Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
130 PM PDT Thu May 18 2017 An Eastern Pacific high pressure will begin to build in today through this weekend.
1022 AM PDT Thu May 18 2017 An Eastern Pacific high pressure will begin to build in today through this weekend.
640 PM EDT Thu May 18 2017 High pressure anchored offshore will slowly weaken its grip on central NC Friday.
A more robust closed low is located across the Rockies and has lead to a high risk being issued by SPC for portions of the Southern Plains. Therefore, the highest PoPs this afternoon continue to be along the Plateau. Timing of the highest PoPs remains a challenge. In addition, lowered high temperatures by 2-3 degrees to account for the higher PoPs and cloud cover.
256 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017 The low pressure system that moved through yesterday and last night, is still departing to the east with widespread low clouds in cyclonic circulation on the back side. The clouds have been eroding across northern MN as high pressure across south central Canada pushes in from the north. The northerly flow is also bringing some pretty chilly air down from Canada as 850H temps are now flirting with the freezing mark. We will have to watch the wind though because with the high well to our north, we may keep a slight breeze in our area tonight, whereas farther north confidence is higher that temperatures will dip. Early afternoon water vapor imagery together Rap13 heights and winds showed a powerful cyclone approaching the TX/OK panhandles.
Mid/upper level high pressure offshore will place a dry northwest flow aloft over the interior Pacific Northwest today thus providing a great day to get outdoors. High temperatures today will be in the lower 60s to lower 70s, except in the lower 50s to lower 60s in the mountains, except in the upper 30s to lower 50s in the Wallowa Mountains.
Synoptic Setup: A narrow trough currently extends from Utah through Wyoming and into the Dakotas. On the backside a weak ridge is developing from northern California through Idaho and western Montana and southern Alberta. A narrow weak trough has also developed over the North American coast. Today: High pressure at the surface and exiting trough aloft has left a variably cloudy skies and dry conditions through the afternoon. Tonight through Friday: Weak ridge over alberta will nose through the area over these periods keeping conditions dry. Low tonight may be able to break freezing along the valley bottoms and other low lying areas.
1240 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017 It was a warm and humid early morning across the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas, with temperatures from the mid 60s to low 70s and dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. There will be enough instability, low level jet energy and high PW values for convection to persist across the area overnight however and with the high moisture content, heavy rain will be a good bet.
1154 AM MDT Thu May 18 2017 Current surface analysis shows main area of low pressure across southeast CO, with inverted trough stretching back northwestward to a secondary low pressure area over central WY. Fairly strong high pressure in place across south central Canada. Most of the forecast area is dry for the time being, with some showers over mainly Campbell County WY right now as some moisture wraps northwestward around the low over UT. Temps are mostly in the low to mid 40s, with some 30s across the Black Hills.
Sfc lee troughing across the Panhandles Region late this aftn has resulted in a slightly tightened pressure gradient across east TX, leading to sustained south-southeast wind speeds of 10-15 mph /with higher gusts/, just shy of Lake Wind Advisory wind speed criteria. A potent upper level low pressure system noted near the Four-Corners Region has promoted the sharpening of southwest flow aloft across the South Plains and across the Four-State Region.
SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night): High pressure at the surface and at the 500 mb level will continue to be the dominant weather features over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the short term forecast period.
Atlantic high pressure centered offshore NC/SC will maintain warm and muggy southeast flow across the region, with winds becoming breezy during the afternoon.
High pressure continues to dominate the weather and will keep an easterly component wind across the area and mostly dry conditions, except for a stray shower over southwest Florida late this afternoon. 11 inches, mostly in the lower levels below 6000 feet. A broad area of high pressure located near Bermuda ridges west across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico.
A dryline is sharpening west/southwest of the forecast area, with a warm front sharpening central into eastern KS. In addition, given the strong meridional flow and strong forcing, storm mergers and mixed mode storm type is likely, also lessening the higher-end severe weather risk. Severe weather is going to occur, but there remains some questions on magnitude and extent of the higher-end severe potential.
/issued 413 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017/ An upper ridge is currently draped SW to NE across the central Gulf of Mexico into the western Atlantic. At the same time a, a weak upper low is moving northeast across the upper Mississippi Valley. Surface dewpoints have risen considerably, into the low to mid 70s. The focus for convection will shift west as the upper trough to the north ejects and the next behind it moves across the Rockies. Models show storm coverage increasing substantially over the weekend as the upper trough coming out of the Rockies moves gradually across the central and high plains.
Otherwise, expect a northwest wind developing behind a cold front that will push through the forecast area today. Lows tonight will be much cooler, settling in the 40s to low 50s.
