Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Another day of above seasonal norms will take shape today courtesy of UA ridging promoting dry conditions and warm conditions. However, the wx pattern is anticipated to change as a Pacific disturbance moves onshore across northern CA/southern OR, which will push the UA ridge towards the southeastern U. A weak UL perturbation near BRO early this morning is poised to wane while translating northeast along the western periphery of the aforementioned ridge hence nearing the region tomorrow.
/Issued 510 AM CDT Mon Oct 31 2016/ Cold front stalled across the region will begin to move north later today as a warm front with afternoon temperatures climbing back into the both today and tomorrow. Normally temperatures to start the month of November should be in the upper 60s, so we will start out the new month much warmer than normal. A second northern stream trough will move through the Northern Plains as the southern stream trough moves into the desert southwest before retrograding slightly south and west.
Weak troughing to the north is also keeping the precipitation going. By Wed morning, high pressure has built in from the southwest and has shifted the storm track much farther north. This allows clear skies and a return of temperatures much warmer than normal.
Above the stratus, a fairly dense cirrus canopy existed with weak upper ridging across the Central Plains.
/Issued 407 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016/ Ridging aloft will continue through the short term. Max temperatures on Tuesday should be a bit cooler mainly eastern zones due to an easterly wind flow.
The other hazard today will be very strong westerly winds developing behind the low pressure, in particular affecting KDIK and KBIS.
1036 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 High pressure over the Great Lakes will advance down the east slopes of the Appalachians today and tonight behind a cold front.
With time, the lower clouds are expected to lift as a warm front tracks northward into the area, with partly sunny conditions prevailing by afternoon. while weak cold front has dropped well to the south into southern Kentucky and the Ozarks. As the high shifts further away, winds will gradually veer to the southeast by this afternoon. With winds becoming more southerly and increasing due to a tightening pressure gradient, temperatures tonight will be considerably warmer than in recent nights. A cold front will begin to approach from the northwest Tuesday night: however, most model guidance favors post-frontal precip developing north of the KILX CWA across Iowa into northern Illinois.
640 AM CDT Mon Oct 31 2016 High pressure centered over the eastern Great Lakes region will continue drifting east today. Temperatures will be tricky again today as wind in the low levels turns to the south and southwest. Short range guidance is showing that this will advect the low clouds over southwest Missouri back over our area during the morning. MOS Lows in the low to mid 60s look reasonable.
713 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the central U. with troughs in New England and another on the west coast. Models suggest that a mainly zonal pattern will give way to a building ridge from the plains into central Canada. The exposed west facing higher terrain of the Keweenaw could see gusts approaching 45 mph, per momentum transfer progs, as the stability decreases behind the cold front.
Current temperatures are running about 2 degrees warmer than they were at this time yesterday. mostly in the warmer direction.
/issued 332 AM CDT Mon Oct 31 2016/ Strong high over the Atlantic is providing strong ridging which will continue the dry spell.
718 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 Aviation An area of high pressure over the eastern part of Michigan will track east tonight. A weak cold front will move into the state on Tuesday and stall out.
738 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 High pressure over the Great Lakes will advance down the east slopes of the Appalachians today and tonight behind a cold front.
948 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 As high pressure travels east through the Great Lakes today and tonight, a warm front will move northeast into the region.
Still on track for some of our max temp records to be threatened today as we climb into the upper 80s and even into the lower 90s. Another day of above seasonal norms will take shape today courtesy of UA ridging promoting dry conditions and warm conditions. However, the wx pattern is anticipated to change as a Pacific disturbance moves onshore across northern CA/southern OR, which will push the UA ridge towards the southeastern U. A weak UL perturbation near BRO early this morning is poised to wane while translating northeast along the western periphery of the aforementioned ridge hence nearing the region tomorrow.
Significant mid-level warming will take place today as low pressure lifts from North Dakota to NW Ontario. Strengthening gradient at the surface as the lower portion of the warm conveyor shifts overhead will prevent much in the way of nocturnal cooling. Clouds will help keep records at the surface out of reach, but nonetheless area-wide highs in the low to mid 70s are likely.
The low will pass to the north later tonight and early Tuesday, bringing a cold front through the western Great Lakes as it tracks through the region. Lows tonight will be fairly mild given the late arrival of the cold front and continued cloudiness, only dropping into the upper 40s to lower 50s. The cold front itself will not have much of a push of cold air behind it, in fact temperatures on Tuesday are forecast to be balmy to start out November with highs ranging from the upper 50s to middle 60s under mostly sunny skies.
1121 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 High pressure building in this morning will allow for plenty of sunshine and cooler than normal temperatures today.
