Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
915 AM EDT Tue May 12 2020 Early week cold will moderate to much warmer weather for the latter half of the week; however, that warmth will be accompanied by increasing humidity and rain chance. Building high pressure will support drying weather and diminished cloud cover today. High temperature should recover to about 10 degrees above yesterdays cold readings, but that will still leave the high approximately 15 degrees under the averages. Dry and cold weather can again be anticipated tonight with areas of freeze again on the ridges and north of PIT, and areas of frost over the remainder of the area.
931 AM EDT Tue May 12 2020 High pressure will build from the north to the northeast Today, with onshore flow continuing. With the exception of high cloudiness passing through an upper trough, subsidence from the high pressure ridge will yield mainly sunny skies for Today. Temperatures will trend below normal due to the onshore flow passing over the relatively cooler coastal waters, with inland areas 5 to 8 degrees warmer than the coast.
with highs in the low to mid 50s. This trend will continue into Wed into Wed night as a warm front lifts north through the state. With much of the CWA being south of the warm front for Wed into Wed night. This front will bring more muggy and warmer conditions to the state.
530 AM MDT Tue May 12 2020 Low pressure will be moving across southern Montana today with a band of precipitation spreading north into the region. A little snow may occur over the higher terrain areas before temperatures warm later today. Winds will also be increasing as the low moves into the state. Precipitation will linger across the region tonight and into Wednesday as an upper low swings south from Canada along the HiLine.
The lowest precipitation amounts appear to be between these two waves--near the I-40 corridor. Warmer conditions are expected across western north Texas, south of the effective warm front.
It will also be a bit cooler today, with Flagstaff not forecast to reach 70 degrees for the first time so far in May (forecast high is 67). Even with the recent rains along with the wind comes heightened fire danger especially at the lower elevations where grasses and chaparral have begun to dry.
340 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020 High pressure will extend over the southern middle Atlantic and Carolinas through Wednesday, then move offshore to near Bermuda through the end of the week. Heights increase aloft on Wednesday as an upper-level ridge builds to our east. Highs will range from the mid-60s over the northern Piedmont to the low 70s in the southern Piedmont, Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain. The overall pattern late this week will feature high pressure centered offshore NW of Bermuda.
1118 AM EDT Tue May 12 2020 High pressure through Wednesday.
254 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020 High pressure over the eastern United States supports strong northeast breezes across the Florida Keys. Temperatures are in the mid 80s with dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s, notably drier than this morning. High pressure over the eastern US will slide slowly east into the western North Atlantic tonight through Wednesday night.
Eventually reaching drier air as they infringe on an area of high pressure, they fade away. The higher-elevation Coteau will remain in the mid-50s, but South Central South Dakota may climb close to 70 F.
Persistent clouds and area remaining north of sfc warm front will maintain cool temps through the day.
Pierce, Idaho is the winner for the highest rainfall in the last 24 hours with 0. There will be a decrease in showers by Wednesday evening into the night-time as a short-lived upper ridge moves over the region.
The highest rainfall totals should be concentrated in and around the Brazos Valley, where widespread totals of 1-2" with locally higher amounts are anticipated.
For 18Z Aviation discussion below Early this morning, temperatures hadn't fallen as fast as expected so freezing temperatures were confined to central Minnesota, and the typical areas where good drainage occurred. I will continue the freeze warning, but not everyone will experience sub-freezing temperatures before sunrise. No major changes to the current forecast as high pressure will drift overhead today.
Meanwhile, models still suggest a warm front will migrate northward into the area with increasing low level moisture during the day tomorrow. Thinking that elevated storms should re- develop north of the warm front Wednesday night, however that moisture transport looks to target northeast Kansas thus sparing most of our area.
The ridging will maintain an overall subsident pattern which along with the lack of deep layer moisture will maintain dry conditions. Lows tonight will range in the lower to mid 50s over inland areas, and in the upper 50s to mid 60s closer to the coast.
1201 PM MDT Tue May 12 2020 08z surface analysis had warm front from western MT into northeast CO. Water vapour had low amplitude ridge over the Rockies heading our way. Today/tonight, upper ridge shifts east pushing warm front into CWA. Degree of clearing behind warm front in question as upper trough swings from the central Rockies toward MT/WY this afternoon/evening.
A weak ridge will move over the area during the next 24 hours helping to stabilize conditions.
239 PM CDT Tue May 12 2020 The main warm front is set up well to our south in the southern plains through lower Mississippi Valley. In the end, most of the day should be dry, followed by clouds, somewhat cooler temperatures with showers toward late afternoon. Details: Wednesday night through the weekend: A stormy pattern with a deep trough in the southern Rockies, sw flow aloft and a nearly stationary frontal boundary across the area.
342 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020 Warmer and more humid weather will gradually return through the rest of this week and into the weekend.
Some guidance suggests fairly high QPF Wed AM, which still seems questionable given the suggested mid level short wave ridging forecast.
304 PM CDT Tue May 12 2020 Tonight & Wednesday: Tonight: Expect a quiet overnight as any residual rain showers linger along a northward lifting warm front across the Mid-South. The area will remain on the western edge of any departing zonal flow aloft & southerly flow from low-mid level ridge over the southeast & Florida Peninsula. With thermal profiles increasing into the low-teens @ 925mb, near normal highs are expected in the low-mid 80s.
coast with broad low pressure over NM/W TX. Temperatures in the lower to mid 80s areawide.
A dryline will develop to the south of this low through eastern New Mexico. There will be plenty of CAPE to work with, the low level moisture will be there. An upper level short wave trough will also move across the Panhandles during the afternoon which will help to provide shear and instability aloft. The thunderstorms will gradually move off to the east of our area during the evening as the short wave trough moves east.
Even the highest MUCAPES are under 100 J/KG in the far south on Wednesday, so the thunder potential exists, but is low.
Guidance diverges on where the northern extent of the shower shield will be; the forecast still targets the lower half of the forecast area with best chances, decreasing over the north.
228 PM MDT Tue May 12 2020 Areas of rain will continue to spread northeast across the region through tomorrow with low clouds and cooler conditions.
458 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020 Seasonably cold conditions will moderate to much warmer weather by the latter half of the week; however, that warmth will be accompanied by increasing humidity and rain chance. Otherwise, building high pressure will yield dry weather overall. High temperature should recover to about 10 degrees above yesterday's cold readings, but that will still leave the high approximately 15 degrees under the averages. Dry and cold weather can again be anticipated tonight with areas of freeze again on the ridges and north of PIT, and areas of frost over the remainder of the area.
340 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020 High pressure will slide east of the region later today. A warm front will lift northward across the Ohio Valley late Wednesday and overnight. Temperatures will warm into the lower 60s for most of the area. In the evening, a warm front will lift northward and the threat of showers will translate west.
251 PM CDT Tue May 12 2020 One more cold night with high pressure overhead and little in the way of clouds until late across central and northcentral Wisconsin. Large scale pattern change is beginning with longwave ridge building into the Northern Plains. By later afternoon, the real moisture plume arrives in the lower- levels, isentropically upgliding for more widespread shower development into evening.
/Tonight through Wednesday Night/ A warm front bisecting the region this afternoon has really made for quite the range in temperatures from north to south with mid to upper 50s currently across the Red River Valley of extreme NE Texas, SE Oklahoma and adjacent SW Arkansas. A warm day is expected areawide on Wednesday as the warm front will be shifting well north of the region. High temperatures will range from the lower to mid 80s with only a slight chance for a few isolated showers or stray storm, mainly during the afternoon peak heating.
That said have a good 6 hours of sun left so kept the lower 50s we have for highs. There will be increasing high clouds later this afternoon and evening, but not enough to dampen temp recovery and some warmer locations may approach 60.
