Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Additional shower activity is possible later this morning and this afternoon as the main upper low over the northern Great Lakes lingers over this area today. A cold front will also swing through, and will enhance low level convergence. The closed upper low in southwest Ontario Monday will begin to sag south Monday night and Tuesday. Warmer afternoon highs can be expected with more sunshine west and north with mid/upper 60s.
/issued 343 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017/ High pressure over the western Atlantic waters will move east through Tuesday allowing for a cold front over the Tennessee Valley to move southeast into the Southeastern United States. A trough of low pressure over the Northwestern United States will move southeast and strengthen as it moves into the Tennessee Valley by middle of this week.
Mixed winds are also out of the north with gusts into the low 20s (kts). As the upper low pinwheels over the western lakes region, flow aloft will send stratus down into our CWA.
MVFR conditions are expected to develop at the Oklahoma sites by late tonight following the passage of a cold front. The chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist into Tuesday as a more pronounced upper level trof moves through the plains. Severe weather is not anticipated with this activity as instability will be on the low end.
Driven southward on the nose of a 100 kt jet, this low amplitude wave and its associated cold front are expected to reach the Elkhead and Park Mountains late this afternoon. A slight warming at the 7h level combined with fewer clouds during the early part of today should bring slightly warmer temperatures during the afternoon.
1058 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017 High pressure will bring drier and cooler conditions for the beginning of the week. Upper level low pivots through the northern Great Lakes today, with westerly flow across the Ohio Valley. This high will bring dry conditions and temperatures a little below normal. High pressure will linger at the sfc tonight keeping the region dry. Lows will drop to the lower to mid 50s. Highs in Tuesday will warm into the lower to mid 70s, before cooling back to the lower to mid 50s.
The only wrench in that plan could be for our far southeast counties nearest the Alabama state line, which could see a shower late tonight and early Tuesday morning as a fairly intense low pressure system passes us to the south.
1212 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 Low pressure located north of Lake Superior will continue to move slowly east across Canada today. High pressure will push up the Ohio Valley later today and move to the east coast on Tuesday.
858 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017 The region will be between high pressure to the East Today, and a frontal boundary to the Northwest.
Water vapor loop indicated an upper low over western Ontario with short waves over southwest MAN, eastern MAN, western Ontario and western WI. Short waves will rotate around upper low for today and Tue. Upper low over Western Ontario will move into northwest MN Mon night. Upper low will move into IA/southeast MN on Tue and take the showery precip with it. Upper level ridge over the western North America will move over the Northern Plains Wed. Next upper low will move into SASK by 12Z Thu.
A surface cold front has pushed through most if not all of north AL sitting near the I-59 corridor. Showers/tstms then return to the forecast in earnest later Tonight as a secondary cold front and surface wave develop along the wrn Gulf states in response to an amplifying upper low/trough axis dropping into the srn Plains/Lower MS Valley regions. In any case, the first half of the work week looks to be fairly wet until the passage of this next cold front Wed night.
For now have highs in the low to mid 70s, while lows tonight will be in the 50s. Period will begin with upper low moving swd from the Great Lakes region. This upper low/trof sinks swd Tues into Wed bringing a reinforcing cdfnt thru the region and more rain. Given the persistent cyclonic flow, have trended temp twd the cooler guidance thru mid week.
A developing low pressure area across portions of the southeastern United States will induce a veering and freshening breeze (ESE to SSE) tonight through midday Tuesday.
and Tuesday an upper low over northern Minnesota early this morning will move across northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula today and bring some light rain showers to far northern Wisconsin. Another upper low dropping south across Minnesota late tonight starts to produce upper diffluence across the Western part of the forecast area late tonight and across the entire area Tuesday while warm air and moisture advect northward over a slow moving surface front.
Hot temperatures will return to northwest California today as the ridge axis slides across the region. Today is still anticipated to be the hottest day this week with temperatures across the interior reaching the 80s and 90s with a few warmer valleys hitting the upper 90s. Tuesday will bring more hot weather but temperatures will be cooler by a few degrees as the ridge begins to break down. On Tuesday a weak cutoff low will undercut the ridge and slowly drift towards the western United States.
The upper low will shear overnight resulting in the low dividing into a progressive open wave and a lingering western cutoff low. A longwave upper trough is forecast to extend from Quebec southwest through Lake Superior into the Southern Plains Tuesday evening. An upper level ridge is forecast to stretch through California northeast toward Hudson Bay.
