Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The trough is bringing light rain to portions of the mid Rio Grande Valley and will continue to traverse the region through the afternoon hours. As the trough moves off to the northeast and low/mid level moisture decreases early this evening, showers will also decrease.
The cloud cover should keep temperatures several degrees cooler than today's values and along with the increased low level moisture, should keep the fire danger lower than we're seeing today.
By tomorrow evening/night, a cold front will pass by the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front.
1157 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2018 Warm front is still lingering to the southwest along the mid Mississippi River Valley this morning, but winds out ahead of it are also out of the south/southeast. High pressure will continue to drift eastward into the Appalachians, allowing a southerly return flow to bring warmer conditions to central Illinois today. Thanks to continued southerly flow, lows tonight will be warmer than in recent nights. with readings remaining in the lower to middle 30s. As a cold front begins to approach from the northwest on Friday, the pressure gradient will tighten across the Midwest.
After highs ranging from the lower-mid 60s later this afternoon, temperatures will drop quickly again tonight under generally clear skies and light to calm winds.
352 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2018 Winds are gradually shifting around to the southeast this afternoon as the area of high pressure that's brought a couple days of near perfect weather continues to depart to the east. We've also seen an increase in high cloud cover this afternoon especially across southeast Texas into southwest and central Louisiana courtesy of tropical air wrapping around mid level ridging.
Surface wise, a massive and strengthening area of high pressure (1035 mb) is covering the entire eastern United States, with a ridge extending down the Sunshine State. With the low level trough which lingered just offshore of the Middle and Upper Keys overnight being shoved southeastward and away from the island chain, low level, below 850 mb has filtered into our region.
131 PM MST Thu Jan 25 2018 The forecast area will be under southwest flow aloft tonight ahead of an upper trough and associated cold front that move through Friday.
Following lows mainly in the lower and middle 20s, temperatures by 2 pm had rebounded into the 50s. Lows should be mainly in the lower to middle 30s, under clear skies. However, winds and a developing thermal ridge ahead of an approaching cold front will actually allow temperatures to rise a few degrees during the late night hours.
The region will remain under west-southwesterly flow aloft through Friday, between an upper trough to the west and the upper ridge to the east. The warm and continued dry conditions may also lend to elevated fire weather conditions Friday afternoon, mainly across the higher elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains where winds will be a bit stronger.
Rain chances will remain high on Sat with the passage of the cold front as well. 6 inch values are on the highest end of the climatological norms for PWs for this time of year. The building upper ridge in the wake of the front (and its associated upper trof) should help to clear things out quickly Sat night into Sun morning. High pressure over E TX will weaken and slide east today with pressures falling on the Lower and Coastal Bend which should turn winds easterly.
407 PM EST Thu Jan 25 2018 Clear to partly cloudy skies will continue this evening before going clear overnight as high pressure crests over the North Country. As the high shifts offshore, warmer temperatures are expected to develop Friday through the weekend, along with the chance for valley rain and mountain snow showers. We're looking at a whole lot of big bubble no trouble for the next 24 hours as high pressure dominates the region. With high pressure cresting aloft this evening expect a chilly one with temps falling below zero in most locations. On Friday the high drifts off to the easy and we start our return to warmer weather. Southwesterly flow builds in leading to temps warming in to the low to mid 20s under partly cloudy skies.
313 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2018 High pressure ridge has slipped off to the east and south/southwesterly flow at the surface continued the warm air advection into the region. Temperatures climbing into the 50s ahead of a warm front to the southwest with plenty of sunshine across Illinois today. Tonight, the southerly flow continues and temperatures will remain above freezing overnight, even though the skies will be mostly clear. Concern for the conditions to the southwest today, with highs reaching into the lower 60s, as dwpts fell into the 20s.
