Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1152 AM CST Mon Nov 6 2017 330 AM CST Quiet and cooler weather is in store today and tonight, with variable though increasing clouds after a partly cloudy start to the day for some areas. Expansive high pressure near the Minnesota/Dakotas border will spread southeast. MAV/MET MOS guidance indicates that if clouds dissipate enough, then with light winds under high pressure, lows in the 20s could be more widespread over interior northern Illinois.
351 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017 High pressure will build across the area tonight, and will remain in control over the southern Great Lakes region through midweek. Low pressure slides east through the Ohio valley on Tuesday.
The low clouds and fog should gradually burn off by mid to late morning with partly cloudy and warm conditions expected the remainder of the day. Sufficient low level moisture and daytime heating may support a few isolated showers (Pops 20 percent) over far eastern interior locations during the afternoon, but overall coverage and rainfall amounts will remain quite low with temperatures again climbing into the lower to mid 80s.
08Z water vapor imagery showed an upper trough moving into the northern Rockies and a second upper trough moving through the New England states. At the surface, high pressure centered over the northern plains stretched into northern OK. Dry air in the lower atmosphere makes it unlikely these radar returns will amount to much of anything. For today and tonight, models are in agreement that zonal flow aloft will continue while high pressure at the surface remains over the area. However the model progs do not seem to have as strong a push to the high pressure as current 850MB profiler data suggests, still showing north wind into southwest MO. Models bring a reinforcing push of high pressure into the state tonight. Tuesday -- A mid-level trough will be positioned across the northern Rockies Tuesday morning.
High pressure across the northeast Gulf and offshore across the Atlantic will continue weak N-NE low level flow across the area. Highs will reach the lower 80s along the coast and mid 80s for the interior.
Elevated instability (1000 j/kg MU cape) moving north into the area along a elevated warm front combined with adequate deep layer shear (50kts 0-6km) and a speed max moving through the area is creating an arc of showers and storms across southern missouri.
At 12z this morning, a cold front stretched from near Red Boiling Springs, to near Nashville and Linden, and was moving south. The cold front will continue to move slowly southward today, with the best chance for showers and thunderstorms at CSV (mainly between 12z and 15z).
The cold front has cleared the entire area and pushed all of the convection southeast of the area. North winds area pushing much cooler air into the region, and with no sunshine expected today, little warming is expected. North winds and overcast skies will keep things cool Tuesday and Tuesday night, but temperatures will remain well above freezing, so there is no concern for wintry precipitation at this time.
Winds will be variable at times, generally less than 10kts with a cold front draped west to east across the middle of the state, sagging south with time. The cold front continues to sag south early this Mon morning. Today Through Tuesday Night The cold front continues to slowly drop south through central sections of the state early this Mon morning. along with cooler temps. The cold front will continue to drop south into SRN sections of the state by midday before stalling over SRN AR this afternoon. temps north of the front will remain generally in the low 50s to low 60s for much of the CWA.
1203 PM CST Mon Nov 6 2017 High pressure trying to build into forecast area behind yesterday's cold front. Also, added some low PoPs to account for radar returns & progs from the high-resolution models. High pressure ridge over the Missouri River Valley in the Upper Midwest this morning building into the region. Rest of the week remains far cooler than recently, and slightly cooler than normal.
326 PM CST Mon Nov 6 2017 Latest Rap and Satellite imagery showed flat ridging through the atmosphere. A stationary cold front was positioned just north of the forecast area where there was a big difference in temps. For Tuesday expect the chances of rain to spread south to around the interstate 20 corridor as the cold front makes it way slowly to the south. Highs on Tuesday will range from the Lower 70s north to the lower 80s south.
