Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
812 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019 High pressure will slide east of the region today followed by a strong front will move through on Wednesday. Cooler and blustery weather will follow for the latter half of the work week. A generally light wind early will turn to the south as the high pressure area shifts off the coast. A potent occlusion/cold front will be approaching the region, with the first showers likely reaching our western zones before sunrise Wednesday.
539 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 An upper level trough is currently diving south across the northern Plains with a cold front extending from IA to northern KS. The cold front will continue to sweep south moving into the northern parts of the cwfa late this morning and then across the rest of the area this afternoon. Deep layer shear will increase across the area as the upper trough approaches the region.
909 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019 Low level SE/S flow will continue around the Atlantic ridge this afternoon with an increase in mid and high level moisture especially across northern sections.
Nice Fall days are expected both today and Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure continues to build over the Northern Rockies. Some valleys across west-central Montana may even approach 70 degrees, while the lowest valleys of north- central Idaho will reach the mid 70s.
823 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019 Dry, seasonable weather will continue until a cold front brings showers and breezy conditions to the region on Wednesday. Eastward moving high pressure will remain in control today. This will result in plenty of sunshine and warmer temperatures. As a cold front approaches from the west, breezy conditions are expected to evolve as a tight pressure gradient builds. An inflation in shower intensity looks likely, as dawn approaches, due to coupling between the lower and upper level jets. This interaction will keep the higher rainfall rates going as the front crosses the rest of the region. An area of showers, associated with the trough axis and a secondary front, will move down from the northwest early Wednesday evening.
09Z surface analysis shows two distinct low pressure systems over the Plains. These two lows are expected to traverse eastward this afternoon and swing a cold front through the Mid-South this evening. Ahead of the cold front, a weak warm front is expected to lift into north Mississippi by this afternoon. A brief lull in shower activity is expected by this afternoon, before the main cold front pushes in from the northwest after sundown. The front and trof will quickly push east of the area by Wednesday morning, with a return to clear skies and dry conditions through the end of the workweek.
Locally heavy rainfall wl rmn a concern, but it still appears the highest amts wl rmn just S of our FA. Cooler and drier air wl advect into the region and persist thru Wed.
Ridging flattens by Tuesday evening, curtailing any warmup. Flattened ridge opens the door for some downslop flow and lee trof development overnight. Shallow ridging redevelops by Wednesday morning, bringing much warmer temps to the area, with highs climbing to around 70 degrees in most locations.
Deepening upper low over the Upper Midwest will push into the Great Lakes tonight, and push a cold front into the Ohio Valley.
High temperatures will run slightly warmer than normal through Wednesday.
621 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 A cold front across the northern Panhandle at press time will move quickly southward and past the terminals mid-morning.
414 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 Temperatures will be cooler behind the cold front today and a gusty northwest wind will also make it feel noticably cooler. Highs will only be in the 50s across southern Nebraska to the lower 60s over northern Kansas as cooler air advects into the region. It should be noted that another sub-freezing night is expected with lows ranging from the mid to upper 20s in Ord to around 32 across north central Kansas.
650 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 Temperatures will be cooler behind the cold front today and a gusty northwest wind will also make it feel noticably cooler. Highs will only be in the 50s across southern Nebraska to the lower 60s over northern Kansas as cooler air advects into the region. It should be noted that another sub-freezing night is expected with lows ranging from the mid to upper 20s in Ord to around 32 across north central Kansas.
627 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 Updated temperatures and p-types to mention slightly warmer conditions across the region. Temperatures have remained above freezing at nearly all locations overnight with ptype of rain being reported at all observation sites experiencing precip. Continued cooler than average temperatures prevail today and Wednesday with highs today in the 40s and lows tonight ranging from the upper 20s to lower 30s, but will be dependent upon cloud cover.
Bulk of the ongoing rainfall is expected to rmn confined to the south half of the FA this mrng as a warm front to the S of AR lifts sloly NWD. Locally heavy rainfall wl rmn a concern, but it still appears the highest amts wl rmn just S of our FA. Cooler and drier air wl advect into the region and persist thru Wed.
406 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 An upper level trough is currently diving south across the northern Plains with a cold front extending from IA to northern KS. The cold front will continue to sweep south moving into the northern parts of the cwfa late this morning and then across the rest of the area this afternoon. Deep layer shear will increase across the area as the upper trough approaches the region.
345 AM MDT Tue Oct 15 2019 Upper ridging over the western U. will help guide warmer and drier weather conditions across the region, including NE Montana over the next few days.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along a cold front this afternoon and early evening, potentially affecting the southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas sites. Upper trough axis will push the front into NE OK later this morning/early afternoon, then through the remainder of the area later this afternoon.
