Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
320 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015 WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SFC ACROSS THE N GULF. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING OVER THE ARKLATEX. THE RIDGE ALOFT EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN A BIT OVER OUR REGION AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A LONGWAVE TROF DIGS SOUTH OVER THE EAST COAST. DEWPTS EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER IN THE LOWER/MID 70S DUE TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST. TIMING ON THIS WILL LIKELY BE JUST AFTER THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. NOT MUCH IF ANY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RETROGRADING WESTWARD AS THE LONG WAVE TROF BROADENS OVER THE C AND E U. THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS BACK EASTWARD OVER TX/LA. WITH THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS RESUMING.
BUT COVERAGE WILL DECREASE WITH A WEAKER FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 29/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WHILE AN UPPER LOW RESIDES OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. THAT ONE HAS CURRENTLY MOVED TO A POSITION NEAR SOUTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY AND IS HELPING TO SPARK STORMS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. AND A LARGE PART OF NORTHERN GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BY THIS WEEKEND THE HIGH SHOULD SHIFT TO NEARLY OVERHEAD OR JUST TO OUR EAST WITH WARMING TEMPS AND LESSER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS MOISTURE DECREASES.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW CIRCULATING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MANITOBA. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA. BRINGING OCCASIONAL LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO ONTARIO WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER 7 PM CDT.
1209 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015 GENERALLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH IN THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 90S IN KEYS COMMUNITIES. ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS IS LOCKED DOWN AND ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION.
As a ridge of high pressure begins to strengthen over the region, the general trend across western Montana and north central Idaho will be warming and drying with mostly sunny skies.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE CWA ON THURSDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY EAST OF I-35/35E AND THEN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF THURSDAY NIGHT.
INCLUDING THE LOWER DESERTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL THEN GRADUALLY REDUCE RAIN CHANCES FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
229 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015 221 PM CDT COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THOUGH GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERE UPSTREAM PER OAX 12Z RAOB AND EXPECT ONLY A FEW PATCHY MID-HIGH CLOUDS WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF TROUGH AND BENEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE TO UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES. SETTING THE STAGE FOR A LESS HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR AVERAGE IN THE LOW-MID 60S. UPPER PATTERN SETTLES INTO A RIDGE IN THE WEST/TROUGH IN THE EAST CONFIGURATION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSING THE RIDGE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
221 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONE IN EASTERN ONTARIO. COLD AIR CONTINUED TO WRAP AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THIS CYCLONE.
256 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT AND MIX INTO CU. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO.
118 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND A DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE WEEKEND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.
Storms were also developing along the cold front to our northwest over IL/IN.
244 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 HEAT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STRONG A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT.
606 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUT MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
221 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015 221 PM CDT COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THOUGH GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERE UPSTREAM PER OAX 12Z RAOB AND EXPECT ONLY A FEW PATCHY MID-HIGH CLOUDS WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF TROUGH AND BENEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE TO UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES. SETTING THE STAGE FOR A LESS HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR AVERAGE IN THE LOW-MID 60S. UPPER PATTERN SETTLES INTO A RIDGE IN THE WEST/TROUGH IN THE EAST CONFIGURATION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MID LEVEL/500MB HIGH CENTERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND IN THE ATLANTIC SOUTHEAST OF FLORIDA MOVE LITTLE AS DOES THE MID LEVEL/500MB TROUGHING OVER FLORIDA BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH CENTERS.
326 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015 THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A RIDGE AXIS SETTLING EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ACRS THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS. TO THE MID MS RVR VALLEY BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU THE GRT LKS AND WESTERN OH RVR VALLEY. MAKING FOR TOLERABLE HUMIDITY VALUES WHEN COMBINED WITH AMBIENT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND ESPECIALLY THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP WERE INDICATING NICELY A LARGE WRAPPED UP CYCLONE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION SPIRALING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. ALONG WITH THE LOWERED DPTS SHOULD MAKE FOR A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH SEVERAL AREAS MAKING IT INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60.
341 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 THE AREA STILL REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
641 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NRN OH/NW PA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
233 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015 THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSOURI. DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WAS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT 500 MILLIBARS. WILL KEEP IN SHRA/TSRA CHANCES OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MAKE IT TO NEAR NASHVILLE TENNESSEE BY AROUND 06Z AND ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE NEAR FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY. EXPECT THAT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z.
241 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE LOWER 90S IN MANY AREAS ACROSS THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S. A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE MOVES WEST. TEMPS MAY ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. A DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL LEAD TO LOWER HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES BACK OFF BY SEVERAL DEGREES RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
133 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND THEN IT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPANDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
Summer conditions return to the Inland Northwest as a ridge of high pressure takes control. Tonight through Thursday: The models are in good agreement with the high pressure building into the region.
Most high res models continue to weaken this area in the near term as it moves farther south underneath mid level ridging. Cold front was located near I-44 early this afternoon and will continue its southward push through early evening across the southwest MO airports.
244 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TODAY. A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
AT 1230 PM THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS AND HAD DRIFTED NORTHWEST OVER THE HIGH DESERTS.
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. UNDER THESE CLEAR SKIES EXPECT TO SEE HOT TEMPERATURES AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESIDE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ROUGHLY OKLAHOMA AND A NEW LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS DEVELOPING AROUND 35 NORTH AND 140 WEST. BOTH MODELS MAINTAIN A 591DM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW.
305 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015 221 PM CDT COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THOUGH GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERE UPSTREAM PER OAX 12Z RAOB AND EXPECT ONLY A FEW PATCHY MID-HIGH CLOUDS WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF TROUGH AND BENEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE TO UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES. SETTING THE STAGE FOR A LESS HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR AVERAGE IN THE LOW-MID 60S. UPPER PATTERN SETTLES INTO A RIDGE IN THE WEST/TROUGH IN THE EAST CONFIGURATION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR.
108 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015 COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WILL SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS TODAY. AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN U. STRONG UPPER LOW OVER LAKE WINNIPEG EARLY THIS MORNING ONLY WILL MAKE SLOW NORTHEAST PROGRESS INTO HUDSON BAY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS A BROAD TROUGH ENVELOPS THE MIDWEST. WE'LL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE FRINGE OF THE THERMAL RIDGE THAT AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID- UPPER 80S THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH SOME MODEST COOLING THIS WEEKEND AS THE BROAD TROUGH DIGS FURTHER.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF DEEPENING AND MOVING SOUTHWARD AND BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE GULF JUST WEST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY A BROAD SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND EXTEND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF.
312 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY BRINGING ANOTHER WARM AND NICE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
502 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015 221 PM CDT COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THOUGH GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERE UPSTREAM PER OAX 12Z RAOB AND EXPECT ONLY A FEW PATCHY MID-HIGH CLOUDS WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF TROUGH AND BENEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE TO UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES. SETTING THE STAGE FOR A LESS HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR AVERAGE IN THE LOW-MID 60S. UPPER PATTERN SETTLES INTO A RIDGE IN THE WEST/TROUGH IN THE EAST CONFIGURATION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
335 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA. WE WILL THEN SEE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. ANOTHER PLEASANT WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH IN CONTROL.
246 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ESSENTIALLY THE SRN DEEPLY- REFLECTED RIDGE REMAINS INTACT AS IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND IT IN THE MID- AND UPPER FLOW. A NICE ZONE OF MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG WILL BE PRESENT AS THE STORMS MOVE FURTHER SWD (AND THIS WILL AVERAGE BEING THE HIGHEST ZONE OF INSTABILITY AS WE MOVE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS). HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
240 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015 A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY JUST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AREA OF ILX, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ARE MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND DRIER AND COOLER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE REGION.
308 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015 AN UNUSUALLY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NW ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HEIGHTS INCREASE AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO HUDSON BAY. LEANED ON THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GUIDANCE SINCE THE OVERNIGHT WINDS SHOULD HELP BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES. THE DAY SHOULD BE WARMER AND SUNNIER.
302 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK.
335 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS IS A GREAT EXAMPLE ON WHY THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW MAKES SUCH A DIFFERENCE FOR OUR WEATHER. OTHER SNOW SHOWERS WILL FALL OVER THE REST OF THE HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS BELOW ZERO ARE LIKELY IN SOME OF THE HIGHER TRRN.
NOW TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER 40S WITH A FEW OF THE COOLER VALLEY LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW 40 DEGREES THIS MORNING. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING SETTING UP AN EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH THAT IS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NEWRD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY WED.
OTHERWISE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
LRD WILL LIKELY SEE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/WIND SHIFT IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE REAL FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
Expect a mild Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 60s on a steady warm advective component.
THE SEASONALLY MILD WEATHER WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT AFTER ONE MORE DAY OF SEASONALLY MILD WEATHER WEDNESDAY.
SENDING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY TODAY DUE TO A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE ROCKIES. WE STILL BELIEVE THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN EAST OF KDFW. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT. /ISSUED 252 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2015/ LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MILD ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOL AND DRY AIR ARRIVES OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN U.
THE ECMWF/UKMET WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM/CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. LOCATIONS TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW TRACK WHICH ONLY HAVE A SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILE. OBSERVATIONS IN THIS AREA RANGE FROM JUST BELOW TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING. FREEZING OR NOT DEPENDING ON THE TEMPERATURE. DUE TO CURRENT AND EXPECTED LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION DUE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING FOG. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA.
532 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE BEFORE SUNRISE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A STORM OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AGAINST THE UPPER RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
1000 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2015 THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW BRIEF RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE PROGGED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY SHIFTING INTO NEBRASKA AND KANSAS.
212 AM PST TUE DEC 15 2015 COLD TEMPERATURES REMAIN INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.
435 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2015 A POTENT CLOSED LOW CHURNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN CO INTO WESTERN NE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. A TIGHTENING LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT WILL ACT WITH DEEPENING DIURNAL MIXING INTO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO STRENGTHEN SURFACE WINDS BEHIND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL KEEP MIXING HEIGHTS BELOW H7.
/ISSUED 303 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2015/ COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA AND HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUIDED BY LONGWAVE TROUGH BEHIND IT.
CLOUDINESS ACROSS MOST OF SE OREGON/SW IDAHO AS OF 3 AM IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM THE NW AS THE UPPER LOW AND UPSLOPE FLOW PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA. COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE ID PANHANDLE LATE TODAY WILL SPREAD A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF A LINE FROM BURNS TO CAMBRIDGE AND MCCALL TO BANNER SUMMIT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO SE ID WEDNESDAY LEAVING HARNEY/MALHEUR COUNTIES CLOUDY BUT MOSTLY PRECIP- FREE.
414 AM MST TUE DEC 15 2015 SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF COLORADO THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW QUICKLY LIFTS NORTHEAST AND WILL BE OVER NEBRASKA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE LOW SHOULD KEEP SNOW GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT. AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS GOING OVER THE HIGHER WEST FACING MTN SLOPES AND RIDGE TOPS DURING THE DAY.
533 AM MST TUE DEC 15 2015 FREEZING FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WITH THE EXPIRATION OF THE FREEZING FOG ADVISORY. ADDED MENTION OF FREEZING FOG/PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING THAT IS NOW IN EFFECT. TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES OVER THE ROCKIES. WITH UPPER LOW OVER CO. WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CREATING LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPING WINDS. WITH FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER PARTS OF THE SD PLAINS. FREEZING FOG MAY LINGER INTO THIS MORNING BEFORE THE MAIN SNOW ARRIVAL. FAIRLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY AS IT BEGINS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW THIS MORNING. A CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL PUSH SOME WEAK ENERGY AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
Expect sunny skies for the remainder of the day with afternoon high temperatures rising into the low to mid 70s.
OVERALL FORECAST STILL ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 66 38 66 53 / 0 0 10 90 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 64 39 65 52 / 0 0 10 80 OAK RIDGE, TN 63 37 65 50 / 0 0 10 80 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 60 35 66 48 / 0 0 10 80.
606 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2015 A weak area of high pressure will cross central and southeast Illinois today between two strong areas of low pressure. While the area of high pressure is fairly small/weak, there is a very strong subsidence inversion associated with it per 00Z ILX and forecast soundings. Much of the higher resolution guidance is also pointing in this direction. Assuming the clouds hold, high temperatures should range from the lower 40s northwest to upper 40s southeast across the forecast area. Later tonight, the deep low/trof over the desert SW will move through the Plains and stretch a developing boundary into the Midwest. Although the track of the upper low is similar in all models, the sfc depiction of the boundary is different through tomorrow.
/issued 342 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2015/ Upper level low over CO this morning will lift NE today as the tail end of the trough rotates down across the area Wednesday. This trough will push a Pacific front across the area today with a brisk west wind.
A LEAD COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC THIS MORNING. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON THEN BE PUSHED SOUTH BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT LURKING IN VA. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL CONSEQUENTLY SETTLE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WITH PERIODS OF CALM AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SUPPORTIVE OF LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER AREAS FROM ALBEMARLE TO SILER CITY AND SANFORD. AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
536 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2015 LOOKING LIKE A WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION SYSTEM COMING IN OVERNIGHT WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN CHANCES IN THE FAR NORTH. SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE BEEN FALLING IN THAT SAME AREA AS LOW PRESSURE WILL EJECT THROUGH MN. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR I-70 WILL BE WORKED NORTH WITH A MOIST SURGE SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE TRACK. ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW-LEVELS. BELIEVE MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING. BEFORE WARM ADVECTION KICKS TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING /AFTER 09Z/.
837 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD.
/ISSUED 151 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2015/ A DYNAMIC UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST TO THE NE OF THE 4-CORNERS OVER SWRN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST TO THE FRONT RANGE AT 12Z. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRY COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC ORIGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. WILL FAVOR WARMER MAV NUMBERS FOR TODAYS HIGHS. WHICH WILL HELP TO OOZE DOWN A COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS /HIGHS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 40S AND 50S/.
1039 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
555 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2015 AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW BRIEF RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE PROGGED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.
512 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD.
WHILE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND GOOD MIXING WILL RESULT IN SOME 60S IN SOUTHEAST KS. A SUBTLE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH.
Low level moisture surging north ahead of an approaching cold front will likely result in a period of MVFR ceilings impacting southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas locations from mid-afternoon through around 06z along with a few light showers. /ISSUED 351 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2015/ Today will be an unseasonably warm day with increasing southerly winds ahead of a cold front that will sweep across the area tonight.