Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
H500 southwesterly flow will continue across the Panhandles throughout the day today as the center of the high pressure system is quasi-stationary and roughly over the Red River Valley north of the DFW metroplex.
217 AM MDT Tue Aug 24 2021 A cold front has moved through the area overnight with a few showers and thunderstorms. Upper trough will move through the area this morning with skies clearing. High pressure moves in tonight which will diminish the winds. The high moves to the east on Wednesday and flow aloft turns to the SW ahead of an upper trough that will be moving inland from the Pacific.
Water vapor imagery indicates the large upper low across southern Canada approaching the region, and an additional upper level wave propagating into western North Dakota. The ongoing MCS has delayed the northward advancement of the elevated warm front/warm sector, but we know that synoptically the warm sector will eventually advance northward and much of the region will be under the influence of warm air advection within a moderately unstable atmosphere. Best chances for convection/precipitation will likely be on the northern edge of the warmer mid-level temperatures, maybe as the upper wave advancing into western North Dakota arrives.
(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Little to no change expected this week as an upper ridge remains in control. A strong ridge means no rain in sight, even for the higher terrain. Expect lows to dip mostly into the 60s with even some 50's in the higher terrain.
1223 AM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021 High pressure continues over the area. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period as high pressure strengthens over the region. The ridge of higher moisture supporting the current convection will move eastward overnight.
317 AM EDT Tue Aug 24 2021 High pressure builds across the local area through the end of the week. Upper level trough continuing to pull away to the NE today w/ upper level ridge beginning to spread E from the srn plains/lower MS Valley. Outside of the higher terrain far NW.
High pressure over the area and subsidence aloft will keep us dry today. With high pressure still over the Tennessee Valley, we'll still have a good setup for fog development again tonight into Wednesday morning. High pressure over the Tennessee Valley starts to break down on Wednesday with the Bermuda High becoming more dominant, leading to more moist southerly flow advecting in a more saturated, unstable air mass.
Expect morning lows in the low to middle 70s, warmest along and west of the Mississippi River. The upper ridge will be the driving force for the next few days as hot and dry conditions will prevail through Wednesday. Expect the influence of the ridge to wane late in the week and temperatures will moderate and rain chances will increase later in the week.
A ridge of high pressure aloft will maintain VFR conditions thru the period. The mid level ridge currently taking hold across the southern plains will continue to bring mostly clear skies through tomorrow morning. Protected areas within valleys will likely be a few degrees cooler tonight.
Upper high over the southern Plains today builds north into the central Plains through the mid-week with the upper jet displaced well north. The front and any outflow could combine with slightly cooler air aloft to keep heat indices cooler for at least northern locations.
130 AM EDT Tue Aug 24 2021 High pressure builds across the area through the end of the week. Kept isltd PoPs in this eve across nrn zones as some of the high res data suggests this psblty over the next few hrs. Otherwise, skies will average mostly sunny with afternoon temps warming quickly into the low and mid 90s. Ridge in control at the surface and aloft on Wednesday but is forecast to nudge eastward into the Atlantic, allowing for slightly greater shower and storm chances across the south and west by the afternoon. Hot once again with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s.
115 AM EDT Tue Aug 24 2021 [Through 06Z Wednesday] Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the day today with the highest coverage for the afternoon at all TAF sites. Tomorrow we'll continue our transition from troughing to ridging.
Dry conditions and well above normal temperature expected today and tonight with high pressure in control.
Tuesday features upper level ridging dominating the southern and southeastern portions of the U. , gradually giving way to a weak inverted upper level trough approaching from the southeast through Wednesday night.
On Wednesday, a cold front is expected to move into the area and stall out. This will result in noticably cooler temperatures for most of the area, but southeastern zones could still see heat index values in the low 100s.
