Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Windy conditions prevail today as a strong, dry cold front passes through the region associated with a deep upper low embedded within the northwesterly flow anchored to the High Plains. Areas of subsidence will pair with increased surface gradients for wind gusts toping off between 45 and 55 mph across a large portion of the High PLains and adjacent High Terrain. Winds will finally become light around midnight in the trough's wake. Luckily the winds will have diminish during the coldest period, and wind chill temperatures will only drop into the low 20s.
Lower elevations will likely see a rain and snow mix this morning, possibly even spreading south to Natrona County as the low moves southeast into the High Plains. Accumulations will be greatest across the Bighorns, where 4 to 6 inches across the highest terrain is likely. WY remains in fast northwesterly flow through the weekend, being caught between sharp ridge along the West Coast and large trough centered on the Great Lakes.
742 AM EDT Thu May 7 2020 Some patchy fog developed over a few valleys in NE GA with temps in the low to mid 30s. Rain moves out Fri night and with much cooler air could see temps near or below freezing in valley areas in far NE counties. This in spite of north winds staying up in ridgetops and possibly valleys through the early morning. Fortunately, the window of time near and below freezing temperatures should be fairly short.
Dry conditions will continue for the first half of the day with surface ridging in place. The aforementioned front is progged to become quasi- stationary out in the vicinity of I-70 this evening as precipitation moves east of the ridges. Thickness values and temperatures aloft support a mix with or changeover to snow during the afternoon but given forecast surface temperatures meaningful accumulations should be confined to the ridges, however, given the forcing measurable amounts should be possible at lower elevations.
Another day of below normal temps and even cooler than yesterday. The short wave combined with frontogenetical forcing along a warm front may produce some banded precipitation. Even with cooler temperatures today afternoon RHs are expected to fall to around 20 percent, a bit higher across SE ND where recent 1 inch rains have fallen.
Shift to north winds will occur behind the cold front tonight, with MVFR ceilings likely persisting through 12z Friday. As the mid-level cyclone approaches overnight, expect convection to increase along the southward advancing cold front, with storms entering northeast OK this evening.
A strong and dry cold front will follow the dryline tonight and Friday bringing very windy conditions and patchy blowing dust to the region. Will go ahead and upgrade the High Wind Watch to a High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains late tonight through Friday afternoon.
318 AM MDT Thu May 7 2020 Low pressure moving across southern Montana this morning with band of rain extending across the southwest zones.
513 AM EDT Thu May 7 2020 A late season cold front is beginning to traverse the offshore Gulf waters of the Florida Keys early this morning. High temperatures will still manage to rise into the lower 80s as the solar zenith angle is nearly minimized as we slowly approach the Summer solstice.
Highs today will be a bit warmer than yesterday, topping out in the low 60s on the Plateau to the upper 60s west. Next trough will be moving southeastward from the Central Plains towards the mid state today, bringing rain chances in after midnight tonight. Rain chances will diminish from west to east during the afternoon and early evening, and skies will clear quickly behind the cold front.
and Friday An upper low will move south from James Bay to the Great Lakes and bring unseasonably cold weather to the area starting tonight. Skies will be sunny today with highs about five to ten degrees cooler than yesterday. A backdoor cold front is forecast to arrive in the afternoon. It will enhance a lake breeze that will bring sharply cooler temperatures as it moves inland.
Post frontal winds ushering in a dry airmass will drop RH values into the low/mid 20 percent west of I-95,and low/mid 30 percent along the coast this afternoon. Afternoon highs remain in the lower 70s along the Volusia coast, with mid/upper 70s elsewhere. Normally cooler reaches of our interior rural areas may realize overnight lows in the upper 40s.
/Issued 742 AM EDT Thu May 7 2020/ Some patchy fog developed over a few valleys in NE GA with temps in the low to mid 30s. Rain moves out Fri night and with much cooler air could see temps near or below freezing in valley areas in far NE counties. This in spite of north winds staying up in ridgetops and possibly valleys through the early morning. Fortunately, the window of time near and below freezing temperatures should be fairly short.
Behind this system, much colder air will filter into the region Friday night, as a Low pressure system deepens into the Great Lakes. Mid/upper level ridging will continue into today, with sunshine occurring through the morning. Heading into the afternoon, the next system will begin shifting high and mid clouds overhead, as Low pressure deepens into the northern Great Lakes. and a secondary Low pressure system shifts through the central Plains. This secondary system will be the weather producer late today through Friday morning, while the Low deepening into the Great Lakes drives the overall pattern. However, this Low is expected to track through the mid-Mississippi River Valley into the eastern Tennessee Valley on Friday. Dry weather will end the week, as the secondary Low pressure system heads out of the region. Unfortunately, behind this system cooler weather will filter in for Friday.
High pressure will be over the area today with sct cumulus clouds and west winds mainly under 10KT. Clouds will increase tonight with isold -SHRA developing ahead of a cold front.
Current temperatures are in the lower 80s with dew points are in the lower to mid 60s across the island chain.
This upper-level low is expected to continue traversing southeast, before joining up with a more prominent trough that will be centered over the Great Lakes region tomorrow. Low temperatures tonight are expected to dip into the mid to low 30's with the northwestern portions of the CWA falling to near-freezing temperatures. Hi-res model solutions suggest lower wind speeds in far northern Nebraska and would combine with the cooler temperatures to support some frost development.
However, a secondary boundary associated in association with upper level trof will slide southeast across the high plains.
At the surface, high pressure will build into the Southeast, helping to calm winds as we progress through the morning and early afternoon hours. We'll mix into a remnant cold pool aloft today which will help keep temperatures on the order of 5 or so degrees cooler than yesterday.
Later this evening, an upper level low will approach kicking off two rounds of severe storms. The second round will start later (8-10pm) in northwest Oklahoma along a cold front. Friday will be cool in the wake of the cold front with high temperatures in the 60s.
High pressure centered over MS this afternoon will build across the region overnight then set up over the Atlantic east of Florida on Friday. On Friday winds will shift to the southwest and increase as the next seasonally strong cold front approaches.
310 PM EDT Thu May 7 2020 A cold front is forecast to move into the area Friday afternoon and exit Friday night.
125 PM EDT Thu May 7 2020 A weak cold front will develop north of the I-70 corridor this evening and slowly move southwards overnight.
The high pressure to the north over Minnesota and Wisconsin is showing signs of winning over the rain developing with some decent dry air advecting in from the north.
Low level high pressure has shifted east to over Mississippi at noon time, bringing a light northerly surface flow to the forecast area. The low level high pressure is expected to shift quickly east over the southeast, with generally southerly surface flow returning to the forecast area tonight. Low temperatures in the low to mid 50s expected along I-10 and points south.
Temps may increase briefly into the low 70s for some areas due to this. Regardless, after this upper disturbance moves across the area tonight, skies will abruptly clear and cooler air will move in.
236 PM MDT Thu May 7 2020 Current surface analysis shows quite the pressure gradient over our area between high pressure over the northern Rockies and low pressure over the southern high plains. An upper level low pressure center currently over eastern WY/western SD will continue to move southeast and not impact us except keep winds gusty over northern areas a little longer.
Strong high pressure will then build south out of Canada into the northern and central Plains early Friday morning. This high will bring not only dry weather, but cooler temperatures into the region. Overnight low temperatures will easily drop into the low to mid 30s tonight. With light winds combined with this cooler air, frost is likely across the region.
This afternoon will be about 5-10 degrees warmer compared to yesterday. High pressure will strengthen over the Pacific Northwest, and an inverted surface thermal trough will build west of the Cascades. A few of the colder mountain valleys as well as the wind protected areas of the Blue Mountain Foothills fell well below freezing this morning. It will be warmer tonight, but I went somewhat colder than guidance for these same areas.
Meanwhile, across the Lower Keys, winds remain from the north between 10 and 15 mph, with occasional gusts around 20 mph. As the high pushes east through the day on Friday, winds will further clock around to the east and southeast by the afternoon.
126 PM MDT Thu May 7 2020 Satellite imagery early this afternoon shows an upper low over northeast Wyoming. This upper low will shift southeast into the central Plains tonight. A secondary cold front will push south across the area this evening. Have kept the high wind warning going for now.
Later this afternoon and evening, thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front to our north, as well as in the vicinity of the dryline to our west.
BDL Some patchy fog developed over a few valleys in NE GA with temps in the low to mid 30s. Rain moves out Fri night and with much cooler air could see temps near or below freezing in valley areas in far NE counties. This in spite of north winds staying up in ridgetops and possibly valleys through the early morning. Fortunately, the window of time near and below freezing temperatures should be fairly short.
In addition, the pressure gradient will be very tight behind the departing cold front which will cause winds to increase to 20-25 mph. Expect highs in the lower to mid 60s. Canadian high pressure will then quickly build into the Mid-South by Friday Night and will remain over the area for much of the weekend.
1253 PM EDT Thu May 7 2020 Cooler and drier air has overtaken the region with much below normal temperatures expected through the weekend. A few showers are possible late Friday through Friday night as a cold front moves through but mainly dry weather expected for the next few days. Dry and cooler air mass in place across the area and despite weak downslope flow and weak warm advection developing this afternoon temperatures struggling to rise through the 60s with full insolation. Somewhat favorable radiational cooling most of the night but expect at least some mid and high level clouds toward dawn ahead of weak low pressure system approaching the mid Mississippi Valley region. Through the day an upper trough moving eastward towards the region will be pushing a cold front into the southeastern U.
Still looks like temperatures will get down near and below freezing for most of the area. The exceptions will be where the urban heat island can keep things a few degrees warmer and at higher elevations where winds and mixing could help some.
Overnight, as a strong cold front moves south through the area, there will be another chance for showers and thunderstorms along the front as it moves through, mainly east of a Haskell, to Abilene, to Mason line after midnight. Much cooler temperatures will also follow the front with highs from around 70 along/north of I-20, to the upper 70s along the I-10 corridor.
Temperatures across the area were in the low to mid 60s with dewpoints in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
1205 PM MDT Thu May 7 2020 We sent out another update to extend the High Wind Warning in Arlington til 02z. Windy conditions prevail today as a strong, dry cold front passes through the region associated with a deep upper low embedded within the northwesterly flow anchored to the High Plains. Areas of subsidence will pair with increased surface gradients for wind gusts toping off between 45 and 55 mph across a large portion of the High PLains and adjacent High Terrain. Winds will finally become light around midnight in the trough's wake. Luckily the winds will have diminish during the coldest period, and wind chill temperatures will only drop into the low 20s.
This will set the stage for sub-freezing overnight lows, on Friday night. Low pressure will track up the Ohio Valley Friday, while Canadian high pressure builds down the Plains. The strong cold advection will limit highs to the low/mid 50s. There is some question in the amount of boundary layer decoupling with the center of the ridge remaining to our southwest, but clear skies and the intensity of the cold airmass should result in sub-freezing low temperatures for most, if not all of the CWA, with latest guidance showing 29-32F lows.
the cap remains as of forged steel across the CWFA though there are some hints of softening along the eastern edge of a theta-e ridge ahead of the main dryline which was located along the Briscoe/Hall county line and looks as if it has about as good a chance of development over anything we've seen this afternoon. The atmosphere, as expected, is well mixed west and capped east and the extra thermodynamic assistance that the eastward advecting theta-e ridge can provide looks to be the best hope that storms will fire. Moving into this evening, a cold front, with some potential for advisory level winds in its wake, will swiftly move through the CWFA.
Model indications are that this convection will be more elevated as it lags the sfc cold front. All convection should be well s and e of our area by early Friday evening, with a much cooler airmass advecting swd in the wake of the front.
An upper level ridge will strengthen over the region bringing a warming trend through the weekend.
338 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020 This afternoon a mid level trough was moving through western Kansas as shown on satellite and profilers. The passage of the mid level trough referenced above later tonight will bring an end to the precipitation across the area. High pressure then builds in for Friday with clearing skies in the morning.
255 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020 The area of low pressure rotating through western SD this afternoon that is responsible for the bands of rain in central SD will exit this evening. High pressure will build in bringing cold and dry air tonight and Friday. Clouds will move back in Friday night ahead of the next low keeping temps above freezing but still cool in the 30s.
As this cold-pool dominant convective system moves cross northern portions of the ArkLaMiss region Friday morning, it is expected to move out ahead of the better theta-e ridge axis and encounter a more stable boundary layer. As we go later into the morning/afternoon, there is some uncertainty with how this decaying MCS will impact subsequent destabilization ahead of the cold front for locations along/south of the I-20 corridor. A surface cold front will be clearing the area at the start of the forecast period tomorrow night.
139 PM MDT Thu May 7 2020 Water vapor shows large amplitude ridge along the west coast with active northwest flow through the northern plains. Robust upper low is currently over the Black Hills, with next upper wave diving southeast across BC. Precip will continue through early evening, then quickly shift southeast of the region by midnight behind departing upper low. On Friday, short wave transitory ridge (in-between upper lows) will bring a short period of dry and mild conditions.
A cooler and stable air mass has settled across the area today behind yesterdays cold front. High pressure aloft will then strengthen across the western states and bring warmer temperatures back into the area for Friday through the weekend. The mean upper ridge position over the west coast states will leave the Great Basin under a generally dry and stable northwest flow aloft heading into the weekend. The well defined upper low currently over the southeast corner of Montana will continue to track southeast today.
This area of TSRA wl spread across the area during the day ahead of a cold front. A s-sw wind with gusts in excess of 20kts will develop ahead of the front followed by gusts in excess of 20 kts out of the nw behind the cold front. As this cold-pool dominant convective system moves cross northern portions of the ArkLaMiss region Friday morning, it is expected to move out ahead of the better theta-e ridge axis and encounter a more stable boundary layer. As we go later into the morning/afternoon, there is some uncertainty with how this decaying MCS will impact subsequent destabilization ahead of the cold front for locations along/south of the I-20 corridor. A surface cold front will be clearing the area at the start of the forecast period tomorrow night.
The area of low pressure rotating through western SD this afternoon that is responsible for the bands of rain in central SD will exit this evening. High pressure will build in bringing cold and dry air tonight and Friday. Clouds will move back in Friday night ahead of the next low keeping temps above freezing but still cool in the 30s.
Scattered thunderstorms will accompany a cold front as it crosses north central and south central Kansas late this afternoon and early tonight.
The HRRR shows light showers developing in Middle Tennessee after 06Z, although the low levels are so dry that it will take time for rain rates to increase and cloud ceilings to build downward. Also look for surface winds to increase considerably as the low bisects the mid state.
This afternoon a mid level trough was moving through western Kansas as shown on satellite and profilers. The passage of the mid level trough referenced above later tonight will bring an end to the precipitation across the area. High pressure then builds in for Friday with clearing skies in the morning.
1034 PM EDT Thu May 7 2020 Low pressure will bring widespread rain on Friday, with snow mixing in during the afternoon and evening. As upper level low pressure drops across Ontario, west-southwest flow will develop overnight, pushing better moisture into the region by 12Z, mainly south of Pittsburgh. Increasing convergence and layered frontogenesis near the stalled front, as well as a wave of low pressure moving along it, will lead to increasing chances of rain toward morning. Snowflakes will begin to mix in during the afternoon, starting across the north and in the ridges, as cold air collapses into the area behind the low. The best chances of seeing totals of an inch or more will be across the far northeastern CWA corner, as well as the higher ridges.
Temperatures will be warmer and winds much lighter so for most folks it will be considered a nicer day. Cold front tracks across the area late evening bringing a cool down and generating shower activity.
540 PM MDT Thu May 7 2020 Water vapor shows large amplitude ridge along the west coast with active northwest flow through the northern plains. Robust upper low is currently over the Black Hills, with next upper wave diving southeast across BC. Precip will continue through early evening, then quickly shift southeast of the region by midnight behind departing upper low. On Friday, short wave transitory ridge (in-between upper lows) will bring a short period of dry and mild conditions.
The high pressure that has been making this great weather will exit off to the east and move off the Georgia coast by tomorrow as an area of low pressure develops over north Texas this evening. Storms will increase through the late morning into the afternoon hours ahead of a strong cold front that is projected through southeast Texas tomorrow around sunset and exiting the south central Louisiana coast several hours later.
Overnight lows are forecast to be slightly warmer across these areas due to the winds keeping the atmosphere more mixed.
750 PM EDT Thu May 7 2020 Cooler and drier air has overtaken the region with much below normal temperatures expected through the weekend. A few showers are possible late Friday through Friday night as a cold front moves through but mainly dry weather expected for the next few days. Somewhat favorable radiational cooling most of the night but expect at least some mid and high level clouds toward dawn ahead of a weak low pressure system approaching the mid Mississippi Valley region. Through the day an upper trough moving eastward towards the region will be pushing a cold front into the southeastern U.
537 PM MDT Thu May 7 2020 Current surface analysis shows quite the pressure gradient over our area between high pressure over the northern Rockies and low pressure over the southern high plains. An upper level low pressure center currently over eastern WY/western SD will continue to move southeast and not impact us except keep winds gusty over northern areas a little longer.
Current surface analysis shows quite the pressure gradient over our area between high pressure over the northern Rockies and low pressure over the southern high plains. An upper level low pressure center currently over eastern WY/western SD will continue to move southeast and not impact us except keep winds gusty over northern areas a little longer.
Storm chances will increase greatly after 03Z as a cold front approaches the area. As for the Tulsa CWA, elevated instability is expected to increase ahead of the front late this evening (MUCAPE on the order of 500 to 1000J/kg along and west of a line from about Vinita to Muskogee to Wilburton) should allow (along with improved lift from the passing cold front) for stronger, marginally severe, storms to be sustained as opposed to the round late this afternoon which had little instability to work with.
Could see redevelopment by late morning through the afternoon along the true cold front across our southeast airspace by late morning through the afternoon hours as well so accounted for this with VCTS mention a little later in the aftn at the ELD/LFK terminals. SE to S winds 8-12kts with higher gusts across our NE TX terminal locations overnight will become southwesterly in advance of the cold front that should move through our airspace during the day Friday.
Upper air analysis showed a neutral tilted trough axis in the northwest flow over the northern Plains. Moisture will advect to the north ahead of the associated trough axis with precipitable water value approaching now 1.
1032 PM EDT Thu May 7 2020 Cooler and drier air has overtaken the region with much below normal temperatures expected through the weekend. A few showers are possible late Friday through Friday night as a cold front moves through but mainly dry weather expected for the next few days. Somewhat favorable radiational cooling most of the night but expect at least some mid and high level clouds toward dawn ahead of a weak low pressure system approaching the mid Mississippi Valley region. Through the day an upper trough moving eastward towards the region will be pushing a cold front into the southeastern U.
A few light sprinkles will shift east across the forecast area in the warm air advection pattern ahead of the system during the morning and then precipitation will become heavier with showers developing just ahead of the system cold front from late morning into the afternoon hours. A low pressure system will drag a cold front into the area during the afternoon, with ceilings dropping to around 2k feet and visibility dropping to between three and five miles in light rain showers and fog.