Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
207 AM MDT Mon May 23 2022 Semi-active westerly flow will persist in the period with a brief period of dry weather expected mid week before unsettled and cooler weather returns later this weekend. Upper trough slowly migrating east into the central plains with weak pos theta-e adv supporting a few isolated shra this morning. A ridge of high pressure will then build over the Rockies and push east toward the later half of the week, supporting much warmer and mainly dry weather.
309 AM CDT Mon May 23 2022 Mid level warm air advection was beginning to take place as high pressure shifts to the Great Lakes region. Forecast soundings indicate the low levels very dry so not expecting any pcpn reaching the ground. Due to the cloud cover, temps will be warmer compared to the past couple of nights.
302 AM CDT Mon May 23 2022 Radar imagery this morning shows light rain has spread across much of Middle Tennessee to the north of a tropical low pressure area making landfall near Mobile, Alabama. As this low moves north then northeastward across Alabama into east Tennessee today, light rain with perhaps a few thunderstorms mixed in will continue across all but our northwest counties, then pivot out of the area this afternoon. As the tropical low exits stage right tonight, drier and cooler conditions are anticipated with lows falling into the 50s areawide - and where clouds can clear out some patchy fog is likely. Tomorrow, 00Z model suite depicts a fairly large upper trough taking shape over the southern Plains with southwest flow developing aloft across the Tennessee Valley.
The primary trough axis extends from the northern High Plains to the Baja Peninsula, placing the Mid-Mississippi Valley solidly within southwesterly flow aloft. In the lower levels, high pressure is moving into the Lower Great Lakes, resulting in northeasterly winds across Missouri and Illinois. We'll only see weak warm air advection with those wind directions, though highs this afternoon should be a bit warmer than yesterday thanks to less cirrus and more sun across the region. The upper trough will begin accelerating eastward tonight, further deepening low pressure over the southern High Plains.
404 AM EDT Mon May 23 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a broad 500 mb trough over most of the U.
Temperatures will be noticeably cooler and trend below average through midweek.
Periodic high clouds are tied to a plume of moisture ascending to a downstream jet entrance region on the periphery of Southeast mean ridging.
A weak cold front will bring breezy north winds to the Las Vegas Valley early this morning and the Colorado River Valley later this morning.
759 AM EDT Mon May 23 2022 Dry and cooler conditions are expected today and Tuesday.
Radar imagery this morning shows light rain has spread across much of Middle Tennessee to the north of a tropical low pressure area making landfall near Mobile, Alabama. As this low moves north then northeastward across Alabama into east Tennessee today, light rain with perhaps a few thunderstorms mixed in will continue across all but our northwest counties, then pivot out of the area this afternoon. As the tropical low exits stage right tonight, drier and cooler conditions are anticipated with lows falling into the 50s areawide - and where clouds can clear out some patchy fog is likely. Tomorrow, 00Z model suite depicts a fairly large upper trough taking shape over the southern Plains with southwest flow developing aloft across the Tennessee Valley.
528 AM EDT Mon May 23 2022 Subsidence from high pressure across the central Great Lakes maintains the persistent inversion in place across the area. The high cloud is expected to persist in some fashion today, but will remain transparent especially with time of year/sun angle. Strong lake aggregate high pressure will remain in place on Tuesday as mid/upper heights build across the region. This feature nestled favorably within the ridge axis brings high confidence in dry conditions A high amplitude open trough is forecasted to advance into the Central Plains Tuesday and induce cyclogenesis over parts of KS/MO/IA.
235 AM PDT Mon May 23 2022 Dry weather and breezy afternoon winds will be present thru mid week as upper ridging influences the region. Dynamic weather will move in late in the week bringing gusty winds, cooler temperatures, and chances for precipitation. Monday through Tuesday Night Strong high pressure and associated upper ridge situated off the west coast will place the region under northwesterly flow with flow turning more westerly by Tuesday night. As ridging and a warmer air mass move east and into the Great Basin region, a warming trend will be present. Overnight lows Monday night are to be in the low 30s to low 40s, with mid 30s to mid 40s anticipated for Tuesday night.
