Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
912 AM PDT Tue Sep 1 2020 High pressure building into the Pacific Northwest. VFR conditions expected for the next several days under large area of high pressure.
254 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020 Active weather in the short term will persist as upper level ridge builds into the southwestern US and trof deepens a bit over the central US with several waves sliding through. Focus then shifts to our south and southwest as several pieces of energy lift northeast from base of trof currently anchored over NM/TX border beginning late tonight through Wednesday night with best chances of showers and storms across southeast Missouri and southwestern Illinois.
Expect isolated to potentially scattered convective development today, with the higher coverage potential over the eastern and northern portions of the area where better deep layer moisture will be present, and some strong wind gusts will be possible with the stronger storms. Highs this afternoon and on Wednesday range from around 90 near the coast to the lower 90s inland, although some mid 90s will be possible Wednesday afternoon over interior areas. Lows tonight range from the lower 70s inland to the mid/upper 70s at the coast. The low ceilings and fog will mix out to VFR conditions by mid Wednesday morning.
This system will have a weak cold front associated with it that is not expected to lead to much precipitation. Some rain showers will be possible along the cold front associated with this system as it passes through. This system will struggle to produced precipitation far from low pressure system itself. We should see some warmer temperatures tomorrow ahead of the cold front with southerly winds advecting warmer air into the Upper Midwest. This should get us back above average for the day and into the upper 70s to mid 80s before the cold front takes us back down below average tomorrow night.
232 PM MDT Tue Sep 1 2020 A very dry air mass has settled into much of the western CONUS for the time being with broad/flat upper-level ridging in place. A bit of a autumnal roller coaster in the first week of meteorological fall as a dominant ridge and high pressure system sets up over the continental west. The ridging pattern will create a split flow with the northerly systems keeping to Canada and Dakotas and in the south across TX. The northerly disturbances will though impact the region with cooler air masses behind their associated frontal boundaries that will keep things cool in their wake.
With the freezing level at 15. at 500mb a broad ridge axis extends from Bermuda westward across the SE states and the 700mb ridge is slowly becoming more established across the region as well. Models suggest a dry slot moving in from the SW around the western periphery of the ridge on Wednesday which will result in low to no pops across the area. We may remain sandwiched in that dry slot between the center of the ridge to the south and a front to the north which doesn't approach until the weekend and increase pops again.
KDNR Sounding this morning shows a huge cap between 550-500 mb, and mixing should result in dewpoints in the low 30s across the plains. For tonight, the clear skies, light winds, and drying airmass will probably allow temperatures to drop a bit below the guidance, again similar to this morning in most places but a bit colder (around freezing) in the colder mountain spots which had cloud cover this morning.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Mid level high pressure continues to keep the hot and dry weather in place through Wednesday. At the surface, low pressure over Texas and high pressure to the east over the Gulf of Mexico is creating a tight gradient which is bringing strong winds to the area.
That said, dry air in the low levels was preventing much from reaching the ground, but did see a few rain obs under some of the stronger returns in northeast Iowa. Surface ridging will build in for Wednesday and lead to a quiet day with some occasional breezy conditions in spots. Temperatures should be about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today given the expected abundant sunshine, with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s.
Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler for most areas today, but this will be short lived, as dangerous heat returns to the deserts for Labor Day weekend. The cold front has just about exited our area to the south this morning leaving winds out of the north and temps reaching a couple degrees cooler than yesterday. Today's max temps will be the lowest we have seen in a while and Vegas could stay in the double digits this afternoon.
The best time for the highest rainfall rates look to be between 08Z to 12Z.
1215 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020 Light showers/sprinkles/virga around the area will come to an end later this morning, as an upper trough to the west and a bit of vorticity around 700mb move through the region. With so much dry air in the lower levels, don't expect much (if any) measurable precip from these isolated sprinkles. Lows tonight remain near or slightly below average, in the lower to mid 50s across the region. For Wednesday, a ridge to the west with southerly flow and 850mb WAA allow temperatures to warm back above normal.
Tomorrow will be breezy with drier conditions due to a trough moving over the region. A high pressure system moving east of the Continental Divide may cause some east winds along the divide. In one case, a strong ridge builds over the region and it is hot and dry with light east to northeast winds. In the other case, a strong back- door cold front brings much colder air and strong northeast winds to the region.
Tomorrow should be windier than today with a cold front approaching the area through the northwest flow. The cold front moves through the area tomorrow afternoon and evening, but little if any rainfall is expected with it.
Near the coast, marine layer clouds will persist and favor much cooler weather. However, notably cooler temperatures were observed over portions of Mendocino and Lake counties due to the presence of thick smoke. Otherwise, an upper high currently centered near NWRN CA is forecast to develop eastward over the Great Basin with a ridge extending northward across the PACNW.
