Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure will build into the Great Lakes region for this weekend, bringing sunshine and warmer temperatures back into the area. Although clouds will persist through much of the day, as the upper low moves further east of the local area, a few breaks may develop for western parts of the area during the afternoon and evening hours. Model solutions continue to show very spotty shower development during the afternoon hours Thursday in the wake of the upper low /in response to a little diurnally-driven instby/ so did maintain slight chance PoPs to account for this potential, but do think that more areas will remain dry than not during the day.
/issued 331 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017/ The area will remain under the upper ridge for the next few days as the axis slides east.
The board upper level circulation associated with the remnants of Irma is rotating across the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys today, with a large trough extending southward to the Gulf coast. Best moisture is under the closed low, where scattered light rain showers and drizzle continue. The southern portion of the southern-stream trough that the remnants of Irma are embedded in will break off over the northwestern Gulf and possibly briefly close off into a weak upper low. This trough axis/weakness in the ridge will be the main feature of interest for the next couple of days. Increased sunshine in most areas will allow highs to rebound into the low to mid 80s, with some upper 70s possible in the higher elevations of the northeast counties with lingering cloudcover.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue this evening in southern Idaho and Oregon, as a trough continues to approach the PACNW. Surface cold front with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in eastern Oregon 14/12Z moving across western Idaho 14/12Z to 14/20Z.
/26/ Tonight through Tomorrow: A look at satellite imagery this afternoon reveals a low pressure system spinning over the Ohio River Valley with evidence of a broad trough extending south towards the TX Gulf Coast. An upper-level ridge was evident over the Rocky Mountains. At the surface, a cool and moist airmass in the wake of the low has been slow to erode today. A few showers have been able to redevelop farther south where a slight amount of elevated instability and lift exist along the trough axis. The trough axis will remain stretched across the southern half of the forecast area tomorrow, and daytime heating could lead to rain showers along that axis.
This will maintain a general light southwest flow tonight and Thursday, resulting in a general gradual moistening of the low level atmosphere. Large upper trof over midwest states today will weaken slightly through Thursday, but trof axis will slip slightly closer to our forecast area. Lows tonight ranging from the lower 60s inland to near 70 at the coast.
943 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017 High pressure will remain over the region today. A weak cold front will move into the north Thursday and stall.
1033 PM MDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Omega block will remain in place across the CONUS over the next few days, with ridge extending north across the High Plains through Thursday. Near record high temperatures will be possible again Thursday, with highs nearing 100F at warmer locations. Pulses of disorganized vorticity are rotating around the ridge from the Central Rockies into our CWA will allow for elevated showers or thunderstorms to develop.
521 PM MDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Omega block will remain in place across the CONUS over the next few days, with ridge extending north across the High Plains through Thursday. Near record high temperatures will be possible again Thursday, with highs nearing 100F at warmer locations. Pulses of disorganized vorticity are rotating around the ridge from the Central Rockies into our CWA will allow for elevated showers or thunderstorms to develop.
Broad low pressure system as the remnants of Irma continue to bring cloud cover and light to moderate rains to the region this afternoon.
1143 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 The upper pattern across the North America will transition from generally zonal flow to deeper trough building over the Southwestern US by the end of the week. This will allow for an upper ridge to deepen across the eastern two-thirds of the country. The trough developing over the west and stronger flow around that trough will help produce a strong lee side trough at the surface.
741 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017 A weakening upper level Low will move into the Ohio Valley tonight and then across New York and Pennsylvania on Thursday.
A cool airmass currently resides over the Northern Rockies due to a large trough of low pressure centered over the Intermountain West. High valleys could see temperatures down to upper to mid-30s, so it may be a night worth covering sensitive plants for Polebridge, Dixie, and other typical cold spots. A slow warming and drying trend is expected throughout the week as a weak ridge of high pressure builds over the western U.
159 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 Weak high pressure is forecast to keep mainly dry weather over the region today through Tuesday.
summer temperatures have returned to the area with locales currently seeing a range mainly from the mid 80s to the lower 90s.
342 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017 A trough of low pressure continued to move through the Northland this afternoon and will continue east and south overnight. Ridging will build in overnight leading to light winds and clearing skies.
A better-defined ridge aloft along with some slightly drier air could end up keeping convection suppressed a bit more, but still expected isolated to scattered activity.
1206 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017 Showers continued from the Arrowhead into the Iron Range and into northwest Wisconsin as an upper trough moves through the area. An upper level short wave with a closed mid level circulation, will cross Minnesota this morning, and then into northwest Wisconsin this afternoon as the mid level circulation opens into a trof. Elsewhere, upper level and surface ridging are arriving from the west with a clearing sky. As the high settles overhead late tonight, expect fog to develop and affect much of the region and linger until 14Z/9am Tuesday. A dry day is expected Tuesday as the ridging remains over the area. The models are trying to flatten the upper ridge in the afternoon with an approaching short wave trof.
