Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
649 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2020 Lingering showers and thunderstorms will diminish this evening, as a cold front pushes south across our area. The cold front is making some headway into the northwest corner of the CWA now, with dew points dropping from the low 70s to the mid 60s between Galesburg and Moline. With the drier air arriving, lows in the lower 60s are expected over much of central Illinois. While temperatures reach the mid 80s on Tuesday, the lower dew points will make it feel much more comfortable. Longer range models continue to build the upper ridge just west of the Rockies late this week, keeping more of a northwest flow feeding the Midwest states.
905 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2020 The area will remain between high pressure to the east and low pressure inland through the week. Lows will range from the mid 70s inland to the lower 80s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston where nocturnal surging over the Atlantic will keep the atmosphere well mixed. Weak upper level disturbances will be moving across the area during this time period as strong upper level ridging remains in place across much of the central and western Atlantic and an upper level low remains anchored north of the Great Lakes.
Mid/upper level low aloft spinning over Louisiana will keep the chance of SHRA this evening and overnight at all terminals, with the best chances for TSRA between 15-21z for BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA, and 18-24z for AEX Tuesday, thus included this in PROB30 groups.
959 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2020 A prominent rotation noted over SE TX on satellite imagery and regional radar mosaic, associated with an upper low over the region. Mid/upper level low aloft spinning over Louisiana will keep the chance of SHRA this evening and overnight at all terminals, with the best chances for TSRA between 15-21z for BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA, and 18-24z for AEX Tuesday, thus included this in PROB30 groups.
744 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2020 Showers and thunderstorms will continue into tonight and early tomorrow with a passing cold front. Slightly cooler temperature and periodic rain chance can be expected for the rest of the week. As the cold front propagates to the SE, some diurnal enhancement of thunderstorms along the front is expected Tuesday afternoon in West Virginia and Maryland counties. Temperature on Tuesday will be much more comfortable after cold frontal passage.
621 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2020 The area will remain between high pressure to the east and low pressure inland through the week. Lows will range from the mid 70s inland to the lower 80s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston where nocturnal surging over the Atlantic will keep the atmosphere well mixed. Weak upper level disturbances will be moving across the area during this time period as strong upper level ridging remains in place across much of the central and western Atlantic and an upper level low remains anchored north of the Great Lakes.
A cold front will pass off to the south by the mid morning hours today. In its wake, high pressure will move into the area through Wednesday. Appears cold front is about half way through the forecast area at this time, with radar indicating widely scattered showers in the vicinity of the front.
High pressure will build across Arizona during the week, resulting in a continuation of the above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation chances. The high will be well positioned for the second half of the week to block moisture and storm chances for much of area. The last several days models continue to trend even warmer.
Monsoon moisture associated with a trough of low pressure will continue to lift northward into Idaho overnight and Tuesday morning while showers and thunderstorms decrease across the region. A hot and drier air mass will overspread Nevada mid to late week as a ridge of high pressure rebuilds over the region. Warmer temperatures and very dry conditions settle into the state for the rest of the week beginning Wednesday as a high pressure builds over the region.
Temperatures overnight should drop down into the low 70s across most of the area, with a few lucky rural spots dropping into the upper 60s. A weak area of low pressure along the LA/MS coast will slowly begin to lift to the northeast, bringing with it a deeper, tropical air mass into the Mid South and Tennessee Valley regions. Expect a redevelopment of scattered showers and thunderstorms by late Tuesday morning which will become more numerous in nature by the afternoon as moisture and lift from the aforementioned low pressure system increases.
Clouds will slowly erode away through late Tuesday morning before a new crop of showers and thunderstorms initiates over the higher terrain. Storms will roll eastward off of the higher terrain and into the lower elevation areas into Tuesday evening with activity winding down toward midnight.
Expecting scattered showers and thunderstorms to persist through the afternoon as a building upper ridge across the western U.
A weak upper level low has developed along the Texas coast and will keep things unsettled today and Wednesday. Greater coverage of convection will likely be today before the upper low starts to weaken and the subtropical ridge starts to build back over Texas.
302 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected through part of today with a crossing cold front. Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are then expected through the week under a trough of low pressure. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected this morning with a crossing cold front. Otherwise, a gradual clearing trend is expected behind the front under dry advection and building high pressure.
500mb heights look to only fall slightly so temperatures will only be a degree or two cooler than yesterday, but still on the hot and humid side. Temperatures will correspondingly by a few degrees cooler tomorrow than seen today.
