Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
257 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2016 Upper level high pressure across the southeast will drift eastward over the region tonight as an upper trough digs into the northern plains. A very cool start with temperatures in the 60s this morning away from the coast will rise around 25 degrees this afternoon into the lower 90s. With the slight moisture increase across the southeast portion of the area tonight, overnight lows will remain in the lower 70s there. Otherwise, one last cool morning will prevail with lows in the low/mid 60s across the interior. Mid level ridge over the SE U.
511 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2016 The strong ridge aloft over the MS/OH valleys will keep us much warmer than normal through the end of the week. Muggy air will stick around until a cold front passes this weekend.
Current Situation and Analysis -- Lower-tropospheric flow has increased during the last 24 hours due to the approach of a low-level trough in the trade-wind easterlies. However, a plume of deep tropical moisture is just upstream over the Bahamas in association with the trough, which seems to have broken away from its parent tropical wave that we have been tracking for several days.
The showers and wind will diminish during the overnight hours as a ridge begins to build over the area. The higher valleys could even drop into the 20s. This increased cloud cover will limit the amount cooling around Polebridge and West Glacier.
Not a big change synoptically from previous days with a ridge encompassing much of the southeastern states. Given how dry we are and noticing the temps from yesterday, will be leaning towards the higher side of guidance for both days. This gives highs in the lower to middle 90s. Dew points should also mix each afternoon to the lower 60s, maybe even upper 50s again so heat index values won't be much of an issue.
A strengthened offshore high pressure ridge will increase afternoon temperatures the next few days. The high pressure ridge combined with an inland thermal low pressure trough will increase offshore winds across higher elevations. Mostly clear skies will prevail across north west California the next few days as a high pressure ridge persist across the the region. An inland thermal low pressure trough interacting with the high pressure ridge will increase winds across higher ridge tops today and Friday.
341 AM CDT THU SEP 8 2016 A broad upper trough is over the northern conus with an upper ridge over the southern conus. The trough over the northern part of the country will deepen and send a cold front southward on Friday.
The flow will shift to northwest on Friday as a low pressure system moves across the northern Rockies and into the north- central Plains states.
359 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2016 The ridge of high pressure that has brought warm and dry weather to eastern Kentucky the past week or so, will finally loosen its grip on the region. A weak cold will gradually approach from the northwest, and will displace the ridge enough to allow a few showers and storms to form and make their way into the I-64 corridor by late this afternoon. The ridge should weaken just enough to allow the front to penetrate as far south as the Ohio River. However, the ridge will restrengthen and should begin pushing the cold front back northward by the end of the day on Friday.
Even though this feature may mostly miss the DVN CWA, but could still clip the SE corner, moisture is expected to pool ahead of a cold front Friday evening and night.
650 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2016 The strong ridge aloft over the MS/OH valleys will keep us much warmer than normal through the end of the week. Muggy air will stick around until a cold front passes this weekend.
Precipitation chances will finally return to the forecast today as the upper level ridging over the region starts to flatten out a bit. A trailing front from this low will stretch across the Great Lakes region and upper Midwest. South of this boundary we will have moisture pooling across the Lower Ohio Valley. The best chance for storms looks to be across southern IN and north central KY on the north side of the upper level ridge and closer to the frontal boundary.
409 AM MDT THU SEP 8 2016 Outside of a few high clouds floating across the southern zones this morning, little impact felt from post-Tropical Cyclone Newton.
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, with the highest storm chances over KRSW, KFMY, KPGD, and KSRQ.
650 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2016 Showers and a few thunderstorms will be scattered across the area this morning ahead of a weak cold front.
In the upper levels, a large ridge remains spread across much of the southeast half of Conus from the northern part of Mexico northeastward into the Ohio Valley. 08 The upper level ridge will remain the primary influence on our weather through the rest of the work week, helping to keep conditions hot and dry. 25/Owen A ridge of high pressure aloft will help to suppress shower and thunderstorm development through Friday, with low rain chances returning over the weekend.
The low clouds are expected to linger through much of the morning and maybe til the noon hour. High temperatures in the low to mid 80s. a cold front moves through during the day with some showers and thunderstorms possible generally east of a line from McCook to Colby and Tribune.
Ridge of high pressure remains dominant over us with above normal temperatures and mostly sunny skies the main story today.
404 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2016 High pressure. Models are in good agreement with handling of upper level ridging and the trough/associated weakening surface front.
352 AM CDT THU SEP 8 2016 Continental influenced dry air under large ridge of high pressure to maintain another dry stretch today and Friday.
118 AM EDT Thu Sep 8 2016 High pressure will prevail into this weekend.
Upper level high pressure will continue over the area for the next several days.
Upper trough to swing across the northern plains on Friday.
