Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Water vapor satellite imagery this morning finally shows the upper level high pressure circulation nearing the Four Corners region. This will allow southerly flow on along the lower quadrant of the high pressure center to draw moisture north and west across Arizona. Monsoon moisture will remain over the region through the week underneath the subtropical high pressure. Accompanying the moisture and showers will also be cooler daytime temperatures.
Radar returns from both KAMX and KBYX have confirmed this, with several thunderstorms popping up along the lower Keys and in the Gulf waters to the north. Winds will begin to diminish though the day as the high amplitude trough continues to dig into the southeastern states and pushes the Bermuda high ridge axis southward into the area. As the ridge axis moves over the area, the boundary layer should warm and become drier. By Tuesday morning, the inverted trough over the Bahamas will be approaching the Keys area and south Florida. Guidance has been fairly consistent in shunting most of the moisture associated with the trough off to the north, so at this time little sensible weather impact is expected with the approach of the trough.
Will see upper level pattern break down today as trough digs in the eastern US. This trough will help to pull a cold front through South Texas by tomorrow. By Tuesday morning cold front will be pushing into South Texas with rain chances increasing.
Cold front positioned along the Ohio river early this morning. Should see this cold front slowly work its way southeastward through the day. Cooler air, for July anyhow, will be moving in. So, look for highs in the lower 80s, except 75 to 80 Plateau. Dewpoints will be in the low 60s so there will be noticeably less humidity.
In the low levels, weak pressure gradient and strong heating this morning has allowed the sea breeze to form. Most of this activity should stay over the water as the trough axis remains to our east and the subsidence assocd with the sea breeze circulation squashes most of what approaches the coast. weak low level SE-S flow will freshen some tonight as the western flank of the Atlantic ridge weakens/retreats eastward.
438 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 High pressure builds today for an overall pleasant day with minimal cloud cover to start with except some patchy fog before 8 am. After a cool start to temperatures this morning in the lower 40s, we should see another pleasant day with highs in the mid 70s. Temperatures warm some to the low to mid 80s Tuesday.
Showers and thunderstorms will increase during the afternoon, especially around GLH and GWO, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. /GG/ Today and Tonight: While mid level ridge continues to build over the Intermountain West, an abnormally strong mid level trough will dig southeast through the MS and OH valleys today and tonight. The cold front associated with this trough will dive anomalously far south into and through the forecast area today through tonight. While airmass convection will get underway by late morning over the area, convection will increase over northern portions by mid afternoon as the pre-frontal trough moves in from the northwest. The actual cold front looks to lag behind the trough some hundred miles or so.
For today, an upper ridge to our west amplifies which should keep the weather quiet over western and central North Dakota. Expect near normal to slightly below normal temperatures through Tuesday night as the ridge remains in place.
Early this morning the mid level trough was moving off into Missouri with precipitation located south of Garnett moving off to the south. Northerly winds will usher in drier air today and cooler temperatures are expected as well which will make for a pleasant day. A northwest flow pattern will continue into late week with the upper high in the west and a trough in the east.
445 AM MDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Water vapor shows upper ridge building into the northern Rockies with large scale subsidence/dry air over the northern plains. On Tuesday, a bit more return flow expected with highs well into the 80s as thermal ridge nudges eastward into eastern Wyoming. CAPE will increase but large scale subsidence should limit any thunderstorm development to the higher terrain of the Black Hills.
625 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Beautiful start to the work week with drier and cooler conditions dominating the region. Upper flow pattern will continue to be dominated by an amplified ridge centered over the desert SW and a trough over the northeast U. Tuesday will be another nice day, but temperatures will run a bit warmer than Monday with highs mostly in the low 80s. Models are in good agreement showing the ridge breaking down by mid- week, bringing the return of shower and thunderstorm chances. Upper level flow will transition to a more zonal component, leading to fast-moving ripples ahead of an upper level trough sliding into the Pacific Northwest.
