Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper low moving across the Pacific northwest this evening and overnight. Main area of rain with isolated thunderstorms this evening is over northeast Oregon moving northward into southeast Washington and is associated with a jet streak moving through the upper low. Otherwise expect additional showers into the overnight period as a short wave and axis of the upper low move across the region. Another upper low seen on water vapor imagery further offshore will follow quickly behind this one and bring additional rainfall Monday along with continued breezy southwest winds.
323 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 A back door cold front will move southwestward across central NC early this morning.
the associated cool front will merge with the lee trof and cross the fcst area late this afternoon and tonight. The morning will probably be a bit breezy as the expanding/deepening BL mixes down leftover winds from the low-lvl jet. Lows will be 8-15F warmer than normal.
510 AM CDT Mon Oct 31 2016 Cold front stalled across the region will begin to move north later today as a warm front with afternoon temperatures climbing back into the both today and tomorrow. Normally temperatures to start the month of November should be in the upper 60s, so we will start out the new month much warmer than normal.
Deepening low pressure still expected to cross the northern Plains into southern Canada in the next 24 hours. This will result in a tightening pressure gradient as high pressure moves east across the eastern Great Lakes. Hence increasing south winds will pull warmer air and eventually deeper low level moisture into southern WI. 925H temperatures will warm into the 6-10C range this afternoon which will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Also starting out much cooler this morning with 30s in the east along with patchy frost and fog.
410 AM MDT Mon Oct 31 2016 A cold front will move through NE UT and NW CO this morning and early afternoon. As this front moved into the KSLC area precipitation increased and cloud tops have grown cooler. The front eventually washes out this evening, then another progressive trough and cold front approach NE UT Tue afternoon.
149 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 Rain showers and drizzle will end this evening as low pressure moves off the New Jersey coast.
/issued 816 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2016/ A strong U/L ridge will persist over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida for the next couple of days with strong subsidence over the region.
1235 AM CDT MON OCT 31 2016 A cold front has drifted into the northern portions of AR and has moved through KHRO and KBPK. (ISSUED 634 PM CDT SUN OCT 30 2016 ) A cold front will drift into the northern portions of Arkansas tonight and could bring some occasional IFR and/or MVFR ceilings and visibilities after 06Z at KHRO and KPBK.
1116 PM MDT Sun Oct 30 2016 Upper level analysis has broad ridge across the central CONUS, with large trof moving into the Pac Northwest. At the surface, high pressure resides across the Northern Plains with a warm frontal boundary across eastern Wyoming. However, the latest runs of the HRRR, NAM and GFS are showing the possibility for a few showers from northeast WY into northwest SD overnight as the warm front moves through. Low pressure will pass north of the area Monday morning, dragging a dry cold front quickly across the area during the morning hours. Highs will range from the 60s over northeast WY and the Black Hills to the lower 80s across far south central SD. On average a trough will persist in the eastern Pacific with a ridge across the central CONUS through the period.
121 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 Aviation As high pressure settles over the Michigan tonight, skies will clear and temperatures will fall to the lower to mid 30s. Breezy conditions will develop Monday afternoon as the high moves east and a cold front approaches the Great Lakes.
The upper level ridge centered over Texas has continued to strengthen and build east this evening. The high will continue to keep the front from reaching the local area. Temperature wise, we were slightly warmer than what was forecast earlier but now we are slightly cooler but the blended models have tried to hold onto the warmer trend. Thinking that the clouds won't have much an impact on the lows and have kept them as is, if not a degree lower in some locations due to the quick cooling we have been seeing with the light winds/clear skies. The dry wx pattern will continue thru this period along with highs about 20 degrees above normal, thanks to strong upper ridging.
A warm front will push into southwest North Dakota tonight. The bulk of the moisture and the best chance for rain appears to remain across northern North Dakota through most of the day along the northern edge of the trough.
115 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 A cold front will move through the area Monday and Monday night and be followed by high pressure returning for the middle of the week.
422 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 Drier weather and cooler than normal temperatures are in store for Monday. The middle of the week will once again turn much warmer than normal and remain dry due to high pressure along the East Coast.
308 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 An upper level trough and associated cold front will move through the area late today into tonight.
250 AM CDT Mon Oct 31 2016 Areas of fog were impacting much of the Ozarks this morning as high pressure slides east of the area and southerly winds return low level moisture to the area. This will also bring a return of temperatures in the lower 80s this afternoon.
We have seen a few gusts in the 50-80 mph range over the higher peaks, but mostly 40-50 mph in the higher wind prone spots. There is only slight cooling behind the trough, and with the sun and mixing the current forecast of highs in the 70s on the plains still looks good. With less wind and clearing skies this evening, temperatures will be cooler but still well above average.
