Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
123 PM EDT Sun May 7 2017 high pressure is forecast to keep the weather quiet and the skies clear to mostly clear through the TAF period. /issued 948 AM EDT Sun May 7 2017/ With quiet weather under high pressure over the area, the forecast is going as progged. After a relatively cool start this morning, we will see another day of temperatures a few degrees below normal in the low-mid 80s.
224 PM CDT Sun May 7 2017 Clear skies and warm conditions were again observed across the region today, as ridging at the surface and aloft remained in control. Monday looks to be a bit breezier, but otherwise pretty similar to today, with highs in the low 80s area-wide.
535 PM EDT Sun May 7 2017 Low pressure over Quebec will continue to track northeast. Weak high pressure will slide southeast across the area Monday into Monday night.
Air mass turns even colder and drier tonight over much of the area with cooler 850 temps.
After a day of significantly cooler temperatures, much warmer temperatures are expected by Monday along with a few showers remaining across portions of northern Inyo and Esmeralda Counties.
Satellite also shows some cumulus clouds across the higher terrain of S Colorado. Have retained the low 15 pops across the far western zones in case this activity does drift over the state line. The lower atmosphere across the western zones is mixed, so the main threat would be 50-60 mph outflows, if a storm does drift over the area of concern. Again, there could be afternoon and evening storms along the sfc trof.
resulting from the CWA lying in between strong surface ridging to the east. and a lee-side trough over the Front Range of the Rockies.
Latest CAMs suggest an isolated shower is possible this afternoon as a weak upper wave currently across western North Dakota rounds the upper ridge. Upper ridging will keep the region fairly quiet. There is an upper wave rounding the ridge leading to mid-clouds east of the valley, and potentially sprinkles. Anticipate these clouds will slowly diminish through the day as the upper level ridging works into the region. Temperatures the past few days have been able to get warmer than expected, likely due to the 'pre green up' (dry) conditions.
Clearing skies and drier air will result in slightly cooler overnight temperatures. attention shifts to the arrival of cold front which models show backing into northeast Colorado during the morning. Front ushers in slightly cooler and progressively wetter air on 10-20kt east- northeast sfc-700mb flow. NAM and WRF show this front stalling out along the Palmer Divide and a theta-e ridge surging westward. Deep shear in the area would also favor the formation of a few single to multicell mesocyclones capable of hail up to 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts to 70 mph. Whereas areas farther north in the cooler, more stable air may escape with only non-severe showers and t-storms. Will need to keep an eye on this should the cold front arrive later than expected.
301 PM CDT Sun May 7 2017 Through Monday: The ridge of high pressure aloft over the region will only strengthen through the short term period with any residual cool air brought down on the backside of the eastern CONUS trough effectively disappearing.
Northwest flow aloft will persist as both the large eastern conus upper trough and Great Plains upper ridge gradually shift eastward.
Relatively dry conditions are in place with dew points in the low 60s and no precip echos detected by KBYX. Visible satellite a layer of dissipating cloud cover across the Lower Keys and across the southwestern Florida Straits, with spended sunshine across the Middle and Upper Keys. A rather stagnant upper level pattern is in place, with an omega block in place across the heart of the country with deep-layered troughing across the Great Lakes Region and across southern California, and ridging across the Central US. In the lower levels, a high pressure center is located in the central Gulf of Mexico with light surface flow in response to a relaxed pressure gradient. With the Florida Keys along the ridge axis, gentle east to northeasterly flow and dry conditions will persist through the week.
After high pressure provides a dry day today, a front will move in on Monday and meander in the area through mid week.
55 High pressure will continue to dominate with widespread VFR conditions expected. Pattern is characterized by deep troughing over Hudson Bay, a sprawling upper ridge over the central plains and a cut off upper low over southern California. The pattern does deamplify slightly through the period but the area will continue to be dominated by upper ridging. Surface front will begin to lift to the northeast today in the form of a warm front but it will wash out with time.
After a dry and sunny day today, rain chances will increase once again tomorrow afternoon from the southwest along with isolated thunderstorms as a warm front enters central Indiana.
Blocking upper ridge is pretty much right smack dab over Texas extending north the Central Plains with a deep upper low over Southern California. However, warmer and drier air flowing off the Sierra Madre in the 850-700mb layer will produce an Elevated Mixed Layer (EML) that will cap the our atmosphere keeping the chance of rain close to nil tonight, Monday and Monday night. Sensible weather will likely be warmer overnight lows and near normal high temperatures with partly cloudy nights and a mostly cloudy and breezy day Monday.
High pressure is expected to linger just east of the area tonight into Monday morning. Highs should reach the lower 60s well inland, with cooler 50s near the lake.
A light and variable wind averaged 5 to 10 mph, with a ridge of high pressure across the region. Early afternoon temperatures ranged from the low 60s to low 70s. Again favored the low end of model guidance with mid to upper 30s in the far northwest. Some patchy frost is expected again late tonight in the Freeport IL area, although with warmer temps than last night, do not believe an advisory is warranted. WAA will increase overnight as a warm front lifts into the region. Monday afternoon, the highest coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms should be across the northeast counties. The Freeport and Galena IL areas could hold around 60 under more widespread clouds, while areas south of the warm front could surge into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees.
Generally another pleasant day with slightly warmer temps expected. Another day of plentiful sunshine today as strong subsidence from a mid level ridge of high pressure influences area weather. Ridge axis is prog to shift east by late in the day with a more substantial increase in cirrus expected at that time.
Turning cooler and unsettled for the latter half of the week.
231 PM MDT Sun May 7 2017 Water vapor imagery showing pronounced closed low over southern California this afternoon. Seeing some shower/thunderstorm activity developing over Colorado in the southerly flow ahead of this low. Better chances for precip Monday as upper low tracks into Arizona and New Mexico Upper level diffluence Monday afternoon. This will interact with increasing low level moisture pooling into the east slopes of the Laramie Range and pieces of energy being pinwheeled off the low in our area.
A highly amplified pattern persists across the the nation today with a cut-off low over Southern California and a long wave trough over the Eastern Seaboard edging further away from the forecast area. In between, a ridge runs the length of the Great Plains into Canada. A weak cold front has edged into the northern portion of the forecast area, although the air mass is only slightly cooler and drier behind it. The building deep-layer ridging will dominate our weather for a while. Look for highs in the lower 80s in most areas with mid 80s across inland portions of our Florida zones.
An upper low, currently centered over southern California, will drop south off the west coast of the Baja Peninsula tonight, then move east into the Gulf of California by Monday evening. A downstream upper ridge over Texas and the Plains states will gradually shift east on Monday. As a result, temperatures will be cooler with highs expected to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s across most of our area.
The upper-level ridge axis will be positioned through North Dakota to begin this evening, while the energetic northern portion of the Western split-trough swings across the Divide. The cold front in advance of the trough will be moving east through the eastern half of the local CWA. With the CAA, expect overnight lows to run 15F to 20F degrees cooler for the western counties. Monday will continue with the cooler temperatures, actually just a return to normal. Winds will diminish Monday night while a narrow and shallow ridge rides over the area.
311 PM EDT Sun May 7 2017 High pressure will continue to work its way into the region tonight. Clouds will be on the increase Monday as a disturbance dives toward the lower Ohio Valley in the northwest flow aloft and a warm front starts to lift north across the region. The warm front will continue to lift to the north on Monday night with the rain chances lifting north with it. Lows tomorrow night will be much warmer than tonight only dropping into the 50s in most locations.
525 PM CDT Sun May 7 2017 Latest radar and satellite images are indicating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have overcome some of the low level dry air in eastern ND and west central MN. Mid level ridge axis will shift over the fa overnight. A weak impulse drifting up the back side of the ridge over western ND ahead of the main wave providing enough support for band of ACCAS in zone of steeper mid level lapse rates with a few ltg strikes vcnty DVL. Temperatures will hinge on cloud cover but with more clouds expected with fropa feel temperatures will be a few degrees cooler.
