Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This afternoon-tonight: Showers/storms should continue to overspread our CWA as negatively titled trough progresses eastward, with main severe threat tending to be tied to MCS (hugging instability axis/theta-E gradient). Unidirectional flow and LLJ behind departing upper trough should support windy conditions, with clearing/mixing heights determining how high winds actually get.
805 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019 Breaks in the cloud cover could enhance a weak cold front that will continue to track southeast through the area this afternoon and into this evening.
336 PM MDT Mon Sep 2 2019 Strong upper level ridge will remain parked over the Central and Southern Rockies through Tuesday. With the high reaching 99F, the all time record high for September was reached for the second day in a row. A short wave trough will track across the Northern Plains tonight. A cold front associated with this system will pass south through Colorado early Tuesday morning bringing relief from the late summer heat. Highs Tuesday will be about 15F cooler than today with highs in the 80s over northeast Colorado. With the ridge still in place, very warm air aloft will cap convection across the lower elevations.
It is actually warmer across southeast Wyoming compared to our western Nebraska sites, mainly due to the thick stratus and fog early this morning across most of western Nebraska and far east central Wyoming. Expect a few record high temperatures to be reached, but overall it should be a few degrees cooler compared to yesterday. A surface cold front is forecast to move southward across the region late tonight and into Tuesday. Winds will shift into the north and northeast with temperatures around 10 to 15 degrees cooler compared to today.
then a gradual influx of drier cooler air. Otherwise, muggy until the cold front arrives. Some isolated pops with the pre-frontal trough and the cold front late tonight into Tuesday morning.
325 PM MDT Mon Sep 2 2019 With an upper level ridge of high pressure over the region, very warm afternoon temperatures are expected across the region over the next few days.
The local area remains in between an upper ridge over the western US and a building ridge over the Atlantic. Lows will be mild, in the lower to mid 70s.
825 PM MDT Mon Sep 2 2019 Quiet evening across Northeast Montana as a High pressure system is taking control of the weather. Main weather story this evening has been the strong northwest wind behind the cold front which affected the region this morning. Northwest winds finally kicked in this afternoon as weaker September sun gradually moxed things from west to east while a cold front moved through.
844 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019 High pressure north of the area will weaken as Hurricane Dorian moves slowly northward along the eastern coast of Florida.
An expanding upper high over the area will keep the area predominately rain-free through Tuesday.
/GG/ Through Tuesday: A strong subtropical ridge will maintain large scale subsidence and a dry mid level airmass over the ArkLaMiss region as we go through early this week. The forecast will start off tomorrow night with Hurricane Dorian moving north just off the Florida coast as ridging remains centered across the Southern Plains and Atlantic with a well defined northern stream trough propagating through the Great Lakes region.
No major changes for us as high pressure continues. /Tonight through Tuesday Night/ Upper-level ridge to prevail across the ArkLaTex through the short term period ending Monday night.
724 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019 High pressure north of the area will weaken as Hurricane Dorian moves slowly northward along the eastern coast of Florida.
541 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019 High pressure north of the area will weaken as Hurricane Dorian moves slowly northward along the eastern coast of Florida.
545 PM MDT Mon Sep 2 2019 Aviation Section Updated With an upper level ridge of high pressure over the region, very warm afternoon temperatures are expected across the region over the next few days.
Central Alabama remains in a weakness between the Bermuda ridge in the Atlantic and a ridge centered over the Intermountain West.
The primary weather feature of note in the short term is a cold front that will move through the region late Tuesday night. Otherwise, we could see a repeat of the low clouds and fog late tonight that we saw early this morning.
615 PM CDT Mon Sep 2 2019 A really nice Labor Day set up for the region with partly cloudy skies and highs in the lower to mid 80s. Dewpoints did climb up into the 70s causing it to be a little humid out there with heat indices reaching into the lower 90s. High temperatures will reach into the lower 90s with heat indices pushing 100F over the KC Metro area tomorrow afternoon. It will feel much warmer than it has lately, so caution needs to be taken for any outdoor activities. This heat will be short-lived, as a cold front moves into the region from the north Tuesday evening.
