Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As forcing associated with the upper trough pushes east, the whole area of convection will follow as the cold front pushes to the southeast. The low level jet will strengthen as the sun sets and this will enhance the low level shear and helicity for for storms to work with. Much cooler and drier air will move into the area in the wake of the cold front. The next chance for precipitation may then come by the end of the week as the upper ridge flattens out over the west. The main impact for the forecast period will be moderate thunderstorms along a cold front expected to push through the region this evening and into the overnight hours.
516 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES INTO SUNDAY. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
311 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015 Upper level trof continues to slowly move east across the middle Mississippi/lower Ohio River valleys this afternoon. Cold front still expected to approach the region late tonight/early Sunday.
311 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015 THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST. WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH THE KATY AREA. WEAK CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA HAVE VERIFIED THE HIGH WIND WARNING. TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH COOLER SUNDAY AS WELL /HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S/.
342 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SEASONABLE AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO DECREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TO TODAY ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 100S OUT WEST WITH 90S ELSEWHERE.
259 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015 UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ARKANSAS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM MO SEWD TO AL. THINK THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARD NRN MIDDLE TN AND WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET RUNNING INTO THIS DRIER AIR AND AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST OVERNIGHT. HAVE HIGHER POPS OVER THE SRN HALF OF MIDDLE TN CLOSER TO THE HIGHER MOISTURE.
300 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT STALLS UPON REACHING THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE LOW STAYS WELL OFFSHORE, MODELS SHOW MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE. CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAMS SUGGEST A SUBTROPICAL LOW WILL BE SITUATED WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
Models continue to show an upper level trof moving across the middle Mississippi/lower Ohio River valleys today. Dry conditions are expected this evening, then models show a cold front reaching far western portions of the PAH forecast area by 12z Sunday.
High pressure will begin to build overhead on Sunday, marking the beginning of a warming and relatively dry period throughout the first half of the work week. Forecast confidence continues to increase that a strong ridge of high pressure will maintain a southwest flow across the Northern Rockies leading to above normal temperatures. With the lower levels of the atmosphere initially dry, any thunderstorms will produce little rainfall but will have gusty outflow winds.
356 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THIS EVENING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN BLOCKED BY STACKED RIDGING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE UPPER RIDGING WEAKENS SLOWLY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BREAKS DOWN TOMORROW WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW WILL BE VERY STACKED AND HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING AN ORGANIZED SURFACE FRONT TO EXTEND VERY FAR TO THE EAST AS IT SITS NEARLY STATIONARY ON SUNDAY.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS AND WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SURFACE TO 500MB/APPROX 18000 FEET. THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS SOME AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER FLORIDA AND NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE ATLANTIC PERSIST. TROUGHING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SW/W FLOW BECOMING PREDOMINANT OVER ECFL. 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST -6C/-7C TUE/WED BUT THEN A LITTLE COOLER - 7C/-8C INTO THU/FRI PROVIDING A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES.
Short range models indicate a strong upper level trough of low pressure evolving into a closed off low as it moves eastward into the Dakotas early this evening. Meanwhile, a strong attendant cold front is projected to push southeast across western and central Kansas early to mid evening providing the focus for likely thunderstorm development through the overnight hours. Cooler temperatures are likely tonight in wake of a strong cold front pushing southeastward across western Kansas this evening. Expect lows easily down into the 50s(F) across west central Kansas with the lower 60s(F) still possible in south central Kansas.
ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT ALONG/AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY EVENING.
332 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015 Robust line of thunderstorms is likely to develop over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa this afternoon and evening along and ahead of a fast-moving cold front. Cold front will be pushing into eastern MO and the Ozarks by sunrise Sunday with high pressure quickly building into the region behind it.
352 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
Toward daybreak Sunday, a decent cold front looks to enter southeastern New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin of west Texas.
A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE RAPIDLY PUSHING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS. THE REST OF THE DAY WILL SEE PRETTY WINDY CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS AS HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO BARELY MID 70S SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION KEEPING THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WARM AND DRY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BREAK OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SLIDES WESTWARD ACROSS THE STATE OF TEXAS.
310 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE RIDGE OVER THE 4 CORNERS WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS A DEEP MID LVL LOW MOVES TWRDS THE GRT LAKES REGION. THE FLATTENING RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND SERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WEST MERGING WITH THE MAIN RIDGE OVER THE 4 CORNERS. THIS PORTION OF THE FCST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH THE RIDGE CNTR OVER THE DESERT SW AND THE RIDGE AXIS RUNNING NORTH OVER THE ROCKIES INTO CNTRL CANADA. A L/W TROUGH WILL SET SHOP OVER THE ERN SEABOARD WITH DRY NW FLOW OVER THE AREA. MORNING LOWS WILL BE MUCH COOLER WED THROUGH SAT AND AFTN HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.
150 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY.
MID LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH RESPONSIBILE FOR INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND RAINFALL THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY AND TONIGHT AND BE REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND INCREASING HEIGHTS FOR SUNDAY.
