Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Tonight and Tuesday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show upper troughing persisting over the western Great Lakes early this afternoon. Northwest flow between high pressure over Minnesota and low pressure over the east-coast is still contributing to broken clouds across much of northern and eastern WI. Therefore expect broken clouds and a few flurries to likely linger over far northern WI early in the evening, then should see clearing occur from southwest to northeast as high pressure slides into the region. High pressure will quickly shift to the central Great Lakes.
Cold front now pushing through southeastern Middle TN.
The cold front, clearly visible from TLH radar, is pushing across southwestern Georgia and into the Big Bend region at this hour.
Moderate to strong offshore flow will continue into the afternoon hours over the offshore waters as high pressure continues to push southward. Expect a brief decrease in wind speeds late this afternoon, but another surge of high pressure arrives this evening and will push wind speeds back to SCA levels over the offshore waters for most of tonight.
Chilly, fair weather expected for Tuesday and Tuesday night as high pressure builds east across the region. Lows Tuesday night will likely end up in the low to mid 20s.
240 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2018 High pressure was located over eastern Kansas this afternoon with most sites reporting light and variable winds.
Much cooler temperatures will follow the front as Canadian high pressure builds southward.
WAA continues as an H85 thermal ridge approaches the area with temps rising to around 8C by 12z. Potential exists for a big warmup, albeit brief, as a cold front is knocking on the door and the upper ridge breaks down. Forcing/lift are decent ahead of the cold front, but a large layer of dry air exists below H6, negating any precip chances through 00z.
High pressure over the western states will result in dry weather and above average temperatures for the coming week. High pressure in place across northern Arizona will lead to a round of dry conditions, along with high temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday at most places. High pressure will build across the southwest United States and Arizona today before gradually moving back to a position off the California coast later in the week. The real story will be high pressure and an associated mild air mass which will result in warming daytime temperatures across Arizona.
Upper trof producing some snow across the Great Lakes region this afternoon will deepen slightly as it approaches the NYPENN area tonight and Tuesday. Can't say for sure if this is a classic NORLUN trof (as they are rare here), but this trof may still be a catalyst for some local snow enhancement. As the system moves east tomorrow, best forcing rotates around the base of the trof and out to sea, the precipitation will wane fairly quickly before reaching much of the Catskills. Late at night, as ridging builds in surface and aloft, any residual flurries should end.
1229 PM EST Mon Jan 29 2018 Low pressure near the coast will move northeastward and farther away from the forecast area today.
Cold front has pushed through the area not that you can really resolve the front in any kind of analysis. Northerly winds have increased and expect temperatures to make it into the low 60s with cold advection. Otherwise high pressure should build over the area tonight and move east tomorrow. /ISSUED 442 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2018/ High pressure over TX being replaced by incoming colder airmass. At midnight the associated cold front had just passed through Central Oklahoma. Temperatures should struggle a little this afternoon given the CAA reaching on the lower to mid 60s. ) Cooler night on tap with colder/drier air in place over the region and some areas may even see winds decouple entirely which would allow temperatures to dip even lower than current forecast.
304 PM EST Mon Jan 29 2018 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the upper Great Lakes and central U.
1040mb high centered over MN and the upper MS Valley extends down into TX with the ridge axis from Dallas to Laredo. The upper level pattern of ridging over the SW U. and trough in the East will be replaced with a flatter upper flow and broad upper trough across the northern plains. This pattern will create lee side troughing and help switch around winds to the south on Tuesday. This will mean even warmer temps along with slightly higher RH on Tue.
Aloft, an amplified ridge west/trough east pattern over NOAM is apparent via both WV imagery and 00z H5 upper air analysis. Then development of the eastern CONUS trough and how amplified the pattern will become and how much cold air moves over the region. Tuesday night the warm front surges east and appears enough lift generated for at least an area of light snow across the eastern cwa Tuesday night.
Mostly clear skies prevail across the TN Valley this morning, as high pressure builds southward and into the area. A reinforcing cold front is slowly moving through the region and will drop south of the area by this afternoon. Temperatures as of 9 am had already risen into the lower to mid 40s and with ample sunshine, we should see these temps rise another 5 to 10 degrees with daytime highs maxing out in the mid 50s. Daytime highs will be around 10 degrees below normal in the lower 40s.
This NW flow will bring a cooler airmass in across the area with temps getting down into the 20s and 30s through Tue morning.
Temperatures are hovering near freezing, so no travel problems are anticipated. Energy within the base of a mid level trof that extended from Great Lakes to the Mississippi Valley region, will move east today. Quiet weather tonight through Tuesday night as high pressure moves across the area. It will be cooler as well.
Upgraded the High Wind Watch to a Warning for most of the Watch area, including most of the I-25 corridor, the Laramie Valley, and the other wind prone areas along I-80. Strong winds will slowly subside early Tuesday night with the arrival of the next cold front across the wind prone areas, although most of the other locations will see diminishing wind speeds around sunset.
Vis sat imagery showed a few streaks of cirrus clouds across South Dakota that will have no impact on Iowa as they slowly drift eastward with the longwave trough that will continue to propagate eastward through the Ohio Valley region. 20z Water vapor imagery picking up on a sizable upper low off the coast of British Columbia, with a thermal ridge building ahead of this low over the intermountain west.
The ridge of high pressure centered over the southwestern CONUS can be seen breaking down on satellite this afternoon as energy ejected out ahead of a Pacific trough begins to move inland.
High pressure gradually moves into the Upper Mississippi River Valley from the west today. Much cooler temperatures move into the region tonight with lows ranging from the single digits below zero over north central Wisconsin to the single digits above zero across northeast Iowa.
Together this will set the stage for a chilly night across the region as low temperatures are expected to drop off into the lower to mid teens in most areas. On Tuesday expect another seasonally chilly day, with highs into the lower 30s. Gusty southerly winds are likely into Tuesday night as the low begins to shift into western Ontario. KJB 323 AM CST Conditions expected to be dry at the start of the period, with high pressure across the region. Pattern remains fairly progressive though, with upper level trough and surface reflection moving through the region through midweek.
Temperatures will warm quickly tomorrow into the upper 60s as southwesterly winds increase along a tightening surface pressure gradient and H85 winds around 35-40kts on the back side of a ridge over SE Texas.
Expecting less than 5KT or even calm overnight with a light frost and another stellar day for Tuesday as high pressure slides E, shifting sfc and low levels to E and then SE with time.
High pressure advancing into the area will provide decreasing winds and mostly clear skies the last half of the night. The cold airmass will be slow to respond to the warming southerly flows, with highs mainly in the low to mid 30s, with areas near Jacksonville possibly reaching the upper 30s.
and Tuesday Morning flurries will continue across much of the area as a trough of low pressure tracks through the western Great Lakes. Once this trough slides east high pressure will settle in across the region bringing noticeably cooler temperatures, especially tonight. Further north, lake effect snow will slowly wind down tonight as northerly winds turn to a more westerly and eventually calm as the ridge moves directly overhead. The aforementioned high will slide east on Tuesday, allowing low pressure to move east through southern Canada towards the northwestern Great Lakes. Some light snow is possible across north-central Wisconsin Tuesday afternoon as the low approaches, however accumulations will be fairly light if at all.
The ridge moves east during the day on Tuesday, with a return southerly flow kicking in quickly during the afternoon.
This on a dry north to northwest flow through the low and mid levels, westerly aloft. Northerly winds currently around 6 KT will strengthen to around 12-14 KT with gusts to 20 KT late this morning behind the cold frontal passage. /issued 400 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2018/ A dry cold front continues to work its way south though the area this morning delineated by the roughly 10 degree temperature difference noted between the Lake Charles airport and DeQuincy observing stations. Temperatures this afternoon will still manage to make it into the low to mid 60's beneath a clear sky before efficient radiational cooling conditions allow them to drop quickly after sunset into the mid to upper 30s (about 5 degrees cooler than we're seeing this morning).
By this afternoon, the high is starting to move to the east and winds will turn to the south. As the high moves off to the east tonight, the pressure gradient increases and there is more warm advection. Temperatures tonight will be almost 10 degrees warmer than currently. Tuesday morning will have the best pressure gradient and by afternoon the pressure gradient weakens as a cold front approaches.
Secondary cold front pushing through SE TX at this time and seeing some gusty winds in its wake this afternoon. Winds should be shifting to the east by tomorrow as the high beg- ins to drift east. Cold front has pushed through the area not that you can really resolve the front in any kind of analysis. Northerly winds have increased and expect temperatures to make it into the low 60s with cold advection. Otherwise high pressure should build over the area tonight and move east tomorrow.
Area now under a dry north to northwest flow between a progressive mid-upper level trof over the eastern CONUS and an amplified ridge advancing into the plains.
After a mostly sunny day clouds were beginning to increase in the northwest as a 500 MB vorticity maximum moving through the back side of the trough heads toward the eastern Tennessee Valley and southern Appalchians. North to northwest winds have increased with cold air advection and drier airmass with the trough moving down from the NW. In the lower elevations the precipitation will begin as rain then switch to snow before or after midnight. The lows tonight will fall into the 20s.
A cold front will reach the coast late this afternoon and early evening, and winds will increase ahead of it, especially aloft and over higher terrain. A cold front will move into the waters this afternoon, producing steep wind driven seas. Models have trended faster with the cold front passage through the coast this evening.
