Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
2am temperatures were 4-9 degrees warmer than 24hrs ago, with readings in the low to mid 60s. Forecast soundings show another day of deep mixing between 800-750mb, which would yield afternoon highs a few degrees warmer than yesterday in the low to mid 80s. This will keep temperatures mild despite mostly clear skies, with readings ranging from the upper 60s near Kirksville, MO, to the lower 60s near Freeport, IL Tuesday morning. Rain chances look rather low along cold front passage Tuesday. This will drag a cold front through the CWA Tuesday.
Ahead of a mid-level digging trof, a very warm to hot airmass will advect east into the Northern Plains. Low level lapse rates remain steep on Tuesday and thus the wind will remain gusty, especially in the afternoon, but the airmass will be considerably cooler.
618 AM EDT Mon Sep 6 2021 A weak cold front approaches from the northwest today.
Should be a beautiful day with some drier air moving in from the north, and afternoon highs in the low 80s. LW Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 63 86 68 87 / 0 0 20 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 61 86 68 87 / 0 0 10 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 82 60 85 67 87 / 0 0 10 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 54 85 64 84 / 0 0 10 10 50.
(Today through Tuesday afternoon) The cold front that initiated storms over Southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin yesterday afternoon, has dropped south into the Trans-Pecos. High temperatures are forecasted to stay in the low 90s for the plains, upper 80s for the mountains, and 100s along the Rio Grande. Storms are possible this afternoon across much of the region with the highest PoPs centered south of I-10. Tuesday, temperatures are forecasted to warm back above normal due to a thermal ridge building over the region.
Latest water vapor imagery shows a mid level trough extending through the Ohio Valley and into the lower MIssissippi Valley early this morning. At the surface, a cold front was draped from its parent low over PA, south-southwestward through eastern TN and into southern MS. The mid level trough will swing through the TN Valley during the day, pushing the cold front south of the area and bringing in drier air to the TN Valley. This will make for a fairly pleasant day, with clearing skies and highs warming into the lower to mid 80s. The axis of a mid level trough will weaken as it moves east of the area, causing the surface cold front to stall just south of the area before it dissipates completely.
PV anomaly now cresting the ridge and moving toward our region may enhance cirrus some late in the day.
This trough looks to shear out and stall as it makes it closer to the Gulf Coast this afternoon and evening. The associated surface cold front is well on its way south across our area early this morning, but it should similarly stall out around the Gulf Coast today with the loss of mid-level forcing. Apart from the heavy rain and flash flooding threat, the front will also bring cooler temperatures to the area today (think mid 80s vs mid 90s!), and drier air to far northwestern parts of the area in the ArkLaMiss Delta region. Similarly, overnight temperatures should be about 5-8 degrees cooler than the last few nights.
521 AM EDT Mon Sep 6 2021 Mainly dry weather and seasonable temperatures are expected through Tuesday under building high pressure.
High pressure moving from Missouri this morning. With plenty of sunshine, rising heights, and dry air, temperatures will be able to make a good recovery today into the lower and middle 80s this afternoon. except a few degrees warmer in urban Louisville. Tuesday starts off with a strong upper level ridge over eastern Nevada and a deepening upper low northwest of Lake Superior. The upper trof begins to dig southeast over the Upper Midwest on Tue. At the sfc, a cold front will push southeast through the Midwest, reaching central Illinois and Missouri by evening.
A modest push of cooler air follows on Tuesday, and the CAA and tighter pressure gradient behind the low will yield 20 to 25 mph winds with gusts in the mid to upper 30s possible. With 500mb ridging expected, high confidence as ensemble spread is low, to prevail for much of the forecast period dry conditions are expected with normal or seasonal temperatures this week.
415 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021 The main forecast concern in the near term is the arrival of a weak surface cold front this afternoon.
641 AM EDT Mon Sep 6 2021 Frontal boundary clears the area today, with high pressure building in from the west tonight and into Tuesday.
716 AM EDT Mon Sep 6 2021 Aviation - Upper troughing with severe weather possible Tuesday After a fair weather Labor Day, we look to the risk of severe weather on Tuesday as an upper trough amplifies across the central Great Lakes with wind profiles showing 40 knots of deep layer shear.
