Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
It will be a nice today across southern WI today with high pressure overhead. Variable winds will come around to the east this afternoon, so expect lakeshore areas to remain a bit cooler once again. Temperatures will be just a notch warmer than yesterday. Mid level clouds will slide into at least the western half of Wisconsin tonight as low pressure tracks into the Midwest. Clouds will keep us slightly warmer for the overnight hours, so expect lows in the mid to upper 20s there.
High clouds will increase later this afternoon, with temps in the low/mid 40s expected today. Onshore flow will once again keep temps cooler near the lake.
Expect the ceilings to remain on the low end of VFR. High pressure building across the Great Lakes will keep northwest flow through today with winds increasing to around 10 knots this afternoon. While a mid level wave moves across the TN Valley Sun/Sun night, mid level short wave ridging will traverse Lower Mi. Slightly higher mid level thicknesses on Sunday and full sun will support a little warmer highs (mainly from the mid 30s to 40).
The intrusion of a dryline into Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley today, and the gradual passage of a weak cold front on Sunday, will lead to a downsloping effect off of the neighboring high terrain of Mexico, leading to well above normal high temperatures today and tomorrow. The only opportunity for showers (isolated at best) is expected Sunday afternoon, as the cold front pushes deeper through the BRO CWFA.
But mid/high clouds will then increase from the west during the afternoon ahead of approaching upper level low. Models have trended weaker and further sw with track of upper level low moving into central MO by 18Z Sunday and near the southern tip of IL and southeast MO by sunset Sunday. Lows tonight mostly in the lower 30s, with a few upper 20s from I-74 ne. Cooler highs Sunday in the low to mid 40s, coolest sw CWA where higher chances of precipitation.
This is producing southeasterly winds, which are returning a warmer and more humid airmass back over the area. Temperatures are currently about 10-20 degrees warmer than this time last night, with readings ranging from the middle 50s acrs central and southern LA to the middle 60s acrs lower southeast TX.
546 AM EST Sat Mar 10 2018 Low pressure remains nearly stationary over the Canadian Maritimes this weekend with weak high pressure over the tri-state area.
Otherwise, cooler highs will prevail today compared to yesterday. Generally 10 to 15 degrees cooler from across the eastern Panhandle into western NEB. Cooler air will continue to be ushered in overnight with lows forecast in the mid teens to mid 20s, generally near seasonable values. This high pressure system will allow quiet and dry conditions to continue.
Have backed off the timing of morning PoPs with low- level saturation looking too thin for drizzle, and without any notable isentropic lift or much convergence along the approaching surface cold front, most precipitation should be post-frontal on tonight and Sunday, when the better upper-level forcing arrives. This delay in precipitation and previous over-forecast of cloud cover for today should allow temperatures to rise several degrees warmer than previously forecast, possibly reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s once again this afternoon.
Surface ridging will keep winds on the lighter side today. It will be a nice today across southern WI today with high pressure overhead. Variable winds will come around to the east this afternoon, so expect lakeshore areas to remain a bit cooler once again. Temperatures will be just a notch warmer than yesterday. Mid level clouds will slide into at least the western half of Wisconsin tonight as low pressure tracks into the Midwest. Clouds will keep us slightly warmer for the overnight hours, so expect lows in the mid to upper 20s there.
A quick moving low pressure system will exit Kentucky today. Canadian High pressure is then expected to settle across the Ohio valley as the next work week begins. Surface analysis early this morning shows a warm front and area of low pressure over Kentucky. a broad cyclonic trough aloft looks to remain across the area. mostly cloudy skies should be in play with the broad trough in place aloft tonight and Sunday. BY Sunday night the upper low departs SW Indiana and Kentucky. as strong ridging in place over the western United States result in a highly amplified NW flow of cold air across from Canada to the Ohio Valley.
Surface ridging over the Great Lakes will nudge southward today, pushing a frontal boundary currently near the KY/TN line southward. Warmer air on the surface will also make for a slightly longer period for a change over to snow as the colder air slowly filters in from the northwest.