The low-level ridge axis will likely remain to our north for one more day before retreating southeastward into the Atlantic tonight and Tuesday.
632 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 The much anticipated cold front has moved through CDS, is moving through PVW and will pass through LBB in the next hour or so. /issued 327 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019/ A cold front was sagging through the TX Panhandle early this morning. Once the cold front clears the forecast area by early morning, our hopes for meaningful rainfall drop drastically. By tomorrow night, though, the good dry air from the front should finally be filtering in, clearing us out and bringing us a cooler night.
623 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 /12Z TAFS/ A cold front will move south across the area from 14-18Z. Possible Rain and Cooler. A cold front will push south, across West Central Texas, today and bring the potential for rain and cooler temperatures. Then, warmer moist air, moving over the cooler air near the surface, may initiate showers and thunderstorms, over a greater area of West Central Texas tonight.
319 AM MDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Modest N-NNW flow aloft will prevail over the Tri-State area -- on the eastern periphery of a pronounced upper level ridge over the Rockies.
MVFR cigs will prevail for the first 6 hours of the TAF period behind a cold front that will continue to move across the area. /Issued 312 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019/ Ongoing convection consisting of both decaying MCS and renewed convection along advancing cold front will continue to spread ESE through the day. Today will mark the start of notably cooler and eventually drier conditions which will persist through much of the work week.
High pressure builds today for an overall pleasant day with minimal cloud cover to start with except some patchy fog before 8 am. After a cool start to temperatures this morning in the lower 40s, we should see another pleasant day with highs in the mid 70s. Temperatures warm some to the low to mid 80s Tuesday.
539 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Today-Tonight: Relatively straightforward forecast as 850MB trough swings through southeast KS before daybreak, which should end any threat of precipitation in southeast KS. Cooler air will continue to spill into the area through tonight.
658 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Conditions will vary between vfr and mvfr (possibly as low as ifr) as showers/storms affect the terminal sites with the passage of a cold front. Behind the front, northwest winds will usher in cooler and drier air, with vfr conditions returning by the end of the period. In the wake of the frontal passage, temperatures will be cooler.
High pressure over the Four Corners continues to build westward over California resulting in a more compressed marine layer this morning. The warming trend will stall a bit on Tuesday as a mid/upper level trough over the northern Pacific lifts northeastward across the Pacific Northwest.
355 AM MDT Mon Jul 22 2019 High pressure over the northern Plains and an upper ridge building over the Rockies will bring hot and dry weather to the Treasure state over the next few days.
Modest N-NNW flow aloft will prevail over the Tri-State area -- on the eastern periphery of a pronounced upper level ridge over the Rockies.
610 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 An upper ridge will build into the four corners region today, leaving the central CONUS under northwesterly flow. At the surface, high pressure will build south through the forecast area, out of the Dakotas.
South-southwest flow in the mid and upper levels will persist the next 24 hours as the region remains between strong high pressure over the Desert Southwest and low pressure off the PacNW.
413 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 For today, an upper ridge to our west amplifies which should keep the weather quiet over western and central North Dakota. Expect near normal to slightly below normal temperatures through Tuesday night as the ridge remains in place.
Showers and thunderstorms beginning to develop now as temperatures climb into the lower 90s. upper-level trough will help to push a weak frontal boundary all the way to the northern Gulf coast by late Tuesday and Tuesday night. The low-level ridge that has resided north of the region will be displaced to our south and east tonight and Tuesday.
222 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 221 PM CDT High pressure situated across the Plains will continue to build across the region through the period, but with the CWA remaining on the eastern edge of this high.
A moist airmass prevails out ahead of an approaching cold front, which will sweep through the region tonight.
Morning clouds will give way to enough afternoon sunshine for hot temperatures of around 100F in the lower valleys.
