Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
245 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020 Afternoon RAP 500 mb analysis and water vapor imagery indicates an open wave pivoting into the Sierra Nevada Mountain range, along with a substantially weakened mid-level ridge oriented across the Rocky and Cascade Mountain region. LP supercells will be the primary storm mode with broad, mid-level mesocyclones supporting an attendant risk for hail production of 1-2" in diameter. Storms that do develop will have a residence time of several hours as they move along the southern Panhandle due to the increase in the low- level jet coincident with the arrival of the mid-level jet streak and associated wave. Chances for storms will begin to diminish after dark and upon passage of the cold front.
A decent cold front will then move southward through the area overnight associated with deepening of upper trof from the Upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes region. The post-frontal air mass doesn't look quite as cool as yesterday and guidance in general is warmer.
These showers should dissipate this afternoon as the lower atmosphere warms and drys. Afternoon forecast soundings across NE OK and NW AR show an inverted V in the lower atmosphere indicative of the potential for a few isolated severe wind gusts. This will likely promote linear storm structures this afternoon focused along the incoming cold front.
153 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020 High pressure will briefly nudge into the area today. A cold front will approach the area tonight and move through Tuesday morning.
It will bring a cold front into the OH Valley late tonight.
While it won't be really any cooler tomorrow, lower RH values should make the day feel much more pleasant.
This low, and associated cold front, will also bring chances for rain overnight and possibly some sprinkles as early as late this afternoon. Behind a cold front, Tuesday is set to be dry but cooler than today.
Anglin High pressure across the Northern Rockies and Montana will maintain dry and relatively mild conditions across the region through the early part of this week.
148 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020 Dry air will filter into the area in the wake of a cold front this afternoon. High pressure and fair weather expected Tuesday with a dry cold front crossing the region Tuesday evening.
458 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020 Aloft, a weak short wave impulse is current moving through Missouri and will enter into the lower Ohio Valley by this evening. A more substantial trough will rotate through the Great Lakes tonight and work its way into the Ohio Valley Tuesday. At the surface a cold front extends south-southwestward from low pressure over Ontario. This cold front will drop quickly southeast overnight and into the Ohio Valley by Tuesday morning.
Only anticipating 2 to 4 inches of snow at the highest elevations of the San Juans.
A cold front will move into Arkansas tonight, with isolated showers/storms possible along it, affecting the northern sites potentially.
The cold front will be quite strong with this system, with cold advection occurring through the overnight and a cold day in the 40s Tuesday.
A little unsettled weather will start the week, but then warmer and drier weather returns to the Great Basin from mid-week through the weekend.
142 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020 A strong cold front will usher in unsettled weather late tonight and Tuesday with showers and a few thunderstorms, some of which may contain gusty winds.
RMS Prominent ridging/northwest flow aloft became the dominant weather pattern last night, and will persist through at least Tuesday. This will help to bring about downslope winds and good mixing, helping to bring temperatures to the low 70s by Tuesday, and RH's down into the low 20s today and Tuesday.
Out west, an upper trough will begin moving east, and is forecast to arrive near the Four Corners by 00Z Wed. As mentioned above, westerlies will mix the dryline east during the day, but this will retreat after dark, when the upper trough swings thru. Winds increase Wed/Thu as the trough continues passing thru the region, and then subsidence sets in behind. Although temps will be a couple of degrees cooler behind a Pac front, fire wx conditions will be exacerbated nevertheless. Unfortunately, a cold front arrives Fri night, taking temps below normal Sat.
Low stratus associated with a weak thermal trough will continue to produce ceilings around 1500 feet at KMCB through 21z.
A lobe of Canadian air will plunge southward across Minnesota overnight, with areas north and east of Sioux falls potentially seeing overnight low temperatures below freezing.
144 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020 Scattered thunderstorm are expected to develop later this afternoon across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as a weak surface trof moves into the region.
