Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
928 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 VERY QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 42 76 52 75 / 0 0 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 41 73 49 71 / 0 0 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 41 74 49 71 / 0 0 0 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 38 71 45 65 / 0 0 0 20.
1022 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH BRIEF CLEARING AND A DIMINISHING WIND. FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THE WIND HAS DROPPED OFF MARKEDLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS THE HIGH BUILDS OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE OFF TO THE NE. TO BETWEEN 30-32F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
/ISSUED 733 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015/ LIGHT SEA BREEZES EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. /ISSUED 249 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015/ A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.
805 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
702 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OVERHEAD WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 40S.
An upper level low pressure system is continuing to bring moisture across the Rockies. At lower levels, a surface cold front has moved across the Canadian border and will move through the central zones after midnight. A cold front will push south through north-central MT tonight under a continued moist westerly flow aloft. VFR conditions will deteriorate to MVFR at N-central MT terminals tonight with occasional IFR conditions at KCTB and KHVR where cooler temperatures will also bring a transition to -SN after midnight.
738 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. KCCX VELOCITY PATTERN SHOWS COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM JUST N OF KIPT TO JUST S OF KDUJ AT 2150Z. HIGH PRES RIDGE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS WILL BUILD SE FROM THE GRT LKS OVERNIGHT. BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND RH PROFILES INDICATE THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHOULD BE MORE SUCCESSFUL IN BRINGING DRIER AND BRIGHTER CONDITIONS WITH A DECENT BREEZE OUT OF THE NW AT 10-20 MPH.
632 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015 00Z TAF CYCLE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE PANHANDLES EARLY TONIGHT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
718 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT REMAINS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015/ MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE UPPER TX COAST WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD TO THE SWRN LA COASTLINE AND SERN LA. ALTHOUGH BEST POPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT TOWARD THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE LOW/BOUNDARY DRIFT INLAND TONIGHT.
/ISSUED 632 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015/ 00Z TAF CYCLE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE PANHANDLES EARLY TONIGHT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE HIGH WILL BUILD FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND THEN LINGER OVERHEAD DURING SUNDAY. DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
WARM AIR ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE OVER COOLER SURFACE AIR ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT. THIS COULD CREATE SOME FREEZING PRECIPITATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER EASTERN MONTANA UP INTO SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA WHILE DEEP LOW SPINS NEAR JAMES BAY BRINGING NORTHWEST FLOW TO OUR AREA. SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH ITS WAY OVER THE RIDGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE SLEET OF FREEZING RAIN MAINLY OVER THE FAR WEST SO HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF THAT. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM STILL LOOK TO BE THE HIGHEST MAINLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST.
/ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015/ MATURE UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE DAVIS MTNS WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEAST BEFORE ITS DEFORMATION ZONE EXITS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THIS LOW AND STIPPLING OF CLOUDS IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE INDICATE NO SHORTAGE OF LIFT. HEIGHT FIELDS AND THICKNESSES REBOUND NICELY TOMORROW DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER RIDGE.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 51 62 49 68 / 20 50 60 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 47 63 46 65 / 10 20 30 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 47 64 45 65 / 10 20 30 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 42 63 41 61 / 0 10 30 10.
A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN RIDGE HAS BROKEN DOWN IN RESPONSE TO A WAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TOMORROW. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME BUILDUPS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL UTAH AND UINTAS DRIVEN BY MARGINAL DIURNAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
612 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL GIVE WAY AS A COLD FRONT MAKES PASSAGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALSO AT PLAY WILL BE A DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROF MOVING INTO THE MS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT- TMRW. THE NET EFFECT WILL BE A SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL NICE DAY TMRW WITH JUST A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND TEMPS RUNNING THRU MAINLY THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS. THIS TROF MOVES EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND KEEPS ITS PRECIPITATING MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH.