The axis of this ridge runs generally NNW to SSE through central Iowa and central Missouri. A few scattered showers are forming well above the low/mid level dry air, but cloud bases in the 10 to 15 kft range, with the aforementioned dry air below the high bases - evident in area forecast soundings - may yield a sprinkle or two, but overall measurable precipitation is not anticipated with any of the early morning radar echoes. With normal highs in generally in the lower to middle 50s, temperatures over the next few days in the middle to upper 40s will represent a 5-10 degree departure from normal, as the cool air remains in place through at least the weekend.
1033 AM MST Mon Nov 6 2017 Current surface shows high pressure across northern Montana into the eastern Dakotas. For today, positive tilt upper trof drops through the northern plains with reinforcing shot of cold air. Upper trof shifts south of the area tonight with snow ending.
337 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017 Current conditions around the region feature an exiting cold front which has just about moved into VA at this time. This will keep the area under extensive cloud cover and despite the cooler air filtering into the area, rather warmer than it could be due to some insulation. Cooler air in the north will begin to push southeast as the front pushes back down to the south.
257 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017 Rain over southern Vermont will come to an end early this evening as a cold front exits the area to the east.
108 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017 High pressure in the forecast area will weaken today and tonight ahead of an approaching cold front.
Forecast soundings indicate the low levels are quite dry (below 700 mb) so may see virga.
Overnight low temperatures should once again drop into the low single digits north.
105 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017 Issued 620 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017 High pressure will build into the Great Lakes for most of this week but temperatures will be cool with highs mainly in the 40s and lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Highs today will be much cooler than yesterday, and around 10 to 15 degrees below normal for early November. Mdls are in good agreement at the beginning of the period, however, the NAM quickly becomes an outlier with the approach of the srn trof currently over the nwrn U. As it does, enuf WAA may accompany the fnt to generate precip, but have kept PoPs on the low side for now.
230 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017 A ridge of high pressure will then build across northern Pa tonight while a disturbance tracks south of the region on Tuesday, bringing a chance of showers across central and southern portions.
332 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017 Rain over southern Vermont will come to an end early this evening as a cold front exits the area to the east.
The lower atmosphere is pretty dry so thinking they would be few to sct MVR ceilings, if they even develop. Some virga is upstream but the lower levels are too dry for any precip.
06z subjective sfc analysis shows ridge of high pressure elbowing into Iowa early today. Meanwhile lee side low pressure development in southeast Wyoming and an associated warm front promoting return flow from the surface to H850 mb. expect a more winter like feel to the high once again with afternoon readings in the lower 30s northwest to the lower 40s in the south. Lows tonight will remain below normal by about 5 to 10 degrees with readings in the lower 20s northwest to the upper 20s in the southeast.
239 PM CST Mon Nov 6 2017 Today will be the last day of near record warmth before a cold front arrives tomorrow.
Sounding show the lower levels on the atmosphere are very dry so not expecting any precip. Light north winds will dominate tonight as the high remains stationary.
250 PM CST Mon Nov 6 2017 WV imagery this afternoon showing that the large scale pattern has amplified a bit since yesterday in part to a positive tilt trof currently extending from the Pac NW into central Canada. a large area of high pressure was in control over the majority of the eastern half of the CONUS.
Cloudy skies to persist tonight with lows in the low 30s far north to the mid 40s far south. A high pressure center over the central CONUS will keep the active frontal zone well to the south of the area. Models are in better agreement today compared to yesterday regarding the track of a disturbance moving from the Pacific Northwest into the southeastern CONUS and the speed of an upper trough passing through the Great Lakes towards the end of the week, and only minimal effects from these features are expected across the LSX CWA.
Cold front as of 16z was located near a TKI. A cold front will edge closer tonight and may trigger some light shwrs or DZ N which will work South during Tuesday.
Air temperatures in most Keys island communities are in the lower 80s, with dewpoint temperatures in the lower 70s. An upper-level composite analysis early this afternoon reveals a deep layer mean anticyclone centered over Mexico with deep northerly flow over South Florida. During the next few days, the deep layer anticyclone over Mexico is expected to break down as a trough in the polar westerlies migrates across the southern United States.
