Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1154 AM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022 Rain chance will lower through midweek as a slow moving low pressure system shifts east of the region. Upper low pressure will continue a slow trundle across the Upr OH Region through Wednesday. Although weak cool and dry advection is progged through tonight following the surface frontal passage, clouds will persist as per an overall moist atmospheric column with the low center. Some improvement is expected on Wednesday as the upper trough begins to shift to the northeast.
In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a broad and deep 500 mb trough over the northern Rockies and northern Plains 12z Fri. This trough moves slowly more into the northern plains 12z Sat and into the upper Great Lakes 12z Sun. This trough moves to the lower Great Lakes 12z Mon. With a ridge of high pressure dominating, overall light winds of 20kts or less are expected into Thu. The wind does increase to 25 knots Thu evening out ahead of a cold front, but behind this front the wind goes back below 20 knots again.
The Great Basin midlevel anticyclone will remain stationary with no change in strength through Wednesday, resulting in no impacts.
Should be hot day with highs in the lower-mid 90s inland, around 90 coast.
152 PM MDT Tue Sep 6 2022 Massive western CONUS ridge will remain anchored over the west through Wednesday, supporting hot and dry conds locally.
1116 AM MDT Tue Sep 6 2022 Water vapor continues to show large scale ridge over the western US and Plains. At the surface, very broad trof covers the Northern Plains. A couple more days of hot and dry weather expected before strong trof/cold front moves through. Wednesday looks to be the hottest day as thermal ridge peaks across the area.
303 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022 Northern portions of a very large upper ridge over the western and central CONUS Will stretch east into the Great Lakes for the rest of the week on into parts of the weekend as a slow moving upper low pressure system over the northern Ohio Valley region opens to some degree and wobbles off the the east and southeast.
200 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 Key Messages: - Areas of fog possible again tonight for some - Higher chances for rain returns this weekend Area remains along eastern fringes of broad upper ridge that covers western and central U. Weaker flow through large depth in the lower atmosphere has led to periods of pesky clouds and bouts of valley fog, which will continue to be problematic looking at tonight. As upper ridge starts to break down on eastern edge, could start to see some weak waves drop into the area from the northwest but so far not a strong signal in guidance for bonified precipitation chances. Much stronger signal exists as broad trough starts to dive into the upper Midwest late in the week.
(This evening through Wednesday Night) The troughing upper level low responsible for today's pattern across the ArkLaTex will continue steering the forecast through the course of this short term period. With a pronounced large high over the Intermountain West, troughing around a closed low over the upper Midwest will deepen southwestward into the Four State Region, broadening and sliding gradually to the southeast into the day Wednesday, becoming reoriented around a new closed low over the Gulf Coast of LA/MS/AL. The night does not look to remain entirely quiet, however, as a burst of upper level energy looks to ride down the forward side of the ridge overnight, serving to kick up areas of redeveloping convection along and north of the I-30 corridor in the pre-sunrise hours, spreading southeast by daybreak.
Overnight lows Wednesday night will be notably cooler outside of the urban heat island of Chicago with temperatures dipping into mid 50s.
328 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022 The wet period of weather that has been impacting a good portion of the area finally comes to an overnight tonight as high pressure builds in from the north.
A thermal ridge will bring warmer than normal temperatures for the next few days. This trough will turn our winds to be out of the north, and allow us to get into the upper 40s to mid 50s tonight.
229 PM MDT Tue Sep 6 2022 Fast moving but intense ridge rebuilds into the area tomorrow. A cold front does move through the area during the afternoon and evening hours, could see an isolated shower or rumble of thunder with the frontal passage but nothing significant.
(This evening through Wednesday night) Louisiana and Mississippi are still under the influence of upper level troughing which is slowly moving east while further west has a large ridge with a cutoff low. This trough has been the primary driver of our current unsettled weather with large cloud deck with showers and thunderstorms over much of southern Louisiana.
(This evening through Wednesday) The amplified, positively-tilted trough that has lingered just to the east of our forecast area has been kicked out by a resurgent western ridge today. Given height rises as the ridge reasserts itself, conditions are likely to remain dry across much of the forecast area through this evening and tonight. Can't entirely rule out precip in the far southeast counties where strong boundary layer heating could breach convective temperatures in the low-to-mid 90s. Heights should remain fairly constant tomorrow with our CWA on the eastern periphery of the ridge. Expect tomorrow to be warmer by a couple of degrees than today.
1252 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 (Today through Wednesday) Deterministic NWP models generally agree that the upper trough will move gradually eastward today, with the approximately N-S axis along the coast by 00z Wednesday. The foregoing models move the upper trough over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday, resulting in subsidence/drying over the CWA.
a weak positively tilted upper trof axis remained just to the south and southeast of the CWA with the base of the axis across Eastern Texas. the combination of the upper level trof and the surface boundary will act as the foci for the potential of diurnally driven pulse type convection.
Strong upper level high pressure ridge centered over the Great Basin will continue to bring hot early September high temperatures today and Wednesday along with clear/sunny skies.
upper high. Dry airmass and clear skies will allow for efficient radiational cooling with lows dropping into the upper 30s/around 40 across the high valleys around LXV and Creede for tonight. Will start to see hazy skies late today going into tomorrow as wildfire smoke from fires in the Pacific Northwest round the eastern periphery of the upper high.
242 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 18Z surface data has high pressure over the Great Lakes and mid- Mississippi Valley while a cold front ran from northwest Minnesota into South Dakota. Behind the cold front dew points were in the 40s and 50s.
Wednesday Night Through Tuesday 500mb ridge across the central United States into the western Great Lakes will break down by the end of the work week.
Temperatures should continue to rise into the low 90s by late afternoon. Latest RAP H500 analysis shows a center of high pressure is located over Utah and is bringing northerly to northeasterly flow across the Southern High Plains. High pressure is forecast to remain mostly stationary through tomorrow, with only a minor shift to the east expected. To the east of our forecast area, low pressure strengthens across the southeastern US and northerly flow continues across the Plains. Temperatures will rise once again into the 90s and could perhaps be a degree or two warmer than today.
After low temperatures tonight in the lower to mid 60s, we'll see afternoon highs again Wednesday in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
1201 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022 A slow moving upper level trough will push east across Pennsylvania today and Wednesday.
(This afternoon through Wednesday night) A broad upper level ridge encompassing the western half of the CONUS will be our main weather driver for today and tomorrow. Subsidence from the ridge and plenty of mid-level dry air in place will keep precipitation chances at zero areawide each day. A weak cold front is set to move in tomorrow, but won't bring much of an impact other than a wind shift to the northeast.
Upper level troughing remains in place across the Lower Mississippi and Deep South this afternoon. This cloud cover is helping to keep temperatures in the lower to middle 80s and is limiting destabilization. A somewhat weak jet aloft was also noted over portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valley with bulk shear values of around 30- 35 knots across southeast Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and portions of south central Alabama. An upper trof extending from the eastern Great Lakes into eastern Texas advances slowly eastward through Wednesday to extend from Louisiana into the northeast states. A weak surface trof/boundary which currently extends from the near the Red River valley into Kentucky meanwhile slowly drifts into the forecast area on Wednesday.
High pressure continues to build over the area Wednesday with the upper level ridge overhead.
(This evening through Wednesday) Expansive upper ridging remains anchored over the western CONUS this afternoon with fair weather currently observed across much of the region. Satellite imagery points to a relative lack of moisture beneath the ridge with deep subsidence and midlevel drying spreading over TX into the Desert Southwest. The upper level pattern will not vary much at all over the next 24 hours as the ridge remains the dominant synoptic feature.
113 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022 A slow moving upper level trough will push east across Pennsylvania today and Wednesday.
1144 AM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 (Rest of Today) A positively-sheared mid/upper-level trough axis will continue to progress southeastward into the Mid-South and Lower OH Valley regions today, maintaining modest west-southwesterly flow aloft of 15-25 knots across the TN Valley. Present thinking is that convection will begin to develop between 18-20Z as the current layer of low stratus clouds disperses, allowing for modest warming and destabilization of the boundary layer ahead of a weak cold front/wind shift axis associated with the upper trough.
1229 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) An upper level high will remain nearly stationary near the Four Corners Region for the next several days leaving southeastern New Mexico and West Texas on its strong subsident southeastern edge. Tomorrow a weak cold front will manage to sneak into the area, but it will be lacking any cold air and its effects will not be noticed much beyond a northeasterly wind shift.
1234 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 (Today through Wednesday Night) Activity is continuing over the Gulf waters along the coastal trough as slightly drier air filters into the CWA. Highs today will range from the lower 90s for most areas. Low temper- atures tonight (and tomorrow night) will be in the lower 70s. The forecast for tomorrow could feature slightly more activity over SE TX as the upper low sinks a bit closer to the CWA.
1204 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 (Today and tonight) The longwave trough axis from the eastern Great Lakes region southwest into northeast Texas continues to very slowly inch eastward away from the area, and with it the primary precipitation chances.
1257 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022 High pressure will build slowly south across the region today then remain over the area tonight into Wednesday.
638 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 (This evening through Wednesday) The amplified, positively-tilted trough that has lingered just to the east of our forecast area has been kicked out by a resurgent western ridge today. Given height rises as the ridge reasserts itself, conditions are likely to remain dry across much of the forecast area through this evening and tonight. Can't entirely rule out precip in the far southeast counties where strong boundary layer heating could breach convective temperatures in the low-to-mid 90s. Heights should remain fairly constant tomorrow with our CWA on the eastern periphery of the ridge. Expect tomorrow to be warmer by a couple of degrees than today.
604 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 (This afternoon through Wednesday night) A broad upper level ridge encompassing the western half of the CONUS will be our main weather driver for today and tomorrow. Subsidence from the ridge and plenty of mid-level dry air in place will keep precipitation chances at zero areawide each day. A weak cold front is set to move in tomorrow, but won't bring much of an impact other than a wind shift to the northeast.
506 PM MDT Tue Sep 6 2022 Massive western CONUS ridge will remain anchored over the west through Wednesday, supporting hot and dry conds locally.
1027 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022 A slow moving upper level trough will push east across Pennsylvania tonight and Wednesday.
Strong upper level high pressure ridge centered over the Great Basin will continue to bring hot early September high temperatures through Wednesday along with clear/sunny skies.
614 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022 High pressure will build slowly south across the region tonight then remain over the area into Wednesday.
The first is a notable dry layer in the lowest 2500 feet of the atmosphere. Lastly, an approaching upper level trough is trudging southeast towards the Sunshine State, which is acting to weaken the low level ridge and causing it to lose definition. The "best" chance will be across the Lower Keys should they get a glancing blow from any remnant boundaries that move off the southwest Florida mainland. High pressure over the western North Atlantic will continue to weaken overnight, with diminishing easterly breezes across the Keys coastal waters.
705 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022 The late afternoon cloud field continues a diminishing response as cooler air is supplied by Lake Huron and as daytime heating fades with sunset. Fog potential will then be considered around sunrise as the center of high pressure remains nearby in the northern Great Lakes and upper Midwest. Northern portions of a very large upper ridge over the western and central CONUS Will stretch east into the Great Lakes for the rest of the week on into parts of the weekend as a slow moving upper low pressure system over the northern Ohio Valley region opens to some degree and wobbles off the the east and southeast.
(Zeringue) (This evening through Wednesday night) Louisiana and Mississippi are still under the influence of upper level troughing which is slowly moving east while further west has a large ridge with a cutoff low. This trough has been the primary driver of our current unsettled weather with large cloud deck with showers and thunderstorms over much of southern Louisiana.
