Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS ONCE AGAIN FIRED UNDERNEATH UPPER RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE MID STATE.
HIGH PRESSURE WITH MORE HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH DEW POINTS BY 12Z THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER TO THE MIDDLE 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60 SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 60S.
OTHERWISE A MUCH QUIETER DAY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION. WIDESPREAD DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN U. WITH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE REMAINING WEST OF WYOMING.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH DEW POINTS ALSO IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. SOUTHERLY WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
CLOSER TO HOME WE FIND A LARGE DOME OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM EAST OF THE BAHAMAS ISLAND WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE UPPER RIDGE SINKS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH ON THURSDAY SETTING UP THE POTENTIAL FOR QUITE A HOT DAY. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IT WILL STILL BE DRY IN THE MID-LEVELS WITH CONTINUED SUPPRESSION/SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED FOR THE MOST PART WITH SUNSET ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF UPPER RIDGE HAS LIMITED ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INLAND, IT IS CURRENTLY MUCH DRIER AND WARMER AT KRBG THAN YESTERDAY, AND CROSS OVER TEMPERATURES ARE LOW, THUS STRATUS IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN (NOR FORM LOCALLY), AND IT WAS REMOVED FROM THE KRBG TAF.
DEEP LAYER RIDGE MOVES LITTLE WITH HOT TEMPERATURES PERSISTING.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS DRY SO ONLY EXPECT A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS AND NO PRECIP THURSDAY.
804 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION PROVIDING HOT TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN THE HIGHER 0-3KM CAPE MIGHT HAVE A FEW FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY BUT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW GIVEN THE SHEAR PARAMETERS. COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SOME DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE STATE. WHILE SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE NORTH WILL LIMIT CHANCES OF RAIN/STORMS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH HELPING THIS ACTIVITY WAS COMING ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.
920 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 FORECAST STILL ON TRACK AS THE COLD FRONT IS NOW DRAPED OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ND. STRONG MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THEN KEPT THE HIGH CHANCES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST TEXAS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES TONIGHT ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. OTHER THAN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN ZONES AND THE THREAT FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES ENDING.
635 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ND. STRONG MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THEN KEPT THE HIGH CHANCES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
/ISSUED 327 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015/ TODAY WAS ANOTHER DAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES. BUT THE UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TOMORROW AND THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHER. UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR INDICATES A RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND ANOTHER ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. ANY ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET WITH LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWER 70S. THE RIDGE HOLDS STRONG TOMORROW BUT INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AS THE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
/ISSUED 223 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2015/ Isolated showers have developed over the area this afternoon on the backside of Tropical Cyclone Bill which is now about to cross the Red River into OK. As Bill lifts northeast, an upper ridge will try to build east across the Southern Plains.
(Thursday Night through Wednesday) As upper high pressure spreads eastward across the Desert Southwest through the end of the week in the wake of the departing tropical depression, drier air will push into the forecast area.
THIS AREA HAS HAD HEAVY RINFALL EARLIER AND THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS THIS AREA WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING DUE TO THE HIGH WATER LEVELS OF THE BACKWATER OFF THE RED RIVER WHICH IS AT A HIGH STAGE.
MOST OF THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT LIFTING THE REMNANT MOISTURE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NE ACROSS NE OK ON THU WHILE SHIFTING ENE INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING GENERALLY STAYING IN CONTROL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GIVEN HIGH FREEZING LEVELS AND WARM TEMPS SEVERE HAIL WOULD ONLY BE A SECONDARY POTENTIAL THREAT WITH STRONGER STORMS. SOUTHEAST RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETREAT SLIGHTLY BACK OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE TO THE REMNANTS OF TS BILL MOVING UP INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.
DYING OFF BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD. ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS ONCE AGAIN FIRED UNDERNEATH UPPER RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE MID STATE.
/ISSUED 305 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015/ SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S. WITH THE APPROACH OF BILL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
OUR CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE E SIDE OF A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW. WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE ERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF A FEW STORMS GOING. HIGH TEMPS LIKELY TO BE A BIT WARMER TOMORROW. WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE LOWER 90S AT KPUB. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE HOT WEATHER WILL STICK WITH US FOR A WHILE AFTER THAT AS THE UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE CENTRAL MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS NOW SHIFTS TO CONTINUED SNOW MELT FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND RISES ON THE CREEKS/RIVERS. AN UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE AREA ON FRI WITH MAINLY DRY WX EXPECTED.
719 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL LIMIT THE LOWS IN SOME AREAS AS WELL AS BRING IN A CHANCE OF FOG. A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE BEEN MOISTENED IN AREAS RECEIVING RAIN.
