Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
821 PM MST Wed Mar 9 2022 Upper level trof continues to impact the region tonight with continued snow and cold temperatures. Thursday night, an upper level trough will stretch from Ontario Canada southwestward across Colorado and into Baja Mexico. This trough will be split with most of the energy over the Upper Midwest and Southwestern Arizona. On Friday, the upper trough will move into the Central Plains States as an upper level ridge of high pressure pushes onto the west coast of the U. There may be just enough moisture caught up in the flow to produce a few light snow showers, mainly over the high mountain peaks Friday afternoon.
1259 AM EST Thu Mar 10 2022 An area of low pressure will move along a stalled frontal zone south of the area today.
139 AM MST Thu Mar 10 2022 Western CONUS ridging will ensue in the period as the central NOAM trough gradually breaks down, shifting east in the process. Potent front side Clipper system will support one more strong cold front into the Northern Plains today, reinforcing below normal temps through Friday. Western ridge will shift east this weekend with WAA spreading into the region via breezy westerly winds.
1146 PM EST Wed Mar 9 2022 Weak lake-aggregate troughing remains over the Great Lakes region late this evening. Remaining weak troughing should gradually break down overnight as upstream ridging begins to poke into the Western Great Lakes. Pattern/Forecast: Longwave troughing through much of the CONUS, with multiple waves moving through the larger-scale flow. Its associated cold front is currently crossing NE lower, with colder air filtering in behind it.
1059 PM EST Wed Mar 9 2022 High pressure for Thursday and most of Friday brings dry and seasonable weather.
Thursday night we'll be watching a potent cold front dropping south through the CWA, with a fresh shot of arctic air. The period opens with a slowly exiting upper trough and building high pressure at the sfc with cold air in place ahead of the high. Recovery is expected over the weekend as an upper ridge builds in from the west.
A much stronger trough will finally push in Fri night into Sat which will bring the shot of colder air to the area and better chances for a wintry mix for the SE half or so of the area.
This first band of snow should rapidly taper from the west to the east as the main synoptic trof starts to move away from the region by mid morning. Otherwise, highs today will remain quite cold with values struggling to get much above the lower to mid 20s. Have the highest confidence of snow along the Oklahoma border, where the lift is expected to be the strongest. Other than the early morning snow across the south on Friday, cold high pressure will build in behind this precipitation. Some of the guidance ramps up the downslope, but don't want to get too taken back by the warmer solutions depending on how future snowpack evolves to impact temperatures. The net result is a dry forecast and warmer highs.
A large and broad positively tilted upper trof pattern over much of the CONUS transitions to a more meridionally oriented trof over the central CONUS on Friday. The stalled frontal boundary over the central to northeast Gulf meanwhile advances northward as a warm front and moves into the central portion of the forecast area Friday afternoon. Overnight lows range from the lower to upper 40s along and west of I-65 to the lower 50s further to the east. Highs on Thursday range from the upper 60s well inland to the lower 70s elsewhere. Lows Thursday night range from the mid 40s to around 50 along and west of I-65 to the lower to mid 50s further to the east. Highs on Friday will be in the lower to mid 70s.
Confidence continues to increase in a very windy setup behind the cold front Friday night. Rather impressive sfc pressure rises behind the cold front overnight Friday night combined with strong CAA will lead to strong northwesterly winds and gusts. This in combination with an approaching cold front during the day on Friday will up our chances for showers and thunderstorms for much of Friday, with an isolated chance to see a strong to severe thunderstorm during the afternoon hours on Friday.
Meanwhile, an elongated mid/upper trough is progged to stretch from the Central Great Basin area north and eastward over the Northern Plains. As this mid/upper trough slowly emerges from the north and west, we expect to see an area of mid-level frontogenesis develop and strengthen in the vicinity of the Nebraska state line. This will serve to increase the mid-level baroclinic zone providing a period of coupled forcing along and north of I-70 late tonight and into the morning hours on Thu as the upper trough slowly approaches. Seasonably cool temperatures are anticipated with most areas seeing highs in the low to mid 40s. A mid/upper ridge will bring rising heights and increasing thickness supporting rising temperatures through the remainder of the forecast period with above normal readings with highs in the 70s by the middle of the week.
355 AM EST Thu Mar 10 2022 High pressure for Thursday and most of Friday brings dry and seasonable weather.
Look for VFR wx the rest of the way as high pressure builds into the region.
924 PM CST Wed Mar 9 2022 (Issued 924 PM CST Wed Mar 9 2022) Drier low level air continues to funnel into southern WI on brisk west to northwest winds in the low levels, as high pressure continues to build into the northern Plains. However, HREF and soundings suggests some higher clouds filtering in overnight which could keep temps slightly warmer in spots. Temps are only expected to climb into the 20s during the day Thursday as the high slide southeastward and weakens in between two areas of low pressure. Meanwhile snowfall trends with the Thursday evening system developing along the departed cold front's baroclinic zone continues to trend south with only a few hi-res models suggesting portions of southeastern WI getting clipped by any of its snow.
423 AM EST Thu Mar 10 2022 Cold air will continue to settle over the area behind a cold front that passed yesterday.
A strong cold front then moves through Friday night with rain changing to snow.
The cold with generally below freezing highs will linger through Friday.
With high pressure continuing to build in today, expect slightly warmer temperatures by Friday afternoon.
Sinking air throughout the atmospheric column due to ridging at the surface and mid levels should impede shower development over the island chain during the afternoon and evenings. The high will cause veering winds at the surface and mid levels of the atmosphere.
432 AM MST Thu Mar 10 2022 Western CONUS ridging will ensue in the period as the central NOAM trough gradually breaks down, shifting east in the process. Potent front side Clipper system will support one more strong cold front into the Northern Plains today, reinforcing below normal temps through Friday. Western ridge will shift east this weekend with WAA spreading into the region via breezy westerly winds.
Despite the cloud cover, lack of snow cover may allow for enough mixing to get locations along our southern periphery into the low 30s today. A strong cold front will surge through the forecast area early Friday morning.
646 AM EST Thu Mar 10 2022 High pressure will keep dry weather and warmer temperature in the forecast through Friday.
658 AM EST Thu Mar 10 2022 Aviation - Snow Threat Tonight into Friday - A shallow trough extending across the upper mid west will be behind some isentropic lift that should allow for bands of snowfall through southern Michigan.
530 AM CST Thu Mar 10 2022 (12Z TAFS) The cold front, ahead of schedule, was nearing HOB with the initial wind shift at MAF expected between 13Z-14Z. Elsewhere the leading edge of a strong cold front, which as of this writing was already INVOF Clovis, will bisect the CWFA from HOB-MAF-S of BPG at 21Z. Model trends are little warmer vs 24hrs prior, 60-65 across the n, M60s-L70s cntrl PB, and M70s-M80s lower elevations of the Trans Pecos. If the mid-level trof/low is farther s then better/deeper mstr also will be farther s and thus higher SN amounts would be warranted across the SE NM/PB.
Friday will be mostly sunny and dry as upper ridge starts to build in from the west. as a deep/pronounced upper level trough progresses eastward across the MS River Valley to the Eastern Seaboard.
Skies should clear out later this morning as winds increase from the southwest out ahead of a clipper low and associated Arctic cold front. These winds will advect in warmer and drier mid to low-level air, leading to deep mixing with inverted-v soundings. Northwest winds remain breezy from Friday morning into the afternoon, as the low pressure system departs and high pressure moves in.
Temperatures early this morning range from the lower 40s across the northern ranchlands to the mid to upper 50s near coast as a diffuse warm front waffles across the area. Low to mid level moisture will continue to move into the area today as the somewhat ill-defined warm front lifts north across the Western Gulf of Mexico. This feature along with a broad area of inverted troughing may generate a few showers, mainly across the Gulf waters, today into tonight. Weak warm air advection will allow high temperatures today to reach the low to mid 70s, across much of the CWA this afternoon. Friday will warm with highs climbing into the upper 70s and the lower 80s as the southerly flow increases. The next cold front moves into deep south Texas Friday afternoon.
