Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The short wave trough rolling in from OH will continue to aid in destabilization and might steepen the lapse rates aloft. Storms will be more isolated Monday with weak ridging over the area.
1235 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016 Scattered SHRA continues across most of AR early this afternoon as the center of low pressure spins over SWRN AR. This low pressure will continue to meander across the state through Mon afternoon.
The short wave trough rolling in from OH will continue to aid in destabilization and might steepen the lapse rates aloft.
High pressure will bring hotter temperatures and fewer thunderstorms to start the week. As high pressure shifts off to the east, deeper moisture will return along with an increasing chance of thunderstorms the second half of the week. A drier and warmer airmass aloft was limiting the coverage of showers and thunderstorms across southeast Arizona today.
1227 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016 Main challenge will be subtle chance for isolated convection late this afternoon across the higher terrain of central Kansas near KRSL and KGBD. Some mid-level moistening has occurred just northwest of the forecast area early this morning which is progged to develop south into a portion of central and southwest Kansas today within a weak thermal trof most evident around 700 mb. The remnants from the low pressure and tropical rainfall which has drenched Louisiana the past couple days will migrate northward from the Arklatex region across the Ozarks later today and tonight before shearing to the east-northeast ahead of the emerging upper trof from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains during Monday.
138 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016 Cold front oscillating across western Ohio, as high pressure lingers off East Coast. Have highs topping out in the upper 80s to around 90 today and tomorrow across the lowlands. Persistent ridge of high pressure keeping the more active weather to our west though still maintaining an oppressive heat/humidity combo over the CWA.
352 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016 At 3 PM, a trough of low pressure extended from Green Bay to the Quad Cities. The combination of temperatures in the lower 80s and dew points in the lower and mid 60s resulted in surface-based CAPES of around 1000 J/kg. 5C/km, and weak surface moisture convergence resulted in the development of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along and ahead of this trough. With high pressure nearly over head, the light winds (5 knots or less) will extend from the surface to 600 mb.
The additional clouds will help keep overnight temperatures in the low 50s while high temperatures cool a few degrees the next couple days.
117 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016 Cold front located near lake erie will continue to move slowly southeast through the day before stalling over southern Ohio.
328 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016 Large area of high pressure continues to build into the Northern Plains and the Northern Great Lakes region this afternoon. Monday will be a bit warmer.
A weak trough will move across parts of the upper midwest this afternoon and may be strong enough for a few showers or an isolated thunderstorm to develop. expect temps to warm into the mid 80s and a lake breeze is expected to develop which will keep the lakeshore areas a few degrees cooler.
Am going to be conservative here with the TAF forecast with the continued expected persistence of the surface/aloft bermuda high pressure pattern influences across the majority of the mid state region. With little movement of sfc front positioned west of mid state along with ring of moisture around periphery of Bermuda high pressure influences mentioned above expected, TAFs will be limited to two lines only at this point.
154 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016 A cold front will pass south of our region tonight, bringing an end to the shower activity.
1259 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016 Showers and thunderstorms over eastern Lincoln and Frontier counties slowly dissipating early this morning as 500mb trough moves east of the forecast area.
206 PM PDT SUN AUG 14 2016 Current satellite imagery shows an area of cirrus moving over the forecast area, signifying the leading edge of the short wave trough that will pass overhead later today. It is this trough that is expected to trigger thunderstorms over western Siskiyou county, the Cascades, and portions of the East Side this afternoon and evening.
A weak mid-level inverted trough moving across the eastern Gulf will help to enhance convection late afternoon/evening compared to coverage yesterday. The main focus for the higher PoPs is across the eastern part of the CWA, near VLD. This enhancement is clearly shown by the hi-res models and given the good agreement, have tended on the higher side of most guidance for PoPs for the first half of tonight. With the mid-level inverted trough shifting west tonight, this in addition to the loss of daytime heating should decrease PoPs significantly for the second half of the night. Lows will mainly be in the mid 70s tonight except for parts of SE Alabama that may drop into the lower 70s.
639 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016 Large area of high pressure continues to build into the Northern Plains and the Northern Great Lakes region this afternoon. Monday will be a bit warmer.
This low level moisture convergence field sets up between Dickinson and Bowman. Per latest operational and experimental HRRR composite reflectivity forecast, expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms initiating between Hettinger to Bismarck and south to Selfridge between 21z Sunday and 00z Monday.
650 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016 Low pressure along the coast will move east into the Maritimes tonight.
/issued 1100 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016/ Water vapor imagery shows the upper level low over Arkansas this morning. with the surface reflection of the low nearly over Texarkana this morning. Plenty of dry air is entraining on the back side of this low. This upper level low will accelerate northward and become absorbed into the longwave trough by tonight.
This trough will ride around the periphery of the Atlantic ridge.
330 PM MDT SUN AUG 14 2016 A ridge of high pressure over the Great Basin will slowly shift east on Monday as a weak area of low pressure pushes east over the area. High pressure will slowly push east of the area through the middle of the week.
This low level moisture convergence field sets up between Dickinson and Bowman. Upper level flow becomes more west-northwest over the Northern Plains with some embedded short wave troughs that will begin to impact our area later today.
519 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016 Cloud cover today should decrease overnight as drier air filters into the mid-levels as the ridge builds into the area.
402 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016 Cold front oscillating across western Ohio, as high pressure lingers off East Coast. Have highs topping out in the upper 80s to around 90 today and tomorrow across the lowlands.
/issued 1055 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016/ Notable decrease in coverage, organization, and intensity of rainfall this morning as the low pressure system continues to weaken and lift out to the north. /issued 548 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016/ Heaviest rains are continuing across the lower Acadiana area this morning with showers also noted elsewhere in southern Louisiana and southeast Texas.
207 PM PDT SUN AUG 14 2016 High pressure will remain in control through the middle of the week, keeping conditions dry with temperatures well above average. Temperatures will lower slightly by the end of the week as the high pressure area weakens. Upper Ridge along a east to west axis across Southern and Central CA will gradually break down over the upcoming week.
/Issued 1104 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016/ Latest surface analysis indicates low pressure centered near the ArkLaTex and this morning's upper air analyses suggest that the low is vertically stacked through 700 mb. Areas of rain to the north of the low have been scattered across nwrn AR and far ern OK since earlier this morning and more is poised to move into the area early this afternoon. To the west of the dense cloudiness, more insolation is expected but temperatures will still be about a category cooler than yesterday's high temperatures due to more mid/high cloudiness over the region today.
232 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016 A pressure ridge will extend into the forecast area from the Atlantic through the middle of the week. The ridge will weaken late this week allowing increasing moisture and chances of showers and thunderstorms back into the region. This afternoon: High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to ridge into the forecast area from the east. Upper low remains across the northeastern Gulf.
255 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016 A very nice evening across the 4 state region as high pressure gradually shifts east. Temperatures this evening will settle back into the lower 70s around sunset with dew points in the 50s. Ahead of this wave the low and mid level winds will turn to a more southwesterly direction which will advect warmer and more moist air into central South Dakota. Highs should mainly average the lower 80s in southwest Minnesota to the lower 90s in south central SD.
A deamplifying trof was over the Great Lakes and heading E. The trof that currently extends from CO-NM will creep E into the Cntrl/Srn Plains. A weak low will emerge from the leeside trof into SD tonight and remain there thru tomorrow. It will drag the lee trof into Wrn Neb. Today: Substantial high clouds ahead of the CO-NM trof will keep skies m/sunny to p/cldy. Deep mixing over the High Plains to the W will result in a few very isolated tstms. Tonight: The clouds associated with the CO-NM trof will depart to the E as the trof axis approaches.
352 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016 (Tonight and Monday) Scattered showers continue this afternoon across the southeastern forecast area along the remnants of a cold front. Low level moisture return will also result in increased cloud cover and continued cooler temperatures Monday, as well. Rain and cooler temperatures expected this week.
