Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
MVFR visibility on fog may form too, but the low cloud deck may inhibit fog development. Upper level lift and an increase in moisture will result in rain chances for southeastern parts of the CWA in the Lower Trans Pecos and far southern Permian Basin. Low clouds will keep overnight temperatures in the low 50s/upper 40s which is well above normal across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Rain and thunderstorm chances will diminish through the weekend as trough moves east and weakens.
Surface winds will veer to the east and southeast as a large north to south oriented ridge extending down the eastern seaboard moves slowly to the east increasing low level moisture. Max temps will reach the lower to mid 70s across most inland areas.
Moisture continues to deepen and expand across the area in response to southerly flow across the region that exists east of the lee-side trof. At the same time a sharp upper-level trof is crossing Texas with a 60 to 80 knot jet segment at 250 mb anticyclonically curved from western Oklahoma to southern Missouri. The best chance will be down near the Red River where somewhat stronger forcing from the trof will develop, but a few showers could form into more northern portions of the area as the right-rear quadrant of the jet max crosses these areas over the next few hours. Moisture will continue to surge north tonight, while upper level low moves across northern Mexico.
Tonight's low temperature forecast looks good, given that temperatures right now are a good 7 to almost 20 degrees warmer than this time last night, and low level waa is expected to continue overnight.
/Issued 248 PM EST Sat Mar 4 2017/ The center of high pressure looks like it is over north GA this afternoon. The high will gradually shift to the east during the short term.
307 AM EST Sun Mar 5 2017 High pressure will maintain dry weather through tonight. Approaching low pressure should result in increasing rain chances early in the work week. Dry weather with only some cirrus clouds are expected today under high pressure and warm advection. Ridging should maintain dry weather tonight.
Temperatures on Sunday will also be a few degrees cooler as well.
High pressure is currently parked southeast of the region and will continue to slide east through the day. Anticyclonic flow around the high will allow winds to remain out of the south through the afternoon. By Sunday, a strong upper level trough will begin to dig into the Pacific Northwest, while the eastern CONUS remains under broad ridging. This will set the stage for low level moisture and warmer temperatures to advect from the Gulf of Mexico into the Ohio River Valley.
The rain should mostly move northeast of the area by sunset Sunday as an upper trough moves east of the region. /issued 225 PM CST Sat Mar 4 2017/ Upper level trough to our west quickly filling but lift out ahead of the trough is resulting in scattered to numerous areas of showers, especially across the Lower Toledo Bend and Sam Rayburn County of Deep East Texas into West Central Louisiana. Introduced isolated thunderstorms in the grids across our southwest half even through we have yet to see any lightning strikes today but this will be possible as the filling trough approaches from the west tonight. Upper trough axis should be in the vicinity of East Texas by 12z Sun and nearing the Lower Miss Valley by 00z Mon.
Surface wise, a monstrous, north-south ridge axis reaches from eastern Canada southward down the spine of the Sunshine State and into the extreme northwest Caribbean sea. A massive, north-south oriented ridge will remain anchored over the entire eastern United States, most of the Gulf of Mexico and the Sunshine State over the next several days. The aforementioned anticyclone will become east-west oriented from over the Florida peninsula and the adjacent Atlantic and Gulf waters, as a trough migrates through most of the eastern United States before exiting into the western Atlantic ocean by the end of the week.
1132 PM CST Sat Mar 4 2017 As a long wave trough enters the U. The challenge for tomorrow is forecasting the dissipation of the stratus deck as the clouds will make or break the high temperature forecast. With the higher March sun angle and resulting mixing, expect the inversion to relax and give us some sunshine.
246 AM EST Sun Mar 5 2017 Arctic high pressure will provide for a frigid dawn yet also dry weather and sunshine today.
Southerly flow to the east of the trough has pulled low level moisture from the southern Plains into central and western Kansas with dewpoints currently in the mid/upper 40s around and east of Dodge City. Low stratus had developed as far west as eastern Ford Co earlier tonight but latest satellite trends show the western edge of the low cloudiness gradually receding eastward. East of the dryline, temperatures will likely top out in the low to mid 70s.
The low cloud cover will remain our our area through 9 AM, with some patchy light fog/drizzle is possible. Temperatures will be warmer today, and highs this afternoon are expected to range from the upper 60s/near 70 in our far eastern counties, to the mid 70s across the central and western Concho Valley. As the leading portion of an upper level trough advances east into the northern and central Rockies tonight, a low-level jet will develop across our area.
/ISSUED 318 PM CST Sat Mar 4 2017/ Rain continues to spread north this afternoon in advance of an upper level trough currently located just west of the Big Bend area of Texas. Through the evening hours, we expect the rain to continue to spread across much of the region, but the highest chances for rain will remain mainly along and south of Interstate 20. On Sunday morning, have the highest rain chances across our south and southeastern counties as energy associated with the upper level trough continues to depart the region.
1125 PM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 High pressure is firmly anchored over the region and will remain in control for the remainder of the weekend promoting fair/dry weather.
It will not be as cold Sunday night because of air mass modification and developing onshore flow as the ridge shifts eastward.
1020 PM MST Sat Mar 4 2017 Satellite imagery showing cold front slowly progressing southward out of Canada and into northern MT. Meanwhile moist sw flow continues from the upper level low of the pacific northwest. Freezing rain threat seems low. However, a surface cold front will push southward from Canada before stalling out along the Hi-Line.
316 AM CST Sun Mar 5 2017 Bulk moisture seen on satellite/radar mosaic over Texas and the lower Mississippi valley, will continue its northward advection Today. Showers will enter the forecast late tonight and become more prevalent with time, as a cold front takes shape and begins to approach from the west.
Deep upper low off the Pac NW coast is still digging south and east this evening. The slow eastward progression is hanging up an accompanying cold front over east-central Oregon. The front will kick eastward overnight as the low swings inland. Showers currently favoring the higher terrain tonight, but will become scattered-widespread as the cold front moves across the region.
156 AM EST Sun Mar 5 2017 High pressure will build across eastern Canada and the northeastern states tonight and Sunday.
but warmer than today with many locales closing in on 80F.
This will result in slightly cooler temperatures tomorrow and much higher RH values.
Made some cooler adjustments to tonight's min temps based on current trends.
The warmest readings will be immediately behind the dryline at Dodge City, Ashland and Cimarron where the downslope flow has progressed from the higher elevations of the Rockies to the lower elevations around 2500 ft. Slight cooler air is expected east of the dryline where dewpoints will be higher and mixing heights lower. Lows will only be in the lower 50s in south central Kansas with the low level moisture, with readings near 40 along the Colorado state line.
A warm front extended from the low arcing southeastward into north central North Dakota near Minot to Aberdeen in SD. Another secondary low pressure center was over southeastern Montana, with a warm front extending southeastward across central SD and into eastern Nebraska. This secondary warm front is progged to lift northward across the Dakotas on Sunday.
Temperatures tonight will stay above freezing for the entire CWA.
1237 AM EST Sun Mar 5 2017 Dry conditions and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are expected into tonight and Sunday as an upper level ridge builds in.
1014 PM MST Sat Mar 4 2017 Upper ridge has pushed east of region creating warm and dry southwesterly flow aloft over the northern plains. Mid and upper warm air advection supports peak thermal ridge for Sunday. High temperatures on Sunday are expected to range from 20-30F warmer than average. On Sunday night, a fast moving upper trough will approach as an open wave, developing into a closed-off 500mb low as it moves off to the northeast of the forecast area.
353 AM CST Sun Mar 5 2017 Areas of mainly rain and/or showers will continue to be possible across Southeast Texas today as the mid/upper level trough moves east and northeast across the area. Anticipate decreasing rain coverage for much of the area this afternoon as the main trough axis edges off to our east.