The upper level trough lifting northeast through Utah is well-defined in water vapor imagery, extending from northwest Utah down to the four corners region at mid-evening. Convective precip persists along this trough axis, with a trailing cluster of showers/storms across west-central Utah likely associated with a weak vorticity maxima tied to the trough. Loss of daytime instability will lead to mostly light precip along the trough axis through the balance of the night. Fairly strong subsidence trailing the trough will result in clearing skies and generally dry conditions across the southern half of the state by late tonight. An upper level trough will move northeast across central and northern Utah tonight. In the wake of this feature, a ridge will build in over the region through the remainder of the week.
302 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low in northern Ontario with an associated trough over the upper Great Lakes this morning. There is also a ridge across the Rockies and sern U. The trough moves into the lower Great Lakes this forecast period.
1017 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2020 Upper ridging continues across much of the western CONUS, with quiet and weak northwest flow across the CWA. A broad upper low is sitting across the central to southern Pac coast. The upper low will drift northeastward overnight and through Tuesday, reaching the region by the afternoon. Rain will linger across the area Wednesday morning, but then heavier rainfall is expected in the afternoon and evening, as the main upper low crosses the area.
DGS Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 72 87 73 86 / 60 50 70 70 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 72 89 72 85 / 60 60 70 60 80 Oak Ridge, TN 88 71 89 71 85 / 60 60 70 60 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 68 87 69 84 / 60 50 70 50 80.
A cold front and trough of low pressure will approach the area by midweek and linger over the region into the weekend. Breezy conditions will continue as the area remains between high pressure offshore and troughing over the piedmont, so don't expect much in the way of additional cooling through sunrise. Then, as a large upper trough and surface front move into the region, and a period of unsettled weather is expected from mid week into the weekend.
With the abundant moisture, weak mid level troughing and afternoon heating, scattered to numerous showers and storms will be the rule once again this afternoon. The showers will continue tonight, especially south of I-20 with lows in the low 70s.
1059 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2020 Diurnal CU field is increasing north of I-94 this afternoon as an upper low continues to spin north of Minnesota. Elsewhere, it's sunny and in the lower 80s. An area of troughing over eastern Canada and the Great Lakes will remain in place as ridging shifts back to the desert southwest.
355 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020 Highs today will reach the lower to middle 80s with plenty of sunshine, though it will be notably less humid than yesterday.
329 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020 Isolated showers will persist today as a cold front makes its way southeast. High pressure accompanied by dry weather is forecast to take over tonight through Wednesday.
246 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020 An U/L ridge will hold over the region through the week and over the weekend.
235 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2020 Satellite imagery and 500mb RAP analysis showed a closed low over eastern Canada, with a large trough stretching from the northern Plains to New England. Behind this system, upper ridging built across the western half of the country, placing the region under northwest flow. However, the better potential for storms will be south of the region where a cold front lingers as well as to the west.
405 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020 Under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and a steady east wind of 10 to 15 mph, temperatures are holding in the lower to mid 80s along the Florida Keys.
(03Z Today through 06Z Wed) As the cold front surges farther into Southern Missouri, this leaves our region in a cooler and quieter regime, setting us up for the chance for fog. Model soundings are currently projecting fog to start slowly developing within the next hour or so as the inversion grows, and quickly dissipating near the 8-9AM hour as the lower levels start to mix out. The rest of the forecast area is expected to remain dry with temps dropping into the upper 60s/lower 70s for the low.
150 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020 The area will remain between high pressure to the east and low pressure inland through the week. Weak upper level disturbances will be moving across the area during this time period as strong upper level ridging remains in place across much of the central and western Atlantic and an upper level low remains anchored north of the Great Lakes.
High pressure will then build over the desert southwest by Wednesday and will bring much warmer temperatures and a downturn in monsoon activity through the end of the week. Scattered thunderstorms are currently developing along the higher terrain of northern Arizona as of this writing.
246 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2020 High pressure will bring dry weather to central and southeast Illinois today, along with warm temperatures and less humid conditions.
303 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2020 High pressure remained centered over ND early this morning supporting clear skies and light winds. 500mb heights show a closed low over Ontario and ridge axis extending from Wyoming through Saskatchewan.
A few storms may be severe especially early in the evening when instability is expected to be the highest. A better chance of severe weather is then expected on Wednesday evening as developing low pressure system moves off of the Rockies. This low will then slide southeast across central Nebraska on Wednesday night.
/issued 231 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2020/ Scattered showers and thunderstorms already going up along a cold front that extends from Clovis to Tulia to Wheeler, particularly on the eastern end of that line in an area that got quite a bit warmer than forecast. The combination of temperatures of 95-100 and dew point temperatures in the low to mid 60s is resulting in a band of surface-based CAPE of around 1500 J/kg and weak inhibition that these storms are developing in. The cold front is expected to undergo frontolysis with a return to a general southerly low level flow across the area. Strengthening of the mid- and upper-level ridge across the Desert Southwest will veer winds aloft, resulting in west-to-northwesterly flow above the boundary-layer while southerly flow persists beneath. As the mid- and upper-level anticyclone strengthens over the southwestern U.
