Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
trough over the next 24 to 48 hours. In the low levels, a deepening lee trough over the High Plains will promote gusty south winds by afternoon with highs generally around 70. The Kansas impulse will shift to our southeast tonight with considerable mid-level ridging forecast Friday over the Great Plains, downstream from the amplifying western U. trough. This upper-air pattern configuration will maintain a lee trough over the High Plains with gusty south winds again expected, especially over the northwestern portion of our area. Temperatures should be similar to that on Thursday; around 70 or the lower 70s.
With a weak pressure gradient in place, the low level winds are draining nicely. Models have an upper ridge move into Colorado today and tonight. will go with "Chance"s over the high country.
347 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016 Broad region of convection ahead of an approaching upper trough has begun to slowly move into central tx. Gradually tapering pops from the west durg the day Friday and upper ridge allowing for partly sunny skies and fairly seasonal temps thru wknd.
A downstream ridge dominated the Great Basin northeast across the central Rockies. The 00Z short range model guidance progs the upper ridge to slowly translate east toward the Great Plains through Friday as the closed low and associated trough dig south along the Pacific coast. Warmer temperatures and modest lapse rates over the higher terrain of southeast Wyoming will result in widely scattered shower/thunderstorm development this afternoon over the higher terrain. spreading east onto the high plains mid to late afternoon. High temperatures this afternoon will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer compared to yesterday.
The cold front has been moving steadily eastward overnight, and has just begun to trek across western Montana early this morning.
This low cloud cover will likely keep much of the area fog free as North/Northwest Winds of 5-10 MPH gradually diminish this evening. However, where the lows clouds are scattered/broken over northeast AL, anticipating the possibility of patchy fog developing and have added that into the forecast for that area. 77 For 06Z TAFs: MVFR cigs currently prevail across much of N AL, but satellite imagery is showing this low deck of clouds gradually eroding. Thus, have included a scattering to VFR conditions around 19/11z at KMSL where the low cloud deck should erode the quickest.
Unsettled weather will continue as a front stalls over the area today, then lifts north as a warm front late Friday.
Upper level trough will shift eastward today into the Central and Southern Plains. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will decrease from west to east late this afternoon and evening as trough axis shift east. Upper ridge will begin to build into South Texas on Friday.
The low pressure system over Arizona will move slowly northeast and out of the area tonight. Otherwise, dry conditions elsewhere as a ridge of high pressure aloft builds over the region today and Friday.
641 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 High pressure will keep dry weather across the region today.
257 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 An upper trough of low pressure will move across the region today and Tonight, producing showers and scattered thunderstorms.
348 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 High pressure will keep dry weather across the region today.
621 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 A weak upper level low will cross the area today and tonight.
A much cooler and showery weather pattern is in store for the next several days as an upper low drops down over the region. The upper low is currently centered over Washington and is forecast to shift southward to today and tonight and become centered over Southwest Oregon and Northern California. Scattered to numerous showers will accompany this low pressure system, initially across areas from the Cascades westward in Oregon today, then spreading across the area by this evening and tonight. Light snow accumulations are possible over the higher passes this evening through Friday.
241 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will extend into the Ohio Valley through Thursday night, providing dry conditions.
411 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016 Today will start sunny, and it will be rather nice throughout the day into the evening hours, but a trough starting to eject from the Desert Southwest will spread a bit of moisture north today into tonight kicking up the cloud cover across the region as well as bringing us the remote possibility of rain late tonight. Models runs have been trending the track of the ejecting Desert Southwest trough further south over the past several runs, taking the focus for rain late tonight and shifting it south.
The base of the upper trough is near the New Mexico bootheel early this morning. The low-level winds will gradually come around to the south and we expect the overcast to thin out through the day, with even some partial clearing in the afternoon or early evening. A deep upper level trough digging into the west coast on Friday will start to draw copious amounts of Gulf of Mexico moisture into the region. However, short wave ridging overhead will likely suppress any convection that attempts to develop.
549 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016 12Z TAF CYCLE An upper trough will move across the Panhandles today bringing an end to any lingering showers. Subsidence will prevail behind the departing upper trough with IFR to MVFR ceilings becoming VFR by 18Z to 20Z today at all three TAF sites. /Issued 421 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016/ An upper level trough is pushing through the area today and bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms today. Mid level height rises Friday bring quieter weather as ridging sets in briefly as an upper level low dives south over the western conus. This low will lift a bit and slide east through the weekend.
Weak high pressure will remain near the Keys and South Florida through Friday night with moderately unstable model soundings.
5-1K J/kg over the Black Hills and southeasterly upslope surface winds advecting higher dewpoints, leading to thunderstorm development over the higher terrain. Again the Black Hills will be uncapped, so thunderstorms will develop over the higher elevation, but CIN and low shear on the plains will inhibit progression of storms. Thermal ridge remains over the high plains, and temperatures will continue to warm today and Friday.
