Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
By tomorrow morning, the influence of a longwave trough out of the midwest will increase the chances of showers and storms again on Sunday. /AJ/ The region will remain in a pattern dominated more by the East Coast trough. The result of this will be high chances for rain through the week and cooler temperatures. While there could be some thunderstorms with this activity, most of it should be more showers/heavy rainfall/efficient rainfall given the high PW airmass.
The low will continue to track off to the east tonight with cloud cover decrease from west to east overnight. Sunday, and into early this week, temperatures will stay mild with temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. Temperatures will start to warm into the upper 80s by late week as the upper ridge builds over the central conus. The ridge won't be overly robust and will start to break down by late in the workweek as the next trough works across southern Canada and the Northern Rockies and Plains. After sunset, high pressure will settle into the area with light northerly winds and the possibility of some patchy fog developing after 06Z.
234 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022 Upper level high pressure and ridging will persist over the area for the next few days. Given the lower wind shear and higher PW values (2.
Light and variable winds from this high pressure will continue through the night, with clear skies. Temperatures will climb into the 80s in the east, and low 90s in the west where the thermal ridge nudges into the area. The upper level pattern will turn zonal through the day as the top of the ridge will flatten.
1248 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022 (Today and tonight) Today will be the transition day as a mid/upper-level trough and monsoonal moisture across the southwest U. moves eastward toward the Highs Plains. Ahead of this trough it'll be another seasonably hot afternoon with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s deg F (around average for this time of year). Besides daytime heating, a remnant boundary near the Kansas/Oklahoma border will also serve as a focus for convective development as it drifts southward (aided by a trough across the Midwest).
243 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022 The forecast area remains under the influence of an H5 trough centered over the Midwest. Small lobes of vorticity associated with this trough have kicked off scattered thunderstorm coverage this afternoon across southern and central KY, with some activity impacting the CWA's far southeast counties. The entire region will be dry Sunday night as the front departs the area and high pressure begins to exert its influence. Low temperatures will fall into the lower to middle 60s.
As this front interacts with the mid-level trough to our west, widespread heavy rainfall is likely to occur areawide in the forecast area this afternoon and through the day tomorrow. Temperatures will be cooler tomorrow afternoon due to the rainfall and cloud cover.
1234 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022 (Today through Sunday) Southerly flow will open up the moisture potential along with a long wave trough across the eastern US. and as this rotates around the upper low over the Quebec Providence today and into tomorrow this will provide a greater focus for increased showers and thunderstorms for Middle TN.
302 PM EDT Sat Aug 20 2022 Water vapor imagery highlights a series of retrograding upper level lows over the western North Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico. Satellite derived moisture products and daytime IR/VIS imagery place a handful of moisture slugs and inverted troughs in the easterlies near and upstream from the Keys.
The bulk of the activity should develop in response to the approaching cold front later this evening, which will sink southward overnight.
An upper level trough extends across the Upper Midwest and the Mississippi Valley region this afternoon while an upper level ridge of high pressure stretches westward across the western Atlantic and across the FL peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Westerly flow aloft will increase across our region on Sunday as the upper level trough amplifies over the Great Lakes and the Ohio/ Tennessee Valley region. Locally heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding on Sunday given the high atmospheric moisture content and the potential for slow storm movement/cell mergers. Lows tonight will range in the lower to mid 70s inland and in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees near the coast.
(Rest of Today) Weak frontal boundary that was stalled over north MS into NW/north central AL has now lifted more northward as a warm front into south central TN. This activity is generally moving to the ENE embedded along the southern branch of an upper trough pattern that is gradually traversing across the Midwest/OH Valley regions. The better dynamic forcing looks to remain more displaced to the N/NW in closer proximity to the center of the upper trough axis.
The mid/upper ridge is progged to remain situated across the Central Great Basin region while a mean mid/upper trough encompasses much of the eastern CONUS. Afternoon highs will top out in the low to perhaps mid 90s with lows in the 60s.
