Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
254 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 A remnant trough is in place over the northern Gulf with high pressure ridging across the southern half of FL. The ridge is lifting back to the north across the area tonight, and winds will be shifting around to the southeast for tomorrow as a result.
The main features are an upper level trough over the area between two upper ridges.
243 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 A crossing cold front will provide showers and thunderstorms, mainly south and east of Pittsburgh.
Further east, highs only top out in the lower 90s.
734 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 A cold front will move through the Ohio Valley this afternoon. A reinforcing cold front will follow on Wednesday. High pressure then builds in for the for the rest of the week bringing near average temperatures to the area. A cold front will clear the southeast reaches of the CWA this afternoon. Lows will range from the lower 60s north to mid 60s south. Highs will mainly be in the lower to mid 80s. High pressure builds in Wednesday night for mostly clear skies.
719 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 The weather will become increasingly unsettled through the week as a cold front enters the area and stalls for several days. Lows tonight will fall to the low to mid 70s with highs Wednesday in the lower 90s away from the beaches.
High pressure near Kansas City has produced mostly to partly sunny skies across the region this afternoon. Temperatures are in the lower and mid-80s. A weak cold front will move southeast into east-central Iowa and northern Illinois late tonight.
The evening update featured the loss of SVA 461 for areas east and south of Pittsburgh as the cold front is dropping sfc dewpoints and convective potential dramatically.
535 PM MDT Tue Jul 12 2022 00Z TAF CYCLE Upper level high pressure centered near the Four Corners will allow storms to drift southward thru tonight. Another round of SHRA/TS is expected around the higher terrain aft 19Z with slightly less coverage than today and slow storm motion. There are still some hints in the mesoscale models of a disturbance embedded in the periphery of the 500 mb ridge (centered over the UT/AZ border) tracking southward over the northern mountains through the evening. A downtick in thunderstorm coverage is forecast for Wednesday as the high pressure circulation aloft moves more directly over the forecast area and drier air filters southward over northern areas.
818 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022 (This afternoon through Wednesday Night) Temperatures continue to climb this afternoon ahead of the approaching cold front, and storms have already begun to develop in KY just ahead of the front. Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s are providing plenty of moisture, and strong instability is in place across the mid state. Conditions should be dry Wednesday night as the Midwest trough slowly moves east.
Latest surface analysis places the cold front NE-SW roughly parallel and just south of the OH River. High pressure will build in across the region tomorrow with mostly sunny skies, light NW winds, and dew points in the low 60s. Well-behaved Omega blocking pattern will experience little change during the first couple of days as a mid-level high/ridge persist throughout the West and north-central US while cyclonic flow and below-normal heights in the northeast Pacific Ocean and Northeast US flank it.
Central areas will see the highest probability of SHRA/TS over the next few hours, but these should decrease after sunset.
Above average temperatures continue today as the Four Corners Ridge remains in place. Isolated showers and storms could occur over the highest elevations of the Sierra Nevada later this afternoon. Smoke continues to get forced northward as southerly transport winds from being on the western periphery of the four corners ridge continues. In terms of heat, afternoon highs remain elevated today due to the ridge of high pressure's influence.
1001 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 A strong ridge remains entrenched over southern Florida and the Keys tonight, resulting in relatively calm and stable weather conditions, with little to no rainfall detected over the Keys. This evening, shower activity drifting off the coast of Cuba could persuade a few boundaries which could entice showers mainly over the nearshore and offshore waters and possibly the Lower Keys.
610 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022 (The rest of this afternoon and Tonight ) The cool front has moved to near the I-40 corridor this afternoon and is ushering in some slightly cooler and drier air across northern half of the forecast area. With the drier air in place and northerly winds, overnight lows will dip down into the low to mid 60s for some, with low 70s common across the region overnight.
903 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 The weather will become increasingly unsettled through the week as a cold front enters the area and stalls for several days. Lows tonight will fall to the low to mid 70s with highs Wednesday in the lower 90s away from the beaches.
