Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
237 PM MDT MON AUG 10 2015 CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH/NORTHWEST ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOW 60S EXCEPT MID 60S IN THE TRIBUNE AND LEOTI AREAS.
CONVECTION IS LIMITED DUE TO THE DRIER AIR AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE WESTERN PRECIPICE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RETROGRADE A TAD OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL TROF SINKS SLIGTLY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. WET WEEK AHEAD AS ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL THROUGH CNY/NEPA GENERALLY BY 18Z TUESDAY.
351 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING.
134 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE NEAR EASTERN MISSOURI WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OHIO AND NW PA ON MONDAY REACHING EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THE NORTHLAND HAD LIGHT NW FLOW WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN NW ONTARIO AND NW MINNESOTA APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THE FREEZING LEVELS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ARROWHEAD ARE RELATIVELY LOW. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S IN THE EAST TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE WEST. A WEAK UPPER S/W WILL RIDE ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS EWD THE RIDGE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE REGION.
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TOMORROW THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR THE PAST WEEK. BUT WITH THE RIDGE MOVING OFF EASTWARD.
614 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH TUESDAY.
THOUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD SLIGHTLY AS UPPER HIGH STARTS ITS NORTHWARD EXPANSION. UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHWARD WED-FRI. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER REMAINING ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. TRAPPED MOISTURE UNDER THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE RECYCLED. RIDGE FLATTENS SLIGHTLY FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.
238 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2015 PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON COOLER THAN EXPECTED. COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TOMORROW. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES WESTWARD. WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING SOME OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK TOWARD THE EAST.
SNELSON /ISSUED 632 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2015/ DECENT SHOT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA.
The upper-levels will feature an amplifying ridge axis over the Rockies, and a broad (but amplifying) trough over the eastern CONUS.
A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL IL/MO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD TN. /ISSUED 237 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2015/ UPPER RIDGE HAS RETROGRADED LAST 24 HOURS WITH MID STATE NOW IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM SAINT LOUIS DOWN INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. HAVE THE HIGHER POPS THIS MORNING NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS DUE TO SOUTH BOUND COMPLEX. MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE MID STATE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH HIGHER POPS THIS AFTERNOON EASTERN AREAS AND PLATEAU.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN STATES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHERN TEXAS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE AND INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN TEXAS.
134 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2015 The pesky upper ridge centered over the Southern Plains will begin to slowly slide west over the next few days. There will not be much in terms of rain chances tonight except for a few isolated storms across portions of Eddy and Lea County and the higher terrain. We will see temperatures drop a few degrees as the ridge begins to slide a little further west and a cold front moves south across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico by midweek.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND LATE THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TIMES THE BEST OF THE LOW LEVEL JET THRU THE AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 00Z AND 09Z WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE STEADIEST OF THE SHOWERS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF LATE AT NIGHT. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS A PRETTY QUICK PROGRESSION ACROSS THE STATE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE. AND BY AFTERNOON THEY DEVELOP A NOT INSIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CAPE AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVERHEAD. HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.
A COLD FRONT WAS SAGGING DOWN INTO OK/AR WITH MUCH COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE STILL IS PARKED OVER TX. THIS UPPER RIDGE SHOULD SLOWLY SLIDE WESTWARD TUESDAY BUT STRENGTHEN AS IT DOES SO WITH 500 HEIGHTS RISING FROM TODAYS 592 TO 594DM.
430 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2015 MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NWRN GULF. WITH A DEVELOPING TROF/FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOTED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY/SRN AR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE RIDGING ALOFT NOW CENTERED OVER NRN TX. AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE RIDGE IS HELPING FIRE OFF A BIT OF CONVECTION TO OUR E/NE WHICH WILL DROP SWWD INTO THE ERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA. POPS RETURN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE WEAK FRONT TO OUR NORTH SAGS SWD INTO THE AREA AND GETS A BOOST FROM THE MID/UPPER RIDGE DRIFTING FARTHER WWD AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROUNDING IT DROPPING INTO THE AREA.
218 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH A COLD FRONT TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. CURRENT MESOSCALE ANALYSIS DISPLAYS A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH OVER MICHIGAN AND THAT FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND HELP SUSTAIN THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EASTWARD TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH TO BRING NORTHWEST FLOW AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
546 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
A weak cold front extending from Lubbock eastward along the Red River valley this afternoon is expected to move slowly south into West Central Texas Tuesday. Models still slowly slide the center of the upper high toward the west this week. The ECMWF actually brings the upper high center over the four corners area by this weekend; the GFS doesn't push it that far west.
WILL REFRAIN FROM ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT AS IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FLASH FLOODING REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. AN UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE AREA ON TUE WITH MONSOON MSTR AGAIN ALLOWING FOR SCT PCPN ACRS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON WED THE UPR RIDGE CENTER MOVES FROM WRN TX TO ALONG THE SOUTH CENTRAL CO BORDER. THU AND FRI THE UPR RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVR THE AREA BUT IT LOOKS SLIGHTLY DRIER. AND UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE THRU THE NRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS STATES.
