Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
251 PM CDT Sun May 10 2020 Upper level low was located over the Great Lakes region this afternoon as the area founds itself under clouds and cool conditions. Strong winds on the backside of the low have led to frequent gusts of 35 mph and even some as high as 45 mph. Strong winds today were associated with H85 CAA on the backside of this upper level low. Details: Monday night: Sprawling high pressure from the upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley will bring another night of widespread frost. Skies should be clear and winds calm to light, with temperatures dipping into the lower to mid 30s.
Lows will range from the upper 40s in the Golden Triangle to the low 50s along and west of the MS River. Highs on Monday will range from the low 70s in the north to near 80 in the Pinebelt.
225 PM PDT Sun May 10 2020 Dry weather today will be replaced with cooler conditions and precipitation chances this week. Upper level ridging continues to influence our weather today bringing mainly quiet conditions. We are seeing some high clouds over the region out head of our next system and temperatures are running about 5 to 15 degrees cooler than yesterday this time due to onshore flow and falling heights. Quiet and dry conditions continue for today but our weather will become more active tomorrow as an upper level trough begins to push into NorCal. Mid level clouds will increase overnight and tomorrow morning and a cold front will push into western portions of the area around 18z/11 am.
727 PM EDT Sun May 10 2020 Low pressure moving from Lower Michigan across our forecast area will generate fairly widespread rain tonight through the bulk of Monday with the rain mixing with a little wet snow at times.
Areas near the Michigan border may drop to freezing, but frost is not expected tonight.
527 PM MDT Sun May 10 2020 Water vapor shows continued perturbed northwest flow through the northern plains with upper ridge over the far western CONUS. At the surface, ridge continues to build from Canada into the northern plains.
602 PM CDT Sun May 10 2020 (This evening through Monday) The cold front continues to move southeast with northeast/east winds expected at the surface overnight and into Monday. Low levels are not as humid as can be seen in the forecast sounds as well as currently seeing the lower 30s dewpoints moving into northern Oklahoma behind the front.
A cold front was now entering southeast MO and northwest AR. On Monday, with the cold advection behind the front and clouds increasing, afternoon highs will be held in the l-m60s for valleys and u50-a60 atop the higher plateau areas.
An upper level ridge currently over the Intermountain West will de-amplify as it progresses slowly eastward into the Rockies tonight through Monday night. A weak lee trough/cyclone is anticipated to develop in Colorado and persist (more-or-less in place) tonight through Monday night -- presumably in association with small amplitude waves and/or mesoscale convective vorticity maxima (embedded within the ridge over portions of the Desert Southwest/4-Corners) progressing eastward across the Central/Southern Rockies -- though no well-defined upstream features can currently be identified, lending considerable uncertainty to precipitation timing/coverage/chances. Broadly speaking, expect increasing cloud cover tonight with cooler temperatures and overcast skies on Monday -- and a relatively small (10-15F) diurnal range in temperatures from Monday-Monday night.
the surface cold front had shifted south of the Red River with northerly winds common across the CWA.
Latest surface analysis had a weak dry cold front across northwest Mississippi that is progged to continue moving south into our CWA after midnight. Model consensus has the cold front just south of Interstate 20 by sunrise. Temperatures were adjusted warmer earlier this evening ahead of the front but no other changes were needed. Lows will range from the upper 40s in the Golden Triangle to the low 50s along and west of the MS River. Highs on Monday will range from the low 70s in the north to near 80 in the Pinebelt.
The broad mid level trough across FL will also move eastward and shift the mid layer lift and vorticity offshore.
907 PM EDT Sun May 10 2020 Thunderstorm chances will increase this evening as a cold front advances eastward. Much cooler air will also filter in behind the showers, so temperatures have been updated as well. A surge of cold air (-5c at 850mb) on the backside of the low will support a change/mix of rain to snow for most areas by early Monday morning. Despite the cool air aloft, temperatures will stay near or just above freezing; a Freeze Warning will not be issued in the ridges with this forecast package.
A few sprinkles are possible tonight with a cooler than normal pattern continuing into mid week.
