Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
THE STRONG UPPER LOW THAT HAS KEPT THE AREA UNDER CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. THEN SLOWLY SWITCH TO RAIN FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. BUT STILL DROP BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 210 FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH MO.
Overnight, as the main upper level low continues to move toward the area, additional thunderstorm development is expected for the southern 1/3 of our area.
7H FLOW INCREASES AS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH SO OUTFLOW WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT STRONGER THAN TODAY.
STRONG CAP JUST AT H85 AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
215 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THIS HIGH APPROACHES.
THIS IS PREVENTING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TO NEAR FREEZING. SHOULD STILL SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO HELP WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER-MID 60S AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AND WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE LOWEST DEW POINTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL ALL WORK TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EXPECTED MOST AREAS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING PRIMARILY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
243 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015 THE LOW CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT AS MOIST INSENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. STORMS SHOULD FIRE IN THE UPSLOPE MOISTURE REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS SOME VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TRIES TO TARGET MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THAT AREA. THE KEY THINGS TO WATCH FOR TOMORROW WILL BE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT/DRY LINE BOUNDARIES. BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME LOCAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE ALONG WITH LOWER CLOUD BASES WHICH COULD INCREASE THE TORNADIC RISK.
200 PM PDT THU APR 23 2015 LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY AND BRING A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE COLD UPPER LOW SYSTEM DEPARTED TO THE NORTHEAST EARLIER TODAY AND PULLED THE WRAP AROUND CLOUDS OUT WITH IT. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY THE BATTLE CONTINUES TO WAGE BETWEEN THE DRY HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT CONTINUES TO CREEP NORTH WITH EACH RUN.
103 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND FRIDAY WHILE A COLD UPPER LOW MOVES FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SRN CALI/NRN BAJA. THE TROUGH WILL START TO ACCELERATE TO THE EAST THEN NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THE WEAKENING WAVE WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH SO THAT WE WILL SEE SOME MID-LVL COLD ADVECTION. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE ON A DECLINE FRIDAY EVENING FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OUT OF THE PANHANDLES.
223 PM PDT THU APR 23 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST KEEPING A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
330 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THIS HIGH APPROACHES.
AS BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPAND INTO THE AREA WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY AND COOL WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
110 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015 /ISSUED 340 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015/ COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWFA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE OLD FLORIDA BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
502 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015 AN APPROACHING PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT.
610 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGS SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER TROUGHING EXITS. AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY UNDER THE HIGH WITH CU RULE INDICATING ONLY A FEW DIURNAL CU. STRONG CLOSED LOW PRESSURE AT 500 MB WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NWLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD AS THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A RIDGE TO THE WEST.
112 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND FRIDAY WHILE A COLD UPPER LOW MOVES FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND.
WOULD EXPECT LOWS TO BE WARMER MOST PLACES AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THIS MORNINGS LOWS IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW BEGINS ITS APPROACH TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA.
APPEARS THAT A WEAK SHORT WAVE STRETCHES TOWARD NW COLORADO HAS BEEN PIVOTING AROUND THE THE CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION (OVER THE SRN NEVADA TIP). AS QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (WITH TRACE AMOUNTS FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS). HOWEVER THE APPROACHING SHEAR AXIS AND CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION COULD RE-ENERGIZE A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. BUT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN UTAH AND TREK EAST AS THE DAY GOES ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WITH DECENT CONVERGENCE IN PLACE WE MAY END UP WITH MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 6 PM NEAR THE JUXTAPOSITION OF THE LEE TROF. WE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE HIGH SIDE IN THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD TEND TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. WEATHER MAP HAD A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RUNNING N/S ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOOK FOR THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20/LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE AS HIGH/MID CLOUD RACE IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS. CHANCES WILL BE BETTER ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSING INTO THE REGION. EAST/SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW AND ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH INTO THE PLAINS STATES ON FRIDAY. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT WILL CAUSE AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO NORTH ALABAMA.
DRY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARDS AND WILL SOON ENTER OUR NORTHERNMOST GEORGIA COUNTIES SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT PASSES. CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHWARD PASSING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN COASTAL AREAS. SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL SEE LOW TEMPS DROP A FEW DEGREES AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THESE AREAS EARLIER THAN NE FL ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER IN. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR DRY CONDITIONS. NE SURFACE FLOW WILL PROVIDE FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THIS AFTN. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT NEAR THE FL/GA BORDER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 80S FOR SE GA.
525 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY.
619 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICTURES ALONG THE VT/NH BORDER EARLY THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN RAIN MIXING WITH AND EVEN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THEN HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S DOWN EAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DOWN EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL TURN SURFACE WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST AND HELP TO PUSH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BACK OFFSHORE.
1153 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015 A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT. UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.
105 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015 CLEAR AND COLD EARLY THIS AM WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPS WIDESPREAD NORTH OF I-80. VERIFICATION OF HIGHS YESTERDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIDGE AXIS SUPPORTS HIGHS TODAY MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
147 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015 Canadian high pressure shifted east of the Ozarks today. Starting with tonight, the higher resolution NAM supports the development of a low level jet directed into southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. Therefore we have focused the highest POPS over SE Kansas and SW MO.
429 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A CLEAR AND WINDY DAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THINKING THAT TEMPS WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING ON THE RIDGES AND BELOW FREEZING IN THE VALLEYS. AS THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST TOMORROW.
THE LOW-LEVEL ATMOSPHERE IS STILL EXTREMELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS. SFC WINDS WILL DECOUPLE UNDERNEATH THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS BUT LIGHT SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE. FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
310 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A CLEAR AND WINDY DAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THINKING THAT TEMPS WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING ON THE RIDGES AND BELOW FREEZING IN THE VALLEYS. AS THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST TOMORROW.
1243 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015 ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA INDICATED LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHEAST COLORADO NORTH OF DENVER AND IN NORTHERN WYOMING NORTH OF RIVERTON. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS NEBRASKA FROM THE COLORADO LOW AND A DRY LINE COULD BE SEEN FROM THE LOW THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. PROJECTION OF THE 0-2KM THETA-E SHOWS A THETA-E RIDGE IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH A SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN BIG SPRINGS NEBRASKA AND STERLING COLORADO. WARM FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER BOUNDARY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST COAST FRIDAY.
HIGHER TERRAIN SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS EXPLICITLY DEVELOPED BY THE 4 KM NAM ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY, AND DRIVEN EAST IN THE HIGH (30-40 KNOT) SHEAR ENVIRONMENT BY THE EVENING, BUT TO A MUCH MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IN KS. AT THE SAME TIME, THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS A 700 MB TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION, SETTING UP AN ISENTROPIC LIFT ZONE FOR THE OVERNIGHT, WHICH MAY BE FAIRLY LIMITED GIVEN THE DRY MID LEVELS. THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE KS/NE BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT.
256 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN RAIN MIXING WITH AND EVEN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THEN HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S DOWN EAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DOWN EAST.
MID AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE ND/MN BORDER DOWN INTO NRN AR. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S. LEAD SHRTWV TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER NE NM THIS AFTERNOON/ WILL BE MOVG THROUGH ERN NEB/WRN IA ON FRI MRNG ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE- SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH AN AREA OF 700-300 MB DPVA AND STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AREA OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /700-500 MB DELTA-T VALUES OF 20-23 C/ OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF WY/CO. TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE OVER KS ON FRI AFTN AND LIFT QUICKLY NEWD FRI EVENING WITH A FEW OF THOSE POTENTIALLY CLIPPING THE FAR SRN FA. THE WESTERN US RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY START TO EXPAND EWD.
354 PM MST THU APR 23 2015 A WEAK AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
348 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MAY BE TOO WARM ON TEMPERATURES WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE EAST. DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO ISSUE FREEZE OR FROST HEADLINES. AND QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A VORT MAX FROM A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THROUGH TONIGHT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT. COLD POOL OF AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION TONIGHT EVEN AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY (H925 TEMPS OF -1 TO -8C). FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS FORECASTED TO RISE BETWEEN -2 C TO ZERO BY DAY'S END.
COLD AIR WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SFC MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE RIDGE. TEMPS WILL DROP CONSIDERABLY WITH THE FAR EAST TO SEE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP TO RIGHT AT FREEZING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL BEGIN TO EJECT RAPIDLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND JET STREAM CARVES OUT ON THE WEST COAST.
THIS WAS UNDER LESS THAN IDEA CONDITIONS OF TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S WITH TD/S JUST IN THE UPPER 30S. THE CLEARING SKIES HAVE PROMOTED SOME DESTABILIZATION OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. REDUCED RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND KEPT THEM MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF A LIFTING WARM FRONT.
OVER THE PACIFIC COAST WE CAN SEE A ROBUST TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST STATES THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY A DEEP LAYER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A ZONAL JET ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP THIS RIDGE WILL TRAPPED IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SET OF BOOKEND UPPER LOWS.
BECOMING EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHTS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR EVERYBODY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE AREA. NOT ONLY HAS THIS HIGH PRESSURE BROUGHT DRIER AIR IN. IT HAS ALSO BROUGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE STATE.
357 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015 DESPITE THE WARMER TEMPS SO FAR THIS AFTN. WE ARE LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS TOMORROW WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF (AND ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCES) FROM THE WEST. EVEN AS THE MAIN TROF MOVES OFF TO THE NE. SUN LOOKS TO BE THE SHORT BREAK IN BETWEEN EVENTS AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW DIGS/DEEPENS AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS. ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT.
FURTHER EAST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROF. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ON FRIDAY WITH SOME QG ASCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROF SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OVERNIGHT.
100 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015 NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE MIDWEST WITH A RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE WEST. WITH HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY, PROVIDING CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHTER WINDS THAN HAVE RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED. ANOTHER COLD AND POTENTIALLY FROSTY NIGHT IS SETTING UP TONIGHT, AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL GET KICKED EASTWARD BY A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE COMING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL MOISTEN FROM THE TOP-DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
403 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS TX LIFTS NORTH AS WELL. MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TX AND INTO SERN OK.
ALSO A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE EAST GULF WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. BETWEEN THE GULF RIDGE AND LEE SIDE LOW A WARM MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN. FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO START MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH AREAS OF FOG AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS, HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE SW STATES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL BE FROM THE EAST TX LAKES THROUGH CEN LA.
QUITE THE CHANGE AFTER THE LAST FEW COOLER AND WETTER DAYS. THOUGH FUELS ARE GREENING UP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DUE TO WARMER TEMPS AND RECENT RAINS.
CONDITIONS WILL RELAX SOME FRIDAY MORNING AS THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS AWAY FROM TEXAS.
1236 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER IOWA WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY AND BE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. STILL VARYING WITH MODELS TIED TO THE LOCATION OF THE LOW.
SO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 60S. ALONG WITH GOOD INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SAT. ECMWF/GFS A BIT CLOSER THROUGH MON ON THE THE LOW MOVING INTO TX. WITH GFS SPREADING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO TUE. WHILE ECMWF IS KEEPS WARM FRONT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AND PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT EVENTUALLY WILL SEE THIS MVFR CEILING CHANCE MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REST CENTRAL KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. AS THIS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WILL ALSO SEE CIGS BECOME IFR LATE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS.
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE ZONES AND THE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST AS WELL. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS UNSETTLED AND BRING A ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA FRIDAY.
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 227 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS. BUT ANY MIXTURE WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN ON FRIDAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
BUT A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS MEANS ANY CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE IN A NARROW NORTH-SOUTH AXIS AND CLOSELY TIED TO THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SURFACE COLD FRONT. WE WILL PROBABLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE AREA. THE 00Z GFS INDICATED THAT A FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MERGE WITH BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION VICINITY OF BERMUDA THIS WEEKEND.
137 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. OFFERING MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LESS HUMIDITY. AND CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT HAVE SHOWN LITTLE IF ANY SIGNS OF ELECTRIFICATION. EXPECT THURSDAY NIGHTS LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE TIME.
An upper level long wave trough shifts east of the area today with an upper level ridge of high pressure located over the Desert Southwest and southeastern Pacific. At the surface, a large dome of high pressure sits over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley with a weak lee trough across eastern Colorado. Mostly clear skies and dry conditions are expected today through a majority of tonight as high pressure dominates the region. This area of high pressure will be east of the area today through tonight leading to south to south southwest winds across western Kansas. Highs today look to reach into the lower 80s with lows tonight in the lower 60s.
434 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH TODAY. N/S ORIENTED CDFNT RMNS OVR THE MDATLC CSTL WTRS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AS AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE ANCHORS OVER ERN CANADA AND THE WRN ATLANTIC. TROUGH TRAVERSES THE UPPER MIDWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SUN. REACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEFORE ENCOUNTERING THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER ERN CANADA. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOCATES OVER THE OH VALLEY SUN. A WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE LOCATES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SUN WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS PUSHES THE COLD FRONT THRU THE REGION MON AS THE POTENT UPPER WAVE DAMPENS/LIFTS NEWD INTO SE CANADA.
Temperatures should easily fall into the lower to middle 50s, with isolated lower readings. Temperatures will only be slightly warmer on Thursday despite the south winds, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The mid to upper level flow will become more zonal by Thursday night and Friday with continued lee troughing and south winds. The best chance of severe thunderstorms may be south of Kansas where the upper level jet will be located and where the highest CAPE values will reside.
BUT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY'S MX TEMPS. FRI SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNSHINE TO THE AREA FRIDAY.
SFC SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO PUSH E OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND DRYING PATTERN BEHIND THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE THE RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM INFLUENCES BUILDING IN FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED PER SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES ALONG WITH PTCLDY SKIES.
DRIER AIR LAGGED THIS COLD FRONT SOME 100 MILES OR SO FURTHER NORTH OR JUST NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS OF 07Z.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD BUT AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH INT HE MIDWEST/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE EAST MIDLANDS WITH AIR MASS LIKELY WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN WESTERN GEORGIA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA LATER THIS MORNING. CONVERGENCE FOCUS ALONG TROUGH IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ALTHOUGH A LITTLE COOLER NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TROUGHING DURING THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGING EARLY IN THE PERIOD.