Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Otherwise, temps will range from the low 60s inland to mid 60s along the coast. Rain chances increase through the afternoon as a cold front approaches the area. A deepening upper-level trough over the Intermountain West ejects eastward over the Great Plains tonight. As the aforementioned trough progresses into the eastern CONUS, an attendant cold front dives into the lower Mississippi River valley by the mid afternoon hours Wednesday. Ahead of this cold front, a moist and unstable airmass will develop as Gulf air continues to pump into the central Gulf states.
512 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017 /00Z TAFS/ A cold front will move south through West Central Texas overnight with front arrival at KABI around 07Z, 12Z at KSJT, and 15Z at the southern terminals. /issued 345 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017/ (Tonight and Wednesday) Latest satellite imagery shows an upper level broad trough over the western US moving east, with a shield of cirrus across much of central and east Texas ahead of the trough. cold front will move through late tonight through early Wednesday. Although we will see slightly cooler temperatures, we are still expecting highs in the 60s for Wednesday with mostly clear skies.
The trough that has been over the northern Rockies the past several days continues to slowly move east. A low pressure will develop across the area, and the pressure gradient along the foothills will increase.
544 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017 An upper trough will cross the Northern and Central Plains tonight. Lows tonight will range from the mid teens eastern panhandle to the lower 20s southeast.
This was the first round, while the cold front and upper system will move through AR later after midnight. As mentioned, these storms will mainly be along a line ahead of the cold front, with strong damaging winds the main threat, while large hail and an isolated tornado a lower threat. Lows tonight will be mild over central and southern areas with the cold front, while over northern AR around normal values. Tuesday evening convection will be more isolated and strong to severe, while tonight a cold front will gradually push across the state and additional convection will be seen along the cold front with also isolated strong to severe storms.
However, as a cold front approaches the Red River around midnight, it may impart sufficient lift for thunderstorms to develop. The cold front will arrive before daybreak, and north flow will prevail Wednesday and Wednesday night. The dry line has moved just to east of a Wichita Falls to Junction line as of 3 PM while a cold front extended from northwestern Missouri to southeastern Colorado. The cold front will move into the Graham to Bowie areas shortly after midnight and sweep rapidly southeast through all but the southeastern-most zones by daybreak Wednesday.
835 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017 Have increased pops across far northeast Oklahoma and for later tonight as a cold front currently across southeast Oklahoma moves into the area.
610 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 A series of disturbances will keep periodic rain in the forecast through tonight before a strong cold front results in strong showers and thunderstorms Wednesday. Confidence continues to increase for severe thunderstorms to generate along the cold front on Wednesday.
700 PM MST Tue Feb 28 2017 Area of snow is moving se across the plains in association with main upper level trough which should exit area by 04z or so. Have adjusted forecast for earlier ending time with this fast moving trof. Behind the trof, stronger nw winds will also develop over the northeast portions of Colorado. Dry and slightly warmer conditions expected on the plains for Wednesday.
524 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 A warm southerly flow between offshore high pressure and an approaching cold front will continue through Wednesday. The cold front will move through the forecast area Wednesday night. Cooler conditions will follow the front for the end of the week. The main issues Wednesday will be breezy to possibly windy conditions ahead of a cold front, and possible severe thunderstorms late Wednesday afternoon and night. The models depict a strong low-level jet ahead of the cold front Wednesday with h85 winds 40 to 50 knots.
910 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 A series of disturbances will keep periodic rain in the forecast through tonight before a strong cold front results in strong showers and thunderstorms Wednesday. Fries Confidence continues to increase for severe thunderstorms to generate along the cold front on Wednesday.
Dry and cooler air will spread through the Midsouth late Wednesday afternoon and evening, setting the stage for low afternoon daytime humidity levels late in the week.
Winds will continue to diminish as a cold front drops southward across the Panhandles. Northwest to north winds will be a little gusty behind the cold front, but winds should decrease after midnight. Wednesday will be the coolest day of the next seven behind the cold front with highs generally in the 50s.
High pressure will dominate across the region through midweek resulting in generally pleasant weather.
438 PM MST Tue Feb 28 2017 00Z TAF CYCLE Significant Pac trough passage will finish its sweep over the area this evening. Areas of precipitation and wind will taper off tonight as an upper level trough exits east of New Mexico. In the wake of the weather system, cooler air will continue to funnel into central and eastern parts of the state on Wednesday, but temperatures across western areas will begin to rebound.
Mainly snow continues across parts of east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin this morning associated with a fairly weak low pressure system over Iowa.
High pressure builds in resulting in dry weather and warmer temperatures.
Upper level high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern across Oklahoma and Arkansas, with the next weather maker positioned along the West Coast and poised to make a slow approach.
