Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Light northeasterly/easterly winds will persist into tonight, allowing for cooler and drier air off of lake Superior to advect into western Wisconsin and portions of east-central Minnesota. Temperatures will warm by a few degrees tomorrow as heights rise over the region in response to the ridge building over the central CONUS. This could be enough to keep temperatures a degree or two cooler during the afternoon depending on its opaqueness, but these impacts look more possible over the weekend when smoke coverage looks like it could be more widespread. The upper level ridge that set records over western Canada and the Pacific Northwest will be over the Upper Midwest this weekend.
An upper trough digging into the eastern states will drive a cold front through the area Friday night. The focus for convection will be along a weak Piedmont trough and a sea-breeze boundary. Highs should be seasonal, in the low and mid 90s across the region. Tonight, an upper trough will dig southward through the Great Lakes region. The associated cold front will push into the Mid- Atlantic region but will remain north of the forecast area. Cold front will be moving into the forecast area early Friday morning along with showers and thunderstorms. The cold front will slide to the coast Friday evening and offshore overnight.
1216 PM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021 Currently a deep trough is located over Ontario and the Great Lakes region while an anomalous ridge remains over central Canada. Locally the Central Plains remains under very weak ridging/nearly zonal flow.
Tonight and Friday High pressure will keep the weather dry and relatively cool for this time of year through the end of the work week. The low dew points will mean low relative humidity values during the daytime hours. Lows tonight will be on the cool side, falling into the lower to middle 40s across the north with a few upper 30s not out of the question, with lows around 50 across central and east- central Wisconsin. Friday Night Through Thursday Generally quiet weather remains expected this weekend as the strong ridge over northwest North America folds into the region.
1205 PM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021 Early morning water vapor imagery shows an elongated upper trough swinging over the Great Lakes region, with the western extent moving southwards across the northern plains. Areas west of I-29 will likely begin to see slightly breezy conditions from the south by the afternoon hours, and will thus be able to mix down warmer air aloft keeping afternoon temperatures in the lower 90s.
5 inches extends from Yuma county southeast through Goodland and Oakley early this morning, in between high pressure centers over central Texas and the northern plains. The coolest afternoon temperatures are expected under the higher cloud cover and precipitation chances with low to mid 70s expected. Further northeast and east where clouds and precip chances are lower highs are expected to be in the low to mid 80s. For tonight drier air aloft moves in from northeast to southwest as the upper high over the northern plains slowly shifts south.
333 PM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021 Showers and storms will end this evening, leading to cooler and drier weather tonight into Friday.
Ongoing convection will slowly focus further inland, as the flow in the lower levels is from the southeast. High pressure will be east southeast of the region through Tonight. The high will move further to the southeast Friday, as a cold front moves into SE GA. With the change in pattern, the lower level flow will be from the southwest.
231 PM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021 Latest 18z surface analysis shows weak cold front extending from northwest Minnesota to southern Wisconsin and high pressure over southern Ontario. Subsidence underneath ridge will provide mostly clear/mostly sunny skies and slightly cooler temperatures.
234 PM MDT Thu Jul 1 2021 Current radar and water vapor loops show storms developed over much of Wyoming, associated with an upper low sitting over the region. Given the low CAPE and lack of any shear in the region, chance for severe is low, though small hail and gusty winds up to 40mph may be possible with these storms.
400 PM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021 Summary: High pressure will shift over the region bringing hot and near record temperatures through the weekend.
/issued 409 AM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021/ Bermuda high in place at surface and aloft, with an inverted trough or weak upper low over the northern Gulf of Mexico.
/issued 1132 AM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021/ Area of showers and thunderstorms continue to occur this morning across Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and Northwest Tennessee along a pre-frontal trough. A cold front will approach the area today bringing showers and thunderstorms. Showers will continue through Friday as the cold front finally exits the area. Showers should exit the area by Friday night as high pressure begins to settle over the region. Behind the front, cooler/less humid air will filter in. High temperatures will be in the lower 80s and lows will be in the 60s. Expect a mostly dry Independence Day weekend, as northerly flow and our high pressure will keep rain chances out of the area through the weekend. An upper- level ridge will build over the area allowing weak disturbances to push through.
250 PM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021 The pattern aloft this afternoon features a trough digging down the eastern seabord with a low over the central Gulf of Mexico.
The convection is out ahead of a cold front now moving south from just south of the Great Lakes late this morning. A few isolated showers are developing ahead of the convection in Kentucky as temperatures area warming up into the lower 80s. With the high moisture content of the atmosphere and mixed layer CAPE values over southwest Virginia and the northern Plateau around 1000 to 1500 J/KG per mesoanalysis analysis from SPC expect some showers and storms to develop ahead of the convection late this morning and early afternoon.
