Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Convection associated with outflow from an early morning MCS moving across a theta-e ridge early this afternoon resulted in a linear complex organizing across much of north Florida, stretching into the Gulf.
336 PM CDT Sat Apr 7 2018 The main story in the short term is the low pressure system moving across the region late tonight and through the day on Sunday.
0 KFT AGL) are near the warmer end of the favorable DGZ - around -12 to 13C. In between these two areas of potentially patchy light snow, much of the Central Ridge and Valley region with see variable amounts of shallow stratocu and alto cu with virtually no chc of precip. There may be a few brief snow showers downwind of the lower Lakes across north- central/NW PA.
406 PM CDT Sat Apr 7 2018 Tonight through Sunday: The primary concerns tonight will be shower and thunderstorm chances late this afternoon into early this evening, and then the potential for freezing temperatures later tonight into early Sunday morning. Expect sunny skies to allow for much more comfortable conditions by Sunday afternoon as weak high pressure becomes centered over the area.
536 PM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018 Low pressure moves away tonight with high pressure for Sunday.
409 PM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018 A quiet and cold weekend is expected as high pressure builds into the region.
343 PM CDT Sat Apr 7 2018 Strong late season Canadian cold front is located at 07/20Z from along the Southeast Louisiana coast out into the outer coastal waters of the Gulf of Mexico, with still some strong convection just ahead of it with frontal convergence and good instability. Otherwise, high pressure system over the Plains is building in with blustery north winds allowing air temperatures to drop into the 40s and 50s creating quite the temperature gradient of 30F degrees over the forecast area with KPTN at 71F and KESF at 41F. Rua High pressure will continue to build into the forecast area tonight pushing cold front further away. This high pressure system will move quickly off to the east on Sunday.
241 PM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018 Low pressure over the Southeast will shift offshore tonight.
In addition to overcast skies over our eastern half to two-thirds of the region, north-northeast winds at 10-15 mph gusting to 20-25 mph tonight should cause enough mixing to prevent temperatures from falling below freezing as low temperatures range from the mid to upper 30s in the Hill Country to mid 40s in the Rio Grande Plains. However, temperatures may fall to freezing in very isolated low-lying areas with somewhat calmer winds in the Hill Country if skies clear by sunset and remain that way.
Low- level temperatures will be warmer than this morning with forecast mins near or just below freezing. And temperatures roughly around the 700 mb layer are forecast to increase well above freezing today and tonight. So precipitation type looks most likely to be rain or freezing rain, depending on the near-surface temperatures. Although most of the precipitation signal from the synoptic models is near the Kansas state line, the HRRR and RAP both show some simulated radar reflectivity farther south too (although some may end up being virga), so will also include an area of drizzle and/or freezing drizzle down into west central and central Oklahoma. Sunday will be warmer than today, although still relatively cool for the season.
Radar returns are picking back up across eastern Tennesse this afternoon as expected due to an upper trough axis approaching. There is some uncertainty about how quick the clouds will clear out, but regardless it still looks like temps will be several degrees below freezing so the freeze warning seems warranted.
145 PM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018 High pressure builds into the area today into Sunday with seasonably cold weather continuing and a few mainly mountain flurries or light snow showers.
153 PM CDT Sat Apr 7 2018 High pressure over the region currently brining the area unseasonable cold temperatures will remain over the area through tonight. THe high will shift east of the area through the morning hours Sunday as low pressure moves into the plains. Models continue to show a clipper system moving out of the plains in advance of the low. Sunday night will see southerly winds begin to bring warmer air into the area. Night time lows will still fall to around the freezing make but will not be as cold as this weekend.
" Broad upper level troughing with continuation of colder than normal temperatures looks to prevail much of the upcoming week. High pressure in wake of that system will bring dry weather Thu, then medium range models and ensembles continue to point to potential for large winter system affecting the Upper Great Lakes region Fri into Sat. Both blend of model qpf along with ensemble probabilities for exceeding over 1 inch of qpf point to potentially a significant system, though potential for warm layer aloft (shown by latest GFS and ECMWF) will ultimately determine extent of snow and/or sleet/freezing rain. An oblong area of high pressure will be moving into the terminal areas late tonight into early tomorrow morning, allowing for surface winds to slacken.
1231 PM CDT Sat Apr 7 2018 252 AM CDT Early morning water vapor imagery reveals a broad upper trough in place across the Great Lakes region while surface analysis shows an expansive area of high pressure that extends from the Canadian Prairies into the southern Great Plains. Ridge axis will build across the mid and upper Mississippi River Valley Sunday morning. Temperatures will only warm a few degrees more on Sunday than today, and light flow under the ridge will allow an afternoon lake breeze that will suppress temperatures near the lake front.
352 PM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018 Low pressure moves away tonight with high pressure for Sunday.
The high moisture content and strong jet dynamics aloft will create efficient precipitation processes. The exception to this will be out on the eastern end of the Palmer Divide where temperatures have remained cooler today, and a moist southerly flow over the cool surface temperatures may produce some freezing rain.
126 PM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018 Low pressure will move into the area today and bring showers and possible thunderstorms. The low will lift northeast of the area tonight. High pressure in the wake of the system will dominate briefly Sunday.
Slowly increasing clouds with southwesterly and gusty winds as cold front approaches this afternoon with a few SHRA ahead of it for the northern TAFs. A cold front along the Appalachian Chain to the central Gulf coast and Atlantic high pressure ridging west over the Florida Keys will move east and south. The waters will be sandwiched by a front to the north and high pressure to the south with winds south or southwest and becoming around 15 knots for the afternoon with some gusts.
Light precipitation chances return early in the week with weak low pressure. Otherwise, clouds will be on the decrease in the west as high pressure builds in. Mid-level troughing will dig in from the northwest tonight, and the resulting increasing in moisture, along with continued low- level northwest flow, should promote some scattered lake-effect snow showers late tonight near and north of I-80. The scattered lake-effect snow showers in the far north will continue into Sunday afternoon before the trough axis pushes east, and increasing ridging allows for a moisture decrease.
408 PM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018 A cold front is pushing across the southeastern United States this afternoon. Ahead of the front, a trough with showers and thunderstorms is making its way to through the northeastern Gulf of Mexico towards the peninsula of Florida. The low level jet is strongest north of the area, hence why the Storm Prediction Center keeps the marginal and slight risk areas north of Glades County and the lake this afternoon.
327 PM CDT Sat Apr 7 2018 1026 mb Canadian high pressure extending from the central Canadian prairies sse into the central plains, will drift se over IL by sunrise Sunday, and into the Ohio river valley by Sunday afternoon. Highs Sunday in the low to mid 40s central IL, and upper 40s southeast of I-70.
Convective band in the north Gulf is the wind shift frontal zone while the cold pool convection moving through SW MS and east-central LA is the thermal front where temperatures are in the lower 50s to upper 40s. Convection should wane with sunset and cold air should continue to advance south as high pressure builds overnight. Upper level trough lifts out rather quickly heading into Sunday with zonal flow becoming established over the forecast area, thereby limiting the cold air advection.
The area of low pressure that brought the gusty winds to the region will move east overnight leaving dry and slightly cooler conditions for Sunday.
347 PM CDT Sat Apr 7 2018 Yesterday's cold front sure didn't disappoint. The entire CWA saw below freezing temperatures this morning with lows in the lower to middle 20s across the northern zones. The post-frontal stratus has been slow to clear and many locations didn't rise above the freezing mark until this afternoon. Even so, it will be chilly and we would not be surprised if a few spots dip back to or even slightly below the freezing mark, though not as cold as last night. A cold front will follow late Sunday afternoon into the evening with a brief period of gusty northeasterly to easterly winds.
