Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
247 AM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021 High pressure will bring sunny, dry and warm weather with building humidity this week. 'Fair and Warm' may describe the near term period as a dry upper ridge puts a foot-print across the region. A deep layer of SSE flow will continue Tuesday night, with high pressure center off the Mid-Atlantic coast, and low pressure lifting across Louisiana.
105 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 (This evening through Monday) Upper level ridging remains in place over our area as Tropical Storm Nicholas moves slowly north toward the Texas coast. The main effects for our area from the tropical system will felt tomorrow, with an increase in moisture, slightly cooler temperatures, and a slight chance to chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms generally east of a Coleman to Sonora line.
(This evening through Monday) Upper level ridging remains in place over our area as Tropical Storm Nicholas moves slowly north toward the Texas coast. The main effects for our area from the tropical system will felt tomorrow, with an increase in moisture, slightly cooler temperatures, and a slight chance to chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms generally east of a Coleman to Sonora line.
910 PM PDT Sun Sep 12 2021 High pressure over Southern California will slowly weaken over the next few days, as a trough develops along the coast.
438 AM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021 High pressure will remain anchored offshore through much of the week. A backdoor cold front will approach from Pennsylvania tonight, then retreat northward as a warm front Tuesday.
this breaking down of the ridge will result in the advection of gulf moisture via the Gulf of Mexico into the state bringing clouds and higher dewpoint temperatures.
A dry cold front will cross the region overnight, though with northwest winds already in place the frontal passage will be hard to distinguish at most sites. Isolated thunderstorms in southeast Twin Falls County early this evening as a weak upper trough moves eastward across northern Utah. A better-defined upper trough to our north will push a weak cold front and a band of mid-level clouds across northern areas tonight. Monday will be sunny, breezy, and 3-5 degrees cooler than today behind the weak cold front and under the upper trough. Low temps Tuesday morning will be near freezing in the mountain basins and valleys. Cool again on the Idaho side but a little warmer in Oregon as the upper trough exits east.
Mostly VFR through this taf cycle as high pressure prevails, however am expecting some patchy fog this morning at TRI with restrictions in the IFR/LIFR range. CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 67 87 68 84 / 10 10 20 20 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 66 87 67 85 / 0 0 20 10 40 Oak Ridge, TN 88 65 87 66 84 / 0 0 20 10 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 63 87 63 85 / 0 0 20 10 30.
Currently water vapor imagery shows lead 500hpa wave associated with trof moving through northern plains moving through WY attm. A trough will settle into the area Monday, with winds shifting N/NE behind the trough, becoming gusty for a period.
1208 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 As of 03z/10pm, regional radar reveals a small cluster of thunderstorms moving off the High Plains of western Kansas. As the mid/upper ridge continues to dampen, we'll see a decrease in thickness supporting slightly lower maximum temperatures compared to the past several days however we expect to remain well above normal at most locations with mid 90s anticipated on Monday and a wide range of temperatures on Tue with mid/upper 80s along the I-70 corridor and low/mid 90s along the OK state line. More seasonable temperatures are anticipated with highs in the low to mid 80s areawide.
Upper high will shift eastward and weaken this afternoon.
116 AM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021 High pressure will remain offshore through early this week, with dry weather continuing.
At 5h, an upper high currently over eastern TN/KY will continue to shift east today. Any lingering showers or thunderstorms that may occur Tuesday night will be more likely in northwest AL closer to the weak trough/convergence axis.
This afternoon, the southern third of the CONUS remains under the influence of the upper ridge with zonal flow present across the rest of the US. A stronger mid-level wave ejects across the Plains on Tuesday which will shunt the surface cold front through the area.
