Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Northerly flow will gradually shift northeast tonight into Monday as high pressure moves east into the mid Atlantic waters. /issued 525 PM EST Sun Jan 8 2017/ Quick update to bump up rain chances this evening along the immediate east coast based on increasing radar trends, and also to cancel the high risk of rip currents for the Gulf Coast. Greater insolation over the western half of south Florida will allow temperatures to warm into the lower 70s. By late in the work week, ECMWF and GFS are consistent building an upper level high over the region downstream of a low-latitude trough over northern Mexico.
925-850 mb flow will become southerly tonight as the 925-850 mb ridge axis shifts eastward. At the surface, the strong 1042 mb high pressure will shift eastward into the Carolinas allowing surface winds to become easterly to southeasterly.
954 PM CST Sun Jan 8 2017 Southerly lower level flow is rapidly bringing back moisture and warmer temperatures to South Central Texas.
An upper low and a more southwesterly to westerly stream of moisture behind the cold front will bring snow levels down to around 2500 to 3000 feet early Monday morning. We have highest confidence in the high mountain areas getting dumped on with heavy snow. The lowest confidence area is Mount Shasta where a host of data suggests a borderline heavy snow event.
NAEFS mean moisture transport values over far northern Arizona are near maximum values for this time of year, but the period during which values remain this high will likely not be more than a few hours. Though it's difficult to pin much confidence on any individual feature/short wave trough moving through the flow during the mid-week period, enough moisture will remain that chances of precipitation are included through this time frame.
While thunderstorm activity will fade later today, thunderstorm potential will increase once again during the passage of the cold front overnight. Furthermore, observed freezing levels range from 9000 to 12000 feet from north to south. Therefore, average snow levels should range just above 10000 feet but, will lower after the passage the cold front overnight to around 6000 feet. The atmospheric river is progged to shift southward in conjunction with the surface cold front moving through Central California overnight. The lower elevations will not see these values as the lack of orographic lift will cut the values to possibly a quarter of the mountain amounts.
Some light drizzle will also be possible as the low-level saturated layer deepens after 12z Mon morning, but have opted to exclude that from TAFs at this point as confidence in how widespread it will be is rather low.
/Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/ High pressure will continue to slide off to the east.
2) Monday-Monday night: stronger push of low level warm advection and isentropic upglide muscles into the Upper Mississippi River valley, ahead of a northwest-southeast running warm front.
Upper air analysis this morning showed northwesterly flow over Texas between a trough to the east and a ridge to the west. At the surface, high pressure was centered to the east and winds have shifted to the south to southeast. Low temperatures tonight will be around 20 degrees warmer than this morning and we will gain another 15 degrees or so Monday night. High temperatures Monday will be about 10 to 15 degrees warmer than today.
932 PM CST Sun Jan 8 2017 Light south winds continue in many locations this evening, and this will help keep low temperatures considerably warmer than the past few nights. Some more sheltered valley locations have seen a substantial enough decrease in winds to allow temperatures to fall into the lower 20s as of 9 pm, and as such sent an earlier forecast update for colder lows in a few areas, but for the most part the going forecast is trending well.
Low pressure over eastern SD had arctic boundary into western NE and then into western MT. Isolated -SHSN continue over the higher Black Hills. Arctic high shifts east with arctic boundary turning back as a warm front given relatively strong sfc-750mb warm air advection. Monday, boundary pushes into western SD as a warm front with strong temperature gradient across the CWA.
830 PM CST Sun Jan 8 2017 Cold airmass high pressure shifting to the east, and will allow for quick return flow. Drizzle and low clouds or advection fog may affect areas just west of cwa by around daybreak, as moisture fills under a very sharp sfc based inversion setting up with returning warm front. Some fog and drizzle areas may develop as the Gulf moisture lifts a warm front back our way. However with single digit dew points milling around we will again see a chilly night below freezing areawide.
Highs on Monday will be a few degrees warmer than today. The brunt of the snow should be over Wisconsin Monday evening, however a tail may extend westward along the surface warm front across southern MN for the first few hours of the period.
Temperatures have dropped off quickly, especially across the Nature Coast where they are already in the lower to middle 30s across Levy and Citrus counties.
1017 PM EST Sun Jan 8 2017 A ridge of high pressure will drift east across the region tonight and early Monday.
415 PM CST Sun Jan 8 2017 High pressure centered over the central portion of the US will migrate to the east over the next 24 hours. This will be the last night for freezing temps around the region.
This general blend attempts to capture the warming effects from WAA aloft in the lower levels from the west and expected increasing clouds. This will give a range of temperatures in the lower teens across our east, to lower 20s across the far southwest.
