Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
400 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015 500 MB TROUGH AXIS IS JUST WEST OF OUR CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL REPORT AS FREEZING LEVELS STEADILY LOWER THRU THE EVENING HOURS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FREEZING LEVELS ARE ABOUT 11.
305 PM MDT MON JUN 8 2015 ENJOY THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
445 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015 COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
AFTER BECOMING THE EARLIEST LANDFALLING TROPICAL CYCLONE ON RECORD FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE MOISTURE INCREASE CONTINUES (ALBEIT SLOWLY INITIALLY) WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NOW UP TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
245 PM MDT MON JUN 8 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TOMORROW. CAPES WILL INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EAST TO THE PALMER DIVIDE.
654 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ORGNL DISC: LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC TONIGHT. EXPECT A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
506 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. A FEW HOURS OF TRAINING HAVE PROMPTED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OVER PORTIONS OF THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. AND EXPANSION BEING CONSIDERED INTO THE LOWER SUSQ AT PRESENT AT LINE BEARS DOWN ON THE HARRISBURG METRO AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE/PWATS ARE FORECAST TO HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY IN THE DAY SO THE POTENT TROUGH WILL BE WORKING ON AN INCREASINGLY DRY AIRMASS. HIGHS IN THE LOWERS 70S TO LOWER 80S FROM NW TO SE WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE. AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY LATER TUESDAY.
517 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. A FEW HOURS OF TRAINING HAVE PROMPTED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OVER PORTIONS OF THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. AND EXPANSION BEING CONSIDERED INTO THE LOWER SUSQ AT PRESENT AT LINE BEARS DOWN ON THE HARRISBURG METRO AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE/PWATS ARE FORECAST TO HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY IN THE DAY SO THE POTENT TROUGH WILL BE WORKING ON AN INCREASINGLY DRY AIRMASS. HIGHS IN THE LOWERS 70S TO LOWER 80S FROM NW TO SE WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE. AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY LATER TUESDAY.
In addition, locally moderate west winds will continue, especially over the higher terrain of northwest Montana into early this evening.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL DROP DROP INTO THE ERN GULF WITH LOW TO MID LAYER SW FLOW AND PWATS INCREASING TO 1.
432 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN THE REGION TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
627 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. TRAINING CELLS PROMPTED TWO FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS COVERING PORTIONS OF THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. BEST THREAT REMAINS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WHERE HELICITY IS MAXIMIZED. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE/PWATS ARE FORECAST TO HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY IN THE DAY SO THE POTENT TROUGH WILL BE WORKING ON AN INCREASINGLY DRY AIRMASS. HIGHS IN THE LOWERS 70S TO LOWER 80S FROM NW TO SE WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE. AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY LATER TUESDAY.
MEDIUM WEAK RIDGING EARLY ON THEN 850 WAA GETS UNDERWAY AND PRONOUNCED THERMAL RIDGING EXTENDS INTO THE AREA AS THE DAY WEARS ON. 925 TEMPS WARM INTO THE 22-25C RANGE WITH THE NAM EVEN A SMIDGE WARMER IN THE WESTERN CWA.
433 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING OVERHEAD TUESDAY.
317 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015 A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE/PWATS ARE FORECAST TO HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY IN THE DAY SO THE POTENT TROUGH WILL BE WORKING ON AN INCREASINGLY DRY AIRMASS. HIGHS IN THE LOWERS 70S TO LOWER 80S FROM NW TO SE WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE. AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY LATER TUESDAY.
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO COME THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE MAINLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z, WITH POP'S DROPPING OFF CONSIDERABLY AFTER 06Z AND GONE ALTOGETHER AFTER 12Z.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT PLAINS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS AS WELL. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO EXIST LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES AS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. LATER TONIGHT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA.
318 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT.
SOME SCT CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO FIRE IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE LATE MORNING BUT BULK OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF GIVEN LOSS OF SYNOPTIC FORCING AND EASTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF BETTER THETA-E RIDGE. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SOUTHEASTWARD EXIT OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS BY LATE EVENING AND HAVE THEREFORE REMOVED MENTIONABLE POPS AFTER 06Z. EXPECT COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. IN COLLABORATIVE EFFORT HAVE DROPPED POPS CONSIDERABLY SAT WITH MORE NOTABLE DIGGING OF PLAINS TROF AND PASSAGE OF FRONTAL WAVE THROUGH LWR GRTLKS WITH BRIEF RESPITE AMID COLD POOL OUTFLOW FROM FRI/FRI NIGHT CONVECTION. UPPER TROUGH AXIS THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.