Broad upper ridging extends from the Gulf Coast up through the Southern and Central Plains with large scale upper troughing over the western third of the CONUS. This broad scale ridge has allowed for near record to record breaking temperatures across much of the U. For today, upper ridging will gradually intensify, and with a relatively dry and stable airmass at the surface, the rule will be another day of above normal temperatures.
1033 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 High pressure centered over the Great Lakes early this morning will build to the east and it should influence our weather through Tuesday.
928 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will gradually build eastward into New England today. The high will crest across the area tonight before retreating offshore on Tuesday.
1222 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 High pressure centered over the Great Lakes early this morning will build to the east and it should influence our weather through Tuesday.
Today Through Tuesday Night An upper ridge over the central part of the country will move east today. Zonal flow over Arkansas will become southwest tonight as the high center slides east to Florida and this setup will continue through Tuesday night. With the ridge axis alligned over Arkansas today, warmer temperatures are expected. Highs today will be in the lower 80s north to upper 80s in the south. More of the same is expected for Tuesday with temperatures a degree or two cooler.
Aloft, a broad longwave ridge resides over the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS while a modest trough axis oriented NW-SE is positioned over the Pacific NW through the 4-Corners region.
952 AM CDT Mon Oct 31 2016 Per the 11-13 UTC RAP and 12 UTC NAM BUFR soundings, expanded the High Wind Warning and the Wind Advisory further east across southern North Dakota and extended the valid time further into the evening.
Today will be very similar to the past several days with a ridge of high pressure the dominant feature. Afternoon high temperatures will mostly be in the mid to upper 80s across the area, but a few warmer locations may actually see 90 degrees.
Building high pressure will bring mostly dry and cool weather through the weekend. Near freezing temperatures will be possible near the coast again tonight while daytime high temperatures will increase by only a few degrees into the weekend.
645 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2017 High pressure will dominate through the long holiday weekend resulting in fair weather with seasonable temperatures. Ridging will build in at the surface tonight as the flow aloft becomes zonal. The brisk and gusty winds will decrease this evening and become light overnight as pressure gradient weakens as the ridge builds in.
Will see clearing from the valley west this evening however with some mixing and warmer column temperatures will not be nearly as cold with lows generally in the single digits blo zero. With warmer start temperatures should be able to recover into the teens saturday. Overall a pleasant day with sunshine, warmer temperatures and lighter winds.
Rain and freezing rain will the spread from south to north through the morning on Saturday. Believe that any freezing rain at AMA will turn to rain by mid morning. DHT should see mainly rain and GUY will likely be in the freezing rain for much of the day on Saturday.
706 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2017 High pressure will build in from the west tonight and Saturday.
The aforementioned cold front will remain positioned just to the north on Saturday.
1033 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2017 A cold front has moved south of the area and will stall offshore with high pressure building in from the north through Saturday.
Latest sounding reveals warming temperatures aloft and a strengthening inversion which will maintain the development of fog and stratus in the low valleys.
The medium range models have diverged a bit with their latest runs, in regards to the track and timing of the low as it moves across the western Great Lakes.
Also removed threat for freezing rain across southern and southeast Indiana as temperatures remain 34 degrees or warmer and with no push of colder air expected this evening, feel this threat for icing is north of the forecast area. Average sfc-500 flow around an upper ridge over the Gulf of Mexico is bringing moisture northward into the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Waves of precipitation will continue to break out along the periphery of the ridge north of a surface boundary stretching from the central Appalachians to the Tennessee Valley and Red River Valley. As temperatures tumble toward the freezing mark Saturday night, there is a non-zero but small chance of some light freezing rain in Indiana north of a Paoli-Madison line.
854 PM MST Fri Jan 13 2017 Satellite imagery showing increased moisture over the southern and SE portions of the CWA as the low over Southern CA continues to bring southerly flow. In the mountains mostly cloudy conditions will prevail in the high valleys so had to increase overnight lows in those areas to account for the lack of radiational cooling. Upper low over Southern California Coast with a continued southwest flow aloft over Colorado.
The cold front that passed through the mid state last night into the early morning hours this morning has stalled near the AL border. Some of the cold air even stalled along the Plateau since some of the higher elevation locations are in the upper 50s, and areas still being impacted by the cold air are in the 40s. The good news is that as the next trough approaches the region, WAA will return and push the cold air back northward, and bring above average temps back to the mid state starting tomorrow.
Isentropic lift will develop Saturday morning with freezing rain breaking out during the day and advancing northward.
A stationary front lingered over southeastern Middle Tennessee this evening, with temperatures in the 50s to the south of the front and in the lower and middle 40s to the north. A stronger inverted trough will develop across the mid state tomorrow and greatly increase our rain chances by afternoon.
NE/E winds continue with low-level ridging focused on the Deep South but still north of our local coastal waters.
/issued 345 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017/ Stalled cold front remains just along the wrn and nrn CWA boundaries of E TX/SE OK/SW AR this afternoon. The front is fcst to begin to move back nwd tonight as low pressure in the plains deepens.
Near normal temperatures are expected with highs climbing into the low 20s north of I-90 to near 30 south.
/00Z TAFS/ The slow moving shallow cold front will be the main challenge to impact the TAF periods, especially at AUS where radar imagery suggests the boundary entering the northern 5 mile vcnty ring. The boundary of the shallow cold front has progressed very slowly southward this afternoon as evident off GRK radar and area surface observations.
1032 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2017 Mean layer analyses from CIMMS indicate deep ridging persists across the Florida Keys. Temperatures are in the lower 70s with dewpoints in the lower 60s.
942 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2017 High pressure will dominate through the long holiday weekend resulting in fair weather with seasonable temperatures. High pressure over the Great Lakes will build eastward into our region tonight as the flow aloft becomes zonal. The brisk and gusty winds will continue to decrease the rest of this evening and become light overnight as pressure gradient weakens as the ridge builds in.
Currently, split flow aloft over North America with deep low pressure off the southern CA coast and weak upper level troughing over central Canada. Very nice temperature recovery from yesterday, 15-25 degrees warmer this afternoon compared to 24 hours ago. A sunny sky coupled with a southwest wind at 5-10 mph will bring a similar day temperature wise compared to today, a few degrees warmer north and east with highs there in the teens with near 25 southwest. Upper level low ejecting through the Central Plains merges with an Alberta Clipper moving southeast across the Northern Plains.
A massive ridge continues to hold off inclement winter weather across most of the Southeastern U. The dividing line between a much cooler airmass and a very pleasant mild early Spring-like airmass is in position along the Cumberland Plateau northeast into the Central Appalachians.
A disturbance in the northwest flow aloft will exit the area this evening, as weak high pressure moves in and keeps the area dry and mostly clear.
608 PM MST Fri Jan 13 2017 Latest satellite and upper air analysis indicates the closed low just off the west coast of California near the Mexican border. Downstream from the closed low the flow as zonal. There will be some WAA occurring tonight ahead of the upcoming ice storm, so lows will be a few degrees warmer than last night. Expect freezing rain and wintry mix to begin early to mid-afternoon for areas south of the the KS/NE border with the best chances south of a Goodland to Hill City line. As we go through the overnight, freezing rain and sleet chances spread northward and encompass our entire CWA.
315 PM MST Fri Jan 13 2017 A low pressure system currently situated off the southern California coast continues to pump moisture across the region in a diffluent southwest flow across our CWA. Models are in fairly good agreement showing snowfall picking up in intensity this evening through late Saturday afternoon across the southern and central mountains, with favorable orographics and dynamics in play as the low makes its track inland across northern Mexico. Given the above factors in spite of the current lull, elected to keep the highlites for the southern and central Colorado mountains going until the current expiration time of 5 pm MST Saturday and also decided to extend the Winter Storm Warning for the La Sals and Abajos through this timeframe as well.
The better news is warm air advection has developed and will cause warmer temperatures to push into the forecast region.
With elevated warm air above the surface on the order of 4- 7C, precipitation will all melt prior to reaching the subfreezing surface as it descends through the warm layer.
which should keep temps warmer than past several nights. Temps should be warmer than past several nights. Quiet weather can be expected through the weekend as the area will be situated under somewhat of a split flow aloft with ridging over the West and an upper low over the Desert Southwest.
945 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2017 High pressure will build in from the west tonight and Saturday.
707 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2017 A broad area of high pressure over the central Great Lakes will slide steadily toward the New England states tonight. Downstream ridge amplification over the Great Lakes and energy pivoting across central Canada will tighten the resident mass gradient and support a stationary upper jet well into the weekend.
Upper low closed off the so Cal coast is far enough south that the northern branch of the jet stream over southern Canada is being the dominant factor for our area. Broad upper trough is moving through eastern Canada with a dirty upper ridge pushing into western Canada.
Even warmer temps expected on Saturday as Pacific air continues to filter into the region.
01 UTC surface analysis shows high pressure in place across the Southeastern US. Ridging continues to build in aloft, and the PWAT for this evening's 00z launch is very close to normal for this time of year at 0.
Ongoing widespread precip across far E OK and W AR has largely remained south of the freezing line with much more scattered light freezing rain reported further north. Regarding precip type the freezing line has been adjusted slightly per observational trends which does introduce fzra a bit further southward overnight and the freezing rain advisory was adjusted accordingly. Temps look to remain just below freezing in this zone which may slightly limit accumulation potential and updated amounts remain below warning criteria thus no further expansion of the ice storm warning. Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST Saturday for OKZ058- 060>062-064>067.
Coastal trough expected to meander over the waters through much of the weekend with prevailing ENE winds and speeds 10-15 kts.
A cold front across Northern Mississippi and Tennessee will continue to sink slowly southward and move into northwest Alabama this evening. With clear skies and light winds under the low level ridge axis, surface temperatures will fall quickly this evening and the air mass will become saturated near the surface. The weather conditions over the weekend should be similar to today as the upper ridge over the southeast states remains in place.
409 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017 Tonight through Saturday, An anomalously warm weather pattern for the ArkLaMiss will continue into the weekend as a strong 590 DM subtropical ridge remains centered over the northeast Gulf of Mexico. These uncertainties are reflected by a variety of solutions in the high- res near term guidance, and after coordination with surrounding offices, have decided to hold off on a dense fog advisory. Slightly cooler but still above normal temperatures associated with shallow cooler air over the upper Delta region can be expected.
High pressure remains in control with light winds.
/28/ Tonight through Saturday, An anomalously warm weather pattern for the ArkLaMiss will continue into the weekend as a strong 590 DM subtropical ridge remains centered over the northeast Gulf of Mexico. These uncertainties are reflected by a variety of solutions in the high- res near term guidance, and after coordination with surrounding offices, have decided to hold off on a dense fog advisory. Slightly cooler but still above normal temperatures associated with shallow cooler air over the upper Delta region can be expected.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 52 68 51 67 / 20 20 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 65 51 60 / 20 30 40 30 Oak Ridge, TN 51 64 51 58 / 20 30 40 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 60 47 54 / 30 50 50 40.
Quite a baroclinic zone in place locally with temperatures approaching 80 degrees in Jasper Alabama with temperatures in the lower 50s in Savannah in Tennessee. Some model discrepancies in this area (as one would expect) and will trend a bit further north than the HRRR and closer to the superblend (which is in the line with the high res NAM/WRF). The aforementioned cold front will remain positioned just to the north on Saturday.
The primary concern remains the winter storm which will impact Manual 12z upper-air analysis and early afternoon water vapor imagery indicate a mid to upper-level cyclone off the southern CA coast with a downstream zone of confluent mid-level flow observed from the upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes. The confluent flow aloft was maintaining the presence of an anticyclone at the surface over MN/WI with the primary low-level baroclinic zone situated from southwest TX through the lower MS Valley as of 18z.
504 PM MST Fri Jan 13 2017 A low pressure system currently situated off the southern California coast continues to pump moisture across the region in a diffluent southwest flow across our CWA. Models are in fairly good agreement showing snowfall picking up in intensity this evening through late Saturday afternoon across the southern and central mountains, with favorable orographics and dynamics in play as the low makes its track inland across northern Mexico. Given the above factors in spite of the current lull, elected to keep the highlites for the southern and central Colorado mountains going until the current expiration time of 5 pm MST Saturday and also decided to extend the Winter Storm Warning for the La Sals and Abajos through this timeframe as well.
A massive ridge continues to hold off inclement winter weather across most of the nation. The dividing line between a much cooler airmass and a very pleasant mild early Spring-like airmass is in position along the Cumberland Plateau northeast into the Central Appalachians.
High pressure will remain well to the northeast continuing the east to northeast flow bringing areas of slightly deeper low level moisture westward from the Atlantic Ocean. On Saturday another area of moisture will again move into Florida with the highest amounts across northern portions of the peninsula.
5miles in light snow and we expect this to continue this evening before winds veer some and slightly warmer air arrives. The better news is warm air advection has developed and will cause warmer temperatures to push into the forecast region.
Quiet weather expected through the weekend, with cold temperatures and a slight potential for freezing fog tonight and Saturday night. Low pressure over Southern CA is keeping stratus over the area which may keep us from developing fog tonight. If we clear out quicker than expected, then we may see some freezing fog develop in the colder valleys.
A moisture laden upper level low pressure system will track northeastward across southern and eastern New Mexico from the Baja Peninsula this weekend.
High pressure expanding across Lake Ontario will bring an end to the light lake effect activity across northern NY. Clouds will break up overnight, and with a dense polar air mass in place, temperatures will fall into the lower teens in many spots early Saturday morning. High pressure will rebuild Saturday night, yielding another quiet and cold night.
619 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017 Will keep the dry forecast going for north central Nebraska as a ridge continues to build across the western Plains. Will see slightly cooler temperatures across the Pine Ridge region where temperatures could drop into the single digits. A closed upper low will cross just south of Arizona Saturday night as an upper ridge extends from the southeastern U.
727 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016 Canadian high pressure will build over the area through Thursday.
955 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016 High pressure will continue to extend over Eastern North Carolina today and tonight.
Issued by National Weather Service Gray ME 1109 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016 Low pressure east of Nova Scotia will continue moving east and high pressure will build south from northern Quebec tonight and Thursday.
Behind this trough, a very weak front will move into our northern counties by this evening.