Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Sfc ridging overhead this afternoon will result in Lt/Vrb winds this afternoon, before becoming light S after 00Z.
Continued warm air advection and increasing clouds will result in warmer overnight lows with temperatures mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
With strong radiational cooling and decoupling it is possible we may see freezing temperatures for several hours over large open fields and especially over the blueberries across southeast Georgia. Not all areas will see freezing conditions but it is very possible over the large open spaces.
238 PM CST Thu Mar 8 2018 18Z surface data has high pressure from the upper Midwest into the lower Mississippi Valley.
The upper level ridge across the west has reached peak amplification and will gradually flatten and shift east over the next couple of days as the nor'easter over the northeast dominates the synoptic pattern through Friday. Given the breezy winds, warmer temperatures and extremely dry fuels, an RFD has been issued for noon through 7pm today.
High clouds will stream across Oklahoma and north Texas today, but no significant cloud cover or visibility restrictions are expected, as high pressure remains over the southern Plains. As the high drifts east, southerly winds will start to increase this morning. /issued 400 AM CST Thu Mar 8 2018/ A return to southerly flow today will bring warmer weather for today and Friday. In addition to the warmer conditions, moisture will also return, which will bring a chance of rain to the eastern half of Oklahoma Friday night.
216 PM MST Thu Mar 8 2018 Periodic thick high clouds will continue to affect the region this week despite high pressure locked in place.
This will be caused by a strengthening lee trough due to energy streaming into the northern Rockies. The strengthening lee trough will cause winds to increase from Livingston to Nye and guidance has picked up on this.
233 PM CST Thu Mar 8 2018 An area of high pressure was located over the Dakotas/Minnesota border area at 19Z/1pm. Only some flurries are expected in northwest Wisconsin as the low level moisture is eroding away from the approaching high pressure, and will be above 3K ft by late afternoon. Min temps tonight will still be below normal with single digits above zero likely, a bit warmer near Lake Superior. The aforementioned vort max departs on Friday as upper level/surface ridging build ino the region. There may be a few lingering flurries over the higher terrain of the South Shore of Lake Superior in the morning with a pocket of cold air along this area. The high pressure elsewhere will lead to a partly cloudy to mostly sunny sky.
Any lingering les should weaken quickly by midday Friday as flow becomes more anticyclonic and ridging/subsidence and drier air take hold north of Lake Superior. Winds will generally be less than 25 knots through much of the fcst period under a high pressure ridge. The exception will be Mon into early Tue as northwest winds ramp back up between 20 and 30 knots in the wake of a cold front.
An upper level low will continue to bring some scattered snow showers and flurries to the area today, along with well below normal temperatures. /Today/ An upper level low across eastern Michigan continues to influence the area, with scattered snow showers falling across central Indiana early this morning.
These clouds have kept temperatures in the low 40s. with warmer readings found elsewhere across the Midsouth. Believe models just tend to struggle with both the intensity and timing of descending waves phasing with the main trough.
Slightly warmer air will be in place but with the wave moving through to the south and a widespread snowpack winds will lock in from the east.
Today, it looks like we'll still be dealing with a pesky corridor of low level moisture on the eastern side of the 925mb ridge axis. Looking ahead to the weekend: Slightly better model consistency regarding the upper trough moving through this weekend.
Broad eastern CONUS troffing highlights the synoptic pattern this afternoon. At the surface, high pressure building over the lower MS river valley continues to slowly shift ely into the deep south. Moist nwly flow in the low levels remains the focus of the fcst today as sct snow showers continue to migrate east into the high terrain, with little additional accumulation expected. Overall, the fcst will feature decreasing pops this afternoon/tonight along the high terrain, then dry regionwide through mid day Friday.
Combo of dry ground, dry air, considerable insolation and downslope flow is a sure recipe for the notorious spring-much-warmer-than-anticipated forecast. Values are also very similar to 1000-850 millibar thickness guidance, lending further credence to trending warmer.
Good news is that wind directions will continue veering to the southeast tonight as high pressure moves away, so theoretically we should see some improvement IF that was indeed the origin. Speed max embedded in the upper jet will be making its way around the ridge and into into south cntl Tx Fri evening and night putting us in the LFQ for a time period.
As a ridge of high pressure gradually shifts east of the region, a warm frontal boundary will begin to take shape from Nebraska southeastward into the Ozarks late tonight into Friday. Elsewhere around the area, mostly cloudy conditions will be the rule with highs topping out in the lower to middle 40s. Will have to keep an eye on thermal profiles across the far SE CWA Friday night as low temperatures drop into the lower 30s. Soundings suggest any precip that may be falling could potentially change to a period of light freezing rain overnight.
Concurrently, an upper ridge over the southern plains will lift east into the lower/middle MS River valley, leading to dry conditions and above normal temps over the Midsouth through midweek.
If winds don't go totally calm, this could end up being a patchy frost scenario for portion of the lower Susq, but I'd expect most valleys to dip at least into the mid 30s down there, and likely lower 30s across the central mountains. Though flow will still be from the NW, lighter winds will allow the sun to push highs 3-5F warmer. Not quite as chilly Tue night with thin high clouds poss and lows dipping into the lower 30s north to around 40 south. The upper pattern is going to be slow to break down with a pair of upper lows extending from off the New England coast up to south of Hudson's Bay staying pinched between a blocking high over NERN Canada and a ridge poking up from the Gulf of Mexico basically all week.
High pressure building over the region will result in a warming trend into Tuesday.
Not much to update this evening with the upper ridge slowly building its way eastward.
1007 PM MDT Mon May 8 2017 Storms moving across southern Nebraska are being enhanced by weak low level convergence and moist axis associated with cold front laying E-W across the area.
Convection diminishes after midnight with the upper low over southern Arizona finally kicking out slowly to the ENE. Winds aloft will be swing around the the dial from the south to southeast and eventually east by Tuesday night as the low passes to our south.
The low has exited to the east and drier air is moving in. Gusty northwest winds have persisted behind the front, but will see these winds diminish tonight as high pressure begins building into the region. Otherwise, it appears much of the CWA will be dry on Tuesday as high pressure remains in control.
1030 PM EDT Mon May 8 2017 Currently - A weak high pressure system is aligned on central Gulf coast. Dry conditions prevail with surface dew points in the lower 60s, a fairly low inversion, and very dry air aloft. Temperatures will range quite a bit from the lower 70s to the mid 60s, helped out by some early morning radiational cooling.
High pressure over the region will keep a dry and warm air mass in place into Wed. Low pressure dropping down from the Gulf of Alaska late in the week will settle in over the Pacific NW into the weekend, bringing a period of cool showery weather.
Stagnant weather will continue over the central Great Lakes through at least midweek as blocking drifts across the Baffin Island and Greenland regions. To varying degrees over the next couple of days, persistent entrance region dynamics aloft will support a shearing zone over the Great Lakes in addition to aggregate surface ridging due to high static stability in a deep portion of the troposphere.
With the clear skies and light winds, temps will continue to fall quickly with lows still expected in the lower to upper 50s.
1155 PM CDT Mon May 8 2017 Updated aviation section for 06z taf issuance Early this afternoon, a warm front was between KMVN-KMDH, extending southeast to just north of K2I0.
Recent water vapor imagery showing upper ridge in place over the Central and Southern Plains. Elevated thunderstorm activity in Iowa has slowly diminished over the morning, with storms continuing over the Dakotas downstream of an upper level trough over southern Saskatchewan. Cold front associated with this wave was moving southeast into central portions of Nebraska. This boundary mixes a bit north Tuesday as the upper ridge nudges east. Weak cold air advection early should keep temps a bit cooler in the north and east but similar temps expected again in the south and east. By Tuesday night, a deep upper-level closed low will be located over the southwestern U. with broad ridging over the eastern CONUS.
But went more toward warmer MET across the south as clouds thicken and lower. Warm front will be in place to start the period, with showers expected either side of this boundary. Warm front persists through late week as upper ridge axis to our south slowly shifts east. The ridge is forecast to deamplify as an upper trough approaches from the west. Until this trough clears the area, expecting periodic rain to continue.