Exiting ridge to our east and an area of low pressure over southeast US are the predominant features of our region. However, the low is not expected to affect us as it moves to the east northeast and the extension of the moisture associated with the trough should remain north of the Keys.
613 PM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018 Low pressure pressure along a stationary front across the area will move northeast of the area this evening.
116 PM PDT Sat Apr 7 2018 A low pressure trough moving inland through California will bring patchy clouds and gusty westerly winds over the mountains and deserts through tonight, with a few light showers possible over the mountains of San Bernardino and Riverside Counties.
322 PM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018 An upper trough axis will finally swing through the forecast area this evening, but we're already seeing much drier air advect in from the northwest. With the sunshine, temps in the north have rebounded to around 40 degrees and will top out in the low to mid 40s over the next few hours. Tonight, Canadian high pressure will build southeast over Illinois and Indiana. Mid-level cloud cover will increase during the afternoon ahead of another wave of low pressure. Low pressure drops southeast over Iowa, and winds quickly swing southerly and advect in some warmer air ahead of the low.
351 PM CDT Sat Apr 7 2018 High pressure has shifted in and kept the cool air in place. This cooler air and snow cover will keep temperatures in the lower 40s this afternoon. A trough is positioned over the eastern half of the CONUS while a ridge is off to the west. Challenge - Precipitation chances and location for tonight into early Sunday A quick hitting trough is anticipated to come off of the Rockies on Sunday.
527 PM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018 Low pressure pressure along a stationary front across the area will move northeast of the area this evening.
136 PM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018 High pressure will move in through the rest of the weekend, but temperatures will remain well below normal. Drier air in the low levels will continue to work in from the northwest but some mid level moisture dropping down across the area will likely linger some mid level cloudiness into this afternoon. This will lead to good radiational cooling conditions, and temperatures should easily drop into the lower to middle 20s.
255 PM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018 High pressure and a seasonably cool airmass will remain in place across the region through Sunday.
205 PM PDT Sat Apr 7 2018 A low pressure trough moving inland through California will bring patchy clouds and gusty westerly winds over the mountains and deserts through tonight, with a few light showers possible over the mountains of San Bernardino and Riverside Counties.
306 PM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018 High pressure builds into the area through Sunday with cold weather continuing and a few mainly mountain flurries or light snow showers.
307 PM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018 Low pressure pressure along a stationary front across the area will move northeast of the area this evening.
1131 PM MDT Sat Sep 9 2017 Most showers/tstms this evening are expected to be over and near the higher terrain. Then more showers/tstms will develop in the afternoon hours over and near the higher terrain.
121 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will continue to build southeast across our region during the course of the weekend. This will allow for notably improved weather, and eventually warmer temperatures.
342 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 High pressure will build north of the area through Monday.
SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): 500mb ridge across west Texas and Hurricane Irma approaching southwest Florida today will provide subsidence across south Texas and the western Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. A few showers may develop offshore the lower Texas coast through the short term. Will extend the coastal flood statement and rip current statement for the coastal sections of the CWA today through tonight as long period swells across the western Gulf of Mexico continue to move towards the lower TX coast providing a high risk of rip currents in the surf and producing minor tidal overflow to near the dunes at local beaches near high tide.
247 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 An upper level low will exit across the maritimes today and tonight.
Rest of the forecast area will be in the lower-mid 50s, with the warmer temps in NW and west central IL. Also adjusted surface winds for early tonight as the 00z ILX sounding indicated a 20 knot wind in the lowest 2,000 feet. The wind also help keep temperatures about 10 degrees warmer than eastern IL where winds will drop off quicker. Expansive high pressure area over the Great Lakes will keep us quiet for the rest of the weekend.
252 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017 Broad UA ridging extending from the Southern Rockies to across the Southern Plains early this morning, has resulted in northerly flow aloft dominating across the Four-State Region. Concurrently, sfc ridging draped from the northeastern CONUS to across east TX will aid in maintaining northerly-northeasterly sfc winds, whilst a slightly tightened pressure gradient this aftn /and again tomorrow aftn/ may result in wind speeds of 10-15 mph. Given the aforementioned synoptic and mesoscale features, a continued cool airmass will remain in place, with daytime temps only warming into the lower to middle 80s today and tomorrow /some 5-8 degrees shy of seasonal norms/.
429 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017 Latest surface analysis showed a 1030mb high over the Great Lakes region with an associated ridge axis extending southeast to Texas.
1108 PM MDT Sat Sep 9 2017 Latest upper analysis showed troughs over the east and west coasts with a ridge over the central CONUS. At the surface a trough was becoming better defined over MT/WY and the western Dakotas with high pressure centered over the Great Lakes region. Diurnal heating and the low level moisture have combined to push the MLCAPE to 500-1000J/KG over parts of western and central South Dakota this afternoon, however is appears that the CIN is strong enough to keep convection from developing over the forecast area this afternoon and evening. On Sunday, the upper ridge will rebuild over the region. High temperatures will be around 10 degrees warmer than average.
Large area of strong high pressure providing clear skies. clear skies will continue today and tonight as that area of high pressure holds overhead. with temps just a bit warmer. with overnight lows cooling into the low to mid 40s tonight.
333 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017 The short term concern is shower/thunder potential moving across the cwa associated with upper trough. Models indicate this to move east and gradually weaken as the trough moves east into the ridge over the Great Lakes.
As Irma exists eastward across the CONUS, the high which has been dominating the flow aloft in an unfavorable pattern for rainfall will finally shift south/southwestward.
306 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 High pressure will continue to build into the area today and strengthen through the upcoming work week.
246 AM PDT Sun Sep 10 2017 Low pressure will develop off the Southern California Coast today, then lift slowly north through midweek. The low will increase moisture and the chance of showers and thunderstorms over the region today.
209 AM PDT Sun Sep 10 2017 Low pressure off the California coast will continue to bring chances for thunderstorms for the southern Sierra today.
332 AM MDT Sun Sep 10 2017 High pressure ridge aloft now centered over Colorado with a light westerly flow aloft.
543 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017 A mostly dry forecast will continue as high pressure centered just east of the area will provide a dry northerly flow. A low pressure system off the CA coast will be influenced by an upper level trough that will deepen over the Pacific Northwest mid week.
156 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017 155 AM CDT Quiet weather will continue with clear skies through mid-day Monday as our strong upper ridge keeps the upstream wave across the upper Midwest away and limits the northeast progression of Irma.
400 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017 (Today and Tonight) Latest analysis shows upper ridge remaining anchored over west Texas early this morning, with Hurricane Irma heading northwest toward the Florida Keys, and an upper low off the southern California coast. At the surface, a ridge extends southwestward from the Mid-Mississippi Valley down into central Texas.
301 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017 Little change from persistence/going forecast with highs edging slightly warmer each day.
556 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017 The short term concern is shower/thunder potential moving across the cwa associated with upper trough. Models indicate this to move east and gradually weaken as the trough moves east into the ridge over the Great Lakes.
425 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 High pressure, with cool, dry air, dominates through tonight.
Weak and stacked upper level low sitting over NE SD this evening still kicking off a few showers in the far east. This low will not move much overnight. An upper level trough currently over the region will slowly push eastward tonight through Sunday morning. The upper level trough will be located over western MN by 18Z Sunday with dry and warm conditions over the CWA. Most of the extended looks warm and dry with an upper ridge in place.
410 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 High pressure will continue to build into the area today and strengthen through the upcoming work week.
Substantial warming can be expected tomorrow as high pressure builds over northern California and light offshore flow develops.
324 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017 Mostly sunny days and mostly clear nights will continue across Southeast Texas for at least a couple more days with high pressure in control. Temperatures the last several days have been unseasonably cool, and this morning's readings (as of 3 AM) range from the low to mid 60s well inland to the lower 70s at the coast (normal low temperatures for September 10th range from the low to mid 70s inland to the mid to upper 70s at the coast).
211 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 High pressure with dry and cool weather dominates remainder of the weekend. Strong Canadian high pressure will continue to feed cool and dry air on northeast breezes through Sunday. High pressure will relinquish its grip on the region in response to the north northwestward push of Irma towards the Tennessee Valley. With the track of Irma forecast a bit further to the west, then curling southwestward into the lower Mississippi Valley, wind and rain effects here are getting slightly downplayed from previous days for our area.
314 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 Dry weather is expected through Monday under high pressure.
552 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 Large area of high pressure will stall over the region through the beginning of the week. Winds will remain light out of the east around the high. 06Z MSAS Analysis places the center of the sprawling +1030mb anticyclone directly over the Saginaw Bay region. Main composite 500-300mb ridge axis will nudge from Wisconsin this morning to southeastern Michigan later today.
331 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 High pressure centered over the southern Great Lakes will keep dry conditions over the Ohio Valley today. As mid-level ridging moves to the east on Monday, the remnants of Hurricane Irma will move north into the Tennessee Valley.
330 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 High pressure over the Great Lakes will drift east early this week and become nearly stationary over New England.
347 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017 Weather across the Midwest remains mild and dominated by a 1032mb high pressure centered over lower Michigan this morning. Moisture streaming into the region as the remnants of Irma break into the ridging in the northeastern US turns into precip chances in the models for the last few runs up and down the Ohio River Valley. Temperatures are a little modulated in that time frame as well under shower chances, narrowing the diurnal swing with slightly cooler days/warmer nights.
325 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017 As of 08z Sunday morning, the cutoff upper low across the northern Plains continues to rotate about its axis. At the sfc, high pressure continues to reside across the Great Lakes region.
351 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 High pressure, with cool, dry air, dominates through tonight. Stacked high pressure over the Great Lakes will keep the tranquil weather going this period. Temperatures close to previous and converged guidance in this benign pattern, with a ridge/valley split on lows tonight. High pressure will relinquish its grip on the region in response to the north northwestward push of Irma towards the Tennessee Valley. With the track of Irma forecast a bit further to the west, then curling southwestward into the lower Mississippi Valley, wind and rain effects here are getting slightly downplayed from previous days for our area.
358 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 06Z MSAS Analysis places the center of the sprawling +1030mb anticyclone directly over the Saginaw Bay region. Main composite 500-300mb ridge axis will nudge from Wisconsin this morning to southeastern Michigan later today.
This was due a high pressure dome over the Great Lakes and Hurricane Irma southeast. The highest threat and potential dangers and dependent on the path of Irma. Wind speeds have been increased and will be the highest in east central Alabama.
Warm and dry conditions will persist through Monday as high pressure holds over the area.
Sunday night and Monday: Ridge will be centered in southern Colorado with weak northerly flow aloft. An isolated thunderstorm or two is possible during the afternoon on Monday in eastern Colorado; however, inhibition will be quite high as the ridge will be the dominant factor.
134 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 High pressure over the region will lead to dry conditions and seasonably cool temperatures through Monday. With a little bit of airmass modification, highs on Sunday will generally be in the lower 70s. High pressure residing over the Eastern Great Lakes will allow dry weather to persist on Monday.
146 AM MDT Sun Sep 10 2017 07z surface analysis had trough from eastern MT into eastern CO.
Minor changes were performed on temps and the present short term forecast appears on track as overnight lows dip into the 50s except in the upper 30s and 40s across the higher elevations.
544 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 Dry weather is expected through Monday under high pressure.
145 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 High pressure over the central Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley will remain in place through the weekend.
214 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017 Thru Tue the mid level ridge will remain to NW-W of the CWFA thereby maintaining NE-N mid level flow. Models hint that mid level moisture may finally wrap around the wrn periphery of ridge Sat-Sun and that temps will cool off on Sun.