The upper air pattern across the CONUS will be dominated by a large ridge of high pressure centered to our west across the Rockies and a trough of low pressure to our east stretching from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic Region. CVKING No major changes to lastest set of TAFs with ridge of high pressure over the region.
541 PM MDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the Northern Rockies expanding into the Northern Plains. Upper ridge axis will continue to shift east through mid week, with gradually warming temps and mainly dry conditions.
A Heat Advisory goes into effect for this area tomorrow as similar condtions are expected with daytime temps in the lower 100s and lows in the mid 70s. As the high pressure pivots a bit to the east, so does the available moisture for Wednesday.
(Rest of tonight) A cluster of thunderstorms is slowly tracking south as additional storms develop further west along a slow moving cold front.
/22/ Tonight and tomorrow: Stout upper ridging will remain centered over the Four Corners area with a low-level thermal ridge extending east into the Lower Mississippi Valley. This will help push a trailing surface cold front south into northern Arkansas and Tennessee by tomorrow morning. Temperatures within the aforementioned thermal ridge ranging from 20-22 C will help afternoon high temperatures climb into the mid to upper 90s, which combined with increasing moisture will yield heat indices of 105-110 degrees for much of the area.
/issued 350 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022/ Upper ridge centered over the Rockies continues to extend into the region but is weakening on the eastern edge. A slow moving cold front will continue moving through the forecast area tonight and Wednesday before stalling over north MS by Wednesday evening.
936 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 A cold front arrives Wednesday, bringing the next chance for rainfall. High pressure then builds in for the for the rest of the week bringing near average temperatures to the area. This evening's balloon launch verified much drier conditions moved into the region after the cold front passage earlier today. A cold front will clear the southeast reaches of the CWA this afternoon. Lows will range from the lower 60s north to mid 60s south. Highs will mainly be in the lower to mid 80s. High pressure builds in Wednesday night for mostly clear skies.
High pressure is beginning to centralize over the Four Corners which will increase the available moisture for northern Arizona. This continual cloud coverage will assist with overnight low temperatures being slightly warmer than normal too.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH TO SOME DEGREE TONIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO DIP INTO THE LOW 60S FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-40.
323 AM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 A tranquil and more comfortable morning to start off Wednesday as an area of high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley. BUFKIT soundings become well mixed and dry adiabatic in the low levels allowing for dewpoints to fall to near 60 degrees during peak diurnal heating. Mostly clear skies and calm winds can be expected Wednesday night as temps fall into the low to mid 60s.
Tuesday is expected to be a bit warmer as the high shifts over the area, however dewpoints will still remain in the 50s to maybe 60 in a few areas, so it will still be a bit more muggy, and that will keep the convective temperature in reach, but given that the high will be further east, there may be enough subsidence to keep the precipitation chances in check, and therefore have gone with less than 10 pops for tomorrow.
1029 PM MDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Water vapor shows upper ridge over the Northern Rockies expanding into the Northern Plains. Upper ridge axis will continue to shift east through mid week, with gradually warming temps and mainly dry conditions.
Aloft the ridge axis is located in eastern Montana and continues it's trek eastward. Highs will range from the lower 80s in the east, to the upper 80s in the west. Temperatures are warmer in the west due to the thermal ridge edging into western North Dakota today. Again, warmer temperatures are found across the west. The ridge axis will pass over this evening, along with a small disturbance in the flow.
Upper-level ridging to the west will put the area in a northwest flow pattern for the upcoming days.
216 AM EDT Wed Jul 13 2022 A cold front bisecting the CWA from NE to SW early this morning will dissipate as it moves slightly to the south. A secondary cold front with slightly drier air will swing into the northern territories this morning.
Otherwise, additional SHRA/TSRA should form by 09z-10z along southward moving cold front. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 69 90 69 92 / 60 40 20 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 68 89 67 90 / 40 20 10 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 86 66 89 67 90 / 30 20 10 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 64 85 63 87 / 30 20 10 0 20.
352 AM EDT Wed Jul 13 2022 The stalled out boundary that has been sitting in south Georgia has finally washed out allowing the upper level ridge to drift north once again.
116 AM EDT Wed Jul 13 2022 A cold front arrives Wednesday, bringing the next chance for rainfall. High pressure then builds in for the for the rest of the week bringing near average temperatures to the area. This evening's balloon launch verified much drier conditions moved into the region after the cold front passage earlier today. A cold front will clear the southeast reaches of the CWA this afternoon. Lows will range from the lower 60s north to mid 60s south. Highs will mainly be in the lower to mid 80s. High pressure builds in Wednesday night for mostly clear skies.
The upper air pattern across the CONUS will be dominated by a large ridge of high pressure centered to our west across the Rockies and a trough of low pressure to our east stretching from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic Region.
Coverage has decreased so far overnight, and expecting this trend to continue as increasing subsidence builds in as high pressure shifts eastward into northern Ontario. As the high clears out the skies slowly this morning, expecting a reinforcing mesohigh should develop on Lake Superior. Lake Superior should help to moderate its lakeshore communities today, so daytime highs aren't expected to climb much higher then the low to mid 60s.
223 AM MDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Upper level ridge continues to shift into the Northern Plains bringing warm temperatures and elevated fire weather concerns.
Upper ridge will be over the area with a thermal ridge.
441 AM EDT Wed Jul 13 2022 A slow moving cold front located over far north Georgia this morning will slowly sag southward across the area today. A strong ridge bears down over the southwest while the western branch of the Bermuda High over the Atlantic will help pull deep atmospheric moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico. As the center of the Bermuda High shifts eastward, a series of disturbances rounding the base of the 500mb trough extending from the Great Lakes Region will bring several rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the area through the remainder of the period.
Initial shower activity with this wave reaches the Saginaw Valley and Thumb regions by 09-13Z this morning before the parent trough swings over the region mid to late morning. Shower coverage likely begins expanding with this trough as favorable upper level divergence aids/strengthens the already ongoing weak ascent.
High pressure will be east southeast of the region through Tonight. A cold front will approach area from the northwest overnight. The exceptions will be over SE GA, where more moisture will ride over the ridge Today, and along the NE FL coast where moisture increases from the south during the afternoon. Lows in the lower to middle 70s will be common Tonight.
342 AM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 A broad area of high pressure over the region is producing a clear sky, light winds, and slightly below normal temperatures. Slightly cooler low level temps, along with poor mixing winds, highs today should be a few degrees cooler than Tuesday, mainly in northeast SD and western MN. Ridging aloft will move into the region later tonight, bringing a warm EML of 12-14C at 700 mb into the CWA.
1131 PM MDT Tue Jul 12 2022 06Z TAF CYCLE Upper level high pressure centered near the Four Corners. Showers and tstms to redevelop over the wrn and nrn high terrain aft 18Z then move slowly south to swwd into the lower elevations. There are still some hints in the mesoscale models of a disturbance embedded in the periphery of the 500 mb ridge (centered over the UT/AZ border) tracking southward over the northern mountains through the evening. A downtick in thunderstorm coverage is forecast for Wednesday as the high pressure circulation aloft moves more directly over the forecast area and drier air filters southward over northern areas.
As far as temperatures, the 850 mb thermal ridge will still be strong, so expect another day of very hot temperatures, with highs in the 100 to 105 degree range.
302 AM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 A potent upper trough is positioned over the Great Lakes region and progressing eastward. Meanwhile, the upper ridge over the Four Corners region is beginning to strengthen and build eastward over the Central Plains.
