Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A strong high pressure system over the western United States will remain in place through the Labor Day weekend. Strong high pressure remains in place along with lingering monsoon moisture. There has been some stabilization over the past 24 hours with a bit warmer mid level tempertures and some decrease in low level moisture.
Overview: A pronounced upper level ridge. and extending eastward over the High Plains -- will prevail through the weekend. Synoptic subsidence assoc/w the aforementioned ridge will maintain clear skies, dry conditions, slightly above normal temperatures, and light (5-15 mph) E to SSE winds through the weekend.
(Tonight) An upper trough axis will continue to slowly shift east, bringing better upper level support into the area. Have maintained 60-80% PoPs through the overnight hours, with mostly cloudy skies and overnight lows in the lower 70s.
453 PM EDT Sat Sep 3 2022 Late this afternoon a large but weak upper level trough extended from eastern TX to the Great Lakes, where it joined with a met up with a trough in the prevailing westerlies aloft. Upper level ridging was of the southeast coast. At the surface, a high pressure ridge was near the East Coast. Our eastern counties have seen the least concentration of showers/thunderstorms, being furthest from the upper trough and under the modest drying influence of the downslope low level flow. We are expecting a very active time, as a trough of low pressure aloft, and surface front, and a series of weak disturbances moving along it, to trigger and storm activity around eastern Kentucky.
325 PM EDT Sat Sep 3 2022 A positively-tilted upper trough over the Great Lakes will gradually advance toward the state, and eventually suppress the currently dominant ridge along the eastern seaboard.
209 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022 An amplified mid/upper ridge remains anchored across the Central Great Basin area while a mid/upper trough was drifting slowly northeastward over the Middle Mississippi Valley.
HIgh temperatures will remain in the 80s mountains and mid to upper 90s in the low elevations Sunday.
Nestled within the nearby mean layer ridging are two TUTT cells, one south of Cuba and the other near the Bay of Campeche. 0") east of the Keys, which would suggest most of this moisture is in the sweet spot of the lower troposphere. Closer to home, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the Keys, with locations in the lee of the Lower Keys receiving several rounds.
227 PM MDT Sat Sep 3 2022 Latest analysis shows an upper level ridge over the western parts of the forecast area this afternoon. By very late in the week, the northern periphery of the ridge should flatten as upper energy crosses the northern tier.
(This evening through Sunday) Convective chances will be focused along a cold front across southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma this afternoon as a weak mid- level wave diving southwestward provides a bit of extra lift.
Overnight hours are then likely to remain quiet, although will need to watch the extent of thunderstorm development and spread associated with a cold front moving southward into northern Oklahoma from southern Kansas as steering flow could bring a long-lived MCS toward or into the northeast part of the forecast area late tonight. Focus finally shifts to Sunday afternoon with a similar setup to today with the potential for outflow from the expected Oklahoma MCS or even the main synoptic cold front being in or near the forecast area while the air mass will again be hot, humid, and weakly-capped.
An upper trof which extends from near the Mississippi/Ohio River confluence into Arkansas (and weakly into eastern Texas) becomes better defined through the period while a broad upper ridge remains centered across much of the northern Gulf to off the coast of the Carolinas. Lows tonight range from the lower 70s inland to the mid 70s at the coast, and highs on Sunday will be in the mid to upper 80s.
(This evening through Sunday Night) The weak cold front on approach has some wheels and continues to spread across the midSouth. Highs will be warmer areawide for our Sunday with lower 90s on average and afternoon sunshine.
Discussion: In the upper levels, a trough remains over the Mississippi Valley and the Ohio Valley tonight and tomorrow. At the surface, a weak low near Western Tennessee will remain nearly stationary with a stationary or warm front near or just south of Tennessee. Activity will be isolated overnight but the Cumberland Plateau counties may see more scattered activity closer to the trough and surface front. With increasing clouds and rain tomorrow, highs will be lower in the lower 80s for most of the Tennessee Valley.
