Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Issued 1017 AM CDT WED SEP 7 2016) This morning's commute should have been a nice one, at least weather wise, with overnight lows ranging from the low to upper 60s across the TN Valley. The upper-level ridge is still anchored across much of the SE, allowing today to feel like a rinse and repeat of yesterday, besides the cloud cover in the NE. The clouds are slowing down the temp trend a little bit this morning, with current temps in the upper 70s/lower 80s compared to NW AL in the mid 80s, but afternoon temps are still expected to reach the low/mid 90s.
Mid to upper ridge of high pressure will continue to build over much of the deep south generally from Texas to the northern Florida penisula through tonight. With plenty of sunshine along with increased subsidence across the region will lean towards the warmer mos numbers for highs today and adjust for better consistency with surrounding wfos. With mostly clear skies tonight low temps will range from the mid 60s inland and the lower 70s along the immediate coast.
The 8 pm EDT surface and upper air analyses showed a deep layer ridge across much of the Southeast. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 90s, However, with dewpoints falling to around 60 F by mid afternoon, the apparent temperature will be close to the actual temperature.
741 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 High pressure will extend over the area from the south through the end of the week with low pressure well to the north.
The ridge of high pressure that has brought warm and dry weather to eastern Kentucky the past several days will remain in place for the next couple of days. Cloud cover will gradually increase through out the day tomorrow, however, as weak cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. The progress of this front is expected to be very slow due to the strong influence of the aforementioned ridge of high pressure. The upper level ridge that has been dominating across the southeastern CONUS will break down as a short wave trough will move from the Continental Divide, to the northern Plains, and eventually the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions by the weekend.
A drier airmass has moved over the area, and when combined with subsidence from upper level high pressure situated over the Lower Mississippi river Valley, highs in the low to mid 90s over the majority of the area look to be ontrack. Mid to upper ridge of high pressure will continue to build over much of the deep south generally from Texas to the northern Florida penisula through tonight. With plenty of sunshine along with increased subsidence across the region will lean towards the warmer mos numbers for highs today and adjust for better consistency with surrounding wfos. With mostly clear skies tonight low temps will range from the mid 60s inland and the lower 70s along the immediate coast.
High temps today will be mostly in the lower to mid 70s. While the predominant flow in the lower to mid levels remains westerly creating a drying downslope flow off the higher terrain for our western zones, there is a moist and unstable air mass in our east thanks to high theta-e levels.
A trough or the remains of Newton will keep rain chances fairly high for western and northern Oklahoma on Thursday.
/DC/ Overall a very quiet afternoon continues to be in store as 597 upper ridging and drier air wedging from the east will keep the area mostly dry for the afternoon. We should efficiently mix into the low to mid 90s in the east. Water vapor imagery shows the dry air aloft being expansive over the area and we may be able to mix out dewpoints to the lower 60s in the east. Higher PW's closer to 2 inches will help dewpoints hold up in the lower 70s. Thus, could have some heat indices peaking above 100 degrees in the ArkLaMiss Delta but only sporadic areas in the far northwest could be slightly warmer.
A tail end of a cold front will brush western Washington late today and tonight accompanied by light rain, mainly over the north part of Western Washington this afternoon and evening.
730 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 Aviation A slow moving cold front will bring periods of heavy rain in thunderstorms today and tonight. Some local flooding is possible before the showers taper off and end on Thursday as the cold front clears LOwer Michigan.
Dry weather along with warmer temperatures are on tap through the weekend.
Subjective 00Z upper-air analysis indicates an upper-level trough from AB into ID/NV/AZ, a broad upper high centered in the lower MS River valley, and southwesterly flow across the central US in between. Confidence remains on the low side regarding evolution today, with no particular model really latching on to evolution so far this evening/tonight. In general, the persistent convection across central to northeastern NE and into northwestern IA is occurring on the nose of isentropic lift above the cold front and should persist into at least the early morning. Some lingering precip is possible this evening, but focus should shift south as true synoptic cold front moves through this evening, shunting moisture and instability southward. Until cold front sweeps moisture southward, it seems that any storms could at least produce locally heavy rainfall.
