Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
318 AM CST Thu Dec 24 2020 An upper level trough extends from over the Upper Midwest to over Texas. The upper trough will move eastward today with temperatures across the area staying cool with highs mostly in the 50s.
305 AM CST Thu Dec 24 2020 A potent cold front has pushed through the Mid-South this morning. Expect highs to range from the lower 30s to lower 40s. Can't rule out some scattered flurries occurring this afternoon as an upper trof moves through the region. Arctic high pressure will settle over the Mid-South for Christmas day. Highs will struggle to get above freezing across much of West Tennessee.
255 AM MST Thu Dec 24 2020 Satellite imagery shows high amplitude ridging over the PacNW into southwest Canada, with northerly flow over our region. 700mb flow will be strongest (30-40 kts) today and this evening, then decrease later tonight thru Christmas as the ridge axis continues to move east. Tomorrow may be a bit cooler in our central and east parts due to the weakened downslope flow.
530 AM CST Thu Dec 24 2020 Latest water vapor imagery is showing longwave trough extending from the Upper Midwest into the southern Plains. Winds are slowly decreasing early this morning as this low moves northeast further relaxing the pressure gradient over the area. There was also a secondary cold front extending from southern Iowa northwestward into the northern Plains. So with some sun, highs will range from the lower 30s over central Missouri to the mid 20s over south central Illinois. Britt EPS and GEFS mean continue to show the upper flow becoming more zonal over the weekend as the longwave lifts out of the area and the longwave ridge over the western CONUS flattens out as it moves east into the Midwest.
The tail end of a boundary briefly passes Friday and may bring a few clouds at the high drifts east.
(Today and tonight) Cooler conditions will be in place across West Central Texas following a recent cold frontal passage.
with low temperatures tonight bottoming out in the single digits and highs tomorrow only reaching the lower to middle 20s. 20z/2pm water vapor imagery shows a deepening long-wave trough extending from Ontario southward to the Gulf Coast. A potent wave embedded within the trough over eastern Iowa/northwestern Illinois has been responsible for the development of diurnal clouds and scattered flurries across central Illinois today. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the single digits, while highs on Friday struggle to reach the lower to middle 20s. Upper heights will rise in earnest over the weekend as the trough departs and ridging takes hold across the central/eastern CONUS.
Strong high pressure aloft will move east across the Great Basin through Friday.
High pressure spilling south through the Plains states tonight will continue to usher very cold air into the forecast area.
1029 AM MST Thu Dec 24 2020 We will be in for a quiet stretch of weather the next few days as a transitory ridge works out of the West and across the spine of the Rockies. The 24/00Z hand analysis chart as closed low sitting off the California coastline. The arrival of the ridge and warmer air aloft will lead to prime inversion conditions to end out the week. especially in the high country.
252 PM CST Thu Dec 24 2020 Skies have cleared with high pressure continuing to build in across the region. Temperatures will fall mainly into the lower 30s north with perhaps the cool spot Alexandria near 29. temperatures will be not far off from freezing. Christmas morning will start out cold with slightly warmer conditions for Friday afternoon with sunny skies.
An upper level high pressure ridge moving into the region will maintain dry and relatively mild conditions through Christmas Day.
1156 AM CST Thu Dec 24 2020 Currently have a deep upper trough extending from the Upper Mississippi Valley, down into Central TX. At the surface, low pressure has now lifted into the Northern Great Lakes region with high pressure moving into the southern High Plains. Strong northerly upper flow will be in place today across the Plains as the sharp upper trough moves off to the east. At the surface, a weak ridge will slide over the area. As the upper trough moves off into the eastern CONUS for Fri, a weak upper impulse is expected to move out of the Desert Southwest and into West TX. This will result in some lee troughing, setting up some great downslope conditions for Fri. This will cause a cold front to surge south Sun into Sun night.
An upper ridge will provide the region with dry conditions and mostly clear skies today. Temperatures will be slightly warmer due to the ridge and locally gusty south-southeast winds for better mixing this afternoon.
