Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1253 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022 (Rest of Today) As high pressure continues to build southward towards the NW Gulf of Mexico, winds shift from more northerly to northwesterly today-- gusting up to 10 mph occasionally. As the trough shifts slowly eastward along the East Coast, cold air is still being advected southward through the TN Valley, bringing another chilly day with highs likely staying just below 60 degrees. While it is a *slight* warm up compared to yesterday's high temperatures in the low 50s, it is still below- normal as far as our climatological high temperatures go since our normal high temperatures for this time of year range from the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Forecast highs are still on track to reach the lower to mid 60s for most areas; although, a few locations over the western Florida Panhandle and up into south- central Alabama may creep into the upper 60s. The deep upper trough over the eastern CONUS will gradually shift east and weaken through late week. Thursday afternoon highs will then be a bit warmer than today, with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 60s area-wide.
Otherwise, temperatures are expected to drop below freezing for the third morning in a row tonight with lows reaching the upper 20s to low 30s. Exception will be parts of urban Nashville which will stay a couple of degrees above freezing. High clouds will also be increasing overnight and surface winds may stay up somewhat, especially in our northwest counties, which should help keep it a bit closer to the freezing mark. In coordination with surrounding offices, went ahead with one final freeze warning for tonight - which will hopefully be our last one for the season! Tomorrow will be the start of our warming trend as the upper level low over the Great Lakes that has brought our cold weather shifts off to the northeast.
131 PM MDT Wed Oct 19 2022 Deep trough persists over the eastern CONUS, with upper ridging over the west. Warm front has made it through the CWA.
Look for lows down into the mid/upper 30s(F) to possibly the lower 40s(F). Downsloping will become more westerly Thursday as lee side troughing redevelops in eastern Colorado, pushing H85 temperatures up into the upper teens(C) in central Kansas to a little above 20C in extreme southwest Kansas.
Much warmer late week into the weekend. Still looking at record lows again this morning across the area with lows generally in the low to mid 20s. In the upper atmosphere, we have a closed upper low over the Great Lakes region, which is very slowly moving off to the northeast. To the west side of the low, northerly winds aloft have brought in the cold and dry air mass to the region. Some of the valleys there may dip into the low to mid 20s. Significant changes in the pattern are expected in the longer term forecast as the closed low lifts northeast and well into Canada on Thursday and Thursday night.
(This evening through Thursday night) A large upper level trough continues to overtake much of the eastern CONUS with a ridge over the western CONUS. The large area of cold air that has impacted the combined Panhandles over the last couple of days, bringing below freezing morning lows to the northeastern FA, is continuing to move off to the east. Downsloping winds from the west today are also helping with the warmer temperatures. Overnight lows are expected to be much warmer with widespread 40s across the FA. Winds may be somewhat light this evening then pick back up a bit to help keep warmer temperatures mixed.
(This afternoon through Thursday night) A large upper level trough is dominating the eastern half of the country with West Texas and Southeast New Mexico on the western edge of the upper trough. Upper ridging develops over the area on Thursday. The warming trend continues on Thursday with highs mostly in the 70s and 80s except in the higher elevations of the mountains.
1004 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022 (Issued 1004 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022) Still looking at a windy day, but not quite as gusty as the past few days as the closed off low over the eastern Great Lakes lifts northward across eastern Ontario and the ridge over the plains starts to recede southward.
1048 AM MDT Wed Oct 19 2022 Current surface analysis shows a warm front from far eastern MT to the Black Hills and the NE panhandle. Upper level analysis shows persistent high pressure and ridging across the western US, with low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes region and a large scale trough across the eastern US. Temps early this morning range from some 20s toward central SD to the 40s and lower 50s across a good portion of northeast WY and the Black Hills, west of the warm front. A relatively quiet weather pattern continues through late week and into the first half of the weekend as ridge remains strong to the west of the area over the next couple of days.
248 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022 (Issued 248 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022) Tonight and Thursday: Improving and less windy conditions are expected going into Thursday as a broad trough of low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes starts to propagate northward across Canada and a warmer air mass gets advected into the western Great Lakes. Currently, the low level stratocu/cu deck has quickly eroded as dry low level air moves into place. Winds will go light on Thursday as weak ridging moves in place while some slightly warmer air moves in from the west.
Tonight: Not much of consequence overnight although a lack of completely calm winds, low level WAA and perhaps periods of upper level clouds will keep temperatures warmer than this morning values. Thursday: Low level thermal push will allow for warmer conditions on Thursday.
Surface ridging continues to slide southeast allowing southerly low- level flow to return to portions of central and south-central KS.
Generally speaking, winds will gradually shift westerly and eventually southwesterly over the next 48 hours along the backside of the southeastward-drifting high pressure system. Accordingly, tomorrow will mark the start of a warming trend with highs rebounding into the low to mid 50s.
