Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Current surface analysis shows an area of low pressure centered over southeast Minnesota with a cold front through western Iowa and into portions of eastern Nebraska and Kansas. Ahead of this feature, breezy southwest winds have brought a surge of Gulf moisture northward evident by dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s across southern Illinois, southwest Kentucky and the lower MS River Valley. The current activity across MO/IL is associated with an axis of higher moisture /dewpoints 65+/ and forcing associated with the low-level jet. As the low-level jet weakens by mid-morning, the showers and storms will diminish in coverage and intensity. The cold front approaches the area from the northwest on Friday.
1047 AM EDT Thu May 18 2017 High pressure over the western Atlantic will extend in to the area through Friday.
1106 AM EDT Thu May 18 2017 Currently - A large northwest Atlantic high pressure system extends a ridge into the southeastern United States and the Gulf of Mexico. Short Term Update - Moderate to fresh easterly flow will continue through this afternoon thanks to the strong ridge to our north. A strong ridge extending from the Atlantic into the southeastern United States will maintain fresh easterly breezes on Florida Keys waters.
Surface map this morning shows essentially a summer-like pattern with high pressure centered off the East Coast, a warm, moist flow across Middle Tennessee, and a slow- moving boundary to our northwest.
High pressure nudging in from the northeast will keep skies variably cloudy and dry. GAH PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: Satellite imagery this morning reveals the main weather system is a large closed upper low currently centered over southeast Idaho and moving into Utah, essentially keeping precipitation well to our south. Today the low center drifts into Colorado and pauses.
725 AM EDT Thu May 18 2017 Bermuda high pressure will extend west into the southeastern U. A backdoor cold front will settle south through VA Fri night and into NC on Sat. Central NC will remain under the influence of Bermuda high pressure with the upper level ridge axis over the region shifting ever so slightly eastward today.
Convection should eventually evolve into a more linear mode Friday night as the cold front overtakes the dryline and surges into the forecast area.
Then, a cold front will enter northern Oklahoma around sunrise on Friday, bringing a minor wind shift and possibly some very low stratus to far northern Oklahoma. A cold front will move into northern Oklahoma on Friday, and by evening, it should be near I-44.
Lucie, Okeechobee counties) where better (higher) moisture resides in the low levels. Suppressed mid-levels remain in place with the presence of a strong ridge aloft, alleviating the need for thunder across our southern zones while keeping skies mostly clear further to the north. At the surface, the Atlantic ridge centered to our northeast will maintain moderately strong E to ESE flow.
503 AM MDT Thu May 18 2017 The closed low pressure system responsible for the return to more wintry conditions was centered just south of the Great Salt Lake early this morning. A lobe of vorticity moving through the base of the trough was just beginning to swing northeastward over the Four Corners area and was forecast to move northward over the Colorado mountains during the day. The eastern Uinta mountains, which have seen a bit of lull overnight, will see snow increase today as the low center wobbles over central Colorado bringing a more favorable northeast flow. Afternoon highs will be the cooler than yesterday and some of the coolest experienced in some time. Models suggest snowfall intensity will decrease as the low pushes east of the Continental Divide late tonight, but coverage should continue to be widespread.
1005 AM EDT Thu May 18 2017 Unseasonably warm conditions will continue today in southerly flow ahead of a cold front.
526 AM MDT Thu May 18 2017 Current surface analysis shows main area of low pressure across southeast CO, with inverted trough stretching back northwestward to a secondary low pressure area over central WY. Fairly strong high pressure in place across south central Canada. Most of the forecast area is dry for the time being, with some showers over mainly Campbell County WY right now as some moisture wraps northwestward around the low over UT. Temps are mostly in the low to mid 40s, with some 30s across the Black Hills.
It was a warm and humid early morning across the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas, with temperatures from the mid 60s to low 70s and dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. There will be enough instability, low level jet energy and high PW values for convection to persist across the area overnight however and with the high moisture content, heavy rain will be a good bet.