High temps will be cooler in the central and east zones with upper 70s to mid 80s. Warm and dry conditions will continue through most of the week as a broad area of high pressure rotates over the Great Basin.
645 AM EDT Mon Sep 6 2021 A weak cold front will slip southeast through our region today.
There is a good chance for thunderstorms accompanied by strong gusty winds late Tuesday into early Tuesday night as a cold front moves through the area.
629 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021 (Today and tonight) An upper level high will remain over the Great Basin today, with weak northerly flow aloft over our area.
630 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021 Temperatures at most locations have now fallen into the 50s with a few remaining in the low 60s. The main concern for the near-term forecast is in regards to fire weather as a cold frontal boundary drops through the state today. Minimum relative humidity values are also expected to drop to 15 to 25 percent, with the lowest values in far southwestern North Dakota. Highs today will be rather warm from the low 80s north to the low 90s south.
512 AM PDT Mon Sep 6 2021 A coastal eddy will spread cooling into the valleys through Tuesday with the lower deserts not as hot.
High pressure continues to build over the Desert Southwest today. This looks to result in gusty winds across the higher terrain, especially for the central Idaho mountains.
In areas west of I-65, temperatures were mainly in the lower 80s, though the urban heat islands were already in the middle 80s. Overnight lows will dip into the low-mid 50s in typical cooler/valley locations. With high pressure to our east, we'll get into a return flow pattern which should allow afternoon temperatures to be slightly warmer.
214 PM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021 A strong ridge of high pressure will remain entrenched across the Great Basin, leaving the western slope under a northerly flow aloft. This means the lower valleys of west-central and southwest Colorado as well as southeast Utah will see highs back in the 90s.
Tomorrow a change in the upper pattern takes place as an upper level trough digs down over the Great Lakes region and broad upper ridging remains in place over the Western CONUS. However, very little changes will occur at the surface as our weak cold front will remain over the area. At the close of the short term the aforementioned trough continues to dig over the Great Lakes region sending another cold front towards the FA.
H85 temps drop from 28C along the thermal ridge at 06z to around 16C by 18z. In response, blended in some cooler guidance for min temps across the panhandle and northwest. Maintained milder temps in the lower 60s for central Neb where the cooler air doesn't arrive until closer to dawn. Blended in cooler min temps, especially in the usual spots from near KAIA to KGRN. Mid to late week, the large upper ridge spreads out onto the Great Plains, eventually transitioning the flow to westerly/quasi-zonal.
A flat upper ridge will dominate the southeast through the short term. The forecast area will be on the southern end of a trough moving across the Great Lakes. The upper level trough centered over the Great Lake states begins to dig south into the Mid MS river valley Wed morning. At the same time there is a second cold front that weakens substantially as it moves out of the Upper MS river valley and pushes into NW GA late Wed night. The second and much drier cold front moves into NW GA late Wed into Thu morning and pushes the old stalled boundary and the tropical wave South and east across the state.
Temperatures at most locations have now fallen into the 50s with a few remaining in the low 60s. The main concern for the near-term forecast is in regards to fire weather as a cold frontal boundary drops through the state today. Minimum relative humidity values are also expected to drop to 15 to 25 percent, with the lowest values in far southwestern North Dakota. Highs today will be rather warm from the low 80s north to the low 90s south.
146 PM EDT Mon Sep 6 2021 Aviation - Upper troughing with severe weather possible Tuesday After a fair weather Labor Day, we look to the risk of severe weather on Tuesday as an upper trough amplifies across the central Great Lakes with wind profiles showing 40 knots of deep layer shear.
MUCAPE in excess of 1,200 j/kg, bulk shear of 40 knots, low-level SRH of 200+ m2/s2, dew points near 60F, and DCAPE of 1,000+ j/kg are the favorable parameters ahead of an incoming cold front. Moisture return is still meager thanks to a ridge over western TX blocking Gulf moisture.
