Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
548 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 High pressure should maintain dry weather through part of today. Rain is expected to return with a late in the day and this evening with a cold front. The wave and and associated cold front are progged to cross the Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley area late this afternoon and evening, returning showers to the area. After the initial wave and cold front exit, an upper trough is progged to approach the area late tonight, maintaining rain and possible snow shower chances. The upper trough is expected to cross the Lower Great Lakes/Upper OH Valley regions Thursday. Maintained rain and snow shower chances, with the highest POPs confined N of I 80 where some limited lake enhancement is possible.
359 AM MST Wed Nov 15 2017 09z surface analysis had low pressure over northern MN with main cold front into western OK and secondary trough into northwest SD. Band of ST just behind the trough will affect far northwest SD this morning. Water vapour had upper trough east of the CWA with upper ridge building over the Rockies toward the CWA. Thursday, upper ridge moves into the northern Plains with thermal ridge peaking over the CWA.
In the middle and upper level(700-200 mb), latest satellite imagery overlaid with model streamline analysis as of 900 am continues to depict a broadly cyclonic across the Eastern half of the CONUS, with generally low amplitude ridging across the Western CONUS. At the surface and in the lower to middle levels, (Surface to 700 mb), latest satellite imagery overlaid with marine and land surface analysis as of 900 am, show a 1025-1030 mb surface anticyclone positioned from Northern Maine to South Carolina. But as it does, drier air will mix down into the lower to middle levels (700-900 mb) scouring out any showers that try to move across the islands from the NNE.
641 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 A cold front will bring widespread showers today with highs generally in the mid to upper 40s. This will be followed by cooler and mainly cloudy conditions into Thursday.
700 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017 Added freezing drizzle/snow mix to the northeast zones for the morning. Fog loop indicated breaks in the low clouds over parts of central and western ND and in southern MAN. An upper level ridge will be centered over the Upper Mississippi River Valley on Thursday night, drifting east across the Great Lakes region. Models hint at warmer temps aloft with this feature, which may result in sleet or freezing rain across northeast ND. If it was snow it might be and inch or two but if it's freezing rain or sleet, it could be a big problem. As the upper level trough passes.
625 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017 A cold front moved across Minnesota overnight, and was in western Wisconsin during the pre dawn hours. Only the far eastern part remained under the lower clouds and some fog. No much change overnight as winds become lighter as high pressure moves overhead.
Our next best rain chances are still progged for Sat with the pas- sage of a strong cold front. Much cooler/drier weather expected in the wake of the front, with perhaps some Fire Weather issues on Sun (see below). 41 Relatively light winds on tap for a few days as high pressure over Louisiana moves eastward and weak front sags southward into the state tonight/Thursday.
/issued 513 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017/ 12Z TAF issuance Dense fog is developing ahead of a cold front that is beginning to enter the Permian Basin. /issued 334 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017/ Upper ridge centered over Baja with axis extending north into Canada as an upper trough off the NW Coast slowly moves ashore today and Thursday. This ridge will build over Central Mexico and remain there so not expecting any big changes in the pattern. This trough will eventually pass across the plains and push a front through the area.
542 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017 Cold front has made its way through all three terminals and gusty northerly winds are expected to continue for much of the day. As of 09Z the cold front had reached the South Plains and should clear the CWA by late morning.
Tonight the low level northeast to north flow combined with trapped moisture under the inversion will likely lead to some low clouds.
917 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 High pressure will remain to the North Today, with continued onshore flow.
847 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 High pressure should maintain dry weather through part of today. Rain is expected to return with a late in the day and this evening with a cold front. The wave and and associated cold front are progged to cross the Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley area late this afternoon and evening, returning showers to the area. After the initial wave and cold front exit, an upper trough is progged to approach the area late tonight, maintaining rain and possible snow shower chances. The upper trough is expected to cross the Lower Great Lakes/Upper OH Valley regions Thursday. Maintained rain and snow shower chances, with the highest POPs confined N of I 80 where some limited lake enhancement is possible.
SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): Mid-level high pressure will remain over Baja California with northwest flow over South Texas, keeping mostly warm and dry conditions across the area.
Today the upper level flow will become southwesterly as the ridge axis moves to the east. But the snow level will remain relatively high during the onset of precipitation, so snow will be confined mainly to the higher terrain. Yet another strong cold front will push through the Northern Rockies on Thursday bringing gusty southerly winds ahead of the front in the Riggins/Hells Canyon northward into the Camas Prairie of Idaho early Thursday morning. A burst precipitation is expected to accompany the cold front along its leading edge.
436 AM MST Wed Nov 15 2017 The persistence that has prevailed over the forecast area the past couple of days has changed as a cold front pushed through the northern plains earlier this evening. As a result, today's highs will be cooler and drier than yesterday leaving us in the 50s across our CWA.
