Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
104 AM MDT Mon Sep 12 2022 Mean upper ridging will persist through Wed, with a transition to semi-active SW flow after. The only weather feature to speak of the next couple days is a ridge topping impulse and associated backdoor cool front that will slide into the region later today and support slightly cooler conds Tues (mainly across the northeast half) before another round of WAA Wed. Semi- active SW flow aloft coupled with monsoon moisture will support rain chances once again the later half of the week as a series of impulses cross the region, in addition to slightly cooler but seasonal temps. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected for the last half of the week along with a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Upper lows are noted on either side of the ridge, one spinning over WI/IL and headed toward the Great Lakes, one off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, and still another off the southern CA coast left over from what was TS Kay. With high pressure in control in KS, clear skies, light winds, and dew point depressions of a couple degrees have led to shallow patchy fog in a few locations, but it tends to be brief.
256 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022 A warming trend will commence today with the area under northwest flow aloft between the upper low moving into the southern Great Lakes region and upper ridge axis migrating from the interior West to over the Rockies. The upper ridging will move eastward across the Plains during Tuesday with corresponding low level thickness rises/warming resulting in the return of a more intense heat with highs into the 90s again across central and southern Kansas.
Closed upper low is centered over Northern Illinois. Another area of low pressure continues to develop across southern lower Michigan with a cut-off low trailing just behind. This cut-off low continues to deepen as it moves eastward and catches up with it's surface reflection still over southern lower Michigan Monday morning.
(Today through Tuesday) The cold front has cleared the area and any shower activity is well into East Tennessee. Tonight will be on the cool side with lows in the low to mid 50s. A couple obs in the cooler locations could even dip below 50. After the cool start, temperatures will rebound into the low to even the mid 80s by the afternoon.
1053 PM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 (Rest of tonight) A broken line of showers can currently be seen along a cold front stretching south from Lexington, KY to just east of Florence. Cooler temperatures and drier air will filter in amid the northwest flow behind this front, and it will feel like the first real taste of fall weather we have had across the southeast. Early morning lows will fall to the upper 50s/lower 60s across the area, about 10 degrees cooler than we saw last night.
(Today through Tuesday) Weak 500 mb troughiness over the BRO CWFA, courtesy of closed 500 mb low pressure moving over the Great Lakes area, will prevail during the forecast period. The immediate three coastal counties and the lower Texas coastal waters represent the areas with the best chance for precipitation with this synoptic situation in place.
1045 PM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 (This evening through Monday) Pleasant, early Autumn-like weather is ongoing across the Southern Plains in the wake of yesterday's cold front. The lowest temperatures are expected across north central Oklahoma (in closest proximity to the ridge). Temperatures across the west/southwest may quickly cool-down after sunset and the become steady-state later tonight as winds increase from the south as the ridge moves to the east.
Highs will only be in the low to mid 60s today. Water vapor imagery tells the story well with upper low still over northern IL and impressive midlevel dry slot engulfing our entire area. Upper low will continue to drift eastward today and wind field will slowly relax as occlusion process continues. Precip winds down tonight as upper low exits eastward. Precip finally ends for good Tuesday evening as strong ridge develops upstream. This ridge holds strong over the eastern CONUS for much of the period resulting in dry weather and increasing temps. The supportive upper low was stacked back to the southwest over IL. The upper low should drift east today and bring returning showers over northern Indiana as the cold pool aloft moves over the area.
Broad high pressure to the southwest will allow for plenty of sunshine today, with temperatures climbing into the upper 70s to low 80s by the afternoon. Confidence is high in dry, quiet weather persisting through the work week as an upper level ridge builds over our area.
A high pressure ridge will move across the region today and keep the dry air in place for at least another day. Unfortunately, the ridge moving through also means the cold advection has ended so a gradual warm-up will begin today and continue for the next few days. As the high pressure center continues to shift east, return flow will set back up tonight and slowly usher in a warm/humid airmass. Thankfully noticeable moisture return takes a few days, so even though tomorrow will be warmer than today with highs in the 90s, it will still not be "humid". /Issued 228 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022/ /Tuesday Night Onward/ With the upper ridge dominating the North and Central Texas weather by mid-week, expect the above normal temperatures and dry weather to continue throughout most of the region.
06Z surface data has low pressure over Lake Michigan east northeast of Milwaukee. High pressure ran from the upper Midwest into the southern Plains. Upper low across northern Illinois will keep areas of rain going through the morning generally along/east of the Mississippi and along/north of I-80. As the upper low moves toward Indiana in the afternoon, the rain will slowly end from west to east. Tonight dry but cool conditions will be seen as high pressure builds in from the Plains.
Cold front trailing from this low will drop into Montana later this morning with winds shifting to the northwest during the afternoon. The remainder of the week will feature the development of a long wave trof over the Pacific Northwest for more seasonable temperatures and potentially some light precipitation by the end of the week. A dry cold front in the afternoon will push the smoke and haze off to the south.
628 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022 Kind of a convoluted surface pressure pattern this morning with high pressure to the south and a stalled weakening low to the east, while there is a low to the northwest. Low level flow increases as the system to the northwest moves into the western Dakotas, while just to the west of this low, HRRR near-surface smoke progs suggest some smoke will move across west river. This will clear out any low level smoke, however HRRR continues to indicates that the ridge aloft will continue to provide an ample pathway for a high sheen of smoke.
614 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022 Latest water vapor imagery early this morning is showing a large upper low over northern Illinois. The latest run of the HREF is showing that the upper low will slowly move off to the east today. There may still be some partly cloudy skies over the northern and eastern counties as the low moves off, but subsidence in the wake of the low and HREF precipitation probabilities favor keeping the forecast dry today. Will go with mostly clear skies tonight into Tuesday as a upper ridge builds into the area. With mainly sunny skies across the area today and warming low levels, will go with highs that warm about 5 degrees warmer than yesterdays, with highs on Tuesday climbing around another 5 degrees.
Smoke has also had an impact on daytime high temperatures, keeping values about 5 to 10 degrees cooler on average.
403 AM MDT Mon Sep 12 2022 An upper level ridge will build into the area today and tonight. This will lead to another dry day with even warmer temperatures. Expect warm above normal temperatures Tuesday afternoon for all areas as the upper level ridge exits. Additionally, as the ridge exits, subtropical remnants from Kay will arrive into our mountains.
341 AM MDT Mon Sep 12 2022 Seasonal average temperatures returns for this week as a cold front moves through today. A surface cold front moving south from Canada will bring temperatures back to seasonably average starting today and help bring relief from the smoke and hazy conditions this evening. Upper level ridging begins to weaken and move east as an upper level trough develops to our Pacific Northwest, bringing multiple weather disturbances beginning tonight.
Cooler temperatures will continue through midweek with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. The remnant low starts to wash out into a trough/wave and should begin to lift to the north and east late tonight and Tuesday.
Light northeast to east flow driven by the Atlantic ridge established across mainland Florida becomes the driving force for weather the rest of the day as the mid to upper level low currently positioned south of the Keys drifts southwest away from our area. Convection is already starting to bubble up on the southern edge of the Middle Keys and is expected to also form along the Lower Keys as the day progresses.
554 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022 Today and tonight: A deep closed upper low currently centered over northern Illinois will gradually shift east into northern Ohio through the day today and tonight. As of early this morning, an associated surface cold front is dropping south through the area and is forecast to reach the Gulf Coast by this evening. For today, mostly sunny skies are expected with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Several readings in the low 50s are also expected across northeast portions of the area, especially in traditional cool drainage locations.
605 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022 (Today and tonight) The upper low and subsequent trough responsible for yesterday's cold front are slowly making their way east through the Midwest. This exiting trough will put the area in a realm of weak north to northwest flow aloft as high amplitude upper level ridging begins to drift east out of the Rockies. The 850 mb thermal ridge will also see a slight strengthening today. The only point of note is there may be a slight increase in winds overnight, especially across the Big Country, as lee troughing tightens the pressure gradient.
636 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022 (Today through Tuesday Night) The weak cold front that moved through the region yesterday is already over the coastal waters. Temperatures will climb from the low to mid 90s this afternoon. Overnight lows will range from the low 60s to low 70s (inland) and in the low to mid 70s along the coast. With the ridge in place, strong subsidence and warmer conditions are expected to continue on Tuesday. Highs will generally be from the low to mid 90s.
653 AM EDT Mon Sep 12 2022 An upper level low will move slowly east across the lower Great Lakes from today through Tuesday causing scattered showers and cool temperatures. High pressure will build in from midweek into the weekend providing mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures. An upper low will slowly move from the upper Midwest into the lower Lakes today. The upper low will move across the region tonight into Tuesday. Lows tonight will dip into the the mid 50s, with highs on Tuesday reaching the low to mid 70s. Expect lows Tuesday night to drop into the lower and middle 50s. Mid level ridge to build over the Mid and Upper MS Valley at mid week.
An upper level ridge will begin to establish itself over the region today, which will bring dry and warm conditions and will dominate the weather over this upcoming week.
A quiet period of high pressure with good radiational cooling nights will allow lows to get quite cool with frost possible in the colder areas.
625 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022 (Today through Tuesday) Weak 500 mb troughiness over the BRO CWFA, courtesy of closed 500 mb low pressure moving over the Great Lakes area, will prevail during the forecast period. The immediate three coastal counties and the lower Texas coastal waters represent the areas with the best chance for precipitation with this synoptic situation in place.
620 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022 (Today through Tuesday) The cold front as of 3 AM is now observed to be just south of the office to Anniston. Temperatures overnight will drop into the 50s across most of the area with just the far southeast holding the low 60s.
442 AM MDT Mon Sep 12 2022 Mean upper ridging will persist through Wed, with a transition to semi-active SW flow after. The only weather feature to speak of the next couple days is a ridge topping impulse and associated backdoor cool front that will slide into the region later today and support slightly cooler conds Tues (mainly across the northeast half) before another round of WAA Wed. Semi- active SW flow aloft coupled with monsoon moisture will support rain chances once again the later half of the week as a series of impulses cross the region, in addition to slightly cooler but seasonal temps. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected for the last half of the week along with a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms.
The drier air mass will continue to work across the area, reaching the ridges by late afternoon/early evening. After a dry night, a few isolated and light showers will be possible north of PGH Tuesday as an upper low slides north of the region, the majority of the region will be dry with highs around 70F. Scattered shra and IFR/MVFR cigs are expected for most sites through 17/18Z with llvl moisture ahead of an approaching cold front. Ptchy restrictions are psbl Tue with a crossing upr trough, a few isolated showers may advance with residual moisture and llvl instability below 5kft.
High pressure that influenced the areas weather over the weekend was moving away from the region and moisture was wrapping around the high and into our area. Meanwhile a low pressure system over the ne pacnw pushes into the pacnw Tuesday. The low pressure will combine with lingering moisture over and near the Blue/Wallowa mountains. High temperatures are expected to be above normal today with slightly cooler temperatures Tuesday but remain in the 80s with 70s in the mountains.
611 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022 (Today through Tuesday) The cold front has cleared the area and any shower activity is well into East Tennessee. Tonight will be on the cool side with lows in the low to mid 50s. A couple obs in the cooler locations could even dip below 50. After the cool start, temperatures will rebound into the low to even the mid 80s by the afternoon.
The Atlantic ridge axis is expected to flatten out into tonight across south central and southern Florida, ahead of an approaching trough pushing into the Southeast from the Deep South. Locally, SW flow ahead of the trough will again lead to scattered to numerous showers and storms across east central Florida today, with a dominant west coast sea breeze meeting the weaker east coast breeze on this side of the peninsula. In addition, cooler 500mb temperatures (-6. Afternoon highs today reaching the low to mid-90s, with humid conditions leading to heat indices in the 102-107 range.
(Today through Tuesday Night) Sfc ridging continues to build in over the area behind yesterday's cold front. H500 cyclone will continue to slowly push east from the southern Great Lakes toward the Northeast, providing NW flow over the state.
532 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022 Slow-moving storm system which brought rain to the area late last week continues to drift east through the southern Great Lakes, allowing an upper ridge to begin building into the northern Plains today. Skies remain cloud-free tonight, though we could begin to see some high-level smoke layer begin to stream across the region around the upper ridge.
Seasonal average temperatures returns for this week as a cold front moves through today. A surface cold front moving south from Canada will bring temperatures back to seasonably average starting today and help bring relief from the smoke and hazy conditions this evening. Upper level ridging begins to weaken and move east as an upper level trough develops to our Pacific Northwest, bringing multiple weather disturbances beginning tonight.
Highs will only be in the low to mid 60s today. Water vapor imagery tells the story well with upper low still over northern IL and impressive midlevel dry slot engulfing our entire area. Upper low will continue to drift eastward today and wind field will slowly relax as occlusion process continues. Precip winds down tonight as upper low exits eastward. Precip finally ends for good Tuesday evening as strong ridge develops upstream. This ridge holds strong over the eastern CONUS for much of the period resulting in dry weather and increasing temps. The upper low was over northeast IL and will drift east today and bring returning showers over northern Indiana as the cold pool aloft moves over the area.
Models prog an upper level trough and weak frontal boundary that are contributing to these showers, will continue to slowly track southward this morning. As the upper trough moves south of the area, drier mid levels will filter across S TX leading to decreasing clouds and slightly above normal temperatures this afternoon. Models indicate the weak boundary will lift north as a warm front this afternoon with winds clocking around to the east then southeast by late afternoon/early evening. Otherwise, S TX is expected to remain generally dry with highs a couple of degrees warmer than today's forecasted values due to continued drying in the mid levels.
609 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022 (Today through Tuesday Night) Sfc ridging continues to build in over the area behind yesterday's cold front. H500 cyclone will continue to slowly push east from the southern Great Lakes toward the Northeast, providing NW flow over the state.
518 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022 A warming trend will commence today with the area under northwest flow aloft between the upper low moving into the southern Great Lakes region and upper ridge axis migrating from the interior West to over the Rockies. The upper ridging will move eastward across the Plains during Tuesday with corresponding low level thickness rises/warming resulting in the return of a more intense heat with highs into the 90s again across central and southern Kansas.
High pressure that influenced the areas weather over the weekend was moving away from the region and moisture was wrapping around the high and into our area. Meawnhile the low pressure system over the ne pacnw pushes into the pacnw Tuesday and moisture persists over and near the Blue/Wallowa mountains with showers and a few thunderstorms redeveloping Tuesday afternoon and evening that is forecast to expand in coverage and intnsity. High temperatures are expected to be above normal today with slightly cooler temperatures Tuesday but remain in the 80s with 70s in the mountains.
239 AM PDT Mon Sep 12 2022 Cooler temperatures will be the main story for this week. The cooler temperatures we experienced this past weekend after the long stretch of excessive triple digits is only the beginning of a change as Autumn nears. Both GEFS and European Model ensembles are in agreement that the flow in the upper level of the atmospheres will be an onshore flow which will bring in cooler air from the Pacific. Both ensembles also agree that there will be multiple troughs through the week.
Coastal areas will also see more marine influence with cooler afternoon temperatures and areas of morning low clouds and fog. An upper level low which brought cloud cover to much of the region yesterday will move into Washington and British Columbia today. Nonetheless this feature will maintain cooler tempertures to to interior zones while promoting a moderate marine influence to the coastal areas.
651 AM EDT Mon Sep 12 2022 A cold front will move through the region late today with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected ahead of the front.
(Rest of Today) The cold front that brought showers and thunderstorms yesterday has continued its progression east and is now located across far northeast Alabama.
Closed upper low is centered over Northern Illinois. A cut-off low continues it's slow march towards the northeast.
513 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022 (Issued 513 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022) Today and Tonight: Low pressure around 1003 MB over Lake MI will retrograde into ern WI this morning, then gradually weaken and shift ewd once again. A narrow w-e band of heavy rainfall continues this morning via frontogenesis, and supported aloft via PVA from the upper low over ne IL. The larger area of showers over the CWA is within the TRoWAL and PVA regions of the cyclone.
624 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022 (Today) A dry northwest flow aloft prevails over the region this morning on the back side of an upper low centered near Chicago. At the surface, high pressure was centered over eastern OK. The low level thermal trough that pushed into the region behind yesterday's cold front will shift east in tandem with the upper trough.
Weather Details: The ridge is full entrenched with dry air advecting in from the west. The ridge axis will ungulate a bit today and become sharper amplified.
Water vapor imagery shows mid-level trough moving into southern California this morning. Prime diffluent region ahead of the trough positioned over the lower Colorado River Valley sparking numerous thunderstorms over western Arizona currently. Due to the high rainfall rate potential and training storms have issued a flash flood watch for southern Mohave County through 8 am MST this morning. Active period will continue into Tuesday as trough gets absorbed by trough moving into the PacNW and lifts northeast over the area.
551 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022 (Today through Tuesday) Latest WPC surface analysis places a cold front from Del Rio to Hondo to Cuero, with light NNE flow behind this boundary over the I- 35 Corridor and Hill Country. Temps will quickly climb into the low to mid 90s along with plenty of sunshine and ENE winds. MOS guidance even indicates temperatures as low at the lower 60s over the Hill Country, but we won't get too cute with our forecast.
High pressure continues to ridge over southern Florida and a weak frontal boundary continues to stretch across northern Florida and into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. High pressure continues to ridge over southern Florida while a weak frontal boundary stretches across northern Florida and into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.
1038 AM EDT Mon Sep 12 2022 An upper level low will move slowly east across the lower Great Lakes from today through Tuesday causing scattered showers and cool temperatures. High pressure will build in from midweek into the weekend providing mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures. But as upper low approaches, more clouds will spread in during the mid to late afternoon. The upper low will move across the region tonight into Tuesday. Lows tonight will dip into the the mid 50s, with highs on Tuesday reaching the low to mid 70s. Expect lows Tuesday night to drop into the lower and middle 50s. Mid level ridge to build over the Mid and Upper MS Valley at mid week.
1222 PM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022 (Today through Tuesday) The cold front has cleared the area and any shower activity is well into East Tennessee. Tonight will be on the cool side with lows in the low to mid 50s. A couple obs in the cooler locations could even dip below 50. After the cool start, temperatures will rebound into the low to even the mid 80s by the afternoon.
(Tonight) An upper low is spinning across the Great Lakes Region with a cold front out ahead and to its south draped along the Eastern Seaboard. The upper level pattern shows ridging over the Western CONUS and troughing over the Eastern CONUS. Over the Tennessee Valley, the post frontal airmass continues to advect in drier and cooler air from the north. Current afternoon observations show dewpoint temperatures falling down into the lower 50s to upper 40s. Temperatures will fall quickly after sunset with overnight lows in the lower 50s.