Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cooler upper 40s and lower 50s are likely for snow covered locations of Scott, Trego and Ellis counties.
High pressure to quickly shift across WI for Sat afternoon with warm advection beginning, but high temps only in the upper teens to lower 20s.
The upper pattern across North America was highly amplified, with a deep trough over the middle of the continent. Winds will diminish further with the ridge axis under mostly sunny skies for most of the daylight hours. The precipitation will taper off to flurries or freezing drizzle as the mid-level moisture strips off to the east. The highest snowfall totals will be across the north and far northeast.
618 PM CST Fri Mar 11 2022 (This evening through Saturday) By Saturday, our flow aloft will shift out of the northwest as an upper ridge builds across the western half of the country, while down at the surface southerly winds make a return across the Southern Plains. Saturday afternoons temperatures will start to return to more seasonably average for mid-March, but did go slightly warmer than NBM using the CONSMOS.
A low pressure system diving into the northern Great Lakes Region from central Canada will bring light snow chances tonight to portions of the area mainly east of the Mississippi River. Ahead of the associated surface warm front, model guidance shows a decent amount of isentropic lift around the 285 K surface.
This high pressure will slide to the east through the day, leading to the return of southerly winds to much of the area by this afternoon and early evening.
1025 PM MST Fri Mar 11 2022 20z surface analysis had high over the Dakotas with trough from central MT into southeast WY. Baroclinic zone along trough less productive than this morning, but still showing signs of of leftover -shsn per radar. Water vapour had upper ridge building into the northwest CONUS. Tonight, upper ridge builds eastward with robust low level warm air advection. Saturday, upper ridge builds into the northern plains as warm front moves into the eastern Dakotas courtesy of low pressure over central Canada.
This will bring a quick end to the snow as the main plume of moisture will be shoved toward the east as the impressive trough digs into western Ohio. Latest model data indicates that winds will become optimal this afternoon, coinciding nicely with the passage of the trough axis. Expect the snow showers to develop in the usual places, the I-80 corridor and the ridges. Snow showers will become more numerous with the trough swinging through, but development will be impeded with the lack of deeper moisture. The strongest gusts will be over the ridge tops, where winds should stop just short of advisory criteria.
A strong cold front will pass through the Florida Keys and its coastal waters late this afternoon or early evening preceded by a few gusty squalls. A prefrontal trough racing southward in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida will approach the Keys this afternoon or evening. Winds will slowly ramp up today ahead of the brief prefrontal trough with winds initial 15 to 20 mph, then 20 to 25 mph by this afternoon over the local waters and the Keys. The front will advect a cooler air mass into the region. Saturday overnight low temperatures across the island chain will be near the lower 60s.
Observations away from the coast are showing light and variable winds, suggesting a decoupling in the lowest levels from the more breezy conditions that continued through the day with good mixing. Breezy SSW winds continue overnight as an area of low pressure takes shape to the north. In association with the low, a cold front is expected to move across Florida today, with a line of thunderstorms expected to impact area terminals. The highest impacts should be brief in nature, as captured by the short-fused TEMPOs.
These chilly temperatures will continue this weekend with highs today struggling to reach freezing despite clearing skies and ample sunshine by afternoon. Luckily, this cold snap will be short lived as an upper level ridge rapidly builds across the Gulf Coast into the Tennessee Valley.
Clear skies have taken over, and temperatures have dropped into the lower to mid 20s across the region. Highs this afternoon will reach the lower 60s in the west, and will be in the mid and upper 50s across central and northern Oklahoma.
GAH Afternoon update (3pm): Main change to the forecast was to upgrade the High Wind Watch to a Warning for southwest Phillips county. A warm front will move through the region tonight, keeping temperatures from falling much (if at all) overnight, and in some spots rising. It'll definitely feel a lot warmer across Northeast Montana on Saturday. However, the winds will crank up across the area ahead of a relatively weak cold front that moves through in the afternoon and evening. The higher elevations of the Little Rockies and the Big Sheeps should see the strongest winds.
On the backside of the upper trough, much colder arctic air and gusty winds will takeover for today. At the surface, expansive high pressure will expand into the area allowing for mostly dry weather for the short term. As the center of the high, which will be tracking across the SE states, advances eastward, winds will shift to southeasterly tonight.
/Today through Friday/ Primary messaging highlights: * Cool again today, then above normal temperatures through the rest of the week * Little to no precipitation until the end of the coming work week The night started with the deep PV trough, noted tropospheric lowering, and dry, stable airmass exiting.
1002 PM CST Fri Mar 11 2022 (This evening through Saturday) By Saturday, our flow aloft will shift out of the northwest as an upper ridge builds across the western half of the country, while down at the surface southerly winds make a return across the Southern Plains. Saturday afternoons temperatures will start to return to more seasonably average for mid-March, but did go slightly warmer than NBM using the CONSMOS.
1255 AM EST Sat Mar 12 2022 Accumulating snowfall expected through the overnight as a cold front moves through.
This will bring a quick end to the snow as the main plume of moisture will be shoved toward the east as the impressive trough digs into western Ohio. Latest model data indicates that winds will become optimal this afternoon, coinciding nicely with the passage of the trough axis. Expect the snow showers to develop in the usual places, the I-80 corridor and the ridges. The strongest gusts will be over the ridge tops, where winds should stop just short of advisory criteria.
146 AM MST Sat Mar 12 2022 Western CONUS ridge will shift east, allowing for much milder air to push back into the region. The next upper trough will then support another round of WAA across the region Sun, with 50s and some 60s toward central SD expected for highs. Low pressure system will cross the region, supporting a cool front into the area with some light rain or snow showers late afternoon and evening west.
1044 PM CST Fri Mar 11 2022 Northwesterly flow continues with a cold high pressure progged to slide through the Northern Plains through the rest of today and overnight. Thus, high pressure along with mostly clear skies and snow cover, keep temperatures well below normal overnight. Winds shift from northwesterly to southerly (starting across south central SD) overnight as the high tracks through portions of MN. Southerly surface winds, and 850 mb ridging pulling in warm air advection (WAA) bring warmer temperatures, about 10 degrees either side of normal. Still some question as to how warm we get tomorrow, given the high pressure lingering over the eastern portions of the area and remaining snow cover.
935 PM PST Fri Mar 11 2022 Santa Ana winds will continue to subside while a ridge builds over the region from the west.
1058 PM MST Fri Mar 11 2022 Key Message: Cold temperatures expected tonight, with warmer conditions expected on Saturday. Midlevel height rises associated with the eastward progression of a ridge over the western states will favor the onset of warmer conditions on Saturday, with mostly sunny skies and dry conditions expected.
With high pressure centered over the southeast KS/southwest MO area, a tight gradient here is still producing some gusts upwards to around 30 mph at times. While this should relax some today, we like the Consshort depiction of a little higher overall average wind speeds/gusts through the bulk of the day, as that pressure gradient should be maintained until closer to mid afternoon or later, when the high pressure ridge shifts/nears the Tennessee Valley.
The cold front is already traversing our Plateau counties, and radar shows the precipitation to our west is progressing east toward our area on schedule.
948 PM MST Fri Mar 11 2022 Mostly clear skies over basins tonight allow for another night of efficient radiational cooling; however, overnight lows remain quite a bit warmer than the past two nights given a much milder near-surface air mass.
1030 PM MST Fri Mar 11 2022 High pressure will remain the dominant weather headline across eastern Utah and western Colorado for most of the next 36 hours. Those clouds are coming in over the top of the ridge along with a mild perturbation in the mean northwest flow that will initiate a few terrain driven snow showers in the northern mountains.
1047 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 Accumulating snowfall expected through the overnight as a cold front moves through.
Skies are mostly cloudy across the north and partly cloudy in the south this evening as moisture streams along the north side of an upper level ridge off to our west.
