Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cooler, drier airmass moves over the forecast area behind the front, dropping above normal temperatures topping out in the mid to upper 80s this afternoon to high temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 northwest of I-65, low to mid 80s south on Saturday. With the colder air behind the front moving over the forecast area later tonight, temperatures are expected to be a bit warmer than last night.
111 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Isolated light showers today will be followed by dry conditions much cooler temperatures through the weekend. Isolated to scattered light showers / sprinkles will be possible into the evening in the wake of a cold front.
Currently the Plains region is under northwesterly flow aloft with an upper level trough currently situated across the Upper Great Lakes region. South of this trough, an upper level low is positioned over the Baja California area. At the surface, high pressure is centered over the Dakotas extending south into portions of the state of Nebraska. Given the amount of clearing and light winds expected, continued to trend temperatures down towards MAV and MET guidance which resulted in overnight subfreezing temperatures falling into the upper 20s to low 30s across much of the area.
(This afternoon through Saturday) The cold front is near the I-20 corridor but hardly noticeable other than a slight breeze. This will drop relative humidity back down into the 25 to 30 percent range tomorrow afternoon with highs stuck in the 70s for most areas except our southeast which may reach the lower 80s.
1203 PM MDT Fri Oct 7 2022 The low clouds have been much more persistent than expected this morning and look to last through the afternoon into the evening across the lower elevations. Across the rest of the area, a cold front was moving across early this morning. Thus can't rule out a chance of showers and a few storms by mid to late aftn over the higher terrain, Meanwhile, not sure about high temps across nern CO. For now have kept highs in the upper 40's to mid 50's, however, they may need to be adjusted lower later this morning if the lower clouds stay in place. A weak upper low will be positioned over Baja California on Saturday and is expected to slowly weaken while remaining stationary.
257 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 A strong, but moisture-starved cold front will cross the region tonight. Canadian high pressure will follow and extend from the mid MS Valley to the mid-Atlantic through the weekend. The pre- frontal trough in place across central NC will migrate eastward ahead of the attendant strong but moisture starved cold front that will move into the area during the evening and overnight hours. Otherwise, it will remain dry with strong post-frontal cold dry air advection during the second half of the night and into Saturday as Canadian high pressure builds into the area.
Dewpoints this afternoon are in the 30 to 34 range, and with a clear sky potential tonight and light winds as the high pressure moves through our southern CWA, I'll not change the messaging at all related to the freeze warning. The colder 25% of the NBM shows lows in the upper 20s to low 30s are very possible, if not a tad cooler, while other deterministic models and the upper 50% of the NBM spread is warmer than 35. Saturday, with increasing west winds as the high sinks south, we'll easily recover to the upper 50s to near 60 in the afternoon.
As the high continues to migrate toward the south and east, brisk conditions will slightly alleviate as winds calm down through the night. These calm winds coupled with mostly clear skies will allow temperature to sink into the 30s with some areas north of US-36 dipping below freezing with high 20s lows possible in some spots. Fortunately, the cold temperatures depart as the high pressure moves to the south and east turning atmospheric flow back southerly. Models have converged more on a longwave trough sweeping across the northern CONUS dropping a cold front across the Central Plains. Most models show the trough deepening as it progresses eastward bringing greater chances for rainfall to areas east of our CWA - of course.
Dry and crisp weekend on tap then high pressure maintains quiet weather into the work week. With the cold front through the area to the east, look for northwesterly flow, colder temperatures and dry air filtering in. Temperatures will drop down into the low to mid 30's for southeastern Ohio, northeastern Kentucky and for the WV northeast mountains promoting frost development overnight and into Saturday morning. The lowlands will stay just above the frost threshold promoting a little bit of patchy valley fog. For Saturday, any lingering clouds will clear out by the late afternoon from west to east and temperatures will only rise to the mid to upper 50's, slightly cooler in the mountains with the ongoing effect of cooler northwesterly flow.
1159 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 (Today and tonight) At the upper levels, a broad trough will continue to dig in across the eastern US, while a closed upper low remains in place over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, the weak frontal boundary that stalled across the area yesterday is fizzling out, while another cold front is moving southward into Oklahoma at this time.
The center of the high will drift southward overnight, allowing for light southwest winds to develop. With the slightly warmer air mass in place this weekend, current forecast lows Saturday night are forecast to remain above freezing.
(Through tonight ) Reinforcing cold front continues to make slow but steady progress southward while a corridor of light showers has remained near the western periphery of the forecast area much of the day.