Overview: A pronounced upper level ridge. and extending eastward over the High Plains -- will prevail through the weekend. Synoptic subsidence assoc/w the aforementioned ridge will maintain clear skies, dry conditions, slightly above normal temperatures, and light (5-15 mph) E to SSE winds through the weekend. High pressure situated over the western CONUS will contribute to the lackluster weather.
1119 AM MDT Sat Sep 3 2022 Water vapor shows broad western CONUS ridge extending into the Plains. At the surface, high pressure is located over the Dakotas. Upper ridge axis folds into the Northern Plains later today and Sunday, with temps warming well into the 90s by Sunday and possibly near 100 on the plains east of the Black Hills. By very late in the week, the northern periphery of the ridge should flatten as upper energy crosses the northern tier.
Any convective redevelopment along the cold front/outflow boundary composite is expected to remain southeast of the southeast zones, across NW Oklahoma, but kept minimal slight chance pops across the far SE zones this evening to cover any stray activity wandering across the border. Surface pressures are expected to rise tonight as surface ridging builds southwest onto the high plains.
1243 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022 (Rest of Today) A low pressure system over SE MO will slowly drift east today before stalling near the OH River Valley later in the weekend. A band of showers can currently be seen moving east through MS, where better forcing for ascent exists along the trough axis.
A trough stalled out around Missouri continues to keep an area of vorticity overhead and allows for cloud cover to remain mainly in areas south of US-24.
These showers and storms have formed just ahead or on the cold front that is moving slowly into the area this morning. Main question today are the chances for showers and storms with the cold front as it moves south into the area. Proximity of the low may lead to some isolated showers in our far south and southeastern counties, but more dry time is expected than rainy. This low will finally make it's way out of the area by midweek. Cold front will slowly move through eastern Iowa and northern Illinois through 02z/04.
Mid-level low pressure will continue to remain near the state through the period which will provide occasional showers and thunderstorms mainly across the eastern half of the state. Models cont to show an elongated upper trof axis persisting acrs the FA the next few days.
1243 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022 KEY MESSAGES: - Seasonally cool temperatures this holiday weekend with highs in the low to mid 70s and overnight lows dipping to the 40s.
Northerly winds and CAA will continue to bring cooler and more dry air in behind the front. These pleasant conditions will continue through tomorrow as highs climb only into the low 80s. This will lead to increasing cloud cover for eastern Kansas and potentially a few showers or thunderstorms as an upper-level jet streak rotates around the low. The upper low gradually sinks south over the Lower Mississippi Valley, while a large upper ridge stays over the central Rockies. This will keep temperatures near or slightly above average, with highs in the mid/upper 80s and lows in the low/mid 60s. Large- scale subsidence downstream of the ridge axis and upstream of the trough axis will keep precipitation chances on the low end. Just a few minor chances mid-week as weak vorticity maxima round the western ridge and drop into the upper low.
As a result, temperatures vary quite a bit across the Midsouth, from the lower 80s in northeast Arkansas where rain and clouds have been more prevalent, to the lower 90s near and south of Memphis, between the lines of showers. Expect the low and associated clouds to shift to the east through the day resulting in partly to mostly cloudy conditions across the Midsouth this afternoon.
The showers and storms are developing in a soupy air mass ahead of a near stationary low pressure system over the Mid Ms Valley. The low pressure is sandwiched between high pressure systems over the western states and the Atlantic.
Isolated storms were noted over the higher terrain at 2 pm. With mid level northeasterly flow and some remnant moisture over the higher terrain, isold storms will continue over the higher terrain into the very early evening hours. north to northeasterly mid level flow will continue over the region as a large dominant mid level high pressure circulation center continues over the Great Basin. Dry air advecting down from the northern Great Plains combined with general downward vertical motion associated with the area of high pressure will allow for nearly dry conditions tomorrow over the high terrain. 2) Continued chances for daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the high country.
The upper flow pattern continues to be dominated by very strong upper level ridging over the desert southwest. Upper ridging will continue to dominate, keeping weather impacts at a minimum.
