Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An area of low pressure may pull moisture back into eastern Arizona by the middle and end of the week supporting some late season showers and storms. Temperatures as low as the upper 40s were reported this morning in the lower deserts near Arizona City. For this afternoon, expecting high temperatures roughly one degree warmer than those observed yesterday and still below average. With the main jet core now translated towards the eastern side of the trough, the central vorticity core will lift through the Rockies leaving neutral to weak warm advection in its wake over Arizona the next several days. However with much of the flow pattern blocked across the southern Conus, full latitudinal troughing will linger through the forecast area keeping H5 heights hovering around 576dm and muting a more rapid and substantial warming trend.
Activity is expected to increase in intensity and areal coverage again later this morning and this afternoon across the lower Trans Pecos Region and Big Bend as another wave in the southwest flow aloft tracks up from Mexico and interacts with daytime heating and the topography. Beyond today unsettled weather is expected to continue through the work week due to a large and nearly stalled upper level low pressure system residing across the western states.
The region remains positioned between a deep upper level trough over the Rockies and a weak cutoff low over the northern Gulf coast. This cutoff low will continue retrograding to the west as the deeper trough progresses further east through the period. Highs tomorrow will be a few degrees cooler across the west where higher cloud cover and more rainfall is expected throughout the day.
Rain has brought plenty of moisture around the area and the terminals remain saturated in the lower levels of the atmosphere, so there could be brief periods of visibility restrictions and low ceilings that get into the IFR, but wind speeds could be the one factor that limits these conditions.
The upper ridge will remain over the region the next few days however a weakening system will move across the Pacific northwest tonight and Monday with mostly cloudy skies.
Upper level pattern remains amplified with an upper low over the Great Basin and ridging over the Great Lakes and Ohio river valley. A weak upper low was noted over the Florida panhandle.
949 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 High pressure will continue to build across the region into the mid week period.
An upper low over Utah will track northeast today, keeping cool and wet weather in place. Another upper low will likely impact mainly southern and eastern Utah during the second half of the week. Cold upper low continues to drift slowly northeast across north central Utah near Strawberry Reservoir this morning. The warm advection wrap around moisture is filling in along the central and southern Wasatch Front this morning and should persist through this afternoon as the lower level wind flow becomes northwest. Farther south the precipitation has become showery and this trend will continue through today as the low drifts away from this portion of the state. Ceilings will bounce between the low end of VFR and MVFR today as a cool and moist northwest flow becomes established by this afternoon.
central Rockies upper low will continue to dominate our weather pattern over the next couple of days as it slowly shifts northeast and fills in. Despite upper low shifting through to the northeast we will still be in a cyclonic pattern with increasing northwest flow in the mid levels by the latter part of Monday. Otherwise any snow accumulations will amount to a dusting in the foothills or higher ridges.
421 AM PDT Sun Sep 24 2017 This week will begin with cooler than average temperatures today and Monday.
Well-defined upper low was spinning over southern UT. Good short range model/ensemble consensus with the northeast track of the UT upper low into central WY by Monday morning, and western ND Monday night. Diffluent flow in the mid/upper levels ahead of upper low will maintain the wet and unseasonably cool weather through Monday. Periods of moderate snowfall will occur with the heavier showers over the higher mountain peaks, especially the Snowy Range. The higher mountain passes will become snow-covered with poor visibilities. Monday will be the transition day as the upper trough to the west weakens.
00Z model guidance in very good agreement showing weak upper low caught inside long wave, high amplitude ridge to continue drifting southwest away from the state taking any convection with it. Still looking at dry and above seasonal normal temperatures through the work week as the region remains under weak upper ridging with persistent northeasterly low-level flow maintaining a stable airmass over the forecast area. Will see milder temperatures and at least a slight chance for precipitation returning as we head into the weekend as the upper ridge breaks down.
Outside of the low clouds, isolated to scattered convection will be possible again this afternoon and evening, though pinpointing the terminal impacts will be left to future forecasts. /issued 353 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017/ Heavy rain and flooding concerns highlight the forecast for the Water vapor imagery and upper-air data this morning show a large upper low centered over the Great Basin with a jetstreak moving northward through NM and the southern Rockies. The highest chance for heavy rain will likely be found across the Caprock, in closer proximity to the large-scale ascent. A cold front enters the picture late Monday.
618 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 The region is in between an upper level ridge to the east and a deep trough to the west. High pressure is still in control of our weather pattern today. Upper levels height levels may just be a tad lower than previous days which means high temperatures may just be a degree or two cooler than yesterday. The deep trough over the western U.
High pressure over the Great Basin will force weak to moderate offshore flow over Southern California this week. The dry northeast winds will lower humidity, and bring warmer days and continued cool nights.
