Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/issued 352 AM CDT Tue Jul 19 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): The persistent mid-level ridge of high pressure still sits across the Desert SW, with only a slight weakness aloft along the lower Texas coast.
623 AM EDT Tue Jul 19 2022 The quasistationary upper-level pattern continues with ridging in the west and troughing over the eastern US.
923 AM EDT Tue Jul 19 2022 Southerly flow will bring warmer air to the region for Tuesday into Wednesday.
1042 AM EDT Tue Jul 19 2022 A narrow 594 dm ridge extends west across Florida.
1018 AM EDT Tue Jul 19 2022 Weak ridging will build over the area today and hold through Wednesday.
Observations around the region have shown chilly temperatures in some of the higher valley locations. As of 3 am, temperatures were in the lower 40s in Polebridge, 38 degrees in Elk City, Idaho and 39 degrees on Georgetown Lake. Each day the temperatures will be a few degrees warmer this week.
729 AM EDT Tue Jul 19 2022 A ridge of high pressure will build east across the state during the day today, accompanied by mostly sunny and hot conditions with lower relative humidity and a light west to southwesterly breeze.
As the upper low moves from primarily along Hwy 2 redevelopment ahead of the forcing will occur late this morning or early afternoon with convection fueled by MUCAPE of 2000 to 3000J/kg and 40kts of bulk shear.
The low stratus still currently remains in place across much of east Kentucky, but this too is expected to improve going into the afternoon.
A 597dm high pressure center over eastern Arizona will continue to exert a strong influence across much of the Southern Plains as it expands in coverage.
A ridge will build into the area through Wednesday for dry, warm weather.
Ridge continues over Northern California and 850 mb temperatures do not show much change through Wednesday.
643 AM EDT Tue Jul 19 2022 Diffuse area of high pressure will maintain clear conditions this morning outside of some scattered high based clouds filtering in from northern lower Michigan. While temperatures will remain very warm with increasingly humid conditions, will back off on highs just a bit over the northern parts of the forecast area as timing of cold front (or at least pre-frontal trough) may support isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms fairly early in the day. Convective chances will then translate southeast through the area as low level convergence with the features support additional convective development within an increasingly unstable air mass as temperatures once again reach 90 or more over at least the southern half of the forecast with with dew point temperatures solidly into the lower 70s by this time.
Through the remainder of the week the center of the ridge of high pressure will be just south of the 4-corners area much of the time and extending west from southern CA to east Texas.
652 AM EDT Tue Jul 19 2022 Southerly flow will bring warmer air to the region for Tuesday into Wednesday.
520 AM MDT Tue Jul 19 2022 07z surface analysis had cold front from central ND to Hot Springs to central WY. Upper low depicted by water vapour spinning along the northeast MT/Canadian border.
415 AM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022 Dangerous heat will continue across the lower elevations of the central California interior today. Temperatures will gradually lower through the week but remain above normal with triple digit highs prevailing across the lower elevations. Strong high pressure continues over the Four Corners region and will maintain dangerous heat conditions across the interior of central California. High temperatures will change little today with widespread triple digit heat across the lower elevations.
Believe there will be a notable uptick in coverage, but with ridging influence increasing as the day wears on, don't believe that storms will be extremely widespread. North of the I-40 corridor, expect sparse coverage due to lower moisture levels and proximity to building ridge aloft. Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 73 92 75 93 / 50 40 40 40 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 72 91 75 91 / 30 20 40 50 40 Oak Ridge, TN 87 72 90 73 90 / 30 20 40 50 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 66 87 71 87 / 20 20 30 50 50.
Our area remains under the eastern limb of an expansive H5 ridge over the Southwest. Expansion of a strong low level thermal ridge over the central and southern Plains will result in high temps not seen in about a decade.
349 PM EDT Tue Jul 19 2022 Severe weather that produced large hail last night tappered off this morning in association with the warm front of an approaching low. As a cold front moves in from the west tonight, some hail and strong winds will again be possible. cooling aloft as the upper low approaches may be enough to fire some thunderstorms from the Arrowhead of MN into western Lake Superior. Upper low will move right across the U. Drier air moves in later in the day as ridging pushes east.
