Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
654 PM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022 For tonight, weak cold air advection as a mid and upper level trough moves across sern WY, CO and NM. mid and upper level moisture will increase across Nebraska tonight as the lower levels below 750mb remains fairly dry. Lows tonight based on the short term model blend in the lower to mid 30s. Thursday night, mostly clear with weak high pressure settling over the area. Lows in the low to mid 20s with the dry air in place and radiational cooling.
451 PM MDT Wed Mar 16 2022 Current surface analysis shows cool front well south and east of the region, with low pressure over south central Canada. Upper level analysis shows broad trough over the Intermountain West, with one wave over the northern Rockies and another in the Four Corners area. A mainly dry and mild pattern can be expected through at least most of the weekend as ridge rebuilds over the western US late this week and shifts over the Plains this weekend. The upper trough to the west will move east into the Plains through late Thursday, with the two waves merging into a stronger system over the central Rockies and southern Plains.
933 PM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022 The upper low has shifted to our east this evening, and all showers from this afternoon have come to an end as drier air is being advected in.
The Florida Keys are caught in a col like feature, between ridging centered off the mid-Atlantic coast and a cut off low sitting over the northern Gulf coast. Overnight, these winds are expected to become light and variable over the area as the low over the northern Gulf states slides towards the east and further shunts the Atlantic ridge a bit farther east. With light flow through the lower boundary layer though, boundaries are scarce, and forcing will be minimal.
636 PM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022 The next trough of interest continues it's dig south along the west CONUS and is expected to settle into the Great Basin region late tonight into early tomorrow morning. At the surface, a developing low is expected to become more organized over the Texas Panhandle by tomorrow morning and will become more wound up as its center moves ENE into eastern Oklahoma by tomorrow night, just ahead of the approaching upper low.
A long wave ridge will break to the east of the area later tonight, and the upstream trough will move in, pushing a weak front onshore Thursday. A weak warm front far in advance of its parent upper trough will move through Thursday night.
1004 PM EDT Wed Mar 16 2022 Dry weather is expected tonight through Thursday as low pressure tracks to the south and east.
Chambers A weak trough continues to move through the area. It will not be all that strong, but given the low freezing levels there could be a mix or rain and snow with these showers or maybe some small graupel. Ridging will be building in, with clear skies. Temperatures will be a little warmer, but only a few degrees.
The 00z upper air soundings from both Green Bay and the Quad Cities confirm that there is plenty of dry air in the low levels, so even very light precip seems pretty unlikely. Boxell (Issued 328 PM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022) Tonight through Thursday night: Southwest winds will become light tonight with a weak cold front moving through late tonight into Thursday morning. Thursday will be cooler in the 50s with winds from the northwest and cloudy skies.
Only other update needed this evening was to add in clouds cover for these showers, and adjust the lower clouds cover in the northeast. The low deck could cause temporary "soupy conditions" across the north, but gusty winds and elevated dew point spread will hinder any fog development.
732 PM EDT Wed Mar 16 2022 Dry weather is expected tonight through Thursday as low pressure tracks to the south and east.
630 PM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022 Light rain departs the area this afternoon and we continue with warmer temperatures. Areas under clear skies have seen their temperatures quickly climb into the low 50s in north-central MN, but cloud cover elsewhere will keep temperatures somewhat moderated in the 40s. Cloud cover returns tonight across much of the area as the low to our north migrates east and we receive some of the wrap-around moisture. Some very light snow/rain showers may be possible tomorrow as this area of low pressure exits the region. Highs in the upper 30s and low 40s are likely to continue this week, but overnight temperatures should go below freezing for most after tonight.
A well defined band of showers has developed in response to the frontogenesis associated with the trough. Also, the low levels are fairly dry across the southern half of the area which may delay saturation. The mountains near and along the Divide will have the highest totals. As a result some of the higher snow covered valleys may drop into the single digits or slightly below zero.
Short wave ridging has built in and is bringing quiet and clear conditions today. Temperatures are running a few degrees to several degrees in the northern Sac Valley warming than yesterday this time and we should see them top out generally 3-7 warmer then yesterday. Short wave ridging pushes east tonight and we will see increasing clouds as a short wave trough approaches. This short wave trough will push over the region during the afternoon tomorrow.
Current surface analysis shows cool front well south and east of the region, with low pressure over south central Canada. Upper level analysis shows broad trough over the Intermountain West, with one wave over the northern Rockies and another in the Four Corners area. A mainly dry and mild pattern can be expected through at least most of the weekend as ridge rebuilds over the western US late this week and shifts over the Plains this weekend. The upper trough to the west will move east into the Plains through late Thursday, with the two waves merging into a stronger system over the central Rockies and southern Plains.
819 PM EDT Wed Mar 16 2022 An area of low pressure will cross the region tonight bringing another chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Tonight, the low pressure system, to our south, will continue its northeast path towards North Carolina. This will carry any remaining precipitation east away from the Lower Ohio Valley and continue clearing skies from the west, but as the clearing nears our eastern counties, return flow is expected to lift cloud cover into southern Kentucky from Tennessee. Tomorrow, with the low pressure system off to our east, light southerly winds set up over the CWA with west-southwest flow aloft. The light warm air advection and sunshine is expected to lift temperatures into the low 70s along and north of the Ohio River while areas to the south see the upper 60s to near 70.
950 PM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022 Southerly surface flow will remain elevated tonight as the pressure gradient begins to tighten ahead of the next trough quickly traversing eastward across the Four Corners region.
848 PM EDT Wed Mar 16 2022 Stacked low will continue to lift northeastward tonight with a weak attendant cold front moving eastward and further offshore. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than last night thanks to the fropa with lows ranging in the mid/upper 50s tonight. High pressure will settle across the area on Thursday bringing fair weather and overall pleasant conditions. A weak cold front will continue across the waters and into the open Atlantic tonight as a low pressure to the northwest lifts northeastward. Tranquil conditions and offshore flow expected behind the front Thursday as high pressure settles over the area.
This has resulted in a few notable changes that will be highlighted in this discussion: 1) As alluded to during the past few days, much warmer conditions are expected across areas along/south of I-70 where the slower forward speed of a southeastward sagging cold front will allow the CWA to remain in the warm sector through much of the daylight hours. This includes highs in the lower to middle 70s from KC to Kirksville, and even some of these values may still be a tad conservative depending how much sunshine is realized. Temperatures moderate back to above normal levels for the weekend as the system departs and upper ridging builds into the Central CONUS.
A weak upper level low and its associated surface system was location over the Deep South late today. Clouds will be slow to leave, but should give way to a good deal of sun during the day Thursday as ridging builds in surface and aloft.
429 AM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 An upper level ridge will offer warm and dry weather today.
A frontal boundary extended northeast of the low into the Great Lakes reigon. Temperatures remain very mild for this time of year with readings still in the mid 50s and dew points in the low to mid 40s across the forecast area. Some gusty southerly winds are expected to develop ahead of the low over the area today, with some gusts over 30 mph at times. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to spread east across the area on Friday as the low tracks east across the area. Highs on Friday will be closer to normal with readings in the low to mid 60s east of the low and from around 50 to the mid 50s west of the low.
Made some minor adjustments to cloud cover during this time period to account for this potential, although confidence is low to moderate as we are generally in a ridging pattern on Thursday. Only other update needed this evening was to add in clouds cover for these showers, and adjust the lower clouds cover in the northeast. The low deck could cause temporary "soupy conditions" across the north, but gusty winds and elevated dew point spread will hinder any fog development. Subtle ridging will build in behind the the upper level trough in increasing upper level heights. The warming trend will continue through the weekend as the ridge builds over the Intermountain West spilling into the western portions of the Northern Plains.
A weak wind shift, due to a pre-frontal trough, will begin decreasing winds by mid- late afternoon Thursday, with winds turning more northwesterly at MFE by 00z/6 PM CDT Friday. /issued 243 PM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): High pressure will remain in control through Thursday night, with southeast winds becoming breezy on Thursday. Thursday night winds will decrease ahead of an overnight front, and coastal areas will experience patchy to areas of light to moderate fog ahead of the mid-Friday morning passage of the cold front on SPI.
Upper trof will continue to develop over the southern Rockies this morning before emerging across the central/southern Plains later today/tonight as a negative tilt closed low.
246 AM MDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Water vapor imagery was showing a mid level trough working through eastern Montana and eastern Wyoming this morning, with a ridge building building into the Great Basin. Weak showers were lingering over southeast Montana early this morning but these should dissipate as the trough shifts into the western Dakotas, leaving behind a mostly sunny sky. Temperatures today should be similar to yesterday, with highs in the lower to mid 50s. Could see a few snow showers over the higher terrain but that should do it as far as precipitation. Highs again will be seasonal, with maxes in the lower to mid 50s.
249 AM MDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Current surface map places high pressure across the northern Rockies/high plains. Upper trof crossing the central Rockies is bringing a few showers to far southwest South Dakota.
Northern stream upper trough extending from southern Manitoba to eastern Montana early this morning will slide east across the northern Plains through Friday, while a southern stream trough develops into strengthening cutoff low as it ejects into the central Plains. The cooler temperatures will keep fire danger in check the next couple of days, though with northern winds gusting near 20-25mph today, still reaching the high fire danger category in snow-free areas.
A combination of southerly low level flow and upper level southwest flow will keep the warm temperatures in the forecast tonight with lows from the mid 40s to the lower 50s. The surface cold front then sets of across eastern Kansas late in the day. 50 to slightly over an inch is likely, with the higher amounts to the north of the low track, generally north of Interstate 44. This low will pull northeast of the area early Friday, with falling temperatures in its wake. The weekend is looking quiet with mild temperatures as ridging builds across the area.
Highs will climb into the low to mid 70s due to weak ridging ahead of an approaching trough. Rain will end late Friday night as the cold front pushes through.
1133 PM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022 The next trough of interest continues it's dig south along the west CONUS and is expected to settle into the Great Basin region late tonight into early tomorrow morning. At the surface, a developing low is expected to become more organized over the Texas Panhandle by tomorrow morning and will become more wound up as its center moves ENE into eastern Oklahoma by tomorrow night, just ahead of the approaching upper low. A comfortable weekend is ahead, with weak ridging over spread the region with above normal temps in the mid 60s to mid 70s. A cold front will push southward with increasing north winds behind the front today.
Tonight, the ridge axis will be to our east, with a deep SW flow bringing increasing clouds ahead of the next low pressure system in the Plains.
On Friday, expect warmer weather and lighter winds.
The center of the closed low was noted on satellite imagery spinning over north Georgia but some backside stratus still remains over the central portions of our CWA. The upper low continues to move well east of the area this afternoon. Residual clouds persist on the backside of the low, but are beginning to dissipate.
After highs mainly in the lower 70s today, a much larger temperature range is expected Friday, depending on what side of the storm system you are on. Highs on Thursday will range from the 40s northwest of the Illinois River, to the lower 60s south of I-70.
225 AM MDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Upper level ridge quickly moves through the area today.
Tonight Through Friday In the wake of a departing H500 low, yet another mid-level cyclone will approach the state from the west over the next 24 hours. Moisture return will be limited across the area Thursday as sfc ridging shifts to the east and srly winds begin to increase. Much cooler air will be drawn in behind the low/front on Friday.
This CWA will remain unaffected by this as high pressure builds in today.
157 AM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Low pressure passes south and east of the area tonight into Thursday.
355 AM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Rain chances will diminish today as low pressure pulls away from the area. Temperatures will run above normal into the weekend ahead of a cold front.
Our dry conditions will be short lived as a deepening low pressure system and attendant cold front move the area tomorrow. The trailing cold front almost stalls across the SE corner of our CWA Sat, so areas south and east of an Americus to Macon to Augusta line will see some light showers through Sat afternoon.
(Today and Tonight) Upper low, currently located near the Four Corners region, will begin to shift east into the southern Plains today with unseasonably warm and breezy conditions ahead of approaching system.
A cold front has moved through turning the winds to the north/northwest and allowing for cooler air to filter in. Despite the caa, temperatures today will top out in the low to mid 40s which is above normal for this time of year. The high pressure will continue to move in placing the axis over northern Minnesota by 06Z Friday. Currently the NBM does not have much in the way of fog and/or lower visibilities, but given the amount of melting we have seen over the last few days, the added moisture to the lower levels and an inversion noted on model soundings at around 900mb, I suspect there will be at least patchy fog across the region Friday morning.
331 AM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Low pressure moves offshore later today, allowing high pressure to move in briefly tonight and Friday.
Breezy northerly winds will continue in the Lower Colorado River valley today while other areas will see lighter winds and drier conditions as a weak ridge of high pressure begins to build into the region.
850 mb moisture on the west side of the upper low will move southeast and for the balance of the day expect cloud cover NE ND and NW MN. South winds will increase in the aftn and 850 mb temps rise to +2C to +4C range over E ND, so did go toward the higher end of guidance for highs (75 percentile) though not as high as it could get.
1239 AM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Light rain departs the area this afternoon and we continue with warmer temperatures. Areas under clear skies have seen their temperatures quickly climb into the low 50s in north-central MN, but cloud cover elsewhere will keep temperatures somewhat moderated in the 40s. Cloud cover returns tonight across much of the area as the low to our north migrates east and we receive some of the wrap-around moisture. Some very light snow/rain showers may be possible tomorrow as this area of low pressure exits the region. Highs in the upper 30s and low 40s are likely to continue this week, but overnight temperatures should go below freezing for most after tonight.
333 AM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022 A deepening trough axis has rounded the Four Corners region early this morning and is forecast to close off as it ejects eastward into the southern Plains through early Friday. In fact, point forecast soundings indicate a lack of saturation in the low levels until later this evening. As the upper trough/low moves east along the KS/OK border overnight, broad scale forcing for ascent will increase across our southern counties in southeastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa as the column finally begins to saturate. Do think the grassy areas could see up toward an inch or possibly two, but most roadways should remain wet with maybe a bit of accumulating slush as ambient surface temperatures remain near to just above freezing. The higher accumulations will remain along the KS/NE and IA/MO borders.
250 AM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Low pressure passes south and east of the area tonight into Thursday.
Lows tonight will struggle to drop below the freezing mark with clouds elsewhere helping to moderate temps.
With a cut-off low to the north and ridging situated across the Mid-Atlantic to the east, the Florida Keys are currently in a col region and winds are light and variable. Temperatures have remained in the mid to upper 70s overnight and dewpoints are lingering in the lower 70s, making for a muggy start to St. As the aforementioned cut-off low continues to lift to the northeast, deep-layer ridging will be able to nose its way back across our area. Gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes will continue to pump in dewpoints in the lower 70s, making for a toasty few days. High pressure will build in behind the front and winds will increase in response to the tightened gradient.
Once the fog dissipates later this morning, a sunnier and warmer day is anticipated with highs reaching the upper 60s to low 70s. Tonight, an upper level low will shift out of the Plains into the Midwest, with an intense 90kt H5 jet streak nosing into the Tennessee Valley. Although typically a morning MCS passing over us or to our south disrupts moisture return, wind fields and instability in our cwa, model trends and 00Z model suite are indicating the atmosphere will have enough time to re-destabilize for a line of showers and storms to redevelop along the main cold front during the late afternoon and early evening. These parameters would be enough for a supercell threat along the main cold front, with a risk for damaging winds, hail, and even an isolated tornado or two.
For the rest of today, high pressure ridge builds over the region keeping warm and dry conditions in place. Slightly cooler air moving behind yesterday's fropa will bring morning lows on Friday down into the low 50s along the Nature Coast, while the rest of us stay around 60 degrees.
At the upper levels, looking at weak ridging over Eastern KY today, while attention will soon turn to the next trough located over the SW US. Meanwhile, the upper level trough drifts eastward towards the deep south by Friday morning.
By the afternoon, expect some additional clouds to develop with a cu field along with more mid and high level clouds increasing as well ahead of an approaching cold front. /issued 950 PM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022/ Southerly surface flow will remain elevated tonight as the pressure gradient begins to tighten ahead of the next trough quickly traversing eastward across the Four Corners region.
145 AM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Dry weather is expected tonight through Thursday as low pressure tracks to the south and east.
- After a cooler Friday, temps recover into the 60s and 70s this weekend.
/JNE/ The center of the closed low was noted on satellite imagery spinning over north Georgia but some backside stratus still remains over the central portions of our CWA. The upper low continues to move well east of the area this afternoon. Residual clouds persist on the backside of the low, but are beginning to dissipate.
The upper low has shifted to our east this evening, and all showers from this afternoon have come to an end as drier air is being advected in. A broad, partially closed upper low will move across the Southern Plains into the mid-Miss Valley on Thursday night into Friday. A strong low-lvl jet will develop and accompany this feature in the lower Miss Valley into the TN Valley, as lift will be aided especially above 250 mb by a coupled upr jet. However, the main sfc cold front will still be to the west. will boundary layer recovery be possible ahead of the sfc cold front.
305 AM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022 06z data has a weak cold front running from northeast Wisconsin into far northwest Missouri.
147 AM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 An area of low pressure will cross the region tonight bringing another chance for showers and thunderstorms. Conditions briefly improve Thursday before a cold front approaches on Friday with another round of showers and thunderstorms expected late Friday and Friday night. High pressure moves in behind the front this weekend. Upper level low currently moving through central GA will move into the forecast area early tonight and then east of the area by daybreak. Main concern overnight remains the cold air aloft with the freezing level currently around 10 kft and 500 mb temp near -16C. Expect clouds to begin diminishing toward daybreak which will yield overnight lows in the low to mid 50s. High pressure aloft will move over the Southeast U.
1153 PM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022 For tonight, weak cold air advection as a mid and upper level trough moves across sern WY, CO and NM. mid and upper level moisture will increase across Nebraska tonight as the lower levels below 750mb remains fairly dry. Lows tonight based on the short term model blend in the lower to mid 30s. Thursday night, mostly clear with weak high pressure settling over the area. Lows in the low to mid 20s with the dry air in place and radiational cooling.
Strong downward forcing on the back side of the upper trough will aid in pushing stronger winds aloft down towards the surface and boost wind speeds, while downslope boosts temperatures a few degrees as well. Also extended the Wind Advisory into the evening hours a little longer, with a strong pressure gradient behind a cold front allowing wind speeds to exceed criteria.
529 AM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022 High pressure will exit to the east today. A cold front will cross the region Friday.
Ridging will quickly push in by this evening, and warm air advection will push temps up a few degrees to widespread 40s west of the Divide and 50s east of the Divide for Friday.
KEY MESSAGES - Cooler, closer to normal, temperatures return today and Friday with much above normal temperatures returning this weekend. An area of low clouds along a cold front will keep cloudy conditions across the region through the morning, but these should begin to break up toward the afternoon.