Late this week, we look for a cold front that is likely to increase winds and seas.
Large area of strong high pressure and dry air remain over the Great Lakes region and the Ohio Valley early this morning. with the pronounced upper level ridge axis aligned within this same area. Closest convection remains well upstream along and just behind a persistent inverted trough extending from Texas thru the Central Plains to near the Arrowhead of Minnesota. keeping general thunder west of our CWA closer to the inverted trough. Afternoon highs will range from the upper 80s in Eastern Upper Michigan to the lower 90s for most of Northern Lower Michigan. Expect another muggy night as temps drop into the low to mid 60s.
700 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Early this morning, water vapor imagery depicted a large upper low centered over the Great Basin, with a tropical connection from the Eastern North Pacific and Mexico northward into the central High Plains and Northern Plains. Much cooler air in the 40s/50s resides behind the front, with warmer than normal temperatures in the 60s/70s out ahead of the front.
High pressure will slide eastward along the eastern Gulf Coast states and winds will increase from the south through the day. This will certainly mean warmer conditions later tonight, as lows trend closer to their seasonal lows. Early morning temps Sat look to only fall near/just below the freezing mark for most locations, which is right around normal for this time of the yr. Lows Sat night may only fall closer to the 40F mark, while highs Sun rebound further into mainly the lower 60s. With moisture also spreading back into the area from the S, some rainfall does look to form W of the area near the end of the short term period, as weak dynamical lift develops over the Lower MS Valley in advance of an approaching cold front from the W.
301 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 Low pressure around 990mb tracking north of Lk Superior this aftn. Temps have stayed in the low to mid 30s elsewhere.
352 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 A large area of high pressure centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley will maintain fair skies for the next few days.
/issued 311 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018/ Persistent low to mid level troughing today and Saturday will lead to some breezy conditions developing both afternoons while continue low level warm advection will see temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s today and 70s Saturday.
The upper level trough that brought wintry precip and bitterly cold temperatures continues to lift northeast. A piece of that trough was pinched off and is located in Texas. Increasing 500mb heights from the exiting trough and moisture/cloud increase from disturbance to the west will result in significant rises in nighttime lows. At the same time, scattered showers will be possible as this week upper trough/low drifts east across the northern gulf coast.
With 925 hpa temps remaining a few degrees above freezing, expect lows to be relatively mild near seasonal averages.
Southwesterly winds will continue to bring warmer temperatures in to the region through today. The combination of cold ground or remaining snow cover, warm moist air and a flat upper level ridge moving across the plains will combine to produce low stratus and the potential for widespread fog across the region tonight. Southerly surface flow will continue through the day Saturday allowing temperatures to climb into the lower to middle 50s as a storm system develops and begins to move across the plains.
324 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018 An upper level trough is digging southward over the west coast, and an upper low is over the Texas coast. The upper trough out west will move further east on Saturday putting the area under southwest flow aloft.
1235 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 High pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will move east across the Gulf Coast states today and tonight.
406 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 Low pressure around 990mb tracking north of Lk Superior this aftn. Temps have stayed in the low to mid 30s elsewhere.
201 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 A large area of high pressure centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley will maintain fair skies for the next few days.
Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicates a weak upper level trough across the Northern Gulf Coast. In the lower levels, high pressure is located to the south with southwesterly to westerly flow across the area. Seeings clouds to the southwest on visible satellite imagery across the Lower Mississippi River Valley and expect these clouds will move into the forecast area late tonight. Due to this, lows will be warmer to the west across the Plateau and range from the mid 20s to low 30s areawide. If precipitation does occur Saturday morning, it would be in the form of freezing drizzle/drizzle.
309 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 Cold high pressure lingers across the deep south through tonight.
Deep and unstable trough was working through the Great Basin. Rich moisture was on the front side of this trough and was pushing right into the forecast area. The trough was in the process of splitting, but enough moisture and instability around for areas of precipitation to occur today, into this evening. Otherwise, snow showers will taper off from northwest to southeast as the trough slides across the forecast area. This weekend will be drier as the northern part of the splitting trough slides through.
The midlevel trough that will impact our weather this weekend is currently located just off the west coast of CA and is forecasted to cut off from the main flow as it deepens over the Four Corners region. Ahead of the approaching trough westerly flow aloft is supporting the lee-side trough, which has resulted in an increase in the lower tropospheric pressure gradient. Lee-side cyclogenesis occurs in southeast CO as the deepening midlevel low pressure ejects out of the Rockies.
Expect winter driving conditions if heading into the high country this weekend, particularly above 5,000 feet.