107 AM EST Sat Mar 12 2022 Accumulating snowfall expected through the overnight as a cold front moves through.
With the dry airmass still in place, temperatures will drop quickly this evening and it will be on the chilly side again tonight, but the breezes will remain up due to a low pressure trough residing across the area, and that will help keep temperatures from really cratering.
Gusts could reach 60 mph along mountain ridges and the higher foothills. Flow aloft weakens through the day as a ridge builds over the Great Basin. Temperatures will be warmer tonight after last night's very cold night.
Locally, we are in between airmasses and have rather dry air in the low levels.
Highs in northwest IA likely to climb into the lower to possibly mid 40s where there is no snow cover and central SD likely a touch above 50. Forcing and moisture aloft are a little weaker and lower and the low level moisture is also a little less.
Late season Arctic high pressure was centered over eastern KS early this morning. The airmass east of the ridge had single digit dewpoints and unseasonably cold temperatures in the single digits and teens locally. MSLP gradient between the 1031 mb high and 998 mb low pressure over the western Carolinas was producing northwest winds sustained 15-20 mph, gusting up to 30 mph at times. Aloft, 500 mb analysis showed a longwave trof extending from Hudson Bay southwest through eastern TX, with strong ridging along the west coast. These readings will be around 20-25 degrees below normal for mid March, and several degrees above record cold highs for the date which are in the lower 20s. This will bring a sharp warming trend to the region and as 850 mb temps approach +5C, we should see highs in the low/mid 50s.
The upper level trough that brought today's cold air will skirt eastward and will leave southwesterly winds in its wake. So most of the Lower peninsula should see some snow Sunday, especially between 12Z to 18Z. Warmer and Milder weather through the work week.
With the elevated winds, temperatures have not fallen too much yet with current temperatures ranging from the lower 30s in the Hill Country to the upper 30s to near 40 in the southwestern CWA. With the clear skies, once the winds do diminish in speed, temperatures should drop to or below freezing. With abundant sunshine, highs today in the upper 50s to lower 60s will lead to humidity values ranging from near 10 percent in the west to the lower 20s in the east. Another night of near or below freezing temperatures can be expected tonight with continued dry air and light winds overnight.
Snowfall totals are not expected to be very high, with the highest accumulations of 1 to 2 inches occurring within the northern Red River Valley. For tonight, warm air advection continues to bring our temperatures up to near freezing for some areas around midnight before falling slightly toward daybreak.
237 AM MST Sat Mar 12 2022 A warm front will lift across the region today as west winds increase. The High Wind Warning was maintained for SW Phillips County. The High Wind Watch was dropped for the remaining locations. A cold front on Sunday will deliver a chance for light rain and snow along with colder temperatures. High temperatures will range from the upper 20s along the immediate Canadian border to the lower 40s south of the Missouri River. Ensembles suggest upper ridging will become established once again across the western U.
Highs in northwest IA likely to climb into the lower to possibly mid 40s where there is no snow cover and central SD likely a touch above 50. Forcing and moisture aloft are a little weaker and lower and the low level moisture is also a little less. Sunday will see a wave approach from the west which will turn flow to a more southerly direction, with a bit of a warm front expected to develop across the area. Generally anticipate mid 40s near highway 14 to the lower to mid 60s in parts of northwest IA and northeast NE towards the MO River. The warm frontal forcing will strengthen on Sunday night but moisture will be a problem.
On the backside of the upper trough, much colder arctic air and gusty winds will takeover for today. At the surface, expansive high pressure will expand into the area allowing for mostly dry weather for the short term. As the center of the high, which will be tracking across the SE states, advances eastward, winds will shift to southeasterly tonight. This quick shift of flow will bring drastically warmer temperatures for Sunday when highs will get into the 50s again. Luckily, humidity values should stay above 40 percent so there shouldn't be much of a fire hazard concern with the winds and warmer temps.
With the trough axis swinging east through the region and strong high pressure building in from the west, clouds will continue to be shunted east of the CWA, giving way to sunny skies today.
High pressure will quickly shift across Wisconsin this afternoon. A surface warm front will move across Wisconsin Sunday, which will bring much warmer temperatures for the end of the weekend.
Very cold temperatures and light winds this morning will quickly moderate due to strong WAA, in response to an approaching clipper low as an upper-level ridge slides east into the Northern Plains. Southerly winds this morning will increase and shift southwesterly this afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens and a warm front tracks east across much of South Dakota. Inverted-v soundings and deep mixing will allow for widespread gusts of 30 to 45 mph this afternoon (blend of some of the higher guidance), strongest across central South Dakota, where the Wind Advisory has been expanded further into. Northwest winds may stay elevated this evening and tonight across northeastern SD, as a cold front moves through (not much CAA associated with it). Sunday night there is a low pressure system working over the northern plains.
A weak trough swings through the region mid-day, returning northwest flow and supporting a good afternoon sea breeze at the coasts.
333 AM CST Sat Mar 12 2022 The models show the cloudiness associated with a warm front across wrn and ncntl Nebraska moving rapid east this morning and clearing ncntl Nebraska by 21z. The temperature forecast continues to lean toward the warmer 75th percentile of the NBM for lows in the mid to upper 20s and highs mostly in the lower 60s. A fairly strong Canadian cold front backs into ncntl Nebraska Sunday night.
201 AM PST Sat Mar 12 2022 After a chilly start, it will turn a little warmer today as winds slowly turn back onshore. Some frost is likely in the lower lying areas before sunup. Winds will become rather strong and gusty over the mts/deserts then, while cooler and more moist air spreads into the coastal basin.
Temps will remain very cold today, with most locations reaching only the lower 30s, and just 25 to 30 east.
VFR will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours with high pressure building into the region. Surface winds will gradually diminish courtesy of this high.
Temperatures at the time of writing are in the low teens south of I-70 and in the single digits up north. Firstly, temperatures begin to rebound as winds turn out of the south this afternoon funneling warmer air from the southern CONUS into the region. Unfortunately, this will come a little too late to help Saturday highs which top out in the mid to upper 30s across E KS and W MO while north central MO struggles to make it above freezing. A trough rolling off the eastern Rockies Sunday invigorates the LLJ kicking the warm air advection into overdrive shoving temperatures into the high 50s and low 60s Sunday.
405 AM CST Sat Mar 12 2022 Very cold temperatures and light winds this morning will quickly moderate due to strong WAA, in response to an approaching clipper low as an upper-level ridge slides east into the Northern Plains. Southerly winds this morning will increase and shift southwesterly this afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens and a warm front tracks east across much of South Dakota. Inverted-v soundings and deep mixing will allow for widespread gusts of 30 to 45 mph this afternoon (blend of some of the higher guidance), strongest across central South Dakota, where the Wind Advisory has been expanded further into. Northwest winds may stay elevated this evening and tonight across northeastern SD, as a cold front moves through (not much CAA associated with it). Sunday night there is a low pressure system working over the northern plains.
Farther north across the snowpack, have continued the trend over undercutting the warmer guidance. This should lead to warmer lows across the FA with widespread 20s. In addition, as the lee trof deepens, gusty southerly winds will prevail during the day. The warmer highs, associated lower RH's, and strong winds support the notion of a higher fire danger threat on Sunday.
507 AM MST Sat Mar 12 2022 The strongest winds with the Front Range mountain wave have stayed over the higher elevations early this morning. These winds should continue for a few more hours, then fade as the flow aloft starts to diminish and the temperature profile gets less favorable due to warm advection in the low to mid levels. Drainage winds will help keep temperatures up in those areas, but some valley locations may not be much warmer due to the clear skies. This will also bring light snowfall to the areas in the high country. PoPs were updated to reflect the favorable moisture for the higher peaks.
424 AM MST Sat Mar 12 2022 With the breakdown of the highly amplified E. Pac ridge the upcoming pattern looks to be more progressive over the next 7-10 days. First however we get a break from wintery weather as a transitory ridge will be moving through over the next 24 hours.
Be prepared for variable travel conditions, particularly across the Kootenai/Cabinet and West Glacier regions, where sub-surface ground temperatures will support refreezing of untreated roadways. Skies will clear this afternoon as high pressure builds across the Northern Rockies. High temperatures will climb into the low 50s across western Montana and into the low 60s across lower elevations of central Idaho. The first in a series of pacific troughs will arrive Sunday morning, bringing a return of mountain snow and a wintry mix of precipitation across valley areas. Pockets of freezing rain are possible across the Flathead and Lincoln Counties, where cold ground temperatures will allow for water to refreeze onto roadways. Snow levels will drop into the 3,000-3,500 feet range Sunday afternoon as the cold front passes through.
Lows will be a bit warmer tonight that seen this morning.
High pressure aloft is seen on satellite this morning with ridging extending into the PAC NW. An upper trough looms further upstream, which should make landfall this evening. Models push the trough to the east late tomorrow night. A surface cold front will precede the upper trough, leaving a period of strong winds in its wake. Temperatures today and tomorrow will be in the upper 30s to the mid 40s across much of the lower elevations, so we may see some rain Sunday from Burley to Pocatello, or at least a mix. Snow amounts overall should stay below advisory criteria, since the trough appears to be moving fairly quickly.
Gusty winds will continue today as warmer air continues to push into the area.
Dry conditions and a warming trend will continue through today then slight cooling will take place on Sunday as a low pressure system passes to the north of the area.
The cold and dry nature of the air mass associated with the ridge had allowed temperatures to drop into the single digits in many locations around the area. Aloft, the pattern across the CONUS included a longwave trough progressing eastward toward the Ohio River Valley, and an upper ridge positioned over the western US. While temperatures will be warmer today than recent days, they will remain on the cool side of average for one more day before a more substantial warm up is noticed. The ridge aloft builds over the central US tomorrow as the next trough pushes inland over the Pacific Northwest.
313 AM MST Sat Mar 12 2022 With the breakdown of the highly amplified E. Pac ridge the upcoming pattern looks to be more progressive over the next 7-10 days. First however we get a break from wintery weather as a transitory ridge will be moving through over the next 24 hours.
High pressure builds over today and a warming trend gets underway.
With the dry airmass still in place, temperatures will drop quickly this evening and it will be on the chilly side again tonight, but the breezes will remain up due to a low pressure trough residing across the area, and that will help keep temperatures from really cratering. An upper low currently off the Pacific Northwest coast will push inland tomorrow morning and transition to an open wave. This trough will erode the weak upper ridge over the central CONUS. Warmer temperatures and low dewpoints will allow RH values to drop into the low teens to single digits creating elevated to low-end critical fire weather danger.
This will bring a quick end to the snow as the main plume of moisture will be shoved toward the east as the impressive trough digs into western Ohio. Latest model data indicates that winds will become optimal this afternoon, coinciding nicely with the passage of the trough axis. Expect the snow showers to develop in the usual places, the I-80 corridor and the ridges. The strongest gusts will be over the ridge tops, where winds should stop just short of advisory criteria. A Wind Chill Advisory may be necessary for some ridge zones overnight if some wind lingers.
Surface analysis places high pressure just to the west with surface winds remaining a bit gusty within the pressure gradient. Surface temperatures in the low to mid-teens is placing wind chills around zero at the top of the 09z hour. Mid to upper 20s will rise into the low to mid-30s by daybreak Sunday. Areas with an existing snow depth will likely be a touch cooler as some energy is sapped up by the snowmelt process.
Utah and southwest Wyoming will see dry conditions and temperatures near seasonal normals today as high pressure moves across the area. A fast moving trough will move across the area tomorrow, curbing the warming trend and bringing some rain and snow.
Sunday, expect temperatures to be a bit cooler with areas of snow or rain.
A strong cold front will push through the local waters of the Florida Keys this afternoon, possibly preceded by a brief, strong squall.