1103 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017 Drier and cooler today as the cold front moves east of the area. The cold front has all but cleared our eastern periphery and temperatures will fall in its wake. Northwest flow in the low-levels will keep low stratus in for most, but some scattering and mixing will lead to breaks by early afternoon. Some downlake stratocu is expected to stay just north of I-80 before the low-level flow shifts northeasterly. Given that upstream dewpoint temperatures are in the low to mid 30s, areas that clear out should efficiently drop under calming winds. The fly in the ointment for the low temperature forecast tonight is that another wave will approach early tomorrow morning, bringing clouds and eventual rain back to the area.
For tonight low clouds expand across much of the area and a cold front moves in from the north. Will continue to mention a mix of rain, freezing rain and snow. As it stands right now blending about 20 pieces of guidance supports highs in the low to mid 30s along and west of the CO/KS border with upper 30s over the east. Right now have a mix of light rain, freezing rain and snow in the morning with generally light snow across the west/southwest during the afternoon. A mix of freezing rain and snow (primarily snow) possible during the night. Low temperatures in the low to mid 20s.
This front is not expected to get much of a southward push until late in the day Tuesday as a strong trough ejects eastward from the Rockies. Cold front as of 16z was located near a TKI.
This should be the last day of threatened record high temps as a slow moving, yet potent, cold front will be working its way into our region overnight from the north and west. Given the shallow nature of the cooler post frontal airmass, the front has had a difficult time clearing the Ouachitas which is often the case with these airmasses but the airmass should win out overnight. Isentropic lift over top a much cooler boundary layer Tue Night appears to be much weaker than what the models showed this time yesterday so have shaved pops slightly for Tue Night but regardless of when the precip begins, Wed looks very wet as PVA will be very strong with the above mentioned trough as it moves into the Mid Red River Valley.
An upper level ridge will build over the area today and tonight, then shift into Eastern Washington Tuesday morning.
In addition, a cold front will drop south across the area late this afternoon/early evening. Meanwhile a sfc lee trough will begin to develop along the front range with some downslope component. Thus should begin to see moderating temps over nern CO with highs ranging fm the lower to mid 30s over the far nern plains with lower to mid 40s around the Denver area. Across nern CO it will be dry with both the ECMWF and GFS showing a sfc lee trough over the plains. As a result they have highs in the 40s over nern CO which is 5 to 10 degrees warmer than current blended solutions. A cold front will bring lower clouds and areas of snow after 00Z.
The H5 pattern showed a broad trough across much of the U. with stronger embedded waves in the trough over Missouri and toward Washington state with ripple across Idaho/Wyoming/Colorado. The models are excellent agreement with a 100-120 mi wide band of 1 to 4 inches of snow and a 50mi wide band for the higher amounts centered on a line from York toward Lincoln toward Hamburg, IA.
Icing so far has been limited to exposed objects and some bridges and overpasses, while accumulations of snow and sleet on top of that has combined to make roads slick. Also, the further south you go, there looks to be a lack of ice in the cloud layer based on soundings and as such there could be some freezing drizzle at times. This system looks to be a quick hitter as high pressure builds in from the northwest later Sunday and into Christmas day.
1023 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2017 The cold front has moved east of the area, with much colder air spreading into the area. Cold front is very well defined with narrow line of convection that is moving through Acadiana this morning. Much colder tonight but temperatures likely to stay well above freezing.
Low-level wind shear will be a threat at area terminals tonight followed by a cold front passage first at KCDS, then KPVW and finally KLBB around daybreak Sunday. /issued 321 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2017/ Zonal flow will persist through the next 24 hours before a passing trough to our north shifts the flow regime a bit more northwesterly on Sunday morning.
223 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2017 Tranquil early winter night on tap as broad North American upper trough continues to establish itself. With weaker short wave trough dropping south, associated front will be working closer and closer. Main arctic cold front will move through the area on Christmas eve.
