Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1143 AM MDT Fri Jul 21 2017 Showers and thunderstorms are once again the main forecast concern for today as a cold front drops from north-to-south across the CWA over the next few hours. All models bring this front south into CO by 18z today, suggesting limited convective coverage for areas out side of the higher elevations this afternoon/evening w/the arrival of drier and more stable air. However, there is potential for this front to stall near the Colorado border, which would keep the low- level convergence in the vicinity of the I-80 corridor and support shower/thunderstorm development a bit further north. Saturday is expected to be quite a bit cooler in the post-frontal air mass w/ H7 temperatures falling to around +12 deg C.
310 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017 High pressure will bring rain free weather today, along with seasonably warm, humid conditions. An approaching warm front, will bring unsettled weather back to the region this weekend. The lower clouds and fog should burn off towards 8-9 am. This is owing to weak high pressure ridging southward from Ontario and Quebec.
along or just off the central Gulf coast while a ridge builds in across south FL and Cuba from the Atlantic by late Sat afternoon. Surface - A broad and relaxed ridge of high pressure in the Atlantic with an axis that meanders through southern FL. However the upper low with it/s cooler temperatures have helped to fire convection earlier today and will support more robust storms. The upper low pulls away to the west Sat with a little less instability for the area.
134 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017 High pressure will bring rain free weather today, along with seasonably warm, humid conditions. An approaching warm front, will bring unsettled weather back to the region this weekend. The lower clouds and fog should burn off towards 8-9 am. This is owing to weak high pressure ridging southward from Ontario and Quebec.
432 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017 A weak cold front moving southward from Quebec may bring an isolated shower or thunderstorm near the international border through this evening.
640 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017 A stalled frontal boundary south of the area will attempt to lift north as a warm front overnight.
High pressure aloft is expected to keep the area dry with fair weather the next 24 hours.
This will likely be maintained well into the evening as energy is rotating around upper low in central Gulf. High pressure aloft dominating most of the central and southern Plains, with erosion from the east as the upper low over the eastern Gulf moves west. As the moisture and instability increases from the east with the approaching upper low, chances of showers and thunderstorms increase across Central and South Central Louisiana to the Atchafalaya river by late afternoon into the evening hours after maximum heating has occurred. With dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s, heat index values in the 100-107 range. In the meantime, expect temperatures to be rather warm today, with highs in the low to mid 90s, but max heat indices stay below 105 F in most locations.
304 PM MDT Fri Jul 21 2017 Upper analysis shows mainly zonal flow across the northern CONUS as an upper low flattens the broad upper ridge as it crosses the Canadian prairie provinces and swings and weak upper trough across the northern plains.
/Issued 730 AM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017/ The upper low vicinity of north FL should continue to drift southwest and weaken. The main feature is the upper ridge that will persist and nose eastward across the forecast area. The upper ridge weakens slightly on Saturday and the lee side trough looks more pronounced. Afternoon temperatures should range in the low to mid 90s for much of the forecast area today and mostly low to mid 90s Saturday.
Slow moving thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain this aftn, with the stronger storm producing one half to three quarters of an inch of rainfall in 30 minutes. If the storms underperform tonight, then drier soils may allow for warmer temperatures than the max temperatures currently in the grids. This occurs as ridging begins to pop back up across the Great Basin.
218 PM PDT Fri Jul 21 2017 A warm front will result in increasing cloud cover over the northern mountains with some showers expected in the east slopes of the northern Cascades tonight. Clouds will clear on Saturday with warmer temperatures back up into the 90s this weekend.
Vapor imagery reveals a weak upper low moving across the marine area this morning and this will provide at least some assistance to developing thunderstorms this afternoon. Given that a little more convection is expected today, especially across the western half of the region, will show temperatures in the low to mid 90s in the western portion of the region, but in the mid 90s in the eastern half of the region. Overnight lows will dip in the lower to middle 70s.
351 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017 Pennsylvania will be on the northern periphery of a subtropical ridge passing across the southern states through the weekend.
402 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017 A cold front will cross the area this evening. High pressure will build across the region over the weekend.
the best chance for development looks to be late in the afternoon through early evening as a wave associated with current activity over the Midwest crosses, Cooler, albeit still above average temperature can be expected today given the lack of sustained cold advection/frontal push under zonal flow. Upper ridging is projected to rebuild over the Upper Ohio/Great Lakes Regions by Saturday in response to deep troughing over the Plains. Warmth and moisture will thus quickly return and precip probability will escalate as that trough/associated front system dig eastward this weekend.