Not much change in the forecast is expected for the Labor Day weekend with some degree of mainly afternoon/evening showers and storms with weak upper level low pressure remaining in place near or over the area.
1221 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022 (Today and tonight) Upper high pressure is currently situated across the Great Basin and Desert Southwest region early this morning. The high will will expand a bit more eastward the next 24 hours, allowing the weak upper trough over our area to shift a bit farther south and east through tonight. Although rain chances will continue to affect much of the area generally south of Interstate 20 today, the highest rain chances will shift southward across the Northwest Hill Country into the northern Edwards Plateau region. High temperatures today will range from the lower 90s across the Big Country where less cloud cover is expected, to the lower and middle 80s along the I-10 corridor.
A weak cold front continues to slowly move southward through the forecast area this afternoon. But it will help inhibit the upper ridge from really expanding eastward and especially over the eastern Plains. A weak cold front is slowly moving south through the area this afternoon. Winds will be light through the forecast and trend to the north behind the weak cold front.
947 AM MDT Sat Sep 3 2022 Labor Day weekend looks to be pleasant with slightly cooler than last week temperatures and dry conditions. The Tri-State area is expected to be under northerly to northeasterly flow aloft as it sits between the positively-tilted upper trough moving into the Eastern CONUS and the upper ridge over the Great Basin. The ridge is expected to remain dominant over the area through the period with an upper low moving east along the Canadian border from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes. Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 80s today for highs and the low to mid 50s overnight. Sunday looks to be slightly warmer with afternoon highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s and overnight lows in the mid 50s.
The cold front ran southwest from the low roughly along the Mississippi and then southwest into southern Kansas. The proximity of an upper low 'may' allow some isolated showers or even a thunderstorm to develop east of the Mississippi and south of I-80.
644 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022 (Tonight) An upper trough axis will continue to slowly shift east, bringing better upper level support into the area. Have maintained 60-80% PoPs through the overnight hours, with mostly cloudy skies and overnight lows in the lower 70s.
554 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022 (This evening through Sunday) Convective chances will be focused along a cold front across southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma this afternoon as a weak mid- level wave diving southwestward provides a bit of extra lift.
Temperatures are the region this evening are in the low to mid 70s. As a result, temperatures vary quite a bit across the Midsouth, from the lower 80s in northeast Arkansas where rain and clouds have been more prevalent, to the lower 90s near and south of Memphis, between the lines of showers. Expect the low and associated clouds to shift to the east through the day resulting in partly to mostly cloudy conditions across the Midsouth this afternoon.
A weak cold front continues to slowly move southward through the forecast area this afternoon. But it will help inhibit the upper ridge from really expanding eastward and especially over the eastern Plains.
612 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022 (This evening through Sunday night) Showers and storms are forming south of the area along boundaries that pushed through the Panhandle this morning as surface convergence is providing a little extra support along with the higher dewpoints and CAPE to the south. While the boundary to the south will focus better chances for storms, multiple S/WVs (show up best at H3) will roll across the area on the backside of a trough that continues to deepen from Lake Michigan SW into N Cen TX. That said, there is a modest theta-e ridge out ahead of the s/wv and it will be timed near the time of peak heating with SBCAPE of 1000-2000 J/KG and minimal cap.
224 PM MST Sat Sep 3 2022 Upper high pressure centered over central Utah continues to influence the weather across the southwestern US. A strong upper level high pressure system over the Great Basin will help suppress any widespread convective activity for the next few days. The ridge is currently winning a battle with Javier, tracking along the Baja Peninsula, with isolated thunderstorm activity being confined to extreme northern Mexico this afternoon. The ridge will keep max temps slightly above normal for the next few days, before another tropical system weighs in on the action.