132 PM EDT Thu May 18 2017 Unseasonably warm conditions will continue today in southerly flow ahead of a cold front.
255 PM EDT Thu May 18 2017 Currently - A large north Atlantic high extends a ridge into the southeastern United States and the Gulf of Mexico. Deep layered ridging is in place, with the long wave trough aligned over the western United States and a ridge to the east. Forecast - Surface winds will remain up in the breezy range for a couple more days as the high to our northeast remains nearly stationary. The continued excellent flux and ample low level moisture along with weak to no inhibition will keep rain chances in the low to mid chance range through this period. A broad ridge across the southeastern United States is responsible for fresh easterly breezes across Florida Keys waters.
A cold upper low centered over the region will slowly move east into Colorado tonight.
Broad upper troughing continues out west with an upper low spinning over the four corners region and associated troughing extending south over northern Mexico. Over the east coast, upper level ridging extends from the Florida peninsula, northeastward along the eastern seaboard to Nova Scotia. On the surface, broad Atlantic high pressure located near Bermuda continues to ridge west over the southeast U. This flow will allow for the east coast sea breeze cloudiness, as well as a stray shower and thunderstorm to move west through the afternoon/evening hours, with the highest chances occurring south of Sarasota.
1136 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017 High pressure will remain over the region today. A weak cold front will move into the north Thursday and stall.
Adjusted POPs a bit to follow the Lows track tonight.
1145 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 For tonight, a clear sky and light wind is expected over the area with high pressure in place. The high pressure will slide off to the east on Thursday with the pressure gradient increasing behind the departing high and in advance of low pressure developing in the high plains. An upper level ridge will begin to build into the area as well, so there should be a warming trend beginning on Thursday with most areas seeing highs in the mid to upper 80s.
A pressure ridge will be just off the Southeast Coast through Thursday. Ridging is forecast to extend through the forecast area over the weekend with Jose well off the coast. Overnight lows should range from the lower 60s western Midlands to mid and upper 60s central and eastern Midlands.
Current thinking is the best chances for initiation or activity to move off the higher terrain will occur late this afternoon-early evening. Upper level flow overhead becomes southwest late tomorrow as an upper level trough digs over the Pacific Northwest and Northern Intermountain West while weak ridging moves east into the Middle Mississippi Valley and the Upper Great Lakes.
Smoke looks like it will hang around the northern CWA through at least Thursday morning before hopefully mixing out as low pressure heads east across the region. An upper ridge over the central CONUS has led to continued above normal temperatures over much of the region today under a sunny sky. At KMBG, temperatures have struggled to rise into the lower 80s and visibilities have been steady in the 1. The light winds that are over the area are being caused by a broad area of low pressure in the lee of the Rockies in WY/CO and the dissipating cold front stretches from northeast to southwest across SD and to the main low.
This afternoon a mid-level ridge stretched from the southwestern U. , with water vapor imagery showing increasing cloud cover over the Pacific Northwest from an advancing mid-level trough. Models show this trough deepening across the western U. This advancing low pressure will cause an increasing pressure gradient overnight and through the day on Thursday, with short-range guidance showing winds beginning to increase by sunrise. By Thursday night, a positively tilted mid-level trough digs into the Pacific Northwest while a closed low (the remnants of Irma) located over the northeast CONUS progress eastward.
Light rain may linger in the east thru the evening hours, or until the weak wave of Low pressure at the surface can depart and drag a little of the drier relative air aloft into the lower Ohio river valley/points eastward.
/Issued 322 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017/ Low level moisture will slowly return to North and Central Texas beginning tonight, keeping temperatures a bit warmer than the past several nights. However, the northern zones will be the last to see the moisture increase and therefore will have the coolest temperatures with lows from the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
1145 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Isolated storms may form near the lee trough over the central High Plains this evening, but should stay northwest of central Kansas.
Readings in the mid and upper 40s most areas, cooler in low lying areas, and perhaps milder in the SE CWA under Irma's clouds. Thursday, Irma loses it's definition at the sfc as it strolls through the Ohio river valley, taking the high clouds along for the ride. Meanwhile, low pressure develops across the nrn plains and shoves the cold front north as a warm front. More spectacular weather is on tap to end the work week on into the first half of the weekend as northern Michigan is sandwiched between remnant tropical moisture from Irma departing to the east and a digging trough across the Intermountain west.
Winds are expected to be light and with the higher dewpoints in place, could result in patchy fog late tonight. A mid and upper level trough axis has pushed SE across the region today with little to no noticeable effects on area weather. Mid level ridging to the west of the trough is then prog to strengthen/build in across the area on Thursday. Min temps tonight should be notably warmer than previous nights across inland areas.
935 PM PDT Wed Sep 13 2017 The first cold front of the Fall season will bring gusty winds Thursday along with another chance for showers, or even a few storms north of Highway 50.
