Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SO FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE ALSO BECOMING AN EVOLVING PROBLEM. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. AS THE LOW REACHES THE UPR MS VALLEY ~12Z. SC KS WAS BEING DRY-SLOTTED AT ISSUANCE BUT THE LOW MOVES NE WRAP-ARND RAINS WL SPREAD E ACRS THESE AREAS & LKLY RESULT IN IFR VSBYS.
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FCST AREA FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AND THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE HELPING TO KEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO A MINIMUM. GOOD MIXING TODAY HAS ALLOWED SOME OF THIS HIGH MOMENTUM AIR TO WORK DOWN TO THE SFC. A LITTLE COOLER ON MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN AREAS WILL MOVE OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR WHILE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
FAIRLY DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLC OVERNIGHT-MON AS A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST PUSHES A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE BY EARLY MON MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVED SOUTH OF OUR AREA CURRENTLY IN EASTERN KANSAS WHILE THE UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINNING TO MOVE ONTO THE OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OUR UPCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH ROUGHLY THE SAME LOCATION AND MOVEMENT. UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE QUESTIONS ON WHERE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GOING TO COME FROM WITH THIS SYSTEM. GFS AND ECMWF DOES DEVELOP EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THAT PULLS THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WEST INTO WYOMING.
955 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
/ISSUED 355 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015/ UPPER LOW OVER DRIFTING WSW OVER EASTERN CUBA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH TIME.
/ISSUED 253 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015/ A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI TO MONROE LOUISIANA. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA DUE TO WRAP AROUND FROM THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS MISSOURI NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES.
GUSTY COLD FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MID WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK. FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE. UPDATED FORECAST TO LOWER TEMPERATURES IN A FEW OF THE COOLER VALLEYS THAT REMAIN DECOUPLED. COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LARGE SFC/MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CONTINUES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ALL THE WAY UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
INCREASING PLUME OF MOISTURE IS SPREADING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS WARM FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO MIDWEST. TIME CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AFTER MON 18Z WHEN WEAK RIDGING FORMS ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. AND CONFIDENCE WAS NOW HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. THESE DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH THE RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.
339 AM PDT Mon May 25 2015 Warmer temperatures with afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms expected through the middle of the week, mainly over the mountains. High pressure dries things out by late in the week.
LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING ALOFT OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE THAT WAS CENTERED A LITTLE TO OUR NORTH. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUING AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES OFFSHORE.
AFTER A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
544 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING AND ENDS THE DAY ALONG THE EAST COAST. ANY SHOWERS OVER THE NW WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON TO DEVELOP AS A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ZIPS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS NW PA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST 30 POPS IN THE FAR NW. BELIEVE THAT THE FORCING IS GOING TO BE WEAK AND THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FAIRLY STRONG TO ALLOW MORE THAN JUST ISOLD SHRA.
622 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. FORECAST FOR TODAY /AND TONIGHT/ WILL BE ABOUT ONGOING WAA THRU THE ATMOSPHERE AS WARM HUMID AIR OVERRIDES THE NOT QUITE AS WARM AND DEFINITELY DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER PART OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
THE H5 RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE CWA WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST PUTTING THE CWA IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW. MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY OVER MOST AREAS. WARM FRONT STARTING TO LIFT NORTH MONDAY WILL HAVE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CONTINUING TUESDAY.
INCREASING PLUME OF MOISTURE IS SPREADING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS WARM FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO MIDWEST. TIME CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AFTER MON 18Z WEAK RIDGING FORMS ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. AND CONFIDENCE WAS NOW HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. THESE DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH THE RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.
HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE NE THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION WITH EASTERLY STEERING FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION SLOWLY WEAKENS WITH TIME AND THE EASTERLY STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS WEEK AROUND 15 KNOTS.
At 19 UTC, a large-scale upper trough was moving northeast out of the southern plains. Both the 12 UTC NAM/GFS bring an EML into northeast KS in the wake of the ejecting upper trough.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER WASHINGTON TODAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MAINLY INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS. TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
/ISSUED 1037 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/ 06Z TAF CYCLE UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN WEST OF THE PANHANDLES THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.
1031 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015 Low pressure moves into the Inland Northwest through mid-week, providing scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and smaller chances in the morning and night. Satellite imagery this evening indicates a closed low over southern BC slowly moving south. JW 06Z TAFS: A closed low in southern BC will drop south into northern WA through Monday. This will result in showers and scattered thunderstorms especially for the northern mountains and Idaho Panhandle given the cold pool aloft with the low over the area. The highest coverage of thunderstorm activity will be during peak heating (20z Mon-02z Tue) but isolated nocturnal thunderstorms will continue overnight into Monday morning with mid level instability in place over Northeast Washington and North Idaho.
419 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF LIFTS NORTH. NCEP MODELS AND THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORT WAVE TROF EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA.
1204 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015 TODAY HAS BEEN ABOUT AS MUCH OF A WASHOUT AS YOU CAN GET AS AN ISENTROPICALLY FORCED RAIN SHIELD LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT THIS AFTERNOON WAS APPROACHING I-80 DOWN IN IOWA. CAMS ALSO SHOW THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FIRING OFF STORMS IN WRN IOWA MONDAY AFTERNOON. DID DROP HIGHS DOWN TO JUST THE LOW 60S THERE. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 12Z AND 18Z GUIDANCE THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TOMORROW WITH WEAK TO MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ARRIVING IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 21Z- 00Z.
THE FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM NE KS INTO NW MO. IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MID LEVEL TROF AND WITH 925MB TEMPS IN THE 17-20C RANGE. THE AFTERNOON SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY WITH THE PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING TONIGHT AS ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
339 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015 LOW PRESSURE CENTER STILL WELL OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. AND A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE IL/WI BORDER THIS MORNING. GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH BY MID DAY AND SLOWLY BACKING OFF AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. REGION DOMINATED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER TROF IN THE SW THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE IN PLACE IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH BY THE TIME PEAK HEATING OCCURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 70S/MID 80S WEST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT WITH EARLIER DAY CLEARING AND AS WARMER H85 TEMPERATURES ADVECT IN. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY DIG INTO IDAHO BY MID WEEK AS IT PHASES WITH A LOW APPROACHING THE SOCAL COAST.
AN UPPER LOW SITUATED IN SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTH- SOUTHEAST. FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE W-SW AHEAD OF THE LOW. MODELS AGREE THAT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTY AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. CONVECTION THAT FORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE SNAKE PLAIN WILL MOVE IN THE UPPER TREASURE AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS WILL REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SE OREGON WHILE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO.
347 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION PUTS THE FORECAST AREA IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AS A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES MOVE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NEAR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHICH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ESE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 90 WITH THE SEA BREEZE HOLDING COASTAL AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
415 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015 THE LOW PRESSURE THAT PLAGUED US ALL WEEKEND WILL BE OVER WRN NEBRASKA BY DAYBREAK BUT IT'S NOT DONE WITH US YET. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR AREA WILL BE A CLOSED LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER WA STATE AND WON'T MOVE TOO MUCH OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THE JET STREAM HAS DROPPED WELL TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA TUESDAY BUT WEAK PIECES OF ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM THE CLOSED LOW KEEPING UNSETTLED WX IN THE PICTURE WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST.
353 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. FORECAST FOR TODAY /AND TONIGHT/ WILL BE ABOUT ONGOING WAA THRU THE ATMOSPHERE AS WARM HUMID AIR OVERRIDES THE NOT QUITE AS WARM AND DEFINTELY DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER PART OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING ESTABLISHES ITSELF ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS ADVECTING IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS MAY INTERRUPT THIS PROCESS AT LEAST TO SOME EXTENT OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
515 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015 THE ONSLAUGHT OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE COMING PERIOD AS THE AREA REMAINS ANCHORED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WRN TX AND THE SRN PLAINS. MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SWRLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST AND A LOW MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES KEEPING UP A STEADY DELIVERY OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS.
AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THIS LOW WILL REACH NORTHEAST OREGON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW'S POSITION OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP THE ONSHORE FLOW GOING OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL OREGON THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARDS AND INTO NORTHEAST OREGON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT, EXPECT THE AIR MASS OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST OREGON TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
1257 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015 THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BE ON THE MOVE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL TRANSLATE SOUTH OF THE MAIN LOW AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THRU MONDAY. THE NAM TRIES TO DEVELOP STORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND CANNOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THIS EITHER. THE FORECAST TURNS MORE INTERESTING ON MONDAY WITH BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW REACHES NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (593DM) WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST U. COAST AND OVER FLORIDA TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U. AT THE SURFACE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A DEEP LAYERED EASTERLY WIND FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND AREAS. WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S EACH AFTERNOON.
415 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO NEBRASKA BY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST IN CLOSER VICINITY TO THE UPPER LOW. STARTS OUT WARMER AND DRIER ON TUESDAY AFTER A WET AND COOLISH HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN. TEMPS ALSO ON THE RISE WITH WARMING ALOFT WITH THE RIDGE PASSING OVERHEAD.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO TRINITY COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY IN TRINITY COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF THAT IS IN THE LOWEST PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE BELOW ABOUT 10KFT. A FEW STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR THE PERIPHERY OF TRINITY COUNTY. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LINGER INTO WED AS THE UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE PAC NW EXITS TO THE EAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD STABILIZE AND DRY OUT ON THU AS A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA. WITH SOME SITES HITTING THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST LOOSENS ITS GRIP OVER THE APPALACHIANS. WILL CONTINUE WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS RIPPLES OF ENERGY ARE SENT AROUND THE RIDGE AND PASS NEAR OUR AREA. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 80 67 83 67 / 60 50 70 60 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 84 66 82 64 / 50 50 60 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 83 67 82 66 / 50 40 70 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 86 64 83 63 / 20 20 50 60.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI KEEPS A STRONG GRADIENT IN PLACE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN WARMER TEMPS AND MORE MIXING THAN INDICATED BY MOST OF THE MODELS. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW LEVELS HAVE WARMED AND MOISTENED. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF ANY ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE OVER SE MISSOURI LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. APPROACHING THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AT 12Z TUESDAY.
339 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015 WITHIN THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER WYOMING/SD/NEBRASKA REGION AREA SEVERAL SMALLER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES.
629 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U. THE RIDGE WILL BRING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEK WITH MID SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES.
PASSING WARM FRONT TODAY WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. WITH RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO PUSH OFF OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
249 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL DRIVE THE PATTERN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST.
/ISSUED 515 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/ THE ONSLAUGHT OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE COMING PERIOD AS THE AREA REMAINS ANCHORED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WRN TX AND THE SRN PLAINS. MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SWRLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST AND A LOW MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES KEEPING UP A STEADY DELIVERY OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS.
1201 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 920 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/ AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER MUCH OF THE SERN US WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. IN BETWEEN WAS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE MS RVR VALLEY THAT WAS ROTATING ARND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LOW. UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS MS AS AN UPPER RIDGE.
445 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 AN UPPER-LEVEL COMPOSITE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A DEEP LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WITH RIDGING EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CARIBBEAN.
227 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. AND UPPER RIDGE. SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE TODAY WILL INTERACT WITH THE WARM. DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN AS 5H RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
414 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS TAKES CONTROL AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. AND UPPER RIDGE. SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE TODAY WILL INTERACT WITH THE WARM. FCST AREA REMAINS IN DEEP LAYER S TO SW FLOW BETWEEN A TENACIOUS ATLANTIC RIDGE. AND TROUGHINESS TO THE W. ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN THEY CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE HIGHER BOUYANCY OF 1000-1500 J / KG OF CAPE. HEIGHT RISES IN RESPONSE TO THE MAIN S/W TROUGH LIFTING OUT MAY ACTUAL LEAD TO DECREASING COVERAGE OF CONVECTION DURING THE DAY. LATEST MODELS SHOW GREAT LAKES TROUGH DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO 5H RIDGE. WITH A DIRTY RIDGE. BECOMING A REALLY DIRTY RIDGE.
