Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
319 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 Amid generally weak and zonal flow aloft, a meandering trough was moving out of the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains this afternoon. A ridging pattern develops with mid-level height rises aloft on Wednesday. The synoptic pattern through the second half of the week is characterized by height rises and ridging over the Rockies to the west. This will bring warmer temperatures this weekend as the ridge and warm low level air mass approaches.
1040 AM PDT Tue Jun 7 2022 Today will be warmer with afternoon temperatures in the 70s.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night): A mid-level ridge of high pressure maintains above normal temperatures and dry conditions across Deep South Texas through mid-week.
202 PM EDT Tue Jun 7 2022 A cold front will arrive from the west this evening but stall overhead through Wednesday.
145 PM EDT Tue Jun 7 2022 A cold front will arrive from the west this evening but stall overhead through Wednesday.
Temps will cool as well, with overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70, followed by afternoon highs only reaching the lower 70s in the north to the around 80 in the southeast.
(This evening through Wednesday) A mid-level trough is currently observed via water vapor loop over eastern Wyoming. The associated dynamic lift and upslope flow will generate thunderstorms over the high plains this afternoon/evening. The aforementioned trough will drive a cold front into our area tomorrow with highs a few degrees cooler than today.
High temperatures for this afternoon will reach into the lower 90s over inland areas and in the upper 80s along the coastline. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the lower 70s tonight over inland areas and in the mid 70s for coastal areas.
128 PM EDT Tue Jun 7 2022 A cold front will push across Central PA from NW to SE this evening and early tonight. Showers will move across all of central PA this afternoon and evening, with perhaps a few thunderstorms across the northwest as well associated with the cold front.
132 PM EDT Tue Jun 7 2022 Outside of a few showers into this morning, drier and cooler conditions will dominate into early Wednesday. While the lingering area of precip will shift east and weaken with time main cold front is still set to slowly drop in this morning. Chances for showers/storms will quickly increase by Wed afternoon with the next trough dropping in from the north. Definitely leaning towards the lower end at this point with lack of deeper moisture. More significant trough will be carved out as piece of Pacific energy ejects out of the NW states and another trough drops out of Canada from the Hudson Bay closed low. Cutoff upper low will only make slow progress east across Ontario over the weekend keeping the area on the "cooler" side with highs in the 70s.
Noticeably cooler on Wednesday due to rain and cloud cover.
A weak cold front has moved farther south than originally expected bringing MAF/HOB easterly winds. the cold front did make it through much of the Permian Basin this afternoon.
1121 AM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 (Rest of Today) Moisture transport maxima and convergence continues to maintain small MCS clusters across north AL and southern TN eastward into the lower Smoky Mtns. Weak QG forcing could limit the extent of the activity with weak ridging shifting into the area, so have modified PoPs somewhat for areal extent based on new suggested blends. This is likely with dew points in the lower 70s with highs forecast in the middle to upper 80s.
----BMickelson Previous discussion: Showers will continue across the north this morning, then shift southward as a low pressure system drifts into the Dakotas. The rain will gradually dissipate in the late afternoon and evening with high pressure moving into eastern Montana. An upper ridge building into the northern Rockies will shift eastward on Wednesday bringing warmer and drier conditions.
Current temperatures have been rain cooled and are mostly in the lower 70s.
Amid generally weak and zonal flow aloft, a meandering trough was moving out of the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains this afternoon. A ridging pattern develops with mid-level height rises aloft on Wednesday. The synoptic pattern through the second half of the week is characterized by height rises and ridging over the Rockies to the west. This will bring warmer temperatures this weekend as the ridge and warm low level air mass approaches.
So will focus on the thunderstorms that will be moving toward the area from the High Plains of eastern Colorado and western Kansas. Additional thunderstorms may also develop along the cold front that will be moving into the area overnight. (This evening through Wednesday) A mid-level trough is currently observed via water vapor loop over eastern Wyoming. The associated dynamic lift and upslope flow will generate thunderstorms over the high plains this afternoon/evening. The aforementioned trough will drive a cold front into our area tomorrow with highs a few degrees cooler than today.
