Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
350 AM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021 Continued cooler today as a front slowly sags south across the region. Otherwise, a stretch of dry and cooler weather will dominate the back half of this week. What happens in the lowest 5,000 feet this evening will determine if thunderstorms develop and become sustainable. If this low-level jet doesn't develop, or is not quite strong enough, then storm chances are far less likely. Due to the high degree of forecast uncertainty, PoPs are generally lower than 30% across the region this evening.
Strong southerly flow will continue to result in coastal flooding along the AL/western FL panhandle coast during the high tide cycle late tonight through early Tuesday morning.
dominates during the short term period, with the main upper Low center in southwestern Canada. The troffing will tighten gradients some and it will be breezy to windy in the afternoon with winds gusts of around 25 kts or so today.
Meanwhile, a large upper level low pressure system centered over southeastern Canada has a trough pinwheel around it and this kicks the tropical system towards the eastern CONUS Tuesday afternoon/evening, but not before a chance for an afternoon shower or storm in our southern tier of counties.
244 AM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021 Upper ridging will begin to amplify over the High Plains today and tonight in response to (and advance of) a potent upper low progressing from British Columbia to Alberta over the next 24 hours.
Surge of drier air will increase into Wednesday within low level northeasterly flow between Ida's remnants tracking through the Appalachians, and low level ridging over Ontario and the western Great Lakes.
A tight pressure gradient between Ida and this ridge will result in breezy conditions across the northern half of the forecast area, especially along the coast.
(Today and tonight) Upper level high pressure will build in gradually from the west today, with isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly in the eastern third of West Central Texas. With less cloud cover and storm activity, temperatures will climb a degree or two, with highs in the lower to mid 90s across the region. Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity will dissipate early evening with low in the lower to mid 70s tonight.
Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, a synoptic scale ridge builds across the central CONUS which will clear out the area bringing a few days of sunshine.
218 AM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021 Behind a cold front passage this afternoon quiet, cooler and less humid conditions follow for tonight through remainder of the week for most of the region.
As we push towards midnight, some of the high-res models suggest we could be dealing with a decent amount of low-level helicity building across the area.
(Today and tonight) The axis of the mid/upper ridge will shift east into the southern Plains today.
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): Established 500mb ridge over Texas extending into the Southern Rockies will remain in place through the Short-term. Surface ridging extending over the Gulf combines with a thermal low over SW Texas and NE Mexico producing a southerly flow allowing for a steady increase in low level moisture. With the ridge remaining overhead no other feature is indicated to provide forcing or lift of the moisture. Temperatures remain at or slightly above seasonal norms thanks to the modest 588mb ridge.
358 AM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021 The southern fringe of the large upper low over eastern Canada is helping with an uptick in northerly low level flow into the central Great Lakes this morning. The cooler air continues southward into SE MI during the day to support the next leg down on temperatures.
High pressure is over the region, with the north flow portion over the state. This will lead to cooler temperatures over E Upper and N Lower for the day. The consensus numbers (NBM) for today, came out a few degrees cooler today, than yesterday's idea. High impact weather potential: None Synopsis/Forecast: Omega block upper level pattern continues across the CONUS with cut- off lows over Quebec and Alberta, and ridging across the central Plains.
While a drier airmass will continue to filter in from the northwest thanks to the ridge aloft, winds at the surface will transition to the south, resulting in an increase in low-to mid level moisture. Highs will once again reach the mid to upper 90s inland, and into the low 90s along the coast.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 78 71 82 64 82 / 90 80 40 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 80 70 79 63 81 / 90 90 70 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 78 69 79 62 80 / 90 90 60 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 68 76 61 78 / 80 90 90 30 10 NC.
Temperatures tonight will drop into the 70s with cooler temps inland and warmer temps at the coast and along the St.
259 AM MDT Tue Aug 31 2021 As upper trof digs over the PacNW today we will see prefrontal warming and downslope flow result in a hot and smokey day over our region. Mid level winds will increase ahead of the upstream trof and our western zones should see breezy/mixed SW-W winds in the afternoon. Cold front looks to arrive this evening bringing a shift to NW-N winds gusting 25-35 mph. Aforementioned front will result in cooler temps (highs in 70s) for Wednesday as return flow produces easterly surface winds.
The high PWAT values coupled with a deep layer of very high relative humidity will create high precipitation efficiency. Early tomorrow, the remnants of Ida will be pulled into an upper- level trough, with the zone of heavy rain becoming stretched out across much of the Appalachians to Southern New England. An upper- level ridge in the Plains leaves northwesterly flow aloft across the Quad State. The ridge will built into the Midwest, keeping conditions dry for the remainder of the workweek. The cooler and drier airmass will allow for comfortable temperatures in the lower half of the 80s for highs and in the upper 50s for lows.
The corridor of ongoing convection this morning across the central Plains marks a region of focused ascent along the periphery of the mid level ridge which will amplify northward through the central CONUS today. This favored precip corridor will move slightly eastward and possibly further southward as ridging amplifies. Ridging aloft strengthens and becomes centered over the forecast area supporting hot and dry conditions with any convection being isolated and brief in nature for mid to late week.
Temperatures were in the mid to upper 80s as of 2 PM with dew points in the lower 70s. Northwest flow will continue on Wednesday with an upper ridge axis building to our west. As we head into the later part of the work week and into the holiday weekend, an upper ridge will begin to edge eastward into the region.
1233 AM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021 Summary: Partly cloudy to mostly clear skies will continue for the next couple days under a high pressure.
A trough digging into British Columbia and Washington will gradually push into Alberta by daybreak Wednesday.
On and off thunderstorms chance along with the arrival of cooler As of 0730Z Tuesday morning, a complex of thunderstorms extended from southern IA through south-central SD.
The flow will become more southerly on Tuesday and Wednesday as the ridge of high pressure slides east and a trough approaches the state. This will advect even deeper moisture northward into the region, and combined with the trough will lead to widespread shower and thunderstorm activity.
GOES vapor imagery depicts a broad dry slot encompassing much of Lower Michigan in connection with northern Quebec upper low. Progged H8-H7 ThetaE convergence south of I-96 may preserve some broken status overnight keeping lows a bit warmer for the Metro Detroit area (mid 60s). Forecast soundings reveal slightly cooler lower troposphere thermal profiles with H8 temps in the 10-12C range, translating to highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Fortunately, an upper level trough axis over the Great lakes will elongate into the Ohio Valley while ridging east of the Rockies extends into the region. This reorients the steering winds N/NW limiting the northward progress of the remnant cyclone.
324 AM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021 (Issued 323 AM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021) Today through Wednesday: A weak cold front made decent southward progress over Lake Michigan yesterday but stopped just south of Green Bay overnight. As high pressure to our north strengthens and shifts south we can expect the front to regain its southward momentum today. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected today especially for eastern locations with highs mid to upper 70s. Similar conditions are forecast for Wednesday with high pressure remaining overhead.
1050 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 The large area of high pressure currently over the Upper Midwest is not expected to move much through Tuesday. A short wave trough coming in from the west is expected to generate some showers and storms over the Missouri River Valley overnight. An upper-level ridge builds in the upper plains during the overnight hours Tuesday into Wednesday as an upstream trough digs in the Pacific Northwest. The light wind layer (<10kts; SFC-4000ft) from this ridge in combination with <20 degree dewpoint depressions will likely result in a strong fog layer for Wednesday morning across the river valleys.
A surface boundary is draped across the CWA, with the low over central MT. Beneath upper ridging, today will be warm and dry, with highs in the 80s to lower 90s. Low-level trough moves over the western Dakotas early Wednesday, as the upper-level ridge axis shifts eastward. Highs will be in the 80s, but trending cooler across the northwest as a cool front begins crossing the area.