Best precipitation chances areawide will come with the cold front to the west as it moves through the forecast area early Wednesday. Moisture will continue to advect into the region (ahead of a cold front) from the w/sw this morning and through the day with sky cover gradually increasing from the top down. Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 59 69 42 67 / 30 50 40 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 77 58 66 42 63 / 10 60 60 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 76 55 64 41 62 / 20 60 60 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 77 53 63 39 58 / 0 60 60 0 0.
These will form ahead of a cold front that will pass across the area. In addition, this cold front will bring gusty north winds to the region as well. /issued 426 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019/ (Today and Tonight) A fairly warm day is in store for today before another cold front passes through the area. In fact, this cold front is expected to move through during the evening hours and into tonight.
1022 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019 Water vapor imagery highlights a mean layer ridge over the Gulf of Mexico which measured 592 dm at 500 mb on the 12Z KKEY RAOB. High pressure persists over the eastern United States and Florida, which supports moderate easterly breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. Temperatures are in the mid 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. High pressure over the western North Atlantic will maintain gentle to moderate easterly breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys this afternoon.
Moisture will continue to advect into the region (ahead of a cold front) from the w/sw this morning and through the day with sky cover gradually increasing from the top down.
228 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 Strong, deeply mixed gradient winds are found over most of the areas of 2 PM, as the cold front is exiting the eastern counties. Wednesday looks to be a typical post cold front day under stratus supported by cold cyclonic flow aloft.
A cold front will pass through the area tonight. In the wake of this front, high pressure will build into the area for the latter parts of the week. Cold front currently moving through western Illinois at this time. Model data suggest the front should be east of the area by sunrise, so precipitation threat should be over by then Cold advection behind the front looks rather strong, given the low level thicknesses progged by the models by morning, so will shave a category off of the GFs MOS lows tonight.
248 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 Cold front associated with a northern branch upper wave had cleared Kansas as of 19Z with clearing stratus line not far behind. There is some potential for the northwest stratus to reach northeastern Kansas Wednesday with some stratocu likely developing as diurnal boundary layer lapse rates steep mixing in the afternoon with a cooler airmass keeping highs in the mid 50s to around 60. Focus for these periods is on two upper troughs working their way east across the CONUS.
100 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019 Cold front crosses late tonight/Wednesday. High pressure for the end of the work week and into the weekend. High pressure is slowly losing its grip on the region this afternoon as winds begin shifting around to the south on the back edge of the high. These southerly winds will begin pushing moisture and clouds in late today and tonight, with a cold front moving its way across Ohio and Kentucky. The cold front will reach the Ohio River around 12Z. The cold front will quickly continue its march eastward, making it through the mountains by late morning.
1237 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 An upper level trough is currently diving south across the northern Plains with a cold front extending from IA to northern KS. The cold front will continue to sweep south moving into the northern parts of the cwfa late this morning and then across the rest of the area this afternoon. Deep layer shear will increase across the area as the upper trough approaches the region.
At 3 PM, a broad upper level trough was swirling over the Upper Midwest, helping to produce a large area of low to mid level stratus over the Dakotas, Minnesota, northern Iowa and northeast Nebraska.
Ridge of high pressure moves in Wednesday night for clearing skies and lows dipping down into the lower/middle 30s.
257 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 Progressive upper trough swinging southeastward through the northern Plains is helping drive a cold front southward into our area today.
149 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 Warm front centered over Birmingham continues to move northward this afternoon. Rain lingers through the evening into the overnight hours until a cold front out crosses Northern Alabama by sunrise Wednesday. Temperatures remain on the cooler side post frontal passage with afternoon highs both Wed and Thu in the mid to upper 60s, which is 5-10 degrees below climatological normals. As high pressure builds in on Wed, the most impactful weather will be winds gusting 15-20 mph in the afternoon.
1235 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 Main focus for today will be associated with a cold front - currently located across southeast Nebraska. Even with ample sun, cold air advection will bring in cooler readings this afternoon with highs in the upper 50s to middle 60s. There is some chance for clouds to move back into the region overnight as the upper low grazes the area on its way out.
The second weather maker is a cold front moving rapidly south from the Midwest. Heaviest rainfall from this cold front should be across portions of west Tennessee.
Mid/upper level trough will deepen and move across the eastern U.
Otherwise, a cold front will sweep across our area later this afternoon and into the evening. These will form ahead of a cold front that will pass across the area. In addition, this cold front will bring gusty north winds to the region as well. /issued 426 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019/ (Today and Tonight) A fairly warm day is in store for today before another cold front passes through the area. In fact, this cold front is expected to move through during the evening hours and into tonight.
A period of drier and eventually warmer weather is expected with ridging developing for the northern plains.
