Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA WILL SHIFT SOUTH AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AROUND MIDWEEK.
921 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING HIGHER LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT.
AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT STILL PROGGED TO PUSH INTO NW GA AROUND SUNRISE. UPPER RIDGE FLATTENING SOME THROUGH THE PERIOD AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD DRIFT SOUTH INTO GA BY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ATLANTA AIRPORTS BETWEEN 12Z-15Z TUE.
635 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015 STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW AND STRATOCUMULUS ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW PRESSURE HAVE KEPT VERY COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER EVEN WITH THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH WILL REALLY HELP IT FEEL MUCH BETTER THAN TODAY.
1040 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING HIGHER LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT.
817 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 COLD FRONT CROSSES FIRST THING TUESDAY MORNING.
The cold front this afternoon stretches from Lake Michigan down through Illinois into southeast Missouri. Highs tomorrow will be cooler in the wake of the front, particularly across southern IN where temps look to top out near 70 in some places. Lows tomorrow night will be quite a bit cooler, dipping into the upper 40s to lower 50s.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH TO NEAR THE RED RIVER BY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY.
916 PM PDT MON MAY 18 2015 SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEK WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES.
LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO BREAK AND DAY TIME HEATING TO HELP MIX OUT THE LOW LAYER MOISTURE WITH SCT- BKN VFR CONDITOINS REDEVELOPING AFTER 14Z TUESDAY. A MODEST SOUTHWEST TO DOWNSTREAM OF MID LEVEL TROUGHING EDGING EAST FROM CALIFORNIA TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS. WEAK H5 RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST.
A COOL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE BAY AREA THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CALIFORNIA INTERIOR IS MOVING INTO NEVADA. SHOWERS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COASTAL RANGE OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW AND A COUPLE OF THESE SHOWERS SPREAD INTO THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS. A DEEP MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE LOW KEPT STRATUS IN OVER THE SFO BAY AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS ALL SHOWED THE DISSIPATING EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER MEXICO/W TX/BIG BEND AREA THAT COULD IMPACT THE AREA BY LATE MORNING.
800 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING.
COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF STL AROUND MIDDAY WILL CONTINUE MOVING SE TO AROUND THE OHIO RIVER BY EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW TUE AND TUE NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP OUT OVER THE SRN PLAINS TUE NIGHT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER MEXICO/W TX/BIG BEND AREA THAT COULD IMPACT THE AREA BY LATE MORNING.
750 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 A COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEK. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER 80S.
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN REDUCE AFTERNOON COVERAGE.
WITH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE COURSE OF TUESDAY. SLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM TX INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION OUR FLOW FROM THE SW TO MORE WESTERLY.
THE LOW TROF. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES SLOW PROGRESSION EAST AND NORTH OVERNIGHT.
727 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING HIGHER LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA ALLOWING PWAT VALUES TO RISE TO AROUND 1.
1101 PM CDT Mon May 18 2015 Tonight - Tuesday: A seasonally cool area of high pressure over the Northern Plains will press southward overnight into Tuesday yielding temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below average.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. AND COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MN. UPPER LOW HAD DRAGGED QUITE A COLD POCKET INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL US.
A COOL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE BAY AREA THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THE COOL WEATHER IS COURTESY OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE BAY AREA THAT IS GENERATING LOTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. RIGHT NOW NOT EXPECTING MANY CHANGES IN THE UPPER PATTERN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDS WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST.
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES.
950 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING.
955 PM PDT MON MAY 18 2015 A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA THIS WEEK.
IF THAT HAPPENS MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT WHICH IS GOOD NEWS FOR TENDER PLANTS. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW AND STRATOCUMULUS ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW PRESSURE HAVE KEPT VERY COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER EVEN WITH THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH WILL REALLY HELP IT FEEL MUCH BETTER THAN TODAY.
1000 PM PDT MON MAY 18 2015 A SERIES OF THREE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INLAND THROUGH CALIFORNIA THIS WEEK.
1112 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. COOLER AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR WILL POUR ACROSS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL THEN SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. A MESO-CYCLONE DEVELOPED ALONG A SFC BASED BOUNDARY OVER THE SRN TIER. THUS TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NY WILL RECOVER INTO THE LOW-MID 60S TUESDAY MORNING.
1157 PM CDT Mon May 18 2015 A thin band of cumulus clouds on the visible satellite shows nicely where the cold front is currently located across the Missouri Ozarks. A cooler and drier airmass will move in tonight. Dewpoints in the lower to middle 40s across northwest Missouri will move into the Missouri Ozarks by morning. It will be perfect open the windows type weather tonight with lows in the middle 40s across central Missouri to the lower 50s across southern Missouri. A very pleasant day is heading our way for Tuesday with high pressure filtering in and mostly sunny skies.
1248 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS INLAND.
1039 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POPPING UP ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED ALONG THE TN/MS BORDER BY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT MAY SPARK OFF A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER. COOLER.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN SE MO AND S IL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM EXTREME SE MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO FINALLY APPROACH NW ALABAMA TUESDAY MORNING.
UPR AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGE JUST UP AND DOWN THE STATE WITH CWA ON THE SOUTH AND SE END OF THAT FEATURE. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS IMPINGING ON THE SE COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERYPHERY OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGE. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AT LOW LEVELS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE RIDGE WITH H9 BASED INVERSION PRESENT AND MID LEVELS WARMER THAN NORMAL.
WITH ALABAMA ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF.
1004 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS INLAND.
1227 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST FOR THE MIDNIGHT UPDATE AS SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE WITH THE COLD FRONT.
1159 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 COLD FRONT CROSSES FIRST THING TUESDAY MORNING.
756 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. BUT THE HIGH MOISTURE WILL TIELD SOME VERY HIGH RAIN RATES. ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT CLEARING THE REGION. RESPECTABLE ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WITH A PUSH OF NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FOR MIDWEEK. WHILE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER EASTERN CANADA. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL REBOUND A BIT WARMER EACH DAY.
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. 12Z GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW STRATUS DECK CLOUDS TO WRAP AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA REMAINS ALL BLOCKED UP WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA.
836 PM PDT Mon May 18 2015 Variable clouds and mainly mountain showers and afternoon thunderstorms through the week as a series of weak low pressure systems move across California.
959 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 A COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEK. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER 80S.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER THE LINEAR NATURE OF THE LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE COULD RESULT IN SOME POORLY ORGANIZED LINES OF STORMS AS WELL. LATEST MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA WILL BE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH MUCH LOWER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
1253 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING AND WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
NEXT UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FORECAST AREA. WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF THE WEEK. COLD FRONT THEN SWEEPS INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH IMPROVING AND COOLER WEATHER DURING THE AFTERNOON. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH MUCH LOWER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER FAR SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WHICH REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW STRETCHES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. SCATTERED MVFR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS EVENING.
Potent upper low noted on early morning water vapor imagery is heading east across northern AR. The latter line has formed within a deformation zone north of the center of the low. Then a secondary area of storms is possible across our Lake Cumberland region in a narrow window early to mid afternoon before the upper low center moves east of the region.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN OK TOMORROW AM AS A FAIRLY DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS NW OK MAY DROP TO NEAR FREEZING WED MORNING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW TEENS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT FRI WITH HOW FAR A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE TO THE SOUTH AS A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ENTIRE NORTHERN CONUS. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY NOW, HOWEVER, WITH THE TIMING AND DEPTH OF THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT APPEAR FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS TROUGH, AND SNOWFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF OK THROUGH SAT AM.
143 AM MST MON MAR 14 2016 AFTER MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. /TODAY/ AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS ARKANSAS WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND MOVING INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. AND SUFFICIENT FORCING WITH THE LOWS SHOULD PROVIDE RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE TODAY PERIOD. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
608 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ARKANSAS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY CAUSING SHOWERS TO SPREAD BACK INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT PROVIDING SOME CLEARING, WHICH MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF ROUTE 24, WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDED FROM MGC-DFI LIFTING NE. WIDESPREAD VSBYS <1 MILE WITH A FEW SPOTS DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.
300 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016 AREA CURRENTLY BETWEEN A COUPLE MID-LEVEL TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECTING THIS FOG TO GET PROGRESSIVELY DENSE WITH LIGHT WIND FLOW AND CONTINUED SLOW COOLING OF THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF OF THAT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MN TODAY WITH WEAK UPWARD MOTION. TUESDAY LOOKS INTERESTING AS THE COLD FRONT PUNCHES THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON.
A MID LVL S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS TN AND THE SE STATES TODAY WITH MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY NORTH OF THE REGION THOUGH A FEW MINOR IMPULSES ALOFT MAY AID IN TRIGGERING A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS ACROSS E CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM THE LOW CONVECTIVE CHANCES WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRENGTHEING LOW LVL SW FLOW INTO THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
BEFORE CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AS A UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION.
351 AM PDT MON MAR 14 2016 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WILL MAINTAIN STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONVECTION EARLIER TONIGHT MOVES EAST OF ARKANSAS. TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CELLS DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRY LINE AND TO THE EAST OF THE LOW. AS THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. ELEVATED STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COULD POSE AN ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT BEFORE THINGS COME TO AN END. COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW LAGGING A FEW HOURS BEHIND.
SET UP BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER NRN ARKANSAS AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE NWRN CONUS. THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE AREA. IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10-15 MPH /WITH THE HIGHER SPEEDS ACROSS THE WEST/. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL DO THE SAME.
1224 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 926 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016/ THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER AR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE OVERNIGHT. AFTER 19Z THE SHRA/TSRA WILL TAPER OFF AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NE OF THE CWA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY AND MILD AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING TRANSITS THE REGION BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
1157 PM MDT SUN MAR 13 2016 LATEST UPPER AIR DATA SHOW A CLOSED LOW OVER OKLAHOMA WITH A LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA. BEHIND THE TROUGH NORTHWEST WINDS WERE GUSTING 30-40 MPH. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS LAST NIGHT DUE TO THE LOWER DEW POINTS. MONDAY WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. THE LOW DEW POINTS OVER THE WEST TODAY WILL STILL BE THERE MONDAY.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN AR THIS EVENING. THE BULK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST/NORTH OF OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
The cold front has moved south through most of western Montana and central Idaho. However, this same sunshine will warm and destabilize the cooler air mass now in place.
DO THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE AND WITH 925MB TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOW TEENS. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN CUTTING OFF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
543 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016 WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF TO THE EAST. AS ANOTHER NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
219 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. PRESSURE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SNOW IN SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU BUT LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE ACCUMS WILL BE ON VEGETATION. THE MOISTURE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TUE NGT AND WED. THE JET WILL START TUE NGT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
AREA FORECAST DISSCUSSION 403 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FRONT INTO EAST TEXAS.
/ISSUED 344 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016/ Areas of fog will continue through early morning while unseasonably warm thermal ridge expands eastward in wake of departing wave. Cold front sweeps through the area on Tuesday bringing gusty northwesterly winds and much lower dewpoints to the region. Above normal temps continue Wed - Thur while the pattern aloft transitions toward a more amplified West Coast ridge and resultant downstream troughing.
ALONG WITH A PASSING BAROCLINIC BAND AND COLD FRONT WILL HELP INCREASE SNOW COVERAGE OVER OUR SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES.
SET UP BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER NRN ARKANSAS AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE NWRN CONUS. THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE AREA. IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10-15 MPH /WITH THE HIGHER SPEEDS ACROSS THE WEST/. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL USHER IN A SFC COLD FRONT.
THIS COMES AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS TRACKING NEAR THE MEMPHIS AREA AT THIS TIME. BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET RATHER WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN WARMER AS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF A MOSTLY DRY FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
248 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING WILL PIVOT EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COMPACT UPPER LOW CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TRACK EAST AND WILL CROSS NC/VA BETWEEN 00Z TO 12Z TUESDAY. THAT IS CONCERN THAT LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING MAY TAKE THE BITE OUT OF CONVECTION AS IT MOVES EAST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS SLATED TO BUILD IN FROM THE GULF COAST STATES.
AS A FAST MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS BY LATE MORNING ALONG THE PLATEAU. LOWS WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
EXCEPT COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL BE DRAWN NORTH BY TOMORROW'S WAVE. RAPID EWD EXPANSION OF INTENSE MID LVL DRYSLOT FOLLOWS TUE NIGHT- WED NIGHT WITHIN SRN EXTENT OF NWD ELONGATING MID LVL TROUGH FM THE NRN PLAINS TO NRN LAKES AND WILL DROP REMAINING POPS THESE PDS. ADDNL DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHRA PSBL LTR THU AS ELONGATING MID LVL TROUGH SHIFTS ACRS THE AREA. WARM FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY NE THROUGH NRN INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. SECOND LOW OVER MO IS ALSO EXPECTED TO LIFT NE TODAY CAUSING SHRA AT FWA THIS AFTN AND VEERING WINDS TO NW THIS EVE WHICH MAY CLEAR OUT THE TERMINALS FOR AWHILE MONDAY NIGHT, THOUGH FOG AGAIN LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT GIVEN RIDGE AXIS MOVG ACROSS THE AREA.
622 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY WEATHER AND A GENERAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
COOLEST JUST ABOVE FREEZING CENTRAL AND E AND UPPER 30S W. BUT COOLER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH MODERATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS TODAY WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLIDING ACROSS MN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE BETTER HEIGHT FALLS APPROACH THE WESTERN U. THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS A DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MN. AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE U. WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INTO THE CWA ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.
AFTER A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES BY TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT AND INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING LEADING TO A STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO SCEC BY THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APRROACHES.
555 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 HYDRO AS LOW PRESSURE LEAVES LOWER MICHIGAN LIGHT RAIN WILL DIMINISH TODAY. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE COOLER WEATHER MOVES BACK IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS DIMINISHING SLOWLY IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS LOW PRESSURE NEAR BEH MOVES NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE GONE BY THE AFTERNOON BUT LEFT A SLGT CHC POP IN TO COVER THE PASSING OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SFC AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL INCREASE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS ILLINOIS/INDIANA. GIVEN THE INVERTED NATURE OF THE TROUGH.