257 AM MST Mon May 23 2022 A broad area of low pressure will stay positioned just to the north of the region over the couple of days, keeping temperatures near normal while skies remain generally clear.
Otherwise, the more coherent/deeper moisture flux and isentropic lift will ramp up tonight thru midday Tuesday ahead of the deepening trof/upper low across the central high Plains. As the deepening upper trof/low evolves across the central high Plains into Tuesday afternoon and evening, the greater risk for heavier rainfall is expected to shift into southeast Kansas.
533 AM CDT Mon May 23 2022 A weak upper level ridge will move east through the area today as low pressure moves from Colorado onto the Plains, but appears to be weakening as it does. With this somewhat stubborn ridge the low levels will remain with a southeast component to the wind. CAPE values of about 100 J/kg may allow for a couple rumbles of thunder and with freezing levels at about 5000 ft AGL maybe a little pea sized hail. Otherwise south winds of 10 to 20 mph and increasing clouds will see highs top out mainly in the lower 60s, possibly some 50s in south central SD where clouds arrive sooner.
537 AM MDT Mon May 23 2022 Semi-active westerly flow will persist in the period with a brief period of dry weather expected mid week before unsettled and cooler weather returns later this weekend. Upper trough slowly migrating east into the central plains with weak pos theta-e adv supporting a few isolated shra this morning. A ridge of high pressure will then build over the Rockies and push east toward the later half of the week, supporting much warmer and mainly dry weather.
Low clouds will be moving into the region this morning as a low pressure system moves across the area. Temperatures this morning are much warmer than the past couple nights, ranging from around 40 to 45. Some showers are already starting to form a band from Mobridge to Watertown. Winds today will be out of the south to southeast as the low passes to our north. Areas of north central and central SD could see gusts around 30 kts this afternoon as the low moves out of the region. Tuesday looks to be a little cooler than today due to a thick cloud layer, but no precip is expected.
Water vapor imagery shows the axis of the upper trough over the Four Corners as of 2 AM. This upper trough will continue to slowly progress eastward through the day and into the overnight hours. This should change, however, as the upper trough moves closer to the FA and lapse rates begin to steepen. The highest instability values will remain south of the front and this is where the heaviest and most widespread rainfall would occur which unfortunately should be south of our area. However, as lift increases at least a few showers and thunderstorms may attempt to develop across the higher terrain of New Mexico and then move east through our forecast area during the evening.
Latest GOES 16 WV imagery places the trough axis over south-central Wyoming and will continue to move east this morning.
The cold front responsible for that rainfall has pushed south of AR. keeping the cooler. Some upper level ridging will allow for some peaks of sunshine for this afternoon. A warm front will lift north over the state on Tue into Tue night.
649 AM EDT Mon May 23 2022 High pressure will build into the region today through Tuesday, bringing drier weather.
Rain chances will remain on the low side today, so will only mention VCSH for the southern terminals (PGD/FMY/RSW).
Current surface analysis shows broad area of high pressure centered over the Upper Midwest building into the OH Valley, while across the Deep South a wave of low pressure rides northeast along a stalled out frontal boundary. Under persistent cloud cover, temperatures will remain on the cooler side during the day with highs in the mid to upper 60s, about 10 degrees below climatological normals. Low temperatures into Tuesday morning will be more seasonable, in the lower to mid 50s.
627 AM EDT Mon May 23 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a broad 500 mb trough over most of the U. A deep mid-level open wave trough over the central CONUS slowly shifts northeastward Tuesday night.
The caliber of the low level dry air advection north out of KS warrants the update, as does the latest radar trends maintaining the best radar returns across the Sandhills north of Interstate 80. Dry air at h750-700mb will move into wrn Nebraska as the upper low across WY this morning, moves through Nebraska today, and into SD tonight. The models are in very good agreement forming a second upper low across swrn KS Tuesday. This low will move very slowly east Tuesday at just 10 mph, according to timing tools.
