Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Afternoon highs Thursday will warm quickly within the dry air from 85 to 90 degrees in the East, to the lower to middle 90s in the West. A building upper ridge will be the main feature of interest, and it should keep rain chances outside the perimeter of the CWA for the next several days. So despite hot afternoons, the lower humidity will keep heat index values very near the ambient temperatures, or even a couple degrees below.
Otherwise, winds will be light out of the south and with mostly sunny skies, warmer temperatures will build back into the region. Coupled with H500 ridging, southwesterly winds will increase during the afternoon hours. Along with WAA of H850 temperatures of 26-28C, high temperatures will range from the lower to upper 90s.
107 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2020 500mb RAP analysis and satellite imagery showed a strong low pressure system moving into eastern Kansas early this morning. Northwest flow developed aloft while a ridge amplified along the west coast. Today, the aforementioned low pressure system drifts further east towards the Great Lakes. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s, with upper ridging nudging into the Plains. On Thursday, the ridge continues to build towards the region and be the dominating feature.
209 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Pre frontal trough working across the Plateau at this time with isol/sct tstms that are below strong/severe limits. The cold frontal boundary is west of Nashville and there is some ongoing compressional warming along the I-65 corridor in advance of the front. The cooler air will continue to advect in with lows by morning generally around 60 degrees. Under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies, high temps will only reach the lower 80s, mid to upper 70s Plateau. Dewpoints in the lower 50s will make it feel very nice along with a 10-15 mph northerly wind.
A dry north to northwest flow will be in place through the column between high pressure amplifying northward from Texas, and low pressure digging over the eastern CONUS. High pressure building over the region will maintain a dry weather pattern.
The chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue for much of the week and into the weekend as a cold front moves into the area Thursday and stalls along the I-95 corridor. South to southwest flow aloft with upper ridge axis just off the coast. Went with guidance consensus for highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows tonight in the low to mid 70s. The cold front will be slowly moving through the area Thursday morning as it encounters the ridge of high pressure centered offshore. The upper level trough will lift over the ridge with the strongest winds aloft moving into the Northeast US.
815 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020 A well-defined cold front has reached the I-59 corridor as of 01Z, separating dew points in the m70s from u50-a60 just behind it. High pressure builds over the Southeast on Thursday, with weak northerly flow continuing to advect milder, drier air into the Tennessee Valley.
00Z TAF CYCLE Upper ridge building over NM. Moisture will be advecting into the ridge next 24 hours with high based showers and tstms with gusty winds developing aft 11/18Z mainly along and south of Interstate 40. After a brief cooldown, temperatures will begin to trend upward as high pressure builds over the area Wednesday afternoon.
Passing cold front now well east, and drier cooler air settling on the mid-state. Passage of a cold front has pushed SHRA east of the area. High pressure will move in with clear skies continuing throughout Thursday.
735 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 A cold front will support scattered thunderstorms this evening. Dry weather will return Thursday under building high pressure, with temperature returning to near average through the end of the week. Effective shear and instability will increase as the associated negatively tilted trough tracks east this evening and a line of storms capable of producing damaging wind will cross this evening ahead of the cold front. Dry conditions return on Thursday with building high pressure behind the front.
High pressure with dry weather will settle in tomorrow, leading to a stretch of pleasant weather across the region. Radar indicating some weak echoes are entering western Indiana at this time, associated with the upper trough. Slightly cooler temperatures are still sitting on the western state line, which will continue eastward across the state overnight. Much cooler temperatures will move in tonight compared to the past couple of evenings, with lows in the upper 50s.
844 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Scattered light rain showers remain possible until early this evening north of I-72 as an upper level low continues to affect the area.
Clear skies should prevail for the remainder of the night, with light northerly winds around the periphery of high pressure centered over the southern plains. /issued 258 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020/ Clouds associated with an upper trof are continuing to spread into the Mid-South at this time. Highs will be in the lower 80s with low humidity. An upper level trof will begin to dig over the Ohio Valley as an upper ridge builds over the Southern Plains.
/issued 159 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020/ A persistent upper ridge will maintain a quiescent weather pattern across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas the next seven days.
Expect MVFR/IFR cigs through 01-02z at all the terminals SHRA continues behind a cold front. Forecast confidence is high Band of rain showers and thunderstorms will continue to pull to the east as an upper level closed low propagates east across southern Lake Michigan. 19z RAP analysis shows some instability of 1000-1500 J/kg still in southeast Wisconsin to work on, but this will diminish over the next few hours as the cold front pushes through from the west. 0-6km effective wind shear is also decreasing as the better mid level winds push east ahead of the mid level trough.
822 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Anomalous upper low continues to move east across the mid Mississippi valley while ridging builds across the Great Basin and portions of the northern Rockies. Height rises noted on morning UA plots along the High Plains. In the wake of the system, anomalously low precipitable water values noted on the LBF UA sounding this morning, residing in the lower 10% of the 30yr climatological average and near the daily low. Thursday height rises develop over the northern Plains as the upper ridge axis propagates eastward. Thursday night will see surface pressures lowering slightly in the northern High Plains as the ridge axis continues to shift east and upper level troughing develops in the PacNW.
/issued 250 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020/ (Tonight and Thursday) After the record cold this morning, a warmer afternoon with temperatures already in the mid to upper 80s. Returning south winds tonight will keep readings up in the low to mid 60s for most locations. The building upper level ridge has a bigger effect on Thursday afternoon temperatures with highs in the mid 90s.
Quiet weather is expected for the ArkLaMiss overnight, with drier and cooler air continuing to filter into the region behind the earlier cold front passage. Dry conditions look to prevail through the period as high pressure remains in control across the region.
Showers will become more numerous again late tonight into Thursday morning with a passing cold front.
646 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Scattered light rain showers remain possible until early this evening north of I-72 as an upper level low continues to affect the area.
High pressure in place providing a weak pressure gradient and thus favorable conditions across the local waters.
Pre frontal trough working across the Plateau at this time with isol/sct tstms that are below strong/severe limits. The cold frontal boundary is west of Nashville and there is some ongoing compressional warming along the I-65 corridor in advance of the front. The cooler air will continue to advect in with lows by morning generally around 60 degrees. Under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies, high temps will only reach the lower 80s, mid to upper 70s Plateau. Dewpoints in the lower 50s will make it feel very nice along with a 10-15 mph northerly wind.
1057 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 A cold front will support showers and thunderstorms this evening. Dry weather will return Thursday under building high pressure, with temperature returning to near average through the end of the week. Dry conditions return on Thursday with building high pressure behind the front.
515 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Western NOAM ridge will slowly push east as a NE PAC upper trough slowly advects east. This will support continued deep layer ridging over the area and a warming trend through the end of the work week.
1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Looking at a quiet night on tap as high pressure builds in from the northwest under a large dome of high pressure. This high is expected to remain in place through the rest of the week and into the weekend. A dry north to northwest flow will be in place through the column between high pressure amplifying northward from Texas, and low pressure digging over the eastern CONUS. High pressure building over the region will maintain a dry weather pattern.
Current surface analysis place low over southern Ontario and ridge over the northern Rockies, resulting in breezy northwesterly winds over our area. Upper level analysis places trough along the Manitoba/Ontario border resulting in modest cyclonic flow over North Dakota. On Thursday, aforementioned trough scoots off to the east with ridge strengthening to the west. This will also result in warmer temperatures, with highs climbing to a bit above average.
628 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020 VFR conditions will prevail at all area airports for the next 24 hours under high pressure. For the next 36 hours, high pressure will take over and clear, calm, dry conditions are expected to persist. Although it was still a bit breezy this morning with a few gusts in the 25-30 mph range, NE to E winds will gradually diminish through this evening and tonight, then increase again to 5-10 knots and shift to ENE (most of the area) and SE (mainly Rio Grande) in the anticyclonic flow at the base of the ridge during the day Thursday.
Low humidity on Thursday will offset warmer highs as heights and temperatures begin to rise aloft.
A long wave trough is sliding east through the Ohio River Valley, upstream from a highly amplified ridge reaching north into the Canadian Maritimes. The low-level ridging reaches west across South Florida, corroborated by the rising 925 mb heights sampled by the 00Z south Florida RAOBs. Storm motions over the Bahamas are from the northeast, potentially painting the western extent of a weak inverted trough in the easterlies.
741 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Anomalous upper low continues to move east across the mid Mississippi valley while ridging builds across the Great Basin and portions of the northern Rockies. Height rises noted on morning UA plots along the High Plains. In the wake of the system, anomalously low precipitable water values noted on the LBF UA sounding this morning, residing in the lower 10% of the 30yr climatological average and near the daily low. Thursday height rises develop over the northern Plains as the upper ridge axis propagates eastward. Thursday night will see surface pressures lowering slightly in the northern High Plains as the ridge axis continues to shift east and upper level troughing develops in the PacNW.
97 In the short term, a high pressure ridge will be the predominant feature over northeast Montana.
/issued 331 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020/ The cold front near the MS River will push into north GA this evening as a deep trough develops over the Great Lakes. BDL The cold front is expected to clear the area Thursday night before stalling along the atlantic coast. High pressure will build in the plains, reinforcing the ridge over the area through the weekend and keeping precip chances confined to the southeast.
910 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 A cold front will support showers and thunderstorms this evening. Dry weather will return Thursday under building high pressure, with temperature returning to near average through the end of the week. Effective shear and instability will increase as the associated negatively tilted trough tracks east this evening and a line of storms capable of producing damaging wind will cross this evening ahead of the cold front. Dry conditions return on Thursday with building high pressure behind the front.
511 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2020 A return to near seasonal temperatures this afternoon as departed low pressure system digs into the central midwest as an overall ridging pattern sets up across the region.
Upper troughing over the northern plains will contribute to a few instability showers this afternoon/evening. Winds become more westerly on Thursday as an upper ridge begins to shift east out of the intermountain west. The drier airmass and good daytime mixing will mean a sharp drop off in temperatures tonight but warmer highs on Thursday, especially across the west.
408 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Cold front continues to push away from the area this afternoon with considerably drier air finally flushing out the Cristobal ladened tropical air mass.
/issued 258 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020/ Clouds associated with an upper trof are continuing to spread into the Mid-South at this time. Highs will be in the lower 80s with low humidity. An upper level trof will begin to dig over the Ohio Valley as an upper ridge builds over the Southern Plains.
510 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2020 00Z TAF CYCLE Upper ridge building over NM. Moisture will be advecting into the ridge next 24 hours with high based showers and tstms with gusty winds developing aft 11/18Z mainly along and south of Interstate 40. After a brief cooldown, temperatures will begin to trend upward as high pressure builds over the area Wednesday afternoon.
Sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 80s are expected for Thursday. Forecast remains dry through the next Wednesday as upper ridging moves further into the area. High pressure will settle into the region this evening with diminishing winds and clear skies. This high will be the main weather influence through the end of the TAF period with VFR flight conditions.
Sfc ridging currently centered across Central Texas into Northern Oklahoma will move slowly eastward overnight with the ridge axis likely oriented from NW AR into E OK and Central Texas by 12z Thu. This ridge axis only moves very slowly eastward on Thu but enough such that winds will become NNE to NE during the daytime hours on Thu with speeds at or near 10kts during the day.
/issued 309 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday night): Vsbl satl imagery and KBRO reflectivity indicates isold/sct conv firing along and south of the cold front sliding through the RGV area this afternoon. The ECMWF and NAM are a little warmer for temps through the short term versus the GFS. Considering that daytime heating will likely be pretty strong tomorrow for the afternoon highs, will likely lean towards the warmer side of guidance for temps.
Showers riding along a cold front are exiting the area. A few light showers will remain across the far eastern mountains over the next few hours but should be out of the area around sunrise as the cold front pushes east of the Appalachians. Highs will be cooler today behind the front with temps in the upper 70s to low 80s, which is around 3 to 5 degrees below normal. This evening will be very pleasant with the drier air and cooler temps.
143 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020 An upper level ridge of high pressure will be the main weather influence across west Texas and southeast New Mexico the next seven days. An upper level disturbance rotating around the periphery of the ridge combined with upslope flow will spark isolated to scattered thunderstorms across portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains and the Guadalupe, Delaware and Davis Mountains.
Highs will be near normal in the low to mid 80s with lows tonight in the upper 50s to mid 60s. On Friday, the weak cold front will eventually wash out as it exits the region with light winds becoming northerly.
High pressure centered east of the mid Atlantic states will remain stationary over the next 24h as its extends SW to offshore the northern third of Florida. A brief break from high PoPs on Friday, as high pressure drifts seaward off of the Carolina coast and drier air sneaks in to east central Florida. After a seasonable start Friday morning with lows in the low 70s, high temperatures will rise into the 90s in the afternoon, with limited cloud cover; however, drier air means heat indices will be around 10 degrees lower than previous days in some locations.
334 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020 Zonal flow aloft will amplify through the day today as an upper level ridge builds over New Mexico and Colorado. At the surface, winds will veer to south and increase a bit to become modestly breezy during the afternoon in response to a fairly weak lee trough near the Pecos River in eastern New Mexico. Pattern with the upper ridge axis near the Texas/New Mexico state line favors keeping precip in New Mexico.
Temps will be up to 5C warmer than yesterday, and with expected boundary layer mixing to around 750mb under sunny skies, this should translate to highs in the lower to mid 80s. Of course, it may feel warmer outside due to full sunshine and little wind. The main weather story for the weekend and beyond revolves around the upper ridge holding strong over the Plains.
Moisture is not abundant, but lapse rates of around 7C/KM, dry air in the low levels, and low wet bulb zero heights suggest that there could be some strong thunderstorms with wind gusts over 40 mph and small hail in the afternoon and early evening.
103 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020 VFR conditions with calm to light/variable winds overnight as sfc ridging settles over the region. This ridge axis moves slowly eastward today, and winds will become NNE to NE by the late morning hours, decoupling again after sunset.
No precipitation is noted with this frontal passage, just a windshift to the northwest and north that will bring a drier and slightly cooler airmass to the region. In the wake of the front, highs will range from the low to mid 80s interior northwest zones to the upper 80s elsewhere. Lows Thursday night are expected to range from the lower 60s over northwest interior Mississippi and Alabama zones to the middle 60s over remainder of interior southwest Alabama and northwest Florida panhandle zones.
Showers and a few thunderstorms continue in a broken line ahead of a strong early summer cold front that was now crossing the forecast area late this evening. Expect SHRA/TSRA to continue ahead of a cold front early this evening moving across east Tennessee.
253 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2020 Upper ridge is building across the central to northern Rockies, with surface ridging extending from southern Plains high pressure. Upper ridging will remain in control through Friday as the main axis crosses the northern Plains.
1236 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020 Anomalous upper low continues to move east across the mid Mississippi valley while ridging builds across the Great Basin and portions of the northern Rockies. Height rises noted on morning UA plots along the High Plains. In the wake of the system, anomalously low precipitable water values noted on the LBF UA sounding this morning, residing in the lower 10% of the 30yr climatological average and near the daily low. Thursday height rises develop over the northern Plains as the upper ridge axis propagates eastward. Thursday night will see surface pressures lowering slightly in the northern High Plains as the ridge axis continues to shift east and upper level troughing develops in the PacNW.
A well-defined cold front has reached the I-59 corridor as of 01Z, separating dew points in the m70s from u50-a60 just behind it. High pressure builds over the Southeast on Thursday, with weak northerly flow continuing to advect milder, drier air into the Tennessee Valley. This will lead to clear skies and cooler than normal temperatures for Thursday and Friday. Highs will generally be in the low-to-mid 80s, and lows will be in the upper 50s to low 60s.
1119 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Expect benign weather and a warming trend -- in association with an amplifying upper level ridge over the Rockies and High Plains, with highs rebounding to the mid-upper 80s on Thursday and lower 90s on Friday. Upper ridge axis will be just east of the area and open the door for weak disturbances in the southwest flow.
Showers and a few thunderstorms continue in a broken line ahead of a strong early summer cold front that was now crossing the forecast area late this evening. Showers are close to exiting the area as a cold front pushes through the region. SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 63 86 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 61 84 60 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 81 60 84 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 79 56 81 55 82 / 10 0 0 0 10.
211 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020 An upper level high was located over southwest Texas, an upper level low was moving northeast into eastern Canada from the Great Lakes, and an upper level trough was approaching the Pacific Northwest coast. The upper flow will be zonal across the Panhandles this morning before becoming more northwest by late this afternoon as the upper level high expands somewhat over New Mexico. Mid level moisture and a couple of mid level short wave trough will rotate around the high to our south and move across the northern CWA this afternoon and tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible again Friday afternoon and evening across the Oklahoma Panhandle and the northern Texas Panhandle as another short wave trough rotates the area on the north side of the high.
Friday looks to be mostly quiet though there will be very slight chances for some showers and weak storms in the afternoon, likely diurnally driven if they occur given weak forcing from some surface convergence with some moisture in the low levels.
225 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2020 500mb RAP analysis and satellite imagery showed a trough over the eastern CONUS with a ridge building to its west, placing the region under northwest flow. As the upper ridge progresses from the Great Basin to the eastern Rockies today and Friday, dry weather, sunny skies, and a warming trend are expected. High temperatures climb from the 80s today to mainly the low 90s on Friday.
Into Friday afternoon, heights aloft will begin falling from west to east in response to an approaching Pacific trough, but surface cooling will be minimal.
(Today and tonight) The week-long heat wave to come resumes today as the upper high pressure dome over Coahuila and Chihuahua begins to build to the northeast. A weak front will arrive this evening from Kansas as mid-level moisture arrives from the south around the upper high pressure.
331 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020 Zonal flow aloft will amplify through the day today as an upper level ridge builds over New Mexico and Colorado. At the surface, winds will veer to south and increase a bit to become modestly breezy during the afternoon in response to a fairly weak lee trough near the Pecos River in eastern New Mexico. Pattern with the upper ridge axis near the Texas/New Mexico state line favors keeping precip in New Mexico.
Our warming trend continues as the ridge aloft moves nearer and with heights and thicknesses increasing. Ridging aloft strengthens across Wyoming with warm temperatures aloft and limited low and mid level moisture inhibiting shower and thunderstorm development.
340 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020 Primary concern today will be convective development this afternoon along a back door cold front. The cold front will push southwest from Manitoba during the afternoon with temps rising into the mid 70s and some moisture pooling along and ahead of the front allowing MUCAPE to climb into the 1000 to 1500j/kg range. Storm speed and PWATs less than an inch will limit the areal coverage of heavy rainfall with the highest amounts in narrow tracks possibly seeing a half inch or so. A deep long wave trof over the Great lakes will shift a bit eastward as H5 ridging starts to build into the Dakotas.