320 AM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021 Dome of high pressure will continue to be the dominate feature across the Southern Plains Today and Wednesday with hot and humid conditions across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
Look for generally hot and humid conditions again today as high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will allow the area to reach into the low to mid 90s. As we move into Wednesday, the easterly flow will be on the increase, so look for more clouds and slightly cooler temperatures. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s.
(Today and Tonight) A typical summertime pattern expected the next 24 hours, as an upper level ridge persists over the area. with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
Water vapor imagery continues to show the deep plume of drier air diving to our west along the backside of the trough. A subsequent low level moisture gradient is also present at the surface, with dew points in the mid-upper 60s across the Upstate and in the low- mid 70s across the Midlands.
/NEW/ /Through Tuesday night/ The axis of a mid level ridge stretches from west to east across North Texas, and should remain fairly stationary for the next few days. At the surface, a ridge to the east and trough in lee of the Rockies will maintain southerly winds of 5 to 15 MPH across the region. Either way, the highest dewpoints will be generally east of Interstate 45/Highway 75, which is where apparent temperatures will likely reach or exceed 105 during the peak heating hours.
300 AM MDT Tue Aug 24 2021 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over far eastern MT, with warm front to the northeast of the region, trough/dryline over northwest into central SD, and a cold front across southeast MT and into eastern WY. Cold front will swing through the area from northwest to southeast through the morning and midday hours, bringing cooler and breezy conditions behind it. Highs will range from the 70s over northeast WY and the Black Hills to the low/mid 90s over south central SD. The rest of the week and the weekend look to be seasonably warm and unsettled at times as a larger scale trough settles over the Pacific NW region and a series of disturbances move through the Rockies and Northern Plains in active west to southwest flow.
252 AM EDT Tue Aug 24 2021 High pressure builds across the local area through the end of the week. Upper level trough continuing to pull away to the NE today w/ upper level ridge beginning to spread E from the srn plains/lower MS Valley. Outside of the higher terrain far NW.
A warm front stretches from far Southern Lower Michigan to the west-northwest across Northern Illinois into Northern Iowa. This warm front will lift into Southwest Lower Michigan today and may be the impetus for scattered thunderstorm development as early as this afternoon. The warm front will move north tonight with a cold front approaching from the west at the same time.
As a result, expect breezy southwest winds with slightly warmer temperatures. However, minor discrepancies in passing trough's amplitude and position/timing will result in varied QPF estimates through end of period. Big picture illustrates a trough of low pressure, which currently resides over the Pacific Northwest, to start propagating inland Wednesday and then drift across the Northern Rockies and adjacent plains by this weekend. The eastward progression of the trough on Wednesday nudges an upper level jet closer to the northwest corner of the forecast area, resulting in stronger winds overhead as the pressure gradient tightens.
207 AM EDT Tue Aug 24 2021 An U/L ridge will hold over the region today.
A few more of the CAMs runs have the first scenario, but still a few are showing some impressive updraft helicity values developing across our eastern counties as a cold front pushes into the region. The cold front will push the rest of the way through the CWA Tuesday night and any convection that does redevelop will be shunted off to the east by midnight. While there are the usual subtle variations within the cluster analyses, overall good agreement exists on a trough digging in over the Pacific Northwest and continuing to induce southwesterly flow and surface systems over the northern and Central High Plains. Tonight's thunderstorm development is associated with a cold front that will push through the area Tuesday.
Mid and upper level ridging will continue over the region. Boundary layer temps continue to hover in the low 30C range clearly indicating low 100s will be likely through the short term. As such, expect most areas to remain in the low 100s but may not reach heat advisory criteria due to the drier air. Metzger The extended range starts out much likely the short range, hot and dry with mid and upper level ridging continuing to dominate the region.
1135 PM CDT Mon Aug 23 2021 Hot and humid conditions were occuring across the area this afternoon as the upper level ridge to the south slowly nudges towards the area. Afternoon highs or on track to reach the low to middle 90s. We will likely begin to see some mixing in the afternoon which will drop dewpoints some, however warmer temps will compensate with heat index values of 100-105 still expected.
