Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
947 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 DEW POINTS INCREASE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT.
Cooler temperatures and windy conditions are expected.
HAVE KEPT BEST CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE COMBINATION OF A CLOUD LINE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LOWER KEYS AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIGRATING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS RESULTED IN A SOLID BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM IN AND AROUND KEY WEST TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF BIG COPPITT KEY. A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMED FURTHER EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER KEYS. A NEBULOUS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. A DEEP LAYERED WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL HOLD FIRM ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. AS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS TO THE ISLAND OF CUBA MIGRATES WESTWARD AND DECELERATES TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS ON TUESDAY. A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BE DRAPED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.
1221 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
FURTHER WEST IN THE HIGH PLAINS A WEAK WAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO WHILE ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY WAS MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL WILL MOVE OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A LEAD WAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. FOR TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT ACROSS KANSAS WITH MODELS FOCUSING BEST MOISTURE FLUX AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGHS PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 FOR THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS COOLER WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION, GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.
859 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. LUCKILY DEW POINTS ARE NOT AS HIGH AS THEY WERE LAST WEEK WHEN HEAT INDICES MAXED OUT IN THE LOW 110'S. AS THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT WARM TEMPERATURES RETROGRADES.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A SLIGHT WARM UP FOR MIDWEEK. THEN A DRY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK FOR A COOLING TREND. SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REMAINS IN BETWEEN A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WELL OFF THE COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THESE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE FORMATION OF THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS. *** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION *** RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.
1145 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT.
1245 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
/ISSUED 859 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/ ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. LUCKILY DEW POINTS ARE NOT AS HIGH AS THEY WERE LAST WEEK WHEN HEAT INDICES MAXED OUT IN THE LOW 110'S. AS THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT WARM TEMPERATURES RETROGRADES.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A LINGERING INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER EARLY THIS WEEK AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS EAST. AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AREA. THOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE FARTHER AWAY TOMORROW. AND THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE LOOKS TO LARGELY MOVE INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. LOWER DEWPOINTS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES STRONGLY IMPLY TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW THE LEVELS EXPERIENCED THE LAST FEW DAYS.
941 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
ALL THIS IN PART TO NW FLOW ALOFT BRINGING A CANADIAN AIR MASS INTO THE LOWER 48 WITH THE BRUNT OF CAA DROPPING DOWN THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PCPN PROGGED TO BREAK OUT THEN ALONG WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY AXIS FROM ABOUT WRN SD TO NRN MO. ON TUES MODELS PROG SECOND AREA OF PCPN DEVELOPMENT OVER KS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT.
IT WILL HELP OUR TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN TO THE AREA AS WE REMAIN IN A WEAKNESS BETWEEN TWO RIDGES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AGAIN FROM THE WEST. LOOKS LIKE THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IF RIDGING BUILDS IN STRONGER OR FASTER THAN EXPECTED.
832 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER TODAY. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
1058 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
/ISSUED 900 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/ SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TX THIS MONDAY EVENING EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE W THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK.
/ISSUED 147 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/ Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be common across southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain of west Texas through this evening, if not overnight as a plume of mid and upper level moisture continues to spread over the region around/under a somewhat weakened ua ridge. Morning showers and storms over the Permian basin have waned, but another round of convection has begun to develop over the higher terrain of west Texas under the said plume of moisture, and expect the same over SE NM in the next few hours. Expect this higher mid level theta e air to push southward Tuesday, so will continue the trend of higher PoPs over the southern half or so of the CWA then.
SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL OK AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS ERN KS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO LINGER ACROSS N/NE OK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE H500 RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE SWRN U. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S ONCE AGAIN AS CLOUD COVER PERSISTS.
ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER CENTRAL WY. THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT SALT LAKE. THETA-E ADVECTION WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN SD AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH. BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW ALONG AN AREA OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT SALT LAKE. THETA-E ADVECTION WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN SD AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH. BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW ALONG AN AREA OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS.
WENT WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT A LITTLE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE.
THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION TO SOME EXTENT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. /ISSUED 333 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/ THE NEAR TERM FOCUS IS ON THE WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN UTAH WITH THE ATTENDANT TROUGH AXIS ARCING SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN RIDGE AND HELP IGNITE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. THEREAFTER THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO PRESS EASTWARD WHICH WILL PUSH PRECIP CHANCES NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND ALLOW TEMPS TO TREND UPWARD.
HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY BUT JUST A TOUCH COOLER WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.
625 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 A PLEASANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FA THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE DAKOTAS TO IA MOVES SLOWLY OVER MN AND WI. WITH READINGS ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER. THERE IS WITH ALL SOLUTIONS INDICATING THE CURRENT UPPER LOW INFLUENCING OUR AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND THE PATTERN WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT ZONAL OVER NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS WITH UPPER LOWS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND QUEBEC.
936 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
623 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 255 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/ RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW ROTATING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON.
AND THIS -- ALONG WITH SCATTERED/BROKEN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN NW FLOW ALOFT -- SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN IN RECENT NIGHTS. WHERE A NARROW PLUME OF DRIER AIR IN REGION OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IMMEDIATELY EAST OF AN 850-MB ANTICYCLONE WILL ALLOW LOWS TO ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE MID 60S. IN SPITE OF THE HIGH CLOUD COVER.
1011 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE INFLUENCE WILL MAINTAIN COOLER THAN AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS TROUGH WAS THE FOCAL POINT FOR STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ACROSS AREAS OF THE SOUTH. WITH LOW AND TROUGH AXIS MEANDERING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
AT 2 PM MDT UPPER LOW WAS IN SWRN WY AND MOVING NNE. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN BY SUNSET AND SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVES AWAY. WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL COME THROUGH TUESDAY.
1132 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 STALLED SFC BOUNDARY NEAR THE NEB/KS BORDER THEN NW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE HAS STARTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES PRODUCING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. WHICH ARE COOLER DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUDS. CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER 60S. IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
SHORT TERM: (THROUGH THE EVENING) UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE A DEEP TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH AND WILL EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THIS EVENING.
Winds continue to be from a southerly direction tomorrow as a trough of low pressure continues across eastern Colorado.
1047 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING RIDGE AXIS MAINTAINING FROM SASKATCHEWAN. LARGE CLOSED OFF CYCLONE CONTINUED ACRS THE JAMES BAY REGION. WESTERN WAVE ENERGY COMPLEX TRYING TO UNDERCUT UPSTREAM OMEGA RIDGE. AREAS AWAY FROM THE THICKER CLOUD DEBRIS SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S AGAIN FOR HIGHS. AND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES RESULTS IN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW LOCALLY.
916 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
DID NOTE THAT THE GFS HAS NOT INITIALIZED THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH TOO WELL THIS AFTERNOON. THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE FURTHER SOUTH AND SHOW THE DISTURBANCE BECOMING A CLOSED LOW TONIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON TUESDAY. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND CLOSER TO 75 WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
630 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 229 PM CDT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS ANCHORED SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. KEEPING A COOLER NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED JUST TO OUR WEST. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE CONFINED TO WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE LOW. MOST LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S.
641 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING RIDGE AXIS MAINTAINING FROM SASKATCHEWAN. LARGE CLOSED OFF CYCLONE CONTINUED ACRS THE JAMES BAY REGION. WESTERN WAVE ENERGY COMPLEX TRYING TO UNDERCUT UPSTREAM OMEGA RIDGE. AREAS AWAY FROM THE THICKER CLOUD DEBRIS SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S AGAIN FOR HIGHS. AND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES RESULTS IN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW LOCALLY.
846 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015 BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS BREAKING APART AS IT MOVES OFF THE MOUNTAINS. STILL SOME SLIM CHANCES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN EDGES OF OUR AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL GENERALLY TO THE WEST OF THE CWA AT THIS HOUR WITH QG ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OVER OUR AREA. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. THE NORTHEAST TIER OF COUNTIES WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THE TROUGH AXIS PASS BY UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AS MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER COLORADO.
THE ANTICYCLONIC TURNING COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND MAX ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND CYCLONIC FLOW FROM ILLINOIS INTO THE WESTERN OH VALLEY IS RESULTING IN A ELONGATED CONFLUENT REGION FROM SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN MO. SHORT TERM: (THROUGH THE EVENING) UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE A DEEP TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH AND WILL EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THIS EVENING.
