Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
With continuing breezy conditions out of the south to southwest providing ample warm air advection, areas in our western counties that see clearing earlier on will see highs in the low to mid 90s. With the upper low in western Kansas and the trough axis only really extending into northern portions of Texas, synoptic forcing will be minimal in our area with the dryline acting as the only forcing mechanism. A cold front will begin to work its way south into our northern counties by around midnight. As this pushes south through the later overnight hours, winds will quickly shift to the north behind the front allowing temperatures in the Big Country to cool into the lower 50s by daybreak.
434 AM PDT Mon May 2 2022 A low pressure system moving inland to the north will bring stronger onshore flow into tonight with stronger and gusty west winds for the mountains and deserts. High temperatures for the coast into the valleys will remain cooler today with night and morning coastal low clouds extending inland across most of the valleys.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): High pressure is expected to remain fully in control across Deep South Texas today into tomorrow. Low pressure deepens across the Plains, strengthening the pressure gradient along the lower Texas coast into this afternoon, increasing winds along the lower to mid RGV.
A warm front will lift north through the TN valley late tonight. Rain moves back in late tonight with northward advancing warm front. Discussion: Upper ridging will build into the region today in advance of the next disturbance moving through the central/southern plains. Highs should reach into the low 80s for many spots in the TN valley, and even the upper 70s to near 80 in the low elevations in southwest Virginia. Downstream, the cold front that pushed south of us yesterday, will lift back north as a warm front tonight. The GFS continues to be much quicker with the warm front lifting north this evening, and is also much more aggressive with precip coverage.
This low will track northeast through the Midwest tonight and move eastward through northern Ohio on Tuesday. Overnight lows will be mild as the clouds blanket the region, ranging from the lower 50s in central OH to near 60 in the southwestern CWA. The warmer air will be advected in from areas that are not expected to have any rainfall to cool it, particularly southeast of the I-71 corridor.
553 AM EDT Mon May 2 2022 A summer-like air mass and upper-level ridging dominates the weather during the work week.
The short term period features a quasi-zonal flow with a mid-level high developing over southern MX, which means modest ridging across South Texas.
Daytime high temperatures will range between 5 and 10 degrees above normal with highs between the mid 50s at the highest elevations to near 90 degrees across the Yavapai deserts. With forecast soundings indicating deep mixing up through ~620mb, there will be the potential to transfer some of this higher momentum down toward the surface. Fortunately, the probability of wind gusts exceeding 35-40 mph remains under 20% as mid-level ridging keeps most weather systems well north of the area. As we transition into the weekend and beyond, it appears that our mid-level ridge will begin to breakdown. While deterministic NWP does offer varying solutions for the timing of this trough, extended probabilistic guidance does point toward a return to the windy conditions.
If some clearing can occur late for areas west of the James River, sub-freezing temperatures are possible.
1250 PM EDT Mon May 2 2022 Seasonable temperatures are expected over the course of the week; thunderstorm chances increase tomorrow afternoon with crossing low pressure. Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected as high pressure transitions over the region. Moisture and warm advection will ramp up early Tuesday ahead of low pressure approaching from the west. Showers and elevated storms should develop by late morning/early afternoon with a warm front, followed by linear or multi-cellular sfc based convection later in the afternoon and early evening. The Storm Prediction Center has included eastern Ohio zones in their Day 2 Marginal Risk for storms ahead and/or along the cold front.
426 PM EDT Mon May 2 2022 Seasonable temperatures are expected over the course of the week; thunderstorm chances increase tomorrow with crossing low pressure. Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures will continue the overnight as high pressure builds over the region. Moisture and warm advection will ramp up early Tuesday ahead of low pressure approaching from the west. Showers and elevated storms should develop by late morning/early afternoon with a warm front. for storms ahead and/or along the cold front.
