Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WV imagery this afternoon depicts deep troughing over the wrn U. An associated upper low center is to the W/NW of the Four Corners region, and a baroclinic leaf structure downstream is suggestive of continued cyclogenesis over the srn Rockies this afternoon. However, very cold low-to-midlevel air atop the hills will promote the development of very steep lapse rates in the lowest 1-2 km AGL, which will likely lead to at least a few snow showers.
218 PM MST Mon Feb 3 2020 WV imagery this afternoon depicts deep troughing over the wrn U. An associated upper low center is to the W/NW of the Four Corners region, and a baroclinic leaf structure downstream is suggestive of continued cyclogenesis over the srn Rockies this afternoon. However, very cold low-to-midlevel air atop the hills will promote the development of very steep lapse rates in the lowest 1-2 km AGL, which will likely lead to at least a few snow showers.
High pressure over the area with northwest flow will allow temps to fall into the single digits below zero tonight. As high pressure continues to build into the area, these clear conditions will persist through Tuesday night.
Latest regional radar imagery is showing the shower activity beginning to increase in coverage back along the OH river as well as the lower and mid MS valleys.
Well to our northwest, a warm front from the Mid-Atlantic across the OH River Valley intersects a frontal low over eastern MO. A more established southerly flow has set-up between the two pressure systems which will support a warmer and moistening environment along the central Gulf coast.
A cold front is just entering northwest North Dakota at this time. High pressure will slide in overnight from southern Saskatchewan, promoting light winds and clearing skies. Some brief light snow will be possible across far west tonight as a secondary weak cold front passes through, so introduced a larger area of slight chance to chance precipitation chances here. Tuesday is shaping up to be a beautiful day with a mostly sunny sky and expansive high pressure at the surface. Highs will remain on the cool side, ranging from the lower teens above zero east to the 20s across the west.
800 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2020 High pressure over the FL peninsula gifted east central FL with another clear and crisp day. A ridge will remain over the forecast area overnight with winds becoming light and variable.
Ahead of the trough, weak lift could bring some very small chances of drizzle this afternoon in far southeast nebraska. Temperature have also increased to just above freezing today in the southeast, so any winter impacts are near zero.
536 PM CST Mon Feb 3 2020 Surface ridging associated with high pressure over the Canadian Prairies continues to build into the Upper Mississippi Valley this afternoon. A band of clouds tied to a weak cold front dropping through is progressively swallowing up the forecast area. All this has led to a cooler day across the region with highs in the 30s to around 40.
Lowered temperatures a bit tonight/tomorrow with high pressure and light winds expected to be centered over ND. A cold front is just entering northwest North Dakota at this time. High pressure will slide in overnight from southern Saskatchewan, promoting light winds and clearing skies. Some brief light snow will be possible across far west tonight as a secondary weak cold front passes through, so introduced a larger area of slight chance to chance precipitation chances here. Tuesday is shaping up to be a beautiful day with a mostly sunny sky and expansive high pressure at the surface. Highs will remain on the cool side, ranging from the lower teens above zero east to the 20s across the west.
Ahead of the trough, weak lift could bring some very small chances of drizzle this afternoon in far southeast Nebraska. Temperature have also increased to just above freezing today in the southeast, so any winter impacts are near zero.
723 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2020 Mostly clear skies with mild temperatures continuing tonight as deep high pressure remains in firm control of the region.
(This evening through Tuesday) Strong cold front, located across western into northern Oklahoma this afternoon will continue to move south across the area tonight. Will maintain precip chances mainly across southern/southeast Oklahoma and north Texas tonight as a minor upper wave lifts north through east Texas interacts with this cold front could see some showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Should see a bit of a lull in the activity on Tuesday as minor wave moves east and main upper trough begins to make the turn east out of the baja area.