902 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 2020 Update - Marginal Risk of Severe Weather This Evening - Cold front brings showers and thunder this weekend One change to the forecast was to go with a small craft advisory for parts of the region later tonight.
Clear and dry as upper-level ridge persists throughout the week. Satellite imagery showing clear skies across our CWA as ridge ushers in dry northwesterly flow. Warming trend begins today with drying of the boundary layer, as highs climb into the low to mid 90's in the basin and low to mid 80's at higher elevations. Expect mid 90's for highs, especially throughout the basin, with lows dropping into low 50's and 40's, cooler than Tuesday as drying of boundary layer persists.
High pressure aloft will expand east across the Great Basin through the end of the week.
522 PM MDT Tue Sep 1 2020 A very dry air mass has settled into much of the western CONUS for the time being with broad/flat upper-level ridging in place. A bit of a autumnal roller coaster in the first week of meteorological fall as a dominant ridge and high pressure system sets up over the continental west. The ridging pattern will create a split flow with the northerly systems keeping to Canada and Dakotas and in the south across TX. The northerly disturbances will though impact the region with cooler air masses behind their associated frontal boundaries that will keep things cool in their wake.
An upper level trof continues to slowly progress eastward, currently centered over eastern New Mexico. As this trof slowly makes its way east, multiple rounds of rain and thunder are expected, especially across southeastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. With some clearing in the clouds over northwest Arkansas and due to the high moisture in place, some light fog could be possible Wednesday morning across the Arkansas TAF sites causing some reduced visibilities. Will likely see a break in the rainfall for this evening, although expect additional activity to develop and move into southeast OK later tonight ahead of the slow moving positive tilt trof.
1010 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 2020 Water vapor imagery highlights two upper lows to the west and east of the Florida Keys. A deamplifying inverted trough in the easterlies is pressing west through the Mona Passage.
The upper trough will be closer to the region on Wednesday to provide a slightly better chance for convection to affect the COT area Wednesday afternoon.
/issued 249 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Mid level high pressure continues to keep the hot and dry weather in place through Wednesday. At the surface, low pressure over Texas and high pressure to the east over the Gulf of Mexico is creating a tight gradient which is bringing strong winds to the area.
/issued 257 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020/ (Tonight and Wednesday) Current water vapor imagery shows an upper level low digging into southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. The upper level trough axis will linger across the area on Wednesday leading to scattered showers and storms in the afternoon, with the highest rain chances across the eastern half of the CWA. 42 (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) By Wednesday evening, models depict the axis of the upper level trough that will move into the area tonight along our eastern border or just east of our area.
435 PM MDT Tue Sep 1 2020 A closed upper lows sits just to the east of the Four Corners region with an upper trough over the Desert Southwest. Wednesday, the low tracks to the south over Texas and Oklahoma, with models showing it becoming an open wave. Northwest flow aloft will set up over the Tri State region with a ridge over the West Coast. The ridge over the West Coast will expand eastward through the week, bringing dry conditions to the Central High Plains.
A cold front will move thru the region overnight, bringing the first widespread stratus deck of late summer to the area Wed morning.
636 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020 Widespread cloud cover and isolated showers continue across the area in association with a warm front that is draped across the region. High temperatures tomorrow will be warmer thanks to less cloud cover and the absence of rain cooled air, with highs in the mid 80s.
Today is the first day of meteorological autumn, and we can look forward to cooler temperatures ahead. A ridge of high pressure building in from the Pacific will continue to strengthen over our area as it tracks inland. Temperatures will trend slightly upward during the next few days under the incoming ridge.
A dry northwest flow aloft will continue through Wednesday as an upper ridge gradually builds in from the west. The warming trend will continue with highs in the 90s across the lower valleys.
- Marginal Risk of Severe Weather This Evening - Cold front brings showers and thunder this weekend - Marginal Risk of Severe Weather This Evening A batch of showers and embedded thunder is currently entering far southwest Lower Michigan with a few updrafts popping up ahead of it in area of stronger surface heating under thin cirrostratus.
751 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 2020 Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will become limited by mid to late week as an upper ridge builds over the area and slightly drier air moves into the area. A weak cold front will move into the area from the north over the weekend, and this may lead an increase in showers and thunderstorms with temperatures closer to normal.
Much warmer temps are the consequences of less cloud cover and convection however. With the freezing level at 15. at 500mb a broad ridge axis extends from Bermuda westward across the SE states and the 700mb ridge is slowly becoming more established across the region as well. Models suggest a dry slot moving in from the SW around the western periphery of the ridge on Wednesday which will result in low to no pops across the area. We may remain sandwiched in that dry slot between the center of the ridge to the south and a front to the north which doesn't approach until the weekend and increase pops again.
