Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Activity has been skirting very close to the Keys at times, especially the Lower Keys, but nothing definitive has fallen yet. In the lower levels the periphery of the subtropical ridge lies just to our east over the Bahamas. To our northwest a large ridge of high pressure is over the Great Lakes region and sliding east. Meanwhile, in the low to mid levels a trough is digging across the Eastern Seaboard. However, aside from the ridge of high pressure near the Great Lakes region, the other aforementioned features will generally hold in place.
1252 PM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022 (Today through Thursday afternoon) Latest wv imagery shows a plume of mid lvl moisture approaching far W TX assocd with a trailing shrtwv trough. The broad, negatively tilted trough currently located over the Intermountain West is expected to advance into the Central Plains today. As it does so, a secondary disturbance will round the base of said trough and lift into W TX by this afternoon. Rain chances are expected to diminish area-wide on Thursday as subsidence builds in behind the departing shrtwv trough.
413 PM EDT Wed Sep 14 2022 High pressure will maintain dry weather and comfortable humidity levels through the weekend. Building high pressure will keep the region dry and quiet throughout the evening. The passage of a cold front over Lake Erie will return stratocu tonight.
High pressure remains in control through the period and beyond. Highs on Thursday will reach the lower 80s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 60s higher elevations.
As another wave of energy comes around the trough to the west, more showers and thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon.
Expect high pressure centered to our northeast to continue promoting light east to southeast winds through tomorrow night and this should keep moisture levels low. A thickening tropospheric column underneath a build upper level ridge will continue to allow daytime temperatures to gradually creep up, but clear skies (besides for some passing thin high clouds) and generally low dewpoints will bring continued good radiational cooling conditions.
High pressure remains in control through the period and beyond. Highs on Thursday will reach the lower 80s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 60s higher elevations. Upper level ridging combined with the aforementioned high will maintain quiet and dry weather across the area through the end of the work week. Highs should reach upper 70s to low 80s in the lowlands and mid 60s to 70s in the mountains on Thursday.
As high pressure continues to build to our east, thereby increasing the local pressure gradient, moderate onshore winds will provide a steady influx of deep Gulf moisture. Expect a slight increase in daytime highs tomorrow, with most locations seeing the lower 90s.
The region currently sits between high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west, with southerly flow ushering warm air into the region. Our active weather continues with a broad 500mb trough set up from off the Pacific coastline through the central U.
1120 AM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022 (Rest of Today) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this morning as an amplifying upper-level ridge builds across the region. Increased thickness values and temps aloft observed with the building ridge will support high temperatures about 2-3 degrees higher than yesterday -- generally in the low to mid 80s (with a few locations in northwest Alabama reaching the upper 80s).
(Through tonight ) Increasing high level cloudiness will occur overnight in advance of an approaching upper trough.
Broad longwave trough will remain over the West Coast through the end of the week, keeping daytime temperatures around 5-15 degrees below daily normals.
120 PM MST Wed Sep 14 2022 Storm chances today will favor the northern and eastern half of Arizona with isolated chances over the high terrain of south- central Arizona.
Temperatures struggled to reach 70 for most areas today, except they are approaching 80 in sunny Janesville where the cold front never reached. We are expecting another night with potential fog, but this time closer to the stalled front near the IL border where temperatures will remain warmer and closer to the dewpoint temps. Thin, high clouds are expected to track overhead tonight as low pressure gets into the Plains. Moisture will be trapped beneath an inversion across southern WI for most of the day Thursday, but southerly winds will start increasing during the afternoon and help mix out the low levels so we should see more sunshine during the afternoon compared to today.
Large trough over NE continues to move east bringing in high pressure both at the sfc and aloft.
1216 PM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022 (Today and tonight) The WV imagery was showing a weak upper level ridge across the Southern and Central High Plains. Also, a trough extended from Ohio to the Lower Mississippi Valley, well to our east.
Temperatures have warmed into the lower 80s across the region under sunny skies this afternoon in a dry air mass characterized by lower than normal PWATs around 0. High pressure continues to build in from the north and expect a quiet night with temperatures falling again into the 50s to around 60 in most locations. This will ridge into the southeastern US, and help to continue advecting very dry air into the region. MOS guidance is generally showing highs in the mid 80s across the area over the next couples of days, with lows in the low 60s. No chance of precip given high pressure and dry air. High pressure will continue to dominate the region through the weekend.
Generally drier and warmer today as remnants of tropical storm Kay continue to shift eastward across Utah. The warming will be due to a weak short wave ridge passing through in the southwest flow aloft. Next incoming upper trough will bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms to our CWA Thursday, almost entirely on the Idaho side.
Slightly cooler than normal overnight during the mid week. High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley continues to build into the region today with light northeast winds. Highs expected to be in the lower to mid 80s.
An upper level trough will move across the area today. As a result should see an increase in shower and tstm activity over the higher terrain by midday with some of this activity spreading across the plains this aftn. As far as highs, readings will be in the 80s over the plains, except over the far northeast corner where highs may reach the lower 90s. As a result, may see some additional shower activity across portions of the higher terrain. HiRes guidance showing scattered showers and thunderstorms developing Thursday afternoon in the mountains and valleys then becoming more isolated into the lower elevations. Storms should move quickly off the higher terrain under unidirectional flow until early evening.
Cloud cover and breezy southerly winds will help keep overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. The aforementioned trough axis will remain over northwestern Oklahoma tomorrow which will be the focal point for additional thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon.
254 PM EDT Wed Sep 14 2022 A backdoor cold front will progress through the area tonight. Thereafter, high pressure will remain in control through the weekend. High pressure remains in control this afternoon.
(Tonight) High pressure over the Southern United States is promoting tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon.
a negatively tilted upper level trough extends from low pressure in Washington state southeast into southwest Kansas early this evening, slowly lifting northeast overnight. Low temperatures are expected to range from the lower to middle 50s in far eastern Colorado to the middle 60s across Norton and Graham counties. High temperatures look to be a little cooler with readings in the upper 70s to lower 80s in far eastern Colorado, middle 80s to around 90 elsewhere. Low temperatures are expected to be in the lower to upper 50s.
257 PM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022 The upper level ridge that has taken control of the sensible weather in the Mid-Mississippi Valley today will continue to do so through tomorrow as it builds across the region. Temperatures will continue to gradually climb, with Thursday being marginally warmer than today.
(This evening through Thursday) Warm and dry conditions continue under upper ridging.
Overnight lows dip into the 60s again starting the day off on the cooler side.
(Tonight Through Thursday Night) High pressure was continuing to dominate the weather pattern across Arkansas today. The high was located over the Ohio Valley, and will shift into New England by late in the period.
The H500 trough will continue to slowly slide east today. For Thursday, with the upper ridge axis positioned from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast by midday, surface winds will increase as a broad, open, short wave trough continues to lift northeast across the Sandhills towards the Dakotas.
1245 PM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022 (Today through Thursday) Today, an upper level ridge stays over eastern parts of the Southern Plains with ridging extending to the southwest over northern Mexico into the Pacific west of the Baja California Spur. Thursday, an upper level trough moving out across the Plains creates a weakness in the upper level pattern splitting the ridge with centers near the lower Mississippi Valley and over northern Mexico. The highest chances are near the Coastal Plains, although cannot rule out a few showers reaching the I-35 corridor prior to dissipation by sunset with loss of heating.
1225 PM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022 The latest surface analysis is showing that high pressure was centered over southern Illinois which was bringing light winds to the area. Given the relatively warm river temperatures and expected lows in the low-mid 50s, should see some patchy fog again this morning in the river valleys before it burns off by mid morning. The HREF is showing that this high will move off to the east which will cause the winds to pick up out of the south to southeast later today into tomorrow. In the upper levels, the ridge over the Plains will slowly build into the Midwest by tomorrow which will keep us dry. Highs today will be in the low to mid 80s which will be about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday as the low levels continue to warm.
Tonight and Thursday Canadian high pressure, east flow and filtered sunshine (from smoke aloft) resulted in cooler temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s this afternoon.
1215 PM EDT Wed Sep 14 2022 A moisture starved cold front could touch off a few widely separated showers this afternoon. A cold front sagging south from the other side of Lake Ontario will make its way through the region this afternoon.
However, as mentioned in previous updates today, the lower atmosphere remains very dry and ceilings are still around 11 kft in Williams and Divide counties. This will bring cooler Canadian air into the region resulting in highs ranging from the upper 50s to low 70s for most of the area.
309 PM EDT Wed Sep 14 2022 A cold frontal passage occurs late tonight, allowing high pressure to build in through the end of the week into the weekend.
Another piece of the puzzle, a weak mid level trough also across FL.
Highs will be in the low 80s, dropping steadily after 4PM into the upper 60s by late this evening. The upper level ridge and high pressure will remain over the Ohio Valley for tomorrow. The overall airmass looks to be rather similar with a typical temperature curve, peaking in the low to mid 80s in the afternoon. Analysis of HRRR integrated smoke indicates an elevated layer of smoke, trapped within the upper level high, will push into the Ohio Valley tomorrow.
932 PM EDT Wed Sep 14 2022 A backdoor cold front will progress through the area tonight. Thereafter, high pressure will remain in control through the weekend. High pressure will continue to build into the region tonight through the end of the week maintaining fair weather conditions. Low temperatures will be around 60 east of the Blue Ridge.
940 PM EDT Wed Sep 14 2022 A mid and upper-level trough will move slowly east across NC tonight.
545 PM MDT Wed Sep 14 2022 19z surface analysis had weak low over northeast WY with frontal boundary into southern MN and lee trough from central MT to eastern CO. Cooler air builds into behind low tonight with 2-4mb/3hr pressure rises, creating gusty winds in the squeeze zone just east of the Black Hills. Thursday, southwest flow aloft continues per upper ridge over the eastern CONUS. Cooler, near normal temperatures foreseen.
934 PM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022 Surface and upper-level ridge across the region to maintain clear and dry conditions across the region along with light and variable winds overnight. Expect high pressure centered to our northeast to continue promoting light east to southeast winds through tomorrow night and this should keep moisture levels low. A thickening tropospheric column underneath a build upper level ridge will continue to allow daytime temperatures to gradually creep up, but clear skies (besides for some passing thin high clouds) and generally low dewpoints will bring continued good radiational cooling conditions.
805 PM MDT Wed Sep 14 2022 As of 02Z, southeastward moving cold front lies from near KD07 to just east of KRAP to far southwest SD. Have made some adjustments to pcpn chances through the overnight, with the higher chances persisting across northeast WY and parts of western SD through 06Z or so. 19z surface analysis had weak low over northeast WY with frontal boundary into southern MN and lee trough from central MT to eastern CO. Cooler air builds into behind low tonight with 2-4mb/3hr pressure rises, creating gusty winds in the squeeze zone just east of the Black Hills. Thursday, southwest flow aloft continues per upper ridge over the eastern CONUS. Cooler, near normal temperatures foreseen.
High pressure continues to build in from the north and expect a quiet night with temperatures falling again into the 50s to around 60 in most locations. This will ridge into the southeastern US, and help to continue advecting very dry air into the region. MOS guidance is generally showing highs in the mid 80s across the area over the next couples of days, with lows in the low 60s. No chance of precip given high pressure and dry air. High pressure will continue to dominate the region through the weekend.
645 PM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022 (00Z TAFS) High pressure and deep layer dry air will continue to suppress convective development through the forecast period with VFR conditions expected to prevail. TJS (This evening through Thursday night) High pressure at the surface and aloft will keep things quiet in the short term.