This has allowed moisture to infiltrate back into the region over the last 24 hours, with dewpoints back in the lower 70s. Tropical Storm Nicholas is forecast to continue to track along the lower Texas Coast and make landfall somewhere along the Middle Texas Coast later this evening. Readings in the lower 80s are more likely in the southern part of the forecast area, while mid to upper 80s are possible in the central to north, where precipitation will be slower to occur and some peaks of sun are more likely. Highs on Tuesday will remain in the lower to middle 80s for most locations thanks to ample cloud cover and increasing coverage of precipitation. Highs through the remainder of the week will be in the lower to middle 80s due to significant cloud and precipitation coverage.
429 AM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021 Today will be a near carbon copy of yesterday as the center of the upper level ridge, currently over the SE CONUS, slowly starts to shift eastward. With subsidence aloft, high pressure at the surface and light surface winds high temperatures will climb just slightly above climatological normal and into the upper 80 and low 90s.
(Today through Tuesday afternoon) Ridging aloft will keep us slightly above normal this afternoon with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s.
This boundary won't budge much today thanks to the upper level ridge over our area. Warm SW flow today will result in temps several degrees warmer with afternoon highs in the middle 80s, and dew points will slowly creep up into the mid and upper 60s by late in the day. On Tuesday the upper ridge shifts east off the coast, and we'll be monitoring the moisture from Tropical Storm Nicholas in the western Gulf. In addition, a storm system over the upper Great Lakes moving into eastern Canada will drag a cold front to northern portions of the OH valley by late in the day.
142 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 Warmer and a little more humid than the last several nights. Isolated showers with a few rumbles of thunder will be possible Tuesday as today's ridge weakens and moves off to the east.
258 AM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021 High pressure will continue to bring dry and warm weather today. A high pressure system will continue to provide dry weather today and tonight. High pressure will begin to retreat east during the day Tuesday as a low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes region and drags a cold front towards the CWA.
An incoming Pacific storm late week into the weekend may bring strong winds, much cooler conditions, and possibly some light precipitation. Primary time frame of interest remains with the low pressure system approaching the region for late week into the weekend.
A weak cold front associated with the northern system will be located across central KS Tuesday, with thunderstorms forming along the boundary in the afternoon.
304 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 A flat upper level ridge will remain in place from coast to coast across the southern half of the CONUS today and tonight. A slight decrease in heights with the passage of an upper level short wave trough across the northern/central Plains and a modest uptick in dew point temperatures support the model and MOS idea of today's highs running 1-3 degrees cooler than those of yesterday. Upper ridging will begin to shift westward on Tuesday as Tropical Storm Nicholas moves northeastward along the Texas Gulf Coast. Dewpoints are progged to climb back into the upper 50s to low 60s across the CWA on Tuesday, and this additional low level moisture combined with slight 500mb height reductions will result in slightly cooler temperatures on Tuesday into the midweek period.
Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue spreading through the forecast area during the rest of the night and into Monday, with the highest chances for precipitation in the south central and James River Valley in the morning through the afternoon. Expect highs in the upper 60 to upper 70s, with cooler temperatures where rain and clouds linger the longest. Temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s on Tuesday as troughing remains aloft.
However can see radar returns upstream across eastern WY along the lingering frontal boundary and supported by a weakening upper level jet streak and short wave energy moving through a relatively flat trof. The upper trof axis finally pushes through Tuesday evening with generally dry conditions Tuesday night. Ensemble guidance shows a broad, flat ridge gradually building northward and some troffiness over the Pacific northwest.
AT the surface, a stagnant boundary extended from about northern IL into relatively weakly organized low pressure situated over southeast CO.
Will be watching closely as the latest HREF increased the probability of red flag conditions Monday night in fire weather zone 619 from an isolated 30%-40% to a more widspread 30%-60% (higher along the higher terrain).
415 AM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021 Ridging aloft overspreads the SE CONUS while W Atlantic surface ridging extends across the region with axis to our north. Surface ridging slides NE over that period before returning during the weekend. Flow looks to shift back more E'ly during the weekend as ridging builds back over the state. Average temps expected through the period with afternoon highs mostly in the lower 90s. High pressure remains north of the waters into midweek with persisting easterly flow. Areas of low pressure over the northern Gulf and in the vicinity of the Bahamas during the latter half of the week allow more southerly flow to develop over the waters.
