Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
717 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015 CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING AS RAIN SPREADS INTO THE AREA FROM SW TO NE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.
A BIG SLOPPY MESS AS A STATIONARY UPPER TROF OVER WEST TEXAS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE BAHAMAS HAS RESULTED IN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH LOOSE GRADIENT AND PRECIP WATER VALUES REMAINING ABOUT TWICE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IFR TO LIFR WILL BE THE RULE UNTIL THIS PATTERN CHANGES WITH THE LIFTING OF THE TEXAS UPPER TROF. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS HAVE BEEN TRACKING OUT OF THE GULF AND ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND AREAS OF RAIN. IN ADDITION SE TX WILL BE A BIT COOLER BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT OVERNIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL KEEP A MIX OF MVFR TO IFR CLOUD DECKS TONIGHT AND MVFR TO VFR ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY LIFT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE EARLIER FORECAST HAS STATED A SLIGHTLY HIGHER BET OF RAIN IN THE LOWER VALLEY WHERE A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE RESIDES. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIVE ACROSS TEXAS.
/ISSUED 332 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015/ WEAKLY CAPPED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH A MINOR BUT PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDER MAINLY BENEATH UPPER COLD POOL ON THE CAPROCK LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
732 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE CANADIAN LOW WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
706 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
724 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE CANADIAN LOW WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BAY AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE AREA.
SPRAWLING MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS FLORIDA WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS LARGE AND STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MEXICO REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING SOUTH FLORIDA WITH WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
846 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.
THIS FRONT WILL BE ELONGATED FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL CANADA TO A LOW TRACKING OUT OF COLORADO AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
/ISSUED 853 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/ THE WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AS THE WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE STATE.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES EARLY TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST EARLY IN THE DAY AS THE SOUTH WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING THE THE LOWER LEVELS MAY GIVE RISE TO SOME BRIEF CLEARING LATE MORNING, HOWEVER AFTERNOON CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BASED LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE 900 TO 850MB LEVEL AND SOME AFTERNOON WARMING. GIVEN A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE THE HIGHS WILL BE WARMER FURTHER SOUTH.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MOSTLY MVFR BETWEEN 03/15-20Z AS SOUTH WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KTS WITH WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVG NORTH INTO AREA. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SE OK BY AROUND 04/06Z. RESULTING IN DENSE FG FORMATION OVERNIGHT AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO SPREAD N ATOP A COLD GROUND SURFACE ONCE BNDRY LYR WINDS VEER MORE SRLY. GENERALLY N OF THE LEADING EDGE OF WARMER AIR THAT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NWD LATE. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RISE SEVERAL DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS THE WARMER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT N.
UPPER TROUGH SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS EAST IDAHO THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPS ALONG/BEHIND COLD FRONT/CONVERGENT LINE AS IT SAGS SOUTH THROUGH SNAKE PLAIN BETWEEN 09Z-15Z. MAIN FOCUS IS ON POWERFUL FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND EXIT THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO EXTREME SOUTHEAST IDAHO. THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO AROUND THE POCATELLO AREA AROUND SUNRISE.
1207 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT TRYING TO PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO OUR NORTH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, BUT BECOME MORE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST.
NORTHEAST OREGON CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WALLOWA COUNTY.
132 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015 COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CO WITH TROUGH INTO EASTERN ND.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
1114 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015 FOR 06Z TAFS /ISSUED 354 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/ A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SHAPING UP AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH OFF THE S CALIFORNIA COASTLINE SLOWLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
So, the low for tonight may occur just after midnight.
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AT OR BELOW FREEZING OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS. TUESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AREA WIDE ALONG WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF OUR CWA.
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE TO GO CATEGORICAL IN NORTHERN PLATEAU CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING NEAR THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.
WARM FRONT MOVES INLAND TOMORROW MORNING AND SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VISBY SHOULD OCCUR. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON TRAJECTORIES AND DURATION OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS.
Low pressure area is centered off the coast of Southern California this evening.
348 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT TRYING TO PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO OUR NORTH.
RESULTING IN DENSE FG FORMATION OVERNIGHT AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO SPREAD N ATOP A COLD GROUND SURFACE ONCE BNDRY LYR WINDS VEER MORE SRLY. GENERALLY N OF THE LEADING EDGE OF WARMER AIR THAT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NWD LATE. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RISE SEVERAL DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS THE WARMER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT N.
A STRONG 165 KNOT 250 MB JET PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE NORTH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST U. THE NAM WARMS THE 850/700 MB LAYER THE MOST WITH MORE OF A SLEET AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AS THE MORNING GOES ON. HOWEVER EVEN THE COOLER MODELS HAVE A WARM ELEVATED LAYER VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING. SO THE WARMER MODELS ARE PREFERRED.
At the same time a cold front will also steadily progress southeast across the county warning area through the day. This will produce morning highs in the lower 40s in the north central with midday highs across the remainder of the CWA except the far southeast corner. Will therefore go with a low end chance pop late tonight for light snow in the far north central and far southern counties and only a slight chance for light snow elsewhere as drier air in the low levels will be advecting in from the northeast.
