Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper ridge building in Monday will suppress activity however additional showers and thunderstorms are expected during the middle of the week as increasing moisture and a frontal boundary move into the area. Weak surface ridging across the region. Persistence with overnight minimum temperatures in the low to mid 70s with mainly high thin clouds after midnight advecting in from the coast. High pressure aloft will prevail across The Midlands and CSRA early this week. Highs will be in the mid 90s with lows in the lower to mid 70s. An upper level low pressure system over Quebec will carve out a broad upper trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast U.
248 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Showers and thunderstorms will occur across central Illinois tonight, spreading into southern Illinois early Monday, as a cold front moves across the region. Once this front passes through the area later Monday, cooler and less humid conditions will overspread the region, persisting into mid week. Some more development is taking place from northeast Iowa into Wisconsin, near the actual cold front. Have focused the highest PoP's over the northern CWA this evening, then lowered them down to about 40-50% near/north of I-72 the remainder of the night. Upper ridge amplifies west of the Rockies this week, as a large upper low currently in northern Manitoba slowly drifts eastward through the rest of the work week.
237 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Upper level high pressure has moved southwestward from its previous position over eastern Kansas yesterday afternoon and is now centered over the Texas Panhandle, in general keeping the cumulus across the forecast area in check. The position of the upper high should keep that precip to the west and north of the forecast area tonight. The center of the upper high will continue to move to the west-southwest tonight as a sharp upper trough moves across the central Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. This in turn will help a cold front push south into the Panhandle tonight and into to the northern parts of the forecast area Monday while upper flow becomes more northwesterly on the downstream side of the ridge.
A cold front will approach NE OK late in the TAF period, with showers and storms expected within the vicinity of the boundary.
1117 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Water vapor shows upper trof over the northern Rockies/Plains with upper low over eastern SASK. At the surface, cold front has moved through all but far south central SD. Best focus for additional convection today will be across far south central SD invof the cold front, and across northeast WY where return flow will result in MLCAPE to around 500J/kg. Dry and slightly warmer conditions expected Monday as upper ridge begins to amplify over the central/northern Rockies.
Tonight the axis of high pressure ridging will gradually shift eastward. The subsequent warming aloft will somewhat inhibit radiational cooling affects at the surface and result in morning low temperatures being several (3 to 7) degrees warmer region wide than the past two mornings. With the ridge axis now east over central Montana on Monday, the Northern Rockies will fall under an area primed for afternoon mixing and thus we likely will achieve peak heating potential.
1018 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020 High pressure will maintain mainly sunny skies across the region today. Significantly cooler temperatures are expected with highs in the mid 70s north to lower 80s south. Cooler and less humid conditions are expected today and Monday. Early this morning, a closed mid-level low was moving into central Manitoba with a cold front at the surface pushing through the eastern Dakotas. With post-frontal high pressure settling in, cooler temperatures and mostly dry conditions are expected today. Monday should be a near repeat under the persistent northwest flow as the synoptic pattern becomes highlighted by a large closed low over the Hudson Bay. Highs should push into the mid 80s in the southwest as ridging and low level warm air advection begins to develop.
High pressure is building over the area allowing for clear skies and warmer temperatures for today. A low pressure system off the California coastline will slowly push into central California over the next 24 hours which helps usher in monsoonal moisture.
In the wake of the cold front that moved through the region last night and early this morning, high pressure continues to build into the region and becomes the dominate feature through the short term forecast. A weak, nearly stationary warm front may set-up from southwestern into central South Dakota Monday night. No major impacts should result from this other than keeping temperatures a couple degrees warmer Monday night for central South Dakota.
Overnight low temperatures will range from the middle 60s for the Plateau to the lower 70s for the Nashville area and along the river.
High pressure north of the region shifts southward Monday and remains in place through the week with fairly light winds enhancing along the coast each afternoon with the sea breeze.
902 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020 The area will remain between high pressure to the east and low pressure inland through the week. Lows will range from the lower 70s inland to around 80 at the beaches.
645 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Morning stratus is breaking up quickly this afternoon as the cold front continues to push southeast away from the area. Dew points will drop from the low to mid 70s into the 50s this evening, which is where they will stay until further notice. Weak ridging is in place over the Rockies and High Plains while a southwesterly jet is flowing onshore to the central California coast.
628 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Showers and thunderstorms will occur across central Illinois tonight, spreading into southern Illinois early Monday, as a cold front moves across the region. Once this front passes through the area later Monday, cooler and less humid conditions will overspread the region, persisting into mid week. Some more development is taking place from northeast Iowa into Wisconsin, near the actual cold front. Have focused the highest PoP's over the northern CWA this evening, then lowered them down to about 40-50% near/north of I-72 the remainder of the night. Upper ridge amplifies west of the Rockies this week, as a large upper low currently in northern Manitoba slowly drifts eastward through the rest of the work week.
