Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
306 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2016 Upper level trough digs across the Northern Plains this evening and tonight. Main weather focus will be on the mid level trough and vort max swinging across central South Dakota this afternoon and through the forecast area this evening. Later tonight, the upper trough exits the region while weak ridging returns thursday morning.
324 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2016 Early afternoon moisture channel imagery and upper-air analysis reveal an elongated area of high pressure oriented from northeast to southwest across the region. In fact, dewpoints remain unpleasantly high this afternoon--in the low to mid 70s south of the Metroplex--which is resulting in some heat index values in the 102-105 degree range at this hour. High pressure will be in charge tomorrow. I've retained some silent 10% PoPs across our far northwestern counties to account for afternoon convective development across the Low Rolling Plains.
Given the amount of available moisture, convection has already begun to develop over the higher terrain, and will be possible across most of the area through this evening. Southwesterly flow aloft will continue the next few days, as the region remains between a deepening western CONUS trough and high pressure in place across the southeast.
High pressure remains over much of the forecast area and dew points are still in the upper 40s and 50s as of 2 AM CDT. The upper trough currently over MT is progressing rapidly to the east, and should move into the Western Plains by late afternoon. The WRF runs show mostly convection in a linear bow, but with the low level wind profile bringing some nicely curved hodographs there will be a threat of tornadoes possible at least in our southern counties.
335 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 Update A slow moving cold front will trigger several rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the region through tonight. High pressure will gradually move in later Thursday into Thursday night leading to a slightly drier airmass.
Upper ridge is parked over just to our west while dry air in water vapor imagery is filtering in some pretty dry air, with PW's falling to near an inch at KBMX sounding this morning. An upper low is also analyzed over the southern Gulf of Mexico but this looks to skirt well south of our area as it traverses to the west the next couple of days. As the upper ridge slowly builds over the area and dry air aloft pushes in from the east, PW's will fall from the south and east tonight and tomorrow near the 1 inch range.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail the rest of the afternoon into the evening as the 500mb ridge across Texas continues to provide subsidence across the Rio Grande valley and the northern ranchlands. Strong high pressure well established over the region will remain entrenched across the CWA through the short term. The main weather impact will be the heat with the center of the 597dm ridge moving fairly close to South Texas temperatures to peak the next few days. Temperatures 4 to 8 degrees above seasonal averages will be common with highs ranging from the mid to upper 90's to lower 100s add in the high dew point air, courtesy of the southeast flow, heat indices once again will approach 110 degrees today and again Thursday.
Temperatures will top out in the lower to middle 80s today with lows tonight falling into the middle 50s to lower 60s. For Thursday, temperatures climb into the lower to middle 80s once more in advance of an approaching cold front.
649 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2016 High pressure will prevail into this weekend.
High pressure will then move over the region, keeping conditions dry for the remainder of the night period and through the day Thursday.
246 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 ALOFT - Ridging sprawled across most of the Gulf region while an inverted trough over the Caribbean reached to near far south FL. SURFACE - Atlantic high pressure extended along 30-35 north latitude to the western Gulf coast. The upper level ridging meanders over the Gulf coastal region while the inverted trough tracks out over the southern Gulf of Mexico. The highest coverage is expected over the south with the lowest coverage brushing southern Hillsborough and Polk counties. The low temperatures will be near normal except just below in the north.
502 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 The main synoptic features across the region include a boundary across the northwest Bahamas that extends into the local Atlantic waters, an upper level low that continues to retrograde southwest across the western Florida straits and a tropical wave near western Cuba extending into the southeast Bahamas. While the upper level low should continue to the southwest and have less influence, with persistent northeasterly flow along the boundary this could allow for additional showers and some thunderstorms this evening and over night across portions of the Atlantic waters and metro areas.
Still a line of showers with the cold front moving through the central. with trough/boundary extended north into western North Dakota. Upper level analysis places trough pushing through western North Dakota with strong vort max lifting ahead of the main trough. With strong large scale ascent in place due to the aforementioned trough, storms will continue to develop and push east through the afternoon, with possibly a few lingering into the evening.
Then the dry air beginning to move into the region after 06z as the cold front pushes the rain out of the region by Thursday morning.
334 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2016 Moisture moving around the upper high centered over NE Texas and NW Louisiana was helping to bring scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms to portions of SE Texas at mid afternoon.
In the wake of this activity some broken sunshine is occurring over the area allowing temperatures to increase into the lower and mid 80s. Surface cold front does work south through the area overnight and should take any precip/moisture to the south of the area for after midnight through the day on Thursday. This boundary is likely to stall to the south and retreat on Thursday night as the next round of height falls /currently rotating southeast through the Gulf of AK this afternoon/ moves into the high Plains.