High pressure building behind the low over Southwest Oregon will generate gusty south wind over the Willamette Valley and south Washington interior until sunrise. An upper level trough heads into Northern California this afternoon, maintaining a threat of showers through the evening.
220 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 A back door cold front will move south southwestward through the Southern Middle Atlantic states tonight through early Monday.
Latter half of the global model suites are still suggesting a pattern change developing across the SE region after mid week in advance of another cold front approaching from the nw. Subtropical ridge over the mid/srn Atlantic basins should begin to weaken/drift swd by Thu, as an upper trough axis begins to dive sewd across the Midwest/OH Valley states. Lingering rainfall should then quickly come to an end Thu evening across the e as the front exits to the se and another large dome of high pressure out of the mid/srn PLains states begins to build ewd into much of the ern CONUS. Some cooler/drier air does look to stream back into the area from the n heading towards the end of the work week, with highs more in the lower/mid 70s and lows closer to the lower/mid 40s.
350 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 High pressure across the western Great Lakes will shift east tonight and be overhead for Monday.
627 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 An upper level trough and associated cold front will move through the area late today into tonight.
617 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will gradually build eastward into New England today.
All model guidance shows this taking place, accompanied by mean layer drying with some slight strengthening of the low level easterlies tonight. mid-level anticyclone builds aloft of the state Tue, then retrogrades into the gulf mid week. Great Lakes trough digs well south into FL by late Fri and shifts east of the state Sat, possibly briefly cutting off.
the associated cool front will merge with the lee trof and cross the fcst area late this afternoon and tonight.
250 AM PDT MON OCT 31 2016 A weak upper trough will pass to our north tonight with a slight chance of showers across the NRN San Joaquin Valley and into Yosemite National Park. An upper ridge will provide seasonal temperatures and dry conditions.
348 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 As high pressure travels east through the Great Lakes today and tonight, a warm front will move northeast into the region.
646 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 As high pressure travels east through the Great Lakes today and tonight, a warm front will move northeast into the region.
Significant mid-level warming will take place today as low pressure lifts from North Dakota to NW Ontario. Strengthening gradient at the surface as the lower portion of the warm conveyor shifts overhead will prevent much in the way of nocturnal cooling.
509 AM CDT Mon Oct 31 2016 High pressure over E TX/LA/MS dominating the weather with light winds and mostly clear skies early this morning. The ridge over the area will be weakening and shifting east which will allow the deeper moisture pooled over the Gulf to the east of the upper shear axis near Brownsville to nose up into the Matagorda Bay region late this afternoon which could lead to some isolated showers there.
407 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 Ridging aloft will continue through the short term.
211 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 A cold front slipping south of the area overnight, returns as a warm front Monday night.
617 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 High pressure across the western Great Lakes will shift east tonight and be overhead for Monday.
A deep layer mean anticyclone was centered over the western Gulf of Mexico, and building slowly eastward. Currently, air temperatures in most Keys island communities were in the mid 70s, with dewpoint temperatures in the lower to mid 70s. High temperatures likely will be in the lower 80s, similar to Sunday.
252 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will gradually build eastward into New England today.
643 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 High pressure building in this morning will allow for plenty of sunshine and cooler than normal temperatures today.
144 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 Drier weather and cooler than normal temperatures are in store for Monday. The middle of the week will once again turn much warmer than normal and remain dry due to high pressure along the East Coast.
316 AM CDT Mon Oct 31 2016 Upper air analysis this morning reveals mid-level ridging across the Central CONUS. A tap of high-level moisture is resulting in plenty of cirrus pivoting around the western and northern flanks of this ridge, and these clouds will periodically invade the sky through the day. High pressure shifts east into the southeastern CONUS tonight.
A cold front is located at our northern border across KY and SW VA, and the model concensus is that it will stall before it crosses the TN border, then lift back to the north this afternoon as the 850 mb high shifts from AL this morning to SC by 00Z.
140 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 High pressure across the western Great Lakes will shift east tonight and be overhead for Monday.
121 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 A cold front will push south through the area today and tonight, bringing a chance of showers. As high pressure travels east through the Great Lakes Monday into Monday night, the old frontal boundary will move back northeast as a warm front. Weak cold front pushing south of the Ohio River will continue south into the TN Valley by morning. Based on clouds have tweaked temperatures a little warmer with lows from the lower 40s north to the lower 50s far south. Surface cold front is currently pushing through the CWA and is just past KDAY with a weak line of showers out ahead. As this happens Monday the cold front that was just south of the area will stall and wash out. As this happens a warm front will slowly pull north as well.
332 AM CDT Mon Oct 31 2016 (Today and Tonight) The upper ridge will begin working east today and tonight. Lee trough will become stronger with south winds of 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts across the Concho Valley and Big Country. Low level moisture will increase tonight with dew points rising into the lower 60s.