Temperatures have already risen into the lower 80s across much of the area. This deep trough will be the main feature influencing our weather over the next 24 to 48 hours. Temperatures are expected to climb into the middle 80s again and dew points are already in the low 70s resulting in a very unstable airmass. a weak LLJ and the possibility of weak impulses rounding the base of the trough will enhance our chance of severe storms. The highest threat for severe storms will likely be across northwestern portions of the Midsouth in closer proximity to the dynamic support.
/Issued 255 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017/ A closed upper level low over Colorado had a vort max in the base of its circulation moving east across eastern Arizona. A cold front was pushing south across the east central and southeast Texas Panhandle. This cold front should move southeast of the CWA by sunrise. Therefore, will keep the highest pops across this region. Will also keep some lower pops elsewhere given the increase in upper level diffluence and the close proximity of the cold front. The panhandles will be under a northwest flow aloft through the rest of the forecast as a ridge builds across the western U. and a trough gets carved out across the eastern U.
1032 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 Cold front will push across the area today, scattered rain showers are expected this morning. Much cooler and drier weather arrives by midday with some patchy frost possible overnight.
1259 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017 A strong cold front will cross the region today and will move off the Downeast coast this afternoon. High pressure in Canada will slowly build into the area through the weekend.
A cold front will move through the area Saturday morning, resulting in gusty north winds and another chance of showers and thunderstorms. Tonight a cold front will move south through the area, bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms to much of the area. With convection expected to accompany the cold front, the effective front will likely move to the south a little faster than models indicate, thus have likely chances as far south as the I-10 corridor.
741 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 Cold front will push across the area today, scattered rain showers are expected this morning. Much cooler and drier weather arrives by midday with some patchy frost possible overnight.
A cold front will push through the terminals tonight resulting in a wind shift to the northeast at 10 to 20 mph and gusty. Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will also be a concern this morning as training takes place fueled by the low level jet perpendicular to the dryline. By tonight the associated cold front will move south through the forecast area. More thunderstorms are possible this weekend especially from the southeast Permian Basin south and west to the lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend Region.
Surface map at 06Z shows high pressure anchored off the East Coast and a weaker pressure gradient over Middle Tennessee than 24 hours ago. A warm front is situated north of the Ohio Valley that is attached to a low near the Texas/Mexico border. Look for POP's to begin increasing on Saturday as the aforementioned low tracks northeastward toward the Great Lakes and drags a cold front toward Middle Tennessee.
451 AM PDT Fri May 19 2017 High pressure aloft will build in from the Eastern Pacific towards California this weekend. However, with the continued upper level troughs moving through or inside sliders moving across the west, the true May Gray pattern has been interrupted for now. Synoptically, An upper level ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pac will slowly nudge eastward towards the California Coast and persist through Sat night. This will slightly weaken the upper ridging over swrn CA for the second half of the weekend.
Warming and drying have begun as upper ridge off the northwest coast comes inland; today should be 6-10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Models continue to show a short wave trough moving around the northern periphery of the ridge today and then into our area Saturday afternoon and night, mainly on the Idaho side. Latest satellite imagery shows the trough as an area of clouds near 50N/135W. A portion of an upper level ridge centered off the California coast will bring gradual warming, with near normal temperatures Saturday.
609 AM MDT Fri May 19 2017 The primary concern in the short term period is the possibility of near freezing temperatures early Saturday morning that have prompted the issuance of a frost advisory over far eastern Colorado. The large upper level low pressure system over the central Rockies begins to move into the Central High Plains today and lifts into the Central Plains on Saturday. Dryer and warmer conditions are expected by late Saturday and Saturday night as high pressure moves into the region Saturday night.
637 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017 High pressure remains situated over north central ND with dry north to northeast flow which continues to erode the leading edge of precipitation as it tries to push across the border from South Dakota. Blocking upper level high pressure ridge remains over the northern plains today and tonight, finally getting shunted eastward as strong upper low over the intermountain west ejects into the central plains Friday night. Currently, high pressure is situated over northern North Dakota into Manitoba. With more sun across the north, highs will be warmer from Williston to Minot and Bottineau.
Yet another round of storms will develop across Oklahoma and Texas this afternoon as an upper level low spreads east into the Plains. Low level shear will increase this evening ahead of the upper level low as the low level jet increases.
534 AM MDT Fri May 19 2017 Water vapor shows massive upper low over over wrn CO with moisture being pulled north out of the srn plains through the nrn plains. At the surface, high pressure located over nrn ND with ridge extending swwd into nern WY is stifling the nrn extent of pcpn across our cwfa. Radar return shows best area of pcpn across west central SD at this time, although some of the higher returns are bright banding. Upper low expected to drift slowly ewd through CO today.
1127 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 A cold front will move across the area today bringing cooler temperatures, with even some frosty conditions possible tonight and again Saturday night in the mountains.
933 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 A strong cold front will cross the region today and will move off the Downeast coast this afternoon. High pressure in Canada will slowly build into the area through the weekend.
An upper high pressure ridge over the E Pacific will shift E over the next couple of days.
1037 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 Currently - A large Atlantic high pressure system stretches a ridge across the southeastern United States and Gulf of Mexico, delivering moderate to fresh east southeast breezes across the Florida Keys. Short Term Update - The strong high pressure system will remain in place today and winds are expected to strengthen later this afternoon or evening as the momentary lull runs its course. A high pressure system to our north is maintaining a fairly tight pressure gradient across Florida Keys waters. On this date back in the year 1995, the low temperature bottomed out to a sultry 82 degrees, setting the daily warm minimum temperature record for this date.
High pressure remains situated over north central ND with dry north to northeast flow which continues to erode the leading edge of precipitation as it tries to push across the border from South Dakota. Blocking upper level high pressure ridge remains over the northern plains today and tonight, finally getting shunted eastward as strong upper low over the intermountain west ejects into the central plains Friday night. Currently, high pressure is situated over northern North Dakota into Manitoba. With more sun across the north, highs will be warmer from Williston to Minot and Bottineau.
927 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 A cold front will slide southeast across the state today. Cooler and drier air will follow for the weekend.
Continued southeast flow from high pressure over the Atlantic - winds at 10-15 knots and seas 3-4 feet can be expected through the weekend.
After this, expect the highest precip. chances will be across the higher elevations of the Southern Appalachians. Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 68 90 68 / 20 20 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 67 89 66 / 30 20 30 50 Oak Ridge, TN 86 66 90 66 / 40 20 30 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 63 87 60 / 50 20 50 30.
933 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 A cold front sinks southward into the area today, only to retreat back northward on Saturday.
High pressure ridge north of the area maintain an east-southeast breeze, up to 15 knots, across the waters.
Drier conditions will persist through the morning hours today as weak ridging develops to the west.
929 AM PDT Fri May 19 2017 High pressure building across CA and weak offshore flow will create widespread above normal high temperatures through Saturday.
Issued by National Weather Service TUCSON AZ 907 AM MST Fri May 19 2017 Broad area of low pressure will begin to exit the region today, keeping below normal temperatures in place across the lower deserts.
401 AM PDT Fri May 19 2017 High pressure aloft near the West Coast and weak offshore flow will bring warming through Saturday both inland and towards the coast.
548 AM MDT Fri May 19 2017 The closed low pressure system responsible for the return to winter-like conditions in the mountains and some of the high valleys was centered over Paonia early this morning. The low will shift slowly eastward during the day according to models. Dynamic and orographic lift not all that impressive beneath the low circulation. However, instability beneath the cold core low combined with a shift in flow to the north as the high pushes eastward is expected to bring an uptick in snowfall over the mountains this afternoon. Snow decreases tonight as the low center continues to shift over the central High Plains. Meanwhile, lingering cold may cause lows to reach freezing again for some of Colorado's southwestern valleys. Warmer air begins filtering into the area which will drive snow levels to near 10,000 feet and above.
946 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 A cold front will move across the area today bringing cooler temperatures, with even some frosty conditions possible tonight and again Saturday night in the mountains.
1142 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 A cold front will slide southeast across the state today. Cooler and drier air will follow for the weekend.
647 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017 An extremely complicated forecast going forward today as well- advertised upper low spins across the Four Corners region. Despite the presence of these combined forcing mechanisms, degree of destabilization remains in question this morning (persistent cloud cover) along with concerns for deep layer shear as numerous BUFKIT forecast soundings reveal a very chaotic wind field pattern through the lowest 10-15 kft. Heaviest axis of rain will likely be along the highway 50 and I-70 corridors with the soils primed for possible flash flooding. Rains should gradually come to an end through the day on Saturday as cool high pressure settles into the Plains/Lower Missouri Vly.
741 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 High pressure over Lake Superior will shift east of the lakes by Saturday.
BT Previous Short Term Discussion: GOES Satellite imagery shows Northeast Montana located between a split trough, with a large storm system well to our south and centered over Colorado, and a weaker system in northern Alberta and Saskatchewan.
928 AM PDT Fri May 19 2017 High pressure aloft will build in from the Eastern Pacific towards California this weekend. ***From previous discussion*** Synoptically, An upper level ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pac will slowly nudge eastward towards the California Coast and persist through Sat night. This will slightly weaken the upper ridging over swrn CA for the second half of the weekend.
/issued 651 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017/ This morning a large upper level ridge of high pressure centered near the Four Corners Region expanded to the East across the Four State Region. A broad upper level trough of low pressure covered much of the Central and Eastern sections of the country, while another upper level high pressure ridge was situated off the Eastern Seaboard in the Western Atlantic. The system to be concerned about for the rest of the work week and into the weekend was a potential tropical cyclone 3 in the central Gulf of Mexico.
935 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 An upper trough will provide more comfortable conditions through midweek.
618 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Forecast concerns in the short term will be multiple chances for thunderstorms as a warm front lifts north of the forecast area later this afternoon and tonight. a cold front pushes into northeast Nebraska Wednesday afternoon.
1104 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Cooler and slightly drier air is moving in for a couple of days. An upper level trough will approach the region later this week and draw a plume of deep tropical moisture north from the Gulf Coast region.
Isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms with gusty winds could develop this afternoon over the higher terrain, mainly from Flagstaff southeastward.
Significant drying has occurred within the low to mid levels compared to 24 hours ago, evident on both the morning XMR sounding as well as water vapor satellite imagery. The squeeze play between the lowering pressures over the central Gulf and the western Atlantic ridge has allowed deep-layer southeast flow to develop through ~20,000 feet. Given the lowering PWATs and more stable airmass moving overhead, have lowered PoPs across the board today. Expect enhanced maritime flow to shift the (diffuse) sea breeze inland rather quickly this afternoon, keeping the highest rain chances (40 - 50%) confined to the western half of the peninsula.
743 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Expect decent diurnal cumulus again today with some degree of showers (isolated thunder) as well as a weak cold front moves into the area. Skies clear pretty quickly this evening as high pressure begins to build into area behind the front. West-southwest winds will gust into the 20-25 knot range within decent pressure gradient as the a cold front approaches. Active weather pattern through the week as we first continue to deal with persistent upper level low and associated troughs rotating about it.
/Issued 357 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017/ An upper level ridge will dominate the weather for the next 24 to 36 hours while we wait to see what will happen with what is currently Potential Tropical Cyclone Three which is currently over the Central Gulf of Mexico. After morning lows in the 70s, temperatures will rise into the low to mid 90s this afternoon. Since the Potential Tropical Cyclone has not organized very well yet, it is hard to determine how much "weather" we will see from this system.
1224 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 A weak cold front will linger across the region this afternoon.
As of 16Z, the synoptic cold front that crossed the mountains yesterday evening has stalled over portions of the N/NW Piedmont (where dewpoints have fallen into the 60s). By 21-00Z, low-level flow (SFC-H85) will veer to the south as the height/mslp gradient tightens between potential tropical cyclone 3 in the GOMEX and high pressure offshore the Southeast coast. Expect highs in the lower/mid 80s, lows Wed night in the mid/upper 60s to lower 70s, warmest far S/SE.
Drier air will start to filter in from the northwest as a cold front approaches, although there will be enough moisture for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Isolated thunderstorms developing in the higher elevations of the Southwest Highlands, Owyhee Mountains, Southern Twin Falls County and extreme southern portions of SE Oregon this afternoon. Upper level ridge continues to bring warm unstable air to SE Oregon and SW Idaho.
1119 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Potential tropical cyclone 3 continues to migrate slowly northwest acrs the central Gulf.
718 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Cooler and slightly drier air is moving in for a couple of days. An upper level trough will approach the region later this week and draw a plume of deep tropical moisture north from the Gulf Coast region.
630 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Northwest flow prevailing over the fcst region this morning as upper ridging continues to take shape over the western U. and a closed low spins over eastern Canada. Main item of concern today will focus on a weak backdoor cold front that will begin sliding south into our fcst area by afternoon as high pressure builds east across the upper Midwest. As for temperatures, compressed thermal ridging in advance of the front will lead to a pretty warm day across the area, with upper 80s to lower 90s expected areawide. Aforementioned front will actually start lifting back north as as a warm front overnight as upper Midwest high pressure slides east and leeside low pressure develops over the northern High Plains.
It will be a little cooler to end the week as onshore flow increases, extending the marine influence farther inland. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO Massive ridge is parked over the Desert Southwest, centered over Arizona. I do like that we are on the higher end of guidance for these locales, so no changes will be made to forecast Max Ts this morning. The Coachella Valley and the San Diego County deserts will see their peak heat today and Wednesday with forecast highs into the lower 120s! Thousand Palms had an incredibly hot low temperature this morning of 96F degrees. Global models continue to show the ridge strength lessening a tad Thu, and then actually re-strengthening a bit Fri-Sat. A weak perturbation at upper levels (above H50) moves around the ridge periphery this weekend (moving in from the S-SW).
Temperatures should rise into the lower 70s in south central Wisconsin, with upper 60s to around 70 elsewhere.
Dewpoint temperatures were in the lower 60s in the north, to the upper 60s to around 70 in the far south. The upper low pressure trough was moving to the east, with a northwest upper flow still into AR. / Issued 631 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017/ High pressure will dominate through the period with widespread VFR conditions expected.