Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper level low pressure system will track into Great Lakes region tonight while an associated front trailing into far south central Missouri sags southward. As we head through the remainder of the week the upper level low over the Great Lakes will exit off to the east while upper level ridges remain positioned off the southeast U. In between the remnants to Harvey which will meander northward and northeastward around the southeastern ridge.
A very hot weather pattern is expected across the Mojave Desert Region much of this week as high pressure parks over southern Nevada and surrounding states. Limited moisture circulating around the area of high pressure will lead to isolated showers or thunderstorms over the mountains each afternoon.
We should see an erosion of the low level dry air, with better rain chances farther north and east in the CWA.
High pressure aloft will remain across the Great Basin early this week, allowing for very warm and generally dry conditions.
1122 AM MDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Upper-level ridging will continue to build through mid-week across the central Rockies. A few afternoon thunderstorms are possible on Tue & Wed as the models do show some weak midlevel energy traversing the flow along the edge of the ridge and easterly surface winds likely helping keep low-level moisture in place with dew points in the 45 to 55 degree range over the high plains.
Otherwise, Canadian high pressure settling south across Mid- America in concert with dry northwest flow will support dry and benign weather most of this week. Proximity of the high pressure will support relatively light winds.
Circulation around this low and associated trough was still producing isolated showers over portions of central Upper Mi early this morning. With sfc ridging building in fm the north, expect some patchy fog to develop later tonight.
Strong high pressure over the region today with persistent hot and dry conditions. Areas of smoke from western wildfires seemed to be collecting across our CWA which may shave a few degrees off the highs today.
The Ohio Valley will be located between a closed upper low in the Western Great Lakes and a developing tropical system off the Carolina coast. Subsidence between these two troughs will suppress the ewd development of showers that have formed this morning in the unstable air mass shown in the 12UTC KILN RAOB. PoPs were increased west of a line from KPHD to Cambridge, in line with current observation and hi-resolution model depiction. Otherwise, increasing clouds and below-normal temperature should continue amid broad troughing in the ern CONUS. Higher PoPs were continued in the ridges, but downsloping flow in the lee will aid in the erosion of precipitation farther wwd.
214 PM MDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Quiet weather over the CWA this afternoon and this will continue overnight with mainly clear skies as an upper high maintains its influence over the region. The upper high centered over the Nevada/Utah area will move little through Weds with the CWA under a generally northwesterly upper flow. Southerly winds over the high plains will bring a little more moisture across the CWA over the next couple days and with a couple weak impulses expected to pass by the area we should see isolated afternoon and evening showers and tstms mainly around the mtns into the adjacent high plains the next couple days.
A highly amplified ridge is over the western half of the CONUS with a trough over the Great Lakes. Light winds are expected throughout the day with highs in the low to mid 80s. The main upper level pattern does little to change through the forecast with a strong ridge over the west and a series of disturbances moving into the trough over the east. Energy associated with this disturbance will slide eastward across the top of the ridge over the west and bring a front towards Nebraska. The next best chance for a change in the weather pattern/cold frontal passage is beyond this 7 day forecast.
Overnight temperatures will be cooler, with clear skies and lighter winds.
An upper low will track across the southern Great Lakes with troughing extending into the Mid-South. A weak cold front will slowly track across the Mid-South today and tonight then stall and weaken further on Tuesday. Temps should be a couple of degrees cooler with more clouds and precip. Activity should diminish in the evening with loss of heating and the upper trough starting to pull east. Should see less activity on Tuesday as the upper trough continues to pull away. Temps will be couple of degrees warmer.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis indicated a weak area of low pressure over southeast WI. An inverted trough extended northward through east-central WI into the western U. A weak ridge of high pressure was located from northern MN southwest into the central Plains. Meanwhile, the ridge of high pressure will push into the western Great Lakes overnight. Despite the weak high pressure in our vicinity on Tuesday, northeast WI remains in a weak cyclonic flow in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. Max temperatures will range from the lower to middle 70s north/lakeshore, middle 70s south. A period of fog and stratus may develop across part of the area late Tuesday night, but should be brief as a cold front approaches the area form the north.
302 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Currently - As lower level ridge has lifted northwards across the Florida Keys and Straits. Forecast - The previously mentioned ridge will continue to slide slowly northwards over the next couple of days. By around mid week, pops will edge upwards to near normal as the lower level ridge axis shifts northwards into central Florida, both carrying higher PWATs and slightly stronger surface winds across the Florida Keys. A ridge across the Florida Keys area will remain light, mostly south, with afternoon and evening directional variability.
