Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Highs in the 60s are expected, cooler than yesterday also. 5 to 1 inch of rain somewhere in the lower two-thirds of Michigan, right now the most likely zone would be between I-96 and M-20, but don't feel very confident in this yet. Dry air in the low levels preceding the arrival of this rain will keep the areas that do receive steadier rain quite chilly, in the upper 40s to mid 50s, while without the rain the temperatures could climb into the 60s.
As this flow weakens with a building ridge, the clouds should dissipate and leave clear skies by around 09Z. Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 60 89 68 93 / 0 10 10 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 58 87 67 90 / 0 10 10 20 40 Oak Ridge, TN 83 58 87 66 90 / 0 10 20 20 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 79 52 84 62 85 / 0 0 20 40 60.
High pressure continues over the area this evening. Tonight Through Wednesday High pressure is expected to take control of the weather pattern during the short term.
For today, temperatures expected to rise into the low to mid 80s with lows tonight dropping into the low 60s near the Tennessee River and mid to upper 60s everywhere else. As for late this evening into early Wednesday morning, an MCS looks to track across The Lower Missouri and Ohio River Valleys. Through the day Wednesday a low pressure will continue to move across the Canadian Maritime Provinces.
Upper level ridging is expected to hold into Tuesday with surface boundary dissipating. Ridging will build eastward tonight into tomorrow, becoming the dominating synoptic feature through the next few days. Ridging overhead will provide a sufficient cap, keeping shower activity at bay through the next few days. As a result, more hot and humid weather is on tap with highs topping out in the low to mid 90s once again both tomorrow and Wednesday.
Heights at 500 mb are gradually rising as the broad ridge over the Plains moves slowly east, suggesting large scale subsidence and warmer temperatures. Some locations in West TN and northeast MS could dip into the lower 50s. A relatively dry continental airmass (dewpoints in the lower 50s) will cool efficiently tonight, with clear skies and light winds. An MCS will track from the Missouri River valley into the lower Ohio River valley by sunrise Wednesday. The upper ridge will amplify slightly during the day, with surface temps reaching as high as 10 degrees above normal.
Heights and 850 mb temps will be on the upswing on Tuesday so should see high temps a good 5 to 10 degrees warmer compared to today. Given the location of the warm front by afternoon and the phasing of some mid level feeders, a rather notable cap will begin to give way, particularly across northern middle TN into KY.
Temps are expected to be a bit warmer than yesterday as we see good heating from sunny skies. This would occur along a warm front that should settle toward our northern CWA. There will also be ample low-level moisture in place as dew points climb into the low/mid 60s and PWAT values range from 1.
Most of the activity will be around the higher terrain. The decreasing heights and and increased cloudiness, temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday, in the lower 70s for highs. Wednesday will be somewhat of a quiet day ahead of a trough moving in from the west. Temperatures should remain similar to today, with highs in the lower 70s.
dry and hot days, with muggy and warm nights continue as ridging dominates aloft. While a few weak disturbances are progged to border the eastern periphery of the ridge through the period, lack of deep moisture availability (PWATs at or below 1.
The associated cold front pushes just south of the CWA by midday Wednesday, with precipitation chances ending, albeit post-frontal cloud cover may persist.
317 AM EDT Tue May 17 2022 Dry weather returns today under high pressure, but rain is back in the forecast for mid week. High pressure will become the dominant weather feature across the area. Cooler temps and mainly clear skies over the Allegheny National Forest will lead to some patchy frost concerns tonight. Showers chances will persist into Wednesday night with sustained instability leading to thunderstorms possible as well with the approach of stronger forcing from a cold front.
249 AM EDT Tue May 17 2022 Seasonably cooler and drier conditions will return for tonight through Wednesday. Warmer and more humid air will return to the region later this week.
1217 AM PDT Tue May 17 2022 Dry weather continues across the region today as high pressure starts to rebuild.
348 AM EDT Tue May 17 2022 Seasonably cooler and drier conditions with significantly less humidity will prevail through midweek.
These clouds will push eastward and diminish as a cold frontal boundary continues to makes its way off the coast. Lows this morning range from the upper 50s across the northwest Midlands into the low 60s in the CSRA and eastern Midlands toward the coastal plain. Clear skies dominate with upper troughing moving off the shore and northwest flow aloft settling in for the time being.
252 AM CDT Tue May 17 2022 (Issued 252 AM CDT Tue May 17 2022) Today through Wednesday: High pressure continues to build into the area from the north this morning, bringing a cool and clear start to the day. ) within about 10 miles of Lake Michigan, where early lake breeze development will keep readings in the low 60s.
102 AM EDT Tue May 17 2022 High pressure and dry weather today and tonight.
The weak ridging should be sufficient to keep convection largely isolated on Wednesday, and the general lack of a synoptic gradient enabling both the Gulf and Atlantic breezes to push inland, and consequently suspect that any convection that does develop should be focused over the interior. Given the light synoptic winds and warming temperatures aloft, high temperatures on Wednesday will run a few degrees above normal, ranging from the upper 80s along the immediate east coast to the low to mid 90s elsewhere).
This will drive a back door cold front through our area during the evening, which will become stationary along the southern edges of our CWA overnight. With the front sitting along our southern border, there will be a wide range of temperatures for Tuesday with highs in the lower to mid 60s over southwestern MN to mid and upper 70s south of Interstate 90. Any showers and thunderstorms move off to the east by Wednesday, leading to a dry and slightly warmer day with highs in the mid 70s to near 80. A cold front slides through the area by afternoon, and the GFS continues to produce thunderstorms over south central SD during the evening, though it is the only model that does so, thus the forecast remains dry.
Discussion: Quiet weather day expected across the area as we currently sit under a building mid level ridge, with drier northwest flow near the surface.
Northwest flow aloft will prevail across the TN Valley overnight in the wake of an upper-level trough lifting northeastward over southern Quebec, and this will maintain dry conditions. The continental high pressure system will move eastward over the next couple of days, keeping the area in northerly flow for tomorrow. However, as the high slides farther to the east into the Mid-Atlantic, sfc winds will begin to return from the S-SW allowing for increased warmth and an uptick in low-lvl moisture/humidity. Low pressure developing in the Srn High Plains will lead to a strengthening pressure gradient and increased wind speeds with some gustiness developing Wednesday afternoon. A plume of warmer air originating from the Srn High Plains and elevated plateau of the SW will be forced eastward across the TN Valley on Wednesday.
120 AM MST Tue May 17 2022 Temperatures will cool slightly the remainder of the week as high pressure relaxes over the region. A more robust northern stream wave will amplify across the northern/central Rockies late in the week with a trailing trough axis sweeping towards the four corners. A handful of GEFS members suggest a deeper PV anomaly becoming established towards the trough base, however the vast majority of ensemble membership suggests only a glancing influence with a brief tightening of the lower level baroclinicity and pressure gradient.
Otherwise, much cooler air will overspread the region in the wake of a cold front with temperatures today struggling to reach 60. Temps have already fallen into the lower 40s over parts of Southern Tier. Eventually, temps that are in the lower 50s most other areas will settle into the 40s as reinforcing cold front arrives from the northwest. Zonal flow develops over the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday with a warm front developing into the Ohio Valley. Weak mid level wave working into the area could bring scattered showers north of the warm front, especially later in the day.
408 AM CDT Tue May 17 2022 High pressure will continue to build over the area today. It should be a little warmer than yesterday, with highs climbing back into the lower to mid 80s. High pressure will move northeast into the Mid-Atlantic states tonight. This should keep lows a bit warmer in the upper 50s to lower 60s around daybreak on Wednesday.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): Mid-level ridging anchored over northeast Mexico and south Texas will maintain hot days, warm nights, and rain-free conditions through the period. At the surface, high pressure across the central Gulf of Mexico will support moderate to breezy south to southeast winds. Highs will range from the lower 80s at the beaches, the low to mid 90s across the Lower Rio Grande Valley and the upper 90s to the triple digits along and west of the I-69C/U. Lows tonight are expected to fall to around 70 across the northern Ranchlands and the Brush Country to the low to mid 70s along the Rio Grande River and near the coast.
604 AM EDT Tue May 17 2022 Seasonably cooler and drier conditions with significantly less humidity will prevail through midweek.
WAA, from light southerly winds, was keeping temperatures warmer than recent mornings (mid to upper 60s for most).
A mean upper level trough over eastern portions of the Southeast moves off as an upper ridge over the Southern Plains moves east to over the Southeast. Areas over the Lower Mississippi River Valley see a more consistent onshore flow, keeping moisture levels higher as a dry cold front pushes south over the eastern half of the Southeast, ushering in drier air over the the eastern half of the forecast area and points east.
505 AM EDT Tue May 17 2022 Seasonably cooler and drier conditions with significantly less humidity will prevail through midweek.
1024 AM EDT Tue May 17 2022 Temperatures are running a bit warmer than forecast this morning. Given the mainly full day of sunshine, will bump up the highs a degree or so, with most locations making it to at least 80 degrees. The short term period will start off warm and dry around eastern Kentucky, as a ridge of high pressure remains in control of area weather. We will see showers and a few storms moving into the area on Wednesday, as an area of low pressure moves out way out of the central Plains. Tonights lows will range from the lower 50s in our valleys to the mid and upper 50s on the ridges. Initially, a cold front will be advancing southeast through the Midwest, with warm air advection occurring ahead of it over our area.
529 AM EDT Tue May 17 2022 The short term period will start off warm and dry around eastern Kentucky, as a ridge of high pressure remains in control of area weather. We will see showers and a few storms moving into the area on Wednesday, as an area of low pressure moves out way out of the central Plains. Tonights lows will range from the lower 50s in our valleys to the mid and upper 50s on the ridges. Initially, a cold front will be advancing southeast through the Midwest, with warm air advection occurring ahead of it over our area.
524 AM EDT Tue May 17 2022 Dry weather returns today under high pressure, but rain is back in the forecast for mid week. High pressure will become the dominant weather feature across the area. Cooler temps and mainly clear skies over the Allegheny National Forest will lead to some patchy frost concerns tonight. Showers chances will persist into Wednesday night with sustained instability leading to thunderstorms possible as well with the approach of stronger forcing from a cold front.
Temperatures will cool slightly the remainder of the week as high pressure relaxes over the region. A more robust northern stream wave will amplify across the northern/central Rockies late in the week with a trailing trough axis sweeping towards the four corners. A handful of GEFS members suggest a deeper PV anomaly becoming established towards the trough base, however the vast majority of ensemble membership suggests only a glancing influence with a brief tightening of the lower level baroclinicity and pressure gradient.
Mid level ridge axis shifts across the region today with a more westerly (warmer) flow setting up by tomorrow. Temperatures today and Wednesday will range from around 104 west to the lower 90s east.
Deep layer stability held within a very dry airmass will govern conditions today, as surface ridging drifts beneath confluent mid level northwest flow. Full insolation aside from some late diurnal cu works to offset a noticeably cooler resident thermal profile /h85 temps of single digits/.
(Today through Wednesday afternoon) The dryline has retreated into SE NM-western PB-Lower Trans Pecos with a shrtwv trof evident in the mid-level flow along with mstr entrained in long fetch sw aloft. Low temps Wed AM will be a few degrees cooler than this morning, but still well above normal most areas. A weak front will be located just n of CWFA Wed PM and the low-level thermal ridge will be INVOF front with widespread 30C 85h temps across the PB.
The short term period will start off warm and dry around eastern Kentucky, as a ridge of high pressure remains in control of area weather. We will see showers and a few storms moving into the area on Wednesday, as an area of low pressure moves out way out of the central Plains. Tonights lows will range from the lower 50s in our valleys to the mid and upper 50s on the ridges. Initially, a cold front will be advancing southeast through the Midwest, with warm air advection occurring ahead of it over our area.
Look for dew points to drop into the low to mid 50s in northern Mississippi, creating a much less humid day. /30/ Prior discussion below: Today and tonight: Last evening's shower activity has pushed southeast of the area as a cold front makes slow southward progress into the region this morning. Behind it, dewpoints have fallen into the lower 60s and even upper 50s in parts of north MS.
Just above the boundary layer we remain under the influence of a sharp, weak trough that extends up to about 500 mb. This feature is becoming increasingly cut off from the parent trough located up near Hudson Bay in eastern Canada. To the west a ridge is pushing east across the Central Plains and is helping to nudge this persistent trough out of our area. Due to a combination of weakening influence of the trough, light and variable surface flow, and decreasing moisture, have opted to keep PoPs only at slight chances(20 percent). In addition, winds will continue to remain light and variable until ridging across the Atlantic builds back into the area. Expect generally light to gentle breezes to persist into Wednesday until a ridge over the Atlantic builds back westward across the Florida Keys.
453 AM MDT Tue May 17 2022 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over northwest NE, with cool front stretching west across southeast WY. Another cold front is located from eastern MT to central WY. An occasionally unsettled pattern is expected for much of the forecast period, especially through late this week, as a series of disturbances and cold fronts cross the region in active west- northwest flow.
The latest CAMS support development over Holt county, southwestward along the advancing cold front into Custer and Frontier county. Have delayed mention of POPS until early afternoon with the highest POPS late afternoon/early evening across the southeast and 20 to 30 pops across the western Sandhills and southwest. The best chances for storms will be ahead of the advancing cold front. Skies will clear out late evening and overnight tonight with weak high pressure building in. On Wednesday, An upper trough will move from the Northern Plains into the western Great Lakes and bring a westerly downslope wind during the afternoon. A few storms may develop across northern Nebraska late afternoon near a weak cold front and also over the southern panhandle and northeast CO.
In the upper levels, a longwave ridge was placed over the Northern Plains this morning while a speed max was running over the ridge axis. Though surface dew points of 45-50 F will be on the low end for stronger thunderstorms, decently steep mid-level lapse rates and 25 to 30 kts of effective shear may produce a few isolated hail and wind gusts that approach severe criteria.
Breezy winds and warmer interior temperatures can be expected today and tomorrow.
The mid level ridging (700-500mb) is parked over the Hill Country this morning and southerly LL flow.
Currently we see lower 70s for TX and LA sites with the cooler temps stretching from DeQueen to Ruston in the low to mid 60s. The upper ridge is driving some precip E/NE for hours yet this morning along the OK red river. Highs today will average in the lower 90s and edging a few mid 90s in the picture on Wednesday.
310 AM MDT Tue May 17 2022 Current surface analysis shows low pressure over northwest NE, with cool front stretching west across southeast WY. Another cold front is located from eastern MT to central WY. An occasionally unsettled pattern is expected for much of the forecast period, especially through late this week, as a series of disturbances and cold fronts cross the region in active west- northwest flow.
By Wednesday night another trough moves into the area bringing unsettled conditions and below normal temperatures lasting through the end of the week.
High pressure will continue to build over the area today. It should be a little warmer than yesterday, with highs climbing back into the lower to mid 80s. High pressure will move northeast into the Mid-Atlantic states tonight. This should keep lows a bit warmer in the upper 50s to lower 60s around daybreak on Wednesday.
A deeper trough develops later in the week but remains mostly to our north.
A cold front will move through the TAF sites between 03Z and 10Z with north winds in its wake. No precipitation is expected with this cold frontal passage.
650 AM EDT Tue May 17 2022 Dry weather returns today under high pressure, but rain is back in the forecast for mid week. Otherwise, high pressure will become the dominant weather feature across the area. Cooler temps and mainly clear skies over the Allegheny National Forest will lead to some patchy frost concerns tonight. Showers chances will persist into Wednesday night with sustained instability leading to thunderstorms possible as well with the approach of stronger forcing from a cold front.
955 AM EDT Tue May 17 2022 Stalled front to the north and ridge axis to the south will produce a weaker low level offshore flow today. This should keep rain chances on the low side, with only a 20 percent chance of showers and storms as the sea breeze begins to push inland toward mid afternoon. With a weak mid-level trough keeping temps cool aloft (-9C to -10C at 500mb) and drier air above the surface, can't completely rule out an isolated stronger storm or two, producing frequent lightning, gusty winds to 40 to 45 mph and small hail. Tempo IFR/MVFR conditions will occur with convection, but with rain chances on the lower side, have not included any tempo groups yet.
/DL/ Today and tonight: Last evening's shower activity has pushed southeast of the area as a cold front makes slow southward progress into the region this morning. Behind it, dewpoints have fallen into the lower 60s and even upper 50s in parts of north MS.
539 AM EDT Tue May 17 2022 Seasonably cooler and drier conditions with significantly less humidity will prevail through midweek.
Overall, sunny skies will continue throughout the day with highs climbing into the low to mid 80s. High pressure will move northeast into the Mid-Atlantic states tonight. This should keep lows a bit warmer in the upper 50s to lower 60s around daybreak on Wednesday.
Winds will be breezy this afternoon as well, 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph mainly for the Snake River plain and ridgetops.
Very warm temperatures along with very limited rain chances will be on tap for the short term given the flat mid/upper ridge in place a- cross the region. Lows tonight and tomorrow night are going to range from the lower to mid 70s for most inland locations to the upper 70s at the beaches.
This high is expected to remain over the area through tonight and keep rather benign weather conditions for the CWA.
218 PM EDT Tue May 17 2022 Relatively dry high pressure will remain over the area into Wednesday.
High pressure has built in the wake of an upper trough departing the east coast. Luckily, subsidence from the upper ridge aloft will keep things in check this afternoon, but given steep mid-level lapse rates along the coast dry air aloft a few storms capable of gusty winds and some small hail cannot be ruled out. The upper ridge will then slowly begin to elongate eastward across the area brining increased subsidence on Wednesday leaving us with clear skies and no apparent chance of rain. The main issue will be the heat as temperatures on Wednesday will likely climb into the low to mid 90s once again.
Current surface analysis shows low pressure over northwest NE, with cool front stretching west across southeast WY. Another cold front is located from eastern MT to central WY. An occasionally unsettled pattern is expected for much of the forecast period, especially through late this week, as a series of disturbances and cold fronts cross the region in active west- northwest flow.
Temperatures are running a bit warmer than forecast this morning. Given the mainly full day of sunshine, will bump up the highs a degree or so, with most locations making it to at least 80 degrees. The short term period will start off warm and dry around eastern Kentucky, as a ridge of high pressure remains in control of area weather. We will see showers and a few storms moving into the area on Wednesday, as an area of low pressure moves out way out of the central Plains. Tonights lows will range from the lower 50s in our valleys to the mid and upper 50s on the ridges. Lingering showers and possibly a rumble of thunder will be possible as a cold front slowly exits the region to start the period.
A warming trend will continue into Wednesday as high pressure builds.
243 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022 Tonight and Wednesday: Warmer than normal and dry through the period. Morning lows will continue warmer than normal as well only bottoming out in the upper 60d to lower 70s.
235 PM MDT Tue May 17 2022 Warm, high pressure has moved into the region from the west and pushed any lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms eastward in the Dakotas.
The more intense storms should occur on preferential southwest flank of an evolving MCS where cold pool interacts with the low-level jet, and theta-e advection/instability are higher.
Thunderstorms have been focused through our lower NE and IA counties for much of the afternoon, and outflow from the storms have pushed the warm front well south of our CWA. On Wednesday, low pressure sliding along the U.
Toward the surface, high pressure was analyzed over Middle Tennessee while the forecast area was positioned between two fronts, one becoming stationary across the Northern Gulf Coast and a cold front extending from Southern Iowa east into Southwest Pennsylvania. Dry conditions in the lower level will keep skies mostly sunny this afternoon with only a few mid to high clouds across the far south and far west. Lows will range from the mid 50s east to the low 60s southwest. Highs will range from the lower 90s north and northeast to the mid 90s south.
304 PM EDT Tue May 17 2022 Cold front will move south of the area this evening. High pressure will build over the area tonight into early Wednesday.