743 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017 An upper level trough tracks across the Mid-Atlantic late tonight into Thursday.
Clouds are expected to clear out Thursday as an upper low departs to the east. High pressure will then build in for the end of the week, resulting in plenty of sunshine and warmer than normal temperatures.
Afternoon GOES-16 water vapor imagery shows the center of the elongated upper low (formerly Irma) rapidly lifting into southern Indiana as of 19Z. The drizzle/rain will gradually lift north along with the upper low, but the chance for measurable rain will not end immediately. The clouds may be lifting by tomorrow morning, but the short-range models are not totally sold on an end to the chance of rain, since shallow low-level moisture will linger well behind the primary trough axis. Likewise, the low-level moisture will keep at least partly-mostly cloudy conditions in the sky cover until late Thursday afternoon. The weekend will almost feel hot relative to the cooler temps the TN Valley has been experiencing recently.
High temperatures tomorrow will be in the low to mid 80s.
However, storm coverage will be hampered over most inland locations by the building upper ridge. 3" range and models weakening the upper ridge over the region.
High pressure will build into our region during the weekend. Clouds are beginning to move across the mountains from the west as of 8 PM, and these will spread across the area during the overnight as low pressure (formerly known as Irma) drift towards the area. Thursday the low will become an open wave over PA bringing chances of rain to the entire area; the farther north in the forecast area the better the chances will be. Lows in the lower to mid 60s east of the mountains.
A low pressure system will move into the region tonight through Thursday bringing an increased chance for rain showers and thunderstorms along with breezy and cooler weather on Thursday. This is all due to a low pressure system moving inland from the coast of California across southern Nevada, Northern Arizona, and Southern Utah. Windy conditions will exist tomorrow due to a strong gradient associated with the transiting trough.
/issued 338 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017/ Relatively warm/hot and dry conditions will continue for the rest of this week across Oklahoma and north Texas, ahead of a large and slowly-moving low pressure system.
Surface dewpoints were in the lower 60s over East Central Wisconsin. Light winds and clear skies under a diminishing ridge of high pressure may again produce fog across the area, especially over eastern Wisconsin within the ridge.
A strong mid level ridge of high pressure will move slightly eastward today, strengthen slightly and then stop over and just west of the forecast area. The combination of excessive high pressure and sinking, warming mid level air moving downslope from the northwest will result in oppressive heat. The upper pattern will continue to shift, as a long-wave trough aloft becomes more dominate west of the Rockies. Meanwhile, an 850 mb thermal, across far west Texas, will not expand into West Central Texas as much, as the flow at 850 becomes more southeast and brings cooler Gulf air.
This will increase the warm advection across Iowa bringing even warmer temperatures to central Iowa for tonight and Thursday. Thursday a south wind will increase bringing in even warmer temps and more moisture by late in the afternoon.
However, it's not looking like we'll match that anytime soon as we transition to a more typical fall weather pattern over the coming days with cooler and more unsettled weather. The rest of the area has remained generally dry as weak high pressure remains overhead. This ridge will begin to flatten this evening as southwesterly flow increases over the Great Basin as the upper level low centered off the coast of California moves further inland. Nocturnal showers will pick up across the higher terrain early Thursday as the low approaches. Thursday will be an active day, especially in the late afternoon and evening hours, as the low (eventually making the transition to an open wave) continues to lift northeast across Utah and western Colorado. Showers will continue Thursday night as the trough progresses into Wyoming with coverage decreasing from south to north.
In the meantime, low level moisture has been advecting into southeast Michigan as seen by dew points rising to the low 60s south and upper 50s north along with bands of low clouds.
Johns River Basin as Moderate to isolated Major pockets of flooding continued with the high tide cycle this afternoon and evening with 1-3 ft values above normal continue into Thursday from Jacksonville southward to Palatka.
As the upper trough deepens over the west coast our region comes under increasing mid level sw flow through the short term. Temperatures should follow with minimums from the around 50 over the far nw to the lower 60s over the south. With more cloud cover and boundary sagging south temperatures will be cooler over all but the far s-se where low 80s possible. By Thursday night, the weather pattern changes and becomes more unsettled as southwest flow aloft dominates, and an upper level trof digs in the intermountain west.
High pressure will return for the weekend. Highs Thursday in the low to mid 70s.
617 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Isolated storms may form near the lee trough over the central High Plains this evening, but should stay northwest of central Kansas.
An upper level trough will push south of the area tonight, bringing drier air into the area.
