Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Another warm afternoon on tap but the upper low across the TX vicinity will begin to spread moisture further north throughout the day. An upper level low over AR will be spinning and this will open the Gulf of Mexico with southerly winds 6kts or less.
Adjusted highs very slightly towards a blend of the ECMWF (which performed quite well yesterday in the southern valley), CONSShort, and CONSMOS, all of which show the warmer temps lying in the central and northern half of the CWA. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 82 68 83 69 / 30 60 50 70 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 82 68 82 68 / 30 70 50 70 40 Oak Ridge, TN 67 82 67 81 67 / 30 70 50 70 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 83 65 82 65 / 10 60 30 70 30.
104 PM EDT Sat Jun 5 2021 Ridge of higher pressure and antecedent dry conditions will continue to produce limited cloud cover/VFR conditions.
1213 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021 (Today and tonight) The broad, weak low pressure trough, currently seen over central Texas on the water vapor satellite imagery, is producing light rain across north Texas. As this low shifts N/NE towards the Red River, showers and thunderstorm chances diminish and shift eastward by this evening. Areas south/east of I-44 are expected to be cooler than western and northern Oklahoma, with highs in the 70s. Tonight, the low will reach central Oklahoma which will keep some cloudcover over the area.
1037 PM EDT Sat Jun 5 2021 A breezy night for much of the Lower Keys, with some locations gusting to near 25 mph. The Bermuda High was supposed to provide a pulse of winds this evening, but the observed winds across the Lower Keys, Smith Shoal, and Sand Key are a few knots higher than expected. Low-level cloud tracers south of west-central Cuba reveal a mesoscale trough axis, likely aiding the multiple rounds of afternoon and evening convection across Cuba. This micro-trough enhanced the gradient for portions of the Lower Keys. A dome of high pressure centered over the Western Atlantic will be the predominant weather feature for the next five days.
A large high pressure sitting off to the east has held up westerly flow over much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. Our area finds itself on the northwest edge of the large high pressure. The pattern begins changing tomorrow as an upper level trough held up by this ridging to the east breaks through the block and begins making its way toward the north and east. The highest probabilities of showers and storms continues to be east of I-35.
Scattered showers and some thunderstorms will be possible Sunday, especially in the afternoon, as an upper low moves across the region. /Issued 219 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021/ Multiple vorticity maxima continue to rotate around the weak upper low broadly centered over central TX.
503 PM EDT Sat Jun 5 2021 High pressure will build aloft and to our southeast.
635 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021 (This evening through Sunday) Pesky upper low, centered near the Red River of south central Oklahoma this afternoon will drift north tonight into the day Sunday.
953 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021 (Issued 952 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021) The upper low over the srn Great Plains will open up and begin its slow trek to the north reaching MO on Mon. The increase in moisture and humidity will result in slightly cooler temps for Sun but with highs still around 90F. The closed low over TX will begin to lift north tonight into Sunday and start to bringing some deeper moisture into the area.
Upper low just to the east continues to keep lingering mid/high clouds over the eastern Panhandles today. Overall, temperatures still are expected to be in the mid 80s today across the Panhandles, as high pressure continues to strengthen over the Rockies. Things change a little bit tomorrow as the low will start to move further east and take a negative tilt, allowing more of a northwest flow to return over the area. Another thing we will have to pay close attention to, is the dryline setup, with temperatures warming into the mid 80s to lower 90s and dewpoints from Amarillo to Guymon possibly reaching the low 60s, we will be conditionally unstable with pretty good ML CAPE values 1500-3000 J/kg available, if the cap can be broken.
/EC/ A closed low system anchored across NE Texas has been tracking very slowly. Though pesky showers have been limited to the west and south today, rain will become more widespread this evening into overnight hours as the closed low begins to lift some across parts of SE Louisiana. /JNE/ Tomorrow night through Saturday: The forecast period starts off tomorrow night with a cutoff low meandering over the ArkLaTex while northern stream jet energy carves out a trough over the Pacific Northwest.
