Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A LONG WAVE RIDGE IS NOW BUILDING INTO THE WEST COAST. IT WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. CHARLOTTE RIDGE. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SWING INLAND OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY EVENING.
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO DEAL WITH.
327 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SHIFT SW INTO THE GULF MAINE ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE US WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR AND STREAMLINE DATA PLACES UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY MORNING USHERING IN NW WINDS AND DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST. COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT.
BACK EDGE OF THE LOW CIGS REACHES TO CENTRAL KY. /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/ LOW CLOUDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT ARE SLOWING LIFTING, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WE'LL HAVE TO BE A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE CLEARING THAN WE WERE EXPECTING EARLIER. LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S, BUT THESE FOLKS HAVE PROBABLY SEEN THEIR HIGHS FOR TODAY.
AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE OFF THE CA COAST IS INTERACTING WITH THE DEPARTED TROUGH THAT IMPACTED OUR AREA YDAY TO PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY. 12Z WRF INDICATING THE OFFSHORE RIDGE WILL BUILD INLAND OVER NORCAL ON MONDAY RESULTING IN A NORTHEAST FLOW OVER CENTRAL CA WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE DRYING TREND ACROSS OUR AREA. RISES IN HEIGHTS AND DIURNAL THICKNESSES WILL BRING AN EVEN MORE NOTICABLE WARMING TREND TO OUR AREA WITH MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO BE 8-14 DEG F WARMER THAN TODAY.
1210 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 TRANQUIL WEATHER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN ONTARIO.
THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE THE KEY TO CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY. CURRENTLY AM CONCERNED ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE 700MB TO 500MB DEFORMATION ZONE AND THE SLIGHTLY TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS WEST TEXAS. FURTHER SOUTH THE HIGHEST FOR OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. AS SUCH WE'VE USED A MODEL BLEND TOWARD THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS WHICH IS WARMER ACROSS OUR FURTHEST NORTHEAST COUNTIES, AND CONTINUED TO TREND LOWER THE POPS ACROSS THOSE AREAS.
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN HAS AN POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST AND A DEEP CLOSED LOW IN THE NORTHEAST U. IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION, THERE IS A COMPLEX REX BLOCK WITH A RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW EVOLVING IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RETARD THE MIXING AND DRYING OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING, WITH ONLY GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE NORTH AS DEEPER HIGH PRESSURE AT LOW LEVELS BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED DESERT SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TO WORK EAST.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLER THAN FORECAST THIS MORNING. /ISSUED 413 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/ COOLER TEMPS IN STORE FOR THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. 4 AM CDT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR.
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NC TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE THE KEY TO CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY. CURRENTLY AM CONCERNED ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE 700MB TO 500MB DEFORMATION ZONE AND THE SLIGHTLY TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS WEST TEXAS. FURTHER SOUTH THE HIGHEST FOR OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
310 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 CLOUD COVER WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH EARLIER THIS MORNING IS LINGERING AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN MODELS HAD SUGGESTED. THIS HAS KEPT THE TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S FOR MOST OF THE CWA. AND TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW 60S IN KY WITH STRONGER WINDS. MAINLY HAVE LOWS IN THE LOW 40S.
252 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY.
CU RULE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG UNDER THE RIDGE AND MIXING MAY INHIBIT A LOT OF CU. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MIXING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 20 MPH ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF OVER WESTERN ARIZONA. AND AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED, A SMALL CLOSED LOW WILL PINCH OFF IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WAVE.
221 PM PDT Sun Apr 26 2015 High pressure brings dry conditions through at least mid week. A ridge of high pressure is building over the region today into Monday. A few high clouds are spilling over the ridge into the region today and tonight but skies will remain mostly clear. The ridge will peak over the region on Monday and temperatures will warm well into the 80s with some of the warmer spots topping off around 90 degrees.
244 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE WEST COAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING A FEW DEGREES.
324 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 THE QUIET WEATHER FROM TODAY WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST REMAINS NEAR IOWA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR FREEZING ONCE AGAIN IN THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST TOWARD DAYBREAK AND HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE FORECAST FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
602 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WRAPPING AROUND UPPER LOW SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS SECOND WAVE. COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN ONCE AGAIN AS ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.
LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS THIS MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING WITH DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA IN ADVANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER MONDAY.
1216 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A BROAD RIDGE OCCUPYING MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW PATTERNS ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING A DEEP TROF ACRS THE SOUTHERN GRT BSN. WITH OMEGA BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE AXIS HOLDING FIRM ACRS THE PLAINS.
A WEAKENING WARM FRONT OFFSHORE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS OF THE AREA MAINLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY.
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
1227 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1044 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/ THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE HUN CWA. COOLER AND DRIER BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FILTER IN THIS AFTERNOON.
621 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SHIFT SW INTO THE GULF MAINE ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE US WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NOT BE IN SHORT SUPPLY TODAY GIVEN AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW TRENDING NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS NEW SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO LATER TODAY. PROBABLY THE MOST SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED IS THE EFFECTS OF OUR UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST TO OUR WEST TAKING A BIT MORE OF A PAUSE OVER THE AREA MONDAY. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BEGINNING MONDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. THE DEEP ELONGATED UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA HAS SPLIT APART THIS AFTN WITH THE CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO BECOMING THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION. THE COOL AIRMASS AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP BELOW FREEZING IN AREAS WHERE THE WINDS DECOUPLE TONIGHT. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MON AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST BUT ISOLATED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE MTNS FROM THE UINTAS SWD GENERATING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
VFR TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LIGHTER SW-W WINDS DUE TO LOW PRESSURE OVER SE UNITED STATES MOVING INTO ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE WHICH WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST AREA BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE CASCADE CREST.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY YIELD AREAS OF FOG IN THE LOWER CENTRAL VALLEYS LATER TONIGHT AS DIURNAL COOLING DRIVES TEMPERATURES TOWARD DEWPOINT VALUES. DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY'S. THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL TAKE BETTER HOLD ON TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS WED/WED EVENING. MODELS SHOW THAT THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE FIRST SPLITTING TROUGH WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH ON THU. ALSO SOME LOW PRESSURE ENERGY SPLITTING OFF THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL STRETCH OUT ALONG THE CA COAST.
Rain and snow showers will continue into this afternoon as a trough continues to move through Idaho and western Montana. Places that end up with clear skies and without fog will fall below freezing with low temperatures in the upper 20s.
247 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 A COMPLEX UPPER FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH ZONAL FLOW IN BETWEEN A PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONING TO A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE PLAINS, AND A MEAN TROUGH AXIS CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA.
353 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. ALTHOUGH COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WRAPPING AROUND UPPER LOW SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS SECOND WAVE. COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN ONCE AGAIN AS ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.
COLD FRONT IS MOVING WESTWARD AND IT IS NOW MOVING INTO OLDHAM AND DEAF SMITH COUNTIES. WE ARE LOOKING TOWARD THE WEST AND KEEPING OUR EYE ON ANY VORT MAXES THAT ARE ROTATING THIS WAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO UPPER LOW. MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTH AND THE PANHANDLES ARE IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE NORTH OF IT. DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES DURG THIS FCST CYCLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND SURFACE COLD FRONT AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.
/ISSUED 319 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/ WEAK COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF I-40 THIS MORNING WILL CONT TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD THE RED RIVER BY LATE THIS MORNING. MODELS HAVE SHOWN A TREND IN DEVELOPING PRECIP A BIT QUICKER TODAY AS LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE AREA THIS AFTN.
1211 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO IA FROM THE NORTH TODAY WITH CLOUD FIELD BEING ERODED GRADUALLY AS DRIER AIR SPREADS SOUTHWEST. TEMPS TODAY WILL WARMER WITH THE SUNSHINE.
401 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 A TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH MONDAY.
IT HAS BEEN A NICE BUT SOMEWHAT WARM DAY TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES DOWN INTO OUR REGION. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA INTO THE MORNING HOURS TODAY WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 14 INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. STRONG UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES TODAY. FORMING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS BY LATE TODAY/TONIGHT.
HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES. EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AND MORE MILD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
352 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 THIS AFTERNOON ANALYSIS INDICATES SHARP TROUGH OUT WEST IN THE PROCESS OF CUTTING OFF.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. WITH WEAK ASSOCIATED ENERGY SLIDING UNDER THE RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST.
110 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 HAND ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED AN INVERTED TROUGH FROM A LOW IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN TO A LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THERE WAS ALSO LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST WYOMING. ALL THREE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS HAD UPPER SUPPORT INDICATED IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND THE PANHANDLE. THE UPWARD MOTION WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH IS ALSO WEAK. THE PATTERN HOWEVER TRANSITIONS BY MID-WEEK AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA.
STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE A SNOWFLAKE OR TWO IN HE RIDGES OR FAR NORTH WITH MODEL CRITICAL THICKNESS BORDERLINE.
THE LOW CEILINGS AND FOG THAT WERE IMPACTING THE TERMINALS HAS CLEARED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO MIX DOWN INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
14Z ANALYSIS SHOWING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH HAS PULLED UP NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER TO NEAR THE OK/TX BORDER. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL TX IN AN AREA OF PVA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO CUT ITSELF OFF ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
202 PM PDT SAT SEP 26 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND INTO THE WEST COAST WILL BRING GRADUAL COOLING SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF IN RESPONSE TO AN ORGANIZING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH TEXAS WHICH SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE TEXAS COAST.
MEDIUM SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST COAST. LINGERING ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET. MEDIUM BROAD ANTICYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WITH AN OVERALL SRLY FLOW BETWEEN THE EASTERN HIGH AND COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST FROM THE DAKOTAS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. A COOLER DAY IS IN STORE FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY. H85 TEMPERATURES ARE 5 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS COOLER WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY.
WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING WELL INTACT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THAT RIDGE AXIS WILL INCREASINGLY FALL VICTIM TO RENEWED UPPER TROUGHING WORKING THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
305 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY.
A WARM AND BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS SHOW MVFR CIGS IN NE ARKANSAS ROTATING TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS WEST FROM TENN TO ARKANSAS. /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015/ LOW AND MID CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST IN THE SOUTHWEST AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER IN THE NORTHEAST WITH THE CLOUD COVER.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH BREEZY/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TODAY AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE LOW 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CONTINUING TO EXPECT BLUSTERY SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OUT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT. WIND SHOULD DECREASE SUNDAY AS THE DRY COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA.
252 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015 UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
WITH A LACK OF SYNOPTIC LIFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH.
143 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LEWISTOWN ON TRACK FOR AN EVENING PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING. COOLER DAY ON SUNDAY BUT MAINLY DRY UNTIL A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY. COULD SEE A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS BUT EXPECT SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHERE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT GENERATING A BIT OF UPSLOPE.
ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS IN THE EVENING WILL GRADUALLY FADE WITH COASTAL TROUGH SET UP AGAIN TO PRODUCE SOME OVERNIGHT MARINE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTMS IN CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL NE FLOW. LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGH SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
353 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015 A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, WILL MAINTAIN DRY WARM WEATHER, FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
AS THE BROAD UPPER LOW/WEAKNESS CONTINUES TO EXIT THE LOCAL AREA TO THE N. LATEST MODEL SUITES ARE STILL SHOWING THIS FEATURE BECOMING ABSORBED BY A MORE DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN CONUS ON SUN. THE LATTER HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS STILL POINT TO SOME TYPE OF SFC/UPPER LOW REFLECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN GULF SUN/MON. THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN THEN LOOKS TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WED/INTO THU. WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT AT THE SFC SETTLING INTO THE AREA. ANY LOW LEVEL FEATURE IN THE CNTRL/ERN GULF SHOULD GET PICKED UP BY THIS ONCOMING UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
At the surface our region will remain on the western fringes of a high pressure system centered over the northeast US. Aloft a closed H5 low over eastern TN this morning will continue to open up and leave the area in a broad region of upper level troughiness through the period.
1257 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015 EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DERIVED FROM LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS IOWA TODAY.
303 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG A SOME WHAT ANOMALOUS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING WEST INTO NORTHERN MAINE. THE MODELS HAVE HAVE HAD A FAIR HANDLE ON THIS UPPER LOW SLOWLY CREEPING NW. WITH NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE SYNOPTIC FEATURES BESIDES HIGH PRESSURE. THE AREAS THAT WILL HAVE THE HIGHER WINDS WILL BE THE RIDGES AND THE BLUEGRASS.
250 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015 A RIDGE AXIS WILL STRETCH FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES BRUSHES BY TO OUR NORTH.
301 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015 A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE TEXAS LOW ROLLING PLAINS TONIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW ON THE TEXAS COAST DEEPENS AND WOBBLES TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.
333 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015 Skies were sunny this afternoon as high pressure ridge was slowly building into eastern Kansas. Temperatures warmed a bit warmer than earlier forecast. Areas from Garnett to Lawrence may see some increase in clouds later tonight as a weak upper low in Tennessee moves westward into eastern Missouri, but mostly cloudy skies should remain to the east in Missouri.
THE AREA OF SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW THE LOW SOUTHWESTWARD.
IT WL TAKE MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE LOW STRATUS TO MIX OUT OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE COMING WEEK DEALS WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SOME CIRRUS MOVING OVER TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE THRU THE AREA. SOME CIRRUS AT TIMES TODAY BUT OTHERWISE ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF IN THE FAR EAST. WENT WITH A BIT WARMER GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS 80-84 IN RRV AND ERN ND. WINDS TO HOLD UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ENTER NW ND/SW MANITOBA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. A PASSING TROUGH MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT DIP IN TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN AS THE WESTERN TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE A LEE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING FROM A LOW IN CENTRAL MONTANA. TEMPERATURES AS OF 20Z RANGE FROM AROUND 80 IN THE EASTERN ZONES TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH COOLER READINGS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
AN UPR RIDGE WL REMAIN OVR CO TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPS OVR THE ERN PLAINS WL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IS WEAKENING AS A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD. AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AREAS LIKELY WILL OCCUR AGAIN EACH DAY AT THE HIGHER HIGH TIDE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT.
BUT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
FAVORED BIAS CORRECTED BLEND TEMPS WHICH ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE SUPERBLEND. INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS BROAD OHIO VALLEY UPPER LOW SPREADS MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD. THOUGH IT NOW APPEARS MUCH OF THE DAY COULD SEE OPAQUE MID CLOUDS WITH THE WEAK UPPER LOW MOISTURE RETROGRADING WEST FAR ENOUGH TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER.
516 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015 LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG SLOWLY TOWARD THE MID OHIO VALLEY. AND GRADUALLY FILLING UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING TROUGH.
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND INTO THE WEST COAST WILL BRING GRADUAL COOLING SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE TREND AND LACK OF CLOUDS HAS THINGS A BIT WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHT AND THICKNESS VALUES SHOULD EVENTUALLY MEAN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING IN MOST AREAS TODAY. AS STILL EXPECTING THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS TO HAVE MAX TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100 DEGREES TODAY.
626 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015 AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT.
The overall activity is associated with a low pressure system retrograding across Kansas. Highs on Sunday will moderate as lee troughing strengthens and 850-hPa temperatures warm into the lower 20s.
BOY THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HUNG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THIS MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT SHORTLY BEFORE NOON. COULD SEE ANOTHER SIMILAR SITUATION AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MODESTLY MOIST S/SE WIND FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND.
1246 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015 FOR 18Z TAFS /ISSUED 1102 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015/ THE UPPER LOW THAT PUSHED ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA YESTERDAY MORNING HAS SINCE MOVED NORTH ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AL AND NORTHEASTERN TN. ALTHOUGH THE FORCING HAS DIMINISHED EVEN CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW ITSELF OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER SW GEORGIA THIS MORNING. MODELS MOVE THIS LOW NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN IT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
254 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015 UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TONIGHT. DESPITE RIDGING STILL IN PLACE.
THEN TAPERING OFF EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LESS COVERAGE ON SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DRIFT A BIT MORE TO THE EAST. WITH MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY OVER THE WESTERN AREAS WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE HEATING HENCE WARMER DAY. WILL GO A TAD COOLER ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES.