Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 225 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019/ There is a broad upper ridge over most of the country with a weakening in the ridge over Texas, Oklahoma, and eastern New Mexico. This weakening will allow for increased chances of showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain and surrounding plains today. The upper ridge shifts slightly east on Wednesday with temperatures heating up a little across the Upper Trans Pecos and thunderstorm chances decreasing a little.
The afternoon convection has missed the RGV with the highest concentration located over the Gulf of Mex this afternoon. For now the KBRO radar is clear of conv with the exception of some spotty conv across the higher terrain of Mexico. /issued 255 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday night): Satellite and radar images indicate convection continues to develop across portions of Kenedy county this afternoon as well as offshore the lower Texas coast. The 500mb ridge across northwest Mexico and the 500mb ridge across the eastern Gulf of Mexico will continue to provide a 500mb trough/shear axis across southwest Texas tonight through Wednesday night.
737 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019 A large upper level ridge will keep the region warm and humid for the rest of the week. HRRR model not even close showing dew points in the lower 60s.
Highs today will be in the upper 70s to upper 80s, with lows tonight in the lower to mid 60s.
Upper level pattern keeps the main flow along the Canadian border with weak ridging over the southeast. We will start off with high pressure aloft over the gulf into TX. There will be weak troughing over the lower Ohio Valley which combined with afternoon heating should generate a few storms.
On Wednesday, upper ridge builds while drier air spreads into the region from the southwest. As a result, expected a significant downturn in thunderstorm chances, with only some weak and isolated storms over mainly the higher terrain and Palmer Divide late in the afternoon. high pressure is forecast to build across the region Wednesday night through Thursday across Colorado. For Thursday, very similar conditions are expected across the region with high pressure spread over the area.
An upper ridge just to the west of Alabama will continue to suppress activity and will keep a dry forecast for the overnight period. Lows in the lower to middle 70s.
High temperatures today will top out in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees, while lows tonight fall into the lower 70s.
The majority of the region can expect drier and warmer weather for July Fourth. By late Wed morning, our slow moving upper low is expected to be moving out of northeast Oregon into the southern Idaho Panhandle. /GKoch 06Z TAFS: An upper level low pressure system will take up residence over southeast WA. Moisture will wrap around the low across north ID and into north-central to northeast WA. SHowers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage with daytime heating Wednesday afternoon, but expect most of the convection to be away from the TAF sites over the higher terrain.
/Today through Thursday/ Southerly flow to prevail aloft today as high pressure builds from the west and an upper-level trough remains anchored across central Texas. Temperatures forecast to fall into the lower 70s. Upper-trough to shift northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Thursday as upper-ridge strengthens across the ArkLaTex. Forcing associated with departing trough to support scattered afternoon convection across much of the region with the higher rain chances along and north of Interstate 30. Temperatures to climb into the lower 90s south of I-20 with slightly cooler values to the north.
The synoptic pattern today will continue to be dominated by a upper ridge over the southern tier of the U. This should usher in another warm day with highs in the 87 to 92 degree range and dewpoints in the lower 70s. Thunderstorm coverage doesn't look widespread, with the best forcing for assent remaining to our west over the High Plains.
Upper trough over Texas continues to bring rain chances to the area today. By Thursday, the upper trough weakens as an upper ridge begins to build in from the east.
In the upper levels, high pressure was located over the central Gulf of Mexico, with another cell over northern/western Mexico. In between, there were were what was left of the upper low we've been talking about, as well as a deepening trough moving around the periphery of the western ridge. The remnant upper low will get absorbed into the trough. Daytime heating will interact with the low level moisture over us and remnant mesoscale boundaries, and with the upper support from the aforementioned upper level systems, expect scattered showers and thunderstorms again today, with the highest chances during the afternoon and early evening hours.
1130 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2019 A ridge will remain in place over the Tri-State area through the duration of the short term forecast. Wednesday will be a warmer day with highs reaching the low to mid- 90s in most areas with a few upper 80s in eastern Colorado. The higher deep layer shear will be in Wyoming, so would expect the stronger storms to remain north of the forecast area. The mixed layer CINh is on the high side, 40 j/kg along the dry line, which would limit the storm coverage. Confidence of severe weather occurring is on the low side and looks to be most favorable for Yuma and possibly Dundy counties. Otherwise rain chances will return to the forecast area for this period of the forecast as numerous upper level short wave troughs move over/nearby.
159 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2019 A stationary front will linger near Lake Erie through Thursday as high pressure remains centered over the upper Ohio valley.
The strong upper ridge that had broken down some last week allowing for instability to work into area for a much will begin to amplify once again during the day today on into the end of the week. and combined with lee-side troughing over the Front Range for today and Thursday and surface ridging to the east. the focus will be on the aforementioned lee-side trough. This trough sets up today over the Front Range and remains into Thursday afternoon before lifting slowly NNE Thursday night.
