Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
301 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016 MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS MORNING CAUSING CONTINUED SNOWFALL FOR FAVORED AREAS. WEAK RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT BUT A MORE PRONOUNCED WAVE WILL BREAK IT DOWN VERY QUICKLY AS PRECIP LOOKS TO START NOON THURSDAY OVER ERN UT AND SPREADS ACROSS WRN CO THROUGH THE DAY. ALL MODELS SLOWED DOWN TROUGH WITH PRECIP STARTING A GOOD 6 TO 12 HRS LATER SO GOT POPS TO MATCH.
HIGH PRESSURE IS SPREADING OVER IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.
EXPECT A DRY AND MUCH COOLER AIRMASS TO SETTLE OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION AS WE GO THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMATIC AVERAGE.
/issued 324 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016/ A cold front continues to sink south through the region tonight and is currently located near the Pecos River Valley at the time of this discussion. The upper trough that has brought us several days of windy conditions will finally shift east tomorrow followed by a brief period of weak upper ridging through Thursday night.
301 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016 MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS MORNING CAUSING CONTINUED SNOWFALL FOR FAVORED AREAS. WEAK RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN EARLY TONIGHT BUT A MORE PRONOUNCED WAVE WILL BREAK IT DOWN VERY QUICKLY AS PRECIP LOOKS TO START NOON THURSDAY OVER ERN UT AND SPREADS ACROSS WRN CO THROUGH THE DAY. ALL MODELS SLOWED DOWN TROUGH WITH PRECIP STARTING A GOOD 6 TO 12 HRS LATER SO GOT POPS TO MATCH.
916 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016 AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE OF FL, PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT, AND SE WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY. /ISSUED 331 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016/ A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
522 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016 COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA SO EXPECT NORTHELRY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
1026 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016 A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY. COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PUSH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WARM IN THE LOW 70S MOST AREAS WITH STRONG SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW/RESULTING WARM ADVECTION. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BECOME COOLER BEGINNING THURSDAY AS THE FRONT IS OFF TO THE EAST.
/issued 352 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016/ (Today and Tonight) Dry and cool weather will prevail today as cold air advection continues behind a cold front that moved south across the area overnight. Despite full sunshine, cold air advection will result in a chilly day, with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 40s north, to the lower 50s south. The colder MET guidance looks reasonable and went close to it for overnight lows, with most areas dropping off into the lower and middle 20s by daybreak Thursday.
653 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016 A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY. COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PUSH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WARM IN THE LOW 70S MOST AREAS WITH STRONG SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW/RESULTING WARM ADVECTION. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN BECOME COOLER BEGINNING THURSDAY AS THE FRONT IS OFF TO THE EAST.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS BROAD TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE JUST MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. WESTERN RIDGE WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES AND NOSE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL MAINTIAN A VERY DRY AIRMASS AND NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTN. /ISSUED 422 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016/ THE 09Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES OUR COLD FRONT HAS REACHED A BPT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH TODAY AHEAD OF SFC RIDGING BUILDING SE INTO THE SRN PLAINS FOR SOME OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL NEAR/BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT DESPITE SOME NW WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE REGION. AMPLIFYING THE TROUGH FARTHER S ACROSS TX TONIGHT. CANADIAN SFC RIDGING TO OUR W OVER TX WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THURSDAY.
THE COLDER AIR MASS THAT SETTLED INTO THE AREA HAS RESULTED IN FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER DESERTS EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND BY THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES OVER THE AREA.
TODAY'S TEMPERATURES NOT MUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE MORNING CLOUD COVER. GENERALLY NO MORE THAN 5-7 DEGS F WARMER. UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO WARM WITH THE WEST COAST RIDGE NEARING THE STATE. COULD SEE RIDGE TOP AND FOOTHILL GUSTS IN THE 30-40KT RANGE. ON EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE AND ON THE CHEYENNE RIDGE ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER. COLDEST READING ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER AND IN THE HIGH MTN VALLEYS.
910 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016 UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 64 35 49 28 / 90 10 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 35 45 25 / 90 10 10 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 64 35 45 26 / 80 10 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 62 35 44 24 / 100 10 10 0.
429 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016 MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS MORNING CAUSING CONTINUED SNOWFALL FOR FAVORED AREAS. WEAK RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN EARLY TONIGHT BUT A MORE PRONOUNCED WAVE WILL BREAK IT DOWN VERY QUICKLY AS PRECIP LOOKS TO START NOON THURSDAY OVER ERN UT AND SPREADS ACROSS WRN CO THROUGH THE DAY. ALL MODELS SLOWED DOWN TROUGH WITH PRECIP STARTING A GOOD 6 TO 12 HRS LATER SO GOT POPS TO MATCH.
WHICH ARE ABOUT 10 OR SO DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH.
EXITING THE RIDGES EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO ACCOMPANY THE COLDER AIR AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AND RIDGES. MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION THIS MORNING.
622 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016 A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY.
557 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016 A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS FORMING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME ALL SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP TOWARD FREEZING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. SOME COLDER AIR WAS BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THIS LOW. UPSTREAM RIDGE WITH LOW LEVEL/8H COLD POOL AT GREATEST EXTENT THU AM.
1031 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016 A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY.
/ISSUED 331 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016/ A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS COMING WEEK.
403 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016 A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF OF THE COAST THIS MORNING AND USHER IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WORTH OF SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS SE TEXAS.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT OVER OREGON WILL TRAVERSE IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS S TX WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AS WELL. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPS.
1027 PM MST SUN NOV 22 2015 SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WY AND THE NORTHERN NE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING.
500 AM EST MON NOV 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THIS MORNING. WARM FRONT SCOOTS PAST THIS EVENING.
At 00z Monday a 500mb trough extended from the Upper Great Lakes to the Tennessee Valley. A 500mb ridge axis was located along the western United states.
233 AM EST MON NOV 23 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON MONDAY AND BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT.
BREEZY WINDS (GUSTS 20-30 KTS) WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA, THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE AFTN/EVE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
1236 AM EST MON NOV 23 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON MONDAY AND BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT.
A WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALLOWING FOR MUCH WARMER AIR TO BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE STATE TOWARD LATE IN THE DAY. WITH TEMPERATURES ALSO STARTING OUT MUCH WARMER THAN ON SUNDAY MORNING. WITH COOLER TEMPS IN THE 30S STILL ACROSS THE DEEPER SNOWPACK IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
1240 AM EST MON NOV 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
Pressure gradient is currently tighter ahead of this trough so winds this morning will be higher than this afternoon, after the trough passes through and sfc ridging begins to build into the area. Will see some warmer temps today, which will melt some of the snow, but without any good waa on the sfc and still fairly good snow pack in the north and northeast, the warmer temps will be limited to mostly areas south of I-74. Temps over the snow pack should still be above freezing, but overall below normal temps expected today. Main over level trof and short wave energy will be ne of IL over the Great Lakes region where more cloud cover expected. 00Z models continue to show upper level ridge building into IL and the ohio river valley Tue/Wed.
1222 AM EST MON NOV 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE PASSES MONDAY MORNING. WARM FRONT SCOOTS PAST MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MIDWEEK. COLD FRONT CROSSES TO END THE WEEK. THE UPPER TROF AXIS IS STILL TO THE WEST. THE UPPER TROF AXIS CROSSES TONIGHT WITH THE STRATOCU ERODING AWAY FROM NW TO SE. TRIED TO HIT THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS WITH SOME MID TEENS WHILE THE WARM RIVERS KEEP METRO SITES IN THE LOW 20S.
449 AM EST MON NOV 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OFFERING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AS A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
1230 AM EST MON NOV 23 2015 THERE ARE STILL SOME CLOUDS THAT ARE LINGERING IN THE FAR EAST KEEPING TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOME OF THE RIDGES MAY GET INTO THE ACT AS WELL. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTH.
435 AM EST MON NOV 23 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EASTWARD THIS MORNING. ON THE HEELS OF THE LOWER CLOUDS. EVEN WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.
345 AM CST MON NOV 23 2015 CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THUS FROST WILL BE OBSERVED UNTIL TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING. BUT AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON THE EVENING OF THANKSGIVING.
232 AM EST MON NOV 23 2015 BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE.
335 AM CST MON NOV 23 2015 MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE THIS MORNING FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
1225 AM EST MON NOV 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE STILL BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
943 PM MST SUN NOV 22 2015 A CLEAR NIGHT WILL FOLLOW TODAY'S BLUEBIRD SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION.
ATMOSPHERE HAS DECOUPLED UNDER STARRY SKIES AND A COLD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. /ISSUED 352 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
311 AM CST MON NOV 23 2015 UPPER RIDGE/MILD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE IN THE SHORT TERM.
1139 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2015 AVIATION DISCUSSION AS HIGH PRESSURE HAS TAKEN A FIRM HOLD ON OUR WEATHER.
304 AM EST MON NOV 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. XCP FOR A NARROW BAND/STREAMER OF SC INOVF BAY EXTENDING TO JUST OFF VA BCH/OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK (DUE TO COLDER AIR SPREADING OVR WARMER BAY/OCN WTRS). UPR LVL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE NE CONUS CST. LO TEMPS FM THE M20S ACRS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WITH 30S RIGHT AT THE CST (MAY EVEN SEE THE 1ST FREEZING TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST FOR PLACES LIKE ORF). LIGHT WINDS AND TURNING A LITTLE WARMER TUE WITH HI TEMPS 50-55F.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD FOR QUIET CONDITIONS. BUT MODELS SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS SPILLING INTO THE AREA WITH CURRENT WATER VAPOR/IR IMAGERY SHOWING SIGNIFICANT PACIFIC MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH MONDAY CHANGING UPPER WINDS OVER THE STATE FROM NORTHWEST TO ZONAL WESTERLY. WARM ADVECTION UNDER THE RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE LAST 24 HOURS. MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY'S READINGS.
309 AM CST MON NOV 23 2015 A northwest upper flow this morning is forecast to become zonal across the Central and Southern Plains as an upper level trough moves into the Pacific Northwest tonight. West to southwesterly winds will become light south to southeast as low pressure develops in the lee of the Rockies today. Southerly winds will increase tonight as the low pressure deepens and pressure gradient increases. Highs today should top out from the mid 50s in far northeast Kansas to the lower 60s near central Kansas.
1249 AM EST MON NOV 23 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EASTWARD THIS MORNING. EVEN WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.
342 AM EST MON NOV 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE FORCED SOUTH AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKES THIS EVENING.
8 PM READINGS WERE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S, HEADED TOWARD SUNRISE LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. EXPECT CLR SKIES THE NEXT 24 HRS AND CONTINUED VFR WX WITH RETURN FLOW PICKING UP MONDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. 8 PM READINGS WERE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S, HEADED TOWARD SUNRISE LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
AND WITH COOLER LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WILL SEE TEMPERATURES GENERALLY A TOUCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. TO AROUND 40 THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR AND THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT IN THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES AWAY INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF IOWA AND MINNESOTA. THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR EARLIER IN THE NIGHT.
AND WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE COMBO OF MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO MUCH WARMER MINIMUMS. VARIOUS ENSEMBLES MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SHOW CLOSED LOW EITHER LINGERING OR REDEVELOPING IN SOUTHWEST US. THE TWO SPECIFIC GFS MEMBERS WITH THE CLOSED LOW BRING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SIMILAR TO INITIALIZATION GRIDS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR EITHER FREEZING OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION LINGERING AND/OR REDEVELOPING DURING THE WEEKEND. SOME WEAK LEE TROUGHING IS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
A COLD FRONT. NOTHING SHOULD HINDER MIXING OF THE WINDS IN THE LOWEST LAYERS. IT WILL FEEL NICE TO GET THE HIGH HUMIDITY SCRUBBED AWAY FINALLY.
105 AM EST MON NOV 23 2015 COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD MID TO LATE WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SWING THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP WINDS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE MUCH WARMER LAKES WATERS. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S WITH WINDS AROUND 4 TO 7 MPH.
PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG PERSIST OVER THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND THIS SPREADS INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND TOWARD CENTRAL OREGON. FOR TOMORROW A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TWO STATE AREA AND SPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS OF DENSE FREEZING FOG WILL CREATE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF SITES ESPECIALLY KPDT.
335 AM EST MON NOV 23 2015 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT POSSIBLY CAUSING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA IN THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK.
AND TEMPO MVFR ALSO PSBL EAST COAST TERMINALS AS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. /ISSUED 600 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2015/ HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING THE LAKE. /ISSUED 331 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2015/ COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL POUR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. EVEN 50S WEST OF THE LAKE! DEWPOINTS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOWER- MID 60S THEN INTO THE 50S ON MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
/ISSUED 830 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2015/ 1025 MB RIDGE AXIS PLANTED RIGHT OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS SO CALM CONDITIONS WITHIN THIS DRY COLUMN. THE QUESTION OF THE EVENING REMAINS AS TO HOW MANY SITES WILL ACHIEVE THE FREEZING MARK AND FOR HOW LONG. HAVE EDGED MINIMUMS UP A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FREEZING. FREEZING FOR FOUR OF FIVE HOURS TOMORROW MORNING. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS THAT MANY WILL BOTTOM OUT A DEGREE OR FEW ABOVE FREEZING AROUND SUNRISE. AS THERE WILL BE A FEW RURAL LOCATIONS THAT FALL TO FREEZING. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH AFTERNOON TEMP READINGS ACHIEVING THE SLIGHTLY WARMER BELOW NORMAL LOWER 60S.
309 AM CST MON NOV 23 2015 Warming trend is well underway with highs expected to be several degrees warmer than yesterday.
1228 AM EST MON NOV 23 2015 COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A MOIST COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. A SHARP TROF AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ACRS THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT IS ALLOWING SOME PESKY STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP ACRS THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTN. WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH GIVING WAY TO SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
350 AM EST MON NOV 23 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS MORNING. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY.
SINCE MOST OF OUR COUNTIES AND PARISHES ALREADY EXPERIENCED FREEZING TEMPERATURES LAST NIGHT. FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT ONLY INCLUDES THOSE REMAINING THAT DID NOT HIT THE FREEZING MARK EARLIER THIS MORNING AND/OR WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG PERSIST OVER THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND THIS SPREADS INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND TOWARD CENTRAL OREGON. FOR TOMORROW A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TWO STATE AREA AND SPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS OF DENSE FREEZING FOR WILL CREATE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF SITES ESPECIALLY KPDT.
330 AM EST MON NOV 23 2015 AVIATION SECTIONS UPDATED HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMER THROUGH MID WEEK.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS BASICALLY SHOWING TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH RIDGING IN THE WEST. HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRED ALONG THE WEST COAST AND COULD SEE A MID LEVEL LOW UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
339 AM CST MON NOV 23 2015 SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL AS SFC RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
20Z OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN MN. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE SNOW PACK TO THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.
BY MID WEEK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THIS WAY SO LOOK FOR WARMER TEMPS EACH DAY AS WE GO INTO THANKSGIVING AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHWESTERN U.
322 AM EST MON NOV 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK.
1225 AM EST MON NOV 23 2015 CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP INTO THE 50S BY THANKSGIVING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
1150 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD AS AN INCOMING CLIPPER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY EVENING.
418 AM EST MON NOV 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. XCP FOR A NARROW BAND/STREAMER OF SC INOVF BAY EXTENDING TO JUST OFF VA BCH/OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK (DUE TO COLDER AIR SPREADING OVR WARMER BAY/OCN WTRS). UPR LVL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE NE CONUS CST. LO TEMPS FM THE M20S ACRS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WITH 30S RIGHT AT THE CST (MAY EVEN SEE THE 1ST FREEZING TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST FOR PLACES LIKE ORF). LIGHT WINDS AND TURNING A LITTLE WARMER TUE WITH HI TEMPS 50-55F.
CURRENT OBS SHOW TEMPS APPROACHING OR ALREADY BELOW FREEZING. HAVE DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST WHICH IS A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES. AS FREEZING CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY BEEN PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED IN ALL COUNTIES IN THE HUN CWA.
353 AM CST MON NOV 23 2015 HAND ANALYSIS OF THE 08Z MSL DATA SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WITH A BOUNDARY/FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS WYOMING AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THEN ALONG THE KANSAS-NEBRASKA BORDER TO THE IOWA-MISSOURI BORDER. THERE WAS ALSO A LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MINNESOTA-ONTARIO BORDER WITH A TROUGH DRAPED INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THERE WAS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. MODELS/GEFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS MORNING REGARDING THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS NOW TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING WILL ALSO BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30.
413 AM EST MON NOV 23 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EASTWARD THIS MORNING. ON THE HEELS OF THE LOWER CLOUDS. EVEN WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHED THE LOW TO MID 80S. A HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER CONDITIONS (OR LACK OF) THIS WEEK.
LOWS WILL BE QUITE MILD TONIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S. NEGATIVELY-TILTED H300 TROUGH AND 140KT JET STREAK WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA TOMORROW MORNING.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. NEXT LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM THE MID-WEST TO THE GREAT LAKES.