An upper ridge will build over the region beginning Tuesday with warming temperatures through the end of the week, and potentially less active weather. Weak upper troughiness to remain over the Mississippi Valley, with upper ridge axis just to our south.
The upper ridge over eastern Pacific will continue to build, slowly driving temperatures up and humidities down throughout the week.
On Tuesday an upper level trough currently located over the Idaho panhandle will move eastward and develop and area of convection over the high plains.
A warming trend is expected on Wed with temps becoming actually a few degrees warmer than seasonal normal. More of a typical diurnal driven summertime iso light to mdt shwr/tstm pattern expected over the weekend as broad upper level troughing influences across the ern half of the contiguous U. 14/12Z EURO showing an upper level ridging pattern across the mid state region which would likely support variable skies during eclipse time with a limited chance of shwrs/tstms.
221 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017 Upper ridge weaker this morning and extending across southern tier of states from FL to AZ. An upper trough deepening across the Western US will reach down to Mexico by Tuesday.
/issued 221 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017/ Upper ridge weaker this morning and extending across southern tier of states from FL to AZ. An upper trough deepening across the Western US will reach down to Mexico by Tuesday.
159 PM PDT Mon Aug 14 2017 Weak low pressure will develop off the coast during the week with overall light winds.
A gradual warming trend is forecast from Tuesday through the end of the week as a ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific builds over California. In fact, a few far inland spots are 10 to 15 degrees cooler than this time yesterday. Synoptically a ridge of high pressure will build to the coast and then to our region later in the week. This will lead to warmer weather (especially inland) along with a more compressed marine layer. SFO Bridge Approach. Moderate northwesterly winds will continue across the coastal waters through the week as high pressure sits over the Eastern Pacific and a thermal trough resides over California.
A weak upper trough in the Upper Great Lakes will sweep a frontal boundary into central Indiana Tuesday with low coverage of showers and thunderstorms possible into Tuesday evening.
1253 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017 A warm front lifting north from southern IL may bring a few showers as far north Effingham to Robinson this morning. Upper level ridge currently just east of the Rockies will edge eastward through mid week.
Temps are on track to reach the lower 80s for most locations, with muggy dew points around 70, light winds, and mostly cloudy to overcast skies. These will occur as a low pressure system drifts eastward.
The central California interior will also have cooler temperatures during this timeframe.
327 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017 Tonight and Tuesday: Mid level heights look to begin rising as ridge builds west across the northern Gulf of Mexico. With the moist conditions in place, think the increasing warmth will be initially slow to manifest, but Tuesday does look one or two degree warmer than today.
Issued by National Weather Service STATE COLLEGE PA 116 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 An upper level trough will swing through the region tonight into Tuesday. High pressure will briefly build southeast into the area for midweek. However, low pressure over the Great Lakes will likely track east across New York state by late in the week. Temperatures mainly in the 70s to around 80 in warmer spots.
341 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017 As of 20z a low amplified trough is centered over the foothills of the Rockies. A deepening mid level trough was positioned across the western CONUS.
High pressure will be South of the region this period, resulting in a generally Southwesterly flow.
This is in association with a slow moving cold front.
An incredibly dry airmass behind a western AZ pseudo-dryline has pushed east towards central Arizona with dewpoints in western Maricopa County already plummeting into the lower 50s (not to mention the 20s and 30s over La Paz and Yuma counties). With persistent troughing sitting over the Great Basin, temperatures will generally stay below seasonal normals as H5 heights only range in a 584-588dm range. Over the weekend, it appears likely that moisture will return, at least to south-central Arizona, as an upper trough to our west sharpens and produces a stronger southerly flow.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): Broad mid-level ridging and deep subsidence aloft will maintain above normal temperatures and relatively dry conditions across deep south Texas through the period. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s under partly cloudy skies. Slightly warmer temperatures expected on Tuesday should support heat indices in the 109 to 113 range. Low temperatures Tuesday night will fall into the lower 80s across much of the area.
A ridge through the mid and upper levels will be near the Gulf coast through the rest of the work week, with a weak westerly flow through the column across East TN.
Issued by National Weather Service STATE COLLEGE PA 225 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 A weak wave will move over the top of the ridge building over the southeastern United States.
241 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017 RAP and satellite analysis showed a longwave trough pushing into the Great Basin region this afternoon. Short term models also show afternoon convection developing over the high terrain of NM and pushing eastward. This should be our last day of widespread storms as high pressure over the SE US begins to retrograde towards the central Southern US.
Issued by National Weather Service STATE COLLEGE PA 521 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 A weak wave will move over the top of the ridge building over the southeastern United States.