Isolated to widely scattered showers and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder are expected across the area as the secondary/backdoor cold front moves through. Behind this front, the arrival of cooler and much less humid air will infiltrate the region tonight. Temperatures running about 5-10 degrees below normal is expected both Friday and Friday night as a surface anticyclone approaches from the Upper Midwest. These values may even be a bit cooler than currently forecast Friday night as long as it can stay clear given the low dewpoints and light/variable winds near the surface anticyclone.
Temperatures are already in the lower 80s in some spots, so another warm day is on tap. The region is on the east side of the upper ridge propagating eastward toward the northern plains. Guidance in very good agreement with upper ridging propagating into and over the region by Friday. Airmass will continue to warm each day, with daytime temperatures near 90F today, and into the low/mid 90s Friday. A ridge continues to translate across the region over the weekend, with zonal flow setting up after. Under the ridge temperatures continue to be hot, with record setting highs possible.
WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO High pressure strengthening over the Four Corners region will dominate the weather over the Southwest through the holiday weekend.
The strongest convection remains locked to the higher terrain out west, and with the aforementioned weak steering flow, this will continue. Lows overnight will be a little warmer than this morning, in the lower 60s, as the airmass continues to gradually modify. Chances for convection look to remain well to the west over the higher terrain tomorrow afternoon and evening.
Skies should clear out quickly and winds will go light and variable tonight with high pressure overhead.
500mb ridge is noted over Texas providing modest dry air AOA 700mb.
Surface cold front may be a little slower to progress southward than previously thought, but still expecting upper level trough to swing through mid state region tonight. As surface cold front moves through mid state region as Friday progresses, highs on Friday will be cooler than normal seasonably generally ranging from upper 70s Cumberland Plateau Region to mid 80s elsewhere.
1132 AM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021 Area of showers and thunderstorms continue to occur this morning across Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and Northwest Tennessee along a pre-frontal trough. A cold front will approach the area today bringing showers and thunderstorms. Showers will continue through Friday as the cold front finally exits the area. Showers should exit the area by Friday night as high pressure begins to settle over the region. Behind the front, cooler/less humid air will filter in. High temperatures will be in the lower 80s and lows will be in the 60s. Expect a mostly dry Independence Day weekend, as northerly flow and our high pressure will keep rain chances out of the area through the weekend. An upper- level ridge will build over the area allowing weak disturbances to push through.
1146 AM PDT Thu Jul 1 2021 Today will be cooler over the region due to increased cloud cover and a chance of thunderstorms may still hot.
Dewpoints are still in the lower 70s in the southern portions of the forecast area and forecast soundings show some weak instability persisting there until the boundary layer stabilizes this evening. The drier air will slowly move into the area overnight with dewpoints falling into the lower 60s by the morning hours.
CIMMS-derived 200 mb vorticity continues to show a number of upper level troughing features in the vicinity of the KEYS that have helped suppress the climatological ridging from the Central Atlantic into the Florida Keys. With a continuation of light southeast to south flow as the aforementioned ridge continues build over the island chain, have lower PoPs slightly overnight.
Slightly stronger influence from the mid/upper ridging and drier air moving into the CWA from the NE has helped to limit activity to mainly along the coast (with the bay and seabreezes) thus far today. A weak wind shift at IAH is expected around noon (17- 18Z and most likely a pre-frontal trof) but the better POPs with all of this may not occur until late in the afternoon/early eve- ning. Mid level ridge centered across cntl Tx should suppress rain chances for most of the area.
The area of widespread showers and thunderstorms ahead of the cold front is only very slowly shifting south and east from eastern KY with a new area of convection over western TN and southwest KY. The northern plateau and southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee mountains look to have the highest threat. The cold front to the north over the Ohio Valley this afternoon will reach the forecast area late tonight and then move across the region between 12-18Z ending the rainfall. Highs will be several degrees cooler Friday from lower to mid 70s northeast higher valleys to mid 80s south.
KSFO Bridge Approach. Gusty onshore winds north of the Bay Bridge will persist each afternoon and evening through the week.
241 PM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021 Continued quiet weather tonight into Friday as high pressure aloft and at the surface control the weather.
400 PM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021 Tonight through Friday: The forecast for active weather over the ArkLaMiss region in the next 24+ hours is still on track as seasonably strong cyclonic vorticity advection associated with an impressive mid/upper level trough crosses the forecast area. The current summer airmass is supporting disorganized diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity, but storms north of the area are more in association with the upper trough, and there could be an increasing thunderstorm threat related to this along the Highway 82 corridor as we go into the evening hours.
These will shift southeast tonight ahead of a cold front lagging behind along the I-70 corridor. The cold front lagging will keep the area at risk for a few morning thunderstorms, ending from north to south. Dew points will be slow to fall behind the front, but should drop into the lower 60s north to around 70 south by the end of the afternoon. However, by Friday night, dew points will fall into the lower to middle 50s.