Secondary cold front is holding over Southern Lower Michigan early this morning. Wave has developed within the base of the upper level trough axis which currently extends from Lake Superior thru Wisconsin. The upper level trough axis and resulting wave will swing thru Lower Michigan this morning. High temps this afternoon will warm into the low to mid 70s.
Overall forcing is weak across the High Plains today with lackluster lapse rates and decent capping as the upper ridge over the western US continues to strengthen. There may be enough forcing on the edge of the inverted trof with a bit of a dry line pushing into southwest Nebraska to generate some convection this afternoon and continuing into tonight as a low level jet becomes established again, but expect coverage will remain isolated.
251 AM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Weak cold front (as you might expect for mid July) that was dropping southward into southern WI was producing a few showers but were weakening just as they enter the dvn cwa north of Hwy 20. Today: Mostly sunny with scattered cumulus as a weak cold front pushes across the area. Forecast soundings indicate dry air in the low levels due to an easterly flow. This should bring several short waves around the northern periphery of the large upper high over the southwest CONUS.
With the upper level ridge remaining positioned over the southwestern United States, skies will remain mostly clear and this will likely be the beginning of a very boring stretch of weather.
1235 AM EDT Wed Jul 13 2022 The weather will become increasingly unsettled through the week as a cold front enters the area and stalls for several days. Lows tonight will fall to the low to mid 70s with highs Wednesday in the lower 90s away from the beaches.
1110 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Lingering showers over the southeastern third of Pennsylvania will diminish overnight, as a cold front slides south of the area.
336 AM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Showers and thunderstorms are scattered near the TN/MS border as of 3:30 AM CDT along a weak, slow moving cold front and will continue pushing to the southeast for the next several hours. Temperatures won't be quite as hot today as slightly cooler air moves in behind the front, but we'll still get up to the low to mid 90s across the area. As warmer dewpoints pool along this frontal boundary today, heat indices will peak in the 100 to 105F range in our southernmost tier of counties.
139 AM EDT Wed Jul 13 2022 A cold front bisecting the CWA from NE to SW early this morning will dissipate as it moves slightly to the south. A secondary cold front with slightly drier air will swing into the northern territories this morning.
1225 AM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 (This afternoon through Wednesday Night) Temperatures continue to climb this afternoon ahead of the approaching cold front, and storms have already begun to develop in KY just ahead of the front. Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s are providing plenty of moisture, and strong instability is in place across the mid state. Conditions should be dry Wednesday night as the Midwest trough slowly moves east.
1247 AM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 (Rest of tonight) A cluster of thunderstorms is slowly tracking south as additional storms develop further west along a slow moving cold front.
338 AM EDT Wed Jul 13 2022 A second cold front drops through the area this afternoon bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms along and north of I-70. High pressure moves in behind the front this evening. High pressure and near average temperatures remain in place for the rest of the work week. High pressure will be nosing in from the north today. After a calm, mostly clear start, cumulus fields will form thanks to developing instability ahead of a second cold front. High pressure builds in from the north on Wednesday night.
A trough located over the Gulf of Mexico will move west towards the Lower Texas coast and bring an influx of moisture to Deep South Texas. This will keep our high temperatures about 1 to 2 degrees cooler through Thursday.
Weak cold front (as you might expect for mid July) that was dropping southward into southern WI was producing a few showers but were weakening just as they enter the dvn cwa north of Hwy 20. Today: Mostly sunny with scattered cumulus as a weak cold front pushes across the area. Forecast soundings indicate dry air in the low levels due to an easterly flow. This should bring several short waves around the northern periphery of the large upper high over the southwest CONUS.
Strong ridging aloft is centered over the Four Corners region. In the lower levels, a weak boundary and associated moisture gradient lingers across south-central KY.
A tranquil and more comfortable morning to start off Wednesday as an area of high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley. BUFKIT soundings become well mixed and dry adiabatic in the low levels allowing for dewpoints to fall to near 60 degrees during peak diurnal heating. Mostly clear skies and calm winds can be expected Wednesday night as temps fall into the low to mid 60s.
