Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Dry conditions under generally clear skies will prevail through tonight as deep layer ridging remains in place across the Southeast. Another warm and dry day will occur on Monday, with highs in the lower 70s across our area, as deep layer ridging prevails over our area. A strong cold front will move into our northwestern areas on Tuesday morning, then southeastward across our area through the remainder of the day.
Otherwise, hi-res models continue to show any convection with the cold front may struggle tomorrow afternoon. Improving conditions should begin around 16Z with the passage of the cold front. Upper air analysis this morning showed a ridge over the middle of the country with the ridge axis extending northward from East Texas. A cold front will move through the region Monday.
Wind speeds on Tuesday will increase as an upper level cyclone passes over the corn belt.
That dry period will be brief though, as the upper low drops into the Midwest and may bring some rain showers into our southern Indiana counties by late afternoon Tuesday.
A cold front will blow into the area in the 11-13z timeframe. /issued 1019 PM CST Sun Mar 4 2018/ Have updated to allow the High Wind Warning to expire. Therefore, have allowed the High Wind Warning to expire. Will continue the High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories for portions of the forecast area through mid evening.
905 PM MST Sun Mar 4 2018 The cooler conditions will not last long as a warming trend will prevail through much of the week as high pressure builds across the intermountain West. Dry and subsident westerly flow aloft has overspread the deserts this afternoon and evening in the wake of a departed upper trof; surface dewpoints continue to fall and as of 8 pm were mostly in the teens and 20s over the central deserts. A fast moving positively tilted trough continues to track eastward into the Central Rockies today while cooler air has temporarily settled into the Desert Southwest. For a change, a deep upper low is forecast to dig southward across the eastern Pacific early this week. By Tuesday, this low will become nearly stationary well west of California and allow for a building ridge over the Western U.
High pressure ridge over the area providing clear skies and light winds. Warming trend commences as high pressure ridge shifts southeast and winds become southwest. Highs will be in the lower 20s with lows in the teens.
946 AM MST Wed Jan 17 2018 Current surface map shows warm front moving into eastern Montana/eastern Wyoming. Warm front continues to move east today, allowing temperatures to climb into the upper 30s to mid 40s for much of the forecast area.
Warmer today with warmer air moving in aloft. Water vapor loop indicated a short wave trough over southern ALTA. Trough will move across southern MAN and will produce light snow/freezing rain mainly over northern MN for tonight.
405 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 Low pressure will exit into the Canadian Maritimes overnight.
1245 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 High pressure passes south of the area through Thursday.
High pressure was centered over the Ark-La-Tex region. The high will slide off to the east tonight keeping skies clear and temperatures will be quite cold again but not as cold as this morning with lows Wednesday morning from around 10 degrees to the mid teens. High pressure will remain south of the region Thursday keeping dry weather and below normal temperatures. Highs will be warmer than today with highs in the mid to upper 30s. The high will be moving east of the forecast area Thursday night allowing winds to become more southerly with milder air moving in.
Freezing rain remains a concern in the valleys of northwest Montana tonight and Thursday morning, so Winter Weather Advisories have been issued with primary concern being black ice on roadways. The overall setup for Thursday and Thursday night's trough has not changed much other than precipitation to have a many hour delay for the onset of precipitation and a general slower movement of the entire weather system.
139 PM PST Wed Jan 17 2018 A high pressure ridge aloft will keep our weather fair and mild through Thursday with above average temperatures and patchy fog along the coast.
Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicates a closed low across the Southern Appalachians. Cold air continues to advect into the Southern Appalachians behind the departing cold front. Winds will remain in the 5-10 mph range across the higher elevations and issued a wind chill advisory for the E TN mountains, SW NC, and Washington and Russell counties in SW VA. Upper level height rises and ample supply of insolation will lead to warmer temperatures.