As for temps, overnight lows will be warm reaching the lower 70s.
729 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 2020 Aviation - Marginal Risk of Severe Weather This Evening - Cold front brings showers and thunder this weekend - Marginal Risk of Severe Weather This Evening A batch of showers and embedded thunder is currently entering far southwest Lower Michigan with a few updrafts popping up ahead of it in area of stronger surface heating under thin cirrostratus.
The larger scale trough axis is moving across northern MN/WI this evening and this forcing could allow for continued development of light showers along the current SW to NE band. Stumpf (Issued 300 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020) Tonight and Wednesday: Now through tonight expect the low levels to dominate the weather with rain showers and weak storms expected, especially this evening. The main forcing for this system will come on the backside of the low pressure system with perhaps indications of a TROWAL as there is clearly WAA in the low to mid levels. Precipitation will likely organize as a SW to NE oriented band of scattered to widespread showers that will push east with the low.
Upper ridge over the area with westerly flow aloft.
Issued by National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 630 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020 With high pressure in control, generally VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period, with the exception of northern terminals. High pressure will also support breezy conditions throughout the day tomorrow, with gusts close to 20kts possible from 15Z onward.
852 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 2020 High pressure is ridging across the area this evening, with a small line of thunderstorms still lifting to the NE along a boundary over Lee county. Generally light winds and seas for the next couple of days with high pressure ridging across the area.
323 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2020 (Today and Tonight) Current water vapor imagery shows an upper level low digging into eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle.
415 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2020 Under mostly clear skies and east winds generally around 10 mph, temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s along the island chain.
214 AM MDT Wed Sep 2 2020 A closed upper lows sits just to the east of the Four Corners region with an upper trough over the Desert Southwest. Wednesday, the low tracks to the south over Texas and Oklahoma, with models showing it becoming an open wave. Northwest flow aloft will set up over the Tri State region with a ridge over the West Coast.
139 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2020 Aviation/Marine - Marginal Risk of Severe Weather This Evening - Cold front brings showers and thunder this weekend One change to the forecast was to go with a small craft advisory for parts of the region later tonight.
At the surface, an approaching shallow cold front will stall from the Ohio River Valley to the Southern Plains. Increasing subsidence from the ridge will keep most of the area dry today, especially as drier surface air from the Gulf rotates around the ridge and enters the TN Valley this afternoon. The highest chance of showers and thunderstorms will be over northwestern AL and portions of southern middle TN, but none of these are expected to be strong.
More scattered storms will develop this afternoon with CKV/BNA/MQY having the highest probability of being impacted.
Strong high pressure will bring dry conditions through the Labor Day weekend.
1010 PM MDT Tue Sep 1 2020 A closed upper lows sits just to the east of the Four Corners region with an upper trough over the Desert Southwest. Wednesday, the low tracks to the south over Texas and Oklahoma, with models showing it becoming an open wave. Northwest flow aloft will set up over the Tri State region with a ridge over the West Coast. The ridge over the West Coast will expand eastward through the week, bringing dry conditions to the Central High Plains.
1226 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2020 A slow moving cold front will cross the region on Tuesday, and while we will experience a fair amount of dry time, the front will generate some badly needed showers and possibly a few thunderstorms.
This is consistent with h700mb temperatures in the high single digits celsius.
Deep layer ridging will continue to build in from the east today and we will see a noticeable decrease in afternoon convection due to the resulting subsidence aloft. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 70s.
406 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2020 A warm front will lift north of the area this afternoon.
High temperatures today will be a tad warmer than yesterday, especially over the southern half of Middle Tennessee, but still remain mostly below the 90 degree mark due to cloud cover and/or precip.
DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 72 92 71 89 / 10 10 30 20 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 72 89 71 86 / 20 20 40 40 40 Oak Ridge, TN 90 72 89 71 86 / 20 30 50 40 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 70 87 69 83 / 30 30 40 50 50.
Overall, will maintain a dry forecast through Wednesday night as ridging and associated subsidence prevails.
The low level moisture, light winds, weak convergence and clearing high level clouds will likely set the stage for fog, which was already setting up at aviation "MVFR" levels over east central Iowa.
156 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2020 Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will become limited by mid to late week as an upper ridge builds over the area and slightly drier air moves into the area. A weak cold front will move into the area from the north over the weekend, and this may lead an increase in showers and thunderstorms with temperatures closer to normal.
359 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2020 Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will become limited by mid to late week as an upper ridge builds over the area and slightly drier air moves into the area. A weak cold front will move into the area from the north over the weekend, and this may lead an increase in showers and thunderstorms with temperatures closer to normal. Mid and upper level ridge extending across FL into the Gulf of Mexico will expand northward into the area today.