However upper trof axis may keep a period of lift across the southeast corner of the state this morning where radar has shown some weak echoes from time to time. Should see a few cold pockets hit the freezing mark in some of the interior high mountain valleys.
431 AM CDT THU SEP 8 2016 A short wave trough will approach the Panhandles from the central and southern Rockies today and tonight as abundant low level moisture remains in place across the forecast area. Increasing chances for convection mainly Friday night with drier and much cooler conditions expected this weekend.
A trough remains slated to slide eastward across Montana today. A well-defined wave is expected to drop down the backside of the trough tonight into Friday morning, which may produce a light shower for the Island Park region tonight into early Friday morning. A brief temperature cooldown is expected behind the passage of the trough, with temperatures forecast below climatological normals on Friday.
100 AM CDT THU SEP 8 2016 High pressure was located over northwest Ontario at 1930Z with dry air, dewpoints in the lower to middle 50's, nosing into the Borderland to the north shore of Lake Superior. These showers were driven by a short wave trof lifting northeastward and upper level divergence from 250mb jet also lifting northeastward. A cold front sweeps through northeast Minnesota late tonight and northwest Wisconsin by 15Z/10am Thursday. Behind the front, high pressure will be building across the region. Cooler air will move in behind the departing wave Friday afternoon and night.
300 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2016 The ridge of high pressure that has brought warm and dry weather to eastern Kentucky the past week or so, will finally loosen its grip on the region. A weak cold will gradually approach from the northwest, and will displace the ridge enough to allow a few showers and storms to form and make their way into the I-64 corridor by late this afternoon. The ridge should weaken just enough to allow the front to penetrate as far south as the Ohio River. However, the ridge will restrengthen and should begin pushing the cold front back northward by the end of the day on Friday.
This will drive a cold front across the CWA tonight. Cooler Friday with max temperatures about 10-15 degrees less than today with a breezy northwesterly wind. Mins around freezing possible in cool-favored areas like the Laramie valley with areas like Douglas and Rawlins getting close as well.
309 AM PDT THU SEP 8 2016 Onshore flow with a deeper marine layer will bring cooler conditions to the forecast area. A weak upper level trough will move over southwest California this weekend.
Storms developed shortly before midnight as the low level jet converged into a weak boundary over central KS. Strong cold front still expected to push through Fri afternoon through Fri evening. Finally, a much cooler and especially drier airmass will be in place Sat with highs struggling to get out of the 70s. Still good agreement between the GFS and ECMWF in a front stalling out over the area for Mon night through Tue as the upper low spins over the Central Great Basin. Expecting scattered thunderstorms to fester much of the night mainly southeast of Salina to Great Bend, as a cold front slowly approaches from the northwest, interacting with a very moist and moderately unstable airmass in place across the region.
Cold pool aloft to -22c at 500mb under trough axis during peak heating may be enough for a few lightning strikes across our east as well Friday afternoon. Chilliest night will be tomorrow night as winds decrease and skies clear as ridge builds in behind this system.
414 AM CDT THU SEP 8 2016 High pressure to the south will result in favorable mixing conditions today.
346 AM CDT THU SEP 8 2016 High pressure builds in today leading to a sunny and seasonable afternoon across the Northland with a breezy west wind. Increasing clouds tonight into Friday with a chance for rain showers in a weak warm air advection regime ahead of an approaching upper low to the west. Best chance for showers and possible a few thunderstorms will be Thursday afternoon as another cold front moves in from the west with very good large-scale lift from the approaching mid-level trough axis. Highs today in the low 70s, a few degrees warmer along the Lake Superior shoreline in the Twin Ports and along the north shore due to downslope effects. Highs Friday a bit warmer ahead of the cold front in the low to mid 70s.
This trof will head SE and is fcst to deepen/amplify tonight. This high will quickly depart to the E today with return flow developing. a second cool front (associated with the BC trof) was advancing thru the Nrn Rockies. Near normal temps in the low-mid 80s. Friday: A cold front will be moving in from the northwest as the day starts.
Today through Friday A flat ridge of high pressure extends along the Gulf Coast this morning, and an analysis of water vapor imagery indicates a weak easterly wave lifting northwestward through the Gulf of Mexico beneath this ridge. Flow will be weak beneath the ridge, so do not expect coverage to be very widespread if showers or storms develop.
/issued 341 AM CDT THU SEP 8 2016/ A broad upper trough is over the northern conus with an upper ridge over the southern conus. The trough over the northern part of the country will deepen and send a cold front southward on Friday.
101 AM EDT Thu Sep 8 2016 Strong high pressure will remain over the region overnight into Friday. A weak backdoor cold front will dip south toward the area late Thursday night into early Friday before lifting back north as a warm front by Friday night.
A better chance for widespread showers and storms will start Friday afternoon and evening, as a cold front approaches northern Oklahoma.
431 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2016 The strong ridge aloft over the MS/OH valleys will keep us much warmer than normal through the end of the week. Muggy air will stick around until a cold front passes this weekend.
331 AM CDT THU SEP 8 2016 (Today and Tonight) Upper ridging, centered over the southcentral United States, will suppress most shower and thunderstorms development in West Central Texas. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 70s.
Upper low will track across the northern Gulf today.
Winds are northerly behind the upper low this morning and become more northwest with height. Overall it is a dry and stable profile, though there is a weird feature aloft from the back side of the upper low. Maybe the inversion at 480 mb is from subsidence due to the 100 kt jet associated with the closed low as it becomes cut off.
Could be even warmer if ECMWF is correct on 850mb temperatures which show 20C or more near/west of Highway 281. Upper level ridge will build over the region today and coupled with dry air will result in very warm temperatures. Highs should be able to climb into the lower/middle 90s over the Rio Grande and Brush Country to mid/upper 80s near Victoria. Even warmer temperatures are expected on Thursday with temps nearing 100 degrees at Laredo and near 90 at Corpus Christi.
The large trough of low pressure over the Northwest this morning is still centered offshore. We expect that the Sexton Summit area on I-5, Siskiyou Summit on I-5, and the higher passes will experience periodic problems from snowfall. Showers Thursday will be minor, mostly just flurries, as weak high pressure settles in.
Temps expected to max out in the lower 80s away from the coast, and the mid 70s near the gulf/bay, with mins dipping well into the 50s once again tonight. Upper air analysis has ridging aloft.
517 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017 IFR/LIFR conditions will gradually improve this morning as low pressure moves away, and pressure gradient increases. Today Through Thursday Night Satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low near the Arklamiss region this morning.
Modest instability combined with ascent occurring downstream from the trough is aiding in shower development, which have been moving onshore across the Redwood Coast early Wednesday morning. In addition, snow levels will reside near 2500-3500 feet, which will favor light snow accumulation across area mountains/ridges/high elevation travel corridors. By tonight, midlevel temperatures are forecast to gradually warm as upper heights rise behind a trough passage.
Upper low will be tracking from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes through the end of the week. This will result in a broad trof developing over the northern Rockies and prairies and pulling colder air out of the Arctic. Area of precipitation sliding east along this convergence zone, quickly transitioning from rain to snow with temperatures hovering in the low 30s. Dry air intrusion from the north could result in some freezing rain near the Canadian border, although chance of precipitation is low.
A broad upper low over lower MS this morning is progged to shift SE over the adjacent Gulf waters of MS/AL and NWFL by 12z this morning then further southeast to the west central FL coast by 00z Thu. High temps today will be a tad above seasonal norms ranging from the lower 70s for most inland areas and the upper 60s to near 70 along the immediate coast. With clearing generally from west to east lows tonight will range from the lower to middle 50s to the west and the mid to upper 50s to the east.
Otherwise, drier and much cooler conditions are forecast through late week with chilly overnight/morning temperatures. As a colder, drier air mass settled into the region, temperatures this morning are running about 5 to as much as 15 degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago under mostly clear skies. This too will lead to cooler daytime temperatures today with low to mid 50s likely in the lower elevations and 40s more common in the hills.
Temperatures will be considerably cooler today compared to recent days, with highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s at lower elevations, and in the 20s in the mountains.
1054 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017 Latest water vapor imagery shows well defined upper low in the NE Gulf of Mexico continuing to move east across North Florida this afternoon. Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 54 73 55 / 60 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 52 72 53 / 60 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 67 52 72 52 / 60 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 48 71 48 / 70 20 20 20.
The low level stratus is expected to mix out giving way to VFR conditions at all TAF sites by early afternoon with northerly winds. Slightly cooler and drier air will continue to filter across the region this morning. Only very slow clearing from west to east will continue today as wrap around clouds associated with the upper low over MS/AL moves slowly east as well. Thus, keeping mostly cloudy to cloudy skies over C and SC LA with highs only making it into the lower/mid 70s. For the remainder of the week, weak high pressure will gradually slide eastward tonight and Thursday.
Modest instability combined with ascent occurring downstream from the trough is aiding in shower development, which have been moving onshore across the Redwood Coast early Wednesday morning. In addition, snow levels are forecast to fall from 2500-3500 feet to 1500-2500 feet during the day, which will favor light snow accumulations across area mountains/ridges/high elevation travel corridors. By tonight, midlevel temperatures are forecast to gradually warm as upper heights rise behind a trough passage.
922 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017 Low pressure over Lake Superior will move across the Great Lakes. The trailing cold front will sag over the forecast area Thursday then lift back north as a warm front Thursday night.