334 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC TONIGHT. EXPECT A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
200 PM PDT MON JUN 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HOT WEATHER TO INLAND AREAS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH PRES ALOFT THAT WAS OVER THE REGION MON WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE SE TONIGHT AND TUE. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED. STRENGTHENING THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW FOR WED. WHILE KEEPING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE NW. EXPECT TO SEE INLAND VALLEY TEMPS DOWN TO THE LOWER 80S. THE NW FLOW WILL BE MOST CONDUCIVE TO GETTING MARINE CLOUDS UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA VALLEY AND PERHAPS INTO THE N WILLAMETTE VALLEY. WITH MARINE CLOUDS ON THE COAST LIKELY SPREADING UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA IN THE MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING TO ORIENT ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/CONFLUENCE AXIS FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY TO JUST WEST OF THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED QUITE NICELY WITH READINGS ALREADY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. FCST MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE HIGH RES WRF/HRRR BOTH SHOW A RATHER UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 2 KJ/KG. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING SLIGHTLY WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH VERTICAL TOTALS INCREASING TO > 26 ARE EXPECTED BY 00Z ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR WHERE THE GREATER THREAT FOR STRONG/SVR STORMS EXISTS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES LATER THIS EVENING. THE THREAT LOOKS RATHER MARGINAL GIVEN LESS SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SHEARING TROUGH AXIS.
SCATTERED/BROKEN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WITH A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH MISSOURI INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
307 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015 PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE. THE COLD FRONT STRUGGLES TO GET TOO FAR S AND NOT VERY FAST AND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL GA AREA.
1256 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015 UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS IOWA TODAY AND WILL PROVIDE THE IMPACTS FOR TODAY. AS THE TROF PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THE THERMAL TROF WILL CROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING WITH WARM ADVECTION BY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY WILL SEE THE WARMEST TEMPS WITH HIGHS MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 90S.
SE GA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF GOOD SUBSIDENCE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF OF GA COAST. THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW THE DIFFUSE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO PUSH FURTHER WESTWARD THIS EVENING INTO THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND SUWANNEE VALLEY GENERATING NO MORE THAN ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION (20-30 PCT) WITH JAX AND TBW SOUNDING PWS 1. A LONGWAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE EAST OF 301 IN NE FL WHERE SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS (60-70% POPS. WEAK UPPER TROF WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND EASTERN GULF OF MEX THRU WED NIGHT.
349 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015 AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 90S AREAWIDE BEFORE THE RAINS BEGAN OVER THE LAFAYETTE AREA OF SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT FURTHER SOUTHWEST AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA.
1105 AM MDT MON JUN 8 2015 THE HIGH MAKING UP THE REX BLOCK IN THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY THEN GRADUALLY MERGE WITH SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS RIDGE ON TUESDAY. STRONG ASCENT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING TODAY LEAVING ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION TO FORM ALONG THE RIDGETOPS.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY RELATIVELY DRIER AIR.
259 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2015 Upper trough axis was into central Missouri per early afternoon water vapor imagery with subsidence into eastern Kansas. Deeper mixing behinds this trough bringing drier air aloft down with dewpoints nearing 50F in north central Kansas.
A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
332 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THAT WILL MOVE TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUE. WITH ALL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND.
142 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015 A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXITING. THE COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SHORT LIVED. WITH THE SURFACE FLOW TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY ONCE AGAIN FOR MID WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
242 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. A COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED FROM NEW ENGLAND. WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 70S. AREA RADARS SHOW CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS MAINTAINED ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE HAIL THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO THE HIGH FREEZING LEVEL AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BEFORE ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WEST REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING UPPER TROF AXIS MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND COMBINED WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL BRING A QUICK END TO PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGING TEMPORARILY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE GTLKS SAT BRINGING A BRIEF RESPITE FROM PRECIPITATION. UPPER TROUGH AXIS THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.
420 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015 A COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.
IT APPEARS THAT A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS IN STORE FOR OUR REGION, WITH THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL BERMUDA RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH PROVIDING THE AREA WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. THE HIGHEST POP (50 PERCENT) IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INLAND FL PANHANDLE, SOUTHEAST AL, AND SOUTHWEST GA, WHERE THERE IS MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME Q-G FORCING AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.
221 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING OVERHEAD TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ALLOWING FOR A WARMER DAY. LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS BACK TO CENTRAL INDIANA. CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE. GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.
1136 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 WE SHOULD SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES TONIGHT AS LEE TROF CONTS TO DEEPEN AS SHORT- WAVE TROUGH RAPIDLY MOVES THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOV THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SC TRAIL THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW EVE/NIGHT GIVEN THE COND PRES DEF ON THE 280 AND 285 K SFCS. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF DZ BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
They should then level off or even rise a degree or two as the high pressure shifts eastward and southerly winds commence. Temperatures should climb into the lower to mid 50s through the day. A low pressure system will move northeast across the Midwest Sunday night dragging a cold front to near the MO/IL border by daybreak Monday. With the continued southerly winds, temperatures will be much warmer Sunday night, only dropping into the lower to mid 40s.
Strong Sub-tropical upper jet streak ahead of wave should provide enough lift for isolated showers this afternoon with slightly better precipitation coverage tonight across SE OK/NW AR as low level moisture continues to increase ahead of cold front.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE A RATHER TRANQUIL DAY ACROSS THE REGION. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AS THE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST KY. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3.
215 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015 AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE AREA. THE HIGH PRESURE CENTER HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST TO EASTERN TENNESSEE. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE SUNDAY. MODELS DO AGREE IN MAINTAINING A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA AS THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES. PERIOD STARTS OFF A TOUCH COOLER AND ON THE DRY SIDE AS A SYSTEM SLIDES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES ITS PLACE THAT WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY FOR CHRISTMAS EVE DAY BUT IT WILL NOT LAST LONG.