Meanwhile, a stalled frontal boundary in the Texas Panhandle is projected to begin lifting slowly back to the north in response to lee side troughing deepening in eastern Colorado, and moving into southwest Kansas sometime later this afternoon. With sufficient instability in a band of steepening low/mid level lapse rates, the majority of CAMs show likely mid/late afternoon thunderstorm development in vicinity of the trough axis in eastern Colorado with storms then drifting eastward toward the Kansas border through this evening. As for temperatures, the aforementioned frontal boundary lifting northward into southwest Kansas by this afternoon will allow slightly warmer air back into the area. Should see highs up into the lower/mid 80s(F) as a result.
surface observations show temperatures in the lower to mid 70s across the region as of 07z. An upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest will slowly push towards the west. Overnight lows will range from the lower to mid 70s.
427 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020 In the wake of a cold front. High pressure over the Ohio Valley will support fair dry weather through tonight. An upper level low near the Ontario/Quebec border to start this period will slowly track east toward the Canadian Maritimes.
256 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2020 Early this morning, high pressure was located over the region. Dewpoints in the low 60s with lows in the mid to low 60s was a respite from the heat and humidity of this past weekend. This wave is expected to move through the lower Great Lakes through the short term. Discussion: A reinforcing shot of cooler air is expected to push south into the area today.
This approaching mid-level trough will strengthen/amplify some tonight, supporting an uptick in shower/storm chances after midnight, especially across southeast Kansas.
227 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2020 Satellite imagery and 500mb RAP analysis showed a closed low over eastern Canada, with a large trough stretching from the northern Plains to New England. Behind this system, upper ridging built across the western half of the country, placing the region under northwest flow. However, the better potential for storms will be south of the region where a cold front lingers as well as to the west.
Southwesterly flow will deepen across the area Tuesday into Wednesday as a weak mid-level trough lifts north from Louisiana.
341 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2020 Another pleasant, but slightly warmer day in store across our region today. Elsewhere, slightly cooler temperatures are expected as a surface boundary slides south through today.
155 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020 Notably cooler and less humid air will begin to infiltrate the region in the wake of a cold frontal system dropping southeast into the Ohio Valley. Highs today through the end of the week will be in the lower to middle 80s.
355 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020 A cold front will cross the area this afternoon and will push off the Downeast coast this evening. Weak high pressure builds into the region tonight.
1127 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2020 Early afternoon VIS imagery showed CU building over the higher terrain. Showers will increase in coverage west of the Laramie Range Tuesday morning, becoming more numerous with scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon as copious moisture streams northward ahead of an approaching upper trough from the northwest. Showers and thunderstorms diminish from west to east Tuesday night, increasing Wednesday as the upper trough slowly tracks southeast across the CWA.
1217 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2020 Lingering showers and thunderstorms will diminish this evening, as a cold front pushes south across our area. Cold front has pushed approximately as far south as I-72/Danville this evening, and should be south of I-70 by midnight. The cold front is making some headway into the northwest corner of the CWA now, with dew points dropping from the low 70s to the mid 60s between Galesburg and Moline. With the drier air arriving, lows in the lower 60s are expected over much of central Illinois. While temperatures reach the mid 80s on Tuesday, the lower dew points will make it feel much more comfortable. Longer range models continue to build the upper ridge just west of the Rockies late this week, keeping more of a northwest flow feeding the Midwest states.
222 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020 In the wake of a cold front. Otherwise high pressure over the Ohio Valley will support fair dry weather through tonight. An upper level low will track from Eastern Ontario to Eastern Quebec during this period.
1036 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2020 Weak ridging will be across central WY this afternoon, which will continue to produce warm and dry conditions for the central third of the state. Temperatures Tuesday will be noticeably cooler and more comfortable for all but the lower elevations of Johnson County. The models remain consistent involving the expected ridging to the south of the forecast area on Wednesday with isolated/widely scattered showers/storms expected elsewhere.
This was embedded in a large area of upper level low pressure over northern parts of Manitoba and Ontario. We expect lows in the lower to middle fifties for most areas but some mid to upper forties will occur across the Iron Range into the Borderland. The upper low/trough will move east Wednesday and high pressure at the surface will build into the Northland.
