Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As the wave driving the winds and the warm up moves east neutral westerly flow will be in place this evening, then later tonight and into Sunday morning cold advection will increase as a weaker wave within a broad trough moves through. Sunday morning will see a continued threat for light snow in the same areas as model soundings try to saturate the dendritic layer and do hint that there will be enough moisture in the lower levels to support some patchy light snow if saturation aloft occurs. Temperatures may be a few ticks warmer than expected as models continue to hint that the brunt of the colder air will stay to the northeast and we will mainly see a glancing blow.
Although snow will continue to melt with high temperatures climbing back into the lower 40s in most areas, still expect temperatures to drop into the teens tonight as light southerly winds develop.
As a result of the clearing and decoupling winds, temps have fallen below freezing areawide this evening, although some light NW winds persist which is keeping the air mixed enough to prevent temps from falling as quickly as previously thought. However, this should be temporary, as strong sfc ridging anchored over the Srn Plains continues to slowly build E into the region. Otherwise, a slow warmup will commence Saturday as stronger insolation results in temperatures climbing back above freezing by mid to late morning areawide.
1226 AM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 Rain showers will continue into tonight as a cold front crosses the region. High pressure and much cooler air will be over the area Saturday into Sunday.
Meanwhile KMWH and KEPH have a light northeast wind which probably means that the low clouds will also move in there, but probably not spread into KEAT.
Highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s are in place Saturday using the NBM 75th percentile dataset which is warmer than than the guidance blend. An upper trof will move through the region Saturday night and Sunday.
(Early this morning) Issued at 137 AM EST SAT FEB 5 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the lower Great Lakes this morning.
1253 AM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 Periods of light snow remain possible through early Saturday morning before Arctic high pressure builds in. There is some uncertainty in temperatures overnight, however in general trended cooler across locations with more snow on the ground. The combination of cool temperatures and some winds will lead to the potential for isolated pockets of wind chill values cooler than negative 10, however confidence in this occurring was not high enough to go with a wind chill advisory. Arctic high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley during the day and offers a period of dry conditions with very cold temperatures.
A large positively-tilted upper-level trough will continue pushing eastwards, moving off the Eastern Seaboard by Saturday afternoon. At the surface, high pressure will be in control for the weekend, as it builds across the eastern half of CONUS.
108 AM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 Cool and dry high pressure will push into the area behind the departing cold front tonight, and settle along the East Coast over the weekend.
Satellite imagery shows dry cold front now passing through our CWA. The associated upper trough will bring cooling aloft, however, which will vent any stagnant air below. Saturday will bring clearing skies and the start of another inversion as the main upper ridge builds inland again.
301 AM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 Arctic high pressure will keep the weekend mainly dry with a warming trend.
348 AM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the lower Great Lakes this morning. Pattern across North America continues to present large scale ridging going up the west coast and broad troughing across it's eastern third. Generally speaking 2 to 4 inches looks possible through the event, with the higher amounts being expected across the higher terrain.
1146 PM CST Fri Feb 4 2022 The main trough hanging over the Middle Mississippi Valley today will continue to push southeast toward the Ohio and Tennessee Valley's tonight. It's possible that southeast KS sees some patchy freezing fog tonight though confidence isn't high at this times so did not add to the grids. The sfc pressure gradient tightens up slightly tomorrow, ahead of the next trough set to push through the region on Sunday. Another round of freezing fog will be possible early Sunday, just ahead of the weak cold front which will push through the area.
The fairly persistent strong ridging near the west coast of North America will flatten significantly as Pacific jet energy breaks through the ridge and sweeps east across the continent. This area may be a little further north than previous forecasts, and shifted the highest chances north somewhat. Temperatures will rebound into the mid teens north to the low 20s south.
325 AM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 Arctic high pressure will keep the weekend mainly dry with a warming trend.
For our western counties, temperatures will dip down into the lower teens, with wind chills around zero degrees. At the surface, numerous cold fronts will pass through, seesawing our winds.
