Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper level ridge continues to build across the northern Rockies into the northern plains. Upper ridge shifts eastward tonight, with low level thermal ridge located across the forecast area. Upper trof crosses the northern plains Monday, with cold front dropping through forecast area.
High Plains lee troughing will continue through the overnight.
The high will shift east and settle over the area tonight into Monday. Most guidance forecasts easterly or southeasterly flow advecting warmer 925 mb temperatures in northern Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee during the day on Monday.
606 PM EST Sun Nov 26 2017 High pressure will push across region providing for dry conditions into the middle of the work week.
Dry westerly flow and surfacr ridging will be in control. Surface ridging will keep winds light, less than 10kts.
Winds will lessen quickly late this afternoon into the evening hours, as an area of high pressure moves east into the Tennessee Valley. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected near the TN river and larger bodies of water (35 to 40 degrees). Most guidance forecasts easterly or southeasterly flow advecting warmer 925 mb temperatures in northern Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee during the day on Monday.
716 PM EST Sun Nov 26 2017 High pressure builds back in from the west tonight through Monday.
A second ridge of high pressure moves over the area tonight. The next low pressure system moves over south central Canada and the plains Monday. We will reside in the warm sector of the low where high temps should get into the low 60s. Local climatology suggests we could be a few degrees warmer, but I'm unsure how deeply we will mix and warm. JEE 223 PM CST The warmth continues Monday night followed by a cold front. The thermal ridge moves overhead Monday night, and temperatures will rise or remain in the 50s for much of the night. Gusty winds to 30- 35 MPH will accompany the warmer air.
901 PM EST Sun Nov 26 2017 High pressure builds back in from the west tonight through Monday.
A stronger lee trough will bring gusty winds to 23 KTS at KABI and KSJT mid morning through the afternoon. /issued 232 PM CST Sun Nov 26 2017/ (Tonight and Monday) An upper trough will move onshore along the West Coast tonight, then move east across the Intermountain West and Great Basin region on Monday. Temperatures will be warmer tonight, with lows in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees. A strengthening lee trough will result in breezy south winds developing on Monday, with gusts 20 to 25 mph. Two cold fronts will move across West Central Texas this week.
1032 PM EST Sun Nov 26 2017 High pressure will build overhead tonight through Monday bringing dry weather to our region. A series of high pressure areas are expected to bring dry and mild weather through the upcoming week. There was quite a variability in temperatures this evening as high pressure was building in from the Tennessee Valley. Dew points ranged from 15-20 in the NW Piedmont into the lower 30s over the Coastal Plain. High pressure moves directly overhead on Monday and mid-level flow becomes more zonal allowing a warming trend to commence. This will bring high temperatures up into the low 60s in most locations as skies once again are expected to remain clear.
909 PM EST Sun Nov 26 2017 High pressure will lead to dry weather and a warming trend through the early part of the week. High pressure continues to dominate as it slowly shifts across the Appalachians to our south.
345 PM MST Sun Nov 26 2017 It was another mild afternoon across eastern Utah and western Colorado today as a strong, dirty ridge of high pressure remained situated overhead. The ridge axis will be shifted to the east on Monday as a closed Pacific low digs into the southwestern CONUS. This will allow for some breezy conditions ahead of an approaching cold front during the afternoon hours, especially in northwest Colorado where gusts could exceed 30mph in the valleys and 50mph in the higher elevations. The aforementioned Pacific trough looks to just barely hold on to its cutoff low as it moves into the Four Corners region Monday evening.
Gradual WAA becomes more pronounced into Monday with 850/925 southwest winds resulting in thermal ridge axis leaning into the area. SE component more pronounced there with lake temps in the 40s should keep a cooler regime in place.
High pressure will then build and bring drier weather to the area.
/issued 158 PM CST Sun Nov 26 2017/ Upper ridge centered over Mexico continue to dominate the wx pattern however the next upper trough will move ashore early Monday.
Short term is dominated by high pressure retreating to the south and warm advection with the southwesterly winds.
Southerly winds tonight should help to keep the temperatures warmer than last night and the current forecast has this covered. The southerly flow is expected to increase across the area on Monday as stronger low pressure tracks well to our north. Short term is dominated by high pressure retreating to the south and warm advection with the southwesterly winds.
530 PM CST Sun Nov 26 2017 The end of the weekend continues the trend of quiet weather that has dominated the region lately, with light southwest winds helping lift afternoon highs into the low 60s this afternoon. Looking at the larger picture, the warming winds we have today will persist through Monday as a trough moves across the West Coast, inducing a quickly adjustment in the upper level flow across the Central Plains from the northwest to the southwest, helping reinforce the southwest surface winds.
311 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Upper ridge over the Ohio Valley weakens today, with increasing heat and humidity, and mainly scattered afternoon mountain storms. Thursday, strengthening upper ridge and warmer low level temperatures should result in temperatures a few degrees warmer. Weak High pressure will gradually shift southward but continuing to pump warm air and moisture up over the region.
222 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 High pressure will keep the area mostly dry into Thursday, with clear skies tonight and patchy fog, and mostly sunny skies on Thursday. WNW flow aloft and weak high pressure near the surface controlling our weather in the near term. Still some evidence of a surface trof and upper wave in the south and east so isolated convection a possibility over the NEPA zones into tomorrow.
The mid/upper low across North Carolina will move south and be just offshore the southeast Ga coast by late afternoon. Slightly drier air will move into much of the area around around the upper low. mid level impulses and a cold pocket will rotate south around the low and be across the eastern half of the region during the afternoon which will coincide with daytime heating. Given the added lift from the upper low and drier air aloft.
However at the low levels have a boundary moving in and probably enough to trigger a few storms. By mid to late morning, surface based instability will begin development and the warm front will begin working north into the southern Red River valley. Many CAMs suggest this development will eventually collide with warm front forcing in the central valley, yielding thunderstorm activity strengthening into the strong to severe discrete cells and eventually a complex of storms moving southeast through the southern Red River valley in the afternoon.
/issued 907 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017/ Broad deep layer ridging over the Atlantic will reach across much of the Gulf of Mexico today. This will provide a prevailing light flow in the lower levels and abundant moisture. Relaxed high pressure ridges across the waters from the Atlantic today with light winds and seas.
Mid-level ridging settling over the Southern Plains and high pressure over the Gulf will provide the backdrop for a general decrease in convective potential over the next 24 hours.
Ridging settling over the Southern Plains and high pressure over the Gulf will provide the backdrop for a general decrease in convective potential over the next 24 hours.
Aloft - A ridge sprawls across the southwest and south-central CONUS and the western Gulf of Mexico. A trough along the eastern seaboard this afternoon slides southward tonight then cuts-off into a low off the SC/GA/FL coast. In response Atlantic ridging initially reaching through the Florida straits. At the surface - A broad and relaxed ridge resides across the Gulf of Mexico and FL from the Atlantic. An upper trough stationary along the eastern seaboard will close off and migrate westward over north Florida and along the gulf coast states through Wednesday.
Surface dew point in the mid 50s with temperatures in the lower 90s have been able to provide mixed layer instability values around 1000 J/kg within this moisture plume. Upper level high pressure remains over Kansas and Oklahoma extending westward through the desert Southwest with monsoonal moisture shunted westward to Utah and Arizona. A weakness on the southwest edge of the high is allowing for some shower development on the mountains of West Texas, but this activity should stay well away from the forecast area.
A mainly dry cold front will push through western Montana and north-central Idaho tomorrow. This front will bring slightly cooler temperatures to the region for the rest of the week, however it will also bring gusty west-southwest winds up to 30-35mph to the region.
