Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): High pressure at the surface and aloft will dominate the weather pattern for Deep South Texas through the majority of the short term period. Thursday will be similar to today with highs in the low to mid 80s, but winds will shift to become more easterly as the high pressure continues to push off to the east and low pressure associated with Tropical Storm Eta pushes slightly northward into the the southern Gulf of Mexico.
Temperatures warmed into the low/mid 70s this afternoon with mostly sunny conditions after a cool sunrise. The environment remains pretty dry in the lower and middle troposphere, but we are seeing some high clouds streaming across the region.
despite upper level ridging building over the area from the west 850mb temperatures fall about 5F to 7F across the area.
654 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2020 High pressure will provide quiet weather until the end of this week. High pressure overhead keeps dry conditions for the next 12-18 hours with temperatures warming closer to normal with lows tonight in the upper 40s to low 50s and highs Thursday reaching the mid 70s. Confidence is low to the extent that rain will move inland past the highway 17 corridor, but a narrow stretch of light rain may develop for coastal communities Thursday late morning through the rest of the day. High pressure at the surface remains anchored from west to east north of local forecast area. High pressure brings mostly clear skies and light variable wind through tonight increasing to 10-15 kts into Thursday night.
Afternoon highs will creep up to the low to mid 80s.
Surface ridging will be nearly stationary over the southern and central Appalachians. Flow aloft will be relatively light, but there will be a weak mid/upper level trough advancing from the central and southern plains this afternoon, to the Ohio and Lower Mississippi valleys by late Thursday night. Clear skies and dry air will allow for continued large diurnal temperature ranges, especially in valleys, as ridge/valley low temperatures continue to show a notable difference.
1238 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2020 High pressure will provide quiet weather until the end of this week. High pressure overhead keeps dry conditions for the next 12-18 hours with temperatures warming closer to normal with lows tonight in the upper 40s to low 50s and highs Thursday reaching the mid 70s. Confidence is low to the extent that rain will move inland past the highway 17 corridor, but a narrow stretch of light rain may develop for coastal communities Thursday late morning through the rest of the day. High pressure at the surface remains anchored from west to east north of local forecast area. High pressure brings mostly clear skies and light variable wind through tonight increasing to 10-15 kts into Thursday night.
1235 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2020 High pressure will wobble from the Mid-Atlantic to the Ohio Valley region into the weekend. As mentioned in the previous discussion, temperatures overnight are expected to remain slightly warmer overnight. High pressure over the Mid Atlantic region and Low pressure over southern Manitoba will keep a tighter pressure gradient across the region into tonight. The extra cloud cover tonight and winds remaining in the 5 to 12 mph range will keep the region slightly warmer overnight. Lows should range from the lower/mid 40's to around 50. High pressure is expected to wobble from the Mid-Atlantic to the Ohio River Valley region into the weekend. Since low pressure is moving into Quebec and the high moves slightly closer it will allow the pressure gradient to decrease.
Further east where more moisture is available in the low levels, broken ceilings near 6kft are possible. Upper level ridging extending from the western Gulf of Mexico through LA/MS/western AL should persist into tonight before gradually shifting eastward and weakening on Thursday as an upper level trough over the central and southern Plains shifts southeastward toward the ArkLaTex region and eastern portions of TX. Expect overnight lows in the lower 40's across our northwestern counties, with middle to upper 40's across the rest of our inland areas.
WV imagery indicates a northwesterly flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains while ridging aloft builds across the Intermountain West. a trough axis is pushing slowly eastward across western Kansas into central Kansas. A weak trough of low pressure will continue to move through the CWA this evening shifting winds from a southerly direction ahead and a northerly direction behind this feature. As for temperatures, lows tonight are progged to dip into the low to mid 40s with highs tomorrow reaching into the mid to upper 70s.
The closed upper system will remain parked over northeast TX with the upper ridge shifting eastward from the plains to the mid Atlantic states by the weekend. Pattern by then becomes much more amplified with a deep trough out in the southwest U. and southwesterly flow setting up out ahead of it, and a strong upper ridge over the eastern U.
957 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2020 Dense cirrus shield continues to increase across the region this evening ahead of an upper trough pivoting eastward along the Red River Valley. /Tonight through Thursday Night/ Favorable weather remains across the Four-States for this short- term forecast, as a weak low-pressure spins off the southeast Texas coast. This low-pressure has turned transport winds to a more south direction, allowing for a warmer airmass to work its way back into the area. While temperatures for this short-term will be warmer, due to us being cooler the last several days, expect temperature to actually be seasonally normal for this time of the year.
Today Through Friday An axis of mid-level ridging continues pushing over the area this afternoon and despite increased high clouds, southerly surface flow and decent WAA support temps in the 70s area wide this afternoon and again tomorrow. Meanwhile, a compact upper wave will gradually approach from the west late tonight with a closed upper low developing over the Gulf states by Friday morning. A lack of deep moisture precludes rain or thunder and clouds will begin clearing from the west by Thursday afternoon once the trough axis crosses. A transition to more easterly surface flow and decrease in WAA Friday will keep high temps a couple degrees cooler, although they will remain near to slightly above average.
1218 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2020 Dry weather continues as high pressure dominates through the weekend. However, the difference from yesterday is the expected cirrus canopy from a passing s/w trof. High pressure will dominate for the short term period leading to dry weather for the area. Thursday night begins cloudy, but skies should mostly clear out on Friday as upper level ridging pushes into the area. Friday's high temperatures will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s for the lowlands and mid 50s to 60s for the upper elevations.
As the radiative inversion mixes out, winds will gradually become breezy once again by the afternoon hours, veering to the northeast as a surface anticyclone builds into the region. Winds will diminish after dark upon the cessation of vertical mixing, with slightly cooler temperatures expected tomorrow night. Sincavage A modestly progressive pattern will bring a sharp but narrow upper ridge across the area late Friday. Moisture levels will be slightly more elevated and temperatures a bit cooler, yet likely still a few degrees warmer than normal.
AC Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 46 71 51 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 45 70 47 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 69 45 70 47 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 42 69 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 0.
/issued 957 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2020/ Dense cirrus shield continues to increase across the region this evening ahead of an upper trough pivoting eastward along the Red River Valley.
1057 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2020 Zonal flow and upper level ridging dominate the weather pattern through the end of the week.
Expecting a weak cold front to push through the area this morning as well. Temps may be a few degrees cooler due to any lingering clouds and less mixing given lighter 925 mb winds.
A dry pattern will continue through Thursday night as ridging aloft moves eastward across the Intermountain West into the Western High Plains during the period. Precip chances will remain absent across the high plains as a result.
1004 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2020 High pressure over the northeast will bring mostly clear skies and mild temperatures to the region through the weekend. High pressure will bring fair weather to NY and PA over the next few days, while southwesterly flow will tap abnormally mild air building through the continental U. Temperatures will fall into the lower 40s.
A weak cold front will move through the region tonight, affecting SE NM terminals early in the period, progressing south through FST by around 15Z.
Upper level ridging extending from the western Gulf of Mexico through LA/MS/western AL should persist into tonight before gradually shifting eastward and weakening on Thursday as an upper level trough over the central and southern Plains shifts southeastward toward the ArkLaTex region and eastern portions of TX. Expect overnight lows in the lower 40's across our northwestern counties, with middle to upper 40's across the rest of our inland areas.
1018 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2020 Dry weather continues as high pressure settles in for the rest of the week and through the weekend, with a gradual warming trend. Very quiet weather continues with high pressure in control. Dry airmass and clear skies tonight will promote good radiational cooling conditions with temperatures in the valleys falling fast and hard and ending up deep into the 30s, with upper 20s in the coldest mountain valleys, while ridgetop locations remain near 40. High pressure will dominate for the short term period leading to dry weather for the area. Thursday night begins cloudy, but skies should mostly clear out on Friday as upper level ridging pushes into the area. Friday's high temperatures will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s for the lowlands and mid 50s to 60s for the upper elevations.
Depending on the thickness of those clouds, it could cause our max temp forecast today to be a degree or two cooler.
Aloft, an upper level trough will move across the MS Valley today before closing off into an upper low over ArkLaTex by Friday morning. Clouds will advect eastward overnight as the upper trough axis passes to our east, resulting in a mostly clear Friday morning with lows in the low to mid 40s. Sfc and upper ridging will dominate into the weekend, with a breaking upper ridge over the top of low pressure meandering along the Gulf Coast Fri-Sat.
Upper level ridge will remain in place through Thursday bring above normal temperatures. Today, Boise Airport reached 72 degrees and Thursday could be even warmer. This is in response to a developing low pressure system off the West Coast.
132 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2020 High pressure continues to ridge across the area from the NE and the pressure gradient remains fairly tight across the area due to being between the high to the NE and Eta over Central America.
As larger trough begins to take shape in western states, we will see ridging and fairly strong warm air advection already developing by late Thursday night into Friday.
Protected valley locations have already fallen into the low 40s and upper 30s while hilltops have maintained 10+ degrees warmer. Otherwise, everything else remains on track overnight with a fairly quiet weather pattern thanks to strong high pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Flat ridging/zonal flow will maintain dry weather and seasonably warm temperature tonight. Dominant ridging though will maintain a warm atmospheric column and temperature will remain 10 to 15 degrees above the calculated-normals through Friday. Deep West Coast-to-Great Basin troughing is projected to amplify the ridge over the ern CONUS this weekend. The advance of that trough will bring the next rain chance by mid week.
In the upper levels, a ridge will be over the region today and a trough will deepen over the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. At the surface, high pressure will be over the Southeast with northeasterly low level flow over the region. Lows tonight will be mainly in the lower 60s.
225 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2020 Mostly clear skies look to hold through the rest of the night, as satellite trends reveal that the high clouds are thinning with time, at least immediately upstream. Surface ridging will be nearly stationary over the southern and central Appalachians. Flow aloft will be relatively light, but there will be a weak mid/upper level trough advancing from the central and southern plains this afternoon, to the Ohio and Lower Mississippi valleys by late Thursday night. Clear skies and dry air will allow for continued large diurnal temperature ranges, especially in valleys, as ridge/valley low temperatures continue to show a notable difference.
Temps trend a little warmer along the foothills/urban corridor. As ridge sharpens ridge top flow turns more northerly, but enough of a downslope component to keep that area a few degrees higher. On Thursday the ridge sharpens with its axis over CO/NM in response to digging northwest coastal trough. 700 mb temperatures warm a degree or two above today's as heights rise, however model soundings show we will not mix to that level as it caps off a weak subsidence inversion under the ridge. Upper level ridge will slowly be moving east Thursday night into the early portions of the weekend. Winds will be a bit stronger and gustier than Thursday as flow increases as a result of an approaching upper level trough.
High pressure across the eastern Great Basin this evening will shift overhead late tomorrow morning, then continue eastward tomorrow afternoon. Underneath this high pressure, dry and stable conditions will continue through tomorrow, with unseasonably warm temperatures. The evolution of the weekend storm pattern remains fairly consistent between global deterministic models, with the initial storm entering the west coast as a closed low. This means that initially, the cold front will move slowly west to east across Nevada Friday night.
A weak upper ridge builds over the area through Thursday ahead of an upstream trough digging across the central and southern Plains. At the surface, high pressure ridging from the western Atlantic into the southeastern states maintains an east to northeast flow across the region. Lows tonight dip into the low 50s inland and the upper 50s to around 60 closer to the coast. Moisture levels increase, and in combination with a weak upper trough along the East Coast, a few rainshowers will be possible, with greater coverage over the marine portion of the forecast area. Above seasonal temperatures continue, with low temperatures generally in the low to mid 60s Thursday and Friday night, high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s.
The low temperature last night at Key West was 73F, the high today was 80F, and the current temperature is 77F. The Florida Keys are at the northern edge of a large area of deep tropical moisture associated with a Central American gyre, and at the southern edge of a diffuse, east-west baroclinic zone associated with a sprawling continental anticyclone. Breezes may slacken somewhat Thursday and Thursday night as a warm frontal boundary pivots through the Keys, bringing wetter weather.
1022 PM MST Wed Nov 4 2020 Current surface map places trof through the eastern Dakotas, with breezy northwest winds across the western South Dakota plains.
147 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2020 High pressure is well in place to our east and will really dictate our weather pattern now through the weekend. Predominantly southerly flow will streamline warmer temps and some moisture into Middle TN allowing temps to reach some unseasonably warm levels and dew points temps to return to the 50s by this weekend.
1234 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2020 High pressure building up the east coast will provide dry weather through the weekend. Could see temps stay in the lower 50s in west-central Ohio where there will be slightly thicker cloud cover and a bit more wind (but still light) through the overnight period. The high clouds will hold high temperatures a few degrees below todays values.
119 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2020 High pressure will continue to build from the Midatlantic states across the northeast. High pressure will bring fair weather to NY and PA over the next few days, while southwesterly flow will tap abnormally mild air building through the continental U. Temperatures will fall into the lower 40s.
and Friday A weak cold front will track through the region early this morning, mainly noted by upper level clouds and a wind shift to the west and northwest. The front will bring modestly cooler temperatures to the region, however, temperatures will still be well above normal for this time of year as the push of cool air behind the front is fairly modest. Upper level ridging will become reestablished across the Great Lakes region tonight into Friday, with warmer temperatures and dry conditions expected across Wisconsin.
157 AM MST Thu Nov 5 2020 The warm weather continues today with an upper ridge over the region. Flow aloft turns to the SW on Friday as ridge moves to the east and an upper trough digs south along the Pacific Coast as it moves inland. A dry cold front drifts south tonight with somewhat cooler temperatures on Friday with dry weather.
1022 PM MST Wed Nov 4 2020 Mild temperatures and mostly sunny skies will continue rest of today with a few cumulus over the high terrain in northwest flow. These clouds should dissipate overnight as the ridge of high pressure slides overhead by Thursday. This equates to near 70 for Grand Junction and low 70s for the lower desert valleys of southeast Utah. The ridge of high pressure is fairly progressive as a strong low pressure trough dives into the Pacific Northwest, allowing some high level moisture to get pulled northward over the Baja and Desert Southwest Thursday evening.
1049 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2020 (This evening through Thursday) A minor short wave trough will skirt across the area overnight, followed by rising heights tomorrow, as short wave ridging builds in from the west.
118 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2020 Dry weather continues as high pressure dominates through the weekend. However, the difference from yesterday is the expected cirrus canopy from a passing s/w trof. A high pressure system will bring dry weather and moderating temperatures through the weekend.
Temperatures a tad cooler today as 700mb temperatures have fallen into +6C over the +8/+9C temperatures we experienced yesterday. later shifts may want to go a little higher as we get those warmer 700mb temperatures. Ridge axis shifts east Thursday night into Friday with increasing westerly winds. Pattern change still expected this weekend as a trough of low pressure approaches from the west and southwest.
Forecast H85 temps on Thursday afternoon are running 1 to 2 degrees cooler in comparison to this afternoon. Winds will remain light overnight and lows will reach the lower 40s with some mid 30s in the Platte River Valley. On Friday, a strong upper level trough of low pressure will come onshore over northern California Friday. Temps will be slightly warmer Friday, compared to Thursday, as downstream H5 ridging amplifies east of the west coast trough.
In the low levels a south flow has led to the increase in shallow boundary layer moisture and dew points.
Another quiet night is expected as we remain under the influence of high pressure. These clouds are associated with an upper level trough that will push through during the day tomorrow. This feature has helped to kept skies clear, but some higher level cirrus is expected to move into the CWA this evening ahead of a 500h trough. Tomorrow, the trough will advance east from the Plains towards the Ohio Valley. This keeps the cirrus over the Lower Ohio Valley during the day until the trough passes, and clear skies return early tomorrow night. Aloft, upper level low over Texas will retrograde to the west and a large positive height anomaly will develop over the eastern US.
Temperatures warmed into the low/mid 70s this afternoon with mostly sunny conditions after a cool sunrise. The environment remains pretty dry in the lower and middle troposphere, but we are seeing some high clouds streaming across the region. A cut-off low will develop over east TX tomorrow night into Friday, as a vort lobe pinches off the passing trough.
With an H500 low amplitude sinusoidal flow traversing the southern CONUS, brief period of decent height changes from west to east will occur as a ridge builds into the Four Corners Region from Mexico. This will cause some breezy northerly winds during the daytime hours, mainly this afternoon with winds subsiding this evening as the ridge builds northeast across the southern Plains. The northeastward extended ridge will pinch off a weak UL low pressure system over the Texas Gulf Coast by tomorrow afternoon. This will keep the aforementioned area a bit cooler with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s compared to mid and upper 70s for the rest of the combined Panhandles.
Before big changes in the weather pattern come this weekend, expect one more warmer than normal day today followed by a near normal temperatures Friday. Steady light rain will develop across northwest Montana later this afternoon along a stalled warm frontal boundary associated with an upper level low digging south along the west coast.
Tromorrow night a strong trough over the Pacific Northwest will dive southeast. A cutoff low associated with the aformentioned trough moves over northern California by late Friday.
These clouds have allowed for temps to remain warmer than in previous nights for many locations as a result. developing into a closed upper low as it drops south of AR. This upper low will eventually settle over SERN TX by Fri into Fri night. While this NERLY SFC flow will tend to keep temps cooler.
Given the warm start, especially BTV and MSS have trend high temps this aftn on the warmer side of guidance, with values in the SLV/CPV in the mid/upper 60s. Still looking at high pressure firmly established across the Northeast, resulting in mostly sunny skies and anomalously warm temperatures.
At 2 AM, Today and Tonight: Ridging will be in firm control today, resulting in substantial subsidence and a return to clear skies.
A weak coastal trough may develop across the western Gulf of Mexico. Moisture remains limited, but does increase with the persistent onshore flow, and if a seabreeze can kick up enough lift as the 500mb trough axis arrives late Friday morning into Friday afternoon, a few showers and thunderstorms may be possible.
/Today through Friday/ Mostly cloudy this morning with cooler 40s in AR/LA with calm winds. The wind is S/SE in TX/OK with much warmer 50s for many sites. The upper low will soon get cut off from the jet flow and is modeled to back build into E TX this weekend.
321 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2020 Positively tilted upper trough continues to move away across east Texas this morning leaving northerly mid-level flow in its wake. Over the next 24 hours, a rather sharp ridge (insofar as ridges go) will be oriented from MMCU to KCVS to KSLN as the mid level trough attempts to deepen across SE TX. It's not like there was a lot of cold air advection anticipated, but having a more westerly component doesn't yell cooler very effectively. High pressure settles into the region overnight bringing light and variable winds. Friday the CWA will be located between the departing upper level ridge and an upper level trough moving on shore across northern CA.
A weak cold front located nw of MAF will slowly move s and e this morning, eventually turning the winds to the ne at FST by mid afternoon. Highs should still reach the low to mid 80s as ridging aloft builds in behind the departing shrtwv trof. After a cooler night, southerly return flow will commence tomorrow and bring moisture back into the region. Highs will be a few degrees cooler tomorrow, albeit still above normal. Meanwhile, a deepening upper level trof will move onto the upper CA coast late Friday. This trof will migrate over the Intermountain West region this weekend.