525 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 (Tonight) A swath of showers and thunderstorms has formed extending through southern middle TN into portions of northeast MS along a weakness at 850mb embedded within a broader upper-level positively tilted trough.
652 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022 Rain chance will lower through midweek as a slow moving low pressure system shifts east of the region. Upper low pressure will continue a slow trundle across the Upr OH Region through Wednesday. Although weak cool and dry advection is progged through tonight following the surface frontal passage, clouds will persist as per an overall moist atmospheric column with the low center. Some improvement is expected on Wednesday as the upper trough begins to shift to the northeast.
915 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022 A cold front will continue to push south of the area tonight through Wednesday.
Another day of record-breaking heat is expected on Wednesday as a large area of high pressure aloft remains centered over Utah. The potential for convection increases on Wednesday ahead of a cold front.
Surface temperatures have increased some compared to 24 hours ago, and are currently ~2-5 degrees F warmer than those observed yesterday across the region.
634 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 (This evening through Wednesday Night) The troughing upper level low responsible for today's pattern across the ArkLaTex will continue steering the forecast through the course of this short term period. With a pronounced large high over the Intermountain West, troughing around a closed low over the upper Midwest will deepen southwestward into the Four State Region, broadening and sliding gradually to the southeast into the day Wednesday, becoming reoriented around a new closed low over the Gulf Coast of LA/MS/AL. The night does not look to remain entirely quiet, however, as a burst of upper level energy looks to ride down the forward side of the ridge overnight, serving to kick up areas of redeveloping convection along and north of the I-30 corridor in the pre-sunrise hours, spreading southeast by daybreak.
745 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022 The wet period of weather that has been impacting a good portion of the area finally comes to an overnight tonight as high pressure builds in from the north.
18Z surface data has high pressure over the Great Lakes and mid- Mississippi Valley while a cold front ran from northwest Minnesota into South Dakota. Behind the cold front dew points were in the 40s and 50s.
637 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 Gradually warming temperatures will be the main story over the next few days, as a ridge of high pressure moves across the northern plains into the Missouri Valley. Ketcham The above mentioned cold front will move south across the forecast area, either during the overnight hours on Fri or early on Sat. Some subtle model differences on timing of the front, pushing south on Sat, which may lead to another above normal max temperature day for southern KS, with much cooler air moving into central KS by Sat afternoon. Expect most of Sat, to be cloudy with scattered showers and some embedded thunder around, with noticeably cooler temperatures for most locations.
656 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 (This evening through Wednesday night) Louisiana and Mississippi are still under the influence of upper level troughing which is slowly moving east while further west has a large ridge with a cutoff low. This trough has been the primary driver of our current unsettled weather with large cloud deck with showers and thunderstorms over much of southern Louisiana.
552 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022 Rain chance will lower through midweek as a slow moving low pressure system shifts east of the region. Upper low pressure will continue a slow trundle across the Upr OH Region through Wednesday. Although weak cool and dry advection is progged through tonight following the surface frontal passage, clouds will persist as per an overall moist atmospheric column with the low center. Some improvement is expected on Wednesday as the upper trough begins to shift to the northeast.
628 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 Key Messages: - Areas of fog possible again tonight for some - Higher chances for rain returns this weekend Area remains along eastern fringes of broad upper ridge that covers western and central U. Weaker flow through large depth in the lower atmosphere has led to periods of pesky clouds and bouts of valley fog, which will continue to be problematic looking at tonight. As upper ridge starts to break down on eastern edge, could start to see some weak waves drop into the area from the northwest but so far not a strong signal in guidance for bonified precipitation chances. Much stronger signal exists as broad trough starts to dive into the upper Midwest late in the week.
610 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 (This evening through Wednesday) Expansive upper ridging remains anchored over the western CONUS this afternoon with fair weather currently observed across much of the region. Satellite imagery points to a relative lack of moisture beneath the ridge with deep subsidence and midlevel drying spreading over TX into the Desert Southwest. The upper level pattern will not vary much at all over the next 24 hours as the ridge remains the dominant synoptic feature.
1050 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022 High pressure will build south across the region overnight then remain over the area into Wednesday.
Temperatures are now about 3 to 5 degrees warmer than the forecast and needed adjustments this update. A thermal ridge will bring warmer than normal temperatures for the next few days. This trough will turn our winds to be out of the north, and allow us to get into the upper 40s to mid 50s tonight.
WV imagery indicates broad scale upper level ridging extending across the entire Intermountain West into the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a weak lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado. The Great Basin midlevel anticyclone will remain stationary with no change in strength through Wednesday, resulting in no impacts.
1026 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 (This evening through Wednesday) The amplified, positively-tilted trough that has lingered just to the east of our forecast area has been kicked out by a resurgent western ridge today. Given height rises as the ridge reasserts itself, conditions are likely to remain dry across much of the forecast area through this evening and tonight. Can't entirely rule out precip in the far southeast counties where strong boundary layer heating could breach convective temperatures in the low-to-mid 90s. Heights should remain fairly constant tomorrow with our CWA on the eastern periphery of the ridge. Expect tomorrow to be warmer by a couple of degrees than today.
The cold frontal wind shift has already pushed south of the region, but decent low-level moisture remains across the entire Quad State this afternoon. The upper trough that has plagued the area the last few days is forecast to push southward out of the region tonight and high pressure aloft will build eastward into the mid and upper Mississippi Valley through Thursday. At the surface, high pressure will slowly build over the region before settling overhead Thursday.
1130 PM MDT Tue Sep 6 2022 Upper ridge remains in place through Thursday with hot and dry conditions continuing. However, wind speeds will remain less than critical criteria due to proximity to the ridge.
After sunrise, fog will erode giving way to a beautiful Wednesday with mostly sunny skies, light winds, low humidity levels, and highs in the lower 80s. Thursday looks like a carbon copy of today though a hair warmer.
Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the Pacific NW and a trough on the east coast with a ridge over the Rockies 00z Thu. The trough moves into the northern Rockies 00z Fri and into the northern plains 00z Sat. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough in the northern plains 12z Sat which moves to the upper Great Lakes 12z Sun where it remains into 12z Mon. This trough closes off a 500 mb low 00z Mon which then slows everything way down as the trough moves slowly to the lower Great Lakes 12z Tue into Wed. Light winds of 20 knots or less continue across Lake Superior until a cold front approaches from the west Thursday night.
After low temperatures tonight in the lower to mid 60s, we'll see afternoon highs again Wednesday in the upper 80s to lower 90s. We will see a cold front settle into northeast Nebraska Thursday night.
1135 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 Gradually warming temperatures will be the main story over the next few days, as a ridge of high pressure moves across the northern plains into the Missouri Valley. Ketcham The above mentioned cold front will move south across the forecast area, either during the overnight hours on Fri or early on Sat. Some subtle model differences on timing of the front, pushing south on Sat, which may lead to another above normal max temperature day for southern KS, with much cooler air moving into central KS by Sat afternoon. Expect most of Sat, to be cloudy with scattered showers and some embedded thunder around, with noticeably cooler temperatures for most locations.
A stagnant hot/dry pattern continues today into tonight with little change expected to the broad scale upper level ridging dominating throughout the entire Intermountain West and Western High Plains, not to mention a fairly dry air mass in the lower/mid levels limiting potential instability. Lows tonight are expected to range from the upper 50s(F) in west central Kansas to the lower/mid 60s(F) farther east. Prevailing hot/dry conditions will linger through the end of the week despite medium range models indicating upper level ridging in the Intermountain West breaking down Thursday while shifting eastward into the Central Plains.