An upper ridge was centered over the Southern Plains early this morning as an upper trough extended from Saskatchewan Canada into Montana. A cold front will also move into north central NE this afternoon. As highs reach the low to mid 90s, dewpoints will hold in the mid 60s across the eastern zones, yielding heat index values in the mid 90s. Cooler air will move into the region tonight, with lows from the mid 50s northwest Sandhills to the low 60s southeast. Highs Wednesday mostly in the low to mid 80s with winds east to southeast in the afternoon.
Today Through Wednesday Night An upper ridge over the southern U. An upper trough over the northeast will move off the coast today. On Wednesday, the high will be centered over Oklahoma. Lows at night will be in the lower to mid 70s.
336 AM EDT Tue Aug 24 2021 High pressure at the surface and aloft will provide quiet weather today. High pressure building surface and aloft spells a hot late summer day today after the morning fog burns off. Central guidance maintains lowland highs in the lower to mid 90s on h85 temperatures just below 20C below a slight inversion near or just above that level. Showers and storms can be expected Wednesday, particularly across the higher terrain during peak heating hours. Hot and humid conditions will continue across the area, with heat indices touching the lower 100s in spots.
As of 9PM, temperatures were about 3 to 8 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. /GKoch 06Z TAFS: Weak high pressure will build over Alberta and British Columbia over the next 24 hours. The most active fire in the Inland Northwest is the Schneider Spring fire in the high terrain west of Yakima. Other fires may begin to produce a bit of smoke over the next few days of warmer and drier weather producing localized visibility reductions.
1207 AM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021 VFR and dry with upper level high pressure ridge overhead and in control. /issued 627 PM CDT Mon Aug 23 2021/ Should be a quiet night as very limited attempts at shower development west of KLBB and KPVW have failed and thunderstorms on the high terrain of central New Mexico are likely to dissipated on the plains of eastern New Mexico. /issued 207 PM CDT Mon Aug 23 2021/ The center of the upper level high pressure system centered over eastern Texas will expand westward over the next 24 hours. As the high continues to build westward, temperatures will be slightly warmer on Tuesday; to most people, it will feel hot. Upper level ridging will remain in place squarely overhead on Wednesday before it begins to shift northeast late in the week and weekend.
311 AM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021 Upper level high pressure ridge axis just to our south will lift north across the area later today and tonight.
High pressure will result in VFR conditions and a mostly clear sky through the period. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 94 73 93 72 89 / 10 0 30 10 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 94 71 93 71 90 / 10 0 30 10 50 Oak Ridge, TN 93 71 93 70 90 / 0 0 30 10 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 93 68 93 67 91 / 10 10 30 10 50.
113 AM EDT Tue Aug 24 2021 High pressure will continue offshore with weak troughing over inland areas for much of this week. Overnight lows should be in the low to mid 70s.
Upper high located over the Arklatex this afternoon with positive ridging extending eastward toward TN. The west to east ridge will get a little more pronounced on Tuesday. Upper high to build across the Carolinas over the weekend with a southwesterly moist flow setting up. Lows will remain in the lower 70s as a plentiful amount of August humidity remains.
Temperature is expected to approach 90 degrees for most of the lower elevation areas, with heat indices creeping near the mid 90s for portions of southeast OH where higher dewpoints exist.
Even colder temperatures approaching the freezing mark have been observed in the Upper Blackfoot and Seeley/Swan Ranges. Temperatures this afternoon will run a few degrees warmer than yesterday for the Northern Rockies, but still several degrees below normal for this time of the year.
With an upper ridge firmly in place, another dry very warm day expected today, and temps will remain very warm on Wed as well. On Wed however, our upper ridge will weaken a bit and that will allow some moderate moisture to creep into parts of our east/south. While the upper ridge does go through several variations into the weekend, it will remain the dominant feature aloft, as does high pressure at the SFC.
