Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
620 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2020 The Aviation section has been updated High pressure is expected across the area through Monday. High pressure will build back into the area by the later parts of the week. Surface observations have indicated wind gusts peaking out in the low to mid 30 kt range over the past couple of hours. Otherwise, expecting dry conditions through Monday, as an upper ridge drifts through the local area. Upper ridging will slowly drift off to the east, while a rather deep upper trough moves into the southern High Plains by the end of the period.
347 PM CST Sun Feb 2 2020 The cold front currently draped along the Iowa-Minnesota border will continue to slowly slide southward into the northern CWA through the overnight hours. Expect stratus to overspread the bi-state area from the south and along the stalled cold front. A mid level disturbance will move northeast out of the southern plains along the cold front Monday afternoon and is likely to force some light precipitation Monday afternoon and evening. High temperatures on Monday to the north of the front in northeastern Missouri and west-central Illinois will be slightly cooler than today, peaking in the upper 40s to mid 50s. To the south of the stalled cold front temperatures will warm up once again into the low to mid 60s, though not as much as Sunday due to the increased cloud cover.
355 PM CST Sun Feb 2 2020 Cold front pushed south of the area early this afternoon, and now starting to lose the struggle to hold the mild temperatures, especially with the band of thick cirrus centered near I-90 cutting down on an otherwise weak sun angle.
602 PM CST Sun Feb 2 2020 Even with the passage of the weak cold front today, temperatures have remained mild. As of mid afternoon, most sites still remained in the low to mid 30s. Looking ahead into tonight, more clearing is expected along and north of the highway 2 corridor, with more clouds to the south of it. Therefore, cooler lows tonight will be along the Canadian border, with warmer lows along the North and South Dakota border. Wind speeds and the cooler air moving in tonight should keep the fog at bay.
/issued 258 PM CST Sun Feb 2 2020/ We will end the afternoon on a warmer note thanks to southwesterly surface winds and upper ridging. The upper low currently pushing into the Pacific Northwest will amplify and dig southeastward tomorrow. Winds will be breezy tomorrow afternoon ahead of a southward moving cold front.
Chances of a wintry mix of light snow and freezing drizzle will gradually come to an end across the Arrowhead region this afternoon as the corridor of convergence along the speed maximum aloft shifts eastward. For tonight, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies across the area, with some colder air gradually filtering in as a large area of high pressure builds across the Canadian Prairies. Overnight lows will fall into the lower teens north to the upper teens and lower 20s south. The cold air advection will continue through the day Monday, but dry conditions are expected to remain as the high pressure approaches the region. High temperatures will return to near normal, in the middle teens north to the lower to middle 20s south.
A cold front currently extending from southern Lake Michigan to central Iowa will settle southward tonight.
Cool air advection in the lower troposphere continued over the Keys evidenced by slight backing in the winds above the surface and persistent boughts of stratocumulus from Key West westward. Temperatures were in the lower 60s throughout with dewpoints in the lower 50s. High pressure is expected to continue its quick eastward progression into the eastern Gulf by morning. High pressure moving east into the eastern Gulf overnight and across the Florida Peninsula Monday will turn the northerly winds toward northeast to east by Monday night.
Northwest winds early will decrease to light and variable overnight as the high slides over the state with continued minimal cloudiness. This will allow for cooler than normal lows across the forecast area, mostly in the low/mid 40s north/interior and upper 40s/around 50 south/coastal. Seasonal temps expected Monday with afternoon highs generally in the low/mid 70s under mostly clear skies and generally light winds.
Widespread high winds will develop this evening and overnight as a fast moving cold front sweeps across the region.
1130 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2020 The Aviation section has been updated High pressure is expected across the area through Monday. High pressure will build back into the area by the later parts of the week. Surface observations have indicated wind gusts peaking out in the low to mid 30 kt range over the past couple of hours. Otherwise, expecting dry conditions through Monday, as an upper ridge drifts through the local area. Upper ridging will slowly drift off to the east, while a rather deep upper trough moves into the southern High Plains by the end of the period.
