Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
530 PM MDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Latest upper air analysis shows a closed low centered over Montana. Extending southeast and south from it was a cold front with a dry line just east of the front. Tonight the cold front and dry line will be just east of the Tri- State Area in the early evening. As the dry line is retreating an upper level short wave trough will deepen over it. This deepening trough should cause storm development just east of Gove, Graham and Norton counties where the CINH will be lower. Have left a mention of tornadoes out of the HWO due to the low confidence to the storms becoming surface based even if they do form. Wednesday will be dry due to a dry environment in place behind the cold front from today.
After highs today in the low to mid 90s, temperatures will fall into the 70s area wide by daybreak Wednesday. An upper level ridge positioned over northern Mexico will dominate the weather across North and Central Texas for the next couple of days.
Skies will be mainly cloudy with lows in the lower to mid 70s.
Lows will be in the low to mid 70s. Weak ridging continues to prevail over the area this afternoon and expect these conditions to continue through tonight into Wednesday. Expect muggy overnight lows in the low/mid 70s. Little will change on Wednesday as weak upper ridging continues along with PWATS around 1.
Models remain a little over-saturated with regard to daily convection, but do realize the heat/humidity potential capped underneath a dome of high pressure that extends across the Tennessee river valley and ridges into the heart of the PAH FA. Radar mosaic shows rimfire heat of day convection just where heights fall off ridge, notwithstanding the isolated updrafts that have managed to break through. probably less than modeled but maybe slightly more than the previous days, given the ridge mutes somewhat with some height fall energy approaching from the north/west, courtesy of the primary upper trof making way into the Great Lakes.
Upper level analysis has ridging across the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS with strong closed low over the northern Rockies. At the surface, low pressure is located across southeast SD with inverted trof extending into eastern Montana.
Showers and thunderstorms have primarily developed this afternoon along a cold front slowly sinking from north to south, although additional scattered thunderstorms have developed south of the front as well. While high temperatures will be a couple degrees cooler than today, heat indices will still rise into the lower 90s.
An area of low pressure remains over eastern Montana through southern ND and then south into the central plains. Late afternoon and evening convection had a hard time making it north into central ND, which remained north of the warm front. The upper level low was situated over eastern MT this evening and is forecast to lift northeast across northwest ND into southeast Saskatchewan or southwest Manitoba by 12 UTC Wednesday. Gusty westerly winds expected in moderately tight pressure gradient on the south side of the low.
with low pressure in the plains, yielding a SE flow off the Gulf. Upper ridge will build over the area on Wednesday with a slightly drier weather pattern expected. Low to mid level ridge centered over the SE CONUS is progged to build WWD with time, while an upper level ridge over NRN MX expands and builds EWD. The forecast grids followed suit, with already low rain chances decreasing further from the previous forecast and high temperatures nudging a bit warmer. The ridge aloft is progged erode as a trof digs into the Central Gulf Coast late in the week and into the weekend, with models advertising a weak front limping in the area late MON into TUE. Decreasing rain chances are expected the rest of the week and through the weekend as high pressure aloft builds in from the west.
708 PM MDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Went ahead and cancelled the High Wind Warnings across Carbon county. Early afternoon GOES-16 water vapor loop showed a strong upper low centered over south central MT. With 700/850mb CAG-CPR gradients of 55-60m through 03Z, the High Wind Warning will remain in effect until 8 PM.
/Tonight through Wednesday/ The potential for strong to severe thunderstorms along with the continuation of above average temperatures are the highlights of the short term forecast. An upper level low centered over Montana will lift into the Dakotas through Wednesday. Ahead of the low, mid level dry air advection has continued across the Plains into the Midwest reinforcing the elevated mixed layer which will aid in suppressing convection this evening over Central Iowa. Convection is anticipated to continue to develop overnight into Wednesday supported by the low level jet.
The unsettled weather will continue into Wednesday as a more pronounced upper level trough advances eastward across the Plains. One front will stretch west to east across the lower Mississippi River Valley while another will be oriented from Oklahoma into central and southern Missouri. The highest instability and moisture content will be south of our area along the southern most front with more modest instability farther north. An upper level ridge will quickly build into the region in the wake of this system providing relatively mild weather late week into the weekend. KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Low pressure over eastern CO will move slowly east into KS during the taf period.
1248 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2018 Aviation High pressure will continue to bring fair weather through Tuesday evening.
331 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2018 High pressure will provide mild and dry weather through tonight.
406 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2018 High pressure builds in from the west today, then moves off the coast tonight and Wednesday.
1143 PM CST Mon Feb 26 2018 As high pressure moves east toward the Mid-Atlantic area and low pressure deepens across the High Plains, southerly flow will increase across the Central Plains tonight into Tue. As the column dries Tue night into early Wed we may see some lingering drizzle as the sfc layer is progged to remain saturated in the vicinity of a cold front meandering across the area. Temperatures may approach freezing near KRSL with some low probabilities for light freezing drizzle, elsewhere temperatures are expected to remain above freezing.
