Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
629 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022 A weak cold front has pushed through western NE, as lingering showers or thunderstorms exist to the southwest and south of the forecast area. Some damaging winds also occurred, with the highest wind gust of 81 mph recorded at Imperial last evening. A closed upper low will remain centered over Ontario Canada today. A cooler airmass will reside over the Great Lakes and Northern Plains. Highs will range in the upper 70s to around 80, slight cooler than the previous forecast. Friday, weak upper ridging develops with a slight increase in moisture across the western Sandhills. 5C/KM across the western half of the FA as highs reach the low to mid 80s.
430 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022 (Issued 430 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022) Today and Tonight: A cold front is slinking through southern WI early this morning. Cooler and more comfortable temps/dewpoints are expected tonight.
High pressure continues to ridge across Florida. High pressure ridging across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico will keep a SE wind flow over the eastern gulf waters with sea breezes turning winds onshore near the coast each afternoon.
/issued 350 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022/ SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): The weak inverted 500mb trough yesterday was able to combine with above normal PWAT values to kick up a couple of thunderstorms and a new daily record rainfall for HRL. High pressure builds again today along the lower Texas coast with the best PWAT values hanging offshore.
An upper level ridge continues to build today over Northern California into the weekend which will continue to bring a northerly northeasterly flow to the San Joaquin Valley. The ridge will start to move towards the Great Basin and the Four Corners during the weekend as a trough starts to move in across Oregon and the very Northern portion of California.
646 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022 Summary: Another day with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms is expected with cooler than normal temperatures.
An upstream upper level ridge of higher heights continues to dominate The Treasure State.
High pressure continues over the northern California region, making way for Arizona to be in the path of a southwesterly surge of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California. This looks to remain the case for the next 7 to 10 days with the only change seeming to be a shift of high pressure (still in a location typical for monsoon moisture to advect into Arizona).
In terms of the overall evolution, the frontal boundary that has allowed for rounds of activity this week will begin to wash out as an upper level longwave trough pivots through the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. A stacked low will sit across Ontario, dragging a secondary cold front towards the area tomorrow. Temperature-wise, breaks in cloud coverage today will allow for highs in the low and mid 80s, before cooling into the upper 70s to around 80 tomorrow with the passing front.
High pressure follows through this weekend with dry and seasonable weather. Weak cold front upstream across WI will slip quickly ewd today as parent upper low releases through James Bay. Otherwise some redevelopment along this feature possible toward this evening as it encounters residual theta-e ridging along a PLD to AOH line. Building sfc ridging follows in wake of this sys Fri. Thereafter stout mid lvl ridge briefly amplifies aloft through the wrn OH valley/srn lakes and signals a return of hot and humid wx to the area mid week. A weak upper level trof was helping to support light showers over far southern WI into northeast IL.
SR Chattanooga Airport, TN 94 74 90 73 88 / 50 40 80 50 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 73 86 71 85 / 70 40 80 60 70 Oak Ridge, TN 91 72 85 71 84 / 70 50 80 60 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 70 83 68 82 / 60 40 80 50 60 VA.
Friday and Friday night: Upper ridge remains across the region through the day, then upper trough will be digging southeastward towards the Mid-Atlantic states Friday night. Main cold front remains well off to the north through the daytime hours, then begins to approach the northern cwa late Friday night.
A cooler/drier Canadian airmass has pushed south into NE this afternoon with dew points ranging from the 50s across southwest NE and 40s across northern NE. A cold front has settled well south of the area area across KS into CO, and this will be where the thunder focus will be through tonight into Friday. A weak warm front will be situated near the SD border of Cherry and Sheridan counties and could serve as the focus for isolated thunderstorms.
That system will promote the equatorward advance of cooler, Canadian air into locations east of the MO River on Friday with warming conditions forecast over the High Plains. Highs on Friday will be a bit warmer than today with readings in the lower to mid 80s.