Kept the higher POPs near 50 percent with good agreement between the GFS and NAM. A cold front will also be advancing southeast during the day. The atmosphere does continue to moisten up behind the cold front, with POPS increasing to 40-50 percent after midnight across the west. The highest POPS Tuesday morning, ending from north to south during the afternoon. Highs will be pleasant mainly in the low 70s.
1118 PM MDT Sun Sep 12 2021 Scattered convection across the higher terrain will be winding down this evening with most areas shutting down for the night. Monday is setting up to see another round of isolated convection along the ridges that will again dissipate into the evening hours as they move off and over the valleys.
320 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 Warm air advection has developed this morning ahead of a low pressure system, broad upper level trough. Surface dew points are slowly increasing west of the Missouri River with readings in the low to mid 50s. An area of high pressure will slowly slide southeastward into the CWA later tonight into the morning hours on Tuesday. This may help set the stage for low clouds, or fog over a good portion of the CWA, especially over the higher terrain areas of the Sisseton Hills. The high begins to get pushed east late Tuesday night as a low pressure trough approaches from the west.
Cooler lows ranging from the low 40s north to mid 50s south. Highs will be mainly in the low 70s.
Discussion: A 595dm anticyclone remains centered over the TN valley this morning, extending southward across much of the Deep South, all while a zonally oriented cold front remains well northward across the Great Lakes and TC Nicholas slowly migrates northward through the western GOM. Moving into/through Monday, the upper ridge will prevail yet again favoring fair wx cu beneath some high cirrus intruding from the south in association with Nicholas. Otherwise, dry with light sly/vrb winds with high temperatures topping out in the mid/upr 80s across the lower terrain, upr 70s to lwr 80s in the high terrain.
257 AM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021 High pressure will continue to bring dry and warm weather today. A high pressure system will continue to provide dry weather today and tonight. High pressure will begin to retreat east during the day Tuesday as a low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes region and drags a cold front towards the CWA.
The central and southern terminals (KLIT/KPBF/KADF/KHOT/KLLQ) will see the lowering of cigs to MVFR conditions beginning around 15Z.
For Tuesday, the further development of the inverted trough to the east will help produce better moisture over forecast area, resulting in greater convective chances.
However can see radar returns upstream across eastern WY along the lingering frontal boundary and supported by a weakening upper level jet streak and short wave energy moving through a relatively flat trof. The upper trof axis finally pushes through Tuesday evening with generally dry conditions Tuesday night. The highest POPS Tuesday morning, ending from north to south during the afternoon. Highs will be pleasant mainly in the low 70s.
The leading edge of a moisture plume moving into the Lower Mississippi Valley ahead of the very slow moving Tropical Storm Nicholas early this week will move into parts of southeast MO and the Purchase area of west Kentucky Tuesday afternoon.
--Above normal temp pattern next 7 to 10 days-- As Tropical Storm Nicholas makes landfall in the wrn Gulf mid week, heights rise over the GrtLks Rgn and we stay in a warmer than normal pattern for the foreseeable future. MKG is deeper into the cooler air and it may take longer for those cigs to reach MKG. Marine headlines will be needed again on Tuesday due to a period of strong southerly flow which shifts northwesterly behind a cold front later in the day.
136 AM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021 High pressure will bring sunny, dry and warm weather with building humidity this week. High pressure will control area weather during the period with fair weather expected. Lows tonight be in the low to mid 60s with mid to upper 60s expected Monday night. High pressure just offshore on Tuesday will allow for onshore to increase slightly. Highs on Tuesday afternoon in the lower 90s, lows overnight around 70.
Trough that will bring areas of rain shower (and embedded thunder) to our CWA is still over Saskatchewan and Montana, but weak forcing and lingering mid level moisture are still supporting a few sprinkles/light showers ahead of this main wave. Dry, mild, and breezy conditions are favored Tuesday after a cold front passes and deep mixing in unidirectional northwest flow sets up.