/issued 828 PM EST Mon Feb 26 2018/ Early evening water vapor satellite imagery and regional surface observations are showing that the cold front is nearing the northern extent of the forecast area over the Nature Coast. Overall, the forecast looks on track with slightly cooler temperatures (but still well above normal) tomorrow. Fog and low stratus will be possible overnight tonight ahead of a weak cold front moving southeast into the region. A weak cold front currently moving south into the waters will stall across the central Gulf tonight, resulting in somewhat variable winds.
247 AM MST Tue Feb 27 2018 Another mild and dry day is in store for the entire forecast area as we watch with patience a strengthening upper level low rolling south southeast down the west coast like a bowling ball. The good news is that temps are expected to stay on the warmer side of normal through these short-term frames. There is a very low probability of a spare since this Left Coast trough is dug so deep that the subtropical atmospheric river has been pushed well to the south.
1251 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2018 The cold front will push offshore tonight, but a few showers will remain possible this evening.
229 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2018 An overhead ridging pattern, combined with persistent warm advection, will make for a pleasant morning and afternoon as temps peak in the mid 60s across the area. Chances of precip will then increase once more Wednesday afternoon and evening, as the previously mentioned upper low advects across the region and additional moisture fields increase aloft.
310 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2018 High pressure builds in from the west today, then moves off the coast tonight and Wednesday.
As this high continues to move east overnight, frontal system will begin to move back north as a warm front. The warm front will move through the forecast area by 27/18Z. Hi-Res models indicate temps have nearly leveled off with lows only expected to be a few degrees cooler.
Even the high mtn ridges aren't terribly windy this evening. Overnight, lows will dip into the teens and lower 20s with slightly cooler temperatures over the snow field over Boulder and areas around Longmont. These winds will move off the Cheyenne Ridge helping to keep conditions dryer along the base. On Wednesday, the two systems merge into an open trough as it moves over the Rocky Mountain Region. A cold front associated with the trough will move across the northeastern plains Wednesday morning resulting in cloudy skies and cooler temperatures east of the mountains.
319 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2018 High pressure remains in control of the weather in the lower Ohio Valley. Another warm, beautiful day will be in store as high pressure marches toward the east coast.
323 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2018 The morning surface analysis shows an area of high pressure is parked just to the east across West Virginia this morning. The high shifting east will provide downslope flow across eastern Kentucky this afternoon and this will lead to some lower RH values in the far east. Otherwise, we may see some increasing high clouds in the far west late in the day today, but temperatures will still climb into the lower to middle 60s especially given the downslope flow. Did keep POPs fairly broad given the different placements of the low level jet, but there will be a relative lull in QPE in the afternoon.
Overnight mins will generally be warmer than the past few nights given modest surface winds, with warmest readings in the lee of the eastern mountains. On Tuesday, southwest flow continues as upper trough digs southward along the Pacific coast. SW winds to the south of the trough will become gusty once again, and will upgrade Fire Weather Watch to a warning for zones along the NM border. Along and north of the trough, winds should be weaker, and won't issue any highlight as speeds should stay just below 25 mph threshold. Across the Plains, expect a cold front to drop south over the Plains by mid day on Wednesday. Temperatures will rise into the 40s and 50s ahead of the cold front, before falling overnight.
314 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2018 Southwesterly upper level winds and surface lee troughing will continue through today ahead of the approaching trough to the west. Southerly surface winds over South Texas will bring moisture up from the Gulf around the back side of the high over the southeast as it moves off the east coast. The closed upper low over Southern California will continue to dig south today before it opens up as it moves across Arizona and New Mexico. As the upper trough moves across Wednesday night the cold front will push through with winds decreasing and shifting to the north.
338 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2018 The heat and humidity will be back in the area as a warm front lifts out of the gulf today. The main areas of rain will slide north of the area into northern Louisiana, Arkansas and Mississippi where the warm frontal boundary will become stationary.
Combination of nearby high pressure center, recent area wide rainfall, near calm winds and clear skies tonight has produced area of patchy dense fog across the region. Under a building ridge aloft, afternoon should be glorious with plenty of sunshine and high temperatures reaching about 10 degrees above normal for late February.
Slightly cooler and drier air will continue to filter into the region behind today's cold front. Lows will range from the lower 50s north to the upper 50s south. Behind the front that moves through today, high pressure will slide across the Ohio Valley and to the Carolina coast tomorrow. While temperatures will remain well above average, Tuesday will be slightly cooler than what we have seen the past few days (except with the rain today) with highs in the low to mid 70s, instead of some areas reaching the 80s.