We are expecting the coldest temps of the season so far tonight with everyone across north and central GA seeing lows tonight at or below the freezing mark.
305 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022 Very quiet weather to end the week as high pressure at the surface continues to move east of the region, and no other major systems set up over the Upper Midwest.
1220 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022 (The rest of today ) After a record cold start this morning across the forecast area, temps have climbed above freezing.
In general, lows will not be nearly as cold as last night but still expect 30s area-wide with some pockets of freezing temperatures across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas in addition to the normal cold spots which may see another hard freeze. ridge/eastern U. trough, pattern over the past week will begin to transition as the pattern becomes more progressive and a trough begins to dive into the Pacific Northwest and into the Great Basin over the weekend.
No update to the forecast this morning as the area remains under high pressure aloft.
This boundary will cause a wind shift but with dry airmass over the region and downslope conditions expected behind the front, warmer temperatures are actually expected Thursday with no precipitation.
1211 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022 Latest water vapor imagery is showing a highly amplified pattern with the upper low over the Great Lakes showing little movement since yesterday. Latest HREF run is showing the upper low beginning to slowly shift east by tomorrow. With with dry low air through a deep layer of the atmosphere and subsidence on the backside of the upper low, will keep the forecast dry through tomorrow.
1240 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022 The strong upper level low that brought frigid weather to our region will continue to progress east of the Great Lakes leaving northwesterly flow aloft behind it.
(This evening through Thursday Night) It's been an all around gorgeous day across SE TX as high pressure remains overhead, with light north winds and observed afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 60s thus far. This should prove for efficient radiative cooling, although overnight lows should be a few degrees higher given the loss of CAA behind the departed cold front. Nonetheless, most locations should again see low temperatures bottoming out in the upper 30s/40s, while coastal locations will see lows in the low to mid 50s. Daytime highs will reach the lower/mid 80s at most locations, while overnight lows will sit mainly in the 50s area-wide.
(through Tonight) The region will be between high pressure building from the west northwest, and a developing inverted trough to the southeast this period. Skies will be clear, except for north central FL counties where clouds will move in ahead of the trough. An inland frost is expected, due to the combination of temperatures falling into the lower to mid 30s and light winds. A few locations well inland could touch freezing around dawn Thursday morning.
255 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022 18Z surface data has high pressure from the Gulf Coast into the upper Midwest. Quiet and dry conditions will be seen tonight and Thursday as high pressure quickly moves through the Midwest.
253 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2022 An upper level low will meander across the Great Lakes and southern Canada through Thursday as high pressure builds across the southern US.
with afternoon highs climbing into the lower to middle 60s. This will help push a warmer airmass into the region and boost afternoon highs into the 60s. as deep troughing over the central/eastern CONUS is replaced by zonal flow.
(This evening through Thursday) More quiet weather is expected over the next 36 hours as high pressure is in control across east and central Texas. Tomorrow, a weak cold front will push through west central Texas, but no rain is expected. A warmer airmass moving in from the west will help afternoon high temperatures reach the low 80s for most areas.
Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is positioned near and along the Colorado border.
(This evening through Thursday) Subsidence continues to build over the CWA this afternoon as the mid/upper-level ridge over the Great Basin translates eastward. Near-neutral geopotential height tendencies are expected over the next 24 hours, and with increasing confluence along the upstream flank of a strengthening high-level jet streak over southeastern Texas, flow throughout the 700-300 mb layer should back to the northwest compared to the north today as the mid/upper-level ridges begins to de-amplify. This will cause the erosion of the stout subsidence inversion that is in place this afternoon over the CWA, with boundary-layer heights ascending to near 3-km AGL across areas west of the edge of the Caprock Escarpment while remaining nearly 1-km lower in the Rolling Plains, yielding high temperatures that will be 3-5 deg F warmer than today.
(Tonight through Thursday night) Clear skies over south Texas and northwesterly flow aloft will lead to another cooler than normal night with lows in the upper 40s to 50s. Quiet weather is on tap for Thursday as we remain on the lee side of an exiting trough with high pressure at the surface. Lows will be slightly warmer on Thursday night with inland areas dipping into the 50s while areas along the coast drop into the 60s.
Changes from the very warm high pressure ridge will begin to take place on Thursday, and unlike the recent weather system, that mostly remained east and did not impact most of the region, 100 percent of model guidance show a trough overtaking the entire region during this weekend. As the trough approaches, the high pressure ridge will flatten on Thursday, and the first noticeable change will be an increase in winds, of generally 20-30 mph.
An upper-level trough persists across the eastern CONUS per recent water vapor imagery, with northerly to northwesterly flow in place over the Middle Mississippi Valley. This combined with the cloud cover will keep overnight lows 5-10 degrees warmer tonight compared to last night, though many locations will still see values approach or drop just below freezing. The eastern trough will mostly hold in place tomorrow, with upper- and mid-level flow remaining northerly to northwesterly. However, surface flow will remain out of the southwest, advecting warmer air into the CWA and bumping temperatures up to around climatological normals for afternoon highs.
Look for lows down into the mid/upper 30s(F) to possibly the lower 40s(F). Downsloping will become more westerly Thursday as lee side troughing redevelops in eastern Colorado, pushing H85 temperatures up into the upper teens(C) in central Kansas to a little above 20C in extreme southwest Kansas. Also by the start of the weekend, the next more significant upper level trough will exit the eastern Pacific and be moving across the Pacific Northwest. Despite these differences this morning, all models agree that as this upper level system approaches a trough of low pressure will develop along the lee of the Rockies and this will result in increasing winds across southwest Kansas.
By days 6 or 7, the next mid-upper trough complex will dig southeast through the Plains and Mississippi River Valley, which potentially will set the stage for another frontal passage in the far extended. For the sensible weather elements, given the lower than expected current temperatures across the Keys, we highlight overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s, which is the coolest temperatures we have seen since late April.
330 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2022 Discussion/Marine -- Improving Weather Through Week's End -- Persistent deep upper trough responsible for our recent bout of chilly, windy fall weather will finally lift out of the region on Thursday.
645 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022 (Tonight through Thursday night) Clear skies over south Texas and northwesterly flow aloft will lead to another cooler than normal night with lows in the upper 40s to 50s. Quiet weather is on tap for Thursday as we remain on the lee side of an exiting trough with high pressure at the surface. Lows will be slightly warmer on Thursday night with inland areas dipping into the 50s while areas along the coast drop into the 60s.
**** See Fire Weather Discussion below **** Warmer than normal temperatures and drier than normal humidity today and tomorrow, will be followed by a cold front, which will signal the start of a significant air mass change across the whole region, which will spread measurable precipitation through our area this weekend.
A cold front caused cool, wet, and dreary weather conditions for most of the afternoon and early this evening. Temperatures struggled to reach the lower 70s this afternoon due to the rain and clouds over the Keys. The wind and cloud cover will keep the overnight temperatures from falling to the lower 60s but expect temperatures to drop to the mid to upper 60s, with dew points ranging from the low to mid 50s. Tomorrow, mostly to partly cloudy skies will stick around during the morning and most of the afternoon, then drier air on the backside of the upper- level trough will advect into the area and erode the cloudy deck.
623 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022 Very quiet weather to end the week as high pressure at the surface continues to move east of the region, and no other major systems set up over the Upper Midwest.
628 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022 (This afternoon through Thursday night) A large upper level trough is dominating the eastern half of the country with West Texas and Southeast New Mexico on the western edge of the upper trough. Upper ridging develops over the area on Thursday. The warming trend continues on Thursday with highs mostly in the 70s and 80s except in the higher elevations of the mountains.
1041 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2022 A slow moving low pressure system will continue to bring unseasonably chilly conditions through Thursday with lake effect rain showers. There will even be some minor snow accumulations across the higher terrain.
A light return flow is already at Mount Pleasant and Tyler with warmer mid to upper 40s. The center of high pressure is 1024mb at Vicksburg with calm wind all along the LA I-20 corridor. Dew points are some 5 to 10 degrees cooler and will allow for a drop to near saturation, or in some cases through the dew point.
614 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022 (This evening through Thursday) More quiet weather is expected over the next 36 hours as high pressure is in control across east and central Texas. Tomorrow, a weak cold front will push through west central Texas, but no rain is expected. A warmer airmass moving in from the west will help afternoon high temperatures reach the low 80s for most areas.
Low temperatures are forecast to primarily be at or slightly below freezing area wide. We are expecting the coldest temps of the season so far tonight with everyone across north and central GA seeing lows tonight at or below the freezing mark.
705 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2022 Aviation -- Improving Weather Through Week's End -- Persistent deep upper trough responsible for our recent bout of chilly, windy fall weather will finally lift out of the region on Thursday.
535 PM MDT Wed Oct 19 2022 Deep trough persists over the eastern CONUS, with upper ridging over the west. Warm front has made it through the CWA.
801 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2022 Low pressure will drift northeast into southeastern Canada while high pressure builds in from the southern Plains. The southern Appalachians were still located within the base of a large upper level low encompassing much of the eastern CONUS. Most of the mid and upper level energy with this system was located farther north closer to the low's center. Stratocumulus associated with a lee trough still covered the Blue Ridge mountains and foothills, and had spilled over into the Piedmonts. the The ridges will stay mixed and slightly warmer than the lower elevations. Thursday's high temperatures are expected to be warmer than today's, but still around 10F colder than normal.