225 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low in northern Ontario with an associated trough over the upper Great Lakes this morning. There is also a ridge across the Rockies and sern U. The trough moves into the lower Great Lakes this forecast period.
Deep moisture will combine with a developing upper low moving out the Great Basin, to trigger showers and thunderstorms through the period. For today, water vapor imagery was already showing mid level moisture increasing over southern Montana and northern Wyoming as the upper low spins up over Idaho. The upper low is progged to advance into Yellowstone Park this afternoon. Enough sun will get through the mid to high level clouds to warm things up into the 80s with dewpoints gradually rising into the lower 50s through the day. Convection will get going over the higher terrain and drift very slowly north. The upper low pushes into northeast Wyoming with PWATs rising to around 1.
Morning lows in the low to mid 70s. Today and Tonight: Upper ridge across the area weakens as trough axis associated with upper low over Canada pushes further eastward through the Great Lakes and into the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a lee-side trough is expected to be setting up over the region through the day, which will be a focusing mechanism for afternoon convection. In addition, convective models indicating that additional convection may develop across the coastal plain as the sea-breeze moves inland towards the lee- side trough. The troughs across the area will combine with moderate instability again this afternoon, and expecting greater shower/storm coverage.
High temperatures in the low-mid 90s inland and low 90s for the coast.
Anticipating a rather quiet day ahead with highs slightly warmer than yesterday, but still just below average for the end of July. Ridging aloft will shift east slightly and dominate only briefly today before it begins to break down. As the upper level ridging begins to break down, the next system prepares to slide through the Plains. A short wave trof begins to deepen over southern MT/ northern WY Tues night. As the deepening parent trof approaches from the NW, it looks to eventually close off on Wednesday. Rain and cooler temps as a trof takes its time moving south through the Plains. then dry again and warmer, but still below average.
Temperatures are going to be quite warm the next few days as high pressure begins to build into the southwest.
1021 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected through part of today with a crossing cold front. Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are then expected through the week under a trough of low pressure. A passing cold front will push south and east of the region today, with scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm possible along the boundary for northeast WV and the southeast ridges. A gradual clearing trend is expected behind the front under dry advection and building high pressure, though afternoon CU may mar the return of sunny skies. Cooler air and strong radiational cooling with clearing skies will yield more seasonable overnight temperature, with low potential for patchy fog within river valleys.
High pressure over the southwest United States will flex its muscle, providing dry conditions and sending daytime temperatures soaring back towards the 100 degree mark. Models are in pretty good agreement and this should be the last convective day/evening before high pressure strengthens over the Great Basin. High pressure over the Baja region will begin to strengthen while a short wave low skips across northeast Nevada. High pressure will strengthen and dramatically shift north, re-centering over the southern tip of Nevada.
Current temps are a little cooler across most of the area compared to 24 hours ago and generally range from the mid 40s in the colder mountain valleys to the upper 70s across the north end of the Sacramento Valley. The weak trough that has been lingering along the coast the past several days will be displaced by high pressure extending up from the Desert Southwest.
The area remains under anticyclonically curved northwest flow with a dome of high pressure over the desert southwest.
640 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020 Highs today will reach the lower to middle 80s with plenty of sunshine, though it will be notably less humid than yesterday.
Latest HRRR and RAP13 runs indicate isold to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms developing in a theta-e ridge along and N of I-20 this afternoon and evening. Isold coverage PoPs were added to the Permian Basin and SE New Mexico as well as the mountains where upslope flow against the higher terrain will be present. Warmer and drier conditions are expected Wed-Thur as the upper ridge located over the Desert Southwest strengthens and expands into our region.
Aside from a small chance of showers and thunderstorms, the highlight of the short term is hot afternoon highs.
Early this morning, high pressure was located over the region. Dewpoints in the low 60s with lows in the mid to low 60s was a respite from the heat and humidity of this past weekend. This wave is expected to move through the lower Great Lakes through the short term. Discussion: A reinforcing shot of cooler air is expected to push south into the area today.
Despite the high clouds insulating the sfc some, recent rains combined with light winds result in patchy fog and low stratus this early morning. For today, upper ridge axis shifts into the northern plains, allowing a southerly embedded trough to enter western Kansas by the evening. Temps today remain on the cooler side with readings in the low to middle 80s.
Weak upr ridging was situated ovr the FA, with a stalled fntl bndry noted acrs SRN MO. Meanwhile, the overall upr flow pattern acrs the lower 48 wl cont to bcm more amplified heading into Wed, as an upr low drops SWD into SERN Canada, and ridging incrs ovr the WRN U. The potential for locally heavy rainfall wl exist, but fcst confidence rmns low regarding the placement of the higher QPF values attm.