706 AM EST Sat Mar 10 2018 Dry weather returns this weekend under high pressure. Dry conditions will continue on Sunday as a developing low pressure system begins to lift out of the southeast.
335 AM PST Sat Mar 10 2018 An approaching Pacific disturbance will bring cooler temperatures with rain and high elevation snow Saturday and Sunday.
541 AM EST Sat Mar 10 2018 Low pressure tracking through the Tennessee Valley will bring some snow to areas south of the Ohio River early this morning.
Surface and low level winds will shift to the south to southwest today, bringing much warmer temperatures to South Texas (upper 80s to lower 90s most areas). Throughout the period an upper level low will swing down across the Rockies and Central Plains, sending an associated cold front south.
Scattered showers will accompany strong low level warm advection in advance of an upper low dropping through the Missouri valley tonight. There will be some potential for cell training, but given upstream height falls, the low level front and convective focus should remain progressive. To the north, showers appear a good bet Sunday and Sunday evening around the east and north sides of the parent upper low, as it drops from central MO into middle TN.
536 AM EST Sat Mar 10 2018 Dry weather returns this weekend under high pressure. Dry conditions will continue on Sunday as a developing low pressure system begins to lift out of the southeast.
202 AM PST Sat Mar 10 2018 Warmer Pacific storm brings some light valley rain and higher elevation mountain snow today.
Visible imagery showing high clouds streaming across the area out ahead of a short wave trough which will pass to the south of the area today. There will still be a fair amount of sun mixed with the high clouds this afternoon and temps will continue to rapidly rise into the mid 70s most inland areas.
However, the big theme today will be the gusty north-northwest winds behind the front along with cooler temperatures. Large upper ridge will move slowly into the central Rockies Sunday with mostly clear skies.
A cold front will move through overnight with strong north winds developing behind the front. Cooler and drier air will overspread the area tonight as main upper disturbance drives a cold front south through the area. Cooler temperatures will continue through the early part of the upcoming week as cool Canadian air continues to filter south into the southern Plains.
926 AM EST Sat Mar 10 2018 Even though high pressure is slowly pushing across central Superior and Lake MI, lake effect clouds/snow showers continue in northern MI. Broad troughiness remains across the eastern CONUS anchored by a vertically stacked low over the New Brunswick/Nova Scotia area. Cyclonic flow will continue to ease across the western Great Lakes as high pressure slowly builds into the region through Sunday. High pressure/subsidence/dry air building into the region should largely end any remaining snow showers/flurries tonight. mainly the lower to middle 30s.
As we move into the overnight hours, a broken line of convection should develop along a north to south moving cold front so brought ceilings back down to MVFR after midnight across most locations with the introduction of VCTS at all terminal locations with the exception of the TYR/GGG/SHV and LFK terminals where the convection may not get down to these locations until near 11/12z.
On a regional scale, a cold front was extended east-west across central wyoming, and this front was moving steadily south. Cold front will continue to move south and should reach the Palmer Divide late this morning, and will progress south into NM by early afternoon. It appears at this time that marginal Red Flag conditions will develop over parts of the plains, especially the western 1/2, along with the lower elevations of the southern mtns and San Luis Valley.
One was over SD and the other stronger weakly closed low was over eastern MT. High temperatures will be noticeably cooler, ranging from 30s north to upper 30s and lower 40s south, and a brisk north or northwest wind.
As we move into the overnight hours, a broken line of convection should develop along a north to south moving cold front so brought ceilings back down to MVFR after midnight across most locations with the introduction of VCTS at all terminal locations with the exception of the TYR/GGG/SHV and LFK terminals where the convection may not get down to these locations until near 11/12z. In general, rainfall amounts should be rather light through this afternoon with high temperatures still managing the mid to upper 70s over most areas as a warm front gradually lifts northward through this evening. Cooler air mass will stick around for a few days to start the new work week with low temperatures in the 30s and 40s through mid week as Canadian high pressure settles into the region.