A weak cold front will gradually move across the TAF sites switching the wind to the east to northeast after sunset. The stronger cold front will arrive from KCDS to KPVW then KLBB before sunrise increasing wind speeds to around 15 knots and dropping ceilings into MVFR range. There could also be some light precipitation at KLBB and KPVW starting at 21Z Tuesday but confidence on precipitation onset as well as whether temperatures will be below freezing will preclude inclusion at this time as well.
1043 PM CST Mon Feb 3 2020 Surface ridging associated with high pressure over the Canadian Prairies continues to build into the Upper Mississippi Valley this afternoon. A band of clouds tied to a weak cold front dropping through is progressively swallowing up the forecast area. All this has led to a cooler day across the region with highs in the 30s to around 40.
1108 PM CST Mon Feb 3 2020 Dry conditions continue through Tuesday night, as high pressure builds into the region. We didn't make much adjustment to the lows tonight, which will range from the single digits below zero over northeast Minnesota, and single digits above zero over northwest Wisconsin. High pressure will gradually build into the region from the Canadian Prairies Tuesday, with highs in the single digits to middle teens above zero.
1125 PM CST Mon Feb 3 2020 Early this afternoon a broad area of low pressure was forming over eastern Kansas along a stationary front that extended eastward into central Missouri. Moisture will continue to spread into southern Missouri and southeast Kansas this evening as the aforementioned surface wave tracks eastward, pulling a cold front into the region.
/issued 922 PM CST Mon Feb 3 2020/ Showers continue to spread northeastward across the Mississippi Delta ahead of an approaching cold front. /issued 404 PM CST Mon Feb 3 2020/ The ridge that has influenced our region over the last couple of days has began to weaken and slowly move east. This, has allowed a low pressure system - currently over Kansas - to slowly drag east-northeast with the cold front stretching from central KS into OK and northern TX. The low pressure system will slowly track through the Great Lakes region.
1042 PM CST Mon Feb 3 2020 (This evening through Tuesday) Strong cold front, located across western into northern Oklahoma this afternoon will continue to move south across the area tonight. Will maintain precip chances mainly across southern/southeast Oklahoma and north Texas tonight as a minor upper wave lifts north through east Texas interacts with this cold front could see some showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Should see a bit of a lull in the activity on Tuesday as minor wave moves east and main upper trough begins to make the turn east out of the baja area.
A series of low pressure systems riding northeast along the boundary will bring periods of precipitation to the region over the next several days. The frontal boundary will continue to push slowly southeast across our area through the day on Tuesday as several waves of weak low pressure ride northeast along it. In addition, surface temperatures should still be fairly warm with the road models generally keeping road temperatures above freezing across our north through the night.
The 04/00Z KMFR sounding showed a freezing level of 3100 feet, translating to a snow level near 2000 feet.
200 AM CST Tue Feb 4 2020 Early morning analysis showed upper level ridging over the eastern CONUS with troughing over the Rockies, leaving the forecast area under southwest flow aloft. At the surface, high pressure continued to build into the area with a tight pressure gradient leading to gusty northerly winds. This continued to usher in some cooler air, though widespread mid to high level clouds were keeping temperatures in the 20s to lower 30s. Farther northwest in central Minnesota under clear skies, temperatures had dipped into the lower teens and single digits. Otherwise, high pressure will continue to build in through the day and lead to quiet weather.
High pressure aloft to the west will bring dry but cold conditions to the area through Tuesday night. The center of the cold core upper trough that brought periods of heavy snow, gusty winds and much colder temps sit squarely over Utah this evening. This trough will work slowly east overnight, ending up along the Utah/Colorado border by morning. Earlier lake effect band pointing into northeast Tooele and extreme western Salt Lake counties are beginning to dissipate as the low-level convergence and moisture profile gradually become less favorable for snow bands.
Ceilings should start lowering shortly thereafter, although freezing precipitation won't start until closer to midnight Tuesday night. As a result, expect isolated to scattered showers, with the highest Pops across the Northwest Hill Country and southern Heartland.
Will see if these stronger winds are transient and whether the higher winds spread across more of the coastal waters for possible upgrade to Gale Warning. The low level jet will move to the east after 10Z along with the low level moisture axis and threat for lower ceilings. The low level jet will shift to the east after midnight with winds gradually subsiding.
Cold front is moving faster than computer models forecast and this will spread IFR to LIFR ceilings into all TAF sites through the early morning hours Tuesday and have sped the timing up compared to previous TAFs.
/issued 816 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2020/ High pressure over the region will drift east well out into the Atlantic Ocean over the next couple of days with a southerly flow developing on the back side helping to bring warmer moister air back into the forecast area.
Cold front will push through northern terminals over the next few hours and approach central terminals by Tuesday evening.
Lows by Tuesday morning will be mild in the low to mid 50s for most locations. In the upper levels, ridging extends across most of the Eastern CONUS with a deep upper level trough across the Desert Southwest. The low-levels have been a bit slower to saturate than previously forecast and have delayed the onset of precipitation by a few hours.
922 PM CST Mon Feb 3 2020 Showers continue to spread northeastward across the Mississippi Delta ahead of an approaching cold front. /issued 404 PM CST Mon Feb 3 2020/ The ridge that has influenced our region over the last couple of days has began to weaken and slowly move east. This, has allowed a low pressure system - currently over Kansas - to slowly drag east-northeast with the cold front stretching from central KS into OK and northern TX. The low pressure system will slowly track through the Great Lakes region.
1100 PM CST Mon Feb 3 2020 Quiet and cooler weather continues over the next few days as Canadian high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest. A weak cold front along the leading edge of this cold airmass continues to work through the area today, with temperatures already dropping into the teens this afternoon across portions of central Minnesota. tuesday night is shaping up to be one of our coldest nights since mid-January, with mostly clear skies and calming winds expected as high pressure centers over the region.
A cold front pushed eastward across northern Arizona this afternoon.
/issued 723 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2020/ Mostly clear skies with mild temperatures continuing tonight as deep high pressure remains in firm control of the region.
Latest regional radar mosaic imagery is showing the shower activity beginning to increase in coverage back along the OH river as well as the lower and mid MS valleys.
Meanwhile, high pressure over the northern High Plains continues to trek east. For tonight, with the aforementioned high pressure nudging in and winds going light, felt a diurnal curve was appropriate so long as it was cold enough.
But main issue is the northern stream 500 mb trough axis moving thru central ND into S Manitoba. Some moisture with this trough axis and this will move thru the area this morning. High pressure will be ove the area today with light winds.
A cold front will arrive at MAF/HOB around 16Z/Tue with MVFR CIGS developing by 00Z/Wed, probably a little sooner.
But main issue is the northern stream 500 mb trough axis moving thru central ND into S Manitoba. Some moisture with this trough axis and this will move thru the area this morning. High pressure will be ove the area today with light winds. Not as cold tonight as winds turn southerly 5 to 12 kts, then much warmer Wednesday as southwest winds increase into the 10-20 kt range by aftn.
412 AM CST Tue Feb 4 2020 Today and Tonight: Early morning surface analysis had a >1020mb high just off the Florida peninsula's east coast that was ridging back across the peninsula and northern Gulf of Mexico while a cold front was noted dropping southeast over southeast Missouri and northwest Arkansas. Surface dewpoints will climb into the low to mid 60s areawide by this evening along with PWATs just shy of an inch and a half. As the cold front approaches our CWA today and becomes nearly parallel to the flow, it will slow and model consensus doesn't move the cold front into our CWA until after midnight tonight. Although temperatures will top out in the low to mid 70s again today, temperatures will be back into the 60s by the time the cold front arrives.
Northerly winds were bringing cooler and drier air into the area this morning.
Ahead of high pressure that was pushing in from the north, a cold front was crossing the forecast area. The high holds on with subsidence for tonight and a clear sky. Not as cold on Wednesday, actually quite a bit warmer with southwest winds and warmer air over us - aloft.
748 AM EST Tue Feb 4 2020 Pleasant sensible weather today as moderating trend continues with southerly low level flow between W Atlantic high pressure and developing storm system in S Plains. Water temperatures are still in the low to mid 70s 50 plus miles offshore and even warmer still in the Loop current.
The highest probability for another inch or two of accumulation will mainly be along & east of the Laramie Range into Laramie, Platte and Goshen counties where low-level upslope should be more prevalent for a few more hours.
308 AM MST Tue Feb 4 2020 Water vapor shows the upper trough moving from the Great Basin into the CO/WY Rockies. Surface analysis shows high pressure centered pushing into ND from Canada. There is a little bit of freezing fog across parts of northeast WY. Temperatures today will be in the 20s to low 30s, then slightly warmer on Wednesday, with highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s.
413 AM MST Tue Feb 4 2020 Water vapor shows the upper trough moving from the Great Basin into the CO/WY Rockies. Surface analysis shows high pressure centered pushing into ND from Canada. There is a little bit of freezing fog across parts of northeast WY. Temperatures today will be in the 20s to low 30s, then slightly warmer on Wednesday, with highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s.
Through the today period and the overnight period, waves of low pressure will track north along the boundary as it slowly pushes east over the the next 48 hours. Troughing across the Great Plains will keep eastern Kentucky in moist southwesterly flow, bringing abundant chances for precipitation. Consensus is still for this low to largely remain west of the Appalachians, keeping the region in the warm sector. Rain showers will continue through the day as the low skirts north into the southeast Great Lakes as temperatures begin to drop as a cold front moves through.
331 AM CST Tue Feb 4 2020 Today: A positively tilted mid/upper level trough axis currently extending across the intermountain west will continue to drop southeastward through the central Plains through mid-week. Will mention a few hundredths across our far southern counties with the higher snow totals well to our south across portions of Kansas. Wednesday: As the previous mentioned upper trough begins to move overhead, another bout of light snow is possible in our southeastern counties Wednesday morning.
Upper low still back to the west along the Colorado/Utah border early this morning, though best forcing for snowfall was already leaving of the area as tightest mid level thermal gradient and associated upglide has shifted south toward the NM border. Radar loop and latest HRRR suggest a lull in snowfall toward sunrise as band over the plains slowly dissipates, before a modest upturn in snow shower chances this afternoon as upper trough moves overhead and weak convective instability develops.
Today: A positively tilted mid/upper level trough axis currently extending across the intermountain west will continue to drop southeastward through the central Plains through mid-week. Will mention a few hundredths across our far southern counties with the higher snow totals well to our south across portions of Kansas. Wednesday: As the previous mentioned upper trough begins to move overhead, another bout of light snow is possible in our southeastern counties Wednesday morning.
609 AM EST Tue Feb 4 2020 Moisture will slowly increase across the area today as a low pressure system approaches from the lower Mississippi Valley.
346 AM CST Tue Feb 4 2020 (Today and Tonight) A cold front has moved into the Big Country early this morning and will continue to slowly move south through the day, reaching the Interstate 10 corridor late this afternoon or early this evening. An upper level trough currently across the Southwest United States will approach the forecast area overnight. Temperatures will begin to fall to or below freezing in our northern and western counties by late evening, with rain beginning to mix with sleet.
Temperatures trend warmer on Wednesday. Weak high pressure will be seen over the Northland Wednesday night keeping dry conditions in place.
Overall a quiet day is expected today as high pressure moves in from the west.
There is an upper level low in the central Rockies and the first wave is starting to affect the area. This will bring clearing and slightly warmer temperatures.
The HREF and NAM models suggest the lower levels across southwest Nebraska will moisten up this afternoon as a result of low level frontogenesis. The strong northwest flow aloft will support a series of weak cold fronts which will trigger slight to chance POPs at times.
The high will move to the east this afternoon. A weak wave in the NW flow aloft will bring warm front with mostly cloudy skies on Wednesday.
