Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
700 AM EDT Thu Mar 24 2022 A cold front will slowly move through the area today with showers mainly in the central and eastern portions of the forecast area. Cold front will slowly move through the forecast area through this afternoon. Expect rain to end late this afternoon as 850 mb winds turn westerly and the cold front moves to the coast late this evening. With the upper trough still well west of the area cloud cover will be slow to diminish. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the mid to upper 60s and with cold air advection over the region tonight lows will be in the low 40s west with mid to upper 40s in the east.
Otherwise, temperatures will top out cooler than normal again today and tonight. Global models depict a closed low system over the Great Lakes with an amplifying ridge over the western CONUS and a weak trough ejecting out of the east coast off into the Atlantic. This pattern will sustain a warmer and drier airmass over the southeast region, allowing for mostly clear and dry conditions through the first half of the work week.
1025 AM EDT Thu Mar 24 2022 Surface cool front is analyzed roughly from SGJ-north of Tampa though this may be better described as a pre-frontal trough/outflow boundary from earlier convection. The leading edge of the more noticeable cooler/drier air remains farther NW, across the central panhandle. Sfc heating is occurring across central and southern sections with temps in the lower 80s and dewpoints in the lower 70s. Max temps will hold in the mid 70s across Lake/Volusia counties due to clouds/precip and frontal trough passage this aftn. Much warmer across the south reaching the mid 80s, possibly upper 80s. Both NAM and GFS models show south winds increasing near 20 knots over the offshore waters by early this aftn ahead of the cold front.
Warmer weather is finally arriving. High temperatures today will be 10 to 20 degrees warmer than yesterday, and the warming trend will continue over the weekend.
/issued 232 AM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022/ An upper level low pressure system remains parked over the middle part of the United States this morning. Expect highs in the lower 50s to mid 60s.
410 AM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022 (Issued 410 AM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022) Today through Friday: The southwest to northeast oriented occlusion will slowly move newd today from srn Lake MI into Ontario, but troughing will remain in its wake. There may be some snow mixing with the rain at times but no snow accum expected as temps will remain above freezing.
609 AM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022 (Today) Strange looking upper air pattern over the CONUS continues, with an elongated upper trough extending NE to SW from the Great Lakes clear down into northern Mexico. Smaller scale PV maxes continue to rotate about the broader trough. One vort was dropping south out of KS and could produce some light sprinkles or flurries across NE OK, while another vort lifting northeast across AR could bring some light rain/sprinkles or light snow/flurries to the higher terrain areas of NW AR thru around sunrise. By this afternoon, the broad upper trough will finally be on the move to the east, while one final vort max drops south from MO toward northeast AR.
A reinforcing cold front will move through the area over the next 6 hours, with northwest winds developing in its wake. This morning, a reinforcing cold front will quickly push through the area, leading to the development of a persistent northwest wind in its wake.
/Issued 351 AM EDT Thu Mar 24 2022/ The short term models are in good agreement, lifting the upper level low to our west through the Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes area by tonight. The upper level trough will slowly move through the area through the short term period. A reinforcing cold front will move through the area overnight with cooler air across the area tomorrow. Mostly clear skies will prevail across much of the area today with low POPs and showers expected across east central Georgia as the cold front exits the area.
Strong high pressure will bring unseasonably warm conditions to the state through the weekend.
The weak DCVA associated with the first lobe of vorticity is already supporting showers and drizzle primarily from south-central MO through south-central IL, focused near a quasi-stationary surface/low-level trough amidst the deep, cyclonic flow. Showers and drizzle will continue through the morning and likely expand in coverage as the leading edge of a second lobe of mid-level vorticity arrives and surface/low-level moisture convergence and confluence increases in the presence of the aforementioned surface/low-level trough in addition to another one progressing into the CWA from the IA-MO border. Thanks to considerable cloud cover, CAA ongoing through the day, and showers present, there will be little diurnal component to temps, capping them in the low to mid-40s F--10 to 20 F below average for late March.
A northwest flow pattern will set up behind the cold front that moved through the region last evening. This pattern will bring breezy westerly winds to much of the Northern Rockies, as well as keeping temperatures much cooler than what was experienced yesterday. A ridge of high pressure building over the Pacific Northwest today, will begin to slide eastward over the weekend. This will bring much warmer temperatures to the region, much like what we just experienced.
308 AM MDT Thu Mar 24 2022 A ridge of high pressure is building across the western US leaving our area under west to northwest flow. A trough tracking over the Canadian border will suppress the ridge while the associated jet looks to pass overhead. The winds will not be as windy as previous days, but the higher terrain could experience some gusts especially this afternoon. This westerly flow will keep the warm advection going which means the highs and lows gradually increase each day. Tomorrow the ridge will extend all the way into western Canada, so the flow will not change much and conditions will be similar to today only warmer.
Winds will weaken after sunset as high pressure begins to build into the region relaxing the pressure gradient.
346 AM MDT Thu Mar 24 2022 Today will be notably quieter than the last several days, with an upper-level ridge shown building overhead.
Temperatures will warm into the 70s area wide this afternoon and will range from the lower 70s across the Big Country, to the mid and upper 70s elsewhere. Skies will be mostly clear tonight, with light winds and overnight lows mainly in the lower 40s.
Central Kentucky and southern Indiana remain just on the eastern side of a large upper level trough lifting northeast over the Great Lakes and Mississippi River Valley. The upper trough axis finally moves directly overhead early Friday, but will continue to provide modest synoptic scale lift in the upper levels. Temperatures are roughly -5 to -10 C in the cloud layer, with fairly low RH in the warmer low levels.
This morning, a reinforcing cold front will quickly push through the area, leading to the development of a persistent northwest wind in its wake.
138 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2022 An upper level low pressure system will shift slowly east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region today into Friday. This will lead to a chance of showers at times, along with cooler temperatures. An upper level trough extending from the Great Lakes down into the Gulf of Mexico will shift slowly east today as an embedded short wave/low lifts northeast into the upper Ohio Valley. Any lingering pcpn should taper off heading into this evening as the upper level trough continues to shift east. A secondary upper level low will drop down across the western Great Lakes through the day on Friday.
1124 AM MDT Thu Mar 24 2022 A ridge of high pressure is building across the western US leaving our area under west to northwest flow. A trough tracking over the Canadian border will suppress the ridge while the associated jet looks to pass overhead. The winds will not be as windy as previous days, but the higher terrain could experience some gusts especially this afternoon. This westerly flow will keep the warm advection going which means the highs and lows gradually increase each day. Tomorrow the ridge will extend all the way into western Canada, so the flow will not change much and conditions will be similar to today only warmer.
/Tonight through Friday Night/ A reinforcing shot of cool and drier air will move into the region during the short-term in wake of today's cold front passage. Expect flow aloft to become northwesterly this evening, while high pressure builds across the region at the surface. Mid 30s are expected north of the interstate, with a few isolated freezing temps possible.
Strong CAA associated with this system will allow for much cooler temps tonight, although winds will allow a partially mixed BL at some locations. Western CONUS ridge will build and slowly shift east this weekend as a deep upper trough digs in the eastern Pac.
Insolation paired with a brief period of warm air advection will result in highs of up to the low 60s in southeastern Missouri and mid-50s in northeastern Missouri.
Meanwhile a couple of other waves in TX are digging southeast into the mean trough position further south. The MO wave will arrive in the lower TN valley late tonight, with increasing clouds expected. This wave and the upper trough shift east quickly on Friday with clouds exiting during the afternoon. Warm advection will redevelop ahead of a cold front dropping southeast through the lower MO valley and Ozarks associated with another strong upper low digging southeast through the Great Lakes.
Mostly sunny skies and milder temperatures are the grand result today with some moisture riding the top of the building ridge, resulting in some orographic cumulus developing over the ridges and peaks. As the ridge builds over the western states, moisture will continue to enter the Pacific Northwest coast and track inland across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies. The ridge axis will still remain to our west, keeping our CWA in a northwest flow, resulting in high clouds from time to time across the northern tier of the CWA through Friday night. This equates to near 70 in the west-central and southwest Colorado valleys with mid to upper 70s in the lower desert valleys and canyon country of southeast Utah.
Some mid-level clouds may impact metro and AHN Friday afternoon as an upper low swings through the SE US with wrap around moisture. /Issued 351 AM EDT Thu Mar 24 2022/ The short term models are in good agreement, lifting the upper level low to our west through the Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes area by tonight. The upper level trough will slowly move through the area through the short term period. A reinforcing cold front will move through the area overnight with cooler air across the area tomorrow. Mostly clear skies will prevail across much of the area today with low POPs and showers expected across east central Georgia as the cold front exits the area.
328 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022 Colder than normal temperatures and diurnally (mainly daytime) showery activity will continue into Friday, as a series of mid/upper level lows rotate southeast in a developing northwest flow across the Quad State region. As this upper low moves over and southeast of the area around the midnight hour, rain chances will dissipate across the area. After Friday evening, broad northwest flow will remain as a westwardly tilted ridge axis moves into the area.
A mid/upper level trough will begin swinging east through the CWA this afternoon. A weak disturbance rounding the base of the trough late today, will result in a bit more cloud cover across mainly Southeast Mississippi through the early evening hours. Otherwise, with breezy west southwest winds, look for slightly warmer conditions today under mostly sunny skies. Highs will range from the lower 60s to lower 70s. Otherwise, temperatures will top out cooler than normal again today and tonight. Global models depict a closed low system over the Great Lakes with an amplifying ridge over the western CONUS and a weak trough ejecting out of the east coast off into the Atlantic. This pattern will sustain a warmer and drier airmass over the southeast region, allowing for mostly clear and dry conditions through the first half of the work week.
Lows tonight should be rather cool, ranging from the lower 40s inland to the lower 50s along the immediate coast. Northwesterly flow aloft will then take hold in the wake of the departing trough. Temperatures will be a tad warmer on Friday given strong solar insolation with highs reaching the lower 70s.
1247 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022 Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows an elongated upper level trough/low over the Upper Great Lakes Region into the Southern Plains states. Several vertices are rotating around the upper level trough/low and one vertices is producing light rain or snow across parts of western Wisconsin/southeast Minnesota/northeast Iowa per latest KARX radar. Upper level trough/low slowly lifts/weakens into the Great Lakes Region today. As upper level trough/low lifts northeast of forecast area. weak upper level ridge builds into central Minnesota. Subsidence underneath upper level ridge will allow light precipitation to diminish this morning across the forecast area.
A dry cold front will pass through southwest Kansas tonight and early Friday, followed by an elevated northeast breeze Friday morning.
Stubborn cloud cover will continue across far northeastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as slow moving upper low drifts eastward. Some locations will dip below freezing and into the upper 20s.
A weak dry cold front is expected around sunrise Friday, which will an uptick in N/NE winds. With full late March insolation, temperatures will still warm into the 60s, but about 2-3 degrees cooler than Thursday.
Gusty northwest winds have spread down into the lower elevations this afternoon with the strongest gusts across northern and eastern sections of the area. These winds will relax some through the evening hours with loss of mixing, but will still remain somewhat elevated as a dry cold front moves through the plains late tonight. Otherwise, upper ridge building out west will bringing warming temperatures to western portions of the area with breezy northwest.
1129 AM MDT Thu Mar 24 2022 Today will be notably quieter than the last several days, with an upper-level ridge shown building overhead.
1110 AM EDT Thu Mar 24 2022 A cold front will slowly move through the area today with showers mainly in the central and eastern portions of the forecast area. Cold front will slowly move through the forecast area through this afternoon. Expect rain to end late this afternoon as 850 mb winds turn westerly and the cold front moves to the coast late this evening. With the upper trough still well west of the area cloud cover will be slow to diminish. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the mid to upper 60s and with cold air advection over the region tonight lows will be in the low 40s west with mid to upper 40s in the east.
Breezy southwest winds will occur ahead of the trough with some scattered to broken clouds, although any ceilings should stay at VFR levels. Winds will weaken after sunset as high pressure begins to build into the region relaxing the pressure gradient.
Temperatures today will be a couple degrees cooler than yesterday behind a weak upper trough and cold front that moved through last night.
309 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022 KEY MESSAGES: -A strong but quick moving trough will push across the area tonight through Friday. -Cooler and dry over the weekend.
Have been seeing a few showers on radar this morning as the upper level positive-tilt trough axis swings across, so in line with the latest HRRR and CONSShort have added a 20 percent pop to our western half through the afternoon. An upper trough will swing through overnight and will gradually lower ceilings to MVFR.
500mb waves not completely in phase as first and main trof swings through tonight and a secondary northern stream wave digs and reinforces the trof during the day Friday.
Upper level trof continues to push southeast across the Dakotas tonight with trailing cold front moving south of Montana and through Wyoming.
Temps will be similar to today, though slightly cooler in the west and with dry conditions.
The upper level low that brought rain to our region the last few days will finally progress eastward today leaving us in northwesterly flow and drier air.
224 PM MDT Thu Mar 24 2022 The cold front that passed through the CWA this morning is now over the Dakotas. An upper ridge over the West coast will nudge east Friday but abundant Pacific moisture will spill over it resulting in increased mainly high and mid level clouds that last through most of the weekend.
GOES-16 satellite trends place an upper level low centered over the Ohio River valley near Evansville, IN. /issued 232 AM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022/ An upper level low pressure system remains parked over the middle part of the United States this morning. Expect highs in the lower 50s to mid 60s.
With high pressure redeveloping, expect winds to diminish tonight as conditions stabilize. Temperatures will begin another upward climb over the next several days as high pressure remains the dominant weather driver through this weekend.
A mix of sun and clouds is expected through this evening as upper closed low lifts northeastward from the southern Ohio River Valley. A weak front is expected to pass overnight as this low exits to the northeast, starting the trend toward cooler temperature. Meager column moisture and poor positioning with respect to upper support should maintain generally dry weather, though an isolated shower may develop over the higher terrain and eastern OH.
(This afternoon through Friday night) The large upper lvl trough and assocd shrtwv which brought gusty winds and virga to the area yesterday will continue to progress into the eastern U. This means warmer and calmer weather is on the way for the remainder of the week! This afternoon we will see highs peak in the mid 70s w/a few 80s along the Rio Grande under full sunshine and increasing hghts aloft. After a chilly start on Friday morning, a strengthening upper lvl ridge will begin to migrate from the Desert Southwest towards West TX and southeast NM. Increasing thicknesses aloft and a prominent thermal ridge will contribute to highs reaching well above normal Friday afternoon.
Cooler by Friday with chances of showers into the weekend. A closed upper level circulation at H500 over southern Indiana at this hour will transit central Ohio before ejecting into the lower Great Lakes overnight. Some of these showers could produce some small hail with freezing around 4kft. Broad cyclonic flow remains over the region during the day Friday in the wake of this departing upper level low. Warmer air displaces the former cold pool aloft with an inversion noted on forecast soundings around H750 through much of the daylight hours Friday.
233 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2022 Warm, dry, and breezy conditions will give way to cooler weather Friday as a dry cold front passes by the region. Additional disturbances will pass over the area this weekend, reinforcing the unseasonably cool air and bringing a chance of light snow showers to the higher ridges of the North Carolina mountains.
335 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022 Primary impacts in the short term periods will be related to strong winds behind a cold front this evening into Friday. Winds in northwest ND are already gusting to 40kt behind the cold front and as this front arrives in the Devils Lake Basin after 23Z (based on latest short range guidance) gusts around 45 mph would be expected. Confidence is lowered due to temperatures hovering near or above freezing.
328 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022 Upper level ridging will build across the Rockies through Friday. Downstream of this ridge across our area expect dry northwest flow aloft. As this occurs a cold front will dive southeast through the area late tonight. The dry air, light winds and clear skies will allow temperatures to fall into the lower 20s across portions of central into north central Nebraska.
1019 AM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022 (Issued 1019 AM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022) A band of rain and snow is slowly sinking south this morning as low pressure progresses across Lower Michigan. Boxell (Issued 410 AM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022) Today through Friday: The southwest to northeast oriented occlusion will slowly move newd today from srn Lake MI into Ontario, but troughing will remain in its wake. There may be some snow mixing with the rain at times but no snow accum expected as temps will remain above freezing.
Increasing clouds this morning, with a mostly cloudy/partly sunny mix in the weather today with weak ridging building into the area. Drier weather through Friday with weak ridging building into the area.
GOES-16 Satellite trends place an upper level low over the Ohio Valley. The aforementioned upper level low will continue to move east over the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will warm into the 60s on Friday with high pressure in place across the area.
ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 43 58 42 57 35 / 0 0 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 41 56 40 53 34 / 0 20 30 20 0 Oak Ridge, TN 42 54 39 53 33 / 0 10 30 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 40 53 37 47 31 / 0 30 70 50 20.
332 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2022 Through the short-term, a deep diving upper trough, sitting over the Midwest, continues to bring low precipitation chances to the CWA as a couple of vorticity maxes pass through/near the CWA. Tonight, used GFS 1 hour guidance as a starting point (it was the only model with any handle on today's precipitation), but with limited forcing in the low levels, limited precipitation chances to sprinkles in the forecast.
247 PM MDT Thu Mar 24 2022 The short term forecast is dominated by the building H5 ridge across the western half of the US. Strong ridging will be in place for the weekend, making for warm and dry conditions across the area.
Visible satellite imagery indicates high clouds streaming over the region associated with a trough to our northwest. Starting tomorrow, temperatures trend lower into the weekend thanks to an increase in onshore flow ushering in cooler temperatures ahead of an approaching trough off the West Coast.
A broad mid/upper level trough will continue to swing east through the CWA during the short term period. However, a better chance of increasing cloud cover is expected across South Mississippi, as a weak disturbance rounding the base of the trough moves across that area late this afternoon into early this evening.
Expect temperatures to remain a bit below normal though as we remain on the cooler side of the flow pattern.
Forecast soundings are indicating too much dry air in the lower levels to support any measurable rainfall, but a few sprinkles wouldn't be out of the question in a few spots. A large eastern CONUS trough will continue digging southward into the region during the day on Friday, sending cool and dry air southward. More clouds are expected across the northern half of Alabama through Friday afternoon closer to the upper level disturbance/trough axis as it ejects east of the area by late Friday. Cooler temps in the 60s can be expected Friday afternoon with the increase in clouds and northwesterly flow at the surface.
Issued by National Weather Service St Louis MO 301 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022 An upper low over north central Missouri will continue to weaken and slowly slide southeast through eastern Missouri tonight. With lingering cloud cover tonight, temperatures will only fall into the low to mid 30s. Latest deterministic models indicate that another deepening upper level low will slide southeast from the Northern Plains into northern Illinois on Friday.
Cooler weather will continue with increasing cloud coverage tomorrow. Discussion: Currently mostly sunny skies across most of the area as the low continues to move off to the northeast. Conditions are breezy today across much of the eastern TN valley as good mixing is occurring and transporting the low level winds to the surface. Cooler weather will remaining over the area as we stay under the slow moving trough making it's way across the eastern US.