Expect fair weather with warming temperatures through the holiday weekend as high pressure builds along the west coast. High pressure was located off the California coast with troughing from the Rocky Mountains eastward this morning. High pressure building along the West Coast will bring warmer high temperatures today and Sunday.
BMickelson Synopsis: The large Canadian low pressure trough will continue to keep NE Montana in a NW flow aloft.
Winds will remain strong over the higher elevations with gusts in excess of 60 mph possible. A strong cold front is forecast to drop south across the Plains late this evening with strong north winds and cold air overnight.
A surface cold front will approach the area after 24/1700Z. Surface winds will increase and become northerly with the associated cold frontal passage. Yet another cold front will arrive the morning of Christmas Eve, temps will be near steady in the afternoon.
250 PM MST Sat Dec 23 2017 Upper level analysis has large trof across much of the CONUS thanks to a stationary deep Hudson Bay low.
Deep mid level trough to swing through this period with some jet dynamics at play.
The broken line of showers that accompanied the cold front has moved east of the Middle Texas Coastal Waters this morning. Cooler and drier air is filtering into the region with temperatures in the 40s and 50s. High pressure will settle in across the region today with northerly winds gradually diminishing over the Gulf Waters.
First accumulating snow of the season expected Sunday Main attention continues to be the inbound wave seen over the Northern Rockies on water vapor this afternoon, and developing prospects for snowfall across the lower Missouri Valley early Sunday morning. Fortunately models have come into better agreement on where the heaviest snow should set up, with all near-term solutions advertising the highest accumulations up along, and north of the Route 36 corridor. Snow to quickly exit stage right Sunday afternoon as high pressure builds over our region in its wake. Mid-range solutions advertise another weak storm system approaching our area late in the day on Christmas as an arctic boundary slides south towards our region, however its completely possible that all this amounts to is a few flurries across far northwest Missouri given the dry air in place with strengthening high pressure.
359 PM EST Sat Dec 23 2017 Low pressure will cross the region tonight. High pressure will build across the region Sunday.
Expect mainly 1 to 2 inches of snow with the higher amounts along the Nebraska border. The mid level trough quickly moves off to the east on Sunday morning with clearing skies by mid day. Lows tonight will range from the mid teens to the lower 20s. Highs Sunday will generally remain below freezing. The upcoming week will be characterized by cold temperatures in place with high temperatures that struggle to get above the freezing mark with periods of somewhat persistent cloud cover helping to make Christmas feel more like Christmas even though snow was prior to the actual day. Upper level semi-permanent low pressure (polar vortex) will maintain its grip on the Hudson Bay region.
1139 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2017 Colder air is settling into the area on the heels of a cold front that passed through the forecast area during the afternoon and evening hours. A broad upper level trough over the area will send another surge of cold air in our direction tonight, accompanied by a band of cold air advection and frontogenesis driven snow showers from this afternoon through this evening. The clouds overnight have kept our temperatures from dropping off, but they will not recover much today either as even though we should see decreasing cloud cover for at least this morning, the approaching cold front will just bring them back again this afternoon and I expect greater cloud cover for tonight and Saturday.
1158 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2017 For the 18Z TAFs, a strong cold front will move across the terminal sites tonight with gusty north winds in its wake for several hours.
As the upper trough strengthens over the Plains and moves eastward toward the Mississippi River Sunday morning, the snow band will elongate southward and reach toward the I-70 corridor by mid morning or so.
The back edge of the low cloud deck is draped over our far western tier of Texas counties and is moving Eastward very slowly. Thinking with the low clouds holding for much of the area during peak heating our highs will be affected with CCA still in place.
Total accumulations of a trace to under two inches expected with the higher amounts generally from Benkelman to Hill City and points north. The pressure gradient between incoming high pressure and low pressure to our south will create breezy to perhaps windy conditions generally along and west of the CO/KS border through early Sunday morning. High temperatures should reach the low 30s for much of the area. The central CONUS will be under fast northwest flow between a trough over eastern Canada and a ridge near southern California. There appears to be some potential for more of a wintry mix of freezing/frozen precipitation next Saturday, but confidence is lacking at that time range for anything more than a cursory mention at this point.
