Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Lows in the lower to mid 70s look on track. The low to mid level ridge will lift northward toward Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast allowing for lower convective coverage from KMLB-KSUA Sunday afternoon and higher SHRA/TSRA CHCs in the KLEE-KDAB corridor where daytime heating will act on the deepest moisture in the low level SW to WSW flow.
939 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Most of the threat for severe weather has now passed, but leftover convection continues to form over the CWA as upper level trof moves across far Northern Plains, and southern Canadian prairies. Storm development is starting out west this afternoon along a cold front as large scale lift and cooling from an upper level low pressure trough was approaching from the west. Therefore, expect this to all move east with cooler and drier high pressure following in behind tonight into Sunday.
Expect clear or mostly clear conditions overnight as high pressure is in place. Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 96 74 94 / 0 20 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 94 71 93 / 0 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 70 95 72 93 / 0 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 91 67 90 / 0 10 10 10.
808 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2019 A line of showers and a few thunderstorms will continue moving east over the high plateaus of northwest CO this evening. Flow aloft will gradually shift to the southwest and high pressure will become positioned over west TX which should allow moisture to start rotating north into the area again at the end of the week.
High pressure aloft will expand north from the southern Rockies beginning on Sunday. This high pressure will bring hot temperatures and dry conditions to the area through midweek.
855 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 High pressure at the surface continuing to promote tranquil weather conditions across the Tennessee Valley region. NBM and European guidance are almost on the extreme end of the envelope, bringing high temperatures to almost 100 degrees with dewpoints in the lower 60s for many areas.
Expect clearing skies and very cool temperatures tonight as high pressure settles over the Northern High Plains. Also decreased low temperatures by a few degrees, closer to the lower end of model consensus. Behind the cold front, clearing skies and decreasing winds will allow temperatures to rapidly fall.
Look for upper ridging to build into the region and amplify into adjacent southern Canada late this weekend into the second half of the week. Look for large scale subsidence associated with the ridge to lead to dry conditions during this period as well as temperatures returning to near or above normal readings. Ensemble 500mb heights show that a breakdown of the ridge is likely to occur for the area toward the second half of the week.
/issued 243 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019/ (Tonight and Sunday) Very hot temperatures will persist across West Central Texas through Sunday as the upper ridge remains centered over the region.
540 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2019 A line of showers and a few thunderstorms will continue moving east over the high plateaus of northwest CO this evening. Flow aloft will gradually shift to the southwest and high pressure will become positioned over west TX which should allow moisture to start rotating north into the area again at the end of the week.
304 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Low amplitude upper level troughing continues across the eastern half of the CONUS. The upper level trough sharpens a bit along the southeast coast with the Bermuda Ridge building back in over Florida and the dissipating front still over Georgia. Temperatures will be near to slight above climo overnight with lows in the low to mid 70s.
Conditions will be rather uncomfortable today with the high dewpoints, and surface temperatures will be dependent upon how much convection does develop. With somewhat less instability from near PIT and south, and weak ridging, continued with lower/isolated POPs in this area, with slightly higher POPs/scattered coverage north.
High pressure at the surface continuing to promote tranquil weather conditions across the Tennessee Valley region. NBM and European guidance are almost on the extreme end of the envelope, bringing high temperatures to almost 100 degrees with dewpoints in the lower 60s for many areas. Clouds and showers should be limited enough to allow high temperatures to reach the low-mid 90s again.
337 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Strong upper ridge will continue to drive the weather pattern for the region. Today this ridge will be centered over TX and NM producing another day of very hot temperatures.
A secondary weak cold front is progged to drop south across Kansas and position roughly along the turnpike corridor by late afternoon. The upper ridge will build in over the central Plains on Monday with warming aloft likely squelching convective potential or limiting to isolated activity.