Pacific trough moves a little further east tonight setting up a thermal ridge across the area. Overall a cooler weather pattern is shaping up through this weekend, with some chances for showers and thunderstorms at times. A warm sector of air could be met with an advancing cold front sometime Wednesday through Wednesday night. Although, if the cold front and/or a weak disturbance in the southwest flow can move through at the right time, then scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with hail and strong winds are possible.
The upper ridge will remain over the area Wednesday, ushering slightly warmer temperatures back into the forecast area.
On Wednesday evening, a deep mid-level trough will be moving east across the Ohio Valley into the Appalachians, driving the remnants of Ida out of the region. As this is occurring, ridging will be building into the southern plains, with generally northerly flow extending through the upper midwest and into the Ohio Valley through the following day or so.
Will concentrate the highest pops in the far southeastern forecast area, tapering to slight chance or dry in the far northwest - adjusting a bit from blend solutions toward the convective potential over the central forecast area displayed by several CAM runs. Hydrologic concerns will be primary in a high precipitable water airmass featuring at least some tropical moisture, seasonably high wet bulb zero levels (and the high precipitation efficiency that comes with these), as well as slow storm motions. Dry weather with much more comfortable temperatures and humidity will be experienced late this week as a sharp ridge builds aloft from the southern Plains to Hudson Bay. The Labor Day weekend is much more wide open as a broad ridge over Canada will act to suppress the upper ridge and bring faster westerly flow to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
Otherwise low-level ridging over the Great Lakes will continue to dominate the weather pattern today and tomorrow with continued dry conditions and temperatures running right around average with highs in the middle to upper 70s.
Surface analysis depicts Tropical Depression Ida over northern Mississippi, with weak high pressure extending from the western Atlantic through the northernmost Bahamas and far South Florida into the SE Gulf of Mexico. Aloft, lower/mid level ridging is centered between the Lower Keys and western Cuba, while a deep trough associated with Ida is located over the Lower Mississippi Valley.
(Today through Wednesday afternoon) WV imagery shows a persistent upper-level ridge extending from coast to coast across the southern CONUS, w/remnants of Ida over northern MS and moving east-northeast. The ridge will be its strongest over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico today and Wednesday, yielding the highest temperatures this forecast. As remnants of Ida continue diminishing and moving off to the east coast, the ridge will shift north and east, taking the focus off of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Today and Wednesday, convection will be diurnally-driven and orographic, confined to the higher terrain. However, in lieu of yesterday, and with residual boundaries knocking about, isolated convection can't be ruled out across the lowlands, either.
Broader mid-upper trof and attendant front approach the area Tuesday night/Wednesday and slowly cross the region thru the remainder of the week, bringing slightly cooler and more unsettled conditions. Relative humidity values will fall into the single digits as temperatures climb into the low to mid 90s. Slightly cooler and less dry conditions are expected for the rest of the week, with multiple chances for precipitation.
and Wednesday WI remained in WNW flow aloft, to the east of a large upper level ridge. At the surface, the forecast area was situated on the southern periphery of a Canadian high pressure system. Expect plenty of sunshine on Wednesday, as upper level ridging builds into the region. Temperatures will remain at or a little below normal, with highs mainly in the lower to middle 70s.
The low level jet is also weak over our area which should weaken the ongoing complex. Coverage will likely be on the low side though, as a drier air mass remains in place along with weaker instability. An upper level ridge will build into the Plains tonight into Wednesday. Highs today and Wednesday will generally range from the lower 80s across central Missouri to the lower 90s across southwestern Kansas and far southern Missouri.
A general shower and thunderstorm threat again today as cold front drifts southward through the region this afternoon. Ida will provide continued moisture advection against the aforementioned cold front and this will pose a flood threat to locations under the flash flood watch.