250 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 Dry weather is expected to continue through the week with dry high pressure dominating.
This moisture has been pulled northward along the eastern/southeastern edge of a broad trough located over the northern CONUS.
Expect clouds to begin filling in tomorrow as a cold front approaches from the NW.
237 PM PDT WED SEP 7 2016 Upper level high pressure moving into the region will bring a return to above normal temperatures through the weekend.
Thursday Night Through Wednesday Generally dry and warmer breezy conditions will continue through the weekend.
1155 AM MDT WED SEP 7 2016 An upper trough crossing the northern plains today will bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to the forecast area from this morning into the afternoon. The area with the highest PoPs today will be located from the Black Hills northward across northwestern South Dakota from this morning into the early afternoon in the region of the strongest mid-level frontogenesis.
High temperatures in the lower 90s at all our mains sites still looks good.
The higher elevations along the Continental Divide could see gusts up to 40-50 mph. Cooler and drier air will settle in behind the Thursday weather disturbance that will help clear things out overnight Thursday. Most will be in the lower to mid 30s, but isolated locations could dip into the upper 20s.
Exception to this will be along the southern border including the southern Sangre De Cristo mountains and the crest of the Raton ridge. temperatures could end up similar or slightly warmer than those of yesterday. with lows to drop into the 30s across the high mountain valleys.
Risk of severe weather is borderline with bulk shear on the low side (increasing to around 30 knots), but can't rule out a couple strong wind gusts this afternoon and evening.
A cloud line is becoming more robust across the lower Keys, and a line of showers is stretching westward from Key West.
Upper level ridging is bringing dry and sunny weather with above normal temperatures. Today has been a warmer day than yesterday, with current temperatures about 5 degrees higher than yesterday. Thursday looks slightly cooler for much of the area, especially in Delta breeze influenced locations.
Expect the next pacific cold front to begin to spread its influence across the region Thursday night as a modest LLJ begins to increase across the region.
411 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2016 A large ridge of high pressure with very dry air in the mid and upper levels over most of the southeast states (very well defined in water vapor imagery) will continue to dominate over the region through Thursday. The active easterlies in the Gulf will continue to stream weak waves and surges of higher moisture from south Florida and east central Gulf into the northwest Gulf and western Gulf coast over the next few days, and an upper low over the southeast Gulf is expected to move steadily west across the southern Gulf through Thursday.
440 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 High pressure will remain across the area tonight. Low pressure will approach later Thursday, then cross the region Thursday night with a cold front.
/issued 1104 AM CDT WED SEP 7 2016/ The morning water vapor imagery indicates broad upper ridging anchored over the Srn Plains and lower MS Valley. with the visible satellite depicting cu towers now developing over the Delta region of SE AR/NE LA where the ridge is weakest. A step outside in the parking lot reveals the cu field still flat as of late morning closer to the ridge center over NW LA. but this should not advance too far inland given the very weak Srly flow beneath the ridge. believe that convection will be more isolated this afternoon along the Ern edge of the ridge center.
Quiet weather for most of the night as weak high pressure slides across the state.
CWA remains on the western side of the Bermuda Ridge with the axis sliding slightly northward tonight across the northern part of the CWA. In addition, the CWA remains under the eastern side of an upper level ridge centered across Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Temperatures are in the lower 90s with heat index values in the middle 90s to near 100 degrees.
/ISSUED / Moisture moving around the upper high centered over NE Texas and NW Louisiana was helping to bring scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms to portions of SE Texas at mid afternoon.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): The elongated 500mb ridge across northeast Mexico into Texas will continue to provide subsidence across deep south TX tonight into Thursday. An inverted 500mb trough is expected to move into the western Gulf of Mexico Thursday night but any convection will likely be confined to the offshore waters of the lower TX coast.
with trough/boundary extended north into western North Dakota. Upper level analysis places trough pushing through western North Dakota with strong vort max lifting ahead of the main trough. With strong large scale ascent in place due to the aforementioned trough, storms will continue to develop and push east through the afternoon, with possibly a few lingering into the evening.
The highest probabilities are expected to remain across southeast KS where the best H85 moisture transport is anticipated. Low lvl moisture transport/310K isentropic upglide is progged to persist Thu-Fri supporting periods of showers and thunderstorms across much of the area through the period although the highest probabilities are expected to remain across southeast KS.
206 PM MDT WED SEP 7 2016 A cold front will arrive on Thursday.
345 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2016 (Tonight and Thursday) The extension of the subtropical ridge into Texas will result in mainly dry and warm conditions for our area through Thursday. Clear to partly cloudy skies will prevail across the area overnight, with lows in the lower and middle 70s. Expect another warm day on Thursday under partly cloudy skies, with afternoon highs in the lower and middle 90s.