221 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 Arctic high pressure over the southeastern United States will slowly move south through Saturday. May cancel the winter weather advisory for black ice prior to 12 PM expiration as sfc temperatures warm well above freezing. While temperatures at the surface were in the lower 20s, at 300 ft AGL, temperatures were in the upper 30s. A minor s/w passing to our north and a weak area of high pressure to our south will maintain this wly flow through tonight. So while areas that have bare ground will see afternoon temperatures in the lower 50s, temperatures in the low-mid 40s will be common where widespread snow covers the ground. The snow melt regions should continue to struggle with highs in the lower 50s.
Toward the surface, a sprawling 1029mb high pressure area was analyzed over interior southwest Alabama just west of Evergreen. The combination of gradual increasing clouds from west to east along with weak warm air advection will help keep overnight lows much warmer from previous nights with readings ranging from the upper 20's northeast to near the freezing mark southwest. Adhered to the cooler side of guidance overnight due to the continued trend of temperatures averaging cooler at night/warmer during the day as has been observed the past few days. The higher than usual temperature swings could be attributed to some influence by the persistently dry surface soil conditions as depicted in recent drought monitor outlooks. Dry conditions will persist through the short-term period as despite increased amounts of moisture aloft the lower levels remain too dry to support any precipitation.
308 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 Currently - A high pressure system centered in the extreme southeastern United States is producing moderate northeast to east breezes across the Florida Keys. Forecast - The high pressure system to our north will elongate eastwards into the Atlantic. Lower level moisture associated with the old front will pivot back northwest and north, wrapping around the western edge of the lower trop ridge. This a long with an assault on the subsidence inversion by a passing mid and upper level trough will both destabilize and moisten the lower trop.
120 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 Arctic high pressure over the southeastern United States will slowly move south through Saturday. May cancel the winter weather advisory for black ice prior to 12 PM expiration as sfc temperatures warm well above freezing. While temperatures at the surface were in the lower 20s, at 300 ft AGL, temperatures were in the upper 30s. A minor s/w passing to our north and a weak area of high pressure to our south will maintain this wly flow through tonight. So while areas that have bare ground will see afternoon temperatures in the lower 50s, temperatures in the low-mid 40s will be common where widespread snow covers the ground. The snow melt regions should continue to struggle with highs in the lower 50s.
Expect this moisture to remain over much of northeast Colorado through tonight, with some thinning on Saturday as the flow backs more to the southwest as trof approaches. Any showers will hold off until Saturday night period (see below) Models continue to converge of a single solution as they show the closed upper low passing over the Four Corners Saturday night, a bit later than what earlier model runs indicated. Models also indicate a later arrival time for the cold front on the plains.
1005 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018 High pressure remains centered over Alabama this morning. Southerly winds on the back side of the high have already warmed temperatures into the 30s across the Mid-South. /issued 301 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018/ Temperatures are in the low to middle 20s across most of the Midsouth, likely cooling another 2-4 degrees by sunrise. Temperatures will warm quickly, with moist of the region above freezing before midday. Temperatures will remain above freezing for several days. still a little below normal at most locations, but much warmer than we have endured for most of 2018. Clouds will return to the Midsouth tonight as a low latitude trough tracks along the Gulf Coast.
In the lower elevations (below about 2500 feet) it's just rain showers. This is all a result of cool, moist, onshore flow being forced over topography, and it is all being aided by an associated upper trough axis moving onshore right now. High resolution model guidance shows showers starting to dry up this afternoon over much of the area as the trough axis moves east.
1136 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 High pressure will maintain dry and warmer weather through Saturday. A generally cloud-free afternoon is expected as high pressure passes by to the south. Intensifying warm advection under building upper high pressure in advance of a Cntrl Rockies-to-Plains low will drive Upper Ohio temperature well above the averages for the start of the new week.
1131 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018 Broad southwest flow leading to ample warm air advection this morning as high pressure continues sliding into the Deep South and pressure falls occur well off to our west. Despite what appears to be a strong subsidence inversion, gusty southwest winds may be able to mix some of this warmer air aloft down to the surface. Warm air advection expected to continue overnight with lows only expected to fall the lower to middle 30s, which should feel warm considering temperatures of recent weeks. , broad southerly flow will prevail across the lower and mid- Mississippi Vly with increasing moisture advection thanks to a wide open Gulf of Mexico.
Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer tonight with lows mainly in the mid to upper 30s. It will be very warm on Saturday with afternoon highs in the lower to mid 70s.
249 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 Low clouds streaming northeastward from Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley will continue to surge forward, moving into central Kentucky after midnight and spreading throughout the region Saturday. By evening and into Saturday night patchy light rain or drizzle will be possible in a good low level moisture feed behind high pressure off the SC/GA coast. Temperatures will remain above freezing Saturday night so any precipitation will stay liquid.
232 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 High pressure provides dry and milder weather through Saturday.
The lower levels will remain too dry to support any PoP's so a dry forecast will prevail through the short term period.
Highs today will range from the low-mid 30s E half to the low to mid 40s W half.
However, along with the warmer weather tomorrow, low level moisture will stream up into the area tomorrow and bring overcast skies by the afternoon. Temps tonight are expected to be right around freezing while temps tomorrow afternoon should be similar to today, but a tad lower because of the clouds. With the pattern becoming more amplified with a ridge across the eastern half of the US and a trough across the west, the low pressure area associated with the next weather system is expected to move northeast toward the northern Great Lakes region and remain west and northwest of our CWA.
/issued 900 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2018/ High pressure will move slowly east from the Southeastern United States into the Western Atlantic waters through tonight. Maximum temperatures on Saturday are forecast to rise to the lower 70s, just shy of average for this time of year.
On the weather maps, a positive tilt southern stream long-wave upper trof extends from the Lower MS River Valley, southwest into TX. Within the trof axis, a thickening shield of clouds was present and gradually moving east. At the surface, high pressure axis over the deep south tonight is progged to move east, with its axis aligned more over the southeast by Saturday. The upper trof axis moves east over the central Gulf coast during the day Saturday with more cloud cover.
1208 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 High pressure centered over the Gulf Coast states will extend up into the region through Saturday.
1241 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018 Mostly sunny early this afternoon and finally above freezing area wide.
1037 AM MST Fri Jan 19 2018 Southwest flow aloft will increase throughout today continuing the warmer than normal high temperatures. Its surface cold front will move across the eastern Uinta mountains after about 4 pm this afternoon and reach extreme northwest Colorado this evening. The cold front stalls over central Utah tonight and Saturday morning so unsure how much snow will fall over NE Utah until the front passes. Saturday afternoon it looks like the upper trough will start moving more steadily east, which should push the cold front into extreme western CO late Saturday afternoon.
221 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 With high pressure passing south of the area, a southwest flow will bring milder air through the weekend, with a warm front passing Saturday.
High pressure at the surface will remain ridged across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee river valley through the period. Coincident with that, Low pressure aloft will be developing/drifting into/across the lower Mississippi valley. Anticipate Highs nearing 40 today to increase another 5 to 7 degrees tomorrow, with Lows following a similar pattern (or tad better) nightly, from their bottom out levels near the freezing mark tonight.
A trough moving onshore on the west coast this afternoon will shift to the Great Basin on Saturday.
311 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018 Clouds continue to spread into the Mid-South ahead of a weak upper level low pressure system that is developing over East Texas. The clouds have kept temperatures cooler than expected today. The clouds will likely hang around the entire weekend as the weak upper level low tracks eastward through Southern Mississippi on Saturday and another low pressure system develops over the Plains. Southerly winds will continue across the area which will continue to help bring warmer temperatures into the area. Expect highs on Saturday to be about 10 degrees warmer than today.
With the cloud cover continuing, temperatures tonight will be considerably warmer than lately with most locations not dropping below freezing.
209 PM MST Fri Jan 19 2018 An upper trough swings through the West Coast tonight, then undercuts Montana. This will leave a ridge to our north in Canada, allowing for clearing skies from the north. Cooler air will drift in, enhanced by these clearing skies. The weekend ahead will feature a splitting trough moving over the region with the colder air from the northern stream affecting Northeast Montana. With a much colder start to the day, highs will struggle to reach above freezing.
This will keep lows from falling too much, with temps only dropping into the lower 30s.
1123 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018 Clouds looking to hold firm across the region today, as an upper low moves ovhd. /issued 630 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018/ For the 19/12Z terminal forecast will prevail VFR flight categories with ceilings from 4-5 KFT for most locations and expecting the low level moisture to be trapped underneath an inversion.
1217 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 High pressure will move east through the southeast states this weekend.
400 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 High pressure passes to the south through Saturday, while deepening low pressure tracks across Eastern Canada. A weak cold front will pass through the area Saturday night.
With high pressure overhead and a cool and dry airmass still in place, the only hindrance to radiational cooling tonight may be the approach of some high cloudiness from the west. These clouds should help keep temperatures several degrees warmer than last night. However, normally colder locations will likely drop to near (or just below freezing) for one more night.
Southwest flow with high pressure centered over the Southeast U.
With mostly sunny skies, guidance is consistent in advertising temps around 10 degrees warmer today than yesterday. Late in the day visible satellite shots yesterday hard to get to pick out the state of the frozen stuff with temps getting back below freezing, so am assuming there is some around and am leaning towards the middle to cooler end of the guidance for highs today.
A low pressure system will move from the northwest Gulf coast to the LA/MS/AK area by late Friday, and then over AL by Saturday morning.