1233 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 Temperatures will be cooler behind the cold front today and a gusty northwest wind will also make it feel noticably cooler. Highs will only be in the 50s across southern Nebraska to the lower 60s over northern Kansas as cooler air advects into the region. It should be noted that another sub-freezing night is expected with lows ranging from the mid to upper 20s in Ord to around 32 across north central Kansas.
Rain and the front should move through pretty quickly overnight as the upper trough swings eastward very quickly.
Cold front is making steady progress southeast, with pre-frontal wind shift noted at KTUL/KRVS. Latest surface analysis shows cold front is just about the enter Osage/Pawnee counties with the north winds preceding the front. Cold front should make it to the Interstate 40 corridor by early afternoon and into southeast Oklahoma by mid/late afternoon.
218 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 A cold front will make its way across the Ozarks through this afternoon. Current observations place the cold front from just north of Joplin to the Lake of the Ozarks and northeast to just north of St. The low level shear was rather limited however though there was some good upper level jet support with a 115kt jet at 250mb over the area. As a result of the marginal ingredients in place ahead of the cold front, SPC has areas south of I-44 in a Marginal Risk for damaging winds up to 60mph and isolated hail to quarter size. An upper level ridge will slide across the plains and over the Ozarks for the later half of the week before sliding east of the Ozarks by the weekend.
After cooler temperatures tomorrow (Wednesday), post cold front, temperatures will warm back up, with highs in the 60s and 70s through the weekend.
Latest surface analysis shows cold front is just about the enter Osage/Pawnee counties with the north winds preceding the front. Cold front should make it to the Interstate 40 corridor by early afternoon and into southeast Oklahoma by mid/late afternoon.
236 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019 Water vapor imagery highlights a mean layer ridge over the Gulf of Mexico which measured 592 dm at 500 mb on this morning's KKEY RAOB. High pressure persists over the eastern United States and Florida, which supports moderate easterly breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. The low level ridge axis will cede territory to the developing storm system over the east, and will be across the Keys Wednesday morning. On Wednesday and Wednesday night, a short wave over Texas will battle the mean-layer ridge over the Gulf, shoving it to the southeast to near Cuba.
313 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 The gusty northwest winds will continue through the rest of the afternoon, but should quickly diminish this evening as mixing decreases and high pressure slides in from the north. The entire area should see freezing temperatures and some may drop as low as the mid 20s. Wednesday will only be a couple degrees warmer than today as high presure slowly shifts to the east. As a result Wednesday night's lows are forecast to remain above freezing.
Otherwise, our attention turns to the cold front currently situated just north and west of the CWA. It will feel much more like fall with highs only in the lower to mid 70s.
Within the low level moist layer, where breaks in the overcast have become established, a few showers are trying to form as there are decent low level lapse rates and weak vertical motion per RAP BUFKIT soundings. Increased upward vertical motion will initially allow some drier air aloft to mix through the low level moist column/below 5kft, but at the same time will also allow an inversion to develop near the ground given the snow cover and high moisture. Highs Wednesday will range from the lower 60s west to the colder mid 30s in the Turtle Mountains with deeper snowpack.
231 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 Showers continue in the Big Bend and lower Trans Pecos this afternoon but a cold front entering the Permian Basin will bring drier air and an end to the rain tonight. Surface observations show the cold front is approaching the I-20 corridor and though not strong, will at least bring temperatures back down to near normal for a day or two before the warmth returns. An upper low will cut off over West Texas briefly before ejecting off to the east but a lack of moisture will prohibit any rainfall.
A cold front approaching from the NW will help focus some of this moisture by this evening, with showers and low ceilings developing.
310 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 Cold front currently along the Interstate 44 corridor through NE OK will sweep southward and clear the forecast area later tonight. Pre-frontal wind shift and ill defined warm frontal zone mark the more clear warm sector conditions across south central OK through far SE OK. Further north the airmass preceding the cold front does support some severe potential but to a lesser degree.
1211 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 Cold front is now through all terminals, creating bumpy take off/landing conditions.
252 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 A weak, dry cold front has moved through the majority of the county warning area (CWA). Temperatures will fall into the lower and middle 40s tonight across the CWA, as clear skies and light winds will enhance radiative cooling effects.
Best precipitation chances areawide will come with the cold front to the west as it moves through the forecast area early Wednesday. MA Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 69 42 67 43 / 80 50 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 66 42 63 40 / 80 70 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 55 64 41 62 40 / 80 50 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 63 39 58 36 / 80 80 0 0 0.
141 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019 Dry, seasonable weather will continue until a cold front brings showers and breezy conditions to the region on Wednesday. Eastward moving high pressure will remain in control today. This will result in plenty of sunshine and warmer temperatures. As a cold front approaches from the west, breezy conditions are expected to evolve as a tight pressure gradient builds. An inflation in shower intensity looks likely, as dawn approaches, due to coupling between the lower and upper level jets. This interaction will keep the higher rainfall rates going as the front crosses the rest of the region. An area of showers, associated with the trough axis and a secondary front, will move down from the northwest early Wednesday evening.