209 PM EDT Sun Aug 14 2016 High pressure remains over the western Atlantic through the weekend.
402 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016 Low pressure along the coast will move east into the Maritimes tonight.
318 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016 Forecast area continues to be sandwiched between upper trof to the north and stream of moisture moving from south to northeast. Mid to high clouds and small impulses of energy lifting toward the area from the southwest as base of larger scale upper trof moves slowly eastward. Sunshine today and slightly warmer air aloft has boosted highs into the upper 80s, mitigated in part by dewpoints in the upper 50s to near 60. Lows fall into the middle to lower 60s tonight, followed by a rise back into the 80s tomorrow with some western counties near 90 as warmer temperatures advect in aloft over Central Kansas.
145 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016 Water vapor imagery shows a nice tropical fetch of moisture from the Tx Gulf Coast, northeastward into the lower Ohio river valley. Over the ensuing 24-48 hours, we'll see waves of low pressure eject and ride along the nearly stationary surface frontal boundary that extends across SEMO/SRN IL/SWIN, where our current FFA resides.
305 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016 Water vapor imagery continues to show the upper level low lifting north over Arkansas this afternoon. with the surface reflection of the low still over Texarkana area. This upper level low will accelerate northward and become absorbed into the longwave trough by tonight. the longwave trough barely moves over the next several days due to a blocking high over the southeast. migrating ever so slightly throughout the week with the position of the longwave trough.
255 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016 The cold frontal boundary and bulk of the rain remains well off to the northwest this afternoon. To our southeast, a ridge is strengthening and pushing in higher heights into Eastern Kentucky. The muggy and hot weather will continue through the short term period with afternoon highs hitting the upper 80s tomorrow, with morning lows only dipping into the low 70s.
Showers continue to drift eastward and will exit the ridges by 7pm.
328 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016 A ridge of high pressure will continue to dictate the weather throughout the forecast period. Starting the second half of the weekend, the ridge will start the deamplify and break down across the south central U.
203 PM MDT TUE JUL 19 2016 large high pressure ridge will dominate the weather in the period, bringing hot weather to the region. The fa will remain on the edge of the ridge with perturbed sw flow continuing on the nw side of the ridge, perhaps supporting a shra/ts over far nw sd wed,as one of these impulse advects through the region. Thermal ridge will time over the fa wed, supporting very warm temps under clear skies and deep mixing.
Upper level high pressure dome will build southward today resulting in isolated convection across the northern half of the Lake Charles County Warning Area. Late night sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the sern CONUS maintaining a light and variable low-level flow over the forecast area ATTM. Water vapor imagery shows ridging aloft across the cntl CONUS with the ridge axis in place from TX through the Plains States.
With temps, the subsidence will bring temps a bit above seasonal, with lows in the low to mid 70s expected, and highs in the low to mid 90s.
Generally hot and dry weather can be expected through the short term with high pressure dominating.
The rest of the forecast area will have the higher clouds from the convection to the west, but for the most part they should be thin enough to allow for ample sunshine/heating into the upper 80s.
322 PM MDT TUE JUL 19 2016 Tonight the upper level ridge wl be centered over nern OK and should move little on Wed. This wl leave the forecast area of the west side of the upper ridge and wl allow the stream of mstr from the south to continue ovr wrn CO. Scattered showers/tstms can be expected to continue over and nr the higher terrain thru the evening hours, with probably some isold activity along the I-25 corridor, and little chance for pcpn ovr the far sern plains. High temps on Wed should generally be around normal in the high valleys, with readings in the 90's to lower 100's acrs the sern plains. Cooler by the Weekend.
415 PM MDT TUE JUL 19 2016 Early afternoon WV imagery and RAP upper level analysis show large scale ridge centered over the plains dominating the pattern across the US. Moist monsoonal plume is wrapping around the western extent of ridge into the Rockies. At the surface; low pressure is in place across eastern Colorado with a trough axis extending from northeast Colorado and across northern Kansas. Regarding temperatures/heat indices: Air mass aloft is only expected to become warmer and consensus shows highs 2-4F warmer than today.
