Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Dewpoints are currently in the low to mid-60s across much of the area. An upper level trough continues to move across the area this afternoon and a cold front will be moving through later this afternoon. Storms are expected to develop along the cold front with large hail and damaging winds being the primary threats. The other concern is a small chance for some blowing dust as the cold front moves in and/or outflow kicks up dust and carries it. Temperatures will be a little cooler than today, with highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid to upper 50s.
The short wave ridge will move east overnight and some weak short wave energy will move across the area Wednesday. However, the atmosphere, especially the lower levels, will remain rather dry and soundings look to have significant capping Wednesday so the majority of the area will stay precip free for the short term period.
1258 PM EDT Tue May 17 2022 NW wind gusting around 20 knots is reinforcing cooler air across Lower MI this afternoon prior to high pressure building into the region. These clouds fade this evening in exchange for increasing high clouds ahead of the next low pressure moving into the Midwest by morning. Deep layer stability held within a very dry airmass will govern conditions today, as surface ridging drifts beneath confluent mid level northwest flow. Full insolation aside from some late diurnal cu works to offset a noticeably cooler resident thermal profile /h85 temps of single digits/.
Above the boundary layer, we have a decaying trough. This trough will only further decay as a ridge in the central U. Beginning Wednesday night, a ridge across the western Atlantic will build back westward across our area.
121 PM MDT Tue May 17 2022 Most recent surface analysis shows a low pressure sitting over the south central SD/NE border. Another low pressure system sitting over Saskatchewan has a cold front stretching down into the northern half of our CWA. Isolated storms/showers are expected to persist through this evening as the cold front slides through the forecast area.
241 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022 Early afternoon analysis indicates warm/dry conditions in place across the region with air temperatures mainly in the low/mid 80s and dew points in the upr 40s to lwr 50s. several degrees warmer than this morning. Otherwise, the strengthening sub-tropical ridge extending from the W Atlantic into the GOM will steer hot air from the SW Plateau/High Plains eastward into our region beginning tomorrow and continuing through the week. Temperatures should breach the 90 degree mark tomorrow for most locations, except for the higher plateau.
1240 PM EDT Tue May 17 2022 Low pressure will continue to track north of the region today, then exit across the northern Maritimes Wednesday.
Weak ridging will build into the region tonight into tomorrow, allowing for dry conditions mid-week. Expect lows tonight in the lower 60s across southeast AL and southwest GA to the lower 70s along the coast.
This will cause some height falls and spin up a small area of low pressure that is expected to bring some thunderstorms to the Northland Wednesday afternoon/evening.
134 PM EDT Tue May 17 2022 Seasonably cooler and drier conditions with significantly less humidity will prevail through midweek.
MRGL Risk from SPC looks to be in good shape w/ high-res guidance still showing scattered coverage of convection across the high plains in the 21z-03z time frame. A strong cold front dropping in from the north will bring much colder temperatures, as well as the possibility for some light accumulations of snow in the lower elevations.
1256 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022 (Today through Wednesday) Weak mid-level ridging between 700 and 500mb will continue to slide eastward through central Texas today. Despite this ridging, subtropical moisture in the form of high clouds will continue streaming overhead through the day.
Expect mild overnight lows, from 5 to 10 degrees above normal, to set the stage for another day of above normal temperatures despite a weak cold front pushing south and becoming diffuse across our area Wednesday morning.
Highs tomorrow will range from the low 80s north to upper 80s south.
As the mean short wave trof shifts eastward thru the FA in the morning, any lingering outflow boundaries will serve to help focus additional development later tmrw afternoon/evening. Upper 60s/near 70 dew points and 850 MB theta-e ridging suggests potential for locally heavy rain as well.
(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Much of the plains remains under longwave ridging.
301 PM EDT Tue May 17 2022 High pressure settles in over the forecast area as the low pressure system over the northeast lifts out of the area. On Wednesday, zonal flow aloft returns to the forecast area and the high pressure is displaced eastward. KAL Suppressing upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather pattern early in the extended, with near-record to record high temperatures as a result (see the climate section below).
