Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper ridge building to our west will help temperatures will get very warm in the middle of the week, but an afternoon thunderstorm is still possible almost each day until a cold front passes through late in the week. High pressure should provide a fair and dry weekend. However, this MCS should start to dip a little more to the south as the upper ridge behind it pumps up slightly, esp by 12Z. Still, central PA remains in ring of fire on the eastern periphery of upper ridge, so can't rule out scattered additional convection either late Tuesday or Tuesday night.
Since the upper ridge will be parked right overhead again tomorrow and low levels winds look to be weaker than today, we should be able to heat up a degree or two versus today's readings. Therefore I went ahead and expanded the heat advisory eastward to include more of the Upper Cumberland counties for Tuesday, with only the highest Plateau counties left out.
625 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 (Tonight through Tuesday night) High pressure continues to dominate over Texas. The subtropical ridge has shifted slightly to the east. The low level flow continues from the south with a fairly tight pressure gradient.
The mid-level synoptic pattern across the CONUS this afternoon consists of troughing over the western US and a ridge axis extending from the southeastern US toward the western Great Lakes region. At the surface, an area of low pressure is centered in northern Colorado/southern Wyoming.
(Tomorrow through Monday) Upper level ridge of high pressure. is progged to become highly amplified across much of the Eastern CONUS into mid week in response to a low pressure system. the low pressure system is forecast to shift eastward across Canada. while the ridge of high pressure builds back westward and becomes highly amplified over the Central U. the dome of high pressure looks to be centered over the Central/Southern Plains.
Upper level ridging remains in place across the region centered over the Tennessee Valley through the near term period.
The passage of a cold front will usher in cooler temperatures today.
141 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2022 Upper trough over the northwestern CONUS continues to push energy into the northern plains, helping to fuel clusters of thunderstorms across the Dakotas. At the surface, low pressure sits over central SD, and the cold front has made its way through the CWA. Beneath the cooler airmass, highs today will be only in the 60s and 70s, warmest across south central SD. Westerly winds will be breezy, especially across portions of northeastern WY, as a tight pressure gradient sets up north of low pressure across CO. The upper low will move to our north on Wednesday, creating a tight pressure gradient across ND and northern SD. A strong upper ridge amplifies over the central states later this week and into the weekend, resulting in very warm and mostly dry conditions.
313 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 The upper level subtropical ridge will continue to churn over the southeastern CONUS today allowing for a weak mid-level monsoon moisture plume to advect over the area. The upper trough to our west will begin to lift to the northeast on Wednesday, as the upper high over the southeastern CONUS, starts to expand towards the Central Plains once again.
The focus then shifts to our our west early Tuesday morning as an upper trough progresses across the InterMountain West. A cold front is expected to move through the region during the day. Wednesday will remain fairly quiet with slightly cooler temperatures as the upper trough passes to our north.
Rain chances increase toward the end of the work week with a cold front. An anomalously strong upper level ridge will eventually be centered over the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. During the warm, the warm front may be near our northeast border where some lower level clouds may linger due to the recent convection. These dewpoints will combine with forecast temperatures into the lower to mid 90s to result in heat index values in the 105 to 110 range. For Tuesday night, the mid level ridge will be in place. Ridge still fairly amplified through the day Wednesday, providing highs in the low to middle 90s, with dewpoints in the middle 70s. Wednesday night, the ridge starts to breakdown, becoming more positively tilted.
Heat advisories and/or warnings look likely needed Wednesday as ridging builds further and heat index values rise to 100F+ across the majority of the forecast area.
259 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 Water vapor satellite imagery and 500mb analysis show a fairly amplified pattern over the lower 48 with a stout upper trough positioned over the northwest CONUS and a strong upper ridge across the southeast CONUS. Today, most of Kansas will continue to feel more influence from the upper ridge with widespread afternoon temperatures in the upper 90s. Cooler mid-level temperatures should allow for a better chance at storm development, though trends have convection more focused across the eastern portions of Kansas.