240 PM EDT Tue Jul 19 2022 High pressure will build across the region through Wednesday, to bring rain free and increasingly hot, humid weather.
An upper level low situated over the northern Great Lakes will bring warm air associated with a quasi stationary boundary down through the region. This and a mid to low level ridging through the western portion of the state will preclude any widespread convection. Latest HREF gives indication for the chance for scattered convection but that shouldn't occur until the passage of a cold front with a low level jet tonight into tomorrow. A large upper level low will move through the northern Great lakes through the week. This low will deepen and intensify as it moves eastward. The upper level low will drift east and northward and should merge with a larger low. The low levels of the atmosphere remain dry today. The low level moisture will be on the increase later tonight as a front approaches from the west.
241 PM EDT Tue Jul 19 2022 Weak upper ridging from the W Atlantic stretches across the FL Peninsula and into the Gulf as weak upper trough holds from the Mid Atlantic region into the Deep South through mid week. Late week and into the weekend upper ridging becomes most established aloft over the SE U. Weak high pressure to remain over the waters through the week with generally light winds and seas along with daily showers and thunderstorms.
While the front has only brought marginally cooler air which will mostly impact our overnight lows, the better relief comes in the form of lower dewpoints as they have dropped into the upper 40s and mid 50s. However, as vegetation greenness remains on the higher side have forgone any headlines at this time. After the inversion mixes out, breezy winds will remain in place as the low-level jet mixes out. Temperatures for Wednesday remain on the warmer side of normal, where areas along and west of the I-29 corridor will be in the lower to mid 90s, and areas east in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
242 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2022 Recent water vapor shows the upper high centered over western New Mexico with an impressive upper low in North Dakota. A modified cold front was approaching the northwestern CWA at 18Z though post- frontal temperatures were in the lower 90s to even around 100 in northwest Kansas. The cold front remains on track to pass through dry tonight with very warm and dry mid levels. Cloud cover should slowly diminish as the upper flow becomes more northwesterly behind the Northern Plains upper low, keeping the better high-level saturation to the southwest. Highs Wednesday still not much cooler than today but with drier air, heat indices should peak below 100. Have sided on the cooler side of guidance for lows tonight and Wednesday night with less cloud and light winds.
The upper low responsible is shifting through the Dakotas and latest analysis shows the surface pressure gradient and 850 mb winds decreasing. Therefore, we let the High Wind Warning expire at 2 pm. A low amplitude ridge aloft with basically zonal mid level flow will result in limited moisture the next couple of days.
Shallow cumulus are beginning to develop on the high terrain around the region.
416 PM EDT Tue Jul 19 2022 What started as a dreary morning with low clouds hanging overhead has turned into a fairly pleasant afternoon now that the low clouds have begun to scatter. With a little more sunshine peeking through, temperatures across east Kentucky have warmed up to the low to mid 80s. Aloft, east Kentucky lies just on the west side of a trough slowly moving east over the Appalachians and Mid- Atlantic. They depict the trough to our east continuing to push towards the Atlantic coast.
Warming and dry conditions today and Wednesday as high pressure builds over the Pacific Northwest.
As the warm front of an approaching low continues to move into the area early this morning, expect shower and thunderstorm activity to dwindle, as convective debris and a strengthening cap near the sfc with time should limit convective development. cooling aloft as the upper low approaches may be enough to fire some thunderstorms from the Arrowhead of MN into western Lake Superior. Upper low will move right across the U. Drier air moves in later in the day as ridging pushes east.
234 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2022 As the upper level trough tracks across North Dakota and progresses east this evening into tomorrow, temperatures are expected to stay in the 90's across the region on Wednesday. The upper level ridge builds back into the region as the high pressure positions itself over the Four Corners bringing hot and dry conditions back into the forecast.
251 PM MDT Tue Jul 19 2022 Clear skies and near to slightly above average temperatures are expected over the coming days as upper level high pressure remains overhead. Clear skies, generally light winds, and near to slightly above average temperatures are expected through the remainder of the work week as we remain on the northern edge of an upper level ridge.
