Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A synoptic trof will move across the Northern Plains and will have a sfc reflection in the form of a cold front. A significantly drier airmass will advect in across the region with high pressure in control. Models have been trending cooler with Saturday lows and do think upper 40s could be realized across the northwestern zones with lower 50s elsewhere. High pressure will remain in control and winds will weaken through the day. Both 00Z ECMWF and ARW have come in cooler and have decreased highs are a result with the dry airmass prevailing across SW Kansas.
835 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 Surface and upper ridging will maintain dry conditions in the forecast area through Saturday.
1245 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 High pressure will continue offshore through Saturday night.
A cold front will arrive near 12Z shifting winds from the northeast and increasing to 20-30kts, with MVFR CIGs also moving in behind the front. /issued 330 AM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016/ An upper trough over the northern conus will deepen today over the Northern Plains. This will send a cold front southward towards Texas. The upper trough will move eastward towards the Great Lakes region on Saturday. The previously mentioned cold front will push into the area Saturday morning with strong and gusty winds along and behind the front. Temperatures on Saturday will be much cooler with highs in the lower to mid 70s across much of the area.
A weather disturbance exiting the northern Rockies will push a dry cold front south across Utah through this evening. Dry cold front has moved across almost the entire CWA as of 0900 this morning. Castle Country and through the I-15 corridor of Black Ridge.
This will remain the case this morning til a cold front and wind shift moves through. With a clear sky and fairly light winds expected overnight lows will be chilly in the low to upper 40s.
along a SW to NE oriented H850 theta-e ridge. The convection may be further enhanced by the large upper low spinning just off the TX coast. with its attendent trough axis translating NW into N LA/E TX through the afternoon. which will be farthest removed from the forcing associated with the theta-e axis and approaching inverted trough aloft.
625 AM PDT FRI SEP 9 2016 Weak high pressure will bring a slight warming trend to the area through Saturday.
740 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 A dying cold front will stall out over Pennsylvania today, then lift north of the region as a warm front early Saturday.
1135 AM EDT Fri Sep 9 2016 Warm and humid conditions will continue until a strong cold front cross the area Saturday night. An upper trough and associated surface cold front is expected to approach the region Saturday, with passage Saturday night.
Broad upper level trough now dropping into the northern plains. Closer to home, the warm front bisects Iowa west to east and spans northern Illinois from Moline to Chicago. Areas of fog have developed in moist airmass south of the warm front. Fog: Patches of dense fog have developed south of the warm front. The main forcing is associated with the cold front, which is progged to cross Iowa this afternoon/tonight, reaching the Mississippi River around midnight. There is no doubt that a progressive Canadian origin high pressure will move over the region. This high will pass to the south of Iowa, providing at least one cool calm and clear night to the CWA Saturday night.
A strong cold front is forecast to arrive Saturday night with breezy, dry northerly winds, as well as unsettled and cooler weather.
7C at 500 MB) overall thunderstorm development and coverage should remain on the low side for central and northern areas with best chances for any storms again being over southwest Florida where deeper moisture and better instability will reside.
A surface cold front continues to rapidly move south across the forecast area this morning. This cold front is currently north of Rawlins and extends southeast across the foothills of the Rocky Mountains. This activity should diminish and move east of the forecast area late this afternoon as the trough axis rapidly moves east of the area. expect near or below freezing temperatures with some frost across the normally sheltered valleys due to clear skies and dry air over the area. Most locations across the lower elevations of western Carbon County have already reported below freezing temperatures with the last few strong cold fronts.
Broad upper level ridge of high pressure covers the southern U. Meanwhile higher dewpoints, in the lower to mid 70s, stretch from along the Mississippi River west into Arkansas. Highs will generally be in the lower 90s. A potent upper trof will push into the Upper Mississippi Valley by Saturday driving a cold front south.
Deep inverted troughing continues to exist between the western Bahamas and Florida Straits with associated convection. The surface reflection associated with this troughing is forecast to still push slowly westward through late day with its inherited cluster of showers and storms. High pressure ridging, east-west oriented, will continue to hang out across north FL through the period. High temps will reach the lower 90s across the interior and the onshore flow near the coast will keep temperatures here in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Inverted troughing continues this morning between the western Bahamas and the Florida Straits. East- west oriented high pressure ridging remains situated across north Florida.
Storm chances should diminish temporarily over the Flint Hills/Southeast Kansas by mid-late morning, as forcing for ascent weakens along with the low-level jet. An upper trough will amplify as it moves southeastward across the Northern/Central Plains Today into Tonight. This will drive a cold front into central Kansas this afternoon, and south-central and southeast Kansas this evening.
838 AM CDT Fri Sep 9 2016 Leading edge of the cold front based upon the 925-850mb thermal packing and surface observations places it from near Beach to Garrison and east into Harvey. No changes required with this update other than to blend to observed trends through 11 UTC as the surface cold front will soon be passing through the US Highway 2 corridor. Cooler temperatures with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms highlight the short term forecast for today. As of 08 UTC, a cold front near the international border will continue to propagate southeast across western and central North Dakota this morning. Temperatures in the lower to mid 60s are expected area today. Scattered rain showers focused behind the front this morning will increase in coverage with daytime heating and cool temperatures aloft with the upper level low.
