Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Hot conditions are ahead this afternoon as very warm air remains over the area ahead of a cold front that is expected to move across the area Saturday. A cooler and dry period is ahead for much of the upcoming week as a large high pressure area settles over the Midwest.
Warmer on Saturday with lower chances for showers and thunderstorms. Discussion: Upper trough continues to slowly pivot atop the TN Valley and Southern Appalachians this afternoon favoring synoptic ascent over the area. At the surface, weak low pressure remains centered northward atop portions of the Upper OH Valley, yet extending southward into/through East TN. Tonight the upper trough axis looks to advect eastward, however with the region still beneath the broader trough. All in all, will mention chance/likely pops further east across the mountains closer to the upper low and trough axis, while featuring slight chances westward to account for any diurnally favored convection.
Weak upper level troughing persists over the region tonight through Saturday with increasing northwest flow aloft setting up across MS/AL/FL for the day Saturday. Temperature forecast will be similar to the past 24 hours, with tonights lows dipping into the lower 70's.
253 PM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021 A hot a humid airmass has acted similar to past days in developing small scale deep convection shortly after reaching convective temperature, in this case, a bit warmer than previous days, at 89. Tonight, the cold front, or at least dry air front, will arrive. This the beginning of a drier air high pressure looking to be in place much of the week.
307 PM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021 Short term (Today through Saturday): High pressure over the region continues to support light southerly winds and the development of both Atlantic and Gulf sea breeze circulations. For Saturday, southwesterly winds and continued warm/moist air advection beneath strengthening high pressure aloft will result in a continued warming trend, with maximum temperatures climbing into the lower 90s across all of South Florida.
133 PM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021 Warm and humid conditions under upper level low pressure should maintain showers and thunderstorm chances across the region today and into this evening, but mainly south of Allegheny County. Expect showers and thunderstorms to end from N-S as the trough completes its passage.
This would have the higher POPs remaining over the eastern sections of the forecast area into this evening. The lower dewpoints seen in western NEB may not make it all the way into the forecast area but lows are expected to range from the lower 60s north central counties to near 70 over the east central counties. For Saturday through Friday an upper ridge redevelops over the Rockies and strengthens. That is not to say there couldn't be a transient wave rounding the ridge axis, but confidence in these smaller scale features is not high enough to include a POP at this time. Surface ridging and a northeasterly wind is expected to keep highs on Saturday in the upper 80s. Otherwise highs should be in the lower and middle 90s through the rest of the forecast period.
yesterday along the Rio Grande, so temperatures are running warmer. Continue warm and humid on Saturday and Saturday night with highs in the lower 100s along the Rio Grande, with 90s elsewhere.
1252 PM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021 (Today and tonight) Another very hot day in store across West Central Texas with temperatures likely a degree or two warmer than yesterday. Warm again tonight with lows only in the low to mid 70s.
A low pressure system off the Pacific Northwest coast will continue the southwesterly flow aloft through the weekend.
334 PM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021 A weak cold front will move south across the area through tonight. Mainly dry weather will return for Saturday as a weak area of high pressure moves back into the area.
Otherwise, wind speeds will be breezy this afternooon from the northeast behind the cold front that passed this morning.
351 PM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021 Convection has become more widespread as expected given the daytime heating destabilization coupled with the PVA along the southern extent of the persistent upper low. For Saturday have confined likely pops to mainly central GA with decreased chances to the north and west as main trough axis and deeper moisture gets a bit farther push SE. Temps Saturday afternoon look to moderate about 5 deg warmer than today in much of the north and parts of the west given overall less convective coverage and some drier mid/upper level columns advecting southward.
1152 AM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021 Hot and humid weather will prevail across central Illinois today, with afternoon high temperatures topping out in the lower 90s. 08z/3am water vapor imagery shows pronounced ridge axis extending from the Upper Midwest to the Southern Plains. while persistent trough that has triggered daily showers/storms across the KILX CWA has shifted well to the east into the Ohio River Valley. Other than that, am expecting a very warm and humid day across central Illinois with highs mostly in the lower 90s.