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC.
A TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL.
TODAY'S EXTREME HEAT AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY, BOTH AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND ALOFT HAD THE EXPECTED OUTCOME WITH MANY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
802 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLIER TODAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO COLORADO FM THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENING.
AS WARMER AIR OFF THE SURFACE ENCROACHES. FRIES A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF BILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW AND MID 90S. DEEP MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S BEACH AREAS.
At the surface, low pressure stretched from southwest Kansas to western Iowa, with a weak cold front stretching across north central Kansas. Short-range models show these pop-up showers and storms continuing near this boundary into this evening, however they should diminish in coverage and lift northward into southern Nebraska through the evening due to Tropical Depression Bill lifting northward toward the area and thus lifting the weak cold front just north of the Kansas/Nebraska border. Models show the cold front essentially stalling out across far southern Nebraska on Thursday, so could continue to see some scattered showers and storms developing along the state border through the day. With more of an easterly flow in place at the surface due to the tropical system, expect temperatures to be slightly cooler than today with highs generally in the low 80s.
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOMORROW NIGHT WILL YIELD SOME SHOWERS.
LATEST OBS INDICATE THE FRONT IS BEGINNING TO CREEP BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT TO RESIDE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH. LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
1228 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
A RIDGE CENTER OVER OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS THAT COULD GET INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
/ISSUED 721 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE. /ISSUED 348 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN NORTHEAST TEXAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY IN THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN REGIONS OF THE PENINSULA AND NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE COULD REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.
AS AFTERNOON HIGHS SOAR INTO THE LOW/MID 90S. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WAS CONTROLLING OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE REMNANTS OF TC BILL SHOULD MOVE AROUND THE WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SE.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT TOWARD NW OREGON WILL BRING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN OREGON. INLAND, IT IS CURRENTLY MUCH DRIER AND WARMER AT KRBG THAN YESTERDAY, AND CROSS OVER TEMPERATURES ARE LOW, THUS STRATUS IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN (NOR FORM LOCALLY), AND IT WAS REMOVED FROM THE KRBG TAF. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL PRODUCE MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS THROUGH THE EVENING. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIE DOWN LATER TONIGHT AND REMAIN LOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS.
933 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF QUEBEC AND CROSS MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST LATER IN THE NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN BORDER LATE IN THE PERIOD AND WILL INTRODUCE CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN ALLAGASH BY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRI MRNG.
WEAK RIDGING AND RISING HEIGHTS HAVE BUILT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS RESULTED IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY.
INCLUDING A TROUGH FROM IA INTO KS AND ANOTHER IN UT. WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM NEAR KHNR TO KALO TO KJYR ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF CU. COLD FRONT HAS BEEN PROGRESSIVE SO FAR TODAY. WITH SOME REGENERATION IN CENTRAL NEB TO SOUTHERN IA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE KS-NEB/IA-MO BORDERS.
949 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 A FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES TOMORROW NIGHT DRAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT. LIFTING THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT. THINK WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES DRAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT.
RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT FROM THE EAST WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY.
1032 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION PROVIDING HOT TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
814 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 A FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES TOMORROW NIGHT DRAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT. ANOTHER QUARTER TO HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT. LIFTING THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT. THINK WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES DRAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM EAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND. DRYING AND RIDGING FROM THE EAST SHOULD TAPER CHANCES FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
910 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015 A WARM FRONT WITH AN ACCOMPANYING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL LIMIT THE LOWS IN SOME AREAS AS WELL AS BRING IN A CHANCE OF FOG.
914 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ONCE THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST LATE IN THE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE.
Very little change in the weather is expected across interior NorCal the next several days as we'll remain locked in southwesterly flow aloft between a deepening trough over the eastern Pacific and a strengthening ridge to our east over the Rockies and Great Plains.
821 AM PDT MON AUG 24 2015 BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER TODAY. MOISTURE FLOWING AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
654 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED SOUTHEAST OF A KTRL TO KMKN LINE AT 1130Z. AS WELL AS THE INHIBITING RIDGING ALOFT. STILL THINK THE RIDGE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME WITH ONLY WEAK NEAR-BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE AND WEAK FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE SITUATED ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONGLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALOFT.
BETWEEN THE CLOUDS AND THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MIGRATE THROUGH AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AND LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. PRECIP COVERAGE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH CHANCE POPS CONFINED MAINLY TO JUST DEEP EAST TEXAS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE AND UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION. A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S. CLIMBING TO THE LOWER 70S BY THE WEEKEND.