In fact the low level jet on the latest run of the RAP model feeding the storm complex is around 35 knot, but by midnight that increases to 50 knots.
616 PM CDT Mon Sep 2 2019 Upper level high pressure continuing across the Central Rockies and adjacent high plains with dry sinking air over airports. This is due to the expansion of the ridge eastward, centering over much of our region the rest of the week.
then gradual influx of drier cooler air. Otherwise, muggy until the cold front arrives. Some isolated pops with the pre-frontal trough and the cold front late tonight into Tuesday morning.
There has been some additional showers and thunderstorms starting to move into our northwestern counties, and some more activity along the main upper trough moving through Saskatchewan. Think that the severe threat from this activity is limited, but have some POPs continuing through tonight and into tomorrow as the main upper system and cold front move through. This afternoon-tonight: Showers/storms should continue to overspread our CWA as negatively titled trough progresses eastward, with main severe threat tending to be tied to MCS (hugging instability axis/theta-E gradient). Unidirectional flow and LLJ behind departing upper trough should support windy conditions, with clearing/mixing heights determining how high winds actually get.
543 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019 Breaks in the cloud cover could enhance a weak cold front that will continue to track southeast through the area this afternoon and into this evening.
703 PM CDT Mon Sep 2 2019 It's been a cloudy Labor Day across most of the region with temperatures struggling to reach the lower 80s early this afternoon. A strong upper-wave, currently over western North Dakota will continue to slide east-southeast into Minnesota tonight, dragging a strong cold front across our region by daybreak. The cold front moves over the region early Tuesday morning, exiting over northwest Iowa by mid-morning. Decent cold air advection and rapid pressure rises behind the frontal boundary will bring windy and cooler conditions. Highs will generally range from the lower 70s to lower 80s.
436 PM MDT Mon Sep 2 2019 The H5 ridge continues to dominate the local landscape, with subsident heating bringing near record temperatures.
/DL/ Prior discussion below: Through Tuesday: A strong subtropical ridge will maintain large scale subsidence and a dry mid level airmass over the ArkLaMiss region as we go through early this week. The forecast will start off tomorrow night with Hurricane Dorian moving north just off the Florida coast as ridging remains centered across the Southern Plains and Atlantic with a well defined northern stream trough propagating through the Great Lakes region.
822 PM MDT Mon Sep 2 2019 Upper trough swinging through northeast Montana has sent a cold front through southern Montana and northern Wyoming. An upper level disturbance and trough will move southeast out of Canada across northeast Montana into north Dakota this evening. This system will sweep a weak cold front moves across the forecast area late this afternoon and into the evening hours. At this time, we are not expecting any thunderstorm activity with the front as most of the energy associated with the trough will be north of our forecast area. Tuesday will see ridging building back over the forecast. Mostly sunny skies will continue but temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler in the lower to middle 80s.
636 PM CDT Mon Sep 2 2019 High pressure will continue to dominate across the terminals through the forecast period.
402 PM CDT Mon Sep 2 2019 The local area is actually getting beneficial subisidence flow from both Hurricane Dorian off the Florida coast and a broad area of low pressure over the west- central Gulf of Mexico.
/issued 350 PM CDT Mon Sep 2 2019/ A building upper level ridge will block the forecast area from any tropical troubles. Meanwhile, this ridge will bring hot and dry conditions for a majority of the week. Rua An inverted trough is bringing some moisture increase into lower Acadiana with a few showers trying to develop in that area.
Some thunderstorms have been moving through central ND along the cold front, and this should move eastward overnight. This afternoon-tonight: Showers/storms should continue to overspread our CWA as negatively titled trough progresses eastward, with main severe threat tending to be tied to MCS (hugging instability axis/theta-E gradient). Unidirectional flow and LLJ behind departing upper trough should support windy conditions, with clearing/mixing heights determining how high winds actually get.