1258 AM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 A cold front will move offshore tonight through Saturday as high pressure builds in from the west.
1101 PM CST Fri Feb 4 2022 GOES Water vapor imagery early this afternoon shows a potent mid- level trough passing across the area with pronounced darkening/drying evident across southern MN into central IA. The band of light snow associated with the trough will continue to shift east of the area by late afternoon with accumulations a few tenths of an inch possible.
This is due to high pressure that reaches southwestward across Florida retreating northeastward as a cold front advances southward through the Gulf of Mexico. Lower to mid level ridging remains across the area but is weakening. The rather small water temperature and dew points temperature delta, along with backing winds and mostly clear skies, may work in concert to generate patchy fog and low ceilings primarily on our gulf side waters of the Lower Keys and western Middle Keys. High pressure that extends into Florida will retreat northeastward overnight as a cold front spreads southward across the Gulf of Mexico.
The first disturbance will drive a clipper through the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes on Saturday, shunting an attendant N-S oriented warm front through the Upper/Mid Mississippi Valley. The warm front supported by relatively deep WSW flow should result in a sustained warm air advection on Saturday and Sunday.
1235 AM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 Snow, sleet, and freezing rain will taper off this evening, with a frigid airmass filtering in tonight. Midlevel trough axis pivots through the region Saturday along with its associated cold pool with 850 mb temps falling to -15 to -20C. The high should briefly work its way overhead Saturday night, which should lead to ideal radiational cooling conditions. Undercut the lows where snowpack exists, especially where it is deep over the southern Adirondacks. Sunday, the high shifts east with some return flow kicking in, which should lead to a modest warning trend. Dry weather is expected to continue with a cyclone forming over the western Great Lakes which should be too far away to impact our area.
Biggest change for the overnight period was to keep PoPs in through the night and also increase to likely over the ridges. The trough axis will not pass through the region until shortly before dawn.
(This afternoon through Saturday night) Temperatures have finally risen above freezing this afternoon in most locations across West TX and southeast NM. A weak cold front will begin to drop into the region late Saturday night with lows bottoming out mainly in the low to mid 20s Sunday morning.
Will also be adding updates to reduce cloud cover behind the cold front currently pressing eastward past I-57. Upstream obs show gusts of 25-30mph across central Iowa and some of this higher momentum air will spill into central Illinois this evening. As the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the next approaching cold front, gusty southerly winds will develop Saturday night.
238 AM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 Light lake effect snow showers will come to an end by early this afternoon with high pressure building in. Light lake effect snow showers/flurries will continue through the morning, but will start to wind down by early this afternoon with high pressure/ridging building in from the SW. High pressure settles overhead tonight and skies will clear and winds become calm. High pressure shifts off to our east and warm SW return flow develops. Temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 20s across most of the area, with a few spots possibly getting into the low 30s under partly cloudy skies.
1028 PM EST Fri Feb 4 2022 Periods of light snow remain possible through early Saturday morning before Arctic high pressure builds in. There is some uncertainty in temperatures overnight, however in general trended cooler across locations with more snow on the ground. The combination of cool temperatures and some winds will lead to the potential for isolated pockets of wind chill values cooler than negative 10, however confidence in this occurring was not high enough to go with a wind chill advisory. Arctic high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley during the day and offers a period of dry conditions with very cold temperatures.
This translates to surface temperatures in the low 50s across north central KS to the lower 40s in east central KS. The residual snow cover across east central KS could keep temperatures a degree or two cooler than currently forecast. Weak surface ridging will move into the area behind the front, yielding light winds for Sunday. Hazard of LLWS still looks to be offset by the increase of sustained and wind gusts before the sfc to 2kft layer begins to see stronger low level winds increase in association with flow aloft and a lee trough deepening.
