Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1030 AM EST Mon Dec 12 2016 High pressure along the Mid-Atlantic coast will move out to sea today as a cold front approaches from the Mississippi valley. The front will move back north as a warm front Tuesday.
551 AM CST Mon Dec 12 2016 12Z TAFS A line of showers has developed this morning extending northeast to southwest from near AEX to BPT well in advance of a cold front currently digging southward across northwestern Louisiana. Otherwise CIGS are forecast to drop to IFR by mid morning and will likely fluctuate through the afternoon as the cold front approaches the area and then stalls. Significant moisture remains confined to the lower levels, 800 mb and below so not anticipating any great rain makers. Dry weather pattern will then return for mid-week with much cooler temperatures incoming.
641 AM EST Mon Dec 12 2016 High pressure along the Mid-Atlantic coast will move out to sea today as a cold front approaches from the Mississippi valley. The front will move back north as a warm front Tuesday.
/issued 328 AM CST Mon Dec 12 2016/ Our first of several weak cold fronts that will move through this week, continues to push south across the area this morning.
523 AM CST Mon Dec 12 2016 Yesterdays cold front has pushed well south of the area at this time, with another shot of cold air settling over most of the region. As this warm front pushes north, moisture quality isnt all that great, with mainly low-mid clouds expected. Light south winds today will prevail across the region then switch to the northwest as a cold front drops southward tonight.
Low pressure over the Great lakes will quickly drift northeast to Quebec today. allowing cold High pressure over the plains states to build across the Ohio Valley. The high will be the main weather feature across Central Indiana Today and tonight as it quickly moves to the middle Atlantic States late Tuesday night. Satellite loop and observations show stratocu across central Indiana and back through central Illinois, with clearing line about halfway through Illinois from high pressure building in from the northern plains. thus with the lower level flow remaining slightly cyclonic and soundings suggesting low level saturation.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 41 56 40 / 100 20 40 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 38 51 38 / 100 20 30 20 Oak Ridge, TN 55 37 51 36 / 100 20 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 33 49 35 / 100 20 30 20.
414 AM CST Mon Dec 12 2016 Early morning radar showed showers along and south of the I-40 corridor, fed by maritime moisture and focused along and ahead of a Pacific cold front. The Pacific cold front will stall along or a bit north of the I-20 corridor later today. An Arctic cold front remains on track for a Tuesday night passage. The Midsouth will remain near the southern periphery of the Arctic airmass, as the pressure ridge center moves east into the northern Ohio Valley from the northern high plains.
Surface lee troughing will quickly redevelop to the west this afternoon. However, areas off the caprock will still remain relatively cool this afternoon still under the influence of some surface ridging and upslope flow. By early Tuesday morning, another dry cold front will be beginning to push through the region.
431 AM CST Mon Dec 12 2016 At 4 AM, a cold front extended from about Texarkana to Cameron to about San Marcos. South of the front, temperatures continue to be very warm and range in the lower to mid 60's. So much is dependent on the timing of the cold front. Low pressure will develop on the front early Tuesday and move east. Another weak front will bring slightly drier and cooler air into SE TX.
The low clouds and fog will gradually thin through the morning as a cold front gradually moves through AR and VFR conditions are expected in the afternoon. Winds will be from the south at 5 to 10 mph ahead of the cold front, then become northwest to north at 5 to 15 mph behind the front.
510 AM CST Mon Dec 12 2016 Clearing is spreading east into the forecast area this morning as drier air advects into the region behind a cold front. Clouds should come back in this evening ahead of the second cold front.
Light snowfall accumulations this morning and wind chill headlines top the highlights in the short term period. Latest water vapor imagery loop shows a deep upper low west of Hudson Bay which will continue to sag southeast with time, reinforcing the arctic air in place across the northern high plains. Bufkit model soundings suggest something closer to the CONSMOS which places the highest sustained winds across the north and weaker winds in the south. Not a real strong signal in cold air advection overlapping the location of the strongest isallobaric forcing, which the high resolution models suggests will reside from southeast Montana into western and central South Dakota.
