Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper level trough over the Great Lakes region continues to keep cooler air over the Central Plains as well as the Midwest. The transition of this cooler air runs through and just south of the Panhandles.
The northern and central mountains will see the higher snowfall totals of 5-10 inches with amounts tapering off as you head south. Tomorrow is generally dry as a progressive ridge begins to build over the region.
At the surface, low pressure and a cold front round the southwestern side of the ridge across the Plains, strengthening the pressure gradient along the lower Texas coast.
It will likely be a touch cooler in extreme northeastern Kansas tonight where clouds may begin to clear. The upper level trough currently in place over the northeastern CONUS is expected to remain in place through midweek. At this time, the weekend is looking very nice with highs in the low to mid 60s under partly cloud skies.
High pressure will be northwest of the region Today. The high will build more toward the north Tonight through Wednesday. A coastal trough is expected to develop Wednesday in the onshore flow pattern increasing the potential for coastal showers over NE FL.
High pressure is over the region, and cloudiness appears to be on the decreasing trend. The models show our region under northwest flow aloft on Wednesday bringing cooler than normal temperatures with 40s for highs. The models then show upper level ridging over the western U.
246 AM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021 200 AM CDT Tue Nov 02 Seasonably chilly the next couple of days with highs generally topping out in the low to mid 40s. The typically cold interior locations of northern IL will probably drop into the lower 20s ranging to just a bit above freezing downtown Chicago.
High pressure at the surface will gradually move east across the upper midwest while an upper trough remains over the east half of the country into early Wednesday. This will keep a dry air mass in place aloft on the back side of the trough while the surface flow slowly turns east then southeast into early Wednesday. While only a modest recovery in moisture levels are expected into midweek, lift will begin to increase as a short wave moves around the larger upper trough and another cold front advances through the plains.
The large scale mid tropospheric pattern features a trough from eastern Canada down toward IA and MO, while several pieces of energy were pushing across the western US. At the surface, high pressure covered much of the northern and central Plains.
This widespread light precipitation will begin to taper off from north to south early Wednesday morning as a northern branch upper level trough crosses the Central Plains. Models differ slightly on timing of this upper wave but generally they are all in good agreement with the precipitation ending between daybreak and noon on Wednesday as this upper level trough passes.
500mb ridging starts to build in on Wednesday, helping to shut down the persistent afternoon cumulus.
1245 AM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021 (06Z TAFS) Rich low level moisture and an advancing cold front will bring low clouds and possibly some DZ and FG. Winds are shifting out of the south across the southern plains, allowing the cold front to briefly lift out of the area. However, a strengthening sfc anticyclone over the Central Plains will send the front back through the northern CWA late tonight. As the shallow cold air dams up against the higher terrain, temperatures south of I-10 will be about 30F warmer than areas to the north.
233 AM MDT Tue Nov 2 2021 08z surface analysis had ridge from ND into OK bringing chilly temperatures to the CWA under mostly clear skies. Water vapour had upper trough leaving the northern plains via the Great Lakes and weak upper ridge building from the Rockies toward the northern Plains.
Below-normal temperatures will persist through the week under a broad upper trough. As dry air advances into the ridges of WV, the rain/snow mix chances should quickly diminish. However, any lingering vegetation will be decidedly impacted starting tomorrow night, as a string of near or below freezing minimum temperatures starts in the lingering troughing pattern.
1017 PM MDT Mon Nov 1 2021 Northerly flow aloft will continue over the region tonight as an upper trough continues to shift off to the southeast and a narrow upper ridge builds to the west.
High pressure is tracking into the area from the northwest, within broader upper troughing over the Midwest and Great Lakes region and adjacent areas of eastern Canada.
Below-normal temperatures will persist through the week under a broad trough. As dry air advances into the ridges of West Virginia, rain/snow chances should quickly diminish. Building high pressure across the Ohio River Valley will keep the region dry and quiet.