ALSO FREEZING LEVELS ARE A BIT HIGHER WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER H5 TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT BUILDING IN DEEP LAYER RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SAHARAN DUST LAYER.
736 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 AVIATION COOLER AIR HAS SETTLED BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY) CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OFF TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON, PLACING WEST CENTRAL TEXAS IN WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE AREA OF MID LEVEL SHOWERS WE HAVE SEEN AT TIMES STRETCHING FROM OKLAHOMA SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BIG COUNTRY AND INTO THE BIG BEND HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED, ALTHOUGH NEW ACTIVITY WAS DEVELOPING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS BIG BEND. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN AND BRING HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS.
WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EASTWARD AND WILL PROVIDE FOR ANOTHER DAY (TUESDAY) OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST.
628 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 STALLED SFC BOUNDARY NEAR THE NEB/KS BORDER THEN NW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE HAS STARTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES PRODUCING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. WHICH ARE COOLER DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUDS. CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER 60S. IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
AND THIS -- ALONG WITH SCATTERED/BROKEN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN NW FLOW ALOFT -- SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN IN RECENT NIGHTS. WHERE A NARROW PLUME OF DRIER AIR IN REGION OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IMMEDIATELY EAST OF AN 850-MB ANTICYCLONE WILL ALLOW LOWS TO ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE MID 60S. IN SPITE OF THE HIGH CLOUD COVER. 09 /ISSUED 255 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/ RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW ROTATING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON.
751 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY.
649 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL INDIANA TO NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH INTO THE SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS THE PRECIP WILL DEVELOP REMAINS IN QUESTION. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A SMALL UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN UTAH. TRYING TO PUNCH THROUGH THE RIDGE THAT IS OTHERWISE PREVAILING ALONG THE ROCKIES. MOST OF THE MODELS MANAGE TO SLIP A PIECE OF THIS ENERGY THROUGH THE RIDGE AND INTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
1026 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT.
LUCKILY DEW POINTS ARE NOT AS HIGH AS THEY WERE LAST WEEK WHEN HEAT INDICES MAXED OUT IN THE LOW 110'S. AS THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT WARM TEMPERATURES RETROGRADES.
1104 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 A PLEASANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FA THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE DAKOTAS TO IA MOVES SLOWLY OVER MN AND WI. WITH READINGS ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER. THERE IS WITH ALL SOLUTIONS INDICATING THE CURRENT UPPER LOW INFLUENCING OUR AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND THE PATTERN WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT ZONAL OVER NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS WITH UPPER LOWS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND QUEBEC.
GFS SUGGESTING AN ENHANCEMENT OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE ON POPS AND WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM TIME PERIOD IS ON TUESDAY. WHILE THE GFS/CANADIAN/LATEST ECMWF DEEPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE WFO SGF FORECAST AREA.
414 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2015 COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST.
723 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 DEW POINTS INCREASE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT.
AT THIS TIME CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL INDIANA OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS OVER NW INDIANA. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM LAKE HURON TO NORTHWEST INDIANA WILL MAKE SLOW SOUTHEAST PROGRESS TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE EXITING NORTHERN UTAH THIS EVENING WILL BRING AN END TO MUCH OF THE REMAINING PRECIPITATION LATER TONIGHT.
1044 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
/ISSUED 645 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/ QUESTION THIS TAF CYCLE WILL BE HOW FAST THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS AND WHEN TO START MVFR MORNING CEILINGS. WITH THE LOWER CONFIDENCE AND NOT KNOWING HOW WIDESPREAD.
722 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THIS AS A NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES IN THIS REGION BETWEEN AMPLIFYING WEST CONUS RIDGE. AND PERSISTENT EAST CONUS TROF. A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF.
1022 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 DRIVEN BY DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THRU EARLY THIS MORNING. CAPE VALUES STARTED OUT AROUND 500J/KG AT 12Z BUT WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY WITH COOLER DRIER AIR MOVING IN. WE ARE JUST GETTING INTO THE NOMOGRAM WITH THE DELTA TS AT THE MOST (THIS IS ON THE GFS) 15C WHICH THE LOWER BOUND, FOR SOMETHING UNDER AN UPPER LOW SCENARIO.