Models work to build a transitory ridge over the area beginning late Monday.
957 AM CST Mon Dec 12 2016 Light snow is moving quickly through through south central and eastern ND as high pressure builds into the west. Light snowfall accumulations this morning and wind chill headlines top the highlights in the short term period. Latest water vapor imagery loop shows a deep upper low west of Hudson Bay which will continue to sag southeast with time, reinforcing the arctic air in place across the northern high plains. Bufkit model soundings suggest something closer to the CONSMOS which places the highest sustained winds across the north and weaker winds in the south. Not a real strong signal in cold air advection overlapping the location of the strongest isallobaric forcing, which the high resolution models suggests will reside from southeast Montana into western and central South Dakota.
Current pattern continue to be warmer and wetter at this time of year than climatology. And given a weaker pressure pattern in place combined with more low level moisture and lower sun angle, it will take more time in eroding out the lower clouds in the northern counties within the service area. Then for this evening and the overnight periods, light winds combined with warmer temperatures combined with abundant near surface moisture will set us up again for more low clouds and fog again late tonight, mainly after midnight.
A cold front is making progress to the south across South Central Texas early this morning. Solar heating will allow for a warm layer of temperatures off the surface to mix down with highs near to slightly above normal today and well above normal on Tuesday, however, another cold front will be moving across Central Texas late Tuesday afternoon.
/issued 414 AM CST Mon Dec 12 2016/ Early morning radar showed showers along and south of the I-40 corridor, fed by maritime moisture and focused along and ahead of a Pacific cold front. The Pacific cold front will stall along or a bit north of the I-20 corridor later today. An Arctic cold front remains on track for a Tuesday night passage. The Midsouth will remain near the southern periphery of the Arctic airmass, as the pressure ridge center moves east into the northern Ohio Valley from the northern high plains.
The weak cold front is draped right over us from Deep East TX. The Northerly winds will gently ease the front along and just South of I-20 today and then slowly ease moisture back northward ahead of the next cold front arriving during Tuesday for a slight chance for rain showers.
330 AM MST Mon Dec 12 2016 Fast west to northwest flow aloft will remain in place through Tuesday with light orographically driven showers hanging on over the higher terrain. Another push of deeper moisture arrives with this feature, which promises more snowfall for the high country with a mixed bag expected for the valleys.
As the high sinks south the current southeast to southerly wind flow will become southwest to west during the afternoon with unseasonably warm conditions expected. Light winds and slight seas are expected the remainder of today, but a warm and moist airmass overriding the cooler Gulf waters will support areas of dense sea fog, and have already issue a Dense Fog Advisory for the near and offshore waters from Englewood north to the Suwannee River out 60nm including all of the Tampa Bay waters through early Tuesday morning.
Otherwise all terminals VFR w/ a period of gusty W/NW winds aft 19Z as a weak cold front moves thru the area.
705 AM EST Mon Dec 12 2016 Rain will continue to wind down this morning as a cold front crosses the region.
629 AM EST Mon Dec 12 2016 A cold front over our area this morning will move to the east by this afternoon. Generally dry conditions are expected today, though some patchy freezing drizzle or light snow is possible over northern portions of the area this morning.
250 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the Atlantic through Wednesday.
/issued 409 AM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016/ Bermuda ridge pattern to keep steady- state onshore flow in place for the foreseeable future. Still mitigating a large area of runoff and routing through the lower ends of the lake drainage basins. This is generating backwater issues closer to Lake Maurepas simply due to the high volume of runoff. bermuda ridge flow to maintain onshore flow at light to moderate levels.
600 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016 A scattered diurnally-driven cumulus cloud field covers much of our region, with a thicker mid and high level cloud decks prevailing over areas mainly to the southeast of STL metro, and have kept temps a bit cooler as a result, with readings in the 70s. But for STL Metro and areas north and west, temps have risen into the low-mid 80s.