716 AM EST Sat Mar 10 2018 Low pressure remains nearly stationary over the Canadian Maritimes this weekend with weak high pressure over the tri-state area.
Inserted tempo MVFR/TSRA groups at FSM/FYV, where the highest prob of storms is, during the evening hours. Wind shift to occur with cold front late tonight, and conditions trend toward VFR everywhere by the end of the period. Sunday will be much cooler than this afternoon, as highs drop back into the 50s thanks to another reinforcing cold front.
Temperatures will remain right about where they were yesterday, maybe a tad bit cooler. Temperatures will run several degrees cooler thanks to the cool front up north and the system moving overhead down south.
409 AM MST Sat Mar 10 2018 A few morning snow showers are possible over the Little Belt mountains, otherwise expect sunny skies to develop over much of the region today, as an upper level ridge of high pressure begins to build over the region.
Highs will be in the lower to mid 50s. The main concern tonight through Sunday night will be a developing low pressure system that will move southeast from the Missouri Valley. The only area that may escape significant rainfall is southwest Indiana, which will be northeast of the upper low track.
633 AM EST Sat Mar 10 2018 High pressure will prevail today.
In general, rainfall amounts should be rather light through this afternoon with high temperatures still managing the mid to upper 70s over most areas as a warm front gradually lifts northward through this evening. Cooler air mass will stick around for a few days to start the new work week with low temperatures in the 30s and 40s through mid week as Canadian high pressure settles into the region.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 49 59 37 / 70 90 80 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 45 54 36 / 70 80 70 70 Oak Ridge, TN 53 45 54 35 / 70 70 70 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 41 51 34 / 70 50 60 70.
Broad upward forcing will be provided by a weak fast moving short wave trough. The trough axis will swing over southern California between 00Z and 06Z then across southern Nevada and northwest Arizona from 06Z to 15Z. A ridge then quickly develops over our region Sunday and Sunday night behind the exiting trough with a drier airmass spreading overhead.
352 AM MST Sat Mar 10 2018 08z surface analysis had had low over eastern ND and southwest SD with a cold front into northwest WY. Today, upper low spins southeast across northwest SD this morning and then north central NE by this evening.
933 AM EST Sat Mar 10 2018 Low pressure remains nearly stationary over the Canadian Maritimes this weekend with weak high pressure over the tri-state area.
A few tweaks to the high temperatures and sky cover trends were also made. Inserted tempo MVFR/TSRA groups at FSM/FYV, where the highest prob of storms is, during the evening hours. Wind shift to occur with cold front late tonight, and conditions trend toward VFR everywhere by the end of the period. Sunday will be much cooler than this afternoon, as highs drop back into the 50s thanks to another reinforcing cold front.
Given this placement, pressure gradient will not be as tight as we were thinking yesterday, with the highest speeds from the Concho Valley southward into the Edwards Plateau. Cold front still on tap for tonight as well, with north winds increasing between midnight and sunrise.
436 AM PST Sat Mar 10 2018 A weak low pressure system moving through California will tap a moist subtropical air mass to bring periods of rain into Sunday with smaller chances for rain.
After a dry day today, another low pressure system will move in from the south to bring an increased chance for precipitation, mainly to the southern half of the state.
Looks dry today, except possibly a few sprinkles late this afternoon across parts of northeast and central MO in a region of low-mid level warm air advection ahead of an approaching upper level trough in the northern Plains. Precipitation should develop and spread into northeast and central MO this evening as upper level divergence increases over this area ahead of the upper level trough. As the freezing level lowers the rain will likely change over to snow late tonight across parts of northeast MO and west central IL with up one half inch of accumulation possible, mainly on elevated surfaces and grassy areas.
Otherwise, a dry and relatively benign low pressure area is forecast to move southeast over the CWA tonight. Models continue to suggest a deepening trough over the southwest U. This trough will lead to a southeast flow of warm and dry air.