245 PM EDT Tue May 17 2022 Ridging continues to sit mainly over us giving us neutral flow and an afternoon seabreeze.
227 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022 A surface warm front remains positioned over northern Missouri, extending east to central Illinois. Moisture remains focused on an elevated warm frontal zone, found generally along and north of Interstate 80. This has held down most hourly temperatures into the lower to mid 60s, but a few dry hours here and there today have allowed most spots to briefly hit 70 before another shower impacts them. To the south, partial sunshine and dry conditions have allowed for highs in the lower 80s.
In the out periods, the forecast opens with an upper level low riding along on the front edge of an anomalously large/cold/broad upper level longwave trof; moving into the northern plains and bringing some precipitation chances to the CWA.
The short-term will start with upper-level ridging in place over the entire Four-States region, with south- southwest flow at the surface. While overnight lows don't look to break any high-mins, they'll still be on the high side.
332 PM EDT Tue May 17 2022 High pressure will provide dry conditions this evening through the overnight.
Patterson (Issued 252 AM CDT Tue May 17 2022) Today through Wednesday: High pressure continues to build into the area from the north this morning, bringing a cool and clear start to the day. ) within about 10 miles of Lake Michigan, where early lake breeze development will keep readings in the low 60s.
Much warmer weather is expected for weeks end. Showers chances will persist into Wednesday night with sustained instability leading to thunderstorms possible as well with the approach of stronger forcing from a cold front.
Temperatures are running a bit warmer than forecast this morning. Given the mainly full day of sunshine, will bump up the highs a degree or so, with most locations making it to at least 80 degrees. The short term period will start off warm and dry around eastern Kentucky, as a ridge of high pressure remains in control of area weather. We will see showers and a few storms moving into the area on Wednesday, as an area of low pressure moves out way out of the central Plains. Tonights lows will range from the lower 50s in our valleys to the mid and upper 50s on the ridges. Initially, a cold front will be advancing southeast through the Midwest, with warm air advection occurring ahead of it over our area.
Exactly where this low and its associated warm front aloft situate is where our heavier rain will occur.
158 PM MST Tue May 17 2022 Temperatures will cool slightly the remainder of the week as high pressure relaxes over the region.
153 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022 Afternoon temps wee several degrees warmer than yesterday, but it was still decent with sunny skies and tolerable humidity levels.
As troughing sinks into the lower Great Lakes broad/fairly flat ridging pushes through the Plains. Widespread frost is possible, especially valleys and low- lying areas within the higher terrain. This should keep our southwest counties a tad warmer in the mid to upper 30's. Showers start to move in close to daybreak with isentropic lift well north of the warm front and continuous top-down saturation through the wee- hours of the morning. Turning Warmer with Fairly Active Weather.
Relatively calm conditions will continue overnight under weak high pressure.
Temperatures will cool slightly the remainder of the week as high pressure relaxes over the region.
A weak cold front late Wednesday will begin the cooling trend.
512 PM MDT Tue May 17 2022 Most recent surface analysis shows a low pressure sitting over the south central SD/NE border. Another low pressure system sitting over Saskatchewan has a cold front stretching down into the northern half of our CWA. Isolated storms/showers are expected to persist through this evening as the cold front slides through the forecast area.
/Issued 301 PM EDT Tue May 17 2022/ High pressure settles in over the forecast area as the low pressure system over the northeast lifts out of the area. On Wednesday, zonal flow aloft returns to the forecast area and the high pressure is displaced eastward. KAL Suppressing upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather pattern early in the extended, with near-record to record high temperatures as a result (see the climate section below).
Temperatures today ranged from the lower 90s inland to mid to upper 80s near the coast. /issued 245 PM EDT Tue May 17 2022/ Ridging continues to sit mainly over us giving us neutral flow and an afternoon seabreeze.
/TW/ Tonight and Wednesday: Warmer than normal and dry through the period. Morning lows will continue warmer than normal as well only bottoming out in the upper 60d to lower 70s.
