Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY PULLS SLOWLY OFF TO OUR EAST AND HEADS INTO NEW ENGLAND. AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS. TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 20S AROUND THE AREA. HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER.
543 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016 A deep long-wave trough over the eastern half of the country with strong upper level northwesterly flow from the northern plains into the southeastern U. Highs should reach from the upper teens along the I-74 corridor to the low 20s through Jacksonville-Springfield- Effingham-Lawrenceville. Deep trof over the eastern half of the country will continue to dominate the weather through the end of the week and into the weekend. Lighter winds at the surface, but the temperatures will remain well below freezing into the weekend.
VERY BENIGN SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WITH LARGE SCALE RIDGING IN PLACE OVERHEAD. THIS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO NEAR 80F ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. WARMER ALONG THE COAST WITH BETTER ONSHORE FLOW. MUCH THE SAME ON THURSDAY AS TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. THEN THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ANOTHER EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE WEST COAST BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO APPROACH THE COAST COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
Southern sections, along the I-10 corridor, will see lighter winds and cooler temperatures in the mid 30s.
305 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. GIVING WAY TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND.
THE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LAKE-ENHANCEMENT WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT. INCLUDING AN EXTENSION OF THE CURRENT LONG-DURATION WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE RIDGE COMMUNITIES.
947 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY. STILL HAVE A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DW PTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 40S COAST. WILL SEE WARMER TEMPS TODAY.
629 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016 A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U. ONLY THE LOWER SUSQ WILL HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT CLEARING OUT TODAY ON THE DOWNHILL SIDE OF THE WESTERLY FLOW. SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THRU THIS EVENING AND CARVES THE BASE OF THE BIGGER TROUGH. THIS MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER ORGANIZATION TO THE UPSLOPE SNOW AND PUSH SOME ACCUMULATION OVER THE ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL/RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST ON THURS.
857 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ENHANCED BETWEEN THIS BUILDING HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST. AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A HIGH BUILDING FROM THE WEST.
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 33 26 45 27 / 10 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 28 22 38 24 / 30 10 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 29 21 39 23 / 30 10 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 24 15 31 18 / 40 10 0 0 NC.
223 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016 PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA TODAY. PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BLOCKING THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND KEEPING IT NORTH IN OREGON/WASHINGTON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA TODAY AND TRAVEL PROBLEMS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE TASTE WINTER TO NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SLUG OF VORTICITY STREAKS DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTING AND FLATTENING. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
NAM PROFILES IN BUFKIT CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE LOSS OF ICE AND A TRANSITION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE ON THE WESTERN EXTREME OF THE BAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THOUGH AGAIN WE RUN INTO ICE INTRODUCTION ISSUES SO FREEZING DRIZZLE IS ALSO AN OUTCOME.
THE RIDGE AXIS HAS NOW MOVED INTO THE GREAT BASIN, AND THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER US IS ALLOWING LOTS OF HIGH CLOUD TO STREAM OVER THE AREA. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ROUGHLY THE SAME THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION TRYING TO COME IN FROM THE WEST BUT MAKING LITTLE PROGRESS AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE PARKED JUST TO OUR EAST.
Temperatures will stay fairly mild, though temperature inversions will be present, keeping mid and upper slopes warmer than valleys. Moisture will begin to move into the region during the end of the week as the ridge moves east and southwesterly flow develops.
WENT AHEAD WITH THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE BORDEAUX AREA. PERSISTENCE FORECAST IS IN ORDER FOR THURSDAY WITH TEMPS PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER UNDER MORE CLOUD COVER STREAMING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE TIME BEING. FREEZING FOG IS A POSSIBILITY OVER THE VALLEY LOCATIONS EACH MORNING.
510 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016 TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE PERIOD AS AREA REMAINS UNDER STRONG AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY.
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD DROP TO NEAR FREEZING OVER THE INTERIOR. WE COULD SEE A BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AGAIN BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM WEST.
325 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WELL IN CONTROL OF THE WEST COAST THIS MIDWEEK DAY. A TROF PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL INTRODUCE SOME CLOUDS OVER THE DISTRICT.
THIS FITS WITH THE LOWER END OF THE SNOW TOTAL RANGE ON RADAR ESTIMATE.
933 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016 AVIATION SECTION UPDATED AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA TODAY.
RIDGE AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR MILD WEATHER HAS SLID A TAD FURTHER EAST AND NOW IS LINED UP OVER IDAHO. THE OTHER ISSUE IS THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION IN THE FALLON COUNTY VICINITY TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE /CURRENTLY NEAR THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE/ THAT WILL RACE AROUND THE RIDGE AND DROP DOWN INTO EASTERN MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AND THUS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING PRECIPITATION. BUT WILL SIMPLY CARRY A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION ON SAT ASSOCIATED THE PACIFIC WAVE. SYNOPTIC RIDGING RETURNS TO THE AREA FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH DRIER WEATHER.
/ISSUED 246 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/ A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE WHERE UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
522 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016 H5 WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA SHARPENING THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY DIVIDING COOLER AIR AND CLOUDS TO THE EAST AND CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST. TONIGHT COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE WITH SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INDICATE A GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR DRIZZLE AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE RATHER THAN SNOW/RAIN AS THE MOISTURE PROFILE IS SHALLOW AND ONLY INVADES THE DGZ FOR A SHORT WHILE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS REACHING FURTHER EASTWARD. REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ALLOW MORE MODERATE BREEZES FOR THE DURATION OF THIS WORK WEEK.
BUT SOME BRIEF MODERATE BURSTS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR TONIGHT THE ABOVE MENTIONED CLOUDS MAY LAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WHICH WOULD KEEP THURSDAY'S MRNG LOWS A LITTLE WARMER (MID 20S) THAN THIS MRNG LOWS.
507 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016 A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U. ONLY THE LOWER SUSQ WILL HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT CLEARING OUT TODAY ON THE DOWNHILL SIDE OF THE WESTERLY FLOW. SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THRU THIS EVENING AND CARVES THE BASE OF THE BIGGER TROUGH. THIS MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER ORGANIZATION TO THE UPSLOPE SNOW AND PUSH SOME ACCUMULATION OVER THE ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL/RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST ON THURS.
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 10/16Z AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH VFR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z.
EXCEPT CLOSE TO THE GULF COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD KEEP READINGS A LITTLE COOLER.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND MEANDER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. IN A PERSISTENT REGIME OF LOW TO MID LEVEL (SUB-TROPICAL) RIDGING EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE CAROLINAS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE U. THE BIGGER FEATURE WILL BE THE CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST FLORIDA COAST. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND REMAINS THE EVOLUTION OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING HAS MADE LESS PROGRESS IN OUR DIRECTION THAN EXPECTED, BUT NEVERTHELESS, IT CONTINUES TO MEANDER TO THE SOUTH. LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOWS THE LOW OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A CHANGE TODAY. THE LOW WILL BE VERTICALLY STACKED, AND AS IT PULLS TO THE SOUTH, STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN OVER EASTERN KLAMATH, LAKE, AND MODOC COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON.
AND ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DYNAMICS FROM THE SW U. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
1215 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015 SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT HAS LED TO DENSE FOR FORMATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA. SUBTLE WARM FRONT CREEPING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. STILL UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY WAVE AND COLD FRONT SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA.
432 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 AN UPPER-LEVEL COMPOSITE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATES AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
THEN ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE INTO THE LATE EVENING BEFORE THE BRUNT OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARM FRONT TO SURGE NORTHWARD AND SHOULD LEAD TO WIDE-REACHING SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG GUIDANCE TO LIGHT UP A LOT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN MN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UPPER LOW OVER WASHINGTON STATE THIS MORNING WILL DROP SOUTH INTO OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY THROUGH NORTHERN CA INTO CENTRAL CA. CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV UNDER MOIST FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
146 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR THE BAHAMAS BY WEDNESDAY THEN DRIFT NORTH AND LINGER JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL RIDGE WEST INTO THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE SLIGHTLY LIMITED BY DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NC. RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PINCHED AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE WATERS. POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW ATLANTIC TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE WEEK.
CONSIDERABLE WARMING OF THE LOW-LEVELS WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FEED INSTABILITY TO THE POINT OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY. TAX UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND ONLY SPOTTY. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGES. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARM TEMPERATURES.
AN H5 CLOSED LOW OVER COLORADO AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS COMBINED WITH RICH 335K H925-H7 THETA-E MOISTURE FLOW ON SOUTHERLY NOCTURNAL LOW-LVL JET OF 40 KT WAS SUPPORTING THE HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE MAIN BRANCH OF FORCING HAS SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH AS THE OVERALL PARENT TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THUS A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS. LATEST 06Z GFS HAS SLOWED A H7 S/WV TROUGH VS.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO WESTERN KANSAS UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT THEN MOVES BACK INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS NEAR DODGE CITY WITH MORE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN. WITH LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER TOMORROW MORNING.
315 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2015 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INLAND THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY WILL MAINTAIN STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WITH MINOR INLAND COOLING. AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER WITH NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXTENDING INLAND ONTO THE LOWER COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES.
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CO/WY BORDER BY 12Z WEDNESDAY THEN INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z THURSDAY. LEAVING THE LOCAL AREA IN THE COOLER AIRMASS RESULTING IN ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY.
252 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CO/WY BORDER BY 12Z WEDNESDAY THEN INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z THURSDAY. A CUT OFF LOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA THIS WEEKEND. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE REGION. ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE HIGHEST VALUES OF 0-6 KM SHEAR APPROACHING 60 KTS.
303 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015 EARLY THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS IS PROBABLY MOSTLY IN RESPONSE TO 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS AND ITS CORRESPONDING SURFACE PRESSURE RESPONSE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES FROM YET ANOTHER APPROACHING/DEEPENING MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
403 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015 A WEAK TROUGH AXIS LOCATED FROM DALLAS TO NEAR AUSTIN THEN BENDS SE TOWARD VICTORIA TEXAS THEN EAST WELL OUT OVER THE GULF. THE PORTION OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE GULF WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TODAY REACHING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST BY THURSDAY.
342 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED IN SHORT TERM AS FAR AS LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TO JUST OFF SHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THIS EVENING.
MID AND UPPER RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW. STILL NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO CONFIDENTLY MENTION SHOWERS IN THE LOW LANDS. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. UPPER RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
324 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015 FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR MACOMB TO PARIS ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS MORNING AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG. BIGGER SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SW OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS OR SO AND WILL KEEP THE WESTERN US UNDER A TROF, AMPLIFYING THE PATTERN AND SETTING UP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE MIDWEST.
/ISSUED 1049 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015/ FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. /ISSUED 342 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015/ UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA IN THE SHORT TERM. EVEN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITIES DO INCREASE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THAT AREA BUT NOTHING MAJOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEP THINGS SUBDUED. 01 INITIAL CONCERN IS THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY.
356 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. MODELS DEPICT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY FORMS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS INDICATE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL. AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING A STRONG UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. WEST COLD FRONT.
504 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND INTO TEXAS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN A PERSIST WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND.
352 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT.
RIDGE CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE AREA AND HAS TRAPPED SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. HELPING TO KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER. ONCE AGAIN EXPECTING ANOTHER QUIET AND PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE AREA, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. AGAIN THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON, SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
AND A WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA. THIS RAIN IS BEING PRODUCED BY 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND A SURFACE WARM FRONT IN NORTHERN IOWA. 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TO THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONTOGENESIS AND WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOCUS OF RAIN. KEPT THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE LOWEST IN THESE AREAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER WITH THE COLD FRONT PRODUCING LINEAR CONVECTION AND 0-3 KM UP TO 40 KNOTS COULD NOT RULE SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND.
AND SHAVED A COUPLE DEGREES FROM THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY.
1237 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015 CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A CLOUDY AND SOMEWHAT COOLER DAY IN MOST LOCATIONS.
354 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
519 AM CDT Wed May 6 2015 An upper level trough is over the western half of the conus with westerly to southwesterly flow over the CWA. Upper lift will increase ahead of this trough today as indicated by the NAM80 500 omega values over the Permian Basin. Bulk shear vectors will be good with the best values being across the Lower Trans Pecos. Mid-level lapse rates will be marginal with the highest values across the Lower Trans Pecos.
00Z MOS GUIDANCE STRUGGLING AS WELL WITH LARGE DISPARITY BETWEEN HIGHER RESOLUTION MET GUIDANCE BEING MUCH COOLER THAN MAV OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHILE VERY CLOSE IN THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
MID AND UPPER RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW. WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW UNDER MID AND UPPER RIDGE. SO CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THERE. THE 700 MB RIDGE CENTER TO OUR E TRIES TO GIVE A WEAK E FLOW INTO SW VA. UPPER RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
332 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015 A H5 HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER MID ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK WESTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND MUCH OF THURSDAY. A TROPICALLY INFLUENCED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BEGIN TO CIRCULATE ONTO THE SOUTHEAST U. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY HELP WEAKEN THE HIGH.
Upper ridging continues to keep the region warm and relatively dry. The strength of the upper ridge will weaken a little during the day Wednesday, as the feature developing off the southeast U. The ridge aloft will continue to bring above normal temperatures to the region, with highs maybe a little warmer than today.
/ISSUED 635 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/ 00Z TAF CYCLE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE THREE TAF SITES BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. /ISSUED 322 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/ CLOSED UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY TONIGHT. THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT TRACKS NORTH AND EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WEDNESDAY. AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 60S. UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
IN ADDITION THERE IS A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN GULF WITH SOUTH FLORIDA EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN ADDITION THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 3 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE SEASONAL NORM AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE COOLER MID LEVELS AND DRIER MID TO UPPER LEVELS.
UPPER LOW WILL DROP FROM WASHINGTON SOUTH INTO NRN CA BY 12Z THU. WITH THE WARM MET AT 70 AND THE COOLER MAV AT 58.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER LOW SLIDING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT ABOUT AS PREDICTED BY MODELS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 4-9 THOUSAND FEET ARE MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
1210 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015 A WARM FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. A MID LEVEL NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT BRINGING INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGH PLAINS.
157 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TO THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.