Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Persistent high pressure has been over the west coast states for the past week, resulting in dry weather with afternoon temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above normal for much of the region.
(Rest of Today) A cold front continues to move southward across this morning, with high clouds streaming through the area. Frontal passage should clear the TN Valley by the late morning/early afternoon hours and high pressure will being to build into the region in its wake. Despite the cold front and cloud cover, temps have already risen into the mid to upper 60s, so afternoon highs should have no problem rising into the lower 80s.
536 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Key messages: - The first freezing conditions of the season are likely for areas north of the Missouri River. Discussion: Cold front has moved through the area overnight and CAA is allowing temperatures to drop off into the 40s this morning. This will allow temperatures to bottom out in the low to mid 30s. The first freezing conditions of the season are expected across northern Missouri with frost expected along the Missouri River and points south. High pressure will remain in control over the area on Saturday. Weak mixing will temperatures below normal with highs in the low to mid 60. High pressure will shift south of the area Saturday night with westerly flow developing. This will be enough to keep temperatures above freezing in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
620 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 (Today and tonight) At the upper levels, a broad trough will continue to dig in across the eastern US, while a closed upper low remains in place over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, the weak frontal boundary that stalled across the area yesterday is fizzling out, while another cold front is moving southward into Oklahoma at this time.
620 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 (Today through Saturday Night ) High pressure and northwest flow aloft will give way to calm and dry conditions through the short term. Forecast high temperatures are expected to be in the lower 70s to mid 80 across the state for your Friday before dropping into the mid 60s to mid 70s for your Saturday.
This is a response to a building weak, elongated of high pressure extending from the Mid-Atlantic southwestward to the Gulf Coast. The 1-3 km northeasterly steering flow direction will favor cloud streamers forming along portions of the Lower Keys again this afternoon, but this evolution will battle the freshened flow and associated mixing of substantial dry air near the capping inversion.
706 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 High pressure remains over Devils Lake region. Cloudy areas overnight saw temps stay above freezing. High pressure at 07z over Devils Lake. High pressure to our southeast tonight so looks to be not as cool except for west central MN where it will be clear and winds lightest and they will likely drop colder early Saturday morning than they will be this morning with lows by Sat AM around 32 Fergus Falls/Wadena areas. Look for warmer temps with highs into the 60s most areas along with a west wind 10 to 15 mph.
636 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 (Today) Cold front currently located near a Shamrock, Bixby line, extending into far northwest Arkansas. Significantly cooler conditions are expected behind the front today with high temperatures only in the lower to mid 70s across NE OK/NW AR. Although temperatures will be cooler, at least a limited fire danger threat will continue behind the front with gusty north winds at 15 to 20 mph. Gusty north winds will also likely begin to increase across aforementioned area by mid to late afternoon with the stronger push of cooler air.
High pressure remains the dominant weather pattern for the next several days. High pressure continues to maintain its grip over northern/central Nevada into the weekend.
658 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Active weather remains on track for today as a short wave trough moves through the region. Boundary layer temperatures remain warm across the region and while a few locations in the central Sandhills may hit the freezing mark, precipitation will be coming to an end by then keeping the rain/snow potential limited and/or non-existent. Expect much of the region to see frost Friday night as temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s. Therefore, due to the high certainty of frost/freeze occurring, have issued headlines for all of north central and western Nebraska.
A ridge of high pressure builds over the West Coast today, as a weak upper-level wobbles over the northern-half of the Gulf of California. With the low in place, residual monsoonal moisture is advected into Arizona, resulting in another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms again today.
Without too much cloud cover today temperatures will warm nicely given the cooler environment and winds will remain light, so a nice crisp, cool early fall day. Highs generally in the lower and middle 50s. With little wind and cloud cover temperatures should drop quickly this evening, then potentially level off or recover a touch through the night as high pressure drops southeast. The best chance for leveling or slightly rising temperatures will be in central SD and near and east of the Buffalo Ridge where the southwest flow should be strongest before sunrise. Overall most locations should fall into the 20s with lower 30s in central SD and near and east of the Buffalo Ridge.
A low pressure system will linger over northwest Mexico and southern Arizona with a chance of showers and thunderstorms through this weekend. This mornings water vapor imagery showed a closed upper level low over northern Gulf of California south of Rocky Point.
Across the rest of the area, a cold front was moving across early this morning. Thus can't rule out a chance of showers and a few storms by mid to late aftn over the higher terrain, Meanwhile, not sure about high temps across nern CO. For now have kept highs in the upper 40's to mid 50's, however, they may need to be adjusted lower later this morning if the lower clouds stay in place. A weak upper low will be positioned over Baja California on Saturday and is expected to slowly weaken while remaining stationary.
653 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 (Today through Saturday) Main part of the forecast is the cold front moving towards the area during the day today and into the forecast area this evening and into the overnight hours.