1031 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2020 High pressure will result in dry conditions and unseasonable warm temperatures on Monday.
Not much change to the ongoing forecast with clear skies and high pressure forecast overnight.
Cold front moves into NE OK by late afternoon but likely does not push into terminals further southeast before the end of the fcst period. Cold front still poised to move through Monday night into Tuesday, with the highest rain chances ahead of the boundary expected across SE OK and NW AR.
359 AM EST Mon Feb 3 2020 High pressure ridge over the area will keep things dry for another day. This ridge will break down fairly fast allowing next frontal system into the area later this week. With mostly sunny conditions today and warm southwesterly flow, temps expected to get up into the lower to middle 70s across North and Central GA. The ridge keeping things dry today is currently centered over the central Gulf. Over the next 24 hours this ridge will move eastward across central FL becoming centered just off the eastern FL coast.
/issued 258 PM CST Sun Feb 2 2020/ We will end the afternoon on a warmer note thanks to southwesterly surface winds and upper ridging. The upper low currently pushing into the Pacific Northwest will amplify and dig southeastward tomorrow. Winds will be breezy tomorrow afternoon ahead of a southward moving cold front. The upper trough axis will just be over the Four Corners region by 18Z with precip beginning to develop across eastern NM. Precip is expected to expand eastward through the afternoon as the upper trough progresses eastward. How much snowfall will occur depends on the overall amount of lift and how long it takes the upper trough to move across the FA.
At the surface, high pressure currently centered over the northeastern gulf of Mexico has allowed southerly flow to advect increasing low level moisture across the area with dewpoints presently ranging from the upper 40's to mid 50's. With the high clouds likely to serve as a limiting factor, the fog is not expected to be widespread enough to warrant an advisory, but this will continue to be monitored overnight. This will mean a longer spring and a shorter summer? Well skies cleared this morning after the morning fog and temperatures managed to climb into the low to mid 70s on southerly winds. Clouds spreading in during the morning hours with scattered showers moving into southeast Texas around the noon hour then slowly spreading into Louisiana as a cold front currently in the upper plain states drops south.
1220 AM EST Mon Feb 3 2020 High pressure and dry conditions will persist over the region through early Tuesday.
235 AM EST Mon Feb 3 2020 A weak disturbance crosses the area today with a few clouds along with scattered snow showers across the higher terrain. A weak ridge of high pressure will cross the region tonight. another unseasonably mild day and partly sunny with highs ranging from the 30s across the mountains to the lower and mid 40s elsewhere. A ridge of high pressure builds into the region tonight, with some lingering low clouds across the higher terrain otherwise a mainly clear night.
(Today through Tuesday) Again this morning I adjusted the current overnight grids as stronger winds have kept enough mixing of the low-levels to prevent temperatures from falling much. Another warm day is expected today, but will not be quite as warm as yesterday, especially in the north with the cold front moving through, but even in the south with increasing clouds. The cold front continues to move southeast tonight, although still rather slowly as surface cyclogenesis develops in eastern New Mexico or the southwestern Texas panhandle in response to the approaching wave. Temperatures will drop down below freezing across northern and western Oklahoma.
High pressure will continue to slide eastward into the Atlantic for the short term. This combined with the upper level ridge shifting eastward will allow for deep layer southerly flow and as a result will see our temperatures and dew points climb for the short term.
High pressure, with warm advection, will result in temperatures around 20 degrees above normal across the region today, with continued dry conditions. Eastern CONUS ridge will allow for strong southwesterly flow to tonight and Tuesday.
Cold front still poised to move through Monday night into Tuesday, with the highest rain chances ahead of the boundary expected across SE OK and NW AR.
1119 PM CST Sun Feb 2 2020 Main weather related concerns/potential impacts for this forecast will be associated with a wavy sharp cold front that will slowly move through the area late Monday through early Tuesday then stall to our south (briefly).
