Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure over the Western Atlantic waters will be weakening while shifting southward a little bit tonight into Wednesday. This will allow for a weak cold front to move southward from the north into the Southeastern United States before stalling out. The short range models are also showing a low level trough east of the Bahamas to move westward into tonight and move through South Florida on Wednesday. This low level trough will help to increase the low level moisture over the region late tonight into Wednesday leading to late night early morning isolated showers over the east coast metro areas shifting the west coast metro areas in the afternoon hours.
Current conditions across the region are highlighted by a band of precipitation moving east of the I75 corridor into the high terrain associated with a departing jetmax and deep lift. As for the remainder of the day, the cold front will approach from the west fostering enhanced convergence along/ahead of the front. Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 54 69 54 71 / 80 40 30 50 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 52 66 51 70 / 70 40 20 30 70 Oak Ridge, TN 62 50 66 50 70 / 80 50 20 30 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 48 64 45 68 / 80 50 30 10 50 TN.
441 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020 A cold front was bisecting the JKl forecast area this afternoon, with showers occurring along and ahead of the front. On Wednesday night another cold front will begin heading east across the middle of the CONUS, supported by a mid/upper level gyre and associated surface system moving east across southern Canada.
Issued by National Weather Service Louisville KY 251 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2020 Visible satellite imagery shows erosion in the low cloud deck in our far west, however, it has a harder time working its way eastward. 12Z sounding data revealed the low cloud deck at about 2500 feet of depth at KSGF, ranging to about 4500 feet at KILX and upward to 10K feet at KOHX.
Otherwise, with the latest disturbance advancing east of the region and a modest ridge incoming, looking for a couple of dry days ahead.
350 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020 High pressure will persist offshore into late week.
Current conditions across the region are highlighted by a band of precipitation moving east of the I75 corridor into the high terrain associated with a departing jetmax and deep lift. As for the remainder of the day, the cold front will approach from the west fostering enhanced convergence along/ahead of the front. A mixture of VFR/MVFR and possibly IFR during the vast majority of the this taf cycle as llv moisture remains prevalent ahead of an approaching cold front. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 69 54 71 56 / 30 10 50 70 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 66 51 70 57 / 50 20 30 70 80 Oak Ridge, TN 50 66 50 70 55 / 50 20 30 70 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 64 45 68 55 / 60 20 10 50 80 TN.
346 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020 A cold front will pass through the area late this afternoon and this evening bringing showers. Drier air with high pressure will build in tonight and bring sunshine for Wednesday.
The synoptic pattern this afternoon is highlighted by quasizonal H5 flow atop weak low pressure extending along the east coast, while a cold front advances eastward through the OH/TN valleys. Profiles do favor this weak surface based instability, however warmer temperatures aloft should keep convection shallow with no hazards to highlight. Highs on Wednesday are forecast to top out in the 50s to lower 60s across the high terrain, mid 60s to near 70 in the valley, all amidst dry weather and partly/mostly cloudy skies.
1123 AM MDT Tue Mar 10 2020 Water vapor shows distinct short wave moving through northwest SD early this morning with main trof axis over the northern Rockies. At the surface, ridge has shifted into the eastern Dakotas with broad low over eastern WY. Snow/rain showers may redevelop this afternoon across much of western SD given main upper trof moving through and some steepening lapse rates. Short wave ridge and surface trof will cross the northern plains on Wednesday resulting in dry and mild conditions with highs in the upper 50s and 60s. Grassland fire danger will reach the high to very high categories.
A cold front moves through Wednesday overnight shifting winds out of the southwest to more westerly and northwesterly while remaining elevated.
A weak upper-level trough will continue to push across the Tennessee Valley this morning, bringing a couple bands of light to moderate rain showers through the region. Temperatures will only fall into the lower 50s overnight due to lower cloud cover remaining.
Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a trough from North Dakota into Wyoming and a large cutoff low spinning well off the coast of California. That system will work its way across Oklahoma tonight while the upper trough noted on water vapor works toward the western Great Lakes region.
This afternoon: Main surface cold front remains well off to the west of the region, with the boundary across central TN and northeastern MS early this afternoon. The highest activity should be in the southern and eastern FA where atmospheric moisture will be highest.
There is a low chance of some freezing drizzle toward the end of the event past 06z as column loses ice introduction over the very far north. However with surface temperatures teetering just above freezing, left out mention attm. There is the threat of some very light rain this evening but that should only add to the low level moisture.
259 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2020 (Tonight and Wednesday) A warm afternoon across the area once the low clouds have eroded, with readings in the mid and upper 70s.
1145 AM MDT Tue Mar 10 2020 Split flow was observed across the western CONUS this morning with a deep closed low off the coast of California and a mostly zonal polar branch across the northern 3rd of the US. High pressure will develop late this evening from the west signaling the return of stronger westerly winds.
A low pressure system off the California coast will move inland late in the week, impacting mainly southern Utah and points south. A weak disturbance is currently ejecting out ahead of the low and moving through northern Arizona and far southern Utah. The airmass will trend drier tonight before the next disturbance ejects out of the low.
This added insolation and forcing from an approaching cold front has sparked rain and isolated thunderstorms east of I-65. Today's cold front will only reduce temperatures tomorrow by a few degrees, with highs still several degrees above normal.
The ridge aloft will peak in intensity this weekend with EPS mean 500 mb height values surging to 5920m. This will likely stomp out the already low 10 PoPs for much of the weekend, but otherwise temperatures look to peak each day in the lower to mid 80s with lows falling each night to 70 to 75F. From synopsis: High pressure currently centered near Bermuda will slowly weaken as it drops southward into the Florida Peninsula over the next few days.
411 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge off the sern U.
Cold front will drop S into the area Wednesday afternoon due to jet carving out a trough over the area.
233 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020 Rain will dissipate tonight with the passage of a cold front. A surface cold front will continue its progression east through the region, with showers along and ahead of the boundary.
High temperatures will be in the 40s north of Interstate 90 and in the lower and mid-50s elsewhere.
138 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020 High pressure will persist offshore into mid week. A cold front is expected to stall over or just north of the region this weekend. Rest of Today: The forecast area will be situated between high pressure over the central Atlantic and a slow moving cold front back across the Tennessee Valley and lower Mississippi Valley. Expect another mild afternoon with highs reaching the low to mid 70s. A warm and moist airmass will remain in place during the period as high pressure lingers offshore.
The extra cloud cover will cap off high temps in the lower 70s tomorrow but winds will be lighter than today, so overall it may feel more pleasant.
As previously advertised, deep column moisture and instability rounding the mid-level ridge across Deep South Texas have resulted in persistent light rain showers this morning into this afternoon. Patchy fog across the lower Texas coast may reach a bit further inland tonight with abundant low level moisture and diminishing winds. Less cloud cover on Wednesday should yield much warmer temperatures, especially out west, with near 90 degrees on tap across portions of the upper valley and the lower valley warming into the 80s.
222 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020 A cold front will pass through the area late this afternoon and this evening bringing showers. Drier air with high pressure will build in tonight and bring sunshine for Wednesday.
226 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020 An approaching cold front will bring some showers through early evening, before skies clear late. Weak high pressure will build into the Commonwealth for Wednesday.
Ridge axis settles across the area tonight and remains in place through tomorrow, with low level onshore flow weakening. Lows tonight will fall into the 50s to low 60s, and warming trend will continue Wednesday with highs in the low 80s.
High pressure will build in at the sfc from the northwest tonight as northwest flow aloft briefly takes hold.
Visible satellite imagery shows erosion in the low cloud deck in our far west, however, it has a harder time working its way eastward. 12Z sounding data revealed the low cloud deck at about 2500 feet of depth at KSGF, ranging to about 4500 feet at KILX and upward to 10K feet at KOHX.