324 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016 A stalled front remains located along the Gulf Coast this morning while high pressure covers the Upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Drier air has filtered into much of the Mid-South overnight with thanks to the high pressure nudging into the area. The boundary will then begin lifting northward as a warm front. However, with the expected ongoing convection Friday Morning, would think the atmosphere should be pretty worked over for any severe storm to generate ahead of the trailing cold front.
A more significant cool down is forecast late in the week and through the weekend as an upper level trough approaches from the northwest.
210 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016 224 PM CDT No real concerns expected this forecast period, as high pressure will dominate the region. Did lower min temps slightly in a few spots tonight, but with most places falling to the lower 40s. Although locations near the lake will be cooler, weak gradient and weak flow could allow for these areas to reach around 60 before cooler air off the lake pushes inland by midday.
707 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017 The Ozarks Region was within the inflection of a departing trough and an approaching ridge to the west.
624 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017 Ridging aloft over the Rockies can be seen quite well upstream on WV imagery with northwest flow over the Southern Plains. CIGs may lower to IFR during the morning hours, with the higher probability being at KACT.
Mainly dry weather is expected Thursday under building high pressure before precipitation chances return with approaching low pressure. Some lake enhancement is also expected, with scattered snow showers but no significant accumulation outside of the higher terrain. In the higher terrain of PA/WV/MD, another 1-3 inches of snow are possible as upslope adds to the lake enhancement off of Lake Erie, so the winter weather advisory continues. Ridging with continued cooler than normal conditions look to continue through Thursday and into Thursday night.
A long duration freeze is expected across portions of Alabama and Georgia tonight with up to 8 hours below freezing possible.
659 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017 Early afternoon visible satellite imagery together with RAP13 surface analysis showed high pressure and clear skies across most of Minnesota and Wisconsin. Despite the light winds, temperatures warmed above freezing at most locations along and north of I-94, with cooler temperatures near I-90 where there was more snow cover. Over the next 24 hours the ridge of high pressure will shift eastward and warm air advection will move from the Dakotas into western MN and lead to isentropic ascent, mid level clouds, and some light precipitation on Thursday.
602 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017 Quiet weather expected overnight, as a ridge of high pressure drifts eastward across the state. However, as the ridge axis shifts east, some mid and high clouds associated with the warm air advection will move eastward toward the region. Moisture channel satellite imagery depicts a deep trof over the eastern US with north to northwest upper flow over IL. High pressure at surface to gradually track over state through Thursday.
/Tonight through Thursday/ Large area of high pressure will continue to settle southeast tonight from the lower Ohio Valley and into the southeastern CONUS by Thursday morning. Temperatures are expected to be warmer on Thursday though some of the warm advection will be negated by the snow pack over northern Iowa. /Thursday night through Wednesday/ Low level gulf moisture arrives Thursday night with good southerly flow developing ahead of an approaching low pressure trough. Areas of fog likely will develop especially over the snow pack regions as the high dew points move over the colder surface.
Cloud cover has remained well intact along and west of the US HWY 281 corridor today as moisture overnight and through the day has pooled up against the higher terrain of Mexico and the Plateau. This cloud cover has mitigated temperatures out west to the mid 60s but areas farther east have managed to reach into the low 70s. Weak isentropic upglide coupled with the low-level saturation could lead to a few patchy areas of drizzle across the Escarpment region and portions of the I-35 corridor. With the expected warmer start tomorrow morning, afternoon temperatures should manage to warm more than today with 70s and a few 80s likely.
Returning southeast winds this evening will help to usher in more moisture throughout the lower levels, and models suggest cigs developing toward midnight around 6Kft with lower cigs in the MVFR range around or shortly after sunrise. The increasing cloud cover overnight, combined with the return of southeasterly surface winds, should keep temperatures warmer than last night.
The ridge center is expected to slide toward Alabama tonight, and thus a freeze warning continues for tonight. Thursday night should not be as cold either with the ridge moving east, some cloud cover returning and southerly boundary layer winds returning. Although the northeast counties will be close to freezing toward sunrise, I will forgo a freeze warning for Thursday night there at this time.
A few mid level clouds observed approaching the coast this evening will gradually move inland as high pressure continues to shift east of the area. Skies should remain mostly clear through the night with high pressure centered to the north of the area. This high slides east on Thursday turning winds southeasterly and increasing cloud cover.
531 PM MDT Wed Mar 15 2017 Upper ridge building over the region will lead to dry weather with above average temperatures through Thursday. The upper ridge will shift off to the east late Thursday with an upper trough and surface cool front creating breezy conditions and a chance of rain on Thursday night.
Thus, temperatures will again fall into the low/mid 20s over much of western TN into portions of extreme northerly MS. There is some concern that a few areas southwest of Memphis may not fall much below freezing, but the ongoing Freeze Warning is in pretty good shape.