1146 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022 The H5 trough continues to get pushed east by the PacNW trough making landfall. As the trough moves across the state, it will bring along a cold front, which will bring temperatures downward tonight and tomorrow. The colder air will bring most areas near or below freezing tonight and tomorrow night, which will help limit the remaining snowpack from melting off.
The mid-level synoptic pattern across the CONUS this afternoon consists of troughing over the western US and a ridge axis extending from the southeastern US toward the western Great Lakes region. At the surface, an area of low pressure is centered in northern Colorado/southern Wyoming. A better chance for storms will occur on Wednesday as the front sags a little farther southward over the CWA while the mid-level trough travels across the northern US and southern Canada.
Today Through Wednesday Night A ridge of high pressure will remain centered just to our east over the Tennessee Valley. Under the ridge, summer heat will continue today and Wednesday, with little to no chance of rain. Maximum heat indices will approach 105 degrees in the northeast closest to the ridge this afternoon, and kept a Heat Advisory going in Lawrence, Randolph, and Sharp Counties.
Tuesday features an upper trough lifting out of the Central Rockies which in turn nudges a weak dryline east toward an AMA-HOB line by peak heating. Temperatures will moderate back into the low to mid 90s on the Caprock, but still hover at or above 100 for most spots east of the escarpment across the Rolling Plains. The ridge of high pressure currently over the SE CONUS will begin to build back to the west across our area and into New Mexico during the day Wednesday, pushing the trough currently spread across the Desert Southwest to the north.
In the bigger picture, WV imagery shows the upper ridge has re- centered over the southeast CONUS, with a large trough over the Rockies, putting West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under a col of sorts. For those who like cooler weather, relief has arrived. As a result of the shifting ridge, thicknesses will come down today, shaving 2-3F off this afternoon's highs and keeping much of the area under triple digits. Wednesday, thicknesses continue decreasing, w/highs maybe a degree cooler on average than Tuesday, but still 6-7F above normal.
An upper level high will continue to dominate the area through Wednesday.
Discussion: We will remain under the large upper high for the short term period. A heat advisory remains in effect for much of the area outside of the higher terrain, and right now the covered area still looks reasonable for the most part but will add the southern Plateau counties. Given the high CAPE/strong mid level lapse rate/high DCAPE environment, any storm that does develop will have the potential to become strong to severe with damaging winds the primary threat. Record Highs for Today: Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 06-14 97(1914) 96(1943) 94(2016) 95(2016).
The better scenario has most models developing strong to severe thunderstorms through the mid to late evening north of the frontal boundary as the low level jet strengthens, then continuing overnight and becoming widespread as they push north of the Platte River valley.
Upper level flow continues out of the southwest with a ridge over the Great Lakes and a trough in the Pacific northwest. This should lift a warm front back to the north and stall out around K-96 to I-70 corridors. Kept some slight POPs in the forecast for our northern counties in the event a rogue storm can break the cap north of the warm front but the chances of this look low. Another upper level trough will develop out West by the weekend, but the intense ridge across the central CONUS will prevent this trough from advancing east toward the Central Plains. A warm front will lift northward in the afternoon leading to strong southerly winds for all the terminals. There is a small chance of a VCTS for Hays if any storms can develop along the warm front between 23Z-02Z.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): An inverted trough/upper-level low swirling over northern Mexico will develop a small 250 mb jet streak over Deep South Texas this afternoon. As a side note: KBRO has had a low of 80 degrees or warmer the past 6 nights.
1128 PM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022 A trough of low pressure will continue crossing the area overnight and will move east into the Maritimes on Tuesday. High pressure will build over the region on Wednesday.
CAMs are also projecting several potential waves for storms that could push in into the forecast area, rounding the southeastern edge of the central High pressure. As this wave comes in contact with a highly unstable airmass, with weak subsidence being the only suppressor for storms otherwise, widespread convection could form, but is far from guaranteed due to the mid-level ridging.
