Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR BENEATH THIS RIDGE. TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 32 AT PINE RIDGE TO 46 AT BROKEN BOW AND ONEILL. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTENDS FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY INTO THE TX GULF COAST WHILE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BECOME FLATTENED OUT ACROSS WASHINGTON. A 500MB DISTURBANCE LOCATED IN WRN MONTANA AND IDAHO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER RIDGE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO NRN WY AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. EARLY EVENING DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S MOST AREAS WILL INCREASE TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S TOWARD DAYBREAK. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST AROUND A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR SCT TSTMS ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF WYOMING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
A STRONG COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS OF TODAY. MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE WAVE ON THE FRONT BECOMES A RATHER SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. MUCH COOLER AIR ALSO MOVES INTO THE AREA AT THE SAME TIME SO WE WILL SEE FALLING TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON SKIES WILL CLEAR BUT IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL INTO MIDWEEK.
703 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015 LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO TRACK IN A NORTHEAST DIRECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS TODAY, WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS ILLINOIS FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY. AN INTENSIFYING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTHERN IL AHEAD OF THE LOW. 5 INCHES IN AREAS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO SEE THE HIGHER PRECIP TOTALS. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT A FEW STORMS CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW SE OF I-55 COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. STIFF NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND WILL DRIVE IN MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 607 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/ EARLY THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION FROM SOUTH ARKANSAS INTO NORTH LOUISIANA. FROM THIS LOW A COLD FRONT TRAILED SOUTHWEST ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
1055 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WEATHER OVER THE PENINSULA OF FLORIDA THIS MORNING.
LAWSON A STABLE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S WHILE NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW 80S. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA WHILE NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY INLAND. WHILE A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER KEEPS COOLER.
/ISSUED 607 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/ EARLY THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION FROM SOUTH ARKANSAS INTO NORTH LOUISIANA. FROM THIS LOW A COLD FRONT TRAILED SOUTHWST ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
A STABLE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S WHILE NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW 80S. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA WHILE NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR A SEVERE STORM RUNNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES ALONG THE LOWER TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. ALONG AND BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT.
WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA.
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD FIRM OVER EASTERN ALABAMA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST REGION. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. AS STRONG AS THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS. LN /ISSUED 306 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/ ATTM MOST OF THE CWA IS UNDER MOSTLY CLR SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. WHILE AN UPPER TROF WAS OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THE CDFNT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE TODAY AND SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER SERN MO BY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROF ALSO MOVES TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY. WITH THE CDFNT/UPPER TROF APPROACHING THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 352 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/ PRETTY UNSETTLED AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BROAD TROUGHING WOULD SUGGEST THE IMPETUS OF THE NORTH TEXAS COMPLEX WOULD MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. BOTH ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHARPENING THE TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY FOR MORE STORMINESS WITH LOWER LCL AND TRIGGER TEMPERATURE UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT.
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING AS UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. WHAT RAIN DOES OCCUR SHOULD EXIT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD MARK THE START OF A DRIER PERIOD FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS MODELS DEPICT UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL U.
LINGERING CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW-CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT FURTHER COOLING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. COOL AIR ADVANCING ALONG WITH THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. COOL AND QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR. THE RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER EASTWARD ON SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
Upper lead trough axis was over western Missouri while a secondary trough and associated energy was located across central Kansas north into Nebraska. The cold front has cleared most of the forecast area except for areas southeast of I-35 at 08Z. Some light rain will be possible through 12z or so with lift from the secondary upper trough. Forecast soundings suggest that the low level moisture and clouds will be slow to erode through the day and may even see clouds linger in the east well into the afternoon hours. Gusty winds behind the front will gradually decrease this afternoon as high pressure builds southeast and pressure gradient relaxes. Tonight with light winds and partial clearing, temperatures will fall into the mid 40s across north central Kansas and into the lower 50s in east central Kansas.
325 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE STATE AND DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS TOWARDS CENTRAL SD WHERE CHAMBERLAIN COULD HIT 90.
As mentioned yesterday AM, high pressure will shift east to the East Coast today. An area of low pressure out over the Plains this morning will drift east into nrn IL by Saturday. A "dirty" ridge of high pressure will continue to be anchored along the eastern seaboard through the remainder of the weekend.
-KT TRAILING DISTURBANCE ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE LESS CLOUD COVER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS ALONG THE CONTDVD. DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER THAN PAST COUPLE. SHADED BLENDED GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF VALUES.
308 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE STATE AND DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS REMAINS INTACT TONIGHT AND WE DO EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. WE DO EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
342 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY AND PROVIDE THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
150 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP INTO THE APPALACHIANS TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH TOMORROW. LATEST HRRR INDICATES FULL SUPPRESSION BY 03/04Z THIS EVENING WHICH FITS THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL AS UPDRAFTS HAVE FORMED DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND DIURNAL CIRCULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE PREVIOUSLY DEEP CLOSED LOW OFF THE NORCAL COAST HAS BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AS A DEEPER LOW OVER BRITCOL CONTINUES ITS SOUTHWARD TRANSLATION DOWN THE COAST. SAID PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH THE PACNW OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DISPLACING THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED AXIS EAST OF THE AREA TOMORROW.
THERE WILL STILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS HAS ALLOWED THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO DRIFT A BIT MORE EAST.
1259 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015 Early this morning, an area of showers and thunderstorms extending from NW Missouri back west into central Kansas and SE Nebraska where a cold front resides continues to push eastward. These storms should continue to progress slowly east across the area tonight out ahead of the cold front. There could even be a few left over showers across the eastern CWA Saturday morning before the cold front clears the area. Models stall the cold front south of the area on Saturday and precipitation should remain south of the area.
19z sfc map shows the cold front roughly along a Marysville to Manhattan to Hutchinson line. North winds should keep highs in the lower 80s on Saturday however with no strong dry air push this time around it looks like dewpoints will remain in the lower 60s behind the front.
AN U/L TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WHILE AN AN U/L RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BUILD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
645 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.
/ISSUED 435 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/ SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ENTRENCHED FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD TO THE WRN GULF COAST STATES. WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOTED FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NEBRASKA TO THE TX PANHANDLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS WHILE RIDGING IS IN PLACE FROM THE DESERT SW TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS/LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RISE BEGINNING TODAY AS AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF PASSING HIGH PRESSURE.
S UPPER HIGH TODAY AND WILL DO SO THROUGH MID EVENING. AS A COASTAL MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA DRIFTS WEST. THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER OUR AREA WILL WEAKEN AND ALLOW WEAK NORTH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST NEAR OR INTO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE KERN COUNTY AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIG A TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA DISPLACING THE RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REMAINS IN PLACE AND THE TROUGH TO OUR EAST RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY. RESULTING IN A FEW MORE CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE.
THE HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE THE GREATEST.
152 PM MST FRI AUG 28 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HOTTER LOWER DESERTS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 110.
243 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015 AFTERNOON SURFACE MAP SHOWING LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR OMAHA, WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA AND A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. MAIN ACTIVITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT AND TRACKING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. A GENERAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE BOUNDARIES IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE ILLINOIS/IOWA BORDER TOWARD 3-4 AM. LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WEST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND INTO THE CWA DURING THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT THIS COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH OUT OF THE PANHANDLES EARLY TONIGHT WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERCONTINENTAL REGION WITH A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL ALLOW FOR AN UPPER TROUGH TO TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
1141 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN TODAY AS PWATS DROP BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A DEEP TROUGH WILL COME ASHORE OVER THE PACNW SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL FORCE THE RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT TO THE NE.
117 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015 LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT BEHIND THE CLOSED LOW. LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT THANKS TO THE LOWER DEW POINTS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. SATURDAY MORNING THE LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS A 850 MB RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME AS THE RIDGE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
At 12z Friday an upper level trough/low was located over the eastern Pacific, and an upper level ridge axis was located over the western United States. Further east an upper level trough extended from western Iowa to southwest Kansas, and a weaker upper level disturbance was located across southwest Nebraska. A the surface at 12z Friday a Cold front stretched from southeast Nebraska to the panhandle of Texas. Water vapor imagery shows a departing synoptic trof with subsidence in its wake. A light northerly wind is expected today in the wake of a weak passing cold front. High pressure will ridge across the central plains with weak southerly flow developing on the backside of the departing high be Saturday evening.
THAT HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL BUT YET TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE AS DEPICTED BY HRRR STILL AM NOT SURE WILL OCCUR. STARTING IN EAST CENTRAL ND FROM MID AFTERNOON AND SPREADING EASTWARD ALONG AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROF AXIS INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MORE STABLE H5 RIDGE BUILDING IN ALOFT. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS. WITH A WARM H5 RIDGE ALOFT AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FRM THEMID 80S IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA LAKES COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN.
FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WE ARE SEEING SOME MVFR STRATUS MOVING IN.
208 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE STATE AND DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. RESULTING IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE RETURN OF WARMER.
405 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHERN US. THE HIGHEST POPS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE OVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA.