315 AM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021 Mid level trough extended from Canada southward into the Plains early this morning while a nearly zonal flow extended from the eastern Pacific across the southern states. At the surface, high pressure was located over south central Nebraska and extended southward across eastern Kansas at 07Z. Highs today will again be in the 40s with lows tonight in the low to mid 30s.
The higher terrain could receive a couple inches of snowfall. The one exception to this will be along the higher terrain of Iron County.
An upper level trough is pushing across our forecast area this morning, as evident by the numerous high clouds. The high clouds will again inhibit much development, though a break coming up in the next few hours might support some quick cooling. Heading through the rest of the week and into the weekend, global ensembles suggest a bit of an omega blocking pattern developing with troughing over the eastern US and off the West Coast with a ridge axis over the western states.
Given the dry atmosphere, have favored a broader diurnal spread than indicated by the NBM blended guidance today/tonight, with slightly warmer highs/cooler lows.
High temperatures may warm back toward 50 degrees for the weekend as zonal flow aloft brings warmer air back to our area, but a dry forecast continues.
308 AM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021 (Issued 308 AM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021) Today through Wednesday Night: Highly amplified flow across North America will keep the Great Lakes region beneath deep troughing.
Latest SREF guidance favors locations generally north of I-10 and west of I-45 to see the lower visby's in the 9-14z timeframe.
136 AM EDT Tue Nov 2 2021 High pressure will reside over the area Tuesday. A cold front will move south of the area Wednesday with limited moisture.
1113 PM MDT Mon Nov 1 2021 Low clouds and light fog have been stubborn to improve in most locations today, and temperatures are a bit cooler as a result. A low-amplitude upper trough at 300 mb will pull across the area late tonight into Tuesday morning. The lower elevations over the west should only see minimal accumulation of up to around an inch above 6500 feet.
A robust area of high pressure entrenched across the southeastern United Stats will keep the region in anticyclonic flow and promote clam weather conditions through Wednesday due to limited moisture content throughout the atmospheric column and significant synoptic feature that will create lift. Wednesday, the zonal flow over the region will slowly abate as a digging upper-level trough begins to press against the ridge.
High pressure will build over the region through midweek allowing dry and mild conditions along with light winds to continue through Wednesday night.
Highs will range from the low to mid 60s for locations north of I-20 which are a few degrees below normal temperatures. 850mb temperatures are showing cooler thermal profiles for these areas. However, south of I- 20 will see normal values in the lower 70s.
Maintained the trend of going on the low side of guidance with lows and on the high side for max Ts. The back side of an upper trough may keep the far northeast under scattered clouds. High pressure shifts to the east on Wednesday allowing southerly winds to increase a bit. Heights will also rise aloft as ridging over the Rockies nudges into the Plains.
The trough and its related moisture should mostly be east of the forecast area by the early afternoon hours, though remnants of moisture will produce a few mountain showers today. High pressure expected to build over the area late Tuesday, with dry conditions lasting through Wednesday night.
Slightly warmer than average temperatures are expected through the weekend.
(Today and tonight) Early this morning, a cold front was situated just north of a San Angelo to Brownwood line. Cloudy and much cooler conditions can be expected today, with some drizzle and light showers possible north of the front. Temperatures today will be well below normal, with highs ranging from the lower 50s across the Big Country, to the mid and upper 60s along the I-10 corridor ahead of the front. Overnight lows will range from the low to mid 40s from the Big Country into the Concho Valley and Heartland counties, to the lower 50s across far southern counties.
Expect cooler weather for the remainder of the week. Some light accumulation is anticipated on the higher elevations, albeit on the order of an inch or so. Building high pressure across the Ohio River Valley will keep the region dry and quiet.
The Midwest will remain beneath upper-level cyclonic flow into Wednesday with a broad upper-level trough navigating this flow and traversing the region late tonight into Wednesday. Subtle lift ahead of this trough along with right jet entrance region lift will promote another round of upper-level clouds tonight.
Satellite and surface observations, as well as a quick peek out the window, are showing some decent breaks in the low cloud cover across a good chunk of northeast Oklahoma, notably north of I-44.
206 AM PDT Tue Nov 2 2021 A weak weather system will continue to move eastward out of California and high pressure will build back into the region today and Wednesday.
Mid level trough extended from Canada southward into the Plains early this morning while a nearly zonal flow extended from the eastern Pacific across the southern states. At the surface, high pressure was located over south central Nebraska and extended southward across eastern Kansas at 07Z. Highs today will again be in the 40s with lows tonight in the low to mid 30s.
High pressure will build into the region in its wake for the middle- latter portions of the week. Some rain and snow mix or light snow will linger over the highest elevations of the northern and central Potomac Highlands. Temperatures will hold in the 40s to around 50, except for the lower to middle 30s at highest elevations in the northwest and west. A few peeks of sunshine could occur west of the Blue Ridge just before sunset. The growing season has ended to the west of the I-81 corridor, so there are no headlines for those locations despite the sub- freezing temperatures expected. High pressure will build to our west on Wednesday, providing quiet weather conditions. Skies should start out sunny, but clouds may increase during the afternoon hours as a mid-upper level trough starts to dig to our west.
Today Through Wednesday Night With an upper low pressure system over the northeast, northwest flow was across Arkansas. Below freezing temperatures are expected and will issue a Freeze Watch across the north. Cooler temperatures are expected today through Wednesday.
940 AM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021 Cooler than normal and dry conditions continue through the end of this week, with overnight lows near or below freezing. Canadian high pressure sinks southward today, leading to quiet conditions. Daytime highs will be about 10 degrees cooler than normal for early November with values expected to be generally in the middle 40s to low 50s. Quiet and cool conditions are expected through the remainder of this week as high pressure remains in control.
500 AM MDT Tue Nov 2 2021 08z surface analysis had ridge from ND into OK bringing chilly temperatures to the CWA under mostly clear skies. Water vapour had upper trough leaving the northern plains via the Great Lakes and weak upper ridge building from the Rockies toward the northern Plains.
Weak low pressure offshore will slowly shift south through tonight which will provide for a slightly stronger northerly wind this afternoon and evening. High pressure will be northwest of the region Today. The high will build more toward the north Tonight through Wednesday. A coastal trough is expected to develop Wednesday in the onshore flow pattern increasing the potential for coastal showers over NE FL.
Temps on track to reach into the lower to mid 80s. High pressure will remain across the waters through much of the week keeping winds and seas light. An area of low pressure is then expected to develop in the eastern Gulf and cross the southern FL peninsula later Fri through Sat, with winds and seas increasing with the system along with bringing some showers and storms. High pressure builds back into the area behind the front for the end of the weekend.
Good news is that if drzl is an issue, temps should remain mostly above freezing, and the latest blend trended a few deg warmer. The main impact looks to be breezy S winds ahead of a weak cold front. Gusts of 25-35 MPH will take an edge off of the warmer temps in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Luckily, the breezy conditions look to be short-lived as even stronger ridging builds in for the weekend.
614 AM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021 (12Z TAFS) Low clouds continue to develop near and behind an advancing cold front. Low clouds have developed behind the front as rich, low-level moisture overrides the cooler airmass.
Light freezing drizzle has been observed around Missoula as showers move into the area. With air temperatures running right around freezing and sub-surface temperatures above freezing, ice accumulations should be minimal. However, some slick spots could develop on elevated bridges and overpasses. The higher terrain will be obscured across the area, with locally lowered visibility due to showers. Light freezing drizzle is possible in the valleys through 11/1300z, mainly in the vicinity of KMSO. As high pressure builds back over the region tonight, skies will begin to clear. High pressure rebuilds over the region tonight into Wednesday.
Have tied the higher pops (medium to high chance category) to this afternoon and evening. a large upper level ridge remains on track to slowly advance east toward the area ahead of a low pressure system moving on to the west coast of the country.
High pressure rebuilds over the region tonight into Wednesday.
533 AM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021 Cooler than normal and dry conditions continue through the end of this week with overnight lows near or below freezing. Canadian high pressure sinks southward today, leading to quiet conditions. Daytime highs will be about 10 degrees cooler than normal for early November with values expected to be generally in the middle 40s to low 50s. Quiet and cool conditions are expected through the remainder of this week as high pressure remains in control.
The weather pattern through the rest of this week and into the weekend will feature a high pressure ridge building over the Southwest leading to warming temperatures and light winds.
615 AM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021 200 AM CDT Tue Nov 02 Seasonably chilly the next couple of days with highs generally topping out in the low to mid 40s. The typically cold interior locations of northern IL will probably drop into the lower 20s ranging to just a bit above freezing downtown Chicago.
1240 PM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021 (18Z TAFS) Widespread low clouds are impacting area terminals behind a cold front, and while CNM/HOB/FST/PEQ have MVFR conditions at issuance, deterioration is expected through this afternoon and evening, with sub-IFR conditions areawide tonight through the end of the forecast period. Low clouds have developed behind the front as rich, low-level moisture overrides the cooler airmass.
308 PM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021 116 PM CDT Tue Nov 02 As we remain on the western side of broad upper-level troughing across the Great Lakes, no impactful weather is expected through the next 48 hours. Clearing skies, slackening winds, and a resident dry airmass will allow for the coldest night of the year thus far with lows in the 20s areawide and near freezing along the Lake Michigan shore.
1208 PM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021 200 AM CDT Tue Nov 02 Seasonably chilly the next couple of days with highs generally topping out in the low to mid 40s. The typically cold interior locations of northern IL will probably drop into the lower 20s ranging to just a bit above freezing downtown Chicago.
Zonal flow aloft remains dominate over the area through the period as a broad longwave trough continues shifting across the northern CONUS with ridging amplifying over the western CONUS. At the surface, high pressure remains rooted over the region through the period.
/Tonight through Tuesday/ Key Messages: -Few sprinkles possible on Wednesday -Dry the rest of the week with warming into the low 60s by the weekend Iowa is sandwiched between the departing upper level low across the Great Lakes region and a building thermal ridge across the western CONUS.
A deep layer mean anticyclone has flattened, and shifted southwestward, now centered over Mexico. An area of high pressure will continue to expand over the central and eastern United States through the end of the week.
216 PM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021 An upper level low in eastern Canada continues the cyclonic flow aloft into today. Otherwise, high temperatures remain in the 40s today and lows tonight will primarily be in the low to mid-20s, with some portions of central Wisconsin dipping under 20 degrees. The broad longwave trough at 500mb covers much of the central and eastern U.
Expect dry but cooler weather for the remainder of the week. Residual snow showers are expected to persist into Wednesday for areas north of I 80, but these will not be problematic as mid level cold advection will neutralize upon trough passage. Temperatures are expected to climb to near, or slightly above average by the start of the new week as an upper trough moves out of the Midwest and initiates warm advection on its van. VFR is expected through the TAF period for most terminals under the influence of high pressure.
With cold airmass in place expect temperatures to drop below freezing tonight. Highly amplified mid and upper level flow pattern with mean trof settling south into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this week.
However, surface temperatures remaining just above freezing combined with wet/warmer ground will likely limit potential snow accumulations. Very little change is expected to the general air mass across the high plains tonight. A few lower 30s(F) near freezing will be possible toward west central Kansas. Slightly warmer temperatures are likely Wednesday with skies beginning to gradually clear west to east by late afternoon. Expect widespread afternoon highs up into the 40s(F) with the lower 50s(F) possible in extreme southwest Kansas. Highs may struggle to reach the lower 40s(F) in central/south central Kansas where cloud cover will persist longer.
Weak low pressure/trough over the ne Fl coastal waters will weaken tonight and shift east on Wednesday.
Rain chances continue through Wednesday morning, with the highest amounts up to 0.
259 PM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021 Water vapor imagery shows an upper impulse approaching the Southern High Plains with a broad upper trough encompassing the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, high pressure extends across the Upper and Mid Mississippi Valley. This will increase Lee troughing across the area along with warm advection. ECMWF and GFS agree on upper ridging overspreading the area on Sat with a broad area of southwest flow aloft building-in for Sun.
1126 AM MDT Tue Nov 2 2021 08z surface analysis had ridge from ND into OK bringing chilly temperatures to the CWA under mostly clear skies. Water vapour had upper trough leaving the northern plains via the Great Lakes and weak upper ridge building from the Rockies toward the northern Plains.
102 PM MDT Tue Nov 2 2021 Fairly quiet weather continues while an upper ridge building in helps to warm us up.
With high pressure slowly meandering towards our area today, we will stay mostly clear, aside from scattered cumulus clouds that will quickly deplete after sunset. Through the night, high pressure will be passing through our area. Tomorrow, the high pressure slowly slides to our east, briefly introducing a southerly breeze in the afternoon. Ridge in west will continue to build in the west, leaving us in moderate northwest flow aloft. Warmer temperatures are expected this weekend.
118 PM PDT Tue Nov 2 2021 High pressure will build across the region, bringing clearer skies and warmer weather Wednesday through much of the weekend with minor changes from day to day. An area of high pressure to the south will start to nose its way into SoCal tomorrow through the end of the week. Clearer skies can be expected with warmer temperatures.
Updated the today forecast to remove the sprinkles/showers and to adjust cloud cover along with some of the high temperatures.
Expect cooler weather for the remainder of the week. No additional accumulation is anticipated on the higher elevations. Temperatures are expected to climb to near-average over the weekend as the upper-level trough advances east and warmer air tracks into the Ohio River Valley from the west.
348 PM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021 (Issued 348 PM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021) Tonight through Wednesday Night: High pressure over the central Plains will slowly shift to the Ohio River Valley through Wednesday. Clear skies overnight and a strong inversion with the ridge moving overhead will allow temps to drop into the mid 20s for inland areas. Wednesday winds will not be as strong and gusty as the past couple of days, thanks to high pressure. High temperatures will be similar to yesterday, in the lower to mid 40s.
A ridge of high pressure will build in across the western Great Lakes on Wednesday, which will keep the weather dry with continued temperatures below normal. Highs on Wednesday are expected to rise into the middle to upper 30s across the north, with highs in the lower 40s across east-central Wisconsin and the lakeshore.
1203 PM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021 Cooler than normal and dry conditions continue through the end of this week, with overnight lows near or below freezing. Canadian high pressure sinks southward today, leading to quiet conditions. Daytime highs will be about 10 degrees cooler than normal for early November with values expected to be generally in the middle 40s to low 50s. Quiet and cool conditions are expected through the remainder of this week as high pressure remains in control.
300 PM EDT Tue Nov 2 2021 Surface analysis this afternoon shows high pressure centered over Iowa providing cool northwesterly winds across central Indiana. High pressure will continue to build east into central Indiana through the short term.
With the high to our west, surface flow has predominately been out of the northwest. Despite the clouds, a good portion of the region will drop to or below freezing, and the current freeze warning that is out covers this threat well. High pressure will inch even closer tomorrow and winds will gradually switch to the north and northeast. Highs tomorrow with the cloud cover and nearby high pressure will be cool tomorrow, generally topping out in the upper 40s to near 50. To start the period, expect an eastern trough/western ridge pattern aloft while at the surface expansive high pressure is centered over the OH Valley. At the surface, broad high pressure will maintain its hold over the region, meandering around the east-central CONUS and likely ending the period just to our south and east.
Although, some slightly warmer air will be making it into the region into Wednesday. The period begins with an upper level ridge building into the region ahead of a Pacific Northwest trough.
an upper level trough really looks moisture starved.
Wednesday sees weak upper level ridging build in overheard, while a light southerly flow develops at the surface. Ridging should limit the cloud cover on Wednesday as well.
An upper level trough axis will be east of the area by Wednesday evening with rapid drying out of the mid and upper atmosphere.