620 AM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021 (Today and Tonight) A typical summertime pattern expected the next 24 hours, as an upper level ridge persists over the area. with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
611 AM EDT Tue Aug 24 2021 A trough of low pressure will remain inland through Wednesday before giving way to Atlantic high pressure building into the area through the weekend. Will continue to see ridging from the west extending into the Carolinas this morning with a drier column overall, but as we progress through late today into Wed, the Atlantic ridge will build westward pushing trough/band of moisture over the offshore waters back toward the coast. As ridge continues to build westward, this band of moisture will get pushed farther inland through Wed with a good bit of dry air advecting in from the east.
High pressure will bring hotter temperatures the second half of the week.
Where cloud cover is more persistent, highs in the upper 80s can be expected, with max temps in the low 90s where more sunshine can break through. (Previous Discussion) Ridge axis will lift slightly northward today with the S/SSW winds north of the Cape and S/SE to the south, backing to more to the SE/ESE this afternoon. Ridge axis will be north of the waters tonight providing an ESE/SE wind flow of 10-15 kt.
All models are showing a weak trough over the west coast of the United States that will continue to bring a dry southwest flow aloft. By Wednesday, the upper level trough deepens a bit over the west coast but southwest flow continues.
425 AM PDT Tue Aug 24 2021 Coastal low clouds will continue the next few nights, but become increasingly shallower and confined to coastal areas as high pressure to the east slowly expands.
Only change moving into tonight and Wednesday is the ridge- riding short wave continues its slow trek to the east, reaching the upper Midwest by Wednesday afternoon. This maintains ridging over the Ohio Valley, but the closer proximity of the trough allows a few more storms to reach the northern CWA during this period. A large mid level ridge will extend from the Central Plains through the Ohio Valley at mid week.
CAMs been consistently indicating that convective initiation will occur along and to the north of the warm front early this morning across the northeast. The low clouds will likely continue south through the morning, especially as winds turn northerly/northwesterly as the low moves through. It is uncertain how far south the low clouds will make it, but into central North Dakota is not out of the question. A broad upper trough will be moving into the northwestern CONUS, which will set up southwesterly flow aloft across the northern Plains.
917 AM EDT Tue Aug 24 2021 A trough of low pressure will remain inland through Wednesday before giving way to Atlantic high pressure building into the area through the weekend. Will continue to see ridging from the west extending into the Carolinas this morning with a drier column overall, but as we progress through late today into Wed, the Atlantic ridge will build westward pushing trough/band of moisture over the offshore waters back toward the coast. As ridge continues to build westward, this band of moisture will get pushed farther inland through Wed with a good bit of dry air advecting in from the east.
936 AM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021 An upper level high pressure ridge will remain in place over the Tennessee Valley today, promoting mostly sunny, hot, and humid conditions once again. As a result, expect temperatures to creep into the low to mid 90s during the afternoon hours. The combination of these temperatures and dewpoints in the lower 70s will push heat index values into the 100 to 105 degree range. With high pressure still over the Tennessee Valley, we'll still have a good setup for fog development again tonight into Wednesday morning. High pressure over the Tennessee Valley starts to break down on Wednesday with the Bermuda High becoming more dominant, leading to more moist southerly flow advecting in a more saturated, unstable air mass.
TFJ A cold front has moved through the area overnight with a few showers and thunderstorms. Upper trough will move through the area this morning with skies clearing. High pressure moves in tonight which will diminish the winds. The high moves to the east on Wednesday and flow aloft turns to the SW ahead of an upper trough that will be moving inland from the Pacific.
Still appears to be a rather active pattern for the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend, with a few more waves of low pressure at the surface, and mid level energy crossing the region.