305 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022 The bulk of this trough and embedded energy has moved past the Rockies this afternoon. Now it looks like we have mixed down drier air and picking up some gustier winds to create pockets of critical fire weather as humidity drops into the lower teens. The H500 hand analysis map this morning was indicating a clear Omega Block pattern setting up in the higher latitude of NOAM. This pattern will suppress the stronger northeast Pacific troughs from entering the western CONUS.
749 PM EDT Tue Jun 7 2022 Showers and thunderstorms will end with passage of a cold front this evening. Rain will return again by tomorrow evening with crossing low pressure. No major changes were needed for the eve update as the encroaching cold front continues to generate numerous showers and a few storms. Wednesday will begin quiet, with high pressure attempting to clear the clouds before another low supported by the jet stream and frontogenesis will approach overnight. Restrictions including lcl IFR are expected this eve as showers and storms cross the region with a cold front.
Decided to exclude any mention of showers in the current package given the low coverage. Southeast Texas continues through this warming trend as ridging aloft remains overhead. Should this low level cumulus cloud field fail to develop in the morning, then temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than that.
302 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022 After a few isolated showers and thunderstorms today, high pressure will build into the area for Wednesday, bringing relatively calm winds and clear skies.
940 PM EDT Tue Jun 7 2022 Rich tropical moisture advecting from the Caribbean waters infiltrated the lower troposphere resulting in a muggy and wet day for all of the Keys. In contrast, the Lower and Middle Keys received 0.
Two main corridors of greater convective coverage are expected with one of them being across the Tennessee Valley vicinity as the remnant MCS progresses east and reintensifies through the day ahead of the cold front that is moving into the Ohio Valley. There will be a broad area of moderately strong deep layer flow combining with an advancing mid-level short wave trough.
Area remains sandwiched between a large upper low over Hudson Bay and weak upper ridging to the west with a weak wave dropping down through the region today into Wednesday. It will also keep temperatures similar to the past few days with the coolest overnight lows tonight into the northeast, and warmer conditions south/west beneath the cloud cover.
the cold front did make it through much of the Permian Basin this afternoon.
811 PM EDT Tue Jun 7 2022 A cold front will push across Central PA from NW to SE this evening and early tonight. High pressure will briefly build into the area Wednesday, then low pressure approaching from the Ohio Valley will lift across the state Wednesday night.
728 PM EDT Tue Jun 7 2022 High pressure will linger through tonight. A trough of low pressure will develop inland tomorrow ahead of an approaching cold front. Lows feature upper 60s inland to the low/mid 70s along the coast.
303 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022 The bulk of this trough and embedded energy has moved past the Rockies this afternoon. Now it looks like we have mixed down drier air and picking up some gustier winds to create pockets of critical fire weather as humidity drops into the lower teens. The H500 hand analysis map this morning was indicating a clear Omega Block pattern setting up in the higher latitude of NOAM. This pattern will suppress the stronger northeast Pacific troughs from entering the western CONUS.
633 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 (This evening through Wednesday) An Excessive Heat Warning will remain in place through this afternoon as high pressure will continue to sit across the region for the remainder of today and tomorrow.
A strong ridge of high pressure will build over the area through the week leading to much warmer weather. The hottest temperatures yet this season are in store late this week and Heat Warnings are in effect for the lower elevations. Another warm and breezy day is underway across northern Arizona in advance of a ridge beginning to build across the western states. This ridge will build over much of the west and southwest through the coming week leading to the hottest weather yet this season.