Otherwise, a gradual warming and drying trend is forecast to begin on Tuesday and persist through late week as high pressure builds over the eastern Pacific. This will result in more widespead 60s and 70s across the interior on Tuesday with inland locations warming into the lower 80s late in the week. SFO Bridge Approach.
306 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue into early this evening as a short wave trough and associated surface cold front continue to push southeast across the region.
1147 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020 Drier air will filter into the area in the wake of a cold front today. High pressure and fair weather expected Tuesday with a dry cold front crossing the region Tuesday evening.
East of the dry-line, but south of the front, humidity was higher while temperatures had risen into the low 80s. With the increasing moisture across the region tonight, expect warmer overnight lows in the upper 50s to around 60.
Highs will generally be below normals in the low-mid 70s. A nice day is on tap with highs in the low to mid 70s and light northerly winds. Overnight lows will fall into the low to mid 50s for most of the area.
922 AM MDT Mon Apr 20 2020 No updates planned this morning as an upper ridge axis remains just off the Pacific Northwest coast and British Columbia the next few days. A weak upper low off thew coast of Southern California is expected to move south of the region with little impact to Idaho.
A northern branch upper level trough will cross central Kansas early this morning. A surface boundary will cross southwest Kansas early today as the upper level trough moves across central Kansas which will ensure that the surface front located across the Panhandle of Texas will remain nearly stationary. The high temperatures this afternoon will be similar to the highs yesterday and generally range from 70 to 75 degrees despite a frontal passage and north winds. Late this afternoon and tonight warm air advection and moisture will be on the increase north of the Panhandle of Texas surface boundary as an upper level trough approaches from the west southwest. On Tuesday as an upper level trough crosses northern New Mexico and approaches southwest Kansas the 850mb to 700mb moisture and lift will spread across all of southwest Kansas during the day.
Showers today and tomorrow will give way to warmer and quieter weather midweek, followed by another round of showers later in the week. Much warmer weather is in store for the weekend. Area radars are mostly quiet with the exception of a few light returns on the Cedar City radar (which are likely only reaching the ground over the higher terrain).
Scattered showers are expected to develop ahead of a cold front overnight. The cold front should begin arriving in southern IN just before sunrise tomorrow morning, and then push into central Kentucky after sunrise.
332 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020 Partly cloudy skies will continue this evening but should clear tonight as a cold front moves across central Illinois. A cold front will move southeast through the area this evening. Temps are expected to be cooler than today but definitely warmer than what was experienced last week. All models are in decent agreement that the low pressure area associated with the next weather system will move across the middle Miss valley south of the CWA; however, they differ as to how far south of the CWA.
/issued 329 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020/ A low amplitude upper level ridge axis will move from the southern Rockies today into the southern plains tonight. So western counties are expected to warm a little above normal into the lower 80s, while temperatures should be near normal mid or upper 70s, in the eastern South Plains and Rolling Plains.
Afternoon highs have warmed into the lower 80s but with dewpoints in the upper 50's, its turned into a rather pleasant spring day. Most of the high res guidance develops some variation of visibility restriction after 06Z, but this could be tempered by the cirrus layer.
156 PM MDT Mon Apr 20 2020 Deep upper trough centered across central Ontario continues to pivot eastward. Tight pressure gradient across the Upper Plains in response to baroclinic zone to our NE as deep upper low pushes eastward and western riding builds in its place. Robust warm air advection, centered around 850 mb, will support much warmer temperatures tomorrow with many areas well into the 60s and 70s.
High pressure across the Arklatex and subsidence aloft will translate to dry weather through the rest of the day. Cloud cover is expected to scatter out through the afternoon with highs in the lower 60s to near 70. A weak cold front will work its way through the area in the morning hours of Tuesday. AD Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 73 43 71 54 / 10 0 0 0 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 69 40 70 52 / 20 10 0 0 60 Oak Ridge, TN 48 70 40 70 51 / 30 0 0 0 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 66 36 67 47 / 30 30 0 0 50.