Yesterday's cool upper low to our north has moved rapidly east and was already in North Dakota this morning.
115 PM EDT Tue Jul 19 2022 Southerly flow will bring warmer air to the region for Tuesday into Wednesday.
354 PM EDT Tue Jul 19 2022 A mid-level trough will drift east over the area the next few days, maintaining afternoon storm chances.
Lows across southern Missouri will only cool into the upper 70s to the lower 80s tonight.
This casts even further doubt on whether we will see convective initiation along a cold front progged to sweep through later this afternoon/evening. Forecast profiles from the HRRR/RAP depict a narrow corridor of 1500-2500 J/kg SBCAPE developing just ahead of the cold front, the narrow nature of the instability field driven by ample mixing and the stout cap ahead of the front. Effective shear profiles do improve with a 40-60-kt mid/upper jet wrapping around the upper- level closed low, but either linear or veer/backed hodographs along with the nature of the frontal forcing should result in a quick upscale growth to a multi-cell line mode.
1112 AM MDT Tue Jul 19 2022 07z surface analysis had cold front from central ND to Hot Springs to central WY. Upper low depicted by water vapour spinning along the northeast MT/Canadian border.
Believe there will be a notable uptick in coverage, but with ridging influence increasing as the day wears on, don't believe that storms will be extremely widespread. North of the I-40 corridor, expect sparse coverage due to lower moisture levels and proximity to building ridge aloft. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 92 75 93 72 / 40 40 40 50 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 91 75 91 71 / 20 40 50 40 20 Oak Ridge, TN 72 90 73 90 70 / 20 40 50 40 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 87 71 87 67 / 20 30 50 50 10.
228 PM MDT Tue Jul 19 2022 Latest analysis shows the center of the low pressure system is now located over eastern North Dakota, producing a tight surface pressure gradient over the forecast area. The winds will decrease early this evening as diurnal heating subsides and the low pressure system continues to move eastward and away from the area. The upper ridge will rebound over the area on Wednesday, and high temperatures will warm into the upper 80s to mid-90s.
257 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2022 Latest deterministic and ensemble model guidance keeps upper level ridge axis to our west with trough to our east in the short term. This will drag an associated cold front through the forecast area. Then latest NAM, GFS and RAP forecast soundings are still indicating decent mixing to at least 850mb across central Missouri, as well as the Ozarks during the afternoon hours, so expect the higher dewpoints in this area will lower into the low to mid 60s. The highest heat index values will be over Reynolds, Iron and Madison counties topping out between 105 and 109 degrees. Then on back side of the cold front, lows Wednesday night will be near normal in the mid 60s to low 70s.
136 PM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022 Dangerous heat will continue across the lower elevations of the central California interior through Wednesday. Temperatures will gradually lower through the 7-day forecast period, but will remain above normal with triple digit highs prevailing across the lower elevations.
308 PM EDT Tue Jul 19 2022 Tonight, an upper high will remain over the Four Corners region while a stacked low system begins sliding eastward towards the Great Lakes. The upper trough around the aforementioned system will push upper ridging from west to east over the Ohio Valley. Lows in most areas will only drop to the low to mid 70s. Tomorrow, a trailing cold front, from the system over the Great Lakes, will approach the CWA from the northwest. At the very end of the period, around 00z, the cold front is expected to initiate showers and thunderstorms across southern Indiana.
In addition the southeastern US will be in the base of a 500mb trough, with waves moving through this upper pattern. For this afternoon and evening, the combination of diurnal heating, and additional instability under upper trough, will provide for scattered to numerous coverage of convection.
Overnight temperatures for tonight will fall into the low to mid 70s offering minor relief from the heat before temperatures climb back up again tomorrow morning. High temperatures on Wednesday will range in the low to mid 90s with heat indices in excess of 105 degrees across the area, with areas exceeding heat indices of 110 degrees along and west of I-55 and north of I-20.
Today through Wednesday night: Ridging will continue to dominate the PacNW through this period.
