Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Current surface analysis reveals a strong cold front oriented northeast to southwest across central Kentucky. KSDF even measured a 45mph gust a little after 230pm this afternoon as the cold front passed. Cold air will continue to pump in behind the cold front and drop overnight lows into the mid 40s. Monday will feel quite cool and dry compared to previous days, as afternoon highs barely top out in the low 60s for many locations, and dewpoints hang out in the upper 30s to low 40s. Winds should remain light out of the north around 5mph-10mph thanks to high pressure building in from the west.
Ridging will build over the intermountain west through Monday with the main northern stream jet shifting north into Canada.
317 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 After a cool start to the week, building high pressure will result in dry and gradually warming weather through the rest of the week. An approaching upper trough, along with lake enhancement from cool NW flow off the Great Lakes should result in clouds and isolated-scattered showers for parts of the area this morning. The axis of the trough is progged to begin to shift E of the area during the afternoon. Broad high pressure over much of the Ern CONUS will maintain dry and gradually warming weather through the period. Building high pressure will diminish wind and return VFR as Monday aftn progresses. No widespread restrictions are expected under high pressure.
542 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 After a cool start to the week, building high pressure will result in dry and gradually warming weather through the rest of the week. An approaching upper trough, along with lake enhancement from cool NW flow off the Great Lakes should result in clouds and isolated-scattered showers for parts of the area this morning. The axis of the trough is progged to begin to shift E of the area during the afternoon. Broad high pressure over much of the Ern CONUS will maintain dry and gradually warming weather through the period. Low end VFR, to occasional MVFR stratocu, will persist with an approaching upper trough and in cool NW flow off the Great Lakes. Building high pressure will diminish wind and return VFR as Monday aftn progresses. No widespread restrictions are expected under high pressure.
SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): Fall-like weather with cool mornings and comfortable afternoons will prevail through Tuesday in the wake of last night's cold front. Cooler and drier air will continue to advect into the area today. High temperatures Tuesday will be in the low to mid 80s, which is closer to normal.
302 AM MDT Mon Oct 16 2017 A ridge will strengthen over the western U. Models remain fairly consistent through the late week period as a trough moves onto the Left Coast.
Today Through Tuesday Night Cooler and drier airmass contd to advect SWD into AR overnight, following the passage of a CDFNT on Sun. Expect another chilly night tonight, with light winds/clear skies, with lows in the lower/mid 40s.
136 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 A cold front crosses through this evening. Much cooler tonight into Tuesday. Dry high pressure with a warming trend for the middle and latter part of the week.
316 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 A large area of high pressure will settle into the Ohio Valley for the upcoming week, with dry conditions expected. Conditions appear dry, clear, and slightly warmer than Monday -- lower to middle 60s.
Tracked along with some of the cooler guidance which gave temperatures between 31 and 37 degrees across south central Nebraska and north central Kansas.
Temps tonight are expected to cooler fairly quickly at sunset. but with warmer windshift expected. H5/H7 ridging over the western portion of the country thru the day will create NW downslope flow. This combined with SSW surface winds ahead of a lee-side trough over the Front Range. H5/H7 ridging across the western portion of the country will transition to zonal flow aloft as the week progresses.
While there are still large discrepancies among the global models as to the specifics, they generally agree on a trough traversing through the Intermountain West and into the Plains states, kicking off unsettled weather at the surface. While no two weather events are the same, models are depicting a similar scenario of this past weekend with upper trough exiting the ImW, triggering cyclogenesis, leading to a cold front dragging through the region, and triggering storms along and ahead of it.
213 AM MDT Mon Oct 16 2017 Broad upper ridge is building over the western half of the country. At the surface, a trough is pushing into the northern plains. Upper ridging will bring warm and dry weather to the region through the week.
Tranquil weather conditions are expected throughout the remainder of the week with high pressure influencing the Panhandles region. A deep trough will enter the northwest Pacific coastline by the end of the work week. Latest 15/12Z model and probabilistic guidance shows a localized PVA max detached from the main upper level feature and work its way east- southeast along a progressing cold front by this up and coming weekend.
The clear skies early this morning have led to near/below freezing temperatures across the Northern Rockies. Winds could start reaching 40 to 60+ mph wind gusts for mountain tops by overnight and continue through Tuesday as a cold front approaches.
Today should be pretty outstanding across the region with mostly clear skies and temperatures in the lower to middle 70s.
321 AM MDT Mon Oct 16 2017 Overnight water vapor loop depicted a upper trough axis over the Midwest, and broad ridge over the western CONUS. The surface and upper ridge will be the prevailing features for our CWA through the short term. Gusty downsloping westerly winds will promote warmer than normal daytime temperatures and a dry air mass. High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s lower elevations, with 40s and 50s for the high country.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a trough over the middle of the country with south-southwesterly flow over Texas. At the surface, a cold front stretched across the southern part of our CWA. Behind the front winds were from the north-northeast bringing cooler, drier air. The cold front will have moved to the coast by the start of this period.
327 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017 Cold frontal passage in progress, with front near a Pascagoula to Houma line at 230 am. 35 Cold front will continue to track southeastward today. Much cooler weather for the next several days, along with lower dew points. Expect much of the northern half of the area to see lows in the 40s and lower 50s tonight, and slightly warmer readings Tuesday night.
Tonight Through Tuesday A cold front exited Arkansas to the southeast this afternoon. Cooler and drier air followed the front, along with rapid clearing from the northwest. This will be ahead of a large area of high pressure building into Arkansas from the Plains. High pressure will be over the state on Tuesday, with continued dry conditions and mild weather.
High pressure will strengthen throughout this period. The high slowly breaks down starting the day before, but it does not impact the forecast area until Thu, with an increase in cloudiness. However, afternoon temperatures continue to warm, some places 15 deg F warmer than normal, with this the warmest day of the next seven.
The cold front has pushed south of the area this morning with northerly flow present across Central AL. Much cooler temperatures today and tonight with lows dropping into the upper 40s to low 50s by early tomorrow morning. Ridging builds in across the Southeast US Tuesday and sets up over the Central Appalachians through the weekend. This will result in cooler and drier easterly flow for Central AL.
342 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 Weak area of low pressure over the Western Atlantic gets embedded with an upper trough that digs into the southeast plains today into Tuesday. The trough will push a cold front over the Tennessee Valley and northern Florida today into Tuesday.
/issued 302 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017/ Fall has returned to West Texas behind last night's cold front. Breezy northerly winds this morning were now on the decline and will more fully diminish this evening as surface ridging settles squarely over the South Plains. It appears temperatures roughly north and west of Lubbock should dip into the middle 30s, with a few low spots, especially over sandy soil, perhaps briefly dropping to around the freezing mark. These disturbances will have minimal impacts other than to occasional increase the high cloudiness over the region.
A cold front will move from NW to SE across our area from the morning through the afternoon, with MVFR cigs possible in the wake of the front at DHN and ABY. This evening's surface analysis showed a cold front, the first of the season to make it so far south, from the eastern Great Lakes through the TX coast. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a trough translating quickly to the east over the Ohio Valley, with weak Q-G forcing extending as far south as the Gulf Coast. Overnight lows will fall into the middle 50s across southeast Alabama, up to the lower 60s in the southeast Big Bend. A mixture of cloud cover and the cooler air aloft will result in high temperatures in the lower 70s on Tuesday.
417 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 The 500 mb trough axis will move east of the area this morning with upper ridging build into the region this afternoon and remaining in place through the period.
Better low level mixing and warmer low levels will keep temperatures mostly in the 40s tonight with no frost threat.
633 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 High pressure will build across the region from the west today through Tuesday. The cold front will reach the coast towards 8 to 9 am. The strongest winds with the LLJ have moved east, but there will still be sufficient winds aloft to mix down 30 to 40 mph gusts as the cold front crosses. There is strong cold air advection behind this front with dew points decreasing from the low 60s to the low to mid 20s by later tonight.
Temps will be much cooler today thanks to fropa yesterday, and highs look only to get into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Low lying areas may see temps a bit cooler than that, and as a result, could see some patchy frost by sunrise on Tuesday.
145 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017 Nice, dry, seasonally cooler airmass will continue to settle across the FA as High pressure strengthens its hold on the lower Ohio river valley. Dew points already in the lower half of the 40s, will continue to plummet into the 30s by tonight. That sets the stage, with clear sky/light wind, for some patchy frost to possibly develop, mainly across the northern half of the FA and other low lying/cooler terrain locations. We inherited a little patchy frost mention, massaged the low temp forecast just a tad, and continue with the overall theme inherited (patchy frost north).
208 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 Light rainfall chances peak this morning as a fast-moving cold front moves through the area. Warmer temperatures will return later this week as deep-layer ridging sets up over the Southeast US. As of 200 AM Mon: Wind shift line of incoming cold front as crossed the Appalachians, with scattered showers over the NW half of the CWFA.
426 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 A cold front from Maine to Alabama will move southeast today and off the East Coast tonight.
A cold front is moving across the TN Valley with a warm conveyor belt moving off to the east and northeast over northeast AL/GA, the cold conveyor belt moves just north of the TN Valley, and the dry conveyor belt moves southeast over the MS/TN River Valleys. Winds begin to weak Monday night leaving a perfect setup for a radiational cooling event, with temps bottoming out in the lower 40s.
318 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 The cold front that passed through our region during the night will continue to move out to sea today.
Clear skies with temperatures near freezing will occur across the plains tonight. Areas along the mtns/plains interface will likely see warmer temps, with upper 30s to around 40F likely.
High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 70s both today and Tuesday. A lee trough will remain anchored in place through the period and this will mean winds will stay up from Livingston to Nye.
Clear skies across the region under high pressure. Dry weather with mild days and cool nights will continue through mid-week under high pressure. Valley high temperatures will be in the lower to mid 80s. Latest model trends for the late-week system are to slow it down, and QPF is considerably lighter and focused mainly to the north of I-80 as deeper subtropical moisture is now not forecast to phase with the northern stream trough.
Another cool night with light northwest flow, and a weak ridge axis moving into the area that will allow winds to shift slightly to the southwest.
Temperatures today were 4-8 degrees warmer than yesterday so think lows will be several degrees warmer. Upper level ridge over the region Monday with mostly sunny skies and warm temps. A cold front will cross the area Tuesday. The Pacific Northwest will be under a flat upper level ridge tonight through Monday. This ridge will keep conditions fair and dry. Overnight lows will again be cool, but overall should be 1 to 3 degrees warmer than this morning. Low temps will be warmer.
A weak trough will bring an increase in clouds late in the week along with a slight chance of mountain showers, but this will be short lived as high pressure and sunny skies will return this weekend.
With plenty of residual moisture and elevated soil moisture, some low stratus and patches of fog are likely to form within the high dew point air (L/M70s), especially across inland sections by 5 AM. Gusty winds moving onshore off the relatively warm Atlc waters will preclude cooler temperatures from occurring with this mechanism leading to some efficient rainfall production as the frontal boundary settles south into the southern portions of the peninsula late Tue night. High pressure situated over the DelMarVa early Wed will remain situated over the same general area through the end of the work week with continued onshore winds over the peninsula. Fully developed high pressure along the NE to Mid Atlc seaboard will continue a general onshore flow pattern with eventual airmass drying indicated as higher upstream moisture over the Atlc basin undergoes subsidence related drying.
345 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017 Analysis of surface observations this morning indicate the surface cold front has moved out over the central Gulf of Mexico this morning. The pressure gradient in the wake of the cold front has resulted in sustained winds of 10-15 knots with gusts of 20-30 across SE Texas and SW Louisiana. Winds are expected to remain gusty throughout the day and into the evening before the pressure gradient decreases with high pressure building into the region.
243 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017 Nice, dry, seasonally cooler airmass will continue to settle across the FA as High pressure strengthens its hold on the lower Ohio river valley. Dew points already in the lower half of the 40s, will continue to plummet into the 30s by tonight. That sets the stage, with clear sky/light wind, for some patchy frost to possibly develop, mainly across the northern half of the FA and other low lying/cooler terrain locations. We inherited a little patchy frost mention, massaged the low temp forecast just a tad, and continue with the overall theme inherited (patchy frost north).
High pressure will remain over the Bahamas tonight keeping the drier air in place over South Florida. /issued 338 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017/ The high over the Bahamas will slowly weaken tonight through Tuesday, as a cold front over the Tennessee Valley moves southeast into Northern Florida. The latest long range models are showing the cold front to move southward down the Florida Peninsula middle of this week, and stall the front out over the southern areas of South Florida by end of this week.
307 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017 At 3 AM, a short wave trough was moving into Michigan. This will allow temperatures to warm into the mid and upper 50s north of Interstate 94 and into the lower to mid 60s elsewhere. The model dew points looked too high, so lowered them into the lower and mid 30s. For tonight, south and southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph will bring slightly warmer air into the region. As a result, low temperatures on Tuesday morning will be in the mid and upper 30s in central Wisconsin and in the lower and mid 40s elsewhere. In addition like today, the soundings show that there will plenty of dry air to mix down, so lowered the dew points into the lower 40s.
441 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 An upper-level composite analysis this morning reveals a rather weak and nondescript flow pattern prevailing across the Florida Keys, especially in the lower and middle troposphere. During the next few days, a large-scale baroclinic trough will migrate across the Gulf basin, inducing geopotential height falls and developing cyclonic flow over most of the region. A cold front will decelerate, weaken, stall, become aligned east-to-west, and then dissipate north of the Florida Keys. However, a residual moisture plume will advect southward to the Keys, while low-level northeast to east flow increases south of a building high pressure cell.
247 AM PDT Mon Oct 16 2017 Upper level ridge of high pressure will remain over the region through midweek with above normal temperatures and dry conditions.
213 AM PDT Mon Oct 16 2017 A warming trend will start today as high pressure strengthens over the Sierra and western Nevada.
629 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 Aviation An area of high pressure in the Middle Mississippi Valley will build east today and into the Central Appalachians for tonight.
107 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017 Updated for 06Z aviation discussion 06Z TAF discussion: Cold front was moving through HBG at 530Z. /22/ Scattered showers and isolated storms continue this evening as a cold front moves through the region. /27/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Monday: Latest RAP and satellite imagery showed a strong upper trough moving through the mid section of the CONUS. This was dragging a cold front toward the region from the northwest. Readings across the region were in the lower to middle 80s. A more seasonably cool airmass will infiltrate the region with lows in the upper 40s north to the lower 60s southeast. For Monday, sunny skies and cool below normal readings will be the general rule with highs from the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
As an upper level ridge advances over the area from the western U. An upper level disturbance tracking well north of the area Tuesday night will track close as a surface dry cold front passes through the area.
With morning cloud covering mixing out, temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 80s areawide. Looking at wind and dewpoint fields back to our west, the cold front has moved east of Tupelo, and into far northwest Alabama.
In between we will be in the heart of the warm ridge with very dry air aloft getting mixed down in most areas. Valley cold pools are about gone, but there will still be colder temperatures tonight in the low spots and over the snow patches in Grand and Jackson counties, so I dropped lows tonight a little in those places. An upper ridge axis moves eastward and across the CWA Tuesday afternoon.