Moisture will decrease across Okeechobee/Treasure coast as the Atlantic ridge axis builds back in across the southern peninsula, so 30 percent PoPs or less look warranted there. The axis of the Atlantic high pressure ridge is forecast to continue migrating slowly northward, reaching central Florida and maybe even into north Florida by the holiday weekend. A high pressure ridge aloft is forecast to build into the area which should produce above normal temperatures with mid 90s interior and low 90s coast, so it looks like a hot holiday weekend. Low pressure near the southeast Georgia coast is progged to lift northeast. The latest GFS shows deepening of the low as this occurs, but the pressure gradient should gradually decrease across our waters. The Atlantic ridge axis will migrate from the south peninsula early in the week to north Florida late in the week.
Benign summer weather will prevail through midweek as a ridge of high pressure remains overhead. Residual moisture will continue to be recycled each afternoon and allow for isolated showers and thunderstorms to persist over the higher terrain today and tomorrow. Temperatures will continue to warm under the high and run some 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal for this time of year.
318 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Winds today ended up being stronger than forecast across central SD, so have been adjusting wind grids towards the latest HRRR runs which have been doing a good job capturing the higher winds. Once again lowered ABR cooler than guidance as winds will likely drop to around 5 knots or less towards sunrise. The upper flow will be dominated by a 4 corners high, with an eastern CONUS trough and thus mainly northwest flow aloft. There is a subtle ridge axis overhead so subsidence can be expected for most of the extended. There is a brief period where an upper trough passes across the northern tier of the CONUS that will briefly suppress the ridge, resulting in a short period with a chance for precipitation.
247 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Dry and warm weather will continue through Tuesday afternoon and beyond as the region remains under the influence of ridging aloft. At the surface, broad low pressure will remain centered in eastern MT through Tuesday. This reflects an air mass which will be slightly warmer than that observed today. The net effect of this will be a slightly warmer day with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s F over a more widespread area. We generally relied on the 12 UTC multi-model consensus to build the short term forecast, though we leaned on the slightly cooler edge of guidance for lows tonight given recent overnight diurnal cooling trends, and the pre-existing dry air mass.
On the synoptic scale, low/mid level ridging will build into the Upper Midwest today with a broad area of high pressure developing over western Lake Superior south to the eastern Great Plains by Tuesday. However, by Tuesday this clearing should make its way across most of the Northland with warmer temperatures resulting from the sunshine and southerly flow developing at low levels.
An upper low along with a weak surface front will continue rain chances in central Indiana through Tuesday afternoon.
An upper low along with a weak surface front will bring rain chances to central Indiana through Tuesday evening.
340 PM MDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Benign summer weather will prevail through midweek as a ridge of high pressure remains overhead. Residual moisture will continue to be recycled each afternoon and allow for isolated showers and thunderstorms to persist over the higher terrain today and tomorrow. Temperatures will continue to warm under the high and run some 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal for this time of year.
309 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Benign weather pattern for the forecast area for the next several days due to strong ridge located over 4 corners next several days.
With Harvey moving back out over the Gulf of Mexico, it should easily maintain TS strength and possibly even reintensify slightly over the next 48 hours while out over warmer Gulf waters.
229 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 A ridge of high pressure will remain over Pennsylvania through tonight.
With that, temperatures will be a touch warmer today over south central SD and the western James River Valley, topping out in the mid 80s. For tonight, our area remains under the influence of high pressure.
140 PM MDT Mon Aug 28 2017 A broad upper ridge covers the western 2/3 of the country, with a low over the Great Lakes region. The ridge will keep weather mostly dry for the next couple days.
Some thunderstorms now at this hour in south- central Wisconsin and down into northern Illinois under the upper low/cold pool aloft. Upper low will slowly migrate across southern lower Michigan tonight and across southern lower Michigan on Tuesday.
1121 AM MDT Mon Aug 28 2017 An upper level ridge will remain centered over the Great Basin today and tonight, with limited moisture being over southern CO. However, there will still be enough moisture over the area that with the daytime heating, there should be at least isolated showers/tstms over and near the higher terrain this afternoon and evening. Temps today will be a little cooler, but will be close to average. Overnight temps should be around to a little above average, with lows mostly in the mid to upper 50s over the southeast plains, and in the mid 40s to around 50 in the high valleys.
Subsident air in the adequate easterly flow across the higher terrain should be able to keep vfr flight operations going throughout the valid forecast period.
438 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Much drier air has invaded the OK and TX Panhandles today in the wake of the most recent cold frontal passage. An upper level ridge of high pressure is forecast to anchor itself over much of the western states through next Monday while an upper level trof develops across the eastern states. Consequently, our forecast area will be in predominately northerly to even northeasterly flow aloft around the eastern periphery of this upper level ridge of high pressure.
The low level strato-cumulus resulting from the low level convergence this afternoon is expected to dissipate this evening. Quiet conditions expected overnight, with lows falling into the lower to mid 70s.
1140 AM MDT Mon Aug 28 2017 18Z TAF CYCLE Lcl MVFR cigs from vcnty KCAO-KTCC thinning out as the low cloud deck advects wwd, and cld hgts should slowly lift with afternoon heating.
1031 AM PDT Mon Aug 28 2017 High pressure will bring a warming trend with widespread temperatures in the 90s into Tuesday.
312 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017 WV imagery this afternoon was revealing a large upper level high pressure dome situated over the western half of the CONUS. upper low pressure was centered just south of the western Great Lakes and embedded in a longwave trof extending southward to the southeastern states. high pressure was in control across the central Plains.
55 A cold front will drop south into the state today.
Rather quiet and pleasant weather will follow for the remainder of the week as dry northerly flow aloft remains in control of the weather locally downstream of an expansive upper ridge across the western states. An upper trough topping the western ridge should finally help to lift what remains of Harvey northeastward by late week into the weekend.
/issued 249 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017/ Drier air continues to filter into the region behind cold front which will yield pleasantly cool night tonight with widespread 50s expected.
249 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Drier air continues to filter into the region behind cold front which will yield pleasantly cool night tonight with widespread 50s expected.
112 PM MDT Mon Aug 28 2017 High pressure will persist over the area the next few days.
1216 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Surface ridging will continue to build in from the north today while an upper trough maintains its hold over the Great Lakes.
Gusty easterly winds were occurring area wide this afternoon with a few mountain spots, that are susceptible to these type of winds, recording gusts over 50 mph while at the lower elevations the gusts have mostly been in the 20 to 35 mph range. Moderate east-northeast flow aloft around a strong upper high centered over southern Utah will allow isolated thunderstorms developing over the Mogollon Rim and their associated outflow boundaries to propagate southwest across the area. Easterly flow aloft will continue across the area thru the remainder of the week as the Great basin upper high gradually sags south across northern Arizona as a weather system pushes through the Pacific NW later this week.
355 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: Potential Tropical Cyclone 10 continues to move to the northeast off the Georgia/SC coast, leaving a trailing trough across the central Florida peninsula. Ridging has begun to build in from the east across South Florida today, as evident on this morning's sounding which came in with a PWAT of only 1.
Upper low over northern Wisconsin this morning, while the upper ridge remains firmly in place over the western US and Harvey continues over the Texas coast. Upper low over northern Wisconsin this morning will be the main weather-maker for our area through the short term. As the low drops south into Illinois today, convection is expected to regenerate across much of the area. For Tuesday, an upper level low will exit to the east with a few showers and afternoon thunderstorms lingering across far northwest Illinois.
212 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Dry and cool weather will continue as high pressure remains in control.
Highs today will be capped in the lower 70s northeast to mid to upper 70s south. Lows tonight in the lower 50s north to the upper 50s southeast.
225 PM PDT Mon Aug 28 2017 High pressure will bring a warming trend with widespread temperatures in the 90s into Tuesday.
A closed upper low continues to rotate into the Great Lakes region with a large upper level ridge centered over the intermountain west. In between, our area sits in northerly/northwesterly flow aloft and high pressure at the surface. Relatively quiet forecast as upper ridge across the western US expand as trough over the Great Lakes Region shift to the east.
Current temp trends along with expected mocldy to cldy skies warrants the lowering of afternoon high temp values by a few degrees.
345 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Quiet weather will prevail through Monday as high pressure controls the weather.
With an upper low centered over Wisconsin and pieces of energy rotating around it, scattered showers are expected to develop during peak heating. Further northwest, light northerly winds on the back side of the trough will provide enough mixing to prevent fog development. The upper low will shift into Michigan on Tuesday: however, it will remain close enough to warrant a low chance PoP across the E/SE CWA during the afternoon.
08Z WV imagery showing northwest flow in place around pronounced western CONUS ridge. This will leave a pleasant day in store with continued drying as a strong persistent high pressure ridge expands into the area. Models are still in agreement with keeping an upper ridge to the west of the central plains with upper troughs moving across the Great Lakes and northeast. Weak surface ridging is progged to remain over the area through mid week keeping relatively dry air over the region.
306 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017 A few isolated weak, transient storms have developed along an instability axis and near the midlevel trough axis associated with a deep upper low currently evident over southern WI. This elevated boundary will continue to drift south but will also pull eastward as the upper low departs to the east, focusing any additional pop-up storms mainly along the southeastern boundary of the forecast area.
Upper air plot this morning showed a strong upper high centered over southern Utah with expansive ridge across the Western CONUS. At the lower elevations the easterly gradient has increased over the past 24 hours which will lead to gusty easterly surface winds today. The downsloping winds may help in bringing warmer high temperatures than currently forecast, which are already forecast to be 4-6 degrees above late August normals.
242 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017 This morning, an upper level low pressure system was situated over southern Wisconsin. This upper level low will rotate southeast and then east over the next 24 hours, reaching Lake Huron/Erie by Tuesday afternoon. Today, most of the moisture is mid level, but with time, the lower levels really moisten up.
337 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 A mid level vort max moving northeast across Kentucky ahead of an approaching mid level trough has given enough forcing this afternoon to yield widespread showers across most of eastern Kentucky. Focus for showers will shift back to the northwest with the mid level trough overnight, leaving eastern Kentucky mainly dry. Mid level trough will dampen as it moves east and get absorbed by the tropical system moving up the east coast.
Otherwise, things look pretty benign today and tonight as an upper-level ridge remains in place over most of the Great Plains. The latest models remain consistent with their forecast of a western conus ridge, and eastern/northeastern conus trof.
These funnel clouds can form with passing cores of 500 mb closed lows.
202 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 An upper level low will approach and slowly move across the region today into Tuesday bringing multiple rounds of showers and storms.
An expansive mid-tropospheric ridge encompasses much of the western U. while a closed low tracks through the Great Lakes and Tropical Storm Harvey hugs the Texas coast toward Louisiana and a tropical system near South Carolina.
Dry conditions continue through midweek as high pressure remains over the area.
19Z water vapor loop shows a pesky upper low spinning along the WI/IL border, resulting in widespread cloud cover across the forecast area. Although the upper low will move into the lower Great Lakes region tomorrow, cloud cover will still be tricky.
Midlevel clouds in eastcentral and southeast ND will continue slow drift to the south-southeast as H7-H5 ridging builds in aloft. Upper level ridge remains over the western US. Upper ridge will shift into the western Dakotas by Wed night. Upper level trough over WI will move away from the area. Another upper level trough over the Northwest Territories will move into eastern Canada and amplify by Wed. System will bring a cold front to the forecast area Tue night into Wed.
Before that, we have an upper low over the great lakes that is moving towards the east, and providing enough lift for showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon. As the trough slides further eastward, chances for precip should let up overnight tonight into Tuesday morning with only northwest zones having schc pops. The upper trough will lift a little northward during the day on Tuesday as it moves east, so expecting the higher precip chances to be confined mainly around I-40 and northward, but there may be some activity further south as well.
1110 AM MDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Strong upper ridging continues across the western CONUS this morning with northwest flow aloft across the Dakotas. high pressure is centered across East River and moving eastward toward the MS valley. Highs will be a few degrees warmer today.
351 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 An upper level low will slowly rotate east across the southern Great Lakes tonight into Tuesday night, which will continue the threat for showers and thunderstorms. The center of a closed upper level low over northern Illinois will rotate slowly east toward far srn Michigan/far nrn Indiana tonight. Have added some patchy fog to the forecast as models hint at a moistening of the low levels. Lows will mostly be in the lower 60s. The center of the upper level low is forecast to rotate slowly east across the southern Great Lakes Tuesday into Tuesday night. Precipitation threat will wane during Tuesday evening with the loss of heating and with the upper level low rotating away from the region. Lows Tuesday night will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
Cyclonic flow lingers into Tuesday, but the main trof axis should quickly push east of the forecast area, which will result in much lower diurnal coverage of precipitation than today.
317 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Low pressure will move slowly east across the Midwest tonight and Tuesday causing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.
Hot and mostly dry conditions continue on Tuesday as highs reach into the low to mid 90s for many valley locations.
328 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017 A broad H5 ridge stretching across the PACNW and most of the Northern Plains will persist through the early week period, with quite warm and dry air continuing to build into the western Dakotas while somewhat cool and moist air dips through western Ontario into eastern Minnesota.
251 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Vertically stacked low pressure system centered over northern IL/southern WI this afternoon evident on visible satellite imagery with its cloud shield extending west of MSP, with sunny skies west of a line from St. The western ridge retreats during the middle of the week and allows northwest flow to develop for the weekend.
351 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017 A weak cold front will slowly move southeast through the region tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through this evening along and ahead of the boundary with the aid of a series of vort maxes rotating through the area around the low pressure currently over the Great Lakes region. High pressure will build into the area Tuesday morning. By the end of the week, the remnants of Tropical Storm Harvey are forecast to have lifted northeastward out of Texas, but there remains a fair amount of model variability regarding how far northeastward, how quickly, and the degree of interaction (if any) between it and a trough axis moving out of Canada.
Strong high pressure across the region will continue through the week.
A high pressure ridge of hot air occupies most of the West. Highs will end up around 5F degrees cooler than Monday.
332 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 A large high pressure system continue to persist across the Northeast and the Canadian Maritimes.
Highs today will be cooler than yesterday due to cloud cover and weak low level cold air advection. GKS (Tuesday) High amplitude upper flow from the N continues with a strong RIDGE dominating the western CONUS.