The low pressure that has brought northern Arizona isolated to scattered high based showers and storms over the last week will exit into the southern Plains by Sunday. A ridge building behind the departed low will usher in drier mid-level air from west to east by Sunday evening. There is moderate confidence in these conditions as longer-range ensemble guidance is showing troughing to the west of Arizona that keeps the region under southwesterly winds aloft mixing to surface each afternoon.
00Z TAFs Scattered convection continues at this time over the Victoria Crossroads, assisted by a weak upper level short wave trough to the south of the mid level low over north Texas. Concur with the deterministic runs that the axis of the upper level low pressure system will move slowly east of the CWA during the period, along with increasing subsidence over the CWA.
Concur with the deterministic runs that the axis of the upper level low pressure system will move slowly east of the CWA during the period, along with increasing subsidence over the CWA.
609 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021 Cloud cover was increasing from the south this afternoon as moisture continues to stream northward ahead of an upper level low pressure system near the Arklatex. While there are no decent surface boundaries to focus precipitation, we expect to see an uptick in showers on Sunday as the upper low continues to drift northward into Oklahoma.
1006 PM EDT Sat Jun 5 2021 High pressure will continue offshore through the period producing warm humid weather with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The upper level trough broadens before finally pushing offshore Sunday, which will limit overall covg of precip. Elongated High at the SFC to the east and a weak trough over VA provides srly flow through the period with moist advection and pwats 1. Perhaps slightly better chances for organized showers/storms by mid/late week as ECM indicating broad trough over Great Lakes sliding s and e through the end of the week. The GLAMP/LAV/CON SHORT/ and NBM cloud forecasts are indicating that the low clouds could persist through the morning with a return to VFR delayed until late morning or early afternoon.
824 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021 An upper level low pressure system continues to be located near the Red River Valley this evening. /issued 307 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021/ GOES-16 Satellite trends this afternoon place an upper level low over Northeast Texas. Regional WSR-88D radar trends indicate scattered to numerous showers with some embedded thunderstorms this afternoon over the Lower Mississippi Valley with the best coverage occurring south of I-40 over North Mississippi thus far. As of 2 PM CDT, temperatures across the Mid- South are in the lower to middle 80s across many locations.
SPC meso page continues to show generally 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE over much of the state with shear continuing to be on the low side still. The mentioned cold front starting to show up nicely across central MT where storms are already firing. With the higher cape areas, some hail is possible although expected size to just be near that severe criteria of around an inch. The remainder of Sunday looks breezy, cooler with seasonal high temperatures, and drying conditions. The combination of winds gusting to 40 MPH and RH dropping into the low 20s has prompted a Fire Weather Watch for Sunday afternoon into the evening across much of the CWA.
An upper level low positioned along the Red River in northwest Texas continues to shift east northeastward at a snails pace early this evening. Lift associated with the upper low has produced a cluster of showers with embedded thunderstorms across far southeast Oklahoma this afternoon and evening.
Southeasterly flow will begin to increase later tonight and Sunday which will keep the sea breeze closer to the coast Sunday afternoon and therefore the highest rain chances are expected generally along and west of the I-75 corridor during the afternoon and evening. Persistent high pressure across the area will continue to control weather conditions. Light southerly flow will prevail as ridge axis remains over south-central Florida through today. Going into Sunday, the high pressure ridge axis moves north as closed low pressure area over Texas begins to travel east-northeast.
833 PM EDT Sat Jun 5 2021 High pressure will build aloft and to our southeast.
706 PM EDT Sat Jun 5 2021 High pressure will continue offshore through the period producing warm humid weather with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The upper level trough broadens before finally pushing offshore Sunday, which will limit overall covg of precip. Elongated High at the SFC to the east and a weak trough over VA provides srly flow through the period with moist advection and pwats 1. Perhaps slightly better chances for organized showers/storms by mid/late week as ECM indicating broad trough over Great Lakes sliding s and e through the end of the week. The GLAMP/LAV/CON SHORT/ and NBM cloud forecasts are indicating that the low clouds could persist through the morning with a return to VFR delayed until late morning or early afternoon.
714 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021 (This evening through Sunday) The upper level low over central Texas will keep hit and miss showers and thunderstorms over much of the area tonight and Sunday. Otherwise, expect warmer temperatures with overnight lows in the mid 60s and highs Sunday in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
Cloudy conditions tomorrow will help keep temps a bit cooler than today, with highs reaching around the upper 70s to near 80.
Isolated SHRA possible along the coast right around sunrise, but the precipitation coverage for tomorrow af- ternoon/evening should be even less than today as the upper low tracks further N/NE away from the area.
The upper low to our west should slowly move northward, being situated over Oklahoma on Sunday. The higher rain chances will be west of the Interstate 65 corridor.
/issued 235 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night): The 500 mb low pressure centered near the TX/OK border will continue to slowly move off to the northeast through the short term. With the low lifting, drier air will filter into deep south Texas with the best chance for any lingering precipitation through early this evening.
613 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021 Large scale ridge influence continues through Sunday with well- above normal temperatures for early June. GOES water vapor imagery showing our next weather influencer heading north out of TX/OK - a large low pressure area.
Large scale high pressure will continue to dominate the atmospheric column. Warm and quiet weather will continue Sunday with lingering high pressure, and consistent swly flow.
A weak trough moving across the Northern Rockies will push a weak shallow cold front into northern and central Utah tonight. The ridge over Colorado area will remain in place and as a new trough forms over the PACNW the first half of this week, southwest winds will sweep across the region.
The cold front continues to move through the forecast area this evening. Today's cold frontal passage will further cool temperatures on Sunday, with values slightly below seasonal normals.
AC Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 82 69 82 69 / 30 60 50 70 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 82 68 82 68 / 30 70 40 70 40 Oak Ridge, TN 67 82 66 81 67 / 30 70 40 70 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 83 65 82 65 / 10 60 30 70 30.
An upper level low was over the Red River valley per the 20Z water vapor imagery. At the surface, low pressure was gradually deepening along the lee of the central rockies with high pressure in the lower MS river valley.
/issued 243 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021/ The closed upper low that has been a persistent feature over Texas for several days is making slow progress to the northeast and should be mostly over Oklahoma at sunrise Sunday with the center between Tulsa and Joplin at the end of the day tomorrow. Increasing heights and thicknesses should see an increase in high temperatures near 3 degrees warmer over those of this afternoon.
730 PM EDT Sat Jun 5 2021 High pressure will build aloft and to our southeast.
536 PM MDT Sat Jun 5 2021 Across the region this afternoon, skies are sunny with a trough of low pressure sitting along the CO/KS/NE border. Looking at the latest RAP40 500 mb analysis with mid level water vapor does show remnants of the an upper ridge receding west as a cutoff upper low makes a slow trek northward from the southern Plains.
Upper low spinning over TX will play a big role in our weather the next bunch of days.
Goes-16 satellite imagery shows a weak upper-level trough situated over the GOM which has kept mostly mid/high level clouds over Florida this evening. High pressure ridge axis will begin to lift north from central FL and some drier air will move in from the east. Max temps in the mid to upper 80s coast to the lower 90s interior. As the ridge axis continues northward and settles in to the Southeast, winds will become gradually easterly into midweek. At the same time, mid- level high pressure building in to the region will help usher in pockets of drier air, with PWATs falling to near or below 1.
131 AM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 High pressure will continue offshore through the period producing warm humid weather with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
909 PM PDT Sat Jun 5 2021 Weakening high pressure over the Southwest will bring cooling through Sunday, while onshore flow maintains a marine layer and associated clouds west of the mountains with gusty westerly winds through and below the passes.