A warm front lifted north across the region this morning and brought 70 dewpoints with it. The latest surface analysis places a warm front along the Tennessee and Kentucky border extending west into Oklahoma. Conditions will remain mostly dry overnight before a cold front drops into the Mid-South from SEMO tomorrow morning.
Another hot August afternoon is on tap as upper-level ridge maintains its influence over northern California today. As of noon today, temperatures are running about 1-5 deg F warmer compared to 24 hours ago. An approaching upper-level trough to the Pacific Northwest will promote the return onshore flow to the region on Sunday as the ridge shifts south/east. Temperatures will trend downward with Valley highs ranging from the middle 80s in Delta-influenced areas of Solano County to the low 100s near Red Bluff and Redding.
Valley fog across the Alleghenies and Ridge/Valley Region should lift around 13Z in most spots, then rising 500mb heights should translate to a warm and mostly rain-free Saturday. However, scattered, diurnally-driven convection will remain possible where mid level temps remain a bit cooler over northern Pa. However, all short range models support an increasing chance of showers and possible tsra late tonight across primarily the northwest counties associated with deepening moisture ahead of upstream trough and a lead mid level vort max tracking across the northwest part of the state.
(This evening through Sunday) Current water vapor imagery shows upper troughing across the central and western CONUS. For Sunday afternoon the upper level trough will continue to impact the region.
Much of this activity has developed in the wake of a warm front that moved northward into mid TN earlier today. Some rain chances though will continue into tonight, as an upper trough axis rotates further east into the Midwest/OH Valley regions. The subtropical ridge at the sfc will also maintain a return flow pattern tonight, thereby allowing some Gulf moisture to continue filtering into the central TN Valley.
Global models and their ensembles project that a weak Pacific low pressure trough will slowly intensify over the Inland Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies throughout the upcoming week.
208 PM MDT Sat Aug 20 2022 Latest GOES WV imagery shows a compact vort max spinning over southwest WY and northern UT under the upper level ridge that has built across the northern Rockies. A stationary front continues to be positioned across southeast WY that has brought cooler conditions to the area today. Most spots have remained in the 70s so far this afternoon with portions of the Nebraska Panhandle reaching into the low-80s.
The cutoff H5 low currently over northern UT is continuing to pull increased monsoon moisture back into the western portions of WY, allowing for thunderstorm activity to spark on the higher elevations each afternoon. With the upper level flow wrapping around the low, most thunderstorms will drift to the west this afternoon and again Sunday afternoon. Cooler nights will continue tonight and tomorrow night, with lows in the 40s west of the Divide and mid 50s east.
245 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022 An area of high pressure currently over northern North Dakota will slowly move southeast overnight, bring light winds to this CWA. High temperatures on Sunday should range from the upper 70s, in eastern SD, to the lower 90s, along and west of the Missouri River. A low pressure system approaching the region from the west will bring southerly winds on Sunday night, limiting the potential for fog.
1221 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022 (Today through Sunday afternoon) More rain is on the way as low pressure over NM helps advect monsoonal moisture into West Texas and the Panhandle this afternoon. The upper low will move eastward on Sunday, with the greatest precipitation chances as well as highest flood threat shifting to the northern and eastern Permian Basin. Temperatures today will be slightly cooler than yesterday, with 70s across the west, 80s through the central CWA, and 90s across the east. Sunday's highs will be a degree or two cooler with ample cloud cover.
1257 PM MDT Sat Aug 20 2022 Satellite imagery this afternoon shows an upper low centered over eastern Iowa, upper ridge over the northern Rockies, and northwest flow over our region. Surface models show high pressure centered over South Dakota, and a weak low in central Montana. Highs today will be slightly warmer than yesterday, with upper 70s over the Black Hills to mid-80s over the rest of the forecast area. Dry conditions and a warming trend are expected over the next 48 hours, as the upper ridge slides over the northern plains this afternoon and tonight.