Looking at observations across the area, we can only find one spot that is even remotely close to reaching the freezing mark and that is Eufaula. Otherwise all locations are still well below freezing even with full sun exposure. Surface winds diminish tonight with high pressure sliding toward the area from the west. Low level winds remain out of the north, and with clear skies, temperatures will fall into the low to mid teens areawide.
315 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 High pressure will build into the region through Thursday, bringing fair skies but cold temperatures.
Clouds will accompany a warm front today, along with a slight chance of rain and snow over the higher elevations of Baker County. High temperatures will be 3-6 degrees warmer than yesterday. Areas of valley fog this morning, locally dense in the Treasure Valley, otherwise mild and generally dry today as a weak warm front passes through. Later Thursday the storm's cold front will move inland with widespread rain and high-mountain snow in eastern Oregon and the west central Idaho Mountains. The cold front will bring an end to the warm weather.
High pressure aloft will move east across the Great Basin through Thursday.
Arctic high pressure centered over the northern Ozarks will shift into the Deep South over the next 36 hours. Snowpack will keep high temperatures below freezing area wide today.
Large dome of arctic high pressure over the deep south continues to bring bitter cold low temperatures tonight and dangerous wind chill values. Although wintry weather precipitation has ended, many roads, bridges and overpasses are expected to see lingering ice which will continue to make for dangerous driving conditions. Thursday will continue cold, but temperatures look to recover to well above freezing.
337 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 High pressure centered over the Plains will build into the Tennessee Valley this evening. Southwest flow around this high will result in a gradual warming trend through the work week. This high will provide dry weather and moderating temperatures.
A ridge of high pressure will provide continued mild weather for the region today and Thursday.
Expect temps to warm to the lower 30s, tempered by the fresh widespread snow field.
1212 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 High pressure will build into the region this afternoon through Thursday, bringing clearing skies but cold temperatures.
1134 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018 Data analysis early this morning has a ridge of high pressure moving slowly east across the region while low pressure tracks across southern Canada. A few altocumulus/patches of cirrus associated with the low were passing across areas north of I-94, otherwise it was mostly clear and very cold across the area.
Latest water vapor imagery shows that an upper level trough has pushed east of the forecast area, and thus, clouds have also move off to the south and east. Expect high pressure and a dry air mass to continue to build into the region allowing for skies to remain clear with VFR conditions.
Further south and east, snow should have less impacts as temps closer to freezing.
Per favorable dewpoint depressions, and with a continuance of freezing temps, patchy freezing MVFR to IFR fog possible at least at CKV/MQY/CSV 18/01Z-18/15Z.
The cold front will also bring gusty northwest winds through around 00z before slightly decreasing overnight.
Winds are expected to continue to gradually increase through the morning and into the afternoon with temperatures reaching the 30s in most of eastern Nebraska as the high drifts toward the lower Mississippi Valley. Slightly cooler temperatures in the mid to upper 20s will linger in southwest Iowa.
1015 AM MST Wed Jan 17 2018 Overnight water vapor imagery showed a upper trough axis from the eastern Great Lakes to the lower MS Valley. A upper ridge dominated much of the western CONUS. Skies were clear with temperatures 15 to 25 degrees warmer compared to 24 hours ago. There is good model/ensemble consensus progging the upper ridge to gradually translate east across the Rockies into the Great Plains.
155 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018 High pressure will move off to the east, allowing for return southerly flow, and "warmer" temps through the end of the work week.
A warm front over the northern half of Washington has brought light rain and snow to the east slopes of the WA Cascades and the Kittitas Valley this morning. Precipitation will taper off as the warm front and associated moisture lift northward. Fog has developed in the lower elevations throughout the forecast area, and dense fog has been observed in Walla Walla and the Kittitas Valley. As the warm front lifts north, gradients will temporarily weaken this afternoon but increase tonight ahead of the approaching cold front.
157 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 Upper air pattern consists of a deep 500 mb trough over the ern U.
This has resulted in a nice rebound in temperatures with several locations now at or above freezing after a very cold start to the day. Dunn /Thursday through Wednesday/ The upper level pattern will transition into a more progressive regime with long wave troughs moving into the country from the Pacific. The gates to the arctic will close off and the arctic high pressure cell will gradually dissipate over the Deep South by the end of the week. All of this spells a different (and warmer!) weather pattern that will take hold by this weekend. Another chilly day is in store for Thursday, but with light winds and full sunshine, the highs near 50 in the west and the low 40s in the east will not feel too bad.
We will spend the entire short term period north of this high, with the return flow already in place this morning going nowhere through tonight. With plentiful sunshine expected, along with a favorable southwest wind direction, did boost highs closer to the warmer MAV/MET numbers, with highs in the mid 30s expected out in west central MN. Tonight, we will see continued WSW winds, so no significant temperature drop is expected and again favored the temperature forecast toward the warmer end of the model envelope.
Short Term (Tonight): Cold front progressing quickly southward through the Florida Peninsula this afternoon. The low temperature forecast for tonight was lowered by an additional degree from our previous forecast, based on the latest guidance.
333 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018 Temperatures back above freezing and roads mostly open with a few hold outs that were more heavily iced or with pooled water that froze and these should thaw out this afternoon. High pressure over OK will slide down into LA/MS Thursday afternoon which should allow winds to turn to the east and warm up to get underway.
Due to low probabilities of ice in the clouds, precip may fall as freezing rain/drizzle though QPF amounts are quite light - only a couple hundredths of an inch.
The RAP model shows this warmer air spreading southeast through the Cntl high plains this afternoon. The best chance for 40s is across Nrn Neb and the Panhandle, closest to the thermal ridge, and where mixing processes will be maximized. H850mb temperatures rise into the low single digits Celsius. This was a few degrees warmer than the straight guidance blend, but perhaps not warm enough given that warm air will continue to spread into Wrn and Ncntl Neb.
447 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 High pressure will build into the region through Thursday, bringing fair skies but cold temperatures.
239 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 High pressure passes south of the area through Thursday.
Arctic sfc ridging will linger over the region this afternoon and tonight, before slowly shifting ESE into the Lower MS Valley Thursday. /issued 1042 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018/ Temperatures continue to slowly climb out of the teens late this morning with all areas reaching into the lower 20s here in the next hour or so. Of course with snowpack still on ground, rise in temperatures will be slowed and thus only expecting highs by this afternoon to make it near the freezing mark in the lower to mid 30s.
1235 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 High pressure will build into the region this afternoon through Thursday, bringing clearing skies but cold temperatures.
Temperatures will still be quite cold over the rest of the area, with lows by Thursday morning in the lower 20s, and teens in the Brownwood area.
Several readings were well below zero as Arctic high pressure settled over the Ozarks.
The 08Z surface chart shows 1043 mb of high pressure centering across eastern OK/extending into southwest MO. The models grab this high and build it southeastward across the lower Mississippi river valley over the course of the short term forecast period. Currently, satellite shows a slug of moisture in association with the upper trof axis slinging across the FA. With the high will come increasing sunshine, and this should assist ice and snow melt, even though air temps will remain below freezing for another day. Clear skies tonight mean one more night of single digit cold is possible, but then we start to warm up as the high shifts ever eastward and upper heights begin to build as well.
Clear skies and winds from the west shifting to the southwest this afternoon will push temps into the low to mid 20's. WAA will not be overly strong today and despite expecting ample sun today, have trended twd the cooler guidance given the snow cover. Still, with MOS being too warm recently, possibly due to climo, have trended twd the cooler guidance.
Most of Central Alabama will not warm above freezing today. Surface winds diminish tonight with high pressure sliding toward the area from the west. Low level winds remain out of the north, and with clear skies, temperatures will fall into the low to mid teens areawide.
1257 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 Low pressure near Hudson Bay will slide southeast into Quebec by tonight. Meanwhile high pressure over the Ohio Valley will sink south towards the Gulf Coast. A prolonged period of southwest flow along with an upper level ridge building across the eastern United States will lead to a gradual warming trend into this weekend. Upper level high pressure from the Plains is expected to build east across the area over the next 24 to at least 36 hours resulting in a warming trend across the region. Temperatures tomorrow are expected to be around 10 degrees warmer compared to this afternoon.
By the weekend high temperatures will be in the lower to middle 40s. Surface ridging overnight will lead to mainly clear skies and cold conditions. On Thursday a brief flat upper level ridge will reside over the region as the next short wave moves through the central Great Lakes.
opted to stick to the cooler side of guidance. but would not be surprised if a few locations rise warmer than forecast where any remaining snow is very sparse. High pressure aloft will be in control of the local pattern to start the extended periods.
Only a few sites have reached freezing today, mainly those along the I-59 corridor. However, they will be quickly back below freezing within the next hour as we begin to lose insolation. Of course, that also means temperatures will still be dangerously low, with most areas expected to bottom out in the lower teens. Tomorrow under full sun, we should see the entire area return to above freezing, though some locations may only make it into the mid to upper 30s across the Delta and Hwy 82 corridor.
952 AM PST Wed Jan 17 2018 A high pressure ridge aloft will keep our weather fair and mild through Thursday with above average temperatures and patchy fog along the coast.
This means most locations will either not get above freezing at all, or only reach 33 or 34 degrees for a 2 to 3 hour period, and this is indicated in the latest Hard Freeze Warning update. A strong inversion is also noted around 960mb which is indicative of strong cold air advection taking place in the low levels of the atmosphere.
245 PM MST Wed Jan 17 2018 An upper level ridge of high pressure over the region today will slowly move eastward tonight as a Pacific cold front approaches the region.
915 AM MST Wed Jan 17 2018 Upper ridge will continue to dominate the short term period, resulting in dry conditions and warming temperatures.
230 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018 At 2 PM, a tight southwest surface pressure gradient was bringing slightly warmer air into the region from the Central Plains. For tonight, a short wave ridge will build across the region. With 925 mb temperatures around 3C warmer than this afternoon, the high temperatures should easily climb into the lower and mid-30s on Thursday afternoon. This should allow the low water snow content to compress even more.
243 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 In the wake of a strong upper level disturbance and associated arctic cold front, a moderating arctic high pressure over the Southern US will gradually build east into the area through Thursday night.
Many roads have dried out overnight though still some patchy bridge issues. The area's Hard Freeze Warning and Wind Chill Advisory will remain in effect until 10 AM, and will extend the Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM due to the numerous reports of ice still on lots of area roadways (mainly bridges/overpasses) and associated road closures.
A warm front over the northern half of Washington has brought light rain and snow to the east slopes of the WA Cascades and the Kittitas Valley this morning. Precipitation will taper off as the warm front and associated moisture lift northward. Fog has developed in the lower elevations throughout the forecast area, and dense fog has been observed in Walla Walla and the Kittitas Valley. As the warm front lifts north, gradients will temporarily weaken this afternoon but increase tonight ahead of the approaching cold front. Cold front sweeping through Thursday morning should clean out any residual low ceilings from the basin.
400 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018 Despite full sunshine today, temperatures have struggled to reach the freezing mark in many locations due to much of the snowpack left over from yesterday. With southerly winds returning, daytime highs on Thursday will rebound into the lower end of the 40s while overnight lows fall back into the 20s over much of the area.
These will exit eastward during the evening and allow a broad short wave ridge to force a subsidence inversion over Lower Michigan later in the night. Warmer air is moving into this region on increasing southwest flow but satellite indicates no low clouds anywhere to our west.
220 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018 Little in the way of sensible weather is forecast for tonight and tomorrow with warmer weather on the way.
Thus will mention patchy blowing snow until temperatures reach the lower 30s. Southwest to westerly winds today will bring above normal temperatures into the region with highs likely reaching the mid 20s, to the lower 40s.
