Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Strong low pressure system being observed on IR satellite imagery off the PACNW coast this morning. Another low pressure area seen along the Utah/Colorado border area while Wyoming remains under an area of high pressure. Low pressure moves onshore over Washington State this evening and overnight.
The cold front should arrive shortly after sunrise tomorrow (Thursday) morning over far NW AL with precipitation expected to be non-existent given the dry profile. The increased cloud cover will likely cause warmer overnight temperatures with low to mid 50s expected by early Friday morning. Friday night, as a short wave trough moves into the region, precip chances increase and spread across the forecast area.
These had originally formed along a cold front that was dropping E/SE through the central US. Expect a gradual increase in cloud cover tonight through Friday morning, which should help to keep temps a bit warmer overnight tonight (mid/upper 50s).
Enough moisture should remain today for the possibility of isolated showers along and east of the Highway 281/ Interstate 69C corridor and adjacent coastal waters, and isolated convective cells over the far Gulf of Mexico waters tonight.
High pressure will build over the area bringing cool temperatures initially and dry weather.
Northwest Montana, the MT/ID border, and the Clearwater Mountain region of north- central Idaho are still on track to receive 1-2 inches of liquid precipitation with locally higher amounts in the high terrain.
320 AM CDT THU OCT 13 2016 Warmer through the rest of the work week as an area of high pressure over the mid-Mississippi river valley builds east towards the lower Great Lakes region, resulting in warm southwest flow across the upper Midwest. Highs in the mid 40s (tip of the MN Arrowhead) to low 50s (north-central MN) today, warmer Friday in the mid 50s to near 60. However, as the low-mid level ridge axis moves east across Minnesota into Wisconsin this morning the drier air will build eastwards resulting in sunny skies by mid morning.
A cooler airmass had settled across the area in the wake of the cold front that pushed well to the south early this morning. A northerly wind and lingering cloud cover will keep highs today generally in the lower 60s.
325 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016 Latest 08z surface analysis indicates high pressure centered over eastern Nebraska and much of Iowa. Temperatures have fallen into the lower to middle 40s across the forecast area.
615 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 Showers are expected with a cold front this morning before high pressure returns dry weather to the region to end the week. The predawn update featured some minor adjustments to PoP timing and temperature trend, but overall package is on track A cold front is progged for approach and passage this morning. Building high pressure should result in clearing skies tonight.
An approaching cold front will tighten the pressure gradient allowing these gusty winds to form Friday afternoon.
Friday morning lows will be in the lower to mid 40s.
A broad area of high pressure extending over the east coast will keep a northeast wind flow over the area and mostly dry conditions overnight. Moderately strong high pressure will keep a tight gradient over the waters producing evening surges and gusty winds this afternoon into tonight creating SCA conditions over outer offshore waters and SCEC over the near shore waters through tonight. Light-moderate NE-E winds and seas for this weekend as high pressure remains N of the region.
410 AM MDT Thu Oct 13 2016 Upper level analysis has trof moving through the Great Lakes region, and ridge building across the Central and Northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure resides across Iowa with a weak lee trof across central Montana into eastern Wyoming. Upper ridge will continue to build across the Rocky Mountains and into the Northern Plains. Upper ridge remains across the area, with mostly clear skies expected. Upper ridge axis begins to shift east of the area as a strong trof moves into the Pacific Northwest.
00z RAOB data over Deep South TX sampled the strong upper high poised to expand northward through the Southern Plains this weekend.
Dry air is seen over the region as moisture streams over the top of a ridge acrs nrn Mexico. At the sfc, a cold front extends fm cntl AR swwd toward cntl TX. Ahead of the front, winds are nearly calm acrs the area courtesy of weak ridging, and combined with mostly clr skies, are allowing for the development of areas of fog. The front will meander and weaken over N LA through Friday, allowing for a reinforcing ridge of high pres to build south.
An approaching short wave trough should provide sufficient ascent for widespread showers to develop across western Oklahoma/western north Texas this morning. The highest probabilities for rain appear to be near I-40 and southward, where the greatest ascent is progged with the wave. Showers/isolated thunder are expected to continue tonight into early Friday as a second short wave trough approaches from the northwest.
500 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 850mb temps are currently around -6C with NW to W low level flow as SFC ridging is moving in from the west. Most of the precip is rain, with potential for some snow mixing in as a few showers move over the higher terrain of the west half. With winds turning more westerly and a ridge coming in, expected isolated lake effect rain shower across the Keweenaw into this afternoon and isolated to scattered showers over far northeastern Upper MI into early this evening. Friday, increasing southerly winds on the backside of high pressure sliding into the Eastern Great Lakes and mid level ridging will bring a warming trend with highs into the mid to upper 50s under mostly sunny skies.
Friday, ridging will build into the region and winds will remain Southerly.
223 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 A cold front crosses today. High pressure passes Friday.
259 AM CDT THU OCT 13 2016 Clear skies and light winds have led to temperatures falling below freezing in many locations this morning and others still approaching the freezing mark. Subjective 00Z upper-air analysis indicates upper- level trough across the western Great Lakes, with upper low also beginning to lower heights in the Pacific Northwest. Cold front at 850mb extended from low near Hudson Bay through MI/IL/MO/OK and into southwest TX.
It will be a little warmer and less cloudy today through Friday.
High pressure in the middle layers of the atmosphere will produce mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with only extremely isolated showers during the daylight hours today (not included in the TAFs due to the isolated nature of the convection). Enough moisture should remain today for the possibility of isolated showers along and east of the Highway 281/ Interstate 69C corridor and adjacent coastal waters, and isolated convective cells over the far Gulf of Mexico waters tonight.
temps have bounced and are 2-4F off the lows. A low pres system will move onshore into the NW USA tonight with a warm front forming over MT/SD and surging N. This area of low clouds is fcst to circulate N as the high departs to the E per the 18Z/00Z NAM and GFS.
638 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 A cold front is currently pushing through the area bringing some showers and cooler weather to the region. High pressure will build in to the region this afternoon providing dry weather and cooler temperatures. Surface cold front has just pushed south of Interstate 71 this morning with weak showers out ahead. Given these cooler low level temperatures moving in, some areas likely have already seen their high temperature for the day.
With high pressure to the east, southerly flow to maintain warm conditions with high temperatures in the mid 80s and low temperatures around 70.
210 AM MDT Thu Oct 13 2016 19Z Water vapor imagery RAP analysis indicated strong short wave trough moving across MN and IA forcing strong cold front into central TX and eastern OK. The cooler temps will minimize the fire wx threat even with the stronger winds.
643 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 Much cooler and drier air will filter into the area early this morning.
A cold front will move into the CWA today and weaken as it does. Max temps continue to run about 1 to 3 degrees warmer than MOS guidance with min temps running 1 to 2 degrees cooler. strong wedge of high pressure still firmly entrenched down the Appalachians into Georgia.
142 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 Much cooler and drier air will filter into the area early this morning.
/Today/ High pressure to remain in control of the weather pattern today and provide plenty of sunshine, light winds, and cool temperatures. Leaned slightly warmer than adjusted ECMWF and adjusted MAV MOS guidance for highs today as they had a decent handle on current temperature trends.
Early this morning, a cold front extends from TOL to IND to near PAH. Cloud cover and much cooler temperatures will be the main event across the region today as overcast to mostly cloudy conditions will prevail into the mid afternoon. Temperatures today will remain in the mid 60s for much of the area, with slightly warmer readings south, but breaking into the 70s will be a struggle thanks to the cloud cover. Skies will begin clearing from northwest to southeast around 19-21Z as cool Canadian high pressure moves in.
A low pres system will move onshore into the NW USA tonight with a warm front forming over MT/SD and surging N.
A low amplitude ridge will prevail over the region today.
356 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 A cold front is currently pushing through the area bringing some showers and cooler weather to the region. High pressure will build in to the region this afternoon providing dry weather and cooler temperatures. Surface cold front has just pushed south of Interstate 71 this morning with weak showers out ahead. Given these cooler low level temperatures moving in, some areas likely have already seen their high temperature for the day.
258 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016 Quiet weather is expected today with an upper level ridge pushing in.
1113 PM MDT Wed Oct 12 2016 Water vapor imagery shows upper trough now crossing the cntrl CONUS with upper ridging building over the Pac NW. Clear skies will continue tonight and Thursday as high pressure remains in control along with upper ridging. Return flow will set up on the backside of the high tonight into Thursday. This will bring slightly warmer temps to the area tonight with lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s.
412 AM CDT THU OCT 13 2016 (Today and Tonight) Cold front has sagged just south of the area early this morning, with all observations showing a light north wind.
321 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 Showers are expected with a cold front this morning before high pressure returns dry weather to the region to end the week. A cold front is progged for approach and passage this morning. Building high pressure should result in clearing skies tonight.
But a ridge axis does extend northward through North Dakota to another high pressure center over Saskatchewan by Thursday morning. Have lowered temperatures into the lower to middle 20s most areas given the expected good radiational cooling conditions. Current surface analysis places high over the northern into the central plains, while cold front stretches from the midwest into the southern plains. Upper level analysis places trough pushing into the midwest with ridge building over the Northern Rockies. skies will continue to gradually clear out as aforementioned ridge gradually broadens out towards the east. quiet weather with warming temperatures expected as ridge continues to develop into the area. Ridge continues to broaden out on Friday bringing a return to above average temperatures. With some question on the timing of the disturbances, will keep precipitation chances on the low side.
503 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 850mb temps are currently around -6C with NW to W low level flow as SFC ridging is moving in from the west. Most of the precip is rain, with potential for some snow mixing in as a few showers move over the higher terrain of the west half. With winds turning more westerly and a ridge coming in, expected isolated lake effect rain shower across the Keweenaw into this afternoon and isolated to scattered showers over far northeastern Upper MI into early this evening. As the ridge AK ridge retrogrades to the west and the ne Pacific trough develops toward AK, downstream a ridge will move into the west with a trough into the cntrl CONUS.
A cold front is moving south in Central Texas and this front should push through AUS before stalling this morning. A cold front should manage to move across AUS around 12Z and given drier air in the low-levels and some mixing, cigs and vsbys should increase into low end MVFR. A weak cold front pushing down across central Texas is expected to drop to the Hill Country late tonight. Due to cloud coverage across the Hill Country on Thursday, highs may only get to the lower 80s while rest of the area gets into the mid 80s to near 90.
A short wave trough currently moving through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions is propelling a surface cold front east out ahead of it. Temperatures across our area vary from the low to mid 60s where light southwest winds and plenty of cloud cover are in place, to the upper 40s in a few sheltered valleys that have decoupled and remained under a thinner veil of clouds. These showers will dry up by this afternoon, as high pressure builds in across the Ohio Valley. Highs will be cooler today, ranging from the mid 60s north, to the lower 70s south.
Tonight Through Thursday West flow aloft with high pressure will be over the west tonight and Thursday with warmer temperatures. Winds will pick up Thursday afternoon and shift to the southwest ahead of an incoming Pacific low pressure trough.
Mostly clear skies will continue through Thursday night with weak high pressure over the area. As large scale trough off west coast strengthens, wind on Friday will shift to southwest, and cloudiness will increase Friday into Friday night.
342 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 A cold front will move into the area from the west today, spreading showers across the region this evening. The front will move offshore tonight, ushering in cooler air for Friday and through the weekend.
Clouds lingered from southern Wisconsin through northern Illinois, which helped hold temperatures in the low to mid 40s. Areas from Independence to Monticello were the coldest, with temps around the freezing mark through 2 am CDT. Some areas in the northwest may be slightly warmer than the current forecast lows of 30 to 32, but right now there is nothing to justify any changes in the frost/freeze headlines. For tonight, expect a few more high clouds and another chilly night, albeit slightly warmer than this morning. Friday: Return flow around departing high pressure will bring southerly winds and mostly sunny skies to the cwa. This will allow for a warmer day with highs in the mid to upper 60s.
344 AM EDT THU OCT 13 2016 Northwest flow has developed in the wake of the strong trough now sweeping through southern Ontario. This will enhance the low level inversion which leads to questions in cloud cover today.
343 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 A showery cold front will cross west to east across the region today. Behind the front, drier and cooler weather will follow tonight through the start of the weekend.
On Friday, ridging will attempt to strengthen in the upper levels to the southwest of Arkansas, and this will force the remnants of the stalled surface boundary back to the north, and any lingering precipitation should clear out.
307 AM CDT THU OCT 13 2016 Precipitation will continue to diminish from the north and west early this morning with the passage of a cold front. High pressure at the surface and slightly rising heights aloft should keep the region dry today, this evening, and through most of the overnight hours. Late tonight/early Friday morning a short wave moving eastward out of the southern plains will tap into moist southerly flow on the back side of the high pressure and create overrunning precipitation across the far western sections of our CWA.
352 AM CDT THU OCT 13 2016 Very quiet weather for the next 24 hours as high pressure slides east across the region. High pressure will slide east Friday as cyclogenesis over the northern Rockies results in a low pressure system tracking across southern Canada Friday night. Broad, strong southerly flow throughout the boundary layer up to the mid levels will bring warmer and more humid air northward to the Upper Midwest this weekend. It may be a bit warmer than currently forecast depending how deep we do mix.
151 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 Dry and cool high pressure will remain in the forecast area through the overnight. A cold front will approach from the northwest Thursday. High pressure will ridge into the area from the north behind the front over the weekend. The surface pressure ridge will remain in the forecast area through the overnight. Aloft, broad troughing will be over the area. A cold front just west of the Appalachian region Thursday morning will gradually push southeastward through the day and cross the forecast area Thursday night. Cooler temperatures are expected in the wake of the front with highs in the 70s for Friday afternoon.
633 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 A cold front will cross the region this evening. A large area of high pressure will build across the northern Mid-Atlantic Friday and settle over the central Mid-Atlantic through the weekend. Mid level clouds are spreading east from the Blue Ridge this morning and should allow dissipation through sunrise. The cold front will reach the Allegheny Highlands just after sunrise with showers diminishing east of the Allegheny Front. About a tenth inch QPF for areas like Frostburg, then just scattered to isolated showers east to the Blue Ridge. Perhaps some afternoon showers in NErn MD, otherwise dry east of the Blue Ridge.
604 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 A cold front will pass through the commonwealth during the morning and midday hours.
Upper ridge will move across Montana today with dry weather and warmer temperatures. Flow aloft turns to the southwest tonight and Friday as an upper trough moves inland over the Pacific NW. A wave in the SW flow aloft on Friday will bring a cold front through the area during the day.
400 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 A cold front will cross the region this evening. A large area of high pressure will build in behind the front Friday and persist through the weekend. The cold front will reach the Allegheny Highlands just after sunrise with showers diminishing east of the Allegheny Front. About a tenth inch QPF for areas like Frostburg, then just scattered to isolated showers east to the Blue Ridge. Perhaps some afternoon showers in NErn MD, otherwise dry east of the Blue Ridge.
Late tonight through Friday, a weak reinforcing cold front will shift southward into the northern Gulf of Mexico. This will allow high pressure to our north to intensify with continuing east to northeast low level flow. Slightly cooler temperatures may occur along the Nature Coast Friday morning as drier air settles in.
A cold front along a Temple to Fredericksburg to Rocksprings to Dryden line was sagging to the south early this morning. The front should stall along the Highway 90/I-10 corridor into the southern Edwards Plateau later today. A mid level trough and an upper level jet also approach from the west. With the Subtropical Ridge nearby and PWs near or slightly below seasonal normals, only isolated coverage is expected. The front dissipates or lifts north of our area early Friday, then the trough and jet move off to the east in the afternoon. There could be isolated showers along the Highway 77 corridor to the Coastal Plains on Friday ahead of the mid and upper level features.
A low pres system will move onshore into the NW USA tonight with a warm front forming over MT/SD and surging N. This area of low clouds is fcst to circulate N as the high departs to the E per the 18Z/00Z NAM and GFS.
The south winds will continue today as a trough develops off to the west. The south winds will continue to bring warm air advection, and with mixing the lows tonight will be fairly mild even with clear skies.
But increasing cloud coverage in SW Virginia to the Cumberland Plateau will cause high temperatures in those locations to be several degrees cooler than yesterday.
I made minor tweaks to overnight lows, to take them down where they are little to no clouds yet or where they were already near their lows (such as in some spots in the higher elevations of the Cascades). Overall tonight should be warmer than last night. Snow will remain a threat over the mountains and some of the higher valleys over the northern Cascades, if only mixed with rain.
339 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016 Surface observations and radar data indicate the cold front is still slowly moving through our far south and southeastern counties this morning. upper ridging is in place overhead currently. moisture above the cooler surface air and an increase in mid-level moisture from the west will mean skies should remain mostly cloudy today. Precipitation will end quickly from west to east on Friday with skies clearing by afternoon and temperatures quickly rebounding into the low to mid 80s. Upper ridging will build back in across much of the Southern U.
424 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016 Easily the coldest temps of the season so far with cold Canadian high pressure providing optimal conditions for radiational cooling this morning. weak isentropic ascent along a northward retreating warm front may be enough to squeeze out a few shwrs any maybe a few thunderstorms across southern portions of the fcst area.
400 AM EDT THU OCT 13 2016 A moisture-starved cold front will cross VA this afternoon and NC tonight. Canadian high pressure will follow and extend across the eastern U. The trailing portion of the front will stall across the TN Valley, as the upper forcing lifts well N and away from the Middle Atlantic states, while the ERN portion of the front will be driven SWD through VA/NC by following high pressure ridging E of the mountains.
High pressure will move eastward across the Central Plains with weak lee High Plains lee troughing forming in its wake. Lows for Friday will be warmer with the south winds continuing through the overnight.
323 AM MDT Thu Oct 13 2016 Upper level analysis has trof moving through the Great Lakes region, and ridge building across the Central and Northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure resides across Iowa with a weak lee trof across central Montana into eastern Wyoming. Upper ridge will continue to build across the Rocky Mountains and into the Northern Plains. Upper ridge remains across the area, with mostly clear skies expected. Upper ridge axis begins to shift east of the area as a strong trof moves into the Pacific Northwest.
349 AM EDT THU OCT 13 2016 A moisture-starved cold front will cross VA this afternoon and NC tonight. Canadian high pressure will follow and extend across the eastern U. The high pressure will be overhead by daybreak. Dew points were back up into the lower 60s over the wet Coastal Plain with upper 40s and 50s limited to the Piedmont.
229 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2016 A showery cold front will cross west to east across the region today. Behind the front, drier and cooler weather will follow tonight through the start of the weekend.
Zonal flow aloft will prevail today southeastern CONUS, with high pressure continuing to dominate this region. A very weak cold front is projected to sag southward into Alabama and Georgia by the afternoon and evening hours, but very dry air at mid-levels will continue to prevent any rain, or even a decent amount of cloud cover, from developing across our region.
317 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016 Easily the coldest temps of the season so far with cold Canadian high pressure providing optimal conditions for strong radiational cooling this morning. weak isentropic ascent along a northward retreating warm front may be enough to squeeze out a few shwrs any maybe a few thunderstorms across southern portions of the fcst area.