346 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016 Tonight-Wednesday: Relatively quiet weather anticipated with passage of upper trough axis.
This trough is fairly weak but it should be enough to push a decaying frontal boundary southeastward through our area tomorrow.
249 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016 A region of high pressure over North Dakota will keep the short term period quiet through Wednesday. But an approaching cold front will begin an active thunderstorms pattern starting Wednesday night. By Wednesday the high pressure area departs to the east as low pressure in Montana brings return moisture and warmth to the region. An approaching cold front in Saskatchewan will be the focus for scattered thunderstorms by Late Wednesday afternoon Severe weather is not expected Wednesday evening as the better 0-6km shear and cape remain to the north of the region.
502 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the Atlantic through Wednesday.
310 PM PDT TUE AUG 16 2016 High pressure over the west will keep warm and dry conditions in place through most of the week. Expect slightly lower, but still warmer than average, temperatures. The high pressure ridge that produced extreme heat over the lower elevations of the central California interior last weekend has been forced well offshore by a weak upper level trough now situated over the northern part of the state. During the next day or so, the upper level trough will settle southward and the atmosphere will become a little less stable over the highest elevations of the cwa.
147 PM MDT TUE AUG 16 2016 Upper flow over the northern plains is northwesterly as trough shifts out of the region and a weak ridge moves in. Storms will subside early this evening as weak upper ridging moves overhead, and a generally dry night can be expected.
154 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 Low pressure in Michigan will exit the region to the northeast and trail a weak cold front through the Ohio Valley. This front will wash out this evening and then a weak upper level trough will cross the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley late Wednesday. Weak high pressure will then settle over the region for the end of the work week in a continued moist airmass. The cold front washes out this afternoon and is not discernible in the pressure fields after 0z tonight.
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 16 2016 Warm again today, with inland temperatures still several degrees above seasonal averages, then gradually cooler for the second half of the workweek.
A warm, but somewhat unsettled pattern can be expected over the next few days with several disturbances embedded within west-to-northwest flow aloft on the edge of a Four Corners ridge. Thunderstorms likely once again this afternoon with low-level convergence in the vicinity of the Laramie Range and moist upslope over the high plains.
At the surface, a weak trough of low pressure extended across the High Plains. Aloft, a ridge of high pressure remains across the western United States, leaving the High Plains under a zone of northwest flow. However, the ridge of high pressure leading to these hot temperatures will break down as several disturbances collide with the ridge.
1231 PM MDT TUE AUG 16 2016 17z water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicate short wave trough sliding across central Nebraska with a cold front extending from roughly Lincoln Nebraska to Liberal KS. Similar pattern develops tomorrow with lee trough bringing increasing southerly flow with winds increasing to 15 to 20 kts near the KS and CO line during the afternoon. Could see an isolated storm make it off the higher terrain.
Convection has been sparse this afternoon due to dry air aloft and mid-level ridging. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s.
1106 AM PDT Tue Aug 16 2016 High pressure will result in warm and dry weather through the upcoming weekend.
305 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016 Fcst going as expected with main t-storm activity forming in west central MN and far southeastern ND along the main short wave trough.
High pressure will bring hotter temperatures and fewer thunderstorms early this week. As high pressure shifts off to the east, deeper moisture will return along with an increasing chance of thunderstorms the second half of the week. Water vapor imagery shows high pressure across the eastern Pacific waters with the ridge axis extending southeastward and nosing into the northern and central Baja peninsula. Dry mid to upper level dry air associated with the ridge covers a large part of the eastern Pacific waters, central and southern California, much of the Baja peninsula and the southwestern half of Arizona as well as a large part of northern Mexico. WRF models show virtually no activity Wednesday, with the exception of some convection over the White Mountains and also over the lower deserts near Gila Bend.