1131 AM MDT WED SEP 7 2016 Early morning WV imagery and RAP upper level analysis shows SW flow in place across the plains ahead of large scale upper trough over the western US. At the surface a stalled front extends across our southern CWA with a low pressure centered over southeast Colorado.
Temperatures right along the coastline are a degree or so lower than yesterday but other areas have had good warming so far today and are generally four to seven degrees warmer.
Main change with this forecast package will be to increase the high clouds and hold onto them longer as it looks like the north edge of this will not move much overnight and then slide east during the day. Hints of being slightly warmer and drier tomorrow but really not much of a change.
Temperatures will start to cool tomorrow as the onshore flow returns to our region and the ridge overhead begins to flatten. As expected, a combination of a very compressed marine layer, ridge of high pressure aloft, weak surface flow, and warm temperatures above the surface all have combined to bring very warm conditions to almost our entire CWA today. Temperatures will reverse course starting tomorrow as the ridge slightly flattens and the flow becomes more onshore.
Lows tonight will drop into the low to mid 70s. with highs on Thursday into the low to mid 80s.
Moisture over Arizona associated with post-tropical cyclone Newton will move away to the east tonight and Thursday.
329 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2016 High pressure will remain the dominant player in the weather game across Central Alabama through the forecast period. Slightly warmer low levels today will keep overnight lows a couple degrees warmer tonight, but overnight temperatures will still fall into 60s.
With little change to the pattern of a strong and deep high pressure ridge across the Southeast, a persistence forecast will be followed for the short term. High temperatures will continue to be above normal, with highs again in the lower to mid 90s. At the start of this period Thursday night, the area will still be dominated by the upper ridge, and the main frontal boundary still well north of the area, in the Great Lakes over to the Central Plains.
Mostly cloudy skies across interior NorCal early this morning as high-level moisture moves northward ahead of the low off the BC coast.
350 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2016 Upper ridging continues across the High Plains today as the main flow persists across Canada. however with the ridge in place there is extremely weak shear. Upper ridging will increase in amplitude while remaining stationary across the region as an upper trough moves into the West Coast.
214 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 Weak high pressure today. A stronger front on Wednesday ushering in a cooler end to the week. Weak high pressure over the area today. High pressure will have a firm hold on the Region through Wednesday.
Southwesterly flow aloft will persist as a low pressure trough over/near the Pacific Northwest coast and a high pressure ridge over eastern MT and the Canadian Prairies move little. A few -SHRA and -TSRA may develop over the higher terrain of Central/Southwest MT and the Continental Divide this afternoon and persist into the evening. Jaszka Stationary high pressure ridge will bring unseasonably warm temperatures across the central MT fire districts through the midweek period.
Small hail in the high elevations will remain a threat as well as gusty outflow winds. High pressure becomes more dominant over the region by Wednesday as a digging trough in the west forces the ridge to amplify over the northern Rockies. The Pacific low pressure system will continue to shift east on Thu and will move over British Columbia and Washington Thu night and Fri. The associated trough will strengthen along the West Coast with a south-southwest flow developing over our forecast area by early Thu. In addition, the GFS indicates cooler temperatures will occur as cooler air filters in on Sat, and a cold front passes over the area on Sun. After this time KASE and KTEX will have the highest probabilities of seeing storm formation in the vicinity of the airfields.
A broad southwesterly flow continues across the PAC NW with a broad upper trough deepening over the East Pacific. A wave of energy can be seen over northern California lifting ahead of the trough.
An upper level system and associated cold front will push through the region overnight tonight into early Tuesday morning and result in breezy winds, slightly cooler temperatures and the slight possibility of dry thunderstorms over the North Bay. A broad troughing pattern over the West Coast will result dry weather conditions along with temperatures below seasonal averages through the remainder of the week. The longwave pattern has a very broad upper trough off the Pac NW/West Coast. Embedded in the trough is an upper level low that is due west of Point Arena heading toward the North Bay.
This will lower expected minimum temperatures to the mid/upper 40s in the north central to the lower 50s south. Quiet weather continues as high pressure settles over the area.
459 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016 An upper low located off the Upper Texas coast will help keep chances for showers and thunderstorms over Southeast Texas today. Because of the vicinity of the upper low, and an abundance of moisture, best rain chances will be over the southwestern counties. Although there are some differences in the model solution, a consensus has the upper low moving southward and shearing out over the next couple of days. In turn, an upper ridge will extend into Texas from the northeast during the mid week period to help dry out and bring a return to afternoon temperatures in the 90s.
210 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016 An upper level high that has been centered over our region for the last few days will finally start to shift west and weaken today into tonight. Meanwhile, an upper level low pressure system over Manitoba will slide southeast into Ontario and Quebec.
1200 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2016 Closed mid/upper low is in place over southern Colorado/northern New Mexico, with long moist plume of moisture extending from the Pacific across the Plains. Due to the moist nature of the air mass in place, warm rain processes (skinny CAPE/warmer thermal profiles), and slower individual cell motions, any thunderstorms could produce heavy rain (flash flood threat). Regarding temperatures: After cold front and upper low shift east, air mass will be slightly cooler Tuesday than today. If cloud cover and precip remains similar to today then we may barely warm out of the low 70s over parts of our CWA. Other areas may reach the low 80s assuming the cloud cover thins out enough. I trended the temperature from consensus towards the lower end of guidance as confidence in clearing is low.
216 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 Other than early morning valley fog, quiet weather is expected today through tonight with high pressure in place across the Northeast. A cold front will slide through the region Wednesday into Wednesday Night with scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, late this week through the weekend, dry weather will return as cooler Canadian high pressure dominates our region. High pressure is in charge, keeping the weather dry and quiet through tonight. Not only has high pressure settled right on top of the region, but also the air mass is stunningly dry, especially between 5 and 20 thousand feet where dewpoint depressions of 40 or more degrees Celsius are indicated in model soundings. For tonight, high pressure will ooze southeast, ahead of an approaching front well to our northwest.
352 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will move off the east coast. A cold front from the upper midwest will sag across the area on Wednesday.
246 AM MST TUE AUG 30 2016 Strong high pressure in the eastern Pacific will result in above normal temperatures the next few days, particularly across southeastern California.
400 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 High pressure centered over the Eastern Great Lakes is forecast to keep dry weather over the area today. The threat of showers and thunderstorms will return Wednesday with a cold front.
341 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016 High pressure will continue to build in over the area today. an upper low is moving east across NE Manitoba into Hudson Bay while an upper ridge builds over the Rockies.
A tropical cyclone is forecast to develop in the Gulf of Mexico and move NE across North Florida and offshore the Carolina coast mid to late week. Behind the cyclone, drier cooler high pressure will build in for most areas this weekend. Weak upper ridge axis to our north will weaken and shift west today. High temperatures are forecast a few degrees above normal, in the lower 90s. Upper low will remain along the Carolina coastline tonight into Wednesday. Would expect best probability for precip will be across the east and southeastern counties closer to the areas of low pressure.
An amplifying upper ridge is in place over Northeast Montana and the Prairie Provinces. As the ridge amplifies the hot desert air- mass filters north through the local area and into Canada.
Long wave trough continues to dig south along 140W with the axis of this trough shifting over the forecast area by the end of the week. Models continue to back off on how much precipitation will be with this system, but decided to leave at least isolated showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain of Baker County and the West Central Mountains for this afternoon into this evening. Due to cloud cover spreading over the region ahead of the upper level trough, and combined with moisture from tropical storm Madeline east of Hawaii, thinking high temperatures will not be as warm today as model guidance suggest.
126 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2016 A ridge of high pressure will build east from the Great Lakes overnight and will crest over the north country on Tuesday. A cold front will move south from Canada on Wednesday and will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the north country on Wednesday.
255 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 High pressure will bring another period of warmer than normal and mainly dry weather into Wednesday.
131 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2016 Warm and dry weather is expected until the passage of a mid week cold front. High pressure should maintain dry and warm weather today as it slides east across the northeastern CONUS. Main weather maker through this part of the forecast will be a cold front moving across the region Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicates that the center of the upper level ridge has shifted to the west with the center near the confluence of the OHio and Mississippi Rivers. A weak closed low can be noted just off the GA coast with NE flow throughout much of the atmosphere across the forecast area. At the surface, tropical Depression Eight is just off the NC coast with high pressure across the Great Lakes extending into the Northeastern U. A decent dewpoint spread this morning with dewpoint in the low to mid 60s across SW VA and locations near the TN/NC line. The mid and upper levels will not offer any synoptic support for showers and storms to form with the center of the ridge located just to the west.
Under mostly cloudy skies, temperatures in the island chain are in the lower 80s. Tropical Depression Nine will slowly move around the western periphery of a deep-layered ridge located over south Fl for the next 36 to 48 hours.
124 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 High pressure will bring another period of warmer than normal and mainly dry weather into Wednesday.
An upper-level ridge remains anchored over Indiana. This along with the weak upper low in Georgia will bring in dry air from the northeast, thus limiting convection more so today than yesterday. Similar to yesterday, models hint a very weak piece of upper level energy rounding the ridge and skirting along the southeast of Central AL, near the best 1000mb-500mb moisture as well. Due to the reduced rain chances, temps will increase slightly, but still expected to remain in the low 90s.