Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s indicate high amounts of low level moisture in the Pee Dee and eastern Midlands. An upper trough along the East Coast will push further east on Thursday as a massive upper ridge expands over the center of the country. The diffuse frontal boundary will be south of the region Thursday with high pressure ridging into the area at the surface. High pressure will shift slightly east on Friday as lee-side troughing develops. This in addition to subsidence from the ridge should limit convective activity so have maintained only slight chance pops. Lower to middle 90s expected for Thursday and slightly warmer temperatures on Friday as the ridge expands east over the area. An upper ridge over the center of the country will build eastward while a lee trough sits over the area at the surface.
214 AM MDT THU JUL 21 2016 Large scale mid-upper level ridging continues to dominated the pattern across the US, with monsoonal flow (apparent on WV imagery) rotating around the western edge of the ridge. Thursday: There is a shift in the ridge to the east allowing for southwest flow to develop over our cwa.
445 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 A strong upper level ridge centered over the southern plains will continue to expand northeast into the the western Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today causing hot and humid conditions. There is a low chance of thunderstorms west of I69 today, and across the entire area tonight as a weak low pressure system moves across southern Ontario and into the lower Great Lakes.
Thursday will be a bit warmer and dry. Heights aloft will be falling Thursday night as the low pressure over the West Coast approaches the zones. The associated cold front will cross the Rockies late Friday afternoon and spread east with cooler temperatures but only the northwest zones will see temperatures drop back to seasonal averages.
217 AM PDT THU JUL 21 2016 Low pressure moving across the Pacific Northwest will bring gusty winds this afternoon mainly north of Interstate 80. The main weather feature will be the low pressure moving across the Pacific Northwest today, which will bring gusty winds and choppy lake conditions mainly to areas north of I-80 this afternoon.
In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough across south central Canada into the northern Plains 12z Sun that moves a front through the area on Sun. This trough remains into Mon. Another trough moves into the northern MS river valley 12z Wed and into the upper Great Lakes. VCSH for convection possibly developing in the afternoon as a weak cold front passes through the area.
This will keep our area under the southeastern periphery of the ridge allowing small disturbances to rotate around the ridge and move into the area with some moderate to strong thunderstorm activity for the next several days.
Otherwise a weak cool front should slip south across the CWA tonight with temperatures a little cooler on Thursday. Pattern with the midlevel ridge to our southeast persists into Friday keeping most of any significant PoPs out in the higher terrain of Carbon and Albany counties for the afternoon and early evening hours.
148 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 Mainly dry conditions will persist into this morning before a warm front brings low chances for showers and storms into the forecast this afternoon and evening across northern Indiana and southern Michigan. Lows tonight will range between the upper 60s and lower 70s, with highs on today into the lower 90s.
353 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 A weak cold front will sag south of the area today, then slightly drier high pressure will briefly build in from the north. Atlantic high pressure will rebuild over the weekend while an inland trough prevails.
Skies will be mostly clear tonight with the area under a temporary high pressure ridge. Overnight lows will only be in the 50s and 60s in and around the Lower Columbia Basin, and in the 40s and 50s in the mountains. A low pressure system will be moving onshore and will bring some cumulus clouds and some isolated thunderstorms to the Cascades by Thursday evening.
Moisture will again be limited over much of the forecast today with the suppressing influence of a large ridge of high pressure covering much of the eastern half of the nation. If a thunderstorm occurs in this region it will most likely be limited mainly to the higher terrain on the Cumberland Plateau and along the North Carolina border.
304 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016 It is becoming more apparent that the biggest heat wave of the season is about to hit the region as mid level high pressure remains anchored over the central Plains, and even begins to expand further east as we get into the weekend.
Dry southwest flow will continue over the area as an upper low resides off the West Coast. Temperatures will be hot this afternoon, with highs around 100F in the lower valleys. The upper low will move through Washington tonight and reach the ID panhandle by late Friday afternoon. The upper low will drag a dry cold front through the region tonight.
212 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 High pressure in control with dry and stable air.
High temperatures will be in the 80s and 90s with some valley locations reaching the lower 100s. A Pacific Northwest low will keep pressure gradient tighter across western Humboldt county today before winds diminish across the CWA Friday as the influence of the passing trough wanes.
318 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016 Similar to previous nights across the area, with temperatures still holding in the low 80s for much of the area at this early hour. Outflow boundary has made progress across western Kansas from convection on the high plains, and may make a run at the north central counties but not expecting much in the way of a sensible weather impact.
129 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will build southeast across Pennsylvania tonight, and then off the Mid Atlantic coast Thursday and Friday.