(This evening through Wednesday) Afternoon water vapor imagery shows the expansive 596 dm upper level ridge spinning over the Desert Southwest, with its eastern edge extending into west Texas. For Wednesday the low level thermal ridge weakens slightly so temperatures may be slightly 'cooler'.
1006 AM CDT Tue Jul 19 2022 As a 40-45kt LLJ rounds the base of the upper low across our south this afternoon peak mixing should allow for higher gusts to 45 mph at times across the southern part of our CWA. As the upper low moves from primarily along Hwy 2 redevelopment ahead of the forcing will occur late this morning or early afternoon with convection fueled by MUCAPE of 2000 to 3000J/kg and 40kts of bulk shear.
235 PM EDT Tue Jul 19 2022 High pressure centered to the east of Bermuda reaches west- southwest across Florida. Temperatures are in the lower 90s with dewpoints in the mid 70s. Mean layer ridging will remain established across the western North Atlantic, and at times, across the Gulf of Mexico.
Lows tonight will be quite muggy in mid to upper 70s, lower 70s Cumberland Plateau Region as upper level ridging influences to our west try to nudge eastward. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will become more prevalent on Wednesday night as a summertime cold front pushes into our area and above mentioned northwesterly flow aloft continues.
As of 2 pm, temperatures were in the mid to upper 80s, with head indices in the low 90s. This unseasonably strong low will shift eastward across Lake Superior Wednesday morning, while driving a cold front eastward across our area. Otherwise, southwest winds are expected to become increasingly breezy this evening (gusts of 25 to 30 mph) as the surface gradient strengthens in advance of the approaching frontal trough. Winds remain breezy on Wednesday, but will turn westerly following the morning cold frontal passage. Temperatures will not be all that much cooler in its wake, but gusty winds up to 30 to 35 mph are expected during the afternoon.
406 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2022 Key Points: * "Cooler" conditions mid-week.
545 PM EDT Tue Jul 19 2022 High pressure will build across the region through Wednesday, to bring rain free and increasingly hot, humid weather.
From synopsis, High pressure centered to the east of Bermuda extends west southwestward across Florida.
920 PM EDT Tue Jul 19 2022 A weak ridge of high pressure will hold for another day on Wednesday.
522 PM MDT Tue Jul 19 2022 Latest analysis shows the center of the low pressure system is now located over eastern North Dakota, producing a tight surface pressure gradient over the forecast area. The winds will decrease early this evening as diurnal heating subsides and the low pressure system continues to move eastward and away from the area. The upper ridge will rebound over the area on Wednesday, and high temperatures will warm into the upper 80s to mid-90s.
Tonight, an upper high will remain over the Four Corners region while a stacked low system begins sliding eastward towards the Great Lakes. The upper trough around the aforementioned system will push upper ridging from west to east over the Ohio Valley. Lows in most areas will only drop to the low to mid 70s. Tomorrow, a trailing cold front, from the system over the Great Lakes, will approach the CWA from the northwest. At the very end of the period, around 00z, the cold front is expected to initiate showers and thunderstorms across southern Indiana.
Tomorrow appears like a similar day that favors areas east and south of Tucson, although 500mb flow starts to shift a bit more northeasterly as the high repositions. This could help propagate of the higher terrain and sustain later into the evening hours. As we transition toward the weekend, the ridge weakens and shifts to our east allowing temperatures to trend back down.
Clear skies and near to slightly above average temperatures are expected over the coming days as upper level high pressure remains overhead. Clear skies, generally light winds, and near to slightly above average temperatures are expected through the remainder of the work week as we remain on the northern edge of an upper level ridge.
908 PM EDT Tue Jul 19 2022 High pressure will build across the region through Wednesday, bringing rain free and increasingly hot, humid weather.
Dangerous heat will continue across the lower elevations of the central California interior through Wednesday. Temperatures will gradually lower through the 7-day forecast period, but will remain above normal with triple digit highs prevailing across the lower elevations.