The wider band of convection will continue as the nose of the low level jet continues to provide forcing for ascent through the I-70 corridor for a few more hours as instability weakens. The NAM/WRF is showing the surface cold front pushing through the DDC forecast area by mid afternoon with light northeast winds and quite a temperature gradient - maybe as cool as the 70s in the northern counties to upper 90s along the Oklahoma line. Nam/Wrf temperature fields area indicating pleasant 60s for he overnights across mush of west central Knasas with still warmer air residing over the south central Kansas counties with lows still in the mid 70s tonight. 500 mb ridging quickly becomes reestablished across the southern High Plains into Kansas early in the week.
1233 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Most of the threat for severe weather has now passed, but leftover convection continues to form over the CWA as upper level trof moves across far Northern Plains, and southern Canadian prairies. Storm development is starting out west this afternoon along a cold front as large scale lift and cooling from an upper level low pressure trough was approaching from the west. Therefore, expect this to all move east with cooler and drier high pressure following in behind tonight into Sunday. Upstream ridging will follow with a deepening eastern CONUS trough.
After a lull in the rain chances this evening, scattered storms will again be possible overnight as a slow-moving cold front approaches from the northwest.
The low level jet is expected to crank up this evening, bringing an increase in mid and high clouds to the region. Things do get a little more interesting Sunday afternoon as a cold front moves across the region. If we could break out tomorrow afternoon from the low clouds, bufkit soundings indicated one to two thousand J/KG of CAPE, 0-6 km shear values around 30 knots, and total totals around 50. Leaned toward the warmer MET guidance for highs on Sunday.
A fairly quiet day is ahead for the region as high pressure moves into the area. High temperatures will rise into the lower to middle 70s.
A cold front, that'll push into KS this morning, should force drive thunderstorms out of most areas this morning with SE KS the only exception as the front would decelerate & likely stall. Mon-Tue Night: There are 2 concerns: 1) Heat indices that'll reach 105-110 across all of SC & SE KS both Mon & Tue afternoons and 2) a cold front that'll sag S/SE toward the NE/KS border Tue night. Weak low pressure that'll remain centered over most of CO would cause weak southerly flow across most of KS.
Updated at 222 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019 The upper level pattern going into Monday will feature a large ridge building into the southern Plains and modest zonal flow over the upper Midwest into New England.
This lift has already begun to aid in thunderstorm development over the higher terrain of central NM. The upper ridge will continue to build tomorrow into Monday which will in turn allow temps to continue to warm. Models continue to differ on handling of the upper ridge. The ECMWF and GFS both "split" the ridge, but the GFS is more aggressive with splitting it in turn creating a weakness in the center of the ridge. The ECMWF keeps the upper ridge more in tact.
No sensible changes in the weather await South Texas today as a tall upper high holds close to the region. Satellite imagery and 00Z regional RAOB data indicated the center of this high was between Corpus Christi and Brownsville complete with modest PWAT deficits. As this high shifts west of the region tonight and especially tomorrow, a slow influx of PWATs will ensue on the fringes of the ridge.
Area will remain on the eastern periphery of mid and upper level high limiting capping and allowing for a daily chance of late morning and afternoon thunderstorms. High pressure continuing to ridge west across the northern Gulf will maintain a light to occasional moderate onshore flow.
The cold front is slowly moving into the area, with a few locations already with north winds. The cold front is expected to continue to move through the area and by day break should be most of the way through the forecast area. Temperatures are expected to be quite a bit cooler today. Some of the models suggest even cooler than in the forecast. If there are a few more clouds, the temperatures could be just a little cooler. The south winds increase the low level moisture and dew points raise back up. Should be able to avoid the heat index concern since temperatures will be a little cooler than earlier thought.
250 AM MDT Sun Aug 18 2019 With the departure of the low pressure trough and rain showers from yesterday, a broad ridge of high pressure will more easily move into the region from the southwest over the next several days. Models are beginning to hint at some small-scale details or variations in this high pressure ridge from time to time through the forecast period. Today, a warmer northwest flow aloft will turn more from the west by tonight. Monday, the flow aloft will remain from the west, but enough of the broad ridge of high pressure will be in place to allow high temperatures to creep up to the lower 90s for many locations.
Temperatures were from the mid 70s to low 80s across the area with dewpoints in the lower 70s.
A cold front has pushed across much of the CWA. Upper ridging will build into the western CONUS Sunday, bringing warmer and drier weather Sunday and Monday.
High temperatures will stay on the cooler side however and west winds will get a little gusty by afternoon.
Otherwise, upper ridge will keep most of the area dry early this week. Models then develop eastern trough, retrograde upper ridge, putting area in better northwest flow by mid/late week.
244 AM MDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Dry and hot conditions will continue today and Monday across the western slope with no thunderstorm activity expected as the upper level trough responsible has moved far enough east into the northern Great Lakes to lose its influence over the area. High pressure will build back over the region and much of the west with a westerly flow today shifting to southwest by this evening. Temperatures will remain above normal during the afternoon with perhaps some cooler nights due to the presence of drier air and clear skies, leading to efficient radiational cooling.
The other forecast concern for the night will be temperatures, especially across the southwest, as a cool high pressure settles in. Previous update lowered tonight's low temperatures near the low end of the guidance envelope which continues to seem reasonable. Expect clearing skies and very cool temperatures tonight as high pressure settles over the Northern High Plains. Also decreased low temperatures by a few degrees, closer to the lower end of model consensus. Behind the cold front, clearing skies and decreasing winds will allow temperatures to rapidly fall.
Subtropical Ridge strengthens over our area today. Subtropical Ridge axis lifts north of our area on Monday. The thermal ridge pushes away slightly enabling high temperatures to ease off a degree or two from the last few days.
Highs today will recover into the lower to mid 80s south but only reach the mid 70s over the north. Tonight with high pressure over the region, some fog may develop toward morning; especially in river valley areas as overnight lows dip into the mid 50s north to the lower to mid 60s south.
The multi-day period of great flying weather continues during this forecast period with some high pressure and no major boundaries around to focus development of thunderstorms.
A little cooler over the plains Sunday then very warm conditions return Monday.
1137 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2019 A line of showers and a few thunderstorms will continue moving east over the high plateaus of northwest CO this evening. Flow aloft will gradually shift to the southwest and high pressure will become positioned over west TX which should allow moisture to start rotating north into the area again at the end of the week.
The wider band of convection will continue as the nose of the low level jet continues to provide forcing for ascent through the I-70 corridor for a few more hours as instability weakens. The NAM/WRF is showing the surface cold front pushing through the DDC forecast area by mid afternoon with light northeast winds and quite a temperature gradient - maybe as cool as the 70s in the northern counties to upper 90s along the Oklahoma line. Nam/Wrf temperature fields area indicating pleasant 60s for he overnights across mush of west central Knasas with still warmer air residing over the south central Kansas counties with lows still in the mid 70s tonight.
While ceilings should be more consistent at SAT/SSF, AUS should see only periodic drops to MVFR so have handled the lower cigs with a tempo group at AUS. Elevated heat indices remain the short-term concern with most areas seeing values approaching the lower end of Heat Advisory conditions.
Highs today will be cooler than the past several days, ranging from 75-77 across the east to near 80 far west and southwest.
155 AM MDT Sun Aug 18 2019 The northern plains is beneath an upper trough, as a ridge builds over the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, high pressure is sliding into the area. Monday will be even warmer and drier, with widespread 90s for highs.
Semi-flat upper flow early today will evolve into a weak trough just to the east tonight. as closed upper low moves into eastern Canada. Weak upper trough does move well east by then and upper ridge does strengthen, but LL moisture more abundant for isolated storms storms to pop in peak afternoon heating. on Tue, upper ridge retrogrades and LL moisture is a bit more plentiful. EURO fairly dry while GFS brings an active warm front back north.