Concur with deterministic NAM/GFS prediction that an upper level trough will move slowly S/SW along the TX coast, around the eastern periphery of the upper ridge centered over the western CONUS, during the period. The deterministic runs predict the upper ridge to build eastward somewhat Tuesday night and likely contribute to the decrease in PWAT values over the CWA.
The main weather feature on the maps to be concerned with in the short term is an incoming cold front, that will be poised across the upper Great Lakes region and down into the central Plains by 12Z Tuesday.
High pressure will strengthen during the afternoon into Tuesday. High pressure creates subsidence at night, which means air is forced down towards the surface, which will allow smoke to settle into valleys.
1212 PM EDT Mon Sep 6 2021 Mainly dry weather and seasonable temperatures are expected through Tuesday under building high pressure.
Faintly cooler daytime temperatures are forecast tomorrow afternoon due to an increase of cloud cover and precipitation chances.
Stalled front to the northwest and high pressure to the southeast will continue light southwest flow. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s at inland spots and in the mid 70s along the coast.
216 PM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021 An extremely quiet weather pattern will persist through the middle of the week as substantial upper-level ridging becomes established across the western CONUS w/ a 596-597 dam high centered across the Great Basin.
327 PM EDT Mon Sep 6 2021 High pressure is building over the area, bringing dry conditions and seasonable temperatures this afternoon.
Currently, strong mid level S/WV pushing east across south central Canada this afternoon, with an associated frontal boundary moving across the High Plains towards the western Dakotas. Cooler on Tuesday with highs in the 70s, with a breezy northwest wind through the day. Afternoon percent humidity will range from the low 30s east to low 20s west.
The higher POPs should remain across our eastern CWA, but given the increased low level moisture/broad weak diffluent flow aloft/progs of decent CAPEs there is a good possibility of moderate/heavy downpours with some of the stronger storms for the entire area. Tomorrow's POPs will be on the low side (~20%) from perhaps the seabreeze/any weak outflows.
934 AM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021 A strong upper level high will bring another very warm and dry day. Current forecast for high temperatures in the lower to mid 90s over northeast Colorado and sunny skies is still on track. An upper level high will remain over the Great Basin with dry northwest flow aloft over the area. This will lead to highs in the lower to mid 90s across nern CO.
214 PM EDT Mon Sep 6 2021 High pressure is building over the area, bringing dry conditions and seasonable temperatures this afternoon.
Previous discussion: Tail end of a trough moving through Canada today will drag a dry cold front through northeast Montana this afternoon. For the rest of the week the main story will be a large dome of High Pressure centered over Utah. After a cooler day Tuesday under northwesterly flow from the departing Canadian trough, temperatures once again will rise up above normal as the ridge flexes northward.
146 PM EDT Mon Sep 6 2021 High pressure is starting to build into the area, and will settle in temporarily tonight into tomorrow.
This will usher in much warmer air Tuesday, with an increase in winds through the morning ahead of the next frontal system.
(This evening through Tuesday) Other than some ongoing scattered mid to upper level clouds across southern and central Oklahoma and far portions of northwestern Oklahoma, clear skies and warmer temperatures are expected to continue through Tuesday afternoon. Late Tuesday afternoon, the upper level trough will begin digging into the Great Lakes region, and begin pulling a cold front through Kansas and begin entering far northwestern Oklahoma, resulting in strong northerly winds behind the front.
300 PM EDT Mon Sep 6 2021 A weak cold front will slide through the region this afternoon, stalling along the North Carolina-South Carolina border through Tuesday, allowing for a chance of rain to continue near the border.
Surface observations indicate that the cold front has pushed south of a Lake Charles-Lafayette-Baton Rouge- McComb line as of 10 AM CDT this morning.
1249 PM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021 High pressure continues over the area this afternoon and tonight.
The drier air combined with mostly clear skies and weak winds will result in a cooler night tonight. Similar weather is expected on Tuesday, though it'll be slightly warmer than today.
