Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO CONVERT THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO A WIND ADVISORY AND EXTEND FURTHER INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE DECIDED TO REPLACE THE HIGH WIND WARNING WITH A WIND ADVISORY IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA AND KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING IN PLACE ELSEWHERE. THE DAYSHIFT CAN RE-EVALUATE WHETHER TO REPLACE THE HIGH WIND WARNING WITH A WIND ADVISORY THEREAFTER.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST BY LATE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
250 PM EST THU NOV 19 2015 A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST OVER NORTH FLORIDA RESULTING IN RELAXING BREEZES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. ISOLATED SHOWERS PERSISTS OVER THE STRAITS AND HAWK CHANNEL SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS.
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME 24 HOURS AGO DUE TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE YESTERDAY AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. WE ARE ON TRACK TO WARM UP TO SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S TODAY. DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.
ISSUED BY CHARLESTON WV 1105 AM EST THU NOV 19 2015 SECONDARY COLD FRONT OR TROF SWINGING EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL KY NEAR SDF AND WESTERN OHIO AT 16Z.
REPLACED THE HIGH WIND WARNING WITH A WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 21 UTC. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO CONVERT THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO A WIND ADVISORY AND EXTEND FURTHER INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE DECIDED TO REPLACE THE HIGH WIND WARNING WITH A WIND ADVISORY IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA AND KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING IN PLACE ELSEWHERE. THE DAYSHIFT CAN RE-EVALUATE WHETHER TO REPLACE THE HIGH WIND WARNING WITH A WIND ADVISORY THEREAFTER.
/ISSUED 511 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015/ SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS JUST PASSING THROUGH EUFAULA AT THIS WRITING. THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT STARTED CLEARING ABOUT SUNSET WEST LAST NIGHT. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL ZIP INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BARELY BE NOTICEABLE.
432 PM EST THU NOV 19 2015 THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY IS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IT HAS PUSHED HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST, BRINGING A MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO SOUTH FLORIDA.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. WITH A REINFORCING TROUGH IN WESTERN CANADA. A 125-KT UPPER-LEVEL JET WAS DIGGING BEHIDN THE TROUGH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH RIDGE AXIS THROUGH WESTERN SD INTO EASTERN MT. NEAR- SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL START ABOVE FREEZING IN ALL BUT THE FARTHEST NORTH AREAS OF THE CWA. THINK THAT THE ODDS OF WARNING-TYPE CONDITIONS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE WATCH ARE ON THE LOW SIDE.
302 PM CST THU NOV 19 2015 WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST MIDSOUTH COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. READINGS RANGED FROM NEAR 60F NORTH TO THE LOW 70'S SOUTH. AFTER SEEING WARMER HIGHS TODAY HAVE AGREED WITH THE MODELS THAT INCREASING WAA SHOULD PROVIDE FOR WARMER THAN FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
420 PM EST THU NOV 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
1008 AM MST THU NOV 19 2015 SOME LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAIN PASSES UNDER THE STRONG NW FLOW OVER COLORADO. SOME MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED IN THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH ENOUGH OF AN OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT FOR A CHC OF SNOW TO CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER WEST FACING SLOPES. TEMPERATURES TODAY A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. WL KEEP AREAS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF DENVER A LITTLE COOLER AGAIN MAINLY DUE TO THE SNOW COVER THERE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST COLORADO AROUND MID MORNING AND THEN TRACK SOUTH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LIFT FROM THE TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGH POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
357 PM EST THU NOV 19 2015 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
We should warm up a few degrees more before a cold front pushes through the area early this afternoon causing temps to fall again through the late afternoon/evening hours. A secondary cold front will move into southern IN by around sunrise and then through central Kentucky this morning and early afternoon. The front will bring another surge of cooler air. High pressure will build in tonight and then shift off to the northeast through the day on Friday. Cooler and drier weather will be in store. Temperatures tonight will drop into the lower to mid 30s with highs Friday in the lower to mid 50s.
A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z FRIDAY BEFORE FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KMCB AND KBTR.
252 PM EST THU NOV 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY THIS EVENING WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 81. MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE FALL SEASON TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
1257 PM EST THU NOV 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST OF US THIS AFTERNOON. DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FROM THE WEST WILL CLEAR THINGS OUT.
1218 PM EST THU NOV 19 2015 ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD JUST BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT PROVIDING MOSTLY EXCEPT SLIGHTLY WARMER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FAIR AND COLD WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY.
Another upper trough will begin to move over the Central Plains by Friday evening.
244 PM EST THU NOV 19 2015 A COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY.
45 SURFACE RIDGING DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LEADING TO LIGHT NE WINDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE OVERALL FCST OF ELEVATED POPS FOR SAT WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. NOT LOOKING AT FREEZING TEMPS AS OF YET BUT MOS TEMPS HAVE BEEN TRENDING COOLER WITH SUCCESSIVE RUNS. THE RETURN OF ONSHORE SFC WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS. 41 WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NE/E LATER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
305 PM EST THU NOV 19 2015 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
308 PM EST THU NOV 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY.
323 PM CST THU NOV 19 2015 (Tonight and Friday) Temperatures were a few degrees cooler today behind the cold front that moved through overnight and this morning. This will result in warmer overnight lows, mainly in the 40s, and possibly some clouds developing across the area. Friday will be a few degrees warmer than today with highs mainly in the lower 70s under partly cloudy skies after the morning clouds scatter out.