Tonight and Monday: An unseasonably warm air mass present over the mid MO Valley this afternoon will be displaced by notably cooler air behind a cold front which will move through the area tonight. Within that regime, forecast soundings indicate saturation in the 900-800-mb layer, bracketed by sub-freezing surface temperatures and a warm (and dry) nose aloft. That thermodynamic stratification will support the potential for patchy freezing drizzle from Monday morning into afternoon, generally along and south of I-80.
Surface analysis depicts high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and dominating our region. High temps will remain slightly below normal in the lower 70s today, then rebound into the upper 70s Tuesday as the low level flow veers to the SE.
Large scale ridging has built up from the south. Yet at the surface the region is under a trough associated with a weak frontal system to the north. This puts the area in the warm sector south of a warm front. The ridge will shift east and the upper flow will become more southwesterly. Despite the weak cold front, temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the mid 40s to low 50s.
1258 AM EST Mon Feb 3 2020 High pressure will keep the conditions VFR and the weather quiet through the TAF period.
A deepening, positively tilted upper level trough will approach the mid south during the second half of this period. A cold front will approach the state early Tuesday, and will provide a focus for additional convective development.
305 AM EST Mon Feb 3 2020 High pressure over the area is forecast to dominate the weather through at least Tuesday morning.
/Tonight/ The evening RGB satellite imagery indicates the extensive cirrus shield continues to increase across the region, associated with the Pacific moisture fetch ahead of the closed low just SW of the Baja coast. Otherwise, only minimal changes needed elsewhere, with the mid level isentropic ascent beginning to increase by mid to late morning Monday, which may result in a few sprinkles before the low level air mass is able to saturate from the top down and through the strong low level moisture advection regime, allowing for sct -SHRA to increase for the afternoon across NE TX/SE OK/SW AR/NW LA.
High pressure centered over the Florida peninsula will drift eastward into the Atlantic today. As the high continues to move eastward, southerly flow begins to develop across the area. This will help to keep overnight lows noticeably warmer than this morning and near average, in the upper 40s to low 50s. By Fri morning, linear convection ascd with approach and passage of a cold front will keep rain chcs lingering into the first half of Fri, then clearing later Fri as cooler and dryer air moves into the region.
258 AM EST Mon Feb 3 2020 A mid/upper level ridge axis will be crossing the area this morning, followed by a deep SW flow this afternoon that will provide mild temperatures. On the back side of the ridge, we will have increasing high clouds through the afternoon.
With high pressure building over the region, clear skies and calm winds prevail and will allow for radiational cooling overnight. Lows overnight will dip into the low 40s to upper 30s with locally cooler places possible. Highs tomorrow will rise above normal into the low to mid 70s. Deep layer ridging centered over the area on Monday will move off the eastern seaboard Monday night and into the Atlantic on Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper trough begins to dig over the 4-corners region. Strengthening deep layer south-southwesterly flow will increase low level moisture and keep warmer conditions throughout the region. Highs on Tuesday will be in the low to mid 70s.
220 AM EST Mon Feb 3 2020 High pressure to our south will nose in today and make it dry.
Water vapor loop showed very dry air over Florida with an upper level low digging into the Southwest U.
1246 AM EST Mon Feb 3 2020 High pressure will result in dry conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures on Monday.
GAH AFTERNOON UPDATE: Area of colder high pressure now moving into Montana from the north will continue to slowly push the scattered snow showers further south through the state tonight and through the overnight hours.
1111 PM CST Sun Feb 2 2020 Cold front pushed south of the area early this afternoon, and now starting to lose the struggle to hold the mild temperatures, especially with the band of thick cirrus centered near I-90 cutting down on an otherwise weak sun angle. Perhaps a small window on Monday night or early Tuesday to get a small area of legitimate light snowfall near the Missouri River, but the race is on as the baroclinicity shifts southward out of the area and drying flow persists with the ridge to the north. Trend has been to push any meaningful lift with the mid-level trough axis well southward.
342 AM EST Mon Feb 3 2020 High pressure will prevail through Tuesday, then weaken during mid week.
1134 PM CST Sun Feb 2 2020 After a pleasant day for early February standards, marked by near record highs, cooler air is beginning to work in slowly. Readings this afternoon remain in the upper 30s across western MN to the low to mid 40s across eastern MN and western WI but they will drop into the upper teens to mid 20s late tonight and likely fail to reach 30 on Monday. As the mid level ridge continues to build, the mid-high level stratus to the south will lift north making for mostly cloudy skies tonight and Monday.
259 AM CST Mon Feb 3 2020 Lower clouds have been developing in the northern part of the forecast area and the higher clouds continue across the south. With the lower clouds and the warm air moving up over the colder air at the surface, there could be some freezing drizzle. Have kept the freezing drizzle in, but feel that the period for freezing drizzle might be shrinking. The trend is a little further to the south, so some of the northern counties may have little to no freezing drizzle, but the southern end might get a little more. The freezing drizzle is over around noon time and there will be a break this afternoon.
Winds will stay northerly during the overnight hours and pick up a bit as a low pressure system passing to the south tightens the pressure gradient. A ridge of high pressure will then build into the area on Tuesday, keeping the region dry. The high will cause winds to east a bit from tonight as they back to the northwest during the afternoon hours.
241 AM MST Mon Feb 3 2020 Water vapor imagery shows the upper trough now crossing the Great Basin, with strong forcing aloft across Wyoming and just into far western South Dakota. The cold front has pushed well south of the CWA, with temperatures dropping into the upper teens to upper 20s. High pressure is building into central Canada into North Dakota. Strong upper ridging will build across the western CONUS, with northwest flow across the northern Great Plains. A cold front sliding across the region will bring MVFR/IFR CIGS during the rest of the night through Monday morning.
An impressive plume of Pacific moisture is slated to ride up and over a closed high pressure circulation off the coast of northern California.
910 AM EST Mon Feb 3 2020 High pressure remains over the area producing clear skies this morning. The low temperatures this morning ranged from the mid 30's up north along the Nature Coast and mid 40's to low 50's from Tampa Bay southward.
As a result the highs for the day area in an going forward some very light drizzle could occur but the depth of a saturated level is not impressive, and impacts should be relatively limited and focused to the far north. Positively tilted upper trough to move through the region though mid week, with best forcing digging far south across west Texas late Tuesday. Models would continue to depict the highest precipitation/snow potential across the west central Kansas counties with very little farther south near Oklahoma.
A linear jet streak will depart the region today as a trough digs into the Rockies. A modified Arctic cold front will move southeastward into the Northland today with temperatures generally falling behind the front. Highs will occur a bit later the farther east one looks across the region, as the cold front will take longer to arrive.
Cool, breezy weather will prevail through Tuesday as strong high pressure building offshore provides increasing amounts of sunshine.
High clouds cover most of the fcst area as SW flow exists 500-300 mb out ahead of southward moving 500 mb trough over the central Rockies. Expect skies to become mostly clear tonight north and clearing south, then a mostly sunny Tuesday as the 500 mb low drops into the southern Rockies and upper flow becomes more northwest kicking the high clouds out.
Mid/high cloud cover is beginning to spread ewd back into the area this early Mon morning, as a weak upper ridge axis over the Gulf region begins to translate east towards the srn Atlantic states. High pressure over the Gulf waters will also begin to move east later today, thereby allowing a return flow pattern to usher unseasonably warm air into the mid TN Valley area. Afternoon highs look to climb into the lower 70s/around 70F for most spots, with increasing clouds continuing thru the day. Moisture transport is expected to increase into the region later tonight, as an upper trough axis drops well into the SW states. A sfc wave should also develop over the srn Plains and quickly lift NE into the Midwest/OH Valley regions Tue into Wed, with an attendant cold front trailing into the lower MS Valley.
