Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Southerly winds have picked up a bit during the day today as high pressure has been pulling away from the region. Clouds overnight should help keep temps near the SD border in the low 40s. Not much will change for tomorrow and tomorrow night, with decent southerly winds as a trough to our west strengthens, and a fair amount of cloudiness across at least our southern counties as the upper low moves from the Central Plains into MO/IA. Upper air pattern becomes more SW over the weekend as the region settles between an upstream trough and downstream eastern ridge. Locations with the highest chance for patchy fog will be KGFK, KTVF, and KFAR.
Some clouds/low PoPs wl linger ovr N AR into Fri as cyclonic flow lingers behind the departing upper low.
311 AM EDT Thu May 5 2022 An U/L ridge will build over the Florida peninsula today with increasing heights and stronger large scale subsidence. This will act to suppress convection and create much warmer temperatures across the forecast area this afternoon. A strong U/L disturbance will push across the Tennessee Valley on Friday with an associated U/L trough moving across the Florida panhandle. This will suppress the U/L ridge to the south and heights will lower over the Florida peninsula with temperatures cooling several degrees.
437 AM EDT Thu May 5 2022 High pressure extending into the area will get pushed northeast as an occluded front develops into the region late today and tonight.
1232 AM CDT Thu May 5 2022 A cold front was currently moving through the region which will bring MVFR CIGS and strong northerly winds within the hour. Storms are expected to continue to form along the dryline, especially close to the low in northeastern New Mexico. This low is expected to move east into the Texas Panhandle, resulting in the dryline pushing farther east. A cold front will push through late tonight and bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the Rolling Plains and southern South Plains. Temperatures will be cooler behind the front, with highs in the 70s and low 80s. Modest upper level ridging on Friday in the wake of a departing upper low will the trend to sharply warmer temperatures as heights and thicknesses increase.
A weak anticyclone resides across the Florida Peninsula, which is keeping winds locally light out of the east and southeast. Aloft water vapor imagery shows the elongated trough that extended from the Bahamas up to the New England States is moving eastward and away from the U. Meanwhile, back to the west a sharp ridge is now pushing into the eastern U. followed by the next potent upper level trough situated across the Central Plains. Weak anticyclone will more or less remain situated over the Sunshine State through the end of the work week. In addition, as the upper level ridge moves across, it will amplify the subsidence already in place and continue to limit precip chances.
125 AM EDT Thu May 5 2022 High pressure maintains dry conditions through late this afternoon.
Overnight lows will be in the lower 50s, with afternoon highs remaining cooler, in the 60s. High pressure ridge will move east tonight ahead of an area of precip that is moving across MO, currently. Total rainfall of 1-2 inches is possible through the period with the highest amounts along and northwest of I-55. The rest of the extended, Sat through Wed, a steep ridging pattern will develop with any major weather system remaining west of the area.
Temperatures across the Midsouth range from the low 60s in portions of northeast Arkansas and in the Missouri Bootheel to the 80s south of Tupelo in northeast Mississippi where skies have been clearer through the day. A warm front will surge north across the Midsouth tomorrow and another weaker, 30-40kt LLJ will move from southern Arkansas across the Midsouth late tomorrow. As the longwave trough approaches late tomorrow SRH will increase to around 200m2/s2 increasing the threat for supercells along and ahead of the approaching cold front. The highest threat will likely be in northeast Arkansas into the Missouri Bootheel. High temperatures Friday should be in the low 70s to low 80s.
1031 PM MDT Wed May 4 2022 Elongated trough continues to sweep east into Colorado and eastern WY. With the trough moving east, shower activity across central WY will gradually move east, with slowly clearing skies from west to east. Thursday will see brief ridging between systems, with highs in the 60s and 70s for most areas. The leading edges of the pattern change show up Thursday night, as the ridge is pushed east by the broad and deepening rough across the Intermountain West. The leading edge will bring more westerly flow to western WY, bringing a return of snowfall to the higher elevations. Friday will see a more westerly flow across the forecast area, with a short wave trough pushing across the northwest and west.