A broad longwave trough was situated over central North America this morning, generally centered over the Mississippi Valley. Increasing southwesterly downslope flow ahead of this system will allow warmer air to spread east across western Kansas later tonight and Friday before a strong cold front plows southeast across western Kansas later Friday afternoon. Model and MOS output is looking a little warmer than the current forecast suggests so have bumped up highs on Friday a few degrees over much of the area. The cold front will move across southwest and central Kansas by early Friday evening.
AS TEMPERATURES HOVER JUST ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN BY AROUND NOON AS WARMER AIR ARRIVES ALONG A WARM FRONT. LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR REACHING THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN BY 15Z OR RIGHT AROUND THE START OF PRECIPITATION. A COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL END THE PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THE LAST COLD FRONT.
332 PM CST THU NOV 19 2015 POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS LIFTED TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE HAS DRIFTED OVER THE CENTRAL MISS RVR VALLEY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PUSHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CLOSER TO HOME MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20. THE ADIABATIC COOLING OF THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY DROP TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH ANY PRECIP.
HIGHLIGHTED BY A BROAD NEGATIVELY-TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS ANCHORED BY A CLOSED LOW FEATURE SPINNING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS CYCLOGENESIS IS NOT BEING REPRESENTED WELL IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND HENCE THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY NOT HANDLING THE HIGHER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF VERY WELL. PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS LOOK PROBABLE FOR ALL TERMINALS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND SETTLE THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NOW LOOKS TO RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT AND THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
444 PM EST THU NOV 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY BUT COOL CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.
1204 PM EST THU NOV 19 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY.
327 PM EST THU NOV 19 2015 COOLER AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT. THE SECOND IS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY SWEEPING ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND EASTERN KENTUCKY.
301 PM EST THU NOV 19 2015 A COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY.
146 PM EST THU NOV 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
151 PM CST THU NOV 19 2015 WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
349 PM CST THU NOV 19 2015 AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS ALLOWING FOR LIGHT NE/E WINDS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAVE A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE N GREAT LAKES AND NEGATIVELY TILTED TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS OUT OF THE N AS IT DROPS INTO NORTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL INITIALLY PUSH INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
113 PM EST THU NOV 19 2015 A COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY.
/ISSUED 321 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/ THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE CWFA. THE RESULT WILL BE A MOSTLY DOWN DAY CONVECTIVELY SPEAKING, ISOLD POPS WARRANTED MAINLY IN/NEAR ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES FROM DAVIS MTNS S AND WITHIN MID LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS PECOS.
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT VERY LIKELY TO REMAIN CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO STAY WEST NORTHWEST OF NM.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE A MOIST. AND 3-4 MBS TO THE LOWER DESERTS. CLOUDS WILL BE THICKER ON MON MORNING AS AN EASTERLY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM SE TO NW. LESS CLOUDS AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUE/WED.
MORNING SOUNDING FROM BOISE SHOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT /FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO 10K FEET MSL/. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SE OREGON AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. MOST OFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS SITES WILL ACHIEVE RECORD HIGHS TODAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT. MOISTURE/CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD IN MONSOON-LIKE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE. THE NAM CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT CONVECTION WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL PUSH A SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EVEN AS IT PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BRINGS SOME RELIEF FROM THE RECORD-SETTING HEAT.
THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY ALSO BE WORKED OVER SOME DUE TO COLD POOLING/OUTFLOWS. THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT VERY LIKELY TO REMAIN CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO STAY WEST NORTHWEST OF NM.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN STATES WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AFTN. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUD AS SMALL POCKETS OF MOISTURE ROTATE THROUGH THE RIDGE AXIS.
ALTHOUGH IT WAS A FEW DEGREES COOLER YESTERDAY, IT WAS STILL HOT AND SEVERAL RECORDS WERE BROKEN BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES.
949 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A GOOD SOAKING RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA.
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NORTH OF FL. HOWEVER OVERALL DRIER AIR AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT (-6 TO -7 AT 500MB) WILL KEEP CONVECTION FAIRLY ISOLATED INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS SOUTH FL AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.
1252 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
1032 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN A RETURN TO SOUTH WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH.
917 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U. DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NW PENN AT 13Z WILL SPIN EAST AND BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND WRN MTNS OF PENN TODAY. AFTER THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG BREAKS A BIT ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION LATE THIS MORNING. WE/LL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREADING EAST INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS NCENT PENN. POPS FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY /MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/ WILL BE AOB 20 PERCENT WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DECREASE BY TONIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
1252 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND COASTAL. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
738 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U. DEEP UPPER LOW SPINNING FROM NE OHIO INTO NW PA WILL BRING SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS INTO THE WRN ALLEGHENIES TODAY. WLY FLOW IN THE LEE OF HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FROM THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION INTO THE MID TO LOWER SQV. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DECREASE BY TONIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
A MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND A COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
WITH A RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AND A GENERAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS INTO MID-WEEK.
