Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SOME DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE LOWER LEVELS DUE TO THE NORTHERLY FLOW. CURRENTLY WITH A BOUNDARY ALONG THE GULF COAST AND A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS A CHUNK OF THE SOUTHERN U. THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE COAST SHOULD SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER LOUISIANA AND EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA GULF COAST WITH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN U.
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS PRECIP MAY NOT SURVIVE MUCH NORTH OF HIGHWAY 114 AS THE UPPER LOW /NOW WEST OF THE BIG BEND/ BEGINS MOVING MORE EAST THAN NORTH. THIS JET WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TODAY AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO SHIFTS EAST. UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE EJECTING OFF TO THE EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY SUNDAY MORNING.
1010 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY IN WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
1151 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2015 HYDRO AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN AND IT WILL TURN COOLER.
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH LOUISIANA TONIGHT. CURRENTLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER AR WITH A LIGHT NE FLOW. FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NE TO EAST AND KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
/ISSUED 356 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015/ 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND. WITH A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT OR NEAR STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED PARALLEL TO THE COAST. BUT THE TARGETED AREA WHERE THE HIGHEST QPF IS CURRENTLY FOCUSED IS FROM THE WESTERN CENTRAL FORECAST AREA NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. OR ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR. AS THE MAIN WESTERN UPPER TROUGH PULLS NORTHEAST UP AND OVER TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. AS THE 5H TROUGH LIFTS OUT INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATTER TODAY. OTHER THAN THE FACT THAT THERE MAY BE BETTER LL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS STATIONARY/ NEAR COASTAL TROUGH.
1018 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TODAY OFFERING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THIS FRONT INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LOWERED HIGHS A BIT IN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOONER. EXPECT HIGHS SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR 50S FAR SOUTH.
WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SFC RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A COUPLE WEAK WAVES INDUCING FRONTOGENESIS AND BANDS OF SNOW. SIMILAR SCENARIO ALTHOUGH THE RIDGING WILL BE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST AND SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER.
SFC TEMPS LOOK TO BE SUB FREEZING BY THIS TIME. MAKING FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE THE PCPN TYPE. VFR AVIATION WEATHER PERIOD TODAY/TONIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THEN BECOME MORE NORTHEAST AND EAST LATER TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH APPROACHES LK SUPERIOR BY SUNDAY MORNING.
1157 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE WARM FRONT AND CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 70S ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOWER 80S INLAND.
500 MB RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE U. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MORE SUNSHINE WHICH SHOULD WARM THE HIGHS SUNDAY ON UP INTO THE 80S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. WILL BE GOING CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE WARMER GFS AND ECMWF TEMPS SETS AS THE NAM NUMBERS APPEAR A BIT TOO COOL.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST IS PROVIDING STRONG WINDS TO THE EASTERN SIERRA AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THIS EVENING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST IS PROVIDING AN IDEAL SETUP FOR STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY OVER THE SIERRA. AS THE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER INLAND OVERNIGHT. MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
WE EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S INLAND TO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST. AND WINDS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY BECOME SOUTHERLY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
At the surface, high pressure over the southeastern CONUS will begin to shift east tonight and tomorrow. Aloft the Lower Ohio Valley will remain in northwesterly flow. Winds will remain out of the south to southwest as we sit between the high pressure to the southeast and low pressure to the northwest. For tonight temperatures will remain mild, only dropping into the lower to mid 40s.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE CONUS. AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY.
WITH WEAK TROUGHINESS BUILDING IN TOWARD SUNDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE EXTENDED. MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW CENTER WILL MOVE EAST. TEMPS ALSO LOOK TO STAY WELL ABOVE FREEZING SO NO WINTRY PRECIP EXPECTED EITHER.
1145 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2015 Main story in the near term will be the potential for fog to develop generally north of the Missouri River, where several inches to almost a foot of snow still remains; and much warmer temperatures moving into the region tomorrow. Advection fog is likely north of the MO river as warmer air continues to be transported northward over the snow pack. An upper level ridge will build over the region tomorrow with 850mb temps of 14-16 degrees. Steep lapse rates below 925mb will allow some of that warmer air to mix down to the surface, and with general southwesterly surface flow ahead of lee troughing on the High Plains, temperatures are expected to reach into the 60s to near 70 in areas without snow cover.
UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN A BIT AS DISTURBANCES MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MAY SEE A FEW THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS SPILLING ACROSS RIDGE. JAMES A COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BUT NOT MUCH OF A REPLACEMENT FOR THE VERY WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ATTM.
1215 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015 ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PULL WARMER AIR OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND. WHILE NORTHEAST TROUGH FLATTENS AND FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE ZONAL WITH TIME. ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES. ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.
THINK THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN IS VERY REMOTE. WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE REGION WITH TEMPS AROUND 8C TO 12C AT 850MB. WENT A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH WARMER TEMPS TODAY.
Low-level return flow will bring warmer air into the Ohio Valley, but without deep moisture as the trajectory is off the Southern Plains. Temp forecast is close to MOS consensus during the day on Saturday, but leans more on the warmer GFS MOS by Saturday night.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS INTO THE ROCKIES. NEXT TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WITH STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS IN NEB.
412 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM NEW YORK STATE.
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST BUT IS FORECAST TO WASH OUT LATER THIS MORNING. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AS THE MAIN SWATH OF LIFT REMAINS NORTH OF THE BORDER AS THE LOW WEAKENS TODAY. TRANSITIONING TO A LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN BAND FROM AROUND WILLISTON TO BISMARCK AND INTO OAKES. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. QUIET WEATHER START TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES AND MAIN SHORT WAVE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST.
07/06Z TAF CYCLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF ARKANSAS TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY.
1227 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TO THE AREA.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, CHILLY TEMPS, AND PATCHY THIN FOG EXIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER INTO THE PLAINS.
357 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015 ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PULL WARMER AIR OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL FINALLY PULL THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE NEW YORK-PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE TO THE EAST.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULTANT LOW CLOUDS MAY HANG UP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST OK LATE TONIGHT. WHILE IT WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY. HOWEVER RECENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS ACROSS NE OK AND OBSERVED TEMPS ACROSS NW OK INDICATE MUCH WARMER TEMPS ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR SATURDAY.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY A SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY'S HIGHS. RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
1119 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM NEW YORK STATE. THIS COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY.
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE A BIT TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST TOMORROW. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER THAN EXPECTED ACRS SE TX WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S AS OF 3 PM. THE AREA REMAINS BETWEEN A TROF OVER THE E COAST AND RIDGING ACRS THE WRN STATES. SLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE HIGH CNTRD EAST OF THE REGION.
342 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT ON SUNDAY.
Latest water vapor imagery showing upper trough along the west coast helping to push high plains ridging eastward. Therefore expect the warmest temps again (in the low/mid 70s) to occur along and south of I 70 with cooler readings to the north in the 60s. The cold front moving through Saturday night will shift winds to the northwest.
/ISSUED 450 PM MST Fri Feb 6 2015/ Broad upper level trough will remain over Montana with periods of Pacific moisture moving over the forecast area through the weekend. The warm temperatures will keep snow levels relatively high so little to no impacts are expected from precipitation except in the highest terrain.
409 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WET LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
High pressure dominates the Southeast. Today will be warmer due to southerly flow and sunny skies.
THESE DOWNSLOPE BREEZES COUPLED WITH THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF AN H85 THERMAL RIDGE AND VERY MILD TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH MINOR EMBEDDED IMPULSES BEFORE A LOW IS SPAWNED FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND CUTS OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN USA. THIS LOW WILL RETROGRADE BACK TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING PERSISTS FROM TEXAS CLEAN UP TO SIBERIA.
The low clouds across the south will limit the warm-up slightly, but we should still see readings in the mid/upper 70s south of the Colorado River. Winds will back to the south early in the evening, but will eventually veer to the west overnight as the next cold front approaches the area. Dry cold front will move through mid morning through early afternoon Sunday.
1112 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 AT H5 UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH TROUGHS OFF OF BOTH COASTS. H85 T/S IN THE LOWER TEENS WILL PROMOTE WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S. SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER SNOW FIELDS.