A warm front will slowly begin lifting through eastern Louisiana this afternoon contributing to chance VCSH at LFT and ARA during the afternoon/evening. Overnight, winds will become southeasterly along with ceilings falling to MVFR as the warm front approaches.
Still expecting a few showers to pop up through this region later today, as a warm front lifts north. A warm front will slowly begin lifting through eastern Louisiana this afternoon contributing to chance VCSH at LFT and ARA during the afternoon/evening. Overnight, winds will become southeasterly along with ceilings falling to MVFR as the warm front approaches.
For the end of the week, a trough of low pressure will move inland to the north increasing onshore flow bringing cooler, breezier conditions. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO This morning, low clouds continue to fill in the areas west of the mtns even as the extensive ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific begins to shift eastward and height rises start to reduce the depth of the marine layer.
This has kept temps warmer overnight. MU CAPES in the 700-1000 j/kg range anticipated, with NAM guidance on the higher end and GFS and model blends more in the 750 j/kg range. A large trough is expected to sink into the US, the only question is how the expected ridge in the SE will affect its path. Ridging later in the week will be ushered eastward, resulting in almost zonal flow across our area due to an upper low in Canada.
The high clouds across the area continue to slowly thin out as they move to the northeast. Periodic high clouds are tied to a plume of moisture ascending to a downstream jet entrance region on the periphery of Southeast mean ridging. The middle to late workweek will find Indiana returning to several more periods of damp and considerably cloudy weather as a cut-off upper low slowly spins from the western High Plains.
Large scale ascent shifts into the forecast area overnight into much of Tuesday as the closed low nudges to the east, resulting in widespread rainfall across the area.
09Z surface analysis depicts high pressure over central Wisconsin with a stationary front lazily draped across the deep- and mid-south regions. Current surface analysis shows broad area of high pressure centered over the Upper Midwest building into the OH Valley, while across the Deep South a wave of low pressure rides northeast along a stalled out frontal boundary. Under persistent cloud cover, temperatures will remain on the cooler side during the day with highs in the mid to upper 60s, about 10 degrees below climatological normals. Low temperatures into Tuesday morning will be more seasonable, in the lower to mid 50s.
Deep layer ridging and mid/upper level dry air will keep PoPs relatively low over the next couple of afternoons. The highest values are expected each afternoon across the western half of south Florida.
944 AM EDT Mon May 23 2022 High pressure east of Florida continues to ridge west keeping a predominant ESE wind flow over west central and southwest Florida. Temperatures will be well above average once again topping out in the low to mid 90's, except along the coast where the sea breeze will keep temps a few degrees cooler. Rain chances will remain on the low side today, so will only mention VCSH for the southern terminals (PGD/FMY/RSW). High pressure in the Atlantic continues to ridge across Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
and Tuesday After a cold start this morning, temperatures are expected to recover a bit today as high pressure moves off to the east. Despite the warmer temperatures, highs will still be a good 5 to 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. Lows tonight are expected to range from the lower to middle 30s across the north, with middle to upper 30s across central Wisconsin, and lows around 40 across east-central Wisconsin. Although previous forecasts had some rain sneaking in across central Wisconsin later on Tuesday afternoon, model soundings show the ridge pumping copious amounts of dry air into the atmosphere below 20,000 ft. Therefore, will remove POPs from the entire area on Tuesday as the high slows the progression of precipitation into the area.
601 AM CDT Mon May 23 2022 Key Messages: - Rain showers likely midweek - Weekend warmup Midweek rain showers: Cool, dry, and calm conditions today with high pressure overhead will be replaced by a much more dynamic weather system as we approach midweek. The upper level short wave trough currently located over northern Utah will weaken as it approaches the region tomorrow, but still provide a push of positive vorticity advection across the forecast area (23.
Latest surface analysis shows high pressure settled over the western Great Lakes. Temperatures will be a little warmer today with highs in the mid 60s. Dry and warmer weather will continue Tuesday with highs closing in on 70.