/ISSUED / Evening upper air analysis shows Southeast Texas remaining on the southern periphery of a strong upper ridge centered over the Southern Plains, with mid level heights nearly 600 decameters. For the rest of today, subsidence from the upper ridge will again keep most of Southeast Texas dry. The upper ridge appears to nudge farther northwest of the region during the day on Friday and there is fairly good model consensus for slightly higher PoPs on Friday (as opposed to today) as a result. This shift may also allow for a few weak disturbances rotating around the ridge to reach Southeast Texas on Friday (further aiding in convective development).
The remainder of the weekend looks dry with seasonal temperatures as high pressure builds into the northeast. Rising upper level heights and high pressure in the vicinity will bring the area another mostly sunny day with just some cirrus mainly in the northern forecast area. Model soundings still show significant CAPE with the NAM more robust then the GFS but this is based on the surface dew points reaching the lower 70s. Significant theta-e ridge and high PWAT values of 1.
411 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 High pressure in control with dry and stable air.
629 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 High pressure in control with dry and stable air.
The dominate expansive ridge of high pressure continues to suppress the deepest moisture to our south keeping overnight marine convection very limited. Any convection that forms will once again favor the Lower and Middle Valley along and just north of the river.
340 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016 The upper level high pressure system remain entrenched across the Central Plains. Southern Plains and portions of the lower Mississippi Valley early this morning. Sea-breeze convection slow to get going across Southern LA due to the proximity of the UL ridge, but the day has just begun and it will likely increase in coverage later this morning.
345 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016 Upper level high pressure will bring yet another hot and humid day to the region.
In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough across south central Canada into the northern Plains 12z Sun that moves a front through the area on Sun. This trough remains into Mon. Another trough moves into the northern MS river valley 12z Wed and into the upper Great Lakes.
430 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016 (Today and Tonight) Hot and dry conditions continue under the upper ridge.
338 AM MDT THU JUL 21 2016 Little change in the upper pattern was noted on the 00z h5 hand Analysis chart across the lower 48. High pressure over the Southern plains continues to help draw monsoon moisture northward Across the 4 corners region.
303 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 High pressure will build into the area today and Friday.
/Issued 254 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016/ The center of the upper level high pressure system is found from the Texas Panhandle into south central Kansas this morning. This high should keep any shower and thunderstorm activity to our west again today. The northwest edge of the upper level ridge will break down some on Friday.
The local forecast area remains on the eastern edge of a strong subtropical ridge centered across the southern Plains, and several weak mid-level disturbances pivoting ssewd across the region have resulted in a fairly thick layer of cirroform clouds this evening.
In the middle and upper levels, (700-200 mb), the latest available satellite imagery overlaid with available model streamline analysis as of 300 am depicts the center of a expansive warm core middle and upper level anticyclone that is located over the Arklatex area. The eastern periphery of this ridging pokes into Florida and areas just west of the Keys. A trough axis extends from Newfoundland to the Northernmost Bahamas. The northern extent of a Southern Caribbean Sea ridge reaches near Cuba. Temperatures outside of activity are in the lower 80s with dewpoints in the upper 70s.
330 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 Today will be seasonable and rain-free behind a weak cold front.
1023 MB high pressure centered near Erie, PA is providing us with a great evening. It will become noticeably warmer Thursday afternoon, with highs ranging in the 80s. A few normally warmer spots in our lake plain areas could approach 90. Most of our models suggest the approach of a mid level short wave and surface cold front moving through the eastern Great Lakes, possibly bringing a dying MCS complex across central New York during the overnight to early Friday morning period. Friday looks to be the most interesting day of this forecast and will feature the approach of another broad mid level short wave trof supporting the actual passage of the surface cold front by early afternoon.
Northern California remains under dry southwest flow aloft between an upper low centered off the Norcal coast and strong high pressure over the central US.
150 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 A cold front will drop south across the area this evening, bringing drier weather in its wake.
353 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016 Evening upper air analysis shows Southeast Texas remaining on the southern periphery of a strong upper ridge centered over the Southern Plains, with mid level heights nearly 600 decameters. For the rest of today, subsidence from the upper ridge will again keep most of Southeast Texas dry. The upper ridge appears to nudge farther northwest of the region during the day on Friday and there is fairly good model consensus for slightly higher PoPs on Friday (as opposed to today) as a result. This shift may also allow for a few weak disturbances rotating around the ridge to reach Southeast Texas on Friday (further aiding in convective development).
652 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 A strong upper level ridge centered over the southern plains will continue to expand northeast into the the western Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today causing hot and humid conditions. There is a low chance of thunderstorms west of I69 today, and across the entire area tonight as a weak low pressure system moves across southern Ontario and into the lower Great Lakes.
Montana will be on the northern periphery today of a large upper ridge that covers most of the nation. An upper trough moves into the Pacific Northwest tonight and turns the flow aloft to the southwest.