856 AM MST Sat Mar 10 2018 Upper trough pulling to the southeast quickly this morning. Satellite is currently showing the upper low over south central Montana with movement southeast. Models bring another round of snow showers to our far eastern areas today as the upper low moves across the area. The cold front associated with the above disturbance has exited the state and is currently across the western Dakotas.
507 AM CST Sat Mar 10 2018 A warm front is progged to mix slowly north across northern Oklahoma today but remaining south of the Kansas state line where better instability will remain. Cooler and drier conditions will arrive on Sunday with northerly flow resulting in below normal temperatures across the region. Meanwhile a cold front will push southward across central Kansas for later this afternoon with increasing north winds behind the front.
A cold front will move into the region toward the end of the period. Dryline lingers along the I-35 corridor tonight, then a cold front plunges across our area on Sunday. Cold advection and the clouds should keep highs on Sunday 15 to 25 degrees cooler than today's.
Highs will reach the low to mid 30s. A positively tilted upper disturbance/trough will swing southeast across the northern Plains today, reaching the lower Missouri valley tonight. The trough axis is likely to dip south before reaching Wisconsin, so little or no accumulation is expected there.
935 AM EST Sat Mar 10 2018 High pressure will build into the area from the northwest today through Sunday.
628 AM EST Sat Mar 10 2018 Lake effect snow showers will taper off Saturday afternoon, as weak high pressure pushes into the region. Second, high pressure nosing down from the Great Lakes will bring dry air and downward motion into NY/PA. Dry weather Sunday and Sunday night with weak high pressure. The highs are below normal by 5 to 10 degrees and the lows are close to normal.
800 AM MST Sat Mar 10 2018 08z surface analysis had had low over eastern ND and southwest SD with a cold front into northwest WY. Today, upper low spins southeast across northwest SD this morning and then north central NE by this evening.
1050 AM EST Sat Mar 10 2018 Compared to yesterday at this time, temperatures are 10-15 degrees warmer, and dewpoints are 20 degrees higher. Low level moisture has increased, mid level winds have shifted to the southwest, and weak veering has developed in the lowest levels. From synopsis, a ridge of high pressure reaching west- northwest across the Atlantic Bight will slide eastward into the western North Atlantic today and tonight.
Ridging will bring warming aloft today through Sunday, but surface warming will lag behind.
Comparing the high-res models /HREF/ members from 10.
the warm front had lifted north to near the AR and MO state line. Also, rain amounts will be the lowest in the north while highest in the south.
The low- level dry air was more impressive than forecast.
626 AM EST Sat Mar 10 2018 High pressure will build into the area from the northwest today through Sunday.
With good clouds and rain overnight overnight lows will be 5-10 degrees above normal with slightly cooler than normal temperatures Sunday as clouds and rain associated with the slowly sagging cold front will combine with enhanced rainfall rates as PWATs increase 1 to 1.
These should be relatively shirt lived, with west and northwest winds moving in from the west and eroding the low clouds by mid to late morning. Wind speeds will decrease by sunset, then start to swing around to the north and increase in speed as a cold front moves into the area around sunrise. Given this placement, pressure gradient will not be as tight as we were thinking yesterday, with the highest speeds from the Concho Valley southward into the Edwards Plateau. Cold front still on tap for tonight as well, with north winds increasing between midnight and sunrise.
Weak ridging is building over the area today and the subsidence associated with it will result in a dry forecast for the short-term.
As of 20z a cold front remains nearly stationary in western Iowa. Weak theta-e advection over the low-level baroclinic zone in eastern NE/western IA has supported scattered to widespread shower activity for much of the day. This will give the sluggish cold front a decent isallobaric shove eastward through the state. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler and much more in line with seasonal normals. /Tuesday night through Monday/ The cold front and associated showers and thunderstorms discussed in the short term section above should clear out of our forecast area to the southeast by Tuesday night.
704 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 High pressure over the eastern United States will continue to bring mainly warm and dry weather to the region through midweek, while Hurricane Maria stays just off the east coast.
Weak high pressure ridge nosing down the peninsula will gradually weaken the wind fields and marine MOS has winds decreasing to 5-10 knots.
Greater coverage will probably be in the SW areas closer to the higher PW plume moving into S TX and Coastal Bend.
Pressure falls will occur over nw WI tnt with low pressure developing newd across Lake Superior on Tue. Thus the cold front will slowly progress ewd across srn WI. Dynamics and heights falls will be very minimal on Tue as the main upper trough over the nrn and central Rockies lifts newd into the nrn Great Plains and Canada. The passage of a cold front on Tue will bring chances of showers and tstorms but the lowest Cigs should remain from 5-7 kft. With the marginal forcing and shallow layer of moisture around 750 to 800 mb, will keep shower and thunderstorm chances in the low to medium range south central and mainly low southeast Tuesday. The surface cold front does make it through south central Wisconsin Tuesday afternoon.
1207 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 High pressure will bring dry and warm weather through mid-week before the passage of a cold front heralds a return to seasonably-cool conditions. Upper ridging on the nrn side of Hurricane Maria will maintain broad subsidence over the region, leading to dry mid levels even as cirrus has started to markedly increase. After another warm day on Wed, this front will make a swd push Wed evening and help escort the hurricane out to sea, but will also serve to scour out the low-level warmth and moisture from the area. Given a more-realistic dewpoint in the low-mid 60s, instability is more meager, so PoPs with the frontal passage were reduced from the default model blend values. High pressure returns on Thu with a marked cooldown expected.
718 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017 A cold front along the the I-35 corridor is expected to edge slowly towards our area tonight and on Tuesday keeping most of our area unseasonably warm for another 24 to 36 hours. If the frontal boundary slows down any tomorrow, a few more record highs will be broken tomorrow afternoon, especially across the east and southeast areas just ahead of the cold front. Warmest temps, as mentioned above, should be over east central and southeast Illinois ahead of the slow moving front with afternoon highs ranging from the mid 80s northwest to the lower 90s roughly along and especially east of the I-55 corridor.
/issued 241 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday night): South Texas remains between the H5 ridge just offshore and the large-scale along the Rockies. As the ridge shifts east slightly late tonight, the leading edge of the trough will begin to push more moisture into the region aloft. Best chances for rainfall will be further inland closer to the trough, once the seabreeze gets moving. Increased cloud cover closer to the surface and increased cirrus aloft will hold temps down a couple degrees from today, but will still reach the low to mid 90s ahead of the advancing seabreeze.
Aloft, flow remains southwesterly, with satellite imagery showing the main upper low spinning over WY. The southward extending trough axis will continue to gradually swing through the Plains, and though the main axis of precipitation is shifting just of to our east-southeast, at least scattered additional development will remain possible across the CWA through tomorrow morning. At the surface, the main front continues pushing south, as high pressure settles in from the north.
640 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017 Upper low to propagate east from the northern high plains across the forecast area overnight and Tuesday. Model guidance indicating best potential across the remainder of the forecast area from 12-18z Tuesday with upper low passage. Will keep higher pops across the east closer to surface inverted trough. Rain should gradually diminish Tuesday night as upper low continues to propagate northeast.
Tonight and Tuesday The main forecast focus to be on precipitation trends both tonight and Tuesday as a slow-moving cold front shifts across the state. The 19z MSAS surface analysis showed the cold front stretched from roughly Ironwood south-southwest to La Crosse and then farther southwest through central IA. The stalled synoptic pattern across the CONUS finally begins to move starting tonight as the upper trough over the western CONUS lifts northeastward toward the northern Plains and helps shove the cold front into central WI. The upper trough is forecast to move from the northern Plains toward northern sections of the Upper MS Valley/southwest Ontario on Tuesday and gradually weaken in the process.
Highs in the lower 70s northwest and possibly falling temperatures by late morning as cool air arrives there.
Same story this evening for the mid state, with high pressure dominating the region and surface moisture still in place.
Tuesday night should be mainly dry, with a cold front pushing south across the area mainly after midnight. This wind shift precedes the good push of cooler less humid air.