759 PM EDT Tue Jun 7 2022 Showers and thunderstorms will end with passage of a cold front this evening. Rain will return again by tomorrow evening with crossing low pressure. No major changes were needed for the eve update as the encroaching cold front continues to generate numerous showers and a few storms. Wednesday will begin quiet, with high pressure attempting to clear the clouds before another low supported by the jet stream and frontogenesis will approach overnight. Restrictions including lcl IFR are expected this eve as showers and storms cross the region with a cold front.
917 PM EDT Tue Jun 7 2022 A cold front will push across Central PA from NW to SE this evening and early tonight. High pressure will briefly build into the area Wednesday, then low pressure approaching from the Ohio Valley will lift across the state Wednesday night.
818 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022 After a few isolated showers and thunderstorms today, high pressure will build into the area for Wednesday, bringing relatively calm winds and clear skies.
The dry air in the low levels will only hold off the rain for a short time because the stronger forcing and deeper moisture will arrive by 12Z.
A weak cold front will help focus low level convergence for the soupy and warming air mass to initiate showers/thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening peak heating hours. While a lull may occur, there is still a chance of showers with a returning warm front in association with the next vigorous wave of energy poised to be incoming early tmrw.
On Wednesday, most of the cwa will see a reprieve in rw/trw as upper ridging works in from the west.
Warm evening temperatures in the 80s are forecast to settle in the low to mid 70s tonight.
721 PM EDT Tue Jun 7 2022 Loss of daytime heating and a ridge of higher pressure will erode remaining cloud cover this evening, leading to clear conditions overnight. Mostly sunny skies persist through the afternoon and evening as any residual moisture is scoured out by uniform northwest flow, allowing temperatures to rebound into the low 70s this afternoon and evening. Clear skies and light winds create favorable conditions for patchy fog development overnight as temperatures drop into the lower 50s, mainly atop wet areas from recent rainfall. Otherwise, dry weather persists through early half of tomorrow as the high pressure center translates overhead.
514 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022 The bulk of this trough and embedded energy has moved past the Rockies this afternoon. Now it looks like we have mixed down drier air and picking up some gustier winds to create pockets of critical fire weather as humidity drops into the lower teens. The H500 hand analysis map this morning was indicating a clear Omega Block pattern setting up in the higher latitude of NOAM. This pattern will suppress the stronger northeast Pacific troughs from entering the western CONUS.
High pressure building in from the east will keep winds in check, however, a rouge gust from 18 to 20 kts could be possible during the afternoon.
After a few isolated showers and thunderstorms today, high pressure will build into the area for Wednesday, bringing relatively calm winds and clear skies.
No rainfall detected by radar over the region, and not expecting any significant precipitation overnight as high pressure aloft will keep a lid on any development. High pressure building in from the east will keep winds in check, however, a rouge gust from 18 to 20 kts could be possible during the afternoon.
1010 PM EDT Tue Jun 7 2022 High pressure will linger through tonight. A trough of low pressure will develop inland tomorrow ahead of an approaching cold front. Lows feature upper 60s inland to the low/mid 70s along the coast.
Plenty of moisture to work with this afternoon with dewpoints hanging in the lower-mid 50s. A cold front will push across the plains and into the Denver area late this evening. Coverage in thunderstorms will decrease with more increasing stability in the lower levels. Wednesday evening and night, Colorado will be under a building ridge with decreasing northwesterly flow aloft. Partly to mostly cloudy skies overnight with low temperatures in the 50s across the plains and 40s in the high country.
/issued 156 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night): A mid-level ridge of high pressure maintains above normal temperatures and dry conditions across Deep South Texas through mid-week.
640 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 (This evening through Wednesday) A mid-level trough is currently observed via water vapor loop over eastern Wyoming. The associated dynamic lift and upslope flow will generate thunderstorms over the high plains this afternoon/evening. The aforementioned trough will drive a cold front into our area tomorrow with highs a few degrees cooler than today.
738 PM EDT Tue Jun 7 2022 A stubborn upper level low over northern Ontario continued to influence our weather today.
Then another round of precipitation is expected to move right across the area from mid morning through mid/late afternoon, as low pressure tracks across the southern cwa or just south of the area. Have gone a bit cooler then previous forecast, generally in line with mos guidance, but overall confidence is low.
(Today and tonight) Somewhat complicated setup ongoing early this morning as several areas of convection continue, with one area across the panhandles and southwest KS tied to warm air advection along the nose of the low-level jet, and a second area across central/eastern KS associated with the cold front progressing southward. The most likely scenario will be for initially more isolated convection across western Oklahoma to increase in coverage as the cold front moves southward, with additional convection developing further eastward along the front as well into northern and central Oklahoma with time.
An upper level ridge that is centered over Texas and spreads across the Gulf Coast will continue to dominate the forecast over the next couple days. Heat continues to be the main focus of the short term forecast for the most part as MaxT's trend in the low to mid 90s. An upper level trough moving across the central U. S may start to erode the ridge over us through Thursday and into the weekend, which will bring an increase in rain chances.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): Mid-level ridging will continue to build over the region through the period.
The trough should be along a line from about Upper MI to eastern OK by 18Z Wednesday. A mid level ridge will then build east for Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning, but will then dampen out.
1117 PM EDT Tue Jun 7 2022 A cold front will push southeast through the region tonight. High pressure will briefly build into the area Wednesday, then low pressure approaching from the Ohio Valley will lift across the state Wednesday night.
Upper ridging is still maintained across north MX and TX with west-northwest flow aloft. Additionally, surface cold front will move through the region later in the day bringing in some drier air across the norther portion of the CWA by early Thursday. A surface cold front will sweep through the area this evening bringing in drier air.
Convection in the northern Texas Panhandle into southwestern Kansas will give a cold front a bonus boost this morning and is expected to push through the FA later this morning. Overall forcing will be weak with an upper ridge in close proximity to the area. Otherwise, the cold front will keep low level moisture levels high and temperatures on the cool side of seasonal averages. Precipitation chances tomorrow continue to dwindle as warm mid- level temperatures of ~14-15C at H70 and ~27-28C at H85 provide a formidable blockade for convection moving off the higher terrain in eastern New Mexico to overcome and move into our area.
The combination of a building upper level ridge and a strong low level thermal ridge will bring hot temperatures to our area again this afternoon and early evening. The only exception will be slightly cooler temperatures across the Big Country.
139 AM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022 A cold front will push southeast through the region tonight. High pressure will briefly build into the area Wednesday, then low pressure approaching from the Ohio Valley will lift across the state Wednesday night.
This will help to keep temperatures from dropping off much further once the clouds do fill back in with lows only expected to reach the lower to mid 70s.
231 AM MDT Wed Jun 8 2022 Synoptic Setup: A closed low sets over northern Ontario. Hot High pressure sets over the Desert Southwest with a weak ridge spurring north from it through central Montana and Alberta. To the west, a closed low lies off the coast British Columbia. Periodically the ridge spur weakens, allowing limited disturbances to tear off of the coastal BC low and pass through ridge over northeast Montana. This generates weak lift zones for afternoon mountain thunderstorms to latch onto and move across the high plains. Today: While the day starts off partly cloud the ridge to the west will bring increasing mid to high chinook arch clouds to the region.
355 AM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022 A break in the rain today as weak high pressure slides across the region. Rain returns this evening and overnight with crossing low pressure. Weak high pressure will keep most of the daylight hours quiet. An isolated storm may sneak into the far southern ridges late this afternoon. Increased sunshine will also allow for warmer temperatures. Drier air will begin to overspread the region on Thursday as a trough will setup over much of the east. Thursday will see more cloud cover as cooler air spreads across the region.
A strong ridge of high pressure will build over the area through the week leading to much warmer weather. The hottest temperatures yet this season are in store late this week and Heat Warnings are in effect for the lower elevations.