1016 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020 Active weather in the short term will persist as upper level ridge builds into the southwestern US and trof deepens a bit over the central US with several waves sliding through. Focus then shifts to our south and southwest as several pieces of energy lift northeast from base of trof currently anchored over NM/TX border beginning late tonight through Wednesday night with best chances of showers and storms across southeast Missouri and southwestern Illinois.
228 AM MDT Wed Sep 2 2020 Critical fire weather conditions expected today as downslope mixing will push temperatures into the low 80s to mid 90s ahead of an approaching cold front. The downslope flow will also bring drier air aloft down to the surface, causing minimum relative humidity values to drop into the lower to mid teens.
1100 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020 Widespread cloud cover and isolated showers continue across the area in association with a warm front that is draped across the region. High temperatures tomorrow will be warmer thanks to less cloud cover and the absence of rain cooled air, with highs in the mid 80s.
Subsidence associated with the subtropical ridge parked over the Northern Gulf should keep any convective storms at bay. /issued Issued by National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL/ With high pressure in control, generally VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period, with the exception of northern terminals. High pressure will also support breezy conditions throughout the day tomorrow, with gusts close to 20kts possible from 15Z onward.
Plan on keeping a low pop going for this chance possibly as far north as the diffuse warm front, as afternoon heating may lead to a few stray showers/storms in the warm sector. Ketcham Dry conditions are expected for Fri into the holiday weekend, as mid level ridging increases over the Rockies with flow over the area shifting back to the NW with a Canadian ridge of high pressure dropping south into the Ozarks.
340 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2020 Clouds have cleared most of the area early this morning as an upper level trough swings across the northern Great Lakes. Expect mostly sunny skies today with comfortable humidity levels and warm highs in the 70s to mid 80s as weak ridging builds over the area.
1222 AM MDT Wed Sep 2 2020 A very dry air mass has settled into much of the western CONUS for the time being with broad/flat upper-level ridging in place. A bit of a autumnal roller coaster in the first week of meteorological fall as a dominant ridge and high pressure system sets up over the continental west. The ridging pattern will create a split flow with the northerly systems keeping to Canada and Dakotas and in the south across TX. The northerly disturbances will though impact the region with cooler air masses behind their associated frontal boundaries that will keep things cool in their wake.
321 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2020 Cool, moist airmass continues spreading into the area this morning in advance of an upper level low pressure system along the New Mexico-Texas border west of Lubbock. Solutions in agreement this upper low will steer east across the Texas South Plains and Rolling Plains today although with differing amounts of precipitation output. Airmass aloft will become a bit more unstable and shear will weaken as the low moves across pointing toward potential for instability showers and thunderstorms. Blended temperatures seem reasonable today with notably lower temperatures behind the cold front that crossed the area last evening. A few solutions are attempting to revive showers overnight behind the upper low in the drying, subsident airmass which we are not buying into for now. Temperatures should remain near or slightly cooler than normal.
228 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2020 A slow moving cold front will cross the region on Wednesday, and while we will experience a fair amount of dry time, the front will generate some badly needed showers and possibly a few thunderstorms.
/issued 556 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2020/ SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): The drumbeat of hot and dry weather will continue for this period of the forecast with the mid-level high pressure system continuing its dominance over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.
High Fire Danger and High Wind are Concerns Today for NE Warm and dry conditions are expected today ahead of an approaching cold front. Cooler conditions and improved fire weather conditions are expected on Thursday as winds decrease over the area. That said, upper ridging is expected to build back across the western U. A cold front will push through the area today with isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The combination of dry fuels, low relative humidity, and strong northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph, gusting to 50 mph will be the main cause, though dry lightning with isolated thunder as a cold frontal passage takes place may add to the overall threat.
532 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2020 Warm and humid weather with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are expected through Thursday with the approach and passage of a cold front.
Upper low continues to rotate around the Texas panhandle as northwesterly flow in the region is dictated by a expansive ridge over the western CONUS. The afternoon is characterized as being warmer with partly cloudy skies as the upper low meanders into western Oklahoma. Aforementioned upper trough finally slides southeast tonight as an incoming wave crosses into the far northern plains. The northern stream wave exits towards the Great Lakes region as a progressive cold front ahead of the vort max enters north central Kansas by Thursday morning. The boundary passes through dry as highs are slightly cooler in the lower to middle 80s. Prepare for a wild swing in temps for the extended as southerly flow returns as the upper ridge flattens towards central KS.
Although there is still plenty of moisture in the lower levels, which resulted in some low clouds and fog this morning, the 12Z KTAE sounding shows considerably drier air in the mid and upper levels. Subsidence within the large upper level ridge will largely suppress convection today allowing temperatures to get hotter than they have in several days.