Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper trough, which is over Washington and extends offshore, will gradually shift further inland through Wednesday. Moisture residing within a southwest flow aloft ahead of the trough will lead to an increasing chance for showers across Southwest Idaho through Wednesday, while drier air will lead to only a slight chance of showers in Southeast Oregon by Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Pacific upper low along WA/OR coast.
/issued 345 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016/ An upper level ridge axis over the area this afternoon will shift slightly east Wednesday. Wednesday highs should be similar to today, perhaps a degree or two lower with a bit more high clouds and slightly lower upper highs and layer thickness.
/issued 641 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016/ VFR conditions to prevail through the terminal forecast period due to upper-level ridging aloft. Stg ridge ovhd will combine with drier low lvls to produce mostly clear skies next few days. Although the ridge intensity may gradually weaken later in the week, its ovhd position will remain unchanged. Meanwhile, a deep longwave trough with associated upper low over AZ will likely separate later in the week, with the trof movg east across upper midwest, leaving the upper low spinning over the sw, with upper lvl winds approaching 100 kts on both the lee side and the back side of the low.
maybe a bit warmer across southern areas by a 2 to 4 degrees. /issued 357 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016/ Another hot day as temperatures have climbed into the low to mid 90s under mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will begin to cool this evening as the dew points have fallen into the upper 60s to lower 70s as high pressure at sfc has built into the region from the northeast. This area of high pressure is expected to remain in place through the rest of the week.
715 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2016 High pressure and no change in airmass will keep temperatures above normal through the end of the work week.
1151 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016 Expect dry conditions tonight and tomorrow as weak front that is currently over the northern CWA will lift northward this evening as warm front. Upper ridge will remain over the Midwest keeping subsidence over the CWA. Britt Unseasonably warm conditions will continue due to upper level ridging over the area and persistent southerly surface winds.
Cloud cover from any convection will decrease past midnight, with skies becoming mostly clear to partly cloudy and temperatures falling into the low to mid 70s. Weak sfc trof over central FL will allow winds to shift to the N/NW north of Cape Canaveral.
Drier air aloft rotated into the area today around upper low over SC. Expect low clouds and fog to develop later night as low level moisture pools along weak cold frontal boundary across ne Fl. Winds will be from the ne around 10 knots with seas 1-3 feet behind weak cold front pushing south across the waters tonight.
1257 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2016 High pressure will dominate our weather for the next several days, with dry conditions, and above normal temperatures for late September. Upr ptrn over the CONUS shows a lrg, flat rdg stretching from TX to the east cst, a deep trof in the west, and a zonal flow running along the nrn tier of the country. By Fri, models do show a broad and shallow trof trying to dvlp over the lakes and a sfc fnt trying to sag south.
1106 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016 We will remain on the dry side of a large upper ridge this week.
602 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016 The warm weather conditions will persist across our region under the influence of an upper level ridge of high pressure over the southern and central plains.
1138 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016 An upper level ridge along with a hot and humid air mass is currently over the region. Temperatures this afternoon are currently in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. Lows tonight will cool into the low to middle 60s across south central Missouri to around the 70 degree mark across southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri. Lows in the lower 60s combined with temperatures falling into the lower to middle 60s will result in the potential for some patchy fog tonight. The upper level ridge will remain over the region through the end of the week resulting in the unseasonably hot and humid conditions continuing.
The upper level low over western Canada has dropped into northwest Washington today and will settle over western Oregon on Wednesday.
The PAH forecast area will remain under the influence of an axis of high surface pressure and an expansive mid level ridge through the short term period, meaning dry and unseasonably warm conditions will continue into the beginnings of fall.
611 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016 Expect dry conditions tonight and tomorrow as weak front that is currently over the northern CWA will lift northward this evening as warm front. Upper ridge will remain over the Midwest keeping subsidence over the CWA. Britt Unseasonably warm conditions will continue due to upper level ridging over the area and persistent southerly surface winds.
623 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016 Upper ridge responsible for this afternoon's anomalously warm mid- September temperatures will flatten a bit on Wednesday, yielding temperatures about 2 to 3 degrees cooler for Weds afternoon.
(Issued 850 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016) Upper ridge building over the region will keep skies mostly clr overnight allowing temps to fall into the lower 60s. For 06Z TAFs: With an upper ridge over the midwest and an upper low along the SC coast, drier air was moving across the area as shown on the wv stlt.
VFR conditions continue for the area as high pressure continues to suppress convective activity.
729 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather for the rest of the week. High pressure over the region will provide another clear night with fog development expected again early morning with strong radiational cooling. Minimal change to the long wave pattern is progged through midweek with flat ridging dominating the Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Regions.
but did not add precipitation over the lower elevations and valleys at this time due to the extremely dry boundary layer. Flow is beginning to back from zonal to southwesterly as upstream positively tilted trough deepens along the Pacific Coast. Meanwhile, a weak sfc cold front will slide into the area Wednesday and with a thicker cloud canopy, afternoon highs will be 5-10 degrees cooler west and 10-20 degrees cooler east.
1033 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016 We will remain on the dry side of a large upper ridge this week.
857 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather for the rest of the week. High pressure over the region will provide another clear night with fog development expected again early morning with strong radiational cooling. Minimal change to the long wave pattern is progged through midweek with flat ridging dominating the Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Regions.
/issued 154 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016/ 12Z UA charts show that a mid level anticyclone was centered btwn MAF and OUN favoring a SE 7h-5h wind and thus a little cooler in the mid levels. By Wed the presence of the mid level ridge will be less and SW mid level flow will edge into the far wrn CWFA and a few -SHRA/-TSRA may strafe the GDP Mtns/W Eddy Co. Concurrently an upper low INVOF the Great Basin will move into the interior Rocky Mtns and a mid level moist axis will edge back to the e. As the low/trof deepen and move e an attendant slow moving Pacific front will also move e.
1020 PM MDT Tue Sep 20 2016 Water vapor shows deep upper trof working onshore the pac nw with broad wsw flow extending through the nrn plains. broad low pressure covers the cntrl plains/cntrl rockies region with nearly stationary frontal boundary extending from ern Wy through nrn NEB. Chances for pcpn will begin to increase as upper low digs into the Great Basin and flow aloft turns more swly.
710 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016 We will remain on the dry eastern flanks of a massive 500 mb ridge most of the coming week. As the northern part of the ridge breaks down, northwesterly flow should push a backdoor front and trough into our region this weekend. We should end up on the northwest flow side of this strong trough.
1210 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2016 A cold front will move through tonight bringing drier and cooler air with it. Even cooler air is expected for the first full weekend of Autumn as Canadian high pressure builds in. The short term begins with a dry cold frontal passage for the region late Wed ngt and erly Thu morn, followed up by shwrs and even steady ovrrng rnfl for Thu ngt and Fri with another s/wv and cold front from Cntrl Can, aft a fair and cooler day Thu. Depending on how long rnfl lasts into the day Fri, hi temps Fri may be even cooler than Thu, with lower trrn Nrn lctns perhaps struggling to get into the lower 50s.
Otherwise, a mostly clear and quiet overnight is in store with low temperatures falling into the lower to middle 70s.
1134 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016 Upper ridge responsible for this afternoon's anomalously warm mid- September temperatures will flatten a bit on Wednesday, yielding temperatures about 2 to 3 degrees cooler for Weds afternoon.
932 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2016 High pressure and no change in airmass will keep temperatures above normal through the end of the work week.
Water vapor imagery and 500 mb height field shows the closed upper low pressure center continuing to lift through southeastern Saskatchewan.
152 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2016 An area of low pressure will drift westward along the Gulf Coast over the next few days allowing Bermuda high pressure to become more dominate in the forecast area.
Isolated to scattered convection continues to develop and move across the higher terrain. Dry and warm conditions will persist through the weekend as a ridge of high pressure builds into the area.
The highest PWAT values are now along and south of the I-90 corridor, which has our best risk of excessive rainfall tonight. Some of the higher PWAT values will sneak into southern MN which aligns well with the QPF along the I-90 corridor. For Friday the main change has been to slow down the arrival of the actual cold front. The period begins with the forecast area transitioning to the backside of a cold front.
The boundary extends back toward KFSD where convection is already developing ahead of a short wave trough coming across Nebraska. 18Z RAP continue to move this short wave trough across southern Minnesota and northern Iowa through the night. Plenty of thermodynamic forcing in the low levels as well with 4 ubar/s or more of isentropic up glide on the 310K surface. The focus will continue to be near the boundary and not expecting this to move much through this evening which should focus the showers and storms along and south of the Interstate 90 corridor and have focused the highest rain chances in this area. 12Z models of this low moving slowly east and not reaching western Illinois until late in the afternoon or possibly even Friday evening.
118 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2016 Ridge of high pressure continues to dominate terminal weather.
Excessive heat conditions are likely to impact portions of the lower Susquehanna Valley through the upcoming weekend. Dewpoints quite high, and temperatures have quickly climb into the lower 90s in spots so far, with several more hours of heating to go. We extended the heat advy for the Lower Susq Valley through Friday and added an excessive heat watch for the weekend.
The general pattern features an upper level trough centered across central Canada leaving northern Michigan in a fairly moist southwest flow. Impulses moving through the flow along with a surface cold front progressing across the region Friday morning should theoretically lead to increasing chances for showers and storms. Highs Friday ranging from the upper 70s to the middle 80s with humidity remaining on the high side.