VFR conditions will prevail beneath high pressure aloft. /Issued 320 AM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021/ Dome of high pressure will continue to be the dominate feature across the Southern Plains Today and Wednesday with hot and humid conditions across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
721 AM EDT Tue Aug 24 2021 High pressure at the surface and aloft will provide quiet weather today. High pressure building surface and aloft spells a hot late summer day today after the morning fog burns off. Central guidance maintains lowland highs in the lower to mid 90s on h85 temperatures just below 20C below a slight inversion near or just above that level. Showers and storms can be expected Wednesday, particularly across the higher terrain during peak heating hours. Hot and humid conditions will continue across the area, with heat indices touching the lower 100s in spots.
High pressure will result in a mostly clear sky and light winds through the period with VFR conditions.
634 AM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021 The upper level ridge remains in place and will continue to allow for mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures in the middle 90s across the region again today. Some mixing is expected by late this afternoon but warmer temperatures that yesterday will keep heat indexes similar with a heat advisory remaining in effect today.
A broad upper ridge is centered over the Southern Plains, while a longwave trough is located over the northwestern CONUS.
515 AM MDT Tue Aug 24 2021 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over far eastern MT, with warm front to the northeast of the region, trough/dryline over northwest into central SD, and a cold front across southeast MT and into eastern WY. Cold front will swing through the area from northwest to southeast through the morning and midday hours, bringing cooler and breezy conditions behind it. Highs will range from the 70s over northeast WY and the Black Hills to the low/mid 90s over south central SD. The rest of the week and the weekend look to be seasonably warm and unsettled at times as a larger scale trough settles over the Pacific NW region and a series of disturbances move through the Rockies and Northern Plains in active west to southwest flow.
/Issued 406 AM EDT Tue Aug 24 2021/ The main player in the forecast today will be an upper-level ridge centered over TX and OK, extending eastward to the southern Appalachians. Over the last day or so, this area of high pressure has led to weak subsidence and mid-/upper-level drying over much of the CWA. Highs today will be on par with highs yesterday -- in the lower to mid-90s. The ridge loses its grip over the forecast area on Wednesday as an inverted trough/vort max traverses the CWA from east to west.
It is another warm early morning over the plains early this morning as temperatures across nearly all of the lower elevations were in the 70s, with temperatures approaching 80 immediately west of the Wet Mtns. Relatively quiet at the start of the period, with dry weather in place over southern CO, even across the higher terrain. This dry weather across the higher terrain will extend into the afternoon and evening, as a dry air mass remains in place.
438 AM PDT Tue Aug 24 2021 Cooler than average temperatures will continue through Wednesday. For today, high pressure remains anchored over TX as another upper level high currently at 40N/151W slowly drifts east. A long wave trough will remain firmly positioned over the west coast leaving central California under a cool, dry southwesterly flow. For reference, average temperatures for this time of August range from the low to mid-90s in the valley and Sierra foothills to around 100 degrees for the Kern county desert. For Wednesday, short-term ensembles show that the high pressure over TX will drift north into the central plains as the aforementioned high in the Pacific continues its slow trek eastward. The long wave trough over the west coast will move inland, with southwest flow becoming more westerly as the day progresses.
618 AM EDT Tue Aug 24 2021 High pressure builds across the local area through the end of the week. Upper level trough continuing to pull away to the NE today w/ upper level ridge beginning to spread E from the srn plains/lower MS Valley. Outside of the higher terrain far NW.
A series of weak upper-level troughs are forecast to move east across the PACNW during the remainder of the work week into the weekend. Upper troughing will initially aid in seasonable high temperatures across the interior.
Upper level high pressure will be overhead through the forecast. /issued 311 AM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021/ Upper level high pressure ridge axis just to our south will lift north across the area later today and tonight.
(This evening through Wednesday) Dewpoints are currently in the low 70s from central OK eastward along with low to mid 90 temps resulting in triple digit heat index values. Similar and even warmer conditions are expected by tomorrow afternoon under the upper high.
Confidence is low on this because of the strong ridge in place,fairly dry, mixed, soundings, meager lapse rates locally and weak shear.