359 PM EST Thu Jan 25 2018 Current conditions across the OH Valley features strong high pressure in place with clear skies over eastern Kentucky. A decent ridge to valley temperature difference will be in place, especially with dew points in the lower 20s to upper teens. Heading into the day on Friday, with the high in the south shifting east, this will allow for southerly flow to set up. Heading into Friday night, winds will finally shift to the southwest and increase with increasing gradient as a cold front develops along the MS River Valley and pushes eastward.
The pattern will begin to shift as a mid-level trough sinks through the midwest United States on Friday.
339 PM EST Thu Jan 25 2018 High pressure over the region will move off to the east tomorrow.
314 PM EST Thu Jan 25 2018 Canadian high pressure builds in through tonight and then offshore on Friday.
219 PM EST Thu Jan 25 2018 Dry high pressure is in control to start the short term period. High clouds start to increase later tonight then the lower level moisture and clouds increase Friday night.
Expect cloud cover to develop in the high and mid levels first and build down as the day goes on. Upper air analysis showed a weak low over west Texas and ridge axis from central Texas to the Northern Plains and stronger trough was approaching the Northwest Pacific. Upper level low over west Texas will become a short wave and track northeast to Missouri Thursday night. This short wave is expected to track to the Great Lakes on Friday but leave deep moisture across the Lower Mississippi Valley, especially along the coast.
Upper ridging should move across the Tennessee Valley tonight, with a WNW upper flow becoming WSW on Friday. With light winds and mostly clear skies, another chilly night is expected, with lows falling into the lower 30s. An easterly flow across the western Atlantic and Gulf (north of an old cold front) will produce moisture pooling over the western Gulf during Friday and especially Friday night.
Think that best chances will again be freezing rain/drizzle, and any amounts will be very light. Lowered the highs a bit to around 30 in the north and central counties and upper 30s in the southwest, not as mild as we had going but still warmer than much of the week and above average. Some breezy winds are expected with the trough, especially in eastern North Dakota.
304 PM EST Thu Jan 25 2018 High pressure will allow for dry conditions through the day on Friday.
243 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2018 The h500 ridge over the northern plains will translate east tonight with a trough over western Canada and the northern Rockies moving to the northern plains by Friday. As the upper trough approaches the GFS/ECMWF continue to be dry late tonight and Friday.
Mostly cloudy to overcast skies will result in much warmer temperatures tonight across South Texas. Pops were held around 30 percent during the day, and then slightly increased Friday evening/night over the Victoria Crossroads and northern Coastal Bend as trough moves to the northeast.
Friday morning, a Pacific cold front will race from west to east and surface winds will increase again. This storm system will remain north of New Mexico, dragging a dry cold front through the state Friday. Cooler temperatures along with brisk west and northwest winds will move in behind the front on Friday.
1249 PM EST Thu Jan 25 2018 High pressure will build into the region and provide dry conditions through Friday night.
On Friday, 925 mb temperatures will warm into the 3 to 6C range ahead of an approaching cold front. On Friday night, there appears to be enough saturation along and ahead of the cold front for maybe a few rain showers or sprinkles in southwest and central Wisconsin.
South to southeast winds will keep temperatures warmer than last night with lows in the 30s. Models indicate low clouds arriving in the afternoon out of southern TX, ahead of a cold front that will be pushing into Iowa.
Temperatures will be up and down as a series of upper troughs and Arctic highs move through the region and drag cold air down from Canada.
An upper level trough will move across the southern Texas panhandle tonight. Cloud cover will play a role in who sees warmer or cooler temperatures tomorrow. Current forecast keeps the clouds around much of the day along the I-10 corridor, and temperatures will be in the low 60s.
The upper high pressure ridge has also moved into the region from the west and helped warm temperatures today.
Lower valleys have or are seeing snow with this feature though air temperatures have remained above freezing for sites below 4k feet. North-south oriented cold front, currently stretching from KTWF to KSUN, will exit off to the east this afternoon.
A 30 to 35 degree diurnal swing will easily occur, yielding aftn highs in the lower to middle 60s.
Expect another hot day across the region, with afternoon highs soaring into the 90s once again region wide as high pressure remains in control.
Warmer Thursday through the weekend under high pressure aloft and weak offshore flow.
An upper level low pressure area was located over southern Arizona early this afternoon with a weather disturbance ahead of it initiating some thunderstorms across the far west and east-southeast parts of the forecast area. Around and shortly before sunrise wraparound moisture/precipitation increases behind the departing wound up low pressure center. The first of two upper lows continues northeast of the region Wednesday night reaching the Great Lakes. Dry conditions return to much of the area with upper ridging building in behind the low. Late Wednesday into Thursday, a second and stronger upper low tracks from the northern desert southwest towards the High Plains, reintroducing showers and thunderstorms to the forecast.
Good mid level theta-e ridge by mid morning may allow for some showers (too capped for thunder) so did include VCSH at KCRP and KVCT mainly for the morning and early afternoon.
Narrow mid level ridge will strengthen as it expands northeastward from the GOMEX across central Florida to north of the northern Bahamas.
Overall, high pressure is building in from the southwest, so clouds will be on the decrease today and temperatures will rebound.
Winds are expected to remain a bit too high for any fog, so have maintained the lower CIGS but not reduced VSBYS during roughly the 10-16z period. /issued 309 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017/ High pressure settled over the southeastern U. A frontal zone emanating from the Plains States will be slow to approach the area due to continual strengthening of the trough from a series of short waves sinking into the Lower Plains.
An upper level low over NM is expected to move northeastward tonight acrs the far sern corner of CO and then into northwest KS by 12Z Wed. By late night, the mtns and high valleys should have little chance for pcpn, while wrap-around pcpn on the back side of the upper low, is expected to be found over the eastern plains. Wed afternoon that upper low will continue moving east and into wrn IA by evening. At the same time, a new upper level low is expected to move into southern ID. Ahead of the ID upper low, mstr and pcpn chance are expected to increase again along the Continental Divide. A cold front will cross KPUB and KCOS tomorrow evening.
136 AM EDT Wed May 17 2017 Strengthening high pressure, to the east, is forecast to keep the wind out of the east while strengthening them to around 15 to 20 kts. This afternoon through tonight: Latest water vapor imagery shows a large dome of high pressure ridge dominating the eastern CONUS. Wednesday through this weekend: As high pressure establishes itself near Bermuda by mid to late week, easterly winds will become breezy, especially along the immediate Atlantic coast.
/Issued 737 PM EDT Tue May 16 2017/ As a result of strong low pressure moving northeast out of the central plains. upper ridge over the forecast area will gradually slide toward the Atlantic coast during the short term. Models have been slowing the trailing cold front and it looks like it will begin to affect our area just beyond the short term period. 17 Forecast looks on track with mid-level ridging across the area through the end of the work-week.
Dry and Cooler. As a cold front continues to move east across Texas today, skies will clear across West Central Texas. With some drier and cooler air moving into West Central Texas from the west, under sunny to mostly sunny skies, afternoon highs will be cooler than previous days, mainly in the upper 80s.
Satellite imagery was showing rather widespread MVFR CIGS over the lower/mid valley with considerable breaks in the clouds over the far west. /issued 218 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night): Tranquil weather conditions are anticipated through the short term forecast period as Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley remains on the northern and northwestern periphery of 500 mb high pressure.
329 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017 Deep layer subsidence was well established early this morning south of a vigorous trough now lifting across western Kansas. Following transient upper ridging today, cyclonic SW flow will resume in earnest on Thursday south of another upper low slowing and becoming vertically stacked over CO. As a vort lobe pivots out of the base of the upper low Thu night, a modified Pacific front will be directed across the South Plains, before stalling in response to another vort lobe approaching from NM.
525 AM EDT Wed May 17 2017 A large subtropical upper ridge over the southeastern United States and associated Bermuda high at the surface will dominate our weather for much of the time during the upcoming 7 days. Initially, the ridge will bring unseasonably warm air into the region today through Thursday with near record highs possible in some locations.