Winds should gradually turn out of the east and then southeast late in the period as a warm front lifts north. Cooler and drier air will be reinforced on the western side of the system/northern side of the front today. The temperature forecast today is somewhat uncertain with the possibility for low clouds to hang on later in the day, but I trended temps a little cooler while still allowing for some breaks in the clouds.
1029 AM EDT Mon May 23 2022 Dry and cooler conditions are expected today and Tuesday, but warmth, humidity and increased rain chance can be expected thereafter. Jet dynamics are forecast to dig low pres ovr the srn high plains through Tuesday with split flow dvlpg ovr the CONUS and ridging ovr the ern U.
Near normal high temperatures and afternoon breezes to start off the week then a warming trend to end the week as high pressure builds over the area.
945 AM EDT Mon May 23 2022 As high pressure settles into the Great Lakes, cooler conditions are expected in the Ohio Valley today, with just a chance of some showers in southern Ohio and northeast Kentucky. The high will move off to the northeast on Tuesday, allowing a warming trend to begin.
453 AM MDT Mon May 23 2022 Bands of showers will continue to rotate over Colorado today as a mid/upper level trough approaches. Highway impact will likely be limited to the high passes, except maybe briefly under a heavy afternoon/evening shower. We're starting with a weak Denver cyclone circulation, but this should kick out to the east allowing north winds into Denver. The larger scale push of north winds will come later this morning and bring a little cooler/moister air at first which could help maintain showers along the northern border through midday. The models move a weak upper level trough across northern CO.
Mid level warm air advection was beginning to take place as high pressure shifts to the Great Lakes region. Forecast soundings indicate the low levels very dry so not expecting any pcpn reaching the ground. Due to the cloud cover, temps will be warmer compared to the past couple of nights.
Otherwise, there should be plenty of cloud cover today to inhibit insolation and in the wake of the cold front temperatures will top out cooler than normal in the upper 70s northwest to the lower 80s elsewhere. Cooler and drier air will be reinforced on the western side of the system/northern side of the front today. The temperature forecast today is somewhat uncertain with the possibility for low clouds to hang on later in the day, but I trended temps a little cooler while still allowing for some breaks in the clouds.
Periodic high clouds are tied to a plume of moisture ascending to a downstream jet entrance region on the periphery of Southeast mean ridging. The middle to late workweek will find Indiana returning to several more periods of damp and considerably cloudy weather as a cut-off upper low slowly spins from the western High Plains.
Light to moderate SE winds expected today as the axis of the western Atlantic ridge extends into northern FL. The high pressure ridge in the western Atlantic will maintain SE winds 10-15 KT with seas 2-3ft.
Temperatures will remain on the warmer side yet again later today with highs in the upper 70's within west side valleys, 60's along the coast and lower 70's east of the Cascades. Most of this nice weather is due to a ridge of high pressure building in overhead with 500 mb heights increasing slightly through the day. By later tonight, a warm front will approach the area. This is likely due to the strength of the upper level ridge building in overhead and a lack of moisture. Temperatures will continue to trend warmer into Tuesday afternoon, even if the skies are mostly cloudy.
108 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022 High pressure settling over the northern great lakes affords an increasingly dry and stable low level northeast flow this taf period. Skies then remain clear clear across the lowest 10k ft tonight and Tuesday, with simply occasional pockets of cirrus at times. The high cloud is expected to persist in some fashion today, but will remain transparent especially with time of year/sun angle. Strong lake aggregate high pressure will remain in place on Tuesday as mid/upper heights build across the region. This feature nestled favorably within the ridge axis brings high confidence in dry conditions A high amplitude open trough is forecasted to advance into the Central Plains Tuesday and induce cyclogenesis over parts of KS/MO/IA.
156 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022 High pressure will build into the region today through Tuesday, bringing drier weather.
Abundant low stratus clouds will keep afternoon temperatures several degrees cooler compared to previous days, with highs ranging from the u60s-l70s in the elevated terrain of northeast AL/southern Middle TN to the mid 70s in the west.
329 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022 Short term (This Afternoon through Tuesday): Strong high pressure in the mid-levels centered over South Florida will gradually move north through Tuesday, but still provide for relatively stable conditions for the latter part of May. Low temperatures tonight/Tuesday morning will continue on the warm side, ranging from around 80 in the SE metro corridor to the lower 70s interior.
Tonight into tomorrow will be slightly warmer than this morning due to clouds and slightly increased winds. Tuesday high pressure starts building in from the west.
1216 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022 A comfortably cooler start to the week throughout Central PA after the warmest weekend so far this year. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler and trend below average through the middle of this week.
Temperatures are considerably cooler today owing to a N/NE breeze.
142 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022 As high pressure settles into the Great Lakes, cooler conditions are expected in the Ohio Valley today, with just a chance of some showers in southern Ohio and northeast Kentucky. The high will move off to the northeast on Tuesday, allowing a warming trend to begin.
349 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022 The low pressure system that brought us our active weather today will eject to the northeast this afternoon/evening as the upper- level trough begins to amplify over the southern Plains. Tomorrow another disturbance dancing along the base of the amplifying trough to the west will bring yet another round of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Luckily, coverage of showers and thunderstorms should be less organized than the low pressure system we had today.
The axis appears to be along the north edge of the deeper (700 mb and above) tropical moisture channel along the southern periphery of lower tropospheric ridging centered east of South Carolina.
Expect most precipitation to diminish overnight, however, chances for rain/snow showers will continue in the western mountains as the next trough approaches the area. The next trough will deepen over the area tonight with the strongest energy over the four-corners region. Forecast area will be under the northern portion of the split trough where energy was not as strong.
Temps have been very slow to rise this morning and 15z temps are running some 3 to 6 degrees cooler from where they should be right now. Updated sky grids to account for the above line of thinking along with dewpoint and RH grids to better capture the cooler and damper conditions today.
Temperatures will be noticeably cooler and trend below average through the middle of this week.
Weak subsidence behind the low and drier air aloft may help to limit any other synoptic scale rain chances for today. A stalled front to our south will begin lifting northward early tomorrow in response to a deepening trough over the Central Plains. This may limit surface heating, so went a little lower on the highs for tomorrow, but most areas should still reach the 80s.
Expect afternoon highs mainly in the low to middle 70s.
1118 AM MDT Mon May 23 2022 Semi-active westerly flow will persist in the period with a brief period of dry weather expected mid week before unsettled and cooler weather returns later this weekend. Upper trough slowly migrating east into the central plains with weak pos theta-e adv supporting a few isolated shra this morning. A ridge of high pressure will then build over the Rockies and push east toward the later half of the week, supporting much warmer and mainly dry weather.
1222 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022 A weak upper level ridge will move east through the area today as low pressure moves from Colorado onto the Plains, but appears to be weakening as it does. With this somewhat stubborn ridge the low levels will remain with a southeast component to the wind. CAPE values of about 100 J/kg may allow for a couple rumbles of thunder and with freezing levels at about 5000 ft AGL maybe a little pea sized hail. Otherwise south winds of 10 to 20 mph and increasing clouds will see highs top out mainly in the lower 60s, possibly some 50s in south central SD where clouds arrive sooner.
112 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022 Upper air pattern consists of a broad 500 mb trough over most of the U. A deep mid-level open wave trough over the central CONUS slowly shifts northeastward Tuesday night.
Arthur A gradual warming trend will continue today, as a trough axis holding cold air aloft, slides into the Dakotas. Small scale ridging should keep the rest of the area dry.
1235 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022 High pressure will build into the region today through Tuesday, bringing drier weather.
An upper trof amplifies over the central states through the period while an upper ridge extends mainly from the Mid Atlantic Coast to the Bahamas. For Tuesday, low to mid level lapse rates are more favorable and should yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg with the higher values near the coast. Lows tonight range from the mid 60s well inland to the lower 70s at the coast.