Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
DUE TO THE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA UP TO THIS POINT, A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHWARD THROUGH COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS WELL AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS LINGER. SOUTH WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE 50S TONIGHT, EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER WHERE IT WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER. EXPECTED WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OUTFLOW WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM STAYING EVEN WARMER TONIGHT. AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL COLORADO BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A LARGE DRY SLOT INTO WESTERN KANSAS.
922 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
1020 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. WHILE AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF KPIT I-80 REMAIN WARMER WITH SOME SUNSHINE. IF NOT WARMER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO DO SO AS IT CUTS OFF AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MUCH COOLER AIR TODAY WITH NOT QUITE AS MUCH WIND AS YESTERDAY FOR MOST AREAS. MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH FAR LESS WIND EXPECTED. CLEARING AND COLDER TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW EXITING THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.
1058 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015 BECAUSE OF THE LOW CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH.
/ISSUED 432 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/ STORMY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR MONUMENT VALLEY VERY SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
DUE TO THE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA UP TO THIS POINT, A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHWARD THROUGH COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS WELL AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS LINGER. SOUTH WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE 50S TONIGHT, EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER WHERE IT WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER. EXPECTED WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OUTFLOW WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM STAYING EVEN WARMER TONIGHT.
A LARGE UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE LOWER ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STORM POTENTIAL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. THE DECREASING STABILITY FOR TODAY CAN ALSO BE SEEN IN CLOUD INCREASES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MEXICO. THE HIGHER RES MODELS SHOW MORE DISTINCTIONS BETWEEN THE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THOSE FROM A WELL DEFINED COMPLEX FRIDAY.
928 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY. TRAILING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST COAST. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM SOUTHWEST TN. A VERY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT WAS OBSERVED WITH THIS COLD FRONT. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S EAST OF THE FRONT. AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE WEST. WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD. DEVELOPING A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.
856 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 UPDATE LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH FROM THE GULF.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH WILL ALLOW FURTHER DETERIORATION IN CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. PASSAGE OF THE MAIN VORTICITY CENTER ANCHORING THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE BACKGROUND FOR SOME DEGREE OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER MOISTURE PLUME EXISTING JUST UPSTREAM WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOWER HEIGHTS THROUGH DURING THIS TIME. MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS THROUGH TONIGHT. EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TIED TO THE THERMAL TROUGHING WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY WELL INTO THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD. 5 TO 9 C ADVERTISED AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. AND THE DETROIT AREA AND POINTS SOUTH WILL LIKELY SEE MAXES IN THE LOWER 70S.
752 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. IF NOT WARMER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
DUE TO WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM UPPER LOW OVER FOUR CORNERS REGION. MSTR TO STREAM NWD IN CONTINUED DEEP S-SW FLOW AS UPPER LOW SPINNING IN FOUR CORNER REGION OVER WESTERN STATES. WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY OVERTAKE THE REGION AND ALLOW FOR SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL AID IN THE INCREASING LIFT LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROF.
1244 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT.
Otherwise, a large upper level low continues to move into the four corners area while becoming cut off from the main northern jet stream across southern Canada.
A COLD UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TODAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE COLD UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR LAKE POWELL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTH AND WEST SIDES OF THIS FEATURE. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND AREAS OF SNOW ARE IN THIS MOIST FLOW AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES ONLY VERY SLOWLY SEWD. HAVE ALLOWED THE HIGHLIGHT FOR THE NRN MTNS TO EXPIRE FOR THESE REASONS. VALLEY TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE BELOW FREEZING IN SOME AREAS AND A FEW SPOTS HAVE REACHED 28 F OR BELOW. TEMPS WILL ALSO WARM SOMEWHAT TODAY AND FRI AND REMAIN WARMER TONIGHT. A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CWA ONCE THE LOW MOVES AWAY.
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
A FEW OF THE HIGH RES MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP OVERNIGHT NEAR CLL/UTS 06Z AND FOR IAH/HOU/SGR/LBX 10-15Z BEFORE STRONGER STORMS ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY WITH 3000+ CAPE/-8 TO -11 LI. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG THE WARM FRONT LATER THIS MORNING. THE LINGERING WARM FRONT. SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY ON SAT WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS SUN AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW FINALLY (!!!) LIFTS OUT TO THE E/NE. THE EN- SUING NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO PUSH A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST LATE SUN/EARLY MON. THE STRONGER WINDS APPEAR TO BE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THAT MAY WELL CHANGE LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS WARM FRONT LIFTS INLAND AND NEXT AND MORE POTENT S/W ARRIVES.
1023 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES COULD BE WARMER. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 69 56 76 58 / 50 20 30 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 70 56 75 57 / 50 20 20 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 70 57 76 58 / 50 20 20 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 66 51 74 53 / 50 20 20 10.
A COMPLEX SPLIT FLOW REGIME CONTINUES ALOFT WITH A VERY DEEP 500 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE INTER- MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS SETUP SHOULD YIELD A SLOW MIGRATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY BEGINS ITS MIGRATION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
BEST FOCUS FOR STORMS SEEMS TO SHIFT BACK TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE RIGHT AT FREEZING OR JUST ABOVE. UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT E/SE TODAY. BUT MAKE VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT OVERALL AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE CNDN ROCKIES SETTING UP A REX BLOCK TONIGHT.
High pressure builds in behind the low with a few quiet wx days. The latest forecasted track of the upper low will take it away from the area Friday lessening storm chances for the region.
645 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015 UPPER TROFFING WILL QUICKLY DEPART THE AREA THIS MORNING, WITH RIDGING TAKING ITS PLACE. THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROFFING WILL ALSO BRING OUR RAINFALL CHANCES TO AN END FOR NOW. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE VORTICITY CENTER WITH THE TROF IS CURRENTLY OVER OUR FAR EAST-CENTRAL COUNTIES, AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS FALLING OVER CHAMPAIGN, VERMILION, AND EDGAR COUNTIES. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO START THE DAY, BUT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS THE TROF PULLS AWAY AND THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN TO HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY, MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO DO SO AS IT CUTS OFF AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE WEST SIDE THIS MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FEET TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, SO SOME SNOW HEADLINES COULD BE EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED WHERE THE QPF IS HEAVIEST, NAMELY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY EAST OF MT.
IT IS JUST TOO WARM TO KEEP ANY THING BUT A SLUSH WITH AIR TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AS WELL. THE UPPER LOW IS SEEN WELL ON WATER VAPOR OVER NE LA AND MOVING EAST AS A CLOSED LOW.
MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE ROCKIES SLOWLY BUILDING EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT PLAINS. WAA/RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE RIDGE AXIS DEVELOPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER RIDGE PASSES OVER THE ON SATURDAY AS WARMER AIRMASS SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH WELL TO THE EAST RAISING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S OVER MOST LOCATIONS. RIDGE AXIS PUSHES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE ROCKIES AND COOL FRONT SETTLES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE DAY WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
THE SHERIFF/S OFFICE REPORTS SLUSH ON MANY ROADS AND ELEVATED EXPRESSWAYS AND BRIDGES WITH RECENT ACCIDENTS. CONDITIONS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING FROM BELOW WITH RADIANT HEAT FROM THE SOIL: THE AIR TEMP TOO IS ABOVE FREEZING. RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW AS TEMPERATURES HOVER JUST ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING. EXPECT SKC CONDITIONS TO TAKE CONTROL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW QUICKLY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. IT IS JUST TOO WARM TO KEEP ANY THING BUT A SLUSH WITH AIR TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AS WELL. THE UPPER LOW IS SEEN WELL ON WATER VAPOR OVER NE LA AND MOVING EAST AS A CLOSED LOW.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A BIT COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. HRRR IS CURRENTLY CLOSEST TO OBS WITH THE COOLER TREND. WITH THE COOLER TREND TO TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION AND WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT ON THE PLATEAU. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING LARGELY DUE TO THE SNOW COVER BUT ALSO WITH CAA BEHIND THE LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM.
MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE E PAC WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THAT WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 4000 FEET WITH SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE PACNW SATURDAY NIGHT AND PCPN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE.
353 AM MST FRI JAN 22 2016 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVR THE AREA AND TONIGHT. WITH TEMPS ALOFT TODAY BEING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED EAST OF THE AREA WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO SOUTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO THE FREEZING MARK.
Given steep low lapse rates into stratus, have included a short window of light flurries and some patchy freezing fog for the morning hours out west and north. Neutral to cold advection continues into the overnight and lows fall to the high single digits to mid teens.
A Pacific cold front is currently bringing light rain to the northwest corner of the state with IR Satellite image showing the back edge of the front now moving onshore along the far north coast. Snow levels in this region ahead of the front should remain above 6000 feet today so only the highest elevations are expected to be impacted.
543 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016 PRECIP ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 EARLY THIS MORNING MAY BE A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SCATTERED FLURRIES. THE REGION IS ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. THEN DRY THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD WITH UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING.
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED. SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER WITH SURFACE WINDS SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH.
414 AM MST FRI JAN 22 2016 A STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WITH ITS RIDGELINE PASSING EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN BY SUNSET.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY MOVES AWAY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOISTURE BEGINNING TO RECOVER.
649 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY.
LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWED A TROUGH PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE BIGGER QUESTION FOR TODAY IS WHETHER WE WILL SEE ANY CLEARING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED.
This combined with the snow cover over much of the area will keep afternoon temperatures from climbing above freezing this afternoon.
427 AM MST FRI JAN 22 2016 LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR DATA INDICATE A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. WITH THE WEST EDGE NEAR THE HIGHWAY 27 CORRIDOR. THIS MORNING FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER WHERE THE LOWEST FEW HUNDRED FEET WILL SATURATE. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY AS A WARMER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE RIDGE. TONIGHT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. WITH THE WARMER AIR MASS IN PLACE LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.
HIGH PRESSURE AT 09Z OVER FAR NW MN. WOULD ANTICIPATE THE LOWER CLOUDS COVERING DVL-WAHPETON WESTWARD INTO CNDTRL AND WRN ND TO MOVE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. WITH TROUGH MOVING THRU WINDS WILL GO WEST.
432 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016 A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AS A DYNAMIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM MISSISSIPPI. BUT COLDER CLOUD TOPS ARE EVIDENT NEAR THE CENTER OF THE 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ARKLAMISS WHERE A TRANSITION TO SNOW HAS TAKEN PLACE. THE UPPER TROUGH IS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE THAN WAS EXPECTED. LEADING TO A FASTER SURGE OF COLD AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. AN ENVELOPE OF FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
A WEAK TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL TURN WINDS FROM A NORTH NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THEN EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND A STRONG NOREASTER DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS CLOUDS TRY TO CLEAR. BUT THAT WILL BE A CHALLENGE GIVEN THE TRAPPING OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THEREFORE WILL SIDE WITH THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE GIVEN THE LESS LIKELY SCENARIO OF SKIES CLEARING OUT WHICH WOULD ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWER MINS. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER. WITH SOME SUNSHINE AT TIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN WITH THE RIDGE.
THE EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL STRATOCU FIELD OVER OK AND NORTH CENTRAL TX IS BEING MAINTAINED BY GOOD COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET. THE BACK EDGE WILL PROBABLY TAKE ITS TIME RECEDING EASTWARD AS RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDS SLOWLY OVER THE AREA. OUR WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST ON SATURDAY AS RIDGING INTENSIFIES AND SURFACE WINDS SWING AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY AFTERNOON.
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AS A DYNAMIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM MISSISSIPPI. BUT COLDER CLOUD TOPS ARE EVIDENT NEAR THE CENTER OF THE 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ARKLAMISS WHERE A TRANSITION TO SNOW HAS TAKEN PLACE. THE UPPER TROUGH IS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE THAN WAS EXPECTED. LEADING TO A FASTER SURGE OF COLD AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. AN ENVELOPE OF FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
Winds will become light and variable around sunset as the surface anticyclone migrates across the region.
DRY CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
An upper level ridge of high pressure will build across the Rockies and Plains through the short term as an upper level low decimates portions of the eastern United States. A dome of high pressure will slide east of the area this afternoon with a trough of low pressure developing across eastern Colorado. As for temperatures, highs today are progged to range from the lower 30s across north central Kansas to around 50 degrees along the KS/CO border.
WITH MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRAP AROUND THE EXITING SFC/UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS BETWEEN EASTWARD ADVANCING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA. AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING THROUGH THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS DEPICTING EXTENSIVE WRAP-AROUND STRATOCU IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND AT/BENEATH A STRONG FRONTAL INVERSION. DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL RESULT IN A WEEKEND OF TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW THE NORM. MORNING LOWS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING MARK. TEMPERATURES TREND UPWARD FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORKWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.
AS THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST. WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON OUR EASTERN FRINGES WHERE FRESH SNOW COVER COUPLED WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS HIGH COMBINED WITH NRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR TODAY/TONIGHT COMPARED TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SINKS DOWN FROM THE NW AND WINDS DIMINISH. THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE HOW COLD IT GETS BENEATH THE HIGH. THEN EVEN UNDER THE HIGH. THEN LOWS BENEATH THE HIGH WILL LIKELY FALL DOWN TO AROUND AND EVEN BELOW ZERO IN A FEW SPOTS /GFS/.
THE COOLER AIRMASS BRIEFLY ARRIVING BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE AND FRESH SNOWPACK FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WILL HOLD BACK HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
THE LOWER-DECK CYCLONE. SHOULD GET FORCED SLOWLY E/NE ACROSS THE AL/TN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE PUNCHES NE FROM AZ/NM TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE AFORE- MENTIONED POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING E SKIES SHOULD CLEAR W-E TO ENABLE TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE. THIS WEEKEND: WARMER WEATHER IS STILL SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE AS THE ABOVE-MENTIONED MID-UPPER RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES & SPREADS E ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE CONUS SAT & SAT NIGHT. COMPACT CYCLONE THAT HAS BEEN APPROACHING THE NORTHERN CA/OR COAST DURING THE NIGHT WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT CROSSES AS IT CROSSES THIS SECTION OF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT & SAT.
A COLD START IS ON THE WAY ACROSS PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 30S. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER AND MID 50S OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND EASTERN COUNTIES. THE WARMER PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD BE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL STATES IS FORECAST TO PUSH TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. A CLEAR NIGHT WITH A SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS ARRIVING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS IN ADDITION TO LIGHT WINDS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY TRANSLATE TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 41 29 36 24 / 100 100 30 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 37 26 33 19 / 100 100 60 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 38 25 32 19 / 100 100 60 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 34 23 30 16 / 100 100 90 30 NC.
A warm ridge of high pressure will traverse the Northern Rockies today, bringing relatively warm temperatures to much of the region this afternoon. A low pressure system is still anticipated to swing through the Northern Rockies this weekend.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE E PAC WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. COOLER TEMPS ARE LIKELY THAT WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 4000 FEET WITH SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE PACNW SATURDAY NIGHT AND PCPN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE.
323 AM PST FRI JAN 22 2016 DRY AND A LITTLE COOLER TODAY UNDER WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND THROUGH CALIFORNIA WILL BRING COOLING AND SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WV Imagery indicates an amplified upper level ridge of high pressure shifting eastward across the Central and Southern Rockies. Near the surface, an area of high pressure remains in place across the Colorado Rockies. An upper level ridge of high pressure will build across the Rockies and Plains through the short term as an upper level low decimates portions of the eastern United States. A dome of high pressure will slide east of the area this afternoon with a trough of low pressure developing across eastern Colorado. As for temperatures, highs today are progged to range from the lower 30s across north central Kansas to around 50 degrees along the KS/CO border.
Do not think temperatures will rise too much today with the north-northeasterly winds and the clouds, so stayed on the cooler side of MOS guidance.
HIGH PRESSURE AT 09Z OVER FAR NW MN. WOULD ANTICIPATE THE LOWER CLOUDS COVERING DVL-WAHPETON WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND WRN ND TO MOVE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. WITH TROUGH MOVING THRU WINDS WILL GO WEST.
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS MAY END UP BEING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING WHERE THE SNOW MAY SLOW DOWN A BIT.
440 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016 PRECIP ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 EARLY THIS MORNING MAY BE A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SCATTERED FLURRIES. THE REGION IS ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. THEN DRY THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD WITH UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING.
AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH BEHIND SYSTEM. WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS CWA.