400 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017 An upper level low can be seen on water vapor satellite imagery over far southeastern Colorado/far southwestern Kansas. This system is moving northeast while the next upper level low over eastern Oregon is digging southeastward. The first upper level low will continue to move northeast across Kansas and into Iowa by tonight. Subsidence in the wake of the upper level low should result in rather quiet weather this afternoon and tonight.
After sunset this evening the best chances of showers/thunderstorms will shift into eastern/se IL, and linger over southeast IL on Thu where SPC day2 has marginal risk of severe storms as cold front pushes south into IL river valley late THu afternoon. Highs Thu in the low to mid 80s, except upper 70s by Galesburg.
137 AM EDT Wed May 17 2017 Strong southwest flow will bring near record high temperatures to the region Thursday as a ridge envelops the region. A cold front will drop across the area Thursday night.
447 AM EDT Wed May 17 2017 High pressure centered just off the southeast Atlantic Coast will provide mainly fair dry weather through Thursday.
With fairly respectable theta-e ridge over the area this morning, am going to keep the 20/30 POPs this morning (highest north), then diminish them in the afternoon as expect better chances for rain will only exist NE of area. Some of the models are going rather cool over the NE areas today (keying too much on convection I believe) so am going to go warmer than that. No showers in the forecast at this time, as the better theta-e ridge stays inland through the period, although some showers could approach the coastal areas through mid afternoon.
The active pattern will continue into late week as a secondary upper wave swings around the primary central Rockies cyclone.
412 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017 Exiting upper low will keep light rain possible for the northern Panhandles through the overnight hours, but should dissipate around the morning commute. Low level moisture is forecast to surge northward in response to the approach of this low. A sharp dryline in the vicinity of the eastern Panhandles (mainly off-Caprock counties) as the upper low takes on a negative tilt around midday.
This high pressure continues to sink south Thursday, and despite the associated partial clearing, cold advection means that temperatures will again struggle to reach low 60s Thursday. Guidance lows for some locations are in the 30s, so will continue to watch for the potential for frost though timing means everything as we will also see a low lifting from the south, with isentropic upglide resulting in increased mid/high cloud cover hopefully saving us from dropping too close to the freezing mark.
130 AM EDT Wed May 17 2017 High pressure today with increasing temperatures. A high pressure system will provide dry weather and much warmer temperatures today. With the ground not fully dried out from previous rains, think the MOS guidance highs in the lowlands are once again too high. Will go with the cooler MOS numbers in the mountains and below MOS in the lowlands. Strong ridging should keep the area dry through Thursday.
Surface wise, an expanding and strengthening western Atlantic ridge is aligned into the southeast United States and the Sunshine State. A massive and strengthening western Atlantic ridge will remain anchored across the southeast United States and the Florida peninsula. With the position of the ridge and ample low level moisture, any easterly migratory feature will enhance shower and possible thunderstorm activity.
216 AM EDT Wed May 17 2017 High pressure will hold dry weather and above normal temperatures across the area through most of the week. Morning lows in the lower to middle 60s still on track. Today: The upper ridge remains across the region, and should still be just about as strong as yesterday. This should allow temperatures to climb back into the lower 90s once again this afternoon. Brief height falls expected Thursday night as an upper trough crossing the Great Lakes region.
Low pressure will exit eastern nebraska this morning to far southeast Minnesota just before midnight. In addition, the low level 850 mb jet of 50 knots associated with the low will nose into the area from the south during the late afternoon. Temperatures will likely be warmest in the east where there should be less clouds, and somewhat warmer temps aloft. Medium Mid level trough lifts off to the northeast of WI.
Models are continuing to show the cold front/dry boundary to push east into the CWA through the morning hours, stalling along the periphery of the Edwards escarpment.
