Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Arctic high pressure in the lee of the Alberta Rockies slowly moving south-southeast towards the Northern Plains, advecting very dry and cold air into our area. The main highlight will be the very cold air moving into the region as the Arctic high pressure system continues to build southeastward tonight.
300 PM MST Fri Dec 16 2016 Somewhat cooler and continued unsettled weather is forecast tonight and early Saturday for south central Arizona.
The main stories on Saturday will be a strong Arctic cold front that will approach the forecast area and unseasonably warm temperatures ahead of the front. The aforementioned cold front will move into the northern Big Country by early to mid afternoon, then approach the northern Concho Valley by 6 PM. As the cold front approaches during the afternoon, temperatures will quickly fall 20 to 30 degrees behind the front and north winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph, with higher gusts.
A weather system moving into the area will result in cooler temperatures along with a chance of showers today.
1242 PM EST Fri Dec 16 2016 A wintry mix of precipitation is expected with weekend low pressure. The overall setup would indicate snow late this evening then a slow change over to freezing rain from south to north overnight. Eventually, the ground will warm and freezing rain will change over to just plain rain on Saturday. It should be noted that even though thermometers readings will go above freezing, this does not represent what ground temperatures are. So for the forecast, did not indicate a change over to rain once model data indicated a rise above 32 degrees, but held on to freezing rain until temperatures rose closer to 35. So this will eventually allow for a much warmer day Saturday, compared to temperatures of the past week.
Upper trough is digging across the far wrn CONUS with zonal flow continuing across the nrn Plains. The GFS has the highest snowfall amounts along the Nebraska border while the ECM is more along I-90. Arctic high pressure will move into the region tonight as the snowfall ends bringing very cold air to the region. with the coldest spots across northeast WY which will be closer the center of the high. Arctic trough will break down in the period with active fast westerly flow developing.
/issued 348 AM CST Fri Dec 16 2016/ Leading edge of strong upper trough moves onto the OR/CA coast early today with the base of the trough swinging ashore this evening.
318 PM CST Fri Dec 16 2016 Based on reports around the area there has been freezing drizzle for the area south of Interstate 80 this afternoon. The freezing drizzle has been slowly pushing to the north this afternoon. Expect the freezing drizzle to continue to spread to the north during the evening. The area where the greatest accumulation of freezing drizzle will be in the east where it will last the longest. A cold front will move through the area during the evening and turn winds to the north and start to increase. As the colder air moves into the area the freezing drizzle will give way to snow. The freezing drizzle will continue to move to the north this evening and will gradually end from southwest to northeast during the evening hours.
Record warmth Saturday will be followed by an arctic blast to end the Well advertised arctic cold front is still on track to blast across southeast TX Saturday night. Ahead of this front, south- southeasterly low level flow off the Gulf of Mexico will increase over the next 24 hrs as surface warm front shifts well north of the area overnight.
Snow levels will initially range from 7000-8500 feet, but will fall rapidly to around 5000 feet tonight as a cold front moves across Arizona. Low-level moisture will remain with showers mainly focused over the higher elevations where terrain features will produce upward motion (winds aloft will remain in the 50 to 70 mph range. Precipitation will increase again this afternoon and evening as a colder, trailing upper low and surface cold front moves through.
Temperatures will continue to rise this evening ahead of a strong cold front that will move into northeast Oklahoma later this evening.
A strong low pressure system approaching central Indiana tonight and moving through the area over the weekend will bring active weather to the area. Temperatures will warm through the night and the afternoon on Saturday will see highs in the low 40s north to mid 50s south.
Dry conditions will prevail through this period, as high pressure will dominate the eastern CONUS through the morning and afternoon hours. As the high pressure center slides eastward from the Ohio River Valley overnight to the Mid-Atlantic region during the afternoon, light northeasterly flow across our region will become easterly throughout the day.
1109 AM CST Fri Dec 16 2016 A warm front still hugging the coast is expected to move inland later today. Otherwise, forecast on track with unseasonably mild conditions spreading inland as coastal/warm front shifts north through the day. Evans High pressure is moving eastward and about to leave the Ohio Valley for the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States. On the flip side, with solid onshore flow of moist air over relatively cooler waters, sea fog development is a forecast on more solid ground. That environment will exist until the cold front comes late Saturday night to clear out any lingering fog.
Weak upper level trough moving across the area this morning with cloudy skies.
Arctic high pressure is pushing south into Montana. Arctic high pressure drops into the central Plains Saturday with a lee-side trough developing along the Front Range of Alberta and Montana.
This afternoons forecast package will begin to transition messaging in the highlites to cover onset of bitter cold wind chill values and blowing snow/strong winds for the weekend.
Freezing temperatures in the valley this weekend with dry conditions. Will also be looking at min temps next couple of mornings as temps will trend at/below freezing in the Valley.
1142 AM EST Fri Dec 16 2016 A wintry mix of precipitation is expected with weekend low pressure. The overall setup would indicate snow late this evening then a slow change over to freezing rain from south to north overnight. Eventually, the ground will warm and freezing rain will change over to just plain rain on Saturday. It should be noted that even though thermometers readings will go above freezing, this does not represent what ground temperatures are. So for the forecast, did not indicate a change over to rain once model data indicated a rise above 32 degrees, but held on to freezing rain until temperatures rose closer to 35. So this will eventually allow for a much warmer day Saturday, compared to temperatures of the past week.
The satellite shows pretty solid cloud cover as the remainder of an upper trough swings through. This will gradually diminish today as the trough moves away, but there will be some light accumulations in the east side mountains. Weak low pressure will move through the waters today, then offshore high pressure sets up tonight and will persist through the weekend.
1008 AM PST Fri Dec 16 2016 An arctic cold front will push through the region today.
A broad upper level trough will continue over the area for the next couple of days.
Cold front associated with upper low over the Dakotas was through the area at 08Z with strong pressure rises and gusty winds behind. Have trended a bit warmer on temps based on latest short-range guidance. A persistent 10- 15 kts of dry north-northeasterly flow in the lowest 5kft of the atmosphere will slow the saturation of the lower troposphere and likely result in a sharp gradient in snowfall amounts along the northern side of the storm.
325 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016 Water vapor imagery continues to show a broad trough of low pressure over the US this afternoon, with predominately west southwesterly flow aloft over the ArkLaTex. The low clouds remain relatively thick this afternoon, with only a few breaks occurring along and north of Interstate 30. Elsewhere, a very fine mist or drizzle continues to be reported periodically, with temperatures in the lower to mid 50s. As the cold front approaches the region late Wednesday and Wednesday night, we could see some measurable light rain develop.
As a fast moving trough approaches and moves across the southern and central Plains Wednesay, some light precipitation may reach the ground in northern Oklahoma.
146 PM EST Tue Dec 6 2016 Complex low pressure extending from the Ohio River Valley to Southeast Coast will move northeast and be mainly off the Mid- Atlantic Coast late tonight. Dry high pressure will briefly build across the forecast area for Wednesday.
A cold front has nearly pushed through the CWA early this morning with moderate cold air advecting into the area behind it.
Temperatures will be cold, highs will struggle to get into the low to mid 20s during the afternoon.
/issued 1043 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2016/ Latest IR satellite imagery shows linear convection building along a cold front draped from north-central Florida southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico.
A deep upper level low and associated winter storm will move across northern Minnesota today. Strong Arctic high pressure behind this system will extend from Alberta Canada southeast into Montana, northeast Wyoming, and the western Dakotas. An upstream upper level trough currently moving through the Pacific Northwest will drop southeast across Idaho and northern Utah. Ahead of this trough, isentropic upglide will begin to develop from northern Colorado into Southern Wyoming. The higher amounts around 2 inches are most likely to fall across southwest Deuel, western Perkins and Chase County. Additional accumulations past 12z Wednesday will be on the order of an inch or less, with the highest amounts along the southern and western portions of Chase and possibly Hayes Counties.
The upper level trough over the region is gradually moving into Idaho leaving eastern WA/OR under a N-NW flow aloft.
248 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016 Upper trough that will aid in pushing arctic air into the region tomorrow currently swinging through the NW CONUS. Limited moisture in the lowest levels and aloft will limit precip chances tomorrow afternoon and evening to mainly northeast OK and northwest AR. but expect temperatures to remain above freezing across most of the forecast area through Wednesday afternoon.
258 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016 A cold day has been seen even with clear skies after high pressure has pushed into the area throughout the day. Tonight, cloud cover is expected to move in from the southwest and overspread the area with temperatures dipping into the low and mid 20s. The main inhibitor will be dry air in the lower levels that will need to be overcome before snow can make it to the ground and accumulate.
113 PM EST Tue Dec 6 2016 High pressure will build toward the area from the west today and will crest over Maine this evening.
More model differences regarding potential for sct precip late Wed & Wed night ahead of the approaching strong cold front. Much of the area will see freezing temps Fri morning and Freeze Warnings will be needed for locations that haven't seen one yet.
318 PM EST Tue Dec 6 2016 A complex area of low pressure moves off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight with high pressure building in from the west Wednesday.
1158 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016 A cold front was barreling across the state during the overnight hours. This front will usher in much cooler air for today with highs struggling to climb out of the low 40s with continued low level cold air advection.
1213 PM EST Tue Dec 6 2016 Rain will spread across the forecast area today as low pressure tracks across SE Ohio. The low will track east of the area overnight and dissipate.
341 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016 Cold front has pushed east of the dvn cwa with sunny skies and brisk northwest winds gusting to 30 mph behind the front. Elsewhere, a secondary cold front was pushing towards nw IA with readings only in the single digits in the northern Plains and northern Rockies. Deepening upper low was located in northern MN with snow falling in ND and MN. Tonight: Cold air advection well underway with colder temperatures being funneled southeast around the strong low pressure situated in northern MN. Wind chills for much of the day will range from the single digits and teens north to the lower 20s south. Ambient temps are forecast in the lower to middle teens.
1044 AM MST Tue Dec 6 2016 Upper level analysis has closed low over eastern ND, with broad trof across the northwestern and north central CONUS. At the surface, deep low pressure is located across northwest MN with arctic high centered over western MT.
Strong system that gave our eastern zones yesterday the Blizzard was centered over northern Minnesota with a broad trough extending back into the Northern Rockies.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail this afternoon into this evening before a cold front moves into the area tonight. /issued 924 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): Winds remain light this morning as high pressure remains across the northwestern Gulf. The southwest wind will help push daytime highs into the low to mid 80s. cooler air will move into the northern portions of the region, with highs Wednesday varying between the upper 60s for the ranchlands to the upper 70s for the lower valley.
1123 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016 A lingering low stratus deck asssociated with a thermal trough over the Gulf South will continue to bring MVFR ceilings of 1000 to 2000 feet to most of the terminals through most of the forecast period.
Best chances for the lower conditions will be over the northern sites but some of the guidance was showing some potential even down to KGLS after 06Z tonight.
216 PM EST Tue Dec 6 2016 Low pressure is expected to spread precipitation across the region through early tonight.
Focus late tonight turns toward prospect of low stratus and freezing fog as NAM. Leaned toward the lower end of MOS guidance given nature of this modified Cp airmass. Coldest temps within this saturation are at -10C or warmer at times, so some ice nucleation/snowflake development is possible. However, muted ascent and dry air advection should limit any of this to just light freezing drizzle and flurries before the stratus erodes from N-S Thu afternoon. Not inclined to bite on any one solution yet, but have nudged temps cooler on Sun - somewhere between the chilly GFS and unseasonably mild ECMWF.
1010 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016 Cold front was nearing the MS River with rapidly improving conditions occurring west of the front. Cold front pushing across eastern IA this morning will rapidly dissipate the dense fog/low stratus that's ahead of the front. areas of fog and low clouds cover the region with temperatures around freezing north to the mid 30s south. A cold front with scattered flurries just behind the front north of I-80 is approaching northwest sections of the area. cold front should pass from west to east roughly between 6 AM and 11 AM with fog rapidly dissipating and clearing skies.
Band of showers and a few storms along a prefrontal trough moving over central sections of EC FL at midafternoon. Cold front will push through overnight, with low temperatures ranging from the mid 50s north to mid/upper 60s south. Somewhat drier and slightly cooler air will filter in.
A large area of cold high pressure over the Central Plains will migrate eastward overnight but lose its identity as frontogenesis within the 800-700mb layer begins to unfold across KS and MO.
314 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016 High pressure ridging will build into the area tonight and Wednesday. Clearing line will make its way across the remainder of the forecast area this evening in the wake of a cold front pushing through the Midwest. The combination of the incoming cloudiness, dry air advecting in with the ridge, and winds remaining up around 5 kts should reduce the potential for fog tonight and keep temps mostly in the 20s overnight.
The worst conditions remain in North central South Dakota or the Mobridge area, and the western side of the Sisseton Hills. Another lobe of energy rotates around the upper low on Wednesday, thus bringing a chance for some snow showers to eastern parts of the CWA during said time frame.
850 mb temps still set to take a tumble with the passage of the cold front from this morning.
Thanks to drier air across our region plus fewer clouds compared to yesterday temperatures are running anywhere from 3 to 7 degrees cooler in most spots. Tonight will be a near repeat of today although many spots will likely be a few degrees cooler. Right now have majority of metro locations tomorrow morning in the mid 30s to the lower 40s. Later on Wednesday that synoptic pattern will undergo a major switch as the dry northwesterly flow is replaced by a much wetter zonal flow due to an approaching longwave trough.
1237 PM EST Tue Dec 6 2016 High pressure builds over the area today. A weak trough of low pressure approaches from the west Wednesday morning with more light snow possible.
A secondary cold front will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air to the area, with highs only around 12 above across far northern Nebraska, warming to the lower 20s across portions of central and southwest Nebraska. Strong high pressure building in across the northern plains for the remainder of the week will allow chilly arctic air to filter in to the area beginning on Wednesday night.
A very cold upper level trough with limited moisture has been generating light snow early this morning across northern and western portions of our CWA. Radar shows 20-30 dbz returns moving east over the lower Treasure Valley, but no snow has been reported at Ontario or Caldwell, and none has been seen on webcams. Highs on Wednesday are still expected to remain below freezing despite abundant sunshine.
1115 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2016 Low pressure is expected to spread precipitation across the region Today.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night):A nearly zonal flow across the southern half of the country this afternoon will allow a cold front to move into the CWA tonight before stalling. A slight chance of light rain will develop across the coastal sections of the CWA Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening and rain chances will increase Wed night as a stronger cold front approaches deep south TX late Wed night.
1112 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016 Water vapor imagery shows a board trough over the continental US this morning, with a couple of disturbances moving through the primarily westerly flow aloft.
Dense fog advisory has expired as conditions rapidly improve with the passage of a cold front pushing eastward across nw and western IL, with decent pressure rises in eastern IA. Cold front was nearing the MS River with rapidly improving conditions occurring west of the front. Cold front pushing across eastern IA this morning will rapidly dissipate the dense fog/low stratus that's ahead of the front. areas of fog and low clouds cover the region with temperatures around freezing north to the mid 30s south. A cold front with scattered flurries just behind the front north of I-80 is approaching northwest sections of the area. cold front should pass from west to east roughly between 6 AM and 11 AM with fog rapidly dissipating and clearing skies.
314 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016 Sfc analysis places the low over eastern KY with a cold front extending southwest across the mid state. Pressure rises are fairly pronounced over our area so the cold front appears to be on the move. On Wednesday, weak thermal ridging sets up in a se-nw orientation in advance of Wednesday nights cold frontal passage. Will lean toward the slightly warmer gfs solution and go with highs in the 45 to 50 degree range, despite the broken mid/high cloud coverage.
The upper level trough over the region is gradually moving into Idaho leaving eastern WA/OR under a N-NW flow aloft. skies will clear overnight but could see some patchy freezing fog overnight and early Wednesday.
1107 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016 Dense fog advisory has expired as conditions rapidly improve with the passage of a cold front pushing eastward across nw and western IL, with decent pressure rises in eastern IA. Cold front was nearing the MS River with rapidly improving conditions occurring west of the front. Cold front pushing across eastern IA this morning will rapidly dissipate the dense fog/low stratus that's ahead of the front. areas of fog and low clouds cover the region with temperatures around freezing north to the mid 30s south. A cold front with scattered flurries just behind the front north of I-80 is approaching northwest sections of the area. cold front should pass from west to east roughly between 6 AM and 11 AM with fog rapidly dissipating and clearing skies.
Tonight Through Wednesday A short wave low pressure trough now over Idaho and southwest Montana now spreading clouds and areas of light mountain snowfall into western and northern Wyoming will continue to move southeast tonight across west and southwest Wyoming. Highs are expected to range from the lower teens in the east to -5 in the western valleys. Wednesday Night Through Tuesday With the low moving away from the area and clearing expected Wednesday night.
1251 PM EST Tue Dec 6 2016 An area of low pressure will move northeast through the Ohio Valley today. Drier conditions will return on Tuesday, but temperatures will drop for the second half of the week after a cold front moves through on Wednesday. Aside from the low clouds, the rest of the air mass in place over the Ohio Valley tonight will be quite dry. On the southeastern periphery of a stacked low over northern Minnesota, a dry cold front is expected to move through the ILN CWA early Wednesday morning, with winds switching to the WNW. The cold advection will do its best to stunt the diurnal cycle, and much cooler conditions are expected going into Wednesday night.
304 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016 A strong area of low pressure currently over northern Minnesota will slowly push east of the region through Wednesday.
Strong low pressure system will be driving northeast across the region through early afternoon with very low flight conditions at CHA and TYS through mid day and moving into the TRI vicinity by mid morning and continuing into the later afternoon hours.
302 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016 Colf front moving across the area will push the low cloudiness out of the area.
A cold front will move into Arizona from the north with a few light showers possible by tonight and Wednesday.
A little resurgence of this moisture is expected Wednesday as a weak lobe rotates around the back end of the receding Ontario upper low, and what moisture there is will again be in the low dendritic layer, so expect a few flurries mainly north of Interstate 90.
and then shifting to the northwest and north following the passage of a cold front after 13Z to 15Z Wednesday 10 to 20 knots with possible gusts to near 25 to 30 knots. /Issued 352 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016/ Latest observations show the first cold front has made its way through the Panhandles and in its wake, colder temperatures and windy conditions are expected throughout the day today with high temperatures dropping below average for early December.
229 PM EST Tue Dec 6 2016 Complex low pressure extending from the Ohio River Valley to Southeast Coast will move northeast and be mainly off the Mid- Atlantic Coast late tonight. Dry high pressure will briefly build across the forecast area for Wednesday.
Expect the lower ceilings to mix out by 07/15Z to 07/17Z. /issued 430 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016/ WV imagery shows zonal flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, as an upper-lvl trough moves thru the MS Valley. At the sfc, a cold front is moving thru the area, w/fropa thru KMAF by 10Z. Biggest concerns this forecast will be possible precipitation developing along the I-10 corridor as models bring in a mid-lvl trough from the west.
High pressure will strengthen at the surface over Central Indiana as low pressure pushes farther east.
The H5 short wave over the lower Mississippi Valley will move rapidly east northeast today. Rapid drying aloft should keep any showers/tstorms from developing along the cold front as it moves across the CWA this afternoon. The warm front to our south has not been progged very well by the models and it still remains south of the CWA.