Overnight lows will be in the lower to middle 30s.
The steadily warming incoming airmass has continued the gradual upward trend in temperatures, which are now in the lower to mid 70s. Dew points have also continued to climb, now in the lower to mid 60s. Short Term Update - Easterly breezes will continue to trend downwards as the ridge to our north continues to weaken. A ridge across the Florida Peninsula will continue to slacken overnight.
Overnight lows will be a couple degrees either side of 60 degrees across the area except a few degrees warmer toward Martin and St.
This Eve/Tonight: A weak lee cyclone situated in far southeast Colorado this afternoon will track ESE toward Woodward OK (this evening) and Tulsa, OK (overnight). Wed-Wed night: With relatively little change in the synoptic pattern, expect conditions similar (albeit a few degrees warmer) than today -- with precipitation chances generally confined north and south of the Tri-State area, primarily during the evening.
/issued 313 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2020/ A cold front is currently approaching Tupelo, MS and just moved through Oxford. Dew points across North Mississippi and East central Arkansas are expected to climb into the Low to mid 60s with high temperatures in the mid 70s.
806 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020 Shower activity is gradually exiting off to the southeast, as the cold front continues to makes its push towards the Appalachians. Will maintain some slight chance PoPs into the night for now, as some of the higher resolution model guidance continues to support this idea. A cold front was bisecting the JKl forecast area this afternoon, with showers occurring along and ahead of the front. On Wednesday night another cold front will begin heading east across the middle of the CONUS, supported by a mid/upper level gyre and associated surface system moving east across southern Canada.
1037 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020 Weak high pressure will build into the Commonwealth, but a few late day showers are possible on Wednesday.
Wednesday night, a cold front descends south from the Canadian Rockies.
900 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020 High pressure will persist offshore into late week.
a warm front is expected to slowly lift northeast across Southeast Oklahoma with warming temps late tonight.
705 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020 Clear sky continues and light wind develops during the evening as a narrow ridge of high pressure slides across Lower Michigan. The next low pressure system then brings a light mix of rain and snow Wednesday morning, mainly in the MBS to FNT area. Rapid clearing will occur late today from north to south as subsidence in the wake of cold frontal boundary settles through the area.
639 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020 A cold front will clear the area shortly and weak high pressure will build into the Commonwealth for Wednesday.
Cooler weather with rain and snow chances during the weekend. A deep upper level low spinning off of the southern coast of CA will bring a chance for light showers to southern parts of the area this evening into tomorrow. There is quite a bit of dry air at the low levels and this precip will have a tough time making it to the ground but some sprinkles or a brief light shower will be possible with them. The closed off upper level low will slowly push over the southern San Joaquin Valley tomorrow and this will keep shower chances in the forecast for southern parts of the area with the best chances over the Sierra south of highway 50. Any precip we see with this upper level low will be light and very low impact.
945 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020 A cold front will push through the area tonight. High pressure will briefly pass to the north Wednesday, with another weak wave of low pressure passing to the south late Wednesday.
615 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020 High pressure will persist offshore into late week.
/issued 259 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2020/ (Tonight and Wednesday) A warm afternoon across the area once the low clouds have eroded, with readings in the mid and upper 70s.
1027 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020 Weak high pressure will build into the Commonwealth, but a few late day showers are possible on Wednesday.
805 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020 A cold front will clear the area shortly and weak high pressure will build into the Commonwealth for Wednesday.
943 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020 A cold front will push through the area tonight. High pressure will briefly pass to the north Wednesday, with another weak wave of low pressure passing to the south late Wednesday.
702 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020 A cold front will exit the area evening, taking showers away with it.
A surface trof of low pressure is expected to slide eastward across the area late tonight and Wednesday morning, with winds becoming northwest to north in its wake. The extra cloud cover will cap off high temps in the lower 70s tomorrow but winds will be lighter than today, so overall it may feel more pleasant.