1119 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015 MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE REGION REVEALED THAT A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH /AS EVIDENCED BY THE 12 UTC FWD RAOB/ SHOULD HELP TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS VERY LOW. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AS SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WAS NOT SHUNTED SOUTHWARD BY THE WEAK FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH/CENTRAL TX WITH A FEW COOLER READINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.
STILL THINK LOWER CIGS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SCOOTS BY JUST TO THE SOUTH. VIGOROUS UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE TROF OVER CENTRAL MN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE SETS UP ACROSS WI/IL BORDER AREA TONIGHT. AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS NRN IL.
DEEP WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AND MILD COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT TEMP RISES AT BAY AND FILTER IN DRIER AIR FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LOWER DEWPOINTS TODAY.
843 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 SHOWERS AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL GREET THE NEW WEEK AS A PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD EDGE SITS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA ON A LINE FROM ABOUT COLUMBUS OHIO TO CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA. SO FAR TODAY THE HIGH TEMP -63- WAS AT MIDNIGHT (STANDARD TIME). TAX SHOWERS SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
MOST HIGH- RES MODELS KEEP THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA OR NEAR THE HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDOR AND WILL CARRY 50 POPS CLOSE TO THIS REGION. TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT-TERM WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
917 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS DIPPING TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. TO THE SOUTH A DEEP LAYER RIDGE IS PARKED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND LIKELY GO VARIABLE OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN.
REGIONAL 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ROUGHLY FROM RALEIGH, NC SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO MONTGOMERY, AL THEN WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI.
WITH CALM WINDS AND PLEASANTLY COOL TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE/NORTHEAST ALABAMA TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT WEST- NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND TRAILING TROUGH AXIS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC. WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S IN ELEVATED TERRAIN AND THE LOWER/MID 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TROUGH THE EVENING.
944 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WAS ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NRN CO THIS AFTN AND EVENING. AS A RESULT MAY SEE A BETTER CHC OF TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
1027 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
THE RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER UTAH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. -AL WESTERN UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND EXPANDS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD MON/TUE. MAX TEMPS MON SHOULD RUN SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN SUN OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AS COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTH FOLLOWING LATE SUN WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. AND A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY WILL CREEP UPWARD TOWARD THE 100F MARK. UPPER RIDGE THEN SHIFTS WESTWARD BEGINNING WED. AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. FIRST WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WED. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE READINGS THU AS HEIGHTS FALL AND COOLER AIR PUSHES SOUTH.
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE AREA WILL KEEP THE WINDS IN A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TODAY. /ISSUED 341 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015/ A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES KEEPING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA.
72 INCHES, MEASURED A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN THE LOW 80'S, AND CALCULATED A THUNDERSTORM STEERING FLOW FROM THE EAST BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
1055 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.
614 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015 NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BUILDING SOUTH. THE MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR TODAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD PUSH MIXING HEIGHTS ABOVE 750 MB AND HIGHS WARMER THAN THE UPPER 80S. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING THE HIGH PLAINS. THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST DOES RETROGRADE TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE WEEK.
AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. KETCHAM INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW- LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT A HOT AND BREEZY DAY TODAY. REACHING ROUGHLY THE HIGHWAY 50 OR KS TURNPIKE CORRIDORS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
824 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015 STRONG RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WE SHOULD AGAIN SEE A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERLY UPSLOPE AREAS PER THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO OUR WEST. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE WITH HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION. WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING.
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW THE COLD FRONT IS NOW MOVING ACROSS WESTERN WI EARLY THIS MORNING AND WHAT LITTLE REMAINS OF THE SHOWERS THAT FELL YESTERDAY ARE ALSO MOVING EAST WITH THE FRONT. THE POST-COLD FRONTAL AIR MASS IS COOLER AND DRIER - TEMPS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN MN. THE CLEARING CLOUD TREND AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION CURRENTLY UNDERWAY WILL SIT THE STAGE FOR A COOLER DAY AND A CHILLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A WEST COAST TROUGH WILL EJECT EAST OUT OF CALIFORNIA AND PASS OVER THE ROCKIES BEFORE SLOWLY MAKING ITS TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SUN-TUE.
353 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE WHILE LOWER PRESSURE SETTLES DEEPER INTO THE PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
345 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015 MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NERN GULF WHILE LOW PRESSURE SITS OVER FAR WRN TX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE WRN GULF REGION. WITHIN A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS.
HUMID SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE MID GULF AREA. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA TODAY WILL MOVE TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON SATURDAY AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN DIP DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 30S SO HAVE HOISTED ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL (WHERE CLOUDS AND/OR PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST TONIGHT). FORCING WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A S/WV IMPULSE EJECTING OUT OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL ENTER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
HUNG UP IN A BLOCKING PATTERN IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING WHICH WANTS TO EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS BLOCKED BY THE WEAK CYCLONIC ENVELOPE TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORM. RECENT GOES SATELLITE BASED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE WARMED AND DRIED.