Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
350 AM MDT Mon Jul 26 2021 Upper level ridging will continue to be the dominant features for Northeast Montana through the forecast period.
Cooler temperatures early this week before warming to above average again by mid-week.
Expect a return to a more typical monsoonal pattern this week with high pressure building back in over the Four Corners region. On Tuesday, coverage will be a bit more isolated and mainly along the high terrain.
Strong high pressure will once again reside over the rocky mountains into the Northern Rockies. Hot temperatures under this ridge in addition to widespread smoke from area wildfires will be the primary impacts across the Northern Rockies today and Tuesday. Mid and upper level monsoonal moisture is rotating around the high pressure from California, Oregon and into central Idaho and western Montana.
603 AM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021 (Today and tonight) Upper level high pressure over the Southern Plains will continue to influence our weather as we start the work week. Lows will be in the lower to mid 70s.
This is occurring as northwest Texas remains beneath an eastward extention of mid-level monsoon moisture trapped within broad upper ridging. The upper high that has been to our east will find itself moving into the Rocky Mountains/Central Plains regions by early Tuesday.
A very weak cold front near the Ohio River will continue to crawl south and east across Kentucky today.
The low level deck extends to the AUS sites however the latest observation for AUS shows SCT008. No precipitation is expected today across the area as upper level ridging dominates the region. In addition, a passing upper level inverted trough is helping out the area to stay dry and warm. By Tuesday, the upper level ridging moves to the north and allows the inverted trough to move into the northeast of Mexico. Based on this assessment and some of the HiRes and medium range models, Tuesday's highs are forecast to be a bit cooler than today as moisture increases leading to more clouds and even a slight chance for rain across the far east part of the local area.
An additional band of showers extends across the southern Gulf Stream waters, wrapping on the southern extent of the low. Highs will reach the low to mid 90s today, with a heat index of 101-105.
The upper level ridge over the Southern Plains will slide west as the upper level low begins to move into eastern Mexico over the next several days. As the low moves west, an inverted trough will affect South Texas bringing back rain and storm chances. After inverted trough moves on and before the next mid-level disturbance, PWAT's will drop as mid- levels dry out.
302 AM MDT Mon Jul 26 2021 The center of the upper level ridge extended across northwest UT and north/central NV, with the monsoonal moisture plume across the Desert Southwest. Large scale subsidence beneath the upper ridge will suppress most convection today. The exception may be southern Carbon and Albany counties where the high-res models generate widely scattered afternoon and early evening convection. With the low/mid level thermal ridge centered over the CWA, high temperatures outside the mountains will range from 90 to 104.
High pressure aloft starts to build into the FA again fm the NW.
SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): After some potential patchy fog early this morning, today will be another hot summer day with mostly sunny skies and light to moderate southeasterly winds as high pressure remains in control. An inverted trough/closed mid level low will develop over the western Gulf of Mexico today and move across Deep South Texas on Tuesday as it rotates around the base of the mid level ridge. Temperatures will be near normal or even a few degrees below in the Rio Grande Valley today and slightly cooler on Tuesday.
A weak cold front will begin to push through the area this afternoon bringing more numerous showers and thunderstorms with it. The cold front should move out of the area by Tuesday evening.
/issued 408 AM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021/ SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): After some potential patchy fog early this morning, today will be another hot summer day with mostly sunny skies and light to moderate southeasterly winds as high pressure remains in control. An inverted trough/closed mid level low will develop over the western Gulf of Mexico today and move across Deep South Texas on Tuesday as it rotates around the base of the mid level ridge. Temperatures will be near normal or even a few degrees below in the Rio Grande Valley today and slightly cooler on Tuesday.
Warmer and drier for mid week, then a little more monsoonal moisture and return of afternoon thunderstorm chances for the latter part of the week.
(Today and tonight) Overnight moist convection is slowly beginning to wane across northwestern OK along a subtle convergence zone within mid level theta-e ridge.
406 AM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021 More thunderstorms have developed early this morning along a warm front draped across the far south. The strongest activity should begin to diminish by the later morning hours as the low level jet backs off. The axis of a broad western US ridge will creep east towards the region through the day as it amplifies, leading to more hot temperatures. There is a bit of uncertainty where the low/frontal boundary will be when the better mid level forcing arrives. The heat will be the main story on Tuesday as the ridge axis continues to move closer to the Montana North Dakota border.
629 AM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021 High pressure will bring dry and pleasant today, before a frontal system spreads scattered thunderstorms into NY and PA on Tuesday.
The higher moisture and surface forcing will be along the Tennessee River Valley where values of SBCAPE could get up to 2000-2500 J/kg. This combination of fuel, moisture, and lift will support afternoon storms expected to start out in North Georgia and use the upper-level northwesterly flow in the lee-side of a high amplitude blocking ridge over the Great Plains to push southward throughout the afternoon and early evening. By Tuesday, a high pressure in the Midwest will push a weak, high- pressure-driven 'cold' front into North Georgia, the first in a long while. Highs mostly in the low 90s will range 0-5 degrees above normal, with morning lows in the low 70s around 3-8 degrees above normal.
449 AM MDT Mon Jul 26 2021 Current surface map shows warm front across far northwest South Dakota. Robust ridge continues to pump the heat into the area with 850mb temperatures peaking around 35C Tuesday.
/issued 314 AM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021/ A strong U/L ridge will extend from the inter-mountain west across the southeast U.
Despite mostly clear skies through Tuesday, E/SE winds should keep temperatures and dew points from getting too out of hand, with highs/heat index readings in the low 90s/mid 90s today and the low 90s/upper 90s on Tuesday.
Temperatures will be similar to yesterday with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s under a somewhat flattened ridge. On Tuesday, the ridge will start to build back to the east as it amplifies over the Intermountain West and High Plains.
Deep monsoon moisture along with a weak low will bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the district today, especially over the higher elevations of the Sierra as well as Kern county mountains and desert.
More thunderstorms have developed early this morning along a warm front draped across the far south. The strongest activity should begin to diminish by the later morning hours as the low level jet backs off. The axis of a broad western US ridge will creep east towards the region through the day as it amplifies, leading to more hot temperatures. There is a bit of uncertainty where the low/frontal boundary will be when the better mid level forcing arrives. The heat will be the main story on Tuesday as the ridge axis continues to move closer to the Montana North Dakota border.
Otherwise, with warmer air building in today and Tuesday as the upper level high pressure area expands and closes off over the central U.
304 AM MDT Mon Jul 26 2021 The center of the upper level ridge extended across northwest UT and north/central NV, with the monsoonal moisture plume across the Desert Southwest. Large scale subsidence beneath the upper ridge will suppress most convection today. The exception may be southern Carbon and Albany counties where the high-res models generate widely scattered afternoon and early evening convection. With the low/mid level thermal ridge centered over the CWA, high temperatures outside the mountains will range from 90 to 104.
635 AM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021 High pressure over Illinois and eastern Missouri will allow doe another warm day with limited chanced for showers and thunderstorms. Where storm develop however, temperatures may be slightly cooler thanks to the localized increased cloud cover and rainfall. Temperatures will remain in the lower 70s for most of the region with areas in the eastern Ozarks falling into he middle 60s, especially in valleys and low lying areas.
A weak low pressure is still sitting off the coast of the FL/GA state line and is expected to move inland through the day. Breezes have collapsed since the overnight wind surge caused by the gradient caused by this low pressure and are now generally light. High pressure and the associated ridge will build back westward through the day as the low pressure dissipates, helping to keep our winds generally from the southeast to south. From synopsis, Low pressure centered east of north Florida will move inland over the the coast of northeast Florida or Georgia. This will allow a strong ridge over the central Atlantic to build across the Florida Keys and South Florida throughout the week.
