Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Although overall support for lift remains meager, upper troughing and less capping aloft as compared to yesterday will promote a slight uptick in precipitation coverage. Like the high temperatures today, overnight lows will be slightly warmer. On Tuesday, the ridge axis in place across the northern Plains begins to reorient itself more towards the upper Mississippi Valley. This will set up a troughing pattern over the northeast CONUS, and and upper-level northwest flow pattern over us.
A Cold Front Tonight. The main concern is the cold front moving through tonight, with the chance of thunderstorms. Cooler for most with a chance of rain for some. Tuesday will see the tail end of a cold front associated with a low pressure system over western Quebec sweeping through the forecast area. Precipitation chances diminish after sunset and high pressure accompanied by drier air take hold once again.
The weather pattern will remain favorable for daily showers and thunderstorms as high pressure aloft becomes established over the Four Corners region.
Despite the high humidity, precipitable water is declining and 500 mb temperatures are gradually warming, leading to poor instability (CAPE near 500 J/kg and lifted index near -2). Strong subtropical anticyclone will remain just to our west, from northwest Colorado at 7 pm Monday to a center over southwest Colorado at 7 pm Tuesday. The good news is models show little if any warming Tuesday, with the core of the ridge still well removed to the west.
The high pressure area remains over the Rockies with the apex of the upper ridge extending into Canada today. This upper ridge flattens and extends eastward from the central Rockies over the central Plains states by late Tuesday as a short wave trough tops the apex of the upper ridge over eastern Montana and western North Dakota. High pressure remains at the surface over the Plains states with a lee trough beginning to deepen along the front range from Montana to New Mexico as the upper ridge flattens.
321 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 (Issued 320 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021) Tonight through Tuesday Night: Patchy fog is possible in river valleys and the usual low spots again tonight with high pressure and clear skies overhead. Dewpoints will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s and low temps will be just a little warmer than the past couple of nights due to those higher dewpoints. Look for increasing westerly winds Tuesday morning with return flow around high pressure over Iowa. Weak low pressure sliding into lower Michigan on Tuesday will drag a cold front southwestward through Wisconsin.
Upper-level ridge will remain in place near the Rockies on Tuesday, with a large trough of low pressure off the Canadian British Columbia coastline on Tuesday. Upper trough axis that has extended into our area yesterday will begin to push to the south and east. Tuesday will feature "cooler" temperatures again, with afternoon highs generally ranging from the mid to upper 80s. There is some chance that portions of our far southern areas where convection and significant cloud cover is expected could only see highs in the lower 80s on Tuesday.
126 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 A mid and upper level trough extending from Southern Quebec Canada into Eastern PA will create a northwesterly flow of dry but much warmer air today and Tuesday. This trough is forecast to linger over the area for much of the week, bringing a much drier week and less humidity then previous weeks. Upper level troughing over Pa, combined with diurnal heating, should result in increasing cumulus by this afternoon, along with the chance of a shower or thunderstorm in spots, mainly over the central and northern counties. Mixing down model 850mb temps of 15-16C translates to expected highs ranging from the upper 70s over the northern mountains, to the mid to upper 80s across the Lower Susq Valley.
247 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 Currently aloft, a broad trough is positioned over the eastern U.
743 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 High pressure extending into the region will be reinforced during the middle of the week keeping mainly dry conditions.
1031 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 High pressure remains in control through Tuesday.
A slow moving cold front will be moving through the Northland this afternoon. The upper Midwest will be right between an upper level ridge to the southwest and an upper level trough to the northeast for the majority of the week. There are slight chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight as a cold front slowly moves south, but is unlikely near the stable air over the lake. More concerning is after the passage of the cold front, winds will turn to the northeast and gusts will increase along the South Shore and at the head of the lake.
Upper level troughing over New England in place through the early part of the week with a massive ridge sitting over the western third of the country.
Dry weather is expected to continue through the short term period as a strong ridge remains locked in place across the Intermountain West with a series of weak troughs expected to pass through the Northeastern States over the next couple of days. Lows will drop into the low to mid 60s. A non-zero threat for precipitation is also expected late tomorrow night with the potential for a cluster of storms to ride the ridge during the overnight hours with initiation in the Dakotas.
The upper ridge present in proximity of the area over past days will become nudged to a position over the Bahamas to S FL early through midweek. Broad upr ridge wl exert some influence back Nwd across the peninsula into late week. For the rest of the waters, isolated showers are possible later tonight as the ridge sits over the local waters, keeping a general south flow through the night.
834 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 A mid and upper level trough extending from Southern Quebec Canada into Eastern PA will create a northwesterly flow of dry but much warmer air today and Tuesday. This trough is forecast to linger over the area for much of the week, bringing a much drier week and less humidity then previous weeks.
925 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 9PM Update Showers and thunderstorms across the Mid-South with the upper level low spinning over us. Temperatures will gradually inch back to near normal by the end of the week Toward the weekend the strong upper level high over the Mountain West slowly moves east, thus resulting in more normal July heat and humidity. Far less coverage is expected tomorrow as a weak cold front moves into central portions of Mississippi and Alabama.
559 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 A mid and upper level trough extending from Southern Quebec Canada into Eastern PA will create a northwesterly flow of dry but much warmer air today and Tuesday. This trough is forecast to linger over the area for much of the week, bringing a much drier week and less humidity then previous weeks.
A slow-moving surface boundary is stretched across Middle Tennessee this afternoon with an upper trough following closely behind. Also, look for cooler temperatures the next couple of days as the post- frontal air mass sinks deeper into Middle Tennessee.
Overnight lows are already near overnight lows which will be in the low 70s across the area. Upper level trough continues over the eastern states.
A slow moving cold front will be moving through the Northland this afternoon. The upper Midwest will be right between an upper level ridge to the southwest and an upper level trough to the northeast for the majority of the week. Because of this, showers and thunderstorms are not expected to reach HYR, but could still redevelop on the South Shore later today as the cold front moves south. There are slight chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight as a cold front slowly moves south, but is unlikely near the stable air over the lake. More concerning is after the passage of the cold front, winds will turn to the northeast and gusts will increase along the South Shore and at the head of the lake.
Hennig (This afternoon through Tuesday night) An upper ridge is over the Rocky Mountains with West Texas and Southeast New Mexico on the backside of the ridge. The upper ridge will be centered over the Four Corners Region on Tuesday and will extend into the central and northern Plains.
Upper low will continue moving southeast this evening and overnight, circling its way around the mid state. If the upper low is a bit closer to the area overnight, precip chances could push further north, and this is also true after sunrise tomorrow morning.
Temperatures will gradually inch back to near normal by the end of the week Toward the weekend the strong upper level high over the Mountain West slowly moves east, thus resulting in more normal July heat and humidity. Far less coverage is expected tomorrow as a weak cold front moves into central portions of Mississippi and Alabama.
953 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 High pressure extending into the region will be reinforced during the middle of the week keeping mainly dry conditions.
Overnight lows will not fall much, dropping into the low 70s across the area. Upper level trough continues over the eastern states.
1021 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 The area will remain between Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough through the weekend. Aloft, the region will remain to the east of a positively tilted mid-level trough while a ridge is positioned well to the east.
626 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 (This evening through Tuesday) A weak cold front is currently moving through the Concho Valley and Heartland. An upper level low is forecast to be centered across the Mississippi Valley, with this feature nosing into East Texas, on Tuesday. Meanwhile the aforementioned cold front will be well south of the area, across South Texas. (Tuesday night through next Monday) While the upper-level ridge will remain the dominant feature out west, a portion of a positively tilted trough over the Northeast US will break off and drift towards the western Gulf Coast.
1032 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 Currently - Surface through lower level ridging extends westward across Central Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. A fairly sharp ridge aloft extend northeastwards across the Gulf of Mexico and through northern Florida. Short Term Update - The surface through lower level ridge will shift further southward into South Florida overnight. A ridge across Central Florida will settle southwards into South Florida overnight.
CAP is present farther east in the cooler airmass from earlier storms thru the RRV. Further to the northwest, embedded in the ridge aloft another ridge rider is beginning to develop some storms over SW Sask. A continuation of weak ridge riders continues on Tuesday with more widely scattered storms possible, however with the lack of a clear boundary at the surface the chances for severe are lower than today. The lower humidities during this time will keep heat indices down, obviating the need for potential heat headlines.
309 PM MDT Mon Jul 19 2021 Upper ridge axis extends over central MT-WY with clouds moving upward on west side, but not coming down the east side, leaving clear skies over the forecast area, although light smoke is moving across the area. Lee trof has deepened over eastern MT with gusty southeast winds over northeastern WY and extreme northwestern SD. Thermal ridge remains over the area Tuesday before a surface trof moves through. Southeast winds will increase over the SD plains as pressure gradient tightens ahead of the trof.
959 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 A dome of high pressure parked over the Desert Southwest will keep our upper level pattern a bit unsettled but seasonable for the week ahead, with occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms and temperatures oscillating right around average.
Like the high temperatures today, overnight lows will be slightly warmer. On Tuesday, the ridge axis in place across the northern Plains begins to reorient itself more towards the upper Mississippi Valley. This will set up a troughing pattern over the northeast CONUS, and and upper-level northwest flow pattern over us.
A backdoor cold front stretches across central Superior, passing north of the Sault. A Cold Front Tonight. The main concern is the cold front moving through tonight, with the chance of thunderstorms. Cooler for most with a chance of rain for some. Tuesday will see the tail end of a cold front associated with a low pressure system over western Quebec sweeping through the forecast area. Precipitation chances diminish after sunset and high pressure accompanied by drier air take hold once again.
1041 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 A dome of high pressure parked over the Desert Southwest will keep our upper level pattern a bit unsettled but seasonable for the week ahead, with occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms and temperatures oscillating right around average.
839 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 High pressure remains in control through Tuesday.
Most unstable area is situated just west of I-45 & south of I-10 where pcldy skies and warmer temps are situated.
948 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 Animation of water vapor imagery this evening indicates the mid/upper level trough translating southward into central Arkansas. This activity has already trended down this evening, with the exception of the convection in west central Arkansas through central Arkansas, which is being supported by the aforementioned trough. /Issued 216 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021/ Upper ridge to our west continues to amplify, with deep northerly flow effectively pushing the moisture axis south of the Red River. Wave will continue to dive south and west over the next few days with ridge expanding across the area.
638 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 Currently aloft, a broad trough is positioned over the eastern U.
The high pressure that has been nudging into CA this weekend has begun shrinking to our east today as the upper trough off of the coast is shifting slightly closer to Northern CA. Another wave along the high is moving through Northern CA today, bringing another wave of instability and moisture into the area. The high pressure will continue to shrink to our east tomorrow with the weak trough remaining just off the coast.
A sprawling warm high pressure system is centered over Iowa today, with light winds, scattered cumulus, and temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. I've noted the models showing the pop up showers, also have dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s, which is possible for July, but it's not what we're observing currently. Thus, I've gone dry through Tuesday, and stayed with a middle of the road temperature forecast, banking on mean guidance handling the high pressure quite well. The over all synoptic pattern of a western upper high and eastern trof will not change much in the coming days, but in it's persistence, this pattern will spread increasing heat eastward, through the Cornbelt.
Expect scattered thunderstorm development in this area soon starting in the high terrain.
652 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 A very wet, messy weather pattern will continue to unfold across the region through the short term, as we remain under the influence of a nearby upper level low and associated surface boundary.
/Issued 216 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021/ Upper ridge to our west continues to amplify, with deep northerly flow effectively pushing the moisture axis south of the Red River. Wave will continue to dive south and west over the next few days with ridge expanding across the area.
These have allowed temperatures to drop off into the lower to middle 70s while dewpoints have climbed to the middle to upper 60s. Otherwise no big changes to the forecast, with lows in the low to mid 60s expected. Dry weather is expected to continue through the short term period as a strong ridge remains locked in place across the Intermountain West with a series of weak troughs expected to pass through the Northeastern States over the next couple of days. Lows will drop into the low to mid 60s. A non-zero threat for precipitation is also expected late tomorrow night with the potential for a cluster of storms to ride the ridge during the overnight hours with initiation in the Dakotas.
Although strong storm potential tonight has passed, rain chances will continue overnight, especially for areas across the Suwannee River Valley and SE GA as elongated PVA streams over the area from the west as an upper level trough deepens across the lower MS River Valley. The low level WSW flow will advect low level instabilty inland from Apalachee Bay tonight. The deepening upper trough upstream of our area will shift the stronger lift/PVA northward through the night and into Tue, with ridging across south FL building northward across our NE FL zones west of I-75 through sunrise. Drier mid/upper air and weaker winds under the strengthening ridge across central FL favors some shallow ground fog toward sunrise, especially where heavy rainfall fell today.
Little change to the pattern across the CONUS this afternoon with the mid-level ridge remaining in place across the Intermountain West with a trough axis extending from the northeast US into southern Missouri and northern Arkansas. Dry conditions are expected for the majority of the forecast period with the western ridge building over the central Plains by mid-week.
An upstream trough will keep temperatures mild for the next few days before ridging returns and increases temperatures later in the week. Otherwise, the upstream trough over the Gulf of Alaska will keep temperatures mild until the intermountain west-high pressure system shifts back over the area. This will rebound high temperatures later in the week and aid in warmer inland valley heat.
936 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 (Issued 936 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021) Clear skies and light winds will persist overnight tonight as high pressure continue to move through Iowa. Patterson (Issued 320 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021) Tonight through Tuesday Night: Patchy fog is possible in river valleys and the usual low spots again tonight with high pressure and clear skies overhead. Dewpoints will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s and low temps will be just a little warmer than the past couple of nights due to those higher dewpoints. Look for increasing westerly winds Tuesday morning with return flow around high pressure over Iowa. Weak low pressure sliding into lower Michigan on Tuesday will drag a cold front southwestward through Wisconsin.
454 PM MDT Mon Jul 19 2021 Upper ridge axis extends over central MT-WY with clouds moving upward on west side, but not coming down the east side, leaving clear skies over the forecast area, although light smoke is moving across the area. Lee trof has deepened over eastern MT with gusty southeast winds over northeastern WY and extreme northwestern SD. Thermal ridge remains over the area Tuesday before a surface trof moves through. Southeast winds will increase over the SD plains as pressure gradient tightens ahead of the trof.
745 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 The area will remain between Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough through the weekend. Aloft, the region will remain to the east of a positively tilted mid-level trough while a ridge is positioned well to the east.
34um satellite imagery, you can clearly see how dry the lower layers of our atmosphere is indicated by the orange and darker reds. This dominate high pressure system is in full effect across our CWA. Tuesday night temperatures across the region will trend in the lower to mid 60s. Hot conditions will persist through the end of the week as broad & flat upper-level ridging remains in control across the western and central US.
Models show the upper ridge center shift from the northwestern Colorado at 00Z this late afternoon to the Four Corners by 00Z late Tuesday afternoon. The strong upper level ridge of high pressure will wobble over the Rocky Mountain Region over the next several days. This wobble will result in daily fluctuations in the plume of monsoonal moisture circulating around the high. Overall the trend is for increasing monsoonal moisture across the forecast area through the period which should translate to a better chance for shower and thunderstorm activity, especially over the high country.
Northeast surface winds were starting to usher in slightly cooler and drier air, with many locations in the lower 80s, with dew points in the middle to upper 60s. High pressure builds down into the area for Tuesday with less cloud cover expected.
Highs in the low to mid 90s are expected with plenty of sunshine as an upper level ridge remains entrenched over the region, with a few small chances for precipitation riding the ridge likely remaining north of our coverage area.
Satellite imagery shows deeper moisture and elevated instability lifting out of the region as flow aloft turns more southwesterly ahead of the trough off the BC coast. Clearing skies and the return of a moderately strong Delta Breeze is resulting in cooler temperatures across much of the area compared to 24 hours ago.
Tonight Through Wednesday An upper level ridge will remain entrenched over the western US, and a broad and weak trof will remain skewed across the region from the Atlantic thru eastern Texas. At the surface, a slow-moving cold front was just barely continuing to sink southward near the AR/LA border region. With the front across the area and the weak trof aloft, chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast, with the highest rain chances across the southeast portion of the area.
Vertical ascent from an upper trough centered over Eastern Arkansas continues to produce scattered convection on both sides of the frontal boundary in Deep East Texas, Northeast Texas, and Central Arkansas.
On Wednesday, the headline-making 500 mb ridge that has been stationary over the Western states this summer will nose eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley.
234 AM CDT Tue Jul 20 2021 A weak surface frontal boundary/trough was draped across the UP of Michigan through northern MN. The afternoon hours contains the highest potential for precipitation with strongest mid-level vorticity advection and low- level moisture advection during this time.
The dry forecast for the rest of the week has remained intact with upper level ridging gradually building over the area.
The airmass is stabilizing with cooler air at the surface and subsidence increasing with an approaching upper low from South Texas so convective should diminish both today and tomorrow. It may not be completely eliminated but should be more confined to the higher elevations west of the Pecos River.
(Today and tonight) Subsidence behind the departing upper-level trough will generally stifle convective development today. On the smaller scale, though, ripples in the flow aloft, plus the high moisture content of the lower atmosphere may successfully crank out a few (light) showers mainly over the southern half of Oklahoma and northern Texas. Relatively cool (for summer in the southern Plains) conditions will start to give way to more typical readings, as a warm-up begins today under an expanding upper-level ridge to our northwest.
Much of the area should be dry this week, but a few isolated showers are possible on Wednesday as a weak cold front moves in from the northeast. Much of the work week looks to be dry as upper level ridging remains in control over the Great Plains. A backdoor cold front is progged to drop into the region from the northeast on Wednesday, keeping high temps north of I-74 slightly cooler than Tuesday. However, this forcing will be competing against subsidence associated with broad high pressure across the Midwest.
High pressure will build into the region Tuesday. Another cold front will cross the area late Wednesday. Cooler than recent nites with lows in the mid-upr 60s except near 70 sern most and beach zones. A cold front will be approaching the area from the north late Wednesday. Ahead of the cold front on Wednesday, it will be mostly sunny with highs 88-93 degrees.