Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
318 PM PST SUN NOV 22 2015 MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
As of 01Z, temperatures were trending slightly warmer than model consensus and the previous forecast over much of the area. High pressure will continue to build in overnight, but the center of the high is expected to remain to our northwest.
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES TOWARD THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND WEST TOWARD COTULLA WHERE LOWS MAY EVEN DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S. ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES FLIRTING NEAR THE FREEZING LEVEL SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING AND COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS BRIEFLY DIP TO THE FREEZING MARK TOWARD SUNRISE MON MORNING. AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FREEZING.
728 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD AS AN INCOMING CLIPPER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE KEYS AROUND MIDNIGHT.
AS THE RADAR IS BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP WITH VERY LIGHT REFLECTIVITY AMOUNTS OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT JUST ENTERING WESTERN MN. AS THE LOW LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY. AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT WARMER WITH GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 20S EXPECTED.
950 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
1046 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 THERE ARE STILL SOME CLOUDS THAT ARE LINGERING IN THE FAR EAST KEEPING TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOME OF THE RIDGES MAY GET INTO THE ACT AS WELL. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTH.
305 PM MST SUN NOV 22 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH MONDAY CHANGING UPPER WINDS OVER THE STATE FROM NORTHWEST TO ZONAL WESTERLY. WARM ADVECTION UNDER THE RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE LAST 24 HOURS. MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY'S READINGS.
830 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2015 1025 MB RIDGE AXIS PLANTED RIGHT OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS SO CALM CONDITIONS WITHIN THIS DRY COLUMN. THE QUESTION OF THE EVENING REMAINS AS TO HOW MANY SKIES WILL ACHIEVE THE FREEZING MARK AND FOR HOW LONG. HAVE EDGED MINIMUMS UP A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FREEZING. FREEZING FOR FOUR OF FIVE HOURS TOMORROW MORNING. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS THAT MANY WILL BOTTOM OUT A DEGREE OR FEW ABOVE FREEZING AROUND SUNRISE. AS THERE WILL BE A FEW RURAL LOCATIONS THAT FALL TO FREEZING. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH AFTERNOON TEMP READINGS ACHIEVING THE SLIGHTLY WARMER BELOW NORMAL LOWER 60S.
418 PM MST SUN NOV 22 2015 A CLEAR NIGHT WILL FOLLOW TODAY'S BLUEBIRD SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION.
/ISSUED 150 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2015/ NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS RELAXING THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING HEIGHT FIELDS DOWNSTREAM OF A SHALLOW RIDGE FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON MONDAY. SO ONCE AGAIN WE ARE SIDING WITH THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. THIS STRATEGY HAS ALREADY PAID DIVIDENDS WITH HIGHS TODAY AS THE MAV OUTPERFORMED THE COOLER MET AND SUPERBLEND OUTPUT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM OHIO TO THE ARKLATEX WAS PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES, LOW DEW POINTS AND COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE MID STATE THIS EVENING. 8 PM READINGS WERE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S, HEADED TOWARD SUNRISE LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
941 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD AS AN INCOMING CLIPPER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY EVENING.
405 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2015 The large scale pattern featured a broad and deep long wave trough dominating the eastern CONUS with upper ridging just off the Pacific coast. One short wave was sitting off of Oregon, underneath the broad ridge, while a stronger short wave trough was quickly moving east along the Aleutians. Plenty of sunshine and west to southwest winds will allow highs on Monday to climb nicely, ranging from the middle 50s in far northeast KS to the lower 60s in central and east central KS.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND SETTLE OVERHEAD AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. PRESENCE OF THE DRY AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE AND THE NEAR CALM WIND REGIME SHOULD PERMIT TEMPS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR A LARGE PART OF THE NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. /ISSUED 352 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
601 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK ALONG WITH A WEAK WARMING TREND.
DEEP UPPER TROF AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION HAS MOVE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. WITH THIS PATTERN THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WILL EXPERIENCE THE COLDEST NIGHT FOR THE FALL SEASON SO FAR WITH FREEZING TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS IN THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME LOWER SECTIONS OR COASTAL ZONES WHERE TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
910 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER MONDAY. BEFORE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MONDAY. THOUGH BUILDING SURFACE RIDGING TONIGHT SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER. LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST N OF PIT UNTIL INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WITH BUILDING LOW LEVEL RIDGING REDUCES CLOUD COVER.
Weak warm front has mostly slid thru our region and the main effect is to slow down cooling with its S-SW flow. A surface TROF will then move thru late tonight and veer winds further from the W where they will continue into Monday. Sneak peak at Monday shows sunny skies for many areas and thanks to W flow, should see decent mixing heights to where max temps will continue their warming trend into the low-mid 50s, save in the far north and northeast part of the region where mid-upper 40s are expected. Winds will remain light tonight has high pressure moves off to the east. Have stayed on the cooler side of the temperature guidance because of the strong radiational cooling.
THE REST OF THE AREA WAS QUICKLY APPROACHING FREEZING AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW.
842 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2015 Weak surface trof stretching from Minnesota south through central Iowa into northwest Missouri early this evening will pass thru our area overnight without much fanfare. The clouds should push east of our area after 300 am as the trof/wind shift pushes across central Illinois. Warm front current across the eastern Dakotas is pushing eastward, tightening the pressure gradient over us and causing a decent southerly wind. Have leaned more toward the NAM MOS guidance up there with lows in the lower 20s, but temperatures over the whole CWA should not move a whole lot overnight.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
534 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER MONDAY. BEFORE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THOUGH BUILDING SURFACE RIDGING TONIGHT SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER AS ANY REMAINING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS DISSIPATE UNDER THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE.
806 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.
908 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK ALONG WITH A WEAK WARMING TREND.
536 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2015 AVIATION DISCUSSION AS HIGH PRESSURE HAS TAKEN A FIRM HOLD ON OUR WEATHER.
1018 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD MID TO LATE WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SWING THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP WINDS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE MUCH WARMER LAKES WATERS. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S WITH WINDS AROUND 4 TO 7 MPH.
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PUT AN END TO THE RECENT RECORD HEAT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW NORMAL BY MID WEEK AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
643 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO SUBSIDE. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 27 53 31 58 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 26 49 29 54 / 0 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 26 49 29 54 / 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 25 45 26 50 / 0 0 0 0.
507 PM MST SUN NOV 22 2015 A CLEAR NIGHT WILL FOLLOW TODAY'S BLUEBIRD SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION.
631 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2015 HIGH PRESSURE PASSES MONDAY MORNING. WARM FRONT SCOOTS PAST MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MIDWEEK. COLD FRONT CROSSES TO END THE WEEK. THE UPPER TROF AXIS IS STILL TO THE WEST. THE UPPER TROF AXIS CROSSES TONIGHT WITH THE STRATOCU ERODING AWAY FROM NW TO SE. TRIED TO HIT THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS WITH SOME MID TEENS WHILE THE WARM RIVERS KEEP METRO SITES IN THE LOW 20S.
STRONG COOL ADVECTION BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH LOWS DOWN TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTHERN LAKE/INTERIOR VOLUSIA. THERE MAY BE QUITE A LOW TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS BREVARD COUNTY FROM THE MID 50S MAINLAND TO THE LOWER 60S BEACHSIDE. BREEZY N TO NE WINDS WITH CONTINUED COOL ADVECTION TEMPERED A BIT NEAR THE SPACE/TREASURE COAST COUNTIES BY ONSHORE WINDS/WARMER SHELF AND GULF STREAM WATERS.
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WEAK TROF INLAND CONTINUING TO DISRUPT MARINE LAYER WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS IN MONTEREY BAY. THEN INTERIOR WARMING TREND COMMENCES WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS ALONG COAST AND LOW LATITUDE PACIFIC DISTURBANCE EJECTS INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MAIN IMPACT FROM THE RIDGING WILL BE A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER.
BUT RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN HIGH DUE TO THE HIGH PW VALUES AND ABOVE AVERAGE ATMOSPHERIC EFFICIENCY.