709 AM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021 A ridge of high pressure will build over Pennsylvania today.
642 AM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021 High pressure and summertime heat will persist through midweek.
Tuesday will be another hot and humid day, with temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Heat index values of 95-105 degrees can be expected, with the highest values across portions of far southeast Kansas and southwestern Missouri.
Warmer and drier for mid week, then a little more monsoonal moisture and return of afternoon thunderstorm chances for the latter part of the week. Thunderstorms will gradually migrate more into the high desert later this afternoon. The upper low (easterly wave) responsible for all this activity will rotate northward tonight and Tuesday, sweeping away much of the moisture.
Inverted midlevel troughing then approaches for Tuesday, which when combined with a few surface boundaries and areas of convection observed via satellite that are drifting westward over the central and eastern Gulf, may help to initiate some widely scattered showers and storms across portions of Deep South Texas.
(Today and tonight) Upper level high pressure over the Southern Plains will continue to influence our weather as we start the work week. Lows will be in the lower to mid 70s. (Tuesday night through next Monday) The upper-level ridge will dominate the weather picture for the next several days. This should result in plentiful sunshine with high temperatures around 100 degrees and lows in the low to mid 70s.
1119 AM MDT Mon Jul 26 2021 The center of the upper level ridge extended across northwest UT and north/central NV, with the monsoonal moisture plume across the Desert Southwest. Large scale subsidence beneath the upper ridge will suppress most convection today. The exception may be southern Carbon and Albany counties where the high-res models generate widely scattered afternoon and early evening convection. With the low/mid level thermal ridge centered over the CWA, high temperatures outside the mountains will range from 90 to 104.
304 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021 The initial forecast concern is the heat related headlines before some cooler/thunderstorm chances come back to the forecast.
Upper level analysis has the ridge extending over the Rockies, with northwest flow across the area.
Today look for continued hot temperatures under high pressure and mostly clear skies. This moisture will increase through the week with the highest levels expected over the weekend.
(Today through Tuesday afternoon) WV imagery shows the upper ridge extending from NV down into Texas and the ArklaTex. Although residual boundaries from earlier thunderstorms will be knocking about this afternoon, CAMs suggest much less convective coverage, confining thunderstorms to the higher terrain due to upslope easterly flow, mainly this afternoon and evening.
1250 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021 High pressure located over the Midwest will drift over Ohio by sunrise. A weakening cold front will attempt to cross Lake Erie Tuesday night.
Main synoptic scale warm front will likely push up into ND this afternoon, and that should be the focus for late afternoon/evening convection, that will then slide southeast over the northeast part of the ABR CWA. Otherwise, with warmer air building in today and Tuesday as the upper level high pressure area expands and closes off over the central U.
The upper ridge will build slightly through tomorrow afternoon with less cloud cover tomorrow morning than this morning.
918 AM MDT Mon Jul 26 2021 Strong high pressure will continue to dominate our weather. The Excessive Heat Warning remains unchanged, starting today at 10 AM for all but the higher elevations. Overnight lows will warmer tonight than the last couple, with most areas being in the mid to upper 60s for lows. Tuesday's highs will be the highest in about a week, and some locations from Billings and Sheridan east could see temperatures as high as 105 to 110 degrees. Both days will be very dry across the area, with humidity in the afternoon in the lower teens to upper single digits. A cold front will be dropping down from the northeast late in the evening Tuesday.
A few weak disturbances are noted within and around the expansive ridge, including a couple of weak impulses over the western and northeast Gulf of Mexico. At the sfc, weak high pres acrs the region was resulting in light and generally vrbl winds, while a weak trough was noted over the cntl and eastern Gulf. KLCH radar shows sctd showers and storms developing from NE LA southward to the lower Atchafalaya Basin, within an axis of 2+ inch PWATs.
No precipitation is expected today across the area as upper level ridging dominates the region. In addition, a passing upper level inverted trough is helping out the area to stay dry and warm. By Tuesday, the upper level ridging moves to the north and allows the inverted trough to move into the northeast of Mexico. Based on this assessment and some of the HiRes and medium range models, Tuesday's highs are forecast to be a bit cooler than today as moisture increases leading to more clouds and even a slight chance for rain across the far east part of the local area.
1237 PM MDT Mon Jul 26 2021 Current surface map shows warm front across far northwest South Dakota. Robust ridge continues to pump the heat into the area with 850mb temperatures peaking around 35C Tuesday.
(This afternoon through Tuesday night) The subtropical ridge continues to build across the central and northern plains. The southern plains will remain on the southern periphery of the high during the short term period. Thunderstorms will be possible this evening across southeast New Mexico, mainly over the higher terrain, but a few thunderstorms may reach down into the far western plains along convective outflow boundaries. Tomorrow afternoon, thunderstorm chances will return to southeast New Mexico, primarily over the higher terrain once again. This area will have slightly warmer temperatures and slightly higher moisture building in from the east and will potentially reach convective temperature during the afternoon. Highs will be near to slightly above average as the highest heights will continue to be to our north.
130 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021 High pressure will continue to settle down across the region tonight through Tuesday, pushing slightly lower dew point air into the area, especially from southern IL into southwest IN.
The lower visibilities/fog will be from ALI to VCT while the lower CIGs will be generally along and west of Highway 77. The upper level ridge over the Southern Plains will slide west as the upper level low begins to move into eastern Mexico over the next several days. As the low moves west, an inverted trough will affect South Texas bringing back rain and storm chances. After inverted trough moves on and before the next mid-level disturbance, PWAT's will drop as mid- levels dry out.
A broad upper level ridge is keeping the warm and muggy airmass in place through the near term. Winds very light/calm on obs across the area this afternoon enhancing the impacts of the high heat index values across the region.
249 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021 Weak high pressure will maintain control through early Tuesday, with rain free conditions.
234 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021 Weak high pressure will maintain control through early Tuesday, with rain free conditions.
Otherwise, monitoring a small complex of thunderstorms moving through west-central MN which was on a warm front moving north into the area and on the nose of 850mb moisture transport. Will see the likelihood of storm re-initiation this afternoon along that aforementioned warm front across portions of central MN into northern WI. This will be in response to a weak mid- level trough interacting with the warm front with a localized increase in 850mb moisture transport and low level warm air advection. For Tuesday, after a few lingering showers/storms, appears mid-level ridging takes place over the area for quiet/very warm and increasingly humid conditions. Aforementioned warm front become nearly stationary somewhere between the I-90/94 corridors Tuesday night with yet another weak impulse riding in from the Northern Plains.
A large upper level ridge continues to loom over much of the CONUS.
SFC winds are light and variable with upper level flow E/SE above the freezing level helping to nudge convection westward during the afternoon. Coverage will remain spotty, but should continue to drift the boundaries into the heart of the four state area with upper level winds ESE above the freezing level. Meanwhile, the low 90s will become mid to upper 90s with our heat index running above 105 degrees.
Freezing levels are high and deep layer shear is low but highest in the northeast part of the forecast area.
243 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021 High pressure and summertime heat will persist through midweek.
A strong upper level ridge of high pressure was centered over northern Colorado. A series of weak upper level disturbances rotating around the backside of the upper high will move into SE TX on Tuesday. 00 inches with convective temperatures in the lower 90's. Soundings do show a weak near 700 mb but this should be overcome once temperatures reach the lower 90's.
Will basically keep the small chances along and east of the Buffalo Ridge. A few model soundings do hint at breaking the cap at the expense of drying out the low levels and obliterating the instability, but would still be enough for a couple of weak updrafts.
243 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021 High pressure centered over southeast Iowa has brought clear conditions to most of the region today with a steady feed of drier air from the northeast. Aloft, the upper level ridge across the Rockies will begin to expand and intensify into the central Plains on Tuesday. Rising heights and return flow on the western side of the departing ridge of high pressure will lead to an increase in temperature on Tuesday with highs in the lower 90s.
Latest GOES-16 WV imagery places a somewhat elongated Subtropical Ridge to our northwest, centered over southeastern Colorado. This low will have a small influence on our local weather, acting to trigger the seabreeze tomorrow as enhanced moisture return is noted in hi- res guidance for Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will remain on the toasty side, with 1PM obs already in the lower to middle 90s across the region. A mild and muggy night tonight as temperatures remain near seasonal norms in the lower to middle 70s. Expect a "slightly" cooler day on Tuesday, as a weak mid-level impulse rounds the eastern periphery of the Subtropical Ridge to our northwest, resulting in some isolated showers or storms developing by midday, especially across the Coastal Plains, Hill Country, and portions of the Southern Edwards Plateau.
High pressure over Illinois and eastern Missouri will allow doe another warm day with limited chanced for showers and thunderstorms. Where storm develop however, temperatures may be slightly cooler thanks to the localized increased cloud cover and rainfall. Temperatures will remain in the lower 70s for most of the region with areas in the eastern Ozarks falling into he middle 60s, especially in valleys and low lying areas.
A surge of monsoonal moisture over the Great Basin will begin to move over southern portions of the state Tuesday, as an upper high starts to shift over the Central Plains.
319 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021 High pressure and summertime heat will persist through midweek.
Also, the upper level ridge is forecast to weaken just slightly over the area. (Tuesday night through next Monday) The upper-level ridge will dominate the weather picture for the next several days. This should result in plentiful sunshine with high temperatures around 100 degrees and lows in the low to mid 70s.
238 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021 Chances for showers and storms will continue this afternoon and evening as a weak upper trough and associated boundary move to the southeast.
Thankfully, deep low level mixing has allowed some of the drier air in the low levels of the atmosphere to make it down to the surface, which has kept humidity and heat indices in check. Thermodynamics will become increasingly hostile with southward extent, with increasing amounts of low level dry air and warmer temps in the 900-700 MB layer.
An upper ridge will remain centered from the Central Rockies into the Central Plains tonight and Tuesday.
Another weak low pressure is still sitting off the coast of the FL/GA state line and is expected to move inland over the next few hours. Ridging is currently trying to build back in from the east as this low moves inland, which is helping to support gentle to light southeast to south breezes across the Florida Keys and surrounding coastal waters. As ridging continues to build back into the area, our winds will remain from the southeast to south before taking on more of an east to southeasterly direction by mid week.
A mid level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico is progged to shift west tonight into Tuesday. Tuesday evening is expected to be quiet, then a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms will return to the eastern CWA late Tue night after midnight in response to the upper low drifting west across deep S TX into northeastern Mexico.
1258 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021 (Today and tonight) Upper level high pressure over the Southern Plains will continue to influence our weather as we start the work week. Lows will be in the lower to mid 70s.
Cloud cover associated with mid-level moisture will gradually spread east today with isolated thunderstorms across eastern Oregon and the higher terrain in Idaho this afternoon and evening. High temperatures today will be hot and should surpass 100 degrees in the lower valleys.
Heat wave and high pressure ridge in control. Previous discussion: Upper level ridging will continue to be the dominant features for Northeast Montana through the forecast period.
1046 AM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021 (Today and tonight) Overnight moist convection is slowly beginning to wane across northwestern OK along a subtle convergence zone within mid level theta-e ridge.
550 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021 Weak high pressure will maintain control through early Tuesday, with rain free conditions.
Skies will slowly clear tonight with lows reaching the lower to mid 70s. The evening will start with a south wind flow, shifting from the southwest after midnight as the Atlantic ridge starts to push towards the FL peninsula and a low pressure moves away from the local waters.
Model guidance continues to indicate lobes of vorticity on the NW periphery of the upper ridge to the SE advecting across the northern portion of the area.