Impressive deep layer upper trough from WI swwd through MO will shift east this period and allow low level flow to veer n-nwrly across lake MI tonight. Cellular snow showers already in progress through west Michigan of which will rapidly escalate in organization and intensity by sunset timed with sewd pivot of low level trough axis. Non-steady state low level flow will allow band to oscillate wwd initially yet shift back east late tonight as upper trough begins to break ewd. In wake of short term sys, low amplitude ridging builds ahead of upstream nrn stream wave digging through the nrn lakes Mon. As the Cold front continues east through Ohio and strongest pressure rises shift eastward.
235 PM CST Thu Dec 24 2020 As of this writing a warm front was through Crosby, Williston, Dickinson and Hettinger, but not yet to Tioga or Glen Ullin. The increasing dewpoint depression ahead of the front has acted to erode the low cloud deck, which was being replaced by a mid cloud deck in warm air advection at that level, H850-H700 MBS, so mostly cloudy either way. The clouds west were scattering out and that scattering will push east behind the frontal passage as the low level cold air modifies and the vertical spread in temperature is lessened in the lower sigma layers. The cold front that follows moves out of canada on Christmas afternoon and across the forecast area with slowly falling temperatures, especially north, by mid afternoon Christmas Day.
Potential for snow showers remains across the higher elevations of north Georgia this afternoon and evening, with mainly flurries farther south. /Issued 645 AM EST Thu Dec 24 2020/ A deep upper trough moving through the MS River Valley today into this evening will push a cold front across the forecast area today. 00 inches are possible at the highest elevations.
204 PM CST Thu Dec 24 2020 The highly amplified mid-level pattern of recent days is expected to continue through the short range, gradually breaking down this weekend.
231 PM CST Thu Dec 24 2020 Winds will gradually ease as we go through the afternoon and evening hours as progressive ridging to the west begins to propagate east.
The clear skies today and height rises in the mid- levels have allowed for temps to warm up about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. We will also see winds slowly turn back to the west and southwest by Friday as lee side troughing develops. Upper level winds also start to become more westerly as the strong pattern of ridging in the west and troughing in the east weakens, allowing the pattern to become more zonal.
Surface ridging spills into eastern Nebraska overnight and will help to enhance radiational cooling, should clouds clear as anticipated. With this in mind, went with cooler guidance for overnight lows. Christmas Day looks to remain dry and mild as heights build aloft and an upper level ridge moves into the Plains.
A highly amplified and intense longwave trof, the axis of which roughly extends from the western Great Lakes to the Sabine River valley, advances across much of the eastern states during the period and takes on a slight negative tilt in the process. The northwesterly flow ushers much colder air into the area through tonight, with lows tonight ranging from the mid to upper 20s inland to the lower 30s at the immediate coast. Highs on Christmas Day will be rather cool and range from just the lower to mid 40s inland to near 50 at the immediate coast.
1121 AM CST Thu Dec 24 2020 (Today and tonight) Cooler conditions will be in place across West Central Texas following a recent cold frontal passage.
1146 AM CST Thu Dec 24 2020 Latest water vapor imagery is showing longwave trough extending from the Upper Midwest into the southern Plains. Winds are slowly decreasing early this morning as this low moves northeast further relaxing the pressure gradient over the area. There was also a secondary cold front extending from southern Iowa northwestward into the northern Plains. So with some sun, highs will range from the lower 30s over central Missouri to the mid 20s over south central Illinois. Britt EPS and GEFS mean continue to show the upper flow becoming more zonal over the weekend as the longwave lifts out of the area and the longwave ridge over the western CONUS flattens out as it moves east into the Midwest.
So highs on Christmas Day will be just a bit warmer, in the low 20s to low 30s and lows Friday night will be about 10 to 15 degrees warmer, in the upper teens to mid 20s.
Highs will range from the lower 40s west to just the low 30s over the eastern Ozarks. A nice warm-up is expected for the weekend as weak upper level ridging and southerly surface winds draws a warmer airmass into the region.
Surface analysis this afternoon places a reinforcing arctic cold front from Lower Michigan back through Southern Illinois, North Central Arkansas, and Southwest Missouri. The aforementioned arctic cold front will move through the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight bringing a reinforcement of cold arctic air into the area and the coldest air of the season thus far.
Cold front has worked its way through most of the mid state, with temperatures and especially dewpoints dropping rapidly behind the front. Temperatures will continue to drop through the day as the trough axis aloft and the front move east. This is especially true for the Plateau where around an inch, and even a few localized areas getting around 2 inches, will be possible as decent Q vector convergence over the highest moisture in the low levels should be over the eastern third of the mid state this afternoon and evening.
Gilstad Satellite imagery shows high amplitude ridging over the PacNW into southwest Canada, with northerly flow over our region. 700mb flow will be strongest (30-40 kts) today and this evening, then decrease later tonight thru Christmas as the ridge axis continues to move east. Tomorrow may be a bit cooler in our central and east parts due to the weakened downslope flow.
Weak low pressure seen on satellite imagery this afternoon off the SoCal coast will move across AZ through Christmas Day. Friday afternoon sunshine should help temperatures rebound to warmer levels than those felt today.
Surface analysis this morning places a cold front over the Tennessee Plateau back through the Florida Panhandle, and a secondary reinforcing cold front over Central Illinois and along the I-70 corridor in Missouri. As of 10 AM CST, temperatures across the Mid-South this morning range from the lower to middle 30s across North Mississippi and temperatures around or below freezing elsewhere with sunny to mostly sunny skies. /issued 305 AM CST Thu Dec 24 2020/ A potent cold front has pushed through the Mid-South this morning. Expect highs to range from the lower 30s to lower 40s. Can't rule out some scattered flurries occurring this afternoon as an upper trof moves through the region. Arctic high pressure will settle over the Mid-South for Christmas day. Highs will struggle to get above freezing across much of West Tennessee.
1017 AM MST Thu Dec 24 2020 Western NOAM ridge will shift east and allow for mild and dry conditions through the end of the week. Much warmer conds can be expected today in the western 2/3 with even warmer temps Friday as the ridge shifts east.
In the wake of the strong cold front, temperatures have steadily dropped overnight. Highs will be around freezing. Since there probably will be another batch of low clouds and flurries over those areas, highs will be on the lower end of guidance. Forecast highs on Christmas will range from the lower 20s over sw Indiana to the upper 20s near the Mississippi River. The Ozark foothills will reach the lower to mid 30s due to lots of sunshine and some downsloping west winds.
245 PM CST Thu Dec 24 2020 Last night's cold front brought in the coldest morning this fall/winter for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, as well as the driest air yet. Fortunately, surface winds are backing to westerly, and increasing high clouds moving through the ridge should keep this Christmas Eve a few degrees warmer than last night. WV imagery shows upper-level ridging covering the western conus, with the next trough off the SoCal coast. This feature is forecast to nudge the ridge into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico Christmas Day, and then move through the area Friday night. Models persist in generating -SHRA invof the Davis Mtns as the trough moves through but, as noted above, there will be very little antecedent moisture to work with. The trough will have no effect on temps through the weekend.
Well, Santa will need to stay warm, as he makes his rounds this Christmas Eve night, as temperatures again fall below freezing. Another Cold Front and Possible Rain.
A rather chilly night is expected tonight, especially across southeast KS, as low-level ridging settles south amidst a continued dry airmass under mostly clear skies, where teens are expected.
250 PM EST Thu Dec 24 2020 A deep, dynamic upper-level trough is continuing its push across the Southeast today, keeping north and central Georgia within a region of upper-level divergence and strong ascent. The surface cold front and associated rain shield will continue pushing through central and eastern Georgia through the rest of the afternoon. Rain will exit the CWA by early evening, with cold air advection and continued ascent forced by the trough/DPVA in its wake. 5 to 2 inches in the highest elevations of north Georgia (mainly above 2000 feet). The primary impact will be slippery road conditions as temperatures drop below freezing around sunset. Christmas Day will be dry as the upper-level trough pushes further east and dry northwest flow aloft settles in behind it.