410 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM NEW YORK STATE. THIS COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY.
A DEVELOPING TROF WILL SWING ITS ENERGY THRU TONIGHT-SUNDAY, SO A CHANCE OF RAIN (OR DRIZZLE) WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WARMUP/TROF PASSAGE FOR THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME FRAME.
1227 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE EXITS. PSEUDO WARM FRONT LIFTING NE TONIGHT.
A NEARLY ZONAL MID-UPPER FLOW REGIME SHOULD KEEP A WEAK NEARLY EAST-WEST ORIENTED SURFACE TROF DRAPED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN KS ON SATURDAY. SUCH A PATTERN WOULD PRODUCE A BALMY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S. WITH THE COLD FRONT OF "PACIFIC" ORIGIN SUNDAY WILL STILL BE VERY WARM (65 TO 70F).
315 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY AND IS IMPACTING THE PLAINS TEMPERATURES GREATLY FOR FEBRUARY.
247 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION YESTERDAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING.
WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WAS MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AT DSM. DEWPOINTS IN THESE AREAS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S SO EXPECT FOG OVER THE SNOW COVER INTO SAT MORNING TO SOME EXTENT. SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE JUST SHY OF FREEZING THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS SO HAVE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR PRECIP TYPE. BUT MORE LIKELY PRECIP TYPE THROUGH THIS EVENT WOULD BE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND BRING FREEZING RAIN TO THE NORTHERN SITES.
320 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN PLAYER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS WELL AS PULL IN A STRONG SURGE OF WARMER AIR TO THE REGION. ESPECIALLY THE RIDGES.
South to southwesterly winds will persist in the low levels of the atmosphere with winds once again becoming gusty by late this morning into this afternoon.
THE NAM CONTINUES TO TREND NORTH OF LAKE OF THE WOODS WITH THE HIGHEST QPF TONIGHT. WITH VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND EVEN SOME SPOTS AT THE SFC PUSHING FREEZING. THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IF ANY PRECIP OCCURS AT ALL.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM SOUTH CAROLINA INTO N FL GRADUALLY MOVES EAST AND WILL BE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT DUE A CONTINUED WARMING TREND AS WINDS VEER TO S AND SW OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
416 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE HIGH. THIS MAKES SENSE BECAUSE THE WARMER WATERS ARE EFFICIENT MIXERS OF BOUNDARY LAYER WIND MAGNITUDES. WINDS ARE 20 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER REEF AND GULF SIDE WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE PLAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL KEEP OUR CWA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THEN READINGS WILL DECREASE BACK TOWARD NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. RATHER BENIGN PERIOD FOR THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA AS BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPS.
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS SRN WI TONIGHT AS SLIGHTLY MOISTER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES TO SURGE NWD. EXPECT MORE CLOUDINESS TONIGHT DUE TO MORE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AFFECTING THE AREA AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS EASTWARD ALONG BOUNDARY. BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG DUE TO LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS AND WARMER DEWPTS IN THE AREA.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MIXED LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S LATER TODAY IN SPITE OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA WELL NORTH OF KGRR. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
Temperatures today are a pretty big question mark with a very sharp temperature inversion in the lowest 2000 feet of the atmosphere. This would support highs in the lower to middle 60s across areas without a snow pack. This gives temperatures a bit cooler than what was forecast earlier, but still puts KC within a few degrees of record (69 set in 2009). Areas further north with snow on the ground will obviously be cooler but still should be able to warm into the 50s.
AND INTO THE 50S AND 60S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL STAY BRISK FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LEE OF THE E MTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE S TO SSW.
LATEST MODELS HAVE COME IN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THEY WERE EARLIER. SO HAVE HAD TO PUT IN A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION BAND. HIGH PRESSURE IN MANITOBA REACHED OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 20Z. CLOUD COVER WAS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THIS HIGH PRESSURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NO LONGER SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON FREEZING DRIZZLE AND HAVE LEFT OUT THROUGH THE DAY. USED A CONSENSUS FOR THESE AMOUNTS WHICH KEEPS THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES.
WE ALSO INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND WHERE SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS WERE FAVORED.
A weak trough will track across the plains today, which will help push that warm air over eastern KS. Cooler temperatures will again reside across southeastern KS similar to yesterday where highs were over estimated. Therefore have went with highs in the low to mid 70s along I-70, near 60 over the snow covered areas, and upper 60s in southeast KS. The breezy conditions combined with relatively warmer temperatures and dewpoints in the 30s will bring very high fire danger back into the area mainly west and south of Manhattan on Sunday afternoon.
107 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
Will go at or even slightly higher than the warmer GFS MOS guidance for temperatures today. Highs may be a little cooler across portions of northeast MO where there is still some residual melting snow cover.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION. DEEPER MIXING ON SATURDAY SHOULD PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES EVEN WARMER. AND A BIT WARMER FOR LOCATIONS ON THE EDGE. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION NEAR TERM MODELS ARE INDICATING LOW VISIBILITIES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT SO HAVE MENTIONED MORE WIDESPREAD FOG IN THIS AREA TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INDICATE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN PROVIDING SOME THICKER HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TONIGHT WILL BE THE FIRST OF A COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS. THE LOW DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA PRESENTLY SHOULD SUPPORT THE COLDER VALLEYS INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT WITH THE RIDGES STAYING IN THE 30S. CLEAR SKIES WILL LAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LARGE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURES SPREADS DEVELOPING ONCE MORE. WITH READINGS INTO THE LOWER 30S. RIDGES MAY STAY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT. BUT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. PEAKING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.
Low pressure riding along the warm front currently to our north will begin to drag a trailing cold front southward across the forecast area on Sunday. Have kept the highest rain chances across the northeast third of the CWA during the afternoon. On Sunday, favored the warmer GFS MOS in the southeast with highs in the mid 50s, trailing back to the upper 30s across the northwest CWA where there will still be a decent snow cover.
ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.
408 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY. CLOUDS BEGIN TO THICKEN LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW CENTER WILL MOVE EAST. TEMPS ALSO LOOK TO STAY WELL ABOVE FREEZING SO NO WINTRY PRECIP EXPECTED EITHER.
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AS WELL AS AIR TEMPERATURES.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT BOTH KMSL AND KHSV DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
252 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015 LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD RIDGE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS. THE H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AND TAKES ON A SLIGHTLY WESTERLY ORIENTATION TODAY. SUPPORTING STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND BETTER WAA FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER. I LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SHATTER DAILY RECORDS FOR HIGHS TODAY WITH TEMPS HOVERING NEAR 80 OR EVEN THE LOW 80S SOUTH OF I-70.
114 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM NEW YORK STATE. THIS COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SPREADING THE WARMER AIR FARTHER NORTH AND EAST FOR SATURDAY. THE ISSUE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE ABILITY TO MIX THE WARMER AIR DOWN INTO SATURDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE REGIONS CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY FOR RAIN WITH FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT EAST IN THE CWA. EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE COOLER ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT MUCH OF THE LOW CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FEATURE WILL HELP PUSH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FARTHER EAST IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE NAM MODEL CONTINUES ITS COOL BIAS WITH ONLY LOW TO MID 60S AND WILL USE THE WARMER GFS WHICH HAS OUTPERFORMED THE NAM WITH TEMPS OF LATE.
WHILE A SOUTHERN WAVE MAY HELP GENERATE SOME PRECIP IN THE WARMER AIR OVER CENTRAL DAKOTAS. RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. BUT COOLER THAN SATURDAY AS MILD COLD ADVECTION BRINGS DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
STEADY RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
MIXED WITH SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG THE IRON RANGE INTO THE ARROWHEAD. THINK THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN IS VERY REMOTE. WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
604 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT ON SUNDAY.
431 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2015 LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD RIDGE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS. THE H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AND TAKES ON A SLIGHTLY WESTERLY ORIENTATION TODAY. SUPPORTING STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND BETTER WAA FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER. I LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SHATTER DAILY RECORDS FOR HIGHS TODAY WITH TEMPS HOVERING NEAR 80 OR EVEN THE LOW 80S SOUTH OF I-70.