700 PM EDT Sun May 10 2020 Thunderstorm chances will increase this evening as a cold front advances eastward. Strong southwest flow (warm, moist advection) near the surface and cold air (-27 C at 500mb) embedded in the mid level trough, will increase low and mid-level lapse rates and help destabilization of the atmosphere in eastern Ohio/western PA/northern panhandle of WV. Marginal severe hail is not out of the question despite limited CAPE aloft; low-level freezing levels will ensure that ice particles reach the ground. A surge of cold air (-5c at 850mb) on the backside of the low will support a change/mix of rain to snow for most areas by early Monday morning. Despite the cool air aloft, temperatures will stay near or just above freezing; a Freeze Warning will not be issued in the ridges with this forecast package.
927 PM CDT Sun May 10 2020 A cold front is currently pushing through the Mid-South at this hour. These clouds have stunted cooling, and are therefore are running quite a bit warmer than the current forecast. Expect lows to bottom out in the low to mid 40s areawide by Monday morning. /issued 346 PM CDT Sun May 10 2020/ Current satellite imagery shows a few clouds moving into eastern Arkansas as a weak cold front pushes through the area.
929 PM CDT Sun May 10 2020 A weak cold front currently just south of Nashville, as of 02z, is moving southward through Tennessee and will reach northern Alabama by midnight. On Monday, with the cold advection behind the front and clouds increasing, afternoon highs will be held in the l-m60s for valleys and u50-a60 atop the higher plateau areas.
For Monday E/SE 5-15KT will close the day at our terminals with fair skies as the reinforcing high pressure drifts into the OH valley, keeping us VFR into another day. /Tonight through Monday Night/ A weak cold front will move through the region this afternoon into the evening hours. High pressure will build southward into the region in wake of the front and northerly surface winds will help to reinforce the dry airmass in place. However, not expecting much in the way of cooler air behind this front either, so expecting slightly warmer temps tonight with overnight lows in the lower 50s. Dry conditions will remain on Monday with slightly cooler temps across our northern zones, but highs should still rise into the 70s across the region, with near 80 degree temps across our Deep East Texas and Central Louisiana zones.
Unfortunately, the combination of light winds, dewpoints in 20s, and mostly clear skies for much of the overnight hours, will allow us to drop back down into the low to mid 30s by Monday morning.
/issued 346 PM CDT Sun May 10 2020/ Current satellite imagery shows a few clouds moving into eastern Arkansas as a weak cold front pushes through the area.
An upper ridge currently overhead will slowly shift east on Monday and southwest flow aloft will strengthen.
This may play a big role in overnight low temperatures depending on how long it persists, though we believe at this time it will still erode in time for peak cooling to take place and temperatures to fall below freezing for everyone.
Another beautiful day across the mid state with sunny skies and temperatures in the lower to middle 60s for the Plateau to around 70 for Nashville and along the river. There could still be a few showers along the TN/KY state line and across the Plateau later this afternoon as the atmosphere tries to ring out some moisture as a trof moves by. Weak high pressure tomorrow with northwest winds. so temperatures will be 5-10 degrees cooler than today.
1030 PM EDT Sun May 10 2020 A weak, dry cold front will move through early Monday morning, followed by high pressure into the weekend. A cold front late this evening extended from western Virginia into central Tennessee. Lows mainly in the lower to mid 50s, with near 60 near the coast.
/issued 251 PM CDT Sun May 10 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday night): 500mb ridging continues to build in across the Southern Plains with northwest flow across Deep South Texas providing plenty of dry air and subsidence above 850mb and through the atmospheric column. Near the surface, weak offshore troughing continues with just enough moisture between 850 and 700mb for a few isolated showers this afternoon.
Plenty of light rain showers have prevailed this evening over the Keys, which lie on the cooler north side of the front. The front will finally get pushed off to the southeast on Monday and exit the waters later in the day, and a continental high pressure center will build into the Tennesssee Valley.
1039 PM EDT Sun May 10 2020 Low pressure moving from Lake Erie across our forecast area will generate fairly widespread rain through the bulk of Monday with the rain mixing with some wet snow at times.
/Issued 206 PM CDT Sun May 10 2020/ A cold front is making its way south over west central AR and southeast OK this afternoon. Cooler air behind this cold front, combined with increasing clouds and rain chances beginning late tonight into Monday, will likely yield record low max temps for a few locations across NE OK and NW AR for tomorrow.
720 PM EDT Sun May 10 2020 A weak, dry cold front will move through early Monday morning, followed by high pressure into the weekend. Can't rule out a few more clouds late as a weak cold front pushes into the area late. Continued to favor the cooler side of model guidance given recent trends with lows likely ranging from near 50 inland to near 60 around the coast, probably coldest in the Francis Marion National Forest.
An upper level low off the coast continues to place the forecast area under an unstable southerly flow.
This will set up a weak trough across srn WI for the afternoon/evening hours. Medium Expecting any lingering cu/sc to dissipate with trough exiting and overall wind flow looking weak. Medium Mid level cyclonic shear zone proggd across the area with weak high pressure in control.
1122 PM MDT Sun May 10 2020 Water vapor shows continued perturbed northwest flow through the northern plains with upper ridge over the far western CONUS. At the surface, ridge continues to build from Canada into the northern plains. Precip will wain during the afternoon/evening, but will then redevelop late Monday night through Tuesday as warm front lifts through. Warmer temps will return for mid to late week with highs generally in the 60s to lower 70s, but the flow will remain unsettled as it transitions from zonal to southwesterly.
411 AM EDT Mon May 11 2020 Areas of light rain with some embedded heavier showers continue across the Keys island chain and southward into the Straits of Florida, with only a few showers over the Gulf waters west and northwest of the Lower Keys. Cloudy skies prevail across the Keys, with temperatures holding in the lower 70s, and winds on land mostly from the northeast at 10 to 15 mph. Water vapor imagery shows a weak mid level trough moving eastward across the southeast Gulf of Mexico, with the western edge of the mid/high cloud shield ahead of this feature now approaching the Keys. For today, expect improving conditions as the mid level trough axis moves east across the Keys, with the deep layered moisture and lift shifting to our south and east.
This will filter across the area later this evening, keeping the dry and cooler than normal temperatures through Tuesday morning.
Since the forecast point of interest tonight is whether or not we set record low temps, will be interesting to see if clouds diminish as expected or if they'll last long enough to keep some areas warmer than forecast. This may play a big role in overnight low temperatures depending on how long it persists, though we believe at this time it will still erode in time for peak cooling to take place and temperatures to fall below freezing for everyone.
Some places have dipped below freezing while others remain in the mid to upper 30s.
1212 AM EDT Mon May 11 2020 A weak, dry cold front will move through early Monday morning, followed by high pressure into the weekend. Winds will begin to increase 1-2 hours before daybreak as a cold front approaches.
VFR will continue through the taf period as high pressure moves in from the northwest.
It will be a bit cooler today with a light Northerly breeze.
We will see a weak cold front swinging in from the north later this morning, which will not have much impact to the weather across the area other than keeping winds continued from the north. Same small adjustment was made to afternoon Td's with a bit more mixing again today keeping MinRH's on the low side (generally 30's for all portions of SE LA and S MS). Regardless of increasing low-level moisture advection in the low-levels, persistent EML/Subsidence inversion right at and above the base of the LCL will help put a cap on any freely rising parcels, keeping the day dry (Tc in the upper 80's generally).
/28/ Latest surface analysis had a weak dry cold front across northwest Mississippi that is progged to continue moving south into our CWA after midnight. Model consensus has the cold front just south of Interstate 20 by sunrise. Temperatures were adjusted warmer earlier this evening ahead of the front but no other changes were needed. Lows will range from the upper 40s in the Golden Triangle to the low 50s along and west of the MS River. Highs on Monday will range from the low 70s in the north to near 80 in the Pinebelt.
After Tuesday, warmer and wetter conditions can be expected with a frontal system meandering in the area.
323 AM EDT Mon May 11 2020 Low pressure over the Great Lakes will swing into the area today bringing showers followed by a cold front this evening.
301 AM EDT Mon May 11 2020 Early week cold will moderate to much warmer weather for the latter half of the week. Rain showers will change to, or mix with snow in areas today as Showers are redeveloping with the advance of mid level low pressure off the Lakes. Cold advection will support a mix/change to snow but no appreciable accumulation off the higher ridges is expected given lingering warmth in the boundary layer. An inch or two are anticipated on those higher ridges.
If it like it warmer, hang tight. By this time tomorrow night, we could start to see a few sprinkles in the west and as we move through the day Tuesday, additional moisture and very weak lift (we remain north of the warm front) will provide a chance for light rain to most of Middle TN. PoPs and rainfall totals will remain on the low side as this shouldn't be a big rainmaker, but Tuesday will likely be another cool, dreary day.
Very dry air will once again move into the area over the next 24 hours behind a cold front. High pressure and a dry airmass will continue across the area.
S/wv trough axis currently crossing the Lower Colorado River will provide enough in the way of dynamics to keep our weak to moderate convection going for several more hours. In fact, some meso-models indicate convection will persist nearly all night ahead of trough axis, not ending near the New Mexico border until 12Z. Behind the s/wv trough, low amplitude ridging arrives Monday afternoon, which will severely limit any additional convective activity.
Moisture channel satellite imagery shows upper low low/vort max has now rotated to vicinity of Chicago area, with weak troughs rotating around it. The enhanced shower development also appears to be ahead of second trough, that extends to the west into northern IA from the upper low.
A weak cold front currently just south of Nashville, as of 02z, is moving southward through Tennessee and will reach northern Alabama by midnight. On Monday, with the cold advection behind the front and clouds increasing, afternoon highs will be held in the l-m60s for valleys and u50-a60 atop the higher plateau areas. On Tuesday, a return to south- southeast flow and modest warm advection will push highs into the u60s to a70 in valleys and l60s atop the higher plateau areas. A warm front will develop in response to pressure falls in advance of a short amplitude wave that evolves well south of the main upper jet.
338 AM EDT Mon May 11 2020 Quiet weather conditions expected through the week as recent period of Eastern CONUS troughing transitions to more zonal flow during the week. Remnant surface boundary just south of the Peninsula expected to weaken over the next few days while another cold front drops southeast later today bringing drier air mass into the region through mid week.
225 AM CDT Mon May 11 2020 A cold front continues to drift to the south-southeast this morning, with winds increasing to around 10 mph. Additionally, northerly flow will advect cooler temps, with afternoon highs only rising into the lower to 60s. This will limit the radiational cooling overnight, however temperatures will still drop into the lower to mid 40s.
Overnight low temperatures tonight (Monday night) are expected to be in the low to mid 30s which is also 10 to 15 degrees below normal.
Morning clouds should clear from west to east with strong heating occurring by early afternoon over the higher terrain.
Clearing tonight as the gradient relaxes and high pressure builds in. Monday should be a mainly quiet weather day as high pressure continues to build in. Below normal temperatures Monday through Tuesday given the source and strength of the high pressure system. It will be an unsettled and warmer period. A warm front will lift north across the region at the beginning of the medium range, with the front staying mainly to our north or near our northern border counties late in the week and into the weekend.
253 AM MDT Mon May 11 2020 Current surface map shows high pressure across the Dakota, with stationary front backed up against the Rockies. For tonight into Tuesday, stationary front begins to move east- northeast as warm front. Broad area of isentropic lift sets up ahead of warm front with precipitation becoming more widespread. though near surface temperatures slightly above freezing will result in some pockets of rain. Lack of seeding may result in a brief period of freezing rain/freezing drizzle. Ptype transitions to all rain Tuesday morning/early afternoon as warm front moves into western South Dakota. With warm front into western South Dakota, narrow axis of instability sets up across northeast Wyoming. Flow becomes zonal for the remainder of the week with transition back to warmer/spring-like pattern across the Northern Plains.
1003 PM CDT Sun May 10 2020 Clouds are struggling to clear across the eastern 2/3 of the forecast area keeping temperatures warmer than previously expected. Clouds and cooler than average temperatures will be the main story with afternoon highs in the 50s. A brief lull in precipitation is expected late Tuesday ahead of additional showers moving in as a warm front lifts north of the forecast area.
320 AM CDT Mon May 11 2020 Another nice day is in store across the region as broad troughing aloft transitions to zonal flow by tomorrow morning. High pressure will be at the surface just to our north, leaving northerly winds in place for much of today. Another cool night will be in store in the east but with moisture slowly returning, lows in the west will start to inch back into the lower to middle 50s.
There remains plenty of uncertainty as we move into Wed in how quickly the warm front mixes north and scours out the unseasonably cool air. While confidence in TSRA is low, the highest chance looks to be through 12z/MON and again 00-12z/TUE. Eventually, the low clouds should give way to an increased risk of SHRA/TSRA mid to late-week.
222 AM EDT Mon May 11 2020 A moisture-starved cold front will cross the southern middle Atlantic this morning. Canadian high pressure will follow and build overhead through early Tuesday, then offshore. Lows will be much warmer tonight than last night, ranging from the mid 40s to the mid 50s. Highs Monday will range from the mid-60s across the Piedmont to the low 70s in the Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain, which is 10-15 degrees below seasonal normals. Many areas of the Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain could lower into in the 30s, while areas to the south and east lower into the low 40s.
A weak cold front will push across the area today as high pressure builds into the se states from the nw. High temperatures today will be mostly in the low/mid 80s. Temperatures will be slightly cooler tonight with lows ranging from the upper 40s over interior se Ga to the 50s across ne Fl and coastal se Ga.
1141 PM CDT Sun May 10 2020 Clouds are struggling to clear across the eastern 2/3 of the forecast area keeping temperatures warmer than previously expected. Clouds and cooler than average temperatures will be the main story with afternoon highs in the 50s. A brief lull in precipitation is expected late Tuesday ahead of additional showers moving in as a warm front lifts north of the forecast area.
MRM The pattern aloft that provided the Midwest with unseasonably cool temperatures over the past week will continue to break down over next few days as the western US ridge shifts eastward and flattens, and the eastern US trough moves into the western Atlantic.
We are on track to see a cold start to the morning, with lows generally in the lower to middle 20s. Good lapse rates and low dew points in the lower single digits will allow efficient mixing, with 850 to 700 mph winds generally around 20 knots in many of the hi-res soundings. Low RH values will once more impact portions of the region Tuesday; however the lowest values will be in northwestern and west-central Minnesota. We should see increasing cloudiness later Tuesday as our next upper low approaches the region.
Dry and warm conditions will give way to rain and much cooler conditions.
Rain chances wl expand acrs most of the FA Mon ngt and Tue as a stronger upr lvl trof affects the region. Incrsd lift assocd with this feature, along with an apchg warm fnt lifting sloly NWD, wl result in overrunning rainfall, with the highest PoPs/QPF expected generally NW of the I-30/Highway 67/167 corridor.
(Today and tonight) Unseasonably cool weather will continue over most of the region today, especially across northern and central Oklahoma where high temperatures will average 20 to 25 degrees cooler than average. The frontal boundary that ushered in the cooler and drier air yesterday extended west to east across northern Texas, just south of the Red River. Mid-upper level trough will progress from the Rockies tonight, increasing deeper warm/moist advection resulting in widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms.
A ridge of high pressure will build into the area from the Canadian High Plains on Monday and Monday night. This dry air will help produce some chilly nights, with overnight lows both tonight and Monday night radiating into the low to mid 20s, with a few teens in our local cold spots. With the high pressure ridge overhead, winds will be light, but with the warming going on and the already dry atmosphere, we are looking at minimum RH values once again in the 15 to 25 percent range.
Mild conditions will remain in place through Tuesday, before somewhat cooler weather with a chance of showers arrives midweek.
This will keep cooler conditions in place across through Tuesday.
Sub-freezing temps expected once again Monday night into Tuesday morning, especially over the eastern CWA where less cloud cover and lighter winds are expected.
917 PM MDT Sun May 10 2020 Updated forecast mainly to reflect cooler temperatures tomorrow. An upper level low will be situated along the Pacific northwest coast allowing for a southwest flow aloft to prevail over the forecast area.