446 AM EDT Thu May 5 2022 Calm and mostly clear night across the Upper Peninsula provided by high pressure dominating the region. Elsewhere, many places should dip close to the freezing mark. A low pressure system is still on track to move through the Missouri/Tennessee Valleys today and tomorrow.
19Z water vapor imagery depicts the upper low slowly moving from the Four Corners into the eastern Rockies with a low-amplitude ridge behind it over the western CONUS. These should increase in coverage as we head into the evening and overnight hours as vorticity advects into the area from the upper low and provides an added source of lift, and Pwats increase to near or above the 90th percentile of climatology. Showers may linger on the back side of the low Friday morning, but should move east with clearing skies into the afternoon.
Latest satellite imagery and upper air analysis shows an elongated upper level low pressure system centered over southeast Colorado early this morning. As the upper low moves east, the trough will pivot around the southern and eastern quadrants of the low with an associated area of upper level difluent flow ahead of it. The upper low continues east and southeast tonight with any lingering light rain showers coming to an end in the Hays/Larned areas this evening. Upper level ridging builds out of the Rockies and over the central High Plains on Friday.
and Friday High pressure centered over northern Ontario brought dry and cool conditions to the forecast area early this morning. Hudson Bay high pressure will keep dry conditions in place through the end of the work week. Light winds are expected today and early tonight, but will increase out of the northeast as low pressure tracks south of the area on Friday. High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 60s both days, with 50s near Lake Michigan.
1039 PM MDT Wed May 4 2022 Current surface analysis shows main area of low pressure located over the southern high Plains, with inverted trough stretching north into central and parts of the northern high Plains. Upper level analysis shows low pressure over CO, with positively tilted trough extending from the southern Rockies into the central and northern high Plains. Upper low to the southwest of the region will move slowly east across CO and much of KS over the next 24 hours. Warming trend takes place for late week into the first half of the weekend as upper trough moves well east of the region and is replaced by a relatively flat and mainly dry ridge from the Rockies into the Plains.
120 AM EDT Thu May 5 2022 Calm and mostly clear night across the Upper Peninsula provided by high pressure dominating the region. Elsewhere, many places should dip close to the freezing mark.
For today, the weather will be fairly quiet with plenty of sun as a ridge of high pressure set up over the area. Main issue here would be the strength of the ridge.
Additional scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected today, as a potent upper trough moves over the region. Per deterministic and ensemble consensus, the overall large-scale pattern will feature a digging and persistent anomalous longwave western CONUS trough, and a broad anomalous central and eastern CONUS ridge.
Water vapor imagery reveals an eastward moving ridge complex, nestled between two cyclones, one east of the Bahamas and the other lumbering northeast through the Plains. Surprisingly, a meager cloud line has formed along the Lower and Middle Keys, despite the dry profile sampled by the 12Z KKEY RAOB.
Another significant round of energy moves in from the west during the day on Friday and drives a cold front through the forecast area.
With high pressure in control and light flow at the surface, calm winds are expected again overnight. /issued 311 AM EDT Thu May 5 2022/ An U/L ridge will build over the Florida peninsula today with increasing heights and stronger large scale subsidence. This will act to suppress convection and create much warmer temperatures across the forecast area this afternoon. A strong U/L disturbance will push across the Tennessee Valley on Friday with an associated U/L trough moving across the Florida panhandle. This will suppress the U/L ridge to the south and heights will lower over the Florida peninsula with temperatures cooling several degrees.
Mid-level (500mb) temps will warm to -8C to -9C (few degrees warmer than previous days) limiting instability. Favorable boating conditions will continue today as the pressure gradient and ridging remains weak, allowing for seas to be 2-3ft.
310 AM MDT Thu May 5 2022 Satellite imagery an upper ridge over our region with a large upper trough off the British Columbia and Pac NW coasts. The ridge will be aided by warm downslope S/SW flow to warm us well into the 70s today with a few locations pushing 80. The ridge axis will be sliding off to the southeast as a low amplitude trough and associated cold front work through the Rockies tonight. This may produce isolated/sct showers over our western zones tonight, mainly over the higher terrain. Highs will be a bit cooler Friday, but still above seasonal averages in the mid 60s to mid 70s thanks to downslope flow.
Most pronounced warming will be roughly south of highway 50, where occluded front will remain much of the day as nearly stack trough approaches from the west. As upper low approaches from the west late in the day, atmospheric column is expected to saturate sufficiently that a small amount of instability exists when lifting from roughly 850 mb. Upper low shifts east of the area on Friday, and while mid level moisture lingers throughout the better part of the day, lift appears to be minimized and therefore have dropped precipitation mention on Friday.
1018 AM EDT Thu May 5 2022 High pressure centered well to our north will supply us with beautiful weather today.
510 AM MDT Thu May 5 2022 08z surface analysis had weak ridge over the CWA and several troughs from central MT into CO. Could be a few showers over south central SD as weak forcing spins around upper low.
726 AM EDT Thu May 5 2022 Calm and mostly clear night across the Upper Peninsula provided by high pressure dominating the region. Elsewhere, many places should dip close to the freezing mark. A low pressure system is still on track to move through the Missouri/Tennessee Valleys today and tomorrow.
Today through Friday: A dense fog advisory remains in effect for early this morning in the lower Pine Belt region. An upper low is expected to move across the Plains and into the MS Valley region today through tonight. As we go into Friday morning, it is anticipated that the prior night's convective system will not leave much moisture and instability for remaining ascent with the upper low to work with.
514 AM CDT Thu May 5 2022 Today through Friday: A dense fog advisory remains in effect for early this morning in the lower Pine Belt region. An upper low is expected to move across the Plains and into the MS Valley region today through tonight. As we go into Friday morning, it is anticipated that the prior night's convective system will not leave much moisture and instability for remaining ascent with the upper low to work with.
/issued 334 AM CDT Thu May 5 2022/ The upper level low that brought our severe weather yesterday will twirl away from the region today. Weak surface lee troughing will develop from eastern Colorado through eastern New Mexico this afternoon. Short wave ridging will move overhead early Friday morning keeping dry conditions through the overnight hours.
655 AM EDT Thu May 5 2022 High pressure over eastern Canada will bring fair dry weather today.
06z data has high pressure over the Great Lakes with a storm system over the southern Plains. The strength of the high over the Great Lakes will force the next storm system well south of the area. During the daylight hours Thursday sprinkles/light showers will continue to slowly develop northward over time with the the possibility of the highway 20 corridor remaining dry. The upper low is forecast to be well south as well through Friday, thus instability will be limited for our precipitation processes. The GFS and EC are now in better agreement on the low's path, but are remaining different on QPF, but looking at the strength of forcing and instability (lack of), I'm inclined to advertise the lower end of the QPF range now.
Today through Fridayâ¦ With the advection of the mid-level impulse away from the area today and increasing subsidence associated with a building ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico, a mostly and benign dry is expected across South Florida today with the exception of an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible over inland areas. Given the lack of widespread convection and cloud cover as well as subsidence from the ridge of high pressure, the warming trend across the area will continue with high temperatures ranging from the upper 80s along the immediate east coast to lower 90s across much of the rest of South Florida this afternoon. As the expansive ridge of high pressure pushes through our area through late week, sinking air will enhance subsidence over the region which will act to suppress any upward momentum.
331 AM PDT Thu May 5 2022 Warmer into friday under high pressure aloft with night and morning coastal low clouds not extending as far inland.
900 AM EDT Thu May 5 2022 High pressure extending into the area will get pushed northeast as an occluded front develops into the region late today and tonight.
649 AM EDT Thu May 5 2022 High pressure extending into the area will get pushed northeast as an occluded front develops into the region late today and tonight.
