Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
From southern Fayette to Grant county where dew points have increased into the lower 30s, some stray flakes may sneak their way to the ground. Pressure gradient tightens up Saturday before a cold front swings through the region overnight. Although afternoon high temperatures will climb into the lower 60s for some locations, the increased wind speeds will put a chill on the air.
At the surface, a strong cold front stretches from far southeast KS into central OK. Tonight/Sat morning we will again see temps very close to freezing, so it's not out of the question another freeze/frost headline will be needed.
326 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2020 Strong forcing from an upper level trough pushing into the area from the west was producing several bands of moderate snow. The highest snow amounts so far have been near 5 inches in our southern cwa. As the trough pushes to our east subsidence in the wake of the trough should allow for decreasing clouds in the afternoon. However, where the deepest snow cover exists temperatures may struggle to make the lower 40s. Tonight: High pressure will move into the area this evening then shift off to our east overnight. Saturday: Tight gradient with high pressure to our southeast and low pressure tracking along the United States/Canada border.
235 AM MDT Fri Apr 17 2020 Brief ridging will return throughout this morning, resulting in downsloping winds that will (alongside clear skies and good mixing) bring our temperatures up into the mid to upper 50s. It's associated cold front looks to pass through the area mid-Saturday morning, shifting winds to the north and northeast and following close behind it a surge of moisture.
Expect another night of freezing temperatures with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. High pressure will shift south of the area by early Saturday morning and the warm up will begin as warm air advection gets underway.
1054 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2020 (This evening through Friday) Showers and thunderstorms may develop along the cold front late this afternoon across northwest Oklahoma. In addition, the cold front will likely undercut any convection (resulting in a more anafrontal precipitation structure). The highest chance for rain will be near the Kansas/Oklahoma border across north central Oklahoma.
246 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2020 Early this morning, scattered showers with isolated embedded thunderstorms were located mainly along and directly behind a cold front extending from southeast Kansas and western Missouri into central Missouri. Colder air will be ushered in behind the cold front today as cloud cover and breezy northwesterly winds limit afternoon highs to the upper 40s to low 50s. The center of a high pressure system will then slide over the region by tonight into Saturday morning. After the cold start to the morning, Saturday will shape up to be a pleasant spring day as the high pressure slowly shifts to our east. This will lead to southerly winds, which will combine with ample sunshine to raise afternoon highs into the low to mid 60s.
I have issued a SCA with the expectation that winds increase with the passage of upper trof and upstream obs already showing gusts in that range over land. An area of low pressure passes to our south Friday night into Saturday morning, but southern NH and extreme southwestern ME will be on the northern edge of the precipitation shield as it does so. 5 inches with the highest amounts, up to 2 inches, forecast for southwest and south central NH. The system quickly moves off to the east by late Saturday morning and no precipitation is expected through Saturday night as a small area of high pressure builds into New England. High pressure axis slides by Saturday night as brief ridging exists between the departing low and the broader trough to our northwest.
Temperatures were already near to below the forecast lows at a few locations, so made the necessary downward adjustments to the lows tonight. /issued 230 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2020/ Weak high pressure in the Gulf is causing zonal flow today and tomorrow. The weak high pressure is expected to move eastward by Saturday.
339 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2020 Widespread precipitation is expected later today and tonight with crossing low pressure.
Meanwhile, at the surface, a weak cold front will approach the region from the north.
Satellite showing clear skies over the region this evening with upper ridge offshore and northerly flow. An upper low will be moving south through BC on Fri and into the Pacific northwest on Saturday. The low will be directly over the forecast area in the afternoon with cold air aloft.
At the surface, high pressure resides across much of the area with light westerly winds. Upper ridge weakens with flow becoming more cyclonic late Saturday.
A slip back into MVFR territory, with diminishing winds, reduced visibilities, and increased clouds, is forecast for Friday night as a weak cold front begins to approach from the north. Overnight lows only drop into the mid 60s to lower 70s, highs on Friday climb into the mid 80s to near 90 (even with overcast conditions)and even stickier conditions Friday night with lows only bottoming out in the low to mid 70s.
352 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2020 In the upper levels a flat ridge stretches across the southern tier of states with a cut off low along the CA coast. This low will track across AZ tonight and open up as it as it moves across NM Saturday.
Breaks in the clouds will begin this afternoon, with clearing skies tonight as the main trough axis from this storm moves through the area. Temperatures will rebound 10 to 20 degrees warmer, as a result. Saturday will be mainly dry, with breezy winds and warmer temperatures.
905 PM PDT Thu Apr 16 2020 Marine layer clouds will spread into the valleys tonight as a low pressure system makes its way into Southern California. This low will bring periods of light rain and mountain snow, cooling, and gusty west winds over the mountains and deserts Friday into Saturday.