As of 08z, a closed upper low continues over portions of the Great Lakes. A southwest to northeast oriented upper trough was located from the northern plains into the central high plains. Radar observations reveal scattered showers along this trough across portions of northwest KS and southwest NE. The main trough will traverse the area late this evening. Tuesday, The amplified upper level trough axis will be moving east- southeast across eastern KS during the day on Tuesday. If we see some insolation during the afternoon hours then the atmosphere may be slightly unstable and there may be enough residual moisture for showers and isolated thunderstorm under the colder upper level trough axis.
1218 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 High pressure will move east of the region today.
724 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017 Given latest obs showing cooling temperatures and winds veering to the west and northwest suggest the cold front has made it through most the region this morning. The latest surface analysis would suggest a cold front is now bisecting the area from NE to SW. Behind the cold front expect NW winds and high pressure to build east. Meanwhile went cooler in Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland valley locales. A deep long wave trough will be in place across the middle of the country through mid-week.
844 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017 High pressure will move east of the region today.
We may see a strong storm or two this evening along a southward moving cold front, however the deeper moisture is expected remain across the Southern Plains resulting in limited instability precluding more organized strong or severe storms through tonight. A mid/upper trough is progged to meander slowly south and east across the Middle & Upper Mississippi Valley areas on Tuesday while the cold mid lvl air pivots south into the Central Plains states. Below normal temperatures will linger into the day on Wed while drier more subsident air overspreads the forecast area in the wake of the trough.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 79 62 76 61 / 20 30 40 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 75 61 75 60 / 10 30 40 50 Oak Ridge, TN 77 61 76 60 / 10 20 30 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 58 74 56 / 20 30 40 40.
621 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017 WV imagery this morning showing large upper level low pressure currently centered in the vicinity of the western Great Lakes. Height falls associated with large upper level low pressure will spread across the northern/central Plains today. Aforementioned impulses will aid in inducing precip along a relatively weak cold front making a southward dash through the Dakotas. allowing for possible generous rainfall amounts overnight before the cold front pushes south of the CWA. upper low/vort max digs down through the upper Midwest into the Mid MS Valley region.
/issued 327 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017/ Current radar shows a little convection north of Lea County this morning, but much more is expected later today as an upper level trough dives southeast out of the Rockies. This activity will move east out of the area this evening before the trough pushes a cold front south later tonight with more rainfall expected along and behind this boundary. Clouds and rain kept the high in Midland at an astonishing 71 degrees yesterday, and while it should be warmer today we are still expecting highs to be well below normal again.
Pleasant morning ongoing as the Ohio Valley resides under the influence of high pressure. High pressure will drift across the region today with scattered cirrus continuing to filter the sun. High temperatures in the low 70s look on the mark. High pressure will move off to the east of the area tonight, but the next approaching low and forcing will remain to the west.
The next system will be waiting in the wings as an upper low pressure system digs south into the Plains tonight/Tuesday.
435 AM PDT Mon May 22 2017 Dry conditions with warmer temperatures are expected under a ridge of high pressure through Tuesday.
715 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017 Low pressure located north of Lake Superior will continue to move slowly east across Canada today. A cold front from this low will push well east of the area this morning. High pressure will cross the Ohio Valley later today and move to the east coast on Tuesday.
A low pressure system to the southwest is giving off some high cirrus clouds, so although sunshine will be filtered throughout the day, it won't affect forecast high temperatures. Weak high pressure will prevail across the Mid-State through the forecast period.
1051 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017 Weak cold front exits the eastern mountains today. High pressure builds behind the front, then low pressure and unsettled conditions return as early as Tuesday afternoon. Moisture returns tomorrow ahead of a wave rounding the base of an upper trof to our west. Satellite and radar images, and sfc obs suggested that the cold front was located along southeast OH at 3 AM, moving slowly east. The showers and storms activity along the cold front have decreased considerably overnight. The latest is supported by the high resolution model solutions. High pressure builds behind the cold front to bring clear skies and dry air mass to the area. Weak low pressure will pass to our south and east on Tuesday with the best forcing remaining well to our east.
Weak cold front continues to make its way ewd thru the cntrl TN Valley this early Mon morning, with the only wx of note being some lower cloud cover/convective cu as suggested by GOES-16 IR imagery. Showers/tstms then return to the forecast in earnest later Tonight as a secondary cold front and surface wave develop along the wrn Gulf states in response to an amplifying upper low/trough axis dropping into the srn Plains/Lower MS Valley regions. In any case, the first half of the work week looks to be fairly wet until the passage of this next cold front Wed night.
A strong upper level ridge will continue over the region today into Tuesday bringing hot temperatures to inland areas. On Tuesday, an upper trough will begin move southeastward out of the Gulf of Alaska.
945 AM PDT Mon May 22 2017 Continued hot in the Inland Empire and the Lower Deserts through Tuesday with high pressure aloft. Cooler near the coast with night and morning low clouds and dense fog.
649 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017 High pressure responsible for the amazing weather yesterday was starting to slide east of the region. Today will be warmer, however, clouds will be on the increase as our next weather system (cold front and parent upper level short wave) begins to take shape. The Canadian front should slide through the region Tuesday evening/overnight as an upper level low pressure closes off across the cornbelt, amplifying the trough kicking the front southward.
Idea of scattered to likely pops this aftn/eve still looking good as convective temps 54-59 degrees as cold pool with upper low moving in from the north. Water vapor loop indicated an upper low over western Ontario with short waves over southwest MAN, eastern MAN, western Ontario and western WI. Short waves will rotate around upper low for today and Tue. Upper low over Western Ontario will move into northwest MN Mon night. Upper low will move into IA/southeast MN on Tue and take the showery precip with it. Upper level ridge over the western North America will move over the Northern Plains Wed. Next upper low will move into SASK by 12Z Thu.
Coverage/placement of storms is somewhat in question given the limited moisture, but at this time the highest chances still appear to be near/south of I-90 late this afternoon into the evening where low-level moisture and instability is a bit higher.
924 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017 A surface cold front has pushed through most if not all of north AL sitting near the I-59 corridor. Showers/tstms then return to the forecast in earnest later Tonight as a secondary cold front and surface wave develop along the wrn Gulf states in response to an amplifying upper low/trough axis dropping into the srn Plains/Lower MS Valley regions. In any case, the first half of the work week looks to be fairly wet until the passage of this next cold front Wed night.
Warm and dry today as an upper level ridge continues to shift east over the region.
The front is expected to lift slightly northward as a warm front through the day, which would shift the focus more northward as well. But another short wave, continued abundent moisture and the frontal bdry still in the area per model solns, will lead to another round of convection overnight with the higher pops remaining over the eastern half of the CWA. Models prog the PWAT's to decrease Tuesday, but remain sufficient for additional convection as another embedded short wave tracks across the region ahead of a moderate cold front.
Today will be much warmer than normal. Increasing onshore flow will usher in cooler temperatures on Tuesday, and stratus into the interior Tuesday night.
and Thursday a weak cold front moved across the region last night and brought showers and scattered thunderstorms. Cooler and drier air will move into the area today as the front moves away. High temperatures today will be much cooler than yesterday but still above normal. It may produce some light rain from a middle cloud deck, but do not expect much due to the dry air in the low levels.
Upper low over Idaho will swing some energy through our CWA tonight.
This pattern will continue throughout the evening as low and mid level Gulf moisture wraps around the upper level high pressure centered over Texas.
Clearing and Cooler. High pressure is nosing its way into the Upper Great Lakes this afternoon, and will continue to move into the region through Thursday afternoon.
As the subtle trough axis passes, we should see a period of subsidence in it's wake.
High pressure will slowly build over the region for the next several days bringing a warming trend. By late in the week, increased offshore will develop with gusty winds over the Kern County Mountain ridges. Sunny skies prevail this afternoon as high pressure builds over the forecast area. Water vapor imagery shows low pressure moving east over Idaho while a ridge is becoming established out over the Pacific.
A closed low over Nevada will shift to the northeast over the next 12 hours, allowing a strong pressure gradient to develop over Utah and western Colorado by mid morning. Jet support remains over the region Thursday but the pressure gradient will ease with the stretching of the low pressure over Idaho. The chance of showers and thunderstorms across SW Colorado will continue into Thursday until a cold front brushes NE Utah and NW Colorado late Thursday.
244 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue into early this evening as a cold front sags through the area.
320 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017 Cold front has moved south to near a Springfield, Illinois to Columbia, Missouri line this afternoon. Highs tomorrow will still be able rise into the upper 70s and lower 80s and the front moves back north as a warm front late in the day. Britt A weak warm front along the Iowa and Missouri state line will continue to slowly lift north on Thursday night.
321 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017 Surface analysis features high pressure still centered over the central Appalachians and northeast. This moisture will slowly progress south as the high ever so slightly gives way a bit as a cold front approaching from the west will draw north more moisture. The challenging part of the forecast is when will the high retreat enough coupled with enough moisture to bring some showers at least into the western and northwestern portions of the forecast area.
The High-Res Guidance indicates that much of the area will be dry through much of the day.
228 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017 Surface analysis features high pressure still centered over the central Appalachians and northeast. This moisture will slowly progress south into the weekend as the high ever so slightly gives way a bit as a cold front approaching from the west will draw north more moisture. The challenging part of the forecast is when will the high retreat enough coupled with enough moisture to bring some showers at least into the western and northwestern portions of the forecast area.
Regarding thunderstorm chances: We are currently between weak mid level short wave troughs, with the next one entering south central Colorado.
417 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017 Tonight and Thursday: High pressure aloft and at the surface will continue to bring quiet weather to the forecast area over the next 24 hours. Thursday night through Wednesday: As we push into Thursday night we are still at the mercy of that upper level ridge. The high pressure at the surface has skirted to the east off coast, but warm and dry conditions will prevail throughout the night.
High pressure in the mid levels will begin to shift west today, but high pressure at the surface will remain in place through the period.
418 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017 Warm and pleasant day ongoing with dry high pressure reestablished over the region. High pressure progged similarly by models to hold through the remainder of the work-week keeping the area under a dry north to northeast flow aloft. None-the-less, will see a dry weather pattern persist with warm days continuing, but nights slightly cooler with drier air in place.
Short term high resolution guidance suggest some patchy fog possible tonight especially areas along the higher elevation of the plateau and northwest of the I-44. Extreme southern Missouri may see more breaks in the clouds and warmer temperatures Thursday afternoon.
1116 AM MDT Wed Oct 4 2017 Current surface analysis shows high pressure centered over far northwest SD. Upper level analysis shows weakened low pressure moving quickly east across northern MN. Another area of low pressure is located over NV, within western US trough. Mostly clear skies and light winds across much of the area early this morning has allowed temps to drop near or below freezing across much of the area, except for portions of south central SD. As high pressure moves east of the region, winds will become southeasterly, breezy by the afternoon across northeast WY and portions of western SD.
234 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017 Tight moisture gradient looks like it'll not make any progress eastward, as strong high pressure keeps us dry in the short term. The higher-res guidance is not so optimistic for rain (with optimism indicating a rainy forecast, giving a break from the streak of dry days). With the extra cloud cover, we should have a cooler day Thursday, with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 for southern IN and lower 80s in KY. The nights should see readings in the lower 60s with the cloud cover over the north and well into the 50s over southern KY, still in the dry air.
245 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017 High pressure will extend from the central Atlantic west across the state to the southern Appalachians for the next few days. An east-west oriented ridge will be slowly sagging south over the area. Mins will be pretty much peristence, with temps falling to match the low to mid 50s dew point temperatures around sunrise. Fog may be a bit more widespread Thursday night as the low level moisture advection continues. Modification of the airmass will increase the low level thicknesses ~10 meters which is equivalent to a 2 to 3 degree increase in highs for Thursday.
The surface front is expected to begin lifting north as a warm front tonight into Thursday with scattered convection becoming more numerous across central Kansas along and north of I-70 by Thursday night.
312 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017 Upper-level ridge across the region to maintain dry conditions through the remainder of the work week. A frontal boundary stretching across the midwest and extending eastward into the Ohio River Valley along the northern periphery of the upper-level ridge to maintain mostly cloudy skies across much of north Texas and southeast Oklahoma over the next couple of days.
626 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017 A dying cold front will push southeast into the region tonight, then stall out across central Pennsylvania Thursday. The stalled front will lift back north as a warm front late this week bringing mild conditions along with a chance of showers into the weekend. Regional radar loop showing widely scattered showers accompanying a dying cold front across the eastern Grt Lks this evening. Can't rule out a couple lingering showers after midnight in vicinity of dying cold front over northern Pa. Thursday's highs should range from the low 70s over the northern mountains and Laurel Highlands, to around 80F across the Susq Valley.
414 PM MDT Wed Oct 4 2017 Upper level low pressure is centered over southern Idaho. with an upper ridge of high pressure over northeastern Texas. high resolution models suggest a Denver Cyclone forming during the evening hours.
This may eventually result in excessive rainfall south of Interstate 80, with 48 hour amounts ranging 2-4 inches, with the highest amounts in extreme southeast NE.
323 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017 A weakening cold front will drift southeast across the state tonight before temporarily stalling out across southern PA. The stalled front will lift back north as a warm front late this week bringing mild conditions along with a chance of showers into the weekend. With clouds and a SW flow, overnight lows will average 5-10 deg warmer than last night.
A series of cold fronts will cross Utah over the next several days. High pressure will build into the Desert Southwest this weekend.
High pressure will move overhead early today and then to the east tonight, replaced with a low in western South Dakota.
At the same time, the warm upper high breaks down enough to allow a weak west to east frontal system to sag into central Ohio and southwest Pennsylvania Thursday, before lifting back north late Thursday. Consequently, temperatures in the north will be cooler Thursday, but continued very warm in the south with more sun. A frontal boundary across our northern counties will continue to lift northward as a warm front through the period in response to warm air advection associated with an upstream frontal system lifting through the Great Lakes.