/issued 233 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017/ An upper level low pressure system remains over Central Mississippi early this morning. A few showers associated with the upper low continue across the area, mainly over Northeast Mississippi and a line stretching from near Earle, Arkansas to Paris, Tennessee. Chances for showers will continue over Northeast Mississippi after sunrise as the upper low slowly moves to the southeast from Central Mississippi to the Gulf of Mexico. Expect a few more of these holes to develop through sunrise as the upper low moves to the southeast. Upper ridging will begin to occur over the area on the backside of the departing upper low today. This will allow highs to reach into the lower to mid 70s this afternoon.
An upper trough across British Columbia currently extends south across Northern California. The southern end of this trough Will move across Nevada. One last day of mild temperatures, with most areas reaching the lower to mid 60s, but ranging from 56 at Gordon to 70 at Stockville.
Rain spreading north over Fl as stacked low pressure shifts se towards s Fl. East southeast winds will increase as low pressure in ne Gulf moves se across the Fl peninsula through tonight.
Showers will be possible again on Thursday when a warm front is forecast to develop across Northern Ohio.
238 AM PST Wed Feb 22 2017 A low pressure trough moving through California today will bring cooler and partly cloudy weather and areas of strong winds in the mountains and deserts.
627 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017 Weak system crosses this morning for a cloudy and cooler day.
Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies cover the region and temperatures are running about 5-15 degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago.
Visibility should improve by mid morning with generally quiet weather expected through tonight as weak high pressure builds over the area. The exception could be a few showers redeveloping over eastern MS on the western periphery of the upper low.
652 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017 Low pressure over Lake Superior will move across the Great Lakes. The trailing cold front will sag over the forecast area Thursday then lift back north as a warm front Thursday night.
645 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017 Showers associated with an upper low will move east today, leaving mostly cloudy skies. Showers will be possible again on Thursday when a warm front is forecast to develop across Northern Ohio.
/issued 336 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017/ Upper-level flow over West Texas will trend more westerly today, then southwest this evening, as an upper-level trough quickly moves from the West Coast into the Great Basin. A pronounced low-level thermal ridge will develop over West Texas with 850mb temps rising to over 20 degrees C. The first high impact day will be on Thursday when a short wave within a broad trough ejects out over the south-central Plains. However, it should be noted that the low level thermal ridge will not be co-located with the 500mb wind max which is where we typically increased fire activity. Areas near the Texas/New Mexico state line that will see the highest winds have also seen the least amount of recent rainfall.
435 AM MST Wed Feb 22 2017 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over central SD, with cold front now through most of the forecast area except for south central SD. Temps are in the upper 30s and 40s most areas, a bit cooler across the higher Black Hills. Cooler weather today, though still above average, with highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s. EC and GFS are in pretty good agreement, with the GFS a bit stronger than the EC as the upper low passes east of the area.
For today, high temperatures are expected to be warmer than yesterday as 850 mb temperatures are progged to be around 3C warmer than yesterday's 00Z sounding. A weak trough/northwesterly wind shift is expected across the west; however, there will be no temperature impacts associated with the boundary. Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected Thursday afternoon with eastward propagation of a low-level thermal ridge. By Thursday night, surface winds will veer to the northwest as a cold front shifts southeastward.
SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): High pressure aloft and at the surface will continue to build across the RGV today. The mid level ridging will keep northwest flow and strong subsidence over the region. the 500mb ridge will be centered just to the east Deep South Texas. the downsloping effect from the higher terrain over northern Mexico will create even warmer conditions Thursday afternoon.
Temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s. A low pressure system will remain over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, just west of the Florida peninsula this afternoon. A trough of low pressure, extending southward from the parent area of low pressure, will pass through the Florida Keys today. The vast majority of the Florida Keys will receive measurable rainfall today as the aforementioned trough of low pressure moves through the service area.
624 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017 Weak low pressure moving southward toward Florida will keep onshore flow over the area with low chances of showers through Thursday.
South to west winds in the lower to mid levels of the atmosphere will reestablish today and tonight in response to another upper level trough that will quickly move into the Western CONUS. Tonight will be a warmer night with lows mostly in the 50s, but a few rural locations may dip into the upper 40s. As the upper level trough moves into the Intermountain West, a lee- side low will develop and strengthen, moving east into Kansas tomorrow.
Later on today, an approaching short wave and associated cold front will bring an increasing chance for showers, thunderstorms, and severe weather.
/issued 324 PM CST Mon Nov 21 2016/ The chilly weather of the past couple of days will soon be coming to an end with temperatures rapidly moderating as the ridge of cold high pressure shifts to our the east and southerly winds develop across the region in advance of the next storm system. Since these areas have already experienced two consecutive nights of freezing temperatures with this cold surge, a freeze warning will not be issued and instead a special weather statement discussing the cold temperatures and light freeze will be issued. High temperatures will rebound into the low and mid 70s on Tuesday and then into the mid and upper 70s on Wednesday.
1215 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2016 High pressure through Tuesday. A weak cold front mid week.