621 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 152 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/ AT 06Z, A COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM JUST EAST OF LEXINGTON TO JUST S OF NASHVILLE AND MEMPHIS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROF WAS FOUND FROM SRN MIDDLE TN THRU NWRN AL INTO CENTRAL MS. AREAS OF CLOUDS WERE ON THE INCREASE ALONG AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AND THE COLD FRONT IN KY AND TN. WE HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG THRU 15Z TO GO ALONG WITH THE SCHC OF TSRA ALONG THE COLD FRONT. FINE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THIS WEEK AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.
440 AM PDT MON AUG 24 2015 A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BRING A WARMING TREND AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. HGTS BULGE UP TO 591 DM AS A FOUR CORNERS UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS AND EXPANDS. THE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY PERHAPS MOVING A LITTLE TO THE SE. A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BE OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST AND WILL SET UP DRY SW FLOW FOR THE AREA WED AND THU.
HUSTON GENERALLY PLEASANT AND WARMER WEATHER TODAY AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WEST. WV/IR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE RIDGE.
FORECAST AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST ALLOWING INSTABILITY AXIS TO ALSO SHIFT EAST AND CENTERED OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
1142 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION.
The high pressure and cooler air mass will result in a cool night tonight as lows drop into the middle to lower 50s under clear skies and light winds. The upper level trough will setup and remain over the eastern U. through midweek as upper level ridge will be over the western U.
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW 850-950MB TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING.
733 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A RELATIVELY DEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE M70S OVR THE NW MTNS TO THE M/U80S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. SCT SHRA/TSRA ALONG COLD FRONT WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING EAST OF KIPT AND KMDT. TO NR 80F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MID-LATE WEEK WX WILL BE DOMINATED BY LINGERING UPPER TROUGH OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
650 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015 UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCH CLOSER TONIGHT AND WINDS SHOULD EASE QUICKLY BY SUNSET. THE LONGER TERM TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COOLER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL PERIOD THROUGH ABOUT MIDWEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN HAS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH EXITING SLOWLY TO THE EAST EARLY WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WEST.
516 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2015 A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE WILL ALSO LESSEN THE IMPACT FROM THE SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES SO WE SHOULD ALSO SEE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO THE VISIBILITY TODAY. AS THE RIDGE PUSHES SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WITH FORECASTED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND ONE INCH PUSHING INTO THE FOUR- CORNERS REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
828 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE THIS MORNING. AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SAILS SLOWLY ACROSS. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. DEEP UPPER TROF SETTLES INTO E NORTH AMERICA ON TUE. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SENDING PERTURBATIONS THRU THE OH VALLEY TUE AND WED. WILL STAY CLOSE WITH COOLER NUMBERS FROM PREV FCST. MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW COULD IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.
BUT SHOULD STILL SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH RIDGE AXIS JUST WEST OF COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY AS LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE INCREASE AND 700MB TEMPS RISE CLOSE TO 15+C ALONG WITH BETTER MIXING UP TO 500MB. BY TUESDAY SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO STREAM NORTH OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF COLORADO. AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST.
1156 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE WEEKEND. A PASSING COLD FRONT IS HERALDING LOWER DEWPOINTS AND DIMINISHED CLOUDINESS TODAY.
AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND SLOWLY EXITING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. COOLER THAN NORMAL READINGS WILL TAKE PLACE ONCE AGAIN. WITH HIGHS EXPECTED GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. ON TUESDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST.
MUCH COOLER AND DRY WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. A STRONG (FOR AUGUST) COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA AT THIS TIME AND SHOULD EXIT OUR SE AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH THE CENTER OF THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. LOOK FOR LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN MOST SPOTS. WE'LL STAY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MONDAY.
1049 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015 QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS MIDDLE TN THIS MORNING FOLLOWING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER IN THE MORNING. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT CSV THROUGH MID-MORNING, WILL GAVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z, FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
WEAK RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT AND STALL ACROSS THE STATE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A NORTHEASTERN-BASED COLD FRONT ON THE HEELS OF THIS ACTION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MAY EITHER ENHANCE THIS ACTIVITY OR SCOUR IT OUT. THE HEAT IN COMBINATION WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH COULD HELP TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
617 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015 06Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A STORM SYSTEM NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. QUIET AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TODAY AND TONIGHT AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
1041 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2015 A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE WILL ALSO LESSEN THE IMPACT FROM THE SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES SO WE SHOULD ALSO SEE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO THE VISIBILITY TODAY. AS THE RIDGE PUSHES SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WITH FORECASTED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND ONE INCH PUSHING INTO THE FOUR- CORNERS REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.