The highest activity should be in the southern and eastern FA where atmospheric moisture will be highest.
The eve update featured the adjustment of PoPs as per the latest radar returns and cold front progress.
242 PM PDT Tue Mar 10 2020 A low pressure system will track south of Nevada through the end of this week while spreading some light precipitation as far north as northern Nye and southern White Pine counties on Wednesday.
Evening surface analysis places a cold front across middle Tennessee with an area of low pressure well to the northeast across southern Quebec. For the rest of tonight expect an overall decrease in coverage of rain showers as the cold front continues to march eastward into the forecast area. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 70 55 70 59 / 40 10 60 80 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 67 52 68 58 / 60 20 50 80 80 Oak Ridge, TN 50 66 51 67 56 / 40 20 50 80 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 63 46 65 55 / 50 20 10 80 80.
High pressure centered over the southeastern USA and eastern Gulf will bring well above normal temperatures and primarily dry conditions through the majority of the week.
Satellite shows copious mid and upper cloud cover moving from west to east through a mid level ridge building over the area. As previously advertised, deep column moisture and instability rounding the mid-level ridge across Deep South Texas have resulted in persistent light rain showers this morning into this afternoon. Patchy fog across the lower Texas coast may reach a bit further inland tonight with abundant low level moisture and diminishing winds. Less cloud cover on Wednesday should yield much warmer temperatures, especially out west, with near 90 degrees on tap across portions of the upper valley and the lower valley warming into the 80s.
is generally zonal with a weak ridge forming across Texas and the next large upper low sitting off of the southwest coast of California.
A cold front will begin swinging through from northwest to southeast as early as mid afternoon. Otherwise, scattered rain showers should develop along the cold front as it moves through.
Any flakes south of I-69 this morning will be partially melted and quickly liquefy on contact while further north, some trace accumulations (perhaps a few tenths) may arise on grassy/elevated surfaces where sub-freezing surface temps have cropped up overnight. Veering winds to the SSW will guide low-level WAA late this morning, further modifying the lowest few thousand feet.
Temperatures look to remain above freezing throughout the night.
For tonight, an area of convection will ride southeast across the mid-Mississippi valley into Alabama along a warm frontal boundary.
321 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2020 Weak upper/mid level ridging is gradually building over the western Gulf of Mexico, and is forecast to gradually shift east towards Florida through the rest of the week and into the weekend. At the surface, Atlantic high pressure is ridging across northern Florida, but is forecast to gradually shift south across central Florida through the upcoming weekend as a weak cold front washes out to the north of the forecast area. In response to the building high pressure at the surface and aloft, an already warm and stable airmass will only become more warm and stable.
1243 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2020 High pressure will persist offshore into late week.
Shower activity is gradually exiting off to the southeast, as the cold front continues to makes its push towards the Appalachians. Will maintain some slight chance PoPs into the night for now, as some of the higher resolution model guidance continues to support this idea. A cold front was bisecting the JKl forecast area this afternoon, with showers occurring along and ahead of the front. On Wednesday night another cold front will begin heading east across the middle of the CONUS, supported by a mid/upper level gyre and associated surface system moving east across southern Canada.
as a series of H5 vort maxima kick out of the Central Rockies into the high plains in conjunction with a cold front pushing into northern Kansas. Despite the weak frontal boundary moving through western/central Kansas early this morning, highs are still expected to reach up into the upper 60s(F) to the lower 70s(F) this afternoon. Temperatures will remain above normal tonight as lee side troughing quickly redevelops in eastern Colorado, returning a south-southwesterly flow to western Kansas by this evening.
127 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2020 Areas of freezing fog are expected during the early morning hours.
333 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2020 Areas of freezing fog are expected during the early morning hours.
A westward extension of an area of high pressure centered off in the Atlantic will continue to dominate the weather pattern across the region for today. At the same time, a weak cold front will move into the southeastern portion of the country and stall out. High pressure will keep many areas dry again for tonight, however, a slight chance of showers cannot be ruled out mainly over the Atlantic waters with the easterly flow in place.