S including the SGF CWA was in a broad southwesterly flow aloft ahead of a deep trough across western U. Main upper level jet was on the eastern side of the trough from the central Rockies into the northern Plains with a fairly stout low level jet across the Plains into the upper Mississippi valley region. For today, as per current observations which were about 1 to 5 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time, we are expecting slightly warmer temperatures and hotter heat index values. With the high PW values and slow storm movements, brief heavy rainfall over isolated locations will be possible.
Light east to southeast flow will overspread the region as surface ridging nudges back into the Florida peninsula from the Atlantic. High pressure will continue to build in across the Gulf waters into the weekend with southeasterly flow.
With dewpoint values in the low-to mid 70s, could see some heavy rain producers.
Precipitation chances look to be limited today into Friday as mid level ridging takes place north of the tropical low over the northern Gulf states.
Low pressure in the vicinity of the south Mississippi and Louisiana border will advance very slowly west over the next several days.
136 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2016 High pressure will remain to the east through the week.
The mid to upper level ridge will persist over the region through the period. But the low level thermal profile should be similar to today such that high temperatures will be near to a degree above on Friday.
A mid level low pressure system was just off MS/AL Gulf Coast, and the associated low pressure was over southern Mississippi.
There will be an increasing chance for showers and storms from the southwest tonight, mainly after midnight as low pressure approaches the area.
A warming trend is expected as high pressure builds over the west. Synoptic pattern shows high pressure building Friday so expect a modest warming trend with the marine layer compressing to around 1000 feet or so.
All of this is in association with a persistent low pressure system present across the northern Gulf. More rain/better coverage is expected over the next couple of days as this low tracks to the west.
The low pressure area splayed across the northern Gulf coast has drifted far enough west, particularly based on yesterday's convective trends, that I feel comfortable going a bit higher in the far east - though not yet as high as those eastern neighbors. Lowering heights/pressures as an inverted trough takes shape over the state this weekend.
High pressure locked off the eastern seaboard will help draw moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the Ohio Valley.
High pressure will continue to to dominate the weather through the period with VFR conditions expected. Southeast winds will increase, with gusts in the lower 20 knots during the afternoon. /issued 404 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): Before the daytime heating really gets going this morning, there is a threat for a brief shower or two for the lower valley this morning, as a few streamer showers noted on radar try to move ashore near KBRO. The H5 ridge remains dominant across the south.
146 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2016 Aviation A slow moving cold front will push southeastward through the Great Lakes region over the next couple of days.
A upper level ridge will build over the great basin over the next several days.
Temperatures overnight tonight will remain mild given the steadily thickening cloud cover and dew points remaining in the lower 70s, so temps should only fall into the lower 70s to middle 70s closer to Lake Michigan. Then for Friday the thick cloud cover will hold temperatures mainly in the lower/middle 80s.
High pressure remains the dominating force though the short term period and well above normal temperatures and rain free weather will continue. The low will remain too far to the north at his time to have any rainfall effects.
The low level flow will increase to 25-30 knots during the overnight hours but there will be an intrusion of drier air at the low levels. Dewpoint temperatures are slightly higher with readings in the lower 80s over the coastal counties. The low level thermal profile is slightly warmer than yesterday.
The models are in general agreement with the upper level ridge keeping its grip over the forecast area during the majority of the forecast period.
329 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2016 A cold front will stall in the Down East region this evening. Low pressure will track eastward along the stalled boundary on Friday.
Gradually Lowering Rain Chances Through the Weekend, Outside of the diurnal sea breeze circulation, winds remain relatively light as the area remains sandwiched between a broad mid to upper level low over the central Gulf Coast and high pressure to our north and east. High pressure centered to our north and east should begin to exert more influence on the local low-level flow pattern, increasing SE flow over the Atlantic waters to around 10 knots. Deep layer east-southeast flow will exist across the area with west Atlantic ridge extending north of the region. Subtropical ridge axis will remain north of the east central Florida waters through the period.
At 19 UTC visible satellite data and surface observations showed that the low pressure area had made it in to far SE Mississippi.
611 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2016 An area of low pressure will drift westward along the Gulf Coast over the next few days allowing Bermuda high pressure to become more dominate in the forecast area.
Showers in southern Saskatchewan closer to the upper low, and will see how far south they develop. Dry high pressure centered over western Montana should be pushing into ND today. With the upper low over south central Canada in place today giving ND cyclonic flow aloft, will add mention of slight chance of showers/thundershowers in the northern counties this afternoon.
NW flow continues through the TAF cycle on the backside of an upper level low over south-central Canada. There will be enough moisture/instability for isolated SHRA/TSRA to develop this afternoon, but coverage looks to stay on the lower side.
Expect that activity to weaken with redevelopment likely during the afternoon as a cold front drops south into the area. Temperatures will be slightly cooler tomorrow with clouds and precipitation in the area, but humdity will remain.
307 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016 Main forecast concern for the next 24 hours will be the cold front to push through tonight into Fri morning. The convection is expected to slowly propagate to the S-SE late tonight or early Fri morning, as a cold front pushes south across the forecast area.
On Friday, the cooler airmass will remain in place with gradually increasing moisture. High temperatures are expected to only be in the lower 80s.
There remains a pocket of slightly cooler temps in our SW counties from cloud cover this morning. An upper level ridge that is currently residing across the southeastern U. Upper level wise the period begins with 595 upper level high parked off the VA/NC coast line. A more broad upper level trough axis will be setup across the central plains. This pattern looks to remain in place and this aforementioned high becomes more of blocking high.
Temperatures look to remain seasonable with highs in the low to mid 90s, and lows in the mid 70s inland, with upper 70s to near 80 degrees along the coast. The models are in agreement with the upper high along the Carolina coast and the upper low that has been impacting the area over Louisiana.
High pressure ridge cutting across the middle of the CWA continues to dominate weather for the near term. Guidance over the last day has been persistent in wanting to shift this ridge axis further south and return to more south to southwesterly flow within 24 hours of initializing. However this has not been the case as the ridge has continued to nose further westward into Middle TN.
250 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016 Scattered showers continue to spiral their way around the low pressure system just to our southwest. Looks like a repeat performance on Friday as the low remains locked in its position, with the best coverage across the south.
High pressure will build East of the region this period.
304 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016 Western extent of the upper level high pressure across the southeastern CONUS will get shunted eastward thanks to a respectable August trough axis making its way across the country. Early this afternoon, the trough was situated from the lakes of Manitoba into the Great Basin. A cold front should approach our northern zones by mid-day.
Many locations are 1-3F warmer than yesterday, so anticipate slightly hotter temperatures than yesterday. Later this afternoon, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Texas panhandle as a a mid-level/500 mb trough axis approaches from the west. These showers and storms could impact northwest Oklahoma late afternoon into the evening and should help propagate the effective cold front into Oklahoma tonight. Outside of northwest Oklahoma, isolated storms could develop almost anywhere, but expected coverage/confidence is much lower than yesterday because of warmer mid-level temperatures and the lack of mesoscale ascent.
On Friday, the majority of the CWA will see dry conditions with mostly sunny skies and temperatures slightly cooler due to the passage of the trough on Thursday. Expect some isolated to scattered storms in the afternoon over the high terrain of western Colorado, favoring the San Juans and some central mountains along the divide.
302 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2016 Currently - A broad lower level ridge extends southwestward across the Florida Peninsula into the southeastern gulf of mexico, while a weak inverted trough rides westward across the Florida Keys area and surrounding waters. Short Term Update - The weak inverted trough will continue to move westward into the Gulf of Mexico tonight. While there is currently no related convective activity, the presence of the trough justifies holding somewhat higher than normal pops. The ridge to our north will consolidate and steadily lift northward through Central and North Florida into the extreme southeastern United States. Mostly east winds will trend upwards over the next day or two as a ridge to our north lifts northwards into North Florida.
414 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2016 An area of low pressure will drift westward along the Gulf Coast over the next few days allowing Bermuda high pressure to become more dominate in the forecast area.
Right behind this system a large area of high pressure developing across the western U.
A combination of temperatures in the low 100s with dew points in the low to mid-70s is resulting in dangerous heat index values this afternoon. Many locations are 1-3F warmer than yesterday, so anticipate slightly hotter temperatures than yesterday. Later this afternoon, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Texas panhandle as a a mid-level/500 mb trough axis approaches from the west. These showers and storms could impact northwest Oklahoma late afternoon into the evening and should help propagate the effective cold front into Oklahoma tonight. Outside of northwest Oklahoma, isolated storms could develop almost anywhere, but expected coverage/confidence is much lower than yesterday because of warmer mid-level temperatures and the lack of mesoscale ascent.
306 PM MDT THU AUG 11 2016 Water vapor imagery shows an upper low crossing cntrl Canada with the main trough axis across wrn ND into se MT and wrn WY. Latest RAP showing MLCape of 500- 1500 J/kg with the highest values near the SD/Neb border. The main trough axis will slide across the area Friday into Friday night, with additional chances for showers and storms.
1248 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016 Quite an active pattern in the short term as a positively-tilted upper trough deepens across the Northern Rockies through the early morning Thursday. This feature will present the next chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms late tonight as a cold front will cross into northwest Missouri after midnight. With precipitable water amounts remaining just over two inches Thursday afternoon, additional isolated storms are possible throughout central Missouri within a broad area of warm air advection ahead of the approaching cold front.