Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
In conjunction with this low, a quick moving cold front will work its way southeast through the area by 0Z. There may be enough mid level moisture for the lift from the upper level trough to work with. Winds behind the cold front will quickly shift to the north and will be gusty in the immediate vicinity of the front. Lows tonight will be cooler than last night in the upper 30s to low 40s with clearing skies. Even with the generally weak cold air advection, tomorrow will also be slightly cooler in the upper 60s to low 70s.
1106 AM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 High pressure will prevail early this week followed by low pressure during mid week. High pressure will then prevail until a cold front moves through this weekend. Today: High pressure will prevail across the region, bringing dry conditions. Temperatures will be considerably milder than the freezing values from the previous two nights. One thing to keep an eye on is the low end potential for a few light showers to develop within the onshore flow late tonight. High pressure on Tuesday is expected to give way to to a deep low pressure system which is likely to move northeast from the Deep South through the Carolinas through the period.
A cold front will slide across the region late tonight into early Tuesday morning. A cold front will sweep through the area late tonight into tomorrow morning, shifting the winds to the north.
While high pressure will build into the Upper Peninsula, guidance shows that weak convergence and residual low level moisture will hang around central to east- central Wisconsin for much of the night. As a result, think these areas will remain on the mostly cloudy side and therefore warmer than locations over far northern WI. Weak high pressure will hang across the region. Warmer and drier air will invade the region from the west, which should lead to a warmer day. With clouds clearing in the morning, highs should range from the low 40s to low 50s across the region.
233 PM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 Warmer temperatures are expected today with continued dry conditions.
An upper trough over the central and southern Rockies will move southeast and extend from the central and southern Plains across our area late this afternoon. As the trough continues to move southeast, a closed low will develop over far southern Oklahoma by late this evening, and then track to the Ark-La-Tex by 7 AM Tuesday. Associated weak cold front will move southeast across our area during the afternoon, and should be out of our area by 7 PM. With lift and colder air aloft with the incoming trough, some of the models show potential for a few elevated showers in the Big Country late this afternoon, and into Coleman and Brown Counties this evening.
Think widespread dense fog threat in on the low end, but will keep an eye out. Wed still on track to pop 60 degrees for highs for most of the area, with a quick cool down Thu post an upper level trough.
151 PM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 High pressure is forecast to keep dry weather over the Ohio Valley through mid week.
230 PM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 High pressure will continue to extend westward across NC through tonight.
At the surface, ~1,030+ mb high pressure is in place from Southern Appalachia over to the Atlantic Coast.
Therefore, have kept on the low side of PoPs early on Tuesday. Precipitation and cloud cover will keep temperatures cooler near and south of the Tennessee River. Further south highs in the lower 60s look more likely.
Seasonably warm conditions can be expected today and tomorrow with high pressure building across the region.
327 PM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 Discussion/Marine - Very little precip tonight, freezing rain threat minimal The GFS has trended much drier with the cold front tonight as we expected it would. The chance for travel impacts are expected to be minimal as temperature profiles and skin temperatures are marginal for freezing/frozen precip. The ECMWF has trended east with the low and grazes the southern zones while the GEM is currently a compromise between the two.
1218 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 Breezy conditions persist today as warm air continues to be pushed northward by the LLJ enhanced by a leeward trough off the eastern Rockies. Throughout the day, the lee cyclone is expected to make its way across northern Oklahoma eventually traveling the eastern Oklahoma I-40 corridor into Arkansas keeping it well south of our area. Vertical profiles support this potential showing ample saturation through the low layer.
308 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 KEY MESSAGES: - Much warmer temperatures this week with 40s, 50s, and 60s expected. A warm front will lift north Tuesday. Much warmer air will flow northward and the snow-free areas from southern MN and south will allow it to reach the area unimpeded. Highs in the upper 50s ae likely, and could reach the 60s on the lee side of the Buffalo Ridge.
(This evening through Tuesday) Upper trough overhead will continue to slide east/southeast this evening. Associated surface cold front that is currently across western Oklahoma will be near I-35 corridor by 00Z. The upper low becomes closed off overnight and slowing down, which will keep a chance of at least some light rain across parts of central into southeast Oklahoma tonight and possibly into early part of the day Tuesday.
309 PM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 Zonal flow aloft this morning gave way to more SWrly flow as a upper level low continues to gain strength across the Southern Plains.
A speed max rounding the base of the closed low tonight is expected to help consolidate the convection into a line that will track east across the southern portions of our CWA tonight into Tuesday morning. Additional convection is expected Tuesday afternoon as the nearly stacked low pressure system moves over our CWA. Otherwise, temperatures will be cooler than today across most of our CWA but the south may see a decent amount of insolation after the morning convection ends and top out in the lower 70s.
Lower cigs will continue to expand from our East Texas terminals this morning as southerly flow increases Gulf moisture ahead of a potent upper level disturbance and cold front.
High pressure in northwest flow is breaking down ahead of the next system. Winds pick up tonight into tomorrow with gusts of 25 to 35 mph likely, especially for ridge tops and the Snake plain by tomorrow afternoon. If precipitation arrives my mid morning, there could be freezing rain in the upper snake plain.
The southern stream will be more dominant over the forecast area with resultant warmer temperatures expected during this time frame.
Upper ridging will be over the CWA overnight into Tuesday. High temperatures on Tuesday look 6-9 C warmer than today's highs. Tuesday will be mostly sunny with temperatures reaching up to 10 degrees above seasonal average with highs in the mid to upper 60s on the plains and 30s to 40s in the high country.
Temperatures across the Midsouth are mostly in the 50s on the way to afternoon highs into the low to mid 60s.
Generally weather is expected through the overnight hours as a weak and dissipating cold front nears the area from the west. Ahead of the front, a weak upper level trough with some associated mid level lift will pass through during the early morning hours creating a period of cloudy skies and a few sprinkles/light rain showers. The arriving clouds will also help prevent the more robust radiational cooling that has occurred for the last few days with expected lows in the low to mid 40s. Sporadic light rain and sprinkles will be possible through the early portion of the day tomorrow as the aforementioned cold front stalls and becomes diffuse. Expect that lows will fall into the low to mid 40s across central Indiana.
145 PM MDT Mon Mar 14 2022 A split trough is crossing the central CONUS, with weak upper ridging over the west. At the surface, the CWA sits between troughs to the northwest and southeast. Upper ridge axis will cross the Rockies Tuesday, and warmer air will advect into our area behind a warm front. Tuesday night, an upper trough will approach, and a cold front will sweep through the northern plains.
Conditions locally will become warmer and more humid ahead of this system and we should start to see some showers over our northern zones by morning, shifting southward through the day.
115 PM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 High pressure will continue to extend westward across NC through this evening.
Tuesday the upper ridge to the west weakens with an increasing zonal flow to bring downsloping winds for the leeside trough to reform. As prevailing surface winds turn southwest through the morning winds the combination of warmer temperatures and increasing winds, relative humidities will drop into the teens by noontime CDT.
Winds will also increase with 50kt 700mb jet moving through, but stability profile appears to limit strong surface winds to mainly wind prone locations and along higher ridges. Ensemble guidance indicating an appreciable cold trough developing off the coast Sat- Sun, however this one has the appearance of a splitter-in- training with a number of members sending the bulk of the energy to our south.
Southwest flow will continue across the region tonight as high pressure continues to shift off to the southeast. Lows tonight will range from the mid 30s in the southeast to the lower 40s in the northwest. Temperatures will continue to gradually moderate with highs on Tuesday in the upper 50s north to the lower/mid 60s across the south.
127 PM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 Warmer temperatures and continued dry weather are expected today and Tuesday as high pressure moves off the Carolina coast.
No freezing temperatures are in the forecast through the weekend. Current temperatures are in the low to middle 60s across the area and may approach 70 degrees this afternoon, though clouds may limit much additional warming.
The warming trend will continue with highs from the lower 60s in the higher elevations east to readings in the upper 60s far south. An upper low will move east over the South-Central Plains tonight and approach from the west during the day on Tuesday.
403 PM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 High pressure will remain in control through Tuesday. More unsettled weather is expected mid to late week as a slow moving low pressure system traverses the area. A cold front will push through the area this weekend, with high pressure building in behind it. High pressure will continue to extend over the area from offshore tonight, as low pressure begins to strengthen over TX/OK. Moisture in the low levels remains limited, but very weak southerly flow above the surface inversion could be enough to bring some moisture mixing into the BL, and patchy, shallow fog is possible mainly along and US Hwy 17 corridor and Inner Banks. High pressure slides further offshore, with WAA gradually increasing.
Ultimately the forecast is on good track with high pressure in full control, and all updates were minor with no big changes to the forecast for today. 07Z sfc analysis shows high pressure sliding to the southeast of Kentucky with enough of a pressure gradient to maintain some light southwest winds blowing on the ridges and over the more open terrain. The high is also keeping the skies mostly clear with just a bit of high clouds noted near the Tennessee border. This has set the stage for another night of impressive radiational cooling with a current temperature range from near 40 on the ridges to the mid 20s in the sheltered valleys where winds are basically calm.
High pressure remains in control of weather over much of the eastern CONUS this morning. An upper trough/closed low will pivot into the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight, with strong southerly flow across the TN Valley filtering in moisture. Clouds will slowly begin to move into the area, but we should see enough clear sky to allow temps to drop into the lower 40s once again tonight. The upper low will deepen as it slowly moves eastward on Tuesday, with showers moving into the TN Valley throughout the day. Latest guidance keeps the area on the northern edge of the low, with winds shifting to the east and cutting us off from the better moisture and instability.