606 PM MDT Sat Sep 3 2022 A strong upper level high keeps our region under northwesterly winds aloft. MLCAPE increases to 500-700 J/kg in the higher terrain this afternoon into early evening, isolated to scattered showers are possible until 5PM. With Denver's daily record high being 97 set in 1995, it is not out of the question that we could tie this given the lack of cloud cover but most short-term and RAW guidance keeps us near the high of 95. Strong upper level high will be centered over Utah for much of the week and bring very warm temperatures to most of the western U.
Late this afternoon a large but weak upper level trough extended from eastern TX to the Great Lakes, where it joined with a met up with a trough in the prevailing westerlies aloft. Upper level ridging was of the southeast coast. At the surface, a high pressure ridge was near the East Coast. Our eastern counties have seen the least concentration of showers/thunderstorms, being furthest from the upper trough and under the modest drying influence of the downslope low level flow. We are expecting a very active time, as a trough of low pressure aloft, and surface front, and a series of weak disturbances moving along it, to trigger and storm activity around eastern Kentucky.
737 PM EDT Sat Sep 3 2022 Aviation - Chance of showers/storms tonight into Sunday - At 18Z this aftn the sfc wx map shows the cold front has moved into our nw fcst area. Locally heavy rainfall is possible given the high pw values and mesoscale environment. Winds will gradually veer to the north to eventually ne and increase after cold frontal passage resulting in building waves and hazardous swimming conditions through tonight. They are segmented to account for the cold frontal timing and southward progression of hazardous conditions.
Surface dewpoints are in the low to mid 70s with PW values near 2 inches.
508 PM MDT Sat Sep 3 2022 Latest analysis shows an upper level ridge over the western parts of the forecast area this afternoon. By very late in the week, the northern periphery of the ridge should flatten as upper energy crosses the northern tier.
928 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022 (This evening through Sunday) Convective chances will be focused along a cold front across southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma this afternoon as a weak mid- level wave diving southwestward provides a bit of extra lift.
High pressure continues to hold over the Great Basin allowing for hot and dry, but quiet, weather conditions. High pressure continues to hold over the Great Basin allowing for hot and dry, but quiet, weather conditions.
coast as well as aloft, easterlies were noted all the way up, backing to northeast above 300 mb as the TUTT continued to spin south of Cuba with the upper ridge in place, as it was 24 hours ago, above the northern Gulf of Mexico. Given the morning sounding was more indicative of a convective shower, comparison with 24 hours ago indicating warming throughout the low to mid levels, more so at 700 mb at 500 mb. Aloft, some acceleration in the upper northeasterlies is taking place in the Straits, offset a bit by confluence between the north Gulf ridge and the TUTT. High pressure over the western North Atlantic will result in gentle to occasionally moderate east to southeast breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys.
A strong upper level high keeps our region under northwesterly winds aloft. MLCAPE increases to 500-700 J/kg in the higher terrain this afternoon into early evening, isolated to scattered showers are possible until 5PM. With Denver's daily record high being 97 set in 1995, it is not out of the question that we could tie this given the lack of cloud cover but most short-term and RAW guidance keeps us near the high of 95. Strong upper level high will be centered over Utah for much of the week and bring very warm temperatures to most of the western U.
621 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022 An amplified mid/upper ridge remains anchored across the Central Great Basin area while a mid/upper trough was drifting slowly northeastward over the Middle Mississippi Valley.
High pressure continues to hold over the Great Basin allowing for hot and dry, but quiet, weather conditions.
A low pressure system over northeast Oregon will slowly make its way across central Idaho and western Montana late this afternoon and evening. Gusty winds and scattered thunderstorms are expected with this low.
Upper level trough exiting the region to the north this evening.
626 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022 (This afternoon through Sunday night) An upper trough over the the Mississippi River Valley extends SW down across TX splitting the ridge into two region, one over UT and the other over the Atlantic Coast. This trough deepens on Sunday and helps to keep high pressure blocked to the west. Highs will be in the 80s to the lower 90s.
1233 AM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 (This evening through Sunday night) Showers and storms are forming south of the area along boundaries that pushed through the Panhandle this morning as surface convergence is providing a little extra support along with the higher dewpoints and CAPE to the south. While the boundary to the south will focus better chances for storms, multiple S/WVs (show up best at H3) will roll across the area on the backside of a trough that continues to deepen from Lake Michigan SW into N Cen TX. That said, there is a modest theta-e ridge out ahead of the s/wv and it will be timed near the time of peak heating with SBCAPE of 1000-2000 J/KG and minimal cap.
219 AM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 Light rain had ended this morning as a back door cold front from Lake Michigan brought cooler and drier air into northwest IL. The cold front from yesterday stalled and mixed out across the area. Aloft, the upper level low has stalled near us. This low and higher dewpoints will drive the weather through the short term. Upper level low and any breaks in cloud cover could lead to showers and storms this afternoon. Cutoff upper low will continue to gyrate around the Midwest, which will lead to a focus area for precipitation chances and cloud cover through the first half of the week. With this low hanging close to the area, we will see easterly winds, pulling in some more moisture from the Great Lakes.
412 AM EDT Sun Sep 4 2022 High pressure is in place across the area with the ridge axis to the north and an upper high in place over the state.
Tranquil conditions will persist today and tonight as upper level ridging continues to dominate the Intermountain West into the Western High Plains. Expect highs generally up into the mid/upper 80s(F) to possibly the lower 90s(F).
300 AM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 Slow moving upper low was over the Mid Mississippi Valley region early this morning. Convection should progress steadily over west KY into southwest IN on the SE flank of the low, while over southern IL, convection will likely move little in close proximity to the low.
The main feature driving the sensible weather in the short term will continue to be a nearly stationary mid-level trough that extends from the central Great Lakes into the mid -Mississippi River Valley and further southwest into the Ozarks.
Tranquil conditions will persist today and tonight as upper level ridging continues to dominate the Intermountain West into the Western High Plains. Expect highs generally up into the mid/upper 80s(F) to possibly the lower 90s(F). A dry and uneventful pattern will persist through the middle of the week as models indicate upper level ridging remaining locked in across the Intermountain West.
For Sunday night, we appear to lose that aforementioned dry layer in the low to mid levels so perhaps we have a better chance for precipitation, but we also lose the instability.
Slightly warmer readings are expected in our northwestern counties where a bit better mixing takes place with a more south/southeasterly wind component around 10- 15 mph. Increasing southerly low-level winds will bring in slightly warmer temperatures for the holiday with highs mainly in the low to mid 80s. Dry conditions will continue into the work/school week with above normal temperatures as upper level ridging across the western CONUS moves east into the central Plains.
(Today through Monday night) Upper level high pressure over Nevada and Utah will dominate the weather across much of the Panhandles through Labor Day. There will still be one more short wave trough that may help to bring some showers and thunderstorms to the southeast Texas Panhandle this afternoon and evening. The upper level high moves ever so slightly to the east on Labor Day. This may be just enough to keep any eastern fringe short wave troughs from affecting our area.
A warm front is currently drifting north thru north AL this early Sun morning. A deep upper trough pattern stretching south across the Mid South into the western Gulf Coast is serving as a sufficient lifting mech for much of this convection and little change in this gen pattern is expected later today.
Thunderstorms have developed over the high terrain and continue to drift southward in front of the push of northward flow on the east side of the Great Basin high pressure. High pressure will generally stay put for Sunday too.
Trough axis remains between the Rockies ridge and another ridge over the sern U. Likewise, Sunday night looks to be fairly similar, with cooler temps seen over in the central UP too. Therefore, it is possible that we could see some localized patches of frost over in the western and central interior areas tonight and Sunday night, particularly in the highest elevations and cold pool spots. Meanwhile for highs Sunday, expect slightly warmer temps as WAA slowly enters into the Upper Midwest, with some spots in the interior, away from the north central, hitting 70. As we move into Labor Day, expect temps to warm up to around the climatological normal as high pressure remains over Upper MI and WAA continues; expect highs to be in the 70s on Labor Day.