Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A subtle increase in dewpoints to the upper 30s to lower 40s is expected to keep RH values from dropping as far as today, and with the winds a bit lower as well, the GFDI values are forecast to be in the lower to moderate range, thus I do not plan to advertise any fire weather risk at this time tomorrow. We will remain locked in southwest flow at the surface most of the lower atmosphere with high pressure ridging centered over the Ohio River Valley, allowing temperatures in the 925-850 hPa level to climb into the 10-15 degree Celcius range. This first shot of moisture into our area will come Sunday night, and will interact with increasing lift from a developing LLJ and nearby warm front to the north to lead precipitation chances.
1121 PM CDT Fri Apr 2 2021 Increased/breezy southerly flow across the region this afternoon as high pressure slides east into the Ohio River valley region while a weak trough of low pressure was moving across the Dakotas. Otherwise, lows are expected to bottom out on the lower 30s to near 40. That aforementioned Dakotas trough makes passage through the area Saturday but very little expected with it other than a weak wind shift from southwesterly to northwesterly, blowing around 10 mph. Low pressure tracking along the US/Canadian border will drag a warm front into/though the region Saturday night into Sunday.
456 AM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 08z sfc analysis shows high pressure in place over eastern Kentucky keeping the skies clear and the winds calm to light. Such conditions are quite favorable for radiational cooling and, in these parts, a moderate to large ridge to valley temperature split at night. This is underway at present with readings varying from the low 20s in the valleys to the low 30s on the ridges. Dewpoints, meanwhile, are mainly in the low to mid 20s in the valleys and in the teens on the ridges. They all depict the gradual departure of the deep eastern trough from the region while heights rebound and northwest mid level flow continues through the period. This flow dampens in time as a weak trough works towards the region on Sunday eventually fading out well to our southwest.
High pressure was located over the eastern US and weak low pressure has developed in SE CO. The short wave will move into the Gulf tonight and flatten out as a brief upper level ridge develops over SE TX. The ridge will be short lived as another fast moving short wave moves into Central Texas on Sunday morning. 850 mb temps warm a bit and MaxT values should warm into the lower 70's.
Upper ridge with southwest flow into the region tonight and Saturday. Upper low moving across southern BC will push a cold front through the forecast area on Sunday. The upper low will be over the region Sun night into Mon with rain and snow showers. Forecast area will remain under the influence of a flat upper level ridge of high pressure through Saturday providing warm dry conditions and light winds but increasing high clouds. Changes will begin to take place on Sunday as an upper level trough that extends from western Canada back out over the eastern Pacific begins to split late Saturday.
336 AM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 High pressure will build in from the west today into Sunday.
337 AM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021 Surface analysis this morning shows a weak cold front located in western MN, with winds east of the front still out of the south as winds behind the front weaken and shift northwest.
243 AM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 Fair and cold through Sunday morning as Canadian high pressure builds into the region.
/Today through Sunday/ An elevated theta-E ridge at 700mb is providing sufficient upper- level forcing to result in some scattered showers across east Texas. Temperatures will fall into the 40s and rebound into the low 70s across the area Sunday. Cloud cover will make a speedy return to deep east Texas after midnight Sunday, and will linger through most of the day, keeping lows warmer and highs slightly cooler than those to the north and east.
Expecting temps to be slightly warmer today with highs in the low to mid 60s with lows tonight in the upper 30s. Main concern for this forecast period will once again be fire weather with Min RH values in the low to mid 20s across the entire CWA in combination with continued dry fuels.
An expansive and formidable region of high pressure covering the entire Eastern United States southward down the Florida Peninsula and the Gulf of Mexico, will migrate into the extreme Southeast United States coast over the next several days.
High pressure across the area is resulting in VFR conditions and calm winds at all sites through the period. JB Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 38 69 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 37 67 43 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 62 36 68 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 33 65 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 NC.
1121 PM MDT Fri Apr 2 2021 The ridge axis continues to be positioned over the Cowboy State today. With most of the snow in the lower elevations gone, and the 700mb temps in the 0 to +3 range, high temps today will continue to be 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Tomorrow, we are also still looking at near record highs across most of the region as the ridge remains in place. The upper level ridge responsible for the 15-20 degree above normal temperatures will remain across the region through Sunday.
302 AM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 Dry weather and a warming trend is expected for the weekend under high pressure. Rain chances return with an early week warm front. Warmer high temperatures are expected today, though readings should still be around 5 degrees below seasonable levels. Mainly sunny skies are expected Sunday as another area of high pressure builds across the Upper Ohio Valley region.
Saturday Temperatures will climb a few degrees higher today, compared to yesterday, as an upper ridge continues to build across the region.
A northwest upper flow pattern will prevail through the period, resulting in building high pressure. At the sfc, high pressure will gradually slide east with an easterly flow becoming southeast by Saturday afternoon. As winds become southeast on Saturday, temps will warm into the low to mid 60s.
An upper ridge from the Canadian Rockies into the northern U. Meanwhile, an upper trof over the southern Rockies will slide under the ridge into Texas.
330 AM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021 Water vapor satellite this morning was showing weakening low within the mid level ridge over eastern Arizona with the ridge across the Rockies and northwest flow across the Plains. The mid level ridge builds into the Plains today and warmer temperatures in the 70s are expected with warm air advection amid southwesterly winds. The ridge remains in place across the Plains on Sunday with warm advection and rising heights, temperatures are expected to warm into the 70s to lower 80s with the warmer temperatures across north central and northeast Kansas.
The current upper level pattern is characterized by a deep trough along the eastern seaboard, ridging over the central CONUS, and a digging trough over British Columbia.
After a chilly start this morning, temperatures will rebound quickly with full April sunshine across the region under high pressure.
Will not ax these early just yet, but temperatures holding in the lower 40s so far with a steady south-southeast wind and some cloud cover. Will see some upper height rises as an upper ridge axis currently centered over the Rockies begins to nudge eastward. Lows tonight will range from the low 40s in the southeast CWA to the mid/upper 40s in the west. Stronger low level warm advection and Gulf moisture return will occur on Sunday ahead of an area of low pressure developing in the high plains. Highs should reach the low to mid 70s across the area.
High pressure is currently centered over the Appalachians and it will weaken and slide south during the day today. By tonight, looks like we should be well above freezing for lows, so no need for any headlines. Starting off much warmer on Sunday morning will lead to an even warmer day on Sunday, with highs around 70.
High temperatures return to the low 80s today and into the low to mid 80s across the entire region on Sunday. Records for Valentine and Broken Bow currently sit in the low 80s with forecasted highs expected in the mid 80s.
An upper level jet on the leading edge of the upper level ridging will move through tonight, which will swing a weak front into the area. This will do little to change temperatures, in fact tomorrow will be warmer than today. Highs on Sunday should be a few degrees warmer than Saturday and still expecting lighter winds.
A broad ridge will continue to dominate our weather. Temperatures will be a little warmer than yesterday. These will likely be the highest temperatures of the weekend as the ridge will flatten out becoming more zonal on Sunday. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler, but most areas will still be in the 70s with the foothills dropping into the mid to upper 60s. At the same time, southern portion of split trof will form a closed low over the PacNW.
118 AM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 Warmer conditions will build in for the weekend resulting in afternoon high temperatures reaching into the upper 60s to around 70 by Sunday afternoon.
324 AM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021 Weak upper trough coming across NM tonight is cutting under an upper ridge that extends northward into Canada. This trough will slowly move across the area today and tonight passing into N TX Sunday.
This mornings RAP model guidance has been showing the low level jet weakening somewhat and propagating to the east. Weaker flow was noted farther south with a closed upper low over Arizona moving east. A weak disturbance moving out over the northern Plains will push a weak cold front into central and southwest Kansas late tonight which will stall out on Saturday. This will be conducive to redevelopment of a low pressure trough in the lee of the Rockies with a strengthening pressure gradient and return to gusty south winds across western Kansas on Sunday.
1227 AM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021 (This evening through Saturday) Gusty southerly winds and mild temperatures are affecting the area this afternoon, as an upper level trough located in AZ approaches from the west. This low is expected to continue moving east/southeast tonight into Saturday, and provide just enough lift combined with increasing low level moisture, to give parts of our area, mainly south of I-20 from late tonight into Saturday. For Saturday, we should see another cooler than normal day with mostly cloudy skies and the possibility of some showers in the area.
An upper- level trough, which is over the desert southwest at 3 AM, will move over the area this evening, with the main energy remaining mostly to our south. The lift from the trough, along with CAPE ~400 J/kg could provide enough lift to promote shower and thunderstorm development over the southern South Plains. The lower atmosphere will be too dry for rain to reach the ground except in the far southwestern South Plains where a few hundredths of an inch could be possible. Gkendrick The weak upper level trough will slowly edge east away from the area Sunday with northwest flow aloft to follow.
The visible satellite, just before the sun went down, was revealing again the high cirrus blanketing the eastern half of Washington this evening and stretching into Idaho and Montana. A very dry sounding with breezy winds at the surface and in the lower levels. There is a chance our low temperature forecast for some low-land locations tonight/Saturday morning is a bit cooler than we achieve with the cloud cover in place and forecast to remain in place through most of Saturday.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): A nearly zonal mid-level flow is expected over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the period with weak 500 mb ridging over Mexico and closed 500 mb low pressure lingering over north Texas. Additionally, the combination of above normal astronomical high tides and rough swells approaching the Lower Texas Coast from the east-southeast will create minor flooding at the beaches of South Padre Island and at Boca Chica Beach today.
Satellite imagery shows an upper low north of the New Mexico Bootheel with a short wave trough moving across the Texas Big Bend. The short wave trough will move east across the Hill Country this morning and the coastal plains of the upper Texas coast this afternoon. With the short wave trough passing by close to the Victoria area, could see isolated showers move across this afternoon. A weak short wave ridge will move across the region tonight as the upper low opens into a short wave trough that moves into the Edwards Plateau by 12Z Sunday.
215 AM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 High pressure dominates the weather through the holiday weekend and into the first part of the work week.
A broad northern tier ridge is progged to maintain genly dry weather and seasonably warm temperature for the first half of the week.
Expect another quiet weather day across the region on Sunday but with slightly warmer temperatures and increasing southerly winds.
This mostly affected areas southward with temperatures 3-4 degrees cooler than previously advertised. I didn't make any major changes, though PoPs were tweaked a bit for Wed-Fri as medium-range guidance continues to suggest a cut-off low to eject across the center of the country during this time.
142 AM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 Fair and cold through Sunday morning as Canadian high pressure builds into the region.
Upper level ridge reaching its peak today, with today being the best chance for some high temperature records being set. On Sun, cloud cover from an approaching trough will reduce the chance of records and may even develop a cooling trend. Wind will also increase on Mon, possibly to Advisory level, but there is not a lot of consistency to the actual track of the closed low and the intensity of that low.
An even warmer day Saturday. A flattened upper ridge will extend across the U. Sunday, as an upper trough begins to move into the Pacific Northwest.
Evening temperatures were generally ranged from the low- mid 30s in the rural and valley locations, to the lower 40s on the ridge tops. The urban areas and ridge tops will probably stay in the upper 20s to the very low 30s. Freeze Warning remains in effect due to the expected duration of sub-freezing temperatures. With the light and variable winds along with clear skies, temperatures will once again drop to near and below freezing for several hours Saturday morning.
--Warmer Sunday, still dry-- Aforementioned weak frontal boundary will be over the area on Sunday which results in a light wind regime.
341 AM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 Another cold start to the day as ample radiational cooling leading to near freezing temperatures across central Indiana. As subsidence weakens with the shift of the high to the SE, a few more clouds can be expected tonight into tomorrow but it will still be mostly sunny to partly cloudy for Easter Sunday. Dry and warm weather is expected to persist during this time period as the ECMWF and GFS show a weak ridge axis pushing through the Great Lakes. Meanwhile at the surface strong high pressure will be anchored over the southeastern states.
Broad upper level ridging will remain in place over the forecast area through the weekend.
/issued 249 PM CDT Fri Apr 2 2021/ A tight upper level low is poised over central AZ this afternoon riding to the south of a flat ridge in the western CONUS. The aforementioned wave will move east of the area Saturday night with weak upper level ridging moving in behind it.
Another chilly morning in the Florida with temperatures up north in the 30s and 40s elsewhere with some patchy frost possible in north of Citrus County as high pressure builds over the region. High pressure will build and a gradual warm up in temperatures will occur.
A weak upper level impulse moving into and over Central Texas ahead of an upper level trough moving over Southern New Mexico will provide the forcing for isolated to widely scattered showers this morning into early and mid afternoon. The upper level trough will move over Western and Central Texas forcing another round of isolated to widely scattered showers overnight into Sunday.
308 AM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 After another cold morning, temperatures will rebound nicely today to around 60 as brisk southwesterly flow around high pressure to the south advects milder air into the area. For tonight, high pressure passing north of the Great Lakes will drive a shallow weak front south to about the southern border before stalling.
Despite the forcing and a corridor of deeper moisture, the overall atmosphere, especially the low levels, still remains quite dry, with little to no reflectivities seen on regional radars. Pattern synopsis and forecast: High pressure will dominate the eastern half of the CONUS.
In the upper levels, a closed low continues to slowly track east through the Desert Southwest advecting Pacific moisture aloft. Guerrero A surface lee-side trough will strengthen on Sunday and it will push into the far western Oklahoma Panhandle by afternoon. Daytime heating with readings in the 80's will help to make the low levels unstable.
Flat upper level ridge located across the Northern Plains. Well mixed boundary layer will result in gusty south-southwest winds ahead of the trof. with period of gusty northwest winds behind the trof.
have allowed for temps to remain warmer than this time yesterday. with lows in the low 30s to low 40s. Lows tonight will be even warmer than this morning as SRLY flow increases.
327 AM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 High pressure will bring sunny skies to NY and PA through Saturday afternoon, before a storm system spreads widely scattered rain and snow showers across our region Saturday night. High pressure will return Sunday with milder weather. High pressure will yield a chilly morning, followed by a milder afternoon Saturday, though temperatures will average a few degrees below normal across NY and PA. On Sunday, a ridge will build through the Central U. A cool and dry air mass, pooled over the eastern Great Lakes and portions of the Northeast will continue to dominate the region as high pressure aloft builds in from the west.
413 AM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 High pressure will bring sunny skies to NY and PA through Saturday afternoon, before a storm system spreads widely scattered rain and snow showers across our region Saturday night. High pressure will return Sunday with milder weather. High pressure will yield a chilly morning, followed by a milder afternoon Saturday, though temperatures will average a few degrees below normal across NY and PA. On Sunday, a ridge will build through the Central U.
1120 PM MDT Fri Apr 2 2021 Updated Aviation Discussion It will remain breezy, dry, and warmer than normal across the region through the weekend, with the grassland fire danger remaining elevated. Winds on Sunday look to be more uniformly stronger across at least central and north-central MT, and perhaps into Southwest MT as well, thanks to low pressure passing to the north and high pressure to the south giving us a respectable pressure gradient.
1048 AM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 Fair and cold through Sunday morning as Canadian high pressure builds into the region.
/issued 249 AM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): A nearly zonal mid-level flow is expected over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the period with weak 500 mb ridging over Mexico and closed 500 mb low pressure lingering over north Texas. Additionally, the combination of above normal astronomical high tides and rough swells approaching the Lower Texas Coast from the east-southeast will create minor flooding at the beaches of South Padre Island and at Boca Chica Beach today.
Water vapor satellite this morning was showing weakening low within the mid level ridge over eastern Arizona with the ridge across the Rockies and northwest flow across the Plains. The mid level ridge builds into the Plains today and warmer temperatures in the 70s are expected with warm air advection amid southwesterly winds. The ridge remains in place across the Plains on Sunday with warm advection and rising heights, temperatures are expected to warm into the 70s to lower 80s with the warmer temperatures across north central and northeast Kansas.
314 AM MDT Sat Apr 3 2021 FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY. FOR EASTER SUNDAY, THERE IS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW.
752 AM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 Dry weather and a warming trend is expected for the weekend under high pressure. Rain chances return with an early week warm front. Warmer high temperatures are expected today, though readings should still be around 5 degrees below seasonable levels. Mainly sunny skies are expected Sunday as another area of high pressure builds across the Upper Ohio Valley region.
/issued 324 AM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021/ Weak upper trough coming across NM tonight is cutting under an upper ridge that extends northward into Canada. This trough will slowly move across the area today and tonight passing into N TX Sunday.
A warming trend can be expected this weekend due to south- southwest winds and rising upper level heights with an upper level ridge extending from the southwestern US into the Plains.
08z sfc analysis shows high pressure in place over eastern Kentucky keeping the skies clear and the winds calm to light. Such conditions are quite favorable for radiational cooling and, in these parts, a moderate to large ridge to valley temperature split at night. This is underway at present with readings varying from the low 20s in the valleys to the low 30s on the ridges. Dewpoints, meanwhile, are mainly in the low to mid 20s in the valleys and in the teens on the ridges. They all depict the gradual departure of the deep eastern trough from the region while heights rebound and northwest mid level flow continues through the period. This flow dampens in time as a weak trough works towards the region on Sunday eventually fading out well to our southwest.
Cooler than normal temperatures into this afternoon with highs around or just above 70 degrees, except upper 60s along the Volusia coast.
Today Temperatures will climb a few degrees higher today, compared to yesterday, as an upper ridge continues to build across the region.
642 AM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 High pressure will shift to the east today offering sunny weather conditions.
528 AM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 Dry weather and a warming trend is expected for the weekend under high pressure. Rain chances return with an early week warm front. Warmer high temperatures are expected today, though readings should still be around 5 degrees below seasonable levels. Mainly sunny skies are expected Sunday as another area of high pressure builds across the Upper Ohio Valley region.
1050 AM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 A 1033 mb high pressure system centered over the southern Appalachians supports fresh to strong northeast breezes across the Florida Keys this morning. A robust high pressure system centered over the southeastern United States will press southeastward and slowly weaken over the next few days.
Wide range of temperatures early this morning, depending on wind (warmer) or lack of (cooler). Southerly winds ahead of the trough central and east will transition to more west/northwest with the trough passage mid to late afternoon. Tight pressure gradient ahead of the trough will see sustained winds to 20 knots. Broad ridge will slowly flatten through Sunday night as embedded waves move within flow aloft.
/Issued 318 AM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021/ Closed upper low passing west and south of the Panhandles today across the southwestern states/southern Rockies and then across far West Texas and the Permian Basin.
521 AM MDT Sat Apr 3 2021 The biggest story in the short term will be the high chances for record breaking high temperatures. A strong ridge has already brought warm temperatures to the region as most of us noticed yesterday. Outside of the warm temperatures, expect some clouds to develop over the higher terrain thanks to daytime heating and some high clouds brushing NE UT and NW CO heading into the evening hours. Tomorrow, a system will begin moving into the PacNW and flatten the ridge of high pressure.
945 AM EDT Sat Apr 3 2021 High pressure will build in from the west today into Sunday.