650 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017 12Z TAFS Plenty of low and mid level moisture across the area this morning will fall under the influence of a robust low pressure system dropping into the four corners region yielding another day of SCT to BKN cloud cover. /issued 350 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017/ Late night sfc analysis shows high pressure centered off the Carolina coast providing for a continued srly low-level flow over the forecast area. Water vapor imagery shows troffing over the wrn 2/3 of the CONUS with a cutoff low spinning into the Rockies this morning. Rain chances ramp up for the weekend as the low opens up and ejects newd into the nrn Plains/wrn Great Lakes, pulling an associated trof axis/sfc front towards the forecast area, along with more enhanced/deeper moisture.
935 AM PDT Thu May 18 2017 Mostly clear and warmer weather will begin today as offshore flow and high pressure aloft settles into the region. High pressure aloft and an offshore pressure gradient has eroded the deck of marine layer clouds with sunshine in full force. The dry air mass continues through the weekend as the high pressure aloft peaks, even as the offshore flow relaxes.
First, model guidance does have quite a bit of high clouds as the next upper low rotates into Colorado. High pressure over northern North Dakota with a lee low over Texas will generate a north south pressure gradient of 8mb, keeping winds from decoupling completely.
A quick update this morning to allow the Freeze warning to expire at 9 AM as many observation sites bottomed out in the lower 20s to near 30 and have now warmed to 32 to 35 deg in most areas of the Snake River Plain and Eastern Magic Valley. Huston Area of low pressure which brought our coldest May 17th on record across the area is centered near Salt Lake City early this morning. This has allowed for temperatures to drop to near or below freezing across these areas. Elsewhere, a broad swath of moisture originating from AZ wraps around the low, allowing for a continuation of snow showers along the Continental Divide region and south and west across the Pashimeroi, Lemhi and Sawtooth ranges.
A cold upper low centered over the region will slowly move east into Colorado by tonight.
A low pressure system over Utah will bring cool and breezy conditions to the area today along with some showers over Lincoln and Mohave Counties. A low pressure system over Utah this morning will shift east into Colorado later today. The reinforced shot of cooler air from the north will keep temperatures well below normal again today.
Continued moderate east to southeast flow around High Pressure centered well offshore of the Carolinas.
Upper low in Utah has elongated to southern Idaho and clouds are still moving westward across south-central Idaho this morning. Upper ridge off the northwest coast will begin a drying and warming trend today.
706 AM EDT Thu May 18 2017 Aviation A low pressure system will track from Wisconsin through Northern Lower Michigan today. A cold front associated with this system will track through the region today. A large area of high pressure then settles into Ontario for Friday. Another low pressure system moves in for the weekend leading to unsettled weather.
1134 AM EDT Thu May 18 2017 Update A low pressure system will track from Wisconsin through Northern Lower Michigan today. A cold front associated with this system will track through the region today. A large area of high pressure then settles into Ontario for Friday. Another low pressure system moves in for the weekend leading to unsettled weather. The cold front begins to touch off convection in our far southeast CWA this afternoon, but the bulk appears to be just south and east of our area.
1049 AM EDT Thu May 18 2017 High pressure will maintain dry weather and above normal temperatures through Friday.
451 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017 Cold front moving in to Palestine area at 4 am with showers and a few thunderstorms extending northeast of Palestine along the frontal boundary. Gusty northerly winds 10-20mph in the wake of the front will usher in cooler air beneath abundant cloud cover post frontal. Northerly winds continue as high pressure builds into the region and temperatures 5-10 degrees cooler for most of the region. May flirt with needing a wind advisory for the coastal areas from Galveston to Matagorda bay Sunday morning as stronger 925-800mb flow crosses the region with the passage of the upper trough. Fire danger Sunday looks minimal to slightly elevated due to RH values only falling to 30-35 percent in the afternoon thanks in large part to the cooler temperatures.
