Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An area of dense cirrus will cross the forecast area this morning with cloud cover expected to decrease this afternoon due to subsidence associated with the building upper ridge. High temperatures today will be only slightly cooler than yesterday, mainly in the upper 50s to the upper 60s. Tonight will be partly cloudy with light winds and lows in the lower 30s to lower 40s. The upper ridge will shift off to the east on Wednesday as the upper trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. Clouds will increase ahead of the approaching upper system which will tend to keep temperatures a bit cooler over northeastern Wyoming and northwestern South Dakota. Disturbances rounding the upper trough will bring a chance of precipitation to northeastern Wyoming and far western South Dakota Wednesday night.
plenty of sunshine again today beneath a warm upper level ridge. Upper flow starts to shift to the southwest tonight as a developing upper level trough moves into the pacific northwest. High temperatures in the low to mid 70s. High clouds slowly increase in coverage as the upper trough slowly continues on a southeast track toward the intermountain west. The leading edge of cooler air and higher boundary layer moisture pushes into our Nebraska counties in the 09z- 12z timeframe.
Current surface analysis places high pressure over the Great Basin into the central/southern plains, while low pressure trough dips through the southern prairie provinces into the northern plains. Upper level analysis places deep trough over the eastern Pacific with flat ridging over much of the western conus. A few weak waves moving through the ridge continue to produce occasional cloud cover and a couple light showers over northern Montana. short wave slides east with ridging building back into the area resulting in clearing skies with mild temperatures. deep Pacific trough pushes onshore and scurries across the Great Basin while flow shifts southwesterly over our area. Temperatures remain mild, though a few light showers may develop as some weak waves lift up the front of the trough.
Amplitude will increase the next few days as a significant trough progresses across the West, while ridging increases in the East. A major cyclone is expected to develop and cross the Great Lakes region as the western trough progresses through the middle of the country late in the week/early in the weekend, then the flow will begin to deamplify again. Estimating precipitation is trickier despite having a major cyclone headed toward the region. The significant precipitation in the comma head of the cyclone is almost certain to pass northwest of the area. Continued with clouds for Tuesday as another mid level short wave passes and a cold front approaches the area from the northwest.
345 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016 High pressure will settle back into the region today and tonight as mid level ridging commences. Surface winds will turn more southerly on the back side of the high Wed/Thu, and a significant warming trend will also take place.
339 AM EST Tue Nov 15 2016 Low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will move east and an associated weak cold front will move across the area tonight.
357 AM EST Tue Nov 15 2016 Cyclonic flow aloft will prevail over the Carolinas today, in association with a broad upper level trough over the eastern United States. Northwest flow aloft will develop late tonight and Wednesday as an amplified upper level ridge over the Rockies expands east across the Central Plains toward the Mississippi river valley. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Lower Ms Valley/Northern Gulf Coast States will shift east over the area.
1145 PM CST Mon Nov 14 2016 The dry and warm weather conditions will continue this period across Kansas as the upper level ridge amplifies across the central plains.
High pressure will maintain unseasonably warm and dry conditions through Wednesday.
The eastern CONUS trough has cleared the mid/upper level clouds across most of the region this afternoon. At the surface, weak ridging prevails with light northerly winds. Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 40s inland, and around 50 degrees nearer to the coast. Upper level troughing over the eastern half of the states Tuesday will push off the Atlantic coast Wednesday night. At the lower levels, high pressure will prevail over the northern Gulf coast for the next couple days.
High An area of stratus associated with colder temps aloft behind a trough continues to approach from the southwest. Medium An upper ridge begins to build across the plains and Upper Mississippi Valley, as a strong trough crosses the west coast of the U. A ridge of high pressure moves across the Mississippi Valley Tuesday night and reaches the Great Lakes Wednesday afternoon.
333 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016 An upper-level high pressure ridge will slide east from the desert southwest toward West Texas today. At the surface, a weak trough extending from KS southwestward to the srn South Plains has brought light westerly winds to the forecast area this morning. As the trough moves off to the east, our winds will gradually turn southerly in response to lee troughing developing to our north and west.