225 AM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021 High pressure centered just off the North Carolina coast will drift slowly eastward and further offshore through early this week, while continuing to extend westward into the Carolinas. A trough sitting over central NC will linger into the morning, with relatively low pressure over the area expected through tonight. A 595 dam H5 high pressure aloft, centered over the southern Appalachians, will weaken slightly as it drifts eastward to over the Carolinas today and offshore tonight. Expect continued moderation in temperatures, with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the mid 60s. Meanwhile, Tropical Cyclone Nicholas is expected to be inland over TX Tuesday morning and should very slowly migrate east-northeastward into LA through Tuesday night.
609 AM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021 High pressure will bring sunny, dry and warm weather with building humidity this week. 'Fair and Warm' may describe the near term period as a dry upper ridge puts a foot-print across the region. A deep layer of SSE flow will continue Tuesday night, with high pressure center off the Mid-Atlantic coast, and low pressure lifting across Louisiana.
A weak stationary front continues to drape over the Florida Peninsula, with a sharp ridge penetrating the Southeast United States from the Atlantic. From synopsis, a robust ridge extending across the Atlantic and through the southeastern United States, gentle to moderate easterly breezes and higher than normal convective coverage will continue through this evening. Thereafter, the ridge will then weaken and retrograde eastward into the Atlantic, as a tropical disturbance is expected to form in the vicinity of the Bahamas.
A low pressure system will bring cooling for the latter part of the week, with temperatures dropping to several degrees below normal during the weekend.
Low level moisture is being advected by increasing southerly flow as an upper high has moved off toward the mid-Atlantic coast and winds have veered to the south. High temperatures are expected to top out in the mid to upper 80s this afternoon, with heat indices in the low 90s. Any lingering showers or thunderstorms that may occur Tuesday night will be more likely in northwest AL closer to the weak trough/convergence axis.
945 AM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021 High pressure will remain anchored offshore through much of the week. A backdoor cold front will approach from Pennsylvania tonight, then retreat northward as a warm front Tuesday.
556 AM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021 High pressure will continue to bring dry and warm weather today. A high pressure system will continue to provide dry weather today and tonight. High pressure will begin to retreat east during the day Tuesday as a low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes region and drags a cold front towards the CWA.
/Issued 429 AM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021/ Today will be a near carbon copy of yesterday as the center of the upper level ridge, currently over the SE CONUS, slowly starts to shift eastward. With subsidence aloft, high pressure at the surface and light surface winds high temperatures will climb just slightly above climatological normal and into the upper 80 and low 90s.
The highest chances wl be across interior zones, as onshore flow pushes much of the afternoon convection to the western half of the peninsula. A high pressure ridge axis remaining well north of the local area will continue light easterly onshore flow across the local Atlantic waters.
/issued 415 AM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021/ Ridging aloft overspreads the SE CONUS while W Atlantic surface ridging extends across the region with axis to our north. Surface ridging slides NE over that period before returning during the weekend. Flow looks to shift back more E'ly during the weekend as ridging builds back over the state. Average temps expected through the period with afternoon highs mostly in the lower 90s. High pressure remains north of the waters into midweek with persisting easterly flow. Areas of low pressure over the northern Gulf and in the vicinity of the Bahamas during the latter half of the week allow more southerly flow to develop over the waters.
647 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 (Today and tonight) Current water vapor imagery showed upper level ridging over the Desert Southwest. Another ridge was centered over the southeast U. With increasing dewpoints and more afternoon clouds (especially across our southeastern counties) we will see slightly cooler daytime temperatures.
High pressure over the desert southwest will slowly weaken with a weak zonal flow developing across the area.
Forecast soundings continue to show lots of dry air in the low-levels so any rain will be light, brief, and total a tenth of an inch or less. Temperatures today will top out in the 80s to low 90s across the valleys and deserts with 60s and 70s expected in the higher terrain. A weak boundary/cold front trailing behind today's system will push through on Tuesday and will bring drier air in from the northwest. Just enough moisture will linger across the higher terrain along the Continental Divide for a few isolated showers and storms to pop on the ridge tops Tuesday afternoon; however, similar to today, expecting more of a virga/gusty wind risk vs. Temperatures will be slightly cooler, especially across the northern CWA, but will still top out about 5 degrees above normal for the middle of September.
(Today and tonight) Current water vapor imagery showed upper level ridging over the Desert Southwest. Another ridge was centered over the southeast U. With increasing dewpoints and more afternoon clouds (especially across our southeastern counties) we will see slightly cooler daytime temperatures.
401 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 Outflow from overnight convection on the high plains will quickly erode today, with winds strengthening from the south. The highest instability will be just north of the front from Dodge City south and east. Temperatures will be a little cooler Tuesday afternoon in the wake of the front, with mainly 80s north to near 90 south.
Outflow from overnight convection on the high plains will quickly erode today, with winds strengthening from the south. The highest instability will be just north of the front from Dodge City south and east. Temperatures will be a little cooler Tuesday afternoon in the wake of the front, with mainly 80s north to near 90 south.
Flathead County will have the highest coverage of storms this afternoon.
Currently water vapor imagery shows lead 500hpa wave associated with trof moving through northern plains moving through WY attm.
348 AM MDT Mon Sep 13 2021 Showers and thunderstorms will track across Wyoming this morning in advance of a short wave trough. A cold front associated with this wave will push south across the plains this morning. Highs across northeast Colorado are expected to be a little cooler today with readings in the lower to mid 80s. This cooler air will act to stabilize the airmass some. Tuesday will be the coolest day of the week with cooler air aloft and weak upslope flow through the day. As has been typical over the past couple of weeks, the trend has been towards a warmer solution, with highs now expected to reach the upper 70s across the plains. Our cool pattern is short-lived as another ridge begins to build across the south central US.
Still not confident in the warmer NBM (blended guidance) and instead stuck with MOS blend, which is close to the going forecast. A weak cold front associated with the northern system will be located across central KS Tuesday, with thunderstorms forming along the boundary in the afternoon.
/issued 304 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021/ A flat upper level ridge will remain in place from coast to coast across the southern half of the CONUS today and tonight. A slight decrease in heights with the passage of an upper level short wave trough across the northern/central Plains and a modest uptick in dew point temperatures support the model and MOS idea of today's highs running 1-3 degrees cooler than those of yesterday. Upper ridging will begin to shift westward on Tuesday as Tropical Storm Nicholas moves northeastward along the Texas Gulf Coast. Dewpoints are progged to climb back into the upper 50s to low 60s across the CWA on Tuesday, and this additional low level moisture combined with slight 500mb height reductions will result in slightly cooler temperatures on Tuesday into the midweek period.
Warm air advection has developed this morning ahead of a low pressure system, broad upper level trough. Surface dew points are slowly increasing west of the Missouri River with readings in the low to mid 50s. An area of high pressure will slowly slide southeastward into the CWA later tonight into the morning hours on Tuesday. This may help set the stage for low clouds, or fog over a good portion of the CWA, especially over the higher terrain areas of the Sisseton Hills. The high begins to get pushed east late Tuesday night as a low pressure trough approaches from the west.
636 AM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021 High pressure centered just off the North Carolina coast will drift slowly eastward and further offshore through early this week, while continuing to extend westward into the Carolinas. A trough sitting over central NC will linger into the morning, with relatively low pressure over the area expected through tonight. A 595 dam H5 high pressure aloft, centered over the southern Appalachians, will weaken slightly as it drifts eastward to over the Carolinas today and offshore tonight. Expect continued moderation in temperatures, with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the mid 60s. Meanwhile, Tropical Cyclone Nicholas is expected to be inland over TX Tuesday morning and should very slowly migrate east-northeastward into LA through Tuesday night.
A weak cold front will stall across central Utah today, allowing a slightly cooler air mass to spread across the north.