Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
upper ridging creating few to sct cu decks again this afternoon. /ISSUED / Southeast Texas's above normal temperatures will continue for the next several days as mid/upper level ridging builds across the area.
Surface analysis had a 1024mb high centered over the mid Atlantic seaboard that was ridging back to the southwest across the Gulf coast states. Together the ridging surface and aloft will lead to another warmer than normal and dry day today.
Water Vapor Satellite/12Z upper air analysis places an upper level ridge axis over the Southern Plains and portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley this morning. At the surface, a cold front extends from the Great Lakes region back through the Upper Midwest and the Northern Plains. /issued 355 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016/ An unseasonably strong upper level ridge of high pressure will build over the Mid South today and persist through mid week.
/issued 420 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016/ An upper ridge will slowly move east across the Southern Plains and into the Southeastern U.
A low level ridge of high pressure will remain over the area, with drier ridging building in aloft through at least the middle of the week. 500 mb ridging will return behind the wave from the lower MS river valley through tonight. Clouds may be a bit less tonight under the building ridge but moderating thicknesses will allow minimum temperatures to recover another degree or two in most areas. At 200 AM Sunday: On Monday morning and upper ridge will extend from TX to Hudson Bay, while an upper trough will be over the Western USA.
Rain will change to snow over the higher elevations of the Sierra tonight with snow accumulations of up to 4 inches above 8000 feet north of Kings Canyon by Monday morning.
1025 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016 High pressure off the New Jersey coast will shift southward today and remain to our south through midweek.
/issued 344 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016/ Deeper moisture having a tough time displacing the ridge over the area but it will win out eventually today.
617 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016 As previously advertised, our weather will be dominated by the interaction between an upper level ridge to our south and upper level trough on the West Coast. The cold front stalled in eastern NE and across central IA, helping calm the winds and clear the clouds overnight creating ideal conditions for fog. Rain chances for northeastern MO will continue to diminish through 7 am as the stalled cold front retreats back north. Monday will be even warmer and windier than today with highs in the upper 80s, low 90s and wind gusts up to 30 mph for the entire area.
Templer Previous Discussion - Synoptic Setup: Hot high pressure resides over the Southern US Plains while cool pacific air is moving inland over the Pacific Northwest.
Satellite imagery will be monitored for any needed adjustments/removals with the low cloud groups. The highest speeds and gusts are expected at KABI. /issued 421 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016/ (Today and Tonight) With an upper level high shifting slowly east over Texas, well-above normal temperatures will continue across our area today and tonight. With the 850mb thermal ridge expanding a bit farther east into our area, highs today are expected to be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday.
BY 11 AM MOST OF THE LOWEST VISIBILITY WILL BE IMPROVING. A sharp gradient has set up along the Highway 20 corridor and not likely expand much northward as a weak boundary has set up over northern Iowa. Regardless, expanded the Dense Fog Advisory to include the Highway 20 corridor and extended it until 14z. Even with the low stratus hanging around for much of the day, temperatures should have no trouble rising well into the 70s to around 80 today with enough WAA and the warm start this morning.
An upper level trough will remain over the region with another weather system moving through it currently approaching the coast. Otherwise temepratures will cooler then normal today and some breezy conditions.
921 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016 High pressure continues to ridge across the area from the NE with an upper trough settling southeast over the state today and then shifting east of the state overnight. Temps will warm into the lower to mid 80s. An SCEC is likely again late tonight across the offshore waters as the E/NE flow continues under high pressure.
/issued 345 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016/ WV imagery shows the upper lvl ridge centered over Texas, which resulted in a record high tie at KMAF yesterday. Unfortunately, the ridge is forecast to develop eastward over the next few days, allowing a slight cooling trend.
06Z surface data has a cold front from central Lake Superior into northwest Kansas. The showers and isolated thunderstorms will slowly end west of the Mississippi before sunrise as the cold front starts moving into the area. The cold front will stall out across the area during the morning and then dissipate during the afternoon. As forcing increases during the evening, isolated showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will develop north of highway 30 near a developing warm front. The warm front will then slowly move north after midnight and confine any rain to the highway 20 corridor. bumped temps and wind up and dropped dew points a bit anticipating we will mix out the very warm temps at 925/850 mb ahead of the cold front progged to move into Iowa during the day.
/ISSUED / 402 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016 Southeast Texas's above normal temperatures will continue for the next several days as mid/upper level ridging builds across the area.
High pressure will return for the latter half of the week. A cold front is stalled near a KENV-KSLC-KEVW line this morning and a broad area of rain with high elevation snow has developed along and behind this boundary over northern Utah and southwest Wyoming. The initial wave that brought the cold front through is ejecting to the northeast. With the arrival of the main trough into northwest Utah early tomorrow, the front should be on the move again, reaching central Utah by Monday afternoon.
Thermal ridge will remain across the region today, with another very mild day expected. The warmest readings will reside west of a line from Valentine to North Platte, where a drying downslope wind help boost highs into the lower and mid 80s. This will keep highs cooler and have lower to mid 70s for these areas. Weak upper level ridging will keep dry conditions and warmer temperatures in the forecast for Monday. High temperatures Monday will range from the low 70s across Sheridan county to the low 80s across the southeastern forecast area.
There will be breaks in the clouds which should allow temperatures to reach the mid 60s in the lower valleys. Moist southwesterly flow will aid in the development of showers over the higher terrain this afternoon. The Western Magic Valley will also see an increase in showers this afternoon as yesterdays frontal boundary shifts northward ahead of the next upper level trough. Upper level trough, currently off the Oregon Coast, will moving across the forecast area overnight tonight. The lower valleys should see at least a tenth of an inch of rain except for the Western Magic Valley and Southern Twin Falls County where up to half an inch of rain is possible as the boundary remain stationary just south of the Nevada border. The trough exits late Monday Morning with partial clearing for Monday afternoon.
1159 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016 Remains of a weak upper level trough will continue to weak and eject out of the region as an upper level ridge builds in this evening through Monday.
Weak upper low over central GA has allowed enough moisture to linger for a couple of light showers over our southeast counties this morning. Highs look on track to reach into the low to mid 80s except on the plateau.
Remainder of the day should see warm and humid conditions with no significant shower activity expected, as upper level ridge centered over the southern plains takes hold. High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue through Monday.
/issued 355 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016/ An unseasonably strong upper level ridge of high pressure will build over the Mid South today and persist through mid week.
1145 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016 Remains of a weak upper level trough will continue to weak and eject out of the region as an upper level ridge builds in this evening through Monday.
228 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016 A low pressure system will bring rain through the region Today, especially this morning. The weather will be cool over the weekend, thanks to an upper trough lingering over the Northeast. Low pressure system will bring a batch of rain through the region today, especially this morning. Primary upper trough, however, will not come through until Tonight. 850mb temperatures will drop below freezing towards dawn.
415 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016 A somewhat cooler airmass will spread across Oklahoma and north Texas over the next couple of days. However, once the upper low reaches Oklahoma, it may remain overhead for the next several days.
228 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016 A cold front will bring showers and isolated thunderstorms through the region overnight. Cooler and drier air will filter into the region Thursday into Friday. Lows tonight will fall into the 50s, with highs on Thursday recovering into the lower to mid 60s. Continued deep layer southwest flow ushering in ample moisture, coupled with increased forcing/right entrance upper jet support and weak elevated instability with northern stream trough amplification into the Great Lakes region, will support this increased coverage along southeastward advancing frontal zone. Cooler/drier air filters in post-frontal on Thursday with highs 10-20 degrees cooler than this afternoon.
/Issued 421 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016/ The advertised cold front has already made good progress across the Panhandles and is currently situation from Happy to Lipscomb. Tomorrow we should be mostly precip free as the upper low moves further south over southern Arizona/northern Mexico. The upper low cutting off across ern NM/AZ will retrograde west through Friday as it opens back up into the srn stream (split flow pattern).
Onshore flow and some coastal clouds and fog will develop over the weekend and bring cooler weather near the coast.
452 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016 High pressure continues to be anchored across the southeastern states and across the Florida peninsula and regional Gulf and Atlantic waters. The 00z sounding indicated a prominent low level version with moisture trapped in the lower levels with additional moisture in the upper levels. High pressure will linger across the region today, but the pressure gradient will start to lessen and regional winds will start to decrease. A low level inversion will persist today with moisture restricted to the lower levels with additional moisture in the upper levels. The guidance trends continue to indicate a cold front entering north Florida late Friday, with just isolated showers across the Atlantic waters and metro areas expected in advance of the front on Friday.
As this system approaches, clouds will continue to increase allowing for mild temperatures this morning and slightly cooler afternoon highs. But depending on how quickly the clouds diminish, some valleys could dip into the lower 40s by daybreak. Friday afternoon, temperatures are only expected to reach the low 60s which is normal for this time of year. VFR conditions are expected to hold on through the morning and early afternoon period as high pressure retreats and a cold front moves in from the northwest.
409 AM MDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Upper level low spinning along the AZ/Mexico border early this morning, with scattered convection across AZ/NM and a large area of tsra across nwrn TX. For today, upper low moves very little, with perhaps just a slight northward wobble toward srn AZ late in the day. Tonight, upper low slowly pushes northward into srn AZ, with moisture gradually spreading out of NM into CO late. Elsewhere, only a slow increase in cloud cover is expected, which will keep min temps slightly warmer than the past few nights across the region. Snow likely for the higher elevations Friday night through Main concern in the extended will be an upper low that will move N-NE though AZ on Fri.
547 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016 High pressure over the region will weaken ahead of an approaching cold front today. The cold front will move through the area late tonight. Cooler weather will occur behind the front over the weekend. It will be a warm day ahead of the approaching cold front. The cold front is forecast to move through the area during the 06z to 12z time frame tonight. Moisture should remain limited with h85 westerly flow ahead of the cold front. A little more moisture and lift associated with the upper trough supports the higher pop in the north. Otherwise, it should be dry behind the cold front. The GFS and ECMWF displayed ridging dominating through the medium-range period.
316 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Western upper trof has split today with the southern lobe dropping into Mexico while the northern stream has swept into the Great Lakes at this hour. Anticipate clearing will make its way across the forecast area by around noon, and leave sunny skies behind and should be able to mix highs into the low 70s. The first few periods should bring steadily increasing and thickening high cloud as the moisture aloft works its way east from the old upper low the weak upper ridge.
A low pressure system moving out of northern Mexico into Arizona later today will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to portions of Mohave County through Friday.
High pressure ridge will weaken across the region Today, with a cold front approaching from the Northwest.
326 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016 07z/2am surface analysis shows slow-moving cold front along the I-72 corridor. then will drop into the lower to middle 40s tonight. The coolest day of the forecast period will be Friday, when deep-layer northerly flow keeps temps in the lower to middle 60s. After that, upper ridging will build back into the region, allowing temperatures to climb back into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees over the upcoming weekend.
An impressive 2-3 standard deviations upper ridge will control the weather in the short term.
1240 AM CDT THU NOV 3 2016 Flight conditions will start VFR with ceilings, then overnight areas of MVFR will form as a cold front gradually sags into AR. Winds will be light and variable or light south to start, then become southwest to west Thursday morning, then northwest to north behind the cold front. Further north, another cold front was moving south into the Dakotas and northern Minnesota this afternoon.
332 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Tonight-Friday: Ridge axis drifts across forecast area tonight. Present indications are that a slight downslope component on western side of ridge should preclude widespread radiational fog.
A weakening frontal boundary may bring some cloud cover, increase in winds, slightly cooler temps, and a few showers to far northern NV by the end of the weekend.
350 AM MDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Partly cloudy to mostly clear skies overnight have allowed temperatures to drop near to below freezing for many valley locations in western Montana and north central Idaho this morning. The best chance for locally dense fog and freezing fog will be northwest Montana and north-central Idaho.
Dry and cooler Thursday night through Friday night as high pressure builds in.
240 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Today will be quite mild as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Pictures from space in the water vapor channel show well the upper ridge over the Gulf states and Carolinas, while the IR channel depicts an overall scarcity of clouds across the region. Overnight temperatures will remain mild ahead of an approaching cold front. Primary headline this period is air mass change as high pressure cell from Canada moves SE into the area.
/DC/ Quiet weather will continue overnight with lows in the low to mid 60s.
As this system approaches, clouds will continue to increase allowing for mild temperatures this morning and slightly cooler afternoon highs. But depending on how quickly the clouds diminish, some valleys could dip into the lower 40s by daybreak. Friday afternoon, temperatures are only expected to reach the low 60s which is normal for this time of year. The ridge aloft is expected to be transient, as a progressive trough drops ESE across the Great Lakes and New England by midweek. This brings NW flow aloft for our area and allows a weakening cold front to drop in from the north. VFR conditions are expected to hold on through the morning and early afternoon period as high pressure retreats and a cold front moves in from the northwest.
Forecast remains straightforward over the next H24 as the strong high pressure ridge over the SE CONUS drifts south across north-central Florida and weakens through tonight. Maxes once again in the L-M80s, with mins a bit cooler (especially along the east coast), ranging from the L-M60s just about everywhere. Mid/upper level trough dives rapidly south and east from the Great Lakes region to offshore of the eastern U. This will push a cold front across the region Friday night (models have trended slower with the frontal passage as of late. Highs will reach the low 80s before the front begins to move into the area.
Upper air analysis last evening showed a ridge over the eastern half of the country and a cutoff low centered over the northern Gulf of California. At the surface, a cold front extended from a low near Breckenridge to Pecos to El Paso. The cold front will move slowly southward today reaching our northern border early this afternoon and our southern border by early Friday morning.
653 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Scattered light showers are expected early this morning as a cold front drops south across the area. Temperatures will be a little cooler than yesterday with highs in the lower to middle 60s. High pressure will build southeast across the Great Lakes tonight providing fair weather with lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
414 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Scattered light showers are expected early this morning as a cold front drops south across the area. Temperatures will be a little cooler than yesterday with highs in the lower to middle 60s. High pressure will build southeast across the Great Lakes tonight providing fair weather with lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
440 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Ridging aloft will get suppressed today and tonight as trough deepening over the Great Lakes pushes a front into the TN valley. Temperatures remain warm today but a little cooler max temperatures on Friday especially across the north. 41 Decent CAA kicking in behind short term front with a very dry airmass setting up shop for the weekend as the H5 ridge amplifies into the Great Lakes.
148 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Aloft: Split flow was over the Wrn USA with a newly-formed low over AZ and a ridge to its N. The ridge will gradually drift E and be over the fcst area tonight. Part of this high will break off and head E into the region today. but temps will warm into the low 70s.
A mid level ridge axis will gradually build over South Texas through the period. Kept the high risk of rip currents for Gulf facing beaches today.
An upper trough and associated cold front will drop southeast into the Southern Appalachians later today into the evening. One more very warm day is expected ahead of the front today with highs ranging from the middle and upper 70s north to the lower 80s south.
Latest sfc analysis shows the cold front now moving into the Big Bend area/lwr Trans Pecos. As the upper trough moves NE into AZ overnight, forecast soundings takes cigs/vibys down to LIFR most terminals, w/another round of convection overnight. An upper low has cut off from the main flow and settled along the AZ/Mexico border this morning. This combined with a cold front at the surface and moisture overriding the boundary is helping produce widespread showers and thunderstorms. Surface ridging will build across the area and drier air will try to filter into at least our northeastern zones later today. This should end most precip there with the heavy rain threat shifting into the higher terrain as the front hangs up there.
400 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Water vapor loop indicated a northwest-southeast upper level jet moving into a trough over Ontario. Upper level ridge from MT to SASK will move into the Northern Plains tonight. Model soundings indicate the boundary layer is saturated in the north today Upper level trough off the Pacific Northwest coast will ride the ridge and move into Ontario on Fri. Upper ridge will continue to build over the western North America then shift into central North America by 12Z Sun.
1120 PM MDT Wed Nov 2 2016 High pressure will be over the area tonight and Thursday with dry conditions and a gradual warming trend.
1053 PM PDT Wed Nov 2 2016 Weak high pressure will linger and confine the most substantial showers to the vicinity of the North Cascades and near the British Columbia border tonight into early Thursday.
Overall, this will continue an above seasonal forecast with the upper high bringing subsidence to the area. Have kept temperatures well above seasonal through the forecast as a result, with lows tonight generally in the 60s and highs tomorrow in the low to mid 80s, with a few upper 80s over the northeastern quarter of the fa, with a bit drier airmass allowing better daytime heating.
It will also be a warm night with lows generally in the low to mid 60s. The upper ridge centered over the GOMEX will retrograde as a trough deepens down the eastern seaboard sending a surface cold front through our CWA Thursday night/Friday morning. A much drier airmass will filter in behind the front but the cooler air will lag just enough that we are now anticipating warmer temperatures Friday afternoon than previous guidance was indicating. High temperatures will be in the mid 80s Thursday and the lower to possibly mid 80s on Friday.
245 AM CDT THU NOV 3 2016 Main concerns in this forecast are the chances of rain today to Friday morning as the cold front moves through AR. The upper high pressure ridge to the east of AR has moved more south, which will allow this boundary to drift southeast today. Today Through Friday Night Models do gradually sag the cold front southeast today, while they do limit convection potential due to weak upper dynamics and limited moisture.
The lower ceilings will form this evening as the front moves into the region.
327 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Cold front currently moving into northeast Oklahoma this morning near BVO extending SSW to west of MLC.
148 AM MDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Latest upper air analysis has a ridge over the western CONUS. Underneath the ridge is a closed low in the process of becoming cut-off over the Gulf of California. Today and tomorrow dry conditions with warmer than normal temperature are expected. The cut-off low over the Desert Southwest will slowly move northeast and merge back into the upper level flow.
637 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016 A crossing cold front will generate showers today and will usher in more seasonable temperature.
343 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Latest water vapor imagery shows split flow aloft over the nation's mid section with a building ridge over the western states and a closed low over the Mexico/AZ border. At the surface, a large area of high pressure was centered over the High Plains.
628 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016 Warm conditions are expected today as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Canadian high pressure will bring colder air into the Carolinas Friday through the weekend. Pictures from space in the water vapor channel show well the upper ridge over the Gulf states and Carolinas, while the IR channel depicts an overall scarcity of clouds across the region. Overnight temperatures will remain mild ahead of an approaching cold front. Primary headline this period is air mass change as high pressure cell from Canada moves SE into the area.
1107 PM MDT Wed Nov 2 2016 Upper flow over the CWA is northwesterly, with a weak wave pushing through the eastern Dakotas, ridging over the western CONUS, and a closed low over AZ. Upper level ridge will build over the western and central CONUS tonight into Thursday. Strong upper ridging will continue across the region through the end of the week.