/issued 336 AM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022/ Showers and thunderstorms are scattered near the TN/MS border as of 3:30 AM CDT along a weak, slow moving cold front and will continue pushing to the southeast for the next several hours. Temperatures won't be quite as hot today as slightly cooler air moves in behind the front, but we'll still get up to the low to mid 90s across the area. As warmer dewpoints pool along this frontal boundary today, heat indices will peak in the 100 to 105F range in our southernmost tier of counties. A deep upper level trough just to our north should also help keep temperatures near normal tomorrow as well.
Temperatures will remain near or just below seasonable levels with the lingering troughing aloft. Temperatures will not stray too far from the calculated normals, perhaps ending up a degree or two lower due to lingering troughing aloft.
Broad high pressure over the desert southwest will continue to drive afternoon highs to several degrees above average through at least the weekend.
- Seasonable temperatures through Thursday - Small chance of afternoon showers this afternoon northern sections The main synoptic features will continue to be a massive dome of high pressure over the Great Basin and southwestern states and troughing over eastern Canada and the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, at the surface, broad high pressure extended from central Canada to the southern Plains. This trough will pivot southeast across the Great Lakes through tonight. Thus, look for seasonable to slightly below seasonable temperatures Thursday with afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s.
Thursday will see slightly cooler temperatures and a chance of thunderstorms for Southwestern Montana.
515 AM MDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Significant upper-level ridging will remain anchored over the Four Corners region over the next 24-48 hours with several disturbances expected to traverse the northern fringe of the ridge across south east Wyoming & the western Nebraska Panhandle. Showers and storms could become a bit more numerous later Thursday as a more pronounced disturbance lifts northeast from the Great Basin along w/ a surface cold front pushing southward across the area.
High pressure centered in the western North Atlantic is currently maintaining gentle breezes across the Florida Keys coastal waters. Winds will freshen from the east to southeast on Thursday as the Atlantic high pressure builds over the region.
557 AM EDT Wed Jul 13 2022 A secondary cold front with slightly drier air will swing into the northern territories this morning.
A broad area of high pressure over the region is producing a clear sky, light winds, and slightly below normal temperatures.
629 AM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Quiet conditions continue across the region, with current observations showing light and variable winds and temperatures in the low to mid 60s. In regard to temperatures, have highs ranging from the lower 80s across SW Minnesota to lower 90s along the MO River Valley. Otherwise, expect lows to remain on the milder side, as temperatures only fall into the low to mid 60s. Could even see a few locations along the MO River rise into the lower 100s.
High pressure will remain centered over the Four Corners region over the coming days. Over the coming week the center of high pressure in the mid levels will essentially remain over the Four Corners region. The position of the high will be favorable to the continued transport of moisture from over the Gulf of California and northwest Mexico into Arizona.
\/Hodanish Key messages: 1) Daily chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the higher terrain and I-25 Corridor.
Hot conditions will continue through the weekend as a broad ridge remains centered over the Four Corners Region.
533 AM EDT Wed Jul 13 2022 The axis of the Atlantic subtropical ridge has lifted just north of the area. The ridge axis will remain north of the Florida Keys through Thursday, maintaining an east to southeast wind regime for the area. An upper level trough will move across the eastern Great Lakes region and into the New England region, result in a weakening and retreating subtropical ridge axis.
Drier air will continue to filter in across the northern half of the state today in the wake of the cold front.
645 AM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Key Messages: - Warmer today but remaining fairly comfortable thanks to lowish humidity. Temperatures will be a couple degrees warmer today compared to yesterday, but dewpoints in the low 60s will keep heat indices essentially the same as the ambient temperature. Mid level ridging builds in tomorrow in association with a 596 dam 500 mb high centered over southeastern Colorado, ushering in the return of southerly low level flow. This will also signal the end of the cool 60 degree overnight periods with lows Thursday night back into the low to mid 70s.