Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
UPPER TROUGHS WERE ANCHORED OVER THE PACIFIC COAST STATES AND EAST OF THE MS VALLEY WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. MOISTURE AND WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE OVER TX/AR/LA WERE PRODUCING SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION. THE SHORT TERM MODEL CONSENSUS MAINTAINS THE MOIST FETCH FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF TODAY WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS IT SPREADS NORTHEAST ONTO THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER OWING TO GREATER CLOUD COVER. PRECIP WATER VALUES DROP TO AROUND A HALF INCH THURSDAY ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL QUASH MOST CONVECTION WITH THE EXCEPT OF A FEW ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC TSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WY MOUNTAINS.
LIKE YESTERDAY EXPECT BULK OF THE ACTION TO ROLL OVER THE TOP OF THE PERSISTENT RIDGE AND STAY NORTH OK/KS BORDER.
EARLY THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR SHOWED A MID-UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHWARD ON ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST BUT MID LEVEL HEIGHT TRENDS ARE NEUTRAL INTO THE NIGHT.
133 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST.
AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FOR SE IOWA/NE MISSOURI.
146 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOW 80S. WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.
148 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. PROVIDING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR MID WEEK. WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING DIPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
419 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER INLAND TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY WEATHER PATTERN ALONG WITH VFR. AND A FEW SMALL NOCTURNAL SHOWERS TRYING TO FORM OFF THE LOWER ACADIANA COAST. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HANGING IN OVER THE REGION WITH DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. MOISTURE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO STAY ROUGHLY THE SAME FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD IN PLACE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE WITH VALUES IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. PROGS HINTING AT THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIGHTLY WEAKENING.
WE SHOULD SEE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH HEATING TODAY AS WE STILL HAVE UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH COULD USHER IN A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES AROUND THE EAST TEXAS CENTERED RIDGE. I HATE TO EVEN CALL IT A COLD FRONT BECAUSE IT WILL NOT CHANGE OUR TEMPERATURES MUCH. AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. OR THE RIDGE COULD REMAIN. DIURNAL BASED CONVECTION/LOW POPS ARE INCLUDED IN THE EXTENDED FOR NORMAL SUMMERTIME ACTIVITY FOR NOW UNTIL I AM MORE CONFIDENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN.
330 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015 A PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL COMPLIMENTS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1018 MB OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH DRIFTS EAST INTO LOWER MI BY 00Z/7 PM AND RIDGES INTO IL. COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S OVER THE AREA WITH NE WINDS 5-10 MPH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS. 00Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH SHORT WAVE EJECTING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVER TOP OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO WI/NORTHERN IL THU. INCREASING SSE WINDS THU TO START TO BRING A BIT WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR BACK INTO CENTRAL IL. HIGHS THU IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH WARMEST READINGS SW CWA AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S BY THU AFTERNOON.
SEASONALLY COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALOFT. A COASTAL EDDY IS NOTED ON SATELLITE AND IS PICKED UP IN THE HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR.
LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH IS NOW INLAND OVER THE NW STATES. WESTERN IDAHO AND OREGON ZONES WILL BE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLOW. NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ENTER AND DEEPEN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM THWE WEST THURSDAY BUT MODELS KEEP THE AIR MASS DRY. SLIGHT COOLING WILL BE FELT IN OREGON ZONES THURSDAY BUT ERN-MOST IDAHO ZONES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY.
455 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 WATER VAPOR SHOWS A POTENT UPPER LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SPINNING EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. REST OF THE PERIOD STAYS QUIET AS MODELS STAY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HEIGHT RISES AS UPPER HIGH MEANDERS AROUND NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION. AT THE SURFACE A HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THERE ARE MORE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
Mid-level flow will ultimately be the deciding factor so with mid-level ridge axis reaching up into southern MO, the northern half of the forecast area is where the highest PoPs currently are. Of course, if that ridge axis doesn't quite get that far north, the cluster could take an even more southerly track, placing the KC metro area and points along the MO River in higher precip chances. Going forward for the remainder of the forecast period, the well- advertised upper ridge hanging out over the SE/SC CONUS simply does not want to budge anywhere anytime soon.
