Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
547 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022 A slow moving mid/upper trough over the Middle Mississippi Valley area continues to drift eastward away from the region. Breezy southerly winds will return to the area today as low pressure deepens across the high plains of eastern Colorado and far western Kansas. Seasonable highs are expected to return with most areas topping out in the low to mid 80s, although those in Russell and Barton counties could see highs top out in the upper 80s.
(Issued 346 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022) Today and Tonight: Low pressure over southern Lake Michigan is bringing light showers to far southeast Wisconsin. These will end this morning as the low moves to Lake Erie today. Clouds will stick around as the surface and upper low slowly move eastward. This evening upper level ridging pushes in which should clear skies somewhat.
531 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase ahead of a cold front today.
A closed upper low will continue to lift away from the area today with seasonably cool and dry air remaining in place across the region. Deep northwest flow will bring a steady supply of low precipitable water air with values approaching a half an inch, and an anomalously cool low level thermal trough with H850 T as much as 5C below normal.
402 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022 Light winds early today, but will be on the increase with high pressure departing, and low pressure deepening to the west. Storms will move rapidly eastwards as they ride atop this weak upper ridge thanks to 40-50kts of westerly mid level steering flow, weakening as they migrate into an area of lower MUCAPE despite the presence of a 40-50kt south/southwest oriented low level jet which will also feature a sharp convergent nose over the CWA. Saturday for the most part should be dry, with slight ridging aloft. West of the area, a deepening western CONUS trough generates a southwest flow regime.
620 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022 (Today through Saturday) Mid and upper level ridging builds over our area today and Saturday. Lower level thermal ridge strengthens with slightly warmer temperatures expected, however, record highs for today the 27th and Saturday the 28th appear safe.
Afternoon highs will be slightly warmer than yesterday with highs in the mid 80s (north/east) to low/mid 90s (elsewhere).
520 AM MDT Fri May 27 2022 Current surface map places weak lee side trough over Montana/Wyoming with upper level ridge shifting into the Northern Plains. Upper ridge flattens today, allowing weak impulse to cross the area this afternoon/early evening. Best chance of thunderstorms will be along cold front late this afternoon/early evening with narrow axis of buoyancy. Upper trough carves out over the western CONUS this weekend with southwest to northeast low level baroclinic zone across the central Dakotas. Impulses eject from the trough resulting in several rounds of thunderstorms.
An upper level low over the Wabash Valley early this morning will progress east into Ohio by the end of the day. Moisture wrapping around the back side of this low will maintain the chance for showers mainly east of the Mississippi River today. As the low continues its departure and high pressure builds in from the west, a gradual clearing trend is anticipated tonight. An upper level ridge is progged to build east from the Plains on Saturday, then amplify over the eastern U.
/issued 418 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022/ SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): Closed 500 mb low pressure centered roughly over the Illinois/Indiana border will steadily move just off the coast of New England during the period. This will allow 500 mb high pressure centered roughly over north-central Mexico to build more northeast and become increasingly more dominant over the BRO CWFA. Temperatures will prevail in the above normal territory courtesy of the mid-level ridge.
Saturday, the high pressure axis moves to the east, and the return flow begins. The ridge begins to break down at 500 mb as well, and a 500 mb jet streak moves into the northern part of the forecast area during the late afternoon.
The primary low level trough on the nw fringe of an upper low will pivot through from nw to se late this afternoon into this evening with scattered to numerous showers. Also cannot rule out a funnel cloud or two under the upper low along/east of I-69. Mid level subsidence and height rises will allow for low level ridging to settle in on Saturday with seasonable temps, light winds and plentiful sunshine.
243 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022 Dry high pressure will continue to build into the region during the holiday weekend.
/Issued 1108 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022/ /This Afternoon through Saturday Night/ Mid level ridging will generally dominate the Southern Plains through Saturday with temperatures steadily warming through the weekend and near zero chance for rainfall. While ridging will remain in place, southwest flow aloft will increase tomorrow afternoon over West Texas.