This afternoon through Friday night The short term starts off with high pressure over Idaho providing a nice dry, though cold, pattern for the area. However, this ridge, combined with the strong low over the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest, is creating a strong pressure gradient across the area. Meanwhile, breezy areas like Casper will likely see the warmer temperatures indicated in the models. The longwave ridge starts moving eastward across Wyoming on Christmas Day, which will keep the CWA in the dry pattern.
Look for warmer temperatures and lighter winds across northern Arizona today.
Currently, thermal trof over/near Iowa with highs in the single digits and teens this afternoon.
/issued 252 PM CST Thu Dec 24 2020/ Skies have cleared with high pressure continuing to build in across the region. Temperatures will fall mainly into the lower 30s north with perhaps the cool spot Alexandria near 29. temperatures will be not far off from freezing. Christmas morning will start out cold with slightly warmer conditions for Friday afternoon with sunny skies.
Temperatures are near or below freezing across all of the Midsouth with wind chills mostly in the 20s. Surface analysis this afternoon places a reinforcing arctic cold front from Lower Michigan back through Southern Illinois, North Central Arkansas, and Southwest Missouri. The aforementioned arctic cold front will move through the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight bringing a reinforcement of cold arctic air into the area and the coldest air of the season thus far.
Warmer tomorrow with a more westerly component to the llvl winds. With high pressure to the east.
upper level ridging moves toward the area with little if any cloud cover.
A ridge of high pressure will remain across the Northern Rockies through Christmas Day. High cloud cover will gradually increase this evening and overnight as the ridge axis begins to shift eastward across central Montana. Patchy areas of freezing fog are still expected, particularly across northwest Montana.
Significant warming of temps aloft occurs on Christmas Day as the warmer wedge folds over from large scale ridging to the west. Net impact with fairly decent sunshine dimmed at times by higher clouds figured to be a couple to a few degrees cooler over much of the area, with perhaps some locations to the west pushing into the mid 30s to around 40.
428 PM MST Thu Dec 24 2020 A ridge of high pressure over the Great Basin today will push east and flatten across the forecast area through tomorrow night. As the ridge moves over the forecast area tomorrow expect surface inversions to develop with warming temperatures over the higher terrain and cold, more stagnant air remaining entrenched over favored trapped valley locations.
High pressure aloft will move east into and then across Utah tonight through early Friday.
/Issued 250 PM EST Thu Dec 24 2020/ A deep, dynamic upper-level trough is continuing its push across the Southeast today, keeping north and central Georgia within a region of upper-level divergence and strong ascent. The surface cold front and associated rain shield will continue pushing through central and eastern Georgia through the rest of the afternoon. Rain will exit the CWA by early evening, with cold air advection and continued ascent forced by the trough/DPVA in its wake. 5 to 2 inches in the highest elevations of north Georgia (mainly above 2000 feet). The primary impact will be slippery road conditions as temperatures drop below freezing around sunset. Christmas Day will be dry as the upper-level trough pushes further east and dry northwest flow aloft settles in behind it.
Surface ridging continues to build into the area tonight, with the axis extending over the southern and western portions of the CWA. This combination of calm winds and mostly clear skies will allow for efficient radiational cooling at the surface, with lows in the low to mid 30s. In addition, have issued an SPS for all other inland counties on the potential for temperatures to near or briefly reach freezing.
239 PM MST Thu Dec 24 2020 Skies have continued clearing today and will likely remain mostly clear overnight as the trough pulls further away. This allowed highs to reach the upper 40s to mid 50s F across much of the plains, which is a few degrees warmer than forecast. Highs today were all well above the high end of guidance. Skies should remain clear tonight as expected which will allow for good cooling, so I only increased forecast lows a few degrees to account for the warmer start. Upper level high pressure will continue to build over the Rockies tomorrow which will mean mild, dry and warm weather in northeast Colorado.
