Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Additional drying aloft with the incoming weak ridge should result in decreasing cloud-cover over SW MT later today. Hoenisch High pressure over the Great Basin and a low pressure trough in Alberta will combine for breezy to windy conditions over North Central Montana through the weekend. Upper level high pressure will keep the forecast area mostly dry today through early Sunday morning. Areas of early morning dense freezing fog remain possible, especially in Southwest Montana, but have removed mention from forecast terminals as temperature/dewpoint spreads at KBZN/KHLN/KEKS do not appear to support fog at this time.
This lifted and thinned the lower cloud deck shutting off most of the drizzle chances that were expected this afternoon. Another impact to these warmer temperatures and the developing warm frontal boundary over our southern CWA is to start scattering out some clouds resulting in temps into the 60s just south of our CWA. Temperatures will remain above freezing Sunday morning keeping all precipitation liquid over northern Missouri. This frontal boundary will be mainly elevated with a weak temperature gradient on the surface but strong CAA aloft associated with a closed low aloft. This cold air will lift and erode the strong subsidence inversion in place and allow some elevated showers and thunderstorms to form along and ahead of the cold front, mainly east of the KS/MO border Sunday evening.
1123 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018 Low clouds are scattering out late this morning in most areas, supporting the warmer forecast high temps later today. Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop by late Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening along and ahead of the dryline and Pacific cold front which will overtake the dryline Sunday evening.
1143 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018 An early analysis of the 12Z NAM shows a southern trend in some of the higher precipitation through Sunday night (06Z was on the high end when compared to a majority of the solutions).
A narrow upper ridge axis extends northeast from Mexico toward the Bluegrass State early this morning. At the surface, weak low pressure was located near the CO/NE border, with high pressure lingering over the Southeast. It's primarily a low stratus scenario, but we'll likely see some fog with dewpoints surging above freezing over the lingering snow. Sunday night looks warm and mainly dry, with central KY/southern IN firmly in the warm sector of a strengthening low pressure system in the Plains.
249 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018 Tonight and Sunday: Mid level ridging in the wake of the departing cold core system along the Gulf Coast will put the lid back on convective/shower possibilities for the majority of the area tonight into Sunday. Though precipitation will be hard to come by through Sunday, the warmth will return in earnest, first with milder overnight lows tonight then for daytime highs Sunday reaching into the low to mid 70s.
Temperatures this afternoon are in the upper 40s to mid 50s with light southwesterly winds in the low levels. In the upper levels, a weak closed lows is drifting to the east along the Northern Gulf Coast. At the surface, a broad area of high pressure extends across the Western Atlantic into the Gulf Coast. Starting to see the clouds erode in many places as the isentropic lift around the high weakens. Due to this, clouds are lingering across the higher elevations. Warm air advection will sweep into the area on Sunday as an upper level trough moves into the Southern Plains.
155 PM MST Sat Jan 20 2018 A storm system will move across the region today, bringing much cooler temperatures, an increase in winds, and chances for light rain. May still some breezes linger as high pressure builds to the north, but speeds should be a bit weaker than observed today. Another strong upper trough will develop across the western U.
This will help keep the lower atmosphere mixed, inhibiting most fog formation. This will mix to the sfc late morning, with winds of 20 to 25 knots possible in the lower valley and around 20 knots in the upper valley during the afternoon. A Wind Advisory is being considered for the lower valley is wind forecast increase any further.
1236 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 High pressure will prevail this weekend.
20/12z BMX sounding indicates the lower levels below 830mb have moistened with low-level moisture trapped underneath a stout subsidence inversion at this level. As a result, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies today with warmer temperatures due to warm advection and decent solar insolation. Lows tonight will be subject to the continuing moderating trend with readings warmer to the west due to more cloud cover while the cooler temperatures are expected to be found across our eastern and northeast counties due to fewer clouds and weaker low-level advection. This favors warmer temperatures, and some locations across our South could touch 70F on Sunday afternoon.
The boundary in the form of a warm front finally lifts north of the area taking the rainfall with it.