753 PM EST Sun Jan 8 2017 Strong high pressure will build over the region tonight before shifting offshore Monday.
636 PM EST Sun Jan 8 2017 Arctic High pressure will move in through Monday, providing cold temperatures. High pressure centered to our NW will shift to the ESE and set up over the Mid Atlantic/W Carolinas by late tonight. The center of the high may remain just to our N/NE and provide potential for a little wind staying up over portions of the FA. Some morning mid and high level clouds associated with short wave trough in northwest flow aloft should move east of the area with mostly sunny skies by afternoon. This will result in temperatures a few degrees warmer than Sunday but still around 15 degrees below climatology.
The remainder of the near term period will be dominated by high pressure that will slowly shift to the east. The mid level clouds will quickly move out of the area by midnight as the trough axis moves off the Atlantic coast, with most clear skies expected by early Monday morning. Meanwhile, weak upper level ridging will briefly build in. Highs are Monday are forecast to rise into the low to mid 40s.
Thin cirrus spread across the state ahead of an approaching mid level short wave and surface cold front that will bring light snow to the area during the night. QPF from the 12Z model runs and WPC guidance had the highest snow totals closer to the Upper Michigan border. The northwest to southeast orientation of the snow will keep the highest totals across central Wisconsin during the afternoon as it gradually overspreads the forecast area.
High pressure centered over the area this evening will move east, allowing south winds to develop overnight and increase after 15Z with a few gusts around 18kt.
The high clouds that have blanketed much of the area Sunday will shift to the east tonight but an increase in clouds will return Monday.
This is coming in the form of a slow moving warm front that has yet to clear the entire CWA. Warm front will shift north of the CWA overnight. Lee-side trough sets up over the Front Range. H5 ridge passes over the region as well aiding in warming. strong WAA will give locales readings in the lower to mid 50s east of Highway 25.
956 PM EST Sun Jan 8 2017 Building high pressure will maintain dry but cold weather through Monday.
Light S to SW wind as leeside trough extends down into the area. /issued 149 PM CST Sun Jan 8 2017/ An upper ridge will begin to expand eastward over the region tonight Monday while the arctic airmass shifts east also, and allows low level winds to veer to the southwest and west.
Cold dry conditions will continue tonight as high pressure remains over the Southeast. Clear skies overnight will allow temps to plummet into the mid 20s at most locations with isolated spots reaching the lower 20s. Wind chill in the lower 20s is likely in the early morning hours.
525 PM EST Sun Jan 8 2017 Quick update to bump up rain chances this evening along the immediate east coast based on increasing radar trends, and also to cancel the high risk of rip currents for the Gulf Coast. Greater insolation over the western half of south Florida will allow temperatures to warm into the lower 70s. By late in the work week, ECMWF and GFS are consistent building an upper level high over the region downstream of a low-latitude trough over northern Mexico.
Amount of warming aloft is somewhat marginal for freezing rain but best chance will be across SW MT with deeper cold air in place across north central MT.
Seems like this is still a valid forecast and just updated the hourly temps for the slower drops and tweaked the lows based on local biases. Meanwhile, weak upper level ridging will briefly build in. Highs are Monday are forecast to rise into the low to mid 40s.
607 PM EST Sun Jan 8 2017 Building high pressure will maintain mainly dry but cold weather through Monday.
To the west a large ridge runs up the coast from California through British Columbia. A little farther off shore is a large closed low that has migrated south form the Gulf of Alaska and is scooping up moisture and tossing it into the ridge behind an atmospheric river.
Freezing precipitation continues in much of the Ice Storm Warning area. Forecast low temperatures for tonight have been raised in some areas where the influence of the warm front is being most strongly felt. This includes at the airport in Boise, where the temperature is in the lower 40s. Some outlying areas and small valleys/depressions where the wind dies down will see temperatures dip back down near or just below freezing tonight. Freezing rain KEUL to KONO, northern Malheur, and southern Baker Counties. Snow levels 5k ft msl north and 7k ft msl south, lowering to 3-5k ft msl following cold front Monday afternoon.
S-SW flow has led to nice warm advection across the region today, with temps climbing above freezing in most locations. With the passage of this trough, downslope conditions will be even better on Tue with temps climbing well above normal into the middle to upper 50s. A cold frontal boundary will sag south by Wed afternoon, which may dampen the above normal temps some across Central KS, but still above normal. If (and thats a big if) the ECMWF and GFS continue with this trend, the potential exists for a sustained freezing rain event (Ice Storm) across most of southern KS into the weekend. For now decided to mention mainly snow in Central KS with a wintry mix of sleet/freezing rain/snow in southern KS.
533 PM CST Sun Jan 8 2017 Strong 1042 mb arctic high pressure over central KY/TN and northern AL and ridging northward into IN and eastern IL was providing another cold day to central/se IL. Latest forecast models drift arctic high pressure east into VA and Carolinas by midday Monday while increasing southerly flow starts a warm up, as strong upper level trof pulls northeast away from IL. Lows will be close to currently temps early tonight and expected to be nearly steady or slowly rise into the lower 20s during the night with increasing southerly winds. The warm temps will help to limit any freezing rain or mixed precip that develops Monday night north of I-74.
it looks like temperatures will dip enough tonight for another wind chill advisory across mainly the north as high pressure pushes into the area.