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND KEEP IT DRY AND COOL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG WESTERN GULF COAST HAS SPREAD A VEIL OF CS UP ACROSS THE MID STATE, BUT THAT'S ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM STEADILY DROPPING OFF THIS EVENING. BY 01Z, TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S IN RURAL AREAS, RANGING TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE LARGER METRO AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM MANITOBA INTO MO WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY TONIGHT WITH THE VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER ABOUT THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.
946 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2015 A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY.
628 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2015 Cold front has cleared the CWA as of 2 pm, but the significantly cooler air lags behind in Wisconsin and northern Iowa. High pressure axis extends southeast from Minnesota into our area, and this will build east across the Great Lakes region tonight. This will result in winds turning more northeast and then east with time, allowing the cooler air mass to settle into the area for the rest of the weekend. Temperatures should dip to around freezing along the I-74 corridor, with mainly mid 30s elsewhere. Canadian high pressure will build across the area in the wake of today's cold front, keeping quiet weather in place but holding high temperatures in the 50s areawide.
THE 5H TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. IN THE MEANTIME THE MOVEMENT OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH INTO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS WILL PUSH IN A DRIER NORTHWESTERN AIR MASS. ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON ONCE AMBIENT TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
1257 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS MINNESOTA. WITH TROF ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA INTO WYOMING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY ON SUNDAY.
MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS VEERED TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE MID LEVELS WITH WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW OBSERVED IN THE UPPER LEVELS. /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015/ UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INTO WEST TEXAS. COLD FRONT NEAR A MCCOMB TO NEW ROADS LINE AT 3 PM. ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER 80S IN MANY AREAS. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THEREFORE AS RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURS FOG IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY OVER INLAND AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.
THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE LOW CEILINGS THAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA.
829 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH INLAND THIS EVENING.
737 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2015 AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND TO START THE WORK WEEK. COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT TO KPIT AS OF THIS HOUR. HAVE UPDATED THE DIURNAL TREND AND LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT PER THE LATEST HI RES MODEL DATA WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL DECREASE WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. OTHERWISE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ANTICYCLONE PERSISTS. SUPPORTING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE BAHAMAS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMERLY PARKED NEAR THE BAJA IS NOW ON THE MOVE. EAST OF THE CYCLONE. A BROAD LEAF OF CIRRUS PAINTS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEEP ANTICYCLONE.
915 PM MDT Sat Mar 21 2015 Weak cold front that moved through much of the forecast area earlier this evening is currently located along a line from Livingston to Lewistown to Malta and making slow eastward progress.
650 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2015 Area radars show convection on the wane, w/WV imagery placing the core of the upper trough near KFST. especially NE zones as the upper trough continues moving NE. /ISSUED 153 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2015/ An upper low was located over Northern Mexico this morning lifting northeast across the area this afternoon. Behind this low will have weak ridging aloft resulting in mild wx through most of the week.
THIN BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAS BEEN MOVING EAST OUT OF MX THIS EVENING INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 73 /ISSUED 636 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015/ A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE PREVENTING THE LIGHT RAIN FROM MOVING ANY FURTHER NORTH AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS GRADUALLY LOWER SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER. AS THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATE DUE TO THE RAIN CLOUDS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD CIRRUS HAVE SPREAD DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM A SOUTHERN PLAINS MID/UPPER TROUGH.
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AND SOME SNOW POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AM MORE COMFORTABLE WITH LESS FREEZING RAIN AND MORE RAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WARM AIR ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE OVER COOLER SURFACE AIR ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT. THIS COULD CREATE SOME FREEZING PRECIPITATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER EASTERN MONTANA UP INTO SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA WHILE DEEP LOW SPINS NEAR JAMES BAY BRINGING NORTHWEST FLOW TO OUR AREA. SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH ITS WAY OVER THE RIDGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE SLEET OF FREEZING RAIN MAINLY OVER THE FAR WEST SO HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF THAT. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM STILL LOOK TO BE THE HIGHEST MAINLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST.
