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through the medium-range period.
Temperatures this afternoon will be similar to those yesterday near the coast and generally a few degrees cooler over inland areas given the more persistent marine influence. Would expect the coverage of clouds to expand until sunrise although models keep most of it north of the bay bridge.
1025 AM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016 Cooler and drier weather is expected today with highs mostly in the 70s.
936 AM PDT SAT JUL 2 2016 Near to slightly below normal temperatures will likely persist through the next seven days as a trough of low pressure lingers across the West Coast. A series of fairly quiet weather days coming up across the area as a weak trough slowly makes its way through the west coast. ***From previous discussion*** A very weak upper trough will linger across the region tonight and Sunday.
As a result, temperatures will likely be a few degrees warmer than yesterday.
Elsewhere, have actually increased highs a bit more into the lower 80s.
914 AM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016 High pressure will build south of the region today through tonight and will shift offshore on Sunday.
Most of the activity this afternoon should be limited to southern Nevada and Arizona as the models are indicating drier air working into southern California as a trough digs off the west coast. The real drying will take place Sunday as the trough continues to dig and pushes much of the moisture east of the area.
The story for the rest of the day will be the passage of a weak cold front. and the higher dew points of central and eastern Montana.
909 AM EDT Sat Jul 2 2016 A cold front will continue to push southeast from the area this morning. High pressure will build in from the west through tonight. A warm front will lift into the area Sunday into Sunday night.
A low pressure trough moving slowly eastward over the area continued to generate scattered light to moderate rainfall over portions of southeast Utah and southwest Colorado according to radar. Expect this activity to continue to push eastward with the trough during the morning. Drier air begins to filter over the area tonight as flow shifts to the northwest behind the trough. Subsidence in the wake of the trough combined with diurnal cooling should bring an end to shower activity toward midnight, but certainly by early morning.
Middle Tennessee should remain rain-free today, but the heat is going to start building back into the mid-state with temperatures climbing back into the low 90s for most and mid 80s on the Plateau.
A weak short wave trough embedded in the flow will initiate isolated showers and thunderstorms across the mountains of northern Baker county and far northern Adams and Valley counties this afternoon and evening.
A ridge axis aloft is forecast to build into the area tonight.
1207 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016 A cold front will cross the region this afternoon. The front will usher in cooler and less humid conditions for the remainder of the holiday weekend. A cold front will cross the region this afternoon, while an upper low approaches northern Maine. A disturbance rotating around the upper low will also cross the region this afternoon. Behind the front, breezy and cooler conditions follow with lower humidity. Breezy and cooler conditions follow tonight with lows dropping into the upper 40s to lower 50s.
A larger-scale analysis revealed that weak ridging was present through much of the troposphere -- a western Atlantic ridge extended westward at low levels, while a Gulf ridge extended eastward at higher levels. Meanwhile, a classic-looking tropical upper-tropospheric trough, or TUTT, cell was ambling westward between eastern Cuba and the central Bahamas, with some associated enhanced cirrus over the Turks and Caicos and southern Bahamas. Prognostic Overview -- Lower-tropospheric height rises will commence this afternoon, as the Atlantic ridge builds slowly westward.
Little overall change in the local weather pattern as weak frontal trough over the southeastern U. was keeping the Atlantic ridge axis suppressed to the southern third of the Florida peninsula. A considerable coverage of Atlantic showers/storms was occurring early this morning in the weak moisture convergence zone to the north of this ridge axis.
724 AM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016 Aviation The holiday weekend will see perfect weather as Canadian high pressure continues to bring mostly clear skies, low humidity and comfortable temperatures.
A weak trough centered over western Colorado is keeping some clouds over eastern Utah this morning. Another weak trough will move into the forecast area tonight into Sunday as it weakens The airmass will trend drier but there should be enough instability for a bit of convection focused over the higher terrain of northern Utah.
Conditions will continue to dry out, with well above normal temps that will be even warmer over the weekend than the last few days due to diminished easterly flow. This trough makes a significant shift eastward during the evening hours ahead of a cold front which moves into North Central Montana.
1248 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016 High pressure will remain across the region today and tonight.
100 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016 High pressure will be over the area today and will slide east of the area tonight.