324 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015 Today/Tonight: Temperatures across the forecast area remain in the lower to middle 30s as of this morning. The coolest air temperatures remain over far northeast Missouri, where some light light freezing drizzle/rain remains possible. Primary concern will end around sunrise as air temperatures warm above freezing. Highs will range from the lower to upper 40s, with a couple locations perhaps sneaking to 50 degrees.
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SLIPPED SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH ALABAMA AND WAS LOCATED NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.
227 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A FAST MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AND CHILLY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOWN ON THIS EVENINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE A SEPARATE BUT PHASED UPPER TROUGH /LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA.
AND A MODEST WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY HAS CONTINUED TO PROGRESS RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND IS NOW CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PT CONCEPTION. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A MODEST WARMING TREND ON TAP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WEST COAST.
422 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY SCOURING OUT THE REMAINING SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION SINCE LATE LAST WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP DOWN THE PLAINS TODAY.
THE SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS AND SHOWS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF REDUCED VSBYS FROM APF TO THE LAKE THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. BUT JUST ENOUGH IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS ON THE ENE WIND FLOW. ASIDE FROM THIS, A TRANQUIL NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY AND ESE WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL. /ISSUED 321 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015/ THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND A LARGE AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
MOST OF THE SNOWFALL IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE FROM THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT CURRENT ACROSS MONTANA. THE GENERAL MODEL TREND HAS PUSHED THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE WEST AND NORTH. IMPACTS AT THIS TIME ARE NOT ALL THAT BAD ACROSS CARBON COUNTY AS TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. THIS WILL CERTAINLY HAPPEN ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. WHICH MAKES SENSE AS THE MAIN UPPER FORCING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT IS ARRIVING.
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST BROUGHT SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO IDAHO MOUNTAIN ZONES DURING THE NIGHT.
117 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015 COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. /ISSUED 416 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/ THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL BE A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT.
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF SE OREGON AND THE TREASURE VALLEY AS OF 0330Z THIS EVENING. MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SW IDAHO THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE PARTIAL CLEARING AND COOLER TONIGHT BEHIND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE STATE.
Dewpoints ni the southwest CWA were already recovering into the mid 30s and temperatures were around freezing or above across the whole CWA. Parts of south central MO may remain at or just below freezing through the night, but not expecting the precipitation to really develop until after it warms above freezing.
A WEAK SURFACE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO OUR REGION TODAY BEHIND A BACK DOOR FRONT.
WITH POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN TROUGH TO DIG A BIT MORE AND BE SLOWER COMING OUT THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
THIS TROUGH COULD LIMIT MIXING IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTION ARE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND WILL HEAD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD RELAX AS THE LOW PULLS FARTHER AWAY THROUGH THE END OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD. AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH. AS THE SURFACE/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST AND DOWNGLILDE OCCURS. BAGGY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES SSW TO MEXICO. LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S.
MODELS DO ERODE SOME OF THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT AND WE MAY SEE SOME PARTIAL EVENING CLEARING CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH BEFORE FILLING BACK IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY MAKE AN APPEARANCE LATE TONIGHT IF A BIT MORE OF THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDINESS DECREASES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LOW CLOSED OFF OVER TEXAS AND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM BAHAMAS NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U. WHICH WILL ACT TO BLOCK UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT TROUGH.
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE S/SE UP TO 10-15 KTS TONIGHT WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 3-4 FEET.
GENERAL TREND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY HAS BEEN DOWNWARD AND THAT TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LOSE DEFINITION AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW THIS UPPER RIDGING TO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U. MODELS ALSO REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTHEAST.
703 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT USHERING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS WEEK.
702 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE KEYSTONE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
BEFORE A BETTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. FORTUNATELY THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO WED EVENING.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. A MID TROPOSPHERIC TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROF. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN AS THE SURFACE TROF MOVES INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
IN ADDITION TO THE LACK OF ANY WEATHER HAZARDS, WARMER THAN TYPICAL MID MARCH TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXPANDED FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL AGAIN STILL AGAIN BE IN CONTROL OF SENSIBLE WEATHER.
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY AND RESULT IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN REGION-WIDE ON THURSDAY AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS ALONG MUCH OF THE WEST COAST. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THIS OCCURRING AND FOR THE RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH LATE WEEK.
732 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE KEYSTONE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
MIDAFTERNOON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WITH A WIDESPREAD CANOPY OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS SPREADING ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE LOW. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE SPREAD NORTH INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. PARTICULARLY IN THE LOW LEVEL WARM SECTOR.
ITS BEEN A SUNNY AND EXCEPTIONALLY WARM AFTERNOON AS LARGE BUT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE MS VALLEY GLIDES EAST. THIS AFTERNOON A D-E-E-P UPPER TROF EXTENDS FROM KS ALL THE WAY TO THE MEXICAN PACIFIC COAST.
AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OFF QUICKLY TO THE EAST WINDS OVER CENTRAL IOWA WILL COME AROUND TO SOUTHEAST AND PICK UP JUST A BIT. DID SHAVE A DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AFTER SUNSET AND LOWER THAN ANTICIPATED DEWPOINTS BEING OBSERVED TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND BE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
610 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 217 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015/ THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE WEAK COLD FRONT HAD FINALLY MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH SOME BREAKS ALREADY NOTED IN THE LOW CLOUDS AS PER VISIBLE/IR SATELLITE IMAGES. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CENTRAL ALABAMA BY TONIGHT. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO FORM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH RAIN TAPERING TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.
A HARROW WEAK UPPER TROUGH REMAINED JUST TO OUR EAST WITH A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST RIDGE AXIS EXERTING JUST A BIT MORE INFLUENCE AT THE MOMENT TO OUR WEST.
Afternoon temperatures had climbed into the lower and even middle 70s south of the Missouri River. Clouds will begin to increase by later Thursday as an upper level trough takes shape across the southern Plains.
632 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015 323 PM CDT WEAK COLD FRONT. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM. WITH MID TO UPPER 50S COMMON AWAY FROM THE METRO AREA WHERE SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT SIMILAR HIGHS TO TODAY ARE EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ONSHORE TO SOUTHEASTERLY KEEPING NEAR LAKE AREAS ON THE ILLINOIS SIDE REMAINING MUCH COOLER.
5 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE THE RAIN TAPERS OFF THURSDAY EVENING AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH. WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER RIO GRAND VALLEY. WHILE THE LOW LOOKED RATHER IMPRESSIVE ON IR & VIS SAT IMAGERY EARLIER. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE N THIS EVENING. SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE MAIN SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EAST ON FRI.
WEAK GAP FLOW SET UP IS PRODUCING GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH IN THE LIVINGSTON AND NYE AREAS THIS EVENING AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL COLD FRONT ARRIVES SO RAISED WIND SPEEDS THERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TOMORROW AS A RESULT. ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS IN.
1045 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
549 PM MDT WED MAR 11 2015 UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN TONIGHT AND BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH ON THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL ADVECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE AREA KEEPING RH VALUES ABOVE FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY DRIER ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. IT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
UPSTREAM WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS PRODUCING SCT-BKN CIRRUS UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST WI INTO MN. /ISSUED 318 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015/ TONIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY DUE TO LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LAKESHORE COUNTIES WILL BE COOLER DUE TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND RESULT IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 60S AROUND THE AREA TODAY BUT SOME TEMPERATURES MANAGED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S IN THE EAST AND SOUTH BAYS AND OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST. IT WAS WARMER THAN WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR MARCH 11TH WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT FEW DAYS FAVOR A WARMING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AREA. THE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SOME LIGHT RAINFALL TO THE BAY AREA AND NORTH CENTRAL COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL EAST OF CA. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BUILD IN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY SHOULD THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BY EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN OVER THE PAST FEW MORNINGS SINCE THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY SINCE INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT SOLAR HEATING. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL APPEARS TO BE MID/LATE AFTERNOON THU AS WELL WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NE-ENE BEHIND IT.
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS WISCONSIN. WITH A RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE ROCKIES.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 53 66 50 56 / 20 60 80 90 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 49 68 46 58 / 20 30 80 90 OAK RIDGE, TN 49 66 49 58 / 10 40 80 80 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 43 69 42 57 / 10 20 60 80.
650 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 19Z WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND. MID CLOUDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG THE EDGE OF H85 THERMAL TROF LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION.
HIGH DEWPOINTS MOVING OVER THE COOLER WATERS ALONG THE ATLANTIC SHORELINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OFF THE GA/NORTH FL COASTLINE. NARRE MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG TO ENVELOPE ST SIMONS ISLAND WITH OCNL IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z WITH THE WARMER DEWPOINTS (UPPER 60S) OVERRIDING THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (NEAR 60).
/00Z TAFS/ LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT N ACROSS E TX. /ISSUED 620 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015/ A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. /ISSUED 235 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015/ WARM WEATHER CONTINUES AS A UPPER LOW SITS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THUS WILL SEE A DECREASE IN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ENDING EARLY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING BACK MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
For this evening and tonight, high pressure will remain in control over an expansive area of the nation's mid section. Under clear skies and light winds, temperatures will fall into the low to mid 40s.
Winds should also remain breezy over the plains of north central Montana with the passage of the cold front, so have increased them about 5 to 10 mph. Lastly, temperatures are running a bit cooler than expected along the Continental Divide, so have lowered lows there about 5 to 10 degrees. Clouds prevail across central/southwest MT as an upper-level trough makes its way across the state over the next 24 hrs.
PREVAILED MVFR CEILINGS ALL DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH TEMPO TSRA AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OVER S TX AND W GULF LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE TX COASTAL BEND.
1014 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE KEYSTONE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
/ISSUED 357 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015/ WESTERN WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC STATES WILL MERGE WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER TEXAS NORTHERN MEXICO IN NEXT 24-36 HOURS.