Weak upper low centered over northern Utah this afternoon continues to slowly meander over the area and will eventually wash out as we move into tomorrow. Afternoon temps will top out within a few degrees of climo but overnight lows, like much of this summer, will run on the warmer side of normal.
Stratus stubbornly remains over southwestern MN with low pressure continuing to spin over central/eastern IA, though latest HREF run would indicate these low clouds to diminishing through the late afternoon. Surface ridging will build southward into the area tonight, and with that winds will become nearly calm. High pressure shifts only slowly eastward on Sunday. This will bring continuing light winds, and with 850 mb temperatures a couple of degrees warmer than today, highs will respond accordingly - topping out in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
An area of high pressure currently over northern North Dakota will slowly move southeast overnight, bring light winds to this CWA. High temperatures on Sunday should range from the upper 70s, in eastern SD, to the lower 90s, along and west of the Missouri River. A low pressure system approaching the region from the west will bring southerly winds on Sunday night, limiting the potential for fog.
/issued 234 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022/ Upper level high pressure and ridging will persist over the area for the next few days. Given the lower wind shear and higher PW values (2.
High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern this afternoon and into the evening. Light and variable winds from this high pressure will continue through the night, with clear skies. Temperatures will climb into the 80s in the east, and low 90s in the west where the thermal ridge nudges into the area. The upper level pattern will turn zonal through the day as the top of the ridge will flatten.
As the low-level disturbance passing across our area this evening moves off to the east, we'll see shower and thunderstorm activity decrease west to east overnight.
1023 PM EDT Sat Aug 20 2022 Currently - An Atlantic ridge extends westward across Florida and along the Gulf coast. Short Term Update - The previously mentioned ridging will dominate through the overnight period and maintain moderate to fresh easterly breezes. As a result of the steady ventilation, overnight lows will, outside of convection, struggle to fall into the lower 80s. A ridge across Florida will maintain moderate to fresh mostly easterly breezes on Keys waters through the overnight period.
A ridge will try to build in this weekend, but a trough over the Pacific Northwest will flatten the ridge.
The low will continue to track off to the east tonight with cloud cover decrease from west to east overnight. Sunday, and into early this week, temperatures will stay mild with temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. Temperatures will start to warm into the upper 80s by late week as the upper ridge builds over the central conus. The ridge won't be overly robust and will start to break down by late in the workweek as the next trough works across southern Canada and the Northern Rockies and Plains.
627 PM EDT Sat Aug 20 2022 Upper low crossing the southern Great Lakes will continue to spark showers and storms at times through Sunday.
The forecast area remains under the influence of an H5 trough centered over the Midwest. Small lobes of vorticity associated with this trough have kicked off scattered thunderstorm coverage this afternoon across southern and central KY, with some activity impacting the CWA's far southeast counties. The entire region will be dry Sunday night as the front departs the area and high pressure begins to exert its influence. Low temperatures will fall into the lower to middle 60s.
Still, if activity can develop there along and ahead of the cold front early this evening, severe storms would become likely. And with a weakening LLJ positioned ahead of the cold front, we're not anticipating storms to fester deep into the evening.
(The rest of tonight) A cold front has entered northeast Oklahoma this evening, and an outflow boundary is moving northeast from central into northeast Oklahoma at this time.
Showers and tstms to redevelop over the higher terrain aft 21/18Z as flow aloft becomes nw-nly.
557 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022 Stacked upper low easily seen on visible satellite movie loops right over eastern Iowa. Overnight, skies should remain mostly cloudy with lows in the lower 60s.
215 PM PDT Sat Aug 20 2022 Hot temperatures continue over Central California on Saturday as high pressure in the Eastern Pacific remains strong.