Fog should rapidly dissipate by mid morning, with a mix of clouds and sun expected for much of the day as temperatures warm into the mid/upper 70s within thermal ridge ahead of the aforementioned front. The front itself is progged to stall just N of the forecast area as the upper trof translates through the ERN CONUS today and tonight, though some semblance of the weakening SFC boundary may settle/backdoor into the area on THU. Much cooler and drier airmass to build in behind the front, with temperatures near/below seasonal normals for SUN through mid week.
505 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 High pressure will move off the New England coast today.
620 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 High pressure centered over the region will move away from the area today as a weak cold front approaches from the west.
Northerly flow over land had tapped some lower theta e air to our north and most of the area was experiencing cooler conditions compared to 24 hours ago. The models indicate the highest moisture lingering across the south, so will show 40 POPs there and taper to 20 percent along the north coast. High pressure over the southeast states will gradually weaken through tonight, but a weak inverted trough near the west edge of the Gulf Stream will keep the local pressure gradient tight enough to support 15-20 knot north/northeast winds.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 46 64 38 / 10 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 42 59 35 / 20 20 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 57 44 60 35 / 20 30 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 40 57 31 / 10 40 10 0.
A cold front will move through the area late this morning into the afternoon hours, resulting in north winds of 10 to 15 knots, with higher gusts. A weak cold front currently across the South Plains will approach the Big Country in the next few hours, the Concho Valley by mid morning, then move through the Interstate 10 corridor early this afternoon. Slightly cooler temperatures and gusty north winds of 10 to 15 mph can be expected behind the front.
IFR conditions will be seen at most terminals with low stratus and areas of drizzle near and immediately behind cold front that will progress over the region.
High pressure nosing out of Canada into the northern plains this morning. A band of low cloud is stretched across northeast Montana on the edge of this high. Ridge building across the northern Rockies will begin to push east today, but cold air will linger, especially in the far northeast. Upper trof off the Pacific coast moves east tonight, with frontal system lifting across eastern Montana on Thursday.
546 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017 Broad ridging within zonal flow will help bring the sun out with seasonably warm temperatures. Highs should be in the lower to mid 50s, despite the cold front passage from last night.
At the surface, cold front stretches from northern IA into southeast Nebraska and finally into the TX Panhandle. This activity should be pushing out of southeast KS by sunrise as the cold front continues to plunge south. Zonal upper pattern will quickly set back up over the Rockies/Plains for Thu which will allow lee troughing to deepen. A strong cold front is expected to move through Fri night with the front expected to mostly move through dry with the better precip chances staying east of the area. Will start a slow warmup by Sun as lee troughing sets up some downslope. MVFR and IFR conditions will exit southeast Kansas by mid-morning this morning, as a cold front slices southeast across the area. Clear/sunny skies and breezy north to northwest winds will prevail in wake of the cold front.
1038 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 Southerly wind will increase over the Ohio Valley as high pressure moves east and away from the region. An area of rain will spread into the region from the west this afternoon ahead of a cold front that will cross this evening. An axis of high pressure behind this front will cross the region from west to east Thursday night.
439 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017 Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead of a cold front will continue to push east and outside of the CWA early Wednesday as the boundary makes a steady push southeastward.
1039 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 Surface cold front remains out to the west of the region and is moving eastward. Highs out west will top out in the lower 50s, but areas out toward the I-75 corridor may warm into the mid-upper 50s before the rain moves in. Main player today is a progressive upper trof over the Upper Midwest, and a cold front currently trailing along the I-35 corridor from Minnesota to Kansas. Expect precip to blossom ahead of the cold front in the next few hrs, with numerous showers spreading eastward to reach the I-65 corridor by midday and the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland early to mid afternoon. Quiet weather and below normal temps will follow late Wednesday night and Thursday as high pressure builds through the Great Lakes.
Southerly winds have kept the low-levels a little better mixed than previously anticipated. As a cold front moves in from the north, cigs will lift and scatter to VFR by early afternoon. A shallow upper trough moving through the Midwest will send a weak cold front that is expected to wash out over South Central TX by tonight. A weak inverted trough extending from the Rio Grande Plains into Central TX should keep the I-35 Corridor in the warm and moist sector through the period although the relative weak pressure gradient could lead to an occasional NEly surface wind this evening.
Weak cold front should be washing through during these hours as well, but slow transitions into new air mass.
Some lower visibilities forming within lighter wind regime of trough axis ahead of primary cold front/wind shift. South/southwest winds easing with trough axis approaching. After passage of cold front still expecting northwest winds to ramp up and become gusty. The highs for today will mostly occur by late morning, with cold air advection in the wake of the cold front pushing temps down in the afternoon, especially northwest of Madison. We'll be in the pressure gradient between the departing trough and the approaching high from the northwest. Forecast confidence is high: High pressure will bring sunshine back to southern Wisconsin on Thursday. Temps will be back down to below normal with a cooler airmass in the wake of the departed low pressure system. Breezy winds in the morning will ease for the afternoon with the high moving overhead.
538 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018 As the upper level low that has been dominating the synoptic pattern across mid-America for the past couple of days exits Kansas to the east and makes its way across the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys tonight and tomorrow, the tightened pressure gradient will begin to ease off this evening bringing wind speeds back down overnight tonight. Over the next few days, expect a gradual warming trend as an upper ridge pattern sets up across the western half of the CONUS through the middle of the week.
There may be some thinning of the cirrus ovenight and Tuesday morning but with a broad trough over the Pacific the streaming high clouds will likely dim Tuesday sunshine at times and may even thicken more than expected. /issued 242 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): Tonight, the arrival of drier air and thinning high clouds behind a Monday morning cold front will allow temperatures to cool into the mid 40s to lower 50s. Slightly cooler weather will continue on Tuesday, with high temps from the upper 60s to near 70 degrees.
A ridge of high pressure will build back into the region Tuesday and a lee-side trough will re-develop along the Mountain foothills overnight.
828 PM MST Mon Jan 22 2018 Update: Weak cold front is bring some mid and high clouds to the forecast area this evening. With breaks in the clouds expected at times overnight and light winds, expect colder temperatures in low lying areas than nearby ridges. Forrester previous forecast discussion: Overall, the forecast is very benign with slightly warmer temperatures and dry conditions expected through the middle of the week.
The associated cold front has pushed through most of the area. Temps this afternoon are mostly in the lower 60s.
A deep area of low pressure will continue to slowly rotate east- northeast toward the Great Lakes region tonight into Tue. Temperatures Tue/Wed time frame will return to more seasonal values as a chilly high pressure system pushes into the Plains.
840 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 Low pressure will track northeast through the Great Lakes tonight through Tuesday, forcing a cold front east across the area.
Low pressure will move into the Great Lakes tonight, bringing additional chances for showers to the area into Tuesday.
453 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018 Impressive upper level low on water vapor rotating northeast into Iowa.
722 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 A potent area of low pressure moving across the Great Lakes will push a trailing cold front through the Commonwealth on Tuesday.
The WAA countered the cooler air wrapping around the occluded system. Not much in the way of surface based instability, but the upper low provided enough vertical motion to start shower/thunderstorm development. As colder air moves in with proximity to the low center, expect a change over to snow or a rain/snow mix. Ground temperatures have been relatively warm, and considering the surface temperatures are lingering just over the freezing mark, not much in the way of accumulation is expected. Tomorrow, temperatures much cooler as the winds come around to more northerly behind the low exiting to the NE. Behind that wave, high pressure ridge slips eastward, starting another warm advection pattern through the end of the week.
530 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018 For the ArkLaTex, some VFR stratocu deck just N of KTXK with the upper low over MO/IL and then some cirrus along the Gulf coast with SKC overhead for us. /issued 238 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018/ Pacific high pressure rebuilding across the region has allowed for an enhanced pressure gradient and west winds around 20 mph with higher gusts. Temperatures overnight to fall into the 30s areawide with most areas remaining above freezing.
A deep low pressure system will track from northern Missouri toward the Great Lakes region tonight and Tuesday. Vorticity lobes wrapping around the upper low within a deep cyclonic flow as well as the passage of a true cold front pushing across the Ozarks region will bring light precipitation mainly to central Missouri through this evening. This light rain could become mixed with or change to a light wintry mix of rain, snow and possibly freezing drizzle later this evening before the precipitation ends. A chilly and continued blustery conditions are in store for Tuesday as the low pressure system pulls away. A warming trend will return mid to late week as an upper level ridge builds eastward and southerly winds return.
603 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018 Winter storm starting to wind down over the area at 20Z as upper low over northern Missouri tracks toward western Illinois. Rest of the period looks quiet weatherwise with a warming trend through the work week as upper ridge moves into the region.
710 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 Upper low and better short wave energy lifting north and east of the state as we head into the evening. Still expecting a fairly sharp cold front and associated low-level lift to sweep through tonight. Cold front should be exiting the forecast area early Tuesday morning taking the precipitation with it.
903 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018 Upper low located over northeast Missouri continues to move to the east/northeast at this time. Radar has been indicating some possible flurries or even some ice pellets across southern Missouri but the past several hours but returns continue to decrease as the upper low pulls out. Upper level low pressure will continue to move across central Missouri this evening with moisture sweeping around the departing low. Ceilings will remain VFR but on the low side and may actually briefly become MVFR for the northern terminals. West to northwest winds will remain gusty across the north in the vicinity of the upper low through the period but will gradually decrease with time for the remainder of the TAF sites.
It appears that cu field in association with the upper trough will remain well north of our region and thin cirrus will remain mostly south of our region thus there is not much to effect temperatures falling to forecast mins except for the wind. /issued 530 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018/ For the ArkLaTex, some VFR stratocu deck just N of KTXK with the upper low over MO/IL and then some cirrus along the Gulf coast with SKC overhead for us.
The cold front is nearing the I-65 corridor at this hour, with dew points falling into the 40s in NW AL, and will soon be in the 30s. During the period from Tuesday-Tuesday night, short term guidance from a consensus of the global models indicates that the mid-level cyclone will continue to accelerate northeastward through the eastern Great Lakes and northern New England while opening into a wave as it phases with a stronger vort max over Ontario/Quebec. The trough axis trailing west-southwestward from this feature and an associated low- level thermal trough will support a southward surge of stratocumulus clouds after sunrise tomorrow, which will likely work in conjunction with moderate west-northwest flow to keep highs in the m40s north to l50s south.
618 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 MFR conditions at CHA will continue until late tonight ahead of cold front then progress to TYS late tonight.
835 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 A cold front will cross the area on Tuesday.
Cold front moved through this morning with a moderate northerly flow. This led to some elevated fire danger conditions this afternoon, but this should subside over the next couple of hours as high pressure begins to build over the region. The ridge really settles in by Tuesday and Tuesday night with mainly clear skies (aside from some thin upper level cirrus).
554 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018 Water vapor imagery showing upper low drifting slowly e-ne across northeast MO this afternoon. Trimmed the highs for Tuesday over the expected heavy snow area over south central MN into western WI.
/BB/ Tonight through Tuesday: Latest rap and satellite analysis showed the upper trough moving into the Mississippi Valley from the Plains. The cold front was tracking across our eastern counties with the rain east of the forecast area. For the period expect quiet conditions as the upper trough axis exits to the east as we get into a zonal flow pattern on Tuesday.
708 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 Unseasonably warm conditions are expected until the passage of a cold front tonight. Line of showers associated with a wave out ahead of the cold front will slowly make progress toward the region.
854 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 A wave of energy will move Northeast out of the Gulf Tonight ahead of an approaching cold front.
The strong low pressure system that brought snow and wind to north central Nebraska will continue to push east tonight. Expect low temperatures to drop into the low to mid teens. Meanwhile, high pressure will slowly build southward into the central Plains bringing a return to drier and quieter weather.
637 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 A low pressure system will move into the region bringing continued chances for scattered showers into tonight and Tuesday.
821 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 Trimmed PoPs across our western areas as HRRR and other Hi-Res models shifting the highest chances east and current radar reflects this. Cold front upstream will make it across most of the CWA by dawn. At 1 pm EST a surface cold front extended southward through eastern MS, southeast LA, and into the western Gulf of Mexico from a 995 mb low centered over IA. However, lows in the upper 40s are expected in southeast AL and the western FL Panhandle, where the cold front will have moved through before daybreak. Ahead of the front, areas of fog will be possible, mainly between the time when the rain ends and the cold front arrives.
30 inches across the region behind last night's cold front. Elevated fire weather conditions will continue through sunset before diminishing as surface ridging spreads farther west from the Texas Caprock. A few locations may briefly reach freezing around sunrise. After a cool start, temperatures will warm into the low to mid 60s on Tuesday under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies.
/issued 242 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): Tonight, the arrival of drier air and thinning high clouds behind a Monday morning cold front will allow temperatures to cool into the mid 40s to lower 50s. Slightly cooler weather will continue on Tuesday, with high temps from the upper 60s to near 70 degrees.
919 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 Strong southerly moist flow continues out ahead of cold front now located over south central KY and middle TN at mid evening. Chattanooga Airport, TN 40 49 32 51 / 60 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 41 47 32 45 / 70 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 40 47 32 46 / 60 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 39 47 29 43 / 70 20 20 10 TN.
High pressure over west Texas will build down towards the Hill Country tonight allowing for light/calm northelry winds. Elevated fire weather conditions will continue through sunset before diminishing as surface ridging spreads farther west from the Texas Caprock. A few locations may briefly reach freezing around sunrise. After a cool start, temperatures will warm into the low to mid 60s on Tuesday under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies.
834 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 A low pressure system will move into the region bringing continued chances for scattered showers into tonight and Tuesday.
1040 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 Large scale ascent will support a large area of rain to spread east from the Gulf of Mexico well ahead of a cold front. The prospect for thunder is low - focused on the Gulf Coast - but have maintained it in the forecast with the highest PoPs across the north. (modified) Warm S/SW flow will continue over much of central FL during the morning as the cold front slowly works its way into central FL during the afternoon. The low lvl instability will combine with PWat values btwn 1. High pres ridge centered just SW of Bermuda will drift seaward in advance of a cold front currently pushing acrs the Lwr MS Valley.