A cutoff low will move into the northern Gulf Coast and the Mississippi Valley late Tuesday night, with a surface front developing ahead of the low.
Limited moisture return with the upper trof and associated surface cyclone and front today as it moves across central and eastern Kansas. However cannot rule out a few sprinkles ahead of and behind the cold front. As this trof becomes a closed low this evening over eastern Oklahoma, dynamic lift/cooling aloft and somewhat better moisture flux will lead to some weak elevated instability that could clip far southeast Kansas.
A cold front/lake breeze will push southeast and drive the frontal boundary from northeast to southwest through the forecast area this afternoon and evening, bringing an abrupt end to the warmer temperatures. Lows tonight will settle into the low to mid 30s.
The low will trek east through the state Tuesday night with breezy northwest wind behind it.
333 PM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 In the mid levels, a trough currently just east of the four corners region will dig as it moves eastward. A closed low should develop near the Arklatex tonight. The closed low will move east across the southeast states during the early part of the week. At the surface, a high pressure ridge is currently situated across middle Georgia. The ridge will begin to shift eastward tomorrow as a low pressure system along the Gulf Coast moves eastward. As the low moves eastward, precipitation should begin to overspread the CWA from the west/southwest.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday night): A 500 mb trough continues to dig across the Plains this afternoon which will bring a weak cold front through Deep South Texas overnight. Tuesday, drier air will filter in across the CWA allowing for clearing skies and temperatures to climb into the low to mid 80s with 70s expected along the coast.
A ridge, currently building across the Desert Southwest, will eventually move east tonight into tomorrow. High pressure at the surface should help keep skies clear and will allow for temperatures to rebound into the 60s and 70s tomorrow afternoon. A leeside low is forecast to develop west of the CWA in the higher terrain of CO/NM tomorrow afternoon. Much warmer overnight lows are expected during tomorrow night, with temperatures ranging from the mid 30s to low 40s. Minimum afternoon relative humidity values may drop down to the low teens tomorrow afternoon.
/Issued 333 PM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022/ In the mid levels, a trough currently just east of the four corners region will dig as it moves eastward. A closed low should develop near the Arklatex tonight. The closed low will move east across the southeast states during the early part of the week. At the surface, a high pressure ridge is currently situated across middle Georgia. The ridge will begin to shift eastward tomorrow as a low pressure system along the Gulf Coast moves eastward. As the low moves eastward, precipitation should begin to overspread the CWA from the west/southwest.
857 PM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 High pressure will remain in control through Tuesday. More unsettled weather is expected mid to late week as a slow moving low pressure system traverses the area. A cold front will push through the area this weekend, with high pressure building in behind it. High pressure will continue to extend over the area from offshore tonight, as low pressure begins to strengthen over TX/OK. Moisture in the low levels remains limited, but very weak southerly flow above the surface inversion could be enough to bring some moisture mixing into the BL as guidance indicated dewpoints rising well into the 30s throughout the night. High pressure slides further offshore, with WAA gradually increasing.
946 PM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 High pressure will linger over the western Atlantic through Tuesday morning. Developing low pressure will move northeast from the Gulf coast region Tuesday night.
514 PM MDT Mon Mar 14 2022 A split trough is crossing the central CONUS, with weak upper ridging over the west. At the surface, the CWA sits between troughs to the northwest and southeast. Upper ridge axis will cross the Rockies Tuesday, and warmer air will advect into our area behind a warm front. Tuesday night, an upper trough will approach, and a cold front will sweep through the northern plains.
957 PM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 Upper trough will move through Tuesday morning. Generally weather is expected through the overnight hours as a weak and dissipating cold front nears the area from the west. Ahead of the front, a weak upper level trough with some associated mid level lift will pass through during the early morning hours creating a period of cloudy skies and a few sprinkles/light rain showers. The arriving clouds will also help prevent the more robust radiational cooling that has occurred for the last few days with expected lows in the low to mid 40s. Sporadic light rain and sprinkles will be possible through the early portion of the day tomorrow as the aforementioned cold front stalls and becomes diffuse. Expect that lows will fall into the low to mid 40s across central Indiana.
For Tuesday will see the clouds continue to lower and thicken as low pressure moves along the northern Gulf coast. Conditions locally will become warmer and more humid ahead of this system and we should start to see some showers over our northern zones by late morning, shifting southward through the day.
Onshore flow in the low-levels will keep temperatures elevated overnight, especially along the coast, as well as occasional stratocu streaming onto the coast and points inland. Overnight mins generally in the M-U50s over the interior in normally cooler rural areas and near 60 to L60s most everywhere else, including larger metropolitan areas; except M-U60s immediate Space/Treasure coasts. A cut-off mid level low in the southern stream will slowly progress eastward across the lower MS Valley.
633 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 Overall it will be a warmer than normal forecast period with highs generally in the 60s.
The westerly entry of dry air in the lower levels should allow earlier stratus to continue to erode. Late afternoon high temperatures today show a potential for highs to exceed NBM guidance, which will be favored by southwest surface winds and 850mb temperatures 6 to 8 C warmer than today. With the NBM75th percentile looking reasonable and in line with ECS/MAV/MET guidance, highs were increased to the low-mid 60s southwest and south-central. These warmer temperatures will come to areas with minimal to no snow cover, while areas with snow cover see their temperatures improve to the 40s.
Even as temperatures are currently remaining slightly warmer than the previous forecast trend, temperatures should still drop off to the previous forecast -- or perhaps even a couple degrees cooler than the previous forecast in the eastern sections of the ILN CWA. Previous discussion > Southwest flow will continue across the region tonight as high pressure continues to shift off to the southeast. Lows tonight will range from the mid 30s in the southeast to the lower 40s in the northwest. Temperatures will continue to gradually moderate with highs on Tuesday in the upper 50s north to the lower/mid 60s across the south.
952 PM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 High pressure will dominate to our southeast through Tuesday, allowing for moderating temperatures.
648 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 (Through tonight ) An upper low over western Oklahoma will drop southeast and close off overnight near the Arklatex.
1036 PM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 Currently - A strong high pressure system off the mid Atlantic coast extends a robust ridge westward across the southeastern United States. Local evening soundings indicated good veering through the lower levels under a weakening and elevating inversion. Short Term Update - The previously mentioned ridge will shift a bit further eastward into the Atlantic and the western flank of the ridge will be blunted some by falling pressures over Louisiana. In addition to the weakening flow, forecast soundings suggest that the lower level veering will diminish. An Atlantic ridge extending across the southeastern United States will stretch further out to see overnight. This along with falling pressures over Louisiana will result in an erosion of the western flank of the ridge.
Seasonably warm conditions will continue tomorrow with high pressure over the region.
854 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 An upper level low pressure system will move into the Lower Mississippi River Valley on Tuesday. No freezing temperatures are in the forecast through the weekend. Current temperatures are in the low to middle 60s across the area and may approach 70 degrees this afternoon, though clouds may limit much additional warming.
513 PM MDT Mon Mar 14 2022 00Z TAF CYCLE Northerly winds through eastern NM will diminish past sunset as the low pressure system to the east moves away.
BT Prominent upper ridging and downslope warming and bringing about mostly clear skies and allowing temperatures to easily climb into the 50s this afternoon. Low pressure will continue to move south lee-side of the Rockies into the area, strengthening an already existent pressure gradient over the Beartooths, and strong enough to bring about winds gusting to 60 mph tonight in the Livingston area, which will be the starting time of a wind advisory.
851 PM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 Warmer temperatures are expected Tuesday with continued dry conditions.
High pressure over the Intermountain West will weaken and move off to the east as an incoming trough works to flatten the upper level ridge.
718 PM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 As high pressure moves off the Carolina coast tonight and Tuesday, temperatures will warm back to normal levels.
831 PM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 Warmer temperatures are expected today with continued dry conditions.
Think widespread dense fog threat in on the low end, but will keep an eye out. Wed still on track to pop 60 degrees for highs for most of the area, with a quick cool down Thu post an upper level trough. Weak high pressure builds over southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin tonight. Low level inversion develops underneath high pressure and traps moisture near the surface. This low level moisture will allow for stratus deck of clouds to lower into the MVFR/IFR overnight at both taf sites.
Current surface observations and blended short term consensus model guidance showing warmer temperature trends west of Cumberland Plateau than expected.
658 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 Temperatures are still holding near or above freezing over parts of the Devils Lake Basin and our far east deeper in the forested areas of MN. The southern stream will be more dominant over the forecast area with resultant warmer temperatures expected during this time frame.
High pressure was building across the Northland this afternoon in the wake of a frontogenetical snow band that affected the southern reaches of the area last night into this morning. This area of high pressure will keep dry conditions in place for the remainder of today and into tonight.
646 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 KEY MESSAGES: - Much warmer temperatures this week with 40s, 50s, and 60s expected. A warm front will lift north Tuesday. Much warmer air will flow northward and the snow-free areas from southern MN and south will allow it to reach the area unimpeded. Highs in the upper 50s are likely, and could reach the 60s on the lee side of the Buffalo Ridge.
304 PM MST Mon Mar 14 2022 High pressure will predominate across the Desert Southwest this week, resulting in above normal temperatures and a continuation of the dry conditions.
Expect 24-hour snow totals in the 1 to 3 inch range for western valleys, 3 to 5 inch range over Teton and Togwotee passes, and 4 to 8 inches of new accumulation in the high terrain of the Tetons and Gros Ventres.