12z GFS and NAM models are indicating a lack of robust instability across our south, as MLCAPE values range between 300 to 700 J/kg, and the axis of the highest instability looks to remain to the south. My suspicion is that the majority of the strongest thunderstorms will remain to our south where the higher instability will remain. Some chances of showers and storms will linger over northwest Wisconsin during the early morning hours Thursday before an area of high pressure moves in and takes control, bringing mostly sunny skies across the Northland. High temperatures Thursday will reach to near or above average, with highs in the upper 70s over the Minnesota Arrowhead and the lower to mid 80s elsewhere.
136 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Upper ridge over the Ohio Valley weakens today, with increasing heat and humidity, and mainly scattered afternoon mountain storms. Models have upper ridge over the Ohio Valley weakening a bit this period, with some increase in moisture and humidity. So although we cannot rule out a stray pop up storm this afternoon in the low lands, model soundings suggest not enough moisture and stability to include pops in the lowlands this afternoon. For the mountains, we expect a decrease in afternoon convection, as remnant of Mid Atlantic upper trough shifts east and we lose the better moist low level southeast upslope flow against the mountains.
The overall weather pattern will not change much going into Thursday as a weak trough offshore slowly lifts out to our north. Interior temperatures will start to rebound on Fri and then increase 10 to 15F above normal for the weekend as an upper level ridge builds over the region.
Monsoonal moisture will infringe upon the region beginning tonight as a cold front works into the Pacific Northwest. Wyatt/Huston Weak trough moving through tomorrow will kick up the wind in exposed higher elevations, enough so that, if fuels at the higher elevations were receptive, it would be a critical weather day. The weak trough will bring up some moisture for the southeast corner of the Caribou-Targhee NF and surrounding BLM lands.
224 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Subtropical moisture is edging nwd today and this will accelerate tonight into Thursday as the ridge expands nwd and a surge of associated low to mid level moisture lifts nwd from UT and CO. Back to tonight's surge: Dew points have risen in the last 24 hours to the south from a few degrees to as much as 6-8 degrees and this higher pw air (around an inch) is headed nwd.
Weak trough passing across the Pacific northwest has brought dry southwest flow aloft and a return to near normal temperatures across northern California. As trough across the Pacific northwest continues to slide northeastward, southwest flow aloft will remain with subtle rising heights as upper level high pressure continues to dominate the forecast.
313 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Hot and humid weather will persist as an upper level ridge builds across the Mid Mississippi Valley.
Issued by National Weather Service MISSOULA MT 305 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017 A weak disturbance moving through the ridge may spark a few thunderstorms along the Hi-Line late tonight into Thursday morning.
1157 AM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Current surface map places high pressure across Minnesota. Stationary front located across northern Nebraska into Wyoming with area of low pressure along the front in southern Montana. As surface sets up near Black Hills this afternoon, thunderstorms expected to develop around the Hills and expand eastward along the warm front. Moisture pooling along the warm front will provide plenty of instability, with MLCAPE of 3000+ J/KG from the Black Hills into central South Dakota.
338 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Hot dome of high pressure aloft remains centered over the Central Plains with strong zonal flow over the Northern plains. Otherwise, a slow moving front extends east across eastern South Dakota from low pressure centered over southwestern South Dakota. The ongoing MCS has complicated the surface pattern slightly, but as the low continues to slowly sink south, convection continues to bubble over south central SD.
The first is up along I-80, where the southern periphery of some lift from a short wave trough passing Lake Erie is interacting with the higher dewpoints and increased instability south of the lake and away from the lake breeze.
215 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Upper ridge over the Ohio Valley weakens today, with increasing heat and humidity, and mainly scattered afternoon mountain storms. Thursday, strengthening upper ridge and warmer low level temperatures should result in temperatures a few degrees warmer.
352 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 High pressure situated over much of Wisconsin this afternoon led to clear skies through much of the day allowing temperatures to climb into 70s and a few 80s across the south central. Cloud cover will gradually thin, but do expect diurnal clouds to hold on through much of the day with the above mentioned cooler air aloft.