1146 PM CST Mon Nov 14 2016 A weak cold front is currently crossing the forecast area, with little fanfare as was anticipated. 20z/2pm surface analysis shows a weak cold front extending from near Madison, Wisconsin to just east of Kansas City, Missouri. The airmass ahead of the boundary remains quite dry, although surface dewpoints have risen slightly into the lower to middle 40s across central Illinois this afternoon.
331 AM EST Tue Nov 15 2016 Early this morning light rain showers associated with a passing trough were putting down measurable precip over western KY and into northwest TN. Period of Above Normal Temperatures This Week Then Much Colder Upper level ridging will strengthen over the Ohio Valley Thu/Fri.
354 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016 Another cool morning across the forecast area as a weak cold front is expected to move across the region today. High pressure then builds in quickly after the front on Wednesday and with little to no temperature cool down behind the front.
Current Situation and Analysis -- An upper-level composite analysis early this morning reveals increasing cyclonic flow and falling geopotential heights over most of the Gulf basin and Florida Peninsula, in advance of a slowly amplifying and equatorward-moving large-scale trough. A near- surface confluent asymptote over the Straits of Florida is supporting a broken band of showers, where the higher-energy boundary layer atop the Gulf Stream is yielding a slightly more unstable atmosphere. Rapid clearing will occur Wednesday morning as the trough axis shifts through the area, and a deep layer of dry air moves in.
Dry and cooler than normal temps with max temps this afternoon in the lower to middle 70s.
1139 PM CST Mon Nov 14 2016 A weak cold front will push through the area this evng. plus 850 temps are a little warmer.
Enhanced lift from upper level jet across the state and weak isentropic lift behind cold front south of Florida will continue to produce light showers and sprinkles across Okeechobee County and Treasure coast today. Highs are expected to reach the mid 70s over much of the area today, with temperatures then falling into the low to mid 50s overnight. Mid level trough axis is forecast to sweep across the area early Wed and scour out lingering clouds and moisture across the Treasure coast.
324 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016 High pressure in control this morning over northeast Kansas with generally dry northwest flow aloft. Given the setup being similar to yesterday with perhaps a bit more sunshine should result in highs trending a few degrees warmer into the lower 70s. Skies remain clear with overnight temperatures dropping to the lower 40s.
1254 AM EST Tue Nov 15 2016 A weak pressure trough will cross the region on Tuesday afternoon and evening, resulting in a brief increase in cloud cover and humidity. High pressure will re-establish itself on Wednesday behind this system, and control the weather pattern until the weekend.
As such, with appreciable moisture drawn into the strengthening warm front and isentropic ascent. The 00z NAM placed this axis stretching from Sandpoint to Moses Lake and Mission Ridge just south of Wenatchee while the GFS is more progressive and places the heaviest axis across Hwy 20 southward into the Central Panhandle Mtns of Idaho. The DOT site is currently below freezing as are the road temps so snow will be sticking to the roads as precipitation moves into overnight. Rain will come to an end or at least transition to showers with passage of cold front 16-18z bringing a burst of westerly winds and potential for a few hours of wind gusts 30-45 mph.
Short term models like the HRRR have some developing precip along the upper vort max and cold front crossing the TN river around 09Z-12Z this morning, but have kept things dry for now as current shower activity is more isolated than models currently show. Adjusted temperatures slightly to better match cloud cover this evening, with colder temps over the Plateau and slightly warmer as you move westward. 850 mbar trough axis extending down through southern Illinois, western Arkansas into eastern Texas.
326 AM EST Tue Nov 15 2016 High pressure at the surface remains the dominant weather feature across the region early this morning. A weak upper-trough will swing into the eastern Tennessee Valley this afternoon and evening.
Weak warm air advection on west winds develops over the boundary layer tonight, with a weak cold front moving in late in the day. The overnight warm air advection should provide an even warmer day Tuesday despite light southwest winds and some more periods of cirrus and have temps on the warm end of guidance. On Wednesday an upper ridge will build eastward over the center of the country, which will allow warming temperatures to spread into the central plains.
/issued 245 PM CST Mon Nov 14 2016/ WV imagery shows a weak upper trough passing thru West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, w/light northerly flow at the sfc. For tonight, the NAM is trending warmer at KMRF/KE38, whereas the GFS is trending colder. Otherwise, the upper ridge building in from the west will continue to do so, courtesy of an incoming Pac trough that will make landfall on the west coast Wednesday morning. Thicknesses will be on the increase thru Wednesday afternoon as the ridge moves thru, w/temps climbing to near 80 many locations Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.
335 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016 A weak cold front. Lows tonight around 40 again as another weak cold front drags into the area late in the night. Winds will go through a series of gentle shifts as well over the upcoming day with WNW shifting to SW ahead of the next front/trough. Generally clear skies other than some patchy morning fog today in relatively moist low level air mass with good radiational cooling conditions due to clear skies aloft behind the cold front.
Mid and high clouds persist on the periphery of the low pressure center just off of the Mid-Atlantic coast. A spoke of deeper moisture is generating very spotty light rain along the southeastern ridges, and have very low PoPs persisting here for a few more hours. Building ridge of high pressure will erode remaining cloud cover Wednesday, and ultimately bring dry conditions through the remainder of the week. The broad ridge will be further bolstered by digging trough in the western U.
Another weak disturbance will bring a chance of showers to NW Pennsylvania as well as a brief reinforcing shot of cooler air Wednesday. Temperatures will moderate once again by the end of the week as a ridge of high pressure returns to the eastern US. Low pressure system moves into New England with decreasing clouds and pops west to east leading to a pleasant afternoon with temperatures again several degrees over average. The progressive pattern will result in a big ridge returning for the end of the week along with moderating temperatures.
326 AM EST Tue Nov 15 2016 Upper level low exits northern mountains by dawn.
As the high moves east, winds shift to southeast with another weak trough expected to pass over the area Wednesday.
As such, with appreciable moisture drawn into the strengthening warm front and isentropic ascent. The 00z NAM placed this axis stretching from Sandpoint to Moses Lake and Mission Ridge just south of Wenatchee while the GFS is more progressive and places the heaviest axis across Hwy 20 southward into the Central Panhandle Mtns of Idaho. The DOT site is currently below freezing as are the road temps so snow will be sticking to the roads as precipitation moves into overnight. /sb 00Z TAFS: The cold front that moved through the area today has now stalled along the OR/WA border. The cold front will get kicked back to the north tonight in response to another disturbance that will move through the region Tuesday morning.
/issued 238 PM CST Mon Nov 14 2016/ Our area will remain on the backside of an approaching bulge of upper level high pressure through Tuesday with dry subsident conditions dominating. 850 millibar temperatures tomorrow versus today look slightly warmer, and we boosted highs for tomorrow another degree or two to near 80 on the Caprock and lower 80s across the Rolling Plains. Heights will begin to fall on Wednesday in advance of the strengthening upper level trough to the west.
1211 AM EST Tue Nov 15 2016 A crossing upper low will spawn clouds for part of the region tonight, but generally dry weather can be expected until a front approaches early on Wednesday. Mid/upper level low pressure will trundle across the region this evening. The primary impact will be fairly extensive mid/upper cloudiness; however, some light rain along the eastern ridge slopes cannot be ruled out; hence, small PoPs were retained for those immediate areas. Overall dry weather will continue into Tuesday night, but a northern stream trough/cold front is projected across the Northern Plains today, and over the Upper Ohio Region by early Wednesday. Warm advection in advance of that trough will modify Tuesday temperature about 5 degrees above the averages, but cold frontal passage will temper that surge back toward the averages on Wednesday.
Short term models like the HRRR have some developing precip along the upper vort max and cold front crossing the TN river around 09Z-12Z this morning, but have kept things dry for now as current shower activity is more isolated than models currently show. Adjusted temperatures slightly to better match cloud cover this evening, with colder temps over the Plateau and slightly warmer as you move westward. Upper trough swinging across the area with frontal system in Missouri and Arkansas heading this way.
Although they will trend a bit cooler, temperatures should remain near or somewhat above average through Wednesday.
Strong high pressure aloft will bring well above normal temperatures today, with highs approaching or exceeding records at some locations.
1020 PM MST Mon Nov 14 2016 An upper level high center will move from over srn CA this evening, to over the srn NM border by Tuesday evening, with the upper ridge axis shifting eastward over CO. Highs on Tue over the southeast plains will be around 20 degrees above average, with around 15 degrees above average in the high valley locations.
A low pressure system will bring rain and mountain snow late tonight, and showers with breezy conditions on Tuesday.
437 AM EST Tue Nov 15 2016 A weak low pressure system will move up the east coast today. Although they will trend a bit cooler, temperatures will remain near or somewhat above average through Wednesday. On Wednesday, a weak surface trof and upper level feature will move through the region bringing the possibility of a light shower. Highs will range from the lower to middle 50s.
908 PM MST Mon Nov 14 2016 Weak warm front moving into southwest Montana and northwest Wyoming beginning to disrupt favorable pressure gradients for strong winds in the gap flow areas. Do expect pressure gradients to increase again on Tuesday afternoon as another leeside trough becomes established but current local wind guidance indicates winds will be a bit weaker. Gusty winds this afternoon a result of the combination of lee side troffing and mixing of 40-50 kt mid level flow. Next Pacific wave will lift mainly north of us Tuesday night and Wednesday, but Pacific moisture plume and shift in surface winds will bring a greater chance of showers to the lower elevations, especially by Wednesday as frontogenesis increases ahead of next deeper Pacific trof. Wednesday will be cooler and closer to normal, signaling the beginning of a pattern shift.
Cooler air will slowly filter in overnight with some patchy dense fog based on site near Mineola. The weak cold front is draping over our extreme NW tier of counties and will slowly seep Eastward overnight bringing the potential fog machine in tow, and merging into the higher dew points feeding up from the South.
317 AM EST Tue Nov 15 2016 An upper level low and an associated area of low pressure will lift northeast away from the area tonight, followed by another upper level trough on Tuesday. An upper level ridge then will build east over the region. Have used low level thicknesses to get forecast highs given little thermal advection, which are on the warmer side of statistical guidance, 64-67. Weak winds and mostly clear skies will allow for strong radiational for at least the first half of the night, with a light wind after midnight as the the upper trough moves overhead and the MSLP gradient tightens a little. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Lower Ms Valley/Northern Gulf Coast States will shift east over the area.
The weak cold front that moved through yesterday appears to be stalled out across our far southeast counties where there is a distinct boundary in the moisture fields and a slight temperature gradient. Dry northwest flow aloft will prevail today as mid level heights continue to rise indicative of ridging building into the region. Highs will be in the lower 80s areawide which is 10-15 degrees above average for this time of year. a strong upper trough will be moving through the western U.
An approaching cold front will bring gusty winds on Wednesday and Wednesday night.
332 AM EST Tue Nov 15 2016 A weak low pressure system will move up the east coast today. Although they will trend a bit cooler, temperatures will remain near or somewhat above average through Wednesday. On Wednesday, a weak surface trof and upper level feature will move through the region bringing the possibility of a light shower. Highs will range from the lower to middle 50s. An upper level trough will dominate the weather early in the period. For Tuesday night, any rain over eastern areas quickly tapers off in the evening as low pressure moves north from near Long Island into New England. Wednesday will be overall mostly cloudy with a few showers around, mainly over central NY, as the aforementioned trough moves through. Highs will be mostly in the low to mid 50s.
79 A weak cold front has passed through the Metroplex and continues to make eastward progress towards Corsicana, Waco, and Goldthwaite this evening. /ISSUED 351 PM CST Mon Nov 14 2016/ A weak cold front that extended southeast of a Gainesville to Comanche line as of 3 PM will move southeastward though the rest of the forecast area during the rest of the afternoon through the evening hours. Winds will back to the southwest during the afternoon as lee side trough starts to develop. In the wake of an exiting upper level trough and ahead of a large upper level trough that will be moving into the west coast, an upper level ridge currently over the southwest will move eastward across Texas by Wednesday.
High pressure will bring an increase in afternoon high temperatures Tuesday.
As the upper level trough departs east away from the region, an upper level ridge moves east towards the region. At the surface, there is a high pressure system to our north that will begin to move east towards the Mid-Atlantic states, but low level flow will remain mainly northerly through the period for now. A considerable dewpoint gradient exists across the area with Albany showing values in the upper 50s and the Gulf Coast showing values in the lower 70s.
1130 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016 Deep ridging is currently moving across the northern Rockies this afternoon and will continue to cross into the northern and central Plains through the latter half of the work week.
Temperatures today were warmest across north central areas where stronger southerly winds were able to mix the warmer temps down with readings reaching the lower 90s. Another weak impulse embedded within the ridge aloft may once again produce scattered storms over the western high plains and CO Rockies later this evening. Similar conditions expected Thursday as warm southerly air builds north and east into the CWA underneath the ridging aloft. Previous trends with temps today being slightly warmer than guidance lead to bumping highs to the lower and middle 90s.
Otherwise, will be a warm night, with lows in the lower to mid 60s. Ensemble probability of lower ceilings and fog remain fairly low, and have not included any in the forecast at this point, even close to where convectively aided convergence near warm front lingers near southwest Minnesota. Increased humidity will bring the heat index to the mid to upper 90s over southeast South Dakota into the lower Missouri valley.
1230 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2016 High pressure will build in from the west tonight and persist through the end of the week.
Low temperatures will be a bit cooler than last night inland due to drier air with lows in the mid/upper 60s across SE Ga to the lower 70s across inland NE Fl and the Atlantic coast. Light winds with trough axis stalled across the area.
727 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2016 A through of low pressure over Lake Okeechobee will remain nearly stationary tonight keeping the deep tropical moisture in place over South Florida.
High pressure aloft will continue to dominate for the next 24 hours. (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) An upper high will shift northeast across the Four Corners area Thursday night.
Favorable radiational cooling conditions will support min temps about as cool as this morning, with most locations in the lower/mid 50s and a few spots dipping into the 40s. Record lows appear to be safe as the official reporting sites should all be toward the warmer end of the range. Thursday night will depend on the southward progress of the MCS expected to develop on the warm front in southern Wisconsin.
For tomorrow we see the pattern change continue with southwesterly low level winds and the hot upper ridge beginning to build in.
639 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016 Upper heights should rise thru the end of the week as a substantial ridge becomes established over the cntrl CONUS. Guidance appears to be a touch cooler but still expect highs from the mid 80s across sthrn IL and SE MO to near 90 across cntrl and NE MO into w cntrl IL.
A cold front pushing through after 09/0200z will cause a wind shift late this evening. With current hot and relatively moist atmosphere will come the chance for strong thunderstorms in southwest flow ahead of low pressure which is currently spinning off the West Coast. A cold front is expected to shift across north central Idaho late this afternoon and into western Montana during the evening. The cold front will produce increasing winds, but also help enhance some of the prior discussed thunderstorms. A cooler air mass should cover the northern Rockies Thursday.
701 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2016 High pressure remains dominant over Central Illinois this evening and into the overnight hours. Warm southerly winds pick up on the back side of ridge later tonight. Upper level ridging from the High Plains into the Canadian Rockies will flatten a bit, but at the same time, will build toward the Midwest.