POTENTIAL VORTICITY FIELDS ALSO INDICATING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WHICH. CONVECTION WILL BEGIN AROUND NOONTIME WHEN THE FIRST VORT MAX MOVES OVERHEAD FROM WEST TO EAST THOUGH WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS LOOK TO REACH A MAXIMUM FROM 3PM ONWARDS AS THAT TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE CLOSED LOW WILL ONLY HAVE MADE IT AS FAR AS NRN ID SO EXPECT ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THOUGH MODELS HINTING AT SOMEWHAT LESS COVERAGE. THE ONLY REALLY BIG DIFFERENCE WILL BE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL THANKS TO CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE USHERING IN WARMER AIR.
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY OVER EASTERN WA. WEAK RIDGE AXIS IS OVER EASTERN MT. AND EVENTUALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS OF OUR FAR EAST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AGAIN PER THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST. COURTESY OF NE FLOW DRAWING COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH.
328 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE DOWN INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONT NEAR OR JUST OFF THE COAST KEEPING AREA MAINLY DRY THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD.
651 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP MID SUMMERLIKE WARMTH ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WHILE INCREASING HUMIDITY AND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE INCREASING CHANCES OF SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NY DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGH THAT SHOULD BE ALREADY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY THIS TIME.
AN UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL IMPACT MOST OF UTAH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER ERN WA THIS AFTN WITH A W-SW FLOW OVER OUR CWA. ABUNDANT AIRMASS MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND A SHORT WAVE TROF ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW IS WORKING ON THIS MOISTURE BRINGING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTH THRU THU WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES ROTATING THRU THE BASE OF THE LOW KICKING OFF CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTH TOMORROW INTO THU. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A PEAK IN THE ACTIVITY WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES. THE SRN CWA DRIES A LITTLE LATER TONIGHT AND WED BUT BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AGAIN ON THU WITH THE TROF AXIS.
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND BE OVER CENTRAL IDAHO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
1235 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015 Today - Wednesday: Vorticity max which lifted out of West TX yesterday and helped generate the MCC that roared through east TX has attempted to merge with the NE/KS upper trough. Operational models appear to wash out the vorticity max currently over east central KS while allowing a separate h7 vorticity max to rotate east through the NE/KS upper trough and across northern MO this afternoon. A weak cold front/convergent zone is expected to drift south through the CWA tonight and will provide additional lift for scattered convection. Wednesday should be relatively quiet with low chance PoPs tied to weak convergence with whatever is left of the weak cold front.
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA RESULTING IN BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. APPEARS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA AROUND 262300Z. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL DATA SUGGEST SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE ROTATES THROUGH. MODEL DATA SUGGEST UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT FOR AWHILE DURING THIS PERIOD BEFORE UPPER RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
215 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN TOMORROW BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE PERIOD WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT SIDE JET STREAK EXPECTED TO LIFT NE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE PARENT SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO BE THE TRIGGER FOR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN TODAY WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD AS A SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH HIGHS EACH DAY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 80S TODAY AND AROUND 80 ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST/WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE EXTENDED. WHILE LONGWAVE TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. STRONG SW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80 RANGE.
AND THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COAST WILL CONTROL WINDS. WE EXPECT ONE MORE SURGE TONIGHT BEFORE THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NUDGES THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARD.
ANTICIPATE SCT PRECIP ACTIVITY TO START DEVELOPING ONCE READINGS APPROACH THE LOW TO MID 80S DURING LATE MORNING HOURS AND PERSIST UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. A PORTION OF THE EASTERN H5 RIDGE WILL TRANSITION INTO THE NW GULF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT WILL THEN FLATTEN THEN RETROGRADE BACK INTO MEXICO GOING INTO THE WEEKEND ALLOWING THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE NEXT TROF TO DIG INTO TX.
LATE TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
MODELS SHOWING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR A STORM LATE AFTN IN THE HIGHER DEW POINT AIR. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE WARMER 925MB TEMPS HAVE BEEN.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS SLATED TO REST FROM NORTHEAST WI INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BADGER STATE AT 12Z. INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE MEAN TROUGH WILL SLIP OFF TO THE EAST. ONE TROUGH IS SLATED TO MOVE WEST-EAST ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEK.
/ISSUED 1116 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/ HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES TO REMOVE THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AND SCALED BACK FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST THE MORE SOUTHERN WITH A LOWER CHANCE CATEGORY.