A high pressure ridge remained in place across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys this afternoon. Dew points in the lower to middle 50s will slowly creep in from the west through tonight.
Storm chances will focus near the frontal zone, and over the High Plains where upslope flow and moisture transport is indicated.
/issued 848 PM CDT Mon May 8 2017/ The upper level ridge is still in place over the area but will shift off to the east late Tuesday. Low level moisture has streamed in from over the Pacific ocean and Mexico causing overnight temperatures to be warmer than previous nights. Overnight low temperatures will be in upper 50s in eastern half of the ArkLaTex while east texas region will be in the lower 60s. The deep east Texas region is warmer due to the aforementioned low level moisture that is currently in place.
Mins will range from the lower to middle 30s across most of central and southeast sections. Though flow will still be from the NW, lighter winds will allow the sun to push highs 3-5F warmer. Not quite as chilly Tue night with thin high clouds poss and lows dipping into the lower 30s north to around 40 south. The upper pattern is going to be slow to break down with a pair of upper lows extending from off the New England coast up to south of Hudson's Bay staying pinched between a blocking high over NERN Canada and a ridge poking up from the Gulf of Mexico basically all week.
903 PM EDT Mon May 8 2017 High pressure should maintain mainly dry and cool weather through the first half of the week. Dry weather is expected to continue tonight under high pressure. Continued the frost advisory that was already in effect as well as adding a freeze warning across Butler, Lawrence, and Mercer counties with below freezing conditions expected.
/issued 343 PM CDT Mon May 8 2017/ High pressure to the east conts to funnel southeast winds into Texas and Louisiana this afternoon. Temperatures have climbed back into the 80s as the ridge aloft has suppressed mst cld dvlpmnt. With both the ridge aloft anchored over the cntrl US and high pressure to the east holding steady.
Winds will diminish around sunset as high pressure moves in. Upper level analysis places compact low spinning over southern Saskatchewan, while a short wave rides up the upper level ridge that pushes into the upper midwest through the Lake of the Woods. A line of showers and thunderstorms over eastern North Dakota continues to gradually exit the southeast portion of our area, while some cloud cover has developed over our northwest in the cyclonic flow around the aforementioned upper low.
Will see mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with the high level cirrus moving in from the south.
Only updates were to decrease pops over the higher terrain initially this evening as showers have been a bit slower to develop. Precipitation ends tomorrow evening as upper trof slides east of the area.
1049 PM EDT Mon May 8 2017 A warm front will work into the region tonight bringing a chance of rain showers.
The surface dew point will continue to increase through the period, into the low 60s by mid morning Tuesday.
Widespread mid to upper 80s can be expected across most of the area with any remaining 70s relegated to the high mountain terrain. A weak disturbance skirting the departing trough over the Northeast will bring some precipitation to the Carolinas on Tuesday, but our area will remain dry.
Central Alabama continues to be under the influence of an upper level trof covering the Atlantic coast.
Deep layer ridging over the northern Gulf coast will make for a quiet weather period through tonight.
SPC mesoanalysis shows the lower atmosphere is beginning to stabilize with loss of heating.
1041 PM CDT Mon May 8 2017 Cold front that was pretty close to bisecting our CWA at 19z will continue pushing east through the rest of the afternoon and evening with all areas seeing northwest wind by around sunset.
647 PM CDT Mon May 8 2017 Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows upper level closed low over the southwest United States/northeast United States and upper level ridge over the central United States. First pieces of energy ejecting out of the closed low over southwest United States is overtopping the ridge and producing a cluster of showers/thunderstorms over eastern North Dakota per latest mosaic radar.