920 PM EST Sun Jan 8 2017 Arctic high pressure crosses overnight.
Meanwhile, dewpoints at lower elevations across this forecast area valid 15Z were in the lower-mid 50s, and these temps were generally unchanged versus 24 hours ago.
A view outside shows the low cigs to be thin and likely quick to erode after daybreak, but increasing high clouds could help hold a few areas into MVFR through at least 14z.
Upper level ridge is in place over northern Mexico and the southwest CONUS this morning. A weak upper lvl inverted trough over the Gulf of Mexico will gradually push towards the South Texas coast, moving inland on Sunday. Sunday more isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the waters as well as the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads as the inverted trough moves further inland. Temperatures over the weekend will be a few degrees cooler than the past few days with increased moisture and more easterly than southerly flow aloft as trough moves overhead and center of upper ridge lifts further north.
For today, upper level ridging and warming move back into the Central Plains. Light southeast winds becoming southerly and increase to 20 to 35 mph in the afternoon as a warm front moves back across western Kansas. High today will be much warmer with the warmer southerly winds with highs in the upper 90s far west to the lower to mid 90s elsewhere with mostly clear skies. For tonight, expect mostly clear skies and mild lows in the lower to middle 70s and south to southwest winds of 10 to 15 mph. Highs will be around 100 near Dodge City and south and slightly cooler north in the mid to upper 90s. After Sunday, upper level ridging and warming build deeply into the Plains with dry conditions and highs in the upper 90s to around 100 each day.
mainly late afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms within breaks in the high cloud deck. A few locations will see some minor gusts into the low-mid teens this afternoon. This will make for cooler temperatures tonight. More sunshine expected Sunday for a warmer day but with comfortable humidity levels.
Upper air analysis indicated a closed circulation across the US/Canadian border in the northern rockies, with a weak ridge across the front range. At the surface, high pressure across the mid Mississippi River valley continues to provide quiet weather across the forecast area early this morning. Meanwhile, the Highres NMM/ARW models remain dry, with HRRR/4km WRF suggesting isolated cells developing with a weak northward moving boundary. WPC is focusing most of their heavy rain to the north of the region, and not entirely convinced that we won't have heavier QPF further south more into our area based on moisture availability and the nose of the low level jet moving into/through the forecast area.
A low pressure system over northwest Montana will provide slightly unsettled conditions to the area through tonight. The low over Montana will weaken while a new upper level low develops off the Washington coast on Sunday.
A plume of 850/700mb moisture will extend up along the east side of this low, and wrap around to the northwest, co-located along and just ahead of the warmest mid level temperatures. With zonal flow/weak ridging aloft, anticipate cirrus to persist across the northern tier of the cwa.
a low level trough early this morning is centered just north of the Yucatan peninsula and extends northeast across the Florida straits and weakly extends just east of South Florida and into the northwest Bahamas. The aforementioned low level trough just north of the Yucatan peninsula is forecast to lift northwest into the Gulf through the day but during the morning hours could linger across the region with scattered showers and thunderstorms affecting the Atlantic waters and Atlantic metro areas from time to time this morning.
642 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016 Latest water vapor satellite imagery showing upper level trough over the northeastern United States. Latest 08z surface analysis indicates weak ridge over northern Illinois.
Temperatures ranged from the mid 40s in the north to the lower 50s in the south. The Northland will find itself in the wake of a cold front Sunday night, with seasonal weather for beginning of the work week. However, an upper level ridge will build into the Northland by the middle of the week, leading to a very warm and muggy period for the middle and latter half of the week.
A dry trough passing through the western states will bring stronger winds to northern Arizona today. A dry trough passing through the west will bring stronger winds to northern Arizona today especially across northwestern Coconino County where critical fire weather conditions are forecast. Moisture will continue to increase across all of Arizona as high pressure shifts eastward and southerly flow develops.
An upper level trough or low will impact the weather over the Pacific Northwest through a good part of the coming week.
915 AM PDT SAT JUL 16 2016 A trough of low pressure near the West Coast will bring a bit of cooling and a slightly deeper marine layer this weekend.
1144 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016 A cold front approaches from the west tonight and dissipates across the area on Sunday.
Building mid/upper level ridge by Sunday will suppress a great deal of the convective potential. Northwest sections will begin to heat up and dry out as heat indices creep up into the lower 100s.
Kept rain chances 20-50% southeast of a Quanah Texas to El Reno to Cherokee line with the highest chances near Ardmore and Marietta in the 7 AM to noon time frame. Still, went towards the lower side of guidance highs on Sunday as models may again be underestimating the amount of low level moisture and overestimating the amount of heating near the ground.
The cooling trend that began for most inland areas today will persist through the weekend as an upper level trough deepens along the West Coast. The marine layer has deepened to around 2000 feet in response to an upper level trough also deepening along the West Coast.
As the broad upper trough axis approaches the region, chances for showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase during the day today. Otherwise, showers and thunderstorm chances should come to an end later this evening as the trough slides eastward.
The cooling trend that began for most inland areas today will persist through the weekend as an upper level trough deepens along the West Coast. Bigger picture shows a longwave trof progressing to the south farther into Northern California today which will bring additional cooling to most of our CWA as 500 MB heights lower and 925 MB temps drop 1-3C. The marine layer has deepened to around 2000 feet in response to an upper level trough also deepening along the West Coast.
The early morning local sounding shows an increase in the lower level east-southeast breezes, then veering and lighter from 10000 to roughly 20000 feet.
1031 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016 A brief ridge of high pressure will build in for today as temperatures remain slightly cooler than yesterday.
14-15z temps are already in the lower to mid 80s with dewpoints in the upr 60s to lwr 70s.
1052 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016 A cold front approaches from the west tonight and dissipates across the area on Sunday.
Highs in the low 90s are likely from Tallahassee through the eastern Big Bend region, and also across most of SW Georgia.
The low level jet is forecasted to increase during this time frame, and may support an MCS to move into portions of northeast KS, and or may initiate additional convection over any existing cold pools across eastern NE.
Some showers and a few strikes of lightning associated with weak mid level trough axis continue to work across the I-65 cooridor.
Today should be much quieter as the upper high currently nestled over NM moves overhead this afternoon into the evening. Overnight lows will be warmer as well ranging from the upper 60s to the mid 70s. Winds will be on the gusty side this afternoon (15-20 mph) thanks to a lee trof that will develop over eastern CO. After a short repositioning exercise whereby the upper level high strengthened across the SERN CONUS, Sunday will see the high becoming re-established over the Southern Plains.
/issued 449 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016/ Looking at the large scale weather picture aloft, the central Gulf coast is positioned within a weakness between two high pressure ridges. 1 inches today), high level trof/shear zone in place from the Mid- South to across Louisiana, daytime heating and resultant instability. Overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s interior to mid to upper 70s beaches.
There will be a continuing chance for storms across parts of central Missouri today as this will be a persistent area of convergence with easterly flow over Illinois and eastern Missouri and the low level flow turning back to the south-southeast over western and central Missouri. Temperatures should be near or just a bit below normal for mid July in the low to mid 80s. However, the nose of the low level jet and much of the best low level baroclinicity is further north across eastern South Dakota. I'm wondering if the models just develop a little convection over eastern Nebraska in the evening and they just go berserk developing a large system due to the low level jet feeding into a non-existent cold pool.
924 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016 Weakening cold front moves through the area today. High pressure tonight into Sunday night.
1030 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016 12Z sounding this morning showed slightly steeper mid level lapse rates and cooler temperatures aloft around -8C at 500mb. Steering flow was out of the south to south southeast across northeast Florida and out of the south to southwest across southeast Georgia due to the ridge axis near the FL/GA border.
Could see some additional storm development along a cold front and old outflow boundaries from convection this morning across portions of Western South Dakota later this afternoon. 08z surface analysis had low pressure over central WY with frontal boundary into central SD. Today and tonight, upper low over southeast BC will elongate and shear out as it stretches out over the US/Canadian border. Atmosphere should destabilize quickly today as plume of steep 700-500mb lapse rates overtops dew points pooling in the lower 60s. As upper trough digs across the northwest US, upper ridge builds into the CWA. Upper level ridge over the central CONUS will amplify as a trough develops over the Pacific Northwest.
1154 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016 Hydro High pressure will bring fair weather into Sunday.
Isolated showers and storms that formed last night near the Highway 54 corridor have fizzled out or pushed eastward out of our forecast area this morning. Generally, coverage should be rather limited through tonight with the better chances remaining along the Highway 54 corridor.
647 AM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016 08z surface analysis had low pressure over central WY with frontal boundary into central SD. Today and tonight, upper low over southeast BC will elongate and shear out as it stretches out over the US/Canadian border. Atmosphere should destabilize quickly today as plume of steep 700-500mb lapse rates overtops dew points pooling in the lower 60s. As upper trough digs across the northwest US, upper ridge builds into the CWA. Upper level ridge over the central CONUS will amplify as a trough develops over the Pacific Northwest.
The remainder of the forecast looks to be dry as high pressure aloft builds out of the southwest United States and expands across the central United States. As this area of high pressure reigns supreme, the heat will return in full force across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.