119 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 An upper level trough and associated cold front will move through the area Monday/Monday night.
Did lower the lows a little, mainly in the east as well. Upper ridge will remain over the central plains today and tonight followed by gradual height falls on Monday as the next system enters the Pacific northwest. At the surface, lee trough will strengthen in eastern Colorado resulting in increasing south to southwesterly winds tonight and Monday, especially in western portions of the area. Another cold front will move through late Monday afternoon with winds shifting to northerly. Temperatures will warm into the lower to middle 80s ahead of the front Monday afternoon. From the start of the extended, in the upper levels, a low closes off over the southwestern states while a ridge dominates the High Plains region into the weekend. High temperatures will reach the lower 70s and maintain during this time.
while weak cold front has dropped well to the south into southern Kentucky and the Ozarks. As the high shifts further away, winds will gradually veer to the southeast by this afternoon. With winds becoming more southerly and increasing due to a tightening pressure gradient, temperatures tonight will be considerably warmer than in recent nights.
503 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the central U. with troughs in New England and another on the west coast. Models suggest that a mainly zonal pattern will give way to a building ridge from the plains into central Canada.
456 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 High pressure building in this morning will allow for plenty of sunshine and cooler than normal temperatures today.
332 AM CDT Mon Oct 31 2016 Strong high over the Atlantic is providing strong ridging which will continue the dry spell.
Timing of low pressure system into our area is a bit different with ECMWF a bit faster than other models.
334 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the central U. with troughs in New England and another on the west coast.
410 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 High pressure over the Great Lakes will advance down the east slopes of the Appalachians today and tonight behind a cold front.
A weak cold front over northwest Utah will settle into central Utah Wednesday.
640 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016 A typical August afternoon is underway today across the region, with temperatures in the low 90s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Tonight is looking rather similar to last night/this morning, with widely scattered elevated convection expected by morning as the low level jet increase over the region. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s, with a bit of patchy ground fog possible by morning. Wednesday looks quite similar to today, with isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms and temperatures in the low to mid 90s.
suggesting slightly warmer overnight temps and reduced early morning fog potential. The warm core, mid-level cyclone over the northeast Gulf of Mexico will meander in a general northwesterly direction over the next several days, eventually settling over the Mid-South.
The first will be the high temperatures during the afternoon which may affect aircraft performance -- temperatures are expected to reach into the upper 90s to around 100 from the Houston Metro sites inland to KCLL and KUTS. As noted via previous forecasts, the main culprit for the higher heat indicies/increased rain coverage appears to be the shifting of the upper low from the NE Gulf coast westward to the NCentral Gulf coast the last day or so. And so the combination of this feature with the upper low over situated over LA (and the proximity of the very high PWs) will likely sup- port at least chance POPS in the grids Sat/Sun.
Flow through the delta has been weaker this evening with temperatures running a little bit warmer over the interior. This should lead to slightly cooler temperatures around the Sacramento region on Wednesday with places further inland staying near the same. The broad trough remains over the west coast on Wednesday.
Slightly drier and hotter conditions will develop late this week into this weekend as an upper level ridge strengthens along the Carolina coast. South-southeast flow in the lowest 10k ft helped to concentrate showers and storms over the western piedmont early this evening. Overnight temps in the low and mid 70s. As mid-upper level ridge extends inland from offshore, should see a decrease in coverage of afternoon convection, especially east of highway 1. Based on max temps in the upper 80s NW to the lower 90s in the east, and anticipation of less convection, have adjusted max temps up a couple of degree from previous forecast. The upper level ridge is forecast to continue to build westward from the western Atlantic into the southeastern and southern mid-Atlantic states mid to late week.
756 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016 An area of low pressure near the FL panhandle will drift westward over the next few days allowing Bermuda high pressure to ridge into the southeastern states. scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may linger tonight in the moist southerly flow but coverage should diminish with the loss of heating and h5 ridging building into the area from the east. Clouds and boundary layer mixing should hold overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Surface and upper level ridge off the North Carolina coast extending west into east South Carolina. Upper level low over the gulf coast and Florida retrograding to the west.
530 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2016 Upper low across Pac NW continues to slide eastward into the nrn Rockies. Dewpoints across SCntrl SD are in the low 70s and are sliding northwestward into NW SD where dewpoints are currently in the 50s. Cooler and drier air will push into the region on the backside of the low.
High pressure will again keep winds and waves in check through Wednesday night.
Line of scattered storms continues to develop in the southwest flow over the higher terrain. so suspect storms may transition to the plains over the Cheyenne ridge or northern colorado.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 91 75 90 / 20 50 20 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 90 74 90 / 20 40 20 50 Oak Ridge, TN 73 90 74 90 / 20 30 20 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 88 71 88 / 20 30 20 50.
