Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1054 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020 While main upper air pattern has not changed much in recent days, still battling pesky short wave troughs or MCVs that are keeping convection quite active. The GFS/Canadian push this small upper low through our area on Wednesday before being absorbed by the flow and kicked out, while the ECMWF/NAM have much of it being absorbed before reaching our area. Upper level ridge then tries to build in for the end of the week into the weekend. Forecast soundings show elevated instability, however the low level and mid leve forcing is not in the local area.
/issued 357 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020/ A few isolated showers and thunderstorms have been able to develop within the very moist low level environment this afternoon despite the broken to overcast cloud cover and upper ridging extending from the coast across much of the gulf of Mexico. Guidance has been hinting at a very weak wave wrapping around the northern periphery of this ridge and, based on the overall motion, that appears to be the source of the convection. The next couple of days look generally dry as the upper ridge slides west across the north central gulf providing even stronger capping across the region.
337 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020 Weak high pressure remains northwest of the region into the end of the week as a trough of low pressure develops over the local area.
412 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020 High pressure will remain in control across the region through the remainder of the week. Ridging will build across the Great Lakes region through midweek as a cutoff low spins over New England, and another upper low/trough deforms across the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys. Upper level low pressure over New England and increased ridging into the central Great Lakes should lead to dry conditions for most locations through the short term. There is a very low chance that an isolated storm could sneak into NW PA as a weak trough rotates around the New England low.
644 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020 An upper level trough centered just north of the Great Basin will slowly lift northeast into the northern Rockies today. At the surface, a cold front is situated across the High Plains with low pressure over northeastern Colorado. To the south of the low a dryline extends south through eastern Colorado. With that in mind, temperatures have trended slight cooler, though lower to mid 90s highs still are likely across our far southeast and south. The latest guidance shows a deep ridge that will build north into the Great Lakes, placing Western Nebraska on the western periphery of the ridge.
945 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020 High pressure will remain in control across the region through the remainder of the week. Ridging will build across the Great Lakes region through midweek as a cutoff low spins over New England, and another upper low/trough deforms across the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys. Upper level low pressure over New England and increased ridging into the central Great Lakes should lead to dry conditions for most locations through the short term. There is a very low chance that an isolated storm could sneak into NW PA as a weak trough rotates around the New England low.
421 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020 Stratus has developed again this morning across the area, with plenty of moisture (as displayed by soundings) through the lowest 5k ft. Models have come into more general agreement regarding the timing of today's front/trough and convective development. 5 inches and given the amount of moisture present in the lower levels. Temperatures Wednesday will be slightly cooler as well behind the front.
219 AM PDT Tue Jun 30 2020 A trough of low pressure over the western states will weaken with high pressure to the south and east expanding into southern California later in the week through the weekend.
Trended toward the later solution since the upper level trough doesn't progress eastward very quickly, so the storms should be slow to advance to the east as well. A large upper level ridge will build across the region.
635 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020 An upper level trough will be over the eastern US through much of week. Late in the week, the closed upper low will move east and should be replaced by a weak upper trough. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with lows overnight near 70 degrees.
Today Through Wednesday Night Unstable quasi-zonal flow in the mid levels will persist through today as a large scale upper trough pivots across the Plains. High dewpoint temperatures will drive heat indices into the lower 100s and we will likely exceed Heat Advisory criteria over some portion of the area, but deferring headlines for now so the areal extent of heat indices of 105+ degrees can be adjusted.
The upper low begins to move south and off the Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday night.
648 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020 A upper level area of low pressure will remain stalled over New England through midweek with showers and afternoon thunderstorms.
646 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020 The threat for thunderstorms with heavy rain continues west of the missouri river this morning, as a vigorous short wave trough at h500 moves north through western North Dakota today. A negatively-tilted middle- and upper-level trough will eject from the Rockies into the Northern High Plains by this evening, setting the stage for an active thunderstorm event as a frontal zone also sharpens and shifts eastward. The early-day convection casts some doubt on the extent of diurnal heating in western ND and the placement of the surface front by the time larger-scale ascent approaches the area in tandem with the negatively-tilted trough.
959 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020 Weak high pressure remains northwest of the region into the end of the week as a trough of low pressure develops over the local area. Low pressure swirling INVOF New England will remain the dominate system.
1048 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020 Slow-moving upper level low over New England will lift out by the weekend and be replaced by a broader Northeast U. trough. An increase in cloud cover with slightly cooler air aloft will drop highs back 2 to 5 degrees with the greatest 24hr change over the far northeast zones.
The jet will continue to veer with decent moisture convergence on nose of jet interacting with remnant outflow boundaries and trough that extends southward along Mississippi River valley. As for high temperatures today, will remain cooler due to clouds and precipitation with the warmest temperatures over central Missouri. The warm front will lift slowly northward tonight with another MCS developing and sliding eastward along boundary. By Wednesday, warm front should shift just north of forecast area with scattered showers and storms possible in the warm sector. Byrd Upper level ridge will continue to back build over the central Plains with best chances of some showers and storms on the eastern periphery of the ridge, especially for our Illinois counties for the remainder of the forecast period.
441 AM MDT Tue Jun 30 2020 Current surface analysis shows cool front still nearly stationary across western SD, generally from near Lemmon to east of Pine Ridge. Upper level analysis shows low pressure over far southwest MT, with south-southwest flow across the northern high Plains. Upper level low will track northward across western MT as the ridge to the east of the region remains strong. A wide range of temperatures are expected today, from the lower 70s across northeast WY, the Black Hills, and far northwest SD to the upper 80s over south central SD. Upper low moves into western Canada Wednesday morning with a much drier airmass in place. Upper level ridge rebuilds back to the west across the Plains late week, with hot conditions returning through the holiday weekend.
An upper level trough will exit the Central Rockies and move northeast towards Nebraska late today as a surface cold front drops south into northwest Kansas. As this upper level wave crosses western Kansas early tonight there will be a chance for some widely scattered thunderstorms along this cold front. Southwest Kansas will be north of a cold front on Wednesday which will be located across northern Oklahoma and the panhandle of Texas.
1005 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020 Upper low pressure will linger across the area through Wednesday with scattered showers and a few afternoon or early evening thunderstorms.
A negatively-tilted middle- and upper-level trough will eject from the Rockies into the Northern High Plains by this evening, setting the stage for an active thunderstorm event as a frontal zone also sharpens and shifts eastward. The early-day convection casts some doubt on the extent of diurnal heating in western ND and the placement of the surface front by the time larger-scale ascent approaches the area in tandem with the negatively-tilted trough.
The base of an upper level trough will swing across the Panhandles today before lifting north into southwest Canada as an upper level ridge begins to build in southeast Texas. A low level thermal ridge sets up similarly to yesterday. A weak cold front will push south across the area Wednesday morning bringing with it light north winds and some shallow moisture. Low and high temperatures Wednesday may be up to 5 degrees cooler, but nothing significant.
A mid level ridge will continue to move westward across the area today. Western areas will be more under the influence of the mid level ridge leading to a lower coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
A gradual warming trend will commence today as high pressure builds across the region.
/issued 358 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): A mid-level ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico will continue to retrograde westward over Southern Texas today. High temperatures today will be very similar to yesterday, perhaps a degree or two warmer with highs generally in the mid-upper 90s to lower 100s out west. Widespread heat indices between 105 and 110 degrees are likely again today, with slightly warmer heat indices possible across Zapata and western Starr Counties. High temperatures on Wednesday are expected be about a degree or two warmer than today.
High pressure was centered across the Gulf of Mexico, with an upper closed low slowly lifting northeast from Idaho to Montana. A cold front will bring "cooler" weather to the area today, with high temperatures mainly in the upper 80s to upper 90s. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary as it pushes through the High Plains in the afternoon and evening, and a strong disturbance moves through the flow. On Wednesday, the ridging across the southern CONUS begins to push north, forcing the aforementioned trough northward as well. The cooling trend continues behind the cold front, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. This trough will move northward, towards western Canada, as a upper-level ridge build into the High Plains from Mexico.
The upper level storm system has elongated and the southern portion of the trough will impact the region today into tonight. Along and east of the continental divide, the morning showers will slowly decrease only to be replaced by afternoon showers and storms as the trough axis moves through during max heating. Lows tonight will be in 30s west of the divide with some frost and local freezing temps in some places. Wednesday looks dry and warmer for most of the area.
330 AM MDT Tue Jun 30 2020 Current surface analysis shows cool front still nearly stationary across western SD, generally from near Lemmon to east of Pine Ridge. Upper level analysis shows low pressure over far southwest MT, with south-southwest flow across the northern high Plains. Upper level low will track northward across western MT as the ridge to the east of the region remains strong. A wide range of temperatures are expected today, from the lower 70s across northeast WY, the Black Hills, and far northwest SD to the upper 80s over south central SD. Upper low moves into western Canada Wednesday morning with a much drier airmass in place. Upper level ridge rebuilds back to the west across the Plains late week, with hot conditions returning through the holiday weekend.
639 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020 Stratus has developed again this morning across the area, with plenty of moisture (as displayed by soundings) through the lowest 5k ft. Models have come into more general agreement regarding the timing of today's front/trough and convective development. 5 inches and given the amount of moisture present in the lower levels. Temperatures Wednesday will be slightly cooler as well behind the front.
/issued 326 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020/ Messy weather pattern will set up over the Mid-South at least through the end of the week as an upper trough currently over the Ohio and Mid-Mississippi River Valleys sinks south into the Tennessee River Valley. Disturbances will move through the trough and will set off several rounds of convection over the Mid-South.
Recent visible satellite highlights cloud streamers already developing north of the Lower Keys.
A trough is moving across the western half of the CONUS this morning and the upper disturbance will move north/northeast causing the trough to become negatively tilted. This disturbance will move a cold front into the region from the west.
642 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020 Slow-moving upper level low over New England will lift out by the weekend and be replaced by a broader Northeast U. trough. Skies are mostly clear throughout central PA as upper low continues to spin over New England and a lobe of mid level cloud extends from the Catskills to the Pocono Plateau and Mid Susq River Valley. Upper trough axis is progged to extend a bit further south into the Mid Atlantic region today, gaining slightly greater influence over sensible weather across the east.
727 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020 Upper low pressure will linger across the area through Wednesday with scattered showers and a few afternoon or early evening thunderstorms.
Surface pressure gradient and northerly winds have decreased overnight as upper level trough shifts northward. Afternoon highs will be about 3 to 5 degrees warmer than yesterday, a little above normal levels. A Delta breeze with cooler temperatures returns this later today and tonight in influenced areas. The departing upper trough will get replenished with a weaker system which sets up over Pacific Northwest and Upper Intermountain West by mid-week. This lowering of heights will keep general troughing over the region, which will allow near normal temperatures to prevail. Valley and Delta high temperatures will run in the low 90s, locally up to 95 degrees in some spots through Wednesday.
High pressure over the East Pacific will remain mostly in control of our weather through this weekend, with dry conditions expected to prevail across Northwest California. High pressure offshore will continue to nose into the region this week and promote dry and stable conditions across Northwest California. Several mid to upper-level troughs are forecast to drop southward from Western Canada/the Gulf Alaska and into the Pacific Northwest through this weekend. This general troughiness over the Pacific Northwest will help to keep temperatures in check for the foreseeable future. That being said, interior highs will still be warm in some spots, climbing back into the low 90s in the warmer interior valleys starting today.
718 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020 Slow-moving upper level low over New England will lift out by the weekend and be replaced by a broader Northeast U. trough. Skies are mostly clear throughout central PA as upper low continues to spin over New England and a lobe of mid level cloud extends from the Catskills to the Pocono Plateau and Mid Susq River Valley. Upper trough axis is progged to extend a bit further south into the Mid Atlantic region today, gaining slightly greater influence over sensible weather across the east.
640 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020 High pressure will remain in control across the region through the remainder of the week. Ridging will build across the Great Lakes region through midweek as a cutoff low spins over New England, and another upper low/trough deforms across the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys. Upper level low pressure over New England and increased ridging into the central Great Lakes should lead to dry conditions for most locations through the short term. There is a very low chance that an isolated storm could sneak into NW PA as a weak trough rotates around the New England low.
412 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020 An upper level trough is over the western part of the country with westerly flow over West Texas and southeast New Mexico.
407 AM PDT Tue Jun 30 2020 A low pressure system will keep temperatures below normal Tuesday. High pressure over the Desert Southwest will then build later this week for a warming trend. The low pressure trough which brought gusty winds and well below normal temperatures to central California continues to swing away to the east, leaving us in a dry northwesterly flow on the backside of the trough. A high pressure ridge will attempt to build westward by Wednesday and temperatures will trend upward to right around normal.
The threat for thunderstorms with heavy rain continues west of the missouri river this morning, as a vigorous short wave trough at h500 moves north through western North Dakota today. A negatively-tilted middle- and upper-level trough will eject from the Rockies into the Northern High Plains by this evening, setting the stage for an active thunderstorm event as a frontal zone also sharpens and shifts eastward. The early-day convection casts some doubt on the extent of diurnal heating in western ND and the placement of the surface front by the time larger-scale ascent approaches the area in tandem with the negatively-tilted trough.
A departing low pressure system will bring a few showers and maybe an afternoon thunderstorm to far northeast Nevada this afternoon. A steady west wind on the backside of the low will be present during the late morning and afternoon hours today and Wednesday.
/issued 412 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020/ An upper level trough is over the western part of the country with westerly flow over West Texas and southeast New Mexico.
High pressure to the south and a trough to the north will maintain a west to southwesterly flow through the week. Showers and thunderstorms will increase by mid week as an upper level trough develops over the southeast.
After a mild day yesterday, high pressure builds into the Great Plains and the Rocky Mountains, while a weak trough remains near the U.
This activity could linger beyond 00z as a cold front slides southward this evening into tonight. MA Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 70 84 69 88 / 50 50 80 70 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 68 85 69 87 / 50 40 80 60 30 Oak Ridge, TN 83 68 85 68 88 / 60 40 80 60 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 65 83 65 86 / 60 40 70 40 30.
648 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020 Weak high pressure remains northwest of the region into the end of the week as a trough of low pressure develops over the local area.
Farther east, temperatures will be a little cooler but humidity higher, resulting in Heat Index values between 105 and 107 degrees.
TFJ Synopsis: The upper level low currently over western Montana will begin to open up and move slowly northeast through the area, then re- close over southern Alberta on Wednesday. Meanwhile, an upper low over northern British Columbia will drop south into Washington by Wednesday, being absorbed by the low in Alberta. This low will drift northward into northern Alberta late in the week, allowing a ridge to build from the Desert Southwest to the Upper Mississippi Valley.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): 500 mb mid-level ridging has built westward over the region and will remain in control across the state through the short term period. At the surface, high pressure extending into the Gulf of Mexico and dryline/thermal low pressure across the Sierra Madre Oriental will result in moderate to breezy south to southeasterly winds.
High pressure building over the area will bring dry weather but continued heat in for the holiday weekend.
Wednesday is expected to be a few degrees warmer than today as the mid level ridge strengthens over the region.
224 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020 Hot weather continues across the forecast area as temperatures soar into the lower 100s. The dryline continues to mix east across the Rolling Plains at this time, leaving dew points and humidity in the lower 30 deg F range and lower teens, respectively. Steamy overnight lows are expected in the low Rolling Plains, with temperatures struggling to fall below the middle 70s. Temperatures will cool a bit in response to the mid-level pattern changing to a ridge over the Desert Southwest and north to northwesterly flow across the forecast area.
The upper level ridge over the central U. As the ridge flattens, longer range models show an upper wave sliding along top.
259 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2020 Showers continue throughout the day, today, gradually ending throughout north central MT overnight, and lingering along The Rocky Mountain Front, and mostly the higher elevations of central and southwest Montana on Wednesday. The trough that has been impacting The Treasure State continues to slowly rotate over the region with precipitation expected to continue throughout the day, gradually decreasing as the afternoon and evening progress. Embedded thunderstorms are possible this evening, especially over southwest Montana and the higher elevations of central Montana. Wednesday, with westerly winds setting up across the area, most precipitation will be expected to fall in the higher elevations, as gusty westerly winds favor some drying along the plains.
This is a little west of the previous forecast and is based on post frontal thunderstorms forming in addition to storms developing along a cold front which is slowing up across cntl Nebraska this afternoon. The rest of the forecast Wednesday and Wednesday night is dry as a result of Pacific high pressure building through the region. An upper level ridge of subtropical high pressure centered over the nrn Gulf of Mexico this morning will build north through Texas and into Nebraska this week. The GFS and ECM both show an attendant plume of subtropical moisture moving north with the ridge.
The airmass is expected to remain capped for surface based convection ahead of the dry-line/cold front this evening. However, convection later this evening across the high Plains into Nebraska associated with the PV anomaly just behind the front could develop/tail southward into northern portions of central Kansas along/north of I-70 overnight. Slightly cooler (less hot) air looks to advect across central Kansas on Wednesday as the weak cold front settles into southern Kansas.
This is a result of a deep trough over the Northern Rockies. Temps have been cooler than normal with readings in the 60s to lower 70s. Said trough will lift north a bit with dry air moving in from the SW. Later in the week, the upper trough will weaken and leave Montana under a weak SW flow.
236 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2020 Neg tilted upper trough axis now lifting northeast over eastern Wyoming with some light showers along it, with other showers and a few storms out over Carbon county. Dry and warmer conditions across the CWA Wednesday with the upper flow gradually turning swly as a weakening upper low drifts north over sw Canada and upper ridging builds northward over the central CONUS.
This will keep a trough over the northwest U. Upper level trough is anchored over central ID with wrap around moisture continuing to impact SW Idaho and SE Oregon this afternoon.
By tomorrow, the upper ridge will slowly slide eastward, along with the low level thermal ridge, and heights will increase.
Late tomorrow morning, a cold front from a low pressure system currently across North Dakota will move east throughout the day and bring another chance for showers and thunderstorms for our area. Wednesday night the cold front should move out of our area as an upper level ridge should dominate over the Northland.