Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): A strong 500mb ridge over the Four Corners region will be the main influence for the weather across Deep South Texas through the short term period. As far as temperatures, the increase in low-level moisture and cloud cover will keep afternoon highs on Tuesday a touch cooler compared to today, but still very warm, with highs expected to reach the low-mid 90s in most spots; western parts of the CWFA will still likely hit the upper 90s to near 100F.
141 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 High pressure ridging into the Upper Lakes from the northern Plains will yield a quiet and seasonable start to the work week. Highs will mainly be in the 70s but with onshore flow near Lake Superior expect it to remain cooler there. A mainly clear and seasonable night is expected tonight with high pressure ridging into the U.
247 PM MDT Mon Jun 14 2021 High Pressure will remain firmly in control through Tuesday evening when a strong, but relatively dry cold front moves through the area. Rest of the week looks dry and slightly warmer than normal with highs remaining in the 70s and 80s. SYNOPSIS: High Pressure remains in control through Tuesday evening when a strong but relatively dry cold front moves through.
Despite how low the potential is for damaging storms, given the high impact they could cause if they do occur, it is worth emphasizing for those who live and who are recreating there today. A cold front will then steadily march eastward overnight tonight, bringing another round of thunderstorms in the early hours for north central Idaho, with storms then continuing into northwest Montana through Tuesday. Winds of 25-35 mph and gusts 40-50 mph and humidity of 9-15 percent will develop ahead of the cold front in southwest Montana on Tuesday, which will cause critical fire weather conditions through Tuesday evening.
306 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 High pressure ridging into the Upper Lakes from the northern Plains will yield a quiet and seasonable start to the work week. Highs will mainly be in the 70s but with onshore flow near Lake Superior expect it to remain cooler there. A mainly clear and seasonable night is expected tonight with high pressure ridging into the U.
Temperatures are in the lower to mid 90s F right now over the plains. There is a pretty weak Denver cyclone centered around southwestern Weld County right now. The upper ridge will stay right over the CWA tonight and Tuesday with very weak flow aloft. The low level winds will be diurnally driven and pretty weak.
Otherwise, a slow warming trend is expected over the next few days as upper high builds over the four corners with upper ridge axis extending east into Oklahoma.
312 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Northerly flow around high pressure over James Bay and northern Ontario will bring cooler and less humid air to central Indiana for the short term. Several waves will drop southeast across central Indiana moving in between a northern Quebec upper low and high amplitude Rockies and northern Plains ridge. There they have held on in the lower 60s. Otherwise, look for near seasonable temperatures with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s and comfortable humidity levels.
/issued 331 AM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021/ Upper level high pressure will amplify across the 4-Corners area later today and tonight with northeast steering flow across the Texas South Plains region.
It was a cooler start this morning than previous days thanks to some drier air that has filtered in across the region. Temperatures are warming quickly however as skies will remain clear throughout the day as upper level ridging continues to build into the area from the west over the next few days.
Quiet weather conditions for the short term period under the influence of northwest flow aloft due to upper level ridging set up across the Rockies. Weak leeside troughing over eastern Colorado with a high pressure centered to the south into Oklahoma and Texas. Ample warm air advection from the low level flow will push afternoon high temperatures into the mid 90s. The leeside trough will be deeper due to increased divergence aloft off the Rockies seeing wind gusts up to 20-25 mph through the peak heating of the afternoon.
1234 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Thunderstorms, some strong to severe, are expected again today as a cold front sinks across the area.
Another trough will move south through the western Great Lakes on Tuesday. With the dry airmass, lows likely will fall mainly into the 50s tonight with some 40s possible in cooler central WI locations.
The airmass remains far too dry to generate any moist convection late this afternoon or early this evening beneath the strong high pressure dome which settled over the area this weekend. More heat is expected Tuesday with the high lingering over the region, and afternoon highs are likely to continue to break records with the hottest temperatures of the year expected.
High pressure brings dry weather and cooler temperatures for the remainder of the workweek. Skies and rain showers clear out tomorrow night as high pressure begins to move in. Cooler temperatures are also expected as lows will drop into the upper 40s and low 50s. High pressure will be in place for the short term period.
Meanwhile, a lake breeze will continue to march inland, bringing some cooler and drier conditions. High pressure will build in tonight, leading to light and variable winds, though still holding a northerly component.
1251 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Low pressure will move away from the region today. A cold front will approach the region by the middle of the week. The Lowcountry/Coastal Empire will remain in between newly developed Tropical Depression 2 off the NC coast and an approaching cold front to the west. This activity may reach the far inland portions of the Lowcountry/Coastal Empire near the CSRA/eastern Midlands. Low temperatures tonight are expected to range in the low to mid 70s. Tuesday: The axis of a mid-level trough will continue to drift farther from the area as a cold front approaches from the north.
257 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Temperatures will be the main issue for the period with upper ridging and very quiet conditions. The upper ridge continues to amplify over the Rockies and western Plains, with much of the region seeing clear skies. The light winds and clear skies overnight should allow temps to fall into the lower 50s, and easterly fetch to the wind will actually bring some weak cool air advection tomorrow as the highest upper heights remain centered to our west. Upper ridging over the Northern Plains will flatten as an upper low develops into central Canada.
343 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 A cold front will approach the region by the middle of this week. A cold front will approach the area from the west. Some sea breeze showers and weak storms, mainly near the GA coast, should dissipate quickly by this evening, Additional showers and storms moving southeast from the Midlands this evening may reach the far inland portions of the Lowcountry/Coastal Empire near the CSRA/eastern Midlands, possibly interacting with the sea breeze. Low temperatures are expected to range from the lower 70s inland to mid 70s at the coast/Lake Moultrie. Tuesday: A cold front will approach the region in the afternoon hours. High temperatures Tuesday will reach into the low to mid 90s inland and upper 80s at the coast, with upper 60s inland to low 70s at the coast overnight.
256 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 A strong ridge, centered over the Rockies and High Plains, remains of much of the region.
Mid level high pressure system continues to anchor just east of the Four Corners Region with northerly H500 into the Panhandles. Warm and muggy conditions will continue with highs tomorrow in the low to mid 90s along with Td values ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s.
1134 AM MDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Early morning upper level analysis has large ridge over the central CONUS with deep trof off the West Coast. At the surface, weak low pressure is located across south central SD, with high pressure covering the remainder of the Northern Plains. Another very warm day is expected today as central CONUS ridge axis shifts into the Northern Plains. Upper ridge axis remain over the area on Tuesday, with dry conditions expected.
Lows will drop into the lower 70s in rural areas, but remain in the mid/upper 70s in the cities.
257 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Cold front pushing south across Illinois and Indiana this afternoon is evident mainly in the sfc wind fields, with a decent post-frontal northerly wind surge. Progged low-level thicknesses and H8 temps support max temps as much as 10 degrees cooler than today in some spots.
High pressure continues to build into Middle Tennessee behind a cold front that is now south of the region.
High pressure with drier and cooler air will cover the area mid to late week. A closed upper low stalled over eastern Canada will place us solidly in northwest flow.
ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 94 68 87 63 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 66 83 61 82 / 10 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 91 64 83 60 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 61 80 57 79 / 10 10 0 0 10.
This convection is in despite a very strong upper ridge in place across the Rockies. High temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than what occurs today.
Highs will be several degrees cooler today but still 10-15 degrees above normal as a Pacific trough starts to move inland. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will arrive late this afternoon and evening across eastern Oregon as the trough comes inland and spread to the West Central Mountains overnight. The main trough axis will push through the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday and continue the chance of showers and thunderstorms across the far northwest portion of our area. Elsewhere will be dry, but the trough will usher in cooler temperatures and breezy west to northwest winds.
I will leave in 10% pops for the far northeast corner this evening with the high resolution models in mind. The warming trend will continue Monday as the ridge over the Rockies continues to build.
With dewpoints in the lower 70s mainly along and east of Interstate 35, expect heat index values in the 102 to 108 range for the rest of this afternoon. Highs are expected to reach the lower 90s across the Hill Country to mid 90s along the I-35 corridor and up to 99 degrees along the Rio Grande.
An upper trough will move over the area on Tuesday.
Most of the high-res CAMs show convective initiation over northeast WY this afternoon, with cell motion to the southeast. Tuesday will be warmest (hottest if you prefer) day this week as the center of the 500mb heat ridge is over the central Rockies.
329 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Temperatures will top out in the low to mid 90s this afternoon with overnight lows in the 60s. This warm trend will continue through much of the week as ridge axis currently positioned out west will gradually shift eastwards.
In addition, with the ambient upper-level trough still positioned over the Florida Peninsula, expecting increasing shower and isolated thunder coverage for the overnight hours.
There is a backdoor cold front that is sliding south and could produce enough lift to break the cap and get a few storms fired off, but the only model supporting this possibility is the NAMNEST.
Some upper level ridging and other features to the east will lead to northerly mid level flow across the area.
Expect dry conditions to continue tonight into Tuesday as dry cold front to our north pushes through mid state region this evening. As high pressure influences originating out of Manitoba/Ontario Providences in Canada start building across mid state region, seasonal lows expected tonight with highs on Tuesday low to mid 80s, around 80 Cumberland Plateau Region with even less humid conditions expected.
Maybe a few clouds west where lows will be in the lower 60s, compared to clear skies east with lows in the lower 50s. Upper ridging slides east and becomes centered over the Dakotas on Tuesday, with a potent thermal ridge of 850 mb temperatures over 30 C just to our west across the Northern Rockies. Warmest temperatures should stay outside of the forecast areas, with highs across the forecast area from the lower 90s west to mid 80s east.
An upper low will then move through the area tonight and Tuesday, bringing back another period of showers to the area. Cooler conditions will then take hold of the area through mid-week. This area is being driven by a potent short wave trough aloft. However, a trailing upper low is evident on water vapor imagery and will translate toward WNY this evening.
Rising heights aloft Tuesday will increase highs a few degrees, ranging from well into the 80s east of I-29 to the lower 90s in much of SD, NE, and IA.
255 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 The mid/upper level trough will linger over the eastern U.
1222 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 High pressure has yielded clear skies and near calm winds across the area this morning with temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s. The stout mid level high centered near the Four Corners and accompanying ridge across the west central CONUS will continue to drive our weather for the next several days. High temperatures this afternoon will reach the low to mid 90s (warmest temperatures in far eastern KS and along KS/MO border with slightly cooler temperatures as you head east), but dewpoints will remain quite low for June standards.
The weather pattern will dry out for midweek with noticeably cooler nights and less humidity.
High pressure will keep dry weather over the area through the period. Today Through Tuesday Night The upper level high pressure system is now centered over New Mexico and continues to expand. This high will provide a northwest flow aloft for Arkansas through Tuesday night. Dry air has filtered into the state behind a cold front. A backdoor cold front will enter from the northeast Tuesday and bring a reinforcing shot of dry air. Lower dew points will bring lower humidity as highs today climb into the lower to mid 90s, and into the upper 80s to mid 90s Tuesday. Lows tonight and Tuesday night will be in the mid 60s to the lower 70s.
Cooler and much less humid conditions will settle in through mid week. In the interim, cooler and drier air will spread across the area and prevent highs from going much above 80 today and Tuesday.
1235 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 A cold front moved through Minnesota and western Wisconsin yesterday before stalling in Iowa overnight. There is another disturbance north of Lake Superior this morning that will bring another reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air for tonight and Tuesday. Both the EC/GFS continue to support a building mid-upper level ridge across the Rockies, and extending northward into the Canadian Prairie early this week.
1231 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Summary: High pressure will bring quiet and warm conditions to start the week before the pattern turn more active for the end of the week and into the weekend. High pressure was located over North Dakota and into the Canadian Prairies this morning with an area of low pressure over northwestern Ontario. A cold front trailed from this low to just north of the Winnipeg area and then to the northwest.
Cooler and much less humid conditions will settle in through mid week. Canadian high pressure will build in for the middle of the week with light winds, mainly clear skies, large diurnal temp ranges and low humidity levels. Flow pattern does flatten out a bit by late in the week with models in good agreement on a more progressive northern stream trough breaking down a High Plains ridge.
302 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Quiet weather for the short term as we remain in the subsidence and northwest flow region of the ridge that is building to our west. In WI, they'll be close enough to the high for another shot at seeing lows into the upper 40s.
315 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 High pressure will remain in control of the weather for the next several days. Cooler temperatures are likely with overnight lows in the middle 50s to around 60, and daytime highs in the middle 80s. Plenty of sunshine tomorrow, but with cooler northeasterly winds daytime highs will only reach into the lower to middle 80s.
High pressure and weak cold air advection at 850mb indicates temps tonight a few to several degrees cooler than last night.
Diegan Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 87 63 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 83 61 82 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 64 83 60 82 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 80 57 79 52 / 0 0 0 10 0.
Much cooler tonight. Upper level ridge south of this jet streak impressive to say the least, with nearly 600 decameter center near the Four Corners, with ridge apex extending north into the northern reaches of Saskatchewan. Downstream response is as one would expect, with deep troughing maturing across northeast NOAM, including the Great Lakes. Deep north flow will continue for the next several days, bringing will it sharply cooler conditions. North winds will continue to usher in a progressively cooler airmass, helping drop temperatures into the upper 40s to middle 50s (actually about normal for this time of year). Cooler, drier weather ahead. High Impact Weather Potential: Fire weather concerns Pattern Synopsis: Impressive ridging centered over the 4 Corners will continue to amplify into Canada into midweek as troughing dips across the Great Lakes and NE CONUS.
245 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Today thru D3 Slightly "cooler" temperatures this afternoon due to the MCS that moved through last night. Instead of yesterday's heat indices that spiked in some locations to 110, current HI's are in the lower 90s to lower 100s. If it falls near the higher end of that range, issuance of a Heat Advisory will be considered.
VFR conditions are expected throughout the period with light and variable winds as high pressure dominates over the region. It was a cooler start this morning than previous days thanks to some drier air that has filtered in across the region. Temperatures are warming quickly however as skies will remain clear throughout the day as upper level ridging continues to build into the area from the west over the next few days.
1252 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Summary: High pressure will bring quiet and warm conditions to start the week before the pattern turn more active for the end of the week and into the weekend. High pressure was located over North Dakota and into the Canadian Prairies this morning with an area of low pressure over northwestern Ontario. A cold front trailed from this low to just north of the Winnipeg area and then to the northwest.
226 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Short term looking quiet weather wise with cooler temperatures and very comfortable humidity levels. A secondary weak cold front will work its way across the region from north to south late this afternoon and early this evening. Nighttime temperatures will fall into the lower half of the 60s each night, and would not be surprised to see some mid or upper 50s in normally colder/sheltered locations.
Lower dewpoints today have kept heat indices at bay and expect the same for Tue afternoon, along with cooler lows in the morning. A mid level vort max moving out of eastern KS will traverse eastern OK around the subtropical ridge thru tomorrow morning but its associated cloud cover will likely stay to our east.
323 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Water vapor loop and RAP analysis shows an amplified mid-upper level pattern over the CONUS with a trough over the eastern Pacific and West Coast, ridging over the Intermountain West and Western Plains and a broad trough into the Great Lakes and ne CONUS. P early this afternoon, where dew points are highest (in the lower to mid 50s). Under mostly sunny skies and mixing to near 5 kft, max temps well inland from Lake Superior should get into the lower 70s.
1249 PM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 A ridge of high pressure will build westward from the 4 corners region this week bringing dangerously hot, life- threatening temperatures.
343 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 High pressure to the north feeding dry air into the region will allow for temperatures to fall quite a bit tonight, with lows again in the 50s to around 60. Winds will increase a tad Tuesday night as well ahead of an approaching trough.
For today, strengthening mid-level cold pool of the building thermal trough and streams of cirrus clouds aloft will aid in continued cooling of the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere, increasing mid-level lapse rates to around 6 C/km. Effective bulk shear values around 20 knots will decrease through the evening hours which will limit organization potential of storms, however, steep low- level lapse rates and lowering freezing levels will bring the potential to see small pea sized hail with stronger storms. Limited precipitation chances are expected to hold over southwest Michigan, where the better CAPE gradient resides, as high pressure and associated dry air filters across Southeast Michigan.
1107 AM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 High pressure will be in control for most of the week, with several days of dry weather expected.
940 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 High pressure will remain in control of the weather for the next several days. Cooler temperatures are likely with overnight lows in the middle 50s to around 60, and daytime highs in the middle 80s. The upper trough is shifting east of Illinois along with the surface cold front that dropped SE through the area today. Slightly cooler air will settle into our forecast area, dropping lows tonight about 2-5 degrees below last night, and limiting tomorrows highs about 3-4 degrees below today. The lower dewpoints will set up a banner summer day. Plenty of sunshine tomorrow, but with cooler northeasterly winds daytime highs will only reach into the lower to middle 80s.
/Tonight through Tuesday night/ Well so much for having such little faith in what was a really good heat index forecast as this cold front has done fairly well for much of our I-20 corridor, despite a hot start having not really cooled off much last night. High pressure at it's core anyway, is keeping to our north with low to mid 60 Tds in central and NE AR regionally speaking. The plan is to keep this NE flow in the lower to middle atmosphere in play and work to propagate the air mass close enough to avoid another heat advisory with this slightly drier air into midweek.
Quiet weather for the short term as we remain in the subsidence and northwest flow region of the ridge that is building to our west. In WI, they'll be close enough to the high for another shot at seeing lows into the upper 40s.
An upper low continues to spin over the Northeast Pacific Ocean, spreading energy and moisture inland, bringing showers to some inland areas.
629 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Temperatures will top out in the low to mid 90s this afternoon with overnight lows in the 60s. This warm trend will continue through much of the week as ridge axis currently positioned out west will gradually shift eastwards.
An upper low will then move through the area tonight and Tuesday, bringing back another period of showers to the area. Cooler conditions will then take hold of the area through mid-week. Then, a trailing upper low is evident on water vapor imagery and will slide toward WNY this evening. The mid & upper level low over the region will finally push northeast out of the area, and open/phase with the overall trough over the region.
The upper low will move through on Tuesday with another chance of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure returns for the rest of the week with dry weather and cooler temperatures. A short wave rotating around the parent upper low is swinging through the region and interacting with some residual convective instability left over to produce this scattered-isolated showers/storms. The next wave with showers and a few storms will push through nw to se tomorrow as the main upper low tracks across the region. Skies and rain showers clear out tomorrow night as high pressure begins to move in. Cooler temperatures are also expected as lows will drop into the upper 40s and low 50s. High pressure will be in place for the short term period.