Severe Thunderstorms possible across North Central Kansas Strong to severe thunderstorms possible early tonight northeast of a Garden City to Dodge City line as a cold front crosses north central and west central Kansas. Convection over the last hour has been increasing along a cold front which extended from near Tribune to Colby to the Nebraska border at 6pm. The area that appears to have the highest probability for severe weather between 7 pm and midnight will be north of the 700mb 11-13C temperature gradient and along/near the 0-1km that-e ridge axis that is currently forecast to Lane and Trego Counties southeastward to Stafford County. Highs tomorrow will range from the low 80s north to upper 80s south.
Cold front pushes south tonight, with winds turning clockwise to northeasterly as a result. The upper trough is forecast to track east into Oklahoma by 06Z Wednesday with a zonal upper flow overnight tonight transitioning to west-northwesterly to northwesterly upper flow Wednesday. Rockies will allow for convection to develop over the higher terrain and mountains of central and southern Colorado and also northern New Mexico.
841 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022 Other than a few passing high cirrus, mostly clear conditions will continue overnight as high pressure remains the dominant large-scale feature over the Deep South. Otherwise, the strengthening sub-tropical ridge extending from the W Atlantic into the GOM will steer hot air from the SW Plateau/High Plains eastward into our region beginning tomorrow and continuing through the week. Temperatures should breach the 90 degree mark tomorrow for most locations, except for the higher plateau.
916 PM EDT Tue May 17 2022 Cold front will move south of the area this evening. High pressure will build over the area tonight into early Wednesday.
1004 PM EDT Tue May 17 2022 A weak dry cold front drops through the local area overnight. High pressure settles over the mid Atlantic Wednesday.
Lows will mainly be in the low-mid 60s E to upper 60s to near 70 degrees. /DC/CR/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Wednesday: Warmer than normal and dry through the period. Morning lows will continue warmer than normal as well only bottoming out in the upper 60d to lower 70s.
210 PM PDT Tue May 17 2022 High pressure will result in well above normal temperatures through Wednesday.
The profile was warmer and less unstable. The one we can see right now extends from Flamingo, southwest across the Seven Mile Bridge. Boaters should note less clearance under fixed bridges. From synopsis, variable breezes will continue tonight and Wednesday as high pressure remains displaced well to the east of the Keys in the western North Atlantic.
Early afternoon analysis indicates warm/dry conditions in place across the region with air temperatures mainly in the low/mid 80s and dew points in the upr 40s to lwr 50s. several degrees warmer than this morning. Otherwise, the strengthening sub-tropical ridge extending from the W Atlantic into the GOM will steer hot air from the SW Plateau/High Plains eastward into our region beginning tomorrow and continuing through the week. Temperatures should breach the 90 degree mark tomorrow for most locations, except for the higher plateau.
Afternoon temps wee several degrees warmer than yesterday, but it was still decent with sunny skies and tolerable humidity levels.
-Glinskas PREVIOUS DISCUSSION Warm, high pressure has moved into the region from the west and pushed any lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms eastward in the Dakotas. Overnight Wednesday night, into early Thursday morning, the region weather pattern begins to change with a strengthening low pressure system from Alberta embedded in a larger, broader low pressure system which sweeps through most of the northern US with much colder temperatures. As the main low pressure trough spreads through the area, precipitation will become a little bit more widespread but not much in the way of accumulation.
358 AM EDT Wed May 18 2022 The deep trough will lift to the northeast and away from the Peninsula today as a mid-level ridge over the Caribbean raises north and expands into the region over the next several days, as depicted by the deterministic guidance.
An upper trof over the northeastern states which extends weakly across the extreme southeast states moves off into the western Atlantic through Wednesday. A modest upper ridge over the ArkLaTex region advances towards the area meanwhile but also dampens substantially, yielding a fairly zonal flow pattern over the area by Wednesday night which persists into Thursday. Despite the weakening of the upper ridge and a southerly surface flow becoming established, drier air generally in the 850-700 mb layer will be advected into the area which will be sufficient to prevent nearly all convective development. Lows tonight range from the lower 60s well inland to the lower 70s near the coast, then lows Wednesday night range from the upper 60s inland to the lower 70s near the coast.
A surface warm front remains positioned over northern Missouri, extending east to central Illinois. Moisture remains focused on an elevated warm frontal zone, found generally along and north of Interstate 80. This has held down most hourly temperatures into the lower to mid 60s, but a few dry hours here and there today have allowed most spots to briefly hit 70 before another shower impacts them. To the south, partial sunshine and dry conditions have allowed for highs in the lower 80s.
Mainly dry and much warmer weather is expected late this week.
328 AM CDT Wed May 18 2022 Although slightly weakening through the period, high pressure aloft and at the surface will remain in control of the weather across the region. This will result in slightly less humid conditions today, with highs warming into the lower 90s.
The same holds true across the interior central with Doe Lake and High Bridge RAWS at 26 and 29 degrees and SAW at 34. More along the WI stateline, temps have remained in the mid 40s with a high cirrostratus deck ahead of a weak low pressure system. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the northern Rockies and Pacific NW 12z Thu. This trough will move into the northern plains 12z Fri. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a deep and broad 500 mb trough over the western half of the U. with a ridge over the eastern U. The gusts up to 30kt should be observed mainly at the high obs platforms.
MRGL Risk from SPC looks to be in good shape w/ high-res guidance still showing scattered coverage of convection across the high plains in the 21z-03z time frame. A strong cold front dropping in from the north will bring much colder temperatures, as well as the possibility for some light accumulations of snow in the lower elevations. Winter arrives Thursday night with the passage of the cold front.
A cold front Thursday evening will bring small chances for thunderstorms primarily to northeastern zones, but it appears that the better chances for more appreciable precipitation will be well east across Iowa.
Mostly clear skies this morning with high pressure continuing to build in from the west. Flat ridging overhead today combined with WAA in the lower levels will allow temperatures to reach the low 90s across much of the area, possibly mid 90s in the CSRA. The warm front associated with it will remain well north of our area, which should focus convection further up the East Coast. Given the high instability, high lapse rates aloft, and deep shear, any storms that do develop will bring strong, possibly damaging winds.
1050 PM MDT Tue May 17 2022 Most recent surface analysis shows a low pressure sitting over the south central SD/NE border. Another low pressure system sitting over Saskatchewan has a cold front stretching down into the northern half of our CWA. Isolated storms/showers are expected to persist through this evening as the cold front slides through the forecast area. Strong cold front is expected to pass through Thursday afternoon, increasing the chances for widespread precipitation and a sharp drop in temperatures.
Afternoon highs will top out in the low 80s under clearing skies. An upper low traveling along the US/Canadian border will draw southwesterly flow over the region Thursday, bringing an influx of moisture. At the surface, a warm front will lift north through northern Iowa and into Minnesota, Thursday morning. The aforementioned low pressure system will draw a cold front through the region Thursday evening and overnight, bringing our next chance for convection. Significantly cooler temperatures arrive behind the frontal passage.
This high is expected to remain over the area through tonight and keep rather benign weather conditions for the CWA. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the northern Rockies and Pacific NW 12z Thu. This trough will move into the northern plains 12z Fri. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a deep and broad 500 mb trough over the western half of the U. with a ridge over the eastern U. The gusts up to 30kt should be observed mainly at the high obs platforms.
Expect mild overnight lows, from 5 to 10 degrees above normal, to set the stage for another day of above normal temperatures despite a weak cold front pushing south and becoming diffuse across our area Wednesday morning. A convectively enhanced upper trough skirting east-southeast out of the central Rockies will bring low thunder chances across northeast New Mexico and the western Texas Panhandle Thursday evening. Thursday itself should see strengthening mid and upper level flow as an upper trough digs into the Rockies. ) Another front appears will tease our area Thursday night, edging out of the Panhandle, but not getting a strong push as the upper trough remains positive tilted and southwest flow remains aloft.