Will stick with the cooler temperatures. With light winds and low dewpoints in the 40s across the west, we think the lows will be below the NBM guidance, especially west. This appears in good agreement with the lower end Min temperatures on the ECM guidance.
Although all tropical cyclone watches and warnings have been discontinued for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, a Tornado Watch and Flash Flood Watch continues into the early hours of tonight.
Building high pressure ridge will keep the weather mainly dry with normal like temperatures. Flow aloft is then expected to become more southwesterly Monday night as disturbances ahead of troughing over the northeastern Pacific begin to move into the area.
/issued 230 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020/ An upper level trough is centered over southern Canada and extends down into the Northern Plains which is dampening the upper ridge over West Texas and southeast New Mexico. A cold front associated with the trough over southern Canada will push into the Texas panhandle on Monday with showers and thunderstorms expected to develop along this front.
Cooler and drier weather will return for the rest of the week. By 03Z-ish remnant vorticity shred and associated prefrontal trough will approach SW MI and support some decaying convection in our far NW. Temperatures and humidity level returns to much more comfortable levels as large upper low settles into eastern Canada and promotes (generally) a more northerly component to low level flow. Still watching Wed/Thu period for the potential for a few showers as higher theta-e bubble peels off Central Plains ridge and intersects weak convergent boundary. Upstream convection and associated cold front extends from northeast Lower Peninsula of Michigan southwest through south central Wisconsin to southwest Iowa this evening within swath of 2500 J/kg.
613 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020 The area will remain between high pressure to the east and low pressure inland through the week. Lows will range from the lower 70s inland to near 80 at the beaches. Also reoriented the low temperature grid slightly to better take into account mesoscale influences near the coast and in the open areas of Fort Stewart and the Francis Marion National Forest.
The Atlantic ridge extends just to the southeast U. A small upper trough feature was noted just off the northeast Florida peninsula, with some high altitude cyclonic flow dipping between the broad upper high iin the western Atlantic and the diffluent, anticyclonic flow across the Gulf of Mexico. The strongest showers and storms are expected to remain well south of the Lower Keys at this time, with a few making it perhaps over the Reef during the late evening/very early morning hours (Monday). The subtropical high pressure ridge axis will remain to our north for the week ahead, with mostly gentle to moderate easterly breezes.
Otherwise, the greatest chances of showers and thunderstorms will come late tonight across northeast Oklahoma as a cold front moves towards the area from the north. Focus will turn to the cold front currently into NW KS and associated convection.
A cold front is currently located across northeast Colorado and into Nebraska. In addition to the high PWAT, lift along the front will aid in extremely efficient rainfall production in the storms. Highs tomorrow will be obviously cooler with all the precipitation and lingering cloud cover.
537 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Upper flow over the region is zonal, between a trough to the north and high pressure to the south. Transient upper ridging moves over the northern plains Monday, resulting in a warmer and mostly dry day. Meanwhile, aforementioned low pressure will move ashore and approach the region. Warm air advection ahead of the low will help temps rise back into the lower 90s.
1030 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020 An upper ridge building in Monday will suppress convection. Weak surface ridging across the region. Dry and warm weather overnight with minimum temperatures in the low 70s.
538 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020 18Z Surface observations and RAP analysis indicated pre frontal trough across the southeast corner of the forecast area. Observations as well as visible satellite indicate cold front steadily advancing south and was located between Wray and St Francis. Already have convective initation along trough and with continued forcing along front expect storms to steadily increase in coverage through the afternoon. Fog, low stratus and cooler temperatures will build into the area in the morning which will diminish precipitation threat. Long range guidance suggests that WNW to NNW flow aloft will prevail over the Central/Northern Plains in this period -- on the N-NE periphery of an amplifying upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest/Intermountain West.
Very quiet behind yesterday's cold front with high pressure over most of the region. After the passage of yesterday's cold front we are back to near normal temperatures and dew points.
610 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Mid afternoon surface observations show a weak cold front is situated roughly from Spencer to Sioux City Iowa and continues to progress southeast through the region. The axis of the upper trough tracking east through the Canadian prairie provinces will progress through the Northern Plains tonight, spreading notably drier air into the region for a pleasant Monday. The passage of the upper trough places the region in drier and milder northwest flow aloft.
Expect another muggy night across the Mid-South with lows in the lower to mid 70s. Most of the Midsouth is in the low 90s at 2 pm with the potential to warm another degree or two. Temperatures may be a degree or so cooler tomorrow as the ridge begins to break down.
503 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020 High pressure will maintain dry and warmer weather into the early portion of Monday.