Upper level high pressure builds over central U. Weak disturbances could drop southeast around ridge. despite the cooler 850 mb temperatures. surface heating causing temperatures to still leaked up into the mid and upper 80s for the lowlands this afternoon. Wednesday will have a bit cooler start at dawn. but forecasting maximum temperatures at or a degree or so warmer for late Wednesday afternoon. and cooler mountain valleys if clouds do not linger. High pressure. with warmer air aloft keeping atmosphere capped. and upper ridging builds eastward into the region.
We begin the period with a large area of high pressure centered just off to our west.
Detailing where the higher rain chances thus is problematic. Some weak frontogenetic forcing, but not a standout warm front. Weak ripples in the upper level flow, but not a sharper/strong trough. Going to follow the LLJ for more likely initiation region, then track that with the low level warm air advection/thermal gradient, for movement of higher rain chances. Trends would continue to push the higher pcpn chances eastward.
351 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016 Mid-level ridge will continue to dominate the weather through the end of this week with only isolated chances of showers/storms.
Do see a modest decrease in precipitable water values as somewhat drier mid-level air filters into the area as anticyclone continue to spin over the south plains. High pressure ridging across the southeast CONUS and adjacent gulf waters will maintain light east to southeast winds through the week.
Some convection being painted over western Colorado moving north and northeast on the western periphery of the upper level ridge being analyzed over central Oklahoma. Some indication of the upper level ridge building back to the west for Wednesday that would shift monsoonal flow further west.
147 PM MDT TUE JUL 19 2016 Early afternoon WV imagery and RAP upper level analysis show large scale ridge centered over the plains dominating the pattern across the US. Moist monsoonal plume is wrapping around the western extent of ridge into the Rockies. At the surface; low pressure is in place across eastern Colorado with a trough axis extending from northeast Colorado and across northern Kansas. Regarding temperatures/heat indices: Air mass aloft is only expected to become warmer and consensus shows highs 2-4F warmer than today.
307 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 High pressure over the Great Lakes will provide fair weather into tonight.
Water vapor imagery and model analysis reveal that the center of sprawling anticyclone is currently over eastern Oklahoma. Precipitation will be a minimum as ridge remains squarely in place.
With the low level jet developing across the plains tonight, should see some very warm lows tonight.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night):Fairly easy forecast for the next 48 hours, as weak wave that helped kick off isolated to scattered mainly inland showers today exits stage left, leaving the broad 500 mb ridge to dominate from the Central Plains to the Valley.
On Wednesday, the upper level ridge will begin to build in. We'll see slightly warmer readings on Wednesday with highs in the 89-94 range. Lows Wednesday night should cool back into the lower 70s.
330 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 High pressure over the Central Lakes will drift East and move off the East coast late Wednesday.
142 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 High pressure over the Great Lakes will build southeast across Pennsylvania through Wednesday, then off the Mid Atlantic coast by late week.
For Wed-Thu, conditions will remain hot as the anomalous upper ridge continues to influence our weather. Additionally, this ridge should begin to help limit storms and the focus each afternoon looks to be across our southern 1/3. For Fri-Sun, the upper ridge looks to loosen its grip a tad as mid level heights lower a bit. Additionally, various global guidance suggests there could be a few short waves round the ridge and slide into the CWA under that feature. More evidence of a mid level trough or TUTT looks to be near/over our region.
Upstream of this cutoff low, an omega block has set up across the northern Pacific Ocean, resulting in the stubborn upper-level ridge over the central CONUS. Expect this ridging to persist until this blocking pattern begins to break today later this week.
315 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 High pressure will build in from the west tonight and will settle offshore south of New England on Wednesday.