Generally looking at temperatures from 10 to 15 degrees warmer than last night. High pressure is moving across the Ohio Valley this afternoon and will continue east to the Atlantic coast by this evening. Through tonight the ridge will continue to the mid-Atlantic Coast while the upper disturbance moves closer. Friday the onshore flow will pull in gulf moisture around the departing ridge and a weak area of low pressure that develops in the plains and moves toward the midwest.
Showers will continue to move east across the area this morning as the low level jet veers and the moisture converge spreads eastward across the area. The showers will move out of the area from west to east late this morning and and early this afternoon as the low level forcing moves east of the area and drier air moves into the area behind a cold front that will move through the area this morning. Clouds will move out the area this evening and the winds will become light as high pressure moves into the area. The high will move off to the east on Saturday which will allow for warm air advection.
311 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2020 Today marks the beginning of a warmer and generally dry stretch of days across the forecast area. Low level flow settles around to south-southwest tonight, and this along with overall warmer air mass should hold temperatures near to slightly above freezing in most areas tonight. Only other feature of note is an elongated upper trough currently extending from western SD into northern MN. Sub-cloud layer looks rather dry on forecast soundings, but cannot rule out a stray sprinkle east of the Highway 60 corridor in northwest Iowa/south central Minnesota this afternoon.
This will set the stage for patchy freezing fog, locally dense at times, through the overnight hours across portions of southeast WY and the southern NE Panhandle. As this slowly propagates to the east, there may be enough forcing aloft to allow a few snow showers over the higher terrain on Saturday.
Lower ceilings will move back into the region ahead of the next cold front.
327 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2020 Widespread precipitation is expected later today and tonight with crossing low pressure.
250 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2020 Cold front moved through the area overnight bringing gusty northerly winds to the area with rapidly falling temperatures.
Thus far little snow has made it up above the WI/IL border due to dry air in the low levels but that should begin to moisten up. Generally we could expect up to a dusting this morning and as we expect to moisten in the low levels a bit more.
A western Atlantic ridge axis lying across the Southeast United States will retreat eastward and sag southward to across extreme South Florida into the Straits of Florida this weekend.
332 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2020 High pressure over our area will move east by this afternoon and off the Coast tonight. A cold front will drop southeast across the region tonight into Saturday bringing the opportunity for rain.
Basically, a weak cold front will move through the state today with a better chance of more widespread precipitation very late in the period. Upper pattern this morning continues to feature broad troughing over a good part of the northern CONUS resulting in zonal flow over the mid south. A fairly weak upper level impulse embedded in said flow will pass to the north of us today, dragging a cold front through the state as it does. Lee side cyclogenesis will commence and race off to the NE, pulling the stalled out front back to the north as a warm front Saturday night.
A closed low off the coast will move inland into SoCal today. This will bring increased clouds and cooler temperatures into the weekend. Showers this morning are possible on the northern fringe of the low over the deformation axis, south of I-80.
However, that high pressure dominating the southeastern CONUS moves off the Atlantic Coast this morning, and winds are becoming increasingly southerly across the region. This southerly return flow ushers warmer temperatures and moisture into the region ahead of the next system. A cold front will settle into the mid Mississippi River Valley later tonight bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Otherwise looking for a mostly sunny day today with warmer temperatures back into the 40s. A dry subsident northwest flow aloft will prevail through tonight behind the exiting trough. Lows tonight will be warmer with 20s for most locations. A weak upper level trough will move across the area on Sat. Once again, will see a chc of showers, mainly over the higher terrain, due to favorable lapse rates. There is still enough moisture around, for another chc of aftn showers, mainly across the higher terrain. Highs across nern CO will rise into the lower to mid 60s. Looking ahead to Tue, an upper level trough will move across the srn Rockies.
/issued 250 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2020/ Cold front moved through the area overnight bringing gusty northerly winds to the area with rapidly falling temperatures.
High temperatures today will top out in the low to mid 40s.
Early morning GOES water vapor imagery showed zonal southern branch flow across the Midsouth, downstream of a northern branch trof dropping southeast through the northern plains. This trof and associated surface cold front will drop into the mid-MS River valley today, with the surface cold front eventually outrunning the positively-tilted upper trof by this evening. Low level return flow will commence in earnest Saturday night, in advance of an open southern branch trof.
436 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2020 Latest surface analysis showed the old frontal boundary over Florida Straits to the southeast Gulf and a 1027mb high over Mid- Atlantic States with an associated ridge axis extending southwest to Lower Mississippi Valley. In addition, a 1014mb low was located over southern Missouri with an associated cold front southwest to Texas Panhandle. Upper air analysis showed a trough axis over Central Plains, a low off the California coast, and another low over British Columbia. The ridge of high pressure will slowly retreat east today. Today will be our transitional day with slightly warmer temps returning going into the weekend.
Upper support quite weak but later tonight, a weak trailing cold front will push by, as strong SFC/LL high pressure builds in behind. Weak moisture return will occur ahead of the cold front and while there will be some decent shear, there looks to be little instability to work with. SFC/LL high pressure and upper ridge do rule the first half of the week, keeping things dry Mon really until later Wed. Do not really see any freezing temps on the immediate horizon, as they will be very close to seasonal normals through the next bunch of days. VFR conditions are expected through today but degrading conditions can be expected tonight as a cold front passes.
700 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2020 Dry weather continues, with warmer temperatures both today and tomorrow. This trough will slowly migrate southeast today, and height falls ahead of it together with low level theta_e advection and afternoon surface heating will lead to cloud development later today. On Saturday a cold front will pass through the region, but not before temperatures warm into the 60s for most locations.
Fog is mainly impacting the area with the higher snowfall totals with yesterday's system. Temps could be warmer than I expect given these conditions despite the snow.
531 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2020 Widespread precipitation is expected later today and tonight with crossing low pressure.
Wind chill values at Laramie have been -10 to -20 overnight with freezing fog. Fog/Freezing fog still present in patchy spots along the North Platte River Valley overnight thanks to the developing inversion aloft in the lower levels of the atmosphere. The Pine Ridge area in northern Sioux and Dawes County could reach 50 degrees because of the minimum snow amounts from yesterday. Upper level ridge that is currently over British Columbia, Canada will propagate toward the region from the northwest today. This would allow afternoon highs to be 15 to 20 degrees warmer compared to yesterday very easily.
With southerly return flow underway and increasing cloud cover, temperatures are much warmer tonight than the last few nights, in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Saturday will be dry but a touch cooler with high pressure overhead.
Flight category should remain vfr deep into the night when a cold front brings light rain showers and some lowering ceilings. The lowest flight condition would most likely be mvfr due mainly to ceiling with the best possibility of an mvfr vsby restriction in light rain and fog occurring at tri toward the end of the valid taf. Weather should be quite nice today across the Southern Appalachian region, with a fair amount of sunshine in a regime complete with retreating high pressure and a dry lower level atmosphere. While there should be an increase in high clouds today, more than sufficient insolation and a healthy south to southwesterly breeze will result in a warmer day across the forecast area.
615 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2020 High pressure over our area will move east by this afternoon and off the Coast tonight. A cold front will drop southeast across the region tonight into Saturday bringing the opportunity for rain.
VFR conditions are expected through today but degrading conditions can be expected tonight as a cold front passes.
1033 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2020 Currently - A high pressure system continues to move eastward off and away from the mid Atlantic coast. Zonal flow is in place loft with the jet well to our north and the lower level ridge near the Keys. This mornings sounding indicated a bit more moisture through the lower levels than the previous few days. High pressure moving eastward away from the mid Atlantic coast and day time heating over South Florida will result in winds gradually relaxing and veering east to southeast on Keys waters.
311 AM MDT Fri Apr 17 2020 A dry subsident northwest flow aloft will prevail through tonight behind the exiting trough. Lows tonight will be warmer with 20s for most locations. A weak upper level trough will move across the area on Sat. Once again, will see a chc of showers, mainly over the higher terrain, due to favorable lapse rates. There is still enough moisture around, for another chc of aftn showers, mainly across the higher terrain. Highs across nern CO will rise into the lower to mid 60s. Looking ahead to Tue, an upper level trough will move across the srn Rockies.
Temperatures tonight are once again expected to fall well below freezing tonight, bringing the potential for damage to sensitive vegetation. Vigorous diabatic cooling of this lower layer should allow the rain to rapidly change to snow. Overall and generally the models were not handling this cooling very well, favoring warmer solutions with more rain and less snow. Areas farther east from Monticello to Portland that were in the upper 30s should cool enough in the lower layers for rain to change to snow for a few hours. Snowfall amounts north of this line look to be relative uniform from 4 to 6 inches (highest on grassy areas), but much lower from Marion to Portland where 2 inches may be the high end. Indiana DOT RWIS data shows pavement temps of roads and bridges in northern Indiana were still several degrees above freezing.
648 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2020 A cold front will move across the state today but precipitation will be limited. Basically, a weak cold front will move through the state today with a better chance of more widespread precipitation very late in the period. Upper pattern this morning continues to feature broad troughing over a good part of the northern CONUS resulting in zonal flow over the mid south. A fairly weak upper level impulse embedded in said flow will pass to the north of us today, dragging a cold front through the state as it does. Lee side cyclogenesis will commence and race off to the NE, pulling the stalled out front back to the north as a warm front Saturday night.
614 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2020 (Today and tonight) Strong cold front will continue to push south across the area this morning with gusty north winds and much cooler temperatures today. Most of the area will drop into the 30s with parts of northern Oklahoma falling to just above the freezing mark by Saturday morning.
At the surface, a strong cold front stretches from far southeast KS into central OK. Tonight/Sat morning we will again see temps very close to freezing, so it's not out of the question another freeze/frost headline will be needed. The IFR conditions are expected clear from the region as the low pressure system to the south and east continues to move away from the region.
632 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2020 Today marks the beginning of a warmer and generally dry stretch of days across the forecast area. Low level flow settles around to south-southwest tonight, and this along with overall warmer air mass should hold temperatures near to slightly above freezing in most areas tonight. Only other feature of note is an elongated upper trough currently extending from western SD into northern MN. Sub-cloud layer looks rather dry on forecast soundings, but cannot rule out a stray sprinkle east of the Highway 60 corridor in northwest Iowa/south central Minnesota this afternoon.
With clear skies, decent insolation, and mixing today, highs will be about 15-20 degrees warmer than yesterday.
/issued 352 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2020/ In the upper levels a flat ridge stretches across the southern tier of states with a cut off low along the CA coast. This low will track across AZ tonight and open up as it as it moves across NM Saturday.
840 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2020 High pressure over our area will move east by this afternoon and off the Coast tonight. A cold front will drop southeast across the region tonight into Saturday bringing the opportunity for rain.
424 AM MDT Fri Apr 17 2020 Warm and breezy conditions are expected today with compressional warming ahead of a cold front passage this afternoon. Post cold front passage expect the development of scattered showers, both rain and snow as temperatures drop overnight. Any snow accumulations will be minimal as overall most of the precipitation will be rain with low temperatures generally remaining above freezing.
Tonight, winds will diminish and a weak cold front will begin to ease south, allowing cloudiness to thicken and lower to MVFR levels. Meanwhile, at the surface, a weak cold front will approach the region from the north.
Early this morning, scattered showers with isolated embedded thunderstorms were located mainly along and directly behind a cold front extending from southeast Kansas and western Missouri into central Missouri. Colder air will be ushered in behind the cold front today as cloud cover and breezy northwesterly winds limit afternoon highs to the upper 40s to low 50s. The center of a high pressure system will then slide over the region by tonight into Saturday morning. After the cold start to the morning, Saturday will shape up to be a pleasant spring day as the high pressure slowly shifts to our east. This will lead to southerly winds, which will combine with ample sunshine to raise afternoon highs into the low to mid 60s.
(modified prev) East winds 15-20kt will veer SE by this evening and then quickly shift to S-SW overnight on the back side of the retreating Atlantic ridge.
A cold front will sweep thru the sites this morning, with MVFR/IFR cigs filling in behind the front thru the morning. /Issued 254 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2020/ A strong cold front is beginning to make its way through the area early this morning and will continue to push southward through the day. Given the expected position and timing of the high pressure, areas immediately near the Kansas and Missouri borders will have the best chance to see a freeze.
Scattered showers over the eastern mountains will dissipate during the morning as upper level ridging takes place over southern Colorado. Otherwise, high temperatures are expected across all of the lower elevations and high temperatures in the 20s are expected over the mountains. Low temperatures are expected to be in the upper 20s and low 30s across all of the lower elevations and teens are expected over the mountains. This pattern will likely bring a chance of showers and storms, especially during peak heating, over the mountains, with a somewhat lesser chance over the lower elevations. This is in response to numerous weak disturbance moving across the area, which, combined with warming temps in the low levels will allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop over the region.
957 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2020 Widespread precipitation is expected later today and tonight with crossing low pressure.
228 AM PDT Fri Apr 17 2020 A low pressure system moving through southern California today will bring a chance of showers along with a slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon for mountain and desert portions of San Bernardino County.
433 AM MDT Fri Apr 17 2020 Satellite imagery shows a few mid and low level clouds with localized thicker clouds favoring the high elevations in some portions of the CWA. The low gets absorbed into the main flow and moves east allowing another chance of precipitaiton to move in starting Saturday morning. Freezing temperatures in the lower valleys of west-central Colorado remain the immediate concern this morning. Both GJT and MTJ have fallen below freezing already with AJZ not far behind. These areas will finally get a break from the cooler-than-normal lows as the warmer southwest air moves in raising temperatures by about 10 degrees in central and northern portions of the forecast area tonight and beyond.
523 AM MDT Fri Apr 17 2020 The trough that was persistent across the region yesterday will move to the east today, taking along the cold pool at the sfc and aloft.
430 AM MDT Fri Apr 17 2020 The trough that was persistent across the region yesterday will move to the east today, taking along the cold pool at the sfc and aloft.