312 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020 Pacific high pressure located across the nrn Rockies this afternoon will build into wrn and ncntl Nebraska tonight. A second area of high pressure across Canada this afternoon will build through the Midwest tonight. The resulting consolidated area of high pressure across the Midwest Tuesday will produce southwest winds and warming temperatures across wrn and ncntl Nebraska. April shower and thunderstorm chances this week revolve around an upper low dropping through the nrn Plains and Midwest.
Upper low moving into central California. Main impact will be increasing winds and cooler temps.
223 PM MDT Mon Apr 20 2020 Afternoon Update: High resolution, near term models continue to be drier and warmer than larger scale models and blend solutions, and thus continue to be heavily relied upon for keeping up with the heightened fire weather concerns (T/RH and wind) through midweek. The base blends were allowed to dominate the latter portions of the forecast, which still show breakdown of the ridge and a return of active weather late in the week and then again late in the weekend. Cliff PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: High pressure across the region will maintain warm and dry conditions over the next couple of days.
Northwest flow prevails aloft today, as upper ridging builds over the west coast. High pressure moves towards the region, with mostly dry weather currently anticipated through tonight.
406 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020 A cold front will move across the area late tonight and early Tuesday morning. In the wake of the cold front, it will be breezy until high pressure builds in Tuesday night.
The low level reflection of this wave produces low level moisture convergence this afternoon and evening as it moves across Missouri into southwest Illinois. This deepening of the overall longwave pattern will drag a cold front through the mid Mississippi Valley late tonight and another cool high pressure system will sink into the Midwest on Tuesday.
Conditions will be drying from northwest to southeast through Tonight as high pressure builds from the northwest. A dry cold front will move southeast into SE GA Tuesday afternoon.
308 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020 A potent low pressure system east of the Delmarva is connected to a trailing frontal system now pushing south through south-central Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Not much change in the pattern from the previous discussion this morning as split upper level flow continues today and tomorrow as overall troughing pattern digs into the region. Lows tonight hovering around the freeze mark for many will cooler temps across the southern mountains. Warmer temps Tuesday as the Panhandle reaches into the 70 degree range and upper 60s across the WY high plains.
339 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020 Strong northwest winds will fall off and relative humidity will rise into the early evening hours along with the high based mixed layer clouds dissipating. Tuesday will be a warmer day across the cwa as ll southwest winds push much warmer 925mb temperatures from southwest to northeast through the day. With mostly sunny skies and southwest winds, expect highs by late afternoon to range from the lower 60s northeast to the upper 70s in the southwest cwa. Would not be surprised if these temperatures were 3 to 5 degrees warmer with the drier surface conditions across the region.
Gusty showers and strong winds will accompany a cold front through the region Tuesday, followed by a push of unseasonably cold air through midweek. After the passage of a narrow ridge of high pressure at the sfc and mainly clear skies early tonight, clouds will increase after midnight with 40-45 kt WSW LLJ bringing showers into NW PA 06-12Z Tue. Deep upper level trough and potent cold front are progged to swing through Pa Tuesday, accompanied by a good chance of morning showers and possible thunderstorms over the eastern third to half of the state. The passage of upper trough, combined with moisture flux from the lakes (thanks to a lake/850 mb air delta T of 17C), will support late morning and PM snow showers across the Allegheny Plateau.
Upper level ridging will continue to provide sunny skies with warming temperatures through Wed afternoon. At that time, a low approaching from the northwest, as many have this winter/spring, Until then, afternoon temperatures will be more solidly in the 60s for the heavily populated areas, with also gradually warmer overnight lows. Such warm air advecting in ahead of the front also gives the potential threat of some freezing precipitation for the central Idaho mountains. The better- resolution soundings though from that area have much less chance of this occurring, so have undercut the freezing precipitation threat to no more than slight chance.
346 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020 A weak area of high pressure will move through the area overnight into tomorrow morning. By tomorrow afternoon, this high will be to our southeast with an increasing pressure gradient across eastern KS. This deeper mixing should help temperatures climb into the lower 70s across eastern KS and western MO.
A fast moving cold front will pass through the area this afternoon and evening. These showers should dissipate this afternoon as the lower atmosphere warms and drys. Afternoon forecast soundings across NE OK and NW AR show an inverted V in the lower atmosphere indicative of the potential for a few isolated severe wind gusts. This will likely promote linear storm structures this afternoon focused along the incoming cold front.
Otherwise, a gradual warming and drying trend is forecast to begin on Tuesday and persist through late week as high pressure builds over the eastern Pacific. This will result in more widespead 60s and 70s across the interior on Tuesday with inland locations warming into the lower 80s late in the week. A 500 mb ridge returns tonight through Tuesday night with a gradual return of the marine layer inversion. SFO Bridge Approach.
901 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020 Cold front still on track to move through the region overnight.
/issued 245 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020/ Afternoon RAP 500 mb analysis and water vapor imagery indicates an open wave pivoting into the Sierra Nevada Mountain range, along with a substantially weakened mid-level ridge oriented across the Rocky and Cascade Mountain region. LP supercells will be the primary storm mode with broad, mid-level mesocyclones supporting an attendant risk for hail production of 1-2" in diameter. Storms that do develop will have a residence time of several hours as they move along the southern Panhandle due to the increase in the low- level jet coincident with the arrival of the mid-level jet streak and associated wave. Chances for storms will begin to diminish after dark and upon passage of the cold front.
An area of high pressure aloft will weaken tonight.
838 PM MDT Mon Apr 20 2020 EVENING UPDATE: A backdoor cold front has slid into the far northeastern zones and is expected to stall overnight along a line from about Opheim to Poplar to Sidney. GAH AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: High resolution, near term models continue to be drier and warmer than larger scale models and blend solutions, and thus continue to be heavily relied upon for keeping up with the heightened fire weather concerns (T/RH and wind) through midweek. The base blends were allowed to dominate the latter portions of the forecast, which still show breakdown of the ridge and a return of active weather late in the week and then again late in the weekend. Cliff PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: High pressure across the region will maintain warm and dry conditions over the next couple of days.
1002 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020 Cold front on Tuesday with rain and storm potential.
643 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020 A weak area of high pressure will move through the area overnight into tomorrow morning. By tomorrow afternoon, this high will be to our southeast with an increasing pressure gradient across eastern KS. This deeper mixing should help temperatures climb into the lower 70s across eastern KS and western MO.
643 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue into early this evening as a short wave trough and associated surface cold front continue to push southeast across the region.
High temperatures approaching the upper 90s to around 100 degrees will be possible in the lower deserts this coming weekend. Cirrus clouds are streaming in from the southwest out ahead of a trough currently situated over the west coast.
High pressure will weaken and move eastward tonight with onshore flow increasing.
732 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020 High pressure and fair weather expected Tuesday with a dry cold front crossing the region Tuesday evening.
Showers will push off by tonight with some increasing mid-level moisture ahead of the next trough that will help to keep lows overnight in the upper 30s to lower 40s. There is weak QG ascent across the southern portions of the state with decent instability across the higher elevations and areas mainly along and south of I-70. Wet bulb temperatures will be low enough for some snow showers above 9,000 ft in the mountains with accumulations ranging from a trace up to three inches over the higher elevations of Summit county. Temperatures will be similar to today with highs reaching into the lower 60s with 40s and 50s in the high country.
1019 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020 Currently - A mid latitude low lifting out over the northwestern Atlantic is dragging a trough southwestward across Florida. Almost all convective activity associated with this trough is along a broad broken band across Central Florida. A trough over Florida will lift out northeastward, while a ridge remains to our south and southeast.
18Z surface data has the cold front running from eastern Lake Superior west across central Minnesota and into North Dakota. A strong cold front will sweep through the area this evening. Precipitation should enter the highway 20 corridor west of Dubuque between 430 and 6 PM and then move quickly southeast and exit the area just before midnight.