An upper level low over the lower Mississippi River Valley will open up as it moves across the region on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will remain in control of the pattern with the flow gradually becoming southeast and and southerly on Sunday. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 40s over southeast Georgia and the Suwannee Valley and the mid to upper 40s over coastal Florida and the areas south of State Road 20.
Light and variable winds tonight will become south to southeast 5 to 7 knots by 18Z and decrease below 5 knots after 00Z as surface ridging clears the region. We are seeing a much warmer eve compared to yesterday eve.
Ridge of high pressure at the surface will continue to settle into the area tonight for mostly clear skies and bitter cold conditions. High pressure continues to builds overhead Friday into Friday night for quiet but bitter cold conditions, Look for highs Friday only in the single digits above zero and lows Friday night in the teens/20s below zero.
The trough over the eastern US will begin to push eastward and an area of high pressure will move into the upper Mississippi River Valley during the day. With the high passing just northeast of the area Friday night into Saturday morning, should be another good night of radiational cooling with light winds. As the high moves into the Ohio River Valley on Saturday, this will allow our winds to become from the south.
/Issued 238 PM CST Thu Jan 4 2018/ Latest upper level analysis indicates well established trough over the eastern third of the CONUS with ridge building in over Great Basin.
Temperatures are elevation dependent as higher spots are staying warmer tonight. A ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather tonight and Friday. Conditions will be dry and warmer than seasonal averages. Winds will be increasing during the day Friday around the foothills ahead of a Pacific trough. As the trough moves across Friday night into Saturday wind still look close to advisory criteria. This trough will quickly move through and will be dry for much of the area with most of the PoPs over the higher terrain.
Secondary sw diving through base of deep ern NOAM upper trough looks to reinvigorate lake plume mid morning-mid aftn Fri with another period of mod-hvy snow within the warning area anticipated. Primary model trend of note is slower ewd ejection of epac sw trough across the Conus Sun-Tue. That said synoptic climo of inverted troughs would suggest a general 2-4" snowfall. Nevertheless open trough aloft allows for a rapid ewd progression with the bulk of snowfall to occur Sun night.
/issued 835 PM CST Thu Jan 4 2018/ Thin cirrus continues to overspread the region from the west late this evening in response to a weak upper level trough located across the Tx Hill Country into Northern Mexico. For our region, the high thin cloud cover will become more and more opaque, especially along and south of the I-20 Corridor as we move towards sunrise. With surface ridging across our region overnight, winds should remain light to near calm across all but our extreme western counties with our northern and northeastern most zones less under the influence of the increasing high clouds.
High pressure will continue to sink south today and tonight, with northwest winds through the day today.
May see a break in the snow showers for a time over the ridges, as drier air undercuts the low-level moisture, but steering winds looks to become optimal late this afternoon, allowing orographic snow showers to redevelop.
Generally light lake effect accumulation but small snowflakes Arctic airmass with -24C to -27C 850 mb temps flowing over the Great Lakes has resulted in lake induced troughing from the Lower Great Lakes northwest into the Upper Great Lakes. Trough is sharpest over south central Lake Superior which is focusing lake effect over north central Upper Michigan with northwest to north winds. NNW wind lake effect will be tapering off late Fri night into Sat as a ridge approaches and moves through. The cold air will lead to persistent freezing spray and heavy freezing spray over much of central and eastern Lake Superior tonight into Fri evening. S to sw winds will then quickly ramp up on Sat night ahead of an approaching low pres trough.
Lows tonight will remain below normal, but a few degrees warmer than minimum temperatures last night. Expect further saturation in the low levels to occur, with light snow reaching the surface by this evening. Rising heights and an evolving warm front will result in modest temperature gradient across the CWA Friday through Saturday. Highs over northeast Missouri will remain in the teens, in part thanks to the anticipated new snow cover from tonight, to the lower/middle 30s over east central Kansas into west central Missouri.
Stagnant, dry PNA pattern again between eastern Canada polar vortex and Mexican ridge. A very weak backdoor cold frontal boundary will trend light winds to an easterly component through Friday afternoon, keeping the eastern zones noticeably cooler.
310 AM CST Fri Jan 5 2018 The region remained under northwesterly flow aloft as a broad mid- level trough stretched across the eastern U. with a mid-level ridge in place across the western U. Models also show some of the low/mid clouds currently over eastern NE sliding into far northeast KS today, which will hinder a rise in temperatures even further with highs only reaching into the upper teens/low 20s over that area compared to mid/upper 20s to low 30s expected elsewhere across the CWA by this afternoon.
Pretty potent disturbance moving across the area this morning but atmosphere is rather dry in the lower and mid levels and any rain generated by the disturbance will evaporate before it reaches the surface. Temperatures near the coast could be nearly steady after midnight, but will not rise since cooler air still remains near the waters. Dew points get into the lower 50s Saturday and with water temperatures in the mid/upper 40s could have some patchy fog developing late as the high moisture moves over the cool waters.
1017 PM CST Thu Jan 4 2018 Considerable cloudiness has kept temperatures up a bit this evening and expect this trend to continue overnight into morning with lows a little warmer than forecast. As the upper level disturbance moves across the area for the evening and overnight period, light precipitation is expected to develop aloft, but it is so dry at the lower levels that any precipitation will evaporate before reaching the ground. As the lift associated with the trough moves through the area this evening and overnight, should see an increase in returns on radar.
18Z surface data has high pressure from western Lake Superior into northern Missouri. First is the amount of dry air in the lower atmosphere.
With overnight lows dropping into the mid- teens, there is also the chance for some freezing fog. High pressure builds back into the region on Friday with quiet weather continuing for the rest of the day.
332 AM CST Fri Jan 5 2018 Clouds will gradually decrease from northeast as a strong high pressure centered over northern Minnesota moves southeastward over the weekend. This will keep the area under a easterly surface flow pattern, leaving most of the low to mid level moisture west of I-29.
913 PM MST Thu Jan 4 2018 Ridging is in place across the western US, and an axis of subsident/dry air is apparent on WV imagery over our CWA. At the surface lee trough has shifted over our western CWA, with a warm front lifting over our eastern CWA. Above normal temps are expected to the west, and below freezing highs possible east of the front.
345 AM CST Fri Jan 5 2018 Noticeably warmer temps expected today ahead of a weak cold front which will move into NE OK this afternoon.
Highs were bumped up a few degrees in spots, more towards a MET/MAV blend with previous forecast as morning temperatures may start a little warmer than forecast.
Weak CAA will develop across far NE OK by this afternoon as a "backdoor" cold front slides southwestward.
High pressure will dominate with just a slight increase in high level clouds. 02 UTC surface analysis shows an area of high pressure across the Mid South near Memphis, TN. With time tonight, the high pressure area to the NW will drift NE and settle over Central Alabama. At present, 02 UTC observations are running a little warmer than the current forecast. The eastern CONUS trough will prevail aloft through the period with ridging through the low-levels. It won't be until Saturday night that the trough begins to deamplify.
Clouds will move in from the west tonight which will help keep overnight lows up some leading to some 'warmer' temps Friday (but still well below guidance in the basins). Main trend since yesterday is an overall weaker system as mean ridge is holding stronger and slightly further east than earlier indicated. The GFS takes the srn part too far south but the nrn piece of the trough impacts the far nern zones.
403 AM EST Fri Jan 5 2018 Cold high pressure will dominate through the weekend.
Slightly warmer temperatures expected overnight with lows ranging from the upper 20s across northeast Louisiana and southern Arkansas to the mid 30s across east Texas. Gradual warming trend to continue through Saturday with the warmer temperatures mainly reflected in the overnight lows as moisture increases across the region. Low temperatures on Saturday night to remain above freezing across the entire region ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s.
328 AM CST Fri Jan 5 2018 It will be another pleasant day across the forecast area with a broad ridge just off to our west and a relatively weak pressure gradient across the region keeping winds on the light side.