Impressive deep layer upper trough from WI swwd through MO will shift east this period and allow low level flow to veer n-nwrly across lake MI tonight. Cellular snow showers already in progress through west Michigan of which will rapidly escalate in organization and intensity by sunset timed with sewd pivot of low level trough axis. Non-steady state low level flow will allow band to oscillate wwd initially yet shift back east late tonight as upper trough begins to break ewd. In wake of short term sys, low amplitude ridging builds ahead of upstream nrn stream wave digging through the nrn lakes Mon.
Cliff PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Upper ridging settled across the western U. Looking beyond and into the weekend, upper ridging will flatten while the next trough digs into the Pacific Northwest.
210 PM MST Thu Dec 24 2020 A ridge of high pressure over the Great Basin today will push east and flatten across the forecast area through tomorrow night. As the ridge moves over the forecast area tomorrow expect surface inversions to develop with warming temperatures over the higher terrain and cold, more stagnant air remaining entrenched over favored trapped valley locations.
The highly amplified mid-level pattern of recent days is expected to continue through the short range, gradually breaking down this weekend.
Peak wind gusts continue to slowly decrease across Laramie, Kimball and Cheyenne counties this afternoon, thus will allow the High Wind Warning there to expire on schedule. Gradients remain sufficient for possible high winds to continue across the wind prone locations such as Arlington, Bordeaux and the Interstate 80 Summit between Laramie and Cheyenne, so the High Wind Warning looks good for these locations. The flow aloft turns from northwest to west as the ridge aloft moves overhead. It looks like the gradients in the low levels should decrease enough to allow the High Wind Warning to expire at late morning for Arlington, Elk Mountain, Bordeaux and the Interstate 80 Summit.
There was some freezing rain earlier in the day along the Plateau, which will likely add to hazardous travel conditions in addition to any snow accumulations. We will see some "warming" through the day, but don't let that fool you because we will likely not see temperatures above freezing tomorrow.
A weak low pressure system will cross the region Christmas morning bringing mostly cloudy skies and a few mountain flurries. Mid and high level cloud cover continues to stream over the area this afternoon in advance of a weak low pressure system. For tonight, cloud cover will help keep things a bit warmer than last night but still expect chilly lows for Christmas morning. As the weak system crosses the state Christmas morning, there is a slight chance of flurries over the higher terrain.
226 PM MST Thu Dec 24 2020 Upper ridging will continue build in from the west through Christmas tomorrow. Upper ridge will flatten as a series of weak waves push through ahead of the next Pacific system.
403 PM MST Thu Dec 24 2020 Upper ridging will continue build in from the west through Christmas, tomorrow. Upper ridge will flatten as a series of weak waves push through ahead of the next Pacific system.
/issued 231 PM CST Thu Dec 24 2020/ Winds will gradually ease as we go through the afternoon and evening hours as progressive ridging to the west begins to propagate east.
/issued 245 PM CST Thu Dec 24 2020/ Last night's cold front brought in the coldest morning this fall/winter for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, as well as the driest air yet. Fortunately, surface winds are backing to westerly, and increasing high clouds moving through the ridge should keep this Christmas Eve a few degrees warmer than last night. WV imagery shows upper-level ridging covering the western conus, with the next trough off the SoCal coast. This feature is forecast to nudge the ridge into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico Christmas Day, and then move through the area Friday night. Models persist in generating -SHRA invof the Davis Mtns as the trough moves through but, as noted above, there will be very little antecedent moisture to work with. The trough will have no effect on temps through the weekend.
No changes from previous as high pressure builds down from the Plains. Warmer tomorrow with a more westerly component to the llvl winds. With high pressure to the east.
and already freezing or lower in a couple of traditionally colder spots. /issued 252 PM CST Thu Dec 24 2020/ Skies have cleared with high pressure continuing to build in across the region. Temperatures will fall mainly into the lower 30s north with perhaps the cool spot Alexandria near 29. temperatures will be not far off from freezing. Christmas morning will start out cold with slightly warmer conditions for Friday afternoon with sunny skies.