(This afternoon through Saturday Night) Just a few showers have popped up across northern portions of Middle Tennessee this afternoon as the upper low that's keeping the clouds over us, slowly pulls off to the northeast.
This will only fuel showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder later this afternoon as pockets of DCVA pivot through on the east side of the mid level cyclone.
1158 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022 (Today through Saturday) Mid and upper level ridging builds over our area today and Saturday. Lower level thermal ridge strengthens with slightly warmer temperatures expected, however, record highs for today the 27th and Saturday the 28th appear safe.
220 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022 (Issued 220 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022) Tonight through Saturday night: Cloud cover continues to decrease on back side of departed low pressure system. A weak ridge takes hold overnight into early Saturday. The ridge shifts east Saturday and we start to get into a waa pattern.
A subtle disturbance in the flow was moving through the central Rockies toward the High Plains this afternoon. Upper level west to southwest flow increases over the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains on Saturday as an upper level trough digs into the western states. Areas to the east of the dryline across central and portions of southwest Kansas will be not be quite as hot given the higher dewpoints and southerly flow while areas to the west will see the hotter temperatures with additional downslope compressional heating.
Current radar and satellite observations show the cold front and associated showers continuing eastward across the forecast area. Will continue to monitor for any flooding concerns as the activity moves into far NE TN given the lower hourly FFG. KS Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 82 60 87 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 80 58 86 63 / 10 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 57 80 58 86 63 / 10 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 76 55 85 59 / 30 0 0 0 0.
1237 PM MDT Fri May 27 2022 Water vapor shows upper ridge axis over the Northern Plains with upper trof working into the western CONUS, and distinct wave over the Northern Rockies. At the surface, broad trof over eastern MT/eastern WY with best pressure falls over western SD. Stronger wave arrives Saturday, with better moisture in place near/east of the Black Hills given inverted trof extending north into far western SD. Temps should be wide ranging from west to east given inverted trof.
/NEW/ /This Afternoon through Saturday Night/ Mid level ridging will generally dominate the Southern Plains through Saturday with temperatures steadily warming through the weekend and near zero chance for rainfall. While ridging will remain in place, southwest flow aloft will increase tomorrow afternoon over West Texas.
We could see temps rise a couple of degrees this afternoon across the area, but expect the highs to be reached fairly soon, if they haven't been achieved already. The one exception would be the interior west, where marine-influenced air wouldn't come into account; temps could reach the low 70s over there. P at a 70% chance or higher of temperatures above 90F, records are generally in the low 90s).
An upper low over the Midwest moves off to the northeast, leaving an weak upper trough over the Southeast. Behind a cold front that is moving over the forecast area today into tonight, a drier airmass continues to move south over the Southeast. Looking at the High Risk of Rip currents currently in effect, swell reported by Buoy 42012 remains high enough coming onshore to warrant extended the High Rip Risk through tonight.
Expect cloudy conditions expected today with highs in the lower 70s, with lows tonight in the upper 50s. Clouds will begin to break up by tomorrow blowing for temperatures to increase to the lower 80s. An upper level ridge will start to build into the area by Saturday and will continue to build throughout the weekend.
(Tonight) As the low pressure system that brought us rain yesterday continues to drift slowly eastward across the Ohio River Valley, we continue to stay socked in with high clouds from the cloud bank on the southwest side of the Low. With clearing skies overnight, calming winds, and high pressure building over the area, expect areas of fog to develop, especially in the usual spots along the Tennessee River and in rural areas.
114 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022 An open, low-amplitude trough in the mid-level is centered over the Upper Great Lakes this morning on the backside of the low pressure that moved through over the last two days. An area of subsidence behind the eastward moving trough can be seen on infrared satellite imagery this morning and is creating clearing skies over the far western Lake Superior and northwestern WI. P at a 70% chance or higher of temperatures above 90F, records are generally in the low 90s).