410 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AIR INTO TONIGHT.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY CURRENTLY. A STOUT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. AND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE WAS LOCATED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WYOMING. WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ARK RVR VALLEY WITH U80S/M90S ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND RATON MESA REGIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. COOLER AIR WILL COME BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH LOWS REACHING INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT. \/HODANISH AFTER A COOLER DAY SUNDAY.
1059 AM PDT SAT AUG 22 2015 High pressure will build in and winds will subside. The cooler air and lighter winds should help regional firefighting efforts, but the light winds and strong morning inversions this weekend may create areas of poor air quality due to high concentrations of wildfire smoke. A good concentration of wildfires in the southern ID Panhandle will keep the Lewiston Area and Palouse rather smokey as well where the low level winds have more of a southeasterly orientation to them. /SVH 18Z TAFS: High pressure across western MT will continue to result in light northeast winds across the ID Panhandle and into eastern WA.
THESE RAINS MAY BE THE LAST WE SEE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BE- GINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION - ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING A- CROSS THE ROCKIES LATE MON/TUES AS A TROF DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN STATES. SOME DRIER/SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR EXPECTED TO SLOWLY FILTER INTO SE TX BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS POPS FALL ONCE AGAIN.
248 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015 COLD FRONT IS SCREAMING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBOUND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE MOST RECENT PACIFIC TROUGH SWEEPS FURTHER EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE NEXT TWO UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES GRADUALLY ADVANCE TOWARD THE COAST. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.
HAVE KEPT THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA BY LATE AFTERNOON THERE. A COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE NW SHOULD BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST SUN AM.
319 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
A cold front will move south into the region Sunday morning. Models are still showing a weak cold front moving into northern Lea County Sunday morning, then slowly sagging south to the I-20 corridor by the afternoon. The highest rain chances will be along the front but weak upper level support may allow for only widely scattered convection to develop so have left PoPs at modest levels for this forecast.
1130 AM MDT SAT AUG 22 2015 AVIATION SECTION UPDATED SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROF THAT BROUGHT SOME WELCOME RAINFALL AND SWEPT OUT MOST OF THE SMOKY CONDITIONS LAST NIGHT IS NOW WELL INTO EASTERN MT AND MOVING STEADILY TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. BECAUSE THE COLD FRONT SWEPT MORE EAST THAN SOUTH, STILL HAVE FAIR AMOUNT OF SMOKE OVER BEAVERHEAD/MADISON/ PARTS OF GALLATIN COUNTIES WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTN. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND RESIDUAL INSTABILITY/MOISTURE BEHIND AN EXITING UPPER-LEVEL TROF ARE COMBINING TO CREATE BANDS OF BKN/OVC CLOUDS AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES EXCEPT KCTB (FEW CLOUDS THERE).
1245 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015 PRESENCE OF SURFACE TROF EXTENDING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS FORECAST AREA WILL SERVE TO KEEP SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 15 KT TODAY AND THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT ARRIVES AROUND 04Z SUNDAY AT NORTHERN TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT. LEESIDE TROUGH AND INCOMING COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE PANHANDLES DURING THIS PERIOD. THOUGH AXIS OF THE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST INTO OKLAHOMA.
217 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE WINDY AND SHOWERY DAY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN A WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS BRINGING SEASONABLE AUGUST WEATHER TO OUR AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. SUNDAY EVENING THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND.
THE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA REGION. THE STRONG FORCING WITH INCOMING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THE SEVERE THREAT. ANY WRAPAROUND SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NWRN WI WILL DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY.
246 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
403 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE NON OPTIMAL TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WHILE THE BEST FORCING WILL ALSO PASS NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH A WARMER START AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY ON AVERAGE.
CONTINUED WARMER TEMPS FOR TODAY. HOWEVER, AS THE THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AS THE PRECIP COMES TO AN END, EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM QUICKLY.
Models are still showing a weak cold front moving into northern Lea County Sunday morning, then slowly sagging south to the I-20 corridor by the afternoon. The highest rain chances will be along the front but weak upper level support may allow for only widely scattered convection to develop so have left PoPs at modest levels for this forecast.
A cold front will move south into the Big Country late on Sunday, shifting winds to the northeast. /ISSUED 431 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015/ (Today and Tonight) Hot and dry conditions will prevail today as the upper level ridge dominates.
325 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015 AT 19Z THE COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THAT BUILDS EAST ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY COOLER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO 70S.
1139 AM MDT SAT AUG 22 2015 COLD FRONT HAS NOW CLEARED CWA WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND IT. WITH SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY AND TEMPS NEAR THE FREEZING MARK IN THE BLACK HILLS. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY ON SUNDAY AS BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE WESTERN CONUS. WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY BACK INTO THE REGION.
528 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015 A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NW KS AND CEN CO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT. THE UPR TROUGH AND ASSOC DYNAMICS DRIVING THE FRONT ARE WELL REMOVED TO THE NE. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUN WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE NEXT FRONT PROMISES TO BRING BETTER RAIN CHCS IN THE THU-FRI TIME FRAME AS THE UPR RIDGE BACKS AWAY TO THE WEST AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL S/WV ENERGY ACCOMPANIES THE FROPA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET OVER THE AREA.
114 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST. BUT RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE CENTER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS READINGS. THIS WILL CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PROVIDE SOME EXTRA LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MOST OF THE STRONGER DYNAMICS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND LIFTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
209 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
1247 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015 06Z SFC DATA HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN MOVING INTO THE FAR WESTERN AREAS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
241 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SEASONABLE AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
450 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST DRIFTS TOWARD CAPE COD.
151 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL LAST THOUGH THE WEEKEND.
256 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015 ANALYSIS AT 2 PM CDT SHOWS A SEASONALLY VERY STRONG AND DIGGING STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50+ MPH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
Surface and upper level ridging centered over the Gulf will continue tonight with light flow.
VERY WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE KEEPING LIGHT E/NE FLOW WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105.
426 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.
HIGH A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. COULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE A BIT IN THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE IN. WITH THE COLD FRONT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY NOON.
535 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
WEAK COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WILL ERODE THIS EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
202 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES INTO SUNDAY. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
A ridge of high pressure will be over the region through the period.
S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE INTO EDWARDS PLATEAU. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WE/LL CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AS A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS CONTINUES.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD HELP KEEP CONVECTION IN CHECK THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A PATTERN OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TODAY DUE TO A LACK OF CLOUD COVER, SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, AND A LACK OF A MARINE INFLUENCE TODAY. THIS LACK OF A RETURN FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN COMBINE TO PRODUCE POOR AIR QUALITY OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES ENTER INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AS GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO DEEPEN FROM A CONTINUING FETCH IN THE LOW LEVELS OUT OF THE CARRIBEAN.
625 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF ILLINOIS THIS MORNING WITH RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY AIR FROM NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING GENERAL SUBSIDENCE TO THE AREA TODAY FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER. RESULTING IN NOTICEABLY COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS PEAKING IN THE LOWER 70S.
540 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015 SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS.
1043 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY. PROVIDING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF ILLINOIS THIS MORNING WITH RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY AIR FROM NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING GENERAL SUBSIDENCE TO THE AREA TODAY FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER. RESULTING IN NOTICEABLY COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS PEAKING IN THE LOWER 70S.
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO THE COASTS AND VALLEYS THIS MORNING.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WILL CONTINUE ON A SLOW NORTHEAST PATH THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND.
747 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL 250 MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED OFF THE SW FL COAST WITH THE MID LVL TROUGH AXIS JUST OFF THE FL EAST COAST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AXIS OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALIGNED FROM THE EXTREME UPPER KEYS SOUTHWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL CUBA. OUR AREA WILL LIE ON THE WESTERN DESCENDING SIDE OF A TROUGH AXIS LOCATED JUST TO OUR EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THIS TROUGH.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOSER TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH. THE UPPER TROUGH. THEN TRANSITION INLAND AND BECOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
AND IT IS CHALLENGING PLACING THE WEAK COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 89 67 90 70 / 20 10 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 87 64 88 68 / 20 10 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 87 65 88 69 / 20 10 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 83 61 84 64 / 30 10 30 10.
AMPLIFIED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE HAS KEPT SHOWERS IN AR/MS GOING OVERNIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY KEEPS BUILDING TO THE EAST. THE LOWER LEVELS ARE DRIER TODAY AND MID LEVELS ALSO ARE DRIER AND WARMER SO WILL SEE ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT BEST.
A MORE DEFINED UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST WHILE CUTOFF ENERGY IS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. CENTRAL ALABAMA IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT HALF THE WEEK. THE MAIN CHANCES FOR THIS WEEKEND WERE TO INCREASE THE HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AS IT APPEARS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE. THE CURRENT UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EASTWARD OF THE AREA TODAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST IS TRYING TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS ATTEMPTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. REALLY WE ARE IN MORE OF A COL AREA THAN DOMINATED BY EITHER SYSTEM AND THE SOUNDING HODOGRAPH INDICATES THIS WITH LIGHT WINDS IN JUST ABOUT ALL DIRECTION IN THE LOWER 10 KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE! SO EXPECT THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO BE SLOW MOVERS WITH HEAVY RAIN RATES WHERE THEY DO DEVELOP. THE GOOD NEWS THERE IS THE LOW PRECIP WATER MENTIONED ABOVE.
TEMPS ARE AVERAGING ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY SO WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS AS IS FOR NOW.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A DRY AIRMASS, ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF ANY CONVECTION TODAY. WEATHER FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA EXPECTED TO BE LESS ACTIVE TODAY AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EDGES IN OVER THE AREA FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
BUT COOLER WITH OCCASIONAL STRATUS AND BRISK NORTH WINDS AT TIMES ON THE COAST. BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO INTERIOR. CLOUDS LIMITED THIS MORNING TO COAST AND LOCALLY UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA VALLEY. A TAD COOLER ON MON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW IN THE SHORT TERM IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT ON TUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO CANADA. ANOTHER TROUGH IS MODELED TO MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR SOUTHERN NEVADA WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE ACROSS ARIZONA TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
937 AM PDT SAT JUN 6 2015 Temperatures this weekend will be much warmer than average with afternoon readings in the upper 80s to mid 90s.