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY MONDAY ALLOWING A RAPID MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY.
MORNING CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY PAYS A VISIT.
331 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA.
139 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U. WE WILL SEE INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALL WEEK LONG AS A BROAD TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL U.
A WARM FRONT ACROSS WESTERN SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THIS EVENING. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND FREEZING AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED THEN FALL TO AROUND 20 BY CHRISTMAS WEEKEND. SOME STRATUS CLOUDS WILL SINK IN FROM THE NORTH AS A WEAK TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION.
246 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015 SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER MONDAY WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LURKING OVER THE REGION.
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AS A 500MB TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHWEST MEXICO MOVES EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE TO EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI BY MORNING. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MT TO ID. TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUN. MODEL SOUNDING IN THE EASTERN ZONES INDICATE SOME DRYING IN THE LOWER LAYERS WHILE MID LAYERS REMAIN SATURATED. WILL KEEP FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE EASTERN ZONES TOWARD MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE AREA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET NORTH OF THE AREA. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS STILL DIGGING ONTO THE WEST COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE THE BEST MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS. SO WILL INCLUDE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MIXED WITH SLEET/SNOW FOR THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT THANKS TO CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.
A DEEP RIDGE COMPLEX EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO THE GREAT LAKES. A CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BUILT INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. SO IT FEELS MUCH COOLER OUTSIDE.
EXPECTING WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AS A RESULT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA TONIGHT BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY. MOST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO COCONINO COUNTY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH NOON SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM A TRACE UP TO ONE INCH WITH THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH DAYTIME HIGHS QUITE A BIT LOWER.
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SUNDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND COOLER 700 MB TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TODAY AND IT WILL FEEL NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY THANKS TO SOME SUNSHINE AND MUCH LIGHTER WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING WAA PATTERN TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. PRIMARILY OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND ST.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TODAY AND IT WILL FEEL NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY THANKS TO SOME SUNSHINE AND MUCH LIGHTER WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT WHICH ALLOWS WAA PATTERN TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. WARMER MOST AREAS IN THE 40S AND NEAR 50 IN SOUTHEAST. RAIN WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS BY MIDDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY REACHING THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL CONVERGE WITH THE WARM.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U. THE RIDGE PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z MONDAY AS THE DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE MID AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE TODAY TEMPS BEGIN TO REBOUND WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 50S AND 60S TODAY.
1158 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 AVIATION AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY PROVIDING A DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER IN COLORADO ON SUNDAY AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY.
1214 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY.
ESPECIALLY WHERE A FRESH DUSTING OF SNOW EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTH AND IN THE RIDGES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD SUNDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT WITH THE LOW PETERS OUT ON ARRIVAL.
06Z TAF SET VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
BUT HAVING A HARD TIME AT THE MOMENT CROSSING THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STRATTLING THE CWA. THAT WILL CHANGE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND SW FLOW TAKES OVER. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO MOISTEN UP THE LOWER LEVELS. DESPITE THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
UPDATED THE HOURLY VALUES TO FIT CURRENT TRENDS AND LOWERED THE LOWS BY 1 TO 2 DEGREES AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS.
Highs today will be mild and from 55 to 60 degrees, except slightly cooler from around Dodge City to Jetmore where lingering snow pack will likely melt mostly away. This wave will bring a cold front across western Kansas in the evening with winds shifting to the northwest 10 to 20 mph.
As the pressure gradient tightens between a departing high and an approaching cold front, southerly winds will increase into the 15 to 25 mph range. Even with a lack of full sunshine, strong WAA will boost high temperatures well above normal for this time of year into the lower to middle 50s. Cold front approaching from the west will interact with an increasingly moist low-level airmass characterized by surface dewpoints rising into the lower to middle 40s to produce widespread rain showers tonight.
THE DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM APPROACHING LOW LEVEL TROF WL PRODUCE INCREASING AREAS OF -RA AND -L ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING. SURGE OF WARMER AIR INTO SRN WI WL RESULT IN ALL LIQUID WITH MIXTURE REMAINING TO THE NORTH THRU TONIGHT. MEDIUM MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING LOW PRESSURE RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. WITH THE MOISTURE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET.
A broad low amplitude large scale trough will dominate area through the short term period.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING MOST OF THE DAY BUT EXPECTING INCREASING SKY COVER FROM SW TO NE AS THE RIDGE MOVES FURTHER AWAY. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER THAN THEY ARE THIS MORNING. ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 DEGREES WARMER. GENERAL BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN 2/3S OF THE COUNTRY. A SERIES OF SEVERAL WEAK TROUGHS WILL SWING THROUGH THE LARGER OVERALL PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THE WESTERN SIDE OF RIDGE CENTERED IN THE WEST ATLANTIC EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EASTERN SEABOARD. THE CWA WILL BE CAUGHT IN A SHEAR ZONE BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WHERE EACH ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHS SENDS BOUTS OF RAIN THROUGH.