Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Synoptic pattern remains generally unchanged as we continue through the week, with robust mid/upper ridging remaining the dominant feature over the South Central CONUS while at the surface a broad area of high pressure remains in place over the Eastern Gulf. Locations closer to the coast will see highs in the lower/mid 90s, while overnight lows in the upper 70s to low 80s will be commonplace area-wide.
A cold front will push through the region today, becoming gusty at times.
Continued influence from an upper level low to our north is expected today.
1256 AM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022 A break in the rain today as weak high pressure slides across the region. Rain returns this evening and overnight with crossing low pressure. Cloud cover was updated for the pre-dawn period as models are hinting that broken stratocu may accompany the cooler air behind the front. Weak high pressure will keep most of the daylight hours today quiet. An isolated storm may sneak into the far southern ridges late this afternoon. Increased sunshine will also allow for warmer temperatures. Drier air will begin to overspread the region on Thursday as a trough will setup over much of the east. Thursday will see more cloud cover as cooler air spreads across the region.
Clouds will increase again late tonight as an upper trough approaches from the Northern Plains.
121 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2022 Key Messages: 1) Isolated to scattered convection possible through today as a cold front shifts through the forecast area.
240 AM MDT Wed Jun 8 2022 Current surface analysis shows a slow moving frontal boundary across northern KS and CO, with weak high pressure to the west and northwest of the area. Upper level analysis shows trough now east and southeast of the area, with jet wrapping to the south across NE and IA. A milder and drier pattern will take over for the next few days as a ridge builds over the western US and gradually shifts east over the Plains by the weekend. It will be a bit warmer today, with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Warmer air will continue to build in late week, with highs on Thursday in the 70s to around 80 degrees.
By daybreak Thursday temperatures will be noticeably cooler and dewpoints drier making for a pleasant day.
1247 AM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022 A break in the rain today as weak high pressure slides across the region. Rain returns this evening and overnight with crossing low pressure. Cloud cover was updated for the pre-dawn period as models are hinting that broken stratocu may accompany the cooler air behind the front. Weak high pressure will keep most of the daylight hours today quiet. An isolated storm may sneak into the far southern ridges late this afternoon. Increased sunshine will also allow for warmer temperatures. Drier air will begin to overspread the region on Thursday as a trough will setup over much of the east. Thursday will see more cloud cover as cooler air spreads across the region.
Dry west-southwesterly flow, mid-leveling ridging and warming aloft will limit convective coverage in the morning and early afternoon. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.
Deeper moisture transport will really ramp up at night as the low- level jet increases. That destabilized area and locations beneath a pronounced 700mb baroclinic zone(typically in the +8C to +12C thermal zone is where MCS's typically like to track during the warmer months) that were void of daytime shower/storm activity would be the areas to watch.
Lots of instability in place but overall organization and wind energy levels are on the low side.
Temps stay on the cool side today with highs in the lower 60s in the east and mid to upper 60s in the west. NW flow will continue behind the system into Thursday and with another trough dropping across northern Lake Michigan on Thursday some cloud cover may linger in the east for Thursday. Highs will be closer to normal with values in the low to mid 70s but conditions will be dry.
After a few isolated showers and thunderstorms today, high pressure will build into the area for Wednesday, bringing relatively calm winds and clear skies. In addition, a few showers and thunderstorms may develop over the higher terrain of Southwestern Montana. Fair and warmer weather follows through the end of the week, with a broad anticyclonic upper-level flow over the Northern Rockies.
328 AM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022 The sub-tropical ridge axis is extending from the Atlantic across southern Florida and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, setting up westerly low level flow through the rest of the week. Under this pattern, showers and thunderstorms will start developing over the forecast area during the early afternoon, shifting east through the afternoon and early evening, with the highest rain chances inland.
303 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2022 Northwesterly flow returns today at 500mb as the ridge across ID/western MT/Alberta attempts to move in through the period. Expect the showers to diminish in coverage with the loss of daytime heating, and as drier high pressure nears from the west. An elongated area of high pressure will extend from eastern MT/western ND through western SD and western NE by 18Z. Mid to upper 50s dewpoints will move into our southwestern counties, where there is a better chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms as low pressure organizes over eastern CO into western NE/KS. After that, the ridge begins to build into the area keeping things mostly dry, but evening thunder can't be completely ruled out.
1203 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2022 (This evening through Wednesday) An Excessive Heat Warning will remain in place through this afternoon as high pressure will continue to sit across the region for the remainder of today and tomorrow.
627 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2022 Northwesterly flow returns today at 500mb as the ridge across ID/western MT/Alberta attempts to move in through the period. Expect the showers to diminish in coverage with the loss of daytime heating, and as drier high pressure nears from the west. An elongated area of high pressure will extend from eastern MT/western ND through western SD and western NE by 18Z. Mid to upper 50s dewpoints will move into our southwestern counties, where there is a better chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms as low pressure organizes over eastern CO into western NE/KS. After that, the ridge begins to build into the area keeping things mostly dry, but evening thunder can't be completely ruled out.
601 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2022 (Today and tonight) Somewhat complicated setup ongoing early this morning as several areas of convection continue, with one area across the panhandles and southwest KS tied to warm air advection along the nose of the low-level jet, and a second area across central/eastern KS associated with the cold front progressing southward. The most likely scenario will be for initially more isolated convection across western Oklahoma to increase in coverage as the cold front moves southward, with additional convection developing further eastward along the front as well into northern and central Oklahoma with time.
A lingering frontal boundary over AR will help focus another round of more widespread rain and thunder late Thursday night as a deepening mid-level trough swings through.
Upper ridging is still maintained across north MEX and TX with west-northwest flow aloft. Additionally, surface cold front will move through the region later in the day bringing in some drier air across the norther portion of the CWA by early Thursday. A surface cold front will sweep through the area this evening bringing in drier air.
408 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2022 Warmer, but still slightly below normal temperatures are expected today, with isolated showers possible this afternoon and early evening. A cyclonic northwest flow aloft regime will emerge over the Northern Plains today in between the Ontario/Hudson Bay upper low and an upper level ridge ejecting off the Northern Rockies. Highs on Thursday may only be a couple degrees warmer than today as increased cloud cover neutralizes weak warm air advection.
/issued 317 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): Mid-level ridging will continue to build over the region through the period.
A strong ridge of high pressure builds into Arizona, bringing very warm to hot temperatures through the weekend. The hottest temperatures yet this season are in store, with Excessive Heat Warnings in effect for the lower elevations.
High temps this afternoon will be warmer than yesterday; however, the region stays below 80 F with low to mid 70s F for highs.
759 AM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022 A break in the rain today as weak high pressure slides across the region. Rain returns this evening and overnight with crossing low pressure. Weak high pressure will keep most of the daylight hours quiet. An isolated storm may sneak into the far southern ridges late this afternoon. Increased sunshine will also allow for warmer temperatures. Drier air will begin to overspread the region on Thursday as a trough will setup over much of the east. Thursday will see more cloud cover as cooler air spreads across the region.
Building high pressure will push temperatures up to dangerous levels late-week and into this weekend.
At the surface we remain under a weak high pressure that is situated across the Gulf of Mexico.
433 AM MDT Wed Jun 8 2022 Current surface analysis shows a slow moving frontal boundary across northern KS and CO, with weak high pressure to the west and northwest of the area. Upper level analysis shows trough now east and southeast of the area, with jet wrapping to the south across NE and IA. A milder and drier pattern will take over for the next few days as a ridge builds over the western US and gradually shifts east over the Plains by the weekend. It will be a bit warmer today, with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Warmer air will continue to build in late week, with highs on Thursday in the 70s to around 80 degrees.
Mid level ridging securely overhead today into tomorrow with hot and dry conditions continuing. Withe low pressure to the west and northwest a bit weaker today, winds will be more in the moderate levels.
At the surface a cold front is currently south of the region in southern Kansas early Wednesday morning and will continue to push south on Wednesday.
The highest coverage looks to occur from around 4-8pm, with convective activity diminishing shortly after sunset.
529 AM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022 A break in the rain today as weak high pressure slides across the region. Rain returns this evening and overnight with crossing low pressure. Weak high pressure will keep most of the daylight hours quiet. An isolated storm may sneak into the far southern ridges late this afternoon. Increased sunshine will also allow for warmer temperatures. Drier air will begin to overspread the region on Thursday as a trough will setup over much of the east. Thursday will see more cloud cover as cooler air spreads across the region.
A very weak disturbance will be moving through the ridge of high pressure today. The ridge strengthens on Thursday allowing temperatures to warm to above normal under drier conditions.
We could see some cumulus buildups over the higher terrain with a couple sprinkles - perhaps an isolated weak storm at most in Park County. Highs return to above normal values Thursday with a shot at hitting the 90 degree mark over the lower elevations.
/issued 328 AM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022/ The sub-tropical ridge axis is extending from the Atlantic across southern Florida and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, setting up westerly low level flow through the rest of the week. Under this pattern, showers and thunderstorms will start developing over the forecast area during the early afternoon, shifting east through the afternoon and early evening, with the highest rain chances inland.
Weak surface through lower level ridging is in place across the Keys and there is some low level inhibition. There is a few clusters of showers across the forecast area, located just beyond the reef off of the Seven Mile Bridge and well south of the Dry Tortugas. Otherwise, only a few patches of light rain are found nearer the Lower and Middle Keys. Conditions are seasonably warm and humid with temperatures in the lower to mid 80s and dew points in the mid 70s. Short Term Update - Weak surface through lower level ridging will remain across the Keys. The combination of day time heating over South Florida and a near by weak ridge will result in light and broadly southerly breezes.
1047 AM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022 A break in the rain today as weak high pressure slides across the region. Rain returns this evening and overnight with crossing low pressure. Weak high pressure will keep most of the daylight hours quiet. An isolated storm may sneak into the far southern ridges late this afternoon. Drier air will begin to overspread the region on Thursday as a trough will setup over much of the east. Thursday will see more cloud cover as cooler air spreads across the region.
619 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2022 Key Messages: 1) Isolated to scattered convection possible through today as a cold front shifts through the forecast area.
A weakness in the upper ridge allows a lee-trough to develop Thursday, and winds will veer to the south by tomorrow afternoon as a warm front lifts northward over Oklahoma. Low pops were added along an area oriented form NW to SE Oklahoma tomorrow along the warm front but subsidence aloft and a strong cap should preclude any development during the day. Temperatures will be warmer tomorrow with the absence of rain, and high temperatures will rise into the 80s with 90s expected over far southwestern Oklahoma and western north Texas.
Northwesterly flow returns today at 500mb as the ridge across ID/western MT/Alberta attempts to move in through the period. Expect the showers to diminish in coverage with the loss of daytime heating, and as drier high pressure nears from the west. An elongated area of high pressure will extend from eastern MT/western ND through western SD and western NE by 18Z. Mid to upper 50s dewpoints will move into our southwestern counties, where there is a better chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms as low pressure organizes over eastern CO into western NE/KS. After that, the ridge begins to build into the area keeping things mostly dry, but evening thunder can't be completely ruled out.
Tonight, expect dry conditions with lows in the lower to mid 70s across the region.
Initially clear skies have allowed diurnal cumulus and showers to develop over northern North Dakota this afternoon, while weak flow aloft and western ridging is contributing to a poor convective environment and limited lightning potential. The low equilibrium levels should continue to keep lightning potential low but can't rule out a few isolated thunderstorms. On Thursday, another weak vort max arrives through the ridge axis and brings another chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Through the end of the week, mid-level height rises and the arrival of the building ridge axis will bring warm temperatures to the region.
A weak disturbance will move through the ridge of high pressure today. A very weak disturbance will be moving through the ridge of high pressure today. The ridge strengthens on Thursday allowing temperatures to warm to above normal under drier conditions.
253 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022 For today ridging is overhead keeping our upper level flow very light. Ridging will start to drift south of Thursday in response to a cold front that will be pushing through the southeast.
132 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022 Dry conditions will continue this afternoon before showers and storms return this evening and overnight with crossing low pressure. Dry conditions this afternoon will be followed by widespread showers and possibly thunderstorms this tonight as low pressure with relatively strong jet support cross the region. Convection should largely be east of the ridges shortly after midnight. Drier air will begin to overspread the region on Thursday while upper troughing sets up over much of the east. Thursday will see more cloud cover as cooler air spreads across the region.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Mid-level ridging building across the region through the short term period will continue to bring warm and dry weather to Deep South Texas.
342 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022 A cold front will pass through late tonight, then stall off the coast on Thursday. This Evening and Tonight: A quasi-zonal flow will prevail across the Southeast United States between a broad ridge of high pressure across the Gulf and Atlantic and a trough entering the Midwest. In general, low temps will range in the low-mid 70s. The cold front will drift through the area Thursday morning and then stall off the coast Thursday afternoon.
Can't rule out light showers near/west of the James River Valley Thursday morning, but the dry sub cloud layer will have difficulty saturating until afternoon when an inverted trough stretches higher dew points northward into the region from western NE/eastern CO. Similar to Wednesday, additional convection is likely to fire in NE/KS, blocking some of the moisture return to the region in the evening.
Conditions should clear by the early afternoon once surface winds veer to the south in response to a developing surface lee trough. Some terrain induced convection is possible once again tomorrow afternoon over the higher terrain of New Mexico but should be well west of the FA by the late afternoon. In an nutshell the mid-upper pattern will start with an upper level ridge centered near El Paso beginning to build northward over the intermountain West. The ridge then expands eastward during the first half of the weekend before shifting to the east, being replaced across the West Coast and then intermountain region by an upper level trough. The expanding upper ridge is then likely to suppress any further convective development through the weekend.
Expect low temperatures in the upper 40s and low 50s, with the majority of locations staying in the low 50s for the evening. But first, the opening gambit will be a tranquil and near seasonal Fri, as upper ridging pushes toward the forecast area, with the more pronounced trough anchored west of the the Pacific coast. A short wave rounding the top of the ridge late Fri/early Sat, aided by low level warm air advection could spark some showers or a tstm at this time, favoring the northern half of the area. Eventually the upper trough will move inland, rendering the northern plains under south to southwest flow as a closed low meanders through south central Canada. By afternoon, the sharp upper trough moves into central and eastern ND, increasing the potential for forced ascent and resultant strong to severe thunderstorms.
Eventually, the lower cigs are expected to scatter out during the evening.
1116 AM MDT Wed Jun 8 2022 Current surface analysis shows a slow moving frontal boundary across northern KS and CO, with weak high pressure to the west and northwest of the area. Upper level analysis shows trough now east and southeast of the area, with jet wrapping to the south across NE and IA. A milder and drier pattern will take over for the next few days as a ridge builds over the western US and gradually shifts east over the Plains by the weekend. It will be a bit warmer today, with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Warmer air will continue to build in late week, with highs on Thursday in the 70s to around 80 degrees.
So like a typical day with marginal instability, we'll favor the Front Range and the Cheyenne Ridge and Palmer Divide for afternoon convection. Even with the little front, temperatures will still be 5-10 degrees warmer. Skies will clear out overnight and low temperatures will be very similar to those tonight, in the 50s on the plains and 30s and 40s in the high country.
312 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022 A low pressure center and its associated cold front cross the area tonight.
---BMickelson Previous discussion: Synoptic Setup: A closed low sets over northern Ontario. Hot High pressure sets over the Desert Southwest with a weak ridge spurring north from it through central Montana and Alberta. To the west, a closed low lies off the coast British Columbia. Periodically the ridge spur weakens, allowing limited disturbances to tear off of the coastal BC low and pass through ridge over northeast Montana. This generates weak lift zones for afternoon mountain thunderstorms to latch onto and move across the high plains. Today: While the day starts off partly cloud the ridge to the west will bring increasing mid to high chinook arch clouds to the region.
A cold front will follow closely on the heels of the MCS through the area tonight. We will see something of a lull in the the nightly/morning MCS activity tonight into Thursday in the wake of the cold front. (Thursday through Wednesday) Widely scattered to scattered showers and storms will be possible on Thursday into Thursday evening as the cold front that moves through the region tonight returns back as a warm front.
The mid to upper level ridge axis from south of the Four Corners region to southeast Texas tonight will drift slowly southwest and be over the forecast area Thursday night. This boundary is expected to become stationary tonight and drift north as a warm front Thursday afternoon and evening. Southeast winds will maintain dewpoint temps in the upper 60s for the Brush Country to the lower to mid 70s over the coastal plains.
120 PM PDT Wed Jun 8 2022 Warming will continue into the weekend as an area of high pressure over the Southwest intensifies.
Why are there two centers of max pop today over Michigan? The anywhere is we have strengthening upper level wave the both closes off an upper low between 500 and 250 mb and also goes negative tilt over Michigan as it moves through. The upper low at 300 mb track near or just north of I-96. The norther part is a result of the deformation zone on the north side of the upper low that is closing off. Persistent upper low over Hudson Bay will continue to bring cool and fairly quiet weather this week.
Tomorrow, a touch cooler, particularly across the Hill Country, with highs there in the mid to upper 90s except warmer for Llano/Burnet.
1154 AM CDT Wed Jun 8 2022 (Today and tonight) Somewhat complicated setup ongoing early this morning as several areas of convection continue, with one area across the panhandles and southwest KS tied to warm air advection along the nose of the low-level jet, and a second area across central/eastern KS associated with the cold front progressing southward. The most likely scenario will be for initially more isolated convection across western Oklahoma to increase in coverage as the cold front moves southward, with additional convection developing further eastward along the front as well into northern and central Oklahoma with time.
217 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022 Low pressure over Illinois will track through the Ohio Valley tonight with showers and thunderstorms along the cold front extending into the Tennessee Valley. The front will move offshore on Thursday followed by a break in the humidity and dry weather under high pressure.
but should note the spread among the high res models in this regard. In either case, chance of storms should be over by 00z, and Thursday night will be dry underneath building ridge.
1207 PM CDT Wed Jun 8 2022 Key Messages: 1) Isolated to scattered thunderstorms today as a cold front shifts through the area.
342 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022 Low pressure will track across the Ohio Valley through this evening, promoting showers and thunderstorms. Weak high pressure will gradually build in late Thursday and Thursday night.
The upper level ridge will remain anchored over the area the next 24 hours, which will result in hot and dry weather persisting. The low level thermal ridge will be a bit weaker tomorrow, so afternoon temperatures are expected to stay below Heat Advisory levels (mainly between 97 and 102 degrees).
238 PM MDT Wed Jun 8 2022 Pleasant early summer day with light winds and comfortably warm temperatures with a ridge of high surface pressure in control over eastern Montana. Later Thursday, lingering rain showers in our eastern zones will diminish slowly as a new ridge of high pressure begins to build northward into our region.
Building high pressure will push temperatures up to dangerous levels Thursday through the weekend.