Skies should remain mostly clear through the night with high pressure centered to the north of the area. This high slides east on Thursday turning winds southeasterly and increasing cloud cover.
This should persist for a couple of more hours until the thermal profile in the low-levels of the atmosphere changes and reduces the efficiency of the smoke spread. Unseasonably strong mid level ridging and warm low level temps were measured across the southwestern states this morning and this airmass will overspread the region over the coming days.
Lows should drop to near freezing across inland Volusia and nrn Lake with mid to upper 30s across much of the remainder of the east central FL, except in the 40s along the immediate coast and beaches from near Patrick AFB south to Martin county.
555 PM MDT Wed Mar 15 2017 High clouds continuing to stream across much of the CWA but clearing from the west with the upper ridge moving slowly east into the Rocky mtn area.
Otherwise, cloud cover will keep temperatures a few degrees warmer over what we saw this morning, with lows in the mid and upper 50s.
High clouds continuing to stream across much of the CWA but clearing from the west with the upper ridge moving slowly east into the Rocky mtn area.
High pressure slides east of region tomorrow, marking the beginning of a gradual warming trend as winds shift to the south and west and advect warmer air in. Models begin to increase moisture in the 900mb-700mb levels Thursday night with a warm frontal passage, but keep the DGZ mainly dry.
Skies will continue to clear through this evening as the upper ridge axis slowly shifts east.
1124 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2017 Canadian high pressure will settle over the area tonight providing another very cold night with a hard freeze expected.
531 PM MDT Wed Mar 15 2017 The axis of high pressure over the Rockies today will flatten on Thursday as a trough begins to move onshore tonight over the Pacific Northwest with an embedded disturbance to our north.
A synoptic ridge in the upper troposphere will continue to move across the Northern Plains and dampen out tonight into Thursday as the next Pacific jet enters the Pac Northwest region. The large leeside trough developing today will remain in force tonight, keeping the gradient strong enough to support 10 to 15 mph winds through the night out of the south. The south winds will prevent sub freezing temperatures tonight, and in fact temperatures tomorrow morning will be 12 to 16 degrees above this morning's lows. The aforementioned leeside trough will push east on Thursday, with a significant amount of lower-mid tropospheric warming behind it (850/700mb temps of +23/+7 degC respectively along the CO border by late afternoon). East of the trough axis, winds will retain a south component (non-downslope), and temperatures will likely top out in the mid to upper 70s.
1200 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017 High Impact Weather Potential: A risk for nuisance wintry precipitation remains on Thursday night, especially near and north of I-94 where a messy mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain may be possible for a time. Quiet and bright/sunny afternoon across the area, and that leads us into a quiet night as high pressure slides just east of the area while some thicker cirrus invades from the west.
In the middle and upper levels (700-200 mb), latest available ir imagery overlaid with model streamline analysis as of 900 pm depict the center of a deep late winter cold core low pressure system near Quebec City. There is an ~ 100 knot plus jet at 250 mb at the base of this trough moving from Central America northeastwards to across the Florida Keys. The system trails a cold front across the Bahamas down into Eastern Cuba. Temperatures across the islands have fallen into the lower to middle 60s across the islands chain with dewpoints in the mid 50s. As this cool dense air moves across the warmer waters, winds near 20 knots can be expected.
657 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017 H5 analysis from earlier this morning has a longwave trough of low pressure over the eastern half of the CONUS with a ridge of high pressure located from the four corners, north into southern portions of Alberta and southern Saskatchewan. Closed low pressure was located over northern New York state with high pressure located over northern Mexico. At the surface, high pressure was anchored across the Ozarks and mid Mississippi valley. Elsewhere, temperatures were in the 40s with 50s along the highway 83 corridor.
A weak cold front will move through northern Utah tonight into Thursday morning.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 23 53 34 61 / 0 0 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 19 48 31 57 / 0 0 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 20 49 30 56 / 0 0 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 15 44 25 52 / 0 0 0 40 NC.
631 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017 (Tonight) Main focus for tonight will continue to be on the colder than normal temperatures as surface anticyclone slowly slides south and eastward into the lower Ohio Valley overnight tonight. Should be at least a few degrees warmer however in most locations as mid/high level cloudiness increases from west to east overnight tonight, with steady or even slowly rising temperatures after midnight tonight for western sections of the forecast area. Most areas will drop down into the low to mid 20s with the exception being portions of central Missouri due to the earlier onset of broken-overcast coverage of clouds. do expect a mostly cloudy to overcast day with temperatures quite a bit warmer than that of today.
The leading edge of a vigorous Pacific trough is diving eastward across Washington and Oregon this evening. A band of moisture in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere is sweeping across southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho ahead of the trough. 10 inches for the lower valleys of southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho, and 0.