Upper ridging will dominate the forecast, which makes for a quite a quiet pattern. Today, that ridge is being flatten out some, allowing for some high clouds to work their way into the region. A second wave of high clouds expected midweek before the ridge amplifies across the west.
This system being cut off from its moisture source as a ridge builds over the Gulf of Alaska, so don't see it being a major precipitation producer. Pretty breezy on the ridgetops as the front passes.
A warmer day expected as the flow aloft backs slightly to northwest with rising heights and thicknesses. Craig to Casper 850/700 mb height gradients exceed 70 meters, thus we will expand the high wind watch to include lower elevations like Douglas, Wheatland, Laramie and Rawlins. Although winds aloft will remain strong, the passage of a cold front will help to decrease winds somewhat.
Temperatures under the persistent mountain wave will slightly slightly cooler but still in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Ridge of high pressure aloft over the Great Basin will translate eastward across Colorado today through tonight. Main story today will be less wind in the mountains and plains along with warmer temperatures. As the ridge axis shifts east this evening, there will be a stronger westerly flow developing later tonight. Strong winds along and east of the Continental Divide down over the higher foothills will continue Tuesday morning, increasing in the afternoon. Still, bumped up the forecast windspeeds in the high country as well as in the afternoon over the plains with mixing, as the forecast was too light.
A cold front along the WA coast early Mon will move se through nw OR and sw WA today and tonight, bringing a period of rain and ushering in a cooler more seasonable air mass into the region. A warm frontal system brings more chances for rain during the latter part of the week.
249 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2018 (Tonight and Tuesday) Weak cold front has moved across much of West Central Texas today, producing light northeast winds. Winds will return to the south by morning, so hilltops will have better mixing and allow them to stay a few degrees warmer. Warmer on Tuesday with gusty southwest winds developing.
High pressure will maintain a very mild airmass across the region through Tuesday.
Mid and high clouds east have limited sunshine to partly sunny conditions with temps from the mid 30s to the lower and mid 40s. These numbers will be above normal for the entire region and will be a jumping point going into tuesday for even warmer conditions. Looking for a trend in temps to range from the 60s to the lower 70s from NE to SW. lee- side trough works off the Front Range and into the Plains region.
In addition, the GFS and NAM continue to hint at a few hour period where ice could be lost in the cloud, leading to freezing rain/drizzle chances instead of snow. Will leave some small freezing potential in the I-94 corridor north for now. With the northwest flow will come periodic ripples/troughs that could bring snow chances. A ridge of high pressure will continue to build across western Wisconsin this afternoon. On Tuesday morning, the mid and high clouds will increase ahead of an approaching warm front.
These clouds will likely remain in the area today as high pressure gradually retreats to the east. Will stick with blended guidance high temperatures for the most part though the potential is for warmer readings. Frontal passage will shift winds around to the west, with cooler temperatures aloft.
242 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2018 Tonight will be quiet as high pressure moves overhead which leads to temperatures falling to the single digits above and below zero across the region. A band of clouds will spread across the area which will be the leading edge of the warmer air. Tuesday night will see nearly steady or slowly rising temperatures as the warmer air continues to move northward across the region.
Early this morning the cold front has made its way into far southern Missouri and will be south of the area in the next few hours. The winds will diminish this afternoon as high pressure begins to work its way into the region from the west.
Further to the north and west across ne tx/sw ar/se ok where nw winds to exceed 15 mph, aftn temps will remain mostly in the lower to middle 50s. /issued 523 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2018/ Northwest winds to increase to 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts across area terminals today as high pressure rebuilds across the region. Cold front will move through our region today, bringing some gusty nwly winds. Wind speeds will gradually decrease as the pressure gradient relaxes this aftn, and high pressure builds in over the region.
333 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2018 Reinforcing cold front this aftn will only knock back temps and dewpoints in current cool high pressure airmass, only a few more degrees. Overnight lows generally in upper 20s to lower 30s, although dewpoints into the teens for northern sections could see some cooler temps if wind manages to totally decouple before daybreak as high pressure center settles into Red River Valley by midday Tuesday.
High pressure will build west of the region Tuesday and cross the area late in the day.
This is helping enough of a pressure gradient for winds to remain gusty as the cold front moves through. In addition, the trough and lift to our north is helping some low-mid level clouds move into the Highway 82 corridor. This will help for a much colder night, with lows falling below freezing into the mid-upper 20s areawide. Expect a dry and cooler day with only a few high passing clouds in the north.
The downslope flow will lead to max temps rebounding nicely for Tue, with max temps climbing back into middle 50s for most locations, and with the low 60s possible across central KS. With the increasing winds, and warmer temps, there will be some elevated grassland fire weather concerns for Tue afternoon. The first in a rapid succession of cold fronts, will drop south across the plains on Tue night or early Wed. Not alot of moisture as this front pushes south, with cooler air pushing south across the area on Wed. The next chance for any measurable precipitation looks to arrive late Sat night as the next, and much stronger, cold front surges S/SE across KS late Sat afternoon/evening.