With current dewpoint temps in the low to mid 70s and little change in airmass expected, overnight lows will only drop into the upper 60s/lower 70s. Despite northerly flow overspreading the area on Saturday, mid level high pressure over the Central Plains will keep warm and muggy conditions in place through the weekend.
931 PM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021 Weak high pressure will build back into the area by late tomorrow.
Also, with the boundary approaching the area around daybreak, dewpoints should remain in the lower to mid 70s in most locations. Despite northerly flow overspreading the area on Saturday, mid level high pressure over the Central Plains will keep warm and muggy conditions in place through the weekend.
The forecast has been updated to remove rain chances this evening, but have kept slight chances for showers and thunderstorms overnight when the cold front still out in western Iowa tracks through the area. A hot a humid airmass has acted similar to past days in developing small scale deep convection shortly after reaching convective temperature, in this case, a bit warmer than previous days, at 89. Tonight, the cold front, or at least dry air front, will arrive. This the beginning of a drier air high pressure looking to be in place much of the week.
859 PM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021 The high pressure ridge axis is shifting south and is currently across south Florida this evening as a trough settles into the deep south over the weekend.
741 PM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021 A weak cold front will continue move south across the area tonight. Then, primarily dry weather will return Saturday as a weak area of high pressure moves back into the area.
/Issued 351 PM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021/ Convection has become more widespread as expected given the daytime heating destabilization coupled with the PVA along the southern extent of the persistent upper low. For Saturday have confined likely pops to mainly central GA with decreased chances to the north and west as main trough axis and deeper moisture gets a bit farther push SE. Temps Saturday afternoon look to moderate about 5 deg warmer than today in much of the north and parts of the west given overall less convective coverage and some drier mid/upper level columns advecting southward.
GOES-16 Satellite trends indicate a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) over Southwest Missouri with a mid-level trough axis still present across the Eastern United States and back into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Transitional period as the upper ridge over the Central Plains retrogrades into the Rocky Mountain west. This will allow for an upper trough to carve out across the eastern US.
A hot a humid airmass has acted similar to past days in developing small scale deep convection shortly after reaching convective temperature, in this case, a bit warmer than previous days, at 89. Tonight, the cold front, or at least dry air front, will arrive. This the beginning of a drier air high pressure looking to be in place much of the week.
Upper level ridging from the Southern Plains to the Upper Great Lakes will dampen as it slowly moves eastward. The trough gradually shifts southeast, moving over the Carolinas and parts of Florida and Georgia.
In addition, the cold front is forecast to sweep across the area later tonight and bring more chances for showers and/or storms. High pressure begins to build into the region on Saturday, thus skies to become mostly sunny across central/east-central WI as dew points crash into the upper 40s to lower 50s. For now, have kept pops on the low side. Max temperatures on Saturday to range from the middle to upper 70s near Lake MI, to the lower to middle 80s over central and east-central WI.
331 PM MDT Fri Jun 11 2021 We have had cool and breezy conditions after last evenings cold front moved through with highs mainly in the 70s. Temperatures Saturday will surge back above normal and into the 80s as a 500mb ridge builds right over the region in response to a powerful upper low anchored off the west coast.
635 PM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021 Summer persistence forecast for the TAFs with southerly flow in place at the low levels. yesterday along the Rio Grande, so temperatures are running warmer. Continue warm and humid on Saturday and Saturday night with highs in the lower 100s along the Rio Grande, with 90s elsewhere.
1021 PM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021 A weak cold front will continue move south across the area tonight. Then, primarily dry weather will return Saturday as a weak area of high pressure moves back into the area.
Upper level low off the British Columbia coast will provide continued onshore flow the region over the next few days, resulting in periods of gusty winds in the vicinity of the Delta.
606 PM MDT Fri Jun 11 2021 Satellite imagery and 500 RAP analysis showed southwest flow over the High Plains this afternoon, with high pressure above central Mexico and upper ridging extending from Texas to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, high pressure prevailed across the region behind last night's cold front. For tonight, a closed low near North Dakota pushes northward into Canada, allowing the upper ridge to amplify over the Plains. This weekend, ridging continues to build along the Plains and Rockies as a large trough develops off the west coast.
Clearing skies late tonight as conditions remain muggy, with lows settling into the low to mid 70s.
1043 PM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021 Low pressure along the Mid Atlantic coast will slowly push out to sea this weekend.
854 PM MDT Fri Jun 11 2021 Satellite imagery and 500 RAP analysis showed southwest flow over the High Plains this afternoon, with high pressure above central Mexico and upper ridging extending from Texas to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, high pressure prevailed across the region behind last night's cold front. For tonight, a closed low near North Dakota pushes northward into Canada, allowing the upper ridge to amplify over the Plains. This weekend, ridging continues to build along the Plains and Rockies as a large trough develops off the west coast.
The latest Pacific trough has come inland with light showers as far east as central Oregon.
1025 PM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021 Currently - Gentle southeast to southerly breezes are being driven by an Atlantic ridge extending across the Bahamas and into South Florida and the Keys. The lower level ridge weakens fairly quickly with height and does not extend to 700 mb. This is due to a trough extending down over the Atlantic states. Temperatures continue to settle downwards through the lower 80s with dew points in the mid 70s. The low level inhibition layer should dissipate over the night. A surface Atlantic ridge extending across South Florida and the Keys will result in light to gentle southeast to southeasterly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight.
Activity to the south will fade as supporting low pressure exits while northern convection coming off the lack will lose instability. A longwave trough across much of the Eastern CONUS should result in shower/thunderstorm chances Mon and Tue. Remnant showers will end tonight as the upper low pulls south of the area with subsidence filling into the north. VFR condition will return Saturday under the influence of high pressure, with lifting stratocu through the aftn.
428 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021 Today will be primarily rain free as an area of weak high pressure ridges into the area.
Also, with the boundary approaching the area around daybreak, dewpoints should remain in the lower to mid 70s in most locations. Despite northerly flow overspreading the area on Saturday, mid level high pressure over the Central Plains will keep warm and muggy conditions in place through the weekend. Should see more breaks in cloud cover, and this will allow temperatures to climb back into the lower 90s for the first time since late May. Finally, some drier air will filter into the area at the beginning of the next work week, as a building high over the Four Corners region couples with and upper trough over the Great Lakes Region. Will spend the first half of the work week in northwest flow, with highs gradually dropping from the lower 90s to the middle 80s each day.
A very strong ridge, I think this one meets the definition of a "Death Ridge", will begin to build northward over Wyoming today. Nothing really hot, but warmer than yesterday and definitely above normal. The ridge will really begin to build northward on Sunday and, with 500 millibar heights passing 5900 meters in most areas. This will be the first day of widespread 90s across most of the lower elevations, with hotter temperatures to come.
1209 AM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021 (This evening through Saturday) Looks to be another warm night tonight with lows in the low 70s. The upper level ridge continues to dominate the West Central Texas weather pattern keeping us nice and dry. The core of the ridge is expected to start drifting back west on Saturday into far West Texas and Eastern New Mexico. The 850 mb thermal ridge is following suite moving back to the west as well. Low level flow will continue from the south so the high humidity relief is not expected to last long.
Expect the lower ceilings will develop from the inland Coastal Bend to the Victoria Crossroads around 09Z with patchy fog/IFR ceilings possible in the VCT area before daybreak. A strong mid/upper level high pressure system centered across W TX, remains in control of S TX weather and will continue through Saturday. The high pressure will maintain the hot and humid conditions with moisture trapped in the lowest levels. The high temperature combined with a humid environment may lead to afternoon heat indices ranging from 105 to 109 across portions of S TX Saturday afternoon.
440 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021 A weak cold front will drop in from the north late today. As of 440 AM: Latest water vapor images indicated a mid-level trough across the Southeast U. At the sfc, a backdoor cold front extended west to east across NC this morning. The cold front is forecast to slide south through the day, expected to reach the north portions of the SC Lowcountry this evening. Sunday: A cold front will linger across the area before shifting offshore late while deep troughing helps maintain PWATs around 2. While the bulk of the precipitation will largely depend on the timing and placement of the cold front, there could also be convection along the sea breeze and other boundaries that form. High temperatures will be slightly cooler than previous days, topping out in the mid 80s.
157 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021 Primarily dry weather will return today as a weak area of high pressure ridges into the area.
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will remain under the influence of 500 mb high pressure that will be centered more or less over west Texas. Despite the warmer than normal daytime high temperatures, relative humidity values will remain low enough to preclude the necessity of a Heat Advisory for this weekend.
342 AM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021 A weak cold front will trigger scattered thunderstorms across central and southeast Illinois today. High temperatures will top out in the lower to middle 90s. 08z/3am surface analysis shows a weak cold front extending from the Upper Peninsula of Michigan southwestward to Oklahoma. High temperatures will once again top out in the lower to middle 90s, with peak heat index values approaching 100 degrees. Low temperatures will range from the lower 60s northwest of the Illinois River to the lower 70s south of I-70. While temperatures will remain very warm in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees behind the departing cold front on Sunday, dewpoints dropping into the 50s everywhere north of I-70 will make things feel much more comfortable.
With troughing surface and aloft moving into the deep south tonight, expect to see increasing showers and thunderstorms near and south of the convergence zone ahead of the boundary.
Another complex of storms will develop tonight across the higher terrain to our west and northwest.
239 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021 Low pressure along the Mid Atlantic coast will slowly push out to sea this weekend.
Tonight Through Sunday Long story short - hot and humid conditions are going to continue thru the short term as a ridge builds to the west of us.
Shower and thunderstorm chances should increase again on Sunday with a crossing cold front. Mainly dry weather is expected much of today as flat ridging briefly builds in.
The area will remain in a northwest flow aloft between an upper ridge to the west and an upper trough to the east. Highs will be around 90 on Saturday and in the low 90s on Sunday with heat index values of 100 to 105. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s inland to upper 70s along the coast.
An upper ridge will begin to amplify over eastern and into Alberta tonight, setting the stage for several days of dry and increasing warmer temperatures. As the ridge amplifies, a wave embedded in the northwest flow aloft may clip southeastern Manitoba into the far northeastern zones. The upper ridge slides further east into Saskatchewan for Sunday, allowing warmer temperatures across the southern valley with afternoon highs around 90 not out of the question.
Behind the upper level wave that brought the line of storms will be a building upper level ridge with decreasing winds at the surface. This will allow for drier air and cooler morning temperatures. High temperatures will be in the 80s as the upper level ridge continues to build bringing no chances for precipitation. High pressure at the surface will shift southeast as a quick moving upper level jet max dives into northern MN Saturday night into Sunday. Increasing southerly flow will bring milder lows in the lower 60s Sunday morning. We've been getting warmer than expected at times over the past 6-8 days with the very dry ground and suspect that will begin again but will have to dry things out again, especially over south central into far southeast SD where some higher rainfall amounts occurred.
Mild again tonight with lows in the low to mid 70s.
As the cold front pushes southward, the threat for rain will end from north to south Sunday evening.
ABM Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 70 91 71 92 / 20 20 30 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 68 89 69 89 / 30 20 40 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 88 68 89 67 89 / 20 10 40 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 64 86 65 87 / 30 30 40 30 10.