411 PM EDT Thu Jul 28 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chance returns on Friday with a reinforcing cold front.
126 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022 19z surface analysis had weak frontal boundary meandering from southern WY into northern KS and a trough from central MT into central WY. Water vapour loop depicted upper ridge over OR/CA with very weak disturbances from BC/AB to WY/CO.
Over the next several days we will experience a cooler and wetter pattern.
Persistence is the name of the game with ridge positioning still nestled over most of the Lone Star state with monsoonal moisture gradient transposed over the western reaches of TX and the high terrain of SE NM. Highs will run 2-4 degrees warmer than current temps, well in line with the previous forecast. A weak cold front will settle to the north of the forecast area on Friday as it gets convectively driven south from storms that transpire this afternoon over the northern Panhandle.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): An elongated mid level ridge is currently spread across the Southeast and will remain there through the short term. With subsidence from this ridge dominating Deep South Texas, diurnal convection will have a hard time kicking off early this weekend, but a very weak perturbation in the mid level flow may be enough to weaken the subsidence over Deep South Texas on Friday.
The cold frontal convergence is clearing the far southeast CWA as of 130 PM, though the higher dew point air and actual effective air mass if further south by a few tiers of counties. Friday will see 1018 mb high pressure build over the Upper and Mid Mississippi River Valleys. MTF A generally quiet weekend is in store with broad ridging overhead and the unseasonably strong upper-level jet focused over the Ohio River Valley into the Northeast.
CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 90 73 88 72 / 40 80 50 70 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 86 71 85 71 / 40 80 60 70 40 Oak Ridge, TN 72 85 71 84 70 / 50 80 60 60 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 83 68 82 67 / 40 80 50 60 40 VA.
The high humidity will help hold temperatures down, especially in areas where rain occurs. Our forecast area will remain between an inverted trough over Arizona and a closed high centered over northern California and northern Nevada. Clockwise rotation around the high will converge with the leading edge of the inverted trough resulting in a persistent steering flow from northeast to southwest. 5 inches and surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s remain in place over most of Clark, eastern San Bernardino and Mohave counties which corresponds to the areas with highest instability indicated by surface based CAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg.
Additionally, there are some indications of a storm complex coming off the high plains and moving into northwest Oklahoma.
1232 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022 Summary: Another day with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms is expected with cooler than normal temperatures.
1048 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022 (Issued 1047 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022) Modest nwly sfc winds and weak cold advection will continue today into Fri as the large low pressure area over Ontario moves into Quebec. The cooler air aloft and 50 dewpoints will be enough for partly cloudy skies from late morning through the afternoon today and Fri. High pressure will then slowly move across the region for Fri nt-Sat. Gehring (Issued 430 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022) Today and Tonight: A cold front is slinking through southern WI early this morning. Cooler and more comfortable temps/dewpoints are expected tonight.
This ridging should keep the area dry later tonight into Friday with temperatures just a few degrees below normal for this time of year.
Ensembles continue to indicate 850 mb temperatures in the climatological 10th percentile through tonight, and while lows are typically in the lower to mid 60s for this time of year, we will see temperatures drop into the lower to mid 50s overnight. As a southerly flow increases with the high continuing to slide to the east, Friday night will be milder with lows stepping up a bit - in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
A deep layer ridge of high pressure will continue to nose westward across the western Atlantic and much of the Deep South through Friday afternoon. A deeply moist airmass will remain entrenched across our forecast area underneath the ridge axis. Lows tonight are forecast to range in the lower to mid 70s over inland areas and in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees along the coast. Highs on Friday are expected to warm into the lower to mid 90s over inland portions of the forecast area and generally around 90 degrees along the immediate coast.
Ahead of the disturbance, mostly clear skies with temperatures reaching the lower 90s.
The warming trend continues, with many locations 5 degrees warmer today than the previous day, which is still 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal averages. - Pierce 1133 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022 (28/18Z TAF period) VFR conditions will prevail at most terminals through the forecast period under a northwest flow around high pressure centered west of the area. An upstream upper level ridge of higher heights continues to dominate The Treasure State.
1245 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022 A weak cold front has pushed through western NE, as lingering showers or thunderstorms exist to the southwest and south of the forecast area. Some damaging winds also occurred, with the highest wind gust of 81 mph recorded at Imperial last evening. A closed upper low will remain centered over Ontario Canada today. A cooler airmass will reside over the Great Lakes and Northern Plains. Highs will range in the upper 70s to around 80, slight cooler than the previous forecast. Friday, weak upper ridging develops with a slight increase in moisture across the western Sandhills. 5C/KM across the western half of the FA as highs reach the low to mid 80s.
Cooler temperatures are expected through the weekend.
The warming trend continues, with many locations 5 degrees warmer today than the previous day, which is still 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal averages. Additionally, due to very dry conditions in the low levels, any potential mid level moisture that my fall will fall virga. An upstream upper level ridge of higher heights continues to dominate The Treasure State.
Water vapor imagery shows a mid-upper level trough near the Turks and Caicos Islands, with a surge of moisture in the southerly flow east of this system.
UA and sfc ridging persists across the CWA this aftn, resulting in continued srly sfc flow. Elongated ridging will be in place aloft Friday but will weaken some as a trough slides across the northeast U.
229 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022 High pressure will center over the state sometime this evening through tonight and gradually slide southeastward through the day Friday. Lows tonight will drop into the low 50s for most locations, although temperatures as low as the mid 40s are possible again for parts of southwestern ND. Temperatures begin warming on Friday the area begins to come under the influence of a west CONUS ridge and flow at the surface becomes southerly. Expect highs on Friday to reach the low to mid 80s for most of the forecast area. Zonal flow aloft will advect warmer air over the region. Meanwhile, southerly flow at the surface will simultaneously pump warmer, moist air into the area.
Weak high pressure will begin to move east, and with clearing skies and fairly light winds, lows tonight should again drop down into the low 50s. A change to the pattern is forecast as the upper level low shifts east across the Canadian provinces and ridge amplification begins.
Pleasant stretch of weather with comfortable temperatures and humidity with clear to partly cloudy skies through Friday, as high pressure settles over the area.
230 PM EDT Thu Jul 28 2022 A cold front will slowly move southeast across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through Friday.
A cold front to our north will continue to move southward, and CAMs have activity ahead of the front moving in later this evening and overnight. Soundings show high freezing levels around 16kft and continued instability overnight, allowing for the potential to see strong updrafts and efficient heavy rain producing storms putting down 1 to 3 inches of rain per hour rainfall rates.
Otherwise, temperatures will remain a few degrees cooler compared to yesterday behind last night's weak cold front. Otherwise, Friday highs will peak a few degrees warmer east of the Divide and about the same west.
These showers are along and north of cold front that is slowly sagging south across the Midsouth. The greatest chance of severe storms may be along a differential heating boundary just south of the cold front. Looking ahead into the new work week, unfortunately the ridge that gave us the hot and humid conditions for what seems like the past month, looks to build back in over the region.
1221 PM EDT Thu Jul 28 2022 Warm and muggy conditions will continue through Friday with a pair of cold fronts creating scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some drier air arriving behind the leading cold front should result in 24hr minT deltas of >5F (lower) over the NW mtns with lows dropping into the upper 50s. However, a deepening upstream trough and secondary cold front will move across the lower Great Lakes and bring a renewed/increasing chance of showers mainly over the western counties into early Friday morning. The aforementioned cold front #2 will push southeast across the region Friday, accompanied by a good chance of showers/tstorms. As the high continues to drift east into the weekend, we expect a nice stretch of weather to close out the month of July with seasonal temperatures and low/comfortable humidity.
Cooler than average high temperatures will also be a result of this pattern. Water vapor shows a small upper level low spinning over the eastern portion of the CWA. Skies are mostly cloudy with showers and embedded thunderstorms along the western periphery of the low. Storms may be somewhat suppressed along the AZ/NM border since this area is on the backside of the low.
Dry and hot is the story across east-central Florida today with high pressure stretching from the Mid- Atlantic over the state. Additionally, temperatures have reached the upper 80s to low 90s which will likely rise a few degrees through the late afternoon thanks to mostly sunny skies with slightly lower dew- point temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Overnight, dry conditions will continue with low temperatures expected to drop into the low-to-mid 70s with slightly warmer temperatures across eastern Martin county.
Strong upper ridge over the Pacific Northwest will continue the record/near record heat across our area today. Heat Advisories and a Warning (for the Lower Treasure Valley OR) remain in effect. Moisture has increased in the mid-upper levels, but it remains dry in the lower levels.
Even greater moisture, following the westward moving and weak inverted trough over the region today, is expected to move across the region tonight/Friday and contribute to at least isolated convection over the CWA Friday.
Latest surface analysis shows broad high pressure is centered across northern and into south central North Dakota early this evening. High pressure will center over the state sometime this evening through tonight and gradually slide southeastward through the day Friday. Lows tonight will drop into the low 50s for most locations, although temperatures as low as the mid 40s are possible again for parts of southwestern ND. Temperatures begin warming on Friday the area begins to come under the influence of a west CONUS ridge and flow at the surface becomes southerly. Expect highs on Friday to reach the low to mid 80s for most of the forecast area. Zonal flow aloft will advect warmer air over the region. Meanwhile, southerly flow at the surface will simultaneously pump warmer, moist air into the area.
626 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022 The moist plume on the northern periphery of the mid/upper ridge remains situated across the Central Plains although the higher quality moisture has continued to sink southward into the Southern Plains. we are progged to remain on the northern periphery of the higher PWAT airmass again on Friday but the effective frontal boundary is progged to continue moving southward with some drier more stable post-frontal air expected to build into the area on Fri afternoon. This is expected to result in more insolation and temperatures were nudged upward slightly from the previous forecast although cooler below normal values are still anticipated.
742 PM EDT Thu Jul 28 2022 Warm and muggy conditions will continue through Friday with a pair of cold fronts creating scattered showers and thunderstorms. Radar loop at 2330Z shows a broken line of convection associated with a weak cold front exiting the eastern edge of the forecast area. The arrival of drier air and surface ridging should result in fair weather the rest of the evening. Cold front #2 pushes southeastward across the region Friday, accompanied by a good chance of showers/tstorms. As the high continues to drift east into the weekend, we expect a nice stretch of weather to close out the month of July with seasonal temperatures and low/comfortable humidity.
540 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022 19z surface analysis had weak frontal boundary meandering from southern WY into northern KS and a trough from central MT into central WY. Water vapour loop depicted upper ridge over OR/CA with very weak disturbances from BC/AB to WY/CO.
1055 PM EDT Thu Jul 28 2022 A developing area of low pressure in the Ohio Valley will track along the Mason Dixon Line Friday. High pressure will then build across Pennsylvania this weekend.
620 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022 Latest surface analysis shows broad high pressure is centered across northern and into south central North Dakota early this evening. High pressure will center over the state sometime this evening through tonight and gradually slide southeastward through the day Friday. Lows tonight will drop into the low 50s for most locations, although temperatures as low as the mid 40s are possible again for parts of southwestern ND. Temperatures begin warming on Friday the area begins to come under the influence of a west CONUS ridge and flow at the surface becomes southerly. Expect highs on Friday to reach the low to mid 80s for most of the forecast area. Zonal flow aloft will advect warmer air over the region. Meanwhile, southerly flow at the surface will simultaneously pump warmer, moist air into the area.
/issued 253 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): An elongated mid level ridge is currently spread across the Southeast and will remain there through the short term. With subsidence from this ridge dominating Deep South Texas, diurnal convection will have a hard time kicking off early this weekend, but a very weak perturbation in the mid level flow may be enough to weaken the subsidence over Deep South Texas on Friday.
Showers continue mainly on the MN side of the forecast area within the cyclonic flow around the upper low over Ontario. Weak high pressure will begin to move east, and with clearing skies and fairly light winds, lows tonight should again drop down into the low 50s. A change to the pattern is forecast as the upper level low shifts east across the Canadian provinces and ridge amplification begins.
714 PM EDT Thu Jul 28 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chance returns on Friday with a reinforcing cold front.
658 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022 Showers continue mainly on the MN side of the forecast area within the cyclonic flow around the upper low over Ontario. Weak high pressure will begin to move east, and with clearing skies and fairly light winds, lows tonight should again drop down into the low 50s. A change to the pattern is forecast as the upper level low shifts east across the Canadian provinces and ridge amplification begins.
Moisture is increasing thanks to an inverted trough moving in from the Bahamas. Otherwise, winds of 10 to 15 mph should keep temperatures in the lower to mid 80s with dew points in the mid 70s.
The dry airmass over the area should keep dew points in the low 70s overnight, and allow the ambient temperature to drop to the low to mid 70s.
331 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022 The effective cold front is currently near the Tennessee border, likely near the east to west oriented band of showers.
358 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2022 High pressure will prevail through tonight.
9 inches as the most recent water vapor imagery shows that the mid to upper level inverted trough is now well inland across Mexico. As usually the case, Austin Mabry will likely be one of the hottest locations with the highs around the 102 to 103 degree mark. Warm conditions persist at night with overnight lows generally ranging from the low 70s into the upper 70s.
Close to a persistence forecast today, as conditions will be quite similar to yesterday with Bermuda high pressure as well as an upr- level ridge anchored offshore. Low PoPs continue into tonight as a weak low-level trough drops into the area and moisture continues to nudge upwards before noticeably higher rain chances arrive Saturday.
Ensembles continue to indicate 850 mb temperatures in the climatological 10th percentile through tonight, and while lows are typically in the lower to mid 60s for this time of year, we will see temperatures drop into the lower to mid 50s overnight. As a southerly flow increases with the high continuing to slide to the east, Friday night will be milder with lows stepping up a bit - in the upper 50s to lower 60s. 850 mb temperatures average about 3 degrees warmer than Friday, so looking at highs into the mid 80s to near 90.
This will keep winds on the lighter side and dew points on the lower side as well.
1101 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022 The moist plume on the northern periphery of the mid/upper ridge remains situated across the Central Plains although the higher quality moisture has continued to sink southward into the Southern Plains. we are progged to remain on the northern periphery of the higher PWAT airmass again on Friday but the effective frontal boundary is progged to continue moving southward with some drier more stable post-frontal air expected to build into the area on Fri afternoon. This is expected to result in more insolation and temperatures were nudged upward slightly from the previous forecast although cooler below normal values are still anticipated. The highest probabilities are expected across extreme southern KS where some beneficial rainfall is anticipated during the morning hours on Sat.
On Saturday, slightly warmer in upper 70s to mid 80s. The upper pattern is continued to be forecasted to have an upper ridge axis move from the Western CONUS to the Eastern CONUS during the week. This will have the Tri-State area under the ridge's influence with generally warmer and drier temperatures, especially near the beginning of the week when the axis may be near or over the area. There is still some uncertainty towards the end of the week as it isn't clear how far east the ridge axis will go and if any troughs will try to move in from the upstream direction. Current ensemble guidance is favoring the ridge over the area with the trough staying further northwest for now.
220 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2022 Upper ridge over the Pacific NW will extend its influence across the Northern High Plains in varying degrees this weekend.