621 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2022 Latest deterministic and ensemble model guidance keeps upper level ridge axis to our west with trough to our east in the short term. This will drag an associated cold front through the forecast area. Then latest NAM, GFS and RAP forecast soundings are still indicating decent mixing to at least 850mb across central Missouri, as well as the Ozarks during the afternoon hours, so expect the higher dewpoints in this area will lower into the low to mid 60s. The highest heat index values will be over Reynolds, Iron and Madison counties topping out between 105 and 109 degrees. Then on back side of the cold front, lows Wednesday night will be near normal in the mid 60s to low 70s.
As of 2 pm, temperatures were in the mid to upper 80s, with heat indices in the low 90s. This unseasonably strong low will shift eastward across Lake Superior Wednesday morning, while driving a cold front eastward across our area. Otherwise, southwest winds are expected to become increasingly breezy this evening (gusts of 25 to 30 mph) as the surface gradient strengthens in advance of the approaching frontal trough. Winds remain breezy on Wednesday, but will turn westerly following the morning cold frontal passage. Temperatures will not be all that much cooler in its wake, but gusty winds up to 30 to 35 mph are expected during the afternoon.
Warm and dry conditions today and Wednesday as high pressure builds over the Pacific Northwest.
739 PM EDT Tue Jul 19 2022 A mid-level trough will drift east over the area the next few days, maintaining afternoon storm chances.
Weak upper ridging from the W Atlantic stretches across the FL Peninsula and into the Gulf as weak upper trough holds from the Mid Atlantic region into the Deep South through mid week. Late week and into the weekend upper ridging becomes most established aloft over the SE U. Weak high pressure to remain over the waters through the week with generally light winds and seas along with daily showers and thunderstorms.
838 PM MDT Tue Jul 19 2022 Clear skies and near to slightly above average temperatures are expected over the coming days as upper level high pressure remains overhead. -Webb 535 PM MDT Tue Jul 19 2022 (19/00Z TAF period) A dry WNW flow over a ridge of high pressure will maintain mainly clear skies and primarily VFR conditions into Wednesday. /ISSUED 535 PM MDT Tue Jul 19 2022/ Clear skies, generally light winds, and near to slightly above average temperatures are expected through the remainder of the work week as we remain on the northern edge of an upper level ridge.
643 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2022 As the upper level trough tracks across North Dakota and progresses east this evening into tomorrow, temperatures are expected to stay in the 90's across the region on Wednesday. The upper level ridge builds back into the region as the high pressure positions itself over the Four Corners bringing hot and dry conditions back into the forecast.
1025 PM EDT Tue Jul 19 2022 A mid-level trough will drift east over the area the next few days, maintaining afternoon storm chances.
Recent water vapor shows the upper high centered over western New Mexico with an impressive upper low in North Dakota. A modified cold front was approaching the northwestern CWA at 18Z though post- frontal temperatures were in the lower 90s to even around 100 in northwest Kansas. The cold front remains on track to pass through dry tonight with very warm and dry mid levels. Cloud cover should slowly diminish as the upper flow becomes more northwesterly behind the Northern Plains upper low, keeping the better high-level saturation to the southwest. Highs Wednesday still not much cooler than today but with drier air, heat indices should peak below 100. Have sided on the cooler side of guidance for lows tonight and Wednesday night with less cloud and light winds.
828 PM EDT Tue Jul 19 2022 High pressure will build across the region through Wednesday, bringing rain free and increasingly hot, humid weather.
Light winds have resulted in temperatures falling off quickly in some of the normally cooler locations, and have adjusted overnight lows in some places to better fit current trends.
544 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2022 (This evening through Wednesday) Afternoon water vapor imagery shows the expansive 596 dm upper level ridge spinning over the Desert Southwest, with its eastern edge extending into west Texas. For Wednesday the low level thermal ridge weakens slightly so temperatures may be slightly 'cooler'.
635 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2022 Key Points: * "Cooler" conditions mid-week.
722 PM EDT Tue Jul 19 2022 Severe weather that produced large hail last night tappered off this morning in association with the warm front of an approaching low. As a cold front moves in from the west tonight, some hail and strong winds will again be possible. cooling aloft as the upper low approaches may be enough to fire some thunderstorms from the Arrowhead of MN into western Lake Superior. Upper low will move right across the U. Drier air moves in later in the day as ridging pushes east.