Another quiet weather day as the dry high pressure remains the dominant feature in the region. A few clouds are expected this afternoon with high temperatures reaching into the lower 80s along the coast and the middle 80s elsewhere. The high pressure centered over the area will continue to drive east and northeast winds of 15 knots or less through Saturday with seas 2 feet or less.
1005 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 A strong, but moisture-starved cold front will cross the region tonight. Canadian high pressure will follow and extend from the mid MS Valley to the mid-Atlantic through the weekend. The pre-frontal trough in place over western NC Friday morning will migrate eastward ahead of the attendant strong but moisture starved cold front that will move into the area during the evening and overnight hours. Otherwise, it will remain dry with strong post-frontal cold dry air advection during the second half of the night and into Saturday as Canadian high pressure builds into the area. Cold air advection will be in full force behind a departing cold front Saturday morning.
Northerly winds were found across the area this morning as high pressure moved into the area. Temperatures ranged from the upper 40s in the south to the low 40s in the north. High pressure expected today. Discussion: High pressure will continue to affect the area today. As far as the freeze goes, looks like most of the area will see temps at or below freezing tonight. Regardless, with the track of the high looks like tonight is our first real chance to see widespread freezing temperatures. Urban areas may stay at or just above freezing. Cannot guarantee that urban areas wont see freezing temps.
916 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Shower chances return today with much cooler temperatures through the weekend. Isolated to scattered light showers and sprinkles may accompany a cold front the will cross the region today.
1033 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 A cold front was moving southeast into middle TN and eastern Kentucky this morning. (Today and tonight) Key Message: Cold front will move through the area today, leading to lower temperatures and dew points. The incoming system is a weak trough moving through the Great Lakes region over the weekend, and dragging along a weak front through the eastern United States. Cooler air from the northwest will begin to flow into the region behind the front and we should return to mostly sunny skies by Saturday.
504 AM MDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Stout upper ridge remained parked over the western CONUS with a deep upper trough over the Great Lakes and Midwest.
High pressure remains over the west coast bringing above normal temperatures inland and fog and low clouds at the coast.
728 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 (Today and tonight) Key Message: Cold front will move through the area today, leading to lower temperatures and dew points. The incoming system is a weak trough moving through the Great Lakes region over the weekend, and dragging along a weak front through the eastern United States. Cooler air from the northwest will begin to flow into the region behind the front and we should return to mostly sunny skies by Saturday.
Sunny and warm again today under the persistent upper ridge over the western US. A weak upper low within the ridge has caused some cloudiness in southern BC. Models take the low and the cloudiness southward through eastern Oregon tonight and Saturday.
The main question for tonight is whether or not winds will dissipate for a long enough period of time to allow temperatures to drop into the lower or middle 30s and more widespread frost to form.
With high pressure remaining quasi-stationary at the surface combined with broad upper level troughing forecast to be re-enforced across the eastern conus today through tonight, fair weather is expected to continue. Temperatures overnight will still be cool, but are forecast to be slightly warmer than previous nights with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s areawide. A cold front will move through Saturday bringing increasing north and northeast winds to area waters with cautionary levels possible.
Latest visible loop shows diurnal cu covering much of the Lower Peninsula this afternoon. Usually with north winds and high pressure moving in, the diurnal cu will scatter out during the evening leaving mostly clear skies. This situation is a little bit different because the high is over the Plains and moving southeast. There's likely enough time for skies to clear and wind to decouple for frost and freezing temperatures to occur. The pressure gradient will also begin to tighten as the high moves southeast and the next front moves toward the state.
Active weather remains on track for today as a short wave trough moves through the region. Boundary layer temperatures remain warm across the region and while a few locations in the central Sandhills may hit the freezing mark, precipitation will be coming to an end by then keeping the rain/snow potential limited and/or non-existent. Expect much of the region to see frost Friday night as temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s. Therefore, due to the high certainty of frost/freeze occurring, have issued headlines for all of north central and western Nebraska.
The upper ridge continues to stretch west-southwestward over the Bahamas, across southern Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. On the surface, broad high pressure stretches from the mid-Atlantic states southwestward to the northwest Gulf of Mexico.
238 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 With the dry cold front expected to move over our area later tonight, broad isentrophic ascent will help maintain some mid-high level cloudiness as we head into the overnight period. By Saturday morning, the cold front is forecasted to push south out of our area leaving behind a drier and cooler airmass. This airmass will allow for afternoon temperatures to be roughly ten degrees cooler then the previous day and peak around the upper 70s with areas south of I-20 reaching the low 80s.