415 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017 Late night sfc analysis shows high pressure centered off the Carolina coast providing for a srly low-level flow over the forecast area. The combo of the high with low pressure over the srn Plains, as well as 30+ knot winds just off the sfc per KLCH VWP, are keeping our winds elevated this morning. Small rain chances spread ewd across the remainder of the forecast area for Thursday as the mid/upper-level ridge gets shoved farther with daytime heating serving as the main initiator for convective development.
1238 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017 Very active weather pattern shaping up from the Lower Missouri Valley in the coming days as upstream satellite trends show two potent upper-level disturbances across the Western U. Moving forward to the daylight hours on Wednesday, latest deterministic guidance continues to highlight a strong synoptic signal for severe storm development along the eastward moving dryline/Pacific cold front by Wednesday afternoon. A few details: 1) Aforementioned upper trough will take on a strong negative- tilt by late morning/early afternoon directly off to our west, suggesting max DPVA and synoptic-scale lift will be centered directly over our region by afternoon. 3) Very strong wind fields will exist aloft, as a midlevel speed max of close to 100 kts rotates into the region along the underbelly of the previously mentioned, negatively-tilted trough.
140 AM EDT Wed May 17 2017 Bermuda high pressure will extend west into the southeastern U. A backdoor cold front will settle south through VA Fri night and into NC on Sat. Min temps will generally be in the mid 60s with lower 60s in the normally cooler locations.
144 AM EDT Wed May 17 2017 High pressure will result in dry and very warm conditions through mid-week.
Slight warming in the lower elevations will allow for the snow to transition back to rain. Southwest Montana and Lemhi County Idaho could continue to see showers as Gulf of Mexico moisture continues to be wrapped around the north side of the low pressure. Temperatures remain cool during the day, and remain well below seasonal averages, but will be 10 or so degrees warmer than Wednesday's temperatures. The Northern Rockies look to be free of any influence of the low by Thursday night.
419 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017 A quiet Wednesday is expected behind a Pacific cold front with breezy westerly downslope flow and plenty of sunshine anticipated.
631 AM EDT Wed May 17 2017 High pressure will maintain dry weather and above normal temperatures through the remainder of the work week. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase by late in the weekend as moisture increases ahead of an approaching cold front. The upper ridge remains across the region, and should still be just about as strong as yesterday. This should allow temperatures to climb back into the lower 90s once again this afternoon.
607 AM EDT Wed May 17 2017 Strong upper level ridge will produce near record high temperatures today. A cold front will drop across the area late Thursday kicking off scattered thunderstorms and ushering in more seasonal conditions.
342 AM EDT Wed May 17 2017 Strong upper level ridge will produce near record high temperatures today. A cold front will drop across the area late Thursday kicking off scattered thunderstorms and ushering in more seasonal conditions.
343 AM EDT Wed May 17 2017 High pressure remains nearly stationary off the Eastern seaboard through Thursday.
In the upper levels ridging remains over the Southeast. Highs will be in the low 90s with lows in the mid to upper 60s.
Have included some slight pops accordingly, though chance increases a bit more for Thursday afternoon as upper ridge weakens its recent subsident hold on the region and we get more exposed to what should be a weakening impulse in the trough energy west of the region. Above normal temps expected to persist both days with many areas close to the 90 mark today and slightly lower Thursday afternoon given aforementioned weakening ridge and some increased moisture to the airmass.
309 AM EDT Wed May 17 2017 High pressure will maintain dry weather and above normal temperatures through the remainder of the work week. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase by late in the weekend as moisture increases ahead of an approaching cold front. Morning lows in the lower to middle 60s still on track. Today: The upper ridge remains across the region, and should still be just about as strong as yesterday. This should allow temperatures to climb back into the lower 90s once again this afternoon.
A more robust warming trend will take place through late week and into the upcoming weekend as high pressure builds along the coast. Look for clearing skies from north to south through the early morning and afternoon as the main mid/upper level trough shifts inland and begins to be replaced by building high pressure over the eastern Pacific. As a result, should experience slightly warmer temperatures this afternoon, especially inland.