Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
248 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015 COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL LIFT WITH THE RETURN FLOW AND THE INCREASING MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY NIGHT SOME MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
COMBINED WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT. WE ARE STARTING TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS IN THE VICINITY OF LFK AND THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR. MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT. WHICH MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF SOME MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WAS LOCATED AS OF 14Z NEAR A JBR. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY ACROSS THE REGION BUT GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
UPPER RIDGES ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE WEST COAST AND OVER NOVA SCOTIA. WITH A TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LAKES TROF WILL DEEPEN SEWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE CHANGE WL BEGIN WITH INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE ERN PACIFIC. THAT WL FORCE DOWNSTREAM TROFFING OVER WRN NOAM. WITH ANOTHER RIDGE FORMING OVER THE ERN PART OF THE CONTINENT. THE MED RANGE MODELS ARE STILL WORKING OUT THE DETAILS OF THE POSN AND STRUCTURE OF THE WRN NOAM TROF/ERN RIDGE. AND SATURDAY LARGE SCALE TROF WL DEEPEN OVER THE AREA TDA.
308 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY.
EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL TROF DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT BROUGHT MIDSUMMER-LIKE HEAT TO THE MIDSOUTH EARLIER THIS WEEK WAS CENTERED OVER CUBA EARLY THIS MORNING. 4 AM CDT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST OK TO JUST NORTH OF ST LOUIS MO. A MULTISEGMENT LINEAR THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAD FORMED NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF AR. COOLER DEWPOINTS WILL TRAIL THE SURFACE COLD FRONT BY A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US TODAY WILL FLATTENS TO WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PAC NW BY SAT MORN AS THE NORTHERN STREAM STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF. THE UPPER TROF PUSHES INTO THE PAC NW. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER TUE THRU FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE TUE AND TUE NIGHT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. THE MAIN UPPER TROF FINALLY PUSHES THRU ON FRI.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND.
322 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015 (Tonight and Saturday) Several outflow boundaries have moved into the area this afternoon, as well as a synoptic cold front. The main cold front has made it into the northern Concho Valley this afternoon, and will continue to move south through the area, so additional thunderstorm development will be possible, but as we move into the evening hours, chances will diminish. With the front moving through the area tonight, expect to see slightly cooler temperatures with lows mainly in the mid to upper 60s.
Blended guidance suggests highs in the lower to middle 70s which corresponds nicely with local climatology studies.
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS S ACROSS OK AND N TX. AND THE LOWER BROKEN LAYERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER AS LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT DECREASES. /ISSUED 610 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015/ EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS TODAY. /ISSUED 324 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015/ COLD FRONT APPROACHING I-40 WILL CONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG/DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. BUT THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL AREAS ARE MORE SOLID AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THERMAL TROF. THE 850MB THERMAL TROF WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA IN THE MORNING. BUT WITH THE THERMAL TROF OVERHEAD.
SURFACE RIDGING OVER OUR AREA SLIDES OFF INTO THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE GREAT BASIN REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
The surface cold front appears to be south of the area, with clearing skies and cool/dry air working its way into the area. In the mid levels The trough axis is moving through the area, thus pushing the better mid level ascent off to the east and bringing into the area large scale subsidence, thus the quickly drying conditions. High temperatures for Friday will likely only peek into the lower 70s, although a few areas could see temps get up to the middle 70s. Saturday morning could see lows in the lower to middle 40s across northern Missouri, and middle to upper 40s along and south of Interstate 70.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 10F COOLER THAN NORMAL. THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WILL BE AMPLIFIED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING FROM ONTARIO THRU THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. REINFORCING THE POST FRONTAL COOLER AIRMASS. WITH N/NWRLY FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NV AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST REGION. BUT EVEN LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THINGS DRY. SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE LARGELY INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE.
226 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PUSHES EAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY.
607 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY.
/ISSUED 412 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015/ A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND MOVING SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY AND BRING LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT BETWEEN STRONG RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
328 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015 WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
549 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE ITS FAIR WEATHER INFLUENCE ON THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. FAIR AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO START THE WORK WEEK. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY THICKENING UP OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AS UPPER TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE MIDWEST. DIGGING TROF/DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVR THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EDGE EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A LOW NEAR THE KY/IN BORDER BACK INTO OKLAHOMA. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST/CENTRAL TN IN CONJUNCTION WITH BOTH AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE STATE. BUT CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN THE NW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE STATE. THE LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THRU AT LEAST 15Z ON SATURDAY. 19 SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR ANOTHER DAY. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVERHEAD.
THERE ARE PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WITH A FEW BREAKS IN NORTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY. WILL ALSO CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE AS NEITHER THE WIND OR SEAS HAVE MET CRITERIA AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE CWA AND INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY AND CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD LINGER RIGHT ALONG THE BORDER, MAINLY SOUTH OF HOULTON. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER THRU THE NIGHT BEFORE BREAKING UP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE SW ACROSS REGION AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF US AND PACIFIC TROFS MOVES TOWARD WEST COAST DURING PERIOD. MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP LATE IN WEEK WITH STRONGER OF THE PACIFIC TROFS MOVES TOWARD STATE. THE LOWEST CLOUD BASES WILL BE IN THE FAR NORTH WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES.
430 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015 PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WE GO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE ARKLAMISS AND BRING THE FIRST TASTE OF FALL-LIKE WEATHER.
551 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PUSHES EAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH VERY LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN SATURDAY WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING AND WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY.
215 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015 Cooler and drier Canadian air mass was moving in from the north today behind the strong cold front which brought showers and thunderstorms to the region last night. Surface dew points were in the lower 60s across far southern MO, but some upper 40s dew points were beginning to push into central MO. Will continue to see the cooler and drier air mass push into hte area tonight with a clear sky and diminishing surface wind after sunset. With the relatively warm lake temperatures and cool air mass tonight, we might get some fog developing along the low lying areas and near lakes and streams overnight and have highlighted these areas in the grids and in the HWO for tonight.
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT FRI SEP 11 2015 A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WITH A RIDGE COVERING THE WESTERN STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUED DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE COMBINED ONSLAUGHT OF HURRICANE LINDA PUSHING NORTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE SYSTEMS WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND IN RESPONSE.
253 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE ITS FAIR WEATHER INFLUENCE ON THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. FAIR AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO START THE WORK WEEK. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY THICKENING UP OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AS UPPER TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
223 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015 COLD FRONT HAS JUST ENTERED THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER FROPA CHANCES FOR LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AS ANOTHER LOBE OF THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. THE VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED JET HELP TO DIG THE TROUGH PRETTY QUICKLY AND THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE MID STATE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL MODELS DO AGREE ROUGHLY ON TROUGH TIMING AND THE STRENGTH OF THE VORT MAX. ONCE THE TROUGH PASSES. WE GET A NICE PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE COOLER.
246 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015 Cold front has passed well east of Illinois this afternoon: however, a broken line of showers has formed well behind the boundary across portions of central and east-central Illinois, generally along/east of a Hoopeston to Taylorville line. In addition, as upper low digs southward into the Ohio River Valley, a few light showers will be possible, especially across the eastern half of the CWA.
402 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015 Cooler and drier air is beginning to filter into the area from the north behind a cold front that moved acros the area overnight and this morning. Increasing southerly winds and upper ridging taking hold over the southern U. Rain chances look minimal through most of the week, but may increase slightly at the very end of the forecast period as a cold front approaches from the north.
145 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
319 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015 WARMER TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THUS A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE. MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW SOLIDLY SITUATED OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH THIS MORNING. AND AS THE HIGH SAGS SOUTH STILL EXPECT SIMILAR TEMPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA.
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WAS TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW. WITH OBS REPORTING TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA AFTER THE 00Z TIME FRAME.
1012 AM PDT FRI SEP 11 2015 High pressure will gradually build over Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho and allow for a warming and drying trend under sunny skies through the rest of the week.
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE STATE. A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH MOVES INTO THE AREA.
IN THE SHORT TERM WE HAVE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND THAT WILL HELP KICK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
345 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015 COLD FRONT FROM EARLIER TODAY WAS QUICKLY BEING SWEPT IN THE ANNALS OF UNDERWHELMING FROPAS GIVEN ITS STINGY PRECIP COVERAGE. BUT A RETURN TO PRECIP MAY UNFOLD AS SOON AS TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF A 700 MB HIGH AND SURFACE RIDGING. AMPLIFIED FLOW IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TOMORROW EVENING WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST.
114 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
212 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE REGION TODAY. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AS AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE.
242 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015 A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS PUSHED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WITH VERY LITTLE. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY SO EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S TODAY WITH A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE HIGHER RIDGES STRUGGLING TO REACH 70 IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO CLOUD COVER. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BUILDING FURTHER EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY.
319 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD EXITED EVERYWHERE BUT YOAKUM COUNTY AS OF 1230 PM WHILE A LINGERING ZONE OF ELEVATED FN LIFT WAS STILL NOTED ACROSS THE SW PANHANDLE.
A SFC COLD FRONT SEPARATING A CP AIRMASS FROM A MODIFIED MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS IS PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN TN. MEANWHILE, A RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US. 77 THE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE OH AND MS RIVER VALLEYS IS MOVING SOUTHEAST, BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SATURATION OF THE PROFILE CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON. CLOSER TO THE TROUGH AXIS, ANTICIPATING MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
614 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MID-LEVEL TROF AND BOUNDARY LAYER/SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE WESTERLIES BEGIN TO PUSH ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE RIDGING BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND THIS IS HELPING TO PUSH THE TROF AXIS EASTWARD.
MAIN QUESTION TODAY IS HOW EXTENSIVE AND PERSISTENT THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL BE. WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE LOWER 70S MOST SPOTS.
A STALLED N-S ORIENTED COLD FRONT ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE TODAY. A TYPICAL AUGUST WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING THE DOMINANT FEATURE.
633 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PUSH FARTHER OFF THE COAST TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
355 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2015 The upper ridge we can't seem to get rid of has begun its slow move west this morning and will be centered over the region the next couple of days. This will end most precip chances except for parts of southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain this afternoon.
CLOUDS INCREASING TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF WESTERN GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH. THIS TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD GENERATE SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
419 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2015 MORE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AROUND THE DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE CENTER OF THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TODAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW THE HIGHEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO BE CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
150 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL HINGE ON HOW WARM IT GETS TODAY AND THE PATH OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH OHIO LATE IN THE DAY. PARTICULARLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED.
413 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL HINGE ON HOW WARM IT GETS TODAY AND THE PATH AND TIMING OF THE PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH OHIO LATE IN THE DAY. PARTICULARLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE WARMER AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE AREA IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW.
THE ACTUAL SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND AT THIS TIME, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOCKS THE DRY LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE VIRTUALLY NIL. COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS WELL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO IMPACT STL LATE TONIGHT DUE TO BACKBUILDING MCS AND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH STL AREA AROUND 12Z MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. ONE THAT WOULD RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS. A FEW DAYS BACK THE FAVORED SOLUTION WAS BREAKING DOWN AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U. THE GFS/GEM BRING THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WOULD BE THE LIKELY RESULT. THE GFS WANTS TO SLIDE A RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/THU. WITH THE DEEPER SHEAR WELL INTO THE COOLER AIR POST FRONT.
548 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2015 THE LARGE AND PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS STARTED ITS MOVEMENT AND REDEVELOPMENT WEST. ASSOCIATEDWITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. A COLD FRONT WILL BE NUDGED SOUTH WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY.
MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN OUR NRN ZONES WHERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND NEAR THE VORT CENTER/SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
327 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 OVERALL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERARCHING SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH TROUGHING CONTINUE TO DEEPEN IN THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON NORCAL'S WEATHER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE UNSEASONABLY DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW OFFSHORE THE PACNW.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE UNDER A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
104 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
143 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AND QUIET TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
CONT TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING NEAR A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE A BIT WARMER ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY.
314 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2015 A QUIET START TO THE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK AS DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PAC NW BY THU/FRI.
Areas south and west of a Joplin to Cassville line may see temps in the lower 90s before the boundary shifts south of the area.
A QUIET START TO THE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK AS DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PAC NW BY THU/FRI.
122 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
230 AM PDT MON AUG 10 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SOUTH FLOW THEN RESUMES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS OFF THE WEST COAST.
323 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
/issued 355 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2015/ The upper ridge we can't seem to get rid of has begun its slow move west this morning and will be centered over the region the next couple of days. This will end most precip chances except for parts of southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain this afternoon.
530 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2015 WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MID-STATE EARLY TONIGHT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AREA TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING. /ISSUED 237 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2015/ UPPER RIDGE HAS RETROGRADED LAST 24 HOURS WITH MID STATE NOW IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM SAINT LOUIS DOWN INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. HAVE THE HIGHER POPS THIS MORNING NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS DUE TO SOUTH BOUND COMPLEX. MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE MID STATE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH HIGHER POPS THIS AFTERNOON EASTERN AREAS AND PLATEAU.
WITH TROFFING NR THE COASTS AND RIDGING MID- CONTINENT.
251 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL GENERATE A FEW CLOUDS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTROL THE GENERAL WEATHER SITUATION. THE LOCAL AIRMASS WAS IN FACT DRY ENOUGH IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE LEVELS. THAT EARLIER STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S COULD NOT GET MUCH CUMULUS FORMATION SUSTAINED (EXCEPT DURING THE WARMEST PORTION OF THE DAY). IT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE LOWER 70S BY DAYBREAK. TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE A HOT ONE WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA MON AFTERNOON.