Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Noticeably warmer temperatures expected by this weekend. Temperatures will warmer today with highs in the valley around 70 degrees, 60s foothills, 40s and 50s mountains. Maybe some local 1-2 inch snow amounts over the higher elevations will be possible.
High temperatures still look to be a few degrees cooler due to cloud cover the day, probably in the low to mid 40s F on the plains and mid to upper 30s F in the mountains. The area should then be dry overnight and mostly clear, allowing for slightly colder overnight lows in the low to mid 20s F on the plains and teens in the mountains. As we've seen with the other systems this week, moisture is limited to what the trough brings with it which isn't much. Cold pool associated with the trough will help bring relative humidity to near saturation, while precipitable water remains low at.
700 AM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021 The cold front that moved through the area yesterday became stationary along the Louisiana coast last night. It has provided showers and thunderstorms throughout the duration of the night and into this morning mainly for SELA, the lower Atchafalaya Basin, and over the marine zones. Forecast soundings out ahead of the system show the potential for severe storms in our area, however the higher threat exist for areas off to our northeast.
Gusty ridgetop winds developed once again overnight, more pronounced in southern Lake County, a zone favorable for intercepting winds surging down the Sacramento Valley. The pattern will be disrupted as a weak cold front enters the region from the north later this afternoon and evening, bringing some light rainfall mostly north of Cape Mendocino. Any lingering showers will dissipate tomorrow, and that will be followed by re-amplification of an upper ridge located offshore.
408 AM MDT Wed Mar 24 2021 Moisture wrapping around the low cycling across the AZ/NM border is evident via satellite imagery. As the low lifts northeast this afternoon, showers will become more scattered in nature. Pockets of the southern and central mountains may see brief periods of heavy snow in these showers, though higher amounts remain localized to the highest peaks. Flow quickly shifts to the southwest by Thursday morning as the next Pacific trough digs into the Great Basin. Similar to the past few systems, mild temperatures paired with the high sun angle will keep roads mostly wet throughout the day.
/issued 700 AM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021/ The cold front that moved through the area yesterday became stationary along the Louisiana coast last night. It has provided showers and thunderstorms throughout the duration of the night and into this morning mainly for SELA, the lower Atchafalaya Basin, and over the marine zones. Forecast soundings out ahead of the system show the potential for severe storms in our area, however the higher threat exist for areas off to our northeast.
246 AM PDT Wed Mar 24 2021 Conditions will be warmer today with lighter winds. Warmer springlike conditions are likely this weekend. Short wave ridging and clearer skies will be over the region today allowing temperatures to increase 10-15 degrees warmer than yesterday with much lighter winds.
642 AM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021 (Today and tonight) The mid-level trough situated over the desert southwest continues to approach our area, resulting in increasing cloud cover and chances for elevated showers over western OK/TX today. The NAM is the most robust with the highest dewpoints, and over a broader area (south/southeast Oklahoma) which results in higher MUCAPE values (near 1200 J/kg).
A negatively tilted upper level trough axis will feed into the surface system, allowing it to strengthen as it moves northeast.
645 AM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021 GOES Water Vapor/RAP 500mb analysis showing closed low slowly making its way across IA as of early this morning. For today, the closed low will continue to slowly churn northeastward into WI with scattered showers continuing in broad cyclonic flow/lift. As the low pulls more into northern WI by this afternoon, plan on increasing west/northwest winds with gusts 20-30 mph. A few showers linger across north central WI this evening but then a weak ridge of high pressure starts to work on breaking up cloud cover with overnight lows falling into the upper 20s to mid 30s. NAM still the outlier for Thursday as both the GFS/EC take a deep area of low pressure far enough southeast of the area to keep precipitation out of the area.
However, another trough will swing through the region on Thursday, bringing gusty winds to the Kern County desert and a chance for light precipitation at the highest elevations of the Sierra Nevada.