Upstream, a compact upper level low across southern California will move south into northern Baja California today and remain across far northwest Mexico tonight and Thursday. We do not anticipate any convection that does develop later this afternoon and evening in the higher terrain of Mexico to make it into the western CWA.
While expected high temperatures will be up to a few degrees cooler than today's highs where measurable rain chances are present, they're likely to be within 3 degrees of today's highs south and east of there.
321 AM CDT Wed May 18 2022 The main cold front was located across northern OK into central MO. The main forecast focus in the short term will be thunderstorm chances across north central Ne this afternoon and evening, followed by much warmer temperatures Thursday ahead of an advancing cold front. Highs today from near 80 north to the low to mid 80s southwest.
Weak ridging will build into the region tonight into tomorrow, allowing for dry conditions mid-week. Expect lows tonight in the lower 60s across southeast AL and southwest GA to the lower 70s along the coast. Initially high pressure builds in from the Atlantic as the upper level flow becomes more zonal. Highs will continue to be above normal with values in the lower to mid 90s (80s along the coast) with lows well above normal in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
The broad ridge axis has shifted overhead and the old lingering boundary is pretty much washed out with current dew points running anywhere from mid 60s to right at 70 muggy degrees. Moisture increasing with a brisk SW flow in the low levels with some low clouds forming over deep E TX at this time.
The upper level flow will be a slight northwest flow today, with weak ridging setting up tonight. The fog should dissipate and the low clouds slide east after sunrise as a weak frontal boundary moves through. Decent mixing should allow for gusty winds to develop across the western and central portions of the CWA today before high pressure settles in this evening. Attention then turns to a low pressure system approaching from the west. The highest chance for severe storms is over eastern SD and west central MN where the SPC has a marginal risk.
Thursday will be the warmest day in the period as southwesterly flow aloft sets up ahead of an upper trough over the Northern Intermountain and Northern Rocky regions.
Other than a few passing high cirrus, mostly clear conditions will continue overnight as high pressure remains the dominant large-scale feature over the Deep South.
A cold front moves through the forecast area tonight with a chance of showers with the best chance occurring south of the Missouri River. Upper low moves into the area on Thursday with cooler temperatures and gusty west winds. Wrap around precipitation will move into NE Montana Thursday afternoon and night as the upper low moves to the east.
A low-level ridge generally stretches from the Upper Great Lakes through the FL Peninsula, though a low-amplitude mid-level ridge remains to our west. Sfc-850 mb flow becomes more southwesterly today as the low-level ridge centered to our southeast strengthens. Tonight's lows will be several degrees warmer than felt this morning, owing to warm/moist advection. By then, the mid-level ridge is near the Deep South and 850 mb winds are out of the west. Some spots could be a degree or two warmer.
The first round of rain should arrive in the I-64 corridor area late this afternoon, as an area of low pressure moves our direction out of the Great Plains. As the low moves to our north, the cold front extending from it will move into and stall out over eastern Kentucky tonight and Thursday. The period will start with ongoing warm air advection and upper level ridging building over the southeast CONUS. A weak warm frontal boundary should be moving northeast over KY.
424 AM EDT Wed May 18 2022 The upper trough will continue to lift out today while high pressure builds in at the surface, and westerly flow and drier air will keep POPs in the 20-30 percent range through Thursday.
Temperatures will be warmer Wednesday, as southerly winds develop in response to a cold front approaching out of the Dakotas. The warmer temperatures across Minnesota will allow for 500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE to develop ahead of the front during the afternoon, and most hi-res models depict at least isolated thunderstorms developing across central Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Deep shear vectors will be 40-50 kts and normal to the cold front, meaning a few storms could become supercellular and create at least an isolated and sporadic severe threat. Strong warm advection in the warm sector ahead of the low will create a narrow corridor of warm and humid conditions, with temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the 60s during the afternoon.