No changes to Low temp fcst which will be in the low to mid 70s. Ridge axis shifts south of the area leading to a developing offshore flow.
After this line of storms moves through, some rain showers may linger for a few hours before the cold front approaches later tonight and into the morning hours. IFR to MVFR ceilings and vis will be possible with the line of storms, then MVFR ceilings will be likely after the storms pass until the cold front clears during the early morning hours on Monday. Forecast Confidence is Medium Starting to see a few showers pop along the outflow boundary/surface cold front extending from northeast Iowa to Green Bay.
Monday afternoon will be warmer, and still looks to be potentially active with thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening, some of which may contain gusty wind.
STP Dry conditions exist across our cwa under building ridge aloft. Strong upper level ridge will bring dry/warmer conditions through Monday night, with many places seeing temps back to the lower 90s tomorrow. JKL Mid week still looks on track to be cooler and wetter.
632 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Surface analysis at 1 pm has a cold front sagging southeast, currently extending from central WI into northeast IA. Radar pretty quiet right now but expecting a broken line of showers/storms to form along the cold front as it progresses southeast through the rest of the area. Front and associated storms expected to push south of the area this evening as refreshing Canadian high pressure pushes in. Cooler/much drier airmass over the area through Monday with northwest winds in the the 10 to 20 mph range. The upper level low currently over central Manitoba will track slowly to the east allowing the upper level ridge to build back over the northern Rockies into the High Plains.
706 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Very quiet behind yesterday's cold front with high pressure over most of the region. After the passage of yesterday's cold front we are back to near normal temperatures and dew points.
713 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020 An upper ridge building in Monday will suppress convection. Weak surface ridging across the region. Dry and warm weather overnight with minimum temperatures in the low 70s.
In its wake we have a weakness in the subtropical ridge left over Texas. The low level flow is not well defined this morning as the pressure field has not yet recovered from the tropical intrusion. The low level flow will eventually come around to southeasterly today.
/issued 237 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020/ Upper level high pressure has moved southwestward from its previous position over eastern Kansas yesterday afternoon and is now centered over the Texas Panhandle, in general keeping the cumulus across the forecast area in check. The position of the upper high should keep that precip to the west and north of the forecast area tonight. The center of the upper high will continue to move to the west-southwest tonight as a sharp upper trough moves across the central Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. This in turn will help a cold front push south into the Panhandle tonight and into to the northern parts of the forecast area Monday while upper flow becomes more northwesterly on the downstream side of the ridge.
Near the surface, a cold front is moving slowly southeast across the Oklahoma Panhandle and south central Kansas. A cold front is currently located across northeast Colorado and into Nebraska. In addition to the high PWAT, lift along the front will aid in extremely efficient rainfall production in the storms. Highs tomorrow will be obviously cooler with all the precipitation and lingering cloud cover.
The Bermuda ridge dampens/shifts more east of the area Tuesday and increased Gulf moisture advects into the region. Above climo temps today mainly in the low to mid 90s then near norms for Tuesday given increased cloud/convective coverage.
Speaking of heating, ridging aloft should continue to build in, which should hamper most chances of rain for West Central Texas.
The main cold front will move from nw to se across srn WI btwn 09z-14Z. Areas of cigs below 1 kft and ground fog tonight but clearing with the cold frontal passage Mon AM. Modest westerly flow over Lake Michigan will shift northwest late tonight into Monday morning with the passage of a cold front. After this line of storms moves through, some rain showers may linger for a few hours before the cold front approaches later tonight and into the morning hours. IFR to MVFR ceilings and vis will be possible with the line of storms, then MVFR ceilings will be likely after the storms pass until the cold front clears during the early morning hours on Monday. Forecast Confidence is Medium Starting to see a few showers pop along the outflow boundary/surface cold front extending from northeast Iowa to Green Bay.
Moist easterly upslope flow at the low levels and mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km contributed to a corridor of 500-1000 j/kg MLCAPE from the southern NE Panhandle into east-central WY.
1152 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Mid afternoon surface observations show a weak cold front is situated roughly from Spencer to Sioux City Iowa and continues to progress southeast through the region. The axis of the upper trough tracking east through the Canadian prairie provinces will progress through the Northern Plains tonight, spreading notably drier air into the region for a pleasant Monday. The passage of the upper trough places the region in drier and milder northwest flow aloft.
With a high pressure ridge building into Montana from the west, the dry anticyclonic northwest flow aloft is keeping skies clear across North Central and Southwest Montana. Patchy fog may form once again in the West Yellowstone area, but warm and dry conditions today may have been enough to decrease the low level moisture left by yesterday evening's showers. Building high pressure ridge will keep the weather mainly dry with normal like temperatures. Flow aloft is then expected to become more southwesterly Monday night as disturbances ahead of troughing over the northeastern Pacific begin to move into the area.
A deep and sharp western Atlantic ridge axis extending from the Northwest Caribbean Sea northward into extreme South Florida will result in extremely dry air for at least the next several days.
There's no reason to expect anything otherwise given the consistency of the current air mass, as weak high pressure continues to hold its place both at the surface and aloft. First, the additional cloud cover will contribute to temperatures that are a few degrees cooler than what we've been experiencing. Second, the surface boundary will leave a swath of moisture that will help keep POP's up throughout the week and eventually gets picked up by a more aggressive west-to-east moving low pressure system maybe this weekend.
137 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2020 High pressure remains in control Monday. Cold front Tuesday night.
227 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2020 High pressure remains in control through tonight. Cold front Tuesday night.
While the low levels are drier, they aren't that dry, and we've observed plenty of rain reaching the ground in much drier environments, so would not count out a very localized, brief heavy rain threat, but certainly no flooding expected. Increasing southwest flow on Tuesday should pretty well dry everyone out again with temperatures beginning to increase as an upper-level ridge noses in off the Pacific.
With the presence of the low, showers and storms may continue through the evening into the overnight hours in the south. With the rain and cloud cover, expect temperatures to be a little cooler than previous days ranging from the low 80s in the south to around 90 north.
DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 73 89 73 87 / 50 20 70 40 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 72 88 72 86 / 40 20 60 50 80 Oak Ridge, TN 91 71 88 71 87 / 50 20 70 50 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 69 86 68 85 / 40 30 70 50 70.
1136 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Upper flow over the region is zonal, between a trough to the north and high pressure to the south. Transient upper ridging moves over the northern plains Monday, resulting in a warmer and mostly dry day. Meanwhile, aforementioned low pressure will move ashore and approach the region. Warm air advection ahead of the low will help temps rise back into the lower 90s.
As for temperatures, a prevailing northeasterly flow combined with increased cloud cover will result in highs only up into the mid/upper 70s(F) to possibly the lower/mid 80s(F) in some locations this afternoon.
and Tuesday Cooler and much less humid conditions are expected today on the backside of a departing cold front. Daytime highs are expected to range from the middle to upper 70s across north-central Wisconsin, to the lower 80s across east-central Wisconsin and portions of central Wisconsin as dew points settle into the 55 to 60 degree range. Tuesday will be similar to today with respect to high temperatures as a low pressure system passes well to the north.
A cold front will approach the northern part of the state late Monday afternoon, bringing a line of showers and thunderstorms to the northern terminals. is undergoing amplification, with a ridge building along the Rockies. A northwesterly flow pattern will be in place over the mid south by late Monday, and will allow for a cold front to approach northern sections of the forecast area.
Early this morning a cold front stretched from far northwest OK into eastern KS with convection beginning to expand once again to the north of the boundary. The trend as we move into the middle part of the week will be for the upper ridge to shift west with stronger flow developing across the Southern Plains.
An unsettled weather pattern arrives by mid week and sticks around through the weekend, bringing rain chances and somewhat cooler temperatures. Storms have been relatively tame most of the afternoon, but were showing signs of intensifying in far southeast Nebraska where temperatures had climbed into the lower 90s before clouds/precip rolled in. 5 and 2 inches with freezing levels above 15kft. While current storms are forming along outflow, real cold front appears to lie northwest of the Omaha and Lincoln areas.
Will stick with the cooler temperatures. With light winds and low dewpoints in the 40s across the west, we think the lows will be below the NBM guidance, especially west. This appears in good agreement with the lower end Min temperatures on the ECM guidance. The h500 flow will initially be dominated by the closed h500 low over Hudson Bay, which keeps the h500 ridge axis west of North Dakota through the day Tuesday.
Included PROB30 TSRA group for the highest chances of t-storms and included gusty winds and MVFR conditions for now. Water Vapor imagery shows that within a broad upper ridge over the southeastern U. , there is a weak upper low spinning just E of ne FL coast. Little change in temperatures expected during this period with highs in lower 90s and lows in the lower-mid 70s.
ECMWF is more bullish with precip chances and amounts, especially by late Fri-Sat with a cutoff upper low slowly moving through the region.
the unsettled weather will become common tonight when a slow moving cold front will move through the area. Slow moving cold front moves thorugh tonight with fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms. Somewhat cooler and much less humid Tuesday in wake of front.
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): The combination of continued high moisture across the atmospheric column along with general 500mb troughing in between Tropical Depression Hanna to the southwest in Mexico and a mid-level disturbance over Louisiana will keep the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region through the short term period. Regarding the coastal hazards, with the swell gradually on the decrease, will allow for the high surf advisory to expire at 9 AM CDT.