Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT. N TO NW FLOW BEHIND THE LOW WL BE FAIRLY STRONG OVR SOME AREAS. THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE SANGRES AND WET MTNS WL PROBABLY ALSO SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.
250 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY IS PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA AS A RIDGE ALOFT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED AT THE SFC. EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TODAY WITH MUCH OF THE AREA REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL SNEAK BACK INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL PLATEAU LATE TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY BREAKS DOWN AND PUSHES EAST.
TEMPS LOOK TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AS WELL WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST MEXICO THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RIDGE IS SUPPORTING A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH AND ON THE WEST SIDE OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WILL KEEP PLEASANT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA AND WEAKEN AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS FLORIDA.
ALL OF THIS STILL BEING CAUSED BY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT HELPING TO SUPPRESS THE ACTIVITY AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD. THE OTHER CHANGE WILL BE THE SLIGHTLY COOLER FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THOSE WEST OF I-65. CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP THAT HALF OF THE AREA IN THE LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON VS THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR EVERYONE ELSE.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FINALLY BREAKING DOWN AS CONVECTION FROM AN OVERNIGHT SYSTEM IS MOVING NNE TOWARDS THE AREA. BUT DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS MOVE IN COULD DAMPEN THE HIGHS FOR TODAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD COURTESY OF A WEAKENING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.
/ISSUED 336 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015/ IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE STRONG UPPER LOW HAS RESULTED IN CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE DRYLINE THAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS FAR ERN NM. EVEN MORE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY CATCHES UP TO THE DRYLINE AND PUSHES SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE SHORT RANGE MODELS STILL FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
MORE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLOODING PROBLEMS THIS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN COLORADO AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
STILL COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP AS WEAK TROUGH WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND NE FL. LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. 850 MB TEMPS ARE AT LEAST A DEG WARMER SO WE SHOULD SEE HIGHER MAX TEMPS UNDER GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS FCST IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND.
/ISSUED 1115 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015/ HAVE CLEANED UP THE GRIDS TO REDUCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND CONFINE THEM TO OK PNHDL AND ERN TX PNHDL FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING UPPER LEVEL LOW INVADES THE REGION. /ISSUED 440 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015/ COLD FRONT FROM YESTERDAY WAS REINFORCED BY OUTFLOW. AND IS IN THE PROCESS OF BEING OVERTAKEN BY INCOMING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THREAT ENDS ABRUPTLY BY 7 PM WHEN MORE STABLE AIR ARRIVES WITH PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
MOIST FLOW BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THIS STRONG GRADIENT IS THE RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER JUST EAST OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL. BUT THE LOW CENTER WILL MOVE A BIT EAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS. THE ONE POSSIBLE DEVIATION FROM THAT WOULD BE IF THE LOW CENTER OVER MEXICO WERE TO MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BRINGING DRIER AIR WITH IT.
ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD NORTH OF THE LOW SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN FA BY MORNING AND MAINTAINED HIGH POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DIMINISHING NORTHWARD.
Should such activity fail to materialize and allow for decent sunshine in the afternoon, then instability/shear profiles would be supportive of a broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front moving in from the west.
KEEPING HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. AND THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDING FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL CONUS. WESTERN HALF OF CWA WILL PUSH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR HIGHS TODAY AND SUNDAY.
THE COLD UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY. A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING UPPER LOW SUNDAY.
S/WV IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MY SOUTHERN ONE THIRD. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH FROM CANADA ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA HAS LIMITED THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RADAR RETURNS. SAME STORY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE KEEPING MOST OF MY AREA DRY. INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY SNOW REMAIN IN PLACE WITH UPPER CUT-OFF LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEASTERN ND. H85 TEMPS REMAIN AROUND -2C TO -3C WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SURFACE TEMPS HOVERING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUNDING SUB-FREEZING.
103 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015 STRONG UPPER CLOSED LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL INDUCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE TODAY WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WOULD PUT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL MORE OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET APPEARS MAXIMIZED. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT/DRYLINE SHIFTS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA.
216 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2015 A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN US BRINGING A LOT OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN OVER MEXICO AND THE MID WEST. OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PENETRATING INTO THE SE US IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. HOWEVER, THE LOW MOISTURE IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
330 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE NORTHLAND DRY NORTH TO NE FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ON TRACK TOWARDS MINNESOTA. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO THE THE RELATIVELY DRY FLOW FROM CANADA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
626 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHWEST OHIO TONIGHT AND LIKELY MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BE FILLING AS IT LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SQUASHING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS BROUGHT US THE UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER OF LATE.
1104 AM PDT SAT MAY 9 2015 High pressure will build into the region this weekend bringing relatively light winds, mostly clear skies, and warming temperatures.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. BEST GUESS IS THAT THE COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM EASTERN MO ACROSS NORTHERN OK WITH IT WASHING OUT OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE SPILLING INTO THE AREA.
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SUPPRESSED OVER SOUTH/S-CENTRAL FL INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING PREVAILING S/SW FLOW IN PLACE.
1135 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015 A WARM AND HUMID DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH A COLD FRONT WORKING INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. SUSPECT THAT THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS OF DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND POSSIBLY SCRAPE THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR FROM HURON TO BROOKINGS TO MARSHALL MINNESOTA EARLY THIS EVENING. ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET GRADUALLY INCREASING. BY EARLY EVENING THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS TOWARDS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND WILL EITHER HELP SUSTAIN ANY ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT CAN DEVELOP IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA OR POSSIBLY ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP.
RAPID WARMUP STILL ON TRACK FOR SATURDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING AND AMPLE SUNSHINE.
709 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015 A WARM AND HUMID DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH A COLD FRONT WORKING INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. SUSPECT THAT THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS OF DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND POSSIBLY SCRAPE THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR FROM HURON TO BROOKINGS TO MARSHALL MINNESOTA EARLY THIS EVENING. ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET GRADUALLY INCREASING. BY EARLY EVENING THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS TOWARDS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND WILL EITHER HELP SUSTAIN ANY ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT CAN DEVELOP IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA OR POSSIBLY ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. IT IS REASONABLE TO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING ON THE TROUGH ALTHOUGH THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER IS RATHER LOW AND THE DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOK ONLY HAS CENTRAL NC IN GENERAL THUNDER AT THIS POINT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S ONCE AGAIN.
1218 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT DRAWING A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE REGION.
1140 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. IT WILL COOLER AND DRIER AND BECOME WINDY BY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FAR NORTH NEAR THE UPPER LOW.
1000 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDES WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT CAUSING SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. COLD FRONT IN VICINITY EARLY IN WORK WEEK. ITS TURNING INTO A STICKY NIGHT OUT THERE WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS. WHICH IS OF CONCERN DUE TO THE LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOLLOWING THIS PAST WEEKS ACTIVE PATTERN.
AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SITUATED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH CONTROLS THE WEATHER SITUATION.
ANY TSTM COMPLEX SHOULD MOVE SEWD EARLY SAT MORNING AND BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE HIGH DEW POINTS. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY FIRST ISSUE IS TIMING AND POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
FOR 06Z FORECAST UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MCS'S WORKING ACROSS TOP OF RIDGE.
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS OVERNIGHT. A LARGE ANTICYCLONE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER TONIGHT.
THE WEATHER PATTERN FEATURED A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND NEW MEXICO. AS THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHIFTS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
A BROADER SCALE TROUGH IS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO. FOR TONIGHT, A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS BY MORNING. VERY WARM AIR WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTH.
704 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY.
HI PRESS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN SATURDAY. /ISSUED 339 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015/ ZONAL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PIVOT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST.
958 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE A RUN AT SPREADING NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS WEEKEND.
AS THE DEATH RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS ENTRENCHED FROM THE SRN PLAINS E ACROSS OUR REGION TO THE GULF COAST STATES. WITH MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER SE LA/SRN MS/AL ALONG A WEAKNESS MIGRATING S BENEATH THE RIDGE CENTER. GIVEN THAT 02Z TEMPS REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S UNDER LIGHT SSE WINDS. /ISSUED 655 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015/ UPPER LVL RIDGE KEEPING AREA IN VFR SKC THRU AT LEAST 18/15Z AS DAYTIME CUMULUS QUICKLY DIMINISHING.
1116 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015 UPPER LVL RIDGE KEEPING AREA IN VFR SKC THRU AT LEAST 18/15Z. AS THE DEATH RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS ENTRENCHED FROM THE SRN PLAINS E ACROSS OUR REGION TO THE GULF COAST STATES. WITH MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER SE LA/SRN MS/AL ALONG A WEAKNESS MIGRATING S BENEATH THE RIDGE CENTER. GIVEN THAT 02Z TEMPS REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S UNDER LIGHT SSE WINDS.
/ISSUED 343 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2015/ (Tonight and Saturday) Upper level ridge still parked across East Texas and riding westward across Texas. Visible satellite shows a nearly cloud free West Central Texas late this afternoon, with temperatures climbing into the low to mid 90s. More of the same for the next 24 hours, with the ridge not moving.
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LATE NIGHT BR REDUCING VSBY TO IFR LEVELS AT MOB/BFM GIVEN THE HIGHER GROUND MOISTURE FROM HEAVIER RAINS THAT PASSED ACROSS THIS EVENING. UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
808 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT DRAWING A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE REGION.
942 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS COMBINES WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S.
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST. HUSTON NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROF MOVES THRU THE PAC NW INTO ID BY SAT MORN. A WEAK UPPER LOW FORMS OVER ID ON SATURDAY. PRECIP DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
812 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015 LOST THE SIGNAL OF THE RADIOSONDE 89055FT ABOVE THE NORTH FOURTH OF THE CAUSEWAY BRIDGE. QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE WAS CONCENTRATED FROM THE SFC TO 18KFT WITH A FREEZING LEVEL OF 15694FT. /ISSUED 353 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015/ HOT WEATHER CONTINUES AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS HOLD OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF STATES. AT THE SURFACE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS EAST WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WHICH CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF AN AREA OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE LUMBERING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE COUPLED WITH 40-55KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR WILL RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE CAP FURTHER ERODES AND AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. COLD TEMPS ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL INCREASE ELEVATED CAPE AFTER 00Z SO WILL GO WITH A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH TONIGHT.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. WITH THE HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND SCATTERED RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF AN AREA OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE LUMBERING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE COUPLED WITH 40-55KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR WILL RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE CAP FURTHER ERODES AND AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. COLD TEMPS ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL INCREASE ELEVATED CAPE AFTER 00Z SO WILL GO WITH A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH TONIGHT.
WRAP-AROUND CIRCULATION FROM SASKATCHEWAN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SEND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE BORDER AND SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THEN DECREASE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES FURTHER EAST.
647 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015 UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
756 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG A LEE-SIDE TROUGH. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SHALLOW BECAUSE OF UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT MAY ALSO SETTLE INTO THE FORECAST AREA MID WEEK.
MOSTLY VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN.
1016 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT DRAWING A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE REGION.
1135 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015 NORTH TEXAS RESIDES BENEATH THE WESTERN HALF OF A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. /ISSUED 213 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015/ UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST U. THE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE TROPICAL MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE WEST COAST. THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOW THAT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SHIFT WEST OF THE REGION AROUND THE 25TH OF JULY. IF THIS OCCURS IT SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MAYBE EVEN SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES BEFORE THE END OF THE MONTH.
701 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE A RUN AT SPREADING NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. VERY MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE NOTED TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS TO THE EAST. HRRR HAS INDICATED STORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE LEE TROUGH OVER THE SE PLAINS. OTHER STORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLD TO SCATTERED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
1036 PM MDT FRI JUL 17 2015 BEEFED UP WIND GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS FOR TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT. LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE NOTED TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS TO THE EAST. HRRR HAS INDICATED STORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE LEE TROUGH OVER THE SE PLAINS. OTHER STORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLD TO SCATTERED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
/ISSUED 647 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015/ UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
730 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDES WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT CAUSING SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. COLD FRONT IN VICINITY EARLY IN WORK WEEK. WHICH IS OF CONCERN DUE TO THE LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOLLOWING THIS PAST WEEKS ACTIVE PATTERN.
1053 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U. WITH STRATUS CLOUDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG A LEE-SIDE TROUGH. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SHALLOW BECAUSE OF UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT MAY ALSO SETTLE INTO THE FORECAST AREA MID WEEK.
832 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015 MUCH MORE HUMID THIS EVENING VERSUS YESTERDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
734 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS COMBINES WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S.
SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW OVER MONTANA WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO SAT AM BUT APPEARS MOISTURE LIMITED AND STRATUS FORMATION LOOKS ON THE LOW SIDE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A BIT COOLER THAN EXPERIENCED TODAY.
/ISSUED 704 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015/ A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY.
/ISSUED 339 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015/ DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS SE TX MAINLY ALONG THE COAST NORTHWARD THROUGH HOUSTON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH LIMIT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SKC TO A FEW CU DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A STRONG UPPER HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE AREA. /ISSUED 213 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015/ UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST U. THE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE TROPICAL MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE WEST COAST. THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOW THAT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SHIFT WEST OF THE REGION AROUND THE 25TH OF JULY. IF THIS OCCURS IT SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MAYBE EVEN SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES BEFORE THE END OF THE MONTH.
642 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 339 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015/ A HOT SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PREVAILS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE QUITE WARM THIS EVENING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING SLOWLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE TN VALLEY WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH AN EXPANSIVE BUT MODERATELY COMPRESSED RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
900 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND THE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH FL. 15 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY.
FOR 00Z FORECAST UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH SURFACE FRONT STRUNG OUT WEST TO EAST FROM A LOW IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL KEEP MCS'S CONTINUING TO RUN ACROSS TOP OF RIDGE FROM CENTRAL PLAINS INTO GREAT LAKES.
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HOLDS STRONG FROM TEXAS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US WITH SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE.
/ISSUED 353 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015/ UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING A BIT FURTHER EAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS SOME TOMORROW BUT REMAINS CENTERED TO THE EAST.
Convection has blossomed along the cold front, now pushing across northern portions of I-65. The HRRR continues to show strengthening of the line of storms right along the cold front into the evening hours. Temperatures will fall in the wake of the cold front overnight into the mid 30s to lower 40s. Despite the low temps, frost formation is not expected as winds will remain elevated overnight. Highs tomorrow will be much cooler, in the lower to mid 50s.
738 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 A LOW IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO MAINE FRIDAY PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
SE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SW BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU KGUY AROUND 21Z TO 22Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SE TONIGHT AND THEN SW BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU KGUY AROUND 21Z FRIDAY. SLIGHT RIDGING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
1242 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 A LOW IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO MAINE FRIDAY PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
946 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 A LOW IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO MAINE FRIDAY PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
1005 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND BRING A COOLER AIRMASS TO END THE WORK WEEK. EASTERLY FLOW WITH COOLER AIR ACROSS THE FAR EAST. FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEG COOLER THAN TODAY OVER ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S THRU THE LOWER 40S. WITH THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN COLORADO CWA COUNTIES DUE TO THE SNOW PACK FROM YESTERDAY. SINCE THE TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND WITH GROUND TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE FREEZING THE SNOW PACK IS MELTING FAIRLY WELL TODAY.