325 AM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022 High pressure builds in the wake of a cold front today and holds through midweek, bringing generally dry conditions and moderating temperatures.
/NEW/ /Through Tuesday Night/ The upper ridge center has shifted east and now dominates the southeastern US, while deep southerly flow on its western flank has resumed across the Southern Plains. A subtropical upper low spiraling across northeastern Mexico and the Rio Grande Valley will slowly drift into Texas over the next 24 hours, accompanied by increasing cirrus. The shift in the ridge axis and increasing cloud cover will be enough to shave a few degrees off of high temperatures compared to previous days, with most locations only reaching the mid to upper 90s this afternoon.
(Today) The unseasonably hot/humid wx pattern continues this Tue, as a strong upper ridge axis remains centered near the central TN Valley, while high pressure at the sfc remains layered from the southern Atlantic Coast into the eastern Gulf. Dew pts are also expected to remain in the lower/mid 70s, which should translate into max heat indices around 103-107F.
Upper level flow continues out of the southwest with a ridge over the Great Lakes and a trough in the Pacific northwest. This should lift a warm front back to the north and stall out around K-96 to I-70 corridors. Kept some slight POPs in the forecast for our northern counties in the event a rogue storm can break the cap north of the warm front but the chances of this look low.
A warm front is expected to lift northward today across the region. A moist airmass, steep mid-level lapse rates, and extreme instability will be in place, but a strong cap associated with the incoming ridge may hinder convection. These storms are expected to move north with the lifting warm front, but generally stay south of the US-30 corridor within the severe watch area.
1213 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 (Tonight through Tuesday night) High pressure continues to dominate over Texas. The subtropical ridge has shifted slightly to the east. The low level flow continues from the south with a fairly tight pressure gradient.
High pressure will remain over the area for the next couple of days.
406 AM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022 Lingering clouds this morning in the wake of the convective activity that clipped the area will break up into the afternoon hours as a warm front temporarily suppressed south by these earlier storms surges north through the area as upper ridging continues to build into the area. Humidity levels will also increase rather dramatically today in the wake of this warm front with surface dewpoints reach 70F or more. The hot and humid conditions are still expected to build into Wednesday as the upper ridge pivots overhead.
Thanks to the lowering snow levels and general cooling temps across the region, river levels have begun to slowly recede.
It may end up being a degree warmer in a few locations today due to somewhat deeper boundary layer mixing and dewpoints mixing down around 70 by peak heating.
A trough will continue to push trough the area today as low pressure deepens over southern Manitoba. Another windy day is in store for the region on Wednesday as low pressure starts to lift north but we remain in a tight pressure gradient. Building high pressure over the area should lead to a quiet weather across the area Wednesday night with diminishing winds.
(Today) Upper pattern begins to amplify some today as as the upper ridge expands across the SE while an upper low across the NW CONUS slides east.
Low temperatures will range from the upper 50s in Colorado to the lower 70s in Hill City. Surface front will move through the area on Tuesday with temperatures closer to normal, ranging from the middle 80s in Colorado to the lower 90s in Hill City and Tribune with later frontal passage. Low temperatures will range from around 50 in northeast Colorado to the lower 60s in Hill City. Upper trough axis will be moving out on Wednesday with a return to more of a zonal flow.
The hot temperatures will continue today with highs climbing into the mid 90s, as upper ridging prevails over the region. Another warm night is on tap with lows in the low to mid 70s.
Today: Cold front entering central SD will progress eastward into the FA thru the morning hours.
Behind the low westerly winds will develop and bring drier air into the area with gusts this afternoon from the west at 35mph. Cooler temps with mostly dry conditions tomorrow with slight chances along the northern border late tomorrow afternoon as the upper low approaches.
1148 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Water vapor imagery continues to show a trough over the Pacific Northwest.