While the brunt of forcing will remain well to our northeast with this system, as will any moisture within dendritic growth layer, there could be just enough lift on the southern end of the system to produce some light freezing drizzle across areas near the KS/OK border late tonight.
312 PM EST Sat Dec 23 2017 Low pressure off the Maine coast will exit into the maritimes tonight as high pressure gradually builds in from the west later tonight and Sunday.
328 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2017 Cold front moved through without much fanfare this morning. Lows tonight should drop into the low to mid 40s for most northern areas, and into the mid to upper 40s most southern areas. Efficient radiative cooling and cold air advection should help temperatures drop into the 30s for roughly the northern half of the area, and into the lower 40s for most of the southern half of the area.
237 PM EST Sat Dec 23 2017 Cold front almost through the area this afternoon with much colder air filtering in. Strong upper level trough reinforces cold air for Christmas, with a quick dose of snow. Moderate to heavy rainfall is pulling out of the region with cold front pressing through. Tomorrow will be cooler with mostly quiet conditions early, then upper trough approaches tomorrow afternoon with rain and snow showers developing.
BMickelson Previous discussion: An upper level trough and surface cold front pushing through the area may generate enough lift for isolated snow showers at times through the weekend.
Lingering snow showers in the higher terrain of far southeast Owyhee County and extreme southern Twin Falls County will last until around 5 pm MST. The next system comes in the form of a warm front moving through the region from Sunday afternoon through Christmas Day. Snow continues this morning in southern Idaho along a southward moving cold front.
KDRT will have E/SE winds 10 knots or less late this afternoon into Sunday morning ahead of the cold front. Northerly winds will continue today but will be light and southerly by tomorrow morning before the passage of another cold front. A short wave moving across the Plains Sunday forces a strong cold frontal passage midday to afternoon.
High temperatures so far this afternoon range from the lower to mid 50s inland to the upper 50s at the coast. Slightly warmer temperatures can be expected tomorrow ahead of the next cold front with a majority of the area (especially central and south) reaching the lower to mid 60s.
Could see a few breaks in the cloud cover this afternoon in northeast Arkansas, but otherwise looks to stay mostly cloudy with temperatures nearly steady in the low to mid 40s. A strong trailing cold front stretches southwest from the low pressure center across west Tennessee into northeast Mississippi. This will help to push a reinforcing arctic cold front across the area on Sunday. Arctic high pressure will build in Christmas Eve night and Christmas Day with clearing skies and cold temperatures. JLH 12Z TAFs Precipitation chances expected to end this morning as high pressure builds in at TAF sites behind a cold front.
1248 PM EST Sat Dec 23 2017 Rain is expected with crossing low pressure today. In wake of low pressure crossing midday there could be a short window of wind gusts in the mountains in the 30 knot range given pressure rises between 19-22Z. Advisory level snow of 2-4 inches is possible near the I 80 corridor and in the ridges, as the flow shifts NW and results in some lake and terrain enhancement on the wrn side of the departing low Sunday night.
Meanwhile, a band of wintry precip conts to make its way Ewd acrs Nrn AR early this mrng, assocd with the upper trof axis. Cannot rule out up to an inch of snow in parts of N-Central AR, mainly in the higher elevations.
223 PM EST Sat Dec 23 2017 Its shaping up to be a white Christmas as low pressure takes aim on the region Christmas Eve with light snow continuing into Christmas morning especially in the mountains. Baroclinic zone is through the CWA with winds shifting to the north and temps ranging from the mid 30s in eastern Ohio to the lower 40s in the mountains. The higher elevations with lack of deep moisture could see a brief period between 23Z-3Z of freezing drizzle, however after reviewing bufr soundings it there is enough moisture above to feed lower clouds creating snizzle.