1215 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2018 High pressure over the Ohio Valley will slowly drift eastward by mid week. A weak cold front will sag across the Great Lakes on Wednesday.
An increase in the low level jet and some moisture flux into the region could bring some light showers to the area overnight.
1132 PM EST Mon Feb 26 2018 High pressure tonight and Tuesday.
410 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2018 A ridge of high pressure right over the region early today will drift east and off the Mid Atlantic Coast later today and tonight.
1146 PM CST Mon Feb 26 2018 A weak cold front will move in from the northwest tonight with a cooler area of high pressure building in on Tuesday. This cold front will result in a period of clouds overnight but otherwise limited impacts. Ridging builds into the area for Tuesday night, and with dry air aloft, we should have good radiational cooling conditions for the overnight period.
259 AM MST Tue Feb 27 2018 Snowfall seems to have ended across Far Western Wyoming early this morning now that the Pacific trough has exited off to the east. A cloud deck between 4 and 5k ft will likely occasionally produce a broken cig today and tonight along with some flurries as the west flow continues off the Pacific through a flat ridge.
359 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2018 High pressure over the Ohio Valley will move off the mid Atlantic Coast by late Wednesday. A weak cold front will sag south across the lower Great Lakes on Wednesday.
This trend is expected to continue into Tuesday as flow aloft remains southwest to westerly and southerly at the surface in advance of a cold front dropping south from the northern plains. Saturated layer deepens somewhat during the day on Wednesday stretching into the lower mid levels but dendritic zone stays dry until Wednesday night when lower levels begin to dry out.
Satellite imagery is showing the real picture of what is occurring this evening as the storm system continues be stretched out across northwestern Utah tonight with the northern portion of the trough racing eastward across Montana and the southern portion closing off near the central to southern California coast. The surface dew points are quite low under the ever weakening deformation zone across the Great Salt Lake Desert this evening, so even though the radar is showing some weak echoes over northern Utah, snow is not reaching the ground except for possibly the highest elevations and even that is likely to be very light. Have adjusted temperatures up a few degrees to account for this milder evening with most valleys still in the low to mid 30s at 9pm.
200 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2018 High pressure will bring clear skies and light winds through Tuesday. Lows tonight will be in the low 30s. A cold front will bring a chance for light rain showers Tuesday night into Wednesday.
1049 PM MST Mon Feb 26 2018 06Z TAF CYCLE Winds are strengthening aloft as an upper level low pressure system takes shape over southern California. Overall the highest snowfall amounts will be three to four inches atop the Mogollon, Jemez, and Tusas Mountains.
958 PM MST Mon Feb 26 2018 The latest water vapor loop showed a upper trough digging south across the far western CONUS, with west to southwest flow aloft over the Intermountain West and Rockies. Upper ridge shifts east over the central and eastern CONUS as the western CONUS trough splits, with closed upper low drifting southeast over CA Tuesday and east into AZ Wednesday. Tuesday will 5-10 degrees cooler across the high plains behind a cold front, which shifts east late Tuesday, followed by another cold frontal passage early Wednesday morning.
302 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2018 High pressure will cross the area today and tonight before moving offshore Wednesday.
407 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2018 High pressure will bring mostly clear skies today along with south winds around 10 mph.
Winter Weather Advisory issued for the Sierra Low pressure moving across the area tonight will bring showers across the region through Tuesday, with high elevation snow mainly across the Kern county mountains.
A high pressure wedge will try to build in overnight. /Issued 241 PM EST Mon Feb 26 2018/ Disturbance and associated precip has had rapid progression in already exiting the eastern part of the CWA so have trended now to dry majority of fcst period as high pressure should quickly dominate the regime.
Some locations in the Upper Cumberland will get into the low to mid 30s, so cannot rule out some patchy frost in a few locations. However, its more likely to see patchy fog develop instead due to the low dewpoint depressions and very wet ground due to recent rainfall. It's not out of the realm of possibility for a few places to even touch the freezing mark in the Upper Cumberland tonight. This initial batch of rain will move out quickly by late Wednesday morning, but additional moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms are anticipated to develop from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening as a 100+ kt H5 jet interacts with a well-defined warm front becoming established near the TN/AL border.
216 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2018 High pressure will build across the region tonight and Tuesday with fair and mild weather for late February. High pressure is yielding a very quiet night. Hence tonight should be clear as high pressure builds across the middle Atlantic and northeast U. Maximums on Tuesday look to be well above normal into the low and mid 50s under mostly sunny skies. In the meantime, a potent northern stream wave is forecast to dig across the Upper Midwest, forming a modest cyclone over the Ohio Valley.