444 PM MDT Sat Aug 20 2022 Satellite imagery this afternoon shows an upper low centered over eastern Iowa, upper ridge over the northern Rockies, and northwest flow over our region. Surface models show high pressure centered over South Dakota, and a weak low in central Montana. Highs today will be slightly warmer than yesterday, with upper 70s over the Black Hills to mid-80s over the rest of the forecast area. Dry conditions and a warming trend are expected over the next 48 hours, as the upper ridge slides over the northern plains this afternoon and tonight.
620 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022 (This evening through Sunday) Current water vapor imagery shows upper troughing across the central and western CONUS. For Sunday afternoon the upper level trough will continue to impact the region.
Ridging has built in over the area today, and as a result, the extensive marine layer fog and stratus from this morning has burned away, leaving southern Oregon and far northern California virtually cloud-free, with the exception of patchy cumulus fields east of the Cascades. Another marine push is likely tonight due to onshore flow ahead of an upper level trough just offshore, but the push is not likely to be as extensive as it was last night. The upper level trough edges closer Sunday, and it does appear that it will arrive close enough to the region to produce some instability east of the Cascades by tomorrow afternoon/evening.
620 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022 The forecast for this afternoon and evening looks on track with a cold front which is currently over northwest Missouri moving southeast through the area tonight. This is where I've forecast the highest chance for precip late this afternoon and evening. Model soundings (particularly the GFS) show an "inverted-V" in the lower levels indicating potential for strong downbursts. Drier air and slightly cooler filters into the region behind the cold front on Sunday.
506 PM MDT Sat Aug 20 2022 Latest GOES WV imagery shows a compact vort max spinning over southwest WY and northern UT under the upper level ridge that has built across the northern Rockies. A stationary front continues to be positioned across southeast WY that has brought cooler conditions to the area today. Most spots have remained in the 70s so far this afternoon with portions of the Nebraska Panhandle reaching into the low-80s.
Lows tonight are expected in the low to upper 60s from north to south. Highs from the low to mid 80s are expected. KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Scattered thunderstorms will continue early in the taf period along the MO/AR border near a weak cold front.
316 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022 Impacts in the short term will remain minimal with quiet weather and light winds as high pressure remains in place across the northern plains. Will see morning fog in the southern valley and lakes country burn off quickly with abundant sun allowing temps to climb into the low 80s today.
Water vapor imagery this morning shows weak northwesterly flow over the region as the H5 trough axis moves off to the east.
Otherwise, it will be a beautiful Sunday with high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s.
High pressure drifting eastward will leave light and variable winds through the day, with only limited afternoon cumulus anticipated.
High pressure located off the California coast will continue today before shifting overhead early into the work week. The best possible chances for showers and thunderstorms look to be along and south of the Mogollon Rim during this time - with the highest activity today before a downturn begins tomorrow as high pressure reigns over the region.
1244 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022 (The rest of tonight) A cold front has entered northeast Oklahoma this evening, and an outflow boundary is moving northeast from central into northeast Oklahoma at this time.
High temperatures today will be a near carbon copy of the high temperatures from Saturday, but with perhaps slightly lower dewpoints which will bring up the comfort level a touch, despite the warm temperatures.
The consensus of guidance has the cold frontal wind shift entering the area around 15Z and then clearing all but the far southeast corner of the region by 00Z.
1140 PM MDT Sat Aug 20 2022 Latest GOES WV imagery shows a compact vort max spinning over southwest WY and northern UT under the upper level ridge that has built across the northern Rockies. A stationary front continues to be positioned across southeast WY that has brought cooler conditions to the area today. Most spots have remained in the 70s so far this afternoon with portions of the Nebraska Panhandle reaching into the low-80s.
Surface analysis depicts high pressure centered over the central Atlantic, with a ridge extending westward across the Florida peninsula into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Aloft, mid level ridging remains dominant across the western Atlantic, Florida and most of the Gulf. While water vapor imagery shows a couple of upper lows spinning near the Yucatan and east of the Bahamas, these features do not appear to be having much impact on the sensible weather. Temps will be hot once again, with highs reaching the lower to mid 90s. Generally nondescript late summer weather will continue through the next few days, with low level easterly flow gradually weakening as the Atlantic ridge retreats further offshore.
We'll begin to see the northeasterly flow aloft move in from the high pressure system positioning to our northwest.
358 AM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022 Upper low crossing the southern Great Lakes will continue to spark showers and storms at times through Today.
1213 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022 Stacked upper low easily seen on visible satellite movie loops right over eastern Iowa. Overnight, skies should remain mostly cloudy with lows in the lower 60s.
More showers and storms will happen Sunday into Sunday night as low pressure moves into and across the region. The mid level trough will continue to dig southeast into our region Sunday into Sunday night. For Sunday, the mid level trough will interact with a destabilizing airmass once again. And with the approach of the cold front providing some low level convergence, showers and thunderstorms are expected, particularly during the afternoon hours. Highs on Sunday will range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Lows Sunday night will drop into the lower to mid 60s.
Tomorrow looks to be more of the same, with the exception being a less ideal environment for fog development as temperatures stay 5 to 7 degrees warmer than dew points. Another day of sunny skies and light winds under high pressure and subsidence will result in highs in the low 80s.
Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms redevelop over the higher terrain aft 21/18Z.
412 AM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022 Showers and thunderstorms will occur as low pressure tracks across the region today and tonight.
242 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022 Overall the short term looks pretty quiet given the broad ridging aloft over the region.
Highs will be in the 80s today with lows in the low to mid 60s tonight.
A weak cold front is pushing across Missouri this morning. The cold front will slowly sag into the Mid- South while an upper trough pivots into the OH Valley.
Some increased mid to high level clouds will bring slightly warmer low temperatures in the 60s.
With increased upper level moisture, scattered high clouds can be expected today with a stray thunderstorm possible this evening over the higher terrain around the Little Rockies.
144 AM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022 Upper low crossing the southern Great Lakes will continue to spark showers and storms at times through Sunday.
1024 PM MDT Sat Aug 20 2022 Satellite imagery this afternoon shows an upper low centered over eastern Iowa, upper ridge over the northern Rockies, and northwest flow over our region. Surface models show high pressure centered over South Dakota, and a weak low in central Montana. Highs today will be slightly warmer than yesterday, with upper 70s over the Black Hills to mid-80s over the rest of the forecast area. Dry conditions and a warming trend are expected over the next 48 hours, as the upper ridge slides over the northern plains this afternoon and tonight.
The cold front attached to this low is pushing through southeastern Missouri and southwestern Illinois away from the CWA, taking the chance for showers and thunderstorms with it. Deep, weak northerly to northwesterly post-frontal flow through today will advect slightly cooler air into the CWA, with afternoon highs expected to top out just below climatological normals. Denser cloud cover on the backside of the low as it pushes into the Ohio Valley will keep our west-central Illinois counties a few degrees cooler than the rest of the area.
The clouds have been filling in across the local area, roughly in the counties along and east of the Mississippi River as they spiral in from the northeast on the backside of an upper low located across NE Illinois. A few brief showers are possible this afternoon, wrapping around from the north on the far western periphery of the upper low, but most of the outlook area will stay dry.
240 AM MDT Sun Aug 21 2022 Broad ridging aloft will prevail over the Tri-State area in this period. A weakening upper level low -- trapped beneath the ridge invof Salt Lake City (per 07Z WV imagery and SPC mesoanalysis data) -- is progged to meander eastward into western CO (today) then S-SSE toward NM (Mon) -- further weakening and/or dissipating thereafter (Mon night-Tue).
Weak upper-level ridging on Monday will tend to warm up the mid levels and put a lid on convective chances, more so in western parts of the lower peninsula.
640 AM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022 Upper low crossing the southern Great Lakes will continue to spark showers and storms at times through Today.