1144 PM CDT Mon Sep 2 2019 A really nice Labor Day set up for the region with partly cloudy skies and highs in the lower to mid 80s. Dewpoints did climb up into the 70s causing it to be a little humid out there with heat indices reaching into the lower 90s. High temperatures will reach into the lower 90s with heat indices pushing 100F over the KC Metro area tomorrow afternoon. It will feel much warmer than it has lately, so caution needs to be taken for any outdoor activities. This heat will be short-lived, as a cold front moves into the region from the north Tuesday evening.
High pressure aloft centered near the Four Corners region will drift slowly east through the balance of the week. High pressure remains centered just northeast of the Four Corners this evening. Moisture rounding rotating around the high center has made it into Utah, with PWATs 0. With the gradual moistening of the lower levels, measurable rain has been reported and wind gusts have not been significantly strong. With the high pressure center remaining nearly in place, moisture will continue to overspread the area through midweek.
At the surface, a low-pressure system has developed over the northern Mississippi Valley with an attendant cold front extending from roughly Minneapolis to North Platte to Denver. With warm 850-hPa temps (22-24 C) and a plume of 70 + dewpoints expected to pool ahead of the cold front, today will be as warm but slightly more humid than yesterday.
Main focus is on the ongoing thunderstorm clusters and possible redevelopment this afternoon with a cold front. A cold front will drop through the area today which may spark more storms for this afternoon and into the early evening. Heat indices will be in the low to mid 90s south of Highway 20. The cold front will sweep through the remainder of the area by mid-evening and leave dry conditions with decreasing humidity levels the remainder of the night.
Fog should dissipate just after sunrise, and upper level high should move closer to the region today.
225 AM MDT Tue Sep 3 2019 Water vapor shows upper trof crossing ND with upper ridge amplifying across the Intermountain West. At the surface, trof is moving across the eastern Dakotas with drier w/nw flow spreading into our zones.
followed the lower probabilities as the clouds move inland but convection may not follow.
Lows tonight will be in the lower and middle 70s, except for some upper 60s across the southwest zones. /Issued 227 PM CDT Mon Sep 2 2019/ /Tuesday through the Weekend/ A mid/upper ridge centered over the Rockies will expand east and southeast across the Southern Plains over the next few days and remain dominant across North and Central Texas through the end of the week.
Tonight, a cold front will move into southern IL and southwest IN after midnight.
By tonight, surface ridging will approach the state with winds subsiding by late evening.
This will allow temps to fall into the low and mid 40s tonight.
222 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2019 High pressure north of the area will weaken as Hurricane Dorian moves slowly northward along the eastern coast of Florida.
250 AM CDT Tue Sep 3 2019 Above normal temperatures and dry weather is expected for much of the week as a sprawling upper level high pressure system dominates the weather pattern of west Texas and southeast New Mexico.
Tonight through Tuesday, a broad upper level ridge extended from the Four Corners Region east across the southern Plains. An upper level trough over west-central Canada will dig east-south east across the northern Plains Tonight and then into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes States on Tuesday. The stronger ascent ahead of the upper trough will be located well northeast of the CWA and with the upper ridge extending east across KS, the environment will be unfavorable for deep moist convection to develop ahead of the front. The front will pass through the CWA dry but will switch winds to the northeast and bring in a slightly cooler and drier airmass. Highs on Tuesday ahead of the front will reach the lower 90s, the front may pass southeast of north central KS by peak heating, thus highs may only reach the upper 80s.
914 PM MDT Mon Sep 2 2019 The H5 ridge continues to dominate the local landscape, with subsident heating bringing near record temperatures.
244 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2019 High pressure overnight and Tuesday.
High pressure will continue to dominate across the terminals through the forecast period.
831 PM PDT Mon Sep 2 2019 A slow moving upper level low will drift across far western Washington and into southwest BC on Tuesday. The low will then weaken and move more quickly to the east. Through midweek, some high pressure aloft will begin to ridge into the area. Temps ranged generally in the 70s today with a few low 80s in the warmer spots. The low will help to spark a few showers on Tuesday but primarily in the mountains and closer to the coast. A stray rumble of thunder could not be ruled out over the mountains, especially in the North Cascades as there will be some instability present and the low will track close by. In the wake of the departing low, some ridging will build back in aloft and provide mostly quiet weather into midweek.