Southerly to southwesterly winds should be steadily increasing throughout the day as a cold front makes its way towards the Northern Rockies. The cold front should move into north central Idaho this afternoon and western Montana by late afternoon into the evening. This cold front will be the beginning of a long period of cool and showery conditions for the Northern Rockies.
A weak cold front will ease into the area overnight and Thursday morning, but return flow will resume after sundown. (Today through Friday afternoon) KMAF VAD profiler shows a 40kt LLJ just off the deck this morning, surging the dryline north, where it has collided with an intruding cold front just north of KMAF.
Friday afternoon and evening will be somewhat of a cool, cloudy, and rainy setup as the upper low slowly moves across Middle Tennessee.
Temperatures across the Keys range from 85 to 90 with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. Mean layer ridging and weak steering will persist, with near nil rain chances and very little breeze relief to the heat and humidity.
This rain was associated with a wave of low pressure lifting up into the Ohio Valley. FGEN on the north side of the low at around 700 mb was providing the lift to help generate the rain. - Much warmer temperatures on the way A broad mid to upper level trough sets up over the western U.
(Today through Friday afternoon) KMAF VAD profiler shows a 40kt LLJ just off the deck this morning, surging the dryline north, where it has collided with an intruding cold front just north of KMAF.
Given the lower level temperature profiles which are much warmer and very moist, this strongly indicates that thunderstorms will be likely this afternoon and into the evening. High pressure will begin to build into the region Friday morning and allow the skies to start to slowly clear. This cooler air coming in is not that strong and as such, will only keep temperatures near normal for this time of year. By the afternoon Friday, ridging will be in firm control.
236 PM MDT Thu May 5 2022 Clouds are starting to thin out over the western half of the GLD CWA as the low pressure system aloft moves into the eastern Plains.
Behind this activity, we anticipate a high pressure ridge to develop bringing a return to hot and dry conditions.
1009 AM CDT Thu May 5 2022 As of 10AM, the cold front was draped from about Blackwell - OKC - Waurika, and a few thunderstorms have reached severe limits over central Oklahoma. Given the high shear environment and latest radar trends, developing storms today are tending to overperform with a report of golf ball size hail just coming in for the storm near El Reno. The base of a mid-level trough will be centered over the Texas Panhandle this morning, and is expected to lift slowly into the Central Plains by early Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move southward through the day.
239 PM EDT Thu May 5 2022 High pressure centered well to our north will supply us with beautiful weather through this evening.
The severe potential will be minimal this morning, with increasing chances possible later this afternoon as more instability builds in ahead of a cold front moving southeast across the region. A highly modified atmosphere should keep the severe potential pretty isolated in this area, but a few severe storms remain possible along the cold front. The cold front will push through the area by this evening taking the rain chances with it.
(This evening through Friday) Latest water vapor imagery has the mid-level trough centered along western Kansas, and the cold front was positioned along a line near Tishomingo to Madill. Overnight lows will dip into the low 40s across northwestern Oklahoma with lows near 50 degrees for areas south/east of Ponca City to Oklahoma City to Lawton. Breezy northwest winds diminish tonight with a corridor of variable winds progressing along with the ridge axis tomorrow. High temperatures for Friday will range from the low 70s over northeastern Oklahoma to the 80s across western Oklahoma to near 90 degrees for parts of our western north Texas counties.
Drier conditions are expected this weekend, with warmer highs in the low to mid 70s on Mothers Day.
1122 AM EDT Thu May 5 2022 Temperatures will warm considerably Thursday into Friday with increasing chance of showers or thunderstorms ahead of a cold front Friday night.
253 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022 Drier weather is expected through Friday night as the departing low pressure system slowly moves eastward. Plenty of low level moisture will be present across the region in the wake of this low.
204 PM MDT Thu May 5 2022 Showers and thunderstorms will move through the region tonight, as a Pacific cold front moves through the area. It will be a bit cooler on Friday, but strong winds are also expected over North Central MT. A Pacific cold front will move from west to east across the region tonight. Temperatures will be cooler on Friday as well.