349 AM MST Mon Feb 3 2020 Water vapor imagery shows the upper trough now crossing the Great Basin, with strong forcing aloft across Wyoming and just into far western South Dakota. The cold front has pushed well south of the CWA, with temperatures dropping into the upper teens to upper 20s. High pressure is building into central Canada into North Dakota. Strong upper ridging will build across the western CONUS, with northwest flow across the northern Great Plains.
403 AM CST Mon Feb 3 2020 A broad upper level ridge currently encompasses then central 1/3 of the country. Temperatures will moderate today as a result of increasing heights from the building high pressure. A longwave trough will slowly dig south from the Rockies to Texas over a 48 hour period, beginning Tues morning.
High pressure, with warm advection, will result in temperatures around 20 degrees above normal across the region today, with continued dry conditions. Eastern CONUS ridge will allow for strong southwesterly flow tonight and Tuesday.
Later tonight, the low level CAA sequence should wrap up, leaving more of a neutral air advection pattern to work with for temperatures on Tuesday. Tuesday night starts out with a positively tilted trough over the central/west central CONUS. This trough will propagate to the east over the week and leave the region in northwest flow which will usher in a series of weak systems towards the latter half of the work week.
Weak ridging early will give way to dry and cool north to northwest flow.
901 AM EST Mon Feb 3 2020 A weak disturbance crosses the area today with a few clouds along with scattered snow showers across the higher terrain. A weak ridge of high pressure will cross the region tonight. another unseasonably mild day and partly sunny with highs ranging from the 30s across the mountains to the lower and mid 40s elsewhere. A ridge of high pressure builds into the region tonight, with some lingering low clouds across the higher terrain otherwise a mainly clear night.
Temperatures remain in the mid to upper 30s in this area at 09Z with ground temps near these levels as well, but the shallow CAA may bring air temps to around freezing during the drizzle. Though confidence in much drizzle being widespread or impactful given the ground temps, will go ahead with a Winter Weather Advisory for Republic and Washington counties where the greatest potential for freezing temps and drizzle appears highest. The upper trough over the Great Basin this morning moves into central Rockies late tonight.
The strong warm advection and dry conditions will continue one more day before a cold front enters the forecast area on Tuesday.
339 AM CST Mon Feb 3 2020 A trough of low pressure will approach from the west today and continue to bring changes to the weather. But just as the dendritic layer deepens and partially saturates the low levels begin to dry out. Cold conditions will continue into Tuesday as high pressure builds southward.
Ahead of the system, ridging will occur from the mid- Atlantic states southward. A cold front will approach the region from the Plains tonight, and will slowly push toward central sections of the state on Tuesday.
The NAMnest, HRRR and RAP models also backed off on the potential for freezing drizzle across the Sandhills. Just swrn and scntl Nebraska are expected to see a brief period of freezing drizzle this morning. Freezing drizzle was briefly reported at Chadron overnight which has since changed to snow. This will support cool high pressure building in from the nrn Rockies and Wyoming where heavy snow has fallen.
The low pressure in Colorado will drift southeast today with its impact on North Dakota being clouds. A weak cold front was crossing the forecast area early this Monday morning with a narrow band of gusty winds, around 25 mph. This was likely snow flurries at the worst as observed and forecast soundings showed quite a bit of dry air in the lowest levels, leading to evaporation of anything actually falling from cloud. For tonight, as the low in Colorado drifts southeast even drier air will work in with a decrease in clouds. With high pressure and subsidence on Tuesday that should be the nicest looking day of the week - by that I mean with sunshine.
325 AM PST Mon Feb 3 2020 Blustery and much colder weather can be expected tonight in the wake of a cold front with spotty light precipitation in the mountains.
For tonight, the developing low pressure system across eastern CONUS will begin to slide towards the east. As this happens, its associated cold front will turn winds out of the WNW and quickly drop temperatures. By Tuesday, the cold front will continue to slowly slide across the Missouri Ozarks region. As temperatures continue to plummet through the day into the evening hours on Tuesday, there will be a possibility of some light wintry mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain/drizzle.