Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM KDRI. /ISSUED 946 AM CST WED DEC 16 2015/ A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHCENTRAL LA. AFTN HIGH IN THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO UPPER 60S SOUTH EXPECTED. /ISSUED 441 AM CST WED DEC 16 2015/ COLD FRONT CONTINUES STEADY EWD PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AS IT EXTENDS ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ELD TO SHV AND OCH.
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING. WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING ACROSS ARIZONA LOWER DESERT COMMUNITIES.
238 PM CST WED DEC 16 2015 COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S AREAWIDE WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE.
The atmospheric river will shift southward late tonight into Sunday morning as the upper trough approaches spreading precipitation inland across NorCal. 8-12 inches of snow accumulation are expected at the higher elevations with perhaps 2-4 inches down to around 5000 ft.
THE 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.
MOST DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S AND THAT LOOKS REASONABLE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. FAVORING THE WARMER EDGE OF THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE. BY SUNDAY EVENING A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN US. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST.
754 PM PST SAT NOV 14 2015 A warm front is lifting north of the area ahead of a cold front that will bring cooler temperatures and another round of strong and gusty winds Sunday.
/ISSUED 428 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015/ STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
542 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015 MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AT THIS POINT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT AROUND 60 DEGREES OR SLIGHTLY WARMER.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF AS OF 8 PM MST.
540 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS SHIFTING EAST OF ARKANSAS TONIGHT AND ALLOWING SOUTH WINDS TO RETURN TO THE AREA.
950 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS.
250 PM PST SAT NOV 14 2015 AFTER DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
858 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015 MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS UNDER 10 MPH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S BY MORNING.
525 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015 ISSUED AT 203 PM SAT NOV 14 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING A BROAD/FLATTENED MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS INCLUDING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. QUIET/PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE REGION. THINGS CHANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND DEEPENING TROUGH DIGS IN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AN EMBEDDED WEAK TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE TROUGH TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
541 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEKEND BRINGING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WITH LESS WIND. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BLANKET THE REGION LATE TODAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT AS A SFC-850 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. TO THE UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO SLIP ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY MORNING THEN RIDGING IN THE AFTN. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTN WARMED UP 3 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN EXPECTED SO HAVE ADJUSTED SUNDAYS FCST AS WELL AND MODIFIED IT IN THE SAME MANNER. ALL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED AND THEREFORE THE DEEP ELY/ UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE FRONT RANGE THAT WAS INDICATED YESTERDAY IS ALL BUT GONE TODAY. BACK WASH MOISTURE MAY STILL PRODUCE AREAS OF OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS ON WED. MODELS SHOW A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH ACRS THE COUNTRY AND NWLY FLOW OVER THE FCST AREA. ENOUGH OF A REASON TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS FRI NIGHT.
513 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015 THE PACIFIC COAST AND EXITING CLOSED LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST CONUS. SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER THE LOWER 48. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTHERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER DURING THE EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1031 MILLIBARS) CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. TROUGHING IS MOVING OFF THE U.
603 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015 BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS WILL SHARPEN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. HIGHS WILL RISE TO THE LOWER TO MID FIFTIES. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE THIS WEEK EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONUS AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK FINE. THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A COUPLE OF LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT.
853 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015 COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
WEAK EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN U. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES IS BRINGING THE REGION NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO THICKEN TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS.
616 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015 COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
308 PM MST SAT NOV 14 2015 UNDER BROAD HIGH PRESSURE THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES. THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST TODAY.
/ISSUED 215 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND THEN BEGIN SHIFTING OFFSHORE TOMORROW. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER AND FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES (OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS) ARE NOT LIKELY.
846 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015 High pressure will continue to bring clear skies to central IL overnight although the high centered over Tennessee will be far enough southeast to allow for a steady light south wind of 5-10 mph. This will also keep temperatures up around 10 degrees warmer than Saturday's lows. Despite clear skies and a dry airmass characterized by surface dewpoints in the lower to middle 30s, southwesterly winds of 5 to 10 mph will keep overnight low temperatures several degrees warmer than last night. 12Z models continue to trend slower with onset of shower chances due to dry airmass in place over IL ahead of storm system, especially as lower levels and still have upper level ridge just east of IL Sunday night.
With high pressure over the area and good conditions for radiational cooling, temperatures have fallen quickly this evening, particularly in the notoriously colder locations. High pressure will slide slowly eastward tonight and there will be some return flow that looks to slow the temperature drop overnight, particularly along and west of Interstate 65. Temps in east-central KY should be just as cold Sunday morning as they were this morning, while very light return flow will keep western sections a few degrees warmer.
ANOTHER LONGWAVE 500 MB TROUGH WILL COME ASHORE OVER THE PACIFIC U.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE A MODERATE TO FRESH ONSHORE BREEZE.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S WEST TO THE MID 30S EAST. AFTER A RATHER COOL START, IT HAS BECOME A PLEASANT DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE THE REGION.
/issued 148 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015/ The approach and passage of a large upper trough will result in active weather across southeast New Mexico and west Texas the next few days.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS SUNDAY.
Conditions this evening are a little drier and cooler than most models had forecast this afternoon. Expect lows to range from the low 50s across the southeast Big Bend, down to around 40 degrees in southeast Alabama.
EXPECT SPOTTY POCKETS OF SUB FREEZING TEMPS MAINLY IN THE EAST TONIGHT. PERHAPS A BIT WARMER IN SOUTHEASTERN ND WHERE TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 40S AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY SUNRISE. BUT OVERALL AVAILABLE 00Z GUIDANCE APPEARS A BIT TOO COLD AND WILL KEEP MAJORITY OF THE REGION NEAR OR JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. BUT TEMPS MAY BE TRICKY AGAIN DUE TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WHICH ARE TRADITIONALLY COOLER WINDS.
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE EXCEPTIONALLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE COUPLED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN DRY TONIGHT WITH POPS INCREASING AS YOU HEAD SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA. /ISSUED 428 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015/ STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
654 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO SUNDAY WHEN AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST ALLOWING FOR RIDGING AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BUILD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES INLAND MODELS SPLIT IT AND TAKE THE UPPER LOW AND THE BULK OF THE ENERGY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF SYSTEMS.
613 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY AWAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NE ALONG THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO REACH AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 32 64 40 64 / 0 0 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 31 60 38 63 / 0 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 31 61 38 63 / 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 29 60 36 62 / 0 0 0 0 TN.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO SLIP ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY MORNING THEN RIDGING IN THE AFTN. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTN WARMED UP 3 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN EXPECTED TO HAVE ADJUSTED SUNDAYS FCST AS WELL AND MODIFIED IT IN THE SAME MANNER. ALL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED AND THEREFORE THE DEEP ELY/ UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE FRONT RANGE THAT WAS INDICATED YESTERDAY IS ALL BUT GONE TODAY. BACK WASH MOISTURE MAY STILL PRODUCE AREAS OF OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS ON WED. MODELS SHOW A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH ACRS THE COUNTRY AND NWLY FLOW OVER THE FCST AREA. ENOUGH OF A REASON TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS FRI NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES IS BRINGING THE REGION NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO THICKEN TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS.
649 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IS BRINGING CALM WINDS TO NORTHWESTERN MN AND THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. WITH SOME HIGH CLOUD AND DEW POINTS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. BUT TEMPS MAY BE TRICKY AGAIN DUE TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WHICH ARE TRADITIONALLY COOLER WINDS.
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER TX WILL FLATTEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A LOW AMPLITUDE POLAR TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES.
1134 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ONLY SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST AND RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS. 15 INCHES WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AS THE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW NOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA MOVES SOUTHWARD IT WILL ALLOW A DEEP FETCH OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH TROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTH INTO ARIZONA.
905 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER.
At the surface, a cold front was nearly stationary over the northwest quarter of the forecast area in northwest Missouri. A second area of convection is expected to develop around sunrise north of the cold front over northwest Missouri, generally NW STJ. A mixed storm mode is expected with an eventual evolution into a line along whatever serves as the effective cold front. Temperatures today will be strongly tied to morning convection and remnant cloud debris, as well as the position of the cold front.
1118 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 A COLD FRONT JUST OFF TO THE WEST WILL BE MOVING THIS WAY AND ENTERING THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS WELL TO SW OF REGION AS CNTL PLAINS FRONTAL WAVE UNDERGOES UPTICK IN CYCLOGENESIS AFFORDED BY INTENSE/PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROF AS IT MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY BY EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OK. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE ALONG THIS COLD FRONT FROM NEAR WWR TO PNC AND THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD OVER MOST OF THE OTHER TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT.
AND WITH THE RIDGING AND DRY AIR. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY AND SUBSIDENCE DUE TO RIDGING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S INLAND AREAS AND UPPER 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST (MID 80S AT THE BEACHES). LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S OVER MOST INLAND AREAS TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST.
1000 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
/ISSUED / LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF TEXAS. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN STRONGER WESTERLIES COMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM GREAT LAKES SWWD TO THE TAXAS PANHANDLE. TODAY UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD KEEP THINGS MOSTLY SUNNY AND RAIN FREE.
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ALIGNED FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.
More surface-based showers and thunderstorms are expected later this afternoon and evening across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as thunderstorms develop along a cold front across southeast Kansas and western Oklahoma and move into the region. The cold front is expected to be near the I-44 corridor in northeast Oklahoma by 00z Saturday.
804 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TODAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND COULD SET OFF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS.
GENERALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
High pressure ridging is bringing dry and mild weather to the area today.
627 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015 FOR 12Z TAFS /ISSUED 305 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015/ UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST, EXTENDING NORTHEAST OVER THE APPALACHIANS STATES. HOWEVER, AN UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY ROTATING JUST OFF THE GA COASTLINE BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINA/GA/FL COASTLINES. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE SFC COLD FRONT, THAT WILL AFFECT THE TN VALLEY LATER THIS WEEKEND, IS LOCATED. BY SATURDAY, THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SIGNALED BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST SATURDAY AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST. MODELS INDICATE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES.
1031 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY.
642 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015 This morning is starting out rather warm and muggy across the region, with temperatures in the low to mid 70s as of 2 AM. Readings likely won't fall much more through sunrise, with a persistent south to southeast breeze keeping the lower atmosphere fairly well mixed this morning. The main focus for today will be on an approaching cold front, currently aligned from the western Great Lakes to the Texas Panhandle. A few of the high resolution models are attempting to develop convection along outflow further southeast into the CWA by early to mid afternoon, though right now we do expect the bulk of the activity to remain tied to the cold front. Temperatures on Saturday look to be rather cool, with highs in the low to perhaps mid 70s.
940 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015 MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER RIDGE IS PARKED OVER TX WITH E/NE FLOW WHILE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE ERN GULF. WE CAN EXPECT A DRY AND WARMER AFTERNOON TODAY. ADJUSTED HIGHS UP JUST A TOUCH DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. /ISSUED 418 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015/ THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE ARKLAMISS WEATHER AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN HOT AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS. AN IMPRESSIVELY WARM LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WITH H850 TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REACH ~ 20 DEG C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING WELL INTO THE 90S FOR SATURDAY.
NOTED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT NEAR 3500 FT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SFC AND ALOFT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS TX AND LA THIS MORNING WHILE AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
5 INCHES TODAY FALL CLOSER TO 1 INCH ON SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD OF SOUTH TEXAS WEATHER. WITH A DEGREE OR SO COOLER ON SATURDAY GIVEN LESS MOISTURE AND BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT AND A TAD COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER ON SATURDAY.
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 A COLD FRONT JUST OFF TO THE WEST WILL BE MOVING THIS WAY AND ENTERING THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS WELL TO SW OF REGION AS CNTL PLAINS FRONTAL WAVE UNDERGOES UPTICK IN CYCLOGENESIS AFFORDED BY INTENSE/PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROF AS IT MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY BY EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
946 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015 HAVE UPDATED GRIDS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND RESULTANT COOLER START TO THE DAY FOR A FEW SPOTS WHICH WILL BE ENDING SOON ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS BUILDS EASTWARD AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROF. THE SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA SATURDAY NIGHT.
IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS TROUGH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL NEARLY STATEWIDE IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY/LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT.
845 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ONLY SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
/ISSUED 349 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015/ LARGE BULK OF TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER EAST COAST TROUGH. THIS WILL HELP SHARPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE COMING DAYS.
722 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ONLY SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL THEN PREVAIL TODAY ALTERNATING WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS NEXT TROUGH DOES NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND TRACKS FURTHER NORTH. DESPITE THE ALTERNATING SHORT WAVE RIDGES/TROUGHS. ZONAL FLOW RETURNS FOR SAT NIGHT RESULTING IN LEE-SIDE TROUGHING.
936 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 WARM DRY WEATHER, WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY, COURTESY OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, COVERING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING, LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
1028 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015 UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS TO REINFORCE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
ENJOY ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY! CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 86 63 86 64 / 0 0 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 85 61 84 63 / 0 0 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 84 61 84 64 / 0 0 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 82 55 81 58 / 0 0 10 10.
OTHERWISE A THERMAL TROUGH SETTING UP ALONG THE COAST IS DRIVING A STRONG NORTHERLY WIND IN CURRY COUNTY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY TODAY AS A THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS ALONG THE COAST.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SFC AND ALOFT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS TX AND LA THIS MORNING WHILE AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
1118 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
1118 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TODAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND COULD SET OFF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS.
1243 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 A COLD FRONT JUST OFF TO THE WEST WILL BE MOVING THIS WAY AND ENTERING THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS WELL TO SW OF REGION AS CNTL PLAINS FRONTAL WAVE UNDERGOES UPTICK IN CYCLOGENESIS AFFORDED BY INTENSE/PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROF AS IT MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY BY EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AL. ALTHOUGH THE CONVERGENCE IS WEAK WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS 850 TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM MUCH WARMER (16 TO 18 DEGREES CELSIUS).
650 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015 /12Z TAFS/ UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN COMMAND OVER NORTH TEXAS FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. /ISSUED 311 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015/ AN UPPER TROUGH. WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND AID IN FLATTENING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE STATE. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED SW-NE ACROSS KANSAS.