Slower exit of Nevada upper low into Utah and Wyoming Friday will keep temps a little milder than MOS lows at night and cooler than MOS highs during the day Friday.
411 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016 One more seasonably warm to hot day is expected tomorrow as the 591 dam mid-level ridge shifts eastward in response to an approaching high-amplitude trough.
High amplitude upper lvl ridge centered along the MS River Valley will drift slowly east into the lower OH Valley and Great Lakes region by the end of the short term.
Greatest warmth will be felt in the afternoons, as upper level ridge builds over the area and temperatures top out around 10 degrees above normal.
Aloft, the upper level ridge that has had control of our weather for a while now will slowly begin to shift east as the strong upper level trough currently over the Great Basin approaches the area from the west. Another result of the approaching trough will be increasing southerly low level flow, and an increase in low level moisture. For the rest of the day Friday, highs may be just another degree or two cooler as the ridge weakens slightly.
648 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 High pressure will continue to provide fair weather across the area tonight. A weak cold front will move south across the area on Friday, possibly causing a few showers north of US 30. Lows tonight will be in the lower to middle 60s with highs on Friday ranging from the upper 70s over southern Michigan to the mid 80s over central portions of Indiana and Ohio. Mainly quiet weather will prevail through the first part of the short term period, with the CWA on the fringes of an expansive upper level ridge. Friday afternoon a cold front will drop southward from Michigan into the area.
Broad High pressure over the Eastern half of the United States will continue to dominate Indiana/s Weather through the weekend.
357 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 Clouds will be on the increase overnight as a cold front moves slowly south from Canada.
The surface and upper high pressure systems are dominating the weather pattern over the region, keeping conditions dry and warm.
We continue to watch progression of large upper low moving through western U. Unlike past few days, minimal signs of an upstream short wave to focus low level response into boundary that divides very moist airmass to the south and drier, cooler airmass north. Combined with backing flow as upper trough digs in west, seeing signs in short term model data that main moisture transport and focus will be shifting more west for tonight.
300 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016 Unseasonably warm conditions will continue in the short term as upper level ridging holds over much of the Midwest and a nearly stationary front remains from eastern Nebraska across central Iowa into southern WI. The upper level ridge is expected to strengthen a bit over us on Friday which will keep the synoptic front to our north.
/issued 157 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016/ We've got a large upper trough digging through the western US today, slowly edging the upper ridging overhead eastward. Still being under the influence of the ridge, despite the fact that it's officially Fall, temperatures will warm to the upper 80s and low 90s or so by peak heating today. Friday will be very similar to today, but unlike a completely dry day expected today, there could be some isolated storms near the higher terrain regions Friday afternoon.
A weak upper trough remains east of the area with a seasonably dry airmass in place locally.
An upper level ridge will continue to build north into the upper Mississippi Valley over the next couple of days.
301 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 Low Pressure remains off the Carolina coast while high pressure is centered over New England.
The weak SE CONUS mid/upper level short wave trough will continue to drift WSW to W across southern GA/AL and the northern FL panhandle, deforming between the Atlantic and eastern CONUS ridges.
648 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 High pressure will keep the weather warm and dry into the weekend.
Surface ridging remains in place over Central Alabama with very little clouds to note on visible satellite today. High pressure remains front and center, with weather characteristic of afternoon cumulus, and some passing nighttime mid- and high-level clouds.
On the larger scale, the seasonally strong upper-level trough approaching the Great Basin has nudged the TX upper high eastward a bit, with center now analyzed over the north-central part of the state. This, in turn, has allowed the lift associated with a weak inverted mid-level trough rotating around its southern periphery to largely pass north of the CWA and into the Middle Texas Coast, per current satellite imagery. With the inverted trough out of the picture, high pressure aloft will still be in control of our weather.
336 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016 The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a strong trough digging into the western CONUS, with downstream ridging in place across the southern and central US. Overnight lows will be similar to the last couple of nights with temps dipping in the low/mid 60s.
Low pressure will continue to bring showers to much of the area tonight as it moves through the Great Basin.
Low level moisture likely to improve later tonight but the low cloud threat should remain just east of the area according to most current reasoning. /issued 325 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016/ Upper level high over Texas will start to feel the pinch of an approaching upper level low which should make its way to the Great Basin by 12Z Friday. a strengthening Pacific Coast ridge will evolve the morphology of the trough axis to be quite compressed from east to west. As we go into Friday morning, the Gulf of Mexico moisture starts to open up in response to decreasing surface pressure along the lee trough.