254 AM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021 Cloud cover continues to overspread the bulk of the area early this morning, with a combination of cirrus blowoff from the MCS diving south through Oklahoma and stratus above the cold front that has exited east-central Kansas. Recent water vapor imagery shows upper ridging remaining in place from northern Mexico to the northern Plains.
We are finally watching the trough begin to work out of the area, as a a ridge build in. As we move into Sunday the better moisture will be across the south and southwest, so went with the higher PoPs here. Highs will be a touch warmer on Sunday as the sun will be around a little longer.
1005 PM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021 No significant changes were made to the inherited grids/zones this evening as ridging sfc/aloft maintain dry/warm/muggy conditions through the night.
As a result, plenty of cooling was taking place compared to last night, as temperatures ranged from the lower and mid 50s in northeast Nebraska to the upper 60s in southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Upper level ridging will amplify over the central to western CONUS, with the axis roughly over the Rockies. This will leave the forecast area under northwesterly flow aloft on the eastern periphery of said ridging, but still plenty of warm air will make its way into the area, with highs consistently in the 90s for most from Sunday onward.
An upper level ridge axis still resides from west TX into the western Great Lakes, and a surface cold front was just northwest of the forecast area. Warmest temperatures and best instability will be ahead of the front during the afternoon over south central MO where readings in the low to possibly mid 90s are anticipated. High pressure will move in behind the front and limit the amount of convection to mainly south central MO during the afternoon. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected tonight with a cooler and drier air mass moving into the area behind the front. The upper ridge will amplify once again across the eastern Rockies into the high plains on Sunday.
As the cold front pushes southward, the threat for rain will end from north to south Sunday evening. Another wave then moves near the Great Lakes region around broad troughing over Canada as it digs further into the eastern CONUS through the middle of the week.
As a result wind gusts have been relatively low this afternoon thus far and temperatures are about 5-10 degrees cooler. Temperatures will cool efficiently tonight given the dry air and weaker flow, but warmer than this morning. The ridge starts to build over the region tomorrow causing a spike in the temperatures by a good 10 degrees. The ridge of high pressure building over the Southern Rockies will lift into west-central New Mexico by Sunday.
An upper level trough and cold front will push into The Midlands and CSRA on Saturday which will result in numerous showers and thunderstorms.
The actual cold front at 230 pm was just west of Mankato and the Twin Cities metro, but SPC mesoanalysis shows the primary instability axis (with mlCAPE values between 1500 and 2000 j/kg) situated from the IL/IA/WI border up to the western U. For the rest of the short term, very dry high pressure moves in and scours out the moisture. Winds don't look strong enough to warrant significant fire weather concerns, but humidities getting this low once again will not help with our rapidly growing drought.
Key Messages: 1) Isolated showers and thunderstorms may linger around the area today, with greatest storm chances along the higher terrain 2) Can't rule out a rogue strong to severe storm, but most places should remain dry today. Trough axis that brought wide spread showers and storms has moved east of the forecast area. We are still within the broad trough over the eastern U. Greatest chances for showers and storms will be along the higher terrain of the southern Appalachian Mountains today as storms can tap into the orographic lift as they move southeastward. Storm chances really diminish after the sun sets as the trough continues to move eastward and storms lose the solar radiation, and tonight should be fairly quiet across the forecast area.
211 AM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021 At 1 am, the cold front was located a long a KEAU-KDSM line with dewpoints dropping into the lower 60s promptly behind the front, followed rapidly by 50s.
GOES-16 Satellite trends indicate a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) over Southwest Missouri with a mid-level trough axis still present across the Eastern United States and back into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley.
High temperatures across the area are expected to be in the low to mid 80s this afternoon, which is about a 15 degree drop from yesterday. Weak cold air advection and northerly flow should lead to cooler temperatures tomorrow.
1102 PM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021 Low pressure along the Mid Atlantic coast will slowly push out to sea this weekend.