An upper low continues to spin over OK/TX with broad and deep south-southwest flow across the Gulf states northward toward the OH Valley.
256 AM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Water vapor imagery shows an upper level low centered north of the Dallas Fort Worth area. Clouds were slowly spreading northward ahead of this upper level low across northern Missouri. The GFS is running 4 to 5 degrees cooler than other models with higher dewpoints. The 500 MB low over north Texas is forecast to slowly lift northward into eastern Kansas and Oklahoma and push the main 200 mb flow farther north across the northern tier of the CONUS with our area slowly coming under the influence of vorticity maxima rotating around the upper level low.
100 AM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021 (This evening through Sunday) The upper level low over central Texas will keep hit and miss showers and thunderstorms over much of the area tonight and Sunday. Otherwise, expect warmer temperatures with overnight lows in the mid 60s and highs Sunday in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
1053 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021 Large scale ridge influence continues through Sunday with well- above normal temperatures for early June. GOES water vapor imagery showing our next weather influencer heading north out of TX/OK - a large low pressure area. A slow increase in dewpoints will team up with the weakening/ filling low pressure area heading north to enhance instability and forcing for showers. By Monday afternoon, the low beings to provide the weak lift to initiate instability in a weakly capped environment in central/swrn WI.
The westerly flow will buckle in response to an upper low offshore on Sunday, therefore winds on Sunday will be considerably less than today for all areas. It will be partly to mostly cloudy during the day with in the 50s over the mountains and 60s to lower 70s in the lower elevations. Cooler than seasonable temperatures prevail then Sunday and Monday, approaching 10 degrees below their normals in spots.
844 PM PDT Sat Jun 5 2021 Weakening high pressure over the Southwest will bring cooling through Sunday, while onshore flow maintains a marine layer and associated clouds west of the mountains with gusty westerly winds through and below the passes.
There was still a decent amount of dry air present in the mid-levels during the 00Z sounding as we remain wedged between the ridge to the east and the cutoff low to the west. Expect daytime highs in the upper 80s and low 90s, with overnight lows in the low 70s.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to form into this evening with a broad upper-level low pressure system to the northwest slowly moving eastward.
300 AM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021 A relatively unorganized mid and upper low pressure system is plodding through the ArkLaTex. That said, there looks to be enough instability and forcing from the low pressure system to the south to kick off some isolated shower or thunderstorms during the afternoon.
/Today through Monday/ Upper low cut off from the main jet stream continues to slowly drift newd across the upper Red River valley of OK/TX. Abundant lift and deep-layer moisture associated with the upper low will keep convection a likely probability through Monday, especially during the daylight hours, where daytime heating will bring at least some marginal instability to aid the convection.
Upper low across cntl Tx will continue to lift to the nne toward OK, AR and eventually KS/MO by Monday morning. Some guidance is depicting a disturbance moving sewd down the backside of the upper low with an associated complex of storms.
The upper level low that's currently centered nearby Texas slowly will drift northeastward but will remain in the central southern part of the CONUS. Otherwise, due to the extensive cloud coverage, lowered the high and low temps a bit.
247 AM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021 As of 06z the center of the upper level low was situated between Wichita Falls and Fort Worth as it slowly lifts to the northeast. With the upper level low moving away from the area today, heights aloft will begin to slowly build. /WCI Our nearby upper low will have made it to the KS/MO border by Monday morning with northwesterly flow aloft evident across WTX.
Areas of light to moderate rain will continue to spread across southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas overnight in response to approaching upper low. An upper level low positioned along the Red River in northwest Texas continues to shift east northeastward at a snails pace early this evening. Lift associated with the upper low has produced a cluster of showers with embedded thunderstorms across far southeast Oklahoma this afternoon and evening.