749 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2022 (through Tonight) The region will be between high pressure building from the west northwest, and a developing inverted trough to the southeast this period. Skies will be clear, except for north central FL counties where clouds will move in ahead of the trough. An inland frost is expected, due to the combination of temperatures falling into the lower to mid 30s and light winds. A few locations well inland could touch freezing around dawn Thursday morning.
The upper level low that has brought the chilly weather and lake effect/upslope showers is currently centered just north of the Great Lakes and will begin to move northward tonight into Thursday. It will be another cold night and the previous shift issued a freeze warning for the counties that still have an active growing season with low temperatures in many locations dropping near or below freezing. The upper low will continue to lift to the north on Thursday while a sharp 500 mb trough swings around the low and across the region late in the day.
607 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022 (This evening through Thursday Night) It's been an all around gorgeous day across SE TX as high pressure remains overhead, with light north winds and observed afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 60s thus far. This should prove for efficient radiative cooling, although overnight lows should be a few degrees higher given the loss of CAA behind the departed cold front. Nonetheless, most locations should again see low temperatures bottoming out in the upper 30s/40s, while coastal locations will see lows in the low to mid 50s. Daytime highs will reach the lower/mid 80s at most locations, while overnight lows will sit mainly in the 50s area-wide.
915 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2022 An upper level low will meander across the Great Lakes and southern Canada through Thursday as high pressure builds across the southern US.
Cool and dry conditions hang around for a couple of days as the high pressure settles in.
224 PM PDT Wed Oct 19 2022 Dry and unseasonably warm conditions continue through the end of the week due to high pressure over the area. Expect temperatures to fall to below normal by the weekend as a trough of low pressure brings cooler air and precipitation to the area. High pressure over the region is providing another day of dry and unseasonably warm conditions over central California today, with high temperatures on track to top out around 10 degrees above normal.
This will also allow for decent radiational cooling through the night with chilly, at or near freezing temperatures. Temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 60s, approaching 70 for the high on Thursday with sunny clear skies.
Warm and dry conditions continue under the persistent upper level high pressure.
Temperatures will peak today under high pressure and offshore flow. Onshore flow, increasing clouds and an approaching low pressure system will bring a cooling trend that will last through the weekend.
304 PM MDT Wed Oct 19 2022 High pressure continues to dominate the Northern Rockies, keeping skies nearly clear across the state. The pattern will start to shift on Thursday, first bringing the peak of the ridge across the area. We will start to note the effects of the approaching system tomorrow, as winds will return to Wyoming normals, with gusts above 30 for the higher elevations and across the central WY wind corridor. Combining that with the warmer nd drier air will bring a critical fire weather threat Thursday afternoon, especially for the I-80 corridor.
The upper level low that has brought the chilly weather and lake effect/upslope showers over the last couple of days is currently centered just north of the Great Lakes and will begin to move northward tonight into Thursday. It will be another cold night and the previous shift issued a freeze warning for the counties that still have an active growing season with low temperatures in many locations dropping near or below freezing. The upper low will continue to lift to the north on Thursday while a sharp 500 mb trough swings around the low and across the region late in the day.
621 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022 (This evening through Thursday) Subsidence continues to build over the CWA this afternoon as the mid/upper-level ridge over the Great Basin translates eastward. Near-neutral geopotential height tendencies are expected over the next 24 hours, and with increasing confluence along the upstream flank of a strengthening high-level jet streak over southeastern Texas, flow throughout the 700-300 mb layer should back to the northwest compared to the north today as the mid/upper-level ridges begins to de-amplify. This will cause the erosion of the stout subsidence inversion that is in place this afternoon over the CWA, with boundary-layer heights ascending to near 3-km AGL across areas west of the edge of the Caprock Escarpment while remaining nearly 1-km lower in the Rolling Plains, yielding high temperatures that will be 3-5 deg F warmer than today.
519 PM MDT Wed Oct 19 2022 High pressure continues to dominate the Northern Rockies, keeping skies nearly clear across the state. The pattern will start to shift on Thursday, first bringing the peak of the ridge across the area. We will start to note the effects of the approaching system tomorrow, as winds will return to Wyoming normals, with gusts above 30 for the higher elevations and across the central WY wind corridor. Combining that with the warmer nd drier air will bring a critical fire weather threat Thursday afternoon, especially for the I-80 corridor.
Anderson (Issued 248 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022) Tonight and Thursday: Improving and less windy conditions are expected going into Thursday as a broad trough of low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes starts to propagate northward across Canada and a warmer air mass gets advected into the western Great Lakes. Currently, the low level stratocu/cu deck has quickly eroded as dry low level air moves into place. Winds will go light on Thursday as weak ridging moves in place while some slightly warmer air moves in from the west.
18Z surface data has high pressure from the Gulf Coast into the upper Midwest. Quiet and dry conditions will be seen tonight and Thursday as high pressure quickly moves through the Midwest.