Dry cold front moving through early this morning will re-enforce ne winds, but turning back to e-se 18Z-21Z today, all the while remaining 12kts or less. /issued 310 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2018/ A fairly weak cold front is moving through the region tonight, shifting winds to the NE. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler (particularly for areas north of I-10) today but expect another beautiful day regardless.
The axis of the mid level trough that's swinging this moisture through the area should quickly move east and take any lingering flurries with it by midnight tonight.
CAA in northerly flow between the ridge and the low will force temperatures down into the mid 30s from Dothan to Albany, increasing to the southeast to around 40 degrees in the southeast Big Bend.
Across western zones, SW winds will be lighter, in proximity of the lee trough. The large scale pattern over the next 10 days will feature west- northwesterly mid to high level flow from the eastern Pacific across the central and eastern United States, with a mean trough over the Great Lakes and ridge near the west coast.
The weekend looks mostly dry, with warm temperatures, as high pressure builds back over the region. An upper-level trough will continue to move slowly northeast, as well as gradually weaken/shear out through Friday. On Friday, it may take until mid to late morning for the lower clouds and fog to lift/burn off.
The occluded low over Ohio will lift northeastward today, with a weak, broad upper low lingering west of the area over the Texas and Louisiana coast. POPs will generally range between 30 and 40% in this area, with the highest chances in the eastern Big Bend region.
Weak high pressure will hold across the area tonight into the weekend with Jose well off the coast. Weak high pressure will continue ridging into the area through tonight while the remnants of Irma push into New England. Temperatures are on track this afternoon and will max out in the lower 80s west to upper 80s east.
South winds later today support warmer temperatures at least the next couple of days. South winds and copious sunshine should allow for warmer temperatures with near 90F readings in the west to lower 80s far east. This will also result in lows a bit warmer mostly in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. Deep trough in the western United States and ridging in the east is expected to remain locked in place for the foreseeable future.
Unsettled weather will last through Friday as weak low pressure remains over the northeast. Satellite imagery continues to show a northeastward progression of the upper-level trough across the mid-Atlantic region at midday. Highs were nudged downward just a bit, based on fairly thick cloud cover most areas, but readings should still manage to reach the low-mid 70s for most locales. Upper level low over Ohio will lift northeast as it weakens and move into New York and Pennsylvania. Highs will be in the lower to middle 70s.
Thick smoke over the area today has kept temps a few degrees cooler than forecast and has minimized CU development. This should keep temps from falling quite as much tonight, so went with a slightly warmer blend, but think thinner smoke tomorrow will allow highs in the low to mid 80s central and west and in the 70s east. The ridge parked over the eastern CONUS continues to dominate, but some guidance is indicating heights trying to lower heading into the second half of the weekend. This would suggest the western trough may try to push a series of weak low pressure systems further east and increase chances for precip, along with more clouds and slightly cooler temps.
At that time, leeside low pressure will have developed across western Kansas and Nebraska, as a broad troughing pattern continues to develop to the northwest, with an axis situated across the northern Rockies extending to the southwestern CONUS.
For tomorrow, the weak residual upper trough strung out across the Lower Mississippi Valley will still be around and have the surface reflection of low level convergence set up across the southeastern third of our forecast area.
Once clouds and fog burn off, a fairly warm day will be on tap as a large upper level ridge will shift overhead and low level flow turns southerly.
The lowest ~10,000ft of the air mass is quite dry so rainfalls should be minimal. Tonight: With a more assertive southerly flow lows would likewise be warmer than the past 3 or nights. upper- deck wave & its attendant cold front. With broad & STRONG mid- upper deck ridging nearly covering the southeastern half of the U. This would cause the attendant SE-moving cold front to move further into Nebraska & Northwest KS late Fri night & Sat.
/BB/ Update through this evening: Residual weak troughing remains draped southwest over the Lower MS Valley in the wake of final departed remnants of Irma. Otherwise, temperatures will continue to trend warmer, but still certainly not above normal yet for mid September. Mid level troughing will linger over the region today while surface ridging noses across the southeast states from the east. Just east of the mid level trough axis, across our southeast zones, PWATs will remain above an inch and a half. Temperatures will top out closer to normal but, will still be a couple degrees cooler than normal at most locations. Cooler than normal temperatures will continue tonight but the warming trend started today will continue into Friday.
A series of storm systems will bring cooler and wetter conditions to Utah and southwest Wyoming through Friday.
138 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017 Aviation Areas of dense fog will lift this morning and high pressure will bring fair weather through the end of the week.