Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Only minor changes to POPs, snow accumulation, temps, and wind for the first half of today as EFS and high resolution model guidance are fairly consistent with the timing and location of the snowfall and highlighting areas of NW PA where more significant accums are expected from several rounds of QPF (Warm Advection, along the cold front and later colder but moist westerly upslope flow into Laurels and NW mtns). Across the central ridges and Lower Susq Valley, the mean (and not so cold) westerly llvl flow will keep skies mostly cloudy for the rest of the daylight hours with little or no additional precipitation. Med range guidance all showing mean upper trough over the eastern through the rest of the week, supporting a cold and generally dry forecast.
Surface analysis this morning shows high pressure centered over the FL peninsula ridging through the SE US. North of the area, a weak cold front is slowly making its way through the Ohio Valley. For today, the warming trend continues as low level flow from the W/SW ushers in a warmer air mass for late January.
943 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2017 A broad trough sits over the eastern CONUS this morning, with northwesterly flow aloft over the Mid-South. /issued 256 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2017/ Currently temperatures were running some ten to twenty degrees warmer than this time last night. After midnight tonight increased low level moisture ahead of an approaching cold front could produce some patchy fog.
Some of the high resolution models indicate that the line will hold together and drop SE through the Wahpeton Breckenridge area and then into Grant County MN.
948 AM EST Tue Jan 31 2017 Low pressure moving through the eastern Great Lakes will cause scattered rain and snow showers today.
432 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2017 Surface analysis this morning shows high pressure centered over the FL peninsula ridging through the SE US. North of the area, a weak cold front is slowly making its way through the Ohio Valley. For today, the warming trend continues as low level flow from the W/SW ushers in a warmer air mass for late January.
1029 AM EST Tue Jan 31 2017 Low pressure over the Great Lakes will pass north of the area today. High pressure will build in for the rest of the week. Gusty winds will persist through the day with a tight gradient south of low pressure tracking across the lower Great Lakes. Main question is whether there will be enough precipitation falling out of the mid deck to moisten the low levels and allow for any measurable precipitation. If any precipitation does make it to the surface, it looks like another case of either rain or snow depending on depth of low level above freezing air. Stayed on the cooler side of guidance for Wednesday highs.
730 AM PST Tue Jan 31 2017 Sunny and warm today with high pressure aloft and weak offshore flow at the surface.
Many locations this morning dropped into the mid to upper 30s early this morning, with a few observations even briefly dropping to freezing. Favorable boating conditions expected as high pressure centered over the central FL peninsula generates a light to gentle W/SW breeze over the coastal waters.
638 AM EST Tue Jan 31 2017 Weak high pressure gives way to the next organized system in the form of a clipper low that tracks to our south producing widespread light snowfall Tuesday night and Wednesday. The second half of the week will see a quiet period of weather under persistent northwest flow with some light snow showers mainly in the higher elevations. Ridge of high pressure moves east as the area starts Tuesday with partly cloudy skies before clouds increase through the afternoon. High temperatures for Tuesday will mainly be in the upper teens to mid 20s, while overnight lows will be in the teens while the Champlain Valley will stay in the lower 20s.
816 AM EST Tue Jan 31 2017 Dry stable conditions under high pressure covering the forecast area will support pleasant dry conditions across the region the remainder of today. Despite the low humidity though low ERC values and sustain winds of less than 15 mph will preclude Red Flag conditions with no fire weather issues expected.
By Wednesday afternoon, the frontal boundary will begin to drift north under the influence of an incoming trough off the Pacific coast and its associated southwesterly flow aloft.
518 AM EST Tue Jan 31 2017 A low pressure system will move southeast across Lower Michigan this morning, bringing a mix of snow and rain. Have trimmed back a few counties on the south edge of the advisory given temperatures rising above freezing with a rain/snow mix. Roads should be mainly just wet where temperatures have risen above freezing. A broad upper level trof will develop over central North America causing temperatures to fall below normal during the latter half of this week. Temperatures will remain below freezing Thurs-Sat with highs mainly in the 20s.
A cold front extending to the Northeast from that low center will be becoming nearly stationary over parts of Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and Southwest Arkansas Wednesday night with patchy fog and light rain developing along and near the low and frontal boundary.
As surface temperatures were running cooler than observations temperatures were increased by a couple degrees and the relative humidity was changed due to increase in surface temperatures. A cold front extending to the Northeast from that low center will be becoming nearly stationary over parts of Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and Southwest Arkansas Wednesday night with patchy fog and light rain developing along and near the low and frontal boundary.
644 AM EST Tue Jan 31 2017 Low pressure over the Great Lakes will pass north of the area today. High pressure will build in for the rest of the week. Gusty winds will persist through the day with a tight gradient south of low pressure tracking across the lower Great Lakes. Main question is whether there will be enough precipitation falling out of the mid deck to moisten the low levels and allow for any measurable precipitation. If any precipitation does make it to the surface, it looks like another case of either rain or snow depending on depth of low level above freezing air. Stayed on the cooler side of guidance for Wednesday highs.
1036 AM EST Tue Jan 31 2017 High pressure has settled in across Florida, dropping overnight temperatures into the 30s and 40s across the southern half of the peninsula. North to northeast breezes are gusting to 17-19 knots across marine and land stations along the island chain, quite surprising given the proximity of the high.
An intensifying interaction between high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and low pressure in the Central Plains will result in a breezy onshore flow today with VFR cloud decks. /issued 411 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): Zonal 500 mb flow initially over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will transition to filling 500 mb low pressure that will shift from the southern Baja Peninsula to directly over the BRO CWFA. Combined with the mid-level flow, and no cold front passages anticipated, dry weather will prevail for the short term portion of the forecast.
High pressure will dominate our weather with the storm track remaining north of the area through this weekend. Latest water imagery shows a ridge of high pressure centered to the west of the Baja peninsula extending into the Desert Southwest with broad troughing across the eastern US. A very quiet week of weather is in store into the weekend as ridging aloft remains in control. Temperatures will remain above normal as with highs in the low to mid 70's for desert locations and upper 60s to lower 70's for eastern valleys.
1034 AM EST Tue Jan 31 2017 Low pressure over the Great Lakes will track into New York state this afternoon. A warm front will continue to lift north into Pennsylvania today with a cold front crossing the area this evening.
Meanwhile,troughing over Texas as part of the now sheared cutoff low from earlier in the week and a high pressure over Northern Florida wedges Central AL in an area of southwesterly flow with some isentropic lift ahead of this slow moving front.
Moderating thermal profile prompted by a steady increase in upper heights through this period, the local area immediately downstream of an elongating upper ridge slowly building toward the Great Lakes. Deeper column warm air advection ramps up tonight and Saturday as the flow backs to westerly, allowing for a steady exit of the residual low level thermal trough. High pressure anchoring across the Ohio Valley will then introduce a light southwest low level gradient. 925 mb temperatures by Saturday afternoon roughly 10 degrees warmer than readings noted today /10- 11C/. This profile will support afternoon highs reaching into the lower 60s. A high degree of uncertainty here, with the maintenance of a light SW gradient north of the high perhaps maintaining just enough mixing to mitigate a larger fog issue.
313 PM MDT Fri Nov 4 2016 As mentioned in earlier discussions, moisture began to spread over the southern half of the forecast area during the morning ahead of a closed low pressure system centered over south-central Arizona. Shower activity will increase over the Four Corners region and the San Juan and Abajo mountains as the low center shifts to northeast Arizona overnight. At higher elevations, snow will begin to accumulate but 7H temperatures near 3 deg C should limit accumulations to areas above 11000 feet and will limit road impacts in the high passes of the San Juan's until after midnight. Rain and snow continue into Saturday as the low center moves across northwest New Mexico to the border area south of Durango by Saturday evening.
The upper level low pressure system over southern Arizona will lift northeast to the Four Corners region tonight and into western Colorado tomorrow.
219 PM MDT Fri Nov 4 2016 Weather impacts over the next few days will be minimal as a weakening upper low rides up from the southwest.
High pressure will produce dry and stable conditions through Saturday.
Latest LAMP Guidance suggest current forecast highs may be a bit warm today, but not sure if GFS is resolving the boundary layer adequately as the 12z sounding suggests temps about 5 degrees warmer than the LAMP. with cold front now well to the south across the northern Gulf States. Temp/dewpoint spreads across the KILX CWA currently range from 0-4 degrees, with the lowest spreads concentrated along/south of I-70. High temperatures will mostly be in the lower 60s, with a few middle 60s across the far W/SW. Skies will remain clear tonight, with low temperatures ranging from the upper 30s in the Wabash River Valley to the lower to middle 40s west of I-55.
Cold front moving into north Florida is still expected to reach Lake and Volusia counties near to just before sunset, and then continue southward across the area through tonight.
A cold front will shift winds front north this afternoon to east- northeast overnight. The upper level pattern this morning shows a trough exiting the East Coast, a ridge across the Great Plains and a cut-off low over Arizona. 12Z surface analysis showed a cold front across the Tennessee Valley.
334 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016 Nicely stacked cyclone was creeping ENE across SE Arizona early this afternoon upstream of an upper ridge axis poised over the middle of the Lone Star State. A weak trough was attempting to erode this trough, but so far ascent and low level saturation have been lackluster with this wave. Lift there will be aided by a zone of weakening upper diffluence ahead of the cyclone lifting NE across the Four Corners.
403 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 High pressure will remain over the Ohio Valley through Saturday. A cold front will pass through Saturday night.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL THREE TAF SITES DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE. DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPS ADVECTED IN.
220 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016 Water vapor imagery shows ridging over the Plains with a closed upper low spinning over the desert southwest. At the surface, ridging extends from the Ohio Valley into the southern Plains with some weak lee troughing over western Nebraska/northeast CO. Focus of the first few days of the forecast will revolve around the upper low spinning over the desert sw. Some showers and storms may linger over central/eastern KS Mon night into Tue morning but by Tue afternoon should be south of the forecast area, closer to the closed off upper low over the sw conus. While temps look to be cooler than they have been the last several days, they are still expected to be close to or even a few degrees above seasonal averages for the Tue-Fri time frame.
The low has lifted just north of our area near the central Arizona border with New Mexico. However, the main strength of the ridge will probably stay west of our area with impulses sagging back into the front of the ridge and into New Mexico.
Some Snow on the Way for the Higher Elevations. The old upper low that has been spinning along the Arizona/Mexico border for the past 2 days is finally making a move. IR satellite pictures this afternoon have shown a decent area of cooling/expanding clouds in the northeast quadrant of the low, spinning up into southwest Colorado. For the lower elevations, some spotty precipitation is possible, mainly late tonight and Saturday, but significant amounts are not anticipated at this time.
Surface cold front is now south and east of the cwa.
155 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 High pressure will remain over the Ohio Valley through Saturday.
424 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 High pressure will build over our region though Saturday. A weak cold front will move across the area Saturday night.
The high pressure ridge will slide east overnight.
422 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016 Tonight and Saturday, Latest satellite imagery showed mid to upper ridging building across the region from the west as the cold front swings through southern Mississippi. The upper trough associated with the front was moving over the eastern seaboard. As far as temps are concerned lows will dip into the middle 40s to the lower 50s.
VFR/SKC conditions expected through 05/18Z per dominance of ridging influences sfc/aloft.
1212 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016 The weather remains quiet and unseasonably warm during the short term periods under the influence of an upper level ridge of high pressure.