There is a break in the ridge in the form of an upper trough along the eastern seaboard. At the surface, high pressure will continue to dominate with adjoining high centers across the lower Mississippi River Valley and the Midwest. As the upper trough slides south through Thursday, the southeast CONUS will be placed in an area of increased diffluence aloft. The trough moves east for Friday with the central CONUS ridge building back in.
325 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016 This will be the hottest day of the heatwave so far as the RAP and GFS are showing upper ridge building over the area today.
Sprawling anticyclone centered aloft of central U. high pressure at lower levels settles southward to northern peninsula. Upper ridge slowly erodes with western Atlantic anticyclone gradually becoming dominant. nearby ridge axis will keep winds light through the period.
232 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016 Radar is quiet this morning with surface obs showing continued muggy conditions with temperatures and dewpoints both in the low to mid 70s. Strong H5 ridge centered over Oklahoma will continue to be main influencing factor in our weather today into tomorrow, with Middle Tennessee in a light northerly flow regime on the east side of the ridge.
240 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016 A strong ridge of high pressure aloft will remain anchored over the central and southern high plains through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Mid level heights will reach as high as 598 decameters which indicates subsidence will be strong across North-Central Texas, despite moisture trapped within the ridge as shown by morning water vapor satellite imagery.
1203 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016 Large mid-upper high will continue to dominate the south-central CONUS during the period, while subtropical moisture and embedded vort lobes circulate around its periphery.
238 AM MDT THU JUL 21 2016 Persistent upper high remains anchored over Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle with a resultant Southwest flow aloft over Colorado. The upper high is progged to shift slowly Westward into New Mexico by later tonight but the moist plume still expected to remain over Northern Colorado with little overall change expected.
An offshore upper low will move toward Western Washington today and inland tonight.
High pressure will remain in control of our weather today. The main upper level ridge will shift slightly more to our west tonight. This will allow the low level winds to turn towards the southwest on Friday, ushering in higher moisture. A wave in the upper level flow is progged to drop southeast around the ridge towards our area late Friday afternoon, bringing shower and thunderstorm chances back into the forecast.
This Evening Through Thursday Night A large-scale trough covered much of the wrn/cntrl CONUS with an upper low over srn BC and another over ncntrl ND. Wrap-around moisture with the ND upper low had spread considerable clouds and some rain/snow showers over nern WY/wrn SD. For tonight, the upper low will move over sern Manitoba with rising heights over the CWA. An upper trough will extend wwd from this low to the other upper low over srn BC.
The attendant cold front is draped near the KS/MO border with a warm front extending eastward, south of the KC metro. The most likely area to destabilize within the convergent zone will be east of the Highway 65 corridor, and south of the I-70 corridor.
Low pressure to the north will move east and bring an increase in west and northwest winds today into tomorrow. Lows will range from the lower to middle 40s. Highs on Thursday should mainly be in the lower to middle 60s.
/issued 453 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016/ High pressure will dominate through the period.
845 PM MST Wed May 11 2016 A high pressure system will build into the region for a significant warming trend through the end of the work week.
Thursday at this point looks mainly dry with ridging in control of the weather over the area. With 700 millibar temperatures running about 5 degrees warmer than on Wednesday and more sunshine expected, look for high temperatures to average 10 to 15 degrees warmer on Thursday when compared to Wednesday.
At 0430Z a weak cold front extended from KSNL to KDUC to KSPS.
A cold front currently draped across N. Meanwhile, winds aloft will become more WNW by later on Thursday ahead of a ridge building into the Desert SW.
Meanwhile, an upper level ridge of high pressure is moving ashore into northern and southern California. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure is building eastward across the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains. Mostly clear skies are anticipated tomorrow as high pressure dominated the area. Winds tonight look to blow from the northwest shifting to more of a westerly direction tomorrow as the center of high pressure starts to slide south of the area. As for temperatures, lows tonight look to range from the lower 40s across portions of west central Kansas to lower 50s across portions of south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow are progged to range from the lower 70s across portions of west central Kansas to upper 70s across south central Kansas.
1137 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016 Temperatures will trend modestly warmer through the end of the week.
No changes to the ongoing forecast this evening as low pressure exits and high pressure begins to build across the forecast area. This Evening Through Thursday Night A large-scale trough covered much of the wrn/cntrl CONUS with an upper low over srn BC and another over ncntrl ND. Wrap-around moisture with the ND upper low had spread considerable clouds and some rain/snow showers over nern WY/wrn SD. For tonight, the upper low will move over sern Manitoba with rising heights over the CWA. An upper trough will extend wwd from this low to the other upper low over srn BC.
Surface wise, a weakening and retreating western atlantic ridge extends across the sunshine state. Winds are light and chaotic, but back in the low to mid levels. Given the close proximity of the deep layered western atlantic ridge, limited moisture, a stable air mass along with a decelerating low level flow prompts only isolated dime pops.