Post frontal temperatures will reach into the low to mid 80s, with northeast winds at the surface.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 71 82 62 / 60 70 60 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 67 78 59 / 90 90 50 10 Oak Ridge, TN 83 68 80 60 / 90 90 40 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 65 76 55 / 80 80 50 10 TN.
Band of thunderstorms has formed to our north, in connection with the cold front advancing toward our area. Will maintain the high POPs (likely to categorical), spreading from northwest to southeast, over the course of the next 24 hours.
Brisk north to northeast winds were ushering in a cooler and drier air mass. We may see a brief period of enhanced cloud cover and perhaps a sprinkle this evening across the eastern Ozarks, otherwise the big story for tonight will be the cooler temperatures. Highs in the lower to middle 80s can be expected with lows in the upper 50s to middle 60s.
418 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019 A much cooler and less humid air mass is in place across the region today and for much of the week as high pressure gradually builds into and across the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will be seasonable with the upper trough axis to our east. Each day will feature slightly warmer temperatures and increasing moisture. Increasing moisture and warmer temperatures with the southwest flow will yield itself to some diurnal chances of showers/thunderstorms. This will be in response to the building of high pressure to our west while low pressure departs Long Island.
251 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 It's a beautiful day out there this afternoon with highs in the upper 70s and dewpoints in the low 50s a welcome reprieve compared to the heat and humidity of last week. Similar conditions are expected tomorrow as the high remains centered over the region, but a streamer of vorticity pivoting around an upper level low well to our northeast may generate enough lift to kick off some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across western Wisconsin late tomorrow afternoon evening. Temperatures trend warmer towards the end of the week and into the weekend as the western ridge noses east into the central US and eventually flattens out over the weekend.
1115 AM MDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Updated Aviation Discussion Upper level ridge nosing north from the 4-corners region through the Central and Northern Rocky Mtn States today will provide significant warming with many lower elevation locations seeing afternoon temperatures around 90. Hoenisch Strong high pressure overhead will result in much warmer temperatures through early this week, peaking Tuesday with temperatures in the upper-80s to mid-90s. Updated 1115 AM MDT Mon Jul 22 2019 (18Z TAFs) An upper level ridge of high pressure centered over central MT will maintain mostly VFR conditions through at least the next 24 hours.
256 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Cold front will continue to move southeastward through the evening. Cold front has made it south of Allegheny county as of this hour, with some increase in speed with the approaching upper trough. Upper trough will pivot across the region early Tuesday with a secondary wave deepening said trough. Temperatures will rebound by the weekend as southerly flow returns and high pressure slides off the Atlantic coast.
1254 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 High pressure settles in across the four corners region Monday through Tuesday. Cooler airmass will remain across the high plains with temperatures remain unseasonably cool as highs will only be in the mid to upper 70s for Monday. The northwest Sandhills will be slightly warmer with highs in the low 80s which is near normal. Upper level high pressure remains in place across the southwest CONUS through the week.
A cooler start to the work week overall for the Midwest this morning. Cooler temperatures are expected behind the front, with highs today again only reaching into the 80s. and around 11C-13C at 850mb, a full 10 degrees Celsius cooler than the middle of last week. Overall, the pattern over the CONUS starts to take shape with ridging over the western half, and a trough over the eastern half, keeping northwesterly flow over the midsection through at least midweek before it starts to morph. The northwesterly flow will keep the cooler temps in place. Traditionally, that northwesterly flow would be susceptible to waves propagating into the trough with a quick shower threat.
Ridging aloft and at the surface will continue to support a dry airmass through Tuesday night.
Elsewhere, outside of a storm in the Gulf waters well northwest of the lower Keys, convection has been shut down in the Straits and Hawk Channel. The vigorous trough currently sitting near Andros island will slowly move off to the northwest towards south and east central Florida, and NHC has given this a medium chance of developing into a tropical depression. The current thinking is that the Keys will not see any significant impacts from either the trough, or a depression if it does form. However, the upper Keys and surrounding waters will see a higher chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow as the trough approaches.
