Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
08z/3am surface analysis shows high pressure anchored over the Carolinas. while a cold front drops slowly southward through the Dakotas. Meanwhile further north, thunderstorms will develop ahead of the approaching cold front across southern Minnesota/northern Iowa late this afternoon and evening. The storm cluster will track E/SE along the northern periphery of an upper-level ridge of high pressure, with all model solutions keeping it north of the KILX CWA tonight. The Dakotas cold front is progged to sink slowly southward into central Illinois during the afternoon, interacting with a highly unstable but weakly sheared environment. NAM/GFS both suggest SBCAPEs potentially in excess of 3000J/kg, but this hinges on surface dewpoints reaching the lower 70s.
325 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020 (Today and Tonight) Upper level low continues to drift slowly north and will eventually make it into Southern Oklahoma later today. Most likely will be not as widespread as what we have seen the last few days, with activity primarily diurnal with only weak upper level support south of the low. Otherwise, a little more sun today will lead to warmer temperatures, with highs in the mid 80s for most locations.
135 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020 Shower chances return this morning with a warm front. Strong thunderstorms are then possible with a Wednesday cold front. As the jet stream strengthens, a cold front will approach from the northwest Wednesday evening and prompt convective initiation in tandem with a right jet-entrance circulation that provides near 50kts in bulk shear. A sufficiently warm and moist surface courtesy of Tuesday's warm frontal passage will prime the thermodynamic environment with 3000 j/kg of CAPE. Lingering boundaries amid the same occluding low pressure, as well as a developing trough in the upper Midwest will present more opportunities for showers and thunderstorms this weekend. Restrictions are likely in shra/ts with a Wed cold front, and Thu S of PIT as the front stalls. Restriction potential returns again with a Fri cold front.
210 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020 Shower chances return this morning with a warm front. Strong thunderstorms are then possible with a Wednesday cold front. As the jet stream strengthens, a cold front will approach from the northwest Wednesday evening and prompt convective initiation in tandem with a right jet-entrance circulation that provides near 50kts in bulk shear. A sufficiently warm and moist surface courtesy of Tuesday's warm frontal passage will prime the thermodynamic environment with 3000 j/kg of CAPE. Lingering boundaries amid the same occluding low pressure, as well as a developing trough in the upper Midwest will present more opportunities for showers and thunderstorms this weekend. Restrictions are likely in shra/ts with a Wed cold front, and Thu S of PIT as the front stalls. Restriction potential returns again with a Fri cold front.
344 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020 The start of June/meteorological summer started hot with highs in the 90s yesterday and we'll see similar conditions this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold frontal moving thru western Neb today. The cold frontal will be focus for showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening and strong to severe storms are possible. The pattern will be less amplified Wednesday as the upper ridge axis breaks down and retrogrades over the desert southwest with leaving fairly zonal flow across the northern third of the CONUS. Temps will trend several degrees cooler in the post frontal airmass.
Despite considerable mid and upper level cloudiness spilling into our region from the Gulf of Mexico, a significant dry layer between 850 and 700 mb due to a western Atlantic ridge axis nearby should limit overall deep convective coverage through tonight.
Another day of gusty southwest winds under a upper level ridge axis has allowed temperatures to reach the 90s for the first day of June. Dewpoints have also pushed into the low 60s, which will make for another relatively warm night tonight with lows in the mid to upper 60s. On Tuesday, temperatures are once again forecast to reach the mid 90s as a cold front approaches from the northwest. By late afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to develop near the cold front in or just northwest of the forecast area. Temperatures is forecast to be a few degrees cooler, but we should still see good destabilization by late afternoon in the vicinity of this front.
An upper level low has moved into North Texas and there is a ridge farther west. The low level flow continues to be weak with an ill defined pressure field. The upper low will continue its slow trek to the northeast.
Temperatures will once again be warmer than the day before, with highs in the mid to upper 80s today. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s, made warmer by increased clouds tonight.
346 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020 Short and medium range guidance keeps the remnants of the ridge axis in place through midnight tonight, before breaking down and shifting to the southeast. The main feature developing across the area on Wednesday is a very weak mid-upper level trough (remnants of a closed low currently over western Texas and Texas Panhandle at 3 am CDT).
Strengthening warm air advection along with relatively warm start, primarily in the lower 60s, with afternoon highs into the upper 80s. Thereafter, strong upstream ridging/rexing of TD3 to bring sprawled Canadian high into Great Lakes for rest of forecast period. As ridge moves east to Lower Great Lakes into southeast U.
Current satellite shows encroaching mid cloud into the northern half of the CWA, roughly north of the Parkways, associated with a washed out warm front well to our north. The Ohio Valley remains under upper ridging that currently covers the CONUS. At the surface, high pressure is centered near Cincinnati. This high will continue to get pushed southeast towards the North Carolina coast. Expect warm and dry conditions Tuesday night and Wednesday under a flattening ridge aloft. By Wednesday night a sfc cold front will drop southward across Indiana, but start to hang up as it becomes aligned parallel to the upper flow.