244 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Hot and humid conditions will continue across the local area through the short term periods with little relief in sight ahead of weak cold front across the Dakotas.
236 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Strong upper high currently located directly over the region will continue to dominate the overall weather pattern.
246 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Upper level ridge over the south central part of the U.
258 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 An upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to build over the region through Thursday. No precipitation is expected through Thursday due to subsidence beneath the ridge.
An upper level trough is still situated over the southeast United States, but it does not seem to be providing adequate support for widespread convection this afternoon. Very weak flow in the lower and middle troposphere will likely keep any typical afternoon seabreeze convection that does develop closer to the shore. High temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 90s, while low temperatures tonight will remain in the mid 70s.
Have still kept thunderstorm mention to locations north of Interstate 80 and along the ridges, where there has been a mention of precipitation throughout the day and still seems like the most likely areas to receive any rain. Warmth (temperature about 5 degrees above average) and humidity (dewpoints in the upper 60s/70) can be expected again today as overall subsidence under ridging aloft is maintained between Mid Atlantic States and Great Lakes troughing.
113 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Large scale ridge remains in place across the Plains, with main monsoonal plume further northwest than it has been the last 3 days. A few models show activity in the higher terrain in CO spreading east, but quickly falling apart before reaching our far northwest CWA. Regarding temperatures/Heat Advisory: There are some questions to location of possible pre frontal trough axis near our north, but even then we are in line for another day of 100+ degree temps, and Tds should remain near our above advisory criteria in our north/northeast. Models are actually showing a slight upward trend in temps aloft, so we may be a few decrees warmer Thursday than today.
329 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Upper level ridge centered around the Tulsa area continues to be the main driver of our weather across North and Central Texas through the next couple of days.
303 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Large dome of high pressure aloft will continue to stretch all the way from the eastern Rockies east through the mid MS River Valley. The H50 ridge will also serve to cap the atmosphere, so do not even expect the normal pop up of thunderstorms during the heat of the day.
Hot and dry conditions will continue through tomorrow as an upper level high sits above the Plains with a dome of high pressure east of the CWA towards the surface. A trough of low pressure will be found across portions of eastern Colorado and western Kansas.
244 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Main challenge is how many ways to say HOT! The upper ridge will hold sway over the area through the end of the week with the low levels continuing to gradually warm day over day.
130 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Hot and humid weather will persist as an upper level ridge builds across the Mid Mississippi Valley.
The High pressure over the plains currently dominates the weather map with a low pressure/vorticity max across the Carolinas and the next trough riding up and over the ridge in the Pacific Northwest. This high pressure will also lead to a slow warm up today and tomorrow.
Temperatures this afternoon manage to get up into the low 90s along the coast to the mid 90s across our inland zones. a large dome of high pressure centered across the central United States was allowing temperatures to soar up into the low to mid 100's across northern Nebraska with strong subsidence resulting in no chance of rain to cool those unfortunate souls off. Our county warning areas is on the fringe of the high pressure ridge spreading across our northern areas. We do expect to see the high pressure ridge sinking a little further south on Thursday which may limit thunderstorm activity especially across northern areas.
Upper level high preesure remains over Kansas and Oklahoma extending westward through the desert Southwest with monsoonal moisture shunted westward to Utah and Arizona. A weakness on the southwest edge of the high is allowing for some shower development on the mountains of West Texas, but this activity should stay well away from the forecast area.
558 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Main challenge is how many ways to say HOT! The upper ridge will hold sway over the area through the end of the week with the low levels continuing to gradually warm day over day.
314 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 High pressure will keep the area mostly dry into Thursday, with clear skies tonight and patchy fog, and mostly sunny skies on Thursday. WNW flow aloft and weak high pressure near the surface controlling our weather in the near term. Still some evidence of a surface trof and upper wave in the south and east so isolated convection a possibility over the NEPA zones into tomorrow.
