Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
946 PM CDT Sun Mar 12 2017 An upper-level disturbance and associated cold front will move southeast across Oklahoma and north Texas overnight. A cold front will accompany the disturbance and bring increasing surface winds early Monday morning. Some frost and subfreezing temperatures will likely occur with the coldest readings in northern Oklahoma.
/issued 400 PM CDT Sun Mar 12 2017/ Clouds have eroded across all but our extreme western counties in east Texas south of I-20 with temperatures running several degrees cooler by comparison to areas in full sunshine. Expect further erosion of clouds over our far western zones over the next few hours with mostly clear conditions initially this evening before clouds gradually return overnight as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
/issued 946 PM CDT Sun Mar 12 2017/ An upper-level disturbance and associated cold front will move southeast across Oklahoma and north Texas overnight. A cold front will accompany the disturbance and bring increasing surface winds early Monday morning. Some frost and subfreezing temperatures will likely occur with the coldest readings in northern Oklahoma.
A cold front will usher in breezy conditions until late Monday afternoon. /issued 347 PM CDT Sun Mar 12 2017/ After today's relatively chilly March day, another cold front will make its way through the region this evening and through the early morning hours on Monday. A high amplitude ridge is forecast to develop across the southwest U. and move east toward the High Plains as a long wave trough across the eastern 1/2 of the country lifts east.
850 PM PDT Sun Mar 12 2017 More widespread rain and warmer temperatures are in the forecast for Monday. Evening update: a large area of middle to high clouds continue to spill over the ridge in advance of the next wave of steadier precipitation. Cote' 00Z TAFS: A weak waves overtops a ridge of high pressure, bringing some middle to high cloud tonight and maybe a few showers over northeastern WA/north ID.
Modest low level moist advection has also been taking place with dewpoints rising into the low to middle 30s in most places. Short term models are consistently generating precipitation across central and parts of southwest Kansas this evening as an associated cold front pushes through the area. Models indicate low level cold advection continuing through the night behind the cold front. On Monday, the nose of high pressure and cold air slides eastward. North winds will be gusty for a time on Monday morning but should diminish by afternoon as the high pressure ridge retreats. The first half of the upcoming week will see strong northwesterly flow aloft continuing over the central Plains between an upper ridge over the northern Rockies and a deep trough over the eastern CONUS.
Warm dry high pressure will slowly cross the Great Basin through midweek.
High Rain Chances Mon and Mon Night, then Drier and much Cooler Mid-Late Week. This will cause the weak frontal boundary to stall and gradually wash out, but the models show an inverted coastal trough forming again late tonight, with east/southeast winds over the waters and light north/northeast winds inland. However, the NAM doesn't show much of an inverted trough and generates a little more precip close to the coast. Little change in min temps, around 60 to the lower 60s. On Mon, a low pressure center approaching from the Gulf of Mexico will veer winds around to southerly and they may increase late in the day to 15-20 knots.
614 PM MDT Sun Mar 12 2017 A strong cold front blasted across the CWA this afternoon, and has already pushed into central Nebraska per observed surface wind and MSAS pressure tendencies.
654 PM CDT Sun Mar 12 2017 Main focus remains on potential for wintry weather in north central Missouri and several consecutive days of freezing low temperatures. This low pressure will track to northeast Missouri by sunrise Monday. This track will result in temperature profiles less favorable for snowfall until the associated cold front passes through and the atmosphere cools. Scattered showers are expected in advance of a cold front within the warm sector for most areas, beginning by the early/mid evening hours. For areas of far north central into northeast Missouri, a sufficient vertical temperature profile for snow is more probable as the low arrives/moves through.
As daytime heating ensues again on Tuesday and the low level airmass moistens further. an upper level low pressure system over the southwest United States will move slowly eastward towards the Mid South.
Latest solutions agree that an outflow infused cold front will press southward with good enough thunder chances to add a 30 percent probability for tomorrow evening for each location.
These storms will expand southward over the early evening hours as the cold front approaches the region from the west. Storms will move out of the area around midnight as the cold front pushes across Nebraska and the Northern Plains. High temperatures will top out in the low 70s on Tuesday.
1050 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2016 Upper low spinning over Nrn MT attm and will move ewd into Ern ND by the end of this period. Initial cold front pushed south thru our nrn zones earlier today with gusty north wind. Otherwise, dry with highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s lower elevations and 40s to mid 50s in the high country.
708 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 High pressure over the Midwest will move slowly east providing dry conditions across our area through Tuesday night.
Strong high pressure aloft along the west coast will shift east into the Great Basin midweek. This high pressure will strengthen across region late in the week.
Visible satellite imagery shows cumulus clouds have pretty much dissipated, and weak upper ridging and subsidence aloft should keep the CWA dry this evening.
HSV already reached 93 earlier today and probably won't get much warmer than that. In addition to daytime heating, a weak disturbance moving through with isentropic lift could be enough to offset the weak high pressure that will be in place. The highest chances for convection would be in NW AL. Tuesday night starts out with an upper low over North Dakota with a cold front sweeping south through the Midwest.
A stronger southerly flow has returned to the High Plains and near surface moisture is improving somewhat. Most models develop convection during the afternoon over the high terrain of West Texas. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to form by at least Tuesday afternoon as a cold front moves slowly across northern Oklahoma.
This will slowly drag a cold front toward the region by the end of the week into the weekend.
Tuesday night upper low scoots by to the north resulting in a few clouds across the highway 14 corridor, but otherwise expect ok radiative conditions.
Large 500mb trough continues to churn over the southern west coast. A stronger southerly flow has returned to the High Plains and near surface moisture is improving somewhat. Most models develop convection during the afternoon over the high terrain of West Texas. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to form by at least Tuesday afternoon as a cold front moves slowly across northern Oklahoma.
This qpf ahead of upper level trof along the KS/MO and OK/AR border that weakens as it ejects northeast. Similar MET/MAV lows in the low to mid 60s looks good again tonight.
Have raised pops over the east overnight as models were together in dropping the upper low toward Baker and wrapping strong energy around it into eastern Montana. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into evening as the low pressure continues to move across the area. Overnight in the higher terrain there could be some snowfall, which could produce some issues over the Beartooth Pass. Some lingering showers will continues on the backside of the low during the day tomorrow. On top of this temperatures will remain cool across the area, with highs in the low to mid 60s.
Shear is rather weak and the storms have had a history of becoming outflow dominated shortly after their maturation so any severe threat is expected to be on the low side with any stronger storm that may develop. With a 700mb ridge just off toward the east of the area, storms will generally follow the south-to-north movement they've been on but flow at this level is rather weak so they'll not only be slow to move, but potentially allow themselves to become latched onto localized boundaries that may linger in the area. For tomorrow, chances for storms to become strong to perhaps severe look better given the incoming upper-level trough axis swinging through, assisting with keeping a frontal boundary moving along.
Storms now beginning to develop across western and central portions of the state in association with a cold front. The low pressure system will swing northward late tonight with some precipitation on the back side of it possibly affecting the northwestern CWA Tuesday afternoon.
While this activity could make it east into our CWA, the current atmosphere still has over 100 J/KG of CIN and dewpoints in the low 60s, which is about 10 degrees less than in previous days.
Have VCTS at all terminals by 18Z Tuesday, but showers and thunderstorms coverage should increase Tuesday evening as an upper level low approaches. /issued 340 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/ (Tonight and Tuesday) An upper level low is centered across Arizona, putting West Central Texas in southwest flow aloft.
/issued 340 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/ (Tonight and Tuesday) An upper level low is centered across Arizona, putting West Central Texas in southwest flow aloft.
The overall pattern remains unsettle to our West and the nocturnal boundary machine will linger as the next upper low is over AZ and only moving East very slowly.
1034 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 High pressure will be centered over the region through Tuesday, with dry conditions and warm temperatures.
Though continuing to monitor the potential for funnel clouds/ brief touchdowns along the receding warm front. Lows tonight will be quite mild and in the mid 60s again east of the boundary with slightly cooler readings over the northwest/north as precipitation cools the boundary layer. steep low-level lapse rates and some directional shear in the low and mid levels.
A warming trend is forecast through late week as high pressure builds along the California coast. Inland temperatures will warm into the 80s to 90s by mid to late week while coastal locations remain cooler. Upper level high over the area brought very warm temperatures to the inland areas today. Highs today in the interior were 8 to 12 degrees warmer than yesterday. The high will shift slowly eastward during the week. Temperatures through the end of the week will be a few degrees warmer in all areas as 850 mb temperatures continue to warm. The medium range models show the possibility of a closed mid/upper level low approaching and moving across the region late in the upcoming weekend.
Main driver for thunderstorms later tonight and Tuesday is a short wave diving into northern Montana this afternoon and associated cold front that will swing through our warning area late tonight and Tuesday. Mixed- layer CAPE from RAP analysis indicated 3000 j/kg bullseye in far northwest Missouri with CAPE ridge noted along middle Missouri River valley region. Attention then turns to storms along approaching cold front.
a large area of hot High pressure exists over the Desert Southwest and Four Corners. The Base of a large trough resides over central Montana and then runs north through Alberta and the Northwest Territories. A very weak ridge has formed over the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia in response. Water vapor imagery suggest that the center of the upper level trough should move through sometime tonight. center of the trough should pass through the CWA to the east.
There is a weak upper trof now over the midwest that will continue to move east overnight. However with weak ridging/subsidence across the TN valley, not expecting any pcpn overnight. HSV already reached 93 earlier today and probably won't get much warmer than that. In addition to daytime heating, a weak disturbance moving through with isentropic lift could be enough to offset the weak high pressure that will be in place. The highest chances for convection would be in NW AL. Tuesday night starts out with an upper low over North Dakota with a cold front sweeping south through the Midwest.
Upper level ridging will continue to build in through Tuesday and then shift eastward Tuesday night. Dewpoints will rise this evening back into the lower 60s.
917 PM PDT MON MAY 30 2016 Upper level ridging will move slowly east across western Washington tonight and Tuesday bringing mainly clear skies and a short warming trend.
A warming trend is forecast through late week as high pressure builds along the California coast. Inland temperatures will warm into the 80s to 90s by mid to late week while coastal locations remain cooler. Building high pressure over the region has resulted in warming temperatures aloft and a robust warm-up over inland areas so far this afternoon. The region-wide warming trend will then persist through late week as the mid/upper level ridge aloft strengthens and 850MB temperatures increase. This will keep conditions cooler near the coast while inland areas warm into the 80s and lower 90s by mid/late week.
Wrap-around moisture associated with the low pressure system over the Montana/Saskatchewan border is still a threat across the northeastern zones later tonight. An upper level low pressure system is moving into Eastern Montana and most precipitation remaining over Central and Southwest Montana is across the northern and northeastern portions of the region.
856 PM PDT MON MAY 30 2016 Very warm weather expected this week as high pressure strengthens. Temperatures have been running 5 to 10 degrees warmer than last night this evening. Temperatures will eventually cool off into the low to mid 60s by morning. Strong high pressure over the region with little to no delta influence will continue warming temperatures for Tuesday.
1145 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016 Primary concerns through Tuesday include timing, coverage, and strength of thunderstorms as a slow moving Pacific trough moves across the Northern Plains and into the Upper MS River Valley. The warm front is well defined by developing cumulus this afternoon and stretches across southwest MN into central IA. Attention then turns to Tuesday as the low and surface cold front march slowly eastward across MN.
708 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016 Temperatures warmed into the low 80s for most locations across the northland today. East to northeast winds will increase overnight into Tuesday across Northeast MN and western Lake superior as an area of low pressure advances from the dakotas. The gusty onshore flow will keeping temperatures much cooler near lake superior tomorrow. Tuesday will also bring cooler temperatures. An upper level low pressure system will continue to affect the Northland early in the period. A strong cold front will push eastward across the region Tuesday Night, bringing numerous thunderstorms to the eastern portion of the CWA during the evening. A dry slot will then work into the western portion of the CWA, with cooler air pushing in as low pressure moves along the International Border region.
Temperatures will be noticeably cooler on Tuesday with northerly flow resulting in highs around 70.
716 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 A weak cold front will push east of Pennsylvania tonight. A ridge of high pressure will build east into the region for midweek. A slow moving cold front will likely push into the region from the Great Lakes by late in the week. Previous: Weak cold front pushing into central PA at mid afternoon, providing sufficient moisture convergence and llvl lift to overcome weak CIN and maintain a line of isolated to scattered convection. Latest hi res cams track broken line of convection out of the Central Mountains and Laurel Highlands by 21z, and the Lower Susq River Valley by 04z late this evening. Lows will range from near 50F northwest to the lower 60s southeast. Slowly rising heights aloft and sfc ridging will provide a mostly sunny and warm day to PA on Tuesday.
Latest composite radar indicating scattered showers mainly over portions of the Lowcountry. Latest SPC HRRR continues to show little convection during the overnight period so have lowered pops into the low chance category primarily from CAE eastward. Weak upper troughing is also indicated.
1204 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 A weak cold front will push east of Pennsylvania tonight. A ridge of high pressure will build east into the region for midweek. A slow moving cold front will likely push into the region from the Great Lakes by late in the week. Previous: Weak cold front pushing into central PA at mid afternoon, providing sufficient moisture convergence and llvl lift to overcome weak CIN and maintain a line of isolated to scattered convection. Latest hi res cams track broken line of convection out of the Central Mountains and Laurel Highlands by 21z, and the Lower Susq River Valley by 04z late this evening. Lows will range from near 50F northwest to the lower 60s southeast. Slowly rising heights aloft and sfc ridging will provide a mostly sunny and warm day to PA on Tuesday.
Temperatures are in the lower 80s. In the low levels of the atmosphere, the western extent of an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will be located near the east coast of Florida overnight. In the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere, a trough of low pressure will be centered over the Florida peninsula tonight.
420 PM PDT MON MAY 30 2016 High pressure will build over the Inland Northwest Tuesday bringing warm and dry weather.
High pressure still in place over the area. Rain chances and coverage goes up the latter half of the week and into the weekend as a cold front approaches the area.
1024 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2016 Cold front pushing southeast across southeast Wyoming and northwest NE attm. Expect this activity to move out of the area late this afternoon and evening but some showers still possible around the area overnight as a cold front moves by. Continued mild Tuesday under dry northwesterly flow around an upper low that will be over North Dakota.
Weak mid level ridging and high pressure at the surface will keep much of the area dry through Tuesday. will develop into an upper level low as it shifts east into the northern Plains through mid week. As the trough south of this low approaches, a moistening southwesterly flow will set up across the forecast area.
1042 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 Upper level ridge rebuilds for mid week.
639 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016 00Z TAF Cycle An upper trough will move across the Panhandles tonight which could allow for some isolated convection to push east out of the southern Rockies and across the northern and western Panhandles through about 03Z to 06Z Tuesday.
626 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016 Primary concerns through Tuesday include timing, coverage, and strength of thunderstorms as a slow moving Pacific trough moves across the Northern Plains and into the Upper MS River Valley. The warm front is well defined by developing cumulus this afternoon and stretches across southwest MN into central IA. Attention then turns to Tuesday as the low and surface cold front march slowly eastward across MN.
948 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2016 Cold front approaching Cheyenne and on track to move through Denver around midnight. a weak cold front is expected to move across the area with northerly winds and low clouds expected behind it. temperatures will remain cooler due to low clouds. The cooler airmas will be more stable. An upper level trough axis is supposed to be pushing eastward across the CWA Tuesday night.
Breezy, cooler weather today will become warmer and less breezy Tuesday as an upper ridge, currently along the coast, comes inland.
1042 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 A cold front moving east of Vermont late this evening is ushering in a cooler and drier air mass, along with mostly clear skies.
819 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 As a cold front pushes across the North Country isolated showers will remain possible for southern and central Vermont this afternoon and early evening. Cooler temperatures will be felt behind the front with lows tonight dropping into the mid to upper 50s tonight and near normal tomorrow evening.
Otherwise, surface-based strong-severe storms should continue to develop along the cold front/lee trough boundaries over the central high plains through late afternoon into this evening, given low- level convergence, 2000 MLCAPE and 25-30 knots deep-layer shear. ), are progged along the nose of the low-level jet overnight, which will support a few storms with strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall rates.
1246 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 High pressure over the Midwest will move slowly east providing dry conditions across our area through Tuesday night.
731 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 As a cold front pushes across the North Country isolated showers will remain possible for southern and central Vermont this afternoon and early evening. Cooler temperatures will be felt behind the front with lows tonight dropping into the mid to upper 50s tonight and near normal tomorrow evening.
Warm temperatures have escalated melting of the high- elevation snow-pack, leading to a substantial rise in some rivers and creeks.
Low temperatures should be a little warmer than the previous night due to increased cloud cover and a return to low level southerly winds. GKS Storm chances will be on the increase Tuesday as cold front moves into northwestern MO by midday. For now, they will be a bit above normal in the low to mid 80s.
1156 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 SE Michigan airspace will remain under the influence of a dry and stable high pressure system through this TAF period. Eastward movement of the high will bring a wind shift from west-northwest this evening to northeast by the morning period.
502 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2016 Passing trough to the north and closed low in Arizona will become out of phase this evening as the closed low drops to the south and the northern trough gets pushed to the southeast by an upper level jet diving southeast across Wyoming. Expecting a downturn in activity on Tuesday though a few showers and thunderstorms will still develop over the higher terrain.
developing along sea breeze and outflow boundaries as well as general low level trough extending SW from the remnants of Bonnie.
Expect this activity to move out of the area late this afternoon and evening but some showers still possible around the area overnight as a cold front moves by. Continued mild Tuesday under dry northwesterly flow around an upper low that will be over North Dakota.
A weak H5 s/w trough is prog to advect east across the region again tonight which may lead to additional convective development overnight along the Rio Grande/W Brush Country. combination of minor mid level s/w troughs and an extremely unstable atmosphere /SBCAPEs prog to be around 4500 j/kg during the midday and afternoon hrs/ should allow for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop across primarily inland locations. Focus then turns to Tuesday night when another MCS may develop along the Rio Grande and shift east overnight as a more potent s/w trough advects east /with H25 difluence also increasing/.
There is fairly decent model agreement with the associated cold front advancing into north central Kansas early Tuesday morning, with scattered showers and thunderstorms likely developing along and behind the front. As a result, models show increasing precipitation chances across north central Kansas after midnight with the scattered storms gradually spreading eastward across the CWA as the cold front slowly advances to the east. As for temperatures, increasing cloud cover overnight should keep low temperatures in the lower 60s with Tuesday high temperatures a bit cooler in the mid/upper 70s.
Weak surface ridging is present today across much of Alabama on the dry side for the most part of what is left of Bonnie with the exception of the southern part of the state and into the Florida panhandle in associated with a surface boundary. For Tuesday, looking for the ridging to have an even better hold on the pattern as the low pressure associated with Bonnie deteriorates further.