Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
/Issued 1138 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020/ While ridge and some upper level drying should keep convective coverage more limited, there is still strong diurnal heating and fairly high conditional instability to where isolated storms could trigger anywhere in the CWA this afternoon into evening. Temps and dewpoints still look to be on the high end resulting in some heat indices in the low 100s for mainly portions of central GA. This low lingers in New England and acts as steering source for another low pressure system out of the northern Great Lakes which sinks south reinforced by strong ridging out west.
With the low-level jet nearly opposite of the upper-level flow, a backbuilding or slow moving MCS is the most likely scenario before energy is used up and/or a strong enough cold pool develops to propagate away from the area as the low-level jet weakens. Areas well to our west are in the low 100s today and this heat may advect eastward. Given the uncertainty with cloud cover and the highest temperatures to stay west of the area, have kept temperatures in the lower 90s.
This will leave much of western Oklahoma and western north Texas with triple digit temperatures, RH values in the lower to mid teens, and breezy winds.
245 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 An upper level trough will be over the eastern US through much of week. Late in the week, the closed upper low will move east and should be replaced by a weak upper trough. Temperatures are on track this afternoon to max out in the lower to mid 90s. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s with some cloud cover and mixing expected. The upper level low will linger over the Northeast through mid week. During the short term, a series of upper level disturbances will round the base of the trough and move over the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas.
Given the low freezing heights, some very small hail is possible in stronger cells. The closed low will continue to shift northeast across the state and into Montana by tomorrow.
347 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020 Low clouds along with cooler air coming off the morning convection to the east and southeast has not allowed northeast sd and west central mn to warm up much today. Otherwise, with the high low level moisture and surface dew points through the night, expect the low clouds to remain or fill back in across much of the cwa tonight and remain into Tuesday. Tuesday will likely be mostly cloudy with the low clouds having a hard time breaking up along with higher clouds from the upper level low pressure trough coming in from the west and cold front pushing into the western cwa in the afternoon. Tuesday's highs are expected to be in the mid 80s to the lower 90s.
245 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020 WV imagery shows a broad, upper trough over ID, and a ridge over the Gulf of Mexico, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under SW flow aloft. Diurnal mixing has brought some of the winds rounding the base of the trough to the sfc in the Guadalupes, for a few hours of high winds.
As a strong eastern trough builds west and south underneath the upper ridge late Tuesday an MCS may form on the western edge across our forecast area overnight.
327 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 A trough of low pressure will linger over or near the region through the holiday weekend. Deep west northwest flow will persist on Tuesday in between a cut- off low over the Northeast and ridging extending north from the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, troughing will linger over the area. Temperatures peaking in the mid 90s will combine with dew points in the low-mid 70s to yield heat indices in the 105-108F range, mainly across the coastal counties. Lows Tuesday night will be slightly above normal, in the low to middle 70s.
324 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 High pressure sits over Lake Huron, and there it will continue to sit during the near-term period. A skinny 500mb ridge axis over eastern upper/nw lower MI will retrograde very slightly over Lake MI late tonight and Tuesday. Min temps tonight will continue to edge a little warmer, mid 50s east to mid 60s west. Max temps Tuesday upper 80s to near 90f, a little cooler on the Lake Huron coast.
With the weak upper level ridge axis over us this morning, the precip over the Plateau was moving to the SE while the rest of the precip was moving NE. All precip should move to NE within the next few hours as the ridge axis moves to our east. As weak upper level ridging influences build across rest of mid state region, diurnal max heating influences should interact with available low level moisture supporting VCTS 29/19Z-30/01Z.
326 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 Slow-moving upper level low over New England will lift out by the weekend and be replaced by a broader Northeast U. trough. Max temps will be reached within the next few hours with some spots touching 90F in the lower Susquehanna Valley. Morning sunshine should self-destruct quickly into a mdt cu field early Tuesday as a spoke of cooler air aloft pinwheels around the persistent upper low over New England. A few more clouds and slightly cooler air aloft will drop maxT back 2 to 5 degrees with the greatest 24hr change over the far northeast zones. Med range guidance continues to indicate that upper troughing over northeastern North America will become more pronounced and extend southward into the Mid Atlantic region by the middle of the week.
Upper ridging centered over the Florida Panhandle and eastern Gulf of Mexico will slowly expand westward throughout the period. With that in mind, convection will likely re- initiate early this afternoon over the inland counties mainly around the highway 84 corridor. The biggest limiting factor will be the ridge overhead and dry air from the ridge was noted in the mid-levels. With the presence of the upper ridge slowly building west, isolated storms will likely develop along the land breeze over the nearshore waters and coastal areas before spreading inland and increasing in coverage throughout the afternoon as boundaries collide. Temperatures will remain hot as the upper ridge moves over the area with mostly low 90s and maybe some upper 80s over the barrier islands.
High pressure building in from the north will then bring slightly drier air to the area. Temperatures will get even warmer by late in the week.
Lows tonight are expected to be generally in the low to mid 70s, but with dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70. Tuesday's highs are expected to be warmer than today's (especially since today's highs have been mitigated by the lingering clouds). During the day Tuesday, the upper level trof to the west will begin to lift and become negatively tilted with the trof axis expected to broadly swing through our area Tues evening. As this happens the associated stationary front (currently over the NE panhandle) will become a cold front on the move.
High pressure under northwest flow aloft will maintain dry weather tonight. Blocking pattern will persist through a good portion of the period with a cut-off low lingering over New England. As our region remains on the periphery of the aforementioned upper low in northerly flow, an isolated shower cannot be completely ruled out each afternoon. The upper low is progged to eventually shift eastward, though the central CONUS ridge will persist through the weekend. Broad ridging wl support genl VFR with exception for incidents of peri-dawn fog.
SE MI will reside between an upper level ridge over the Midwest/western Great Lakes and an upper level low sitting over the Northeast. Good radiative cooling should result bring lows into the lower 60's for much of the region and possibly upper 50's in the Thumb helped by the Huron lake breeze.
1234 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 High pressure will build south out of Ontario and remain in place through much of the week.
1052 AM PDT Mon Jun 29 2020 A slow moving weather system will bring showers, thunderstorms, and cooler weather to start the week. The Low is still passing through Southern ID and bringing wrap around showers into the Lower ID Panhandle. The chance of precip will continue to diminish through the day as the Low drifts further East.
234 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020 While main upper air pattern has not changed much in recent days, still battling pesky short wave troughs or MCVs that are keeping convection quite active.
334 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 High pressure will build south out of Ontario and remain in place through much of the week.
233 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2020 Quiet so far over the CWA with an upper low quite evident on satellite spinning over Idaho. Cooler Tuesday with some breezy conditions especially over the plains. Warmer and still mainly dry Weds under a wsw flow aloft.
The 850 mb thermal ridge will strengthen further, up to 28-29 deg C, so it could be rather hot, with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s (perhaps near 104/105 in some western Concho Valley and Big Country locations where dewpoints will be lower).
206 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 Slow-moving upper level low over New England will lift out by the weekend and be replaced by a broader Northeast U. trough. Max temps will be reached within the next few hours with some spots touching 90F in the lower Susquehanna Valley. Morning sunshine should self-destruct quickly into a mdt cu field early Tuesday as a spoke of cooler air aloft pinwheels around the persistent upper low over New England. A few more clouds and slightly cooler air aloft will drop maxT back 2 to 5 degrees with the greatest 24hr change over the far northeast zones. Med range guidance continues to indicate that upper troughing over northeastern North America will become more pronounced and extend southward into the Mid Atlantic region by the middle of the week.
Some of the model show this energy peeling more to our west with upper ridging taking hold.
Highs will reach the mid 90s today with heat indices in the low 100s and lows tonight will fall into the mid 70s.
312 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020 Showers and thunderstorms were ongoing this afternoon across the TN Valley, as the axis of a mid level ridge weakens over the area. Temps will drop into the lower to mid 70s by daybreak on Tuesday and with dewpoints in the upper 60s, expect there to be some patchy fog during the predawn hours. The axis of the mid level ridge will continue to push eastward on Tuesday and weaken as a mid level low swings into the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a strong ridge will begin to build into the Plains and Mississippi Valley bringing northwest flow over the TN Valley.
The upper ridge axis will then gradually translate ewd/weaken during the day Tue, as a stronger ridge pattern becomes reinforced over the Plains states. An upper low now moving southward across the St Lawrence Seaway, should be situated over the coastal New England region at the start of this period, with a trough axis extending SW across this region to the Gulf Coast.
1117 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 An upper level trough will be over the eastern US through much of week. Late in the week, the closed upper low will move east and should be replaced by a weak upper trough. However, strong surface heating will result in temperatures rising into the lower to mid 90s again with dewpoints around 70 degrees. The upper level low will linger over the Northeast through mid week. During the short term, a series of upper level disturbances will round the base of the trough and move over the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas.
357 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020 A few iolated showers and thunderstorms have been able to develop within the very moist low level environment this afternoon despite the broken to overcast cloud cover and upper ridging extending from the coast across much of the gulf of Mexico. Guidance has been hinting at a very weak wave wrapping around the northern periphery of this ridge and, based on the overall motion, that appears to be the source of the convection. The next couple of days look generally dry as the upper ridge slides west across the north central gulf providing even stronger capping across the region.
Temperatures have risen to the low 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s today and this trend will be continuing throughout the week. There is a bit more coverage of convection in the later half due to the ridge above the southeast CONUS weakening and a trough building to our east around the Atlantic states.
313 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 A cold front will stall across North Carolina tonight as high pressure builds in from southeastern Canada. The front will attempt to return northward during the middle of the week as an upper low churns over New England. A backdoor cold front may drop into the region from the northeast late this week into the weekend. Thus, no updraft have been mature enough to produce a shower thus far, and believe it won't for the balance of the day as the cold front has passed well south of the area.
Offshore winds in the hills will result in warmer temperatures in most areas today.
The last remnants of our active weather pattern the last couple days was a cold front passage that has traversed much of southern Nevada and more or less washed out by this point. Beyond today, the focus of the forecast is the synoptic evolution of a Pacific Northwest trough phasing with a subtropical high by late week.
With these clouds, overnight lows will be very warm, only dropping to the low to mid 70s.
High pressure will support mostly clear skies and near seasonal lows tonight. Blocking pattern will persist through a good portion of the period with a cut-off low lingering over New England. As our region remains on the periphery of the aforementioned upper low in northerly flow, an isolated shower cannot be completely ruled out each afternoon. The upper low is progged to eventually shift eastward, though the central CONUS ridge will persist through the weekend. Building high pressure over the Great Lakes will maintain VFR conditions through tonight and into tomorrow with the exception of a few foggy spots again. Pre-dawn fog may cause restrictions again tomorrow morning; otherwise VFR conditions throughout the day under prevailing high pressure.
Weak high pressure will be over NC through tonight.
A broad omega block is in place with the upper level pattern featuring a low over the Rockies, a ridge over the Great Lakes, and a low over New England. Overhead, a northerly jet cuts across NYS between the upstream ridge and downstream trough. Diurnally-driven showers and storms are expected again Tuesday, moving almost due west this time, but again only affecting the Eastern Lake Ontario region as the upper low remains over New England.
308 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 Deep layer ridging will center over the Gulf of Mexico as a series of migratory perturbations track south through the Bahamas. Mid-level subtropical high pressure will continue to weaken and shift westward into the Gulf of Mexico, allowing for light northwesterly flow aloft to become established across South Florida. In the lower-levels, light/variable flow will prevail due to a western Atlantic ridge axis extending across the Florida peninsula.
Westerly winds aloft will remain in place as a large upper level trough slowly moves across the Intermountain West. Mid/Upper level ridge will migrate from the northwestern Gulf of Mexico to the southwestern US by the end of the week with the ridge briefly intensifying and expanding northward as it traverses over Texas.
1138 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 While ridge and some upper level drying should keep convective coverage more limited, there is still strong diurnal heating and fairly high conditional instability to where isolated storms could trigger anywhere in the CWA this afternoon into evening. Temps and dewpoints still look to be on the high end resulting in some heat indices in the low 100s for mainly portions of central GA. This low lingers in New England and acts as steering source for another low pressure system out of the northern Great Lakes which sinks south reinforced by strong ridging out west.
Building upper ridge will maintain dry conditions through the period. Blocking pattern will persist through a good portion of the period with a cut-off low lingering over New England. As our region remains on the periphery of the aforementioned upper low in northerly flow, an isolated shower cannot be completely ruled out each afternoon. The aforementioned upper low is progged to eventually get absorbed back into the northern stream by the end of the week but northerly flow looks to persist into the weekend with the region still under the influence the broad central CONUS ridge. Building high pressure over the Great Lakes will maintain VFR conditions through tonight and into tomorrow with the exception of a few foggy spots again. Pre-dawn fog may cause restrictions again tomorrow morning; otherwise VFR conditions throughout the day under prevailing high pressure.
Along with the gusty winds, expect much cooler temperatures today. Shower and thunderstorm chances will likely increase after mid-week, especially over the higher terrain. Otherwise, cooler than normal temps this afternoon will give many a break from the heat. The Red Flag Warning also continues until 8 PM MST this evening for the high winds, low relative humidity and very dry fuels. High pressure centered over Texas and New Mexico starts building into the area mid week and with it a warming trend for northern Arizona.
150 PM PDT Mon Jun 29 2020 A strong low pressure area is moving across the Great Basin today, keeping the weather unseasonably cool with gusty westerly winds over the mountains and deserts. Gradual warming will occur for the remainder of the week as the trough weakens, but onshore flow and a shallower marine layer will continue areas of night and morning low clouds and fog west of the mountains. It will be much warmer for the Holiday weekend. The sfc pressure gradients coast to deserts has weakened considerably from yesterday, but there were still wind gust reports of 40-50 MPH along the windiest ridges and passes. The unseasonably cold trough that is over the West today will keep gusty onshore flow over the mts/deserts through this evening.
Along with the gusty winds, temperatures are much cooler today. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase after mid-week, especially over the higher terrain. With a trough in place across the Mountain West, windy conditions are in full swing this afternoon. In addition, cooler than normal temps today will give many a break from the heat. A few favored locations like Bellemont, Parks, and Grand Canyon Village may see near freezing temps early Tuesday morning. As the trough lifts and weakens, winds will likewise weaken Tuesday and temps will rise gradually into the latter half of the week. High pressure is forecast to slowly build into the area during this period.
525 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 Slow-moving upper level low over New England will lift out by the weekend and be replaced by a broader Northeast U. trough. Max temps will be reached within the next few hours with some spots touching 90F in the lower Susquehanna Valley. Morning sunshine should self-destruct quickly into a mdt cu field early Tuesday as a spoke of cooler air aloft pinwheels around the persistent upper low over New England. A few more clouds and slightly cooler air aloft will drop maxT back 2 to 5 degrees with the greatest 24hr change over the far northeast zones. Med range guidance continues to indicate that upper troughing over northeastern North America will become more pronounced and extend southward into the Mid Atlantic region by the middle of the week.
522 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2020 Upper level analysis has a very amplified pattern across the CONUS with ridge over central portions and large trof over the west. Northern Plains lies just to the east of the western trof with closed low centered over southern Idaho. Cool front nudges eastward into central SD Tuesday as the upper trof and low start to move north-northeast through western MT.
711 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 Weak high pressure builds in from the north tonight.
1046 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 An upper level trough will be over the eastern US through much of week. Late in the week, the closed upper low will move east and should be replaced by a weak upper trough. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s with some cloud cover and mixing expected. The upper level low will linger over the Northeast through mid week. During the short term, a series of upper level disturbances will round the base of the trough and move over the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas.
841 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 High pressure sits over Lake Huron, and there it will continue to sit during the near-term period. A skinny 500mb ridge axis over eastern upper/nw lower MI will retrograde very slightly over Lake MI late tonight and Tuesday. Min temps tonight will continue to edge a little warmer, mid 50s east to mid 60s west. Max temps Tuesday upper 80s to near 90f, a little cooler on the Lake Huron coast.
953 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 High pressure will build south out of Ontario and remain in place through much of the week.
/issued 245 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020/ WV imagery shows a broad, upper trough over ID, and a ridge over the Gulf of Mexico, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under SW flow aloft. Diurnal mixing has brought some of the winds rounding the base of the trough to the sfc in the Guadalupes, for a few hours of high winds.
Showers and thunderstorms were ongoing this afternoon across the TN Valley, as the axis of a mid level ridge weakens over the area. Temps will drop into the lower to mid 70s by daybreak on Tuesday and with dewpoints in the upper 60s, expect there to be some patchy fog during the predawn hours. The axis of the mid level ridge will continue to push eastward on Tuesday and weaken as a mid level low swings into the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a strong ridge will begin to build into the Plains and Mississippi Valley bringing northwest flow over the TN Valley.
/issued 201 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020/ High pressure will continue to ridge across the area from the Atlantic with the ridge axis settling south as a broad low moves over the New England coast. Highs will be generally in the lower 90s near the coast to the mid 90s inland, with some upper 90s in pockets. Lows will be generally in the upper 70s to around 80 along the coast to the lower to mid 70s inland. High pressure ridging south of the area will keep a westerly flow across the coastal waters through the period.
CDG Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 89 71 84 72 / 30 80 70 80 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 85 68 83 68 / 60 60 70 80 70 Oak Ridge, TN 69 85 69 83 69 / 50 70 70 80 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 83 65 83 65 / 50 80 60 70 40.
847 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 A cold front will stall across North Carolina tonight as high pressure builds in from southeastern Canada. The front will attempt to return northward during the middle of the week as an upper low churns over New England. A backdoor cold front may drop into the region from the northeast late this week into the weekend. Our area will remain in subsidence behind a weak boundary over North Carolina and upper-level low pressure over New England tonight.
Temperatures will fall back to the low to mid 70s by morning. The ECMWF continues to be the most robust in developing storms near the KS/NE border, and this is likely due to keeping the warm front furthest south.
Little change is expected on Tuesday as high pressure remains in control with isolated to scattered diurnal sea breeze driven showers and storms again developing during the afternoon with the best coverage again setting up over interior locations and across southwest Florida. High pressure will maintain tranquil boating conditions over the Gulf waters the remainder of tonight through Tuesday with light west to northwest winds and slight seas with an enhanced onshore sea breeze component redeveloping along the coast Tuesday afternoon.
701 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020 While main upper air pattern has not changed much in recent days, still battling pesky short wave troughs or MCVs that are keeping convection quite active.