Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A closed low aloft tracks northeastward across SD while ridging from the Gulf of Mexico to the Great Lakes eases eastward. A surface reflection of the upper low trails a cold front that reaches south to central TX. High pressure over eastern VA/NC begins to slide offshore. The high pressue on the Mid-Atlantic coast dominates overnight with east-northeast to east low level flow streaming stratocumulus clouds across the area. High pressure centered north of the waters will provide robust northeast and east winds. The high shifts east during the next couple of days as a cold front approaches the area.
Thus, at the time the freezing rain potential seems somewhat lower given the road temperatures expected take a few more hours at least to cool to freezing. A negatively tilted upper level trough will swing into the Northern Plains tonight. Models continue to indicate a brief period of warmer temperatures aloft and the potential for freezing rain and sleet over portions of the James River Valley this evening. Temperatures will remain near the critical freezing threshold for much of the overnight and daytime hours of Monday across the James Vally. Eventually colder air will advect in and change the rain/freezing rain to all snow by Monday night.
614 PM EST Sun Nov 27 2016 Widespread rain due to a deep low pressure center moving from the northern Rockies into eastern South Dakota will overspread the region late tonight from west to east.
Water vapor imagery this afternoon has the main upper trough lifting northeast out of Wyoming while an upstream trough was surging southward over western Oregon. With these stronger, veering winds in the lower levels, there is a small chance an isolated storm forms within the better ML CAPE and produces damaging wind gusts. Residual clouds from the stacked upper low to the north during the day Monday may reach as far south as northern Kansas, otherwise skies are partly sunny with highs warming back to near 60 degrees. Large scale upper low pivots slowly across the Central Plains into the Great Lakes through late in the week.
The upper trof is already beginning to intensify across the northern high plains while the flow aloft shifting west to northwest over Colorado. With confidence low on this wind event will leave the high wind watch in place for now. Overall snow amounts will be on the lower side of criteria but gusty winds will still create impact on the mountain passes.
924 PM EST Sun Nov 27 2016 High pressure over the upper Ohio valley will move off to the east through monday.
Water vapor imagery is currently showing an upper low moving out of Colorado northeast into Nebraska.
Most of the precipitation has not been reaching the ground in the lower elevations due to dry conditions. Drying will take place behind this system's cold front in the lower elevations with snow showers continuing over the central and northeast mountains for most of Monday.
958 PM EST Sun Nov 27 2016 A narrow north to south ridge of high pressure will slide east across Pennsylvania tonight and Monday, accompanied by dry weather with light wind.
Water vapor imagery and 00z sounding both showing increasing upper level moisture as cirrus spill in from the northwest over midlevel ridge. SCEC conditions expected in the offshore waters overnight into Monday with advisory conditions potentially developing Monday evening/night as sfc cold front moves towards the local area.
918 PM EST Sun Nov 27 2016 High pressure will move off to the east on Monday. Periods of rain with several waves of low pressure Monday night and mid week. Cooler high pressure to end the week. A high pressure system will move off to the east, allowing for southerly winds to increase later tonight into Monday. Due to the winds, will go on the warmer side of MOS lows for the western counties. Lots of dry air in the lower levels, so precipitation trying to come into the area from the west will have to break through this layer. A cold front will be knocking on our western doorstep to start the period, moving through Monday night.
Strong winds and showers will end this evening as a fast moving cold front quickly moves southeast into Arizona.
330 PM MST Sun Nov 27 2016 A cold front continues to traverse the region this afternoon. High temperatures Monday will be cooler with highs generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
However, all it takes is a little freezing pcpn to make roads slick. Low pressure centered near the Colorado/Nebraska border is on track to deepen and slowly propagate northwards towards the Red River Valley overnight. Temperatures along and east of the valley will stay above freezing tonight and warm into the low to mid 40s on Monday.
High pressure moves off the mid Atlc seaboard overnight into the western Atlc.