444 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020 Shower chances continue this morning with a warm front. Strong to severe thunderstorms are then possible with a Wednesday cold front. Lingering boundaries amid the same occluding low pressure, as well as a developing trough in the upper Midwest will present more opportunities for showers and thunderstorms into this weekend. Restrictions are likely in shra/ts with a Wed cold front, and Thu S of PIT as the front stalls. Restriction potential returns again with a Fri cold front.
Temperatures as of 200 AM MDT are mainly in the 70s with a light southerly flow ahead of a trough sitting over east-central Colorado.
140 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020 Temperatures and humidity will increase in the days ahead as high pressure settles offshore. Clouds may bleed into the corner of NC as ridge-top moisture on NW trajectory impinges our doorstep near daybreak. Above normal temperatures in store for the short term period with a 500mb ridge overhead and southwesterly flow across the area.
shower and thunderstorm coverage is a bit higher compared to the past few days and focused on a cold frontal passage in the afternoon through mid evening before moving east and south out of the area after midnight. the upper flow has shifted to a more west/west-northwest flow around an upper high centered from Mexico toward the four corners.
The region will largely remain in the transition zone between upper ridging to our west, and a departing trough to our east. Model soundings show a warmer profile overall, with a gradual increase in H85 temperatures. With greater moisture content throughout the column, don't expect mixed layer heights to be as high as they were yesterday but with a warmer low level temperature profile in place highs should be in the low to mid 80s across much of the CWA this afternoon.
Highs today will be cooler than what we've seen the last few days with 70s most places. Slightly warmer conditions can be expected on Wednesday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s forecast.
Temperatures generally range from the low to mid 70s inland to around 80 at the beaches.
We remain under high pressure as a cutoff low off the southern California coast continues to sit and spin with minimal lateral movement anticipated.
The start of June/meteorological summer started hot with highs in the 90s yesterday and we'll see similar conditions this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold frontal moving thru western Neb today. The cold frontal will be focus for showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening and strong to severe storms are possible. The pattern will be less amplified Wednesday as the upper ridge axis breaks down and retrogrades over the desert southwest with leaving fairly zonal flow across the northern third of the CONUS. Temps will trend several degrees cooler in the post frontal airmass.
While high pressure remains in control of the region today and Wednesday, it has shifted to our east. The high pressure system will slide a touch to the southeast and flow will be more southerly on the westward periphery of the high.
Highs today only reaching the low to mid 80s along the coast and mid 80s inland, due to the precipitation and cloud cover.
429 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2020 The northern plains remains beneath an upper ridge, while an upper low spins off the coast of CA. With cool air advecting into the area, highs will range from the lower 70s across northeastern WY and the Black Hills to the mid 80s across central SD.
Starting with today, subsidence aloft will be weakening as the ridge begins the start of its breakdown. There will be a gradient of lower to higher POPS from east to west because the ridge is centered west of the area. A weak upper level trough will track east across the mid section of the country Wednesday and gradually deepen as it moves across the eastern third of the CONUS. The will continue the process of breaking down the ridge that was over the local area.
Have a frontal boundary analyzed on surface from Rapid City to a low near Gillette with a cold front extending southwest to Casper and eventually Rock Springs this morning at 06Z.
Upper ridge will be in play today along with a rather noticeable warmup. On Wednesday, upper ridge becomes suppressed and shifts to our southeast.
Surface analysis this morning reveals broad high pressure influencing much of the eastern/southeastern CONUS. Some light echoes have been picked up on radar this morning, but dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere is helping to evaporate the precipitation before it even reaches the ground. Upper level ridging will expand into the Ohio Valley, bringing with it much warmer temperatures. Subsidence associated with the ridge and warm air aloft will keep conditions dry today and tonight. Sfc cold front drops south Wednesday night through central Indiana, increasing the chance of showers/storms for southern Indiana and north-central Kentucky.
Warm temperatures across the Midsouth are the result of a broad ridge over the eastern half of the Nation. The ridge may break down slightly after midweek resulting in a better chance of thunderstorms, but no organized weather systems are expected. A broad ridge expected to develop over the Plains and Mississippi River valley resulting in weak steering flow.
/Issued 302 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020/ Summer-like conditions remain on track for eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas later this week and into the upcoming weekend, as upper level ridging continues to build into the region. The main forecast concern during this time frame involve timing any thunderstorm chances across parts of the area associated with both weaknesses in the ridge and any tropical interactions. The first chance for thunderstorms remains on track for this afternoon and into early evening across parts of southeast Oklahoma in association with increasing deep layer moisture and an approaching upper level area of low pressure currently located across West Texas. The aforementioned upper level low slow to exit the region, another round of thunderstorms is likely to affect a larger portion of eastern Oklahoma and especially western Arkansas on Wednesday afternoon.