A hot subtropical high (500 mb heights +2 standard deviations above normal) has enveloped much of the Cntrl and Srn USA with trofs along the E and W Coasts. This trof will cont E and begin quashing the ridge Fri. The high will retrograde into the Desert SW with fairly zonal flow occurring over the Nrn USA. S winds 10-15 kts G20-25 kts as initial expansion of the boundary layer mixes into what remains of the low-lvl jet.
1129 AM MDT TUE JUL 19 2016 small update to add low pops for diurnal convection, mainly off the high terrain. Water vapor shows upper ridge amplifying through the nrn plains. low is centered over sern MT with trof extending sewd into scntrl SD. thermal ridge will build into our wrn zones with temps rising well into the 90s through the cwfa. Thermal ridge will be centered over wrn SD and should result in the hottest day of the week.
An upper level high will remain over the cntrl and srn plains with a continued influx of subtropical moisture in sw flow aloft affecting the area. Showers and tstms will redevelop over the higher terrain by late morning thru early aftn.
The convection should dissipate quickly after 00z, and do not expect as much coverage tomorrow morning as a strong upper level ridge continues to build in from the north and west.
/issued 256 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016/ The center of a mid/upper level ridge will remain nearly stationary through the end of the week.
313 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016 (Tonight and Wednesday) Upper level ridge to remain the dominant factor in West Central Texas through the next 24 hours and beyond.
Upper level high pressure builds over central U. Weak disturbances could drop southeast around ridge. despite the cooler 850 mb temperatures. surface heating causing temperatures to still leaked up into the mid and upper 80s for the lowlands this afternoon. Wednesday will have a bit cooler start at dawn. but forecasting maximum temperatures at or a degree or so warmer for late Wednesday afternoon. and cooler mountain valleys if clouds do not linger.
136 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 Aviation High pressure will bring fair weather today and tonight. The high moves east on Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms moving in during the day.
Mid morning temperatures in the lower 80s will continue to rise quickly today, especially across central SD.
As evident by the easterly flow strengthening and deepening over the area, the building ridge of high pressure over the Southern Plains will be helping to put a damper on POPS in these coming days.
1256 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016 High pressure ridge directly over area with lgt and vrbl winds thru period and vfr conditions to prevail and little if any brief periods of mvfr cigs or vsbys expected.
1230 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016 The primary weather concern this week continues to be the heat building into the region with a rather stout upper ridge taking control. With ridging aloft gripping the bulk of the forecast area, it'll be hard-pressed to get any precip for much of this week. That said, a large complex of thunderstorms currently tracking across central NE may very well clip northern MO as it rides along the ridge's periphery. The placement of the ridge's periphery is key in determining where storms will track.
308 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 * Updates to near- and short-term forecast portions only High pressure builds into the region through midweek with more comfortable, drier air.
Warm and dry conditions will continue through the rest of the week as high pressure builds over the Great Basin Region.
Temperatures may be slightly warmer, but this will depend on the timing of cloud cover developing.
/ISSUED 303 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016/ A broad ridge of high pressure was anchored from the central/ southern High Plains eastward all the way into the Deep South early this morning. Mid level heights near the center of the upper high will be pushing 600 decameters, as the high center remains anchored over Kansas/Oklahoma the remainder of the week. Water vapor satellite imagery does depict some moisture trapped within the ridge across the southeast half of the CWA today and we tend to call these types of upper highs a 'dirty ridge'.
1207 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016 18Z TAF Cycle Upper high will allow for VFR conditions at all three TAF sites through 18Z Wednesday. /Issued 325 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016/ Upper level analysis shows persistent upper ridge spinning over the Southern Plains. winds are generally 5-10kts from SSE with temperatures in the low to mid 70s. With upper ridge in place. models start sliding the high pressure westward which will help increase highs into more triple digit territory. some deamplification of the ridge is expected which will allow a few weak disturbances to move over the area.
The upper low remains off the Oregon/Washington coast with a southwest flow aloft over the area.
147 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 Cooler Canadian air will blow in via northwesterly winds today. Dry high pressure will build over the region tonight through Wednesday.
527 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 High pressure will build in from the west tonight and will settle offshore south of New England on Wednesday.