Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Mid late week: A more typical synoptic patter will ensue with high pressure to the north, generating east/northeast flow across our CWA. Maximum temperature are forecast in the lower 80s, sitting stagnant around seasonal norms. High pressure will move slowly east from the Gulf of Mexico into the Florida peninsula by middle of the week. Drier air will continue to filter southward across the peninsula tonight, behind the passing cold front. Min RH values are forecast from the lower 40s in Lake Okeechobee to around 50 percent further south.
There's not much in the way of pcpn this afternoon over the lower elevations east of the mtns, although some locations in and near the mtns are likely seeing some light pcpn. At this time, models show little in the way of snow accumulation at the lower elevations, but the higher elevations are still expected to get several inches, and the current Winter Wx Advisory still looks warranted, and will not make changes. In the afternoon there could just be some isolated lingering light pcpn over the higher peaks. Temps acrs the southeast plains should be much warmer than today, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s over El Paso county, and in the 50s over the rest of the southeast plains. The high valley locations should have high mostly in the 50s.
Cooler temperatures still well forecast northeast. Upper level analysis places low over Lake Superior, with ridge off the Pacific coast. Thereafter, a mainly quiet night is expected with chilly temperatures as the high passes to the southeast. Otherwise, quiet weather is expected through the day with southerly winds resulting in warmer, though still below average, temperatures.
200 AM MDT Tue Oct 31 2017 Latest upper air analysis shows the long wave trough slowly moving east across the northern CONUS, with northwest flow dominating the weather pattern over the country. Within the northwest flow subtle short wave troughs still existed over the Rockies. Tonight cloud cover will return, along with chances for snowfall from the southwest, as the next upper level short wave trough approaches the forecast area. Tuesday morning light snow will spread across the forecast area from west to east ahead of the deepening upper level short wave trough moving through.
150 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 High pressure on Tuesday will bring mostly sunny but cool conditions. Due to this have focused the highest precipitation chances across this area. Any snow will be short lived as warmer air moves into the region.
/issued 323 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017/ Mostly zonal flow aloft becomes more southwesterly overnight as a deep trough moves across eastern Canada. This will bring deeper moisture towards the area thru the day but looks like most of the associated precip activity will be halted by weak sfc ridging down the eastern seaboard.
328 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2017 Precipitation is beginning to develop across far west Texas and southern New Mexico as a southern stream trough and upper jet approach the forecast area. Decent lift associated with the trough and jet above the cooler air will generate scattered showers this morning. In addition the rain could mix with some light sleet and or light snow across the highest of elevations of the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains as temperatures approach freezing in those areas.
A much cooler and unsettled weather pattern will develop Wednesday night and will continue through the weekend. Evening update: Temperatures dropping quickly tonight with clear skies and dewpoints in the lower twenties to upper teens.
126 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 High pressure gradually builds to the south before settling over the region on Tuesday night. High pressure gradually builds to the south before settling over the region on Tuesday night. Temperatures across the Pine Barrens are remaining warmer than forecast due to sustained winds around 10 mph, which should continue through much of the night. Weak front or trough approaches the area overnight. Drier and cooler air continues to advect into the region. The pressure gradient weakens between the departing low and incoming high pressure. Expecting a few locations to the north and in the Pine Barrens of Long Island to approach the freezing mark or even a few degrees below. High pressure shifts offshore on Wednesday with a warm front beginning to approach from the west.
330 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 Today and Tonight: The Florida peninsula will remain under the influence of high pressure over the northeastern Gulf today. Analysis this morning shows that flow just above the surface has already veered north-northeasterly as the ridge begins to drift eastwards. Low temperatures tonight will be 5-10 degrees warmer due to the onshore flow. Anywhere that stays NE will remain warmer, and sites that become NW may drop colder than forecast. This will veer flow more east-northeast through the rest of the week, with a modest increase in speed late week as a low level trough sets up over the western Atlantic.
With a little cooler temperatures and more times as snow, there could be a few locations that would have up to an inch of snow during the day today. The temperatures will be warmer tonight than what they are currently. The mean trof will form there with WSW flow here. Cold frontal passages are slated for Wed night and Sun. The lower visibility should be a short period.
146 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 A weak, dry cold front is crossing the area tonight.
210 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 High pressure will remain over the southeastern states today, ahead of a weak cold front that will settle into North Carolina tonight. The front will retreat north of our region Wednesday, with following warm high pressure extending across the eastern states through the end of the week. A frontal zone to our NW is expected to push southeast today and settle into the trough across NC late today through tonight, but with a dry column, no discernible forcing for ascent, and a weak surface flow yielding no low level mass convergence, there will be very few clouds. -GIH A weak and dry cold front will sag southeast into the western Carolinas early tomorrow, where it will stall through tomorrow night as it aligns parallel to broad mid level troffing.
331 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 High pressure over the area today will result in dry, cool conditions. However, a cold front that passed through the area yesterday evening has ushered in a chilly airmass. With sfc air temps and road temps above freezing, no impacts are expected. Low temps tonight should range through the 30s with the low actually being reached before precip arrival and temps slightly warming toward sunrise. The boundary associated with this system will lift north late in the day as a warm front allowing high temps in the 50s to around 60 to occur toward evening.
Hence still expect the lower clouds to thin and break up for a time later this morning and early afternoon. The higher clouds should prevent temperatures from falling too far during the overnight.
Robinson is near freezing and Champaign, Effingham and Paris reached around freezing before the low clouds moved in past few hours. As low clouds decrease over east central IL through sunrise, expect temperatures currently in the mid to upper 30s to settle back down toward freezing. A day expected on this Halloween with highs in the low to mid 40s. Lows tonight in the lower 30s over central IL and mid 30s in southeast IL.
341 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 High pressure will settle over the area today into tonight as an approaching cold front stalls to the northwest. Temperatures should warm to highs in the lower to mid 70s, which would actually be a couple of degrees above normal. Overnight lows tonight will still be cool in the 40s but highs on Wednesday will warm into the mid to upper 70s and lows Wednesday night will be in the lower to mid 50s.
the cold front. The cold front we have all been anxiously anticipating stalled along the high plateaus north of I-70 earlier this afternoon with not much in the way of shower activity accompanying it. Still, temperatures did cool significantly behind the front with the Vernal, Craig, and Meeker Airports sitting 13, 22, and 17 degrees cooler than this time yesterday. As previously mentioned the cold front will be slowly moving through the area this evening but it will not be your typical cut-and-dry cold front recovery with the usual significant clearing behind the front. Warm air advection situated across southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado ahead of a closed low pressure system to our southeast could potentially extend further north.
1129 PM MDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Mean upper level pattern will continue to favor active NW flow with the sfc cyclone track over the region. Have sided with the cooler side of guidance. Warmer conds expected Tue as return flow ensues ahead of the next low. Frontal boundary will trend back north again toward the end of the week as the the next expected sfc cyclone develops and WAA ensues.
Current surface observations shows the cold front slowly pushing southward out of the Hill Country early this morning and will begin to approach South Texas around or just after sunrise. As the cold front creeps into South Texas, it is expected to reorient to a northeast to southwest boundary and stall across the area this afternoon. Current thinking is the cold front will stall somewhere between the eastern Brush Country and the coastal Plains this afternoon. The upper level dynamics are better north of our CWA, but with the synoptic lift along and ahead of the cold front combined with CAPE values around 1500 J/kg over the Coastal Plains and the Gulf Waters, along with PWATs between 1. Moisture advection and lift along the cold front will help maintain showers and storms to continue overnight.
354 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 A weak cold front slips south across the region later today, with high pressure moving off the New England coast Wednesday.
Tonight will be warmer than this night, and the warming will continue in southern areas Wednesday. Northern areas will cool Wednesday afternoon as a surface cold front comes in from the north.
136 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 High pressure early this week. Weak cold front continues to push through forecast area, with a stratus deck trailing it. These clouds should gradually dissipate/move out from SW to NE this morning as high pressure moves in at the surface. For the most part, have temperatures above freezing before any precipitation begins to fall. The resultant warm front is progged to move up from the South through Wednesday creating widespread shower activity across the region,.
Subjective 00Z upper-air analysis indicates an upper low was centered over northern ON, with troughing across must of the US east of the Rockies, including embedded troughts over ID-NV-northern CA and along the western AZ border. An 850mb low was centered in northeast ON, with sub-0C temperatures to the MO-AR border and to western WY/western MT in wake of the low. Temperatures during the early evening trick-or-treat hours will fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s by around 8pm, and with a south wind at around 10kt, the apparent temperature (wind chill) will register in the lower to mid 20s.
Also, the low level ridge axis across SC/GA will settle southward through the day which will also temper convective growth. Still expect some gusts near 15-20 mph by early to mid afternoon with the higher speeds along the coast and near inland estuaries.
While the synoptic models have been advertising a very wet period for the next couple of days, the high resolution, short-range models now depict more of a scattered variety to the shower and tstm activity today, with a possible lull tonight, then picking up again on Mon with the final push.
Models remain consistent in showing the low levels moistening quickly today and at least light rain moving in, and there are much more significant radar returns off Cape Mendocino moving our way. At any rate, today will be much different than yesterday with plenty of cloud, some rain, and cooler temperatures. The trough will push to the northeast, and a very short lived ridge will build in overhead late tonight into early Monday morning. Despite the ridge, showers will continue under moist onshore flow.
An upper ridge will bring warm temperatures and partly sunny skies to the area today. This will quickly be followed by an upper low bringing clouds and a chance of light precipitation to Western Washington tonight.
At upper levels, ridging has shifted eastward to the Carolinas, with west to southwest flow across the local area.
A warmer southwest flow today will be followed by a weak weather disturbance impacting far northern Utah Monday.
945 AM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 High pressure will sit to the southeast today, pumping a very warm air mass into our region. A cold front will move through Monday.
With the expectation that this activity will diminish sooner rather than later, high temperatures should be warmer than previously forecast but confidence is not high that they will be as warm as current guidance suggests.
908 AM MDT Sun Apr 16 2017 Satellite imagery this morning shows mainly clear skies across most of central and southwest Montana thanks to an upper level ridge of high pressure building east into the region. Area of low to mid level cloud-cover has crept south to the Hwy2 corridor along with a wind shift to the N in association with a low level frontal boundary ahead of a cooler airmass moving south from AB. Expect the wind shift boundary to slide south across most of N-Central MT later this morning, but lower level clouds will have some difficulty making it further south with daytime warming and subsidence beneath the incoming upper level ridge. Upper level low currently along Northern California coast moves northeastward overnight.
1028 AM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 High pressure will remain well off the southeast coast through this afternoon.
coast and the ridge axis to our north continuing the general east to southeast low level flow.
However, a weak cold front across northeast Montana will slide south today working its way into our eastern portions which will bring some clouds across mainly Custer and Fallon Counties so I have added this to the grids for the afternoon.
With high pressure at the surface still wedged into the forecast area from the east, a weak mid/upper level trough continues to slowly work its way east across the region. Otherwise for today, look for partly to mostly cloudy skies as highs this afternoon peak in the low and middle 80s. Weak upper troughing, PWATS around 1. With the cloud cover expect temperatures to remain in the low 80s across the area. A warm and humid airmass will remain in place across the region as temperatures rise into the lower to mid 80s and PW values will be around 1.
Mesoscale models are showing a few showers along the cold front around 5-9 am, mainly in the northern forecast area where pops were limited to.
A sprawling high pressure cell remains centered over the western North Atlantic, with a slightly weaker gradient evident along its southern flank, including the Florida Keys.
1219 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 Showers and thunderstorms can be expected today with a crossing cold front. Bulk of convective activity right now is contained across southern Ohio and central West Virginia, although cold front has barely even reached western Ohio at this point. With the latest update to the forecast, have kept pops higher across southern counties initially, transitioning to a slightly later arrival of rain with the cold front. Low pressure traversing rapidly from the Northern Lakes across Southeastern Canada will shunt a cold front across the Upper Ohio Valley later today.
653 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017 Cold front over northeastern Iowa extends southwestward through northwestern Missouri as of 07z. Despite clouds, precipitation and northerly winds, will still see highs in the low to mid 70s today. Cooler temps expected, but still a bit above normal for this time of year, in the upper 40s to upper 50s. Otherwise, VFR conditions to prevail with winds veering to the northwest to north behind cold front. Otherwise, VFR conditions to prevail with winds veering to the northwest to north behind cold front.
High pressure has released its grip on the Midsouth. A weak cold front will sink south today. The highest rain chances will be along the front with chances tapering off farther South. although a bit cooler than the weekend due to increased cloud cover and rainfall.
Model soundings indicate an adiabatic profile in the lower layers today. Another upper level low pressure system was located over southern SASK with two short waves embedded. Another upper level low pressure system was located off the CA coast. Remainder of week to be dry as ridging amplifies over the Rockies. Main activity late in week will be over cntrl US as upper low in southern stream moves across the midwest.
North to northeast winds will keep Lk Superior shore much cooler today with highs in the upper 30s to lowr 40s while farther inland under increasing sunshine this afternoon expect highs well into the 50s and likely low 60s over scntrl. Fcst soundings suggest potential for frozen/freezing pcpn late tonight, depending on whether moisture will deep enough to extend to the -10C isotherm for ice crystal introduction for snow as ptype. However, there may be stronger southeast winds of 25 to 30 kts Tue afternoon on the east half as low pressure tracks over the Great Lakes. More strong winds to 30 kts are possible late Wed night into Thu as another low pressure system affects the Upper Great Lakes.
817 AM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 Showers and thunderstorms can be expected today with a crossing cold front. Low pressure traversing rapidly from the Northern Lakes across Southeastern Canada will shunt a cold front across the Upper Ohio later today.
Have updated forecast for more high clouds and slightly warmer temperatures today.
527 AM MDT Sun Apr 16 2017 Current surface analysis shows weak high pressure over the forecast area. Strong westerly jet is to the south of the low across the Northern Plains, with fast zonal flow stretching back to the Pacific NW. The dry cold front to the northwest will slowly slide south across the area today. Front to the south will lift back north into the area as a warm front during the day as low pressure develops along it across eastern WY. The best chances for rainfall late Monday into Monday night will be mostly east of the Black Hills as low pressure moves quickly across SD during this time.
630 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017 High pressure will move across the forecast area today. These areas show a modestly deep layer of moisture between 700mb and 500mb along a very weak mid level short wave moving southeastward on the southern side of an upper low to our north. Otherwise with light winds late tonight, trended toward cooler guidance readings such as MOS for lows.
1106 AM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 Cold front approaches from the northwest today and crosses the region later tonight giving showers and thunderstorms. A cold front approaches from the northwest to bring a good chance for showers and thunderstorms through tonight. Cold front stalls out across Southern West Virginia on Monday morning.
730 AM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 Easter Sunday will be quite warm ahead of a cold front that will cross Pennsylvania tonight.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 60 78 60 / 20 10 60 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 59 76 59 / 20 20 60 60 Oak Ridge, TN 83 59 75 59 / 20 30 60 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 79 55 74 53 / 20 30 60 60.
851 AM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017 Showers and thunderstorms can be expected today with a crossing cold front. Low pressure traversing rapidly from the Northern Lakes across Southeastern Canada will shunt a cold front across the Upper Ohio later today.
933 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017 Patchy fog outside of the Houston metro continues to lift this morning, with warm and humid conditions expected to persist for the rest of Easter Sunday as highs climb into the low to mid 80s. Rain chances should diminish Wed-Fri as a ridge begins nosing into the region from the southwest.
1020 AM MDT Sun Apr 16 2017 Current surface analysis shows weak high pressure over the forecast area. Strong westerly jet is to the south of the low across the Northern Plains, with fast zonal flow stretching back to the Pacific NW. The dry cold front to the northwest will slowly slide south across the area today. Front to the south will lift back north into the area as a warm front during the day as low pressure develops along it across eastern WY. The best chances for rainfall late Monday into Monday night will be mostly east of the Black Hills as low pressure moves quickly across SD during this time.
/issued 550 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017/ Low clouds have quickly moved north across the area today, with cloud bases mainly in the low mvfr to high ifr range. On Wed, flat upper ridging will dominate our portion of the country as an upper trough moves into the Northern/Central Plains quickly ejecting out into the Great Lakes Region for Thu.
RAP40 analysis shows an H100-H70 ridge axis extending from the Carolina Coast to Bermuda, which will maintain a deep and steady E/SE flow acrs central FL. Subsidence inversion in the H85-H70 lyr generated by the ridge axis will ensure any shras will be low-topped with QPF <0. Pgrad will gradually relax this aftn as the Atlc Ridge axis drifts further south and begins to weaken. Atlc ridge axis extending from the Carolina Coast to Bermuda will maintain a steady E/SE breeze acrs the region.
Confidence not terribly high but relatively strong s/wv trough will approach and should allow initiation late today.
Water vapor imagery shows a short wave trough over Chihuahua with an area of convection lingering just east of the Big Bend early this morning. An upper level jet streak moving across northern Mexico tonight will interact with unstable air mass over the higher terrain in northeast Mexico to develop scattered convection early this evening that will move southeast toward the Rio Grande tonight. The next upper level short wave trough will be diving southeast into Coahuila on Monday.
409 AM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018 One last day of quiet weather is expected as weak ridge passes overhead today. An upper level trough will enter the Pacific northwest today.
WV imagery shows the upper trough has made landfall on the west coast, and has begun transitioning zonal flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico to SW. Late tonight, as the upper trough passes the Four Corners into CO/NM, stronger winds w/the Pac front are forecast to move out onto the higher terrain of Reeves Co/Davis Mtns. Friday, a low-level jet rounds the base of the trough and moves thru the CWA. Because of slight timing differences in the models, it is difficult to pinpoint exactly when higher winds over the lower terrain warnings will commence--morning or afternoon. Despite cooler temps Fri afternoon behind the Pac front, single-digit Td's will still yield critical fire wx.
A deep upper trough will move in Montana today. Will start Winter Storm Warning in the east which includes Prairie, Dawson, and Wibaux County at 00z as precip will start later in the afternoon and warmer day time temperatures will allow for more rain than snow this afternoon. Upper trough moves into Montana and Wyoming tonight with a closed upper low forming over Wyoming. The closed low moves into the central plains Friday morning and the moisture moves to the south and east which will allow the snow to end.
115 AM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018 High pressure will shift offshore on Thursday, bringing a southwest flow and warming trend into the weekend.
327 AM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018 The remnant boundary from the cold front is sitting south and east of the region this morning. With high pressure building back in at the surface from the Atlantic, easterly flow will dominate today. On Friday, the mostly dry pattern continues as the next cold front emerges over the central United States.