Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1031 PM CST Thu Dec 15 2016 Strong west winds have materialized in the higher elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains this evening, with a 66 mph gust recorded on the Bowl RAWS at 16/338Z. Think high winds will hold off in the higher elevations of the Davis Mountains tonight, but more strong winds could occur in the Guadalupe Mountains, even in the lower elevations. Therefore, will begin the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains now, which will run through the day Saturday as h7 wind speeds increase to 85+kt over both mountain ranges.
Surface ridging is taking over this AM across the Gulf Coast as the previous front that attempted to move through has fallen apart.
A cold front will begin moving southward across the area on Wednesday. Any rainfall will be mixed with snow on the onset across the lower elevations of western Nebraska. 12z Models and ensembles have trended more progressive with the upper level trough.
357 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2016 Weak cold front pushing SE through central IL early this morning to bring yet another shift in generally light winds. As a cold front approaches from the central Plains.
Dry conditions once again across the region as upper level ridging is continuing to build in from the west. In response to the ridge moving closer to us we will see warmer temperatures today about 5ish degrees warmer compared to yesterday.
With some clouds persisting into tonight will see low temperatures a few degrees warmer than this morning with lows Wednesday morning in the mid to upper 40s inland and low to mid 50s along the coast. The upper trough that brought a slight increase in clouds today will continue to move off to our east, with light northwesterly flow on Wednesday and an upper level ridge building over our area on Thursday. A large area of high pressure at the surface will also build over our region throughout this period.
134 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2016 Upper trough currently over the area will continue to pivot eastward today with upper ridging slowly building in from our west through tonight. A scattering of clouds embedded within the trough, currently across southeast Georgia, will continue to shift southeastward and gradually dissipate this morning.
expect breezy southerly winds to increase ahead a developing low pressure system on the lee side of the Rockies. The focus this afternoon remains on the approaching cold front and upper level low forecast to cross the local area mid week. models now seem to be bringing the cold front across the local area early during the day Thursday. with this cooler airmass expected to be in place by the time the upper level low crosses the region.
Ridging at the surface and aloft will support strong warming across the area today with unseasonably warm temperatures, especially in the western areas where near record maximums in the lower 80s will be possible. While areas in the east will have no trouble tonight falling into the 40s, higher dewpoints will keep warmer temps in the west with lows by Thursday morning near 50.
Main update was to remove any mention of freezing rain from forecast grids. Have carried the highest pops (likely) near the border with Canada. Precipitation type should primarily be rain, with thermal profiles warm enough to support all liquid, but have some concern a few spots in the far north could have surface temperatures fall to near freezing overnight. Will have only a few small grid points with any freezing rain potential for a brief period late tonight, so will not draw any special attention to it for now.
Cooler and slightly drier weather is expected for the remainder of the work week with a chance of mountain showers mainly during the afternoon hours. The cool pattern will moderate by the weekend as moisture moves in from the southwest ahead of a deep offshore trough.
This spells widespread afternoon temperatures in the lower to middle 70s across the forecast area. Lee trough forms across the High Plains with a strengthening pressure gradient ahead of an approaching upper trough.
401 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2016 A ridge of high pressure will bring warmer than normal temperatures and dry conditions to eastern Kentucky today through Thursday. Conditions will be drier on Thursday, as southerly flow kicks in and temperatures warm into the lower 70s. A lee-side trough will move out from the Rockies and deepen as it heads towards the Plains. Ridging will sharpen up in the east, bringing well above normal temperatures to conclude the work week. The trough will continue to intensify as it heads into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley regions by early this weekend, bringing a sharp cold front through the area.
1110 PM EST Tue Nov 15 2016 High pressure builds into the area overnight before a weak disturbance moves through Wednesday.
/issued 349 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016/ (Tonight and Wednesday) Temperatures today have climbed 40 plus degrees from the cool morning lows, and into the lower to mid 80s this afternoon. An upper level ridge to our west will shift east across Texas tonight and Wednesday. Warm and dry conditions are in store again Wednesday, with full sunshine and upper level ridging over our area. With highs expected to be in the lower to mid 80s, the record highs at Abilene and San Angelo will be in jeopardy. Abilene record high 83 degrees, set in 2013 San Angelo record high 83 degrees, set in 1921 With lee trough developing to our west and increased surface pressure gradient, breezy conditions will develop as south winds increase.
Deep layer ridging south of the Four Corners is progged to continue eastward tonight and tomorrow. Given the very dry atmospheric column in place and ample subsidence provided by the ridge, another warm afternoon is on tap for WED, with highs rising to near 80/the lower 80s. As the ridge begins to shift east of the region WED night, MSTR will begin to return, with temperatures THU morning starting to moderate.
Longwave ridging over the central states builds into the eastern states through tonight as an upper trof near the eastern coastal states moves into the western Atlantic. Highs today will be in the mid to upper 70s, and lows tonight range from the mid 40s inland to the lower 50s at the coast.
As the main upper level trough crosses through the Florida Peninsula and the surface front passes into the Florida Straits early this morning, a much drier air mass can be seen on water vapor satellite imagery spreading over the region.
Weak high pressure will continue to slide east of the area from this evening into the overnight period. As this happens, a weak cold front/wind shift line will move into northern and perhaps central Missouri before stalling. Lows tonight are expected to dip into the lower to middle 40s under mainly clear skies. Temperatures will climb into the middle to upper 70s Thursday afternoon with winds gusting in excess of 30 mph and at time up to 40 MPH thanks to a strengthening low pressure moving across the plains and a tightening surface gradient.
The main 500 mb ridgeline will pass east of the area tonight, opening UT and CO to increasing southwest winds at the surface and aloft. The Pacific trough expected to give us a brief bout of winter will dig into the Great Basin late Wed. The surface cold front appears will be moving east of the SLC vicinity after midnight Wed. The Pacific storm and surface cold front with very cold air aloft for this time of year will move across the area Thursday. With a 700 mb cold pocket of -10 to -12 C travelling over the area Thursday morning, snowfall is expected Thursday morning over the lower valleys of northwest and central CO. Accumulations should be light and spotty and mainly in the higher areas of the valleys leading up to the surrounding mountains.
Water vapor imagery showing quick zonal flow aloft over the Northern and Central Rockies with upper ridge over southern Arizona. Despite the weak winds, 12Z sampled 850mb temperatures of 11C at TOP, 16C at LBF, and 18C at DDC signify the very warm mid-November airmass in place and 20Z surface temperatures in the lower 70s are common in the area. Upper ridge shifts east across Texas tonight into Wednesday as a trough enter the Great Basin. Mixing depths will be the main challenge, but feel fairly comfortable to go on the high end of guidance with highs in the mid to upper 70s. On Thursday an upper ridge will build over the center of the country, which will cause record warm temperatures to spread into the central plains.
Colder temperatures filtering over the area today as the cold front continues to move through eastern Idaho. Moisture remains over the Pacific Northwest under the influence of the trough, though most moisture manages to mostly split, with dry conditions over the majority of the area. Models in fair agreement with the trough axis pushing into eastern Idaho by Thursday morning with building northwest flow expected afterwards in response to an advancing ridge.
A stalled frontal boundary over southeast MS continues to pool moisture along and ahead of it where temps and dewpoints in the low to mid 50s exists. After the morning fog, high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will build over the Lower Mississippi River Valley on Wednesday. With full sun and dry ground conditions, despite the slightly cooler drier air over the region, highs areawide should climb into the upper 70s to near 80.
Otherwise the upper air pattern has a trof over the east coast while a ridge was building across the midwest. As the ridge moves east today expect another warm/dry day with highs in the low to mid 70s. Tonight will be cool with lows in the low to mid 40s under mostly clr skies. Thursday will be dominated by a strong upper ridge across the TN Valley.
Mild and dry weather conditions will persist on Wed-Thu before a cold front arrives ushering in more seasonable air and a slight chance for light precipitation late Thu. A vigorous mid/upper trough will move into the Rockies on Thursday driving a strong cold front into the Central Plains states. Wind speeds across central KS will subside within the prefrontal trough axis while windy conditions persist across much of south central and southeast KS. A record high temperature or two may fall across south central and southeast KS on Thu although cooler air will arrive over central KS.
A passing weather disturbance and associated cold front will bring gusty winds and cooler temperatures to the area today and tonight.
18Z surface data has high pressure from the western Great Lakes into the lower Mississippi Valley. Another cold front ran from northern Minnesota into southern South Dakota. Quiet and dry conditions will be seen from late this afternoon through midnight as the cold front moves through the area. After midnight, high pressure will build into the area.
1027 PM MST Tue Nov 15 2016 Upper ridge axis will move across the central High Plains tonight with falling heights on Wednesday ahead of the system entering the Great Basin.
/Issued 440 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016/ Downsloping, light winds and ridging have allowed record high temps to be reached across the Panhandles today. Amarillo has reached 82 degrees so far and broke the high temp from 1965, which was 80 degrees. Record highs will be likely to be reached again tomorrow as upper level ridging just begins to break down ahead of the long awaited upper level longwave trough. Models are in closer consensus for the passage of the trough; however, models have been running a bit low on max temps and high on dewpoints. Winds will be on the increase as the trough gets closer and the pressure gradient tightens. RH values will quickly increase Thursday night as a cold front pushes through the area.
The axis of the driving upper level trough is currently swinging through the FL peninsula, and expect showers to end over water by mid-morning as the trough crosses east of the region. Upstream soundings in TBW and XMR last evening show a very dry airmass behind the front, and already dewpoints in the low 50s are filtering into South Florida. Sunny and dry conditions are expected for today and tonight, with perhaps some clouds as a secondary upper level trough moves through late tonight.
401 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2016 A low pressure area over southern New England early this morning will drift slowly north into Quebec by tonight. This low will bring a chance of rain showers to the north country today.
118 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2016 A weak trough will move across the area on today.
All in all, looks like a quiet night with seasonally mild lows in the lower 30s to lower 40s. Highs are expected in the lower 60s in southwest Minnesota to near 70 in south central and Mo Valley.
1208 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2016 Low pressure will pull away from the region overnight followed by a weak trough that will move across the area on Wednesday.
Stronger warm advection begins in earnest into Wednesday and continues into Thursday as thermal ridging builds toward the state.
A cool upper level trough will continue to edge east over the Pacific Northwest tonight. This trough will be centered over the region Wednesday. Isolated showers will be possible at times elsewhere, though the Lower Columbia Basin and Yakima valley zones will have the least chances of showers.
High pressure over the Mississippi Valley will gradually push east and cross our forecast area Wednesday night and Thursday. Low pressure across Eastern New York and New England is impacting the Eastern Lake Ontario region with its last it of rain for a short while. A mid level trough and weak front, apparent more as a wind shift than anything, will approach from the Central Great Lakes by daybreak with scattered showers. Coverage will be rather spotty as well, as overall moisture associated with the trough will be limited by already depressed dewpoints in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
Sounds foggy anywhere the warmer air advects in over the cooler ground or bodies of water. /issued 403 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016/ Water vapor imagery reveals a changing longwave pattern as the upper trough has shifted along east coast with upper ridge now expanding from the Rockies out across the Plains. Consequently, temperatures have warmed considerably today across our region under mostly sunny skies and light winds with high pressure at surface. As the center of the high shifts east this evening and overnight, winds will return southerly and we are beginning to see early signs of that already across our far northwest zones. The warmer daytime temperatures will hang around a few more days as the upper ridge builds overhead for mid week.
An upper level trough will move east across the area tonight through Thursday. Bands of showers will wrap around the trough for the next couple of days, but showers will slowly decrease in coverage with time.
Cold front has now stalled over northwestern Alabama.
349 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2016 Weak cold front pushing SE through central IL early this morning to bring yet another shift in generally light winds. As a cold front approaches from the central Plains.
Weak cold advection and drier air overnight will allow for cooler temperatures overnight but minimums still expected a few degree either side of freezing and above average for this time of year.
Lows tonight from the 40s north and the lower 50s in the south.
342 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2016 00z regional RAOBS sampled an unseasonably strong upper ridge centered over northern Mexico while the low level thermal ridge over the High Plains was also sampled at seasonal extremes. The ridge shifts eastward today with thermal profiles warming and high temps unencumbered as skies remain clear.
Ridging aloft will continue to support a mild airmass over the region on Wednesday, with well above normal temperatures expected again. On Thursday a storm will begin to near the region, with WAA pcpn likely breaking out a head of the main upper trof.
A weak cold front over wrn WI will pass across srn WI late this evening into the overnight. An upper ridge will then build over the area into Wed nt. Strong low pressure will then track from the central Great Plains to the Lake Superior region. Breezy sly winds will prevail for late Wed night through Fri followed by brisk nwly winds for Sat-Sun via a cold frontal passage.
1257 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2016 Low pressure will pull away from the region overnight followed by a weak trough that will move across the area on Wednesday.
This trough is deepening the lee side trough over eastern WY resulting in very strong west-southwest winds across the wind corridors west of the Laramie Range. The highest gust thus far has been 86 mph at the Cooper Cove WYDOT site east of Arlington.
747 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 High pressure across the western Great Lakes will shift east tonight and be overhead for Monday.
As the high level cloud cover thins out in south central ND I do see some clearing in south central ND so idea of thinning or clearing sky into se ND seems reasonable. Timing of low pressure system into our area is a bit different with ECMWF a bit faster than other models.
Upper level ridging builds across the Southeast today, and then amplifies up the East Coast through midweek. Overnight lows have been cooler than expected the past couple nights. With light winds becoming easterly to southeasterly, overnight temps should be warmer, mid 50s to lower 60s.
Clear skies and a near calm wind tonight will allow for decent radiational cooling but warmer than normal morning lows will continue as well.
while weak cold front has dropped well to the south into southern Kentucky and the Ozarks. As the high shifts further away, winds will gradually veer to the southeast by this afternoon. With winds becoming more southerly and increasing due to a tightening pressure gradient, temperatures tonight will be considerably warmer than in recent nights. A cold front will begin to approach from the northwest Tuesday night: however, most model guidance favors post-frontal precip developing north of the KILX CWA across Iowa into northern Illinois.
High pressure aloft will settle over the Great Basin midweek. The associated cold front that surged south through the state overnight has slowed considerably over central through northeast Utah this morning. Convection will increase during the morning Tuesday as the upper trough closes in and the mid-level colder air arrives over northwest Utah. Splitting of the trough beginning Tuesday afternoon will limit the best organized convection to the north during the day.
A strong longwave trough along the Pacific NW/Northern CA Coast will move inland and split.
1022 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 Aviation section updated High pressure over the Great lakes will move on to the east coast.
Some increase in clouds may come late tonight as the low level flow turns SE, but should stay in the VFR range.
607 AM CDT Mon Oct 31 2016 Areas of fog were impacting much of the Ozarks this morning as high pressure slides east of the area and southerly winds return low level moisture to the area. This will also bring a return of temperatures in the lower 80s this afternoon.
High pressure over the Great lakes will move on to the east coast.
735 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 Ridging aloft will continue through the short term. Max temperatures on Tuesday should be a bit cooler mainly eastern zones due to an easterly wind flow.
1022 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 A front that slipped south of the area last night, will return as a warm front tonight.
Went ahead and added zone 107 (East Platte county) to the High Wind Warning. This trough is deepening the lee side trough over eastern WY resulting in very strong west-southwest winds across the wind corridors west of the Laramie Range. The highest gust thus far has been 86 mph at the Cooper Cove WYDOT site east of Arlington.
This will push a cold front towards the forecast area later today. Fog may be dense at some locations especially west of highway 75 in the higher elevations. Locations in far northern KS wil have the cooler highs today given the late clearing.
A second weather disturbance will cross the northern portion of the region on Tuesday, followed by high pressure aloft settling across the Great Basin midweek.
High pressure will prevail through the day. Temperatures this morning were in the mid 50s north to the lower 60s across the I-10 corridor to the upper 60s right along the coast. High pressure at the surface and aloft will begin to shift eastward today as upper level troughing develops across the western United States.
reaching the low to mid 80s. (Previous Discussion) ENE winds 10-15KT early today will freshen a bit to about 13-18KT this evening into tonight as reinforcing high pressure north of Florida tightens the local pressure gradient.
This afternoon expect showers over the higher terrain of the central mountains in Idaho bringing continued mountain obscuration and isolated IFR conditions. An upper trough will provide the area with showers this morning, mainly over the central Idaho mountains, and will taper off during the afternoon as a weak upper ridge moves in behind the exiting trough. The next upper trough will bring a chance of showers to SE Oregon and SW Idaho tonight through Tuesday morning. The showers will end in most areas by Tuesday afternoon as the trough moves to our east and an upper ridge slides into Oregon. Breezy southwest winds will continue mainly in the higher elevations this morning, otherwise winds will be light.
With that said, the best chance for thunderstorms appears to remain north of the Golden Gate Bridge. With the ridge building in aloft through late week, expect clearing conditions along with temperatures rebounding back near seasonal averages. Medium range models show our next chance of precipitation during the upcoming weekend as a deeper mid/upper level trough approaches the the Pacific Northwest.
High pressure will have a hold onto our weather pattern for one more day. Forecast soundings are showing winds in the lower levels in the atmosphere to be higher than previous nights which would support low clouds versus fog development. Low temperatures tonight will be warmer than this morning given the low cloud development and slight increase in wind speeds. The ridge of high pressure will shift to the east by tomorrow afternoon and at the same time a weak disturbance will rotate on the western periphery of the ridge tonight and into Tuesday.
As winds shift to the west behind the low, speeds should diminish across the east and increase along the Missouri River valley. The few light echoes on radar is associated with the warm front.
941 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 High pressure across the western Great Lakes will shift east tonight and be overhead for Monday.
943 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 A weak cold front with limited moisture will move into the Midlands this afternoon and dissipate.
/issued 332 AM CDT Mon Oct 31 2016/ (Today and Tonight) The upper ridge will begin working east today and tonight.
1131 AM CDT Mon Oct 31 2016 High pressure centered over the eastern Great Lakes region will continue drifting east today. Temperatures will be tricky again today as wind in the low levels turns to the south and southwest. Short range guidance is showing that this will advect the low clouds over southwest Missouri back over our area during the morning. MOS Lows in the low to mid 60s look reasonable.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 57 84 58 / 0 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 56 82 56 / 0 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 83 55 82 57 / 0 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 52 79 52 / 0 0 10 10.
A stagnant pattern continues with a deep layer ridge dominating the region. Strong mid and upper level subsidence under this ridge will maintain the dry conditions with temps 10 to 15 degrees above normal levels.
Current forecast has 86 with the upper ridge axis overhead early Tuesday and sliding eastward during the day.
Winds should surge again tonight across most, if not all, waters thanks to strengthening high pressure to the north and a nocturnal surge.
The few light echoes on radar is associated with the warm front.
A cold front is expected to track from west to east across the region late this afternoon into this evening. The above normal temperatures will continue today with highs ranging from the mid 50s across north central Wisconsin to the lower to mid 60s over northeast Iowa.