442 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2019 Water vapor imagery this morning continues to show a well stacked ridge over the central Gulf of Mexico. An inverted trough is slowly working its way westward and resides on the eastern edges of the Bahamas this morning.
Some passing high clouds and boundary layer moisture has helped to keep temperatures rather warm overnight, with 08:30z temperatures remaining in the low to mid 70s. With the Tennessee Valley sitting along the northwest edge of the ridge, would expect slightly better coverage of afternoon diurnal convection. Clouds may cut down on temperatures slightly, but still expect highs to peak in the low to mid 90s across the valley, with heat index values peaking around 100 degrees. A more active pattern will start to emerge late this week, as the Tennessee Valley region remains on the northwest to north edge of an upper ridge. The Fourth of July will feature more diurnal convection, but the weakness in the ridge will likely help to create 40-50 percent coverage during the mid/late afternoon, before dissipating (for the most part) by evening fireworks.
154 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2019 A large upper level ridge will keep the region warm and humid for the rest of the week.
Given the low coverage, we chose not to include in any TAF groups. A few storms will be possible early this evening across the Hill Country, on the east side of a weak upper level low. Temperatures will remain pretty close to early July normals, with lows tonight around 70 and highs on Wednesday in the low to mid 90s.
The primary differences between today and yesterday are in the lower levels, where guidance is depicting slightly more moist and warm atmosphere. With more clouds, temps should be a few degrees cooler that yesterday, though the dew points will remain high and heat index readings will still push into the mid to upper 90s. BSH The upper ridge over the northern CONUS will gradually flatten out as we move through the weekend.
The majority of the region can expect drier and warmer weather for July Fourth. By late Wed morning, our slow moving upper low is expected to be moving out of northeast Oregon into the southern Idaho Panhandle.
The global models continue to show the upper ridge weakening along with increasing deep layer moisture through the period.
Broad subtropical ridging stretches from the Southern High Plains to the Mid-Atlantic region, with one notable perturbation/cutoff low progressing northeastward through Arkansas. Close to the surface, weak southerly flow was in place between the stacked high to the east and broad lee troughing over the Central High Plains. For this afternoon, expect similar highs to yesterday with no appreciable change to the lower tropospheric air mass. The blocking Deep South U.
350 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019 (Today and Tonight) The upper level low remains in the area this morning, and is expected to remain nearly stationary over our region today.
127 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2019 A large upper level ridge will keep the region warm and humid for the rest of the week.
An upper level low continues to slowly move north into the Hill Country. No significant changes are expected over the period, as the upper level low and associated trough remain over our western zones. The wave of moisture is associated with an upper level trough that is nearly stationary over NW TX and is forecast to weaken or move farther west as the upper ridge moves into the TX Coast beginning on Thursday. Drier conditions are expected late Thursday through the weekend as a ridge builds in overhead. The onshore flow will relax late in the week under the influence of ridging aloft and at the surface.
/issued 225 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019/ There is a broad upper ridge over most of the country with a weakening in the ridge over Texas, Oklahoma, and eastern New Mexico. This weakening will allow for increased chances of showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain and surrounding plains today. The upper ridge shifts slightly east on Wednesday with temperatures heating up a little across the Upper Trans Pecos and thunderstorm chances decreasing a little. The upper ridge will remain over the region through the weekend with chances of rain and storms being mostly confined to areas west of the Pecos River.
Maintaining low thunder chances coinciding with the deeper moisture near and east of the upper trough axis. This should lead to a warmer and mostly sunny day but with enough moisture holding on in western counties for at least a slight chance of mainly high-based thunderstorms late Thursday.
These features, combined with an unstable atmosphere and adequate low level moisture, should continue to result in further development of showers and tstms across our fcst area as well as over the higher terrain of ern NM through the evening hours before diminishing after midnight tonight. For Wednesday through Thursday night, there may be less coverage of showers and tstms as the inverted trof loses its grip on the OK and TX Panhandles and upper level heights rise some.
727 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2019 A large upper level ridge will keep the region warm and humid for the rest of the week.
That said it shouldn't get west of Trail Ridge before the cells fall apart.
A cold front will push south to the Continental Divide by 00Z Thursday. Surface Convective Inhibition (CIN) could delay or limit robust convection this afternoon, but current thinking is with continued insolation and a weak disturbance should be enough forcing for convection to develop especially over the higher terrain. Shear will be also present especially in wake of the cold front.
604 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2019 A large upper level ridge will keep the region warm and humid for the rest of the week.
Sharply drier air then overspreads the area overnight with the westward advancement and expansion of high pressure aloft over the eastern Gulf waters. Temperatures will trend toward the norm tomorrow, then start and upward advance for the rest of the week with the dry high pressure becoming increasingly in play across the area.
Persistent weak trough along the West Coast will help to keep temperatures close to average today and the Fourth of July before temperatures gradually warm by the end of the week as the trough weakens.
higher over the NW counties given the slow trek of the upper level trof/shear axis from Central TX to the NE.
1027 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2019 A large upper level ridge will keep the region warm and humid for the rest of the week.
The low level jet/flow will weaken and veer over the next few hours.
Initial thinking of how today will play out centered on approach of next short wave topping broad upper trough over central U.
A cold frontal boundary will lie east to west across our counties this afternoon.
High pressure over the Gulf will remain in control today with a light northwest to north wind flow continuing across the forecast area. High pressure over the Gulf will maintain tranquil boating conditions over the Gulf and near shore waters the remainder of today with northwest to north winds around 10 knots with seas of 2 feet or less.
An approaching low pressure system will bring a few thunderstorms to northeast Nevada on Wednesday along with gusty winds to the southern part of the state. There will be an increased chance for thunderstorms across northeast Nevada on the 4th of July as a cold front crawls across the state. A short wave trough will exit the state Thursday night with a subtle ridge moving in behind the trough.
A weak closed upper low will move through the region today. The closed upper low continues to move east out of the region tonight, shifting the area of instability east with it into Thursday. Weak ridging builds in Thursday, with a slight warming trend from today.
flow regime out of NW wl become N/NE tonight as an inverted trof over the Bahama Bank works its way into the FL Straits. Favorable boating conds as a weak sfc/low lvl pgrad prevails a the wrn flank of the Bermuda Ridge axis remains acrs the lcl Atlc.
Cool again as clouds and upper low move in. TFJ SW flow aloft will continue the next few days over Montana as an upper trough currently over the Pacific NW moves east.
The weak upper low over the area at the beginning of the day will continue to support thunderstorms that are present but there are few models that have any storms around with the onset of daybreak. With the loss of daytime heating, storms should dissipate a bit better than they have the past few days as the upper low will be moving east and the CWA will be on the back side with downward motion inhibiting storms from lasting much past the early evening hours.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 74 92 73 / 30 30 40 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 71 89 71 / 50 30 40 40 Oak Ridge, TN 87 71 89 72 / 50 30 40 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 68 88 68 / 50 30 50 50.
Western Washington will experience a drying and warming trend today as an upper level low exits to the east. A few showers could linger over the mountains, but the majority of the lowlands should remain fairly dry.
302 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2019 SW flow aloft will continue the next few days over Montana as an upper trough currently over the Pacific NW moves east.
A trough will continue to slowly move across the the Northern Rockies. While the trough will remain west of the area today, more impulses of energy will move across the area. Independence Day looks to be another showery day as the trough moves across the area. Temperatures through the period will continue to be cooler than normal through the period.
/issued 350 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019/ (Today and Tonight) The upper level low remains in the area this morning, and is expected to remain nearly stationary over our region today.
528 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2019 A large upper level ridge will keep the region warm and humid for the rest of the week.
Ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico/East Coast will drift to the west tonight becoming situated from the northern Gulf of Mexico up into the TN valley Thursday. The warmer temperatures aloft and lower dewpoints at the surface will promote more of a scarcity of convection in the south, while conditions remain somewhat more conducive for convection over the north. /GG/ Subtropical ridging centered over the northern Gulf of Mexico during the start of the period will gradually retrograde to the west and become centered over west Texas into New Mexico.
Rain chances will diminish Thursday as the 500mb ridge across the Gulf of Mexico builds westward and low to mid level moisture diminishes across the Rio Grande Valley. Expect hot and humid conditions for the Fourth of July with breezy conditions as the pressure gradient is relatively strong across the lower Texas coast.
217 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019 An upper level ridge of high pressure will be anchored across the forecast area the next seven days. Despite the presence of the ridge, low level moisture and weak upper level disturbances trapped within the ridge will produce the risk of isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. With the persistent ridge in the area, temperatures are expected to be above normal the next 7 days.
With PWATs remaining above normal and warm temperatures within a significant portion of the lower cloud layer, these thunderstorms will be capable of efficient rainfall production which could result in minor street flooding.
The lack of wind shear in through the lowest 6KM of the atmosphere will likely limit the coverage of convection similar to the last few days. However, there are some indications of weak upper troughing that could add a little additional forcing.
914 AM PDT Wed Jul 3 2019 Cooler than average weather is expected through the fourth of July as a trough of low pressure moves through the West.
An upper low and longwave trough will reload Thursday across the Pacific Northwest, keeping an upper level high mostly suppressed over the southwest into the central and southern plains.