A warm and windy day is likely for Sunday w/the CWA remaining on the fringe of upper-level ridging. Models tend to do poorly with dew points in this scenario, so we will see some very low RH values along with gusty winds due to mixing across the high plains.
117 AM CST Sun Mar 5 2017 Bulk moisture seen on satellite/radar mosaic over Texas and the lower Mississippi valley, will continue its northward advection Today. Showers will enter the forecast late tonight and become more prevalant with time, as a cold front takes shape and begins to approach from the west.
412 AM EST Sun Mar 5 2017 High pressure will be situated east of the region today allowing for southerly flow and warmer temperatures.
1157 PM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 Lingering influence of high pressure centered to the northeast will maintain a dry and stable low level environment tonight. There may be some increase in mid cloud Sunday morning as warmer mid level air arrives, but model guidance continues to indicate cigs will hold above 5k ft given the existing dry/light southeast flow. Large high pressure (1042-1044 MB) along the southern Ontario/Quebec border.
High pressure is spilling east through the Ohio River Valley, reinforcing the high which has dominated the pressure gradient the last several days. Therefore, the upper level low to our west (see water vapor imagery) is now cutoff from the mid-latitude westerlies.
The upper ridge in place over the central United States flattens somewhat today and tonight as a short wave trough moves through the Intermountain West. This short wave trough emerges east of the Rockies and moves across the northern and central high plains regions on Saturday.
333 AM CDT FRI OCT 28 2016 High pressure will continue to move to the east today while a low pressure area moves across the northern US into the Great Lakes region by tonight. The gradient between this high pressure and low pressure, and associated cold front, will cause surface winds to increase today with gusts increasing to over 20mph by this afternoon.
For tonight moisture will increase in the nrn mtns north of I-70 as a wk upper level trough clips nrn CO mainly after midnight. Models have the upper ridge flattened down somewhat with a weak upper trough to move across the CWA on Saturday. There is more upper ridging Saturday night.
WV imagery indicates a broad upper level ridge of high pressure moving eastward across the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is anchored across eastern Colorado. We also bumped up the highs about 2-3 degrees over SuperBlend, which would give widespread highs in the upper 80s. The trough axis will remain just north of the southwest KS region through Saturday midday before a cold front finally pushes down into western Kansas.
Breezy south to southwest winds develop across the region today in response to a tightening pressure gradient ahead of an approaching cold front. Further to the northeast across central into northern Wisconsin, thicker cloud cover should limit mixing and keep high temperatures in the lower 60s, still very pleasant for this time of year.
An upper low in the central Gulf of Mexico continues to produce abundant moisture over the Florida peninsula which in turn is producing a broken to overcast cloud deck. This trough moves slowly westward, but will continue to produce a southwest upper level flow which will keep an upper cloud deck through the period. On the surface, high pressure near Bermuda ridges west over the southeast U. The gradient between this trough and high pressure to the north will keep gusty east northeast winds across the region. Temperatures will remain around average for this time of year with highs in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.
Warm advection will be fairly strong through the morning until the thermal ridge reaches Iowa by early afternoon, but this lift will be moisture starved with only mid and high level cloudiness. The 07z analysis also shows a warm front NNW-SSE across Iowa, roughly from Spencer through Des Moines to Keokuk.
256 AM MDT Fri Oct 28 2016 Current IR satellite loop shows cloudy skies over most of the forecast area as high cirrus moves eastward into the High Plains. these winds will begin to impact the high valleys and high plains of southeast Wyoming by late this morning where gusts up to 40 to 45 MPH are possible. There is a potent upper level trough off the California coastline which will move eastward into the Great Basin and eventually Wyoming/Montana late tonight. High temperatures will be a few degrees cooler compared to yesterday mainly due to the persistent cloud cover. The other forecast concern will be winds across the wind prone areas of southeast Wyoming Friday night as a weak cold front moves towards the area. gusts between 50 to 55 mph are still possible along the higher elevations of I-80.