731 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2015 A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY.
1117 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL GIVE WAY AS A COLD FRONT MAKES PASSAGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALSO AT PLAY WILL BE A DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROF MOVING INTO THE MS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT- TMRW. THE NET EFFECT WILL BE A SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL NICE DAY TMRW WITH JUST A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND TEMPS RUNNING THRU MAINLY THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS. THIS TROF MOVES EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND KEEPS ITS PRECIPITATING MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND RAP UPPER AIR FORECAST LOOPS ARE SHOWING THAT THE HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WEST WIND AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT A CONTAINED LIGHT WLY WIND REGIME WITH SUITABLE LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO HELP PRODUCE ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWERS. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EWD FROM THE WRN GULF COAST AND LWR MS VLY ACROSS THE SERN CONUS/FL BY MON AFTERNOON.
TEMPS ALOFT THROUGH THE NIGHT REMAIN FAIRLY MILD AND THUS IF ANY PCPN MATERIALIZES IT SHOULD BE OF THE LIQUID/FREEZING FORM. THE SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OFF THE PACIFIC AFFECTING OUR CWA.
/ISSUED 251 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2015/ A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NORTH FLORIDA WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ON SUNDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, HOWEVER IT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO ERODE AND ALLOW FOR A MORE ZONAL FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER IN THE DAY.
/ISSUED 317 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015/ AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DETECTS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW NEAR EL PASO LIFTING NE. SLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PUMP UP THE THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS OUR REGION.
/ISSUED 345 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2015/ (Tonight and Sunday) As of mid afternoon, the upper low was located near Fort Stockton and will lift northeast across the area this evening. Carrying highest POPs across central and northern counties this evening and across northern counties after midnight, where models show some wrap around precipitation developing on the back side of the upper low. Pleasant weather returns to the area on Sunday, with dry and warmer weather expected. Mostly cloudy skies in the morning will give way to mostly sunny skies by afternoon with highs in the lower and middle 70s. 24 (Sunday Night through Saturday) Winds aloft over the forecast area will remain essentially zonal into mid-week in the wake of the departing upper trough with dry conditions prevailing.
628 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015 THE SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OFF THE PACIFIC AFFECTING OUR CWA.
Cold front has cleared the CWA as of 2 pm, but the significantly cooler air lags behind in Wisconsin and northern Iowa. High pressure axis extends southeast from Minnesota into our area, and this will build east across the Great Lakes region tonight. This will result in winds turning more northeast and then east with time, allowing the cooler air mass to settle into the area for the rest of the weekend. Temperatures should dip to around freezing along the I-74 corridor, with mainly mid 30s elsewhere. Canadian high pressure will build across the area in the wake of today's cold front, keeping quiet weather in place but holding high temperatures in the 50s areawide.
1045 PM MDT Sat Mar 21 2015 Weak cold front that moved through much of the forecast area earlier this evening is currently located along a line from Livingston to Lewistown to Malta and making slow eastward progress.
1248 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY.
ALSO DROPPED MENTION OF THUNDER AND ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND RAINFALL DRIFTING EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER IN N TX/S OK AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO EJECT NEWRD INTO CNTRL TX. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRENDING COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED SO HAVE ALSO LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST A BIT.
/ISSUED 650 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2015/ Area radars show convection on the wane, w/WV imagery placing the core of the upper trough near KFST. especially NE zones as the upper trough continues moving NE. /ISSUED 153 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2015/ An upper low was located over Northern Mexico this morning lifting northeast across the area this afternoon. Behind this low will have weak ridging aloft resulting in mild wx through most of the week.
AS WELL AS SOME WEAK PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY TRAVERSING THE AREA FROM W TO E. COULD SEE THE LOWER VSBYS BECOME PREVAILING AT SOME OF OUR TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE RAIN WILL END AND CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
WITH AN OLD QUASI- STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST FROM THE LOW ACROSS COASTAL LOUISIANA AND JUST SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LOW. /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015/ MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE UPPER TX COAST WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD TO THE SWRN LA COASTLINE AND SERN LA. ALTHOUGH BEST POPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT TOWARD THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE LOW/BOUNDARY DRIFT INLAND TONIGHT.