Upper level ridge axis is passing over the Intermountain West as of 3 AM MST. Precipitation totals will be greater across the higher elevations, and afternoon instability will bring a chance of thunderstorms for Sunday, mostly over southwest Idaho. With a cooler pattern in place, temperatures will drop down to about normal. Unsettled conditions begin early in the forecast period, with showers present after the trough passage earlier in the day.
330 AM PDT Sat Apr 22 2017 Dry today then several Pacific storms move through bringing cooler temperatures and mainly light precipitation.
522 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017 Low pressure tracking across the Tennessee Valley and Southeast United States will result in rain chances south of I 80 today, and south of I 70 Sunday. Areas of light rain have developed along a mid level trough ahead of the main approaching nrn stream upper trough.
255 AM MDT Sat Apr 22 2017 Northeast winds behind a cold front will bring cooler near normal temperatures to southern New Mexico and west Texas this weekend along with strong gusty winds along western facing mountain slopes.
Upper-air analyses showed a ridge over the eastern CONUS and a trough over the central Plains. Although the deep-layer ridge over our forecast area will be breaking down today, the approaching trough will still be too far away for any appreciable Q-G forcing. High temperatures will remain above average, with highs in the lower to mid 80s in FL, and mid to upper 80s in south Al and GA.
Cold front Currently moving into Central Texas and the Hill country and will progress southward through the day. though more cloud cover will keep things cooler than yesterday.
417 AM MDT Sat Apr 22 2017 High pressure will begin to build over the forecast area today, initiating a warming trend and providing dry weather. The current satellite water vapor image is showing high pressure building over the Great Basin with a low pressure system positioned over Missouri.
A rather cool and raw April day with temps in the low 40s as 925mb range -2 to 4C with a east northeast wind.
A ridge of high pressure is moving east across the Atlantic and away from our region while a cold front and short wave is pushing east across Texas. A warm and moist south flow will continue through the morning to afternoon hours between the departing ridge and advancing front. The front will clear the area tonight and a much cooler air mass Will move in.
Saturday night lows will flirt with freezing owing to a clear sky and light winds following the cool day. Mid-level ridge overhead on Sunday allows temperatures to rise to near normal.
355 AM PDT Sat Apr 22 2017 High pressure aloft near the West Coast will bring dry and warmer weather today with well above average high temperatures except near the beaches.
Low clouds continue to develop across much of the area ahead of an approaching cold front.
A line of showers most likely associated with the Cuban land breeze boundary is moving northward over the Florida Straits waters south and west of the lower Florida Keys, which may impact the lower keys after 09Z if it holds together. Model soundings predict this general profile prevailing through Sunday morning as a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf, Yucatan, and Western Cuba slowly organizes and moves towards the northeast over the Keys.
406 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017 Current surface analysis places high over the central plains, while to the north a cold front is lined up along the international border. Upper level analysis places weak high over South Dakota with ridge over the western United States. main focus will be aforementioned cold front which will gradually settle through northern North Dakota, pushing into central portions of the state late afternoon into the evening. Scattered rain showers will eventually develop along and behind the front, with some snow developing later tonight as cooler air works in. With cooler air pulling into the system, a conversion towards snow possible late.
The upper ridge axis, which extended from central Nevada too off the northern Baja coast this morning, will move across the state today resulting in slightly warmer daytime temperatures.
Other concern for tonight is the potential for freezing temperatures across the plains and frost/freeze concerns for agricultural interests, though this is looking like a low end risk given that the forecast models keep low clouds across the area through the night along with precipitation along the southeast mountains and I-25 corridor. This should keep temperatures above freezing across most of the area. Only area where subfreezing temperatures are expected would be the crest of the Palmer Divide where forecast is carrying up to an inch of snow accumulation.