1014 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 A dying cold front will stall out over Pennsylvania today, then lift north of the region as a warm front early Saturday.
This morning a surface boundary had moved into Northeast Oklahoma ahead of the main cold front located from Colorado through the Central Plains and into the Upper Midwest. A limited severe potential with damaging winds and hail will be possible late afternoon and this evening as the main cold front approaches the region. With the cold front not expected to move into the CWA til later this evening and overnight. These conditions will aid in temps warming into the low/mid 90s and heat index values in the mid 90s to near 105 degrees. The higher of these values look to be south of morning precip locations.
Tonight it will be cool with lows in the 40s but the mountain valleys will likely see lows around freezing. A dry cold front will cross the region on Saturday. It will be warm ahead of the front with cooler breezy west winds behind the frontal passage.
1013 AM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016 Cold front located near a Warroad-Crookston-Valley City line with winds more north-northwest behind it and west or west-southwest ahead of it.
A Pacific trough moving through the western states will bring a drying trend lasting through Saturday morning.
433 AM PDT FRI SEP 9 2016 Weak high pressure will bring a slight warming trend to the area through Saturday.
Upper air map analysis this morning shows a westward translating upper low over the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. To its north, a narrow mid-level ridge axis was positioned from TX into the southeast US. Although highs lift into the mid 90's interior, dewpoints mixing out => lowering into the lower to mid 60's thru the day results in lower humidity values.
Small hail is possible given the lower freezing levels, but otherwise the convection today will be benign. Tonight will be dry otherwise as ridge builds from the west and becomes established over the region.
High pressure aloft will prevail over the region through tonight. A low pressure system will bring a chance of precipitation to the northern part of the area on Saturday.
TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO YESTERDAY'S VALUE ALTHOUGH NAPA IS RUNNING 7 COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AND WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. TODAY WILL BE GENERALLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK TO THE COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL LEAD TO MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS.
WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT.
WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE SUMMITS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS QUICKLY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH PARTIAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AND THIS WILL KEEP PLACES LIKE RUTLAND AND SPRINGFIELD IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. QUIET AND MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SEWD FROM NRN ONTARIO. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS OVER THE REGION WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS EMBEDDED VORT MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS A AN UPPER LEVEL JET NOSES INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. SHOWERS WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT NORTH OF MENDOCINO COUNTY AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. MAINTAINED MID-HIGH POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN MID/UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO REMAIN CAMPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AREA. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND IS WHERE A TEMPO GROUP FOR +TSRA WAS INSERTED DURING THE EVENING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING.
744 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 AVIATION CLOUDY AND CHILLY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND BRING CLEARING SKIES WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE.
1143 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH MID WEEK AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS OUR REGION. A CORE OF EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR FOR LATE APRIL WILL BE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MID WEEK WHERE AN UPPER LOW WILL BE. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION WILL BE PUSHING SOME OF THIS COLD AIR ACROSS OUR AREA.
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IN WESTERN OREGON WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN OREGON FOR DRY WEATHER TODAY. WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE COAST WILL COME INLAND TODAY BUT WILL ALSO WEAKEN. ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH TOWARD SRN CALIF WEDNESDAY AND FORM A CLOSED LOW IN SRN NEVADA. THE FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO OUR MOUNTAIN AREAS.
725 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 FRONT WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NEW JERSEY TO MISSOURI THIS MORNING.
1015 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO AREA THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL BREAK DOWN LATE THIS WEEK. AS THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA BEFORE WASHING OUT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE FA GRADUALLY WASHES AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE REGION. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL SAG TOWARD NORTHERN AREAS LATE.
1013 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK.
951 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 UPDATE CLOUDY AND CHILLY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND BRING CLEARING SKIES WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE.
1150 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1056 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/ CURRENT TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S ARE FOLLOWING CLOSE TO THE SAME TREND AS YESTERDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS THE CLOUD SHIELD JUST TO OUR WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY. WITH THE HIGH MOVING EAST ALONG WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER ARKLAMISS INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THAT THE HIGH MENTIONED ABOVE AND THE SMALL CAP WILL PREVENT ANY DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NE AL.
1239 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH MID WEEK AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS OUR REGION. A CORE OF EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR FOR LATE APRIL WILL BE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MID WEEK WHERE AN UPPER LOW WILL BE. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION WILL BE PUSHING SOME OF THIS COLD AIR ACROSS OUR AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE BUT REMAINING MOSTLY DRY. LOW PRESSURE WILL SPLIT AND DRIVE SOUTHEAST INTO OREGON TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
705 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK.
1033 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING THEN BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN ITS WAKE AND HOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. T-STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CHARLOTTESVILLE THEN WANE BY MIDNIGHT AS COOLER MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN BEHIND FRONT. MUCH COOLER WED AS COOL WEDGE ESTABLISHES.
1007 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THE SE COAST TODAY.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT LARAMIE COUNTY AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GOSHEN AND PLATTE COUNTY MAY SEE SOME CONSIDERABLE SNOWFALL RATES THIS MORNING. LAPS SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INTENSIFYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO AT THIS HOUR. THIS LOW SEEMS TO HAVE STALLED EARLY THIS MORNING PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CARBON COUNTY. UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH BY THIS AFTERNOON. ESPECIALLY THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WHAT HAPPENS TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT REDEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE PW VALUES AND STORM MOTION PARALLEL TO THE FRONT COULD BE CONDUCIVE TO TRAINING DOWNPOURS. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY.
IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA.
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA INTO THE MORNING.
PATTERN OVERVIEW: STRONG CLOSED SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE SW CONUS THIS MORNING AND WILL BRING A BOUT OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING NOSES UP THROUGH THE MIDWEST FEEDING INTO WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND REGION ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE MIXY OR FLAT OUT -SN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AS COOLER AIR BLEEDS IN FROM THE NORTH. DRY AND COOLER AIR TO BUILD DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND PUSH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH, AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
1055 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
/ISSUED 454 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/ THE STATE FALLING DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE LOWER GREAT BASIN. DRY LINE EMANATING FROM THE TROUGH INTO THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE BIG BEND REGION. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS PLACING THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE UNDER A WARM AIR ADVECTION FLOW PATTERN. MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN LOW HAS PRODUCED AN ENTRENCHED SOUTHWEST WIND. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE LIES WITH A WEAKENING LINE THAT WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE STORMS WILL MUTE THE HIGH RAINFALL THREAT.
THIS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL CONSENSUS. IF THE WARM FRONT CAN LIFT INTO SRN NEB. THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROJECTED TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER ON WEDNESDAY. THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW FAVORS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. AS THE LOW EJECTS EAST IN THE EVENING HOURS. THE MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH COLD AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW FOR A COMPLETE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS NW NEB. AND A MIX AS FAR EAST AS THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. THE RECENT TREND OF THE MODELS HAS BEEN COOLER.
1241 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
CENTRAL ALABAMA FINDS ITSELF BETWEEN THE HIGH IN THE ATLANTIC AND THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW/MID 80S.
725 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
845 AM PDT TUE APR 26 2016 DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER TODAY WITH WEAKER WINDS.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATER TODAY INTO AND ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. OUR AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED UNTIL MID AFTERNOON WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX ROTATES UNDERNEATH THE TROUGH TO PROVIDE UPWARD FORCING.
941 AM MDT TUE APR 26 2016 THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING SNOW. WRAPAROUND FLOW FROM THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO FAVOR THOSE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED ALONG THE UT AND CO BORDER SOUTHEAST OF VERNAL THIS MORNING AND WAS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST. COOLER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE AREA REINFORCING THE CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH PLATEAUS. SO ONLY MINOR ROAD IMPACTS AREA EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS PASSES. WEDNESDAY THE LOW CENTER WILL REACH THE HIGH PLAINS STATES AND MOISTURE WILL BE ERODING TO THE EAST AND NORTH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA SO AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING.
WEAK 500 MB RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AND YIELDS TO A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST. EVENTUALLY BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE HIGHWAY 281/INTERSTATE 69C CORRIDOR.
710 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
CURRENT TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S ARE FOLLOWING CLOSE TO THE SAME TREND AS YESTERDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS THE CLOUD SHIELD JUST TO OUR WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY. WITH THE HIGH MOVING EAST ALONG WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER ARKLAMISS INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THAT THE HIGH MENTIONED ABOVE AND THE SMALL CAP WILL PREVENT ANY DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NE AL.
/ISSUED 318 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/ WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A SFC TROF. LOOKING FOR FINAL CLEARING BY TUE WITH COOLER CONDITIONS AS WELL. DML THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE DEEP SOUTH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MODELS MAY BE SOMEWHAT SLOW WITH THE LOW CLOUDS MIXING OUT. THE CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. AND MAY NEED FURTHER ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD WITH THE LOW CLOUDS LINGERING.
846 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH MID WEEK AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS OUR REGION. A CORE OF EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR FOR LATE APRIL WILL BE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MID WEEK WHERE AN UPPER LOW WILL BE. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION WILL BE PUSHING SOME OF THIS COLD AIR ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE HIGH SHEAR VALUES WOULD ALLOW FOR STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY.
WITH THE 12Z NAM12 FORECAST BUFR SOUNDING SLIGHTLY WARMER.
Closed mid-level upper low across the southwestern states continues to dig in the near term.
RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK E/SE FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL FL. MORNING SOUNDING FROM THE CAPE CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE LOWER LEVELS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR ABOVE AN INVERSION AT 850MB. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW MARINE SHOWERS ALREADY THIS MORNING WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO PUSH ONSHORE. HIGHS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO A WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW. BUT STILL RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST TO MID 80S OVER THE INTERIOR.
1001 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS COUPLED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WILL GENERATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CUMULUS AND CAPE VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KG. HRRR AND NAM MODELS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT FIVE DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S.
704 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ATTENDANT UPPER TROUGH. THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY WITH LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AND LOWER CLOUDS. IT WILL BE EVEN COLDER IN THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND BLACK RIVER REGIONS WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES.