Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
233 AM CST Sun Feb 6 2022 We may only realize a narrow zone of decoupled near surface flow early this morning ahead of the surface trof/weak cold front, so freezing fog potential is a bit more conditional across south central and southeast Kansas. Otherwise, there may be a period of cloudiness this afternoon from north central into eastern Kansas associated with some moisture evident in the 850-700mb layer within the trof aloft as it moves southeastward across the area.
Conditions appear favorable for brief development of patchy freezing fog near lakes and in other fog- prone valley locations between 10-14Z. With the change to more southerly flow, temperatures will make the climb back into the low 50s on Sunday as mostly sunny skies continue.
A weak front associated with a passing trough will cross the area today, bringing a shift to northerly winds behind it but little appreciable temperature change.
108 AM EST Sun Feb 6 2022 High pressure will start the day overhead, but start to slide eastward through the day. High pressure is building into central Pa overnight, providing mainly clear skies and a calm wind. Farther south, have stuck close to guidance across the snow-less Lower Susq Valley, where lows in the lower teens are expected. Upper level ridging should ensure fair weather Sunday, with just a bit of mid level alto cu drifting overhead per model RH profiles. Ridging over the area should ensure fair and cold conditions Sunday night, although not as cold as tonight.
WV imagery indicates an upper level trough of low pressure dropping southeast through the Northern High Plains. Near the surface, a trough of low pressure is shifting slowly east across western Kansas. Winds will trend northwest and increase to 10-15 mph after midnight, as a weak dry cold front makes progress across SW KS. An associated positively tilted trough will swing across the plains through the day, accompanied by modest cold air advection.
That combination of ridging and clear skies has resulted in chilly temps, with most areas already a few degrees below normal lows and likely to drop a few more degrees by daybreak. Given plenty of sunshine and favorable mixing, trends in 925mb temps support afternoon highs 12-15 degrees warmer than Saturday, which will only come up slightly below climo after the recent unseasonable chill. The global models agree that the Lower Ohio Valley will sit under northwest flow aloft.
Deep layered moisture is on the increase with the approaching cold front. However, somewhat stable conditions remain in place with neutral or slight CIN through the lower levels of the column. A cold front is stalling northwest of the Keys tonight and will keep a loose pressure gradient across Keys waters. Due to high dew point temperatures and possibly some cooler air to arrive from South Florida, there is the potential for sea fog and low stratus formation.
1255 AM EST Sun Feb 6 2022 High pressure will continue to build into the region for the remainder of the weekend.
303 AM EST Sun Feb 6 2022 High pressure extends from New England to the Mid Atlantic. An area of low pressure was developing along the Florida East Coast.
Due to the cloud cover, temperatures are expected to be cool with Highs in the low to mid 50s and Lows tonight will be in the 40s.
Our region will remain in dry westerly flow aloft ahead of this trough thru tonight. At the surface, the center of the cold anticyclone was over the Northeast, with a ridge axis extending southwest clear down to the TX Gulf Coast. Low pressure was centered over the Dakotas ahead of the digging trough. Short term guidance has trended warmer for overnight lows and have followed suit. Lacy (Tomorrow through Saturday) Quiet and warmer weather will prevail this upcoming week. (06Z TAFS) VFR conditions should prevail through the period with some mid to high clouds moving in tomorrow afternoon behind a weak boundary and associated mid level trough.
Winds will gradually shift to the northwest through early morning as a cold front moves into the area, then continue to veer to the northeast. (This afternoon through Sunday night) Upper levels have zonal flow over TX and NM today with a trough coming down over the Northern Rockies. This trough will move down across CO tonight and through NM Sunday as a ridge spins over the West Coast. A weak front will blow into the area early Sunday but temperatures are expected to end up a few degrees warmer than today so should be more of just a wind shift to the north.
High pressure keeps us dry and clear tonight. High pressure continues tonight and Sunday with few clouds and light winds, so VFR throughout the forecast period.
This will result in increasing southwesterly flow today, supporting warmer temperatures approaching early-February climo.
At the surface, winds continued to bring in warmer air into the area this morning. North of the area, a cold front was pushing south towards the area. This cold front will drive the short term weather across the area. Very slight chance for drizzle or freezing drizzle with fropa later this afternoon. Temperatures at or above freezing expected today, with a potential for a bust on the low end. Discussion: Another clipper with cold front is expected to affect the region today. A cold front is expected to move through the area late in the afternoon.
/issued 952 PM CST Sat Feb 5 2022/ A cold night in store acrs the nw gulf region with temps again below freezing although winds remain light for the most part.
Calm winds should allow early AM lows to drop below 20 for most of the Quad State with the lowest values tending to be in northwestern portions that have higher snow depth. A long-wave ridge is set up on the Pacific coast.
With clear skies, calm winds, and low dewpoint depressions, cannot rule out a bit of patchy freezing fog in a few spots but this appears unlikely. Southwest winds will increase in the low and mid levels today, so with full sunshine expecting temperatures to be much warmer than Saturday with highs in the mid 40s to low 50s.
1041 PM MST Sat Feb 5 2022 The short term period begins with an upper level trough that has swung winds across the northern portion of the area to the NW made them quite breezy as a few sites have gusted to 30 knots. Those outside the remaining snowpack have warmed into the 50s (Red Willow and Norton counties may make a run at the lower 60s). Sunday, a back door cold front associated with a low over the northern Great Lakes moves through the area early Sunday. This will result in cooler temperatures again returning to the area as high temperatures are expected to be about 10-15 degrees cooler than today.
Today: A breezy afternoon is expected as southwest return flow allows temperatures to warm into the lower 40s. Some sunshine will accompany the above freezing temperatures through the afternoon.
Discussion Temperatures this morning are a good 10-20 degrees warmer than yesterday morning, thanks to the southwesterly flow and the increased wind speeds. We won't see this kind of trend continue for our afternoon high temperatures though, because a cold front is scheduled to move through the area around mid-day.
Temperatures tonight should once again drop into the lower 20s at most locations across our forecast area. There has been no change in the air mass today and, with high pressure blanketing the region, radiational cooling should be efficient. Meanwhile, a period of westerly flow aloft will become re-established across the Lower Mississippi Valley ahead of a positively tilted longwave trough dropping through the Rockies and into the Great Plains. Temperatures will quickly fall this evening as the boundary layer decouples with low temperatures bottoming out in the low 20s to upper teens by daybreak Sunday morning. This will yield a rather large diurnal temperature curve as cold morning temperatures rebound into the low to upper 50s during the day.
At lower elevations, a cold front will move across northeast CO after midnight, with mainly NNW low level flow. For tonight, northwesterly winds aloft will transition to more of a northerly flow by Sunday morning ahead of a building ridge over the western U. The models show weak mid/upper level QG subsidence over the region through the day on Sunday behind a weak trough axis that will slide south across Colorado this evening. In the mountains, the best orographic component will be late this afternoon and evening with decent northwest winds at ridgetop. Across the plains, a weak cold front will push into Denver around midnight, then a secondary front moves in Denver by 10 am Sunday morning. Temperatures will be 8-10 degrees cooler than today's highs.
1238 AM EST Sun Feb 6 2022 High pressure will cross the region late tonight through early Sunday, then exit across the Maritimes Sunday night.
A dry northwest flow aloft will persist through Sunday as an upper ridge remains off the coast.
Strong high pressure sitting over the Eastern Pacific and west coast will nose its way into the Northern Rockies resulting in a mix of sun and clouds with above normal temperatures.
102 AM EST Sun Feb 6 2022 High pressure will build into the state tonight and Sunday. High pressure is building into central Pa overnight, providing mainly clear skies and a calm wind. Further south, have stuck close to guidance across the snow-less Lower Susq Valley, where lows in the lower teens are expected. Upper level ridging should ensure fair weather Sunday, with just a bit of mid level alto cu drifting overhead per model RH profiles. Ridging over the area should ensure fair and cold conditions Sunday night, although not as cold as tonight.
327 AM EST Sun Feb 6 2022 After a cold start to this Sunday morning, a southerly breeze and sunshine will aid in pushing air temperatures back up to around the freezing mark.
Modest winds will gradually turn northwesterly overnight in advance of an approaching cold front. A cold front will enter the northwestern zones a bit before dawn Sunday and then move quickly southward with north winds becoming breezy by late morning. However, the air mass behind the front is really no cooler than the pre-frontal air mass, and the result will be high temperatures Sunday very near those of this afternoon, or 5-10 degrees cooler than average for the date. A persistent northwesterly flow regime aloft will encompass the region for most of the upcoming week, as the CWA remains between stout ridging over the eastern Pacific Ocean and broadly cyclonic flow across the eastern two-thirds of the U.
1126 PM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 High pressure will build into the state tonight and Sunday. High pressure is building into central Pa overnight, providing mainly clear skies and a calm wind. Further south, have stuck close to guidance across the snow-less Lower Susq Valley, where lows in the lower teens are expected. Upper level ridging should ensure fair weather Sunday, with just a bit of mid level alto cu drifting overhead per model RH profiles. Ridging over the area should ensure fair and cold conditions Sunday night, although not as cold as tonight.
309 AM EST Sun Feb 6 2022 High pressure brings a dry finish to the weekend, with a milder afternoon today.
1011 PM MST Sat Feb 5 2022 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over far eastern ND, with warm front well east of the region and nearly stationary arctic boundary lying to the north of the area. Upper level analysis shows large scale trough over the eastern half of the US, with a ridge along the west coast. Wind direction and froude values generally support the most snowfall potential over the higher elevations of the northwestern Black Hills, O'Neill Pass to Cheyenne Crossing to near Terry Peak, where a few inches of snowfall is looking likely.
1222 AM EST Sun Feb 6 2022 High pressure brings a dry finish to the weekend, with a milder afternoon on Sunday.
1118 PM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 High pressure will build into the state tonight and Sunday. High pressure is building into central Pa overnight, providing mainly clear skies and a calm wind. Further south, have stuck close to guidance across the snow-less Lower Susq Valley, where lows in the lower teens are expected. Upper level ridging should ensure fair weather Sunday, with just a bit of mid level alto cu drifting overhead per model RH profiles. Ridging over the area should ensure fair and cold conditions Sunday night, although not as cold as tonight.
Southwesterly flow will increase tonight as a warm front lifts north through the area within increased pressure gradient between exiting high pressure to the east and an approaching clipper low pressure system which will reach Lake Superior tonight.
12Z GFS/Euro/GEM all have some very light QPF with a cold front sweeping through the region Wed. VFR through the valid TAF period as dry high pressure maintains clear skies and unrestricted vis.
913 PM PST Sat Feb 5 2022 High pressure will build over the region this weekend producing dry weather and areas of low clouds and fog.
Rather quiet across the area today with mainly zonal flow aloft as we sit between an approaching trof from the northwest and a departed trof to our east. Tomorrow the next trof aloft comes through the area during the day. At the sfc we can expect breezy, northwest winds at around 15-20 mph with higher gusts, as well as cooler temps in the 40s and increased cloud cover. While this trof looks to be a dry one for us, a couple models do hint at some QPF around the region, which could result in a few flurries, though none are in the forecast at this time. Behind this trof we briefly enter northerly flow aloft with slight ridging passing over which then turns us to more northwesterly flow.
(Today) Positively tilted long wave trough will swing through the area today with a weak frontal boundary moving through during the afternoon. Boundary will have little impact on temperatures and we will likely see slightly warmer conditions compared to yesterday. Deeper snow cover, mainly across northwest Arkansas, will keep temps a few degrees cooler than otherwise.
Temperatures are dropping quickly behind the cold front, with northwest winds becoming quite gusty as well. Second clipper system to bring another round of snow tonight, followed by cooler and breezy conditions Sunday. This could bring for some freezing drizzle potential, although sinking air behind the cold front limits confidence in this potential. Cooler temperatures will be found behind the mentioned cold front with highs only in the single digits in the northeast to the still mild upper 30s southwest.
(Today and tonight) An upper trough will move from the northern Plains into the Midwest today, and become more elongated as its southern portion shifts south across West Texas tonight. Associated cold front will be weak for our area, with mainly just a wind shift. Ahead of this front, weak downsloping southwest to west winds and sunny skies will allow for warmer temperatures compared to yesterday. Highs are expected to be in the lower to mid 50s across the southern half of our area, with the warmest readings along the I-10 corridor. With the proximity of the mid/upper level trough may have a few patchy clouds tonight. (Sunday night through next Saturday) Upper trough over the east coast will continue through much of the week, with northwest flow across much of the Southern Plains.
952 PM CST Sat Feb 5 2022 A cold night in store acrs the nw gulf region with temps again below freezing although winds remain light for the most part.
1042 PM CST Sat Feb 5 2022 For the 06Z TAFs, the cold front has moved through KDHT and KGUY and will move through KAMA at the beginning of this forecast cycle. /Issued 548 PM CST Sat Feb 5 2022/ For the 00Z TAFs, a cold front will move across the terminal sites tonight with north winds in its wake. An upper closed low off the coast of Baja Cali will make it's way east later tonight with the progression of an upper trough digging across the Rockies today. Breezy winds will diminish tomorrow afternoon as the upper level positively tilted trough continues to swing east, absorbing the closed low coming across northwest Mexico.
A slightly colder air mass and increased cloud cover will keep the higher elevations cooler than yesterday. This mixing could lead to slightly warmer temperatures in the lower desert valleys. Elsewhere skies clear out by sunset allowing for lows similar to this morning or perhaps a touch cooler. Tomorrow the expansive ridge over the West Coast begins to nose into our region. Warm advection will be felt across the entire forecast area in response to the ridge.
A upper trough will swing down across New Mexico today with a weak cold front pushing through the region this morning.
Tonight: Downslope flow will build back into the forecast area as the upper level ridge along the west coast nudges east.
Not expecting much improvement tonight with continued north to northeast low-level flow being overrun by warmer southwesterly flow aloft. Drier air temporarily works in above the low-level inversion on Monday which should allow some sunshine to break through the clouds by afternoon.
analysis depicts an ill-defined cold front positioned over the Florida Straits, with most of the precipitation over our area currently focused along an area of coastal convergence over Broward County. An area of low pressure will begin to develop along the nearly stationary boundary over the Gulf Stream today. Tonight will be fairly mild with lows mostly in the low to mid 60s, with some patchy fog possible over the south, although some subtle NWrly flow may be enough to limit this potential.
High pressure over the region is providing plenty of dry conditions.
Winds will gradually shift to the northwest through early morning as a cold front moves into the area, then continue to veer to the northeast. A upper trough will swing down across New Mexico today with a weak cold front pushing through the region this morning.
It will be colder than yesterday which was very mild but most locations will creep up to above freezing, with some lower 40s possible along the Missouri River. The main concern will be that some of this light precipitation could be freezing drizzle but for now amounts far too light for any problems. Will add a small pop near and east of the Buffalo Ridge and watch trends. Otherwise lows will range from the lower 20s in south central SD to around 5 above in southwest MN.
635 AM EST Sun Feb 6 2022 After a cold start to this Sunday morning, a southerly breeze and sunshine will aid in pushing air temperatures back up to around the freezing mark.
Absolutely tranquil weather across the region early this morning, with high pressure continuing to promote a clear sky and dry conditions. In response to this area of high pressure shifting east of the area, our winds will veer to the south today. This will result in a welcome warm-up as this southerly flow combined with abundant sunshine will nudge our temperatures into the lower 50s by this afternoon (about 10-15 degrees higher than yesterday).
A weak cold front moves into far northwestern areas late this afternoon and across the remainder of our area tonight. Weak cold advection behind the front and along with some clouds ahead of an upper level trough may cool off high temperatures about a degree or two on Monday, if at all.
312 AM CST Sun Feb 6 2022 H5 analysis tonight had a low off the coast of Baja California with high pressure noted off the northern California coast. Ridging extended north of the high into northern British Columbia. A cold front extended northwest of the low with a warm front extending southeast into southwestern Minnesota. this feature will force a cold front through the forecast area this morning with the bulk of the arctic air off to the northeast of the forecast area.
Northeast winds will increase today, especially for the higher terrain along the Mogollon Rim and Bradshaw Mountains. In fact, the probability of experiencing at least 20-25 mph sustained winds is at least 50-60% for regions downwind of the larger terrain features across the High Country today. Winds through the day on Monday should be much more subdued as mid-level high pressure becomes entrenched some across the Sierras. As we've mentioned over the past few days, high pressure will re-build across the Pacific Northwest with the ridge axis extending southeastward toward northern Arizona. While precipitation chances remain under 5%, the low-level height and surface pressure gradient will again tighten.
703 AM EST Sun Feb 6 2022 High pressure will start the day overhead, but start to slide eastward through the day. Upper level ridging will keep it dry today. Warm advection/southerly flow ahead of approaching upper trough, combined with a fair amount of sun, should push temperatures a few degrees above average Monday afternoon. By late in the day a cold front will approach northwest PA. The low is moving a little too quickly to throw precip more than a trace back into the CWA.
521 AM CST Sun Feb 6 2022 We may only realize a narrow zone of decoupled near surface flow early this morning ahead of the surface trof/weak cold front, so freezing fog potential is a bit more conditional across south central and southeast Kansas. Otherwise, there may be a period of cloudiness this afternoon from north central into eastern Kansas associated with some moisture evident in the 850-700mb layer within the trof aloft as it moves southeastward across the area.
524 AM CST Sun Feb 6 2022 (Today and tonight) An upper trough will move from the northern Plains into the Midwest today, and become more elongated as its southern portion shifts south across West Texas tonight. Associated cold front will be weak for our area, with mainly just a wind shift. Ahead of this front, weak downsloping southwest to west winds and sunny skies will allow for warmer temperatures compared to yesterday. Highs are expected to be in the lower to mid 50s across the southern half of our area, with the warmest readings along the I-10 corridor. With the proximity of the mid/upper level trough may have a few patchy clouds tonight.
This will result in increasing southwesterly flow today, supporting warmer temperatures approaching early-February climo. It is the more pronounced dry layers atop saturated low-levels that are usually associated with light freezing drizzle. Given the uncertainty, we will retain light freezing drizzle but also include "or" wording for light snow/flurries.
339 AM CST Sun Feb 6 2022 A cold front is now clearing the southeast Texas Panhandle. North winds are expected to pick up into the 20 to 30 mph range with higher gusts by late this morning as a positively tilted upper level trough moves across the Panhandles and cold air advection increases.
Upper ridging is building behind the trough over the West Coast. Warmer air will advect back into the area today, with highs in the upper 30s and 40s.
404 AM EST Sun Feb 6 2022 Low pressure near Thunder Bay Ontario, at 1012mb, has been supported within a region of 4 dam per 12 hr height falls associated with direct 850-500mb relative vorticity advection. Models actually show the deepest low pressure circulation to settle slowly southeastward today, favoring cyclonic shear within the composite trough and additional Pacific origin absolute vorticity that will be merging/amplifying into the Great Lakes region late tonight/1st half of Monday. Did raise high temperatures a couple of degrees to around the freezing mark. The cold front is then forecasted to release quickly eastward through Southeast Michigan between 15-18Z Monday. Did take the liberty to raise highs a degree to get near the freezing mark. Post cold front, lapse rates are forecasted to steepen diurnally from the surface through 5.
815 AM EST Sun Feb 6 2022 High pressure brings a dry finish to the weekend, with a milder afternoon today. A weak cold front arrives Monday night with light snow possible, followed by high pressure. Diurnal heating and a contribution of light southerly flow will permit temperatures to climb into the mid 40s across the lowlands, and into the mid 20s northeast mountains. Monday starts the short term period off dry as high pressure exits off to the northeast. Temperatures on Monday will be around seasonable with 40s expected across the lowlands and 30s to 40s along the higher elevations.