325 AM CDT Tue Sep 3 2019 Upper high pressure will dominate most of the forecast period heading into the weekend.
250 AM CDT Tue Sep 3 2019 A progressive upper trof will continue to move east-southeast across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes today. The associated surface cold front still looks to reach roughly along the I-70 corridor in central Kansas by mid/late afternoon.
A convectively reinforced cold front looks likely to drop through the area late today into tonight, producing some thunderstorms, a few of which could be strong to severe, mainly during the evening hours.
302 AM CDT Tue Sep 3 2019 The warm advection trend will continue today ahead of a cold front, which will make its way through the local area this evening. The cold front will enter northern Missouri by the early to mid- afternoon, gradually progressing through central Missouri after sunset. Potential storms will taper off through the late evening and a cooler and drier air mass will fill in behind the frontal boundary as a broad region of high pressure over the Northern Plains slides south.
Went a few degrees cooler than model blend for the James valley where this type of setup usually leads to cooler than expected temperatures.
The pesky upper-level ridge will stubbornly remain over the region through midweek. At the surface a cold front will just barely move into the southern Plains before stalling out just north of the I-40 corridor.
Additional scattered storms are developing on the low- level moisture transport axis early this morning. Even into the daylight hours a few showers/storms will be possible until the cold front clears the area to the southeast. Otherwise, high pressure will build in for tonight with much cooler lows in the 40s to low 50s.
402 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2019 Weak high pressure extending across the area early this morning will quickly move off to the east.
This trough will push a front down the front range and provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms along the divide this afternoon and evening. Mid to high level clouds continue to stream in from the southwest so expect that high temperatures will be a few degrees cooler today. The focus for development will mainly be across the higher elevations of western Colorado and the Uintas.
1026 PM MDT Mon Sep 2 2019 Forecast is on track with near recording-breaking temperatures across the area this afternoon with a few showers and thunderstorms expected over the higher terrain across the south.
Meanwhile, a high pressure dome was centered over the four-corners region with attendant ridge extending to the northern Great Basin. At the surface, elongated low pressure extended across the Northern/Central Plains.
The low level jet is forecast to increase signifcantlyover the next few hours. The Most Unstable Cape is still forecast to reach near 3000 j/kg over WI ahead of this convection as the low level jet increases.
240 AM CDT Tue Sep 3 2019 Latest water vapor imagery shows a building ridge over the Rockies, a weak trough digging into the northern Plains and Hurricane Dorian spinning just to the north of the Bahamas. The TN Valley remains on the eastern edge of the ridge, with high pressure at the surface. The ridge will continue to build eastward through the day, with subsidence over the area keeping dry conditions in place. The pattern will generally remain unchanged through the first part of the short term period, as the ridge remains anchored over the Plains and into the TN Valley.
217 AM MDT Tue Sep 3 2019 High pressure moves through NE Montana today which will bring clear skies to the area. Temperatures will be somewhat cooler than yesterday for highs with the coolest temperatures in the northeast. Meanwhile, an upper ridge builds into Montana from the west today.
A ridge of high pressure will provide these conditions.
1126 PM CDT Mon Sep 2 2019 An upper ridge of high pressure is currently located over the Rocky Mountain region. The eastern edge of the ridge is located over the area. Temperatures are currently in the lower to middle 80s and will top out in the middle 80s to near 90 for highs today. Temperatures will warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s on Tuesday with heat index values in the middle 90s to near 100 degrees.
324 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2019 Updated at 224 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2019 High pressure reaching from New England to Texas will provide us with a mostly sunny, warm day once patchy morning fog burns off. about five degrees warmer than normal.
355 AM CDT Tue Sep 3 2019 At 08Z, a mid-level ridge remained in place over the Four Corners region while a mid-level trough was moving eastward along the US and Canadian border west of Lake Superior. The cold front in Nebraska will advance southward into and through the forecast area today. Compressional warming ahead of the front along with southwest winds advecting in some warmer conditions from under the mid-level ridge to our west will combine to make for a hot and humid day, especially over central and east-central Kansas. High temperatures will only warm into the low 80s with dewpoints dropping into the upper 50s in many locations.
344 AM CDT Tue Sep 3 2019 A dry cold front will cross the local area today ushering in a cooler airmass and breezy northerly winds. Generally quiet weather is expected across the local area for the first couple of days of the extended periods as High pressure aloft builds across the plains.
A mid-level high continues to sit over southwestern Colorado, while a 500 mb trough moves across the Northern Plains towards the Great Lakes Region Tuesday night.
Fog should dissipate just after sunrise, and upper level high should move closer to the region today. Temps look to be a bit warmer than yesterday, and it will be warm on Wednesday as well before the cold front moves through.
Went a few degrees cooler than model blend for the James valley where this type of setup usually leads to cooler than expected temperatures. For Wednesday return flow initiates along with a bit warmer temperatures.
A quiet and cooler day is expected today. Tonight will be quite cool as we remain under the influence of high pressure and winds diminish.
Cold front being advertised the past couple days on surface analysis located from Rapid City to Douglas. Temperatures 5 to 10 degrees cooler behind the front over northern Wyoming and dewpoints in the 50s. So cooler and more moist air starting to filter into the area. Ridge to our south over the four corners area continues to weaken some and shift eastward.
and Wednesday Scattered showers and thunderstorms will end this morning as a warm front moves north. The big question is whether any additional thunderstorms can form along the cold front that will move across the region this afternoon. Cyclonic upper flow and low level cold advection will make for cooler conditions tonight.
A progressive upper trof will continue to move east-southeast across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes today. The associated surface cold front still looks to reach roughly along the I-70 corridor in central Kansas by mid/late afternoon. Modestly cooler air is expected in the wake of the front for Wednesday with better drying/lower dew points felt across central Kansas.
Latest water vapor imagery shows a building ridge over the Rockies, a weak trough digging into the northern Plains and Hurricane Dorian spinning just to the north of the Bahamas. The TN Valley remains on the eastern edge of the ridge, with high pressure at the surface. The ridge will continue to build eastward through the day, with subsidence over the area keeping dry conditions in place. The pattern will generally remain unchanged through the first part of the short term period, as the ridge remains anchored over the Plains and into the TN Valley.
405 AM CDT Tue Sep 3 2019 A quiet and cooler day is expected today. Tonight will be quite cool as we remain under the influence of high pressure and winds diminish.
An upper-level ridge of high pressure will continue to extend eastward to Alabama from an upper high pressure area centered over southern Colorado through Tuesday night.
At the surface, a low-pressure system has developed over the northern Mississippi Valley with an attendant cold front extending from roughly Minneapolis to North Platte to Denver. With warm 850-hPa temps (22-24 C) and a plume of 70 + dewpoints expected to pool ahead of the cold front, today will be as warm but slightly more humid than yesterday. Due to these limiting factors, confidence is high that the cold front will trudge through the Ozarks late tonight dry. Weather conditions will remain dry but notably cooler, Wednesday, for most as the cold front continues pushing toward the Missouri/Arkansas state line.
1046 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2019 Weak high pressure extending across the area early this morning will quickly move off to the east. A cold front will move through the region late tonight into Wednesday morning. High pressure will then build in for the remainder of the week. Convection that develops ahead of a cold front will spread southeast into the forecast area during the mid to late evening. Cooling will lag the front a bit with areas along and south/east of I-71 still rising into the lower to mid 80s.
/issued 250 AM CDT Tue Sep 3 2019/ Above normal temperatures and dry weather is expected for much of the week as a sprawling upper level high pressure system dominates the weather pattern of west Texas and southeast New Mexico.
High pressure ridging will build again across the forecast area today and Wednesday.