Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
332 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW/TROUGH DROPPED THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN WHILE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THOUGH EXPECT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WHICH COULD RESULT IN A POTPOURRI OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH.
A weak surface pressure trough associated with a storm system passing by well to the north of central Illinois will produce light SW winds shifting to W overnight, also helping to keep temperatures slightly warmer than previously anticipated. A surface pressure ridge will follow for early parts of the daytime, providing weak pressure gradients for light winds, but SSE winds will be on the increase by late afternoon as low pressure approaches from the west. Highs for today expected to feature little change from yesterday, with highs mainly mid 30s to low 40s, although expecting a warmer start to the morning due to mixing associated with the overnight pressure trough. Overnight lows a bit warmer tonight. and southerly winds pushing some warmer temps and moisture back into the region after todays mix out. Warmer air resulting in high temps well above normal.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH FREEZING TEMPS CONFINED MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 55. WHERE THE BEST AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
255 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015 FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION. SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN A MOISTER/WARMER AIRMASS. WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE VALLEY AROUND 09Z SAT MORNING. MODEL P TYPE PLOTS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS BOTH INDICATED FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS REGION HOWEVER VERY EFFICIENT MIXING WITH 25 TO 35 MPH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
253 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015 WARMING AND DRYING FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY EAT INTO THE LOW CLOUD DECK TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION IN THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF OUR AREA IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TONIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BRING A QUICK PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH/FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING SOME MORE IN THE MORNING WITH THE MIXING. AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO PASS. WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DIMINISHING SNOW COVER AIDING IN MIXING SOME OF THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE AREA HAS LED TO CALM WINDS AND SKC CONDITIONS.
255 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE STATE HAS KEPT CONDITIONS QUIET THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT NE OF THE REGION INTRODUCED A DECK OF LLVL CLOUDS. WHILE LIKELY EXHIBITING A DECENT RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT THANKS TO LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL PULL WARMER. GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM MN TO NORTHERN TX.
THINK THAT THE ISOLATED DENSE FOG IS THE RESULT A WEAK RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WEAK RIDGING WAS LOCATED FROM PDC. THIS RIDGE WAS MOVING TO THE EAST. WINDS TO THE WEST OF THIS RIDGE WERE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE LOW AND MID LVLS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY. WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THE HIGHEST OF THE YEAR SO FAR(UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S). A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
359 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015 SFC RIDGING HAS NOW SETTLED SE INTO WRN AL/CNTRL MS/CNTRL LA INTO SE TX THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BE EYEING THE NEXT COLD FRONT SET TO ENTER OUR NW ZONES SATURDAY EVENING.
FIRST UP IS THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN LIFTS NORTHEAST. MOST OF NOT ALL OF THE MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE LOW LEVELS WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THE CULPRIT IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON OCCURRENCE WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE INDICATED IN THE GRIDS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE WARM AND IF ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURS IT WILL BE MAINLY DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. IT WILL BECOME WINDY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH.
313 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2015 Warm and dry weather occurred today with high pressure off to the south and low pressure moving into the High Plains.
A cold front will move south and should reach KABI shortly after 18Z Saturday. The biggest influence will be the thin layer of high clouds associated with a 100 kt west-to-east oriented subtropical jet on the southern flank of the trough. Temps at 850 mb are progged to warm by 3-4C from yesterday afternoon, which should yield surface temps 5-7F warmer today. We should not see temperatures dipping too far below the freezing mark across the CWA, even in the favored cold spots in low-lying areas and river valleys.
Moderating temps begins today as high pressure anchors the surface and upper heights rebound.
1137 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2015 SURFACE FRONT WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS IOWA TODAY AS THERMAL RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL LIMIT SUNSHINE ALONG WITH HEATING WITH READINGS LIKELY ONLY REACHING FREEZING BY MID AFTERNOON. WITH MODELS TRENDING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS NORTHER PLAIN STATES. WILL SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND BOUNDARY. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHTLY WARMER TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH.
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A PATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS DON/T THINK THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO MAKE IT THROUGH DRY LAYER SO JUST INCLUDED SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT. WITH THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES SURFACE READINGS WILL BE VERY NEAR THE FREEZING POINT SO PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY BE EITHER. UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AWAY FROM THE THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
UPSTREAM SATELLITE SHOWS INCOMING TROUGH THIS EVENING BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN DIP BELOW FREEZING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW FOLLOWING TROUGH PASSAGE WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 50S.
1231 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING ONLY A CHANCE FOR SOME FLURRIES FOR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. TONIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WHICH WILL CAUSE A WARMER TOMORROW. CONTINUED BENIGN PATTERN IN SHORT TERM WITH EASTERN CANADA/LWR GRTLKS TROF ROTATING THROUGH CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH PROVIDING BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING INTO WRN GRTLKS BY F36. THOUGH RELAXATION OF THERMAL ADVECTION TO SLOW BY LATE AFTN WITH APPROACH OF RIDGE/COL. A SHARPENING/COOLER 925MB THERMAL GRADIENT THROUGH SRN LWR MI TO SWRN CWA SUGGEST MUCH SMALLER RISES.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.
Overnight, an upper trough currently over the PacNW will dig into the Midwest, and drop a weak cold front into the region, w/buffer soundings putting fropa at KMAF around 17Z. Still, temp progs suggest afternoon highs Saturday will remain well abv normal, and a few degrees warmer than today's.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
/ISSUED 1007 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015/ COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA EARLIER THIS MORNING. AS THIS BOUNDARY AT THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER. /ISSUED 410 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015/ LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS STRETCHING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. AS THIS TROUGH PUSHES OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL ALLOW THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PUSH DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. EASTERLY FLOW WILL THEN QUICKLY RETURN WITH ATLANTIC COASTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
404 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
AS SUCH OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL NOT BE OVERLY COLD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. WILL SEND DOWN A DRY AND BREEZY COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY /NRLY WIND SPEEDS OF 15-25 MPH/. THE COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS NOT EXCEPTIONAL COLD AND IN FACT. NWLY UPPER FLOW TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WITH A FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE WRN RIDGE AND ERN TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE CONUS.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS EASILY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE NEXT COLD FRONT (THIS ONE IS DRY) WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
333 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015 (Tonight and Saturday) Quiet weather will continue with mostly clear skies, and a weak, dry cold frontal passage on Saturday. Expect the colder readings to be in the low-lying areas and river valleys of our eastern and southern counties, where winds will be weak. Associated cold front will push south into our northern counties by late Saturday morning, and then across the rest of our area during the afternoon. This will be a weak front for our area, and temperatures are expected to reach the lower to mid 60s for highs across our northern counties.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL SK WITH COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN ID.
256 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015 WARMING AND DRYING FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY EAT INTO THE LOW CLOUD DECK TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION IN THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF OUR AREA IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TONIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BRING A QUICK PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH/FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING SOME MORE IN THE MORNING WITH THE MIXING. AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO PASS. WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DIMINISHING SNOW COVER AIDING IN MIXING SOME OF THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
A COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
254 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2015 Another afternoon with little to talk about as tranquil and unseasonably warm conditions prevail over the lower Missouri Vly. a weak cold front will swing across the area early to mid morning on Saturday. With strong sfc ridging cutting off any return flow from the GOM. continued warm air advection ahead of the front overnight will prevent temps from falling below freezing along and south of I-70. all statistical model guidance shows a normal diurnal temp curve through the afternoon with highs climbing up into the lower to middle 50s for most areas.
A weak surface pressure trough associated with a storm system passing by well to the north of central Illinois will produce light SW winds shifting to W overnight, also helping to keep temperatures slightly warmer than previously anticipated. A surface pressure ridge will follow for early parts of the daytime, providing weak pressure gradients for light winds, but SSE winds will be on the increase by late afternoon as low pressure approaches from the west. Highs for today expected to feature little change from yesterday, with highs mainly mid 30s to low 40, although expecting a warmer start to the morning due to mixing associated with the overnight pressure trough. Overnight lows a bit warmer tonight. and southerly winds pushing some warmer temps and moisture back into the region after todays mix out. Warmer air resulting in high temps well above normal.
MID LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOISTURE SOUTHWARD TODAY WITH DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
1159 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES THIS MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS ALSO APPROACHING THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT BITTER COLD AND BREEZY DAY ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM JUST BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH TO THE LOW TEENS ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
352 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 70S.
1259 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S SOUTH. ANOTHER SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH RISING HEIGHTS.
15 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED THAT A LEE-SIDE TROUGH WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND THIS SHOULD PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. A STRONGER TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THE HEELS OF THE SMALLER SYSTEM. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
Lows tonight will fall into the single digits to the lower teens. With high pressure moving through, wind speeds will be light, along with mostly clear skies.
SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THE COLD FRONT STRETCHES ROUGHLY LITTLE ROCK TO BOWLING GREEN. WE'VE GOT THE FREEZING LINE REACHING MARION COUNTY ABOUT 10Z THURSDAY MORNING. FREEZING RAIN. IF ONE OF THOSE CONVECTIVE CELLS WERE TO OCCUR WITHIN THE COLDEST (SUB-FREEZING) LOCATIONS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT NORTHERN TERMINALS.
WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO EXPECTING HIGHS TO BE A JUST COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. IF SO EVEN WITH WARMER START THAN EXPECTED SINGLE DIGITS MAY BE THE BEST WE CAN DO. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE LONE MODEL WITH QPF ACROSS THE NORTH WITH WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE AND WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.
A cold front, with gusty surface winds from the north, will continue to push south across West Central Texas this evening. Temperatures along and north of our Interstate 20 corridor have fallen below the freezing mark. Model forecast soundings indicate freezing rain or sleet will be the dominant precipitation types. Our main concern for tonight and tomorrow is icy roads, bridges, and overpasses. Although we expect weather to end by 12Z tomorrow morning, temperatures will likely not warm above freezing until tomorrow afternoon.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GOOD LIFT OVERNIGHT INTO MID DAY THURDAY ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO THE WE TN VALLEY EARLY TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL GO THROUGH TRANSITION AS THE COLD LAYER UNDERCUTS WARMER AIR ALOFT. FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO A LONGER PERIOD OF SLEET AS THE RELATIVELY DEEP WARM LAYER SHRINKS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
255 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015 RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. UPPER TROUGH FROM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO SOCAL BAJA. SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE CAROLINAS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR THE LAST FEW WEEKS. AS MENTIONED THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILD EAST THURSDAY. UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ITS SOUTH AND EAST PROGRESSION AND BLOCK DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST.
AND PROVIDE GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
239 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE WARMER RAP MODEL TODAY SUGGESTING 20S FOR HIGHS IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE COLD FRONT AT 19Z WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM NEAR SAVANNAH TENNESSEE. THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MAKING IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. RAIN COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES AFTER 23/00Z AND WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AROUND 9-11Z.
812 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015 Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 34 37 22 46 / 90 100 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 32 35 18 41 / 90 100 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 30 33 18 41 / 90 100 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 32 35 17 42 / 90 100 10 10 NC.
MOS GUIDANCE WAS ALREADY ON THE LOWER SIDE BUT THE MODEL BLENDS WERE HIGHER. ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AND MID LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION. EXPECT THE LAPSE RATES TO WEAKEN AFTER DARK BY THE TIME THE THERMAL TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT. PLAN ON ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND A LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES INTO ILLINOIS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES OVER THE COMING DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER LINGERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THE MORE IMPORTANT INFLUENCE WILL BE A LONGWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH A MILDER AIR MASS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.
ONCE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST AND OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND ANY FLURRY ACTIVITY WILL END. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY. WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
252 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS NOW SLIPPED INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AS EVIDENCE BY WINDS GOING NORTH/NORTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES FALLING ACROSS THE AREA. FREEZING RAIN LOOKS TO BE A SHORT DURATION IF IT OCCURS AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW 32 TONIGHT. LOW VISIBILITIES AND LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT.
BULK OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION NOW HEADING INTO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES AS COLDER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE PUSHES SOUTHEAST. SNOW WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
323 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015 LIFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. BUT WILL PASS THIS ON TO THE EVENING SHIFT FOR NOW AS IT APPEARS THE TROUGH AXIS/MOISTURE SHOULD SHIFT SE OF US BY THEN. THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST TOMORROW WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS.
WILL EXPECT TO SEE CIGS TO LOWER QUICKLY TO IFR/LIFR AFTER 00Z AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THICK CLOUD COVERAGE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA SO HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS TO THE WARMER SIDE ACROSS THE EAST.
THICK CLOUD COVERAGE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA SO HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS TO THE WARMER SIDE ACROSS THE EAST.
207 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA LATER TODAY AND THURSDAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS TODAY FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT.
335 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 A SECONDARY ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS MAINTAINING WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. RIDGING OVERHEAD BEGINS ITS RETREAT AS MID LEVEL TROUGHING AND A SURFACE FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
THE GENERAL FORECAST OF A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. BANDING SEEN IN SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS IS CONCERNING AS WELL. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET. A STRONG COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIX DEVELOPING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WHILE SPREADING TO REMAINING AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 90 BY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE TENTH INCH POSSIBLE.
AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT TAKING ITS TIME AND IS JUST NOW PUSHING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO IOWA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. BUT EXPECT CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER. THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK WILL BE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH IOWA SEEING ONLY GLANCING BLOWS OF COOLER AIR AFTER THE CURRENT POLAR AIRMASS EXITS.
242 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015 SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND IT.
304 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY.
COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THEN THE HIGH SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION.
943 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SNOW COMING TO AN END FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
936 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015 Mild high pressure will build over the Inland Northwest the next few days bringing a prolonged period of dry weather.
937 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE DRY.
935 AM PST WED MAR 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA AND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON NORTH. AND WE EXPECT A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE HILL COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO PERSIST UNTIL LATE MORNING THURSDAY. AND TEMPERATURES SIMULTANEOUSLY WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING. THUS LIMITING THE IMPACT TO MAINLY BRIDGES AND OTHER ELEVATED ROADS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR INTO MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE WEST. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL PREVENT EASTERN AREAS FROM DROPPING OFF MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT.
307 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 CURRENTLY - A LARGE ATLANTIC HIGH EXTENDING A RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST - THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT EASTWARD AS A MIDLATITUDE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES LATE THIS WEEK. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL WEAKEN AT THIS TIME. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PLAINS WITH A LEE TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. SURFACE WINDS TURN WESTERLY AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BEGINS TO EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER BATCH OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH OVER SRN AZ TRANSLATES ACROSS THE AREA. WE SHOULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO HELP EASE TRAVEL CONCERNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL SEE WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THIS PATTERN. WITH THE GENERAL TROUGHING.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 69 34 37 22 / 80 90 100 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 32 35 18 / 80 90 100 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 67 30 33 18 / 80 90 100 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 65 32 35 17 / 80 90 100 10 TN.
NAM REMAINS THE WARMEST MODEL IN TERMS OF SURFACE TEMPS HANGING ON ABOVE FREEZING A BIT LONGER AS WELL AS HAVING THE STRONGEST WARM NOSE ALOFT. MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER END BEING CLOSER TO THE KY BORDER AND I65.