325 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017 High pressure is building into the midsection of the country this morning. The cold front from last night is well to the SE as the region is sitting under a ridge axis from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes. Weak northwest flow aloft is expected to flatten out throughout the period and quiet weather to continue with ridging anchoring the weather through the work week. Plenty of sunshine should help to boost the temps into the low to mid 60s this afternoon. However, holding off on the mention for now as the guidance is showing a general warming trend to the lower 40s.
308 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017 24 hours ago, winds were howling, dust was blowing and temperatures were quickly dropping behind a fast moving cold front. Beginning today, we'll find ourselves on the eastern edge of a ridge with northwesterly flow aloft.
Thin high clouds are already moving across portions of western and central NM, and these will continue to increase and thicken late tonight ahead of an upper level trough. Warmer temperatures continue today and Wednesday.
341 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 High pressure will move off the eastern seaboard tonight, and will remain in the vicinity through the remainder of the week, allowing dry conditions to persist through the weekend. Mainly clear skies are expected during the near term period with temperatures moderating as high pressure drifts to our south and east. A warm front may result in a little more in the way of clouds across the western Adirondacks. There will be some late night fog and temperatures should be about 10 degrees or so warmer than last night.
Quiet weather can be expected through the week and into the weekend across central Indiana with high pressure slowly traversing the area. High pressure building over the area will bring mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid to upper 60s with weak warm advection. While lows tonight will still be in the low 40s under clear skies, some warm advection will cause temperatures to warm to above normal from Wednesday on. A transitional period is expected during this period as warm and dry weather changes to cooler and wetter weather.
306 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 Strong high pressure will bring dry weather through the remainder of the week. Have a great day! Synoptically quiescent conditions with clear skies and sfc anticyclone bisecting the North Country early this morning. Afternoon highs expected to range from the low 50s east of the Green Mtns, to the upr 50s in the Champlain Valley, and generally 55-60F across nrn NY.
132 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 A broad area of high pressure builds in from the west today. The high will remain in control through the weekend. At the surface, high pressure to the west continues to draw closer as the winds are now subsiding. This afternoon the winds go variable to a light WSW direction with high pressure settling on top of the region. Good radiational cooling conditions likely tonight across interior with a favorable waa aloft setup for decoupling; allowing temps to fall into the lower to mid 30s once again. Sunny skies and a gradual moderation in temps begins on Wednesday as SW return flow develops around the high to the south. Ridging both aloft and at the surface prevails through much of the period.
High pressure and dry air will spread over the area, with light winds and mostly clear to clear skies the next 24 hours. Light northerly flow at the surface and very dry air above 850mb will allow temperatures to rebound into the low to mid 80s this afternoon. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 50s, except for the low to mid 60s at the beaches. High temperatures Wednesday will range from the low to mid 80s near the coast to the upper 80s to around 90 degrees across the west.
229 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 Dry high pressure with cool mornings and warm afternoons, with temperatures moderating through the weekend.
Sfc ridging will remain in place from the OH Valley SW into Ecntrl TX this afternoon and tonight, before weakening/shifting E of the area Wednesday.
The winds will result as a trough/cold front moves in from the W, increasing the pressure gradient. Wednesday, ahead of an approaching cold front temperatures are expected to climb 15 to 20 degrees above normal as low-level warm air advection spreads northward across Upper Michigan.
Clear skies and light winds overnight will result in temperatures dropping into the low to mid 40s across the region. Locally warmer temperatures in the upper 40s are possible across portions of north central Nebraska (northeast of a line from Chambers to Valentine). No precipitation is expected, however, have increased winds a little for the afternoon as the trough passes. Afternoon temperatures will now range from the mid 60s across the Pine Ridge region up to the low 70s across the south and western portions of the forecast area.
346 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 High pressure will remain in place over New York and Pennsylvania through the weekend with a gradual warming trend and dry weather.