An upper ridge over the Great Basin is helping to bring continued dry weather and mostly clear skies to the region. Highs on the plains will range from the lower 40s over the far NE plains to the mid to upper 50s along the base of the foothills. The upper level trough developing off the northern California and Oregon coasts is forecast to hold itself together and bring down heights over the western U.
1026 PM MST Thu Jan 4 2018 An upper level ridge will continue building into the area tonight with the ridge axis being over UT by Fri morning, where it will remain thru the day Fri. Will tend to stay on the cooler side of guidance given that high level clouds are expected and could limit the amount of warming. The upper-level ridge and dry northwest flow will remain over the southwest U. Saturday highs will range from the low to mid 50s across the plains and mountain valleys.
/issued 155 PM CST Thu Jan 4 2018/ Seeing slightly cooler temperatures this afternoon with increased cloud cover across the region today.
As of noon today, all of our forecast area is expected to be above freezing and on the way to highs in the mid- to upper-40s. With the warmer temperatures today and lows tonight only expected to drop into the mid- to low-20s, the threat for hard freeze criteria to be met is very low.
Unseasonably cold conditions persist across the state, but most locations have managed to reach or rise above the freezing mark today, with the exception of the far N and NE. Gusty NW winds (thanks to the strong low pressure system hammering the Northeast with snow) are still making it feel like the teens and 20s though. With light/calm winds allowing for good radiational cooling, overnight lows will fall into the lower teens north to around 20 degrees in the south.
1254 AM EST Fri Jan 5 2018 Cold high pressure will dominate through the weekend.
Today Through Saturday Night Northwest flow aloft continues across the state this morning, with high pressure at the surface centered north of Minnesota extending south toward the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures will be a bit warmer today with quite a bit of sunshine expected along with light winds. High pressure will intensify from the north on Saturday bringing cooler air back to the area and widespread easterly winds. This will be brief however, with high pressure expected to shift eastward Saturday night.
Skies over the island chain are mostly clear in the Middle and Upper Keys and partly cloudy in the Lower Keys. Temperatures range from the mid 50s in the Middle and Upper Keys to near 60 degrees in the Lower Keys.
With westerly winds, the temperatures have warmed up to near or above freezing. With some snow melt going on and the current dew points warmer than the current forecast lows, there could be some fog around. Have decided to keep mention of some patchy fog mainly in the west, but wonder if there may be some further to the east as temperatures in the east rise to around freezing as well. There will be a cold front that pushes into the area from the northeast during the night.
High pressure aloft will persist across the region through Friday night. This high pressure will weaken as a storm system advances across the Great Basin Saturday through Saturday night.
Low teens and single digits should settle in for everyone in the morning, with the lowest temperatures over the northern Cumberland Plateau.
Cold air was to the east and warmer air to the west.
Tonight Through Saturday With the strong upper low moving up the east coast. The large upper ridge also continues over the western U. The low will move up the east coast but this general pattern will continue through the short term period. A weak cold front moves through the state on Friday but should only bring a few high clouds with it. Highs on Friday will be warmer in the upper 30s to upper 40s but cooler on Saturday with highs in the lower 30s to upper 40s.
Once again it will be a bit warmer tonight than last night as the atmosphere continues to modify. Dew points are in the lower 20s acrs cntrl La and mid to upr 20s in se Tx and swrn La.
As the low moves toward the Pacific northwest it will push the front through the region tonight into Friday. Freezing levels are fairly high so snow will be confined to the higher elevations. For the mid and lower elevations the precipitation will likely be rain or freezing rain. As the airmass warms Friday many locations will change from freezing rain to rain. The low will cross the forecast area Fri night then high pressure will build in Saturday with decreasing precipitation and clouds. Light freezing rain or rain developing tonight and continuing into Friday as a low pressure system and front move across the region.