344 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2018 Surface map this morning shows an upper low digging into the central California coast. With the low just coming on shore, the h5 pattern has not yet amplified and the pattern across the Midwest is still relatively zonal. High pressure dominates the eastern half of the country. and the ridge axis has slipped to the east, leaving predominantly southerly winds on the back side of the ridge. Have bumped up temps into the low to mid 60s for most of Central IL. Clouds and rain in the overnight will limit the drop in temps, with the lows holding in the mid 40s. Should experience a brief break, but both ECMWF and GFS quick to develop some warm frontal/overrunning precip with the next deeper wave to move across the country.
1214 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2018 High pressure will build across the region through Tuesday. Weak low pressure will cross the region Tuesday night into Wednesday.
109 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2018 A cold front will move through the region tonight. High pressure will build from the north Tuesday.
310 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2018 At the surface, high pressure in control over the Ohio Valley and into the NE states. The high will shift east over the Carolinas by this afternoon with east flow gradually shifting to the southeast and moisture continuing to increase.
/issued 323 PM CST Mon Feb 26 2018/ Southwesterly flow aloft and lee troughing will dominate the rest of today into Wednesday ahead of a trough currently over northern CA. The GFS MOS continues to have the highest wind speeds with 32 knots being forecasted at LBB.
This is ahead of an upper level ridge centered over the Plains. This will also help area temperatures get into the low to mid 60s.
dry conditions will persist thru the day as region under NW flow with highs ranging from the low 50s north up to the lower and mid 60s across the far south. Backdoor cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will bring in some increased low clouds for eastern zones.
436 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2018 High pressure will continue building into the region today along with drier air and mostly clear skies. The high will begin moving east of the region tonight as the next frontal system crosses the lower MS River Valley.
Cooler temperatures will also accompany the storm, especially in it's wake Wednesday and Wednesday night. A return to dry and warmer weather will follow by the end of the week as the storm track retreats northward. Clear conditions will continue through around midnight before cloud slowly start to increase as cold front approaches from the west. Latest surface analysis showed this cold front was moving through the LA basin with shower activity post frontal. This same area will experience critical fire weather conditions, but due to recent rains the fire danger ratings remained in the low to moderate range. A return to dry and warmer weather will follow by the end of the week as the storm track retreats northward.
High pressure will continue to slowly move to the east with clear skies and VFR conditions expected overnight.
330 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2018 High pressure will build south of the area today. A small area of low pressure will track across the north tonight.
942 PM MST Mon Feb 26 2018 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over western Manitoba, with a cold front stretching southwest across western ND into southern MT. Upper level analysis shows a large scale trough over the western US, with southwest flow aloft from the Rockies into the Plains. The trough to the west will dig south into the southwest US and then track east across the southern Plains and southeast US mid to late week. Northern stream flow over our region will remain near zonal and mainly dry, with some ridging moving across our area later in the week.
320 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2018 High pressure will keep dry and mild weather in the area into Wednesday.
243 AM MST Tue Feb 27 2018 Upper level analysis has broad ridging across much of the area with a closed low over southern California. At the surface, weak cold front is draped across the southern part of South Dakota, with high pressure over eastern Montana. The trof and upper low to the west will track east across the southern Plains and southeast US mid to late week. Northern stream flow over our region will remain near zonal and mainly dry, with some ridging moving across our area later in the week. Surface cold front will continue to drop south through the area this morning as high pressure slowly shifts east across northern SD.
A relatively flat ridge aloft exists over the Gulf Coast with quasi-zonal flow aloft. Looking ahead, widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night into early Wednesday as the warm front lifts north across the CWA.
The corpse of the cold front that pushed through the area early yesterday has begun to lift northward once again and the warm, moist airmass that was displaced not more than 24 hours ago is forecast to once again overspread the region.
318 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 High pressure will maintain warm and dry weather through early Sunday. Winds will increase on Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front that will be accompanied by a narrow line of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm during the afternoon. The frontal passage will be followed by much cooler temperatures and gusty west winds through Sunday night.
318 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017 One more warm and humid day is on tap before a cold front ushers in a period of autumn weather that will prevail for a good part of the upcoming work week.
Meanwhile partly to mostly sunny skies over southeast IL to warm temperatures (currently in the lower 70s), into the mid 80s by mid afternoon. Then as the low continues by late evening, moving into southern WI, it will pull cold front east over southeast IA and MO. High pressure will be in control of weather pattern through the week. This convection close to a warm front just south of I-80 in northern IL and ties to a 1008 mb in se CO. Cold front passes through overnight with SSW winds switching WNW and increase to 15-20 kts with gusts of 25-30 kts by Sunday morning. MVFR ceilings also expected behind the cold front later tonight into Sunday morning as showers end between 11-13Z.
An upper-level longwave trough currently centered over the Pacific Northwest will move over the eastern U.
Sunday, winds will turn out of the north during the day ahead of an approaching cold front.
There could be some clearing this evening, but cloud cover is expected to increase early Sunday morning ahead of an approaching cold front.