Also adjusted the diurnal curve of morning temperatures as 9 am readings are a couple of degrees warmer than forecast.
323 AM PDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Heat will build inland again through the middle part of the week as high pressure aloft builds over the Southwest.
Today Through Monday Night Ridge of high pressure nudging into Arkansas from the southern Plains will remain the dominant feature in the near term. That said, while it will be plenty hot, there will be at least some opportunity for precipitation as we are on the eastern periphery of the ridge. The heat of Monday will resemble today, although it may be a touch warmer.
A heat advisory will remain in effect today as temperatures reach the 101 to 107 degree range with heat index values running a degree or two warmer. It is safe to say that the 100 degree or warmer streak will add another day to the total.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 97 74 96 72 / 10 10 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 95 71 94 71 / 0 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 96 71 94 71 / 0 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 92 66 91 67 / 10 10 20 10.
634 AM MDT Sun Aug 18 2019 ** Updated for fog in aviation discussion below ** With the departure of the low pressure trough and rain showers from yesterday, a broad ridge of high pressure will more easily move into the region from the southwest over the next several days. Models are beginning to hint at some small-scale details or variations in this high pressure ridge from time to time through the forecast period. Today, a warmer northwest flow aloft will turn more from the west by tonight. Monday, the flow aloft will remain from the west, but enough of the broad ridge of high pressure will be in place to allow high temperatures to creep up to the lower 90s for many locations.
417 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Trough boundary can be seen fairly well in satellite imagery along the east coast through FL into the gulf south of near Apalachee Bay. Some of these thunderstorms that are forming along the trough axis toward the west may develop over the coastal waters this morning. There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall that is aligned mainly where the trough axis is located. Southerly onshore flow will dominate through the next 7 days as surface 1019 MB high pressure sits over the northeastern and northcentral Gulf.
A cold front, that'll push into KS this morning, should force drive thunderstorms out of most areas this morning with SE KS the only exception as the front would decelerate & likely stall. Mon-Tue Night: There are 2 concerns: 1) Heat indices that'll reach 105-110 across all of SC & SE KS both Mon & Tue afternoons and 2) a cold front that'll sag S/SE toward the NE/KS border Tue night. Weak low pressure that'll remain centered over most of CO would cause weak southerly flow across most of KS. A cold front is expected to move into the area this afternoon, flipping winds around to the north across central KS.
950 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Drier air over south Florida evident from the 12Z Miami sounding will begin to work its way into the Treasure Coast today as subtropical ridge axis shifts slowly northward toward the Cape. Subtropical ridge axis slightly north of Lake Okeechobee will lift slowly northward toward the Cape this evening.
The returning humidity will also result in heat index values a little warmer than yesterday if showers can hold off into the afternoon, but with convection expected to develop around Noon, the chance to reach heat advisory criteria (105 heat index) will be limited by increasing cloud cover and possible rain cooled outflow.
A quasi-stationary front system resides over north- central Georgia is slowly becoming less discernible and diffuse with two low pressure areas noted at the surface. With the western periphery of the Bermuda ridge building across the coastal waters winds will remain at or below 15 knots for most of the forecast period. The exception is a few nocturnal wind surges across the back edge of the ridge during the early morning hours by mid week may briefly hit SCEC.
So far, they are staying just to the west of this cwa but may briefly cross into central SD early this morning before dissipating under building high pressure. However, as the high exits to the east return flow will set up. Southerly winds will increase Monday afternoon to 15 ot 25 mph, ushering up warmer air.
While there may be some cumulus build ups on the higher terrain along the North Carolina border and possibly some of the mountains in Southwest Virginia, any showers or thunderstorms that form are not expected to impact any of the terminals.
Seasonable temperatures over the interior will give way to warmer conditions during the second half of the upcoming work week. An upper-level trough is forecast to develop over the Gulf of Alaska and NERN PAC during the next couple of days.
Other than that, the warm and dry pattern will continue for the next several days as the predominant feature is a ridge of high pressure over our area.
Temperatures will average slightly cooler than normal through Monday.
511 AM MDT Sun Aug 18 2019 The northern plains is beneath an upper trough, as a ridge builds over the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, high pressure is sliding into the area. Monday will be even warmer and drier, with widespread 90s for highs.
Latest HRRR guidance is showing a quieter day across the region today with the highest chances of showers and storms north of Tampa Bay. Western Atlantic high pressure ridge weakens and the axis lifts over the central Gulf waters today and holds in place through mid week with fairly light winds and seas.
528 AM MDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Dry and hot conditions will continue today and Monday across the western slope with no thunderstorm activity expected as the upper level trough responsible has moved far enough east into the northern Great Lakes to lose its influence over the area. High pressure will build back over the region and much of the west with a westerly flow today shifting to southwest by this evening. Temperatures will remain above normal during the afternoon with perhaps some cooler nights due to the presence of drier air and clear skies, leading to efficient radiational cooling.
RAP shows this forcing moving east early this morning and slowly weakening as the low level jet veers. Will keep high change/likely PoPs for showers and thunderstorms going during the morning into the afternoon hours to cover this forcing before the upper trough moves east of the area. A cold front will move south into the area late tonight and become stalled over the area on Monday.
626 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Early morning satellite imagery shows a bit of a flat pattern in place across the center of the Nation, with a synoptic level trough axis swinging into the Northern Plains, focusing another round of stormy activity across the Central Plains with the help of the nocturnal jet. Otherwise, expectations are that this activity will continue to spread southeast slowly as the cold pool behind these storms continues to interact with the low level jet through sunrise, with storms eventually congealing into a broad area of storms across central and southern Missouri later this morning.
High pressure aloft will expand north from the southern Rockies beginning today. This high pressure will bring above normal temperatures and dry conditions to the area early in the week.
334 AM MDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Lingering mid and high clouds will depart or dissipate today as a broad ridge of high pressure builds into the Northern Rockies. This ridge is forecast to remain in place and strengthen through mid-week, allowing for dry weather and a warming trend.
/issued 337 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019/ Strong upper ridge will continue to drive the weather pattern for the region. Today this ridge will be centered over TX and NM producing another day of very hot temperatures.
Temperatures will be much warmer today than yesterday and the rest of the forecast remains on track. -Mottice With the departure of the low pressure trough and rain showers from yesterday, a broad ridge of high pressure will more easily move into the region from the southwest over the next several days. Models are beginning to hint at some small-scale details or variations in this high pressure ridge from time to time through the forecast period. Today, a warmer northwest flow aloft will turn more from the west by tonight. Monday, the flow aloft will remain from the west, but enough of the broad ridge of high pressure will be in place to allow high temperatures to creep up to the lower 90s for many locations.
These clouds will move off to the east by this evening, after which, high pressure will dominate with generally clear skies and warming temperatures.
This will allow southerly winds to bring a warmer/moist airmass back into the region overnight tonight and into the day Monday. As warmer air returns to the region tomorrow, temperatures will climb into the low to mid 80s with dewpoints in the 60s spreading northward through the day. The continued eastward advection of a mid level thermal ridge will help build a capping inversion over the region that will maintain dry weather for the day Monday.
1130 AM MDT Sun Aug 18 2019 The northern plains is beneath an upper trough, as a ridge builds over the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, high pressure is sliding into the area. Monday will be even warmer and drier, with widespread 90s for highs.
311 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 18Z surface data had the cold front from KLSE to KOMA with a pre- frontal trof from northeast Illinois back through KOTM.
Temperatures on Monday will be a couple of degrees cooler than today's expected highs, with afternoon readings between 100 and 103 degrees and heat indices as high as 105 degrees.