A warm front will lift northeast through the area but models are struggling with how much precip occurs, if any. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 86 64 83 61 / 20 20 60 50 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 85 64 81 59 / 20 20 60 50 10 Oak Ridge, TN 60 84 63 80 58 / 20 20 60 50 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 83 60 78 56 / 10 50 50 60 10.
This activity is focused north of a warm front that extends east to west across northern Arkansas. However, as the warm front continues to lift north into the region this evening, rain and embedded thunderstorm activity will gradually spread across the rest of the forecast area through late tonight. Low temperatures tonight will fall into the lower to middle 60s. On Tuesday, isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity will develop in the afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front, focused across west Kentucky. High temperatures will range from the lower 70s in the north and west to the upper 70s in the south and east. The cold front will clear the forecast area and stall just south of the AR/TN borders, setting up a dry and cool night with low temperatures in the lower to middle 50s.
Weak upper ridging will build tonight and Tuesday, bringing a short round of dry weather.
1210 PM CDT Mon May 2 2022 Updated for 18Z aviation discussion 18Z TAF discussion: A warm front lift north over north MS will act as a focus for isolated convection between GLH, GWO and GTR, other VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon and evening. /NF/ A cold front will be within proximity of the ArkLaMiss Tuesday, however the main forcing is expected to stay off to the north/northeast.
Daytime high temperatures will range between 5 and 10 degrees above normal with highs between the mid 50s at the highest elevations to near 90 degrees across the Yavapai deserts. With forecast soundings indicating deep mixing up through ~620mb, there will be the potential to transfer some of this higher momentum down toward the surface. Fortunately, the probability of wind gusts exceeding 35-40 mph remains under 20% as mid-level ridging keeps most weather systems well north of the area. As we transition into the weekend and beyond, it appears that our mid-level ridge will begin to breakdown. While deterministic NWP does offer varying solutions for the timing of this trough, extended probabilistic guidance does point toward a return to the windy conditions. Breezy conditions remain overnight in the higher terrain with stronger winds likely just off the surface and up to FL030.
252 PM EDT Mon May 2 2022 A summer-like air mass and upper-level ridging dominates the weather during the work week.
241 PM CDT Mon May 2 2022 Dry and warm gusty west winds were occurring across the area early this afternoon as a well-formed upper level low pressure system was steering east through the central plains. A cold front will soon follow, however, pushing south out of the Panhandle early this evening and crossing most of the Texas South Plains Region by midnight. Much cooler air will spread in by daybreak Tuesday, and low temperatures appear cold enough to require a Frost Advisory early Tuesday morning across the extreme southwest Texas Panhandle and northwestern South Plains. Northeast breezes Tuesday morning will quickly turn southeast in advance of yet another potent upper low crossing the Great Basin.
330 PM EDT Mon May 2 2022 Hot and mostly dry conditions through Tuesday, then better thundershower chances midweek with a cold front crossing the area and another system moving through the Mid- Atlantic states by late in the week. Ridging will be dominant tomorrow, bringing with it suppressed convective activity, and also hot conditions.
Low pressure was still well to the west of the area centered over southwest Kansas. A sharp dryline extended south of the low into western OK with a warm front located from the low southeastward into east central OK and central AR. The main tornadic risk will be west and southwest of our area, but we could see some QLCS spinups with significant 0-3km shear this evening as the low level jet strengthens over the area during the 00z-03z timeframe. Cloud cover is expected to continue much of the day on Tuesday and combined with a cooler air mass in the region behind the front will keep temperatures in the upper 50s in parts of central MO to the upper 60s in parts of south central MO.
The showers have been also rapidly dissipating with just a few lingering sprinkles on the plains and scattered snow showers over the higher mountains. High pressure ridge will build into the region tonight with moderate large scale subsidence. Temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 20s to around freezing. The other consideration is that if stratus hangs on across the plains then temperatures may hold slightly at or above freezing. Temperatures will be warmer Tuesday afternoon as 700mb temperatures climb to around +7C.
2) In part due to the lowering of surface temps, am getting slightly more concerned that some slushy/wet snow accumulation will occur this afternoon-early evening in our northern/western zones. Tuesday, the area will be dry underneath a ridge quickly passing through, but temperatures will only make it into the 50s.
This low pressure system will continue inland today. Southerly winds this afternoon ahead of the low pressure trough will become gusty northerly winds on Tuesday afternoon as the low moves east of the Northern Rockies.
Awaiting arrival of a strong cold front with thunderstorms this afternoon, followed by significant stratiform rain and mountain snow tonight through sunrise Tuesday. Also, very windy this evening in south-central Idaho along and behind the cold front. SPC has southern Idaho (from Boise east) under a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms today, with hi-res models indicating strongest storms this afternoon and early evening along the eastward-moving cold front. The supporting upper low, onshore in NW Oregon at 9 AM MDT, will dig ESE-ward right through southern Idaho tonight. Moist northerly flow aloft behind the low will bring significant "wrap around" precipitation through the night in Idaho, less in eastern Oregon. Mostly VFR with areas of MVFR conditions in lowering clouds and showers along with mountain obscurations as a cold front slides across the region.
A surface warm front extended Harrisburg to Blytheville to Paris at 3 PM. For tonight, attention turns an upper low over the central plains, and the downstream diffluent flow over the southern plains into the mid-MS River valley. A weak follow-on midlevel trof passage may be enough to aid storm initiation Tuesday over west TN, where a Marginal Risk is currently forecast. We may catch a break from storms Tuesday night, under transitory upper ridging.
S/W ridging then builds across the region on Tuesday, with more sun expected as lower clouds tend to dissipate in the afternoon, although that said there may be some diurnal cu in the afternoon.
We may see some clearing of the low clouds into central MN tonight, but those clouds will just be replaced by mid/upper clouds from the system to the south.
822 AM PDT Mon May 2 2022 Low pressure moving into the Great Basin later today will return gusty westerly winds to our mountain and deserts through tonight. Much warmer weather returns for the latter half of the work week as high pressure rebuilds over the Southwest. For the coming weekend, a developing pattern change across the West will bring windy and cooler weather.
Visible satellite is depicting partly cloudy skies, with only a few embedded showers across the island chain and Gulf Waters that are taking advantage of the higher moisture. High pressure centered in the Western Atlantic will continue to maintain moderate to occasionally fresh breezes through tomorrow.
Ahead of it, a warm front has been gradually pushing to the north and expected to stall our somewhere near our southern CWA. How far north the warm front can reach this afternoon is a limiting factor in the afternoons severe potential. The highest severe threat looks to remain just south of the KC Metro where the warm front will likely stall out. A cold front is expected to push through the area by midnight will push storms out of the area. We will remain on the gloomy side through Tuesday, with clouds and cooler conditions lingering behind the passage of the cold front. Highs on Tuesday will top out in the lower 60s.
138 PM EDT Mon May 2 2022 Seasonable temperatures are expected over the course of the week; thunderstorm chances increase tomorrow with crossing low pressure. Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures will continue the remainder of the day and overnight as high pressure transitions over the region. Moisture and warm advection will ramp up early Tuesday ahead of low pressure approaching from the west. Showers and elevated storms should develop by late morning/early afternoon with a warm front. for storms ahead and/or along the cold front.
1151 AM EDT Mon May 2 2022 A summer-like air mass and upper-level ridging dominates the weather during the work week.
Weakening low pressure will continue to its slow exit today into Ontario as shower activity ends across the region. There might be some lingering drizzle in the morning, but overall, expect things to dry out from west to east through the morning as weak ridging builds in. A weak cold front will swing through tonight while a low to the south lifts toward the lower Great Lakes. High pressure builds east across Canada afterwards, slowly shifting into the Hudson Bay region through the week.
A large deformation existed to the north of the low across the southeast panhandle and southwest NE into the central Sandhills. The closed upper low will track east northeast this evening to near Omaha by midnight. This will help keep lows up a few degrees overnight, from the upper 20s northwest to the lower 30s southeast. Upper ridging briefly builds in Tuesday with some clearing skies into the afternoon. The next upper trough and closed low will move into CO and WY Tuesday night, bringing increasing chances for showers across the west.
A low pressure system over the central Plains today will then progress eastward towards the Ohio Valley on Tuesday, with a cold front expected to traverse the ArkLaTex during the day. Another warm day is expected Tuesday, as temperatures creep into the upper 80s inland and into the lower 80s at the coast.
Region will be within low level ridging as any systems remain south of the region. This places our region within mainly low level ridging into the weekend, with the airmass warming gradually. upper level flow across the region becomes southwest as a strong upper trough develops across the western CONUS. location of heaviest rainfall), how much instability will be available, and where the upper low tracks toward the end of the event.
It will tap plenty of Gulf moisture before that happens though and theta-e advection ahead of the low results in PWAT increasing to over an inch on Tuesday. Cool high pressure ridge will extend into Lower Michigan in the low's wake but current forecast lows do not appear to be cold enough to cause any damage to fruit trees or other vegetation since buds and blossoms are behind schedule after a colder than normal month of April.
This along with northward advancing warm front could lead to some rain showers late tonight. There will probably be some ridge/valley splits early before this become less pronounced as cloud cover increases and precipitation arrives late tonight. This wave will help trigger a response to increase the low level jet to 40 to 45 knots at 850 mb. CAMs do show some convection forming through the afternoon and evening time frame mainly ahead of an approaching cold front.
As this first system moves east tonight and Tuesday, it will drag a cold front through the region. Cooler and drier air will move in behind the front which will shut the rain off from west to east through Tuesday morning.
The main cold front is still located in east central Colorado and west central Kansas with some cold air in its wake; with snow reported this morning in portions of northern Colorado and southern Wyoming. Although no snow in our forecast, the main cold front will move south through the OK Panhandle around sunset and the Texas Panhandle just before midnight. Behind the passing cold front, decent CAA will fill into the Panhandles. High temperatures tomorrow compared to today will be a bit cooler, but near average for early May with highs in the 70s with mostly clear skies.
A warm front was analyzed in Oklahoma with a cold front across the eastern Texas Panhandle into NW Oklahoma. As far a threats go, yes there could be a mesocyclone tornado or even a landspout tornado or two associated with the storms. Damaging winds are the lowest of concerns. High pressure will build on south across the High Plains, so the rest of the weather through the short term period should be quiet. Cold high pressure and clouds look to prevail for Tuesday.
108 PM EDT Mon May 2 2022 Seasonable temperatures are expected over the course of the week; thunderstorm chances increase tomorrow with crossing low pressure. Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures will continue the remainder of the day and overnight as high pressure transitions over the region. Moisture and warm advection will ramp up early Tuesday ahead of low pressure approaching from the west. Showers and elevated storms should develop by late morning/early afternoon with a warm front, followed by linear or multi-cellular sfc based convection later in the afternoon and early evening. The Storm Prediction Center has included eastern Ohio zones in their Day 2 Marginal Risk for storms ahead and/or along the cold front.
1201 PM EDT Mon May 2 2022 High pressure builds briefly today.
Models are now showing a stronger cold front moving into the area later tonight, and we could see a few isolated showers or thunderstorms along that boundary late tonight right along our eastern border. One of the near term high resolution models takes the cold front south of the Interstate 10 corridor tomorrow before stalling.
Heights continue to rise Tuesday night as the advertised mid/upper-level closed low slowly drifts east from the inter-Mountain West towards the High Plains. At the same time, troffing across the N Pacific will drive downstream ridging across much of NOAM. These two features combined will contribute to a blocking pattern similar to a Rex Block at first before transitioning to more of an Omega Block towards the weekend. With this mid/upper-level low to the south of us, it will cut the UP off from any return flow, so we shouldn't expect temperatures to climb too much above normal, despite the developing ridge. With persistent ridging across much of the UP, there won't be too much wind to contribute to deeper mixing, so most of it will be from thermal convection.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms associated with the low look to move in as early as mid afternoon, but most CAMs show a bit more coverage around and just before sunset in the southwest, moving northeast this evening. After this push of showers and storms move through overnight into the morning Tuesday, we look to get a little break in the showers and storms before a Midwest trough to our north brings a cold front towards the area, and additional showers and storms develop ahead of the front Tuesday afternoon and evening.
311 PM CDT Mon May 2 2022 A rainy night is on tap for central Illinois, as low pressure arrives in central IL by late Tuesday morning.
348 PM EDT Mon May 2 2022 A weak area of low pressure will pass over the southern New England coastline this evening bringing light showers to the area tonight. Canadian high pressure will follow for the end of the week, with passing low pressure to the south. Clouds continue to fill in from the southwest this afternoon, slowly saturating the lower atmosphere as low pressure passes to the south. These showers will likely remain light with little accumulation as the low levels will stay relatively dry.
(Today through Tuesday afternoon) All rain chances have pushed east for the next 36 hours with the passage of an upper level trough. A weak ridge will quickly move across the area today bringing westerly winds that will help temperatures climb above normal as well as bring a return of critical fire weather conditions. Very belatedly, a weak cold front pushing south from the departing trough will actually reach the Permian Basin Tuesday morning.
419 PM EDT Mon May 2 2022 High pressure will remain off the Southeast coast for the next few days temperatures remaining above normal.
Another warm and summer-like afternoon is underway due to low-level ridging over the Western Atlantic which continues to provide southerly flow and a humid airmass. We remain stuck in the southerly flow regime tomorrow as a cold front moves towards the Lower MS Valley.
242 PM CDT Mon May 2 2022 Current surface analysis places lows over eastern Ontario and over the southern plains, with ridging over the northern plains. Upper level analysis shows a variety of compact lows, with one over western Ontario, one over the central plains, and a deeper one affiliated with a broader trough over the Pacific Northwest. Over our area, westerly flow continues with a weak ridge to the west. Low clouds over the east may end up spreading towards the west tonight with the low level easterly flow. On Tuesday, quiet weather continues with weak ridging ahead of the aforementioned Pacific Northwest low which will meander over the Great Salt Lake area through the day, into the central Rockies overnight.
Gusty northwest winds will occur across the region behind a departing cold front.
804 PM EDT Mon May 2 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chances return Tuesday as the next disturbance approaches, along with warmer temperatures.
730 PM EDT Mon May 2 2022 High pressure will remain off the Southeast coast for the next few days temperatures remaining above normal.
The warm front has finally lifted through and lingers just to our north. Overnight lows will be mild in the low/mid 60s. Most guidance moves the warm front into north central and northeastern Tennessee around daybreak on Tuesday. An associated cold front over central Arkansas into Illinois and Indiana areas moves east towards northwestern Alabama during the day.
Temperatures will slowly warm as the week progresses, but cooler conditions will prevail near Lake Superior with onshore winds. Low pressure was located near James Bay this afternoon with a trough trailing back to the head of Lake Superior. A few isolated sprinkles were observed on radar across the area, but this activity was on a downward trend as the trough moved to the east and high pressure was building in from the west.
For today high pressure will return bringing warmer weather.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY STORM REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE PRIMARY ISSUE BEFORE CONVECTION SUBSIDES LATER TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER COLD FRONT PASSAGE. NEVERTHELESS WILL KEEP LOW END CHC POPS FOR ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION WITH THE HIGHER POPS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN. QUIET WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER TO RETURN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVER. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CANADA THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.