The highest snowfall rates should remain along or south of the NE/KS border, and mirror the eastward shift in a band of 850 mb frontogenesis this morning. As it is still snowing, the Advisory and Warning products were left in place despited the lower snowfall forecast. Breezy and Cold Friday: A trough moving across the northern tier of the U. will push a another cold front through our region Friday morning. Weekend Warmup: A rapid warm up is expected over the weekend, with ridging aloft, southerly surface winds (WAA), and downsloping in the lee of the Rockies all playing their part. Thus our temperatures forecast has trended warmer for the weekend.
/issued 415 AM CST Thu Mar 10 2022/ Expect a cool early spring day for the Mid South today as temperatures rise into the lower 60s.
(Today and tonight) The main story for the short term forecast will be the cold front moving into the area this afternoon through tonight. As the trough moves into our area today, the cold front is expected to be held up briefly, before moving south into our CWA during the afternoon hours. Lows will range from the mid 20s across much of the northern half to the lower 30s along and south of I-10.
A cold trough will continue to shift across the Great Basin today, with some of the coldest temperatures of the winter across many locations by Friday morning.
We should stay above freezing in the far northwest for much of the day. If the initial band of snowfall in that area comes down hard enough it may knock temperatures right down to freezing and may create some slush on some roadways, especially bridges. Southeast of that line, the snowfall accumulations will mainly be in the evening, and the impact will be directly related to the freezing line. It is possible that much of the snow will fall before temperatures drop below freezing which would limit the travel impacts. Of greater concern may be flash freezing of wet roads as the temperatures drop below freezing.
For the rest of the day an upper level trough will move across the area, however main energy with this feature will stay over srn CO. By tonight, the upper level trough will move south of the area with any lingering light snow ending during the evening.
Friday will be even warmer, as winds shift around to the south, and warm advection occurs.
326 AM PST Thu Mar 10 2022 A low pressure from the north will bring strong gusty north winds for this afternoon and tonight with the winds gradually diminishing Friday.
547 AM CST Thu Mar 10 2022 (Today and tonight) The main story for the short term forecast will be the cold front moving into the area this afternoon through tonight. As the trough moves into our area today, the cold front is expected to be held up briefly, before moving south into our CWA during the afternoon hours. Lows will range from the mid 20s across much of the northern half to the lower 30s along and south of I-10.
During the early morning hours Friday, warm advection will be on the increase, and this could bring a few showers up to the Highway 84 corridor by around daybreak.
The highest totals will be patchy and limited to counties along the NE/KS border. The highest snowfall rates should remain along or south of the NE/KS border, and mirror the eastward shift in a band of 850 mb frontogenesis this morning. As it is still snowing, the Advisory and Warning products were left in place despited the lower snowfall forecast. Breezy and Cold Friday: A trough moving across the northern tier of the U. will push a another cold front through our region Friday morning. Weekend Warmup: A rapid warm up is expected over the weekend, with ridging aloft, southerly surface winds (WAA), and downsloping in the lee of the Rockies all playing their part. Thus our temperatures forecast has trended warmer for the weekend.
249 AM MST Thu Mar 10 2022 A cold front will drop south during the day today.
704 AM EST Thu Mar 10 2022 High pressure for Thursday and most of Friday brings dry and seasonable weather.
There will be brief breaks in the weather through the day, but mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers and isolated storms will be possible through the day, with the highest chances during the mid afternoon hours.
502 AM EST Thu Mar 10 2022 High pressure will keep dry weather and warmer temperature in the forecast through Friday.
Temperatures will be warmer today, into the 20s for highs with the more downsloping, westerly flows. Friday will see the temperatures finally rising above the freezing mark.
610 AM EST Thu Mar 10 2022 Cold air will continue to settle over the area behind a cold front that passed yesterday.
This afternoon will be the coldest day for the foreseeable future, as high temperatures struggle to reach the freezing mark across western Montana.
Moisture levels will increase late tonight into Fri morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Chances for precip will increase beyond this TAF period as the cold front drops SE into the state. A cold front to the NW will begin dropping SE into the state late tonight. the aforementioned cold front will drop SE into the state during the daylight hrs on Fri morning. This will also be aided by well above freezing temps initially before the cold air arrives. especially in the higher terrain of the Ozarks.
