Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure moves back in behind the exiting front, with dry conditions expected on Wednesday. High temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 80s, with overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s. We remain under an upper flow dominated by western and eastern CONUS troughs with weak ridging in the mid section of the country.
/issued 233 AM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019/ (Today and Tonight) Another round of scorching heat is in store today as a 592 dekameter ridge starts building back into West Texas. The only discrepancy is a slight weakness on the eastern periphery of the ridge which, combined with some higher moisture, may help a few afternoon thunderstorms to develop over the Hill Country.
Anti-cyclonic flow persists across the region again today as the closed low remains off the PacNW coast with a weak trough extending southward off the California coast. Looks like the better chance for showers and thunderstorms will remain to the north and east of the forecast area today as ridging suppresses deeper convection.
745 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019 Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase today, then persist through Wednesday as a cold front approaches and crosses the region. Actual passage of the trough axis/vorticity center/weak sfc cold front of the disturbance is projected for Wednesday and likely, to categorical precip.
333 AM MDT Tue Aug 6 2019 A broad area of high pressure remains over the southwest with just enough moisture underneath to allow some convection today. Models agree with all short range models indicating showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain with a slight nod to the San Juans seeing the most convection. Things change Wednesday though as the high pressure gets shunted eastward due to an approaching low pressure off the Pacific Coast and a stronger piece of the jet stream to our north. As the high moves back to the east, another shot of monsoonal moisture is expected and has been highlighted by models over the last few runs.
1146 AM MDT Tue Aug 6 2019 Wyoming remains on the fringe of the ridge centered on the four corners region.
Cooler and drier air will be working into the region on Wednesday, with highs dropping back into the mid 70s to lower 80s.
A strong cold front will move in from the west during the middle of the week. Cooler and drier air is expected for the end of the week. Convection re-starting under the first, weak short wave trough running N-S thru the central mtns, and also off the lake breeze. A weak boundary lying across the Mason Dixon will move back northward as trough deepens into the Ohio Valley. A deeper negatively trough will move into the region Wednesday. The cold front out ahead of the trough will move through Wednesday bringing an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms.
The storms are associated with a weak cold front that is moving through the region. 08z/3am surface analysis shows a cold front extending from the Upper Peninsula of Michigan southwestward to near Kansas City. High pressure building into the Midwest behind the departing front will provide mostly sunny and dry weather on Wednesday with seasonal temperatures in the middle 80s.
Afterward, a ridge of high pressure will shift ewd across srn WI tnt. This is response to another strong low pressure area developing over the Hudson Bay area and occluding in place into Thu. Its cold front and a weak vorticity maximum will likely trigger showers and tstorms late Wed aft over central WI and affect locations north and Madison and Milwaukee through the early evening.
An upper ridge over west TX and a trough over the eastern US will continue to support a NW flow aloft favoring additional storms from MCSs into the weekend.
306 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019 The mid-level ridge currently located across the southwestern US will weaken slightly over the next few days as the axis shifts eastward.
The monsoon ridge has begun to move eastward as a trough moves towards the west coast. The ridge will move over Texas Wednesday and remain there into the weekend putting southern Arizona under southerly flow aloft. This pattern will help bring in a little more moisture and also allow a few inverted troughs to move around the western periphery of the high over Arizona. Some days will likely be more active than others due to the inverted troughs moving around the high and low level moisture pushes.
High pressure in place today has led to a nice summer day.
945 AM MDT Tue Aug 6 2019 Latest CAMS models continue the trend of no thunderstorm activity over the lower elevations today and restricting it to the highest elevations of the Beartooths and Absarokas late today. It still looks like the southwest mountains will see some thunderstorm development as the drier air will not intrude into the higher terrain.
Afterward, a ridge of high pressure will shift ewd across srn WI tnt. This is response to another strong low pressure area developing over the Hudson Bay area and occluding in place into Thu. Its cold front and a weak vorticity maximum will likely trigger showers and tstorms late Wed aft over central WI and affect locations north and Madison and Milwaukee through the early evening. A ridge of high pressure around 29. Low pressure of 29.
245 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019 Upper ridge remains centered just to our west with quite a bit of monsoonal moisture near and just west of the axis but also spilling a bit into eastern New Mexico to near the Panhandle and South Plains border.
After Wednesday, drier conditions are expected along with a gradual cooling trend into the weekend as the area of high pressure weakens and migrates eastward. With the area of high pressure weakening and migrating slowly eastward toward Texas, the overall pattern will be favorable for a gradual but steady decline in temperatures, and a reliable marine layer each night and morning.
UPDATE In the wake of the cold front, temperatures will only be slightly cooler today, with highs in the low/mid 80s.
Upper flow also still expected to slowly but steadily de-amplify as ridge over the southern/central Rockies flattens and shifts east into the plains.