Did issue an SPS for the black ice potential for the entire forecast area due to wet roadways and sub-freezing temperatures. Model temperature profiles show that it is still only marginally cold enough for ice production in the moist layer in our southeast counties, and it's possible some of what's occurring there is freezing drizzle. A cold front currently over northern MO and northern IL will move southeast. The good radiating conditions will set us up for a cold night with some ridge/valley differences, with the coldest valleys forecast to drop to around 10.
235 AM EST Sat Feb 05 2022 Cold high pressure centered to our NW will settle overhead tonight and Sunday bringing colder temperatures.
240 AM EST Sat Feb 05 2022 Cold high pressure centered to our NW will settle overhead tonight and Sunday bringing colder temperatures.
This translates to surface temperatures in the low 50s across north central KS to the lower 40s in east central KS. The residual snow cover across east central KS could keep temperatures a degree or two cooler than currently forecast. Weak surface ridging will move into the area behind the front, yielding light winds for Sunday.
Light northerly winds will prevail at all sites becoming variable overnight as high pressure becomes centered over the region. Borderline hard freezing conditions may briefly occur over this area over the next few hours. Closer to the coast, winds remain elevated and temperatures are just reaching freezing. Winds will continue to lessen closer to the coast through the morning as high pressure currently over central Texas becomes centered over the region. High pressure and a very dry atmosphere remain in place through Sunday night.
647 AM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 An upper level trough will swing over area early Saturday, then high pressure will build into the state the rest of the weekend. Decent little trough passing overhead this morning, but it lacks moisture. Without much if any snow cover over the Lower Susq and the downslope flow, they will have the best chc at getting near freezing. Sunday is dry and a warmer day, too. Much of the area will get close to, or over freezing.
Snowfall totals during this surge of lift and moisture could be 1 to 3 inches across north-central Wisconsin with the highest totals closer to the Michigan border. The clipper system will bring warmer air into the region, with gusty southerly winds expected this afternoon. Lows tonight will be noticeably warmer given the continued warm air advection and cloud cover; ranging from the single digits above zero across north- central and middle to upper teens across east- central Wisconsin and the lakeshore. Highs on Sunday will be even warmer, ranging from around 20 across north- central Wisconsin to around 30 across east-central Wisconsin and the lakeshore.
445 AM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 An upper level trough will swing over area early Saturday, then high pressure will build into the state the rest of the weekend. Decent little trough passing overhead this morning, but it lacks moisture. Without much if any snow cover over the Lower Susq and the downslope flow, they will have the best chc at getting near freezing. Sunday is dry and a warmer day, too. Much of the area will get close to, or over freezing.
847 AM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 Arctic high pressure will keep the weekend mainly dry with a warming trend.
515 AM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 A cold front reaches southwest from Central Florida to the Bay of Campeche. Over the past 12-hours, the cold front has made some progress to the south, despite its parallel alignment to the mean layer flow. Temperatures are in the lower 70s with dewpoints in the upper 60s.
High pressure aloft resumes control today and remains in control through much of the forecast period. Meanwhile, a thermal trough develops today along the coast and this will bring easterly flow to the area through much of the forecast period as well.
307 AM PST Sat Feb 5 2022 High pressure will build over the region this weekend with dry weather and areas of low clouds and fog.
No changes to the current Freeze and Hard Freeze Warnings are expected as temperatures have fallen below freezing across the northern ranchlands and should fall below freezing across the Rio Grande Valley by morning. a weak coastal trough will develop offshore the northeast Mexican coast Sunday. Some light rain/drizzle may develop across portions of the lower Rio Grande Valley Sun afternoon. High seas offshore the lower Texas coast this morning will continue to provide a high risk of rip currents in the surf of area beaches along the lower Texas coast.
An expansive area of high pressure will continue to sit off the West Coast for much of this week.
306 AM CST Sat Feb 5 2022 Surface ridging extends over the forecast area early this morning. Other factor today will be increasing southerly winds as the pressure gradient tightens in the wake of the departing ridge. Finally, despite comparatively warmer high temperatures today in the teens to mid 20s, the brisk winds will make it feel more like single digits above/below zero. One of these, along with a cold front, looks to cross our area late tonight, possibly bringing some light snow to part of the area before daybreak. Expect warmer nighttime lows in the teens above zero. Did expand PoPs to the entire area during the day with forecast soundings showing some moisture to work with in the low levels.
Therefore highs could be slightly warmer than yesterday despite the clouds. The main forcing for the first wave will stay north of the area, but a secondary wave will drop in on the backside on the trough and take a more direct path over the forecast area. The quick moving wave and meager moisture will limit snow accumulations to a few inches in the higher elevations and perhaps an inch in the adjacent valleys. Highs will be similar to today, but the mountains may be slightly colder under the influence of the air mass from the passing trough.
The rise should be enough to end the prolonged period of sub-freezing temperatures for all except high terrain locales. This will mean warmer temperatures in the east, along with a moderate, gusty wind in the afternoon. Highs today will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer in the west, and 10 to 20 degrees warmer in the east.
Even as some of this warmer air aloft mixes down to the surface today, the net effect will be pretty minimal with a healthy snowpack in place. We're expecting temperatures to warm into the low-to-middle 20s this afternoon. Some melting should occur on Sunday with healthy southerly winds boosting temperatures into the 30s ahead of the cold front. Some flurries may accompany frontal passage Sunday night, mainly for locations along and north of the I-74 corridor, but mid-level dry air and general lack of cloud ice are limiting factors that could ultimately yield freezing drizzle.
Our normal highs run from the mid 50s north to the lower 60s southeast. Morning lows will be in the low to mid 20s at most locations. /22/ Sunday through Saturday On Sunday, sfc ridging will persist, allowing the region to stay cool and dry, which will permit a pleasant end to the weekend.
328 AM CST Sat Feb 5 2022 A much warmer airmass will spread east across the region while southerly surface winds increase today. Strong mixing should take place by the afternoon ahead and along a weak cold front that is slated to slide into the region this afternoon.
High pressure will bring a gradual warming trend over the weekend.
Some scattered rain chances will move back over the area early Sunday through the day as an area of low pressure starts to develop over the Gulf Stream off the FL east coast.
(Today through Sunday afternoon) Warmer temperatures are expected this afternoon as southerly surface flow returns today. A upper trough will swing down across New Mexico on Sunday, sending a weak cold front through the region and shifting surface winds around to the north. This will slow down our warming trend as Sunday looks to only be a few degrees above Saturday with highs in the low 50s.
With another day of abundant sunshine expected, a good amount of melting wl occur as the mercury tops the freezing mark.
Immediately upstream of departing midlevel trough axis, west- northwesterly flow was still moist enough for stratus per nighttime microphysics RGB. Low-amplitude mean ridging will cross the region Saturday, and southwesterly flow will strengthen Sunday ahead of the next upper level trough.
Easterly flow on Sunday will help moderate temperatures with readings back to normal for early February, with highs in the lower to middle 50s.
Borderline hard freezing conditions may briefly occur over this area over the next few hours. Closer to the coast, winds remain elevated and temperatures are just reaching freezing. Winds will continue to lessen closer to the coast through the morning as high pressure currently over central Texas becomes centered over the region. High pressure and a very dry atmosphere remain in place through Sunday night.
The upper wave will cross the area today, bringing an increase in clouds, a weak cold front, and gusty NW winds. Lingering snow Sunday morning will end through the day as upper ridging builds back into the region.
An 850 mb level trough/warm front is being driven across the Northern Plains. Overnight lows are not likely to exceed the low and mid 20s based on the NBM's 95 percent probability distribution. A progressive and positively tilted upper trough will move across the northern and central Plains through Sunday night.
Across the plains temperatures will be warmer today but some slowing with temperatures with mountain wave cloud cover this morning. Expect more afternoon sun as the wave fades away with downslope warming contributing to warmer temperatures today. An associated cold front will drop southward over the plains later tonight with increasing low level northerly flow. A quick moving front associated with an upper-level trough will speed southward across NE Colorado through Sunday morning. Expect things to dry quickly by the afternoon as the trough exits the area.
Most locations will rise above freezing finally today, with upper 30s possible west of Highway 65. These southerly winds will continue through the night, as low pressure moves into Iowa. Low temperatures tonight will likely be at least 10 degrees warmer than this morning.
Impressive trough axis is coming through slower which is allowing the scattered snow showers and flurries to continue.
321 AM CST Sat Feb 5 2022 An upper level short wave trough was moving southeast through northern Montana this morning. An upper level jet will move down the back side of this trough and it will help to sharpen this positively tilted wave as it swings through the Plains. The short wave trough will then move across the Panhandles Sunday afternoon and evening. A cold front will move through the Panhandles tonight into Sunday morning.
630 AM EST Sat Feb 05 2022 Cold high pressure centered to our NW will settle overhead tonight and Sunday bringing colder temperatures.
Warmer waters from bays and Gulf waters will keep the islands near or above freezing this morning. Clear skies and lighter north winds will occur today with temperatures warming into the lower to mid 50s. Could see temperatures fall below freezing for a brief time over the inland coastal plains to eastern Brush Country tonight. Warming trend will continue with highs in the lower to mid 60s inland.
An area of low pressure sits just off the Carolina coast with a trailing cold front extending down into the extreme southeast Gulf of Mexico.
A large positively-tilted upper-level trough will continue pushing eastwards, moving off the Eastern Seaboard by this afternoon. At the surface, high pressure will be in control for the weekend, as it builds across the eastern half of CONUS.
Vertz Medium range models were still advertising a locked in pattern of strong ridging along the Pacific coast and troffing over the eastern US.
Mostly clear skies and light winds expected again tonight, with temperatures falling into the lower and middle 20s by daybreak Sunday.
Winds will then switch to the north and northwest behind a cold front at speeds around 15 knots this evening. /Issued 321 AM CST Sat Feb 5 2022/ An upper level short wave trough was moving southeast through northern Montana this morning. An upper level jet will move down the back side of this trough and it will help to sharpen this positively tilted wave as it swings through the Plains. The short wave trough will then move across the Panhandles Sunday afternoon and evening. A cold front will move through the Panhandles tonight into Sunday morning.
920 AM EST Sat Feb 05 2022 Cold high pressure centered to our NW will settle overhead tonight and Sunday bringing colder temperatures.
931 AM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 A cold front draped across the Florida peninsula is producing cloudy skies and some spots of light rain this morning.
434 AM CST Sat Feb 5 2022 Current surface analysis places low stretching from the lee of the Canadian Rockies into southern Saskatchewan, with a warm front pushing through the western Dakotas. Upper level analysis places ridge off the Pacific Northwest/Canadian coast, with a notable short wave pushing through the northern plains. Ahead of the warm front, temperatures remain in the single digits to the teens, while behind the front temperatures have jumped into the 30s, even a few lower 40s. For today, warm front continues to push west, resulting in mild temperatures over most locations, with the exception of the area around the Turtle Mountains. Have left a mention for the possibility for some freezing drizzle, especially towards the end of the precipitation, as forecast soundings continue to suggest that there may be a little lack of ice to work with.
Temperatures should be fairly similar to the morning, with overnight lows generally ranging in the low to mid 20s. Temperatures should be a few degrees warms tonight/Sunday morning in Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas, and East Texas as another day of above freezing temperatures should help to melt what little ice and snow remains on the ground. Southwesterly winds are expected areawide ahead of an approaching cold front being pushed southeast by the aforementioned Rockies upper trough. While still below climo, most locations should warm into the lower to mid 50s for daytime highs Sunday.