415 AM CST Thu Mar 10 2022 Expect a cool early spring day for the Mid South today as temperatures rise into the lower 60s.
Winds will begin the period predominately out of the east and southeast across all sites shifting to out of the northwest and north by the end of the forecast period as a cold front tracks across the state throughout the day on Friday. A cold front to the NW will begin dropping SE into the state late tonight. the aforementioned cold front will drop SE into the state during the daylight hrs on Fri morning. This will also be aided by well above freezing temps initially before the cold air arrives. especially in the higher terrain of the Ozarks.
A cooling trend will continue today as an area of low pressure brushes Southwest California.
In fact, any wet road will likely ice up towards sunset, as we're plenty cold, in the lower to mid 20s. Friday, another strong cold front arrives early in the day.
156 PM CST Thu Mar 10 2022 An elongated mid/upper trough axis stretched from the Central Great Basin area across the Rockies and into the Northern Plains early this afternoon.
108 PM EST Thu Mar 10 2022 High pressure will keep dry weather and warmer temperature in the forecast through Friday.
Lower cloud cover that developed overnight and lingers this morning should again lift and break up into the late morning, with enough daytime heating to allow temperatures to warm into the low 80s across Lake/Volusia counties and mid to upper 80s south before convection increases into the afternoon.
Should still see highs rise into the low to mid 30s along and west of the James River. Skies should clear out later this morning as winds increase from the southwest out ahead of a clipper low and associated Arctic cold front. These winds will advect in warmer and drier mid to low-level air, leading to deep mixing with inverted-v soundings. Northwest winds remain breezy from Friday morning into the afternoon, as the low pressure system departs and high pressure moves in.
850 AM PST Thu Mar 10 2022 A trough moving across Southern California today will shift onshore westerly winds to the northeast with its passage.
345 PM EST Thu Mar 10 2022 A series of low pressure systems will move up the coast through Friday night.
1019 AM MST Thu Mar 10 2022 Western CONUS ridging will ensue in the period as the central NOAM trough gradually breaks down, shifting east in the process. Potent front side Clipper system will support one more strong cold front into the Northern Plains today, reinforcing below normal temps through Friday. Western ridge will shift east this weekend with WAA spreading into the region via breezy westerly winds.
Highs have been in the 20s to near freezing. Soundings this morning and early afternoon indicate that gusts could lay for a bit overnight as mixing tapers off and winds start to shift ahead of a cold front. Otherwise, cold front will approach from the northwest. Majority of hi-res guidance shows a dry passage and soundings support this with a lack of moisture in the low levels; however, could see some isolated flurries across southwestern MN and across the Highway 14 corridor, as a couple hi-res model runs today have hinted at just enough low level moisture for flurries. Cold high pressure Friday night, existing snow cover, and northwesterly flow force lows into the single digits either side of zero.
146 PM MST Thu Mar 10 2022 20z surface analysis had low near CYDN with warm front into eastern SD and cold front into northern MT. Gusty westerly winds over northwest SD in response to 4mb/3hr pressure falls along warm front. Synoptic forcing weak, but low level baroclinic zone behind cold front will be sufficient to support a few shsn, particularly over far northeast WY into the northern Black Hills. The weekend looks much warmer and mostly dry as upper ridge builds into the area with breezy westerly winds.
May see light snow or flurries drift off the higher terrain this afternoon. For the rest of the day an upper level trough will move across the area, however main energy with this feature will stay over srn CO. By tonight, the upper level trough will move south of the area with any lingering light snow ending during the evening.
1255 PM EST Thu Mar 10 2022 Aviation/Marine - Snow Threat Tonight into Friday - A shallow trough extending across the upper mid west will be behind some isentropic lift that should allow for bands of snowfall through southern Michigan.
1137 AM CST Thu Mar 10 2022 (Today and tonight) The main story for the short term forecast will be the cold front moving into the area this afternoon through tonight. As the trough moves into our area today, the cold front is expected to be held up briefly, before moving south into our CWA during the afternoon hours. Lows will range from the mid 20s across much of the northern half to the lower 30s along and south of I-10.
As the base of a strong, positively-tilted upper trough swings into the southern Plains on Friday, a stationary front to our northwest will begin advancing into the state. As expected, the Ouachita/Ozark mountains will receive the highest overall accumulation thanks to orographic effects and longer residence time in the cold post-frontal air (changeover to snow likely by Friday morning). As the trough nears Friday evening, it will begin to assume a more neutral tilt as it strengthens. Corresponding wind fields throughout the troposphere will increase markedly with pronounced jet streaks within the base of the trough.
AC Chattanooga Airport, TN 42 67 31 36 20 / 0 10 90 40 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 40 67 31 33 14 / 0 10 90 60 10 Oak Ridge, TN 40 66 29 33 14 / 0 10 90 60 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 38 65 32 35 14 / 0 10 100 70 10.
318 PM EST Thu Mar 10 2022 High pressure for Thursday and most of Friday brings dry and seasonable weather.
/issued 257 AM CST Thu Mar 10 2022/ The cold front is pushing through the region ahead of schedule. The positively tilted upper trough currently over northern California should be approaching/over the Four Corners around midnight tonight. Lift from the trough will also begin to move into the region with snow developing first across the northern and central Texas Panhandle before moving into the extreme southern Panhandle before sunrise. A chance for freezing drizzle does remain between midnight and sunrise across much of the area, but there is decent uncertainty in the low levels moistening enough before mid/upper level lift moves over the region providing enough lift for snow. One thing working against freezing drizzle is surface winds will be out of the north as opposed to easterly upslope flow.
ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 42 67 31 36 / 0 0 10 90 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 40 67 31 33 / 0 0 10 90 60 Oak Ridge, TN 60 40 66 29 33 / 0 0 10 90 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 38 65 32 35 / 0 0 10 100 70.
248 PM CST Thu Mar 10 2022 The first of several reinforcing waves of cold air spread south across our region earlier this morning behind a cold front that has slowed near or along the I20 corridor this afternoon. The base of a sharpening upper level trough will continue to pivot southeast out of southern Nevada this afternoon and into eastern Arizona overnight, then ultimately pass across New Mexico over the course of the day tomorrow. Snow will be the primary precipitation mode but some freezing drizzle and freezing rain is anticipated to mix in early on in the event across our northern zones. Then a wintry mix once again as diurnal temperatures climb just above freezing as precip moves south and east across the South Plains into the Rolling Plains tomorrow afternoon.
1035 AM EST Thu Mar 10 2022 High pressure for Thursday and most of Friday brings dry and seasonable weather.
953 AM CST Thu Mar 10 2022 Lowered the high temperature forecast for the Big Country by a few-to-several degrees due to observation/hi-res model trends indicating an earlier passage of the cold front into that region this afternoon. (Today and tonight) The main story for the short term forecast will be the cold front moving into the area this afternoon through tonight. As the trough moves into our area today, the cold front is expected to be held up briefly, before moving south into our CWA during the afternoon hours. Lows will range from the mid 20s across much of the northern half to the lower 30s along and south of I-10.
(Through tonight ) Cold front currently aligned near the Interstate 44 corridor across NE OK will accelerate southward overnight and clear NW AR and far SE OK early Friday morning.
1144 AM EST Thu Mar 10 2022 High pressure for Thursday and most of Friday brings dry and seasonable weather.
1153 AM CST Thu Mar 10 2022 (18Z TAFS) A cold front is draped just south and west of the Pecos River with N- NE winds prevailing at all terminals. Elsewhere the leading edge of a strong cold front, which as of this writing was already INVOF Clovis, will bisect the CWFA from HOB-MAF-S of BPG at 21Z. Model trends are little warmer vs 24hrs prior, 60-65 across the n, M60s-L70s cntrl PB, and M70s-M80s lower elevations of the Trans Pecos. If the mid-level trof/low is farther s then better/deeper mstr also will be farther s and thus higher SN amounts would be warranted across the SE NM/PB.
It is in the low to mid 60s in southwest Tennessee and north Mississippi. A trough digging in over the Desert southwest will move across the Plains towards the Mississippi and Tennessee River Valleys by Friday night. A cold front will drop into the Mid-South bringing some snow showers.