A cold front is forecast to move across the area on Wednesday with rain/shower chances ending along with increased winds bringing in drier air through Wednesday night. Temperatures will be cooling off significantly Wednesday night behind the cold front into the upper 30s and 40s for much of the area.
After this time, increase lift ahead of the approaching cold front will generate numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the cold front.
242 PM PDT Tue Oct 15 2019 Dry and mild weather today with temperatures close to average, then cooler for the second half of the week.
A transient ridge will pass overhead tonight which will keep skies clear. The very dry air under the ridge will allow strong surface radiational cooling which will cause overnight lows to fall several degrees below seasonal norms. Winds aloft shift to the southwest on Wednesday as a trough approaches the West Coast.
A cold front is currently making its way through west Texas and southeastern New Mexico. /issued 231 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019/ Showers continue in the Big Bend and lower Trans Pecos this afternoon but a cold front entering the Permian Basin will bring drier air and an end to the rain tonight. Surface observations show the cold front is approaching the I-20 corridor and though not strong, will at least bring temperatures back down to near normal for a day or two before the warmth returns. An upper low will cut off over West Texas briefly before ejecting off to the east but a lack of moisture will prohibit any rainfall.
Cold front continues pushing south early this evening, currently located near a KMLC/KFYV line. /Issued 310 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019/ Cold front currently along the Interstate 44 corridor through NE OK will sweep southward and clear the forecast area later tonight. Pre-frontal wind shift and ill defined warm frontal zone mark the more clear warm sector conditions across south central OK through far SE OK. Further north the airmass preceding the cold front does support some severe potential but to a lesser degree.
Warm front centered over Birmingham continues to move northward this afternoon. Rain lingers through the evening into the overnight hours until a cold front out crosses Northern Alabama by sunrise Wednesday. Temperatures remain on the cooler side post frontal passage with afternoon highs both Wed and Thu in the mid to upper 60s, which is 5-10 degrees below climatological normals. As high pressure builds in on Wed, the most impactful weather will be winds gusting 15-20 mph in the afternoon.
Showers will continue ahead of the front with low ceilings and visibilities at times, and thunderstorms will be along the cold front as it moves through the state overnight.
/issued 252 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019/ A weak, dry cold front has moved through the majority of the county warning area (CWA). Temperatures will fall into the lower and middle 40s tonight across the CWA, as clear skies and light winds will enhance radiative cooling effects.
Strong, deeply mixed gradient winds are found over most of the areas of 2 PM, as the cold front is exiting the eastern counties. Wednesday looks to be a typical post cold front day under stratus supported by cold cyclonic flow aloft.
618 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 The gusty northwest winds will continue through the rest of the afternoon, but should quickly diminish this evening as mixing decreases and high pressure slides in from the north. The entire area should see freezing temperatures and some may drop as low as the mid 20s. Wednesday will only be a couple degrees warmer than today as high presure slowly shifts to the east. As a result Wednesday night's lows are forecast to remain above freezing.
Cold front associated with a northern branch upper wave had cleared Kansas as of 19Z with clearing stratus line not far behind. There is some potential for the northwest stratus to reach northeastern Kansas Wednesday with some stratocu likely developing as diurnal boundary layer lapse rates steep mixing in the afternoon with a cooler airmass keeping highs in the mid 50s to around 60. Focus for these periods is on two upper troughs working their way east across the CONUS.
Earlier supercell/multi-cell activity has been undercut by the cold front, with significant weakening and decrease in coverage noted over the past 1-2 hours.
636 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 A cold front will make its way across the Ozarks through this afternoon. Current observations place the cold front from just north of Joplin to the Lake of the Ozarks and northeast to just north of St. The low level shear was rather limited however though there was some good upper level jet support with a 115kt jet at 250mb over the area. As a result of the marginal ingredients in place ahead of the cold front, SPC has areas south of I-44 in a Marginal Risk for damaging winds up to 60mph and isolated hail to quarter size. An upper level ridge will slide across the plains and over the Ozarks for the later half of the week before sliding east of the Ozarks by the weekend.
A cold front will pass through the area tonight. In the wake of this front, high pressure will build into the area for the latter parts of the week. Pulled PoPs the rest of the night far northwest based on radar and cold frontal passage. Cold front currently moving through western Illinois at this time. Model data suggest the front should be east of the area by sunrise, so precipitation threat should be over by then Cold advection behind the front looks rather strong, given the low level thicknesses progged by the models by morning, so will shave a category off of the GFs MOS lows tonight.
Mid-level warm advection will overspread the area tonight as the upper ridge builds to the west of the forecast area.