931 PM EDT Mon May 8 2017 A large upper level low will gradually weaken over southern Canada and northern New England through Tuesday. A stationary front will then position itself near the southern Mid- Atlantic this week with several waves of low pressure developing along it and moving near or south of the region. Weak high pressure will build overhead tonight. As the large upper level low weakens and shifts eastward, this will allow for a baroclinic zone to set up shop from the Midwest, into the Ohio Valley and across the southern Mid- Atlantic states, likely just southwest of the immediate region. This will be the focus for several waves of moisture/energy/low pressure to push near the region for the middle and end of the week.
Winds southeasterly increasing and getting gusty in the afternoon with the high end gusts near 20 knots.
919 PM MST Mon May 8 2017 An unusually strong low pressure storm system for early May will continue to bring unsettled conditions to the Desert Southwest through the middle of the week. The upper low will continue to track northward and will move into southern Arizona by tomorrow afternoon. Much cooler temperatures and increased cloud cover can also be expected Tuesday, with highs 20-25 degrees below normal for the date.
Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s and lower 80s in the thermal ridge axis just ahead of the trough from west central into south central MN, where dewpoints are creeping up toward the 60 degree mark. Temperatures remain mild tonight mostly in the lower 40s to lower 50s, with cooler highs on Tuesday in the lower 60s to lower 70s.
747 PM EDT Mon May 8 2017 Dry high pressure continues across the area.
Turning cooler and unsettled for the latter half of the week. Temperatures are running a lot warmer this evening up around 10 degrees for most locations as of 9 pm.
702 PM CDT Mon May 8 2017 2 PM surface map showed 1006 mb low pressure in southwest MN with a warm front extending southeast into west central IL. Lows will be significantly warmer than recent nights, in the low to mid 50s. Highs should range from the low to mid 70s north of I-74, to the lower 80s farther southwest where more sunshine and southwest flow will boost readings.
/DL/ Tonight and Tuesday afternoon: Ridging aloft will continue to build into the Lower Mississippi River Valley as high pressure at the surface slowly slides east of the forecast area over the next 24 hours.
749 PM EDT Mon May 8 2017 A warm front will work into the region tonight bringing a chance of rain showers.
Satellite data indicated persistent low cloud cover over much of Campbell County in WY and the southwestern part of SD, with a few very weak non-precipitating echoes over the higher Black Hills. Finally, water vapor images shows an upper low over the far southwestern CONUS, with a northern stream wave moving across southern Canada.
627 PM CDT Mon May 8 2017 The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features an Omega blocking pattern, with upper-level lows over the Northeast and the Southwest flanking a large upper ridge located across the central CONUS. This ridge will dominate the region through the period, bringing warm conditions. A warm front has pushed into portions of western IL this afternoon. A trailing cold front will slip into portions of northeast MO and western IL by Tuesday afternoon.
1210 AM EDT Tue May 9 2017 High pressure should maintain mainly dry weather through mid week.
Mostly clear skies through Tuesday as an upper level ridge builds over the region.
623 PM CDT Mon May 8 2017 Cold front that was pretty close to bisecting our CWA at 19z will continue pushing east through the rest of the afternoon and evening with all areas seeing northwest wind by around sunset.
It was partly cloudy and warm across the Mid-State early this afternoon, with temperatures in the lower 70s along the Cumberland Plateau and middle to upper 70s elsewhere. Upper level ridge remains arced up across the Mississippi River Valley, with a warm westerly flow at the surface across Middle Tennessee.
East Central Florida Forecast Discussion 823 PM EDT Mon May 8 2017 High pressure in proximity to the area will provide for clear skies and light to calm winds overnight.
Lows will be in the lower to mid 60s, with mostly cloudy skies. For Tuesday, the weather may get little more active as an upper level low over the southwest US moves a little closer to our area.
907 PM CDT Mon May 8 2017 Latest surface analysis had weak low pressure centered over the upper Midwest, with a warm front extending southeast across the southern tip of Illinois. 2 PM surface map showed 1006 mb low pressure in southwest MN with a warm front extending southeast into west central IL. Lows will be significantly warmer than recent nights, in the low to mid 50s. Highs should range from the low to mid 70s north of I-74, to the lower 80s farther southwest where more sunshine and southwest flow will boost readings.
1200 AM CDT Tue May 9 2017 One of the warmest days of the year ongoing across the Lwr Missouri Valley this afternoon thanks to well-established upper ridging aloft. This is occurring in advance of a deep closed low currently positioned over northern Baja California. This feature will have big impacts on our weather by midweek, however another warm day is expected tomorrow as the ridging temporarily remains in place one more day before eventually breaking down as the low approaches. With respect to tomorrow, expect to see similar afternoon highs as to today's, however values may be a degree or two cooler in response to increasing cloud cover.
Another quiet evening is in store tonight as high pressure continues to sit just off the coast of Louisiana. The low level moisture seeping in from the Gulf will bring a few CU into our southwest region, but mostly clear conditions will continue elsewhere. /12/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Tuesday afternoon: Ridging aloft will continue to build into the Lower Mississippi River Valley as high pressure at the surface slowly slides east of the forecast area over the next 24 hours.
Cloudy skies with easterly winds through the day to bring much cooler highs from the low 60s northwest to near 70 southeast. During the late afternoon, a warm front situated along the Nebraska/Kansas border southwest into east central Colorado will be the main focus for strong storms to develop. Chances increase Tuesday night as the upper low moves from southern Arizona into western New mexico overnight. Diffluent flow aloft and favored development along and north of the warm front will promote increasing convection overnight with likely pops forecast.
Dew points have been surging northeast today in the Plains and Midwest on the south wide of a warm front developing from South Dakota to the Pennyrile. The front will drift to the northeast tonight and allow some of those higher dew points into the lower Ohio Valley. An upper wave traveling from the lower Great Lakes to the upper Ohio Valley will help to spark showers and thunderstorms along the warm front after midnight tonight. The northern Blue Grass may get into the lower 70s, but if there's enough cloud cover and rain then those areas won't get out of the 60s.
610 PM CDT Mon May 8 2017 A large upper level low continues to slowly drift eastward from Baja California which has triggered thunderstorms across ERN NM. The low clouds will likely hold into much of the day on Tuesday before thunderstorm chances increase late in the day.
First, how far east to bring precipitation chances tonight? Second, how fast will clouds overspread the area to impact min temperatures tonight? Lastly, will a frost/freeze headline be needed for parts of the forecast area? The 19z MSAS surface analysis showed an area of high pressure centered over central Lake MI, providing for a mostly sunny day across northeast WI. A weak area of low pressure was situated over southwest MN with a warm front stretched southeastward through central IA into south-central IL. The radar mosaic had picked up on some light shower activity across eastern IA, north of the warm front. Have decided to issue a freeze warning for southern Oconto and southern Marinette counties where sub-freezing condition to exist.
An upper level ridge of high pressure has built into the Mid South and will keep dry and seasonably mild temperatures in place overnight. Concurrently, an upper ridge over the southern plains will lift east into the lower/middle MS River valley, leading to dry conditions and above normal temps over the Midsouth through midweek.
721 PM EDT Mon May 8 2017 Upper air pattern consists of a closed 500 mb low off the Baja California coast, troughing in the Rockies and also in the ern U. and ridging in the plains. Upper pattern does not change much with the closed low moving into the desert sw 00z Wed. As a high pressure system continues to remain near the area.
620 PM CDT Mon May 8 2017 One of the warmest days of the year ongoing across the Lwr Missouri Valley this afternoon thanks to well-established upper ridging aloft. This is occurring in advance of a deep closed low currently positioned over northern Baja California. This feature will have big impacts on our weather by midweek, however another warm day is expected tomorrow as the ridging temporarily remains in place one more day before eventually breaking down as the low approaches. With respect to tomorrow, expect to see similar afternoon highs as to today's, however values may be a degree or two cooler in response to increasing cloud cover.
A weak ridge of high pressure will provide dry and warmer weather again Tuesday.
/issued 356 PM EDT Mon May 8 2017/ High pressure will remain in control of the weather across South Florida through the end of the week. High temperatures each afternoon will remain in the mid 80s across the East Coast metro areas to the lower 90s across interior sections.