657 PM EST Sun Nov 27 2016 Aviation A warm front will move into our region early this week and bring showers and milder conditions Monday.
639 PM EST Sun Nov 27 2016 High pressure will move off to the east on Monday. Periods of rain with several waves of low pressure Monday night and mid week. Cooler high pressure to end the week. A high pressure system will move off to the east, allowing for southerly winds to increase later tonight into Monday. Due to the winds, will go on the warmer side of MOS lows for the western counties. Lots of dry air in the lower levels, so precipitation trying to come into the area from the west will have to break through this layer. A cold front will be knocking on our western doorstep to start the period, moving through Monday night.
1029 PM EST Sun Nov 27 2016 A narrow ridge of high pressure will build in from the west overnight and Monday. High pressure will crest over the area Monday night before shifting east.
Low pressure is approaching with a very tight pressure gradient and a cold front. Expect the cold front to move through central Arkansas during mid day Monday. The cold front should be in eastern Oklahoma at 12Z then central Arkansas at 18z Monday.
A High Wind Watch will be issued for Wise County due to the higher terrain. Chattanooga Airport, TN 44 67 55 73 / 0 30 100 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 39 65 55 72 / 0 10 100 70 Oak Ridge, TN 40 62 53 71 / 0 20 100 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 31 60 49 69 / 0 10 90 80 NC.
Adjusted the low for tonight down a degree or two. With high clouds lingering over the area, it will much warmer than last night, but temperatures should fall a few more degrees this evening.
Afternoon gusts will likely approach/exceed 25 knots at a times as pressure gradient increases behind todays cold front. Behind the front, the flow continues to shift northeasterly, ushering in a slightly cooler and drier airmass as high pressure builds from the north. High pressure will dominate the weather pattern for the early week period, with partly cloudy skies and generally dry weather outside of a few sprinkles/light showers along the east coast.
514 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016 Upper trough axis continues to move toward the forecast area with strongest push of large scale motion for ascent occurring this afternoon over our forecast area just ahead of the trough axis. Latest surface analysis shows center of the low over south central Nebraska and this continues to quickly move northeast. Near-term CAM's support this and do indicate some heavier QPF values spreading across northeast Nebraska through 03Z where strongest large scale lift will reside as the upper trough continues into the eastern Dakotas.
Moisture continues to stream over the Pacific Northwest this evening as the trough advances towards the area, with snowfall expected to develop and become widespread overnight. As the trough axis moves through the area, strong winds are anticipated in its wake, with a Wind Advisory issued for the western Magic Valley this afternoon.
Lows tonight will be much warmer than lows Sunday morning due to warm air advection. The higher elevations (above 1000 feet agl) along and east of I-65 may be gusts of 40 mph or higher.
Potent wave rotating around the southern base of the larger Northern Plains cyclone is currently passing across Arizona and will begin to influence weather across the Southern Plains late tonight through Monday morning.
533 PM EST Sun Nov 27 2016 A narrow ridge of high pressure will build in from the west overnight and Monday. High pressure will crest over the area Monday night before shifting east.
Lots of low clouds VFR West with somewhat cooler upper 70s and low 80s on track. Convection should gradually weaken as it progresses eastward and encounters the lower instability. A series of weak upper impulses will cross the Southern Plains over the northern fringe of a weak upper ridge over Mexico. These impulses will aid in the development of convective complexes each afternoon across the Plains ahead of a cold front and dryline. As the week progresses, the upper ridge will weaken and an upper trough currently off the California coast will slowly move eastward as it remains removed from the stronger westerlies.
1247 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 A warm front will approach from the south today and then move north across the region late tonight through Monday. A cold front will cross the area Monday night.
1202 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 A weak cold front will cross the area late this afternoon into tonight. High pressure will build in through mid week.
1023 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 Tropical Depression Bonnie will linger along the Carolina coast line through the first part of this week while an upper level trough will track north of the area through Monday.
659 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016 Generally VFR as the region remains under the influence of eastern based high pressure. Per this lower confidence. Despite weak upper level ridging trying to build across our area, will continue to carry low rain chances across Southeast Texas today and Monday.
A weak cold front was moving over Lake Michigan late this morning and it will slide across the CWA this afternoon. SW flow at the low level will help keep the western CWA fairly stable. Severe threat is fairly low this afternoon and appears to be restricted to areas east of GRR and AZO as diurnal heating combines with sfc convergence from weak cold front moving through.
1043 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 Weak high pressure will be building down over the Gulf of Mexico and ridge across the area today with an upper trough in place across the state. Scattered mainly afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the highest chances inland of I-75 and south of I-4. Easterly flow will become W/NW through the afternoon as weak high pressure builds over the Gulf of Mexico and the sea breeze sets up over land. Ridging will then be in place across the waters through the week and keep winds and seas light.
This low will continue to also push east at 20 mph and could potentially result in some wind impacts as it progresses further east.
Given temperature trends this morning, will go ahead and leave the high temperature forecast alone, but if thunderstorm coverage is greater or earlier than currently expected, something closer to what the HRRR has shown, these may need to be decreased on a future update. Overall, the highest chance still appears to be over the western half of the forecast area through tonight.
visible imagery now showing clouds moving in from our west associated with upper trof. upper level ridge still hangs tough over our eastern zones today as an upper level trof approaches from the west. also have a backdoor front which will be edging into our zones east of the Greens from NH bringing clouds and cooler temps.
so any rain that is falling west of the blue ridge is occurring in an environment that is not quite saturated. Setup continues to favor showers over the east during the night but usually at night tropical systems with respect to rainfall tighten up, such that areas along and west of the Blue Ridge appear to dry out after midnight or have limited coverage. High humidity and showers will be in the forecast as long as it remains with highest pops along and east of the Blue Ridge, and lowest in the west. With more breaks in the cloud cover, temperatures will be warmer than normal with 80s for highs.
1036 AM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016 A pair of troughs organizing over the western NOAM in British Columbia and just off the central California coast.
The 14 UTC surface analysis this morning showed weak high pressure off to the west of the region with Tropical Depression Bonnie now inland just NE of Charleston SC. Should also be a warm day, with highs generally in the low to mid 90s.
1044 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016 Another quiet surface map this morning with weak high pressure over SE Texas allowing for light winds. Capping from the elevated mixed layer is not as strong but still some weak subsidence from ridging aloft.
A mix of MVFR to IFR CIGS developed earlier in the morning across the ranchlands and are moving with the mid and upper level flow ridging aloft. /issued 355 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): Upper level low entering the CA coast weakens early in the short term aiding a zonal flow across S Texas. The surface pressure gradient strengthens this afternoon as weak trough digs South across the Desert Southwest.
The offshore flow will allow for max temps to push well into the lower 90s over inland areas today and mid/upper 80s along the beaches as only a weak sea breeze will develop along the coast.
High pressure ridge aloft will build across Colorado on Thursday with dry conditions and warmer temperatures.
A high pressure centered over northern MO casually moves out of the region over the next couple of days. Upper level ridging builds in which keeps our area dry for the next several days. Low level flow begins to accelerate Thursday ahead of an approaching midlevel trough in the intermountain west. This flow pushes warmer air into the area during the tail end of the week bringing a brief return to early fall.
An even colder night tonight with widespread freezing temperatures.
(This evening through Thursday) Low clouds have been persistent much of the day, helping keep temperatures from moving much with readings generally in the low to mid 40s areawide early this afternoon. Given this uncertainty, refrained from any upgrades to a freeze warning for current frost advisory area, with the highest probability of freezing temperatures located just to our west across the panhandles. However, portions of far western Oklahoma may see temperatures briefly dip below freezing overnight, especially if clouds clear quicker than expected. Therefore, decided to stay on the cooler end of temperature guidance for these areas for highs Thursday (mainly in the mid 50s), with warmer temperatures across western Oklahoma (upper 50s/low 60s).
Mixing today has been greater than expected, resulting in drier dewpoints and slightly warmer high temperatures.
Expect temps at or below freezing along and north of the TN/MS state line where a Freeze Warning is in place.
Upper trough responsible for this current cool spell will continue to slowly shift eastward, but not before providing for a couple more chilly days and nights. Weak waves pivoting around the western flanks of the trough will produce some mainly mid-high level cloudiness from time to time, but precip chances look non-existent through Thursday.
205 PM MDT Wed Nov 3 2021 High pressure over the region will continue to bring dry and mild conditions this evening leading into Thursday.
A high amplitude trough of low pressure extended from Quebec, southwestward into the upper midwest. West of this feature, a high amplitude ridge extended from the intermountain west, north into southern portions of the Northwest Territories of Canada. West of this feature, low pressure was located over the Gulf of Alaska with a trough extending south of this feature. Later this morning, surface winds will take on a westerly component as a slow moving warm front tracks across the area. Across the western forecast area, temperatures will be warmer as skies clear earlier in the day. Ridging aloft will transition east onto the central and northern plains for Thursday. Temperatures behind the front will range from the lower 60s in the west, to the middle 60s elsewhere.
Due to this clearing, radiational cooling will cause temperatures to drop, and overnight lows look to be in the upper 20s to mid 30s range, with the eastern Ozarks seeing the lower end of that scale. With these below freezing temperatures as well as the current trends in cloud cover throughout the night, decided to extend the freeze warning further west up to the KS/MO border to account for the further potential for a freeze. For the counties in southeast Kansas, temperatures look to stay above freezing with heavier cloud cover, inhibiting any freeze potential. Thursday shows slightly higher temperatures throughout the day, with highs in the low to mid 50s for the entire CWA.
Some clearing is possible in the far northwest late tonight, and with temperatures expected to be near freezing, frost will be likely.
225 PM CDT Wed Nov 3 2021 Minimal impacts are expected in the short term, as ridging continues to influence our overall weather pattern. Temperatures will continue to warm through the end of the week, as westerly winds advect warmer air into the area. Thursday will be slightly different, but warmer.
Later tonight after 06z there may be a chance for freezing fog to occur at the TAF sites, but confidence is very low to mention at this time.
142 PM CDT Wed Nov 3 2021 High pressure will continue to keep our weather quiet for a few more days. This will result in highs returning to the lower 50s as early as Thursday, and reaching the 60s later this weekend. The center of the high pressure remains just west of the CWA, and should drift through our area tonight. However, with a southwest flow setting up behind the high, more of the CWA should be able to reach around 50 degrees for Thursday's highs. Temperatures rise into the 60s this weekend as upper level ridging amplifies across the central U. Winds to remain light and variable, but will become more sustained from the south/southwest on Thursday as high pressure slides to the east.
Low to mid-level warm advection will already commence during the day as the pesky upper trough slowly begins to lose its grip across the Upper Midwest. Southerly flow will develop in earnest on Thursday as the ridge axis passes to the east with a bump in high temps into the 40s to low 50s for most areas.
Temperatures are forecast to be approximately 10-15 degrees warmer today with highs in the 50s across the Tri-State area. On Thursday, the upper ridge will continue east over the High Plains as a weak upper trough moves over the Pacific NW.
Wood (Issued 330 AM CDT Wed Nov 3 2021) Today through Thursday Night: A sprawling area of high pressure has moved overhead early this morning. Quiet weather is expected through Thursday as high pressure moves very little.
238 PM CDT Wed Nov 3 2021 Sprawling high pressure stretches from the Great Plains across the eastern half of the CONUS this afternoon. This high is sitting beneath a long wave trough aloft which will take the rest of the week to drift off the East Coast. There were even some freezing temperatures reported in protected areas across the eastern Ozarks this morning.
Seems like the bulk of the clouds will linger for much of the overnight for all but our extreme north in OK and SW AR with some patchy frost possible there as high pressure arrives with fair skies.
Highs are expected to be in the lower 50s in the Delta, which will struggle to warm with clouds and rain, to the upper 60s(maybe even 70) in the south where clouds and rain will affect this region much later. The main upper trough axis will move across the area this evening into the overnight hours and this will drive a cold front south through the area. Thursday night may still see readings drop into the mid/upper 30s along/north of the Highway 82 corridor where skies will be clear with diminishing wind.
417 PM EDT Wed Nov 3 2021 Latest surface analysis places an expansive 1033mb high pressure over much of the eastern US while satellite shows mid and high cloud streaming over the OH Valley. Over the next 24 hours, the upper level trough axis will continue to push east resulting in amplified meridional flow with winds aloft going from westerly to northwesterly. Mostly clear skies with light NNE winds will continue Thursday as the high centers itself over the OH Valley. Expect afternoon highs to limp into the low 50s.
High pressure ridging will continue to hold over the forecast area for the remainder of today into Thursday. The front and associated upper level disturbance will flatten the ridge, shifting its axis east over the northern high plains.
Tranquil conditions will continue tonight into Thursday as weak ridging aloft moves out of the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains. Although a quickly developing lee side trough in eastern Colorado will return a southwesterly flow to western Kanas by late this evening, winds are expected to remain fairly light. Combined with clearing skies across much of the area, expect lows down into the mid/upper 20s(F) in west central Kansas and portions of southwest Kansas with the lower/mid 30s(F) more likely toward south central Kansas. High temperatures will continue a warming trend Thursday as prevailing southerlies pull warmer air into the high plains with H85 temperatures ranging from around 10C in central Kansas to a little above 12C out near the Colorado border.
Broad troughing remains over central/eastern Canada which extends into Great Lakes keeps southeast Michigan under the influence of cyclonic flow through tomorrow. Persisting cold airmass offers high temperatures this afternoon in the low to mid 40s. The cold thermal trough is slow to exit to the east with the mid/upper level trough. Temperatures at 850 mb on Thursday will be very similar to today, so temperatures will also be similar or a degree or two warmer for afternoon high temperatures.
That trough is projected to slide across the OH Valley tonight but a paucity in overall moisture should alleviate any measurable pcpn potential. Temperatures are expected to climb to near, and slightly above average by the start of the new week as a low-amplitude upper trough develops ovr the wrn CONUS and initiates warm advection for points ewd.
Little in the way of appreciable weather over the next several days as the area remains under the influence of a sprawling area of high pressure over the eastern U. A return to southerly flow will nudge temperatures up a few degrees from yesterday, but still in the lower to middle 40s which is slightly below average.
A weak trough is currently pushing across the FA. Currently, the trough axis is pushing through southern Aroostook and northern Penobscot counties, bringing mostly cloudy skies and isolated to scattered rain showers. Showers will push off the coast tonight and skies will clear behind the trough. As winds diminish into the overnight hours, temperatures will plummet to what may become the coldest night of the season so far, with low temperatures falling into the upper 20s Downeast and the lower 20s across the north. High pressure will most of the region on Thursday. High temperatures will be similar to today, with highs around 40 degrees across the north and slightly cooler Downeast with highs into the mid-40s.
An upper level ridge axis will try to nudge in from the west today and tonight as it starts to deamplify. Highs will be a touch warmer than yesterday, ranging from the lower 40s over the Turtle Mountains to the lower 50s across the southwest. Lows tonight will mainly be in the 20s, but a couple areas southwest and south central may see lows in the lower 30s.
An upper level ridge moves in tomorrow warming temps into the 40s.
The temperature forecast Thursday leans toward the warmer guidance blend plus bias correction. The low temperature forecast tonight and Thursday night are modest and lean on the short term model blend which was close to the 50th percentile of the NBM. A low level jet develops Thursday night ahead of a cold front.