/issued 237 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020/ A weak low pressure system currently over West Texas will begin lifting northeastward today, resulting in decreasing rain chances across most of the area. Rising heights associated with a ridge to the west of the area will also mark the beginning of a warming trend today, with highs this afternoon warming up a bit closer to normal in the upper 80s to middle 90s for most, with lower 100s through portions of the Rio Grande Valley.
632 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020 Return flow around exiting high pressure will provide above normal temperatures and increasing humidity levels today as dry conditions prevail.
/issued 325 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020/ (Today and Tonight) Upper level low continues to drift slowly north and will eventually make it into Southern Oklahoma later today. Most likely will be not as widespread as what we have seen the last few days, with activity primarily diurnal with only weak upper level support south of the low. Otherwise, a little more sun today will lead to warmer temperatures, with highs in the mid 80s for most locations.
949 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020 High pressure will be in place across the area through the weekend, with deep tropical moisture and upper disturbance energy allowing for widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms through much of the period. Current forecast is on track, with highs this afternoon expected to reach into the upper 80s to around 90 and the highest rain chances across the southern half of the area. High pressure will be in place across the area through the period.
257 AM PDT Tue Jun 2 2020 high pressure will bring a warming trend through Wednesday with the marine layer becoming shallower.
719 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020 Showers push East this morning with a warm front. Strong to severe thunderstorms are then possible with a Wednesday cold front. Light showers will finish crossing the area from the NW with a warm front crossing. Lingering boundaries amid the same occluding low pressure, as well as a developing trough in the upper Midwest will present more opportunities for showers and thunderstorms into this weekend. Restrictions are likely in shra/ts with a Wed cold front, and Thu S of PIT as the front stalls. Restriction potential returns again with a Fri cold front.
Some mid level accas on satellite and weak radar returns starting to show up this morning out west with the influence of the approaching short wave trough to our northwest. Therefore, with increasing upper level lift with the short wave trough moving in, expect sct thunderstorms to develop in north central sd and develop/spread east and southeast through the morning along the developing surface cold pool. The other issue will be if there is redevelopment again this afternoon in the east with lift from the upper level low pressure trough or will it be stabilized. Otherwise, slightly cooler and drier air will be making it into the cwa today on north winds with highs in the 80s.
616 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020 (Today and tonight) An upper low currently located over west TX will migrate northeastward throughout the day.
The general upper-level pattern over the central CONUS has a broad upper-level ridge over the north and central plains, which is being undercut by a low pressure system over Texas. This low pressure system will weaken as the upper-level ridge gets flattened by more active wave activity along the US-Canada Border.
Hot weather settles in across the region the next several days as high pressure strengthens.
608 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020 Short and medium range guidance keeps the remnants of the ridge axis in place through midnight tonight, before breaking down and shifting to the southeast. The main feature developing across the area on Wednesday is a very weak mid-upper level trough (remnants of a closed low currently over western Texas and Texas Panhandle at 3 am CDT).
Today brings little change in the overall pattern, with the 500mb ridge axis shifting slightly eastward while a cut-off low continues to circulate off the southwestern CA coast. Northern stream troughing can be noted over southern Canada into MT per 0830Z water vapor imagery, which will set the stage for several possible disturbances later this week. At the surface, low pressure in SD keeps a pressure gradient over our area. This will bring temperatures to the low 90s across much of the area with upper 80s in east central KS, resulting in heat indices reaching the mid to upper 90s for most places.
405 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020 Today brings little change in the overall pattern, with the 500mb ridge axis shifting slightly eastward while a cut-off low continues to circulate off the southwestern CA coast. Northern stream troughing can be noted over southern Canada into MT per 0830Z water vapor imagery, which will set the stage for several possible disturbances later this week. At the surface, low pressure in SD keeps a pressure gradient over our area. This will bring temperatures to the low 90s across much of the area with upper 80s in east central KS, resulting in heat indices reaching the mid to upper 90s for most places.
1228 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020 The start of June/meteorological summer started hot with highs in the 90s yesterday and we'll see similar conditions this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold frontal moving thru western Neb today. The cold frontal will be focus for showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening and strong to severe storms are possible. The pattern will be less amplified Wednesday as the upper ridge axis breaks down and retrogrades over the desert southwest with leaving fairly zonal flow across the northern third of the CONUS. Temps will trend several degrees cooler in the post frontal airmass.
The clouds will return this evening ahead of the cold front tonight. As the cold front moves through the region this evening, there will be a complex of thunderstorms moving into southern Wisconsin from the northwest.
202 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020 High pressure will remain over the area through Wednesday.
(This evening through Wednesday) The weak upper low wobbling northward from the Red River region of southwestern Oklahoma will be responsible for a few showers and maybe thunderstorms later this afternoon in that area. Tomorrow, this upper low will weaken and open, but still provide sufficient lift in the moist airmass for showers/thunderstorms in southeastern Oklahoma during the afternoon. As this feature exits east, the upper ridge will build strongly building toward Oklahoma.
253 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2020 NW low level flow continues this afternoon, in the wake of this morning cold front passage.
1122 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020 Return flow around exiting high pressure will provide above normal temperatures and increasing humidity levels today as dry conditions prevail.
Dry air in the lower and middle levels of the atmosphere make the eventual coverage of storms somewhat questionable. While shear (both deep layer and low-level) will be weak, the high amounts of instability will support a Marginal to Slight Risk for severe storms. Lows Wednesday night will be a tad warmer with surface dew points creeping up.
353 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020 An area of showers and thunderstorms is affecting parts of Pine County and northwest Wisconsin this afternoon as a cold front passes through. As the cold front moves southeast tonight, skies will generally start to clear as high pressure moves in from the west. An upper level trough traversing across northern Minnesota tonight may bring some isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm, but otherwise the trend will be clearing out overnight. High pressure will keep the weather quiet on Wednesday with highs reaching the upper 70s to low 80s. Cloud cover will begin to increase late Wednesday night ahead of an upper level trough and cold front approaching from the west.
201 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020 Return flow around exiting high pressure will provide above normal temperatures and increasing humidity levels today as dry conditions prevail.
930 AM PDT Tue Jun 2 2020 High pressure aloft over the Southwest will bring a warming trend through Wednesday.
This should allow for a persistent low-amplitude midlevel ridge axis to remain across the southern US for foreseeable future. Heat indices will be 2-3 degrees warmer than the air temperature. In regards to temperatures, another hot and humid afternoon is expected with high temperatures in the lower 90s and heat indices nearing 100 degrees.
357 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020 A warm front will slowly move across the state tonight.
Currently, the upper air maps shower an upper level ridge stretching north over most of the southern half of the Conus, with a weakly organized upper low meandering around over the Southern Plains. A low level ridge is stretching west over the Southeast to the Plains from high pressure just off the Atlantic coast. With a cooler day expected Wednesday (temperatures topping out in the low to mid 80s), the chance of strong to severe storms decreases with decreased instability (MLCapes topping out in the 500-1000J/kg range).
235 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020 Scattered showers/thunderstorms will remain possible this afternoon across southeast Oklahoma as weak upper low approaches from the west. Could again see isolated storms develop Wednesday afternoon across southeast Oklahoma and west- central Arkansas before upper low shifts east.
During the day today, ridging will remain in place overhead as temperatures heat up once again. By the afternoon/early evening, thickness values and southerly flow will support temperatures even slightly warmer than yesterday, reaching into the mid 80s to mid 90s with warmer temperatures west of the I-135 corridor. By early afternoon, a weak upper low will drift into eastern Oklahoma/Arkansas and may provide for some storms to initiate in southeast Kansas as capping erodes. Perhaps the more interesting feature on Wednesday will come later in the evening and overnight hours, when models continue to suggest that a complex of storms that will form across the High Plains during the evening and then push eastward into central and perhaps south central Kansas overnight.
150 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020 We will remain between high pressure over the southeast US, and a frontal system well off to our north tonight. A prefrontal trof may also support some convergence.
453 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020 Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday with the approach and passage of a cold front. Lingering boundaries amid the same occluding low pressure, as well as a developing trough in the upper Midwest will present more opportunities for showers and thunderstorms into this weekend.
Given this environment, the highest threat for strong to severe threat could potentially be along Highway 14 in east-central SD/southwest Minnesota late this afternoon, then spread south-southeast into southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa this evening as the front moves through.
Widely scattered light rain showers may continue into the afternoon along a weak mid level trough oriented from northeast to southwest, moving east across the state.
The forecast remains on track with broad mid/upper ridging over the southern CONUS and sprawling Bermuda high pressure at the surface. Both of these features will continue to dominate our weather through the day with SSW low-level flow advecting warmer and more humid air into the region. VFR will prevail through the period as high pressure dominates the southern Appalachians. RG Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 88 68 86 68 / 0 20 10 60 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 88 69 86 67 / 0 10 10 60 30 Oak Ridge, TN 66 88 67 86 67 / 0 10 10 60 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 85 65 84 64 / 0 10 10 70 30.
Generally dry conditions then follow with warmer temperatures for the remainder of the work week. Unsettled and cooler conditions are likely this weekend. Otherwise, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop Wednesday afternoon due to the combination of instability and the passage of a cold front. Weak high pressure and dry weather to start the period.