Persistent high pressure has been over the west coast states for the past week, resulting in dry weather with afternoon temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above normal for much of the region. This ridge will be stubborn to release it's grasp on the region's weather and unseasonably hot afternoon temperatures and dry conditions are expected to continue. Conditions along the coast and into the Umpqua Basin will be cooler thanks to the marine layer influence. The sensible weather will remain largely unchanged through the weekend, however, there will be a slight shift in the upper level pattern today as an area of energy rides over the top of the ridge and moves southward. This will weaken the ridge some and also push the ridge axis westward and offshore.
627 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 (This evening through Saturday) Much cooler conditions are in place behind the cold front this afternoon, with some areas under clouds and precipitation still sitting in the mid to upper 50s currently, 20-30 degrees cooler than this time yesterday. This translates to highs in the low to mid 50s for portions of western Oklahoma, with 60s across much of the rest of the area and low 70s across far southern portions of Oklahoma and western north Texas.
It was enough to keep high temperatures very cool today, looks like they should only reach the upper 40s and lower 50s for the lower elevations. There looks to be enough instability and moisture over the high terrain another round of scattered showers with a few storms, bringing light precipitation and few impacts.
Dewpoint temperatures tonight will be in the lower 50s tonight.
Meanwhile, an increasing gradient from a low pressure passing north of the forecast area has created gusty westerly winds over affecting the Bayfield Peninsula and throughout the Apostle Islands. High pressure is firmly located over Minnesota. Meanwhile an area of low pressure will cross Hudson Bay causing the pressure gradient to increase and thus a response in the wind field giving breezy westerly winds tonight into Saturday. Clouds have been a little slow to clear today, so kept temperatures a bit warmer, but latest satellite trends suggest that that may have been the wrong decision as the cloud field is quickly eroding from west to east.
Some mid to high level clouds are currently streaming across the western portion of our area, but will spread east this evening with the approach of a cold front. However, the passage the aforementioned cold front later tonight into Saturday morning will result in increased northerly winds at around 10 knots or so for most locations through the day. A cooler, drier airmass moves over the forecast area behind the front, dropping above normal temperatures topping out in the mid to upper 80s this afternoon to high temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 northwest of I-65, low to mid 80s south on Saturday. With the colder air behind the front moving over the forecast area later tonight, temperatures are expected to be a bit warmer than last night.
1009 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Some minor changes were made this evening, largely associated with the passage of the cold front. Otherwise, notably cooler temperatures to the north indicate that overall low temperatures are still expected to remain the same as drier air and clearer conditions advance towards the region. Cold front passage occurs later today, but will be moisture starved so no rainfall expected. Some guidance does try to spit out a hundredth or two of QPF in some of the higher terrain of southwest Virginia and the east TN mountains, but this seems optimistic to say the least. Dry and cooler through the weekend, with frost potential Saturday night, followed by a warming trend.
942 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Dry, cool conditions will continue through the weekend in the wake of the cold front.
With high pressure in control, clear skies and light winds will lead to another overnight with temperatures in the 20s to low 30s. The center of the high will drift southward overnight, allowing for light southwest winds to develop. With the slightly warmer air mass in place this weekend, current forecast lows Saturday night are forecast to remain above freezing.
A weak upper low will approach from the north through Saturday as the upper ridge rebuilds off the coast. The low will bring increasing mid and high level clouds, but not enough moisture for precipitation.
621 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 (This afternoon through Saturday) The cold front is near the I-20 corridor but hardly noticeable other than a slight breeze. This will drop relative humidity back down into the 25 to 30 percent range tomorrow afternoon with highs stuck in the 70s for most areas except our southeast which may reach the lower 80s.
Clear conditions will allow overnight lows to bottom out in the low to mid 60s.
630 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 With the dry cold front expected to move over our area later tonight, broad isentrophic ascent will help maintain some mid-high level cloudiness as we head into the overnight period. By Saturday morning, the cold front is forecasted to push south out of our area leaving behind a drier and cooler airmass. This airmass will allow for afternoon temperatures to be roughly ten degrees cooler then the previous day and peak around the upper 70s with areas south of I-20 reaching the low 80s.
544 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 (This afternoon through Saturday Night) Cold front continues moving across the midstate this afternoon, and while difficult to discern on surface obs and radar, appears to be roughly from Linden to Murfreesboro to Livingston. Much cooler and drier air along with gusty north winds are moving in behind the front, and lows are expected to drop significantly from today's highs and reach the upper 30s to mid 40s by sunrise Saturday morning. Frost is not expected in our area tonight due to surface winds staying up and dewpoints remaining above freezing, but cannot rule out some isolated frost near the KY border.
626 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 (This evening through Saturday) A persistent, quasi-stationary upper low centered over the Sea of Cortez will continue to feed deep moisture eastward across the forecast area from southwestern New Mexico. Cloud cover is likely to keep temperatures in check tomorrow, although with the warmer start will again forsake the low end of MOS guidance and trend toward the warmer MAV/MOS and blend init.
