Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
936 AM EST MON DEC 7 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT AND PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND ON TUESDAY.
Upper trough axis will pass across the area during the day today. Expect temperatures to reach the lower to mid 70s this afternoon under mostly sunny skies.
Then more energy from the Pacific Northwest will reach the Plains and carve out another short wave trough on Tuesday.
AFTER A MILD DAY TODAY OUR FOCUS WILL BE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN/FREEZING RAIN TO THE AREA. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE CONSENSUS IS FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING MONDAY EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HOW MUCH FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR AS OPPOSED TO JUST RAIN GIVEN THE EXPECTED RISING TEMPERATURE TREND. ROAD TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE TO REMAIN JUST BELOW FREEZING EVEN IF AIR TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING TO SUPPORT THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT. AND WILL LET FURTHER SHIFTS EVALUATE SHOULD A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY BECOME NECESSARY.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR LIGHT WINDS. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES. 2 AM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CWA THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR CALM TO LIGHT WINDS. THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO BE KICKING IN WHICH MAY DELAY ANY POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING OF THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG. FOR NOW WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
A DEEP WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE STRETCHES WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE WAVY SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE CARRIES PULSES IN MOISTURE AND WIND SPEED. THESE PULSES CAN BE INFERRED BY THE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY ANALYSES FROM CIMSS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN THE LOW CLOUD PATTERN THIS MORNING ENDED UP BEING RATHER A LOT LIKE IT WAS YESTERDAY MORNING.
WITH A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND A WEAK RIDGE IN THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL BE APPROACHING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A BRIEF WINDOW OF CLEARING WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY -- BEFORE LOW STRATUS DECK SPREADS NEWD IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND VEER TO WSW LATE IN TAF PERIOD AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
620 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2015 LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING EAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY TONIGHT.
942 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2015 COLD FRONT THROUGH ALL OF CWA AS OF MID MORNING.
EVEN WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE AREA. A DEEP LAYER OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
930 AM MDT WED AUG 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ALOFT AND THE AIR MASS WILL WARM AND DRY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS.
PCPN BECOMING SO LIGHT THAT ARE LIKELY OVERSHOOTING SOME OF THE LOWER LEVELS/DRIZZLE FROM KBDE TO KFSE. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN COVERAGE/AMOUNTS AND WIND WITH THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. FRI LOOKS EVEN WARMER THAN THU AS SOUTH WINDS PICK UP DURING THE DAY. STILL LOOKS WARMER ACROSS THE WESTERN FA THAN INTO OUR MN FA. MODELS CURRENTLY KEEP ALL PCPN ACROSS WESTERN ND NEAR THE LOW FRI EVENING WHICH THEN SHIFTS INTO OUR WESTERN FA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
858 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2015 QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS THE LOW OVER MINNESOTA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST. THIS LOW WAS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING BEHIND THE LOW. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 70S.
/issued 433 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2015/ Currently, a cold front is located just north of the CWA and is pushing southward. Within the next couple of hours, the cold front is expected to enter the northern Permian Basin. Temperatures are quite a bit cooler behind the front so high temperatures for today will be reached this morning/early this afternoon just prior to frontal passage. The best chances for storms will be this afternoon mainly from the Lower Trans Pecos southward to the Davis Mountains where the greatest instability will be present. Rain chances will shift toward the Lower Trans Pecos by tonight with overnight lows cooling into the upper 50s to mid 60s across the area.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING NORTH TEXAS AND THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD ARRIVE TO AUSTIN/DEL RIO AROUND 04Z AND INTO SAN ANTONIO AROUND 06Z. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS. AN "UNSEASONABLY" STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS INTO EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO ONTARIO BY THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH NEARBY WILL ENHANCE THIS POTENTIAL.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST SITES AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
ALL THIS WILL YIELD TO A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN COVERAGE/AMOUNTS AND WIND WITH THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. FRI LOOKS EVEN WARMER THAN THU AS SOUTH WINDS PICK UP DURING THE DAY. STILL LOOKS WARMER ACROSS THE WESTERN FA THAN INTO OUR MN FA. MODELS CURRENTLY KEEP ALL PCPN ACROSS WESTERN ND NEAR THE LOW FRI EVENING WHICH THEN SHIFTS INTO OUR WESTERN FA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH A 100+ KNOT JET BROUGHT WIDESPREAD LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN OVERNIGHT. THE RAIN WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE WAVE AND TROUGH MOVE ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
WITH A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND A WEAK RIDGE IN THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL BE APPROACHING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL INCREASE SHRA AND TSRA ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING.
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. MAIN PLAYER DURING THIS PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT. WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING SHRA ALONG THE RIDGES BY THURSDAY EVENING.