305 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 A cold front, now well to the south of the area, will continue to usher in dry and cool air across the area. With high pressure building in from the north and east, anticipate northeasterly flow through the short term with CAA helping to keep temperatures in the low 70s for Saturday. Overall pattern to start the period will feature fairly extensive ridge across the US in the mid/upper levels. with embedded trough around 4 corners region. while sfc pattern features expansive area of high pressure east of Rockies. ENsemble data indicates closed low forming over the Southern Rockies or Southern Plains. This would allow minor perturbations associated with main closed low to tap into Gulf moisture enroute towards our local area.
mainly the higher terrain. Over the weekend, the low will depart with dry and warmer conditions prevailing. The upper low responsible for the shower and thunderstorm activity the past couple days was centered roughly over Gila County early this afternoon. As the low tracks slowly northeastward, there will be an increasing northerly component to the flow. The upper low will be centered near the 4 Corners during the day Saturday. Otherwise, dry and mostly clear conditions can be expected for our forecast area along with a high temps a few degrees warmer.
1046 AM PDT Fri Nov 4 2016 High pressure will bring mild, dry weather to the region through tonight.
108 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 High pressure will maintain dry weather and seasonal temperature for the weekend. Strengthening high pressure is forecast to maintain dry weather for the first half of the new week, albeit with moderating temperature as heights rise/warm advection ensues in advance of Western CONUS troughing. As mid week approaches, upper flow through the eastward digging trough is projected to split as per the NAEFS and latest GFS and ECMWF, hence robbing the Upper Ohio Region of a deep moisture increase.
VFR/SKC conditions are expected thru 05/18Z per dominance of high pressure influences sfc/aloft.
High pressure aloft will make for sunny skies, light winds, and unseasonably warm temperatures through the weekend.
The shallow moist air present will continue to potentially support rain showers, particularly with the presence of the mid-level trough swinging through and lower level atmospheric moisture ripples as the boundary dissipates. As high pressure begins to build in behind the front to kick off the next work week, shower chances should continue to remain in the lower end of the spectrum.
Dry weather conditions and warmer than normal temperatures will continue today as high pressure remains over California.
554 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016 A broad ridge of high pressure remains across the area, bringing dry and warm conditions over the next 24 hours. Given this southerly wind flow, temperatures tonight will range from the lower to mids 40s. Saturday looks dry, and pleasant with high temperatures in the lower 70s east of the James River Valley to near 80 west. closed low will be starting to shear northeast across the central Rockies by Saturday night.
A closed low over the Desert Southwest pushes east, pushing an upper ridge over the Plains eastward a bit. With the approaching upper ridge bringing increasing subsidence (and temps remaining above seasonal as a result), this leads a strong rh gradient across the fcst area Saturday (rh bottoming out in the 20 to 25% east to 30-35% west Saturday). As mentioned above, with the return of subsidence with the approaching upper ridge, temps remain above seasonal.
101 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 Low pressure will exit east of the maritimes today.
A cold front is poised to move through the area late in the day and into this evening.
/issued 356 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016/ SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): 500 mb high pressure centered over Tamaulipas State in neighboring Mexico will gradually shift southwest, but will generally leave weak ridging over the Lone Star State by the end of the forecast period. Meanwhile, a weak cold front will approach the BRO CWFA from the north and move through. With no significant cold air in the wake of the cold front, the ongoing trend of above normal temperatures for the daytime and overnight hours will persist.
An upper level low over srn AZ will gradually move nne today thru tonight and be approaching the four corners area by 12z Sat. For tonight not sure about shower threat in the higher terrain south of I-70. A weak upper level low will be near the Four Corners area 12z Saturday morning. The low is progged to drift north-northwest and weaken through the weekend. This low will help increase moisture across the area, mainly at the mid and upper levels. The increase in cloud cover should keep temperatures a little cooler this weekend.
651 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 High pressure will build over our region though Saturday. A weak cold front will move across the area Saturday night.
240 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 High pressure will maintain dry weather and seasonal temperatures for the weekend.
348 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 High pressure will build over our region though Saturday. A weak cold front will move across the area Saturday night.
213 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016 High pressure in firm control of the local weather pattern this afternoon and very little will change this upcoming weekend. Tomorrow will be much like today with highs warming into the lower 70s.
Water vapor imagery showing upper ridge over the central states with cut-off low over southern Arizona. High cloud was starting to enter southwestern Kansas downstream of the low with clear skies elsewhere and 0Z TOP sounding rather dry through the troposphere. 9 micron satellite imagery and observations show the northern edge of the fog eroding with some northeast wind persisting in the lower few thousand feet.
458 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 High pressure will maintain dry weather and seasonal temperatures for the weekend. Stratocu across Ohio and northern West Virginia will dissipate with sunset, otherwise clear and cool under High pressure, with temperatures a blend of model guidance.
1206 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016 Elongated area of high pressure will result in continued tranquil conditions across the area. As center of the high refocuses in the western Great Lakes region weak return flow will develop across the region. Actual highs continue to be warmer than guidance, and have raised forecast highs in most locations. Have blended in some MOS values to get cooler radiational lows.
412 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016 A broad ridge of high pressure remains across the area, bringing dry and warm conditions over the next 24 hours. Given this southerly wind flow, temperatures tonight will range from the lower to mids 40s. Saturday looks dry, and pleasant with high temperatures in the lower 70s east of the James River Valley to near 80 west. closed low will be starting to shear northeast across the central Rockies by Saturday night.
327 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016 No significant highlights in the short term period as a mid level ridge/700-500mb axis propagates across central ND continuing with an overall clear sky and above normal temperatures.
251 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 In the wake of the cold front moving exiting off the NC coast, cool high pressure will build south into the Carolinas through the weekend.
137 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 Strong Canadian high pressure will build into the area today and tonight, settling over the region much of the upcoming week. Have removed pops from the forecast for today as all significant precip has moved offshore with the cold front.
1128 AM MDT Fri Nov 4 2016 Latest upper air analysis shows the closed low near Baja California and the upper level ridge over the Great Basin and Plains to have moved little in the last day. Lows may be a few degrees warmer due to some cloud cover moving overhead as the upper level low approaches from the southwest. Regarding the track of the upper level low, continue to have doubts about how quickly the closed low will merge back into the upper level flow and eventually over the Tri-State Area. Models now have the closed low slightly further south over the Four Corners Area by Saturday morning compared to the model runs from this time yesterday.
332 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016 At 3PM, temperatures are over-performing guidance once again, even under moderate cold air advection, with readings in the lower to mid 70s areawide.
201 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016 Upper low over AZ today will slowly lift NE and open up as it moves across the 4 Corners region tonight and Saturday. As it moves east it will displace the upper ridge southward.
243 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 A trough of low pressure will approach from the northwest tonight and will cross the region on Saturday.
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): H5 trough is beginning to open up into the central plains, with a large area of diffluence out ahead of it, noted by the large swath of clouds from eastern colorado to the mountains in northern Mexico. The trough will be progressing very slowly the next 24 hours, so upper diffluence remains good enough to continue to allow showers to form.
145 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 High pressure will cross our region tonight. While this large area of high pressure will generally supply us with fair weather for the weekend, a shower cannot be ruled out east of Lake Ontario. Patchy cloud cover and some wind should limit radiational cooling tonight, with lows ranging from the lower 40s across the lake plains to mid 30s across the interior.
401 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016 High pressure will extend over the region tonight. This Evening and Tonight: A cold front will continue to shift south/southeast of the area this evening with little impact to the region. Dry and much cooler high pressure will then build from the north behind the departing cold front. Strong cold air advection to the region will help promote mixing in the low-lvls and prevent winds from decoupling overnight. Deep layered high pressure will prevail through the weekend.