ALSO DROPPED MENTION OF THUNDER AND ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND RAINFALL DRIFTING EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER IN N TX/S OK AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO EJECT NEWRD INTO CNTRL TX. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRENDING COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED SO HAVE ALSO LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST A BIT. WARM FRONT REMAINS STALLED JUST NORTH OF COAST. SOME CLEARING OF THE MARATHON CLOUDINESS EXPECTED AS THIS UPPER LOW EXITS EASTWARD.
500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER FRI NIGHT AS A RESULT.
/ISSUED 1008 AM CST THU FEB 5 2015/ SKIES ARE SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DROPPING RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE DENSE ARCTIC AIRMASS SINKS SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S IN NORTHEAST AR/MO BOOTHEEL/NORTH TN. WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST AS A LOBE OF THIS WARMER AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
Models also continue to support freezing rain so have opted to continue the Freezing Rain Advisory until the afternoon package issuance. I have made some tweaks to locations for freezing rain based on the top-down method and using the latest model runs. Am also not confident about whether or not warm air will push out the freezing area in the northeast, but at this time I have not made any changes to forecast high temperatures. A chance of freezing rain is forecast across portions of the Hi-line, including KHVR.
158 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015 LOW PRESSURE TRACKS AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST.
316 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS TO START THE EVENING SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. ECE TEMPS COOLER AND MORE REASONABLE. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER ECE IDEA WHICH REQUIRED LOWERING CURRENT MINS BY A FEW DEGREES. MOS TEMPS LIKELY A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM BUT STILL SHOULD SEE TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
128 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
359 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING AND WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE SUNNY SKIES, A COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HELD AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 30S ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SFC WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD.
TEMPS WILL BE SPLIT BY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH READINGS IN THE NORTH IN THE LOW TEENS AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT STAYING IN THE 20S.
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. A BRIEF WARM UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. AIRMASS MODERATES RATHER QUICKLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
240 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS EAST ACROSS THE AREA FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A STRONGER RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT AS RIDGES REMAIN A BIT MIXED OVERNIGHT.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY COOLER VALLEYS IN THE NORTH COULD SEE UPPER TEENS.
123 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE (1036 MB) WAS CENTERED OVER STL AT 18Z WITH A CONTINUED N-NELY COLD ADVECTIVE FLOW INTO THE TN VALLEY.
/ISSUED 720 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015/ LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED ACROSS EXTREME NW GA. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS WIDESPREAD PRECIP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN GA. THE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN GA WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES EASTWARD INTO FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW.
Models also continue to support freezing rain so have opted to continue the Freezing Rain Advisory until the afternoon package issuance. I have made some tweaks to locations for freezing rain based on the top-down method and using the latest model runs. Am also not confident about whether or not warm air will push out the freezing area in the northeast, but at this time I have not made any changes to forecast high temperatures. Rain/snow/freezing rain will affect northcentral Montana this afternoon.
AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE REMAINED STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP OVERNIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE QUITE PLEASANT DUE TO THE RIDGING PATTERN THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. FRIDAY WILL STILL BE COOL WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S DUE TO WEAK CAA UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
407 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
1211 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXITING LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH REPRESENTING 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF -21 TO -23C. DRY MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WORKING ACROSS LOW LEVEL RIDGING SUSTAINING A STABLE PROFILE AND ENSURING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH ABOVE THE LOWER TEENS. LOWS ARRIVING IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS. THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL KEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. THE WAVELENGTH OF THE RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO BROADEN ENOUGH TO PUSH THE JET STREAM AND MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE LOWER LEVEL COLUMN WILL BE VOID OF MOISTURE.