116 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL LAKES ON SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT ALLOWING A WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO OHIO. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
119 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
419 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015 LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED AN ELONGATED MEAN MID/UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. COMPRISING THE MEAN TROF ARE TWO DISTINCT FEATURES. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NC GULF IS FCST TO BEGIN LIFTING OUT TO THE NE TOMORROW. WHILE THE LOW/MID LEVEL E-W ORIENTED TROF AXIS TO OUR SOUTH ALSO LIFTS NORTH AND WEAKENS. THE INCREASING MSTR DEPTH COUPLED WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING OVER TEXAS WILL PROMPT THE RETURN OF AT LEAST LOW END RAIN CHANCES OVER THE GULF WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS. DISCREPANCIES APPEAR AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH THIS SECONDARY TROF DIGGING INTO TEXAS. 13 A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
253 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FLAT CU FIELD HAS FORMED AND THINK THE ATMOSPHERE IS STABLE ENOUGH TO PREVENT CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
415 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
256 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015 TODAY AN UPR RIDGE IS OVR UT AND WRN CO. ON SATURDAY THE UPR RIDGE MOVES OVR THE AREA. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH RIDGING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AND AN UPPER TROUGH SITS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
MOST VALLEYS HAVE DIPPED DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS. WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR TO ADVECT IN ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MOST OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST TODAY. OUR FORECAST IS A TAD BIT MUDDLED AS THE AREA LIES IN BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CORES. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE CORE TO OUR EAST TAPS INTO SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE.
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO SW KS WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS FIRST OVER NORTHEAST KS WITH THIS ACTIVITY TRYING TO WORK SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AIDED BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT STILL HAS TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA. HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MAKES IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA IS THE MAIN QUESTION AND FOR NOW HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/DESERT SW AS SOME UPPER ENERGY DIVES OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY INTO EASTERN OK.
BUT IT WILL LIKELY GET A BIT WORSE IN OUR AREA TONIGHT BEFORE HOPEFULLY IMPROVING LATER ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. FORECAST HIGHS ARE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA AND PARTS FURTHER SOUTH FOR ALL FIVE PERIODS.
305 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS WEEKEND BUT WITH A WARMING TREND.
With mostly clear conditions overnight along with light winds will trend towards undercutting the cooler guidance by a couple of degrees. On Saturday the upper ridge axis will cross into the central plains as a series of upper level disturbances move from the base of the eastern Pacific trough towards the northern Rockies.
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO BECOME WEAK NELY SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONS FROM NW ARIZONA INTO NE ARIZONA. 28/12Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICT SWLY FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST TUE- FRI IN RESPONSE TO A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SRN CONUS HIGH PLAINS. AND A GRADUALLY DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ADJACENT THE WEST COAST.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES MAINLY IN REGARDS TO THE LOCATION AND PROGRESSION A MID/UPPER TROUGH SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OR SOUTHEASTERN U.
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST ND. AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY YET BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO THIS EVENING. WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL U.
COMBO OF THE WARM FRONT. WHILE 850 JET PULLS OUT EARLY THE MOIST AXIS LINGERS ALONG WITH AN 850 TROUGH.
/ISSUED 1115 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. CURRENT TEMPERATURES REFLECT THIS AS TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AS WINDS TURN TO SOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL POKE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SITUATED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL MERGE TO FORM A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
SHWR ACTIVITY SHOULD STILL BE IMPACTING ERN SECTIONS OF WI SAT MORNING AS THE SHRTWV TROF SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE EAST. THE UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
419 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.
313 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015 PRETTY QUIET WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
150 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 AVIATION LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING SOME RAIN BY EVENING. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY BEFORE FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER MOVES IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON SATURDAY WITH SOME PLACED GUSTING TO OVER 40 MPH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND IN TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY.
139 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TO ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.
BUILDING AND PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS CTRD OVR W TX WHILE LOW PRESSURE CONTS OVR THE N GULF OF MEX. THE LOWER DEWPOINTS/DRIER AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. BY SAT NIGHT THE UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS W PLACING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY FROM THE SE AND BEGINS TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO S TX.
1127 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEB. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE ROCKIES. OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION SAT WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING SWRLY. WARMER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NE WY/WRN SD SAT.
117 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
1226 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015 PRIMARY CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. 08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A STRONG TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MN WITH A LARGE MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST KS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MN. EXPECT ONE MORE COOL DAY ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS CLOUDS DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST.
SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPEATURES WERE WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY STARTING EARLY IN THE DAY. AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MIDWEST PUSHING MOISTURE/FORCING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE HOT WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.