1222 AM MDT Sat Apr 22 2017 Evening water vapor loop showed a mid/upper level low circulation located over central Wyoming. Additional snowfall amounts should be light but given rather cold temperatures overnight and the potential for freezing of water and additional snowfall between Cheyenne and Laramie have opted to post a winter wx advy for that area into Saturday morning. The weekend will see warming temperatures with any lingering pcpn ending Saturday morning and upper ridging nosing into the region. and in the 60s and the 70s over lower elevations Sunday as the upper ridge slides by. Temperatures look to be warm enough to keep precip type mainly rain, except for the mountains and Laramie Valley where we may see temps drop below freezing during the overnight hours to support snow.
411 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through tonight.
1111 PM MDT Fri Apr 21 2017 A a ridge building over the Great Basin tonight, cool air will continue filtering into western CO and eastern UT. The storm that affected the area yesterday and last night is now affecting predominantly eastern CO, but scattered snow showers over the higher mountains of the Continental Divide will continue until early Saturday morning. These should have only brief impacts on traveling and mostly due to locally decreased visibility in snow showers over the highest passes. Cool dry northwesterly flow will persist over the forecast area on Saturday night as a ridge of high pressure slides east over the intermountain west. As the ridge builds over the CWA a brief warming trend will develop. High pressure and warm air aloft moves back into the region on Sunday along with strong southwesterly winds.
407 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017 Much cooler today with brisk northerly winds, especially this morning.
Meanwhile, weak upper level ridging is moving slowly eastward across the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure is shifting slowly east across the Upper Midwest. An upper level trough was passing across western Kansas this afternoon. Saturday will be partly to mostly sunny and warmer with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Near freezing temperatures are possible Sunday morning with clear skies and light winds.
300 AM MDT Sat Apr 22 2017 Latest upper air analysis depicts a closed low over Eastern Kansas. Behind the closed low a ridge was building in from the northwest. Winds may peak in the late morning, then decrease slightly in the early afternoon then increase again in the mid/late afternoon following the trend of the winds in the low level jet. Along with the winds will be warmer temperatures. The breezy south winds will cause lows to be warmer than tonight.
402 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017 Unseasonably cool weather is expected today and Sunday in the wake of a strong cold front, though the break from the heat will be short-lived.
Any remnant precip chances across central Kansas early this morning will quickly dissipate by late morning as an upper level shorwave kicks east out of the Central Plains while drier air in the lower levels filters southward into western Kansas. Meanwhile, upper level ridging moving ashore off the Pacific will push eastward across the Intermountain West later today setting up a drier pattern that will finish out the weekend. Near freezing temperatures may be possible further west near the Colorado border, especially in low lying areas. Near freezing temperatures are possible Sunday morning with clear skies and light winds.
Computer models insist that driven by a breezy cold front, the precipitation activity will gradually shift to the southeast throughout the overnight hours, thus impacting east TX, deep east TX, northwest and central LA as well as the remainder of southwest AR. /issued 710 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017/ For the 22/00Z terminal forecast will prevail VFR flight categories until around 2204Z-2209Z when lowering clouds ahead of an approaching cold front with a band of showers and thunderstorms. The cold front will continue to push across the Four State Region with the convection shining Southeast with it.
657 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017 Low pressure will track along a stalled front over Tennessee today and tonight. High pressure centered over the northern plains and central Canada will slide east across the Great Lakes early in the week.
A cold front passage should shift just about all surface winds to the southwest near 00Z Sunday and allow for some gusts along with some showers and perhaps even a few hit and miss weak pulse thunderstorms near the Cascades tomorrow afternoon and evening.
with light northerly winds overnight expect to shift and become more northeasterly during the daytime hours as this ridge transitions into Kansas and Oklahoma.
400 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017 A cold front will settle south through VA this morning and into central NC this afternoon through tonight. The front will stall over southeastern NC by Sunday, in advance of a slow-moving area of low pressure that will track along the coast of the Carolinas through Mon night. The main sfc cold front stretched from western PA southwest into middle TN.