Latest RAP/HRRR model soundings suggest this fog/drizzle could linger for for a few more hours west of the Mississippi River and possibly until mid-morning east of the river before the low levels dry out more.
300 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020 Upper level flow will flatten more westerly behind passage of a weak upper ridge early this morning and a passing impulse through the Mississippi Valley. But main sensible weather change will involve a weak cold front sweeping southward this morning from the northern Texas Panhandle expected to pass through much of the area by midday with winds swinging around to the north-northeast mostly 10 mph or less. But temperatures today are expected to be 4 to 6 degrees cooler than Tuesday for most locations.
115 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2020 High pressure will persist offshore into late week.
A low pressure system off the southern California coast will move inland late in the week.
318 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020 A quick look at the satellite shows some low level stratus sneaking north from the Lower Trans-Pecos into the southern and central Permian Basin. High temps for today and Thur will settle into the mid-upper 70s to low 80s for the Pecos River valley and Permian Basin thanks to weak downsloping and thermal ridge axis centered over the aforementioned regions.
The remainder of the daytime hours appears benign with modest southwest winds taking hold as a more potent upper trough in southern Canada approaches the northern Plains and surface cyclogenesis returns to eastern Colorado.
Early morning analysis indicates the low level ridge axis in place from north of the Cape to the Nature Coast. Light, variable winds this morning will become east to southeast 5-10mph south of the ridge axis, while remaining light underneath the ridge. By the afternoon, temperatures will warm into the low 80s inland and upper 70s along the coast. Underneath the ridge axis, light winds will allow a sea breeze to develop along the Volusia and northern Brevard coast, and along the Nature Coast. Dry again tonight with temps moderating in the low to mid 60s, except upper 50s possible in some rural interior spots.
233 AM MDT Wed Mar 11 2020 Water vapor shows short wave ridge crossing the northern Rockies into the northern plains, with dense mid/upper level cloud cover associated with chinook arch extending through our northern zones. Upper level cut-off low is situated just offshore the CA coast. At the surface, lee trof is advancing into eastern MT/eastern WY. Upper ridge passing overhead along with surface trof pushing through the Dakotas will result in much warmer and drier conditions today. Cold front will then sweep through the area tonight, with winds shifting to the northwest and becoming a bit gusty.
950 PM PDT Tue Mar 10 2020 A deep trough off the coast will keep chances for light showers going through Wednesday morning.
For tomorrow, attention turns to the strong cold front that will make its way southward during the day and into tomorrow night.
There is currently no rain in the forecast for Wednesday, and expect the lower morning visibilities/ceilings to become VFR by late in the morning or early in the afternoon.
The persistent western Atlantic ridge axis extending across the Florida Peninsula will move little for the balance of this week. Given the close proximity of the ridge axis and no distinct mid and upper level disturbances, only dime pops will be retained through the period. Temperatures will continue to moderate with daytime highs in the lower to mid 80s and overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s by the end of this week. A deep and expansive anticyclone will move over the Sunshine State and the adjacent Atlantic and Gulf waters, will result in scant moisture and above normal temperatures through the period.
Evening surface analysis places a cold front across middle Tennessee with an area of low pressure well to the northeast across southern Quebec. For the rest of tonight expect an overall decrease in coverage of rain showers as the cold front continues to march eastward into the forecast area. Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 55 70 59 65 / 20 50 80 80 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 52 68 58 63 / 20 30 80 80 60 Oak Ridge, TN 66 51 67 56 63 / 10 30 80 80 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 46 65 55 62 / 20 10 80 80 70.
/Issued 412 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020/ An upper level ridge has begun to build across South Texas and will persist for the next couple of days. That will inhibit any chance of precipitation despite any available moisture and will bring warmer temperatures across the area. The low temperatures for the next couple of nights will be mild and humid and will run about 10 degrees above normal for this time of the year.