High pressure builds in from the west keeping conditions dry and warm over most of the weekend.
An upper level ridge of high pressure centered over central and southern portions of Texas will continue to nose eastward across the north central Gulf Coast region and adjacent northern Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday afternoon. The bulk of short range guidance that is available as of this writing continues to keep the majority of our forecast area under the influence of subsidence associated with the upper level ridge axis that will extend eastward across central and southern portions of the CWA through Wednesday afternoon. Northwest flow aloft takes hold over most of the area during this time as the upper ridge axis retrogrades westward. Hot and humid conditions otherwise continue through Thursday with highs continuing to range in the lower to mid 90s inland and around 90 closer to the coast.
Trough aiding in maintenance of this area of storms was moving into SW MN/NW IA and will progress east reaching the forecast area this afternoon and evening. Despite the lower moisture values, warm cloud layer will be pushing 10000 ft across a good chunk of the area as the precip arrives. The other change is more model signals of nose of warm sector possible sneaking into far SE counties (roughly Marion to Bluffton to north of Lima line and points south) with SBCAPE of 500 J/KG or possibly a bit more along with decent low level shear given proximity of the warm front. Flow will become even more active through the first half or so of the period as Hudson Bay upper low digs south closer to the region with several waves impacting the area.
1258 AM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022 High pressure will linger through tonight. A trough of low pressure will develop inland tomorrow ahead of an approaching cold front.
Persistent upper low over Hudson Bay will continue to bring cool and fairly quiet weather this week.
Models then show a cold front moving through our region from 18z-02z as an upper low moves from Arkansas into west Tennessee. Winds will remain northerly through the day Thursday, turning south Thursday night as the center of the high moves east of our region.
High temperatures for this afternoon will reach into the lower 90s over inland areas and in the upper 80s along the coastline. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the lower 70s tonight over inland areas and in the mid 70s for coastal areas. Prevailing flow will continue to move through from out of the west through midweek as high pressure remains situated near Texas and Louisiana, with chances for showers and storms becoming more widespread late Wednesday and into Thursday as short waves moving ahead of an advancing frontal boundary from out of the north along with increased PWAT with pockets measuring in excess of 2 inches by Thursday evening. Overnight low temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday will drop down into the lower 70s for inland areas.
have adjusted pops/wx grids based on the mentioned above and also adjusted QPF for tonight with the higher amounts in Northeast Oklahoma.
Highs will be in the low to mid 70s. More weak energy crosses the area Thursday, pushing a weak cold front across the region, with the higher PWAT's continuing to spread E.
This trough axis swings across the local area this evening before shifting farther east overnight. Attendant weak low pressure currently over the southern plains/Ozarks will trek east through the mid-MS Valley into the Ohio Valley today -- ultimately resulting in increased shower chances across parts of the forecast area this afternoon. Will focus the highest pops this afternoon and evening along/south of M-72, gradually tapering with northward extent to the Tip of the Mitt. Cooler readings expected near and west of TVC with earlier cloud cover/rain arrival and along the immediate lakeshores. The long wave trough seemingly anchored across southeast Canada stays put for yet another couple of days.
A weak cold front will settle into the Midsouth Wednesday evening, bringing less humid air for Thursday.
A cold front will move through the state Wednesday afternoon and high pressure will build in behind it during the evening.
KRS Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 69 85 62 84 / 70 60 10 0 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 69 82 60 83 / 70 80 10 0 40 Oak Ridge, TN 84 67 82 59 82 / 70 80 10 0 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 66 79 55 81 / 70 90 10 0 30.
A weak cold frontal boundary will also arrive this afternoon, and provide another focal point for shower development, including scattered convection over northern WI. Models show CAPE increasing to 200-600 j/kg in the afternoon, with the highest values over central and east central WI. Highs today will be in the lower to middle 70s north, and 60s to around 70 south and east.
110 AM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022 A stubborn upper level low over northern Ontario continued to influence our weather today.