Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As the upper trof continues to move off to the E/NE, we should see things taper off by this evening. Weak ridging in the wake of this system will give us a break overnight, but the return of strong SE winds toward sunrise/early tomorrow could produce some isolated to widely scattered WAA-type showers. Rain chances to increase once again late Mon night/early Tues mor- ning as the next cold front moves in from the Southern Plains into SE TX. While previous model runs have backed off on the front moving completely through SE TX, have favored a FROPA given the upper pattern (flat upper ridge).
We have adjusted temperatures to have more contrast near the clearing line with much cooler temperatures east and warmest temperatures in northwest Oklahoma. The watch remains over other areas west of I-35, and any change to this will mostly depend on the eastward extent of the dryline in the afternoon before the mild cold front arrives later in the day.
Cloudiness is expected to persist overnight due to persistent low- level moisture advection ahead of the aforementioned low pressure system. Overnight lows will be warmer than last night due to clouds, rising dew points, and windy conditions. Scattered SHRA/TSRA may develop on Monday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front, but the best opportunity for widespread precipitation will be on Monday night (see below). Believe the GFS convection scheme is aiding in the lower CAPE based on progd soundings. With a strong pres gradient, expect fairly high winds/gusts, esp during the afternoon hours as a s/w rotates around the base of the upper trof. Have trended warmer, but if deeper mixing does occur, going forecast is not warm enuf. Mdl differences only increase beyond and have kept PoPs in the lower chance range if not dry.
Much of the rain ahead of this trough across AL and eastern MS is not reaching the ground as the low levels remain quite dry, and the onset of measureable precip in our area will likely be near midnight. The trough exits Monday morning. Thus, highs will be a bit cooler than today, in the lower to mid 60s. A brief dry period early Monday night as most of the energy associated with approaching cold front moving into the Mississippi and Ohio valleys stays far to the west and northwest closer to the front.
These clouds will keep much of the area a bit cooler than yesterday, though still well above seasonal climo. The exception will be across western parts of central Kansas where more sunshine and slightly drier air will allow for warmer daytime temperatures. The approaching western CONUS upper trof will move east across the northern and central Plains during Monday. This will push a surface dry-line eastward across the area during the day, followed by the cold front by Monday evening. The cold front will then merge and overtake the dry-line during Monday evening as it moves through southeast Kansas.
A cold front will pivot through the region overnight, with isolated showers expected along the front north of I-40.
1002 AM MST Sun Mar 5 2017 Temperatures are currently running 10 to 15 degrees warmer than what was observed 24 hours ago at most locations around the forecast area. The reason for this is warm air advection ahead of an approaching cold front. These winds will be gusty with gusts to 55 mph in the lower elevations and gusts up to 75 mph over the mountains. The cold front itself is expected to pass over the forecast area tonight and will support showers this afternoon with isolated thunderstorms possible north of I-70.
The watch remains over other areas west of I-35, and any change to this will mostly depend on the eastward extent of the dryline in the afternoon before the mild cold front arrives later in the day.
Water vapor imagery shows a strong upper trough moving into the western U. As the upper trough continues east across the Plains during the day Monday, a dryline will slowly advance eastward into our western counties. In addition, a cold front will slide south and should be across northwest Oklahoma during the late afternoon. By late evening, as the cold front approaches North Texas, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to develop mainly along the front itself, where stronger mesoscale forcing along the boundary can break the cap.
This low will deepen quickly developing a cold frontal boundary Monday afternoon quickly pushing to the east and increasing the winds even more Monday afternoon. Strong warm air advection will advect into the region ahead of the front leading to abnormally high temperatures in the low to mid 70s, with the overhead cloud coverage being the only thing keeping it from being higher. All the ingredients point to scattered strong thunderstorms with a decent chance of isolated severe storms to form ahead of and eventually along the cold front. Very dry air, dewpoints around 15F, will move into the region behind this boundary with a slight dip in temperatures, but still well above normal with highs in the low 60s.
107 PM EST Sun Mar 5 2017 High pressure will be situated east of the region today allowing for southerly flow and warmer temperatures.
Latest surface analysis indicates strong high pressure centered over Virgina, which is the feature responsible for generating the tight surface pressure gradient and strong easterly flow. The highest wind speeds have occurred along the immediate east coast metro region, where gusts from 30 to 40 have been common. Expect maximum temperatures Monday in the mid 70s along the eastern peninsula and near 80 degrees further west, a few degrees cooler than normal for this time of year.
A warm front may also bring a few showers to the region on Monday, best chances in the afternoon into northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio.
213 PM EST Sun Mar 5 2017 High pressure will move east of the area tonight. Clouds and temperatures will both increase into Monday, as light south winds bring in warmer air.
A weather system passing by to our north will bring strong gusty winds to the area today along with increasing cloudiness, followed by somewhat cooler temperatures Monday.
1251 PM EST Sun Mar 5 2017 High pressure overhead will slowly shift to New England through Monday.
Upper level trough will move overhead later today/this evening and should begin to shut down the precipitation process due to drier air getting entrained into the filling trough in the mid levels.
301 PM CST Sun Mar 5 2017 Strong southerly winds of 15-30 mph and gusts of 25-40 mph prevailed this afternoon across central IL and will continue Monday ahead of an approaching cold front. Weakening 1038 mb high pressure over central Quebec and ridging southward toward eastern VA/NC.
Strong high pressure over the mid-Atlantic will push offshore Monday.
As strong upper trough progresses eastward over northern and central Rockies, veering flow will allow dryline to surge eastward tomorrow and easily clear far western parts of Oklahoma into western north Texas before slowing mid to late afternoon. This would support low probability of dryline convection through the afternoon, with storms primarily focused along cold front and cold front/dryline intersection.
Attention then turns to tomorrow as a strong cold front sweeps across the region in the late afternoon and evening hours.
1235 PM EST Sun Mar 5 2017 Warm frontal boundary lifts north later today and tonight.
322 PM CST Sun Mar 5 2017 The leading edge of a slow moving, weak upper level trough and associated low level warm advection is causing some light rain over the western part of the forecast area. This pattern will continue through Monday and Monday night as the upper level trough moves slowly east.
356 PM EST Sun Mar 5 2017 Afternoon surface analysis shows warm front has lifted north of the region this afternoon, and this is also seen on the model theta-e mag. Overall given the lower chances felt like scattered POPs seemed best based on the low chances of measuring and higher cloud bases will play a role as well. Some showers are possible ahead of the boundary, as upper level waves ride up along base of the trough.
145 PM PST Sun Mar 5 2017 A cold front will move through Los Angeles County this afternoon bringing light rain and mountain snow to the area this afternoon along with much cooler temperatures and breezy conditions.
an upper level system with an associated surface cold front over the Rockies will begin to approach the region on Monday.
As cold air rushes in behind the sfc cold front, an area northwest of a line from Devils Lake to Langdon will likely see any rain transition to a wintry mix and snow starting late Monday afternoon. As winds begin to ramp up in the late afternoon/early evening in the west behind the cold front, any collocated snowfall may limit visibility causing hazardous travel.
/issued 400 AM CST Sun Mar 5 2017/ WV imagery shows the upper trough has cleared West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, as have the -SHRA that accompanied it. 00Z KMAF RAOB showed anomalously high PWATs for this time of year--245% of normal, currently maintained by a 25-35kt LLJ, but this will drop over the next 48 hours as SW flow aloft develops in response to an upper trough making landfall on the west coast. Sfc flow will begin backing to SW this afternoon in response to leeside troughing on the Front Range ahead of the upper trough. Monday, downslope winds will be stronger, and afternoon highers warmer, as the upper trough begins ejecting into the upper Midwest.
The high wind event will be aided by 3 features. (1) strong gradient winds from the deep low pressure across ND.
Despite the weak ridging aloft, an upper level impulse upstream is spreading shower activity across a good portion of the mid south to our southwest. Upper ridging should keep our eastern half mostly precip free through today. Ridge axis currently located across the mid state.
1227 PM EST Sun Mar 5 2017 This afternoon will be several degrees warmer than yesterday. It will not be as cold tonight because of air mass modification and developing onshore flow as the ridge shifts eastward.
1101 AM MST Sun Mar 5 2017 09z surface analysis had low over central MT with warm front into souther MN and cold front into central CA. Today, upper low moves on shore deepening upper trough as it moves over the west coast. Southwest flow aloft will dominate with thermal ridge peaking over the CWA. Westerly downslope flow combined with strong diurnal drying will bring temperatures in the lower to mid 70s across parts of the SD plains.
235 PM EST Sun Mar 5 2017 Warm frontal boundary lifts north later today and tonight.
Cooler overnight low temperatures as clouds decrease from west to east.
346 PM EST Sun Mar 5 2017 Afternoon surface analysis shows warm front has lifted north of the region this afternoon, and this is also seen on the model theta-e mag. Overall given the lower chances felt like scattered POPs seemed best based on the low chances of measuring and higher cloud bases will play a role as well. Some showers are possible ahead of the boundary, as upper level waves ride up along base of the trough. The CIGs do look to continue to lower Monday, but keep them in the lower VFR range at this point.
Upper level trough will move overhead later today/this evening and should begin to shut down the precipitation process due to drier air getting entrained into the filling trough in the mid levels. The water vapor shows a drier back side to this upper low edging our way with a dry slot into S TX.
Residual moisture across the eastern CWA combined with an unstable atmosphere has kept isolated showers in the area this afternoon despite ridging/subsidence aloft. As the upper level ridge moves east across the CWA tonight, rain chances are expected to end.
248 PM EST Sun Mar 5 2017 High pressure remains in control of the weather today before moving offshore Monday.
Pattern currently dominated by a trough over the pacific northwest, ridging in the central plains and subsequent downstream troughing over the Great Lakes. Pattern will amplify through the weekend with upper ridge cresting over the area late this weekend.
A weak surface boundary is located from southeast Louisiana across the coastal waters to off the lower Texas coast.
Warmer conditions will also follow for much of the upcoming week. Fries Precipitation chances will continue through Sunday as a long wave trough deepens over the eastern US.
Upper level trough was pushing into the OH valley with a vort max in MN sliding down the west side of the trough. Have gone with the lower dewpoints that the MET guidance suggests due to the decent mixing and dry airmass throughout the column. Tonight, the vort max will have moved well south of the cwa with high pressure again firmly in control. With the very dry airmass in place we will follow the cooler MAV guidance but the dewpoints off that model are probably still too high.
611 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Latest water vapor satellite imagery indicating upper level closed low over the western United States and ridging over southern Canada and Northern Plains. 00z GFS/NAM are in good agreement in developing southerly flow on the backside of ridge and advect warmer air into the forecast area.
There may be enough moisture, instability, and lift in place per passage of trough passage across Upper Cumberland Region to support sct shwrs in vicinity of CSV 21/18Z-22/02Z. Ridging influences sfc/aloft will build across mid state 21/02Z-21/12Z providing SKC BNA/CKV.
Very light showers continue this morning over portions of east central IL and these will slowly taper off over the morning hours as the upper low lingers over the region. Skies will clear through the day from northwest to southeast under the subsidence associated with the high. Highs today should warm a few to several degrees to the low to mid 70s.
Temperatures will become warmer by mid week. Low pressure area over the region will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms to the interior today.
Another omega block pattern is in place with the ridge of high pressure extending up into the northern Pains. With the ridge building into the region today, northwesterly flow will filter in drier and cooler air.
Today should be fairly similar to yesterday, although with the weak upper disturbance that brought clouds moving off and ridging building in, there should be more sunshine. By Sunday, the Northern Plains will be under southwesterly flow aloft as a large upper trough digs into the western CONUS.
Cloud may keep the high temperatures cooler southwest, in the lower 70s today. Saturday begins with an amplified upper air pattern with a large upper low centered over the California-Nevada-Oregon border. The eastern fringe of this upper low extends to eastern Montana and Wyoming. Downstream an H500 ridge extends across the Dakotas. For today, the h500 ridge will enhance the cap and should inhibit convection through the the day. Sunday will see more organized convection into lines along an advancing cold front through central North Dakota. By Sunday, much better shear arrives with the advancing upper low into North Dakota. Most unstable cape between 2 and 3 thousand is forecast along an eastward moving cold front that will erode the remnants of the capping inversion Sunday afternoon.
935 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Low pressure over southern Ohio will dissipate today as another low develops along the East Coast later today. A trough of low pressure will linger back west over the local area through Sunday.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE AREA AND SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO BE ALONG THE GULF SEA BREEZE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
Through the day today, an upper level trough will swing through the region. A few lightning strikes will be possible as well as cooler air aloft steepen lapse rates. Showers will move out this afternoon into the early evening hours as the trough axis shifts eastward. The trough will stall out along the eastern seaboard on Sunday and deepen a bit. Temperatures today will remain on the cooler side, topping out in the upper 60s to around 70. Sunday should be warmer with highs in the low to mid 70s under partly cloudy to mostly clear skies.
There will be a small area of upper level ridging over the region on Sunday. A large upper level trough develops across the western half of the U.
This produces highs in the lower 60s to around 70. The next significant weather system arrives on Sunday as a cold front pushes across Nebraska and the northern Plains. Will keep the western counties in the low 80s and have lowered the eastern counties into the mid to upper 70s.
Meanwhile, an upper level ridge over the Plains will shift into the Northland tonight and Sunday, providing the Northland with warm and sunny weather through the weekend. Gusty southerly flow will develop Sunday as the upper level ridge moves through the Upper Midwest and low pressure develops over the High Plains. The upper ridge over the Northland will move east of the area Sunday night allowing a deep southerly flow to draw PWAT values to 1.
MOS guidance is indicating IFR ceilings, but has been too aggressive with the lowering ceilings.
748 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Low pressure will move up the Ohio Valley resulting in much cooler and wet weather for Saturday and Sunday.
WV imagery indicates a weak upper level ridge of high pressure moving eastward across the Western High Plains while an upper level trough of low pressure remains anchored across the Pacific Northwest. Near the surface, an area of low pressure is developing across southeast Colorado with an attendant dryline extending southward into northeast New Mexico. High pressure anchored over the upper Midwest this morning created a gradient across western Kansas and the dry air over the higher terrain over Colorado. The location of the developing warm front/dryline zone over the far west will determined where convection initiation will be possible. Dryline storms may be possible any day of the week before a cold front moves through the area by late week.
/issued 353 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016/ Have an upper level ridge over the area with a closed low over the OR/CA region. This low will slowly wobble NE but additional lobes will rotate down behind it. With no cold fronts expected for the coming week temperatures should be fairly consistent day to day.
1236 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Warm high pressure will slowly move east of the region this afternoon.
This more organized band of precip is expected to eventually slide east/northeast into WY and MT later this afternoon, however additional scattered to numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue across southeast Idaho this afternoon as the closed upper low trudges very slowly east/northeast.
The low clouds should finally evaporate this evening, leaving only some cirrus in the subtropical jet. This is in response to strengthening low level southerly flow ahead of a very slow moving but large upper level trough over the western U. This trough will linger over the western U. The low level warm, moist advection has already resulted in a few isolated showers across parts of the Hill Country.
Examination of soundings and projected mixing suggests highs should be persistence plus several degrees with warmer readings the inverse of what typically occurs, warmest northeast and a touch cooler southwest.
An upper level low over Northern California will bring continued cooling to the area today along with a threat of showers and thunderstorms.
An upper trough will keep the weather showery and cool through the weekend.
A weak trough will move across the upper lakes later this afternoon into tonight and some models continue to suggest isolated showers developing perhaps as far south as southern WI this afternoon. High temps will rebound into the mid 70s across much of the cwa with cooler temps along the lake as winds remain north/northeasterly. High pressure will move across the lakes region Sunday. This will maintain onshore flow with cooler temps along the lakeshore but temps further inland should warm well into the 70s with some western areas likely reaching 80.
1054 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Warm high pressure will slowly move east of the region this afternoon.
Low pressure in the Ohio valley will continue to weaken this afternoon as low pressure along the mid Atlantic coast intensifies. The upper level trough axis will shift over our forecast area tonight, with the surface cyclone sliding off the New Jersey coast. On Sunday, the trough will extend into North Carolina, with the surface cyclone slowly tracking north toward the Maine coast. In the meantime, another surface cyclone will develop east of the upper trough. The combination of the cyclones and the trough will keep our weather unsettled.
1055 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 Northern Michigan centered between Ohio Valley low pressure and a moisture starved cold front dropping south into Lake Superior. High pressure remains centered over the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Great Lakes region early this morning. Low pressure continues to make its way eastward thru the Ohio Valley and into the Appalachians. Low pressure will continue to slide east to the mid Atlantic states today. High pressure and dry air will then be reinforced across the Wrn Great Lakes region overnight in the wake of the passing front. with cooler temps near the lakeshores as is usual for this time of year.
With that said, additional drier air and winds veering in the low levels will significantly hamper a wetting cloud line.
627 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016 High pressure centered over Iowa will be the dominant weather feature today, keeping temperatures near normal and skies mostly clear aside from some cirrus spilling in from the north. A weak vort max dropping through this evening could spark off a few showers or storms, primarily across eastern/central KS where an elevated warm front will be lifting northeastward. Warm front lifting through on Sunday will bring temperatures back into the upper 70s/near 80, though the more noticeable impact will be a rapid increase in humidity with dewpoints reaching the mid and even upper 60s by late afternoon.
403 AM PDT SAT MAY 21 2016 A trough of low pressure over the western states will weaken slightly through Sunday.
Cooler than average conditions will continue Sunday with the most concentrated precipitation expected over the Idaho Panhandle. Large closed low lingers in the region thorough this time various nested disturbances in and around the edges of it rotate around and bring showers and some thunderstorms to the area.
Forecast maximums in the lower to middle 80s looks attainable today.
tfj Upper trough centered over southern Oregon will very slowly shift east today. This will move the region of diffluence between the western trough and ridge over the northern plains eastward and allow for deeper ascent over eastern Montana through the afternoon and evening. Strong low level jet over the high plains keeping winds at lake wind criteria this morning.
isolated to scattered showers/storms will continue to develop along a northward moving warm frontal boundary currently draped from near Encinal to Mathis to Port Lavaca. Low level forcing associated with northward moving warm front and pwats around 2 inches was resulting in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this morning. It will be warmer and more humid today in the wake of the warm front with less cloud cover. Even warmer on Sunday with a more southerly onshore flow and building ridge aloft.
Further aloft 500 mb ridging will build steadily over the area allowing a more subsident airmass to prevail as the deep layer rh values diminish over the region. As the 500 mb ridge axis builds over the region expect the daytime to increase a bit for both Sat and Sunday. The latest MET temp guidance is a bit cooler versus both the MAV and ECMWF numbers. So will go closer to the warm side of guidance due to the influence of the 500 mb ridging.