Synoptic subsidence behind the H700-500 wave will aid in clearing skies overnight with northwesterly winds helping to bring in cooler and drier air. The next precipitation window will be driven by one last piece of forcing associated with the current system as a last spoke of the current Manitoba upper level low swings down into the upper Mississippi valley.
Showers immediately surrounding the low may clip northern areas tonight so will maintain some low pops. Farther east, band of shra in zone of lower condensation pressure deficits, low level convergence, and impulse ahead of the low weakening and shifting east. Clouds currently showing more cumuliform nature so could see some clearing south of the low. Column does not cool off much and should see enough mixing to hold temperatures up into the low/mid 40s. Short wave rotating around upper low will continue to warrant low end pops with best chances to our south.
After a lull continues through mid afternoon, I expect new convection to fire once again in southern Iowa along and just north of the developing low pressure. A strong short wave trof is moving into eastern NE early this afternoon, and this feature will provide lift for additional storms this evening. The southeasterly winds and dewpoints in the lower 60s to near 70 suggest that a tornado cannot be ruled out on any storm moving east of the main flow, thus right turning supercells are most favored for tornado potential. Lows in the lower 50s west to near 60 east should climb back to the mid 60s northwest to lower 70s east as deep mixing takes place offsetting the cold advection. A large trough is forecast to develop across north-central North America with the main upper low positioned over Ontario and Manitoba.
Otherwise, tonight will be muggy with lows in the low to mid 60s.
Otherwise the upper low continues to meander around southwest Manitoba. The latest water vapor imagery details a closed mid/upper level low circulating over north central North Dakota. This low is forecast to eject into Manitoba tonight, and then dumbbell around Ontario over the weekend. Visible satellite imagery and surface observations reveal a wide swath of strato-cumulus clouds associated with a low level cold/moist pocket of air underneath the large upper low. For the short term period tonight through Thursday, scattered rain showers across north central North Dakota will slowly shift into the Turtle Mountains tonight in association with the movement of the upper low.
705 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016 Temperatures will trend modestly warmer through the end of the week.
1200 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016 A surface cold front had push south of the Interstate 44 corridor late this evening while an 850 MB front was positioned farther west and extended from southeastern Kansas into central Missouri.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 86 62 79 / 20 50 60 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 84 62 76 / 30 50 80 10 Oak Ridge, TN 64 84 61 77 / 30 60 80 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 82 60 73 / 50 50 80 20.
/ISSUED 246 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016/ The 19z surface analysis indicated that the nearly stationary frontal boundary/warm front was extending into middle and southeast Tennessee from southwest Kentucky. A cold front is progged to be moving through the midwest tonight and should make it southeast to the Ohio river by between 12z and 18z Thursday. Model forecast soundings indicate that the forecast area should become moderately unstable by Thursday afternoon as a pre-frontal trough is expected to develop to the west of the area.
Cold front is finally exiting the area with only small lingering chcs for convection across the far southeast counties this evening. The upper trough will remain over the region with another wave forecast to move across the region tonight with additional lift in the 800-500mb layer. A dry and quiet day should prevail across the area on Thursday with highs in the lower to middle 70s along with dewpoints in the 40s.
Warm inland temperatures should peak Thursday as high pressure builds over the area.
Also storms are starting to develop ahead of a cold front pushing through Missouri.
It should be a little more active tomorrow as showers and thunderstorms develop along and ahead of a cold front that will be moving into Southeast Texas from the north and northwest.
primary wind shift/surface trof axis has lagged the rain and still lies roughly north-south along an axis from roseau. fog is likely to form and persist into Thursday morning within the trof axis where surface winds are generally light. The area of low pressure that is bringing this rain will slowly move across MN tonight and into the northern Great Lakes by thursday evening. 30 with the higher amounts in nw WI. The rain will taper off to showers Thursday morning as the low moves east but skies are expected to remain mostly cloudy with lingering stratus much of Thursday.
The last few visible satellite images showed what looks like a slug of smoke working southeast across this area on the far western perifery of the upper low. Temperatures in the 30s seem reasonable, though those areas with denser smoke may stay a few degrees warmer than forecast if it hangs in all night. Tonight, pressure gradients relax as ridging briefly settles in ahead of the next system Thursday evening.
HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING IN THESE LOCATIONS /35 TO 37 DEGREES/ AND THEREFORE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FROST ADVISORIES FOR THIS ISSUANCE. WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 40S.
It did take awhile for the low stratus to clear areas from Del Mar to La Jolla, so that is where the coolest temps across our service area were today. The high at Del Mar Beach only reached 64F degrees. /Gregoria Dry and warmer weather through Thursday, with nighttime and morning low clouds along the coast.