901 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 (Issued 900 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022) Skies are gradually clearing this evening as high pressure and drier air moves into southern WI. There is still some concern for slightly elevated winds later tonight as the pressure gradient strengthens when the high slips to our our southwest.
58/rose Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Saturday) The cold front is near the I-20 corridor but hardly noticeable other than a slight breeze. This will drop relative humidity back down into the 25 to 30 percent range tomorrow afternoon with highs stuck in the 70s for most areas except our southeast which may reach the lower 80s.
736 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Isolated light showers today will be followed by dry conditions much cooler temperatures through the weekend. Light showers / sprinkles will continue in the wake of the cold front overnight, mainly north of PIT.
730 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 High pressure moves in for the weekend bringing mostly sunny skies and colder temperatures. A slight warm up is expected for the first half of the work week as the high pressure moves off to the east. Skies will become mainly clear tonight as subsidence arrives in the circulation ahead of high pressure. This will allow temperatures to drop to around freezing, necessitating a freeze warning for northwest counties and a frost advisory south and east. Cooler temperatures are in store for the day, with highs reaching the mid to upper 50s. Saturday night, the center of the high pressure sits just to our south and winds decrease overnight, while clear skies dominate. Have continued the Freeze Watch for southern counties, where influence of the high is strongest and winds are nearly calm.
A cold front is currently draped over the forecast area and will continue to push south overnight.
621 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022 (Through tonight ) Reinforcing cold front continues to make slow but steady progress southward while a corridor of light showers has remained near the western periphery of the forecast area much of the day.
759 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Dry and seasonably warm weather with highs in the middle 80s today will give way to a dry cold front crossing the region tonight.
711 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 A strong, but moisture-starved cold front will cross the region tonight. Canadian high pressure will follow and extend from the mid MS Valley to the mid-Atlantic through the weekend. The pre- frontal trough in place across central NC will migrate eastward ahead of the attendant strong but moisture starved cold front that will move into the area during the evening and overnight hours. Otherwise, it will remain dry with strong post-frontal cold dry air advection during the second half of the night and into Saturday as Canadian high pressure builds into the area.
931 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 High pressure moves in for the weekend bringing mostly sunny skies and colder temperatures. A slight warm up is expected for the first half of the work week as the high pressure moves off to the east. Skies will become mainly clear to partly cloudy tonight as subsidence arrives in the circulation ahead of high pressure. This will allow temperatures to drop to around freezing, necessitating a freeze warning for northwest counties and a frost advisory south and east. Cooler temperatures are in store for the day, with highs reaching the mid to upper 50s. Saturday night, the center of the high pressure sits just to our south and winds decrease overnight, while clear skies dominate. Have continued the Freeze Watch for southern counties, where influence of the high is strongest and winds are nearly calm.
This is due to the combination of a weakening ridge across northern Florida and lower pressure in the Caribbean Sea. The lower level Atlantic ridge lingers across South Florida and associated lower to mid level dry air remains across our area. However, a subtle low level inverted trough is expected to approach the Keys from the east. The combination of a weak ridge across northern Florida and lower pressure in the Caribbean Sea will result in moderate to fresh northeast to easterly breezes on Keys waters.
857 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 Cold front will move south and east of the area overnight. Cold high pressure will follow for the weekend.
Thus, after a warm afternoon with highs in the u70s-l80s, strengthening low-level cold advection through persistent northerly flow around 10 MPH will drive temperatures down into the 40s for most of the area by sunrise, with lows ranging from the lower 40s in our TN counties to the upper 40s across southern Cullman County.
The upper low situated over Baja California continues to advect moisture into the area, and storms will once again be likely this afternoon. Increasing cloud cover through peak heating will prevent temperatures from breaking out of the 60s and 70s for much of the western half of the CWA, but the far eastern Basin may reach the low 80s. An upper trough will be traversing across the Great Lakes region today, and an associated backdoor cold front will reach our region by early Saturday morning. The low over Baja will remain relatively stationary, continuing to advect moisture into the area.
/EC/ With the dry cold front expected to move over our area later tonight, broad isentropic ascent will help maintain some mid-high level cloudiness as we head into the overnight period. By Saturday morning, the cold front is forecasted to push south out of our area leaving behind a drier and cooler airmass. This airmass will allow for afternoon temperatures to be roughly ten degrees cooler then the previous day and peak around the upper 70s with areas south of I-20 reaching the low 80s.
However, a dry cold front, currently over central Alabama, is expected to traverse the local area later tonight into Saturday morning. A dry cold front progresses across the area tonight and high pressure begins to settle in Saturday and Sunday, ushering in drier and cooler air to the region. Highs Saturday will be a bit cooler, topping out in the middle to upper 70's inland and lower 80's elsewhere. Saturday night will be much cooler, with temperatures over interior southeast MS and interior southwest AL dipping into the middle to upper 40's. Further south, lows will be in the lower 50's, perhaps middle 50's along the immediate coast. Sundays highs are a bit cooler again, with highs generally in the middle to upper 70's. A few spots in south- central AL may make it to the lower 80's.