With light winds and clear skies tonight, have adjusted temperatures down a few degrees with lows in the lower to mid 30s. There may be some more cu developing on Saturday with surface heating along with warmer southwest winds. May have to adjust highs up a little across the region as warmer 925h air is advected in. Otherwise, the models all show a cold front dropping south into the region Saturday night into Sunday. With the model disagreement on the frontal location, temperatures will be tricky across mainly the northern cwa on Sunday afternoon with warm southwest winds or cooler northeast winds.
348 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017 Upper low is now over southwest Missouri with low clouds and areas of drizzle or fog over eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Latest surface analysis showed low over southwest AR with cold front extending south of the DFW area into far west TX.
Temperatures today will be noticeably cooler compared to recent days with highs stuck in the 50s except in the low 60s across south- central Kentucky. Clouds will stick around into the first part of Sunday, and with the upper level low nearby, there's a continued threat of showers across south-central Kentucky.
High pressure will deliver light winds today and tonight.
406 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017 An upper level low pressure system over southwest Missouri early this morning will continue to push slowly southeast today and tonight. Areas across northeast Mississippi which remain south of the front should warm into the 70s for highs today, with the remainder of the region to the north of the front much cooler, mainly in the 50s to lower 60s. In addition, deep layer shear in advance of the upper low should range from 30-40 kts across the near surface warm sector. The upper low will drift southeast across the Mid South tonight and Sunday. Much cooler temperatures will also continue through Sunday and Sunday night with highs in the 60s and lows mainly in the 40s.
352 AM MDT Sat Apr 22 2017 Upper level analysis has a rex block across the central CONUS with ridging across the Great Basin area. At the surface, weak high pressure is located across the Dakotas. An upper ridge will bring mild weather for the weekend. Upper flow will become southwesterly by Sunday night ahead of the approaching trough, and southwesterly winds will become breezy across south central SD on Sunday.
343 AM MDT Sat Apr 22 2017 Much of northern Colorado remains under a broad upper trof early this morning with latest impulse now moving into northwest Colorado. The back of the trof will slide east of the area this afternoon with increasing subsident flow with building high pressure over Colorado tonight.
An upper level low pressure center over south central Wyoming bringing widespread rain in the lower elevations with mountain snow will gradually move east with showers tapering off from late evening in the west to early morning in the east. High pressure will bring clearing and lighter winds on Saturday and Saturday night.
Preferred the cooler side of guidance lows tonight. Sunday will be sunny and warmer than today with light surface winds.
The east coast seabreeze will move inland this afternoon keeping temperatures near the coast in the lower 80s. Ridging will shift to the east tonight as an upper low approaches from the west. upper low forms over TN and shifts SE toward central GA. with vertical shear lagging behind the cold front/warm sector. So while a few strong storms are possible with cold front particularly over our northern counties.
133 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017 Atlantic high pressure will prevail through Saturday.
A cold front will bring showers to the Camas Prairie and north central Idaho by Sunday morning.
308 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017 Low pressure tracking across the Tennessee Valley and Southeast United States will result in rain chances this weekend, mainly south of I 70.
That frontal boundary strengthens somewhat tonight as it drifts south into the forecast area as a back door cold front and gains some overrunning moisture which will bring a chance of rain along the Canadian Border. Upper trough moves inland from the Pacific on Sunday which will bring deep moisture inland.
351 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017 High pressure today/tonight and Sunday will keep us dry, and as it shifts to the south, will also be responsible for milder air moving in ahead of a lee low. 850mb temperatures warm today from an initial starting point of between +3 and +5C to +7 and +9C this evening - with warm advection continuing overnight in southwest flow in the low levels.
413 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017 (Today and Tonight) Much cooler weather is on tap for today into Sunday morning. A cold front moved through the area last night, and has brought gusty north winds to the entire area.
High pressure will build over the area Saturday bringing a warming trend into Sunday.