This is where the highest POPs will be, mainly 30-40 percent chance.
Strong high pressure well established over the region will remain entrenched across the CWA through the short term. The main weather impact will be the heat with the center of the 597dm ridge moving fairly close to South Texas temperatures to peak the next few days. Temperatures 4 to 8 degrees above seasonal averages will be common with highs ranging from the mid to upper 90's to lower 100s add in the high dew point air, courtesy of the southeast flow, heat indices once again will approach 110 degrees today and again Thursday.
/Issued 402 AM CDT WED SEP 7 2016/ Another hot and humid day on tap across the area as upper level high pressure across much of the southern CONUS remains in control. Will keep low pops in across the north tonight as an upper wave lifting through the plains helps push the much discussed cold front a little closer to the area.
700 AM CDT WED SEP 7 2016 07z/2am surface analysis shows high pressure over Tennessee, while slow-moving cold front remains draped further northwest from the Upper Peninsula of Michigan southwestward to Nebraska. Afternoon high temperatures will once again reach the lower 90s, while heat index readings range from 100 to 105 degrees. While synoptic forcing will be absent, a few of the high-res models such as the WRF-ARW and HRRR suggest isolated convection may develop across the E/SE during peak heating. As was first seen with the 00z Sep 6 models, the latest model suite shows the cold front settling southward into central Illinois on Thursday as a weak area of high pressure builds into Iowa/northern Illinois.
1246 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 Aviation A slow moving cold front will bring periods of heavy rain in thunderstorms today and tonight. Some local flooding is possible before the showers taper off and end on Thursday as the cold front clears LOwer Michigan.
This morning's commute should have been a nice one, at least weather wise, with overnight lows ranging from the low to upper 60s across the TN Valley. The upper-level ridge is still anchored across much of the SE, allowing today to feel like a rinse and repeat of yesterday, besides the cloud cover in the NE. The clouds are slowing down the temp trend a little bit this morning, with current temps in the upper 70s/lower 80s compared to NW AL in the mid 80s, but afternoon temps are still expected to reach the low/mid 90s. Also the upper ridge continues over much of the srn plains and sern US.
1123 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 Update A slow moving cold front will bring periods of heavy rain in thunderstorms today and tonight. Some local flooding is possible before the showers taper off and end on Thursday as the cold front clears LOwer Michigan.
1104 AM CDT WED SEP 7 2016 The morning water vapor imagery indicates broad upper ridging anchored over the Srn Plains and lower MS Valley. with the visible satellite depicting cu towers now developing over the Delta region of SE AR/NE LA where the ridge is weakest. A step outside in the parking lot reveals the cu field still flat as of late morning closer to the ridge center over NW LA. but this should not advance too far inland given the very weak Srly flow beneath the ridge. believe that convection will be more isolated this afternoon along the Ern edge of the ridge center.
1201 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 High pressure will extend over the area from the south through the end of the week with low pressure well to the north.
High pressure centered over northern Minnesota responsible for tranquil early morning conditions, however just south of the CWA we see an area of convection associated with an inverted trof and the right entrance region of a 90-100kt jet steam. Despite the high shear environment, CAPE is probably going to be at or less than 1000j/kg and spread along the length of the profile. The next wave embedded within the broad upper trof over the central CONUS comes late Thursday into the overnight hours.
More cloud cover will mean lower temperatures today and have gone with cooler guidance.
Temperatures today are expected to be a little warmer than yesterday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible today across the area with the best chances across the western CWA nearest to the upper low centered over southeastern Arizona. A weak upper trough will be over the northern conus with weak ridging over the southern conus on Thursday.
A well advertised upper level trough will move through the Northern Plains today with a frontal boundary moving west to east across the region. East of Bismarck in the James river valley the later onset of storms will allow for more surface heating, however CAPE values will still remain on the lower side.
Expect this thunderstorm activity to diminish and shift southeast through the early morning as the low level jet veers to the west southwest and convergence weakens.
High temperatures in the lower 90s at all our mains sites still looks good. The upper ridge will hang on for one more day resulting in a mostly dry Wed. Hot temps will continue with highs in the low 90s today and lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s tonight.
1102 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 Weakness in the upper ridge allows convection across the northern tier today. Will see an increase in the low level moisture advection. Hi res NAM depicting a weak disturbance riding around the periphery of the ridge.
Early morning temperatures were in the mid to upper 70s, with dewpoints in the low 70s. Humidity will lower behind the boundary, except in the SE where dewpoints will be slow to fall out of the lower 70s. Chances for showers and storms, albeit on the low side (20-40%), back in the forecast overnight in elevated WAA.
A long wave upper trough will remain over the area the next few days.
1054 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 Dry weather is expected to continue through the week with dry high pressure dominating.
High pressure centered across southern AL/GA was providing northeast and east low level flow.
and Thursday A cold front was situated across southern WI early this morning, with the deeper convection and heavy rainfall focused just north of the boundary, where PWATs were as high as 2. Temperatures will be a bit cooler than yesterday, with highs ranging from the lower 70s northwest to around 80 southeast on both days.
Think that we'll warm into the lower 90s for most of the area.
A warmer day today, with high temperatures about 5 degrees higher than yesterday.
A weakness rounding the ridge will move into the area though and could provide enough instability for an isolated thunderstorm. Ridge weakens into Thursday, but airmass looks quite a bit drier with PWATs around 1. With drying conditions aloft, anticipate slightly warmer temperatures with 100 degrees possible west both today and Thursday, otherwise highs in the mid and upper 90s.
However, moisture from Newton won't be a factor over the area today or tomorrow as the trough axis to the west sweeps eastward.
The low level boundary from the past few days has become more diffuse, which has allowed the prevailing low level easterlies to increase closer to 8-10kts.
Weather pattern today is similar to yesterday as upper level ridge remains in place over much of southeastern and south central U. Temperatures will once again be on the hot side with highs in the low to mid 90s. Tonight will see more dry weather and warm temperatures with lows in the low to mid 70s. By Thursday, a cold front will start to move south across the mid-Mississippi valley. Thursday will remain on the hot side with highs in the lower 90s.
The strong ridge aloft over the MS/OH valleys will weaken a bit as storms break over the ridge. Muggy air will stick around until a cold front passes through this weekend.
One of the highest PW airmasses of the year will be situated over the area through Thu which will allow any of the showers or storms to produce very high rainfall rates. This will continue to make flooding the main threat for the next few days with southern and se KS looking to have the highest threat. A Strong cold front is still expected to push across the area on Fri afternoon through Fri night with storms likely along this feature. that has been in place the last several days, will finally arrive Sat as a much cooler and drier airmass settles over the region. As lee troughing begins to slow migrate southeast across the state, south-southwest winds will remain breezy ahead of this boundary.
Also the upper ridge continues over much of the srn plains and sern US.
/issued 353 AM CDT WED SEP 7 2016/ (Today and Tonight) An upper ridge over the Southcentral United States will continue to suppress most shower and thunderstorm development over West Central Texas today and tonight. Lee trough will not be quite as strong, however, with south winds of 10 to 17 mph and occasional higher gusts.
908 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 Elongated high pressure ridge will lay East to West across the region Today, with dry airmass in place. As a result, highs will range from the middle 80s near the coast to the lower 90s far inland. High pressure ridge in place this 18Z TAF period, with dry air remaining.
529 AM MDT WED SEP 7 2016 Early morning WV imagery and RAP upper level analysis shows SW flow in place across the plains ahead of large scale upper trough over the western US. At the surface a stalled front extends across our southern CWA with a low pressure centered over southeast Colorado.
/issued 359 AM CDT WED SEP 7 2016/ Cold front very close to Pascagoula at 0330.
1027 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 No changes are needed to the forecast this morning as high pressure remains firmly in control of the pattern across the TN Valley, and regional soundings from 12Z indicate a very stable environment. With full sun conditions expected, temperatures will continue to be well above normal today, with highs in the lower to mid 90s in most locations.
Isolated to scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will persist into mid evening as a cold front makes its way across the region. Should see cold front and convection continue to push southeast during the remainder of the afternoon with a hail and wind risk mainly northwest of our CWA. High pressure will move in from the northwest later tonight behind the front and will bring much cooler air to the area for Saturday. That cool high pressure will move overhead on Saturday night and may see some upper 30s temperatures over the northeastern CWA, with the remainder of the area in the 40s.
755 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016 A cold front crossing the Midlands this afternoon will move off the coast this evening. High pressure will briefly build into the region overnight bringing cooler and drier air. A dry front will move through the region Saturday evening with additional cooler air behind the front.
These latter two features will translate southeast through the mid Mississippi Valley tonight, contributing to further amplification of the broader-scale trough from Ontario into the Ohio Valley. This upper-air pattern evolution will promote the southward acceleration of a strong cold front through the remainder of southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa late this afternoon, and eventually through lower Missouri Valley and Ozarks by 12z/Saturday. The seasonably cool continental-polar air mass filtering into the region tonight behind the cold front will undergo some modification Saturday with highs in the 50s.
Hence, our thinking is the freezing temperatures north will occur near or around 06z, with steady or slowly rising temperatures above freezing late tonight in the north central. The latest water vapor imagery shows a large cyclonic circulation emanating from an upper low over southern Ontario. This continues to draw down much cooler air via a north to northwest flow.
A cold front has progressed across the combined Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles this evening, with no further convective development expected due to a cooler, more stable environment. An upper low located over the Hudson Bay in Canada will keep the Panhandles under northwesterly to westerly flow during the overnight hours. Strong subsidence behind a cold front has cleared out all terminals this evening, with no additional development expected until about 14/09z.
940 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016 At 02Z, a cold front was rapidly approaching St. There may be isolated showers on the Highland Rim and Upper Plateau after 12Z, but not enough of a chance to include in the CSV TAF.
A disturbance aloft will also be nudging a cold front Southeast across the plains that will be moving into the Four State Region late tonight after 14/09Z. Low temperatures will average in the low to mid 60s.
912 PM PDT FRI MAY 13 2016 A dry cold front will move through the central california interior Saturday. Temperatures will be seasonably cooler during the next few days. However in the northern San Joaquin Valley temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 80s this afternoon due to cooler marine air spilling through the Pacheco pass and into the north valley. Breezy conditions will also occur elsewhere in the valley as the cooler air begins to move in. This will bring cooler air into the region.
Upper low over the Great Lakes region to have several narrow trough/vort maxes quickly pin wheel and spin around that feature this evening through the weekend with little impact on the areas sensible weather. Weak high pressure to build into the region bridging in, behind, and over the front Saturday to bring drier airmass into the area dropping dewpoints and RHs areawide so while temps will be around normal its not expected to feel as muggy,especially in central and northern areas. A broad upper trough along the eastern seaboard will provide a northwesterly flow aloft resulting in subsidence and a general drying of the local atmosphere.
This was thanks in large part to the cold front that moved through yesterday. The front isn't expected to arrive until mid morning so have left temps as is for this evening with lows in the low to mid 50's. Stumpf A strong cold front is now over central MO and should arrive into the region shortly after 12Z.
The threat of showers and thunderstorms has moved south and east of the forecast area along the cold frontal boundary. An upper trof over the eastern portion of the country, although becoming less sharp, will bring another fast moving reinforcing front across the fcst area late Saturday (and Saturday night). Low temperatures tonight ranging from the low 50s inland to the lower 60s at the coast. High temperatures on Saturday in the low to mid 80s across the area, with the cooler temps closer to the coast.
Lots of sunshine out there early this afternoon across Central Alabama, as much drier air continues to filter southward following passage of the cold front. Much cooler temperatures can be expected tonight, with upper 40s possible across the northern valley locations and 50s elsewhere. We'll have yet another shot of cooler air coming in on Saturday evening, but before the front gets here we could see some warmer temperatures, especially across the southern half of Central Alabama.
1048 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016 A reinforcing cold front crosses Saturday morning.
Some of this pre-frontal activity still maintains some potential for severe hail, although the better potential may be a bit later this afternoon along the incoming strong cold front. Storms will form along a cold front passing through the area this afternoon and evening. The models have been overestimating the dew points, which are currently in the lower 50s. Soundings show mainly a straight line hodographs with slight curvature in the lowest levels. Several of the high res models have highlighted decent max updraft helicity swaths, and max 10 m wind gusts approaching severe limits moving across most of the area with these storms. Clouds and plenty of cold advection will keep temperatures much cooler and a persistent north breeze will add to the cool feeling conditions.
Temperatures by Saturday morning will fall into the lower 40s.
/Issued 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016/ Dry airmass settling into the area overnight behind the exiting cold front will provide mostly clear skies and below normal low temperatures across north and most of central Georgia. The airmass behind this system is even drier and cooler than what we will see tonight and subsequently Saturday night will see temperatures significantly below normal for early May.
900 PM MST FRI MAY 13 2016 Strong high pressure aloft will bring well above average temperatures Saturday.
/Tonight/ At 3 PM the cold front was located from just South of Waterloo to Des Moines to just West of Lamoni and will continue to push off to the Southeast through 00z. Temperatures in the far Northwest will hit freezing but are not expected to remain that cold for long enough to do damage to plants so a freeze headline is not being considered at this point.
Surface wise, our area lies between a ridge to our west and a trough to our north, hence, winds vary from light and variable on the waters adjacent to the middle and upper keys to northwest and north at less than 10 knots on the balance of our marine district. With the close proximity of a ridge to our east and a trough to our north.
Quite a contrast in temperatures early this afternoon with mid 40s to lower 50s in the cooler air mass behind the cold front over the plains along and east of I-25, with 60s to near 70 degrees over Carbon and Albany counties in the warm sector. We may see isolated showers and thunderstorms develop through early evening and spread eastward onto the plains, though the low levels are so stable that it will be difficult for showers to develop. Cooler air in the wake of the cold front remains entrenched as ridging aloft moves into western Wyoming. Ridge aloft moves to central Wyoming with moist low level upslope southeast winds continuing and producing widespread low clouds, fog and drizzle from Rawlins to Laramie to Cheyenne and Kimball.
Prominent short wave trof evident in current WV imagery from the upper MS Valley into the northern Plains will continue to amplify as it digs southeast driving the attendant cold front quickly across the area tonight. Any severe weather threat will be the remainder of this afternoon into mid evening across northeast and portions of central MO into west central Il as a line of thunderstorms continues to evolve along/ahead of the advancing cold front.
730 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016 A reinforcing cold front crosses Saturday morning.
603 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016 Most of the Midwest under west/northwesterly flow aloft from a broad closed low btwn the Great Lakes and Hudson Bay this afternoon. After the sun sets, the severe threat should diminish quickly, even if the thunderstorms are expected to continue through the evening until the cold front clears the region.
1221 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016 Aviation Low pressure will bring some rain tonight and Saturday then cold weather moves in with rain and even some snow showers across northern Lower Michigan on Saturday afternoon and evening.
Further to the south, temperatures nay dip below freezing temporarily, but am not sure how much frost will develop with winds staying up much of the night.