639 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 Fairly active pattern continues for the lower Missouri River Valley through the middle and later part of this week. For the rest of today a fairly potent outflow boundary has moved across portions of the KC Metro area, with all areas north and east of KC in the lower to middle 80s, and areas west and south of KC in the lower 90s. This low level trough will be rather classic in nature, with a advance of moisture northward and back surface flow ahead of the trough. Behind the low level cyclone, a closed off mid level wave then moves into the area by Tuesday night, which will offer abundant mid level support for ascent.
CAPE VALUES STARTED OUT AROUND 500J/KG AT 12Z BUT WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY WITH COOLER DRIER AIR MOVING IN. WE ARE JUST GETTING INTO THE NOMOGRAM WITH THE DELTA TS AT THE MOST (THIS IS ON THE GFS) 15C WHICH THE LOWER BOUND, FOR SOMETHING UNDER AN UPPER LOW SCENARIO.
622 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL IN CONTROL OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA. BY TUESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF HUDSON BAY.
628 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT. A SLIGHTLY WARMER TUESDAY IS EXPECTED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. A MID LEVEL RIDGE/700-500MB.
900 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TX THIS MONDAY EVENING EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE W THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK.
705 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 69 95 73 93 / 10 10 10 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 67 92 70 90 / 10 20 10 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 67 91 68 89 / 10 20 10 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 65 89 65 88 / 20 30 20 30.
ASIDE FROM A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN FL INTO FAR SE GA AND SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IN THE FAR NE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST HAS PROVEN TO BRING PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG IN PORTIONS OF THE EAST AND SOUTH.
938 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN LOWER MI INTO NRN INDIANA MOVING EAST AND IS FORECAST TO BE FROM NEAR ERIE PA TO NRN KY BY 00Z THIS EVENING. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
1048 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
923 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 OVERALL FCST IS FAIRLY ON TRACK BUT ADJUSTED LOWS UP SLIGHTLY DUE TO DEWPOINT TRENDS/TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THIS MORNING. REST OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD SHOULD BE QUIET WITH A FEW HIGH PASSING CLOUDS DUE TO DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR W.
1018 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
LESS WIND ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRAWING CLOSER RESULTING IN A MORE LAX GRADIENT. SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT LIKELY TO RESULT IN AT LEAST MORE SCT CU DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE BKN CONDITIONS.
1200 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 Fairly active pattern continues for the lower Missouri River Valley through the middle and later part of this week. For the rest of today a fairly potent outflow boundary has moved across portions of the KC Metro area, with all areas north and east of KC in the lower to middle 80s, and areas west and south of KC in the lower 90s. This low level trough will be rather classic in nature, with a advance of moisture northward and back surface flow ahead of the trough. Behind the low level cyclone, a closed off mid level wave then moves into the area by Tuesday night, which will offer abundant mid level support for ascent.
LATEST NAM DOES NOT SUPPORT MUCH CHANCE OF ANYTHING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH DOES NOT BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT CONSIDERABLY LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK.
(MODIFIED PREV DISC) LOW PRESSURE TOWARD THE GEORGIA COAST TUE MORNING WILL LIFT FARTHER NORTHWARD WHILE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS NWD TO NEAR LAKE OKEE BY WED. WL HOLD ONTO THE OUTER WATER CAUTION STMT OVERNIGHT FOR THE NORTH SEGMENTS DUE TO GRADIENT NR COASTAL LOW PRESSURE NR GA CST.
OFFERING MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LESS HUMIDITY. MID LEVEL TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO PIVOT NE INTO CANADA WITH WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. READINGS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH. COOL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH LOWS FROM THE LOWER 50S NE TO THE MID/UPPER 50S SW.
1236 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO LIFTING NORTHEAST. A TRAILING TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS NORTHEAST TODAY. TAKING A LOOK UPSTREAM TO THE NORTHWEST A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK REMAINED AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE TROUGH. A WEAK RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED.
Thermal belts will limit RH recovery on the terrain tonight while an upper level weather system and vigorous cold front will pass through on Friday increasing winds further. A few thunderstorms are also possible along the cold front in Northwest Montana.