116 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 VFR conditions to prevail throughout the 18Z TAF pd, as an upper level ridge of high pressure remains in control of our weather pattern.
331 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 High pressure gives way to a weak cold front moving in this afternoon into northern New York and into Vermont this evening bringing with it with isolated showers and thunderstorms.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Mid-level ridging settling over the Southern Plains and high pressure over the Gulf will provide the backdrop for a general decrease in convective potential over the next 24 hours. Overnight low temperatures will range from the mid 70s to near 80 while daytime high temperatures will range from the lower 90s near the coast to near the century mark out west.
/ISSUED 1012 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017/ Deep layer weak east-to-west trough was still located over the coastal areas at mid morning. The upper level ridge has drifted southward a bit as compared to yesterday and the PW field has drifted southward in response. Liked how the high resolution models keep the best chances along and off the coast this morning with isolated to scattered coverage mainly from the central areas southeastward this afternoon.
334 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017 The upper ridge aloft remains over the south central plains with weak southerly flow aloft in place across Colorado.
Temperatures will mainly follow persistence, but perhaps a degree or so warmer as the mid/upper level ridge over the Ozarks builds slightly eastward.
334 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Classic monsoonal pattern in place featuring a low pressure trough over the West Coast and high pressure centered over the southern Plains. Conversely, highs on Thursday will remain a bit cooler than normal due partly to mostly cloudy conditions and scattered to numerous showers.
256 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 A weak cold front will cross the area this evening followed by high pressure on Thursday.
141 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Large dome of high pressure aloft will continue to stretch all the way from the eastern Rockies east through the mid MS River Valley. The H50 ridge will also serve to cap the atmosphere, so do not even expect the normal pop up of thunderstorms during the heat of the day.
1202 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 An upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to expand eastward into the Ozarks region today allowing the heat to build. The hot spell will keep going through late week into the weekend with an upper ridge entrenched across the region. Afternoon heat index values will generally range from near 100 to around 105 each afternoon with the highest readings from southeastern Kansas into central Missouri.
306 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Hot and humid weather will persist as an upper level ridge builds across the Mid Mississippi Valley.
1217 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 18Z TAFS Upper level ridging centered over Oklahoma this afternoon may be contributing to a bit of suppression of the convective environment. Today through Thursday Water vapor shows broad upper antiocyclone over the central and southern Plains with a swath of dry air across north Louisiana and north Texas. HRRR shows PWATs trending lower today but they are maximized over the lower Acadiana region along seabreeze.
259 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 High pressure situated over much of Wisconsin this afternoon led to clear skies through much of the day allowing temperatures to climb into 70s and a few 80s across the south central. Cloud cover will gradually thin, but do expect diurnal clouds to hold on through much of the day with the above mentioned cooler air aloft. Models suggest that a brief transition to zonal flow atop a mid/upper level ridge over the lower MS valley will give way to some amplification this weekend as the ridge shifts westward favoring nw flow into the Great Lakes. With plenty of afternoon sunshine, temps will climb into the mid and upper 70s near the Great Lakes to the lower 80s inland.
231 PM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017 As high pressure over the Great Basin migrates eastward, expect near-normal temperatures and morning coastal stratus throughout the forecast period. The air mass will start to dry out as southwest flow aloft develops between an upper-level trough entering the Pacific Northwest and an upper-level ridge to the east. High pressure aloft centered over the Plains States today will slowly weaken over the next couple of days as an upper-level trough of low pressure off the coast of British Columbia cuts into the ridge.
Monsoonal moisture will infringe upon the region beginning tonight as a cold front works into the Pacific Northwest. Weak trough moving through tomorrow will kick up the wind in exposed higher elevations, enough so that, if fuels at the higher elevations were receptive, it would be a critical weather day. The weak trough will bring up some moisture for the southeast corner of the Caribou-Targhee NF and surrounding BLM lands.