Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Our moist air mass will keep overnight temperatures in the low to mid 60s with narrow dew point depressions. We'll remain under the influence of an upper-level ridge of high pressure for one more day which will maintain our deep southerly flow and this relatively warm/humid air mass. The end result will be yet another warm day as temperatures climb back into the low to mid 80s by the afternoon. Things will begin to change on Friday as an upper-level trough over the Great Basin will finally become dislodged and shift eastward across the Southern Plains and into the lower Mississippi Valley. A strong cold front will push through the area late in the day on Friday and into the evening and overnight hours.
Overnight, a weak mid level wave swings through the base of the trough overhead. Much of the same for Friday as upper level trough axis remains overhead.
Dry elsewhere as high pressure builds into southern Minnesota. A long wave trof moves over the region Friday and Friday night.
1234 AM EDT Thu Oct 14 2021 A large area of high pressure will linger through the work week.
1202 AM EDT Thu Oct 14 2021 A large area of high pressure will linger through the work week.
The strong cyclone had an impressive pressure gradient across the Plains and into the local area with some local wind gusts topping 45 mph. The front should reach the Mississippi River by 00Z with the cold front exiting the region by 06Z. Due to the lack of instability and despite the high shear, severe weather threat remains low. With the cold front, surface dewpoints in the 50s and 60s will drop through the 40s with 30s dewpoints moving in Thursday morning. Look for clearing with the cold front. Subsidence underneath the ridge axis will provide dry weather and mostly sunny skies across the forecast area. Cooler temperatures will advect into the forecast area.
Latest GOES water vapor imagery depicts a very broad trough across the western U. The cold front that will eventually track through the area on Friday is currently situated across western Illinois and central Missouri. Rain chances will start to increase and spread across the area overnight as the main upper trough continues east. Hi-res guidance does indicate a lull in the coverage of activity on Friday morning with things picking back up along and ahead of the cold front later Friday afternoon.
esp from se MO northeast along the lower OH River Valley. Much cooler and drier air will rush in on the heals of the front overnight.
(Today and tonight) A longwave mid-level trough will make its way into the Southern Plains later this afternoon. A cold front is forecasted to move through the area later in the night, and thunderstorms are possible along this boundary. Forecast soundings suggest that any storm development will be elevated, as there should be some convective inhibition in the lowest levels.
Moisture advection will continue to bring in some high level cirrus which could be enough to keep fog mostly confined to river valleys and near lakes late tonight, as well as keep lows elevated in the low/mid 60's. Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 63 84 59 67 / 0 0 10 80 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 64 83 59 66 / 0 0 10 90 70 Oak Ridge, TN 83 64 82 58 65 / 0 0 10 90 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 62 82 59 65 / 0 10 10 70 60.
233 AM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021 Dynamic mid level low has moved off into Canada this am, but more troffing aloft is expected to advect across the forecast area through Friday. Overnight lows will be near to a little above freezing. Overall, despite the passage of a trof aloft and some forecast cloudiness, it will be dry through Friday.
The showers will dissipate overnight, leaving dry weather for the remainder of the short term period as the longwave trof moves east. Ridging will start pushing in from the west on Friday, and a good 10 degree push in temperatures will rebound highs into the mid 50's to mid 60's.
958 PM PDT Wed Oct 13 2021 A slow moving cold front will bring a mix of light rain and snow across the Inland Northwest today. Models paint the highest risk over the sheltered NE WA mountain valleys. Otherwise some showers are possible, but the higher confidence lays in the mountain zones.
Cold front continues to slowly exit the area this morning, with persistent cloud cover to continue into the morning. This dense cloud cover has helped to keep temperatures at bay through much of the area, with most still in the low to mid 60s. Winds have since died down to around 5-10 mph throughout the area, with dewpoints quickly dropping behind the cold front. Friday An upper trough will dig into the Plains and Midwest late this week leading to seasonably cool weather for a change.
Low temperatures overnight are forecast to range from the low 60s across inland SE GA to near 70 right along the coast. High pressure will continue to hold over the region leading to mostly dry conditions.
This will bring a warm front to roughly the I-70 corridor, with some rain likely along and south of the I-70 corridor, with some off and on showers north of I-70 later today, going into tonight. A more potent cold front then pushes through the area Thursday night going into Friday, which will effectively end all chances for rain area-wide going into Friday morning. With a much cooler air mass coming in for Friday, expect daytime highs to struggle to reach 60 degrees.
Another cold night is in store with widespread freezing temperatures across northern, central, and western NM. West winds are expected to prevent freezing temperatures over the eastern plains. A weak storm system moving over Colorado Thursday will brush the high terrain of northern NM with very light snow through Thursday night.
Continued warm and dry through the short term period, with some late night/early morning fog Discussion: The upper ridge axis over the Appalachians will shift slowly east during the short term period as a trough begins to move into the Plains. Meanwhile, broad high pressure will remain over the region at the surface.
Upper level ridge generally remains dominant over our forecast area through the near term period, but the ridge axis will gradually be shifting from almost directly over our area more to the southeast of our area through Friday. Lows Thursday night should range from mid to upper 60s over inland areas to the low to mid 70s near and along the immediate coast.
340 AM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021 Cold front continues to slowly exit the area this morning, with persistent cloud cover to continue into the morning. This dense cloud cover has helped to keep temperatures at bay through much of the area, with most still in the low to mid 60s. Winds have since died down to around 5-10 mph throughout the area, with dewpoints quickly dropping behind the cold front. Friday An upper trough will dig into the Plains and Midwest late this week leading to seasonably cool weather for a change.
1124 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021 The High Wind Warning in effect across much of wrn Nebraska will continue in effect until 6 pm CDT. In the wake of the powerful fall cyclone moving through the nrn High Plains this afternoon, Pacific high pressure will build into the central Rockies and strengthen to 1030-35 mb by Friday morning. This should set the stage for widespread freezing temperatures across wrn and ncntl Nebraska Thursday and Friday mornings. This forecast is cooler than the previous forecast but still modest and near the 50th percentile of the national model blend. This could disrupt the radiative cooling process and prevent cooler lows than forecast.
Temperatures will feel cool, but they will still be slightly warmer than normal. Expecting MVFR to overtake the region overnight as clouds from a large area of low pressure moving into Canada rotate around the low. Winds will increase over the lake today and turn more southwesterly as a large area of low pressure exits, but by late this evening they will begin to decrease.
(Today through Friday afternoon) The upper low that brought the wind to the region has moved into Canada but a broad trough remains across the Western US this morning. This trough axis will move east today and tonight crossing the Rockies and moving onto the plains Friday. As it does High pressure will build in behind it. Will have a return to warmer temperatures today as the wind swings around to the W and more sunshine expected. However a cold front early friday will knock temps back down with highs ranging from the 60s north.
Meanwhile local temperatures were mostly in the low to mid 40s. However with temps still mostly in the lower 40s, confidence in the Advisory is falling. This trough may also induce a few light showers Thursday night, though the bulk of the rain will be focused to our south and east over Missouri and Illinois. The Weekend: Good alignment amongst the ensembles (GEFS, EPS & CMCE), all suggesting a building upper level ridge over the Plains this weekend, lends itself to a high confidence weekend forecast.
A deep upstream upper level trough over the Rockies will shift east into the central Plains late tonight and Friday.
The northeasterly flow may promote cloud line formation this afternoon in the vicinity of the Lower Keys, although given reduced insolation, confidence in reaching a near- surface temperature to support convective initiation is quite low.
Otherwise, sub-tropical ridging extending from the Gulf of Mexico into the Deep South will continue to flatten and become suppressed as a deep longwave trough ejects out of the Rockies and into the Great Plains. A zone of showers and thunderstorms currently extends along and ahead of a cold frontal boundary draped from east Texas to the Midwest. Regardless of convective development, the pressure gradient and density change with the much cooler airmass will support widespread strong wind gusts with the frontal passage, which looks to mainly occur during the evening to early morning hours.
Winds will increase near Arlington and Elk Mountain after 06z tonight as deep layer subsidence increases in the wake of the trough in the RFQ of a 100 knot H25 jet streak.
A ridge of high pressure is expected to build over the region by Friday into the weekend. The ridge will cause a warming and drying trend over the Northern Rockies.
Temperatures will feel cool, but they will still be slightly warmer than normal. Predominately MVFR with a tongue of IFR spreading into the region this morning as clouds from a large area of low pressure moving into Canada rotate around the low. Winds will increase over the lake today and turn more southwesterly as a large area of low pressure exits, but by late this evening they will begin to decrease.
A cold front will move into the Big Country tonight and into the Concho Valley and Heartland near daybreak.
Precipitation will end across the majority of the area by midnight tonight as ridging begins to build in. Ridging will keep Friday dry, with highs warming to the 40s across most locations.
Temps will remain much warmer than normal, with highs reaching the mid-upper 80s at the coast and upper 80s to low 90s inland.
High pressure has settled in across the southeastern U. High pressure will continue to dominate across the region through the end of the week with slightly above normal rain chances. In addition, winds will be gradually decreasing as the ridge builds southward across Florida and the Florida Keys.
It will be dry with warm temps with highs in the lower 80s for most locations, which is well above normal. Continued warm and dry through the short term period, with some late night/early morning fog Discussion: The upper ridge axis over the Appalachians will shift slowly east during the short term period as a trough begins to move into the Plains. Meanwhile, broad high pressure will remain over the region at the surface.
519 AM MDT Thu Oct 14 2021 12Z TAF CYCLE VFR prevails with the isolated exception along the CO border where a few light snow showers will skirt by late today and evening favoring the higher terrain.
Snowfall accumulations across the mountains are expected to range from 3 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts on the higher west facing peaks and ridges. Meanwhile, widespread season ending freeze is pretty much assured across the lower valleys tonight into Friday morning as clouds diminish over all but the Divide.
Any lingering precipitation will exit to the northeast today as the low pressure system departs the region. Upper ridging will develop across the region heading into the weekend. Large scale subsidence will drive mainly dry weather conditions as well as warmer temperatures.
and Friday The occluded front will exit northeast Wisconsin by sunrise, followed by drier and only slightly cooler air. Skies should start out clear this evening, but an approaching upper trough will bring increasing clouds after midnight.
High pressure at the surface and aloft is retreating eastward, making way for the next active weather system. A slow-moving cold front is currently situated west of the Mississippi River, and is poised to being widespread showers and storms to Middle Tennessee Friday and Friday night.
702 AM EDT Thu Oct 14 2021 A sharp, north-south ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will crest over Pennsylvania today and tonight, providing a continuation of the unseasonably mild and dry weather pattern. Gusty showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are expected to move into the region for Friday afternoon and evening as a warm front lifts north across the region.
711 AM EDT Thu Oct 14 2021 A sharp, north-south ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will crest over Pennsylvania today and tonight, providing a continuation of the unseasonably mild and dry weather pattern. Gusty showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are expected to move into the region for Friday afternoon and evening as a warm front lifts north across the region.
638 AM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021 Dynamic mid level low has moved off into Canada this am, but more troffing aloft is expected to advect across the forecast area through Friday. Overnight lows will be near to a little above freezing. Overall, despite the passage of a trof aloft and some forecast cloudiness, it will be dry through Friday.
The corresponding cold front is expected to enter the CWA by Friday afternoon then offshore around 00z Friday.
712 AM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021 Westerly winds will continue to push across the area this morning with gusts to 35mph possible this morning as the low pressure system continues its crawl to the northeast. Challenges and impacts for the next 36hrs will revolve around the departing upper low with cloudy and breezy conditions. Stacked low pressure system centered north of the international border in southeast Manitoba will continue to influence the region for much of the period with stratus cloud deck and westerly winds. Within the cyclonic flow will be scattered shower activity wrapping around the southern portion of the upper low today mainly along and north Hwy 2 with the threat gradually lifting NE with the low.
517 AM EDT Thu Oct 14 2021 A sharp, north-south ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will crest over Pennsylvania today and tonight, providing a continuation of the unseasonably mild and dry weather pattern. Gusty showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are expected to move into the region for Friday afternoon and evening as a warm front lifts north across the region.
A warming trend is expected the rest of the week with highs over the lower deserts around 80 degrees today before topping out in the upper 80s and lower 90s over the weekend.
211 AM MST Thu Oct 14 2021 A warming trend is expected the rest of the week with highs over the lower deserts around 80 degrees today before topping out in the upper 80s and lower 90s over the weekend.
406 AM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021 Challenges and impacts for the next 36hrs will revolve around the departing upper low with cloudy and breezy conditions. Stacked low pressure system centered north of the international border in southeast Manitoba will continue to influence the region for much of the period with stratus cloud deck and westerly winds. Within the cyclonic flow will be scattered shower activity wrapping around the southern portion of the upper low today mainly along and north Hwy 2 with the threat gradually lifting NE with the low.
617 AM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021 The main concern in the short term will again be overnight lows, as temperatures will hover in the low 30s to upper 20s.
We remain in the "battle-zone" between a stubborn ridge of high pressure to our east and an approaching trough to our west. Humid southerly winds will continue to keep temperatures above normal today with highs again expected to get up into the low-to-mid 80s.
606 AM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021 (Today and tonight) A longwave mid-level trough will make its way into the Southern Plains later this afternoon. A cold front is forecasted to move through the area later in the night, and thunderstorms are possible along this boundary. Forecast soundings suggest that any storm development will be elevated, as there should be some convective inhibition in the lowest levels.
Most model guidance shows the high cloudiness from central Mississippi moving into northwestern Alabama and expanding eastward this morning into the early afternoon hours. Temperatures are currently in the lower to mid 60s in most locations. Otherwise, expect highs in the lower 80s primarily.
A broad trough stretches from the Intermountain West through the Rocky Mountains region early this morning. Temperatures today will remain around 10 degrees cooler than average for mid October. The trough slides east tonight through Friday with cooler air and breezy northeast winds filtering into the area in it's wake. A quiet and warmer weather pattern is in store for the upcoming weekend as model guidance is in agreement with a ridge building over the region.
High pressure aloft builds over Montana this weekend for dry and warmer temperatures with gusty west winds.
A longwave trough over the Rockies continues to move eastward into the Central Plains. Heights begin to rise on Friday as a ridge begins to build into the southwest off the Pacific.
114 PM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021 Currently have an upper trough extending from the Northern Rockies into the Central Great Basin. So for today, southeast KS will have the higher precip chances. Will expand rain chances tonight as the main trough and associated vort max swings across KS/northern OK. Still keeping with the thinking that the highest rain chances will still remain over southeast KS which will be closer to the right entrance region of a strong upper jet. We are looking for highs Fri to generally be in the low 60s. Models remain consistent in showing northwest flow aloft over the Plains for Sat and some weak upper ridging for Sun. There is some decent model agreement between the GFS and ECMWF in a compact upper low moving out into the Great Basin for Mon.
It's worth noting that some guidance, especially the global forecast models, are dry across the area tomorrow, and it's certainly possible that the low level dry air wins out and little to no precip makes it down to the surface.
A shallow back door cold front will then slide into eastern NM tonight with a northeast wind shift.
Temperatures at 3 PM ranged from the mid 50s toward central Nebraska to the lower and mid 60s in eastern Nebraska into southwest Iowa. That said, ground truth observations have been rather spotty owing to some dry air in the low levels. The main question will be how much actually reaches the ground due to the aforementioned dry air in the low levels, but given the upstream observations and strengthening forcing, should be enough to warrant at least some low precip chances overnight. The trough passes through the area on Friday leading to the coldest day of the week as temperatures across the area are expected to be in the mid 50s to right around 60 degrees.
Showers and thunderstorms will likely develop over west-central Oklahoma late evening (around 04Z) as the cold front progresses into northwest Oklahoma and as the low heads eastward from Childress towards Vernon.
(This evening through Friday) In the wake of the heavy rain, cooler and drier air is filtering in nicely across west central Texas this afternoon. Tomorrow, another cold front will sweep across the area. Much cooler air will be advected in for the area, resulting in high temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
High pressure then builds over Montana this weekend for dry and warmer temperatures with periods of gusty westerly winds.
Discussion: In the upper levels, a ridge will be over the East Coast and a deep trough will be over the Central U. Tomorrow, this trough will move into the region from the west. At the surface, high pressure over the East Coast and Southeast will weaken as a low develops in the Ohio Valley. The associated cold front will be near Western TN tomorrow afternoon. After the fog dissipates clouds will thin out enough for temps to climb into the lower 80s. Lows will be in the lower 60s.
Dynamic mid level low has moved off into Canada this am, but more troffing aloft is expected to advect across the forecast area through Friday. Overnight lows will be near to a little above freezing. Overall, despite the passage of a trof aloft and some forecast cloudiness, it will be dry through Friday.
1214 PM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021 The main concern in the short term will again be overnight lows, as temperatures will hover in the low 30s to upper 20s.
High pressure will be centered to the north northeast through this period. Subsidence under the high will limit precipitation potential. The coolest locations Thursday afternoon will be at the coast due to the onshore flow across the relatively cooler Atlantic coastal waters.
Showers and scattered thunderstorms will then pick up again on Friday morning as the trough currently over the Intermountain West finally moves east across Missouri and Illinois by Friday evening. These chances will fall off quickly on Friday evening along and east of the Mississippi River as the trough axis moves across the area.
Water vapor imagery indicates the strong upper low propagating to the northeast away from the region. Upper level energy (as seen upstream on radar imagery) will rotate around the upper low propagating away from the region. For Friday into Friday night, upper ridging starts to build into the region, relaxing the surface pressure gradient with clouds clearing.
207 PM MDT Thu Oct 14 2021 Afternoon instability and trough moving over the area has produced some isolated rain/snow pellet showers over the area. Look for decreasing clouds tonight as the upper trough exits to the east. High pressure moves in on Friday bringing dry conditions to the area. SE Montana will continue to melt snow with highs holding in the low to mid 40s.
The cold front that will impact our area tonight was draped across northwest Kansas. Water vapor imagery shows the mid-level trough over the Rockies with the circulation associated with the primary vort max centered over southwest Wyoming. Thompson (Today and tonight) A longwave mid-level trough will make its way into the Southern Plains later this afternoon. A cold front is forecasted to move through the area later in the night, and thunderstorms are possible along this boundary. Forecast soundings suggest that any storm development will be elevated, as there should be some convective inhibition in the lowest levels.
The main concern will be low temperatures with cooler air settling in. Although cloud cover will linger over parts of the area, still expect temperatures to be at or below freezing for a good chunk of our area, coldest to the west. Therefore, have gone ahead with a freeze warning to address the threat of freezing temperatures. October 15th is the date when the average lows across western and central ND start dropping below freezing. Even though some areas have yet to see freezing temperatures this fall, this will inevitably come to an end quickly as we head through the second half of October. On Friday, quiet weather is expected as west coast ridge nudges over the Rockies.