Weak ridge axis overhead with little to no pressure gradient in place will lead to weak wind field throughout the forecast period.
The weather forecast across central Alabama will continued to be dominated by the affects of a broad area of low pressure along the Gulf coast. The path of the low's drift is forecast to remain largely to central Alabama's west, which would keep us on a presumably wetter sectorwith a deep southerly and southeasterly flow.
Still watching sct convection propagating SW across Wcntrl MS this evening along a well-defined outflow bndry and on the NW periphery of the upper low spinning over the NE Gulf. with the NE Gulf upper low expected to continue drifting W towards Srn Plaquemines Parish/Ncntrl Gulf expected to fire more sct convection farther E over the lower MS Valley and possibly affecting NE and possibly the Ern portions of Ncntrl LA.
849 PM PDT Tue Aug 9 2016 A deep and slow moving low pressure system will move across the area through Wednesday. This low will bring cooler temperatures and the threat of showers and thunderstorms.
Current Situation and Analysis -- An appraisal of Doppler radar data over the last several hours revealed that outflow initially from Cuban sea-breeze thunderstorms moved quickly northward over the lower Straits, initiating a second-generation cluster of storms, which, in turn, migrated quickly northward, generating additional outflow that merged with other developing cells in the vicinity of the lower Keys, leading to some upscale growth and a meso-beta scale convective system.
1140 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016 A typical August afternoon is underway today across the region, with temperatures in the low 90s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Tonight is looking rather similar to last night/this morning, with widely scattered elevated convection expected by morning as the low level jet increase over the region. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s, with a bit of patchy ground fog possible by morning. Wednesday looks quite similar to today, with isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms and temperatures in the low to mid 90s.
952 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016 High pressure will build off the Mid Atlantic coast and bring warmer temperatures and more typical late day and evening showers and thunderstorms possible through the remainder of the week. Thus, expect dry wx aftr midnight with lows in the lower to mid 70s. Conditions become more summer-like Wed/Thu with Bermuda sfc hi pres and building western Atlantic ridging aloft. Lee trof along with lcl seabreeze bndrys should be the trigger for sct diurnal convection.
Bermuda Ridge axis over the FL Straits will interact with a weak low pressure system over the FL Panhandle/NE GOMex Canaveral to generate a light to gentle S/SE breeze over the lcl Atlc overnight.
1130 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016 Surface cold front across southwest Ontario into northwest MN and eastern ND this afternoon will stall out and become nearly stationary across north-central MN this evening and overnight.
Evening water vapor satellite pics showing upper low center crossing into southwest MT. Shower and thunderstorm activity has remained close to the low center so it has exited into MT this evening as well.
High pressure remains across the Great Lakes region this afternoon. This humidity and warmer temperatures for tomorrow are the main forecast drivers in the short term forecast. Main forecast question is the short term are the high temperatures and potential heat indices tomorrow across the area. Latest round of guidance has slightly lower lows tonight across the area, with the ECMWF still being the highest. Tomorrow, guidance and dewpoints are slighly lower than previously forecast as the raw American models seem to be overdoing the moisture in the low levels. If the dewpoints are on trend to be warmer tomorrow, a heat advisory may be needed.
Low level moisture is there, but drier air aloft and general stability provided by upper ridging will again preclude all but the most minor sea breeze pop up showers. Additionally, dominant 500 mb high pressure over Texas will provide dry weather throughout the forecast period, with the exception of isolated streamer showers over the adjacent coastal waters tonight.
801 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2016 Upper low across Pac NW continues to slide eastward into the nrn Rockies. Dewpoints across SCntrl SD are in the low 70s and are sliding northwestward into NW SD where dewpoints are currently in the 50s. Cooler and drier air will push into the region on the backside of the low.
Otherwise, partly/mostly cloudy skies remain in place over much of the cntrl TN Valley this late Tue evening, as a weak upper ridge pattern remains fairly stagnant over the mid/srn Atlantic states. Temps overnight are still xpcted to fall into the lower/mid 70s range given dew pt trends in the 70s over much of the region. The main pcpn is now over MS associated with an inverted trof. The upper low along the Gulf coast and daytime heating will produce another round of sct shra/tsra mainly Wednesday aftn/evening.
An upper level trough stretched along much of the West Coast will maintain seasonable weather conditions through midweek. High pressure will then build over the region for the second half of the workweek and result in a gradual warming trend, especially inland. An upper level low over the Pacific Northwest continues to push east and is now over eastern Washington. The stratus cleared out as the low moved inland this morning. A weak trough extending southwest fron the low across our CWA will linger through Wednesday.