Latest HRRR and CONSShort model runs are pinging on the highest pops tonight being over the northeast half of our area roughly along and east of I-24, and have kept pops above guidance in the high chance and likely categories - especially across our eastern counties. Tonight's showers and storms are expected to move out of our forecast area by Wednesday morning, with the afternoon likely dry and a bit cooler due to the morning precip and cloud cover.
Across the upper levels around 500mb and above, the ridge centered over NM/W TX continues to slowly moving eastward. Outside areas of showers, temperatures across the region in the lower 90s, with heat index values in the 102-106 range. During this time, the mid to upper level ridge to our west will build further eastward towards our region.
Mid level high pressure currently centered over W TX, is progged to move east across TX through Wed and Wed night. The humid conditions combined with the high temperatures will result in afternoon heat indices ranging from 107 to 114. With sufficient moisture (2 inch PWAT) in place combined with a very weak embedded short wave rounding the east to southeast periphery of the high pressure and low level convergence along the sea breeze, may continue to produce isolated convection through early evening across the western CWA. Rain chances will continue to decrease Wed/Wed night as the high pressure aloft moves across the region bringing drier mid levels along with increasing subsidence.
There could be a few isolated showers/storms across the higher elevations along the TN/NC line with the northwesterly flow providing some orographic lift. There is a weak upper level trough near western Kentucky that will move through the Tennessee Valley later today but with the lack of moisture, do not anticipate any precipitation. Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 72 90 71 / 10 30 40 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 68 87 69 / 10 40 30 20 Oak Ridge, TN 90 69 86 70 / 10 30 40 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 64 84 65 / 10 30 40 20.
1026 AM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019 Area temperatures running about 3 degrees warmer than this time yesterday, likely due to less cloud cover. Isolated thunderstorms are expected again in the higher terrain of southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas given the uncapped, humid environment. An approaching cold front will offer better chances for storms across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as early as tomorrow.
A trough remains across the Southeast today, with the axis of synoptic forcing for ascent shifting east of the Tri-State region. Dry air aloft associated with the trough will continue to overspread the region through the day. Storms should come to an end around sunset, with lows dipping into the lower 70s across inland locations.
The storms are associated with a weak cold front that is moving through the region. High pressure will be mostly in control through the week, but will only a couple of week upper systems to trigger a slight chance of precipitation.
241 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019 Dewpoints have mixed out a bit over the past few hours but still running in the low/mid 70s (and did note a recent spike to 80F at the Antlers mesonet!). Will likely see convection develop near the retreating warm front across NE tonight, with a complex surging southeast by early Wednesday.
247 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019 18Z surface data has a cold front from northwest Ohio back into central Missouri and then into western Nebraska. Diurnal convection that has developed in the highway 20 corridor near Dubuque will slowly move southeast and persist through late afternoon before dissipating. The upper pattern will be weak zonal to northwest flow during the period, with models highly variable on where the frontal boundaries and location of passing short wave trofs will be.
323 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019 The next seven days' weather will be dominated by the upper-level ridge over the southwestern United States (that will shift east this weekend). As small waves drift around the ridge's north side, there will be occasional elevated chances for showers/thunderstorms. Because of the proximity of the upper ridge, temperatures (where significant rain doesn't occur) will be quite hot, even for this time of year.
146 PM MDT Tue Aug 6 2019 Cold front has mostly moved through Northeast Montana as of 145 PM. Cooler temperatures still remain north of the international border, so we are seeing temperatures in the 80s and 90s.
301 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019 Synopsis/Discussion/Marine - Seasonably warm and rather humid through Wednesday - Isolated showers possible late this afternoon and evening - Patchy fog early Wednesday morning - Scattered showers and storms Wednesday night - Cooler and less humid late this week Tranquil and seasonably warm and rather humid weather is forecast through Wednesday afternoon. The cold front is through our fcst area and the threat for widespread rain and convection has shifted southeast of our area along and out ahead of that front. A cold front approaching from the northwest will bring scattered showers and storms Wednesday night.
Looks a bit drier on Wednesday as upper level ridging expands and PW values lower. Slightly less activity is expected Wed with the upper ridge axis over the Four Corners starting to build east.
The next several days will continue to be dominated by the large upper level ridge across the southwest United States and troughing over the eastern United States.
An approaching cold front and mid level short wave trough will bring a chance for showers and storms to the area on Wednesday.
246 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019 Broad troughing continues aloft across the eastern portion of the U. High pressure will keep a southwest to west wind flow in place across the waters through the next several days.
Temperatures reached the low 90s while most locations remained dry. For Wednesday night, look for more thunderstorm chances with overnight lows in the low 70s.
A Heat Advisory has been issued, although the Heat Index will not be much more than the actual temperature (if at all in some spots) due to the low relative humidity in areas where it does reach 105+.