1000 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2015 LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CURRENT WX PATTERN AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NRN PENINSULA REMAINS THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR CENTRAL FL. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO APALACHICOLA WILL GENERATE A LIGHT TO GENTLE S/SE BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC WATERS THIS AFTN/EVNG.
MORE ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT AS CONVECTION BEGINS TO DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS COURTESY OF A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD AND A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO SOUTH TEXAS. WITH 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED BOTH OVER THE FLORIDA AND BAJA PENINSULAS AND WEAK 500 MB INVERTED TROUGHINESS DIRECTLY OVER THE BRO CWFA. PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED INVERTED 500 MB TROUGH TRANSITIONS TO A CLOSED LOW AND MOVES DIRECTLY OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
THIS COOL/DRY SLUG OF AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW IS CURRENTLY MODIFYING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER W-CENTRAL WI THIS MORNING. THE COOL AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. AS THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT FROM W TO E TONIGHT SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER N-CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY NERN MN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S WITH A FEW UPPER 30S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW-LEVEL TEMPS COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
THERE IS SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE TO PROVIDE SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND THE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS.
1241 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKE TODAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
752 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKE TODAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
1007 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2015 A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
736 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2015 ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE WEEK WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ANY WIND THREAT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE NAM12 FEATURE SLIGHTLY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THAN THE GFS. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD FEATURE A LARGE TROUGH ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGRESSING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF RAIN TODAY BECAUSE OF THIS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY LOOK TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL. AS MUCH COOLER AN DRIER AIR SPILL INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.
THIS WOULD BE THE SOURCE OF ALL THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA AND THE REASON WHY TEMPERATURES ARE STAYING PRETTY STABLE IN THE LOW 80S AT THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
a dry cold front will help to cool temperatures back to near normal but bring increased winds with continued dry conditions. Synoptically a strong wave coming around the back side of a closed low over central Alberta is progged by the models to track from Central BC this morning into southeast BC this afternoon. This combined with the dry cold front passage in the late aft/eve will result in windy conditions. JW 18Z TAFS: A dry cold front will result in breezy to windy conditions at the TAF sites.
LOCAL GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE CLOUDS TOO WELL THIS MORNING BUT LATEST FORECAST UPDATE WILL TREND TOWARDS DECREASING CLOUD COVER TODAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW 90S. SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS TODAY GIVEN THE COOLER AND DRIER MID LEVEL CONDITIONS.
1017 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY.
516 AM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015 12Z TAF CYCLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SW COLORADO AT 12Z WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EWD THIS MORNING. A BACKDOOR SFC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NM.
726 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
THIS IS OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. EXPANDED THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 85 AFTER 21 UTC AS THE 09 AND 10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS DEVELOP ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING CENTRAL ND. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF A SLOWLY PROPAGATING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER CAVEAT LIMITING THE THREAT IS POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET.
BREEZY AND A LITTLE COOLER TODAY AND COOLER AGAIN SATURDAY AS UPPER TROUGH IN WRN CANADA SAGS SOUTH OVER OUR AREA. LOW AMPLITUDE WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN WESTERLY SATURDAY AS A VERY DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE PACNW AND IDAHO.
726 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 /ISSUED 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015/ MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS THE UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY AND JUST HOW MUCH THAT WILL AFFECT OUR CONVECTION. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND AND THE CWA IS ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE SO STILL EXPECT A DECENT AMOUNT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT AND THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE CWA. EVEN WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
1050 AM MDT FRI JUN 12 2015 BROAD TROUGHINESS LINGERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM THOUGH THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ANCHORED NEAR BERMUDA. THE WEAK DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MAINTAINED SHEATHS OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE COMBINATION OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN FRESH EAST BREEZES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. THE TROUGH WILL DAMPEN AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. BUT BECAUSE OF A FRESH EAST/SOUTHEAST BREEZE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST HIT 94 DEGREES.
1048 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
839 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND EXITS SATURDAY MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE WEST TODAY. WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND.
646 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 EXPANDED THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 85 AFTER 21 UTC AS THE 09 AND 10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS DEVELOP ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING CENTRAL ND. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF A SLOWLY PROPAGATING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER CAVEAT LIMITING THE THREAT IS POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET.
A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS THIS EVENING AND RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE OF A NORTHWEST TO NORTH DIRECTION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TEMPERATURES AND PCPN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND WITH SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. SLIGHT TIMING ISSUES WITH UPCOMING COLD FRONT OTHERWISE MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. AS MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SW WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER CANADA A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY ENTER ND BECOMING ORIENTED FROM N CENTRAL TO SW ND BY SAT MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING THROUGH WESTERN CANADA WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A DRY WESTERLY CYCLONIC FLOW. AND MARINE SURGES OF COOLER AIR WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME OF THE WIND EXPOSED RIDGES IN OUR MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY AS WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT INCREASE.
637 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2015 Cold front will continue to push into central and northeast Missouri through the morning with generally dry conditions moving in behind it for a few hours. More widespread rain and thunderstorms could develop later this evening and overnight when a low-level jet will nose into the region and interact with the slowly retreating warm front.
DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SEEMINGLY ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE GULF SOUTH OF LOUISIANA. TO THE EAST, DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIGHTLY ENHANCE COVERAGE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES VS WHAT WE WILL SEE AS YOU MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE DEEP RIDGE.
818 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE A SLOW SOUTHWARD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN PA AND WEAKENING.
723 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
300 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BROUGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO EASTERN KENTUCKY THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN AND BEGIN MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT. WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING US ONE MORE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY 17 OR 18Z AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INTERACTS WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
406 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT.
219 PM PDT TUE SEP 8 2015 As a weather system exits the area this evening high pressure will gradually build over Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho and allow for a warming and drying trend under sunny skies to run through the rest of the week. An upper ridge will begin to build into the region through Wednesday. The ridge axis will remain off the coast resulting in a continued northwest flow aloft which will allow mid and high clouds to pass through the region at times especially over northern Washington and Idaho. This will be especially true tonight and Wednesday before the ridge begins to amplify Wed ngt shunting most of the clouds north and east of the region.
246 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015 Surface cold front pushing into far northeast Oklahoma as of mid afternoon.
245 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015 Convection is currently developing in the higher elevations west of the Pecos River, and to our north along a weak front that is currently located near Lubbock.
A PASSING WEAK WARM FRONT MAY STILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A STRAY SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA STARTING WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ON TRACK TO BUILD OVER THE AREA STARTING WEDNESDAY AND LINGERING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DUE TO A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS ONE SYSTEM IN PARTICULAR WHICH WILL IMPACT OUR LOCAL WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. IT HAS HELPED SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM THE CHICAGO AREA SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER BETWEEN WICHITA FALLS AND CHILDRESS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION.
PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED OUR FORECAST AREA LAST NIGHT FURTHER DOWN INTO MISSOURI. BUT OTHERWISE DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT AND THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. ALONG WITH WINDS GOING NEARLY CALM AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA APPROACHES PARTICULARLY IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. CURRENT NRN CONUS MEAN TROUGH WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE AND AMPLIFY WITH TIME. THIS WILL BRING IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS. PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THU NIGHT LEADING TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AS FLOW AMPLIFIES. THIS WILL BRING A DECIDEDLY COOLER AIRMASS IN SHARP CONTRAST TO THE END OF LAST WEEK. 08/18Z SURFACE COLD FRONT AND SWATH OF SHRA/TSRA HAVE MOVED SOUTH INTO MISSOURI.
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH ALL OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST JUST A BIT RESULTING IN A SLIGHT RISE IN HEIGHTS WHICH WILL LEND ITSELF TO TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL CREATE SOME OF THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.
143 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
305 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015 A slow cold front is moving through the forecast area tonight and plenty of precipitation has formed out ahead of the boundary. Overnight lows will drop considerably cooler in the extreme NW with access to a cooler air mass. The cold front should progress to near I-70 by sunrise Wed morning, with ongoing showers and storms expected in our southeast counties at sunrise. Cooler and drier air arriving on Wed behind the front will set the stage for much cooler conditions the rest of the week.
123 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
615 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND CURRENTLY EXTENDS ALONG A MILWAUKEE TO LUDINGTON LINE. SHOWERS AND A FEW GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS AND END TO OUR STRING OF HOT AND HUMID DAYS.
GFS SHOWS A PROMINENT COLD TROUGH FORMING OVER THE WEST COAST STATES BY NEXT TUESDAY. BUT OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO NOT SHOW A DEEP TROUGH. IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS PACIFIC TROUGH.
148 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
Today's warmer afternoon temperatures and less precipitation should allow the ground to dry a bit.
140 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MODELED SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES.
242 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015 LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF WHEELER SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR CLAUDE. POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE COOLER BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY TO MID SEPTEMBER.
331 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COOLER WEATHER INTO THIS WEEKEND. PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL THEN TRANSLATE SLOWLY SE THROUGH THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A WELCOMED SHOT OF COOLER AIR AND DECENT RAIN/ISO THUNDER CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE.
354 PM MDT TUE SEP 8 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS NW FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES AND OVER OUR CWA ON WESTERN EXTENT OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH. EARLY IN THE EVENING STEEP LAPSE RATES LEE TROUGH REBUILDS ALONG KS/CO BORDER OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINING HIGH BL MOISTURE IN PLACE. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED SOUTH OF LOUISIANA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE WEST TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING AND EVENTUALLY SHEARING APART.