733 PM EDT Wed Sep 14 2022 A cold frontal passage occurs late tonight, allowing high pressure to build in through the end of the week into the weekend.
608 PM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022 (Through tonight ) Increasing high level cloudiness will occur overnight in advance of an approaching upper trough.
-Zanker AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: A weak low pressure system moving through Wyoming and southeast Montana has been directing multiple periods of scattered rain showers through most of our CWA today.
Prepare for less clearance under fixed bridges, and allow for more scope in dock and spring lines.
712 PM EDT Wed Sep 14 2022 High pressure extending down from the north will keep the weather dry with seasonable temps today through the upcoming weekend. In fact, models indicate a mid-level positively tilted upper trof will swing off the Carolina Coasts later tonight and offshore during Thu. A weak/modest NE wind surge will occur later tonight thru much of Thu due to the passage of this upper trof. This will result in a tightened sfc pg due to a 1025+ mb high ridging across the FA from SE Canada.
818 PM EDT Wed Sep 14 2022 High pressure extending down from the north will keep the weather dry with seasonable temps today through the upcoming weekend. In fact, models indicate a mid-level positively tilted upper trof will swing off the Carolina Coasts later tonight and offshore during Thu. A weak/modest NE wind surge will occur later tonight thru much of Thu due to the passage of this upper trof. This will result in a tightened sfc pg due to a 1025+ mb high ridging across the FA from SE Canada.
739 PM EDT Wed Sep 14 2022 High pressure will maintain dry weather and comfortable humidity levels through the weekend. Building high pressure will keep the region dry and quiet throughout the evening. The passage of a cold front over Lake Erie will return stratocu tonight. High pressure will keep the area dry and warm on Thursday.
620 PM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022 The upper level ridge that has taken control of the sensible weather in the Mid-Mississippi Valley today will continue to do so through tomorrow as it builds across the region. Temperatures will continue to gradually climb, with Thursday being marginally warmer than today.
657 PM EDT Wed Sep 14 2022 A mid and upper-level trough will move slowly east across NC tonight.
Partly cloudy overnight with lows in the low/mid 70s, warming into the upper 80s/around 90 Thursday afternoon. Another piece of the puzzle, a weak mid level trough also across FL.
(Rest of tonight) The Tennessee Valley remains on the southern edge of a large area of high pressure entrenched over the eastern CONUS northward into eastern Canada. A ridge/valley split in low temperatures looks likely again, but likely not as noticeable as yesterday.
616 PM EDT Wed Sep 14 2022 High pressure arrives today to provide dry weather through the remainder of this week. An upper level trough will move east of the area by this evening. Clouds generated by this trough and afternoon heating will fade around sunset. With high pressure over the region, expect another night of light winds and clear skies. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer compare to the last couple of mornings with readings from the upper 40s along ridgetops to lower 50s in the valleys. Areas east of the Blue Ridge should see lows in the mid 50s.
645 PM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022 (Tonight) High pressure over the Southern United States is promoting tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon.
A mid/upper level ridge will continue to move east of the region tonight while southwesterly flow moves into the High Plains.
315 PM MDT Wed Sep 14 2022 A weak low pressure system moving through Wyoming and southeast Montana has been directing multiple periods of scattered rain showers through most of our CWA today.
Water vapor shows zonal flow aloft and a trough making its way into the Great Plains.
604 PM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022 (Today and tonight) The WV imagery was showing a weak upper level ridge across the Southern and Central High Plains. Also, a trough extended from Ohio to the Lower Mississippi Valley, well to our east.
725 PM EDT Wed Sep 14 2022 (Through Tonight) Convection is moving along in NE FL this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorms expected to develop south of I-10 as the cold front stalls over central Florida. Lows will be in the lower 70s for inland NE FL, mid to upper 60s in inland SE GA, and mid-70s on the coast.
