Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
MID TO LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THE LOW PUSHES IN TONIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION.
955 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING AT A DRY AND PLEASANT FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS THROUGH THE REGION AND SRN STREAM SPLIT FLOW UPPER LOW STAYS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH/EAST.
919 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS LATE THIS EVENING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ECHOES SHOWING UP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. SOME BREAKS IN THE OVC WERE NOTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EJECT OUT TO OUR EAST. A MIX OF MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS WILL BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD AS AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLD LIGHT SHWRS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD ACROSS MAINLY TXK/ELD/MLU AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST.
/ISSUED 655 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015/ A STRATUS DECK WITH HIGH END MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA AND MIXING WILL BE MINIMIZED WITH SUNSET. IT WILL FINALLY ERODE OUT WEST LATE TONIGHT AND ELSEWHERE EARLY TO MID WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND DAYTIME MIXING COMMENCES. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTH TEXAS WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE NOTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
928 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
IT APPEARS CIGS THIS LOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z AS A SECONDARY VORTICITY CENTER WRAPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST WAVE. THIS HAS BEEN REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE RESULTING IN A QUIET AND PLEASANT DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY RESIDUAL WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGING TRANSLATES EASTWARD EARLY WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
642 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 FOR 00Z TAFS /ISSUED 303 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015/ THE FORCING WITH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN TEXAS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS THE LOW SHEARS OUT AND VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL CAPE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND SHEARING OUT OF THE UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY.
ONLY CHANGE MADE FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT OVER THE WEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGH CLOUD COVER. IT WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY AND INTO THE 70S WITH DRY WEATHER. IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP.
624 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 RATHER UNEVENTFUL NEXT 48 HOURS DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 30S WILL RESULT IN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING BY MORNING EXCEPT WEST RIVER WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT.
/ISSUED 248 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015/ AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SECOND SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND CONTINUED MIXING WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS THE COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. THE CTR OF THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE ARKLATEX AREA IS PROGD TO CONTINUE MVG E THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE ASSOCIATED LONG WAVE TROUGH IS ALSO PROGD TO REMAIN DRAPED E-W ACROSS CENTRAL AND S TX. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING'S COLD FRONT. HOWEVER A REINFORCING SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN STRONG N-NW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
742 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR YET ANOTHER DAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
1013 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA AND WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. FOLLOWED THE WARMER BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE. AND AS A RESULT IT WILL BE A MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MID 40S.
LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKY OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE LOW-MID 30S. A FEW COOLER POCKETS PSBL IN FAR EASTERN FCST AREA. THE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN CWA. THINK THAT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WE WILL GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE EAST WHILE MIXING IN THE WEST WILL KEEP US CLOSER TO 40 DEGREES. SOUTH WINDS AND A WARMER AIR MASS MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA WE SHOULD GET BACK INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S FOR TOMORROW. UPPER RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PICKING UP AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER.
1158 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2015 Positively tilted upper-level ridging across the Rockies and northern Plains will continue to push a slow moving upper closed low into the Lwr Mississippi Valley through the overnight period tonight. a weak cold front is expected to push through the region overnight coincident with a thin mid-level cloud deck. Upstream ridging should quickly push the moisture to the southeast later in the day on Wednesday.
924 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015 WEAK UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 19Z IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYER OF MID CLOUDS.
927 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR YET ANOTHER DAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE ENE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. WE MAY SEE ENOUGH WARMING ON WEDNESDAY TO GET A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE FL JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SW.
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. MEANWHILE, WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO THE GENERAL AIR MASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS. HOWEVER, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S(F) TO THE LOWER 80S(F). LOWS WILL BE BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S(F) TONIGHT WITH A FEW MID TO UPPER 40S(F) POSSIBLE IN WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. OWING TO A STRONG WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. COOLER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE WRN ATLC BUT WILL SHIFT SWD THROUGH MONDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE DRIFTING SWD INTO THE GOMEX AS WELL. LATEST IR IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE SE AROUND THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE. MOST OF THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT ISOLD SHOWERS WILL FORM NEAR THE E COAST ASSOCD WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DAYTIME HEATING SO INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH NOON TIME. HIGHS A BIT WARMER WITH WEAKER ELY FLOW AND RIDGING ALOFT. LOWS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PRIOR NIGHTS AS DEWPOINTS RISE A BIT. TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT 1-3 DEG WARMER DUE TO WEAKER FLOW AND WARMER 850 MB TEMPS.
Larger scale upper trof makes a quick exit to the northeast on Sunday morning, with areas drying out west to east through sunrise. Westerly flow behind the wave actually brings a nose of warmer air in aloft and boosts high temperatures on Sunday from the upper 70s to middle 80s. As the upper trough lifts northeast towards the Great Lakes region, a cold front surges southeast through the CWA Sunday evening. For northeast Kansas, expect sunny skies, gusty north winds, and cooler highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
345 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015 THE HIGHLY DYNAMIC UA LOW THAT HAS PROGRESSED NE TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 00 INCH ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS/. STILL APPEARS AN ACTIVE WEEK IS IN THE OFFING WITH SPLIT FLOW REMAINING OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE WEEK AND WITH THIS FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING A STEADY DIET OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS FORMING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THEIR SUBSEQUENT EJECTION EWD ONTO THE PLAINS.
BUT A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. 5C/KM AND RATHER UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS IN THE LOWER LAYERS THROUGH SUNDAY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS. PRECIPITATION LINGERS SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AS THE TROF AXIS AND SURFACE FRONT BOUNDARY SHIFT EASTWARD. LEADING TO COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
328 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WARMTH AND HUMIDITY.
NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER EASTERN MT. THERE WILL BE SOME SHALLOW INSTABILITY BUT NOT WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY PER MUCH COOLER SFC TEMPS. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BUT IT WOULD BE INTERESTING AS ARE NOW IN THE LATTER HALF OF MAY.
SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOWERS TO LINGER NORTH OF I-70. THE FLOW WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY EARLY MONDAY. A 110 KT JET WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND NOSE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE HIGH BASED WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS THAT FORM INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT OVER THE VALLEYS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE HIGH MOS POPS AND TREND OF ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS TO SPREAD SLIGHTLY MORE SHOWERS/T-STORMS OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE PREVIOUS MAX TEMP GRID WAS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE 00Z BLEND.
400 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP HUMIDITY OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE AREA MONDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING.
626 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE WASHING OUT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP SOUTHWEST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
325 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015 THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN KANSAS AND HAS PUSHED STORMS OFF INTO MISSOURI THIS MORNING. IT WILL TAKE THE NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY TO PULL THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT. ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
145 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOMORROW BRINGING SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.
AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE WEST COAST. AS A DISTURBANCE EJECTS FROM THE TROUGH AND MOVES ONSHORE MONDAY. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN.
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN KANSAS AND HAS PUSHED STORMS OFF INTO MISSOURI THIS MORNING. IT WILL TAKE THE NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY TO PULL THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT. ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
The tail end of a Canadian cold front has pushed over the Divide and is producing some gusty winds this morning across NW Montana, especially throughout the Flathead Valley. The windy conditions will persist throughout the day, though perhaps to a lesser extent during the afternoon with the cold front's influence diminishing as it moves into central Montana.
212 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MONDAY IS SHAPING UP AS A NICE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR EAST WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED. THE SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.
415 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015 UNSETTLED WEATHER PERSISTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48. AS UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING CONTINUED OVER THE WESTERN STATES. WEAK UPPER RIDGING WAS IN PLACE OVER THE SE STATES. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS. THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT DURING MONDAY WILL BRING LIKELY RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA.
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY.
400 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE WASHING OUT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP SOUTHWEST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
345 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 A WARM FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BY MID WEEK.
414 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015 RAINFALL IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE CWA AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW ENERGY BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATION COTEAU REGION OF NORTHEAST SD. WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OVER THE DAKOTAS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN U. AN UNORGANIZED UPPER LOW, CENTERED ROUGHLY NEAR 41N/130W EARLY THIS MORNING, WILL DRIFT TOWARDS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOIST UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
515 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015 LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE INTO THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS IOWA. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL U. AN UPPER LOW IS LIFTING OUT OF NEBRASKA AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING WHILE AT THE SURFACE. LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA BEFORE SHIFTING EAST. PRESENTLY STORMS THAT HAVE FIRED ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A DRY SLOT AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST/NORTHEAST BUT STORMS MAY RE-FIRE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN IOWA. COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL U.
WITH DEEPENING MID AND UPPER RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OF THAT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. LATEST IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WIT MARINA AND LAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 300 AM DETAIL THE 1027 MB CENTER OF STALWART HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 33N 75W. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING IN THE FIRST PARAGRAPH. TEMPERATURES OVER THE ISLANDS AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. MID AND UPPER RIDGING WILL LIMIT LOWER TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN INTO TWO WEAKER RIDGES ON OPPOSITE SIDES OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT.
346 AM PDT SUN MAY 17 2015 A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CA COAST MONDAY. SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS A HIGHER BAND OF PW NEAR ONE INCH WITH THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST. THINK CONVECTIVE STORM WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE WITH THE HIGHER PW MOISTURE. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE SIERRA MONDAY NIGHT AND ANY STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE.
420 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BEGIN LATE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY.
THEN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA IS FORECAST TO DRIFT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY. WITH COLD FRONT ROTATING SOUTHEAST ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM ENTERING NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER THIS MORNING AND TO INTERSTATE 80 LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL STILL BE REALIZED IN OUR NORTH GIVEN PROXIMITY TO UPPER LOW/COLD POOL. AND MODELS SUGGEST SURFACE BASED CAPES WILL TOP 1000 J/KG AT 21Z WHEN DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WILL BE PRESENT ALONG FRONTAL ZONE. STILL THINK AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS COULD FIRE NEAR COLD FRONT LATER TODAY. 850 TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY DROP BELOW 0C IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FOR A TIME MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SOME REBOUND AS CORE OF UPPER LOW SLIDES NORTHEAST.
AS AN UPPER LOW TRANSLATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND WYOMING.
SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH WESTERN CANADA RIDGE HOLDING SWAY. WHILE REVOLVING UPPER LOWS DROP INTO SOUTHWEST U.
AND HAVE IT MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. TREND FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WX TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HRS UNTIL UPPER LOW OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY BEGINS TO LIFT NE INTO THE PLAINS REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE TRENDED PRECIP POTENTIAL DOWN FROM SW TO NE TO COINCIDE WITH SAID MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW TO OUR SW. SO PLAN FOR ONLY MORNING MENTION OF PRECIP BEFORE ENDING AS MODELS SHIFT IN H5 RIDGE FOR BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING. CLOUD COVER AND COOLER AIR ON BACKSIDE OF SYSTEM WILL GIVE THE CWA A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS FROM THE U60S NORTH AND WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. MODELS BRING BACK H5 RIDGE OVER THE REGION.
A BROAD LARGE SCALE MEAN TROUGH POSITION REMAINS IN PLACE OVER WESTERN REGION. IT'S ACTUALLY DIRTYING UP THE BASE OF A HIGHER LATITUDE RIDGE IN AN UNUSUALLY LATE SEASON SOUTHERN SPLIT THAT JUST WON'T END.
GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS FROM 1. IT WILL WARM UP FROM MONDAY AND SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
445 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA STARTING TO LIFT NORTHWARD. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TODAY. THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE SOME TIME TO DRY OUT TODAY AND MOST OF MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC MOVES INLAND AND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY WITH SOME DISTINCT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. 00Z GFS/ECMWF QUITE A BIT FASTER WITH A STRONGER GRADIENT WIND AND HAVE SIDED MORE WITH THAT SOLUTION AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE 07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE UPPER LOW COMING INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ANOTHER SURFACE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. TEMPERATURES WITH THAT FEATURE WERE QUITE COLD RANGING FROM NEAR 20 NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HIGH TO THE UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN ALBERTA ON THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE HIGH. AS THE CYCLONE MAKES ITS WAY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. MONDAY HOWEVER WILL START OUT DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES DOWN THE WESTERN PLAINS. COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL SE OF THE AREA WITH HIGHS BELOW NORMAL FOR MID MAY.
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA SOUTHWARD INTO EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO. WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH, THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR SHOULD BE MOVING BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
Deep mixing into these temperatures should lead to highs in the low to mid 80s. The cold front will then move through late in the evening and then temperatures and dewpoints will drop with much more comfortable conditions expected Monday.
500 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. UPPER LOW LIFTING THROUGH NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO KICK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS, OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING, WILL WOBBLE ONTO THE COAST TODAY, CENTERING NEAR SAN FRANCISCO BY 5 PM.
SOMEWHAT IMPROVING METEOROLOGICAL CONDITION DURING THE SHORT-TERM(ESPECIALLY SUNDAY) AS CLOSED UPPER LOW EXITS EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT WITH PRIMARY METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES BEING TEMPERATURES. PV ANALYSIS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS BY 06Z SUNDAY AND THEN INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 18Z SUNDAY. INITIAL WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING. SECONDARY AND STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER TODAY RESULTING IN MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND REACHING THE WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.