A weak band of rain showers developed across northern Illinois during the morning as a result of a few vort maxes rotating around the low, but quickly died off as it encountered dry air in place across the region. This dry air was from high pressure in place from the Mid Atlantic northwest towards the Great Lakes, and was fairly stagnate in nature. Temperatures across the region varied from the lower 70s over northwest Illinois, to lower 80s over east central Iowa. Guidance is trying to keep lows in the lower to middle 50s, but do believe that some areas will see upper 40s towards Jo Daviess and Stephenson counties. Upper level heights will also begin to increase as ridging from the central Great Plains builds into the Mississippi River Valley, setting the stage for a prolonged period of warm weather.
A high pressure system will gradually develop over the eastern United States as the remnants of Hurricane Irma dissipate.
Upper level trough will continue to move across the region overnight into Thursday. The trough axis will be over the forecast area Thursday afternoon and may generate scattered showers over northeast Oregon. Cooler temperatures with highs in the 60s and 70s.
514 PM MDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Upper level analysis shows upstream trof over western Canada, an upper low off the southern California coast, and weak ridging over the northern high plains. Water vapor imagery shows ample high and mid level moisture streaming into the Pacific Northwest and Upper Rockies associated with and ahead of the approaching upper level trof. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary extends from northern Minnesota through northern South Dakota into southeastern Montana, with a more pronounced cold front extending from southeastern Saskatchewan through central and southwestern Montana. Beginning tonight and continuing into the weekend, moist and colder air will move into the region as the upper trof approaches and swings through the northern plains.
/Issued 244 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017/ Low dewpoints along with light winds under weak surface ridging will ensure at least one more cool night.
Maliawco Previous Discussion: Cold front and scattered rain showers have finally arrived in NE Montana. The colder air mass and low pressure system from the Canadian Rockies will continue to push this change in the weather pattern through our region through the rest of this week.
Disturbance aloft combining with Canadian cold front working southward into the area this evening to produce an area of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Models have remained consistent in bringing a significant pattern change to the area as a low pressure system moves into the region ushering in much cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation beginning Thursday. Showers will increase across the area Thursday as the low pressure system moves into the region and north to northeast upslope flow develops.
Models are in good agreement with the pressure gradient tightening ahead of this low, bringing increasing southerly winds to the area for Thursday. 12Z Models showing a weak mid-level trough ejecting northeast out of the Plains Thursday night along with some weak 850-700mb moisture transport.
/issued 233 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017/ An upper trough is over and just east of the Mississippi River with another upper low moving over California. West Texas and southeast New Mexico are under an upper ridge with northerly flow aloft. The upper low over the West Coast moves onshore on Thursday and becomes connected with a broader upper trough over the Pacific Northwest. There is again a chance of storms Thursday afternoon and early evening along the higher terrain.
621 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 An upper ridge over the central CONUS has led to continued above normal temperatures over much of the region today under a sunny sky. At KMBG, temperatures have struggled to rise into the lower 80s and visibilities have been steady in the 1. The light winds that are over the area are being caused by a broad area of low pressure in the lee of the Rockies in WY/CO and the dissipating cold front stretches from northeast to southwest across SD and to the main low.
805 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017 An upper level trough tracks across the Mid-Atlantic late tonight into Thursday.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 79 60 83 / 40 20 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 75 60 82 / 50 30 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 58 74 59 81 / 50 40 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 72 58 77 / 50 50 20 20.
Otherwise, a quiet night with lows in the low to mid 70s. Aloft southwest flow increases as a mid level wave moves eastward from the Ohio Valley and a secondary trough digs off the TX coast.
Overnight temperatures will only drop to the low-to-mid 80s.
618 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 The upper pattern across the North America will transition from generally zonal flow to deeper trough building over the Southwestern US by the end of the week. This will allow for an upper ridge to deepen across the eastern two-thirds of the country. The trough developing over the west and stronger flow around that trough will help produce a strong lee side trough at the surface.
Above normal temperatures continue with an upper level ridge over the Rockies and 850mb temperatures soaring above 25 degrees Celsius. Winds will continue to be from a southerly direction due to a trough of low pressure located across eastern Colorado. Lows tonight look to dip into the low to mid 60s with highs tomorrow in the low to mid 90s.
Temps and dew points this afternoon have risen into the low 80s and low to mid 60s, respectively. The extended periods continue to feature a broad ridge across the eastern CONUS, only making some minor fluctuations over the next several days. Thur will feature a weak series of low pressure systems traversing the Missouri Valley, and eventually lifting north across the Upper Peninsula. But confidence remains low given the possible lingering ridge aloft and trough developing across the western CONUS. VFR conditions and winds mostly under 10 knots will continue under surface ridging, although shallow fog should develop at KSAW late tonight into Thursday morning.
As for temperatures, with lingering clouds and winds becoming light and southerly late, lows will be a bit warmer, in the mid to upper 50s. A cutoff low entering the California coast along with a trough moving through the pacific northwest this morning, will help drive the formation of a long wave trough over the western two thirds of the country.