Model soundings indicate that the low- levels will remain dry throughout the day. The low-levels will remain relatively dry according to model soundings. Light winds will continue with high pressure across the region. The high shifts a bit to the northeast late in the TAF cycle as a warm front lifts northward across the Lower Mississippi River Valley.
848 AM PDT Tue May 12 2020 Today will be cloudy and cooler with increasing chances for showers.
410 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020 Seasonably cold conditions will moderate to much warmer weather by the latter half of the week; however, that warmth will be accompanied by increasing humidity and rain chance. Otherwise, building high pressure will yield dry weather overall. High temperature should recover to about 10 degrees above yesterday's cold readings, but that will still leave the high approximately 15 degrees under the averages. Dry and cold weather can again be anticipated tonight with areas of freeze again on the ridges and north of PIT, and areas of frost over the remainder of the area.
157 PM MDT Tue May 12 2020 Water vapor shows flat upper ridge building into the northern plains with disturbed zonal flow extending westward into the eastern Pacific. Surface analysis shows large pressure gradient across the western Dakotas with lee trof advancing eastward. Edge of low clouds aligns well with warm front beginning to lift into southwest Campbell county. Wednesday, frontal boundary lifts through the cwfa with breezy northwest winds and much warmer temps (60s to lower 70s).
121 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020 High pressure through Wednesday.
Currently, broad ridge across the Northern Plains with an embedded S/WV impulse pushing east into the Dakotas above a baroclinic zone. Some light snow was reported earlier far southwest where sfc temperatures were only in the low/mid 30s.
245 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020 One more potentially frosty night will be seen tonight before much warmer air starts to arrive. Dry high pressure will generally dominate through Wednesday. The high clouds will also act to insulate the area some overnight, and low temperatures should not be as cold as last night. Wednesday will remain dry, but as high pressure shifts eastward, the flow will become southeasterly and moisture and clouds will increase further. Rain may start moving in from the west on Wednesday night as a warm front moves into the region.
will move east out into the Atlantic Ocean during the second half of the week, but continue to ridge west into north Florida keeping the rather breezy easterly flow across the area.
The upper level low that is responsible for the return to unsettled weather has stalled off of the Pacific Northwest Coast due to the formation of an Omega Block overnight. Current upper air analysis shows a large ridge of high pressure centered over far northern British Columbia/southern Northwest Territories, with the aforementioned low to our west and an area of low pressure on the lee side of the Canadian Rockies in Alberta. After a weekend with temps in the 80s, highs will be around normal for mid May with readings in upper 50s to low 60s in the lowlands and 40s to 50s in the mountains. Upper level low offshore will keep southerly flow across the area today with scattered showers.
At the surface, high pressure will maintain a grip on the Southeast as the center of the high migrates off the Atlantic coast through Wednesday afternoon.
1256 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020 Seasonably cold conditions will moderate to much warmer weather by the latter half of the week; however, that warmth will be accompanied by increasing humidity and rain chance. Otherwise, building high pressure will yield dry weather overall. High temperature should recover to about 10 degrees above yesterday's cold readings, but that will still leave the high approximately 15 degrees under the averages. Dry and cold weather can again be anticipated tonight with areas of freeze again on the ridges and north of PIT, and areas of frost over the remainder of the area.
404 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020 Seasonably cold conditions will moderate to much warmer weather by the latter half of the week; however, that warmth will be accompanied by increasing humidity and rain chance. Otherwise, building high pressure will yield dry weather overall. High temperature should recover to about 10 degrees above yesterday's cold readings, but that will still leave the high approximately 15 degrees under the averages. Dry and cold weather can again be anticipated tonight with areas of freeze again on the ridges and north of PIT, and areas of frost over the remainder of the area.
Dry and slightly warmer weather can be found across north MS. Temps have climbed into the lower 70s across the very southern portion of the forecast area including Tupelo, which sits at a relatively pleasant 73F. The warm front will begin lifting north tonight into Wednesday morning with the area of rain gradually shifting north of the area, into MO/KY, by Wednesday afternoon.