443 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AND LESS HUMID AIR.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND AN INCH OVER THE PLAINS WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS FOR TEMPS 850-700 MB TEMPS CHANGE LITTLE TODAY SO NOT SURE WHY MODELS HAVE READINGS 2 TO 3 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND THEREFORE RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY GETS FLATTENED BY THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST FIRED UP A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT FROM JACKPOT SOUTHWESTWARD TO GABBS.
LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF SOME CLOUDINESS BUT IT WILL STILL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTED LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S TONIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO BUILD FARTHER EASTWARD AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW BECAUSE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY LEE-SIDE TROUGHING EARLY IN THE MEDIUM- RANGE PERIOD WITH A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY NEAR THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE MODELS DISPLAY UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEAKENING SOMEWHAT LATE IN THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
AND A FEW SMALL NOCTURNAL SHOWERS TRYING TO FORM OFF THE LOWER ACADIANA COAST. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HANGING IN OVER THE REGION WITH DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. MOISTURE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO STAY ROUGHLY THE SAME FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD IN PLACE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE WITH VALUES IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. PROGS HINTING AT THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIGHTLY WEAKENING.
327 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 WATER VAPOR SHOWS A POTENT UPPER LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SPINNING EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. REST OF THE PERIOD STAYS QUIET AS MODELS STAY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HEIGHT RISES AS UPPER HIGH MEANDERS AROUND NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION. AT THE SURFACE A HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALSO UNCERTAINTY RESIDES IN HOW MUCH STRATUS WE WILL SEE AS TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWING SOUTH.
300 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY INTO THURSDAY KEEPING THE WEATHER BENIGN.
406 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2015 THE NEARLY CONSTANT FEATURES OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS AND DEEP TROUGH OVER WEST COAST PERSISTS.
443 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY MAKE A RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS DWINDLING OFF TO JUST SOME STARTIFORM RAIN UNDER THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE M70S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE L80S IN THE SERN VALLEYS. SHOWERS WILL END OVER SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS BY 00Z THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD TOWARD THE MID ATLC COAST. ACCOMPANIED BY AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING EWD FROM SERN CANADA INTO THE N.
525 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY.
1201 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015 THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE THAT WAS RIGHT OVER US HAS BEEN SHIFTED DOWN OVER SE TX BY A PASSING SHORT WAVE OVER OH VALLEY. /ISSUED 955 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015/ UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION TONIGHT /AND FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE FOR THAT MATTER/. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE CIRRUS BLOWOFF MAY NUDGE SLOWLY W INTO SE AR/NE LA OVERNIGHT ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS.
619 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH OVER THE AREA TODAY BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS ALONG WITH SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES AND LOWER HUMIDITY.
WITH THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SHOWING NO SIGNS OF MOVEMENT.
338 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OHIO WILL CLEAR THE STATE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
PROBABLY OWING TO ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE. CURRENT AIR TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S MOST LOCATIONS. THE FLORIDA KEYS REMAIN WITHIN A SORT OF DEEP-LAYER COL REGION BETWEEN TWO LARGE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONES. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE FINALLY WILL MOVE.
WITH A 1012 MB HIGH PRESSURE AREA ALSO OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. INCHED HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE GUIDANCE HERE AND THERE TO REFLECT THE EFFECTS OF PERSISTENT RIDGING AND ONGOING TRENDS.
MONSOONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY SO ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FIRE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ALTHO REALLY CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE HIGHER INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH COOLER LESS HUMID AIR AS WELL. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN NORTHWEST INDIANA AND THEN WILL BE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL BRING COOLER LESS HUMID AIR TO THE AREA. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN THE RULE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WENT A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ADVECTING IN ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE ML CAPE IS THE HIGHEST. DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED WITH THE WAVE COULD ALLOW FOR A SHOWER/STORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT SIDE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 105 DEGREES OVER SOME OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER SOME LOCATIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. THIS WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY AND HOT AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS BACK OVER THE REGION AND STRENGTHENS.
552 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 AVIATION CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL AND THE WEATHER DRY.
127 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE EAST OVERNIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE LOWER SFC DEW POINTS WILL LEAD TO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. IN FACT, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME LOCATIONS ALONG/NORTH OF THE I 64 CORRIDOR MAY DIP INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S BY SUNRISE THU.
OVERALL TODAY WILL BE MUCH SUNNIER AND DRIER ACROSS THE AREA AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY STARTS TO MOVE TO THE EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
416 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH OVER THE AREA TODAY BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS ALONG WITH SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES AND LOWER HUMIDITY.
WHEN WARMER BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS. STRATUS HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS ITS SLOW TRUCK TO THE EAST. THIS LOW CLOUD SHIELD IS GENERALLY BOUND ON THE WESTERN EDGE BY A TORONTO TO TOLEDO LINE. AS THE LOW PULLS EASTWARD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGED OVER THE WSTRN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT WEAKENED AS IT PUSHED TOWARD THE RIDGE AXIS IN WI. BUT THE APPROACHING S/W TROF AND H8 WARM FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO OUR SW COUNTIES LATE. THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED S/W TROF. H8 WARM FRONT.
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW SUITE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. IT APPEARS THAT RAPIDLY DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH NIGHTFALL WILL LIKELY NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF REDEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE AS THE REMNANTS MOVE OFF THE BLUE RIDGE OF VA/NC INTO OUR NW PIEDMONT. THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY RESIDED OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE OVER VIRGINIA. A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE SHIFTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (RANGING FROM NEAR 90 DEGREES TO THE LOWER 90S).
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER EASTERN TEXAS. THE RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS. SINKING AIR UNDERNEATH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY.
700 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 WATER VAPOR SHOWS A POTENT UPPER LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SPINNING EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. REST OF THE PERIOD STAYS QUIET AS MODELS STAY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HEIGHT RISES AS UPPER HIGH MEANDERS AROUND NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION. AT THE SURFACE A HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THERE ARE MORE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
A COLD FRONT WAS SITTING IN SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN A LINE FROM NW TN TO NW GEORGIA. THE DEEP RIDGE REMAINS EVIDENT OVER TEXAS THIS MORNING AS WELL WITH AN UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVING OFF THE NE COAST. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE SE DOWN THE RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT MOVING CLOSER AND STALLING OUT/WASHING OUT NEAR THE REGION TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY/THU IN TERMS OF TEMPS AND DEW POINTS AND EVEN A DEG OR TWO COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL NOT GO TOO LOW AS FULL SUN UNDER THE DEVELOPING RIDGE SHOULD STILL WARM US INTO THE LOWER 90S. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE/BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TYPE OF FEATURE LOOKS TO BE EVIDENT ON THURSDAY.
BUT COMPLEXES SEEM QUITE ELEVATED AND ARE LIKELY DRIVEN MORE BY WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN MOIST FLOW ATOP THE SRN PLAINS RIDGE. HAVE KEPT TEMPS AT OR BELOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND EASTERLY WINDS GETTING NO BETTER THAN SELY INTO THE AFTERNOON. 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STRUGGLING IN THIS WEAK FLOW PATTERN TO LATCH ON TO A CONSENSUS SOLUTION WITH THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. THE EC AND RECENT RUNS OF THE NMM/ARW DEVELOP ELEVATED CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE LIFTING WARM FRONT AND TAKE IT ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA. AS AN 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH IS NOW INLAND OVER THE NW STATES. WESTERN IDAHO AND OREGON ZONES WILL BE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLOW. NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ENTER AND DEEPEN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY BUT MODELS KEEP THE AIR MASS DRY. SLIGHT COOLING WILL BE FELT IN OREGON ZONES THURSDAY BUT ERN-MOST IDAHO ZONES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY.
348 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2015 An upper level trough will pass overhead today supporting scattered shower and thunderstorm activity south of I-90 but primarily focused from southern Idaho County eastward into Southwest Montana. Thursday will be a breezy day as a cold front sweeps southward across the region, west winds will gust from 25-30 mph for many areas during the afternoon. It will also be relatively dry with only weak shower activity possible across the higher terrain of Northwest Montana.
427 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AND LESS HUMID AIR.
WHEN WARMER BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS. STRATUS HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS ITS SLOW TRUCK TO THE EAST. THIS LOW CLOUD SHIELD IS GENERALLY BOUND ON THE WESTERN EDGE BY A TORONTO TO TOLEDO LINE. AS THE LOW PULLS EASTWARD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING JUST TO OUR NORTH AND SUBSIDENCE LARGELY IN CONTROL.
00Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS EAST TEXAS/ARKLATEX REGION PLACING US UNDER THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY AS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOCATION OR STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE KEEPS CONDITIONS PRETTY MUCH STATUS QUO. JORDAN THE HOT CONDITIONS OF LATE WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXERT THE GREATEST INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER LOCALLY. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND IS PROGGED TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER EAST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON INTO THE WEEKEND.
FLOW WILL REMAIN MAINLY ZONAL AS WE REMAIN UNDER CONSIDERABLE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH/RIDGE IN THE SOUTH.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE RIDGE WILL PROPAGATE EAST ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY.
138 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
APPROACHING THE TN/AL BORDER REGION PER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION PUSHING IT SWD. AS BUILDING SRN PLAINS UPPER RIDGING INFLUENCES BECOME THE PREDOMINATE WX FEATURE OF NOTE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WORK WEEK. DESPITE PREVALENCE OF THESE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES. AND THE MID STATE BEING ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THESE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES. WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WORKING IN BEHIND WEAK SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE. DESPITE AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE LOW 90S W OF PLATEAU.
413 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2015 (Today and Tonight) With upper level high pressure centered over Texas, hot and dry conditions will continue.
654 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER INLAND TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
625 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OHIO WILL CLEAR THE STATE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
653 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY INTO THURSDAY KEEPING THE WEATHER BENIGN.
DRIER WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WARMER BY THE END OF THE WEEK. JUST A FEW SHRA REMAIN AS THE UPPER TROF SETTLES IN. THIS WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHRA WITH IT AND THE UPPER TROF AXIS. AS THE UPPER TROF ROTATES IN. IT WILL TRY TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER PA LATE TONIGHT. STORMS FIRING AS EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT AND MID LEVEL TROF AXIS. HOPING ENOUGH MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AND WITH MID LEVEL TROF PASSING AROUND 00Z. THE LOWERING FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY BE AT THE PRICE OF WIND/HAIL. COLD FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY.
207 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER INLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND.
SMALL HAIL COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH FREEZING LEVELS ARE PROGGED A BIT HIGHER TODAY ALONG WITH H5 TEMPS A BIT WARMER. GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING STILL POSITIONED ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY MAKE A RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ALONG WHAT WAS THE WARM FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH IT SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR AND MOVE MOST OF THE STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS WILL END OVER SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS BY 00Z THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD TOWARD THE MID ATLC COAST. ACCOMPANIED BY AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING EWD FROM SERN CANADA INTO THE N.
644 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY PRODUCING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. AS OF 02Z THEY WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. AND WITH THE HIGH STILL WELL TO THE WEST.
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. SKIES OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAD CLEARED WHERE THE LOW LEVELS WERE QUITE DRY PER LATEST AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS. BROAD TROF IN ERN CANADA/U. AND RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL AMPLIFY LATE THIS WEEK AS A SHRTWV MOVES SE FROM SWRN CANADA ACROSS THE GRTLKS AND TO THE NERN CONUS.
1254 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2015 WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS ARKANSAS. NO CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
242 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR FREEZING IS PROBABLE OVER THE WEEKEND. COLD ADVECTION RESULTING IN A STRATOCU DECK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY WHEN FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING DEVELOPS TO HELP CLEAR CLOUD COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN.
/issued 222 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015/ An upper level trough is over the eastern conus with a cut off low off the southern California coast. Similar conditions will persist through Thursday with another upper trough moving southeastward over the Upper Midwest on the heals of the previously mentioned one. Conditions are expected to remain dry through Thursday with upper ridging impacting the area.