Thick snowpack in the lower Milk River valley limiting warmth from Malta to Glasgow this afternoon where temperatures are stuck in the teens and lower 20s. This moisture will gradually move east as this low (or at least it remnants) move inland. A warm front, then cold front will move across the area associated with a surface that is moving east well to our north. Moisture will focus on the cold front Thursday Night that could bring light rain and/or freezing rain then snow. Amounts looks to be light but of course, a coating of freezing rain could have a large impact, so this will be watched over the next 24 to 36 hours.
Strong veering thru 700mb would further encourage warmer weather across KS, especially across Western KS, but with such a cold start, most areas would struggle to reach 30 to 35 this afternoon. This would induce the lower-deck trof from Eastern CO to Eastern NM to strengthen considerably. Coupled with fairly strong mid-level regime highs will take off with Thu's highs likely reaching the lower 50s west of K-14 while Southeast KS rebounds into the mid 40s. Highs ranging 50 to 60 are likely on Fri with the warmer temps at KGBD & KRSL.
452 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 Clearing and cooler tonight behind the front. Dry high pressure will maintain fair weather late week into the weekend, with moderating temperatures this weekend.
1024 AM MST Wed Jan 17 2018 A weak disturbance will ride through the persistent Great Basin ridge and bring widely isolated snow showers to the highest elevations of the northern mountains today. The Great Basin ridge will move east and over western CO Thursday afternoon. Following passage of the ridgeline, southwest winds will gradually increase aloft by sunset Thursday.
1226 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 High pressure centered over the Plains this morning will build into the Tennessee Valley. Southwest flow around this high will result in a gradual warming trend through the work week.
Gusty easterly winds and cooler temperatures will continue today.
As of 11z, Canon City and Walsenburg have jumped into the lower 30s, while single digits above/below zero lurk just east over the plains. Overnight, lee trough deepens with weak upper wave moving across the region, which should lead to slightly stronger winds and warmer mins at most locations as mixing will be better and inversions weaker.
1252 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 Temperatures will gradually warm through the latter part of the week and into the weekend with high pressure remains in control. Further clearing is expected west to east overnight, but clouds and potential for light snow should last longest over the highest elevations. Despite high pressure nosing in at the surface and modest warming in the mid-levels, the pressure gradient aloft will lend itself to maintaining wind, especially over the Ridges tonight. We may need a Wind Chill Advisory for at least the higher terrain tonight. Otherwise, this quick trough should result in little more than additional clouds across northern zones.
1122 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 High pressure passes south of the area later today through Thursday.
Thicknesses today will undergo modest gains even as a weak trough passes to our west in decaying NW flow.
Meanwhile, a cold front continues to race southeastwards through the Gulf of Mexico towards the Florida Keys. Forecast - Winds are expected to pick up a bit late this afternoon due to a Florida west coast surge, but the real increase will take place this evening as the cold front blasts through the Keys. Expect overnight lows to bottom out broadly in the lower 50s. Over the following few days, the high pressure system responsible for the strong northerlies will spread eastward along the southern states into the extreme southeastern United States.
312 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 Upper air pattern consists of a deep 500 mb trough over the ern U.
This activity should diminish this afternoon as the upper trof axis passes off to our east and low level moisture wanes. Otherwise, latest water vapor imagery showing broad upper trough oriented along the Ohio River Valley this hour. At the surface, have a 1044 mb high pressure centered over the Central Plains, with a ridge axis over the region. Ridging moves into the Midwest to close out the work week, promising a continued warming.
The deep upper trough that brought our most recent arctic plunge is lifting out to the northeast. A northward shift in the jet, as western CONUS troughing develops, will allow temps to modify rather quickly as this week wears on.
353 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018 Latest sfc analysis was indicating large ridge center settling southward acrs the mid to lower MS RVR Valley, with southwesterly flow acrs the region in it's northwestern flank pressure gradient. A clipper system dives into the GRT LKS on Thu while upstream upper ridge axis nudges acrs the plains for continued moderating temp regime into the weekend.