313 AM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Dry conditions are expected to end for all of central Indiana over the course of today as the high pressure induced subsidence influencing the dry weather will be pushed eastward over the Atlantic. With the more significant lift still well south of the region within the upper level low, any convection or showers will remain scattered this afternoon and evening, and should weaken, and/or die out prior to 04Z tonight. Similar weather is expected tomorrow, with slightly more coverage as the upper level low nears central Indiana. High temperatures are currently projected to be in the low to mid 80s for Monday.
424 AM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through late week. Today: Aloft, riding will be centered just southeast of the forecast area, placing the region barely within the southwest flow between the ridge and an upper low over the south/central plains.
Recent UL ridge development overhead combined with an established wrn Atlc ridge wl bring a drier more stable pattern early this week.
240 AM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Strong southeast flow regime sets up today as a trough over Texas begins to slowly lift northward. The additional dry air and robust surface heating will allow temperature to climb up well into the low 90s with isolated mid 90s.
255 AM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Mid to upper ridging will remain prominent across the region as South Florida remains under the western periphery of Atlantic subtropical high pressure. Highs will range from the upper 80s in the east to the lower (or perhaps even mid) 90s for western inland areas.
1010 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021 (This evening through Sunday) Pesky upper low, centered near the Red River of south central Oklahoma this afternoon will drift north tonight into the day Sunday.
355 AM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Early this morning, a modestly amplified upper RIDGE prevailed over the central CONUS. At the surface, an area of high pressure was centered over the southeastern CONUS with an open flow from the Gulf of Mexico into our region. The upper RIDGE is expected to amplify concurrently as the mostly cutoff storm system over OK drifts more northeastward towards MO during this period.
339 AM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Strong Bermuda high pressure dominates the weather pattern through middle of the week. A cold front will approach from the north late in the week. Bermuda high pressure establishes itself off the Southeast coast today leading to continued southerly flow/hot conditions and increasing humidity. Temperatures will climb into the lower 90s away from the waters this afternoon. Slightly cooler at the beaches (80s) due to local sea breezes.
At the surface, cold front has begun moving through our CWA: winds are northwesterly at 20 mph gusting to 40 mph across the northwestern CWA, while the rest of the area has breezy southerly winds. Cold front will cross the CWA early this morning and then stall across south central SD. Pressure rises of 3-4 mb/3 hr behind the front will create gusty northwesterly winds across the CWA this morning, but winds will diminish and become more easterly as high pressure sinks into the area. Afternoon highs will be cooler, yet still plenty warm - ranging from the 70s across the NW and Black Hills to the lower 90s across south central SD. A gradually deepening trough off the west coast will result in southwesterly upper-level flow over the northern plains through much of this week.
211 AM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 High pressure will build aloft and to our southeast.
325 AM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 Building high pressure over the eastern CONUS will bring very warm to hot conditions to the North Country today and Monday with an isolated afternoon shower or storm possible.
Large scale pattern features a broad upper trough over the northern Rockies. At the surface, low pressure was centered over western ND with high pressure off to the southeast. In the meantime, the system over southern Canada will bring a relatively weak cold front through the Dakotas. As the low level jet ramps up increasing boundary layer moisture convergence will ensure.
We must stress that temperatures will still be above 100 F in the lower portions of the Grand Canyon on Sunday. The low pressure that has brought northern Arizona isolated to scattered high based showers and storms over the last week will exit into the southern Plains by Sunday. A ridge building behind the departed low will usher in drier mid-level air from west to east by Sunday evening. There is moderate confidence in these conditions as longer-range ensemble guidance is showing troughing to the west of Arizona that keeps the region under southwesterly winds aloft mixing to surface each afternoon.
Main concern continues to be for the threat of flooding across portions of the area with a moist airmass still in place with upper level low in Northeast Texas. Rain chances will drop significantly tonight and increase again tomorrow mainly over Central and South Central Louisiana as the low drifts to the northeast.