An upper level ridge which currently covers much of the southeast U. The upper level ridge will continue to build northward tonight through Wednesday morning.
400 AM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022 A weak front will linger around the Mid-Atlantic region through Wednesday while high pressure builds to the northeast and southwest.
Water vapor imagery shows us in southwest flow aloft with the main trof off to our west expected to begin lifting northeastward today. The cold front that is expected to come through today looks to have sped up and will likely make it most of the way if not all of the way through the area before stalling out later today with winds becoming northerly in its wake. This would place most of the precip behind the sfc front where 700 mb temps are cooler and therefore there is less capping. Highs will be "cooler" Wednesday and closer to average in the mid to upper 80s.
Temperatures are running a couple of degrees cooler than this time yesterday and dewpoints are also a couple of degrees lower. An upper level high will continue to dominate the area through Wednesday.
Also, a much cooler air mass from the northwest is moving in behind the low causing snow levels to lower. The cooler air mass moving into the region will also cause some stronger west winds today. Thanks to the lowering snow levels and general cooling temps across the region, river levels have begun to slowly recede.
605 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 (Today) Upper pattern begins to amplify some today as as the upper ridge expands across the SE while an upper low across the NW CONUS slides east.
Heat index values will still reach the lower 100s so precaution should be taken when outdoors. /33/ (Wednesday Night through Tuesday) An upper-level ridge will remain the primary synoptic feature of our weather pattern.
High pressure builds today through Wednesday with a gradual warming trend.
612 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 (Today and tonight) Early this morning, west central Texas remains between a deepening upper-level trough over the Rockies and a broad ridge over the southeast US. At the surface, lee-side troughing east of the Rockies will strengthen the pressure gradient and keep strong southerly winds in place today.
Satellite imagery this morning shows clouds banked up against the Siskiyous, the Umpqua Divide and along the higher terrain west of I-5. Overall, conditions will be warmer and drier today with skies clearing for most areas later this morning. Though temperatures will trend warmer today (mid 70s west side valleys, mid 60s for east side valleys), afternoon highs will still be around 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. Flow aloft turns southwest and the thermal trough gets pushed inland in response to another large scale upper trough approaching the Pacific Northwest coast. With the thermal trough pushing inland, expect a breezy afternoon across the area, especially east of the Cascades and across northern California where gusts of 25 to 30 mph will be common.
220 AM PDT Tue Jun 14 2022 Dry and warmer weather continues through mid-week. Another weather system will bring cooler weather and a chance of mountain showers and thunderstorms by the end of the week into the weekend. It's still looking like Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week for most of the region, though it does look like the timing of the upstream trough has sped up a bit, so it's not out of the question that Delta Breeze influenced areas may peak today.
/15/NF/ Today and Tonight: The hot temperatures will continue today with highs climbing into the mid 90s, as upper ridging prevails over the region. Another warm night is on tap with lows in the low to mid 70s.
A quiet but very warm start to this Tuesday, as 9AM temperatures already reaching the low to mid 80s. The afternoon shower and storm activity will likely come as a welcome relief from the oppressive heat this afternoon, as temperatures soar to the low 90s at the coast to 95-96F over the interior.
08Z water vapor imagery showed a closed upper low over the northern Rockies with upper ridging centered over the MS delta. Surface obs showed a low pressure area over central SD with a front stretching into northwest KS. Models are in agreement with the upper low pressure system slowly propagating east along the U.
A northwest flow aloft will persist over the region today as the overall trough continues slowly moving eastward while a ridge of high pressure in the eastern Pacific nudges closer to the PacNW. This will provide clearing skies tonight and some cool temperatures especially in the higher elevations overnight. A new upper level trough of low pressure will set up off the coast on Wednesday and begin to turn the flow aloft to southwesterly.
An area of low pressure moving across the intermountain west region will maintain temperatures across the lower deserts near normal through Wednesday.
(Today and tonight) Early this morning, west central Texas remains between a deepening upper-level trough over the Rockies and a broad ridge over the southeast US. At the surface, lee-side troughing east of the Rockies will strengthen the pressure gradient and keep strong southerly winds in place today.
/issued 357 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): An inverted trough/upper-level low swirling over northern Mexico will develop a small 250 mb jet streak over Deep South Texas this afternoon. As a side note: KBRO has had a low of 80 degrees or warmer the past 6 nights.
632 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 Water vapor satellite imagery and 500mb analysis show a fairly amplified pattern over the lower 48 with a stout upper trough positioned over the northwest CONUS and a strong upper ridge across the southeast CONUS. Today, most of Kansas will continue to feel more influence from the upper ridge with widespread afternoon temperatures in the upper 90s. Cooler mid-level temperatures should allow for a better chance at storm development, though trends have convection more focused across the eastern portions of Kansas.
Several deterministic models also have 700mb to 850mb winds in the 50 to 65 kt range on Wednesday into Wednesday evening on the backside of the low. Limiting factors include the role of increased cloud cover and showers in the northeast, and the beginning of warm air advection further west ahead of an advancing ridge and marginal lapse rates which may limit the ability for stronger winds to mix down. Higher confidence exists across the higher terrain of the Little Rockies and Big Sheep Mountains as a result, compared with lower elevations, with decreasing confidence further northeast. For the end of the week and upcoming weekend, upper ridging looks to build across the region which will lead to hot temperatures and dry weather.
/issued 313 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022/ The upper level subtropical ridge will continue to churn over the southeastern CONUS today allowing for a weak mid-level monsoon moisture plume to advect over the area. The upper trough to our west will begin to lift to the northeast on Wednesday, as the upper high over the southeastern CONUS, starts to expand towards the Central Plains once again.
401 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2022 Isolated rain showers continue over western and central Wyoming overnight as the region sits under an unusually strong trough for this time of year. Afternoon winds will again be gusty, mainly east of the Divide, as a ridge will begin building over the western CONUS. The weather looks relatively quiet to start the period with ridging over the area. And with the ridge axis over the area, this should decrease the persistent wind over the area.
and Wednesday A warm front over Northern Illinois at 09z today will move northward during the day. East winds flowing over the cool lake will slow the northward movement of the front, as will the low clouds that will initially cover the area. Dewpoints in the low 70s will make for heat indices up to about 100F in that area. Further north it will still be very warm and humid, with heat indices in the low to mid 90s away from the lake and bay. Wednesday should be very warm and humid once more, with a good chance of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening as a cold front approaches.
519 AM MDT Tue Jun 14 2022 Upper trough over the northwestern CONUS continues to push energy into the northern plains, helping to fuel clusters of thunderstorms across the Dakotas. At the surface, low pressure sits over central SD, and the cold front has made its way through the CWA. Beneath the cooler airmass, highs today will be only in the 60s and 70s, warmest across south central SD. Westerly winds will be breezy, especially across portions of northeastern WY, as a tight pressure gradient sets up north of low pressure across CO. The upper low will move to our north on Wednesday, creating a tight pressure gradient across ND and northern SD. A strong upper ridge amplifies over the central states later this week and into the weekend, resulting in very warm and mostly dry conditions.
644 AM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022 High pressure builds in the wake of a cold front today and holds through midweek, bringing generally dry conditions and moderating temperatures.
407 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 08Z water vapor imagery showed a closed upper low over the northern Rockies with upper ridging centered over the MS delta. Surface obs showed a low pressure area over central SD with a front stretching into northwest KS. Models are in agreement with the upper low pressure system slowly propagating east along the U.
High pressure will return to Utah and southwest Wyoming by midweek, resulting in a warming trend through the remainder of the work week. A strong low pressure system will begin to approach the area by late week into the upcoming weekend, increasing winds and allowing deep moisture to make its way into the area.