231 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Highly amplified upper flow remains established over the lower 48 with an upper trough in the eastern Conus and a stout upper ridge centered to our west near the 4 Corners region and central Rockies. Surface dewpoints will fall into the lower to mid 50s Tue afternoon. The upper high strengthens to 596 dm by midweek with rising heights again over West Texas under northerly flow aloft. Precipitation will likely remain in northern Mexico into the Gulf along the frontal system, and underneath the high in the higher elevations of the central Rockies. There are some differences between the medium range models late in the period in terms of the strength and position of the upper high which would have implications for precipitation chances next Monday and beyond.
Skies will be clear and winds light, with lows dropping into the lower to mid 50s. Skies should be mostly sunny with highs a few degrees warmer than today. Upper level high pressure will be established across the four corners and desert southwest midweek through the weekend. Our area will be located on the northeast side of the ridging with northwest flow aloft.
The approach of a trough and embedded MCVs will help initiate the activity in a very moist environment. Numerous SHRA/TSRA will form through the afternoon and evening as a cold front arrives from the northwest.
A pair of low pressure waves will move along the front tonight into Tuesday.
302 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Our attention is focused on an area of low pressure now over the western Bahamas. The core of this low pressure system is forecast to remain offshore and to our east, bringing increased shower and thunderstorm coverage from tonight into tomorrow, particularly across our eastern areas.
158 PM MDT Mon Jul 22 2019 PAC NW trough re-loading will continue through mid week, supporting downstream ridging over the Rockies.
The CONUS will be under a highly amplified (western ridge/eastern trof) longwave mid/upper pattern through midweek. Dry high pressure air will spill into our region under deep northerly flow. Surface dewpoints as low as the lower 50s (north) tonight should stabilize to near 60 for the remainder of the short term period, allowing lows to start out tonight in the upper 50s/lower 60s and tick upward only slightly through Wed night.
With the added cloud cover, temps may stay a touch cooler on Tuesday so will not issue another heat advisory at this time. A cold front will slip though the region Tuesday night.
500 mb chart showed northwest flow in place across our area, with a ridge over the western US extending up into parts of western Canada. There was a 596 decameter anticyclone over southwest CO, and that should generally remain somewhere in the Four Corners region over the next few days.
1150 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Today-Tonight: Relatively straightforward forecast as 850MB trough swings through southeast KS before daybreak, which should end any threat of precipitation in southeast KS. Cooler air will continue to spill into the area through tonight.
258 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Surface cold front had dropped to the I-40 corridor of west TN at 2 PM CDT / 19Z.
302 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Our attention is focused on a trough of low pressure now over the eastern Bahamas. The core of this low pressure system is forecast to remain offshore and to our east, bringing increased shower and thunderstorm coverage from tonight into tomorrow, particularly across our eastern areas.
133 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2019 Pleasant conditions in place across the area this afternoon with high pressure building in from the Northern Plains. High pressure builds in west of the Mississippi River tonight into Tuesday, keeping us in northerly surface flow. A weak mid-level trough/pv-advection drops southeast through portions of eastern/central WI Tuesday afternoon. High pressure continues to build overhead with lighter winds at the surface Tuesday Night which may lead to some valley fog.
Most terminals should improve into VFr early this evening as daytime convection wanes however due to an actual cold front moving into the area early tomorrow morning low cigs and even shra will begin to move back in from the northwest with most of the region seeing some impacts throughout most of the day tomorrow.
1220 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 /18Z TAFS/ Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across the region south of Interstate 20, along a southward moving cold front. /issued 623 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019/ /12Z TAFS/ A cold front will move south across the area from 14-18Z. /issued 457 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019/ (Today and Tonight) A cold front will push south, across West Central Texas, today and bring the potential for rain and cooler temperatures. Then, warmer moist air, moving over the cooler air near the surface, may initiate showers and thunderstorms, over a greater area of West Central Texas tonight.
154 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 The upper ridge centered over the Four Corners region today will remain confined to the West as a strong trough digs over the Eastern US. This will keep the region on the east side of the high which is expected to move little over the next 10 days. A rare summer cold front has sagged into the area this morning bringing a change from our recent hot wx.
Winds are light except far east on the periphery of the ridge axis. With high pressure over the Plains the surface moisture funneling between the two/instability along the trough. with the aforementioned low/trough remaining over the Rockies. amplified upper ridge sets up over the Rockies.
Latest obs showing any patchy fog has dissipated and is in tandem in areas where the low cloud cover over the western cwa is beginning to lift/break up. Modest N-NNW flow aloft will prevail over the Tri-State area -- on the eastern periphery of a pronounced upper level ridge over the Rockies.
1012 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 A cold front is slicing through southeast Oklahoma into west-central Arkansas with scattered showers in the vicinity of the boundary.
A trough over the eastern United States is helping to bring a weak cold front through South Texas by Tuesday morning. Temperatures are expected to be a few degrees cooler for Tuesday and Tuesday night, but humidity will still remain Tuesday ahead of drier air moving in Tuesday night.
/issued 632 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019/ The much anticipated cold front has moved through CDS, is moving through PVW and will pass through LBB in the next hour or so. /issued 327 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019/ A cold front was sagging through the TX Panhandle early this morning. Once the cold front clears the forecast area by early morning, our hopes for meaningful rainfall drop drastically. By tomorrow night, though, the good dry air from the front should finally be filtering in, clearing us out and bringing us a cooler night.
We will see scattered convection later today over the mountains/foothills (beginning around noon in the high country), with a cold pool perhaps taking storms as far east as Roundup- Columbus this evening. A ridge moving over montana will bring increased heights through the next couple days, allowing temperatures to rise to the mid 90s by Tuesday.
257 PM MDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Thunderstorms starting to percolate along the higher elevations this afternoon, being buoyed by midlevel impulse and daytime heating reaching the mid 80s in places. Conditions tomorrow will be similar to today, with daytime heating sparking thunderstorms on the higher elevations, and slowly drifting east during the afternoon.
Cooler and drier air will be the story for the next few days, as a Canadian ridge of high pressure settles over the area. Latest model projections suggest that this ridge will make slow progress to the east over the next several days, as the upper level flow stays out of the N-NW. Ridge will slowly slide into the Ozarks and Mississippi valley by Thu/Fri, which will lead to a gradual warming trend back towards normal for end of the week, for areas west of I-135, as southerly winds return to the region.
1249 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 An upper ridge will build into the four corners region today, leaving the central CONUS under northwesterly flow. At the surface, high pressure will build south through the forecast area, out of the Dakotas.
Precip will gradually diminish late tonight through early tomorrow morning from west to east and drier, cooler air will enter the mid-state.
315 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 High pressure centered in the northern Plains bringing a delightful day to the dvn cwa. Tonight: High pressure bringing very comfortable weather in the short term. Tuesday: High pressure in control so plenty of sunshine with afternoon temperatures rising into the lower 80s, but dewpoints will be comfortable in the upper 50s. Tuesday night: An upper level disturbance riding southeast in the eastern trough may trigger isolated showers or storms in northern IL in the evening hours.
1236 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Beautiful start to the work week with drier and cooler conditions dominating the region. Upper flow pattern will continue to be dominated by an amplified ridge centered over the desert SW and a trough over the northeast U. Tuesday will be another nice day, but temperatures will run a bit warmer than Monday with highs mostly in the low 80s. Models are in good agreement showing the ridge breaking down by mid- week, bringing the return of shower and thunderstorm chances. Upper level flow will transition to a more zonal component, leading to fast-moving ripples ahead of an upper level trough sliding into the Pacific Northwest.