714 PM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022 Upper level ridging centered across the Mississippi River Valley region will shift eastward into the eastern CONUS tonight into Thursday. Southwest flow aloft has developed across the Plains due to general long wave troughing across the western CONUS. Still should see about 1500 J/KG of SFC based CAPE develop near the inverted trough.
(Today) Weak upper trough will pass over the area today.
Today, upper trough over the Rockies advances slowly to the northeast, leaving the Panhandles under southwesterly flow aloft. With a decent ridge of 700mb theta-e in place, another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms should result.
1118 PM EDT Wed Sep 14 2022 High pressure will maintain dry weather and comfortable humidity levels through the weekend. Otherwise, dry weather is expected as high pressure builds in behind the trough. Ridging over the Great Lakes should maintain dry weather through Friday night. Ensemble models continue to indicate a flattening ridge through the weekend and maintain warm, dry weather.
Upper ridging slowly weakens to our east as a weak upper level trough migrates eastward through the Southern Plains and towards our region for Friday.
Showers and thunderstorms were ongoing with this trough to the west of Grand Island. Outlook for Today & Tonight: Eastern Nebraska and western Iowa will be sandwiched between upper level ridging over the Tennessee Valley and upper level troughing in the Rockies today.
126 AM EDT Thu Sep 15 2022 High pressure extending down from the north will keep the weather dry with seasonable temps today through the upcoming weekend. In fact, models indicate a mid-level positively tilted upper trof will swing off the Carolina Coasts later tonight and offshore during Thu. A weak/modest NE wind surge will occur later tonight thru much of Thu due to the passage of this upper trof. This will result in a tightened sfc pg due to a 1025+ mb high ridging across the FA from SE Canada. Lows both nights in the low- to-mid 60s.
The upper ridge axis is currently to the west but will slide across the area today. Highs today should be 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday, but dew points will remain tolerable. After some more patchy fog after midnight tonight, Friday looks to be another warm and dry day with highs a degree or two warmer than today.
Precipitation chances diminish overnight into Friday morning, but a lower cloud deck should build in during this time across much of the CWA as northerly winds bring cooler air on the backside of the low. While temperatures will remain about 10 degrees above average ahead of the low this afternoon, with highs in the low to mid 80s, the whole CWA will see a cool-down on Friday with highs in the mid 70s (south central SD) to upper 60s. At the surface a high pressure area will be over North Dakota with northeast flow in the low levels across the CWA. Later through the day the warm front will be set across eastern SD, though at this time it appears the CWA will be on the cool side of the front.
1051 PM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022 The upper level ridge that has taken control of the sensible weather in the Mid-Mississippi Valley today will continue to do so through tomorrow as it builds across the region. Temperatures will continue to gradually climb, with Thursday being marginally warmer than today. Jaja On Friday, a broad upper trough will be evolving over the western CONUS while a deeper trough moves off the east coast.
(Through Tonight) Convection is moving along in NE FL this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorms expected to develop south of I-10 as the cold front stalls over central Florida. Lows will be in the lower 70s for inland NE FL, mid to upper 60s in inland SE GA, and mid-70s on the coast. (Thursday through Friday Night) Dry air in inland SE GA will be limiting any convection Thursday afternoon and evening, PWATs will be below 1 inch following the passage of the cold front.
1205 AM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022 (Today and tonight) The WV imagery was showing a weak upper level ridge across the Southern and Central High Plains. Also, a trough extended from Ohio to the Lower Mississippi Valley, well to our east.
300 AM EDT Thu Sep 15 2022 High pressure will maintain dry weather and comfortable humidity levels through the weekend. These clouds should diminish as the trough completes its passage and dissipates later this morning.
1220 AM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022 (Rest of tonight) The Tennessee Valley remains on the southern edge of a large area of high pressure entrenched over the eastern CONUS northward into eastern Canada. A ridge/valley split in low temperatures looks likely again, but likely not as noticeable as yesterday.
High pressure building in at the surface and aloft will help keep the dry continental airmass over the forecast area for the remainder of the short term forecast period.