350 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019 Cold front located from near Winnipeg to Bottineau, then to Minot then into SW North Dakota. More clouds Wed will keep temps significantly cooler than the heat of today.
/Issued 1026 AM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019/ Area temperatures running about 3 degrees warmer than this time yesterday, likely due to less cloud cover. Isolated thunderstorms are expected again in the higher terrain of southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas given the uncapped, humid environment. An approaching cold front will offer better chances for storms across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as early as tomorrow.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): The 500 mb ridging over the Desert SW will gradually build east over the RGV and the TX coastline throughout the short term period. As the ridging increases, expect the overall August heat to continue and will go near or slightly above the model blends for high temps for Wed.
247 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019 Upper ridge remains centered just to our west with quite a bit of monsoonal moisture near and just west of the axis but also spilling a bit into eastern New Mexico to near the Panhandle and South Plains border.
239 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019 Upper ridge remains centered just to our west with quite a bit of monsoonal moisture near and just west of the axis but also spilling a bit into eastern New Mexico to near the Panhandle and South Plains border.
121 PM MDT Tue Aug 6 2019 Wyoming remains on the fringe of the ridge centered on the four corners region. The forecast area will be under ridging through most of the work week, which will help keep the temperatures on the warm side.
An upper ridge will keep the weather warm and dry through Wednesday. The high will weaken and move east as a low pressure system over the Eastern Pacific gradually moves onshore late this week.
Current surface weather analysis depicts a west-east pressure trough across southern North Dakota, with decent return flow across south central North Dakota where dew points are hovering around 60 degrees and temperatures are in the lower 90s. In addition, an upper level impulse located across southeast Montana is beginning to catch up with the surface pressure trough. A cold front will push southward from southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba through North Dakota tonight, with high pressure building in behind it. This will lead to much cooler temperatures tomorrow, with highs in the 70s.
Lows tonight will drop into the 60s, with highs tomorrow in the low to mid 80s.
Pattern synopsis/forecast: Upper low near Hudson Bay with baggy upper level troughiness into the Great Lakes. At the surface, cold front moving across the upper midwest (our weather issue for tomorrow), with elongated ridge axis over the western lakes.
Areas from around the James Valley west will see the higher instability and the better chance for large hail. Time will tell but at this time the highest threat for severe weather should be from about 9 pm to 2 am CDT. Skies will be partly cloudy as high pressure builds south and winds turn to the north and northeast. Highs will be seasonally warm in the lower to mid 80s with dew points in the 60s, so a touch humid. There will be a small chance for thunderstorms near the Missouri River Wednesday night which is near the low and mid level thermal gradient and location of a weak upper level wave. Temperatures will cool overnight with high pressure building.
Northern portions of the CWA should be favored for additional development over the next few hours, mainly along the edge of the ridge. Wednesday appears to be a more active day as the H5 ridge breaks down with 20-30 meter height falls vs.
450 PM MDT Tue Aug 6 2019 Strong upper ridging is persisting across the southwestern CONUS, with the main axis across the Great Basin. Temps will be slightly cooler near seasonal averages. Daily chances for storms will continue this weekend as the ridge axis transitions eastward. Cooler and drier weather may be on tap for early in the next work week, with dewpoints finally dropping below the 60s across western SD. A cold front will continue to cross the area this evening, bringing a shift to northwesterly winds and a chance for a few TSRA over central SD.
Cold front located from near Winnipeg to Bottineau, then to Minot then into SW North Dakota. More clouds Wed will keep temps significantly cooler than the heat of today.
Expect just widely scattered convection beginning late morning Wednesday, then lingering through the day, at all sites as ridging aloft begins building over the region. Across the upper levels around 500mb and above, the ridge centered over NM/W TX continues to slowly moving eastward. Outside areas of showers, temperatures across the region in the lower 90s, with heat index values in the 102-106 range. During this time, the mid to upper level ridge to our west will build further eastward towards our region.
/issued 306 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): The 500 mb ridging over the Desert SW will gradually build east over the RGV and the TX coastline throughout the short term period. As the ridging increases, expect the overall August heat to continue and will go near or slightly above the model blends for high temps for Wed.
/Issued 241 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019/ Dewpoints have mixed out a bit over the past few hours but still running in the low/mid 70s (and did note a recent spike to 80F at the Antlers mesonet!). Will likely see convection develop near the retreating warm front across NE tonight, with a complex surging southeast by early Wednesday.
TC Previous Discussion 146 pm MDT: Cold front has mostly moved through Northeast Montana as of 1 PM. Cooler temperatures still remain north of the international border, so we are seeing temperatures in the 80s and 90s.
Any cell which develops will drift south, as light north flow continues overhead around a mid level ridge centered to our west. /Issued 306 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019/ The mid-level ridge currently located across the southwestern US will weaken slightly over the next few days as the axis shifts eastward.
A strong dome of high pressure remains over the Four Corners region today with some high clouds riding around the high into central California. The clouds are not quite as thick as yesterday, which is allowing temperatures to be running 2-5 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time. The large scale pattern begins to change Wednesday as the Four Corners high begins to weaken and shift east as an upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast begins to deepen. The moisture that is wrapping around the high pressure area will continue to stream northward into central California and there is a slight possibility of a shower along the Sierra Crest.
The storms are associated with a weak cold front that is moving through the region. Advancing high pressure behind the departing cold front will start to usher in lower dewpoint air tomorrow. Lows tonight appear on track to bottom out in the low to mid 60s. High pressure will be mostly in control through the week, but will only a couple of week upper systems to trigger a slight chance of precipitation.
Drier and hotter afternoon but no convection expected in the lower elevations. Tonight should be a bit cooler as a weakening front moves into northeast Montana bringing winds to north and then northeasterly directions.
Day time heating has snipped the ridge around the longitude of the Peninsula, placing a col across the Keys and surrounding waters. Short Term Update - The more usual weak anti-cyclonic flow around the ridge axis will redevelop as the col dissipates. A weak ridge axis extends across Keys waters this evening. We did include a short window of VCTS at both terminals Wednesday afternoon, based on the expected forecast soundings, which include adequate moisture and VRB winds through the low-levels.
Otherwise, mainly clear skies overnight, with clouds and shower chances slowly increasing Wednesday as cold front approaches. Pattern synopsis/forecast: Upper low near Hudson Bay with baggy upper level troughiness into the Great Lakes. At the surface, cold front moving across the upper midwest (our weather issue for tomorrow), with elongated ridge axis over the western lakes.
High PoP forecast once again as deep moisture remains entrenched btwn a broad troffing pattern over the SE CONUS and the Bermuda Ridge axis over S FL/FL Straits. Upstream, a modest H85-H50 vort lobe over the ern GOMEX will work its way acrs central FL on Wed, while a mid/upr lvl trof over the Deep South nudges its way SE to provide respectable mid/upr lvl support.
836 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019 Aviation - Seasonably warm and rather humid through Wednesday - Isolated showers possible late this afternoon and evening - Patchy fog early Wednesday morning - Scattered showers and storms Wednesday night - Cooler and less humid late this week Tranquil and seasonably warm and rather humid weather is forecast through Wednesday afternoon. The cold front is through our fcst area and the threat for widespread rain and convection has shifted southeast of our area along and out ahead of that front. A cold front approaching from the northwest will bring scattered showers and storms Wednesday night.
302 PM MDT Tue Aug 6 2019 Strong upper ridging is persisting across the southwestern CONUS, with the main axis across the Great Basin. Temps will be slightly cooler near seasonal averages. Daily chances for storms will continue this weekend as the ridge axis transitions eastward. Cooler and drier weather may be on tap for early in the next work week, with dewpoints finally dropping below the 60s across western SD. A cold front will continue to cross the area this afternoon, bringing a shift to northwesterly winds and a chance for a few TSRA over central SD.
18Z surface data has a cold front from northwest Ohio back into central Missouri and then into western Nebraska. Diurnal convection that has developed in the highway 20 corridor near Dubuque will slowly move southeast and persist through late afternoon before dissipating. The upper pattern will be weak zonal to northwest flow during the period, with models highly variable on where the frontal boundaries and location of passing short wave trofs will be.
/issued 247 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019/ Upper ridge remains centered just to our west with quite a bit of monsoonal moisture near and just west of the axis but also spilling a bit into eastern New Mexico to near the Panhandle and South Plains border.
Otherwise, southwest flow aloft will continue to bring some clouds into the area through Wednesday, along with a slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the higher elevations. Isolated thunderstorms mainly over the higher terrain this evening and Wednesday afternoon.
/issued 323 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019/ The next seven days' weather will be dominated by the upper-level ridge over the southwestern United States (that will shift east this weekend). As small waves drift around the ridge's north side, there will be occasional elevated chances for showers/thunderstorms. Because of the proximity of the upper ridge, temperatures (where significant rain doesn't occur) will be quite hot, even for this time of year.
643 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019 Immediate attention remains focused on the strong storms that have developed along the cold front currently draped across the area. NW flow aloft will continue through the period, ushering high pressure in behind the front. The high will limit instability across the mid-Mississippi Valley, resulting in fairly quiet through tomorrow afternoon.
434 PM MDT Tue Aug 6 2019 Wyoming remains on the fringe of the ridge centered on the four corners region. The forecast area will be under ridging through most of the work week, which will help keep the temperatures on the warm side.
In the upper levels a trough remains over the Southeast. POPs will be 30 to 50 percent with the higher chances along the sea breeze in and near the Florida Counties. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 90s.