A cool upper low is shifting eastward through into Nevada with some showers over the Sierra. Snow levels have come down low enough for some wet snow over the Sierra crest, with some light accumulations over the higher peaks. Most of the area is dry and sunny, though noticeably cooler on this Autumnal Equinox. Temperatures in the Valley were in the lower 50s and even the 40s, and similar lows are expected on Friday. Mountain peaks and mountain basins will again drop below freezing tonight, and some spots may be even cooler than this morning. Upper level ridging brings dry and increasingly warm temperatures, rising to near normal levels Friday, and well above normal for the weekend.
This feature will drift north through the night, caught in the SW flow around a sharp NE-SW trough over the Carolinas and Georgia.
1133 AM MDT THU SEP 22 2016 Early morning RAP and satellite analysis show a large scale trough over the western US, with a closed center near the California/Oregon border. Ridging extends across the central US into the Northern Rockies, with SW flow over the intermountain West. WAA south of this feature should support highs in the 90s, while north highs may struggle to reach the low 80s (depending on cloud cover). Friday-Friday night: Large scale forcing increases with entrance region of jet ahead of large scale trough transitioning over our CWA. Biggest question is going to be low level moisture along/east of this trough and impact on instability. NAM currently shows ML CAPE around 1500 J/KG which could be sufficient for an elevated risk of severe thunderstorms considering the very high shear values ahead of trough (50kt+ effective shear values).
337 PM MDT Thu Sep 22 2016 Stratus cloud cover that lingered over the northeast plains held temperatures cooler through this afternoon. southwesterly flow aloft over Colorado will be increasing ahead of the deep upper low moving into the Great Basin. On the plains, increasing winds will bring warmer and drier condtions. Deep upper level low for this time of year will shift northeast across Wyoming Friday night. Through midnight, there is potential for a mean state critical layer with almost pure southerly flow aloft ahead of the trough axis.
Overnight, models suggest that we may see more robust moisture return in the lower levels as southerly flow ahead of the next system increases, hinting that low clouds may develop, especially for southern sites. /issued 601 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016/ /12Z TAFS/ Upper level ridge will remain over West Central Texas through the next 24 hours. The upper level ridge will remain anchored over Texas resulting in dry weather and light south to southeast winds around 10 mph or less. Afternoon highs today will be in the lower to mid 90s, dropping to around 70 for lows tomorrow morning.
/issued 1021 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016/ Upper ridge remains centered ovhd. 10 am temps once again nearly a carbon copy to yesterday with readings mainly in the lower to middle 80s.
212 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern into Friday with dry and unseasonably warm conditions.
By this evening, models suggesting stratus should begin to expand once again as warm frontal boundary reforms to the south of the CWA. By Friday, the aforementioned warm front will begin to surge northward as an upper trough pivots into the Central Rockies. With a return of broad warm advection ahead of this trough, we may begin to see scattered showers and thunderstorms after midnight and into mid- morning Friday. On the other side of this front, where stratus and lingering showers may prevail well into the afternoon, temperatures may only reach the lower 70s. Friday evening looks to be mostly clear across the area, with the exception across southwest Minnesota along the Buffalo Ridge. Cold front approaches from the west bringing the chance of showers and thunderstorms.
/Issued 301 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016/ Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected to continue for the next few days as high pressure aloft prevails. The chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase markedly over the weekend as an upper level low currently spinning over southern Oregon moves into the rockies on Friday as the flow becomes increasingly amplified.
A strong area of low pressure, situated over northern California this morning, has continued to dig southeast through Nevada this afternoon. A steady stream of precipitation and clouds are visible on radar and satellite over Nevada, Utah, southern Idaho and southwest Montana this afternoon out ahead of the upper low.
Early afternoon satellite imagery was showing a low pressure system advancing EWRD into NW Nevada while the regional radar loop was highlighting an enhanced band of showers extending NE from Eureka NV into south-central Idaho. Numerical models show this band of enhanced precipitation rotating WWRD toward Mountain Home this evening as the low continues to move east toward Wendover. A second band of enhanced shower activity is expected to develop over the SE Highlands late tonight/Friday morning and continue through the day as the low moves through central Utah into WRN Wyoming during the afternoon hours.
157 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016 We've got a large upper trough digging through the western US today, slowly edging the upper ridging overhead eastward. Still being under the influence of the ridge, despite the fact that it's officially Fall, temperatures will warm to the upper 80s and low 90s or so by peak heating today. Friday will be very similar to today, but unlike a completely dry day expected today, there could be some isolated storms near the higher terrain regions Friday afternoon.
253 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016 Tonight through Friday: An upper low over the western states will push slowly east into the Rockies. This will allow a frontal boundary stretching from southeastern Nebraska to far northwestern Kansas, to lift northward as a warm front overnight into Friday.
320 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 Low pressure along the coast of South Carolina slides slowly north along a front through Friday with high pressure shifting over the Southern Appalachians.
Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue with strong upper level ridging in place. Expect high temps in the upper 80s to low 90s for Fri with lows in the low to mid 60s tonight and Fri night.
236 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 High pressure will keep the weather warm and dry into the weekend. Calm and clear conditions expected overnight as high pressure remains in control.
219 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016 Mostly clear skies and lgt easterly winds continue under influence of prolonged ridging across the area, with the exception of a few cumulus clods forming across mainly east TX lakes portions of the area. Despite unseasonally hot temps in the lower to mid 90s, humidities have fortunately remained on the low side past few days.
An upper trough over the Carolinas continues to pull cloud cover into parts of southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. weakening upper trough east of the mountains with low-level convergence and marginal instability for isolated showers possible over southwest North Carolina. The extended will begin in a quiet weather pattern for the weekend as a strong ridge of high pressure remains in control.
629 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern into Friday with dry and unseasonably warm conditions.
120 PM MDT THU SEP 22 2016 General clearing will continue this afternoon along the western fringes of an area of retreating high pressure. A large upper low will approach the CWA overnight and into Friday. For Friday, we will see temperatures soar once more into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees with a sharp drop toward the afternoon as much cooler air is advected into the region.
This is in response to the weakening upper level ridge over the eastern half of the state. The gradual destabilization of the overall H5 pattern as the main upper low to the northwest moves in, in conjunction with improved deep layer moisture, should bring decent rain chances mostly east of the I-35 corridor.
315 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016 High amplitude upper lvl ridge centered along the MS River Valley will drift slowly east into the lower OH Valley and Great Lakes region by the end of the short term.
Otherwise, warm temperatures and light west to northwest winds persist as high pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico drifts west.
246 PM MDT Thu Sep 22 2016 Upper ridge has shifted slightly eastward this afternoon as the upper low continues to deepen over the Four Corners area, generating fast southwesterly flow aloft over the forecast area. At the surface a large area of high pressure is centered over Manitoba with low pressure over Utah, Colorado and southwestern Wyoming. Tonight into Friday the upper low will eject quickly northward moving into western Wyoming on Friday afternoon. Temperatures will likely remain relatively cool over much of the area on Friday however much warmer temperatures are possible if the dry slot develops over parts of southwestern and especially south central SD.
An upper trough will gradually shift south of the region tonight for dry weather across all of Western Washington except a chance of showers in the mountains.
/issued 925 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016/ High pressure over the Western Atlantic waters will continue to strengthen today allowing for the easterly steering flow over South Florida to increase to around 6 knots.
Southwest to slight ridging remain at 500MB across the Northern Plains as a 500MB low moves across the Pacific Northwest. High pressure over southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba will keep a ridge extended over much of our area through tonight. Warmer air and breezy east to southeasterly winds will surge in Friday into Friday night as a warm front crosses. With some improved mixing as the lower clouds exit, we could mix into the 30 to near 35kt 900MB winds. The low level jet will strengthen Friday night to 40-45kts above the inversion.
Weak circulation can be seen amongst isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon in association with the weak coastal low/trough that has pushed inland into South Texas today. The upper level ridge that had been over much of the state will further lose its hold over the region as the deep upper level trough swings over the Rockies. Warm conditions will persist with highs in the low to mid 90s across the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads and in the mid to upper 90s further west.
1244 PM MDT THU SEP 22 2016 General clearing will continue this afternoon along the western fringes of an area of retreating high pressure. A large upper low will approach the CWA overnight and into Friday. For Friday, we will see temperatures soar once more into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees with a sharp drop toward the afternoon as much cooler air is advected into the region.
434 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016 Upper level heights are starting to fall this afternoon in response to a large upper level trough moving across northwestern Nevada. By Friday, the center of the upper level low remains across Utah and at the surface a leeside trough continues to deepen.
Nam forecasts a 500 mb ridge over the plains with a closed 500 mb low and trough over the central and southern Rockies 12z Fri. This ridge moves into the upper Great Lakes 12z Sat and remains over the area into 12z Sun while the 500 mb trough and low move northeast into the northern Plains. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge on the west coast, a trough in the northern plains and a ridge in the Great Lakes and sern U. This trough moves slowly east 12z Mon with it starting to affect the upper Great Lakes.
/issued 1044 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2016/ A little drier air has moved into the northern half of the area with weak troughing over the state. Light winds and seas with a weak trough in place across the area today. Ridging will build in from the north through the weekend.
1216 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016 Persistent upper-level ridge remains centered across the Red River Valley this morning with broad west-southwest flow prevailing over the Central Plains and lower Missouri Valley.
301 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 Weak low pressure will continue to meander south of the area through Friday before dissipating. Weak high pressure will build in from the north late week.