A few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will remain possible this morning as a short wave trough axis and remnant mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) move northeast across the eastern Ozarks. A short wave trough will then move east across the Corn Belt tonight.
A STRONG U/L RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND GULF OF MEXICO WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BUT WILL WEAKEN A BIT AS A S/W DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AND COMBINED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FROM THE U/L RIDGE WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BUT TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO THE LOW 80S TOMORROW. A SW RIDGE OVER THE CWA IN THE AFTN WILL THEN SHIFT EAST AND SW FLOW SETS UP. THE RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY POTENTIAL AFTN CONVECTION UNTIL SHIFT EAST AROUND 00Z TO 03Z.
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN IDAHO CONTINUES ITS SLOW PROGRESSION SOUTH AND EAST.
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH A SLOW DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ADVECTING WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
The higher CAPE values will be across the eastern counties. Temperatures should climb into the low 90s this afternoon.
259 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015 Primary wave rounding an upper trough to our north went through early this morning, however a secondary lobe is swinging into the region late this afternoon and this evening.
241 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015 Temperatures today are expected to be a little warmer than yesterday and near normal values for this time of year. A dryline is present across the Lower Trans Pecos, eastern Permian Basin, and Western Low Rolling Plains. The NAM12 is showing areas in Terrell County with CAPE values up to 4000 J/Kg of CAPE by 00z today and good bulk shear values with the best values across the Lower Trans Pecos. The NAM12 is showing CAPE values of 4000+ J/Kg across the Lower Trans Pecos and central/eastern Permian Basin.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING THROUGH UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH AND EAST OF FLAGSTAFF TO THE FOUR CORNERS. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE PUSHING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK.
325 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015 12Z MODELS DEPICTION OF CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON HAS DEVELOPED.
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH AND WEST ALABAMA WILL GREATLY HINDER SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF ALABAMA TONIGHT AND LIKELY KEEP THE CONVECTION GOING WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE TROF AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO NORTH ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY AND THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-59.
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUCH AS THE RATON MESA AND PALMER DVD. LATER WED NIGHT AN UPR TROF WL LIE FROM EXTREME NWRN WY THRU UT AND INTO AZ. ON THU A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE WESTERN TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS CO. THE UPR TROF THEN BEGINS MOVING ACRS THE AREA THU NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE AREA DRYING OUT OVERNIGHT.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER UTAH AND ARIZONA MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE PANHANDLE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AND WITH POTENTIAL FOR SE MOISTURE FEED ALONG WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS NORTH WE COULD SEE TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING OF THUNDERSTORMS.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT TODAY.
WEAK 850MB COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH SOUTHEAST SD/CENTRAL NEB/NORTHWEST KS/EASTERN CO.
FREEZING LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH. PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE.
553 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015 BROAD UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WOBBLE TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WHERE GREATER CLEARING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. FOLLOWED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSMOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WHICH ARE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS.
WEDNESDAY THE SOUTHERN TROUGH WORKS INTO AZ AND PHASES WITH THE IDAHO LOW FOR A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT MAY KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING BEYOND MIDNIGHT.
COULD SEE A FEW STORMS PRODUCE SMALL HAIL THOUGH WITH THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWING AROUND 1500 J/KG MLCAPE VALUES AND A RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH LEE TROUGHING TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE WYO/NEB STATE LINE.
348 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015 ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS NOW LINGER ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 84/98 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND DEAMPLIFY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND FOR TUCSON AND THE LOWER DESERTS. WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO PASS NORTH OF THE AREA AS THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION SLOWLY FILLS ACROSS THE REGION AND THE SPLIT CONSOLIDATES NORTHWARD.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING LIKELY TOUCHING OFF A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN ILLINOIS. SO EXPECTING THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL DURING THAT TIME. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS DAWN. WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DEPICTED IN THE GUIDANCE TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
BUT THAT NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND TO FOCUS THE RAIN, WITH A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND IT DROPPING THE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND OUT OF THE 80S FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THE LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY FORECAST HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE LOW TOPPED CONVECTION THAT HAS FIRED UP IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY AROUND THE NOON HOUR. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING, THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD CENTRAL IL JUST AFTER SUNSET. THIS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY VFR CEILINGS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK.