Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Windy conditions will develop today as an area of low pressure moves through the northern Great Basin. An area of low pressure moving through the Pacific Northwest will help bring strengthening southwest winds to the region today. Today is expected to be the last day of above normal temperatures as a cold front will move through the forecast area Friday bringing temperatures to below normal readings.
Much cooler and unsettled weather moves over the area this morning, increasing chances for showers. An upper-level low pressure system settles in over Central MT, with colder air aloft filtering into the area. Confidence is high that there will be accumulating snowfall over this area, but confidence remains lower with regards to accumulation amounts given the time of year and warmer road conditions. Those recreating in the high country however, including higher elevation areas of Glacier Park, should be prepared for wintry conditions. The overall pattern remains unsettled this weekend as the main upper low exits but additional disturbances move east across the region in its wake.
-Mottice Upper low over western Montana will slow drift across the state today.
Rain cooled areas were in the lower 70s over central Louisiana. High pressure will build back in aloft with very warm temperatures expected across the western part of interior southeast Texas where a Heat Advisory has been posted this afternoon.
At the surface, trof of weak low pressure extends from western ND south into eastern CO. Weak high pressure resides across the Northern Rockies. Temperatures across the forecast area at 3am range from the mid 40s in northeast WY, to the lower 60s in south central SD. Sharp upper trof will continue to push east today as large closed low settles into the Pacific Northwest. Rainfall and surface trof of low pressure will continue to shift east this morning, with relatively nice weather again through much of the day.
Most sites should reach the lower 90s this afternoon. /22/ Prior discussion below: Today and Tonight: A mid-level trough passing over the region has helped to maintain several MCS around the region overnight.
135 PM PDT Thu Jun 20 2019 A developing low pressure system over the western states will bring cooler weather, more clouds, drizzle and light showers near the coast, and strong winds in the mountains and deserts tonight into Friday. As the low pressure fades this weekend, there will be a warming trend and less extensive clouds in the coastal basin nights and mornings. A low pressure trough over the Pacific Northwest will dive southeast across the western states tonight and Friday. As the trough over the West moves east, some offshore flow will develop and higher pressure will bring in subsiding air. A low pressure trough over the Northwest Coast will develop along with a high pressure ridge over New Mexico.
A cold front will cross the region this afternoon and tonight, bringing substantially cooler temperatures to the area Friday into this weekend. It is about to feel a bit more like spring than summer over the next few days as a stronger than typical cold front will move through the state today. Additional advisories are in effect for strong northwesterly to westerly winds behind the cold front across the Great Salt Lake Desert, western Uinta Basin and northern Utah County later this afternoon.
Mostly sunny and pleasant conditions should continue Friday with highs a few degrees warmer than today. A mid level short wave trough, combined with isentropic lift from warm advection ahead of an approaching surface system, will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms to the area starting late Friday night.
219 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019 A weak ridge pattern is expected to continue moving into the area through the remainder of today along with a warm front pushing northward.
The high dew points and expected increase in low level southerly flow tonight will lead to very warm morning temperatures tomorrow, with a few favored spots flirting with 80.
The showers and thunderstorms moving across the Mid-South currently are associated with an upper level trough that will push east of the area by this afternoon bringing northwest flow aloft.
Weak high pressure then builds in tonight into Friday with dry conditions and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. A high degree of residual boundary layer moisture and continued deformation forcing on the backside of low pressure will keep chances for iso-sct showers in the forecast into the late afternoon and early evening across mainly our nw OH zones. There remains a signal for patchy fog/low stratus development otherwise into our IN/MI zones later tonight as weak low level ridge edges in from the west.
Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough over eastern MT. Upper trough will rotate north and east today and tonight.
High temperatures in the low 80s to around 90. Low temperatures range from the low to mid 50s in far eastern Colorado to the mid 60s in Norton and Graham counties.
Continued southerly flow ahead of the front range low, along with an upper ridge moving overhead, will lead to a hot and humid day for Friday. Expect highs in the low 90s with dew points in the 70s, leading to heat indices topping out in the upper 90s.
Canadian high pressure is expected to bring dry weather today through Friday, along with seasonal temperatures. Highs both days will be in the lower to middle 70s, with 60s near Lake Michigan due to an easterly component to the wind.
324 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019 A low pressure system will push across the state later today and tonight. After the low exits tonight into tomorrow, a pleasant and dry weekend is in store.
259 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019 A low pressure system will push across the state later today and tonight. After the low exits tonight into tomorrow, a pleasant and dry weekend is in store.
Cold front will move through the area this afternoon and evening.
1235 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019 A low pressure system will push across the state later today and tonight. After the low exits tonight into tomorrow, a pleasant and dry weekend is in store.
The inversion has deepened over 3000' today and could be in excess of 4000' by tomorrow as a trough passes by to the north.
Anomalously deep upper trough swinging through our CWA today, and not completely out of our area Friday.
Morning update: The region is under a broad upper-level low pressure system.
When combined with cooler temperatures aloft than today chances for thunderstorms late afternoon and evening increases with 20-30 percent PoPs east of the dryline looking fine.
Mother nature has offered a reminder that it's still June with some cooler readings before the first day of summer tomorrow. A broad upper low has dug into the Pacific Northwest cooling things down considerably and bringing scattered showers to areas north.
This will act to dampen the thermal ridge and southwesterly mixed layer winds. Zonal flow in the mid and upper levels will shift to a more SW flow aloft near the end of the short term as a longwave trough anchors itself in the Pacific NW.
/Tonight through Friday Night/ Relatively quiet upcoming short term pd on tap for our region, as upper ridge axis passes ovhd. Abundant low level moisture both as a result of recent rains and sfc flow from the Gulf of Mexico will keep our dew points in the low to mid 70s this pd. Abundant sunshine will allow our temps Friday to reach into the low to mid 90s areawide.
The 00 UTC global suite favors an upper level low across northeast Montana on Friday, with scattered to numerous rain showers and embedded thunderstorms across central and northwest North Dakota in low level moisture transport and ascent along isentropic surfaces.
232 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019 The 850 mb theta-e ridge will continue to work into the area this evening, helping to drive and area of showers with embedded thunderstorms eastward across the area.
Any storm that does develop will have to break through a strong cap as upper level ridging continues to build across the area.
Currently, a surface cold front is dropping south across the area, shifting winds from the south to the northwest and north.
115 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019 Warmer temperatures and increasing humidity will build across the region today.
This activity wl cont to shift to the E this mrng, as the main upper trof moves thru the region.
409 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019 A low pressure system will push across the state later today and tonight. After the low exits tonight into tomorrow, a pleasant and dry weekend is in store.
This weekend the chances for showers and thunderstorms will be on increase as trof in the west begins progressing east.
845 AM PDT Thu Jun 20 2019 A developing low pressure system over the western states will bring cooler weather, more clouds, drizzle and light showers near the coast, and strong winds in the mountains and deserts tonight into Friday. As the low pressure fades this weekend, there will be a warming trend and less extensive clouds in the coastal basin nights and mornings. A low pressure trough over the Pacific Northwest will dive southeast across the western states tonight and Friday. As the trough over the West moves east, some offshore flow will develop and higher pressure will bring in subsiding air. A low pressure trough over the Northwest Coast will develop along with a high pressure ridge over New Mexico.
At the surface, an area of low pressure is situated across northern Indiana/northern Ohio with a cold front moving through the Ohio and Tennessee valley. Main threats would likely be damaging winds and possibly hail, although freezing levels heights should be fairly high. Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 70 91 73 / 40 20 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 68 86 71 / 80 40 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 78 67 86 71 / 70 20 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 64 81 64 / 80 40 10 40.
There are still a couple showers/weak thunderstorms working north and east out of the far eastern/northeasternmost forecast zones this afternoon underneath a slow moving upper low circulation heading in the same direction. Later tonight, convection is supposed to move east/northeast off the higher plains/front range. Meanwhile, Friday night in the cooler/drier post-frontal airmass, could be looking at some areas of central/north central South Dakota falling off into the 40s to around 50 degrees.
The cold low pressure system, currently overtaking north-central Idaho and western Montana, is creating an increasingly unstable atmosphere. A secondary lobe of concentrated low pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere is forecast to round the parent low as it shifts over Eastern Montana and produce an area of heavier precipitation across NW Montana Friday afternoon. This may result in additional snow across the higher terrain and further necessitate an extension of the ongoing Winter Weather Advisory.
Will add slight chance POP's into the forecast (Friday through Thursday) Upper flow pattern will become more southwest this weekend as an upper trough develops in the West.
457 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019 A low pressure system will push across the state later today and tonight. After the low exits tonight into tomorrow, a pleasant and dry weekend is in store.
Issued by National Weather Service Duluth MN 657 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019 The 850 mb theta-e ridge will continue to work into the area this evening, helping to drive and area of showers with embedded thunderstorms eastward across the area.
A cold front will continue to move south across the area tonight, and will bring substantially cooler temperatures to the area Friday into this weekend.
A weak ridge pattern is expected to continue moving into the area through the remainder of today along with a warm front pushing northward.
Expect near normal daytime temperatures through Friday, followed by moderating temperatures this weekend as a low pressure system moves north of the area.
In addition, surface dew points south of Interstate 20 were running in the upper 70s despite temperatures climbing into the lower 90s. Models agree that the southwest two thirds of our CWA will maintain mid to upper 70 dew points Friday when temperatures climb back into the lower 90s.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 90 72 89 / 30 10 30 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 86 69 86 / 30 10 40 50 Oak Ridge, TN 67 88 69 86 / 30 10 40 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 81 63 83 / 50 0 50 60.
722 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019 A slow moving storm system will push across the state overnight Friday will be cooler and drier, and the pleasant conditions will continue through the weekend. Convection is increasing over western Pa in response to the approaching North-South cold front which is just nearing the PA/OH border. The front is slated to move very slowly with the upper trough supporting additional showers well into the overnight and even into early Friday morning.
Early afternoon surface analysis shows low pressure over southeast Lower MI with a cold front that extend south through western OH and eastern KY. Northwest surface flow behind the front has dried out the air mass over central IN this afternoon as dew points have lowered into the low 60s with upper 50s upstream over IL and IA. Given the clearing and the lighter winds with weak high pressure and short wave ridging aloft, would expect patchy fog and visibilities less than a mile especially near waterways and rural areas.
This wave looks weaker than the one today, and the supporting upper low will have moved much further off to the east, so believe that coverage of showers on Friday will be less than we saw on Thursday.
Windy conditions will continue into this evening as an area of low pressure moves through the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies.
722 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019 Showers and thunderstorm chances will end with the passage of the cold front tonight. Cooler and drier weather finally arrives Friday in the wake of the cold front. A ridge will build eastward into the upper Ohio river valley beginning late Friday through the weekend.
913 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019 The surface pressure gradient continues to tighten across the Southern Plains this evening and this will become evident overnight in the form of increasing low level stratus, warmer overnight low temperatures tonight and stronger southerly winds on Friday. Dewpoints only mixed down into the lower to middle 70s across most areas today and much of the same is expected on Friday. Beyond 21/15z, look for the winds to pick up with sustained late morning and afternoon winds ranging from 10-15kts with much higher gusts, approaching 25kts again with the higher winds noted across our NE TX terminal locations.
Biggest issue tomorrow looks to be another round of elevated srly sfc winds thanks to a tightening gradient with low pressure deepening over the srn Plains as well as the elevated flow aloft mixing down. This weekend the chances for showers and thunderstorms will be on increase as trof in the west begins progressing east.
657 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019 Showers and thunderstorm chances will end with the passage of the cold front tonight. Cooler and drier weather finally arrives Friday in the wake of the cold front. A ridge will build eastward into the upper Ohio river valley beginning late Friday through the weekend.
902 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019 Skies are mostly clear across the forecast area this evening with temperatures in the lower 70s to mid 80s.
High pressure ridge south of Florida will keep a southwest to west wind flow at 15 knots or less over the coastal waters through Friday. Over the weekend weak high pressure sets up over the eastern Gulf of Mexico with rather light northwest winds, except increasing some with the sea breeze each afternoon.
1047 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019 A slow moving storm system will push across the state overnight Friday will be cooler and drier, and the pleasant conditions will continue through the weekend. Convection is increasing over western Pa in response to the approaching North-South cold front which is just nearing the PA/OH border. The front is slated to move very slowly with the upper trough supporting additional showers well into the overnight and even into early Friday morning.
744 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019 A slow moving storm system will push across the state overnight Friday will be cooler and drier, and the pleasant conditions will continue through the weekend. Convection is increasing over western Pa in response to the approaching North-South cold front which is just nearing the PA/OH border. The front is slated to move very slowly with the upper trough supporting additional showers well into the overnight and even into early Friday morning.
Low pressure is starting to develop along the front over north central WY. Upper level analysis shows low pressure centered over western MT, with trough covering the northern Rockies and northern high plains. Strong upper jet in place from the base of the trough to southern MT, WY, and into the western Dakotas. Winds have or are switching to the south-southeast across northeast WY and far western SD ahead of the low to the west. Isolated to scattered showers are expected as the upper low tracks across southeast MT. The weekend still looks to be relatively cool and unsettled at times as the upper low slowly moves northeast into south central Canada.
Overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s are expected.
313 PM PDT Thu Jun 20 2019 Low pressure system drops through the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Great Basin today.
322 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019 Deep layer ridging will dominate over south Florida.
1201 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019 The 850 mb theta-e ridge will continue to work into the area this evening, helping to drive and area of showers with embedded thunderstorms eastward across the area.
/issued 902 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019/ Skies are mostly clear across the forecast area this evening with temperatures in the lower 70s to mid 80s.
Upper ridge is fcst to persist acrs the region thru today, resulting in hot and humid conds. The aforementioned upr rdg is expected to shift sloly to the E on Sat, in response to a long wv trof moving into the central Rockies.
/issued 335 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019/ Short term (Tonight-Saturday): models show deep high pressure gradually building across the region, with a mid level ridge axis extending into the Florida peninsula. The dominant high pressure will also translate into warmer temperatures with afternoon highs well into the 90s, along with heat indices reaching 105 or higher at times.
330 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019 The upper pattern has subtropical ridge reaching from the Gulf up across the center of the country with an upper low located over MT. A trough from this low extends south to Mexico. This trough will displace the ridge a little today as it moves east and more so on Saturday.
Evening update: Satellite imagery shows an upper low over western Montana with moisture wrapping around the low into the portions of Washington and north Idaho.
A much better chance for storms comes later Saturday with the arrival of a front to northwestern Oklahoma associated with a short wave trough ejecting from the larger western U. trough.
118 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019 A low pressure system will continue to bring showers and a few thunderstorms overnight, especially in Northeastern Pennsylvania where locally heavy rainfall is still possible.
Upper level ridge in place will continue to result in tranquil weather conditions tonight and Friday. Temperatures will rise quickly during the morning hours with highs reaching the low to mid 90s.
151 AM MDT Fri Jun 21 2019 A strong upper low continues to spin over the northern Rockies region, with a 100 kt jet moving over the northern plains. Energy from the low is creating a broad area of showers and thunderstorms across SD and NE. Showers and thunderstorms will move out of the CWA this morning, as the low pressure system shifts northeastward and a slot of drier air works in behind the cool/occluded front. Highs today will range from the upper 50s across northeastern WY and the Black Hills, to the lower 70s across south central SD.
Weak high pressure will build into the area Friday and Saturday.
As high pressure builds across the Tri-State area, expect decreased thunderstorm activity compared to the previous couple of days. Showers and thunderstorms will bring some relief to the high heat indicies.
220 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019 A slow moving storm system will push across the state overnight Friday will be cooler and drier, and the pleasant conditions will continue through the weekend.
500 mb high pressure is expected to remain the dominant force over the Rio Grande Valley and all of Deep South Texas.
Daytime heating combined with a cold front in these areas will provide enough instability to support thunderstorm development. A well- worked over environment and a much cooler airmass will deprive any lingering storms of sufficient instability to reach severe criteria.
In addition, surface dew points south of Interstate 20 were running in the upper 70s despite temperatures climbing into the lower 90s. Models agree that the southwest two thirds of our CWA will maintain mid to upper 70 dew points Friday when temperatures climb back into the lower 90s. Ridging aloft sets up good warm air/moist air advection through the weekend. A short wave develops to the north and stays out of the area, but the trough axis moves through with the surface front.
359 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019 Weak high pressure builds in today with dry conditions and mostly sunny skies. High pressure to provide a dry day with sunshine through mid afternoon. Mid level ridging will try to build into the area over the weekend but will likely be short lived as the same pattern repeats itself.
Early afternoon surface analysis shows low pressure over southeast Lower MI with a cold front that extend south through western OH and eastern KY. Northwest surface flow behind the front has dried out the air mass over central IN this afternoon as dew points have lowered into the low 60s with upper 50s upstream over IL and IA. Given the clearing and the lighter winds with weak high pressure and short wave ridging aloft, would expect patchy fog and visibilities less than a mile especially near waterways and rural areas. Models indicate yet another embedded mid level short wave trough moving out of the MO and mid MS Valley Friday afternoon and through Indiana by Friday night and through early Saturday.
Mostly sunny and pleasant conditions should continue Friday with highs a few degrees warmer than today.
very deep closed low over the great plains is rotating cold, but still dry, air down into the region today. This pattern will weaken the thermal trough along the coast and a stratus surge should move up the coast as the northerly winds decrease by the morning. /Issued 311 PM PDT Thu Jun 20 2019/ Mother nature has offered a reminder that it's still June with some cooler readings before the first day of summer tomorrow. A broad upper low has dug into the Pacific Northwest cooling things down considerably and bringing scattered showers to areas north.
Cooler and drier weather finally arrives today as the persistent airmass of the past week is shoved well south of the region. A ridge will build eastward into the upper Ohio river valley tonight and remain the main weather feature through the weekend. Have removed almost all of the PoPs for the weekend, as ridge will keep the moisture and lift west of the area. Temperatures will be near average with high pressure this weekend.
/issued 913 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019/ The surface pressure gradient continues to tighten across the Southern Plains this evening and this will become evident overnight in the form of increasing low level stratus, warmer overnight low temperatures tonight and stronger southerly winds on Friday. Dewpoints only mixed down into the lower to middle 70s across most areas today and much of the same is expected on Friday.
A cold front will continue to move south across the area tonight, and will bring substantially cooler temperatures to the area Friday into this weekend. An unseasonably deep and cold upper trough encompasses the western CONUS this evening. In the wake of this cold front, much cooler air along with gusty northwest winds are filtering into northern Utah.