Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As a deep upper low currently over southwest Minnesota tracks slowly eastward over the next 24 hours, clouds will spread back into central Illinois and some light precipitation will be possible across the north. Models are in good agreement with the track of the low and its expected QPF across the area. As the low slowly slides by to the north, light snow/flurries will continue into Wednesday as well. Once the low departs the region, upper heights will rise significantly by the end of the week.
AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WILL SUPPORT BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
937 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND WILL BRING RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL STALL AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO OR BARELY BELOW FREEZING. CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS WILL PROVIDE OPTIMAL RADIATIVE COOLING ENVIRONMENT AND LOWS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM ARE MOST REASONABLE. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER FOR HIGHS AND LOWS EACH SUBSEQUENT DAY.
ONE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ON THE EAST SIDE WEDNESDAY MORNING. AGAIN, WE DON'T EXPECT MUCH PRECIPITATION, BUT IT DOESN'T TAKE MUCH FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET TO CAUSE TROUBLE.
There is a chance of fog/freezing fog this morning across the area. MAF would be the most likely terminal to experience fog but the high clouds over the area are somewhat hindering fog development. /issued 236 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015/ Westerly mid level flow today in advance of a broad mid level trof axis reflects a loose MSLP gradient and some low level thermal ridging. As said trof axis swings thru a loosely identifiable Pacific front will advance Wed AM.
511 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THIS MORNING THEN GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN MIGRATING NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MARCHES ACROSS TN AND THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS THROUGH CSRA. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE APPROACHING TONIGHT.
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS POSITIONED IN SOUTHWEST MN NEAR MARSHALL. TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND THAT SHOULD REMAIN CONSISTENT. SO NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING ISSUES TODAY. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL MN. MOISTURE RETURN INTO OUR AREA IS MINIMAL WITH THINGS BEING SCOURED OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE WEST. WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVERHEAD AND MOVING DIRECTLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. BUT WENT MORE PESSIMISTIC BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. BUT WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING NOT EXPECTING ANY ICING PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME.
A dry cold front will push through the area early Wednesday, with slightly cooler temperatures Wednesday, followed by a warming trend for the rest of the work week and into the weekend. A weak cold front passes on Wednesday however downslope flow and plenty of sun will largely offset much of the post frontal cooling.
CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY TONIGHT. WHILE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHER RAIN. 587-588 DM 500 MB HTS CONTINUE ALOFT WITH A MID LVL RIDGE ACROSS SRN FL. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE E/SE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SE STATES. ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S AS LOW LVL FLOW VEERS TO THE ESE/SE THIS AFTERNOON.
930 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THIS MORNING THEN GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY PUSHING NORTHWARD AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MARCHES ACROSS TN AND THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. WE WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE FOR DECEMBER 1ST WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS THROUGH CSRA. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE APPROACHING TONIGHT.
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW'S EASTWARD MOVEMENT WILL HELP TO FINALLY BREAK OUR CLOUDY AND DAMP WEATHER PATTERN LATE TONIGHT UP NORTH AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA.
426 AM MST TUE DEC 1 2015 THE HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS MANY SITES ACROSS THE WARNING AREA HAVE BEEN REPORTING WINDS SUSTAINED 40-50 MPH WITH GUSTS 55-65 MPH OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE NORTH. SNOW SHOULD END BY LATE MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
542 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A CUTOFF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SE SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH SFC TEMPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST AT OR ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. 25 INCH AND RELATIVELY LOW SLR VALUES IN THE 8/1-10/1 RANGE SNOWFALL AMONTS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS WEST OF MQT-IMT. AS THE DAY ROLLS ON THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT E.
913 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY AND TONIGHT. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEEKEND. AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY AT THIS HOUR. WITH A WEAK SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE HANGING IT UP IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
LOW RAIN CHANCES WL CONTINUE TNT DUE TO POOLING/LIFTING OF MARGINAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SURGING HIGH PRESSURE AREA. ALL THE LOW CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE AND PUSH TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY LEAVING ONLY CIRRUS. TEMPS SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER THAN TDA.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST.
/ISSUED 352 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015/ AREAS OF FREEZING FOG THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO LINGER WELL INTO THE MORNING. WILL KEEP FREEZING FOG ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 10 AM. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DEPART FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST.
A weak cold front passes on Wednesday however downslope flow and plenty of sun will largely offset much of the post frontal cooling.
CURRENTLY THIS MORNING WE HAVE A COLD FRONT KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR STEP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TENNESSEE INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. WE SHOULD SEE A TAD COOLER TEMPERATURES WORK INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES. WITH THE LOW RAIN AMOUNTS OF RECENT DAYS. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM LOOKS BETTER AND WILL GO WITH A RAIN FREE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WHICH WILL HELP COOLER TEMPERATURES WORK BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK POST FRONT. MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA.
MAJOR LEAGUE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING ONLY VERY SLOWLY EAST TODAY WITH SIGNIFICANT DEEP MOIST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED DUE TO SHORT WAVE LIFTING AND CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
705 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A CUTOFF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SE SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH SFC TEMPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST AT OR ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. 25 INCH AND RELATIVELY LOW SLR VALUES IN THE 8/1-10/1 RANGE SNOWFALL AMONTS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS WEST OF MQT-IMT. AS THE DAY ROLLS ON THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT E.
401 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015 CURRENTLY THIS MORNING WE HAVE COLD FRONT KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR STEP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TENNESSEE INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. WE SHOULD SEE A TAD COOLER TEMPERATURES WORK INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES. WITH THE LOW RAIN AMOUNTS OF RECENT DAYS. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM LOOKS BETTER AND WILL GO WITH A RAIN FREE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WHICH WILL HELP COOLER TEMPERATURES WORK BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK POST FRONT. MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA.
A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE LIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. PLENTY OF INSOLATION WITHIN A EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S. GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST WINDS WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. THE PASSAGE OF A POWERFUL COLD FRONT CAUSED TEMPERATURES IN KEY WEST TO PLUNGE DOWN TO A LOW OF 45F. THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 44F ON THE 2ND REMAINS TIED FOR THE LOWEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN KEY WEST IN THE MONTH OF DECEMBER.
646 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THIS MORNING THEN GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN MIGRATING NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MARCHES ACROSS TN AND THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS THROUGH CSRA. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE APPROACHING TONIGHT.
THE LOWEST CIGS. CIGS WL RISE EVEN MORE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS EVEN DRIER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTH TX AIDED BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHWARD. LOW RAIN CHANCES WL CONTINUE TNT DUE TO POOLING/LIFTING OF MARGINAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SURGING HIGH PRESSURE AREA. ALL THE LOW CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE AND PUSH TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY LEAVING ONLY CIRRUS. TEMPS SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER THAN TDA.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW CENTERED OVER FAR SOUTHWEST MN. FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE TO THE WEST OF THE LOW IS PRODUCING BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES ACROSS THE WESTERN SD PLAINS.
326 AM PST TUE DEC 1 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VALLEY INVERSIONS AND REDUCED AIR QUALITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
500MB CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA THIS PERIOD. AS IT MOVES EAST IT WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A TRAILING S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHICH WILL GIVE IT THE PUSH IT NEEDS TO MAKE IT THROUGH. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY TODAY WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS THICKNESS VALUES SLOWLY INCREASE. MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE ARRIVAL AND PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY WITH AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE CHANCE FOR INSOLATION THROUGH THE HIGH CIRRUS. THE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE POINTS FURTHER EAST WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER THUS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
556 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015 MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH OUT OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
544 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015 The large upper low currently centered over northwest Iowa will be slow to move east, still influencing our weather through Wednesday. Across northern Missouri, an approaching vorticity spoke associated with the upper low will skirt the area this afternoon and evening, returning cloud cover and perhaps enough lift/moisture for some flurries - but no measurable snowfall is expected. With the clouds and weak cold air advection, temperatures will be a few degrees cooler Wednesday afternoon, but no precipitation is expected.
The closed upper low responsible for the recent spell of wet weather will continue to slowly shift eastward. The upper low will continue its slow track to the east into the Great Lakes region on Wednesday which will maintain a northwesterly flow aloft. The lower 50H heights and associated mid cold pool associated with the upper low will result in chilly temperatures Wednesday. Highs Wednesday will only reach the lower and middle 40s. A more progressive pattern will evolve from late week into the weekend in the wake of the exiting upper low.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S. TEMPS TRICKY WITH EARLY ONSET CAA ACRS FAR WRN/NWRN CAA TO MORE MID AFTERNOON THERMAL RIDGE PIVOT OVER SERN CWA. BY LATE TONIGHT EFFECTS OF LAGGARD UPPER LOW WITH SECONDARY WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/DCVA BEGINS TO APPROACH NWRN CWA. MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO PASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION. A BIT OF A TRICKY PTYPE FORECAST GIVEN WEAK THERMAL TROUGH PUSHING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY BUT ALSO BEING AT LEAST PARTIALLY OFFSET/SLOWED BY FILTERED DIURNAL HEATING. DID EXPAND POPS IN THE 00- 06Z TIMEFRAME WEDNESDAY EVENING GIVEN RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND SLOWER EXIT OF UPPER LOW.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SNOW PIVOTING AROUND THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINATE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
1049 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 A WARM FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTH AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE MASON- DIXON BY 00Z WED. WITH A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST EXTENDING ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY. ONGOING RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AM AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. TROFFING WL GRDLY BE REPLACED BY A RDG. CONDITIONS MAY SLIGHTLY IMPROVE THIS AFTN AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANNAPOLIS TO REACH MINOR FLOOD LVLS WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT. WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE TOMORROW MORNING BEING THE LOWER OF THE TWO.
513 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015 WITH LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL US TODAY. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER LOW CENTERED IN NEB/SOUTHERN SD. AN 850MB COLD AIR POCKET WAS NOTED FROM THE MO RIVER VALLEY WEST TOWARD ID/WA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF THE CWA. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE UPPER LOW. CWA WILL BE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE LOW. WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DAVID CITY TO BELLEVUE TO RED OAK AND WITH THE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS CLOSE TO THE NEB/SD BORDER. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD AND OPEN.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.
FORECAST SKEW-TS SHOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TODAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
755 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015 LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER SIOUX FALLS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UP THE EAST COAST. RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS HAVE EXPANDED THE WRAP AROUND FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER SIOUX FALLS THIS MORNING WITH THE LOW PROGGED TO DEEPEN BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z. SNOW CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING OVER MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA BUT A HOLE NOW DEVELOPING FROM PINE RIDGE TO VALENTINE. WEDNESDAY A TROUGH WILL COME ONSHORE ACROSS THE PAC NW WHILE THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING TREND FOR MID TO LATE WEEK ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
Precipitation is expected to be light with this system, however there is the possibility of warmer air overrunning the cold pools creating a light freezing rain/drizzle. The amount of warm air and resultant liquid precipitation remains uncertain, though right now, northwestern Montana and central Idaho has the highest likelihood of seeing this outcome. The most probable scenario will be widespread light snow, with isolated pockets of freezing rain.
957 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL LAG SIGNIFICANTLY AND CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND ENTRENCH ITSELF OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE FORECAST AREA. OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL ALSO STILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES AT GLACIAL SPEED. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST SOUNDINGS START TO SATURATE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS.
ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN IMPULSE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND AN UPPER LOW LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-WEST.
FORCING FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW INCREASES. AND CONVERGENCE ATTENDANT TO A SUBTLE SFC PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN MODELS ARE PAINTING QPF OF A HUNDREDTH OR TWO. SFC TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE MID MORNING.
AND WEDNESDAY NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR FSD THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT BANDS OF PCPN INTO THE AREA FOR THE MORNING HOURS. DRY SLOT REGION OF THE UPPER LOW PROGGED TO REACH SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN TOWARD DAYBREAK AND CONTINUE TO WORK NORTHWARD TO DIMINISH PCPN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WITH THE COLD UPPER LOW SYSTEM DRIFTING OVER TONIGHT. THEN DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE COLD UPPER LOW DEPARTS.
1035 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ACTIVELY CROSSING CENTRAL KENTUCKY. AN AREA OF STEADIER RAINFALL HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR LMK. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE AREA. THIS RAINFALL HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND SHOWS NO SIGN OF LETTING UP AS THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS RIGHT ON THE DOORSTEP. THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
550 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015 LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER SIOUX FALLS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UP THE EAST COAST. RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS HAVE EXPANDED THE WRAP AROUND FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER SIOUX FALLS THIS MORNING WITH THE LOW PROGGED TO DEEPEN BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z. SNOW CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING OVER MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA BUT A HOLE NOW DEVELOPING FROM PINE RIDGE TO VALENTINE. WEDNESDAY A TROUGH WILL COME ONSHORE ACROSS THE PAC NW WHILE THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING TREND FOR MID TO LATE WEEK ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
628 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND WILL BRING RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL STALL AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
530DM UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTHWEST IOWA THIS MORNING FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BY THE END OF THE DAY THEN NEAR THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH THAT APPROACHES BUT REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST. LOWS IN THE LOW TEENS TO AROUND 20 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO.
230 AM PST TUE DEC 1 2015 CONTINUED WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.
Cold front has now moved east of the region. However, an upper level trof extending south from a closed low moving east through the Midwest and Great Lakes will pass through the region on Wednesday. Not expecting any precipitation with this upper trof, but it could serve to bring additional clouds, which would keep temps from warming out of the 40s at most locations. Thereafter, a large dome of chilly high pressure will build in from the west.
WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WITH STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALTERNATE WITH PERIODS OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. WARMER DAYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS DPVA INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE WEST. BUT AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS MOVING INTO THE AREA IT SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE.
UPPER LOW IS PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW AND IS IMPACTING CARTER AND FALLON COUNTIES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO ENCROACH INTO THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY. EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL BE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF WINDY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AS STRONGER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
533 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015 LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER SIOUX FALLS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UP THE EAST COAST. RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS HAVE EXPANDED THE WRAP AROUND FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER SIOUX FALLS THIS MORNING WITH THE LOW PROGGED TO DEEPEN BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z. SNOW CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING OVER MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA BUT A HOLE NOW DEVELOPING FROM PINE RIDGE TO VALENTINE. WEDNESDAY A TROUGH WILL COME ONSHORE ACROSS THE PAC NW WHILE THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING TREND FOR MID TO LATE WEEK ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
LAFAYETTE IS CURRENTLY HAVING THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY.
538 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 COLD FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEEKEND. AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY AT THIS HOUR. WITH A WEAK SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE HANGING IT UP IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
525 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A CUTOFF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SE SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH SFC TEMPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST AT OR ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. 25 INCH AND RELATIVELY LOW SLR VALUES IN THE 8/1-10/1 RANGE SNOWFALL AMONTS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS WEST OF MQT-IMT. AS THE DAY ROLLS ON THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT E.