Upper air analysis this morning showed a trough over Northern Mexico, but the flow over Texas was ill defined and weak. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the Gulf and winds across our CWA were from the south to southeast. The airmass continues to be very moist with dewpoint temperatures in the lower 70s. The weak upper trough will slowly retreat northward tonight and there will be sufficient instability for showers and thunderstorms to continue through the evening. The subtropical ridge will build over Texas from the east Thursday suppressing convection for the rest of this period. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer.
1011 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2019 An upper level trough is situated over the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies this morning. This pattern will keep temperatures around 10 degrees cooler than normal today.
This disturbance is a part of a long wave troughing (low pressure) pattern that is responsible for our cooler temperatures everywhere with showers and thunderstorms being possible east of the Cascades. A weak closed upper low will move through the region today. The closed upper low continues to move east out of the region tonight, shifting the area of instability east with it into Thursday. Weak ridging builds in Thursday, with a slight warming trend from today.
A dry cold front stalled will stall across northern Utah today but will move farther south Thursday as a disturbance rotates around the base of the Northern Rockies trough.
One change from previous model runs is that increased cloud cover will now be expected tomorrow morning, which may lead to a slight cooler 4th of July than previously expected. For now, mid- to upper 80s are forecast, however these values may be a little on the high side of cloud cover lingers around a little longer than expected tomorrow afternoon. Despite this, temps should warm enough to result in another afternoon of isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity Thursday afternoon, however areal coverage should be on the low side once again.
1007 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019 An upper-level ridge remains over eastern CONUS with west- southwest flow over the region. Temperatures are in the low to mid 80s with slightly cooler temperatures to the southeast due to greater cloud coverage. A very muggy airmass is in place with dew points in the low to mid 70s.
/issued 1007 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019/ An upper-level ridge remains over eastern CONUS with west- southwest flow over the region. Temperatures are in the low to mid 80s with slightly cooler temperatures to the southeast due to greater cloud coverage. A very muggy airmass is in place with dew points in the low to mid 70s.
332 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019 An upper level low continues to meander just west of the area, while a high pressure ridge builds in from the east. Tomorrow appears to be a bit drier to the west, with the precipitation expected mainly along a trough axis along a line near Victoria to Alice for tomorrow, with precipitation chances lowering by early tomorrow morning.
Outside of storms, temperatures are in the low 90s with dew points in the low 70s. An upper level ridge is still parked over the region and that's expected to be the case through the weekend.
A warm front has lifted into central Iowa this afternoon and is approaching Interstate 80. The main focus for storms is expected within the Highway 20 and Interstate 80 corridor, which is along and north of the warm front. 0-3 km CAPE is high at 150 J/kg with some surface vorticity available north of the warm front.
230 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2019 A large upper level ridge will keep the region warm and humid for the rest of the week.
330 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019 As temperatures reached the mid 80s with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s, convective temperatures were reached today. For now, in the early afternoon, the highest coverage is in the southern CWA, but this may shift north with time, as there are many hours left of high CAPE, low shear convection. CAPE values on the SPC mesoanalysis page are now 4000 to 4500 ! Lows tonight, like last night are set for the lower to mid 70s, and highs Thursday are expected in the mid to upper 80s, in a persistence forecast.
Stacked high pressure will maintain lows generally in the mid to upper 70s and daytime highs in the mid 90s each day.
The high resolution convection allowing models (CAMs) really have not done a very good job the past 12 hours or more, which is not surprising. For tonight, using a blend of the high resolution models, it seems the area with the highest chance for storms will from southwest Iowa back into parts of east central NE. A cold front will be moving toward northeast NE later in the day and evening, so increased storm chances there for Thursday night.
By Fri, the threat is down everywhere with the troughing over the west coast shifting northward and away from the Gem State.
For the 4th of July, we will once again see isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms as a weak mid-level trof moves across the region.
117 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2019 Latest analysis has an upper low over the Pacific Northwest with a trough digging down the West Coast with weak upper ridging over the Mississippi Valley region, leaving the western High Plains in a west southwesterly flow pattern. At the surface, a stationary boundary/cold front remains draped across southwestern South Dakota and northwest SD, into eastern North Dakota. Should see storms move off the higher terrain into the forecast area later this afternoon/early evening as well.
Light flow regime ascd with a weak ridge will lead to another day of boundary driven storms. Surface ridging continues over the western Atlc through the period with associated ridge axis sliding south of ECFL by early Sun. Weakness in the mid-level ridging will promote some unsettled conditions aloft with ample mid-level energy across the peninsula enhancing convection.
226 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2019 A ridge centered over Texas will gradually build north and west through Thursday night while moderate trough moves from the Pacific Northwest to through the northern Great Basin.