A trailing weak cold front will slowly push through the area today through tonight.
256 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016 An upper level trough is currently pushing across the central US this afternoon. A drier air mass has spread into the region with the trough which is keeping the rain to the south and east of the area. Temperatures will top out in the low to mid 80s this afternoon. Temperatures will drop into the lower to middle 60s tonight into early Wednesday morning. Wednesday will be dry again with temperatures slightly warmer than today as highs warm into the middle to upper 80s.
301 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016 Surface front stalled out from Arkansas to Ohio will get a little kick from upper trough moving in from the west tonight increasing shower and thunderstorms across our area during the day Wednesday as deep moisture plume continues to feed northward from the Gulf Region.
Precipitable water values will remain above 2 inches across most of the CWA with warm air advection at 850 mb feeding into a trough just north of the area. This will likely continue the chances for a decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms with the bulk of the activity possibly across the northern Hill Country in closer proximity to the 850 mb trough axis. Also, with slightly warmer temperatures tomorrow, the chances for deep convection is higher which could lead to higher rainfall rates from more efficient storms. Temperatures in the short- term will continue to be influenced by the abundant cloud cover and rainfall with highs in the lower 80s to near 90 and lows in the lower to middle 70s.
A collapsing ridge moves into Northeast Montana today that will generate dry conditions tonight. Temperatures, which were close to normal today, trend warmer for Wednesday, into the 90s. Then there will be a significant change in the weather pattern late Wednesday when a cold front moves out of Canada. This trough has cooler air behind it - all the way into the Arctic Ocean region. Then by early evening a distinct cold front pushes into our northern counties. These initial disturbances, along with a large trough off to the west, will begin generating afternoon thunderstorms that become more widespread in the evening. Winds shift to northerly behind the cold front.
This will likely bring an increase in cloud coverage leading to cooler temperatures across the area.
PWATs are a bit lower today with some drier air aloft, while deeper moisture remains west of the area ahead of an upper-level trough and frontal boundary. Microburst parameters are in the low to low-end moderate category. The computer models do suggest that the upper ridge will weaken somewhat over the weekend, allowing a weak front to dip down into our region.
An old convergence boundary behind the cold front exists from southwest IL to southeast MO, edging the southeast of STL metro, and has resulted in small, widely scattered SHRA and TSRA. As for high temperatures, near normal temps in the mid 80s for central/northeast MO while eastern portions of forecast area to remain cooler with highs only in the upper 70s to low 80s. Byrd Tonight weak surface ridging builds in with drier weather for at least the next 36 hours. Then as ridge moves off to the east, southerly flow returns to the region with increasing low level moisture and instability.
An upper level low pressure system over southern Utah will move into the four corners region and weaken later today.
On Wednesday upper and surface ridging from the Atlantic extending west-southwest across the Mid Atlantic coast and into the deep south will remain in control. Ample moisture combined with daytime heating will again support scattered showers and storms developing over inland locations during the late morning and early afternoon with the convection then pushing west toward coastal locations where the highest rain chances and storm coverage should again reside during the late afternoon and early evening hours. The models are in agreement with the weakening upper high along the Carolina coast and inverted trough that develops on the south side of it over the Bahamas Wednesday. the ridge extending into the Carolinas from the Atlantic begins to weaken and drift south.
438 PM MDT TUE AUG 16 2016 Upper flow over the northern plains is northwesterly as trough shifts out of the region and a weak ridge moves in. Storms will subside early this evening as weak upper ridging moves overhead, and a generally dry night can be expected.
Summer will continue today as upper level ridging and weak west to northwest flow aloft remains over the state. an upper level ridge of high pressure will cover the Rocky Mountain Region. with a weak upper level trough of low pressure centered over Nevada. with dry air at the lower levels. This pattern may produce isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms most numerous over the high country.
Temperatures running a few degrees warmer than 24 hours ago with weaker Delta Breeze in place.
1207 PM MDT TUE AUG 16 2016 Upper level analysis has western ridge over the Great Basin with fast northwest flow across the Northern Plains. At the surface, weak surface trof is located across the central Dakotas with high pressure over the northern Rockies. Western upper ridge will slowly progress eastward, with heights increasing across the area. This will lead to slightly warmer temperatures compared to Mondays readings. Shower and storm activity will likely initiate off the higher terrain, then progress southeastward onto the southwest plains of SD late in the afternoon. Upper ridge continues to build into the area tonight with showers and storms over southwest SD diminishing quickly in the evening. By late in the afternoon, upper ridge axis shifts east as weak upper level energy moves in from the northwest.
326 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016 A scattered diurnally-driven cumulus cloud field covers much of our region, with a thicker mid and high level cloud decks prevailing over areas mainly to the southeast of STL metro, and have kept temps a bit cooler as a result, with readings in the 70s. But for STL Metro and areas north and west, temps have risen into the low-mid 80s.
236 PM EDT Tue Aug 16 2016 A weak cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms into Wednesday. Main cold front now entering western Lake Erie with showers and thunderstorms increasing ahead of the front. Still a threat of severe storms as best mid-level support passes by to the north this evening, as well as with available low level instability and shear in the low levels near 30Kts.
622 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 A weak cold front will drop down through the state tonight and stall along the Maryland border. However, the temperatures will not become all that much cooler. along and ahead of the real cold front. The key changes include the complete erosion of the subtropical ridge along and off the East Coast and the evolution of a trough in the central United States.
357 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 A weak cold front will drop down through the state tonight and stall along the Maryland border. However, the temperatures will not become all that much cooler. Line of storms along a weak advance trough making occasional gusts into/near severe. The real cold front - if it can be termed "real" - will be dropping down into the NW co. The key changes include the complete erosion of the subtropical ridge along and off the East Coast and the evolution of a trough in the central United States.
154 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 High pressure will remain centered well off the mid Atlantic and southeast coast through Wednesday.
Approaching cold front will move through the forecast area Wednesday, followed by another over the weekend. Cold front currently over Il slowly inches closer today, but will not cross cwa until Wednesday.
421 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016 Please refer to our web site, Flood Warnings and the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service for details on the major and record river flooding that is still ongoing on the lower end of the Amite River basin along with many areas of backwater flooding from Pointe Coupee Parish (False River area) to near Lake Maurepas. The weather pattern will be a fairly typical summer regime with a low to mid level ridge to the east that will extend near the north Gulf coast with mostly southerly winds from the Gulf of Mexico pumping in moisture.
158 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the Atlantic through Wednesday.
331 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 Seasonably warm conditions will prevail through mid week as a Bermuda ridge keeps a hold of the area.
332 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 Low pressure over southern Lake Huron will move to southern Quebec overnight and should reach Maine by Wednesday morning. A cold front trailing the low will drop southeast across the area through the evening.
255 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016 231 PM CDT High pressure is spreading across the region, and the scattered showers east of I-57 will continue southeast. Fewer clouds could lead to warmer temps, while more cloudy conditions may limit surface warming. Dewpoints in the low 70s will result in heat indices around 90.
For tonight, skies will go generally clear as weak surface and upper level ridging will be in place. Dew point will increase slightly during the day to the mid to upper 60s with highs in the low to mid 80s leading to capes about 1k-1.
High pressure over the west will keep warm and dry conditions in place through most of the week. Expect slightly lower, but still warmer than average, temperatures. The high pressure ridge that produced extreme heat over the lower elevations of the central California interior last weekend has been forced well offshore by a weak upper level trough now situated over the northern part of the state. During the next day or so, the upper level trough will settle southward and the atmosphere will become a little less stable over the highest elevations of the cwa.
Have mentioned VCTS in the TAFs during the highest confidence time for storms to be in the area.