Strong northwest winds will fall off and relative humidity will rise into the early evening hours along with the high based mixed layer clouds dissipating. Tuesday will be a warmer day across the cwa as ll southwest winds push much warmer 925mb temperatures from southwest to northeast through the day. With mostly sunny skies and southwest winds, expect highs by late afternoon to range from the lower 60s northeast to the upper 70s in the southwest cwa. Would not be surprised if these temperatures were 3 to 5 degrees warmer with the drier surface conditions across the region.
726 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020 A cold front will move across the area late tonight and early Tuesday morning. In the wake of the cold front, it will be breezy until high pressure builds in Tuesday night.
834 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020 Forecast remains on track with cooler conditions expected tonight as weak high pressure builds into the region with a drier West to Northwest flow. Tuesday afternoon with Mostly Sunny skies expected locally and warm West flow ahead of the front will push Max Temps to slightly above normal levels with Highs in the lower 80s across SE GA and middle 80s across NE FL, the West flow will keep the Atlc Coast sea breeze from moving inland past the I-95 corridor across NE FL. Conditions will be drying from northwest to southeast through Tonight as high pressure builds from the northwest. A dry cold front will move southeast into SE GA Tuesday afternoon.
/Issued 144 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020/ Scattered thunderstorm are expected to develop later this afternoon across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as a weak surface trof moves into the region.
This will allow temperatures to cool to slightly cooler than normal at most locations by morning and the development of patchy fog.
Mid-level temperatures warm slightly Tuesday and expect high temperatures to be a few degrees warmer, around 5-10F above normal. A weak, dry surface cold front works south into the far north late in the day.
Showers today and tomorrow will give way to warmer and quieter weather midweek, followed by another round of showers later in the week. Much warmer weather is in store for the weekend. Cumulus clouds have blossomed over most of the higher terrain around Utah and southwest Wyoming this afternoon, with a few light radar returns from around Utah County southward. Model soundings show minimal instability in a relatively shallow layer around 12kft AGL and below with most of the instability below the freezing layer, so would expect some graupel or small hail. The weak trough axis associated with this feature cross our area in the morning hours.
940 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020 The threat for strong/severe storms has ended but isolated to scattered showers and even a few storms will persist overnight over Indian River, Okeechobee, St Lucie and especially Martin counties ahead of a cold front. Winds will become light W/NW behind the front and allow temperatures to cool into the low and mid 60s.
527 PM MDT Mon Apr 20 2020 Deep upper trough centered across central Ontario continues to pivot eastward. Tight pressure gradient across the Upper Plains in response to baroclinic zone to our NE as deep upper low pushes eastward and western riding builds in its place. Robust warm air advection, centered around 850 mb, will support much warmer temperatures tomorrow with many areas well into the 60s and 70s.
238 PM PDT Mon Apr 20 2020 Weak low pressure will bring chances for showers through Tuesday, mainly in the afternoons and evenings in the Sierra. A light snow accumulation is possible at the higher elevations of Mono and Alpine counties by this evening. High pressure will slowly strengthen mid to late week for drying conditions and temperatures rising to well above normal. Temperatures will also warm through the week as high pressure begins to edge its way in across the region.
613 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020 Pacific high pressure located across the nrn Rockies this afternoon will build into wrn and ncntl Nebraska tonight. A second area of high pressure across Canada this afternoon will build through the Midwest tonight. The resulting consolidated area of high pressure across the Midwest Tuesday will produce southwest winds and warming temperatures across wrn and ncntl Nebraska. April shower and thunderstorm chances this week revolve around an upper low dropping through the nrn Plains and Midwest.
A weak cold front is situated to our northwest early this evening and will swing across Middle Tennessee later tonight. A quick moving clipper system will move through the terminals overnight, but 00z OHX sounding shows ample dry air in the low levels.