Otherwise, look for mostly clear skies and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s to prevail overnight as upper level ridging builds over the region. Expect the aforementioned ridge to hold tight over our area Wednesday, allowing for dry conditions to prevail throughout the day. Currently have afternoon highs a touch warmer than Tuesday, with temperatures approaching the upper 70s to mid 80s. Heading into the late afternoon/evening, models hint that a deep upper level trough and sfc cold front over the northwestern CONUS will slowly advance toward the region.
The exception is MLU, where the back edge of MVFR cigs linger on the backside of TD Ida, with the lower cigs possibly expanding a bit farther WSW overnight while lowering through daybreak.
/Issued 122 AM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021/ /Through Sunrise Wednesday/ A quiet first half of the day is expected today as temperatures at sunrise range from the lower to mid 70s across the region with fairly light winds in place. The highest precipitation chances will be across Central Texas, but a few isolated showers and storms cannot be ruled out in North Texas. The humid conditions will make it feel even warmer, therefore, if you've got to spend time outdoors, remember to take the necessary precautions to avoid heat related illnesses.
However, the upper level ridge will still be centered across the Dakotas, so Minnesota and Wisconsin will still be under the influence of large scale subsidence.
333 AM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021 More seasonable weather is expected with a reinforcing cold front moving across this afternoon.
Otherwise, the models show upper level ridging building over our region into tonight and then to the east through Wednesday. Off to our northwest, a large upper level low pressure area/trough in western Canada/Pacific Northwest will be moving closer to our region into Wednesday. On Wednesday, southwest flow aloft in advance of the large low pressure trough will bring some short wave energy northeast into our region bringing increasing clouds along with the possibility of showers/storms mainly across our western cwa in the afternoon. Not much different in the highs for both today and Wednesday across the cwa with the consensus highs mainly in the upper 70s to the mid 80s.
In addition, dry air was present through much of the lower and middle troposphere, with dewpoint depressions of 7C, 16C, and 10C at 925mb, 850mb, and 700mb, respectively. A ridge of high pressure will build across the Keys through the middle of the week, with light to gentle breezes and below normal rain and thunder chances prevailing over the waters. The ridge is expected to break down by the end of the week, resulting in periods of unsettled weather by the end of the week through the holiday weekend.
Cooler temperatures expected through the remainder of the week. Humidity remains very poor across the northern Sierra and foothill ridges with most locales currently observing values from the upper teens to lower 30s percent. A weak to moderate Delta Breeze persists at Travis AFB despite the lack of stratus in the Bay Area early this morning, but it's influence doesn't extend much further inland than about the Sacramento region where temperatures are a bit cooler compared to 24 hours ago and RH is up slightly. Ensemble means indicate that the upper trough will gradually deepen into mid-week resulting in periods of critical fire weather conditions over the northern Sierra and southern Cascades through mid-week. Southwest to west wind gusts of 20 to 35 mph are possible, locally higher over ridgetops.
Deep moisture flowing up from the south combined with a trough approaching from the west will lead to active weather over the next 36 hours or so, with a threat of flash flooding. The impact of the trough is likely already being seen over western Arizona including Yavapai County as active storms have persisted overnight.
High pressure remains in control of the area today. Have cancelled the high rip current risk this morning as wave periods have dropped off.
/issued 244 AM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021/ Upper ridging will begin to amplify over the High Plains today and tonight in response to (and advance of) a potent upper low progressing from British Columbia to Alberta over the next 24 hours.
An upper ridge axis is becoming stronger over NM and the Rio Grande region of TX today, while light northerly and slightly more unstable conditions continue over Central and East TX. However, the building upper ridge will probably hold over areas south and west of a line from Rocksprings to Karnes City.
652 AM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021 Upper level ridging will build northward from the Southern and into the Central Plains today through Wednesday.
No concerns otherwise with highs in the low/mid 90s and SW flow across the area. A tight pressure gradient between Ida and this ridge will result in breezy conditions across the northern half of the forecast area, especially along the coast.
Look for some isolated to scattered lingering showers to continue overnight tonight into the day on Wednesday mainly across eastern portions of mid state region with lows around seasonal values and high on Wednesday rebounding at least west of Cumberland Plateau Region into the low to mid 80s. Developing upper level ridging will develop in its wake.
537 AM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021 Continued cooler today as a front slowly sags south across the region. Otherwise, a stretch of dry and cooler weather will dominate the back half of this week. What happens in the lowest 5,000 feet this evening will determine if thunderstorms develop and become sustainable. If this low-level jet doesn't develop, or is not quite strong enough, then storm chances are far less likely. Due to the high degree of forecast uncertainty, PoPs are generally lower than 30% across the region this evening.
A dry cold front will cross the region today, producing gusty winds early in the afternoon and continuing through the evening hours with gusts up to 30-35 mph likely.
426 AM PDT Tue Aug 31 2021 Temperatures will cool back to seasonal averages by Wednesday through the weekend as low pressure moves over the western U. A developing trough of low pressure over the west coast will bring us lower temperatures today with highs this afternoon progged to top out a few degrees above normal.
An upper low pressure trough will continue to move across the region today. This will result in substantially cooler temperatures than yesterday, along with breezy winds, mainly through the Cascade gaps, the eastern Columbia Gorge, and the Kittitas valleys. Afternoon minimum RH values will be higher today with mostly 20s to mid 30s percent as a result of the cooler temperatures and with marine air off the Pacific continuing to filter into eastern OR/WA. It will continue to be cool on Wednesday, but temperatures will be a couple degrees warmer than today, and winds will be lighter.
PDT Tue Aug 31 2021 Temperatures will cool back to seasonal averages by Wednesday through the weekend as low pressure moves over the western U. A developing trough of low pressure over the west coast will bring us lower temperatures today with highs this afternoon progged to top out a few degrees above normal.
803 AM MDT Tue Aug 31 2021 Morning satellite imagery shows a flat ridge axis over the western Dakotas, an upstream low over British Columbia, and southwest flow over our region. JKL As upper trof digs over the PacNW today we will see prefrontal warming and downslope flow result in a hot and smokey day over our region. Mid level winds will increase ahead of the upstream trof and our western zones should see breezy/mixed SW-W winds in the afternoon. Cold front looks to arrive this evening bringing a shift to NW-N winds gusting 25-35 mph. Aforementioned front will result in cooler temps (highs in 70s) for Wednesday as return flow produces easterly surface winds.
An upper low pressure trough will continue to move across the region today. This will result in substantially cooler temperatures than yesterday, along with breezy winds, mainly through the Cascade gaps, the eastern Columbia Gorge, and the Kittitas valleys. Afternoon minimum RH values will be higher today with mostly 20s to mid 30s percent as a result of the cooler temperatures and with marine air off the Pacific continuing to filter into eastern OR/WA. It will continue to be cool on Wednesday, but temperatures will be a couple degrees warmer than today, and winds will be higher.
526 AM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021 Tropical Depression Ida continues to lift slowly northeastward into northeastern MS this morning, and is predicted to advance across northwest AL and into Middle TN by 00Z while beginning the transition to a posttropical cyclone. Although rainfall intensity and coverage was greater earlier this morning, a mid-level dry slot has begun to wrap around the cyclone recently. Regarding the risk for severe weather, it appears as if the threat for brief tornadoes will be confined to central and eastern portions of the forecast area today, where low-level shear profiles will remain quite favorable for the development of mesocyclones with any convective cells.
606 AM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021 (Today and tonight) Upper level high pressure will build in gradually from the west today, with isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly in the eastern third of West Central Texas. With less cloud cover and storm activity, temperatures will climb a degree or two, with highs in the lower to mid 90s across the region. Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity will dissipate early evening with low in the lower to mid 70s tonight.
456 AM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021 Upper level ridging will build northward from the Southern and into the Central Plains today through Wednesday.
07z WV satellite reveals broad upper ridging over the southern Four Corners, the remnants of Ida over northern MS, and northwesterly flow aloft over the Panhandles.