Clear skies and calm winds overnight will lead to substantial radiational cooling with widespread lows in the low to mid 30s. Expanded the Frost Advisory to include valley locations as well, since temperatures may drop below freezing. Quiet weather is expected this weekend as the main upper-level trough axis pushes further off to the east, leaving the region in drier, northwesterly flow. As the trough moves east, this will allow slightly warmer 700 mb air to filter in. Temperatures on Saturday are expected to be about 10 degrees warmer than today, so high temperatures will be in the 60s across the CWA.
1018 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Surface observations and radar velocity data indicate the long- advertised cold front has passed CKV and continues quickly southeastward. Cannot rule out a touch of frost in our far north around sunrise but dewpoints look to remain above freezing which will keep frost potential north of the border.
Will issue Freeze Warnings for southern counties along the NE border for tonight where conditions are most likely to dip below freezing. Upper ridge builds in the west over the next few days bringing northwest flow and dry and mild conditions over the region. Ridge breaks down as a more progressive pattern develops with a deep trough and cold front moving through the region mid-week.
135 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 A strong, but moisture-starved cold front will cross the region tonight. Canadian high pressure will follow and extend from the mid MS Valley to the mid-Atlantic through the weekend. The pre-frontal trough in place over western NC Friday morning will migrate eastward ahead of the attendant strong but moisture starved cold front that will move into the area during the evening and overnight hours. Otherwise, it will remain dry with strong post-frontal cold dry air advection during the second half of the night and into Saturday as Canadian high pressure builds into the area. Cold air advection will be in full force behind a departing cold front Saturday morning.
(This evening through Saturday) A persistent, quasi-stationary upper low centered over the Sea of Cortez will continue to feed deep moisture eastward across the forecast area from southwestern New Mexico. Cloud cover is likely to keep temperatures in check tomorrow, although with the warmer start will again forsake the low end of MOS guidance and trend toward the warmer MAV/MOS and blend init.
Plattsmouth is currently 15 degrees cooler than it was just 24 hours ago. Cooler air continues to ride in on northerly winds of about 5-15 knots this afternoon. The 850mb freezing line has slouched south past Omaha and we continue to lose about 1C an hour this afternoon. After a later than normal final frost this spring (April 24) and a slightly earlier than normal first freeze (October 8), Omaha would have a notably shorter "growing season" than normal if freezing temps materialize at Eppley tonight.
(This evening through Saturday) Much cooler conditions are in place behind the cold front this afternoon, with some areas under clouds and precipitation still sitting in the mid to upper 50s currently, 20-30 degrees cooler than this time yesterday. This translates to highs in the low to mid 50s for portions of western Oklahoma, with 60s across much of the rest of the area and low 70s across far southern portions of Oklahoma and western north Texas.
Meanwhile, a cold front remains just north of the Red River at the time of this writing, with observation sites reporting temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s across Southern Oklahoma. As the front progresses south this afternoon, northerly wind speeds will increase to near 10 mph, but the cooler air will remain to our north. Saturday will feature cooler temperatures across North Texas with highs in the mid to upper 70s along and north of the I-20 corridor. Unfortunately for those in Central Texas, high temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than today, but remain in the 80s. A blocking high will remain parked along the West Coast throughout the upcoming week, with troughing dominating the eastern half of the CONUS.
As a result of continued cloud cover and upslope cooler northeast winds, temperatures will struggle into the 50s this afternoon for much of the CWA with overnight lows down into the upper 30s to low 40s north to south.
The lower conditions will spread back inland Friday evening with higher terrain becoming obscured once again. The lower conditions will persist into Saturday morning. The lower conditions will return Friday night with higher terrain becoming obscured, persisting into Saturday morning. A thermal trough will develop Friday into Saturday.
Winds become calm to light northerly this evening before northerly winds increase to 8-12 knots by early Saturday morning following the passage of a cold front. A dry cold front moves across the area tonight into Saturday morning, ushering in drier and cooler weather. Temperatures today top out in the middle 80's for most locations, with Saturday's highs much cooler in the middle to upper 70's inland and lower to middle 80's near the coast. Tonight may be a bit warmer owing to increased mid to upper level cloud cover with lows dipping into the middle to upper 50's inland and lower 60's nearer the coast.
212 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Dry and seasonably warm weather with highs in the middle 80s today will give way to a dry cold front crossing the region tonight.
Unlike the past two days, cloud streamers were unable to form along portions of the Lower Keys as a result of this drier air and freshened steering flow.
After a clear and seasonably cool night with widespread 30s, highs will rebound to around 70 Saturday afternoon as a ridge builds in.
1241 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Much colder air settles in behind a cold front with highs only in the 50s today and Saturday. Potent sw wrapping up across se ON in tandem with deepening cyclonic flow across the lakes and burgeoning low level thermal troughing already inducing a vigorous lake response off the ern WI shoreline. Low level flow rapidly weakens/backs tonight before as thermal trough collapses thus expect lake based showers will decay quickly through this evening close to the lake.
This area of high pressure will usher in stronger northeasterly surface flow and dew points in the lower 50s (and upper 40s) that reinforce pleasant outdoor conditions (and subsequent minimum temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s). This drier and cooler air mass will allow maximum temperatures by tomorrow afternoon to only reach the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Cold front passage occurs later today, but will be moisture starved so no rainfall expected. Some guidance does try to spit out a hundredth or two of QPF in some of the higher terrain of southwest Virginia and the east TN mountains, but this seems optimistic to say the least. Dry and cooler through the weekend, with frost potential Saturday night, followed by a warming trend.
224 PM MDT Fri Oct 7 2022 A broad ridge of high pressure will continue to bring mild and dry conditions through the weekend.
1242 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Dry and seasonably warm weather with highs in the middle 80s today will give way to a dry cold front crossing the region tonight.
(This afternoon through Saturday Night) Cold front continues moving across the midstate this afternoon, and while difficult to discern on surface obs and radar, appears to be roughly from Linden to Murfreesboro to Livingston. Much cooler and drier air along with gusty north winds are moving in behind the front, and lows are expected to drop significantly from today's highs and reach the upper 30s to mid 40s by sunrise Saturday morning. Frost is not expected in our area tonight due to surface winds staying up and dewpoints remaining above freezing, but cannot rule out some isolated frost near the KY border.
This, as a weak cold front moves into the Big Country this afternoon and early evening, before dissipating, as moves south to a San Angelo to Brownwood line early Saturday morning. Highs farther south will be the lower to mid 80s.
145 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 A strong, but moisture-starved cold front will cross the region tonight. Canadian high pressure will follow and extend from the mid MS Valley to the mid-Atlantic through the weekend. The pre-frontal trough in place over western NC Friday morning will migrate eastward ahead of the attendant strong but moisture starved cold front that will move into the area during the evening and overnight hours. Otherwise, it will remain dry with strong post-frontal cold dry air advection during the second half of the night and into Saturday as Canadian high pressure builds into the area. Cold air advection will be in full force behind a departing cold front Saturday morning.
1142 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 (Rest of Today) A cold front continues to move southward across this morning, with high clouds streaming through the area. Frontal passage should clear the TN Valley by the late morning/early afternoon hours and high pressure will being to build into the region in its wake. Despite the cold front and cloud cover, temps have already risen into the mid to upper 60s, so afternoon highs should have no problem rising into the lower 80s.
High pressure remains in control with above normal temps, light winds and precip free conditions. Overnight lows will continue to run on the warmer side of normal as well.
Not much to discuss once again, as weather remains quiet in light of prolonged ridging over the region. Some high clouds can be seen on satellite imagery this morning in light of a weak wave riding over the top of the ridge axis, but otherwise largely expecting a persistence forecast for today.
1216 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 KEY MESSAGES: - Freezing or near temperatures for much of the area this morning and again Saturday morning. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler (upper 40s) than yesterday as the cold high pressure directly overhead. As is often the case, the core of the Twin Cities Metro is the only place that may not see freezing temps thanks to the urban heat island.
1215 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 (Today through Saturday Night ) High pressure and northwest flow aloft will give way to calm and dry conditions through the short term. Forecast high temperatures are expected to be in the lower 70s to mid 80 across the state for your Friday before dropping into the mid 60s to mid 70s for your Saturday.
This will bring slightly warmer temperatures than that of last night with lows in the 60s to lower 70s. An upper level trough digging in over the Great Lakes Region is expected to drape a weak cold front across our area late tonight through early Saturday morning. This dry FROPA will bring breezy northeasterly flow across the region on Saturday with skies clearing out as high pressure builds overhead at 850mb. This northeasterly flow will usher in cooler, drier, continental air, which should bring temperatures down by a degree or so.
220 PM MDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Sun will soon reign supreme over south-central MT as the last lingering remnants of the low stratus from this morning will fully dissipate by 1 PM. Main weather of concern is a small chance for fog to develop in the lower valleys of far SE montana where dewpoint depressions will near zero.
High pressure is firmly located over Minnesota. Meanwhile an area of low pressure will cross Hudson Bay causing the pressure gradient to increase and thus a response in the wind field giving breezy westerly winds tonight into Saturday. Clouds have been a little slow to clear today, so kept temperatures a bit warmer, but latest satellite trends suggest that that may have been the wrong decision as the cloud field is quickly eroding from west to east.
(This afternoon through Saturday) The cold front is near the I-20 corridor but hardly noticeable other than a slight breeze. This will drop relative humidity back down into the 25 to 30 percent range tomorrow afternoon with highs stuck in the 70s for most areas except our southeast which may reach the lower 80s. 86/Martin Saturday night will see northwest flow with cooler and drier air advecting into the state.