The upper level trough was slowly churning across the Intermountain West and appears to already have a closed off height contour over Colorado. This will continue through Wednesday afternoon to a varying degree on the downstream side of the upper trough. Before the main snow event occurs tonight, a cold front was currently moving through the area much quicker than anticipated. A quick end to the event will occur late Wednesday afternoon with the trough axis moving overhead.
457 AM CST Tue Feb 4 2020 As a cold front continues to push south toward the Ohio River this morning, temperatures will continue to steadily fall north of the front. A stronger storm system will bring a few inches of snow to central Illinois Wednesday and Wednesday night, with sleet and freezing rain continuing to be a threat in areas near I-70. Surface map at 2 am showed the cold front located roughly along line from Vandalia to just south of Danville. Beyond this storm system, a period of cooler and drier weather is favored late week into the first part of the weekend.
Temperatures will range from the lower to middle teens across much of the area, to the middle 20s in the Bighorn Basin.
Mid-level cloud decks will persist as a well-defined trough moves across the Plains. No snowfall is expected due to a robust dry layer in the lower levels.
432 AM MST Tue Feb 4 2020 Satellite imagery shows broken low/mid level clouds across a good portion of the forecast area early this morning as the trough axis slowly moves to the north/east. Precipitation seems to be dropping off a little sooner than expected with accumulations looking weak even in the higher terrain. Northerly flow aloft moves in on the back side of the trough today keeping us cool through the short term. Outside of extreme southern Utah, much of the forecast area will struggle to see daytime temperatures above freezing today with similar conditions expected for Wednesday.
512 AM CST Tue Feb 4 2020 Early morning analysis showed upper level ridging over the eastern CONUS with troughing over the Rockies, leaving the forecast area under southwest flow aloft. At the surface, high pressure continued to build into the area with a tight pressure gradient leading to gusty northerly winds. This continued to usher in some cooler air, though widespread mid to high level clouds were keeping temperatures in the 20s to lower 30s. Farther northwest in central Minnesota under clear skies, temperatures had dipped into the lower teens and single digits. Otherwise, high pressure will continue to build in through the day and lead to quiet weather.
409 AM CST Tue Feb 4 2020 Ahead of high pressure that was pushing in from the north, a cold front was crossing the forecast area. The high holds on with subsidence for tonight and a clear sky. Not as cold on Wednesday, actually quite a bit warmer with southwest winds and warmer air over us - aloft.
347 AM CST Tue Feb 4 2020 Cold front moving into southeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas early this morning, currently located near a Clayton, Fayetteville line. Otherwise, cold/breezy conditions expected over the area today behind cold front. In addition, point soundings suggest the potential for sleet and/or freezing rain to spread into southeast Oklahoma Wednesday morning. Forecast ice amounts have increased to around a tenth of an inch across aforementioned area, including the higher terrain areas of northwest Arkansas. Heavier snow will begin to lift northeast of the area Wednesday evening as upper trough axis begins to shift east of the region.
Current water vapor satellite reveals a trough over the Four Corners with multiple disturbances rounding this feature and ejecting northeastward over W TX and OK.
305 AM CST Tue Feb 4 2020 As a cold front continues to push south toward the Ohio River this morning, temperatures will continue to steadily fall north of the front. A stronger storm system will bring a few inches of snow to central Illinois Wednesday and Wednesday night, with sleet and freezing rain continuing to be a threat in areas near I-70. Surface map at 2 am showed the cold front located roughly along line from Vandalia to just south of Danville. Beyond this storm system, a period of cooler and drier weather is favored late week into the first part of the weekend.
307 AM CST Tue Feb 4 2020 A broad upper level ridge that encompassed the central 1/3 of the country is steadily shifting east. Southeasterly flow will becoming solidified today with high pressure now east of the local area. A longwave trough will slowly dig south from the Rockies to Texas over a 48 hour period, beginning this morning. As the trough gets closer Wednesday, low and mid level winds will dramatically increase.
Gusty Sierra ridge winds this morning will diminish, but remain gusty at times the next couple nights. Another cold front is expected for the weekend with a few snow showers and gusty winds possible.