Brief upper ridging will move back in tonight which will return mostly clear skies for the area by early morning and persist into the afternoon. Upper troughing and an associated cold front moving in from the NW will return clouds to central Indiana beginning late tomorrow afternoon. A low level jet will form along the leading edge of the trough which will bring tighter pressure gradients and some gusty winds to the the NW half of the CWA tomorrow afternoon and evening. A line of showers and thunderstorms is also expected to form ahead and along the cold front.
222 PM EDT Mon Sep 6 2021 Mean layer ridging centered to the east of the Bahamas reaches west to near the Florida Keys. Temperatures this afternoon range from the upper 80s to lower 90s, with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. Cloud line downpours are beginning along the Lower Keys. Low level ridging will remain parked to the east of the Bahamas, with its diffuse western flank blanketing South Florida and the Keys.
Numerous showers and storms have already started to develop along the cold front and will continue to develop throughout the afternoon. The immediate concern is a line of thunderstorms along an advancing surface cold front which could produce some brief heavy downpours and strong wind gusts at BFM/MOB within the next 1-2 hours (18-19Z).
Skies are clearing to the far northwest with northerly winds in the low levels now moving into the Birmingham metro area. A weak cold front on the backside of the mean Eastern CONUS trough will slowly slide south today before stalling out tonight somewhere near the I-85 corridor. Temperatures will range from the lower 80s north to around 90 south.
At the surface, the related cold front has cleared the entire forecast area, and should continue to drift slowly southward, eventually becoming positioned from southwestern AL into northern GA later this afternoon. The axis of a mid level trough will weaken as it moves east of the area, causing the surface cold front to stall just south of the area before it dissipates completely.
(This afternoon through Tuesday night) The cold front that started moving through the region yesterday has progressed south toward I-10 this afternoon, and is expected to be a focus for showers and thunderstorms through this evening. A cumulus field has started developing in the vicinity of the front, as well as across the higher terrain from the Guadalupe Mountains south to the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau. A ridge over the western CONUS will become increasingly amplified and begin building eastward Tuesday, resulting in increased subsidence and rising heights over the region.
1239 PM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021 A cold front swings through on Tuesday, bringing with it the chance for some showers and gusty afternoon winds. Some model members try to saturate the lower BL and realize some upright convection, but this is an especially lower confidence scenario.
458 PM EDT Mon Sep 6 2021 Mainly dry weather and seasonable temperatures are expected through Tuesday under high pressure.
High pressure and dry air is building in behind the boundary for most of remainder of the area.
211 PM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021 After a cool start this morning, temperatures have warmed back into the lower 90 across northeast Oklahoma under mostly sunny skies. Hot conditions expected on Tuesday ahead of cold front, which is forecast to move into northeast Oklahoma around or shortly after 00Z.
1237 PM EDT Mon Sep 6 2021 A weak cold front approaches from the northwest today.
155 PM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021 19z surface analysis had low over southeast MB with trailing trough into northwest WY and cool front into MT.
101 PM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021 (Today and tonight) An upper level high will remain over the Great Basin today, with weak northerly flow aloft over our area.
236 PM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021 Upper ridging will continue to amplify across the Great Basin over the next 24 hours, while downstream a potent jet and trough dig out of central Canada into the Great Lakes. This will keep West Texas under weak northerly mid-level flow on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge. Light southerly breezes and lingering surface moisture will secure a mild night tonight with lows ranging from the lower 60s across the southwest Texas Panhandle and northwest South Plains to the upper 60s and lower 70s off the Caprock. Tuesday will bring more heat in advance of a cold front that should be making its way into the central Texas Panhandle by mid-late afternoon.
Late morning water vapor satellite imagery depicts a fairly amplified upper level pattern, with a 596 dm ridge centered over the Great Basin, and a longwave trough over the eastern CONUS. At the surface, low pressure over the northern plains/south-central Canada is fostering weak S/SSW downsloping winds over the central plains. These features will combine to promote an increase in 850-mb temperatures of roughly 5C, which will translate to afternoon highs around 8-10F warmer than yesterday, with mid to upper 90s expected under clear skies. Depending on how quickly the front can push south, afternoon highs will range from the low/mid 80s near the I-70 corridor to the mid/upper 90s near the KS/OK border. If the model solutions that depict a faster frontal motion verify, then the lower end of the aforementioned ranges can be expected.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop along and ahead of a cold front that is sinking southward into southern/southeastern LA and southeast MS. Surface observations indicate that the cold front has pushed south of a Lake Charles-Lafayette-Baton Rouge- McComb line as of 10 AM CDT this morning.