422 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015 THE MAIN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE COLORADO/WYOMING COMMON BORDER.
IN THE WARM HUMID AIR MASS BEHIND A WARM FRONT THAT CROSSED EARLIER TODAY. SOME OF THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR WILL BE TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 30-35MPH.
THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF THE NEW YORK THRUWAY THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA.
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. TODAY AND TUESDAY A WEAK TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE US WARMER INLAND DAYS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING INLAND TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING A LITTLE COOLING ALOFT AND RESULT IN A BIT MORE INSTABILITY ON THE EAST SIDE AND CALIFORNIA.
446 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015 SURFACE MAP REVEALED A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM IOWA TO WEST KANSAS TO WEST TEXAS. SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND RIDGE OVER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. THE WAVE DAMPENS A BIT AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE RIDGE.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY HELP INDUCE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY WEST OF THE RIDGES THIS EVENING. WITH RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO PUSH OFF OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
/ISSUED 233 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015/ DESPITE THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST FOR THIS COMING WEEK THE H5 TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY AROUND -8C FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE WEEK SINCE THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE FRACTION OF THE NAEFS MEMBERS FORECASTING EXTREME VALUES RANGES BETWEEN 97% AND 100% BETWEEN MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE CORE OF THE H5 HIGH PRESSURE. THIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE CENTER.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN WILL FURTHER/AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. EXPECTED 8 TO 11 METER RISE IN LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS A CATEGORY(~3 DEGREES)WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
616 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS TAKES CONTROL AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. AND UPPER RIDGE. SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE TODAY WILL INTERACT WITH THE WARM. FCST AREA REMAINS IN DEEP LAYER S TO SW FLOW BETWEEN A TENACIOUS ATLANTIC RIDGE. AND TROUGHINESS TO THE W. ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN THEY CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE HIGHER BOUYANCY OF 1000-1500 J / KG OF CAPE. HEIGHT RISES IN RESPONSE TO THE MAIN S/W TROUGH LIFTING OUT MAY ACTUAL LEAD TO DECREASING COVERAGE OF CONVECTION DURING THE DAY. LATEST MODELS SHOW GREAT LAKES TROUGH DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO 5H RIDGE. WITH A DIRTY RIDGE. BECOMING A REALLY DIRTY RIDGE.
457 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING AND ENDS THE DAY ALONG THE EAST COAST. ANY SHOWERS OVER THE NW WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON TO DEVELOP AS A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ZIPS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS NW PA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST 30 POPS IN THE FAR NW. BELIEVE THAT THE FORCING IS GOING TO BE WEAK AND THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FAIRLY STRONG TO ALLOW MORE THAN JUST ISOLD SHRA.
304 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 NAM HAS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW AND TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ERN U. LIGHT WINDS INCREASE TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
PASSING WARM FRONT TODAY WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
SHOULD SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST AS DRIER AIR GETS INTO THE AREA AND PROBABLY WILL PRODUCE A CAP. WARMER AND HUMID ON TUESDAY.
324 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016 Damp, drizzly conditions have developed over the area during the past several hours with temperatures in the low/mid 50s. Split flow aloft has resulted in a cut off low centered over Mexico, with a weak, positively trough slowly edging east across the northern tier of states. Eventually, by later this afternoon, the trough over the northern tier of states will press far enough east to shunt drier air into the area and shift light rain to the southeast. The latest round of model output continues to lift the upper low over Mexico northward with time. Have maintained a slight chance mention of thunder as the upper low moves over the area this weekend.
THERE WAS SOME CONCERN ABOUT FREEZING DRIZZLE. SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE EAST COOLER WHILE CENTRAL AND NORTH- CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF SUNSHINE.
WARMER BASED ON THICKNESS TRENDS AND 700 MB TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. THE LOW AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN DRY.