A weather system will continue to bring cooler temperatures and a chance of valley rain and mountain snow today.
A dry cold front arrives late tonight into Thursday morning. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the mid to upper 80s to the lower 90s under partly cloudy skies.
Main update this morning is to upgrade the High Wind Watch to a High Wind Warning given increased confidence of strong mountain wave winds. Heading into tonight, a strong low pressure system begins to approach with low MVFR clouds and showers/embedded thunderstorms moving into to CHA, potentially before 12Z. BW Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 58 72 56 75 / 20 70 90 90 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 75 54 72 56 72 / 10 50 80 80 20 Oak Ridge, TN 74 54 71 56 72 / 10 50 90 100 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 73 51 70 56 70 / 10 10 70 80 20 TN.
From synopsis, A large continental area of high pressure over the North Atlantic Ocean will build southwestward, resulting in gentle to moderate breezes late today, with moderate to fresh east to southeast breezes tonight through the rest of this week and into the weekend.
908 AM EDT Wed Mar 24 2021 Dry stable conditions under high pressure over the region will support a pleasant dry day with ample sunshine across the entire forecast area with warming temperatures expected. Tranquil boating conditions will continue over the Gulf waters the remainder of today as high pressure remains in control with light southeast to south winds with an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast during the afternoon. Despite the low humidity and elevated ERC values, light winds will preclude Red Flag conditions, with similar conditions expected through the remainder of the week.
Gusty ridgetop winds developed once again overnight, more pronounced in southern Lake County, a zone favorable for intercepting winds surging down the Sacramento Valley. The pattern will be disrupted as a weak cold front enters the region from the north during Wednesday afternoon and evening, bringing some light rainfall mostly north of Cape Mendocino. Any lingering showers will dissipate during Thursday, and that will be followed by re-amplification of an upper ridge located offshore.
431 AM MDT Wed Mar 24 2021 Expect dry conditions, today, with gusty winds and warmer temperatures.
/issued 321 AM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021/ Interesting forecast for today and tonight as vigorous upper low over Arizona early this morning is expected to push east through New Mexico. Surface temperatures were in the lower 40s in that area early this morning and it is quite likely that the 12z temperature could end up being the high for the day for locations around Friona and Dimmitt. Depending on the snowfall rates that materialize, could see temperature fall into the middle 30s to just above freezing this afternoon. Precipitaion chances are expected to quickly exit the region this evening as the upper low lifts northeast from from NE New Mexico and the Western Panhandle away from our area.
The exception will be on elevated roads, such is bridges and overpasses where slick spots are possible.
However, with the temperatures falling a few degrees cooler than expected, some isolated slippery conditions may form. Did trend toward a warmer consshort solution as the NBM was one of the cooler solutions.
A seasonably strong sub-tropical ridge will start out centered off the Florida Coast. with broad troughing encompassing most locations west of the Mississippi River. A potent short wave trough will be taking on a negative tilt it moves from the middle- Mississippi Valley through the Ohio Valley Thursday night. At the surface, deepening low pressure will follow a similar track, with a very potent cold front to move through the area.
There's a bit more on the plains south of I-70 than we expected, on the edge of the lift associated with the upper low centered over the OK/TX panhandles. Low level warming and sunshine through at least the early part of the day will help the plains temperatures rise about 10 degrees warmer than today.
Sfc obs indicate that some of the low cloud cover has scoured out this morning, leaving VFR conditions. /issued 700 AM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021/ The cold front that moved through the area yesterday became stationary along the Louisiana coast last night. It has provided showers and thunderstorms throughout the duration of the night and into this morning mainly for SELA, the lower Atchafalaya Basin, and over the marine zones. Forecast soundings out ahead of the system show the potential for severe storms in our area, however the higher threat exist for areas off to our northeast.
Weak cold front has cleared the forecast area and dry conditions will continue through the afternoon.
Another area of low pressure will drop into the area Thursday bringing a quick return to unsettled weather.