Quiet conditions expected tonight as an area of high pressure north of the area helps keeps the weather dry. This will keep low temperatures tonight a few degrees warmer than this morning and generally in the mid 50s (in the low 60s along the coast).
149 PM CDT Tue May 12 2020 One more cold night with high pressure overhead and little in the way of clouds until late across central and northcentral Wisconsin. Large scale pattern change is beginning with longwave ridge building into the Northern Plains. By later afternoon, the real moisture plume arrives in the lower- levels, isentropically upgliding for more widespread shower development into evening.
1247 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020 One more potentially frosty night will be seen tonight before much warmer air starts to arrive. Frosty morning across much of the area with many locations generally along/east of SR 13/US 131 are seeing temperatures in the lower 30s and several spots have dipped to near or even below 30. Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 50s (cooler along Lk MI). Continues to look like frost risk for NE half to maybe 2/3rds of the area remains, although most locations should stay above freezing.
Temperatures will be somewhat difficult to pinpoint thanks to the low stratus, and potential for clearing along an inverted frontal boundary in central South Dakota. Feel the raw NAM/GFS are too cold and have trended towards slightly warmer guidance, especially west.
Light winds today as high pressure moves into NW MN. There will be increasing high clouds later this afternoon and evening, but not enough to dampen temp recovery and some warmer locations may approach 60.
311 PM CDT Tue May 12 2020 A warm front accompanied by dry air is currently across Colorado this afternoon. The RAP model shows this fog affecting the highlands with lower visibility than the valleys. Continued warm air advection, increasing cloudiness and a chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night would suggest the short term model blend would be the preferred forecast tool vs the cooler guidance blend.
Some snow has been observed in the higher elevations of the Little Rockies with a dusting of snow on the ground currently. -Mottice Low pressure will be moving across southern Montana today with a band of precipitation spreading north into the region. A little snow may occur over the higher terrain areas before temperatures warm later today. Winds will also be increasing as the low moves into the state. Precipitation will linger across the region tonight and into Wednesday as an upper low swings south from Canada along the HiLine.
High temperatures today will be 10-15 degrees cooler than yesterday, or near normal.
On Wednesday, warm front will begin to slowly lift northward across the region. Depending on where the warm front ends up at by Wednesday afternoon/evening, could see some isolated strong to severe storms with the main threat being large hail due to the steep mid level lapse rates, increasing MUCAPE, and sufficient shear. For now highs on Wednesday will be in the 60s, but if warm front slows down even more, highs may need to be adjusted downward. By late Wednesday night, main cold front will begin to move into northwestern MO with best chances of showers and storms across the far northern portions of the forecast area. It will be quite a bit warmer with lows only in the upper 50s to low 60s.
As moisture transport and low level warm air advection increase throughout the day ahead of the low, rain will spread across the area, especially during the afternoon and evening, as the column saturates from the dry airmass that has been in place the past couple of days.
1254 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020 Cool and tranquil weather will accompany high pressure today. Moisture and temperatures are forecast to increase Wednesday ahead of a warm front approaching from the southwest.
Deep layer anticyclonic flow will translate over the Lower Peninsula for the balance of the overnight hours supporting strong high pressure approaching 1030mb in the Detroit area by 12z; the all-time record for May being 1036mb.
128 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020 Cool high pressure builds across the region through tonight, then becomes centered offshore on Wednesday.
132 PM PDT Tue May 12 2020 Storm system continues to impact Central California today by bringing cooler temperatures into the San Joaquin Valley and strong winds through Kern County.
914 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020 Seasonably cold conditions will moderate to much warmer weather by the latter half of the week. With high pressure passing just south of the CWA overnight, a clear sky and diminishing wind are expected.
401 PM CDT Tue May 12 2020 Tightening of pressure gradient between modifying continental high pressure area centered over the Mid-Atlantic States and the undercutting trade wind flow providing breezy easterly winds this afternoon in response to baroclinic return from last frontal passage.
927 PM CDT Tue May 12 2020 Warm front, currently located just south of the Red River this evening, will begin to lift north overnight.
331 PM MDT Tue May 12 2020 Current surface obs and Visible Satellite loop across the region shows some low stratus clouds hanging on across portions of western Nebraska with cooler temperatures observed compared to areas further west.
This rain is occurring downstream of a weak, southern stream trough coupled with deep-layer warm advection. This warm advection is progged to decrease after midnight as a surface warm front lifts north across the CWA. Winds will shift from the south as the warm front passes and a few rumbles of thunder are possible along/north of the boundary overnight near the MO/KY borders. Dry and slightly warmer weather can be found across north MS. Temps have climbed into the lower 70s across the very southern portion of the forecast area including Tupelo, which sits at a relatively pleasant 73F. The warm front will begin lifting north tonight into Wednesday morning with the area of rain gradually shifting north of the area, into MO/KY, by Wednesday afternoon.
306 PM MDT Tue May 12 2020 The zonal flow pattern will remain in place across the lower 48 during this short term period. Temperatures will be just a bit cooler up north due to the increase in clouds.
Periods of showers will continue to lift northward out of Arkansas this evening and into tonight as moist isentropic ascent glides north of a pseudo- warm front. Attention then turns to later Wednesday morning and early afternoon as the warm front begins to lift into southern Missouri.
830 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020 High pressure will extend over the southern middle Atlantic and Carolinas through Wednesday, then move offshore to near Bermuda through the end of the week. Heights increase aloft on Wednesday as an upper-level ridge builds to our east. Highs will range from the mid-60s over the northern Piedmont to the low 70s in the southern Piedmont, Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain. The overall pattern late this week will feature high pressure centered offshore NW of Bermuda.
653 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020 High pressure will be anchored directly over Se Mi tonight. Deep layer anticyclonic flow will translate over the Lower Peninsula for the balance of the overnight hours supporting strong high pressure approaching 1030mb in the Detroit area by 12z; the all-time record for May being 1036mb.
737 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020 High pressure will slide east of the region later today. A warm front will lift northward across the Ohio Valley late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Temperatures will warm into the lower 60s for most of the area. In the evening, a warm front will lift northward and the threat of showers will translate west.
Increasingly (albeit broad) cyclonic flow aloft over the Western CONUS /WSW flow atop the Rockies/ and a diurnally enhanced SFC-H85 baroclinic zone (on the western periphery of the receding airmass) will aid in the development of a lee cyclone in eastern Colorado during the day. In the absence of discernible/focused upper forcing, significant uncertainty persists with regard to (1) the timing (and extent to which) the shallow/stable airmass will mix-out/recede and (2) the precise evolution of the lee cyclone.
628 PM CDT Tue May 12 2020 A warm front accompanied by dry air is currently across Colorado this afternoon. The RAP model shows this fog affecting the highlands with lower visibility than the valleys. Continued warm air advection, increasing cloudiness and a chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night would suggest the short term model blend would be the preferred forecast tool vs the cooler guidance blend.
730 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020 Warmer and more humid weather will gradually return through the rest of this week and into the weekend.
1007 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020 High pressure will build into Pennsylvania Wednesday.
723 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020 High pressure will build into Pennsylvania Wednesday.
On Wednesday, warm front will begin to slowly lift northward across the region. Depending on where the warm front ends up by Wednesday afternoon/evening, could see some isolated strong to severe storms with the main threat being large hail due to the steep mid level lapse rates, increasing MUCAPE, and sufficient shear. For now highs on Wednesday will be in the 60s, but if warm front slows down even more, highs may need to be adjusted downward. By late Wednesday night, main cold front will begin to move into northwestern MO with best chances of showers and storms across the far northern portions of the forecast area. It will be quite a bit warmer with lows only in the upper 50s to low 60s.