This warm front should push toward northeastern Missouri very late tonight. Leaned below cooler MET MOS for these locations, particularly in favored terrain across east-central and southeastern Missouri. This will occur as the upper low over southeastern Canada becomes elongated NW-SE and the Great Plains ridge dampens and moves eastward over the area.
Subjective 00Z upper-air analysis indicates continuing omega block pattern, with upper-level lows over the eastern Great Lakes and off the CA coast, and with ridging centered on the High Plains. Thermal ridge was nosing into the northern Rockies and High Plains, ahead of an 850mb low in southeastern CA.
Gulf moisture is on the increase with satellite evidence indicating a broad cumulus field producing SCT-BKN VFR over much of the Lower and Middle Rio Grande Valley. Winds will be gusty at times this afternoon, as a low pressure system develops in the Plains, and then diminish after sunset. /issued 418 AM CDT Sun May 7 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): A deep upper level low pressure system will continue to move southeastward over southern California with strong ridging affecting the middle portions of the country. At the surface, high pressure remains over the northern Gulf of Mexico, providing moderate southeasterly flow across Deep South Texas. Cloud cover will continue to increase on Monday, which will result in slightly cooler temperatures during the day.
Warmer with increasing clouds expected tonight as low level S-SE winds usher moisture into S TX. An upper level cut off low pressure system currently over S CA is progged to slowly move east through mon, with embedded short waves tracking to the NE across the region.
Despite nearly full sunshine, highs today in the lower to mid 50s will be 10-15 degrees below normal followed by a run at record lows tonight/Monday morning outside of metro Detroit.
At the risk of sounding like a broken record I'm going to keep this discussion rather short this afternoon as the pattern over the next 36 hours will not change as we remain under the influence of an unseasonably cold slow moving closed upper low that centers over the North Country through the period. The main change from the previous 2 days moving forward is that the low/mid-level flow finally turns to the west/northwest allow cold air advection to win out with additional light shower activity and lower overcast in the cards as a result. Monday night will be the coldest night of the coming week with temps lowering into the low/mid 30s with the potential for frost headlines in the Champlain Valley where the frost/freeze program has started.
The entire Mid-South is being treated to clear blue skies, a gentle breeze, and temperatures in the low to upper 70s areawide.
High pressure will remain over the central US keeping skies clear and winds relatively light out of the south-southwest. Upper ridge positioned over the central US will allow for another quiet weather day with highs climbing into the low to mid 80s. /Issued 319 AM CDT Sun May 7 2017/ High amplitude ridge continues to slowly translate across the Plains with several more days of warm and dry weather ahead. Upper low currently moving ashore southern California will make slow eastward progress and begin to influence the Southern Plains by mid week.
A wet and warmer system for mid and late week. High pressure dominates the weather conditions across the region. The deep upper trough over the eastern third of the nation lifts out Monday.
A strengthening low pressure system over southern California will eject a series of weather disturbances north into Utah through midweek. High pressure aloft will develop across the region late in the week.
A pressure ridge will extend through the northern Gulf of Mexico through the middle of the week. The ridge will direct a dry westerly flow into the forecast area, but there will be increased moisture in the north part of the area closer to a stalled front extending through North Carolina. Short wave which brought rain to the area last night has moved well offshore with low pressure over the New England states also moving northward.
318 PM EDT Sun May 7 2017 High pressure will control our weather through tomorrow. Clouds will increase on Monday as a warm front activates to our west.
140 PM CDT Sun May 7 2017 The upper ridge and warm air will last into mid-week.
12Z morning soundings depicting the very dry air mass that has come down along the eastern side of the amplified upper central CONUS ridge axis.
1218 PM CDT Sun May 7 2017 Mid/upper level ridging remains in place over the forecast area, wedged between two rather potent troughs; one over the Appalachian region in the northeast CONUS and another trough just coming on shore over southern California.
411 PM CDT Sun May 7 2017 Quiet and beautiful conditions continue to rule the forecast over the next few days as high pressure remains the main influence over the area.
Weber Upper ridge shifting east away from the Panhandles today while the closed upper low over southern California continues to approach the forecast area this week. With 500 mb heights falling and increasing high level cloudiness with southwesterly flow aloft across the Panhandles today, went slightly cooler than MOS guidance for high temps today. Closed upper low to track slowly east and southeast across the northwest portions of Mexico and across the extreme southern portions of the southwestern states early this week before finally lifting north and east across the southern Rockies and northern portions of the forecast area around the middle of the week.
351 PM EDT Sun May 7 2017 A broad area of low pressure will continue to spin over the Northeast and eastern Canada into the first half of the week.
211 PM CDT Sun May 7 2017 Low level warm air advection will increase across the state the first half of the week in response to a low pressure system approaching from the Pacific. The upper ridge that dominated the Central and Southern Plains the past several days will slide to the east as the approaching storm system moves into the Desert Southwest.
Deep layer subsidence and dry airmass in between Northeast US upper low and high amplitude Plains upper ridge will help maintain quiet/cool conditions and ample sunshine today into Monday. The main concern will be frost/freeze potential later tonight with expectations for optimal radiational cooling/full decoupling under eastward progressing low level ridge axis. The best opportunity for several hours of temps near/just below freezing looks to be along and north of US 30.
230 PM EDT Sun May 7 2017 Low pressure will maintain precipitation chances early this morning before building high pressure returns mainly dry weather through the first half of the week. Fair weather cumulus has developed in much of the area with the last vestiges of low level moisture manifesting as showers over northern WV and the ridges. Likewise, the northern and western reaches of the CWA will likely fall below freezing.
Winds will be light and variable this afternoon as the surface anticyclone moves across the region. Dry air and subsidence aloft will promote sunny skies, allowing temperatures to warm into the low/mid 70s across the CWA. Dry and warm conditions will continue through midweek as an upper-level ridge persists over the central CONUS. We're still watching where the warm front will set up Monday afternoon as it could trigger a few showers and thunderstorms. However, at this time, it appears that the Mid-South will be entirely in the warm sector with the warm front to the north and east of the CWA.
148 PM EDT Sun May 7 2017 Northwest flow aloft will develop over the region tonight and Monday as an upper level trough lifts northeast offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast.
303 PM CDT Sun May 7 2017 Mid level ridge axis will shift over the fa overnight. A weak impulse drifting up the back side of the ridge over western ND ahead of the main wave providing enough support for band of ACCAS in zone of steeper mid level lapse rates with a few ltg strikes vcnty DVL. Temperatures will hinge on cloud cover but with more clouds expected with fropa feel temperatures will be a few degrees cooler.
Frost and freezing temperatures can be expected tonight as winds diminish. This looks like a slam dunk as sfc dew points are currently around 20 and guidance has been consistent for many days in showing sub freezing temperature tonight.
1121 AM MDT Sun May 7 2017 The strong closed low near San Diego will meander over southern CA today and eventually move south to the northern Baja peninsula tonight. A strong ridge will remain over the midwest.
High pressure ridge at the surface will begin to shift south of the area.
Highs to range from the lower 60s from Champaign ne to the lower 70s from Jacksonville sw. High pressure axis currently providing mostly clear skies to the forecast area early this morning.
/issued 1035 AM CDT Sun May 7 2017/ Upper ridge centered right up the midsection of the CONUS, which leaves our region on the ern periphery, under nw flow aloft. High pressure at the sfc remains firmly planted just to our e, and so our benign weather continues. The influence of the upper ridge, abundant sunshine, and relatively dry air/soils in place will allow for our temps to climb into the mid and upper 80s today.
High pressure will result in dry weather and warmer temps through midweek. Cooler, showery weather returns to the region late in the week as a low pressure area settles down from the NW.
For Monday a cold front starts to move toward the area. At the start of the period, an upper closed low is over Baja California with south/southwest flow across the southern Plain as a ridge progresses east of the tri-state region.
The forecast stays relatively dry for the first half of the week, with a ridge of high pressure building.
Not much going on currently however with mid/upper level ridge still upstream from the southern Plains into the Dakotas. The low level warm advection won't be too strong however with surface winds staying less than 180 degrees. Have kept the low end PoPs across the SW two-thirds of the forecast area, which most deterministic and ensembles suggest for placement.
233 PM CDT Sun May 7 2017 Latest water vapor satellite imagery indicates upper level cut off/closed low over the southwest United States/upper level trough over northeast United States and upper level ridge over central United States. Latest 19z surface analysis shows elongated ridge from the Southern Plains into southern Ontario Canada.
/issued 331 AM CDT Sun May 7 2017/ Upper ridge over the area will give way to approaching cut off low located over Srn CA this morning.
630 PM EDT Sun May 7 2017 Low pressure will maintain precipitation chances early this morning before building high pressure returns mainly dry weather through the first half of the week. Have put in schc or low chc PoPs over this area for a portion of the evening hours, with the highest of those over the ridge tops. Fair weather cumulus has developed in much of the area with the last vestiges of low level moisture manifesting as showers over northern WV and the ridges. Likewise, the northern and western reaches of the CWA will likely fall below freezing.
219 PM CDT Sun May 7 2017 Weak high pressure was across the area this afternoon with scattered diurnal cu across areas mainly east of the MS River. The clouds will dissipate by sunset, with light winds tonight as the high moves slowly east. By 12z Monday we should see a warm front across SEMO. It will push ENE through the day coincident with a weak disturbance that will move SE in mid level NW flow, west of a ridge across the Plains.
Will also be watching dewpoints today as they are expected to slowly climb in response to moisture return ahead of the approaching low pressure system. The high amplitude 500mb ridge stretching from TX up through the western Dakotas and far northern Canada will build directly over the forecast area 03-18Z Monday.
1115 AM MDT Sun May 7 2017 Latest water vapor imagery shows the upper ridge extending through the western Dakotas is beginning to break down with mid and high level moisture being pushed northward through the Rocky Mountains. At the surface, there is an area of low pressure in southeastern Montana with a lee trough extending through eastern Wyoming and a warm front developing across western South Dakota.
415 PM MDT Sun May 7 2017 20z surface analysis had low over southeast MT with lee trough into western NE and cold front into southwest WY. Water vapour matinee showed upper ridge shifting east of the CWA with upper low spinning over CA. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler, but seasonal.
Southerly flow in the low-levels will result in a slight increase in low-level moisture. However, the moisture is still relatively shallow and afternoon dew points should be able to mix out into the lower 40s along the Rio Grande to near 60 in the coastal plains. For tonight, low-level moisture will increase further as the low-level jet strengthens.
High temperatures Monday will warm to near normal levels, well into the 70s in north Georgia and the low 80s in central Georgia.
Showers associated with upper trough axis will focus across the eastern 1/3 of the CWA through midday. Advection of colder/drier air should result in minimum temperatures from the upper 20s across the Alleghenies to the mid/upper 30s across the lower Susquehanna Valley. Min temps will get close to freezing over the central zones but confidence in widespread freezing conditions/warning is low. Unseasonably cool/broad cyclonic flow continues to dominate the large scale pattern on Monday as deep upper low remains nearly stationary over western New England.
315 PM CDT Sun May 7 2017 The Northland's fair weather will continue for much of the week, including Monday, but Monday will be a bit cooler than what we had for today (Sunday). An axis of high pressure extending from northern Canada through the western Great Lakes will help maintain easterly flow into Monday. The easterly flow over Lake Superior will strengthen Monday in response to low pressure in the Northern Plains approaching from the west. The stronger flow over the Lake will make for cooler weather around Lake Superior, with highs only in the upper 40s and low 50s. Areas well inland will reach the low to middle 60s.
H700mb temperatures rise to between 10C and 13C supporting the highs.