/Tonight through Wednesday/ Take Home Points: *Additional rain chances SE Thur, widespread Fri PM into Sat *General warming through Mon, some low 70s possible Mon! *Cooler and uncertain rain/thunder chances Tue/Wed Discussion: The wrapped up low pressure system that brought about widespread rains the last 24 to 36 hours across the state continues to slide off to the NE through the broader SW flow.
Low level clouds are taking some time to erode this morning as temperatures respond, staying a touch cooler. Most places are now in the low 60s and should still climb into the 70s this afternoon. and a second one with the low.
1248 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021 (Today and tonight) The mid-level trough situated over the desert southwest continues to approach our area, resulting in increasing cloud cover and chances for elevated showers over western OK/TX today. The NAM is the most robust with the highest dewpoints, and over a broader area (south/southeast Oklahoma) which results in higher MUCAPE values (near 1200 J/kg).
1230 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021 A closed upper low was centered over northeast IA while another closed low was located near the AZ and NM border. Lows will fall below freezing mostly in the upper 20s. On Thursday, weak upper ridging occurs over the area as an upper trough digs southeastward across the Great Basin and Rockies.
Cannot rule out a brief mix of snow early Thursday morning across the higher terrain of central Kansas.
An upper level trough is moving across AZ/NM this afternoon. Skies are clearing from west to east and the higher temperatures are where skies are clear. the upper trough will progress to the northeast tonight. The southern half of the CWA may miss out as the upper trough moves toward the northeast and the forcing for convection may not reach that far south.
342 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021 H5 analysis from earlier this morning had a broad longwave trough of low pressure across the CONUS. Within this broad trough, two closed H5 lows were noted. High pressure was noted over the western Caribbean with a secondary area of high pressure noted roughly 1200 miles off the coast of southwestern Oregon. At the surface, low pressure was located over western Wisconsin with a cold front extending south southeast into Indiana and western Kentucky. The upper level low, currently along the NM/AZ border will slide east then northeast into central Kansas as an open wave through 12z Thursday. At the same time, an upper level trough will dive south into the swrn CONUS. Thursday night, the upper level trough will begin to track into the four corners region.
1224 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021 Rain has been mixing back into the snow in west-central Minnesota this morning as temperatures slowly climb above freezing. However, with the temperatures falling a few degrees cooler than expected, some isolated slippery conditions may form. Did trend toward a warmer consshort solution as the NBM was one of the cooler solutions.
Surface pressure falls ahead of the disturbance will increase the low level gradients, with CAG-CPR 700mb near 40 meters.
Main update this morning is to upgrade the High Wind Watch to a High Wind Warning given increased confidence of strong mountain wave winds. Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 72 56 75 52 / 70 90 90 10 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 72 56 72 49 / 40 80 80 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 54 71 56 72 49 / 50 90 100 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 70 56 70 46 / 10 70 80 20 10 TN.
This will be in advance of a cold front that is expected to traverse the region beginning overnight Thursday.
Low level clouds are taking some time to erode this morning as temperatures respond, staying a touch cooler. Most places are now in the low 60s and should still climb into the 70s this afternoon.
Lows tonight in northeast Nebraska in the lower 30s, and in the mid to upper 30s for other areas. Highs Thursday in the lower to mid 50s.
244 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021 Water vapor showing the advertised closed low moving through central NM this afternoon, with continued precip across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle. The upper level low will weaken and open as it continues to push NE overnight. As the base of the upper low moves across the CWA good upper level dynamics along with decent mid and lower level moisture will increase precipitation chances across the central South Plains and Rolling Plains this evening. falls across the central South Plains overnight and temperatures fall to near and just below freezing a snow flurry or two could mix in. Tomorrow, in the wake of the upper trough upper level ridging builds over the region with westerly winds. This will return dry and warmer conditions the area with highs in the 60s area wide.