An expanse of cloud cover and chilly (but departing) high pressure have kept temperatures well below normal today; however, after one more chilly night, strongly increasing temperatures aloft and increasing southwest winds will help temperatures rise into the 50s to near 60 degrees Thursday afternoon even with some stratus redeveloping later in the day.
Southerly winds will develop Thursday with gusts into the low to mid 20s expected.
The current large scale pattern has deep troughs over eastern North America and over the eastern Pacific, with a modest ridge over the inter-mountain West. Snow totals along do not look sufficient to warrant an advisory, but freezing precipitation might.
/ISSUED 306 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017/ Cloud cover around Galveston Bay has been persistent and has kept temps a bit cooler than fcst today.
A ridge of high pressure will remain over the region through Thursday. A cold front associated with an upper level trough moving across the northern part of the country will drop south across eastern Colorado Thursday night.
Subjective 12Z upper-air analysis indicates a deep upper-level low from the mid-Atlantic into New England and a broader upper-level ridge over the western US, with northwesterly flow still prevailing across the central US. Mid-level warm air advection was evident, with a gradient of 11-13 degrees from east to west across NE/KS/SD and with southwesterly winds behind a mid-level ridge passing through eastern NE/eastern KS.
Northerly winds were observed in the lower levels, northwest flow in the mid levels, and primarily west winds in the upper levels.
Overnight low temperatures are expected to remain above freezing across most of the area.
754 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2017 High pressure will build into the area Thursday and move off to the east Thursday night.
/issued 241 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017/ High pressure is expected to drift across the region tonight.
A weak storm system swept across Northern California today, bringing increased cloud cover, onshore flow, much cooler temperatures, and light precipitation. Most notifiable were the cooler temperatures that peaked somewhere between 10 and 20 degrees cooler at some point today at most locations (exception being southern Monterey and San Benito county which were somewhat excluded from this system).
High pressure will continue to settle into the region and cold air advection will continue to take place across the region tonight. Wind chill values in the lower 30s are possible in Glades county and then in the mid to upper 30s across interior sections. High pressure will continue to bring dry conditions to the region tomorrow. /issued 406 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2017/ An area of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather across the region through the end of the work week.
Meanwhile over the mid MS valley, a stream of mid level moisture is trying to move into the forecast area, but does not look too intimidating at the moment as it experiences quite a bit of subsidence on the east side of the mid level ridge. However, temperatures in the warning area will have fallen to the freezing mark by midnight ahead of the cloud deck. /26/ Thursday night through Wednesday: High pressure will continue moving east of the area Thursday night with ridging building in from the west.
942 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2017 High pressure will build into the area Thursday and move off to the east Thursday night.
646 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017 High Impact Weather Potential: A risk for nuisance wintry precipitation remains on Thursday night, especially near and north of I-94 where a messy mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain may be possible for a time. Quiet and bright/sunny afternoon across the area, and that leads us into a quiet night as high pressure slides just east of the area while some thicker cirrus invades from the west.
Conditions will improve tonight into Thursday as high pressure builds in.
Surface flow will also veer slightly downslope as very warm air moves in beneath a passing upper ridge axis. Temperatures Thursday afternoon should shoot up 20 degrees warmer than today for most of the area. RMcQueen Thursday evening opens with weak height falls as a NW flow impulse erodes ridging previously over the region.
High pressure ridge over the cwa bringing sunny skies to the cwa today. To the west of the ridge on the return flow, clouds were evident in the Plains and as far east as the western third of Iowa. Forecast focus on warmer temperatures with a slight chance of light rain or snow on Thursday. Tonight: High pressure ridge will gradually shift to the east allowing for the warm air advection overcast deck to our west also to push eastward. Forecast soundings indicate gradual top-down saturation but the dilemma is when the low levels saturate. Due to the low confidence if the low levels saturate enough, will keep slight pops for now and let later shifts monitor later model runs.
1154 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017 The Ozarks Region was within the inflection of a departing trough and an approaching ridge to the west.
1115 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017 Early afternoon visible satellite imagery together with RAP13 surface analysis showed high pressure and clear skies across most of Minnesota and Wisconsin. Despite the light winds, temperatures warmed above freezing at most locations along and north of I-94, with cooler temperatures near I-90 where there was more snow cover. Over the next 24 hours the ridge of high pressure will shift eastward and warm air advection will move from the Dakotas into western MN and lead to isentropic ascent, mid level clouds, and some light precipitation on Thursday.
848 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017 The high pressure ridge associated with the Canadian/Arctic air mass is still just to our west this evening, but is moving slowly eastward. Dew point values in this air mass are quite low, ranging from the upper single digits in some locations to the low 20s. Winds are already decreasing with the loss of daytime mixing and light or calm winds are expected overnight as the high shifts overhead.