Strong NNW gradient flow remains across southeast Michigan with an arctic high pressure drifting through south Ontario and a strong Nor'easter riding up the east coast. Weak cold air advection today through 12Z tomorrow morning can be characterized by 850 mb and 925 mb temperatures decreasing a few more degrees into the low to mid -20C range. Winds are expected to remain elevated between 5 to 15 mph with the highest winds residing in the Thumb and eastern edges of the CWA. A high pressure will begin to drift south into the western Great Lakes which will help calm winds down by Saturday afternoon.
We remain in a very radiational pattern with high pressure centered over the area. Wind will be light so wind chills shouldn't be much more than a degree or two cooler than temperatures. /issued 525 PM CST Thu Jan 4 2018/ After a brief break above freezing yesterday, temperatures today are struggling to get into the 30s across the Midsouth with Arctic high pressure building into the region.
A weak cold front will then slide south through the area on Friday. The influence of this high pressure will then come into play as upper level energy approaches the region starting on Saturday night.
Freezing rain and some snow is expected in the Cascade passes through Friday. An upper trough will move east by Friday evening with any mixed precipitation becoming rain in the passes.
Webcam and GOES-East observed trends trough 0347 UTC depict fog developing across Bowman county, and perhaps to a lesser extent across portions of Slope and Golden Valley counties. Expect a band of very light snow to continue through the night central and far northwest in association with the low level baroclinic zone. To the west towards the warmer side of the thermal gradient an opportunity for freezing drizzle exists tonight, mostly in a thin zone from Williams and McKenzie counties down southeast through Grant County. Further west and south, enhanced low level moisture and upper level ridging bring a possibility of fog and reduced visibilities. Issued at 3:33 PM CST Thu Jan 4 2018 Upper level ridging shifts into the area Saturday bringing seasonably warm temperatures to western North Dakota where cloud coverage is diminished.
Temperatures near or slightly warmer than last night at most locations. Temperatures a bit warmer than today looking at progged 700 mb temperature trends. The airmass continues to slowly moderate, making for minimum temperatures slightly warmer than the previous night.
For Tonight, dry northwest flow and surface ridging will produce clear sky. Good radiational cooling night with allow temperatures to drop into the single digits to lower teens most locations with enough wind over the higher terrain to drop wind chills between 5 and 15 below zero.
1138 PM MST Thu Jan 4 2018 Upper level ridging parked over the Great Basin will remain in place tonight with patchy high clouds drifting through the region. The ridge starts to flatten out a bit on Friday with a general increase in mid and high level moisture. Ridge continues to level out Friday night as Pacific energy rides into the Great Basin. Will also see winds shifting from the NW to W, especially over our higher ridges.
A cold front will move through the area tonight through Friday morning. High pressure ridging into the area will help to bring cooler low temperatures, lower humidities and drier weather to close out the week followed by a gradual warmup over the weekend with a return of onshore winds. Drier weather can be expected during the second half of the week with the passage of another cold front. A cold front should finally push through early Friday morning with offshore flow.
Low pressure will exit Indiana tonight. High pressure over the southern plains is then expected to build across the Ohio Valley on Friday. bringing the work week to an end on a dry and slightly warmer note.
The rain was short lived, but we return to our typical northwest flow pattern, of dry weather, with some embedded cold fronts occasionally clipping the Panhandles.
311 PM EDT Thu Mar 29 2018 Low pressure will track northeast through eastern New York overnight and into northern Maine by Friday morning. A trailing cold front will push offshore Friday afternoon.
With fairly dry low levels in the highway 14 corridor, precipitation chances should remain to the north of the forecast area tonight. Still expect a much milder day than today, with highs still managing to reach the lower 40s to mid 50s.
1224 PM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018 At 3 AM, a cold front extended from Green Bay to Columbia Missouri. On Friday, a trough moves east across northeast Minnesota and Upper Michigan.
336 PM EDT Thu Mar 29 2018 High pressure will weaken as it moves offshore through tonight.
249 PM EDT Thu Mar 29 2018 High pressure is beginning to be pushed to the east ahead of an approaching trough, and its associated cold front. There is also a 500mb ridge that is pushing east as well.