Temps will be warmer than yesterday with highs in the low 60s for the valley and west with upper 50s holding in the MN lakes and forests. Highs Sunday will be cooler than today with values held back some on northerly winds and lingering clouds, upper 50s for most areas though the southern valley may crack 60.
Meanwhile, an increasing gradient from a low pressure passing north of the forecast area has created gusty westerly winds over affecting the Bayfield Peninsula and throughout the Apostle Islands. High pressure is firmly located over Minnesota. Meanwhile an area of low pressure will cross Hudson Bay causing the pressure gradient to increase and thus a response in the wind field giving breezy westerly winds tonight into Saturday. Clouds have been a little slow to clear today, so kept temperatures a bit warmer, but latest satellite trends suggest that that may have been the wrong decision as the cloud field is quickly eroding from west to east. High pressure returns afterwards with a longer wave trough moving in mid week which will give a much better shot at accumulating precipitation while also warming the region up â perhaps back into the 70s.
Increasing moisture is occurring along the northern periphery of the low, with a slight chance of thunderstorms for this afternoon across the mountains and eastern valleys. The closed low will persist across northwestern Mexico through this weekend, with continued chances for showers and thunderstorms. The highest moisture surge looks to occur on Sunday, when ECMWF ensemble members shows PWAT values of 1.
Emphasize that the risk is small and brief and should be mainly along the low lying areas and river valleys.
A persistent ridge of high pressure will keep the Northern Rockies warmer than normal through the weekend with light and variable winds.
A Freeze Watch has also been issued for eastern Tucker county where overnight lows are forecast to dip below freezing.
Expect shallow, bkn strato cu across the NW mtns and Laurels, while sct pancakus cu should be found across the Central Ridge and Valley region of the state. A NW wind will add a Fall chill, making it feel even a few degrees cooler. Fcst lows Saturday night are in the 30s everywhere except right along the lower Susq R. An active breeze (4-8KT in general) should preclude frost formation and freezing temps in most areas, but patchy frost is possible if the wind goes calm.
(Today and tonight) Key Message: Colder temperatures this weekend, with near freezing temperatures and widespread frost expected early Sunday morning. Biggest weather story over the weekend will be the cooler temperatures, as colder air funnels in from the northwest.
The area's typically cool areas will likely see freezing temperatures.
Near the surface, high pressure stretches from western Kansas northeast into the Upper Midwest.
232 AM EDT Sat Oct 8 2022 A dry cold front will move offshore early today. Canadian high pressure will follow and extend from the mid MS Valley to the Mid- Atlantic through the weekend with much cooler air. The dry cold front was moving south through north-central NC and will move offshore before daybreak. CAA today will lead to much cooler temperatures. The latest satellite data indicated cirrus/cirrostratus that were associated with the upper jet from the lower MS Valley NE across NC. Expect partly sunny this morning, then becoming sunny this afternoon as the high level moisture shifts south. Highs today will be only in the mid 60s north ranging into the lower 70s south. Thicknesses and statistical guidance support a modest increase in temperatures as the high builds overhead.
This is due to a tighter pressure gradient overhead with low pressure in the Hudson Bay area and high pressure over Missouri. Tonight winds will be lighter, but not calm which will keep temperatures a little warmer with lows in the upper 30s to 40s. Sunday the low over the Hudson Bay area will bring a front through the area.
Clear skies and calm winds overnight will lead to substantial radiational cooling with widespread lows in the low to mid 30s. Expanded the Frost Advisory to include valley locations as well, since temperatures may drop below freezing. Quiet weather is expected this weekend as the main upper-level trough axis pushes further off to the east, leaving the region in drier, northwesterly flow. As the trough moves east, this will allow slightly warmer 700 mb air to filter in. Temperatures on Saturday are expected to be about 10 degrees warmer than today, so high temperatures will be in the 60s across the CWA. Sunday will be even warmer, with some low 70s returning to parts of the CWA! Precipitation chances look almost non-existent over the weekend as dry air and clear skies look to dominate.
The high temperature forecast is warmer than the 50th NBM percent and close to the guidance blend today and Sunday. The short blend suggested warmer lows tonight than the guidance blend which is consistent with a warm air advection pattern.
252 AM CDT Sat Oct 8 2022 High pressure was centered over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. At the surface, high pressure will slide along the Iowa and Missouri border this morning and then into the middle Ohio River Valley. As high pressure passes to the east, winds turn to the south with speeds 5 MPH or less.