255 PM MDT Thu May 5 2022 The leading edge of the next longer-wave trough will sweep across NW Wyoming tonight into tomorrow, bringing another round of light rain/snow to the west.
1122 AM MDT Thu May 5 2022 08z surface analysis had weak ridge over the CWA and several troughs from central MT into CO. Could be a few showers over south central SD as weak forcing spins around upper low.
This afternoon, a cumulus field is present over a good portion of the northern Panhandles courtesy of residual mid-level moisture wrapping around an upper low located to our northeast. 500mb inversion should keep a lid on vertical growth, so am not expecting any spotty precipitation this afternoon as the upper low departs. NBM 50th percentile lows are a bit cooler than the deterministic output, so have nudged forecast toward these values in accordance with expected efficient cooling.
Upper level ridging continues to extend into the Northern Gulf Coast today from an upper high centered over the southwestern Gulf. Subsidence from this ridge will keep conditions dry across much of the area today. However, guidance is not overly enthused with this possibility given the presence of the upper ridge and have therefore capped PoPs at less than 10%. Along the coast, it will be a tad cooler with highs in the mid 80s.
Today: Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a compact mid/upper low over Central Great Plains as it begins to pivot and slowly eject eastward.
An upper ridge originating from the Gulf of Mexico will continue an eastward progression, inducing synoptic-scale subsidence over much of the region. The week concludes with a cold front pushing across northern Florida as the parent low pressure passes to the north across the Tennessee and Ohio River valleys.
A cold front crosses the region this evening, bringing with it isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will move from west to east across the region this evening. Brusda 1155 AM MDT Thu May 5 2022 (05/18Z TAF period) Clouds will be on the increase this afternoon, as a cold front approaches the region by late afternoon. /ISSUED 300 AM MDT Thu May 5 2022/ Upper ridging quickly breaks down with a strong upper disturbance and Pacific cold front crossing the region from west to east late this afternoon through this evening. Flat upper ridging builds into western Montana behind the Pacific cold frontal passage late tonight, which will allow for winds to increase along the Rocky Mountain Front, with strong gusty winds expanding east across much of the plains Friday.
344 PM EDT Thu May 5 2022 Dry conditions over the are today as a weak front stalls over the area under high pressure aloft. By Friday, the stalled front will push north of the area ahead of an approaching cold front and upper low. Cooler and drier weather should eventually move in behind the front this weekend. Tonight: Weak high pressure across the Carolinas will gradually weaken and move off the mid Atlantic coast overnight. A warm front will gradually lift north/northeast overnight. Warm front will lift north of the area by early Friday morning with a cut off low and surface cold front moving towards the forecast area. This line will be well out ahead of the actual cold front which won't move into the area until just before midnight.
(This afternoon through Friday night) It was a pleasant morning in the 50s thanks to a cold front that pushed through much of the region overnight. An upper level trough which brought severe weather to our eastern CWA yesterday will move across Oklahoma and Kansas today, bringing potential severe storms to our east. We seem to have reached the end of our precipitation chances for the next several days as upper ridging will usher in warmer and and very dry conditions. Unfortunately, with these warmer, drier, and windier conditions, fire weather concerns will be increasing through the weekend.
Discussion: A warm front is located south of our area, and is nicely marked by the end of a CU field across N GA into the Plateau counties of Middle TN. Increasing QG forcing ahead of a closed mid/upper low will maintain some scattered showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms through tonight. A greater threat is expected from large hail, as midlevel lapse rates will be steepening and the WBZ height falling through the afternoon as the upper low approaches. Cooler weekend, then warmer and dry conditions for the new work week. Discussion: Wrap-around precip associated with 500 MB closed low will have greatest coverage north of I-40, less so to the south.
Uncertainty remains in how long the low level stratus holds out Friday morning. Otherwise weak ridging moves in aloft which should bring more quiet weather to the Northern Plains to end the work week.