Gusty southwest winds will stick around through Monday evening as a low pressure system moves across the region.
213 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017 Local and regional radars still showing a few showers over portions of central Wisconsin in the cyclonic flow of the departing short wave trough over the Upper Great Lakes. These showers could possibly hold onto into the early evening over the far eastern portions of the area, otherwise the rest of tonight and into Tuesday look to be dry as high pressure over Minnesota and western Ontario briefly builds in over the area and as upper level ridging moves across the region. The ridging aloft and at the surface will get pushed east of the area starting Tuesday night. There looks to be several short wave troughs embedded in the mean trough with this system.
320 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 Weak high pressure will linger over the Mid-Atlantic region through tomorrow. A second area of high pressure will build into the region around mid-week, before a cold front slides across the region later in the week. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer with dew point temperatures poking up into the lower 70s in many places.
120 PM PDT Mon Aug 14 2017 A trough of low pressure over the western states will bring cooler weather and a deep marine layer through Tuesday.
A gradual warming trend is forecast from Tuesday through the end of the week as a ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific builds over California. In fact, a few far inland spots are 10 to 15 degrees cooler than this time yesterday. Synoptically a ridge of high pressure will build to the coast and then to our region later in the week. This will lead to warmer weather (especially inland) along with a more compressed marine layer. SFO Bridge Approach.
The passage of a cold front with some much needed rainshhowers will lead to more comfortable temperatures through midweek.
Showers continued from the Arrowhead into the Iron Range and into northwest Wisconsin as an upper trough moves through the area. An upper level short wave with a closed mid level circulation, will cross Minnesota this morning, and then into northwest Wisconsin this afternoon as the mid level circulation opens into a trof. Elsewhere, upper level and surface ridging are arriving from the west with a clearing sky. As the high settles overhead late tonight, expect fog to develop and affect much of the region and linger until 14Z/9am Tuesday. A dry day is expected Tuesday as the ridging remains over the area. The models are trying to flatten the upper ridge in the afternoon with an approaching short wave trof.
324 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017 A warm front will continue to develop north of the Iowa and Missouri border. A cold front will approach from the west on Tuesday.
Water vapor imagery and VAD network show mid-level trof over northwest WI extending south into southeast MN. This trof wl sweep across WI overnight with the best chance for scattered activity across northeast CWA closer to wave. Broken to overcast low clouds lingering into Tuesday morning should become scattered through the day as drier air aloft mixes down and better subsidence from passing short wave ridging.
A warming trend is expected on Wed with temps becoming actually a few degrees warmer than seasonal normal. More of a typical diurnal driven summertime iso light to mdt shwr/tstm pattern expected over the weekend as broad upper level troughing influences across the ern half of the contiguous U. 14/12Z EURO showing an upper level ridging pattern across the mid state region which would likely support variable skies during eclipse time with a limited chance of shwrs/tstms. These will occur as a low pressure system drifts eastward.
Eastern and southeastern OK will see the highest chances.
Issued by National Weather Service STATE COLLEGE PA 140 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 An upper level trough will swing through the region tonight into Tuesday. High pressure will briefly build southeast into the area for midweek. However, low pressure over the Great Lakes will likely track east across New York state by late in the week. Temperatures mainly in the 70s to around 80 in warmer spots.
250 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017 19z/2pm surface analysis shows 1009mb low over southeast Minnesota with weak cold front trailing into Nebraska. As the low moves slowly eastward over the next 12-24 hours, the frontal boundary will sink southward and eventually stall across central Illinois by Tuesday morning.
Issued by National Weather Service STATE COLLEGE PA 321 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 A weak wave will move over the top of the ridge building over the southeastern United States.
1251 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017 A relatively slow moving upper trough will swing across the area today into tonight. Ahead of the cold front MLCAPEs of around 500-750 J/kg may build this afternoon, especially over northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin. Weak high pressure beneath transient mid-level ridging should result in a mainly dry weather later tonight and Tuesday. Another upper level trough will begin ejecting across the central plains by Tuesday night. Strong moisture transport will occur ahead of the associated frontal cyclone with precipitable water values to 1.
218 PM PDT Mon Aug 14 2017 Cooler early this week, then warming back to near or slightly above average around mid-week.
Weak high pressure at the surface will keep winds light and generally out of the south.
Trailing upper trough axis just behind and along with bringing an end to the precip. Upper trough axis to swing across the area this evening.
There was a large temperature spread across our area this afternoon, with lower 20s in the Turtle Mountain area to the lower 50s in parts of the southwest. The high res models indicate the area of low clouds and fog expanding tonight and moving northward. The broad ridging aloft continues on Monday, along with southerly winds. Highs Monday should again be in the low/mid 50s far southwest, but reach into the 30s in the Turtle Mountains.
/issued 338 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017/ Overall, the main change in weather behind the recent cold front was a wind shift.
As the high builds in overnight and winds become nearly calm expect the dense fog to become widespread. Despite temps below freezing I have left out any mention of frost deposition and slick surfaces, as this is a radiational fog and typically deposition is most favored with moisture advection. The highest amount reported was from Mount Carroll Illinois, where a spotter measured a little more than half an inch. High pressure with a light or calm wind will settle across the forecast area and with the recent rain/wet snow, fog development is a good bet.
Currently, mostly low lying areas-river valleys seeing the lowest visibilities, but expect that to become more widespread. With temps at/below 32 F, icy spots on untreated roads, sidewalks, bridges and overpasses it likely. For tonight, the models are in agreement that the low clouds currently located over northwest Wisconsin and northern Minnesota will move southeast into western Wisconsin. Low temperatures will be in the teens in central and north-central Wisconsin and in the lower and mid-20s across the remainder of the Upper Mississippi River Valley. On Monday, the clouds will gradually increase as a short wave trough approaches the region from the Northern Plains.
The upper air pattern this week will feature a strong ridge over the southwest states.
715 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 Low pressure brings rain across the area tonight into Monday.
Surface analysis this evening places a weak cold front bisecting the Mid-South this evening. /issued 307 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017/ A cold front currently stretches from Little Rock, Arkansas to Union City, Tennessee. Behind the front, cooler temperatures will begin to filter into the Mid-South. Highs will range from the lower 50s to the lower 60s.
KAMA could see the lowest ceilings of around 100ft, KDHT could possibly fall to 200ft, and KGUY falling to near 500ft briefly.
As of 20Z Sunday afternoon a mid-level trough across the Great Lakes region continues to progress eastward. Westward, a mid-level ridge continues to build across the central Plains. The potential for any freezing fog is minimal as road and surface temperatures remain in the low 40s.
650 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 Aviation Mixed light rain and snow will come to and end this evening as high pressure moves across the lake.
The precipitation may end as a brief period of freezing drizzle east of Interstate 69. and possibly a touch of freezing drizzle will quickly move east by midnight.
Patchy freezing fog is possible along eastern portions of the Hi- Line this evening into Monday morning as high pressure exits to the east.
A cold front extends south and is likely situated just inside the western boundary of MS. Thinking we will see some of the lower clouds rotate in during the next few hours still. Lows will still fall into the lower to mid 40s overnight. High pressure will build across the region on Monday, with skies clearing fairly quickly during the morning hours. The airmass will not be too much different behind the cold front, however temperatures on Monday will still struggle to make it out of the upper 50s despite clear skies.
616 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 An approaching cold front will cross the area late tonight into Monday morning.
536 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017 Current GOES-16 water vapor imagery along with 12Z upper air analysis shows mid level short wave from the Great Lakes into the midwest progressing eastward while low amplitude ridge builds into the Rockies. Corresponding 500 mb height falls of 30-40 meters noted with the trough, with height rises of 60 meters associated with the ridge. Winds are light and variable over the CWA as we sit under high pressure.
The low clouds will continue to push out of the southeast this evening. Otherwise, look for VFR conditions once the low clouds exit this evening.
542 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017 Light rain continues to exit the state as a cold front continues its way south.
1029 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 A weak trough will move along the coast late tonight. Weak low pressure and a cold front will approach from the west tonight and cross Monday.
/issued 307 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017/ A cold front currently stretches from Little Rock, Arkansas to Union City, Tennessee. Behind the front, cooler temperatures will begin to filter into the Mid-South. Highs will range from the lower 50s to the lower 60s.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 45 60 38 60 / 10 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 55 36 57 / 20 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 45 55 37 57 / 20 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 43 51 31 54 / 30 20 0 0.
615 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 High pressure will remain over the area tonight.
931 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 Rain chances have returned for tonight with crossing low pressure. temps remain above freezing so not problems or headline are expected/warranted given warm advection/moderation with precip, warm surfaces, and lack of cold reinforcement. High pressure will be building on Monday.
515 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 An approaching cold front will cross the area late tonight into Monday morning.
An upper level ridge will be over the area through Monday while at the surface, a lee trough lies along the urban corridor. On Monday, with warmer overnight lows and warm advection moving in under the ridge, highs will likely be 10 to 20 degrees warmer over today's readings. Winds will be similar with the leeside trough remaining along the urban corridor.
With the pressure gradient relaxing some the remainder of the night as high pressure along the mid Atlantic coast weakens some in response to an approaching frontal trough, there could be some patchy fog development over the northern Nature Coast counties overnight and have added to the grids, with some patchy mist or light drizzle possible across the remainder of the forecast area. On Monday another cold front will approach from the northwest during the day and will slide south the the region during the late afternoon and early evening hours as a short trough moves off the mid Atlantic coast.