1211 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021 Picturesque stacked low pressure is currently centered over north central IA early this morning and progged to continue a north/northeast trajectory though the morning hours today. At this point, any snow accumulations seem unlikely Drier and cooler northwesterly flow will begin to clear out the cloud cover from west to east through the afternoon hours, although some indication this clearing may begin to stall out as it approaches the I-29 corridor.
Thursday's forecast for rain and severe thunderstorms is associated with a developing low pressure system over the southwestern U. As the low-level jet intensifies to 65-70+ kts over portions of the Tennessee Valley, a deepening low pressure center will be moving across the Missouri bootheel. Another feature to monitor is a warm front, expected to lift north through the area mid to late morning. Given the amount of low-level shear and proximity to the warm front/deepening low pressure center, a couple strong, long-track tornadoes are possible.
/issued 1018 AM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021/ This morning's warm front is now evident on radar, among other observation systems, as it approaches the I-20 corridor.
Then a low pressure moves to the north of the forecast area a cold front will swing through the area tomorrow bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms to much of the area.
The associated warm front will lift into our region late tonight into Thursday morning. Clouds will quickly increase across the PAH forecast area late tonight with the approach of the warm front, as will the chances of showers and some thunderstorms. However, the track of the low with increasing low level moisture and low level shear in the afternoon may be able to still produce some severe storms in our region. Once the low pushes off well to our northeast, dry conditions will return as high pressure moves south and southeast of our region.
The short term models have been staying consistent that the closed low in New Mexico should evolve into a progressive longwave trough and this should quickly push the rainshowers out of our forecast area around midnight or shortly after. Cooler air will be in place much of the day with some late afternoon weak war air advection entering western Kansas.
100 PM MDT Wed Mar 24 2021 Moisture begins working into western mountains this afternoon ahead of an upper low moving out of western Canada on Thursday/Thursday night. Flow aloft becomes more westerly pulling Pacific moisture into the high country for a few inches of snow on west facing slopes overnight. Can't rule out a brief snow shower or two for the western valleys and foothills overnight but downslope winds will work against precipitation making it into the lower elevations. Thursday starts out dry for the lower elevations with continued scattered snow showers in the western mountains. By mid day a cold front will turn winds northerly and as temperatures fall precipitation chances will increase into the late afternoon hours.
225 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021 The upper low that brought over an inch of rain to many portions of the region, continues to move through Wisconsin early this afternoon. Drier air is advecting south behind this upper low, assisting in eroding the stratus in the local area. Temperatures will fall just below freezing in most areas. Winds will remain light, and this may limit the rise of temperatures into the lower 50s.
Afternoon highs are expected to range from the mid 50s over east central KS to the low 70s along the MO/AR border south and southeast of West Plains. A closed upper low now over eastern AZ will open up and move east then northeast reaching the Red River OK/TX early Thu then the Ozark region Thu afternoon.
Current temperatures are in the low 70s. At the surface, a developing low pressure system over northeast TX will also move northeast across the MS Valley region. A warm front is expected to lift northward across portions of North MS just after midnight tonight. Storms will be ongoing Thursday morning as the warm front continues north. Surface instability, a strengthening LLJ ~50kt coupled with strong wind profiles from the surface to the mid- levels will support strong to severe thunderstorms across the Mid-South on Thursday ahead of a surface cold front.
East of the low, running parallel to the Ohio River, a warm front will extend and a cold front will trail to the south. This will leave southern Indiana and central Kentucky in the warm sector tomorrow morning before the cold front passes west to east later in the evening. The threat is stronger to the south, but given the high shear low cape environment, a quick spin up is possible.
1111 AM MDT Wed Mar 24 2021 Upper lows were located over WI and south of the Four Corners, with a weak short wave trough from the central Dakotas to eastern UT. The regional surface analysis showed a trough draped from west- central MT through central WY and northwest CO.
Tonight, forecast guidance shows the low changing more into an upper wave trough as it moves north-northeast over the CWA. Overnight low temperatures expect to range from the middle 20s to the lower 30s. On Thursday, a weak upper air ridge moves over the CWA during the day as the previous trough departs eastward. This ridge does not stay long as a trailing trough in the west continues an eastward progress to reach near the Four Corners region by late Thursday. Daytime highs for the CWA warm to the lower to middle 50s while the overnight lows range between the upper 20s and the middle 30s.
1241 PM PDT Wed Mar 24 2021 It will be cool and breezy today with mountain snow and mix of rain and snow in the lower elevations.
The upper trough supporting the front will move into Texas tonight giving another southward push to the front and shifting winds from the northwest. The trajectory of the upper trough will bring a highly modified pacific airmass into the CWA and with winds quickly shifting from the west tomorrow, will actually give us temperatures near or even slightly above that seen today so the term "cold front" is a bit of a misnomer.
1245 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021 GOES Water Vapor/RAP 500mb analysis showing closed low slowly making its way across IA as of early this morning. For today, the closed low will continue to slowly churn northeastward into WI with scattered showers continuing in broad cyclonic flow/lift. As the low pulls more into northern WI by this afternoon, plan on increasing west/northwest winds with gusts 20-30 mph. A few showers linger across north central WI this evening but then a weak ridge of high pressure starts to work on breaking up cloud cover with overnight lows falling into the upper 20s to mid 30s. NAM still the outlier for Thursday as both the GFS/EC take a deep area of low pressure far enough southeast of the area to keep precipitation out of the area.
More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop later this evening, as lift increases with an approaching upper trough to our west. A cold front will move south across the area overnight, with precipitation ending across eastern counties late.
Weak upper ridging will keep things mostly dry during the daylight hours. Currently, a cold front was over eastern Arkansas and eastern Louisiana. Temperatures will once again be above normal today with highs in the low to mid 70s. By tonight, the front will retreat back to the northwest as a warm front. Low pressure is expected to develop along the front over east Texas and move along the front. As the low approaches the region, thunderstorms are expected to develop and move across the Mid-South from south to north. The cold front will move out of the region Thursday night with thunderstorms ending during the evening hours.
Midlevel clouds are beginning to move over western Wyoming as the weak ridging gives way to an approaching trough. The trough will slide south overnight and Thursday, with the main center of low pressure staying to our west.
1115 AM MDT Wed Mar 24 2021 The low pressure system that brought a little precipitation to the area yesterday and overnight will continue to move off to the east today. Drier high pressure moving in from the northwest will gradually clear out the clouds, with skies becoming mostly sunny by this afternoon. An area of low pressure currently over southern Alberta will move southward into the forecast area on Thursday. Breezy to windy southerly winds developing to the east of the low pressure system will lead to slightly warmer than average temperatures on Thursday afternoon.
Temps today are about 10 degrees warmer than they were at this time yesterday. Next system quickly moving in from the NW today with a cold front passing through early Thursday that will bring an increase in NW winds Thursday afternoon.
247 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021 18Z surface data has the cold front just west of the Mississippi in eastern Iowa. Scattered showers associated with the cold front will exit areas east of the Mississippi around sunset.
On Thursday, the winds shift westerly and becoming quite strong in the mountains and deserts as a trough of low pressure moves in from the north.
231 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021 Taking a look at the surface weather map we have a ridge of high pressure set up across he western half of the forecast area, and an exiting low over northern WI/upper MI. At 500mb a large trough was set up across interior portions of western and central U. Embedded within this large trough is several smaller scale features, with brief ridging over our area tonight before southwesterly flow sets up through Thursday night. Surface winds will be on the increase again Thursday as the high exits across MN, and we stay in between that and the nearing trough from eastern MT/northeastern WY and far western SD.
1051 AM PDT Wed Mar 24 2021 It will be cool and breezy today with mountain snow and mix of rain and snow in the lower elevations.