448 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016 Dry weather can be expected today and Saturday as high pressure builds across the area.
247 AM PDT Fri Oct 28 2016 A Pacific low pressure system will bring showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms today.
238 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016 Low pressure will slowly move east through southern New England today, bringing heavy rain for most of the region with snow at the highest elevations. A ridge of high pressure will build in from the west tonight.
406 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016 (Today and Tonight) Upper level ridge of high pressure to remain in control across the Southern Plains, with quiet weather across West Central Texas.
The 00Z ensemble and deterministic models are projecting progressive flow aloft through the period, as a series of mid/upper level troughs propagate across North Dakota. On Saturday high pressure moves in at the surface; though aloft a sagging low pressure system over the eastern Northwest Territories will bring cooler Canadian air into the state.
High pressure will build over the area through Friday night.
238 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016 A few record or near record high temperatures are expected today and Saturday with breezy southwest winds within the low/mid level thermal ridge where highs will climb into the mid and upper 80s.
Tight 6+ mb gradient continues over the area between Western Atlantic into the Deep South high pressure axis and tropical wave in the NW Caribbean Sea. Pleasant dry weather will continue across the forecast area tonight and Friday as high pressure remains in control. Temperatures tonight and Friday will run some 5 degrees above normal for this time of the year with lows tonight falling into the lower 60s across the Nature Coast, and mid to upper 60s central and south, with highs on Friday climbing into the lower to mid 80s.
Surface cold front never really makes it too far into the far north before washing out overnight. Pattern at the start of the period will feature a ridge building east towards the local area from TX/Mexico in the mid/upper levels while the sfc features high pressure centered VA/NC.
344 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016 High pressure will advance off to the east today allowing warmer southerly flow to overspread the area.
A mean layer (1000-500 MB) ridge begins to build into the southeast U. High clouds will continue to stream in from the Gulf of Mexico between a large sub-tropical high to the southeast and a trough to the northwest of the area. Temps to continue above normal with highs in the lower/mid 80s inland to near 80 coast and lows from the upper 50s well inland to the upper 60s river/coast.
Moisture advection will continue through Saturday as a mid/upper low approaches from the east on Saturday.
Warming ahead of the incoming cold front should warm temperatures into at least the lower 70s to the southwest. but we expect the lower clouds to gradually break up over the far eastern areas into Friday morning. They may return in the afternoon with the approach of the cold front and lower level begin to saturate again.
A weak cold front also remains draped to our north but will stall before making it into the CWA. Ridging building in behind the wave has allowed for upper/mid-level drying which was noted on the 00z JAN sounding, while the boundary layer still remains moist. Otherwise, the only other update was to lower overnight min temps a few degrees area wide in line with the low end of guidance. /issued 625 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016/ Tonight through Friday, WV imagery this afternoon continues to show mid level wave moving out of the forecast area and being replaced by ridging aloft. This ridging will provide warming/drying in the column with the only appreciable moisture left in the boundary layer and best over southern portions.
This is occurring on the lower PoP NAM compared to the GFS.
This along with the ridging aloft and sunshine will lead to a nice warm up from yesterday's highs.
Saturday still looks to be the warmest day with the upper level high overhead, southwest flow in the low levels, and continued dry conditions.
and Saturday Southerly winds will increase precipitously across the region today with return flow on the backside of a departing high and ahead of a low pressure system approaching from the west. The attendant cold front from this system will also track through, however there isn't much cold air associated with this front as overnight lows stay in the upper 40s across the north, with low to mid 50s expected across the south. A mid level trough will track through the western Great Lakes on Saturday, bringing the chance for showers to the area Saturday afternoon as the cold front passing through tonight stalls across the southern Great Lakes. Highs Saturday will still be above normal as temperatures range from the lower to middle 50s across the north, with highs around 60 further south.
340 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016 Not much change expected over the next several days, as an upper ridge remains over the central CONUS, with high pressure dominating the weather pattern across the region. Another very warm day is on tap today, with highs this afternoon expected to be in the 80s for most of the area, with upper 70s over higher terrain, as well as a couple readings in the lower 90s possible through the Rio Grande Valley.
255 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016 A weak cold front will move through Eastern North Carolina today.
1241 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016 The weather remains pretty quiet with an unseasonally warm airmass in place across the Central Plains under the influence of an upper ridge of high pressure. At the surface, a high pressure ridge will exit east of the Missouri River tonight while a low pressure trough deepens along the high plains. Very warm temperatures in the low/mid 80s are forecast for our western zones which are a solid 20 to 25 degrees above normal highs which are around 60 degrees this time of year.
Active weather will remain confined to the gulf waters associated with a broad westward tracking trof/low. Inland area will remain within fair weather pattern and strong subsidence as south conus ridge expands eastward into the lower Mississippi valley.
Fairly vigorous upper level low remains just off the West Coast early this morning with healthy band of showers pushing across central California per west coast radars and satellite.
Fringe of the rain shield appears to set-up somewhere near the Billings area through the night so not completely sold on some of the higher rainfall totals that have been advertised by ECMWF. Colder air makes it's way into the Beartooths a little earlier on Friday night which will increase totals to 6 to 10 inches along the highest peaks. Anticipating highs to only reach the low 50s on Saturday.
125 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016 High pressure builds Friday into Saturday.
636 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016 Dry weather can be expected today and Saturday as high pressure builds across the area.
559 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016 High pressure east of the Ozarks will continue its eastward progression through tonight as a flat upper ridge moves over the center of the country. Developing low pressure over eastern Colorado will begin to shift east as well with a tightening surface gradient allowing for breezy conditions today. Breezy winds will continue into this weekend as a dry cold front approaches the region.
High pressure will strengthen over the area, resulting in dry conditions into the weekend.
The abnormally warm and dry weather pattern that we've experienced for much of October will continue today as a broad upper ridge centered over the Central U.
410 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016 Building high pressure will slowly decrease cloud cover and keep the area cool and dry today. Warmer temperatures on Saturday. High pressure and warm advection will decrease cloud cover today, allowing temperatures to warm just a bit, but still remain below seasonal averages. Upper level flow will become zonal on Saturday, but we will still see an influx of warmer air, as the lower and mid-level flow turns to the southwest.
/ISSUED 724 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016/ Once again looking like another quiet night with weak high pressure over SE Texas allowing for winds to decouple tonight with clear skies. Aloft, an upper level ridge should edge over much of Texas for the weekend keeping rain chances out of the forecast.
645 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016 A cold front pushes offshore this morning.
Even with the high cloud cover today, temps are expected to be quite warm again, with record highs being forecast at Colo Spgs and Pueblo. Highs are expected to be in the 80s acrs the southeast plains and in the upper 60s to mid 70s in the high valleys.
An anomalously strong upper ridge axis will extend north from the Southern High Plains into the Central and Northern High Plains. Although Sky cover will be scattered to at times broken in cirrus clouds, highs in the lower 80s, with mid 80s forecast from the southeast panhandle into southwest Nebraska. This will drawn a cold front southward into northwest Nebraska toward daybreak. As the surface cold front associated with this upper trough tracks over the region, a cooler airmass will begin to filter into the area. The entire forecast area will also experience much cooler overnight temperatures on Saturday night.
A cold front moved through Northeast Montana early this morning. It will breezy and cooler behind the surface front today.
645 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016 High pressure will advance off to the east today allowing warmer southerly flow to overspread the area.
319 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016 Very mild and warm today with southerly winds and ridging aloft. While there is quite a bit of cirrus, it will probably be thin enough to allow plenty of sunshine, along with slightly warmer 850 mb temps than yesterday. Highs today should easily reach the lower 80s, with near record warmth expected.