1135 AM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021 Cooler and less humid but unsettled weather likely to persist into the upcoming holiday weekend with chances for showers and thunderstorms. The upper trough then drops south towards the Lower Lakes through tonight. Tonight, a secondary frontal boundary will push into then though the eastern Great Lakes along with the upper trough sinking south across far Western NY. Friday, the upper level trough slowly swings over and through western NY, then pulls east by late in the day.
A morning cold front turned winds northeasterly off the lake this morning helping cool things off and bring in drier air. As the upper trough finally pushes off to the east north northeast flow will continue advecting in cooler drier air tomorrow. A weak reinforcing lake breeze should hold down temperatures in the lower 70s near the lakeshore. Mixing during the afternoon should keep dewpoints down in the lower 50s to even upper 40s, which will be a welcome change after such a prolonged stretch of humid days.
Ceilings will deteriorate as a cold front pushes through the mid state later on, with IFR/MVFR ceilings developing overnight, along with some fog.
An upper-level ridge continues to build in over the central CONUS as the deep Great Lakes Low continues to push of towards the east.
We may see a few clouds slip over the ridge and into western areas but it shouldn't have much impact on low temperatures. Low lying areas and typically cooler locations will likely drop into the lower to middle 40s. The upper trough shifts off to our east with heights aloft on the rise from an approaching western upper level ridge.
High pressure will build into the region during the period, ushering in much lower humidity and more comfortable conditions, and a gorgeous start to the holiday weekend.
The highest dew points look to be in the upper 50s, so the humidity will remain on the lower side. A temporary ridge will lose its footing in the northern plains as the holiday weekend rolls around, putting us into zonal flow here in eastern ND and northwestern MN. Guidance has a system and cold front moving through over the weekend, however, the moisture is all coming from the Pacific Northwest and appears to be lacking once it reaches our area.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening across eastern Oregon and the higher terrain in Idaho. Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will develop in the higher terrain and across eastern Oregon.
720 PM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021 Summary: High pressure will shift over the region bringing hot and near record temperatures through the weekend.
As a deep upper trof moves across the Northeast, high pressure and drier air will settle south into the area.
KSFO Bridge Approach. Gusty onshore winds north of the Bay Bridge will persist each afternoon and evening.
Weak ridge axis south/east with light SWRLY winds and humid conditions. A mid level trough extending from the Great Lakes to the Northeast down the spine of the Appalachians will dip southward. A band of moisture on the outer fringe of the trough becomes trapped across the area, surging to 2. Ridge axis slips south/east on Fri with WSW/W surface winds.
Hot temperatures will continue tomorrow as the ridge gets pushed northeast by a mid-level wave. Of interest, the high pressure system that caused the previous record setting hot weather, will transfer its energy back into the Four Corners region of the southwest US (where it belongs!).
Latest 18z surface analysis shows weak cold front extending from northwest Minnesota to southern Wisconsin and high pressure over southern Ontario. Subsidence underneath ridge will provide mostly clear/mostly sunny skies and slightly cooler temperatures.
/issued 257 PM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021/ A cold front will continue to push into the Mid-South tonight. The high will bring low humidity levels to the area as drier air will continue to filter into the region. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, but will feel pleasant due to the low humidity.
The upper level trough currently in the northeastern part of the CONUS will begin digging down. An associated cold front will also push southward but it does not look like it will quite make it to the coast. Even if the front stalls further north or south, we will still be near the base of the trough so overall thinking it will be fairly wet regardless.
943 PM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021 Light to moderate rainfall continues to track across the Valley ahead of a cold front currently pushing south through western KY. The cold front lagging will keep the area at risk for a few morning thunderstorms, ending from north to south. Dew points will be slow to fall behind the front, but should drop into the lower 60s north to around 70 south by the end of the afternoon. However, by Friday night, dew points will fall into the lower to middle 50s.
810 PM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021 Showers and storms will end this evening, leading to cooler and drier weather tonight into Friday.
911 PM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021 (Issued 911 PM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021) High pressure will continue to slowly shift south tonight through Friday. Some passing high clouds tonight and again on Friday are expected with the high.
Upper level ridging continues to linger over the area. On Friday, the approach of an upper level trough may allow isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity to spread from SW MT northeastward across much of the CWA.
Temperatures early this afternoon are around 2 to 10 degrees warmer than this time yesterday across most of interior Northern California. This is thanks to the increased onshore flow pulling in cooler marine air to the area.
757 PM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021 An upper level low drops out of Canada and over western NY/PA during the next 18 to 24 hours. with troughiness nudging down aloft the northern Gulf of Mexico. At the surface broad high pressure from the Atlantic extends across FL.
631 PM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021 Continued quiet weather tonight into Friday as high pressure aloft and at the surface control the weather.
624 PM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021 Summary: High pressure will shift over the region bringing hot and near record temperatures through the weekend.
546 PM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021 A cold front is located from southern IL to central OH late this afternoon, heading southeast toward us. It is supported by an upper trough stretching from the mid Mississippi Valley northeast over Ontario, moving east southeast. The right entrance region of an upper jet on the forward side of the trough was providing support for precip, with abundant deep moisture in place.
925 PM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021 All is quiet across our Northwoods late this July 1st evening as high pressure and dry air continue to build into the Western Great Lakes region. We may see a few clouds slip over the ridge and into western areas but it shouldn't have much impact on low temperatures. Low lying areas and typically cooler locations will likely drop into the lower to middle 40s. The upper trough shifts off to our east with heights aloft on the rise from an approaching western upper level ridge.
631 PM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021 The upper level trough that was present across the region this morning is slowly shifting northeast and away from us. That said the low level ridge will be accompanied by a building upper level ridge from our east starting tonight.
Late afternoon temperatures are currently in the lower 80s to lower 90s under partly cloudy skies. On Friday, the upper air pattern begins to change as high pressure aloft shifts into the desert southwest. A weak cold front is expected to approach the area late in the day and this will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms to portions of the Hill Country and I- 35 corridor north of San Antonio.
Ridging persists over much of Texas today with decreased shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon.
Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will develop in the higher terrain and across eastern Oregon.
A cold front is located from southern IL to central OH late this afternoon, heading southeast toward us. It is supported by an upper trough stretching from the mid Mississippi Valley northeast over Ontario, moving east southeast. The right entrance region of an upper jet on the forward side of the trough was providing support for precip, with abundant deep moisture in place.
The strong high pressure bringing very hot temperatures has moved east and is now centered over central Canada. To our south over northern Utah there is a weakening upper level low bringing moisture into our area. Thunderstorms could see some moderate to strong outflows as we remain fairly dry in the lower levels, especially today and for our northern areas. However, the lower layers are quickly moistening up.
533 PM MDT Thu Jul 1 2021 Current radar and water vapor loops show storms developed over much of Wyoming, associated with an upper low sitting over the region. Given the low CAPE and lack of any shear in the region, chance for severe is low, though small hail and gusty winds up to 40mph may be possible with these storms.
738 PM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021 Showers and storms will end this evening, leading to cooler and drier weather tonight into Friday.
After 09Z MVFR cigs along with vsby restrictions are expected to develop from the nw ahead of a cold front that will drop into the area Friday. IFR/MVFR cigs along with -RA and scattered TSRA wl spread south through the day along and ahead of the cold front. /22/ Tonight through Friday: The forecast for active weather over the ArkLaMiss region in the next 24+ hours is still on track as seasonably strong cyclonic vorticity advection associated with an impressive mid/upper level trough crosses the forecast area. The current summer airmass is supporting disorganized diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity, but storms north of the area are more in association with the upper trough, and there could be an increasing thunderstorm threat related to this along the Highway 82 corridor as we go into the evening hours.
Light to moderate rainfall continues to track across the Valley ahead of a cold front currently pushing south through western KY. The cold front lagging will keep the area at risk for a few morning thunderstorms, ending from north to south. Dew points will be slow to fall behind the front, but should drop into the lower 60s north to around 70 south by the end of the afternoon. However, by Friday night, dew points will fall into the lower to middle 50s.
134 AM EDT Fri Jul 2 2021 A cold front will move across the state overnight. Low pressure at upper levels and its associated pool of cold air aloft will drift over Northern Pennsylvania or Southern New York on Friday, continuing the likelihood of showers and scattered afternoon thunderstorms there, with drier weather for southern Pennsylvania. Low temps early Friday morning will be in the 55-60F range over the Northern and Western Mtns of PA, and mid to upper 60s throughout the Lower Susq Valley and adjacent locations. The small closed low center at 500 mb within an amplifying trough will drop SE from the Upper Glakes Region and become located over the Southwest corner of New York state at 12Z Friday.
Despite this air mass ranking near the 25th percentile of 850mb temperatures for early July (per SPC sounding climatology for ILX), we hedged on the warmer side of model guidance for highs this afternoon. Temperatures should easily warm into the upper 70s given the high July sun angle and abundant sunshine. Even still, today will be between 5-10 degrees cooler than a typical July day.
Clearly, the drier, more stable post- backdoor cold front airmass has won the battle, with all rainfall well removed to our south along the boundary in Texas and Oklahoma as of midnight. MOS guidance has been too cool lately, but the latest 00z guidance looks better, and with highs in the lower to mid 80s once again Friday afternoon.
320 AM EDT Fri Jul 2 2021 A relatively slow evolving pattern with upper level trough/500 MB low hanging around the Eastern Great Lakes into the weekend, with pronounced upper level ridge holding along the Manitoba/Ontario border down into the upper Mississippi River Valley.