/This Afternoon/ All remains quiet on the weather front this morning, as sfc ridging remains anchored over the Srn Plains, which has resulted in NW sfc winds over the region. This will maintain comfortable RH's this afternoon, although a weak cu field has developed over portions of Cntrl and extreme SE AR and bordering parishes of NE LA, around the SW periphery of the closed low over IN/KY, which will continue drifting E into the OH Valley this afternoon. This cu should continue to mix out this afternoon as the effects of the attendent trough diminishes, thus maintaining sunny conditions over the region.
Seasonable and Dry Weather for the remainder of the Memorial Day Latest radar loop was showing scattered to widespread showers over central Indiana as upper low was seen vividly spinning over east central Indiana and west central Ohio. This feature will move across Ohio and Pennsylvania tonight as ridging builds in from the Mississippi Valley. Ridging and the dry column and winds returning to the southwest, temperatures will rebound Saturday to near seasonable under mostly sunny skies with low level thermals and late May sun supporting afternoon highs in the middle and upper 70s. Overnight lows Saturday night will be in the middle 50s to around 60 under mostly clear skies as the ridge hangs around.
This is thanks to low-amplitude upper ridging over the Rockies in between the departing upper low and a trough offshore of the Pacific Northwest. Adding these two factors together, we should see highs from the mid 80s in eastern KS to the low 90s in north central areas.
Central Alabama finally has a chance to dry out today, as the cold front has just about moved east of us into Georgia early this afternoon. Very pleasant conditions are in store for the rest of the afternoon today with upper 50s dewpoints now being observed in most locations behind the cold front. As the upper level low moves off to our north today, we'll see a few more clouds across the northern counties as opposed to the south, along with some pressure gradient breezy conditions at the surface. Those winds will taper off overnight tonight with cooler overnight lows mainly in the mid to upper 50s with the drier air in place. We'll see the current air mass modify, and result in temperatures warming nicely into the low and mid 80s.
In short, it will be a cool and wet holiday weekend, or at least cooler and wetter than normal. Winds will increase tonight as a warm front moves through the area. South winds may reach gale force Saturday as a cold front moves through with very steep seas, with the strongest winds and heaviest seas north of Cape Blanco (10-13 feet at 9-10 seconds).
137 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022 Northern tier upper low continues to move eastward tonight then off New England Saturday but leaves residual trough in the E Gulf.
Discussion: Current radar and satellite imagery depict continued scattered showers across the eastern half of the forecast area late this afternoon in association with a weak surface cold front draped across the region. Temperatures will generally be near normal for this time of the year, perhaps a few degrees cooler due to the aforementioned cloud cover.
A trough of low pressure digging over the western states will bring gusty winds during the holiday weekend along with high fire danger. Another afternoon with above-average temperatures expected today, about 3-5 degrees cooler than yesterday. With these cooler temperatures will be gusty winds that will result in high fire danger each afternoon.
(This evening through Saturday) The main feature affecting our weather through tomorrow afternoon is a 500mb ridge moving out of northern Mexico and into central Texas. This should result in a mild night ahead, with lows in the low to mid 70s. For tomorrow, the upper-level ridge axis will become centered right over south central Texas. 850mb temperatures will be in the 22-25 degree range, which is much warmer than Friday, and should translate to temperatures at or above 100 degrees area-wide.
Cold front continues to push south as the upper low moves east with focus for showers and a few thunderstorms shifting southeast by this evening.
An upper low over the Midwest moves off to the northeast, leaving an weak upper trough over the Southeast. Behind a cold front that is moving over the forecast area today, a drier airmass continues to move over the Southeast. Looking at the High Risk of Rip currents currently in effect, swell reported by Buoy 42012 continues to decrease in amplitude and period. At this time, am planning on allow the High Risk of Rip Currents expire at 6pm, but may extend a period or two depending upon data from Buoy 41012 that comes in this afternoon. Easterly winds 5 to 10 knots this afternoon will shift to northerly around 5 knots this afternoon into tonight as a weak cold front moves south across the area, stalling along the Gulf coast by Saturday morning.
Some thin cirrus may spread ESE into portions of SE OK/SW AR/extreme NE TX/N LA after daybreak Saturday, ahead of upper level ridging that will build E into the region. /This Afternoon/ All remains quiet on the weather front this morning, as sfc ridging remains anchored over the Srn Plains, which has resulted in NW sfc winds over the region. This will maintain comfortable RH's this afternoon, although a weak cu field has developed over portions of Cntrl and extreme SE AR and bordering parishes of NE LA, around the SW periphery of the closed low over IN/KY, which will continue drifting E into the OH Valley this afternoon. This cu should continue to mix out this afternoon as the effects of the attendant trough diminishes, thus maintaining sunny conditions over the region.
Mid-level ridging building in across South Texas should maintain hot and dry conditions through the rest of the afternoon and then again on Saturday. Onshore flow will gradually introduce moisture the boundary layer through Saturday, with winds to strengthen slightly more Saturday as an area of low pressure develops across the High Plains.
Current radar and satellite observations show the cold front and associated showers continuing eastward across the forecast area. Will continue to monitor for any flooding concerns as the activity moves into far NE TN given the lower hourly FFG. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 77 59 82 60 87 / 20 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 76 59 80 58 86 / 50 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 75 57 80 58 86 / 50 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 74 56 76 55 85 / 70 30 0 0 0 NC.
304 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022 A few isolated showers/sprinkles continue to rotate around the backside of the upper level low parked near the IN/OH border this afternoon. This is where the highest chance for appreciable rain exists through late afternoon. As the upper low departs further northeast, skies will begin to clear this evening and overnight. A warming trend will commence this weekend as upper level ridging begins to build in.
The afternoon sfc analysis indicates sfc ridging anchored over Ern OK into ECntrl TX, with the NW winds maintaining the dry air mass already in place. Winds will decouple shortly after sunset as the ridge center moves over the area, setting the stage for another night of good radiational cooling and another comfortable night with cool conditions. Thus, RH's will begin to gradually increase as well, with the approach of upper ridging extending from W TX N into the Wrn High Plains this afternoon eventually shifting E into the Srn Plains/Lower MS Valley this weekend resulting in a continued increase in max temps each day.
/TW/ A closed upper low will continue to lift away from the area today with seasonably cool and dry air remaining in place across the region. Deep northwest flow will bring a steady supply of low precipitable water air with values approaching a half an inch, and an anomalously cool low level thermal trough with H850 T as much as 5C below normal.
157 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022 A trough of low pressure will slowly move across the area resulting in periods of showers and some thunderstorms through tonight.
(This evening through Saturday evening) A return to early summertime, above-average temperatures is forecast for tomorrow as the low-level thermal ridge expands eastward into the Southern Plains.
1216 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022 (Today and tonight) The gradual warming trend continues today, with 850 mb temperatures set to climb a little more as the upper level ridge takes hols.
1127 AM MDT Fri May 27 2022 Current surface map places weak lee side trough over Montana/Wyoming with upper level ridge shifting into the Northern Plains. Upper ridge flattens today, allowing weak impulse to cross the area this afternoon/early evening. Best chance of thunderstorms will be along cold front late this afternoon/early evening with narrow axis of buoyancy. Upper trough carves out over the western CONUS this weekend with southwest to northeast low level baroclinic zone across the central Dakotas. Impulses eject from the trough resulting in several rounds of thunderstorms.
Conditions then turn clearer, breezier, and much warmer this weekend.
We could see temps rise a couple of degrees this afternoon across the area, but expect the highs to be reached fairly soon, if they haven't been achieved already. The one exception would be the interior west, where marine-influenced air wouldn't come into account; temps could reach the low 70s over there.
247 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022 Clearing quickly move through the western CWA this morning, as dewpoints in the 40s mixed through the low level moisture on northwest winds. Alas, for the eastern 2/3, north winds cyclonically flowing around the upper low to our east have anchored that clearing line from just west of Dubuque to Mt Pleasant through 2 PM. Some shallow ground fog is possible, especially in Illinois where the low level moisture is unlikely to mix out before sunset. In any case, Saturday morning, winds will switch to the south, and we'll quickly transition to a breezy warmer day.
(This afternoon through Saturday night) An upper level trough extends from the Great Lakes region to the Gulf Coast with West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under upper ridging. The upper ridge shifts further east on Saturday. Thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening across eastern portions of the Permian Basin and the Lower Trans Pecos.
Temperatures today will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than yesterday, and will hover around seasonal normals.
As the upper level ridge moves east and a broad trough moves into the western United States, southwesterly flow aloft develops over Nebraska.
Afternoon temperatures expected in the lower 90s across SE TX, around 90 across SW LA, and upper 80s elsewhere. High pressure will be building into the forecast area today.
(Saturday through Friday) Upper level ridging will prevail for the early part of weekend, leading to a return of above normal temperatures.
1230 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022 Key Messages: - Near normal today with warmer than normal conditions for Memorial Day weekend. The closed upper low that has meandered its way across the region is now centered over southern IL and will continue to slowly track east. The low-level cloud cover associated with the upper low is splitting the forecast area from north to south as of 02Z with the clearing line from roughly western Harrison County to eastern Bates County. Upper-level ridging will build across the middle of the country to start the holiday weekend. Winds will increase from the south as high pressure settles into the Southeast and lee troughing develops in the High Plains. With increasing heights and thicknesses due to the upper ridge and the increasing south flow, temperatures as well as humidity will be on the increase.
Temperatures are ranging from the upper 80s to the lower 90s as of 2 PM and expected to go up a few more degrees. Saturday's highs are expected to be a bit warmer than today with temperatures ranging from mid to upper 90s across most locations to 102 degrees along the Rio Grande.
Winds will remain our of the south to southwest on the breezy side tonight through tomorrow thanks to a surface lee trough. The upper ridge just to our west will move overhead tomorrow afternoon leading to a much warmer day with highs near or over 100 areawide. The warmer temps will bring low RH values back to the region tomorrow afternoon with afternoon humidities ranging from the single digits to the mid teens. This will primarily affect areas that saw the lowest rainfall amounts (less than one inch) earlier this week. Mid level flow will back to the southwest tomorrow afternoon as the upper ridge becomes suppressed a bit.
1214 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022 A slow moving mid/upper trough over the Middle Mississippi Valley area continues to drift eastward away from the region. Breezy southerly winds will return to the area today as low pressure deepens across the high plains of eastern Colorado and far western Kansas. Seasonable highs are expected to return with most areas topping out in the low to mid 80s, although those in Russell and Barton counties could see highs top out in the upper 80s.
326 PM MDT Fri May 27 2022 A upper level ridge axis extended north-south across the north and central High Plains early this afternoon. Saturday, moderate southwest flow aloft downstream from a Pacific upper level trough over the Northwest CONUS will maintain stronger winds especially west of I-25 with gusts between 40 and 50 mph. High temperatures Saturday will be 5-10 degrees cooler, with 70s and 80s.
624 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022 For the 28/00Z TAF update, VFR conditions will prevail once again with lingering northwesterly winds becoming light and variable as high pressure shifts east across the airspace. The afternoon sfc analysis indicates sfc ridging anchored over Ern OK into ECntrl TX, with the NW winds maintaining the dry air mass already in place. Winds will decouple shortly after sunset as the ridge center moves over the area, setting the stage for another night of good radiational cooling and another comfortable night with cool conditions. Thus, RH's will begin to gradually increase as well, with the approach of upper ridging extending from W TX N into the Wrn High Plains this afternoon eventually shifting E into the Srn Plains/Lower MS Valley this weekend resulting in a continued increase in max temps each day.