Today may very well be the warmest day of the week with temps on track to reach into the lower 90s most places, with a few mid 90s across Kansas. Late overnight tonight a dry cold front will push through the area, swinging winds around to the north. This front will also make for rather breezy and cooler conditions tomorrow. Highs tomorrow are expected to be around 10 degrees cooler than today, with south central Nebraska highs around 80 and north central Kansas highs around 85. The prominent and dominating feature of the forecast is the large upper level high pressure over the western CONUS. This high will keep us in northwest flow aloft till the weekend.
Upper flow is somewhat zonal overhead and to our north tonight as a trough exits the New England area and the next one begins digs across the upper midwest. However, on Tuesday as the second trough digs into the upper midwest, low level flow, especially at H85, begins to turn back around to the south and advect higher moisture back into the CWA. Expect highs in the low to mid 80s tomorrow.
/Tonight through Monday/ Main Points: - Breezy tomorrow behind passing cold front - Cool mornings mid-week - Dry through majority of forecast period Not much has changed with the forecast since the overnight shift.
The northwest flow will also bring in cooler air, with a return to near normal temperatures. High pressure settles in Tuesday night. The upper level large scale pattern will feature northwest flow over the northern plains as high pressure remains over the SW CONUS and low pressure spins over the eastern Canada/Hudson Bay region through the workweek.
Surfacing ridging centered over the majority of Arkansas and southern Missouri has left our area with another clear and warm day. Overnight, temps will dip into the lower 60s before reaching back into the upper 80s to lower 90s by Tuesday afternoon.
Starting late Tuesday morning and continuing through the afternoon the next cold front will sweep through the area.
The cold front, currently slowly crossing the Canada- Montana border, will swing through this evening. However, outside of a minor wind shift from the northwest to north to northeast, won't likely bring any gustier winds with it, and only slightly cooler temperatures for Tuesday (highs upper 70s to mid 80s from east to west, respectively). Vertz Western CONUS ridge will remain dominant initially, bringing us hot & dry days Wed/Thu. Some sort of ridge break down will occur Fri/Sat. Pacific trof is expected to split as it moves inland, and current operational models and ensembles display plenty of spread with its impacts in our region. so this suggests cooler temps once we get past Sun. Expect warmer than normal conditions until then.
The remainder of the forecast is rather benign as the western states ridge of hot high pressure slowly traverses the region from west to east.
138 PM PDT Mon Sep 6 2021 Mostly cooler west of the mountains and not as hot in the lower deserts through Tuesday.
In the low levels, an associated cold front will advance through the northern Plains tonight and through the mid MO Valley on Tuesday. In regard to the cold front, latest RAP/HRRR forecasts suggest that the boundary will move into our northwest counties by 10z (5 AM Tuesday) before reaching the Omaha and Lincoln areas by 13z (8 AM).
Fog has dispersed this morning allowing for clear skies and current temperatures in the low 70s. Temperatures will increase this afternoon and areas across the Mid-South should see highs in the low to mid 80s.
1129 AM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021 The Labor Day holiday will be dry and warm across the Western Slope as a strong 597 dam ridge continues to dominate the Great Basin. Tuesday will be more of the same as the high only continues to strengthen with its axis extending north into western Canada while its center drifts slightly east over Utah.
Should be a beautiful day with some drier air moving in from the north, and afternoon highs in the low 80s. CD Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 86 68 87 65 / 10 20 10 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 86 68 87 63 / 0 20 10 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 60 85 67 87 61 / 0 10 10 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 85 64 84 61 / 0 10 10 50 30.
As the trough passes, it will do little more than bring some mid/high clouds and a wind shift out of the north.
339 PM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021 The latest surface analysis places a cold front south of our area allowing for clear skies.