350 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT MID LEVELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
331 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2015 PANHANDLE WITH RIDGE INTO THE PLAINS OF CANADA. CLOSED LOW OFF PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND TROUGH MOVING THROUGH GREAT LAKES. ISSUED AT 330 PM| CDT MON AUG 10 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. AND WITH NO REAL DEFINED WAVES CRESTING THE RIDGE AND SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHERE AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSTM MAY PUSH EAST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST. THIS WILL DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
Theta-e ridge has shifted NW, and convective chances will be slim at any terminals. /issued 134 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2015/ The pesky upper ridge centered over the Southern Plains will begin to slowly slide west over the next few days. There will not be much in terms of rain chances tonight except for a few isolated storms across portions of Eddy and Lea County and the higher terrain. We will see temperatures drop a few degrees as the ridge begins to slide a little further west and a cold front moves south across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico by midweek.
426 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WITH COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOW 80S. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND RISING TEMPERATURES.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE EBBING AND FLOWING OF THE POSITION AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THAT RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE A BIT TO THE WEST AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK. CAUSING A DEEPER TROUGH TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN STATES DOWNSTREAM FROM IT. IT WILL ALSO (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) FORCE THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS DOWN TO THE COAST. THE MODELS SHOW HINT THAT THE EASTERN STATES TROUGH MAY ACTUALLY CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
TIMING THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. /ISSUED 300 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2015/ THE CENTER OF THE SOUTHERN CONTINENTAL UPPER HIGH.
Areas south and west of a Joplin to Cassville line may see temps in the lower 90s before the boundary shifts south of the area. This, along with cooler high pressure will bring a needed cooling trend for the week with highs in the 80s and overnight lows falling into the lower to middle 60s.
200 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2015 TEMPS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS NRN OK/AR. BRINGING ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION AND COOLER/DRIER AIR. WE SHOULD SEE COOLER TEMPS FOR POST-FRONTAL AREAS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE RETREATS WWD IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING E COAST UPPER TROF. WITH TEMPS AND MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEE OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO. AS A PIECE OF THE E COAST UPPER TROF BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN JET. AND BEGINS TO RETROGRADE SWWD AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. AS THE UPPER TROF APPROACHES DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
215 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2015 THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR PRE-FRONTAL SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THEN ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE TROUGH MOVES IN OVER NIGHT BUT WITH ONLY ISO/SCT COVERAGE EXPECTED. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING BUT CLEARING IS SLOW ON TUESDAY.
WITH SOME RELIEF ON THE WAY IN THE FORM OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TOMORROW. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S UNDER CLOUD COVER. AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN U. THERE WONT BE A SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE. THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY MEAN THAT ALL OF TOMORROWS ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
555 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH A COLD FRONT TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. CURRENT MESOSCALE ANALYSIS DISPLAYS A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH OVER MICHIGAN AND THAT FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND HELP SUSTAIN THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EASTWARD TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH TO BRING NORTHWEST FLOW AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
234 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN UPPER OHIO VALLEY MOVES NORTHEAST TONIGHT. DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THRU LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
WILL KEEP ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT OFF THE TREASURE COAST AS THE LOW LVL FLOW VEERS TO SSW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THE LOW LVL RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE KEYS ON TUESDAY WITH LOW LVL WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF THE RIDGE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S. THE ERN SEABOARD L/W TROUGH WILL DIG INTO N FL THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH DEEP MOISTURE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA JUST SOUTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL. UPPER RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS WILL VERY SLOWLY RETROGRADE TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY THUS ALLOWING FOR A SUBTLE INCREASE IN LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
412 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH TUESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH DRAPED FROM THE DESERT SW TO THE E U. MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE WATERS WHERE THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
FEW BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW REMAIN ACROSS REGION WITH CHANCE POPS NOW CONFINED TO I-80 CORRIDOR AND THE RIDGES WITH A SMALL ACCUMULATION IN ANY BETTER SNOW SHOWERS. RIDGING AND BACKING FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY END LIGHT SNOW SHOWER CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND SE ALONG THE RIDGES BY MIDNIGHT.
1040 PM CST SUN JAN 10 2016 LEADING EDGE OF A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED VERY CLOSE TO GREGORY COUNTY AT THIS TIME. WITH MILD TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING NOTED IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL NOT MAKE ANY EASTWARD PROGRESS TONIGHT STAYING GENERALLY BOTTLED UP IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE INTO OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES BY VERY LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE IN THE LOWEST REACHES OF THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH ABOUT 925-900MB.
SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Deep longwave upper TROF continues to dominate eastern North America early this morning with a NW flow over our region. The cold Canadian airmass that is giving us our current bout of cold winter temps has pushed into the lower MS valley, giving our region SW flow and slowly rising temps as a result. Preferred the higher MAV MOS temps today for maxes, with decent morning sunshine most areas, a running start to temps thanks to them rising currently, and ideal W-SW surface winds thru the day.
Following highs only in the lower to mid 50s Monday afternoon, temperatures will likely fall below freezing everywhere but the immediate coast by Tuesday morning. Therefore, have leaned towards the warmer raw guidance, with min temps expected to reach the upper 20s to around 30. Tuesday night low are expected to remain a few degrees above freezing.
BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE MS RIVER AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING ARCTIC COLD FRONT WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 90 KT 500 HPA JET STREAK.
UPPER TROF EXTENDS FROM KANSAS TO ARIZONA THIS MORNING.
248 AM CST MON JAN 11 2016 Early this morning, water vapor imagery showed a weak embedded wave within the broad mid-level trough skimming southeastward across Nebraska. At the surface, the region was wedged between high pressure over the southeastern U. and low pressure across the Dakotas and Nebraska, resulting in southwesterly winds early this morning. As a result, most locations saw temperatures increasing early this morning into the low/mid 20s.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
447 AM EST MON JAN 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK.
MAIN HEADLINE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE ISOLATED POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF BEXAR AND INTO PORTIONS OF COASTAL PLAINS WHERE LESS CLOUDS RESIDE. BOERNE IS CURRENTLY JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK AND COASTAL PLAIN LOCATIONS WITHIN THE FREEZE WARNING ARE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND HEADING THAT DIRECTION. THE FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 4AM THROUGH 8AM AND TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AT FREEZING FOR VERY LONG. AMPLE SUN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND A NICE WARM UP IS EXPECTED INTO THE LOW 60S.
A COLD AND DRY NNW SURFACE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH MIDDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM A RIDGE CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. TRENDED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE WHICH ADVERTISED MIN TEMPS JUST ABOVE HARD FREEZE CRITERIA INLAND ACROSS SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY. LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK WESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY AND WILL RANGE IN THE 50S UNDER PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY CALM OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVERHEAD.
Added patchy freezing fog to the forecast for much of SW KS through 6 AM. Still, winds will be fairly light and skies will remain mostly clear allowing for temperatures to drop down into the teens(F) for lows across west central Kansas to the lower 20s(F) in south central Kansas. The prevailing westerly downslope flow will continue into Monday helping to erode the colder air mass across the high plains.
OTHERWISE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS AT SITES ABOVE THE FOG/STRATUS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED RIGHT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST KEEPING THE AREA IN A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WITH INVERSION CONDITIONS. AREAS ALONG THE SNAKE RIVER WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF DENSE FOG. BUT CURRENT FORECAST HAS IT BEING OF LITTLE IMPACT TO THE AREA AS THE RIDGE PUSHES IT TO OUR NORTH.
UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE CLOUDS TO SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO FALL TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE IDAHO PANHANDLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
330 AM CST MON JAN 11 2016 High pressure ridge will continue to moderate as it slides east and south today. which means a warmer start to the work week.
AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PASS INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO SOUTH FL TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
348 AM CST MON JAN 11 2016 OPEN AND SHEARING TROUGH IN NW FLOW WAS BISECTING THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE FANFARE TO NOTE. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS DEPARTS LATER THIS MORNING. A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR SOME FREEZING FOG AND STRATUS IN OUR W-NW COUNTIES THROUGH MID-MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT THE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE AND TRY TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
THEN DRY AND WARMER TO START THE NEW WEEK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 11/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA AND INTO SRN NEVADA. MODELS INDICATED THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED VORT LOBE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER ARIZONA RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN LESS POPULATED/OPEN AREAS BUT THE RECENT WARMER TEMPS FOLLOWED BY A FREEZE HAS FORMED A CRUST ON THE SNOW.
HIGH PRESSURE AND VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL RETURN AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. A FAIRLY QUIET EVENING IS IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO UTAH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. BEING LIMITED TO NEAR UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE HIGH TERRAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROVIDE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT IS ALIGNED FROM THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TO ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX.
250 AM MST MON JAN 11 2016 A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT SWEEPS THROUGH NEBRASKA AND KANSAS TODAY WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED.
FEW BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW REMAIN ACROSS REGION WITH CHANCE POPS NOW CONFINED TO I-80 CORRIDOR AND THE RIDGES WITH A SMALL ACCUMULATION IN ANY BETTER SNOW SHOWERS. RIDGING AND BACKING FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY END LIGHT SNOW SHOWER CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND SE ALONG THE RIDGES BY MIDNIGHT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE SOME REAMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES.
1257 AM EST MON JAN 11 2016 A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION INTO LATE WEEK.
446 AM EST MON JAN 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SWING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S INLAND AND IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AT THE COAST. AND EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S.
HOWEVER WEAK MOIST AIR ADVECTION ABOARD SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN SOME STRATUS AND PATCHY FREEZING FOG ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PANHANDLES. LINGERING DEEPER SNOW COVER ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S TODAY.
A WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD AND FOG EVENT ESPECIALLY OUT IN THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND CHINLE VALLEY CAN BE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ESPECIALLY WHEN MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION THAT TYPICALLY FORMS.
247 AM EST MON JAN 11 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.