Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
256 AM CST Wed Jan 13 2021 Widespread freezing fog has formed early this morning across the Tennessee Valley, with some dense fog noted the Tennessee River lakes, as well as other sheltered valleys. With surface temperatures dropping into the low to mid 20s, its entirely plausible we could have some localized icing issues on bridges/overpasses as well as a frost on elevated surfaces such as trees, roofs, etc. Have issued a Freezing Fog Advisory until 15z to highlight this. We also could see some patchy freezing fog once again, but think the drier air mass should limit the scope of its development.
Thus, expect patchy freezing fog development to expand over all of northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee after midnight. Based on current observations, couldn't rule out some of this freezing fog being more widespread and locally dense near Lewis Smith lake and fog prone locations of NE Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. Temperatures are expected to drop into the lower to mid 20s by daybreak Wednesday, so bundle up if outside tonight or Wednesday morning. A rather impressive upper level low will move out of the Lower Mississippi River Valley into the Southeastern u. The upper level low exits to the east Wednesday night with higher heights aloft and high pressure at the surface.
/issued 741 PM CST Tue Jan 12 2021/ Split-flow synoptic pattern continues across the CONUS with a slow-moving, closed low crossing the Lone Star State this evening. With that in mind, the approaching trough will be moisture starved with nil PoPs in the short-term. /issued 311 PM CST Tue Jan 12 2021/ Perfectly clear skies across the Mid-South with light winds and temps in the lower to mid 40s. Clear skies, light winds and some residual surface moisture will lead to some patchy freezing fog later tonight into early Wednesday mainly across NE MS and southeast parts of West TN near the TN River. This could lead to a few slick bridges or overpasses as temps drop into the 20s overnight. The Mid-South will see a warming trend over the next couple of days as a deep trough digs into the western states.
1047 PM CST Tue Jan 12 2021 Mostly clear and calm conditions are expected through the TAF period as high pressure dominates the forecast. Thick cloud coverage and persistent light northerly flow has maintained much cooler temperatures than expected. High pressure will linger over the area and slowly move east through Wednesday with clear skies and light and variable winds. Temperatures should be about 10 to 15 degrees warmer with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Recent guidance has been biased several degrees to warm given the underestimation of the low cloud cover, especially northwest of the FL Big Bend. Despite the previously mentioned partial clearing, the low cloud cover should still keep temps on the cooler side of the guidance, especially to the northwest of the FL Big Bend, where highs were lowered several degrees. Overall, expect highs in the lower to middle 50s across the entire area. Expect temps to bottom out in the lower to middle 30s northwest of the FL Big Bend.
1045 PM CST Tue Jan 12 2021 Variable high and mid level cloudiness across the region today as GOES water vapor imagery and RAP analysis was showing a weak mid- level trough pushing southeast across MN into WI. Will have to watch for fog development tonight, possibly locally dense, mainly east of the Mississippi River given lighter winds under a weak ridge of high pressure and very moist lower boundary from partial snowmelt today. After some areas of morning fog, may have to contend with some low cloud/stratus mainly east of the Mississippi River in warm air advection ahead of low pressure moving in across the Northern Plains. Typical highs for this date are in the lower/mid 20s.
939 PM PST Tue Jan 12 2021 A Santa Ana weather pattern will maintain fair, dry, and warmer weather across Southern California this week with periods of weak to moderate offshore flow. Building high pressure aloft will amplify the warming for the latter half of the week, when temperatures will be well above average. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO Update: A tranquil night prevails across SoCal after a warm January day with highs well into the 70s west of the mountains (except the immediate coast) as well as across the lower deserts.
1100 PM CST Tue Jan 12 2021 Primary concern comes at the end of the period as an upper trough moves in from the northern Plains and a cold front works its way across Minnesota. Weak warm advection doesn't look like it will be able to generate much if any precipitation Wednesday into Wednesday night, so most of the area will need to wait until the cold front arrives to see a period of precipitation. Guidance still differs quite a bit on some of the details with this upcoming system, although the cold frontal timing is fairly consistent. This means there could be some window of mixed precipitation (rain or freezing rain depending on near surface temperatures), but that window should be short with things changing over to snow as the entire column cools behind the front.
High pressure will build back into the area through the end of the work week.
620 AM EST Wed Jan 13 2021 High pressure dominates through Thursday.
In any case, do not expect winds above 10 knots until the end of the period, when a cold front begins to push south, with winds veering to northwesterly as a result. 08z WV satellite shows an upper trough over E TX, a disturbance off the Pacific Northwest coast with a strong jet streak ahead of this feature, and northwesterly flow aloft over the Panhandles. Today, expect modest height rises as the E TX trough continues to depart to the east.
424 AM MST Wed Jan 13 2021 Vigorous Pacific upper trough and cold front were poised to move ashore into the Northwest, accompanied by a 130+kt 250mb jet and copious moisture aloft. The regional surface analysis showed a ridge axis from ID to the Four Corners, and a trough axis from the Central Dakotas to the Southern High Plains.
Light precipitation may spread as far south as Donner Pass over the northern Sierra this morning, but is only expected across the northern half of the Sacramento Valley at the lower elevations. Precipitation will quickly taper off later this morning and during the afternoon as high pressure begins to build. Strong ridging returns for the remainder of the week.
256 AM MST Wed Jan 13 2021 A warm January day will become very windy this afternoon as a cold front moves through the area. Winds will be strong enough at times to keep the High Wind Warning in effect. High pressure moves into the area Thursday Night diminishing the winds.
/issued 400 AM CST Wed Jan 13 2021/ Latest WV imagery and UA analysis shows mid/upper low over E TX approaching the lower MS Valley. At the sfc, a ridge of high pres extends acrs the NW Gulf coast with winds mostly calm acrs the region. While the blanket of midlevel clouds is keeping temperatures warmer than this time yesterday morning, they remain rather chilly with readings in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Overnight lows tonight will be warmer than what we have seen over the past few days with temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 30s. A cold front is expected to move through the area on Thursday.
535 AM CST Wed Jan 13 2021 (Today and tonight) Warmer temperatures, sunny skies, and quiet weather is expected today under northwest flow aloft. Overnight lows Wednesday night will also be warmer, mainly in the low to mid 30s, with west to southwest winds between 5 and 15 mph.
620 AM EST Wed Jan 13 2021 Dry weather will continue Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure maintains its position along the U.
/Issued 310 AM EST Wed Jan 13 2021/ Primary concern is the coverage of freezing fog this morning. Temps in line with forecast and already well below freezing. Areas near lakes and ponds will be most prone to freezing fog, but can't rule out valleys and other areas prone to dense fog. Fog and freezing temps will improve quickly after 9 AM. Another chance for patchy light freezing fog tonight but likely less confidence and coverage than this morning.
450 AM CST Wed Jan 13 2021 Our primary weather concerns begin late tonight as a strong cold front swings through bringing strong winds to the region.
Meanwhile the low level WAA regime with west-southwest lower tropospheric flow will continue and it's already resulting in current temperatures that are as much as 10-12 degrees warmer than this time yesterday.
With the thermal ridge crossing the area today and southwesterly downslope flow, much warmer than average temperatures are expected this afternoon. An upper level low tracking eastward across the southern parts of the Canadian prairie provinces with stall over southwestern Manitoba tonight. This will swing an upper level trough and associated surface cold front across the forecast area from late this afternoon through this evening, followed by strong and gusty northwest winds. The upper low will slip southward across the eastern Dakotas/Minnesota on Thursday keeping the surface pressure gradient tight.
400 AM CST Wed Jan 13 2021 Latest WV imagery and UA analysis shows mid/upper low over E TX approaching the lower MS Valley. At the sfc, a ridge of high pres extends acrs the NW Gulf coast with winds mostly calm acrs the region. While the blanket of midlevel clouds is keeping temperatures warmer than this time yesterday morning, they remain rather chilly with readings in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
404 AM EST Wed Jan 13 2021 Dry weather will continue Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure maintains its position along the U.
Much cooler temperatures and periods of light snow will arrive Thursday night and persist through the weekend. Meanwhile at the surface, a broad warm sector will span across the Mississippi Valley ahead of an incoming cold front. With increasing cloud cover and southerly flow, overnight temperatures will remain mild across the region with lows only cooling into the lower 30s. Temperatures will remain well above normal on Thursday in advance of the cold front. Little to no snow accumulation is anticipated Thursday night across central Illinois as the system dry slot wedges in behind the cold front.
401 AM MST Wed Jan 13 2021 Vigorous Pacific upper trough and cold front were poised to move ashore into the Northwest, accompanied by a 130+kt 250mb jet and copious moisture aloft. The regional surface analysis showed a ridge axis from ID to the Four Corners, and a trough axis from the Central Dakotas to the Southern High Plains.
Widespread freezing fog has formed early this morning across the Tennessee Valley, with some dense fog noted the Tennessee River lakes, as well as other sheltered valleys. With surface temperatures dropping into the low to mid 20s, its entirely plausible we could have some localized icing issues on bridges/overpasses as well as a frost on elevated surfaces such as trees, roofs, etc. Have issued a Freezing Fog Advisory until 15z to highlight this. We also could see some patchy freezing fog once again, but think the drier air mass should limit the scope of its development. High pressure at the surface will setup just east of the area on Thursday and it should be the warmest day of the week as southerly flow and a mostly sunny sky should warm temperatures into the mid to upper 50s.
With 925 mb temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday, highs around 40 again look plausible even with some more clouds.
446 AM MST Wed Jan 13 2021 12Z TAF CYCLE A small patch of 1/4SM freezing fog within the Pecos Valley will pester KROW thru sunrise.
In most areas, the strongest winds are yet to come and expected to occur along and following a cold front, which as of 3 AM has just crossed over the Cascades in Washington. These excessive wind gusts will continue for a few more hours until the cold front passes around the noon hour PST. While gusty winds are on going throughout the higher terrain of Northern Rockies, the strongest winds and potential for those gusts to be transported down through the valleys is still on track for this morning. The cold front should be near the Idaho Panhandle by 16Z, into Western Montana sometime between 17Z/18Z and then through Butte between 22Z and 00Z.
This event will be primarily driven by a potent jet aloft, with very little increase in moisture expected in the lower levels. Therefore, only the higher elevations of the Elkhead, Park, and Gore ranges are expected to see snow with this system as it moves through tonight through Thursday morning. This will result in strong winds in the higher terrain, especially along the Continental Divide. With the passage of the cold front, afternoon high temperatures will be much lower on Thursday, running near to a few degrees below normal.
443 AM EST Wed Jan 13 2021 High pressure at the surface and upper energy moving in aloft will allow for some increasing rain chances through the late morning through the evening today.
639 AM EST Wed Jan 13 2021 Mostly cloudy but mild with highs around 40 today and Thursday ahead of a cold front which will bring a shot of light snow to the area Thursday evening.
Models bring a cold front across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.
Highs today are expected to reach the low to mid 60s under mostly sunny skies and light winds.
538 AM CST Wed Jan 13 2021 Southwesterly surface winds should prevent freezing fog formation this morning. Cold front Thursday morning. With the elongated nature of the trough, we'll see some impacts across west Texas as well. However, the prefrontal trough is not expected to move into our CWFA until late evening followed by the honest front before sunrise on Thursday.
The one exception will be a wind shift at KAUS around 15Z- 18Z timeframe on Thursday as a cold front works its way into the region.
A weak high pressure system will develop in the northern gulf with northerly winds across the region. As we continue to move up the atmosphere to around the 500mb level there is a short wave associated with a mid level trough that will be moving through Northern Florida and the Southeast CONUS. This will provide enough energy and combined with the low-level moisture flux/increase showers will be possible across the region later this evening but particularly Wednesday night and early half of the day on Thursday. A cyclonic flow regime should encompass the eastern CONUS as a closed upper circulation migrates through the lower Great Lakes.
A frigid overnight has commenced with many in the low to mid 20s and even a few in the teens. More widespread freezing fog appears to have stayed to our south and east so far this morning. Could see a few places on the Plateau get some freezing fog before sunrise, but not expecting this to be widespread. Today should be much warmer than yesterday with highs closing in on 50. Even warmer temps are expected tomorrow with many reaching the low to mid 50s. A stout upper-level trough will dig in the eastern half of the U.
VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours with high pressure in control. Highs today are expected to reach the low to mid 60s under mostly sunny skies and light winds.
Went on the higher side of the overall guidance for afternoon high temperatures (mostly mid 50s).
The northeast will remain slightly cooler in the upper 20s. In general, the colder pattern will hold into this weekend with the mean trough axis over the eastern CONUS. This first will dive across the Front Range Thu and help carve out a large and very anomalous upper low over the MS River valley. Heights will rise for Sat/Sun but we will see another wave by Sun night to reinforce the trough for early week. Into mid week, the trough axis retrogrades and this will allow for return flow which will aid it increasing rain chances by the Tue-Wed timeframe.
(Today and tonight) Warmer temperatures, sunny skies, and quiet weather is expected today under northwest flow aloft. Overnight lows Wednesday night will also be warmer, mainly in the low to mid 30s, with west to southwest winds between 5 and 15 mph.
Today Through Thursday Night At the surface, high pressure was centered just south of Arkansas, with an upper level low over eastern Texas. Clouds associated with the aforementioned system will move eastward today, as the low shifts across north Louisiana. Winds will increase on Thursday, as a cold front moves into Arkansas from the plains.
As showers ease this morning, high pressure builds offshore yielding drier conditions for the next few days. Models show ridging over the area as a high builds into the evening as a front moves east of the area. An approaching cold front from the northwest is due to arrive Thursday and weaken as it moves east without much precipitation or impact.
Changes come tonight as a cold front will slide across the area during the evening hours.
08z WV satellite shows an upper trough over E TX, a disturbance off the Pacific Northwest coast with a strong jet streak ahead of this feature, and northwesterly flow aloft over the Panhandles. Today, expect modest height rises as the E TX trough continues to depart to the east.
932 AM EST Wed Jan 13 2021 Dry weather will continue Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure maintains its position along the U.
315 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021 An area of low pressure will brush by the region today, bringing very light rain showers to northeast California and far northwest Nevada. High pressure will build overhead through the weekend with mainly light winds, weak to moderate inversions, and mild temperatures.
343 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021 Dry weather and foggy mornings this week as high pressure prevails.
848 AM EST Wed Jan 13 2021 High pressure dominates through Thursday.
611 AM CST Wed Jan 13 2021 Our primary weather concerns begin late tonight as a strong cold front swings through bringing strong winds to the region.
317 AM CST Wed Jan 13 2021 Today will be much warmer compared to the past few days with highs reaching the 60s in many locations. Dry northwest flow aloft will persist over the forecast area as a sfc trof develops across the Southern Plains. By Thursday, a deepening upper low will develop over the Upper Midwest and an assocd cold front will be dragged into our region.
651 AM EST Wed Jan 13 2021 A ridge of high pressure will be the dominant weather feature in the short term for eastern Kentucky. A few locations in the Cumberland Valley may see some freezing fog this morning, but that should dissipate rather quickly once the sun has been up for a bit. Todays highs will top out in the upper 40s, with most locations reaching the lower 50s on Wednesday. Conditions should favor another ridge valley temperature split late tonight, so that was reflected in the grids once again. Lows on Wednesday are expected to fall into the lower 20s in the valleys, but only to around 30 on the surrounding ridges. Winds will be generally out of the south or southwest the next couple of days, which will be what leads to our warmer temperatures.
With the elongated nature of the trough, we'll see some impacts across west Texas as well. However, the prefrontal trough is not expected to move into our CWFA until late evening followed by the honest front before sunrise on Thursday.
518 AM CST Wed Jan 13 2021 Precipitation chances tonight, with a strong cold front and persistent strong winds later tonight through Thursday.
This will cause a cold front to surge southward across Kansas late tonight. RAP model shows deeper low-level mixing just behind surface cold front which could create a brief spike of stronger northwest winds during the overnight hours. There is potential that wind gusts could flirt with high wind warning over central Kansas, therefore we will issue a high wind watch/wind advisory for the higher confidence areas.
/issued 443 AM EST Wed Jan 13 2021/ High pressure at the surface and upper energy moving in aloft will allow for some increasing rain chances through the late morning through the evening today.
High temperatures today should be warmer (upper 50s to lower 60s). but likely even warmer tomorrow (mid 60s to lower 70s) via the develop- ing SW winds at the lower/mid levels. The next cold front is still progged to push off the coast late tom- orrow afternoon/evening. Cooler/drier air filtering into the CWA in the wake of the front should support lows from the mid to upper 30s for inland locations and mid 40s at the immediate coast tomorrow night.
/issued 317 AM CST Wed Jan 13 2021/ Today will be much warmer compared to the past few days with highs reaching the 60s in many locations. Dry northwest flow aloft will persist over the forecast area as a sfc trof develops across the Southern Plains. By Thursday, a deepening upper low will develop over the Upper Midwest and an assocd cold front will be dragged into our region.
324 AM CST Wed Jan 13 2021 Precipitation chances tonight, with a strong cold front and persistent strong winds later tonight through Thursday.
Low temps from the lower to mid 50s this morning, will increase to the 60s this afternoon.
This is tied with a cut off upper level low that will track from the Northern Plains into northern Illinois.
A cold front will move into central IL during Thursday afternoon, bringing a good chance of rain showers. Much cooler temperatures and periods of light snow will arrive Thursday night and persist at times through the weekend. These clouds were ahead of a mid level short wave trof that will move into western IL by late afternoon. Meanwhile at the surface, a broad warm sector will span across the Mississippi Valley ahead of an incoming cold front. With increasing cloud cover and southerly flow, overnight temperatures will remain mild across the region with lows only cooling into the lower 30s. Temperatures will remain well above normal on Thursday in advance of the cold front. Little to no snow accumulation is anticipated Thursday night across central Illinois as the system dry slot wedges in behind the cold front.
A short wave trough will drop southeast across the northern Rockies tonight and into the Plains on Thursday. An associated cold front will move south across the area tomorrow morning, with gusty north winds developing through the afternoon hours.
This high is under a trough aloft driving eastward through the Gulf of Mexico and the southeast. Forecast - The upper level trough will continue to migrate eastwards across Florida tonight into tomorrow morning. As the trough passes eastwards, the associated lift, cloud cover, and shower activity will drag eastwards across our area. The forcing aloft may be able to generate a few thunderstorms, but only over the warmer gulf stream waters.
810 AM MST Wed Jan 13 2021 Tweaked morning forecast to add more Freezing Rain wording. This also hit on our Facebook and Twitter pages as ground in many places at or below freezing, especially east of Highway 24 (Opheim to Glasgow). TFJ A warm January day will become very windy this afternoon as a cold front moves through the area. Winds will be strong enough at times to keep the High Wind Warning in effect. High pressure moves into the area Thursday Night diminishing the winds.
The remainder of today will see VFR conditions persist with passinghigh cirrus and winds occasionally gusting to near 20kts at a few sites as a low level thermal ridge moves in. A cold front will enter the region late tonight into early tomorrow morning. The upper low that brought wintry precipitation to parts of TX and LA is currently located over NE LA and W MS and is continuing to move eastward. This low is expected to become an open wave trough later today. Meanwhile, a low level thermal ridge on the heels of this upper low is continuing to expand across the southern plains this morning with temperatures around 6C to 9C across E OK and NW AR at the 850mb level. The main upper ridge continues across the desert southwest with a notable strong upper jet located across the pacific northwest.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 29 54 37 50 30 / 0 0 20 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 28 53 35 47 30 / 0 0 20 30 20 Oak Ridge, TN 27 51 35 47 28 / 0 0 20 30 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 25 51 30 45 27 / 0 0 10 50 30.
This wave will aid in driving a cold front through the region tomorrow with strong post frontal winds expected.